Principal Indicators 

of 

Student Academic Histories 

in 

Postsecondary Education, 

1972-2000 

U.S. Department of Education • Institute of Education Sciences 
Principal Indicators 

of 

Student Academic Histories 

in 

Postsecondary Education, 

1972-2000 

 Clifford Adelman 

 Senior Research Analyst 

 Institute of Education Sciences 
U.S. Department of Education 

Rod Paige 

Secretary 

Institute of Education Sciences

Grover J. Whitehurst 

Director 

January 2004 

The findings, conclusions, and opinions in this publication are those of the author and do 

not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Education. This document is 

in the public domain. Authorization to reproduce it in whole or in part for educational 

purposes is granted. The full text of this publication is available at 

http://www.ed.gov/rschstat/research/pubs/prinindicat/index.html 

Suggested Citation 

Adelman, C. 2004. Principal Indicators of Student Academic Histories in Postsecondary 

Education, 1972-2000. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of 

Education Sciences. 
iii

Executive Summary

Principal Indicators is a descriptive account of the major features of the postsecondary academic

experience and attainment of traditional-age students during the period 1972–2000, with an

emphasis on the period 1992–2000. To provide this account, the report draws on three gradecohort longitudinal studies that were designed and carried out by the National Center for

Education Statistics, and within those studies, high school and (principally) college transcript

records:

• The National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS:72),

which began with a national sample of 22,500 12th graders in U.S. high schools

in the spring of 1972 and followed subgroups of the cohort to 1986. The

postsecondary transcripts for 12,600 members of this cohort were gathered in

1984, when most were 30 or 31 years old.

• The High School and Beyond Longitudinal Study of 1980 Sophomores 

(HS&B/So:80-92), which began with a national sample of 30,000 10th graders in

U.S. high schools in 1980 and followed subgroups of this cohort to 1992. The

postsecondary transcripts for 8,400 members of this cohort were gathered in 1993,

when most cohort members were 29 or 30 years old.

• The National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88/2000), which

began with a national sample of 25,000 8th graders in U.S. schools in 1988 and

followed subgroups of this cohort to 2000. The postsecondary transcripts for

8,900 members of this cohort were gathered in 2000, when most cohort members

were 26 or 27 years old. More than half the tables in Principal Indicators are

confined to the history of this—the most recent—cohort.

To provide consistency in comparing the experience of students in the three cohorts, the

populations used for the data tables in Principal Indicators are confined to those students who

were in the 12th grade in the year they were scheduled to graduate from high school. This

parameter was determined by the earliest of the grade cohorts, NLS:72, which began in the 12th

grade. Hence, the three cohorts are referred to throughout the document as

• the high school class of 1972,

• the high school class of 1982, and

• the high school class of 1992.

By confining the universe to 12th graders, high school dropouts who had not returned to be with

their scheduled class and early graduates are excluded from this account of the postsecondary

histories of the classes of 1982 and 1992.
iv

The tables in Principal Indicators cover topics of geographic mobility, postsecondary access and

degree of participation, postsecondary attainment (degrees, credits, time-to-degree), attendance

patterns, majors, curriculum clusters, grades, and remediation. A companion document—The

Empirical Curriculum: Changes in Postsecondary Course-Taking, 1972–2000—provides a more

detailed account of the curricular experience of the three grade cohorts.

Major Topics and Illustrative Observations

Demography and Geography

One of the more important changes in the behavior of postsecondary student populations over

the past quarter century is geographic and inter-institutional mobility. When students move from

institution to institution and state to state in the course of their undergraduate careers, they create

a very different dynamic for analyses of persistence and degree completion.

# The proportion of postsecondary students from second-language backgrounds doubled

(from 5 to 10 percent) between the high school classes of 1982 and 1992 (table 1.3).

# A higher proportion of postsecondary students in the high school class of 1992 came

from high schools in the five Southern and Western census divisions than was the case

for the high school class of 1982 (table 1.2).

# One out of 10 bachelor’s degree recipients in the high school class of 1992 earned the

degree in a state other than the state in which they began their college careers (table 1.6).

# Nearly 40 percent of bachelor’s degree recipients in the high school class of 1992 later

resided in a state other than the state in which they received their degree (table 1.7).

Postsecondary Attainment, Access, and Participation

Given the increasing proportion of traditional-age students continuing on to postsecondary

education after high school, policy discussions and research have come to be dominated more by

issues of retention, persistence, completion, and time-to-degree than by basic access. 

# The bachelor’s degree attainment rate for all students who earned more than 10

postsecondary credits was in the range of 45–49 percent over the history of the three

cohorts (table 2.1).

# The bachelor’s degree attainment rate for all students who earned any credits from a

bachelor’s degree granting institution was 66–67 percent over the history of the three

cohorts (table 2.2).

# Average elapsed time-to-degree for those who earned bachelor’s degrees within 8.5 years

of high school graduation in the class of 1992 was 4.56 calendar years, compared with

4.45 years for the comparable group in the class of 1982 and 4.34 years for the

comparable group in the class of 1972. (table 2.3). 

# Seventy-seven percent of the high school class of 1992 attended at least one

postsecondary institution within 8.5 years of scheduled high school graduation. This
v

access rate compares with 63 percent for the class of 1982 over an 11-year period, and 58

percent for the class of 1972 over a 12-year period. The gaps in access between the

highest and lowest socioeconomic status quintiles over the three cohorts are more

pronounced than those by race/ethnicity (table 2.4). 

# When the universe is confined to students in the class of 1992 who earned standard high

school diplomas within a year of scheduled graduation, the differences in access rates

between White and both African-American and Latino students are statistically insignificant (table 2.7) while differences by socioeconomic status quintile remain (table 2.8).

Attendance Patterns 

An examination of attendance patterns reveals increasing complex configurations, but also

enables analysts to sort out distinct groups of students to target either for enhanced precollegiate

preparation or special guidance in postsecondary institutions. Understanding these patterns is

particularly important for enrollment management at the state system and institutional levels.

# One out of eight students in the class of 1992 who entered postsecondary education

became an “incidental” student, that is, earned 10 or fewer credits and no credentials

(table 3.1). Over 40 percent of these students delayed entry to postsecondary education

(compared with 15 percent of nonincidental students); 75 percent started out in a

community college (compared with 36 percent of nonincidental students); two out of

three were enrolled for less than1 year; and 42 percent never got beyond Algebra 1 in

high school (vs. 11 percent of nonincidental students) ( table 3.2).

# One out of 10 students in the class of 1992 who entered postsecondary education earned

60 or more credits but no degree within 8.5 years of high school graduation. There were

no differences by race/ethnicity in this group, although men were more likely than

women to fall into this category (table 3.1). When compared to their peers who earned

associate’s and/or bachelor’s degrees, this group was characterized more by

noncontinuous enrollment, multi-institutional attendance, a higher proportion of courses

from which they withdrew, and a low number of credits earned in the first calendar year

of postsecondary attendance (table 3.3).

# Eighty-eight percent of the students from the class of 1992 who entered postsecondary

education persisted from their first to second year. Among those who did not persist,

two-thirds started in community colleges and 70 percent earned less than 10 credits in

their first calendar year of attendance (table 3.4).

# Fifty-seven percent of students in the class of 1992 who earned more than 10 credits

attended more than one school as undergraduates, compared with 51 percent for the class

of 1982 and 47 percent for the class of 1972. Among those who earned bachelor’s

degrees, nearly 60 percent attended more than one school as undergraduates in the class

of 1992, 58 percent in the class of 1982, and 57 percent in the class of 1972 (table 4.1).

# Among those in the class of 1992 who started in a 4-year college and earned a bachelor’s

degree, one out of five earned the degree from an institution other than the one in which

they began their postsecondary careers (table 1.6).
vi

# Of all students who began their postsecondary careers in community colleges and earned

more than 10 credits from community colleges, 36 percent of those in the class of 1992

formally transferred to a 4-year college, compared with 27 percent in the class of 1982

and 28 percent for the class of 1972. Of these transfer populations, the bachelor’s degree

attainment rate was 72 percent for the 11- and 12-year histories of the classes of 1972 and

1982 and 62 percent for the 8.5-year history of the class of 1992 (table 4.4).

# Twenty-seven percent of African-American college students in the class of 1992 attended

one of the Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) at some time in their

undergraduate careers (table 4.5).

# Forty-eight percent of Latino college students in the class of 1992 attended a Hispanic

Serving Institution (HSI) at some time in their undergraduate careers. Nearly two-thirds

of Latino students who attended HSIs started in a 2-year HSI (table 4.6).

# Nineteen percent of postsecondary participants in the class of 1992 earned college credits

while still enrolled in high school and/or by examination. For bachelor’s degree

recipients with no such acceleration credits, the average time-to-degree was 4.65 calendar

years; for those with more than 9 acceleration credits, the average time-to-degree was

4.25 calendar years (table 4.7).

Majors and Curriculum

The knowledge and skills students bring to the labor market and community life derive, in

considerable part, from what they study in their postsecondary careers. Choices of majors

among traditional-age students have been volatile, and changes in majors among minority

students have defied conventional wisdom. The extent of student participation in specific areas

of the curriculum reveals the increased importance and benefits of academic momentum

emanating from secondary school experience.

# The proportion of all students earning bachelor’s degrees in business and allied fields

rose from 17 percent in the 1970s to 25 percent in the 1980s, then fell back to 17 percent

in the 1990s (table 5.1).

# Conversely, the proportion of all students earning bachelor’s degrees in education fell

from 16 percent in the 1970s to 6 percent in the 1980s, then rebounded to 9 percent in the

1990s (table 5.1).

# Among African-American bachelor’s degree recipients, the proportion earning degrees in

engineering in the class of 1992 (12.6 percent) was nearly double that for the class of

1982 and six times that for the class of 1972. Conversely, the proportion of AfricanAmerican bachelor’s degree recipients earning degrees in education fell from 22 percent

in the 1970s to 6 percent in the 1980s and 1990s (table 5.2).

# The proportion of Asian-American bachelor’s degree recipients majoring in engineering

fell from 20 percent in the class of 1982 to 11 percent in the class of 1992 (table 5.2).

# With the exception of engineering among men and elementary education among women

(where the differences were not statistically significant), psychology was the most

popular major among bachelor’s degree recipients of the class of 1992, claiming 10
vii

percent of female bachelor’s degrees, 5 percent of male bachelor’s degrees, and 8 percent

of all bachelor’s degrees (table 5.3).

# Of community college students who earned associate’s degrees, the proportion who

earned those degrees in General Studies (the classic transfer curriculum) fell from 39

percent for the class of 1972 to 30 percent for the class of 1982, but rose to 43 percent for

the class of 1992 (table 5.4).

# The proportion of women earning associate’s degrees from community colleges in health

sciences and services ranged between five and eight times that for men in all three

cohorts. Conversely, the proportion of men earning associate’s degrees from community

colleges in engineering technology and other technical fields ranged between five and

eight times that for women in all three cohorts (table 5.4).

# Among students who earned more than 30 credits and those who earned bachelor’s

degrees, there was no significant difference between the class of 1982 and the class of

1992 in the proportion earning any credits in calculus and advanced mathematics (table

5.5).

# One of the reasons there was no significant difference in the proportion of bachelor’s

degree recipients earning postsecondary credits in calculus and advanced mathematics

between the class of 1982 and the class of 1992 may be that 23 percent of this group in

the class of 1992 had already completed calculus courses in high school, compared with

15 percent for the class of 1982 (table 5.6).

Grades and Grading

While grades provide no information about what students have actually learned, they are the

most accessible indicators of undergraduate academic performance, and are often subject to

intense public arguments about whether students are being judged more leniently than in the

past.

To help put these arguments in perspective, the national transcript samples show that

# Average postsecondary grade point averages (GPAs) for women and those who earned

bachelor’s degrees fell from the 1970s to the 1980s, then rose back to at least previous

levels in the 1990s (table 6.1).

# The most notable change in the distribution of letter grades over the history of the three

cohorts is the rise (from 4 percent for the class of 1972 to over 8 percent for the class of

1992) in the proportion of grades that were no-penalty Withdrawals (Ws) and No-Credit

Repeats (NCRs) (table 6.1). Of all grades given in open door institutions (including

community colleges), the proportion that were Ws and NCRs rose from 12 to 16 percent

between the histories of the classes of 1982 and 1992 (table 6.3).

# For the class of 1992, the higher the number of grades of W and NCR on students’

records, the lower the percentage of students who earned bachelor’s degrees. For those

with no Ws or NCRs, the bachelor’s degree attainment rate was 68 percent; for those

with 7 or more Ws and NCRs, the bachelor’s degree attainment rate was 25 percent (table

6.2a).
viii

# Among bachelor’s degree recipients in the class of 1992, those with no W or NCR 

grades completed their degrees in an average of 4.14 calendar years. With one or two

grades of W and/or NCR, the average time-to-degree jumped to 4.45 calendar years, and

with 7 or more Ws and NCRs, to 5.97 calendar years (table 6.2).

# In two of the three cohorts, students earning bachelor’s degrees from highly selective

institutions had higher undergraduate GPAs than those who earned degrees from

selective institutions, and these students, in turn, had higher GPAs than students who

earned degrees from nonselective institutions (table 6.4).

# The list of courses with the highest percentages of failures (penalty grades, Ws, and

NCRs) is dominated by remedial English and precollegiate mathematics, other

mathematics, introductory-level business and accounting, and major lower-division

distribution courses such as U.S. history surveys, computer programming, general

psychology, and introduction to fine arts (tables 6.6 and 6.7).

Remediation in Postsecondary Contexts

Remediation receives separate and special treatment because it sheds light on the interaction

between secondary and postsecondary systems and on policy actions concerning the financing of

education and the routing of underprepared students to community colleges. The presentation in

Principal Indicators highlights not only the amount but the types of remediation at issue.

# The proportion of all students who took at least one remedial course dropped from 51

percent in the class of 1982 to 42 percent in the class of 1992. This decline took place

principally for students who started in 4-year colleges, where the remediation rate fell

from 44 to 26 percent. At the same time, the proportion of students starting in

community colleges who required at least one remedial course showed no significant

change, remaining in the 61–63 percent range (table 7.1).

# The proportion of students requiring remediation in reading was 11 percent in both the

class of 1982 and the class of 1992 (table 7.1). Remedial reading was the only one of

five types or intensities of remediation that was directly related to senior-year test score

quintile in both cohorts (table 7.2); and the proportion of students requiring remedial

reading who earned no postsecondary credentials rose from 57 to 70 percent (table 7.3).
ix

Acknowledgments

Special thanks to the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers for

hosting the year-long process of data entry for the NELS postsecondary transcripts; to Tracy

Hunt-White of the National Center for Education Statistics for assistance in line-by-line reading

of student records, on-line catalogue searches, and serving as the second judge in the creation of

hand-and-eye variables; to T. R. Curtin of Research Triangle Institute for cooperation, patience,

and skill in managing the process of NELS transcript collection and creation of special weights

for NCES; to both Ilona Berkovits, formerly of the National Center for Education Statistics, and

Bruce Daniel of Pinkerton Computer Consulting for helping make the NELS transcript file

accurate and clear; and mostly to Jeffrey Owings of the National Center for Education Statistics

for shepherding the NELS project to completion.

Appreciation is also extended to the Office of Vocational and Adult Education of the U.S.

Department of Education, the division of Science Resource Statistics of the National Science

Foundation, the College Board, the Education Commission of the States, the American College

Testing Service, the State Higher Education Executive Officers Network, the Association for

Institutional Research, the American Association of Colleges and Universities, the Spencer

Foundation, and the Mellon Foundation for providing indirect assistance, advice, and/or forums

at which the frameworks and coding rules for the postsecondary transcript files could be tested

as they were being constructed.

For review of the early drafts of Principal Indicators, the author is deeply grateful to 

Prof. Alberto Cabrera of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Prof. Steven DeJardins of the

University of Michigan, Mary Golladay of the Division of Science Resource Statistics of the

National Science Foundation, Jacqueline King of the American Council on Education, Kent

Phillippe of the American Association of Community Colleges, and most of all to C. Dennis

Carroll and Paula Knepper of the National Center for Education Statistics.

The comments and suggestions of 30 external reviewers in 6 panels during the formative stages

of the NELS postsecondary transcript file construction are gratefully acknowledged. With

institutional affiliation at the time of their service, they were:

Ashok Agrawal St. Louis Community College

Luz Barreras New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology

Mildred Boyd Greater Baltimore Advanced Technology Center

May K.C. Chen Los Angeles Trade-Technical College

Jerald Dallam University of Iowa

Arthur Ellis University of Wisconsin-Madison

Dwaine Eubanks Clemson University

Thomas Gething National Foreign Language Center

Carmine Gibaldi St. Johns University (NY)

Ross Gittell University of New Hampshire

Lloyd Griffiths George Mason University
x

Michael Harsh Hagerstown Community College

Douglas Hesse Illinois State University

Richard Hendrix University of Pennsylvania

Janet Holdsworth University of Minnesota

William Kelly Catholic University of America

William Keyhoe University of Virginia

William Lauffer Prince George’s Community College

Dennis Lehman Harold Washington College (IL)

Paul Lennard Emory University

Katherine Lewis Brown University

Jose Mestre University of Massachusetts-Amherst

Myrtle Mitchell Seattle Central Community College

James Mortensen Pennsylvania State University

Linda Pratt University of Nebraska

Gene Scheiber Kansas City-Metro Community College

Eric Sheppard National Science Foundation

Jerry Smith University of Texas-Arlington

Jane Voos William Paterson University (NJ)

John Weese Texas A&M University
xi

Contents

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii

Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix 

List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii

The Nature of This Document. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii

Part 1: Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 

Part 2: Participation, Degrees, Credits, and Time: The Postsecondary 

Atttainments of Three Cohorts, 1972-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 

Part 3: The “Credit-Attainment” Account of Postsecondary Accomplishment. . 33

Part 4: Attendance Patterns: Portraits of Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Part 5: Majors and Curriculum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

Part 6: Undergraduate Grades: A Complex Story. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

Part 7: Special Topic: Remediation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

Conclusion: Missing Topics, Data Set Limitations, and Major Learning. . . . . . . 95

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

Appendixes

A: Principal Features of the NCES Grade-Cohort Longitudinal Studies . . 107

B: Decision Rules for Data Entry for the NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary 

 Transcript Study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

C: Technical Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

D: Standard Errors for Selected Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

Glossary: Variables Used, in Order of First Appearance in the Tables . . . . . . . . . 131

 
xii

List of Tables and Figures

Page

Part 1: Background

1.1 12th graders of 1992 who entered postsecondary education in 1992-93 as a 

proportion of all students who entered postsecondary education in 1992-93. . . . . 4 

1.2 Percentage distribution of race/ethnicity and second language background, 

by Census Division of high school: 1992 12th graders who were likely 

postsecondary participants (1992-2000) compared with 1982 12th graders 

who were likely postsecondary participants (1982-1993). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 

1.3 Percent of 1982 and 1992 12th graders who became postsecondary 

students who were from second language backgrounds, by race/ethnicity 

and socioeconomic status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 

1.4 Percent of 1982 and 1992 12th graders who were from second language 

backgrounds and native speakers of English by type of true first 

postsecondary institution of attendance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

1.5 State residential patterns at three points in educational histories of the high 

school Class of 1992, by race/ethnicity, selectivity of true first institution

attended, and highest degree earned by December 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

1.6 Percent of the Class of 1992 who earned bachelor’s degrees by December 

2000 in an institution other than their 1st institution of attendance and in a

state other than the state in which they first attended: by number of

postsecondary schools attended. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

1.7 Percent of students in the Class of 1992 who earned a bachelor’s degree by 

December 1999 and who resided in the same state in which they received

their bachelor’s degree in the Spring of 2000, by undergraduate major, type

of institution awarding degree, selectivity of institution awarding degree, 

and number of states in which student attended school as an undergraduate. . . . . 16

Part 2: Participation, Degrees, Credits, and Time

2.1 Highest degree attained by 12th graders in the high school classes of 1972 

(through 1984), 1982 (through 1993), and 1992 (through 2000) who earned

more than 10 postsecondary credits, by gender and race/ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

2.2 Highest degree attained by 12th graders in the high school classes of 1972 

(through 1984), 1982 (through 1993), and 1992 (through 2000) who earned

more than 10 postsecondary credits and any credits from a 4-year college, 

by gender and race/ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

2.3 Time to bachelor’s degree and average undergraduate credits earned by 

those in the high school classes of 1972, 1982, and 1992 who were awarded

bachelor’s degrees within 8.5 years of the modal high school graduation date

for their class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
xiii

Table Number Page

2.4 Percent of high school 12th graders in 1972, 1982, and 1992 who entered 

at least one postsecondary institution by the end of the cohort study period. . . . 24

2.5 Nature and extent of participation in postsecondary education for 1992 12th

graders who reported attending a postsecondary institution at any time

through December 2000, by gender and race/ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

2.6 Participation in postsecondary education and highest degree earned 

through December 2000 by 1992 NELS:88/2000 survey participants, 

by gender and race/ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

2.7 Participation in postsecondary education and highest degree earned through 

December 2000 by 1992 NELS:88/2000 survey participants who earned

standard high school diplomas by July 1993, by gender and race/ethnicity. . . . . 30

2.8 Participation in postsecondary education and highest degree earned through 

December 2000 by 1992 NELS:88/2000 survey participants who earned

standard high school diplomas by July 1993, by socioeconomic status 

percentile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

2.9 Participation in postsecondary education and highest degree earned through 

December 2000 by 1992 NELS:88/2000 survey participants who earned

standard high school diplomas by July 1993, by high school academic

curriculum intensity and academic performance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Part 3: The “Credit-Attainment” Account of Postsecondary Accomplishment

3.1 Educational attainment of 1992 12th graders who subsequently entered

postsecondary education, through December 2000, in terms of ‘credit 

attainment,’ by race/ethnicity, gender, and socioeconomic status. . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

3.2 Percent of 1992 12th graders who became incidental postsecondary students 

versus those who became nonincidental postsecondary students, by

 demographic and academic history characteristics:1992-2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

3.3 Percent of 1992 12th graders who earned 60 or more postsecondary credits

 but no degree, compared with those who earned associate’s and/or

bachelor’s degrees, by selected characteristics of academic history:

1992-2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

3.4 Retention from first to second year of postsecondary education of 1992

12th graders who entered postsecondary education at any time, 1992–2000:

Percent of students retained and not retained from year one to year two, 

and who completed one-year certificate programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Part 4: Attendance Patterns: Portraits of Mobility

4.1 Percent of 1972, 1982, and 1992 12th graders who attended one, two, or 

more than two schools as undergraduates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
xiv

Table Number Page

4.2 Percent of 12th graders in the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992 who 

attended different combinations of postsecondary institutional types. . . . . . . . . 46

4.3 Percent of 1992 12th graders who transferred between the 2-year and 4-year

sectors of higher education at some time, 1992–2000, by type of transfer

pattern and mean credits earned at different types of institutions. . . . . . . . . . . . 48

4.4 Transfer and degree completion rates of 12th graders in the classes of 1972,

1982, and 1992 who first entered postsecondary education at a community

college. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

4.5 Percentage distribution of 1992 12th grade African-American students’ 

postsecondary attendance patterns with reference to Historically Black 

Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), by attendance pattern: 1992-2000. . . . . . . 52

4.6 Percentage distribution of 1992 12th grade Latino students’ postsecondary 

attendance patterns with reference to Hispanic Serving Institutions (HSIs): 

1992–2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

4.7 Percent of 1992 12th graders who earned acceleration credits (dualenrollment and credit-by-examination), by high school background,

institutional selectivity, and degree attainment; and the impact of 

acceleration credits on time-to-degree for those who earned bachelor’s

degrees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Part 5: Majors and Curriculum

5.1 Distribution of majors of 12th graders in the high school classes of 1972, 

1982, and 1992 who earned the bachelor’s degree within 8.5 years of the

modal cohort high school graduation date, by gender. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

5.2 Distribution of majors of 12th graders in the high school classes of 1972, 

1982, and 1992 who earned the bachelor’s degree within 8.5 years of the

modal cohort high school graduation date, by race/ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

5.3 Percentage of 1992 12th graders who received bachelor’s degrees in the 

20 fields with the highest proportion of majors, by gender and selectivity

of institution awarding the bachelor’s degree. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

5.4 Distribution of associate’s degree majors of 12th graders in 1972 (through 

1984), 1982 (through 1993), and 1992 (through 2000) who earned 

associate’s degrees from community colleges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

5.5 Credits earned in selected postsecondary curriculum clusters by 1982 and 

1992 12th graders who earned at least 30 undergraduate credits. . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

5.6 Distribution of postsecondary credits in calculus and advanced mathematics

earned by bachelor’s degree recipients among 1982 and 1992 12th graders,

by highest level of mathematics studied in high school. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

5.7 Credits earned by bachelor’s degree recipients among 1992 12th graders, 

in selected curriculum clusters outside the student’s major. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
xv

Table Number Page

5.8 Credits earned in selected curriculum clusters by 1992 12th graders who

were awarded associate’s degrees by community colleges, 1992–2000, 

by associate’s degree major. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

Part 6: Undergraduate Grades: A Complex Story

6.1 Distribution of undergraduate letter grades of 1972, 1982, and 1992 12th

graders, and average undergraduate grade point averages (GPAs) of 

1972, 1982, and 1992 12th graders, by gender, level of educational attainment, 

and (for bachelor’s degree recipients), bachelor’s degree major. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

6.2a Relationship of number of no-penalty course withdrawals (Ws) and no-credit

repeats (NCRs) to highest degree earned for 1992 12th graders, 1992–2000. . . . 79

6.2b Relationship of number of no-penalty course withdrawals (Ws) and

 no-credit repeats (NCRs) to time-to-degree for 1992 12th graders who

earned bachelor’s degrees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

6.3 Distribution of undergraduate grades by institutional selectivity: All 

 institutions attended by 12th graders in the Class of 1982 (1982–1993) and

12th graders in the Class of 1992 (1992–2000). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

6.4 Undergraduate grade point averages (GPAs) of 1972, 1982, and 1992 

12th graders who earned bachelor’s degrees, by selectivity of the institution 

awarding the bachelor’s degree. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

6.5 Letter grade distribution in selected high-enrollment-volume undergraduate 

courses taken by 1992 12th graders, 1992–2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

6.6 The 20 undergraduate courses with the highest proportions of Withdrawal (W)

 and No Credit Repeat (NCR) grades taken by 1992 12th graders: 1992–2000. . 84

6.7 The 20 undergraduate courses with the highest proportions of failure/penalty 

grades taken by 1992 12th graders: 1992–2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

6.8 The 20 undergraduate courses with the highest proportions of “A” grades

taken by 1992 12th graders:1992–2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Part 7: Special Topic: Remediation

7.1 Percent of 1982 and 1992 12th graders who took remedial courses in 

postsecondary institutions, by type and intensity of remedial work, by

timing of postsecondary entry and type of first institution attended. . . . . . . . . . . 90

7.2 Percent of 1982 and 1992 12th graders who took remedial courses in 

postsecondary institutions, by type and intensity of remedial work, by 

selected high school background and demographic factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

7.3 Highest degree earned by 1982 and 1992 12th graders who entered 

postsecondary education, by type and amount of postsecondary remedial

coursework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
xvi

Table Number Page

Appendix D

D-1 Standard Errors for Table 2.1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

D-2 Standard Errors for Table 2.2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

D-3 Standard Errors for Table 2.3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

Figure Number Page

1 Major fields included in the 12 aggregate categories of major fields 

 used in Principal Indicators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

2 Course categories and codes included in the analysis of postsecondary

remediation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
xvii

The Nature of This Document

Principal Indicators is a presentation of data informing important questions that have been asked

by state legislatures, the Congress, the media, and the general public concerning postsecondary

student access, attainment, attendance patterns, curriculum participation, and academic

performance over the past quarter century. These topics are the major components of

undergraduate student academic history.

The data are derived mostly from the postsecondary transcript files of three overlapping gradecohort longitudinal studies designed and conducted by the National Center for Education

Statistics:

• National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS:72/86). The

data span 1972–1986.

• High School & Beyond Longitudinal Study of 1980 Sophomores (HS&BSo:80/92). The data span 1980–1993.

• National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88/2000). The data span

1988–2000.

The topics and tables in Principal Indicators are successors to those in Part I of The New College

Course Map and Transcript Files (Adelman 1999a), which covered only the first two of the

above longitudinal studies cohorts, and did so in less detail. With the recent release of the

NELS:88/2000 postsecondary transcript files, more contemporary data are available, and

analysts can begin to construct comparative trends covering the histories of students as they

made their way into and through postsecondary education from their high school years through

their late twenties.

What Principal Indicators does is simply to arrange and set forth the data, introduce the topics,

provide pointers for reading the tables along with selected observations on statistical significance

and potential connections to policy issues, and raise questions and hypotheses for further

research and investigation.

There are 46 tables in Principal Indicators. Twelve of these tables compare performance across

all three longitudinal studies cohorts; 9 are confined to comparisons between the HS&B/

Sophomore cohort and the NELS:88/2000; and 25 are derived wholly from NELS:88/2000.

The nature of transcript-based data sets is such that for estimates involving an event with a

unique date, for example, the award of a bachelor’s degree, the records for all three longitudinal

studies can be truncated at a specific moment in time. The time period chosen in those cases is

that of the shortest of the longitudinal studies, NELS:88/2000, which extended for 8.5 years

beyond the modal high school graduation date of June 1992. For other estimates involving

processes that have no clearly identifiable dates, the entire cohort history is used. For example,

in presenting the phenomenon of transfer from a community college to a 4-year college, it is

impossible to determine precisely when the transfer took place if the student is engaged in
xviii

alternating enrollment between the two types of institutions. The transcripts do not tell us when

the 4-year college formally recognized the transfer. The estimate is thus of the status of the

student at the end of the cohort history. This elasticity of the outermost date is used even though

97.6 percent of the undergraduate course-taking activity in the NLS:72 (a 12-year history) and

96.3 percent of the undergraduate course-taking activity for the HS&B/Sophomore cohort (an

11-year history) took place within the first 8.5 years following the modal high school graduation

dates for those cohorts. 

Organization of The Report

The order of presentation within Principal Indicators is based primarily on the prominence and

frequency of the questions in contemporary policy discussions of postsecondary education

(exclusive of financial aid). After an introduction that focuses on the mobility of contemporary

traditional-age undergraduates, the presentation turns first to the bottom line of degree

completion, then follows the story line from access through types of participation, alternative

ways of looking at student histories, attendance patterns, majors and curriculum participation,

and grades. The presentation concludes with a section on remediation. Remediation is last, not

because it is less important, rather because it is a different type of topic that deserves special

treatment.

Principal Indicators does not cover all potential topics or configurations of the data that can be

drawn from the three longitudinal studies. Its companion volume—The Empirical Curriculum:

Changes in Postsecondary Course-Taking, 1972–2000—provides much greater detail on the

content of postsecondary education, at least in terms of the curriculum as experienced by

students (as opposed to the curriculum set forth in college catalogs).

Reading Guide and Technical Keys to Judgment in Principal Indicators

The data are presented with Taylor-series standard errors produced by AM, a software program

developed by Jon Cohen and colleagues at the American Institutes for Research. The standard

errors are critical to judging whether estimates are statistically significant. For a brief guide to

the use of standard errors and other technical issues related to the data, please see appendix C.

A few terms have special meanings in Principal Indicators. The terms, as defined below, are

used throughout this document. The most important of these are

# True first institution of attendance. The “true” first institution of attendance

excludes (1) colleges and community colleges in which the student was enrolled

prior to high school graduation; (2) institutions in which the student was enrolled

during the summer immediately following high school graduation and prior to fall

term postsecondary entry (unless the institution was the same in both periods);

and (3) “false starts,” that is, cases in which the student enrolled, but then

withdrew during the first term of attendance, only to enroll and complete course

work in a different institution at a later point in time (in these cases, the second

institution is the “true first institution”). The true first date of attendance is the
xix

first month of enrollment at the true first institution. True first institution/date and

first institution/date are used interchangeably throughout this document.

# Likely postsecondary participants. The universe of likely postsecondary

participants in the NELS:88/2000 transcript-based files consists of (1) all students

for whom at least one in-scope transcript was received (weighted N=1.95m) plus

(2) students for whom transcripts were requested but not received (weighted

N=115k), yet who met one of the following criteria (in order of selection): (1)

loan disbursement records were found in the National Student Direct Loan

System (NSDLS) files; (2) in 1994, the student provided an account of the

methods used to finance postsecondary education in combination with identifying

institutions attended; (3) the student’s high school record was equal to or higher

than the mean for known 4-year college attendees in class rank/grade point

average, academic curriculum intensity, number of Advanced Placement courses,

and combined SAT/ACT test scores; (4) the student’s account of his/her

postsecondary history in 2000 included multi-institutional attendance,

simultaneous enrollment, enrollment in 2000, and credential earned; (5) the

student’s 2000 account of his/her postsecondary history included change of

major, full-time/part-time status, and stop-out periods; and, (6) in 2000, the

student provided academic, financial, family, or job-related reasons for leaving

postsecondary education without earning a credential.

# Elapsed calendar year versus academic year. This is an important distinction

when talking about how much time it takes students to earn credentials. The

traditional academic year, whether semester or quarter calendars, is 9 months. A

student who entered college in September 1998 and graduated with a bachelor’s

degree in June 2002 is said to have earned a “4-year degree” on time, no matter

when the student was enrolled between those dates, and no matter whether the

academic calendar system(s) in the institution(s) in which they were enrolled

were semester, quarter, trimester, clock hour, irregular, or some combination of

these. Yet the elapsed calendar time between those dates is not 4 years, but 3.75

years. If the student had not received the degree until December 2002, the

elapsed time would have been 4.25 calendar years and 4.5 academic years. There

is always a .25 difference between the two metrics. This document employs the

elapsed calendar year as its metric because of the extent of multi-institutional

attendance, use of summer terms, accumulation of credits by examination and in

special terms with no set parameters such as a semester, and other nonstandard

uses of time in postsecondary education.

# Credits. All postsecondary credits, including clock hours, have been

standardized to a semester metric.
xx

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1

Part 1: 

Background

Principal Indicators is primarily a reference work. Like its companion, The Empirical

Curriculum: Changes in Postsecondary Course-Taking, 1972–2000, it is designed for use by 

• higher education administrators, faculty, and institutional research officers;

• state higher education offices; 

• national organizations concerned with education and training after high school; 

• researchers who focus on postsecondary education issues; and

• human resource development personnel concerned with the quality of the workforce.

These two documents, and the Web-posted taxonomy of postsecondary courses that accompanies

them, are successors to The New College Course Map and Transcript Files (U.S. Department of

Education, 1995; 2nd edition, 1999), known as the CCM. The data for Principal Indicators are

derived mostly from the postsecondary transcript files of three overlapping grade-cohort

longitudinal studies designed and conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics. The

three studies are called “grade cohort” studies because each of them began with a nationally

representative sample of students in a specific school grade, and followed the same students

through high school and into early adulthood. The three studies are:

• National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS:72), which

began with a sample of 22,500 12th graders, and followed subpanels of this

cohort for 14 years until 1986, when they were 32 or 33 years old. Hereafter, this 

cohort will be referred to as the “Class of 1972" or “1972 12th graders.”

• High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort (HS&B/So), which began with a

sample of over 30,000 10th graders in 1980, and followed subpanels of this cohort 

for 12 years until 1992, when they were 28 or 29 years old. Hereafter, this cohort

will be referred to as the “Class of 1982” or “1982 12th graders,” the year they

were scheduled to graduate from high school.

• National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88/2000), which began

with a sample of 25,000 8th graders in 1988, and followed subpanels of this

cohort for 12 years until 2000, when they were 26 or 27 years old. Hereafter, this

cohort will be referred to as the “Class of 1992,” or “1992 12th graders,” the

year they were scheduled to graduate from high school.

The characteristics of each of these longitudinal studies are described in appendix A. Most

important to this document is the fact that all three studies included the collection, coding, and

analysis of the postsecondary transcripts of students who reported that they had attended

colleges, community colleges, and postsecondary trade schools, as follows:

• For the Class of 1972, the transcripts were collected in 1984, when the students

were 30 or 31 years old. 
2

• For the Class of 1982, the transcripts were collected in 1993, when the students

were 29 or 30 years old.

• For the Class of 1992, the transcripts were collected in 2000, when the students

were 26 or 27 years old.

Given these different transcript collection dates, and the ages of the students at the time of

collection, it appears that the longer the history, the greater the opportunity for students to enter,

participate, and complete credentials in postsecondary education. Some of the tables presented

in Part 2 of this report compare the data from all three cohorts without adjustments. Other tables

require a common censoring point for accurate comparison—for example, on the time it took to

earn degrees. When a common time frame is required, the shortest of the postsecondary periods

in the longitudinal studies, that of the Class of 1992 (8.5 years after the modal high school

graduation date) is used.

In addition, all three data sets include high school records (for the Classes of 1982 and 1992,

these records are in the form of high school transcript files) and test scores (SAT, ACT, AP, and

a special general learned abilities test that was administered to each cohort). In sum, in addition

to survey data, each of these data sets includes a considerable amount of “unobtrusive evidence”

(Webb et al. 1966) that enables the analyst to construct complex educational histories.

Primary Focus of This Presentation: The High School Class of 1992 (NELS:88/2000)

While all three age-cohort longitudinal studies are used in the presentation of data in Principal

Indicators, the principal focus of the tables and storylines that follow is on the High School

Class of 1992. It is the most recent of the data sets, and its information hence comes closest to

shedding light on key topics of current concern in higher education. These topics include timeto-degree, multi-institutional attendance, the extent of participation in postsecondary education

by different populations, and potential measures of institutional and system accountability.

While the postsecondary transcript files in all three longitudinal studies were edited by the same

individual and reviewed by external faculty and administrative panels following the same

procedures and rules, and while the variable definitions and coding systems were held constant,

the Class of 1992 data files were constructed in a way that yielded a wider range of information

than that found in its two predecessors. 

The Class of 1972 (NLS:72) and Class of 1982 (HS&B/Sophomore Cohort) postsecondary

transcript files were first built by contractors who then presented electronic files for editing and

recoding. For the Class of 1992 (NELS:88/2000), the contractor (Research Triangle Institute)

was responsible for the complex process of gathering the transcripts from institutional registrars

(see Curtin, Ingels, Wu, and Heuer 2002), but the process of data entry was combined with

editorial review and monitored at a secure site by U.S. Department of Education staff. The

American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers in Washington, DC, was

the host organization for the data entry phase. This was a significant change for two reasons: 
3

First, with paper records in hand, and the host organization representing America’s registrars,

problems of interpretation could be referred instantly to those local officials responsible for the

preparation and maintenance of student records. Ambiguities concerning degree awards and

transfer data, for example, were resolved quickly and authoritatively. Second, the paper records

include information on such items as the location of the student’s high school, high school

graduation date and diploma type, and, sometimes, precollege test scores—such as those of the

SAT and ACT—that can be compared with the extant electronic record. In the case of the Class

of 1992 (NELS:88/2000), the electronic records concerning secondary school education were

created in 1992. The postsecondary transcripts collected in 2000 enabled the data entry process

to fill in cases of missing information such as high school locations, graduation dates, SAT and

ACT scores, and cases in which SAT Verbal and Math scores had been inverted or ACT sub-test

scores had been entered in the wrong order in the previous NELS:88/2000 electronic files.

In sum, the presence of the paper copies of transcripts in a combined data entry/editorial process

for the Class of 1992 allowed for a more accurate and detailed account of postsecondary (and

secondary school) histories than those of its two predecessors. A technical account of decision

rules and other key features of the preparation of the transcript files is presented in appendix B.

Representativeness, Geographical Distribution, and Demography of the NELS 

 Postsecondary Cohort

There are three sources of large-scale national cohorts for the study of postsecondary education

experience. Two of these present event cohorts, with the event defined as entering

postsecondary education for the first time: (1) the Cooperative Institutional Research Project’s

(CIRP) annual (since 1966) survey of entering freshmen, and the occasional longitudinal study

that is spun from that survey (see, e.g., Astin, Tsui, and Avalos 1996); and (2) the Beginning

Postsecondary Students (BPS) studies, a subset of the congressionally mandated National

Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS), which has seen two longitudinal iterations: a 5-year

study (1989-1994) and a 6-year study (1995-2001). The universe for the CIRP surveys is

determined by the voluntary participation of institutions, subsequently weighted to yield national

norms (see, e.g., Sax, Astin, Korn, and Mahoney 1995). The universe for the BPS longitudinal

studies is determined by the representative national sampling framework of postsecondary

students, undergraduate and graduate, enrolled in institutions participating in Title IV federal

financial aid programs (Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000).

While not invoked in this document, the CIRP and BPS are cited so that the reader sees the

difference between “event cohort” histories and the “grade cohort” histories used here. While

CIRP and BPS have many virtues, neither one can provide data on access to postsecondary

education or linkages between postsecondary performance and detailed, documented precollege

student background, and neither one is grounded in transcript data.

The third source for the analysis of postsecondary experience lies in the grade-cohort

longitudinal studies such as the NELS:88/2000. These studies are not designed to yield

representative samples of first-time college freshmen or undergraduates in general. The
1

Unlike its predecessors, the NELS:88/2000 longitudinal study sample was “refreshed” in 1990 (10th

grade) and 1992 (12th grade) so as to be representative of the in-school population in those years. These

refreshings resulted in complex panel weights. In addition to matching the Class of 1972 and 1982 frames, panel

weights based on the 1992 sampling frame were chosen for Principal Indicators because 1992 was also the year in

which high school transcripts were gathered, and a number of the tables link data based on high school transcripts to

postsecondary access, attendance patterns, and attainment.

2

Some of the students classified as “early graduates,” transfers, and dropouts actually received on-time

(1982) diplomas.

4

NELS:88/2000 sample used in Principal Indicators consists of a cohort originally formed in the

8th grade in 1988 and refreshed in 1992 so as to be representative of 12th graders in 1992. The

weights used in Principal Indicators combine that sampling frame with postsecondary status1

But just how representative is the cohort when set against national data on first-time freshmen? 

Table 1.1 sets forth some basic data from which to judge this issue.

Table 1.1. 12th graders in 1992 who entered postsecondary education in 1992-93 as a 

 proportion of all students who entered in 1992-93

Of the universe of 12th graders in 1992, those who first 

enrolled in postsecondary education in 1992-93 1.715 Million

All first-time undergraduates in 1992-93 2.184 Million

NELS students (1992 12th graders) as a proportion of the

1992-93 first-time undergraduate universe 78.5%

SOURCE: For first-time undergraduates, see Snyder. T., Digest of Education Statistics, 2001, table 182 (p. 217). 

For the NELS:88/2000, the universe consists of 12th graders in 1992 for whom transcripts were received. 

Given these data, one can say only that, while accounting for nearly four out of five entering

postsecondary students in their modal year of high school graduation and college entry, the 12th

graders of the NELS:88/2000 are not a proxy group for entering postsecondary students. Nor

were the 12th graders of the NLS-72 and High School & Beyond/Sophomores in their time. So

what populations are represented in the presentation of the evidence in Principal Indicators? 

The answer to the question was determined by the oldest of these cohorts, the NLS-72, where a

nationally representative sample of students was selected in the 12th grade. Most of them

graduated from high school on time in the spring of 1972, but some did not. For the High School

& Beyond/Sophomore cohort, which was first sampled in the 10th grade, the 12th grade (1982)

panel, limited to those who were in school in 1982 and those who received high school diplomas

in 1982,2 was selected to match the NLS-72. Again, most of these students graduated on time in

1982, but some did not. For the NELS:88/2000, the same procedure was followed, with the

universe set to everyone who was in the 12th grade in1992 along with those who received
3

Some of the students classified as not in the 12th grade received regular diplomas in the spring of 1992. 

General Education Diplomas (GEDs) awarded in 1992 were excluded.

4

 The NCES grade cohort longitudinal studies are not designed for state-level analysis. The smallest unit

of geographical order in the longitudinal studies data sets is the Census Division, and the nine Census Divisions are

composed as follows: New England: CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT; Mid-Atlantic: DE, NJ, NY, PA; East North

Central: IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, WI; West North Central: IA, KS, MO, NE, ND, SD; South Atlantic: DC, FL, GA,

MD, NC, SC, VA, WVA; East South Central: AL, KY, MS, TN; West South Central: AR, LA, OK, TX; Mountain:

AZ, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, UT, WY; and Pacific: AK, CA, HI, OR, WA.

5

For both the HS&B/So and the NELS:88/2000, second language dominance was determined by (1)

student responses concerning their native language, the dominant language of their households, and the extent to

which they conversed with their mothers in a language other than English; and (2) the presence of English as a

Second Language (ESL) coursework on high school and/or college transcripts and/or coursework labeled “X[a

language other than English] for Native Speakers.”

6

The data are not directly in the table. For the HS&B/So, the 5 Census Divisions commanded 47.6 percent

of enrollments (s.e. = 1.01); for the NELS:88/2000, the same 5 Census Divisions commanded 54.5 percent of

enrollments (s.e. = 1.12).

5

regular high school diplomas in the spring of 1992.3 So, in all three cases, the population

represented consists of nationally representative samples of those who were scheduled to be

12th graders in the year they were surveyed (see appendix C for a technical account of the

weights and flags used to ensure that the data reflect these populations).

The first illustration of the precollegiate sampling frame in relation to matriculation behavior lies

in the changing demographics and geography of postsecondary education. Table 1.2 presents the

distribution of postsecondary participants in two of the longitudinal studies, the Class of 1982

(1982-1993) and the Class of 1992 (1992-2000), according to the Census Division4 location of

the students’ high schools, by race/ethnicity and second language background.5 In looking

across the changes in the composition of these cohorts by Census Division, the reader will note 

• when one combines the 5 Census Divisions of the West and South, an increasing

share of students (from 48 percent to 55 percent),6 parallel to general population

trends (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1984; U.S. Bureau of the Census 1993);

• statistically significant increases in the proportion of students from second

language backgrounds in New England, the Mid-Atlantic states, the West South

Central states, and the Pacific states;

• statistically significant increases in overall minority participation from high

schools in New England and the Pacific states;

• the higher proportion of African-Americans among postsecondary participants

who graduated from high schools in the South Atlantic and East South Central

states compared to the proportion of African-Americans among postsecondary
7

While not included in this definition (or in the tables), it is worth noting that, of all students who earned

more than 10 postsecondary credits, 11 percent of Asian students (s.e.=2.54) and 15 percent of Latino students

(s.e.=2.07) earned credits for "heritage" language study in higher education. Among those who earned bachelor’s

degrees, 18 percent of Asian students (s.e.=4.02) and 23 percent of Latino students (s.e.=3.18) earned postsecondary

credits for "heritage" language study. The difference between Asian and Latino students at the bachelor’s level is

not statistically significant.

6

participants who graduated from high schools, for example, in the Mid-Atlantic

states or the Pacific states;

• the higher proportion of Latino students among postsecondary participants who

graduated from high schools in the West South Central, Mountain, and Pacific

states compared to the proportion of Latino students among postsecondary

participants who graduated from high school, for example, in the Mid-Atlantic

states or the South Atlantic states; and

• the notable increases in the proportion of Asian-American postsecondary

participants who graduated from high schools in New England, the Mid-Atlantic,

East North Central, and Pacific states.

The high school class of 1972 is not included in the comparisons of table 1.2 and table 1.3

because the definition of second language background in the NLS-72 was based wholly on the

dominant language spoken by the student’s parents. The definition for the high school classes of

1982 and 1992 was a more complex construction that focused on the student’s first language,

dominant language, and language with which parents were addressed in the home7

.
7

Table 1.2. Percentage distribution of race/ethnicity and second language background, by

 Census Division of high school: 1992 12th graders who were likely 

 postsecondary participants (1992-2000) compared with 1982 12th graders who 

 were likely postsecondary participants (1982-1993) 

Percentage distribution of students Percent of 

by race/ethnicity students Percent of from second cohort in

African- American language Census

White American Latino Asian Indian backgrounds Division

New England

 Class of 1992 76.4 8.6 8.2 4.6 2.2 9.2 4.8

 (5.33) (3.46) (3.32) (1.36) (1.71) (1.95) (0.65)

 Class of 1982 93.5 3.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 4.1 7.1

(1.57) (1.16) (0.81) (0.23) (0.09) (1.24) (0.76)

Mid-Atlantic

 Class of 1992 80.1 9.4 5.8 4.4 0.4 10.3 15.2

(2.63) (2.04) (1.06) (0.67) (0.13) (1.37) (1.04)

 Class of 1982 80.8 11.5 5.0 1.4 0.7 6.9 16.1

(2.20) (1.85) (0.73) (0.25) (0.26) (0.92) (0.81)

East North Central

 Class of 1992 87.1 4.8 3.6 4.3 0.2 5.0 17.0

(1.95) (0.90) (0.85) (1.23) (0.07) (1.09) (0.87)

 Class of 1982 87.2 8.1 3.1 1.2 0.4 3.6 20.7

(1.45) (1.30) (0.60) (0.24) (0.13) (0.62) (0.82)

West North Central

 Class of 1992 94.1 2.5 2.2 1.1 0.1 1.8 8.2

(1.23) (0.82) (0.87) (0.25) (0.07) (0.52) (0.58

 Class of 1982 94.7 2.1 1.6 0.2 0.5 1.6 8.7

(1.04) (0.82) (0.50) (0.12) (0.22) (053) (0.53)

South Atlantic

 Class of 1992 62.8 27.1 4.4 3.9 1.9 6.6 16.9

(3.42) (3.43) (1.14) (1.07) (1.11) (1.48) (0.95)

 Class of 1982 72.7 21.4 3.6 1.7 0.3 4.4 14.6

(2.50) (2.37) (0.65) (0.37) (0.13) (0.70) (0.79)

See notes at end of table.
8

Table 1.2. Percentage distribution of race/ethnicity and second language background, by

 Census Division of high school:1992 12th graders who were likely 

 postsecondary participants, 1992-2000, compared with 1982 12th graders who 

 were likely postsecondary participants, 1982-1993–Continued

Percentage distribution of students

by race/ethnicity Percent of 

 students Percent of from second cohort in

African- American language Census

White American Latino Asian Indian backgrounds Division 

East South Central

 Class of 1992 79.0 18.2 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.7 6.1

(4.74) (4.84) (0.37) (0.37) (0.46) (0.27) (0.54)

 Class of 1982 80.2 17.9 0.9 0.4 0.6 1.1 5.3

(3.66) (3.60) (0.59) (0.23) (0.25) (0.51) (0.29)

West South Central

 Class of 1992 68.5 11.4 18.2 1.6 0.3 12.6 11.2

(3.88) (2.77) (3.18) (0.34) (0.13) (2.41) (0.70)

 Class of 1982 71.7 15.3 11.1 0.4 1.4 6.1 9.3

(2.89) (2.66) (1.36) (0.17) (0.60) (0.99) (0.65)

Mountain

 Class of 1992 71.6 0.3 21.8 3.5 2.8 16.4 6.5

(7.05) (0.19) (7.24) (0.98) (1.47) (6.48) (0.66)

 Class of 1982 78.0 0.5 13.8 1.5 6.1 9.8 5.0

(4.65) (0.38) (2.83) (0.56) (3.16) (2.76) (0.40)

Pacific

 Class of 1992 56.0 5.1 22.4 15.3 1.2 25.3 14.1

(3.89) (1.27) (3.08) (2.11) (0.73) (3.55) (0.80)

 Class of 1982 72.8 6.7 11.1 6.9 1.4 9.8 13.1

(2.40) (1.42) (1.26) (1.12) (0.31) (1.21) (0.76)

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of 12th graders who became likely postsecondary participants. Weighted Ns: Class

of 1982 = 2.40M; Class of 1992 = 2.11M. (2) Row totals for race/ethnicity may not sum to 100.0 percent

because of rounding. Column totals for percent of cohort may not sum due to rounding. (3) Standard errors are in

parentheses.

SOURCES: High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary

Transcript File, NCES 2003-402.
9

Second Language Populations in the Postsecondary System

The reader of table 1.2 may be struck by the statistically significant increases in the participation

of students from second language backgrounds in four of the nine Census Divisions (New

England, Mid-Atlantic, West South Central, and Pacific). Some of those increases are rather

substantial. This observation calls for a closer look at overall change in the demography of

language over the histories of the two cohorts, as displayed in tables 1.3 and 1.4.

Table 1.3. Percent of 1982 and 1992 12th graders who became postsecondary students 

 who were from second language backgrounds, by race/ethnicity and 

 socioeconomic status

Percent of students who were from second language backgrounds

Class of 1982 Class of 1992

All 5.3 (0.33) 10.2 (0.90)

Race/ethnicity

White 1.8 (0.22) 2.3 (0.33)

African-American 1.7 (0.58) 4.3 (2.06)

Latino 44.3 (2.77) 56.0 (3.81)

Asian 57.7 (3.67) 52.0 (3.73)

American Indian 17.2 (5.49) 18.2 (8.07)

SES quintile

81st-100th percentile (high) 2.4 (0.34) 6.2 (0.75)

61st-80th percentile 4.1 (0.54) 5.8 (1.11)

41st-60th percentile 3.8 (0.49) 6.2 (0.99)

21st-40th percentile 6.2 (0.77) 11.4 (1.48)

1st-20th percentile (low) 15.8 (1.58) 37.1 (3.99)

NOTES: The universes for each cohort consist of 12th graders who became postsecondary participants. Weighted 

Ns: Class of 1982 = 2.01M; Class of 1992 = 2.09M. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCES: High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary

Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.

In table 1.3, one notes the increase in the proportion of Latino postsecondary participants who

met the criteria for second language dominance used for analyses of the Class of 1982 and the

Class of 1992 (student identified a language other than English as the first language they learned,

and the dominant language of their households, indicated that they conversed with their mothers

frequently in a language other than English, or presented high school and/or college transcripts

with ESL coursework or coursework labeled “X [a language other than English] for Native

Speakers”). Also notable is that there was no statistically significant difference in the proportion

of Asian and Latino students from second language backgrounds in the Class of 1992, and that

roughly one out of six American Indian postsecondary students came from a second language 
8

The NELS:88/2000 files allow for a complex analysis of the educational histories of Latino and AsianAmerican populations by generational status. For a treatment of these issues in relation to non-English dominant

households, see Bradby 1992 and Kaufman, Chavez, and Lauen 1999.

10

background in both the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992. The other distinctive feature of

table 1.3 is the comparative concentration of students from second language backgrounds within

the lowest SES quintile.8

Table 1.4 is included simply to demonstrate that, among students from second language

backgrounds, there is no difference in the percent for whom the “true” first postsecondary

institution of attendance is a 4-year college versus a community college, whereas for native

speakers of English, there has been a consistent and statistically significant spread between the

percent starting in a 4-year college and the percent first entering a community college.

 

Reminder: The “true” first institution of attendance excludes (1) colleges and community

colleges in which the student was enrolled prior to high school graduation; (2) institutions in

which the student was enrolled during the summer immediately following high school

graduation and before fall term postsecondary entry (unless the institution was the same in both

periods); and (3) “false starts,” that is, cases in which the student enrolled but then withdrew

during the first term of attendance, only to enroll and complete coursework in a different

institution at a later point in time (in these cases, the second institution is the true first

institution). This definition of true first institution of attendance is used throughout this

document.

 

Table 1.4. Percent of 1982 and 1992 12th graders who were from second language

 backgrounds and native speakers of English by type of first true postsecondary

 institution of attendance

Class of 1982 Class of 1992

Second language background

Any 4-year 48.1 (2.77) 47.8 (3.28)

Community college 43.8 (2.74) 46.4 (3.41)

Other sub-baccalaureate 8.1 (1.58) 5.8 (1.48)

Native speakers of English

Any 4-year 53.4 (0.99) 55.7 (1.15)

Community college 39.1 (0.97) 39.6 (1.16)

Other sub-baccalaureate 7.5 (0.48) 4.7 (0.38)

NOTES: The universes for each cohort consist of 12th graders who became postsecondary participants. Weighted

Ns: Class of 1982 = 2.01M; Class of 1992 = 2.09M. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. (3) Column totals for

first institution of attendance may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. 

SOURCES: High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary

Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
11

 Geographic Mobility of the High School Class of 1992 

Unlike its predecessors, the history of the Class of 1992 allows the analyst to track the

geographic mobility of the student population, principally with reference to the state locations of

schools attended, and at four points in time: (1) high school; (2) true first postsecondary

institution attended; (3) postsecondary institution awarding the student’s highest undergraduate

degree; and (4) the student’s final interview in 2000. This feature of the data set is helpful in 

determining the permeability of state borders, and provides a background national tapestry

against which those responsible for state postsecondary planning can assess the likelihood of

students moving across state lines after initial entry in higher education, as well as estimating the

likelihood that students will remain within state after earning credentials.

Table 1.5. State residential patterns at three points in educational histories of the high

 school Class of 1992, by race/ethnicity, selectivity of true first institution 

 attended, and highest degree earned by December 2000

State of residence was the same for:

High school, High school 1st institution High school [No 

1st institution and attended and and state

attended, and 1st institution 2000 interview 2000 interview was

 2000 interview attended the same] 

All 66.0 (1.02) 13.9 (0.69) 4.3 (0.41) 9.6 (0.61) 6.2 (0.45)

By race/ethnicity

White 63.5 (1.12) 15.5 (0.81) 4.3 (0.42) 9.7 (0.64) 6.9 (0.53)

African-American 67.8 (3.87) 7.0 (1.02) 6.2 (2.37) 14.7 (3.05) 4.3 (1.57)

Latino 81.1 (2.68) 8.4 (2.09) 2.2 (1.17) 4.7 (0.98) 3.6 (1.01)

Asian 68.9 (3.53) 17.6 (3.27) 3.3 (0.74) 6.1 (1.23) 4.1 (0.87)

By selectivity of

1st institution

Highly selective 22.8 (4.58) 10.3 (3.48) 12.6 (4.82) 20.0 (4.45) 34.4 (5.30)

Selective 47.6 (2.83) 18.7 (1.89) 4.2 (0.77) 15.3 (1.78) 14.3 (1.75)

Nonselective 61.7 (1.33) 15.7 (0.91) 4.2 (0.44) 11.9 (0.93) 6.5 (0.62)

Open door 79.0 (1.48) 11.5 (1.21) 3.4 (0.72) 4.8 (0.74) 1.4 (0.22)

Not ratable 65.7 (5.70) 8.9 (3.29) 10.4 (4.16) 11.5 (5.32) 3.5 (1.32)

By highest degree

None 74.3 (1.46) 11.6 (1.17) 3.7 (0.68) 7.9 (0.85) 2.4 (0.29)

Certificate 77.7 (4.23) 10.6 (4.01) 1.5 (0.55) 8.2 (2.15) 1.9 (0.85)

Associate’s 79.0 (2.71) 8.2 (1.70) 3.0 (0.72) 6.5 (1.87) 3.3 (1.37)

Bachelor’s 55.8 (1.53) 16.7 (0.94) 5.7 (0.72) 11.5 (1.02) 10.3 (0.90)

Graduate 48.5 (3.26) 22.5 (2.68) 3.1 (0.75) 13.4 (1.73) 12.4 (2.37)

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of all 1992 (12th grade) NELS panelists who became postsecondary participants for

whom the state pattern could be determined. Weighted N = 2.135M. (2) Rows may not sum to 100.0 percent

because of rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript

Files, NCES 2003-402.
12

Table 1.5 presents the distribution of student mobility using three reference points: the state of

the student’s high school, the state of the student’s true first institution of attendance, and the

state in which the student was living at the time of his or her computer-assisted telephone

interview in 2000. The reader will note that

• roughly two out of three students resided in the same state at all three reference

points;

• the more selective the true first institution of attendance, the more likely students

were to cross state lines at some moment in their education and residence history

to age 26 or 27;

• Latinos were the least likely of the major race/ethnicity groups to cross state lines

in their education and residence history to age 26 or 27;

• those who earn bachelor’s degrees or higher were more likely to cross state lines

at some moment in their education and residence history to age 26 or 27; and

• roughly 1 out of 10 students initially went out-of-state for postsecondary

education but returned to the state of his or her high school by age 26 or 27.

Tables 1.6 and 1.7 focus on the inter-state and inter-institutional mobility of bachelor’s degree

recipients of the Class of 1992. These have become increasingly important dimensions of

student behavior that shed light on institutional accountability policies. Students may leave

institution A and cross state lines to enroll in institution B for reasons ranging from the search

for the right academic program to health considerations; however, institution A is held

accountable for the fact that the student left, and, it is assumed, is a college dropout. Institutions

and states currently do not have the capacity to track students across state lines and discover, for

example, that the students completed degrees at institution B. But the transcript files of the

national grade-cohort longitudinal studies can do just that, and thus encourage the development

of tracking systems for accountability purposes. Table 1.6 asks where the student began

postsecondary education and where the bachelor’s degree was awarded and how many

institutions were involved between those two markers. The most basic conclusions of table 1.6

are:

• Of all bachelor’s degree recipients (including those who began their

postsecondary careers in community colleges) or only those who first entered a

bachelor’s degree-granting institution, roughly 1 out of 10 earned their degree

from an institution located in a state other than the state in which they started out

in postsecondary education. 

• For those who began in 4-year colleges and earned bachelor’s degrees, one out of

five earned the degree from an institution other than their first institution. 
13

As a guide to reading table 1.6, two examples might help: (1) of all bachelor’s degree recipients

who attended two institutions (37 percent of all bachelor’s degree recipients), nearly half (46

percent) earned their degree from an institution other than the one in which they started out, and

12 percent crossed state lines in the process; and (2) of all bachelor’s degree recipients who

started in 4-year colleges and attended three of more schools (19 percent), 28 percent earned the

degree in a state other than the state in which they began their postsecondary studies.

How much of a change does the history of the Class of 1992 against its predecessors in these

matters suggest? While the geography is difficult to extract from the earlier data sets, the data on

numbers of institutions and differences between first and last institution of attendance are easier

to elicit. So, for example, of bachelor’s degree recipients in the Class of 1972 who attended two

institutions (38.2 percent of all bachelor’s degree recipients in that cohort), 33.1 percent

(s.e.=1.51) earned their degree from an institution other than the one in which they started out

(data not in table). When compared with the 46.4 percent rate (s.e.=2.04) of the Class of 1992

two decades later, it appears that there has been a measurable increase in this type of mobility. 

When questions are asked about institutional graduation rates, these data might be kept in mind.
14

Table 1.6. Percent of the Class of 1992 who earned bachelor’s degrees by December

2000 in an institution other than their 1st institution of attendance and in a

state other than the state in which they first attended: by number of

postsecondary schools attended

 Percent of students for whom the Percent of students

bachelor’s degree was: for whom the 

 bachelor’s degree

Awarded Awarded was awarded

by 1st institution by a different in a different Percent

of attendance institution state than 1st state of total

All bachelor’s

TOTAL 66.8 (1.23) 33.2 (1.23) 9.9 (0.74) 100.0

Number of schools 

attended:

One 100.0 (1.00) ^ ^ 40.6 (1.31)

Two 53.6 (2.04) 46.4 (2.04) 11.5 (1.18) 36.6 (1.20)

More than two 28.8 (2.18) 71.2 (2.18) 25.2 (2.40) 22.8 (1.14)

Bachelor’s whose

1st institution was a

4-year college

TOTAL 80.2 (1.05) 19.8 (1.05) 9.0 (0.78) 100.0

Number of schools

attended:

One 100.0 (1.00) ^ ^ 48.7 (1.40)

Two 73.1 (1.90) 26.9 (1.90) 11.4 (1.30) 32.3 (1.19)

More than two 41.3 (2.81) 58.7 (2.81) 28.4 (2.89) 19.0 (1.07)

^ Not applicable. NOTES: (1) 12th graders in 1992 who earned bachelor’s degrees and for whom the true first institution of

attendance could be determined (Weighted N = 923); 1992 12th graders who earned bachelor’s degrees and whose

first institution of attendance was a 4-year college (Weighted N = 768k). (2) The “Percent of Total” columns for

each universe may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
15

Table 1.7 responds to a question asked by those interested in state investments in postsecondary

education in relation to state economic development: What proportion of those who earn their

bachelor’s degree in a state stay on in that state after graduation? In the Class of 1992, 62

percent of bachelor’s degree recipients remained in state, but there are a few significant

departures from this marker that are worth noting:

• Majors in Education are more likely than majors in other fields to stay in the state

in which they earned their bachelor’s degree, most likely because their major

program resulted in certification in that state.

• Students receiving their bachelor’s degrees from comprehensive colleges

(Carnegie Classes 21 and 22) are more likely to remain in the state in which they

earned their bachelor’s degree than students receiving their degrees from other

classes of 4-year institutions.

• The more selective the institution from which the bachelor’s degree was earned

the less likely the student was to stay in the state in which that institution was

located.

• Students who attended school in more than one state as undergraduates are more

likely to move to another state after receiving the bachelor’s degree.

For those who ask what proportion of students leave their home states for college but return after

their postsecondary experience (whether or not they earned degrees), table 1.5 shows that 10

percent of the Class of 1992 did just that (the state of residence was the same for high school and

the NELS:88/2000 interview in 2000, but not the same for the first institution attended).
16

Table 1.7. Percent of students in the Class of 1992 who earned a bachelor’s degree by

 December 1999 and who resided in the same state in which they received their 

 bachelor’s degree in the Spring of 2000, by undergraduate major, type of 

 institution awarding degree, selectivity of institution awarding degree, and 

 number of states in which student attended school as an undergraduate

 Residence in Spring 2000

Same state Different state

as the state from the state

in which in which

bachelor’s awarded bachelor’s awarded s.e.

All bachelor’s degrees by December 1999 61.9 38.1 (1.28)

Bachelor’s degree major

 Business 63.5 36.5 (2.84)

 Education 78.2 21.8 (2.89)

 Engineering/EnginTech/Architecture 46.2 53.8 (4.84)

 Physical sciences 50.7 49.3 (10.6)

 Mathematics/Computer science 55.4 44.6 (7.96)

 Life science 68.0 32.0 (3.10)

 Health sciences and services 64.4 35.6 (3.58)

 Humanities 53.7 46.3 (5.45)

 Fine and performing arts 62.4 37.6 (4.98)

 Social sciences 60.2 39.8 (2.75)

 Applied social sciences 66.0 34.0 (3.46)

 Other 49.4 50.6 (8.73)

Type of institution awarding degree

 Doctoral 57.8 42.2 (1.82)

 Comprehensive 72.9 27.1 (1.79)

 Baccalaureate 54.5 45.5 (3.10)

 Specialized 45.3 54.7 (11.0)

Selectivity of institution awarding degree

 Highly selective 36.8 63.2 (5.36)

 Selective 52.3 47.7 (2.63)

 Nonselective 68.6 31.4 (1.36)

 Not rated 55.3 44.7 (9.67)

Number of states attended as undergrad

 One 69.1 30.9 (1.38)

 Two or more 37.8 62.2 (2.62)

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of all 1992 (12th grade) NELS panel members who earned bachelor’s degrees by

December 1999 and for whom state of residence in 2000 could be determined. Weighted N = 881k. (2) Standard

errors are in parentheses.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
17

Part 2: 

Participation, Degrees, Credits, and Time:

The Postsecondary Attainments of Three Cohorts

In this section, the reader will find transcript-based national time-series data on educational

attainment after high school for traditional-age students, reflecting the current status of NCES

databases, and covering three longitudinal studies cohorts from 1972 to 2000. We start with

degree completion and time-to-degree because these have become increasingly important

accountability policy issues nationally and in state legislatures, then turn to access and different

degrees of participation.

In recent years, the two most often asked questions about U.S. higher education have become:

• What percentage of people who go to college earn a bachelor’s degree? and

• How long does it take them to earn it?

The virtue of national transcript-based longitudinal studies is that they can answer these

questions with powerful empirical evidence. Students change schools (McCormick 1997;

Adelman 1999b; Horn and Kojaku 2001) and students often cross state lines when they change

schools (as documented in table 1.5). Students move in and out of higher education over a long

period of time (Horn 1998). What we now call “noncontinuous enrollment” appears to be

commonplace (Hearn 1992). By following the student in space and time, the national transcript

studies enable us to provide systemwide completion rates in response to the two questions—that

is, the transcript studies allow us to describe what happened to students anywhere, and not just at

the first postsecondary institution they attended.

The three cohort samples are different in some important respects, which may account for some

of the changes indicated in the tables in this section. The most basic difference is that the

sampling of the high school class of 1972 took place in the spring semester of its senior year,

whereas those for the high school classes of 1982 and 1992 took place at earlier points (10th

grade and 8th grade, respectively). Even though the analyses in Principal Indicators are limited

to 12th graders in the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992, some of those students did not finish

high school (though they may have earned equivalency diplomas) yet years later took courses at

trade schools or community colleges. While this document does not analyze these relationships,

one can hypothesize that the majority of those who do not complete high school do not possess 

the same academic resources or attitudes toward persistence as those who do.

Taken as whole groups, one would expect students of the high school Classes of 1972 and 1982

who entered postsecondary education to be more successful in terms of degree completion and

academic performance than their counterparts from the Class of 1992 because the concluding

date of the longitudinal study gave them more time to complete. However, as tables 2.1 and 2.2

demonstrate, these expectations are not necessarily accurate.
18

For purposes of this document, the universes of comparison are confined to those who earned

more than 10 semester credits in postsecondary education over the period of their respective

histories. This strategy enables one to exclude incidental students (those who earned 10 or fewer

credits) from the analysis, and has been followed elsewhere in the literature (e.g., McCormick

1999) and in state systems analyses (e.g., Steppanen 2000). In all three transcript samples, there

are hundreds of students (representing tens of thousands) whose records consist either of nothing

but withdrawals, incompletes, and failures or who take two or three courses and then disappear

from education—at least through the censoring dates of the study (see table 3.2 for a portrait of

incidental students in the Class of 1992).

Given the threshold criterion of earning more than 10 credits, here is what we see in response to

the two basic questions most often asked about higher education:

 Class of 1972 Class of 1982 Class of 1992

 (12 years) (11 years) (8.5 years)

Of those who earned

more than 10 credits, 48.0% 45.3% 48.7%

the proportion with

bachelor’s degrees

(table 2.1)

Of those who earned

more than 10 credits

and any credits from 66.1 65.6 66.5

a 4-year college at

any time, the proportion with bachelor’s

degrees (table 2.2)

Of those who earned

bachelor’s degrees

within 8.5 years of 

the modal high school 4.34 4.45 4.56

graduation date for SD=1.02 SD=1.00 SD=1.09

the cohort, the mean s.e.= 0.019 s.e=0.026 s.e=0.028

time-to-degree in

elapsed calendar

years (table 2.3)

NOTE: SD = standard deviation; s.e. = standard error.

The 8.5-year bachelor’s degree attainment rate for the Class of 1992 is not significantly different

from that for the 12-year rate for the Class of 1972, no matter which universe is used, leading to

the hypothesis that the system is doing better in degree completion than was the case a quarter

century ago. These data also offer a general conclusion about national graduation rates: roughly

2 out of 3 traditional-age students who earned more than10 credits and attended a bachelor’s

degree-granting institution also earned a bachelor’s degree by their mid-to-late twenties.

Capping the history of all three cohorts at the Class of 1992 time span of 8.5 years from the

modal high school graduation date, time-to-degree for traditional-age students has risen slightly
9

Not in table 2.1. Percent of Class of 1972 doing post-baccalaureate study: 12.5 (s.e. = 0.58); Class of

1982: 13.4 (s.e. = 0.57); Class of 1992: 15.1 (s.e. = 0.64). 

19

over the period covered by the cohort histories. In terms of more common metrics for

understanding time-to-degree, a calendar year is the equivalent of a 9-month academic year

(September through May) plus 3 months or 0.25 of a year, hence 4.5 calendar years (the average

time-to-degree for the high school classes of 1982 and 1992) is the equivalent of 4.75 academic

years. 

Among the highlights of tables 2.1 through 2.3 that invite further investigation in light of the

data to be presented in Parts 3 and 4 of this document are the following:

• The rate and direction of change in attainment of at least a bachelor’s degree for AfricanAmericans. The rate declined notably between the Class of 1972 and the Class of 1982,

then rebounded considerably in the Class of 1992 (tables 2.1 and 2.2).

• Among students who earned any credits from 4-year colleges, the relative decline in the

rate of men’s attainment of at least a bachelor’s degree versus that for women between

the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992 (table 2.2).

• The increase in the proportion of students engaging in post-baccalaureate work in the

Class of 1992 cohort, particularly as they had less time to enter graduate school than did

students in the other two cohorts.9

 Other data sources, particularly the National

Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) surveys, strongly suggest that the increase in

post-baccalaureate enrollments is weighted toward a population over the age of 30 (Korb,

Schantz, and Zimbler 1989; Choy and Moskovitz 1998).

• The rise in mean credits earned by bachelor’s degree recipients as parallel to the increase

in time-to-degree (see California Postsecondary Education Planning Commission 1988). 

The match is not exact. For example, between the Class of 1972 and the Class of 1992

cohorts there was a 6.4 percent increase in mean credits earned and a 5 percent increase

in time-to-degree (with an effect size of 1.12, indicating a modestly positive

relationship). However, this is an imperfect measure, and analysts are encouraged to

engage in multivariate analyses of the factors associated with time-to-degree (table 2.3).

The last observation draws attention to the reason that table 2.3 includes Standard Deviations

rather than standard errors (see appendix D for the standard errors for table 2.3). The Standard

Deviation allows one to estimate whether students are behaving more alike (the Standard

Deviation will contract over time) or less alike (the Standard Deviation will expand over time),

though the judgment requires a test of effect size. So, for example, as the average number of

credits earned by engineering graduates increased from 137.1 for the Class of 1972 to 150.6 for

the Class of 1992, the Standard Deviation declined from 23.2 to18.4. The t-test using the

standard errors tells us that this change in the average number of credits earned is significant. At

the same time, the test for the change in Standard Deviation tells us that engineering graduates in

the Class of 1992 are more alike in terms of the number of credits they earned than those

students who graduated 20 years earlier (the effect size is 1.21, a positive relationship). This

observation can lead to hypotheses about the effect of changes in accreditation requirements for

engineering programs promulgated by the Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology

(ABET) in 1991 (ABET 1992).
20

Table 2.1. Highest degree attained by 12th graders in the high school classes of 1972

(through 1984), 1982 (through 1993), and 1992 (through 2000) who earned

more than 10 postsecondary credits, by gender and race/ethnicity

Percent of students whose highest degree was . . .

 Bachelor’s

 plus First At Percent of 

 Bach- some Prof/ least total

 None Certif Associate elor’s Grad Master’s Doct bachelor’s in cohort

All

Class of 1972 37.4 4.5 10.1 35.5 4.0 6.2 2.3 48.0 †

Class of 1982 35.9 8.6 10.3 31.9 6.7 4.7 2.0 45.3 †

Class of 1992 35.7 6.2 9.3 33.6 8.9 4.7 1.5 48.7 †

Men

Class of 1972 37.9 3.1 8.9 36.5 3.9 6.1 3.5 50.0 51.2

Class of 1982 37.3 7.3 8.7 33.0 6.3 4.6 2.9 46.8 46.3

Class of 1992 41.0 5.1 8.8 32.1 8.0 3.7 1.4 45.2 46.3

Women

Class of 1972 36.8 6.0 11.4 34.6 4.0 6.3 0.9 45.8 48.8

Class of 1982 34.6 9.6 11.7 31.0 7.0 4.8 1.2 44.0 53.7

Class of 1992 31.1 7.2 9.9 35.0 9.7 5.7 1.5 51.8 53.7

White

Class of 1972 34.9 4.5 10.3 37.4 4.1 6.5 2.3 50.3 87.2

Class of 1982 32.1 8.6 10.5 34.3 7.3 5.2 1.9 48.7 81.8

Class of 1992 32.0 6.0 9.5 36.0 9.5 5.5 1.4 52.4 75.7

African-American

Class of 1972 53.8 4.8 7.7 25.8 1.4 4.8 1.8 33.8 8.1

Class of 1982 58.8 8.9 7.7 18.3 3.0 2.4 0.9 24.6 10.0

Class of 1992 48.1 7.1 7.9 29.2 5.2 2.1 0.4 36.9 9.6

Latino

Class of 1972 60.3 3.6 11.2 16.5 5.6 1.5 1.3 24.9 3.5

Class of 1982 50.9 8.2 13.4 20.1 4.3 1.8 1.4 27.6 4.9

Class of 1992 55.3 7.6 9.8 17.3 7.2 2.3 0.5 27.3 9.0

Asian 

Class of 1972 30.3 1.3 6.2 42.1 5.6 8.1 6.5 62.3 1.2

Class of 1982 30.4 3.9 8.0 33.2 7.4 6.6 10.5 57.7 1.9

Class of 1992 29.0 5.0 8.8 37.5 10.6 3.4 5.6 57.1 5.0

† Not applicable.

NOTES: (1) Rows may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (2) For standard errors of the estimates, see

Appendix D. (3) Weighted Ns: Class of 1972 = 1.54M; Class of 1982 = 2.08M; Class of 1992 = 1.90M.

SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of

1972, High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194, and NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript

Files, NCES 2003-402.
21

Table 2.2. Highest degree attained by 12th graders in the high school classes of 1972

(through 1984), 1982 (through 1993), and 1992 (through 2000) who earned

more than 10 postsecondary credits and any credits from a 4-year college, by

gender and race/ethnicity

Percent of students whose highest degree was . . .

 Bachelor’s

 plus First At Percent of 

 Bach- some Prof/ least total

None Certif Associate elor’s Grad Master’s Doct Bachelor’s in cohort

All

Class of 1972 27.8 1.2 4.8 48.9 5.5 8.6 3.1 66.1 †

Class of 1982 26.7 2.0 5.6 46.3 9.7 6.8 2.8 65.6 † 

Class of 1992 25.5 1.9 6.1 45.9 12.2 6.5 1.9 66.5 †

Men

Class of 1972 28.4 0.8 4.3 48.4 5.2 8.2 4.8 66.6 52.8

Class of 1982 26.4 1.7 5.4 47.0 8.9 6.5 4.1 66.5 47.4

Class of 1992 31.2 1.4 5.9 43.7 10.9 5.0 1.9 61.5 46.8

Women

Class of 1972 27.4 1.8 5.6 49.1 5.8 9.1 1.3 65.3 47.2

Class of 1982 27.0 2.3 5.8 45.7 10.4 7.1 1.7 64.9 52.6

Class of 1992 20.4 2.4 6.2 47.9 13.3 7.8 2.0 71.0 53.2

White

Class of 1972 25.7 1.3 4.9 50.5 5.7 8.8 3.2 68.2 87.1

Class of 1982 23.4 2.1 5.5 48.5 10.5 7.3 2.7 69.0 83.6

Class of 1992 23.4 1.9 5.5 47.6 12.6 7.3 1.8 69.3 78.4

African-American

Class of 1972 45.8 1.3 4.6 36.8 2.1 6.9 2.6 48.4 7.9

Class of 1982 56.0 0.6 3.3 29.8 4.8 4.0 1.5 40.1 9.1

Class of 1992 35.6 3.7 5.5 43.8 7.7 3.1 0.6 55.3 8.7

Latino

Class of 1972 47.8 * 7.3 29.1 9.8 2.7 2.3 43.9 2.3

Class of 1982 35.4 3.2 11.4 36.6 7.7 3.2 2.5 50.0 4.1

Class of 1992 39.2 1.8 10.1 30.9 12.9 4.1 1.0 48.9 6.8

Asian

Class of 1972 15.6 * 4.0 54.5 7.3 10.5 7.8 80.1 1.3

Class of 1982 17.2 0.8 6.2 43.7 9.7 8.6 13.7 76.7 2.2

Class of 1992 21.8 0.2 9.3 45.2 12.8 4.1 6.7 68.8 5.5

* Rounds to zero. ^ Not applicable.

NOTES: (1) Rows may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding; (2) for standard errors of these estimates, see Appendix D. (3) Weighted Ns: Class of 1972 = 1.11M; Class of 1982 = 1.22M; Class of 1992 = 1.39M.

SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194, and NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
22

Table 2.3. Time to bachelor's degree and average undergraduate credits earned by those in the high sc

1982, and 1992 who were awarded bachelor’s degrees within 8.5 years of the modal high schfor their class

Average time-to-degree Average total undergraduate credits

Class of Class of Class of Class of Class of Class of1972 SD 1982 SD 1992 SD 1972 SD 1982 SD 1992 SD

All 4.34 1.02 4.45 1.00 4.56 1.09 130.1 20.2 134.3 15.7 138.4 18.Men 4.45 1.05 4.56 1.01 4.68 1.11 131.3 20.9 135.0 16.0 138.3 16.Women 4.22 0.97 4.36 0.98 4.47 1.06 128.8 19.4 133.7 15.4 138.4 18.White 4.32 1.01 4.44 1.00 4.51 1.06 129.9 20.1 134.2 15.8 137.8 18.African- 4.39 1.10 4.57 0.95 4.67 1.14 132.7 21.1 134.1 13.9 140.9 16. AmericanLatino 5.07 1.28 4.66 1.02 5.11 1.24 133.9 26.3 136.2 18.1 140.3 18.Asian 4.50 0.98 4.61 1.01 4.61 1.08 130.6 20.3 135.8 14.3 141.5 19.Selected MajorBusiness 4.41 1.05 4.46 1.01 4.53 1.08 128.4 17.3 131.6 13.3 134.6 15.Education 4.19 0.92 4.56 0.97 4.69 1.17 131.1 18.7 136.7 15.9 144.2 16.Engineering 4.51 1.12 4.74 1.02 4.68 1.01 137.1 23.3 147.1 19.4 150.6 18.Humanities 4.36 1.01 4.23 0.94 4.32 1.13 128.5 20.9 129.7 14.2 133.0 16.Arts 4.38 0.98 4.45 0.95 4.57 1.14 132.0 22.8 138.1 15.9 141.2 17.Social science 4.27 1.03 4.35 1.05 4.48 1.06 125.7 16.1 129.4 14.1 133.8 15.Life sciences 4.28 0.98 4.33 0.76 4.39 0.98 130.9 21.9 136.4 15.8 138.1 17.Health sci 4.48 1.10 4.56 0.92 4.63 1.13 134.7 27.2 141.0 18.2 144.6 24. and servicesPhysical 4.43 1.17 4.35 1.00 4.44 0.92 133.7 25.6 135.7 13.2 140.9 15. sciencesNOTES: (1) Universe consists of all 12th graders who earned bachelor's degrees within 8.5 years of high school graduation, and for w

be computed. Weighted Ns: Class of 1972 = 672k, Class of 1982 = 758k, Class of 1992 = 923k. (2) Time-to-degree in elapsed calendadeviation, means that 68 percent of the cases will fall + the amount indicated from the mean. (3) Standard errors can be found in Appen

SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, High School & B

Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402. 
23

Trends in Basic Access

The third most frequently asked question about postsecondary education in the United States

concerns “access,” which, in its broadest interpretation, means the rate at which a given segment

of the population enrolls in any accredited institution offering instruction to adults (other than

those devoted solely to Adult Basic Education) and/or to high school graduates. The segment of

the population to which access analyses have traditionally been applied consists of recent (within

the previous year), traditional-age (within the Census Bureau’s 16-24 year-old bracket) high

school graduates, including GED recipients. These data have been provided annually by the

American College Testing Service (ACT) since 1960. 

Table 2.4 looks across the three NCES longitudinal studies cohorts in terms of access rates, and

compares those rates with the average of the rate reported by ACT during the life of each cohort. 

The ACT calculation is a snapshot of a single year, and includes people in the denominator

(using the Census Bureau’s 16-24 bracket) who did not complete all of their precollegiate

education in the United States. The longitudinal studies, on the other hand, allow for members

of a grade cohort to enroll in postsecondary education over a longer period of time—from 8.5

years for the Class of 1992 to 12 years for the Class of 1972, and confine the universe to U.S.

high school students. Thus, the NCES cohort access rates will inevitably be higher than what

ACT reports. 

In table 2.4, one can see an increasing access rate for the general traditional-age population, and

with a particularly notable leap between the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992. This increase

was consistent for women across all three cohorts, but for men it was significant only between

the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992. By race/ethnicity, the increases for Whites were

significant across all three cohorts. For African-Americans and Latinos, the increases were

significant—and substantial—only between the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992.

In fact, considering access rates within the Class of 1992, there is no difference between Whites

and African-Americans. There is also no difference between the access rates of Latinos and

American Indians. Differences between all other combinations of race/ethnicity groups are

significant. 

In contrast to the portrait of access of 12th graders by race/ethnicity, table 2.4 reveals a

consistent spread of 40 or more percentage points in access rates between students from the

highest and lowest socioeconomic status (SES) quintiles in all three cohorts. Within SES

quintiles, all increases in access across the cohorts are significant except that from the Class of

1972 to the Class of 1982 for the highest quintile.
24

Table 2.4. Percent of high school 12th graders in 1972, 1982, and 1992 who entered at

least one postsecondary institution by the end of the cohort study period

Class of 1972 Class of 1982 Class of 1992

Cohort study period: 1972-1984 1982-1993 1992-2000

All 57.9 (0.53) 63.3 (0.68) 77.3 (0.87)

Men 59.9 (0.71) 59.4 (0.93) 74.6 (1.26)

Women 55.8 (0.64) 67.2 (0.86) 79.9 (1.20)

Race/ethnicity

White 59.8 (0.60) 66.2 (0.80) 79.4 (0.83)

African-American 50.6 (1.25) 53.3 (1.69) 69.5 (3.59)

Latino 50.9 (2.18) 49.7 (1.98) 70.0 (3.24)

Asian 76.1 (3.08) 79.9 (3.17) 91.4 (1.42)

American Indian 36.2 (3.61) 51.2 (5.54) 47.2 (10.2)

Socioeconomic status

quintile

81th-100th percentile (high) 85.2 (0.63) 87.7 (1.03) 93.8 (0.94)

61st-80th percentile 64.8 (0.89) 72.6 (1.23) 86.7 (1.40)

41st-60th percentile 54.2 (0.94) 64.4 (1.37) 77.0 (2.08)

21st-40th percentile 43.0 (0.93) 54.0 (1.42) 65.3 (2.05)

1st-20th percentile (low) 37.7 (0.91) 43.0 (1.69) 53.6 (2.41)

Average ACT access

 rate1 during the life

 of the cohort, starting 54.7 57.7 63.5

 at the modal high school

 graduation year

1 The American College Testing Program (ACT) computes college enrollment rates (access) of high school

graduates in the population age 16-24 who graduated or completed a GED during the previous 12 months. The data

here are drawn from Snyder, T., Digest of Education Statistics, 2001 (Washington, DC: National Center for

Education Statistics, 2002), table 184, p. 219.

NOTES: (1) Universes consist of all 12th graders in 1972, 1982, and 1992. Weighted Ns: Class of 1972 = 3.04M;

Class of 1982 = 3.29M; Class of 1992 = 2.63M (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCES: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972; High School & Beyond/Sophomore

Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
25

What the Class of 1992 Tells Us About Participation

Beneath the surface data on access and degree attainment lies a mass of information from the

transcript studies that can help us understand better not only who participates in postsecondary

education but how and what it might mean when people respond to surveys and indicate that

they “went to college.” This is an important issue, for example, in interpreting the Census data

used by ACT in reporting college access rates (see table 2.4). Table 2.5 presents a “Macro

History” of all 12th graders in the Class of 1992 cohort who reported attending a postsecondary

institution by the time of their final interview in the Spring of 2000, and sets out a scheme that

divides the quality of evidence in support of the students’ claim in two bins: “weak” evidence of

true participation and “adequate evidence” of true participation. For nearly 1 out of 12 students

who claimed to have entered postsecondary education, the evidence in support of the claim was

not adequate.

Transcripts were requested for all students who claimed to have attended postsecondary

institutions, and were received for roughly 90 percent of them. But some of the received

transcripts said simply that the student enrolled in a school yet never registered for courses; other

transcripts indicated that the students attended one school and took one course or were enrolled

only in continuing education courses such as parenting or Emergency Medical Training. Still

others assembled records that consisted of nothing but GED-level and remedial work that did not

carry credit toward a credential. Finally, there is a group that earned no credits of any kind in

their postsecondary histories. One can argue that these students had “access,” but did they truly

participate in postsecondary education? If participation means earning at least some credits (or

credit-equivalents) that count toward credentials, none of the cases cited yields evidence of

participation.

What about students for whom transcripts were requested but not received (usually because the

institution said they had no record of the student or could not find the document)? In some

cases, the student’s claim to attendance was supported by other unobtrusive information (e.g.,

entries of loan disbursements in the National Student Loan Data System files) or sets of test

scores (e.g., Advanced Placement or College Board Achievement Tests) that matched the typical

range of scores reported for the school they claimed to have attended. In other cases, the

student’s claim was supported by the consistency of responses to questions asked in surveys 6

years apart (1994 and 2000), and for features of postsecondary history—such as parents’

borrowing for education, change of major, simultaneous attendance at two institutions, and

program of study that matched their occupation in 1999—that offered a credible storyline. 

But for other students for whom transcripts were requested but not received, there was no such

evidence, unobtrusive or credible story-line. Readers of table 2.5 who focus on the summary

lines (“Weak Evidence,” “Adequate Evidence”) and perform standard t-tests will notice

statistically significant differences by both gender and race/ethnicity that warrant further

exploration. What table 2.5 raises is a potentially important issue for the way national

participation in postsecondary education might be assessed. 
26

Table 2.5. Nature and extent of participation in postsecondary education for 1992 12th

graders who reported attending a postsecondary institution at any time

through December 2000, by gender and race/ethnicity 

 Percentage distribution of students by participation categories

 AfricanAll Men Women White American Latino Asian

Weak evidence of

participation

All 7.8 9.3 6.3 5.8 12.6 14.1 5.8

(0.58) (1.01) (0.61) (0.42) (2.90) (3.10) (2.06)

 Transcripts received

 1 school, no 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.1

 coursework (0.13) (0.26) (0.06) (0.12) (0.41) (0.83) (0.12)

 1 school, 1 course 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.1 2.3 1.8 0.1 (0.26) (0.48) (0.24) (0.18) (1.65) (0.78) (0.08)

 1 school, all 1.6 2.0 1.2 0.8 4.6 2.7 0.9

 remedial work (0.30) (0.55) (0.25) (0.15) (2.02) (0.73) (0.38)

 1 school, continuing 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 #

 ed courses only (0.11) (0.06) (0.20) (0.15) (0.08) (0.08)

 Zero credits from all 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.5 3.0 3.8

 schools attended (0.20) (0.35) (0.23) (0.17) (0.37) (0.87) (2.04)

 No transcripts received

 Self-reported history 2.3 2.8 1.8 1.7 3.5 5.5 0.9

 does not support claim (0.39) (0.69) (0.39) (0.27) (1.39) (2.93) (0.35)

Adequate evidence of

participation

All 92.2 90.7 93.7 94.2 87.4 85.9 94.2

 (0.58) (1.01) (0.61) (0.42) (2.90) (3.10) (2.06)

 Transcripts received

 1 school, vocational 2.9 3.5 2.7 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.6

 coursework only (0.26) (0.34) (0.32) (0.31) (0.59) (0.69) (1.19)

 1 or more schools 84.8 83.3 82.7 87.9 73.7 76.1 90.0

 academic and other (0.79) (1.13) (0.89) (0.60) (4.14) (3.29) (2.28) coursework

 No transcripts received

 Self-reported history 4.5 3.9 6.3 3.2 11.4 7.5 1.6

 and/or unobtrusive (0.56) (0.55) (0.67) (0.36) (3.84) (1.90) (0.51) evidence supports claim

# Rounds to zero. NOTES: (1) Universe=1992 12th graders who claimed postsecondary attendance. Weighted N = 2.19M. (2) For

explanation of evidence used when no transcripts were received, see text. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. (4)

Columns may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript

Files, NCES 2003-402.
10The reason for setting this boundary is that, as previously noted, the NELS:88/2000 cohort was

“refreshed” in both 1990 and 1992, and some slightly younger students entered the cohort on those occasions. 

These younger students accounted for 56 percent of the diplomas awarded between July 1992 and June 1993. In

addition, some 16 percent of the diploma dates during this period fell during the Summer of 1992, indicating either

delayed awards or delayed recording.

27

Participation and Completion: Results of Changing the Denominator

Any statement about the proportion of a group of students who enrolls in postsecondary

education of any kind (access), earns credits (or credit-equivalents) toward a credential

(participation), or successfully finishes a given course of study and earns the award associated

with that course of study (completion) is conditioned by the boundaries of the universe of

students described—the denominator of the equation. Each narrowing of the universe and

corresponding shrinkage in the denominator produces an increasingly fortuitous result. The

differences in degree completion rates observed in tables 2.1 and 2.2 illustrate this principle. In

both tables, the weighted number of 1992 12th graders who earned bachelors degrees (the

numerator) is 924k. In table 2.1, the denominator consists of all those who earned more than 10

postsecondary credits: 1.898M. In table 2.2, the denominator consists of all those who not only

earned more than 10 postsecondary credits but also any credits from a bachelor’s degreegranting institution: 1.389M. The bachelor’s degree completion rate thus rises from 48.7

percent (table 2.1) to 66.5 percent (table 2.2). But the universes in these tables were already

confined to known postsecondary participants.

Tables 2.6 through 2.9 use the Class of 1992 cohort to demonstrate a different approach, namely,

including those students who never claimed postsecondary attendance (that is, all participants in

the 1992 panel and not just those flagged as 12th graders), hence including “access” in the

equation. These tables also enable the researcher to begin investigation of secondary school

background variables associated with postsecondary entry and completion.

Tables 2.6 and 2.7 should be compared to see what happens when moving from the broadest

universe of the Class of 1992 cohort, that is, the maximum denominator, to a universe confined

by the population of those who earned a standard high school diploma within a year of the modal

high school graduation season of the Spring of 1992 (that is, by the end of June 199310). With

the more constricted universe:

• The proportion of those who never entered postsecondary education drops from

27.6 percent to 17.2 percent, and with an even steeper decline for Latinos (from

36.8 percent to 19.4 percent).

• The most notable increase in completion is at the level of bachelor’s and higher.

While not directly in the tables, these figures are 28.6 percent for all 1992 survey

participants (s.e.= 0.88) and 35.2 percent for all 1992 survey participants who

earned a standard high school diploma by July of 1993 (s.e.= 0.96).

Table 2.8 serves to unmask divergences in both postsecondary participation and degree

completion by socioeconomic status quintile that are greater (between the highest and lowest

quintiles) than the greatest differences by race/ethnicity (with the exception of participation rates

for Asian-Americans versus American Indians) observable in table 2.7. Table 2.8 suggests that

in multivariate analyses of postsecondary attainment, socioeconomic status is likely to play a

significant role as an independent variable.
11The academic intensity and quality of students’ high school curriculum was developed from the

NELS:88/2000 high school transcript records using the same cascading approach originally developed for the High

School & Beyond/So cohort, and found in Answers in the Tool Box: Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and

Bachelor’s Degree Completion (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, 1999). The cascade yielded 32

levels of intensity/quality, and the distribution of students across those levels was then set in quintiles. The

variables on each level include: highest level of mathematics completed in high school, total Carnegie units in

mathematics, core laboratory science (biology, chemistry, physics), foreign languages, English, social sciences

(including history), computer science, number of Advanced Placement courses, and number of remedial courses in

English and mathematics. At the highest of the 32 levels, the student has more than 1 Advanced Placement course,

math at trigonometry, precalculus or calculus, more than 3.75 Carnegie units each of English and mathematics,

more than 2 Carnegie units of core laboratory science, foreign language, and social sciences, any units of computer

science, and no remedial courses (reading, English, or mathematics).

12Class rank (for the NELS:88/2000 students who attended high schools with more than10 students in a

graduating class) was set in percentiles, and matched against the distribution of high school GPA set in percentiles. 

Missing percentile cases of class rank were then filled with the corresponding GPA percentile; using the

equipercentile concordance method (Houston and Sawyer 1991), the final scale was then presented in quintiles.

28

Table 2.9 introduces high school background variables that, at first glance, may also play

significant roles in multivariate analyses of postsecondary attendance and attainment (Cabrera

and La Nasa 2001; Adelman 1999b; Alexander, Holupka, and Pallas 1987). Students in the top

two quintiles of academic high school curriculum intensity11 have much higher rates of

postsecondary participation and degree completion than students in the other quintiles, a

phenomenon that is mirrored in the distribution of students by quintile of high school class

rank/GPA.12 Yet the internal variations in the two distributions suggest that their relative power

in multivariate analyses may prove to be slightly different. For example, students in the lowest

two quintiles of academic curriculum intensity were less likely to enter postsecondary education

at all than were those students in the lowest two quintiles of the class rank/GPA measure. Only a

multivariate analysis can sort out the effects of such cross currents and help researchers

determine the comparative strength of precollegiate factors in explaining educational attainment.
29

Table 2.6. Participation in postsecondary education and highest degree earned through 

December 2000 by 1992 NELS:88/2000 survey participants, by gender and

race/ethnicity

 African- American

 All Men Women White American Latino Asian Indian

No post- 27.6 30.1 25.0 25.4 31.2 36.8 11.6 59.5

 secondary (0.94) (1.33) (1.22) (1.01) (2.87) (2.90) (2.50) (8.91)

Highest

 degree

No degree 34.5 36.3 32.8 31.4 45.3 43.0 33.5 32.9

 (0.87) (1.30) (1.11) (0.87) (3.21) (2.87) (3.40) (8.15)

Certificate 3.7 2.9 4.6 3.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 0.4

(0.29) (0.34) (0.47) (0.36) (0.71) (0.73) (1.35) (0.32)

Associate’s 5.5 5.1 5.9 6.1 3.6 4.4 6.7 2.1

(0.33) (0.48) (0.46) (0.41) (0.84) (0.85) (2.50) (0.72)

Bachelor’s 19.9 18.3 21.4 23.0 13.1 7.9 29.1 3.6

(0.68) (0.89) (0.89) (0.78) (1.80) (0.88) (2.94) (1.69)

Post-bacca- 2.2 1.9 2.4 2.6 0.5 1.2 3.4 0.9

 laurate (0.18) (0.27) (0.22) (0.23) (0.19) (0.51) (0.69) (0.59)

 coursework

Incomplete 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.4 1.9 2.0 4.9 0.2

 graduate (0.19) (0.27) (0.30) (0.25) (0.52) (0.56) (0.83) (0.17)

 degree

Master’s 2.8 2.1 3.5 3.4 1.0 1.1 2.7 0.5

(0.21) (0.22) (0.28) (0.28) (0.26) (0.27) (0.56) (0.54)

1st profess. 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.3 4.3 0.1

 or Ph.D (0.11) (0.13) (0.14) (0.11) (0.08) (0.10) (1.85) (0.06)

NOTES: The universe consists of all 1992 survey participants who were in the 2000 follow-up of the

NELS:88/2000 cohort, including those who never graduated from high school and those who earned GEDs and

alternative secondary school diplomas. Weighted N = 3.15M. (2) Columns may not sum to 100.0 percent because of

rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
30

Table 2.7. Participation in postsecondary education and highest degree earned through

December 2000 by 1992 NELS:88/2000 survey participants who earned

standard high school diplomas by July 1993, by gender and race/ethnicity

 African- American

All Men Women White American Latino Asian Indian

No post- 17.2 20.2 14.1 16.5 19.8 19.4 5.7 51.2

 secondary (0.77) (1.15) (0.97) (0.78) (2.74) (3.10) (1.28) (10.7)

Highest

 degree

No degree 37.2 39.6 34.8 32.9 51.0 52.9 35.0 38.2

(0.91) (1.35) (1.15) (0.85) (3.61) (2.99) (3.36) (9.84)

Certificate 3.9 3.0 4.9 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.1 0.6

(0.33) (0.34) (0.55) (0.38) (0.89) (0.98) (1.46) (0.48)

Associate’s 6.4 5.7 7.1 6.9 3.8 6.1 7.2 3.1

(0.38) (0.52) (0.57) (0.46) (0.85) (1.23) (2.77) (1.05)

Bachelor’s 24.5 22.5 26.4 27.4 17.2 11.2 31.5 5.5

(0.75) (1.03) (0.99) (0.84) (2.27) (1.28) (3.10) (2.57)

Post-bacca- 2.7 2.4 3.0 3.1 0.7 1.7 3.7 0.3

 laureate (0.21) (0.33) (0.27) (0.27) (0.25) (0.73) (0.74) (0.25)

 coursework

Incomplete 3.7 3.2 4.3 4.1 2.5 2.8 5.3 0.2

 graduate (0.25) (0.33) (0.37) (0.30) (0.67) (0.85) (0.88) (0.25)

 degree

Master’s 3.4 2.5 4.3 4.1 1.3 1.5 2.9 0.8

(0.25) (0.33) (0.36) (0.33) (0.35) (0.38) (0.60) (0.81)

1st profess 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.4 4.6 0.1

 or Ph.D (0.14) (0.14) (0.22) (0.13) (0.11) (0.15) (1.99) (0.09)

NOTES: (1) The universe consists of all 1992 survey participants who were in the 2000 follow-up of the

NELS:88/2000 cohort who earned a standard high school diploma within 1 year (and 1 month, to account for

delayed awards) following the modal date of cohort high school graduation. Weighted N = 2.51M. (2) Columns

may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
31

Table 2.8. Participation in postsecondary education and highest degree earned through

December 2000 by 1992 NELS:88/2000 survey participants who earned

standard high school diplomas by July 1993, by socioeconomic status

percentile

Socioeconomic status percentile

(High) (Low)

81st-100th 61st-80th 41st-60th 21st-40th 1st-20th

No postsecondary 3.4 (0.72) 9.1 (1.02) 17.3 (1.54) 28.8 (2.13) 36.5 (2.39)

Highest degree

No degree 23.4 (1.42) 42.2 (1.85) 42.5 (2.04) 40.0 (1.88) 41.2 (2.31)

Certificate 1.4 (0.38) 3.5 (0.73) 4.6 (0.66) 4.7 (0.90) 7.3 (1.15)

Associate’s 3.7 (0.54) 6.2 (0.84) 9.3 (1.01) 7.8 (0.92) 6.2 (1.06)

Bachelor’s 43.9 (1.51) 28.9 (1.53) 19.2 (1.38) 13.7 (1.04) 6.5 (0.76)

Post-baccalaureate 5.0 (0.57) 2.7 (0.51) 2.3 (0.38) 1.4 (0.38) 0.6 (0.17)

 coursework

Incomplete 8.1 (0.58) 3.3 (0.44) 2.5 (0.36) 2.0 (0.72) 1.4 (0.56)

 graduate degree

Master’s 8.1 (0.77) 3.3 (0.49) 2.0 (0.34) 1.4 (0.26) 0.3 (0.12)

1st professional 3.0 (0.48) 0.8 (0.19) 0.3 (0.10) 0.3 (0.10) # 

 or Ph.D

# Rounds to zero.

NOTES: (1) The universe consists of all 1992 survey participants who were in the 2000 follow-up of the

NELS:88/2000 cohort who earned a standard high school diploma within 1 year (and 1 month, to account for

delayed awards) following the modal date of cohort high school graduation. Weighted N = 2.547M. (2) Columns

may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
32

Table 2.9. Participation in postsecondary education and highest degree earned through 

 December 2000 by 1992 NELS:88/2000 survey participants who earned 

 standard high school diplomas by July 1993, by high school academic 

 curriculum intensity and academic performance

Percentage distribution by academic curriculum intensity quintile1

Highest 2nd 3rd 4th Lowest

No postsecondary 2.9 (1.02) 3.5 (0.88) 11.4 (1.45) 25.4 (1.91) 43.6 (2.48)

Highest degree

No degree 16.6 (1.54) 31.8 (2.83) 42.9 (1.82) 46.9 (2.16) 39.9 (2.07)

Certificate 0.7 (0.22) 2.4 (0.90) 5.5 (0.93) 5.9 (0.94) 6.0 (0.84)

Associate’s 2.8 (0.42) 6.1 (0.82) 9.5 (1.05) 8.9 (0.94) 5.2 (0.73)

Bachelor’s 49.7 (1.97) 39.1 (2.11) 23.2 (1.41) 10.2 (1.21) 3.8 (0.57)

Post-baccalaureate 4.5 (0.52) 4.8 (0.79) 2.3 (0.54) 0.8 (0.20) 0.6 (0.18)

 coursework

Incomplete 8.9 (0.91) 5.9 (0.65) 2.4 (0.50) 1.2 (0.46) 0.7 (0.28)

 graduate degree

Master’s 9.7 (1.19) 5.1 (0.61) 2.5 (0.42) 0.5 (0.20) 0.2 (0.11)

1st profess or Ph.D 4.2 (0.75) 1.3 (0.30) 0.2 (0.10) 0.1 (0.05) #

Percentage distribution by high school class rank/GPA quintile1

Highest 2nd 3rd 4th Lowest

No postsecondary 3.0 (0.65) 9.8 (1.53) 15.3 (1.75) 19.7 (1.65) 36.5 (2.53)

Highest degree

No degree 16.1 (1.28) 26.7 (1.73) 41.2 (2.25) 48.7 (2.12) 47.6 (2.38)

Certificate 1.2 (0.28) 3.7 (1.12) 5.2 (0.97) 5.4 (0.82) 5.0 (0.66)

Associate’s 4.3 (0.57) 9.4 (1.27) 8.1 (0.85) 8.4 (1.10) 4.0 (0.53)

Bachelor’s 45.3 (1.69) 37.3 (1.91) 22.3 (1.58) 14.9 (1.30) 5.9 (0.99)

Post-baccalaureate 5.6 (0.80) 3.8 (0.49) 2.3 (0.56) 1.0 (0.30) 0.3 (0.11)

 coursework

Incomplete 9.3 (0.82) 5.2 (0.83) 3.2 (0.62) 1.0 (0.24) 0.4 (0.14)

 graduate degree

Master’s 10.8 (1.05) 3.4 (0.46) 2.2 (0.40) 0.8 (0.27) 0.2 (0.10)

1st profess or Ph.D 4.5 (0.68) 0.7 (0.19) 0.3 (0.12) 0.1 (0.09) #

 

# Rounds to zero.

1

 See the Glossary for a description of the construction of these variables. NOTES: (1) The universe consists of all 1992 survey participants who were in the 2000 follow-up of the NELS:88/2000 cohort who earned a standard high school diploma within 1 year (and 1month, to account for delayed awards) following the modal date of cohort high school graduation. Weighted Ns for those with curriculum data = 2.07M, and class rank/GPA data = 1.95M. (2) Columns may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
13The “educational anticipations” variable was constructed from student responses to questions asked in

1990 and 1992 about the highest level of education they expected to attain and their planned timing of entry into

postsecondary education, and a question asked in1992 about the type of institution the student intended to enter

first. A student with a consistent anticipation of earning a bachelor’s degree or higher answered the basic pair of

questions in 1990 and 1992 by citing expectations of bachelor’s or higher and immediate entry to higher education

after high school. The 1992 question about type of first institution was used to adjust missing or contradictory

responses. An algorithm involving other combinations of responses to the two basic questions produced the

remaining values of the variable (see the Glossary for complete description).

33

Part 3:

The “Credit-Attainment” Account of Postsecondary Accomplishment

Up to this point, Principal Indicators has presented attainment in terms of credentials awarded,

including the category of “no degree.” A closer examination of the data, however, yields a

richer description of what is meant by “no degree,” and this description leads us to consider a

variety of post-matriculation behaviors, including attendance patterns, that may assist in the

targeting of populations for enhanced retention efforts.

Table 3.1 presents the attainment portrait for all postsecondary participants in the Class of 1992

cohort in an “if-then-else” logic that begins with students who earned at least a bachelor’s

degree, and then works down the credential chain through associate’s degrees and certificates to 

“no degree,” which it then divides by the number of credits earned by the student. Four credit

ranges are set forth: 0-10, 11-29, 30-59, and 60 or more. For convenience of labeling, this is

called a “credit-attainment account.” 

Two of the no degree credit-range groups are of particular interest and present distinctive

profiles: incidental students (0-10 credits) and long-term noncompleters (60 or more credits).

In terms of general demographic background characteristics (table 3.1), higher proportions of

African-American and Latino students than White students and those from the lowest two SES

quintiles versus the highest two SES quintiles are found in the incidental student category, but

neither of these features is the case in the long-term noncompleter category. As tables 3.2 and

3.3 suggest, though, demographic background may prove to be less important than other features

of secondary school history and postsecondary attendance in explaining why, at age 26 or 27, the

two groups are situated where they are in the credit-attainment chain.

The portrait of those who became incidental students in table 3.2 shows not only an academically

weaker group than their peers (for example, more than half never got beyond Algebra 1 in high

school mathematics) but also a group whose precollegiate expectations for educational

attainment13 were considerably lower than those whose momentum in postsecondary education

carried them beyond the “incidental” classification. 

Policy discussions and research tend to treat all noncompleters as equivalent, whether they

earned 1 credit or 71 credits. The more notable exceptions do not involve credit accounting, but

reflect the fact that the student is still enrolled at the end of a longitudinal study (e.g., Berkner,

He, and Cataldi 2002). The importance of tables 3.1 through 3.3 is that they demonstrate the

difference between still being enrolled and momentum toward a degree. 

 
34

Table 3.1. Educational attainment of 1992 12th graders who subsequently entered

postsecondary education, through December 2000, in terms of ‘credit

attainment,’ by race/ethnicity, gender, and socioeconomic status

Percent of students by highest number of credits or credential earned

 No

 degree

No No No but at Certi- Asso- Bache- Percent

degree degree degree least ficate ciate’s lors’ or of total

0-10 cr 11-29 cr 30-59 cr 60 cr high high higher in group

 All 12.2 11.6 8.9 10.1 5.0 8.1 44.1 (0.69) (0.71) (0.56) (0.55) (0.43) (0.50) (1.08) 

Race/ethnicity

White 9.7 10.2 8.4 9.6 5.0 8.6 48.6 74.2

(0.65) (0.74) (0.55) (0.59) (0.50) (0.58) (1.13) (1.32)

African-American 20.5 17.5 10.9 10.3 5.2 4.9 30.7 10.5

(3.57) (3.28) (2.42) (1.84) (1.22) (1.11) (3.31) (0.90)

Latino 19.8 19.5 11.9 11.8 5.2 8.3 23.5 9.4

(2.26) (2.53) (2.10) (2.30) (1.27) (1.73) (2.52) (0.91)

Asian 11.4 5.9 5.2 14.6 4.3 7.6 51.0 5.0

(3.10) (1.17) (1.09) (3.66) (1.50) (3.03) (4.30) (0.47)

American Indian 32.1 11.0 25.0 7.4 1.3 6.6 16.6 0.8

(10.8) (3.40) (11.0) (3.92) (1.02) (3.24) (5.32) (0.25)

Gender

Men 12.5 12.7 9.8 12.8 3.9 7.5 40.9 46.8

(1.05) (1.07) (0.89) (0.96) (0.46) (0.70) (1.49) (0.93)

Women 11.9 10.7 8.2 7.7 5.9 8.7 47.0 53.2

(0.90) (0.89) (0.67) (0.59) (0.68) (0.69) (1.32) (0.93)

SES quintile

81st - 100th percentile 3.0 4.9 4.7 10.4 1.5 4.0 71.6 29.1

 (high) (0.44) (0.77) (0.58) (1.11) (0.42) (0.60) (1.56) (1.08)

61st - 80th percentile 11.3 12.4 10.1 11.7 3.9 6.9 43.6 25.3

(1.53) (1.70) (1.17) (1.27) (0.85) (0.95) (1.92) (0.88)

41st - 60th percentile 16.5 14.0 9.2 9.6 5.5 11.9 33.3 20.2

(1.78) (1.50) (0.86) (1.07) (0.79) (1.29) (1.78) (0.73)

21st - 40th percentile 19.3 14.0 11.5 9.3 6.8 11.4 27.7 15.4

(1.66) (1.61) (1.46) (0.86) (1.31) (1.32) (1.77) (0.61)

1st - 20th percentile 19.9 19.4 13.0 7.3 13.6 11.1 15.7 10.0

 (low) (2.91) (2.39) (2.37) (1.13) (2.04) (1.93) (1.86) (0.73)

NOTES: (1) The universe consists of all 1992 12th graders who became postsecondary participants. Weighted N =

2.09M. (2) Rows may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (3) Column sub-population percentages for

“percent of total in group” may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (4) “Certificate High” means that the

student’s highest attained degree was a certificate; “Associate’s High” means that the student’s highest attained

degree was the associate’s. (5) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
35

In terms of postsecondary attendance

• only 57 percent of those who became incidental students (versus 86 percent of

their peers) entered directly following high school graduation;

• 66 percent of incidental students (versus 5 percent of nonincidental students) were

enrolled for less than 1 year; and

• in the last year (2000) of the Class of 1992 history, only 8 percent of incidental

students were still enrolled versus 22 percent of nonincidental students.

As an open door institution, the community college was the initial host to three-quarters of those

who became incidental students. Researchers and administrators interested in the ways in which

community colleges can identify those students in the “incidental student profile” who have the

best chance of succeeding are encouraged to use the NELS:88/2000 files to help determine 

(1) which features of student history seem to be the most significant barriers, and (2) which of

those features can be addressed by practical local initiatives. State-system studies, such as that

in Washington state (Steppanen 2000), have shown that a measurable proportion of entering

students plans to stay for fewer than 10 credits and that half of that group fulfills its plans—

factors of cohort history that cannot be pursued with the NELS:88/2000 but are worthy of

consideration.

Table 3.2. Percent of 1992 12th graders who became incidental postsecondary students

versus those who became nonincidental postsecondary students, by

demographic and academic history characteristics: 1992-2000

Incidental Nonincidental

(0-10 credits) (More than 10 credits)

Proportion of all students 12.2 (0.69) 87.8 (0.69)

Had children by 1992 6.3 (1.58) 1.9 (0.44)

High school diploma

None 0.1 (0.06) 0.1 (0.04)

Standard 91.4 (2.05) 98.3 (0.43)

GED 8.0 (2.01) 1.4 (0.41)

Certificate of attendance 0.5 (0.41) 0.2 (0.12)

Urbanicity of high school

Urban 33.1 (3.35) 27.8 (1.51)

Suburban 36.1 (3.17) 43.8 (1.80)

Rural 30.8 (2.87) 28.4 (2.87)

See notes at end of table.
36

Table 3.2. Percent of 1992 12th graders who became incidental postsecondary students 

 versus those who became nonincidental postsecondary students, by

demographic and academic history characteristics: 1992-2000–Continued

Incidental Nonincidental

Months between high school

graduation and postsecondary entry

0-7 57.2 (3.12) 86.4 (0.78)

8-20 16.9 (2.39) 7.2 (0.65)

More than 20 25.9 (2.74) 6.4 (0.47)

At least one GED-level

postsecondary transcript1 17.1 (2.63) 0.7 (0.12)

Type of 1st institution of attendance

Doctoral 4.7 (0.89) 26.5 (0.97)

Other 4-year 14.8 (2.82) 32.9 (0.93)

Community college 75.1 (2.98) 35.9 (1.11)

Other sub-baccalaureate 5.3 (1.34) 4.7 (0.38)

Continuity of enrollment

Continuous 12.0 (1.91) 73.3 (0.93)

Stop-out after 3 years NA2 4.0 (0.38)

 of continuous

Noncontinuous 22.3 (2.70) 17.8 (0.80)

Enrolled for less 65.7 (3.07) 4.9 (0.40)

 than 1 year

Not enrolled in 2000 92.1 (2.10) 77.6 (0.74)

(last year of tracking)

High school academic curriculum

intensity quintile1

Highest 2.6 (0.75) 25.3 (1.01) 

2nd 10.0 (2.59) 25.6 (0.92)

3rd 22.5 (2.69) 22.2 (0.86)

4th 38.4 (3.37) 17.3 (0.84)

Lowest 26.5 (2.49) 9.6 (0.60)

High school class rank/GPA

quintile1

Highest 3.6 (1.01) 27.9 (0.92)

2nd 13.0 (3.00) 22.1 (0.81)

3rd 18.9 (2.18) 21.2 (0.81)

4th 22.0 (2.50) 17.3 (0.86)

Lowest 42.6 (3.46) 11.5 (0.63)

See notes at end of table.
37

Table 3.2. Percent of 1992 12th graders who became incidental postsecondary students 

 versus those who became nonincidental postsecondary students, by

demographic and academic history characteristics: 1992-2000–Continued

Incidental Nonincidental

Highest mathematics in

high school

Calculus 1.9 (0.66) 13.9 (0.67)

Precalculus 1.8 (0.47) 15.6 (0.93)

Trigonometry 6.6 (2.54) 14.0 (0.79)

Algebra 2 27.3 (2.64) 32.0 (1.05)

Geometry 20.9 (2.89) 13.3 (0.74)

Algebra 1 29.8 (2.92) 9.1 (0.59)

Less than Algebra 1 11.8 (1.80) 2.2 (0.33)

Consistency and level of

educational expectations,

1990-19923

Bachelor’s consistent 24.3 (2.72) 60.3 (1.04)

Raised to bachelor’s 15.9 (2.18) 13.0 (0.62)

Lowered from bachelor’s 21.3 (2.00) 11.6 (0.69)

Raised to some college 15.3 (2.07) 4.2 (0.34)

Consistent sub-baccalaureate 17.0 (3.10) 9.4 (0.67)

No college plans 6.2 (1.37) 1.6 (0.28)

1

See the Glossary for a description of these variables. 2 Not applicable: none of the incidental students was enrolled for 3 years.

3 Based on questions asked in the 10th grade (1990) and 12th grade (1992) follow-up surveys.

NOTES: (1) Maximum weighted Ns in cross-tabs: Incidental Students (Weighted N = 254k); Nonincidental

Students (Weighted N = 1.84M); (2) Columns for variables with multiple values may not sum to 100.0 percent

because of rounding; (3) standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.

The case of the long-term noncompleters, those who earned 60 or more credits but no degree,

may be important to institutions seeking to improve their degree completion rates. Students who

have reached this level of “credit retention,” one can hypothesize, have the momentum to

complete degrees. Table 3.3 lays out some of the factors that analysts might consider in testing

this hypothesis. More accurately, the table suggests some of the variables that could be used in a

quasi-experimental design, based on the Class of 1992 data, that could help identify the factors

associated with completion starting at the level of 60 credits. 

Table 3.3 compares the 60+ group with those students who earned associate’s or bachelor’s

degrees. The following are some highlights of the comparison:

• The 60+ population is more likely to start its postsecondary career in a

community college than those who completed degrees (40 percent vs. 24 percent),
14With the exception of the 2nd highest quintile in the distribution of high school academic curriculum

intensity, the percentage of those from the 60 or more credit group was lesser at the higher levels and greater at the

lower levels than that for those who earned associate’s and/or bachelor’s degrees.

38

 and to attend more than one institution (74 percent vs. 59 percent). Indeed, a third

of the long-term noncompleters attended more than two institutions.

• The 60+ population presents a weaker academic performance record starting with

the academic intensity of its high school curriculum,14 and continuing with a

significant percentage (42) of its members earning 20 or fewer credits during their

first calendar year of attendance (versus 15 percent of those who earned degrees).

• The gap between noncompleters and completers in the proportion who were

continuously enrolled is also notable, as is the proportion of noncompleters who

withdrew from more than 12 credits of academic work (38 percent vs. 11 percent

of completers). 

Low credit production in the first year of enrollment, noncontinuous enrollment, and a notable

use of nonpenalty course withdrawals, one hypothesizes, slow progress toward any degree. But,

as table 3.3 reveals, over one-third of the long-term noncompleters were persisting in the final

year (2000) of the Class of 1992 history.

Notably, 26 percent of the 60+ group was enrolled in candidacy for the bachelor’s degree, and

4.3 percent (about a fifth of this group) were judged likely to earn the bachelor’s within the

following year. To meet the threshold criteria for the variable “BALIKELY” (likely bachelor’s

degree by December 2001) students were enrolled in 2000 with more than 90 earned credits,

carried a GPA of 2.75 or higher, and had a major indicated on their current transcript. Telephone

calls to registrars in the course of data file construction confirmed that some of these students

had, in fact, earned degrees in 2001, but they could not be credited with the degree in the Class

of 1992 files because the date of award fell after the closing date of the study. 

In addition, 6 percent of the 60+ group had already met the criteria for an associate’s degree: 

(1) earned more than 65 credits from a community college, (2) earned credits in English

composition, (3) earned credits in at least college-level mathematics and each of the major

disciplinary areas (humanities/arts, social sciences, and sciences) or presented an occupationally

oriented program with more than 20 credits in an occupational field such as allied health

sciences/services, and (4) held a GPA of 2.50 or higher. This phenomenon of the associate’s

degree eligible (but no degree) student was developed and refined in light of presentations by

and discussions with community college administrators (Garber 2002). Their explanations of

how this phenomenon arises (some students are not aware that they qualified for the degree or

had not filed the appropriate paper work; others have qualified academically but have not met

local physical education requirements or have unfulfilled financial obligations to the school; and

still others are more interested in transferring than earning the associate’s credential) cannot be

tested with the NELS:88/2000 data.
39

Table 3.3. Percent of 1992 12th graders who earned 60 or more postsecondary credits

but no degree, compared with those who earned associate’s and/or bachelor’s

degrees, by selected characteristics of academic history: 1992-2000

60 or more credits Associate’s 

no degree and/or bachelor’s

All 16.2 (0.84) 83.8 (0.84)

Months between high school

graduation and college entry

0-7 87.6 (1.66) 94.1 (0.65)

8-20 6.8 (1.44) 3.9 (0.58)

More than 20 5.6 (0.85) 2.0 (0.31)

High school academic curriculum

intensity quintile

Highest 16.8 (1.87) 35.4 (1.31)

2nd 24.8 (3.18) 29.5 (1.10)

3rd 24.8 (2.33) 19.6 (0.97)

4th 24.3 (2.77) 11.2 (0.88)

Lowest 9.3 (1.33) 4.4 (0.48)

Type of 1st institution

Doctoral 24.0 (2.13) 35.6 (1.25)

Other 4-year 33.8 (2.54) 38.4 (1.17)

Community college 40.3 (2.85) 23.9 (1.20)

Other sub-baccalaureate 1.9 (0.53) 2.1 (0.32)

Number of schools attended

One 25.6 (2.13) 40.8 (1.22)

Two 40.7 (3.05) 36.0 (1.11)

More than two 33.7 (2.99) 23.2 (1.08)

Credits earned in 1st calendar

year of attendance

0-10 18.9 (2.95) 4.2 (0.54)

11-20 23.1 (1.93) 10.8 (0.79)

21-28 34.7 (2.50) 32.6 (1.11)

More than 28 23.3 (2.11) 52.4 (1.20)

See notes at end of table.
40

Table 3.3. Percent of 1992 12th graders who earned 60 or more postsecondary credits,

but no degree, compared with those who earned associate’s and/or bachelor’s

degrees, by selected characteristics of academic history: 1992-2000-continued

60 or more credits Associate’s 

no degree and/or bachelor’s

Credits in courses from which

the student withdrew

0 16.3 (1.61) 45.7 (1.28)

1-6 26.6 (2.24) 29.5 (1.03)

7-12 18.0 (1.76) 14.2 (0.85)

13-19 17.6 (1.85) 6.5 (0.59)

20 or more 20.5 (1.95) 4.1 (0.52)

Continuity of enrollment

Continuous 55.9 (2.73) 88.6 (0.74)

Stop-out after 3 years

 of continuous 13.0 (1.61) 2.5 (0.27)

Noncontinuous 27.8 (2.60) 7.9 (0.68)

Indeterminable 3.3 (1.24) 1.0 (0.30)

Trend in GPA from 1st year

through 2nd year to final term

Rising 24.2 (2.83) 39.7 (1.14)

Flat 51.8 (2.94) 42.7 (1.15)

Declining 24.0 (2.01) 17.6 (0.97)

In-school status in 2000

Graduate student # 13.5 (0.82)

Bachelor’s candidate 26.1 (2.37) 1.9 (0.33)

Associate’s candidate 8.1 (1.08) #

Other undergraduate 1.8 (0.48) 1.1 (0.21)

Not in school 63.9 (2.62) 83.4 (0.89)

Planned enrollment in 2001 67.5 (3.12) 49.6 (1.23)

Bachelor’s likely by Dec., 2001 4.3 (0.81) 0.3 (0.09)

Eligible for associate’s degree

but no degree awarded 5.9 (1.70) †

# Rounds to zero.

† Not applicable.

NOTES: (1) Columns for variables with multiple values may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (2)

Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
41

One of the most significant contrasts between the 60+ group and those who earned associate’s or

bachelor’s degrees lies in noncontinuous enrollment, commonly termed “stop-out.” Not every

departure from higher education is permanent (Horn 1998), but continuous enrollment — even

for minimal amounts of earned credit — is strongly associated with degree completion (Adelman

1999b). Longitudinal studies that continue as long as that of the Class of 1992 (8.5 years from

the modal year of postsecondary entry, 1992), the Class of 1982 (11 years), and the Class of

1972 (12 years), require greater latitude in the definition of stop-out than do shorter term studies

(e.g., the 5-year Beginning Postsecondary Students study of 1989-1994 (BPS:90/94). For all

three grade-cohort longitudinal studies, the threshold of noncontinuous enrollment was more

than one semester (or two quarters), excluding summer terms. And if a student stopped out for

one semester (or two quarters) more than once, the student’s enrollment was considered

noncontinuous. In examining the Class of 1992 transcripts, a different type of noncontinuous

enrollment pattern was noted: from the term of first attendance, the student was continuously

enrolled for at least three full academic years before the first stop-out period occurred. One out

of eight of the 60+ students evidence this timing of stop-out, and, as event-history analyses of the

longitudinal studies point out, timing may override other factors in explaining degree completion

(DesJardins, McCall, Ahlburg, and Moye 2002).

First-to-Second Year Retention

The vocabulary of studies of postsecondary student histories is not always consistent in labeling

the phenomenon of year-to-year continuous enrollment. Whether the phenomenon is termed

“persistence” or “retention,” it has been a persistent concern of researchers and policymakers for

three decades (Astin 1975; Dey and Astin 1989; Tinto 1987; Smith 1998), and usually with a

focus on institutional retention of an entering class to the second year. The question regarding

retention is customarily phrased: What proportion of students who started out at an institution in

the fall term of year X is enrolled at the same institution in the fall term of year X+1?

Table 3.4, based on the Class of 1992 history, is designed to cast light on this question from a

different perspective, one that recognizes that not all beginning students start out in the fall term

or return in the fall term, and that some students are in programs of less than 1 year duration. The

table is focused on the student, not the institution, and hence answers the question within the

panorama of all institutions in which the student enrolls. As one of the reviewers of this

document added, “since most institutions count transfers [out] as ‘noncompleters’ in their

retention statistics, this view of transfers from a cohort perspective can be [a] useful

[corrective].”

The algorithm that produces table 3.4 uses an academic calendar year (defined as July 1 through

June 30) as a frame. It flags the academic year in which the student’s first term date of

attendance at his/her true first institution falls. It then asks whether the student was enrolled at

any time during the following academic year. If that condition was met, the student exhibited a

threshold degree of systemwide retention. Among the students who did not meet the threshold

criterion, however, are a small group who earned certificates in less-than-1-year programs during

their first year of attendance. This group is separated from the larger populations who were

retained or not retained. 
42

Table 3.4. Retention from first to second year of postsecondary education of 1992 12th

graders who entered postsecondary education at any time, 1992-2000:

Percent of students retained and not retained from year one to year two, and

who completed one-year certificate programs

1-year Not

Retained certificates retained

All 88.1 (0.64) 0.9 (0.13) 11.0 (0.62)

Proportion who returned

to PSE after the second 89.9 (0.71) 24.6 (7.02) 23.8 (2.50)

year

Type of 1st institution

(rows add to 100 percent)

Doctoral 97.4 (0.44) # 2.6 (0.43)

Other 4-year 92.8 (1.01) # 7.2 (1.01)

Community college 81.6 (1.23) 0.4 (0.09) 18.0 (1.22)

Other sub-baccalaureate 71.0 (3.10) 14.8 (2.51) 14.2 (2.10)

Type of 1st institution

(columns add to 100 percent)

Doctoral 26.7 (0.99) 1.3 (1.11) 5.8 (0.99)

Other 4-year 32.7 (0.94) 3.0 (1.71) 20.6 (2.71)

Community college 36.8 (1.15) 15.7 (4.20) 67.2 (2.80)

Other sub-baccalaureate 3.8 (0.37) 80.0 (4.63) 6.4 (1.00) 

Credits earned in 1st year

(columns add to 100 percent)

0-10 16.8 (0.90) 26.2 (6.83) 70.7 (2.41)

11-20 18.3 (0.87) 11.9 (5.03) 19.2 (1.94)

21-28 27.9 (0.88) 12.6 (3.78) 7.7 (1.43)

More than 28 37.0 (0.98) 49.3 (7.20) 2.4 (0.58)

High school academic

curriculum intensity quintile1

(columns add to 100 percent)

Highest 25.7 (1.04) 1.8 (1.42) 4.6 (0.94)

2nd 25.3 (0.94) 12.3 (7.48) 15.2 (3.12)

3rd 22.5 (0.88) 15.7 (5.20) 20.8 (2.23)

4th 17.1 (0.86) 42.9 (8.58) 35.2 (3.27)

Lowest 9.3 (0.61) 27.2 (6.19) 24.2 (2.24) 

# Rounds to zero.

1 See the Glossary for an elaboration of this variable.

NOTES: (1) The universe consists of all 1992 12th graders who became postsecondary participants. Weighted N =

2.04M. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. (3) For detail above the line, rows may not sum because of rounding;

for detail below the line, columns may not sum because of rounding. 

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
43

Defined in this manner, the reader will note that the systemwide retention rate is higher for those

who began in doctoral degree-granting institutions than it was for those who began in other 4-

year colleges, and that these rates are higher than for those who began in community colleges,

which, in turn, are higher than for those who first attended other sub-baccalaureate institutions. 

The case of other sub-baccalaureate institutions, though, must be judged in light of the fact that

15 percent of students who start out in those institutions earn 1-year certificates within the first

year of attendance.

Perhaps more important than the fact of first to second year retention is the quality of retention. 

While there may be many measures of quality of first year academic performance, the proxy

chosen for table 3.4 is total credits earned during that period. Among those who were retained,

35 percent earned 20 or fewer credits, an amount that has been demonstrated to have a distinctly

negative relationship to degree completion (Adelman 1999b). Not surprisingly, among those

who were not retained, 90 percent earned 20 or fewer credits in the first calendar year of

attendance.

A second dimension of retention quality, particularly given the definition of systemwide

retention used in table 3.4, is continuous enrollment. That is, it is possible for a student to have

been enrolled in the fall semester of 1992, not enrolled again until the spring semester of 1994

and still be considered “retained” under the definition used here. As has been noted above, in

the transcript-based postsecondary histories of NCES grade-cohort longitudinal studies, noncontinuous enrollment is defined as any stop-out period exceeding one semester (or its

equivalent), exclusive of summer terms (see Glossary); and continuity of enrollment has been

demonstrated to have a very positive relationship with degree completion (Carroll 1989, Horn

1998, Adelman 1999b). In the example used, the stop-out period was two semesters. While not

in table 3.4, some 25.1 percent (s.e.= 0.96) of those who were retained exhibited noncontinuous

enrollment at some time in their undergraduate careers. If a student’s year-1 to year-2 retention

includes noncontinuous enrollment, momentum toward degree completion may be weakened.

Table 3.4 invites researchers to explore these and other dimensions of the quality of retention,

not only from the first to second year, but beyond. Indeed, table 3.4 extends beyond first-tosecond year retention to provide some indication of the degree to which students who did not

enroll in the second year following postsecondary entry return to school at a later point in time. 

For example, 24 percent of the students who were not retained from year one to year two

reappeared in the postsecondary system in the third or later year. Even among the small group of

those who earned a certificate in their first year of postsecondary education and who did not

enroll at any time during the second year, 25 percent came back to school in a subsequent year. 
44

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45

Part 4:

Attendance Patterns: Portraits of Mobility

It has been noted that the traditional-age students in the three grade-cohort longitudinal studies

increasingly attend more than one institution in the course of their undergraduate careers. But, as

table 4.1 illustrates, the degree of change in this gross measure of multi-institutional behavior has

been modest, and located principally in the general nonincidental student population, not in the

sub-population of bachelor’s degree completers. Roughly 60 percent of bachelor’s degree

recipients have attended more than one school as undergraduates since the 1970s.

Table 4.1. Percent of 1972, 1982, and 1992 12th graders who attended one, two, or more

than two schools as undergraduates

Class of 1972 Class of 1982 Class of 1992

(1972-84) (1982-93) (1992-2000)

All who earned

more than 10 credits

One 52.5 (0.55) 48.7 (0.85) 43.5 (1.06)

Two 32.5 (0.49) 32.7 (0.75) 35.1 (0.93)

More than two 15.0 (0.30) 18.6 (0.62) 21.5 (0.84)

All who earned

bachelor’s degrees

One 42.8 (0.87) 42.0 (1.14) 40.6 (1.32)

Two 38.2 (0.80) 36.7 (1.06) 36.7 (1.20)

More than two 19.0 (0.60) 21.3 (0.96) 22.7 (1.14)

NOTES: (1) Columns may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

(3) Weighted Ns for all who earned more than 10 credits: Class of 1972 = 1.54M; Class of 1982 = 1.87M; Class of

1992 = 1.83M. For all students who earned bachelor’s degrees: Class of 1972 = 734k; Class of 1982 = 825k; Class

of 1992 = 921k. 

SOURCES: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, High School and Beyond/Sophomore

Cohort, NCES 2000-194); NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.

The more important question may be how students attend more than one institution, and what

combination of institutional types they attend. The Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992 files

offer the opportunity for some basic observations about the changes beneath the surface of multiinstitutional behavior. The comparative data are presented in table 4.2.
46

Table 4.2. Percent of 12th graders in the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992 who

attended different combinations of postsecondary institutional types

Class of 1982 Class of 1992

 (1982-1993) (1992-2000)

All who All who

earned earned

All students more than10 credits All students more than 10 credits

Institutional type

combinations

4-year only 39.5 (0.91) 44.9 (0.98) 37.9 (1.01) 42.0 (1.12)

4-year, then

2-year 3.6 (0.28) 4.0 (0.32) 4.3 (0.40) 4.6 (0.43)

2-year, then

4-year 8.1 (0.42) 9.3 (0.49) 10.7 (0.60) 12.6 (0.69)

Alternating 2-year

and 4-year 4.4 (0.30) 5.2 (0.35) 7.2 (0.65) 7.8 (0.59)

4-year plus

incidental 2-year -----1 -----1 6.0 (0.45) 7.3 (0.55)

4-year plus other

sub-baccalaureate 2.6 (0.22) 2.5 (0.24) 0.9 (0.16) 1.0 (0.18)

2-year only 25.8 (0.74) 21.3 (0.74) 27.2 (0.96) 20.7 (0.96)

2-year plus other

sub-baccalaureate 3.9 (0.32) 2.8 (0.27) 2.1 (0.24) 1.7 (0.18)

Other subbaccalaureate only 10.3 (0.62) 8.2 (0.64) 2.9 (0.30) 1.5 (0.22)

4-year, 2-year and

other sub-bacca- 1.7 (0.22) 1.8 (0.26) 0.7 (0.14) 0.8 (0.17)

laureate

1 The category of “4-year plus incidental 2-year” is new to the NELS:88/2000 accounting, and principally describes

4-year college students who occasionally attend community colleges during summer terms. In coding the

transcripts of the High School Class of 1982, students who may have exhibited this pattern of attendance were

included in the category “4-year only.”

NOTES: (1) The universe of all students consists of 12th graders who became likely postsecondary participants.

Class of 1982 Weighted N = 2.14M; Class of 1992 Weighted N = 2.09M. (2) The universe for students earning

more than 10 credits in both cohorts consists of 12th graders for whom postsecondary transcripts were received. 

Class of 1982 Weighted N = 1.84M; Class of 1992 Weighted N = 1.83M. (3) Columns may not sum to 100.0

percent because of rounding. (4) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCES: High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary

Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
47

The major inter-cohort changes among nonincidental students (those earning more than 10

credits) evident in table 4.2 involve increases in the percentages of students either moving from 

2-year to 4-year institutions or alternating attendance between 2-year and 4-year institutions. 

The category of “2-year” institutions is dominated by community colleges but also includes 2-

year branch campuses of 4-year schools and associate’s degree-granting for-profit and not-forprofit schools.

Part of the decline in 4-year only attendance is an artifice of the creation of a new category of

institutional combination for the Class of 1992, hence the decline is not significant. This

category describes students who are based in 4-year colleges but who use 2-year colleges

(principally community colleges) for incidental purposes (84 percent of this group earned 10 or

fewer credits from 2-year schools), and usually during summer terms. In the Class of 1992

cohort, this group totals over 7 percent of nonincidental students. In the Class of 1982 cohort,

these students were classified under the category of 4-year only.

The other major phenomenon observable in table 4.2 is that when the boundaries of the universe

are narrowed from all students to those who earned more than 10 credits, the proportion of

students attending “2-year colleges only” and “other sub-baccalaureate colleges only” falls,

while the proportion of those attending “4-year colleges only” rises. The narrowing of

boundaries eliminates the incidental students, who are less likely to attend more than one

institution.

Transfer as a Subset of Multi-Institutional Attendance

Tables 4.3 and 4.4 take up the transfer phenomenon, a subset of multi-institutional attendance. 

Table 4.3 is exploratory in that it sets forth six attendance configurations involving both 2-year

and 4-year institutions. For each configuration, table 4.3 indicates the percentage of students

who earn a bachelor’s degree and the mean number of credits they earn from three different

types of institutions: 4-year, community colleges, and other 2-year (not-for-profit and for-profit

associate’s degree-granting schools). 

The data show that students who start in a community college but who earn 10 or fewer credits

from the community college before moving on to a 4-year institution have comparatively low

(6.4 percent) bachelor’s degree completion rates compared to students who start in a community

college and who earn more than 10 credits from the community college (a mean of 56.1 credits)

before moving on to a 4-year college (and earning more than 10 credits from 4-year colleges).

These students enjoyed a much higher bachelor’s degree completion rate (62.3 percent). This is

the largest of the five transfer populations described.

What aspects of sustained community college experience yield a bachelor’s degree when the

student moves to a 4-year environment? What is it about early transfer from a community

college to a 4-year school that diminishes a student’s chances of earning a bachelor’s degree? 

When these attendance patterns are combined with students’ secondary school records and

detailed college coursework, they might offer some intriguing hypotheses for further research

(see, for example, Florida Council for Education Policy, Research, and Improvement 2002).
48

Table 4.3. Percent of 1992 12th graders who transferred between the 2-year and 4-year 

 sectors of higher education at some time, 1992-2000, by type of transfer pattern 

 and mean credits earned at different types of institutions

 Percent

Mean Mean of all

Mean credits credits from credits from in transfer

from 4-year community college other 2-year patterns

 (s.e.) (s.e.) (s.e.) 

 

#1) Begins in community 39.3 (6.46) 5.3 (0.62) 0.03 (0.33) 2.9 (0.65)

college, earns 10 or fewer 

community college credits, 

subsequently earns any 

credits from 4-year colleges

Percent earning bachelor’s: 6.4 (3.14)

.................................................................................................................................................................. #2) Begins in community 71.8 (1.89) 56.1 (1.71) 2.2 (2.04) 32.9 (1.69)

college, earns more than 10 

community college credits,

subsequently earns more than

10 credits from 4-year colleges

Percent earning bachelor’s: 62.3 (3.41)

.................................................................................................................................................................. #3) Begins in community 3.3 (0.43) 47.6 (3.01) 1.8 (0.82) 6.2 (0.64)

college, earns more than 10

community college credits,

enrolls in a 4-year college, and

earns 10 or fewer 4-year college

credits

Percent earning bachelor’s: #

 ............................................................................................................................................................. #4) Begins a 2-year institution 32.6 (4.94) 22.0 (4.44) 24.8 (4.56) 4.5 (0.64)

other than a community college 

and subsequently enrolls in

a 4-year college, or starts in 

a community college and

earns both community college

and 4-year college credits but

last date of attendance at

community college falls 

after last date at 4-year college

Percent earning bachelor’s: 28.7 (7.26)

................................................................................................................................................................. #5) Begins in a 4-year college 68.7 (3.03) 33.3 (1.19) 3.9 (0.94) 25.2 (1.45)

and earns more than 10 

credits in the 2-year sector

Percent earning bachelor’s: 38.2 (3.01)

.................................................................................................................................................................. #6) Begins in a 4-year college 112.4 (3.56) 3.8 (0.17) # 28.3 (1.53)

and subsequently earns 10 or 

fewer credits in the 2-year 

sector 

Percent earning bachelor’s: 73.6 (2.88) 

# Rounds to zero.

NOTES: (1) The universe consists of all students who earned credits in both 2-year and 4-year colleges (Weighted

N = 682k). (2) The column “Percent of all in transfer patterns” may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding.

(3) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
49

As the comments on table 4.3 suggest, the five patterns of 2-year/4-year college attendance do

not necessarily constitute “transfer.” Since early analyses of the Class of 1972, “classic transfer”

in the grade cohort transcript-based data sets has been defined as follows:

The student who starts in a community college and earns more than 10 credits from

the community college, then moves to a 4-year college and earns more than 10 credits

from the 4-year college has transferred, even if the student returns to the community

college at any time.

This is the definition used for the second of the transfer groups in table 4.3. Even if the threshold

is changed from 10 to 12 or 15 credits (American Council on Education 1991; Jones 1991;

Cohen and Brawer 1996), with this definition, those community college students who merely

attended a 4-year college can be distinguished from those who truly transferred. With this

definition, one can examine the universe of those students whose true first institution of

attendance was a community college, derive a national “transfer rate,” and follow changes in that

rate and the ultimate degree attainments of students who transfer, over time. Table 4.4 does this

across the three longitudinal studies cohorts. 

The first universe of analysis in table 4.4 consists of all students who started out in community

colleges, no matter how long they stayed, in terms of credits earned from community colleges.

From the Class of 1972 to the Class of 1982, we note a rise in the proportion of those who

become incidental students. Between the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992, there was

• an increase in the proportion of these students who attended a 4-year college

(from 29 to 37 percent);

• an increase in the proportion of these students who transferred to a 4-year college

(from 21 to 27 percent); and

• no significant change in the combined associate’s degree/bachelor’s degree

attainment rate (32 percent).

For the second universe of analysis, the first step in the classic transfer process is required:

starting in a community college and earning more than 10 credits from the community college.

For this group, there was

• an increase between the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992 in the proportion of

students who attended a 4-year college (from 35 to 44 percent; and from 32 to 44

percent from the Class of 1972 to the Class of 1992);

• no significant change in the combined associate’s degree/bachelor’s degree

attainment rate (41-43 percent); and

• a transfer rate increasing from 28 percent (Class of 1972) and 27 percent (Class

of 1982) to 36 percent for the Class of 1992. This figure is somewhat higher than

other national estimates, but those other estimates include all students who start in

community colleges, not just traditional-age 12th graders (see Cohen 1993).

It is the derivative of the second analysis, though, that is critical to the authority of the transfer

indicator. That derivative is the bachelor’s degree completion rate of traditional-age “classic

transfer” students. For the classes of 1972 and 1982, both 11-12 year studies, the rate was 72

percent. For the Class of 1992, with an 8.5 year time frame, the rate was 62 percent. These rates

compare favorably with those of the overall nonincidental postsecondary populations in all three

cohorts (see table 2.1) and the population of students who earned any credits from 4-year

colleges in the Class of 1972 and the Class of 1982 (see table 2.2). For the Class of 1992, there

was no significant difference between the bachelor’s degree attainment rate of community

college transfer students and that of all students who earned any credits from 4-year colleges (see

table 2.2).
50

Table 4.4. Transfer and degree completion rates of 12th graders in the classes of 1972,

 1982, and 1992 who first entered postsecondary education at a community

 college

Class of 1972 Class of 1982 Class of 1992

 (1972-84) (1982-93) (1992-2000)

All

Earned 10 or fewer 18.8 (0.68) 22.5 (1.10) 21.1 (1.26)

credits from all institutions

Attended a 4-year college 28.5 (0.79) 28.9 (1.12) 36.5 (1.65)

Transferred to a 4-year college 21.4 (0.70) 20.8 (1.06) 27.1 (1.54)

Highest degree was:

No degree 59.8 (0.93) 61.5 (1.20) 63.2 (1.59)

Certificate 5.0 (0.40) 6.4 (0.64) 5.5 (0.81)

Associate’s 16.9 (0.65) 16.7 (0.88) 14.2 (1.08)

Bachelor’s 18.2 (0.72) 15.4 (0.92) 17.1 (1.20)

Earned more than 10 credits from

community colleges

Attended a 4-year college 31.5 (0.89) 34.6 (1.40) 44.0 (1.95)

 Highest degree was:

No degree 50.8 (1.06) 50.4 (1.44) 53.6 (1.90)

Certificate 5.7 (0.48) 7.8 (0.80) 5.7 (0.96)

Associate’s 22.8 (0.85) 22.3 (1.15) 18.2 (1.36)

Bachelor’s 20.6 (0.79) 19.5 (1.20) 22.5 (1.53)

Transferred to a 4-year college 28.1 (0.37) 26.9 (1.32) 36.0 (1.88)

 Highest degree was:

No degree 15.3 (1.32) 12.3 (1.66) 23.7 (3.02)

Certificate 1.0 (0.29) 0.6 (0.23) 2.2 (0.18)

Associate’s 12.0 (1.15) 14.8 (1.87) 11.8 (2.13)

Bachelor’s 71.7 (1.61) 72.4 (2.38) 62.3 (3.40)

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of 12th graders who first entered postsecondary education at a community college.

Weighted Ns: Class of 1972 = 686k; Class of 1982 = 872k; Class of 1992 = 814k. For those who earned more than

10 credits from community colleges: Class of 1972 = 522k, Class of 1982 = 618k, and Class of 1992 = 614k. (2)

Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics: National Longitudinal Study of the 

High School Class of 1972, High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194, and the NELS:88/2000

Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
51

The Role of Special Mission Institutions in the Attendance Patterns of Minority Students

The gaps in aspects of access, participation, and degree completion between majority and

minority populations noted in tables 2.1, 2.2, 2.4, 2.5, 2.6., and 2.7 are frequently cited in the

literature. In response, one line of research aimed at ways of improving persistence and

completion rates of minority students has focused on the roles of institutions whose special

mission is to serve and nurture specific minority populations (see, e.g., Kim 2002; Allen 1992).

There are two large groups of institutions with such special missions:

• Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), many of which have

been serving African-Americans for over a century, were chartered with this

mission (Hoffman, Snyder, and Sonnenberg 1992); and

• Hispanic Serving Institutions (HSIs), which are defined not by charter but

instead by the proportion of their students who are Latino. These proportions

grew in time and the designation of an HSI (requiring a minimum of 25 percent

Latino enrollment) is a comparatively recent one (Stearns and Watanabe 2002).

In 89 of the 103 HBCUs, the proportion of students who were African-American in 1999 was

over 75 percent (Snyder 2002, table 221, pp. 264-5), and the vast majority (89) of HBCUs are 4-

year institutions or specialized graduate schools. The proportion of students who were Latino in

the HSIs ranged from the threshold of 25 percent to 95 percent. Three-quarters of HSIs are

community colleges, reflecting the historical attendance preferences of Hispanic populations

(Snyder 2002, table 219, pp. 259-262; Adam 1999).

The NELS:88/2000 allows for an accounting of the use of these special mission institutions by

their target populations. Tables 4.5 and 4.6 present selected aspects of that use and its outcomes.

Table 4.5 takes the full universe of African-American 12th graders in 1992 and divides their

attendance pattern accounts with reference to enrollment in HBCUs. There are five patterns, two

of which involve HBCUs. Slightly more than one out of five African-American students in the

Class of 1992 started their postsecondary careers in an HBCU, and about 27 percent of AfricanAmerican students attended an HBCU at some time. The reader will note that

• The bachelor’s degree attainment rate of those African-American students who

started in HBCUs was 49 percent, compared with a completion rate of 54 percent

for African-Americans who attended 4-year institutions other than HBCUs. The

difference is not statistically significant.
52

Table 4.5. Percentage distribution of 1992 12th grade African-American students’ postsecondary attendance patterns with reference to Historically Black

Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), by attendance pattern: 1992-2000

Percent of African-American students who . . .

Began at Did not attend an HBCU and attendance:

other type but earned dominated1

 confined to dominated1by Began at credits from by 4-year 2-year other suban HBCU an HBCU colleges colleges baccalaureate

Distribution of All: 23.0 3.8 34.9 34.3 4.0

 (2.99) (1.20) (3.23) (3.83) (0.82)

Highest Degree

 None 44.6 (6.86) 72.2 (10.4) 36.0 (5.16) 93.7 (1.99) 37.0 (9.41)

 Certificate 5.1 (3.46) 0.0 ---- 1.7 (0.85) 3.2 (1.47) 60.5 (9.62)

 Associate’s 1.9 (0.88) 8.8 (7.38) 8.3 (2.76) 3.1 (1.22) 2.5 (2.53)

 Bachelor’s 39.3 (6.32) 16.7 (8.44) 42.0 (5.08) ^ ^ Post-baccalaureate 6.2 (2.56) 0.0 ----- 8.3 (2.05) ^ ^ Graduate 3.0 (1.24) 2.3 (2.40) 3.8 (1.12) ^ ^

 Bachelor’s or Above 48.5 (6.64) 19.0 (9.00) 54.0 (5.29) ^ ^

Of Bachelor’s

recipients, percent 

earning degree at: 

 HBCU 91.3 (4.06) 84.2 (13.0) . # ^ ^ Religious mission # #

 institution2 2.1 (0.94) ^ ^. Other special mission # #

 institution3 7.8 (5.70) ^ ^ Other 4-year 8.7 (4.06) 15.8 (13.0) 90.0 (5.66) ^ ^

Entered directly

from high school 93.9 (2.04) 57.6 (11.3) 83.7 (3.36) 61.0 (7.81) 49.3 (10.8)

Entered in same

state as high school 59.5 (7.51) 75.0 (11.2) 71.8 (5.46) 88.0 (5.62) 87.8 (6.53)

# Rounds to zero.

^ Not applicable. 1

"Dominated” means that 60 percent or more of all undergraduate credits earned by the student were earned at this type of institution.

2

 A “religious mission institution” is neither a specialized theological seminary (Carnegie Class 51) nor (necessarily) a denominationally affiliated institution (many of which have broad secular missions), rather it is a baccalaureate degree-granting college whose stated mission prominently includes religious education and is denominationally affiliated.

3

 Other special mission institutions include women’s colleges, Hispanic serving institutions (HSIs), and tribal

colleges.

NOTES: (1) The universe consists of all African-American 1992 12th graders who were postsecondary participants in the NELS:88/2000. Weighted N = 238k. (2) Columns for the five attendance patterns and for highest degree may

not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. (4) The category of “Post- baccalaureate” includes both post-baccalaureate coursework and incomplete graduate degrees. SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
53

• A slightly lower percentage of those who graduated from HBCUs continued to

post-baccalaureate and graduate programs (19.0 percent, s.e.=3.86) than those

who earned bachelor’s degrees from other 4-year colleges (22.4 percent, s.e.=

4.06). But again, this difference (not shown directly in table 4.5) is not

statistically significant.

• While not shown in table 4.5, among all African-American postsecondary

participants, those who first entered 4-year colleges (HBCUs or others) were

more likely to enter the postsecondary system directly from high school (91.2

percent; s.e. = 1.37) than those whose attendance was confined to 2-year colleges

and other sub-baccalaureate institutions (56.5 percent; s.e. = 6.95).

• African-American students who began their college careers at an HBCU were

more likely than other African-American college students to start higher

education in a state other than the one in which they attended high school, a fact

that testifies to the national stature of the HBCUs among African-Americans and

their concentration in the South Atlantic, Southeast Central, and Southwest

Central states.

Table 4.6 takes the full universe of Latino students and divides them by attendance pattern with

reference to enrollment in HSIs (48 percent of Latino students in the Class of 1992 attended an

HSI at some time, 64 percent of this group attended a 2-year HSI). Table 4.6 shows

• A 44 percent bachelor’s degree completion rate among Latino students of the

Class of 1992 who started at a 4-year HSI versus 58 percent completion rate for

those who began their postsecondary careers at a non-HSI 4-year institution. This

difference is not statistically significant.

• A combined certificate/associate’s degree attainment rate of 19 percent for those

who started out in a 2-year HSI and 14 percent for those who first entered other

non-HSI 2-year colleges. Given the role of 2-year institutions in Latino

postsecondary histories (these two groups account for half the Latino

postsecondary students in the Class of 1992), the combined certificate/associate’s

degree attainment rate is an important indicator for this population.

• In terms of timing of postsecondary entry, Latino students who started out in 4-

year colleges, whether HSIs or other, were more likely to do so directly following

high school graduation than those who attended 2-year and other sub-baccalaureate institutions of any kind. The attendance pattern described as “other type but

earned credits from an HSI” is difficult to analyze in this context because it

includes students who embarked on their postsecondary education in all types of

institutions—4-year, 2-year, and other sub-baccalaureate. 
54

Table 4.6. Percentage distribution of 1992 12th grade Latino students’ postsecondary

attendance patterns with reference to Hispanic Serving Institutions (HSIs):

1992-2000

Percent of Latino students who entered postsecondary education

 at other 

 type but 

at a at a earned

2-year 4-year credits at other at other at other

HSI HSI from an HSI 4-year 2-year sub-bacc

Distribution of 

all Latino 30.8 8.1 9.2 28.6 20.3 3.0

students (3.36) (1.47) (2.25) (3.44) (2.34) (1.25)

Highest degree

 None 73.9 (4.91) 50.2 (7.38) 69.7 (4.48) 33.7 (4.40) 86.4 (3.37) 68.2

(14.1)

 Certificate 9.8 (3.41) 3.5 (2.41) 2.8 (1.49) 0.2 (0.15) 3.5 (1.14) 31.8

(14.1)

 Associate’s 9.6 (4.30) 2.0 (1.13) 8.8 (3.91) 8.2 (2.25) 10.1 (3.04) #

 Bachelor’s 3.7 (1.09) 32.0 (7.01) 14.5 (4.53) 35.6 (4.16) # # 

 Post-baccalaureate 2.0 (0.98) 8.5 (3.58) 3.2 (1.68) 16.4 (4.70) # #

 Graduate 1.1 (0.77) 3.8 (1.80) 0.9 (0.72) 6.0 (1.28) # #

 Bachelor’s or above 6.8 (1.77) 44.3 (7.27) 18.7 (4.12) 57.9 (4.60) ^ ^

Of Bachelor’s

recipients, percent 47.7 (11.8) 98.5 (1.59) 22.3 (12.3) # ^ ^

earning degree

at an HSI

Entered directly

from high school 73.3 (4.90) 86.6 (3.84) 92.6 (3.57) 90.2 (2.85) 70.3 (6.06) 46.0

(20.2)

Heritage language

study in college 7.4 (2.15) 30.0 (7.07) 29.3 (8.96) 16.2 (2.52) 1.3 (0.69) #

# Rounds to zero.

^ Not applicable. NOTES: (1) The universe consists of all 1992 12th grade Latinos who became postsecondary participants. Weighted

N = 193k. (2) Columns for the six attendance patterns and highest degree may not sum to 100.0 percent due to

rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. (4) The category of “Post-Baccalaureate” includes postbaccalaureate coursework and incomplete graduate degrees.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
55

“Acceleration” and Its Effects

The last topic in this section on attendance patterns shifts the locus from place to time. It asks

whether —and to what extent—students’ use of credit-by-examination and postsecondary credits

earned by coursework prior to high school graduation accelerated their progress toward degrees

and, in fact, shortened time-to-degree. The data set from which the Class of 1992 is drawn

(NELS:88/2000) flagged both classes of credits, then combined them. Separately and together,

the academic effort represented in these credits is part of the general rubric of attendance patterns.

Credits earned by examination include not only credits granted for Advanced Placement test

scores but also credits earned through the College Level Examination Program (CLEP) and

institutional exams (the majority—in the Class of 1992 records—are in foreign languages). 

Table 4.7 sets forth the percentage of students who earned acceleration credits in three ranges,

and by three topics selected from precollegiate performance, initial entry, and ultimate attainment

by age 26 or 27. The data indicate, first, that students in the highest quintile of high school

academic coursework are more likely to earn credits by means other than post-matriculation

course enrollment. The data also show that

• While there is no difference between highly selective and selective institutions in 

the number of credits earned outside the customary channels, there are measurable

differences in the proportion of students earning acceleration credits between these

two ranks of selectivity and all others. Since Advanced Placement coursework and

test scores play a role in admission to highly selective and (most) selective

institutions, the results are not surprising.

• A higher proportion of students who ultimately earned graduate degrees also

earned acceleration credits than students who earned less than a graduate degree.

One out of four students who ultimately earned a graduate degree notched 9 or

more credits by examination or dual-enrollment, 10 times the proportion of

students who earned no degree.

• For those who earned at least a bachelor’s degree, the more credits earned by

examination and in dual-enrollment status, the shorter the time-to-degree. For

those with no acceleration credits, time-to-degree averaged 4.65 years elapsed

calendar years; for those who earned 9 or more acceleration credits, time-to-degree

averaged 4.25 years. 

Taken together, these observations suggest that a multivariate analysis of the determinants of

time-to-degree, such as that carried out on the state level by the Florida Postsecondary Education

Planning Commission (Goodman, Latham, Copa, and Wright 2001) would be a profitable

research inquiry (also see California Postsecondary Education Commission 1988; Texas Higher

Education Coordinating Board 1996). They also encourage research that would split out the dualenrollment portion of acceleration credits and determine whether the student was receiving both

high school and college credit simultaneously or accumulating college credits outside the high

school curriculum (Johnstone and del Genio 2001; Boswell 2001), and whether dual-enrollment

prepares students for postsecondary coursework (Windham and Perkins 2001).
56

Table 4.7. Percent of 1992 12th graders who earned acceleration credits (dualenrollment and credit-by-examination), by high school background,

institutional selectivity, and degree attainment; and the impact of acceleration

credits on time-to-degree for those who earned bachelor’s degrees

Number of acceleration credits

 0 1-8 9 or more 

All Students 81.4 (0.75) 12.0 (0.60) 6.6 (0.50)

By academic intensity of

H.S. curriculum quintile

Highest 60.8 (1.89) 22.1 (1.57) 17.1 (1.48)

2nd 80.2 (1.75) 12.0 (1.28) 7.8 (1.43) 3rd 87.0 (1.53) 10.7 (1.48) 2.3 (0.41) 4th 91.0 (1.24) 6.6 (1.03) 2.4 (0.73) Lowest 86.5 (1.76) 10.7 (1.66) 2.8 (0.79)

By selectivity of the

1st institution attended

Highly selective 49.1 (5.40) 21.2 (4.32) 29.7 (4.70)

Selective 58.0 (2.52) 22.8 (1.93) 19.2 (2.21)

Nonselective 83.3 (0.96) 11.4 (0.80) 5.3 (0.61)

Open door 87.3 (1.16) 9.7 (1.03) 3.0 (0.52)

Not ratable 93.9 (1.68) 3.3 (1.26) 2.8 (1.10)

By highest degree

None 90.4 (0.95) 7.7 (0.80) 2.0 (0.53)

Certificate 89.9 (3.74) 8.1 (3.75) 2.1 (0.64)

Associate’s 83.5 (2.58) 12.1 (2.33) 4.4 (1.39)

Bachelor’s 74.6 (1.40) 15.6 (1.13) 9.8 (1.03)

Post-baccalaureate 71.5 (2.12) 18.6 (1.83) 9.9 (1.18)

Graduate 54.0 (3.24) 18.8 (2.49) 27.2 (3.34)

Mean time-to-degree1

 for 4.65 yrs 4.40 yrs. 4.25 yrs.

bachelor’s recipients (0.033) (0.058) (0.081)

SD=1.09 SD=0.99 SD=1.08

1

Time-to-degree is measured in elapsed calendar years from the true first date of attendance.

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of all 1992 12th graders who became postsecondary participants. Weighted N =

2.09M; for bachelor’s degree recipients, Weighted N = 920k. (2) Rows may not sum to 100.0 percent due to

rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. (4) Dual-enrollment means that the student took courses at

postsecondary institutions while still enrolled in high school and received credit at both levels simultaneously. 

(5) Credit-by-examination is counted only when recognized on postsecondary transcripts.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
15 Change of major in the course of undergraduate education is another matter. For those in the Class of

1992 who earned bachelor’s degrees, 40.5 percent (s.e.=1.20) changed major, and another 9.5 percent (s.e.=0.71)

were either community college transfer students who earned an associate’s degree in general studies and a

bachelor’s degree in a specific field or students who earned no degree with no identifiable major at a school they

attended prior to the institution that awarded the bachelor’s degree in a discrete field. These data are not in the

tables, and are derived from both student responses to questions asked in the 2000 survey and transcript records.

16 For the Class of 1972, 355 6-digit codes drawn from the 1985 version of the Classification of

Instructional Programs (Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics) were used to code majors. 

Given the raw size of the cohort, many of the codes used yielded fewer than five cases, well below acceptable levels

for the reliable computation of standard errors of estimates. For the Class of 1982, a 3-digit coding scheme was

adopted with 111 codes. This scheme was carried over to the Class of 1992, where 18 new codes were added on the

basis of volume of degree majors listed on received transcripts. 

57

Part 5:

 Majors and Curriculum

The tables in this section of Principal Indicators set forth the following:

• changes in the distribution of majors15 for those in the grade-cohort longitudinal

studies who earned bachelor’s and associate’s degrees over the 28-year period

covered by the three longitudinal studies cohorts; 

• changes in the number of semester credits earned in selected curriculum clusters

between the Class of 1982 (1982-1993) and the Class of 1992 (1992-2000); and

• an illustration of the distribution of curriculum cluster credits within major, at both

the bachelor’s and associate’s degree levels, using the Class of 1992.

Taken together, these tables begin to reveal some ways of mapping the content of the delivered

curriculum. The companion to this volume, The Empirical Curriculum: Changes in

Postsecondary Course-Taking, 1972-2000, offers more detail on the topic.

Tables 5.1 and 5.2 display the proportion of bachelor’s degree recipients in three grade-cohorts

who earned their degrees in 12 broad curricular areas. The method of coding majors at a more

detailed level changed between the Class of 1972 and Class of 1982 cohort transcript files, but the

content of the aggregates remained constant.16 The taxonomy of major codes covers fields of

concentration at all levels of postsecondary education, from sub-baccalaureate vocational (e.g.,

cosmetology) to first-professional degrees in law and medicine. Bachelor’s degrees are not

awarded in all the fields covered by the coding system. In the history of the Class of 1982,

bachelor’s degrees were awarded in 96 fields, and in that of the Class of 1992, bachelor’s degrees

were awarded in 105 fields. 

The 12 codes used in tables 5.1 and 5.2 aggregate the following fields in which bachelor’s

degrees were awarded across the three cohorts. Not all fields are listed, rather an illustrative

sample. 
58

Figure 1. Major fields included in the 12 aggregate categories of major fields used in 

 Principal Indicators

Aggregate Category Sample of Major Fields

Business and Allied Agricultural Business/Management, Accounting, Finance,

Operations Research/Administrative Science, Business

Administration, Human Resources Management/Labor

Relations, Other Business (minor subfields)

Education Early Childhood, Elementary, Secondary, Special

Education, Physical Education, Other (minor subfields)

Engineering and Architecture, Electrical/Communications Engineering,

Architecture Chemical Engineering, Civil Engineering, Mechanical

Engineering, Computer Engineering, Other Engineering

(minor subfields), Engineering Technologies (all)

Physical Sciences Chemistry, Geology, Physics, Other (e.g., Astronomy)

Mathematics and Computer Mathematics/Statistics, Computer Science, Information

Science Technology

Life and Agricultural Agricultural/Animal/Plant Sciences, Biology (including all 

Sciences subfields), Biochemistry, Natural Resources/Conservation,

Environmental Studies/Sciences

Health Sciences and Clinical Health Sciences, Speech Pathology/Audiology,

Services Medical/Veterinary Laboratory Technology, Physical

Therapy, Occupational Therapy, Health/Physical

Education/Recreation, Nutrition/Dietetics, Nursing

Humanities English, Creative/Technical Writing, Foreign Languages,

Philosophy, Religious Studies

Arts Fine Arts/Art History, Music, Film Arts, Drama/Speech,

Graphic Communications, Interior Design

Social Sciences Anthropology/Archaeology, Psychology, Economics,

History, Political Science, International Relations,

Sociology, American Civilization, Area Studies, Ethnic

Studies, Women’s Studies
59

Figure 1. Major fields included in the 12 aggregate categories of major fields used in 

 Principal Indicators—Continued

Aggregate Category Sample of Major Fields

Applied Social Sciences Communications, Administration of Justice, Child, Family

& Community Studies, Social Work, Leisure Studies/

Recreation, Public Administration, Human/Community

Services

Other Communications Technologies, Air Transport, General

Studies, Theology, Bible Studies

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.

While other configurations could be constructed for these aggregates, the assignment of the major

field codes was driven by volume of majors, reviewed by panels of registrars and institutional

research officers in both 1995 and 2001 and judged to be reasonable representations.

For tables 5.1 and 5.2, the histories for all three cohorts are truncated at 8.5 years after high

school graduation (the postsecondary life span of the Class of 1992) to insure comparability in the

distribution of students by gender and race/ethnicity across the 12 aggregate major fields. The 

following general patterns in table 5.1 under the columns headed “All” can be observed:

• the proportion of all students earning bachelor’s degrees in business and allied

fields rose from the 1970s to the 1980s, then fell back in the 1990s;

• the categories of mathematics and computer science, dominated by computer

science and other computer-related fields, followed the same pattern as did

business;

• the proportion of all students earning bachelor’s degrees in education fell from the

1970s through the 1980s, but rose modestly in the 1990s; and

• a decline in the proportion of students earning degrees in the physical sciences

between the Class of 1972 and the Class of 1992.

Considering differences in these trends by gender, one can observe:

• a rise in the proportion of women majoring in the social sciences and life sciences

between the Class of 1972 and the Class of 1992; and

• a notable increase in the proportion of men earning degrees in health sciences and

services between the 1980s and 1990s.

Changes in the distribution of majors among bachelor’s degree recipients, by race/ethnicity,

displayed in table 5.2, include the following notable items:
60

• Among African-American students, the proportion receiving degrees in

Engineering in the Class of 1992 was six times the proportion in the Class of 1972. 

On the surface, the 12.6 percent figure appears to be higher than those for students

from all other race/ethnicity groups, but these differences are not statistically

significant.

• Among African-American students, the proportion earning bachelor’s degrees in

the physical sciences in the Class of 1992 appears to be triple that for the same

group in the Class of 1982, and appears greater than the proportions for all other

race/ethnicity groups, but none of these differences are statistically significant.

Since the sum of a distribution by major field for any group of degree recipients adds to 100.0

percent, significantly greater shares in areas such as engineering and physical sciences mean

lesser shares in other fields. For African-American college graduates over the 28 years of the

three cohort studies, this phenomenon (declining intra-group share) can be observed in the

humanities and education, and, between the 1980s and 1990s, in applied social sciences and

computer science/mathematics. Researchers should be encouraged by these data to investigate

the ways in which some fields have been successful in recruiting and retaining minority students,

and to examine the characteristics and histories of the African-American students in the Class of

1992 who completed degrees in engineering and the physical sciences against students from (1)

other race/ethnicity groups and (2) earlier cohorts of African-American bachelor’s degree

recipients.

Other trends worth noting in consideration of the change in the distribution of majors by

race/ethnicity include:

• the rebound between the 1980s and 1990s in the proportion of bachelor’s degree

recipients receiving degrees in education was led by White students; and

• between the 1980s and 1990s, a drop in the proportion of Asian-American students

earning bachelor’s degrees in engineering.

Table 5.3 digs below the surface of the 12 aggregate major categories, and, confining its analysis

to the Class of 1992, asks for the 20 majors (out of 129 discrete major codes) that accounted for

the highest proportion of bachelor’s degree recipients in that cohort. The basic distribution is set

forth in table 5.3, where the analytic rubrics are gender and selectivity of the institution awarding

the degree. 

The distribution by gender reveals that (1) the most “popular” major field, psychology, is

dominated by women, (2) among the various business fields, men and women come closest to

parity in accounting and marketing, and (3) historically gender-segmented fields (for example,

engineering, elementary education, nursing) remain gender-segmented . The distributions by

selectivity of the institution awarding the bachelor’s degree are more dramatic:

• Engineering majors account for nearly one out of four degrees awarded by highly

selective institutions, a far higher percentage (and statistically significant) than for

institutions of lesser selectivity.

• Evidently, very few highly selective institutions offer degrees in elementary

education, accounting, business administration, marketing, criminal justice,

nursing, and health/physical education/recreation.
61

Table 5.1. Distribution of majors of 12th graders in the high school classes of 1972, 1982, 

 and 1992 who earned the bachelor’s degree within 8.5 years of the modal 

 cohort high school graduation date, by gender 

 

All Men Women

1972 1982 1992 1972 1982 1992 1972 1982 1992

Business and 17.2 25.3 17.0 24.4 28.3 21.6 9.1 22.5 13.4

Allied Fields (0.63) (1.08) (0.86) (0.95) (1.55) (1.44) (0.69) (1.35) (1.04)

Education 16.3 6.4 8.7 8.1 2.1 3.7 25.4 10.4 12.5

(0.63) (0.58) (0.59) (0.61) (0.47) (0.51) (1.07) (0.95) (0.94)

Engineering and 6.0 9.0 7.9 10.5 16.9 13.9 0.8 1.9 3.4

Architecture (0.39) (0.69) (0.76) (0.68) (1.29) (1.44) (0.20) (0.42) (0.72)

Physical 3.0 2.4 1.6 4.3 3.9 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.2

sciences (0.30) (0.36) (0.31) (0.48) (0.67) (0.36) (0.31) (0.32) (0.47)

Mathematics and 1.8 6.2 3.9 2.2 7.3 5.2 1.3 5.1 3.0

Computer science (0.24) (0.61) (0.56) (0.38) (0.98) (0.73) (0.25) (0.72) (0.83)

Life and Agricultural 8.5 6.1 8.3 10.9 6.1 9.0 5.8 6.1 7.7

sciences (0.44) (0.58) (0.57) (0.69) (0.79) (0.91) (0.54) (0.80) (0.71)

Health sciences 7.4 6.3 7.6 2.8 1.8 4.7 12.6 10.4 9.8

and services (0.44) (0.55) (0.58) (0.36) (0.43) (0.73) (0.81) (0.99) (0.85)

Humanities 6.1 6.2 7.0 4.3 5.0 5.2 8.2 7.4 8.3

(0.39) (0.53) (0.74) (0.43) (0.71) (0.91) (0.66) (0.80) (1.02)

Arts 4.8 4.6 5.5 3.0 3.9 4.6 6.9 5.2 6.3

(0.35) (0.48) (0.56) (0.35) (0.63) (0.66) (0.62) (0.74) (0.84)

Social sciences 17.9 16.0 19.4 19.7 14.9 18.6 15.9 17.0 19.9

(0.65) (0.98) (1.01) (0.96) (1.32) (1.68) (0.82) (1.31) (1.33)

Applied social 8.9 10.4 11.1 7.2 8.1 9.3 10.8 12.4 12.5

sciences (0.47) (0.67) (0.76) (0.60) (0.93) (1.06) (0.74) (0.97) (1.06)

Other 2.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 1.7 1.0 1.7 0.5 2.0

(0.24) (0.22) (0.36) (0.38) (0.40) (0.38) (0.30) (0.19) (0.56)

Total: 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

NOTES: (1) Columns may not sum to 100.0 percent due to rounding. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

(3) Weighted Ns for Class of 1972 = 692k; Class of 1982 = 767k; Class of 1992 = 920k.

SOURCES: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, High School and Beyond/Sophomore

Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
62

Table 5.2. Distribution of majors of 12th graders in the high school classes of 1972, 1982,

and 1992 who earned the bachelor’s degree within 8.5 years of the modal

cohort high school graduation date, by race/ethnicity

White African-American Latino Asian

1972 1982 1992 1972 1982 1992 1972 1982 1992 1972 1982 1992

Business and 17.3 25.6 17.4 16.5 26.2 15.5 11.7 19.8 14.7 21.8 17.3 14.9

Allied Fields (0.68) (1.15) (0.99) (2.27) (4.23) (3.02) (3.85) (2.94) (3.02) (4.92) (3.64) (2.62)

Education 16.2 6.7 9.4 21.9 5.9 6.1 15.0 6.4 8.5 10.1 0.8 1.9

 (0.66) (0.63) (0.67) (2.21) (2.04) (1.68) (4.26) (1.94) (2.62) (3.56) (0.50) (0.69)

Engineering and 6.2 8.9 7.4 1.7 6.1 12.6 4.4 10.7 7.5 10.1 20.2 10.8

Architecture (0.41) (0.76) (0.77) (0.60) (1.92) (5.18) (1.97) (2.55) (2.47) (3.07) (3.25) (2.26)

Physical 3.0 2.4 1.1 1.9 1.3 6.6 1.4 1.2 1.6 3.1 1.4 2.3

sciences (0.31) (0.39) (0.18) (0.73) (1.01) (3.36) (1.37) (0.75) (1.27) (1.82) (0.98) (0.84)

Mathematics 1.7 6.2 3.7 1.8 7.2 4.0 # 5.7 7.0 9.0 6.9 4.7

and Computer (0.25) (0.67) (0.62) (0.68) (2.16) (1.26) # (1.97) (4.21) (3.43) (1.84)(1.15)

science

Life and Agri- 8.7 5.7 7.9 5.9 6.9 4.7 8.1 5.4 7.8 10.6 19.7 18.4

cultural sci (0.48) (0.63) (0.58) (1.48) (2.22) (1.45) (2.83) (2.36) (1.78) (3.20) (4.46) (4.23)

Health sciences 7.5 6.5 7.7 6.9 6.0 7.3 8.6 3.9 3.8 7.0 3.1 7.7

and services (0.47) (0.60) (0.58) (1.31) (2.32) (3.63) (4.73) (1.51) (1.29) (2.17) (1.40) (2.15)

Humanities 6.3 6.7 7.8 6.3 2.0 2.3 8.1 4.7 6.0 3.3 3.8 2.6

 (0.41) (0.59) (0.59) (1.52) (0.90) (0.88) (2.78) (1.52) (1.08) (2.28) (1.57) (0.67)

Arts 5.0 4.6 5.2 3.0 3.5 9.5 5.4 5.4 4.3 3.7 3.3 6.4

 (0.37) (0.52) (0.44) (0.96) (1.40) (4.76) (2.68) (2.53) (2.38) (1.65) (1.61) (1.83) 

Social sciences 17.3 15.8 19.4 23.9 17.1 19.4 21.3 17.3 17.4 17.0 17.1 20.8

 (0.70) (1.06) (1.08) (2.40) (3.13) (5.42) (4.45) (3.95) (2.71) (4.20) (3.32) (3.81)

Applied social 8.8 10.0 11.1 9.5 15.3 11.9 14.9 16.2 12.2 3.7 6.3 9.3

sciences (0.49) (0.70) (0.79) (1.69) (3.30) (3.89) (4.15) (5.40) (2.33) (1.85) (1.73) (3.91)

Other 2.3 1.0 1.8 0.6 2.3 0.1 1.1 3.4 9.8 0.6 0.2 0.2

 (0.27) (0.22) (0.38) (0.36) (1.23) (0.06) (1.11) (2.27) (4.95) (0.61) (0.17) (0.14) 

 

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 

# Rounds to zero. NOTES: (1) Columns may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. (3)

Weighted Ns for Class of 1972 = 692k; Class of 1982 = 767k; Class of 1992 = 920k.

SOURCES: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972; High School and Beyond/Sophomore

Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
63

Table 5.3. Percent of 1992 12th graders who received bachelor’s degrees in the 20 fields with the highest proportion of majors, by gender and selectivity of institution

awarding the bachelor’s degree

By selectivity of institution awarding By gender the bachelor’s degree

Highly All Men Women selective Selective Nonselective

Psychology 7.6 4.9 9.7 9.1 (2.48) 7.0 (1.01) 7.9 (0.90) (0.67) (0.78) (0.98)

Engineering (All) 6.1 11.2 2.2 24.1 (5.72) 9.6 (1.48) 2.7 (0.33) (0.65) (1.38) (0.50)

Elementary Education 5.4 1.9 8.1 # 2.1 (0.39) 7.3 (0.68) (0.48) (0.37) (0.78)

Biology 5.6 5.2 5.9 9.8 (3.23) 5.7 (0.82) 5.2 (0.47) (0.43) (0.58) (0.66)

Accounting 5.0 5.1 5.0 # 6.6 (1.72) 5.0 (0.60) (0.60) (1.07) (0.70)

Business Administration 4.5 6.4 3.1 0.6 (0.45) 2.5 (1.03) 5.8 (0.64) (0.50) (1.00) (0.41)

Communications 3.9 3.3 4.5 1.1 (0.58) 2.9 (0.75) 4.7 (0.72) (0.52) (0.73) (0.73)

English 3.8 3.3 4.1 5.7 (2.04) 2.7 (0.53) 4.1 (0.59) (0.44) (0.79) (0.49)

Marketing 2.6 2.8 2.5 0.4 (0.42) 2.7 (1.07) 2.9 (0.37) (0.37) (0.49) (0.53)

Sociology 2.3 1.7 2.8 1.0 (0.46) 1.3 (0.38) 3.0 (0.70) (0.48) (0.64) (0.68)

Political Science 2.3 2.5 2.1 3.2 (1.23) 3.7 (0.70) 1.6 (0.28) (0.29) (0.44) (0.38)

Computer and informa- 2.5 3.3 1.9 1.5 (0.74) 1.5 (0.38) 3.1 (0.73)

tion sciences (0.49) (0.46) (0.79)

Criminal Justice 2.2 3.1 1.5 # 0.4 (0.18) 3.1 (0.50) (0.34) (0.68) (0.30)

Finance 2.1 3.3 1.1 1.9 (1.00) 1.6 (0.46) 2.3 (0.32) (0.26) (0.50) (0.23)

History 2.0 2.8 1.3 3.3 (1.16) 3.1 (1.04) 1.4 (0.23) (0.31) (0.65) (0.26)

Nursing 1.8 0.7 2.6 0.2 (0.16) 0.7 (0.25) 2.2 (0.36) (0.26) (0.33) (0.37)

Economics 1.8 3.0 0.8 7.0 (3.12) 2.9 (0.58) 0.7 (0.22) (0.31) (0.67) (0.19) 

Fine Arts 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.5 (0.87) 1.0 (0.30) 1.8 (0.29)

 (0.23) (0.31) (0.33)

Health/Physical Education/ 1.6 2.3 1.1 0.1 (0.09) 1.3 (0.43) 1.9 (0.36) Recreation (HPER) (0.26) (0.53) (0.24)

Mathematics/Statistics 1.4 1.9 1.0 1.1 (0.64) 2.0 (0.90) 1.2 (0.25) (0.29) (0.59) (0.25)

Other majors 33.8 29.8 36.7 28.3 (5.82) 38.6 (2.60) 32.0 (1.23) (1.10) (1.51) (1.59)

Percent of all 43.6 56.4 6.9 (0.76) 25.4 (1.20) 66.6 (1.39)

in column category (1.13) (1.13)

# Rounds to zero.

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of all bachelor’s degree recipients (Weighted N = 920k). (2) 1.1 percent of the institutions

awarding bachelor’s degrees are not rated for selectivity. (3) Communications does not include journalism or Radio/TV/Film,

both of which are separate categories of major. (4) Columns may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (5) Standard

errors are in parentheses. SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
64

The bachelor’s degree is not the only undergraduate degree awarded in U.S. higher education. 

Over one-half million associate’s degrees have been awarded every year since 1991 (Snyder

2002, table 252, p. 298). If the data for the Class of 1992 are an accurate reflection, 79 percent of

these associate’s degrees were awarded by community colleges (not in tables). For the Class of

1982, the proportion of associate’s degrees awarded by community colleges was roughly the same

at 83 percent.

Table 5.4 isolates only those associate’s degrees awarded by community colleges to students in

the three longitudinal studies, allows the studies to run their course (as opposed to truncating

them at a common point, as was the case in the presentation of bachelor’s degree majors) in order

to account for those who earn associate’s degrees after the bachelor’s, and uses nine aggregates of

major fields to plot change in the content of the community college associate’s degree over time. 

Given the fact that the ratio of associate’s degrees awarded by community colleges to total

bachelor’s degrees awarded is less than .5 (Snyder 2002, tables 265 and 268), gender is the only

demographic independent variable that is likely to produce statistically defensible analyses. 

In table 5.4, the story of business and allied majors that was told in the case of bachelor’s degrees

is repeated at the associate’s level: between the 1970s and 1980s, the proportion of all degrees

awarded rose, then dropped in the 1990s—and this trend held for both men and women. Second, 

continued gender-segmentation across all three cohorts is observable in business support

occupations, engineering/technical occupations programs, and health sciences & services.

But the most significant change—and it occurs between the 1980s and 1990s—is an increase of

over 40 percent in the proportion of community college awarded associate’s degrees in General

Studies. This degree is the classic A.A. transfer degree, and the proportion of these degrees in the

comparatively short (8.5 year) history of the NELS:88/2000 indicates the potential for a long-term

transfer rate higher than the 26 percent reported in table 4.4. And in one of the few stories of its

type in these histories, both men and women show similar increases in this key momentum

indicator. 

The category of “Other” in table 5.4 accounts for one out of five associate’s degrees awarded to

men in the Class of 1992. Associate’s degrees in Criminal Justice constituted nearly half of the

degrees in this category (followed, in percentages, by paralegal and culinary arts programs). At

the associate’s degree level, Criminal Justice is a police academy degree, perhaps explaining

some of the gender distribution.
65

Table 5.4. Distribution of associate’s degree majors of 12th graders in 1972 (through

1984), 1982 (through1993), and 1992 (through 2000) who earned associate’s

degrees from community colleges

All Men Women

1972 1982 1992 1972 1982 1992 1972 1982 1992

Business and

allied fields 12.1 20.0 8.2 14.4 21.3 7.5 9.7 19.2 8.8

(1.07) (1.80) (1.14) (1.64) (2.93) (1.78) (1.28) (2.18) (1.53)

Business

support 6.2 9.2 8.2 1.0 0.9 1.5 11.3 14.8 13.3

(0.71) (1.26) (2.28) (0.39) (0.62) (0.92) (1.34) (2.01) (3.74)

Computer

related 2.3 4.4 1.9 3.5 5.5 2.4 1.1 3.7 1.5

(0.45) (0.96) (0.48) (0.79) (1.46) (0.82) (0.43) (1.28) (0.56)

Engineering

and other 7.1 7.7 7.1 13.1 16.2 13.3 1.0 1.9 2.3

technology (0.76) (1.36) (1.77) (1.41) (2.94) (3.70) (0.39) (0.76) (1.01)

Health sciences

and services 13.2 10.8 10.7 3.2 3.2 2.0 23.1 15.9 17.3

(1.05) (1.42) (1.39) (0.77) (1.08) (0.69) (1.85) (2.21) (2.32)

Science and

mathematics 2.1 4.4 3.1 3.0 6.5 4.8 1.2 3.0 1.9

(0.43) (0.77) (0.67) (0.74) (1.63) (1.38) (0.46) (0.82) (0.59)

Arts/applied

arts 3.8 4.4 2.9 3.4 4.5 3.3 4.3 4.3 2.7

(0.55) (0.87) (0.64) (0.77) (1.37) (1.08) (0.79) (1.11) (0.73)

General

studies 39.4 29.8 42.5 41.5 31.3 44.1 37.3 28.7 41.4

(1.68) (1.99) (2.98) (2.26) (3.20) (4.50) (2.06) (2.59) (3.60)

Other 13.9 9.4 15.3 16.8 10.4 21.1 11.0 8.6 10.9

(1.15) (1.42) (2.15) (1.66) (2.21) (3.90) (1.49) (1.85) (2.23)

NOTES: (1) Columns may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. (3)

Weighted Ns: Class of 1972 = 195k; Class of 1982 = 232k; Class of 1992 = 206k.

SOURCES: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972; High School and Beyond/Sophomore

Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
66

Moving Into Curriculum

There are many ways to represent the curricular content of students’ postsecondary experiences. 

The companion document to this presentation (forthcoming), The Empirical Curriculum, provides

detail across 1,178 course categories and 109 aggregate groupings, and by gender, race/ethnicity,

and features of students’ attendance.

For Principal Indicators, nine curriculum clusters that are common to both the High School &

Beyond/ Sophomore cohort (Class of 1982) and the NELS:88/2000 (Class of 1992) are selected to

illustrate how material such as this can be used by local academic administrators to determine

whether institutional goals for students’ basic exposure and depth of study might be measured

using unobtrusive transcript data.

In the files for both longitudinal studies (and for the NLS-72, as well), variables were created for

many curriculum clusters, but the definitions for a few of them were altered slightly based on the

nature of student records and thus are not wholly comparable. For example, all three data sets

contain three clusters for foreign languages:

FLANCRD1 All credits in introductory and intermediate level foreign language courses

FLANCRD2 All credits in advanced foreign language courses, including literature

FLANCRD3 All credits in all foreign language courses

Only FLANCRD3 is truly comparable across all three cohort studies.

For another type of example, the external faculty review panel for the NELS:88/2000 that covered

engineering, engineering technologies, and computer science recommended moving all computer

applications courses either into the disciplines in which they were offered in applied contexts (for

example, agriculture, graphics and design) or into a new “chapter” of the taxonomy, with new

codes. Many of these courses had previously been coded under computer science. While the

course cluster for all “computer-related” credits remained the same, that for computer science,

narrowly construed, changed significantly, and one cannot compare credit production in these

categories with those of previous longitudinal studies.

Table 5.5 compares credit production in nine curriculum clusters across two cohorts, the Class of

1982 and the Class of 1992, and for two groups of students:

• All students who earned at least 1 year’s worth of semester-equivalent credits (that

is, more than 30), and

• All bachelor’s degree recipients.

The threshold for the first group was set at more than 30 so that the resulting universe of credits

(and the students who earned them) is substantial enough to yield informative analysis. The

clusters are not mutually exclusive. For example, some foreign languages are included in the

cluster for non-Western cultures and societies as well as in the cluster for all foreign languages.
67

Table 5.5. Credits earned in selected postsecondary curriculum clusters by 1982 and 1992

 12th graders who earned at least 30 undergraduate credits

High School Class of 1982 High School Class of 1992

1982-1993 1992-2000

Students Students

All students who earned All students who earned

who earned bachelor’s who earned bachelor’s

>30 credits degree >30 credits degree

Credits earned in:

“Level 1" core 

laboratory science1

None 47.6 (0.88) 34.2 (1.09) 42.8 (1.01) 31.6 (1.14)

1-4 20.6 (0.71) 22.2 (1.00) 21.5 (0.78) 23.5 (1.03)

5-8 14.7 (0.62) 17.2 (0.90) 14.9 (0.79) 17.1 (1.05)

9-12 4.9 (0.37) 7.0 (0.61) 6.0 (0.38) 6.8 (0.53)

More than 12 12.2 (0.58) 19.3 (0.96) 14.9 (0.61) 21.0 (0.91)

All foreign languages

None 68.9 (0.91) 56.1 (1.27) 61.3 (0.96) 49.9 (1.23)

1-6 14.0 (0.60) 17.5 (0.86) 16.7 (0.65) 18.8 (1.80)

7-12 10.2 (0.53) 14.9 (0.81) 13.4 (0.65) 18.0 (0.94)

13-19 4.2 (0.39) 7.0 (0.68) 5.1 (0.41) 7.9 (0.65)

More than 19 2.7 (0.30) 4.6 (0.53) 3.4 (0.36) 5.4 (0.60)

Calculus and advanced math2

None 73.6 (0.77) 58.5 (1.13) 73.2 (0.83) 61.2 (1.15)

1-4 11.3 (0.57) 16.6 (0.89) 12.9 (0.56) 18.5 (0.84)

5-9 7.4 (0.44) 11.9 (0.75) 6.2 (0.39) 8.9 (0.60)

More than 9 7.7 (0.44) 13.0 (0.76) 7.7 (0.53) 11.4 (0.82)

See notes at end of table.
68

Table 5.5. Credits earned in selected postsecondary curriculum clusters by 1982 and 1992 

 12th graders who earned at least 30 undergraduate credits–Continued

High School Class of 1982 High School Class of 1992

1982-1993 1992-2000

Students Students

All students who earned All students who earned

who earned bachelor’s who earned bachelor’s

>30 credits degrees >30 credits degrees

Credits earned in:

Non-Western cultures

and societies3

None 88.1 (0.60) 81.9 (0.90) 81.2 (0.74) 73.2 (1.09)

1-4 8.7 (0.52) 12.8 (0.81) 12.2 (0.65) 17.1 (0.98)

More than 4 3.1 (0.40) 5.2 (0.53) 6.6 (0.51) 9.7 (0.89)

All statistics4

None 63.9 (0.86) 45.2 (1.18) 60.2 (0.96) 43.9 (1.23)

1-4 25.1 (0.78) 36.5 (1.15) 30.6 (0.90) 42.1 (1.19)

More than 4 11.0 (0.74) 18.3 (1.28) 9.2 (0.68) 14.0 (0.95)

Fine and performing arts

None 54.6 (0.96) 42.1 (1.16) 45.9 (0.95) 35.1 (1.11)

1-4 23.4 (0.76) 27.9 (1.04) 28.9 (0.86) 32.1 (1.09)

5-9 11.8 (0.61) 16.5 (0.89) 13.8 (0.60) 18.4 (0.88)

10-15 4.1 (0.36) 5.2 (0.55) 3.9 (0.33) 4.7 (0.95)

More than 15 6.0 (0.43) 8.4 (0.64) 7.6 (0.48) 9.5 (0.74)

See notes at end of table.
69

Table 5.5. Credits earned in selected postsecondary curriculum clusters by 1982 and 1992 

 12th graders who earned at least 30 undergraduate credits—Continued

High School Class of 1982 High School Class of 1992

1982-1993 1992-2000

Students Students

All students who earned All students who earned

who earned bachelor’s who earned bachelor’s

>30 credits degrees >30 credits degrees

Credits earned in:

History

None 34.2 (0.93) 17.7 (0.92) 27.2 (0.81) 14.0 (0.73)

1-4 23.7 (0.76) 25.0 (0.95) 24.8 (0.88) 25.6 (1.14)

5-9 29.3 (0.82) 37.3 (1.20) 32.9 (0.87) 38.6 (1.17)

More than 9 12.9 (0.72) 19.9 (1.09) 15.0 (0.63) 21.8 (0.96)

Computer related5

None 42.5 (0.95) 33.6 (1.15) 38.2 (0.92) 36.0 (1.10)

1-4 31.0 (0.83) 35.1 (1.09) 37.0 (0.89) 40.0 (1.11)

5-9 14.6 (0.63) 17.7 (0.86) 15.5 (0.65) 15.8 (0.86)

More than 9 12.0 (0.62) 13.6 (0.80) 9.3 (0.56) 8.2 (0.67)

Writing beyond freshman

composition6

None 75.5 (0.86) 67.5 (1.16) 72.6 (0.83) 65.2 (1.10)

1-4 18.9 (0.77) 24.0 (1.05) 20.6 (0.78) 25.3 (1.02)

More than 4 5.6 (0.41) 8.5 (0.64) 6.8 (0.40) 9.6 (0.58)

1

 “Level 1" Core Laboratory Science includes general chemistry (and, if in a sequence, analytic chemistry), general

biology (or introductory zoology and introductory botany), general physics, and general physics with calculus. 2

 Calculus, linear algebra, differential equations, abstract algebra, topology, matrix theory, etc., and advanced

statistics (e.g., stochastic models, path analysis).

3

The cluster includes course codes for Area Studies (African, Asian, East Asian, Latin American, Middle Eastern,

Pacific, South Asian, Southeast Asian, Carribean), Islamic Studies, Non-Western Philosophy/Religions/Literature-inTranslation/Art/Music, all Non-Western languages, African/Asian/Latin American/Middle Eastern history, Third

World Economics, Third World Cultures (Anthropology), Geography of Africa/Asia/Pacific/Latin

America/Carribean, and Non-Western Governments and Politics.

4 In addition to statistics taught under mathematics, the cluster includes course category codes for business statistics,

economic statistics, biostatistics, education statistics, engineering statistics, and general social science statistics. 5

In addition to all computer science codes, the cluster includes computer applications courses, basic computer

operations training, computer engineering, computer engineering technology, computer repair, data processing, and

business information system courses.

6

Includes creative writing, technical writing, journalism, and writing for the media.

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of all 12th graders who subsequently entered postsecondary education and whose

postsecondary records were complete.. Weighted Ns for the four universes used in these tables are:

HS&B/Sophomore Cohort: more than 30 Credits = 1.553M; Bachelor’s = 874k. NELS:88/2000: more than 30

Credits = 1.620M; Bachelor’s = 937k. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCES: High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary

Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
70

Observations on some of the comparisons evident in table 5.5, and the questions they raise

• Foreign Languages. A modest increase in the overall participation rate of all

students who earned more than 30 credits (from 31 to 39 percent), and among

bachelor’s degree recipients (from 44 to 50 percent). Credits earned in foreign

languages, though, are not necessarily a proxy for fluency. 

• Writing Beyond Freshman Composition. A slight increase in the proportion of

students earning more than 30 credits who complete discrete courses in writing

that require freshman composition (or a waiver by examination) as a prerequisite.

This datum might be investigated as part of a potential indicator of written

communication skills.

• Non-Western Cultures and Societies. A modest increase in the overall

participation rate of both students who earned more than 30 credits (from 12 to 18

percent) and bachelor’s degree recipients (from 19 to 27 percent)in a cluster that

can serve as one indicator of the degree to which students are being exposed to

global perspectives.

• “Level 1" Core Laboratory Science. Negligible change in the distribution of

credits earned between the 1980s and 1990s cohorts. 

• Calculus and Advanced Math. No meaningful change in the distribution of

credits across the two cohorts.

The last two observations acquire greater meaning in the context of students’ secondary school

records. For example, assume that one objective of an institution of higher education is to ensure

that as many of its students as possible reach at least the level of precalculus in mathematics. The

measurement of that goal would take high school mathematics course-taking into account. If

more students reached the goal prior to college entry, then one may be less concerned if there

were no change in the credit distribution at the college level. Table 5.6 demonstrates that, in fact,

this is the case for the Class of 1992, where the distribution of bachelor’s degree recipients’

highest level of mathematics in high school shows a notable increase from the previous cohort

(Class of 1982) at the levels of precalculus and calculus, and little change in the proportions of

students earning credits in calculus at the college level. The message of these apparently

discordant indicators warrants further investigation in terms of the potential for increasing the

proportion of students who major in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM)

fields.

The curricular pathways from secondary school into and through postsecondary education are

both complex and conditioned by factors that have not been brought into play here. Researchers

are invited to advance more sophisticated analyses than this surface description can provide.
71

Table 5.6. Distribution of postsecondary credits in calculus and advanced mathematics

earned by bachelor’s degree recipients among 1982 and 1992 12th graders, by

highest level of mathematics studied in high school

 High School Class of 1982 High School Class of 1992

 (1982-1993) (1992-2000) Highest high

 school math

College credits in calculus College credits in calculus of bachelor’s

advanced mathematics advanced mathematics recipients,

H.S. Class of

None 1-4 5-9 >9 None 1-4 5-9 >9 1982 1992

Highest math in

High School

 Calculus 25.7 20.4 20.4 33.6 29.7 26.8 15.1 28.3 14.6 22.7

(2.65) (2.45) (2.46) (2.86) (2.05) (2.39) (1.66) (2.12) (1.05) (1.06)

 Precalculus 44.6 14.3 20.3 20.9 53.9 22.1 10.6 13.4 11.9 23.6

(3.36) (2.56) (3.09) (2.74) (2.80) (2.04) (1.51) (2.63) (0.93) (1.40)

 Trigonometry 50.3 19.7 17.4 12.7 66.5 18.9 7.0 7.6 19.2 17.6

(2.80) (2.09) (1.91) (1.83) (2.69) (2.22) (1.27) (1.71) (1.17) (1.17)

 Algebra 2 67.1 16.3 7.9 8.7 76.8 14.9 5.3 3.0 33.2 28.0

(2.23) (1.76) (1.12) (1.27) (2.13) (1.69) (1.29) (1.11) (1.41) (1.22)

 Geometry 78.3 14.7 4.5 2.5 88.0 7.8 2.9 1.3 13.1 6.0

(3.02) (2.67) (1.29) (1.03) (2.73) (2.23) (1.24) (0.82) (0.88) (0.68)

 Algebra 1 and 88.8 8.4 2.5 0.4 87.3 6.6 4.8 1.4 8.1 2.2

 pre-algebra (2.86) (2.45) (1.46) (0.22) (4.24) (3.01) (2.53) (1.37) (0.70) (0.40)

NOTES: (1) Columns for highest high school mathematics may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (2)

Rows for each cohort’s distribution of calculus credits may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (3)

Standard errors are in parentheses. (4) Only students for whom highest math in high school can be determined are

included; only students with complete postsecondary records are included. (5) Weighted N for the Class of 1982

bachelor’s degree sample = 814k; Weighted N for the Class of 1992 bachelor’s degree sample = 793k.

SOURCES: High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript

Files, NCES 2003-402.
72

The Content of Degrees, Bachelor’s and Associate’s, by Major

The next set of tables asks the question, “To what extent do people who earn degrees in one field

complete coursework outside that field that nonetheless might be important to both their further

education and to the positions they might assume in the work force?” To illustrate some potential

indicators of these dimensions of knowledge at the level of the bachelor’s degree, two curriculum

credit clusters from the files of the Class of 1992 were selected:

• Upper-level coursework in the sciences—i.e., courses that require the prior

completion of introductory sequences. Examples include Biochemistry, Plant

Morphology, Histology, Genetics, Ethology, Biotechnology, Organic Chemistry,

Physical Chemistry, Geophysics, Paleontology, Mineralogy, Modern Physics,

Electricity & Magnetism (Intermediate Course), and Physiological Psychology. 

Biology service courses (e.g., Anatomy and Physiology, Organic Biochemistry)

and other science service courses are not included.

• Ethics—includes the core ethics course taught in philosophy, plus courses in

environmental ethics, religious ethics, and bioethics.

All the courses cited above carry distinct codes in the taxonomy used to code the 370,000 cases in

the NELS:88/2000. Table 5.7 presents credits earned in these clusters in bands. For an

alternative presentation of this issue, using mean credits earned by major, and invoking

international studies and foreign languages, see Adelman, Daniel, and Berkovits (2003), table 12.

The upper-level science credits distribution in table 5.7 presents some data one might expect: for

example, the high percentage of majors in Health Sciences/Services who earned more than four

credits in upper-level science. The low percentage of business majors who earned credits in

upper-level science courses should also be noted in light of the increasing scientific and technical

content of economic life.

The debate as to whether ethics can be taught is as old as the ancient Greek philosophers. Table

5.7 indicates that, depending on major (and exclusive of humanities majors, which include

philosophy majors), between 15 and 30 percent of bachelor’s degree recipients complete some

formal education in ethical issues and analysis. Analysts might wish to explore variances in the

type of institutions in which course-taking in ethics is most common. 
73

Table 5.7. Credits earned by bachelor’s degree recipients among 1992 12th graders, in

selected curriculum clusters outside the student’s major

Credits in upper-level science courses1 earned by bachelor’s degree recipients in 

majors other than life sciences and physical sciences

Number of credits earned

None 1-4 More than 4

Major

Business 77.1 (2.02) 17.0 (1.77) 5.8 (1.11)

Education 67.7 (3.45) 19.6 (2.53) 12.7 (2.42)

Engineering 53.1 (4.49) 22.0 (4.66) 24.9 (3.59)

Math and computer science 69.5 (8.62) 12.5 (3.20) 18.0 (9.47)

Health sciences/services 18.1 (2.57) 19.4 (2.83) 62.5 (3.52)

Humanities 62.1 (5.53) 25.4 (5.92) 12.4 (2.33)

Arts 69.3 (4.55) 20.4 (3.98) 10.2 (2.60)

Social sciences 47.9 (2.51) 31.2 (2.56) 20.9 (1.92)

Applied social sciences 66.7 (2.90) 25.2 (2.70) 8.1 (1.55)

Credits in ethics2

 earned by bachelor’s degree recipients, all majors

Number of credits earned

None 1-4 More than 4

Major

Business 70.9 (2.49) 20.1 (2.36) 9.0 (1.44)

Education 82.0 (2.69) 12.7 (2.23) 5.3 (1.58)

Engineering 77.3 (4.51) 13.5 (2.61) 9.2 (4.32)

Physical sciences 73.7 (6.70) 15.8 (4.99) 10.5 (4.51)

Math and computer science 83.3 (3.65) 10.6 (2.71) 6.1 (2.26)

Life science 78.0 (2.41) 13.6 (1.93) 8.4 (1.59)

Health science/services 70.0 (3.50) 23.2 (3.30) 6.8 (1.49)

Humanities 68.4 (4.22) 16.1 (3.00) 15.5 (3.65)

Arts 84.2 (3.34) 12.8 (3.11) 3.0 (1.05)

Social sciences 72.1 (2.26) 19.6 (1.93) 8.3 (1.39)

Applied social science 73.1 (2.65) 22.0 (2.64) 4.9 (1.08)

Other 76.5 (5.75) 18.3 (5.11) 5.2 (2.56)

1

All courses in biology, chemistry, physics, and geology for which the introductory course in the field is a

prerequisite. Examples include biochemistry, bacteriology, field natural history, ornithology, organic chemistry,

physical chemistry, geochemistry, mineralogy, quantum physics.

2

Ethics courses taught under philosophy and religious studies, environmental ethics, and bioethics.

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of all 1992 12th graders who earned bachelor’s degrees by December 2000 and

whose postsecondary records were complete. Weighted N = 937k. (2) Rows may not add to 100.0 percent because of

rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. (4) For distribution of bachelor’s degree majors, see table 5.1. 

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
74

Associate’s degrees awarded by community colleges include both the general transfer oriented

A.A./A.S. and the occupationally oriented A.A.S. (the NELS:88/2000 files also include such

degree titles as Associate in Business, Associate of Applied Business, Associate of Engineering

Technology, and others). The connection between specific majors and the particular type of

associate’s degree awarded is sometimes a matter of local decision. Thus, for example, the

NELS:88/2000 transcript files show business administration and paralegal preparation under both

the A.S. and A.A.S. degrees. 

Given this range of practice, table 5.8 takes an empirical approach without concern for the precise

label of the degree, asking what proportion of those in the High School Class of 1992 who earned

associate’s degrees from community colleges accumulated credits in two curricular areas that

might be used in assessing the quality of degree content. 

• “Level 1" Core Laboratory Sciences—the basic introductory sequences in

biology (including the zoology/botany sequence, when used), chemistry, and

physics.

• Introductory College Level Mathematics—a broad curriculum cluster that

includes finite mathematics, statistics, college algebra, precalculus, and technical

mathematics that is grounded in these college-level topics. Students who complete

credits at this level of mathematics have indicated that they are truly beyond the

levels that would be classified as precollegiate/remedial.

These areas are selected for illustrative purposes, and analysts are invited to use others, for

example, computer-related credits or all foreign language credits in determining the content of

associate’s degrees for students in different majors. 

The standard errors for table 5.8 are large, and comparisons of the estimates will yield very few

that are statistically significant. But it is worth focusing on the column indicating no credits

(“None”), and judging the inverse of the estimates in that column. For example, the potential for

transfer from the community college to a 4-year college, regardless of whether one earns an

A.A./A.S. or A.A.S. degree, is enhanced by a transcript showing credits in college-level

mathematics (Adelman 1994). The reader of table 5.8 will note that community college

associate’s degree majors in business, engineering technology, and general studies fields all

evidence a very positive credit distribution for college-level mathematics. In core level 1

laboratory science, one notices the same type of distribution for majors in engineering

technology, health occupations, and general studies. These observations may assist researchers

and administrators in generating hypotheses as to the most profitable curricular paths to transfer,

and to test the curricular paths for those students who earned associate’s degrees against those

who may have earned more than 30 credits from community colleges but no degree.
75

Table 5.8. Credits earned in selected curriculum clusters by 1992 12th graders who were

awarded associate’s degrees by community colleges, 1992-2000, by associate’s

degree major

 Number of credits earned 

None 1-4 5-9 More than 9

 Credits in core level 1 laboratory science

Associate’s Major

Business 53.7 (7.17) 26.7 (7.08) 13.1 (4.31) 6.5 (3.25) 

Business support 67.6 (15.1) 11.7 (5.32) 20.7 (16.4) #

Computer-related 78.4 (9.21) 10.8 (6.22) 10.8 (7.44) # 

Engineering technology 30.9 (7.69) 16.7 (6.33) 29.0 (10.7) 23.5 (7.11) 

Health occupations 31.6 (5.69) 21.3 (5.75) 19.7 (4.64) 27.4 (6.60)

Science/mathematics 3.1 (2.91) 21.9 (10.7) 2.7 (1.96) 72.3 (10.3)

Arts and applied arts 47.5 (8.94) 19.9 (8.25) 23.8 (7.68) 8.8 (6.02) 

General studies 27.5 (3.19) 30.7 (3.24) 24.0 (3.02) 17.8 (3.05)

Education/human services 40.7 (11.4) 30.2 (11.4) 23.6 (13.3) 5.5 (4.32)

Protective services 53.1 (10.1) 38.0 (9.28) 7.7 (3.37) 2.0 (1.98)

Trades/precision production 85.6 (10.6) # 12.2 (10.4) 2.2 (2.26)

 Credits in introductory college-level mathematics

Associate’s Major

Business 22.2 (5.14) 21.6 (5.78) 40.3 (6.78) 16.0 (6.75)

Business support 50.1 (13.7) 27.3 (11.6) 2.6 (1.92) 20.1 (16.5)

Computer-related 21.5 (9.85) 54.8 (11.8) 18.9 (8.51) 4.7 (3.78)

Engineering technology 14.7 (6.34) 16.4 (4.94) 40.7 (10.1) 28.2 (7.62)

Health occupations 44.2 (6.79) 32.6 (6.85) 15.9 (4.06) 7.3 (2.78)

Science/mathematics 5.9 (3.95) 22.1 (10.7) 36.5 (9.37) 35.5 (9.34)

Arts and applied arts 38.2 (10.2) 31.0 (8.88) 25.4 (9.32) 5.3 (4.48)

General studies 16.3 (2.86) 35.1 (3.54) 35.4 (3.39) 13.2 (2.62)

Education/human services 63.0 (11.0) 17.0 (7.66) 18.6 (8.18) 1.4 (1.42)

Protective services 55.0 (10.3) 36.9 (9.32) 8.2 (3.47) #

Trades/precision production 75.1 (12.2) 22.7 (11.9) 2.2 (2.26) #

# Rounds to zero. NOTES: (1) Universe consists of 1992 12th graders who earned associate’s degrees from community colleges by

December 2000. Weighted N = 206k. (2) Rows may not sum to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (3) Standard

errors are in parentheses. (4) For distribution of associate’s degree majors earned at community colleges, see table

5.4. 

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
76

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77

Part 6:

Undergraduate Grades: A Complex Story

Judging from newspaper articles and editorials, Americans are fascinated by grades in education,

almost as fascinated as by indicators of athletic performance in the sports section or various

market averages in the business section. In the daily newspaper, grades are similar to earned run

averages (ERAs) of baseball pitchers, or the weighted ratings of quarterbacks and mutual fund

managers. These are all, putatively, transparent indicators of performance, though we probably

understand grades far better than ERAs. Table 6.1 looks across the transcript-recorded

postsecondary grades of the three grade-cohort longitudinal studies using two common metrics,

the distribution of letter grades and grade point averages (GPAs) of different populations.

The first— and major— point (illustrated in table 6.1) is that, judging by both distribution of

letter grades and GPAs, changes have been minor and complex since the high school class of

1972 went to college. In terms of the distribution of letter grades, the proportion of grades that

were “A” declined slightly between the Class of 1972 and the Class of 1982, then rose between

the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992. The inverse to this pattern can be observed for the

proportions of grades that were “B” and “D.” In terms of final undergraduate GPAs, those for

women and students who earned bachelor’s degrees, as well as among some majors (health

sciences and services, social sciences, and applied social sciences), dropped from the Class of

1972 to the Class of 1982, then rose for the Class of 1992. 

The more notable issue in changes of grading practices from the 1970s through the1990s is the

growing proportion of withdrawals (Ws) and no-credit repeats (abbreviated as NCRs in this

document), both of which are now treated as nonpenalty grades by many institutions. There is an

unhappy paradox here, however: what is labeled as "nonpenalty" actually involves a more subtle

penalty. The time one loses in such situations is time one must recoup at a later point. As table

6.2a (using the Class of 1992) demonstrates, the volume of no-penalty Ws and NCRs has an

inverse relationship to highest degree earned, and as table 6.2b indicates, there is a direct

relationship between the number of these grades and time-to-degree among those who earned

bachelor’s degrees. Other features of student postsecondary history interact with the volume of

Ws and NCRs, and analysts are invited to consider, for example, the distribution of such grades

by institutional selectivity (table 6.3), and the discrete courses with the highest proportion of W

and NCR grades (table 6.5).

For both the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992, table 6.3 presents the distribution of grades by

institutional selectivity. Because students may attend institutions of varying selectivity during

their undergraduate careers and may also take a course more than once, this table uses the

course—not the student—as the unit of analysis.
78

Table 6.1. Distribution of undergraduate letter grades of 1972, 1982, and 1992 12th

graders, and average undergraduate grade point averages (GPAs) of 1972,

1982, and 1992 12th graders, by gender, level of educational attainment, and

(for bachelor’s degree recipients), bachelor’s degree major

Class of 1972 Class of 1982 Class of 1992

 Distribution of letter-equivalent grades1

As 27.3 (0.34) 26.1 (0.33) 28.1 (0.36)

 Bs 31.2 (0.24) 32.8 (0.27) 29.9 (0.23)

Cs 21.9 (0.21) 22.2 (0.23) 18.2 (0.23)

Ds 5.4 (0.14) 5.8 (0.12) 4.6 (0.09)

Fs/penalty grades 3.8 (0.11) 4.8 (0.13) 4.5 (0.14)

Pass/credit, etc.2 6.4 (0.15) 2.6 (0.17) 6.4 (0.17)

 Withdrawal, no-credit repeat2

 4.0 (0.13) 6.7 (0.16) 8.3 (0.19)

Average GPAs for students earning more than 10 credits

 All students 2.70 (.008) 2.66 (.012) 2.74 (.014)

 Gender

Men 2.61 (.011) 2.61 (.018) 2.64 (.020)

 Women 2.80 (.011) 2.71 (.016) 2.83 (.017)

 Level of attainment

Less than BA 2.48 (.012) 2.47 (.019) 2.43 (.021)

 BA or higher 2.94 (.008) 2.88 (.011) 3.04 (.011)

 Bachelor’s degree major

Business 2.78 (.019) 2.79 (.022) 2.98 (.023)

Education 2.98 (.016) 2.93 (.030) 3.16 (.030)

 Engineering 2.94 (.032) 2.88 (.044) 3.02 (.051)

Physical sciences 2.94 (.046) 2.89 (.098) 3.05 (.127)

Math/computer science 3.10 (.067) 3.02 (.048) 3.01 (.033)

Life sciences 2.98 (.024) 3.00 (.043) 3.07 (.036)

Health sciences/services 3.02 (.027) 2.90 (.040) 3.11 (.029)

Humanities 3.08 (.031) 3.04 (.038) 3.15 (.046)

Arts 3.06 (.034) 3.05 (.048) 3.14 (.046)

Social sciences 2.95 (.019) 2.85 (.035) 3.03 (.025)

Applied social sciences 2.87 (.023) 2.77 (.036) 2.88 (.028)

Other 3.05 (.048) 2.86 (.116) 2.91 (.054)

1

All undergraduate grades for all students in all institutions. 2

Pass, Credit, (no-penalty) Withdrawal, and No-Credit Repeat grades are not included in GPA.

NOTES: (1) The universe of students whose grades are included consists of all 12th graders in each cohort who

became postsecondary participants. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCES: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972; High School and Beyond/Sophomore

Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
79

Table 6.2a. Relationship of number of no-penalty course withdrawals (Ws) and no-credit

repeats (NCRs) to highest degree earned for 1992 12th graders, 1992-2000 

Percent of students whose highest degree was . . .

PostNone Certificate Associate’s Bachelor’s Baccalaureate Graduate 

Number of Percent

Ws and NCRs of students

 in category

None 22.8 10.5 8.6 36.9 11.1 10.2 32.7

(1.27) (0.89) (0.77) (1.48) (0.73) (0.79) (0.85)

1–2 31.9 4.1 9.4 37.0 10.5 7.1 28.4

(1.55) (0.66) (0.94) (1.55) (0.83) (0.70) (0.75)

3–6 43.1 4.3 9.7 33.0 7.0 2.8 24.4

(2.07) (0.99) (1.05) (1.71) (0.70) (0.47) (0.79)

7 or more 61.0 3.1 10.6 21.5 3.5 0.3 14.6

(2.38) (0.93) (1.70) (1.74) (0.68) (0.17) (0.67)

............................................................................................................................................................

Table 6.2b. Relationship of number of no-penalty course withdrawals (Ws) and no-credit

repeats (NCRs) to time-to-degree for 1992 12th graders who earned

bachelor’s degrees, 1992-2000

 Average time-to-degree for bachelor’s recipients (in elapsed calendar years) Number of Percent

Ws and NCRs Years s.e. of students

 in category

None 4.14 (0.033) 39.1 (1.27)

1–2 4.45 (0.035) 31.9 (1.10)

3–6 5.02 (0.060) 21.4 (0.99)

7 or more 5.97 (0.083) 7.6 (0.56)

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of 1992 12th graders who subsequently entered postsecondary education. Weighted

N for highest degree = 2.09M. (2) Weighted N for bachelor’s recipients for whom time-to-degree could be

determined = 920k. (3) Rows for highest degree earned and columns for percent of all may not sum to 100.0 percent

because of rounding. (4) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
80

Table 6.3. Distribution of undergraduate grades by institutional selectivity: All

institutions attended by 12th graders in the Class of 1982 (1982–1993) and

12th graders in the Class of 1992 (1992–2000)

Percentage of undergraduate grades that were . . . Percent

 of all

 A B C D F P WRPT1 grades

Institutional selectivity

Highly selective

Class of 1982 30.8 42.1 15.2 2.3 2.0 6.7 1.5 2.7

(1.61) (1.40) (1.12) (0.44) (0.31) (0.76) (0.25) (0.36)

Class of 1992 31.4 33.6 14.8 2.6 1.2 14.9 1.7 3.8

(2.07) (1.14) (1.62) (0.87) (0.33) (1.88) (0.17) (0.53)

Selective

Class of 1982 26.4 38.3 21.0 4.4 2.8 3.4 3.7 10.5

(1.01) (0.75) (0.76) (0.25) (0.23) (0.30) (0.27) (0.60)

Class of 1992 30.4 33.8 16.9 3.8 2.5 8.3 4.2 16.5

(0.85) (0.58) (0.59) (0.22) (0.20) (0.45) (0.29) (0.82)

Nonselective

Class of 1982 24.6 33.3 23.7 6.4 4.7 2.1 5.3 57.9

(0.42) (0.32) (0.28) (0.16) (0.17) (0.14) (0.16) (0.90)

Class of 1992 29.2 30.8 19.0 5.0 4.1 5.6 6.4 51.9

(0.48) (0.29) (0.32) (0.12) (0.18) (0.18) (0.17) (1.02)

Open door

Class of 1982 24.2 28.6 20.8 5.6 6.4 2.3 12.1 25.5

(0.55) (0.44) (0.39) (0.18) (0.25) (0.53) (0.41) (0.70)

Class of 1992 23.4 24.7 18.4 4.9 7.2 5.4 16.0 25.4

(0.58) (0.44) (0.34) (0.17) (0.31) (0.24) (0.51) (0.82)

Not rated

Class of 1982 34.4 31.2 17.6 4.1 3.0 7.2 2.4 3.5

(2.14) (1.59) (1.62) (0.51) (0.51) (1.62) (0.65) (0.26)

Class of 1992 36.1 33.1 14.4 3.1 2.1 6.9 4.3 2.4

(2.24) (1.58) (1.42) (0.44) (0.43) (0.89) (0.91) (0.25)

1 Withdrawals and No-Credit Repeats combined.

NOTES: (1) All penalty grades are included under “F.” (2) Rows may not sum to 100.0 percent because of

rounding. (3) All undergraduate students included. (4) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics: High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194;

NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
81

The reader will note the following changes between the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992:

• In highly selective institutions (accounting for less than 4 percent of all grades in

both cohorts), a notable increase in the proportion of grades that were 

“P”—principally at the expense of grades of “B.”

• At selective institutions, an increase in the proportion of grades that were “A” and

“P”—at the expense of grades that were “B” and “C.” Selective institutions

increased their share of all grades from 10.5 to 16.5 percent between the Class of

1982 and the Class of 1992 as a result of both increases in enrollments in flagship

state universities and changes in the selectivity ratings of some state universities

from nonselective to selective.

• The proportion of Bs declined in all categories of institutions except those that

were “not rated.”

• Open-door institutions were by far the leaders in the proportion of grades that were

Withdrawals (Ws) and No-Credit Repeats (NCRs).

To bring the role of institutional selectivity into the analysis of student-level performance, table

6.4 sets forth bachelor’s degree recipients’ GPAs over all three grade-cohort longitudinal studies. 

The reader will note the consistency of the relationship in both the Class of 1972 and the Class of

1982: the more selective the institution granting the bachelor’s degree, the higher the student’s

GPA (no matter how many other institutions—some of differing selectivity—the student had

attended). No similar conclusion can be reached for the Class of 1992, however.

Table 6.4. Undergraduate grade point averages (GPAs) of 1972, 1982, and 1992 12th

graders who earned bachelor’s degrees, by selectivity of the institution

awarding the bachelor’s degree

Class of 1972 Class of 1982 Class of 1992

(1972–1984) (1982–1993) (1992–2000)

GPA S.D. s.e. GPA S.D. s.e. GPA S.D. s.e.

Selectivity of institution

awarding the bachelor’s

Highly selective 3.17 .51 .049 3.09 0.61 .070 3.15 0.48 .058

Selective 3.01 .50 .025 2.94 0.50 .028 3.07 0.44 .021

Nonselective 2.92 .45 .009 2.85 0.50 .013 3.00 0.46 .012

NOTES: (1) Weighted Ns: Class of 1972 = 733k; Class of 1982 = 855k; Class of 1992 = 921k.

SOURCES: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972; High School and Beyond/Sophomore

Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
82

The transcript evidence shows that grade distributions varied considerably from course to course. 

Table 6.5 takes eight high-enrollment-volume courses from the Class of 1992 files to illustrate

this phenomenon. 

Table 6.5. Letter grade distribution in selected high-enrollment-volume undergraduate

courses taken by 1992 12th graders: 1992-2000

Introduct

and TechIntroductory Intermed nical Micro- Organic U.S.

Accounting Spanish Writing biology Calculus Ethics Chemistry Gov’t

A 18.1 27.3 34.0 20.6 19.1 31.8 21.8 15.5

 (0.99) (1.44) (1.85) (2.03) (1.16) (2.37) (1.48) (0.89)

B 27.6 29.5 39.1 29.7 25.7 34.5 30.8 29.5

(1.12) (1.07) (1.89) (2.64) (1.25) (1.99) (1.49) (1.14)

C 22.4 18.4 13.4 31.0 25.8 17.4 25.5 27.3

(1.16) (1.03) (1.35) (4.34) (1.28) (1.40) (1.29) (1.17)

D 7.6 5.4 2.3 4.7 7.8 4.1 5.5 8.9

(0.62) (0.52) (0.58) (0.92) (0.94) (0.79) (1.29) (0.76)

F 7.0 4.8 3.5 2.7 5.5 2.2 3.6 6.1

(0.58) (0.65) (0.83) (0.59) (0.65) (0.42) (0.57) (0.83)

Pass/credit 1.1 4.7 1.6 3.9 3.7 3.1 2.2 0.9

(0.30) (0.62) (0.39) (0.88) (0.98) (1.02) (0.48) (0.21)

Withdraw 11.1 8.1 5.6 5.5 7.4 6.1 7.1 9.2

(0.80) (0.70) (0.95) (1.05) (0.69) (1.17) (0.84) (0.90)

Repeat 4.5 1.8 0.5 1.9 6.9 0.8 8.7 2.6

(0.45) (0.39) (0.18) (0.84) (0.70) (0.51) (0.63) (0.39)

Number of 1105 959 601 513 674 699 438 1002

 Institutions

Weighted 849k 961k 308k 231k 691k 338k 503k 827k

 Cases

NOTES: (1) Columns may not add to 100.0 percent because of rounding. (2) The universe and weights are those for

all known postsecondary participants. (3) The threshold for “high enrollment volume” is 200,000 weighted cases of

course-taking over the period 1992-2000. (4) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
17The NELS:88/2000 postsecondary students attended a total of 3,258 institutions of all kinds, from

research universities to vocational schools granting less-than-1-year certificates.

83

Nearly two out of every three grades in ethics is an honors grade (A or B), compared with 45

percent in introductory accounting, calculus, and U.S. government—courses in which the

withdrawal, repeat, and failure rates were also high. These courses were taken by the

NELS:88/2000 postsecondary students in a minimum of 438 institutions (for organic chemistry)

to a high of 1,105 institutions (for introductory accounting).17 Approximately 1 million grades

were recorded for introductory and intermediate-level Spanish courses, compared with 231,000

for Microbiology. These are very robust numbers that open up lines of research inquiry for those

who wish to add such institutional variables as sector, Carnegie type, and selectivity to the

analysis. 

Table 6.5 picked high-enrollment-volume courses as its subject, and deliberately selected from

different sectors of the disciplinary spectrum. Researchers who wish to investigate the enduring 

effects of grades might start with students’ stated intentions of major, identify a set of “gateway”

courses in that field and/or related fields, and model the relationship between grades in the

gateways to subsequent attainment.

A last topic of interest in the consideration of grades and grading focuses on the courses with the

highest percentage of grades that were (1) Withdrawals and Repeats (table 6.6), (2) Penalty

Grades (table 6.7), and “As” (table 6.8). All of these are presented for the Class of 1992 only. 

• Withdrawals and repeats (table 6.6) are concentrated in remedial courses,

mathematics, major lower-division distribution courses such as U.S. history

surveys and general chemistry, and introductory-level courses in business and

accounting. The same observations concerning remedial and mathematics courses

held for the Class of 1982 (see Adelman 1999a, table 6.3, p. 202), despite a

different methodology for generating the list (a different threshold of weighted

cases was used).

• Failures and other penalty grades (table 6.7) are also concentrated in remedial

courses, mathematics, introductory-level courses in business and accounting, and

major lower-division distribution courses such as general psychology and

introduction to fine arts. The parallel list for the Class of 1982 (see Adelman

1999a, table 6.4, p. 203) was more eclectic.

• The list of courses with the highest proportion of grades that were “A” (table 6.8),

like its predecessor for the Class of 1982 (see Adelman 1999a, table 6.5, p. 204), is

dominated by teacher education and performing arts.
84

Table 6.6. The 20 undergraduate courses1 with the highest proportions of Withdrawal

(W) and No Credit Repeat (NCR) grades taken by 1992 12th graders:

1992–2000

Percentage of

grades that were

Course Ws or NCRs CCM Code2

All 8.4 ---------

Basic algebra 28.8 (1.70) 270103

Intermediate algebra 24.6 (0.99) 270105

College algebra 24.0 (0.85) 270203

Developmental math 20.8 (1.32) 270101

Remedial writing 19.3 (1.13) 232001

Remedial reading 18.2 (1.34) 232002

Precalculus 16.8 (0.97) 270204

Finite mathematics 15.9 (1.85) 270202

Introduction to accounting 14.9 (0.64) 060201

Anatomy and physiology 14.4 (1.32) 260801

Statistics (Math) 14.3 (1.05) 270501

U.S. history surveys 13.8 (0.92) 450810

Calculus for business 13.1 (1.85) 270602

General intro college math 13.5 (1.49) 270201

General chemistry 13.5 (0.68) 400501

English composition 12.8 (0.41) 230401

Introduction to business 12.5 (1.26) 060101

Calculus 12.5 (0.70) 270601

Computer programming 12.3 (1.38) 110201

Logic (Philosophy) 12.1 (1.10) 380103

1

All NELS:88/2000 undergraduate course grades that were not flagged as transfer courses or credit-by-examination. 

Only those courses with 150,000 or more weighted enrollments over the period, 1992–2000, were considered. 

Physical education and personal development courses are excluded on the grounds that they do not contribute to the

assessment of academic performance. Only nonpenalty withdrawals (Ws) are included. Penalty withdrawals (WF,

WU) are included with penalty grades in table 6.7.

2

 “CCM” stands for “College Course Map,” and indicates the code in the taxonomy used to code courses. The

taxonomy used across all three grade cohort longitudinal studies postsecondary transcript components is set forth in

Adelman, C., The New College Course Map and Transcript Files, Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education,

2nd edition, 1999. Modifications to the taxonomy for the NELS:88/2000 data set can be found in NCES 2003-402. 

NOTES: (1) The universe of course-takers consists of all 1992 12th graders who became known postsecondary

participants. Weighted N=2.09M. (2) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
85

Table 6.7. The 20 undergraduate courses1 with the highest proportions of failure/penalty

grades taken by 1992 12th graders: 1992–2000

Percentage of

grades that were

Course F, WF, or U CCM Code2

All 4.5 ---------

Developmental math 14.2 (1.69) 270101

Intermediate algebra 13.5 (1.25) 270105

Basic algebra 13.3 (1.15) 270103

Remedial writing 11.6 (1.48) 232001

Remedial reading 11.4 (1.63) 232002

General intro college math 10.3 (2.05) 270201

Basic academic skills 9.3 (3.52) 320102

Introduction to business 9.0 (2.08) 060101

College algebra 9.0 (0.80) 270203

Intro criminal justice 8.9 (2.65) 430104

Logic (Philosophy) 8.3 (2.07) 380103

Introduction to fine arts 8.1 (2.03) 500701

Calculus for business 7.9 (1.96) 270602

Intro computers/computing 7.9 (0.99) 110102

General psychology 7.9 (0.67) 420101

Precalculus 7.6 (0.68) 270204

Finite mathematics 7.6 (1.86) 270202

Engineering graphics/CAD 7.4 (2.00) 155001

Computer applications: office 7.2 (1.83) 210101

Computer programming 7.1 (1.27) 110201

 

1

All NELS:88/2000 undergraduate course grades that were not flagged as transfer courses or credit-by-examination. 

Only those courses with 150,000 or more weighted enrollments over the period, 1992-2000, were considered. 

Physical education and personal development courses are excluded on the grounds that they do not contribute to the

assessment of academic performance. 2

 “CCM” stands for “College Course Map,” and indicates the code in the taxonomy used to code courses. The

taxonomy used across all three grade cohort longitudinal studies postsecondary transcript components is set forth in

Adelman, C., The New College Course Map and Transcript Files, Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education,

2nd edition, 1999. Modifications to the taxonomy for the NELS:88/2000 data set can be found in NCES 2003-402. 

NOTES: (1) The 4-point grade scale was formatted as follows: 0-<0.7='F' 0.7-<1.3='D' 1.3-<1.7='C-/D+' 

1.7-<2.3='C' 2.3-<2.7='B-/C+' 2.7-<3.3='B' 3.3-<3.6='A-/B+' 3.6-<4.01='A'

(2) The universe of course-takers consisted of all 1992 12th graders who became known postsecondary participants. 

Weighted N=2.09M. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
86

Table 6.8. The 20 undergraduate courses1 with the highest proportions of “A” grades

taken by 1992 12th graders: 1992–2000

Percentage of

grades that were

A or equivalent CCM Code2

All 28.4 ---------

Music performance 64.2 (1.99) 500903

Teacher Ed: reading education 63.5 (2.46) 131315

Teacher Ed: language arts 53.4 (3.60) 131323

Education: materials and methods 53.1 (2.88) 130302

Theater: acting, directing 52.5 (3.21) 500501

Introduction to special education 51.7 (2.81) 131001

Teacher Ed: physical education 51.6 (3.10) 131314

Mathematics education 49.7 (3.14) 131311

Medical terminology 46.6 (3.72) 172001

Stagecraft, set design 46.2 (4.09) 500405

Dance3 45.6 (2.44) 500301 

Creative writing 44.5 (3.11) 230501

Intro to education 44.9 (2.52) 130101

Theology 42.4 (3.77) 390601

Intro to Windows and office software 40.4 (4.33) 070802

Women’s studies: general 37.9 (3.68) 300701

Basic musicianship, solfeggio 37.3 (2.83) 500901

Educational psychology 34.6 (2.46) 130801

Bible studies 33.1 (2.14) 390201

Ethics (Philosophy) 32.9 (2.65) 380102

1

All NELS:88/2000 undergraduate course grades that were not flagged as transfer courses or credit-by-examination. 

Only those courses with 150,000 or more weighted enrollments over the period, 1992-2000, were considered. 

Physical education and personal development courses are excluded on the grounds that they do not contribute to the

assessment of academic performance. 2

 “CCM” stands for “College Course Map,” and indicates the code in the taxonomy used to code courses. The

taxonomy used across all three grade cohort longitudinal studies postsecondary transcript components is set forth in

Adelman, C., The New College Course Map and Transcript Files. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education,

2nd edition, 1999. Modifications to the taxonomy for the NELS:88/2000 data set can be found on NCES 2003-402. 3

Does not include dance taught under physical education activities.

NOTES: (1) The 4-point grade scale was formatted as follows: 0-<0.7='F' 0.7-<1.3='D' 1.3-<1.7='C-/D+' 

1.7-<2.3='C' 2.3-<2.7='B-/C+' 2.7-<3.3='B' 3.3-<3.6='A-/B+' 3.6-<4.01='A'

(2) The universe of course-takers consists of all 1992 12th graders who became known postsecondary participants. 

Weighted N = 2.09M. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCE: NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
87

Part 7:

Special Topic: Remediation

Precollegiate-level coursework undertaken in postsecondary settings is generally labeled

“remedial,” and is the subject of much contention (Merisotis and Phipps 2000; Breneman and

Harlow 1998; Manno 1995). Only 20 percent of undergraduates responding to surveys say they

have ever taken a remedial course (Horn, Peter, and Rooney 2002), but the transcript data dispute

that figure. Based on analysis of the HS&B/sophomore cohort transcript files, an indicator that

combined the types and amounts of postsecondary remedial coursework was developed and

presented in Wirt, J. at al, The Condition of Education, 2000 (Washington, DC: National Center

for Education Statistics 2000; indicator 14, p. 52, and supplemental tables 34–1, 34–2, and 34–3,

p.152). 

The indicator was based on an “if-then-else” logic with five categories:

1. Any courses in remedial reading

2. Two or fewer remedial courses, mathematics only

3. Two or more remedial courses, but no remedial reading

4. One remedial course, not mathematics or reading

5. No remedial courses

The logic was designed to sort out students with the most serious remedial problem (reading)

first. Remedial reading was judged to be the most serious remedial problem because two-thirds

of the students who required remediation in reading were also enrolled in a minimum of two other

remedial courses. The second step sorted out students whose only remedial problem was in

mathematics, and who required, at most, two remedial math courses. This is not as intense a

remedial configuration as that of the third level of the logic cascade, where 60 percent of the

students enrolled in three or more remedial courses other than remedial reading (the logic allowed

this combination to include three or more math courses). The fourth step sorted out those students

who took only one remedial course other than reading or math. The residual group of students

took no remedial courses.

The presentation of this variable in Principal Indicators draws on both the HS&B/sophomore

cohort and the NELS:88/2000 transcript files and seeks only to establish its basic dimensions and

relationships to precollegiate histories. 

Figure 2 provides the course category titles and codes used in determining the different remedial

course configurations, and requires a gloss. There are some slight differences in the way in which

remedial courses were defined in the two transcript files, and the NELS:88/2000 added two codes 

based on catalog descriptions and indications of nonadditive credit on transcripts. 

In general, the content of a course flagged as remedial is distinctly and unquestionably

precollegiate, whether or not the credits attached to the course are additive (that is, count toward a

credential). Business English is a case in point. It is a course offered exclusively in subbaccalaureate institutions, and (as catalogue searches confirmed) covers the most basic elements

of writing, with an emphasis on punctuation and spelling. This material is precollegiate, but in a

trade school certificate program in business support (what was once called “secretarial”), the

credits count toward the certificate. 
88

Intermediate algebra, a comparatively high-enrollment-volume course, is a different type of case. 

In the taxonomy of course categories for the classes of 1972 and 1982, all precollegiate algebra

courses were housed under the same code. For the taxonomy of course categories for the Class of

1992, intermediate algebra was split out from this category because, while few (if any) 4-year

colleges grant additive credits for the course, a majority of community colleges do grant additive

credit, and statewide policies vary in this matter (Crowe 1998). With review of external faculty

and registrars’ panels, the decision-rule adopted was that cases of intermediate algebra were

counted as remedial only if no additive credit was granted on the transcripts.

The category labeled “Other precollegiate math” underwent a transformation in the taxonomy

governing the presentation of postsecondary coursework for the Class of 1992 and was dropped

from the remedial universe. This decision was reached in the course of examining catalog

descriptions of courses that set intermediate algebra as a prerequisite yet basically reviewed and

repackaged everything students should have learned in a full high school mathematics program

through trigonometry. Additive credit was granted in all cases.

Figure 2. Course categories and codes included in the analysis of postsecondary

remediation

 CCM Code1

HS&B/So NELS:88/2000

Remedial reading 232002 232002

Remedial English/writing 232001 232001

Remedial speech 232003 232003

ESL 232004 232004

Business English/punctuation 070901 070901

Developmental mathematics 270101 270101

Arithmetic 270102 270102

Basic algebra 270103 270103

Plane geometry 270104 270104

Intermediate algebra 4 2701052

Business math: arithmetic-based 270901 270901

Other precollegiate mathematics 270199 3

Adult basic education 320101 320101

Basic learning skills 320102 320102

Preparatory science 4

 300104

Preparatory chemistry 4 400540

1

 “CCM” stands for “College Course Map,” and indicates the code in the taxonomy used to code courses. The

taxonomy used across all three grade cohort longitudinal studies postsecondary transcript components is set forth in

Adelman, C., The New College Course Map and Transcript Files. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education,

2nd edition, 1999. Modifications to the taxonomy for the NELS:88/2000 data set can be found in NCES 2003-402. 2

 Counted as remedial only when credits are indicated as nonadditive on transcript. 3 Category dropped from the remedial course group in the NELS:88/2000.

4

 Category did not exist in the taxonomy used to code the HS&B/So postsecondary transcripts.

SOURCES: High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary

Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
89

Table 7.1 offers a basic portrait of postsecondary remedial work distributed by the 5-category

variable, with attention to the timing of postsecondary entry and the nature of the first institution

attended. The reader will note:

• In the column for “no remediation,” an improvement of approximately 9 percent

between the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992. Using the inverse of this figure,

roughly 51 percent of students in the Class of 1982 were enrolled in at least one

remedial course at some time in their undergraduate careers, compared with 42

percent of students in the Class of 1992.

• There was no significant change in the proportion of students enrolled in remedial

reading between the two cohorts: 11 percent.

• Differences in remedial work by delay of entry into postsecondary education are

apparent only in the Class of 1992 cohort.

• In both cohorts, over 60 percent of those whose first institution of attendance was a

community college took at least one remedial course. For students first enrolling

in 4-year colleges, there was a considerable decline in the proportion enrolling in

remedial courses (from 44 to 25 percent).
90

Table 7.1. Percent of 1982 and 1992 12th graders who took remedial courses in

postsecondary institutions, by type and intensity of remedial work, by timing

of postsecondary entry and type of first institution attended

Percent of students taking . . . 

1-2 courses 2 or more Only 1

Any of remedial other other

remedial math remedial remedial No

reading only1 courses course remediation

(not reading) (not math

or reading)

All participants

Class of 1982 11.1 (0.49) 13.7 (0.56) 16.5 (0.56) 9.3 (0.44) 49.3 (0.82)

Class of 1992 10.6 (0.68) 10.9 (0.60) 13.2 (0.69) 6.7 (0.36) 58.6 (1.04)

By timing of entry

Class of 1982

No delay 11.6 (0.58) 13.8 (0.63) 16.1 (0.66) 9.5 (0.50) 49.1 (0.96)

Delayed 9.8 (1.00) 13.3 (1.22) 18.9 (1.31) 8.9 (1.05) 49.1 (1.85)

Class of 1992

No delay 10.6 (0.76) 9.8 (0.62) 11.4 (0.67) 6.8 (0.39) 61.4 (1.13)

Delayed 9.8 (1.29) 15.7 (1.78) 22.1 (2.19) 6.4 (1.01) 46.0 (2.53)

By type of

institution first

attended

Class of 1982

 4-year 9.3 (0.61) 13.6 (0.78) 11.6 (0.67) 9.0 (0.57) 56.4 (1.13)

 Community college 15.4 (0.94) 15.2 (0.92) 23.1 (1.03) 9.6 (0.76) 36.7 (1.25)

 Other sub-bacca- 3.3 (0.89) 6.8 (1.34) 20.6 (2.40) 10.8 (1.92) 58.5 (2.93)

 laureate

Class of 1992

 4-year 5.2 (0.55) 7.0 (0.62) 6.6 (0.55) 6.5 (0.47) 74.7 (1.04)

 Community college 17.8 (1.38) 15.5 (1.22) 21.0 (1.36) 7.0 (0.63) 38.9 (1.66)

 Other sub-bacca- 6.6 (1.34) 12.7 (2.85) 19.9 (3.71) 9.1 (1.95) 51.7 (3.85)

 laureate

1 A student with three or more remedial mathematics courses (but no remedial reading) is assigned to the category of

“more than one other remedial course.”

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of all 12th graders who subsequently were known participants in postsecondary

education. Weighted N for Class of 1982 = 1.898M; Class of 1992 = 2.09M. (2) Rows may not sum to 100.0 percent

because of rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. 

SOURCES: High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS88/2000 Postsecondary

Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
91

Table 7.2 highlights some of the demographic and secondary school background characteristics of

students across the remediation spectrum, and invites analysts to look more deeply at these and

other associations through multivariate analyses. Among the observations attendant on table 7.2:

• For both the Class of 1982 and the Class of 1992, students from urban high schools

were more likely to be taking remedial courses in college than were students from

suburban and rural high schools. 

• In both cohorts, students from the lowest SES quintile were more likely to be

assigned to remedial work than students from the other quintiles, though this

phenomenon is more pronounced for the Class of 1992 (in the 1992–2000 period)

than for the Class of 1982 a decade earlier.

• While there was a notable improvement for African-American students’

remediation participation between the two cohorts (the proportion of those

requiring no remedial work rose from 28 to 38 percent), both African-American

and Latino students still lagged the other major race/ethnicity groups.

• In a separate multivariate analysis invoking the three major measures of secondary

school performance—academic curriculum intensity, class rank/GPA, and senior

year test score—the senior year test score proved to have the strongest association

with the need for remediation. This association is borne out in the Class of 1992 in

the distribution of students across the remediation categories: for example, 4 out of

5 students in the lowest test score quintile took at least one remedial course,

compared with less than 1 out of 10 from the highest test score quintile.

For each of the remediation categories, table 7.3 provides a distribution of the students by highest

degree earned, comparing the Class of 1982 to the Class of 1992. The reader will note that

bachelor’s degree completion rates for the Class of 1992 are lower than they are for the Class of

1982 at all levels of remediation except that of “no remedial courses.” But the surface data are

somewhat deceiving, since the Class of 1982 cohort postsecondary transcript history is 11 years

versus 8.5 years for the Class of 1992. There is no way to truncate the HS&B/So student-level

data base to match the NELS:88/2000 in this regard because, at the student-level, there are no

dates for terms in which individual courses were taken.

Unlike other tables in Principal Indicators, all the remediation tables are based on the complete

universes of known postsecondary participants, including incidental students. Among incidental

students in the Class of 1992, 74 percent took at least one remedial course (Adelman, Daniel, and

Berkovits 2003, table 16), well above the 42 percent for the entire cohort.
92

Table 7.2. Percent of 1982 and 1992 12th graders who took remedial courses in

postsecondary institutions, by type and intensity of remedial work, by selected

high school background and demographic factors

Percent of students taking . . .

1-2 courses 2 or more Only 1

Any of remedial other other

remedial math remedial remedial No

reading only1 courses course remediation

(not reading) (not math

or reading)

All participants

Class of 1982 11.1 (0.49) 13.7 (0.56) 16.5 (0.56) 9.3 (0.44) 49.3 (0.82)

Class of 1992 10.6 (0.68) 10.9 (0.60) 13.2 (0.69) 6.7 (0.36) 58.6 (1.04)

By urbanicity

of high school

Class of 1982

Urban 15.5 (1.30) 14.0 (1.33) 20.5 (1.46) 8.4 (0.94) 41.7 (1.89)

Suburban 9.7 (0.64) 12.9 (0.74) 15.8 (0.73) 9.9 (0.63) 51.6 (1.15)

Rural 10.7 (0.95) 15.0 (1.11) 15.1 (1.05) 9.0 (0.79) 50.2 (1.55)

Class of 1992

Urban 13.0 (1.50) 11.7 (1.26) 15.2 (1.47) 6.9 (0.70) 53.2 (2.06)

Suburban 10.2 (1.07) 9.1 (0.82) 11.7 (0.91) 6.3 (0.55) 62.6 (1.53)

Rural 9.0 (0.91) 11.4 (1.23) 13.3 (1.14) 7.0 (0.60) 58.4 (1.58)

By SES quintile

(100th percentile is high)

Class of 1982

 81st -100th percentile 7.1 (0.75) 13.0 (1.01) 12.9 (1.02) 9.4 (0.85) 57.5 (1.50)

 61st - 80th percentile 9.0 (0.87) 15.5 (1.18) 16.2 (1.12) 10.5 (0.99) 48.8 (1.62)

 41st - 60th percentile 10.2 (1.05) 14.1 (1.14) 17.9 (1.33) 10.2 (0.99) 47.6 (1.72)

 21st - 40th percentile 15.3 (1.44) 14.5 (1.36) 16.6 (1.47) 7.8 (0.96) 45.9 (1.92)

 1st - 20th percentile 17.6 (1.90) 11.7 (1.80) 20.7 (1.95) 10.0 (1.42) 39.9 (2.34)

Class of 1992

 81st -100th percentile 5.9 (1.21) 6.8 (0.73) 6.8 (0.75) 5.3 (0.73) 75.2 (1.47)

 61st - 80th percentile 10.8 (1.45) 10.1 (1.10) 12.6 (1.35) 7.7 (0.81) 58.8 (1.99)

 41st - 60th percentile 9.9 (1.09) 15.4 (1.84) 14.2 (1.42) 6.2 (0.73) 54.3 (2.07)

 21st - 40th percentile 10.6 (1.12) 12.1 (1.10) 18.2 (1.91) 10.1 (1.31) 49.0 (2.16)

 1st - 20th percentile 22.9 (2.73) 12.9 (2.04) 22.1 (2.70) 5.3 (0.79) 36.8 (3.20)

See notes at end of table. 
93

Table 7.2. Percent of 1982 and 1992 12th graders who took remedial courses in

postsecondary institutions, by type and intensity of remedial work, by selected

high school background and demographic factors–Continued

Percent of students taking . . . 

1-2 courses 2 or more Only 1

Any remedial other other

remedial math remedial remedial No

reading only courses course remediation

(not reading) (not math

or reading)

By Race/ethnicity

Class of 1982

 White 7.7 (0.48) 14.5 (0.65) 15.1 (0.61) 9.7 (0.51) 53.0 (0.92)

 African-American 31.6 (2.09) 11.6 (1.50) 21.7 (2.11) 7.1 (1.04) 28.0 (1.78)

 Latino 20.8 (2.56) 10.3 (1.35) 24.7 (2.06) 7.4 (1.54) 36.8 (2.60)

 Asian 12.6 (2.31) 7.3 (1.76) 19.9 (3.12) 11.4 (2.02) 48.7 (3.52)

Class of 1992

 White 7.2 (0.63) 10.7 (0.65) 10.9 (0.68) 6.9 (0.41) 64.4 (1.06)

 African-American 24.1 (3.24) 10.4 (2.42) 20.6 (2.87) 6.6 (1.54) 38.3 (3.41)

 Latino 20.3 (2.53) 13.3 (1.78) 23.5 (2.78) 6.1 (1.09) 36.8 (2.92)

 Asian 10.0 (2.58) 7.7 (2.31) 13.4 (3.03) 6.8 (1.01) 62.0 (6.50)

By high school senior

test score quintile

Class of 1982

Highest 2.7 (0.41) 10.4 (0.79) 7.5 (0.70) 8.6 (0.71) 70.9 (1.27)

2nd 6.8 (0.82) 17.8 (1.20) 14.9 (1.10) 11.6 (1.08) 48.9 (1.52)

3rd 14.9 (1.29) 18.1 (1.45) 22.5 (1.39) 8.5 (0.95) 36.1 (1.76)

4th 20.2 (1.54) 10.8 (1.29) 27.8 (1.90) 8.0 (1.06) 33.2 (1.89)

Lowest 31.2 (2.95) 9.1 (2.15) 17.1 (2.23) 7.6 (1.68) 35.0 (3.10)

Class of 1992

Highest 0.4 (0.13) 3.1 (0.79) 1.8 (0.35) 3.6 (0.47) 91.1 (0.95)

2nd 3.9 (0.58) 10.4 (0.88) 9.3 (1.50) 8.7 (0.90) 67.7 (1.73)

3rd 10.2 (1.35) 17.3 (1.82) 17.6 (1.51) 8.3 (0.79) 46.6 (2.15)

4th 19.2 (1.87) 15.8 (2.11) 24.6 (2.10) 7.8 (0.91) 32.7 (2.67)

Lowest 41.1 (3.83) 8.6 (1.32) 24.0 (3.20) 5.5 (1.25) 20.7 (2.58)

1 A student with 3 or more remedial mathematics courses (but no remedial reading) is assigned to the category of

“more than one other remedial course.”

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of all 12th graders who became known participants in postsecondary education. 

Weighted N for Class of 1982 = 1.9M; for Class of 1992 = 2.09M. (2) Rows may not sum to 100.0 percent because

of rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses. (4) For description of Senior Test Score Quintile, see Glossary.

SOURCES: High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary

Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
94

Table 7.3. Highest degree earned by 1982 and 1992 12th graders who entered

postsecondary education, by type and amount of postsecondary remedial

coursework

Percent of students whose highest degree was . . . Percent of

students in

Bachelor’s remediation

None Certificate Associate’s and above category

Total Class of 1982 43.1 (0.86) 7.9 (0.45) 9.1 (0.43) 39.9 (0.88)

Total Class of 1992 42.8 (1.03) 5.0 (0.43) 8.1 (0.50) 44.1 (1.08)

Remediation

type/amount

Remedial

reading

 Class of 1982 57.3 (2.20) 4.6 (0.93) 13.5 (1.61) 24.6 (1.83) 11.1 (0.49)

 Class of 1992 70.0 (2.61) 6.2 (1.34) 7.2 (0.99) 16.6 (2.01) 10.6 (0.68)

Remedial

math only:

1-2 courses

 Class of 1982 49.1 (2.14) 4.5 (0.79) 9.8 (1.14) 36.5 (2.03) 13.7 (0.56)

 Class of 1992 58.2 (2.91) 4.3 (1.19) 10.3 (1.43) 27.2 (2.81) 10.9 (0.60)

More than one

other remedial

course

 Class of 1982 46.9 (1.83) 10.0 (1.16) 17.0 (1.45) 26.1 (1.60) 16.5 (0.56)

 Class of 1992 59.3 (2.67) 8.0 (1.52) 12.9 (1.91) 19.7 (1.98) 13.2 (0.69)

One other

remedial

course

 Class of 1982 38.4 (2.38) 9.4 (1.58) 10.0 (1.26) 42.1 (2.36) 9.3 (0.44)

 Class of 1992 43.3 (2.85) 7.4 (1.61) 10.0 (1.29) 39.3 (2.75) 6.7 (0.36)

No remedial

courses

 Class of 1982 37.8 (1.20) 8.6 (0.65) 5.1 (0.50) 48.6 (1.24) 49.3 (0.82)

 Class of 1992 31.2 (1.22) 3.9 (0.48) 6.6 (0.61) 58.3 (1.31) 58.6 (1.04)

NOTES: (1) Universe consists of all 12th graders who participated in postsecondary education. Weighted N for

Class of 1982 = 1.90M; for Class of 1992 = 2.09M. (2) Rows for highest degree may not sum to 100.0 percent

because of rounding. (3) Standard errors are in parentheses.

SOURCES: High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort, NCES 2000-194; NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary

Transcript Files, NCES 2003-402.
95

Conclusion: 

Missing Topics, Data Set Limitations, and Major Learning

Developing national data sets (particularly for longitudinal studies) and learning to use them is

somewhat like mastering a piano concerto. First one studies the structure, learns the movements

and sub-movements, practices hands separately, practices hands together, finds the difficult

passages and plays them backwards. One makes a tape, listens to it, figures out where the

passages are rough or where one thinks a different interpretation would enhance the performance. 

Then, just when one believes oneself to be on the road to Carnegie Hall, one realizes that there is

a whole orchestra and orchestral score that surrounds the solo, that sets the stage, and fills in the

passages. 

The college transcript records are analogous to the solo: they cannot be played without the full

orchestra and score. All the topics touched upon in this document to illustrate the power and

range of the transcript records are incomplete without connection to the lives of the students who

"own" those records. Longitudinal studies are life histories, and college records are but parts of

lives.

The longitudinal studies of the National Center for Education Statistics contain a wealth of

information. There are surveys of the students that cover aspirations, plans, attitudes, values,

family background, family formation, assessments of high school experiences, and labor market

experience (jobs, occupations, employers, wages, unemployment, and job satisfaction). There are

high school transcripts, test scores, military records, financial aid records, and high school

characteristics. For subsamples of the students in the HS&B/sophomore cohort and the

NELS:88/2000 there are surveys of parents, teachers, and high school principals. There are

thousands of variables, and researchers have found some to be worth more than others.

Without a larger orchestral score that draws critical features of life histories into the pool of

explanation, analysis will suffer. Take, for example, the students who earned 60 or more credits 

but who never earned a degree of any kind and who were no longer in school at age 27 (table

3.3). In all three cohorts, this group constituted 1 out of every 12 students who had entered the

postsecondary system. The transcript records take us only so far toward figuring out why they

did not finish degrees, why they left school, and what it would take to help them finish. Until we

see how they differ from other students in terms of high school curricula, family formation,

financial aid patterns, geographic mobility, and labor market experience, no one can come up

with compelling guidance for college student personnel officers and academic advisors. In his

seminal work on college dropouts, Tinto (1987) suggested that institutions develop "early

warning systems" that can spot and track students who may have difficulty completing programs. 

Both the life histories in longitudinal studies and the transcript records can be powerful resources

for academic advisors and student personnel officers looking for signs of looming trouble. And it

is that kind of guidance to which Principal Indicators can be put to use.
18Analysts interested in exploring this datum further can refer to the variable PSEBEGST on the NELS

restricted files.

96

Whatever one does with the postsecondary records fits into the life stories that can be aggregated

from all this other information. Because they are artifacts, transcripts reveal something new every

time one works with them. Over the next few years, researchers will discover the possibility of

new variables that can be derived from combinations of transcript and survey data and added to

the collection of analytical tools. The themes of some of these variables have not been used in

this document, and readers may justly ask, “Why were these themes missing, and what needs to

be done to capture them?”

Missing Constructs

Full-Time/Part-Time

The analytical construct of full-time/part-time attendance is missing from the analysis files that

produced the data used here for all three longitudinal studies cohorts. Enrollment intensity

(another phrase for the construct) on transcript records cannot be derived by algorithm. To do so

would require (1) the definition of full-time enrollment in different types of terms (regular

semester, summer school, special term, trimester intersession) from each institution, and (2) a

term-based count of credits (or credit equivalents) attempted for each student. But how does one

judge the enrollment intensity of a student who initially enrolls for (attempts) the minimum

number of credits for a term that would qualify for “full-time” status, and subsequently

withdraws—without penalty—from half of them? Is this a full-time student or a part-time

student? And if this student was enrolled, over time, at three different institutions with different

definitions of “full-time” and different credit-accounting systems, how can we characterize the

student’s long-term enrollment intensity? 

Based on the unobtrusive, transcript-based evidence, it is very difficult to classify students as fulltime/part-time. The default is this case involves referring to the student response to a survey

question, “At X {name of institution} have you ever attended less than full-time?” Assume, for a

moment, that the threshold for full-time at institution X, on a semester system, is 12 credits. One

student attended X for 8 semesters at a minimum of 12 credits, and one semester at 8 credits. 

Another student attended X for 4 semesters at a minimum of 12 credits, and 7 semesters at 3

credits. A third student enrolled in institution X for 9 credits and institution Y for 3 credits in the

same term (simultaneous enrollment). All three of these students answer the survey question in

the affirmative, and are classified as “part-time” students. Do they belong in the same categorical

bin? Or consider: In the NELS:88/2000 survey data, nearly 42 percent of the respondents who

claimed to have enrolled in college by 1994 (third follow-up) said that they had attended a

postsecondary institution full-time prior to September 1992,18 in a cohort in which 85 percent of

those who graduated from high school received their diplomas in May or June of 1992. 
19One should also note that the modified Carnegie typology (and its aggregate version) allows for the

grouping of specialized degree-granting schools such as those focusing wholly on music, fine arts, health sciences,

and theology. Among non-degree-granting sub-baccalaureate institutions, it allows for distinctions among hospitalbased schools of medical support training, cosmetology schools, and schools devoted wholly to computer and

technical training. In both these cases (the specialized degree-granting and the subbaccalaureate), one finds all three

types of control (public, not-for-profit, and for-profit). 

20The SPECMISS variable flags institutions as (1) Historically Black Colleges and Universities, (2)

Hispanic Serving Institutions, (3) Tribal Colleges, (4) Women’s Colleges, (5) Religious-Mission Institutions, (6) No

Special Mission: 4-Year, and (7) No Special Mission: 2-Year. A few institutions qualify for more than one flag.

97

In Carroll's (1989) analysis of students on the "persistence track" (those who entered college fulltime immediately following high school graduation), shifting to part-time status was one of the

key factors accounting for failure to complete credentials. Carroll's sources of data were student

responses to survey questions in the High School & Beyond/Senior Cohort. Students who

acknowledge changing enrollment intensity status are offering a story line that is more reliable

than transcripts in determining full-time or part-time status. Other studies based on survey data

have thus adopted three categories of enrollment intensity—full time, mixed (involving change in

status), and part-time (Fitzgerald et al 1994; McCormick, Geis, and Vergun 1995), but Principal

Indicators declines to do so until researchers have explored the transcript data in more detail.

Given the complexities of determining enrollment intensity from transcript data, analysts should

follow Carroll's approach or one of the modified versions cited above.

Institutional Control

Principal Indicators also declined to use a second construct that has been a staple of

postsecondary analyses: level x institutional control (4-year, 2-year, less-than-2-year by public,

private not-for-profit, and private for-profit), principally as a consequence of the complexity of

multi-institutional attendance. The data sources for all three grade-cohort longitudinal studies

include this information, along with a modified Carnegie typology of 34 classes of institutions,19 a

seven-value special mission institution variable,20 and the five-value selectivity variable used in

tables 1.4, 4.7, 5.3, and 6.3, for example. It is possible, then, to establish a set of grids to describe

dimensions of institutional characteristics, for example, Control by Carnegie Type or Control by

Special Mission by Selectivity. 

One-third of the NELS:88/2000 postsecondary cohort was involved in inter-sectoral attendance

patterns (see table 4.2), hence the mapping of student movement across any of these grids is a

challenge—made more complex (but potentially revealing) in the NELS:88/2000 by the inclusion

of variables that attach credits to each type of institution attended by the student. Ratios of credits

from community colleges to credits from 4-year colleges and credits from selective institutions to

all undergraduate credits are possible in the NELS:88/2000 data set, and these, along with the

mapping of mobility, may ultimately prove more enlightening than the traditional level-by-control

presentation.
98

Financial Aid

While the financing of postsecondary education may affect a student’s academic history,

Principal Indicators declined to use any of the financial aid variables in the NELS:88/2000 for

the following reasons:

First, the extant data files provide bivariate-coded student responses to questions on the modes of

financial aid (grants, loans, college work-study, campus job, parental borrowing) only through the

third follow-up survey in 1994, that is, given the modal year of postsecondary entry, only for the

first 2 years of college. These questions were not asked in the fourth follow-up survey in 2000.

Second, while the restricted file for the fourth follow-up includes 11 variables drawn from the

National Student Loan Data System (NSLDS), the range of postsecondary beginning and end

dates and last status date on the loans identified in the NSLDS go back to 1966—nearly a decade

before anyone in the NELS:88/2000 cohort was born. In other words, there are erroneous data in

the NSLDS.

The information on financing postsecondary education available in the NELS:88/2000 is thus

very limited, and not comparable to the information available in the two previous longitudinal

studies (for example, the HS&B/sophomore cohort data set includes a separate Pell Grant file, and

the NLS-72 includes elaborate though self-reported information on types and amounts of

grants/scholarships and loans gathered at five points between 1973 and 1986). 

For information about the role of financial aid in students’ postsecondary histories, researchers

and policymakers are better served by the most recent Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS 1996/01).

Creating New Variables

Users of the restricted CD-ROMs for the NLS-72, HS& B/sophomore cohort (NCES 2000-194),

and NELS:88/2000 ( NCES 2003-402) have an example of a "score" developed for these

transcript samples; and it is one they can manipulate whenever they disagree with its assumptions. 

For example, there is a variable focusing on community college attendance patterns that employs

an if-then-else logic. At each step, whatever group of students remains from the previous steps is

sorted by criteria that include "more than 10 credits from a community college." (See tables 4.3

and 4.4, which draw on this logic). Some analysts might wish to use a 12 credit threshold. The

program is set up so that they can substitute their preference. On the NELS:88/2000 CD, all the

programs that generate the variables used in Principal Indicators (as well as others) are provided

in a supplementary folder. The programs are written in SAS, but can easily be translated into the

terms of other statistical packages such as SPSS and STATA.
99

Major Learning

There are hundreds of tentative conclusions and hypotheses that can be generated from the data

presented in Principal Indicators. But there is a short list of major learnings that the tables in

these pages reveal, and they are worth contemplating in light of contemporary assumptions about

the dynamics of student progress after secondary school and traditional lines of research inquiry. 

In order of consideration above, here are 10 such conclusions:

1. Despite a 50 percent expansion of the population in the system of postsecondary

education over the past quarter century, bachelor’s degree completion rates for

traditional-age students have been stable (tables 2.1 and 2.2).

2. Time-to-degree for traditional-age students who earned bachelor’s degrees has not

changed over the past quarter century, even though there has been a small increase

in average credits earned (table 2.3).

3. Gaps in basic access to postsecondary education by race/ethnicity have narrowed,

but gaps remain wide by socioeconomic status (table 2.4).

4. When one looks carefully at the nature and extent of participation in postsecondary

education, “access” rates are less than what they seem (table 2.5).

5. Student mobility, geographic and inter-institutional, has increased in volume and

complexity, presenting challenges to enrollment management and institutional

accountability (tables 1.5 and 4.1 - 4.3).

6. Not all noncompleters are the same. Some demonstrate considerable momentum

toward degrees. Others come to postsecondary education with weak academic

backgrounds and wind up as incidental students (tables 3.2 and 3.3).

7. Transfer from a community college to a 4-year college, with sufficient time at the

community college prior to transfer, has consistently proven to be an effective path

to bachelor’s degree completion (table 4.4).

8. College credits earned prior to high school graduation in dual-enrollment

programs, along with credit-by-examination, reduce time-to-degree (table 4.7).

9. Increases in the study of higher levels of mathematics in high school have mixed

effects on participation in mathematics coursework in college (table 5.6).

10. Increases in the proportion of grades that were nonpenalty Withdrawals and NoCredit-Repeats should be of particular concern, as they affect access and course

availability (e.g., a student repeating a course blocks another student from sitting

in the same seat) (table 6.1).

The reader is invited to add to this list so that this document, in combination with its companion,

The Empirical Curriculum: Changes in Postsecondary Course-Taking, 1972-2000, becomes a

source for future research and discussions of the strengths, lapses, and potential of our system of

postsecondary education. 
100

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101

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APPENDIX A

Principal Features of the NCES Grade-Cohort Longitudinal Studies
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21Curtin, T.R., Ingels, S.J., Wu, S., and Heuer, R. (2002). National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988:

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109

APPENDIX A

Principal Features of the NCES Grade Cohort Longitudinal Studies 

There are four grade-cohort longitudinal studies designed and conducted by the National Center

for Education Statistics. Three of these studies have been completed. They are:

• National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS-72), which

started with a cohort of Seniors in the spring of 1972, and concluded in 1986.

• High School & Beyond, which started with a cohort of Seniors in 1980, and

concluded in 1986; and started with another cohort of Sophomores in 1980

(HS&B), and concluded in 1993.

• National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, which was initiated with an 8th

grade class in 1988 (NELS:88), and concluded in 2000.

The data for the above studies are available in both public release and restricted (license required)

form on CD, with electronic code books (ECBs) listing all variables, with descriptions and

distributions.

The fourth study, the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), started with a sample of

20,000 10th grade students in the spring of 2002, and is currently in progress.

Curtin, Ingels, Wu and Heuer 2002 offer a figure with a temporal presentation of the four

longitudinal studies,21 highlighting their component and comparison points. Each of the studies

begins with a national probability sample involving a stratified sample of schools and a random

sample of students within the target grade in those schools. In some cases, the samples are

refreshed at later points in the longitudinal study (NELS:88 in 1990 and 1992), and in some cases

augmented at a later point (NLS-72 in 1973).

The important points are that each of these longitudinal studies includes a great deal more

information than what is used in Principal Indicators, and that not all of them are comparable in

terms of the depth with which various topics are explored. The surveys of the NLS-72 were

focused wholly on students, whereas those of the subsequent longitudinal studies included

parents, teachers, and secondary school administrators. The cognitive tests administered in the

12th grade to the NLS-72 were administered in the 10th and 12th grades to subsequent cohorts,

thus enabling measures of intellectual growth. Labor market histories were far more detailed in

the NLS-72 and HS&B/Sophomore cohort than they were for the NELS:88/2000. Military

records exist for the NLS-72 but not for any subsequent study. The shift from paper-and-pencil

survey response forms to computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) in the 1990s constricted

the range of questions asked (e.g., there was no time to ask students about reasons for changing
110

majors, reasons for transferring from one college to another, and degrees of satisfaction with

different aspects of postsecondary experience, whereas the NLS-72 paper survey forms covered

these topics in some depth).

Nonetheless, the archives of these data sets are the richest we have to explore the nature of

secondary and postsecondary education and its consequences in the early adult life histories of 

Americans over the past 30 years.
111

APPENDIX B

Decision Rules for Data Entry:

NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files
112

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113

APPENDIX B: 

Decision Rules for Data Entry, NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript File

For the NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Transcript Files, the procedures used to transform

paper transcripts from a wide variety of postsecondary institutions into course-level and degreelevel data files include monitoring the receipt of transcripts from the primary contractor,

identifying missing transcripts or data, retrieving missing information, entering course and

transcript information, coding courses using the 1999 taxonomy of The New College Course Map

and Transcript Files (2nd edition), checking the quality of data entry and coding, and preparing

the paper documents for archival storage. This appendix shares the instructions to data entry

personnel responsible for entering basic course and transcript information. 

Instructions for Primary Data Entry: the COURSE File

During the 1-year course of primary data entry, there were a total of 32 data entry clerks,

each of whom was trained in the basic protocols prior to beginning work. The data entry clerks’

principal responsibility was the Course file, with each completed file given an identifying number

by school (i.e., S+the 6-digit IPEDSID). Nontraditional transcript schools were entered by the

project director in the same manner.

EXCERPTS FROM INSTRUCTIONS TO DATA ENTRY STAFF

Variables for the COURSE File

Data Entry Rules/Guidance:

• A line entry contains values (including missing) for all 10 variables listed below and for a

specific instance of course-taking.

• Within TID [Transcript ID], order line entries by TERMDATE, starting with the earliest

entry.

• Each line entry must have a sequential CRSENUM following the order of TERMDATEs.

• Line entries and CRSENUMs include transfer courses and blocks of transfer credits.

• Enter the transfer courses/credits first. If no specific dates are attached to the courses, use

1 month prior to the first TERMDATE for the student at the institution whose transcript

you are looking at. For example, if the student’s first real course was taken in 1992.67

(September 1992), then the transcript block would be dated 1992.58 (August 1992).

• Truly missing information in variable field receives a value of -1.
114

 Maximum

Variable Order Type Length Position Comments

TID 1 Num 6 1 Transcript ID; always 6 digits

IPEDSID 2 Num 6 8 Institution Code; always 6 digits 

CRSENUM 3 Num 4 15 Sequential (01,02,03...) Each line 

entry has a unique CRSEID

TERMDATE 4 Num 4 20 See description, e.g., 1992.67

TERMTYPE 5 Num 1 27 [See attached list of values]

CRSEID 6 Char 8 29 If indicated, this is the catalog code

for the course at the institution,

e.g., COMPSCI 112, ENG452. It 

may not be indicated–in whichcase

the field is missing (-1). Try not to 

 use more than 7 spaces. 

CRSENAME 7 Char 30 38 Literal title of course. Be careful of

abbreviations. The title has to make

sense to the course coder. Sometimes,

the institution abbreviates in obscure

ways. Save these for Problem

Resolution Sessions.

CRSECODE 8 Num 6 66 CCM Code, the most critical entry

in the whole collection. You will 

 not enter this code. Instead, you

will put a period (.) at position 66.

CRSECRED 9 Num 4 73 Attempted (not earned) credits for

course as indicated on the transcript. 

Sometimes these are expressed in

clock-hours. Some courses carry 0

credits. There are special instructions

for situations involving No-CreditRepeats and nonadditive credits in

remedial courses.

CRSGRADA 10 Char 4 78 Literal grade, letter or number. 

Again, there are special instructions

for repeats, credits-by-examination,

transfer courses, and other odd cases.

Follow instructions on the sheet, “The

Only Grades We Use.”
115

Elaboration was provided on the variables TERMDATE, TERMTYPE, CRSECRED, and

CRSGRADE. All months were expressed in fractions of 1/12th of a calendar year, with January

set to 0:

January .00 February .08 March .17

April .25 May .33 June .42

July .50 August .58 September .67

October .75 November .83 December .91

The reason for adopting this system was to enhance the accuracy of measuring time-to-degree

across Y2K. The particular applications of these dates to the different TERMTYPES are included

in the following guidance to the data entry staff :

TERMTYPE:

Date Rules

1 SEMESTER Fall = September (.67)

Spring = January (.00)

Summer = June (.42)

2 QUARTER Fall = September (.67)

Winter = January (.00)

Spring = April (.25)

Summer = July (.50)

3 TRIMESTER Depends on the school.

 For 4-1-4 Fall = September (.67)

Winter = January (.00)

Spring = February (.08)

 For 4-3-4 Fall = September (.67)

Winter = February (.08)

Spring = May (.33)

4 CLOCK HOUR Whatever month it says, but consult

project director if all dates are the same or

if the indication is of an ending date, not

a start date

5 EXAMINATION If dated, use the date

If undated, use one month prior to the 

student’s first term of courses 

6 SPECIAL Whatever month it says

7 TRANSFER If dated, use the date

If undated, use one month prior to the

student’s first term of courses
116

8 STUDY ABROAD If dated, use the date

If undated, look for a notation of when the

student was on leave: use the front-end

date of the leave period

9 GED/ADULT BASIC [the entire record must be comprised of

such coursework; every term type will then

be = 9; dates are whatever it says]

As for credits and grades, most institutions submitted a guidance or “poop sheet” along with the

transcripts. Data entry staff were asked to read these guidances, and then to observe

standardization protocols contained in the following:

BEFORE ENTERING DATA FROM A GIVEN SCHOOL, PLEASE READ THE GUIDE TO

INTERPRETING TRANSCRIPTS THAT MOST SCHOOLS ENCLOSE WITH THE

TRANSCRIPTS. THIS GUIDE WILL TELL YOU HOW TO TRANSLATE GRADES. 

WE USE ALL OF THE FOLLOWING GRADES:

Exceptions on

Credits Credits

Standard Letter Grades

A/B/C/D with + and - Attempted Remedial = 0

F, E Attempted Phys Ed if 0

Labs if listed 0

Number Grades

4-point scale (0-4) Attempted [same as for 

letter grades]

0-100 Attempted [same as for letter

grades]

Other Letter Grades

H, HP, P, S in cases where that is the grading system (usually in med schools)

W, WP, WF Attempted [same as for

letter grades]

AU (audit) 0 

NG (ungraded courses) Attempted [same as letter]

P (pass) Whatever it says [same as letter]

CR (credit) Whatever it says [same as letter]

NP (no pass–examination only) 0 

TR (transfer) Whatever it says

S, U Attempted [same as letter]

NCR (no credit repeat) 0

DR (drop, as during drop/add period)0

I (incomplete–unresolved) Attempted [same as letter]

IP (in process–Year 2000 only) Whatever it says

WE DO NOT USE ANY OTHER GRADES—no Xs, Zs, Qs, Ms, etc.
117

FURTHER GUIDANCE ON GRADES/CREDITS

1. Look at the local course numbering system to assist in judgments on nonadditive credits

for remedial/developmental courses. If the local number has 3 digits and begins with a 0,

the chances are high that the credits are nonadditive. Hence, we enter 0 for the credits. 

The one course in this category on which we defer to local judgment and custom is

Intermediate Algebra. In many community colleges, the credits for this course are

additive. 

2. Incompletes. Look down the transcript to determine, first, whether the I grade was

resolved. If so, enter the final grade—not the I—at the position of the first entry for that

course. Do not enter the course twice.

3. IP (In Progress) with dates before 2000. Sometimes, you are looking at a full-year or

multi-term course. Determine whether the course appears again, with the same local

number, in the next term. If so, replace IP with the final grade for the course as recorded

in the next (or penultimate) term. If there is no resolution, the IP will become a penalty

grade.

4. NCRs. Repeats are sometimes indicated with an asterisk, an “R” in the transcript margin,

or another notation. If the transcript poop sheet provides guidance on Repeat policy (i.e.,

how many times a course can be repeated without penalty), follow the poop sheet. If there

is no guidance, we use NCR (with 0 credits) only on the first occasion of course-taking. 

Whatever happens after that, happens.

5. Ws, WPs, WFs. The only times we allow 0 credits for any kind of withdrawal other than

a drop (DR) are for remedial/developmental courses, phys ed activities courses, music

performance courses, and other noncredit phenomena. If the school uses 0 credits for a

regular credit-bearing course with a W of any kind, we replace that 0 with the default

number of credits for that type of course according to that school’s academic calendar

(semester, quarter, trimester). For example, a W in a US History survey course in a

semester school gets 3 credits. Why do we do this? Because we want to be able to

determine what proportion of initially enrolled credits students withdraw from.

6. Resolution of out-of-scope grades (e.g., V, Q, etc.) with no poop sheet guidance. Look

at the difference between credits attempted and credits earned. If there are 0 credits

earned for such a grade then it’s either some kind of W, a no credit (NC) situation, or a

penalty grade. The kind of course will tell you whether it is potentially no credit (NC). 

Look at the GPA for that term, where stated (usually, term GPAs are stated). That will

help you determine whether the V or Q or whatever is a penalty grade. If so, change the V

or Q to a U. 

7. Examination terms (Term Type=5). If no letter grade is used (as in the case of Advance

Placement exams or CLEPs), we use CR—provided that credits are awarded, and NC

when no credits are awarded. The major exceptions involve the state basic skills tests for

public institutions in Florida (CLAST), Texas (TASP), and Georgia (RTP). In those

instances, it’s simply Pass (P) or No Pass (NP).
118

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119

APPENDIX C

Technical Issues
120

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121

APPENDIX C

Technical Issues

Accuracy of Estimates and Standard Errors

There are different kinds of statistics in Principal Indicators, but all of them are estimates derived

from samples.

Two kinds of error occur when samples are at issue: errors in sampling itself, particularly when

relatively small sub-populations (for example, American Indians) are involved; and non-sampling

errors. Even in surveys as large as the three grade cohort longitudinal studies used in Principal

Indicators, sampling errors can affect estimates of statistical significance.

Non-sampling errors are more serious matters. A good example of a non-sampling error would

be the fact that transcripts are missing for some students in all three grade cohort studies. The

transcripts are missing either because the student did not tell the interviewer that he/she attended

the school (and there were no transfer credits on another transcript to identify the school), the

school refused to send the transcript, the school could not find the transcript, or the information

sent by the school was not really a transcript. In this case, we can mitigate the effect of missing

transcripts by differential weighting of the population, and, indeed, for both the High School &

Beyond/Sophomore and NELS:88/2000 files, the analyst is given a choice of weights, one of

which is confined to students with complete records. Weighting, though, will not address the

panoply of non-sampling errors.

The effects of sampling and non-sampling errors ripple through data bases. To judge the accuracy

of any analysis, one needs to explicate and judge these effects. When the unit of analysis is the

student, this is a straightforward issue because the original samples in the longitudinal studies

consisted of students. When questions are asked about highest degree earned (table 2.1),

undergraduate credits earned (table 2.3), multi-institutional attendance patterns (table 4.2), or

undergraduate grade point average (table 6.1), the questions are about nonrepetitive behaviors of

the students who were sampled. One does not have two highest degrees earned or two

undergraduate GPAs.

When the unit of analysis is an instance of the distribution of grades within institutional types

(table 6.3) or within course categories (table 6.5), the statistical issues are not so straightforward. 

While these units of analysis involve student behavior, that behavior is usually repetitive. A

student may make five attempts at degrees in two different fields in three different types of

colleges. A student may take courses in the same category, for example, electrical engineering, in

two different institutions and receive different numbers of credits and different grades on each

occasion. Ten—and only ten—students out of 9,000 may take a dozen courses in the same broad

category, for example, chiropractic, and receive grades of ‘A’ for all of them. All these cases

render the tasks of weighting the data and determining its accuracy more difficult. In fact, these

cases illustrate the differences between analysis of transcripts and analysis of survey responses.
122

The descriptive comparisons in Principal Indicators dealing with nonrepetitive student behaviors

require invocation of the “Student’s t” statistic to determine whether the difference between two

independent estimates is significant. The formula for computing "Students’ t" values is: 

 __________

t = (P1 - P2)÷ % (se1

2

 + se2

2

)

where P1 and P2 are the estimates to be compared and se1 and se2 are the corresponding standard

errors. In this case, if t> 1.96, one has a statistically significant difference at p<.05, a standard

marker. The formula becomes more complex, however, for multiple comparisons among

categories of an independent variable such as race/ethnicity. For multiple comparisons, the

critical value for t rises depending on the number of comparisons that can be made in the family

of the independent variable. For race/ethnicity presented in 5 categories, there are10 possible

comparisons, so the significance level of each test must be p<.05/10 or p<.005. To determine the

significance level of t values in any comparison of means or proportions, the result should be

matched against standard published tables of significance levels for two-tailed hypothesis testing.

When estimates are not independent, a covariance term must be added to the Student’s t formula

 _____________________

t = (P1 - P2)÷ % (se1

2

 + se2

2

) -2(r)se1se2

where r is the correlation between the two estimates. The determination of correlations requires a

statistical software package such as SAS or SPSS and the invocation of proper weights for the

comparison.

Because none of the three grade cohort longitudinal studies used in Principal Indicators was

based on a simple random sample of students, the technique for estimating sampling error

involves a more complex approach known as the Taylor series method. To produce Taylor series

standard errors, the estimates presented in Principal Indicators used AM, a program developed by

Jon Cohen and Associates at the American Institutes for Research under contract to the National

Center for Education Statistics. With the exceptions of the standard errors provided in Appendix

B, Principal Indicators placed the standard errors in the tables themselves, so that readers

familiar with the ‘Students’ t’ and its variations can quickly determine statistical significance of

the estimates.

Flags and Weights

Each of the grade cohort studies used in Principal Indicators carries a complex set of flags and

weights to mark the populations for which estimates are to be generated. The selection of these

flags and weights is extremely important for both the accuracy and meaningfulness of estimates.

For purposes of the topics covered in Principal Indicators, the oldest of the data sets, the Class of

1972, is the least complicated. One weight was developed for the postsecondary transcript

sample. This weight was based on the 4th follow-up survey sample (in 1979) when students were

asked what postsecondary institutions they had attended up to that point, when they attended,

what degrees they had earned, and so forth. After the transcripts were gathered in 1984 and the
123

first postsecondary transcript files developed, a flag was added to limit the population to those for

whom transcripts were received. The analyses of Class of 1972 data in Principal Indicators use

WT1 and set INPETS=1. A separate flag for 12th grade status in 1972 is not necessary because

everyone in the Class of 1972 was in the 12th grade in 1972.

For the postsecondary transcript sample of the High School & Beyond/Sophomore cohort, the

process was more complex. Using the weights for the first follow-up survey (1982, the scheduled

12th grade year for this cohort), three postsecondary transcript weights were developed. The first

weight was based on a ratio of the sum of weights for all students in the 1982 panel who

subsequently (in surveys of 1984, 1986 or 1992) claimed to have attended a postsecondary

institution to the sum of weights for those for whom a transcript validating the claim was

subsequently received. The ratio was then modified by factors derived from the stratification

cells in the 1982 survey design to create multipliers that were applied to the raw weights for the

students for whom transcripts were received or for whom postsecondary attendance was imputed

from survey story-line characteristics. This is a generous formulation for all likely postsecondary

participants.

The second High School & Beyond/Sophomore weight involved the same procedure as the first

but applied a more restrictive ratio to those students for whom a true postsecondary transcript was

received. These students are more than “likely” participants: they are “known participants.” The

third weight followed the same procedure as the second, but confined the population to only those

students with complete postsecondary records (i.e., no missing transcripts). This weight is used

in analyses of credit production and grades, since complete records are necessary for the analysis

of both these features of student academic history. These weights are labeled PSEWT1, PSEWT2,

and PSEWT3. 

To accompany these weights for the comparisons in Principal Indicators that hold the population

to students who were in the 12th grade in 1982, a special flag, SENRFLAG, was constructed from

variables in the High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort that described student status in1982. 

Using the conventional flag for participation in the 1982 cohort sample would be insufficient and

not wholly accurate, as that would include students who graduated early from high school in

1981, for example. By the opposite side of the same token, we found a number of students who

were labeled “early graduates” and thus candidates for exclusion from a 12th grade flag whose

high school graduation date was listed as 1982. These students were thus included in the

population with SENRFLAG=1.

For all calculations of High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort data in Principal Indicators,

SENRFLAG=1, and the appropriate PSE weight invoked.

The weights and flags for the NELS:88/2000 are more complex, still, because the cohort,

established in the 8th grade, was “refreshed” twice: first, to be representative of the census of 10th

graders in 1990, and second, to be representative of the census of 12th graders in 1992. The

weights deriving from the 1992 12th grade refreshing are at the core of weights subsequently

developed for the postsecondary transcript sample. The same three postsecondary weight types
124

developed for the High School & Beyond/Sophomores were employed here, but in combination

with the 12th grade (2nd Follow-Up survey, or F2) weight and the student’s presence in the final

(2000) survey panel, F4. In addition, a set of weights based on the NELS high school transcripts

in combination with the three postsecondary weight types was also developed to be invoked when

questions of the relationship between secondary school variables derived from high school

transcripts and postsecondary variables derived from postsecondary transcripts are at issue.

The NELS:88/2000 weights used in Principal Indicators are:

F4F2P1WT For all likely postsecondary participants who were 12th graders in 1992

 *F4F2P2WT For all known postsecondary participants who were 12th graders in 1992

F4F2P3WT For all postsecondary participants with complete records who were 12th

graders in 1992

F4F2H2PW For all known postsecondary participants who were 12th graders in 1992

for whom high school transcript records are available (for example, in all

cases where academic curriculum intensity quintile is used as an

independent variable in tables 3.2 - 3.4)

F4F2H3PW For all postsecondary participants with complete records who were 12th

graders in 1992 for whom high school transcript records are available

(for example, in table 5.6)

F4F2PNWT For all students in the 1992, 1994, and 2000 panels, whether or not they

were 12th graders in 1992 (this weight is used only when questions of

postsecondary access for the entire cohort are at issue in tables 2.6-2.9)

* Most frequently used weight.

As in the case of the High School & Beyond/Sophomore cohort, a special flag was developed for

12th graders in 1992. The existing flag on the NELS:88/2000 files excluded over 300 students

who, in fact, were awarded high school diplomas in the spring of 1992. These students are

included in the flag, GRADE12A, used in Principal Indicators.

The weighted Ns for all samples used in a table are provided in the notes to the table. Even if the

same weight and flag is used on two tables, the weighted Ns may differ slightly because missing

values in a particular variable are excluded from the calculations.

.
125

APPENDIX D

Standard Errors for Selected Tables
126

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127

Table D-1. Standard errors for table 2.1: Highest degree earned by 12th graders in the 

 three grade-cohort longitudinal studies who earned more than 10 

 postsecondary credits, by gender and race/ethnicity

Percent of students whose highest degree was . . .

 Bachelor’s

 plus First At Percent of 

 Bach- some Prof/ least total

None Certif Associate elor’s Grad Masters Doct Bachelor’s in cohort

All:

Class of 1972 0.59 0.28 0.37 0.60 0.22 0.27 0.21 0.62

Class of 1982 0.86 0.49 0.49 0.77 0.41 0.35 0.21 0.93

Class of 1992 1.02 0.53 0.56 0.93 0.46 0.35 0.14 1.12

Men:

Class of 1972 0.80 0.30 0.47 0.81 0.29 0.37 0.37 0.85 0.70

Class of 1982 1.20 0.65 0.63 1.16 0.57 0.46 0.37 1.33 0.83

Class of 1992 1.63 0.68 0.88 1.37 0.72 0.49 0.14 1.59 0.98

Women:

Class of 1972 0.82 0.44 0.54 0.78 0.31 0.38 0.16 0.86 0.70

Class of 1982 1.33 0.72 0.71 0.98 0.56 0.47 0.25 1.17 0.83

Class of 1992 1.20 0.77 0.76 1.17 0.61 0.57 0.15 1.36 0.98

White:

Class of 1972 0.62 0.30 0.39 0.63 0.24 0.29 0.23 0.67 0.55

Class of 1982 0.94 0.56 0.55 0.88 0.49 0.41 0.24 1.04 0.79

Class of 1992 1.05 0.61 0.63 1.02 0.53 0.45 0.17 1.18 1.28

African-American:

Class of 1972 2.03 0.80 1.15 1.54 0.40 0.91 0.53 1,87 0.47

Class of 1982 2.11 1.37 1.24 1.55 0.66 0.60 0.43 1.83 0.64

Class of 1992 3.96 1.52 1.79 3.40 1.15 0.58 0.04 3.67 0.88

Latino:

Class of 1972 2.58 1.52 1.82 2.11 1.28 0.71 0.59 2,43 0.28

Class of 1982 2.92 0.82 1.34 2.01 0.43 0.18 0.14 2.47 0.33

Class of 1992 3.44 1.53 1.98 1.85 1.88 0.56 0.05 2.78 0.88

Asian: Class of 1972 4.06 0.73 1.95 4.24 2.14 2.56 2.15 4.30 0.13

Class of 1982 3.32 1.35 1.72 3.12 1.51 1.60 2.79 3.31 0.19

Class of 1992 3.72 1.68 3.47 3.50 1.44 0.69 2.50 4.11 0.15

SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort (NCES 2000-194), and NELS:88/2000 (NCES 2003-402).
128

Table D-2. Standard errors for table 2.2: Highest degree earned by 12th graders in the 

 three grade-cohort longitudinal studies who earned more than 10 postsecondary 

 credits and any credits from a 4-year college, by gender and race/ethnicity

Percent of students whose highest degree was . . .

 Bachelor’s

 plus First At Percent of 

 Bach- some Prof/ least total

None Certif Associate elor’s Grad Masters Doct Bachelor’s in cohort

All:

Class of 1972 0.62 0.14 0.27 0.67 0.30 0.36 0.29 0.66

Class of 1982 0.94 0.25 0.56 0.93 0.58 0.49 0.31 1.00

Class of 1992 0.94 0.40 0.55 1.01 0.61 0.47 0.26 1.08

Men:

Class of 1972 0.88 0.14 0.36 0.95 0.39 0.49 0.49 0.90 0.83

Class of 1982 1.26 0.33 0.61 1.37 0.80 0.64 0.52 1.36 0.99

Class of 1992 1.58 0.40 0.78 1.55 0.95 0.66 0.26 1.65 1.06

Women:

Class of 1972 0.90 0.26 0.42 0.95 0.44 0.53 0.23 0.95 0.83

Class of 1982 1.26 0.37 0.62 1.26 0.80 0.69 0.37 1.35 0.99

Class of 1992 1.04 0.66 0.77 1.34 0.80 0.63 0.40 1.32 1.06

White:

Class of 1972 0.64 0.15 0.28 0.73 0.32 0.39 0.31 0.68 0.58

Class of 1982 0.99 0.29 0.51 1.05 0.67 0.56 0.34 1.07 0.79

Class of 1992 1.02 0.48 0.55 1.14 0.68 0.58 0.22 1.15 1.18

African-American:

Class of 1972 2.63 0.47 1.18 2.16 0.59 1.29 0.77 2.52 0.50

Class of 1982 2.75 0.22 0.91 2.45 1.08 0.95 0.70 2.83 0.64

Class of 1992 3.71 1.51 1.46 4.09 1.67 0.85 0.28 4.04 0.86

Latino:

Class of 1972 3.51 0.88 1.85 3.53 2.25 1.24 1.05 3.98 0.25

Class of 1982 3.78 1.30 2.43 3.86 1.32 0.83 1.09 4.11 0.34

Class of 1992 4.10 0.55 2.81 2.97 3.11 0.98 0.39 3.81 0.71

Asian:

Class of 1972 3.24 0.44 1.64 5.00 2.71 3.26 2.64 3.53 0.18

Class of 1982 2.63 0.58 1.75 3.88 1.90 2.10 3.54 2.87 0.19

Class of 1992 4.06 0.17 4.11 4.16 1.75 0.84 2.99 4.80 0.54

SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort (NCES 2000-194), and NELS:88/2000 (NCES 2003-402).
129

Table D-3. Standard errors for table 2.3: Time to bachelor's degree and average

 undergraduate credits earned by 12th graders in the three grade-cohort

 longitudinal studies, truncating all three samples at 8.5 years following the 

 modal high school graduation date

 Time-to-degree Average total undergraduate credits

 

 Class Class Class Class Class Class

 of 1972 of 1982 of 1992 of 1972 of 1982 of 1992 

All .019 .026 .028 .355 .399 .440

Men .027 .036 .043 .479 .568 .596

 

Women .024 .033 .035 .483 .513 .629

White .020 .028 .030 .368 .439 .481

African-American .067 .088 .133 1.25 1.05 1.99

Latino .170 .087 .139 2.83 1.88 1.95

Asian .113 .094 .193 2.56 1.15 1.55

Selected Major:

Business .042 .047 .073 .697 .615 .740

Education .037 .086 .084 .759 1.48 1.06

Engineering .077 .080 .088 1.62 1.50 1.62

Humanities .064 .083 .143 1.47 1.32 1.45

Arts .069 .101 .141 1.56 1.73 1.49

Social sciences .042 .071 .059 .597 1.02 .945

Life sciences .055 .071 .061 1.17 1.54 1.22

Health sciences .069 .081 .080 1.60 1.75 1.55

 and services

Physical sciences .116 .165 .163 2.36 1.88 2.19

SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics: National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of

1972, High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort (NCES 2000-194), and NELS:88/2000 (NCES 2003-402).
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131

GLOSSARY

Variables Used, in Order of First Appearance in the Tables
132

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22 Excludes institutions attended prior to high school graduation, institutions attended in the summer

between high school graduation and fall college entry (unless the student attended the same institution in both

periods), and “false starts.” A false start is a case where the student enrolls in a school but withdraws from/drops all

courses during the first term of attendance only to turn up in another school at a later point in time with a credit

accumulating record. The second school in this example is the “true” first institution of attendance.

23 A student who, in the 10th grade, identified a language other than English spoken at home as his/her

native language, or in the 12th grade identified a language other than English spoken at home as the language with

which he/she communicated with the mother in the household all or most of the time, was flagged as non-English

dominant.

133

GLOSSARY

Variables Used in Principal Indicators, 

in Order of First Appearance in the Tables

Most of the variables listed below are described in detail in the text accompanying the tables, and

the reader is referred to the table indicated. Where further details or explanations are necessary,

footnotes are added. Detailed descriptions of the construction of all variables can be found in the

descriptive windows of the Electronic Code Books (ECBs) on the CDs for each of the data sets.

Description Variable Name/Data Sets Tables

Student’s true first institution of REFINST in NELS, HS&B/So 1.1

attendance.22 with 7 aggregate Carnegie types.

TRIFA in NLS-72, with 3 values Not Used

 

Student’s true first term date of REFDATE in NELS, TRUDATE 1.1

attendance: the first month of the in HS&B/So. PSBEG in NLS-72 

first term at REFINST only if after May of 1972

Census Division Location of PHSDIV in NELS and HS&B/So 1.2

Student’s High School (9 Values)

Second Language Background23 LANGDOM in NELS 1.2

NNSE in HS&B/So

Race/Ethnicity RACE4 in NELS & HS&B/So 1.2

NEWRACE in NLS-72

Socioeconomic Status Quintile SESQUINT in NELS, HS&B/So 1.3

and NLS-72. SES percentiles were

generated from the Duncan SEI

scale, then turned into quintiles,

with the 81st-100th percentile set

to high
24Permutation (4 values) of the state in which the student graduated from high school, the state of the

student’s true first institution of postsecondary attendance and the state in which the student was residing at the time

of the 2000 computer-assisted telephone interview.

25Institutional selectivity in all three studies has five values: highly selective, selective, nonselective, open

door, and not ratable. The first three of these values were based on the selectivity cells developed by the

Cooperative Institutional Research Project (CIRP) at UCLA for its annual survey (since 1966) of entering freshmen. 

Community colleges and area vocational-technical institutes (AVTIs) were assigned the value for “open door.” 

Theological seminaries, music conservatories, and sub-baccalaureate vocational schools were “not ratable.”

26For both the High School & Beyond/Sophomore Cohort and the NELS:88/2000, this number includes

“unrequested transcript schools,” that is, schools the student did not indicate attending but from which transfer

credits were recorded on other received transcripts.

134

Pattern of State Residence at Three STATEPAT in NELS 1.4

Points in Educational History24

Highest Degree Earned HDEG in NELS and NLS-72 1.4

NHDEG in HS&B/So (9 values)

Selectivity of 1st Institution of REFSELCT in NELS 1.4

Attendance25 (5 values)

Number of Postsecondary TRANRCUG in NELS 1.5

Institutions26 Attended as TRANREQ2 in HS&B/So

Undergraduate NUMTRANS in NLS-72

Number of States in Which STATEUG in NELS; 1.5

Student Attended as Undergraduate NUMSTAT2 in HS&B/So Not Used

Degree Earned from a School DIFFIPED in NELS 1.5

Other than the First Institution Attended DIFFICE in HS&B/So Not Used

Degree Earned in a State Other Than DIFSTATE in NELS 1.5

the State of the First Institution Attended

Residence in 2000 in the Same State STATBACH in NELS 1.6

as the State in Which BA/BS was Awarded 

Undergraduate Credits Earned at TCRED4YR in NELS 2.2

4-Year Colleges CRD4YR in HS&B/So and

NLS-72
27In all three cohorts, students with incomplete undergraduate records are excluded, as are outlying cases

where time-to-degree is calculated at less than 2.5 calendar years with a credit total that does not justify the

calculation. For the NELS:88/2000 when there was a gap of more than 4 months between the last month of the term

in which the student qualified for the degree and the date the degree was actually conferred, the qualifying month

was used as the degree date. 

28All three variables include students who did not enter a postsecondary institution, and these variables are

thus used in estimates of “access.”

29Distinguishes between students whose TRUDATE falls within 6 months of high school graduation, those

for whom it falls between the 7th and 18th month following high school graduation, and those for whom it falls after

the 18th month.

135

Time to Bachelor’s Degree BACHTIM2 in NELS 2.3

(elapsed time from REFDATE to BACHTIME in HS&B/So

QUALDAT4 in NELS; from BATIME in NLS-72

TRUDATE to DEGDAT4 in HS&B/So,

and from PSBEG to DEGDAT5 in

Class of 1972)27

Entered at Least One Postsecondary ALLHDEG in NELS 2.4

Institution28 HSBSTAT in HS&B/So

NLSSTAT in NLS-72

Macro Student Postsecondary History STUHIST in NELS 2.5

 (9 values)

High School Graduation Date PETSHSDT in NELS 2.7

HSGRDAT2 in HS&B/So

High School Diploma Type PETSGTYP in NELS 2.7

‘Credit Attainment’ Account of CREDRET in NELS and 3.1

Student Accomplishment HS&B/So

Had Children by Year of H.S. CHLD1992 in NELS 3.2

Graduation CHILD82 in HSB/So Not used

Urbanicity of Student’s High School PHSURBAN in NELS, 3.2

(urban, suburban, rural) HS&B/So, and NLS-72 Not used

Delay of Entry to Postsecondary DELAYTRI in NELS 3.2

Education Trichotomized29 and HS&B/So
30In all three cohorts, noncontinuous enrollment was defined as a stop-out period of two semesters (or their

equivalent in quarters), either consecutively or as separate spells, summer terms not included. The NELS:88/2000

added a separate value in the variable for such stop-out periods that occurred after three academic years of

continuous enrollment.

31The NELS:88/2000 version of this variable describes the level of education being pursued in the final

year of the study: graduate degree, post-baccalaureate coursework, bachelor’s degree, associate’s degree,

undergraduate vocational coursework, and undergraduate coursework of no particular description.

32The academic curriculum intensity variable starts with the highest observed level of curriculum across

each of its major components (highest level of math, total Advanced Placement courses, total credits in English,

foreign languages, core laboratory sciences, social sciences, computer science, mathematics), and setting the floor

for that configuration at the first of what becomes a 32 (NELS) or 40 (HS&B/So) descending step variable that is

then rendered in quintiles to smooth out otherwise occasional lumpy distributions. For the data in this volume, the

variable was revised to reflect (a) a more accurate approximation of Advanced Placement coursework and (b) a

small number of imputed transcript records based on the enhanced Advanced Placement account.

33In both cohorts, class rank percentile was computed only for those cases where (1) both class rank and

class size were available, (2) where class size was greater than 10, and (3) where the student had received a standard

high school diploma (not a GED). Where class rank was missing but a high school grade point average was

available, an equipercentile concordance method was employed to generate a consolidated quintile scale. For the

data in this volume, missing cases were imputed, by quintile, where the quintile values held by the student for both

ACCURHSQ and SRTSQUIN were known and were identical. 

136

At Least One Received Transcript GEDLVREC in NELS 3.2

Contained Nothing but Remedial and HS&B/So Not used

and GED-Level Work

Continuity of Enrollment30 CONTIN in NELS and 3.2

HS&B/So, 5 values in

NELS, 4 in HS&B/So

In School Status in the Last Year INSCHOOL in NELS 3.2

of the Longitudinal Study31

High School Academic Curriculum ACCURHSQ in NELS 3.2

Intensity Quintile32 and HS&B/So

High School Class Rank/GPA CLSSRNKQ in NELS 3.2

Quintile33 and HS&B/So

Highest Mathematics Studied in HIGHMATH in NELS 3.2

High School and HS&B/So
34In both cohorts, students were asked a series of questions in grades 10 and 12 about the highest level of

education they expected to attain, their plans for the year following high school graduation, the postsecondary

institutions to which they applied (in the High School & Beyond/Sophomore surveys there were other questions

along similar lines). The highest level of the “anticipations” variable indicates consistency (in grades 10 and 12) in

plans and expectations for a bachelor’s (or higher) degree. The second level of the variable indicates that the student

raised expectations to the bachelor’s level between grades 10 and 12; the third level indicates a lowering of

expectations for the bachelor’s, and so forth.

35There are three overall undergraduate GPA measures in the NELS:88/2000: one after the first year of

attendance (GPA1), one taken 2 years after REFDATE (GPA2), and a final undergraduate GPA. The GPATREND

variable indicates whether the student’s GPA was rising, falling, or stagnant over the three measures.

36Student was enrolled in 2000 with more than 90 earned credits, a GPA equal to or greater than 2.75, and

a major indicated on the transcript that was backed up by 15 or more credits in the field.

37Student had earned more than 65 credits from a community college with a GPA equal to or greater than

2.5, and earned credits in regular English composition, and either earned credits in three of the following four areas:

college-level mathematics, core level 1 laboratory science, humanities, and social sciences, or presented a distinct

occupational curriculum with a minimum of 20 credits.

137

Consistency and Level of Educational EDUANTIC in NELS 3.2

Expectations34 EDUCEXP in HS&B/So Not used

Credits Earned in 1st Calendar Year TCREDG in NELS 3.3

of Attendance TCREDE in HS&B/So Not used

Credits in Courses from Which WITHCRED in NELS 3.3

Student Withdrew

Trend in GPA from 1st Year GPATREND in NELS 3.3

Through 2nd Year to Final Term35 (3 reference points)

GPATREND in HS&B/So Not used

 (2 reference points)

Planned Enrollment for the Year PLAN2001 in NELS 3.3

After the End of the Longitudinal Study

Bachelor’s Degree Likely to be BALIKELY in NELS 3.3

Awarded within a Year After the

End of the Longitudinal Study36

Eligible for Associate’s Degree, but ASSOELIG in NELS 3.3

no Degree Awarded37

System Retention from 1st to 2nd RETENTWO in NELS 3.4

Year of Postsecondary Education
38To illustrate: the 10 patterns of attendance for the NELS:88/2000 employ REFINST, TCREDCCL,

TCRED4YR, degrees and degree dates, and first and last term dates of attendance at community colleges and 4-year

institutions. The combinations help sort students who started in a community college and merely attended a 4-year

college at some time, and those who truly transferred to a 4-year college.

39Special mission institutions include Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), Hispanic

Serving Institutions (HSIs), tribal colleges, women’s colleges, and (added to the configuration for the

NELS:88/2000) religious mission institutions. Institutions can have more than one special mission.

40HERILANG flags students of Asian, Pacific Islander, Latino, or American Indian background who

complete postsecondary coursework in the language of their heritage. Based on a hand-and-eye reading of

transcript records of students with these backgrounds by two judges, the HERILANG flag was granted for (a) any

student taking a course with “for native speakers” in the title, (b) any student completing two or more courses

beyond the introductory level in a language matching their ethnic heritage, (c) any student completing introductory

level courses with grades of 3.5 or higher, and (d) any student completing advanced courses in the language

(conversation, composition, literature) with grades of 3.0 or higher. The reason for using grades is that they reduce

some of the ambiguity in the relationship between ethnicity and language. A student of Asian background, for

example, could take two elementary level courses in Japanese with grades of B- and one advanced course in

“Conversational Cantonese” with a grade of 4.0. It is the latter that says this student has taken a heritage language

course. 

138

Combinations of Institutional Types INSTCOMB in NELS 4.2

Attended COMBINST in HS&B/So

Types of Transfer Between 2-year and ATRANSFR in NELS 4.3

4-year Sectors of Postsecondary Education and HS&B/So

Credits Earned from Community TCREDCCL in NELS 4.4

Colleges CRD2YR in HS&B/So

 and NLS-72

Attendance Patterns Using the Community A2YR in HS&B/So 4.4

College as Reference Point38 and NLS-72

ACOMCOLL in NELS

Awards of Bachelor’s Degree by SPEC4 in NELS 4.5

Special Mission Institutions39 STYPE4 in HS&B/So Not Used

African-American Students’ Attendance BLACKATT in NELS 4.5

Patterns Using HBCUs as Reference And HS&B/So Not Used

Points

Latino Students’ Attendance Patterns HISPATT in NELS 4.6

Using HSIs as Reference Points

Heritage Language Study in College40 HERILANG in NELS 4.6
41Excludes credits earned by examination (e.g., Advanced Placement,) which are counted only if and when

entered on a postsecondary transcript.

42Includes Advanced Placement, College-Level Examination Program (CLEP), and institutional

examinations (only when credit toward a degree is awarded). Does not include basic skills examinations or state

“rising junior” examinations for which no credit is awarded.

139

Postsecondary Credits Earned in TCREDD in NELS 4.7

coursework Prior to High School

Graduation41

Credits by Examination42 TCREDE in NELS 4.7

TCREDX in HS&B/So Not Used

Bachelor’s Degree Major (Aggregate) BAMJR in NELS and NLS-72 5.1

B2MJR in HS&B/So

 (12 values in all)

Bachelor’s Degree Major (Detailed) MAJCOD4 in NELS and 5.3

 HS&B/So; MAJCOD5 in Not Used

 NLS-72

Associate’s Degree Major (Aggregate) AAMJR in NELS, 5.4

HS&B/So, and NLS-72

Undergraduate Credits Earned in SCI1CRED in NELS 5.5 

Level 1 Core Laboratory Science and HS&B/So

Undergraduate Credits Earned in FLANCRD3 in NELS 5.5

All Foreign Language Courses HS&B/So, and NLS-72

Undergraduate Credits Earned in MTHCRD3 in NELS, 5.5

Calculus and Advanced Math HS&B/So, and NLS-72

Undergraduate Credits Earned in NWCSCRD in NELS 5.5

Courses About Non-Western Cultures HS&B/So, and NLS-72

and Societies

Undergraduate Credits Earned in STATCRD in NELS, 5.5

Statistics HS&B/So, and NLS-72

Undergraduate Credits Earned in FPACRD in NELS, 5.5

Fine & Performing Arts HS&B/So, and NLS-72
43College-level mathematics includes courses below the level of calculus and above the level of Algebra 2. 

Examples include finite mathematics, college algebra, and analytic geometry.

44Letter equivalent grades include (a) the standard A, B, C, D, and F (and its penalty equivalents U, NP [no

pass, but only for credit-bearing courses] and WU [withdrew unsatisfactory]); (b) P (pass) or CR (credit); 

(c) W or WP (withdrew passing); and (d) NCR (no credit repeat). Excluded are NC (no credit, where the course

itself carries no credits and is not a repeated course), NG (no grade), and AU (audit). See Appendix B instructions

to data entry personnel in the matter of “the only grades we use.”

140

Undergraduate Credits Earned in HISTCRD in NELS 5.5

History HS&B/So, and NLS-72

Computer-Related Credits (undergrad) CRELCRD in NELS 5.5

 and HS&B/So

Undergraduate Credits Earned in WRITECRD in NELS 5.5

Writing Courses Beyond Freshman and HS&B/So

Composition

Undergraduate Credits Earned in SCI2CRD in NELS 5.7

Upper-Level Laboratory Science

Undergraduate Credits Earned in Ethics ETHCRD 5.7

Undergraduate Credits Earned in MTHCRD2 5.8

College-Level Mathematics43

Letter-Equivalent Grades44 GRADE in NELS, CRSGRADN 6.1

in HS&B/So, CRSGRADB in

NLS-72

Undergraduate Grade Point Average GPA in NELS, HS&B/So, and 6.1

NLS-72

Number of Courses from Which the WRPTCRSE in NELS 6.2

Student Withdrew or Which the BADCOURS in HS&B/So Not Used

Student Repeated

Type and Intensity of Remedial REMPROB in NELS 7.1

Coursework in Postsecondary and HS&B/So

Education