ED 

1 

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION 

SECRETARY 

May 28, 2014 

Mr. Shawn Garvin 

Regional Administrator 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region III 

1650 Arch Street (Mail Code: 3RAOO) 

Philadelphia, P A 19103 -2029 

.~~u1 

Dear Mr. Garvin: j/.r 

Enclosed for your approval is a revision to the Pennsylvania State Implementation Plan (SIP) to 

update the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (MVEBs) in the "Maintenance Plan and Base Year 

Inventory for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area" 

(Maintenance Plan). In addition, a General Conformity Budget for the construction emissions of 

the Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant is included in the revision. The Maintenance Plan was 

developed according to Section 175A of the Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C.A. §7505a). This 

Maintenance Plan revision was developed in accordance with the U. S. Environmental Protection 

Agency's (EPA) April 2012 guidance document titled, Policy Guidance on the Use of 

MOVES2010 and Subsequent Minor Revisionsfor State Implementation Plan Development, 

Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes. The Commonwealth followed all of the 

applicable procedural requirements of the Commonwealth's laws and constitution in conducting 

and completing the adoption/issuance of the SIP revision. 

The Commonwealth has completed its public participation process for this SIP revision. The 

Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) scheduled a public hearing to occur on the final 

day of the 30-day public comment period, which ended October 18,2012, but no persons 

expressed interest in presenting testimony or attending before the specified deadline. Therefore, 

DEP cancelled the hearing. The DEP received 15 comments from four commentators on the 

proposed SIP revision. 

The following documents are enclosed for your approval: 

1. The Maintenance Plan revision, which includes an MVEB for the purposes of 

transportation conformity; and an emissions budget for the construction emissions for the 

Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant for the purposes of General Conformity; 

2. A Comment-Response Document; 

3. Certification of public participation activities; 

4. A technical support document for the Maintenance Plan revision; and 

5. Appendix C, "Technical Support Document, Mobile Source Highway Emissions 

Inventory," which replaces the Appendix C of the same title in the approved Maintenance 

Plan. . 

Rachel Carson State Office Building I P.O. Box 2063 I Harrisburg, PA 17105-2063 

717.787.2814 Printed on Recycled Paper www.depweb.state.pa.us 
Mr. Shawn Garvin -2- May 28, 2014 

A paper copy and a disc containing a searchable PDF copy of the revised Maintenance Plan are 

enclosed. I certify that the electronic file is an exact duplicate of the hard copy. 

The EPA redesignated the ScrantonlWilkes-Barre Area to attai~ent on November 19, 2007 

(72 FR 64948). In that action, EPA approved all of the components of the ScrantonlWilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan, including the MVEBs (72 FR 64948). The EPA approved a 

revision to the Maintenance Plan's 2009 and 2018 MVEBs on August 11,2009 (74 FR 40083). 

The revision established MVEBs for each Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) and Rural 

Planning Organization (RPO) in the nonattainment area (74 FR 40083). This Maintenance Plan 

( revision currently being submitted does not alter the MVEBs for VOC from those approved in 

the August 11, 2009, action. 

As you know, the EPA updated the model that estimates highway vehicle emissions. The new 

model, the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES), better estimates emissions from 

highway vehicles, but MOVES estimates much higher emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), 

and in some cases, volatile organic compounds (VOC), than the Mobile6.2 model used to derive 

the MVEBs in the approved Scranton Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Plan. The Scranton WilkesBarre Area MPO, the Northeastern Pennsylvanian Alliance MPO, and the Northern Tier RPO, 

which are responsible for transportation planning in the ScrantonlWilkes-Barre Area, use those 

approved MVEBs to satisfy transportation conformity requirements. The MPOs and RPO are 

required to use the most up-to-date version of MOVES for all new transportation planning that 

begins after March 2,2013. Approval of the updated MVEBs in the Commonwealth's SIP will 

allow the MPOs and RPO to compare similarly generated emissions used in transportation 

improvement plans and the MVEBs, which will allow transportation projects to go forward in a 

timely manner. 

If you have any questions or need additional information, please contact Joyce E. Epps, Director 

of the Bureau of Air Quality, by email atjeepps@pa.gov or by phone at 717.787.9702. 

Sincerely, 

E. Christopher Abruzzo 

Secretary 

Enclosures 
COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA INVOICE NO. STD-521 REV 06-2010 

PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION AND INVOICE 

PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION (To be completed by agency): ,(1" 3(, j /.1 /; 

TO: (NAME AND ADDRESS Of NEWSPAPER) . FEDERAL I.D. NOJSOC. SEC. NO FROM: (NAME AND ADDRESS OF AGENCy) AGENCY TELEPHONE NO 

Scranton Times-Tribune 24-0717470 Alex Haas 717-787-9495 

149 Penn Avenue PA DEP- BAO 

Scranton, PA 18503 400 Market Street H~rrit;hllrn PA 171()1 0 

HEREWITH IS ENCLOSED COPY FOR PUBLICATION OF ADVERTISEMENT FOR PROPOSALS TO 

L EMPLOY C PURCHASE ['j CONTRACT [J SELL 

IlYPE OF AO[] 

CLASSIFIED ~ LEGAL NOTICE 

PUBLISH ADVERTISEMENT (NO. OF TIMES) I MAXIMUM NO. OF LINES DATE I ORDER NO. 

1x Only October 16, 2013 

DATES OF INSERTION SICJ.N,TURE FORj\G~NCJ 

·(("it ...... October 26, 2013 A .,-f{.(~l:. "'c, ' '" i.·{ C Vk: ' .. ' 

You, as vendor, are authorized to publish thiS advertisement In your newspaper, subject to the terms of thiS order, as follows: 

Advertisement to be published in regular advertising columns, no position specified; caption of two lines and signature to be in 

capitals and subject matter and title of officer to be set solid in type regularly used by your newspaper for public (legal) notice 

advertising; charge to be made at the rate charged to and paid by commercial advertisers for matter similarly set and occupying 

similar space; advertisement to be run in the editions specified above. Vendor agrees that, in the performance of any contract 

awarded to it hereunder, said vendor wi!1 not discriminate against any employee or other persons on account of race, co!or, sex, 

religious creed, ancestry, age or national origin and that the Commonwealth, upon receipt of satisfactory evidence of such discrimination, shall have the right to cancel said contract. Return this copy at once if you will not accept this advertisement under 

the terms set forth. 

Return original and two copies (signed by the editor or publisher) to the agency listed above. Proof of advertising 

in the form of a tear sheet must be stapled to original and copies. Original must be notarized. 

Commonwealth to be billed only for actual number of printed lines published. 

SAP FUND COST CENTER GENERAL LEDGER ACCOUNT CODE % 

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liP V 16414000000 

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" .. (> be completed by publisher)' 

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-

I;:'l_.~. I (; I.b ! j 1 {iA, I. < ' / IJ D (j, {A;" 

2nd Ad i~ ,\ /0 .j. f~ ~-\ !:In 

3rd Ad 

GRAND TOTAL-+ 

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 

C t f ' ' ) ,; "j' " 'l '., '/ ounyo ! f\!<~(;;i.,fjj~ftJ..!!./iJj> 

Before me, the subscriber, a Notary Public in and for said County, personally came Ii"~ '1\ iJl;..i C i. ! { (,,! IA 

who being duly .sworn, doth depose and say that he is* l.c!~"(_'·L(ll..{--"" ·'41",'C"1...1.-:;,..,I,,,(',;-' -,;-i-,' 1_' ,,--" "'.i'...w.,,-'----c:---------____ _ 

the i , i', :,);' ,i i'i! ;.'. I a general newspaper published at ,,/"":"'.1"":'1"" ...._' ",t"",,,,,! fLjli-,I ... I-I-/",lJ...1 c!'-'{~,-;-__ -:-__ -....._:-___ _ 

that the advertisement, of which tearsheet is attached hereto, was published in the regular advertising columns of said newspap' 

in the editions of said newspaper, in all respects as ordered and invoiced above; and that the Commonwealth is not charg' 

therefor at a rate higher than is charged any ordinary advertiser for a similar amount of matter occupying similar space and set ir 

similar matter, in said newspaper. 

Sworn and subscribed before me this 2;:- i' 4 

My commission expires -;;;......~. /9;. ';)0/2 

day of 9-~",.,t..b""" Au 

NOTARY 

~ 

PUBLIC 

20 1"2 

*This affidavit must be made by the Owner, Publisher, or the designated agent of the owner or publisher. 

COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA 

Notarial Seal 

Joseph O. Strubeck, Notary Public 

City of Scranton, lackawannil County 

My Commission Expires Aug. 19, 2017 

MENSER. P£HHS'I'lVANIA ASSOClAnO~ OF NOTARIES 
o.}- U Z01:? 

• 

LEGAL NOTiCE 

Pro~ad RevisJon to the Snite 

lmpJe111entation Plan for the 

Motor Vehi.cle. Emissions Budgets , in the- Scrantoo,wilkes--Sarre 

199'7 Eight-Hour Ozone 

Maintenance Area; 

public Hearing 

The Pennsylvania Department of Envi~ 

(onmentat Protection (Department) is 

revising the motor vehlele emissions 

budgets for the ScrantonlWHkes-Barre 

1997 EIght-Hour 'Ozone Maintenance 

Area. The revised budgets, Once ap~ 

proved by the U,S, Environmental Protect(on AgBncy (EPA}, will allow lOcal 

transportation plannIng agencies to 

better compare highway vehIcle emissions In transportation plans'wlth mo- tor vehicle emission budgets in the 

State ImplementatiOn Plan (SIP}, The 

SIP will' 'now include highway emissions estimated using the same com· puter model that locar pJanning agen- cies ate re~uired to usa for developing their transportation Plans. 

The EPA developed a new computer model, the Motor Vehicle ~missions 

Simulator (MOVES), which estlmatas 

emissiqns from highway vehicles more accurata[y. The Department used 'the 

formet EPA-apProved model, MonileS, 

for estlmetlng highway vehicles emissions in the approved maintenance 

plan for the ScrantonLWllkes-6arre 

Area. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen and, in some casaSt volatile organic compounds are estimated to be at 

higher levels by the MOVES model 

than the levels app'roved by EPA In the 

ScrantonlWHkes Barre Maintenance 

Plan. The Transportation Conformity regulation requires that emissions 

from updated local transportation improvement plans do not exceed the 

motor vehfcle emissions budget irtthe 

area's approved, appifcable SlP, By us- ing the same model in transportation plannin~ and the SIP, a more realistic 

compenson betwee-n the two will re- sult, which wi!! offer less chance of 

transportation projects being delayed, 

The Department IS also includIng, pro- jected emissions from Mat'eellus Shale 

activity that wer~"n ... at included in the 

prevIously ap~ed SIP revision. 

These: amissio-ng"fesutt tram drUUng 

and' compressor st~tion activl~. In act: 

dltlon, the E)epa'rtmerlt is 'including emissions that wHi be produced from 

bUilding the proposed Bel! Bend Nuclear Power Plant in order for that proi~ct to satIsfy General Conformity requirements. 

This proposal IS available on the De-: 

pertment's website at www,depweb, state,pa.us or through the'contact per~ 

SOns listed below, 

The Department is seeking public com~ 

ment on updated emissicns in this 

proposed SIP revision, which'include 

chang,es made to the motor vehicle 

emiSSions budget and inclusion of 

emissions from Marcellus Shale activity, and building ot the prOposed Bell 

Bend Nudear Power Plant in the 

ScrantonlWHkes-Barre 1997 Eight-Hour OZone Maintenance Plan, The Depart~ 

ment wfll hold a public hearing to re- ceive comments on the proposal on December 4, 2013, at l:QOp.m. in 

Susquehanna Room A at the Pennsyl- vania De~artment of Environmental 

Protection s: Northeast Regional Office, 

2 Public SQuare, Wilkes·Barre, PA, 

Persons wishing to present testimony 

at the hearing shOUld contact Alex 

Haas. p,o, Box 8:468, Harrisburg PA 

17105, {7171 187-9495 or alehaas@pa, 

gov to reserve a time. If, by November 

27, 2Q13, na petaon has requested to testify at the hearing, the hearing will 

be cancei!ed, If, the hearing is can- celled" the Departmem wl1I notffy the 

pUbUc on tha Bureau of Air Quallty webpage, http://www.dep.state.pa.ust dep/daputate.lalrwaste/aQ/default.htm, 

Witnesses should keep testimany 10 

ten minutes ,and should provide two 

written. copies of their statement at the 

hearing. 

Persons with a disability who Wish to 

attend the hearing and require an aux~ 

iUary aid, service at other accommodation to participate in the proceeding should contact Alex Haas at (717) 187· 

9495 or alehaas@.QI!,gov. TOO users may contact the AT&T Relay Service at 

(800) 654-5984 to discuss how the Departmentcan best accommodate their 

needs, 

The Departm:snt mUst rscelve com· ments no leter than December 4, 2013. 

Written comments should be sent to 

the attention of Klrit Oa[al, Chtef, DIvision of Air Resource Management, Bu- reau of Air Quality, P,O. Box 8468, Harrisburg, PA 17106-8468, or kdalal@pa. gOY, USe "ScrantonIWUkes·Sarre MVEB 

Revisions" in the subject Une, 

E( Christophel'- Abrl.tlto 

Acting Secretary 

Department of 

Environmental Protection 

OCT 3 0 2013 

Air Resource t"'anagemeot 

Division 
COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA 

8T0-521 RE.V. C6.2010 

PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION AND INVOICE 

PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION (To be completed by agency): 

INVOICE NO. 

TO:INAMEAN"DADDAES50FNEWSFA~AAJ 1 FEDERAL I D NO /sac SEC NO FROM: (NAMEANDADDRES$ OF AGENOy) AGENCY I.. TELEPHONE NO. 

ri~~~~:~:i~i;~:e~eader ;? 1 ~!11o;;irt~~--" :~:~~:::~~reet .. 717-787-9495 

Wlikes-Barre,PA 18711-0250.. H~rri~hnrn PA 17101 ... 

HEREV./lTH IS ENCLOSED COpy FOR PUBLICATION OF ADVERTISEMENT FOR PROPOSALS TO I TYPE OF AD 

C EMPLOY 0 PURCHASE 0 CONTRACT D SELL D CLASSIFIED JZl LEGAl.. NOT1CE 

?UBUSH ADVERTISEMENT (NO. OF TIMES) I. MAXIMUM NO, OFLlNE8 DATE I ORDER 1'.0. 

1x Only October 16,2013 

DATES OF INSERTION SI~~.n;JRE ... FORAGfNpy / /n / /7 

October 26, 2013 i:l/i!.,.. (" lit, (Vi A.·;·.,; 

You, as vendor, are authorized to publish thiS advertisement in your newspaper, subject to the terms of thiS order, as follows: 

Advertisement to be published in regular advertising columns, no position specified; caption of two lines and signature to be in 

capitals and subject matter and litle of officer to be set solid in type regularly used by your newspaper for public (legal) notice 

advertising; charge to be made at the rate charged to and paid by commercial advertisers for matter similarly set and occupying 

similar space; advertisement to be run in the editions specified above. Vendor agrees that, in the performance of any contract 

awarded to it hereunder, said vendor will not discriminate against any employee or other persons on account of race, color, sex, 

religious creed, ancestry, age or national origin and that the Commonwealth, upon receipt of satisfactory evidence of such discrimination, shall have the right to cancel said contract, Return this copy at once if you will not accept this advertisement under 

the terms set forth. 

Return original and two caples (signed by the editor or publisher) to the agency listed above. Proof of advertising 

in the form of a tear sheet must be stapled to original and copies. Original must be notarized. 

Commonwealth to be billed only for actual number of printed lines published. 

SAP FUND , I COST CENTER GENERAL LEDGER ACCOUNT CODE % 

7027313000 3522710000 6343200 _ ... _. - 110 V16414000000 

INVOICE (To be completed by publJsher)' -

DATE OF INSERTioN ACTUAL NO. OF PRINTED liNES COST Pr:.R LINE TOTALANtGUNT 

1st Ad Il),foher ,:(t ~n(? i Iq{ (Lq'i 5'zL 

2nd Ad Ifll'1 ~ I1Jtl~f"( (!e:::. / '-/.-0 () 1,-/ 

3rd Ad / 

4 /' 

GRAND TOTAL ~ 'fJ . 6 1'5 . / -' 

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 

County of L y 1. er 11 C. 

Before me, the subscriber, a Notary Public in and for said County, personally came L l'r\dq B'{ r--ne3 

who~g duly sworn, doth depose and say that he is* C. I" $ s ,-bed £ { e \. ih'l'- It.. 

I o 

t)u 

L D 

the II (ll eo" b?, Lev a general newspaper published at jj;:' k "'-? ,- jJc;, ,r;; t?4= 73 7// 

that the advertisement, of which tearsheet is attached hereto, was published in the regular advertising columns of said newspapl 

in the editions of said newspaper, in all respects as ordered and invoiced above; and that the Commonwealth is not charg' 

therefor at a rate higher than is charged any ordinary advertiser for a similar amount of maller occupying similar space and set ir 

similar matter, in said newspaper. % 

Sworn '7 

day of -.I'-~'-IE'-...\W,-¥,eL{,I--~-- 20 1-; 

*Tn is affidavit must be made by the O';mer, P bUsher, or the designated agent of the owner or publisher. 

SIGNATURE OF AFFiANT 

COMMONWEALTH Of PENNSYLVANiA 

Notarial Seal 

Angela Coscia, Notary Public 

CIty of Wilkes·Barre, Luzerne County 

My Commission Expires Feb. }.:!L~~- '-~-
Proof of Publication 

THE TIMES LEADER 

(Under Act of No. 587, approved May 16, 1929) 

STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA, 

COUNTY OF LUZERNE 55: 

:-"''7-'--/-I.''-!''''--''''-+!:.::::.'*"'c.:",L---::-----:---:---:-:----:--' be i ng duly sw 0 rn accord i n g 

to law, depose and says that he/she is the bookkeeper of The Times 

Leader, a daily newspaper published in the City of Wilkes-Barre, County 

and State aforesaid, by the Wilkes-Barre Publishing Company, Inc., that 

said The Times Leader was established in 1939, and that the printed notice 

or publication hereto attached is exactly as printed in the regular edition of 

The Times Leader on the following date(s): 

Affiant further deposes and says that The Time Leader is a daily newspaper 

of general circulation and that neither the affiant nor The Times Leader is 

interested in the subject matter of the aforesaid notice of advertisement, 

and that all allegations in the foregoing statement as to time, place and 

character of publication are true. L-~') 

'-- ~/ ~ C7/t2'Ji!(L /~ ~e~,J 

Copy of Notice . 

or Publication 

swornr~efore.me this 2fl day 

( 1 7rL of <:::Y A':t~~ , 2~.;;',. 

~~g/ ~~ 
a~~7"~l~~:~i:r;S~!ate lmp!ementfilioh PI"," for lIIe Motor Vehicle E"'i",'lotl.EMiget$·j~1 0, loo? Eight,l;!!w.o.;one Maint<>nance Area; 

P"bllctiearing 

DeDa,1mentis also Including projected emissions from Marcellus Shale activity,that were 

Ii~~;~;~ra, in' the previously approved SIP revision. These emissions result from drilling and 

It station activity. In addition, the Department IS including emissions that will be p"'d~lceql 

buifding'the proposed Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant in order for that project to 

Conformity requirements. 

availabfe on the Oepartmenes website at www.depweb.state.pa.us or through 

listed below. 

Deoa,tment must receive comments no Jater than December 4, 2013. Written corrm,sr,!"l 

the attention of Kirit DaJar, Chief, Oivision of Air Resource Man.agement, R","~,'" 

l~spr;;{,iO~;'7vitliit';':~B~rBr';OX 8468, Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468, or kdalai@pa.gov. "1 MVEB Revisions" in the subject line. 

E Christopher Abruzzo, Acting Secretary 
, 

Civitas Media - Midwest 

The Times Leader 

PO Box 690 

Miamisburg, OH 45343 

Department of 

Environmental Protection 

ADVERTISING INVOICE I STATEMENT 1/1 

~ ~ 0" BI~LINGyDATE • mERMS'!1:!lf PAUENT ' " '" ~ v" '" NOV 1 3 2013 I 

Air Resource. ~anagement 10/31/2013 Net 30 DIvIsion L.. __________ -'-__________ ......J 

DATE 

DEPT ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTIONIAIR 

QUALITY DIVISI 

400 MARKET ST. 12TH FLOOR/ALEX HAAS 

RACHEL CARSON OFFICE BLDG. 

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TRANs"1{ l!!is'SIllRIPIT1ltLlN 

~ 

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4000 Times Leader -

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aftl Affidavit $7 

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RATE OF 18%, this applies to the previous balance after deducting current payments and credits 

appearing on your statement. 

REMITTANCE ADVICE 

02333380093591000595100000000000000 
 

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 

FINAL 

Volume I 

State Implementation Plan Revision: NOX Motor 

Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the 

MOVES2010a Model; and General Conformity 

Budget for Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Eight-hour Ozone 

Maintenance Area for the 1997 Ozone National 

Ambient Air Quality Standard 

May 2014 

Bureau of Air Quality 

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection 

P.O. Box 8468 

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468 

717-787-9495 
 

[This page intentionally left blank.]
- i - 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

VOLUME I 

1. Introduction and Overview of Ground-Level Ozone ...........................................................1

1.1. 1997 8-hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard ..................................1

1.2. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area and Ozone SIP Revisions ..........................................2

1.3. EPA Requirements for Developing and Revising Maintenance Plans ....................4

1.4. Maintenance Plan Demonstration and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets .............7

1.5. Non-Mobile Inventory Review ................................................................................8

2. Source Category Emissions ...............................................................................................11

2.1. Point Source Category Emissions ..........................................................................11

2.1.1. Control Measures .......................................................................................11

2.1.2. Growth Estimates in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan .......................................................................................11

2.1.3. Point Source Category Conclusion ............................................................12

2.2. Area Source Category Emissions ...........................................................................13

2.2.1. Control Measures .......................................................................................13

2.2.2. Growth Estimates in the Maintenance Plan ...............................................13

2.2.3. Growth Estimates in MARAMA 2011 Regional Modeling Effort ............15

2.2.4. Marcellus Shale Emissions ........................................................................16

2.2.5 Area Source Category Conclusion .............................................................17

2.3. Nonroad Source Category Emissions ....................................................................18

2.3.1. Control Measures .......................................................................................18

2.3.2. Growth Estimates .......................................................................................19

2.3.3. Nonroad Source Category Conclusion.......................................................19

2.4. General Conformity Budget for Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant ..........................20

2.4.1. Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant Emissions ................................................20

2.4.2. General Conformity Budget for the Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant 

Project ........................................................................................................21

2.5 Highway Source Category Emissions ....................................................................21

2.5.1. Control Measures .......................................................................................21

2.5.2. Growth Estimates .......................................................................................22

2.5.3. Mobile Source Category Conclusion .........................................................23

3. Safety Margins ...................................................................................................................24

4. Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for Transportation Conformity ....................................24

5. Conclusion .........................................................................................................................25
- ii - 

VOLUME II 

1. Technical Support Document – See Volume II Table of Contents 

APPENDICES 

1. Appendix C: Maintenance Plan Update for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (Lackawanna, 

Luzerne, Monroe and Wyoming Counties) Eight-hour Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle 

Emission Budget Revisions Using MOVES2010A 

(See Appendix C Table of Contents) 
- iii - 

TABLES 

Table 1: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 2012 Design Values ...........................................................5

Table 2a: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for NOX Calculated with MOVES2010a for 

the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre MPO .....................................................................................................7

Table 2b: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for NOX Calculated with MOVES2010a for 

the Northeastern Pennsylvania Alliance MPO ................................................................................8

Table 2c: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for NOX Calculated with MOVES2010a for 

the Northern Tier RPO .....................................................................................................................8

Table 3: Revised Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area Summer Day NOX Emissions from 2004 

to 2018 ...........................................................................................................................................10

Table 4: 2009 Point Source Emissions – Maintenance Plan Estimate versus Actual ...................12

Table 5: 2018 Point Source Emissions – Maintenance Plan Estimate versus Revised 

2018 Emissions ..............................................................................................................................13

Table 6: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory 

Updates from 2002 to 2009............................................................................................................15

Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory 

Updates from 2009 to 2018............................................................................................................15

Table 8: NOX Emissions Related to Marcellus Shale Activity (Tons/Day) .................................17

Table 9: General Conformity Budget for Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant ...................................21

Table 10: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Estimates Using MOVES2010a for the 

Entire Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area ...............................................................................................23

Table 11: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets ...............................................................................25
- iv - 

[This page intentionally left blank.]
- 1 - 

1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW OF GROUND-LEVEL OZONE 

Maintaining concentrations of ground-level ozone below the health-based 8-hour ozone 

national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) is important because ozone is a serious 

human health threat and can cause damage to important food crops, forests, and wildlife. 

Repeated exposure to ozone pollution may cause a variety of adverse health effects for 

both healthy people and those with existing conditions including: difficulty breathing, 

chest pains, coughing, nausea, throat irritation, and congestion. Ozone exposure can 

exacerbate bronchitis, heart disease, emphysema, and asthma, and reduce lung capacity. 

Asthma is a significant and growing threat to children and adults. Ozone can aggravate 

asthma, causing more asthma attacks, increased use of medication, more medical 

treatment and more frequent visits to hospital emergency clinics. Because ozone 

pollution usually forms in hot weather, anyone who spends time outdoors in the summer 

may be affected, particularly children, the elderly, outdoor workers and people 

exercising. Children are most at risk from exposure to ozone because they are active 

outside during the summertime when ozone levels are highest. 

Ozone is one of the most pervasive and detrimental pollutants known to affect vegetation, 

causing more injury to trees and crops than any other air pollutant in the United States. 

Ozone interferes with photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert water and 

sunlight to food. Ozone makes plants more susceptible to disease, insects, other 

pollutants and harsh weather. It damages the foliage of trees and other plants, ruining the 

landscapes of cities, parks, forests, and recreation areas. Research has shown that current 

ozone concentrations result in reductions in wood growth of over 10 percent in forests of 

the Northeast United States. There is strong scientific evidence showing that current 

levels of ozone are reducing crop yields, particularly in sensitive species such as soybean, 

cotton, and peanuts. Annual crop loss alone from ozone-affected soybeans in Illinois, 

Indiana and Ohio has been calculated to fall between $199 million and $346 million. The 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated national crop yield losses 

due to ozone in excess of $1 billion annually. One of the key components of ozone, 

oxides of nitrogen (NOX), contributes to fish kills and algae blooms in sensitive 

waterways, such as the Chesapeake Bay. 

Ozone is not emitted directly to the atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical 

reactions between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOX in the presence of 

sunlight. The long, hot, humid days of summer are particularly conducive to ozone 

formation, so ozone levels are of concern primarily during the months of May through 

September. The primary sources of man-made VOCs and NOX, the ozone precursors, are 

the evaporation of fuels and solvents (gasoline and consumer products), combustion of 

fuels (motor vehicles, power plants and non-road engines), and industrial processes. 

1.1. 1997 8-hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard 

In July 1997, the EPA established identical primary and secondary 8-hour ozone 

NAAQS at a concentration of 0.08 parts per million (ppm), based on the 3-year 
- 2 - 

average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone 

concentrations measured in the ambient air at each monitored location. 

Implementation of the standards was delayed due to litigation. The EPA 

designated the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area, which consists of all of Lackawanna, 

Luzerne, Monroe, and Wyoming Counties, as nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour 

ozone standard, based on ambient air quality monitoring data collected from 

2001-2003. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area was one of seventeen areas in 

Pennsylvania designated as an 8-hour ozone nonattainment area for the 1997 

ozone NAAQS. 

On March 12, 2008, the EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone to 0.075 ppm 

averaged over 8 hours to provide even greater protection for children, other at-risk 

populations and the environment against the array of ozone-induced adverse 

health and welfare effects (73 FR 16436; March 27, 2008). In April 2012, the 

EPA designated five areas in Pennsylvania as nonattainment for the 2008 ozone 

NAAQS (77 FR 30088, 30143; May 21, 2012). These areas include all or a 

portion of the following counties: Allegheny, Armstrong, Berks, Beaver, Bucks, 

Butler, Carbon, Chester, Delaware, Fayette, Lancaster, Lehigh, Montgomery, 

Northampton, Philadelphia, Washington and Westmoreland. The ozone standard 

is currently undergoing its statutory five year review and EPA is expected to 

promulgate an ozone standard between 0.060 and 0.070 ppm in the near future. 

Pennsylvania could have additional areas that do not meet this anticipated revised 

ozone standard. 

The promulgation of the new ozone standard does not affect the need for this 

revision to the approved maintenance plan for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

(Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan) under the 1997 ozone 

NAAQS. 

1.2. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area and Ozone SIP Revisions 

The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area was designated a “basic” nonattainment area on 

April 15, 2004 (69 FR 23858; April 30, 2004). On June 12, 2007, Pennsylvania 

requested that the EPA redesignate the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area from 

nonattainment to attainment for the ozone standard. The EPA redesignated the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area to attainment on November 19, 2007 (72 FR 64948). 

The DEP concurrently submitted a SIP revision to the EPA that included a 

maintenance plan based on the attainment and continued long-term attainment of 

the 1997 ozone NAAQS for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area (Scranton/WilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan), the 2002 baseline inventory, and motor vehicle 

emission budgets (MVEBs) to be used for purposes of transportation conformity. 

The EPA’s transportation conformity regulation, codified at 40 CFR Part 93, 

Subpart A and incorporated by reference in its entirety at 25 Pa. Code

Chapter 127, Subpart J, requires that the transportation plan, Transportation 

Improvement Program (TIP), and projects not from a conforming transportation 

plan and TIP must be consistent with the MVEBs in the applicable air quality SIP. 
- 3 - 

This criterion is satisfied if the state can demonstrate that emissions of the 

pollutants or pollutant precursors for which the area is in nonattainment or 

maintenance, and for which the applicable SIP contains MVEBs approved or 

deemed adequate by the EPA, are less than or equal to the MVEBs established in 

the applicable SIP or SIP submission. The metropolitan planning organizations 

(MPO) and rural planning organizations (RPOs) for the area, Scranton/WilkesBarre MPO, Northeastern Pennsylvania Alliance MPO, and Northern Tier RPO, 

ensure that emissions resulting from their TIPs are less than the MVEBs in the 

SIP by completing periodic conformity determinations, which are subject to 

public comment. MPOs1 are established in federal regulation. For the purposes 

of transportation conformity, DEP considers RPOs to perform the same function 

as MPOs for areas that do not meet the population requirements for establishing 

an MPO. In the same November 19, 2007, action in which EPA approved 

Pennsylvania’s request to redesignate the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area as 

attainment, EPA approved all of the components of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Plan, including the MVEBs (72 FR 64948). The EPA 

approved a revision to the maintenance plan’s 2009 and 2018 MVEBs on 

August 11, 2009. The revision established MVEBs for each MPO and RPO in the 

nonattainment area (74 FR 40083). This revision does not alter the MVEBs for 

VOC from the August 11, 2009, revision. 

The approved MVEBs included in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance 

Plan were estimated using the EPA-approved highway emissions model in effect 

at that time, the Highway Mobile Source Emission Factor Model version 6.2 

(Mobile6.2). The MVEBs in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area Ozone 

Maintenance Plan included emission budgets for both NOX and VOC. On 

March 2, 2010, the EPA released a new mobile source emissions model called the 

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator 2010 (MOVES2010). Any new transportation 

conformity analysis started after March 2, 2013, must use the most up-to-date 

version of MOVES. 

EPA issued the MOVES2010b version of the model and its associated guidance in 

April 2012. EPA considers both MOVES2010a and MOVES2010b to be minor 

revisions to MOVES2010 that do not significantly affect the results of modeling 

criteria pollutant estimates for highway vehicles. References to “MOVES” in the 

remainder of this document relate to all of the approved versions of the model. 

The highway vehicle emissions modeling for this proposed SIP revision was 

already developed significantly using MOVES2010a. By the time that 

version 2010b was issued, using MOVES2010b would have been impractical. 

Compared to Mobile6.2, the MOVES model estimates higher NOX emissions and 

in some areas higher VOC emissions being produced by highway vehicles, 

depending on the model’s inputs. As a result, comparing emissions from the 

MOVES model to the MVEB included in an approved maintenance plan would 

not allow local and regional transportation planning agencies to meet the 

 

1

 23 CFR § 450.300-450.336 
- 4 - 

requirements of transportation conformity; the emissions budget in the 

maintenance plan would be exceeded and transportation planning could be 

adversely affected. This is why DEP is updating the MVEB for the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area using the newer EPA-approved emissions model, 

MOVES2010a. 

It is important to mention that higher emission estimates calculated by 

MOVES2010a do not mean that emissions from vehicles dramatically increased. 

The MOVES model better estimates emissions that are already being produced by 

vehicles. Consequently, the ability of the area to maintain the standard will not be 

affected by using estimates produced by the new model. 

1.3. EPA Requirements for Developing and Revising Maintenance Plans 

The EPA-approved 2007 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre redesignation request is 

consistent with the September 4, 1992, EPA memorandum written by John 

Calcagni, Director, Air Quality Management Division, entitled, Procedures for 

Processing Requests to Redesignate Areas to Attainment. For the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan, DEP produced an emissions 

inventory for NOX, VOC, and carbon monoxide (CO) for 2004, the attainment 

year, which included ambient air quality monitoring data that showed emissions 

that met the 1997 ozone NAAQS in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area. The 

inventory was based on a “typical summer day,” as required by the EPA. The 

DEP developed an emissions inventory for 2018 that demonstrated that the area 

would meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS for a 10-year period following redesignation 

of the area to attainment. The emissions inventory for 2018, a maintenance year, 

showed that emissions of NOX, VOC, and CO in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

would not exceed emissions that occurred in 2004. The maintenance year is a 

year at least 10 years in the future that a state chooses to demonstrate that 

emissions over a 10-year period of analysis will not lead to an exceedance of the 

standard. A state demonstrates attainment of the standard by showing that 

emissions in a maintenance year are less than emissions in the attainment year. 

An emissions inventory in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan 

showed that emissions in 2009, the interim year, did not exceed emissions in 

2004, the attainment year. The 2009 and 2018 inventories both considered future 

growth projected from a 2002 baseline year, and included emission reductions 

from permanent and enforceable control measures. 

This proposed SIP revision updates highway emissions estimates in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan using the newer MOVES2010a 

model. DEP need not update emissions estimates for area sources (except to 

reflect new emissions related to Marcellus Shale activity in the 2018 inventory) or 

nonroad sources because actual growth in emissions from these two sectors was 

less than projected in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. The 

growth assumptions for emissions produced by area sources in the maintenance 
- 5 - 

plan are mostly greater than the actual growth that occurred from 2002 to 2009 

(See Tables 6 and 7). The growth assumptions for emissions produced by 

nonroad sources in the maintenance plan are greater than what actually occurred 

from 2002 to 2009. Projected growth of nonroad source emissions in the 

approved Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan for the year 2009 was 

greater than the actual growth that actually occurred from 2002 to 2009. 

Additionally, newer, updated emission growth projections to 2018 for area and 

nonroad sources are less than emission growth projections for these sources in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. Company-reported point source 

emissions are used in this proposed SIP revision to revise the projected 2009 

emissions in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. Also in this 

proposed SIP revision, linearly interpolated 2018 point source emission estimates 

derived from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association 

(MARAMA) 2011 effort for modeling ambient particulate matter concentrations 

are used to revise 2018 projected point source emissions in the Scranton/WilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

This proposed SIP revision also provides a general conformity budget for Bell 

Bend Nuclear Power Plant. 

Recent ambient air quality monitoring results for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

demonstrate continued attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS (0.08 parts per 

million, with rounding 84 parts per billion), as shown in Table 1. 

Table 1: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 2012 Design Values 

Monitor 2010 

4th highest 

2011 

4th highest 

2012 

4th highest 

3-Year 

Average or 

Design Value1 

Lackawanna 42-069-0101 74 ppb 71 ppb 72 ppb 72 ppb 

Lackawanna Downwind 

42-069-2006 71 ppb 68 ppb 74 ppb 71 ppb 

Luzerne 42-079-1100 70 ppb 64 ppb 66 ppb 67 ppb 

Luzerne 42-079-1101 66 ppb 65 ppb 68 ppb 66 ppb 

Monroe 42-089-0002 78 ppb 63 ppb 69 ppb 70 ppb 

1 A “design value” is the annual fourth highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone concentration, averaged over three years. 

The EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality developed guidance titled, 

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 and Subsequent Minor Revisions for 

State Implementation Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other 

Purposes, (MOVES2010 guidance) EPA 420-B-12-010, April 2012. This 

guidance describes requirements for SIP revisions. For maintenance 

demonstrations, areas can have a revised motor vehicle emissions inventory and 

budget using MOVES without revising emissions for other sectors included in the 

applicable SIP or completing additional modeling if: 
- 6 - 

 The SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when the previous 

motor vehicle emissions inventories are replaced with inventories 

generated by MOVES2010a; and, 

 The state can document that growth and control strategy assumptions for 

non-motor vehicle sources continue to be valid and minor updates do not 

change the overall conclusions of the SIP. 

The EPA further states that if both of the criteria are met, the state can simply 

re-submit the original maintenance plan with the revised motor vehicle emissions 

inventories, using the most current version of the MOVES model. However, if 

either criterion is not met, the emissions categories in the maintenance plan that 

have changed must be brought up to date. In this SIP revision, emissions growth 

of point, area, nonroad and highway sources are compared directly, but emissions 

growth due to a new emissions source, Marcellus Shale drilling activity, is 

displayed separately and included in the area source inventory. Drilling activity 

includes well drilling and transport of the gas with the use of compressor stations. 

Highway vehicle emissions relating to gas drilling activity is included in the 

mobile inventory. 

For this SIP revision, actual 2009 and projected 2018 point source emissions are 

less than the emissions included in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. Nevertheless, this SIP revision revises point source emissions 

for both 2009 and 2018. Actual area source activity did not increase compared to 

projected growth of area source activity in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. The area source emissions in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Plan will not be revised except for adding Marcellus Shale 

emissions. Even though area source NOX emissions increased very slightly from 

2004 to 2018 in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area and increase even more when 

emissions from Marcellus Shale activity are added, emissions from all sectors in 

2018 fall below 2004 NOX emissions. 

This proposed SIP revision includes information addressing the recommendations 

described in the MOVES2010 guidance, listed here: 

 Demonstration that the 1997 ozone NAAQS approved maintenance plans 

continues to meet applicable requirements with the revised motor vehicle 

emissions inventories, as calculated by the most recently approved 

MOVES model, and recalculation of the attainment year, interim year and 

maintenance year MVEBs with the latest planning assumptions, including 

documentation of the updated assumptions; 

 Review of the point, area, and nonroad emissions inventories for the 

interim year and maintenance year to determine if growth and control 

strategy assumptions have changed and, if so, development of an analysis 

to determine if these changes affect the conclusion of the maintenance 

plan that air quality will remain compliant with the 1997 ozone NAAQS; 

and 
- 7 - 

 Assessment to confirm that excess emissions exist and the quantification 

of these excess emissions for use in the safety margin applied to the 

MVEBs. 

1.4. Maintenance Plan Demonstration and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets 

Tables 2a, 2b, and 2c show the revised 2004, 2009 and 2018 NOX MVEBs 

calculated using the latest planning assumptions for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Area using MOVES2010a. Emissions of VOC are from the Scranton/WilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan. Assumptions used in the MOVES2010a 

modeling, including model inputs, growth assumptions and modeling 

methodology, are provided in Appendix C. Highway vehicle emissions generated 

by MOVES2010a show a clear, downward trend in emissions in future years. 

Emissions of NOX were generated by MOVES and emissions of VOC were 

generated by Mobile6.2. 

Table 2a: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for NOX Calculated with 

MOVES2010a for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre MPO 

Year NOX Emissions 

(tons/day) 

VOC Emissions 

(tons/day) 

2004 Attainment Year 54.88 22.77 

2009 Modeled Emissions 41.27 16.63 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins2 1.40 1.36 

2009 Interim Year Budget 42.67 17.97 

2018 Modeled Emissions 20.53 9.84 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 1.37 1.96 

2018 Maintenance Year Budgets 21.90 11.80 

 

2

 A “safety margin” is the amount of emissions by which the total projected emissions from all sources of a given 

pollutant are less than the total emissions that would satisfy the applicable requirement for reasonable further 

progress, attainment, or maintenance (40 CFR § 93.101). The state may designate a portion of these emissions for 

use by the MPO or Department of Transportation (DOT) as a safety margin to be used for transportation projects. 

See 40 CFR § 93.124(a) for application of a safety margin. 
- 8 - 

Table 2b: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for NOX Calculated with 

MOVES2010a for the Northeastern Pennsylvania Alliance MPO 

Year NOX Emissions 

(tons/day) 

VOC Emissions 

(tons/day) 

2004 Attainment Year 18.85 7.47 

2009 Modeled Emissions 13.61 5.73 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 0.49 0.46 

2009 Interim Year Budget 14.10 6.19 

2018 Modeled Emissions 6.55 3.99 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 0.55 0.65 

2018 Maintenance Year Budgets 7.10 4.64 

Table 2c: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for NOX Calculated with 

MOVES2010a for the Northern Tier RPO 

Year NOX Emissions 

(tons/day) 

VOC Emissions 

(tons/day) 

2004 Attainment Year 3.29 1.40 

2009 Modeled Emissions 2.39 0.97 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 0.11 0.03 

2009 Interim Year Budget 2.50 0.99 

2018 Modeled Emissions 1.46 0.51 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 0.14 0.03 

2018 Maintenance Year Budgets 1.60 0.54 

1.5. Non-Mobile Inventory Review 

The EPA states in its MOVES2010 guidance that revisions to existing SIPs and 

motor vehicle emission budgets must continue to meet applicable Clean Air Act 

requirements. A maintenance plan revised to take into account new emission 

estimates due to an update in the highway model must demonstrate that 

attainment of the standard continues, even with updated control measures and 

growth estimates. This proposed SIP revision includes increases in the 

maintenance plan’s NOX emission estimates for the attainment, interim and 

maintenance years resulting from revising highway emissions using MOVES 

instead of the Mobile6.2 model. This proposed SIP revision also accounts for 

emissions of point, area, and nonroad sources using the latest planning 

assumptions and growth estimates. Total emissions of VOC and NOX in the years 

2009 and 2018 cannot exceed the emissions in the 2004 attainment year 

inventory. The DEP concludes that the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area will continue 

to demonstrate attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS because total emissions of 

NOX in the interim year and maintenance year will be less than the 2004 

attainment year emissions for NOX. Developing a revised highway inventory for 

CO and VOC is unnecessary for this proposed SIP revision because CO and VOC 
- 9 - 

emissions in most cases decrease across the maintenance area using MOVES in 

place of the Mobile6.2 model. 

Growth and control strategy assumptions have changed for all of the emission 

categories since the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan was 

approved. The changes in these assumptions have generally decreased forecasted 

emissions in future years. A severe economic recession occurred since the 

maintenance plan was approved and employment was greatly depressed, falling 

short of the employment projections in the maintenance plan for the year 2009. 

More controls of source categories have been implemented at both the federal and 

state level. Nonroad NOX projected emissions are not being revised for the 

interim and maintenance year in this proposed SIP revision. Area source 

emissions are being kept the same for 2009 and updated for 2018 in this proposed 

SIP revision. The point source emission inventory is being updated. DEP 

compared updated growth estimates with growth assumptions and growth 

estimates in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. That analysis is 

included below. More detailed information can be found in Volume II: Technical 

Support Document. 

Some SIP revisions for certain areas in the Commonwealth will require DEP to 

update growth and strategy assumptions of non-motor vehicle sources. A number 

of areas in the Commonwealth are home to newly-built stationary air 

contamination sources. Some areas have experienced Marcellus Shale gas 

development, which has increased area source emissions. 

The EPA developed the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) in 2005 to control 

emissions from EGUs (70 FR 25162; May 12, 2005) and later amendments. The 

U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit remanded CAIR in December 2008, 

without vacating it, in North Carolina v. EPA, 531 F.3d 896, modified, 

550 F.9d 1176 (D.C. Cir. 2008). EPA developed the Cross-State Air Pollution 

Rule (CSAPR) in 2011 to limit the transport of NOX and sulfur dioxide, which 

could have changed projected emissions of point sources (76 FR 48208; Aug. 8, 

2011), and later revisions. The court vacated CSAPR on August 21, 2012, 

however, and ordered EPA to continue administering CAIR pending the 

promulgation of a valid replacement. On April 29, 2014, the Supreme Court of 

the United States reversed the D.C. Circuit Court’s decision that vacated CSAPR, 

and remanded the case to the Circuit Court for further proceedings. Until CSAPR 

becomes implemented or further direction is provided by the EPA or the courts, 

CAIR remains in place. On November 19, 2012, Assistant Administrator Gina 

McCarthy issued a memorandum stating that it is appropriate for EPA to rely on 

CAIR reductions as permanent and enforceable until court proceedings are 

resolved or, if the vacatur of CSAPR remains in place. On May 31, 2014, the 

Supreme Court handed down a decision upholding CSAPR, in EPA v. EME 

Homer City Generation, U.S., No. 12-1182, and American Lung Ass’n v. EME 

Homer City Generation, U.S., No. 12-1183. In terms of impacts, the CSAPR will 

require more sources in more states to reduce NOX emissions than CAIR requires. 
- 10 - 

Some owners and operators of EGUs have responded to new economic and 

regulatory developments by closing or deactivating coal-fired electric generation 

units or by switching fuels (such as natural gas) at their facilities, which includes 

facilities in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area. 

Table 3 shows that NOX emissions in the future, interim and maintenance years 

will not exceed overall emissions from all sources in 2004, the attainment year, 

even though highway emissions are greater in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

when modeled by MOVES than when the emissions were estimated by Mobile6.2 

in the maintenance plan. Actual emissions for the 2009 point sources and updated 

2018 projected point source emissions were included in the SIP revision 

inventory. Projected nonroad category emissions from the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Plan are used for 2009 and 2018 in this proposed SIP 

revision. Projected nonroad sources do not need to be updated because emissions 

and activity growth from nonroad sources have not increased since the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan was submitted to EPA. Area 

source emissions in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan are left 

unchanged since projected growth of these sources is either unchanged or less 

since actual growth is less than what was predicted. However, emissions from 

Marcellus Shale development activity were added to the 2018 area source 

emissions as a result of that activity which has occurred and will occur after 2009. 

Attainment of the 1997 ozone standard is maintained by showing that revised 

actual and projected growth for 2009 and 2018 does not increase overall future 

emissions of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. This proposed 

SIP revision demonstrates that growth assumptions in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Plan forecast greater growth than what actually occurred or 

will occur in the major source category segments. 

Table 3: Revised Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

Summer Day NOX Emissions from 2004 to 2018 

NOX in Tons/Day 

Year Point Area* Nonroad Mobile General Conformity 

Budget for Bell Bend Total 

2004 7.0 4.0 10.9 77.0 0.0 98.9 

2009 7.7 4.2 8.9 59.3 1.0 81.1 

Δ(2004-2009) 0.7 0.2 -2.0 -17.7 1.0 -17.8 

2018 5.8 7.5 5.6 30.6 1.0 50.5 

Δ(2004-2018) -1.2 3.5 -5.3 -46.4 1.0 -48.4 

*Area sources include emissions of Marcellus Shale Activity. 
- 11 - 

2. SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS 

2.1. Point Source Category Emissions 

2.1.1. Control Measures 

At the time of the development of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan, many large sources were affected by the requirements 

of CAIR. Pennsylvania implemented NOX control programs, including 

implementation of CAIR, which control NOX from large industrial boilers, 

internal combustion engines, electric generating units, and cement kilns. 

Another control measure took effect for NOX emissions for point sources 

after the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan was approved. 

New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) affected new engines 

installed at facilities after January 1, 2011, by requiring internal 

combustion engines to meet a 50 percent reduction in NOX, and will 

reduce NOX emissions of the affected sources in 2018. The reductions 

that will result are not included in the inventory. These reductions are 

mentioned to demonstrate that emissions will continue to decrease in the 

area. 

2.1.2. Growth Estimates in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance 

Plan 

Two annual point source inventories using historical emissions data 

reported to DEP by point source facilities were included in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. The DEP developed an 

emissions inventory of point sources for calendar years 2002 and 2004. 

The 2002 point source emissions inventory represents a time when the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area did not meet the 1997 ozone NAAQs. The 

2004 point source inventory showed emissions that occurred during 2004, 

the attainment year for the 1997 ozone NAAQS. 

Emission projections for the point source sector for 11 states, including 

Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia, were prepared for MARAMA 

by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc. (MACTEC). Future year projections 

were developed by MACTEC so that states could use the point source 

inventories in their SIPs. Emission projections were prepared for years 

2009 and 2018. 

For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future, the point source 

inventory in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan is 

divided into two subsectors -- the EGU sector and the non-EGU sector. 

Different projection methods were used for those two sectors. For the 

EGU sector, the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU) 

used the Integrating Planning Model (IPM) to project future electric 
- 12 - 

generation, as well as to calculate the impact of control programs on future 

emission levels. The EGU Modeling data was made available by 

MANE-VU to its member states, including Pennsylvania. The 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area has several CAIR affected facilities. For the 

non-EGU sector, growth factors were developed by using the EPA’s 

Economic Growth Analysis System Version 5.0 (EGAS 5.0). The 

U.S. Department of Energy fuel consumption forecasts were used to 

replace default values in EGAS 5.0. Also, state-supplied population, 

employment, and other emission projection data were used to update and 

enhance the EGAS 5.0 default values. 

In the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area, two electric generating units at the 

UGI Development Corporation facility in Hunlock Creek were activated 

since EPA approved the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

These two units are powered by natural gas. The two units replaced one 

coal-powered unit, which resulted in significant reductions of NOX

emissions. The resulting emissions reductions are projected in the 2018 

point source emission inventory of this SIP revision. 

2.1.3. Point Source Category Conclusion 

This proposed SIP revision projected NOX emissions for 2009 in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan are being revised with 

actual emissions for point sources in 2009, because the actual emissions 

are readily available and allow easy comparison between the projected 

emissions in the maintenance plan and the actual emissions. The DEP 

assessed point source emissions by comparing the actual emissions 

inventory data submitted to DEP by owners and operators of point sources 

for 2009 to the estimated 2009 NOX emissions from point sources in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. The Scranton/WilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan overestimated point source emissions for 

2009. Table 4 shows that the projected point source emissions of NOX in 

the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan were 1.7 tons per day 

more than actual 2009 point source emissions. Actual emissions of NOX

and VOC declined from 2004 to 2009, even when compared to the slow 

growth in emissions forecasted in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. The emission estimates were as close as they were 

item in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan because 

emission reduction credits were not included as a line. 

Table 4: 2009 Point Source Emissions – Maintenance Plan 

Estimate versus Actual 

2009 Emissions NOX (Tons/Day) 

Maintenance Plan Estimate 9.4 

Actual 7.7 
- 13 - 

In this proposed SIP revision, the DEP revises the 2018 inventory in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan by using emissions from 

the inventory developed by MARAMA. The MARAMA projected 

inventory estimated emissions for the years 2017 and 2020 from a baseline 

2007 emissions inventory. In order to obtain emission estimates for the 

2018 maintenance year, a straight line interpolation between 2007 and 

2020 was used and outstanding emission reduction credits were used. 

Projected point source NOX emissions in 2018 using the MARAMA 

estimates are still well below the 2018 projected point source emissions in 

the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan, as shown in Table 5, 

and thus show that projected point source emissions in 2018 will fall 

below the 2004 (attainment year) emission levels. For more information 

about how the projected emissions were estimated, see Volume II: 

Technical Support Document. 

Table 5: 2018 Point Source Emissions – Maintenance Plan 

Estimate versus Revised 2018 Emissions 

2018 Emissions NOX (tons/day) 

2018 Maintenance Plan Estimate 10.5 

2018 Revised Estimate (MARAMA Inventory) 5.8 

2.2. Area Source Category Emissions 

2.2.1. Control Measures 

The area sector includes, but is not limited to, such diverse emissions 

source categories as: surface coating; commercial and consumer solvent 

use; residential heating; open burning; traffic line painting; and landfill 

gases. Emissions are produced from a wide number of sources for which 

actual emissions or direct indicators of emissions are not available. 

2.2.2. Growth Estimates in the Maintenance Plan 

Area source emission growth factors were developed by using the default 

configuration in EGAS 5.0. EGAS 5.0 used the Department of Energy 

Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) fuel use projections. In this 

proposed SIP revision, the AEO2005 fuel consumption forecasts were 

used to replace AEO2004 forecasts. State-supplied population and 

employment data were used to replace default data, when the statespecific data was available. Growth estimates were represented by 

growth factors for each area source classification code (SCC) for each 

county. 
- 14 - 

County-level population data for 2000, and projections for 2010 and 2020 

from the Pennsylvania State Data Center, http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/, were 

provided to derive growth factors for this proposed SIP revision. This 

data were interpolated to obtain growth factors for projecting emissions 

from 2002 to 2009 for SCCs that are population based. General 

employment data for 21 counties or areas for 2000, and projections to 

2010 and 2020, were used. This data were also interpolated to estimate 

growth factors for projecting from 2002 to 2009 and 2018 for nine area 

source categories. For all other area source categories, AEO2005 

forecasts were used for projecting emissions from area source fuel 

combustion, when available. If AEO2005 forecasts are not available, 

EGAS 5.0 default factors were used. 

The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan relied upon many 

different types of socioeconomic indicators that served as surrogates to 

actual sales data to estimate emissions growth and emissions from the 

area source sector when actual sales data was not available. Population, 

employment, fuel use and housing data are some of the surrogates used. 

Methodologies for estimating emissions from some area sources were 

updated by the EPA in the time since EPA approved the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan, but because the 

emissions change similarly for the attainment, interim and maintenance 

years, as a result of these updated methodologies, the emissions changing 

will not result in a significant difference between the attainment year’s 

emissions and the maintenance year’s emissions. As Table 6 shows, with 

the exception of commercial boilers using natural gas, growth in area 

source activity has declined. Overall, emissions decrease from area 

sources, since actual growth rates from 2002 to 2009 and projected 

growth rates from 2009 to 2018 are lower than, or nearly the same as, the 

growth rates used in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

The growth surrogates presented in Table 6 serve as growth surrogates 

for most SCCs in the area source category in the maintenance plan, which 

account for a large majority of the emissions in the area source inventory. 

Table 7 shows that revised growth for 2009 to 2018 is less in most 

categories than what appeared in the maintenance plan with the exception 

of residential distillate oil and anthracite commercial coal use, which are 

up slightly from the original estimates in the maintenance plan. 
- 15 - 

Table 6: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and 

Inventory Updates from 2002 to 2009 

Growth Surrogates 

Maintenance Plan 

Surrogate 

Estimates (2006) 

Actual Growth 

(Census Data) 

Population * 1.0400 1.0215 

Total Employment 1.0586 1.0359 

Commercial Boilers Natural Gas 1.0106 1.1167 

Commercial Boilers, Distillate 1.0731 1.0221 

Commercial Boilers, Coal 1.0481 0.6805 

*Growth for the year 2009 is computed from the years 2002 to 2009. 

Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and 

Inventory Updates from 2009 to 2018 

Growth Surrogates Maintenance 

Plan Growth 

(2009-2018)* 

Revised Growth from 

MARAMA Inventory 

(2009-2018)* 

Population 1.1081 1.0509 

Employees 1.1499 1.0113 

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9988 0.9799 

Anthracite, Commercial 0.9865 1.0055 

All Combustor Types, Distillate 

Oil, Residential 

0.9598 0.9615 

Boilers and Internal Combustion 

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 

1.0521 1.0154 

Combustor Types, Natural Gas, 

Residential 

1.0181 1.0034 

*Growth for the year 2018 is given as a factor estimating growth from 2009 to 2018. Due to 

different time ranges used for growth estimates in the maintenance plan and more recent 

inventory data, growth based on 2002 was impossible to estimate. This method allows for a 

direct comparison. 

2.2.3. Growth Estimates in MARAMA 2011 Regional Modeling Effort 

The development of growth factors for the MARAMA 2011 regional 

modeling effort for area sources used one or a combination of the 

following as surrogates for growth: AEO2010, population data, or 

employment data. A direct comparison cannot be made between the 

growth factors based on AEO2005 or population in the original 

maintenance plan and this proposed SIP revision, which uses growth 

factors from MARAMA’s 2011 regional modeling effort. As years pass, 

different inventory methodologies are developed. This proposed SIP 

revision uses the best possible method to compare emissions inventories 

that use differing methodologies (See Volume II: Technical Support 
- 16 - 

Document). The MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort developed 

growth factors for most SCCs using AEO2010 or county level population. 

Employment data was derived from North American Industry 

Classification System to the state level. Since employment data to the 

county level was not available from the MARAMA 2011 modeling, state 

employment data was applied to all SCCs and counties in this proposed 

SIP revision. The recession also reduced employment, which fell short of 

the projections in the maintenance plan for the year 2009. Starting from 

depressed employment levels in 2009, it is unlikely that employment 

projections in the maintenance plan will be exceeded in reality in 2018, 

even if employment growth recovers to normal levels in the near future. 

Revised growth estimates show this to be the likely case. 

2.2.4. Marcellus Shale Emissions 

Significant infrastructure development to extract Marcellus Shale natural 

gas in certain counties in Pennsylvania has occurred since the DEP 

submitted the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area Maintenance Plan to EPA for 

approval. Area source emissions result from the placement of drilling 

equipment, gathering lines and compressor stations. The 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area has experienced natural gas development of 

the Marcellus Shale play in the region. In 2011, the total Marcellus Shale 

well count in Wyoming and Lackawanna Counties was 101.3

 These wells 

were drilled mostly over a three-year period. According to the Marcellus 

Shale Coalition, drilling activity has been forecasted to remain constant 

into the foreseeable future across Pennsylvania.4 In 2013, the well count 

in Wyoming and Lackawanna County was 177, which is consistent with a 

forecast of well drilling activity remaining constant. Approximately, 

35 wells are being drilled on average every year. Although Marcellus 

Shale drilling activity is expected to remain constant in Pennsylvania for 

the foreseeable future, activity of compressor stations will likely increase 

because the volume of natural gas being pumped will likely increase from 

present to the maintenance year 2018. Some compressor engines were 

approved to operate at a limit of 2.0 grams per brake horsepower-hour. 

Compressor engines are expected to be cleaner in the future, due to DEP’s 

February 2013 issuance of General Permit BAQ-GPA/GP-5, Natural Gas 

Compression and/or Processing Facilities (GP-5). Currently, GP-5 limits 

NOX emissions of compressor station lean-burn engines over 500 brake 

horsepower, which is the engine type used predominately for compressors, 

at 0.50 grams per brake horsepower-hour. Table 8 shows NOX emissions 

from Marcellus Shale activities. While some drilling activity occurred in 

Lackawanna County, the annual emissions rounded to zero when the DEP 

 

3

 Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection data submitted to the DEP by gas producers, 

2011 inventory. 

4

 Information was gathered during a phone conversation between DEP staff from the Bureau of Air Quality and 

Marcellus Shale Coalition representatives, 2012. 
- 17 - 

estimated daily emissions. Marcellus Shale drilling activity is only 

occurring in two counties of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area and 

Wyoming County is experiencing the vast majority of activity. 

Compressor engines started to be permitted in Wyoming County 

beginning in 2012. In 2012, there were 27 permitted compressor engines 

in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area. Fourteen of these compressor engines 

began operation by the end of 2013. Growth in the needed compressor 

engine horsepower to pump natural gas through a pipeline is assumed to 

be proportional to the natural gas production growth rate for Wyoming 

County. All projected compressor engine emissions were conservatively 

forecast. See Volume II: Technical Support Document for more details 

on the methodology used for estimating Marcellus Shale drilling activity 

and compressor engine emissions. 

Table 8: NOX Emissions Related to Marcellus Shale Activity (Tons/Day) 

County Type of Emission 

Activity 

Years 

2004 2009 2018 

NOX NOX NOX

Lackawanna Drilling 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Lackawanna Compressor Stations 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Wyoming Drilling 0.0 0.0 1.7 

Wyoming Compressor Stations 0.0 0.0 1.4 

2.2.5 Area Source Category Conclusion 

The DEP examined growth indicators that predict most area source 

emissions growth (population, total employment, and fossil fuel use) that 

actually occurred between 2002 and 2009. Fossil fuel use is predictive of 

growth in NOX emissions. Population and total employment growth was 

either the same or slightly lower in 2009 than 2002. Of the major fossil 

fuels examined, only natural gas use increased at a faster rate than what 

was predicted in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

Natural gas use from 2002 to 2009 was about 10 percent higher than what 

was predicted in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. By 

energy content, in 2009, natural gas used in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Area was slightly less than the combined energy content of coal and 

distillate oil used. Actual coal consumption was 36 percent lower and 

distillate oil consumption was 4 percent lower than what was predicted. 

Even though coal use comprises only half of the energy content of the 

natural gas used in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area, a 36 percent over 

prediction in coal use offsets the 10 percent under prediction of natural gas 

use in terms of total energy used. Therefore, less energy in the area source 

sector was used in 2009 than what was predicted in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. Since coal and distillate 
- 18 - 

oil usually produce more emissions than natural gas per unit of energy 

content, it can be assumed that emissions from area source fossil fuels 

declined from 2002 to 2009. 

Emissions produced by Marcellus Shale activity were a significant 

addition to the area source inventory in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. Area source emissions were revised by adding 

Marcellus Shale emissions to the emissions included in the maintenance 

plan. 

For area source emissions other than Marcellus Shale related emissions, 

the DEP demonstrated that it is reasonable to assume that emissions 

growth for area sources that has and is occurring is less than the growth 

forecasted in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan for NOX

for the interim and maintenance years, 2009 and 2018. DEP compared 

growth estimates used in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance 

Plan and the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort. Emissions of 

NOX from the area source sector have increased only as a result of 

Marcellus Shale activity. Therefore, the area source inventory was revised 

by adding emissions from Marcellus Shale activity for the year 2018. 

2.3. Nonroad Source Category Emissions 

2.3.1. Control Measures 

The nonroad category contains many different types of equipment. DEP 

used NONROAD2005 for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance 

Plan. All versions of the EPA’s NONROAD Model estimate emissions 

for over 200 types of engines and vehicles. Nonroad engines and vehicles 

can be used for such applications as construction, lawn and garden care, 

farming, and industrial applications. Emissions from three types of 

activities -- aircraft, locomotive, and commercial marine vessel 

activities -- are not estimated in the NONROAD Model but are in the 

nonroad category. In the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance 

Plan, the NONROAD2005 model was used to estimate emissions of 

nonroad vehicles and engines. The model went through one major 

revision since then. NONROAD2008a is the latest version of this model. 

This new version of the model incorporates two reduction strategies that 

affect engines and vehicles in the nonroad sector: 

 Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on 

locomotive and marine engines (See Control of Emissions of Air 

Pollution From Locomotive Engines and Marine CompressionIgnition Engines Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder; 73 FR 25098; 

May 6, 2008); and 
- 19 - 

 The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and 

recreational marine rule (See Control of Emissions from Nonroad 

Spark-Ignition Engines and Equipment; 73 FR 59034; October 8, 

2008). 

For the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan, DEP modified 

files in the NONROAD Model, when state specific data was available, 

that affect emission categories such as residential lawn and garden and 

recreational marine vessels. 

2.3.2. Growth Estimates 

Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan as a result of additional 

controls mentioned in Section 2.3.1, and other controls that have been 

phased in since 2004 for engines used in the nonroad sector. The fleet 

turnover that occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and 

vehicles are replaced by newer equipment and vehicles that meet more 

stringent emission standards has continued to lower emissions in the 

nonroad sector since the late 1990s, and will continue to do so for the next 

10 years. Because of these controls, emission reductions occurred across 

all segments of the nonroad category, including construction equipment, 

farming equipment, locomotives, and lawn and garden equipment. 

Furthermore, the recession significantly lowered construction, railroad, 

aircraft, and industrial activity, and, consequently, lowered emissions. 

Even if growth returns to pre-recession levels, overall growth will likely 

remain lower than predicted in the maintenance plan up to the 2018 

maintenance year. 

2.3.3. Nonroad Source Category Conclusion 

The DEP demonstrated that it is reasonable to assume that emissions 

growth for nonroad sources that has occurred, and is occurring, is less than 

the growth forecasted in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance 

Plan for NOX for both maintenance years: 2009 and 2018. DEP 

compared growth estimates used in NONROAD2005 and 

NONROAD2008a, and took into account fleet turnover and the effects of 

the recession. Emissions of NOX from the nonroad source sector have not 

increased as a result of any new activity or update in methodology. 

Therefore, no revisions to the nonroad source sector for NOX emissions 

are necessary. 
- 20 - 

2.4. General Conformity Budget for Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant 

2.4.1. Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant Emissions 

PPL Nuclear Development, LLC is proposing to build a nuclear power 

plant in Luzerne County called Bell Bend. Building the Bell Bend 

Nuclear Power Plant will involve a great amount of earth moving activity, 

and with that activity, will produce significant NOX emissions. The 

project will invoke the general conformity requirements of 40 CFR 

part 93, Subpart B, which implement Section 176 of the Clean Air Act, 

42 U.S.C. § 7506, and which are adopted by reference by the 

Commonwealth in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 127, Subchapter J. The project 

schedule indicates it will take seven years to complete the plant. 

The general conformity requirements are designed to ensure that Federal 

actions comply with national ambient air quality standards. In order to 

meet this Clean Air Act requirement, a Federal agency must demonstrate 

that every action that it undertakes, approves, permits or supports will 

conform to the appropriate SIP 

(http://www.epa.gov/air/genconform/faq.html#6). Federal agencies taking 

actions, in this case the Nuclear Regulatory Agency, will need to 

demonstrate that the actions taken by PPL Nuclear Development, LLC 

meet the requirements of the General Conformity Rule. 

The nonroad equipment used for this project will produce an amount of 

NOX emissions that will exceed the applicable de minimis NOX threshold 

in 40 CFR § 93.153(b), which is 100 tons per calendar year for the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area. The project will also increase NOX

emissions from highway and area sources. Annual emissions of NOX for 

this project are forecasted to be largest during the second year of 

construction, at 167.7 tons. This amount of emission is produced by onsite nonroad diesel equipment and vehicles, small combustion engines, 

work force commuting that occurs within the maintenance area, delivery 

vehicle that operate within the maintenance area, on-site highway 

vehicles, and safety-related activities. 

Annual VOC emissions for this project will not exceed 14.3 tons, which is 

far below the de minimis VOC threshold in 40 CFR § 93.153(b) of 50 tons 

per calendar year. Emissions of VOC do not need to be considered in this 

budget. 

A NOX budget for the purposes of meeting the requirements of General 

Conformity is included in this SIP revision. The NOX budget for this 

project is established at 1.0 tons of NOX per summer day for the 

maintenance years 2009 and 2018. The summer day budget satisfies the 

requirements in 40 CFR § 93.158(a)(5)(i)(A), criteria for determining 
- 21 - 

conformity of general federal actions. The budget for 2009 will apply to 

emissions produced by the project that occur during calendar years prior to 

2018. The budget for 2018 will cover emissions that are produced by the 

project in calendar years 2018 and beyond. Section 175A(b) of the Clean 

Air Act requires DEP to submit a second 10-year maintenance plan 

8 years after redesignation of the area as attainment, which would be 2015. 

This maintenance plan would show maintenance of the ozone standard for 

the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area until 2028 and would include interim 

emission inventories for years up to and including 2028. 

The summer day emissions budget corresponds to an annual emissions cap 

that does not exceed 201.0 tons of NOX per calendar year. The 201.0 tons 

of NOX represents 120 percent of the value of the project’s peak emissions 

for a calendar year. The 20 percent emissions that are added to the budget 

that go beyond the estimated emissions for the project should allow the 

project to proceed in the event of changes in scheduling or small changes 

in the scope of the project. If the annual emissions cap is exceeded, the 

Nuclear Regulatory Commission or other agency taking action with 

respect to this project could be responsible for developing emission 

mitigation projects or obtaining emission offsets. Finally, any emission 

reduction obtained from mitigation measures or emissions offsets need to 

be made in accordance to the offset ratios and scheduling requirements per 

40 CFR § 93.163. 

See Volume II: Technical Support Document for more details of the 

emission estimation methodology for Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant 

project.

2.4.2. General Conformity Budget for the Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant 

Project 

Table 9: General Conformity Budget for Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant 

Calendar Year Pollutant 

NOX

2009 1.0 tons/summer day (201 tons/year) 

2018 1.0 tons/summer day (201 tons/year) 

2.5 Highway Source Category Emissions 

2.5.1. Control Measures 

Assumptions for vehicle emission standards have not been changed 

significantly in the modeled analysis from when DEP submitted the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan to EPA. Pennsylvania 

began implementation of California emission standards, which are 
- 22 - 

incorporated by reference in Pennsylvania regulations, in 2005 for dieselpowered heavy-duty trucks, and in 2008 for passenger cars and light-duty 

trucks. 

In January 2012, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved 

significant revisions to its regulations for criteria pollutant and greenhouse 

gas emissions from passenger cars, light-duty trucks and medium-duty 

vehicles. The amendments, referred to as LEV III, were approved by 

California’s Office of Administrative Law (OAL) on August 7, 2012, and 

will become effective in model year (MY) 2015 for criteria pollutants and 

in MY 2017 for greenhouse gases. The requirements were automatically 

incorporated by reference as part of the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles 

Program, to the extent the amendments apply to Pennsylvania’s program, 

under 25 Pa. Code § 126.411. 

On August 28, 2012, the EPA and the U.S. Department of Transportation’s 

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a joint 

Final Rulemaking to extend the National Program of harmonized 

greenhouse gas and fuel economy standards to MYs 2017-2025 passenger 

vehicles. On May 21, 2013, the EPA proposed emission standards for 

MYs 2017-2025 light duty, medium duty, and some heavy duty vehicles, 

referred to as Tier 3 emission standards, as well as sulfur content standards 

for fuel in a proposed rulemaking (78 FR 29816). 

The mobile source modeling for this proposed SIP revision was completed 

prior to the publication of the proposed Tier 3 standards, and, as a result, 

the impact of the proposed standards was not included in the modeling. 

The California LEV III rulemaking, the EPA-NHTSA National Program 

Final Rulemaking, and the EPA Tier III Proposed Rulemaking have not 

been analyzed as to their effect on future year emission estimates of NOX

in this proposed SIP revision. However, it is reasonable to assume that 

NOX and VOC emissions will decrease as these vehicles replace older 

vehicles during fleet turnover in Pennsylvania and the rest of the country. 

2.5.2. Growth Estimates 

Overall emissions from highway vehicles will continue to decrease as new 

vehicles take the place of older vehicles during normal fleet turnover. 

There are a variety of different reasons for this continued decrease. Fleet 

turnover is the greatest driver in lowering emissions from highway 

vehicles. Fleet turnover has been slower than forecast in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. This is, in part, a result 

of the recent recession and its lingering effects. Other factors have some 

impact on emissions from the highway source category, such as changes in 

fleet age, vehicle miles traveled, and the fleet mix of vehicles. The fleet 

age is increasing as people operate their vehicles for a longer period of 
- 23 - 

time. This will reduce the rate of fleet turnover and the reductions 

expected in emissions. Also, nationally, there was a slight decline in 

VMT during the recession. The percentage of vehicles in Pennsylvania 

that are light-duty trucks is also shrinking. Consumers are purchasing 

more passenger cars than light-duty trucks. Passenger cars tend to have 

lower emissions. 

Both NOX emission estimates in this proposed SIP revision were 

developed using MOVES2010a and the latest planning assumptions. 

Emissions have been estimated for the 2004 (attainment year), 2009 

(interim year) and 2018 (maintenance year). The MOBILE6.2 emission 

estimates used in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Plan have been 

included in Table 10 to illustrate relative changes in emissions. 

Table 10: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Estimates Using 

MOVES2010a for the Entire Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions 

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018 

VOC 31.6 23.3 14.3 N/A N/A N/A 

NOX 66.1 46.9 21.6 77.0 57.3 28.5 

Table 10 shows that the MOVES model estimates NOX emissions in 2009 

and 2018 exceed the MOBILE6.2-derived emissions estimates in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. This could cause 

transportation planning emissions estimates using MOVES to exceed the 

MVEBs. The updated NOX MVEBs provided in Table 11 will help ensure 

that the MPO and RPOs in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area can 

demonstrate transportation conformity using MOVES2010a, while the 

emissions estimates still demonstrate that the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

demonstrates attainment with, and continued maintenance of the 1997 

8-hour ozone NAAQS. 

2.5.3. Mobile Source Category Conclusion 

The proposed SIP revision includes revised NOX MVEBs for the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area using updated highway vehicle emissions 

estimates derived from MOVES. Appendix C in this proposed SIP 

revision replaces the corresponding sections of the original Appendix C in 

the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan. Appendix C in this 

proposed SIP revision describes the highway modeling methodology 

necessary to produce accurate emission estimates from the MOVES 

model. 
- 24 - 

3. SAFETY MARGINS 

A safety margin is the amount of emissions by which the total projected emissions from 

all sources of a given pollutant are less than the total emissions that would satisfy the 

applicable requirement for reasonable further progress, attainment, or maintenance 

(40 CFR 93.101). Table 3 shows that the emissions in the maintenance years, even when 

using the conservative emission estimates in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan, for point, area and nonroad sectors, provide a significant safety 

margin potential for continued maintenance of the maintenance of the 1997 8-hour ozone 

NAAQS. 

Therefore, a portion of those safety margins is being allocated to transportation projects 

(See Tables 2a, 2b, and 2c) to help ensure that any future planning assumption updates 

will not negatively impact the area’s ability to demonstrate transportation conformity. 

Adequate transportation safety margins will also defer the need for future SIP revisions, 

where the purpose of the SIP revision is only to update numbers and not to document any 

actual emissions reductions to the atmosphere. 

To help ensure that the transportation conformity process is not needlessly delayed, a 

2.0 tons/summer day safety margin for NOX has been applied to the MVEBs in 2009 and 

a 2.0 tons/summer day safety margin for NOX has been applied to the MVEB in 2018. 

The safety margin is for the entire Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area, which contains three 

MPOs and RPOs: the Scranton Wilkes-Barre MPO, the Northern Tier RPO, and the 

Northeast Pennsylvania Alliance (NEPA) MPO. The safety margins are uniformly 

distributed among these MPOs and RPOs based on the percentage of highway emissions 

that each MPO or RPO contributes to the area total. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre MPO 

contributes 70 percent of emissions to the maintenance area, the Northern Tier RPO 

contributes 25 percent of the emissions and the NEPA RPO contributes 5 percent. All 

indications are that the 2009 and 2018 emission estimates made for point, area and 

nonroad sources in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan are higher than 

the actual emissions for 2009 and revised estimates for 2018 in this SIP revision. Table 3 

quantitatively shows that these safety margins will continue to allow the area to remain 

well below the 2004 attainment year emissions inventory cap, thereby ensuring that 

future air quality will continue to meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS. 

4. MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGETS FOR TRANSPORTATION 

CONFORMITY 

The DEP proposes to establish budgets for highway emissions in order to ensure that 

transportation emissions do not impede clean air goals in the next decade and beyond. 

The MVEBs of NOX are estimated using the MOVES2010a Model while VOC emissions 

are identical to those included in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Plan. The 

information in Table 11, once EPA approves it for the purposes of transportation 

conformity, will establish MVEBs for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area. The MVEBs are 

exhibited for the MPO and RPOs in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area.
- 25 - 

Table 11: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets 

Metropolitan Planning 

Organization Counties Calendar Year 

Pollutant 

NOX VOC 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

MPO 

Lackawanna, 

Luzerne 2009 42.67 tons/summer day 

38,710 kg/summer day 

17.99 tons/summer day 

16,320 kg/summer day 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

MPO 

Lackawanna, 

Luzerne 2018 21.90 tons/summer day 

19,867 kg/summer day 

11.80 tons/summer day 

10,704 kg/summer day 

Northeastern 

Pennsylvania Alliance 

RPO 

Monroe 2009 14.10 tons/summer day 

12,791 kg/summer day 

6.19 tons/summer day 

5,615 kg/summer day 

Northeastern 

Pennsylvania Alliance 

RPO 

Monroe 2018 7.10 tons/summer day 

6,441 kg/summer day 

 4.64 tons/summer day 

4,209 kg/summer day 

Northern Tier RPO Wyoming 2009 2.50 tons/summer day 

2,268 kg/summer day 

0.99 tons/summer day 

898 kg/summer/day 

Northern Tier RPO Wyoming 2018 1.60 tons/summer day 

1,452 kg/summer day 

0.54 tons/summer day 

489 kg/summer day 

5. CONCLUSION 

By examining actual and projected emissions, increased controls for all emissions 

categories, and evidence that actual emissions growth for point source, area source, and 

nonroad source categories has been less than the projected emissions growth in the 

approved Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan, DEP has shown that the 

conclusion in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan that the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area will continue to attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS 

remains valid, after updating the highway emissions estimates using the new EPAapproved MOVES model. Updating NOX emissions in the MVEB will not negatively 

affect the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area’s ability to maintain the 1997 ozone NAAQS. In 

this proposed SIP revision, the DEP has updated emissions of NOX and growth factors 

for NOX that were included in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan for 

point, area, and highway sources. Emissions of nonroad sources were not updated 

because the growth in emissions for those sources was not updated because growth in 

emissions for those sources decreased or were unaffected.
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 

FINAL 

VOLUME II: Technical Support Document 

State Implementation Plan Revision: NOX Motor 

Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the 

MOVES2010a Model; and General Conformity 

Budget for Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Eight-Hour Ozone 

Maintenance Area 

May 2014 

Bureau of Air Quality 

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection 

P.O. Box 8468 

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468 

717-787-9495

 
[This page intentionally left blank.] 
- i - 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

VOLUME II 

Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1

Point Source Category Emissions ....................................................................................................1

2009 Point Source Category Emissions ...............................................................................2

2018 Point Source Category Emissions ...............................................................................5

Area Source Category Emissions .....................................................................................................9

2009 Area Source Category Emissions................................................................................9

2018 Area Source Category Emissions..............................................................................10

Marcellus Shale Emissions ............................................................................................................13

Drilling Activity .................................................................................................................14

Current Compressor Engine Activity .................................................................................14

Gas Production in Wyoming County .................................................................................15

Figure 1: Actual and Projected Natural Gas Production (Jan. 2011 to Dec. 2018) ..........16

Future Compressor Engine Activity ..................................................................................16

Compressor Engine Emissions ..........................................................................................17

Well Drilling ......................................................................................................................18

Nonroad Source Category Emissions ............................................................................................20

Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant Emissions Budget for General Conformity ....................20

Highway Source Category Emissions ............................................................................................21

 
- ii - 

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- iii - 

TABLES 

Table 1: Point Source Emissions for 2009 - SIP Estimated versus Actual .....................................2

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NOX and VOC Point Source Inventory for the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source ............................................2

Table 3: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan Emission Estimates of Point 

Sources for 2018 ..............................................................................................................................6

Table 4: Revised Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan Emissions Estimates 

of Point Sources for 2018 (Derived from MARAMA 2007 Baseline and 2020 Projected 

Inventories) ......................................................................................................................................6

Table 5: MARAMA 2007 Annual Baseline and 2018 Projected NOX Point Source 

Inventories for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source ..............7

Table 6: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Area Relative to Projected Growth in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

Maintenance Plan (2002-2009) ......................................................................................................10

Tables 7a, b, c, d: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Area Relative to the Projected Growth in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

Maintenance Plan (2009-2018) ......................................................................................................11

Table 7a: Lackawanna County Portion of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Area ..............................................................................................................11

Table 7b: Luzerne County Portion of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Area ..............................................................................................................12

Table 7c: Monroe County Portion of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Area ..............................................................................................................12

Table 7d: Wyoming County Portion of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Area ..............................................................................................................13

Table 8: Actual and Projected Well Production in Wyoming County ..........................................15

Table 9: 2013 NOX Emissions of Operating Compressor Engines and Turbines Used for 

Marcellus Shale Natural Gas in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area .................................................17

Table 10: Projected 2018 NOX Emissions from Compressor Engines and Turbines Used 

for Marcellus Shale Natural Gas in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area ...........................................18

Table 11: Number of Active Marcellus Shale Wells in Wyoming County ..................................18

Table 12: Reported 2011 Emissions Due to Marcellus Shale Drilling Activity in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area ..........................................................................................................19

Table 13: 2018 Emissions for Drilling Activity in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area ...................19

Table 14: NOX Emissions Related to Marcellus Shale Activity in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area ..........................................................................................................19

Table 15: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a Compared to 

Mobile 6.2 (Tons/Day) ...................................................................................................................22

 
- iv - 

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- 1 - 

INTRODUCTION 

This Technical Support Document provides detailed information on the categories of point, area, 

nonroad, and highway sources of oxides of nitrogen (NOX) estimates and assumptions. Data 

shown in this document were used in the EPA-approved State Implementation Plan Revision: 

Maintenance Plan and Base Year Inventory - Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Eight-Hour Ozone 

Nonattainment Area, which is hereafter referred to as the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. That data, along with other data and assumptions outlined in this Technical 

Support Document, are also used in the proposed State Implementation Plan (SIP) revision to the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan accompanying this document, entitled, “State 

Implementation Plan Revision: NOX Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the 

MOVES2010a Model; and General Conformity Budget for Bell Bend Nuclear Power 

Plant - Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area for the 1997 Ozone 

National Ambient Air Quality Standards,” which is hereafter referred to as the Scranton/WilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan revision. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan 

revision demonstrates that replacing highway emissions estimates using the MOVES Model 

instead of the Mobile6 Model to generate emissions estimates will not cause emissions from all 

sources in the maintenance year to exceed all emissions in the attainment year. This Technical 

Support Document will describe how emission estimates and emission growth rates that were 

used in both the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan and the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Plan revision were developed for all source categories (point, area, nonroad, 

and highway). 

POINT SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS 

Point source emissions include emissions from large commercial, institutional, and industrial 

facilities, such as chemical manufacturing facilities, large waste disposal sites, and large heating 

and electric generating units (EGUs). Emission projections used in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Plan were prepared for the point source sector for 11 states, including 

Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia, for the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management 

Association (MARAMA) by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc. Future year projections were 

developed by MACTEC so that states could use the projections as inventories in their SIPs. 

Estimates were prepared for years 2009 and 2018, and took into consideration both growth in 

economic activity and additional controls. 

For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future for all of the states’ ozone maintenance 

plans, the point source inventory of emissions is divided into two subsectors - the EGU sector 

and the non-EGU sector. Different projection methods were used for those two sectors. The 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area has a few EGU emission sources. For the EGU sector, the 

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU) effort used the Integrating Planning 

Model (IPM) to project future electric generation, as well as to calculate the impact of control 

programs on future emission levels. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area also contains many 

non-EGU point sources. For the non-EGU sector, growth factors were developed by using The 

United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Economic Growth Analysis System 

(EGAS) Version 5.0. U.S. Department of Energy fuel consumption forecasts were used to 

replace default values for combustion sources in EGAS 5.0. Also, state-supplied population, 
- 2 - 

employment, and other emission projection data were used if either EGAS 5.0 values did not 

exist or if the state-supplied data was deemed better than values given by EGAS 5.0. 

2009 Point Source Category Emissions 

Table 1 gives totals of NOX emissions for both 2009 projected emissions in the Scranton/WilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan and the actual 2009 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area emissions 

reported to DEP after the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan was developed.1

 

Table 1 demonstrates that point source emissions in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan for 2009 were overestimated for NOX. Table 2 lists the actual 2009 NOX

emissions from the individual facilities in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area. The annual 

emissions were divided by 365 days in a year to obtain daily emissions. The reason why actual 

NOX emissions are as close to the emissions in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area Maintenance 

Plan is because emission reduction credits (ERC) were annotated in the maintenance plan, but 

ERC generated by several facilities in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area were not added into the 

original maintenance plan’s 2009 and 2018 inventories. ERC were included as line items in the 

emissions inventory (See Tables 2 and 5) for these emissions. 

Table 1: Point Source Emissions for 2009 - SIP Estimated versus Actual 

Emissions for 2009 NOX (Tons/Day) 

Emissions Estimated in Maintenance Plan 9.4 

Actual Emissions (Actual Reported Annual 

Emissions in Table 2 Divided by 365 days) 7.7 

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NOX and VOC Point Source Inventory for the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOX (Tons/Year) 

420690010 SCRANTON ARMY AMMUNITION 

PLANT 0.0 

420690010 GENERAL DYN OTS 

INC/SCRANTON 12.6 

420690022 PEI POWER CORP/ARCHBALD 22.1 

420690023 MACTAC INC/SCRANTON FAC 3.1 

420690029 GENTEX CORP/SIMPSON PROT 

CLOTHING 4.0 

420690032 CASCADES TISSUE GRP PA 

INC/RANSOM PLT 24.1 

420690041 COMMUNITY MEDICAL 

CTR/SCRANTON FACILITY 4.2 

420690092 MOSES TAYLOR HOSP/SCRANTON 3.0 

420690096 SANDVIK MATERIALS 

TECHNOLOGY/SCOTT TWP 45.9 

 

1

 Air Information Management System Submittal, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, 2009. 
- 3 - 

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOX (Tons/Year) 

420690101 PANEL PRINTS INC/OLD FORGE 0.5 

420690125 QUADRANT EPP LAUREL LINE 

MFG/SCRANTON 2.1 

420690201 ENV & RECYCLING SVC AMITY 

LDFL/TAYLOR 2.0 

420690205 PA DPW/CLARKS SUMMIT STATE 

HOSP 12.2 

420690214 

HAINES & 

KIBBLEHOUSE/DUNMORE 

MATERIALS 

2.0 

420690215 METKOTE LAMINATED 

PROD/TAYLOR PLT 0.0 

420690217 GENTEX OPTICS INC/SIMPSON 

NIGHTVISION 0.0 

420690533 ALLIANCE SANI LANDFILL 

INC/TAYLOR LDFL 42.8 

420690676 EUREKA STONE 

QUARRY/DALEVILLE 1.6 

420690678 CINRAM MFG LLC/OLYPHANT ---- 

Emission 

Reduction Credits 

CINRAM MFG LLC ---- 

420690686 METSO PAPER USA INC/CLARKS 

SUMMIT SVC CTR ---- 

420690722 KEYSTONE SANI LDFL 

INC/DUNMORE 6.5 

420690765 REG HOSP OF 

SCRANTON/SCRANTON 4.7 

420692039 SHAW ENV & INFRASTRUCTURE 

INC/THROOP 30.7 

420692115 QUADRANT EPP KEYSER VLY 

MFG/SCRANTON 2.1 

420790001 ALLEGHENY ENERGY SUPPLY 

CO/HUNLOCK 4 3.4 

420790013 CERTAINTEED PROD 

CO/MOUNTAINTOP 71.2 

420790014 UGI DEVELOPMENT 

CO/HUNLOCK CREEK 711.5 

420790018 

Emission 

Reduction Credits 

TECHNEGLAS INC. 

784.9 

420790035 PA DPW/WHITE HAVEN CTR 29.7 

420790038 BEMIS CO INC/HAZLETON 0.0 

Emission 

Reduction Credits 

BEMIS CO INC --- 
- 4 - 

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOX (Tons/Year) 

420790053 WYOMING VALLEY SANI 

AUTH/HANOVER STP 4.1 

420790058 TRANSCONTINENTAL GAS/BEAR 

CREEK STA 515 61.1 

420790059 HERSHEY FOODS 

CORP/HAZLETON PLT 17.5 

420790060 SCHOTT NORTH AMER 

INC/DURYEA 24.3 

420790062 FAIRCHILD SEMICONDUCTOR 

CORP/WRIGHT TWP 1.7 

420790064 SILGAN WHITE CAP/HAZLETON 

PLT 3.3 

420790066 OFFSET PAPERBACK 

MFG/DALLAS 0.7 

420790067 OROGRAIN BAKERIES MFG 

INC/VALMONT 4.0 

420790068 BERWICK OFFRAY LLC/BERWICK 1.0 

420790069 KAPPA GRAPHICS/HUGHESTOWN 0.4 

420790076 BARLETTA MATERIALS & 

CONST/NESCOPECK 8.4 

420790079 GULF OIL LTD PARTNER/DUPONT 

TERM --- 

420790113 PENNSY SUPPLY INC/DORRANCE 

ASPHALT PLT 4.0 

420790122 SEALY MATTRESS 

MOUNTAINTOP/WRIGHT TWP 1.4 

420790132 DUPONT TERM CORP/DUPONT 

TERMINALS 0.1 

420790202 HAZLETON GEN LLC/HAZLE TWP 1.2 

420790267 PIKES CREEK ASPHALT/LEHMAN 5.0 

420790317 HAZLETON MATERIALS ASPHALT 

PLT/FOSTER TWP 7.2 

420790407 CASCADES TISSUE GROUP PA 

INC/PITTSTON --- 

420790597 PPL MARTINS CREEK 

LLC/HARWOOD CTS 0.7 

420790616 SUNOCO PARTNERS MKT & TERM 

LP/KINGSTON TERM 2.1 

420790798 PPL MARTINS CREEK 

LLC/JENKINS CTG 0.5 

420790799 PPL SUSQUEHANNA 

LLC/SUSQUEHANNA SES 22.1 

420790800 DUPONT EAST TERM/PITTSTON 0.1 
- 5 - 

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NOX (Tons/Year) 

420791255 WILKES BARRE HOSP CO 

LLC/WILKES BARRE 4.7 

420792033 AMER ASPHALT PAVING/CHASE 

PLT 3.8 

420792061 WILKES BARRE 

MATERIALS/PLAINS PLT 7.6 

420792063 SVC MFG INC/A DIV OF PEPSI CO, 

INC 3.3 

420890008 US DEPT DEFENSE/TOBYHANNA 

ARMY DEPOT 17.9 

420890013 HAINES & KIBBLEHOUSE/LOCUST 

RIDGE 7.3 

420890018 ROCK TENN CO/DELAWARE 

WATER GAP 6.9 

420890539 SANOFI PASTEUR/SWIFTWATER 59.0 

420890795 GENON REMA LLC/SHAWNEE 1.5 

421310009 PROCTER & GAMBLE PAPER 

PROD CO/MEHOOPANY 610.8 

Emission 

Reduction Credits 

PROCTER & GAMBLE PAPER 

PROD CO 91.1 

421310682 DEER PARK LUMBER/DEER PARK 

MFG PLT 4.7 

 Total Actual Annual Emissions 2,816.4 

2018 Point Source Category Emissions 

Ideally, emissions growth could be compared between estimates in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Plan and recently revised assumptions for emissions growth. Both sets of 

assumptions are valid because the EPA requires that assumptions in growth be updated with each 

revision to the maintenance plan. If the revised assumptions for growth are less than what was 

assumed in the original maintenance plan, then it can be easily shown that emissions in the 

maintenance years are still below the emissions in the attainment year. However, when revised 

growth in some types of point sources is higher, and in some types of point sources is lower, 

emissions growth cannot be compared to show that the new assumptions still maintain the ozone 

standard. Then, a projected emissions inventory needs to be developed and compared. For the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area, a projected inventory for the maintenance year 2018 needed to be 

developed to show maintenance with the standard. 

The 2018 point source inventory for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan was 

developed for MARAMA by MACTEC. More recently, a projected emissions inventory of all 

emission source categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway) was developed by MARAMA 

and MACTEC for a regional modeling effort. Table 3 and Table 4 can be compared to show 

differences in total emissions of NOX produced by point sources in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Area with the recently developed inventories. In 2012, MARAMA developed inventories for the 
- 6 - 

baseline year of 2007 and projected years of 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025.2

 The difference in the 

inventory years for the inventory used in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan 

and new MARAMA/MACTEC inventory development efforts did not allow for easy comparison 

of growth factors used for projecting emissions. Projected emissions in 2018 were estimated for 

the maintenance plan revisions using straight-line interpolation between the 2007 MARAMA 

baseline inventory and the 2020 MARAMA projected year inventory using the following 

equation: 

2018 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + ((2020 Emissions – 2007 emissions) *(2018-2007) ÷ 

(2020 - 2007)) + Available Emission Reduction Credits 

Emission projections of non-EGU point sources in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan were overestimated for the year 2018 when compared to newer emissions data 

derived by MARAMA (See Tables 3 and 4). 

Table 3: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan 

Emission Estimates of Point Sources for 2018 

Year NOX Emissions 

(tons/year) 

NOX Emissions 

(tons/day) 

2018 3956.7 10.5 

Table 4: Revised Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan Emissions 

Estimates of Point Sources for 2018 

(Derived from MARAMA 2007 Baseline and 2020 Projected Inventories) 

Year NOX Emissions 

(tons/year) 

NOX Emissions 

(tons/day) 

2007 (Baseline) 1930.8 5.3 

2020 (Projected) 1572.1 4.3 

2018 (Interpolated) + 

Emission Reduction Credits) 2124.4 5.8 

 

2

 MARAMA 2007, 2017, and 2020 Baseline and Projected Inventories, Version 3, Julie McDill, Mid-Atlantic 

Regional Management Association, Towson, MD, January 2012. 
- 7 - 

Table 5 shows actual 2007 and projected 2020 facility emissions of NOX for non-EGU point 

source in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area. 

Table 5: MARAMA 2007 Annual Baseline and 2018 Projected NOX Point Source 

Inventories for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 

EPA AFS 

Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline NOX Emissions

2020 Projected 

NOX Emissions

420690010 SCRANTON ARMY 

AMMUNITION PLANT 15.0 17.1 

420690022 PEI POWER CORP/ARCHBALD 13.6 13.6 

420690023 MACTAC INC/SCRANTON FAC 3.8 3.9 

420690029 GENTEX CORP/SIMPSON PROT 

CLOTHING 4.3 6.2 

420690032 CASCADES TISSUE GRP PA 

INC/RANSOM PLT 32.6 37.0 

420690041 COMMUNITY MEDICAL 

CTR/SCRANTON FACILITY 0.5 0.5 

420690096 SANDVIK MATERIALS 

TECHNOLOGY/SCOTT TWP 46.7 49.0 

420690101 PANEL PRINTS INC/OLD FORGE 0.4 0.4 

420690125 QUADRANT EPP LAUREL LINE 

MFG/SCRANTON 2.5 2.8 

420690201 ENV & RECYCLING SVC AMITY 

LDFL/TAYLOR 1.7 1.8 

420690205 PA DPW/CLARKS SUMMIT 

STATE HOSP 12.5 12.8 

420690533 ALLIANCE SANI LANDFILL 

INC/TAYLOR LDFL 63.7 67.4 

420690676 EUREKA STONE 

QUARRY/DALEVILLE 1.6 2.0 

420690686 METSO PAPER USA INC/CLARKS 

SUMMIT SVC CTR 0.5 0.7 

420690722 KEYSTONE SANI LDFL 

INC/DUNMORE 5.8 6.2 

420690765 REG HOSP OF SCRANTON 4.7 5.2 

420692039 SHAW ENV & INFRASTRUCTURE 

INC/THROOP 36.6 32.0 

420790001 

ALLEGHENY ENERGY SUPPLY 

CO/HUNLOCK 4 (NEW OWNERS 

ARE FIRST ENERGY) 

14.6 20.7 

420790013 CERTAINTEED PROD 

CO/MOUNTAINTOP 94.0 60.4 

420790014 UGI DEVELOPMENT 

CO/HUNLOCK CREEK 558.3 50.0 

420790035 PA DPW/WHITE HAVEN CTR 26.3 27.2 
- 8 - 

EPA AFS 

Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline NOX Emissions

2020 Projected 

NOX Emissions

420790053 WYOMING VALLEY SANI 

AUTH/HANOVER STP 1.8 1.8 

420790058 TRANSCONTINENTAL 

GAS/BEAR CREEK STA 515 53.4 75.9 

420790059 HERSHEY FOODS 

CORP/HAZLETON PLT 9.2 9.3 

420790060 SCHOTT NORTH AMER 

INC/DURYEA 158.2 59.0 

420790062 FAIRCHILD SEMICONDUCTOR 

CORP/WRIGHT TWP 1.8 2.3 

420790064 SILGAN WHITE CAP/HAZLETON 

PLT 1.6 1.8 

420790066 OFFSET PAPERBACK 

MFG/DALLAS 0.5 0.7 

420790067 OROGRAIN BAKERIES MFG 

INC/VALMONT 7.6 8.5 

420790068 BERWICK OFFRAY 

LLC/BERWICK 0.7 0.8 

420790069 KAPPA 

GRAPHICS/HUGHESTOWN 0.6 0.6 

420790113 PENNSY SUPPLY 

INC/DORRANCE ASPHALT PLT 8.2 8.2 

420790202 HAZLETON GEN LLC/HAZLE 

TWP 8.4 11.5 

420790597 PPL MARTINS CREEK 

LLC/HARWOOD CTS 4.3 5.4 

420790616 SUNOCO PARTNERS MKT & 

TERM LP/KINGSTON TERM 1.7 1.9 

420790798 PPL MARTINS CREEK 

LLC/JENKINS CTG 1.0 1.2 

420790799 PPL SUSQUEHANNA 

LLC/SUSQUEHANNA SES 22.1 27.5 

420791255 WILKES BARRE HOSP CO 

LLC/WILKES BARRE 3.6 5.0 

420792061 WILKES BARRE 

MATERIALS/PLAINS PLT 9.9 9.9 

420890008 US DEPT DEFENSE/TOBYHANNA 

ARMY DEPOT 18.7 20.3 

420890539 SANOFI PASTEUR/SWIFTWATER 32.6 32.6 

421310009 PROCTER & GAMBLE PAPER 

PROD CO/MEHOOPANY 639.7 864.9 

421310682 DEER PARK LUMBER/DEER 

PARK MFG PLT 5.5 6.1 

Subtotal of NOX Emissions 1930.8 1,572.1 
- 9 - 

EPA AFS 

Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline NOX Emissions

2020 Projected 

NOX Emissions

420790014 

EMISSION 

REDUCTION 

CREDITS 

(PLANNED) 

UGI DEVELOPMENT 

CO/HUNLOCK CREEK 0.0 406.0 

421310009 

EMISSION 

REDUCTION 

CREDITS 

PROCTER & GAMBLE PAPER 

PROD CO 0.0 91.1 

Total NOX Emissions with Emission 

Reduction Credits 1930.8 2,069.2 

AREA SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS 

The area source category includes emissions from sources such as surface coating, solvent use, 

residential and commercial heating, and other sources that emit small amounts of emissions on a 

per use basis but have a large number of users. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance 

Plan relied on a number of socioeconomic indicators to estimate emissions, and projections of 

emissions, such as: population, industrial employment, employment, and industry specific 

growth factors. In the maintenance plan, a baseline area source inventory of 2002 was grown 

using socioeconomic factors of expected population and employment growth. For some sources, 

such as coal-, distillate-, or natural gas-fired boilers, data from the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook 

or the EGAS model was used to predict future growth and emissions. For other area source 

categories, state-specific industry growth estimates supplied by the DEP were used. 

2009 Area Source Category Emissions 

Table 6 shows a recent estimate of actual socioeconomic indicators. Actual growth that occurred 

from 2002 to 2009 was derived from data published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, 

Bureau of Census,3,4, 5and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.6 

The actual growth is compared side-by-side with the predicted growth from the Scranton/WilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan overpredicted growth for most area sources for the 2002 to 2009 timeframe. In one category in the 

 

3

 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Population Estimates Program," T1. Population Estimates 

data Set: 2008 Population Estimates, available from http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2009-01.html, 

accessed October 2011. 

4

 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Housing Unit Estimates, Data Set 2002 and 2009 

Population Estimates, Note: For information on errors stemming from model error, sampling error, and nonsampling error, see: http://www.census.gov/popest/topics/methodology, accessed October 2011. 5

 Employee and establishment numbers: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 

http://factfinder.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html. 6

 Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, State Energy Data System - Consumption, 

Physical Units, 1960-2006, available from: http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/sedsstates.cfm?q_state_a=PA&q_state=Pennsylvania. 
- 10 - 

maintenance plan, actual growth was slightly higher than predicted growth: total natural gas 

consumption compared to natural gas consumption in boilers. 

Table 6: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to Projected Growth in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area Maintenance Plan (2002-2009) 

Surrogate Indicator for Growth Actual 

Use 2002 

Actual Use 

2009 

Actual 

Growth 

2002-2009 

Maintenance 

Plan Growth 

(2002-2009) 

Population 700,767 715,809 1.0215 *1.0400 

Total Employees 266,063 275,621 1.0359 **1.0586 

Total Coal Consumption (short tons) 501,110 341,022 0.6805 1.0481 

Total Natural Gas Consumption 

(million cubic ft.) 29,205 32,615 1.1167 --- 

Natural Gas Boilers --- --- --- 1.0106 

Natural Gas, Residential --- --- --- 1.0841 

Total Distillate Oil Consumption 

(barrels) 3,179,508 3,249,696 1.0221 --- 

Distillate Oil, Commercial --- --- --- 1.0731 

Distillate Oil, Residential --- --- --- 1.0025 

* Area’s growth rate is weighted by 2002 population of Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, and Wyoming Counties. 

** Area’s growth rate is weighted by 2002 total employment in Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, and Wyoming 

Counties.

2018 Area Source Category Emissions 

The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan estimated area source sector growth using 

a baseline inventory from 2002 and growing emissions to the maintenance years of 2009 and 

2018, based on the growth of socioeconomic activity.7 Data used to revise growth estimates 

were obtained from the same MARAMA inventory effort described in the point source section 

above. The effort used a baseline inventory of 2007 and maintenance year inventories of 2017, 

2020, and 2025.8

 Just as in the point source emissions, these inventory years made a direct 

comparison of emissions and growth rates difficult because the MARAMA baseline years and 

projected inventory years were too dissimilar from what was included in the Scranton/WilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan. Therefore, the projected emissions growth from 2009 to 2018 

was determined through linear interpolation by using emission estimates for 2007 and 2020 from 

the new MARAMA inventory. Projected growth between 2009 and 2018 in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan was estimated using the 2009 and 2018 

emission estimates. In Table 7, the revised growth projections are given. 

 

7

 State Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance Plan and Base Year Inventory Scranton/Wilkes-Barre EightHour Ozone Nonattainment Area, September 2006, Appendix B-1, Area Source Methodology, p. 2. 

8

 Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA), Technical Support Document for the 

Development of the 2017/2020 Emissions Inventories for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast/MidAtlantic Region, Version 3.3, January 23, 2012, MARAMA Contract Agreement FY2011-004. 
- 11 - 

The growth rate predicted in the maintenance plan from 2009 to 2018 is derived by the following 

formula: 

Growth Factor (2009-2018) = ((Growth Factor (2002-2018) – Growth Factor (2002-2009)) 

÷ Growth Factor (2002-2009)) + 1 

A straight line interpolation between the 2007 MARAMA baseline emissions and the 2020 

MARAMA projected emissions was used to calculate emissions for the years 2009 and 2018. 

From these interpolated emissions (See equations 1 and 2 below), the projected growth between 

2009 and 2018 was calculated (See equation 3 below). Fossil fuel combustion surrogates in 

Table 7 represent most emissions of NOX, while “population” and “employees” represent the 

best surrogates for many source categories that produce VOC emissions. The surrogates for 

growth shown in Table 7 are used to predict revised growth for a large majority of emissions 

from area source categories in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan revision. 

(1) 2009 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + (2020 Emissions – 2007 Emissions) * 

((2009 – 2007) ÷ (2020-2007)) 

(2) 2018 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + (2020 Emissions – 2007 Emissions) * 

((2018 – 2007) ÷ (2020-2007)) 

(3) Emissions Growth (2009-2018) = ((2018 Emission – 2009 Emissions) ÷ 2009 Emissions) + 1 

Tables 7a, b, c, d: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to the Projected Growth in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area Maintenance Plan (2009-2018) 

Table 7a: Lackawanna County Portion of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Area 

Indicator for Growth 

Revised Growth In 

MARAMA Inventory 

(2009-2018) 

Maintenance Plan 

Growth (2009-2018) 

Population 0.9735 0.9911 

Employees 1.0290* 1.0293 

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9136 0.9983 

Anthracite Coal, Commercial 1.0230 0.9865 

All Combustor Types, 

Distillate Oil, Residential 0.8226 0.9598 

Boilers and Internal Combustion 

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 1.0687 1.0521 

Combustor Types, Natural Gas, 

Residential 1.0188 1.0181 

* The MARAMA inventory estimated growth in employment based on statewide North American Industry 

Classification System codes. NAICS codes proved too cumbersome to establish employment growth on the 

county level. Employment growth in Table 7a was derived from U.S. Census Bureau industrial employment 

data and was not developed by MARAMA. 
- 12 - 

Table 7b: Luzerne County Portion of the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Area 

Indicator for Growth 

Revised Growth In 

MARAMA Inventory 

(2009-2018) 

Maintenance Plan 

Growth (2009-2018) 

Population 0.9696 0.9981 

Employees 1.0060* 1.0293 

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9136 0.9983 

Anthracite Coal, Commercial 1.0230 0.9865 

All Combustor Types, 

Distillate Oil, Residential 0.8226 0.9598 

Boilers and Internal Combustion 

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 1.0687 1.0521 

Combustor Types, Natural Gas, 

Residential 1.0188 1.0181 

* The MARAMA inventory estimated growth in employment based on statewide North American Industry 

Classification System codes. NAICS codes proved too cumbersome to establish employment growth on the 

county level. Employment growth in Table 7b was derived from U.S. Census Bureau industrial employment 

data and was not developed by MARAMA. 

Table 7c: Monroe County Portion of the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Area 

Indicator for Growth 

Revised Growth In 

MARAMA Inventory 

(2009-2018) 

Maintenance Plan 

Growth (2009-2018) 

Population 1.1841 1.1934 

Employees 1.0613* 1.2077 

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9136 0.9983 

Anthracite Coal, Commercial 1.0230 0.9865 

All Combustor Types, 

Distillate Oil, Residential 0.8226 0.9598 

Boilers and Internal Combustion 

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 1.0687 1.0521 

Combustor Types, Natural Gas, 

Residential 1.0188 1.0181 

* The MARAMA inventory estimated growth in employment based on statewide North American Industry 

Classification System codes. NAICS codes proved too cumbersome to establish employment growth on the 

county level. Employment growth in Table 7c was derived from U.S. Census Bureau industrial employment 

data and was not developed by MARAMA. 
- 13 - 

Table 7d: Wyoming County Portion of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 

Ozone Maintenance Area 

Indicator for Growth 

Revised Growth In 

MARAMA Inventory 

(2009-2018) 

Maintenance Plan 

Growth (2009-2018) 

Population 1.0124 1.1243 

Employees 0.8969* 1.0293 

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9799 0.9983 

Anthracite Coal, Commercial 1.0230 0.9865 

All Combustor Types, 

Distillate Oil, Residential 0.8226 0.9598 

Boilers and Internal Combustion 

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 1.0687 1.0521 

Combustor Types, Natural Gas, 

Residential 1.0188 1.0181 

* The MARAMA inventory estimated growth in employment based on statewide North American Industry 

Classification System codes. NAICS codes proved too cumbersome to establish employment growth on the 

county level. Employment growth in Table 7d was derived from U.S. Census Bureau industrial employment 

data and was not developed by MARAMA. 

Tables 7a, 7b, 7c, and 7d show that assumptions in growth in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan are greater than new assumptions developed by the MARAMA inventory 

effort. 

It is safe to assume that, due to the severe economic downturn experienced from 2007 to 2009, 

employee growth does not approach what was predicted in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan in 2009 out to 2018. A few NOX emission sources relied on population and 

employment data to grow emissions. Population and employment show clearly that current 

projections are below what was projected in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance 

Plan. Emissions of NOX from area sources are dominated by fossil fuel combustion. While one 

category, commercial anthracite coal consumption, shows greater projected growth than what is 

in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Plan, it is a small source of emissions when compared 

to industrial coal consumption, which shows a lower projected growth than what is in the 

maintenance plan. As occurred from 2002 to 2009, updated projections of natural gas usage was 

greater than in the maintenance plan. The reduction in projections of industrial coal and 

residential heating oil will more than offset increases in projection of natural gas use. With the 

over prediction of growth indicators in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan, it 

follows that actual emissions of NOX will be less than what was needed in the maintenance plan 

to demonstrate maintenance of the 8-hour ozone standard. 

MARCELLUS SHALE EMISSIONS 

Since the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan was approved by EPA, Lackawanna 

and Wyoming Counties in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area have experienced some Marcellus 

Shale natural gas drilling activity. Marcellus Shale natural gas drilling activity did not exist in in 

the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area in 2004 and was minimal in 2009. Emissions of NOX increased 
- 14 - 

due to Marcellus Shale activity since the 2004 attainment year. The emissions are considered to 

be part of the area source sector. These area source emissions are produced by activities at the 

drill pad and compressor engines that pump natural gas through the gathering pipelines to a main 

pipeline. While it is easier to project emissions of drilling operations because DEP has actual 

emissions data submitted by gas exploration companies for that activity, it is more difficult to 

project emissions for compressor engines because they began operation in 2012. Therefore, DEP 

projected NOX emissions from an estimate of a 2013 potential to emit. 

Drilling Activity 

In 2011, the total Marcellus Shale well count in Wyoming and Lackawanna Counties was 101.9

 

These wells were drilled mostly over a three-year period. According to the Marcellus Shale 

Coalition, drilling activity has been forecasted to remain constant into the foreseeable future 

across Pennsylvania.10 In 2013, the well count in Wyoming and Lackawanna County was 177, 

which is consistent with a forecast of well drilling activity remaining constant. Approximately, 

35 wells are being drilled on average every year. Projecting this activity into the future means 

that about 300 wells may exist by 2018, which would mean projected growth in the number of 

wells of 200 percent. 

Current Compressor Engine Activity 

Compressor station engine activity is expected to increase as more wells are drilled and the 

pressure of existing wells diminishes. As pressures at the wellhead decrease, compressor station 

engine activity will increase in order to pump natural gas through the network of pipelines. In 

2011, natural gas companies did not report any emissions produced by compressor engines in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area. Compressor engines may not have been needed in 2011 because 

the pressures at the well were sufficient to transport Marcellus Shale natural gas to an existing 

main pipeline. In 2012, there were 27 permitted compressor engines in the Scranton/WilkesBarre Area. Fourteen of these compressor engines began operation by the end of 2013. 

In early 2013, the DEP issued a new general permit, General Permit BAQ-GPA/GP-5, Natural 

Gas Compression and/or Processing Facilities (GP-5), which among other requirements, lowers 

the emissions rate for natural gas compressor engines used in pumping natural gas. Table 9 

displays information received by DEP that describes compressor engine activity levels in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area. GP-5 will serve to limit emissions per horsepower because more 

compressors will be brought online under the more stringent GP-5 emission limits. 

Recent stack testing, which owners of compressor engines are required to complete annually and 

the results of which owners are required to submit to DEP, indicate that compressor engines in 

Wyoming County are operating below the GP-5 emissions limit of 0.5 grams of NOX per 

horsepower-hour. Emissions estimates of NOX for current compressor engines use the 

enforceable emission factor limits, which are 0.5, 2.0 or 0.17 (for natural gas turbines) 

grams/brake horsepower-hour. 

 

9

 Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection data submitted to DEP by gas producers, 2011 inventory. 

10 Information was gathered during a phone conversation between DEP staff from the Bureau of Air Quality and 

Marcellus Shale Coalition representatives, 2012. 
- 15 - 

Gas Production in Wyoming County 

Examination of well production data from 2011 to present indicates natural gas production is 

accelerating in Wyoming County as it is in most of the gas producing counties to the west and 

north of Wyoming County. This acceleration in gas production will increase emissions from 

compressor engines. The DEP has received semi-annual gas production reports from gas 

producers for the last three years. It is difficult to project with a large degree of certainty gas 

production five years from now based on the previous three years’ worth of data given all of the 

factors affecting production. Nevertheless, DEP based future gas production projections in 

Wyoming County on growth of gas production from 2011 to 2013 in the county. The projections 

are thought to be conservative (i.e. greater than what is likely to occur). It is important to note 

that emission from other source types, especially highway vehicles, have declined significantly 

in the Scranton Wilkes-Barre Area. Therefore, if conservative emission estimates for Marcellus 

Shale operations are added to the 2018 maintenance year emissions inventory, the emissions in 

the maintenance year will not exceed emissions that occurred in the attainment year. DEP will 

periodically check future gas production numbers against the projected gas production in the 

maintenance plan revision to ensure that the projected emissions were not underestimated. 

Table 8 displays actual and projected well production rates for Wyoming County. As stated 

previously, DEP expects that well drilling activity will remain constant for the immediate future 

and gas production should increase at a constant rate over the next several years as production 

has increased over the last three years. Semi-annual natural gas production increased from a 

minimum of 6 million thousand cubic feet (Mcf) to a maximum of 30 million Mcf between semiannual periods. In the most recent semi-annual reporting period, production increased by 

30 million Mcf over the previous reporting period. Over the last five reporting periods, the gas 

production increased on average by 17 million Mcf. A semi-annual growth in gas production of 

20 million Mcf was chosen to project gas production to the end of 2018. This growth projection 

is above the average, but takes into account the most recent growth in gas production which 

exceeded the 3-year average. Wyoming County is home to some of the most productive 

individual gas wells in the Marcellus Shale Region. Of course, at some point, natural gas 

production growth will diminish, but DEP has seen no evidence that growth in production will 

decrease before 2018. 

Table 8: Actual and Projected Well Production in Wyoming County 

Time Range Actual Well 

Production (Mcf) 

Projected Well 

Production (Mcf) 

January 2011- July 2011 4,236,563 

July 2011 - December 2011 10,230,910 

January 2012 - July 2012 28,817,674 

July 2012 - December 2012 37,415,081 

January 2013 - July 2013 60,129,107 

July 2013 - December 2013 90,939,699 

January 2014 - July 2014 110,000,000 

July 2014 - December 2014 130,000,000 
- 16 - 

Time Range Actual Well 

Production (Mcf) 

Projected Well 

Production (Mcf) 

January 2015 - July 2015 150,000,000 

July 2015 - December 2015 170,000,000 

January 2016 - July 2016 190,000,000 

July 2016 - December 2016 210,000,000 

January 2017 - July 2017 230,000,000 

July 2017 - December 2017 250,000,000 

January 2018 - July 2018 270,000,000 

July 2018 - December 2018 290,000,000 

Figure 1: Actual and Projected Natural Gas Production (Jan. 2011 to Dec. 2018) 

Future Compressor Engine Activity 

The amount of compressor engine horsepower needed to pump natural gas through a pipeline is 

assumed to be closely proportional to the growth rate in natural gas production. The build-out of 

compressor horsepower may slightly lag in responding to natural gas production because when a 

well is completed a compressor engine may not be needed at first to transport the gas to the main 

pipeline because ample pressure is available at the wellhead. The effect that the lag in the buildout of compressor engines has over estimating emissions diminishes as more natural gas wells 

are producing. In essence, the effect that the lag has on emission estimates vanishes. In order to 

estimate the growth rate in natural gas production in Wyoming County, the amount of projected 

annual natural gas production in 2018 was divided by the actual annual natural gas produced in 

2013 to obtain the growth that will occur in production between the end 2013 and the end 

of 2018. 

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

Mcf

Wyoming County Natural Gas Production

Actual Well Production

Projected Well Production
- 17 - 

Growth Rate in Gas Production (Wyoming County) = Projected 2018 annual gas production 

 Actual 2013 annual gas production 

 = 560,000,000 Mcf 

 150,000,000 Mcf 

 = 3.73 multiple or 273 percent 

The emission projection estimates for 2018 assume that current compressor engines operating 

under GP-5 and all future compressor engines will meet the 0.5 grams per horsepower 

enforceable standard. A few compressor engines are required to meet an enforceable standard of 

2.0 grams of NOX per brake horsepower-hour. DEP will conservatively estimate emissions 

using the 2.0 standard for those engines even though stack test results indicate that these engines 

were under the 0.5 grams per brake horsepower standard. 

Compressor Engine Emissions 

Compressor engine emissions were estimated for 2009 using accepted methods used in the 

EPA’s NONROAD Model. The equation for estimating emissions is given: 

Emissions = Number of Engines * Horsepower * LF * EF * Hours of Operation, where, LF 

is the load factor and EF is the emission factor. It is assumed that an engine will operate 

8,760 hours per year once it becomes operational. The emission factor is conservatively 

assumed to be the enforceable permit limit. 

Table 9: 2013 NOX Emissions of Operating Compressor Engines and Turbines 

Used for Marcellus Shale Natural Gas in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

County 

Number 

of 

Engines 

Engine 

Horsepower

Facility 

Horsepower 

Load 

Factor* 

NOX Emission 

Standard 

(grams/bhp-hr) 

Emissions 

(tons/year) 

Wyoming 4 1,380 5,520 0.85 2.0 90.5 

Wyoming 8 2,370 18,960 0.85 0.5 77.7 

Wyoming 

(Turbines) 2 7,801 15,602 0.85 0.17 21.8 

Totals 40,082 190.0 

* Load factor was taken from the NONROAD2008 Model for natural gas compressor engines. 
- 18 - 

Table 10: Projected 2018 NOX Emissions from Compressor Engines and Turbines 

Used for Marcellus Shale Natural Gas in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

County 

Number 

of 

Engines 

Engine 

Horsepower 

Total 

Horsepower 

Load 

Factor 

NOX Emission 

Standard 

(grams/bhp-hr) 

NOX 

Emissions 

(tons/year)

Wyoming 4 1,380 5,520 0.85 2.0 90.5 

Wyoming 85,791 0.85 0.5 351.8 

Wyoming 

(Turbines) 58,195 0.85 0.17 81.1 

Total Projected 2018 NOX Emissions 523.4 

* Total horsepower equals 2013 total horsepower multiplied by the growth in natural gas production (3.73) and 

subtracting out engine horsepower of four existing engines with an allowable limit of 2.0 grams/bhp-hr (new 

engines will be subject to the current GP-5 limit of 0.5 g/bhp-hr), and the total 2013 turbine horsepower multiplied 

by the growth in natural gas production (3.73) with an allowable limit of 0.17 grams/bhp-hr (projected turbine 

horsepower).

Total projected NOX emissions from compressor engines and turbines activity in Wyoming 

County are 523.4 tons for 2018 when the results of Table 10 are added. 

Well Drilling 

The number of wells drilled in Wyoming County has been inconsistent from year to year. Well 

drilling increased steadily from 2009 through 2011 and dipped in 2012. In 2013, the number of 

wells drilled increased to 2011 levels. Drilling emissions will be treated conservatively. We will 

conservatively assume that approximately 60 wells will be drilled per year in Wyoming County. 

Therefore, 2011 NOX emissions for well drilling will be nearly identical to those that will occur 

in 2018. 

Table 11: Number of Active Marcellus Shale Wells in Wyoming County 

Year Active Wells Drilled 

2009 1 

2010 23 

2011 63 

2012 14 

2013 66 

Total 167 
- 19 - 

Table 12: Reported 2011 Emissions Due to Marcellus Shale Drilling Activity 

in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

County SCC SCC Description Pollutant 2011 

(tons/year) 

2018 

(tons/year)

Wyoming 2310021500 

On-Shore Gas 

Production/Gas Well 

Completion - Flaring 

NOX 136.8 136.8 

Wyoming 2310000220 

Oil & Gas Expl & 

Prod/All 

Processes/Drill Rigs 

NOX 491.6 491.6 

Wyoming 2310021100 

On-Shore Gas 

Production/Gas Well 

Heaters 

NOX 4.7 4.7 

Lackawanna 2310000220 

Oil & Gas Expl & 

Prod/All 

Processes/Drill Rigs 

NOX 3.7 3.7 

Table 13: 2018 Emissions for Drilling Activity in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

County NOX (Tons/Year) 

Lackawanna 3.7 

Wyoming 633.1 

Total Drilling Emissions 636.1 

Table 14: NOX Emissions Related to Marcellus Shale Activity in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area 

County SCC* SCC Description 2009 2018 

NOX NOX

42069 2310000220 Oil & Gas Exploration/All Processes/Drill Rigs 0.0 3.7 

42131 2310000220 Oil & Gas Exploration/All Processes/Drill Rigs 0.0 491.6 

42131 2310020600 Oil & Gas Exploration Production/Natural Gas 

Compressor Engines and Turbines 0.0 523.4 

42131 2310021010 On-Shore Gas Production/Storage Tanks: 

Condensate 0.0 0.0 

42131 2310021100 On-Shore Gas Production/Gas Well Heaters 0.0 4.7 

42131 2310021310 On-Shore Gas Production/Gas Well Pneumatic 

Pumps 0.0 0.0 

42131 2310021500 On-Shore Gas Production/Gas Well Completion 0.0 136.8 

42131 2310021509 On-Shore Gas Production/Fugitives 0.0 0.0 

Annual Area Total 0.0 1160.2 

Daily Area Total 0.0 3.18*

* Annual emissions are divided by 365 days to obtain daily emissions. 
- 20 - 

NONROAD SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS 

Emissions from the nonroad category are produced by many different types of vehicles and 

equipment. The EPA’s NONROAD Model estimates emissions for over 200 types of 

equipment, engines and vehicles. Nonroad engines and vehicles can be used for such 

applications as construction, lawn and garden care, farming, and commercial and industrial 

applications. Emissions from three types of activities namely aircraft, locomotives, and 

commercial marine vessels are not estimated in the NONROAD Model but are still included in 

the nonroad category. The aircraft, rail, and commercial marine emissions are estimated outside 

of the NONROAD Model. In the approved Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan, the 

NONROAD2005 model was used to estimate nonroad emissions. The model went through one 

major revision since then. NONROAD2008a is the latest version of this model. This new 

version of the model incorporated two reduction strategies that affect engines and vehicles in the 

nonroad sector: 

 Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine 

engines (73 FR 25098); and 

 The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and recreational marine rule 

(73 FR 59034). 

For the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan, DEP modified files in the NONROAD 

Model, when state specific data was available for emission categories such as residential lawn 

and garden. 

Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the Scranton/WilkesBarre Ozone Maintenance Plan in 2007, as a result of the two additional controls mentioned 

above and normal fleet turnover that occurs when older engines are replaced with cleaner 

engines. The fleet turnover that occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles 

are replaced by newer equipment and vehicles that meet more stringent emission standards has 

continued to lower emissions in the nonroad sector since the late 1990s and will continue to do 

so for the next 10 years. Emission reductions occurred across all segments of the nonroad 

category, including construction equipment, farming equipment, locomotives, and lawn and 

garden equipment. Modeling runs were not completed for the nonroad emission source 

categories. The DEP will treat nonroad emissions in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area as nonchanging from their 2004 levels for the purpose of this SIP revision, even though full scale 

modeling runs using the NONROAD2008a would show nonroad emissions in a decline. 

Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant Emissions Budget for General Conformity 

An emission budget for NOX that will be produced by the construction of the Bell Bend Nuclear 

Power Plant is included in this SIP revision in order that the construction of the plant can meet 

the applicable requirements of General Conformity. The emissions were estimated in the Bell 

Bend Nuclear Power Plant Revised General Conformity Analysis Report, Revision 2.11 The Bell 

Bend Nuclear Power Plant project is scheduled to take seven years to complete. The largest 

amount of NOX emissions will be produced during year 2 of project construction. Emissions of 

 

11 PPL Nuclear Development, Allentown Pa., Gary Petrewski, February 3, 2012. 
- 21 - 

NOX will total 167.7 tons during the second year of construction. The annual emissions, if 

uniformly distributed over the calendar year, equate to 0.46 tons of NOX per day. Assuming that 

slightly more construction activity will occur during the non-winter months, the daily emissions 

of NOX would be slightly more than 0.46 tons. The General Conformity budget for NOX

emissions for this project will be 1.0 tons/summer day for the maintenance years 2009 and 2018 

which corresponds to a 201.0 tons of NOX cap per calendar year of emissions. The cap includes 

emissions of on-site nonroad diesel equipment and vehicles, small combustion engines, work 

force commuting that occurs within the maintenance area, delivery vehicles that operate within 

the maintenance area, on-site highway vehicles, and safety-related activities. 

Therefore, the actual emissions of the project should never exceed the emission budget in this 

SIP revision. 

HIGHWAY SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS 

Highway emissions were estimated by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., who is a consultant to the 

Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. The methodology for estimating emissions of 

highway vehicles is greatly different than what was used in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan because an entirely new highway emissions model is being used. Highway 

emissions are being estimated using the MOVES Model instead of the Mobile6 Model. With 

this change, a new set of inputs was used. The method for how traffic growth or vehicle miles 

travelled was forecasted remains the same as what was used in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. Both the revised maintenance plan and the original maintenance plan used 

the Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth. A revised Appendix C, Maintenance Plan 

Update for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle 

Emission Budget Revisions Using MOVES2010a, is attached. The Appendix C-1, Mobile 

Source Highway Emissions Inventory - An Explanation of Methodology is also attached. 

The MOVES Model estimates that highway vehicle emissions increase for NOX for the 2009 and 

2018 attainment years when compared to the highway vehicle emission estimates included in the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Ozone Maintenance Plan for those same years (See Table 14). Emission 

estimates of VOC in 2009 and 2018 do not increase a significant over the attainment year when 

using MOVES instead of Mobile6. Therefore, the MVEBs for VOC emissions from the 

maintenance plan will be kept and will not be revised using MOVES generated emissions. The 

MOVES model also increases the emission estimates of the 2004 attainment year. Since the 

emissions increase occurs in both the attainment and maintenance years, MOVES modeled 

emissions, like Mobile6 modeled emissions, of highway vehicles still show a large decrease in 

emissions between 2004 and 2009 and between 2004 and 2018. 
- 22 - 

Table 15: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a 

Compared to Mobile 6.2 (Tons/Day) 

Pollutant Sub Area Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions 

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018 

VOC Lackawanna County 8.93 6.51 3.94 7.12 5.91 3.37 

Luzerne County 13.84 10.12 5.90 11.19 9.28 5.16 

Scranton MPO Subtotal 22.8 16.6 9.8 18.3 15.2 8.5 

Monroe County 7.42 5.73 3.99 6.28 5.43 3.05 

NEPA MPO Subtotal 7.4 5.7 4.0 6.3 5.4 3.1 

Wyoming County 1.40 0.97 0.51 1.18 0.95 0.67 

Northern Tier MPO 

Subtotal 1.4 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.7 

Total 31.7 23.3 14.3 25.8 21.6 12.3 

NOX Lackawanna County 18.85 13.23 6.01 21.69 16.44 8.40 

Luzerne County 29.10 20.60 9.34 33.19 24.83 12.13 

Scranton MPO Subtotal 48.0 33.8 15.4 54.9 41.3 20.5 

Monroe County 15.88 11.60 5.66 18.85 13.61 6.55 

NEPA MPO Subtotal 15.9 11.6 5.70 18.9 13.6 6.6 

Wyoming County 2.25 1.50 0.64 3.29 2.39 1.46 

Northern Tier MPO 

Subtotal 2.2 1.5 0.6 3.3 2.4 1.5 

Total 66.1 46.9 21.7 77.1 57.3 28.6 
APPENDIX C

Maintenance Plan Update for the

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 1997 Eight-Hour Maintenance Area:

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions

Using MOVES2010a

Technical Support Document

Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

Bureau of Air Quality

Department of Environmental Protection
[This page intentionally left blank.]
APPENDIX C

Maintenance Plan Update for the

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 1997 Eight-Hour Maintenance Area:

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions

Using MOVES2010a

Technical Support Document

Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

 Prepared for:

Mobile Sources Section, Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

PO Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468

 Prepared by:

Michael Baker, Jr., Inc.

1304 Concourse Drive

Linthicum, MD 21090

410-689-3400
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Eight-Hour Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle Emission Budget 

Revisions

Exhibit of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................................1

REVISED EMISSIONS INVENTORY...............................................................................................................................1

ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY........................................................................................................................................2

DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS...........................................................................................................4

ANALYSIS TOOLS ......................................................................................................................................................4

TRAFFIC DATA SOURCE/FLEET DATA INPUTS ...........................................................................................................5

TRAFFIC GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS..............................................................................................................................6

VEHICLE POPULATION GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................................................................7

I/M AND FUEL PARAMETERS .....................................................................................................................................8

METEOROLOGY DATA ...............................................................................................................................................9

VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMS ..........................................................................................................................9

RESOURCES.............................................................................................................................................................10

List of Exhibits

EXHIBIT 1: SUMMARY OF APPENDICES...........................................................................................................................1

EXHIBIT 2: REVISED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS USING MOVES2010A .....................................................................2

EXHIBIT 3: SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS TOOLS...................................................................................................................4

EXHIBIT 4: PPSUITE PROCESS ......................................................................................................................................5

EXHIBIT 5: VMT GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS......................................................................................................................7

Summary of Appendices

Appendix C-1: Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory – An Explanation of Methodology

Appendix C-2: Emission Results for Ozone (VOC, NOx) 

(By Year, Road Type and Source Type)

Appendix C-3: MOVES Sample Input Files
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This technical appendix supports the revised maintenance plan for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area under 

the 1997 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone.

1

Section 107 of the Clean 

Air Act (CAA) establishes requirements for an area to be considered for redesignation. One of those 

requirements includes the development of an emissions inventory of ozone precursors, volatile organic 

compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), for a base year, the year the region attains the ozone 

standard, and projection years including a year at least 10 years following redesignation. The emissions 

inventory is used to demonstrate that projected emission levels are sufficient to maintain the ozone 

standard. U.S. EPA’s redesignation guidance states, “A state may generally demonstrate maintenance of 

the NAAQS by either showing that future emissions of a pollutant or its precursors will not exceed the 

level of the attainment inventory, or by modeling to show that the future mix of sources and emission 

rates will not cause a violation of the NAAQS.” 

A maintenance plan and corresponding emissions inventory for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area was 

originally approved by EPA on November 19, 2007 as documented in the Federal Register (72 FR 64948)

and was effective on December 19, 2007. At that time, EPA also approved the motor vehicle emission 

budgets (MVEBs) for VOC and NOx that were contained in the maintenance plan document. A SIP 

revision, requested to split the 2009 and 2018 MVEBs into three sub-regional MVEBs, was approved by 

EPA on August 11, 2009 in 74 FR 40083 and was effective on October 13, 2009. The original budgets 

were developed using MOBILE6.2, the latest EPA-approved emission model at that time. On March 2, 

2010, EPA officially released MOVES2010a to be used for all SIP submittals and future transportation 

conformity analyses after a grace period through March 2, 2013. This maintenance plan update revises 

the 2009 and 2018 MVEBs using MOVES2010a.

Appendix C has been provided to summarize the methodology and analysis results for the motor vehicle 

emissions inventory. To complement this executive summary, attachments have been provided with 

additional detail regarding the analysis methodology, the MOVES input parameters, and the output 

vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and emission results for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area. 

These include:

Exhibit 1: Summary of Appendices

Appendix Title Description

C-1 Explanation of Methodology Provides a detailed summary of the methodology used to 

calculate the VMT and emissions.

C-2

Ozone (VOC, NOx) 

Emission Results 

Provides emission exhibits by county, road type, and source 

type categories for a July weekday in 2009 and 2018.

C-3

MOVES Sample 

Input File Provides examples of the MOVES input files.

Revised Emissions Inventory

A summary of the revised motor vehicle emissions for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area is provided in 

Exhibit 2. Both VOC and NOx emission estimates have been developed using the MOVES2010a

emission model and latest planning assumptions. Emissions have been estimated for the 2004 attainment 

year, 2009 and 2018. The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates from the original maintenance plan have been 

included in the exhibit to illustrate relative changes in emissions.

 

1

Prepared for the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection by Michael Baker Jr. Inc. in 2012
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 2

Exhibit 2: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

(Short Tons/Day)

Pollutant Sub Area Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

VOC

Lackawanna, Luzerne 22.77 16.63 9.84 18.32 15.18 8.53

Monroe 7.42 5.73 3.99 6.28 5.43 3.05

Wyoming 1.40 0.97 0.51 1.18 0.95 0.67

Total 31.59 23.33 14.34 25.78 21.56 12.25

NOx

Lackawanna, Luzerne 47.95 33.83 15.35 54.88 41.27 20.53

Monroe 15.88 11.60 5.66 18.85 13.61 6.55

Wyoming 2.25 1.50 0.64 3.29 2.39 1.46

Total 66.08 46.93 21.65 77.02 57.27 28.54

Analysis Methodology

Guidance documents from EPA were used to develop the base and future year emissions inventories for 

the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area. They include:

 Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation 

Conformity, and Other Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-

046, December 2009.

 Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in 

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and 

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April

2010.

 Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, 

August 2010.

The highway mobile source emission inventory was developed using available travel data and EPA’s 

MOVES2010a emission model. The methodologies used to produce the emission data conform to the 

recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance. A mix of local data and national default 

(internal to MOVES2010a) data has been used for this submission. Local data has been used for the 

primary data items that have a significant impact on emissions. These include:

 Vehicle miles of travel (VMT) by vehicle type.

 Average speed distribution.

 Vehicle type mixes.

 Source type population (for light-duty vehicles).

 Vehicle age distribution.

 Hourly distributions.

 Meteorology data.

 Inspection/Maintenance program.

 Fuel supply.
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 3

Most local data inputs to the analysis process reflect the latest planning assumptions based on 

2008 data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT), the Bureau 

of Motor Vehicles, and other local/national sources. Newer data was available and was used for 

traffic forecast growth rates, control strategies (e.g. Inspection-Maintenance programs), vehicle 

age distributions and fuel characteristics. 

The analysis methodology is consistent with past statewide inventory efforts including the 2008 National 

Emissions Inventory (NEI) submission. This includes the use of custom post processing software to 

calculate hourly speeds and prepare key traffic input files to the MOVES2010a emission model. A 

detailed methodology is provided in Appendix C-1. The following sections address the key input data 

sources and analysis tools used for the emissions inventory for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area. 
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 4

DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS 

This section provides a summary of the key input data and analysis tools used for producing the 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area emissions inventory. The key elements to the modeling 

protocol are described in the sections below. A more detailed description of the analysis process and 

tools is provided in the methodology reports in Appendix C-1 through C-3.

Analysis Tools 

The mobile vehicle emissions inventory analysis utilizes several key software/programs for producing the 

county emissions totals. These tools are outlined in Exhibit 3.

Exhibit 3: Summary of Analysis Tools

Tool Purpose

MOVES2010a

Produces emission rates for each ozone 

precursor, VOC and NOx.

PPSUITE

Processes the highway data; Calculates 

hourly congested speeds for each state 

roadway segment; Prepares MOVES2010a

input files; Processes MOVES2010a output 

files into a summary report.

CENTRAL

Provides a batch menu driven process to 

execute PPSUITE, MOVES2010a and other 

MYSQL steps. 

The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area inventory reflects the highway mobile source emission 

estimations using EPA’s MOVES2010a emission model. EPA’s MOVES model was officially released 

on March 2, 2010 and was followed with a revised version (MOVES2010a) in August 2010. The 

MOVES2010a model provides a more robust estimate of emissions as compared to its predecessor 

MOBILE6.2. MOVES2010a has been integrated with local traffic, vehicle fleet, environmental, fuel, and 

control strategy data to estimate emissions.

PPSUITE represents an enhanced version of the Post Processor for Air Quality (PPAQ) software system 

that has been used for previous inventory and conformity submissions in Pennsylvania. The software has 

undergone significant revisions to ensure consistency with the MOVES2010a. PPSUITE was used to 

calculate hourly congested speeds for each roadway link, apply vehicle type fractions, aggregate VMT, 

prepare MOVES2010a traffic-related input files and process MOVES2010a outputs. 

The PPSUITE software and process methodologies are consistent with that used for state inventories and 

transportation conformity analyses throughout Pennsylvania. Exhibit 4 summarizes the key functions of 

PPSUITE.
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 5

Exhibit 4: PPSUITE Process

CENTRAL is a menu-driven software platform that executes the PPSUITE and MOVES2010a processes 

in batch mode. The software allows users to execute runs for a variety of input options and integrates 

custom MYSQL steps into the process. CENTRAL provides important quality control and assurance 

steps including file naming and storage automation.

Traffic Data Source/Fleet Data Inputs 

Traffic Volume Data: The 2008 PennDOT Roadway Management System (RMS) data serves as the 

primary highway data source for the county and functional class VMT estimates. The data source has 

been updated to provide a “snapshot” of the regional roadway system and traffic volumes in 2008 and is 

also integrated with traffic signal locations. The data includes the 2008 average annual daily traffic

(AADT) volumes for all state roadways in Pennsylvania. To account for additional local roadway VMT 

and to ensure consistency with reported Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) VMT totals, 

the 2008 VMT totals are adjusted to match the 2008 HPMS VMT totals reported to FHWA. 

Seasonal Adjustments: Based on the requirements for ozone inventories, traffic volumes on each RMS 

roadway segment must be adjusted to a July weekday. The daily and monthly seasonal factors are 

developed from data contained in the document, 2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data, prepared by 

PennDOT’s Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). The seasonal and daily factors provided in this 

document are based on statistical analyses of 2008 traffic counts taken at permanent and in-pavement 

ATR (automatic traffic recorder) locations throughout the state. Based on these seasonal traffic volumes, 

the PPSUITE software calculates unique congested speeds for each roadway segment during an ozone 

summer weekday scenario.
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 6

Congested Speeds: PPSUITE calculates congested speeds by hour of the day for each roadway segment 

and provides the information as input to the MOVES2010a software. To disaggregate the daily RMS 

volumes to hourly volumes, auto and truck hourly pattern data from PennDOT’s 2008 Pennsylvania 

Traffic Data report are used to determine the temporal variations in traffic volumes.

Vehicle Population: Vehicle population is a key input that has an important impact on start and 

evaporative emissions. MOVES2010a requires the number of vehicles by 13 source types to determine 

evaporative emissions. State 2008 vehicle registration data was used to estimate vehicle population for 

light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data was split to source types using MOVES2010a default 

population data. For transit buses, data from PennDOT and the National Transit Database (NTD) was 

used to estimate transit bus populations by county. For all other heavy-duty vehicles, PPSUITE calculates 

vehicle population based on the analysis year VMT for each source type and default MOVES2010a ratios 

of VMT and source type population (e.g. the number of miles per vehicle by source type). Vehicle 

population is forecast based on projected household and population growth from Woods and Poole Inc. 

for each Pennsylvania county. The growth rate methodology includes:

 Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households

 Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth assumptions

VMT by Source Type: The total VMT is disaggregated to the 13 MOVES2010a source types. For this 

inventory, the vehicle mix was calculated for each county and functional class grouping utilizing a 

combination of:

 2008 RMS truck percentages

 PennDOT and 2008 NTD transit data 

 2008 school bus registration data 

EPA’s MOVES2010a default distribution of VMT by source type was used to determine the remaining 

source type VMT percentages. The development of vehicle type pattern data input to the MOVES2010a

software is described in more detail in Appendix C-1. 

Vehicle Age Distribution: Vehicle age distributions are required to be input by 13 source types. The 

distributions reflect the percentage of vehicles in the fleet up to 31 years old. A recent 2010 registration 

download from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database has indicated a substantially 

older fleet than recorded in the 2002-2008 period. The 2010 vehicle age distributions have been used for 

this inventory. Due to insufficient data, only data for light-duty vehicles are used as local inputs; and

heavy-duty vehicle ages are calculated using the internal MOVES2010a defaults for each Pennsylvania 

County. The registration data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. The data was 

converted to source types using the EPA convertor spreadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a 

emission model.

Traffic Growth Assumptions 

Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role in estimating future year emissions for the region. There 

are many uncertainties affecting projections of traffic growth including the current economic conditions, 

potential fuel prices, the impacts of Marcellus Shale activities in many counties throughout the state, and 

the future growth in population and employment. Growth rates for this emissions inventory were based 

on an assessment of available data sources. 
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 7

For the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area, the following data sources are available:

 PennDOT BPR Growth Rate forecasting system.

 Estimates of Marcellus Shale related activity growth.

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include the review and assessment of county-specific growth 

rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical 

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14, 

2005. As part of that study, a statewide traffic growth forecasting system was developed that incorporates 

traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information System and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting 

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is updated on a periodic basis. This system was last 

updated in December of 2009 to develop new statistical relationships between historic VMT growth and 

population (thru 2008). The forecast population was estimated from the Woods and Poole data “2010 

State Profile”. The results of the study have been shared between PennDOT, PaDEP, and other 

Interagency Consultation Group members, including the Pennsylvania Transportation - Air Quality Work 

Group (which also includes EPA, FHWA, and representatives from larger MPOs within the state).

The growth rates from the PennDOT BPR forecasting system are evaluated against other available data

including travel model growth and other insights. For the development of MVEBs, upper estimates of the 

VMT growth range are used for the forecast analyses. From an air quality perspective, the use of the 

upper boundary is conservative, and provides for factors outside PennDOT or PaDEP control (e.g., 

potential socio-economic growth above current forecasts, fleet age distributions, vehicle type distribution) 

that influence motor vehicle emissions. Exhibit 5 summarizes the assumed projected growth of VMT for 

future analysis years in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area.

Exhibit 5: VMT Growth Assumptions

Analysis 

Year

Total Growth 

from 2004

Annualized Growth Rate 

from Previous Year

Lackawanna, Luzerne

2004 ---- ----

2009 4.7% 0.9%

2018 30.6% 2.2%

Monroe

2004 ---- ----

2009 1.9% 0.4%

2018 21.9% 1.6%

Wyoming

2004 ---- ----

2009 0.1% 0.0%

2018 42.4% 3.0%

Vehicle Population Growth Assumptions

Vehicle population growth forecasting plays an important key role in determining emissions for future 

years for the region. For this inventory, vehicle population was forecasted considering the growth from 

three different sources:

 Household growth
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 8

 Population Growth

 VMT Growth

The household and population data were obtained from the PennDOT study documented in the report as 

discussed above, Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: 

Final Report, March 14, 2005. The forecast household and population were estimated from the Woods 

and Poole data “2010 State Profile”. The highest growth between household and population data was 

obtained by county and compared with VMT growth and a factor was chosen limiting growth to VMT 

growth.

I/M and Fuel Parameters 

I/M Program: The inspection maintenance (I/M) program inputs to the MOVES2010a model are based 

on past and current programs within each county (all PA I/M programs are based on county boundaries).

All analysis years include Pennsylvania’s statewide program. The MOVES2010a model has simplified 

the I/M program input parameters compared to MOBILE6.2. The default I/M program parameters 

included in MOVES2010a were examined for each county and necessary changes made to the defaults to 

match the actual local program.

In order to assure that emission controls are working properly, vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) 

programs have been adopted in some nonattainment areas. These programs have the added benefit of 

improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles. The Pennsylvania inspection and maintenance (I/M) program 

was upgraded and expanded throughout the state with a phase-in period starting in September 2003 and 

fully implemented by June 2004. 

The program requirements vary by region (five regions) and include on-board diagnostics (OBD) 

technology that uses the vehicle’s computer for model years 1996 and newer to identify potential engine 

and exhaust system problems that could affect emissions. The program, named PAOBDII, is 

implemented by region, as follows: 

 Philadelphia Region - Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia Counties

 Pittsburgh Region - Allegheny, Beaver, Washington and Westmoreland Counties

 South Central and Lehigh Valley Region - Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, 

Lehigh, Northampton and York Counties

 North Region - Blair, Cambria, Centre, Erie, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Lycoming, and Mercer 

Counties

 Other 42 Counties – Includes Monroe and Wyoming Counties

The OBDII program is implemented in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh along with tailpipe (idle in Pittsburgh 

and idle and ASM in Philadelphia) and gas cap tests. Tests in other regions include:

 Subject vehicles registered in the South Central and Lehigh Valley counties receive the visual, 

OBD and gas cap tests.

 Subject vehicles registered in the North region receive a gas cap test and visual inspection. 

 Subject vehicles registered in the other 42 counties (67 total counties) receive a visual inspection 

as part of the annual safety inspection. 

Fuel Assumptions: The MOVES2010a default fuel formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and 

updated based on available local volumetric fuel property information. The gasohol market penetration 

and RVP values were updated but MOVES2010a default data was used for the remaining parameters. 

Updated assumptions included:
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 9

 8.7 RVP used for summer months.

 Conventional gasoline used throughout the year for analysis year 2004.

 32% market share of conventional gasoline and 68% market share of 10% ethanol used 

throughout the year for analysis year 2009.

 10% ethanol used throughout the year for analysis year 2018.

Meteorology Data 

Updated weather information has been obtained from WeatherBank, Inc. (www.weatherbank.com). The 

10-year average minimum and maximum monthly temperature and relative humidity values were 

obtained for each of the 9 airport locations in Pennsylvania. 

The MOVES2010a model requires temperature and relative humidity data for each hour of the day.

EPA’s data converters were used to convert minimum and maximum daily temperatures to an hourly 

temperature profile that could be input to MOVES2010a. These assumptions are consistent with the 2008 

NEI inventory submission. 

Vehicle Technology Programs

Federal Programs

Current federal vehicle emissions control and fuel programs are incorporated into the MOVES2010a

software. These include the National Program standards covering model year vehicles through 2016. 

Modifications of default emission rates are required to reflect the early implementation of the National 

Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV) program in Pennsylvania. To reflect these impacts, EPA has 

released instructions and input files that can be used to model these impacts. This inventory utilized the 

August 2010 version of the files (http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/moves/tools.htm). 

State Programs 

The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles (PCV) Program, adopted in 1998, incorporated the California Low 

Emission Vehicle Program (CA LEVII) by reference, although it allowed automakers to comply with the 

NLEV program as an alternative to this Pennsylvania program until MY 2006. Beginning with MY 2008, 

“new” passenger cars and light-duty trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 pounds 

or less that are sold or leased and titled in Pennsylvania must be certified by the California Air Resources 

Board (CARB) or be certified for sale in all 50 states. For this program, a “new” vehicle is a qualified 

vehicle with an odometer reading less than 7,500 miles. PaDEP and PennDOT worked with the 

automobile manufacturers, dealers and other interested business partners and finalized procedures for 

complying with these new requirements. DEP focuses its outreach effort with the manufacturers and 

dealers regarding what vehicles can be offered for sale and how to certify that the vehicles are compliant. 

PennDOT’s role is to ensure licensing and registration records include these certifications of compliance 

or that the vehicle owner qualifies for an exemption to the requirements. In all cases, DEP will use 

information obtained during PennDOT’s title and registration process to oversee and audit, as needed, 

certain vehicle title transactions to determine compliance to the program. 

The impacts of this program are modeled for all analysis years beyond 2008 using the same instructions 

and tools as downloaded for the early NLEV analysis. EPA provided input files to reflect the CAL LEVII 

program. Modifications to those files were made to reflect a 2008 start date for Pennsylvania.
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 10

RESOURCES 

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010.

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State 

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office 

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010.

2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data, PENNDOT Bureau of Planning and Research, 2008. 

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other 

Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-046, December 2009.

Instructions for Using LEV and NLEV Inputs for MOVES, US EPA, EPA-420-B-10-003a, August 2010.

Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, 

Michael Baker Jr., Inc., March 14, 2005.

Metrological Data from Weather Bank, Inc., www.weatherbank.com
APPENDIX C-1

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area

An Explanation of Methodology

Bureau of Air Quality

Department of Environmental Protection
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APPENDIX C-1

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area

An Explanation of Methodology
An Explanation of Methodology

Explanation of Methodology

May 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................1

OVERVIEW OF EMISSIONS INVENTORIES....................................................................................................................1

HIGHWAY VEHICLE EMISSION INVENTORIES.............................................................................................................1

WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA? .....................................................................................4

SUMMARY OF MOVES INPUTS..................................................................................................................................4

VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL (VMT)..........................................................................................................................5

ADJUSTMENTS TO ROADWAY DATA..........................................................................................................................8

VEHICLE TYPE PROCESSING ......................................................................................................................................9

VEHICLE FLEET AND POPULATION DATA ................................................................................................................10

ENVIRONMENTAL, FUEL AND TECHNOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS ....................................................................................11

SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE ..............................................................................................12

VOLUME/VMT DEVELOPMENT ...............................................................................................................................12

SPEED/DELAY DETERMINATION ..............................................................................................................................15

HPMS AND VMT ADJUSTMENTS ............................................................................................................................16

MOVES EMISSIONS RUN ........................................................................................................................................17

RESOURCES.............................................................................................................................................................18

HIGHWAY VEHICLE INVENTORY GLOSSARY .............................................................................................19

List of Exhibits

EXHIBIT 1: SUMMARY OF PPSUITE PROCESS................................................................................................................3

EXHIBIT 2: MOVES LOCAL DATA INPUT SUMMARY .....................................................................................................4

EXHIBIT 3: PENNDOT URBAN/RURAL AND FUNCTIONAL CLASS CODES .......................................................................6

EXHIBIT 4: EMISSION FACTOR VS. SPEED VARIANCES (NOX)........................................................................................7

EXHIBIT 5: MOVES SOURCE TYPES AND HPMS VEHICLE GROUPS ..............................................................................9

EXHIBIT 6: PPSUITE SPEED / EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE..............................................................................13
Appendix C-1 1

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this document is to explain how the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental 

Protection (Department) estimates emissions from highway vehicles for inclusion in its emission 

inventories and State Implementation Plans. 

Overview of Emissions Inventories

The Department’s inventories generally categorize emissions into four categories:

 Highway vehicles.

 Stationary sources (major industrial, commercial and utility sources).

 Area sources (smaller industrial/commercial sources, consumer products).

 Nonroad mobile sources (including construction and agricultural equipment, lawn and garden 

equipment).

An evaluation of emissions from point, area, and mobile sources is needed to develop a complete 

inventory needed for a maintenance demonstration plan. This documentation addresses the mobile source 

activity and emissions for base and future years used to support such a demonstration. 

Of all of the sources of air pollution, only the emissions of some stationary sources are measured directly 

and continuously through instrumentation. Emissions from all other sources must be modeled based on 

available local data, including those from highway vehicles. In their very simplest form, estimates of 

emissions follow the following pattern:

Emission rate x activity level = emissions per time period (usually day or year)

Most emission rates have been developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in 

cooperation with industry and states, and are compiled and documented into key references or emission 

models. These include Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors (AP-42), the Motor Vehicle 

Emission Simulator (MOVES) model, and the NONROAD model. Adding up the products of the 

emission rates and activity levels for all sources of a given pollutant constitutes the emission inventory for 

that pollutant.

Highway Vehicle Emission Inventories

Highway vehicles contribute significantly to air pollution, particularly to ground-level ozone, which is the 

most persistent air pollutant in Pennsylvania. Ground-level ozone is not emitted directly to the 

atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical reactions between volatile organic compounds 

(VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) in the presence of sunlight. The long, hot, humid days of 

summer are particularly conducive to ozone formation, so ozone levels are of concern primarily 

during the months of May through September. Both VOCs and NOx are emitted from highway 

vehicles. Pennsylvania’s ozone-related emission inventory efforts focus on these two types of pollutants.

Obviously, direct measurement of emission levels from all vehicles in use is impossible. In comparison 

to highway vehicles, estimating residential heating emissions is a fairly simple calculation because there 

is a constant emission rate and a fairly simple measure of activity. However, for highway vehicles
Appendix C-1 2

estimating the emission rate and activity levels of all vehicles on the road during a typical summer day is 

a complicated endeavor.

If every vehicle emitted the same amount of pollution all the time, one could simply multiply those 

emission standards (emission rate in grams of pollution per mile) times the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 

to estimate total emissions. But emission rates from all vehicles vary over the entire range of conditions 

under which they operate. These variables include air temperature, speed, traffic conditions, operating 

mode and fuel characteristics. The inventory must also account for non-exhaust or evaporative emissions. 

In addition, the fleet is composed of several generations and types of vehicles with different emission 

control technologies. This requires the estimation algorithm include the composition of the fleet (vehicle 

ages and types).

In order to estimate both the rate at which emissions are being generated and to calculate vehicle miles 

traveled (activity level), Pennsylvania examines its road network and fleet to estimate vehicle activity. 

For ozone-related inventories, this is done for a typical summer weekday. For carbon monoxide (CO) and 

particulate matter (PM) emission inventories, this may be done for a typical winter weekday, summer 

weekday and/or annual conditions. Not only must this be done for a baseline year, but it must also be 

projected into the future. This process involves a large quantity of data and is extremely complex. 

Computer models have been developed to perform these calculations by simulating the travel of vehicles 

on the Commonwealth’s roadway system. The models also generate emissions rates (also called emission 

factors) for different vehicle types for area-specific conditions, and then combine them in summary form. 

The area-specific conditions include vehicle and highway data, plus control measure characteristics and 

future year projections of all variables. The key models used to generate this mobile source emissions 

inventory are: 

MOVES: EPA’s MOVES model was officially released on March 2, 2010 and was followed with a 

revised version (MOVES2010a) in August 2010. The MOVES model provides a more robust estimate of 

emissions as compared to its predecessor MOBILE6.2. MOVES calculates average in-use fleet emissions 

for each of thirteen categories of vehicles under various conditions affecting in-use emission levels (e.g., 

ambient temperatures, average traffic speeds, gasoline volatility) as specified by the model user. 

For this mobile source inventory, Pennsylvania used MOVES2010a as approved by EPA. MOVES can 

be used to estimate national, state, and county level inventories of criteria air pollutants, precursors, 

greenhouse gas emissions, and some mobile source air toxics from highway vehicles. Additionally, 

MOVES can make projections for energy consumption (total, petroleum-based, and fossil-based).

PPSUITE: For the Department’s highway emissions inventory, a post processor named PPSUITE 

(formerly named PPAQ - Post Processor for Air Quality) is used, which consists of a set of programs that 

perform the following functions:

 Analyzes highway operating conditions.

 Calculates highway speeds.

 Compiles vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and vehicle type mix data.

 Prepares MOVES runs and processes MOVES outputs.

PPSUITE is a widely used and accepted tool for estimating speeds and processing emissions rates. The 

software is based upon accepted transportation engineering methodologies. For example, PPSUITE uses

speed and delay estimation procedures based on planning methods provided in the Highway Capacity 

Manual, a report prepared by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) summarizing current knowledge 

and analysis techniques for capacity and level-of-service analyses of the transportation system. 
Appendix C-1 3

The PPSUITE process is integral to producing key input files to the MOVES emission model. Exhibit 1 

summarizes the key functions of PPSUITE and the traffic-related input files prepared for the MOVES 

County Data Manager (CDM). 

Exhibit 1: Summary of PPSUITE Process

The following sections summarize the key data and methodologies used to produce the mobile source 

emissions inventory. This includes a summary of local data sources and a step-by-step review of the 

speed calculation process. The emission data and process has been developed according to 

recommendations provided by EPA in key policy and technical guidance as provided below:

 Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation 

Conformity, and Other Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-

046, December 2009.

 Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in 

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and 

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 

2010.

The process has focused on developing an emissions inventory using the available tools and data to its 

fullest extent. This includes the use of available local data for items that have a significant impact on 

emissions and applying a robust calculation process to estimate hourly traffic speeds.
Appendix C-1 4

WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA?

Summary of MOVES Inputs

A large number of inputs to MOVES are needed to fully account for the numerous vehicle and 

environmental parameters that affect emissions. These include traffic flow characteristics (as determined 

from the PPSUITE software), vehicle descriptions, fuel parameters, inspection/maintenance program 

parameters, and environmental variables. MOVES includes a default national database of meteorology, 

vehicle fleet, vehicle activity, fuel, and emission control program data for every county; but EPA cannot 

certify that the default data is the most current or best available information for any specific area. As a 

result, local data is recommended for use for analyses supporting state implementation plans (SIPs).

A mix of local and default data is used for this inventory. Local data sources are used for all inputs that 

have a significant impact on calculated emission rates. Exhibit 2 summarizes Pennsylvania-specific 

inputs assembled and used for this inventory. These data items are discussed in the following sections.

Exhibit 2: MOVES Local Data Input Summary

 Traffic Vehicle Fuel Inspection Environmental

 Data Descriptions Parameters Maintenance Variables

 Vehicle Type Vehicle Type RVP Start Year Hourly

 VMT Mix Model Years Temperatures

 Vehicle Vehicle Age Sulfur Test Standards, 

 Population Distribution Level Source Types, Humidity

 Frequency

 VMT Average Speeds Ethanol Stringency,

 Fractions (PPSUITE) Volume Waiver Rate, 

 (PPSUITE) Compliance

 Road Type Hourly Refueling 

 Distribution Distributions Controls

 (PPSUITE) 

 Ramp 

 Fraction

 (PPSUITE)

 Emission Rates
Appendix C-1 5

Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT)

The VMT input to emissions calculations for Pennsylvania is based on information from the Roadway 

Management System (RMS) maintained by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation’s 

(PennDOT’s) Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). PennDOT obtains this information from periodic 

visual and electronic traffic counts. RMS data is dynamic, since it is continually reviewed and updated 

from new traffic counts and field visits conducted by PennDOT. Information on roadways included in the 

National Highway System is reviewed at least annually, while information on other roadways is reviewed 

at least biennially. 

On a triennial basis, a current “snapshot” of the RMS database is taken and downloaded to provide an upto-date record of the Commonwealth’s highway system for estimating emissions. This emissions 

inventory is based on the most current snapshot of the RMS data.

The RMS database contains all state highways, including the Pennsylvania Turnpike, divided into 

segments approximately 0.5 miles in length. These segments are usually divided at important 

intersections or locations where there is a change in the physical characteristics of the roadway (e.g. the 

number of lanes changes). There are approximately 99,000 state highway segments for the 67 

Pennsylvania counties contained in the RMS. Each of these segments contains an abundance of 

descriptive data, but only the following information is extracted for emission calculations:

 Lanes.

 Distances.

 Volumes representing Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT).

 Truck percentages.

 PennDOT urban/rural classifications.

 PennDOT functional class codes.

 Number of signals (based on linkage to PennDOT GIS signal location data).

RMS volumes and distances are used in calculating highway VMT totals for each county. As discussed 

in the next section, adjustments are needed to convert the volumes to an average summer weekday, winter 

weekday, and monthly day. In addition, the traffic volumes must be forecast to support future year 

emission inventories. Lane values and traffic signals are an important input for determining the 

congestion and speeds for individual highway segments. Truck percentages are used in the speed 

determination process and are used to split volumes to individual vehicle types used by the MOVES

software. 

 

Road segments are classified by function, as well as whether it is located in an urban, small urban or rural 

area, as indicated below in Exhibit 3. The PennDOT urban/rural (UR) and functional classes (FC) are 

important indicators of the type and function of each roadway segment. The variables provide insights 

into other characteristics not contained in the RMS data that are used for speed and emission calculations. 
Appendix C-1 6

Exhibit 3: PennDOT Urban/Rural and Functional Class Codes

Urban/Rural Code 1=Rural

2=Small Urban

3=Urban

Functional Class Rural Functional Classes Used Urban Functional Classes Used

For Rural Areas For Small Urban and Urban Areas

------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------

1=Rural Freeway 11=Urban Freeway

2=Rural Other Principal Arterial 12=Urban Expressway

6=Rural Minor Arterial 14=Urban Principal Arterial

7=Rural Major Collector 16=Urban Minor Arterial

8=Rural Minor Collector 17=Urban Collector

9=Rural Local 19=Urban Local

Additional Network Information: The PPSUITE software system allows for many additional variables 

other than those available in the RMS database. Using these variables improves the ability of the 

Department to incorporate real roadway conditions into its estimates. The variables include information 

regarding free-flow speeds and capacities, signal characteristics and other physical roadway features that 

can affect a roadway’s calculated congested speed. This data can be determined from lookup tables based 

on a roadway segment’s urban/rural code and functional class. Much of the lookup table data was 

developed from information contained in the Highway Capacity Manual, PennDOT information on 

speeds and signal densities, and other engineering judgment.

MOVES Traffic Inputs: The PPSUITE software uses RMS traffic data to prepare key inputs to the

MOVES emission model including:

 VMT.

 Travel speeds.

 Road type distributions.

 Ramp fractions.

VMT is the primary traffic input that affects emission results. The roadway segment distances and traffic 

volumes are used to prepare estimates of VMT. PPSUITE performs these calculations and outputs the 

MOVES annual VMT input file to the County Data Manager (CDM).

Emissions for many pollutants (including both VOC and NOx) vary significantly with travel speed. 

While VOCs generally decrease as speed increases, NOx decreases at the low speed range and increases 

at higher speeds, as illustrated in Exhibit 4. To obtain the best estimate of vehicle speeds, the Department

uses the PPSUITE set of programs, whose primary function is to calculate speeds and to organize and 

simplify the handling of large amounts of data needed for calculating speeds and for preparing MOVES

input files. The PPSUITE software prepares the MOVES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by speed bin file 

which summarizes the distribution of speeds across all links into each of 16 MOVES speed bins for each 

hour of the day. This robust process ensures that MOVES emission rates are used to the fullest extent and 

is consistent with the methods and recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance on the Use 

of MOVES2010 for Emissions Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation 

Conformity.
Appendix C-1 7

Exhibit 4: Emission Factor vs. Speed Variances (NOx)

In MOVES, typical drive cycles and associated operating conditions vary by the type of roadway. 

MOVES defines five different road types as follows:

1 Off-Network.

2 Rural Restricted Access.

3 Rural Unrestricted Access.

4 Urban Restricted Access.

5 Urban Unrestricted Access.

The off-network road type includes emissions from vehicle starts, extended idle activity, and evaporative 

emissions. Off-network activity in MOVES is primarily determined by the Source Type Population 

input, as discussed in a following section. The remaining distribution among road types is determined by 

equating the PennDOT functional class with each MOVES road type as follows:

 MOVES Road Type (2) = PennDOT Functional Class (1).

 MOVES Road Type (3) = PennDOT Functional Class (2,6,7,8,9).

 MOVES Road Type (4) = PennDOT Functional Class (11,12).

 MOVES Road Type (5) = PennDOT Functional Class (14,16,17,19).

For this inventory, the MOVES road type distribution file is automatically generated by PPSUITE using 

the defined equivalencies.

Since ramps are not directly represented within the RMS database information, it is assumed that 8% of 

the Freeway VHT is Ramp VHT. This is consistent with the recommendations provided in EPA’s 

technical guidance.

Source: Figure 3 from Implications of the MOVES2010 Model on Mobile 

Source Emission Estimates, Air & Waste Management Association, July 2010.
Appendix C-1 8

Adjustments to Roadway Data

Before the RMS data can be used by PPSUITE for speed and emission calculations, several adjustments 

and additions must be made to the roadway data. These adjustments are summarized below.

HPMS Adjustments: According to EPA guidance, baseline inventory VMT computed from the RMS 

highway segment volumes must be adjusted to be consistent with Highway Performance Monitoring 

System (HPMS) VMT totals. The HPMS VMT reported for Pennsylvania is a subsystem of the RMS 

established to meet the data reporting requirements of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and 

to serve as PennDOT’s official source of highway information. Although it has some limitations, the 

HPMS system is currently in use in all 50 states and is being improved under FHWA direction. 

Although the HPMS VMT and the roadway data used for an inventory emissions analysis are both based 

on data from the RMS system, differences do exist between them and include the following. First, the 

HPMS and inventory roadway data are “snapshots” of the RMS data taken at different times. Since the 

RMS is dynamic, changing constantly due to new data, differences will result between the data used for 

calculating HPMS VMT totals and the inventory data used for an emissions analysis. Second, since the 

RMS does not contain many of the local roadways, local road estimates of HPMS VMT are obtained 

through alternative procedures developed by PennDOT. To account for such differences, adjustment 

factors are calculated and used to adjust the inventory roadway data to the reported HPMS VMT totals 

submitted to FHWA. The VMT contained in the HPMS reports are considered to represent average 

annual daily traffic (AADT).

Adjustment factors are calculated which adjust the base year RMS download VMT to the reported HPMS 

totals for that year. These factors are developed for each county and functional class combination and are 

also applied to all future year runs. Adjustments for the “higher” functional classes (e.g. Freeway, 

Arterials - major routes) are close to 1.000 since HPMS VMT is derived from RMS information, and the 

only difference in the data is that the “snapshot” for the emission calculations is taken at a different time 

than for the HPMS. “Lower” classes (e.g. local roads) require greater adjustment since a large part of the 

local system is not under state jurisdiction and is not in the RMS database. There is, of course, a 

significant amount of local road mileage in the state. It is assumed that those local streets that are in RMS 

are representative of all local streets in their area with respect to volume and speed, so that roadway 

mileage adjustment is appropriate. 

 

Seasonal Adjustments to Volumes: The RMS contains AADT volumes that are an average of all days in 

the year, including weekends and holidays. An ozone emission analysis, however, is based on a typical 

July or summer weekday. PM and CO analyses require volumes representing a typical summer or winter 

weekday and monthly average conditions (needed for producing annual totals). Therefore, the RMS 

volumes must be seasonally adjusted. Seasonal factors were developed for each functional class and 

urban/rural code based on yearly count information prepared by PennDOT’s BPR. These factors are 

applied to the existing RMS AADT volumes to produce the July volumes. The same factors are also used

to develop the MOVES daily and monthly VMT fraction files.

Hourly Adjustments: Speeds and emissions vary considerably depending on the time of day.

Therefore, it is important to estimate the pattern by which roadway volume varies by hour of the day. The 

24-hour pattern data provides PPSUITE with information used to split the daily roadway segment 

volumes to each of the 24 hours in a day. Pattern data is in the form of a percentage of the daily volumes 

for each hour. Distributions are provided for each county and functional class grouping. This data is 

developed from 24-hour count data compiled by PennDOT’s BPR, according to the process in the 

agencies annual traffic data reports. The same factors are also used to develop the MOVES hourly 

fraction file.
Appendix C-1 9

Traffic Volume Forecasts: Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role in estimating future year 

emissions for the region. There are many uncertainties affecting projections of traffic growth, including 

the current economic conditions, potential fuel prices, the impacts of Marcellus Shale activities in many 

counties throughout the state, and the future growth in population and employment. Growth rates for the 

Department’s emissions inventories are based on an assessment of available data sources which include:

 PennDOT BPR growth rate forecasting system.

 Regional travel model, if available.

 Estimates of Marcellus Shale related activity growth, if applicable.

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include the review and assessment of county-specific growth 

rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical 

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14, 

2005. As part of that study, a statewide traffic growth forecasting system was developed that incorporates 

traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information System and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting 

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is updated on a periodic basis to develop new statistical 

relationships between historic VMT growth and population and updated demographic forecasts from 

Woods and Poole, Inc. The growth rates from the PennDOT BPR forecasting system are evaluated 

against other available data including travel model growth and other insights. 

Vehicle Type Processing

Emission rates within MOVES vary significantly by the type of vehicle. The MOVES model produces 

emissions and rates by thirteen MOVES vehicle source types. However, VMT is input to MOVES by six

HPMS vehicle groups. Exhibit 5 summarizes the distinction between each classification scheme.

Exhibit 5: MOVES Source Types and HPMS Vehicle Groups

SOURCE TYPES HPMS Class Groups

11 Motorcycle 10 Motorcycle

21 Passenger Car 20 Passenger Car

31 Passenger Truck 30 Passenger/Light Truck

32 Light Commercial Truck 40 Buses

41 Intercity Bus 50 Single Unit Trucks

42 Transit Bus 60 Combination Trucks

43 School bus

51 Refuse Truck

52 Single Unit Short-haul Truck

53 Single Unit Long-haul Truck

54 Motor Home

61 Combination Short-haul Truck

62 Combination Long-haul Truck

The process used for this inventory includes a method to disaggregate the RMS traffic volumes to the 

thirteen source types and then to recombine the estimates to the six HPMS vehicle classes. Vehicle type 

pattern data is used by PPSUITE to divide the hourly roadway segment volumes to the thirteen MOVES 

source types. Similar to the 24-hour pattern data, this data contains percentage splits to each source type 

for every hour of the day. The vehicle type pattern data for this inventory is developed from several 

sources of information:
Appendix C-1 10

 PennDOT truck percentages from the RMS database.

 Hourly distributions for trucks and total traffic compiled by PennDOT’s BPR.

 Transit data from PennDOT and the National Transit Database.

 School bus registration data from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database.

The vehicle type pattern data is developed for each county and functional class combination. First, RMS 

truck percentages are averaged for all roadways within a county and functional class grouping. Using this 

percentage data, the total roadway volume for any segment is divided to auto and truck vehicle type 

categories. The transit data and school bus data is used to further disaggregate trucks, resulting in four 

vehicle groups (light-duty, school, transit, and other heavy-duty). 

From these groups, MOVES default Pennsylvania county VMT distributions by source type are used to 

divide the four groups into each of the MOVES source types. PennDOT hourly distributions for trucks 

and total traffic are used to create source type percentage breakdowns for each hour of the day. 

Vehicle Type Capacity Analysis Factors: Vehicle type percentages are provided to the capacity 

analysis section of PPSUITE to adjust the speeds in response to trucks. That is, a given number of larger 

trucks take up more roadway space than a given number of cars, and this is accounted for in the speed 

estimation process by adjusting capacity using information from the Highway Capacity Manual.

Vehicle Fleet and Population Data

The information on the vehicle fleet including the number and age of vehicles has a significant impact on 

forecasted start and evaporative emissions within MOVES. The MOVES Model requires the population 

of vehicles by the thirteen source type categories. Pennsylvania county vehicle registration data is used to 

estimate vehicle population for light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data is split to source types 

using MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania county population data. For transit buses, data from PennDOT 

and the National Transit Database (NTD) is used to estimate county transit bus totals. Other heavy-duty 

vehicle population values are based on VMT for each source type using the vehicle mix and pattern data 

discussed previously. The PPSUITE software automatically applies default MOVES2010a ratios of VMT 

and source type population (e.g. the number of miles per vehicle by source type) to the local VMT 

estimates to produce vehicle population.

Vehicle population is forecast based on projected household and population growth from Woods and 

Poole Inc. for each Pennsylvania county. The growth rate methodology includes:

 Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households.

 Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth assumptions.

Vehicle Age: Vehicle age distributions are input to MOVES for each county by the thirteen source types. 

The distributions reflect the percentage of vehicles in the fleet up to 31 years old. The most recent 

available registration download from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database has 

been used for the inventory. Due to insufficient data, only information for light-duty vehicles are used as 

local inputs; and, heavy-duty vehicles use the internal MOVES2010a national defaults. The registration 

data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. As a result, the data was converted to source 

types using the EPA convertor spreadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a emission model. 
Appendix C-1 11

Environmental, Fuel and Technology Assumptions

Information on environmental, fuel, vehicle technology and other control strategy assumptions were 

determined based on a review of MOVES2010a default information by the PaDEP.

Fuel Parameters: The same vehicle will produce different emissions using a different type of gasoline. 

Fuel control strategies can be powerful emission reduction mechanisms. The MOVES2010a default fuel 

formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and updated based on available local volumetric fuel 

property information. The gasohol market penetration and RVP values were updated for all the counties.

MOVES2010a default data was used for the rest of the parameters. 

Refueling Emissions: MOVES also allows users to calculate refueling emissions, the emissions created 

when vehicles are refueled at service stations. Pennsylvania includes refueling emissions in its area 

source inventory and not in its highway vehicle inventory. Refueling emissions are not included in the 

highway emissions inventory.

Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) Parameters: MOVES allows users to vary inputs 

depending on the I/M program in place for the area. The inputs include:

 Program start year.

 Stringency level.

 First and last model years subject to the program.

 Waiver rates.

 Compliance rates.

 Program type (test-only, test-and-repair, etc.) and effectiveness.

 Frequency of inspection (annual, biennial).

 Vehicle type coverage.

 Test type (idle, loaded, etc.)

The MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania assumptions were reviewed and modifications were made per 

actual program parameters. 

Environmental Variables: Evaporative emissions are influenced significantly by the temperatures of the 

surrounding air. Hourly temperatures have been compiled for each county based on information from 

WeatherBank, Inc. to specify temperatures from nine airports within the state. Ozone analysis 

temperature and humidity values were determined using the procedures documented in EPA’s technical 

guidance. Minimum and maximum temperatures for each month were converted to hourly temperatures 

using EPA convertors supplied with the MOVES2010a model.

A summary of the MOVES related inputs used for the inventory and future year estimates are attached 

with the submission.

 
Appendix C-1 12

SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE 

The previous sections have summarized the input data used for computing speeds and emissions for 

Pennsylvania. This section explains how PPSUITE and MOVES uses that input data to produce emission 

estimates. Exhibit 6 summarizes PPSUITE’s analysis procedure used for each of the RMS highway 

segments in the state.

Producing an emissions inventory with PPSUITE requires a process of disaggregation and aggregation. 

Data is available and used on a very small scale -- individual 1⁄2 mile roadway segments 24 hours of the 

day. This data needs to be processed individually to determine the distribution of vehicle hours of travel 

(VHT) by speed and then aggregated by vehicle class to determine input VMT to the MOVES emission 

model.

Volume/VMT Development

Before speeds can be calculated and MOVES run, volumes acquired from RMS must be adjusted and 

disaggregated. Such adjustments include factoring to future years, seasonal adjustments, and 

disaggregating daily volumes to each hour of the day and to each of the thirteen MOVES source types.

Determine Future Year Volumes: The RMS database contains up-to-date current year volumes. 

However, to conduct a future year analysis, these volumes must be factored to the year being analyzed. 

Growth factors have been prepared for each county and functional class grouping. These growth factors 

are applied to the base year RMS volumes to obtain future year estimates that can be utilized by 

PPSUITE.

Example:

A typical freeway link in the RMS database is I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County, 

Pennsylvania. This link has an urban/rural code=1 which indicates the link is in a rural area, and a 

functional class=1 indicating a rural freeway. 

The average annual daily traffic (AADT) from the RMS database for this link in 2008 is 12,077

vehicles/day.

Growth factors have been developed to factor the 2008 volume to future years. For example, to 

factor the 2008 volume to the year 2014, a growth factor of 1.282 would yield:

2014 volume = 12,077 vehicles/day x 1.282 = 15,483 vehicles/day

 
Appendix C-1 13

Exhibit 6: PPSUITE Speed / Emission Estimation Procedure

Data From PPSUITE Input Files PPSUITE Analysis Process Data from Roadway Source (RMS)

 The Following is Performed For

 Each RMS Roadway Segment

Percent Pattern Distributions Expand to 24 hourly volumes RMS AWDT Adjusted Volumes

Apply VMT Adjustments Adjust Volumes for Peak Spreading

(V/C thresholds for spreading)

Vehicle Type Patterns Disaggregate to Vehicle Type RMS Truck Percentages

 

 Transit Data 

 School Bus Data 

 Calculate Link & Signal Capacities Roadway Attributes

 (Lanes, FC code, UR code)

Speed/Capacity Lookup Table

 Calculate Link Calculate

Midblock Speed Approach Delay

Apply Post Speed VMT Adjustments

 

 Prepare MOVES CDM Files

 

 

 VHT by Annual RoadType SourceType Hourly Ramp

 Speed Bin VMT Fractions Population Fractions Fractions

 Per VMT 

 <Optional> 

Off-line File Preparation

 

 Vehicle Age

 Distribution Run MOVES Importer

 to convert county input data

 Hourly into MYSQL data format

 Temps/Humidity

 

 I/M 

 Parameters

 

 Fuel Run MOVES

 Parameters 

 
Appendix C-1 14

Seasonal Adjustments: PPSUITE takes the input daily volumes from RMS (which represents annual 

average daily traffic (AADT)) and seasonally adjusts the volumes to an average weekday in July. This 

adjustment utilizes factors developed for each functional class and urban/rural code. VMT can then be 

calculated for each link using the adjusted weekday volumes.

Example:

Again, assume the rural freeway link: I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania. The 

AADT for this link in 2008 is 12,077 vehicles/day. 

Seasonal factors have been developed for urban/rural code and functional class combinations. For 

an urban/rural code=1 and a functional class=1, the factor to convert from AADT to an average 

weekday in July is = 1.15.

Average Weekday July Volume = 12,077 x 1.15 = 13,889 vehicles/day.

Total VMT (daily) for this link is calculated as volume x distance. The distance of this link as 

obtained from RMS is 0.296 miles.

2008 VMT = 13,889 vehicles/day x 0.296 miles = 4,111 vehicle-miles / day.

Disaggregation to 24 Hours: After seasonally adjusting the link volume, the volume is split to each hour 

of the day. This allows for more accurate speed calculations (effects of congested hours) and allows 

PPSUITE to prepare the hourly VMT and speeds for input to the MOVES model.

Example:

To support speed calculations and emission estimates by time of day, the July weekday volume is 

disaggregated to 24 hourly volumes. Temporal patterns were previously developed from 

PennDOT count data and input to PPSUITE. For the I-80 rural freeway link with morning peak 

volumes similar to evening peak hours (neutral), the following temporal pattern is applied:

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

13579

1 11 31 51 71 92 12 3

Hour of Day

Percent of Daily

Using the I-80 segment, typical hourly volumes which result include:

8-9 a.m. 6.0% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 833 vehicles/hour (vph)

12-1 p.m. 5.0% x (4,111 vehicle .miles/ 0.296mi.) = 694 vph

5-6 p.m. 6.3% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 875 vph
Appendix C-1 15

After dividing the daily volumes to each hour of the day, PPSUITE identifies hours that are unreasonably 

congested. For those hours, PPSUITE then spreads a portion of the volume to other hours within the 

same peak period, thereby approximating the “peak spreading” that normally occurs in such over-capacity 

conditions.

 

Disaggregation to Vehicle Type: EPA requires VMT estimates to be prepared by source type, reflecting 

specific local characteristics. As a result, for Pennsylvania’s emission inventory runs, the hourly volumes 

are disaggregated to the thirteen MOVES source types based on count data assembled by PennDOT in 

combination with MOVES defaults.

Example:

Disaggregation of the total I-80 VMT to the various source types would include the following:

Total Volume 8-9 am = 833 vph

Source Type Volume 8-9 am:

Motorcycle 11 0.5% 4 vph

Passenger Car 21 54.7% 456 vph

Passenger Truck 31 27.9% 232 vph

Light Commercial Truck 32 9.3% 78 vph

Intercity Bus 41 0.1% 1 vph

Transit Bus 42 0.1% 1 vph

School bus 43 0.1% 1 vph

Refuse Truck 51 0.0% 0 vph

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 52 2.2% 19 vph

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 53 0.3% 2 vph

Motor Home 54 0.1% 1 vph

Combination Short-haul Truck 61 1.9% 16 vph

Combination Long-haul Truck 62 2.6% 22 vph

 

Speed/Delay Determination

EPA recognizes that the estimation of vehicle speeds is a difficult and complex process. Because 

emissions are so sensitive to speeds, it recommends special attention be given to developing reasonable 

and consistent speed estimates; it also recommends that VMT be disaggregated into subsets that have 

roughly equal speed, with separate emission factors for each subset. At a minimum, speeds should be 

estimated separately by road type. 

The computational framework used for this analysis meets and exceeds that recommendation. Speeds are 

individually calculated for each roadway segment and hour and include the delays encountered at signals. 

Rather than accumulating the roadway segments into a particular road type and calculating an average 

speed, each individual link hourly speed is represented in the MOVES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by 

speed bin file. This MOVES input file allows the specification of a distribution of hourly speeds. 

For example, if 5% of a county’s arterial VHT operates at 5 mph during the AM peak hour and the 

remaining 95% operates at 65 mph, this can be represented in the MOVES speed input file. For the 

model runs, distributions of speeds are input to MOVES by road type and source type by each hour of the 

day; VMT and VHT is accumulated by the same groupings for the application of the emission factors to 

produce resulting emission totals.
Appendix C-1 16

To calculate speeds, PPSUITE first obtains initial capacities (how much volume the roadway can serve 

before heavy congestion) and free-flow speeds (speeds assuming no congestion) from the speed/capacity 

lookup data. As described in previous sections, this data contains default roadway information indexed 

by the urban/rural code and functional class. For areas with known characteristics, values can be directly 

coded to the RMS database and the speed/capacity data can be overridden. However, for most areas 

where known information is not available, the speed/capacity lookups provide valuable default 

information regarding speeds, capacities, signal characteristics, and other capacity adjustment information 

used for calculating congested delays and speeds. An effort has been made to enhance the RMS data with 

traffic signal locations using other GIS signal data available from PennDOT’s Bureau of Highway Safety 

and Traffic Engineering.

Example:

The speed/capacity lookup table is used to obtain important data used for link speed calculations. 

For the I-80 link with an urban/rural code = 1 (rural) and a functional class = 1 (freeway), the 

lookup table provides information including the following:

freeflow speed = 65 mph

capacity = 1800 vph per lane

number of signals = 0 (per RMS linkage to GIS traffic signal locations)

This information is used along with the physical characteristics of the roadway to calculate the 

delay (including congestion) to travel this link during each hour of the day:

For example: The I-80 link is calculated to have a travel time, including delay of 17.76 seconds 

for the 8-9am hour.

Total travel time, in vehicle hours, for the 8-9am hour is calculated as:

VHT (8-9am) = 17.76 seconds x 833vph / 3600 sec/hr = 4.12 vehicle hours.

The result of this process is an estimated average travel time for each hour of the day for each highway 

segment. The average time can be multiplied by the volume to produce vehicle hours of travel (VHT).

HPMS and VMT Adjustments

Volumes must also be adjusted to account for differences with the HPMS VMT totals, as described 

previously. VMT adjustment factors are provided as input to PPSUITE, and are applied to each of the 

roadway segment volumes. These factors were developed from the latest HPMS download (conducted 

triennially); however, they are also applied to any future year runs. The VMT added or subtracted to the 

RMS database assumes the speeds calculated using the original volumes for each roadway segment for 

each hour of the day.
Appendix C-1 17

Example:

Using the Luzerne County I-80 rural freeway link example, the daily assigned volume is adjusted 

to account for reconciliation with the HPMS VMT. RMS VMT (in AADT) for Luzerne County 

rural freeways totals 962,559 vehicle miles in 2008. HPMS VMT (in AADT) as supplied by 

PennDOT and reported to FHWA totals to 990,088 vehicle miles for the rural freeways. A factor 

is developed by dividing the HPMS VMT by the RMS VMT:

HPMS adjustment factor for Luzerne County rural freeways = 990,088 / 962,559 = 1.029.

This factor is held constant in all future years. As an example, this adjustment is made to the 

I-80 freeway link VMT for the 8-9am hour after speed calculations are made, and produces the 

final July weekday VMT for this hour used for Ozone runs.

I-80 Link VMT (8-9am) = 833vph x 0.296 miles x 1.029 = 254 vehicle miles.

MOVES Emissions Run

After computing speeds and aggregating VMT and VHT, PPSUITE prepares traffic-related inputs needed 

to run EPA’s MOVES software, which is used to estimate emission factors in grams of pollutant per 

vehicle mile and to produce total emissions based on input VMT to the model. The process uses 

MOVES2010a, the officially released emissions model that was obtained directly from EPA.

 

The MOVES inputs prepared by PPSUITE include the following:

 Vehicle Type VMT.

 Vehicle Population.

 VMT fractions.

 Average speed distributions.

 Road Type Distribution.

 Ramp Fractions.

These files are text formatted files with a *.csv extension. The files are provided as inputs within the 

MOVES county data importer. In addition the remaining MOVES input data including temperatures, 

I/M programs, fuel and vehicle ages are prepared manually outside of the PPSUITE process.

The MOVES county importer is run in batch mode. This program converts all data files into the MYSQL 

formats used by the MOVES model. At that point a MOVES run specification file (*.mrs) is created 

which specifies options and key data locations for the run. MOVES is then executed in batch mode.

MOVES can be executed using either the inventory or rate-based approaches. For this highway 

emissions inventory, MOVES is applied using the inventory-based approach. Under this method, actual 

VMT and population are provided as inputs to the model; MOVES is responsible for producing the total 

emissions for the region. Under the rate-based approach, MOVES would produce emission factors, after 

which PPSUITE would apply the emission factors to the link data and calculate total regional emissions.
Appendix C-1 18

RESOURCES 

MOVES model

Modeling Page within EPA’s Office of Mobile Sources Website 

(http://www.epa.gov/omswww/models.htm) contains a downloadable model, MOVES users guide and 

other information. 

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010.

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State 

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office 

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010.

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other 

Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-046, December 2009.

Traffic Engineering

Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board, presents current knowledge and techniques 

for analyzing the transportation system.

Traffic Data Collection and Factor Development Report, 2008 Data, Pennsylvania Department of 

Transportation, Bureau of Planning and Research. 
Appendix C-1 19

Highway Vehicle Inventory Glossary 

AADT: Average Annual Daily Traffic, average of ALL days.

AWDT: Average Weekday Daily Traffic.

Basic emission rates: MOBILE emission rates based on the applicable Federal emission standards and 

the emission control technologies characterizing the fleet in various model years.

Emission rate or factor: Expresses the amount of pollution emitted per unit of activity. For highway 

vehicles, usually in grams of pollutant emitted per mile driven. 

FC: Functional code, applied in data management to road segments to identify their type (freeway, local, 

etc.).

Fuel volatility: The ability of fuel components to evaporate, thus entering the atmosphere as pollution. 

Fuel volatility is usually measured as Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) in pounds per square inch. The lower 

the RVP, the less volatile the fuel.

Growth factor: Factor used to convert volumes to future years.

HPMS: Highway Performance Monitoring System, PENNDOT’s official source of highway information 

and a subset of RMS.

I/M: Vehicle emissions inspection/maintenance programs ensure that vehicle emission controls are in 

good working order throughout the life of the vehicle. The programs require vehicles to be tested for 

emissions. Most vehicles that do not pass must be repaired.

MOBILE: The model EPA has developed and which Pennsylvania uses to estimate emissions from 

highway vehicles.

MOVES: The latest model EPA has developed with which Pennsylvania uses to estimate emissions from 

highway vehicles.

Pattern data: Extrapolations of traffic patterns (such as how traffic volume on road segment types varies 

by time of day, or what kinds of vehicles tend to use a road segment type) from segments with observed 

data to similar segments.

PPSUITE: Post-Processor for Air Quality, a set of programs that estimate speeds and processes MOBILE 

emission rates.

RMS: Roadway Management System, a database maintained by PENNDOT from traffic counts and field 

visits.

Segment (also referred to as link): Division of roadway in the PENNDOT Roadway Management 

System. Usually represents 0.5 mile segments of roadway. 

UR: Urban/rural code, applied in data management to identify whether a road segment is urban, small 

urban or rural.
Appendix C-1 20

VHT: Vehicle hours traveled.

VMT: Vehicle miles traveled. In modeling terms, it is the simulated traffic volumes times link length.

Vehicle Type: One of eight types, distinguished primarily by fuel type and/or weight, used in MOBILE 

modeling. 

Source Type: One of thirteen types, distinguished primarily by weight, used in MOVES modeling.

Road Type: Functional code, applied in data management to road segments to identify their type 

(rural/urban highways, rural/urban arterials, etc.)

County Data Manager: User interface developed to simplify importing specific local data for a single 

county or a user-defined custom domain without requiring direct interaction with the underlying MySQL 

database. 
APPENDIX C-2

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area

Emission Summary Tables

(Provided in Electronic Form Only)

Bureau of Air Quality

Department of Environmental Protection
[This page intentionally left blank.]
APPENDIX C-2

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area Emission Summary Tables

Appendix C-2-1

2004 July Weekday Emissions

Emission Summary

Emission Summary by Road Type

Emission Summary by Source Type

Emission Summary by Process

Appendix C-2-2

2009 July Weekday Emissions

Emission Summary

Emission Summary by Road Type

Emission Summary by Source Type

Emission Summary by Process

Appendix C-2-3

2018 July Weekday Emissions

Emission Summary

Emission Summary by Road Type

Emission Summary by Source Type

Emission Summary by Process
APPENDIX C-3

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area

MOVES Sample Input Files

Bureau of Air Quality

Department of Environmental Protection
[This page intentionally left blank.]
APPENDIX C-3

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area MOVES Sample Input Files
Appendix C-3 1

July Weekday MOVES Run Specification File Settings

Sample xml file format

<moves>

 <importer mode="county" >

 <filters>

 <geographicselections>

(Specify County to be run)

 <geographicselection type="COUNTY" key="42069" description="PENNSYLVANIA - Lackawanna County"/>

 </geographicselections>

 <timespan>

 <year key="2018"/>

 <month id="07"/>

 <day id="2"/>

<day id="5"/>

 <beginhour id="1"/>

<endhour id="24"/>

 <aggregateBy key="Hour"/>

 </timespan>

 <onroadvehicleselections>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

 <onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

 </onroadvehicleselections>

 <offroadvehicleselections>

 </offroadvehicleselections>

 <offroadvehiclesccs>

 </offroadvehiclesccs>

 <roadtypes>

 <roadtype roadtypeid="1" roadtypename="Off-Network"/>

 <roadtype roadtypeid="2" roadtypename="Rural Restricted Access"/>

 <roadtype roadtypeid="3" roadtypename="Rural Unrestricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="4" roadtypename="Urban Restricted Access"/>

 <roadtype roadtypeid="5" roadtypename="Urban Unrestricted Access"/>

 </roadtypes>

 </filters>

 <databaseselection servername="localhost" databasename="42069_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mi"/>

 <agedistribution>
Appendix C-3 2

 <description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

 <sourceTypeAgeDistribution>

(Specify Age Distribution data file name for county being run)

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\AgeDistribution\10Reg_RepCty\2018\42027_2018_SourceTypeAgeDistribution.csv</filename>

 </sourceTypeAgeDistribution>

 </parts>

 </agedistribution>

 <avgspeeddistribution>

 <description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

 <avgSpeedDistribution>

(Specify Average Speed Distribution data file name for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42069_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\avgSpeedDistribution.csv</filename>

 </avgSpeedDistribution>

 </parts>

 </avgspeeddistribution>

 <imcoverage>

 <description><![CDATA[]]></description>

 <parts>

 <imcoverage>

(Specify I/M Parameters file name for county being run)

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\IM\42000_2018_IMCoverage.csv</filename>

 </imcoverage>

 </parts>

 </imcoverage>

 <fuel>

 <description><![CDATA[]]></description>

 <parts>

 <FuelSupply>

 (Specify Fuel Supply data file name for county being run)

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\MOVES2010a\42000_2012_FuelSupply.csv</filename>

 </FuelSupply>

<FuelFormulation>

 (Specify Fuel Formulation data file name for county being run)

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\42000_FuelFormulation_MOVES2010a.csv</filename>

 </FuelFormulation>

 </parts>

 </fuel>

 <zonemonthhour>

 <description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

 <zoneMonthHour>

(Specify Meteorology data file name for county being run)

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Meteorology\2008\42069_2008_met.csv</filename>

 </zoneMonthHour>

 </parts>

 </zonemonthhour>

 <roadtypedistribution>

 <description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

 <roadTypeDistribution>

(Specify Road Type Distribution data file name for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42069_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\roadTypeDistribution.csv</filename>

 </roadTypeDistribution>

 </parts>

 </roadtypedistribution>

 <sourcetypepopulation>

 <description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

 <sourceTypeYear>

(Specify Vehicle Population data file name for county being run)
Appendix C-3 3

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42069_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\SourceTypePopulation.csv</filename>

 </sourceTypeYear>

 </parts>

 </sourcetypepopulation>

 <rampfraction>

 <description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

 <roadType>

(Specify Ramp Fractions data file name for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\RampFraction\rampfraction_defaults.csv</filename>

 </roadType>

 </parts>

 </rampfraction>

 <vehicletypevmt>

 <description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

(Specify Annual VMT and VMT Fractions file names for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

 <hpmsVTypeYear>

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42069_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hpmsVTypeYear.csv</filename>

 </hpmsVTypeYear>

<monthvmtfraction>

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_MonthFraction\42069_2018_MonthVMTFraction.csv</filename>

 </monthvmtfraction>

<dayvmtfraction>

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_DayFraction\42069_2018_dayvmtfraction.csv</filename>

 </dayvmtfraction>

<hourvmtfraction>

 <filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_JulyWkd_Inv_SIPGrw\\42069_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hourvmtfraction.csv</filename>

 </hourvmtfraction>

 </parts>

 </vehicletypevmt>

 </importer>

</moves>

Sample mrs file format

<runspec>

 <description><![CDATA[MOVES2010 RunSpec Created by CENTRAL4 Scenario: LACK 2018 JULWKD JulyWkd Emission Inventory with user's data]]></description>

<modelscale value="INV"/>

 <modeldomain value="SINGLE"/>

 <geographicselections>

(Specify County to be run)

 <geographicselection type="COUNTY" key="42069" description="PENNSYLVANIA - Lackawanna County"/>

 </geographicselections>

 <timespan>

 <year key="2018"/>

<month id="07"/>

<day id="5"/>

 <beginhour id="1"/>

 <endhour id="24"/>

<aggregateBy key="Hour"/>

 </timespan>

 <onroadvehicleselections>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>
Appendix C-3 4

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

 </onroadvehicleselections>

 <offroadvehicleselections>

 </offroadvehicleselections>

 <offroadvehiclesccs>

 </offroadvehiclesccs>

 <roadtypes>

 <roadtype roadtypeid="1" roadtypename="Off-Network"/>

 <roadtype roadtypeid="2" roadtypename="Rural Restricted Access"/>

 <roadtype roadtypeid="3" roadtypename="Rural Unrestricted Access"/>

 <roadtype roadtypeid="4" roadtypename="Urban Restricted Access"/>

 <roadtype roadtypeid="5" roadtypename="Urban Unrestricted Access"/>

 </roadtypes>

 <pollutantprocessassociations>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="11" processname="Evap Permeation"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="12" processname="Evap Fuel Vapor Venting"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="13" processname="Evap Fuel Leaks"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="11" processname="Evap Permeation"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="12" processname="Evap Fuel Vapor Venting"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="13" processname="Evap Fuel Leaks"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>
Appendix C-3 5

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="11" processname="Evap Permeation"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="12" processname="Evap Fuel Vapor Venting"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="13" processname="Evap Fuel Leaks"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

 </pollutantprocessassociations>

 <databaseselections>

<databaseselection servername="localhost" databasename="early_NLEV" description=""/>

<databaseselection servername="localhost" databasename="calevii08" description=""/>

 </databaseselections>

 <inputdatabase servername="" databasename="" description=""/>

 <uncertaintyparameters uncertaintymodeenabled="false" numberofrunspersimulation="0" numberofsimulations="0"/>

<geographicoutputdetail description="COUNTY"/>

 <outputemissionsbreakdownselection>

<modelyear selected="false"/>

<fueltype selected="false"/>

<emissionprocess selected="true"/>

 <onroadoffroad selected="true"/>

<roadtype selected="true"/>

<sourceusetype selected="true"/>

 <movesvehicletype selected="false"/>

<onroadscc selected="false"/>

 <offroadscc selected="false"/>

 <estimateuncertainty selected="false" numberOfIterations="2" keepSampledData="false" keepIterations="false"/>

 <sector selected="false"/>

 <engtechid selected="false"/>

 <hpclass selected="false"/>

 </outputemissionsbreakdownselection>

 (Specify output database file name for county being run)

 <outputdatabase servername="localhost" databasename="42069_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mo" description=""/>>

<outputtimestep value="Hour"/>

 <outputvmtdata value="true"/>

 <outputsho value="true"/>

 <outputsh value="true"/>

 <outputshp value="true"/>

 <outputshidling value="true"/>

 <outputstarts value="true"/>

 <outputpopulation value="true"/>

 (Specify input database file name for county being run)

 <scaleinputdatabase servername="localhost" databasename="42069_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mi" description=""/>

 <pmsize value="0"/>

 <outputfactors>

 <timefactors selected="true" units="Hours"/>

 <distancefactors selected="false" units="Miles"/>

 <massfactors selected="false" units="Grams" energyunits="Million BTU"/>

 </outputfactors>

 <savedata>

 </savedata>

 <donotexecute>

 </donotexecute>

 <generatordatabase shouldsave="false" servername="" databasename="" description=""/>

 <donotperformfinalaggregation selected="false"/>

<lookuptableflags scenarioid="" truncateoutput="false" truncateactivity="false"/>

 <internalcontrolstrategies>

<internalcontrolstrategy classname="gov.epa.otaq.moves.master.implementation.ghg.internalcontrolstrategies.rateofprogress.RateOfProgressStrategy"><![CDATA[

useParameters No

]]></internalcontrolstrategy>

 </internalcontrolstrategies>

</runspec>