# South Sudan

Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes remain widespread as flooding expands

                                  - Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes remain widespread in the country at peak of the main rainfall season in September driven by a combination of shocks including expanding floods, deteriorating macroeconomy, extremely high food prices, continued conflict and insecurity, and high returnee burden in the northern counties. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes are likely persisting among some households in hard-to-reach areas of Pibor; among returnees and refugees in transit areas including in Renk, Rubkona, and Aweil East, and likely among some displaced households in the most severely flood-affected areas of Jonglei, Unity, Warrap, and in parts of Upper Nile and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. 
                                  - The cumulative rainfall for the June to September rainy season remains largely average in most parts of South Sudan, with pockets of below-average rainfall, under continued ENSO neutral conditions. Below-average rainfall was observed in western parts of Western Equatoria, southern Wau of Western Bahr el Ghazal, Gogrial of Warrap, northern Unity and parts of eastern Upper Nile (10-15 percent below normal). Nonetheless, field information confirmed moderate to high rainfall was received during August and has provided good growing conditions for crops in some areas, while causing severe flooding in others. As of September, global forecasting models now anticipate that La Niña will emerge in October and likely to result in above average rainfall.
                                  - The heavy rains in August and early September resulted in flooding that damaged homes, critical infrastructure, and crop fields; displaced over  65,0000 people  and disrupted livelihoods; and disrupted health services, increasing the risk of disease outbreaks. As of September 12, OCHA estimated that flooding had affected  735,000 people  in 38 counties. Of particular concern are the low-lying and flood-prone areas in Unity, Upper Nile, Jonglei, Lakes, Warrap, Western Bahr el Ghazal, Abyei Administrative Area, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. In response to these recent floods, the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) has allocated 10 million USD to provide multi-sectoral assistance to the flood-affected in five of the most severely affected counties so far – Aweil East, Mayendit, Fangak, Nasir, and Rubkona – where large populations were displaced, crop lands submerged, and road are becoming increasingly impassable.    
                                  - For cropland not affected by flooding, satellite-based monitoring information indicates average to very good  cropping condition s across the cropping zones. In unimodal areas, maize crops are in  maturation stage  in southern cropping zones and reproductive stages in other areas in the country. This is corroborated by key informant information which indicate maize crops are at maturation and harvesting in Pibor (Jebel Boma). Key informants also report that infestation by millipedes in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, especially in Aweil North, is significantly impacting crop growth. Meanwhile in bimodal areas, harvesting of first season crops is nearly complete in most areas except for late planted crops that are in late maturity, while planting of additional main season crops is ongoing. While quantitative data on flood-induced crop losses are not yet available, various Interagency Rapid Needs Assessments (IRNA) conducted in flood-affected counties confirmed crop damage by flood. This is likely to impact the overall harvest in 2024 production year. 
                                  - Livestock production and pasture conditions have improved in pastoral and agropastoral zones, except in flood-affected areas of Jonglei, Unity, and Warrap where pasture and browse are submerged. In these areas, most livestock herds have moved to higher ground. Field monitoring information indicates livestock and pasture conditions are fair to good in Leer, Fashoda, Torit, Pibor, Greater Kapoeta, and Duk. This is further corroborated by satellite-based analysis of  vegetative conditions  which indicate average to above average in most pastoral and agropastoral zones, except in north-western Jonglei and Unity where the vegetation conditions are below average likely due to floodwater. Key informants report that livestock are currently mostly near homesteads and providing milk for consumption in livestock-owning households. 
                                  - Conflict and insecurity incidents remain generally low compared to that observed earlier in 2024, although the overall security situation remain volatile and unpredictable. In particular, the deteriorating economic conditions and rising cost of living continues to drive up incidents of armed criminality and banditry. Moreover, sporadic cattle-raids, road ambushes, and localized tensions continued to occur, affecting household livelihoods. After relative calm in Western Equatoria, tensions are re-emerging between the SSPDF and SPLM/A-IO forces as well as between the Azande and Balanda communities. In Bor South,  11 chiefs  were arrested in early September following clashes over fishing rights at an island in Baidit  Payam . Over the same period,  three cattle traders  were ambushed and injured between Twic East and Bor County’s Jalle Payam, affecting the movement of trade flows from Bor South to Panyagor market of Twic East.In Yei of Central Equatoria, abductions and road ambushes continued along the major roads, including Yei-Maridi, Yei-Kaya, and Yei-Lasu roads, threatening lives and livelihoods and assistance delivery. Meanwhile, at the national level, on September 13, the Presidency announced the  extension of the transitional period  for an additional two years, delaying the elections to December 2026. 
                                  - The ongoing war in Sudan has continued to displace more people into South Sudan, adding to the 2 million protracted internally displaced people and the newly flood-displaced. As of September 9, nearly 800,000 returnees and refugee have crossed into South Sudan. Of this, 76 percent are South Sudanese returnees who have joined their relatives or opted to remain in the border counties of northern Upper Nile, northern Unity, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. 
                                  - The economic conditions have remained very severe in September with rising cost of living and significant decline in household purchasing capacity. The SSP depreciation has reached a record-high in September, trading at 5,000 SSP per USD, losing 383 percent of its value compared to same time in 2023 on the parallel markets and nearly 200 percent on the official market. As such the cost of living as expressed by cost of  minimum expenditure basket (CMEB ) in August 2024 were 43, 156, and 173 percent higher than in February 2024—prior to rupture of the main oil pipeline—in Central Equatoria, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Western Bahr el Ghazal, respectively, and was 77, 221, and 288 percent higher relative to the same period one year ago (August 2023) in the same states, respectively. 
                                  - WFP continues to face numerous challenges including significant funding gaps, heavy rains, limited aircraft, insecurity, and delayed arrival of supplies into the country. Despite these challenges, WFP and partners are providing humanitarian food assistance via various modalities to multiple vulnerable groups including the food insecure, ongoing flood victims, and returnees and refugees fleeing the war in Sudan. According to WFP’s bi-weekly update for the period August 26 – September 8, the lean season response has already concluded in five counties (Rumbek North, Cueibet, Kapoeta North, Kapoeta South, and Twic East) out of 39 and expects to conclude in the rest by mid-September. As of this reporting, approximately 845,000 people had been reached in August, 43 percent of the target for the month. From mid-September to November, WFP and partners plan to activate flood response assistance and target 1.2 million flood-affected people. Given the anticipated high humanitarian needs, the United States announced on September 11  100 million USD  additional funding for South Sudan.  
                                  - While not the most likely scenario, FEWS NET maintains that  Famine (IPC Phase 5)  would occur if severe flooding combined with conflict dynamics isolates households from accessing typical food and income sources, including assistance, for a prolonged period of time. Based on historical analyses of flood patterns and current rainfall and river level forecasts, projections by FEWS NET’s science partners at NOAA and USGS anticipate severe flooding to peak in October/November and likely extend into early 2025. At the same time, conflict incidences are expected to periodically occur, disrupting access and displacing households. As such, flood- and conflict-prone areas in north-central Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei, as well as low-lying areas and within the Sudd wetlands, remain of highest concern, particularly areas with high burden of returnees; FEWS NET continues to closely monitor the impacts of ongoing flooding and/or conflict on crop and livestock losses; restrictions on population mobility and humanitarian access that would lead to population isolation; and the likely spread of diseases and its impact on acute malnutrition.

Concurrent shocks drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) amid worsening floods

Worsening economic conditions amid impending flooding drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4)

Forecasted severe flooding elevates the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in flood-prone areas

South Sudan Price Bulletin

South Sudan Price Bulletin

South Sudan Price Bulletin

Concurrent shocks drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) amid worsening floods

Worsening economic conditions amid impending flooding drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4)

Forecasted severe flooding elevates the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in flood-prone areas

South Sudan Price Bulletin

South Sudan Price Bulletin

South Sudan Price Bulletin

South Sudan (June 2023 - January 2024)

South Sudan Acute Food Insecurity Classification (February 2021 - September 2021)

Current (February 2021) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (February 2021 - May 2021) and medium term (June 2021 - September 2021) periods.

South Sudan Acute Food Insecurity Classification (September 2024 - January 2025)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (September 2024) and medium term (October 2024 - January 2025) periods.

South Sudan Acute Food Insecurity Classification (August 2024 - January 2025)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (August 2024 - September 2024) and medium term (October 2024 - January 2025) periods.

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.