FEWS NET Zimbabwe

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the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States 

Government

ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook January to June 2015

Acute food insecurity is stable but production is likely to be affected by the late start of the season, 

flooding, and dry spells 

KEY MESSAGES

 The food security situation is stable across the 

country, including traditionally cereal deficit 

areas in the south and western parts of the 

country. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food 

insecurity outcomes are projected from January 

through June since most households are still 

consuming cereals from the previous season, 

while some are supplementing this food with 

market purchases or in-kind payment for casual 

labor activities.

 Average national maize grain prices are 23 

percent below last year’s levels and projected to 

be stable when compared to the two-year 

average. This is a result of lower market demand 

for staple food since most households are still 

consuming staple food from the previous harvest.

 The season started nearly three weeks late, and 

this was followed by abnormal dryness in the 

northern parts of the country. By December, 

heavy rainfall in the north resulted in localized 

flooding, damaging crops, and food stocks for 

some households. According to UN estimates, 

about 500 of the 1,200 households impacted by the flooding are in urgent need of assistance. 

NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Current Situation

 Households across all wealth groups are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes. 

The majority of households including the poor are consuming staple food from last year’s harvest and a few are 

supplementing this with market purchases, especially in the southern and western parts of the country. Some households 

facing staple shortages and have no cash for market purchases are also supplementing through in-kind payment of onfarm casual labor activities that include land preparation, planting and weeding. 

 A slight rise in demand for cereals has resulted in a 12 percent increase in maize grain price between November and 

December. However, compared to both the same time last year and the two year average, current prices have decreased 

by 24 and 15 percent, respectively. Locally produced maize meal is readily available from private millers in the market 

and the price is stable when compared to both same time last year and the two-year average. The Grain Marketing Board 

(GMB) is also selling maize meal at prices that are comparable to the private market prices. 

Current food security outcomes, January 2015.

Source: FEWS NET

This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency 

decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit here for 

more on this scale.
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook January to June 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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 On-farm activities, including land preparation, planting, and weeding are ongoing in all provinces. This has increased 

incomes for some households through on-farm casual labor opportunities. Insufficient rainfall and abnormal dryness in 

October and November contributed to the 2-3 week 

delayed start of the season, particularly in the northern 

areas, and a slow start of agriculture related income 

earning activities. 

 Above-normal rainfall starting in December, resulted in 

localized flooding in Mashonaland West, Mashonaland 

East, Mashonaland Central, and Manicaland Provinces 

leading to leaching and destruction of early planted 

crops. The government is monitoring any Armyworm 

problems in Mashonaland Provinces following an 

outbreak during the first week of January in Mbire, Mt 

Darwin, and Muzarabani districts in Mashonaland 

Central Province.

 Southern parts of the country including parts of 

Matebeleland South, Matebeleland North, and 

Masvingo are currently experiencing mid-season dry 

spells and crops are already showing signs of moisture 

stress. A continuation of these conditions into February 

could lead to wilting.

 Agriculture inputs are available on the market and 

through the government agriculture input scheme. The 

majority of the farmers are accessing agriculture inputs 

through purchases in retails shops at district markets. 

Prices for maize seed are approximately 20 percent 

above last year’slevel at most of the monitored markets. 

 Livestock is in good condition and there has been an 

improvement of pastures in most of the areas due to 

heavy rains that were received in December. A localized 

outbreak of foot and mouth disease was reported in 

some districts in Masvingo and Matabeleland South 

Provinces. Farmers interviewed, including in the 

southern parts of the country, are expecting an increase 

in incomes from livestock sales including goats and 

sheep.

 Government safety-net programs are ongoing in 21 

targeted districts, assisting the most vulnerable and 

labor constrained households through the harmonized 

social cash transfer program that provides a monthly 

cash distribution of between USD 15-25 dollars. The 

World Food Program (WFP) is also implementing the 

Disaster response and risk reduction (Conditional Lean Season Assistance) targeting seasonally food-insecure vulnerable 

households.

Projected food security outcomes, January to March 2015.

 

 Source: FEWS NET

Projected food security outcomes, April to June 2015.

Source: FEWS NET

This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency 

decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit here for 

more on this scale.
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook January to June 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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Assumptions

The January to June food security outlook report is informed by the following national and sub-national assumptions: 

 Staple food availability: From January through March, staple food supplies from the previous harvest are expected to 

be available at the household level. In addition to these supplies households will have access to cereals through market 

purchases and in-kind 

payment for casual labor

activities. The majority of 

market purchases are mainly 

expected in the cereal deficit 

areas including the south and 

western parts of the country. 

Although the start of the green 

harvest is expected to be later

due to delayed start of the 

season, access to green 

harvests are expected in March 

and will reduce household 

reliance on market purchases. 

Early crop harvests 

(particularly maize) is expected 

to start towards the end of 

March. This season’s harvest is 

expected to provide adequate 

cereals for most households 

across the country for the 

remainder of the outlook 

period (April-June).

 Staple food prices: Staple food will be readily available in the markets and available from both private millers and the 

GMB depots. For districts in the south, markets will likely have an increase in maize meal supplies from neighboring 

countries during the peak of the lean season (January-March) due to increased demand. FEWS-NET’s price projections

using both the fundamental and technical analysis indicates that maize grain prices during the peak of the lean season

will be 13 percent below last year’s prices and will remain stable when compared to the two-year average. Between April 

and June maize grain prices are projected to continue to be stable. This price trend is expected due to higher carry-over 

cereal supplies when compared to previous years. Based on discussions with traders in markets in the south the price of 

sorghum will be 15 percent below last year’s prices level. Maize meal prices are projected to remain stable throughout

the scenario period. 

 Season forecast: The forecast from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Climate Services Center 

indicates that the southern half of the country will likely receive normal to below-normal rains from January through 

March. This increased chance of normal to below-normal rains in the southern half of the country will likely result in an 

early end to the season or increased chances of dry spells. Since mid- January, these areas have not received significant 

rains and based on the soil water index, crops are already showing signs of moisture stress (Figure 2). The northern half 

of the country has increased chances of receiving normal to above-normal rains from January through March. Some of 

the areas in the northern parts of the country will likely be affected by localized flooding including in the Zambezi valley.

Figure 1. National average maize grain prices.

 Source: FEWS NET

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0.10

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0.40

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0.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Price per kg in USD$

5-year average 2013 2014 2015 projections
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook January to June 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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 Casual labor availability and rates: Labor opportunities including land preparation and planting are likely to be the main 

income sources for very poor households from January through March. Agriculture inputs can be accessed through the 

Government Input Scheme and local supply stores. However the 20 percent increase in seed prices will likely result in a 

slight reduction of cropped land for those households that need to purchase seed, and this in the long-run could result 

in a slight decrease in casual labor opportunities. Weeding will be the main activity for causal labor from January through 

March while harvesting will provide most causal labor incomes for the second half of the scenario period from April 

through June. Discussions with famers in the south and western areas indicates that casual labor rates are likely to 

increase by between 15 to 20 percent during this period. Availability of labor activities will likely be reduced in some 

areas in the northern parts of the country due to the excessive rains that will result in flooding and leaching of the soils. 

The southern half of the country could have a decrease in casual labor activities and incomes from April through June 

due to the forecast for normal to below-normal rains in these areas. 

 Livestock: Normal to 

above-normal rains 

received in most parts of 

the country in December 

and January are expected 

to improve pasture 

conditions across the 

country, including those 

areas expected to receive 

below-average rainfall for 

the remainder of the 

season. Livestock 

conditions are therefore 

expected to be good 

across the country. 

Because of the heavy 

rainfall received in 

December and January, 

there are increased

chances of an outbreak of 

livestock diseases

including Heartwater in 

most areas, particularly in 

areas that received above normal rains. Income from cattle and goat sales are likely to be 50 and 6 percent, respectively,

above the reference1 period. 

 Social-Safety Nets: WFP will be implementing conditional lean season assistance during the peak period of the lean 

season. This assistance targets the most vulnerable households. Funding constraints will likely reduce WFP coverage in 

terms of both targeted population and the number of districts to be supported. The Government is also expected to 

continue implementing the harmonized cash transfer support to labor constrained, food insecure, and vulnerable 

households in 21 districts (assisting 10-20 percent of the population). The USAID funded Development Food Assistance 

program implemented through the Amalima and ENSURE projects is expected to continue operating in Masvingo, 

Manicaland, and Matebeland South Provinces.

 

1 Reference year: a recent year when conditions were neither exceptionally bad nor exceptionally good. In this reports, 2009 is

considered as the reference year. 

Figure 2. Soil Water Index for maize in the 2014/15 season on January 20, 2015.

 Source: FEWS NET/USGS
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook January to June 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Most households including the very poor are likely to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes from January 

through June. Very poor households are expected to supplement own production cereal stocks from the previous harvest 

with market purchases January through March. Households without enough income will also access staple food through inkind payment of on-farm causal labor activities. The delayed green harvest will likely provide an alternative source of food to 

households with food deficits from March onwards. The main harvest is expected from April through June and will likely 

provide sufficient levels of cereal stocks for household consumption across all districts in the country, including the southwestern areas. Household food consumption should improve along with greater food diversity from April to June. Typical onfarm casual labor activities including land preparation, planting, and weeding will be the main income sources for the very 

poor households and payment will likely be through in-kind means. 

AREAS OF CONCERN

Beitbridge South Western Lowveld Communal Livelihood (BSWLC) zone covering Matabeleland South Province 

(Beitbridge, Gwanda, Mangwe, and Matobo districts), and Masvingo Provinces (Chiredzi district)

Current Situation

 The food security situation is stable as the majority 

of the households including the very poor are still 

consuming staple from own production with some 

supplementing this food with market purchases. 

The increased cereal production from the previous 

season, which was 25 percent above reference 

year, has contributed to the stability in food 

security outcomes situation in the zone. 

 Maize grain and small grains are readily available in 

the markets, at prices that are below last year‘s 

levels. Maize grain prices from the six main markets 

in the livelihood zone are currently 10 percent 

below the two-year and the five-year averages and 

25 percent below the reference year. This is due to 

higher supplies of staple food from the previous 

season and the availability of maize meal from 

private millers and the government’s GMB. 

 Improved pasture conditions have improved 

livestock conditions and there are no reports of 

livestock disease outbreaks in the livelihood zone. 

Cattle and goat prices have increased by an average 

of 50 and 6 percent, respectively when compared to the reference period. Chicken is the mostly commonly sold livestock 

to meet households’ needs including health and other expenses. Chicken prices have also expected to increase by 20 

percent when compared to reference year.

 The Government Harmonized Social Cash Transfer Program (HSCT) activities are ongoing in Mangwe district, targeting 

about 10 percent of the most vulnerable households.

Figure 3. Livelihood zone of concern.

 Source: FEWS NET

Beitbridge South Western Lowveld Communal  ́
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook January to June 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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Assumptions

In addition to the national assumptions described above, the following assumptions have been made about BSWLC livelihood 

zone: 

 Households are expected to continue consuming food-stocks from their previous harvest and sometimes supplementing 

this food through casual labor (in-kind) and market purchases. In the local market, maize grain prices are projected to be 

approximately 12 and 9 percent below the five-year and the two-year averages, respectively, between January and June.

The behavior of cereal prices is expected to follow season trends, with increases expected in January and February when 

household tend to rely more on market purchases. Cereal prices are expected to start decreasing from March to June 

because of the start of both the green and main harvests, resulting in reduced household reliance on market purchases. 

 On-farm casual labor opportunities are likely to slightly decrease between January and June based on normal to belownormal rainfall forecasts for the area. 

Other income sources for the very poor households, including the sale of small livestock, will follow season trends, 

increasing between January and February as some very poor households rely more on market purchases. 

 Social safety-net programs are expected to continue in the BSWLC zone by targeting the most vulnerable households. 

This programming includes the Harmonized Social Cash Transfer Program (HSCT) in Mangwe district. In this district the 

HSCT is targeting about 2,000 most vulnerable households between January and June. The Government is also expected 

to distribute agriculture inputs to communal farmers in this livelihood zone. 

 The level of remittances from family and friends is expected to decrease between January and June due to limited 

employment opportunities in neighboring South Africa. Household interviews in this zone indicate that the level of 

remittances will be about 20 percent lower than the reference year. 

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Most households in BSWLC are likely to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes from January 

through June. Households in the zone (including the very poor) will have access to staple food from the previous harvest and 

some will be supplementing this food with market purchases to cover their needs from January through March. Market 

purchases by households are expected to increase during the lean period from January through March. The availability of 

green harvest in March though slightly later than normal will improve household consumption and reduce reliance on market 

purchases. The main harvest is expected from April onwards and will likely further reduce demand and reliance on local 

markets because most households will be consuming staple cereal from their own production. Government safety-net 

programming and humanitarian support from external partners will contribute to maintaining the Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food 

insecurity outcomes during the scenario period.

EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.

Area Event Impact on food security outcomes

The entire 

country

South Africa increases 

employment permit 

restrictions.

This is likely to result in reduced remittances from South Africa, 

particularly in the southern areas of the country.

The northern 

parts of the 

country 

Further flooding events. The forecasted normal to above-normal rainfall in the northern half of 

the country is likely to result in increased chances of flooding is some 

areas. This could adversely impact crop performance, leading to a 

reduced harvest.
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook January to June 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, 

and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes those assumptions in the context of current conditions and local 

livelihoods to develop scenarios estimating food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. Click here for 

more information.