Grain (Cereals)

USITC Publication 3350

September 2000

OFFICE OF INDUSTRIES

U.S. International Trade Commission

Washington, DC 20436
UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION

This report was prepared principally by

John Reeder

Agricultural Crops Branch

Agriculture and Forest Products Division

Vern Simpson

Robert A. Rogowsky

Address all communications to

Secretary to the Commission

United States International Trade Commission

Washington, DC 20436

COMMISSIONERS

Deanna Tanner Okun, Vice Chairman

Stephen Koplan, Chairman

Lynn M. Bragg

Marcia E. Miller

Jennifer A. Hillman

Thelma J. Askey

Director of Industries

Director of Operations
 

1

 The information and analysis provided in this report are for the purposes of this report only. 

Nothing in this report should be construed to indicate how the Commission would find in an

investigation conducted under statutory authority covering the same or similar subject matter.

i

PREFACE

In 1991 the United States International Trade Commission initiated its current Industry and

Trade Summary series of informational reports on the thousands of products imported into

and exported from the United States. Each summary addresses a different commodity/industry

area and contains information on product uses, U.S. and foreign producers, and customs

treatment. Also included is an analysis of the basic factors affecting trends in consumption,

production, and trade of the commodity, as well as those bearing on the competitiveness of

U.S. industries in domestic and foreign markets.1

This report on grain covers the period 1995-99. Listed below are the individual summary

reports published to date on the agriculture and forest product sectors.

USITC

publication Publication

number date Title

2459 November 1991 ........... Live Sheep and Meat of Sheep

2462 November 1991 ........... Cigarettes

2477 January 1992 ............. Dairy Produce

2478 January 1992 ............. Oilseeds

2511 March 1992 .............. Live Swine and Fresh, Chilled, or

 Frozen Pork

2520 June 1992 ................ Poultry

2544 August 1992 .............. Fresh or Frozen Fish

2545 November 1992 ........... Natural Sweeteners

2551 November 1992 ........... Newsprint

2612 March 1993 .............. Wood Pulp and Waste Paper

2615 March 1993 .............. Citrus Fruit

2625 April 1993 ............... Live Cattle and Fresh, Chilled, or

 Frozen Beef and Veal

2631 May 1993 ................ Animal and Vegetable Fats and Oils

2635 June 1993 ................ Cocoa, Chocolate, and Confectionery

2636 May 1993 ................ Olives

2639 June 1993 ................ Wine and Certain Fermented

 Beverages

2693 October 1993 ............. Printing and Writing Paper

2702 November 1993 ........... Fur Goods

2726 January 1994 ............. Furskins

2737 March 1994 .............. Cut Flowers

2749 March 1994 .............. Paper Boxes and Bags

2762 April 1994 ............... Coffee and Tea
ii

PREFACE—Continued

USITC

publication Publication

number date Title

2859 May 1995 ................ Seeds

2865 April 1995 ............... Malt Beverages

2875 May 1995 ................ Certain Fresh Deciduous Fruits

2898 June 1995 ................ Certain Miscellaneous Vegetable

 Substances and Products

2917 October 1995 ............. Lumber, Flooring, and Siding

2918 August 1995 .............. Printed Matter

2928 November 1995 ........... Processed Vegetables

3015 February 1997 ............ Hides, Skins, and Leather

3020 March 1997 .............. Nonalcoholic Beverages

3022 April 1997 ............... Industrial Papers and Paperboards

3080 January 1998 ............. Dairy Products

3083 February 1998 ............ Canned Fish, Except Shellfish

3095 March 1998 .............. Milled Grains, Malts, and Starches

3096 April 1998 ............... Millwork

3145 December 1998 ............ Wool and Related Animal Hair

3148 December 1998 ............ Poultry

3171 March 1999 .............. Dried Fruits Other Than Tropical

3268 December 1999 ............ Eggs

3275 January 2000 ............. Animal Feeds
iii

CONTENTS

Page

Preface ................................................................ i

Abbreviations and acronyms .................................... viii

Abstract .............................................................. 1

Introduction ......................................................... 3

Wheat ................................................................ 8

Durum wheat ........................................................ 8

Hard wheat .......................................................... 8

Soft wheat ........................................................... 9

USDA standards ...................................................... 9

Uses ............................................................... 10

Corn ................................................................. 10

Sorghum .............................................................. 11

Rice .................................................................. 12

Oats .................................................................. 13

Barley ................................................................ 13

Specialty grains ......................................................... 14

Buckwheat .......................................................... 14

Popcorn ............................................................ 14

Canary seed ......................................................... 15

Rye ................................................................ 15

Wild rice ............................................................ 16

Millet .............................................................. 16

Triticale ............................................................ 17

 Emmer and spelt ...................................................... 17

U.S. industry profile ............................................... 18

Industry structure ........................................................ 18

Corn ................................................................ 18

Wheat ............................................................... 19

Rice ................................................................ 19

Sorghum ............................................................. 19

Oats and barley ....................................................... 20

Specialty grains ....................................................... 20

Employment ............................................................ 21

Labor intensity, skill levels, level of productivity ................................. 21

Vertical and horizontal integration ........................................... 22

Marketing and pricing practices ............................................. 22
iv

CONTENTS–Continued

Page

U.S. industry profile—Continued

U.S. Government programs ................................................ 24

Production flexibility contract payments (PFC) ................................ 25

Marketing assistance .................................................... 25

Conservation reserve program ............................................. 27

Export enhancement program ............................................. 27

Export credit guarantee and U.S. food aid programs ............................ 28

Research and development ................................................. 29

U.S. market .......................................................... 31

Consumer characteristics and factors affecting demand ............................ 31

Characteristics of consumers or users ....................................... 32

Factors influencing the demand for grain ..................................... 33

Consumption ........................................................... 34

Trends and import-penetration levels ........................................ 35

Conditions of competition between foreign and U.S. grain ........................ 35

Production ............................................................. 36

Corn ................................................................ 36

Wheat ............................................................... 37

Rice ................................................................ 37

Sorghum ............................................................. 37

Barley, oats, and specialty grain ........................................... 37

U.S. trade ............................................................. 38

Overview (U.S. trade balance) .............................................. 38

U.S. imports ........................................................... 38

Principal suppliers and import levels ....................................... 38

U.S. trade measures ................................................... 39

Tariff and nontariff measures .......................................... 39

U.S. Government trade-related investigations .............................. 40

U.S. exports ............................................................ 41

Principal markets and export levels ........................................ 41

Corn ............................................................. 41

Wheat ............................................................ 42

Rice ............................................................. 42

Sorghum .......................................................... 43

Foreign trade measures ................................................. 43

Tariff rate quotas (TRQs) ............................................. 44

Foreign government farm support ....................................... 44

Other foreign trade measures ........................................... 46
v

CONTENTS–Continued

Page

Foreign industry profile .......................................... 46

Foreign market profile ................................................... 46

World grain markets .................................................. 47

Wheat ............................................................. 47

Corn and feed grain ................................................... 47

Rice ............................................................... 48

Major world producers ................................................... 48

World producers’ involvement in export markets ................................ 48

Appendixes ......................................................

A. Statistical tables ......................................................... A-1

B. Explanation of tariff and trade agreement terms .................................. B-1

Figures

1. U.S. grain: Channels of distribution ............................................ 4

2. Grain: Structure of the U.S. industry ........................................... 5

Tables

A-1. Grain: U.S. production of and price received for the leading U.S. grain 

crops, by type, crop years 1995-99 ........................................ A-2

A-2. Grains: Operating characteristics of leading U.S. grain farms, by type

of grain, 1997 ........................................................ A-3

A-3. Specialty grain: U.S. acreage harvested, number of farms, yield, and

production, 1992 and 1997 .............................................. A-4

A-4. Grain: Harvested acreage, and yield of the leading U.S. crops, by type,

crop-years 1995-99 .................................................... A-4

A-5. Corn: U.S. corn for grain, harvested acreage, yield, and production, by

12-leading States, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ............................. A-5

A-6. Wheat: U.S. wheat harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 11-leading

States, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ...................................... A-6

A-7. Rice: U.S. rice harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 6-leading

States, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ...................................... A-7

A-8. Sorghum: U.S. grain sorghum harvested acreage, yield, and production,

by 10-leading States, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ........................... A-8
vi

CONTENTS–Continued

Page

Tables—Continued

A-9. Oats: U.S. oats harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 10-leading

States, crop-years 1995/96 to1999/00 ...................................... A-9

A-10. Barley: U.S. barley harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 9-leading

States, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ...................................... A-10

A-11 USDA support for crop farmers: Production flexibility contract payments

under the 1996 FAIR Act, 1996-2000 ...................................... A-11

A-12 The FAIR Act of 1996: Loan rates and contract payment rates, by crop,

1995/96 to 1999/00 .................................................... A-12

A-13. Wheat: U.S. production, imports, exports, beginning stocks, and apparent 

consumption, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ................................. A-13

A-14. Durum wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic 

merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

season average price, 1995/96 to 1999/00 ................................... A-14

A-15. Hard winter wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic 

merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

season average price, 1995/96 to 1999/00 ................................... A-15

A-16. Hard spring wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic 

merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

season average price, 1995/96 to 1999/00 ................................... A-15

A-17. Soft red wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic 

merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

season average price, crop-year 1995/96 and 1999/00 .......................... A-16

A-18. White wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic 

merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

season average price, crop-year 1995/96 and 1999/00 .......................... A-16

A-19. Corn: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise,

imports for consumption, and apparent consumption, crop-year 1995/96

and 1999/00 ......................................................... A-17

A-20. Popcorn: U.S. production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for 

consumption, apparent consumption, and price, crop-year 1995-1999 ............... A-17

A-21. Oats: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic 

merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

season average price, crop-year 1995/96 and 1999/00 .......................... A-18

A-22. Sorghum: U.S. production, imports of domestic merchandise, exports for 

consumption, beginning stocks, and apparent consumption, crop-year

1995/96 and 1999/00 ................................................... A-18

A-23. Barley: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic 

merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

season average price, crop-year 1995/96 and 1999/00 .......................... A-19

A-24. Rice: U.S. beginning stocks, production, imports, exports, and apparent

consumption, crop-year 1995/96 and 1999/00 ................................ A-19
vii

CONTENTS–Continued

Page

Tables—Continued

A-25. Long-grain rice: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic 

merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

price, crop-year 1995/96 and 1999/00 ...................................... A-20

A-26. Medium and short-grain rice: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports 

of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent 

consumption, and price, crop-year 1995/96 and 1999/00 ........................ A-20

A-27. Grain: World supply and use, by principal marketing type, 1995/96 to 1999/00 ......... A-21

A-28. Grain: U.S. production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for

consumption, and apparent U.S. consumption, 1995-99 ......................... A-22

A-29. Grain: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption,

and merchandise trade balance, by selected countries and country

groups, 1995-99 ...................................................... A-23

A-30. Grain: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by principal markets, 1995-99 ........... A-24

A-31. Grain: Volume of U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by principal

type, 1995-99 ........................................................ A-25

A-32. Grain: U.S. imports for consumption, by principal sources, 1995-99 ................. A-26

A-33. Grain: Volume of U.S. imports for consumption, by principal type, 1995-99 ........... A-27

A-34. Grain: Value of U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by principal

type, 1995-99 ........................................................ A-28

A-35. Grain: Value of U.S. imports for consumption, by principal type, 1995-99 ............ A-29

A-36. Grain: Harmonized Tariff Schedule subheadings; description; U.S. 

column 1 rate of duty as of Jan. 1, 2000; U.S. exports, 1999; and

U.S. imports, 1999 .................................................... A-30

A-37. Corn: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by leading markets, 1995-99 ............ A-34

A-38. Wheat: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by leading markets, 1995-99 ........... A-35

A-39. Rice: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by leading markets, 1995-99 ............. A-36

A-40. Sorghum: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by leading markets, 1995-99 ......... A-36

A-41. Wheat: World imports, by leading markets, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ............ A-37

A-42. Corn: World imports, by leading markets, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ............. A-37

A-43. Barley: World imports, by leading markets, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ............ A-37

A-44. Coarse grain: World imports, by leading markets, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ....... A-38

A-45. Rice: World imports, by leading markets, 1996-2000 ............................ A-38

A-46. Wheat: World exports, by leading suppliers, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ........... A-38

A-47. Corn: World exports, by leading suppliers, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ............ A-39

A-48. Barley: World exports, by leading suppliers, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 ........... A-39

A-49. Coarse grain: World exports, by leading suppliers, crop-years 1995/96 

to 1999/00 ........................................................... A-39

A-50. Rice: World exports, by leading suppliers, 1996-2000 ............................ A-40
viii

ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS, AND

ACRONYMS

Cereal Any grain used for food or animal feed, and any grass producing such grain.

For purpose of this report, the term “cereal” is interchangeable with the term

“grain.”

Coarse grain Grain used principally for animal feed, and includes corn, sorghum, barley,

oats, and rye.

EEP Export Enhancement Program: provides financial bonuses under the FAIR Act

to U.S. exporters for certain U.S. exports of grain and other agricultural

products.

FAIR Act The Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 also called the

“Farm bill of 1996.”

Feedgrain Term used interchangeably with the term “coarse grain”: grain used

principally for animal feed, includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, and rye.

GM crops Genetically engineered or modified crops containing genetic modification of

organisms by recombinant DNA techniques.

Grain Used interchangeably with the term “cereal”: the small hard seed or seedlike

fruit, especially that of cereal plant such as wheat, rice, corn, or rye, and

classified for tariff purposes under Chapter 10 of the Harmonized Tariff

Schedule of the United States.

LDP Loan deficiency payment: a payment based on the difference between the

USDA’s fixed loan rate and the prevailing market price of the grain eligible to

be placed under the loan program.

PCP Posted country price: the daily market price for a specified grain in a

particular geographic location, as determined by USDA under the FAIR Act,

for purposes of the commodity loan program.

PFC Production flexibility contract.

Specialty grains The term includes buckwheat, popcorn, canary seed, rye, wild rice, millet,

triticale, emmer, and spelt.

USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture
1

ABSTRACT

This report addresses trade and industry conditions for grain (cereals) such as wheat,

corn, rice, sorghum, barley and oats, for the period 1995-99 (generally covering the

crop years 1995/96 to 1999/00). The report primarily addresses raw or unprocessed

grain (except in the case of milled rice).

• The United States was the world second leading grain producer and leading

grain exporter during crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 and grew annually

about 330 million metric tons of grain (18 percent of world production). Grain

is used to produce milled grain products, such as flour or parboiled rice, or

fed directly to commercial livestock for meat, dairy, and poultry products.

The United States has some of the most productive crop land in the world, and

is a major supplier to other countries of this basic foodstuff.

• The most significant change in technology in grain production during the

period 1995-99 was the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops such

as so-called “Bt-corn” with specific input characteristics. Although widely

planted and used within the United States, opposition to GM crops in the EU

and other foreign countries has adversely affected U.S. corn exports, and has

led to bilateral trade issues. Within the United States, the use, trade and

production of GM crops are subjects of extensive regulatory review and

public attention. 

• In 1997 (the latest year for which data are available), the United States had

a reported 463,000 cash grain farms, with about 180 million acres harvested.

U.S. production of grain amounted to nearly $26 billion in crop-years

1999/00 at the farm level; corn accounted for 66 percent of this value; wheat,

23 percent; rice, 5 percent; sorghum, 4 percent, and oats, 1 percent. The value

of U.S. grain production has been volatile, dropping $14 billion in 4 years

from a record $40 billion in 1996/97, to $26 billion in 1999/00.

• U.S. Government assistance programs for grain farmers provide safety net

farm loans and payments under the Federal Agriculture Improvement and

Reform (FAIR) Act. USDA also provides credit guarantees and assistance for

U.S. grain exports. In 1999, Congress provided about $11 billion in direct

USDA payments to U.S. crop farmers.

• U.S. imports during 1995-99 rose to a record $984 million in 1997, and then

fell back in 1999 to $731 million, about the 1995 level. Most imported grain

consists of wheat, rice, and oats with 98 percent coming from Canada,

Thailand, and the EU. About 3 percent of U.S. grain consumption was

imported during 1995-99.
2

ABSTRACT—Continued

• Foreign markets for U.S. grain purchased an average 35 percent of the value

of U.S. grain production during 1995-99. Nearly half of the $10 billion of

U.S. grain exports in 1999 consisted of corn, 35 percent of wheat, 9 percent

of rice, and 5 percent of sorghum. U.S. grain exports fell sharply from a

record $17 billion in 1996 to $10 billion in 1999. However, the volume of

U.S. grain exports declined negligibly from 92 million to 90 million metric

tons during 1996-99.

• The U.S. general duties on grain covered in this report averaged about 1

percent ad valorem in 1999, with 74 percent entering free of duty. Under

NAFTA, Canadian grain has duty-free entry to the U.S. market. U.S. grain

exports to Mexico, the second-leading market, benefit from similar low or

duty-free access under NAFTA.
 

1

 The terms “grains” and “cereals” are used interchangeably in this report.

 

2

 USITC, Industry and Trade Summary on Seeds (USITC publication 2859), May 1995, and

Industry and Trade Summary on Milled Grain, Malts, and Starches (USITC publication 3095),

Mar. 1998.

3

INTRODUCTION

This summary report provides information on all commonly known grains or cereals,1 such

as wheat, corn, rice, sorghum, barley, and oats; it also includes certain milled rice products

classified for tariff purposes under chapter 10 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the

United States (HTS). Grain seed for planting and nearly all milled grain products, such as

wheat flour (except for certain milled rice), are excluded, and are covered in separate

summaries.2 

The primary industry covered in this summary is the grain farm sector. That includes

commercial farmers who grow grain that is transported to grain elevators, to rail or port

terminals, or directly to livestock growers, grain mills, and food processors (figure 1). Grain

ultimately reaches domestic and foreign consumers in a variety of forms (figure 2). This report

presents information on the structure of the U.S. and foreign grain-farming sectors, domestic

and foreign tariff and nontariff measures, and competitive conditions in domestic and foreign

grain markets. The analysis particularly covers the period 1995-1999.

The structure of the U.S. grain industry is shown in figure 2. The North American Industry

Classification System (NAICS) categories applicable to the industry are found in the fourdigit industry group number 1111, (Oilseed and Grain Farming); under that category are the

five-digit groups--11114 (Wheat Farming); 11115 (Corn Farming); 11116 (Rice Farming);

and 11119 (Other Grain Farming).

U.S. grain farmers grow the various grain crops, most of which are transported off the farm

through a complicated marketing system (figure 1). The leading crops, corn, wheat, rice,

sorghum, and barley, typically move by truck to country elevators or export terminals, or are

kept on-farm or trucked to nearby feeding operations for livestock.

U.S. production of grain covered in this report amounted to about $26 billion at the farm level

in crop-years 1999/00. Corn accounted for about 66 percent of such production; wheat, 23

percent; rice, 5 percent; sorghum, 4 percent; barley, 2 percent; oats, 1 percent, and

miscellaneous grains, such as rye, buckwheat, and wild rice, less than 1 percent. Cereals are

used chiefly to produce milled grain products, such as flour, which in turn are used to produce

food products, and to feed animals (chiefly poultry, hogs, and cattle). The U.S. Government,

through the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), operates a number of farm programs,

such as production flexibility payments (PFC), and the commodity loan program, to assist

U.S. farmers in grain production. These programs are currently authorized through the

Federal Agriculture Improvement Reform Act of 1996 (FAIR Act).
4

Figure 1

U.S. grain: Channels of distribution

Source: USITC staff
5

Figure 2

Grain: Structure of the U.S. industry
6

Figure 2—Continued

Grain: Structure of the U.S. industry

Source: USITC staff.
7

Foreign markets are important for U.S. grain, directly purchasing, on average, 35 percent of

domestic output; however, U.S. grain exports fell sharply during the period 1995-99. Corn,

wheat, and rice are the principal U.S. grain exports. U.S. imports supplied 3 percent of

average U.S. grain consumption, rising slightly during the period 1995-99; the U.S. imports

of significant quantity are Canadian wheat and oats, Thai rice, and European oats.

U.S. grain exports fell by about 40 percent during the period 1995-99 from a record $17

billion in 1996 to around $10 billion in 1999, a decline underscoring the volatility of world

and domestic grain markets. The volume of U.S. grain exports fluctuated from 103 million

metric tons (mmt) in 1995 to 76 mmt in 1996, a 26-percent drop. Total world exports of grain

rose steadily from 243 to 262 mmt during crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00. As a result, the

U.S. share of world exports declined from 34 to 29 percent for wheat and from 68 to 54

percent for world coarse grain between crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00. Other competitive

exporters, Canada, Australia, the EU, Argentina, and China, increased their shares of world

grain exports.

During 1995-99, overall conditions of competition in grain markets shifted from a “grain

boom” to a “grain glut,” characterized by low farm prices, high inventories, and farmers under

financial stress. 

Globally ending inventories of grain rose by nearly 35 percent between crop-years 1995/96

and 1999/00 as world wheat and corn prices each dropped by nearly 50 percent, and world

grain trade and production rose 8 percent each. The United States as the world’s leading grain

exporter has been particularly affected, although higher expenditures for U.S. Government

farm safety-net programs have mitigated some of the adverse domestic effects.

The retrenchment of key Asian grain markets during the period 1996-98, and the shift in

China from a net importer to a major net exporter of grain contributed to the world grain

glut. Except for Mexico, most leading U.S. markets purchased less grain (in value terms)

during the period 1995-99. 

During the period, there have been sharp trade policy differences between the United States

and Canada over wheat and barley. The differences affect phytosanitary requirements,

operations of the Canadian state trading corporation (the Canadian Wheat Board), and

licensing. The United States imposed a 1-year tariff rate quota on U.S. imports of wheat (most

of which came then from Canada) in crop-years 1994/95 because the imports were

undercutting USDA farm support operations. In 1998, the governors of five Northern states

used state powers to detain and block trucks carrying Canadian wheat. The United States and

Canada then reached a record of understanding (ROU) in December 1998, ending these

individual State actions, and liberalizing certain Canadian regulations barring or impeding

U.S. exports of wheat. The following is a brief description of the key cereals cited in this

report.
 

3

 The 1999 crop was grown during crop-years 1999/00; U.S. crop-years run from June 1 to

May 31.

 

4

 Defined in 21 CFR 137.320.

 

5

 According to Webster’s New World Dictionary, “gluten is a gray, sticky, nutritious protein

substance containing gliadin, found in wheat and other grains; it gives dough its tough, elastic

quality.” Gluten is also extracted from wheat, and sold commercially to wheat millers for

blending with low-protein flour.

8

Wheat

Wheat (genus Triticum), the seed of an annual cereal grass, is the leading food grain of the

temperate climatic regions of the world; among U.S. grains, wheat ranked second only to corn

in terms of value of production (table A-1). Wheat is generally categorized as hard or soft

wheat on the basis of kernel characteristics. In addition, wheat varieties are distinguished

depending on when the wheat is planted: spring or fall. Winter wheat is sown in the fall and

starts growing before cold weather halts activity. After lying dormant during the winter, the

wheat plants resume growth in the spring. Spring wheat is sown in the spring as soon as the

ground can be worked, and grows until harvested. The composition of the 1999 U.S. wheat

crop, according to USDA data, was as follows:3

Classes

Percentage

of U.S. 

wheat crop

Hard red winter ............ 46

Hard red spring ............ 19

Soft red winter ............. 20

White .................... 11

Durum ................... 4

 Total ................... 100

Durum Wheat

Durum wheat is a hard wheat, grown mainly in the spring, and is generally milled into a

coarser meal (called semolina) rather than a flour. Durum’s principal applications are in the

production of semolina, a meal used for making macaroni, spaghetti, vermicelli, and similar

pasta products.4

Hard Wheat

Hard wheat has a kernel that is high in protein and gluten content.5 It is produced in areas with

hot summers and moderate rainfall. The flour made from hard wheat readily absorbs water

and produces an elastic and tenacious dough well suited to commercial bread baking. Wheat

cereal breakfast foods to be prepared by the consumer, such as farina, are also generally made

from hard wheat. The principal classes of hard wheat grown in the United States are Hard Red

Winter wheat and Hard Red Spring wheat. Hard White wheat is a hard wheat grown in small

commercial volume in the United States.
 

6

 Special grades may be further provided to emphasize special qualities or conditions affecting

the value of wheat. Special grades are added to and made a part of the USDA grade designation,

but do not affect the numerical grade designation. The protein level (as a percentage of the total

grain weight) may be used to distinguish a special grade.

 

7

 Walter Heid, Economic Research Service (ERS), USDA, U.S. Wheat Industry, Aug. 1979,

p. 13.

9

Soft Wheat

Soft wheat has a kernel relatively low in protein content, and is grown in areas of abundant

rainfall and moderate temperature. The flour made from soft wheat is used primarily for

baking cakes, crackers, biscuits, and pastry. Prepared breakfast foods, such as wheat flakes,

are made from soft wheat. Soft Red Winter wheat is the leading soft wheat, and Soft White

wheat the second-leading soft wheat.

USDA Standards

USDA recognizes eight classes of wheat: Hard Red Winter, Hard Red Spring, Soft Red

Winter, Soft White, Durum, Hard White, Unclassed, and Mixed wheat. The classes Hard Red

Spring wheat, Soft White wheat, and Durum wheat are further divided into subclasses. There

are no other subclasses.

Each class and subclass is divided into five U.S. numerical grades and U.S. Sample grade,

with grade No. 1 being the highest quality and Sample grade the lowest. The five USDA

numerical grades are distinguished by test weight per bushel, and the percentage of damaged

kernels, foreign material, shrunken and broken kernels, defects, and wheat of other classes.6

Protein content levels are frequently specified in contracts in both domestic and international

transactions for U.S. wheat. Millers and bakers usually need specific and constant protein

levels, depending on their customers’ needs. The protein level of wheat produced varies greatly

depending on growing conditions.7 In years when the protein level in either the Hard Red

Winter wheat crop or the Hard Red Spring wheat crop is lower than normal, flour millers

frequently purchase the other hard class to “blend-up” the average protein level of the flour.

The price premium that millers pay (the “protein premium”) can be quite high in years when

the overall protein level of the wheat crop is low. After receiving the wheat, millers typically

perform their own quality tests, and may blend wheats together before milling in order to meet

customer specifications.

Uses

These five primary U.S. wheat classes vary considerably in the end uses to which they are put.
 

8 The Wheat Grower: Wheat Facts, 1998, p. 9, and Joy Harwood, Mack Leath, and Walter

Heid, USDA, ERS, The U.S. Milling and Baking Industries, Dec. 1989, p. 17.

10

In general, all wheat (with the exception of wheat grown expressly for seed for planting) is

planted with the expectation that it will end up being milled and used in food, although often

an eighth or more of each year’s crop ends up being fed to livestock. Therefore, desirable

milling qualities strongly influence wheat characteristics. The primary uses of these five wheat

classes are shown below:8

Classes Qualitative factors Primary food use

Hard Red Winter ...... Good milling and baking

characteristics, wide range of

protein levels

All flours, but primarily bread flour,

blended with weaker wheats for

bread flour, whole wheat breads

Soft White ........... Low protein Breakfast cereals, noodles,

crackers, donuts, layer cakes, foam

cakes

Soft Red Winter ....... Low protein Flour for cakes, pastries, quick

breads, crackers, snack foods

Hard Red Spring ...... Excellent protein level and

milling qualities

All flours, primarily bread flour,

white bakers’ bread and rolls

Durum .............. Highest protein level Semolina for pasta products

There is a high degree of substitution between Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter,

depending on the protein levels.

In the United States, most wheat is milled into flour and meal and further processed to make

products for human consumption. Wheat is also used in significant quantities for seeding and

as livestock feed, and in small amounts for the manufacture of starch, gluten, and some

industrial products. The “feed and residual” use of wheat has been quite volatile, with animal

feeding of wheat rising during years when wheat quality is low, or when large crops render

wheat feeding cost-competitive to such alternative feedgrains as sorghum or corn.

Corn

Corn or maize (corn Zea mays, L.) is the most important grain produced in the United States,

in terms of acreage planted, quantity produced, and value of production (table A-1). There are

many types and varieties of corn that differ greatly in growth and grain characteristics. Corn

is a warm weather plant, but various strains have adapted to wide ranges of climate. Some

strains grow less than 2 feet tall and mature in 60 to 70 days; others grow more than 20 feet

tall and need more than 300 days to mature.

The grain kernel is the part of the plant normally used for food and feed. However, parts of

the entire above-ground plant often are used for animal forage or ensilage, and the immature

ears and kernels of certain types of corn are used as vegetables. Corn ensilage and vegetable

corn (sweet corn on the cob, canned sweet corn, and so forth) are not included in this
11

summary. There are seven corn groups or types, based on kernel characteristics–dent, flint,

flour, sweet, pop, waxy, and pod corns.

Dent corn is by far the most important type of corn produced in the United States. Dent corn

kernels have a dent or depression in the kernel crown as a result of shrinkage of the deposit

of soft starch at the crown during ripening. The soft starch is surrounded on the sides by hard

(horny) starch which shrinks less than the soft starch. Unless otherwise specified, the term

“corn,” as used in this summary, refers to “yellow dent corn.”

Other types of corn have been developed with specific characteristics, such as high-lysine corn

or high-oil corn. In addition, genetically modified types, such as “BT-corn” (described later

under “Research and Development”), have also been developed, especially during the past 5

years. Popcorn, a specialty dent corn, is discussed separately below.

In the United States, corn is used principally as a feedgrain. For such use, it is suitable for all

classes of farm animals. It is lower in protein content than most other feedgrains, but has a

higher total digestible nutrient content, and is the standard to which other feed grains are

compared.

Large quantities of corn are used by the wet-milling industry in the production of starch,

dextrine, adhesives, and corn sweeteners. The recent commercial development of new

processes to produce high-fructose corn syrup-U.S. usage, which has captured a significant

share of the market for sweeteners in liquid products (particularly soft drinks), has led to a

rapid increase in corn usage by wet millers.

Sorghum

Grain sorghum (or “milo”) is a cereal grass having broad cornlike leaves and a tall pithy stem

bearing the grain in a dense terminal cluster. The principal value of sorghum in the United

States is as a feed for livestock; sorghum ranks as the fourth-leading U.S. grain in terms of

value (table A-1). Sorghum has about 95 percent of the feeding value of corn, on a pound-forpound basis. Small amounts of sorghum may be milled into starch, made into alcohol, or used

for seed. Some grain, stalks, and leaves are fed to livestock as silage or forage. Although

sorghum in the United States plays a negligible role in the human food chain, it is consumed

extensively by the peoples of Asia and Africa, in the form of bread, porridge, and in the

manufacture of an alcoholic beverage similar to beer.
 

9

 USITC, See Industry and Trade Summary on Milled Grains, Malts, and Starches, USITC

publication 3095, Mar. 1998.

 

10 USITC, See Industry and Trade Summary on Animal Feeds, USITC publication 3275, Jan.

2000.

12

Rice

Rice is the primary food for more than one-half of the world’s population, and the thirdleading grain produced in the United States, in terms of the value of output in recent years

(table A-1). The major use for rice is directly as food, and secondarily in the United States,

as a constituent in the production of beer.

Paddy or rough rice is the term used for rice after is has been threshed, but before the hulls

have been removed. Most paddy rice is milled for food or industrial use; relatively little is

utilized as seed or feed.

Brown rice is rough or paddy rice from which the hull has been removed but which retains the

bran layers and most of the germ. Basmati rice is an aromatic, long-grain brown variety

grown principally in Pakistan and domestically in small quantities in Texas. Basmati rice is

considered a premium grade of rice and sells at prices above those of other types of brown or

white rice. Other types of brown rice, whether long, medium or short grain, have grown in

popularity in the United States as a result of rising consumer nutritional awareness. However,

brown rice consumption in recent years represented only about 1 percent of total food use of

rice.

Most brown rice is further processed to remove the bran layers and the germ and is then

known as milled, polished, or cleaned rice. Milled rice is usually coated with glucose,

vitamins, and talc to produce common enriched white rice. This is the most popular form of

rice ordinarily marketed in the United States for food.

Production of parboiled or converted rice occurs when rough rice is soaked in water, steamed

under pressure, dried, and then milled in the usual manner. All rice used in soups and similar

processed preparations is parboiled. Milled rice that is further cooked or boiled is known as

instant or precooked rice.

In the milling process, some of the kernels are broken, resulting in several grades of rice. In

the terminology of the trade, head rice is that which consists mostly of whole kernels; second

heads comprise the largest pieces of broken kernels; screenings are the next smaller sized

pieces; and brewers’ rice are the smallest pieces of broken kernels. Head rice is usually boiled

for consumption as a table food. It is also used in various breakfast food products. Broken rice

kernels are used as food for livestock, in making fermented beverages, and as a source of

starch and flour. In the production of beer, brewers’ rice is a malt adjunct (or additive) used

principally to produce a more durable beer retaining its desired qualities longer, and a beer

lighter or cleaner in color than that brewed from other grains.

This summary excludes certain milled rice products classified under HS chapter 11, such as

rice flour and meal (HS subheadings 1102.30.00 and 1103.14.00).9 Byproducts and

wastes of rice milling, such as rice bran, polish, and hulls, are used primarily as animal feeds

and not covered in this report.10
13

Oats

Oats are the seed of an annual cereal grass, and are used largely as feed for livestock. Oats

are the sixth-leading grain in the United States (table A-1). Oats are also used for seed, and

in the manufacture of breakfast foods and of flours. During crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00,

an average of 64 percent of domestically consumed oats were used in feed, 32 percent in food,

alcohol, and industrial use, and 5 percent as seed.

Milled oat products are contained in a separate summary. Milled oat products fit for human

consumption include rolled oats and hulled oats. After being hulled, white oats are either

steamed and rolled into thin flakes, called rolled oats, or ground into oatmeal and oat flour.

Barley

Barley is the seed of an annual grass. During the years 1995-99, it was the fifth-leading grain

crop produced in the United States, by value, behind corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum (table A1).

The major use (49 percent of average consumption from crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00) for

barley is as feed for livestock. Barley is interchangable, to some degree, with other grains such

as corn, sorghum, and wheat as a livestock feed. About one-half the barley used as feed is

consumed on the farms on which it is grown and the remainder, used by feed manufacturers

or livestock feeders, is purchased from other farms.

The second-leading use (47 percent of 5-year average consumption between 1995/96 and

1999/00) of barley is in making malt, which consists of good-quality grain germinated under

controlled conditions and then dried. It is then separated from the sprouts (which are used as

an animal feed). The malt, which looks identical to barley, has a distinctive odor and flavor;

it contains an enzyme (diastase) capable of converting starch to sugar. Malt is used principally

in making beer and distilled alcoholic beverages. Other uses include nonalcoholic beverages

and beverage preparations, breakfast foods, candy, and other food preparations.
 

11 P.R. Carter, D.R. Hicks, et al., “Popcorn,” Alternative Field Crops Manual, University of

Wisconsin-Extension, found at http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/afcm/popcorn.html,

retrieved Feb. 2, 2000.

14

Barley malt is usually produced in the United States and Canada from six-row barley; in

Europe it is generally made from two-row barley. The barley head, or spike, consists of a

zigzag stem (rachis) with groups of three kernels (spikelets) arranged alternately on opposite

sides of the rachis. In six-row varieties all three spikelets at each rachis joint are fertile,

whereas in the two-row varieties only the central spikelet develops. Malt made from six-row

varieties is preferred by most U.S. brewers because of its higher diastatic power, which allows

the use of more malt adjuncts (usually corn grits or brewers’ rice) in the manufacture of beer

and distilled alcoholic beverages. European malt has a higher extraction rate (i.e., it yields

more sugar from the malted grain) then U.S. malt.

In addition to its use as livestock feed and as malt, barley is milled into edible and inedible

products. Some barley is kept for seed. The principal milled barley food products are pearl

barley and barley flour. Barley that has simply been ground, rolled, or flaked is used almost

exclusively as livestock feed and is considered unfit for human consumption.

Specialty Grains

Buckwheat

Buckwheat is a herbaceous plant, whose seeds are used as bird feed, ground into flour, or

made into groats, i.e., hulled kernels. Buckwheat groats are used in soups, gravies, and in

ethnic dishes such as kasha (an Eastern European dish). Buckwheat flour, usually mixed with

wheat or corn flour and a leavening substance, is used for the preparation of pancakes.

Buckwheat flour is also mixed with other flours to produce a cereal breakfast food. In Japan,

buckwheat is used for the manufacture of noodles; the Japanese also manufacture a liqueur

from buckwheat.

Industry sources indicate that domestically about 95 percent of buckwheat is used in food:

70 percent is made into groats, and 25 percent into flour. Buckwheat is rarely used for animal

feed; some buckwheat is used in wild bird feed.

Popcorn

Popcorn is a type of flint corn originally cultivated by Native Americans hundreds of years

before Europeans arrived in the Americas.11 Popping results from rapid expansion of moisture

in individual starch particles as the popcorn is heated, followed by a sudden release of the

resulting pressure as the kernel bursts. The popped corn may be up to 35 times the volume of

the original popcorn. Popcorn is sold either as a plain or flavor-added product, in moistureproof containers ranging from plastic bags and glass jars to ready-to-use packages for

microwave ovens.
 

12 Government of Saskatchwuan, Farmfacts: Canary seed in Saskatchwuan, Mar. 1996, found

at http://www.agr.sk.ca/saf/farmfact, retrieved May 5, 1999.

 

13 See the Industry and Trade Summary on Milled Grains, Malts and Starch, USITC

publication 3095, Mar. 1998, and on Animal Feeds, USITC publication 3275, Jan. 2000.

15

Canary seed

Canary seed is the seed of an annual grass (Phalaris canariensis); the seed is used solely as

a feed component, alone or in mixtures, for caged or wild birds.12 However, the plant also

serves a very valuable function in forming good sod in poorly drained areas because it can

stand in water a relatively long period of time. The growing season is from late spring to July,

if cut for forage, or to August, if grown for seed.

Canary seed is grown principally on fallowed wheat land in the Dakotas and Montana and in

poorly drained areas. The U.S. production of canary seed varies from year to year, based on

growers’ needs in terms of sod formation, and based on prospects for monetary return relative

to that of other crops. Canary seed production is most often a minor part of a growers’ total

operation. The seed varies in quality according to size, gloss, hardness of the seed coat, and

percentage of foreign material. Canary is sold in bulk or in bags; it is then typically blended

with millet, safflower, flaxseed, and/or canola to produce commercial bird feed.

Rye

Rye is a widely cultivated cereal grass, the seeds of which are used for making flour and

whiskey. Rye is also used as a livestock feed. In many parts of the world rye is an important

bread grain because of its adaptability to poorer soils and cooler climates. In the United

States, about two-fifths of the acreage planted to rye is harvested for the grain. The remainder

of the crop is used either for pasture, as silage, or as a winter cover crop (particularly in the

Southern States). The bulk of U.S. rye is harvested in the Great Plains States.

Rye grain is used in the United States primarily in milling and for the manufacture of distilled

spirits. It is also used for seeding and as a feedgrain. The bulk of imported ryes are used for

making whiskey and for milling into flour. Rye grain for use as feed is often ground because

animals can utilize it more efficiently in that form. This report does not include the byproducts

or wastes resulting from the milling of rye, or milled rye products for human consumption,

such as rye flour and rye meal.13 Rye is generally milled into the following flour types:

Type Color Grind

White flour ......... White Fine

Medium flour ....... Light grayish-brown Medium

Dark flour ......... Light grayish-brown Coarse
 

14 E.A. Oelk, et. al., “Wild Rice,” Alternative Field Crops Manual, University of WisconsinExtension, found at http://www.hort.edu/newcrop/afcm/wildrice.html, retrieved Feb. 2, 2000.

 

15 USDA, Office of Pest Management, Policy Crop Profile for Wild Rice in Minnesota,

prepared Jan. 2000, found at http://cipm.ncsu.edu/cropprofiles, retrieved Feb. 2, 2000.

 

16 Ibid.

 

17 E.A. Oelk, et. al., “Wild Rice,” Alternative Field Crops Manual, University of WisconsinExtension, found at http://www.hort.edu/newcrop/afcm/wildrice.html, retrieved Feb. 2, 2000.

 

18 E.A. Oelke, et. al., “Millets,” Alternative Field Crops Manual, University of WisconsinExtension, found at http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/afcm/millet.html, retrieved Feb. 2,

2000.

16

Wild Rice

Wild rice is a native North American cereal, grown principally in the United States and

Canada. Wild rice (of the genus Zizania) is not a true rice, but an annual marsh grass that is

cultivated or grown wild in shallow, fresh-water lakes and streams. Traditional harvesting of

natural wild rice has been done from boats or canoes (canoe-and-flail method).

Development of more shatter-resistant wild rice allowed mechanical harvesting and

encouraged more production in the 1960s and 1970s.14 Commercial production of wild rice

in paddies, and mechanical harvesting, is mainly practiced in Minnesota and California.15 In

paddy rice production, wild rice is planted and flooded, with the water level controlled, which

results in a larger portion of the crop maturing at the same time. It is then mechanically

harvested. Wild rice is typically grown in a paddy for 5 years, and then rotated with other,

nonflooded crops, such as potatoes, oats or barley.16

After harvest, the wild rice is taken to a processing plant, where it is cured, or fermented from

4 to 5 days. The browned kernel is then parched (dried). Parching loosens the hulls and gives

the grain a roasted flavor; the wild rice is then cleaned and hulled, exposing the shiny black

seeds. One hundred pounds of unprocessed wild rice yields 40 pounds of processed grain.17

Wild rice is used primarily in mixtures with brown rice, as a stuffing for fowl, and/or as a

separate dish served with meat. It is occasionally used alone. Other minor uses are as a

breakfast cereal and in pancake mixes; it is usually a specialty dish or delicacy.

Millet

Millet is one of the oldest cultivated crops of the world, the term “millet” applying to various

grass crops whose seeds are harvested for food or feed. There are five millet species of

commercial importance–proso, foxtail, barnyard, browntop, and pearl.18 Proso millet

(Panicum miliaceum L.) and foxtail millet (Setaria italica L.) are the dominant millets grown

in the United States. Proso millet is a feed component for wild and domestic birdseed, with the

large seeds preferred for premium priced caged birdseed. Proso millet is fed to livestock in

similar ways as oats and barley. Foxtail millet is usually grown for hay or silage.
 

19 E.A. Oelke, et. al., “Triticale,” Alternative Field Crops Manual, University of WisconsinExtension, and University of Minnesota, Extension Service, found at

http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/afcm/triticale.html,retrieved Feb. 3, 2000.

 

20 E.S. Oplinger, et. al., “Spelt,” Alternative Field Crops Manual, University of WisconsinExtension, and University of Minnesota, Extension Service, found at

http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/afcm/spelt.html, retrieved Feb. 3, 2000.

 

21 G.F. Stallknecht, et. al., “Alternative Wheat Cereals as Food Grains,” in Progress in New

Crops, J. Janick, editor, 1996, found at

http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/proceedings1996/V3-156html, retrieved Feb. 3, 2000.

17

Triticale

Triticale is a crop species resulting from a cross between wheat (Triticum) and rye (Secale),

hence the name triticale (Triticale hexaploide L.). Plant breeders in the United States and

Canada developed commercial varieties of triticale, and up to 250,000 acres were planted in

the 1960s in the United States, but a lack of markets abated commercial interest and plantings.

Most triticale planted in the United States is used as a feedgrain, particularly in the Western

States, or as a forage crop grown in the winter in Southern States for grazing.19

Emmer and Spelt

Emmer (Triticum dicococon Schrank) and spelt (Triticum spelta L.) are subspecies of

common wheat that have been grown in Europe for hundreds of years, and were introduced

into the United States in the 1890s.20 Emmer is a member of the subspecies of wheat that

includes durum wheat. Emmer is similar to oats, and is planted in the spring in the United

States for use as a feedgrain, replacing either oats or barley. Little or no emmer is used

presently in food products in the United States, according to Stallknecht.21

Many of the same species of spelt have been planted in the United States since the 1900s,

although in the 1990s advanced spelt cultivars with better milling and food use characteristics

were introduced in the United States. Ground spelt is mainly used as an alternative feedgrain

to oats and barley. After dehulling, ground spelt can be used in pasta or high-fiber breakfast

cereals or in flour or baked goods to replace soft red winter wheat flour. Spelt products are

available through organic health food outlets as grain, whole grain, and white flours, and in

processed products such as pasta, cold and hot cereals, and pre-packaged bread and muffin

mixes. 
 

22 U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1997 Census of Agriculture, vol. 1, part 51, Mar. 1999.

 

23 The U.S. Department of Commerce reported in 1992 under SIC classification 011, that

there were 405,000 “cash grain farms,” with 245 million acres owned and 159 million acres of

harvested cropland. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau, 1992 Census of Agriculture, vol.1.

pt. 51, table 18. 

18

U.S. INDUSTRY PROFILE

Industry Structure

The number of U.S. grain producing entities declined by 2.1 percent annually from about

1,078,000 in 1992 to 867,000 in 1997 (the only years for which official U.S. data are

available) (table A-2). However, adding together the separate grain farms sharply inflates the

actual number of farms since many produce several grains. Excluding these double-counted

farms, USDA reported that the total number of grain and oilseed farms (under NAICS

category 1111) was 463,000 in 1997, with 180 million harvested acres out of 285 million

acres owned.22 The average grain and oilseed farm thus harvested about 389 acres of these

crops; no data were reported for earlier years.23

In 1997, there were 431,000 corn farms, 244,000 wheat farms, 90,000 oats farms, 49,000

sorghum farms, and 42,000 barley farms (table A-2). Similarly, there were 9,000 rice farms,

and about 12,000 farms producing specialty grains, the leading ones being millet, popcorn,

and rye (table A-3).

Corn

Corn is the leading grain, accounting for about two-thirds of the 1999 value of domestic

production of grain (table A-1), and 49 percent of the harvested acreage of the leading grain

crops (table A-4). In 1997, the average U.S. corn farmer harvested 162 acres of corn. Small

farms (those with fewer than 250 acres of corn) supplied 33 percent of U.S. corn production

in 1997 (table A-2); medium-sized farms (ranging in size from 250 to 1,000 acres each)

accounted for 52 percent of U.S. corn output in 1997. The largest corn farms (with over 1,000

acres each) produced 15 percent of the output in that year.

Corn is grown in commercial quantities is most States; however, 5 states (Iowa, Illinois,

Nebraska, Minnesota, and Indiana) accounted for 64 percent of the 1999 crop, and the top-10

corn producing states accounted for 84 percent of corn production (table A-5). The Corn-Belt

States and adjacent Great Plains States (Kansas) dominate corn production, in part because

of their favorable rainfall and soils. Corn is typically grown in rotation with soybeans or

wheat in a complementary pattern; farms in the Corn Belt States have gradually become twocrop producers of corn and soybeans, and occasionally soft wheat. In addition, hog operations

on cash grain farms have been sharply curtailed as hog and cattle production has shifted to

large, concentrated animal feed operations. Corn farms also grow other grains, such as

sorghum or oats, depending on rainfall and soil types.
19

Wheat

Wheat, the second-leading cereal, accounted for 23 percent of the 1999 value of domestic

grain production (table A-1), and 38 percent of the harvested grain acreage (table A-4). In

1997, the average U.S. wheat farm harvested 241 acres of wheat; as with corn, the small

farms (each with fewer than 250 acres) supplied 24 percent of U.S. wheat production in 1997

(table A-2). The larger farms (with over 500 acres) accounted for 58 percent of U.S. wheat

production.

Wheat is grown mainly in the Great Plains, the Northern Tier along the Canadian border, and

in the Pacific Northwest, although some Corn Belt states have significant wheat production

as well (table A-6). The top six states (Kansas, North Dakota, Montana, Oklahoma,

Washington, and Texas) accounted for more than half of U.S. wheat production during

1995/96 to 1999/00. The Great Plains States (Kansas) and The Northern Tier States (North

Dakota, Montana, Idaho, and Washington) dominate U.S. wheat production, due to their

favorable climate, soil types, and ease of tillage. The planting of wheat is typically rotated

with that of other cereals (particularly oats and barley), certain oilseeds (such as sunflower

seed, canola, or soybeans) in order to reduce insect and plant disease problems, and improve

soil conservation.

Rice

Rice is the third-leading cereal, accounting for 5 percent of the 1999 value of domestic

production (table A-1), and 3 percent of the harvested acreage (table A-4). In 1997, the

average U.S. rice farm harvested 347 acres of rice; medium-sized farms (of 250 to 1,000

acres each) supplied 61 percent of production (table A-2).

Rice is grown mainly along the States bordering the lower Mississippi River and the Gulf of

Mexico, and in California; six States (Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas,

and Missouri) account for virtually all commercial rice production in the United States (table

A-7). Arkansas and California accounted for about two-thirds of production between cropyears 1995/96 and 1999/00. Because most rice is irrigated in the United States, access to

irrigation water and a relatively warm climate favor rice production in those States. Rice

farms do produce other crops, soybeans for example.

Sorghum

Sorghum, the fourth-leading cereal, accounted for 4 percent of the 1999 value of domestic

grain production (table A-1), and 6 percent of the harvested acreage (table A-4). In 1997, the

average U.S. sorghum farmer harvested 173 acres of sorghum. Small farms (fewer than 250

acres) supplied 40 percent of the sorghum production in 1997 (table A-2). Kansas, Texas, and

Nebraska dominate the production of sorghum, accounting for 81 percent of U.S. production

in 1999 (table A-8). Sorghum’s resistance to variable rainfall makes it a more resilient

feedgrain than corn in these states.
 

24 E.A. Oelke, et. al., “Triticale,” Alternative Field Crops Manual, University of

Wisconsin=Extension, and University of Minnesota, Extension Services, found at

http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/afcm/triticale.html, retrieved Feb. 3, 2000. There are not

official U.S. Government data reported on triticale.

20

Oats and barley

Barley and oats are the fifth- and sixth-leading grains in the United States (table A-1). Both

crops are grown in rotation with wheat in the Northern Tier States (North Dakota, Montana,

Idaho, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota). In 1997, the average U.S. oats

farm harvested 30 acres of oats, and the average barley farm harvested 142 acres of barley

(table A-2). Oats are mainly a small-farm crop, with 89 percent of the output grown on farms

with fewer than 250 acres; barley production more closely follows the pattern for wheat, with

62 percent of U.S. barley grown on farms of 250 or more acres (table A-2).

Oats and barley are primarily grown for use as feedgrains, although most producers also sell

a portion of their crop for higher value use as food-grade oats or malting barley, if the crop

attains that level of quality. Historically, oats and barley were important rotational crops for

wheat (for soil conservation and to break disease cycles), and as feed crops for farm animals

(draft horses). 

Specialty grains

All of the specialty grains (millet, rye, popcorn, buckwheat, wild rice, triticale, emmer, and

spelt) were grown on a combined 11,640 farms on about 1 million acres in 1997 (table A-3).

Millet is the leading specialty grain, followed by rye, and popcorn. Average acreage harvested

per farm for these grains was 91 acres per farm. Millet is grown chiefly in South Dakota,

Colorado, and New Mexico, which together supplied 94 percent of the 1997 production. The

second-leading specialty grain, rye, is widely dispersed throughout the United States:

Oklahoma, Georgia, South Dakota, Michigan, and Minnesota were the top five suppliers with

a 30 percent share of the 1997 output.

Popcorn, the third-leading specialty crop, is grown mainly in Nebraska, Indiana, Illinois, and

Ohio, which together supplied 71 percent of 1997 production. The average popcorn farm had

144 harvested acres in that year (table A-3).

Buckwheat was grown on fewer than 500 farms in 1997, most of which were in the Dakotas,

Minnesota, Washington, and New York. Another specialty grain, triticale, is grown mostly

in wheat-growing areas of the Southwest, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico. Emmer and spelt

are grown mostly on small farms in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Triticale is grown on

a few thousand acres mostly in the Western Plains States; some triticale is planted as a winter

forage crop in certain Southern States.24
 

25 USDA, ERS, Costs of Producing–Major Field Crops, 1998. In 1998, total cash expenses for

wheat were estimated at $68 per acre with hired labor costing $5.40 per acre; for corn, total

expenses were $158/acre with $3.19/acre for hired labor. Unpaid labor was valued at $31 per acre

for corn and $11 per acre for wheat.

 

26 Rice farming had an estimated per acre cash expense in 1998 of $38, and total expenses of

$350. Unpaid labor in rice production was valued at $30 per acre. Source: USDA, ERS, Ibid.

 

27 USDA, 1997 Census of Agriculture, vol. 1, pt. 51, p. 63.

 

28 Ibid.

 

29 USDA, ERS, Wheat: Background for 1995 Farm Legislation, Apr. 1995, app. table 1; 

Feed Grains: Background for 1995 Farm Legislation, Apr.l 1995, app. table 1; and Rice:

Background for 1995 Farm Legislation, Apr. 1995, app. table 1. 

21

Employment

Data on total employment in the U.S. cereals industry are not available because the farm labor

used to produce these crops typically produces a variety of other field crops or livestock at the

same time. A considerable amount of actual farm labor is “unpaid” farm labor of farm family

members. As indicated previously, there were a reported 463,000 farms (generally each with

at least one farmer) in 1997. In addition to their own labor, farmers also employ hired labor,

either seasonally or permanently, to aid in planting, harvesting, cultivating or applying farm

chemicals. Hired labor is used relatively infrequently in corn production, for example,

accounting in 1998 for 2 percent of cash expense in producing corn. However, hired labor

costs are more important for wheat farming, accounting for about 8 percent of the cash cost

of wheat production in 1998.25 The USDA indicates that for rice, hired labor is even more

important, accounting for 11 percent of 1998 cash farm production expenses.26

Labor Intensity, Skill Levels, Level of Productivity

Farm labor involves a multitude of mechanical, horticultural, and managerial skills. For most

grain farmers, economic returns can be attributed to their own labor, managerial abilities,

returns on capital (such as machinery) and land, as well as returns on risk taking. The growing

of each grain is a relatively land-intensive and capital-intensive activity that has become, over

the past several decades, a highly mechanized operation in the United States.

Most grain farmers operate as sole or family proprietors (owning the land they farm).

Production patterns for the $47 billion worth of total U.S. cash grain and oilseed sales in 1997

are as follows: 68 percent from owner-operated individual or family farms, 18 percent from

partnership operations, and 14 percent from corporations.27 Most farmers are full or part

owners of the land they farm. In 1997, 71 percent of harvested cropland was owned by the

farmer or farm family, 16 percent in a partnership, and the remaining 12 percent by a

corporation (94 percent of these being family-owned corporations).28

In grain farming, a commonly accepted measure of productivity is the crop yield. In the United

States, grain yields on a per-acre basis have generally increased during the past several

decades because of better cultivation, chemical application, and plant varieties. Wheat yields

rose by 44 percent from an average 27.5 bushels per acre during 1965-6929 to an average 39.5

bushels during 1995-99 (table A-4). There was a 64-percent yield gain for corn from 78.5

bushels per acre during 1965-69 to 128.7 bushels per acre in 1995-99. Yield gains for rice
 

30 For further elaboration, see Robert Oehrtman and L.D. Schnake, “Marketing Channels and

Storage,” Grain Marketing (Gail Cramer and Eric Wailes, editors), 1993, pp. 61-120.

 

31 Data of the Assoc. of American Railroads, and the Interstate Commerce Commission,

quoted in, “BNSF-CN Deal Brings Rail Mergers Front and Center,” Feedstuffs, Mar. 18, 2000, 

p. 1.

22

rose by 34 percent from 4,370 hundredweight per acre to 5,843 hundredweight per acre,

respectively.

However, annual crop yields vary widely since weather is a key factor in year-to-year

changes. During 1995-99, corn yields fluctuated from 122 bushels per acre in 1996 to 134

bushels per acre in 1998, a 10-percent variation (table A-4). Nonetheless, weather conditions

were generally good in the United States during the years 1995-99, and this was reflected in

the excellent average yields.

Vertical and Horizontal Integration

Grain farmers, as indicated above, are numerous and decentralized, with the majority of

farmers either full or part owners of a single farm. There is little direct foreign ownership of

U.S. farms, and few U.S. farmers operate abroad.

As a way to obtain higher prices and to more efficiently market their grain, many farmers have

formed or joined cooperatives. Cooperatives provide various services for their members,

including marketing crops to elevators and mills. Cooperatives also own and operate wheat

and rice mills. By acting as the sole agent for many farmers at once, cooperatives may be able

to obtain greater bargaining leverage for farmers. Cooperatives play an important role in the

marketing of soybeans and grain, accounting for over one-third of all such farm-level

marketing, and a significant share of exports.

Marketing and Pricing Practices

The important factors that characterize the marketing of grain are first, the uniformity of the

products themselves (within a grade and type); second, the importance of foreign markets;

third, the involvement in export trade by a relatively small number of companies; and fourth,

the importance of transportation in marketing channels used by grain farmers (as shown in

figure 2). Farmers can either market their crops to export markets or sell to U.S. mills or feed

operations.

Grain is a bulk, largely homogeneous, fungible commodity for which price is often an

overriding factor in the purchase decision. Within U.S. regions, prices differ by the cost of

transport (mostly rail or river barge) to common market areas, such as an export terminal (the

“basis”).30 Rail is the dominant mode of transportation of grain from primary grain

elevators to end users, there being seven major railroads (so-called “Class I”) carrying grain

in the United States in 1999.31
 

32 See United States of America (U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ)), Plaintiff, v. Cargill,

Incorporated and Continental Grain Company, defendants, Competitive Impact Statement, Case

No. 1:99CV01875, July 23, 1999, found at www.usdoj.gov/atr/cases/f2500/2584.htm, retrieved

Aug. 9, 1999, p. 3.

 

33 The cited U.S. Department of Justice in a 1999 antitrust case involving the merger of two of

the largest U.S. grain-trading companies defined four separate U.S. geographic regions as “draw”

areas.

 

34 “Merging Two Grain Giants,” World Grain, Jan. 1999, p. 30; and Marvin Hayenga and

Robert Wisner, “Study Evaluated Cargill’s Purchase of Continental Grain’s Grain Business,”

Feedstuffs, Feb. 8, 1999, p. 1.

 

35 Ibid., table 2. 

 

36 Ibid., table 4. 

 

37 Joy Harwood and Craig Jagger, “Agriculture’s Safety Net,” Choices, 4h qtr. 1999, p. 59; 

USDA, ERS, and Joy Harwood, et al., Managing Risk in Farming, ERS Ag. Econ. Rep. 774,

Mar. 1999.

23

As a bulk product, U.S. grain prices are heavily dependent on the transportation and graintrading sector. Because the transportation of grain is relatively costly and time-consuming,

farmers generally sell their grain within a limited geographic area surrounding their farms,

usually to a country elevator, although farmers located near a river, rail or port elevator

sometimes bypass the country elevator and ship their grain directly to an export terminal or

subterminal.32 Farmers market their crops to competitive grain elevators located within a

“draw area.”33

Grain trading is also concentrated among a relatively few companies in the United States and

abroad. The merger of Cargill and Continental Grain Co.’s grain operations in 1999 created

the largest U.S. grain company, with nearly 15.5 million tons of licensed storage capacity in

318 U.S. locations.34 The storage capacity of the 10-largest U.S. grain elevator, milling and

processing companies in 1999 totaled 2.2 billion bushels of which Cargill/Continental had a

29-percent share, and the second largest company, ADM, had a 28-percent share.35 Three

farm cooperatives, Farmland Grain Division, Cenex Harvest State Cooperative, and Riceland

Foods, together accounted for about 19 percent of this storage capacity in 1999. With regard

to concentration of sales of U.S. grain exports in 1999, the four-leading firms accounted for

81 percent of U.S. corn exports, and 47 percent of U.S. wheat exports, according to USDA

data.36

Farmers have three basic price strategies available to them: a forward cash contract, in which

quantity and price arrangements are made prior to delivery from the field or storage facility;

a cash market under which a given quantity is sold for immediate delivery at the current

market price; and a price-later contract, which provides for immediate delivery but at a price

to be determined at a later date. In 1996, 60 percent of U.S. producers with sales of $250,000

or more used forward contracts and about 45 percent used future or options, according to a

USDA survey.37

Prices for future delivery may be based either on the current cash-market or futures-market

price quoted by the Chicago Board of Trade, depending on the particular arrangement. Most

U.S. farmers typically deliver slightly over half of their crop immediately after harvest to an

off-farm location, such as a grain elevator or mill, and store the remaining crop on-farm for

marketing during the following winter or spring.
 

38 USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS), Provisions of the Federal Agriculture

Improvement and Reform Act (FAIR) of 1996, bulletin No. 729, Sept. 1996, pp. 9-12.

 

39 Ibid., p. ii.

 

40 The 1999 appropriation Act included as well $1.4 billion in disaster relief (including

$200 million for livestock producers); total 1999 spending for farm support was an additional

$8.7 billion. Office of Chief Economist, USDA, USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to

2009, Feb. 2000, pp. 32-33.

 

41 In 1999, about 550 farms reached the maximum amount of total benefits under the

program.

24

U.S. Government Programs

U.S. farm programs are extensive and complex. This section summarizes the key provisions

of the support program and highlights those provisions that are believed to influence U.S.

grain production significantly, especially the loan program. Another U.S. Government

program, that affects U.S. exports of grain, is the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA)

export program summarized below.

U.S. grain farmers have the option of placing their crop as collateral for USDA loans, called

nonrecourse loans, which can be redeemed by the farmer prior to maturity with funds from

the market sale of the product.38 If market prices are below the loan repayment rate, the farmer

may default on the loan obligation and forfeit the product that then becomes Government

property, or repay the loan at the prevailing world market price. If market prices exceed loan

rates, a farmer can sell the product, pay off the loan and interest, and retain the difference.

The farmer may also agree not to exercise the loan option and receive a “loan deficiency

payment (LDP),” the difference between the current market price and the USDA fixed loan

rate.

The Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act (FAIR) of 1996 was signed into law

in April 1996.39 The FAIR Act provides fixed payments no longer linked to current planting,

farm prices, or the volume of the crops produced; these payments are called Production

Flexibility Contract (PFC) payments. The Act allows participating farmers planting

flexibility, the marketing assistance loans (nonrecouse loans) including LDPs explained above,

and environmental/conservation provisions. Under the FAIR Act, total PFC payments for

grain amounted to $5.5 billion in 1999 (table A-11). 

Thereafter, Congress separately provided for emergency and disaster relief under the Omnibus

Consolidated and Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act of Fiscal Year 1999 and the

Appropriations Act of Fiscal Year 2000, which increased the PFC payments as well as made

direct relief grants to affected farmers. Congress provided $2.4 billion for crop loss assistance

under the 1999 Appropriations Act,40 and in the Appropriations Act of 2000, an additional

$5.5 billion to double the PFC payments. In the 2000 act, Congress also doubled the amount

a single farm operation can receive from crop subsidies from $150,000 

to $300,000, meaning that with PFC payments, a single farm operation could receive up to

$460,000.41
 

42 USDA, ERS, Provisions of the FAIR Act, Sept. 1996, p. 5.

 

43 USDA, Office of the Chief Economist, USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2009,

Feb. 1999, p. 24.

 

44 USDA, ERS, Provisions of the FAIR Act, Sept. 1996.

 

45 Ibid.

25

Production flexibility contract payments (PFC)

To be eligible for this voluntary program, farmers must have enrolled in a production

flexibility contract (PFC) for the 1996-2002 period during the one-time enrollment held in

1996. Eligible contract acreage must either have been included in the prior USDA acreage

reduction program for at least one out of the last five crops, or have been “considered

planted.” An owner or producer who entered into a contract may subsequently reduce, but not

add to, the quantity of contract acreage covered by the contract.42 Except for fruits and

vegetables, any commodity or crop may be planted on contract acreage on a farm. The

planting for harvest of fruits and vegetables (other than lentils, mung beans, and dry peas) is

prohibited on contract acreage, except in a few situations.

Annual payments are made no later than September 30 of each of fiscal years 1996 to 2002.

During FY 1997 to 2002, 50 percent of the annual payment can be made at the option of the

owner or producer on December 15 or January 15 of the fiscal year. The marketing assistance

loan rates and the PFC payment rates are shown in table A-12 (in dollars per hundredweight),

as compiled from official statistics of USDA.

In the 1999 Appropriations Act, Congress further provided $2.9 billion for market loss

assistance (MLA) payments to be paid in FY 1999 to farmers eligible for PFC payments in

FY 1998.43 These MLA payments were proportional to the 1998 PFC payments and were

equivalent to slightly less than 50 percent of the PFC payments. 

Marketing assistance

Farmers may repay the nonrecourse loan plus interest anytime prior to maturity and then sell

the pledged crop or forfeit the collateral to the government as full payment within the 9-month

loan period.44 The loan repayment rate will be lower than the loan rate plus interest when the

posted country price or PCP (for wheat, and feedgrains) or the prevailing world market price

(for rice) is below the loan rate. When a farmer repays the loan rate at this lower rate, the

difference between the original loan rate and the repayment is called a “marketing loan gain”

(any accrued interest is waived). The loan program thereby provides an “effective” price floor

at the loan rate for farmers eligible to place their crops under loan, but does not establish a

floor for actual market prices since grain can enter the market at prices below the loan rate.

In those cases when the PCP or prevailing world market price is below the loan rate, eligible

producers may opt for a loan deficiency payment (LDP) instead of taking out a nonrecourse

loan.45 The LDP is the difference between the PCP and the loan rate. Once the LDP is paid,

the crop cannot later go under the loan program. A producer may immediately sell the crop

and receive the LDP, effectively receiving the equivalent revenue of the loan rate.

Although loan rates were established in 1996 at levels then well below prevailing market
 

46 Mitchell Morehart et al., USDA, ERS, “U.S. Farm Income Decline in 2000 to be Tempered

by Government Payments,” Agricultural Outlook, Jan.-Feb. 2000, pp. 6-8.

 

47 The 1998 crop as affected in fiscal year 1999. Paul Westcott, “Ag Policy: Marketing Loan

Benefits Supplement Market Revenues for Farmers,” Agricultural Outlook, Dec. 1999, p. 4, data

through Nov. 17, 1999.

 

48 USDA, ERS, Feed Outlook, Dec. 14, 1999, p. 3, found at ers@jan.mannlib.cornell.edu,

received Dec. 14, 1999. The average loan value was $1.84/bushel for corn, $1.71/bushel for

sorghum, $1.69 for barley, and $1.08 for oats. 

 

49 USDA, ERS, Wheat Outlook, Dec. 14, 1999, p. 2, found at ers@jan.mannlib.cornell.edu,

received Dec. 14, 1999.

26

prices, the sharp decline in market prices to levels at or below the loan rates has accelerated

the importance of the LDPs and the nonrecourse loans. During crop-years 1995/96 to

1997/98, season average prices received by farmers were well above the loan rates for the

respective grains, but by crop-years 1998/99, market prices fell below the loan rates,

triggering the LDPs for most farmers. The LDP essentially functions as the so-called

“deficiency payment” did under the 1990 FACT Act, supporting farm income, but not the

market price.46 For the 1998 crop (the most recent crop for which data are available), USDA

indicated that the marketing loan gains and the LDPs added between 1 and 12 percent to the

average season prices farmers received for their 1998 crop:47

Item

Season

average

price

Marketing

loan

 benefit1

Average perunit revenueCommodit

y loan rate

Ratio of

marketing

benefit to

average price

–––––––––– Dollar (per bushel) –––––––––– Percentage

Wheat ..... 2.65 0.19 2.84 2.58 7

Corn ...... 1.95 .14 2.09 1.89 7

Sorghum ... 1.70 .12 1.82 1.74 7

Barley ..... 1.98 .23 2.21 1.56 12

Oats ...... 1.10 .12 1.22 1.11 11

––––––––––– Dollar (per cwt) –––––––––––––

Rice ....... 8.83 0.07 8.90 6.50 1

1

 Weighted average benefit per unit, based on the portions of the crop receiving marketing

loan gains, loan deficiency payments, and no benefits.

Total LDPs on grain totaled $2.4 billion on December 13, 1999. Producers collected

$1.4 billion in LDPs covering $4.7 billion bushels of corn (49 percent of the 1999 crop),

$115 million on sorghum (covering 62 percent of the 1999 crop), $32 million on barley

(covering 60 percent of the 1999 crop), and $25 million on oats (covering 73 percent of the

1999 crop).48 Wheat producers had outstanding loans in mid-December 1999 on 107 million

bushels of wheat, with loans totaling $274 million ($2.57 per bushel), while wheat LDPs

totaled $851 million on 8.1 billion bushels (77 percent of the 1999 crop).49
 

50 USDA, ERS, Provisions of the FAIR Act, Sept. 1996, pp. 11-12.

 

51 In 1999/2000, the enrolled CRP acreage (in millions of acres) was as follows: wheat, 9.8;

corn 4.0; upland cotton 1.1; sorghum 1.3; barley, 0.8; oats, 0.5; soybeans 3.2; fallow 3.4; and

other cropping pattern 7.0. Source: USDA, Office of Chief Economist, op. cit. Feb. 1999, p. 32.

 

52 USDA, ERS, “Provisions of the 1996 Farm Bill—the Federal Agriculture Improvement and

Reform (FAIR) Act,” Agriculture Outlook, Apr. 1996, p. 15, and USDA, Farmline, July 1991, 

p. 4.

 

53 USDA, ERS, “Provisions of the 1996 Farm Bill—the Federal Agriculture Improvement and

Reform (FAIR) Act,” Agricultural Outlook, Apr. 1996, p. 15; and USDA, Office of Chief

Economist, p. 29.

 

54 USDA, Office of Public Affairs, “USDA Changes Payment Mechanism for EEP and DEIP,”

Nov. 6, 1991.

 

55 Karen Ackerman and Mark Smith, USDA, ERS, Commercial Export Assistance, May

1993; and “The Export Enhancement Program,” Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports, May 27,

1993.

27

Conservation reserve program

The 1996 FAIR Act also provided a wide range of environmental and conservation programs

for U.S. grain producers, the two most important provisions being the Conservation Reserve

Program (CRP) and the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP). The CRP was

continued from the 1990 Act, and provided for a maximum of 36.4 million acres of

environmentally sensitive land to be withdrawn from production, under a voluntary agreement

between the owner and USDA for a 5-year period.50 In crop-years 1999/2000, there was a

total of 31.1 million acres enrolled under the CRP, about 10 million acres being formerly

planted in wheat, and 4 million acres formerly in corn.51 The EQIP provides for technical,

education and cost-share assistance and payments to crop and livestock producers to protect

soil and water resources, with half of the $1.3 billion fund going to crop producers and half

to livestock producers.

Export Enhancement Program

Congress created the Export Enhancement Program (EEP) in 1985 under the 1985 Farm Bill

and then amended it in the 1990 Farm Bill, the 1994 Uruguay Round Agreements Act, and

the 1996 FAIR Act. The purpose of the EEP program was initially to allow U.S. agricultural

exporters to lower their export prices in selected markets characterized by unfair competition,

particularly from the European Union (EU), and since 1996, to encourage market development

abroad.52 Although USDA has chosen not to provide EEP bonuses for grain exports in recent

years, total EEP expenditures for all agricultural exports up to $579 million are allowed in

FY 2000.53

Exporters receive bonuses that allow them to reduce the price of the U.S. agricultural product

in the designated foreign market.54 Since the program’s inception, the vast majority 

of EEP sales have been of wheat, followed by feedgrains (barley), wheat flour, and vegetable

oil.55

However, from August 1995 through the end of fiscal year 1999, USDA paid no EEP bonuses

for grain and milled grain product exports, except for a 25,000 metric ton sale of barley in
 

56 USDA, ERS, Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook, Mar. 1997, p. 13; and USDA, Office

of Chief Economist, USDA Agricultural Baseline Project to 2008, Feb. 1999, p. 29, and USDA,

Outlook for U.S. Agriculture Exports, Aug. 28, 1998, p. 11.

 

57 USDA, ERS, Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook, Mar. 1997, p. 13.

 

58 Under Section 416 (b) of the 1949 Agriculture Act.

 

59 ERS, USDA, Provisions of the FAIR Act, Sept. 1996, p. 108.

 

60 FAS, USDA, “GSM Credit Guarantee System Report No. MJB712,” Feb. 3, 2000.

28

fiscal year 1998.56 EEP assistance had previously been available for a wide variety of grain

and milled grain products, including wheat and wheat flour, rice, barley, malting barley, and

barley malt. In August 1995, EEP bonuses were halted as higher world prices for wheat and

wheat flour and lower EU export restitutions (subsidies) made these bonuses unnecessary.57

Export credit guarantee and U.S. food aid programs

USDA also provides a guarantee of private credit used to finance the purchase of U.S. grain

and other eligible agriculture products, and administers programs to donate grain and other

agricultural products abroad for relief or humanitarian assistance under Public Law 480, the

World Food Program, and the Food Aid Initiative (section 416 exports).58 The GSM-102

(Export Credit Guarantee Program) provides credit for loans of up to 3 years, and the GSM103 (Intermediate Export Credit Guarantee Program) provides credit for loans of 3 to 10

years in duration. Credit guarantee programs focus on maintaining U.S. sales levels abroad

by assisting U.S. exporters with sales in countries with foreign exchange constraints.59

In recent years, Mexico, Korea, the Pacific Rim, and other developing regions have been the

leading markets for U.S. grain exports under the credit guarantee program. In fiscal year

1999, the export credit guarantee program covered $2.8 billion of U.S. agricultural, fishery

and forest products of which $1.4 billion was grain, according to USDA data.60 The GSM102 and GSM-103 programs covered 13 MMT of U.S. grain exports, valued at $1.4 billion

in FY 1999:

FY 1999 FY 1995 

Type of grain Quantity Value Quantity Value

1,000 metric

tons

Million dollars

1,000

 metric

tons Million dollars

Rice .......... 346 90 345 77

Sorghum ...... 1,234 116 1,564 172

Wheat ........ 3,900 482 4,214 654

White corn ..... 772 99 239 36

Yellow corn .... 6,635 608 4,262 438

 Total ........ 12,887 1,395 10,624 1,377

With U.S. grain exports of about $10 billion annually during 1998-99, U.S. grain exports

under the GSM programs thus accounted for about 14 percent of all grain exports in FY

1999. The value of grain exports under the GSM programs was about the same in FY 1995

and FY 1999, but the volume of grain exported rose by 21 percent.

U.S. food aid abroad includes grain as well as other foods such as milled grain products
 

61 Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA, “Planned U.S. Food Aid for FY 1995-99,” facsimile

transmission, Feb. 8, 2000.

 

62 Ibid.

 

63 USDA, Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports, Feb. 22, 1999, p. 12.

 

64 7 CFR 340: 340.1. See USDA, ERS, “Agricultural Biotechnology Concepts and

Definitions,” and “Genetically Engineered Crops for Pest Management,” found at

www.econ.ag.gov/whatsnew/issues/gmo/terms.htm, retrieved Nov. 24, 1999.

 

65 USDA, ERS, Feed Situation and Outlook Yearbook, Apr. 1999, p. 9.

 

66 Ibid., p. 4, and p. 9.

29

(wheat flour, corn soy blends, cornmeal), meat, dairy products, and oilseeds and oilseed

products (vegetable oil). In FY 1999, U.S. food aid totaled $2.5 billion, according to USDA.61

U.S. grain food aid (corn, rice, sorghum and wheat) during FY 1995-98 remained below $400

million annually, but then rose sharply to $995 million in FY 1999, as shown in the following

tabulation, compiled from official USDA data.62

Fiscal year

Value of

 U.S. grain aid Volume of U.S. grain aid

Million

dollars

Thousand

metric tons

1995 ...................... 367 2,365

1996 ...................... 330 1,496

1997 ...................... 313 1,860

1998 ...................... 352 2,345

1999 ...................... 995 7,036

The 7 MMT of U.S. grain aid exports in FY 1999 included 5.3 MMT of wheat. Food aid

exports represented about 10 percent of the value and 8 percent of the volume of U.S. exports

of grain in 1999. The large increase in food aid exports occurred under the Food Aid Initiative

begun in July 1998 when the United States donated approximately 5 MMT of wheat to

countries where food needs were greatest, including 1.5 MMT of wheat to Russia.63

Research and Development

During 1995-1999, without a doubt the most significant change in research and development

affecting the grain sector has been the development of genetically engineered (GM) crops with

input traits for pest management. USDA defines “genetic engineering,” as “the genetic

modification of organisms by recombinant DNA techniques.”64

The development and production of so-called Bacillus thurgineiensis (Bt)-corn in particular

has been widely reported and analyzed. Corn and other crops containing a gene derived from

the soil bacterium produce their own toxin that protects the entire plant against such pests as

the European corn borer.65 The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Environmental

Protection Agency (EPA), and the USDA authorized the commercial production and release

of certain GM corn in the mid 1990's. Since then, Bt corn has been planted on 25 million

acres, or about 35 percent of the 1999 U.S. crop.66 Similarly, GM soybeans and cotton have
 

67 “USDA and Biotechnology,” p. 6, retrieved from the worldwide web

www.aphis.usda.gov/biotechnology/faqs.html, Apr. 5, 2000; and “Remarks by Secretary of

Agriculture Dan Glickman, before the Advisory Committee on Biotechnology Opening Meeting,

Washington, DC - Mar. 29, 2000,” found at www.usda.gov/news/releases/2000/03/0103,

retrieved Apr. 5, 2000.

 

68 Marc Kaufman, “Biotech Crops Appear Safe, Panel Says,” Washington Post, Apr. 6, 2000,

p. A-10; and Paul Raeburn, “Biotech Foods Aren’t Out of the Woods Yet,” Business Week, Apr.

17, 2000, p. 56. 

 

69 Sarah Muirhead, “Survey Shows Majority of Elevators Plan to Accept Biotech Grain Next

Fall,” Feedstuff Feb. 21, 2000, p. 1.

 

70 ERS, USDA, Apr. 1999, p. 9.

30

also been approved in the United States, although acceptance in other countries, particularly

the EU and Japan (see later section on Trade Disputes), has not been universal.

The safety of GM crops has been sharply evaluated and scrutinized including the National

Academy of Science, but their acceptance has been questioned by European Governments and

U.S. consumer groups and members of Congress. U.S. regulation of GM crops is under

review at this time, including an independent scientific review of the USDA and EPA

biotechnology regulatory systems, and the creation of a USDA advisory committee on

biotechnology.67 A National Academy of Sciences panel concluded in April 2000 that there

is no scientific evidence that GMO crops are unsafe to eat, but that there are unresolved

scientific issues of potential risks arising from substances inadvertently transferred into

biotech crops that can cause allergic reactions, and the threat to the environment that may be

posed by the flow of spliced genes to other plant species.68

The opposition to GM crops has caused domestic grain traders to require the segregation of

GM crops from non-GM crops, particularly for those grain elevators or grain processors

exporting to the EU or Japan. In early 2000, about 18 percent of U.S. grain elevators

indicated they would not purchase GM corn and 12 percent would not purchase GM

soybeans.69 About 30 percent of elevators in the heart of the Corn Belt (Iowa, Illinois and

Indiana) planned to segregate GMO corn in 2000, according to the survey.

Seed breeders have also developed through conventional breeding methods specialty corn such

as high-oil corn, white corn, hard endosperm corn, waxy corn, and nutritionally dense corn.

This specialty corn is geared toward industrial and food uses, although some goes into animal

feed as well.70 A large portion of the high-oil and white corn is exported. USDA estimates that

less than 5 percent of the total U.S. corn acreage in 1998 was planted in specialty corn, which

also includes popcorn.
 

71 Industry and Trade Summary on Animal Feeds, USITC Publication 3275, Jan. 2000.

 

72 Industry and Trade Summary on Milled Grains, Malts, and Starches, USITC Publication

3095, Mar. 1995.

 

73 Average tons of feed concentrates during crop-years 1993/94 to 1997/98. Source: USDA,

ERS, Feed Yearbook, Apr. 1999, p. 105.

 

74 Ibid.

31

U.S. MARKET

Consumer Characteristics and Factors Affecting Demand

Characteristics of consumers or users

Grain is principally used in food or food products, as livestock feed, or for planting seed.

Secondary amounts are used industrially to make alcohol (industrial alcohol, beer, and

distilled spirits), starches, adhesives, and other inedible products. The three major categories

of grain are wheat corn and other feedgrains (coarse grains), and rice. Animal feed is

discussed in a recently published separate summary.71

Wheat markets are mainly driven by demand for food in the form of wheat flour (bread, baked

goods) and secondarily for semolina (in pasta). About 71 percent of the wheat consumed in

the United States during 1995/96 to 1999/00 was used in food products, about 22 percent in

feed, and 7 percent as seed (table A-13). Wheat use varies among the five major types of

wheat (durum, hard winter, hard spring, soft red, and white) (tables A-14-18). Wheat flour

millers are the major processors of wheat; other direct users are food companies, and

industrial users (wheat gluten and wheat starch). Direct competition with wheat by other

grains, except in feed use, is limited. For the most part, wheat is priced higher than other

grains. The milling sector is discussed in a separate summary.72 Feed use of wheat varies by

year depending on protein quality of the particular crop; during the 5 most recent crop-years,

wheat accounted for 4 percent of the average 199 million metric tons of U.S. feed

concentrates.73

Animal feed constitutes the principal market for corn, although demand for food products

(such as high-fructose corn syrup, corn oil, corn meal, and for brewing) impacts the corn

market. In the five most recent years for which data are available, approximately 75 percent

of corn consumption was for animal feed, 25 percent for food, alcohol and industrial uses, and

less than 1 percent for seed (table A-19). Corn is the preferred grain for most animal rations

(except for horses for which oats are preferred). Corn accounted, on average, for 65 percent

of livestock feed concentrates in the United States during the 5 most recent years for which

data are available.74

Popcorn, except for small amounts used for seed, is used exclusively for either home or

commercial preparation of popcorn (table A-20). Demand for popcorn has declined slightly

despite the emergence of microwave popcorn a decade ago. Demand for popcorn fell on a
 

75 Based on Commission staff adjustment of USDA data for 1996 and USDOC (U.S. Census)

data for 1992 (see table A-19). Resident U.S. population was estimated at 255 million in 1992

and 271 million in 1999 (Statistical Abstract of the United States).

 

76 Industry and Trade Summary on Milled Grains, Malts, and Starches, USITC publication

3095, Mar. 1995, table A-7, based on USDA official data.

 

77 USDA, ERS, Feed Yearbook, Apr. 1999, p. 105.

 

78 USDA, ERS, Rice Situation and Outlook Yearbook, Sept. 1998, appendix table 15. Total

direct food use includes imports that are mainly prepared rice.

32

per capita basis from 3.3 pounds in 1992 to 2.7 pounds in 1999, according to USDA and

Commerce data.75

The use of corn in the milling sector is discussed in the summary on milled grains cited

previously. In recent years, of the 1.8 billion bushels of corn used annually in the United

States in food and industrial products, about 31 percent was for high-fructose corn syrup

(HFCS), 27 percent for alcohol for fuel, 15 percent for glucose and dextrine for food, 14

percent for starch, 8 percent for breakfast cereal and other food, and the remainder (less than

6 percent) for alcohol for beverages (beer, whiskey, distilled spirits).76

The other feedgrains (sorghum, oats, and barley) are used mainly as animal feed although oats

and barley are in strong demand for certain food products (breakfast cereals and beer,

respectively) (table A-21-23). Sorghum supplied 5 percent, and barley and oats each about

2 percent of average volume of U.S. livestock feed concentrates during the 5 most recent

years.77

Over the five most recent crop years for which data are available, barley was consumed in the

following proportions: 49 percent as feed, 48 percent as malt, food and industrial products,

and the remainder as seed (table A-23). Similarly, most oats were consumed as animal feed

(64 percent of average U.S. consumption during 1995/96 to 1999/00), while 32 percent was

used in the production of food, alcohol, and industrial products (table A-21). Nearly 90

percent of average U.S. consumption of sorghum, the other leading domestic feedgrain, was

for animal feed during the 5 years ending 1999/00; there has been some increased use of

sorghum for industrial uses, alcohol, and food during this period (table A-22). Rye, another

miscellaneous grain, is mainly used in the distilled spirits industry (whiskey), and rye flour

milling, with the remainder used as animal feed and seed.

Rice markets in the United States and abroad are mainly oriented to the use of rice in food,

as rice’s high price relative to other grain precludes its inclusion in most feed rations. In the

United States during the 5 market years ending with 1999/00, an average of 76 percent of

annual rice consumption was directed toward food uses, while 14 percent was consumed as

an input by the brewery industry (table A-24). Approximately 4 percent of rice was used for

seed.

Direct food use by final consumers is considerably more important than the use of rice in

processed foods by food manufacturers. In 1996/97 (the latest crop-years for which data are

available), 63 percent of the 103 million hundredweight of milled rice consumed was used

directly by U.S. consumers, and 21 percent was used in processed foods, such as breakfast

cereals, soup, and package mixes.78
 

79 USDA, ERS, Rice Yearbook, Dec. 2, 1999, pp. 11-12.

 

80 See Industry and Trade Summary: Milled Grains, Malts, and Starches, USITC publication

3095, Mar. 1998, p. 24. Many also credit the population of the “food pyramid” “triangle”

increased U.S. consumption of grain products.

 

81 USDA, Agricultural Outlook, table 10, Dec. 1998 and Dec. 1999. Per capita annual U.S.

consumption of red meat and poultry rose from 210 pounds in 1995 to 221 pounds in 1999, while

egg consumption rose from 236 to 255. Of the 11-pound increase in red meat and poultry

consumption during these 5 years, 8 pounds was poultry meat.

 

82 USDA found the price elasticity for U.S. wheat demand historically to be relatively inelastic

(-0.35) with respect to its own price, and inelastic with respect to the price of corn and the other

feedgrains (+0.15 and +0.10, respectively). Walter Gardiner, Vernon Roningen, and Karen Liu,

Elasticities in the Trade Liberalization Database, USDA, ERS, May 1989, table 5. At the retail

level, the demand for wheat flour and the other milled grain products (considered food “staples”)

is even more price inelastic (-0.078), according Kuo S. Huang, A Complete System of U.S.

Demand for Food, USDA, ERS, Technical Bulletin No. 1821, Sept. 1993, table 3. The income

(expenditure) elasticity of demand for wheat flour is also inelastic (0.13), as compared to the

higher elasticities for fresh fruits and vegetables, meat and fish, and nonfood grocery items

(1.17), according to the 1993 study.

33

Factors influencing the demand for grain

Two separate food markets influence the demand for grain: milled grain products (such as

flour for bread), and meat products (meat, poultry, eggs, and dairy products). A higher

preference for milled grain products in the United States has increased per capita demand for

wheat, rice, and most other grain during the past decade, while population growth has added

to the total demand.

Changing U.S. demographic composition spurred grain consumption: For example, rice

demand was boosted by larger Asian and Hispanic segments within the U.S. population whose

per capita rice consumption far exceeds the U.S. average.79 Dietary changes raised per capita

wheat flour and semolina (pasta) consumption in the United States as well, prompted by

dietary preferences and changes in lifestyle.80 With increasing population in the United States,

total demand for milled grain products has risen consistently over the past 10 years, although

the rate of increase during the past 5 years has slowed somewhat from the trend in the early

1990s. 

Higher levels of domestic consumption of meat, poultry, eggs, and dairy products boosted

U.S. demand for feedgrain during 1995-99. Grain generally comprises two-thirds or more of

the volume of commercial feed rations for poultry and hogs. U.S. per capita and total

consumption of both meat and poultry rose during 1995-99: total consumption of all red meat

and poultry by 8 percent and per capita consumption by 5 percent,81 with most of the increase

attributed to increased poultry consumption.

Historically, U.S. demand for grain and milled grain products tends to be relatively price and

income inelastic.82 Per capita consumption of wheat and other cereals has been rising generally

over the past two decades, particularly for wheat, setting a record in 1997/98, mostly a result

of higher wheat flour consumption. Total wheat consumption in food rose slightly during

1998/99 to 1999/00. 
 

83 Walter Gardiner, Vernon Roningen, and Karen Liu, Elasticities in the Trade Liberalization

Database, USDA, ERS, May 1989, table 5.

 

84 Ibid.

 

85 At the retail level, the price elasticity of demand for rice is price inelastic (-0.067), and

similar to the price elasticity of demand for wheat flour and potatoes. The income (expenditure)

elasticity for rice at retail is inelastic (0.15), and similar to that for wheat flour (0.13). Kuo S.

Huang, A Complete System of U.S. Demand for Food, USDA, ERS, Technical Bulletin No. 1821,

Sept. 1993, table 3.

 

86 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Nov. 10, 1997, and June 9, 2000, total

use of grains. Total use rose by 39 mmt during the 5 years; a 30-mmt rise occurred from 1995/96

to 1996/97 as domestic production recovered from the drought in 1995/96.

34

The demand elasticity for U.S. corn was estimated to be inelastic (-0.21) with respect to the

corn price, and very inelastic (+0.04, and +0.05) with respect to the price of wheat and the

other feedgrains.83 Demand for corn is primarily a function of the supply and demand

conditions in livestock markets.

Demand in the United States for rice is also relatively price inelastic at the wholesale level

(-0.25) according to the USDA,84 although shifts in U.S. demographic composition and

changes in tastes have increased the demand for all types of rice, both domestic and imported,

over the past decade.85

Consumption

Trends and import-penetration levels

Apparent U.S. consumption of grain rose during the 5 years by18 percent to 253 million

metric tons (mmt) in 1999/00, according to USDA data.86 The import-penetration ratio for all

grain on a value basis averaged between 3 and 4 percent annually during 1995-99 (table A28). On a quantity basis, this ratio varied in 1999/00 by type: 60 percent of domestic oats

consumption, 8 percent of domestic barley consumption, 9 percent of domestic rice

consumption, 7 percent of wheat consumption, and negligible amounts (less than 0.5 percent)

of corn, sorghum and popcorn consumption (tables A-13 and A-19-24). The largest change

in the import penetration ratio was for oats which rose from 29 to 60 percent between 1995/96

and 1999/00 (table A-21). Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption also rose, from

6 percent to 7 percent, during this period (table A-13).

During the period, U.S. consumption of feedgrains rose substantially between 1995/96 and

1999/00. Apparent consumption of corn, the leading feedgrain, rose by 20 percent from 6.3

billion bushels to 7.6 billion bushels (table A-19) as production surged upward to a record

level in 1998/99 and low prices stimulated animal feeding. Consumption of barley and oats

declined during these 5 years (table A-21 and A-23), while that of sorghum rose (table A-22).

During this period, wheat consumption rose by 17 percent to 1,335 million bushels, with peak

consumption in 1998/99 (table A-13). The largest consumption gain among the five principal

types of wheat (Durum, hard winter, hard spring, soft red, and white) was for soft red wheat

(tables A-14 to A-18). Food use (milling) of wheat rose irregularly by 4 percent to 920 million

bushels in 1999/00 (table A-13).

Domestic rice consumption increased by 10 percent between crop-years 1995/96 and 1999/00.
 

87 USDA, ERS, Rice Yearbook, Dec. 2, 1999, pp. 11-12.

 

88 Nielsen, all measured retail outlets, quoted in, “General Mills Plans 2000 Earnings

Growth,” Milling and Baking News, Aug. 31, 1999, p. 16.

 

89 Office of Chief Economist, USDA, USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2009, Feb.

2000, pp.1-5 for a description of these factors in grain markets.

 

90 Office of Chief Economist, USDA, USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2009, Feb.

2000, pp. 1-5.

35

Consumption of rice in food rose by about 15 percent to 90 million hundredweight (table A24), with the largest increase occurring in consumption of long-grain rice (rather than medium

and short-grain rice) (tables A-25 and 26). Domestic brewers’ use of rice remained unchanged

because of the greater popularity of “lite beers,” (which are produced using other grains), little

or no growth in domestic beer output, and higher imports of beer.87

Popcorn consumption declined on a volume basis by 1 percent during the 5 years, to

743 million pounds in 1999 (table A-20). In 1999, U.S. retail sales of popcorn exceeded $2.7

billion, according to published industry estimates.88

Conditions of competition between foreign and U.S. grain

The key competitive factors in grain trade have been price, quality, transportation, stocks, and

costs of production. Government support policies (particularly in China, the EU, and the

United States) have also affected world trade as did the retrenchment of key Asian grain

markets during the Asian financial collapse in 1996-98.89 During 1995-99, overall conditions

of competition in grain markets have shifted from a “grain boom,” during the early to mid

1990s (characterized by high prices and short supplies), to a “grain glut” by the end of the

1990s (low prices and high inventories). World ending stocks rose by 36 percent between

crop-years 1995/96 and 1999/00, a shift reflected in the nearly 50-percent drop in world

wheat and corn export prices, and a 36-percent drop in world rice prices during the period

(table A-27). The effects of the grain glut may have also contributed, within the United States,

in part to the mergers of domestic grain merchants (described earlier), and to consolidation

of cash grain farms in the Midwest and Great Plains States.

World grain production from crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00 rose by about 8 percent, world

trade by 8 percent, total use by 6 percent, and ending world stocks by 35 percent (table A-27).

A price rise during the mid 1990s, and a shift in government policy in three key grain areas

(the United States, the EU and China) brought forth much larger production which was not

offset by rising consumption.90 This resulted in the burdensome inventories, and subsequent

adverse effects on U.S. grain farmers.
 

91 USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, and Grain: World Markets and

Trade, various editions.

 

92 The supply elasticity of corn with respect to its own price was found to be 0.48 in Walter

Gardiner, et al., USDA ERS, Elasticities in the Trade Liberalization Database, May 1989.

 

93 P.R. Carter and D.R. Hicks, “Popcorn,” Alternative Field Crops Annual, University of

Minnesota Extension Service and University of Wisconsin Extension, found at

www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/afcm/popcorn.html, retrieved Feb. 2, 2000.

36

Production

The value of U.S. grain production rose to nearly $40 billion in 1996, and then steadily

declined to about $26 billion in 1999, reflecting the influence of falling crop prices (table A1). On a volume basis, U.S. production and harvested acreage of grain followed a different

pattern, peaking in crop-years 1998/99 and 1996/97, respectively, as shown in the following

tabulation (as compiled from official statistics of the USDA):91

Crop year Production Harvested acreage Yield

Million metric tons Million hectares Metric ton/ hectares

1995/96 .......... 275 59 4.7

1996/97 .......... 333 65 5.1

1997/98 .......... 334 64 5.2

1998/99 .......... 347 61 5.7

1999/00 .......... 333 58 5.7

U.S. grain production rose by 21 percent, peaking in 1998/99; the harvested acreage

fluctuated, but remained flat during the 5 years, having peaked in 1996/97. A 6 millionhectare jump in acreage occurred in 1996 after passage of the FAIR Act eliminated acreage

controls on U.S. grain farmers, and the strong corn price in 1995/96 of $3.19 per bushel

elicited increased feedgrain acreage. The extremely favorable weather during this period is

reflected in the rising crop yields, that reached about 5.7 metric tons per hectare in 1999/00.

Corn

U.S. production of corn rose from a drought-affected level of 7.4 billion bushels in crop-years

1995/96 to 9.2 billion bushels in the following year, and then to 9.4 billion bushels in 1999/00

(table A-19). Corn yields rose from 114 bushels per acre in 1995/96 to a peak 135 bushels

per acre in 1999/00 (table A-5). After the sharp increase in 1996/97, the annual harvested

acreage in corn has varied little during the ensuing 3 crop-years, having remained within a

range of 71-73 million acres. Although the supply elasticity for U.S. corn production is

believed to be perfectly elastic in the long run, the 44-percent drop in prices from $3.24 to

$1.80 per bushel elicited only a small decline in planting.92

U.S. popcorn production declined by about 9 percent between 1995 and 1999 to 949 million

pounds (table A-20). Harvested popcorn acreage rose from 321,000 to 337,000 acres between

1992 and 1997, but the yield per acre dropped from 3,470 pounds to 2,955 (table A-3). Most

popcorn is grown under contract to a processor; the planted acreage is thus adjusted to

processors’ estimated annual needs.93
37

Wheat

U.S. production of wheat fluctuated between 2.2 billion and 2.5 billion bushels annually

between crop-years 1995/96 and 1999/00 as reduced acreage was offset by rising yields

(tables A-4 and A-13). Harvested wheat acreage peaked at 63 million acres in 1996 and 1997,

and then began a steady decline to 54 million acres in 1999. Meanwhile, favorable growing

conditions led to much higher yields, peaking at 43 bushels per acre in 1998. The decline in

wheat prices from $4.55 to $2.55 per bushel did reduce the acreage harvested, but higher

yields offset this effect on production levels.

Rice

U.S. rice production has risen more or less steadily by 21 percent between crop-years 1995/96

and 1999/00, from 174 million hundredweight to 211 million hundredweight (table A-24). A

16-percent increase in harvested acreage accounted for most of the production increase as

annual yield tends to be more stable for rice than other field crops because most rice is

irrigated. Farm rice prices peaked in crop-year 1996/97 at $9.96 per cwt, and remained high

through 1997/98, when they began to fall sharply to a projected $6 per cwt in 1999/00 (table

A-24).

Sorghum

Sorghum production followed a pattern similar to the leading feedgrain (corn), peaking in

1996/97 at 795 million bushels (tables A-1 and 22). The sorghum price fell steadily during

the 5-year period from 1995 to 1999, and harvested acreage declined from 12 million acres

in 1996/97 to 8.5 million acres in 1999/00 (table A-8).

Barley, oats, and specialty grain

Barley and oats production dropped during the period as did production of most specialty

grains (buckwheat, emmer and spelt, popcorn, proso millet, rye, triticale, and wild rice).

Barley production dropped as smaller acreage harvested was somewhat offset by higher yields

(tables A-4 and 23). Barley production is closely related to that of wheat so that declining

wheat planting frequently lowers barley output. Barley prices dropped at the farm level by

29 percent between 1995/96 and 1999/00 (table A-23). Oats production declined by

10 percent in the period and harvested acreage by17 percent (tables A-4 and 21). 

U.S. production of specialty grain generally declined during 1992-97 (table A-3). In terms of

the volume of production, popcorn and rye production fell, and millet production rose.

Production of the other grains (buckwheat, emmer and spelt, triticale, and wild rice) were all

lower.
 

94 See Gene Hasha, ERS, USDA, “U.S.-Canada Wheat Trade the Intersection of Geography

and Economics,” Agricultural Outlook, June-July 1999, pp. 9-14.

38

U.S. TRADE

Overview (U.S. Trade Balance)

During 1995-99, the U.S. trade surplus in cereals dropped by nearly one-third, from

$14 billion in 1995 to $9 billion in 1999 (table A-29). During 1995-99, U.S. exports declined

by 31 percent to $10.1 billion, and U.S. imports remained steady at about $0.7 billion (table

A-30). The volume of U.S. exports of grains declined by 13 percent, in line with the decline

in the value of such exports (table A-31).

During 1995-99, U.S. grain imports rose from $685 million in 1995 to $984 million in 1997,

and then fell to $731 million in 1999 (table A-32). Canada supplied about 73 percent of

imports, Thailand about 15 percent, and the EU about 5 percent.

Japan was the leading foreign market for U.S. grain during 1995-99 (table A-30). Mexico was

the only leading market for U.S. grain that expanded during 1995-99. There were sharp

contractions in Korea, Egypt, Taiwan and EU grain purchases, and China virtually

disappeared as a U.S. grain market of note.

U.S. Imports

Principal suppliers and import levels

The sources and composition of U.S. grain imports during 1995-99 are shown in tables A-32

and A-33. About 37 percent of the value of imports in 1999 consisted of wheat; 22 percent

was rice, 20 percent was oats (mostly food-grade oats), and 11 percent was barley (table A35). The remaining products included mostly corn and rye.

During 1995-99, the value of U.S. grain imports peaked in 1997, and then retreated, reaching

$731 million in 1999, only 7 percent above the level in 1995 (table A-32). A large jump in

imports occurred in 1997 when wheat imports rose to $354 million. In that year, buoyant

domestic feed and wheat mill demand and high domestic prices stimulated imports.94 Then in

1998-99, lower U.S. prices and more abundant domestic stocks lowered wheat imports to

$272 million in 1999.

U.S. rice imports rose by more than one-half from $120 million in 1995 to $185 million in

1999, as the volume of rice rose by 58 percent to 353,000 metric tons in 1999 from 223,00

mt in 1995 (tables A-33 and A-35). The buoyant demand for aromatic rice (Basmati and Thai

rice) in the United States led to the increased rice imports.
 

95 This provision is required under the provisions of the NAFTA Act.

39

The value of U.S. imports of oats peaked in 1997, and then declined in 1998 and 1999 as

lower prices offset the higher volume of imports. U.S. imports of oats began to rise in the

early 1990s, particularly from Canada and the EU; falling U.S. oat production encouraged

large EU shipments of food-grade oats. For 1995-99, the volume of U.S. oats imports rose

by 9 percent to 1,653,000 metric tons (table A-33).

Canada, Thailand, and the EU, the three leading suppliers, accounted for approximately

94 percent of U.S. grain imports during 1995-99 (table A-32). Canada has been by far the

leading U.S. grain supplier with an average 73 percent share during the 5 years.

Canada supplied chiefly wheat, oats, and barley to the United States during 1995-99, with

over half of its exports being wheat. U.S. grain imports from Canada rose sharply until 1997,

but then fell back below the 1995 level by 1999 (to $490 million).

The second leading supplier, Thailand, supplied chiefly rice to the United States. The value

of imports of Thai grains similarly peaked in 1997, and then fell back in 1998 and 1999 to 30

percent above the 1995 level.

The EU countries supplied chiefly oats (81 percent of 1999 imports), and prepared rice

(7 percent). U.S. grain imports from the EU rose irregularly from $26 million to $49 million

during 1995-99.

U.S. trade measures

Tariff and nontariff measures

Table A-36 shows the column 1 rates of duty, as of January 1, 2000, for the articles included

in this summary (including both general and special rates of duty) and for U.S. exports and

imports for 1999. The aggregate trade-weighted average rate of duty for all products covered

in this summary, based on 1999 imports, was 0.7 percent ad valorem equivalent; the average

trade-weighted rate of duty for the dutiable products was 2.7 percent ad valorem equivalent.

About 74 percent of the $731 million of imports included here were duty-free in 1999. On

January 1, 1994, the United States, Canada, and Mexico implemented the North American

Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

There were no identified significant nontariff measures (NTMs) or sanitary and phytosantiary

measures (SPS) affecting U.S. imports of grains during the period. However, there have been

bilateral disputes over SPS and licensing measures with Canada (as elaborated below); since

1995, the United States has required certificates of origin on imports of Canadian wheat and

barley since Canada also required this on similar U.S. exports to Canada.95
 

96 See for example, “U.S., Canada Clash on Market Access, Wheat Board Pricing Audit,”

Inside U.S. Trade, Apr. 3, 1998.

 

97 See for example,”U.S. farmers block Canadian farm goods at the border, “ Reuters, Sept.

22, 1998; William Clairborne, “Blockades Challenge Trade With Canada,” Washington Post,

Sept. 25, 1998, p. A-3; and Courtney Tower, “Range war with Canada may end up at the WTO,”

Journal of Commerce, Sept. 28, 1998.

 

98 Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), “USTR, USDA Announce Series

of New Measures to Open Canadian Farm Markets,” press release No. 98-107, Dec. 4, 1998.

40

U.S. Government trade-related investigations

During 1993-94, at the request of the President, the Commission conducted an investigation

under section 22(a) of the Agriculture Adjustment Act (7 U.S.C. 624(a)) to determine whether

wheat classified in HTS heading 1001, wheat flour classified in HTS heading 1101, and

semolina classified in HTS subheading 1103.11.00 are being or are practically certain to be

imported into the United States under such conditions and in such quantities as to materially

interfere with the price support, payment, and production adjustment program conducted by

USDA. The Commission reported its findings to the President in July 1994. Subsequently, the

President imposed tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on all wheat imports (all of which came from

Canada) into the United States from September 1994 through September 1995. The TRQs

expired on September 11, 1995, but monitoring of Canadian wheat continued.

After the expiration of the wheat quota, there continued to be bilateral differences over wheat,

barley, and oats trade between the United States and Canada. There are also differences over

the operations of the Canadian Wheat Board over its pricing of Canadian wheat in the U.S.

market, over Canadian phytosanitary requirements and end-use requirements for U.S. wheat

and barley access to the Canadian market.96

As a result, in 1998, the governors of five States (Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South

Dakota, and Idaho) used State inspectors and highway patrols to detain and block trucks

carrying Canadian wheat and livestock entering their respective States.97 In September 1998,

Canada held bilateral negotiations with the United States under NAFTA and the WTO,

arguing that the States’ actions violated those agreements.

In December 1998, the United States and Canada reached an agreement, a “Record of

Understanding,” (ROU) regarding various aspects of agricultural trade between the two

countries.98 The ROU covered livestock, grain and potatoes and provided that:

• U.S. farmers from Montana and North Dakota could ship grain directly to Canadian grain

elevators with few regulatory obstacles;

• Canadian testing for karnal bunt would be eliminated for U.S. wheat from the 14 U.S.

States deemed free of that disease;

• Rail shipments of U.S. grain would be accepted for transshipment through Canada;

• Canada would provide exports sales forecasts and quarterly export levels to allow the

United States to monitor imports of Canadian grain, and scrutinize Canadian pricing

practices in the U.S. market. 

The ROU also provided for an advisory group of U.S. and Canadian growers and State and
 

99 USDA, FAS, Canada’s Progress Report: ROU on Agricultural Trade, 1999, U.S. Embassy,

Ottawa, Dec. 14, 1999.

41

Provincial authorities to meet and provide advice to the two countries on livestock and grain

trade. 

In 1999 as part of the ROU, Canada further liberalized its phytosanitary regulations by

making three U.S. States (Montana, Minnesota, and North Dakota) eligible for certificates of

origin for 550,000 metric tons of wheat, oats, and barley transshipped on Canadian rail either

back to the United States or abroad.99 The Canadian Government permitted 29 licensed

primary grain elevators in Western Canada to handle U.S. wheat purchased directly from U.S.

farmers. On April 1, 1999, Canada eliminated testing for the presence of karnal bunt in each

individual export shipment of U.S. wheat from the 14 states free of that plant disease.

U.S. Exports

Principal markets and export levels

During 1995-99, foreign markets purchased 35 percent of the value of U.S. production of

grain (table A-28). U.S. grain exports fell by 31 percent from $15 billion to $10 billion in the

period. In 1999, the composition of U.S. exports of grain consisted almost solely of corn (49

percent by value), wheat (35 percent), rice (9 percent), and sorghum (5 percent) (table A-34).

Barley and the combined specialty grains together provided less than two percent of the value

of 1999 U.S. grain exports. Corn is even more important in terms of export volume: U.S. corn

supplied 58 percent of the 90 MMT of U.S. grain exports in 1999; wheat 32 percent; sorghum

6 percent; and rice 3 percent (table A-31).

The importance of foreign markets to domestic grain varies by type: for wheat, 46 percent of

the volume of U.S. wheat production during 1995/96 to 1999/00 was exported (table A-13).

Exports accounted for 21 percent of U.S. corn production during the 5 years, whereas 45

percent of U.S. rice and 34 percent of sorghum production was exported (tables A-19, A-24,

and A-22). For the specialty grains, relatively little oats and barley were exported (1 and 13

percent of U.S. production tables A-21 and A-23), as contrasted to almost one-quarter of U.S.

popcorn output during 1995-99 being exported (table A-20). Buckwheat exports represented

about 44 percent of U.S. production in 1997 (tables A-3 and A-31).

Corn

U.S. corn exports peaked in 1996 at $8.5 billion, and then declined to about $5.0 billion in

1999 (table A-34). On a volume basis, U.S. corn exports during 1995-99 peaked in 1995 at

60 million metric tons (MMT), and then declined to 41MMT during 1997-98, before

recovering to 52 MMT in 1999 (table A-37). The top five markets, Japan, Korea, Mexico,

Taiwan, and Egypt purchased about two-thirds of average U.S. corn exports during 1995-99
42

(table A-37). Mexico was the only major market to increase its purchases of U.S. corn during

the 5 years, whereas most of the other top markets decreased their purchases.

U.S. corn exports to Korea fell by $0.7 billion from $1.3 billion in 1996 to $0.6 billion in

1999, while corn exports to Taiwan fell by $0.5 billion during that same time. U.S. corn

exports to the EU plummeted from $435 million to $19 million during 1995-99 owing in part

to GMO corn barriers, and to weaker EU feed markets.

Another weak market for U.S. corn during this period was China where U.S. exports dropped

from $629 million in 1995 to about $16 million in 1999, a drop of over $600 million (table

A-37). A sharp policy reversal in Chinese trade policy shifted China from being a net importer

of corn to being a substantial net corn exporter during this period.

Wheat

A similar trend for U.S. wheat exports occurred as exports peaked in 1996 at $6.3 billion, and

then steadily declined to $3.6 billion in 1999 (table A-38); the volume of U.S. wheat exports

fell from 32 MMT in 1995 to 28 MMT in 1999. The five leading markets for U.S. wheat were

Egypt, Japan, the Philippines, Mexico, and Korea, which together purchased 41 percent the

value of U.S. wheat exports during 1995-99. Each of the five leading markets except Mexico

purchased less U.S. wheat each year between 1995 and 1999. Similar to corn, China’s

purchases of U.S. wheat slipped from $500 million in 1995 to less than $33 million in 1999

(table A-38) as Chinese imports of wheat from all countries plummeted. Meanwhile, U.S.

wheat exports to the EU more than doubled from 0.6 MMT to 1.4 MMT during 1995-99,

making the EU the sixth leading U.S. wheat market in 1999.

Rice

U.S. rice exports averaged about $1 billion annually during 1995-99, and peaked at $1.2

billion in 1998 because of a jump in sales of U.S. rough (unmilled) rice to drought-impacted

Latin American rice producing countries (table A-39). With the return to more normal

growing conditions in those rice producing countries, 1999 U.S. exports of rice, at $944

million, in 1999 were slightly below the 1995 level. On a volume basis, the trend was similar,

with annual U.S. rice exports increasing from 3.3 MMT in 1994 to 3.7 MMT in 1998, and

then falling back in 1999 to about 2.9 MMT (table A-39). U.S. rice exporters briefly enjoyed

a surge in sales because the United States exports rough or unprocessed rice, unlike the

principal exporter, Thailand, which exports processed rice. Rice-producing countries facing

a shortfall often import rough rice to keep their rice mills operating.

 The EU, Japan, Mexico, Canada, and Haiti were the leading markets for U.S. rice during

1995-99, accounting for 44 percent of the value of U.S. rice exports. Japan’s opening of its

rice markets under the WTO provided substantially more market opportunities as U.S. rice

exports rose almost four-fold by $113 million in 1995-99. The second-leading market the EU

purchased $123 million in 1999, a rise of 26 percent from 1995 (table A-39).
 

100 “The World Buckwheat Market,” Northeast Buckwheat Growers Newsletter, No. 7, June

1999, fount at http://www.nysaes.cornell.edu/hort, retrieved Mar. 2, 2000.

 

101 USTR, “Export Credits,” 2000 Trade Policy Agenda and 1999 Annual Report of the

President of the United States on the Trade Agreements Program, vol. 3, p.161, found at

www.ustr.gov/reports/tpa/2000/index.html, retrieved Apr. 18, 2000. 

 

102 Jonathan Coleman, “Agriculture in the WTO: The Seattle Ministerial and Beyond,”

Industry Trade and Technology Review, Office of Industries, USITC, publicaton 3293, Mar.

2000, p. 29.

 

103 Ian Elliott, “U.S. Leader Wants No Link in Export Subsidies, Credits,” Feedstuffs, Feb. 21,

2000, p. 21.

43

Sorghum

Sorghum exports followed the pattern of corn, the leading feedgrain, peaking in 1996 at

$739 million, and declining to $539 million in 1999 (table A-40). Mexico and Japan were the

two leading markets that together purchased 84 percent of total U.S. sorghum exports during

the period 1995-99. The EU and Israel were the only other markets of note for sorghum during

1995-99.

About 44 percent of the U.S. buckwheat crop was exported in 1997. About two-thirds of

average U.S. exports went to Japan during 1995-99. U.S. buckwheat exports declined from

$6 million to $3 million during the period as a recessionary Japanese economy and strong 

competition from lower priced Chinese exports weakened Japanese demand for U.S.

buckwheat exports.100

Foreign trade measures

Since the United States is the world’s leading grain exporter, foreign trade measures affecting

third-country markets as well as trade practices of competing grain exporters have been

important to the U.S. grain industry. U.S. grain exports during 1995-99 went to many

countries; Japan, Mexico, Korea, Egypt, and Taiwan were the five leading markets for U.S.

grain, having purchased on average about one-half (53 percent) of annual U.S. exports of $13

billion during 1995-99 (table A-30). Other leading grain markets were the Philippines,

Colombia, Russia, Canada, and Saudi Arabia.

Foreign trade-related measures of competing grain exporters, particularly the EU, Canada,

China, and Australia, have adversely affected U.S. grain exports. These measures include

export credit, food aid, and state-trading enterprises (STEs). Agricultural and other

commodity export credit is covered under the Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development Treaty (OECD) of which the United States and other leading developed

countries are members. In 1997, the OECD Arrangement on Guidelines for Officially

Supported Export Credits placed limitations on the terms and conditions of government export

credit financing, including agriculture.101 At the present time, government agricultural export

credit is identified as a form of subsidy by the WTO, but not subject to WTO disciplines.102

The EU did propose in December 1999 that the WTO disciplines be extended to cover such

credit.103
 

104 World Trade Organization, Trade Policy Review Japan 1998, June 1998, pp. 96-100.

 

105 FAS, USDA, Grain and Feed Annual Report: Canada, U.S. Embassy Ottawa, Report No.

CA8019, Apr. 20, 1998, for example.

 

106 USITC, Potential Impact on the U.S. Economy and Industries of the GATT Uruguay Round

Agreements, Inv. No. 332-353, June 1994.

 

107 Ibid., pp. II-73 to II-86.

 

108 Export subsidy commitments from WTO, The Results of the Urguay Round 1996

(CDROM), and export subsidy utilization found at http://www.wto.org/wto/online/ddf.htm.

44

Given the key importance of grain to food security, most grain producing countries provide

substantial tariff protection and direct support for their domestic grain producers. In some

cases, countries produce only one major type of grain (for example, rice, but not corn), and

thus protect only that portion of the grains market. Japan provides heavy protection for its rice

producers, but relies almost entirely on imports of corn and other coarse grains for animal

feed.104 Canada protects its wheat and barley producers, but imports all of its rice needs.105

Tariff rate quotas (TRQs)

Tariffs and tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) provide substantial protection for many grain markets

of the world. TRQs to protect domestic grain producers in foreign countries are widely applied

and permitted under the WTO, provided that the WTO has been notified of the TRQ and as

long as the applied tariffs are at or below bound WTO tariff rates.106 Among the leading grain

markets or grain exporters using TRQs are Canada, the EU, Japan, Brazil, Mexico, and South

Korea.

WTO-member countries were required to provide minimum access to their markets under the

Uruguay Round and to “tarifficate” grain quotas (that is replace the prior absolute quota or

licensing requirement with a stated rate of duty). Countries must allow a specified quantity

of grain imports to enter (the minimum access level) at a reduced Normal Trade Relations

(NTR) duty rate, but may (and generally do) apply a prohibitively high rate of duty for

imports above that quantity. Variable tariff rates, such as in the EU, Chile, and the Andean

Pact countries (the latter two using their “price band system”), further protect domestic

growers. In certain markets, licensing of grain imports (often related to TRQs, such as wheat

imports into India) may restrict import access.

Foreign government farm support

Government farm support policy in the form of export subsidies, state trading enterprises

(STEs), and domestic assistance programs for farmers are important trade measures that were

explicitly covered under the Uruguay Round Agreements and under the WTO beginning in

1995.107 Export subsidies have long been an issue in grain markets, although during 1995-97

(when world grain prices were quite high) significant use of grain subsidies was limited mostly

to the EU, according to data filed with the WTO.108

Government policy and support, in the form of STEs, also play a significant role in grain trade

internationally in both grain exporting and importing countries. The STEs that have important

roles in world grain trade include Japan’s Food Agency, the Canadian Wheat Board, the Food

Corporation of India, the Australian Wheat Board, the Indonesia Logistics Agency (BULOG),

and Korean STEs.109
 

109 Based on unpublished WTO notifications cited in USDA, ERS, Agriculture in the WTO,

Dec. 1998, p. 18.

 

110 USTR, “USTR Initiates 301 Investigation of European Union Subsidy Practices,” press

release 97-18, Mar. 10, 1997; and USDA, FAS, EU Grain and Feed Annual 2000, U.S. Mission,

Brussels, Report No. e20035, Mar. 31, 2000, p. 12.

 

111 USDA, ERS, Rice Yearbook, Dec. 2, 1999, p. 56.

 

112 USDA, FAS, “EU’s Grain Sector Could See Big Changes from Agenda 2000 Reforms,”

Grain: World Markets and Trade, Apr. 1999, pp. 7-9.

 

113 WTO, Trade Policy Review, Japan, (Geneva: 1998), p. 222.

 

114 FAS, USDA, Japan Grain and Feed Annual Report, Report No. JA9013, U.S. Embassy,

Tokyo, Feb. 8, 1999, pp. 2-11.

45

The EU, the United States, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, and Brazil have the largest amount of

support for grain producers in the world, according to data provided to the WTO.109 The EU

has had the most direct effect on world exports through its common agricultural policy (CAP)

that includes direct income payments to farmers, intervention (support) prices for grain, setaside payments for farmland, and export subsidies to move EU grain into world markets (since

typically, internal EU prices are higher than world prices), according to data provided to the

WTO.

In July 1995, the United States filed a complaint under the WTO on the EU’s implementation

of its market access concessions on grain. In July 1996, USTR announced a Grains

Agreement with the EU that eliminated the basis for the market access complaint by creating

a European TRQ for malting barley.110 As part of the compensation package to third-country

rice-exporters (like the United States) in return for Austria, Finland, and Sweden joining the

EU in 1998, the EU created in 1999 additional duty-free and reduced duty access for 39,000

metric tons of U.S. milled rice, 7,600 metric tons of U.S. brown rice, and 7,300 metric tons

of U.S. broken rice.111 

In 1999, the EU changed its CAP under its “Agenda 2000" and reduced intervention prices,

but increasing direct income payments to grain farmers. By 2002, the EU payments and

support should total the equivalent of $180 per ton of wheat, as compared to the $119 per ton

of support in the United States, according to USDA.112

Japan also provides high support for its rice, wheat and barley farmers and significant import

protection, according to WTO data.113 According to the WTO, unlike the EU and the United

States, Japan has implemented only minor changes in its support for agriculture over the past

two decades, having primarily altered the set aside rate for the amount of planted acreage, in

order to control a chronic oversupply of rice. Although Japan provided minimum import

access to its domestic rice market under the WTO, imports have contributed little to increases

in domestic rice consumption and represent only a fraction of Japanese rice production and

large stocks.114

Other foreign trade measures

There have been a series of bilateral disputes between the United States and Canada over trade

measures affecting wheat, barley, and oats. Canada has used certain licensing and SPS

measures to reduce U.S. access to the Canadian market. In 1997, Canada lifted its TRQs
 

115 USTR, “USTR Charlene Barshefsky Announces Agreement With Canada on Barley TRQ,”

press release 97-83, Sept. 8, 1997.

 

116 USTR, “USTR, USDA Announce Series of New Measures to Open Canadian Farm

Markets,” press release 98-107, Dec. 4, 1998; and FAS, USDA, Canada’s Progress Report: ROU

on Agricultural Trade 1999, Report No. CA9137, U.S. Embassy, Ottawa, Dec. 14, 1999.

 

117 North American Free Trade Agreement, Annex 302.2, Schedule of Canada.

 

118 See USITC, Potential Impact on the U.S. Economy and Industries of the GATT Uruguay

Round Agreements, USITC publication 2790, June 1994, p. II-14.

 

119 USDA, FAS, Grain: World Markets and Trade, Dec. 1998, p. 9.

 

120 In 1999/00, world grain trade (exports) of 260 MMT represented about 14 percent of world

total use of 1,858 MMT, according to USDA data, World Agricultural Supply and Demand

Estimates, Dec. 1999.

 

121 India for example has a very large domestic market for wheat and grain that has been

virtually cut off from imports. Although a potentially large market for imports, India has

imported little over the past two decades.

46

affecting U.S. barley and barley-containing products.115 As discussed earlier, under the 1998

ROU, Canada agreed to reduce licensing requirements and phytosanitary standards for U.S.

wheat, barley and oats.116 Under NAFTA, on January 1, 1998, Canada eliminated duties on

qualifying U.S. grain exports to Canada.117

Sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) play an important role in world grain trade, and

virtually all countries conduct grain inspection for both milling and animal feed. The SPS

measures are covered under the WTO agreement on the application of sanitary and

phytosanitary measures which requires that these measures be based on scientific analysis and

risk assessment, and that countries recognize equivalency, and specific regional disease areas

within a particular country.118 Major SPS disputes affecting U.S. grain exports (other those

with Canada mentioned above) have been GMO corn to the EU, and the wheat fungus TCK

(Tilletia Controversa Kuhn) as it affects U.S. wheat exports to Brazil and China.119

FOREIGN INDUSTRY PROFILE

Foreign Market Profile

Most grain is consumed and grown within the same region or country; in 1999/00, world grain

trade accounted for about 14 percent of world grain consumption.120 However, many countries

depend on grain imports for a sizable proportion of their domestic consumption or for supply

in those years of domestic crop failure. This market analysis concentrates on world imports

(grain trade) rather than on total domestic markets for grain.121

Recent demand for grain imports has been driven largely by growth in per capita income in

certain lower or middle-income countries of the world, particularly in the Pacific Rim, where

grain demand as a derived input demand has been stimulated by a growing demand for meat

and livestock products (requiring large feedgrain supplies). The very poor countries of the

world (lesser developed developing countries (LDDCs)), such as in Sub-Saharan Africa,

receive sizable amounts of food aid or assistance in the form of grain exports from the grain

exporting countries, but such food aid from the developed countries in the form of
 

122 For example, total world grain food aid declined from 11 MMT in 1989/90 to 8 MMT in

1995/96, according to USDA. USDA, ERS, Food Aid Needs Assessment, Nov. 1996., p. 11.

 

123 USDA, WASDE, Ibid., various issues.

 

124 For a description of concessional grain exports, see ERS, USDA, Food AID Needs

Assessment Situation and Outlook Series, Dec. 1999.

47

concessional grain has been sharply reduced since the 1980s,122 and has been replaced in part

by commercial sales.

World grain markets

During 1995/96 to 1999/00, overall world grain trade rose 9 percent to 264 MMT in 1999/00,

as did world grain production, to 1,865 MMT (table A-27).123 Continuing expansion of the

world population and rising per capita incomes supporting consumer demand for meat, eggs,

and poultry buttressed world demand for the rising grain production. Falling prices and

expanding stocks aided rising world trade.

Wheat

In volume of world grain imports, wheat is the leading grain traded. World imports of wheat

averaged about 100 MMT annually during 1995/96 to 1999/00, but trade was extremely

dispersed, with the six leading importing countries purchasing only about one-third of the total

(table A-41). Egypt, Brazil, Iran, Japan, Algeria, and South Korea were the largest markets

for wheat during these 5 years. Egypt relies extensively on food-aid wheat from the United

States as do a number of smaller LDDC markets.124

Corn and feedgrain

During 1995/96 to 1999/00, world corn imports averaged about 67 MMT annually with the

six leading markets purchasing over one-third of this amount (table A-42). Japan is by far the

leading corn market, followed by South Korea, Mexico, Egypt and Taiwan. The EU, despite

being a sizable exporter of coarse grain (barley), imports corn. Barley imports averaged about

16 MMT annually during 1995/96 to 1999/00, going principally to Saudi Arabia, China, and

Japan (table A-43). Total world coarse grain imports (corn, barley, oats, sorghum, and rye)

averaged about 92 MMT annually during the 5 years, with Japan again the leading market

(table A-44).
 

125 Average annual world production of grain was 1,558 MMT and annual exports 215 MMT,

with U.S. production averaging 325 MMT and U.S. exports 86 MMT. USDA, FAS, Grain:

World Markets and Trade, Nov. 1999, p. 3.

48

Rice

World rice imports averaged about 23 MMT annually (milled rice basis) during 1995/96 to

1999/00 (table A-45). As with wheat imports, trade is scattered among many countries of the

world, most of which are also sizable rice producers that import sporadically. The largest rice

markets during this period were Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, the Philippines, Iran, Saudi

Arabia, and Nigeria, together purchasing about 41 percent of the average 23 MMT imported

annually.

Major World Producers

The United States accounted for about 21 percent of total world grain production during cropyears 1995/96 to 1999/00, and 40 percent of world exports, based on USDA data.125 A large

number of countries are essentially self-sufficient in grain (except in isolated years of

drought), but do not have significant marketable excess supplies to trade.

World Producers’ Involvement in Export Markets

With regard to wheat and coarse grains, the dominant exporters are the United States, Canada,

the EU, Australia, Argentina, and more recently China. Significant, consistent rice exporters

are limited to Thailand, Vietnam, the United States, China, India, and Pakistan, although

many rice producers will export in years of exceptionally high output.

World exports of wheat, the leading traded grain, averaged about 102 MMT annually during

1995/96-1999/00, and the 5 leading exporters supplied 85 percent of total exports during the

period (table A-46). The five leading suppliers were the United States, with a 29-percent

share, Canada with 17 percent, Australia with 15 percent, the EU with 15 percent, and

Argentina with 8 percent. Annual world average wheat exports remained relatively steady at

about 102 MMT, but the U.S. share of wheat exports fluctuated between 26 and 34 percent

of the total during the 5 years. 

During the same period, world corn exports averaged about 67 MMT annually, with the

United States, Argentina, and China supplying 92 percent of the total (table A-47). The EU,

Australia, and Canada dominate export sales of the other leading feedgrain, barley, with more

than three-quarters of total exports of barley between 1995/96 and 1999/00 (table A-48).

Total world coarse grain imports (including corn, barley, oats, sorghum, and rye) averaged

92 MMT annually during the period, with the U.S. share at 58 percent (table A-49).
49

World rice exports averaged 23 MMT annually (milled rice basis) between 1995/96 and

1999/00, with Thailand, Vietnam, the United States, and India being the four leaders, having

together 67 percent of total exports (table A-50). World rice exports rose sharply in 1998, a

year with adverse growing conditions (El Nino) occurring in many rice-producing countries.

These countries generally do not import rice, except in years of crop shortages.

APPENDIX A

STATISTICAL TABLES
A-2

Table A-1

Grain: U.S. production of and price received for the leading U.S. grain crops, by type, crop-years

1995-99

Crop year beginning Wheat Corn Sorghum Rice Oats Barley Total

——— Million bushels ———

Million

cwt Million bushels

Million

metric tons

1995 ..................... 2,183 7,374 460 174 162 360 275.1

1996 ..................... 2,277 9,233 795 172 155 392 333.2

1997 ..................... 2,482 9,207 634 183 167 360 333.7

1998 ..................... 2,547 9,761 520 188 166 352 347.0

19991..................... 2,302 9,537 596 211 146 282 332.7

——————————— Value (million dollars) ————————————

1995 ..................... 9,933 23,892 1,470 1,592 270 1,040 38,190

1996 ..................... 9,791 25,021 1,860 1,713 300 1,070 39,750

1997 ..................... 8,389 22,373 1,401 1,775 270 860 35,070

1998 ..................... 6,750 19,034 884 1,660 180 700 29,200

1999 ..................... 5,870 17,200 920 1,270 160 580 26,000

————–——— Price received by farmers (dollars) —————————

———— Per bushel ————

Per

cwt Per bushel

Per 

metric ton

1995 ..................... $4.55 $3.24 $3.19 $9.15 $1.67 $2.89 $136

1996 ..................... 4.30 2.71 2.34 9.96 1.96 2.74 117

1997 ..................... 3.38 2.43 2.21 9.70 1.60 2.38 103

1998 ..................... 2.65 1.95 1.70 8.83 1.10 1.98 83

1999 ..................... 2.55 1.80 1.55 6.00 1.10 2.05 78

1

 Forecast Feb. 2000.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A-3

Table A-2

Grain: Operating characteristics of leading U.S. grain farms, by type of grain, 1997

Crop

Number

of 

farms

Harvested

acreage Production

Percentage of production accounted for by farms each with

harvested acreage of:

1,000

1,000

acres

Under 250

acres

250-500

acres

500-1,000

acres

Over 1,000

acres Total

Wheat (million bushels) .............. 244 58,836 2,204 24 18 24 34 100

Corn for grain or seed (million bushels) ... 431 69,797 8,579 33 27 25 15 100

Sorghum (million bushels) ............ 49 8,470 559 40 25 19 15 100

Barley (million bushels) ............... 42 5,945 336 38 25 22 15 100

Oats (million bushels) ................ 90 2,681 151 89 7 3 1 100

Rice (million cwt) ................... 9 3,122 182 19 31 30 20 100

Popcorn (pounds, shelled) ............ 2 337 996 47 25 27 (

1

) 100

Total ........................ 867 2149,188 (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) (

3

)

1

 Less than 1 percent.

2

 The number of farms are double counted.

3

 Not applicable.

Note.—A bushel contains 60 pounds of wheat, 56 pounds of shelled corn, 56 pounds of sorghum, 48 pounds of barley, and 32

pounds of oats.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A-4

Table A-3

Specialty grain: U.S. acreage harvested, number of farms, yield, and production, 1992 and

1997

Harvested

acreage

Number of

farms

Yield Production 

Item/unit of measure 1992 1997 1992 1997 1992 1997 1992 1997

— 1,000 acres — –— Number –— Units/acre – 1,000 units –

Buckwheat (bushels) ... 65 25 1,030 450 4 3 900 733

Emmer and spelt

 (bushels) .......... 9 5 620 400 61 51 543 285

Popcorn

 (pounds shelled) ....

321 337 3,260 2,340 3,470 2,955 1,114,000 996,000

Proso millet (bushels) . . 240 354 1,870 1,840 4 6 6,619 10,560

Rye (bushels) ........ 336 268 9,830 6,330 16 12 9,286 6,501

Triticale (bushels) ..... 22 17 400 200 5 6 639 508

Wild rice (pounds) ..... 34 29 90 80 34 29 23 17

Total .............. 1,027 1,035 17,100 11,640 (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

 

1

 Not meaningful.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding. A bushel contains 48 pounds of buckwheat, 40 pounds of emmer

and spelt, 50 pounds of proso millet, and 56 pounds of triticale.

Source: USDA, 1997 Census of Agriculture, vol. 1, part 51, table 26. 

Table A-4

Grain: Harvested acreage, and yield of the leading U.S. crops, by type, crop-years, 1995-99

Type 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

———–———— Harvested acreage (million acres) ———–———

Wheat .......................... 60.9 62.9 62.8 59.0 53.9

Corn ........................... 65.2 72.6 72.7 72.6 70.9

Sorghum ........................ 8.3 11.8 9.2 7.7 8.5

Rice ............................ 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6

Oats ........................... 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5

Barley .......................... 6.1 6.4 6.2 5.9 4.8

Total ........................ 146.1 160.2 156.8 151.3 143.8

——————————— Yield (per acre) ———––———————

Wheat (bushels) .................. 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7

Corn (ditto) ...................... 128.6 122.2 126.6 133.9 133.1

Sorghum (ditto) ................... 55.6 67.5 69.2 67.3 69.7

Rice (pounds) .................... 5,621.0 6,121.0 5,897.0 5,669.0 5,908.0

Oats (bushels) .................... 54.7 57.8 59.5 60.2 60.0

Barley (ditto) ..................... 57.3 58.5 58.1 60.0 59.5

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of Feb. 2000.
A-5

Table A-5

Corn: U.S. corn for grain, harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 12 leading States,

crop years 1995/96 to 1999/00

State 1995/9

6

1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00

———————— Area harvested (million acres) ————————

Iowa .......................... 11.4 12.4 11.9 12.2 11.8

Illinois ......................... 10.0 10.8 11.0 10.4 10.6

Nebraska ....................... 7.7 8.3 8.6 8.6 8.3

Minnesota ...................... 6.2 7.0 6.4 6.8 6.6

Indiana ........................ 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.7

Wisconsin ...................... 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9

Kansas ........................ 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0

Ohio .......................... 3.1 2.8 3.6 3.3 3.2

South Dakota .................... 2.5 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.2

Missouri ........................ 1.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6

Texas ......................... 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Michigan ....................... 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0

All other ........................ 8.3 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.2

Total ........................ 65.2 72.6 72.7 72.6 70.9

—————————— Yield (bushels per acre) —————————

Iowa .......................... 123.0 135.0 138.0 145.0 149.0

Illinois ......................... 113.0 135.0 129.0 141.0 140.0

Nebraska ....................... 110.9 142.1 132.0 145.0 139.0

Minnesota ...................... 118.0 117.0 132.0 153.0 150.0

Indiana ........................ 112.8 116.8 122.0 137.0 132.0

Wisconsin ...................... 115.9 107.0 132.0 137.0 143.0

Kansas ........................ 122.1 142.0 143.0 147.0 141.0

Ohio .......................... 121.0 106.0 134.0 141.0 126.0

South Dakota .................... 77.4 88.8 96.0 121.0 113.0

Missouri ........................ 99.9 128.0 115.0 114.0 97.0

Texas ......................... 114.0 95.0 138.0 100.0 129.0

Michigan ....................... 113.4 92.0 117.0 111.0 130.0

All other ........................ 106.0 111.6 115.0 107.0 110.0

Average ..................... 113.5 127.1 126.7 134.4 134.5

————————— Production (million bushels) 

—————————

Iowa .......................... 1,402.2 1,674.0 1,642.2 1,769.0 1,758.2

Illinois ......................... 1,130.0 1,458.0 1,425.4 1,473.4 1,491.0

Nebraska ....................... 854.0 1,179.8 1,135.2 1,239.8 1,153.7

Minnesota ...................... 731.9 819.0 851.4 1,032.8 990.0

Indiana ........................ 598.0 654.0 701.5 760.4 748.4

Wisconsin ...................... 347.7 342.4 402.6 404.2 407.6

Kansas ........................ 244.3 340.8 371.8 419.0 420.2

Ohio .......................... 375.1 297.0 475.7 470.9 403.2

South Dakota .................... 193.6 328.5 326.4 429.6 367.2

Missouri ........................ 149.9 332.8 299.9 285.0 247.4

Texas ......................... 216.6 171.0 241.5 185.0 228.3

Michigan ....................... 249.6 220.9 255.1 227.6 253.5

All other ........................ 907.2 1,414.4 1,078.3 1,064.3 1,068.6

Total ........................ 7,400.1 9,232.6 9,207.0 9,761.0 9,537.3

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of Jan. 2000.
A-6

Table A-6

Wheat: U.S. wheat harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 11 leading States, crop-years,

1995/99 to 1990/00

State 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00

———————————— Area harvested (million acres) ———————————

Kansas ............. 11.0 8.8 10.9 10.1 9.2

North Dakota ......... 11.1 12.5 11.1 9.6 8.7

Montana ............ 5.4 6.4 5.8 5.3 5.3

Oklahoma ........... 5.2 4.9 5.3 5.1 4.3

Washington .......... 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3

Texas .............. 2.8 2.9 4.1 3.9 3.4

Colorado ............ 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.5

Idaho ............... 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4

Nebraska ............ 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8

Minnesota ........... 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.0 2.0

Missouri ............. 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.9

All other ............. 13.2 14.9 13.4 13.5 12.1

Total ............. 60.9 62.9 62.8 59.0 53.6

————————————— Yield (bushels per acre) —————————————

Kansas ............. 26.0 29.0 46.0 49.0 46.0

North Dakota ......... 27.0 31.6 24.3 32.0 28.0

Montana ............ 36.3 27.3 31.1 32.0 29.0

Oklahoma ........... 21.0 19.0 32.0 39.0 35.0

Washington .......... 59.3 66.5 64.0 61.4 54.2

Texas .............. 27.0 26.0 29.0 35.0 36.0

Colorado ............ 39.0 32.8 32.8 39.6 43.8

Idaho ............... 79.5 74.5 79.6 80.0 77.4

Nebraska ............ 41.0 35.0 37.0 46.0 48.0

Minnesota ........... 32.6 42.6 32.0 40.6 39.8

Missouri ............. 40.0 37.5 54.0 46.0 48.0

All other ............. 49.0 46.0 43.9 48.6 55.1

Average .......... 35.8 36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7

———————————— Production (million bushels) ———————–—————

Kansas ............. 286.0 255.2 501.4 494.9 423.2

North Dakota ......... 300.3 395.1 269.3 307.7 242.1

Montana ............ 195.8 175.0 181.5 168.8 154.3

Oklahoma ........... 109.2 93.1 169.6 198.9 150.5

Washington .......... 153.8 182.7 165.1 157.4 124.1

Texas .............. 75.6 75.4 118.9 136.5 122.4

Colorado ............ 105.3 75.5 90.1 103.7 104.4

Idaho ............... 103.3 119.2 113.8 102.4 104.5

Nebraska ............ 86.1 73.5 70.3 82.8 86.4

Minnesota ........... 71.8 106.6 77.3 80.4 79.2

Missouri ............. 48.0 48.8 58.3 57.5 44.2

All other ............. 647.4 676.9 588.7 656.3 667.1

Total ............. 2,182.6 2,277.4 2,481.6 2,547.3 2,302.4

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of Jan. 2000.
A-7

Table A-7 

Rice: U.S. rice harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 6 leading States, crop-years

1995/96 to 1999/00

State 1995/9

6

1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00

———————— Area harvested (million acres) ————————

Arkansas ....................... 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6

California ....................... 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Louisiana ....................... 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

Mississippi ...................... 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3

Texas ......................... 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Missouri ........................ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

Total ........................ 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6

—————–———— Yield (pounds per acre) —————––———

Arkansas ....................... 5,450 6,150 5,700 5,800 5,900

California ....................... 7,600 7,490 8,250 6,840 7,260

Louisiana ....................... 4,600 4,870 4,630 4,530 5,000

Mississippi ...................... 5,400 6,000 5,800 5,800 5,650

Texas ......................... 5,600 6,200 5,500 5,600 6,000

Missouri ....................... 5,300 5,550 5,300 5,200 5,400

Average ..................... 5,621 6,121 5,897 5,669 5,929

————––———— Production (million cwt) 

———––——————

Arkansas ....................... 73.0 71.9 79.2 88.4 97.0

California ....................... 35.4 37.5 42.5 32.7 38.9

Louisiana ....................... 26.2 26.0 27.0 28.1 30.8

Mississippi ...................... 15.6 12.5 13.8 15.5 18.2

Texas ......................... 17.8 18.5 14.2 15.8 15.6

Missouri ....................... 6.0 5.0 6.2 7.4 9.9

Total ........................ 174.0 171.3 183.0 188.1 211.0

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of Feb. 2000.
A-8

Table A-8

Sorghum: U.S. grain sorghum harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 10 leading

States, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

State 1995/9

6

1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00

———————— Area harvested (million acres) ————————

Kansas ......................... 3.1 4.6 3.5 3.3 3.4

Texas .......................... 2.4 3.9 3.2 2.3 3.0

Nebraska ........................ 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5

Missouri ......................... 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3

Louisiana ........................ (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) 0.1 0.2

Oklahoma ....................... 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4

Colorado ........................ 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2

Arkansas ........................ 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Illinois .......................... 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

South Dakota ..................... 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

All other ......................... 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2

Total ......................... 8.3 11.8 9.2 7.7 8.5

————————— Yield (bushels per acre) ——————————

Kansas ......................... 56.0 76.0 78.0 80.0 76.0

Texas .......................... 54.0 49.0 59.0 46.0 63.0

Nebraska ........................ 63.1 90.0 81.0 94.0 91.0

Missouri ......................... 71.6 85.4 92.0 83.0 71.0

Louisiana ........................ 70.0 76.0 75.0 60.0 82.0

Oklahoma ....................... 42.7 62.5 50.0 45.0 45.0

Colorado ........................ 23.0 42.0 40.0 57.0 42.0

Arkansas ........................ 65.5 79.5 74.5 53.0 78.0

Illinois .......................... 117.0 85.0 91.0 74.0 95.0

South Dakota ..................... 48.0 44.0 71.0 71.0 58.0

All other ......................... (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Average ...................... 55.6 67.3 69.2 67.3 70.1

————————— Production (million bushels) 

—————————

Kansas ......................... 173.6 349.6 265.2 264.0 258.4

Texas .......................... 129.6 191.1 185.8 105.8 185.8

Nebraska ........................ 56.8 90.0 60.8 56.4 42.8

Missouri ......................... 35.8 59.8 36.8 26.6 22.0

Louisiana ........................ 5.9 12.0 6.6 7.5 19.3

Oklahoma ....................... 12.8 25.0 22.5 15.3 18.0

Colorado ........................ 4.6 8.4 6.0 10.5 8.6

Arkansas ........................ 13.1 15.9 11.1 6.9 9.8

Illinois .......................... 11.7 17.0 10.5 7.9 9.2

South Dakota ..................... 4.8 8.8 11.4 9.9 4.6

All other ......................... 11.7 19.2 16.8 9.1 16.7

Total ......................... 458.6 795.3 633.5 519.9 596.0

1

 Less than 50,000 acres.

2

 Not available.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of Feb. 2000.
A-9

Table A-9

Oats: U.S. oats harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 10 leading States, crop-years

1995/96 to 1999/00

State 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00

———————— Area harvested (million acres) ————————

North Dakota ................. 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

Minnesota ................... 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Wisconsin ................... 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

South Dakota ................. 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

Iowa ....................... 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Pennsylvania ................. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Ohio ....................... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Michigan .................... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Texas ...................... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Nebraska .................... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

All other ..................... 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7

Total ..................... 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5

————————— Yield (bushels per acre) ——————————

North Dakota ................. 48.0 50.0 44.0 60.0 51.0

Minnesota ................... 45.0 50.3 58.0 63.0 59.0

Wisconsin ................... 62.3 58.0 63.0 61.0 62.0

South Dakota ................. 38.3 54.0 55.0 67.0 64.0

Iowa ....................... 65.0 68.0 73.0 59.0 65.0

Pennsylvania ................. 59.0 56.0 58.0 53.0 55.0

Ohio ....................... 69.0 57.0 74.0 65.0 70.0

Michigan .................... 57.0 60.0 61.0 48.0 65.0

Texas ...................... 42.0 34.0 52.0 53.0 44.0

Nebraska .................... 50.0 71.0 65.0 56.0 62.0

All other ..................... 67.0 84.0 66.0 57.0 57.0

Average .................. 54.6 57.7 59.5 60.2 59.7

———–————— Production (million bushels) ———–—————

North Dakota ................. 21.6 19.0 18.7 25.2 16.8

Minnesota ................... 18.0 15.1 17.4 19.5 17.7

Wisconsin ................... 18.7 17.4 20.2 18.3 18.6

South Dakota ................. 11.5 21.6 14.8 20.1 12.8

Iowa ....................... 14.6 12.9 16.8 10.9 11.3

Pennsylvania ................. 9.4 7.6 9.0 8.5 8.0

Ohio ....................... 6.9 5.1 6.7 6.5 7.0

Michigan .................... 5.1 3.6 4.9 4.8 4.9

Texas ...................... 5.0 3.4 6.8 6.9 4.8

Nebraska .................... 4.5 7.4 5.8 5.3 4.7

All other ..................... 46.7 42.2 45.9 40.0 39.6

Total ..................... 161.1 153.2 167.2 166.0 146.2 

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of Feb. 2000.
A-10

Table A-10

Barley: U.S. barley harvested acreage, yield, and production, by 9 leading States, crop-years

1995/96 to 1999/00

State 1995/9

6

1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00

———————— Area harvested (million acres) ————————

North Dakota ..................... 2.3 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.2

Montana ........................ 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Idaho ........................... 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7

Washington ...................... 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

Minnesota ....................... 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2

Colorado ........................ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Oregon ......................... (

1

) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

California ........................ 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

Wyoming ........................ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

All other ......................... 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5

Total ......................... 6.3 6.7 6.2 5.9 4.8

————————— Yield (bushels per acre) 

——————————

North Dakota ..................... 45.0 55.0 45.0 55.0 48.0

Montana ........................ 52.0 43.0 53.0 48.0 50.0

Idaho ........................... 80.0 73.0 79.0 78.0 78.0

Washington ...................... 72.0 62.0 74.0 65.0 59.0

Minnesota ....................... 50.0 64.0 51.0 55.0 47.0

Colorado ........................ 100.0 108.0 108.0 115.0 84.0

Oregon ......................... 76.0 64.0 69.0 62.0 51.0

California ........................ 70.0 60.0 57.0 60.0 64.0

Wyoming ........................ 89.0 86.0 80.0 84.0 86.0

All other ......................... 91.0 53.2 82.0 57.4 87.2

Average ...................... 57.2 58.5 58.1 60.0 59.2

———————— Production (million bushels) —————————

North Dakota ..................... 101.3 143.0 101.2 106.2 59.5

Montana ........................ 62.4 51.6 61.0 57.6 57.5

Idaho ........................... 60.8 53.3 59.2 59.3 53.8

Washington ...................... 20.9 27.3 35.5 33.8 28.9

Minnesota ....................... 29.0 33.3 23.5 22.8 8.5

Colorado ........................ 10.0 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.0

Oregon ......................... 7.2 9.6 8.0 8.1 6.9

California ........................ 14.0 12.0 8.6 7.5 8.0

Wyoming ........................ 8.5 10.3 8.4 7.1 7.3

All other ......................... 45.3 42.1 44.9 40.3 42.5

Total ......................... 359.4 392.4 359.9 352.1 281.9

1

 Less than 500,000 acres.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of Feb. 2000.
A-11

Table A-11

USDA support for crop farmers: Production flexibility contract payments under the 1996

FAIR Act, 1996-2000

Commodity

Commodity

 share of

year 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Percentage ––––––––––– Million dollars –––––––––––

1996 Farm Act gross contract payments:

Wheat ............................ 26.26 1,463 1,414 1,523 1,471 1,347

Corn ............................. 46.22 2,574 2,489 2,681 2,590 2,371

Sorghum .......................... 5.11 285 275 296 286 262

Barley ............................ 2.16 120 116 125 121 111

Oats ............................. 0.15 8 8 9 8 8

Upland cotton ...................... 11.63 648 626 675 652 597

Rice .............................. 8.47 472 456 491 475 435

Total payments, unadjusted ........ 100 5,570 5,385 5,800 5,603 5,130

Adjusted contract payments, before

payment 

limitations:1

Wheat ............................ 26.21 1,976 1,426 1,534 1,483 1,347

Corn ............................. 46.13 1,771 3,434 2,695 2,603 2,371

Sorghum .......................... 5.10 206 347 298 288 262

Barley ............................ 2.16 140 117 126 122 111

Oats ............................. 0.16 9 8 9 9 8

Upland cotton ...................... 11.62 746 639 689 665 597

Rice2............................. 8.62 472 461 498 480 443

Total adjusted payments ........... 100.0 5,321 6,433 5,848 5,650 5,139

Projected contract payments after payment

limitations and other adjustments:

Wheat ............................ 26.34 1,941 1,397 1,497 1,462 1,328

Corn .............................. 46.51 1,745 3,384 2,633 2,574 2,345

Sorghum .......................... 5.08 201 338 287 282 256

Barley ............................ 2.14 137 113 120 118 108

Oats .............................. 0.16 9 8 9 8 8

Upland cotton ....................... 11.27 699 597 637 634 568

Rice .............................. 8.53 455 448 478 466 430

Total payments .................. 100.0 5,186 6,286 5,661 5,544 5,042

1

 Adjusted for prior-year earned deficiency payments paid in these years, repayments of unearned 1995

deficiency payments, and repayments of prior-year PFC payments. These adjusted contract payments are

used for payment rate calculations.

2

 1996 Farm Act includes additional rice payments of $8.5 million annually, FY 1997 through FY 2002.

Note.—FY 1999 appropriations for agriculture provide $3.057 billion for market loss assistance, with $2.857

billion to be paid to farmers eligible for production flexibility payments in the previous year.

Source: USDA, Office of Chief Economist, USDA Baseline Projections, Feb. 1999, and Feb. 1997.
A-12

Table A-12

The FAIR Act of 1996: Loan rates and contract payment rates, by crop, crop-year 1995/96 to

1999/2000

Item 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/001

––––––––––––––– Dollars per unit ––––––––––––––

Marketing assistance loan rates:

Corn .................................. 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89

Sorghum ............................... 1.80 1.81 1.76 1.74 1.75

Barley ................................. 1.54 1.55 1.57 1.56 1.58

Oats .................................. 0.97 1.03 1.11 1.11 1.14

Wheat ................................. 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58

Rice .................................. 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

––––––––––––––– Dollars per unit2

––––––––––––––

Production flexibility contract payment rates:

Corn .................................. 0 0.25 0.49 0.38 0.36

Sorghum ............................... 0 .32 .54 .45 .44

Barley ................................. 0 .33 .28 .28 .27

Oats .................................. 0 .03 .03 .03 .03

Wheat ................................. 0 .87 .63 .66 .64

Rice .................................. 3.22 2.77 2.71 2.92 2.82

1

 Market loss assistance payment rates, to be paid in FY 1999 to farmers eligible for production flexibility

payments in the previous year, are: wheat, $0.33; corn, $0.187; sorghum, $0.225; barley, $0.141; oats, $0.016;

and rice, $1.45.

2

 In 1995/96, deficiency payments under the FACT Act of 1990.

Note.—Units for marketing assistance loan rates and production flexibility payment rates are dollars per bushel

except for rice (per hundredweight).

Source: USDA, Office of the Chief Economist, USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2008, Feb. 1999, table 5,

and Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2005, Reflecting the 1996 Farm Act, Feb. 1997, tables 6-7.
A-13

Table A-13

Wheat: U.S. production, imports, exports, beginning stocks, and apparent consumption, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year beginning

June 1– Production Exports Imports

Beginning

stocks

Apparent consumption

Ratio of

exports to

production

Season

 average

price

received

Food Feed Seed Total by farmers

———————————————— Quantity (million bushels) 

—————————————————— Percentage

Dollars

per bushel

1995/96 ......... 2,183 1,241 68 507 883 154 104 1,140 57 $4.55

1996/97 ......... 2,277 1,002 92 376 891 308 102 1,301 44 4.30

1997/98 ......... 2,482 1,040 95 443 914 250 92 1,257 42 3.38

1998/99 ......... 2,547 1,042 103 722 908 396 81 1,385 41 2.65

1999/001........ 2,302 1,090 94 946 920 325 90 1,335 47 2.50

1

 Forecast, June 2000.

 

Note.—Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in bushel equivalents. Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production,

imports and beginning stocks for the period, less the sum of exports and beginning stocks of the following period. “Feed” includes residual use.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A-14

Table A-14

Durum wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for

consumption, apparent consumption, and season average price, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year 

beginning

June 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent

consumption

Ratio of

exports to

production

Season

average

 price

 received

by farmers

———————— Quantity (million bushels) ————————— Percentage Per bushel

1995/96 ..... 26 102 39 19 82 38 $5.65

1996/97 ..... 25 116 38 24 96 33 4.45

1997/98 ..... 31 88 57 29 65 65 4.86

1998/99 ..... 26 138 40 34 103 29 3.11

1999/001.... 55 99 40 32 84 41 2.70

1

 Forecast, Feb. 2000.

Note.—Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production, imports and beginning stocks for the period,

less the sum of exports and beginning stocks of the following period. Imports and exports include flour and other

products expressed in wheat equivalent.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A-15

Table A-15

Hard winter wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent

consumption, and season average price, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year beginning 

June 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent consumption 

Ratio of

exports to

production

Season

 average

 price

 received

by farmers1 Food Seed

Feed/

residual Total

——————————————— Quantity (million bushels) ———————————————— Percentage Per bushel

1995/96 .......... 194 825 384 0 346 40 95 481 47 $4.80

1996/97 .......... 154 759 286 0 320 38 127 485 38 4.28

1997/98 .......... 143 1,098 362 1 379 36 158 573 33 3.20

1998/99 .......... 307 1,180 453 1 385 35 179 599 38 2.50

1999/002......... 435 1,055 490 1 (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) 539 46 2.34

1

 Central and South Plains.

2

 Forecast, June 2000.

3

 Not available.

Note.—Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production, imports and beginning stocks for the period, less the sum of exports and beginning stocks

of the following period. Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Table A-16

Hard spring wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent

consumption, and season average price, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year beginning 

June 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent consumption Ratio of

exports to

production

Season

 average

 price

received

by farmers1 Food

Feed/

residual Seed Total

——————————————— Quantity (million bushels) ———————————————— Percentage Per bushel

1995/96 ......... 193 475 330 30 231 27 4 262 69 $4.63

1996/97 ......... 106 631 300 53 260 32 32 324 48 4.31

1997/98 ......... 166 491 240 57 225 24 5 254 49 3.53

1998/99 ......... 220 486 247 58 230 36 18 284 51 3.02

1999/002........ 239 448 230 59 (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) 303 51 2.89

1

 Central and South Plains.

2

 Forecast, June 2000.

3

 Not available.

Note.—Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production, imports and beginning stocks for the period, less the sum of exports and beginning stocks

of the following period. Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A-16

Table A-17

Soft red wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent

consumption, and season average price, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year beginning 

June 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent consumption Ratio of 

exports to

production

Season

 average

price

received

by farmers1 Food Seed

Feed/

residual Total

———————————————— Quantity (million bushels) 

————————————————— Percentage

Dollars

per bushel

1995/96 .......... 37 456 250 0 150 23 34 207 55 $4.36

1996/97 .......... 35 420 140 0 150 19 101 270 33 3.85

1997/98 .......... 45 472 180 0 155 20 82 257 38 3.11

1998/99 .......... 80 443 105 0 150 18 114 282 24 2.25

1999/002......... 136 453 160 0 (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) 283 35 42.13

1

 Corn Belt States.

2

 Forecast, June 2000.

3

 Not available.

4

 June-Feb. average.

Note.—Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production, imports and beginning stocks for the period, less the sum of exports and beginning stocks

of the following period. Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Table A-18

White wheat: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption,

and season average price, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year beginning 

June 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent consumption Ratio of

exports to

production

Season

 average

price

received

by farmers1 Food Seed

Feed/

residual Total

——————————————— Quantity (million bushels) ———————————————— Percentage

Dollars

per bushel

1995/96 ......... 57 325 238 19 77 7 24 108 73 4.74

1996/97 ......... 55 352 237 15 85 7 34 126 67 4.26

1997/98 ......... 59 332 205 8 80 6 18 104 62 3.41

1998/99 ......... 90 301 198 10 75 6 35 116 66 2.60

1999/002........ 87 247 160 6 (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) 96 65 42.77

1

 Pacific Northwest States.

2

 Forecast, June 2000.

3

 Not available.

4

 June-Feb. average.

Note.—Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production, imports and beginning stocks for the period, less the sum of exports and beginning stocks

of the following period. Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A-17

Table A-19

Corn: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, and apparent consumption,

crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year beginning

Sept. 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent consumption

Ratio of

exports to

production

Season

 average

price

received

Feed by farmers

Food, 

alcohol and

industrial Total

————————————— Quantity (million bushels) —————————————— Percentage Dollars

per bushel

1995/96 ............ 1,558 7,400 2,228 16 4,713 1,608 6,320 30 $3.24

1996/97 ............ 426 9,233 1,797 13 5,297 1,692 6,991 20 2.71

1997/98 ............ 883 9,207 1,504 9 5,502 1,782 7,287 16 2.43

1998/99 ............ 1,308 9,759 1,981 19 5,491 1,822 7,318 20 1.94

1999/001........... 1,787 9,437 1,900 15 5,670 1,880 7,580 20 1.80

1

 Forecast, Apr. 2000.

Note.—Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production, imports and beginning stocks for the period, less the sum of exports and beginning stocks

of the following period. Feed use includes residual uses and seed.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Table A-20

Popcorn: U.S. production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and price, 1995-99

Year Production Exports Imports

Apparent

 consumption

Ratio of exports

to production U.S. export price1

—————————————— Million pounds ———————————— Percentage Cents per pound

1995 ................... 1,043 290 (

2

) 753 28 22

1996 ................... 1,020 269 (

2

) 751 26 28

1997 ................... 996 212 15 799 21 35

1998 ................... 973 220 (

2

) 753 23 30

1999 ................... 949 206 (

2

) 743 22 29

1

 Export unit value, f.a.s., U.S. port of export.

2

 Less than 500,000 pounds.

Note.—Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production and imports less exports. Production during 1998-99 are Commission staff estimates.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, except as noted.
A-18

Table A-21

Oats: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

season average price, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year beginning

June 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent consumption

Ratio of

imports to

consumption

Season

 average

price

received

Feed by farmers

Food, 

alcohol,

industrial Seed Total

————————————————— (Million bushels) —————————————————— Percentage

Dollars

per bushel

1995/96 ......... 101 161 2 81 195 67 12 274 29 1.67

1996/97 ......... 66 153 2 98 172 63 13 248 39 1.96

1997/98 ......... 67 167 2 98 185 59 13 256 38 1.60

1998/99 ......... 74 166 2 108 196 57 12 265 41 1.10

1999/001........ 81 146 2 100 180 57 11 248 57 1.10

1

 Forecast, Apr. 2000.

Note.—Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production, imports, and beginning stocks for the period, less the sum of exports and beginning

stocks of the following period. Feed includes residual uses.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Table A-22

Sorghum: U.S. production, imports of domestic merchandise, exports for consumption, beginning stocks, and apparent

consumption, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year beginning

Sept. 1– Production Exports Imports

Beginning

stocks

Apparent consumption

Ratio of

exports to

production

Season

 average

price

received

Feed by farmers

Food, 

alcohol,

industrial Total

——————————————— Quantity (million bushels) ———————————————— Percentage

Dollars

per bushel

1995/96 ......... 459 198 0 72 295 17 314 43 3.19

1996/97 ......... 795 205 0 18 517 44 561 26 2.34

1997/98 ......... 634 212 0 48 366 54 420 33 2.21

1998/99 ......... 520 197 0 49 263 44 307 38 1.70

1999/001........ 595 235 0 65 326 54 380 39 1.55

1

 Forecast, Apr. 2000.

Note.—Feed includes residual and seed use.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A-19

Table A-23

Barley: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent consumption, and

season average price, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year beginning 

June 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent consumption

Ratio of

 imports to

consumption

Season

 average

price

received

by farmers

Feed

and

 residual

Food, 

alcohol, and

industrial Seed Total

————————————————— (Million bushels) —————————————————— Percentage

Dollars

per bushel

1995/96 ......... 113 360 62 41 179 160 12 351 12 2.89

1996/97 ......... 100 392 31 37 217 161 11 389 10 2.74

1997/98 ......... 109 360 74 40 144 162 10 316 13 2.38

1998/99 ......... 119 352 28 30 161 161 9 331 9 1.98

1999/001........ 142 282 30 25 125 162 10 297 8 2.05

1

 Forecast, Apr. 2000.

Note.—Apparent consumption is calculated as the sum of production, imports, and beginning stocks for the period, less the sum of exports and beginning

stocks of the following period.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Table A-24

Rice: U.S. beginning stocks, production, imports, exports, and apparent consumption, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year

beginning

Aug. 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Imports

Exports Apparent consumption Ratio of

exports to

production

Season

 average

price

received

Rough Milled Total Food Seed Brewing Total by farmers

————————————————— Quantity (million cwt) 

—————————————————————— Percentage

Dollars

per cwt

1995/96 .... 31 174 7 11 72 83 78 4 16 106 48 9.15

1996/97 .... 25 172 10 13 66 78 81 4 15 103 45 9.96

1997/98 .... 27 183 9 26 62 88 84 4 16 105 48 9.70

1998/99 .... 28 188 10 26 59 85 87 4 16 119 45 8.83

1999/001... 22 211 11 16 69 85 90 4 16 117 40 6.00

1

 Forecast, Feb. 2000.

Note.—Cwt of rough rice equivalent. Total consumption include unreported residual losses.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A-20

Table A-25

Long-grain rice: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, apparent

consumption and price, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year 

beginning

Aug. 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent

consumption

Ratio of 

exports to

production

Price, U.S. longgrain, Houston,

exports

—————————————— Quantity (million cwt) 

——————————————— Percentage

Dollars

per metric ton

1995/96 ........... 14 122 65 6 67 53 414

1996/97 ........... 10 114 56 9 62 49 450

1997/98 ........... 14 124 72 8 60 58 415

1998/99 ........... 14 142 71 9 80 49 369

1999/001.......... 14 154 70 10 77 45 302

1

 Forecast, Feb. 2000.

Note.—Consumption includes unreported loss and residual use. One metric ton equals 22.046 cwt.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Table A-26

Medium and short-grain rice: U.S. beginning stocks, production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption,

apparent consumption, and price, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Year 

beginning

Aug. 1–

Beginning

stocks Production Exports Imports

Apparent

consumption

Ratio of exports

to production

Price, U.S.

medium-grade,

California

————————————— (Million cwt) ———————————— Percentage

Dollars

per metric ton

1995/96 .......... 16 52 18 1 37 35 445

1996/97 .......... 14 58 22 1 39 38 415

1997/98 .......... 12 58 16 1 44 28 396

1998/99 .......... 12 46 15 2 39 33 470

1999/001......... 7 56 16 1 40 29 465

1

 Forecast, Feb. 2000.

Note.—Consumption includes unreported loss and residual use.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A-21

Table A-27

Grain: World supply and use, by principal marketing type, crop-year 1995/96 to 1999/00

Type/year Production

Total

supply1 Trade2 Total use Ending stocks

World

export

price3

——————————— Million (metric tons) ———————————

U.S. dollars

per metric

tons

Wheat:

1995/96 ............ 539 655 114 551 105 209

1996/97 ............ 583 689 125 577 113 184

1997/98 ............ 609 723 123 584 139 143

1998/99 ............ 589 728 121 591 136 119

1999/004............ 587 723 126 597 126 108

Coarse grains:

1995/96 ............ 802 938 108 843 95 169

1996/97 ............ 907 1,004 107 878 127 121

1997/98 ............ 883 1,011 100 875 136 109

1998/99 ............ 891 1,022 107 871 157 93

1999/004............ 875 1,033 114 882 151 91

Rice, milled:

1995/96 ............ 371 421 20 371 49 362

1996/97 ............ 380 430 20 380 50 338

1997/98 ............ 387 438 27 383 55 302

1998/99 ............ 394 449 27 389 60 284

1999/004............ 403 462 23 400 62 230

Total grains:

1995/96 ............ 1,711 2,014 243 1,765 249 -

1996/97 ............ 1,870 2,124 252 1,834 290 -

1997/98 ............ 1,880 2,174 252 1,844 329 -

1998/99 ............ 1,873 2,205 255 1,851 353 -

1999/004............ 1,865 2,218 264 1,879 339 -

1

 Production plus beginning stocks.

2

 Exports.

3

 Wheat price: U.S. wheat, No. 2, Hard Red Winter, ordinary protein f.o.b., U.S. Gulf Ports; U.S. coarse grain

price: U.S. corn, No. 2, yellow, U.S. Gulf Ports; Milled rice price: Thai milled rice, 100-percent, Grade B, f.o.b.

Bangkok, nominal price quote.

4

 Projected July 2000.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Supply and

Demand Estimates (various issues), Rice Outlook, July 13, 2000; Wheat Outlook, July 14, 2000; and Feed Outlook,

July 14, 2000.
A-22

Table A-28

Grain: U.S. production, exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, and

apparent U.S. consumption, 1995-99

Calendar year U.S. production U.S. exports U.S. imports

Apparent U.S.

consumption

Ratio of exports

to production

————————————— Million dollars ————————————— Percentage

1995 .......... 34,700 14,683 685 20,700 42

1996 .......... 38,200 16,760 791 22,330 44

1997 .......... 39,750 11,120 984 29,600 28

1998 .......... 35,070 10,002 772 25,840 29

1999 .......... 29,200 10,157 731 19,771 35

Note.—Changes in stocks are not accounted for in consumption. Production are for the prior crop year, ending in

the year shown.

Source: Production compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture; imports and exports

compiled form official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-23

Table A-29

Grain: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, imports for consumption, and merchandise

trade balance, by selected countries and country groups, 1995-99

Source 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

——————————— Million dollars —————————–––—

U.S. exports of domestic merchandise1:

Japan ......................... 2,732 3,504 2,886 2,244 2,194

Mexico ........................ 873 1,813 880 1,285 1,242

Korea ......................... 1,372 1,609 678 689 794

Egypt ......................... 1,036 1,090 763 706 770

Taiwan ........................ 934 1,199 862 533 602

EU-15 ........................ 792 684 565 444 383

Colombia ...................... 202 297 209 255 242

Philippines ..................... 331 405 325 258 248

Russia ........................ 63 46 20 5 219

Canada ....................... 191 227 214 208 174

Saudi Arabia ................... 244 253 254 176 168

All other ....................... 5,907 5,635 3,461 3,139 3,121

Total ....................... 14,684 16,671 11,120 10,002 10,157

U.S. imports for consumption1:

Japan ......................... (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Mexico ........................ 1 1 2 6 7

Korea ......................... (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Egypt ......................... (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

EU-15 ........................ 26 18 54 68 49

Taiwan ........................ (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Colombia ...................... 0 (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Philippines ..................... (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Russia ........................ (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Canada ....................... 541 620 723 513 490

Saudi Arabia ................... (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

All other ....................... 117 151 204 184 185

Total ....................... 685 791 984 772 731

U.S. merchandise trade balance:

Japan ......................... 2,732 3,504 2,886 2,244 2,194

Mexico ........................ 872 1,812 878 1,279 1,235

Korea ......................... 1,372 1,609 678 689 794

Egypt ......................... 1,036 1,090 763 706 770

Taiwan ........................ 934 1,199 862 533 602

EU-15 ........................ 766 666 511 376 334

Colombia ...................... 202 297 209 255 242

Philippines ..................... 331 405 325 258 248

Russia ........................ 63 46 20 5 219

Canada ....................... -351 -393 -509 -305 -316

Saudi Arabia ................... 244 253 254 176 168

All other ....................... 5,798 5,484 3,260 3,015 2,936

Total ....................... 13,999 15,880 10,136 9,230 9,426

1

 Imports are customs value; exports are f.a.s., U.S. port of export.

2

 Less than $500.000.

Note.—Totals may not add to the totals shown because of rounding.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-24

Table A-30

Grain: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by principal markets, 1995-99

Market 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

——————————————— Million dollars ——————————————

Japan ............... 2,732 3,504 2,886 2,243 2,194

Mexico ............... 873 1,813 880 1,285 1,242

Korea ............... 1,372 1,609 678 689 794

Egypt ................ 1,036 1,090 763 706 770

Taiwan .............. 934 1,199 862 533 602

EU .................. 792 684 565 444 383

Philippines ............ 331 405 325 258 248

Colombia ............. 209 297 209 255 242

Russia ............... 63 46 20 5 219

Canada .............. 191 227 214 208 174

Saudi Arabia .......... 244 253 254 176 168

All other .............. 5,907 5,635 3,461 3,139 3,121

Total .............. 14,684 16,761 11,120 10,002 10,157

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-25

Table A-31

Grain: Volume of U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by principal type, 1995-99

Type 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

—————— Quantity (1,000 metric tons) ——————

Wheat except seed:

Durum wheat ....................... 1,103 1,003 1,451 1,319 1,161

Wheat, except durum ............... 31,214 29,943 23,813 25,570 27,296

Subtotal all wheat ............... 32,317 30,946 25,264 26,889 28,457

Rye ................................. 1 1 1 2 4

Barley, except seed:

For malting purposes ................. 150 351 224 254 227

Other barley ....................... 1,085 698 1,402 308 466

Subtotal, all barley ................ 1,235 1,049 1,626 562 693

Oats, except seed ...................... 19 40 26 28 21

Corn, except seed:

Yellow dent corn:

U.S.1 ........................... 447 465 401 633 504,311

U.S.2 ........................... 30,402 25,427 19,111 18,952 27,904

U.S.3 ........................... 26,646 23,944 20,584 19,174 21,051

U.S.4 ........................... 2 2 12 52 2

Other ........................... 1,545 1,127 946 1,131 728

Popcorn ........................... 131 122 96 99 93

Other corn ......................... 976 1,212 550 1,175 1,585

Subtotal, all corn ................ 60,149 52,299 41,700 41,216 51,867

Rice:

Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) ......... 553 576 609 1,744 779

Husked (brown) rice:

Basmati ........................ 3 5 4 3 18

Other:

Long-grain ...................... 253 289 248 223 226

Medium-grain .................... 122 132 87 200 290

Short-grain ...................... 2 6 18 12 13

Mixtures of the above .............. 3 7 10 42 49

Semi-milled or wholly milled rice:

Parbroiled:

Long-grain ...................... 665 676 534 437 463

Other and mixtures ............... 131 56 74 166 84

Other:

Long-grain ...................... 911 562 416 557 733

Medium-grain .................... 545 456 404 224 139

Short-grain ...................... 6 11 18 36 39

Mixtures of the above .............. 8 23 21 24 18

Broken rice ..................... 73 40 66 52 88

Subtotal, all rice .................... 3,275 2,839 2,509 3,720 2,939

Grain sorghum except, seed ............. 5,522 4,807 5,077 4,906 5,790

Buckwheat .......................... 18 15 7 9 10

Millet .............................. 54 48 66 64 44

Canary seed ......................... 10 18 18 18 18

Wild rice ............................ 1 1 1 1 1

Other cereals, n.s.p.f. .................. 9 5 6 10 13

Grand total ........................ 102,609 92,068 76,301 77,425 89,685

1

 Less than 500 metric tons.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-26

Table A-32

Grain: U.S. imports for consumption, by principal sources, 1995-99

Source 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

——————————————— Million dollars ——————————————

Canada ............... 541 620 723 513 490

Thailand .............. 90 109 147 126 117

EU ................... 26 18 54 68 49

India ................. 20 29 30 40 41

China ................. (

1

) (

1

) 1 (

1

) 9

Australia .............. 0 0 (

1

) (

1

) 7

Mexico ................ 1 1 2 6 7

Pakistan .............. 5 4 4 8 7

Italy .................. 4 6 5 5 5

All other ............... 2 10 23 11 4

Total ............... 685 791 984 772 731

1

 Less than $500,000.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-27

Table A-33

Grain: Volume of U.S. imports for consumption, by principal type, 1995-99

Type 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

——————— Quantity (1,000 metric tons) 

Wheat except seed:

Durum wheat ......................... 306 245 427 422 643

Wheat, except durum .................. 1,196 1,042 1,770 1,567 1,551

Subtotal all wheat ................ 1,502 1,287 2,197 1,989 2,194

Rye .................................. 107 95 144 94 82

Barley, except seed:

For malting purposes .................. 708 642 706 592 597

Other .............................. 334 148 155 128 22

Subtotal, all barley ................ 1,042 790 861 720 619

Oats, except seed ....................... 1,519 1,339 1,897 1,735 1,653

Corn, except seed:

Yellow dent corn ...................... 258 332 234 210 277

Popcorn ............................ (

1

) (

1

) 7 (

1

) (

1

)

Other corn .......................... 8 6 13 15 52

Subtotal, all corn ................. 266 338 254 225 329

Rice:

Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) .......... 0 0 (

1

) (

1

) 0

Husked (brown) rice:

Basmati .......................... 8 10 12 19 20

Other:

Long-grain ...................... 1 1 1 5 8

Medium-grain .................... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Short-grain ...................... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) 1 1

Mixtures of the above .............. (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Semi-milled or wholly milled rice:

Parbroiled:

Long-grain ...................... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) 1 (

1

)

Other and mixtures ............... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Other:

Long-grain ...................... 158 196 208 204 201

Medium-grain .................... 30 34 35 32 84

Short-grain ...................... 4 4 4 5 6

Mixtures of the above .............. 19 19 17 21 14

Broken rice .......................... 3 10 34 8 19

Subtotal all rice .................... 223 274 311 296 353

Grain sorghum except, seed .............. (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Buckwheat ........................... 2 2 3 2 2

Millet ............................... 1 1 1 (

1

) 1

Canary seed ......................... 16 18 15 19 17

Wild rice ............................ 1 1 1 1 1

Other cereals, n.s.p.f. ................... 5 3 2 3 2

Grand total ........................ 4,684 4,148 5,686 5,084 5,253

1

 Less than 500 metric tons.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-28

Table A-34

Grain: Value of U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by principal type, 1995-99

Type 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

—————— Value (million dollars) ––––––––––

Wheat except seed:

Durum wheat ............................. 225 212 285 224 179

Wheat, except durum ...................... 5,215 6,052 3,810 3,473 3,427

Subtotal all wheat ..................... 5,440 6,264 4,095 3,697 3,606

Rye ....................................... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Barley, except seed:

For malting purposes ....................... 35 92 39 42 36

Other ................................... 142 118 172 33 48

Subtotal, all barley .................... 177 210 211 75 84

Oats, except seed ............................ 3 6 3 4 3

Corn, except seed:

Yellow dent corn:

U.S.1 ................................. 58 84 49 76 52

U.S.2 ................................. 3,764 4,156 2,398 2,047 2,664

U.S.3 ................................. 3,174 3,853 2,534 1,981 1,937

U.S.4 ................................. (

1

) (

1

) 1 4 (

1

)

Other ................................. 177 146 112 125 74

Popcorn ................................. 64 76 75 66 58

Other corn ............................... 130 165 78 148 189

Subtotal, all corn ..................... 7,367 8,480 5,247 4,447 4,974

Rice:

Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) ............... 109 138 143 416 157

Husked (brown) rice:

Basmati .............................. 1 2 1 1 5

Other:

Long-grain .............................. 77 103 98 76 70

Medium-grain ............................ 37 48 34 84 110

Short-grain .............................. 1 3 7 5 5

Mixtures of the above ...................... 1 3 4 14 15

Semi-milled or wholly milled rice:

Parbroiled:

Long-grain ............................ 243 294 245 190 181

Other and mixtures ..................... 40 20 28 63 39

Other:

Long-grain .............................. 299 214 173 221 254

Medium-grain ........................... 166 175 155 93 54

Short-grain ............................. 3 5 9 17 20

Mixtures of the above ..................... 3 8 8 9 6

Broken rice ............................... 17 16 26 18 26

Subtotal all rice ........................ 997 1,029 931 1,207 942

Grain sorghum except seed ................... 670 739 594 532 539

Buckwheat ................................ 6 5 2 3 3

Millet .................................... 11 11 14 12 10

Canary seed .............................. 3 7 5 5 6

Wild rice ................................. 3 4 5 5 5

Other cereals, n.s.p.f. ........................ 7 6 9 13 16

Grand total ............................. 14,684 16,761 11,120 10,002 10,157

1

 Less than $500,000.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-29

Table A-35

Grain: Value of U.S. imports for consumption, by principal type, 1995-99

Type 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

—–———––———— (Million dollars) ——––——––————

Wheat except seed:

Durum wheat ....................... 65 55 84 76 86

Wheat, except durum ................ 170 187 270 204 185

Subtotal all wheat .............. 235 242 354 280 272

Rye ................................ 11 13 21 11 7

Barley, except seed:

For malting purposes ................ 93 107 104 78 74

Other ............................ 30 21 21 14 3

Subtotal, all barley ............. 123 128 125 92 77

Oats, except seed ..................... 154 185 239 166 144

Corn, except seed:

Yellow dent corn .................... 29 51 27 21 25

Popcorn .......................... (

1

) (

1

) 3 (

1

) (

1

)

Other corn ........................ 2 2 4 4 9

Subtotal, all corn ............... 31 53 34 25 34

Rice:

Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) ........ (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) 0

Husked (brown) rice:

Basmati ....................... 7 9 11 18 18

Other:

Long-grain ....................... 1 1 1 3 4

Medium-grain ..................... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Short-grain ....................... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Mixtures of the above ............... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Semi-milled or wholly milled rice:

Parbroiled:

Long-grain .................... (

1

) (

1

) 1 (

1

) (

1

)

Other and mixtures .............. (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Other:

Long-grain ....................... 83 110 137 124 111

Medium-grain .................... 14 18 24 19 32

Short-grain ...................... 3 3 3 3 3

Mixtures of the above ............... 11 13 15 16 13

Broken rice ........................ 1 2 8 2 4

Subtotal all rice ................. 120 156 200 185 185

Grain sorghum except, seed ......... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Buckwheat ....................... 1 1 1 1 1

Millet ........................... 2 2 2 1 1

Canary seed ..................... 5 7 5 6 4

Wild rice ........................ 2 2 1 2 2

Other cereals, n.s.p.f. .............. 1 1 1 1 1

Grand total .................. 685 791 984 772 731

1

 Less than $500,000.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-30

Table A-36

Grain: Harmonized Tariff Schedule subheadings; description; U.S. column 1 rate of duty as of Jan. 1, 2000; U.S. exports, 1999; and U.S. imports,

1999

HTS

subheading Description

Column 1 rate of duty, as of

Jan. 1, 2000

General Special1

Bound

duty,

Uruguay

Round2

U.S. exports,

1999

U.S.

imports,

1999

— Million dollars —

Wheat and meslin:

1001.10.00 Durum wheat ..................................... 0.65¢/kg Free (A+,CA,E,IL,J)

0.2¢/kg (MX)

0.65¢/kg

Other than seed ................................ 179 86

Grade 1:

91 Having a specified dark hard vitreous

kernel content exceeding 84% ............... (

5

) 39

92 Having a specified dark hard vitreous

kernel content not exceeding 84% ............ (

5

) 32

Grade 2:

95 Having a specified dark hard vitreous

kernel content exceeding 84% ............... (

5

) 4

96 Having a specified dark hard vitreous

kernel content not exceeding 84% ............ (

5

) 8

99 Other ......................................

(

5

) 2

1001.90.20 Other wheat and meslin, except seed ................ 0.35¢/kg Free(A+,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 0.35¢/kg 3,427 185

Canadian western extra strong hard red

spring (CWES/HRS) wheat ................. (

5

) 2

Other:

Red spring wheat:

Grade 1 .............................

11 Having a specified protein content 

not exceeding 12.9% by weight ........ (

5

) 9

12 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 12.9% but not exceeding

13.3% by weight ................... (

5

) 17

13 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 13.3% but not exceeding

13.6% by weight ................... (

5

) 1

14 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 13.6% but not exceeding

13.9% by weight ................... (

5

) 5

16 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 13.9% but not exceeding

14.2% by weight ................... (

5

) 17

See footnotes at end of table.
A-31

Table A-36—Continued

Grain: Harmonized Tariff Schedule subheadings; description; U.S. column 1 rate of duty as of Jan. 1, 2000; U.S. exports, 1999; and U.S. imports,

1999

HTS

subheading Description

Column 1 rate of duty, as of

Jan. 1, 2000

General Special1

Bound

duty,

Uruguay

Round2

U.S.

exports,

1999

U.S.

imports,

1999

— Million dollars —

1001.90.20

(con).

Red spring wheat (con.):

19 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 14.2% by weight ........... (

5

) 19

Grade 2 .............................

21 Having a specified protein content 

not exceeding 12.9% by weight ........ (

5

) 13

22 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 12.9% but not

exceeding 13.3% by weight ......... (

5

) 3

23 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 13.3% but not exceeding

13.6% by weight ................... (

5

) 1

24 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 13.6% but not exceeding

13.9% by weight ................... (

5

) 5

26 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 13.9% but not

exceeding 14.2% by weight ........... (

5

) 24

29 Having a specified protein content 

exceeding 14.2% by weight ........... (

5

) 43

35 Other red spring wheat .............. (

5

) 2

40 White winter wheat ................. (

5

) 11

50 “Canadian” western red winter

 wheat ........................ (

5

) 3

60 Soft white spring wheat .............. (

5

) 1

96 Other ............................ (

5

) 11

1002.00.00 90 Rye ................................................ Free (

3

) Free (

4

) 5

1003.00 Barley:

1003.00.20 00 For malting purposes ................................ 0.1¢/kg Free(A+,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 0.1¢/kg 36 74

1003.00.40 Other ............................................ 0.15¢/kg Free(A+,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 0.15¢/kg

90 Other than seed .................................. 48 3

1004.00.00 Oats ............................................... Free (

3

) Free 3 145

20 Mixed feed oats, except seed .......................... (

5

) 18

90 Other, except seed .................................. (

5

) 127

See footnotes at end of table.
Table A-36—Continued

Grain: Harmonized Tariff Schedule subheadings; description; U.S. column 1 rate of duty as of Jan. 1, 2000; U.S. exports, 1999; and U.S. imports,

1999

HTS

subheading Description

Column 1 rate of duty, as of

Jan. 1, 2000

General Special1

Bound

duty,

Uruguay

Round2

U.S.

exports,

1999

U.S.

imports,

1999

— Million dollars —

A-32

1005 Corn (maize):

1005.90 Other than seed:

1005.90.20 00 Yellow dent corn ................................ 0.05¢/kg Free(A*,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 0.05¢/kg 4,727 25

1005.90.40 Other ....................................... 0.25¢/kg Free (A*,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 0.25¢/kg

40 Popcorn ................................... 58 (

4

)

60 Other ..................................... 189 9

1006 Rice:

1006.10.00 Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) ....................... 1.8¢/kg Free(A+,CA,E,IL,J)

0.8¢/kg (MX)

1.8¢/kg 157 0

1006.20 Husked (brown) rice:

1006.20.20 00 Basmati ...................................... 0.83¢/kg Free(A+,CA,E,Il,J)

0.3¢/kg (MX)

0.83¢/kg 5 18

1006.20.40 Other ........................................ 2.1¢/kg Free(A+,CA,E,IL,J)

0.9¢/kg (MX) 2.1¢/kg

20 Long grain ................................... 70 4

40 Medium grain ................................. 110 (

4

)

60 Short grain ................................... 5 (

4

)

80 Mixtures of any of the above ...................... 15 (

4

)

1006.30 Semi-milled or wholly milled rice, whether

or not polished or glazed:

1006.30.10 Parboiled ...................................... 11.2% Free(A*,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 11.2% (

4

)

20 Long grain ................................... 181 (

4

)

40 Other, including mixtures ........................ 39 (

4

)

1006.30.90 Other ......................................... 1.4¢/kg Free(A+,CA,E,IL,J)

0.6¢/kg (MX)

1.4¢/kg (

4

)

10 Long grain ................................... 254 111

20 Medium grain ................................. 54 32

30 Short grain ................................... 20 3

40 Mixtures of any of the above ...................... 6 13

1006.40 00 Broken rice ....................................... 0.44¢/kg Free(A+,CA,E,IL,J)

0.2¢/kg

0.44¢/kg 26 4

See footnotes at end of table.
A-33

Table A-36–Continued

Grain: Harmonized Tariff Schedule subheadings; description; U.S. column 1 rate of duty as of Jan. 1, 2000; U.S. exports, 1999; and U.S. imports,

1999

HTS

subheading Description

Column 1 rate of duty, as of

Jan. 1, 2000

General Special1

Bound

duty,

Uruguay

Round2

U.S. exports,

1999

U.S.

imports,

1999

— Million dollars —

1007.00.00 Grain sorghum .................................... 0.22¢/kg Free(A*,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 0.22¢/kg

40 Other than seed ................................ 539 (

4

)

1008 Buckwheat, millet and canary seed; other cereals

(including wild rice):

1008.10.00 00 Buckwheat .................................... Free (

3

) Free 3 1

1008.20.00 00 Millet ......................................... 0.32¢/kg Free(A+,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 0.32¢/kg 10 1

1008.30.00 00 Canary seed ................................... 0.12¢/kg Free(A,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 0.12¢/kg 6 4

1008.90.00 Other cereals (including wild rice) .................. 1.1% Free(A+,CA,E,IL,J,MX) 1.1%

20 Wild rice .................................... 5 2

40 Other ...................................... 16 1

1

 Programs under which special tariff treatment may be provided, and the corresponding symbols for such programs as they are indicated in the “Special” subcolumn, are as follows:

Generalized System of Preferences (A); North America Trade Agreement (NAFTA), goods of Canada (CA); NAFTA, goods of Mexico (MX); Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act (E);

United States-Israel Free Trade Area (IL); and Andean Trade Preference Act (J).

2

 Bound rates of duty were obtained from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Uruguay Round, Draft Uruguay Round Tariff Schedules of the United States, Vol. 1 Agriculture.

3

 Not applicable since the column 1 rate of duty is free.

4

 Less than $500,000.

5

 Not separately reported.

Note.—The products specified in the headings of chapter 10 are to be classified in those headings only if grains are present, whether or not in the ear or on the stalk. Chapter 10 does not

cover grains which have been hulled or otherwise worked. However, rice, husked, milled, polished, glazed, parboiled or broken remains classified in heading 1006. Heading 1005 does not

cover sweet corn (chapter 7). The term “durum wheat” means wheat of the Triticum durum species and the hybrids derived from the interspecific crossing of Triticum durum which have the

same number (28) of chromosomes as that species.

Source: U.S. exports and imports compiled form official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-34

Table A-37

Corn: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by leading markets, 1995-99

Source 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

—————––––——— 1,000 metric tons —–––––———————

Japan ........................ 15,965 14,893 15,418 13,996 14,999

South Korea ................... 8,960 7,969 3,341 4,398 6,050

Mexico ........................ 2,877 6,333 2,584 5,266 5,068

Taiwan ....................... 6,062 5,722 5,440 3,466 4,732

Egypt ......................... 2,267 1,988 2,168 1,917 3,092

Colombia ...................... 890 1,231 1,213 1,151 1,587

Saudi Arabia ................... 951 840 1,033 1,001 1,176

Venezuela ..................... 828 639 682 887 1,108

Canada ....................... 1,037 872 1,045 1,179 983

EU ........................... 3,540 1,858 1,587 346 42

China ......................... 5,357 108 (

1

) 367 108

All other ....................... 11,416 9,847 7,189 7,241 12,921

Total ....................... 60,150 52,300 41,700 41,215 51,866

————––––————— Million dollars ——–––––———————

Japan ........................ 1,906 2,455 1,915 1,484 1,426

South Korea ................... 1,110 1,260 450 465 575

Mexico ........................ 364 1,012 329 600 535

Taiwan ....................... 771 962 693 377 464

Egypt ......................... 274 312 260 188 283

Colombia ...................... 113 201 150 122 150

Saudi Arabia ................... 117 137 128 109 109

Venezuela ..................... 103 105 94 92 105

Canada ....................... 118 144 127 126 92

EU ........................... 435 329 213 55 19

China ......................... 629 14 (

2

) 44 16

All other ....................... 1,428 1,549 888 786 1,200

Total ....................... 7,368 8,480 5,247 4,448 4,974

1

 Less than 500 metric tons.

2

 Less than $500,000.

Note.—Excludes seed corn, and all milled corn products.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-35

Table A-38

Wheat: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by leading markets, 1995-99

Source 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

—————––––——— 1,000 metric tons —–––––———————

Egypt .......................... 4,834 4,046 3,504 4,253 4,439

Japan ......................... 2,886 2,918 3,194 3,125 3,207

Philippines ...................... 1,807 1,551 1,806 1,542 1,741

Mexico ......................... 791 1,554 1,067 1,591 1,824

South Korea .................... 1,461 1,613 1,309 1,503 1,664

EU ............................ 623 652 1,029 1,258 1,357

Nigeria ......................... 596 744 622 1,030 1,201

Russia ......................... 323 136 51 35 1,170

Taiwan ........................ 819 941 909 932 908

Colombia ....................... 518 421 320 463 786

China .......................... 3,649 2,214 296 316 258

All other ........................ 14,010 14,156 11,157 10,841 9,902

Total ........................ 32,317 30,946 25,264 26,889 28,457

———–––––————— Million dollars ——–––––———————

Egypt .......................... 760 775 502 514 487

Japan ......................... 511 637 554 472 453

Philippines ...................... 299 325 308 223 235

Mexico ......................... 145 325 176 214 215

South Korea .................... 260 328 222 216 210

EU ............................ 126 136 196 208 204

Nigeria ......................... 96 157 101 136 147

Russia ......................... 53 29 9 4 140

Taiwan ........................ 156 216 161 151 137

Colombia ....................... 98 88 50 59 91

China .......................... 500 426 44 46 33

All other ........................ 2,437 2,823 1,766 1,454 1,254

Total ........................ 5,441 6,265 4,089 3,697 3,606

Note.—Excludes wheat seed and all milled wheat products.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-36

Table A-39

Rice: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by leading markets, 1995-99

Source 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

—————––––——— 1,000 metric tons —–––––———————

Japan ......................... 66 224 225 253 339

EU ............................ 338 352 298 367 367

Mexico ......................... 308 390 385 396 411

Canada ........................ 167 168 171 170 181

Haiti ........................... 192 167 172 181 215

Saudi Arabia .................... 176 142 115 144 119

Indonesia ....................... 93 (

1

) (

1

) 66 173

All other ........................ 1,936 1,396 1,142 3,145 1,133

Total ........................ 3,276 2,839 2,508 3,722 2,938

———–––––————— Million dollars ——–––––———————

Japan ......................... 31 98 114 116 144

EU ............................ 98 139 122 143 123

Mexico ......................... 74 95 93 91 88

Canada ........................ 67 75 79 73 74

Haiti ........................... 58 62 66 61 70

Saudi Arabia .................... 82 71 56 67 59

Indonesia ....................... 30 (

2

) (

2

) 24 52

All other ........................ 556 489 402 633 334

Total ........................ 996 1,029 932 1,208 944

1

 Less than 500 metric tons.

2

 Less than $500,000. 

Note.—Includes all rice products classified under HS heading 1006

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Table A-40

Sorghum: U.S. exports of domestic merchandise, by leading markets, 1995-99

Source 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

—————––––——— 1,000 metric tons —–––––———————

Mexico ......................... 2,150 1,971 2,136 3,205 4,027

Japan ......................... 1,862 1,747 2,233 1,273 1,291

EU ............................ 906 382 127 204 197

Israel .......................... 253 338 406 66 141

All other ........................ 351 370 174 159 135

Total ........................ 5,522 4,808 5,076 4,907 5,791

———–––––————— Million dollars ——–––––———————

Mexico ......................... 255 299 250 349 376

Japan ......................... 218 269 263 134 118

EU ............................ 122 61 15 24 19

Israel .......................... 31 56 46 7 13

All other ........................ 44 54 20 18 13

Total ........................ 670 739 594 532 539

Note.—Excludes sorghum seed.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
A-37

Table A-41

Wheat: World imports, by leading markets, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

Country/region 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/001

––––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons ––––––––––––––––––––

Egypt .......................... 6 7 7 7 6

Brazil .......................... 6 6 6 7 7

Iran ........................... 3 7 4 3 7

Japan ......................... 6 6 6 6 6

Algeria ......................... 4 4 5 4 4

South Korea .................... 3 4 4 5 6

All others ....................... 71 70 72 68 69

Total ........................ 99 104 104 100 104

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding. Data include wheat flour and other milled wheat products.

Marketing year, beginning July 1.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA.

Table A-42

Corn: World imports, by leading markets, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

Country/region 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/001

––––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons ––––––––––––––––––––

Japan ........................ 16 16 16 17 16

South Korea ................... 9 8 8 8 9

Mexico ........................ 6 3 4 6 5

Egypt ......................... 2 3 3 4 4

Taiwan ....................... 6 6 4 5 5

EU ........................... 3 3 2 3 2

All others ...................... 22 28 26 26 29

Total ....................... 64 67 63 69 70

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding. Marketing year, beginning Oct. 1.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA.

Table A-43

Barley: World imports, by leading markets, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

Country/region 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/001

––––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons ––––––––––––––––––––

Saudi Arabia .................... 4 6 4 5 5

China .......................... 1 2 1 2 2

Japan ......................... 2 1 1 1 1

Iran ........................... (

2

) 1 (

2

) 1 1

All others ....................... 6 8 7 8 8

Total ........................ 13 18 13 17 17

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

2

 Less than 500,000 metric tons.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding. Marketing year, beginning Oct. 1.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA.
A-38

Table A-44

Coarse grain: World imports, by leading markets, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

Country/region 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/001

––––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons ––––––––––––––––––––

Japan .......................... 21 21 21 20 20

South Korea ..................... 10 9 8 8 9

Mexico .......................... 9 5 8 9 9

Saudi Arabia ..................... 5 7 5 6 6

Taiwan ......................... 6 6 5 5 5

Egypt ........................... 2 3 3 4 4

EU ............................. 4 3 2 3 3

China ........................... 3 2 3 3 3

All others ........................ 27 39 31 38 39

Total ......................... 87 95 86 96 98

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding. Marketing year, beginning Oct. 1.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA.

Table A-45

Rice: World imports, by leading markets, 1996-2000

Country/region 1996 1997 1998 1999 20001

––––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons ––––––––––––––––––––

Indonesia ....................... 1 1 6 3 2

Bangladesh ..................... 1 (

2

) 2 2 1

Brazil .......................... 1 1 1 1 1

Philippines ...................... 1 1 2 1 1

Iran ........................... 1 1 1 1 1

Saudi Arabia .................... 1 1 1 1 1

Nigeria ......................... (

2

) 1 1 1 1

All others ....................... 14 13 13 15 15

Total ........................ 20 19 27 25 23

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

2

 Less than 500,000 metric tons.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA.

Table A-46

Wheat: World exports, by leading suppliers, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

Country/region 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/001

––––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons ––––––––––––––––––––

United States ................... 34 27 28 29 29

Canada ....................... 17 18 21 15 18

Australia ...................... 12 18 15 16 18

EU ........................... 13 18 14 16 16

Argentina ...................... 4 10 10 9 10

All others ...................... 19 13 16 15 13

Total ....................... 99 104 104 100 104

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding. Data include wheat flour and other milled wheat products.

Marketing year, beginning July 1.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA..
A-39

Table A-47

Corn: World exports, by leading suppliers, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

Country/region 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/001

––––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons ––––––––––––––––––––

United States ................... 53 47 38 52 48

Argentina ...................... 7 10 13 8 8

China ......................... (

2

) 4 6 4 8

All others ...................... 4 6 6 6 6

Total ....................... 64 67 63 69 70

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

2

 Less than $500 metric tons.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding. Marketing year, beginning Oct. 1.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA.

Table A-48

Barley: World exports, by leading suppliers, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

Country/region 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/001

––––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons ––––––––––––––––––––

EU ........................... 2 6 3 8 9

Australia ...................... 3 4 3 4 3

Canada ....................... 3 3 2 1 2

All others ...................... 5 5 5 4 3

Total ....................... 13 18 13 17 17

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding. Marketing year, beginning Oct. 1.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA.

Table A-49

Coarse grain: World exports, by leading suppliers, crop-years 1995/96 to 1999/00

Country/region 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/001

––––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons ––––––––––––––––––––

United States .................... 59 53 44 58 54

EU ............................ 4 8 5 10 12

Argentina ....................... 8 11 14 9 9

Canada ........................ 4 6 3 3 4

China .......................... (

2

) 4 6 3 8

All others ....................... 16 13 14 13 11

Total ........................ 87 95 86 96 98

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

2

 Less than 500,000 metric tons.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding. Marketing year, beginning Oct. 1.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA.
A-40

Table A-50

Rice: World exports, by leading suppliers, 1996-2000

Country/region 1996 1997 1998 1999 20001

––––––––––––––––––– Million metric tons –––––––––––––––––––

Thailand ........................ 5 5 6 6 6

Vietnam ......................... 3 3 4 4 4

United States ..................... 3 2 3 3 3

China ........................... (

2

) 1 4 3 3

India ........................... 4 2 4 3 2

Pakistan ........................ 2 2 2 2 2

All others ........................ 3 4 4 4 3

Total ......................... 20 19 27 25 23

1

 Projected Feb. 2000.

2

 Less than 500,000 metric tons.

Note.—Totals may vary because of rounding.

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the USDA.
APPENDIX B

EXPLANATION OF TARIFF AND TRADE

AGREEMENT TERMS
B-2

TARIFF AND TRADE AGREEMENT TERMS

In the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTS), chapters 1 through 97 cover all

goods in trade and incorporate in the tariff nomenclature the internationally adopted Harmonized

Commodity Description and Coding System through the 6-digit level of product description.

Subordinate 8-digit product subdivisions, either enacted by Congress or proclaimed by the President,

allow more narrowly applicable duty rates; 10-digit administrative statistical reporting numbers

provide data of national interest. Chapters 98 and 99 contain special U.S. classifications and

temporary rate provisions, respectively. The HTS replaced the Tariff Schedules of the United States

(TSUS) effective January 1, 1989.

Duty rates in the general subcolumn of HTS column 1 are normal trade relations rates, many of

which have been eliminated or are being reduced as concessions resulting from the Uruguay Round

of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. Column 1-general duty rates apply to all countries except those

listed in HTS general note 3(b) (Afghanistan, Cuba, Laos, North Korea, and Vietnam) plus Serbia

and Montenegro, which are subject to the statutory rates set forth in column 2. Specified goods from

designated general-rate countries may be eligible for reduced rates of duty or for duty-free entry

under one or more preferential tariff programs. Such tariff treatment is set forth in the special

subcolumn of HTS rate of duty column 1 or in the general notes. If eligibility for special tariff rates

is not claimed or established, goods are dutiable at column 1-general rates. The HTS does not

enumerate those countries as to which a total or partial embargo has been declared.

TheGeneralized System of Preferences (GSP) affords nonreciprocal tariff preferences to developing

countries to aid their economic development and to diversify and expand their production and

exports. The U.S. GSP, enacted in title V of the Trade Act of 1974 for 10 years and extended

several times thereafter, applies to merchandise imported on or after January 1, 1976 and before the

close of September 30, 2001. Indicated by the symbol "A", "A*", or "A+" in the special subcolumn,

the GSP provides duty-free entry to eligible articles the product of and imported directly from

designated beneficiary developing countries, as set forth in general note 4 to the HTS.

The Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act (CBERA) affords nonreciprocal tariff preferences

to developing countries in the Caribbean Basin area to aid their economic development and to

diversify and expand their production and exports. The CBERA, enacted in title II of Public Law

98-67, implemented by Presidential Proclamation 5133 of November 30, 1983, and amended by the

Customs and Trade Act of 1990, applies to merchandise entered, or withdrawn from warehouse for

consumption, on or after January 1, 1984. Indicated by the symbol "E" or "E*" in the special

subcolumn, the CBERA provides duty-free entry to eligible articles, and reduced-duty treatment to

certain other articles, which are the product of and imported directly from designated countries, as

set forth in general note 7 to the HTS.

Free rates of duty in the special subcolumn followed by the symbol "IL" are applicable to products

of Israel under the United States-Israel Free Trade Area Implementation Act of 1985 (IFTA), as

provided in general note 8 to the HTS. 
B-3

Preferential nonreciprocal duty-free or reduced-duty treatment in the special subcolumn followed by

the symbol "J" or "J*" in parentheses is afforded to eligible articles the product of designated

beneficiary countries under the Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPA), enacted as title II of Public

Law 102-182 and implemented by Presidential Proclamation 6455 of July 2, 1992 (effective July 22,

1992), as set forth in general note 11 to the HTS.

Preferential free rates of duty in the special subcolumn followed by the symbol "CA" are applicable

to eligible goods of Canada, and rates followed by the symbol "MX" are applicable to eligible goods

of Mexico, under the North American Free Trade Agreement, as provided in general note 12 to the

HTS and implemented effective January 1, 1994 by Presidential Proclamation 6641 of December

15, 1993. Goods must originate in the NAFTA region under rules set forth in general note 12(t) and

meet other requirements of the note and applicable regulations.

Other special tariff treatment applies to particular products of insular possessions (general note

3(a)(iv)), products of the West Bank and Gaza Strip (general note 3(a)(v)), goods covered by the

Automotive Products Trade Act (APTA) (general note 5) and the Agreement on Trade in Civil

Aircraft (ATCA) (general note 6), articles imported from freely associated states (general note 10),

pharmaceutical products (general note 13), and intermediate chemicals for dyes (general note 14).

The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994 (GATT 1994), pursuant to the Agreement

Establishing the World Trade Organization, is based upon the earlier GATT 1947 (61 Stat. (pt. 5)

A58; 8 UST (pt. 2) 1786) as the primary multilateral system of disciplines and principles governing

international trade. Signatories' obligations under both the 1994 and 1947 agreements focus upon

most-favored-nation treatment, the maintenance of scheduled concession rates of duty, and national

treatment for imported products; the GATT also provides the legal framework for customs valuation

standards, "escape clause" (emergency) actions, antidumping and countervailing duties, dispute

settlement, and other measures. The results of the Uruguay Round of multilateral tariff negotiations

are set forth by way of separate schedules of concessions for each participating contracting party,

with the U.S. schedule designated as Schedule XX. Pursuant to the Agreement on Textiles and

Clothing (ATC) of the GATT 1994, member countries are phasing out restrictions on imports under

the prior "Arrangement Regarding International Trade in Textiles" (known as the Multifiber

Arrangement (MFA)). Under the MFA, which was a departure from GATT 1947 provisions,

importing and exporting countries negotiated bilateral agreements limiting textile and apparel

shipments, and importing countries could take unilateral action in the absence or violation of an

agreement. Quantitative limits had been established on imported textiles and apparel of cotton, other

vegetable fibers, wool, man-made fibers or silk blends in an effort to prevent or limit market

disruption in the importing countries. The ATC establishes notification and safeguard procedures,

along with other rules concerning the customs treatment of textile and apparel shipments, and calls

for the eventual complete integration of this sector into the GATT 1994 over a ten-year period, or

by Jan. 1, 2005.

 

OMB No.: 3117- 0188

ITC READER SATISFACTION SURVEY

Industry and Trade Summary: Grain (Cereals)

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