FAA-APO-04-3 

 FAA LONG-RANGE 

 AEROSPACE FORECASTS

 FISCAL YEARS

 2020, 2025 and 2030 

 OFFICE OF 

AVIATION POLICY AND PLANS 

 JULY 2004
 

2

FAA LONG-RANGE 

 AEROSPACE FORECASTS 

 FISCAL YEARS 

2020, 2025 and 2030

I. SUMMARY

To assure consistency in agency planning, the Office of Aviation Policy and Plans provides an 

extension of its annual 12-year forecasts of aviation demand. Although forecast values are 

shown for specific years, year-to-year fluctuations are difficult to forecast precisely. Therefore, 

the projections reflect the trend of average conditions expected during the forecast period. 

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) annual 12-year forecast is utilized for both 

manpower and facility planning as well as for policy and regulatory analysis. The latest 12-year 

forecast (FAA-APO-04-1, FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2004-2015, March 2004) 

provides projections of aviation activity and FAA workload measures through the year 2015. 

Periodically, a need arises for projections of aviation demand and activity beyond the published 

horizon. This document was developed to meet these needs, and contains projections for 

commercial and general aviation aircraft fleet and hours, air carrier and regional/commuter 

passenger enplanements (domestic and international), and air carrier air cargo revenue ton-miles 

(RTMs). 

The economic assumptions used in developing these extended forecasts are as follows: 

• The economy will grow at a lower rate than the immediate 12-year period--2.9 percent 

versus 3.3 percent annually; 

• inflation will be higher than in the immediate forecast period--averaging 3.3 percent 

annually compared to 2.2 percent; and 

• falling real fuel prices--a decrease of 0.1 percent annually compared to a decrease of 

1.5 percent annually during the 2004-2015 period; 

These assumptions translate into generally lower growth in aviation activity and FAA workload 

measures during the extended 15-year period (2016 to 2030) than was forecast for the immediate 

12-year period (2003 to 2015). Table 1 shows comparative annual growth rates for 2 time 

periods: (1) 2003 to 2015; and (2) 2016 to 2030. 
 

3

II. LONG-RANGE FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

The long-range aviation forecasts are based on assumptions concerning the future of the 

commercial and general aviation industries and on the latest macroeconomic projections. For the 

purposes of this report, the forecast period refers to the long-range outlook, particularly the 2016 

to 2030 period. Much of the discussion assumes some familiarity with the forecasts contained in 

FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2004-2015 (March 2004). Copies of this report can be 

obtained from the FAA Statistics and Forecast Branch, APO-110, by calling (202) 267-3355. 

The entire forecast publication can be found on the Internet at 

http://api.hq.faa.gov/apo_pubs.htm/. 

The above referenced document also addresses the forecast assumptions relating to the 

continuing impact of the events of September 11, 2001, on projected levels of aviation demand. 

The following long-range forecasts are extensions of the immediate 10-year forecasts (2005 to 

2015). The forecast assumes that this period is distinguished by a return to more normal levels of 

growth in the demand for aviation products and services. Without going into more detail, the 

basic impact of the events of September 11 has been to set back traffic projections by about four 

years compared to forecasts made prior to September 11, 2001. 

A. Economic Assumptions

The long-range economic forecasts are based on the economic projections developed by the 

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Global Insight, Inc. (formerly known as 

DRI/WEFA Inc). OMB’s projections of U.S. economic growth were used for the period 2003-

2015 and then extrapolated to 2030. The Global Insight economic projections for U.S. inflation 

and international economic growth, which extend through the year 2027, have been extrapolated 

to 2030. The economic forecasts were developed utilizing trend projections and assume that the 

economy experiences relatively stable growth throughout the 2005-2030 period. Essentially, 

these projections represent the average of the possible paths that the U.S. and global economy 

could follow. Using trend projections assumes that: (1) no major shocks will occur (the rapid 

run-up in oil prices in 2004 and subsequent decline in 2005/06 is assumed to be a temporary 

condition); (2) economic policies remain stable; (3) national and international markets do not 

experience dramatic shifts in either the supply or demand for economic goods and services; and 

(4) the forecasts are not capacity constrained, and assume that the FAA and the airlines will 

develop cost efficient solutions to mitigate any delay/congestion problems. These long-term 

economic projections represent appropriate points from which to evaluate the effects of 

variations about the mean of expected values of various activity measures, transportation 

services, or FAA workload measures. 

The long-range economic outlook from Global Insight is relatively unchanged from the 2003 

projections. The forecasting service is fairly consistent in its expectations for growth in 

economic output, prices, and interest rates. The major economic assumptions are addressed in 

more detail below.
 

4

TABLE 1 

COMPARISON OF

INTERMEDIATE AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

 

Average Annual Percent Change

2003 - 2015 2016 - 2030

AVIATION ACTIVITY

Passenger Enplanements 

 U.S. Domestic 

 Large Air Carriers 3.6 3.3 

 Regionals/Commuters 6.4 3.5 

 International* 5.1 3.7 

Air Cargo RTMs 

 Domestic 3.5 3.0 

 International 5.3 4.2 

Aircraft Fleets 

 Air Carrier 2.9 2.8 

 Regional/Commuter 4.1 2.5 

 Cargo Jets 2.9 2.4 

 General Aviation 1.3 0.8 

Hours Flown 

 Air Carrier** 3.5 2.9 

 Regional/Commuter (Block Hrs) 4.7 2.7 

 General Aviation 1.7 1.7 

Pilots 

 Total 1.6 1.3 

 Instrument Rated 1.7 1.5 

FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES 

 Tower Operations*** 2.1 1.7 

 Instrument Operations*** 2.1 1.9 

 IFR Aircraft Handled 2.4 2.1 

 Flight Service Stations 0.9 0.9 

* Total international passengers to and from United States—U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers. 

** Includes both passenger and cargo operations. 

*** Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers. 
 

5

Real Gross Domestic Product

The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a moderate rate of 3.1 percent annually during the 27-

year forecast period. Growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for price changes 

and expressed in 1996 dollars, is projected to average 2.9 percent annually over the extended 15-

year (2016 to 2030) forecast period. This is comparable to both the historic rate of growth 

(2.9 percent between 1974 and 2000) and the projected growth for the immediate 12-year 

forecast period (3.3 percent between 2003 and 2015). 

International economic growth is expected to grow at rates comparable to those of the U.S. 

during the 27-year forecast period. World real GDP is projected to average 3.2 percent annually 

for the immediate 12-year forecast period and 3.0 percent annually over the extended 15-year 

forecast period. These rates of growth are comparable to the historic rate of growth of 

2.8 percent between 1980 and 2000. 

Consumer Price Index

Inflation is not expected to return to the high rates experienced during the latter half of the 1970s 

and early 1980s (8.7 percent annual growth between 1972 and 1982) during the entire 27-year 

forecast period. Global Insight’s opinion is that there will be little upward pressure from real 

wage rates and commodity prices, and that the Federal Reserve is committed to controlling 

inflation while allowing the money supply to grow enough to ensure growth in output. The 

consumer price index is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent a year 

during the 27-year time period--2.2 percent during the immediate period, but increasing to 

3.3 percent over the extended forecast period. 

Fuel Prices

Fuel prices, as measured by the Oil and Gas Deflator, are forecast to increase at an annual rate of 

2.1 percent over the 27-year forecast period—lower than the expected overall inflation rate. 

Between 2003 and 2015, nominal fuel prices are projected to increase 0.7 percent annually, a 

1.5 percent decline annually in real terms. Between 2016 and 2030, nominal fuel prices are 

forecast to increase 3.2 percent annually, a decrease of 0.1 percent annually in real terms. 

Interest Rates

Long-term nominal interest rates are tied to inflationary expectations. The Federal Reserve is 

expected to pursue a monetary policy that keeps inflation in check and allows for sufficient 

money growth to sustain economic output gains. Given the long-term outlook for inflation, longterm interest rates are expected to rise gradually during both the immediate and extended forecast 

periods. Interest rates are expected to increase from 3.9 percent in 2003 to 5.8 percent in 2015 

and rise to 6.9 percent by 2030. 
 

6

ECONOMIC VARIABLES FORECASTS

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

TRILLIO

NS OF 1996 D

OLLA

RS 0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

INDEX: 1996 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

INDEX: 1982-84 = 100

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

PERCENT INTE

REST R

ATE

REAL GDP CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

OIL AND GAS DEFLATOR 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BONDS
 

7

B. Operational Variables

The long-range forecasts of various operational variables discussed below are, for the most part, 

a continuation of the trends discussed in greater detail in FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 

2004-2015. As with the economic projections, these forecasts reflect an average trend of the 

possible paths that the various operational variables could follow. These long-term projections 

represent appropriate points from which to evaluate the effects of variations about the expected 

values of various activity measures, transportation demand and services, or FAA workload 

measures. 

Air Carrier Passenger Yield

The current 12-year and extended 15-year forecasts assume that real domestic passenger yields 

(expressed as revenue per passenger mile) will continue its historical long-term gradual 

downward trend. Real domestic passenger yields are projected to decline by 0.9 percent 

annually over the 27-year period. The downward trend in real domestic yields is based on the 

assumptions of continued strong competition in the industry, and continued improvements in 

efficiency and productivity. 

There has been a long-term decrease in international real yields similar to that experienced in the 

domestic market. However, real yields in international markets are generally lower than in the 

domestic market, because of lower operating costs. These lower costs are associated with longer 

average stage length and with the use of larger aircraft, which tend to have lower seat mile costs. 

It is assumed that productivity and competition will continue to expand in international markets 

over the forecast period, and this will push real yields lower. Market efficiencies will be 

achieved with the use of more productive aircraft, expanded open-skies agreements, and 

extended global alliances. Total international real yields for U.S. flag carriers are expected to 

decline 0.6 percent annually through 2015 and decline 0.3 percent annually between 2016 and 

2030. Over the 27-year period, international yields, adjusted for inflation, are expected to 

decline 0.4 percent a year. 

Average Aircraft Size

The average number of seats per aircraft for the U.S. air carrier domestic fleet is projected to 

grow modestly throughout the immediate 12-year forecast period. Increases in average seats per 

aircraft in the near term will be achieved through retirement of older, smaller aircraft. As a 

result, the increase in seats per aircraft will be somewhat lower than the 12-year average. By 

2005 most of the smaller hush-kitted stage-2 aircraft will have either been replaced with 

generally larger stage-3 aircraft or retired. Over the immediate 12-year forecast period, the 

average seats per aircraft for the domestic fleet is expected to grow by 0.9 seats per year--from 

148.5 in 2003 to 154.0 in 2015. 

The average seating capacity of the domestic air carrier fleet is expected to continue to increase 

over the extended 15-year forecast period. The new aircraft entering the fleet during this period 

are expected to be somewhat larger than the aircraft being replaced. Therefore, the average seats 

per aircraft for the domestic air carrier fleet is expected to increase by 0.8 seats annually over the 

extended forecast period, reaching 165.2 seats in 2030. 
 

8

The average number of seats per aircraft for the U.S. air carrier international fleet is expected to 

grow modestly over the 27-year forecast period as the U.S. carriers expand non-stop city-pair 

service into deep South America, Europe, and Asia. Although U.S. carriers are expected to 

employ larger two-engine, two-aisle aircraft in Atlantic and Pacific markets, the relatively rapid 

growth of the Latin American markets, where aircraft seating capacity is significantly smaller, 

will limit the increases in seats per aircraft. The average number of seats per aircraft in 

international markets is expected to increase from 224.6 seats in 2003 to 231.3 seats in 2030. 

The average seating capacity of regional/commuter aircraft is forecast to increase by 0.7 seats 

annually between 2003 and 2015 (from 44.7 to 53.6 seats). This trend is expected to continue 

over the extended forecast period, with the average seating capacity of regional/commuter 

aircraft averaging approximately 61.1 seats in the year 2030. This reflects the continued 

integration of greater numbers of regional jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) into the regional/commuter 

fleet. The extended range and greater speed offered by these aircraft are expected to expand the 

market potential for the regional industry, and continue to blur the distinction between 

regional/commuters and the large commercial operators. 

Load Factor

Domestic air carrier load factors are projected to remain at their current historical high levels 

throughout the remainder of the immediate and extended forecast periods. During the past 

several years, airline scheduling policies have allowed air carriers to rapidly adjust capacity 

levels to more closely correspond to changes in passenger demand. This ability to make rapid 

adjustments to meet changing demand conditions has enabled the airlines to push up load factors 

to all-time highs. It is expected that present fleet plans will provide capacity levels that should 

maintain the air carrier load factors at between 72 and 77 percent throughout the forecast period. 

As in domestic markets, the wide range of aircraft capable of international flight also allows U.S. 

airlines to adjust their international capacity levels to changing levels of demand. The 

international load factor is also forecast to remain relatively stable during the 27-year forecast 

period, increasing slightly from 75.5 percent in 2003 to 76.5 percent in 2030. 

Regional/commuter load factors are projected to increase from 64.7 percent in 2003 to 

67.1 percent in 2015. During the extended forecast period, regional/commuter load factors are 

expected to rise to 73.0 percent by 2030. The higher load factors result from the continued 

integration of larger regional jet aircraft into new markets and the need to cover the higher cost 

per seat mile associated with these aircraft. 
 

9

OPERATIONAL VARIABLES FORECASTS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

CE

NTS PER RPM IN 2003 DOLLARS 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

PERCENTAGE OF ASMS FILLED

LARGE AIR CARRIER REGIONAL/COMMUTER

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT

REAL DOMESTIC

PASSENGER YIELD

DOMESTIC PASSENGER

LOAD FACTOR

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

DOMESTIC AIR CARRIER AIRCRAFT

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

REGIONAL/COMMUTER AIRCRAFT
 

10

III. LONG-RANGE AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Forecasts of various measures of aviation activity for 2003 and 5-year increments between 2005 

and 2030 are provided in Table 2, page 14. A discussion of some of these measures of aviation 

activity follows in the paragraphs below. 

A. Passenger Enplanements and Cargo 

Air Carrier

Air carrier demand, as measured by domestic passenger enplanements, is projected to continue to 

grow faster than the general economy. For the period 2003 to 2015, domestic passenger 

enplanements for the large carriers are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 

3.6 percent compared to a 3.3 percent annual growth rate in real GDP. Over the extended 

forecast period (2016-2030), domestic passenger enplanements for the large carriers are 

projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.3 percent compared to real GDP growth of 

2.9 percent annually. 

Forecasts of total international passenger traffic to and from the U.S. (U.S. and foreign flag 

carriers), are provided between the United States and three world travel areas--Atlantic, Latin 

America (including Mexico and the Caribbean), and the Pacific/Far East--as well as for 

U.S./Canadian transborder traffic. Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest 

of the world is expected to grow from 116.9 million in 2003 to 369 million in 2030, an average 

annual growth rate of 4.4 percent. Passenger traffic in the Latin American markets is expected to 

post the strongest growth at 5.0 percent annually through 2030. The second fastest growing market 

will be the Pacific market that is projected to grow at 4.8 percent annually during the same time 

period. The Atlantic market is forecast to grow at 4.1 percent annually through 2030, followed by 

U.S./Canadian transborder traffic at 2.7 percent for the 27-year forecast period. 

Regionals/Commuters

Regional/commuter passengers are projected to continue to grow relatively faster than the large 

air carriers through the immediate forecast period with average annual growth of 6.3 percent. A 

large part of the growth during the early years of the immediate forecast period results from the 

continued shift of low-density, short-haul markets from the larger air carriers to their commuter 

code-share partners, a trend that accelerated in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist 

attacks. In the longer run, the distinction between air carrier and regional/commuter flying will 

essentially be eliminated and these carriers will be competing for similar passengers. As a result, 

regional/commuter passenger growth during the extended forecast period will be similar to that 

of the large carriers, averaging 3.5 percent per year. Most of the growth during the extended 

forecast period is expected to result from new markets created by the expanded use of regional 

jet aircraft. 

The introduction and popularity of regional jets is expected to open up new growth opportunities 

in thin, intermediate range markets that cannot be served economically with large jet aircraft. 

The speed and range of the regional jet also offers the opportunity for more point-to-point (hub 

bypass) operations in markets that are currently served only via connecting flights through large 
 

11

hubs. The continued public preference for jet aircraft together with the increasing availability of 

larger (e.g. 70+ seats) regional jets, should ensure that the regional/commuter industry should 

continue to grow rapidly. 

Air Cargo

The air cargo forecast discussed here is comprised of domestic and international revenue 

freight/express and mail carried by U.S. commercial air carriers and is measured by revenue tonmiles (RTMs). Air cargo is moved in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo 

aircraft on both scheduled and non-scheduled service. 

In 2003, combined domestic and international RTMs flown by U.S. commercial air carriers 

totaled 32.9 billion. By 2015 this figure is projected to reach 56.0 billion, an average annual 

increase of 4.5 percent. During the extended forecast period, total domestic and international 

cargo RTMs is projected to total 97.1 billion RTMs, an average annual increase of 3.7 percent. 

Over the entire 27-year period, growth in total air cargo RTMs is expected to average 4.1 percent 

annually. 

Domestic RTMs are forecast to increase from 14.7 billion in 2003 to 34.6 billion in 2030, an 

average annual increase of 3.2 percent over the 27-year forecast period. International RTMs are 

forecast to grow at a faster rate than domestic RTMs, increasing from 18.2 billion in 2003 to 

62.5 billion in 2030, averaging 4.7 percent growth annually for the 27-year forecast period. This 

expectation is based on the projected economic growth in world GDP, with the highest rates of 

growth expected in the Latin American and Asian regions. 

B. Aircraft Fleets and Hours Flown 

Commercial Air Carriers

The commercial air carrier passenger jet fleet is forecast to increase at an annual rate of 

2.9 percent from 4,090 aircraft in 2003 to 5,732 aircraft in 2015. The size of the fleet grows 

modestly from the low point in 2003 as carriers add aircraft to accommodate growing demand 

following the industry downturn that began in early 2001 and was exacerbated by the September 

11th terror attacks and the subsequent restructuring of the industry. Starting in 2005, the 

passenger jet fleet grows at an annual rate of 2.8 percent per year through 2015. By far the 

largest increase, in terms of number of aircraft, is projected to occur in the two-engine 

narrowbody aircraft category, which is expected to grow by an average of over 112 aircraft 

(2.9 percent) annually. By 2015, the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category is expected to 

total 4,721 units and account for 82.4 percent of the fleet. This trend is also expected to continue 

throughout the extended forecast period. 

Between 2015 and 2030, the air carrier fleet is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 

2.8 percent, reaching a total of 8,713 aircraft. Again, the largest growth in the fleet is expected 

to occur in the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category. In 2030, this category is forecast to 

grow to 7,355 units and account for more than 84 percent of the fleet. 
 

12

The cargo jet fleet is projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.9 percent during the immediate 

12-year forecast period, from 942 aircraft in 2003 to 1,332 in 2015. During the extended 15-year 

forecast period, the cargo jet fleet is forecast to increase at a 2.4 percent average annual rate 

reaching 1,903 aircraft by 2030. Over the entire 27-year forecast period, the cargo jet fleet is 

forecast to grow at the same rate as the passenger fleet (2.6 percent), despite the expected higher 

sustained growth in cargo traffic--especially international traffic. 

The regional/commuter fleet is expected to grow from its current 2,672 aircraft in 2003 to 5,939 

by the year 2030. This is an average annual growth rate of 3.0 percent over the 27-year forecast 

period, or an increase of approximately 121 aircraft annually. These totals reflect the continued 

growth in the regional jet fleet, especially the larger versions (70+ seats), which will be 

introduced into the fleet in significant numbers over the forecast period. 

The number of hours flown by the large commercial passenger and cargo jet aircraft is forecast 

to increase by 3.5 percent annually between 2004 and 2015, and by 3.0 percent annually between 

2016 and 2030. The immediate and extended range fleet forecasts imply that U.S. air carriers 

will use larger aircraft and operate at continued high load factors to accommodate increasing 

passenger demand. Regional/commuter block hours are forecast to increase at an average annual 

rate of 3.6 percent during the same time period--from 5.9 million hours in 2003 to 15.4 million in 

2030. 

General Aviation Aircraft & Hours Flown

The number of active general aviation aircraft is expected to increase from 211,190 aircraft in 

2003 to 246,415 in 2015, and then expand to 278,210 by 2030. This represents an average 

annual growth of 1.3 percent during the immediate forecast period and 0.8 percent over the 

extended forecast period. The piston engine portion of the general aviation fixed-wing aircraft 

fleet is forecast to increase by 0.2 percent during both the immediate and extended forecast 

periods. Fixed-wing turbine powered general aviation aircraft are expected to increase 

3.7 percent annually between 2004 and 2015, and by 3.2 percent during the 2015 to 2030 period. 

The higher growth rate for the turbine portion of the fleet is based on the expectations of a 

greater business and corporate use of general aviation aircraft in an expanding U.S. economy. 

Growth in general aviation flight hours is forecast to increase at a faster rate than the active fleet. 

General aviation activity is very sensitive to changes in fuel price and variations in the rate of 

economic growth. Based on the assumptions of sustained economic growth, relative stability in 

real fuel prices, and the continued growth in fractional ownership programs and corporate flying, 

it is expected that aircraft utilization rates will return to or surpass the higher levels experienced 

prior to the 1990-1991 economic recession. As such, general aviation flight hours are forecast to 

grow 1.7 percent annually during both the immediate and extended forecast periods increasing 

from 26.7 million in 2003 to 32.7 million in 2015, and to 41.9 million in 2030. 

The positive forecasts for general aviation fleet and flight hours are heavily dependent on the 

assumptions related to continued economic growth and price stability. However, equally 

important to future growth are continued investment in plant expansion and production by 

general aviation manufacturers and the success of industry programs, such as “GA Team 2000,” 

to foster the growth in number of student pilots. If the general aviation industry falters in its 
 

13

efforts to stimulate the production of new general aviation products and services, and/or the 

growth in the number of student pilots, the outlook for the active fleet, hours flown, and general 

aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities could be considerably lower than the current 

projections. 

C. Pilot Population

The total pilot population is forecast to increase from 625,011 in 2003 to 917,605 by the year 

2030, an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent over the 27-year forecast period. The largest 

growth is found in the airline transport and private pilot categories. Recent industry program 

initiatives designed to promote the benefits of general aviation flying to businesses and the 

public, to stimulate growth in the number of new student pilots, and to develop an improved 

flight training infrastructure contribute to the growth in the pilot population while the continuing 

growth in air transport demand fuels the increase in the airline transport category. During this 

same time period, the number of instrument rated pilots is expected to increase from 315,413 to 

485,000. The instrument rated pilot share of the total pilot population increases from 

50.5 percent in 2003 to 52.9 percent in 2030. 

D. Total Aviation Activity

Total civil aircraft activity at towered airports (266 FAA and 218 contract in 2003) and nontowered airports (based on projections for just under 4,000 public use airports in the Terminal 

Area Forecast database) is forecast to reach 161.9 million by the year 2030, an average annual 

growth of 1.1 percent over the activity level forecast for 2015 (137.4 million operations). This in 

turn is an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent over the 120.5 million total aircraft 

operations recorded in 2003. 

Commercial aircraft operations (the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at all U.S. airports, 

towered and non-towered, are projected to increase from 28.1 million in 2003 to 36.9 million in 

2015, and to 50.2 million in 2030. These forecasts imply an average annual growth rate of 

2.3 percent over the immediate forecast period, and 2.1 percent over the extended forecast 

period. 

The number of general aviation operations at towered and non-towered airports is forecast to 

increase from 86.7 million in 2003 to 94.8 million in 2015 and to 105.2 million in 2030. These 

forecasts imply an average annual growth rate of 0.7 percent over both the immediate and 

extended forecast periods. Much of the growth is the result of increased use of the turbine fleet 

for business/corporate related flying. 
 

14

 TABLE 2

LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

AVIATION DEMAND AND ACTIVITY

Actual March 2004 Forecast Long Range Forecast

2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Enplanements and 

Air Cargo (In Millions)

Enplanements 

 Commercial Air Carriers 

 Domestic* 482.2 502.4 529.0 624.1 738.4 861.0 1,007.8 1,203.9 

 International** 116.9 127.9 137.7 173.0 212.5 256.5 307.4 369.0 

 Regional/Commuter 108.7 128.7 143.6 184.9 226.2 274.1 324.4 380.5 

Freight/Express RTMs 32.9 34.1 36.0 45.4 56.0 67.8 81.1 97.1 

Aircraft Fleets

(in Thousands) 

Air Carrier-Large Jets*** 4.1 4.1 4.2 5.0 5.7 6.6 7.6 8.7 

Cargo-Jet Aircraft 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 

Regional/Commuter 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.9 

 Regional Jets 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.2 

 Turboprops 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 

General Aviation 

 Piston Engine 160.9 160.8 161.1 163.5 164.9 166.6 168.7 170.2 

 Turbine Engine 15.4 15.6 16.5 20.5 23.6 27.7 32.5 38.0 

 Helicopters 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.7 

 Experimental/Other 26.9 26.9 44.5 48.0 50.6 54.2 58.1 62.3 

Hours Flown

(In Millions) 

Air Carrier 12.6 13.2 13.8 16.4 19.0 22.0 25.5 29.7 

Regional/Commuter**** 5.9 6.4 6.9 8.3 10.2 12.0 13.7 15.4 

General Aviation 26.7 27.2 27.9 30.3 32.7 35.4 38.4 41.9 

Active Pilots

(In Thousands) 

Total 625.0 638.9 654.4 705.9 755.5 808.1 861.8 917.6 

Instrument Rated 315.4 318.5 323.3 355.8 385.5 417.4 450.0 485.0 

Estimated U. S. 

Civil Operations

(In Millions) 

Commercial 28.1 29.0 29.9 33.1 36.9 40.8 45.1 50.2 

General Aviation 86.7 87.4 88.1 91.4 94.8 98.1 101.6 105.2 

* Large Commercial Carriers only (excluding Form 41 Commuters) 

** Total international passengers to and from the United States—U.S. and Foreign Flag carriers 

*** Including EMB-190’s 

**** Block Hours 
 

15

AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MILLIONS OF PSGRS

Domestic International

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

TH

OUSANDS OF AIRCRAFT

Air Carrier Regional/Commuter

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MILLIONS OF PSGRS

Domestic International

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

THOUSANDS OF AIRCRAFT

Piston Turbine/Rotor/Other

AIR CARRIER ENPLANEMENTS

REGIONAL/COMMUTER

PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEET GENERAL AVIATION FLEET
 

16

IV. LONG-RANGE WORKLOAD MEASURE FORECASTS

Forecasts of FAA workload measures by user groups for 2003 and 5-year increments between 

2005 and 2030 are provided in Table 2, page 19. A discussion of the forecasts follows in the 

paragraphs below. 

A. Towered Operations

At the end of FY 2003 the number of FAA towers totaled 266, down from 402 in 1994. During 

this same period of time, the number of FAA contract towers has increased from 34 to 218. An 

additional 13 contract towers are expected to be added in 2004, bringing the total number of 

contract towers to 231. Given the uncertainty about current and future year conversions and 

additions, the forecasts presented in this document are combined forecasts independent of the 

distinction between FAA and contract tower status. 

Aircraft operations at combined FAA and contract towered airports are forecast to total 

80.3 million in 2015 and 103.7 million in 2030--an average annual growth rate of 1.9 percent 

over the 27-year forecast period. Most of the growth is expected to come in commercial activity, 

which is projected to grow 2.8 percent annually during the immediate forecast period and 

2.3 percent annually during the extended forecast period. The slower growth in commercial 

activity relative to enplanements (4.3 and 3.4 percent during the immediate and extended 

forecast periods) is due to a combination of continued high load factors, larger aircraft, and 

longer passenger trip lengths.

Although regional/commuter enplanements increase at a faster rate than the larger air carriers 

over the 27-year forecast period (4.7 percent compared to 3.6 percent), commuter/air taxi 

operations increase more slowly than air carrier operations (2.4 percent compared to 2.8 percent). 

The commuter/air taxi activity growth is largely due to the large numbers of the regional jet 

aircraft that are expected to enter the regional/commuter fleet over the forecast period. As such, 

regional/commuter average aircraft size, load factors, and passenger trip lengths all increase at 

significantly faster rates than do those of the larger air carriers. 

General aviation activity, which accounted for 56.5 percent of combined tower activity in 2003, 

grows at a considerably slower pace relative to commercial activity over the 27-year forecast 

period—1.2 percent. In both the immediate (1.1 percent annually) and extended (1.3 percent 

annually) forecast periods, general aviation activity grows at a considerably slower pace than 

commercial activity. In the year 2030, general aviation is expected to account for 50.7 percent of 

combined tower activity. Military activity is projected to grow to 3.1 million operations by 2005 

and remain at that level through the balance of the immediate and the extended forecast periods. 
 

17

B. Instrument Operations

Instrument operations at combined FAA and contract-towered airports are forecast to total 

61.6 million in 2015 and 82.1 million in 2030, an average annual growth rate of 2.1 and 

1.9 percent respectively, during the immediate and extended forecast periods. Most of the 

growth is expected to come from commercial activity, which is projected to grow 2.8 percent 

annually during the immediate and 2.3 percent annually during the extended forecast period. Air 

carrier instrument activity is forecast to grow 2.8 percent annually during the immediate forecast 

period and 2.7 percent during the extended forecast period. Commuter/air taxi activity is 

forecast to increase at a 2.8 percent annual rate during the immediate forecast period and 

1.9 percent annually over the extended forecast period. 

General aviation activity is projected to increase at a slower pace, averaging 1.4 percent through 

the immediate forecast period and 1.3 percent during the extended forecast period. Military 

activity is forecast to remain constant at the 3.3 million operations recorded in 2003. 

Commercial activity is expected to increase from 54.6 percent of total instrument activity at 

combined FAA and contract towers in 2003 to 63.5 percent by the year 2030. 

C. ARTCC Aircraft Handled

The number of aircraft handled at FAA en route traffic control centers is forecast to reach 

58.4 million in 2015 and 80.2 million in 2030, an average growth rate of 2.4 and 2.1 percent for 

the immediate and extended forecast periods, respectively. Most of the growth occurs in the 

number of commercial aircraft handled, which increases by 2.9 percent annually during the 

immediate forecast period and 2.5 percent annually during the extended time period. The 

number of air carrier aircraft handled increases by an average annual rate of 2.9 percent in the 

immediate time period and then slows to 2.7 percent in the extended time period. The number of 

commuter/air taxi aircraft handled is forecast to increase by 2.8 percent annually during the 

immediate forecast period and 1.9 percent over the extended forecast period—averaging 

2.3 percent over the entire 28-year period. 

The number of general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en route centers increases at a slower 

rate over the two forecast periods, 1.6 and 1.3 percent annually during the respective forecast 

periods. The number of military aircraft handled is forecast to remain constant at the 3.9 million 

recorded in 2003 through 2030. 

By the end of the 27-year forecast period, commercial activity is expected to account for 

80.6 percent of the total center activity, up from 72.9 percent in 2003. 
 

18

D. Flight Services

The number of services provided by FAA flight service stations is forecast to increase from a 

total of 27.7 million in 2003 to 30.8 million in 2015 and 35.3 million in 2030, an annual increase 

of 0.9 percent in both the immediate and extended time periods. The average annual growth 

rates for each of the three flight service categories for the immediate and extended forecast 

periods are: flight plans originated: up 0.4 and 0.9 percent; pilot briefs up 1.2 and 0.9 percent; 

and number of aircraft contacted; up 1.1 percent and 0.9 percent for the two forecast periods. 

Automated services provided through the Direct User Access Terminal System (DUATS) are 

forecast to grow throughout the forecast periods. DUATS services are projected to increase at a 

2.1 percent annual rate in the immediate forecast period and total 22.5 million in 2015. The 

growth in DUATS services is then projected to slow to 1.5 percent annually during the extended 

forecast period resulting in a DUATS service total of 28.1 million in 2030. During the 27-year 

period, the combined FSS and DUATS services are forecast to increase at an average annual rate 

of 1.2 percent. 

These forecasts of FSS and DUATS services assume that there will be no change in the current 

definitions of flight service measures or any change in the manner in which they are delivered to 

the general aviation pilot. There is, however, significant uncertainty concerning the impact of 

technology on the set of flight services to be provided by the FAA in the future. As more 

specific information becomes known about the future flight service system the forecasts will be 

adjusted accordingly. 
 

19

 TABLE 3

LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES

(In Millions)

Actual March 2004 Forecast Long Range Forecast

2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tower Operations* 

Total 62.7 64.8 67.6 73.5 80.3 87.5 95.1 103.7

 Itinerant 46.0 47.5 49.5 54.4 60.1 66.0 72.2 79.4

 Air Carrier 12.8 13.1 13.7 15.6 17.9 20.4 23.1 26.6 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 11.4 12.1 12.7 14.3 16.0 17.8 19.6 21.4 

 General Aviation 20.2 20.8 21.5 23.0 24.5 26.1 27.9 29.7 

 Military 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 

Local 16.7 17.3 18.0 19.1 20.3 21.5 22.8 24.3

 General Aviation 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.6 18.8 20.0 21.4 22.8 

 Military 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 

 

 

Instrument Operations *

Total 48.2 49.6 51.0 56.2 62.1 68.2 74.6 82.1

 Air Carrier 14.0 14.3 14.9 17.0 19.6 22.3 25.2 29.0 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 12.3 13.0 13.7 15.4 17.2 19.2 21.1 23.0 

 General Aviation 18.6 19.0 19.2 20.5 22.0 23.5 25.0 26.7 

 Military 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 

ARTCC Aircraft Handled

Total 43.7 45.1 46.8 52.0 58.4 64.9 71.8 80.2

 Air Carrier 22.7 23.4 24.5 27.8 32.1 36.5 41.3 47.6 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 9.1 9.7 10.1 11.4 12.8 14.2 15.6 17.1 

 General Aviation 8.0 8.2 8.3 9.0 9.7 10.3 11.0 11.7 

 Military 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 

FSS Flight Services

Total 27.7 27.8 27.8 29.1 30.8 32.4 33.8 35.3

 Pilot Briefs 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.3 

 Flight Plans Filed 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.5 

 Aircraft Contacts 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3 4 3.5 3.7 

DUATS Services 17.5 18.2 18.6 20.4 22.5 24.5 26.4 28.1

* Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers. 

 Note: Totals may not add due to independent rounding.
 

20

FAA WORKLOAD FORECASTS

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED FLIGHT SERVICES