Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions, April2009 

ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook	 April-September 2009 

•	 Generally, food security in Zimbabwe continued to

improve throughout March and April (Figure 1), on

account of the arrival of the 2008/09 harvest,

complementing the last food aid distributions and

readily available private sector food imports in local

markets.

•	 However, access to food by chronically food insecure

populations throughout the country, (about 10

percent of the national population), continues to be

a serious challenge in cases where no social safety

nets or properly formulated food aid assistance

exists.

•	 Households and individuals that are dependent on

the market for their food and who have unreliable

income sources continue to face serious difficulties

accessing adequate food, due to their limited

purchasing power. Such households are

predominantly found in urban centers and on mines

and farms where little or no production is currently taking place.

•	 The 2008/09 harvest, much improved compared to last year, is likely to improve food access for rural and urban

households in the early part of the 2009/10 consumption year. However, assessments estimate that most rural

households will face cereal harvest deficits of between four and six months during the consumption year. Other

income sources – including market gardening, casual labor, and livestock sales – are likely to reduce cereal access

difficulties for most households to less than four months in most rural districts. Urban farming households, the

majority of which are poor, are expected to have cereal access from their own harvests for about four months.

See www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale for more information on the FEWS 

NET food insecurity severity scale. 

Source: FEWS NET 

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

Source: FEWS NET 

FEWS NET Zimbabwe 

Tel: +263 474 4894 

zimbabwe@fews.net 

FEWS NET Washington

1717 H St NW 

Washington DC 20006 

info@fews.net 

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this 

publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency 

for International Development or the United States Government. 

www.fews.net/zimbabwe 
        

             

               

         

             

               

         

         

             

             

           

               

               

                 

               

               

                 

               

               

                                

                                        

               

                                       

                                   

                                       

                                 

                                          

                                  

                       

                           

                                 

                                 

                                           

                                     

                                 

                                       

 

 

 

 

ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook April-September 2009 

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

Current food security conditions

Generally, food security continued to improve in

Zimbabwe throughout March, due to the arrival of

the 2008/09 harvest, complementing remaining

food aid distributions and private sector food

imports on the market. As the 2008/09

consumption year ended in March, government

and humanitarian imports were estimated at

490,000 MT and 330,000 MT, respectively. Given

that maize meal imports from South Africa,

Botswana, and Zambia, and rice from Mozambique

were readily available on the market from January,

the remaining cereal gap (about 160,000 MT) is

likely to have been met by private sector cereal

imports that peaked in January and February 2009

(Table 1). Increased food supplies on the market

continue to exert pressure on suppliers to cut their

marketing margins in order to compete for the

stagnant and, in some cases, falling demand for

staple foodstuffs. This development continues to benefit most households that are dependent on the market for their food

supplies. (about 20‐30 percent of the population from March through to August in most years and about 60 percent during

the peak hunger period of November to January).

However, access to food by highly vulnerable households continues to be a serious challenge in cases where no social safety

nets and/or food aid assistance exists. These populations make up the majority of the chronically food insecure in

Zimbabwe (about 10 percent of the total population as estimated in past ZimVACs). They are very poor individuals or

households with members who are not economically active because they are physically or mentally disabled, chronically ill,

aged, or too young. In cases where no proper food assistance programmes are in place for a variety of reasons, including

lack of NGO presence, these people depend on handouts. Child labor is also common among child‐headed households.

These populations are generally concentrated in communal areas were the elderly retire.

Table 1. National cereal balance sheet as at 13 March 2009 

CFSAM 

Projection (MT) 

As of 13 March 

2009 (MT) 

National 

requirements* 1,773,000 1,773,000 

Opening stock 19,000 32,000 

Production 759,000 759,000 

Government imports 600,000 493,000 

Food aid imports 380,000 329,000 

Informal cross 

border imports 23,000 unknown 

Cereal surplus/deficit 8,000 (160,000) 

* Based on CSO 2008 projected population of 11.865 million. 

Includes human, livestock, and industrial consumption. 

Source: GoZ, WFP, C-SAFE 

Figure 2. Maize grain prices trends at Mbare Musika, Figure 3. Maize flour price Tends at Mbare Musika, Harare 

Harare 

0.00

0.50

1.00

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DECJAN

FEB

MAR

US$/kg

2003/04‐2007/08 2004/05 2008/09

0.00

0.50

1.00

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DECJAN

FEB

MAR

US$/kg

2003/04‐2007/08 2004/05 2008/09

Source, Figures 2-3: FEWS NET 

Zimbabwe’s depressed economy continues to limit employment opportunities, and the majority of those still employed

earn relatively low wages, limiting their purchasing power for food and other basic commodities and services. The

Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ), currently one of the biggest employers, is facing serious challenges paying its employees

due to its lack of revenue, limited access to credit, and years of cumulative economic decline. It has resorted to giving

USD100/month to all its employees regardless of grade since February as a stop‐gap measure. In the meantime, the

Consumer Council of Zimbabwe estimated the minimum food basket for low income urban households at USD124.25 in

February and USD120.62 in March, and the Central Statistical Office’s food poverty line for a household of five people for
           

         

               

            

               

           

         

         

           

                 

                 

               

             

             

       

           

             

             

             

           

       

               

             

           

         

           

             

           

            

              

           

               

             

               

               

             

             

               

           

       

           

                                

                                       

                                      

             

                                       

                               

                                      

                               

                 

ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook April-September 2009 

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

Figure 4. Most Likely food security scenario, April-June 2009 

Source: FEWS NET 

Figure 5. Most Likely food security scenario, July-September 2009 

February and March was USD157.93 and

USD143.13, respectively. All these standards

show the government allowance alone to be too

low to adequately support employee households.

Such low salaries are not uncommon with the

private sector, either, and households often

supplement these incomes with additional

income from informal economic activities,

though these opportunities are limited.

While prices of staple and other basic food items

have fallen by between 40 and 50 percent since

December 2008, due in part to favorable climate

conditions, they remain between three and six

times higher than the five‐year average for

March (Figures 2,and 3).

The Ministry of Agriculture’s harvest estimates,

and preliminary FAO estimates for food and non‐

food crops, indicate a significant overall increase

from last years’ historical low harvest. The

ZimVac interim assessment results also indicate

significant improvements in household cereal

harvests this year compared to last year.

Given serious maize seed access challenges last

planting season, a considerable proportion of

smallholder farmers resorted to planting

commercial seed acquired the previous season

and/or grain meant for consumption (from the

previous harvest and/or from food aid

programmes). SADC and several NGOs provided

some farmers with seeds and fertilizer inputs.

Some farmers also accessed remittances from

the diaspora ‐ in part in the form of maize seed

and fertilizers. These efforts resulted in area

planted to maize dropping by a modest 14

percent compared to last year. Despite the

challenges farmers faced in accessing seeds and

fertilizers, and the reduced area planted, the

good quality 2008/09 rainfall season made up for

a significant proportion of the potential

reduction in yields.

Smallholder farmers also relied on traditional

informal seeds sources for other food crops (sorghum, millet, groundnuts, sweet potatoes, soy beans, and sunflower).

Good rains in most of the country resulted in normal crop growth, but the fertilizer shortages that persisted throughout the

growing season reduced yields to below normal. With better seed and fertilizers access the 2008/09 could very well have

matched the good harvests of the 1990s.

Since over 80 percent of rural households and 60 percent of urban households get a significant proportion of their annual

food requirements from their own crop production, improved harvests are likely to lead to improved post‐harvest food

access for the majority of these households compared to same time last year. However, all assessments indicate that many

households will face cereal deficits, especially between October 2009 and January 2010, as sizeable national level

production deficits are forecast for maize, sorghum, and millet.

Source: FEWS NET 
                                     

                                     

                               

                                       

           

                                           

                                            

                                   

                           

                                              

                              

                                       

                                     

                                   

                         

                                   

                                            

       

                                       

                                  

                                         

                                            

                                       

                                      

                                        

                                     

                                         

                                     

                                    

                                    

                               

                 

                             

                                 

                                       

                                      

                                      

                               

                                

ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook April-September 2009 

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

Generally livestock conditions are fair to good across the country; grazing is good and drinking water for animals is

adequate in most areas. Dipping remains erratic, resulting in high incidences of tick borne diseases. Given heavy

destocking in most communal areas that faced food security problems last consumption year when vulnerable households

were exchanging their livestock for maize grain, most households now prefer cash sales to cater to their other incidentals.

Most‐likely food security scenario, April‐ September 2009

Own crop production is the major source of food for over 80 percent of rural households and about 60 percent of urban

households in the first four to six months of most consumption years. As the 2008/09 harvest is likely to be close to but

below normal, it is anticipated that these households should have relatively sufficient access to their own production for

the first four to six months (between July and September) of this consumption year.

The majority of rural households’ food crop harvests are likely to last for more than six months, except in the districts of Mt.

Darwin, Rushinga, Hwedza, Mudzi, Mutoko, Seke, and Uzumba Maramba Pfungwe. In these districts, households’ harvests

were reduced by a prolonged dry spell in February. As such, households in these areas are likely to meet consumption

requirements from their own production for about three to four months (between June and July), after which they will

require food assistance. In addition, most of these households have limited access to other income sources, including

market gardening, casual labor, livestock sales, etc.,,to access food on the market.

Uzumba Maramba Pfungwe and Rushinga districts are expected to have the least household food production levels – barely

enough to cover two months. As such, these two districts are likely to be moderately food insecure before the end of the

April‐June outlook period.

Due to slightly better production prospects, food access is expected to be generally adequate in the first three months for

most households in Mt. Darwin, Hwedza, Mudzi, Mutoko, and Seke districts. During April‐June, even those households that

are normally unable to produce their own food in these districts are likely to have access to adequate food through local

safety nets, as well as through offering their labor in exchange for food. However, as food availability falls in the next six

months, not only are households that currently have adequate food access to their own harvests likely to face food access

difficulties, but those poorer households who were dependent on them are also at increased risk of food access difficulties.

As a result, food security is expected to deteriorate to moderate levels in Mt. Darwin, Hwedza, Mudzi, Mutoko, and Seke

districts and to high levels in Rushinga, and Uzumba Maramba Pfungwe districts during the outlook period (Figures 4, 5).

Urban agriculture is expected to make a significant contribution to household food access in the April to June period in all

major urban centers, save for Kariba, Beitbridge, and Victoria Falls, where urban crop production is generally limited to very

small plots reserved for kitchen gardens. In these towns, households’ purchasing power and market availability of food are

the major determinants of household food access. General food security is expected for most households in these urban

centers, as the income opportunities from cross‐border activities are expected to persist and be complemented by fishing‐

and tourism‐related incomes, particularly in Kariba and Victoria Falls.

In urban centers with significant urban agriculture, including Harare, Marondera, Bindura, and Murehwa, general food

security is expected from April to June, though this will likely deteriorate to moderate food insecurity during July‐

September, when most urban households that produced their own food will have run out and will revert back to the

market, causing staple food prices to increase. However, these price increases are likely to be moderated by maize meal

imports from South Africa and Botswana, which are expected to continue without restriction. It is highly unlikely that the

economic situation will improve to a point of strengthening average household purchasing power during the outlook

period. As such, most urban households are expected to be moderately food insecure from July to September.
 

 

ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook April-September 2009 

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

Table 2. Events which could affect the food security outlook 

Geographic 

Focus Area 

Events that would 

change the most 

likely scenario 

Impacts on food security 

conditions 

Likelihood of 

occurrence* 

Key variables 

to monitor 

Urban centers Restriction on imports 

of cheaper maize meal 

from south Africa, 

Botswana, and Zambia 

Reduced supplies of maize meal on 

markets leads to increases prices 

and reduced purchasing power for 

market-dependent households 

Unlikely Import 

regulations for 

maize meal and 

other basic 

foodstuffs; 

maize meal and 

grain prices 

Rural areas with Increased costs for Dollarization of the economy and Likely Transport fares, 

about six months non-food household limited stocks of hard currency has milling cost, 

of their own goods and services increased barter trade. Most rural education and 

production (education, healthcare, 

milling costs, transport, 

etc.) 

households have only their crops to 

pay for other household goods and 

services. Increases in these costs 

could therefore result in early 

depletion of household food stocks. 

health fees 

All areas, in Resurgence of cholera Increased incidence of this disease Likely Cholera case 

particular urban from persistent poor will affect food utilization, resulting surveillance 

areas water and sanitation 

conditions 

in poor nutritional status and 

sometimes death in short periods of 

time. 

Communal areas, 

particularly 

Matabeleland 

Veldt fires destroy 

available grazing due to 

lack of fire guards and 

irresponsible behavior 

Reduced income contributions from 

livestock sales, loss of livestock 

assets due to animal death from 

poor grazing conditions. 

Reduced income contributions from 

livestock sales. 

Likely 

Likely

Grazing 

conditions 

surveillance 

 Livestock 

diseases 

surveillance 

Livestock disease 

Smallholder Destruction of Reduced households food Unlikely Monitor wild 

farmers’ homestead crops by availability animal crop and 

settlements wild animals food 

neighboring destruction 

national parks 

Central and Reduction in cotton lint Over 70 percent of smallholder Likely Cotton prices 

northwestern prices in line with farming households in these districts 

districts global cotton prices 

and limited local 

finances 

depend on cotton as a cash crop. 

Reductions in cotton lint prices will 

reduce household revenues. 

* Probability levels Description 

Likely Likely to occur in the time period under current conditions 

Unlikely Could occur in the time period if conditions changed moderately 

Very unlikely Could occur in the time period if conditions changed significantly 
                   

                 

         

                 

             

                   

               

Famine Early Warning Systems Network i 

ANNEX: Zimbabwe Monthly Price Bulletin April 2009 

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government

agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other

network and private sector partners.

Maize grain, maize flour, and cooking oil represent the most

important food commodities consumed by poor households.

The Mbare market in Harare is where a very large

percentage of the most vulnerable households procure their

basic commodities.