FAA-APO-03-3 

 FAA LONG-RANGE 

 AEROSPACE FORECASTS

 FISCAL YEARS

 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 

 OFFICE OF 

 AVIATION POLICY AND PLANS 

 JUNE 2003
 

2

FAA LONG-RANGE 

 AEROSPACE FORECASTS 

 FISCAL YEARS 

 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030

I. SUMMARY

To assure consistency in agency planning, the Office of Aviation Policy and Plans provides an 

extension of its annual 12-year forecasts of aviation demand. Although forecast values are 

shown for specific years, year-to-year fluctuations are difficult to forecast precisely. Therefore, 

the projections reflect the trend of average conditions expected during the forecast period. 

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) annual 12-year forecast is utilized for both 

manpower and facility planning as well as for policy and regulatory analysis. The latest 12-year 

forecast (FAA-APO-03-1, FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2003-2014, March 2003) 

provides projections of aviation activity and FAA workload measures through the year 2014. 

Periodically, a need arises for projections of aviation demand and activity beyond the published 

horizon. This document was developed to meet these needs, and contains projections for 

commercial and general aviation aircraft fleet and hours, air carrier and regional/commuter 

passenger enplanements (domestic and international), and air carrier air cargo revenue ton-miles 

(RTMs). 

The economic assumptions used in developing these extended forecasts are as follows: 

• The economy will grow at a rate comparable to the immediate 12-year period--

3.1 percent versus 3.2 percent annually; 

• inflation will be higher than in the immediate forecast period--averaging 3.4 percent 

annually compared to 2.2 percent; and 

• higher real fuel prices--an increase of 1.7 percent annually compared to a decrease of 

1.6 percent annually during the 2003-2014 period; 

These assumptions translate into generally lower growth in aviation activity and FAA workload 

measures during the extended 16-year period (2015 to 2030) than was forecast for the immediate 
 

3

10-year period (2005 to 2014)1. Table 1 shows comparative annual growth rates for 3 time 

periods: (1) 2003 to 2004; (2) 2005 to 2014; and (3) 2015 to 2030. 

II. LONG-RANGE FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

The long-range aviation forecasts are based on assumptions concerning the future of the 

commercial and general aviation industries and on the latest macroeconomic projections. For the 

purposes of this report, the forecast period refers to the long-range outlook, particularly the 2015 

to 2030 period. Much of the discussion assumes some familiarity with the forecasts contained in 

FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2003-2014 (March 2003). Copies of this report can be 

obtained from the FAA Statistics and Forecast Branch, APO-110, by calling (202) 267-3355. 

The Executive Summary and 49 forecast tables can be found on the Internet at 

http://api.hq.faa.gov/apo_pubs.htm/. 

The above referenced document also addresses the forecast assumptions relating to the events of 

September 11, 2001, and their impact on projected levels of aviation demand. The following 

long-range forecasts are extensions of the immediate 10-year forecasts (2005 to 2014). The 

forecast assumes that this period is distinguished by a return to more normal levels of growth in 

the demand for aviation products and services. Without going into more detail, the basic impact 

of the events of September 11 has been to set back traffic projections by about two years 

compared to last year’s forecasts. 

A. Economic Assumptions

The long-range economic forecasts are based on the economic projections developed by the 

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Global Insight, Inc. (formerly known as 

DRI/WEFA Inc). OMB’s projections of U.S. economic growth were used for the period 2002-

2014 and then extrapolated to 2030. The Global Insight economic projections for U.S. inflation 

and international economic growth, which extend through the year 2027, have been extrapolated 

to 2030. The economic forecasts were developed utilizing trend projections and assume that the 

economy experiences relatively stable growth throughout the 2005-2030 period. Essentially, 

these projections represent the average of the possible paths that the U.S. and global economy 

could follow. Using trend projections assumes that: (1) no major shocks will occur (the rapid 

run-up in oil prices in 2001/02 and subsequent rapid decline in 2003/04 is assumed to be a 

temporary condition); (2) economic policies remain stable; (3) national and international markets 

do not experience dramatic shifts in either the supply or demand for economic goods and 

services; and (4) the forecasts are not capacity constrained, and assume that the FAA and the 

airlines will develop cost efficient solutions to mitigate any delay/congestion problems. These 

long-term economic projections represent appropriate points from which to evaluate the effects 

of variations about the mean of expected values of various activity measures, transportation 

services, or FAA workload measures. 

 

1

 A 10-year period is used for comparative purposes since both 2003 and 2004 are distorted due to the continuing 

effect of the terrorist events of September 11. 
 

4

TABLE 1 

COMPARISON OF

INTERMEDIATE AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

 

Average Annual Percent Change

2003 - 2004 2005 - 2014 2015 - 2030

AVIATION ACTIVITY 

Passenger Enplanements 

 U.S. Domestic 

 Large Air Carriers 3.4 3.5 3.2 

 Regionals/Commuters 8.3 4.8 3.5 

 International* 4.7 4.6 3.9 

 

Air Cargo Freight RTMs 

 Domestic 4.5 3.9 3.5 

 International 4.9 5.9 4.4 

 

Aircraft Fleets 

 Air Carrier (1.0) 2.6 2.9 

 Regional/Commuter** 7.0 3.3 2.5 

 Cargo Jets 2.3 3.6 3.0 

 General Aviation 0.5 0.7 0.5 

 

Hours Flown 

 Air Carrier*** 1.0 3.5 2.9 

 Regional/Commuter (Block Hrs) 7.1 4.2 2.7 

 General Aviation 1.3 1.6 1.2 

 

Pilots 

 Total 0.7 1.5 1.2 

 Instrument Rated 1.0 1.8 1.2 

 

FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES 

 Tower Operations  1.3 1.7 1.7 

 Instrument Operations** ** 1.1 2.0 1.9 

 IFR Aircraft Handled 1.3 2.1 2.1 

 Flight Service Stations (0.3) 0.6 0.6 

 

* Total international passengers to and from United States—U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers. 

** Includes regional jets. 

*** Includes both passenger and cargo operations. 

**** Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers.
 

5

The long-range economic outlook from Global Insight is relatively unchanged from the 2002 

projections. The forecasting service is fairly consistent in its expectations for growth in 

economic output, prices, and interest rates. The major economic assumptions are addressed in 

more detail below. 

Real Gross Domestic Product

The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a moderate rate of 3.1 percent annually during the 28-

year forecast period. Growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for price changes 

and expressed in 1996 dollars, is projected to average 3.1 percent annually over the extended 16-

year (2015 to 2030) forecast period. This is comparable to both the historic rate of growth 

(2.9 percent between 1974 and 2000) and the projected growth for the immediate 12-year 

forecast period (3.2 percent between 2002 and 2014). 

International economic growth is expected to grow at rates comparable to those of the U.S. 

during the 28-year forecast period. World real GDP is projected to average 3.3 percent annually 

for the immediate 12-year forecast period and 2.8 percent annually over the extended 16-year 

forecast period. These rates of growth are comparable to the historic rate of growth of 

2.8 percent between 1980 and 2000. 

Consumer Price Index

Inflation is not expected to return to the high rates experienced during the latter half of the 1970s 

and early 1980s (8.7 percent annual growth between 1972 and 1982) during the entire 28-year 

forecast period. Global Insight’s opinion is that there will be little upward pressure from real 

wage rates and commodity prices, and that the Federal Reserve is committed to controlling 

inflation while allowing the money supply to grow enough to ensure growth in output. The 

consumer price index is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent a year 

during the 28-year time period--2.2 percent during the immediate period, but increasing to 

3.4 percent over the extended forecast period. 

Fuel Prices

Fuel prices, as measured by the Oil and Gas Deflator, are forecast to increase at an annual rate of 

3.1 percent over the 28-year forecast period—slightly higher than the expected overall inflation 

rate. Between 2002 and 2014, nominal fuel prices are projected to increase 0.5 percent annually, 

a 1.6 percent decline annually in real terms. Between 2014 and 2030, nominal fuel prices are 

forecast to increase 5.1 percent annually, an increase of 1.7 percent annually in real terms. 

Interest Rates

Long-term nominal interest rates are tied to inflationary expectations. The Federal Reserve is 

expected to pursue a monetary policy that keeps inflation in check and allows for sufficient 

money growth to sustain economic output gains. Given the long-term outlook for inflation, longterm interest rates are expected to remain fairly stable during both the immediate and extended 

forecast periods. Interest rates are expected to increase from 5.5 percent in 2002 to 5.9 percent in 

2014 and rise to 7.5 percent by 2030. 
 

6

ECONOMIC VARIABLES FORECASTS

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

TRILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

INDEX: 1996 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

INDEX: 1982-84 = 100

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

PERCENT INTEREST RATE

REAL GDP CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

OIL AND GAS DEFLATOR 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BONDS
 

7

B. Operational Variables

The long-range forecasts of various operational variables discussed below are, for the most part, 

a continuation of the trends discussed in greater detail in FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 

2003-2014. As with the economic projections, these forecasts reflect an average trend of the 

possible paths that the various operational variables could follow. These long-term projections 

represent appropriate points from which to evaluate the effects of variations about the expected 

values of various activity measures, transportation demand and services, or FAA workload 

measures. 

Air Carrier Passenger Yield

The current 12-year and extended 16-year forecasts assume that real domestic passenger yields 

(expressed as revenue per passenger mile) will continue its historical long-term gradual 

downward trend. Real domestic passenger yields are projected to decline by 0.9 percent 

annually over the 28-year period. The downward trend in real domestic yields is based on the 

assumptions of continued strong competition in the industry, and continued improvements in 

efficiency and productivity. 

There has been a long-term decrease in international real yields similar to that experienced in the 

domestic market. However, real yields in international markets are generally lower than in the 

domestic market, because of lower operating costs. These lower costs are associated with longer 

average stage length and with the use of larger aircraft, which tend to have lower seat mile costs. 

It is assumed that productivity and competition will continue to expand in international markets 

over the forecast period, and this will push real yields lower. Market efficiencies will be 

achieved with the use of more productive aircraft, expanded open-skies agreements, and 

extended global alliances. Total international real yields for U.S. flag carriers are expected to 

decline 0.6 percent annually through 2014. Over the 28-year period, international yields, 

adjusted for inflation, are expected to decline 0.4 percent a year. 

Average Aircraft Size

The average number of seats per aircraft for the U.S. air carrier domestic fleet is projected to 

grow modestly throughout the immediate 12-year forecast period. Increases in average seats per 

aircraft in the near term will be achieved through retirement of older, smaller aircraft. As a 

result, the increase in seats per aircraft will be somewhat lower than the 12-year average. By 

2005 most of the smaller hush-kitted stage-2 aircraft will have either been replaced with 

generally larger stage-3 aircraft or retired. Over the immediate 12-year forecast period, the 

average seats per aircraft for the domestic fleet is expected to grow by 0.9 seats per year--from 

147.9 in 2002 to 159.2 in 2014. 

The average seating capacity of the domestic air carrier fleet is expected to continue to increase 

over the extended 16-year forecast period. The new aircraft entering the fleet during this period 

are expected to be somewhat larger than the aircraft being replaced. Therefore, the average seats 

per aircraft for the domestic air carrier fleet is expected to increase by one seat annually over the 

extended forecast period, reaching 175.2 seats in 2030. 
 

8

The average number of seats per aircraft for the U.S. air carrier international fleet is expected to 

grow modestly over the 28-year forecast period as the U.S. carriers expand non-stop city-pair 

service into deep South America, Europe, and Asia. Although U.S. carriers are expected to 

employ larger two-engine, two-aisle aircraft in Atlantic and Pacific markets, the relatively rapid 

growth of the Latin American markets, where aircraft seating capacity is significantly smaller, 

will limit the increases in seats per aircraft. The average number of seats per aircraft in 

international markets is expected to increase from 228.5 seats in 2002 to 238.5 seats in 2030. 

The average seating capacity of regional/commuter aircraft is forecast to increase by 0.6 seats 

annually between 2003 and 2014 (from 42.8 to 50.4 seats). This trend is expected to continue 

over the extended forecast period, with the average seating capacity of regional/commuter 

aircraft averaging approximately 58.4 seats in the year 2030. This reflects the continued 

introduction of greater numbers of regional jet aircraft (up to 70 seats) into the 

regional/commuter fleet. The extended range and greater speed offered by these aircraft are 

expected to expand the market potential for the regional industry, and continue to blur the 

distinction between regional/commuters and the large commercial operators. 

Load Factor

Domestic air carrier load factors are projected to remain at their current historical high levels 

throughout the remainder of the immediate and extended forecast periods. During the past 

several years, airline scheduling policies have allowed air carriers to rapidly adjust capacity 

levels to more closely correspond to changes in passenger demand. This ability to make rapid 

adjustments to meet changing demand conditions has enabled the airlines to push up load factors 

to all-time highs. It is expected that present fleet plans will provide capacity levels that should 

maintain the air carrier load factors at between 72 and 76 percent throughout the forecast period. 

As in domestic markets, the wide range of aircraft capable of international flight also allows U.S. 

airlines to adjust their international capacity levels to changing levels of demand. The 

international load factor is also forecast to remain relatively stable during the 28-year forecast 

period, increasing slightly from 74.6 percent in 2002 to 76.5 percent in 2030. 

Regional/commuter load factors are projected to increase from 61.3 percent in 2002 to 

64.0 percent in 2014. During the extended forecast period, regional/commuter load factors are 

expected to rise to 65.6 percent by 2030. The higher load factors result from the continued 

introduction of larger regional jet aircraft and the need to cover the higher cost per seat mile 

associated with these aircraft. 
 

9

OPERATIONAL VARIABLES FORECASTS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

CENTS PER RPM IN 2002 DOLLARS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

PERCENTAGE OF ASMS FILLED

LARGE AIR CARRIER REGIONAL/COMMUTER

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT

REAL DOMESTIC 

PASSENGER YIELD

DOMESTIC PASSENGER 

LOAD FACTOR

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

DOMESTIC AIR CARRIER AIRCRAFT

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

REGIONAL/COMMUTER AIRCRAFT
 

10

III. LONG-RANGE AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Forecasts of various measures of aviation activity for 2002 and 5-year increments between 2002 

and 2030 are provided in Table 2, page 14. A discussion of some of these measures of aviation 

activity follows in the paragraphs below. 

A. Passenger Enplanements and Cargo 

Air Carrier

Air carrier demand, as measured by domestic passenger enplanements, is projected to continue to 

grow faster than the general economy. For the period 2005 to 2014, domestic passenger 

enplanements are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent compared to a 

3.1 percent annual growth rate in real GDP. Over the extended forecast period (2015-2030), 

domestic passenger enplanements are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 

3.3 percent compared to real GDP growth of 3.1 percent annually. 

Forecasts of total international passenger traffic to and from the U.S. (U.S. and foreign flag 

carriers), are provided between the United States and three world travel areas--Atlantic, Latin 

America (including Mexico and the Caribbean), and the Pacific/Far East--as well as for 

U.S./Canadian transborder traffic. Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest 

of the world is expected to grow from 122.0 million in 2002 to 389.8 million in 2030, an average 

annual growth rate of 4.2 percent. Passenger traffic in the Latin American markets is expected to 

post the strongest growth at 4.7 percent annually through 2030. The second fastest growing market 

will be the Pacific market that is projected to grow at 4.4 percent annually during the same time 

period. The Atlantic market is forecast to grow at 4.1 percent annually through 2030, followed by 

Transborder traffic at 2.9 percent for the 28-year forecast period. 

Regionals/Commuters

The regional/commuter industry is projected to continue to grow at a relatively faster pace than 

the large air carriers through both the immediate and extended forecast periods, averaging 5.6 

and 3.5 percent, respectively. A large part of the growth during the early years of the immediate 

forecast period results from a continuation of the shift of low-density, short-haul markets from 

the larger air carriers to their commuter code-share partners, a trend that was accelerated in the 

aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks. However, most of the growth during the 

extended forecast period is expected to result from new markets created by the expanded use of 

regional jet aircraft. 

The introduction and popularity of regional jets is expected to open up new growth opportunities 

in thin, intermediate range markets that cannot be served economically with large jet aircraft. 

The speed and range of the regional jet also offers the opportunity for more point-to-point (hub 

bypass) operations in markets that are currently served only via connecting flights through large 

hubs. There are currently 16 regional/commuter operators operating regional jet aircraft. This, 

together with the public preference for jet aircraft, should ensure that the regional/commuter 

industry should continue to grow more rapidly than the large air carriers. 
 

11

Air Cargo

The air cargo forecast discussed here is comprised of domestic and international revenue 

freight/express and mail carried by U.S. commercial air carriers and is measured by revenue tonmiles (RTMs). Air cargo is moved in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo 

aircraft on both scheduled and non-scheduled service. 

In 2002, combined domestic and international RTMs flown by U.S. commercial air carriers 

totaled 27.3 billion. By 2014 this figure is projected to reach 49.0 billion, an average annual 

increase of 5.0 percent. During the extended forecast period, total domestic and international 

cargo RTMs is projected to total 92.6 billion RTMs, an average annual increase of 4.0 percent. 

Over the entire 28-year period, growth in total freight/express RTMs is expected to average 

4.5 percent annually. 

Domestic RTMs are forecast to increase from 13.1 billion in 2002 to 36.4 billion in 2030, an 

average annual increase of 3.7 percent over the 28-year forecast period. International RTMs are 

forecast to grow at a faster rate than domestic RTMs, increasing from 14.2 billion in 2002 to 

56.2 billion in 2030, averaging 5.0 percent growth annually for the 28-year forecast period. This 

expectation is based on the projected strong economic growth in world GDP, especially in the 

Latin American and Asian regions. 

B. Aircraft Fleets and Hours Flown 

Commercial Air Carriers

The commercial air carrier passenger jet fleet is forecast to increase at an annual rate of 

1.9 percent from 4,180 aircraft in 2002 to 5,261 aircraft in 2014. The size of the fleet declines in 

2003 and 2004 as carriers due to the lingering effects of the September 11th terror attacks and the 

subsequent restructuring of the industry. Starting in 2005, the passenger jet fleet grows at an 

annual rate of 2.6 percent per year through 2014. By far the largest increase, in terms of number 

of aircraft, is projected to occur in the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category, which is 

expected to grow by an average of over 80 aircraft (2.1 percent) annually. By 2014, the twoengine narrowbody aircraft category is expected to total 4,323 units and account for 82.2 percent 

of the fleet. This trend is also expected to continue throughout the extended forecast period. 

Between 2015 and 2030, the air carrier fleet is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 

2.9 percent, reaching a total of 8,284 aircraft. Again, the largest growth in the fleet is expected 

to occur in the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category. In 2030, this category is forecast to 

grow to 7,022 units and account for almost 85 percent of the fleet. 

The cargo jet fleet is projected to increase at an annual rate of 3.4 percent during the immediate 

12-year forecast period, from 1,034 aircraft in 2002 to 1,547 in 2014. During the extended 16-

year forecast period, the cargo jet fleet is forecast to increase at a 3.2 percent average annual rate 

reaching 2,482 aircraft by 2030. Over the entire 28-year forecast period, the cargo jet fleet is 

forecast to grow at a faster average annual rate than the passenger fleet (3.2 percent compared to 
 

12

2.5 percent), reflecting the expected higher sustained growth in cargo traffic--especially 

international traffic. 

The regional/commuter fleet is expected to grow from its current 2,521 aircraft in 2002 to 6,012 

by the year 2030. This is an average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent over the 28-year forecast 

period, or an increase of approximately 125 aircraft annually. This includes the smaller regional 

jets (30 to 70 seats), which will be introduced into the fleet in significant numbers over the 

forecast period. 

The number of hours flown by the large commercial passenger and cargo jet aircraft is forecast 

to increase by 3.1 percent annually between 2003 and 2014, and by 2.9 percent annually between 

2015 and 2030. The immediate and extended range fleet forecasts imply that U.S. air carriers 

will use larger aircraft and operate at continued high load factors to accommodate increasing 

passenger demand. The forecasts of hours flown imply that the average utilization of the U.S. 

fleet will increase gradually over the 28-year forecast period. Regional/commuter block hours 

are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent during the same time period--

from 5.5 million hours in 2002 to 14.8 million in 2030. 

General Aviation Aircraft & Hours Flown

The number of active general aviation aircraft is expected to increase from 211,040 aircraft in 

2002 to 229,490 in 2014, and then expand to 249,070 by 2030. This represents an average 

annual growth of 0.7 percent during the immediate forecast period and 0.5 percent over the 

extended forecast period. The piston engine portion of the general aviation fixed-wing aircraft 

fleet is forecast to increase by 0.2 percent during both the immediate and extended forecast 

periods. Fixed-wing turbine powered general aviation aircraft are expected to increase 

2.8 percent annually between 2003 and 2014, and by 2.2 percent during the 2015 to 2030 period. 

The higher growth rate for the turbine portion of the fleet is based on the expectations of a 

greater business and corporate use of general aviation aircraft in an expanding U.S. economy. 

Growth in general aviation flight hours is forecast to increase at a faster rate than the active fleet. 

General aviation activity is very sensitive to changes in fuel price and variations in the rate of 

economic growth. Based on the assumptions of sustained economic growth, relative stability in 

fuel prices, and the continued growth in fractional ownership programs and corporate flying, it is 

expected that aircraft utilization rates will return to or surpass the higher levels experienced prior 

to the 1990-1991 economic recession. As such, general aviation flight hours are forecast to 

increase from 29.5 million in 2002 to 35.3 million in 2014, and to 43.0 million in 2030-- 1.5 and 

1.2 percent annual growth, respectively. 

The positive forecasts for general aviation fleet and flight hours are heavily dependent on the 

assumptions related to continued economic growth and price stability. However, equally 

important to future growth are continued investment in plant expansion and production by 

general aviation manufacturers and the success of industry programs, such as “GA Team 2000,” 

to foster the growth in number of student pilots. If the general aviation industry falters in its 

efforts to stimulate the production of new general aviation products and services, and/or the 

growth in the number of student pilots, the outlook for the active fleet, hours flown, and general 
 

13

aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities could be considerably lower than the current 

projections. 

C. Pilot Population

The total pilot population is forecast to increase from 661,358 in 2002 to 935,305 by the year 

2030, an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent over the 28-year forecast period. Much of the 

growth results from the continuing demand for airline transport pilots. Additionally, recent 

industry program initiatives designed to promote the benefits of general aviation flying to 

businesses and the public, to stimulate growth in the number of new student pilots, and to 

develop an improved flight training infrastructure are also expected to contribute to the growth in 

the pilot population. During this same time period, the number of instrument rated pilots is 

expected to increase from 317,389 to 469,800. The percentage of instrument rated pilots 

increases from 48.0 percent in 2002 to 50.2 percent in 2030. 

D. Total Aviation Activity

Total civil aircraft activity at towered airports (266 FAA and 217 contract in 2002) and nontowered airports (based on projections for just under 4,000 public use airports in the Terminal 

Area Forecast database) is forecast to reach 162.8 million by the year 2030, an average annual 

growth of 0.6 percent over the activity level forecast for 2014 (137.7 million operations). This in 

turn is an average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent over the 121.3 million total aircraft 

operations recorded in 2002. 

Commercial aircraft operations (the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at all U.S. airports, 

towered and non-towered, are projected to increase from 27.9 million in 2002 to 35.2 million in 

2014, and to 47.5 million in 2030. These forecasts imply an average annual growth rate of 

2.0 percent over the immediate forecast period, and 1.9 percent over the extended forecast 

period. 

The number of general aviation operations at towered and non-towered airports is forecast to 

increase from 87.7 million in 2002 to 96.7 million in 2014 and to 109.6 million in 2030. The 

average annual growth rate for both the immediate forecast and the extended forecast period is 

0.8 percent. Much of the growth is the result of increased use of the turbine fleet for 

business/corporate related flying. 
 

14

 TABLE 2

 LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

 AVIATION DEMAND AND ACTIVITY

Actual March 2003 Forecast Long Range Forecast

2002 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Enplanements and 

Air Cargo (In Millions)

 

Enplanements 

 Commercial Air Carriers 

 Domestic* 488.8 498.8 540.4 637.5 768.0 891.4 1,045.2 1,238.0 

 International** 122.0 127.7 140.8 177.2 219.3 268.0 324.1 389.8 

 Regional/Commuter 90.7 97.1 114.0 146.4 181.1 218.7 259.9 305.4 

Freight/Express RTMs 25.8 25.2 29.7 38.8 51.2 63.2 76.8 92.6 

 

Aircraft Fleets

(in Thousands) 

Air Carrier-Large Jets 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.7 5.4 6.3 7.2 8.3 

Cargo-Jet Aircraft 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5 

Regional/Commuter 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.3 6.0 

 Regional Jets 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.3 5.0 

 Turboprops 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 

General Aviation 

 Piston Engine 162.7 162.8 163.5 166.0 167.8 169.6 170.9 172.3 

 Turbine Engine 14.6 14.9 15.6 18.3 20.8 23.4 26.1 28.9 

 Helicopters 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.0 

 Experimental/Other 26.9 26.9 29.4 32.3 34.8 36.8 38.5 39.9 

 

Hours Flown

(In Millions) 

Air Carrier 12.9 12.8 13.7 16.3 19.4 22.4 25.8 29.9 

Regional/Commuter*** 5.5 5.9 6.6 8.3 9.9 11.2 12.9 14.8 

General Aviation 29.5 29.8 30.7 33.2 35.8 38.2 40.6 43.0 

 

Active Pilots

(In Thousands) 

Total 661.4 664.8 680.1 736.2 787.5 836.4 885.4 935.3 

Instrument Rated 317.4 319.6 329.3 362.5 391.3 417.4 442.8 469.8 

Estimated U. S. 

Civil Operations

(In Millions) 

Commercial 27.9 28.3 29.6 32.7 35.8 39.1 43.0 47.5 

General Aviation 87.7 88.5 90.0 93.7 97.4 101.2 105.3 109.6 

* Large Commercial Carriers only (excluding Form 41 Commuters) 

** Total international passengers to and from the United States—U.S. and Foreign Flag carriers 

*** Block Hours 
 

15

AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MILLIONS OF PSGRS

Domestic International

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

THOUSANDS OF AIRCRAFT

Air Carrier Regional/Commuter

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MILLIONS OF PSGRS

Domestic International

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

THOUSANDS OF AIRCRAFT

Piston Turbine/Rotor/Other

AIR CARRIER ENPLANEMENTS

REGIONAL/COMMUTER 

PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEET GENERAL AVIATION FLEET
 

16

IV. LONG-RANGE WORKLOAD MEASURE FORECASTS

Forecasts of FAA workload measures by user groups for 2003 and 5-year increments between 

2003 and 2030 are provided in Table 2, page 19. A discussion of the forecasts follows in the 

paragraphs below. 

A. Towered Operations

At the end of FY 2002 the number of FAA towers totaled 266, down from 402 in 1994. During 

this same period of time, the number of FAA contract towers has increased from 33 to 217. An 

additional 7 contract towers are expected to be added in 2003, bringing the total number of 

contract towers to 224. Given the uncertainty about current and future year conversions and 

additions, the forecasts presented in this document are combined forecasts independent of the 

distinction between FAA and contract tower status. 

Aircraft operations at combined FAA and contract towered airports are forecast to total 

79.1 million in 2014 and 103.9 million in 2030--an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent 

over the 28-year forecast period. Most of the growth is expected to come in commercial activity, 

which is projected to grow 2.5 percent annually during the immediate forecast period and 

2.4 percent annually during the extended forecast period. The slower growth in commercial 

activity relative to enplanements (3.9 and 3.4 percent during the immediate and extended 

forecast periods) is due to a combination of continued high load factors, larger aircraft, and 

longer passenger trip lengths.

Although regional/commuter enplanements increase at a faster rate than the larger air carriers 

over the 28-year forecast period (4.4 percent compared to 3.5 percent), commuter/air taxi 

operations increase just slightly faster than air carrier operations (2.5 percent compared to 

2.4 percent). The commuter/air taxi activity growth is largely due to the large numbers of the 

regional jet aircraft that are expected to enter the regional/commuter fleet over the forecast 

period. As such, regional/commuter average aircraft size, load factors, and passenger trip 

lengths all increase at significantly faster rates than do those of the larger air carriers. 

General aviation activity, which accounted for 57.9 percent of combined tower activity in 2002, 

grows at a considerably slower pace relative to commercial activity over the 28-year forecast 

period—1.3 percent, for both the immediate and extended forecast periods. In the year 2030, 

general aviation is expected to account for 51.6 percent of combined tower activity. Military 

activity is projected to remain constant at the 3.1 million operations forecasted for 2004 through 

the balance of the immediate and the extended forecast periods. 
 

17

B. Instrument Operations

Instrument operations at combined FAA and contract towered airports are forecast to total 

61.9 million in 2014 and 83.2 million in 2030, an average annual growth rate of 1.9 percent 

during both the immediate and extended forecast periods. Most of the growth is expected to 

come from commercial activity, which is projected to grow 2.5 percent annually during the 

immediate and 2.4 percent annually during the extended forecast period. Air carrier instrument 

activity is forecast to grow 2.2 percent annually during the immediate forecast period and 

2.5 percent during the extended forecast period. Commuter/air taxi activity is forecast to 

increase at a 2.8 percent annual rate during the immediate forecast period and 2.2 percent 

annually over the extended forecast period. 

General aviation activity is projected to increase at a slower pace, averaging 1.4 percent through 

the immediate forecast period and 1.3 percent during the extended forecast period. Military 

activity is forecast to remain constant at the 3.6 million operations recorded in 2003. 

Commercial activity is expected to increase from 53.1 percent of total instrument activity at 

combined FAA and contract towers in 2002 to 61.6 percent by the year 2030. 

C. ARTCC Aircraft Handled

The number of aircraft handled at FAA en route traffic control centers is forecast to reach 

55.4 million in 2014 and 77.1 million in 2030, an average growth rate of 2.0 percent for the 

immediate forecast period and 2.1 percent over extended time period. Most of the growth occurs 

in the number of commercial aircraft handled, which increases by 2.4 percent annually during 

both of the two forecast periods. The number of air carrier aircraft handled increases by an average annual rate of 2.4 percent over the 28-year forecast period—or 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent, 

respectively, over the immediate and extended time periods. The number of commuter/air taxi 

aircraft handled is forecast to increase by 2.8 percent annually during the immediate forecast 

period and 2.2 percent over the extended forecast period—averaging 2.5 percent over the entire 

28-year period. 

The number of general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en route centers increases at a slower 

rate over the two forecast periods, 1.4 and 1.3 percent annually during the respective forecast 

periods. The number of military aircraft handled is forecast to remain constant at the 3.9 million 

recorded in 2002 through 2030. 

By the end of the 28-year forecast period, commercial activity is expected to account for 

79.6 percent of the total center activity, up from 72.3 percent in 2002. 
 

18

D. Flight Services

The number of services provided by FAA flight service stations is forecast to total 28.6 million 

in 2014 and 28.4 million in 2030, an annual decline of 0.1 percent over the 28-year forecast 

period. The projected decline in services provided by FAA flight service stations reflects the 

greater use of automated and alternative sources for flight services that are not provided directly 

by FAA flight service stations specialist. 

The average annual growth rates for each of the three flight service categories for the immediate 

and extended forecast periods are: flight plans originated: up 0.0 and 0.4 percent; pilot briefs 

down 0.3 and 0.2 percent; and number of aircraft contacted; down 0.8 percent and 1.0 percent for 

the two forecast periods. 

Automated services provided through the Direct User Access Terminal System (DUATS) are 

forecast to grow throughout the forecast periods. DUATS services are projected to increase to 

19.6 million in 2014 and to 24.9 mil-lion in 2030, a 1.5 percent annual growth rate for both 

forecast periods. During the 28-year period, the combined FSS and DUATS services are forecast 

to increase at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent. 

These forecasts of FSS and DUATS services assume that there will be no change in the current 

definitions of flight service measures or any change in the manner in which they are delivered to 

the general aviation pilot. There is, however, significant uncertainty concerning the impact of 

technology on the set of flight services to be provided by the FAA in the future. As more 

specific information becomes known about the future flight service system the forecasts will be 

adjusted accordingly. 
 

19

 TABLE 3

 LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

 FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES

(In Millions)

Actual March 2003 Forecast Long Range Forecast

2002 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tower Operations* 

Total 64.9 64.9 67.9 74.0 80.6 87.4 95.2 103.9

 Itinerant 47.2 47.2 49.7 54.7 60.1 65.7 72.2 79.5

 Air Carrier 13.2 12.9 13.7 15.4 17.6 19.7 22.4 25.5 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 11.0 11.3 12.2 14.0 15.6 17.4 19.5 21.7 

 General Aviation 21.4 21.8 22.1 23.7 25.3 27.0 28.8 30.7 

 Military 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 

Local 17.6 17.7 18.2 19.3 20.4 21.7 23.0 24.5

 General Aviation 16.2 16.2 16.7 17.8 18.9 20.2 21.5 23.0 

 Military 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 

 

 

 

Instrument Operations *

Total 49.6 49.3 51.9 57.3 63.2 68.9 75.7 83.2

 Air Carrier 14.4 14.1 15.0 16.8 19.2 21.5 24.4 27.7 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 11.9 12.2 13.2 15.2 16.9 18.9 21.1 23.5 

 General Aviation 19.7 19.4 20.1 21.8 23.4 25.0 26.6 28.4 

 Military 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 

 

ARTCC Aircraft Handled

Total 43.7 43.4 45.8 50.8 56.6 62.3 69.3 77.1

 Air Carrier 22.8 22.4 23.7 26.6 30.5 34.1 38.7 44.0 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 8.8 9.0 9.8 11.2 12.5 13.9 15.6 17.4 

 General Aviation 8.2 8.1 8.4 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.1 11.8 

 Military 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 

 

FSS Flight Services

Total 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4

 Pilot Briefs 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 

 Flight Plans Filed 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 

 Aircraft Contacts 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2 5 2.4 2.3 

DUATS Services 16.5 16.4 17.1 18.5 19.9 21.5 23.1 24.9

 

* Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers. 

 Note: Totals may not add due to independent rounding.
 

20

FAA WORKLOAD FORECASTS

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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FLIGHT PLANS PILOT BRIEFS CONTACTS

TOWERED OPERATIONS INSTRUMENT OPERATIONS

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED FLIGHT SERVICES