R e s e a r c h i n P r o g r e s s S e m i n a r S e r i e s

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Jeremy Travis, Director June 1996

U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

National Institute of Justice

DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE

OFF ICE OF JUSTICE PROGRAMS

BJA NI J OJJDP BJS OVC

R e s e a r c h P r e v i e w

National Institute of Justice

Youth Violence, Guns, and Illicit Drug

Markets

A Summary of a Presentation by Alfred Blumstein, Ph.D., Carnegie Mellon University

The perception that violence is on the rise is supported

by data showing a sharp increase in violent crime among

juveniles since the mid-1980s. Although the overall

national homicide rate has not increased over the past 20

years, homicides by youths under the age of 24 have

grown significantly in recent years. Between 1985 and

1992, the rate of homicide by young people, the number

they committed with guns, and the arrest rate of nonwhite

juveniles for drug offenses have all more than doubled.

These increases appear to be linked to the recruitment of

juveniles into the illegal drug trade and the consequent

diffusion of guns from them to a much larger number of

young people.

Age, murder, and illegal drug use

Age and murder. It has long been known that crime

rates typically peak in the late teen years, and agespecific patterns for such crimes as robbery and burglary

have not changed significantly in the past 20 years.

However, major changes have occurred in homicide

patterns among the young.

From 1970 to 1985, individuals ages 18 to 24 were the

most likely of any age group to commit murder, and the

murder rate among this group was relatively steady. In

1985, murder by people under 24 began to increase: for

those 18 and younger, the homicide rate more than

doubled between 1985 and 1992. During that same

period, the rate among those 24 to 30 remained steady,

and the rate declined for those over 30. Thus, much of

the rise in the Nation’s overall homicide rate in the late

1980s was due to the surge in killings by the young.

To further illustrate the dimensions of this change, a

calculation can be made to show the “excess” murders

attributable to young people, i.e., the homicides that

would not have been committed if the rates for ages 15–

22 had remained stable at their 1970–1985 levels. A total

of 18,600 of these “excess murders” are estimated to

have been committed between 1986 and 1992. This

represents about 12 percent of the annual average of

22,000 murders during those 7 years.

Age, race, and illegal drugs. The surge in violent

juvenile crime coincided with an increase in drug arrests,

which rose particularly among nonwhites in urban areas.

After a 10-year period of stability in drug arrests of

nonwhite juveniles, the rise of urban crack cocaine

markets led to sharply increased rates among this group,

beginning in 1985. To meet the growth in demand for

crack cocaine, the drug industry had recruited young

sellers, primarily nonwhite youths, many of whom saw

this as their only viable economic opportunity. The rate of

arrests rose from approximately 200 per 100,000 in 1985

to twice that rate 4 years later.

For white youths, drug arrests declined during this period,

in part because of a general policy shift begun in 1975

that reversed their rapidly growing drug arrest rate,

primarily for marijuana. The rapid increase in arrests of

nonwhites (primarily African Americans) reflected the

extent to which crack street markets were more accessible to police (as well as to buyers) than the more

surreptitious markets maintained by white drug dealers.

Note: This Research Preview updates the December

1995 release.
Murder with guns. Guns are increasingly involved in

homicides among youths. From 1976 to 1985, when the

homicide rate involving juveniles was fairly steady, a gun

was used more often than any other weapon (a constant

60 percent of the time). Seven years later, by 1992, the

number of murders by juveniles in which a gun was

involved had doubled, but the number committed without

a gun remained steady.

The linkage: a hypothesis. As more juveniles were

recruited to sell crack, they armed themselves with guns.

For those transporting valuable illicit merchandise,

whether money or drugs, a gun was seen as necessary

for protection, especially because they could not call for

police assistance if threatened. Since juveniles are tightly

networked in schools and in their neighborhoods, some

youths not involved in the drug business felt they had to

carry guns to protect themselves from armed juvenile

drug sellers. Possibly, many also saw guns as conferring

a measure of status and power. Gun possession escalated into an arms race that diffused the weapons broadly

throughout the community.

Considering the known frequency with which male

teenagers often resort to violence to settle arguments,

the increased presence of guns has meant that disputes

once settled by fist fights often escalated to shooting

incidents resulting in greater lethality. Juveniles’ use of

firearms is more random than adults’; teenage behavior is

often marked by recklessness and bravado, while adults

generally act with more restraint. Until recently, the

majority of homicide cases involved people who knew

each other. Overall, between 1976 and 1991, the proportion of homicides involving strangers was about 20

percent. But when male juveniles were involved as

perpetrators, the figure climbed to 34 percent.

The links between the diffusion of guns to juveniles and

to the general community—a result of youths’ recruitment

into the illegal drug trade—is reflected in the 120 percent

jump in the homicide arrest rate for nonwhite juveniles

from 1985 to 1992. For white juveniles, the rate rose

about 80 percent, even though there was no strong

indication of their involvement in the drug trade; also, this

increase began in 1988, 3 years after the rise among

nonwhites began—a lag consistent with the diffusion

hypothesis. In sharp contrast, there was no growth in the

homicide rate for adults of either group.

Implications

Demographics and crime. Meanwhile, the incarceration

rate in this country has grown dramatically. In the 50

years from 1923 to 1973, it was quite stable and averaged about 110 per 100,000. Since then, the rate has

almost quadrupled to over 400 per 100,000 in State and

Federal prisons. In fact, the large increase in incarcerated

adults could have contributed substantially to the recruitment of juveniles into the drug trade.

Of particular relevance to future crime rates is the growing number of teenagers. The age group currently

responsible for the highest homicide rate, the 18-yearolds, is about as small as it has been in recent years. As

this cohort ages, its crime rate may level out, as it has in

the past. But it is also possible that today’s 18-year-olds

will continue reckless behavior as they grow older.

However, children who are now younger (about ages 5 to

15) represent the future problem, because they are larger

cohorts than the current 18-year-old group. Even if

current rates do not continue to rise, violent crime is likely

to increase because there will be more 18-year-olds to

commit violence at a higher rate.

Options to change the trends. A concerted effort needs

to be made to get firearms out of the hands of young

people. In most cases it is not a legislative issue—the

carrying of firearms by juveniles is illegal almost everywhere, and the 1994 Crime Law made it a Federal

offense. Because so many of the guns obtained illegally

have moved across State lines, initially from a licensed

firearms dealer, the Federal government has an important

role in enforcing the laws prohibiting those illegal sales.

Stronger enforcement and other avenues of depleting the

gun supply need to be found, especially in urban areas.

Some communities are trying new ways to cut down the

number of guns. Pittsburgh’s “gun task force” is examining

This summary is based on a presentation by Alfred

Blumstein, Ph.D., J. Erik Jonsson University Professor of Urban Systems and Operations Research at

the H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and

Management, Carnegie Mellon University. As part of

NIJ’s Research in Progress Seminar Series, Dr.

Blumstein discussed his work with an audience of

researchers and criminal justice professionals and

practitioners. A 60-minute VHS videotape,Youth

Violence, Guns, and Illicit Drug Markets, is available for

$19 ($24 in Canada and other foreign countries). Ask

for NCJ 152235. Use the order form on the NEXT

PAGE to obtain this videotape and any of the other

tapes now available in the series.

Dr. Blumstein’s research is being extended with an

NIJ grant on juvenile violence and its relationship to

drug markets.

Points of view in this document do not necessarily reflect the official

position of the U.S. Department of Justice.
The Latest Criminal Justice

Videotape Series from NIJ:

Research in Progress Seminars

Learn about the latest developments in criminal justice

research from prominent criminal justice experts.

Each 60-minute tape presents a well-known scholar discussing his or her current studies and how

they relate to existing criminal justice research and includes the lecturer’s responses to audience questions.

In addition to Youth Violence, Guns, and Illicit Drug Markets, reported on in this Research Preview, the other tapes

available in VHS format are listed on page 4.

✂

To order any of these tapes, please complete and return this form with your payment ($19, U.S.; $24, Canada and

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a variety of approaches, including radio and television

spots with a telephone number to use to anonymously

report illegal guns. In Charleston, South Carolina, a

bounty is offered for reports leading to the seizure of an

illegal gun. Such an approach not only removes that gun

from circulation, it also inhibits the brandishing of guns,

which stimulates others to obtain a gun. These are the

kind of approaches needed to reverse the escalating

arms race in our neighborhoods.

In the long term, a major effort has to be made to build a

base of understanding by involving the research community in examining juvenile crime and its causes, the links

between those two criminogenic commodities—guns and

drugs—in the community and in their respective markets,

and the rate of homicides among young people. Financial

resources are needed to pursue these issues at the

necessary depth. The war on drugs, in particular, needs

to be examined to assess its positive and negative

effects, including its unintended consequences.
U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

National Institute of Justice

Washington, D.C. 20531

Official Business

Penalty for Private Use $300

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DOJ/NIJ

Permit No. G–91

NCJ 152236—Peter W. Greenwood,

Ph.D., Director, Criminal Justice

Research Program, The RAND

Corporation: Three Strikes, You’re Out:

Benefits and Costs of California’s New

Mandatory-Sentencing Law.

NCJ 152237—Christian Pfeiffer,

Ph.D., Director of the Kriminologisches Forschungsinstitut

Niedersachsen: Sentencing Policy and

Crime Rates in Reunified Germany.

NCJ 152238—Arthur L. Kellerman,

M.D., M.P.H., Director of the Center

for Injury Control, School of Public

Health and Associate Professor in the

Division of Emergency Medicine,

School of Medicine, Emory University:

Understanding and Preventing Violence: A

Public Health Perspective.

NCJ 152692—James Inciardi, Ph.D.,

Director, Drug and Alcohol Center,

University of Delaware: A CorrectionsBased Continuum of Effective Drug Abuse

Treatment.

NCJ 153270—Adele Harrell, Ph.D.,

Director, Program on Law and Behavior, The Urban Institute: Intervening with

High-Risk Youth: Preliminary Findings from

the Children-at-Risk Program.

NCJ 154277—Terrie Moffitt, Ph.D.,

Professor, Department of Psychology,

University of Wisconsin: Partner

Violence Among Young Adults.

NCJ 156923—Orlando Rodriguez,

Ph.D., Director, Hispanic Research

Center, Fordham University: The New

Immigrant Hispanic Populations: Implications for Crime and Delinquency in the Next

Decade.

NCJ 156925—John Monahan, Ph.D.,

Professor of Psychology and Legal

Medicine, University of Virginia:

Mental Illness and Violent Crime.

NCJ 157643—Benjamin Saunders,

Ph.D., and Dean G. Kilpatrick, Ph.D.,

Medical University of South Carolina:

Prevalence and Consequences of Child

Victimization: Preliminary Results from the

National Survey of Adolescents.

NCJ 159739—Joel H. Garner, Ph.D.,

Research Director, Joint Centers for

Justice Studies: Use of Force By and

Against the Police.

NCJ 159740—Kim English, Ph.D.,

Research Director, Colorado Division

of Criminal Justice: Managing Adult Sex

Offenders in Community Settings: A

Containment Approach.

NCJ 153271—Marvin Wolfgang,

Ph.D., Director, Legal Studies and

Criminology, University of Pennsylvania: Crime in a Birth Cohort: A Replication

in the People’s Republic of China.

NCJ 153730—Lawrence W. Sherman,

Ph.D., Chief Criminologist, Indianapolis Police Department, Professor of

Criminology, University of Maryland:

Reducing Gun Violence: Community

Policing Against Gun Crime.

NCJ 153272—Cathy Spatz Widom,

Ph.D., Professor, School of Criminal

Justice, State University of New

York—Albany: The Cycle of Violence

Revisited Six Years Later.

NCJ 153273—Wesley Skogan, Ph.D.,

Professor, Political Science and Urban

Affairs, Northwestern University:

Community Policing in Chicago: Fact or

Fiction?

NCJ 153850—Scott H. Decker, Ph.D.,

Professor and Chair, Department of

Criminal Justice and Criminology,

University of Missouri–St. Louis, and

Susan Pennell, Director, Criminal

Justice Research Unit, San Diego

Association of Governments: Monitoring

the Illegal Firearms Market.

Research in Progress VHS Tapes Now Available