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ZIMBABWE 

Food Security Update 

February 2006 

ALERT STATUS: 

NO ALERT 

WATCH 

WARNING 

EMERGENCY 

CONTENTS 

Summaries and Calendar .....................1 

Cost of Living Continues to Rise ........... 2 

Maize Deficit Projected .........................3 

Summary and Implications 

The food security situation throughout Zimbabwe remained precarious during 

January and February 2006. The availability of staple cereals for purchase was 

erratic and grossly inadequate throughout the country. Maize was only 

occasionally available on markets either as grain or flour in both rural and urban centers. Extremely high maize prices 

and the escalating cost of living continue to make it difficult for poor households to purchase sufficient quantities of staple 

cereals, complementary foods and other basic household goods. 

However, food assistance programs in nearly all rural districts of Zimbabwe helped about 52 percent of the rural 

population access adequate cereals they would otherwise have failed to get on their own. Also, wild foods such as 

mushrooms and edible worms did not only make a marked contribution to many rural households’ food needs in January 

and February, but also presented households with opportunities for earning cash income they could use to purchase other 

foods and non-food household necessities. This is very important given that income generating opportunities have 

continued to dwindle in step with the economic decline Zimbabwe is experiencing. General food availability will 

improve further with the green harvest (okra, pumpkins, groundnuts, squashes and maize) that began in late February 

2006. 

Preliminary indications reveal that this year’s maize production will be greater than last year’s 550,000 MT but well 

below the 1990’s average, and below national consumption requirements estimated at between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000 

MT for 2006. Producers of staple cereals faced numerous challenges that include critical shortages of fuel and fertilizers 

and excessive rainfall that leached soil nutrients in many places. Labor shortages were common among the newly 

resettled commercial farmers and this, together with the excessive rainfall, hampered adequate and timely weeding. 

Seasonal Calendar 

Current Hazard Summary 

Shortage and high price of maize. 

High annual inflation - measured in January 2006 at 613 percent - which has further eroded purchasing power. 

Projected maize deficit for 2006/07 consumption year. 

Food Security Summary 

Sub-national maize availability remains tight despite improvements at the national level 

Commercial and food aid maize imports from South Africa to Zimbabwe continued in January and February 2006. 

According to the South African Grain Information Services (SAGIS), imports averaged about 19,670 MT per week from 

April 1, 2005 to February 10, 2006; total cumulative maize imports during this period were about 868,980 MT. As of 

February 10, 2006 the remaining maize gap for the 2005/06 consumption year was about 197,000 MT (Figure 1). If the 

current rate of maize importation is maintained, an end of the consumption year a gap of about 40,000 MT is expected. 

FEWS NET/Zimbabwe 

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Tel: 263 4 744878 

Fax: 263 4 744878 
ZIMBABWE : FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 

Despite considerable maize imports, the scarcity of maize and maize meal 

has intensified significantly in January and February 2006 compared to 

what it was in December 2005 throughout all rural districts of the country, 

as households run out of food and become increasingly dependent on the 

market for their food supply. In January and February, Grain Marketing 

Board (GMB) maize distributions were significantly reduced and maize 

meal supplies from private millers were more erratic. The households in 

the southern districts of Matebeleland South were among the populations 

that experienced the most severe maize meal shortages in the country 

during the month of January. For unknown reasons, GMB maize grain 

supplies to millers in Bulawayo and the neighboring towns and services 

centers were disrupted. The rural districts in the north-central parts of the 

country, which have been consistently reporting local maize grain sales 

since the 2004/05 harvest, also reported significant reductions in maize 

availability in January and February. Ongoing WFP and C-SAFE food aid 

programs were the only dependable source of maize for about 52 percent 

of the rural population in January. 

Mushrooms and mangoes, which contributed substantially to both 

household food and cash income in December and early January, went out of season in mid January. Greatly reduced 

quantities of mushrooms and mangoes could, however, still be found in some districts of Masvingo, Midlands and 

Matebeleland North provinces. For their own consumption and sale, households in a few isolated areas in the 

Mashonaland provinces and in Gokwe District started their green harvest (okra, pumpkins, groundnuts, squashes and 

maize) in early February. The number of households benefiting from the green harvest will increase drastically from early 

March. Mopani worms emerged as expected in December and January 2006 in the southern areas of Gwanda, Kezi and 

Mwenezi districts. Many households in these areas harvested mopani worms for consumption and sale, and earned 

substantial cash income for the purchase of maize meal. 

Figure 1: National level maize availability, 

February 10, 2006 

-

200,000 

400,000 

600,000 

800,000 

1,000,000 

1,200,000 

1,400,000 

1,600,000 

1,800,000 

2,000,000 

MT 

Production Imports Remaining Gap 

Source: SAGIS and Ministry of Finance-Zimbabwe 

Figure 2: Annual rate of inflation compared to the minimum wage rate of a 

low-income earner, indexed on the Food Poverty Line 

200 

250 

300 

350 

400 

450 

500 

550 

600 

650 

Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-05 

Annual Inflation Rate(%) 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

Wage Rate as Percentage of househol FPL 

Annual Inflation 

Industral Wage Rate as % Food Poverty Datum 

Source: CSO, ZCTU 

Cost of Living Continues to Rise 

Since March 2005, the annual rate of 

inflation measured by the Central 

Statistical Office (CSO) increased by 

about 490 percentage points to 613.2 

percent in January 2006. This inflation 

rate is just 9.6 percentage points below the 

all time peak of 622.8 percent reached in 

January 2004. Month on month inflation 

averaged 25 percentage points from July 

2005 to January 2006. In January 2006, 

the price of maize grain in Harare was 

over 1,860 percent higher than it was a 

year ago and that of bread was over 2,100 

percent higher. All price increases were 

substantially above the annual rate of 

inflation for the same period. This trend is 

consistent for all basic commodities. 

Consequently the cost of living continues 

to rise beyond the reach of many poor 

households. The minimum expenditure 

for a household of five that enables each 

member to consume at least 2,100 

kilocalories per day, the food poverty datum line (FPL), continued to exceed income levels for poor households. In July 

2005 the commercial sector minimum monthly wage, a proxy for poor urban households’ income levels, could cover only 

about 80 percent of the FPL. In December 2005 the commercial sector wage could only cover about 44 percent of the 

2 
ZIMBABWE : FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 

FPL. The situation improved a bit with wage rate increases that were completed in January 2006, but the monthly wage 

rate could then only cover 64 percent of the FPL (Figure 2). Since current inflationary pressures are forecasted to remain 

high in the near future, the prospect of a fall in the cost of living is highly unlikely. 

The Reserve Bank Governor projected the annual inflation rate to peak at 800 percent in March 2006 and to fall to around 

200 percent by the end of the year. The view was predicated on the assumption that the 2005/06 agricultural harvest will 

be very good. On the contrary, independent economists believe the annual inflation rate is likely to be well above the 800 

percent mark around March and April 2006, because they do not anticipant a revival of the economy sufficient enough to 

slow down the high inflationary pressures in the near future. 

Maize Deficit Projected for the 2006/07 Consumption Year 

The 2005/06 rainfall season was normal to above normal for the 

greater part of the country, save for the central parts of 

Manicaland Province and the southern parts of Masvingo and 

Matebeleland South provinces. The January-February dry spell 

in Manicaland (the upper red circle) and southern parts of 

Masvingo and Matebeleland South provinces (the bottom red 

circle) adversely affected crop yields in these areas (Figure 3). 

Water logging was a problem in isolated parts of the regions that 

received above-normal rainfall. Leaching of both inherent soil 

fertility and artificially applied fertilizers was highly prevalent 

and most evident in areas with sandy soils of granite origin, 

which are common in most communal areas. Cereal crops 

planted in such soils, in particular maize, will have poor to no 

yields at all in the current season. The highest yields will be 

found in loamy, heavier soils with good drainage. Even 

unfertilized lands with such soils had some good crops around 

mid-February 2006. Such soils are not confined to one 

geographic area but are found in varying extents throughout the 

country. Consequently, areas of good harvest will be more 

diffused throughout the country than in the past years when 

rainfall was poor. 

Figure 3: Crop Water Requirements for February 21, 

2006, projected to end of season 

Source: USGS 

It is against this background that the preliminary indications of maize production this year are for improved maize 

production compared to last year’s estimate of 550,000 MT1

, but well below the 1990’s average, and well below national 

consumption requirements. Zimbabwe’s 2006 annual maize requirements for human consumption are estimated 

at 1,420,000 MT based on the HIV/AIDS adjusted population projection of 11,830,000 people2

. Maize 

requirements for animal feeds, other industrial processes and provisions for losses collectively estimated at 

between 200,000 and 300,000 MT put the total 2006 national requirements at between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000 

MT. 

While the tobacco production prospects are poor, the cotton production estimates coming from the cotton industry are 

very positive. Preliminary estimates of cotton production are at 420,000 MT, about 14 percent more than last season’s 

cotton production. The 1990s average cotton production was about 225,000 MT/year. Since the majority of cotton 

growers are in the communal and resettlement farming areas, income from the crop is likely to improve cash incomes in 

these farming areas. Therefore if food is available on the market at reasonable prices, a significant number of households 

will have the means of purchasing it. 

Limited water and grazing in parts of Manicaland, Matabeleland South and Masvingo provinces (the red circles in the 

figure 3) is threatening livestock production. Livestock plays a very important role in the livelihoods of the majority of 

households in these areas, and a threat to livestock production easily translates to increased vulnerability of the population 

to food insecurity. 

1

 USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 

2

Zimbabwe Central Statistical Office Population Census Office 

3