Appendix A 

Reasons for Scheduling the 

Environmental Analysis of the 

Central Kupreanof Timber 

Harvest 
Appendix A 

Table of Contents 

Introduction.............................................................................................. 1 

How does the Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest fit into the Tongass 

Timber Sale Program? ............................................................................. 2 

Why is Timber from the Tongass National Forest Being Offered for 

Sale?......................................................................................................... 3 

How Does the Forest Service Develop Forecasts about Future Timber 

Market Demand?...................................................................................... 7 

What Steps Must Be Completed to Prepare a Sale for Offer?............... 12 

How Does the Forest Service Maintain an Orderly and Predictable 

Timber Sale Program? ........................................................................... 13 

How Does the Forest Service Decide Where Timber Harvest Projects 

should be Located? ................................................................................ 17 

Conclusion ............................................................................................. 20 

References.............................................................................................. 22 
Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A  1 

Reasons for Scheduling the 

Environmental Analysis of the 

Central Kupreanof Timber 

Harvest Project Area 

Introduction 

Coordinated timber sale planning is essential for meeting the goals of 

the Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan (Forest Plan) and to 

provide an orderly flow of timber to local industry. To determine the 

volume of timber to offer each year, the Forest Service can look to 

current market conditions and the level of industry operations. 

However, the planning process for timber harvest projects requires the 

Forest Service to rely on projections of future harvest levels to decide 

how many timber sale projects to begin each year. This document 

explains how the Forest Service uses information about future markets 

and past experience with timber sale planning to determine the volume 

of timber that needs to be started through this process each year. This 

appendix relies heavily on the current annual timber demand analysis 

and the most recent timber sale schedule. 

The purpose of this appendix is two-fold: first, to explain why this 

project was selected for inclusion into the Tongass Timber Program and 

second, to explain the basis and components of the Tongass Timber 

program. To accomplish this, the following questions are answered: 

- How does the Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest project fit 

into the Tongass Timber Sale Program? 

- Why is timber from the Tongass National Forest being offered 

for sale? 

- How does the Forest Service develop forecasts about future 

timber market demand? 

- What steps must be completed to prepare a sale for offer? 

- How does the Forest Service maintain an orderly and 

predictable timber sale program? 

- How does the Forest Service decide where timber sale projects 

should be located? 
Appendix A 

2 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

How does the Central Kupreanof Timber 

Harvest fit into the Tongass Timber Sale 

Program? 

This project is currently in Gate 2, Project Analysis and Design (See 

Forest Service Handbook 2409.18, Chapter 30 and subsequent 

discussion about the Gate System) and involves environmental analysis 

and public disclosure as required by the National Environmental Policy 

Act (NEPA). The amount of volume considered for harvest under the 

action alternatives for the Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest ranges 

from 70.2 MMBF to 28.2 MMBF, with harvest potentially beginning in 

2009. This volume would contribute to the Tongass timber sale 

program. A no-action alternative is also analyzed in this EIS. If an 

action alternative is selected in the decision for this project, this volume 

will be added to the volume available for sale. As displayed in Table A2, the goal for volume under analysis on the Tongass National Forest is 

299 MMBF. Currently, the forest-wide volume under analysis is about 

300 MMBF and includes the volume for this project. 

 This project contributes to the timber sale program planning objective 

of providing an orderly flow of timber from planning through harvest to 

meet timber supply requirements. A position statement (Gate 1) was 

completed to document that this project warrants additional investment 

of funds and personnel. Therefore, it is reasonable to be conducting the 

environmental analysis for this project at this time. 

This project meets all laws and regulations governing the removal of 

timber from National Forest System lands, including Forest Service 

policies as described in Forest Service manuals and handbooks, and the 

Forest Plan and Record of Decision. Based on current year and 

anticipated future timber demand, and the timber supply provisions of 

the Tongass Timber Reform Act, the Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest 

is needed at this time to meet timber sale needs identified on the 

approved multiple-year timber sale plan. Anticipated budget allocations 

and resources are sufficient to prepare and offer this project for sale as 

scheduled. 

Areas are selected for environmental analysis for timber harvest projects 

for a variety of reasons. The reasons this project was considered in this 

area include: 

• The Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest Project Area contains 

sufficient acres of suitable and available forest land to make this timber 

harvest proposal reasonable. Areas with available timber need to be 

considered for harvest in order to seek to provide a supply of timber 

Why is This Project 

Occurring in This 

Location? 
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 3 

from the Tongass National Forest which (1) meets the annual market 

demand from such forest, and (2) meets the market demand from such 

forest for each planning cycle, pursuant to Section 101 of the Tongass 

Timber Reform Act (TTRA). The WAAs within this project area have 

had low levels of past harvest. 

• The Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest will use many existing roads to 

provide access to many of the proposed timber harvest units, and to 

transport harvested logs. 

• The Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest project will use the existing 

and currently permitted LTF at Little Hamilton Bay. 

•There was local interest in timber sale opportunities. 

•The majority of the project area and proposed harvest units are within 

the Timber Production land use designation. 

• The Central Kupreanof project area is completely within Phase 1 lands 

as identified by the Timber Adaptive Management Strategy in the 2008 

Forest Plan Record of Decision. 

• Effects on subsistence resources from timber harvest are projected to 

have few differences based on the sequence in which areas are 

harvested. Harvesting other areas with available timber on the Tongass 

National Forest is expected to have similar potential effects on 

resources, including subsistence resources, because of widespread 

distribution of subsistence use and other factors. Harvest within other 

areas is foreseeable under the Forest Plan. 

In conclusion, this project area can provide a mixture of uses in 

compliance with the laws that govern National Forest management and 

be consistent with current Forest Direction. 

Why is Timber from the Tongass 

National Forest Being Offered for Sale? 

On a national level, the legislative record is clear about the role of the 

timber program in the multiple-use mandate of the national forests. One 

of the original objectives for creation of national forests was to provide 

natural resources, including timber, for the American public. The 

Organic Administration Act of 1897 (partially repealed in 1976) directed 

the agency to manage the forests in order to "improve and protect the 

forest ... [and] for the purpose of securing favorable conditions of water 

flows, and to furnish a continuous supply of timber for the use and 

necessities of the citizens of the United States" (emphasis added). The 

Multiple-Use Sustained Yield Act of 1960 directs the Forest Service to 

administer federal lands for “outdoor recreation, range, timber, 

watershed, and wildlife and fish purposes.” 

The National Forest Management Act (NFMA) of 1976 states that “the 

Secretary of Agriculture...may sell, at not less than appraised value, 

National Legislation 
Appendix A 

4 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

trees, portions of trees, or forest products located on National Forest 

System Lands.” Although the heart of the Act is the land management 

planning process for national forests, the Act also sets policy direction 

for timber management and public participation in Forest Service 

decision making. Under NFMA, the Forest Service was directed to 

“limit the sale of timber from each national forest to a quantity equal to 

or less than a quantity which can be removed from such forest annually 

in perpetuity on a sustained-yield basis.” 

The NFMA directs the Forest Service to complete land management 

plans for all units of the National Forest System. Forest plans are 

developed by an interdisciplinary team to provide for the coordination of 

outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed, wildlife and fish, and 

wilderness. Forest plans designate areas of national forest where 

different management activities and uses are considered appropriate 

including those areas suitable for timber harvest. 

Timber from the Tongass National Forest is being offered for sale as 

part of the multiple-use mission of the Forest Service identified in the 

public laws guiding the agency. In addition, Alaska-specific legislation 

and the Tongass Forest Plan direct the Forest Service to seek to provide 

timber to meet market demand, subject to certain limitations. 

The Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) and 

the Tongass Timber Reform Act (TTRA) provide direction on the issue 

of Tongass timber supply. Section 101 of TTRA amended the ANILCA 

timber supply mandate and fixed budget appropriations and replaced 

them with the following text in Section 705 (a): 

“Sec. 705. (a) Subject to appropriations, other applicable law, and 

the requirements of the National Forest Management Act of 1976 

(P.L. 94-588); except as provided in subsection (d) of this section, 

the Secretary shall, to the extent consistent with providing for the 

multiple use and sustained yield of all renewable forest resources, 

seek to provide a supply of timber from the Tongass National Forest 

which (1) meets the annual market demand for timber from such 

forest and (2) meets the annual market demand from such forest for 

each planning cycle.” 

The Tongass Land Management Plan was completed in 1979 and 

revised in 1997. The Record of Decision (ROD) for the 2008 Tongass 

Land Management Plan Amendment (Forest Plan) was signed by the 

Alaska Regional Forester January 23, 2008. The Forest Plan 

incorporates new resource information and scientific studies and reflects 

an extensive public involvement process. The 2008 Forest Plan defines 

appropriate activities within each of 19 Land Use Designations (LUDs). 

Approximately 79 percent of the Tongass was allocated to LUDs where 

scheduled commercial timber harvest is not allowed. The 2008 Forest 

Plan establishes the annual average Allowable Sale Quantity (ASQ, the 

Alaska-Specific 

Legislation 

Tongass National 

Forest Land and 

Resource 

Management Plan 

(Forest Plan, as 

amended) 
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 5 

maximum amount of timber that may be offered for sale) at 267 million 

board feet (MMBF). This is the same as the ASQ established for the 

previous Forest Plan in 1997. While technically a limit on sale volume, 

in effect the ASQ also limits the amount of timber that may be harvested 

on the Tongass National Forest. 

The environmental effects analysis in the Final EIS for the 2008 Forest 

Plan assumed the maximum timber harvest allowed under each 

alternative would occur annually over the next 100 to 150 years. In that 

way, the Forest Plan analysis displayed the maximum environmental 

effects that could be reasonably foreseen. However, substantially less 

timber volume and acres have actually been harvested over the last 

several years than the maximum level allowed under the 1997 Forest 

Plan (see Figure A-1). Thus, the effects on resources are expected to be 

less than projected in the 2008 Final EIS for the Forest Plan 

Amendment. 

Figure A-1 

 Tongass Timber Harvest, Fiscal Years 2001-2007 

47.8 46.0

18.7

50.8 49.6

33.8

43.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

 Timber Harvest - mmbf per year

The Record of Decision for the 2008 Forest Plan Amendment includes 

transition language for projects that were being planned when the Forest 

Plan was completed. That language identifies 3 different categories of 

projects, depending on how far along they were in the project planning 

process when the Forest Plan Amendment was completed, and specifies 

the extent to which projects in each category must comply with the 

amended Forest Plan. The transition language lists this project as being 

in Category 2, which requires the Forest Supervisor to review the project 

and incorporate the new direction in the amended Forest Plan to the 

extent this can be done without causing major disruptions in the 

implementation of the project. Information on the inclusion of the 2008 

direction is included as appropriate in the Central Kupreanof Draft EIS 

and will be included in the decision. 
Appendix A 

6 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

Timber Sale Program Adaptive Management Strategy 

To further balance the competing demands and respond to requests for 

additional protection of roadless areas, the Record of Decision for the 

2008 Forest Plan Amendment also approved the Timber Sale Program 

Adaptive Management Strategy. The Strategy is based on three critical 

factors: 

1. The long-term demand for timber from the Tongass is 

inherently very uncertain, and is influenced by the ability of all 

interested parties to work together to stabilize the timber supply. 

2. The annual average ASQ of 267 MMBF is considerably 

higher than the current level of timber harvest on the Tongass. 

3. The land base associated with the ASQ includes roadless 

areas, many of which are highly valued by substantial portions of 

the public. 

Under the Timber Sale Program Adaptive Management Strategy, actual 

operation of the timber sale program will be implemented in three 

phases, as determined by actual timber harvest levels. 

In Phase 1, the timber program will be restricted to a portion of the 

suitable land base focusing on the roaded portion and some lower value 

roadless areas and excludes moderate and higher value roadless areas. 

The Phase 1 portion includes approximately 537,000 suitable acres, or 

69 percent of the total suitable land base. Should the actual level of 

timber harvest reach 100 MMBF for two consecutive fiscal years, the 

Tongass could then plan for timber projects in the Phase 2 portion of the 

approved suitable land base, resulting in a program that operates on 

680,000 acres of suitable lands, including some moderate value roadless 

areas. Not all of these suitable acres are scheduled for timber harvest 

during the life of this Forest Plan. If timber harvest reaches 150 MMBF 

for two consecutive fiscal years, the Tongass could then plan for timber 

projects in Phase 3, which includes the entire suitable land base. The 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest is located in the Phase 1 portion of 

the suitable land base; accordingly, planning and implementation of it 

may proceed under the Timber Sale Program Adaptive Management 

Strategy. 

The January 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule prohibited most 

timber harvest and road construction in inventoried roadless areas on 

National Forest System lands. The Roadless Rule has been the subject 

of several lawsuits. In the most recent court ruling (9/20/06), the court 

Roadless Area 

Conservation Rule 
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 7 

re-instituted the 2004 version of the Roadless Rule, including 36 CFR 

Part 294.14(d): "this subpart does not apply to road construction, road 

reconstruction, or the cutting, sale or removal of timber in inventoried 

roadless areas on the Tongass National Forest". Accordingly, the 

Tongass National Forest is exempt from the Roadless Rule’s 

prohibitions against timber harvest, road construction, and 

reconstruction in inventoried roadless areas. Such activities may occur 

on the Tongass where allowed by the 2008 Forest Plan. 

An analysis of the effects to roadless areas within the project area has 

been included as part of the analysis for this project. This project is 

consistent with agency policy and procedures and has been designed to 

meet the management direction, goals and objectives, and standards and 

guidelines in the Forest Plan. 

How Does the Forest Service Develop 

Forecasts about Future Timber Market 

Demand? 

Consistent with the provisions of the Tongass Timber Reform Act, the 

Forest Service makes two types of forecasts of market demand for 

timber from the Tongass National Forest. The first, “planning cycle 

market demand,” forecasts the long-term demand for timber from the 

Tongass over the life of the Forest Plan, derived from trends in 

international demand for end products manufactured from such timber. 

Based on these long-term projections, the Forest Service also estimates 

annual market demand in order to determine how much timber to plan to 

offer for sale. 

Research economists with the Forest Service’s Pacific Northwest (PNW) 

Research Station have prepared several studies of “planning cycle 

market demand” for Tongass timber, including three General Technical 

Reports by Brooks and Haynes (1990, 1994, and 1997). In 2006, the 

PNW Research Station published new harvest projections (Brackley et 

al. 2006). This report and an addendum to it (Brackley and Haynes, in 

press) provided key information for the 2008 Forest Plan Amendment. 

The Brackley et al. 2006 projections include four scenarios: 1) limited 

lumber production, which represents the situation the timber industry in 

Southeast Alaska has faced over the last several years; 2) expanded 

lumber production, which assumes some form of demand stimulus 

occurs; 3) medium integrated industry, which assumes sufficient 

demand stimulus occurs to cause an expansion of the current industry 

capacity and better utilization of forest products removed from public 

timber sales; and 4) high integrated industry, assumes some kind of 

additional demand stimulation to result in full utilization of all types of 

forest products available from the Tongass. More detailed information 

Market Demand for 

the Planning Cycle 
Appendix A 

8 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

about these scenarios and their assumptions is in the Forest Plan 

Amendment Final EIS and ROD (January 2008), and in Brackley and 

Haynes (in press). 

The Brackley et al. 2006 study displays alternative projections of 

derived demand for timber from the Tongass National Forest. For the 

first two scenarios, which assume no market for low grade sawlogs and 

utility volume, the figures in that table includes sawtimber only. For the 

two integrated industry scenarios, the projections include total volume, 

including both sawlogs and utility. Utility volume must be cut down 

along with higher-quality timber even if there is no demand for it. It is 

the total volume of timber cut on the Tongass that is of most interest, in 

part because environmental effects result from total volume cut. In 

addition, any comparison of scenarios must be based on comparable 

figures. Accordingly, the table below shows Brackley et al 2006 

projections for all four scenarios in terms of total volume: 
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 9 

Table A-1. Tongass National Forest Timber Sale Volume Necessary to 

Supply Derived Demand for Decked Log Volume and Chips— in Million 

Board Feet (MMBF); (Alexander, 20081) 

Year Scenario 1 

Limited

lumber

Scenario 2 

Expanded 

lumber

Scenario 3 

Medium 

integrated 

Scenario 4 

High

integrated

2007 49.8 61.9 67 67 

2008 49.8 66.4 139 139 

2009 51.3 72.4 151 151 

2010 52.8 78.5 166 166 

2011 52.8 84.5 184 184 

2012 54.3 90.5 204 286 

2013 55.8 98.1 204 291 

2014 57.3 105.6 204 295 

2015 58.9 113.2 204 299 

2016 58.9 122.2 204 303 

2017 60.4 131.3 204 308 

2018 61.9 140.3 204 312 

2019 63.4 150.1 204 317 

2020 64.9 163.0 204 325 

2021 66.4 175.0 204 333 

2022 67.9 187.1 204 342 

2023 69.4 200.7 204 351 

2024 70.9 215.8 204 360 

2025 72.4 230.9 204 370 

1 Annualized calculation to fulfill derived demand scenarios from Brackley et al. (2006). This 

table was created using annualized values provided by Dr. Allen Brackley (personal 

communication, Nov 29 2006) from the model used to develop derived demand estimates in 

Brackley et al. (2006). The values for Limited Lumber Scenario and Expanded Lumber 

scenarios reported in this table have been adjusted to include low quality material not included 

in the demand projections and include saw logs, cedar export, and utility (chip) volumes 

available from sawmill production. The Medium and High Integrated Scenarios are not 

adjusted and include saw logs, cedar exports, chip volumes, low-grade material, and utility in 

Brackley et al. (2006).

After the Brackley et al 2006 study was published, the Regional Forester 

approved a policy under which timber purchasers may ship to the lower 

48 states unprocessed certain small-diameter and low-quality logs 

harvested from the Tongass, up to 50 percent of the volume harvested on 

each sale. This policy creates a market opportunity for low-quality 

material that the Brackley et al 2006 study assumed would not be 

utilized under scenarios 1 and 2. In response to the new interstate 

shipment policy and other recent events, the Brackley and Haynes 
Appendix A 

10 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

addendum to the 2006 study concludes that “[D]emand for national 

forest timber in Alaska is on a trajectory more similar to the scenario 2 

(expanded lumber production).” 

The annual market demand forecast is a methodology used to set the 

short-term goals for the Tongass timber sale program –the volume the 

Forest plans to offer for sale in the current year pending sufficient 

funding. 

The formulas and procedures used in forecasting annual market demand 

are described in a Forest Service report titled Responding to the Market 

Demand for Tongass Timber (Morse, 2000). These procedures, which 

have become known as the “Morse methodology,” are based on the 

premise that: 

Forest product markets are volatile, especially in the short run. 

Timber purchasers in Southeast Alaska have few alternative suppliers of 

timber if they cannot obtain it from the Tongass National Forest. 

Oversupplying this market has relatively few adverse economic effects; 

undersupplying it can have much greater negative economic 

consequences. 

 It takes years to prepare National Forest timber for sale, 

including completion of environmental impact statements. 

 It is difficult to estimate demand for timber from the Tongass, 

even a year or two in advance. 

 Industry must be able to respond to rapidly changing market 

conditions in order to remain competitive. 

Accordingly, the Morse methodology establishes a system that considers 

factors such as mill capacity and utilization of that capacity, and seeks to 

build and maintain sufficient volume of timber under contract (i.e., 

timber purchased but not yet harvested) to allow the industry to react 

promptly to market fluctuations. Industry actions such as annual harvest 

levels are monitored and timber program targets are developed by 

estimating the amount of timber needed to replace volume harvested 

from year to year. The methodology is adaptive, because if harvest level 

drop below expectations and other factors remain constant, future timber 

sale offerings would also be reduced to levels needed to maintain the 

target level of volume under contract. Conversely, if harvest levels rise 

unexpectedly, future timber sale targets would also increase sufficiently 

to ensure that the inventory of volume under contract is not exhausted. 

By dealing with uncertainty in a flexible, science-based fashion, the 

Morse methodology is an example of adaptive management. 

The Morse methodology originally used the projected harvest from the 

final 1997 Brooks and Haynes report. These procedures were recently 

updated (Alexander, 2008) to use the annual projected harvest figures 

Annual Market 

Demand
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 11 

from Brackley et al 2006 in calculations of annual timber offer targets. 

No further changes to the Morse methodology were required as a result 

of the updated long-term demand projections contained in the Brackley 

et al study. 

Using the updated annual market demand procedures, the Forest Service 

has set a goal for volume to be offered in FY 2008 of 124 MMBF. This 

figure was calculated using the Brackley et al. 2006 “expanded lumber 

scenario.” The actual volume of timber offered for sale reflects a 

combination of factors, such as final budget appropriations, completing 

the NEPA process; the practice of offering smaller sales for smaller 

operators rather than all the volume from a NEPA decision; the statutory 

requirement that timber sales offered in the Alaska Region appraise 

positive; and volume enjoined from being offered because of litigation. 

The spreadsheet displaying the annual demand calculation and a 

summary of the factors used in these calculations are in the project 

record. 

The planned annual timber volume offer could include a combination of 

new, previously offered, and reconfigured timber sales. Both green 

timber and salvage will be components of the program. Offerings will 

consist of those targeted for Small Business qualified firms, as well as a 

portion of the volume being made available for the open market. 

For planning and scheduling purposes, the Tongass uses a 5-year timber 

sale plan, which is consistent with Forest Service Manual 2430. This 5-

year plan is based on completed and ongoing environmental analyses 

and contains information to purchasers and other interested parties, and 

provides a plan that can be adjusted in response to changing market 

conditions. 

Both the “annual market demand” and the “planning cycle market 

demand” projections are important for timber sale program planning 

purposes. They provide guidance to the Forest Service to request 

budgets, to make decisions about workforce and facilities, and to 

indicate the need to begin new environmental analysis for future 

program offerings. They also provide a basis for expectations regarding 

future harvest, and thus provide an important source of information for 

establishing the schedule of probable future sale offerings. The weight 

given to the projections will vary depending on a number of factors, 

such as how recently they were done and how well they appear to have 

accounted for recent, site-specific events in the timber market. 
Appendix A 

12 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

What Steps Must Be Completed to 

Prepare a Sale for Offer? 

The Tongass National Forest’s timber sale program is complex. A 

number of projects are underway at any given point in time, each of 

which may be in a different stage of planning and preparation. A system 

of checkpoints, or “gates”, helps the Forest Service track the 

accomplishments of each stage of a project from inception to contract 

termination. 

Gate 1 – Initial Planning of Timber Sale Project 

A Timber Sale Project Plan, often referred to as a Position Statement, is 

a brief analysis of the project area with the intent of determining the 

feasibility of a potential timber sale. After the Position Statement is 

developed, the Forest Service decides whether the project area merits 

continued investment of time and funds in sale planning.

Gate 2 – Project Analysis, Sale Area Design, and Decision 

This step is commonly referred to as the “NEPA” phase and includes 

field work, public scoping, analysis, draft disclosure of the effects of the 

project on the environment, public comment, final analysis and 

disclosure, decision, and potentially administrative appeals and 

litigation. Gate 2 activities must be completed before a sale is awarded. 

Legislation, policy changes, and appeals and litigation have recently 

extended completion of some projects for a much longer timeframe, 

often doubling the desired time frame. 

Gate 3 – Preparation of a Timber Sale 

During this step, the information and direction included in the decision 

document from Gate 2 is used to layout units and design roads on the 

ground. Additional site-specific information is collected at this time. In 

order to maintain an orderly flow of sales, Gate 3 activities need to be 

complete before a sale is advertised. 

Gate 4 – Advertise a Timber Sale 

The costs and value associated with the timber sale designed in Gate 3 

are appraised and packaged in a timber sale contract. The contract is a 

legally binding document that tells a prospective timber sale purchaser 

how the sale must be harvested to conform to the project decision 

document. This step occurs during the final year of the project 

development and culminates with the advertisement of the project for 

sale. 

Gate 5 – Bid Opening 

Gate 5 is completed with the opening of bids for the project. If a bid is 

submitted, contractual provisions govern when the award of the sale 

takes place, when the sale will be completed (contract length and 

operation season), and how timber removal is to occur. 
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 13 

Gate 6 – Award a Timber Sale Contract 

Gate 6 is the formal designation of a contract between a bidder and the 

Forest Service. 

How Does the Forest Service Maintain 

an Orderly and Predictable Timber Sale 

Program? 

As discussed earlier, the Forest Service tracks the accomplishment of the 

different steps of development of each timber sale with the Gate System 

(Forest Service Handbook 2409.18). From a timber sale program 

standpoint, it is also necessary to track and manage multiple projects as 

they move through the Gate System. Because of the timeframes needed 

to accomplish a given timber sale and the complexities inherent in 

timber sale project and program development, it is necessary to track 

various timber sale program volumes from Gate 1 through Gate 6. 

The goal of the Tongass National Forest is to provide an even flow of 

timber sale offerings on a sustained-yield basis to meet market demand. 

In recent years, this has been difficult to accomplish due to a 

combination of uncertainties such as delays related to appeals and 

litigation; changing economic factors, such as rapid market fluctuations; 

and industry-related factors, such as changes in timber industry 

processing capabilities. To achieve an even flow of timber sale 

offerings, ‘pools’ of volume in various stages of the Gate System are 

maintained so volume offered can be balanced against current year 

demand and market cycle projections. 

Today, upward trends in demand are resolved by moving out-year 

timber projects forward, which may leave later years not capable of 

meeting the needs of the industry. In other instances, a number of new 

projects are started based on today’s market but will not be available for 

a number of years. By the time the added projects are ready for offer, 

the market and demand for this volume may have changed. Three pools 

of timber volume are tracked to achieve an even flow of timber sale 

offerings. 

The objective of the timber pools concept is to maintain sufficient 

volume in preparation and under contract to be able to respond to yearly 

fluctuations in a timely manner. Refer to Table A-2, which displays the 

current estimated volume in each pool, as well as the goal for volume to 

be maintained in each pool, based on historic patterns. Based on historic 

patterns, the Tongass has established a goal for the volume to be 

maintained in each of the timber pools. Appeals and litigation can cause 

timber sale projects to be reevaluated to ensure they meet current 

standards and direction, which can cause delays in making projects 

Pools of Timber 

(Pipeline Volume) 
Appendix A 

14 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

available to move through the pools, thereby not fully meeting the goals 

for volumes in each pool. 

Pool 1 - Timber Volume Under Analysis (Gate 1 and Gate 2) 

Volume in Gate 1, the initial planning step, represents a large amount of 

volume, but represents a relatively low investment in each project. This 

relatively low investment level offers the timber program manager a 

higher degree of flexibility and thus, does not greatly influence the flow 

of volume through the pipeline. A signed Project Plan (FSH 2409.18, 

Chapter 20) is the completion of this gate. 

Gate 2, timber volume under environmental analysis, includes sales 

being analyzed and undergoing public comment through the NEPA 

process. This pool includes any project that has started the scoping 

process through those projects ready to have a decision issued. In 

addition, tracking how much volume is involved in appeals or litigation 

may be necessary to determine possible effects on the flow of potential 

timber sales. A signed NEPA decision (FSH 2409.18, Chapter 30) is the 

completion of this gate. Volume affected by appeals and litigation is 

tracked as a subset of this pool (Table A-3). 

Based on historic patterns, the Tongass has established a goal for the 

pipeline volume to be maintained in each of the timber pools. The goal 

for Pool 1 is to be maintained at approximately 4.5 times the amount of 

the projected harvest to account for projects at various stages of analysis. 

That goal reflects a number of factors which can lead to a decrease in 

volume available, such as a decision in Gate 1 to drop further analysis in 

a particular planning area (called the “no go” decision), a fall down in 

estimated volume between Gate 1 and Gate 2, and volume not available 

for harvest due to appeals or litigation. 

Pool 2 - Timber Volume Available for Sale (Gates 3, 4 and 5) 

Timber volume available for sale includes sales for which environmental 

analysis has been completed, and have had any administrative appeals 

and litigation resolved. Enough volume in this pool is needed to be 

maintained to be able to schedule future sale offerings of the size and 

configuration that best meets market needs in an orderly manner. 

As a matter of policy and sound business practice, the Forest Service 

announces probable future sale offerings through the Periodic Timber 

Sale Announcement. Delays at Gate 2 have affected sale preparation 

(Gate 3) and have made scheduling of sales uncertain. At Gate 4, sales 

have been fully prepared and appraised, and are available to managers to 

advertise for sale. This allows potential purchasers an opportunity to do 

their own evaluations of these offerings to determine whether to bid, and 

if so, at what level. 

Timber in this pool can include a combination of new sales, previously 

offered unsold sales, and remaining volume from cancelled sales. The 
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 15 

goal is to maintain Pool 2 at approximately 1.3 times the amount of the 

projected harvest to allow flexibility in offering sales. 

Pool 3 - Timber Volume under Contract (Gate 6) 

Timber volume under contract contains sales that have been sold and a 

contract awarded to a purchaser, but which have not yet been fully 

harvested. Contract length is based on the amount of timber in the sale, 

the current timber demand, and the accessibility of the area for 

mobilization. The longer the contract period, the more flexibility the 

operator has to remove the timber based on market fluctuations. Timber 

contracts typically initially give the purchaser 3 years to harvest and 

remove the timber purchased; however, they can be extended under 

certain circumstances, such as inoperable periods of weather, 

injunctions, and other contractual delays. 

The Tongass attempts to maintain roughly 3 years of unharvested 

volume under contract to the industry as a whole. This volume of timber 

is the industry’s dependable timber supply, which allows adaptability for 

business decisions. This practice is not limited to the Alaska Region, 

but is particularly pertinent to Alaska because of the nature of the land 

base. The relative absence of roads, the island geography, the steep 

terrain, and the consequent isolation of much of the timber land means 

that timber purchasers need longer-than-average lead times to plan 

operations, stage equipment, set up camps, and construct roads prior to 

beginning harvest. 

A combination of projected harvest and projected demand is used to 

estimate the volume needed to maintain an even-flow timber sale 

program. As purchasers harvest timber, they deplete the volume under 

contract. Timber harvest is then planned and offered by the agency as 

sales that give the industry the opportunity to replace this volume and 

build or maintain their working inventory. Although there will be 

variation for practical reasons from year to year, in the long-run over 

both the high points and low points of the market cycle, the volume 

harvested will equal the timber volume sold, excluding cancelled sales. 

The goal for Pool 3, volume under contract, is to maintain timber 

volume at approximately three times the amount of annual projected 

harvest. This allows the purchasers to have a continuous supply of 

timber volume available for harvest so they can plan their operations and 

be flexible to allow for weather conditions and market fluctuations. 
Appendix A 

16 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

Table A-2 

Accomplishments in Gate System and Timber Pools (MMBF)

Pipeline Pool Volume 2008 Goal FY 08 

(as of 1/23/08) 

Pool 1 

Volume Under Analysis 

 (Gates 1 and 2) 2991

 300 

Pool 2 

Volume Available for Sale 

 (Gates 3, Gate 4 and Gate 5) 862

 1423

Pool 3 

Volume Under Contract

 (Gate 6) 1994

 1085

1 The goal for volume under analysis is approximately 4.5 times the projected harvest 

for the current year (66.4 MMBF for 2008 based on expanded lumber scenario). 

Volume under analysis includes all volume in projects from the Notice of Intent 

through completion of the environmental analysis for sales planned.

2 The goal for volume available for sale is to have at least 1.3 times the projected 

harvest for the current year (66.4 MMBF) in sales that have approved NEPA and 

completion of timber sale preparation. 

3 As of the date in the table, it is estimated about half of this volume can not be offered 

since it currently appraises deficit (2008 Appropriations Bill P.L. 110-161, H. Rept. 

110-497, Sec. 411). Also, about a quarter of the projects are designed to provide 

volume for small sales over a period of time and would affect the volume available for 

offer. About 14 percent of the volume is in settlement agreements. As a result, less 

than half of the Pool 2 volume is readily available for sale. This figure also does not 

include volume under litigation – see Table A-3. 

4 The goal for volume under contract is for purchasers to have 3 times the volume 

under contract as projected for harvest for the current year (66.4 MMBF). 

5 Estimated volume under contract available for harvest (not including timber enjoined 

from harvest or sales that have had mutual cancellation requests granted).

Timber harvest projects require site-specific environmental analysis that 

usually is documented in an environmental assessment (EA) or an 

environmental impact statement (EIS). The public is notified of the 

analysis and is provided the opportunity to comment on proposals and 

file an appeal on decisions. The administrative appeal process for most 

timber harvest projects takes up to 105 days before implementation to 

occur. 

When decisions are appealed and affirmed through the administrative 

appeal process, the project can still be litigated. Litigation can be a 

lengthy process. Although litigation does not preclude offering timber 

How Appeals and 

Litigation Affect the 

Timber Sale 

Program 
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 17 

for sale, the Forest Service and potential purchasers are often reluctant to 

enter into a contract where the outcome is uncertain. Recently, sales 

were enjoined from harvest after the contracts were awarded. The 

outcome of litigation affects the Forest’s ability to provide a reliable 

timber supply. 

Table A-3 

Timber Volume Involved in Appeals and/or Litigation1

Timber volume with decision reversed on appeals 2

 0 MMBF 

Timber volume involved with litigation 33.4 MMBF 

1

 As of January 23, 2008.

2

 Decision overturned during internal review. Does not include volume in decisions 

currently in the appeal period or undergoing an appeal review. 

How Does the Forest Service Decide 

Where Timber Harvest Projects should 

be Located? 

The location of timber sale projects is based first on the land allocation 

decisions in the Forest Plan. Under the 1997 Forest Plan, lands 

designated for possible timber harvest are in the development Land Use 

Designations (LUDs), primarily the Timber Production, Modified 

Landscape, and Scenic Viewshed LUDs. 

The second consideration is the suitability of the land for timber 

production. Many acres within the development LUDs are not suitable 

for timber production due to poor soils or steep slopes. The process for 

determining the suitability of the land is found in the 2008 Forest Plan 

Amendment, Appendix A. Figure A-2 depicts the classification of all 

the lands within the Tongass National Forest. Four percent of the 

Tongass land base, the suitable, available and scheduled forest land, 

provides the land base for the Allowable Sale Quantity of 267 MMBF 

per year. Under the 2008 Forest Plan, the remainder of the land, 

approximately 96 percent or 663,000 acres, is not physically suitable, 

does not allow timber harvest, or is not scheduled. 

Timber Resource 

Land Suitability 
Appendix A 

18 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

Figure A-2 

2008 Forest Plan Timber Resource Suitability Analysis 

Non-Forest land

41%

 Withdrawn lands

25%

Non-Productive Forest

14%

Productive Forest 

Suitable and Available -

 Scheduled 4%

Productive Forest NonDevelopment LUD

8%

Productive Forest 

Suitable and Available - 

Unscheduled 2%

Productive ForestNot suitable

6%

Non-Forest land – Land that has never supported forests, e.g. muskeg, rock, ice, etc. 

Withdrawn Lands – Lands designated by Congress, the Secretary of Agriculture, or Chief for purposes 

that preclude timber harvest, e.g. Wilderness Areas 

Non-productive Forest – Forest land not capable of producing commercial wood on a sustained yield 

basis. 

Productive Forest, Not suitable, Physical Attributes – Forest land unsuitable for timber due to physical 

attributes (steep slopes, soils, etc.) and/or inadequate information to ensure restocking of trees within 

five years of final harvest. 

Productive Forest, Not Suitable, Non-development LUD – Productive forest lands where timber 

production is not allowed due to Forest Plan land use designation, e.g. Semi-Remote Recreation, Oldgrowth Habitat, etc. 

Productive Forest, Suitable and Available, Scheduled – Forest land that meets all the criteria for timber 

production suitability and is available and is scheduled by the Forest Plan over the planning horizon 

Productive Forest Suitable and Available Unscheduled – Forest land that meets all the criteria for timber 

production suitability, is available for harvest, however was not scheduled in the Forest Plan model for 

harvest includes the model implementation reduction factor (MIRF) acreage of 226, 000 acres. 

The Tongass National Forest is divided into ten ranger districts. As 

described in the 2008 Forest Plan Amendment ROD, under the Timber 

Sale Program Adaptive Management Strategy, the timber sale program 

will be implemented in three phases as determined by actual timber 

harvest levels. For current planning and scheduling purposes, the Forest 

will operate on the Phase 1 portion of the suitable land base, capable of 

supporting a sustained harvest of 150 MMBF annually. Personal use of 

timber, micro sales, salvage sales, small commercial timber sales 

District-Level 

Planning 
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 19 

generally less than one MMBF, young-growth management projects, 

and the roads associated with these activities, would be allowed in 

development LUDs outside of the Phase 1 portion of the ASQ land base. 

The Forest Supervisor for the Tongass National Forest is responsible for 

the overall management of the Forest’s timber sale program. Included 

within these responsibilities is making the determination on the amount 

of timber volume to be made available to industry. Whether or not 

sufficient funding is appropriated to attain the program is the 

responsibility of the Congress and the President. 

District Rangers develop a timber sale plan of potential timber harvest 

projects. The goal of the plan is to attain the targeted offer level for the 

current year, based on the estimated annual market demand, and to 

develop a timber program for several years of the planning cycle. The 

offer level for the current year is based, to the extent possible, on the 

forecasted annual market demand. Actual demand may fluctuate from 

year to year due to short-term market fluctuations. Actual offer levels 

vary year to year depending on several factors, including volume in 

Gates 3 through 5, and current market conditions. 

The District Ranger is responsible for identifying and recommending the 

project areas for the 5-Year Timber Sale Plan. The Ranger’s role is to 

develop and recommend to the Forest Supervisor timber harvest projects 

that meet Forest Plan goals and objectives. Districts work on various 

timber sale projects simultaneously, resulting in continual movement of 

projects through the stages of the timber program pipeline. This 

schedule allows the necessary time to complete preliminary analysis, 

resource inventories, environmental documentation, field layout 

preparations and permit acquisition, appraisal of timber resource values, 

advertisement of sale characteristics for potential bidders, bid opening, 

and physical award of the timber sale. Project delays through the 

completion of Gate 2 attributable to legal injunctions and litigation have 

affected the offer level in recent years. Once all of the Rangers’ 

recommendations are made and compiled into a consolidated schedule, 

the Forest Supervisor is responsible for the review and approval of the 

final timber sale plan and prioritization of projects as necessary. 

Considerations the District Ranger takes into account for each project 

include: 

- If the project area contains a sufficient number of suitable timber 

production acres allocated to development Land Use 

Designations. Consideration includes if the timber volume being 

considered for harvest can be achieved while meeting Forest 

Plan goals, objectives, and standards and guidelines. 

- Other resource uses and potential future uses of the area and of 

adjacent areas and of non-National Forest System lands. 
Appendix A 

20 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

- Areas where the investment necessary for project infrastructure 

(roads, bridges, etc) is achievable with the estimated value of 

timber volume in the project area. Where infrastructure already 

exists, the project would allow any maintenance and upgrade of 

the facilities necessary for removal of timber volume. 

- Areas where investments for the project coincide with long-term 

management based on Forest Plan direction. 

The implementation of the sales on the timber sale plan depends in part 

on the final budget appropriation to the agency. In the event insufficient 

budget is allocated, or resolution of pending litigation or other factors 

delay planned sales, timber sale projects are selected and implemented 

on a priority basis. Generally, the higher-priority projects include sales 

where investments such as road networks, camps or log transfer 

facilities have already been established or where land management 

status is not under dispute. The distribution of sales across the Tongass 

is also taken into account to distribute the effects of sales and to provide 

sales in proximity to timber processing facilities. Timber sale projects 

scheduled for the current year that are not implemented, or the 

remaining volume of projects that are only partially implemented, are 

shifted to future years in the plan. The sale plan becomes very dynamic 

in nature due to the number of influences on each district. 

Conclusion 

There is a long legislative recognition that timber harvest is one of the 

appropriate activities on national forests, starting with the founding 

legislation for national forests in 1897. The Organic Administration Act 

provides that national forests may be established “to improve and 

protect the forest within the boundaries, or for the purpose of securing 

favorable conditions of water flows, and to furnish a continuous supply 

of timber for the use and necessities of the citizens of the United States.”

Congress’s policy for national forests, as stated in the Multiple-Use 

Sustained Yield Act of 1960, is “the national forests are established and 

shall be administered for outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed, 

and wildlife and fish purposes.” Accordingly, Congress has authorized 

the Secretary of Agriculture to sell trees and forest products from the 

national forests “at no less than appraised value.” The National Forest 

Management Act directs that forest plans shall “provide for multiple use 

and sustained yield, and in particular, include coordination of outdoor 

recreation, range, timber, watershed, wildlife, fish and wilderness.” 

ANLICA provided for timber harvest from the Tongass as well as other 

uses such as subsistence. Effects on subsistence resources from timber 

harvest Tongass-wide are projected to have few differences based on the 

sequence in which areas are harvested. Because of the multiple use 
Appendix A 

Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS Appendix A 21 

mandate and other requirements of the laws, these effects to subsistence 

are necessary, consistent with sound management of public lands.

In addition to nationwide statutes, Section 101 of the Tongass Timber 

Reform Act directs the Forest Service to seek to meet market demand 

for timber from the Tongass, subject to certain qualifications. It is the 

goal of the Tongass National Forest to provide an even-flow of timber 

on a sustained-yield basis and in an economically efficient manner. The 

amount of timber offered for sale each year is based on the objective of 

offering enough volume for sale to meet the projected annual demand. 

That annual demand projection starts with installed mill capacity, and 

then looks to industry rate of capacity utilization under different market 

scenarios, the volume under contract, and a number of other factors, 

including anticipated harvest and the range of expected timber 

purchases. 

As described by Morse (April 2000), in terms of short-term economic 

consequences, oversupplying the market is less damaging than 

undersupplying it. If more timber is offered than purchased in a given 

year, the unsold volume is still available for re-offer in future years. The 

unsold volume would have no environmental effects because it would 

not be harvested. Conversely, a short fall in the supply of timber can be 

financially devastating to the industry. 
Appendix A 

22 Appendix A Central Kupreanof Timber Harvest DEIS

References 

Alexander, S. 2008. Tongass National Forest Timber Sale Procedures: 

Using Updated Information about Market Demand to Schedule FY 2006 

Timber Offerings (). USDA Forest Service Region 10, Juneau AK. 10 

p. On file with: Regional Economist, Alaska Region, PO Box 21628, 

Juneau AK 99802. 

Brackley, A.M.; Rojas, T.D.; Haynes, R.W. 2006. Timber products 

output and timber harvests in Alaska: projections for 2005-25. Gen. 

Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-677. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 33 p. 

Brackley, A.M. and Haynes, R.W. . Timber Products Output and 

Timber Harvests in Alaska: An Addendum. Res. Note PNW-RN-XXX. 

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station. In Press p. 

Brooks, D.J.; Haynes, R.W. 1997. Timber products output and timber 

harvests in Alaska: projections for 1997-2010. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNWGTR-409. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 17 p. 

Morse, K.S. 2000a. Responding to the Market Demand for Tongass 

Timber: Using Adaptive Management to Implement Sec. 101 of the 

1990 Tongass Timber Reform Act. April 2000. Manag. Bull. R10-MB413. Juneau, AK: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Alaska Region. 43 p. 

Morse, K.S. 2000b. Tongass National Forest timber sale procedures: 

Using Information About Market Demand to Schedule FY2001 Timber 

Sale Offerings. October 2000. On file with: Regional Economist, 

Ecosystem Planning. Juneau, AK: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Alaska Region. 17 p. 

USDA Forest Service, 2008a, Forest Plan Amendment Record of 

Decision, January 2008. 

USDA Forest Service, 2008b, Forest Plan, January 2008. 

USDA Forest Service, 2008, Forest Plan Amendment Final 

Environmental Impact Statement, January 2008. 

USDA Forest Service. 2003. Supplemental Environmental Impact 

Statement. Juneau, Alaska: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Alaska Region, Tongass National Forest. R10-MB-481a.