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EEMMEERRGGEENNCCYY

ZIMBABWE 

FOOD SECURITY UPDATE 

NOVEMBER 2005 

ALERT STATUS: 

NORMAL 

WARNING 

WATCH 

EMERGENCY

CONTENTS 

Summary and Implications ..............1 

Staple Cereal Availability Remains 

Precarious at Sub-National Levels ..1 

Cost of Living Continues to Rise .....2 

Shortage and High Costs of Seeds 

and Fertilizers..................................3 

Poor Vegetation and Water Supplies 

........................................................4 

Rainfall Season Starts.....................4 

SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS 

Efforts by the Government of Zimbabwe and the international community to import 

enough maize to close the initial marketing year deficit have not succeeded in 

securing the adequate availability of affordable cereal for the general population. 

Fuel shortages have seriously constrained in-country grain distribution but do not 

seem to fully explain the limited availability of grain in the country. The ever-rising 

cost of living remains a major contributor to household food insecurity in both rural 

and urban Zimbabwe. Food aid programs by the World Food Programme (WFP) and 

C-SAFE and other humanitarian agencies that started in November have temporarily 

reduced the food insecurity of nearly 3 million Zimbabweans. 

Although the agricultural season has started, shortages of fertilizers and seed maize 

have not been sufficiently addressed. High maize seed prices made it extremely 

difficult for farmers to procure the seed they needed. The government’s input support 

program only started moving the inputs in November, and consequently, the majority 

of the farmers who benefited were likely unable to take advantage of the early rains 

and the full potential of the rainfall season. Shortages of tractors, draught animals, 

fuel and spare parts also hinder land preparation throughout the whole country. The 

deaths of draught animals in the southern part of the country during the prolonged 

2005 dry season have further reduced the tillage capacity in these areas. As a result, 

the food security prospects for the 2006/07 marketing year do not look bright. 

SEASONAL TIMELINE 

CURRENT HAZARD SUMMARY 

Shortage and high cost of staple cereal food stuffs and other non food basic commodities, such as bath soap and 

washing powder and accommodation 

Erosion of purchasing power by very high inflation (411 percent in October 2005) 

Shortages of fuel, electricity and essential medicines 

STAPLE CEREAL AVAILABILITY REMAINS PRECARIOUS AT SUB NATIONAL LEVELS 

Considerable progress has been made in procuring maize from outside the country by the government, the private sector 

and the humanitarian community. By the end of October 2005, at least 548,200 MT of maize had been procured, 

reducing the initial marketing year maize deficit from about 1.1 million MT to about 520,000 MT (see Figure 1, 

following page). If the annual deficit was spread evenly throughout the marketing year, it would average about 

92,000 MT per month. The current maize importation rate of about 80,000 MT per month is making up a considerable 

proportion of the monthly gap. At this rate about 90 percent of the initial deficit would be filled by the end of the 

current marketing year. The remaining gap could be closed by other food aid pipelines outside WFP, such as the 

FEWS NET/Zimbabwe 

5 Thornburg Ave 

Mt Pleasant 

Harare 

FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development 

www.fews.net 

Tel: 263 4 744878 

Fax: 263 4 744878 
Zimbabwe Food Security Update November 2005 

2 

picture is not reflected at sub-national levels. Household level food security monitoring in October indicated a 

precarious staple food availability situation. Maize grain and maize meal were, at best, only occasionally available in 

both urban and rural markets throughout the country. In each district, the availability of maize is lowest in the remote 

parts, furthest from markets. This scenario suggests serious in-country maize distribution bottlenecks. 

Rural households in the north-central districts of the 

country could access some locally produced maize, 

albeit at high prices, and the number of producers 

offering maize for sale is diminishing. In the rest of 

the country, local production was largely depleted and 

maize was accessible only with extreme difficulty in 

October. The Grain Marketing Board (GMB) 

continues to be the major source of maize purchased in 

the most rural districts, followed by open markets. 

Local or own production contributed the smallest 

proportion to rural household maize consumption in 

October. The GMB maize supplies did not improve 

between September and October and remained 

inadequate and erratic. The availability of other foods 

is generally poor because rural markets are poorly 

developed, and their function has been further 

weakened by the shortage of fuel and the general 

decline of the Zimbabwean economy. The contribution of vegetable gardening to household nutrition and income 

peaked in September and October but is expected to decline as most water sources dry up. 

Figure 1: National Maize Availability

Sources: SAGIS, Ministry of Finance and FEWSNET 

Food aid increased significantly in November 2005 with the start of the Vulnerable Groups Feeding Programmes by 

WFP and C-SAFE. This will improve maize availability in most rural districts of the country. With the start of the 

rains, mangoes, mazhanje (a wild fruit found in most rural areas of the country), mushrooms and other wild foods will 

provide important snacks for many households and are an accessible alternative to staple foods for a good number of 

poor households, and income earning opportunities are generation through their sale. 

COST OF LIVING CONTINUES TO RISE 

Continuing economic decline and the ever-rising cost of 

living sustained their onslaught on poor households in 

rural and urban Zimbabwe in October 2005. While the 

national economic output is forecasted to fall by another 

7 percent from last year’s output level by December 

2005, inflation also sustained its upwards trends since 

April 2005. Annual inflation, measured by the Central 

Statistical Office’s (CSO) consumer price index (CPI), 

rose 411 percent in October 2005, 51.2 percentage 

points more than the September annual inflation of 

359.8 percent (see Figure 2). This is well over the 

government’s original planned target inflation rate of 80 

percent by year end. The divergence between planned 

targets and actual performance casts serious doubts on 

whether the authorities have the ability and the right 

tools to tame the runaway inflation. 

In Harare, the value of a basket for a low income 

household monitored by the Consumer Council of 

Zimbabwe (CCZ) followed the same upwards trend as 

annual inflation. It added about 20 percentage points on 

the September value to be over Z$11.7 million by October 2005. A very small proportion of urban households took 

home this level of income in October 2005; the majority, therefore, struggled to make ends meet. 

Figure 2: Cost of the monthly expenditure basket for 

a low income urban household of six in Harare, May

to October 2005 

0 

2000000 

4000000 

6000000 

8000000 

10000000 

12000000 

14000000 

Apr05

May05 

June05

July05 

Aug 05 

Sep 05

Oct 05 

Value of C CZ Basket

and M inim um w ages(Z$)

0 

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

350 

400 

450 

Annual Inflation (% ) 

Food Items Non Food 

Annual Inflation Monthly Inflation 

Source: FEWS NET, CSO and CCZ 
Zimbabwe Food Security Update November 2005 

3
 

SHORTAGES AND HIGH COST OF SEEDS AND FERTILIZERS 

Maize is by far the major food crop in Zimbabwe, and the performance of this crop has enormous food security 

implications the country. It is for this reason that this analysis focuses on maize. According to a report presented to the 

Parliament of Zimbabwe on November 2, 2005 by the Portfolio Committee on Lands, Land Reform, Resettlement and 

Agriculture, the state of the nation’s preparedness for the 2005/06 agricultural season is dire. The Portfolio Committee 

reached this conclusion after considering written and oral submissions by representatives of seed companies, fertilizer 

companies, the financial sector, the energy sector and Ministries of Agriculture, Water Resources and Land Reform and 

Resettlement. The report is a sound and objective situation analysis of the agricultural sector. One would expect such a 

report to come out of the Ministry of Agriculture no later than March of every year. 

The Portfolio Committee established that the country had about 26,000 MT of hybrid seed maize and between 4,000 

and 5,000 MT of open pollinated varieties of seed maize. Importation of the estimated seed maize deficit of 20,000 MT 

had not taken place by end the end of October, due to foreign currency shortages. AREX presented the Portfolio 

Committee with information contrary to the above picture. According to their analysis, about 70,500 MT of seed maize 

was available in the country at the start of the season. However, there is no other evidence to support this position. 

It used to take about 36,000 MT of seed maize to produce enough maize to feed the entire population of Zimbabwe and 

satisfy its other uses of maize. Given the reduction in national average maize yields, resulting from the reduced 

contribution of the highly productive large scale commercial farms to maize production, as well as the critical shortages 

of fertilizers in the current agricultural season, close to 56,000 MT of seed maize may be required this agricultural 

season for the country to produce enough maize to feed the nation. 

Fertilizer companies reported to the Portfolio Committee that they had nothing in stock for the summer crop. The 

companies failed to secure foreign currency to import the critical inputs for manufacturing fertilizers. If foreign 

currency were to be made available, the fertilizer industry would only be able to produce less than half of the 

450,000 MT of fertilizer that it once supplied to the local market, before the land redistribution. 

Seed maize is a controlled commodity in Zimbabwe. The government sets the price for this commodity every year, and 

maize seed producing companies hold onto their seed 

until the government gazettes the new price for the 

seed. Following the announcement of the new 

controlled prices of seed maize in September/October, 

significant quantities of the commodity become 

readily available on markets throughout the country. 

This was a huge improvement from the previous two 

years, when only GMB and the parallel markets held 

seed maize. The seed maize was, however, not 

moving; few farmers were buying the seed due to its 

exorbitant cost. Between August 2002 and October 

2005 the price of short season hybrid seed maize 

increased 160 times, yet in the same period the 

controlled producer price for maize went up only 

about 80 times (see Figure 3). As of October 2005 a 

short season hybrid seed maize was selling at about 

Z$31,000/kg. This represents a more than 138 percent 

increase on last season’s prices. 

The government’s input support program only started moving the inputs in November. The majority of the farmers 

earmarked to benefit from the program are likely to be unable to take advantage of the early rains and the full potential 

of the rainfall season. 

The shortage of tractors, fuel and spare parts will hamper land preparation throughout the whole country. With the 

extended dry period in 2005, smallholder farmers in the southern half of the country have lost large numbers of draught 

animals due to shortages of grazing and water to drink. 

Figure 3: Cost of Seed Maize Compared to Maize 

Producer Prices 

0 

5,000 

10,000 

15,000 

20,000 

25,000 

30,000 

35,000 

A ug-03 Sep-03 A ug-04 Oc t -05 

Z$/kg 

Maiz e (s hort s eas on) GMB Maiz e Produc er Pric es 

Source: FEWSNET 
Zimbabwe Food Security Update November 2005 

4
 

POOR VEGETATION AND WATER SUPPLIES 

The poor 2004/05 rainfall season could not support good vegetation in most parts of the country, and because of the 

rather late onset of the 2005/06 rainfall season, dry conditions persisted for a longer period than normal, particularly in 

southern Zimbabwe (see Figure 4). This resulted in critical grazing shortages in Masvingo and the Matebelelands that 

caused significant deaths of cattle and wildlife. Not only have the cattle losses deprived a significant number of rural 

households of their draft power at a time when cattle are needed for preparing the land, they also increased the 

vulnerability of the affected households to poverty and food insecurity. 

Figure 4: The Vegetation Condition for Period 11 – 20 November 2005 Compared to 

Long term Average Vegetation Conditions for the Same Period 

Source: NOAA 

RAINFALL SEASON STARTS 

The 2005/06 rainfall season began in the first half of 

November 2005. While significant amounts of rainfall were 

received in mid-November, only the eastern parts of 

Matebeleland North, the northwestern parts of Midlands, the 

northern parts of Mashonaland West and central and the 

southern parts of Harare had received more than 75 percent 

of normal rainfall by November 23 (see Figure 5). Southern 

parts of Midlands and Manicaland and the greater parts of 

Masvingo and Matebeleland South had received very little 

rains by the same time. 

The major agricultural activities in October and November 

have been land clearing, plowing and planting. 

Figure 5: Percentage of Normal Rainfall for the 

Period October 1 to November 23, 2005

Source: Dept of Meteorological Services