In cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency 

Flood of July 27–31, 2006, on the Grand River near 

Painesville, Ohio 

 

Open-File Report 2007–1164 

U.S. Department of the Interior 

U.S. Geological Survey 
Photograph by Timothy Snell, Lake County General Health District (reproduced with permission) 

Photograph by Barbara Petersen, Eckart America Corporation (reproduced with permission) 

Above: Photographs of the July 27–31, 2006, flood on the Grand River near Painesville, Ohio. Top, Photograph showing flooding from the 

Grand River at Jack Britt Memorial Field, Painesville, Ohio. Bottom, Photograph showing the Grand River on July 28, 2006, viewed from the 

U.S. Route 20 bridge in Painesville, Ohio. Building shown behind trees in right of picture is the same office pictured on cover. 

Cover: (Left) Floodwaters from the Grand River on July 28, 2006, rushing through the parking area below the Eckart Building in Painesville, 

approximately 6 miles upstream from the river mouth (photo by Barbara Petersen, Eckart America Corporation, reproduced with permission). 

(Right) A photo taken from about the same vantage point after the flood, on October 11, 2006 (photo by Andrew Ebner, U.S. Geological Survey). 

ii
Flood of July 27–31, 2006, on the Grand River near 

Painesville, Ohio 

By Andrew D. Ebner, James M. Sherwood, Brian Astifan, and Kirk Lombardy 

In cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency 

Open-File Report 2007–1164 

U.S. Department of the Interior 

U.S. Geological Survey 

iii
U.S. Department of the Interior 

DIRK KEMPTHORNE, Secretary 

U.S. Geological Survey 

Mark D. Myers, Director 

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia 2007 

For product and ordering information: 

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its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment: 

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Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS 

Suggested citation: 

Ebner, A.D.; Sherwood, J.M.; Astifan, Brian; and Lombardy, Kirk, 2007, Flood of July 27–31, 2006, on the 

Grand River near Painesville, Ohio: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007–1164, 17 p. 

Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply 

endorsement by the U.S. Government. 

Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual 

copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted material contained within this report. 

iv
Contents 

Abstract................................................................................................................................................................................1 

Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................................1 

Meteorological Conditions Associated With the Flood...............................................................................................4 

Antecedent Conditions ..................................................................................................................................................4 

Storms of July 27–28, 2006 ............................................................................................................................................4 

General Description of the Flood.....................................................................................................................................7 

Areal Distribution............................................................................................................................................................7 

High-Water Marks, Flood Stages, Streamflows, and Recurrence Intervals .......................................................7 

Flood Damages..............................................................................................................................................................16 

Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................16 

Acknowledgments............................................................................................................................................................16 

References Cited ..............................................................................................................................................................17 

Figures 

1. Map showing the Grand River and its drainage basin ............................................................................................2

2. Map showing locations of high-water marks (HWM) near Painesville, and the Villages of 

Fairport Harbor and Grand River........................................................................................................................3 

3. Maps showing regionally averaged monthly total precipitation and percentage of normal 

precipitation for the 10 climatic regions of Ohio, June and July 2006 ........................................................5 

4. Isohyetal map of 48-hour rainfall totals for July 27–28, 2006..................................................................................8

5. Hydrographs from the USGS streamflow-gaging station on the Grand River near Painesville 

for July 26–August 4, 2006. A, Stage hydrograph. B, Streamflow hydrograph......................................14

6. Graph showing high-water-mark elevations for the Grand River in Lake County, Ohio, 

on July 28, 2006....................................................................................................................................................15 

Tables 

1. Elevation of high-water marks on the left bank of the Grand River at selected locations 

in Lake County, Ohio, for July 2006 flooding.....................................................................................................9 

2. Elevation of high-water marks on the right bank of the Grand River at selected locations 

in Lake County, Ohio, for July 2006 flooding...................................................................................................11 

3. Peak stage and peak streamflow at the USGS streamflow-gaging station at Grand River 

near Painesville, Ohio, July 2006......................................................................................................................13 

v
Conversion Factors 

Multiply By To obtain 

Length 

inch (in.) 25.4 millimeter (mm) 

foot (ft) 0.3048 meter (m) 

mile (mi) 1.609 kilometer (km) 

Area 

square mile (mi2) 2.590 square kilometer (km2) 

Flow rate 

cubic foot per second (ft3/s) 0.02832 cubic meter per second (m3/s) 

knot 1.688 feet per second (ft/s) 

feet per second 0.3048 meters per second 

Vertical coordinate information is referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). 

Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83). 

Elevation, as used in this report, refers to distance above the vertical datum. 

All times reported herein are Eastern Daylight Time. 

vi
Flood of July 27–31, 2006, on the Grand River near 

Painesville, Ohio 

By Andrew D. Ebner1, James M. Sherwood1, Brian Astifan2, and Kirk Lombardy2

Abstract 

Two separate weather systems produced storms resulting in more than 11 inches of rain in parts 

of Lake County, Ohio, on July 27–28, 2006. As a result of the storms and ensuing flooding caused by 

the weather systems, the counties of Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula were declared Federal and State 

disaster areas, with damages estimated at $30 million and one fatality in Lake County. About 600 

people were evacuated in Lake County. The U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station at Grand 

River near Painesville, Ohio (station 04212100), had a record peak stage of 19.35 feet (elevation, 

614.94 feet), with a record peak streamflow of 35,000 cubic feet per second and an estimated recurrence 

interval of approximately 500 years. 

This report describes the meteorological factors that resulted in severe flooding on the Grand 

River near Painesville from July 27 to July 31, 2006, and addresses the damages caused by the storms 

and flooding. Peak-stage, peak-streamflow, and recurrence-interval data are reported for the Grand 

River near Painesville. A plot of high-water marks is also presented for the Grand River in a reach that 

includes the City of Painesville, Painesville Township, the Village of Fairport Harbor, and the Village 

of Grand River. 

Introduction 

After an unusually wet June and July in northeastern Ohio, intense rains and thunderstorms on 

July 27–28, 2006, caused extensive flooding along the Grand River in the areas of the City of 

Painesville, Painesville Township, the Village of Fairport Harbor, and the Village of Grand River 

(figs. 1 and 2). The river did not recede below flood stage until July 31. The storms caused severe 

flooding across three counties (Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula) in northeastern Ohio, all of which were 

declared Federal and State disaster areas (FEMA–1656–DR, Ohio declared on August 1, 2006). One 

death was attributed to flooding in Lake County, but no fatalities were associated with the flooding of 

the Grand River. About 600 people were evacuated from their homes, and roads were closed throughout 

Lake County. 

Because of the magnitude of this flood, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 

the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), did a study to gather and describe pertinent 

flood information to document this historic event. Documentation of flood events can assist Federal, 

State, and local agencies in making informed decisions on flood-plain management and flood 

emergency practices. 

 

1

 U.S. Geological Survey. 

2

 National Weather Service, Cleveland, Ohio. 

1
 

 

Figure 1. The Grand River and its drainage basin. (Dashed box indicates area highlighted in figure 2.) 

2
Figure 2. Locations of high-water marks (HWM) near Painesville, and the Villages of Fairport Harbor and 

Grand River. HWM 1 is another 5 miles upstream and is not shown on this map. Map shows area within 

the dashed box in figure 1. (Disconnected parts of Painesville Township flank the municipalities shown.) 

3
This report describes the results of that study. The climate preceding and the meteorological 

conditions leading to the flood are discussed. A general description of the flood is presented, based on 

data from the USGS streamflow-gaging station on the Grand River near Painesville (station 04212100) 

and associated high-water marks. Damage estimates to Lake County due to this event also are listed. 

Meteorological Conditions Associated With the Flood 

The storms of July 27–28, 2006, occurred at the end of a 2-month wet period in northeastern 

Ohio. Several storms tracked through north and northeastern Ohio during June and early July, bringing 

heavy rains and flooding to much of the region. These wet conditions likely contributed to the severity 

of the flooding that resulted from the July 27–28 storms. 

Antecedent Conditions 

June 2006. Precipitation for much of Ohio was above normal3 during this month. The National 

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) divides Ohio into 10 regions based on similar 

climatological characteristics. As shown in figure 3, only the Northwest, South Central, and Southeast 

Regions had below-normal precipitation, whereas precipitation in the other seven regions was above 

normal. The Northeast Region, which contains Lake County, had the third-highest average rainfall (5.42 

inches) in Ohio for the month. Severe storms on June 21–22, 2006, brought heavy rains to the northern 

third of the State and flooding to the Northeast and North Central Regions. June 2006 was the 12thwettest June for the Northeast Region in the 112 years preceding this event (Kirk, 2006a). 

July 2006. Precipitation in all 10 climatologic regions was above normal during this month (fig. 

3). The Northeast Region had the highest average rainfall, receiving 8.47 inches. Within the Northeast 

Region, Painesville (Lake County) received 14.61 inches, and Chardon (Geauga County) received 14.01 

inches. Widespread showers during the first week of the month brought 1–2 inches to most of the State. 

Storms on July 10–14 brought another 1–2 inches to most of Ohio, with 3–6 inches falling in northern 

parts of the State. Storms on July 21–22 stretched from southwestern to northeastern Ohio and brought 

another 1–2 inches of precipitation. July 2006 ranks as the 10th-wettest July for the entire State, and the 

3d-wettest July for the Northeast Region in the 124 years preceding this event (Kirk, 2006b). 

Storms of July 27–28, 2006 

Early on the morning of July 27, 2006, northern Ohio was bounded by a weak stationary front 

that extended from Iowa across central Michigan and southern Ontario, Canada, and a subtropical highpressure center over Georgia. This produced a weak, low-shear westerly wind pattern aloft over 

northern Ohio and Lake Erie, causing storms to move nearly due east throughout the day. Close to the 

surface, south to southwesterly winds brought a steady stream of very moist, unstable tropical air 

northward into the region. As thunderstorms developed and were moved eastward by the winds aloft, 

the low-level flow replenished the moisture quickly, allowing additional storms to form in their wake. 

For much of the flood event, the winds at these two levels remained nearly constant, maintaining 

convection (the vertical movement of air, such as warm air rising) once it developed. 

 

3

 “Normal” refers to the average value for the period 1951–2000 (Kirk, 2006 a,b). 

4
Figure 3. Regionally averaged monthly total precipitation and percentage of normal precipitation for the 

10 climatic regions of Ohio, June and July 2006 (from Kirk, 2006 a,b). 

5
The tropical air mass in place over northern Ohio during this flood event played a key role in 

allowing the thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values—a measure of how 

much total water is in the atmosphere at a given location—were greater than 2 inches on the day of the 

flood. The precipitable water values were greater than 2 standard deviations above normal for the month 

of July. The atmosphere was also very warm, with the freezing level nearly 3 miles above the surface. 

These two factors limited intrusion of dry air into the storms and maximized the production of raindrops 

within the storms, resulting in intense rainfall rates. 

Two distinct rounds of thunderstorm activity occurred during this flood: the first during the 

afternoon and evening of July 27 and the second overnight. In both cases, thunderstorms formed or 

intensified over Lake Erie before moving into Lake County, but the root cause of the convection in each 

storm was different. During the first half of the flood event on July 27, daytime heating and the 

development of a lake-breeze boundary along the southern edge of Lake Erie provided the lift and focus 

required for convection to begin. Thunderstorms began near the western Lake Erie islands during the 

late morning of July 27 and were pushed across the lake by the weak, westerly upper-level flow. These 

thunderstorms, which intensified as they moved over the lake, reached Lake County during the early 

afternoon. 

In the wake of these storms, thunderstorm development continued along a developing lakebreeze boundary west of Lake County. This boundary remained nearly stationary for much of the 

afternoon and evening and provided the focus for repeated thunderstorm development. Flooding began 

during the late afternoon of July 27 throughout Lake County as the intense rainfall from these storms 

overwhelmed small creeks and storm sewers. 

In the evening, some brief weakening in the convection across northern Ohio was noted. 

However, shortly after solar heating was lost, an upper-level disturbance (shortwave) moved eastward 

from the upper Mississippi River Valley into the lower Great Lakes, enhancing thunderstorm activity 

across the region. By 9:00 p.m., a nearly unbroken line of eastward-moving convection stretched from 

central Illinois and northern Indiana across Lake Erie to northeast Ohio. As the evening progressed, this 

area of thunderstorm activity matured into a mesoscale convective complex4

, driven by a 35-knot 

nocturnal low-level jet (that is, a fast wind at a low level in the atmosphere that transports moisture). 

This jet provided a persistent source of tropical air into the rear of the complex, allowing thunderstorms 

to maintain their intensity and produce torrential rainfall rates. The persistent westerly flow aloft and 

southwesterly flow at the surface allowed thunderstorms developing on the leading edge of this complex 

to maintain their eastward path across Lake Erie into the Grand River Basin. With streams and creeks 

now running high (Grand River near Painesville gage height was 10.24 feet at 9:00 p.m.) and soils 

already saturated from the afternoon convection, flooding ensued as the complex moved over northern 

Ohio. 

 

4

 Mesoscale convective complexes typically form during the afternoon and evening in the form of several isolated 

thunderstorms, which expand in scale because of extremely divergent flow aloft, such as near the split in an upper level jet 

stream. Early in the life cycle of the complex, the potential for severe weather is greatest. As the system matures, a stratified 

cloud layer with embedded heavy rain forms behind the leading thunderstorms. During peak intensity, the primary threat 

shifts from severe weather toward heavy rain and flooding. 

6
Early on July 28, the upper-level disturbance moved east of the area, stabilizing the atmosphere 

and bringing an end to the thunderstorms. Radar and raingage reports indicated that 5 to 10 inches of 

rain had fallen across Lake County during a roughly 17-hour period, with more than half of the rain 

falling at the end of the event between midnight and 5:00 a.m. on July 28. Over the 48-hour period of 

July 27–28, 11.35 inches of rain fell at the Painesville Waste Water Treatment Plant (Randy Bruback 

and Joe Elliot, City of Painesville Division of Water Pollution Control, oral commun., 2006). This 

rainfall rate exceeds the 1,000-year recurrence interval for 48-hour rainfall intensity for Painesville 

(National Weather Service, 2007a). An isohyetal map of the 48-hour rainfall totals for July 27–28, 2006, 

is shown in figure 4. 

General Description of the Flood 

The following sections present information about the flood and associated damages that resulted 

from the July 27–28 storms. Although these storms caused flooding throughout Lake, Geauga, and 

Ashtabula Counties, this report focuses on flooding along the Grand River in the City of Painesville, 

Painesville Township, the Village of Fairport Harbor, and the Village of Grand River (fig. 2). The 

omission of communities outside of this study area is not a reflection on the severity of the flooding or 

the impact on those communities 

Areal Distribution 

The storms of July 27–28 led to severe flooding in northeastern Ohio, and caused enough 

damage for the counties of Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula to be declared Federal and State disaster areas. 

The most severe flooding in the Painesville area occurred in the areas of Hidden Harbor Drive in 

Fairport Harbor; at the Springlake Mobile Home Park on Huntington Road in Painesville; and on East 

Main Street, Grand River Avenue, Millstone Drive, and Gristmill Drive in Painesville. In the lower 1.5- 

to 2-mile reach of the Grand River, the water remained within the banks. 

At the USGS streamflow-gaging station on the Grand River near Painesville (fig. 2), the water 

level rose more than 10 feet in a 12-hour period, ultimately exceeding the National Weather Service 

flood stage of 8 feet (2007b) by 11.35 feet (fig. 5a). Streamflow at this site increased more than 26,000 

cubic feet per second in a 12-hour period (fig. 5b). 

High-Water Marks, Flood Stages, Streamflows, and Recurrence Intervals 

USGS crews identified and surveyed 34 high-water marks along the Grand River on July 28, 

August 2–3, and September 8, 2006. High-water-mark elevations were surveyed by means of standard 

surveying techniques. To supplement this high-water-mark dataset, information on six high-water marks 

identified by the Lake County Engineer’s office is also listed (tables 1 and 2, fig. 2). 

Elevations of high-water marks were obtained to document peak water elevations throughout the 

study area and to calculate the peak stage during the flood. High-water marks are an indication of the 

highest water level at a point during the flood, but they are not always accurate because debris or 

sediment may not be available at the time of high water. A scatterplot is shown in figure 6 of highwater-mark elevations measured by USGS and by the Lake County Engineer’s office. 

The Grand River near Painesville exceeded the flood stage on July 27, 2006, and did not fall 

below the flood stage until July 31. Peak-stage and peak-streamflow data from the July 2006 flood are 

listed in table 3 for the USGS streamflow-gaging station at Grand River near Painesville, Ohio (station 

04212100). The known peak stage and peak streamflow prior to 2006 and the recurrence interval for the 

2006 flood are also listed in table 3. 

7
Figure 4. Isohyetal map of 48-hour rainfall totals for July 27–28, 2006. 

8
Table 1. Elevation of high-water marks on the left bank of the Grand River at selected locations in Lake County, O

flooding. Locations of high-water marks are shown on figure 2.[Data collected and compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey Ohio Water Science Center unless otherwise noted. Abbreviations: HWM identifier; SR, State Route; U.S., U.S. Route] 

Community Latitude Longitude 

Distance from 

mouth of river 

(thousands of 

feet) 

Elevation 

(feet) Description and location of high

HWM ID 

Leroy 

Township 41o 43' 28" -81o 10' 56" 76.0 640.52 Observation by the Lake County Storm Water Ma

peak stage in center of Vrooman Road near bridge 

1 

Painesville 

Township 2 41o 42' 17" -81o 13' 49" 51.9 622.12 Mud line on pavilion at Helen Hazen Wyman Park

City of 

Painesville 3 41o 43' 10" -81o 13' 43" 46.3 616.38 Debris line upstream of old bridge for E. Walnut A

City of 

Painesville 4 41o 43' 11" -81o 13' 42" 46.0 614.49 Mud line on drain pipe near new bridge for E. Wa

City of 

Painesville 5 41o 43' 11" -81o 13' 41" 46.0 614.40 Drift line downstream from new bridge for E. Wal

City of 

Painesville 6 41o 43' 11" -81o 13' 42" 46.0 614.17 Drift line downstream from new bridge for E. Wal

City of 

Painesville 7 41o 43' 11" -81o 13' 41" 46.0 614.61 Debris on lawn at 535 E. Walnut Ave. between ho

City of 

Painesville 8 41o 43' 12" -81o 13' 41" 45.9 613.54 Drift line behind garage at 535 E. Walnut Ave. (SR 

City of 

Painesville 14 41o 43' 40" -81o 14' 21" 36.5 605.92 Latimore Road. 1

City of 

Painesville 16 41o 43' 45" -81o 14' 23" 35.5 602.84 Mud line on rear post of visitors' bleachers at Jack 

City of 

Painesville 17 41o 43' 45" -81o 14' 24" 35.5 602.84 Mud line under visitors' bleachers at Jack Britt Fie

City of 

Painesville 18 41o 43' 45" -81o 14' 24" 35.5 602.84 Mud line on rear post of visitors' bleachers at Jack 

19 City of Painesville 41o 44' 11" -81o 13' 47" 31.4 601.54 Mud line on Eckart office building at 830 E. Erie 

9
Table 1. Elevation of high-water marks on the left bank of the Grand River at selected locations in Lake County, O

for July 2006 flooding.—Continued [Data collected and compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey Ohio Water Science Center unless otherwise noted. Abbreviations: HWM identifier; SR, State Route; U.S., U.S. Route] 

Community Latitude Longitude 

Distance from 

mouth of river 

(thousands of 

feet) 

Elevation 

(feet) Description and location of high

HWM ID 

City of 

Painesville 20 41o 43' 40" -81o 14' 21" 29.8 596.60 Eastbound SR 2 on the bridge over the Grand Riv

1

Painesville 

Township 21 41o 44' 26" -81o 13' 54" 29.8 596.38 Westbound SR 2 on the bridge over the Grand Riv

1

Painesville 

Township 22 41o 44' 25" -81o 13' 60" 29.8 596.12 Eastbound SR 2 west of the Grand River. 1

Painesville 

Township 23 41o 44' 26" -81o 13' 59" 29.8 596.14 Westbound SR 2 west of the Grand River. 1

Painesville 

Township 24 41o 44' 25" -81o 14' 05" 29.7 595.66 Median of SR 2 west of the Grand River. 1

City of 

Painesville 41o 44' 37" -81o 15' 41" 16.1 585.98 Observation by employee of Painesville Waste W

State Street of peak stage at top of stairs at Buildin

28 

City of 

Painesville 31 41o 44' 07" -81o 15' 57" 12.4 582.82 Mud line on bridge for SR 535 on left bank. 

Village of 

Grand River 41o 44' 38" -81o 16' 55" 6.6 572.55 Observation by employee of Grand River Marine 

launch at marina at end of Charles Street. 38 

Painesville 

Township 41o 45' 36" -81o 16' 52" 0.6 572.86 Observation by U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) employ

of USCG boat launch at 2 Coast Guard Road. 40 

1Data collected and compiled by the Lake County Engineer’s office. 

10
Table 2. Elevation of high-water marks on the right bank of the Grand River at selected locations in Lake County, 

flooding. Locations of high-water marks are shown on figure 2. 

[Data collected and compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey Ohio Water Science Center. Abbreviations: HWM ID, high-water mark id

Community Latitude Longitude 

Distance from 

mouth of river 

(thousands of 

feet) 

Elevation 

(feet) Description and location of high

HWM ID 

City of 

Painesville 9 41o 43' 22" -81o 14' 04" 39.2 609.09 Mud line on door of garage at 227 Grand River Av

City of 

Painesville 10 41o 43' 28" -81o 14' 10" 37.9 606.70 Mud line on electric meter box at 330 E. Main Str

City of 

Painesville 11 41o 43' 35" -81o 14' 05" 36.4 605.79 Mud line in support pole in front of 65–69 Gristm

City of 

Painesville 12 41o 43' 35" -81o 14' 05" 36.4 605.79 Mud line in support pole in front of 65–69 Gristm

City of 

Painesville 13 41o 43' 35" -81o 14' 05" 36.4 605.78 Mud line in support pole in front of 65–69 Gristm

City of 

Painesville 15 41o 44' 40" -81o 14' 08" 36.1 605.60 Seed line inside garage at 24 Millstone Drive. 

Painesville 

Township 41o 44' 29" -81o 13' 52" 29.6 595.25 Mud line on community information board for Sp

on Huntington Road. 25 

Painesville 

Township 41o 44' 30" -81o 13' 50" 29.4 595.16 Water line on shed door in Springlake Mobile Hom

on Huntington Road. 26 

Painesville 

Township 27 41o 44' 59" -81o 15' 18" 19.6 589.25 Debris in trees near pipeline bridge. 

Village of 

Fairport 

Harbor 

29 41o 44' 28" -81o 15' 48" 15.1 585.64 Mud line on bridge for St. Clair Street at Grand R

Village of 

Fairport 

Harbor 

30 41o 44' 12" -81o 16' 10" 13.1 581.64 Mud line in garage at 606 Hidden Harbor Drive. 32 

Village of 

Fairport 

Harbor 

41o 44' 09" -81o 16' 00" 12.5 580.93 Mud line on bridge for SR 535 on right bank. 

11
Table 2. Elevation of high-water marks on the right bank of the Grand River at selected locations in Lake County, 

for July 2006 flooding.—Continued [Data collected and compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey Ohio Water Science Center. Abbreviations: HWM ID, high-water mark id

Community Latitude Longitude 

Distance from 

mouth of river 

(thousands of 

feet) 

Elevation 

(feet) Description and location of high

HWM ID 

Village of 

Fairport 

Harbor 

33 41o 44' 11" -81o 16' 06" 12.1 579.30 Drift line behind 616 Hidden Harbor Drive. 

Village of 

Fairport 

Harbor 

34 41o 44' 11" -81o 16' 19" 10.6 578.75 Mud line on electric box on clubhouse for River E

Village of 

Fairport 

Harbor 

35 41o 44' 16" -81o 16' 21" 9.8 578.16 Mud line on electric box near restrooms in Riverb

Village of 

Fairport 

Harbor 

36 41o 44' 17" -81o 16' 26" 9.8 576.61 Mud line on boat cradle in Riverbend Marina. 

Village of 

Fairport 

Harbor 

37 41o 44' 17" -81o 16' 28" 9.5 576.52 Mud line on electric box for boat slips 6A–7B in R

Village of 

Fairport 

Harbor 

39 41o 44' 44" -81o 16' 42" 5.3 573.18 Mud line on side wall of boat basin at Grand Rive

12
13

Table 3. Peak stage and peak streamflow at the USGS streamflow-gaging station at Grand River near Painesville[Abbreviations: mi2, square miles; ft, feet above gage datum; ft3/s, cubic feet per second] 

Maximum Prior to 2006 Maximum in 20

Station 

number 

Stream and 

place of 

determination 

Drainage 

area 

(mi2) 

Gage 

datum 

(NAVD 

88) 

Period of 

systematic 

record (water 

years)1

Year Stage (ft) Streamflow (ft3/s) Date Stage (ft) 

04212100 Grand River near Painesville 685 595.59 1975 – present 1986 13.072 18,700 7/28/2006 19.35 1A water year is a 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. 2A peak stage of 13.16 ft occurred in 1980 but was associated with a peak streamflow of only 16,900 ft3/s. 
Figure 5. Hydrographs from the USGS streamflow-gaging station on the Grand River near Painesville for 

July 26–August 4, 2006. A, Stage hydrograph showing gage height above datum and elevation of water 

surface. Red line shown in A denotes the flood stage for the Grand River near Painesville as defined by 

National Weather Service (2007b). B, Streamflow hydrograph. 

14
Figure 6. High-water-mark elevations for the Grand River in Lake County, Ohio, on July 28, 2006. Highwater marks listed in tables 1 and 2. Labels correspond to landmarks shown in figure 6. Grand River near 

Painesville streamflow-gaging station is on the State Route 84 bridge. 

An estimated peak stage of 19.35 feet (elevation 614.94 feet) occurred at 5:30 a.m. on July 28, 

2006. The peak stage was estimated on the basis of high-water elevations upstream and downstream 

from the station as well as the peak stage recorded at the station. Standard USGS techniques were used 

to compute the streamflow corresponding to the peak stage (Rantz, 1982). An extension of the most 

recent stage-discharge relation indicates a peak streamflow of 35,000 cubic feet per second associated 

with the stage of 19.35 feet. 

The peak streamflow of 35,000 cubic feet per second on the Grand River near Painesville, Ohio, 

has an estimated recurrence interval of approximately 500 years, based on a log-Pearson Type III 

analysis of annual peak streamflows including this flood and the entire period of record (Interagency 

Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982). 

15
Flood Damages 

According to the Lake County Emergency Management Agency (Larry Greene, written 

commun., 2007), flooding on July 27–31, 2006, caused an estimated $30 million in damage to Lake 

County. No fatalities were associated with the flooding of the Grand River, but one person was killed as 

a result of flooding elsewhere in Lake County. Because flooding began overnight, evacuation of flooded 

areas was difficult. In total, 600 people had to be evacuated from their homes. Over all of Lake County, 

100 homes and businesses were destroyed, including 81 in the Painesville area, and an additional 731 

homes and businesses were damaged. Flooding destroyed 5 bridges in the county, and 13 roads were 

closed as a result of flood damage. 

Summary 

Solar heating produced thunderstorms over Lake Erie during the afternoon of July 27, 2006, 

bringing the first round of storms to Lake County, Ohio. Overnight, another group of thunderstorms (a 

mesoscale convective complex) moved over the region, bringing a second round of storms. The most 

intense rainfall from these storms was centered over Lake County, with 5–10 inches falling over most of 

the county during July 27–28. More than 11 inches of rain was recorded in Painesville during this 48-

hour period; this rainfall event has an estimated recurrence interval in excess of 1,000 years. 

Severe flooding occurred in Lake County between July 27 and July 31, 2006. Three counties in 

northeast Ohio (Lake, Geauga, and Asthabula) were declared Federal and State disaster areas. The 

storms and flooding in Lake County caused approximately $30 million in damages, and one fatality 

resulted from flooding in the county. 

In cooperation with FEMA, the USGS has documented this historic flood. The flagging and 

surveying of high-water marks permitted estimation of the peak stage and peak streamflow of the Grand 

River during the flood. Record peak stage (19.35 ft) and peak streamflow (35,000 cubic feet per second) 

occurred at the USGS streamflow-gaging station on the Grand River near Painesville at 5:30 a.m. on 

July 28, 2006. This record peak streamflow has an estimated recurrence interval of approximately 500 

years. 

Acknowledgments 

Special thanks are extended to Richard Kotapish and Jim Branch of the Lake County GIS 

Department for providing Lake County GIS data, and to Mitch Ferguson of the Lake County Engineers 

Office for contributing data for several high-water marks. Pictures of the flood were supplied by 

Barbara Petersen of Eckart America Corporation in Painesville, and Timothy Snell of the Lake County 

General Health District. 

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References Cited 

Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982, Guidelines for determining flood flow 

frequency–Bulletin 17-B of the Hydrology Subcommittee: Reston, Va., U.S. Geological Survey, 

Office of Water Data Coordination, 183 p. 

Kirk, S.C., compiler, 2006a, Monthly water inventory report for Ohio, June 2006: Ohio Department of 

Natural Resources Division of Water, 4 p. 

Kirk, S.C., compiler 2006b, Monthly water inventory report for Ohio, July 2006: Ohio Department of 

Natural Resources Division of Water, 4 p. 

National Weather Service, 2007a, National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Design Studies 

Center Precipitation Frequency Data Server, accessed on February 5, 2007, at 

http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/orb/oh_pfds.html. 

National Weather Service, 2007b, National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, 

accessed March 7, 2007, at 

http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=cle&gage=pnvo1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1.

Rantz, S.E., and others, 1982, Measurement and computation of streamflow: U.S. Geological Survey 

Water-Supply Paper 2175, 2 v., 631 p. 

17