FEWS NET Zimbabwe

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the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States 

Government

ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

A later than usual lean season and continued Minimal food insecurity outcomes expected

KEY MESSAGES

 The food security situation across the country is 

stable with most households accessing staple food 

from their own 2013/14 production. Minimal (IPC 

Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes are 

projected from October 2014 through March 2015 

as households continue accessing staple food from 

their own production and through market 

purchases. 

 Typically the lean season starts in October, but this 

year it will likely begin in December because staple 

prices have remained largely stable due to low 

demand. Households continue to consume stocks 

from last season’s own production, which is 

expected to be sufficient through March. 

 Most households across the country are currently 

engaged in land preparation, however agriculture 

inputs remain scarce in the majority of local shops

in rural areas.

NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Current Situation

 The food security situation in the country remains stable and most households, including very poor households in the 

traditionally production deficit areas in the southwestern parts of the country, are still consuming cereals from their own 

2013/14 production. Acute food insecurity is currently Minimal (IPC Phase 1) across all wealth groups in the country.

 Market demand for cereals has remained relatively low due to consistent supplies at the household level. This reduced 

demand has resulted in a 23 and 16 percent decrease in the national average maize grain price, when compared to the 

same time last year and two-year average, respectively. In comparison to the five-year average, prices for both maize 

meal and maize grain continue to be stable. Unlike in previous years when significant increases were reported during the 

month of October, maize meal prices this year are stable in comparison to the same time last year and two-year average.

 In order to offset current budget deficits, The Zimbabwe Ministry of Finance introduced an increase in the excise duty on 

fuel, which will increase petrol from 30 cents per liter to 35 cents and diesel from 25 cents to 30 cents per liter. These 

slight petrol and diesel price increases are approximately 4 percent higher and are not expected to significantly impact 

cereal prices. 

Current food security outcomes, October 2014.

Source: FEWS NET

This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency 

decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit here for 

more on this scale.
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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 Households are currently earning income through typical self-employment and casual labor activities including 

construction, vegetable sales, and petty trading. 

Since most parts of the country received light 

showers during the first week of October, land 

preparation opportunities have also increased and

payment for casual labor activities is mainly in-kind

since households hiring labor have surplus cereals 

from the 2013/14 harvest. 

 Preparation for the 2014/15 agriculture season is in 

progress but agriculture inputs, especially seed and 

fertilizers, are mainly available in urban shops across 

the country with limited availability in rural areas. 

Most rural farmers are relying on government 

distributions of agriculture inputs and supplies, 

though the exact quantities are not yet known.

 Livestock conditions are reported to be good in most 

of the areas in the country including the south 

western dry areas due to improved pasture 

conditions and adequate water supplies. However 

there are reports of an outbreak in foot and mouth 

disease in the southern areas of the country 

including in Mwenezi, Chivi, Masvingo, Zaka, and 

Chiredzi districts. Discussions with communities in 

these areas indicates that the foot and mouth 

outbreak could potentially affect household income 

levels that are usually earned through livestock 

sales. 

 The Government is supporting approximately 10 –

20 percent of vulnerable and labor constrained 

households through the harmonized social cash

transfer program by targeting 21 districts and 

providing households with USD $15 –25 per month. 

Other safety-net programs are being implemented 

with support from the United Nations World Food 

Program (WFP) through the Conditional Lean Season 

assistance program that is targeting only seven 

districts from the planned 20 due to serious funding 

shortfalls. 

 Contributions from the various available safety-net

programs will cover most of the food requirements 

for the 564,500 people identified by the ZIMVAC as 

projected to be food insecure during peak lean 

season, January-March 2015.

Assumptions

The October to March food security outlook report is informed by the following national and sub-national assumptions: 

Projected food security outcomes, October to December 2014.

 

 Source: FEWS NET

Projected food security outcomes, January to March 2015.

Source: FEWS NET

This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency 

decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit here for 

more on this scale.
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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 Cereal availability: Most households, including the very poor in the southern cereal deficit areas, are expected to access 

cereals from their own production from October-December. However, selected households in the southwestern areas 

will start to supplement these food stocks with market purchases. While most households in the northern and central 

parts of country will continue consuming cereals from own production, households in the southern areas will begin to 

increasingly rely on market purchases from January-March.

 Staple food prices and market performance: Markets including those in southern cereal deficit areas are expected to 

have adequate supplies of maize grain and maize meal with limited supplies of small grains. However from JanuaryMarch, maize grain supplies in the southern areas will be mainly sourced from distant primary markets including Gokwe, 

Gutu, and Lusulu. Based on the FEWS-NET’s price projections using both fundamental and technical analysis, average 

national maize grain prices for the scenario period are projected to be 10 percent below last year’s prices and stable 

when compared to the two-year average. The decrease and stability in maize grain prices is due to the increase in market 

supplies in the central and northern parts of the country and lower demand among most households currently consuming 

cereals. However, these prices are projected to be 18 percent above the five-year average prices. Maize meal prices are

likely to remain stable during the scenario period when compared to the two year and last year prices, mainly due to low 

demand as maize grain which the cheaper and most preferred product by rural households will be sufficiently available 

on the market. 

 Season rainfall forecast: According to the National Climate Outlook Forum (NACOF), the country will receive normal to 

above normal rains from October-November and there are increased chances of normal to below normal rains in the 

south and western parts of the country from December-March. The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook released 

a similar forecast for the October-December period, but the SARCOF indicates that normal to above rains are expected 

during the January-March period. Based on the more accurate national outlook, the below normal rains from JanuaryMarch will likely result in the early end of the 2014-15 agriculture season, particularly in the southwestern areas in the 

country. 

 Agriculture and other labor availability and rates: The likely availability of agriculture inputs through the government 

support scheme and the expected normal to above rains during the first half of the scenario period (October-December) 

will likely result in an increase in agriculture-based casual labor activities, particularly in the eastern and northern parts 

of the county where the area planted is expected to increase during the 2014-15 season. Incomes for the poor holds 

through agriculture labor are projected to increase by 10 – 20 percent during the October to December period and most 

of the casual activities are expected to be paid in-kind. From January through March, on-farm casual labor activities are 

likely to decrease in the southern and western parts of the country where the national forecast is calling for normal to 

below normal rainfall. Likely projected El Niño conditions increases the chances of low rainfall and an early end to the 

season, which could reduce agriculture labor opportunities and incomes. 

 Livestock: Livestock conditions are expected to be good between October and March as the projected normal to above 

normal rains will likely result in improved pasture conditions and availability of water. However the projected normal to 

below normal rains during the January-March period could result in a slight reduction in pasture and water sources in 

the southwestern areas but are not expected to significantly affect livestock conditions. Incomes from livestock sales are

projected to increase during the outlook period as livestock prices are expected to remain above reference year prices. 

 Social-Safety Nets: The Government harmonized cash transfer support to labor constrained, food insecure and 

vulnerable households will continue targeting about 10-20 percent of the population in each of the 21 targeted districts. 

Selected households in Masvingo, Manicaland, and Matabeleland North, and South provinces will also benefit from the 

food components under the USAID funded Development Food Assistance Program implemented through the Amalima 

and ENSURE projects. The World Food Program will also support the vulnerable households through the Conditional Lean 

Season Assistance (LSA) that will offset food gaps in some of the affected areas, but coverage will be below the usual 

250,000 beneficiaries. 
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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 Vegetable production: Vegetable production and incomes from vegetable sales will likely decrease in November as 

households become fully engaged in on-farm activities. 

 Green Harvest: Despite the forecast for increased chances of normal to below normal rains in southwestern areas, most 

households across the country are expected to 

have a normal start of the green harvest from 

mid-February through March. This normal 

start of the green harvest is expected to 

improve poor household food consumption 

and reduce their reliance on market purchases.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Households are likely to experience Minimal (IPC 

Phase 1) food security outcomes from OctoberDecember as most households will consume 

cereals from own production. These conditions are 

expected to continue from January-March, 

although very poor households in the southern 

deficit areas will increase reliance on market 

purchases to supplement own production. Very 

poor households in the southwestern areas will 

access incomes for cereal purchases through casual 

labor activities. The normal start of the green 

consumption will provide an alternative source of 

food for households with early food gaps. 

Most of the very poor households will likely access incomes for cereal purchases and other livelihood needs through typical 

casual labor activities that are comprised mainly of land preparation and planting during the beginning of the season in 

October and weeding from November-March. Most of the households that will experience food gaps will likely opt for in-kind 

payments for the both agriculture and non-agriculture casual labor activities. Availability of non-agriculture casual labor

activities including construction work, will follow seasonal trends and will likely decrease in November when rains are 

expected to increase and households begin engaging in farming activities. 

AREAS OF CONCERN

Kariba Valley Kariyangwe Jambezi Communal Livelihood zone (KVKJC) covering Matabeleland North and 

Mashonaland West Provinces (Binga, Hwange and Kariba districts)

Current Situation

 The food security situation is stable with the majority of very poor households accessing staple from own production. 

The Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security situation is mainly due to increased cereal production during the 2013-14 

agriculture seasons. Cereal production in this zone was about 27 percent above the five-year average. 

 Staple prices have also been stable due to sufficient supplies of both maize gran and small grains. Average national maize 

grain prices are currently averaging USD$0.33/kg and are still 18 percent higher than reference year but have decreased 

by 14 and 7 percent in comparison same time last year and two year average, respectively.

Figure 1. Livelihood zone of concern.

 Source: FEWS NET
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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 Availability of non-farm and self-employment activities including construction, brick molding, and sale of crafts, land 

preparation, fish trade, and vegetable sales are the same as reference year but rates and prices have increased by 10-15 

percent.

 Casual labor opportunities are the same as normal but payments are mainly through in-kind since most households 

providing such opportunities have surplus grain from recent 2013-14 main season. 

 Livestock conditions range from good to fair due to sufficient pasture and water sources as a result of good rainfall last 

season. Cattle and goat prices average $450 and $30 per head and have increased by 67 and 100 percent, respectively. 

Household sales of goats and chickens are mainly for other livelihoods needs and not for staple food purchases.

 The government social safety-nets (cash transfers) targeting the most vulnerable individuals, especially elderly and 

orphan headed households, are ongoing in Binga and Kariba district, covering nearly 10 percent of the households in 

these areas.

Assumptions

In addition to the national assumptions described above, the following assumptions have been made about KVKJC

livelihood zone: 

 Staple food prices are expected to follow seasonal trends, increasing during the lean season from November-March as 

some households increase reliance on market purchases after depleting stocks from own production. Both maize grain 

and maize meal prices will be within 15 percent above the five-year average. Green harvests will likely to be available 

between the late February and March. The availability of green foods will reduce household reliance on market 

purchases thereby contributing to a slight decrease in maize grain prices in March. 

 Households that run out of their own food stocks during the scenario period (October-March) will likely pursue on-farm 

casual labor opportunities from October through December. Additional incomes will also likely come through small 

livestock sales which are likely to increase from November-December which is typical during the lean season when 

households start to raise cash income to supplement food with market purchases. The HEA outcome analysis indicates 

that incomes from livestock sales will increase during the scenario period because prices are 67 and 100 percent above 

the reference year prices for cattle and goats, and 25 percent above the reference year price for chicken.

 Agricultural activities including land preparation, planting, and weeding will likely be normal following predictions of 

normal to above normal rainfall for the October to December period by both the SARCOF and National Climate Outlook 

Forum (NACOF). However based on NACOF, normal to below normal rains are predicted for the January through 

March period.

 Social safety-net /social transfer programming by the Government and WFP will continue as normal during the entire 

scenario period, including inputs support to farmers during the 2014-15 agriculture season through the agriculture 

input scheme. 

 Remittances will continue to provide significant levels of incomes for cereal purchases and other livelihoods needs 

throughout the scenario period, but will reduce by 20 percent from the reference year due to tightening economic 

conditions in South Africa (where most of family members who remit cash to their relatives normally work). 

 The sale of crafts through tourism will provide additional incomes from October through November however income 

from these sells is expected to reduce by 20 percent due to a general decline in tourists visiting the sites in the zone

due to general deterioration of tourism facilities.
ZIMBABWE Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

From October-December most households, including the very poor, will access cereals through own production and will begin 

supplementing this with market purchases from December onwards. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes 

will be experienced from October-December and these outcomes are expected to continue from January-March. As typical 

during the peak lean season, poor household reliance on market purchases will likely increase during the January-March 

period. Incomes for cereal purchases by households facing cereal deficits will likely to come mainly through agriculture 

related casual labor, which is likely to increase along with the increased chances of normal to above-normal rains during the 

October-December period. The expected normal start of green consumption from end of February through March will likely 

provide additional sources for food for very poor households across the livelihood zone and will reduce their reliance on 

market purchases.

Safety-net programming such as the Government harmonized cash-transfer program, WFP’s Conditional Lean Season 

Assistance (LSA) and support from Save the Children will help in to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes, 

especially during the peak lean season.

EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, 

and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes those assumptions in the context of current conditions and local 

livelihoods to develop scenarios estimating food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. Click here for 

more information.

Area Event Impact on food security outcomes

KVKJC zone Restrictions in the import of 

maize meal and grain from 

neighboring countries

May result in an increase in cereal prices by private traders; 

particularly in distant markets located in cereal deficit areas.

Southeastern

parts of the 

country

Increase in chances of an El 

Niño

These conditions will likely result in late start of the season and dry 

spells which will affect production as well as agriculture labor in the 

livelihood zone from October through March.

Entire country Global increase in fuel prices Current instability/conflict in the Middle East may likely result in 

global fuel price increases including Zimbabwe which could trigger 

price increases for basic commodities including staple food.

Southwestern 

parts of the 

country

Increase in import duty on 

food commodities

Could result in increases in staple food prices especially southwestern 

parts of country during the January-March period.