DOE/EIA-0579(94)

Distribution Category UC-950

Energy Use and Carbon Emissions:

Some International Comparisons

April 1994

Energy Information Administration

Office of Energy Markets and End Use

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the

Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position

of the Department of Energy or any other organization.
Contacts

Energy Use and Carbon Emissions: Some International Comparisons is prepared by the Energy

Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use (EMEU). General

questions concerning the content of the report may be referred to W. Calvin Kilgore (202-586-

1617), Director of EMEU; Arthur Andersen (202-586-1441), Director of Energy Markets and

Contingency Information Division; or Derriel Cato (202-586-6574), Chief of the Short-Term

Forecasting and Contingency Branch. Detailed questions may be addressed to Lowell Feld (202-

586-9502). All maps were created by Kevin M. Wright (202-586-0873).
Preface

This study was undertaken in response to a request by U.S. Representative Philip R. Sharp,

Chairman of the U.S House of Representatives Subcommittee on Energy and Power.

Congressman Sharp’s request sought a review of international energy and economic data to

compare energy use patterns across countries and in the context of major energy end-use sectors.

The purpose of the review was to identify differences in energy use patterns which could be

suggestive of opportunities both to economize on the use of fossil fuel energy (i.e., oil, natural

gas, and coal) and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Congressman Sharp’s request also asked for additional information that is not contained in this

report. This report reflects a broad review of available international data and a report on the

results of this review with particular emphasis on the developed countries. In coming months,

additional material will be prepared for Congressman Sharp which will focus on sectoral energy

use patterns in developing countries. Other work will also examine the potential impact of

alternative policies and technological choices on energy consumption and carbon emissions

patterns.

Common Abbreviations Used

Btu British thermal unit (the amount

of energy required to raise the

temperature of 1 pound of water

1 degree fahrenheit; 8 gallons of

gasoline contain 1 million Btu)

CPEs Centrally-planned economies

DCs Developing countries

DD Degree day

E/GDP Ratio of energy consumption to

gross domestic product

E/GNP Ratio of energy consumption to

gross national product

GDP Gross domestic product

GNP Gross national product

GPO Gross product originating

G-7 Group of Seven (Canada, France,

Italy, Japan, Germany, United

Kingdom, United States)

OECD Organization for Economic

Cooperation and Development

(for list of countries in OECD,

please see Appendix, endnote #2)

PPP Purchasing power parity

Quads Quadrillion Btu

iii
Table of Contents

Highlights .................................................... 1

Introduction ................................................... 3

1. Energy and Carbon Emissions in a World Context .................... 7

GDP, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions: World Trends .............. 8

Carbon Intensity and Non-Fossil Fuels ............................... 9

Fuel Mix in the OECD and Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

GDP, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions: Developed vs. Developing . . . . . . 11

Energy Consumption: Developed vs. Developing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Electricity, Energy, and GDP: Developed vs Developing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Carbon Emissions: Developed vs. Developing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Gross Domestic Product: Developed vs. Developing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP: Developed vs. Developing . . . . . . . . . . 16

Developed Countries: Carbon Emissions; Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP 17

Developing Countries: Carbon Emissions; Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP 18

Economic Development and National Energy Use Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Population, Economic Growth, Energy and Carbon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Economic Development and World Fossil Fuel Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Economic Development and World Carbon Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

2. Energy Use, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions in the G-7 . . . . . . . . . 23

World Oil Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

G-7 Energy Consumption by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

GDP and Energy Consumption per Capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Energy-Related Carbon Emissions per Dollar of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Energy-Related Carbon Emissions per Capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Energy-Related Carbon Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

3. G-7 Sectoral Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Industry

Industrial Sector Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Industrial Sector Carbon Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Industrial Energy Intensity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Energy-Intensive Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Transportation

Transportation Sector Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Transportation Sector Carbon Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Transportation Energy Consumption per Capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Automobile Efficiency and Utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Vehicle Registrations per Capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Gasoline Prices and Taxes, 1992 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Residential/Commercial

Residential/Commercial Sector Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Service Sector Share of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Residential/Commercial Sector Carbon Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Residential Space Heating per Dwelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

Residential Space Heating per Square Foot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Electricity

Electricity Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Electricity Sector Carbon Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Electricity Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

Electricity Consumption per Dollar of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Electricity Generation Efficiency, 1991 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Electricity Generation by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Appendix: Data Sources and End Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

v
Highlights

In recent years, there has been a growing level of concern that anthropogenic (i.e., caused by

human activities) emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called "greenhouse gases" are

contributing to "global warming." (Greenhouse gases also include: methane; nitrous oxide;

chlorofluorocarbons and related compounds; non-methane volatile organic compounds; and water

vapor.1

) As a result of this concern, interest has risen regarding possible cost-effective options

to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Interest has focused primarily on limiting the burning

of fossil fuels, which releases carbon (mainly in the form of carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere.

One of the most frequently mentioned options in this regard has been reducing the amount of

energy needed to produce a given unit of economic output. This option is seen by many as

offering the potential for stabilizing (or even reducing) carbon emissions without sacrificing

economic growth. A similar consequence could be achieved by substituting low carbon fuels

(such as natural gas) for high carbon fuels (coal, for instance), or noncarbon-emitting fuels

(hydroelectric, nuclear, solar, etc.) for fossil fuels.

Energy use and economic welfare are closely intertwined. Economically advanced societies use

more energy per capita than those which are not. The process of economic development entails

increasing levels of consumption of commercially-produced energy. However, historical

experience demonstrates that the relationship between economic growth and energy use is not

unique. Nations experiencing similar paths of economic expansion may exhibit significant

differences in energy use growth rates. Moreover, nations with similar levels of economic output

per capita vary widely in per capita energy consumption. Additionally, nations with similar

levels of energy consumption may have significantly different rates of carbon emissions.

Examining historical variations in energy use growth rates and differences in international energy

use patterns substantiates the conclusion that there is scope for long run flexibility in the

relationship between energy consumption, economic activity, and carbon emissions.

This review surveys energy use and carbon emissions patterns in a world context. The

presentation is divided into three major sections. In Section 1, an analysis of energy use and

carbon emissions is presented contrasting trends in economically developed and developing areas

of the world since 1970. Section 2 presents a disaggregated view of the "Group of Seven" (G-7)

key industrialized countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and

the United States). This is followed in Section 3 by an examination of sectoral energy use

patterns within each of the G-7 countries. At a later time, a disaggregated review of selected

developing countries will be completed as a supplement to this document.

It is hoped that the materials presented here will promote a better understanding of the character

of change evident in world energy use and carbon emissions over the past two decades. The

report may also help to prioritize future policy analyses which seek to identify opportunities for

energy conservation and development of alternate fuels.

Key conclusions of this study include:

The relationship between economic development and energy use varies across country

groups. In developed countries, energy use grew slowly relative to economic growth during

the 1970’s and 1980’s. In the developing countries (including the current and former

centrally-planned economies), energy use overall increased as fast or faster than economic

growth, even after the 1973 and 1979 oil price shocks.

1
Energy consumption and carbon emissions grew fastest in the developing countries.

Most of the growth in worldwide energy consumption and carbon emissions over the past

two decades took place in developing countries such as China, Brazil, India, and South

Korea. These countries generally use much more energy (and release more carbon) in

generating a dollar of economic output than do the developed countries.

Fuel use patterns in the developing countries were consistently more carbon-intensive

than in the developed countries over the past two decades. China and Canada represent

extremes in terms of their carbon emissions per unit of energy use, with China’s emissions

(reflecting heavy use of coal) twice those of Canada (with its large hydro power resources).

The world share of noncarbon-emitting energy sources increased over the past two

decades, particularly in the developed countries. Most of this increase was due to growth

in nuclear power generation. In the developing countries, noncarbon-emitting energy sources

grew from 4 percent in 1970 to 9 percent of total energy supply in 1991. Noncarbonemitting energy sources grew even more rapidly in the developed countries, increasing their

share from 7 percent in 1970 to 17 percent in 1991.

Partly as a result of these trends, the developed countries’ share of world carbon

emissions declined between 1970 and 1992, although it remains large. In 1992, for

instance, the developed countries accounted for 48 percent of world energy-related carbon

emissions (down from 57 percent in 1970). Between 1970 and 1992, carbon emissions

increased only 30 percent in the developed countries, compared to 80 percent in the

developing countries.

Electricity use worldwide increased significantly faster than overall energy use,

particularly in the developing countries. This conclusion in turn suggests a potential

course of action: namely, the widespread adoption of best-available electricity generation

technologies.

Within the developed countries, energy use patterns vary widely. Energy use per capita,

for instance, is more than twice as high in Canada and the United States than in Japan and

G-7 Europe. Such differences between developed countries have persisted over time despite

a common tendency towards less energy use per capita and per unit of output.

2
Introduction

Energy Use and Carbon Emissions:

Some International Comparisons

This report examines international energy use patterns, trends, and energy-related carbon

emissions since 1970. The main focus of this study is on the developed countries, represented

by the members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD2

.

The study is organized as follows: 1) the OECD is placed in a world context; 2) aggregate-level

information is then presented for an important part of the OECD, namely the Group of Seven

(G-7) major industrialized countries (the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom,

France, Italy, and Germany - defined in this report as western Germany only, except where

indicated); and 3) individual economic sectors within the G-7 countries are broken out for

detailed review.

Background: Economic Growth, Since the industrial revolution, consumption of fossil

Energy Consumption and the

Environment

fuels (oil, gas, and coal) has been critical to economic

growth. Early on, however, it was apparent that fossil

fuel consumption had unwanted adverse environmental

effects - namely, pollution of the air, water, and land. In recent years, concern over these effects

has been heightened by the possibility that the release of greenhouse gases--the most important

of which are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide--contribute to global warming. Human

activities promote emissions of each of these gases, adding to existing natural background levels

contained in the atmosphere. Quantitatively, the most important man-made greenhouse gas

emission is carbon dioxide, which is released with the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas.

Background: The June 1992 To address these (and other) environmental concerns,

"Earth Summit" representatives from more than 140 countries met in

June 1992 at the United Nations Conference on

Environment and Development (also known as the "Earth Summit") in Rio de Janeiro. At the

Earth Summit, participating countries agreed to "protect the climate system" by taking

"precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and

mitigate its adverse effects." Earth Summit participants also agreed: 1) that all Parties should

adopt national programs to address greenhouse gas emissions and to periodically report on them;

2) that developed countries "should take the lead in combating climate change," through such

measures as technology cooperation with developing countries; 3) that developing countries had

"specific needs and special circumstances"; and 4) that industrial nations should aim to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 (although there is no requirement to

do so). On October 7, 1992, the U.S. Senate ratified the global climate change treaty.

The Future: Options for Reducing Since fossil fuel consumption is responsible for a large

Greenhouse Gas Emissions share of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it

follows that reducing fossil fuel consumption will help

significantly in cutting such emissions. Lowering fossil fuel consumption can be accomplished

by 1) shifting away from fossil fuels towards "cleaner" sources of energy (such as solar and

wind) or 2) by reducing the amount of fossil energy needed to produce a given unit of economic

output (either by structural shifts away from energy-intensive industries, or by increased

efficiency of energy use at various levels of the economy).

3
Fuel Mix and Carbon Emissions Between 1970 and 1991, world carbon emissions rose

50 percent, while energy use rose 64 percent.

Emissions rose more slowly than energy use, in part because reliance on noncarbon-emitting

energy sources increased. In the OECD, the energy share of noncarbon fuels rose from 7 percent

to 17 percent between 1970 and 1991, reflecting mainly the increased use of nuclear power.

During the same period, OECD reliance on natural gas and coal changed little. However, oil’s

share of the OECD’s overall energy consumption fell from 54 percent to 43 percent.

Noncarbon-emitting energy sources have played a relatively smaller role in the fuel mix of

developing countries. In 1970, the noncarbon fuel share of developing countries’ energy

consumption was 4 percent, increasing to 9 percent by 1991. Again, much of the change resulted

from increasing reliance on nuclear power. The largest overall change in developing countries’

fuel mix, however, involved diminished reliance on coal and increased reliance on natural gas.

For the world as a whole, were the fuel mix of 1970 to be projected to 1991, carbon emissions

would have been 11 percent (or 624 million metric tons) higher than actual levels. For the

developed countries, emissions would have been 11 percent (or about 306 million metric tons)

higher given the OECD fuel mix of 1970. For the developing countries, energy consumption at

1970 fuel mix rates would have increased carbon emissions by 13 percent (or 408 million metric

tons).

Factors Affecting Energy Use The energy crises and oil price spikes of the 1970’s

Trends sparked extensive debate and research on the

determinants of energy demand and the relation of

energy demand to economic growth. This research revealed that a variety of energy consumption

patterns and growth paths are consistent with any given standard of living or economic growth

rate. This helps account for the wide degree of variation in international energy use patterns

revealed in this report.

In the 1970’s and early 1980’s, for instance, the rate of growth in OECD energy use fell

markedly relative to the rate of OECD economic expansion. Substantial aggregate reductions in

energy use per unit of economic output were achieved throughout the OECD during this period,

particularly in response to the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979. As a group, the G-7 countries

achieved a 54-percent increase in per capita income between 1970 and 1991, while energy

consumption per unit of output declined 27 percent. In contrast, the ratio of energy use to

economic output actually rose slightly in the developing countries over that time period.

A variety of factors helps explain this observed divergence in energy use patterns over different

country groupings. Of central importance are levels of economic development and the rates of

economic change over time. Expanded levels of economic activity, for instance, are highly

correlated with increased levels of energy consumption and carbon emissions. Economic growth,

which is often accompanied by industrialization, electrification, and improved living standards,

helps foster demand for energy in the form of industrial feedstocks, heat, light, and motive

power. Not surprisingly, therefore, average per capita consumption in countries with developed

economies is six times greater than in the developing countries. As developing countries evolve

into newly industrialized economies based on modern systems of transportation, distribution and

power generation, rapid rates of growth in energy demand are likely to occur.

The rate of population growth is another key factor affecting economic development and the

4
demand for energy. In the developed countries, relatively slow population growth over the past

several decades relative to rates of economic expansion have been reflected in sharply higher per

capita incomes. In contrast, many developing countries have experienced rapid population

growth, meaning that economic expansion in these areas has served largely to maintain rather

than improve per capita living standards. In this context, energy demand growth may serve not

so much to improve living standards but to sustain those so far achieved.

Still another factor conditioning national energy consumption and carbon emissions patterns is

the relative mix of energy-intensive industries in particular countries. Some countries, for

instance, contain a higher proportion of relatively energy-intensive raw materials and chemical

processing industries. Such differences in industrial mix can result in considerable variation in

energy demand even among countries with similar levels of per capita income. Differential factor

endowments explain much of this variation. Countries with relatively cheap, abundant energy

resources (like Canada and the United States), therefore, will commonly specialize in energyintensive activities.

Differences in energy use technologies to produce comparable products can also give rise to

variations in overall energy demand. Technological advance in a particular production process

may permit savings in the energy needed to yield a unit of product. Technology practices often

differ widely across nations. Identifying best-available practices and promoting widespread

adoption of such practices can help foster energy conservation. The degree to which variation

in energy demand among countries with similar economic circumstances is due to differences in

the penetration of energy efficient technologies is uncertain. However, in particular industries

at particular points in time, significant differences have been identified.

Energy prices and social policy also significantly condition national energy demand and carbon

emission characteristics. Countries with centrally-planned economies, for instance, generally have

pursued economic development policies which foster growth in energy-intensive industries and

set energy prices at artificially low levels. As a result, these countries have been commonly

characterized by large energy requirements and carbon emissions per unit of economic output

compared to more market-oriented economies.

The relative importance of these six factors (economics, population, industrial mix, technology,

prices and social policy) on energy demand has fluctuated across countries and over time. The

search for and implementation of efficiency improvements, for instance, accelerated mainly after

the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979 and were focused primarily in the developed countries.

Although these oil price shocks prompted similar reductions in housing, transportation, and

industrial energy intensities throughout the developed countries, national differences in energy

use were not eliminated. Countries with heavy reliance on energy-intensive industries at the

beginning of the 1970’s, for example, were still reliant on them in 1990. A similar finding is

true for personal transportation. Since 1970, however, countries with the highest taxes on

gasoline also had the highest rate of growth in vehicle registrations. Thus, factors other than

price must also have played a strong role in the demand for personal transportation.

A review of historic trends and cross-national comparisons indicates substantial flexibility in the

relationship between energy consumption and economic activity. Changes in energy prices, for

instance, appear to accelerate efforts to conserve on energy use in developed market economies.

Despite the historical experience, uncertainty remains regarding the extent to which energy

conservation can achieve stabilization or reduction in energy demand without reducing living

5
standards and/or raising costs of production. Two potential paths to increased conservation exist.

One involves identifying best available practices with regard to energy use and encouraging

widespread implementation of such practices. The other involves improving technology so that

underlying production possibilities can be sustained while overall energy use is reduced or

carbon-based energy is replaced by noncarbon or renewable energy sources.

Report Outline This report presents an array of national- and sectorallevel energy use indicators across countries and across

time. The level of detail presented here is highly aggregated, and as such does not focus on

specific energy end-use practices in any one country or at a detailed level within a particular

economic sector. However, these summary measures are helpful tools in identifying the effects

of differing energy end-use practices. The identification of broad differences in energy-use trends

across areas and economic sectors will help to focus further analyses regarding national and

international energy and environmental policies. For example, evidence showing a growing share

for electricity in worldwide energy consumption underscores the importance of minimizing

carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector. This conclusion in turn suggests a

potential course of action: namely, the widespread adoption of best-available electricity generation

technologies. Thus, the broad review of international energy use patterns presented here should

be viewed as a necessary and important starting point for identifying potential opportunities for

energy conservation and carbon emission control.

Data Sources Energy data used in this report were gathered primarily

from three main sources: 1) the Energy Information

Administration’s International Energy Annual 1992; 2) the OECD’s Energy Balances of OECD

Countries 1990-1991 (and prior editions); and 3) the OECD’s Energy Statistics and Balances of

Non-OECD Countries. Economic and price information is taken mainly from the OECD’s

National Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 and Volume 2: 1978-1990; The WEFA Group’s World

Economic Service: Historical Data, July 1993; and the International Energy Agency’s Energy

Prices and Taxes, First Quarter 1993. Other data sources for this report include: 1) the

American Automobile Manufacturer’s Association (World Motor Vehicle Data, 1993 Edition) for

world motor vehicle registration trends; and 2) the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory for information

on residential space heating, automobile utilization, and gasoline fuel efficiency. More detailed

sources for all graphs are included in the appendix of this report.3 Data are available upon

request. All gross domestic product4 statistics for the G-7 countries are expressed in 1985 U.S.

dollars, calculated on a purchasing power parity5 basis. For world comparisons, GDP’s are

expressed in 1985 U.S. dollars, calculated on a standard exchange-rate basis.

6
Energy and Carbon Emissions in a World Context

The purpose of this section is to place the developing countries (defined throughout the report to include

the current and former centrally-planned economies) and developed countries (members of the OECD)

in a global perspective with regards to such indicators as: economic output; energy consumption; and

energy-related carbon emissions.

Key findings of this section include:

Since 1970, world economic growth rates have exceeded increases in energy use and energyrelated carbon emissions. Between 1970 and 1992, world gross domestic product increased 85

percent, while energy use and carbon emissions rose 66 percent and 51 percent, respectively.

Growth in world carbon emissions has been less than growth in energy consumption. This has

resulted partly from the increased relative importance of noncarbon-emitting energy sources, primarily

nuclear power, and partly from a switch away from coal and towards natural gas in the non-OECD.

Economic growth has been slightly faster in developing than developed countries. OECD

economies grew 83 percent between 1970 and 1992, compared to 88 percent in the non-OECD.

Since 1970, energy use trends have differed markedly for developed and developing countries.

Between 1970 and 1992, OECD energy consumption grew only half as fast as GDP; in contrast,

energy consumption grew faster than GDP in the developing countries.

Since 1970, electricity use (and associated carbon emissions) worldwide have increased faster

than overall energy use and GDP. This trend has been especially pronounced in the developing

countries.

The OECD consistently used less energy to produce a unit of economic output than the rest of

the world. In 1991, for instance, the OECD produced a unit of output using little more than half

the energy required by the non-OECD.

Nonetheless, developed countries, with 16 percent of world population as of 1992, accounted for

52 percent of world energy consumption. The OECD countries in 1992 consumed about six times

as much energy per capita as the non-OECD countries. Between 1970 and 1992, however, nonOECD countries increased their share of world energy consumption from 39 percent to 48 percent.

The developed countries as of 1992 accounted for about 48 percent of energy-related world

carbon emissions. As with energy consumption, the OECD’s share of world carbon emissions

declined between 1970 and 1992 (from 57 percent to 48 percent), while emissions from the

developing countries grew rapidly.

Evolution of energy use and carbon emissions patterns in the developing countries towards

patterns more like the developed countries is likely to have profound implications for world

energy use and carbon emissions. If developing countries had consumed fossil fuels and emitted

carbon at the same per capita rates as developed countries did in 1990, for instance, world fossil fuel

consumption would have tripled, while world carbon emissions would have nearly tripled from actual

levels.

WORLD

CONTEXT

7
GDP, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions:

World Trends

Index: 1970=100

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

50

100

150

200

Real GDP Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions

This figure compares changes between 1970 and 1992 in: 1) real GDP (measured on an

exchange-rate basis); 2) energy consumption; and 3) energy-related carbon emissions for the

world as a whole, using an index based on 1970 levels for each indicator.

World GDP in constant dollars grew more than 85 percent between 1970 and 1992, while

energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions increased 66 percent and 51

percent, respectively.

Energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions grew during the 1970’s, stabilized

after the 1979 oil price shock, increased again following the oil price collapse of the mid1980’s, and levelled off as a result of an economic slowdown in the early 1990’s.

Increased use of noncarbon-emitting energy sources and substitution from coal to natural gas

caused carbon emissions to grow less rapidly than energy use.

WORLD

CONTEXT

8
Carbon Intensity and Non-Fossil Fuels

Tons of Carbon per Billion Btu

1970 1990

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

China Non-OECD OECD Canada

Carbon Emissions per Unit of

Energy Consumption

Quadrillion Btu

Non-OECD Geo/Other

OECD Geo/Other

Non-OECD Hydro

OECD Hydro

Non-OECD Nuclear

OECD Nuclear

0 5 10 15 20

1970

1980

1990

Non-Fossil Energy Consumption:

OECD vs. Non-OECD

The amount of carbon emitted per unit of energy consumption depends on the mix of energy

types consumed. Countries like China, which consume large amounts of carbon-rich coal,

emit the most carbon per Btu of energy. Countries like Canada, on the other hand, with

large shares of non-fossil fuels (hydroelectric, nuclear, geothermal, etc.) are the least "carbon

intensive."

The non-OECD is carbon intensive relative to the OECD, due largely to its lower share of

nuclear power and the higher share of coal in its fuel mix. Both OECD and non-OECD

carbon intensity fell between 1970 and 1990, partly as a result of increased non-fossil fuel

consumption, and partly because of reductions in coal use relative to natural gas.

Of all non-fossil fuels, nuclear grew the most rapidly between 1970 and 1990, from 0.9

quads to 20.3 quads (a 2000 percent increase). Much of this growth was concentrated in the

OECD countries. During the same period, hydroelectric generation nearly doubled, from

12.2 quads to 22.5 quads.

Commercial power generated from geothermal, solar, wind, and other non-hydroelectric

"renewables" rose more than fourfold between 1970 and 1990.

It is important to point out that in both the OECD and non-OECD, the most important

"renewable" sources of energy are fuelwood and waste, neither of which are normally

reflected in commercial energy data (and are not included in the above graph). In the

OECD, consumption of fuelwood and waste was stable at about 3.5 quads between 1970 and

1990. According to the United Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook (1979, 1982, and 1991

editions), non-OECD consumption of these "non-commercial" fuels rose from 11 quads to

17 quads during the period.

WORLD

CONTEXT

9
Fuel Mix in the OECD and Non-OECD

Percent of OECD Energy Consumption

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear/Renewables

OECD

Percent of Non-OECD Energy Consumption

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Oil Coal Gas Nuclear/Renewables

Non-OECD

Between 1970 and 1991, oil’s share of total OECD energy consumption fell sharply, from

54 percent to 43 percent. Oil was replaced in the fuel mix mainly by nuclear and other

renewables, whose share increased from 7 percent to 17 percent. During the same period,

the shares of natural gas and coal remained approximately stable.

In contrast to the OECD, oil’s share in the non-OECD held steady between 1970 and 1991,

while the natural gas share grew rapidly (from 12 percent to 23 percent). Nuclear and

renewables also grew during the period. However, the decline in coal use relative to natural

gas contributed most to lower carbon emissions intensity in the developing countries.

For the world as a whole, the share of fossil fuels in the overall energy mix fell from 94

percent in 1970 to 87 percent in 1991. Among the fossil fuels, only natural gas increased

its share, from 17 percent to 22 percent of world energy consumption. The shares of oil and

coal both fell sharply - oil from 47 percent to 40 percent, and coal from 30 percent to 26

percent.

WORLD

CONTEXT

10
GDP, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions:

Developed vs. Developing

Index: 1970=100

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

50

100

150

200

Real GDP Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions

Developed Country Trends:

GDP, Energy, Carbon

Index: 1970=100

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

50

100

150

200

250

Energy Consumption Real GDP Carbon Emissions

Developing Country Trends:

GDP, Energy, Carbon

These figures compare changes between 1970 and 1992 in: 1) real GDP (measured on an

exchange-rate basis); 2) energy consumption; and 3) energy-related carbon emissions for the

developed and developing countries (including the current and former centrally-planned

economies), using an index based on 1970 levels for each indicator.

For the developed countries, GDP grew significantly faster than energy consumption between

1970 and 1992. This took place as a result of shifts away from the industrial sector and

towards the service sector, reductions in energy intensity within sectors, and improvements

in energy efficiency throughout the economy.

For the developing countries (including current and former centrally-planned economies),

energy consumption grew slightly faster than GDP between 1970 and 1992 partly as a result

of electrification, industrial development, and growth in private vehicle ownership.

In both developing and developed countries, carbon emissions grew slower than energy

consumption and GDP, largely as a result of increased output of nuclear and hydroelectric

power (which emit no carbon). (See attached map for country detail on world carbon

emissions per dollar of economic output)

The decline in energy consumption and carbon emissions after 1990 in developing countries

is due to the economic collapse of the former Soviet Union and eastern European countries.

WORLD

CONTEXT

11
Energy Consumption: Developed vs. Developing

Quadrillion Btu

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

50

100

150

200

OECD

Non-OECD

Percent of World Total

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

OECD

Non-OECD

In absolute terms, total world energy demand grew 66 percent from 1970 to 1992, from 208

quadrillion Btu (quads) to more than 340 quads. Non-OECD energy demand more than

doubled during the period, while OECD energy demand grew 40 percent.

The OECD share of world energy consumption fell significantly between 1970 and 1992,

while the non-OECD share grew rapidly. In fact, if not for the disintegration of the Soviet

bloc, which resulted in sharp downturns in economic output and energy consumption in that

region, the non-OECD share of world energy demand likely would have surpassed the OECD

share during the early 1990’s.

Escalating oil prices were a major factor in the decline in OECD energy consumption during

the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. As oil prices fell in the mid-1980’s, OECD energy

consumption growth resumed.

Energy demand continued to grow in developing countries despite the oil price shocks of the

1970’s. This was due largely to the prevalance of price controls and energy subsidies in

many of these countries, especially those with centrally-planned economies.

WORLD

CONTEXT

12
Electricity, Energy, and GDP: Developed vs Developing

Index: 1970=100

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

0

50

100

150

200

250

Electricity GDP Energy

Developed Countries

Index: 1970=100

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Electricity Energy GDP

Developing Countries

These figures compare changes between 1970 and 1990 in: 1) electricity consumption;

2) total energy consumption; and 3) real GDP (measured on an exchange-rate basis) for the

developed and developing countries (including the current and former centrally-planned

economies), respectively, using an index based on 1970 levels for each indicator.

Throughout the world, electricity consumption grew significantly faster than overall energy

consumption (and GDP) between 1970 and 1990.

For the developed countries, electricity consumption doubled between 1970 and 1990, while

GDP and energy consumption grew 80 percent and 36 percent, respectively.

For the developing countries (including current and former centrally-planned economies),

electricity consumption more than tripled between 1970 and 1990, while energy consumption

and GDP each approximately doubled.

WORLD

CONTEXT

13
Carbon Emissions: Developed vs. Developing

Million Metric Tons

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Non-OECD

OECD

Percent of World Total

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Non-OECD

OECD

Overall, world carbon emissions increased 51 percent between 1970 and 1992, from around

4 billion tons in 1970 to nearly 6 billion tons in 1992. Most of this growth was accounted

for by the non-OECD (developing and centrally-planned economies) countries, where carbon

emissions grew 82 percent during the period. In contrast, OECD carbon emissions grew 28

percent between 1970 and 1992.

As a result of these differing growth rates, the OECD share of world carbon emissions fell

from 57 percent in 1970 to around 48 percent in 1992. In contrast, the non-OECD produced

43 percent of world carbon emissions in 1970, surpassed 50 percent in 1982, and reached

54 percent in 1989, before falling back slightly to 52 percent in 1992 (mainly as a result of

sharp economic declines in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe).

As a general rule, world carbon emissions have grown along with world energy consumption,

although at a slower rate. In the non-OECD, for instance, energy consumption more than

doubled between 1970 and 1992, while carbon emissions increased 82 percent. In the

OECD, energy consumption increased 40 percent between 1970 and 1992, while carbon

emissions grew 28 percent.

The slower growth of carbon emissions relative to energy consumption between 1970 and

1992 can be explained largely by increased nuclear and hydroelectric power generation

during the period.

The United States was the world’s largest single source of energy-related carbon emissions

in 1990, accounting for 22 percent, followed by the former Soviet Union (17 percent) and

China (11 percent). (See attached map for country detail on world carbon emissions)

WORLD

CONTEXT

14
Gross Domestic Product: Developed vs. Developing

Trillion 1985 Dollars*

1970 1980 1990

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Non-OECD OECD

*Exchange rate basis

World gross domestic product (in constant 1985 dollars, measured on an exchange-rate basis)

grew 87 percent between 1970 and 1990, from $8.5 trillion to $15.9 trillion. The nonOECD, which contains more than 80 percent of the world’s population, has consistently

accounted for less than 35 percent of world economic output.

The developed countries as of 1990 accounted for 66 percent of world gross domestic

product. The OECD’s share of world GDP declined from 68 percent in 1970, due to a

slightly faster rate of economic growth in the developing countries.

In developed countries, real per capita GDP increased 51 percent between 1970 and 1990,

from about $8,100 to $12,200 per person. In comparison, per capita income in the

developing countries, where population grew rapidly, increased during the same period by

35 percent, from about $900 to $1,200 per person.

WORLD

CONTEXT

15
Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP:

Developed vs. Developing

Thousand Btu per 1985 Dollar*

1970 1980 1990

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

OECD Non-OECD

*Exchange rate basis

In the non-OECD, energy consumption grew more rapidly than GDP between 1970 and

1990. As a result, non-OECD energy consumption per dollar of GDP increased during the

period, to more than 30,000 Btu per dollar of output (in constant 1985 dollars, measured on

an exchange-rate basis).

In contrast to the non-OECD countries, OECD energy consumption grew much more slowly

than GDP between 1970 and 1990. This resulted in a sharp decline in the OECD energy

consumption per unit of economic output, from 22,000 Btu per dollar in 1970 to only 16,500

Btu per dollar in 1990.

As a result of these opposing trends, the gap between OECD and non-OECD energy use per

dollar of GDP widened significantly between 1970 and 1990. As a consequence, by 1990

the OECD was able to produce a unit of economic output using little more than half the

energy required by the developing countries.

WORLD

CONTEXT

16
Developed Countries:

Carbon Emissions; Energy Consumption per Dollar of

GDP

Million Metric Tons

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

G-7 Other OECD

Energy-Related Carbon Emissions

Thousand Btu per 1985 Dollar

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

5

10

15

20

25

Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP

Other OECD G-7

Total OECD energy-related carbon emissions grew 28 percent (or 627 million tons) between

1970 and 1992, from 2.3 billion metric tons to 2.9 billion metric tons.

"Group of Seven" (G-7) carbon emissions alone, however, grew only 19 percent between

1970 and 1992. Meanwhile, carbon emissions in the rest of the OECD (i.e., Australia, New

Zealand, and Europe outside the G-7) more than doubled (from 226 to 472 million metric

tons).

G-7 energy consumption per constant dollar of GDP (measured on an exchange-rate basis)

declined significantly between 1970 and 1992; in contrast, energy consumption per dollar

of GDP increased slightly in the other developed countries during the period.

The G-7 is broken out for three main reasons: 1) it makes up a sizeable share of the OECD

in terms of GDP, energy consumption, and carbon emissions; 2) both aggregate and sectoral

data are readily available for this group of countries; and 3) energy use per dollar of GDP

has declined most rapidly in the G-7, which may provide broader lessons for improving

energy performance elsewhere.

WORLD

CONTEXT

17
Developing Countries:

Carbon Emissions; Energy Consumption per Dollar of

GDP

Million Metric Tons

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Other Developing Former Soviet Union China

Energy-Related Carbon Emissions

Thousand Btu per 1985 Dollar

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP

China Former Soviet Union Other Developing

Energy-related carbon emissions by developing countries increased 82 percent (or 1.4 billion

metric tons) between 1970 and 1991, from 1.7 billion metric tons to 3.1 billion metric tons.

China and the former Soviet Union combined accounted for nearly 58 percent (or 805

million metric tons) of the total increase in developing countries’ carbon emissions between

1970 and 1991.

China and the former Soviet Union also consistently consumed more energy per dollar of

output between 1970 and 1991 than other developing countries. China’s energy consumption

per constant dollar of GDP (measured on an exchange-rate basis) declined significantly after

the mid-1970’s, but as of 1991 still remained more than twice as high as other developing

countries.

WORLD

CONTEXT

18
Economic Development and National Energy Use Patterns

GNP Per Capita (Thousand 1985 Dollars per Person)

Thousand Btu Per 1985 Dollar of GNP

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25

0

20

40

60

80

1990 Energy Consumption per Dollar of GNP vs.

Per Capita GNP for 83 Countries

DCs

CPEs

OECD

Qatar

UAE

China Bahrain

Romania & Poland

Trinidad

Czechoslovakia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Switz.

Luxembourg

Japan

South Africa

Finland

USA

Canada

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Denmark Italy

USSR

Singapore

NZ

Spain

Ireland

UK

France

Germany

This figure compares: 1) energy consumption per dollar of gross national product (GNP,

measured in constant 1985 dollars on an exchange-rate basis); and 2) GNP per capita for 83

countries (centrally-planned economies - CPE’s, other developing countries - DC’s, and

developed countries - OECD) for 1990.

The distribution pattern of this figure suggests three distinct country groupings: 1) developed

countries tend to display relatively high per capita incomes and low levels of energy

consumption per dollar of GNP (E/GNP); 2) developing countries exhibit low per capita

incomes and low E/GNP ratios; and 3) centrally-planned economies exhibit the opposite

pattern of the developed countries, with low per capita incomes and high energy

consumption per dollar of economic output.

Among the developing countries, major oil producers tend to consume the most energy per

unit of GNP, while maintaining relatively high per capita income levels.

Centrally-planned economies tend to use the most energy per unit of GNP, largely because

their policies have kept energy prices artificially low.

WORLD

CONTEXT

19
Population, Economic Growth, Energy and Carbon

Percent Change (1990 vs. 1970)

Non-OECD OECD

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Energy Consumption GDP Carbon Emissions Population

Relative Change in Selected

Indicators: 1970-1990

Index: 1970=100

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991

0

50

100

150

200

250

Population, Energy Consumption

Trends: OECD vs. Non-OECD

Non-OECD Energy Non-OECD Population OECD Energy OECD Population

Growth in energy demand (and energy-related carbon emissions) is driven by two main

forces - economic growth and population increases - both of which increase demands on

many resources, including energy. (See attached map for country detail on world carbon

emissions per capita)

This has been particularly true in the developing countries, where population grew 49 percent

between 1970 and 1990. Also promoting rapid growth in energy demand in the developing

countries during this period were rapid electrification, industrialization, and increased

automobile ownership.

Between 1970 and 1990, energy demand grew faster than population in both the non-OECD

and the OECD. Energy demand also grew slightly faster than GDP in the non-OECD, but

significantly slower than GDP in the OECD.

Throughout the world, carbon emissions grew faster than population, but slower than GDP

and energy consumption between 1970 and 1990.

As a result of more rapid growth in world energy demand relative to population between

1970 and 1991, the amount of energy consumed per capita worldwide increased by 13

percent, from 56 to 63 million Btu per person.

Growth in energy consumption per capita was more than twice as rapid in the non-OECD

than in the OECD (35 percent vs. 15 percent) between 1970 and 1991. As of 1991, the

OECD consumed nearly six times more energy per person than the non-OECD (204 million

Btu vs. 36 million Btu per person).

WORLD

CONTEXT

20
Economic Development and World Fossil Fuel

Consumption

Quadrillion Btu

Non-OECD World

0

400

800

1,200

1990 World Fossil Fuel Consumption Assuming G-7 and

OECD Fossil Fuel Consumption Rates per Capita

Actual rates If OECD rates If G-7 rates

This figure compares: 1) actual 1990 fossil fuel (oil, coal, and natural gas) consumption by

the developing countries and the world as a whole; 2) hypothetical 1990 fossil fuel

consumption if other countries had consumed as much fossil energy per person as the OECD

average; and 3) hypothetical 1990 fossil fuel consumption if other countries had consumed

as much fossil energy per person as the G-7 average.

If the rest of the world in 1990 had consumed fossil fuels at the same rate as the OECD,

world fossil fuel consumption would have tripled from actual levels, while non-OECD fossil

fuel consumption would have grown about five-fold.

If the rest of the world in 1990 had consumed fossil fuels at G-7 average rates, world fossil

fuel consumption would have more than tripled, while developing countries fossil fuel

consumption would have grown more than five-fold.

In sum, if fossil fuel consumption patterns in the rest of the world evolve towards OECD

per capita rates, world fossil fuel consumption is likely to rise significantly.

WORLD

CONTEXT

21
Economic Development and World Carbon Emissions

Billion Metric Tons

Non-OECD World

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 World Carbon Emissions Assuming G-7 and

OECD Carbon Emissions Rates per Capita

Actual rates If OECD rates If G-7 rates

This figure compares: 1) actual 1990 energy-related carbon emissions by the developing

countries and the world as a whole; 2) hypothetical 1990 energy-related carbon emissions

if other countries had emitted as much carbon per person as the OECD average; and 3)

hypothetical 1990 energy-related carbon emissions if other countries had emitted as much

carbon per person as the G-7 average.

If the rest of the world in 1990 had emitted carbon at the same rate as the OECD, world

carbon emissions would have nearly tripled from actual levels, while non-OECD carbon

emissions would have more than quadrupled.

If the rest of the world in 1990 had emitted carbon at G-7 average rates, world carbon

emissions would have more than tripled, while developing countries carbon emissions would

have grown more than five-fold.

In sum, if carbon emissions patterns in the rest of the world evolve towards OECD carbon

emissions per capita rates, world carbon emissions are likely to rise significantly.

WORLD

CONTEXT

22
Energy Use, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions

in the G-7

The purpose of this section is to provide information on differences in energy consumption

patterns within the G-7, and to look at changes in these patterns by examination of aggregate

indicators such as: world oil prices; energy consumption trends by fuel type; GDP (measured

on a purchasing power parity basis), energy consumption, and carbon emissions per capita;

energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions per dollar of output; and overall

energy-related carbon emissions.

Key findings of this section include:

G-7 energy use per real dollar of output fell significantly between 1970 and 1991. Most

of this decline was achieved immediately following the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979.

Following the oil price decreases of the mid-1980’s, energy use per dollar of output in the

G-7 tended to stabilize.

G-7 energy-related carbon emissions were relatively stable between 1970 and 1992.

Although G-7 energy consumption increased 32 percent between 1970 and 1992, energyrelated carbon emissions over the same period increased only 19 percent.

This reduction in G-7 carbon/GDP ratios since 1970 reflects two important trends.

First, G-7 countries reduced the amount of energy required to produce a unit of output.

Second, G-7 consumption of nuclear and hydroelectric power (which emit no carbon) grew

significantly, from around 6 percent in 1970 to nearly 16 percent of total energy

consumption in 1992. As a result, although fossil fuel use increased between 1970 and

1992, its share in the total fuel mix declined significantly.

Except in the United States, G-7 energy use per capita increased between 1970 and

1991. Differences among countries within the G-7 tended to persist over time.

CO2

23
World Oil Price

1985 Dollars per Barrel*

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

*Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost

The price of oil (Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost) fluctuated greatly in constant 1985

dollars between 1970 and 1992, rising from less than $8 per barrel in 1970 to nearly $45 per

barrel in 1980, before falling sharply in the mid-1980’s.

These fluctuations in oil prices have had far-reaching implications for energy consumption

patterns and levels. For instance, the price shocks of the 1970’s were followed by rapid

declines in energy consumption per dollar of output in the developed countries. The price

collapse of the mid-1980’s tended to moderate this trend.

CO2

24
G-7 Energy Consumption by Fuel Type

Quadrillion Btu

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Total Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear/Hydro

Percent of Total Energy Consumption

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear/Hydro

Total energy consumption in the G-7 increased 36 quads between 1970 and 1992. Of this

increase, nuclear and hydroelectric power accounted for more than 16 quads. G-7 fossil fuel

consumption grew about 20 quads during this period, of which natural gas accounted for 7

quads, coal for 7 quads, and oil for 6 quads.

As a share of G-7 total energy consumption, oil fell from 52 percent in 1970 to 43 percent

in 1992, while natural gas and coal remained nearly constant. During the same period,

nuclear and hydroelectric power increased their share of G-7 energy consumption, from 6

percent to 16 percent.

The decline in oil’s share of G-7 energy consumption was caused in large part by the oil

price spikes of the 1970’s. Since the oil price collapse of the mid-1980’s, oil’s share has

not recovered.

CO2

25
GDP and Energy Consumption per Capita

1985 Dollars per Person

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

United States Germany Japan Canada

France Italy United Kingdom

GDP per Capita

Million Btu per Person

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

100

200

300

400

500

Canada United States Germany France

United Kingdom Japan Italy

Energy Consumption per Capita

From 1970 to 1991, U.S. per capita income increased 34 percent. Over the same time frame,

Japan’s per capita income increased 104 percent, Italy’s 70 percent, and the G-7 average 54

percent.

Although per capita GDP increased 54 percent throughout the G-7 between 1970 and 1991,

energy consumption per capita increased only 12 percent during the same period.

Canada has generally maintained the highest energy consumption per capita among the G-7

countries. This results largely from Canada’s heavy reliance on hydroelectric power to

support energy-intensive industries, such as aluminum manufacturing.

In the early 1970’s, U.S. and Canadian per capita energy consumption ratios were

approximately equal. Following the 1973 oil price shock, however, U.S. per capita energy

consumption remained constant or fell slightly, while Canada’s energy per capita ratio

increased. As a result of these divergent trends, the United States in 1992 consumed about

20 percent less energy per person than Canada. Other G-7 countries consistently consumed

far less energy per capita than Canada and the United States between 1970 and 1992.

While energy use per dollar of output fell sharply between 1970 and 1991, the amount of

energy consumed per capita increased in all G-7 countries except the United States.

For the United States, population grew 17 percent between 1970 and 1986, while energy

consumption increased only 11 percent, resulting in a decline in energy consumption per

capita of 5.4 percent. Between 1986 and 1992, however, U.S. energy consumption grew

nearly twice as fast as population, resulting in a 4.6 percent increase in energy consumption

per capita.

CO2

26
Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP

Between 1970 and 1991, U.S. real GDP increased 66 percent, while energy consumption rose

Thousand Btu per 1985 Dollar

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Canada United States United Kingdom France

Germany Japan Italy

only 21 percent, indicating that economic output and energy consumption need not rise in

lockstep. For the G-7 as a whole, real GDP increased 79 percent between 1970 and 1991,

while energy consumption increased 31 percent.

Most of this improvement followed the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979. Following the

1986 oil price collapse, energy use per dollar of output stabilized or even increased in the

G-7. For example, U.S. and Canadian energy use per dollar of output increased between

1986 and 1991 (by 0.2 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively), while the G-7 as a whole

decreased slightly (by 3.7 percent).

Energy use per dollar of output declined an average of 27 percent in the G-7 between 1970

and 1991. In relative terms, Germany fell the most (33 percent), France fell the least (11

percent), and the United States fell 27 percent. Differences between G-7 countries tended

to persist over time.

Canada consistently consumed by far the most energy per dollar of output among G-7

countries between 1970 and 1991. This resulted largely from Canada’s relatively high

reliance on energy-intensive industries based on the use of hydroelectric power. Overall,

hydroelectricity accounted for 28 percent of Canada’s total energy consumption in 1991,

compared to 4 percent in the United States and 6 percent for the G-7 as a whole.

CO2

27
Energy-Related Carbon Emissions per Dollar of GDP

Metric Tons per Thousand 1985 Dollars

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Canada United States United Kingdom Germany

Japan Italy France

The amount of carbon emitted per constant dollar value of output (carbon/GDP) in the G-7

countries fell significantly between 1970 and 1991. Throughout the period, the United States

and Canada had the highest carbon/GDP ratios, while Japan, Italy, and France had the

lowest.

In all G-7 countries, the reduction in carbon/GDP ratios exceeded the decline in E/GDP

ratios from 1970 to 1991. The largest relative decline in carbon/GDP ratios in those years

occurred in Germany (43 percent), France (39 percent), and Japan (39 percent), with the

smallest in Italy (22 percent), the United Kingdom (29 percent), the United States (30

percent), and Canada (35 percent).

CO2

28
Energy-Related Carbon Emissions per Capita

Metric Tons per Person

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

United States Canada United Kingdom Germany

Japan France Italy

The amount of carbon emitted on a per capita basis in the G-7 countries increased only 2

percent between 1970 and 1992.

As a general rule, differences in per capita carbon emissions between G-7 countries tended

to persist over time. Two important exceptions are France and Germany, where the growth

in nuclear power resulted in a significant reductions in per capita carbon emissions beginning

in the late 1970’s.

In general, carbon emissions per capita rose slowly during the 1970’s, fell sharply for a few

years following the 1979 oil crisis, but then tended to level off or rise slowly as oil prices

fell in the mid-1980’s.

CO2

29
Energy-Related Carbon Emissions

Million Metric Tons

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

United States Japan Germany United Kingdom

Canada France Italy

In 1992, the G-7 alone accounted for 84 percent of OECD energy-related carbon emissions.

Between 1970 and 1992, OECD energy-related carbon emissions grew 28 percent, to 2,879

million metric tons. During the same period, G-7 energy-related carbon emissions grew 19

percent, to 2,407 million metric tons.

The United States has consistently accounted for about one half of energy-related carbon

emissions within the G-7.

Among the other G-7 countries, Japanese energy-related carbon emissions grew 53 percent

between 1970 and 1992, while Italy increased 43 percent, and Canada 35 percent. U.K.,

French, and German energy-related carbon emissions remained approximately constant or

fell slightly during the period.

CO2

30
G-7 Sectoral Analysis

The purpose of this section is to provide information on structural differences among G-7

countries which help explain: 1) differences in energy consumption patterns within the G-7; and

2) changes in those patterns since 1970. To this end, the section will examine energy use

patterns and trends in the major economic sectors (industrial, transportation, and

residential/commercial, including services); as well as in electricity generation.

6

Key findings of this section include:

The G-7 countries differ in their sectoral shares of national energy consumption. The

U.S. transportation sector, for instance, accounted in 1990 for 28 percent of U.S. energy

consumption; in contrast, Japan’s transportation sector accounted for only about 18 percent

of Japan’s energy use.

G-7 sectoral shares have changed over time. Between 1970 and 1990, for instance, the

transportation sector significantly increased its share of G-7 energy consumption, especially

in Europe. During the same period, residential/commercial’s share also increased throughout

the G-7, particularly in Japan, while industry’s share of total energy consumption declined

throughout the G-7.

The G-7 countries differ in their energy use patterns within sectors. In Canada and the

United States, for instance, energy-intensive industries (such as paper and pulp, primary

metals, and petroleum refining) in 1990 accounted for around 60 percent (or more) of total

industrial energy consumption. In other G-7 countries, energy-intensive industries were

relatively less important, and appear to have declined since 1970.

The G-7 countries differ in their lifestyles and living standards. The average American,

for instance, has a relatively larger home and more cars compared to citizens of other G-7

countries. Throughout the G-7, living standards (as measured by vehicles per person,

appliance ownership, etc.) increased significantly between 1970 and the early 1990’s.

The G-7 countries differ in their retail energy prices, primarily due to differences in

their tax regimes. Gasoline prices, for instance, ranged in 1992 from $3.89 per gallon in

Italy to $1.13 per gallon in the United States. Average fleet efficiencies tend to be higher

in those countries with higher gasoline prices.

31
Industrial Sector Energy Consumption

Percent of National Energy Consumption

Japan

Italy

Germany

Canada

United States

France

United Kingdom

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1970

1980

1990

Quadrillion Btu

United States

Japan

Germany

Canada

France

United Kingdom

Italy

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1970

1980

1990

Energy consumption by the industrial sector rose slightly in the G-7 between 1970 and 1990,

with the largest increases in Japan, the United States, and Canada.

Despite this, the share of energy consumed by G-7 industrial sectors fell on average from

48 percent in 1970 to 40 percent in 1990. As of 1990, industrial sector energy consumption

accounted for 56 percent of total Japanese energy consumption, compared to between 36 and

41 percent in the United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Germany and France.

INDUSTRY

32
Industrial Sector Carbon Emissions

Percent of Energy-Related Carbon Emissions

Japan

Italy

Germany

Canada

France

United Kingdom

United States

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1970

1980

1990

Million Metric Tons

United States

Japan

Germany

United Kingdom

Italy

Canada

France

0 100 200 300 400 500

1970

1980

1990

G-7 industrial sector carbon emissions declined from 921 million metric tons in 1970 to 875

million metric tons in 1990, with significant reductions in France, Germany, and the United

Kingdom.

Between 1970 and 1990, the relative amount of carbon emitted by G-7 industrial sectors fell

on average from 48 percent of total carbon emissions to 38 percent.

In relative terms, France reduced its industrial carbon emissions the most, from 57 percent

in 1970 to only 38 percent of its national energy-related carbon emissions in 1990. Rapid

growth in nuclear power consumption by French industry was largely responsible for this

reduction.

In 1990, the industrial sector accounted for only 33 percent of U.S. carbon emissions, the

lowest share in the G-7 group. In comparison, the Japanese industrial sector accounted for

59 percent of Japan’s energy-related carbon emissions in 1990.

INDUSTRY

33
Industrial Energy Intensity

Thousand Btu per 1985 Dollar GPO*

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

0

10

20

30

40

50

Canada United States United Kingdom Germany

Japan France Italy

*GPO: Gross Product Originating in Industrial Sector

Between 1978 and 1990, industrial energy intensities (defined as the amount of energy

consumed per constant 1985 dollar of output produced by the industrial sector) generally

declined throughout the G-7, especially in Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom. After

1986, however, this trend slowed in many G-7 countries, and reversed in the United States.

Thus, between 1978 and 1986, the U.S. industrial energy intensity declined 18 percent;

between 1986 and 1990, however, it increased 13 percent.

Canada and the United States are the most intensive of the G-7 countries in their industrial

energy use, largely as a consequence of their abundant (and relatively cheap) indigenous

energy, mineral, and other natural resource endowments. As a result of this comparative

advantage, Canada and the United States tended historically to develop energy-intensive

industries (such as chemicals and petroleum, primary metals, and paper and printing), which

specialized in manufacture and fabrication of items from raw materials.

INDUSTRY

34
Energy-Intensive Industries

Thousand Btu per Dollar Value Added

Primary Metals

Chemicals & Petroleum

All Manufacturing

Paper & Printing

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

*Data for United Kingdom unavailable

Energy Intensity by Industry

(G-7 Average, 1988*)

Percent

United States*

Canada

Japan

Italy

Germany

France

United Kingdom

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

1970

1980

1990

*U.S. data are for 1974, 1980, and 1991

Energy Intensive Industries Energy Consumption

as a Share of Industrial Energy Consumption

Differences between G-7 countries in energy consumption per unit of output can be

explained partly by differences in the mix of industries in the seven countries. Three major

industries are considered particularly energy-intensive (i.e., consuming a large amount of

energy per unit of output): 1) Primary Metals (i.e., steel, aluminum, copper); 2) Chemicals

and Petroleum; and 3) Paper and Printing.

These three industries alone accounted for a large share of G-7 industrial energy

consumption in 1990, ranging from 40 percent in the United Kingdom to 65 percent in the

United States.

Between 1970 and 1990, the energy consumption share of energy-intensive industries

generally fell in G-7 countries, except for the United States (which remained about constant)

and Canada (which increased). Both of these countries continued to specialize in energyintensive industries based on their relatively plentiful energy resources.

INDUSTRY

35
Transportation Sector Energy Consumption

Percent of National Energy Consumption

United States

United Kingdom

Italy

Canada

France

Germany

Japan

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

1970

1980

1990

Quadrillion Btu

United States

Japan

Germany

Canada

United Kingdom

France

Italy

0 5 10 15 20 25

1970

1980

1990

Energy consumption by G-7 transportation sectors increased from 23 quads in 1970 to 36

quads in 1990, with the largest absolute increases in the United States and Japan.

As a result of this rapid increase, the share of energy consumed by G-7 transportation

sectors rose on average from 21 percent in 1970 to 25 percent in 1990.

The transportation sector’s share of national energy consumption increased between 1970 and

1990 in all G-7 countries except Canada. As of 1990, the United States had the highest

transportation share, mainly as a result of high vehicle ownership per capita and high average

annual distances driven per vehicle.

TRANSPORTATION

37
Transportation Sector Carbon Emissions

Percent of Energy-Related Carbon Emissions

France

United States

Canada

Italy

United Kingdom

Germany

Japan

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

1970

1980

1990

Million Metric Tons

United States

Japan

Germany

United Kingdom

France

Canada

Italy

0 100 200 300 400 500

1970

1980

1990

G-7 transportation sector carbon emissions increased significantly between 1970 and 1990,

both in absolute terms as well as relative to total energy-related carbon emissions. The

Japanese, French, and Italian transportation sectors each more than doubled their carbon

emissions between 1970 and 1990.

Throughout the G-7, transportation sector carbon emissions rose as a result of rapid increases

in per capita vehicle ownership. On average, the G-7 transportation sector share of carbon

emissions increased from 21 percent in 1970 to 30 percent in 1990.

In 1990, the transportation sector accounted for less than 25 percent of Japanese energyrelated carbon emissions, the lowest share in the G-7 group. In comparison, the U.S.,

French, and Canadian transportation sectors each accounted for more than 30 percent of

national energy-related carbon emissions.

TRANSPORTATION

38
Transportation Energy Consumption per Capita

Million Btu per Person

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

0

20

40

60

80

100

United States Canada Germany United Kingdom

France Italy Japan

The United States and Canada between 1970 and 1990 consistently used much more energy

per person in the transportation sectors compared to other G-7 countries.

Overall, between 1970 and 1990, transportation energy consumption per capita increased 15

percent and 22 percent, respectively, in the United States and Canada. In comparison, other

G-7 country ratios rose much faster, ranging from 74 percent growth in Japan to a 90 percent

increase in Italy.

In the United States and Canada, transportation energy consumption per capita peaked in the

late 1970’s, then declined sharply following the 1979 oil price shock caused by the Iranian

Revolution. The ratios in both countries then began to climb again in the mid-1980’s as oil

prices fell.

In Europe and Japan, on the other hand, transportation energy consumption per capita ratios

rose steadily between 1970 and 1990 and were affected less than in the United States by

fluctuations in world oil prices. This is mainly because taxes consistently have accounted

for a much larger share of end-use transportation energy prices in Europe and Japan than in

the United States, thus reducing the relative impact of changes in the world oil price.

TRANSPORTATION

39
Automobile Efficiency and Utilization

Miles per Gallon

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Italy France United Kingdom Germany

Japan Canada United States

Average Gasoline Fuel Economy

Miles Traveled per Vehicle per Year

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

United States United Kingdom France Germany Italy Japan

Vehicle Usage Trends

Overall fleet fuel efficiencies improved in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom,

and Italy following the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979, as relatively energy-efficient new

cars replaced older, less efficient models. In other G-7 countries, improvements in efficiency

were somewhat less noticeable, and tended to level off after the oil price collapse of 1986.

Despite rapid improvement in U.S. and Canadian fleet fuel efficiencies since the 1970’s,

those two countries continued as of 1991 to rank behind most other G-7 countries.

The annual number of miles driven per vehicle rose slightly in most G-7 countries between

1970 and 1991. Vehicle utilization increased in the United States, United Kingdom, and

Italy following the oil price collapse of 1986.

Countries with high gasoline taxes (France and Italy, for example) tended to have high

average fleet efficiencies as well.

TRANSPORTATION

40
Vehicle Registrations per Capita

Vehicles per Person

United States

Canada

Germany

Italy

France

Japan

United Kingdom

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1970

1980

1990

Vehicle registrations per capita increased significantly in all G-7 countries between 1970 and

1990, largely as a result of higher per capita incomes.

The rate of increase in vehicle registrations per capita was greatest outside the United States

and Canada.

Nonetheless, the United States and Canada in 1990 maintained more registered vehicles per

capita than other G-7 countries.

By 1990, vehicle registrations per capita in other G-7 countries generally reached U.S. 1970

registration levels. The growth in vehicle registrations throughout the G-7 had important

implications for higher total vehicle miles driven and increased transportation fuel

consumption.

TRANSPORTATION

41
Gasoline Prices and Taxes, 1992

Dollars per Gallon

Italy

France

United Kingdom

Germany

Japan

Canada

United States

$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5

Non Tax

Tax

Gasoline prices vary widely among G-7 countries. In 1992, for instance, gasoline cost $1.13

per gallon in the United States, compared to $3.89 per gallon in Italy (using purchasing

power parity exchange rates).

Most of the differences in gasoline prices among G-7 countries result from differences in

taxes. In 1992, for instance, taxes accounted for 27 percent of the U.S. gasoline price,

compared to 46 percent in Japan and Canada, and 70 percent or higher in France, Italy,

Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Even in those G-7 countries with high gasoline prices, rapid increases in vehicle registrations

and transportation energy consumption levels occurred during the 1970’s and 1980’s.

TRANSPORTATION

42
Residential/Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Quadrillion Btu

United States

Japan

Germany

Canada

France

United Kingdom

Italy

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1970

1980

1990

Percent of National Energy Consumption

France

United Kingdom

Canada

Germany

United States

Italy

Japan

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

1970

1980

1990

G-7 energy consumption by the residential/commercial sector rose rapidly between 1970 and

1990, from 35 quads to 51 quads. Residential/commercial energy consumption nearly tripled

in Japan, doubled in France, and increased significantly elsewhere.

As a result, the residential/commercial sector’s share of national energy consumption

increased in every G-7 country between 1970 and 1990. For the G-7 as a whole,

residential/commercial’s share of total energy consumption rose from 31 percent in 1970 to

35 percent in 1990.

Japan’s residential/commercial sector as of 1990 accounted for 27 percent of Japanese total

energy consumption, the lowest such share in the G-7. Despite dramatic increases in

residential/commercial energy consumption between 1970 and 1990, this sector remained

relatively small in Japan due primarily to relatively small average Japanese home size, a

relative lack of central heating and cooling, and relatively broad tolerance for cooler

household temperatures in the winter.

RESIDENTIAL/

COMMERCIAL

43
Service Sector Share of GDP

Percent

United States

Japan

Germany

France

Canada

Italy

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

1978

1990*

*1988 Statistics for Canada

The service sector (defined here to include financial, insurance, real estate, business,

community, and personal services) includes those economic activities which produce services

as opposed to goods, and constitutes much of what is often referred to as the "commercial"

sector. The service sector accounts for a significant share of commercial energy

consumption.

Between 1978 and 1990, the service sector grew rapidly as a share of G-7 economies. On

average, the service sector accounted for about 28 percent of G-7 real GDP in 1990,

compared to 23 percent in 1978.

As of 1990, the service sector made up more than 30 percent of the U.S. and Japanese

economies, as well as sizable shares of the German, French, Canadian, and Italian

economies.

Since the service sector tends to consume less energy per dollar of output than the industrial

or transportation sectors, the growth in services has contributed to reductions in overall

energy intensity ratios in the G-7 since the 1970’s.

RESIDENTIAL/

COMMERCIAL

44
Residential/Commercial Sector Carbon Emissions

Percent of Energy-Related Carbon Emissions

United Kingdom

Germany

United States

Canada

Italy

France

Japan

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

1970

1980

1990

Million Metric Tons

United States

Germany

United Kingdom

Japan

Canada

Italy

France

0 100 200 300 400 500

1970

1980

1990

G-7 residential/commercial carbon emissions increased from 601 million metric tons in 1970

to 729 million metric tons in 1990. The United States and Japan, where

residential/commercial sector energy consumption grew rapidly, accounted for nearly all of

this increase.

Residential/commercial carbon emissions as a share of total energy-related carbon emissions

remained relatively stable in most G-7 countries between 1970 and 1990.

In 1990, the residential/commercial sector accounted for 19 percent of Japanese carbon

emissions, compared to 32 percent for the G-7 as a whole. In the same year, the U.S.,

German, and U.K. residential/commercial sectors each accounted for between 34 and 38

percent of national energy-related carbon emissions.

RESIDENTIAL/

COMMERCIAL

45
Residential Space Heating per Dwelling

Thousand Btu per Dwelling per Degree Day*

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

United States Germany France United Kingdom Italy Japan

*Primary energy used for space heating; climate corrected

Space heating accounts for by far the largest portion of household energy use (with water

heating a distant second). Differences between countries in space heating per dwelling are

generally the result of differences in climate; dwelling size, type, and thermal integrity;

heating services demanded; and heating equipment efficiency.7

When corrected for differences in climate, the United States consumes much more energy

to heat its homes than any other G-7 nation. (Note: comparable data for Canada were not

available.) This mainly results from the fact that homes in the United States are larger on

average than in other G-7 countries.

Between 1973 and 1991, U.S. home heating intensity per dwelling fell 34 percent, more than

in any other G-7 country. Improvements in U.S. home heating intensities occurred mainly

in the 1970’s, when large-scale retrofit programs were encouraged for older homes, while

newer homes were built with improved thermal integrity and heating equipment.

Japan, which has the least housing area per capita in the G-7, also uses the least energy to

heat its homes. In addition, Japanese households tend to maintain lower temperatures than

in other G-7 countries. Between 1973 and 1990, Japan’s heating use per dwelling rose 30

percent as average new-home size increased and as the use of central heating and air

conditioning became more widespread.

RESIDENTIAL/

COMMERCIAL

46
Residential Space Heating per Square Foot

Square Feet per Person

United States

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Italy

Japan

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Housing Area per Capita

1973

1990

Btu per Square Foot per Degree Day*

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Germany United Kingdom France United States Italy Japan

*Primary energy used for space heating; climate corrected

Heating Intensities: Floor Space

Between 1973 and the early 1990’s, average floor space per capita increased throughout the

G-7. Over that period, Japan experienced the greatest relative increase (40 percent) in floor

space per person, while the United States had the smallest (20 percent).

Although the United States has relatively large homes, its use of energy for home heating

as of 1991 was actually among the lowest in the G-7 when corrected for differences in living

space. (Note: comparable data for Canada were not available.)

Despite increasing floor space, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, the United States, and

Italy reduced their heating intensities (energy consumed to heat a square foot of household

area) between 1973 and the early 1990’s, with U.S. heating intensity declining the most in

both absolute and relative terms. Despite a slight increase in recent years, Japan’s heating

intensity per square foot remains by far the lowest in the G-7 (less than half the U.S. level).

RESIDENTIAL/

COMMERCIAL

47
Primary Electricity Consumption

Quadrillion Btu

United States

Japan

Canada

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1970

1980

1990

Percent of National Energy Consumption

Canada

France

Japan

United States

Germany

United Kingdom

Italy

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

1970

1980

1990

These two figures present electricity consumption on a primary basis. Primary electricity

is defined to include all energy inputs used in generating electricity. Generally, three units

of energy inputs are required to produce one unit of electricity output, with the other two

units being lost as heat.

G-7 primary electricity consumption increased 82 percent between 1970 and 1990, from 30

quads to 55 quads. Much of this growth was met by rapid addition of nuclear power

capacity during those years, particularly in the United States, France, and Japan. In Canada,

hydroelectric power capacity grew rapidly between 1970 and 1990.

As a consequence, G-7 primary electricity consumption as a share of national energy

consumption increased on average from 27 percent in 1970 to 38 percent in 1990.

Electricity use grew partly as a result of increased penetration of home appliances such as

refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, and dishwashers. Utilization of electricity for air

conditioning and heating (often carried out by electric heat pumps) also increased, especially

in the United States and Japan. Electricity also grew in importance as an energy input in

the industrial sector.

ELECTRICITY

48
Carbon Emissions from Electricity Generation

Million Metric Tons

United States

Japan

United Kingdom

Germany

Italy

Canada

France

0 100 200 300 400 500

1970

1980

1990

G-7 carbon emissions resulting from the generation of electricity increased 220 million

metric tons between 1970 and 1990.

Nearly all of this increase was accounted for by the United States, where electricity sector

carbon emissions grew 75 percent between 1970 and 1990. Large proportional increases also

took place in Italy and Canada.

Carbon emissions from electricity generation declined significantly in France between 1980

and 1990 as a result of rapid growth in nuclear power (and corresponding decline in fossil

fuel-generated electricity).

Increased use of nuclear power and a shift from coal- to natural gas-fired power plants

helped stabilize carbon emissions from electricity generation in Germany, the United

Kingdom, and Japan between 1970 and 1990.

ELECTRICITY

49
Electricity Overview

Thousand Btu per 1985 Dollar

1970 1980 1990

0

5

10

15

20

Energy/GDP

Electricity/GDP

Electricity vs. Energy Consumption

per Dollar of GDP (G-7 Average)

The amount of primary electricity consumed in the G-7 per dollar of output between 1970

and 1990 remained nearly constant, while the overall amount of energy consumed per dollar

of output fell 28 percent.

G-7 primary electricity consumption and real GDP increased 82 and 78 percent, respectively,

between 1970 and 1990. During the same period, total G-7 energy consumption increased

only 29 percent.

ELECTRICITY

50
Primary Electricity Consumption per Dollar of GDP

Thousand Btu per 1985 Dollar

Canada

United States

France

Germany

United Kingdom

Japan

Italy

0 5 10

1970

1980

1990

The amount of primary electricity consumed per unit of output (electricity intensity)

increased in four of the G-7 countries between 1970 and 1990. Germany’s electricity

intensity remained approximately stable, while Japan’s and the United Kingdom’s electricity

intensity fell during the period.

For the G-7 as a whole, primary electricity consumption between 1970 and 1990 increased

at about the same rate as real GDP.

ELECTRICITY

51
Electricity Generation Efficiency, 1991

Percent Efficiency

Canada

Italy

Japan

United States

United Kingdom

France

Germany

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Overall Efficiency Excluding Hydro

Electricity generation efficiency is a relative measure comparing energy inputs to electricity

output. In 1991, Canada had the highest overall electric generation efficiency in the G-7,

although this was mainly the result of its abundant hydroelectric power (which is assumed

to achieve 100 percent generation efficiency).

Excluding hydroelectricity provides a more realistic comparison of electric generation

efficiencies among G-7 countries. Using this measure, G-7 countries generally achieve

between 35 and 40 percent electric generation efficiency.

ELECTRICITY

52
Electricity Generation by Fuel Type

Percent

Italy

Japan

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

Germany

France

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Oil Share

1970

1980

1990

Percent

Japan

Italy

United States

Germany

Canada

United Kingdom

France

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Natural Gas Share

1970

1980

1990

Percent

United Kingdom

United States

Germany

Canada

Italy

Japan

France

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Coal Share

1970

1980

1990

Percent

France

Germany

Japan

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

Italy

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Nuclear Share

1970

1980

1990

Between 1970 and 1990, the share of electricity generated by oil fell throughout the G-7,

with particularly sharp declines in Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the

United States. As of 1990, Italy maintained the highest oil share of electricity generation.

During the same period, natural gas-fired electricity generation increased sharply in Japan

and Italy, and fell sharply in the United States and France.

Coal’s share increased somewhat in the United States and Italy, and fell in most other G-7

countries (especially in France and Germany). The shares of oil, gas, and coal remained

relatively constant in Canada, which relies mainly on hydroelectric power.

Nuclear power increased its share of total electric generation dramatically in all G-7

countries except Italy, which has phased out nuclear power entirely. As of 1990, France

maintained by far the largest nuclear share of electricity generation in the G-7.

ELECTRICITY

53
Conclusion

International comparisons of energy use and carbon emissions patterns reveal considerable

variation in a wide range of indicators. Energy consumption per capita, for instance, is highest

in the developed countries. In recent decades, however, energy consumption has been rising

more slowly than economic growth in the developed countries. Although this trend was

stimulated largely by the oil price shocks of the 1970’s, there were other important factors at

work. Sectoral shifts in demand towards less energy-intensive products and services, more

efficient production processes for using energy and producing electric power, and government

tax and regulation policies designed to foster demand for energy-efficient products all played a

role. These factors also affected OECD carbon emissions, which rose less rapidly than energy

consumption over the past 20 years, mainly as a result of the rapid growth in noncarbon-emitting

fuels, especially nuclear power and hydroelectricity.

Energy consumption rose much more rapidly in the developing countries than in the OECD since

1970. Growth was spurred in part by the process of industrialization, which introduces modern

systems of transportation, distribution, and power generation, all more energy-intensive than preindustrial methods. Growth in population also played an important role. Between 1970 and

1990, developing country population rose 49 percent, compared to a 20 percent rise in developed

countries. Government policies also were a powerful influence on energy use patterns in the

developing countries. Former centrally-planned economies, including China, the former Soviet

Union, and the countries of Eastern Europe, all consistently exhibited unusually high energy

usage rates relative to economic activity. These high usage patterns were spurred largely by

government policies designed to encourage the development of energy-intensive industries. In

addition, most energy prices were subsidized or controlled at below-market levels.

Although containing over 80 percent of the world’s population, the developing nations have

historically consumed significantly less than half of the world’s energy consumption, but that

share rose rapidly during the 1970’s and 1980’s. As a result, the developing countries by 1992

accounted for 48 percent of the world’s energy consumption (up from 39 percent in 1970) and

52 percent of world energy-related carbon emissions (up from 43 percent in 1970).

On a worldwide basis, fuel use and carbon emission increases derive principally from increased

generation of electric power and increased use of motor fuel for transport. In both developed and

developing areas of the world, electricity demand has increased faster than economic growth.

In developed countries, electricity demand doubled between 1970 and 1990. In developing areas,

the increase was 300 percent. Carbon and noncarbon fuels compete in power generation. In

countries with access to hydroelectric and nuclear power, substantial gains in electric output have

been achieved with little impact on carbon emissions. For most countries, however, fossil fuels

continue to represent the main incremental fuel source to meet increased electric power needs.

Demand for transport fuel appears to be powerfully impacted by rising per capita income. Even

in developed countries with traditionally high gasoline price policies, income growth encouraged

rapid growth in new vehicle registrations between 1970 and 1990. In Germany, Italy, Japan, and

the United Kingdom, for instance, vehicle registrations per capita more than doubled during those

years and approached U.S. levels of 1970. Italy exhibited the highest rate of growth in vehicle

registrations between 1970 and 1990, even though it maintained the highest prices for gasoline.

Within the G-7, Europe and Japan have consistently maintained higher gasoline taxes than the

United States and Canada. Though gasoline prices do not appear to significantly deter growth

in vehicle purchases, they do appear to affect choice of fuel-efficient vehicles. Countries with

high gasoline taxes (i.e., Europe and Japan) generally also possess more fuel-efficient car fleets.

55
APPENDIX:

DATA SOURCES and END NOTES

ENERGY AND CARBON EMISSIONS IN A WORLD CONTEXT

GDP, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions: World Trends (Page 8)

Sources: The WEFA Group. World Economic Service: Historical Data (Bala Cynwyd, PA, July

1993); Energy Information Administration (EIA). International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington,

DC, 1994) and internal data from the International Statistics Branch; Carbon emissions derived from

conversion factors in: EIA. Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Carbon Intensity and Non-Fossil Fuels (P. 9)

Sources: EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch; EIA. Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: Annual

Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Fuel Mix in the OECD and Non-OECD (P. 10)

Source: EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch.

GDP, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions: Developed vs. Developing (P. 11)

Sources: The WEFA Group. World Economic Service: Historical Data (Bala Cynwyd, PA, July

1993); EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch; Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA. Annual

Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Energy Consumption: Developed vs. Developing (P. 12)

Source: EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch.

Electricity, Energy, and GDP: Developed vs. Developing (P. 13)

Source: EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch.

Carbon Emissions: Developed vs. Developing (P. 14)

Sources: EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch; EIA. Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: Annual

Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Developed vs. Developing (P. 15)

Source: The WEFA Group. World Economic Service: Historical Data (Bala Cynwyd, PA, July 1993).

Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP: Developed vs. Developing (P. 16)

Sources: The WEFA Group. World Economic Service: Historical Data (Bala Cynwyd, PA, July

1993); EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch.

Developed Countries: Carbon Emissions; Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP (P. 17)

Sources: The WEFA Group. World Economic Service: Historical Data (Bala Cynwyd, PA, July

1993); EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch; Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA. Annual

Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Developing Countries: Carbon Emissions; Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP (P. 18)

Sources: The WEFA Group. World Economic Service: Historical Data (Bala Cynwyd, PA, July

1993); EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

57
International Statistics Branch; Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA. Annual

Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Economic Development and National Energy Use Patterns (P. 19)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. Energy

Statistics and Balances of Non-OECD Countries (Paris, 1992); World Bank. World Tables 1993

(Baltimore, 1993).

Population, Economic Growth, Energy and Carbon (P. 20)

Sources: The WEFA Group. World Economic Service: Historical Data (Bala Cynwyd, PA, July

1993); EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch; Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA. Annual

Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993.

Economic Development and World Fossil Fuel Consumption (P. 21)

Sources: The WEFA Group. World Economic Service: Historical Data (Bala Cynwyd, PA, July

1993); EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch.

Economic Development and World Carbon Emissions (P. 22)

Sources: The WEFA Group. World Economic Service: Historical Data (Bala Cynwyd, PA, July

1993); EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch; Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA. Annual

Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

ENERGY USE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND CARBON EMISSIONS IN THE G-7

World Oil Price (P. 24)

EIA. Annual Energy Review 1992 (Washington, DC, June 1993); EIA. Monthly Energy Review,

December 1993 (Washington, DC, December 1993).

G-7 Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (P. 25)

Source: EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch.

GDP and Energy Consumption per Capita (P. 26)

Sources: OECD. National Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 (Paris, 1993); EIA. International Energy

Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the International Statistics Branch.

Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP (P. 27)

Sources: OECD. National Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 (Paris, 1993); EIA. International Energy

Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the International Statistics Branch.

Energy-Related Carbon Emissions per Dollar of GDP (P. 28)

Sources: OECD. National Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 (Paris, 1993); EIA. International Energy

Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the International Statistics Branch;

Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA. Annual Energy Outlook 1993

(Washington, DC, 1993).

Energy-Related Carbon Emissions per Capita (P. 29)

Sources: OECD. National Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 (Paris, 1993); EIA. International Energy

Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the International Statistics Branch;

Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA. Annual Energy Outlook 1993

(Washington, DC, 1993).

58
Energy-Related Carbon Emissions (P. 30)

Sources: EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch; Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA. Annual

Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

G-7 SECTORAL ANALYSIS

INDUSTRY

Industrial Sector Energy Consumption (P. 32)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. National

Accounts, Volume 2: 1978-1990 (Paris, 1992).

Industrial Sector Carbon Emissions (P. 33)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. National

Accounts, Volume 2: 1978-1990 (Paris, 1992); Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in:

EIA. Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Industrial Energy Intensity (P. 34)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. National

Accounts, Volume 2: 1978-1990 (Paris, 1992).

Energy-Intensive Industries (P. 35)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. National

Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 (Paris, 1992); OECD. National Accounts, Volume 2: 1978-1990

(Paris, 1992); EIA. Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey: Consumption of Energy, 1988

(Washington, DC, May 1991); EIA. Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey: Consumption of

Energy, 1991 (Preliminary) Mohr, Michael F., "Gross National Product by Industry, 1987-1989."

Survey of Current Business, April 1991 (Washington, DC, April 1991); U.S. Department of

Commerce. Annual Survey of Manufactures, 1975 (Washington, DC, September 1977).

TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Sector Energy Consumption (P. 36)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. National

Accounts, Volume 2: 1978-1990 (Paris, 1992).

Transportation Sector Carbon Emissions (P. 37)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); EIA. Annual Energy

Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993); Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA.

Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Transportation Energy Consumption per Capita (P. 38)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. National

Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 (Paris, 1993).

Automobile Efficiency and Utilization (P. 39)

Source: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory.

Vehicle Registrations per Capita (P. 40)

Sources: American Automobile Manufacturer’s Association. World Motor Vehicle Data, 1993 Edition

(Detroit, 1993); OECD. National Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 (Paris, 1993).

Gasoline Prices and Taxes, 1992 (P. 41)

Source: International Energy Agency. Energy Prices and Taxes, First Quarter 1993 (Paris, 1993).

59
RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL

Residential/Commercial Sector Energy Consumption (P. 42)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. National

Accounts, Volume 2: 1978-1990 (Paris, 1992).

Service Sector Share of GDP (P. 43)

Source: OECD. National Accounts, Volume 2: 1978-1990 (Paris, 1992).

Residential/Commercial Sector Carbon Emissions (P. 44)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); EIA. Annual Energy

Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993); Carbon emissions derived from conversion factors in: EIA.

Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Residential Space Heating per Dwelling (P. 45)

Source: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory.

Residential Space Heating per Square Foot (P. 46)

Source: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory.

ELECTRICITY

Primary Electricity Consumption (P. 47)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993).

Carbon Emissions from Electricity Generation (P. 48)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); Carbon emissions

derived from conversion factors in: EIA. Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (Washington, DC, 1993).

Electricity Overview (P. 49)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. National

Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 (Paris, 1993).

Primary Electricity Consumption per Dollar of GDP (P. 50)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993); OECD. National

Accounts, Volume 1: 1960-1991 (Paris, 1993).

Electricity Generation Efficiency, 1991 (P. 51)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993).

Electricity Generation by Fuel Type (P. 52)

Sources: OECD. Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 1990-1991 (Paris, 1993).

MAPS

Energy Consumption per Dollar of GNP, 1990 (Cover)

Sources: EIA. International Energy Annual 1992 (Washington, DC, 1994) and internal data from the

International Statistics Branch; World Bank. Socio-economic Time-series Access and Retrieval System,

Version 2 (Washington, DC, April 1992).

Energy-Related Carbon Emissions per Dollar of GNP, 1990

Sources: Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Estimates

of CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning and Cement Manufacturing, Based on the United Nations

Energy Statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Mines Cement Manufacturing Data (Oak Ridge, TN, 1992);

World Bank. Socio-economic Time-series Access and Retrieval System, Version 2 (Washington, DC,

April 1992).

60
Energy-Related Carbon Emissions, 1990

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Estimates

of CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning and Cement Manufacturing, Based on the United Nations

Energy Statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Mines Cement Manufacturing Data (Oak Ridge, TN, 1992).

Energy-Related Carbon Emissions per Capita, 1990

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Estimates

of CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning and Cement Manufacturing, Based on the United Nations

Energy Statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Mines Cement Manufacturing Data (Oak Ridge, TN, 1992);

World Bank. Socio-economic Time-series Access and Retrieval System, Version 2 (Washington, DC,

April 1992).

ENDNOTES

1. See EIA’s report, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States, 1985-1990 (Washington,

DC, September 1993).

2. Throughout this report, the OECD is used as a proxy for the "developed countries." Members

of the OECD in 1993 included: Australia; Austria; Belgium; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France;

Germany; Greece; Guam; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Japan; Luxembourg; Netherlands; New Zealand;

Norway; Portugal; Puerto Rico; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Turkey; U.S. Virgin Islands; United

Kingdom; United States. All other countries of the world are defined as "non-OECD." These

include the current and former centrally-planned economies (CPE’s) and other developing

countries. The term "non-OECD" is equivalent to "developing," except where otherwise noted.

3. Complete annual data for the time periods in question are not always available for all countries.

An effort is made, however, to include the latest available data for each graph.

4. Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is used whenever available throughout this report. According

to the OECD National Accounts, Vol. 1: 1960-1991, GDP is defined as equal to "the total of the

gross expenditure on the final uses of the domestic supply of goods and services...less imports

of goods and services." Gross National Product, or GNP, is substituted for GDP in this report

when GDP statistics are not available. GNP is the same as GDP, except that it does not exclude

imports of goods and services.

5. Purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates are used whenever available throughout this report.

According to the OECD National Accounts, Vol. 1: 1960-1991, PPP is defined as the rate of

currency conversion that will buy the same basket of goods and services in different countries.

This is considered by many economists to represent a more realistic basis than standard exchange

rates for international economic comparisons.

6. Energy consumption in the industrial, transportation, and residential/commercial sectors includes

all inputs used to generate electricity consumed in each sector.

7. See L. Schipper, S. Meyers, R. Howarth and R. Steiner, Energy Efficiency and Human Activity:

Past Trends, Future Prospects (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 1992).

61