8A-i APPENDIX 8A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FO R LIFE

- CYCLE COST AND PAYBA CK
PERIOD SPREADSHEET

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8A.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 8A.2 MODEL CONVENTIONS ............................................................................................1 8A.3 INDIVIDUAL WORKSHEET S ....................................................................................2 8A.4 UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS INSTRUCTIONS ........................................................38A-1 APPENDIX 8 A . USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LIFE

- CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD SPREADSHEET

8A .1 INTRODUCTION

The results obtained for the life -cycle cost (LCC) and payback period (PBP) analyses can be examined and reproduced using th e Microsoft Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies website at: h ttp://www1.eere.energy.go v/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/fluorescent_lamp_ballast s.html

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There is one spreadsheet covering all combinations of l amp and ballast system equipment classes. The spreadsheet post ed on the DOE website represents the latest version that ha s been tested with both Microsoft Excel 2003 and 2007. To execute the spreadsheet in “sample calc ulation ” mode requires Microsoft Excel 2003 or later

. To execute fully in uncertainty mode or “CB Simulation

, ” the model requires the commercially available Cr ystal Ball add -in. The LCC and PBP spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the change in LCC from an energy conservation standard and the PBP that such a change implies. These concepts are explained in the main body of preliminary technical support d ocument (TSD) chapter 8

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To operate the spreadsheet

, a user simply describes the florescent lamp and ballast system desired for examin ation. A ny market and energy price behaviour can be set by adjust ing the fields in the “User Input” box in the LCC Summ ary sheet. In “sample calculation” mode, the model does not need to be “run” in any way. All permutations are presented in parallel and all fields are calculated in real -time, so no further action is necessary. Therefore, strictly speaking

, there are no “i nstructions” necessary to operate the spreadsheet. Rather, in this appendix, DOE provides a description of the model in case users wish to examine DOE’s assumptions and methods or to test alternative assumptions. However, users who desire uncertainty analy sis results can follow the instructions in section 8A.4

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8A .2 MODEL CONVENTIONS

Both of the model’s primary outputs, LCC savings and PBP, are calculated on the LCC worksheet by using base case and standards case as inputs ( e.g. , t he LCC for a particular lamp and ballast system is calculated by subtracting the LCC associated with that unit from the LCC associated with the same unit at CSL 0 ).

In general, logic flows from data sources and assumption ( assembled on the right- most work sheets ) toward outputs (produced on the left-most worksheets). Further data carried from one sheet and reproduced in another are specifically called “Export Parameter” and generally presented in a box in the upper left- or upper right-hand side of a worksh eet.8A-2 8A .3 INDIVIDUAL WORKSHEET S

The LCC/PBP spreadsheet or workbook consists of the following worksheets described below.

Instructions This worksheet contains notes from the model developers for each other and for spreadsheet users.

LCC Summary This worksheet presents LCC savings and PBP results by ballast type at the bottom half of the page to produce the results that DOE provides in the preliminary TSD executive summary and chapter 8

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Equipment Details This worksheet gathers the relevant information for the selected product classes and market behavior before it is presented in the LCC Summary sheet.

Assumptions & Inputs This worksheet presents data on life- event related replacement, disposal, and labor costs.

Equipment Usage Rate This workshe et contains data on all representative product classes examined and presents the annual operating hours for the selected product class in the examined sector.

Equipment Price This worksheet contains pricing breakdowns for components and mark

- ups as well as various other details by product class.

Electricity Prices This worksheet organizes the different energy price trends selectable on the LCC Summary sheet.

Electricity Price Trends This sheet provides the time- series specifics for each of the energy price trends contained in the model.

Discount Rate This worksheet derives a discount rate based on the user’s selection from the LCC Summary sheet. Data for residential, commercial, and industrial sectors are presented.

Residential Op

. Hrs This works heet presents the data and calculations for describing the operating hours for a ballast operating in this sector.

Commercial Op. Hrs This worksheet presents the data and calculations for describing the operating hours for a ballast operating in this sec tor.

Industrial Op. Hrs This worksheet presents the data and calculations for describing the operating hours for a ballast operating in this sector.

Lifetime This worksheet describes the lifetime assumptions of this model for all examined sectors.8A-3 En gineering Summary This worksheet describes the details of each representative product, organized by product class. These specifics drive the whole of the analysis.

Labels This worksheet organizes the user selections and their current values from the LC C Summary page.

8A .4 UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS INSTRUCTIONS

Crystal Ball results may be saved by using the options in Create Report and Extract Data functions on the Control Box window.

To run a Crystal Ball simulation, do the following:

To produce Monte Carlo results using Crystal Ball, select Run from the Run menu on the menu bar. To make basic changes in the run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from the Run menu. After each simulation run, the user needs to select Res et (also from the Run menu) before Run can be selected again. Once it has completed its run sequence, Crystal Ball will produce a series of distributions. Using the menu bars on the distribution results, it is possible to obtain further statistical informa tion. The time taken to complete a run sequence can be reduced by minimizing the Crystal Ball window in Excel. Ten thousand is the default number of runs for this analysis.

A step

- by -step summary of the procedure for running a distribution analysis is outlined below:

1. Find the Crystal Ball toolbar (at the top of the screen)

2. Click on RUN

3. Select Preference and choose from the following choices:

a. Monte Carlo

b. Latin Hypercube (recommended)

c. Initial seed choices and whether it should be constant between runs

d. Select number of Monte Carlo Trials (10,000 is suggested ).

4. To run the simulation, follow the sequence below (on the Crystal Ball toolbar) :

a. RUN

b. RESET

c. RUN

5. Wait until the program provides a message that the simulation is completed. Depending on computer sp eed , this function can take a few minutes (typically, approximately 90 minutes on a Pentium 5 machine for 10,000 runs).8A-4 Crystal Ball Results

1. After the simulation has finished, click on the Windows tab bar labeled Crystal Ball to view the distribution chart s generated

. 2. Several of the variables of interest, including LCC

, LCC savings, and PBP are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations or trials performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts show the low and high endpoints of the forecasts. The View selection on the Crystal Ball toolbar can be used to specify cumulative or frequency plots.

3. To calculate the probability that LCC savings will occur, either type 0 in the box by the rig ht arrow, or move the arrow key with the cursor to 0 on the scale. The value in the Certainty box shows the likelihood that the LCC savings will occur. To calculate the certainty of PBP as below a certain number of years, choose that value as the high endp oint.

4. To generate a printout report, select Create Report from the Run menu. The toolbar choice of Forecast Windows allows select ing charts and statistics of interest. For further information on Crystal Ball outputs, please refer to Understanding the Forec ast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual. Crystal Ball results
may also be saved to a separate Excel spreadsheet by using the Extract Data function under Analyze on the Control Panel window.