# Kenya

Above average terms of trade cushioning households into the lean season

                                  - The flood-affected riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties are currently experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes which are anticipated to persist through January.  Despite an end to most flood response humanitarian assistance programs, affected households continue to gradually recover from the severe flooding in April and May, supported by seasonal sale of livestock and fruits. A large proportion of households that were previously in IDP camps have returned to their homes but remain food insecure as they lack household food stocks and are relying on both consumption and livelihood based coping strategies to meet minimum food requirements.
                                  - Across pastoral areas, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through January . Vegetation conditions continue to improve and currently average to above average but declining seasonally. Water availability remains average except in Turkana, Garissa, and Wajir where return trekking distances to both human and livestock sources are above the five-year averages. In areas of Turkana and Masabit counties, which were the worst affected by the recent drought and still recovering, households are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, which are expected to continue through January. The goat-to-maize terms of trade are 8 to 83 percent above the five-year averages but twice the averages in Isiolo and Mandera, supporting above-average household food access despite being constrained by low livestock herd sizes. 
                                  - Across marginal agricultural areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through January as the current long rains harvests, though below average, is driving short-term below-average market prices of staple foods, supporting household food availability and access.  Due to the below-average crop harvests, households are facing below-average income from both crop sales and casual wage labor. Households in these areas are likely to face constrained food access as household food stocks are depleted, and they revert to sourcing of high-priced staple foods from markets.
                                  - According to  **global forecasts** , the March to August rains in unimodal areas of Kenya are likely to be average.  The forecasts also indicate that La Niña is the most likely state by October. The October to December short rains season is most likely to have below-average rainfall, ranging from 45 – 75 percent of the average in northern and northeastern Kenya, and 75 – 90 percent of the average in southern and coastal areas. 
                                  - In July, maize prices ranged from average to around 30 percent below the five-year averages supported by short rains harvests, 2023 long rains unimodal harvests, and above-average cross-border imports from Tanzania and Uganda.  In contrast, prices were above average in pastoral markets due to high demand and high marketing costs.  Dry bean prices ranged from average to 10 percent below average due to available local harvests and cross-border imports from Tanzania and Ethiopia.  However, prices in Kisumu, Nairobi, Makueni and Kitui counties were above the five-year averages due to below-average national production driven by erratic rainfall and persistent high national demand. 

Recent improvements in food security set to cushion poor households over the lean period

Despite flooding, above-average long rains support ongoing drought recovery

Varied rainfall impacts in pastoral and cropping areas as long rains come to an end

Kenya Price Bulletin

Kenya Price Bulletin

Kenya Price Bulletin

Recent improvements in food security set to cushion poor households over the lean period

Despite flooding, above-average long rains support ongoing drought recovery

Varied rainfall impacts in pastoral and cropping areas as long rains come to an end

Kenya Price Bulletin

Kenya Price Bulletin

Kenya Price Bulletin

Kenya Acute Food Insecurity Classification (August 2024 - January 2025)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (August 2024 - September 2024) and medium term (October 2024 - January 2025) periods.

Kenya Acute Food Insecurity Classification (July 2024 - January 2025)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (July 2024 - September 2024) and medium term (October 2024 - January 2025) periods.

Kenya Acute Food Insecurity Classification (June 2024 - January 2025)

Current (June 2024) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (June 2024 - September 2024) and medium term (October 2024 - January 2025) periods.

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.