CHAPTER 12. LIFE­CYCLE COST SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

12.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 12­1
 

12.2 SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 12­1
 

12.2.1 CRE Customer Sub­Group ................................................................................ 12­1
 

12.2.2 Life­Cycle Cost and Payback Period Results for Small Business Sub­Group .. 12­5

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 12­10

LIST OF TABLES

Table 12.2.1 Census Data for Supermarket and Other Grocery Business Class by

Number of Establishments per Firm.................................................................. 12­2

Table 12.2.2 Census Data for Convenience Store Business Class by Number of

Establishments per Firm .................................................................................... 12­3

Table 12.2.3 Census Data for Convenience Store with Gasoline Station Business Class

by Number of Establishments per Firm............................................................. 12­4

Table 12.2.4 Mean LCC Savings by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small

Business Sub­Group and All Business Types (2007$)*.................................... 12­6

Table 12.2.5 Percentage of Customers Showing Positive Life­Cycle Cost Savings by

Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub­Group

and All Business Types (2007$)*...................................................................... 12­7

Table 12.2.6 Mean Payback Period by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level,

Small Business Sub­Group and All Business Types (2007$)*.......................... 12­8

Table 12.2.7 Percentage of Customers Showing PBP Less Than 3 Years, by Equipment

Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub­Group and All

Business Types*................................................................................................. 12­9

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CHAPTER 12. LIFE­CYCLE COST SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS
 

12.1 INTRODUCTION
 

The life­cycle cost (LCC) sub­group analysis evaluates impacts on any identifiable

groups of customers of commercial refrigeration equipment (CRE) who may be

disproportionately affected by amended energy conservation standards. The U.S. Department of

Energy (DOE) accomplished this, in part, by analyzing the LCC and payback period (PBP) for

those CRE customers who fall into any specific sub­groups.

DOE used the LCC spreadsheet model to estimate the impact on CRE sub­groups. DOE

developed this LCC spreadsheet model to conduct the LCC and PBP analyses for both CRE

customers, as described in Chapter 8, Life­Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses. The

standard LCC and PBP analyses (see Chapter 8) for CRE includes various types of food sales

businesses that use commercial refrigeration equipment. The LCC spreadsheet model allows for

the identification of certain sub­groups of businesses, which can then be analyzed by sampling

only that sub­group. Chapter 8 explains in detail the inputs to the LCC spreadsheet model used

in determining the LCC and PBP. The LCC spreadsheet model is accessible over the internet

(http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/refrigeration_equipment.html).

12.2 SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS

12.2.1 CRE Customer Sub­Group

DOE identified small businesses as a sub­group that possibly could be disproportionately

affected by the amended energy conservation standard for CRE units. DOE was concerned that

increases in the purchase price of commercial refrigeration equipment could have negative

impacts on small businesses (i.e., those with low annual revenues). To identify small businesses,

DOE used size standards from the Small Business Administration (SBA) to define which

business entities are considered to be small. The SBA established size standards for types of

economic activity, or industry, under the North American Industry Classification System

(NAICS).1

The SBA defines a small business from a customer perspective by either its annual

receipts (i.e., revenues) or its number of employees. Assembly, education, food services, office,

and retail businesses are generally defined to be small if annual receipts are $6 million or less. In

the case of the retail food sales business, the SBA defines as small businesses supermarkets and

other grocery stores and convenience stores with less than $25 million in total annual sales. For

specialty stores (e.g., meat markets, bakeries, fish and seafood markets) and beer, wine and

liquor stores, this limit is set at less than $6.5 million in annual sales. According to the Food

Marketing Institute, the average supermarket had sales of approximately $15 million in 2006, so

a small business could be represented as ownership of one or two average­size supermarkets or a

chain of smaller grocery or convenience stores.

The Food Marketing Institute defines independent stores as a retailer with one to ten

stores, so most small supermarkets or grocery businesses as defined by SBA would be classified

as independent grocery stores by the industry as opposed to being chain stores. A somewhat

larger chain of convenience stores could still be classified as a small business.

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In examining the total CRE sales to entities that might be considered as small businesses,

DOE analyzed detailed statistical data from the 2002 CBECS2 for the three of the four business

types identified in this analysis: supermarkets and grocery stores, convenience stores (including

specialty food stores), and convenience stores without gasoline stations. Because of the large

chain presence, as well as the need for larger stores to deal with merchandise, multiline line

retailers were presumed to not fall into the small business category.

The 2002 census examines sales and total number of establishments for retail firms and

provides this information categorized by number of sales establishments per firm, as shown in

Table 12.2.1 through Table 12.2.3. From the census data, it is possible to identify the number of

firms in each category, the number of establishments in each category, total employment in each

category, and the total sales in each category. It is then possible to develop average statistics for

each category in terms of number of establishments per firm, total sales per establishment, and

total sales per firm. From the latter one can estimate whether a category, in terms of number of

establishments per firm, is composed largely from firms that might be classified as small

businesses. This is first shown in Table 12.2.1, for supermarket and other grocery firms. If the

average annual sales per firm in a category are substantially less than $25 million, the category

as a whole was considered likely composed of small businesses. If the average annual sales per

firm are substantially greater than $25 million, the category as a whole was unlikely to be

composed of small business. When the average sales per firm was close to the threshold, it was

assumed that approximately 50 percent would likely be considered small businesses.

Table 12.2.1	 Census Data for Supermarket and Other Grocery Business Class by Number

of Establishments per Firm

Supermarkets

& other grocery (except convenience) stores

Average Avg. Firm is

Number of Total Establishments Sales per Sales per Small

Firms Employment per Firm Establishment Firm Business

All firms 42,318 2,437,750 1.6 5975 9340 TRUE

Single unit firms 39,912 461,199 1.0 1487 1487 TRUE

Multiunit firms 2,406 1,976,551 10.9 12802 139610 FALSE

Firms with 1 establishment 792 23,775 1.0 3465 3465 TRUE

Firms with 2 establishments 695 55,560 2.0 5071 10142 TRUE

Firms with 3 or 4 establishments 420 66,531 3.3 6350 21122 TRUE

for ~50%

Firms with 5 to 9 establishments 268 89,434 6.5 7925 51512 FALSE

Firms with 10 to 24 establishments 130 133,065 14.9 10592 158221 FALSE

Firms with 25 to 49 establishments 48 104,431 34.2 10262 351054 FALSE

Firms with 50 to 99 establishments 16 90,809 72.8 12445 905409 FALSE

Firms with 100 establishments or more 37 1,412,946 437.0 15556 6797970 FALSE

Fraction of establishments considered small business 0.647

Fraction of firms classed as small business 0.983

Fraction of employment in small businesses 0.235

Fraction of sales in small businesses 0.186

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These same data are tabulated for convenience stores (including specialty food stores and

beer, wine and liquor stores as was done in the LCC analysis). Because the size standards are

different for convenience stores versus specialty food and beer, wine, and liquor stores, the

results are first shown separately, and then aggregated in Table 12.2.2.

Table 12.2.2	 Census Data for Convenience Store Business Class by Number of

Establishments per Firm

Avg.

Average Firm is

Number of Total Establishments Sales per Sales per Small

Firms Employment per Firm Establishment Firm Business

All firms 25,527 138,316 1.1 698 798 TRUE

Single­unit firms 24,854 93,482 1.0 570 570 TRUE

Multiunit firms 673 44,834 6.5 1423 9217 TRUE

res

Firms with 1 establishment 340 3,010 1.0 1015 1015 TRUE

stoe

Firms with 2 establishments 161 2,263 2.0 1010 2019 TRUE

ienc

Firms with 3 or 4 establishments 86 2,352 3.2 1186 3846 TRUE

Conven

Firms with 5 to 9 establishments 39 2,331 6.5 1112 7214 TRUE

Firms with 10 to 24 establishments 19 2,132 13.8 1118 15415 TRUE

Firms with 25 to 49 establishments 12 3,461 38.9 914 35579 FALSE

Firms with 50 to 99 establishments 10 5,643 70.4 1231 86670 FALSE

Firms with 100 establishments or more 6 23,642 288.5 1926 555755 FALSE

All firms 45,085 262,587 1.2 773 917 TRUE

Single­unit firms 43,131 193,189 1.0 693 693 TRUE

Multiunit firms 1,954 69,398 5.3 1109 5853 TRUE

es Stor

Firms with 1 establishment 976 8,604 1.0 1111 1111 TRUE s &store quor

Firms with 2 establishments 485 9,773 2.0 1581 3162 TRUE

Specialty food

d Li

Firms with 3 or 4 establishments 266 6,618 3.3 1259 4157 TRUE

e an

Firms with 5 to 9 establishments 127 5,773 6.3 1155 7332 TRUE for

~ 45%*

Beer Win

Firms with 10 to 24 establishments 59 6,694 15.2 1635 24910 FALSE

Firms with 25 to 49 establishments 19 4,786 35.7 1374 49085 FALSE

Firms with 50 to 99 establishments 11 5,767 72.4 1090 78873 FALSE

Firms with 100 establishments or more 11 21,383 391.5 815 319255 FALSE

Fraction of establishments considered small business 0.879

Fraction of firms classed as small business 0.997

Fraction of employment in small businesses 0.815

Fraction of sales 0.804

* True for specialty food stores but false for liquor stores

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Finally the data are tabulated for combination gasoline stations with convenience stores

in Table 12.2.3.

Table 12.2.3	 Census Data for Convenience Store with Gasoline Station Business Class by

Number of Establishments per Firm

Gasoline stations with convenience stores

Avg.

Average Firm is

Number of Total Establishments Sales per Sales per Small

Firms Employment per Firm Establishment Firm Business

All firms 44,361 722,047 2.1 1993 4209 TRUE

Single­unit firms 39,457 255,812 1.0 1501 1501 TRUE

Multiunit firms 4,904 466,235 11.1 2351 25998 FALSE

Firms with 1 establishment 1,418 14,582 1.0 2062 2062 TRUE

Firms with 2 establishments 1,220 23,073 2.0 2058 4117 TRUE

Firms with 3 or 4 establishments 849 26,686 3.4 2126 7196 TRUE

Firms with 5 to 9 establishments 646 33,665 6.4 1966 12648 TRUE

Firms with 10 to 24 establishments 485 58,089 14.8 1991 29441 FALSE

Firms with 25 to 49 establishments 163 43,196 34.1 2061 70261 FALSE

Firms with 50 to 99 establishments 57 30,103 68.4 2228 152453 FALSE

Firms with 100 establishments or more 66 236,841 404.8 2652 1073415 FALSE

Fraction of establishments considered small business 0.576

Fraction of firms classed as small business 0.988

Fraction of employment in small businesses 0.530

Fraction of sales 0.475

What is first clear from examining these data is that the majority of firms in each business

class are considered small businesses. This is true for commercial businesses in the United

States at large. According to the SBA, 99 percent of all U.S. businesses fall under the SBA

definition of small business.3 However, the data in Table 12.2.1 show that less than 20 percent

of the sales and less than 24 percent of the employment in the supermarket/grocery business

class occurs in small businesses. The financial statistics of the class are generally not well

characterized by small businesses. This is contrasted with convenience stores shown in Table

12.2.2. In the convenience store business class approximately 80 percent of the sales and 82

percent of the employment occurs in small businesses. Convenience stores with gasoline

stations, shown in Table 12.2.3, are more mixed with slightly less than 50 percent of the sales

and slightly more than 50 percent of employment occurring in entities fitting the definition of

small businesses.

In examining the four business classes considered in the LCC analysis in Chapter 8, DOE

considered which business class would be substantially considered representative of small

businesses and with the potential to be adversely affected under this rulemaking. DOE does not

have sufficient information to correlate annual revenues or the likelihood of a purchaser being a

small business with the costs of more efficient CRE units to identify the sub­group of small

businesses in the building sample. However, DOE believes that the results from the LCC subgroup analysis provide an adequate indication of whether the small business sub­group would be

disproportionately advantaged or disadvantaged by a proposed standard. Convenience stores in

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particular appear be much more representative of small businesses overall. Convenience stores

and specialty stores such as meat markets and liquor stores pay higher electricity prices

compared to the other business classes, but use similar amounts of electricity for the same type

of equipment. Convenience stores were estimated to typically face somewhat higher costs of

capital (i.e., a difference estimated in Chapter 8 as 250 basis points, or 2.5 percent). In addition,

for the sub­group analysis, it was assumed that convenience stores that are not represented by a

national chain have no access to national accounts and therefore face higher wholesale and retail

markups for initial equipment purchases, and therefore experience higher equipment prices. This

is somewhat offset by the likelihood that they will keep the equipment for longer periods,

resulting in longer average equipment lifetimes. DOE believes that this trend is likely common

in small grocery stores as well. Overall, however, the lower the cost of electricity and the higher

the cost of capital, the more likely it is that an entity would be disadvantaged by the requirement

to purchase more efficient CRE units.

Based on the analysis, DOE has used data for convenience stores as a representative

proxy for small business CRE purchasers, but with the added assumption of no access to national

account purchasing, resulting in higher equipment costs. This has been defined as the

representative sub­group for the LCC sub­group analysis. With the exception of the equipment

cost, all other inputs to the LCC and PBP spreadsheet model for the small business sub­group

were the same as for convenience stores considered in the rulemaking (e.g., total installed costs,

repair costs, maintenance costs, discount rates).

12.2.2 Life­Cycle Cost and Payback Period Results for Small Business Sub­Group

Table 12.2.4 summarizes the LCC savings results for the small business sub­group for

each of the CRE equipment classes, and compares them to the results for the total sample of

business types used in the overall LCC analysis.

Table 12.2.5 compares the percentages of customers showing LCC savings for the two

groups of businesses, namely, the small business sub­group and the total sample of all business

types considered for this CRE rulemaking. Similarly, Table 12.2.6 summarizes the mean PBP

results for the two groups, and Table 12.2.7 compares the percentages of the two groups

experiencing payback periods of less than 3 years. The baseline in all cases is the baseline

efficiency level used in the life­cycle cost analysis (level 1). Results are provided by TSL for

each of the 15 CRE equipment classes. As is evident from the LCC and PBP results, the overall

impact of a potentially higher CRE efficiency level on the small business sub­group is

qualitatively similar to the impact on the full sample of business types that use CRE units

covered by this rulemaking. The LCC savings are somewhat higher for the small business subgroup, with the higher cost of energy and higher discount rates offset by the increased lifetime

compared to the overall population. The maximum LCC savings are obtained at TSL 3 in all

equipment classes but VCT.RC.L, where it is TSL 4 for the small business sub­group. In

addition, for the small business sub­group, only one equipment class, SOC.RC.M, showed a

negative LCC at level 5. Based on this analysis, as a recognizable sub­group, small businesses

would expect no additional negative impact from increased CRE efficiency levels compared with

the full sample of CRE customers considered in the rulemaking.

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Table 12.2.4 Mean LCC Savings by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small
 

Business Sub­Group and All Business Types (2007$)*
 

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL4 TSL5

Small Business 1536 1524 2096 2096 564

All Business Types 1201 1143 1551 1551 (234)

Small Business 3995 5158 5301 4688 4688

All Buildings 3132 4005 4089 3364 3364

Small Business 968 1413 1840 1840 1308

All Business Types 758 1065 1342 1342 703

Small Business 366 757 1689 1625 1625

All Business Types 286 581 1107 867 867

Small Business 876 4842 4941 5042 5042

All Business Types 676 3594 3662 3546 3546

Small Business 2957 4981 5155 5151 5151

All Business Types 2305 3806 3841 3818 3818

Small Business 805 1511 2031 2031 2031

All Business Types 640 1191 1565 1565 1565

Small Business 1036 1044 1492 1492 400

All Business Types 810 782 1106 1106 (170)

Small Business 669 994 1346 1346 953

All Business Types 527 756 988 988 516

Small Business 461 973 1107 1107 (175)

All Business Types 363 759 819 819 (673)

Small Business 476 1013 1221 1202 1202

All Business Types 376 792 942 917 917

Small Business 766 1206 1274 1274 1274

All Business Types 593 927 971 971 971

Small Business 393 708 1005 974 974

All Business Types 312 551 759 721 721

Small Business 766 1394 2069 2052 2052

All Business Types 610 1094 1585 1559 1559

Small Business 244 898 925 919 919

All Business Types 192 692 710 693 693

VOP.RC.M

VOP.RC.L

VOP.SC.M

VCT.RC.M

VCT.RC.L

VCT.SC.I

VCS.SC.I

SVO.RC.M

SVO.SC.M

SOC.RC.M

HZO.RC.M

HZO.RC.L

HZO.SC.M

HZO.SC.L

HCT.SC.I

* Energy savings calculated compared to baseline. Values in parentheses stand for negative LCC savings

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Table 12.2.5 Percentage of Customers Showing Positive Life­Cycle Cost Savings by
 

Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub­Group and

All Business Types (2007$)*

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL4 TSL5

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 58%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 35%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Buildings 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 95%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 81%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 95% 95%

All Business Types 100% 100% 99% 79% 79%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 55%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 35%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 96%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 82%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 33%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 26%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

VOP.RC.M

VOP.RC.L

VOP.SC.M

VCT.RC.M

VCT.RC.L

VCT.SC.I

VCS.SC.I

SVO.RC.M

SVO.SC.M

SOC.RC.M

HZO.RC.M

HZO.RC.L

HZO.SC.M

HZO.SC.L

HCT.SC.I

* Compared with purchase of a baseline level equipment

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Table 12.2.6 Mean Payback Period by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small
 

Business Sub­Group and All Business Types (2007$)*
 

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL4 TSL5

Small Business 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.0 8.5

All Business Types 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.2 9.7

Small Business 0.7 1.1 1.2 2.7 2.7

All Buildings 0.8 1.2 1.3 3.0 3.0

Small Business 0.8 1.6 2.4 2.4 5.2

All Business Types 0.8 1.8 2.7 2.7 5.9

Small Business 0.8 1.3 4.2 5.6 5.6

All Business Types 0.9 1.4 4.6 6.1 6.1

Small Business 1.1 2.4 2.4 3.4 3.4

All Business Types 1.2 2.6 2.6 3.7 3.7

Small Business 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2

All Business Types 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.5

Small Business 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.3

All Business Types 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.4 1.4

Small Business 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 8.5

All Business Types 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.1 9.7

Small Business 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.3 5.2

All Business Types 0.7 1.6 2.6 2.6 5.9

Small Business 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.7 10.8

All Business Types 0.6 0.9 1.9 1.9 12.6

Small Business 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6

All Business Types 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.8

Small Business 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7

All Business Types 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8

Small Business 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.3 2.3

All Business Types 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.5

Small Business 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.7

All Business Types 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.9

Small Business 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.9

All Business Types 0.7 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.1

VOP.RC.M

VOP.RC.L

VOP.SC.M

VCT.RC.M

VCT.RC.L

VCT.SC.I

VCS.SC.I

SVO.RC.M

SVO.SC.M

SOC.RC.M

HZO.RC.M

HZO.RC.L

HZO.SC.M

HZO.RC.L

HCT.SC.I

*Compared to purchase of baseline equipment

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Table 12.2.7 Percentage of Customers Showing PBP Less Than 3 Years, by Equipment
 

Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub­Group and All Business

Types*

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL4 TSL5

Small Business 100% 100% 95% 95% 1%

All Business Types 100% 100% 88% 88% 0%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 59% 59%

All Buildings 100% 100% 100% 51% 51%

Small Business 100% 100% 79% 79% 5%

All Business Types 100% 99% 68% 68% 1%

Small Business 100% 100% 21% 4% 4%

All Business Types 100% 100% 8% 1% 1%

Small Business 100% 82% 80% 37% 37%

All Business Types 100% 70% 68% 31% 31%

Small Business 100% 100% 94% 87% 87%

All Business Types 100% 100% 85% 79% 79%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Small Business 100% 100% 95% 95% 1%

All Business Types 100% 99% 90% 90% 0%

Small Business 100% 100% 84% 84% 5%

All Business Types 100% 100% 70% 70% 1%

Small Business 100% 100% 96% 96% 0%

All Business Types 100% 100% 92% 92% 0%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 99% 99%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 99% 99% 99%

Small Business 100% 100% 99% 87% 87%

All Business Types 100% 100% 95% 79% 79%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 99% 99%

Small Business 100% 100% 100% 98% 98%

All Business Types 100% 100% 100% 92% 92%

VOP.RC.M

VOP.RC.L

VOP.SC.M

VCT.RC.M

VCT.RC.L

VCT.SC.I

VCS.SC.I

SVO.RC.M

SVO.SC.M

SOC.RC.M

HZO.RC.M

HZO.RC.L

HZO.SC.M

HZO.RC.L

HCT.SC.I

*Compared to purchase of baseline equipment

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REFERENCES
 

1.	 Title 13, Code of Federal Regulations, Chapter I–Small Business Administration, Part 121–

Small Business Administration, Subpart A–Size Eligibility Provisions and Standards, May

4, 2005.

2.	 U.S. CENSUS. 2002. U.S. Census Bureau American Fact Finder, Sector 44: Retail Trade:

Subject Series–Estab & Firm Size: Single Unit and Multiunit Firms for the United States:

2002. Accessed Dec 2007. http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/IBQTable?_bm=y&­

ds_name=EC0244SSSZ3&­_skip=600&­geo_id=&­parsed=true&­_lang=en&­

fds_name=EC0200A1

3.	 SBA. 2007. The Small Business Economy for Data Year 2006, Report to the President.

U.S. Small Business Administration. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.

<http://www.sba.gov/advo/research/sb_econ2007.pdf>

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