SR/O&G/2000-02

Potential Oil Production

from the

Coastal Plain

of the

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge:

Updated Assessment

May 2000

Energy Information Administration

Office of Oil and Gas

U. S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the

U. S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration

and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy of the Department of Energy or any other organization.
Energy Information Administration

Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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Energy Information Administration

Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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Preface

Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain

of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated

Assessment is a product of the Energy

Information Administration’s (EIA) Reserves

and Production Division. EIA, under various

programs, has assessed foreign and domestic oil

and gas resources, reserves, and production

potential. As a policy-neutral agency, EIA’s

standard analysis of the potential of the Alaska

North Slope (ANS) has focused on the areas

without exploration and development

restrictions.

EIA received a letter (dated March 10, 2000)

from Senator Frank H. Murkowski as Chairman

of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural

Resources requesting an EIA Service Report

“with plausible scenarios for ANWR supply

development consistent with the most recent

U.S. Geological Survey resource assessments.”

This service report is prepared in response to the

request of Senator Murkowski. It focuses on the

ANWR coastal plain, a region currently

restricted from exploration and development,

and updates EIA’s 1987 ANWR assessment.

Recognizing the value of this study, readers

should be aware of the limitations of the

projections. There are many underlying forces

of energy markets that cannot be known with

certainty, such as the speed of technological

development, the impact of variations in oil

prices, changes in legislation, and impacts of the

economy on supply and demand. The USGS

resource estimates, on which the production

estimates are based, have a sizeable range of

uncertainty around them, of which readers

should be aware. To allow timely completion of

this study, simplifying assumptions were made

which add to the uncertainty of the projections.

For example, production schedules were

postulated without specifying the effect of

various levels of oil prices and technology

advancements. Rapid technology growth can

yield lower costs and faster development, with

the reverse effect given slower technology

growth. Oil price is a key factor in determining

when production becomes economic.

General information about this publication may

be obtained from John H. Wood, Director of the

Reserves and Production Division, (214) 720-

6150. Specific information regarding the

contents or preparation of this report may be

obtained from Floyd Wiesepape, (214) 720-

6166, fax (214) 720-6155, or e-mail

floyd.wiesepape@eia.doe.gov.
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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Contents

Page

Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... vii

1. Overview of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge ...................................................................... 1

Background ............................................................................................................................ 1

Geographic Setting ................................................................................................................. 1

Geology .................................................................................................................................. 3

2. Analysis Discussion ....................................................................................................................... 5

Resource Assessment ............................................................................................................. 5

Method of Analysis ................................................................................................................ 6

ANWR Coastal Plain Assessment .......................................................................................... 8

95 Percent Probability Case ...................................................................................... 8

Mean Case ................................................................................................................. 9

5 Percent Probability Case ........................................................................................ 10

Development Rate Summary ..................................................................................... 11

Economic Impact ....................................................................................................... 12

3. Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 14

Glossary ........................................................................................................... 15

References .......................................................................................................................................... 16
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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Page

Figures

1. Map of Northern Alaska and Northwestern Canada Showing the Locations of the

National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR),

1002 Area, Current Productive Area, and Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) ........................ 2

2. Stratigraphic Summary of Ages, Names and Rock Types in the ANWR 1002 and

Coastal Plain Area of the Alaska North Slope. Potentially Productive Reservoirs

and Plays Assessed by the USGS are Indicated ............................................................................. 4

3. Production Schedules at Two Development Rates for the 95 Percent Probability of

Recovering 5.7 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil from the ANWR

Coastal Plain of Alaska .................................................................................................................... 8

4. Production Schedules at Two Development Rates for the Statistical Mean of

Recovering 10.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil from the ANWR

Coastal Plain of Alaska .................................................................................................................... 9

5. Production Schedules at Two Development Rates for the 5% Probability of

Recovering 16.0 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil from the ANWR

Coastal Plain of Alaska .................................................................................................................... 10

6. Projected Production for the Low Development Rate of Technically Recoverable

Oil Estimated at 5 Percent, Mean, and 95 Percent Probabilities for the ANWR

Coastal Plain of the Alaska North Slope.......................................................................................... 11

7. Projected Production for the High Development Rate of Technically Recoverable

Oil Estimated at 5 Percent, Mean, and 95 Percent Probabilities for the ANWR

Coastal Plain of the Alaska North Slope.......................................................................................... 12

8. Technically Recoverable and Commercially Developable Oil at 95 Percent, Mean, and

5 Percent Probabilities for Given Oil Prices as a Percentage of Technically Recoverable

Oil for the ANWR 1002 Area of the Alaska North Slope................................................................ 13
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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Executive Summary

This Service Report, Potential Oil Production

from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National

Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment, was

prepared for the U.S. Senate Committee on

Energy and Natural Resources at the request of

Chairman Frank H. Murkowski in a letter dated

March 10, 2000. The request asked the Energy

Information Administration (EIA) to develop

plausible scenarios for Arctic National Wildlife

Refuge (ANWR) supply development consistent

with the most recent U.S. Geological Survey

(USGS) resource assessments.

This report contains EIA projections of future

daily production rates using recent USGS

resource estimates. The Coastal Plain study area

includes 1.5 million acres in the ANWR 1002

Area, 92,000 acres of Native Inupiat lands and

State of Alaska offshore lands out to the 3-mile

limit which are expected to be explored and

developed if and when ANWR is developed.

(Figure ES1) About 26 percent of the

technically recoverable oil resources are in the

Native and State lands.

The Coastal Plain region, which comprises

approximately 8 percent of the 19 million-acre

ANWR, is along the geologic trend that is

productive in the Prudhoe Bay area, 60 miles

west. This is the largest unexplored, potentially

productive onshore basin in the United States.

The 1002 area is now closed to exploration and

development, although Native and State lands

are open.

The USGS made the following estimates in 1998

of technically recoverable oil and natural gas

liquids from the ANWR Coastal Plain:

! There is a 95 percent probability (a 19 in 20

chance) that at least 5.7 billion barrels of oil

are recoverable.

! There is a 5 percent probability (a 1 in 20

chance) that at least 16 billion barrels of oil

are recoverable.

! The mean (expected value) estimate is 10.3

billion barrels of recoverable oil.

By comparison, total 1998 U.S. proved reserves

of crude oil were estimated to be 21 billion

barrels and the 1993 estimate of undiscovered

technically recoverable oil for the onshore lower

48 States (that would come from tens of

thousands of small fields) was about 23 billion

barrels.

Figure ES1. Map of Northern Alaska

 Source: Edited from U.S. Geological Survey, “The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002

Area, Alaska,” Open File Report 98-34, 1999.
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EIA postulated yearly development rates of the

resources without specifying the effect of

various levels of oil prices and technology

advances, and then projected daily production

rates based on the USGS estimates, as follows:

• Low and high ANWR yearly development

rates ranging from 250 to 800 million barrels

per year are postulated for each of the three

USGS estimates, forming 6 cases.

• Projected ANWR peak production rates

range from 650,000 to 1.9 million barrels per

day across the 6 cases.

• For the mean resource case (10.3 billion

barrels technically recoverable), ANWR peak

production rates range from 1.0 to 1.35

million barrels per day.

• Even with nearby production infrastructure, 7

to 12 years would be needed for lease sales,

permitting and environmental reviews after

approval for leasing. It is projected that initial

ANWR production could occur around 2010

if leasing approval occurred within the next

few years.

• The imported refiner acquisition cost in 2020

is projected in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook

2000 reference case at $22.04 (1998 dollars).

At this price, the potential ANWR oil

recovered would have a value between $125

and $350 billion (in 1998 dollars.)
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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1. Overview of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Background

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)

1002 Area of the Alaska North Slope represents

an area of 1.5 million acres. The ANWR Coastal

Plain Area includes the 1002 Area, State of

Alaska lands to the 3-mile limit from the coast

line, and approximately 92,000 acres of Native

Inupiat lands. The area is located between the

Prudhoe Bay area of the Alaska North Slope

(ANS) and the Mackenzie River Delta of Canada

along the Beaufort Sea. The area contains the

largest onshore, unexplored, potentially

productive geologic basins in the United States.

The 1002 Area is approximately 8 percent of the

19 million-acre ANWR.

The original Arctic National Wildlife Range of

8.9 million acres was created in 1960 by Public

Law Order 2214. In 1980 the Alaska National

Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA)

created 16 National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska.

ANWR was enlarged to 19 million acres

including the 8.9 million-acre wilderness area.

Section 1002 of ANILCA deferred a decision on

the management of oil and gas exploration and

development of 1.5 million acres of potentially

productive lands in the coastal plain of ANWR

(which is why it is called the “1002 Area.”)

Potential for oil and gas discovery is great

because the area is an extension of the productive

trends west of the area toward Prudhoe Bay and

east toward the Canadian discoveries of the

Mackenzie Delta. Congressional action would be

required to open the land for exploration and

development. In 1987 the Department of Interior

recommended opening the area for oil and gas

exploration and development. In 1995 the House

and Senate approved ANWR 1002 Area

development in the Budget Act that was vetoed

by the President. Interest in the area has

increased recently with the increase in crude oil

prices, declining domestic production, and

increasing imports.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) updated in

1998 a petroleum assessment of the ANWR 1002

Area and the State and Native lands of the coastal

plain. Based on the new information from the

USGS and increased interest in the potential for

production from the area, this analysis is

presented to show the range of potential

production that can be expected from the

development of the ANWR Coastal Plain.

Geographic Setting

The 1002 Area of ANWR covers an area of 1.5

million acres between the Canning and Staines

Rivers on the west, the Aichilik River to the

east, the Beaufort Sea to the north, and the

Brooks Range to the south. The Canning River

western boundary is approximately 60 miles

east of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System

(TAPS) and Prudhoe Bay. The 1002 Area

extends approximately 100 miles from the

Canning and Staines rivers (west boundary) to

the Aichilik River east boundary. The area

extends inland from the coast line of the

Beaufort Sea from 16 to 34 miles to the

foothills of the Brooks Range.

The Alaska native Inupiat have approximately

92,000 acres around the village of Kaktovik.

These lands along with the State offshore lands

to the 3-mile state boundary are included in this

analysis. The study assumes that the resources

of these lands also will be developed if and

when the Federal lands of the 1002 Area are

opened for development.1

The map of Figure 1 shows the location of the

19 million-acre ANWR along the eastern

boundary of the state with Canada. The

locations of the 8.9 million-acre Wilderness

Area and the 1.5 million-acre 1002 Area are

shown in ANWR. The 23 million-acre

National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPR-A)

is shown to the west of ANWR. Parts of the

northeast area of NPR-A were recently opened

for exploration and development. Between

ANWR and NPR-A are the areas that are

currently producing, including Prudhoe Bay.

 

1

 Native and State lands are now open to exploration

and development, but significant development has

not occurred to date.
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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The path of the northern portion of the TransAlaska Pipeline (TAPS) is shown as it heads

toward Valdez in southern Alaska. Also on the

map are the Mackenzie River delta in Canada and

the trend of the Brooks Range across northern

Alaska.

Figure 1. Map of Northern Alaska and Northwestern Canada Showing the Locations of

the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A), Arctic National Wildlife

Refuge (ANWR), 1002 Area, Current Productive Area, and Trans-Alaska

Pipeline System (TAPS).

 Source: Edited from U.S. Geological Survey, “The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002

Area, Alaska,” Open File Report 98-34, 1999.
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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Geology

The description of the geology of the Coastal

Plain is based on outcrops and geophysical data

from seismic surveys of the area. The

extrapolation of known geology and information

from wells drilled offsetting the area provide

additional confidence that potential oil and gas

resources are located in the ANWR 1002 Area

and the Coastal Plain. The stratigraphic section

of Figure 2 shows the source rocks and

petroleum reservoir rocks of the area. The

reservoirs that are productive in other areas of the

ANS are indicated. The 10 plays (similar

geologic settings) that were evaluated by the

USGS are also included in the figure.

The following discussion of the sedimentary

rocks in the area is from the Arctic National

Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, Coastal Plain Reservoir

Assessment, U.S. Department of the Interior,

November 1986, p. 51.

“The area in and adjacent to the 1002 area

is underlain by sedimentary rocks several

tens of thousands of feet thick. These rocks

range in age from Precambrian (greater

than 570 million years old) to Quarternary

(Bader and Bird, 1986). In northern

Alaska, rocks prospective for petroleum

(oil and gas) are mostly Mississippian to

Tertiary in age and overlie folded and

truncated pre-Mississippian rocks. These

rocks are divided into two sequences: the

Ellesmerian sequence of Mississippian to

Early Cretaceous age, and the Brookian

sequence of Early Cretaceous and

younger age. Deposition of the

Ellesmerian sequence occurred when the

land area was to the north and the seaway

was to the south. During deposition of

the Brookian sequence, the geography

was reversed—the land area was to the

south (the ancestral Brooks Range) and

the seaway was to the north, much as it is

today. The differentiation of these two

sequences is important in understanding

depositional history, and in projecting

trends of reservoir rocks. Futhermore,

properties of the Ellesmerian sandstones

are generally better than those of the

Brookian sequence.”

The unique combination of source rocks and

reservoir traps is similar to the geologic

combination of events that caused the

productive reservoirs to the west including the

Prudhoe Bay Field. Therefore, similar results

are anticipated.
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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Figure 2. Stratigraphic Summary of Ages, Names and Rock Types in the ANWR 1002

and Coastal Plain Area of the Alaska North Slope. Potentially Productive

Reservoirs and Plays Assessed by the USGS are Indicated.

 Source: Edited from U.S. Geological Survey, “The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002

Area, Alaska,” Open File Report 98-34, 1999.
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2. Analysis Discussion

Resource Assessment

The USGS most recent assessment of oil and gas

resources of ANWR Coastal Plain (The Oil and

Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National

Wildlife Refuge 1002 Area, Alaska, Open File

Report 98-34, 1999) provided basic information

used in this study. A prior assessment was

completed in 1987 by the USGS. Information

from recent offset drilling, offsetting discoveries,

and new geologic and geophysical data were used

to update the oil and gas resource potential.

An evaluation was made of each of 10 petroleum

plays (similar geologic settings). For each play,

USGS constructed statistical distributions of the

number and size of potential accumulations based

on a probabilistic range of geologic attributes.

Minimum accumulation size was 500 million

barrels. The resulting distributions were

subjected to three risk parameters. Risk was

assigned for the occurrence of adequate

generation and migration of petroleum to meet

the minimum size requirements, for the

occurrence of reservoir rock to contain the

minimum volume, and for the occurrence of a

trapping mechanism to seal the petroleum in the

reservoir. USGS analysts applied an appropriate

recovery factor to the estimated oil in place that

was calculated for each play to obtain an estimate

of technically recoverable petroleum resources.

The combined recovery factor for the entire

study area averages approximately 37 percent

of the initial oil in place. It is likely that the

actual recovery factor of potential large fields

would exceed 37 percent, because the nearby

giant Prudhoe Bay field recovery factor will

exceed 50 percent.

The USGS results for the entire area are shown

in Table 1, which lists the technically

recoverable oil and initial oil in place for the

ANWR 1002 Federal lands and for the entire

Coastal Plain, including State and Native lands.

The leasing of State and Native lands does not

require Congressional action, but development

is expected only if the Federal lands are

available for utilization. That is why they are

included in the analysis. About 26 percent of

the technically recoverable resources are in the

Native and State lands. The ANWR 1002 Area

was also divided into a western undeformed

area, north of the Marsh Creek anticline, and an

eastern deformed area, between the Anticline

and the Brooks Range in the USGS evaluation.

More than 80 percent of the resources

considered are contained in the undeformed

area. The subdivision of resources between the

undeformed and deformed portions is not

considered in this report.

Table 1. Estimates of Technically Recoverable and Oil in Place for the ANWR Coastal

Plain and 1002 Area for 95 Percent, Mean, and 5 Percent Probability Levels

 

 Volume of Oil, Millions of Barrels 

Part of Study Area 95% Probability Mean 5% Probability

ANWR 1002 Area 4,254 7,668 11,799

Oil in Place 11,600 20,700 31,500

Entire Coastal Plain Area 5,724 10,322 15,955

Oil in Place 15,600 27,800 42,300

 (Note: A 95% probability of recovery means that there are 19 chances out of 20 that this volume will be recovered; “mean” means

there are 10 chances out of 20 that this volume will be recovered; and a 5% probability of recovery means there is 1 chance out of

20 that this volume will be recovered.)

 Source: U.S. Geological Survey, “The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002 Area, Alaska,”

Open File Report 98-34, 1999.
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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Method of Analysis

Potential production from the Coastal Plain of

ANWR is based on the USGS estimates of

technically recoverable oil. Production schedules

are created for the statistical 95 percent

probability, mean, and 5 percent probability of

recovering the volumes. Production is scheduled

for two development rates for each of the three

probability estimates. The annual development

rate is not associated with field size but is an

amount attributed to the wells drilled each year.

Several large fields may be discovered in a year

but only a portion is scheduled for production.

Actual development in early years may exceed

development in later years but a constant rate of

development is assumed in this study. (Table 2)

Production schedules are presented for 6

scenarios. The range of potential is from 5.7 to

16.0 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil

(the 95 percent to 5 percent probability range). A

mid-case of 10.3 billion barrels is based on the

statistical mean of the estimates. Two

development rates were chosen for each

probability case to show the effect of

accelerating development activities in the

ANWR area. The development rates were

chosen as volumes that could be developed

within practical drilling and operational limits.

Production rates could be developed for

different development rates, initial production

rates, and decline rates. Technology

improvements could change the recovery

efficiency. The method of estimating the

production schedule is a simplified approach

that does not evaluate productivity, economic

considerations or other factors that could affect

development and production. The development

rates are based on historical development in the

area and engineering judgment based on the

evaluation of performance and operational

activities in the area.

Table 2. Technically Recoverable Resources and Development Rates Associated with

the Projected Production Cases for the ANWR Coastal Plain of the Alaska

North Slope.

 

 Low High

Technically Development Development

Recoverable Rate Rate

Statistical Estimate Cases (BBbls) (MMBbls/yr) (MMBbls/yr)

95% Probability 5.7 250 400

Mean (Expected) 10.3 400 600

5% Probability 16.0 600 800

 

Source: Energy Information Administration, Reserves and Production Division. Technically recoverable barrels are from U.S.

Geological Survey, “The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002 Area, Alaska,” Open File

Report 98-34, 1999.
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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A production schedule for each annual

development volume is based on increasing

production in the first 2 years to a peak

production rate in the third year of

approximately 10 percent of the development

volume. Beginning in the fourth year,

production is assumed to begin to decline at a 10

percent exponential rate. This decline continues

until the total amount of expected recoverable

oil is recovered. The annual production

schedules are summed to obtain a total rate that

recovers the estimated technically recoverable

oil. Production schedules were postulated

without specifying the effect of various levels of

oil prices and technology advancements. That is,

they are based on a simple engineering estimate.

Rapid technology growth can yield lower costs

and faster development, and vice versa.

An example of the method is presented for the

400 million barrel per year development of the

10.3 billion-barrel mean value case in Table 3.

Increasing production in the first and second

years is scheduled as 25,000 and 50,000 barrels

per day, respectively. Peak production of 10

percent of the annual development rate,

approximately 100,000 barrels per day, is

scheduled in the third year of production.

Beginning in the fourth year production declines

at an exponential rate of 10 percent per year,

ending after 40 years. This 40-year production

schedule begins each year for 25 years, for a

total productive life of 65 years. Table 3 shows

a portion of the full table constructed to schedule

the rate of production. The total production for

a given year is the sum of the individual

production rates started that year and in previous

years, as shown in the last column.

Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required

from an approval to explore and develop to first

production from the ANWR Area. This study

uses 9 years to 2010 for the state of potential

production. The time to first production could

vary significantly based on time required for

leasing after approval to develop is given.

Environmental considerations and the possibility

of drilling restrictions also could significantly

affected projected schedules to reach first

production.

Table 3. Example of Production Schedule Projection for 10.3 Billion Barrels Developed

at 400 Million Barrels per Year for the ANWR Coastal Plain

 

Producing Rate for Each Year of Development (Mbbls/day)

Year 1 2 3 4 - -- - -- - - - -25 Total

1 25 -- -- -- ----- -- 25

2 50 25 -- -- ----- -- 75

3 100 50 25 -- ----- -- 175

4 91 100 50 25 ----- -- 266

5 82 91 100 50 ----- -- 348

6 74 82 91 100 ----- -- 422

- - - - - ----- - ---

65 - - - - ----- 2 2

 

Source: Energy Information Administration, Reserves and Production Division.
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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ANWR Coastal Plain

Assessment

The technique explained in the “Method of

Analysis” section is applied to the USGS

estimates of technically recoverable oil published

in the USGS report, The Oil and Gas Resource

Potential of the 1002 Area, Arctic National

Wildlife Refuge, Alaska,” Open File Report 98-

34. Three estimates of technically recoverable

resources are assessed at two development rates

for each estimate. The resource estimates

provide a range from a 95 percent probability, a

mean, to a 5 percent probability of exceeding the

technically recoverable volumes of 5.7, 10.3 and

16.0 billion barrels, respectively, from the

ANWR Coastal Plain. The quantities of

technically recoverable volumes for the same

probability levels for the ANWR 1002 Area are

4.2, 7.7 and 11.8 billion barrels.

95 Percent Probability Case

The USGS estimates that there is a 95 percent

probability (a 19 in 20 chance) that at least 5.7

billion barrels of oil may be technically

recoverable from the ANWR Coastal Plain of

the Alaska North Slope. The original oil in

place corresponding to this recovery is at least

15.6 billion barrels. EIA scheduled daily

production rates for postulated yearly

development rates of 250 and 400 million

barrels per year. The production rate peaks at

650,000 barrels per day for the development of

250 million barrels per year and at 800,000

barrels per day for the 400 million barrels per

year development case. (Figure 3)

Figure 3. Production Schedules at Two Development Rates for the 95 Percent Probability

of Recovering 5.7 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil from the

ANWR Coastal Plain of Alaska.

 Source: Energy Information Administration, Reserves and Production Division. Based on USGS estimates of technically

recoverable oil.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Years After Start of Development

Mbbls/day

250 MMbbls/yr.

Development Rate

400 MMbbls/yr.

Development Rate
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Mean Case

The USGS estimates that the mean or expected

value of the technically recoverable oil is 10.3

billion barrels from the ANWR Coastal Plain of

the Alaska North Slope. The original oil in

place corresponding to this recovery is 27.8

billion barrels. EIA scheduled production rates

are for postulated development rates of 400 and

600 million barrels per year. The production

rate peaks at 1.0 million barrels per day for the

development of 400 million barrels per year case

and at 1.35 million barrels per day for the 600

million barrels per year development case.

(Figure 4)

Figure 4. Production Schedules at Two Development Rates for the Statistical Mean of

Recovering 10.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil from the ANWR

Coastal Plain of Alaska.

Source: Energy Information Administration, Reserves and Production Division. Based on USGS estimates of technically

recoverable oil.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Years After Start of Development

Mbbls/day

400 MMbbls/yr.

Development Rate

600 MMbbls/yr.

Development Rate
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Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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5 Percent Probability Case

The USGS estimates that there is a 5 percent

probability (a 1 in 20 chance) that 16.0 billion

barrels of oil, or more, may be technically

recoverable from the ANWR Coastal Plain of the

Alaska North Slope. The original oil in place

corresponding to this recovery is at least 42.3

billion barrels.

EIA scheduled production rates for postulated

development rates of 600 and 800 million

barrels per year. The production rate peaks at

1.55 million barrels per day for the

development of 600 million barrels per year

case and at 1.90 million barrels per day for the

800 million barrels per year development case.

(Figure 5)

Figure 5. Production Schedules at Two Development Rates for the 5 Percent Probability

of Recovering 16.0 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil from the

ANWR Coastal Plain of Alaska.

 Source: Energy Information Administration, Reserves and Production Division. Based on USGS estimates of technically

recoverable oil.

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Years After Start of Development

Mbbls/day

600 MMbbls/yr.

Development Rate

800 MMbbls/yr.

Development Rate
Energy Information Administration

Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

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Development Rate Summary

The production schedules for the low and high

development rates are summarized in Figures 6

and 7. Many variables affect the rate of

development and the production rates. The

isolated location and harsh environment of the

area limits the number of wells that can be drilled

efficiently. Supply, demand and oil prices will

also control the rate at which development

occurs. Each of the charts shows the range of

potential rates based on the probability ranges

examined. Comparing the two charts shows how

the production would respond to the rate of

development. Production peaks around 20-30

years after the onset of development in all cases.

The analysis assumes that State and Native

lands will be developed concurrently with the

Federal lands. Significant variation in the

development rates could be caused by oil price

fluctuations and the use of infrastructure near

the western boundary of ANWR Coastal Plain.

With non-ANWR production rates expected to

remain near the 1.0 million barrel per day rate

over the next 10 years (EIA

Annual Energy Outlook 2000) sufficient

pipeline capacity exists to allow for the

development of the ANWR Coastal Plain.

Figure 6. Projected Production for the Low Development Rate of Technically

Recoverable Oil Estimated at 5 Percent, Mean, and 95 Percent

Probabilities for the ANWR Coastal Plain of the Alaska North Slope

 Source: Energy Information Administration, Reserves and Production Division. Based on USGS estimates of technically

recoverable oil.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Ye ars Afte r Start of D e v e lopme nt

Mbbls/day

5% P roba bility (600

M M bbls/yr.)

M e a n (400 M M bbls/yr.)

95% P roba bility (250

M M bbls/yr.)
Energy Information Administration

Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

12

Figure 7. Projected Production for the High Development Rate of Technically

Recoverable Oil Estimated at 5 Percent, Mean, and 95 Percent Probabilities

for the ANWR Coastal Plain of the Alaska North Slope.

 Source: Energy Information Administration, Reserves and Production Division. Based on USGS estimates of technically

recoverable oil.

Economic Impact

Economic analyses of the various scenarios of

this report are not presented. An economic

analysis of the ANWR 1002 Area (excluding

Native and State lands) performed by the USGS

is presented in Economics of Undiscovered Oil in

the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife

Refuge. That report, based on the USGS 1998

study of ANWR, presents broad economic

parameters for finding, developing and producing

oil at ANWR 1002 Area.

The commercially developable, technically

recoverable resources associated with the three

probability cases (5 percent, mean, 95 percent)

that can be recovered at a given price are

calculated based on a 12 percent rate of return.

Figure 8 shows percentages of the technically

recoverable oil that can be commercially

developed at given oil prices.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Years After Start of D evelopment 

Mbbls/day

5% Proba bility (800

M M bbls/yr.)

M e a n (600 M M bbls/yr.)

95% P roba bility (400

M M bbls/yr.)
Energy Information Administration

Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

13

Figure 8. Technically Recoverable and Commercially Developable Oil at 95 Percent,

Mean, and 5 Percent Probabilities for Given Oil Prices as a Percentage of

Technically Recoverable Oil for the ANWR 1002 Area of the Alaska North

Slope.

Source: United States Geological Survey, “Economics of Undiscovered Oil in the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,”

1998.

The USGS economic analysis of the ANWR

1002 Area calculates that once oil has been

discovered, more than 80 percent of the

technically recoverable oil is commercially

developable at an oil price of $25 per barrel. In

general, it is assumed that production from

Alaska (including ANWR) would reduce oil

imports by an equal amount. The imported

refiner acquisition cost in 2020 is projected in

EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2000 reference

case to be $22.04 (1998 dollars). At this price,

the potential ANWR oil recovered would have a

value between $125 and $350 billion (in 1998

dollars.)

0

20

40

60

80

100

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Oil Price ($/Bbl)

Percent of Technically Recoverable 

that is Commercially Developable 

5% Probability 

Mean

95% Probability
Energy Information Administration

Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

14

3. Summary

The 1.5 million-acre coastal plain of the 19

million-acre Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is

the largest unexplored, potentially productive

geologic onshore basin in the United States. The

primary area of the coastal plain is the 1002

Area of ANWR established when ANWR was

created. A decision on permitting the

exploration and development of the 1002 Area is

up to Congress and has not been approved to

date. Also included in the Coastal Plain are

State lands to the 3-mile offshore limit and

Native Inupiat land near the village of Kaktovik.

The USGS estimated:

! a 95 percent probability that at least 5.7

billion barrels of technically recoverable

undiscovered oil are in the ANWR coastal

plain,

! a 5 percent probability that at least 16 billion

barrels of technically recoverable

undiscovered oil are in the ANWR coastal

plain, and

! a mean or expected value of 10.3 billion

barrels of technically recoverable

undiscovered oil in the ANWR coastal

plain.

EIA postulates two development rates for each

of the three USPS probability estimates without

specifying the effect of various levels of oil

prices and technology advancements, ranging

from 250 to 800 million barrels developed per

year. EIA projects peak production rates from

600,000 to 1.9 million barrels per day over the

six cases, with peak production estimated to

occur 20 - 30 years after the onset of production.

Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required

from an approval to explore and develop to first

production from the ANWR Area. This study

uses 9 years, to 2010. The time to first

production could vary significantly based on

time required for leasing after approval to

develop is given. Environmental considerations

and the possibility of drilling restrictions would

directly impact the time interval to reach first

production.

The USGS economic analysis of the ANWR

1002 Area calculates that once oil has been

discovered, more than 80 percent of the

technically recoverable oil is commercially

developable at an oil price of $25 per barrel.

The imported refiner acquisition cost in 2020 is

projected in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2000

reference case at $22.04 (1998 dollars). At this

price, the potential ANWR oil recovered would

have a value between $125 and $350 billion (in

1998 dollars.)
Energy Information Administration

Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

15

Glossary

ANILCA: Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act

ANS: Alaskan North Slope

ANWR: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

BBbls: billion barrels

Bbls: barrels

Daily Petroleum Production Rate: The amount of petroleum extracted per day from a well, group of

wells, region, etc. (usually expressed in barrels per day)

EIA: Energy Information Administration

MBbls: thousand barrels

MMBbls: million barrels

NPR-A: National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska

Petroleum Play: A set of known or postulated petroleum accumulations sharing similar geologic,

geographic, and temporal properties such as source rock, migration, pathway, timing,

trapping mechanism, and hydrocarbon type

TAPS: Trans-Alaska Pipeline System

Technically Recoverable Resources: Resources in accumulations producible using current recovery

technology but without reference to economic profitability generally conceived as

existing in accumulations of sufficient size to be amenable to the application of existing

recovery technology (usually expressed in barrels, for oil)

USGS: United States Geological Survey

Yearly Petroleum Development Rate: The amount of petroleum potentially made available through the

drilling of wells and installation of infrastructure in a region in a year (usually expressed

in barrels per year)
Energy Information Administration

Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment

16

References

Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000)

(Washington, DC, December 1999), Table A11.

Energy Information Administration, Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, SR/RNGD/87-01 (Washington, DC, September 1987).

U.S. Department of Interior, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, Coastal Plain Resource

Assessment, (Washington, DC, November, 1986).

U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Minerals Management Service.

Northeast National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska Final Integrated Activity Plan / Environmental Impact

Statement, (Anchorage , Alaska, August, 1998).

U.S. Department of Interior, U.S. Geological Survey. Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002

Area, Petroleum Assessment, 1998, USGS Fact Sheet FS-040-98, (Washington, DC, May 1998).

U.S. Geological Survey, Economics of Undiscovered Oil in the 1002 Area of the Arctic National

Wildlife Refuge,(Washington, DC, 1998).

U.S. Geological Survey, The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife

Refuge 1002 Area, Alaska, Open File Report 98-34 (Washington, DC, 1999).