FAA-APO-00-5

FAA LONG-RANGE

AEROSPACE FORECASTS

FISCAL YEARS

 2015, 2020 AND 2025

OFFICE OF

AVIATION POLICY AND PLANS

JUNE 2000
2

FAA LONG-RANGE

AEROSPACE FORECASTS

FISCAL YEARS

2015, 2020 AND 2025

I. SUMMARY

To assure consistency in agency planning, the Office of Aviation Policy and 

Plans provides an extension of its annual 12-year forecasts of aviation

demand. Although forecast values are shown for specific years, year-to-year 

fluctuations are difficult to forecast precisely. Therefore, the projections 

reflect the trend of average conditions expected during the forecast period. 

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) annual 12-year forecast is

utilized for both manpower and facility planning as well as for policy and 

regulatory analysis. The latest 12-year forecast (FAA-APO-00-1, FAA 

Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2000-2011, March 2000) provides projections 

of aviation activity and FAA workload measures through the year 2010. 

Periodically, a need arises for projections of aviation demand and activity 

beyond the published horizon. This document was developed to meet these 

needs, and contains projections for commercial and general aviation aircraft 

fleet and hours, air carrier and regional/commuter passenger enplanements

(domestic and international), air carrier air cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) 

pilots, and FAA workload measures for the years 2015, 2020 and 2025. 

The economic assumptions used in developing these extended forecasts are as 

follows:

 o there will be slightly slower economic growth relative to the immediate 

12-year period--2.8 percent versus 2.6 percent annually;

 o moderately higher increases in inflation--2.9 versus 2.6 percent

annually;

 o minimally higher real fuel prices--up 0.5 annually compared to an

decrease of 0.5 percent annually; and

• relatively small increases in long-term interest rates beyond 2011.
3

These assumptions translate into slower growth of aviation activity and FAA 

workload measures during the extended 14-year period (2011 to 2025) than was 

forecast for the immediate 12-year period (1999 to 2011). 

 AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGES 

 1999 - 2011 2011 - 2025 

AVIATION ACTIVITY

PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

 U.S. DOMESTIC 

 AIR CARRIERS 3.6 3.2

 REGIONALS/COMMUTERS 5.5 4.2

 INTERNATIONAL* 5.1 4.9

AIR CARGO FREIGHT RTMs

 DOMESTIC 5.4 5.2

 INTERNATIONAL 6.7 5.5

AIRCRAFT FLEET

 AIR CARRIER 4.0 3.2

 REGIONAL/COMMUTER** 2.9 1.8

 CARGO JETS 4.0 3.5

 GENERAL AVIATION 0.9 0.8

HOURS FLOWN

 AIR CARRIER 4.0 3.5

 REGIONAL/COMMUTER 3.0 3.0

 GENERAL AVIATION 2.2 1.5

PILOTS

 TOTAL 2.1 1.5

 INSTRUMENT RATED 1.7 1.5

FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES

TOWER OPERATIONS*** 2.0 1.7

INSTRUMENT OPERATIONS*** 2.2 1.9

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED 2.4 2.1

FLIGHT SERVICE STATIONS (0.3) (0.3)

* Total international passengers to and from the United States—U.S. and 

Foreign Flag Carriers. 

** Includes regional jets.

*** Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers.
4

II. LONG-RANGE FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

The long-range aviation forecasts are based on assumptions concerning the 

future of the commercial and general aviation industries and on the latest

macroeconomic projections. For the purposes of this report, the forecast

period refers to the long-range outlook, particularly the 2012 to 2025

period. Much of the discussion assumes some familiarity with the forecasts 

contained in FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2000-2011, dated March 

2000. Copies of this report can be obtained from the FAA Statistics and

Forecast Branch, APO-110, by calling (202) 267-3355. The Executive Summary 

and 45 forecast tables can be found on the Internet at

http://api.hq.faa.gov/apo_pubs.htm/.

A. Economic Assumptions

The long-range economic forecasts are based on an average of the economic

projections developed by DRI/McGraw-Hill (DRI) and WEFA Inc. (WEFA) for the 

years in which the two forecasts overlap. The DRI economic projections

extend through the year 2024 and the WEFA economic forecasts extend through 

the year 2019. Both sets of economic forecasts were developed utilizing 

trend projections and assume that the economy experiences relatively stable 

growth throughout the entire forecast period. Essentially, these projections 

represent the average of the possible paths that the U.S. economy could

follow. Using trend projections assumes that: (1) no major shocks will occur 

(the current rapid run-up in oil prices is assumed to a temporary condition); 

(2) economic policies remain stable; (3) national and international markets 

do not experience dramatic shifts in either the supply or demand for economic 

goods and services; and (4) the forecasts are not capacity constrained, and 

assume that the FAA and the airlines will develop cost efficient solutions to 

mitigate cost efficient solutions to mitigate any delay/congestion problems. 

These long-term economic projections represent appropriate points from which 

to evaluate the effects of variations about the mean of expected values of

various activity measures, transportation services, or FAA workload measures.

The consensus long-range economic outlook from DRI and WEFA is relatively

unchanged from the 1999 projections. The two forecasting services are fairly 

consistent in their expectations for growth in economic output and prices. 

The only major difference is in the outlook for 30-year Treasury Bonds

yields. The DRI expects a general rising rate throughout the 26-year 

forecast period, from 5.87 to 8.73 percent. WEFA, on the other hand,

projects a short-term rise in the 30-year Treasury Bond yield (to 6.79 percent in 2001), then a long-term decline through the balance of the forecast 

period to 5.15 percent.

The latest DRI and WEFA forecasts are both positive and consistent in their 

expectations for continued Federal budget surpluses during the long-term 

forecast horizon. In 2000, as in the last two years, the Treasury Department 

will be using part of the budget surplus to pay down the national debt. To 

the extent that the Treasury continues to use a portion of the current and 

expected budget surpluses to pay down the outstanding national debt, it will 

further reduce each succeeding year’s debt and interest payments. This,

together with the expected reduction in military spending and reduced growth 
5

in entitlement expenditures, will contribute to a continuing decline in

government spending as a percent of GDP, and result in a more positive

environment for sustained economic growth.

Real Gross Domestic Product

Currently, the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a moderate rate during the 

26-year forecast period. Growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for price changes and expressed in 1996 dollars, is projected to

average 2.6 percent annually over the extended 14-year forecast period. This 

is slower than both the historical past (2.9 percent between 1974 and 1999)

and the economic projections for the immediate 12-year forecast period (a 

rate of 2.8 percent between 2000 and 2011). During the entire 26-year period 

between 2000 and 2025, real GDP is expected to increase at a 2.7 percent

average annual rate. 

Consumer Price Index

Inflation is not expected to return to the high rates experienced during the 

latter half of the 1970s and early 1980s (8.7 percent annual growth between 

1972 and 1982) during the entire 26-year forecast period. The opinion of the 

major economic forecasting services is that there will be little upward

pressure from real wage rates and commodity prices, and that the Federal 

Reserve is committed to controlling inflation while providing for sufficient 

growth in the money supply to ensure growth in output. The consumer price 

index is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent a 

year during the 26-year time period--2.6 percent during the immediate 12-year 

period (to 2011) and 2.9 percent during the extended forecast period (to 

2025). 

Fuel Prices

Fuel prices, as measured by the Oil and Gas Deflator, are forecast to

increase at an annual rate of 2.8 percent over the 26-year forecast period--

comparable to expected overall inflation rate. Between 1999 and 2011,

nominal fuel prices are projected to increase at an annual rate of only

2.1 percent, a decline of 0.5 percent annually in real terms. Between 2011 

and 2025, nominal fuel prices are projected to increase at an annual rate of 

3.4 percent, an increase of 0.5 percent in real terms.

Interest Rates

Long-term nominal interest rates are tied to inflationary expectations. The 

Federal Reserve is expected to pursue a monetary policy that keeps inflation 

in check and allows for sufficient monetary aggregate growth to sustain

economic output gains. With budget deficit pressures apparently under

control, and with the positive long-term outlook for the rate of inflation, 

long-term interest rates are expected to remain relatively stable over the 

immediate 12-year forecast period before rising slightly through 2025. 

Interest rates are expected to remain almost unchanged during the immediate 

12-year forecast period--5.9 percent in 1999 compared to 6.0 percent in 2011. 

During the extended forecast period, interest rates are expected to increase 

to 7.0 percent, not significantly above the average rate during the 1990’s. 
6

ECONOMIC VARIABLES FORECASTS

REAL GDP CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

OIL AND GAS DEFLATOR 30-YEAR GOVERNMENT BONDS

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

50

100

150

200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

5

10

15

20
7

B. Operational Variables

The long-range forecasts of various operational variables discussed below

are, for the most part, a continuation of the trends discussed in greater 

detail in FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2000-2011. As with the 

economic projections, these forecasts reflect an average trend of the

possible paths that the various operational variables could follow. They

assume that (1) no major shocks will occur (such as a rapid run-up in oil 

prices), (2) economic policies remain stable, and (3) no dramatic shifts in 

either the supply or demand for aviation services. These long-term 

projections represent appropriate points from which to evaluate the effects

of variations about the expected values of various activity measures,

transportation demand and services, or FAA workload measures.

Air Carrier Passenger Yield

The current 12-year and extended 14-year forecasts assume that real domestic 

passenger yields (expressed as revenue per passenger mile) will continue the 

historical long-term gradual downward trend. Real domestic passenger yields 

are projected to decline by 0.9 percent annually over the 26-year period. 

The downward trend in real domestic yields is based on the assumptions of 

continued strong competition in the industry, and continued improvements in

efficiency and productivity.

There has been a long-term decrease in international real yields similar to 

that experienced in the domestic market. However, real yields in

international markets are generally lower than in the domestic market,

because of lower operating costs. These lower costs are associated with 

longer average stage length and with the use of larger aircraft, which tend 

to have lower seat mile costs. It is assumed that over the forecast period 

productivity and competition will expand in international markets, which will 

continue to push real yields down. Market efficiencies will be achieved with 

the use of more productive aircraft, expanded open-skies agreements, and 

extended global alliances. Total international real yields for U.S. flag

carriers are expected to decline 1.1 percent through 2011. Over the 26-year 

period, international yields, adjusted for inflation, are expected to decline 

0.8 percent a year.

Average Aircraft Size

The increase in the average seat size of the U.S. domestic fleet will be

relatively small through the middle years of the immediate 12-year forecast 

period, averaging just under 0.4 seats per year between 1999 and 2006. After 

2006 many of the smaller hush-kitted stage-2 aircraft will be replaced with 

generally larger stage-3 aircraft, the result being an increase in the

average aircraft size of about one seat per year through 2011. Over the

entire 12-year forecast period, the average seat size of the domestic fleet 

is expected to grow by just over 0.6 seats per year--from 141.3 to 148.7. 

The average seating capacity of the domestic air carrier fleet is expected to 

continue to increase over the extended 14-year forecast period. The new

aircraft entering the fleet during this period are expected to be generally 

larger than the aircraft being replaced. Therefore, the average seating

capacity of the domestic air carrier fleet is expected to increase by one 
8

seat annually over the extended forecast period, reaching 162.7 seats in 

2025.

The average aircraft size of the U.S. air carrier international fleet is 

expected to gradually increase over the 26-year forecast period as the U.S. 

carriers expand the number of non-stop city-pair service into deep South

America, Europe, and Asia. The carriers--over this extended period--will 

begin to use larger two-engine and four-engine two-aisle aircraft. The

average size of the aircraft is expected to increase from 232.4 seats in 1999 

to 265.0 seats in 2025.

The average seating capacity of regional/commuter aircraft is forecast to 

increase by just under 0.7 seats annually between 1999 and 2011 (from 36.0 to 

44.3 seats). This trend is expected to continue over the extended forecast 

period, with the average seating capacity of regional/commuter aircraft

averaging approximately 54.1 seats in the year 2025. This reflects the

continued introduction of larger high-speed turboprop and regional jet

aircraft into the regional/commuter fleet. The extended range and greater 

speed offered by these aircraft are expected to expand the market potential 

for the regional industry, and continue to blur the distinction between

regional/commuters and the large commercial operators.

Load Factor

Domestic air carrier load factors are projected to remain at their current

historical high levels throughout the remainder of the immediate and extended 

forecast period. During the past several years, airline scheduling policies 

have allowed air carriers to rapidly adjust capacity levels to more closely 

correspond to changes in passenger demand. This ability to make rapid

adjustments to meet changing demand conditions has enabled the airlines to 

push up load factors to all-time highs. It is expected that present fleet 

plans will provide capacity levels that should maintain the air carrier load 

factor at between 69 and 70 percent throughout the forecast period.

As in domestic markets, the wide range of aircraft capable of international 

flight also allows U.S. airlines to adjust their international capacity

levels to changing levels of demand. The international load factor is

forecast to remain relatively stable during the 26-year forecast period, 

increasing slightly from 73.9 percent in 1999 to 75.0 percent in 2025.

Regional/commuter load factors are projected to increase from 57.6 percent in 

1999 to 61.6 percent in 2011. During the extended forecast period,

regional/commuter load factors are expected to rise to approximately

66.1 percent by 2025. The higher load factors result from the continued 

introduction of larger high-speed turboprop and regional jet aircraft and the 

need to cover the higher cost per seat mile associated with these aircraft. 
9

OPERATIONAL VARIABLES FORECAST

REAL DOMESTIC AND

INTERNATIONAL YIELDS

DOMESTIC PASSENGER

LOAD FACTORS

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

DOMESTIC AIR CARRIER AIRCRAFT

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

REGIONAL/COMMUTER AIRCRAFT

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

FISCAL YEARS

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

PERCENTAGE OF SEATS OCCUPIED

AIR CARRIER REGIONAL/COMMUTER

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

FISCAL YEARS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

FISCAL YEARS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

5

10

15

20

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL
10

III. LONG-RANGE AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Forecasts of various measures of aviation activity for 2000 and 5-year 

increments between 2000 and 2025 are provided in Table 1, page 13. A

discussion of some of these measures of aviation activity follows in the 

paragraphs below. 

A. Passenger Enplanements and Cargo 

Air Carrier

Air carrier demand, as measured by domestic passenger enplanements, is

projected to continue to grow faster than the general economy. For the

period 2000 to 2011, domestic passenger enplanements are forecast to increase 

at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent compared to a 2.8 percent annual 

growth rate in real GDP. Over the extended forecast period (2011-2025), 

domestic passenger enplanements are projected to increase at an average

annual rate of 3.2 percent compared to real GDP growth of 2.6 percent

annually. 

Forecasts of total passenger traffic (U.S. and foreign flag carriers) are

provided between the United States and three world travel areas--Atlantic, 

Latin America (including Mexico and the Caribbean), and the Pacific/Far East-

-as well as for U.S./Canadian transborder traffic. Total passenger traffic 

between the United States and the rest of the world is expected to grow from 

132.0 million in 1999 to 466.8 million in 2025, an average annual growth rate 

of 5.0 percent. Passenger traffic is expected to be strongest in Latin

American and Pacific markets, growing at annual rates of 5.9 percent over the 

forecast period. Passenger traffic is projected to grow 4.1 percent annually 

in Atlantic markets and 3.4 percent a year in Canadian markets.

Regionals/Commuters

The regional/commuter industry is projected to continue to grow at a

relatively faster pace than the large air carriers through both the immediate 

and extended forecast periods, averaging 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively. 

A large part of the growth during the early years of the immediate forecast 

period is expected to result from a continuation of the shift of low-density, 

short-haul markets from the larger air carriers to their commuter code-share 

partners. However, most of the growth during the extended forecast period is 

expected to be derived from markets created by the expanded use of regional 

jet aircraft.

The introduction and popularity of regional jets is expected to open up new 

growth opportunities in thin, intermediate range markets that cannot be

served economically with large jet aircraft. The speed and range of the

regional jet also offers the opportunity for more point-to-point (hub bypass) 

operations in markets which are currently served only via connecting flights 

through large hubs. There are currently 11 regional/commuter operators

operating regional jet aircraft, and up to four more are expected to be

operating jets by the end of 2000. This, together with the public preference 

for jet aircraft, should ensure that the regional/commuter industry should

continue to grow more rapidly than the large air carriers.
11

Air Cargo

The air cargo forecast discussed here is comprised of domestic and

international revenue freight/express carried by U.S. air carriers and is 

measured by revenue ton-miles (RTMs). Air cargo is moved in the bellies of 

passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and 

non-scheduled service.

In 1999, combined domestic and international RTMs flown by U.S. commercial 

air carriers totaled 25.0 billion. By 2011, this figure is projected to 

reach 51.1 billion, an average annual increase of 6.1 percent. During the

extended forecast period, total domestic and international freight/express is 

projected to total 106.3 billion RTMs, an average annual increase of

5.4 percent. Over the entire 26-year period, growth in total freight/express 

RTMs is expected to average 5.7 percent annually.

Domestic freight/express RTMs are forecast to increase from 11.5 billion in 

1999 to 43.7 billion in 2025, an average annual increase of 5.3 percent for 

over 26-year forecast period. International freight/express RTMs are

forecast to grow faster rate than domestic RTMs, increasing from 13.6 billion 

in 1999 to 62.6 billion in 2025, averaging 6.0 percent growth annually for

the 26-year forecast period. This expectation is based on the projected 

strong economic growth in world GDP, especially in the Latin American and

Asian regions.

B. Aircraft Fleets and Hours Flown

Commercial Air Carriers

The commercial air carrier passenger jet fleet is forecast to increase at an 

annual rate of 3.3 percent from 4,312 aircraft in 1999 to 6,400 aircraft in 

2011. By far the largest increase, in terms of number of aircraft, is

projected to occur in the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category, which is 

expected to grow by an average of 166 aircraft (4.2 percent) annually. By 

2011, the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category is expected to total

5,124 units and account for 80 percent of the fleet.

Slower growth in passenger demand during the extended forecast period is

expected to result in a slowing in the expansion of the air carrier fleet. 

Between 2011 and 2025, the air carrier fleet is forecast to increase at an 

average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching a total of 9,941 aircraft in 

2025. 

The cargo jet fleet is projected to increase at an annual rate of 4.0 percent 

during the immediate 12-year forecast period, from 1,013 aircraft in 1999 to 

1,931 in 2011. During the extended 14-year forecast period, the cargo jet 

fleet is forecast to increase at a 3.4 percent average annual rate reaching 

2,600 aircraft by 2025. Over the entire 26-year forecast period, the cargo 

jet fleet is forecast to grow at a faster average annual rate than the

passenger fleet (3.7 percent compared to 3.2 percent), reflecting the

expected higher sustained growth in cargo traffic – especially international 

traffic. 
12

The number of hours flown by the large commercial passenger and cargo jet 

aircraft is forecast to increase by 4.0 percent annually between 1999 and

2011, and by 3.5 percent annually between 2011 and 2025. The immediate and 

extended range fleet forecasts imply that U.S. air carriers will use larger 

aircraft and continued high load factors to accommodate increasing passenger 

demand. The forecasts of hours flown imply that the average utilization of 

the U.S. fleet will increase gradually over the 26-year forecast period. 

The regional/commuter fleet (60 seats or less) is expected to grow from its 

current 2,237 aircraft in 1999 to 4,000 by the year 2025. This is an average 

annual growth rate of 2.3 percent over the 26-year forecast period, or

approximately 68 aircraft annually. This includes the smaller regional jets 

(30 to 70 seats) which will be introduced into the fleet in significant

numbers over the forecast period. By comparison, regional/commuter flight

hours are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent

during the same time period--from 3.7 million hours in 1999 to 8.0 million in 

2025.

General Aviation Aircraft

In 1999, general aviation completed its fifth year of operation following the 

enactment of the General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994. During this

period the industry has posted significant positive results: 254,000 new jobs 

have been created; production of general aviation aircraft has increased 

100 percent; revenues from the export of general aviation aircraft have

doubled; investment in research and development by general aviation companies 

has increased 150 percent; and the number of student pilots is growing again. 

Based on the results of the 1998 General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity

Survey, the active general aviation fleet and hours flown have increased for 

four consecutive year. Additionally, general aviation activity counts at 

combined FAA and contract towers and en route centers have increased

significantly over the past 3 years, up 13.4 and 12.1 percent, respectively. 

These trends bode well for the future outlook for the general aviation

industry. 

The number of active general aviation aircraft is expected to increase from 

206,530 aircraft in 1999 to 230,995 in 2011, and then expand to 256,900 by 

2025. This represents an average annual growth of 0.9 percent during the 

immediate forecast period and 0.8 percent over the extended forecast period. 

The piston engine portion of the general aviation fixed-wing aircraft fleet 

is forecast to increase by 0.6 percent during the immediate 12-year forecast 

period and 0.5 percent over the extended 14-year forecast period. Fixed-wing 

turbine powered general aviation aircraft are expected to grow at a faster 

rate than the piston powered aircraft, increasing 3.2 percent annually

between 1999 and 2011, and by 2.2 percent during the 2011 to 2025 period. 

The higher growth rate for the turbine portion of the fleet is based on the 

expectations of a greater business and corporate use of general aviation

aircraft in an expanding U.S. economy. 

Growth in general aviation flight hours is forecast to increase at a faster 

rate than the active fleet. General aviation activity is very sensitive to

changes in fuel price and variations in the rate of economic growth. Based 

on the assumptions of sustained economic growth, relative stability in fuel 

prices, and the continued growth in fractional ownership programs and

corporate flying, it is expected that aircraft utilization rates will return 

to the higher levels experienced prior to the 1990-1991 economic recession. 

As such, general aviation flight hours are forecast to increase from
13

29.8 million in 1999 to 38.8 million in 2011, and to 47.7 million in 2025--

2.2 and 1.5 percent annual growth, respectively.

The positive forecasts for general aviation fleet and flight hours are

heavily dependent on the assumptions related to continued economic growth and 

price stability. However, equally important to future growth are continued 

investment in plant expansion and production by general aviation manufactures 

and the success of industry programs, such as “GA Team 2000,” to foster the 

growth in number of student pilots. If the general aviation industry falters 

in its efforts to stimulate the production of new general aviation products 

and services, the outlook for the active fleet, hours flown, and general 

aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities could be considerably lower 

than the current projections.

C. Number of Pilots

The total pilot population is forecast to increase from 640,113 in 1999 to

over one million by the year 2025, an average annual growth rate of

1.8 percent over the 26-year forecast period. Much of the growth results

from the continuing demand for airline transport pilots. Additionally,

recent industry program initiatives designed to promote the benefits of

general aviation flying to businesses and the public, to stimulate growth in 

the number of new pilots, and to develop an improved flight training

infrastructure are also expected to contribute to the growth in the pilot

population. During this same time period, the number of instrument rated

pilots is expected to increase from 308,951 to 463,600. The percentage of

instrument rated pilots decreases from 48.3 percent in 1999 to 45.8 percent 

in 2025 because of the projected increases in student pilots relative to the 

total pilot population.

D. Total Aviation Activity

Total civil aircraft activity at towered and non-towered airports (based on 

projections for just under 4,000 public use airports in the Terminal Area

Forecast database) is forecast to reach 154.5 million by the year 2025, an

average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent over the activity level forecast

for 2011 (136.1 million operations). This in turn represents an average

annual growth rate of 1.1 percent over the 119.7 million total aircraft

operations recorded in 1999.

Commercial aircraft operations (the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) 

at all U.S. airports, towered or non-towered, are projected to increase from 

28.9 million in 1999 to 36.7 million in 2011, and to 46.9 million in 2025. 

These forecasts imply an average annual growth rate of 2.0 percent over the 

immediate forecast period, and 1.8 percent over the extended forecast period.

The number of general aviation operations at towered and non-towered airports 

is forecast to increase from 90.8 million in 1999 to 99.4 million in 2011 and 

to 107.6 million in 2025. The average annual growth rate for the immediate

forecast periods is 0.8 percent and 0.6 percent for the extended forecast

period. Much of the growth is the result of increased use of the turbine

fleet for business/corporate related flying.
14

TABLE 1

LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

AVIATION DEMAND AND ACTIVITY

ACTUAL MARCH 2000 FORECAST LONG-RANGE FORECAST

1999 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Enplanements and Air 

Cargo (In Millions)

Enplanements

 Air Carrier

 Domestic 576.1 594.8 701.0 848.5 1,002.9 1,174.0 1,374.2

 International* 132.0 137.6 175.7 227.3 291.8 370.9 466.8

 Regional/Commuter 72.3 78.2 103.0 131.7 165.7 203.5 244.1

Freight/Express RTMs 25.1 26.6 36.5 48.4 63.7 82.7 106.3

Aircraft Fleets

(In Thousands)

Air Carrier-Large Jets 4.3 4.4 5.1 6.2 7.3 8.6 9.9

Cargo-Jet Aircraft 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6

Regional/Commuter 2.2 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.0

 Regional Jets 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.6

 Turboprops 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4

General Aviation 184.3 186.1 195.3 203.2 211.5 218.8 226.1

 Piston Engine 164.0 165.2 171.2 176.2 181.5 186.1 190.7

 Turbine Engine 12.7 13.2 15.7 18.1 20.5 22.7 24.9

 Helicopter 7.6 7.7 8.4 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.5

Hours Flown

(In Millions)

Air Carrier 13.6 13.9 17.0 21.0 25.3 30.1 35.3

Regional/Commuter 3.7 3.9 4.3 5.1 6.0 7.0 8.0

General Aviation 28.4 29.1 32.8 36.5 39.6 42.5 45.6

Active Pilots

(In Thousands)

Total 640.1 650.4 737.3 810.0 881.2 949.0 1,011.7

Instrument Rated 309.0 315.1 345.5 372.8 401.5 432.4 463.6

Estimated Civil

U.S. Operations

(In Millions)

Commercial 28.9 29.4 32.6 36.0 39.5 43.2 46.9

General Aviation 90.8 91.4 95.0 98.6 102.4 105.1 107.6

· Total international passengers to and from the United States—U.S. and Foreign

Flag carriers
15

AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

FISCAL YEAR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

THOUSANDS OF AIRCRAFT

AIR CARRIER REGIONAL/COMMUTER

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PISTON TURBINE/ROTOR/OTHER

AIR CARRIER 

PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

REGIONAL/COMMUTER

PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEET GENERAL AVIATION FLEET

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

500

1000

1500

2000

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL
16

IV. LONG-RANGE WORKLOAD MEASURE FORECASTS

Forecasts of FAA workload measures by user groups for 1999 and 5-year increments between 2000 and 2025 are provided in Table 2, page 17. A discussion 

of the forecasts follows in the paragraphs below.

A. Towered Operations

At the end of FY 1999 the number of FAA towers totaled 288, down from 402 in 

1994. During this same period of time, the number of FAA contract towers has 

increased from 33 to 166. An additional 22 FAA towers are slated to be

converted to contract tower status in 2000: the year-end figures totaling 

266 FAA towers and 188 contract towers. Given the uncertainty about current 

and future year conversions, the forecasts presented in this document are 

combined forecasts independent of the distinction between FAA and contract

tower status.

Aircraft operations at combined FAA and contract towered airports are

forecast to total 86.9 million in 2011 and 110.2 million in 2025--an average 

annual growth rate of 1.9 percent over the 26-year forecast period). Most of 

the growth is expected to come from commercial activity (the sum of air

carrier and commuter/air taxi), which is projected to grow 2.7 percent

annually during the immediate forecast period and 2.4 percent annually during 

the extended forecast period. The slower growth in commercial activity

relative to enplanements (3.6 and 3.2 percent during the immediate and

extended forecast periods) is due to a combination of continued high load

factors, larger aircraft, and longer passenger trip lengths.

Although regional/commuter enplanements increase at much faster rate than the 

larger air carriers over the 26year forecast period (5.0 percent compared to 

3.1 percent), commuter/air taxi activity increases at a 2.5 percent annual 

rate compared to air carrier growth of 2.6 percent annually. This slower 

commuter/air taxi activity growth is largely due to the large numbers of the 

regional jet aircraft that are expected to enter the regional/commuter fleet 

over the forecast period. As such, regional/commuter average aircraft size, 

load factors, and passenger trip lengths all increase at significantly faster 

rates than do those of the larger air carriers. 

General aviation activity, which accounted for 58.6 percent of combined tower 

activity in 1999, grows at a considerably slower pace relative to commercial 

activity over the 26-year forecast period--1.7 and 1.2 percent, respectively, 

during the immediate and extended forecast periods. In the year 2025, 

general aviation is expected to account for just over 53.1 percent of

combined tower activity. Military activity is projected to remain constant 

at the 2.9 million operations posted in 1999 throughout the 26-year forecast 

period.
17

B. Instrument Operations

Instrument operations at combined FAA and contract towered airports are

forecast to total 67.6 million in 2011 and 88.2 million in 2025, average 

annual growth rates of 2.2 and 1.9 percent, respectively, during the

immediate and extended forecast periods. Most of the growth is expected to 

come from commercial activity, which is projected to grow 2.7 percent

annually during the immediate forecast period and 2.4 percent annually during 

the extended forecast period. Air carrier instrument activity is forecast to 

grow 2.6 percent annually over the 26-year forecast period while commuter/air 

taxi activity is forecast to increase at a 2.5 percent average annual rate

during the same time period. 

General aviation activity is projected to increase at a relatively slower 

pace over the forecast period, averaging 1.6 percent through the immediate 

forecast period and 1.4 percent during extended forecast periods. Military 

activity is forecast to remain constant at the 3.5 million operations

recorded in 1999 throughout the 26-year forecast period. 

Commercial activity is expected to increase from 52.9 percent of total

instrument activity at combined FAA and contract towers in 1999 to 60.0 percent by the year 2025.

C. ARTCC Aircraft Handled

The number of aircraft handled at FAA en route traffic control centers is 

forecast to reach 59.4 million in 2011 and 79.7 million in 2025, an average 

annual growth rate of 2.4 percent for the 1999-2011 time period and

2.1 percent for the 2011-2025 time period. Much of the growth occurs in the 

number of commercial aircraft handled, which increases by 2.8 and 2.4 percent, respectively, over the two forecast periods. The number of air carrier 

aircraft handled increases by an average annual rate of 2.6 percent over the 

26-year forecast period--2.8 and 2.4 percent, respectively, over the

immediate and extended time periods. The number of commuter/air taxi

aircraft handled is forecast to increase by 2.6 percent annually during the 

immediate forecast period and 2.4 percent over the extended forecast period--

2.5 percent over the entire 26-year period.

The number of general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en route centers

increases at a slower rate over the two forecast periods, 2.0 percent

annually over the immediate 12-year period and 1.5 percent over the extended 

14-year period. The number of military aircraft handled is forecast to

remain constant at the 4.1 million recorded in 1999 through 2025. 

By the end of the 26-year forecast period, commercial activity is expected to 

account for 77.5 percent of the total center activity compared to 71.2 percent in 1999. 
18

D. Flight Services

The number of services provided by FAA flight service stations is forecast to 

total 31.2 million in 2011 and 30.1 mil-lion in 2025, an annual decline of 

0.3 percent over the 26-year forecast period. The projected decline in

services provided by FAA flight service stations reflects both the continued 

consolidation of flight service stations and a greater use of automated and 

alternative flight services that are not provided directly by the FAA.

Average annual growth rates for each of the three flight service categories 

for the immediate and extended forecast periods are: flight plans originated: 

up 0.6 and 0.3 percent; pilot briefs: down 0.7 and 0.5 percent; and number of 

aircraft contacted; down 2.8 and 2.5 percent.

Automated services provided through the Direct User Access Terminal System

(DUATS) are forecast to grow throughout the immediate and extended forecast 

periods. DUATS services are projected to increase to 18.1 million in 2011 

(2.8 percent annual growth) and to 26.3 million in 2025 (2.5 percent annual 

growth). During the 26-year period, the combined FSS and DUATS services are 

forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent. 

These forecasts of FSS and DUATS services assume that there will be no

changes in the current definitions of flight service measures nor any change 

in the manner in which they are delivered to the general aviation pilot. 

There is, however, significant uncertainty concerning the impact of

technology on the set of flight services to be provided by the FAA in the

future. As more specific information becomes known about the future flight 

service system the forecasts will be adjusted accordingly. 
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TABLE 2

LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES

(In Millions)

ACTUAL MARCH 2000 FORECAST LONG-RANGE FORECAST

Tower Operations* 1999 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Total 68.2 69.5 77.0 85.3 93.7 102.0 110.2

Itinerant 49.6 50.7 56.6 63.3 70.2 77.1 84.1

 Air Carrier 14.6 15.0 17.2 19.9 22.7 25.6 28.7 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 10.6 10.9 12.2 14.0 15.9 17.9 20.0

 General Aviation 23.0 23.4 25.7 28.0 30.2 32.2 34.0

 Military 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Local 18.5 18.8 20.4 22.0 23.5 24.8 26.0

 General Aviation 17.0 17.3 18.9 20.5 22.0 23.3 24.5

 Military 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Instrument Operations*

Total 51.8 52.9 59.1 66.2 73.4 80.7 88.2

 Air carrier 15.8 16.2 18.7 21.6 24.6 27.7 31.1

 Commuter/Air Taxi 11.6 11.9 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.6 21.8

 General Aviation 20.9 21.3 23.5 25.8 27.9 29.9 31.8

 Military 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

ARTCC Aircraft Handled

Total 44.7 45.7 51.5 58.1 65.1 72.2 79.7

 Air Carrier 24.0 24.7 28.4 32.4 36.8 41.4 46.1

 Commuter/Air Taxi 7.7 7.9 9.0 9.3 10.4 11.6 12.7

 General Aviation 8.8 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 12.9 13.8

 Military 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

FSS Services

Total 32.4 32.3 32.1 31.6 31.1 30.6 30.1

 Pilot Briefs 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1

 Flight Plans Filed 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0

 Aircraft Contacted 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9

DUATs 13.4 13.7 16.0 18.2 21.1 23.8 26.3

* Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers.

 Note: Totals may not add due to independent rounding.
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WORKLOAD MEASURES FORECAST

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