DHS COMPARATIVE 

REPORTS 25

DESIRED NUMBER OF CHILDREN: 

2000-2008

FEBRUARY 2010

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). It was prepared by 

Charles F. Westoff of the Office of Population Research, Princeton University.
MEASURE DHS assists countries worldwide in the collection and use of data to monitor and 

evaluate population, health, and nutrition programs. Additional information about the 

MEASURE DHS project can be obtained by contacting ICF Macro, Demographic and Health 

Research Division, 11785 Beltsville Drive, Suite 300, Calverton, MD 20705 (telephone: 301-

572-0200; fax: 301-572-0999; e-mail: reports@macrointernational.com; internet: 

www.measuredhs.com). 

The main objectives of the MEASURE DHS project are: 

 to provide decisionmakers in survey countries with information useful for informed 

policy choices; 

 to expand the international population and health database; 

 to advance survey methodology; and 

 to develop in participating countries the skills and resources necessary to conduct highquality demographic and health surveys. 
DHS Comparative Reports No. 25 

Desired Number of Children: 2000-2008

Charles F. Westoff 

ICF Macro 

Calverton, Maryland, USA 

February 2010 

Address for correspondence: Charles F. Westoff, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Wallace 

Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544-2901, USA; Phone: 609-258-5867; Email: westoff@princeton.edu. 
Editor: Bryant Robey 

Document Production: Yuan Gu and Shanxiao Wang 

This study was carried out with support provided by the United States Agency for International 

Development (USAID) through the MEASURE DHS project (#GPO-C-00-08-00008-00). The 

views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or 

the United States Government. 

Recommended citation: 

Westoff, Charles F. 2010. Desired Number of Children: 2000-2008. DHS Comparative Reports 

No. 25. Calverton, Maryland, USA: ICF Macro. 
iii

Contents 

Tables ...............................................................................................................................................v

Appendix Tables ..............................................................................................................................v

Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii

Preface ............................................................................................................................................ ix

Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... xi

Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... xiii

1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................1

2 Ideal Number of Children and Reproductive Intentions .......................................................3

3 Trends in Reproductive Preferences ......................................................................................7

4 Planning of Recent Births and Wanted Fertility Rates ........................................................19

5 Trends in Wanted, Unwanted and Total Fertility Rates ......................................................23

6 Men’s Reproductive Preferences .........................................................................................31

7 The Influence of Education and Development ....................................................................37

8 Reproductive Preferences and Unmet Need ........................................................................43

9 Summary and Conclusions ..................................................................................................49

References ......................................................................................................................................51

Appendix A: Measures of Reproductive Preferences ....................................................................53

v 

Tables 

Table 2.1. Ideal number of children and the percentage of married women who want no more 

children ..........................................................................................................................4

Table 4.1. Planning status of births in the five years preceding the survey ..................................19

Table 5.1. Decline in the total fertility rate and in its wanted and unwanted components ...........28

Table 6.1. Ideal number of children and percentage who want no more children for currently 

married men in sub-Saharan Africa and several countries in other regions. ...............31

Table 6.2. Recent trends in differences in male-female average number of children desired in 

sub-Saharan African countries .....................................................................................35

Table 7.1. Wanted fertility and socio-economic development in developing countries ...............41

Table 8.1. Characteristics of five African countries with low unmet need and high 

reproductive preferences ..............................................................................................44

Table 8.2. Multivariate analysis of factors associated with the number of children desired by 

married women (standardized partial regression coefficients) ....................................46

Table 8.3. Multivariate logistic regression (odds ratios) of factors affecting intention to use 

contraception among married women who have never used any method. ..................47

Appendix Tables 

Table A-1. Correlations of indicators of reproductive preferences ...............................................55

vii 

Figures 

Figure 3.1. Trends in the average ideal number of children for never-married women under 

25 years of age for selected countries ..........................................................................8 

Figure 3.2. Trends in the percentage of currently married women who want no more children 

for women with two or three children for selected countries .....................................13 

Figure 5.1. Trends in wanted, unwanted and total fertility rates for selected countries ...............24 

Figure 6.1. Trends in mean ideal number of children for currently married men in subSaharan Africa ............................................................................................................33 

Figure 6.2. Trends in the proportion of married men in sub-Saharan African countries who 

want no more children ................................................................................................34 

Figure 7.1. Trends in the percentage who want no more children among married women with 

no education for selected countries ............................................................................38

ix

Preface 

One of the most significant contributions of the MEASURE DHS program is the creation of an 

internationally comparable body of data on the demographic and health characteristics of populations in 

developing countries. The DHS Comparative Reports series examines these data across countries in a 

comparative framework. The DHS Analytical Studies series focuses on specific topics. The principal 

objectives of both series are to provide information for policy formulation at the international level and to 

examine individual country results in an international context. Whereas Comparative Reports are 

primarily descriptive, Analytical Studies have a more analytical approach. 

The Comparative Reports series covers a variable number of countries, depending on the 

availability of data sets. Where possible, data from previous DHS surveys are used to evaluate trends over 

time. Each report provides detailed tables and graphs organized by region. Survey-related issues such as 

questionnaire comparability, survey procedures, data quality, and methodological approaches are 

addressed as needed. 

The topics covered in Comparative Reports are selected by MEASURE DHS staff in conjunction 

with the U.S. Agency for International Development. Some reports are updates of previously published 

reports. 

It is anticipated that the availability of comparable information for a large number of developing 

countries will enhance the understanding of important issues in the fields of international population and 

health by analysts and policymakers. 

Ann Way 

Project Director

xi 

Acknowledgments 

The author would like to thank Judie Miller at the Office of Population Research, Princeton 

University for help in the production of the tables and figures in this report, Guillermo Rojas of DHS for 

help in the production of a table, Luis Ochoa of DHS for help in finding more recent data for Brazil and 

Guatemala, and John Casterline of Ohio State University for sending me estimates of unwanted fertility 

based on a new method. 

xiii 

Executive Summary 

This report is a review of reproductive preferences in 60 countries based on data from 

Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 1998 and 2008. Several measures of 

preferences are used: the number of children considered ideal, the proportion of women who want no 

more children, the planning status of recent births, and the Wanted Total Fertility Rate. For those 

countries that have conducted more than one survey, trends in reproductive preferences have been 

documented. For a subset of mostly sub-Saharan African countries, men’s reproductive attitudes are also 

described. 

A review of the most recent DHS estimates of levels and trends of reproductive preferences 

indicates that the number of children desired is declining in most of the developing world with the 

exception of some countries in western and middle sub-Saharan Africa where, on the whole, an average 

of 6.0 children are still desired. In southern and eastern Africa, the mean number desired is 4.5. In 

contrast, in Asia and in North Africa the average is 2.9 and in Latin America and the Caribbean 3.0 

children. 

In most of the 60 countries reviewed, there has been a decline in the Total Fertility Rate which is 

due largely to a decline in the number of children wanted rather than to a reduction of unwanted births. 

The highest proportion of unwanted births is in Latin America and the Caribbean, as high as 39 percent of 

all recent births in Bolivia. 

Among men, the number of children desired follows a similar pattern to that of women but 

typically at slightly higher levels. There is little evidence that this gender difference is diminishing. 

Although the long-familiar negative association between women’s education and reproductive 

preferences continues, there is evidence of a decline in preferences among women with no formal 

education even in sub-Saharan Africa but more strongly in Asia and Latin America. 

A special analysis of unmet need and reproductive preferences focuses on several countries in 

sub-Saharan countries where unmet need is low because preferences are very high (Chad, Guinea, 

Mozambique, Niger and Nigeria). The number of children desired is associated with child mortality, 

Muslim affiliation, women’s education and empowerment, and exposure to the mass media. 

1 

1 Introduction 

Information on the number of children desired and trends in that number lie at the heart of family 

planning and population policy concerns. In particular, this information can identify populations with a 

demand for services and inform the interpretation of trends in contraceptive prevalence and fertility. 

Several measures of reproductive preferences are now in standard use: the desired or ideal number of 

children, reproductive intentions – particularly the proportion of women that report wanting no more 

children – the planning status of recent births, and Wanted and Unwanted Total Fertility Rates. There are 

many issues surrounding the quality of these measures including basic questions of reliability and validity 

and their predictive utility. These issues are discussed in Appendix A of this report. 

Although the report contains several new directions of analysis, the main objective is to record 

the most recent estimates of reproductive preferences for a large number of developing countries and to 

describe trends in different measures of preferences for the growing number of countries that have 

conducted more than one survey. With the exception of the trend analyses, the focus is largely on surveys 

since the turn of the century. In the main, the report is an update of the three earlier DHS reports on the 

same subject (Westoff and Bankole, 2002; Adetunji, 1998; Bankole and Westoff, 1995; and Westoff, 

1991). These earlier reports, in turn, are successors to a similar publication based on the World Fertility 

Surveys (United Nations, 1985; Kent and Larson, 1982). With the exception of Brazil (Brazilian Ministry 

of Health, 2008) and Guatemala (Ministerio de Salud Publica, 2002), this report is based entirely on data 

collected in the DHS project. 

3 

2 Ideal Number of Children and Reproductive Intentions 

The most recent estimates of two of the basic indicators of reproductive preferences – the ideal 

number of children and the proportion of women who want no more children – are shown in Table 2.1. 

All but a few of these surveys were conducted since the turn of the century. 

The mean number of children considered ideal – also known as the desired number of children - 

is based on responses to the survey question: “If you could go back to the time you did not have any 

children and could choose exactly the number of children to have in your whole life, how many would 

that be?” A shorter version of the question was asked of women who did not have any children. A small 

number of women responded to this question with non-numeric responses such as “It’s up to God” or 

“don’t know”. In most countries, this type of response was in single digits but tended to be greater 

(between 10-20 percent) mainly in some countries in western and middle Africa. 

The mean number of children desired by married women in the 18 recent surveys conducted in 

Asia and North Africa ranges from 2 in Ukraine and India to 4 in Jordan and Pakistan. In Latin America 

and the Caribbean the range is from 2.2 in Brazil to 3.7 in Guatemala. The highest ideal numbers are 

clearly evident in western and middle Africa ranging from 4.8 in Ghana to 9.2 in Chad and 9.1 in Niger, 

with an average of 6.1 children. Cape Verde is a distinct outlier here with a desired number of 2.8 

children. The countries of eastern and southern Africa are also on the high side but generally lower than 

in western and middle Africa, ranging from 2.7 in Swaziland to 6.3 in Eritrea, with an average of 4.5. 

Since the number of children desired can be influenced by the existing number of children, a 

separate calculation for women with 2 children (or with 1 child and currently pregnant) is also shown in 

Table 2.1. The number 2 was selected because virtually all women in developing countries want at least 2 

children. This statistic typically runs somewhat lower in value than the estimate for all married women 

but generally shows the same overall international picture. 

The second indicator of reproductive preferences included in Table 2.1 is a measure of the desire 

not to have any additional children. This information is derived from the response to a direct question: 

“Would you like to have (a/another) child or would you prefer not to have any (more) children?” Women 

who have been sterilized for contraceptive reasons or whose husbands have had such an operation are 

regarded as not wanting any more children. Since the proportion wanting no more children is obviously 

associated with the existing number of children, the estimates in Table 2.1 are shown not only for all 

(married) women but also for women with 2, 3 or 4 children. 

The estimates for Asian and North African countries are quite consistent with the picture for ideal 

number of children. If we focus on women with 2 children, the lowest proportions of women who say 

they want no more children are in Jordan and Pakistan, 22 and 27 percent respectively. The highest value 

is for Vietnam where 92 percent of women with 2 children report not wanting any more. 

Haiti, Honduras and Guatemala in the Latin America and Caribbean group show the lowest 

proportions intending to cease childbearing. Guatemala in particular shows that only 70 percent of 

women who already have 4 children report that they want no more. Brazil is at the opposite extreme with 

98 percent wanting no more. 
4 

Table 2.1. Ideal number of children and the percentage of married women who want no more children.

Country

Survey 

Year

Mean Ideal Number of 

Children

Percentage Who Want No More 

Children2

All 

Married 

Women

Married 

Women 

with 2 

Children1

All Married 

Women

Number of 

Children

2 3 4

ASIA AND NORTH 

AFRICA

Armenia 2005 2.7 2.6 71 79 91 93

Azerbaijan 2006 2.6 2.5 72 84 92 93

Bangladesh 2007 2.3 2.2 62 74 89 93

Cambodia 2005 3.2 3.6 57 47 70 85

Egypt 2008 2.9 2.6 63 59 88 92

India 2005/06 2.1 2.4 70 83 90 92

Indonesia 2007 2.8 2.6 53 62 79 85

Jordan 2007 4.0 3.4 50 22 39 64

Kazakhstan 1999 3.0 2.7 58 65 76 80

Moldova 2005 NA NA 64 83 89 89

Morocco 2003/04 3.3 2.8 54 44 64 82

Nepal 2006 2.4 2.1 71 83 91 93

Pakistan 2006/07 4.1 3.6 52 27 54 73

Philippines 2003 3.2 2.9 61 56 78 85

Turkey 2003 2.5 2.3 69 80 90 92

Turkmenistan 2000 3.7 3.1 55 43 64 86

Ukraine 2007 2.0 2.2 58 80 88 68

Vietnam 2002 2.4 2.2 75 92 94 95

LATIN AMERICA 

AND THE CARIBBEAN

Bolivia 2003 2.7 2.4 71 67 83 91

Brazil 2006 2.2 2.2 70 89 95 98

Colombia 2005 2.4 2.3 71 79 92 94

Dominican Republic 2007 3.2 3.0 66 61 91 94

Guatemala 2002 3.7 3.0 53 52 68 70

Haiti 2005/06 3.2 3.0 52 53 72 81

Honduras 2005/06 3.3 2.8 58 51 76 82

Nicaragua 2001 3.2 2.7 65 64 80 86

Peru 2004/08 2.6 2.4 65 65 83 90

(Cont’d)
5 

Table 2.1. – cont’d

Country

Survey 

Year

Mean Ideal Number of 

Children

Percentage Who Want No More 

Children2

All 

Married 

Women

Married 

Women 

with 2 

Children1

All Married 

Women

Number of 

Children

2 3 4

WESTERN AND 

MIDDLE AFRICA

Benin 2006 5.2 4.8 27 8 19 35

Burkina Faso 2003 5.8 5.4 23 6 14 26

Cameroon 2004 6.1 5.7 21 9 15 30

Cape Verde 2005 2.8 2.5 49 71 84 94

Chad 2004 9.2 8.1 8 3 4 7

Congo (Brazzaville ) 2005 5.4 5.0 19 7 12 27

Congo Democratic Rep. 2007 6.8 6.3 20 8 16 22

Cote d' Ivoire 1998/99 5.9 5.3 21 4 14 24

Gabon 2000 5.4 4.9 23 12 17 28

Ghana 2008 4.6 4.2 36 18 36 57

Guinea 2005 5.9 5.6 22 7 13 24

Liberia 2007 5.4 4.8 31 10 27 37

Mali 2006 6.4 5.9 19 7 11 21

Mauritania 2000/01 6.8 6.0 19 11 15 22

Niger 2006 9.1 8.7 9 3 4 5

Nigeria 2008 6.7 6.1 20 5 13 26

Senegal 2005 5.7 5.6 21 4 12 22

Sierra Leone 2008 5.3 4.9 30 13 29 45

EASTERN AND 

SOUTHERN AFRICA

Eritrea 2002 6.3 5.8 18 6 10 22

Ethiopia 2005 5.1 4.6 42 27 31 50

Kenya 2003 4.3 3.6 49 34 50 67

Lesotho 2004 3.5 3.4 54 51 72 85

Madagascar 2003/04 5.1 4.3 41 26 46 58

Malawi 2004 4.3 3.8 41 25 38 58

Mozambique 2003 5.7 5.1 24 11 20 31

Namibia 2006/07 3.7 3.2 60 54 68 73

Rwanda 2007/08 3.6 3.3 49 3 57 72

South Africa 2003 2.9 2.6 61 66 75 80

Swaziland 2006/07 2.7 2.5 68 65 81 82

Tanzania 2004/05 5.4 4.7 29 13 25 41

Uganda 2006 5.3 4.6 41 16 24 44

Zambia 2007 5.1 4.4 36 16 24 41

Zimbabwe 2005/06 4.1 3.6 44 39 53 72

1

Includes currently pregnant women with one child.

2 Women who are sterilized or whose husbands are sterilized are regarded as wanting no more children.
6 

In sub-Saharan Africa, Chad and Niger stand out clearly with the lowest proportions intending to 

terminate childbearing. Only 8-9 percent want no more children among all married women with even 

lower proportions in this category among those with 4 children. To express this differently, in these two 

countries around 95 percent of women with 4 children continue to want more children, an estimate that 

drops only to around 75 percent among women with 6 or more children. In west Africa, Ghana is at the 

opposite extreme with about half of women with 4 children who want no more children. Again, Cape 

Verde is at the extreme with 94 percent of those with 4 children who want no more. 

In the southern and eastern Africa grouping, women in Eritrea show the lowest expressed desire 

to cease childbearing with 22 percent of those with 4 children indicating this intention. This is consistent 

with the very high desired number of children in that country. The most inclined to want no more 

children are in Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa, an observation probably related in part to the high 

prevalence of HIV/AIDS. In these three countries, 80 to 85 percent of women with 4 children want no 

more. 
7 

3 Trends in Reproductive Preferences 

Since the number of children desired is influenced by the existing number of children, the 

analysis of trends in this measure is focused here on women under 25 years of age who have not yet 

married, very few of whom have had children (the trends among women 15-49 are very similar). 

Observations about the reproductive preferences of younger women also may elucidate forthcoming 

trends in the desired number of children. These trends, depicted in Figure 3.1, generally but not 

universally show a decline in the average ideal number. It is important to note that the trend data here and 

throughout this report are based on varying intervals of time between surveys. 

Some of the highlights of this review are continuing declines in the number of children desired in 

India, Jordan, Morocco and Nepal but no change in 15 years in Egypt, Indonesia and Pakistan. There are 

declines in most of the Latin American and Caribbean countries here. 

The picture is mixed in western and middle Africa with declines predominating but with major 

exceptions in Chad and Niger. The increase in the number desired in Nigeria between 1990 and 1999 

may be misleading since the percent of women offering non-numeric responses in the first survey in 1990 

reached nearly two-thirds, a figure that dropped to 18 percent by 1999. Moreover, as will be seen in the 

analysis of the trend in the intention to have no more children, Nigeria is more in line with other 

countries. But in Chad and in Niger there is no such explanation of what appears to be an increase in the 

ideal number of children, exceeding eight children in both countries. In contrast, there are significant 

declines in Cameroon, Ghana, Liberia, Senegal and Togo. 

In most of the countries of eastern and southern Africa, there is a continuing downward trend in 

the ideal number. In Kenya, following a slow decline from 4.2 in 1989 to 3.6 in 1998, the desired number 

reversed and climbed back to 3.9 in 2003. This is consistent with the observed stall in contraceptive 

prevalence and fertility observed for Kenya by 2003 (Westoff and Cross, 2006). Declines are clear in 

Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. 
8 

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.7

3.0

2.9

3.9

3.8

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.3

3.3

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.2

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

0 2 4 6 8

2002

Vietnam 1997

2003

1998

Turkey 1993

2003

1998

Philippines 1993

2006/07

Pakistan 1991

2006

2001

Nepal 1996

2003/04

1992

Morocco 1987

2007

2002

1997

Jordan 1990

2007

2002/03

1997

1994

1991

Indonesia 1987

2005/06

1998/99

India 1992/93

2005

2000

1995

1992

Egypt 1988

2005

Cambodia 2000

2007

2004

1999/00

1996/97

Bangladesh 1993/94

2005

Armenia 2000

Figure 3.1. Trends i n the average ideal number of children for never-married women under 2 5 years of age

in Asia and North Africa.

Ideal Number of Children
9 

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.6

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.0

2.6

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

0 2 4 6 8

2004/08

2000

1996

1992

Peru 1986

2001

Nicaragua 1998

2005/06

2000

Haiti 1994/95

1998/99

1995

Guatemala 1987

2007

2002

1999

1996

1991

Dominican Republic 1986

2005

2000

1995

1990

Colombia 1986

1996

Brazil 1986

2003

1998

1994

Bolivia 1989

Figure 3.1 (continued). Trends in the average ideal number of children for never-married women under 2 5

years of age in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Ideal Number of Children
10 

4.4

5.4

5.7

5.5

6.2

7.2

4.7

5.1

6.7

5.7

7.9

7.7

5.8

5.9

6.3

6.5

4.6

5.9

5.3

5.2

3.7

4.2

3.8

4.1

5.0

7.8

5.4

5.8

6.7

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.0

5.1

5.6

0 2 4 6 8

1998

Togo 1988

2005

1997

1992/93

Senegal 1986

2008

2003

1999

Nigeria 1990

2006

1998

Niger 1992

2006

2001

1995/96

Mali 1987

2007

Liberia 1986

2005

Guinea 1999

2008

2003

1998

1993

Ghana 1988

2004

Chad 1996/97

2004

1998

Cameroon 1991

2003

1998/99

Burkina Faso 1993

2006

2001

Benin 1996

Figure 3.1 (continued). Trends in the average ideal number of children for never-married women under 2 5

years of age in Western and Middle Africa.

8.4

8.3

Ideal Number of Children
11 

3.4

3.5

3.8

4.4

3.5

4.3

4.9

5.5

4.4

4.4

4.8

6.2

4.8

4.9

5.1

5.7

2.1

2.3

2.9

4.2

4.9

4.1

2.8

2.7

4.4

4.8

5.2

3.6

3.7

4.5

4.7

5.3

5.4

3.9

3.6

3.7

4.2

4.2

5.0

5.6

5.5

0 2 4 6 8

2005/06

1999

1994

Zimbabwe 1988

2007

2001/02

1996

Zambia 1992

2006

2000/01

1995

Uganda 1988/89

2003/04

1999

1996

Tanzania 1991/92

2003

South Africa* 1998

2007/08

2005

2000

Rwanda 1992

2006/07

2000

Namibia 1992

2003

Mozambique 1997

2004

2000

Malawi 1992

2003/04

1997

Madagascar 1992

2003

1998

1993

Kenya 1989

2005

Ethiopia 2000

2002

Eritrea 1995

Figure 3.1 (continued). Trends in the average ideal number of children for never-married women under 2 5

years of age in Southern and EasternAfrica.

* Estimates for zero parity women ages 15 – 24

Ideal Number of Children
12 

Shifting from the trend in the number desired to the trend in the proportion of women who want 

no more children (Figure 3.2), the concern about the interaction of the existing number of children and 

preferences is addressed by examining trends among women with 2 or 3 children or, in sub-Saharan 

Africa among those with 3 or 4 children. In most of the countries in Asia and North Africa, there is a 

clear trend toward wanting no more children. In India, for example, the proportion among women with 2 

children who want no more children has increased from 60 percent in 1992/93 to 83 percent by 2005/06. 

In Indonesia, this percentage has increased over 15 years from 43 to 58 percent. Other countries in these 

regions that show dramatic increases in this proportion are Cambodia, Morocco and Nepal. In Pakistan, 

an increase (among women with 3 children) is observed from 36 to 54 percent over some 16 years. In 

contrast, there is little change in Jordan over 17 years although the preceding description of trends of the 

desired number of children among younger women suggests that this may be changing. 
13 

25

18

92

87

80

79

81

56

53

49

27

17

83

72

59

44

36

29

26

65

66

22

14

23

24

58

51

51

51

43

83

72

60

59

61

59

60

59

52

47

28

74

67

66

64

58

79

78

42

26

94

94

90

88

90

78

75

75

54

36

91

86

76

64

58

52

40

76

77

39

29

42

38

79

70

71

73

67

90

84

77

88

87

82

81

80

76

70

44

89

85

83

81

80

91

93

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1997

Yemen 1991/92

2002

Vietnam 1997

2003

1998

Turkey 1993

2003

1998

Philippines 1993

2006/07

Pakistan 1991

2006

2001

Nepal 1996

2003/04

1995

1992

Morocco 1987

1999

Kazakhstan 1995

2007

2002

1997

Jordan 1990

2002/03

1997

1994

1991

Indonesia 1987

2005/06

1998/99

India 1992/93

2008

2005

2000

1995

1992

Egypt 1988

2005

Cambodia 2000

2007

2004

1999/00

1996/97

Bangladesh 1993/94

2005

Armenia 2000

Figure 3.2. Trends in the percentage of currently married women who want no more children1for women with two or

three children2in Asia and North Africa.

Two children

Three children
14 

65

67

68

73

68

64

62

53

53

46

52

54

44

35

61

61

49

57

58

56

79

76

71

62

69

89

84

69

67

66

69

68

83

83

84

85

77

81

80

72

77

66

68

73

65

52

91

89

86

86

87

82

92

90

88

86

85

98

94

86

83

83

83

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2004/08

2000

1996

1992

Peru 1986

2001

Nicaragua 1998

2005/06

2000

Haiti 1994/95

2002

1998/99

1995

Guatemala 1987

2007

2002

1999

1996

1991

Dominican Republic 1986

2005

2000

1995

1990

Colombia 1986

2006

1996

Brazil 1986

2003

1998

1994

Bolivia 1989

Figure 3.2 (continued). Trends i n the percentage of currently married women who want no more children1for

womenwith two or three children2in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Two children

Three children
15 

22

14

12

9

9

11

13

8

11

9

4

5

6

11

10

11

15

27

10

13

13

10

36

36

36

31

14

14

12

4

5

15

10

7

14

11

12

19

15

14

37

27

22

20

17

19

26

21

23

17

8

8

5

23

19

22

21

23

37

25

17

24

53

52

48

57

25

21

24

10

10

22

30

12

26

20

22

38

35

25

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1998

Togo 1988

2005

1997

1992/93

Senegal 1986

2008

2003

1999

Nigeria 1990

2006

1998

Niger 1992

2006

2001

1995/96

Mali 1987

2007

Liberia 1986

2005

1999

Guinea 1992

2008

2003

1998

1993

Ghana 1988

1998/99

Cote d'Ivoire 1994

2004

Chad 1996/97

2004

1998

Cameroon 1991

2003

1998/99

Burkina Faso 1993

2006

2001

Benin 1996

Figure 3.2 (continued). Trends in the percentage of currently married women who want no more children1for

womenwith three or four children2in Western and Middle Africa.

Three children

Four children
16 

53

45

31

20

24

28

23

10

24

29

25

9

25

23

22

12

75

74

57

35

24

25

68

65

35

20

15

38

43

18

46

36

40

50

52

47

33

31

26

10

9

72

64

51

32

41

42

31

24

44

44

37

18

42

47

34

25

81

82

72

57

45

45

73

71

39

31

20

58

59

34

58

48

52

67

72

65

49

50

39

22

18

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2005/06

1999

1994

Zimbabwe 1988

2007

2001/02

1996

Zambia 1992

2006

2000/01

1995

Uganda 1988/89

2003/04

1999

1996

Tanzania 1991/92

2003

South Africa 1998

2007/08

2005

2000

Rwanda 1992

2006/07

2000

Namibia 1992

2003

Mozambique 1997

2004

2000

Malawi 1992

2003/04

1997

Madagascar 1992

2003

1998

1993

Kenya 1989

2005

Ethiopia 2000

2002

Eritrea 1995

Figure 3.2 (continued). Trends in the percentage of currently married women who want n o more children1for

womenwith three or four children2in Southern and EasternAfrica.

1 Includes those sterilized

2 Includes current pregnancy

Three children

Four children
17 

Most of the Latin American countries included in this analysis had already reached high levels of 

the intention to avoid further childbearing. Guatemala and Haiti are exceptions but there is some 

evidence of an increase in this intention. 

The trends among women with 3 or 4 children in western and middle Africa are very mixed. A 

clear trend toward family limitation is evident in Ghana, in Cameroon, in Togo but not in Mali, Chad, and 

Niger. Slight evidence appears for Benin, Guinea and Nigeria. In southern and eastern Africa, increases 

in the proportion who want no more children are evident in most of the countries, especially in Rwanda 

and Zimbabwe1

. 

 

1

 Estimates from the Kenya 2008/09 Preliminary Report indicate that the trend toward wanting no more children 

interrupted in 2003 has resumed. For example, among women with 3 children, 58 percent now want no more 

children, up from 50 percent in 2003. 

19 

4 Planning of Recent Births and Wanted Fertility Rates 

Another measure of reproductive preferences is the prevalence of births reported as wanted and 

unwanted. Women who had a birth or several births in the five years prior to their interview were asked 

whether the pregnancy had been wanted at the time it occurred or whether it had been wanted but had 

occurred sooner than wanted, or whether the woman had wanted no further children at the time, a 

response that was classified as an unwanted birth. Of all the measures of reproductive preferences, this 

approach is probably the most vulnerable to measurement error and probably underestimates the 

prevalence of unwanted fertility (see Appendix A for discussion). 

The distributions of responses to this question are shown in the first section of Table 4.1. The 

other section of Table 4.1 shows Wanted and Total Fertility Rates which are focused on similar issues but 

which are constructed differently and discussed separately below. 

Table 4.1. Planning status of births in the five years preceding the survey.

Planning Status of Births1 Wanted 

Total 

Fertility 

Rate

Total 

Fertility 

Rate

Percent 

of TFR 

Country Unwanted

Survey 

Year

Wanted 

then (%)

Wanted 

later (%)

Unwanted

(%)

ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA

Armenia 2005 82 10 7 1.6 1.7 6

Azerbaijan 2006 83 9 8 1.8 2.0 10

Bangladesh 2007 71 15 14 1.9 2.7 30

Cambodia 2005 72 9 19 2.8 3.4 18

Egypt 2008 86 5 9 2.4 3.0 20

India 2005/06 79 10 11 1.9 2.7 30

Indonesia 2007 80 12 7 2.2 2.6 15

Jordan 2007 74 15 11 2.8 3.6 22

Kazakhstan 1999 82 8 9 1.9 2.0 5

Moldova 2005 79 12 9 NA 1.7 NA

Morocco 2003/04 70 15 15 1.8 2.5 28

Nepal 2006 69 14 16 2.0 3.1 35

Pakistan 2006/07 75 13 11 3.1 4.1 24

Philippines 2003 55 24 20 2.5 3.5 29

Turkey 2003 66 14 20 1.6 2.2 27

Turkmenistan 2000 94 2 1 2.7 2.9 7

Ukraine 2007 85 8 6 1.1 1.2 8

Vietnam 2002 76 14 9 1.6 1.9 16

LATIN AMERICA AND THE 

CARIBBEAN

Bolivia 2003 38 22 39 2.1 3.8 45

Brazil 2006 52 30 18 1.6 1.8 11

Colombia 2005 46 27 27 1.7 2.4 29

Dominican Republic 2007 55 30 14 1.9 2.4 21

Guatemala 2002 68 16 15 3.7 4.4 16

Haiti 2005/06 52 21 26 2.4 3.9 38

Honduras 2005/06 50 25 24 2.3 3.3 30

Nicaragua 2001 51 21 27 2.3 3.2 25

Peru 2004/08 43 30 27 1.7 2.6 35

(Cont’d)
20 

Table 4.1. – cont’d

Planning Status of Births1 Wanted 

Total 

Fertility 

Rate

Total 

Fertility 

Rate

Percent 

of TFR 

Country Unwanted

Survey 

Year

Wanted 

then (%)

Wanted 

later (%)

Unwanted

(%)

WESTERN AND MIDDLE 

AFRICA

Benin 2006 82 14 4 4.8 5.7 16

Burkina Faso 2003 77 20 3 5.1 5.9 14

Cameroon 2004 77 17 5 4.5 5.0 10

Cape Verde 2005 43 34 22 2.8 2.9 4

Chad 2004 83 16 1 6.1 6.3 3

Congo (Brazzaville) 2005 66 29 4 4.4 4.8 8

Congo Democratic Rep. 2007 70 21 9 5.6 6.3 11

Côte d'Ivoire 1998/99 71 24 5 4.5 5.2 13

Gabon 2000 55 38 7 3.5 4.2 17

Ghana 2008 62 23 14 3.5 4.0 12

Guinea 2005 86 10 4 5.1 5.7 10

Liberia 2007 69 25 4 4.6 5.2 11

Mali 2006 83 13 3 6.0 6.6 9

Mauritania 2000/01 71 22 6 4.1 4.5 9

Niger 2006 89 9 <1 6.8 7.0 3

Nigeria 2008 87 7 4 5.3 5.7 7

Senegal 2005 71 24 4 4.5 5.3 15

Sierra Leone 2008 72 16 10 4.5 5.1 12

EASTERN AND 

SOUTHERN AFRICA

Eritrea 2002 74 19 6 4.4 4.8 8

Ethiopia 2005 65 19 16 4.0 5.4 26

Kenya 2003 55 25 20 3.6 4.9 26

Lesotho 2004 50 12 38 2.5 3.5 29

Madagascar 2003/04 83 10 6 4.6 5.2 11

Malawi 2004 60 20 20 4.9 6.0 18

Mozambique 2003 80 16 4 4.9 5.5 11

Namibia 2006/07 46 26 27 2.7 3.6 25

Rwanda 2007/08 52 13 22 3.7 5.5 33

South Africa 2003 50 24 23 1.6 2.1 24

Swaziland 2006/07 36 27 37 2.1 3.9 46

Tanzania 2004/05 76 18 5 4.9 5.7 14

Uganda 2006 54 33 13 5.1 6.7 24

Zambia 2007 58 26 16 5.2 6.2 16

Zimbabwe 2005/06 67 20 13 3.3 3.8 13

1

The sum of these categories may be slightly less than 100 percent because of rounding and no response.

NA - not available
21 

The highest proportion of births reported as unwanted in the 18 countries in the Asian – North 

Africa grouping are in Cambodia, Philippines and Turkey with 20 percent in the unwanted category. At 

the opposite extreme, the lowest proportion of unwanted births is in Ukraine and in Turkmenistan, though 

the 1 percent estimate for Turkmenistan seems improbable. 

On the whole, the prevalence of unwanted births in Latin America and the Caribbean – an 

average of 24 percent - is appreciably higher than in Asia and North Africa and in most of the subSaharan African countries as well. The highest – 39 percent – is for Bolivia and the lowest – 14 percent –

is for the Dominican Republic. 

The level of unwanted births is lowest in the countries of west and middle Africa, with an average 

of 6 percent in the 18 countries. The main exception, other than Cape Verde, is Ghana where unwanted 

births reach 14 percent. The proportion of births unwanted in Ghana is high compared with most other 

countries in the region. 

There is much more variability in the levels of unwanted births in eastern and southern Africa. 

The highest are in Swaziland and Lesotho with 37 and 38 percent respectively. Both of these countries 

have very high rates of HIV/AIDS, with 31 and 27 percent of women infected. These two countries have 

the lowest wanted fertility rates in the region along with Namibia and South Africa. 

The other section of Table 4.1 shows the Wanted Total Fertility Rates and the actual Total 

Fertility Rates for each country. The WTFR is calculated exactly in the same way as the TFR except that 

it excludes in the numerator those births that exceed the number wanted, as measured by the question on 

desired or ideal number of children shown in Table 2.1 and discussed earlier. This measure also has its 

limitations (see Appendix A) but is a convenient summary and offers a demographic insight into what the 

TFR might be without undesired births. Though not derived from the question on the planning status of 

recent births, it complements this measure and provides some further explanation of variations in 

unwanted births. 

The Wanted Total Fertility Rates are lowest in the Asia – North Africa region with more than half 

of the surveyed countries showing rates below that needed for population replacement. The lowest 

WTFR is 1.1 for Ukraine, very close to the level of the actual TFR, while Pakistan shows the highest at 

3.1 a level significantly below the Pakistan TFR of 4.1. The WTFRs in Latin America and the Caribbean, 

with the exception of Guatemala, cluster around the replacement level but are typically considerably 

below the TFRs. The extreme example is Haiti where the TFR is 3.9 but the WTFR is 2.4, a large 

difference consistent with the relatively high proportion of unwanted births in that country. 

Chad and Niger show two of the highest TFRs in western and middle Africa at 6.3 and 7.0 

respectively. What distinguishes these two countries from others in the region is less their high TFRs 

than the very small difference between the TFR and the WTFR. Unlike most countries, there is hardly 

any indication of unwanted fertility in Chad or Niger. In southern and eastern Africa, the most developed 

country, South Africa, has the lowest WTFR, 1.6, along with the lowest TFR, 2.1. 

The last column in Table 4.1 shows the proportion of unwanted births in the TFR (the difference 

between the TFR and the WTFR divided by the TFR). Although this proportion is derived from the 

question on the number of children desired while the proportion of births never wanted is based on the 

question about the planning status of births in the past five years, both indices are measures of unwanted 

fertility and tell a similar story. Indeed, the correlation between the two measures for the 62 countries is 

.82. The measure in the last column is more relevant to the population growth issue. 
22 

In Asia and North Africa, the highest unwanted fertility component appears in Bangladesh, India, 

Nepal and the Philippines. The lowest are for countries in Central Asia. In Latin America, Bolivia 

records the highest unwanted fertility with nearly half of its TFR in this category. 

The proportion of the TFR in unwanted births is significantly lower in western and middle Africa 

where the WTFR is so much higher and contraceptive prevalence much lower. In eastern and southern 

Africa, the proportion is twice as high – 21 percent on average compared with 10 percent in western and 

middle Africa. 

The lower proportion of the TFR unwanted in sub-Saharan Africa especially in western and 

middle Africa, compared with other regions is not the result of more effective contraceptive use but rather 

the much higher level of wanted fertility. 
23 

5 Trends in Wanted, Unwanted and Total Fertility Rates 

Figure 5.1 shows trends in the WTFR and the TFR for all of the countries with recent repeat 

surveys. A later analysis focuses on the relative changes in the wanted and unwanted components of 

these rates. 

With the exception of Armenia which has already reached a low WTFR of 1.6, the trend in the 

surveyed countries in Asia and North Africa is down, some quite dramatically. In Egypt, for example, the 

WTFR has dropped from 2.9 to 2.4 in the eight years between 2000 and 2008. At the end of the 1980s, it 

had been 3.6. In India, the WTFR has dropped from 2.6 in 1992/93 to 1.9 in 2005/06. While Pakistan 

shows the highest WTFR in the group at 3.1 in 2006/07, it is down from 4.3 in 1990/91. Morocco also 

shows a large decline in the WTFR. 

The picture is similar in the Latin American – Caribbean region. These rates appear to be 

declining to very low levels in Brazil based on estimates from a 2006 survey where the WTFR is 1.6 and 

the TFR is 1.8. 

In western and middle Africa, there is a more mixed pattern of change. While there are a few 

countries that show declines in wanted fertility such as Ghana, Senegal, Togo and Liberia, the dominant 

pattern is little or no change. In southern and eastern Africa, about half of the countries show clear 

declines in wanted fertility. 

This discussion has concentrated on trends in wanted fertility. The other component of the TFR 

is unwanted fertility. The relative contributions of wanted and unwanted fertility to the declines in the 

TFR are presented for each country in Table 5.1. For example, in Egypt over a 20 year span, the TFR 

declined by 1.7 births per woman from 1988/89 to 2008. Most of this decline – 1.2 – was in wanted 

fertility while the remaining 0.5 decline was in unwanted fertility. In Jordan, however, the decline in the 

TFR of 2.0 over 17 years was almost equally divided between the two components. In most of the 

countries in the different regions, the TFR declined primarily because of the decrease in wanted fertility. 

An extreme example is in Pakistan where the 0.8 decline in the TFR included an increase of 0.4 in 

unwanted fertility. A similar pattern can be seen for Ethiopia where the TFR hardly changed between 

2000 and 2005 as a result of a decline in wanted fertility of 0.7 offset by an increase in unwanted fertility 

of 0.6. Uganda also shows a similar increase in unwanted fertility. This suggests a lag between effective 

contraceptive practice and the changing fertility preference. 

Countries that show relatively large declines in unwanted fertility besides Jordan are Morocco, 

Nepal, Bolivia, Brazil, Dominican Republic, Peru, Ghana and Kenya. Again, it is important to remember 

that the time intervals between surveys (shown in Table 5.1) range from 5 to 21 years. 

 
24 

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.8

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

4.3

2.0

2.5

2.9

1.8

2.2

2.7

3.3

2.8

2.9

3.9

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.9

2.6

2.7

3.6

2.8

3.0

1.9

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

1.6

1.5

1.9

2.3

2.2

2.6

2.7

3.5

3.7

4.1

4.1

4.9

3.1

4.1

4.6

2.5

3.3

4.0

4.6

3.6

4.4

5.6

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

2.7

2.9

3.4

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.7

3.4

3.8

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.3

3.4

1.7

1.7

0 2 4 6 8

2002

Vietnam 1997

2003

1998

Turkey 1993

2003

1998

Philippines 1993

2006/07

Pakistan 1991

2006

2001

Nepal 1996

2003/04

1995

1992

Morocco 1987

2007

1997

Jordan 1990

2007

2002/03

1997

1994

1991

Indonesia 1987

2005/06

1998/99

India 1992/93

2008

2005

2000

1995

1992

Egypt 1988

2005

Cambodia 2000

2007

2004

1999/00

1996/97

Bangladesh 1993/94

2005

Armenia 2000

Figure 5.1. Trends in wanted, unwanted and total fertility rates for Asia and North Africa.

Wanted Unwanted Total
25 

1.7

1.8

2.2

2.0

2.3

2.4

2.7

3.0

3.7

4.1

4.0

4.4

1.9

2.0

2.5

2.6

2.6

1.7

1.8

2.2

2.1

2.1

1.6

1.8

2.3

2.1

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.8

3.5

3.5

4.1

3.9

4.7

4.8

4.4

5.0

5.1

5.5

2.4

2.6

3.2

3.3

3.7

2.4

2.6

3.0

2.8

3.2

1.8

2.5

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.8

5.0

0 2 4 6 8

2004/08

2000

1996

1992

Peru 1986

2005/06

2000

Haiti 1994/95

2002

1998/99

1995

Guatemala 1987

2007

1999

1996

1991

Dominican Republic 1986

2005

2000

1995

1990

Colombia 1986

2006

1996

Brazil 1986

2003

1998

1994

Bolivia 1989

Figure 5.1 (continued). Trends in wanted, unwanted and total fertility rates for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Wanted Unwanted Total
26 

4.2

5.0

4.5

4.6

5.1

5.5

5.3

5.3

4.8

5.8

6.8

7.2

7.1

6.0

6.1

6.0

6.6

4.6

6.1

5.1

5.0

5.1

3.5

3.7

3.6

4.2

5.3

6.1

6.1

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.3

5.2

5.1

5.7

5.8

4.8

4.6

5.0

5.2

6.4

5.3

5.7

6.0

6.4

5.7

5.2

6.0

5.7

7.5

7.4

7.0

6.8

6.7

7.1

6.6

6.7

5.2

5.5

5.7

5.7

4.4

5.2

6.4

4.0

4.4

6.3

6.4

5.2

5.3

5.0

5.8

4.8

6.4

6.5

5.9

5.7

6.0

5.6

0 2 4 6 8

1998

Togo 1988

2005

1997

1992/93

Senegal 1986

2008

2003

1999

Nigeria 1990

2006

1998

Niger 1992

2006

2001

1995/96

Mali 1987

2007

Liberia 1986

2005

1999

Guinea 1992

2008

2003

1998

1993

Ghana 1988

2004

Chad 1996/97

1998/99

Cote d'Ivoire 1994

2004

1998

Cameroon 1991

2003

1998/99

Burkina Faso 1993

2006

2001

Benin 1996

Figure 5.1 (continued). Trends in wanted, unwanted and total fertility rates for Western and Middle Africa.

Wanted Unwanted Total
27 

3.3

3.4

3.5

4.4

5.2

4.9

5.2

5.4

5.1

5.3

5.6

6.4

4.9

4.8

5.1

5.6

1.6

2.3

3.7

4.6

4.7

4.2

2.7

3.4

4.8

4.9

4.7

4.9

5.2

5.7

4.6

5.2

5.2

3.6

3.5

3.4

4.5

4.0

4.7

4.4

5.7

3.8

4.0

4.3

5.4

6.2

5.9

6.1

6.5

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.4

5.7

5.6

5.8

6.2

2.1

2.9

5.5

6.1

5.8

6.2

3.6

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.2

6.0

6.3

6.7

5.2

6.0

6.1

4.9

4.7

5.4

6.7

5.4

5.5

4.8

6.1

0 2 4 6 8

2005/06

1999

1994

Zimbabwe 1988

2007

2001/02

1996

Zambia 1992

2006

2000/01

1995

Uganda 1988/89

2003/04

1999

1996

Tanzania 1991/92

2003

South Africa 1998

2007/08

2005

2000

Rwanda 1992

2006/07

2000

Namibia 1992

2003

Mozambique 1997

2004

2000

Malawi 1992

2003/04

1997

Madagascar 1992

2003

1998

1993

Kenya 1989

2005

Ethiopia 2000

2002

Eritrea 1995

Figure 5.1 (continued). Trends in wanted, unwanted and total fertility rates for Southern and Eastern Africa.

Wanted Unwanted Total
28 

Table 5.1. Decline in the total fertility rate and in its wanted and unwanted components.

Decline

Years Between 

Country Total Fertility Surveys

Wanted 

Fertility

Unwanted 

Fertility

ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA

Armenia 0.0 +0.1 0.0 5

Bangladesh 0.7 0.3 0.4 14

Cambodia 0.4 0.2 0.2 5

Egypt 1.7 1.2 0.5 20

India 0.7 0.7 0.0 14

Indonesia 0.5 0.3 0.2 20

Jordan 2.0 1.1 0.9 17

Morocco 2.1 1.5 0.6 17

Nepal 1.5 0.9 0.6 10

Pakistan 0.8 1.2 +0.4 17

Philippines 0.6 0.4 0.2 10

Turkey 0.5 0.2 0.3 10

Vietnam 0.4 0.3 0.1 5

LATIN AMERICA AND 

CARIBBEAN

Bolivia 1.2 0.6 0.6 14

Brazil 1.6 0.7 0.9 20

Colombia 0.8 0.5 0.4 19

Dominican Republic 1.3 0.7 0.6 21

Guatemala 1.1 0.7 0.4 15

Haiti 0.9 0.6 0.3 12

Peru 1.5 0.6 0.9 19

WESTERN AND MIDDLE AFRICA

Benin 0.3 0.2 0.1 10

Burkina Faso 0.6 0.7 +0.1 10

Cameroon 0.8 0.7 0.1 13

Chad 0.1 0.0 0.1 8

Côte d'Ivoire 0.1 +0.1 0.2 5

Ghana 2.4 1.8 0.6 20

Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0 13

Liberia 1.5 1.5 0.0 21

Mali 0.5 0.6 +0.1 19

Niger 0.4 0.3 0.1 14

Nigeria 0.3 0.5 +0.2 18

Senegal 1.1 1.0 0.1 19

Togo 1.2 0.8 0.4 10

(Cont’d)
29 

Table 5.1. – cont’d

Decline

Years Between 

Country Total Fertility Surveys

Wanted 

Fertility

Unwanted 

Fertility

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 

AFRICA

Eritrea 1.3 1.3 0.0 7

Ethiopia 0.1 0.7 +0.6 5

Kenya 2.0 1.1 0.9 15

Madagascar 0.9 0.6 0.3 12

Malawi 0.7 0.8 +0.1 12

Mozambique +0.3 +0.2 +0.1 6

Namibia 1.8 2.1 +0.3 15

Rwanda 0.7 0.5 0.2 16

South Africa 0.8 0.7 0.1 5

Tanzania 0.5 0.7 +0.2 13

Uganda 0.7 1.3 +0.6 18

Zambia 0.3 0.2 0.1 15

Zimbabwe 1.6 1.1 0.5 18

31 

6 Men’s Reproductive Preferences

A description of the desired number of children and the intention to limit childbearing among 

men is possible for a large number of countries in which the DHS has included samples of men, mostly in 

sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, many of the countries have by now repeated such surveys thereby 

enabling the analysis of trends in male preferences. 

Table 6.1 presents the same data for men as for women in Table 2.1, with the focus on subSaharan Africa. The average number of children considered ideal by married men in this region shows a 

pattern similar to that for women. The highest numbers are for Chad (13.7) and Niger (12.6) with the 

lowest average in Swaziland (3.6). The average for the countries in west and middle Africa is 7.8 in 

contrast to 4.9 in southern and eastern Africa. Every one of the 17 countries in west and middle Africa, 

except Cape Verde, has a higher desired number than the average for the 10 countries in southern and 

eastern Africa. 

The same pattern appears for the proportion of married men who want no more children. On 

average only 15 percent say they want no more in western and middle Africa compared with 38 percent in 

southern and eastern Africa. 

In the few countries outside of Africa that have recent data on men’s preferences there is a narrow 

range in the ideal number of children mostly between 2 and 3. The proportion of men who want no more 

children averages 60 percent. 

Table 6.1. Ideal number of children and percentage who want no more children* for currently married men 

in sub-Saharan Africa and several countries in other regions.

Country

Survey 

Year

Mean Ideal Number of 

Children

Percentage Who Want No More 

Children

All Married 

Men

Married 

Men with 2 

Children

All Married 

Men

Number of Children

2 3 4

WESTERN AND 

MIDDLE AFRICA

Benin 2006 6.9 5.5 24 6 15 27

Burkina Faso 2003 7.0 5.8 14 7 12 16

Cape Verde 2005 2.9 2.7 63 78 51 87

Chad 2004 13.7 10.7 6 1 7 5

Congo (Brazzaville ) 2005 5.9 5.3 NA NA NA NA

Congo Democratic Rep. 2007 8.2 6.9 18 6 13 18

Cote d'Ivoire 1998/99 7.5 5.7 20 10 23 13

Gabon 2000 6.8 6.1 24 16 17 30

Ghana 2008 5.1 4.2 31 22 34 50

Guinea 2005 8.8 7.4 7 1 4 5

Liberia 2007 6.3 5.3 20 11 17 21

Mali 2006 8.4 7.2 9 2 4 8

Mauritania 2000/01 8.7 8.0 8 5 6 9

Niger 2006 12.6 11.0 4 1 2 3

Nigeria 2008 8.5 7.1 12 5 10 21

Togo 1998 6.0 4.9 26 14 15 27

Sierra Leone 2008 6.4 5.4 18 6 17 20

(Cont’d)
32 

Table 6.1. – cont’d

Country

Survey 

Year

Mean Ideal Number of 

Children

Percentage Who Want No More 

Children

All Married 

Men

Married 

Men with 2 

Children

All Married 

Men

Number of Children

2 3 4

SOUTHERN AND 

EASTERN AFRICA

Ethiopia 2005 6.4 5.2 34 16 28 35

Kenya 2003 4.8 3.9 39 25 39 57

Lesotho 2004 4.1 3.4 46 42 55 67

Madagascar 2003/04 5.7 4.8 35 24 36 45

Malawi 2004 4.3 4.1 38 22 32 52

Namibia 2006/07 4.7 3.4 47 49 53 53

Rwanda 2005 4.2 3.8 44 19 29 51

Swaziland 2006/07 3.6 3.2 52 43 59 62

Tanzania 2004/05 5.9 4.7 19 6 14 27

Zambia 2007 5.7 4.5 33 17 22 36

OTHER REGIONS

Armenia 2005 3.1 3.0 62 71 87 95

Azerbaijan 2006 3.0 2.7 68 76 85 90

Moldova 2005 2.6 2.5 64 75 84 88

Turkey 1998 2.7 2.4 66 79 86 90

Ukraine 2007 2.1 2.2 49 75 80 74

Indonesia 2007 3.0 2.7 43 50 64 69

Nepal 2006 2.6 2.2 72 77 92 91

Philippines 2003 3.8 3.2 51 45 60 70

Bolivia 2003 3.2 2.6 67 63 75 84

Brazil 1996 2.9 2.5 71 78 87 91

Haiti** 2005/06 3.3 3.1 49 39 56 61

* Includes men reporting sterilization

** Estimates of the percent who want no more in Haiti based on the 2000 survey

Although the number of children desired by men is declining in some of the sub-Saharan African 

countries included in Figure 6.1, there are numerous exceptions. In Kenya, the average increased from 

4.3 in 1998 to 4.8 in 2003, returning to the level for 1989. This is consistent with the observed stall in 

related contraceptive and fertility in that country by 2003. Also, in Ghana the mean number that men 

desire increased from 4.3 in 1998 to 5.1 in 2008 following a decline from 7.6 in 1988. Nonetheless, there 

have been continuous declines in Benin, Malawi, Senegal, Tanzania and Zambia, and small declines in 

other countries. 
33 

4.5

4.5

4.9

5.7

5.9

6.6

6.2

6.3

5.9

6.3

7.4

8.3

9.4

10.3

4.2

4.3

8.5

10.6

9.3

12.6

12.3

12.7

4.7

4.9

8.4

8.5

9.2

4.3

4.5

5.4

4.8

4.3

4.1

4.8

8.8

8.5

5.1

5.4

4.3

5.3

7.6

6.4

7.7

7.5

6.9

13.7

15.1

8.7

11.2

7.0

7.9

7.8

6.9

7.5

8.5

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

2005/06

1999

Zimbabwe 1994

2007

2001/02

Zambia 1996

2000/01

Uganda 1995

2003/04

1999

Tanzania 1991/92

2005

1997

Senegal 1992/93

2005

Rwanda 1992

2008

2003

Nigeria 1999

2006

1998

Niger 1992

2006/07

Namibia 2000

2006

2001

Mali 1995/96

2004

2000

Malawi 1992

2003

1998

1993

Kenya 1989

2005

Guinea 1999

2008

2003

1998

1993

Ghana 1988

2005

Ethiopia 2000

1998/99

Cote d'Ivoire 1994

2004

Chad 1996/97

1998

Cameroon 1991

2003

1998/99

Burkina Faso 1993

2006

2001

Benin 1996

Figure 6.1. Trends in mean ideal number of children for currently married men in sub-Saharan Africa.

Ideal Number of Children
34 

A similar mixed picture appears with the trend in the proportion of married men who want no 

more children (Figure 6.2). There are clear signs of an increase in this proportion in Benin, Malawi, 

Uganda, and Zambia. The reversal in Kenya is consistent with the trend in the ideal number of children. 

37

34

35

33

31

21

32

27

23

19

21

16

8

9

7

4

4

47

43

9

8

7

38

37

26

39

45

44

7

8

34

32

32

25

34

6

3

14

10

12

24

20

19

0 10 20 30 40 50

2005/06

1999

Zimbabwe 1994

2007

2001/02

Zambia 1996

2006

2000/01

Uganda 1995

2003/04

1996

Tanzania 1991/92

2005

1997

Senegal 1992/93

2006

Niger 1998

2006/07

Namibia 2000

2006

2001

Mali 1995/96

2004

2000

Malawi 1992

2003

1998

Kenya 1993

2005

Guinea 1999

2003

1998

Ghana 1993

2005

Ethiopia 2000

2004

Chad 1996/97

2003

1998/99

Burkina Faso 1993

2006

2001

Benin 1996

Figure 6.2. Trends in the proportion of married men in sub-Saharan African countries who want no more children.
35 

As discussed in the 2002 DHS Comparative Report (Westoff and Bankole, 2002) men report a 

higher number of children desired than women, with the sole exception of Rwanda (Table 6.2). This 

difference continues in the latest surveys. There may be a trend emerging toward a reduction in the 

magnitude of the difference but there are numerous exceptions. 

Table 6.2. Recent trends in differences in male-female average number of children desired in sub-Saharan 

African countries.

Western and Middle Africa Southern and Eastern Africa

Country

Survey 

Year Male Female M-F Country

Survey 

Year Male Female M-F

Benin 1996 8.5 5.8 2.7 Ethiopia 2000 7.7 5.8 1.9

2006 6.9 5.2 1.7 2005 6.4 5.1 1.3

Burkina Faso 1998/99 7.9 5.9 2.0 Kenya 1998 4.3 4.1 0.2

2003 7.0 5.8 1.2 2003 4.8 4.3 0.5

Chad 1996/97 15.1 8.5 6.6 Malawi 1992 5.4 5.3 0.1

2004 13.7 8.1 5.6 2004 4.3 4.3 0.0

Côte d'Ivoire 1994 6.9 6.0 0.9 Rwanda 1992 5.0 4.3 0.7

1998/99 7.5 5.9 1.6 2005 4.2 4.5 -0.3

Ghana 2005 5.4 4.8 0.6 Senegal 1997 9.4 5.7 3.7

2008 5.1 4.6 0.5 2005 8.3 5.7 2.6

Guinea 1999 8.5 5.9 2.6 Tanzania 1999 6.3 5.7 0.6

2005 8.8 5.9 2.9 2004/05 5.9 5.4 0.5

Mali 1995/96 9.2 6.5 2.7 Uganda 2000/01 6.2 5.1 1.1

2006 8.4 6.4 2.0 2006 6.4 5.3 1.1

Niger 1998 12.3 8.5 3.8 Zambia 2001/02 5.9 5.1 0.8

2006 12.6 9.1 3.5 2007 5.7 5.1 0.6

Nigeria 2003 10.6 7.3 3.3 Zimbabwe 1999 4.5 4.3 0.2

2003 8.5 6.7 1.8 2005/06 4.5 3.8 0.7

37 

7 The Influence of Education and Development 

The education of women is clearly and close to universally associated with their reproductive 

preferences. The proportion of women who want no more children increases with the level of education. 

A related question is whether the increase over time in this proportion is connected with education. The 

situation in sub-Saharan Africa is particularly interesting because there are still many countries in the 

region in which significant proportions with no formal schooling can still be observed, ranging from close 

to zero to as high as 85 percent. It is therefore possible to determine whether the trend toward higher 

proportions of women that want no more children is influenced by education. Is this general trend 

confined to women with some education or can it also be seen among those with no education? 

We have examined time trends in the proportion of women with no education who want to cease 

childbearing in 25 sub-Saharan African countries and observe that the increase in the proportion who 

want no more children can also be detected among women with no education in about one-third of the 25 

countries (see Figure 6.1). This trend is especially evident in eastern and southern Africa. Among women 

with some primary or with secondary or higher education, the trend is evident in about half of the 25 

countries (not shown here). 

In countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, there are 12 surveyed countries with a sufficient 

number of women with no education to pursue the same question. There is clear evidence that the 

proportion of women with no education who want no more children has risen appreciably in virtually all 

of these countries (Figure 6.1). For example, in Nepal the proportion who want no more children among 

uneducated women has risen from 60 percent in 1996 to 76 percent in 2006; in Cambodia from 36 percent 

in 2000 to 61 percent five years later; in India from 54 percent in1992/93 to 73 percent in 2005/06. 

Similar trends among women with no education are observed for Morocco, Bangladesh, Indonesia, 

Pakistan, Guatemala and Haiti. These increases reduce the educational differential in the desire to cease 

childbearing. In these countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, at the primary or secondary and higher 

education levels, the proportion of women who want no more children shows little change (not shown). 

It is relevant to note that as the proportion with no education decreases over time, as it has in 

recent years, those remaining in this category may be more selective on other characteristics associated 

with reproductive preferences. These could include rural residence and low economic status, a selectivity 

that would ostensibly obscure the trend toward a desire to cease childbearing. 

The increase in the proportions of uneducated women wanting no more children that is 

particularly strong in the countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa probably involves a demonstration 

effect. Uneducated women are living in communities where most women have some education. These 

more educated women are having fewer children and small family norms may be evident in the mass 

media and elsewhere. Family planning programs also may play an important role in this population. 

Moreover, although education is a strong determinant of reproductive preferences, there are other 

influences operating, such as urban residence, religion, declining child mortality, changes in the status of 

women and improvements in income and wealth. 

An earlier analysis (Rutstein, 1998) also documented declines in the number of children desired 

among women with no education. He concluded that: “Even women with no education have changed 

their desired number of children over time – contrary to the belief of some scholars that rises in education 

are essential for declines in fertility.” (p. 14) 
32 43

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2005

Ethiopia

Figure 7.1 Trends in the percentage who want no more children among married women with no education for selected countries.

17 37

0

20

40

60

80

1986 2007

Liberia

26 46 50

0

20

40

60

80

1992 2000 2004

Malawi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

21 32 41 47

0

20

40

60

80

1988/89 1995 2000/01 2006

Uganda

29 29 31 38

0

20

40

60

80

1992 1996 2001/02 2007

Zambia

33 46 53 55

0

20

40

60

80

1988 1994 1999 2005/06

Zimbabwe

32 56 57

0

20

40

60

80

1992 2000 2006/07

Namibia

43 43 49 57

0

20

40

60

80

1992 2000 2005 2007/08

Rwanda

38
61 68 73

0

20

40

60

80

1993/94 1999/00 2004

Bangladesh

36 61

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2005

Cambodia

40 51 61

0

20

40

60

80

1987 1995 1998/99

Guatemala

OTHER COUNTRIES

58 64 69

0

20

40

60

80

1994/95 2000 2005/06

Haiti

54 62 73

0

20

40

60

80

1992/93 1998/99 2005/06

India

56 64 61 74 72

0

20

40

60

80

1987 1991 1997 2002/03 2007

Indonesia

Figure 7.1 (continued). Trends in the percentage who want no more children among married women with no education for

selectedcountries. 39
47 53 57

0

20

40

60

80

1987 1992 2003/04

Morocco

Figure 7.1 (continued). Trends in the percentage who want no more children among married women with no education for

selectedcountries.

60 68 76

0

20

40

60

80

1996 2001 2006

Nepal

38 54

0

20

40

60

80

1991 2006/07

Pakistan

OTHER COUNTRIES, continued...

47 43 57

0

20

40

60

80

1993 1998 2003

Philippines

67 78

0

20

40

60

80

1997 2002

Vietnam

36 52

0

20

40

60

80

1991/92 1997

40

Yemen
41 

There is a clear and strong association of wanted fertility with general socio-economic 

development. This is shown for developing countries in Table 7.1 with the use of the Human 

Development Index (HDI), a composite of various international agency indicators (UNDP, 2008). The 

HDI consists of measures of life expectancy at birth, literacy and school enrollment, and gross domestic 

product. The association of this Index with the WTFR and with the proportion of women who want no 

more children is strong and negative. The WTFR ranges from 2.6 at the highest end of the HDI to 5.9 at 

the lowest extreme. Similarly, the proportion of women who want no more children ranges (among 

women with 3 children) from an average of 17 to 75 percent. 

Table 7.1. Wanted fertility and socio-economic development in developing countries.

Human Development 

Index

Wanted Total Fertility 

Rate

Percentage Want No 

More Children* Number of Countries

Least developed 5.9 17 11

Next to least 4.9 38 15

Middle 4.4 50 10

Next to most 3.2 75 12

Most developed 2.6 75 13

* Among women with three children

43 

8 Reproductive Preferences and Unmet Need 

In general, both the number of children desired and unwanted fertility are associated with unmet 

need for family planning. This is not surprising since preferences are part of the index of unmet need 

which essentially estimates the proportion of women who are not using contraception but who want no 

more children or want to delay the next child. 

Low levels of unmet need are typically associated with populations in which women are mostly 

using contraception and have largely achieved low fertility. However, there is an important exception to 

this connection in that there are some countries with little unmet need (especially for limiting births) 

where contraceptive prevalence is also very low, for example in Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Guinea, and 

Mozambique where the WTFR ranges from 5.1 to 6.8. The simple explanation for the combination of 

low contraceptive prevalence and low unmet need is that women in these countries want as well as have 

high fertility. Most of the existing unmet need in these countries is for the spacing, not limiting of births, 

a pattern observed throughout most of sub-Saharan Africa. 

Curiously, policy reflections on countries with low contraceptive prevalence and high fertility 

focus mainly on access to family planning services and ignore the large family size preferences (UN 

Population Division Policy Brief, 2009). Altering these preferences is more complex than providing 

family planning and it is far from clear that the existence of services alone will lower fertility desires. 

In order to gain more insight into the forces supporting high fertility preferences, we turn to a 

more detailed analysis of these five countries. Table 8.1 summarizes some of their relevant 

characteristics. As mentioned, both unmet need and contraceptive prevalence are low and the desired 

number of children is high. Only small proportions of last births were regarded as never wanted although 

there is some level of mistimed births. Of particular interest are the high proportions of women who both 

have never used any method of contraception and do not intend to use any in the future. The TFR ranges 

in these five countries from 5.5 to 7.0. Most of these births are wanted as indicated by the small 

differences between the TFR and the WTFR. Child mortality rates are high. Most of the women live in 

rural areas and very high proportions have had no education at all. Most women are Muslim except in 

Mozambique. 
44 

Table 8.1. Characteristics of five African countries with low unmet need and high reproductive preferences.

Chad Guinea Mozambique Niger Nigeria

Characteristic 2004 2005 2003 2006 2008

Unmet need, total 23 21 18 16 20

Unmet need for spacing 19 13 11 13 15

Unmet need for limiting 4 8 7 3 5

Contraceptive prevalence 3 9 16 11 15

Percent using modern methods 2 6 12 5 10

Percent never used any method and do not 

intend to use 75 55 29 60 47

Number of children desired 9.2 5.9 5.7 9.1 6.7

Last birth mistimed 17 10 15 9 6

Last birth unwanted 1 4 4 1 5

Wanted total fertility rate 6.1 5.1 4.9 6.8 5.3

Total fertility rate 6.3 5.7 5.5 7.0 5.7

Percent with child that died* 40 39 36 45 40

Percent with no education 75 77 41 83 36

Percent urban 21 31 37 20 36

Percent Muslim 57 85 22 99 44

Note: Unmet need, contraceptive use, and number of children desired are based on currently married women

* Based on women with at least one live birth

 
45 

These are the background characteristics against which we now turn to multivariate analyses of 

factors associated with the desired number of children in these five countries (Table 8.2). Standardized 

partial regression coefficients are shown with controls for the number of living children and current age. 

The remaining covariates are more substantive, some of which are sensitive to programs and policies. 

The results for each of these covariates follow. They are based on currently married women but the 

picture is the same for all women. 

Women who have experienced the death of one or more children (40-50% of women in these 

countries who have had at least one live birth) are more likely to desire greater numbers of children. The 

significant effect of child mortality on reproductive preferences here controls for the number of living 

children (as well as all of the other covariates listed in Table 8.2). 

Age at marriage shows the expected negative effect on the number of children desired in only 

three of the five countries. Living in rural areas shows a direct effect with preferences in two of the 

countries. 

The number of years of schooling is negatively and significantly associated with the number of 

children desired in all five countries but wealth is inconsistently related. In the four countries where 

comparisons are possible, Muslim women show a significant positive association with the number of 

children desired. 

Exposure to the mass media, especially television, is typically negatively correlated with desired 

fertility. This is a somewhat stronger effect than observed with reproductive preference in earlier years 

(Westoff and Bankole, 1997) 

Women’s empowerment, as measured here2 shows some association with the desired number of 

children. The index includes women’s decision-making authority in areas of health care, daily and large 

household purchases, what to cook, and visits to friends and relatives. It shows if these decisions are 

exclusively the man’s then a greater number of children is desired. 

In sum, the main determinants of a large desired number of children that are generally consistent 

across all five countries are experience with child mortality, low education, Muslim affiliation, lack of 

exposure to mass media, and low women’s empowerment. 

The same general pattern of results in Table 8.2 is also evident in a logit regression analysis of the 

covariates of the proportion of women who want or do not want more children (not shown here). 

 

2

 The index of decision-making is the sum of five items on who has the final say, each dichotomized with a score 

of one if it is the husband alone and zero for all other responses. These measures are discussed at length in Kishor, 

2005. 
46 

Table 8.2. Multivariate analysis of factors associated with the number of children desired by married 

women (standardized partial regression coefficients).

Chad Guinea Mozambique Niger Nigeria

Characteristic 2004 2005 2003 2006 2008

Number of living children .178 .165 .222 .273 .206

Number of child deaths .108 .135 .137 .199 .126

Age (years) (.027) (.018) .104 -.116 -.055

Age at first marriage (years) (-.016) -.030 -.051 (.014) -.024

Rural residence .139 (.034) (-.020) .084 (.013)

Years of education -.117 -.070 -.089 -.105 -.120

Muslim .231 .125 .072 ― .153

Wealth .118 -.041 -.117 (-.027) -.114

Read newspapers, magazines (-.030) (-.024) (-.018) -.039 (.005)

Listen to radio -.057 -.040 .028 (-.023) (.004)

Watch television .048 -.048 -.069 -.032 -.046

Decision making1 NA .067 (.017) .056 .071

Number of women 3,827 5,448 8,207 6,340 20,254

R

2

.170 .141 .221 .165 .251

( ) not significant at the .05 level

1 Scaled with plus value indicating male dominance

Given that many women in these five countries have never used any contraception and do not 

intend to use any in the future, it is interesting to examine the covariates of this intention among the never 

users. In Table 8.3, a logit regression analysis shows the odds ratios of intending to use contraception 

among women who have never used any method. Younger women and those who married at older ages 

are more likely to intend to use a method. Both the number of living children and the number of child 

deaths are positively associated with intention to use a method among these women who have never used 

one while the number of children desired is negatively correlated. If the last birth was unintended (not 

included in Table 8.3), there is a strong intention to use a method. Women with some education are more 

likely to intend to use a method while being Muslim is negatively and strongly associated (Muslim 

women are less than half as likely to intend to use a method than non-Muslim women). Regularly 

listening to the radio and watching television predict intention to use as well as having heard radio 

messages about family planning. 
47 

Table 8.3. Multivariate logistic regression (odds ratios) of factors affecting intention to use contraception 

among married women who have never used any method.

Chad Guinea Mozambique Niger Nigeria 

Characteristic 2004 2005 2003 2006 2008

Number of living children 1.19 1.66 1.47 1.19 1.15

Number of child deaths

0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

 > 0 1.24 1.55 1.39 1.58 1.09

Age 0.92 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.94

Age at marriage*

< 18 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

≥18 1.28 1.35 1.86 1.55 1.49

Number of children desired 0.88 0.82 0.86 0.94 0.92

Residence

Urban 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Rural (0.83) (1.13) 1.68 (0.95) (1.06)

Education

None 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Some 1.53 1.26 1.49 (1.17) 1.62

Religion

Non-Muslim 1.00 1.00 1.00 ― 1.00

Muslim 0.46 0.47 0.48 ― 0.68

Wealth (0.97) (0.94) 1.28 0.81 (1.04)

Reads newspapers, magazines (0.83) (0.99) (1.25) (0.93) (0.97)

Listens to radio 1.27 1.30 (1.16) 1.28 1.11

Watches television (0.78) 1.34 1.83 1.36 (0.95)

Family planning messages on:

Radio 1.44 2.14 1.80 2.61 0.89

Television (1.43) (0.87) 0.63 (0.79) 1.23

Newspaper (0.68) (1.22) (0.77) 1.64 (0.88)

Decision making NA 0.96 (0.99) 0.91 (0.99)

Number of women 3,404 4,184 3,541 4,474 14,630

R

2

.110 .149 .173 .105 0.08

( ) not significant at the .05 level

* The dichotomy for Guinea and Mozambique is < 17 and ≥17

49 

9 Summary and Conclusions 

The main objective of this report is to review the most recent estimates and trends of reproductive 

preferences from the large number of surveys in the countries included in the DHS project. This is an 

update of earlier DHS comparative reports with the same focus but includes some new directions as well. 

The number of children desired or considered ideal remains highest in western and middle Africa 

with an average of 6 children desired. About 70 percent of women who have 4 children still want more 

children in this region. In southern and eastern Africa, the picture is significantly different with an 

average of 4.5 children desired and an average of 42 percent of women with 4 children who want more. 

The desired number of children is much lower in countries in North Africa, Asia, Latin America and the 

Caribbean, ranging from 2 to 4. 

In most of the countries in Asia and North Africa, there is a clear trend toward wanting no more 

children while in Latin America and the Caribbean intention to avoid further childbearing has already 

reached high levels with the exception of Guatemala and Haiti. This trend toward a desire for fewer 

children is also evident in southern and eastern Africa but the trends are mixed in western and middle 

Africa with numerous countries showing little indication of moving toward family limitation. 

The prevalence of unwanted births is highest in Latin America and the Caribbean with an average 

of 24 percent of recent births and lowest in western and middle Africa at 6 percent on average. The 

Wanted Total Fertility Rates are the lowest in Asia and North Africa with more than half of the surveyed 

countries below replacement levels. At the opposite extreme, 7 of the 17 countries in western and middle 

Africa have WTFRs above 5.0. In almost all countries with repeat surveys, the decline in the TFR is due 

to the reduction of the number of children wanted rather than to unwanted fertility. 

Analysis of the reproductive preferences of men is focused here on the countries of sub-Saharan 

Africa where male surveys have become common. The estimates of the number of children desired by 

men show the same pattern of country differences as among women with the highest in western and 

middle Africa and lowest in southern and eastern Africa. As observed in an earlier report, men desire 

more children than women with only some suggestion that this gender difference may be decreasing over 

time. 

One of the new directions pursued in this report is to study the trend of reproductive preferences 

among women with no education. How indispensable is the well-known association of women’s 

education with the number of children desired? There is evidence that in about one-third of the subSaharan African countries studied the proportion of uneducated women who do not want any more 

children is increasing. In some of the Asian countries, this trend among the uneducated sector of the 

population is very evident. 

Analysis in this report of the association of reproductive preferences with unmet need for family 

planning was prompted by the observation that although low levels of unmet need in most countries 

reflect increases in family planning use, some countries with low unmet need also have very low 

contraceptive prevalence. These are countries where very high proportions of women simply want more 

children and where the average number of children desired ranges from 5.9 to 9.1. In Chad, Guinea, 

Niger and Nigeria most women have never used a contraceptive method and say that they do not intend to 

use one. The covariates of both the number of children desired and intention to use a method in these 

countries were analyzed. The strongest predictors are the Muslim – non-Muslim distinction, low 

education and experience with child mortality. Mass media exposure is also relevant. 

51 

References 

Adetunji, Jacob A. 1998. Unintended Childbearing in Developing Countries: Levels, Trends, and 

Determinants. DHS Analytical Reports No. 8. Calverton, Maryland: Macro International Inc. 

Bankole, Akinrinola and Charles F. Westoff. 1995. Childbearing Attitudes and Intentions. DHS 

Comparative Studies No. 17. Calverton, Maryland: Macro International Inc. 

Bankole, Akinrinola and Charles F. Westoff 1998. The Consistency and Validity of Reproductive 

Attitudes: Evidence from Morocco. Journal of Biosocial Science, 30, pp.439-455. 

Bongaarts, John. 1990. The Measurement of Wanted Fertility. Population and Development Review, 

16, No.3, pp.487-506. 

Brazilian Ministry of Health and Center of Analysis and Planning. 2008. Pesquisa Nacional de 

Demografia e Saude da Crianca e da Mulher PNDS, 2006.

Casterline, John B. and Laila O. El-Zeini. 2007. The Estimation of Unwanted Fertility. Demography, 

44, No. 4, pp.729-745. 

Casterline, John B. and Jennifer Adams Mendoza. 2009. Unwanted Fertility in Latin America: Historical 

Trends, Recent Patterns. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of 

America, 2009. 

Hakkert, Ralph. 2001. Levels and Determinants of Wanted and Unwanted Fertility in Latin America. 

Paper presented at the General Conference of the IUSSP, Salvador, Brazil, August 18-24.

Kent, Mary Mederios and Ann Larson. 1982. Family Size Preferences: Evidence from the World 

Fertility Surveys. Population Reference Bureau. 

Kishor, Sunita, Ed. 2005. A Focus on Gender: Collected Papers on Gender Using DHS Data. Calverton, 

Maryland, USA: ORC Macro.

Ministerio de Salud Publica y Asistencia Social; Instituto Nacional de Estadistica; y Centros papr el 

Control y Prevencion de Enfermedades. 2002. Encuesta Nacional de Salud Materno Infantil 2002. 

Guatemala: MSPAS, INE y CDC.

Rutstein, Shea O. 1998. Change in the Desired Number of Children: A Cross-Country Analysis of Levels 

and Correlates of Change. DHS Analytical Reports No. 9, Calverton, MD, USA: Macro International, 

Inc. 

United Nations. 1985. Fertility Preferences: Selected Findings from the World Fertility Survey Data, 

Chapter 3 in the United Nations Fertility Levels, Patterns and Differentials: A Comparative Analysis 

Using WFS Data. New York. 

United Nations Development Program. 2008. Human Development Indices: A Statistical Update 2008. 

United Nations. 2009. What Would It Take to Accelerate Fertility Decline in the Least Developed 

Countries? UN Population Division Policy Brief, No. 2009/1. 
52 

USAID, CDC. 2005. Reproductive, Maternal, and Child Health in Central America: Trends and 

Challenges Facing Women and Children. 

Westoff, Charles F. and Akinrinola Bankole. 2002. Reproductive Preferences in Developing Countries at 

the Turn of the Century. DHS Comparative Reports No. 2. Calverton, Maryland: ORC Macro. 

Westoff, Charles F. 1991. Reproductive Preferences: A Comparative View. DHS Comparative Studies, 

No. 3. Columbia, Maryland: Institute for Resource Development. 

Westoff, Charles F. 1990. Reproductive Intentions and Fertility Rates. International Family Planning 

Perspectives, 16, No.3, pp.84-89.

Westoff, Charles F. 2008. A New Approach to Estimating Abortion Rates. DHS Analytical Studies, 

No.13. Calverton, Maryland, USA: Macro International Inc. 

Westoff, Charles F. and Akinrinola Bankole. 1997. Mass Media and Reproductive Behavior in Africa. 

DHS Analytical Reports No. 2. Calverton, MD, USA: Macro International, Inc. 

Westoff, Charles F. and Anne R. Cross. 2006. The Stall in the Fertility Transition in Kenya. DHS 

Analytical Studies No. 9. Calverton, Maryland: ORC Macro. 
53 

Appendix A: Measures of Reproductive Preferences 

This study has used four measures of reproductive preferences for each country: the desired or 

ideal number of children, the related Wanted Total Fertility Rate, the proportion of women who want no 

more children, and the proportion of births unwanted in the past five years. These measures have been 

used in surveys for the past 25 years of DHS history and before that in the World Fertility Survey for an 

additional 13 years. They originated in nation-wide surveys in the United States going back to 1955 and 

earlier on more local scales and in developing countries in the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices (KAP) 

surveys. It is no exaggeration that some of these measures have a history of perhaps 65 years. 

Despite their longevity, these indices have been repeatedly questioned by researchers (Bongaarts, 

1990; Hakkert, 2001; Casterline and El-Zeini, 2007; Westoff, 1990) and other critics. Are the measures 

valid? Do they predict behavior? Are they reliable? Are the survey questions understood in countries 

with low levels of numeracy? Do women report the wantedness of recent births accurately or is there a 

tendency with the passage of time to rationalize unwanted births as wanted? 

The most relevant research on some of these questions (Bankole and Westoff, 1998) is based on a 

panel study of women in Morocco who were initially interviewed in 1992 and re-interviewed in 1995. 

The second interview included the same questions about reproductive preferences at both times as well as 

questions about the planning status of the same births reported in the earlier survey. Without going into 

the details of that study, we can summarize the results as follows: 

The consistency of reporting the same number of total children desired is weak at the individual 

level but virtually perfect in the aggregate. This measure is thus seen as useful for indicating general 

population norms but not for individual predictive purposes. 

The consistency of reports on whether additional births are wanted is much higher at the 

individual level and also significantly predicts subsequent fertility. 

There are serious inconsistencies in the reporting of whether births were wanted or unwanted that 

indicate a process of post-factum rationalization of unwanted births as wanted, with a tendency for this 

process to increase with the duration of time since the births. 

It seems safe to say that these conclusions have been largely accepted by researchers and have 

been buttressed by other findings. One qualification is in order about the rationalization of unwanted as 

wanted births. If this process is true, one might expect to see a higher proportion of births in crosssectional data reported as unwanted that are closer to the date of the birth. Data from several recent 

surveys have been examined in which the planning status of the last birth is tabulated over a five-year 

period but no evidence at all appears that the proportion unwanted diminishes with time. Thus, there is 

still some question about all of this but the longitudinal design is clearly the superior approach (Bankole 

and Westoff, 1998). 

The important consensus that has emerged is that the intention to have or not have more children 

is the superior measure. On this premise, Casterline and El-Zeini (2007) have proposed an interesting 

new approach to the estimation of unwanted fertility that utilizes reproductive intentions in combination 

with childbearing within the past 36 months. The authors kindly provided estimates for most of the DHS 

countries compared with the direct survey estimates. From these data, based on 54 of the most recent 

surveys, the mean percent of unwanted births is 28 with their procedure compared with 13 percent based 

on the standard DHS measure and 16 percent based on the difference between the actual and ideal number 

of births. This significantly higher estimate has been noted by the authors. Several countries show 

extreme differences between the Casterline – El-Zeini estimates and the standard DHS planning status 
54 

measure. Bolivia is the most extreme difference at 60 percent of births unwanted compared with the DHS 

estimate of 39 percent; in Swaziland, the estimates are 55 and 37 percent respectively. Differences of this 

magnitude are not negligible. The judgment here is that although the DHS estimates of unwanted births 

may be somewhat low, they seem more plausible. 

Another perspective on the various measures of reproductive preferences is their intercorrelations. 

Are they all capturing the same dimension or are there major differences? In Table A1, these 

intercorrelations among several of the main measures are shown for the 54 recent country surveys. The 

correlation between the standard DHS measure of unwanted births and the Casterline – El-Zeini measure 

is .83, indicating that the rank order distribution of the countries by the proportion or recent births 

unwanted is fairly similar (even though the mean values are quite different as noted above). There are 

similar correlations of both measures of unwanted births with the measures of desire for no more children, 

ideal number of children and the WTFR. There are very high correlations among the proportion who 

want no more children, the ideal number and the Wanted Total Fertility Rate. This does not mean that the 

DHS measures are more valid but only that they are more on the same dimension. Both measures of the 

proportion of unwanted births yield lower correlations with the other measures of preference which is to 

be expected since they capture a somewhat different though related dimension of reproductive 

preferences. 

So, the question of the comparative validity of the two approaches to the measure of unwanted 

births remains unanswered from this analysis although there is clear evidence that the other measures lie 

on a similar dimension. One possible criterion of validity might be the association of the unwanted births 

measures with abortion rates which are certainly an indicator of unwantedness. A recent measure of 

abortion rates has been developed (Westoff, 2008) which has been added here to the survey data to 

explore this connection with the two measures of unwanted births. The results for the 54 countries show 

very similar but low correlations of the estimated Total Abortion Rate with the Casterline – El-Zeini 

method (estimated at -.29) and with the standard DHS measure (-.35), a result that does not settle 

anything. If this test is applied to the 30 sub-Saharan African countries in this report, the difference is 

greater: -.28 with the Casterline – El-Zeini method (not statistically significant) and -.51 with the standard 

DHS method. This would seem to favor the DHS measure but on very limited evidence. 
55 

Table A-1. Correlations of indicators of reproductive preferences (N = 54 countries).

Casterline E-2 DHS unw WNM IDEAL WTFR

Casterline 1.00

DHS percent unwanted .83 1.00

Percent want no more .63 .64 1.00

Mean ideal number -.64 -.59 -.95 1.00

WTFR -.57 -.54 -.90 .93 1.00

 

DHS Comparative Reports Series 

1. Westoff, Charles F. 2001. Unmet Need at the End of the Century.

2. Westoff, Charles F., and Akinrinola Bankole. 2002. Reproductive Preferences in Developing 

Countries at the Turn of the Century. 

3. Rutstein, Shea O. 2002. Fertility Levels, Trends, and Differentials 1995-1999.

4. Mahy, Mary. 2003. Childhood Mortality in the Developing World: A Review of Evidence from the 

Demographic and Health Surveys.

5. Westoff, Charles F. 2003. Trends in Marriage and Early Childbearing in Developing Countries.

6. Rutstein, Shea O., and Kiersten Johnson. 2004. The DHS Wealth Index.

7. Yoder, P. Stanley, Noureddine Abderrahim, and Arlinda Zhuzhuni. 2004. Female Genital Cutting in 

the Demographic and Health Surveys: A Critical and Comparative Analysis.

8. Stallings, Rebecca. 2004. Child Morbidity and Treatment Patterns.

9. Rutstein, Shea O., and Iqbal H. Shah. 2004. Infecundity, Infertility, and Childlessness in 

Developing Countries.

10. Mukuria, Altrena, Jeanne Cushing, and Jasbir Sangha. 2005. Nutritional Status of Children: Results 

from the Demographic and Health Surveys, 1994–2001.

11. Mukuria, Altrena, Casey Aboulafia, and Albert Themme. 2005. The Context of Women’s Health: 

Results from the Demographic and Health Surveys, 1994-2001.

12. Yoder, P. Stanley, Noureddine Abderrahim, and Arlinda Zhuzhini. 2005. L’excision dans les Enquêtes 

Démographiques et de Santé: Une Analyse Comparative.

13. Garenne, Michel, and Julien Zwang. 2006. Premarital Fertility and Ethnicity in Africa.

14. Westoff, Charles F. 2006. New Estimates of Unmet Need and the Demand for Family Planning.

15. Fort, Alfredo L., Monica T. Kothari, and Noureddine Abderrahim. 2006. Postpartum Care: Levels and 

Determinants in Developing Countries.

16. Khan, Shane, Vinod Mishra, Fred Arnold, and Noureddine Abderrahim. 2007. Contraceptive Trends 

in Developing Countries. 

17. Johnson, Kiersten, and Yuan Gu. 2009. Men’s Reproductive Health: Findings from Demographic and 

Health Surveys, 1995-2005. 

18. Garenne, M. Michel. 2008. Fertility Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa.

19. Khan, Shane, and Vinod Mishra. 2008. Youth Reproductive and Sexual Health.

20. Kishor, Sunita, and Lekha Subaiya. 2008. Understanding Women’s Empowerment: A Comparative 

Analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Data.

21. Mishra, Vinod, Shane Khan, Li Liu, and Benny Kottiri. 2008. Medical Injection Use and HIV in SubSaharan Africa.

22. Mishra, Vinod, Amy Medley, Rathavuth Hong, Yuan Gu, and Bryant Robey. 2009. Levels and Spread 

of HIV Seroprevalence and Associated Factors: Evidence from National Household Surveys. 

23. Sneeringer, Stacy E. 2009. Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of 

Cohort Trends in 30 Countries. 

24. Mishra, Vinod, Praween Agrawal, Soumya Alva, Yuan Gu, and Shanxiao Wang. 2009. Changes in 

HIV-Related Knowledge and Behaviors in Sub-Saharan Africa.

25. Westoff, Charles F. 2010. Desired Number of Children: 2000-2008.