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|   EnergyPower Plan4th Power Plan  Response to comments: Fourth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan     and Addendum
**July 1, 1998 **|**  document 98-24**

The amendment process for the Northwest Conservation and Electric Power     Plan took place in two phases. In 1996, the Council issued a Draft Fourth     Power Plan and took public comment through March 14, 1997. Recognizing that     many of the issues considered in a power plan would be taken up in the     course of the Comprehensive Review of the Northwest's Energy System, a     process called for by the four Northwest Governors in December 1995, the     Council deferred adoption of a final plan until after the review was     completed. In light of the recommendations of the Comprehensive Review, the     Council issued an Addendum to the Draft Fourth Plan and took public comment     from August 22, 1997 through October 31, 1997. Taken together, the Draft     Fourth Plan, now adopted as final, and the Addendum constitute the Council's     Power Plan. The Addendum complements and extends the Draft Fourth Plan.     However, in those instances in which the Addendum updates data and     information found in the Draft Fourth Plan, the Addendum supercedes those     portions of the Draft Fourth Plan. This Response to Comments summarizes     public comment received on the Draft Fourth Plan and on the Addendum

**AMENDMENT PROCESS**

**Comment:** It was appropriate for the Council to hold the draft plan     open for comment while the region began to engage the issues raised by     deregulation and dramatically changed institutional roles. (BPA) The plan     will be useful as a "reference tool" in this time of evolving structures in     the industry. (Eigabroadt) 

**Response:**The Council recognizes that as the utility industry is     restructured, its role is likely to undergo significant change and the     function of the power plan will also change. The Comprehensive Review began     after the Council had already begun the plan amendment process. The draft     plan was designed to provide information in support of the Comprehensive     Review as well as fulfill the responsibility of the Council to review its     plan on a periodic basis. Because the review was addressing many of the same     issues the Council deals with in the plan, it seemed practical to postpone     adoption of the plan until the review had completed its work. 

**Comment:**Treating the Draft Fourth Plan and the Addendum, taken     together, as the plan is confusing. The former differs from Comprehensive     Review recommendations and the latter references the former. Revise the     Addendum and call it the plan. Be clear about whether the Council endorses     the Comprehensive Review recommendations. (RNP) 

**Response:** The Council decided to conduct this amendment process in     two stages. The Draft Fourth Plan was issued pursuant to the five-year time     requirement of the Northwest Power Act. When the four Northwest governors     initiated the Comprehensive Review, the Council decided to wait until the     review was complete to conclude the amendment process. 

The Final Report of the Comprehensive Review is not the Council's plan.     In many respects, the Comprehensive Review built on the analysis and     identification of issues provided in the Draft Plan. The Review also raised     a number of issues that are addressed in the Addendum, with the intent of     assisting successful implementation of those recommendations. But the Fourth     Power Plan and its Addendum, as revised on the basis of public comment,     constitute the Council's plan. 

The Council acknowledges that there is some disagreement between the     Draft Plan and the conclusions of the Comprehensive Review. For example, the     Draft Plan did not find economic value in the early development of     renewables, but the Comprehensive Review concluded that the region should     maintain development at some level. In response, the Addendum outlined some     important principles that should be followed if the region is going to     pursue renewables now. 

**Comment:**The plan should recognize that the tribes are legitimate     participants in regional power planning: along with federal agencies and the     states, the tribes co-manage natural resources in the Columbia River Basin.     The Comprehensive Review was weighted too heavily toward the electric     industry to serve as a proper basis for amending the plan. The tribes, in     particular, were excluded. The results of the Comprehensive Review do not     enjoy region-wide support. Defer adoption of the plan. The Three Sovereigns     governance process may result in a unified approach to making decisions on a     broad array of issues related to the operation of the Columbia River system.     (Spokane) 

**Response:** The Council has taken seriously the comments of all     interested parties in its planning process. In particular, it has given     serious consideration to the comments of tribal interests. The Comprehensive     Review is not the basis for the Council's amendment of the plan. The Draft     Plan and Addendum and public comment on both those documents form the basis     for the Council's final plan. They take into account the Comprehensive     Review and the recommendations of that process. There have been several     other regional processes in play during the plan amendment process,     including the Three Sovereigns governance process. While the Council has     given its support to the ongoing Three Sovereigns process, that process     would not satisfy the statutory requirements the Council observes in     amending the plan. 

**ENERGY EFFICIENCY**

**Comment:**Conservation is an important part of preserving,     enhancing and allocating the electric power assets of the Columbia Basin for     the region. Market forces should be used whenever possible to achieve the     region's goals for developing conservation, as the Comprehensive Review     said. The private sector can be expected to develop more and more     conservation. Bonneville is supporting this move through its Energy     Efficiency group. (BPA) 

**Response:**The Council agrees with the importance of conservation     for the region. It also supports the use of market forces to acquire this     resource whenever possible. For example, the Council has supported the     creation and operation of the Energy Efficiency Alliance to promote market     transformation. The thrust of much of the plan is to suggest ways in which     conservation can be developed consistent with a market environment. 

**Comment:**The Council's model overstates likely savings to be     expected from conservation. Even if regional intervention occurs, the bulk     of the benefit lies between 25 and 50 years out, increasing significantly     the risk of ever achieving the savings. Regional policy makers should keep     these characteristics of the modeling in mind. (BPA) Conservation savings     are subject to "take back." A more efficient lightbulb may be left burning     longer than its less efficient predecessor. Consumers may spend more time     under a "miser" showerhead. (Eigabroadt) 

**Response:**The plan is clear regarding the short- and long-term     characteristics of conservation savings and costs and the attendant     uncertainties. The estimates are the best available and take into account     relevant experience with the implementation and performance of conservation     technologies.

**Comment:**The Draft Fourth Plan and Addendum fail to recommend     funding for clean energy resources, conservation and renewables. NCAC's     Blueprint is a better plan for the region's future. (Kline, Owchar, Dollfe,     Hennum and others) 

**Response:**The Council believes it has fulfilled it statutory     mandate in planning for cost-effective conservation and renewables, clean     energy resources, in an environment in which centralized planning for     resource acquisition will be increasingly displaced by market forces. The     Council has identified that cost-effective conservation that should be     acquired, when and if Bonneville is called upon to increase its resource     base. It has also suggested ways for successful utility involvement in     conservation acquisition. It has also outlined those activities it believes     are most appropriate if the region chooses to pursue the limited development     of renewable resources outlined in the Comprehensive Review. 

**Comment:**The region should evaluate all the expenditures     Bonneville has made, based on the Council's power plan, in conservation. An     independent audit of the costs and results of these programs should precede     any recommendation to use a systems benefit charge to fund cost-effective,     but not necessarily market-driven, conservation. (Steinborn) 

**Response:** The Council believes it has, in fact, monitored and     evaluated expenditures for conservation in the region. The Council has used     these evaluations in refining its estimates of cost-effective conservation     and in designing new programs. See, for example, "Conservation Performance:     Reviewing the Past and Refining the Future," Briefing Paper 94-31, August     1994. When programs have been found not to be cost-effective, they have been     revised or eliminated. 

**PUBLIC PURPOSES FUNDING**

**Comment:**The playing field must be leveled if public purposes     funding is to succeed. BPA has, in the past, urged commitments through a     voluntary system. State-level mandatory collection has not met with great     success, although Montana did adopt a wires charge for public purpose     funding. (BPA) The federal government should fund conservation, renewables     and low income, as well as salmon restoration. (Brunsdon) 

**Response:**The plan addresses ways in which funding for public     purposes can be pursued on a "level playing field." The recommendations of     the Comprehensive Review represent a comprehensive approach to funding     public purposes. The Addendum suggests ways in which implementation of those     recommendations can be most effective.

**Comment:**Focus on mechanisms to achieve energy efficiency,     renewable energy and low-income services. The Comprehensive Review opted for     an investment-based standard. While a certain minimum investment is no doubt     necessary, outlay in and of itself is not the point. Achieving the goals is.     (CTED) Seek a federal back-up for public purpose investment, to the extent     the Comprehensive Review's public purpose recommendations are not otherwise     being implemented. (CTED)

**Response:**The Council agrees that achieving energy efficiency is     the proper measure of success for conservation expenditures. For this     reason, the Council has focused on measurement of savings in designing     conservation programs. As noted in the Addendum, the Council believes there     is an on-going need for measurement and evaluation to ensure accountability     and a level playing field. The Council will continue to monitor the region's     success in meeting the public purposes served by the federal system. If the     Comprehensive Review's recommendations are not carried out, the Council will     work with the region to seek appropriate remedies. 

**MARKET TRANSFORMATION**

**Comment:**BPA has committed to funding market transformation     through the Energy Efficiency Alliance for the five-year rate period. The     companion IOU funding is only secure through 1999. Encourage state     legislation to establish public purpose funding. (BPA)

**Response:**As the opportunity presents itself, the Council will     assist in securing funding for the public purposes supported by the     Comprehensive Review. The Council itself has contributed significantly to     the initiation of the Energy Efficiency Alliance and will continue to do so     for at least the five-year rate period. 

**STRANDED COSTS AND BENEFITS**

**Comment:** The Addendum makes an important contribution in noting     that stranded costs and windfall profits are two sides of a single coin. For     the Northwest, ensuring that consumers retain the benefits of below-market     resources for which they have paid is a considerable challenge. The final     plan should explore further what actions states can take to improve the     prospects for securing the benefits of the federal system for all Northwest     consumers. (CTED) 

**Response**: There are numerous legislative initiatives currently     under consideration and the Council is actively engaged in regional     discussions of those various proposals. Outlining political steps for     securing the benefits of the federal system is not, however, an appropriate     subject for the power plan. 

**RENEWABLE RESOURCES**

**Comment:**The recommendation for a regional non-profit entity to     direct renewable RD&D may be hard to implement, given the distinction     between what the market may accomplish and what public funding might     support. The states will have to make this decision. (BPA) 

**Response:** The Addendum notes that such an entity is called for by     the Comprehensive Review. It is also clear that state action will be needed     to support such an activity. 

**Comment:**Funding for renewables should be cut. We have little to     show for 30 years' effort and a considerable amount of money spent. There is     plenty of gas and oil. (Brunsdon) 

**Response:** The Council follows the availability of gas and oil     closely and has recognized that over time more low-cost gas has proven to be     available than expected. Nevertheless, some expenditure for data collection     regarding renewables is justified as an insurance policy for the region, in     case political events or the imposition of more stringent environmental     controls should alter the cost of using fossil fuels. The Comprehenisve     Review went a step further to recommend limited development to begin to     transform the market for renewables. 

**Comment:**The nation is committed to reducing greenhouse gas     emissions and has established targets for the year 2010. Renewables are one     part of the equation that will help the country reach those targets.     Actively support renewables to help the nation reach its targets. The     Council should do an in-depth analysis of the combined effects of     uncertainties associated with global climate change. (RNP) 

Renewables help protect against future uncertain dramatic events,     including long-term global climate change and or a rapid increase in the     costs of fossil fuel and their associated costs. Do not wait until the     science surrounding this issue is more certain, as many urge. Do not fail to     endorse local actions on the ground that only a global agreement can make a     difference. (RNP) There is growing public pressure being placed on polluting     resources. The costs of reducing pollution cannot be ignored. (Eigabroadt)     Solar and wind are unreliable and far from cost-effective resources.     Nuclear, while politically unpalatable in this country, is the resource that     would best improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (Eigabroadt)    

Do four things: (1) say explicitly that future risks justify investment     today in renewables; (2) educate the region about these risks; (3) develop     an approach to track development related to climate change; and (4) work     with others to develop a method for measuring and verifying CO2 emission     reductions. (RNP) 

**Response:** As noted, the Council recognizes the value of renewable     resources. Nevertheless, in selecting resources for acquisition, the Power     Act establishes cost-effectiveness and availability tests that make many     renewables currently more expensive than alternatives. The Comprehensive     Review was not limited by these tests and believed continued limited     development to be of value. This is a legitimate decision for the Review to     make. In light of that decision, the Addendum suggests certain guidelines     for research, development and demonstration in the area of renewables. The     Draft Plan did undertake an uncertainty analysis regarding the risks of     global climate change and the value of renewable development under such     risks. The Council will continue to monitor developments in this area and     revise its analyses as appropriate. 

**Comment:**Strategic solar photovoltaic generation would be more     cost-effective than the conservation called for in the Council's draft.     (Canada)

**Response:**The Draft Plan identified 1,535 megawatts of     conservation as potentially cost-effective. The levelized cost of this     conservation resource was estimated to range from less than 0.4 to 3.0 cents     per kilowatt-hour. In contrast, the cost of electricity from central-station     photovoltaics was estimated to be about 16 cents per kilowatt-hour for     plants entering service between 2000 and 2005. Furthermore, the solar     product would likely be of lesser value than the conservation energy savings     because of the diurnal and intermittent nature of the solar resource and     because the solar output would not correlate with regional winter peak     loads. For these reasons, electricity from central station solar     photovoltaic sources in the region is not considered to be cost-effective at     present.

The Council continues to monitor photovoltaic technology developments and     has observed that the cost of photovoltaic installations has declined     somewhat more rapidly than projected in the Draft Plan. The observed rate of     decline is about 11 percent annually, as compared to the forecasted 8     percent. But even at this accelerated rate of cost reduction, it is unlikely     that electricity from photovoltaic sources will be competitive with the     identified cost-effective conservation within the near-future Comment:     Geothermal should not be classed as a renewable, if the experience at The     Geysers in California is any indicator. (Eigabroadt) 

**Response:**Geothermal is defined as a renewable resource in Section     3.(16) of the Regional Power Act. Some geothermal structures may be     thermally isolated from sustaining sources of heat, and therefore     non-renewable in the long-term. However, with proper development, it is     likely that some level of energy production can be sustained indefinitely at     geothermal structures where there is sustained abnormally high transfer of     energy from the earth's mantle. The capacity of The Geysers has declined     because of over-development and inadequate water recharge. Capacity has been     retired and efforts are underway to replenish The Geysers reservoir with     water piped in from elsewhere. The long-term success of that effort and the     resulting sustainable level of development are not known at this time.

**RENEWABLE RESOURCE DATA COLLECTION**

**Comment:**Some of the annual funding collected for renewables     should support stable funding for regional solar and wind data collection.     Identify a mechanism for implementing programs to collect such data. (BPA)     Adopt a plan for tracking developments related to global climate disruption;     new information could make us rethink our renewables development strategy. (RNP)    

**Response:**The plan supports data collection. In addition, the     Council actively follows developments in global climate change. 

**REGIONAL TECHNICAL FORUM**

**Comment:**States and local utilities should support the creation     and operation of a regional technical forum to track progress on both     conservation and renewables, to ensure accountability and to provide     feedback that may serve to improve the effectiveness of both these efforts.     (BPA)

Congress called for the formation of such a body two years ago. Get this     show on the road. Objective verification of achievements in efficiency,     renewables, and low-income services is essential to consumers and utilities     alike, so that all know that their investments are well-managed and     producing results. If a cooperative approach doesn't work, explore other     ways to administer public purpose funds that provide greater accountability.     (CTED) 

**Response:**The formation of a Regional Technical Forum is addressed     in the Addendum and the Council has begun work which could lead to the     formation of such an entity.

**ECONOMIC THEORY**

**Comment:**The plan's use of economic models of competition is in     error. This is most obvious in the discussion of marginal cost pricing.     "Price equal to marginal cost" is not unique to competitive markets. While     it does result in an efficient allocation of resources, it could result as     well from a monopolistic market in which sellers exercise perfect price     discrimination. Nor is it a suitable basis for determining prices in     real-world markets. Applying the results of the competitive model to the     electric market emerging in the region is an added problem; it fails to     recognize actual conditions. Greater competition is unlikely to be the     end-state of restructuring. A few large firms with market power are likely     to dominate. The balance of the industry will be crowded with inefficient     firms charging captive customers high prices. The real world for which we     must plan must account for the fact that our region has market imperfections     such as significant market power concentrated in the hands of a few, mutual     interdependence, pervasive uncertainty, and a lack of information. (Spokane)

**Response:**It was not the plan's intent to champion unfettered     competition. What the plan noted was that competition can yield benefits,     but only if a number of important considerations are dealt with in the     process of moving from a regulated structure to competition. Deregulation in     and of itself does not necessarily result in a competitive marketplace. The     plan lays out the conditions necessary for fair and effective competition.     It also notes that certain societal goods that have historically been     provided by the power system, things like public purpose funding, low income     services and so on, will have to be supplied in different ways in a     competitive market. The recommendations of the Comprehensive Review and the     supporting analysis in the Addendum are aimed at addressing those issues.    

**ROLE OF THE COUNCIL**

**Comment:**Deregulation has changed the role of the Council. BPA     supports the Council's staffing the Transition Board in implementing the     recommendations of the Comprehensive Review. The plan should not include     recommendations regarding the federal transmission system. If the Council is     to continue to monitor and assess BPA's market role after the work of the     Transition Board is completed, a mandate should come from the region and     Congress. (BPA) 

**Response:** The plan didn't make recommendations regarding federal     transmission, but did discuss several of the alternatives, from separation     of Bonneville's marketing and transmission functions to participation in its     participation in an IGO. It was the Comprehensive Review that made     recommendations regarding Bonneville's transmission. 

**Comment:**Trying to guide the evolution of market structure in the     region is beyond the Council's statutory mandate. The Council should give     priority to its existing statutory mandates. (Spokane) 

**Comment:**The Council plays an important role in providing     consumers with information regarding the attributes of their electricity     suppliers and their products. (CTED) If the industry does not move to full     competition, but instead relies on regulated utilities to provide power, the     Council's traditional cost-effectiveness analysis will remain relevant for     resource acquisition. Even though BPA is no longer acquiring resources for     the region, many utilities will. The Council's objective resource analysis     will continue to serve as a critical reference point for Washington's     utilities, public interest groups, and policy-makers. This objective     analysis will be a useful reference point even in a full retail choice     model. (CTED) 

**Response:**The Council has been given a special mandate by the     Northwest Governors through the Transition Board to undertake the analysis     and public processes that will support the implementation of the     Comprehensive Review's recommendations. This transitional role of the     Council in offering independent information and analysis is important     regardless of how far the industry does down the road to restructuring. 

**Comment:**Regardless of the future structure of the industry, the     Council's evaluation of conservation and renewables serves as a valuable     benchmark for legislators, state agencies, customers, and industry     associations in evaluating public purpose expenditures and accomplishments.     (CTED) 

**Comment:**Public trust in restructuring depends on knowing that all     are sharing the costs and benefits of the system and that the system is     meeting its public policy goals. Tracking data during the transition to a     restructured market can contribute to developing that trust. Important data     include the average costs of energy services paid by different classes of     consumers and aggregate information on trends in energy consumption. (CTED)     The Council's abilities in producing "reference tools" for the region will     be of service even in a deregulated environment. (Eigabroadt) 

**Response:**The Council has certain analytical abilities that have     benefited the region in a variety of ways. These abilities may help the     region in the transition from a regulated energy industry to a more     market-driven model. The plan, however, is not the appropriate place, the     Council believes, to take a position on its future role. As noted above,     there are a number of legislative initiatives currently under consideration.     It is most likely that the Council's future role will be debated and     determined as new legislation is considered. The Council will offer input,     based on its usual practice of public review of the issues. 

**APPENDIX A**

**Comment:**Add geothermal to the list of promising resources: it     costs less than solar thermal or photovoltaics, although more than wind.     (BPA) 

**Response:**Current cost was not the sole basis for choosing     resources as "promising" in Appendix A. Other factors included prospective     availability to the Northwest, applicability to Northwest conditions,     prospective cost reduction, and environmental and general public     acceptability. The Council believes that some geothermal resources are     available for development within the geographic boundaries of the Northwest,     and a significant geothermal resource may be present at Glass Mountain.     However, because of resource quality and environmental objections, there has     been a lack of success in confirming or developing prospective Northwest     geothermal resources to date. Furthermore, several researchers argue     convincingly that Cascade geothermal resources are likely to be much less     extensive than thought at one time. Finally, geothermal costs are high, and     do not appear to have the cost reduction potential of other renewable     resources. For these reasons, geothermal does not appear to be among the     most promising renewable resources for large-scale, low-cost development in     the longer-term. Confirmation of a large-scale (hundreds of megawatts)     resource at Glass Mountain could alter this perception. 

**LIST OF COMMENTORS**

**BPA** Bonneville Power Administration **Eigabroadt**Earl E. Eigabroadt**RNP**Renewable Northwest Project **Spokane**Spokane Tribe of Indians**Kline**Adam Kline **Owchar**Ann Owchar**Dollfe** Muriel Dollfe **Hennum**Karl Hennum**Steinborn**Sydney Steinborn **Brunsdon**Harry L. Brunsdon **CTED**Washington State Department of Community, Trade and Economic     Development **Canada**Mr. Alfred Canada

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