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ZIMBABWE Food Security Update December 2007

Summary

Supplies of staple cereals to most formal markets

remain erratic and inadequate throughout the

country.

Efforts by the Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ), and

humanitarian agencies  ‐  mainly World Food

Programme (WFP) and C‐SAFE  ‐  to import cereals

have reduced the country’s initial maize deficit for

the remainder of the marketing year (through March

2008) to about 360,000 MT.    Projected import

targets between now and March, if met, would close

this gap completely.    However, internal cereal

distribution systems are still severely constrained by

fuel shortages, inappropriate pricing and grain trade

policies, and by heavy rains.   

In October and November, supplies of basic foods

and other commodities on the formal market were

so weak that the Central Statistics Office (CSO) was

unable to calculate inflation rates for November.  

More recently, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has calculated annual inflation at 24,000 percent for

November 2007.  Independent economists put the annual rate of inflation for November at close to double the

RBZ’s estimate.  Incomes have failed to keep pace with the increases in prices.

Basic foods, such as sugar, milk, maize meal and cooking oil and some non‐food commodities like soap continue

to be found on the parallel market where they are trading at higher prices.  However, cash shortages that began

in November persisted in December, further weakening the ability of market‐dependent households to purchase

adequate food and other basic goods.

Food assistance programs implemented by WFP and the Consortium for Southern Africa Food Security

Emergency (C‐SAFE) are helping to maintain food insecurity at moderate levels in rural areas (see Figure 1),

targeting over 3 million people (out of the estimated rural population of 8.2 million) with complete food rations

in November 2007.    In January, WFP and C‐SAFE plan to expand their programs to cover 4 million rural

beneficiaries.

National elections are expected to be held in March 2008 and have the potential of disrupting food aid

distributions.  In the past similar disruptions were dealt with swiftly, and their impact on beneficiaries’ access to

food was highly minimized.    The issue has been covered in the food aid coordination meetings and several

strategies were considered, including documentation and quick reporting of political interference with food aid

to coordinating agencies (WFP and C‐Safe), advance distribution of food aid to beneficiaries before March 2008,

transparent registration and food aid distribution.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the food security situation in the urban areas continues to deteriorate and

that current food assistance programs are insufficient.    The planned expansion of these programs in January

2008 will bring the total rate of coverage to only about 35 percent of the one million urban Zimbabweans

assessed to be food insecure and in need of food assistance, according to the June 2007 Crop and Food Supply

Assessment Mission (CFSAM).

Figure 1. Estimated current food security conditions 

through March 2008

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Zimbabwe FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this 1717 H St NW Tel: +263 474 4894 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency 

ws.net Washington DC 20006 zimbabwe@fe for International Development or the United States Government. info@fews.net 

www.fews.net/country 
ZIMBABWE Food Security Update December 2007

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

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WFP conducted a Community Household Survey in October and November, covering areas where WFP food

distributions are taking place.  In October, the government’s Food and Nutrition Council and UNICEF conducted a

Food Security and Nutrition Assessment in all areas of the country.   The latter should identify any nutritional

trends between now and the last assessment in June 2007.

The rainy season began early in most parts of the country and had progressed well up to mid December 2007.  

Rainfall forecasts for the rest of the first half of the season remain positive.    The Ministry of Agriculture

estimates that the area planted by mid December 2007 is greater than the area planted at this time last year.

While seeds have generally been available, fertilizers have been in short supply.  Excess rainfall in many parts of

the country could exacerbate the negative impact of fertilizer shortages on overall crop yields in areas prone to

soil nutrient leaching and water logging.

At least 21 people have been killed in floods across the country.  Heavy rains have also damaged or destroyed

crops fields, homes and assets, including livestock.  The livelihoods of over 600 families were disrupted by floods

in one ward in Muzarabani district around mid‐December.    Food, shelter and other assistance has been

dispatched to the affected areas by the GoZ and humanitarian agencies.  Given the forecast for heavy rains over

Zimbabwe in the rest of December, more flooding is expected in low‐lying areas.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

Source: FEWS NET

Inefficient internal grain distribution causes erratic and

inadequate supply of staple cereals on the formal market

Based on the national cereal balance sheet informed by the CFSAM

national cereals production estimates for 2007 and the CSO

population projections for 2007, combined cereal imports as at 30

November 2007 by the GoZ and the humanitarian agencies suggest

that aggregate cereal availability for Zimbabwe should be adequate

up to mid‐January 2008, assuming, conservatively, zero household

stocks at the start of the current consumption year.    Actual cereal

imports by the end of November 2007 had reduced the deficit to

about two and half months of national requirements (365,000 MT)

(Figure 2), while planned cereal imports by both the GoZ and

humanitarian agencies could close the initial national cereal deficit for

the 2007/08 consumption year.   

While aggregate cereal supplies have been stable, several GoZ policies

have induced gross inefficiencies in the internal distribution of

imported and domestic cereals resulting in shortages of the

commodities in many parts of the country since the 2007 harvest.   

Figure 2. National maize balance sheet as at 30 

November 2007 

Sources: Ministry of Agriculture, WFP,C-SAFE and FEWSNET
ZIMBABWE Food Security Update December 2007

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

   

The continuing economic decline, epitomized by high levels of unemployment, high and escalating rates of inflation and

generally low household incomes has reduced household purchasing power and made it extremely difficult for poorer

households to access adequate food.

Food assistance programs in the rural areas are helping to keep food insecurity from deteriorating past moderate levels.  In

November, WFP and C‐SAFE provided over 3 million rural beneficiaries (over one‐third of the estimated rural population)

with monthly cereal rations.  In January, the number of WFP and C‐SAFE food aid beneficiaries in rural areas is planned to

increase to 4 million people.  This number represents about 50 percent of the total rural population.  Anecdotal evidence

suggests that food insecurity in urban areas continues to intensify and that current food assistance programs are

insufficient.  Planned expansion of these programs in January 2008 will cover only about 35 percent of the urban population

projected to be food in need of food assistance by the June 2007 Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission.(CFSAM).

Urban household food security continues to worsen

Urban agriculture contributes significantly to cereal needs

for urban households, particularly in towns and cities

located in areas of high agricultural potential areas.    It is

unlikely that urban households would have any stock

remaining from their harvests after September.  Since then,

the vast majority of the urban population has been

dependent on the market for maize and maize meal, and

their food access has been constrained by inflation, low

incomes, rising unemployment, price controls and the

resultant shortages of food and other basic commodities

and exorbitant parallel market food prices, and since

November 2007 by cash shortages in the Zimbabwean

economy.  The CSO could not compute inflation figures for

October and November because data collection was not

possible due to non availability of good proportion the

basket of goods they monitor on the market.    Figure 3

shows parallel market price trends of selected basic food

stuff which FEWSNET has been monitoring.    Prices on

parallel markets have increased between 100 and 800 percent from October to December 2007.  

Figure 3. Trends in parallel market prices of selected food 

commodities in Harare 

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Maize meal (20 kg)

White Sugar (2 kg)

Cooking Oil (2L)

Beef (8 kg )

ZW$

Oct07 Nov07 Dec07

Source: FEWSNET

While the prevailing food insecurity problems have forced poor urban households to reduce consumption of meats and

other food stuffs considered to be luxury items, the consumption of staple cereals has been conserved to a large extent but

only at the expense to other non‐food household needs.  The most common coping strategies have been in the realm of

expenditure reduction and income argumentation.    Areas that have suffered most from expenditure reduction include

accommodation, health, education and transportation expenses.    The majority of people still fortunate to be gainfully

employed commute to and from work on foot or bicycles to cut down on transport costs.   More and more people are

deferring seeking medical attention from formal health centers and an increasing number is turning to cheaper traditional

and spiritual healers.  An increasing number of the urban poor are relocating to cheaper informal peri‐urban settlements.  

The saved money is directed towards food thereby enabling households to meet their minimum consumption needs.  

Furthermore, local markets in the poor sections of the urban areas have positioned themselves to cater for customers with

low and erratic incomes by parceling their food items into very small quantities, tsaona, that are more accessible.  Several

micro‐levels programs, including church‐based food and other assistance programmes for orphans, the aged and the

chronically ill are available in some urban areas.    C‐SAFE runs its Market Assistance Programme by which they sell

subsidized sorghum meal in selected urban areas.  The product is supposed to be self‐targeting.  The WFP urban food aid

program expects to target 350,000 people at its peak from January to March 2008.

In addition to food shortages, low employment, and high inflation, urban households also must contend with declining level

of services like piped water, sewage, electricity, public transportation, and waste collection.  While public sector financing
ZIMBABWE Food Security Update December 2007

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

has declined, over‐crowding in peri‐urban areas puts increasing pressure on a deteriorating infrastructure.  Sewage bursts

are common in suburbs where the housing density has increased significantly.   In December, 459 cases of cholera were

reported in two high‐density suburbs of Harare, attributed by city health officials to the decline in garbage collection, sewer

blockages and erratic water supplies.  The situation is similar in other urban areas across Zimbabwe.  The decline in public

services and infrastructure has a direct impact on household food security, impacting public health, food utilization and

incomes.    Continued power cuts have also affected urban household expenditure, with part of a household’s meager

income now diverted to buying fuel wood for household consumption.

Food aid stabilizing household level food security in most rural districts

Food aid assistance through WFP and C‐SAFE is covering most rural

districts of the country.  Only thirteen out of the 57 rural districts in

the country were not included in the food aid programs because

they were estimated to have percapita cereal surpluses from the

2007 harvest.  These districts are confined the north‐ central parts

of the country, the traditionally grain‐surplus region. More than 3

million people received food aid in November 2007, over one‐third

of the rural population.    This number is scheduled to increase to

about four million in January 2008.  Assuming targeting of food aid

beneficiaries was efficient, better off households in the districts

receiving food aid were excluded from food aid and will therefore

be dependent on the market for their cereal needs.  Since incomes

tend to lag behind the rate of inflation, this section of the

population is facing increasingly difficult access to cereals because

of rapid cereal price increases in these areas (Figure 4).  The price of

maize grain has maintained an upward trend in response to not

only the inflation in the economy but also the general scarcity of the

commodity in the area.    From October to December 2007, maize

grain prices in the selected grain deficit districts (Hwange, Gwanda

and Masvingo) increased by over 600 percent, increasing the

pressure on households depending on purchases.  The Community

Household Survey conducted by WFP in October and November in

the areas where they were providing food aid is expected to shed

light on how well the non‐food aid beneficiaries were coping with

food shortages as well as rapid increases in food prices.   

Because the allocation of food aid was based on aggregate district

level production statistics, without regard to disparities within the

districts, there is growing concern for poor households in the

thirteen districts deemed to be cereal surplus in the 2007/08

consumption year, who did not produce enough to last them up to

the next harvest.  These households are dependent on local farmer

to farmer markets as well as the good will of better‐off households

that had surplus production.  Better availability of cereals in these

districts has suppressed cereal prices increases.    From October to

December 2007, maize price in some selected grain surplus areas

(Figure 4), which include Hwedza, Murehwa and Marondera, prices increased by 275 percent, less than half of the maize

price increases in typically grain deficit areas over the same period.  Further, poor households normally provide casual labor

to better‐off households during the cropping season in exchange for food and thus their incomes tend to be inflation

neutral.  The onset of the rains has increased agricultural casual labor opportunities for the poor able‐bodied people.  This

leaves the aged and the chronically ill amongst those that are likely to be food insecure.  The food security and nutrition

assessment conducted by the Food and Nutrition Council and UNICEF in November 2007 is expected to provide a better

understanding of the food security situation of this at risk population in all the rural population in the country.   

Figure 4. Parallel market maize grain prices (OctDec 07) in deficit districts receiving food aid 

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Oct07 Nov07 Dec07

Z$/kg

Hw ange

Gw anda

Masvingo

Source: FEWS NET

Figure 5. Maize grain prices (Oct-Dec07) in 

surplus districts not receiving food aid 

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50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Oct07 Nov07 Dec07

Z$/kg

Hw edza

Marondera

Murehw a

Source: FEWS NET
ZIMBABWE Food Security Update December 2007

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

   

The onset of the rains has brought substitutes to the rural household food basket, with wild vegetables and mushrooms

now available, supplementing the relish.  Wild fruits have also contributed to household income for those who are engaged

in selling of fruits like mazhanje and mangoes.    This time of the season on‐farm casual labour opportunities are on the

increase, with weeding and planting to some extent as the common activities which are helping poor households

supplement income and food whenever they are paid in kind.

Excessive and incessant rainfall disrupts cropping and causes floods in many parts of the country

Effective rains were received in November in most parts of the

country, marking an early start to the season for the greater

part of the country (Figure 6).  Farmers responded well.  By 14

December Government estimated that about 1.3 million

hectares of land had been prepared for cropping, 719,000 ha

of which had been planted to maize compared to about

361,000 ha at the same time last year.  However, the excessive

and incessant rains that were experienced in December 2007

(Figure 7) slowed down the progress in land preparation and

planting in most parts of the country.    Established crops in

low‐lying fields with heavy clay soils were waterlogged.  

Leaching of soil nutrients become very pronounced in many

fields, particularly in areas with lighter sandy soils.    Those

farmers who were fortunate to have accessed fertilizers could

not apply it due to the heavy rains that continued to fall.  

While the heavy rains made weeding very difficult, it

encouraged heavy weed infestation in many fields.

A comprehensive assessment of the impact of the excessive

rainfall on crop production and it implications to food security

are to be carried out in early February 2008.  The Department

of Agricultural Extension (Agritex) and its National Early

Warning Unit (NEWU), and a team that includes the Grain

Marketing Board, Met Services Department, Ministry of

Agriculture, Central Statistical Office, farmer unions, FAO and

FEWS NET, plan to carry out the first round crop assessment

from the end of January to early February 2008.    FAO, in

collaboration with its NGO partners, plans a post‐planting

assessment in February 2008.  Both assessments will focus on

rural areas and are likely to provide more information on the

impact of the heavy rains on this season’s crop production.

Most rivers in the country are flooding, and some low laying

areas have already been flooded.  To date at least 21 people

have been killed by floods across the country.    Heavy rains

have also damaged or destroyed crops fields, homes and

assets, including livestock.  The livelihoods of over 600 families

were disrupted by floods in one ward in Muzarabani district around mid‐December.  Wet conditions are forecast to persist

north of the main watershed with less rainfall activity over the southern districts of the country.  Waterlogging and flooding

are therefore expected to continue in the north of the country.

Figure 6. Estimated start of the season for 2007/08

Figure 7. Rainfall for 1 to 31 December 2007 

expressed as a percentage of average 

Source: USGS