This report provides an update to the January 2010 FEWS NET Food Security Outlook report which estimated food security conditions in Zimbabwe through June 

2010. The next Outlook report will be released in April and will cover the April to September 2010 period.

FEWS NET Zimbabwe

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Tel: 263-4-744894/744878

zimbabwe@fews.net

FEWS NET Washington

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Washington DC 20006

info@fews.net

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this 

publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency 

for International Development or the United States Government.

www.fews.net/zimbabwe

Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook Update May 2010

Food security conditions are stable with good harvests from the 2009/10 season

Key Messages

• Staple cereals (maize, sorghum, and millet) are 

generally available throughout the country as a 

result of above average cereal production 

realized in the 2009/10 agricultural season. The 

supply of basic food stuffs on the market has 

remained stable. This condition is expected to 

prevail through to September 2010.

• Disposable income for the majority of poor 

urban households is likely to remain low given 

limited income generating opportunities and 

low wages. Access to food will remain 

suppressed for these poor households.

• Conducive market policy is likely to prevail

throughout the outlook period; this will enable

the continuous supply of basic commodities on 

the market. Domestic production continues to 

complement imports.

Updated food security outlook through 

September 2010

The 2009/2010 harvest is slightly better compared 

to last year. As a result, the 2010/11 national cereal 

deficit is estimated at about 416,328MT (table 1), 

taking into consideration the opening stocks from 

the Grain Marketing Board, food aid, and formal 

imports. This deficit could be much lower if on-farm 

stocks and informal imports were accounted for. 

Given the significant support and contribution 

provided by the Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) 

and humanitarian agencies in the past years, this 

cereal gap is likely to be closed. The current food 

security conditions are stable through September

2010 for most households; however poor and very poor households particularly in the grain deficit areas will require food 

assistance earlier than normal. The recently completed rural food security assessment by the Zimbabwe Vulnerability 

Assessment Committee (ZimVAC) will provide estimates for food insecure households in the 2010/11 consumption year.

Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions, May-June 2010

Source: FEWS NET

Figure 2. Estimated food security conditions, July-September 2010 

Source: FEWS NET

For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: 

www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale 
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook Update May 2010

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

According to the Second Round Crop and Livestock report (April 

2010) the majority of districts in the northern part of the country 

that include the Mashonaland East, West, and Central provinces 

have enough cereal, on average, for 10 months. Though this does 

not suggest the absence of cereal deficit households within these 

areas, it is an indication that most households from these provinces 

will have sufficient food to last them at least throughout the April to 

September outlook period before turning to the market. The food 

security situation in the northern parts is therefore expected to be 

stable in both the April to June 2010 and July to September 2010 

outlook periods (Figures 1 and 2).

In the Masvingo Province, the districts of Gutu, Zaka, Bikita, 

Masvingo, and Mwenezi experienced poor maize crop production 

which will only be sufficient for two to four months starting in May 

2010. Most households in these areas will be food insecure by 

September 2010, requiring food assistance earlier than normal. If 

production had been good in these districts with the current 

harvest going on, poor households would have generated income

from on-farm activities. Given the poor crop production, casual labor opportunities are very limited. These poor 

households with poor crop production and limited disposable income will face food shortages and access challenges 

through the July to September 2010 outlook period.

The rains received towards the end of the rainy season will promote gardening in most parts of the country including the 

Masvingo and Manicaland provinces. Most households are expected to engage in gardening as the main income generating 

activity. Income generated from gardening is also expected to be used to access cereals from the market by most 

households in these provinces. Cereal prices are expected to remain stable up to June and will go up as the onset of the 

hunger season approaches around August. The majority of households who engage in gardening are therefore expected to 

have better access to food compared to those with limited income generating options. 

Generally cereals are available at the household level as well as 

in markets, especially in high crop potential areas in the 

northern and central parts of the country. This situation is 

expected to prevail through to September 2010. According to 

the Agriculture and Food Security Monitoring Systems (AFSMS, 

April 2010), over 70 percent of the sites indicated that cereal 

was available either as grain or flour. The supply of maize meal 

remained at the same level from March to April (Figure 3) and 

the same is likely to prevail through June as well as the July -

September outlook period. In April 2010, monitored sites 

reflected that close to 36 percent of households were relying on 

cereals from own production, followed by purchases at 31 

percent, casual labor at 19 percent, and food aid at 9 percent. It 

is anticipated that as the season progresses, household cereal 

stocks from own production will run out and purchases, casual 

labor, and food aid will contribute significantly to household 

cereal sources.

Considering the better harvests experienced in the 2009/10 season, most poor urban households are currently food secure. 

However, income for the majority of poor urban households is likely to remain low given limited income generating 

activities and low wages. Access to food and non food will remain suppressed for these poor households through the JulySeptember 2010 outlook period.

Table 1. Cereal (Maize ,Sorghum, and Millet) 

Balance Sheet, April 2010/March 2011, as of April 

2010

DESCRIPTION MT

A Human requirements 1,640,000

B Livestock and other uses 350,000

C Seed 40,000

D

Total Annual Requirements 

(A+B+C) 2,030,000

E Production 1,521,460

F Strategic Grain Reserves 45,000

G Commercial imports (SAGIS) 19,952

H Food aid imports 27,260

I Opening stocks (F+G+H) 92,212

J

Total Available Cereals 

(E+I) 1,613,672

K Deficit (D-J) -416,328

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Mechanization and Irrigation 

Development, SAGIS, WFP, and C-SAFE

Figure 3: General Cereal Availability as of May 2010

Sources: AFSMS
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook Update May 2010

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

Source: FEWS NET
Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

ANNEX: Zimbabwe Monthly Price Bulletin May 2010

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government

agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other

network and private sector partners.

Maize grain, maize flour, cooking oil, and sugar represent the

most important food commodities consumed by poor

households. The Mbare market in Harare is where a very

large percentage of the most vulnerable households procure

their basic commodities.