AEO New Construction

Historical Shipments

NOTE:

Lifetime CFLK lifetime distribution assumed in the NIA.

AEO projections for new construction starts and estimated demolitions.

Historical shipments of CFLKs.

To ensure calculations update correctly, set calculations and data tables to update automatically in the Formulas 

calculation times, enable multi-threaded calculations under 'Advanced' in Excel Options .

Price Price trend by efficiency level over the course of the analysis period.

Electricity Prices National electricity price projections.

Full-Fuel Cycle Multipliers Conversion factors to convert site electricity use to primary energy use (at the power plant) and full-fuel cycle.

NIA Savings Calculated NIA savings for a potential standard at selected TSL.

Parameters and 

Assumptions Inputs to the consumer-choice model shipments model and NIA model.

Shipments Shipments projections for the no-standard, TSL 0, and selected TSL case for the selected 'Shipments Scenario'.

NIAcom

Detailed calculations of energy for electricity use, total installed cost, and operating cost in the commercial secto

on the 'NIA summary and options' for the no-standard case, TSL 0 case, and at the chosen TSL.

This spreadsheet is the National Impact Analysis (NIA) of potential standards for ceiling fan light kits (CFLKs). The NIA calculates the total nat

equpiment costs, and operating savings over the 30-year shipments analysis period. The main outputs are cumulative energy savings, and ne

associated with a potential standard level. The various worksheets are described below.

NIA options and 

summary

Summary results for selected product class including main NIA outputs. The user can adjust various parameters (

this worksheet. Results update automatically in the summary table.

NIAres

Detailed calculations of energy for electricity use, total installed cost, and operating cost in the residential sector 

the 'NIA summary and options' for the no-standard case, TSL 0 case, and at the chosen TSL.
e automatically in the Formulas Toolbar. To speed up 

wer plant) and full-fuel cycle.

elected 'Shipments Scenario'.

ng cost in the commercial sector for the selected TSL 

The NIA calculates the total national enery savings, 

mulative energy savings, and net present value 

can adjust various parameters (highlighed cells) from 

ng cost in the residential sector for the selcted TSL on 
Description Options

Starting Year of Analysis 2019

Discount Rate Year 2015

TSL 1

Shipment Scenario Reference

Relamping? 1

Electricity Price Scenario Reference

Rebound Factor 0
NIA Summary of Results by TSL

Notes quads Site Savings

TSL To TSL0 TSL0 to TSL

1 0.002 0.000

2 0.002 0.014

3 0.002 0.020

4 0.002 0.021

billion 2014$ Oper. Cost Savings @3%

TSL To TSL0 TSL0 to TSL

1 = Yes, 0 = No 1 0.264 0.000

2 0.263 0.467

3 0.264 0.649

Range from 0 to 1; 0 implies no rebound. 4 0.264 0.662

billion 2014$ Oper. Cost Savings @7%

TSL To TSL0 TSL0 to TSL

1 0.255 0.000

2 0.255 0.307

3 0.255 0.423

4 0.255 0.430

Changing selected TSL updates calculations for 

NIAres, NIAcom, and NIA Savings worksheets. 

Summary tables shows results for all TSLs.
Results by TSL

Primary Savings FFC Savings

Total To TSL0 TSL0 to TSL Total To TSL0 TSL0 to TSL Total

0.002 0.008 0.000 0.008 0.008 0.000 0.008

0.016 0.008 0.039 0.047 0.008 0.040 0.049

0.022 0.008 0.057 0.065 0.008 0.059 0.068

0.023 0.008 0.058 0.066 0.008 0.061 0.069

Cost Savings @3% Installed Cost @ 3% NPV @3%

Total To TSL0 TSL0 to TSL Total To TSL0 TSL0 to TSL Total

0.264 0.053 0.000 0.053 0.210 0.000 0.210

0.731 0.053 0.018 0.071 0.210 0.449 0.660

0.913 0.053 -0.087 -0.033 0.210 0.736 0.946

0.926 0.053 -0.095 -0.041 0.210 0.756 0.967

Cost Savings @7% Installed Cost @ 7% NPV @7%

Total To TSL0 TSL0 to TSL Total To TSL0 TSL0 to TSL Total

0.255 0.046 0.000 0.046 0.209 0.000 0.209

0.562 0.046 0.015 0.061 0.209 0.292 0.501

0.678 0.046 -0.062 -0.017 0.210 0.486 0.695

0.686 0.046 -0.068 -0.022 0.210 0.498 0.708
No Standard to TSL 0

Year Shipments Affected 

Stock

Site 

Savings

Primary 

Savings

FFC 

Savings

Cost Increase

Cost Increase @ 

3%

millions millions quads quads quads billions 2014$ billions 2014$

10 2019 17.74 17.74 0.004 0.013 0.014 0.06 0.05

11 2020 18.09 35.82 0.003 0.010 0.010 0.00 0.00

12 2021 18.13 53.95 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 0.00 0.00

13 2022 18.23 72.18 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

14 2023 18.36 90.54 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

15 2024 18.52 108.95 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

16 2025 18.69 127.13 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

17 2026 18.81 144.75 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

18 2027 18.91 161.56 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

19 2028 18.97 177.30 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

20 2029 19.12 191.91 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

21 2030 19.31 205.33 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

22 2031 19.45 217.44 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

23 2032 19.52 228.18 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00

24 2033 19.69 237.68 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

25 2034 19.86 246.02 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

26 2035 20.05 253.32 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

27 2036 20.22 259.66 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

28 2037 20.37 265.16 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

29 2038 20.51 269.93 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

30 2039 20.63 274.08 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

31 2040 20.80 277.75 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

32 2041 21.02 281.12 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

33 2042 21.18 284.18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

34 2043 21.34 287.02 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

35 2044 21.50 289.70 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

36 2045 21.65 292.25 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

37 2046 21.81 294.72 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

38 2047 21.97 297.13 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

39 2048 22.13 299.50 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

40 2049 0.00 279.48 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

41 2050 0.00 259.32 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

42 2051 0.00 238.99 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

43 2052 0.00 218.51 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

44 2053 0.00 197.88 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

45 2054 0.00 177.22 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

46 2055 0.00 156.90 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

47 2056 0.00 137.26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

48 2057 0.00 118.62 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

49 2058 0.00 101.22 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

50 2059 0.00 85.26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

51 2060 0.00 70.86 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

52 2061 0.00 58.10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

53 2062 0.00 46.98 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

54 2063 0.00 37.46 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

55 2064 0.00 29.43 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

56 2065 0.00 22.79 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

57 2066 0.00 17.37 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

58 2067 0.00 13.04 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

59 2068 0.00 9.63 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

60 2069 0.00 6.99 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

61 2070 0.00 4.98 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00
62 2071 0.00 3.47 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

63 2072 0.00 2.36 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

64 2073 0.00 1.56 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

65 2074 0.00 0.99 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

66 2075 0.00 0.59 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

67 2076 0.00 0.31 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

68 2077 0.00 0.13 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

69 2078 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

70 2079 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

71 2080 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00

Electric Site Savings 0.002 0.002

Electric Power Plant Savings 0.008 0.008

Electric Upstream Savings 0.008 0.008

Installed Cost Increase 0.06 0.06

Installed Cost Increase (3%) 0.05 0.05

Installed Cost Increase (7%) 0.05 0.05

Operational Cost Savings 0.25 0.25

Operational Cost Savings (3%) 0.26 0.26

Operational Cost Savings (7%) 0.26 0.26

NPV 0.19 0.19

NPV (3%) 0.21 0.21

NPV (7%) 0.21 0.21
Cost Increase @ 

7%

Operating Cost 

Savings

Operating Cost 

Savings @ 3%

Operating Cost 

Savings @ 7%

NPV NPV @ 3% NPV @ 7%

billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$

0.05 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08

0.00 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.10

0.00 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.19 0.16 0.13

0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01

0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01

0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01

0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01

0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00

0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01

0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00

0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00

0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00

0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00

0.00 -0.06 -0.03 -0.02 -0.06 -0.03 -0.02

0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
No Standard to TSL1

Year Shipments Affected 

Stock

Site 

Savings

Primary 

Savings

FFC 

Savings

Cost Increase

Cost Increase @ 

3%

Cost Increase @ 

7%

millions millions quads quads quads billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$

2019 17.74 17.74 0.004 0.013 0.014 0.06 0.05 0.05

2020 18.09 35.82 0.003 0.010 0.010 0.00 0.00 0.00

2021 18.13 53.95 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 0.00 0.00 0.00

2022 18.23 72.18 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2023 18.36 90.54 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2024 18.52 108.95 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2025 18.69 127.13 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2026 18.81 144.75 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2027 18.91 161.56 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2028 18.97 177.30 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2029 19.12 191.91 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2030 19.31 205.33 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2031 19.45 217.44 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2032 19.52 228.18 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00

2033 19.69 237.68 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2034 19.86 246.02 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2035 20.05 253.32 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2036 20.22 259.66 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2037 20.37 265.16 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2038 20.51 269.93 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2039 20.63 274.08 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2040 20.80 277.75 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2041 21.02 281.12 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2042 21.18 284.18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2043 21.34 287.02 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2044 21.50 289.70 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2045 21.65 292.25 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2046 21.81 294.72 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2047 21.97 297.13 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2048 22.13 299.50 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2049 0.00 279.48 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2050 0.00 259.32 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2051 0.00 238.99 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2052 0.00 218.51 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2053 0.00 197.88 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2054 0.00 177.22 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2055 0.00 156.90 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2056 0.00 137.26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2057 0.00 118.62 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2058 0.00 101.22 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2059 0.00 85.26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2060 0.00 70.86 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2061 0.00 58.10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2062 0.00 46.98 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2063 0.00 37.46 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2064 0.00 29.43 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2065 0.00 22.79 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2066 0.00 17.37 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2067 0.00 13.04 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2068 0.00 9.63 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2069 0.00 6.99 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2070 0.00 4.98 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00
2071 0.00 3.47 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2072 0.00 2.36 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2073 0.00 1.56 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2074 0.00 0.99 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2075 0.00 0.59 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2076 0.00 0.31 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2077 0.00 0.13 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2078 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2079 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00

2080 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00
Operating Cost 

Savings

Operating Cost 

Savings @ 3%

Operating Cost 

Savings @ 7%

NPV NPV @ 3% NPV @ 7%

billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$

0.17 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08

0.15 0.13 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.10

0.19 0.16 0.13 0.19 0.16 0.13

-0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01

-0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01

-0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01

-0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01

-0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00

-0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01

-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

-0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00

-0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00

-0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00

-0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00

-0.06 -0.03 -0.02 -0.06 -0.03 -0.02

-0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
No Standard Case

Year Shipments Affected 

Stock

Electricity 

Use

Unit 

Equipment 

Cost

Total Equipment 

Cost

Replacment 

Lamp Cost

millions millions quads 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$

TSL 1 10 2019 16.849 16.849 0.005 30.32 0.511 0.000

Shipments Scenario 1 11 2020 17.183 34.032 0.006 33.70 0.579 0.000

12 2021 17.219 51.251 0.003 33.19 0.571 0.212

13 2022 17.319 68.570 0.004 32.85 0.569 0.000

14 2023 17.442 86.012 0.005 32.51 0.567 0.000

15 2024 17.594 103.502 0.006 32.19 0.566 0.000

16 2025 17.751 120.770 0.007 31.90 0.566 0.000

17 2026 17.872 137.517 0.007 31.64 0.566 0.000

18 2027 17.965 153.482 0.008 31.42 0.564 0.000

19 2028 18.023 168.436 0.009 31.22 0.563 0.000

20 2029 18.168 182.319 0.009 31.04 0.564 0.000

21 2030 18.349 195.065 0.010 30.89 0.567 0.000

22 2031 18.473 206.567 0.010 30.76 0.568 0.000

23 2032 18.548 216.772 0.011 30.64 0.568 0.000

24 2033 18.703 225.794 0.011 30.53 0.571 0.045

25 2034 18.871 233.719 0.011 30.44 0.574 0.049

26 2035 19.050 240.650 0.012 30.35 0.578 0.000

27 2036 19.205 246.673 0.012 30.27 0.581 0.000

28 2037 19.350 251.898 0.012 30.20 0.584 0.000

29 2038 19.489 256.436 0.012 30.13 0.587 0.000

30 2039 19.601 260.376 0.013 30.06 0.589 0.000

31 2040 19.756 263.867 0.013 30.00 0.593 0.000

32 2041 19.971 267.061 0.013 29.94 0.598 0.000

33 2042 20.121 269.974 0.013 29.88 0.601 0.000

34 2043 20.270 272.673 0.013 29.83 0.605 0.000

35 2044 20.421 275.214 0.013 29.78 0.608 0.000

36 2045 20.571 277.639 0.013 29.73 0.612 0.000

37 2046 20.720 279.982 0.013 29.69 0.615 0.000

38 2047 20.871 282.270 0.014 29.65 0.619 0.000

39 2048 21.024 284.521 0.014 29.61 0.623 0.001

40 2049 0.000 265.509 0.013 0.000

41 2050 0.000 246.350 0.012 0.000

42 2051 0.000 227.044 0.011 0.000

43 2052 0.000 207.589 0.010 0.000

44 2053 0.000 187.983 0.009 0.000

45 2054 0.000 168.357 0.008 0.000

46 2055 0.000 149.055 0.007 0.000

47 2056 0.000 130.402 0.006 0.000

48 2057 0.000 112.689 0.005 0.000

49 2058 0.000 96.158 0.005 0.000

50 2059 0.000 80.993 0.004 0.000

51 2060 0.000 67.318 0.003 0.000

52 2061 0.000 55.197 0.003 0.000

53 2062 0.000 44.634 0.002 0.000

54 2063 0.000 35.584 0.002 0.000

55 2064 0.000 27.960 0.001 0.000

56 2065 0.000 21.647 0.001 0.000

57 2066 0.000 16.505 0.001 0.000

58 2067 0.000 12.388 0.001 0.000

59 2068 0.000 9.147 0.000 0.000

60 2069 0.000 6.638 0.000 0.000

61 2070 0.000 4.728 0.000 0.000
62 2071 0.000 3.298 0.000 0.000

63 2072 0.000 2.245 0.000 0.000

64 2073 0.000 1.482 0.000 0.000

65 2074 0.000 0.939 0.000 0.000

66 2075 0.000 0.559 0.000 0.000

67 2076 0.000 0.297 0.000 0.000

68 2077 0.000 0.119 0.000 0.000

69 2078 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

70 2079 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

71 2080 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
TSL0 Case

Residual Lamp Energy Costs

Total Operating 

Cost

Year Shipments Affected 

Stock

Electricity 

Use

Unit 

Equipment 

Cost

billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ millions millions quads 2014$

0.000 0.190 0.190 2019 16.849 16.849 0.001 33.70

0.000 0.250 0.250 2020 17.183 34.032 0.003 33.70

0.000 0.135 0.347 2021 17.219 51.251 0.004 33.19

0.000 0.173 0.173 2022 17.319 68.570 0.004 32.85

0.000 0.211 0.211 2023 17.442 86.012 0.005 32.51

0.000 0.249 0.249 2024 17.594 103.502 0.006 32.19

0.000 0.288 0.288 2025 17.751 120.770 0.007 31.90

0.000 0.325 0.325 2026 17.872 137.517 0.008 31.64

0.000 0.360 0.360 2027 17.965 153.482 0.008 31.42

0.000 0.391 0.391 2028 18.023 168.436 0.009 31.22

0.000 0.418 0.418 2029 18.168 182.319 0.010 31.04

0.000 0.443 0.443 2030 18.349 195.065 0.010 30.89

0.000 0.466 0.466 2031 18.473 206.567 0.011 30.76

0.000 0.488 0.488 2032 18.548 216.772 0.011 30.64

0.000 0.505 0.551 2033 18.703 225.794 0.011 30.53

0.103 0.519 0.464 2034 18.871 233.719 0.012 30.44

0.055 0.535 0.479 2035 19.050 240.650 0.012 30.35

0.046 0.548 0.502 2036 19.205 246.673 0.012 30.27

0.046 0.561 0.515 2037 19.350 251.898 0.012 30.20

0.045 0.575 0.530 2038 19.489 256.436 0.012 30.13

0.044 0.588 0.544 2039 19.601 260.376 0.013 30.06

0.044 0.601 0.558 2040 19.756 263.867 0.013 30.00

0.043 0.612 0.569 2041 19.971 267.061 0.013 29.94

0.042 0.621 0.579 2042 20.121 269.974 0.013 29.88

0.042 0.631 0.589 2043 20.270 272.673 0.013 29.83

0.041 0.640 0.599 2044 20.421 275.214 0.013 29.78

0.041 0.649 0.608 2045 20.571 277.639 0.013 29.73

0.041 0.658 0.618 2046 20.720 279.982 0.013 29.69

0.041 0.668 0.627 2047 20.871 282.270 0.014 29.65

0.041 0.677 0.637 2048 21.024 284.521 0.014 29.61

0.041 0.636 0.595 2049 0.000 265.509 0.013

0.041 0.593 0.553 2050 0.000 246.350 0.012

0.041 0.550 0.510 2051 0.000 227.044 0.011

0.041 0.506 0.465 2052 0.000 207.589 0.010

0.041 0.462 0.420 2053 0.000 187.983 0.009

0.041 0.416 0.375 2054 0.000 168.357 0.008

0.042 0.371 0.329 2055 0.000 149.055 0.007

0.042 0.326 0.284 2056 0.000 130.402 0.006

0.042 0.284 0.242 2057 0.000 112.689 0.005

0.043 0.244 0.201 2058 0.000 96.158 0.005

0.043 0.207 0.164 2059 0.000 80.993 0.004

0.043 0.173 0.130 2060 0.000 67.318 0.003

0.043 0.143 0.099 2061 0.000 55.197 0.003

0.044 0.116 0.072 2062 0.000 44.634 0.002

0.044 0.093 0.049 2063 0.000 35.584 0.002

0.000 0.074 0.074 2064 0.000 27.960 0.001

0.000 0.057 0.057 2065 0.000 21.647 0.001

0.000 0.044 0.044 2066 0.000 16.505 0.001

0.000 0.033 0.033 2067 0.000 12.388 0.001

0.000 0.025 0.025 2068 0.000 9.147 0.000

0.000 0.018 0.018 2069 0.000 6.638 0.000

0.000 0.013 0.013 2070 0.000 4.728 0.000
0.000 0.009 0.009 2071 0.000 3.298 0.000

0.000 0.006 0.006 2072 0.000 2.245 0.000

0.000 0.004 0.004 2073 0.000 1.482 0.000

0.000 0.003 0.003 2074 0.000 0.939 0.000

0.000 0.002 0.002 2075 0.000 0.559 0.000

0.000 0.001 0.001 2076 0.000 0.297 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2077 0.000 0.119 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2078 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2079 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2080 0.000 0.000 0.000
TSL1 Case

Total Equipment 

Cost

Replacment 

Lamp Cost

Residual Lamp Energy Costs

Total Operating 

Cost

Year Shipments

billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ millions

0.568 0.000 0.000 0.055 0.055 2019 16.849

0.579 0.000 0.000 0.112 0.112 2020 17.183

0.571 0.000 0.000 0.151 0.151 2021 17.219

0.569 0.000 0.000 0.189 0.189 2022 17.319

0.567 0.000 0.000 0.227 0.227 2023 17.442

0.566 0.000 0.000 0.265 0.265 2024 17.594

0.566 0.000 0.000 0.304 0.304 2025 17.751

0.566 0.000 0.000 0.340 0.340 2026 17.872

0.564 0.000 0.000 0.374 0.374 2027 17.965

0.563 0.000 0.000 0.404 0.404 2028 18.023

0.564 0.000 0.000 0.430 0.430 2029 18.168

0.567 0.000 0.000 0.454 0.454 2030 18.349

0.568 0.000 0.000 0.476 0.476 2031 18.473

0.568 0.000 0.000 0.497 0.497 2032 18.548

0.571 0.052 0.000 0.511 0.563 2033 18.703

0.574 0.049 0.053 0.524 0.519 2034 18.871

0.578 0.000 0.055 0.539 0.484 2035 19.050

0.581 0.000 0.046 0.551 0.505 2036 19.205

0.584 0.000 0.046 0.563 0.518 2037 19.350

0.587 0.000 0.045 0.577 0.532 2038 19.489

0.589 0.000 0.044 0.590 0.546 2039 19.601

0.593 0.000 0.044 0.603 0.559 2040 19.756

0.598 0.000 0.043 0.613 0.570 2041 19.971

0.601 0.000 0.042 0.622 0.580 2042 20.121

0.605 0.000 0.042 0.631 0.590 2043 20.270

0.608 0.000 0.041 0.640 0.599 2044 20.421

0.612 0.000 0.041 0.649 0.608 2045 20.571

0.615 0.000 0.041 0.659 0.618 2046 20.720

0.619 0.001 0.041 0.668 0.628 2047 20.871

0.623 0.001 0.041 0.677 0.637 2048 21.024

0.000 0.041 0.636 0.595 2049 0.000

0.000 0.041 0.593 0.553 2050 0.000

0.000 0.041 0.550 0.510 2051 0.000

0.000 0.041 0.506 0.465 2052 0.000

0.000 0.041 0.462 0.420 2053 0.000

0.000 0.041 0.416 0.375 2054 0.000

0.000 0.042 0.371 0.329 2055 0.000

0.000 0.042 0.326 0.284 2056 0.000

0.000 0.042 0.284 0.242 2057 0.000

0.000 0.043 0.244 0.201 2058 0.000

0.000 0.043 0.207 0.164 2059 0.000

0.000 0.043 0.173 0.130 2060 0.000

0.000 0.043 0.143 0.099 2061 0.000

0.000 0.044 0.116 0.072 2062 0.000

0.000 0.044 0.093 0.049 2063 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.074 0.074 2064 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.057 0.057 2065 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.044 0.044 2066 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.033 0.033 2067 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.025 0.025 2068 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.018 0.018 2069 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.013 0.013 2070 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.009 0.009 2071 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.006 0.006 2072 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.004 0.004 2073 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.003 0.003 2074 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002 2075 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 2076 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2077 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2078 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2079 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2080 0.000
Affected 

Stock

Electricity 

Use

Unit 

Equipment 

Cost

Total Equipment 

Cost

Replacment 

Lamp Cost

Residual Lamp Energy Costs

Total Operating 

Cost

millions quads 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$

16.849 0.001 33.70 0.568 0.000 0.000 0.055 0.055

34.032 0.003 33.70 0.579 0.000 0.000 0.112 0.112

51.251 0.004 33.19 0.571 0.000 0.000 0.151 0.151

68.570 0.004 32.85 0.569 0.000 0.000 0.189 0.189

86.012 0.005 32.51 0.567 0.000 0.000 0.227 0.227

103.502 0.006 32.19 0.566 0.000 0.000 0.265 0.265

120.770 0.007 31.90 0.566 0.000 0.000 0.304 0.304

137.517 0.008 31.64 0.566 0.000 0.000 0.340 0.340

153.482 0.008 31.42 0.564 0.000 0.000 0.374 0.374

168.436 0.009 31.22 0.563 0.000 0.000 0.404 0.404

182.319 0.010 31.04 0.564 0.000 0.000 0.430 0.430

195.065 0.010 30.89 0.567 0.000 0.000 0.454 0.454

206.567 0.011 30.76 0.568 0.000 0.000 0.476 0.476

216.772 0.011 30.64 0.568 0.000 0.000 0.497 0.497

225.794 0.011 30.53 0.571 0.052 0.000 0.511 0.563

233.719 0.012 30.44 0.574 0.049 0.053 0.524 0.519

240.650 0.012 30.35 0.578 0.000 0.055 0.539 0.484

246.673 0.012 30.27 0.581 0.000 0.046 0.551 0.505

251.898 0.012 30.20 0.584 0.000 0.046 0.563 0.518

256.436 0.012 30.13 0.587 0.000 0.045 0.577 0.532

260.376 0.013 30.06 0.589 0.000 0.044 0.590 0.546

263.867 0.013 30.00 0.593 0.000 0.044 0.603 0.559

267.061 0.013 29.94 0.598 0.000 0.043 0.613 0.570

269.974 0.013 29.88 0.601 0.000 0.042 0.622 0.580

272.673 0.013 29.83 0.605 0.000 0.042 0.631 0.590

275.214 0.013 29.78 0.608 0.000 0.041 0.640 0.599

277.639 0.013 29.73 0.612 0.000 0.041 0.649 0.608

279.982 0.013 29.69 0.615 0.000 0.041 0.659 0.618

282.270 0.014 29.65 0.619 0.001 0.041 0.668 0.628

284.521 0.014 29.61 0.623 0.001 0.041 0.677 0.637

265.509 0.013 0.000 0.041 0.636 0.595

246.350 0.012 0.000 0.041 0.593 0.553

227.044 0.011 0.000 0.041 0.550 0.510

207.589 0.010 0.000 0.041 0.506 0.465

187.983 0.009 0.000 0.041 0.462 0.420

168.357 0.008 0.000 0.041 0.416 0.375

149.055 0.007 0.000 0.042 0.371 0.329

130.402 0.006 0.000 0.042 0.326 0.284

112.689 0.005 0.000 0.042 0.284 0.242

96.158 0.005 0.000 0.043 0.244 0.201

80.993 0.004 0.000 0.043 0.207 0.164

67.318 0.003 0.000 0.043 0.173 0.130

55.197 0.003 0.000 0.043 0.143 0.099

44.634 0.002 0.000 0.044 0.116 0.072

35.584 0.002 0.000 0.044 0.093 0.049

27.960 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.074 0.074

21.647 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.057 0.057

16.505 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.044 0.044

12.388 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.033

9.147 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.025 0.025

6.638 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.018

4.728 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.013
3.298 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.009

2.245 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.006

1.482 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.004

0.939 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.003

0.559 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002

0.297 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001

0.119 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
No Standard Case

Year Shipments Affected 

Stock

Electricity 

Use

Unit 

Equipment 

Cost

Total Equipment 

Cost

Replacment 

Lamp Cost

millions millions quads 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$

TSL 1 10 2019 0.887 0.887 0.001 30.32 0.027 0.000

Shipments Scenario 1 11 2020 0.904 1.791 0.001 33.70 0.030 0.011

12 2021 0.906 2.697 0.001 33.19 0.030 0.000

13 2022 0.912 3.609 0.001 32.85 0.030 0.005

14 2023 0.918 4.527 0.001 32.51 0.030 0.004

15 2024 0.926 5.447 0.002 32.19 0.030 0.001

16 2025 0.934 6.356 0.002 31.90 0.030 0.002

17 2026 0.941 7.238 0.002 31.64 0.030 0.012

18 2027 0.946 8.078 0.002 31.42 0.030 0.005

19 2028 0.949 8.865 0.002 31.22 0.030 0.010

20 2029 0.956 9.596 0.003 31.04 0.030 0.009

21 2030 0.966 10.267 0.003 30.89 0.030 0.007

22 2031 0.972 10.872 0.003 30.76 0.030 0.007

23 2032 0.976 11.409 0.003 30.64 0.030 0.011

24 2033 0.984 11.884 0.003 30.53 0.030 0.008

25 2034 0.993 12.301 0.003 30.44 0.030 0.010

26 2035 1.003 12.666 0.003 30.35 0.030 0.009

27 2036 1.011 12.983 0.003 30.27 0.031 0.009

28 2037 1.018 13.258 0.003 30.20 0.031 0.008

29 2038 1.026 13.497 0.004 30.13 0.031 0.009

30 2039 1.032 13.704 0.004 30.06 0.031 0.008

31 2040 1.040 13.888 0.004 30.00 0.031 0.009

32 2041 1.051 14.056 0.004 29.94 0.031 0.009

33 2042 1.059 14.209 0.004 29.88 0.032 0.008

34 2043 1.067 14.351 0.004 29.83 0.032 0.008

35 2044 1.075 14.485 0.004 29.78 0.032 0.008

36 2045 1.083 14.613 0.004 29.73 0.032 0.008

37 2046 1.091 14.736 0.004 29.69 0.032 0.008

38 2047 1.098 14.856 0.004 29.65 0.033 0.008

39 2048 1.107 14.975 0.004 29.61 0.033 0.008

40 2049 0.000 13.974 0.004 0.008

41 2050 0.000 12.966 0.003 0.008

42 2051 0.000 11.950 0.003 0.008

43 2052 0.000 10.926 0.003 0.008

44 2053 0.000 9.894 0.003 0.008

45 2054 0.000 8.861 0.002 0.008

46 2055 0.000 7.845 0.002 0.008

47 2056 0.000 6.863 0.002 0.004

48 2057 0.000 5.931 0.002 0.004

49 2058 0.000 5.061 0.001 0.004

50 2059 0.000 4.263 0.001 0.004

51 2060 0.000 3.543 0.001 0.004

52 2061 0.000 2.905 0.001 0.004

53 2062 0.000 2.349 0.001 0.001

54 2063 0.000 1.873 0.000 0.001

55 2064 0.000 1.472 0.000 0.001

56 2065 0.000 1.139 0.000 0.001

57 2066 0.000 0.869 0.000 0.001

58 2067 0.000 0.652 0.000 0.001

59 2068 0.000 0.481 0.000 0.000

60 2069 0.000 0.349 0.000 0.000

61 2070 0.000 0.249 0.000 0.000
62 2071 0.000 0.174 0.000 0.000

63 2072 0.000 0.118 0.000 0.000

64 2073 0.000 0.078 0.000 0.000

65 2074 0.000 0.049 0.000 0.000

66 2075 0.000 0.029 0.000 0.000

67 2076 0.000 0.016 0.000 0.000

68 2077 0.000 0.006 0.000 0.000

69 2078 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

70 2079 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

71 2080 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
TSL0 Case

Residual Lamp Energy Costs

Total Operating 

Cost

Year Shipments Affected 

Stock

Electricity 

Use

Unit 

Equipment 

Cost

billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ millions millions quads 2014$

0.000 0.043 0.043 2019 0.887 0.887 0.000 33.70

0.000 0.022 0.033 2020 0.904 1.791 0.001 33.70

0.000 0.031 0.031 2021 0.906 2.697 0.001 33.19

0.000 0.038 0.043 2022 0.912 3.609 0.001 32.85

0.000 0.046 0.050 2023 0.918 4.527 0.001 32.51

0.000 0.054 0.055 2024 0.926 5.447 0.002 32.19

0.000 0.063 0.065 2025 0.934 6.356 0.002 31.90

0.000 0.071 0.083 2026 0.941 7.238 0.002 31.64

0.000 0.080 0.085 2027 0.946 8.078 0.002 31.42

0.000 0.088 0.098 2028 0.949 8.865 0.002 31.22

0.000 0.094 0.103 2029 0.956 9.596 0.003 31.04

0.000 0.100 0.107 2030 0.966 10.267 0.003 30.89

0.000 0.105 0.111 2031 0.972 10.872 0.003 30.76

0.000 0.109 0.121 2032 0.976 11.409 0.003 30.64

0.000 0.114 0.122 2033 0.984 11.884 0.003 30.53

0.004 0.118 0.125 2034 0.993 12.301 0.003 30.44

0.002 0.122 0.129 2035 1.003 12.666 0.003 30.35

0.002 0.125 0.132 2036 1.011 12.983 0.003 30.27

0.002 0.127 0.134 2037 1.018 13.258 0.003 30.20

0.002 0.131 0.138 2038 1.026 13.497 0.004 30.13

0.002 0.134 0.140 2039 1.032 13.704 0.004 30.06

0.002 0.137 0.144 2040 1.040 13.888 0.004 30.00

0.002 0.139 0.146 2041 1.051 14.056 0.004 29.94

0.002 0.141 0.148 2042 1.059 14.209 0.004 29.88

0.002 0.143 0.150 2043 1.067 14.351 0.004 29.83

0.002 0.145 0.152 2044 1.075 14.485 0.004 29.78

0.002 0.147 0.154 2045 1.083 14.613 0.004 29.73

0.002 0.149 0.156 2046 1.091 14.736 0.004 29.69

0.002 0.152 0.158 2047 1.098 14.856 0.004 29.65

0.002 0.154 0.160 2048 1.107 14.975 0.004 29.61

0.002 0.144 0.151 2049 0.000 13.974 0.004

0.002 0.135 0.141 2050 0.000 12.966 0.003

0.002 0.125 0.131 2051 0.000 11.950 0.003

0.002 0.115 0.121 2052 0.000 10.926 0.003

0.002 0.105 0.111 2053 0.000 9.894 0.003

0.002 0.095 0.101 2054 0.000 8.861 0.002

0.002 0.084 0.090 2055 0.000 7.845 0.002

0.002 0.074 0.076 2056 0.000 6.863 0.002

0.002 0.064 0.066 2057 0.000 5.931 0.002

0.002 0.055 0.057 2058 0.000 5.061 0.001

0.002 0.047 0.049 2059 0.000 4.263 0.001

0.002 0.039 0.041 2060 0.000 3.543 0.001

0.002 0.032 0.034 2061 0.000 2.905 0.001

0.002 0.026 0.026 2062 0.000 2.349 0.001

0.002 0.021 0.020 2063 0.000 1.873 0.000

0.000 0.017 0.018 2064 0.000 1.472 0.000

0.000 0.013 0.014 2065 0.000 1.139 0.000

0.000 0.010 0.011 2066 0.000 0.869 0.000

0.000 0.008 0.009 2067 0.000 0.652 0.000

0.000 0.006 0.006 2068 0.000 0.481 0.000

0.000 0.004 0.004 2069 0.000 0.349 0.000

0.000 0.003 0.003 2070 0.000 0.249 0.000
0.000 0.002 0.002 2071 0.000 0.174 0.000

0.000 0.001 0.002 2072 0.000 0.118 0.000

0.000 0.001 0.001 2073 0.000 0.078 0.000

0.000 0.001 0.001 2074 0.000 0.049 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2075 0.000 0.029 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2076 0.000 0.016 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2077 0.000 0.006 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2078 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2079 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 2080 0.000 0.000 0.000
TSL1 Case

Total Equipment 

Cost

Replacment 

Lamp Cost

Residual Lamp Energy Costs

Total Operating 

Cost

Year Shipments

billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ millions

0.030 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.013 2019 0.887

0.030 0.000 0.000 0.026 0.026 2020 0.904

0.030 0.000 0.000 0.034 0.034 2021 0.906

0.030 0.005 0.000 0.041 0.046 2022 0.912

0.030 0.004 0.000 0.049 0.053 2023 0.918

0.030 0.000 0.000 0.057 0.057 2024 0.926

0.030 0.004 0.000 0.065 0.070 2025 0.934

0.030 0.004 0.000 0.073 0.078 2026 0.941

0.030 0.005 0.000 0.082 0.087 2027 0.946

0.030 0.009 0.000 0.090 0.099 2028 0.949

0.030 0.009 0.000 0.097 0.105 2029 0.956

0.030 0.006 0.000 0.102 0.108 2030 0.966

0.030 0.008 0.000 0.106 0.114 2031 0.972

0.030 0.008 0.000 0.111 0.119 2032 0.976

0.030 0.008 0.000 0.115 0.123 2033 0.984

0.030 0.009 0.002 0.119 0.127 2034 0.993

0.030 0.009 0.002 0.123 0.130 2035 1.003

0.031 0.008 0.002 0.125 0.132 2036 1.011

0.031 0.009 0.002 0.128 0.135 2037 1.018

0.031 0.009 0.002 0.131 0.138 2038 1.026

0.031 0.008 0.002 0.134 0.141 2039 1.032

0.031 0.009 0.002 0.137 0.144 2040 1.040

0.031 0.009 0.002 0.139 0.146 2041 1.051

0.032 0.008 0.002 0.141 0.148 2042 1.059

0.032 0.008 0.002 0.143 0.150 2043 1.067

0.032 0.008 0.002 0.145 0.152 2044 1.075

0.032 0.008 0.002 0.147 0.154 2045 1.083

0.032 0.008 0.002 0.149 0.156 2046 1.091

0.033 0.008 0.002 0.152 0.158 2047 1.098

0.033 0.008 0.002 0.154 0.160 2048 1.107

0.008 0.002 0.144 0.151 2049 0.000

0.008 0.002 0.135 0.141 2050 0.000

0.008 0.002 0.125 0.131 2051 0.000

0.008 0.002 0.115 0.121 2052 0.000

0.008 0.002 0.105 0.111 2053 0.000

0.008 0.002 0.095 0.101 2054 0.000

0.008 0.002 0.084 0.090 2055 0.000

0.004 0.002 0.074 0.076 2056 0.000

0.004 0.002 0.064 0.066 2057 0.000

0.004 0.002 0.055 0.057 2058 0.000

0.004 0.002 0.047 0.049 2059 0.000

0.004 0.002 0.039 0.041 2060 0.000

0.004 0.002 0.032 0.034 2061 0.000

0.001 0.002 0.026 0.026 2062 0.000

0.001 0.002 0.021 0.020 2063 0.000

0.001 0.000 0.017 0.018 2064 0.000

0.001 0.000 0.013 0.014 2065 0.000

0.001 0.000 0.010 0.011 2066 0.000

0.001 0.000 0.008 0.009 2067 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.006 0.006 2068 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.004 0.004 2069 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.003 0.003 2070 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002 2071 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 2072 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 2073 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 2074 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2075 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2076 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2077 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2078 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2079 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2080 0.000
Affected 

Stock

Electricity 

Use

Unit 

Equipment 

Cost

Total Equipment 

Cost

Replacment 

Lamp Cost

Residual Lamp Energy Costs

Total Operating 

Cost

millions quads 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$ billions 2014$

0.887 0.000 33.70 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.013

1.791 0.001 33.70 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.026 0.026

2.697 0.001 33.19 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.034 0.034

3.609 0.001 32.85 0.030 0.005 0.000 0.041 0.046

4.527 0.001 32.51 0.030 0.004 0.000 0.049 0.053

5.447 0.002 32.19 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.057 0.057

6.356 0.002 31.90 0.030 0.004 0.000 0.065 0.070

7.238 0.002 31.64 0.030 0.004 0.000 0.073 0.078

8.078 0.002 31.42 0.030 0.005 0.000 0.082 0.087

8.865 0.002 31.22 0.030 0.009 0.000 0.090 0.099

9.596 0.003 31.04 0.030 0.009 0.000 0.097 0.105

10.267 0.003 30.89 0.030 0.006 0.000 0.102 0.108

10.872 0.003 30.76 0.030 0.008 0.000 0.106 0.114

11.409 0.003 30.64 0.030 0.008 0.000 0.111 0.119

11.884 0.003 30.53 0.030 0.008 0.000 0.115 0.123

12.301 0.003 30.44 0.030 0.009 0.002 0.119 0.127

12.666 0.003 30.35 0.030 0.009 0.002 0.123 0.130

12.983 0.003 30.27 0.031 0.008 0.002 0.125 0.132

13.258 0.003 30.20 0.031 0.009 0.002 0.128 0.135

13.497 0.004 30.13 0.031 0.009 0.002 0.131 0.138

13.704 0.004 30.06 0.031 0.008 0.002 0.134 0.141

13.888 0.004 30.00 0.031 0.009 0.002 0.137 0.144

14.056 0.004 29.94 0.031 0.009 0.002 0.139 0.146

14.209 0.004 29.88 0.032 0.008 0.002 0.141 0.148

14.351 0.004 29.83 0.032 0.008 0.002 0.143 0.150

14.485 0.004 29.78 0.032 0.008 0.002 0.145 0.152

14.613 0.004 29.73 0.032 0.008 0.002 0.147 0.154

14.736 0.004 29.69 0.032 0.008 0.002 0.149 0.156

14.856 0.004 29.65 0.033 0.008 0.002 0.152 0.158

14.975 0.004 29.61 0.033 0.008 0.002 0.154 0.160

13.974 0.004 0.008 0.002 0.144 0.151

12.966 0.003 0.008 0.002 0.135 0.141

11.950 0.003 0.008 0.002 0.125 0.131

10.926 0.003 0.008 0.002 0.115 0.121

9.894 0.003 0.008 0.002 0.105 0.111

8.861 0.002 0.008 0.002 0.095 0.101

7.845 0.002 0.008 0.002 0.084 0.090

6.863 0.002 0.004 0.002 0.074 0.076

5.931 0.002 0.004 0.002 0.064 0.066

5.061 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.055 0.057

4.263 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.047 0.049

3.543 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.039 0.041

2.905 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.032 0.034

2.349 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.026 0.026

1.873 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.021 0.020

1.472 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.017 0.018

1.139 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.013 0.014

0.869 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.010 0.011

0.652 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.008 0.009

0.481 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.006

0.349 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.004

0.249 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.003
0.174 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002

0.118 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002

0.078 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001

0.049 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001

0.029 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.016 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
No-Standard Shipments

Total 

Shipments EL 0 EL 1 EL 2a EL 2b

Millions

2010 16.407 79.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0%

2011 16.042 79.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0%

2012 16.088 79.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0%

2013 15.384 72.0% 0.0% 11.5% 4.7% 0.2%

2014 15.630 64.7% 0.0% 15.2% 4.3% 0.3%

2015 16.285 63.7% 0.0% 15.0% 4.2% 1.0%

2016 16.729 62.4% 0.0% 14.7% 4.1% 1.7%

2017 17.241 60.7% 0.0% 14.3% 4.0% 2.2%

2018 17.614 58.6% 0.0% 13.8% 3.9% 2.5%

2019 17.881 55.9% 0.0% 13.1% 3.7% 2.5%

2020 18.087 0.0% 0.0% 38.7% 0.0% 2.4%

2021 18.125 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%

2022 18.231 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%

2023 18.360 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%

2024 18.520 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%

2025 18.686 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%

2026 18.813 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

2027 18.910 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

2028 18.972 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%

2029 19.125 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%

2030 19.315 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%

2031 19.445 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

2032 19.524 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

2033 19.687 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2034 19.864 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2035 20.052 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2036 20.216 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2037 20.369 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2038 20.515 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2039 20.632 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2040 20.796 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2041 21.022 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2042 21.180 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2043 21.337 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2044 21.496 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2045 21.653 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2046 21.811 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2047 21.970 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2048 22.131 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2049 22.293 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

TSL0 Shipments

Total 

Shipments EL 0 EL 1 EL 2a EL 2b

Millions

2010 16.407 79.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0%

2011 16.042 79.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0%

2012 16.088 79.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0%

2013 15.384 72.0% 0.0% 11.5% 4.7% 0.2%

Lamp Replacment Scenario

Sub-Baseline

Sub-Baseline

Lamp Replacment Scenario
2014 15.630 64.7% 0.0% 15.2% 4.3% 0.3%

2015 16.285 63.7% 0.0% 15.0% 4.2% 1.0%

2016 16.729 62.4% 0.0% 14.7% 4.1% 1.7%

2017 17.241 60.7% 0.0% 14.3% 4.0% 2.2%

2018 17.614 58.6% 0.0% 13.8% 3.9% 2.5%

2019 17.736 0.0% 0.0% 41.1% 3.7% 2.5%

2020 18.087 0.0% 0.0% 38.7% 0.0% 2.4%

2021 18.125 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%

2022 18.231 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%

2023 18.360 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%

2024 18.520 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%

2025 18.686 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%

2026 18.813 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

2027 18.910 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

2028 18.972 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%

2029 19.125 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%

2030 19.315 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%

2031 19.445 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

2032 19.524 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

2033 19.687 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2034 19.864 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2035 20.052 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2036 20.216 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2037 20.369 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2038 20.515 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2039 20.632 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2040 20.796 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2041 21.022 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2042 21.180 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2043 21.337 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2044 21.496 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2045 21.653 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2046 21.811 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2047 21.970 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2048 22.131 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2049 22.293 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

TSL1 Shipments

Total 

Shipments EL 0 EL 1 EL 2a EL 2b

Millions

2010 16.407 79.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0%

2011 16.042 79.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0%

2012 16.088 79.4% 0.0% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0%

2013 15.384 72.0% 0.0% 11.5% 4.7% 0.2%

2014 15.630 64.7% 0.0% 15.2% 4.3% 0.3%

2015 16.285 63.7% 0.0% 15.0% 4.2% 1.0%

2016 16.729 62.4% 0.0% 14.7% 4.1% 1.7%

2017 17.241 60.7% 0.0% 14.3% 4.0% 2.2%

2018 17.614 58.6% 0.0% 13.8% 3.9% 2.5%

2019 17.736 0.0% 0.0% 41.1% 3.7% 2.5%

2020 18.087 0.0% 0.0% 38.7% 0.0% 2.4%

2021 18.125 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%

2022 18.231 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%

2023 18.360 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%

2024 18.520 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%

Sub-Baseline

Lamp Replacment Scenario
2025 18.686 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%

2026 18.813 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

2027 18.910 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

2028 18.972 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%

2029 19.125 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%

2030 19.315 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%

2031 19.445 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

2032 19.524 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

2033 19.687 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2034 19.864 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2035 20.052 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2036 20.216 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

2037 20.369 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2038 20.515 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2039 20.632 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2040 20.796 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2041 21.022 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2042 21.180 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2043 21.337 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2044 21.496 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2045 21.653 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2046 21.811 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2047 21.970 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2048 22.131 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2049 22.293 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EL 3 EL 4 EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%

0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 14.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0%

0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 14.3% 2.8% 0.4% 0.2%

1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 13.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.6%

2.0% 2.5% 0.0% 13.1% 4.0% 1.5% 1.6%

2.5% 6.3% 0.0% 38.7% 4.2% 2.1% 5.0%

2.8% 44.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2.7% 43.2%

3.0% 45.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% 43.1%

2.9% 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 3.2% 43.4%

2.7% 46.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.2% 43.8%

2.4% 46.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.0% 44.5%

2.1% 47.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2.7% 45.2%

1.7% 47.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 2.4% 45.9%

1.4% 48.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 2.0% 46.6%

1.2% 48.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.7% 47.2%

0.9% 48.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4% 47.8%

0.7% 49.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 48.2%

0.6% 49.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 48.6%

0.5% 49.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 48.9%

0.4% 49.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 49.1%

0.3% 49.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 49.3%

0.2% 49.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 49.4%

0.2% 49.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 49.5%

0.1% 49.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 49.6%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 49.7%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 49.8%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 49.8%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 49.8%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0%

EL 3 EL 4 EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Efficiency Distribution

CFLK Replacement Scenario

Efficiency Distribution

CFLK Replacement Scenario
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%

0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 14.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0%

0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 14.3% 2.8% 0.4% 0.2%

1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 13.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.6%

2.0% 2.5% 0.0% 41.1% 4.0% 1.5% 1.6%

2.5% 6.3% 0.0% 38.7% 4.2% 2.1% 5.0%

2.8% 44.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2.7% 43.2%

3.0% 45.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% 43.1%

2.9% 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 3.2% 43.4%

2.7% 46.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.2% 43.8%

2.4% 46.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.0% 44.5%

2.1% 47.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2.7% 45.2%

1.7% 47.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 2.4% 45.9%

1.4% 48.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 2.0% 46.6%

1.2% 48.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.7% 47.2%

0.9% 48.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4% 47.8%

0.7% 49.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 48.2%

0.6% 49.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 48.6%

0.5% 49.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 48.9%

0.4% 49.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 49.1%

0.3% 49.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 49.3%

0.2% 49.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 49.4%

0.2% 49.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 49.5%

0.1% 49.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 49.6%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 49.7%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 49.8%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 49.8%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 49.8%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0%

EL 3 EL 4 EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%

0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 14.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0%

0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 14.3% 2.8% 0.4% 0.2%

1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 13.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.6%

2.0% 2.5% 0.0% 41.1% 4.0% 1.5% 1.6%

2.5% 6.3% 0.0% 38.7% 4.2% 2.1% 5.0%

2.8% 44.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2.7% 43.2%

3.0% 45.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% 43.1%

2.9% 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 3.2% 43.4%

2.7% 46.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.2% 43.8%

CFLK Replacement Scenario

Efficiency Distribution
2.4% 46.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.0% 44.5%

2.1% 47.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2.7% 45.2%

1.7% 47.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 2.4% 45.9%

1.4% 48.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 2.0% 46.6%

1.2% 48.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.7% 47.2%

0.9% 48.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4% 47.8%

0.7% 49.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 48.2%

0.6% 49.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 48.6%

0.5% 49.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 48.9%

0.4% 49.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 49.1%

0.3% 49.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 49.3%

0.2% 49.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 49.4%

0.2% 49.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 49.5%

0.1% 49.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 49.6%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 49.7%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 49.8%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 49.8%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 49.8%

0.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9%

0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0%

Prices including Tax (2014$)

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2a EL 2b EL 3

2010 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $59.87 $38.74

2011 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $59.87 $38.74

2012 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $59.87 $38.74

2013 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $59.87 $38.74

2014 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $59.87 $38.74

2015 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $53.61 $36.23

2016 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $50.07 $34.81

2017 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $47.65 $33.83

2018 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $45.91 $33.13

2019 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $44.50 $32.57

2020 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $43.34 $32.10

2021 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $41.68 $31.44

2022 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $41.15 $31.22

2023 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $40.66 $31.03

2024 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $40.22 $30.85

2025 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $39.82 $30.69

2026 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $39.47 $30.55

2027 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $39.16 $30.43

2028 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $38.88 $30.31

2029 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $38.62 $30.21

2030 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $38.39 $30.12

2031 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $38.18 $30.03

2032 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $37.98 $29.95

2033 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $37.79 $29.88

2034 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $37.62 $29.81

2035 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $37.46 $29.74

2036 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $37.30 $29.68

2037 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $37.16 $29.62

2038 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $37.01 $29.56

2039 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $36.88 $29.51

2040 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $36.75 $29.46

2041 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $36.63 $29.41

2042 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $36.51 $29.36

2043 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $36.40 $29.32

2044 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $36.30 $29.28

2045 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $36.20 $29.24

2046 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $36.11 $29.20

2047 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $36.02 $29.17

2048 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $35.94 $29.13

2049 $26.49 $29.21 $30.06 $30.66 $35.86 $29.10

Sub-Baseline

Lamp Replacment Scenario
EL 4 EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4

$35.74 $29.21 $35.03 $75.98 $46.15 $45.59

$35.74 $29.21 $35.03 $75.98 $46.15 $45.59

$35.74 $29.21 $35.03 $75.98 $46.15 $45.59

$35.74 $29.21 $35.03 $75.98 $46.15 $45.59

$35.74 $29.21 $35.03 $75.98 $46.15 $45.59

$33.76 $29.21 $35.03 $66.94 $42.25 $41.79

$32.64 $29.21 $35.03 $61.83 $40.04 $39.64

$31.87 $29.21 $35.03 $58.33 $38.54 $38.17

$31.32 $29.21 $35.03 $55.81 $37.45 $37.11

$30.87 $29.21 $35.03 $53.77 $36.57 $36.25

$30.51 $29.21 $35.03 $52.11 $35.85 $35.55

$29.98 $29.21 $35.03 $49.70 $34.81 $34.54

$29.81 $29.21 $35.03 $48.94 $34.48 $34.22

$29.66 $29.21 $35.03 $48.23 $34.17 $33.92

$29.52 $29.21 $35.03 $47.59 $33.90 $33.65

$29.39 $29.21 $35.03 $47.02 $33.65 $33.41

$29.28 $29.21 $35.03 $46.52 $33.44 $33.20

$29.18 $29.21 $35.03 $46.07 $33.24 $33.01

$29.10 $29.21 $35.03 $45.66 $33.07 $32.84

$29.01 $29.21 $35.03 $45.29 $32.91 $32.68

$28.94 $29.21 $35.03 $44.95 $32.76 $32.54

$28.87 $29.21 $35.03 $44.64 $32.63 $32.41

$28.81 $29.21 $35.03 $44.36 $32.50 $32.29

$28.75 $29.21 $35.03 $44.09 $32.39 $32.18

$28.70 $29.21 $35.03 $43.84 $32.28 $32.07

$28.65 $29.21 $35.03 $43.61 $32.18 $31.98

$28.60 $29.21 $35.03 $43.38 $32.08 $31.88

$28.55 $29.21 $35.03 $43.17 $31.99 $31.79

$28.51 $29.21 $35.03 $42.97 $31.90 $31.71

$28.46 $29.21 $35.03 $42.77 $31.82 $31.62

$28.42 $29.21 $35.03 $42.59 $31.74 $31.55

$28.38 $29.21 $35.03 $42.41 $31.66 $31.47

$28.35 $29.21 $35.03 $42.24 $31.59 $31.40

$28.31 $29.21 $35.03 $42.08 $31.52 $31.33

$28.28 $29.21 $35.03 $41.93 $31.46 $31.27

$28.25 $29.21 $35.03 $41.79 $31.40 $31.21

$28.22 $29.21 $35.03 $41.66 $31.34 $31.16

$28.19 $29.21 $35.03 $41.54 $31.29 $31.10

$28.17 $29.21 $35.03 $41.42 $31.23 $31.05

$28.14 $29.21 $35.03 $41.30 $31.19 $31.01

CFLK Replacement Scenario
Shipments Model Parameters and Assumptions

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2a EL 2b

Remaining CFLK Cost $22.15 $22.15 $22.15 $22.15 $22.15

Individual Socket Cost $0.31 $0.31 $0.31 $0.31 $0.31

Light Kit Cost $23.08 $22.94 $22.94 $22.94 $22.94

Lamp Cost (2014) $0.55 $1.70 $2.01 $2.23 $12.93

N_lamps (scaled) 3.00 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55

N_lamps Eng. 3 2 2 2 2

Lamp Lumens 440 800 800 730 800

Market Share (2014) 0.651 0 0.153 0.043 0

Wattage 60 14 13 11 12

Efficacy 7.3 57.1 61.5 66.4 66.7

Lamp Lifetime (hrs) 1500 10000 10000 10000 25000

CFLK Lumen Output 1320 2039 2039 1861 2039

Technology Inc CFL CFL CFL LED

Residential UEC (kWh) 127.4 26.1 24.3 20.5 21.7

Commercial UEC (kWh) 675.9 138.7 128.8 109.0 114.9

Sub-Baseline

Lamp Replacment Scenario
EL 3 EL 4 EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4

$22.15 $22.15 $22.15 $22.15 $22.15 $22.15 $22.15

$0.31 $0.31 $0.31 $0.31 $0.31 $0.31 $0.31

$22.94 $22.94 $22.94 $23.34 $23.34 $22.55 $22.55

$5.19 $4.09 $1.70 $2.45 $12.45 $16.12 $15.71

2.55 2.55 2.55 3.82 3.82 1.27 1.27

2 2 2 3 3 1 1

800 820 800 520 500 1600 1600

0 0 0 0.153 0 0 0

8.5 8 14 9 8 16 15

94.1 102.5 57.1 57.8 62.5 100 106.7

25000 25000 10000 10000 25000 25000 25000

2039 2090 2039 1988 1912 2039 2039

LED LED CFL CFL LED LED LED

15.3 14.4 26.1 25.2 21.7 14.4 13.5

81.4 76.6 138.7 133.8 114.9 76.6 71.8

CFLK Replacement Scenario
Survival Probability Survival Function 0 1.000 30 0.004 1 1.000 29 0.006 2 1.000 28 0.009 3 1.000 27 0.013 theta = 4.14 4 1.000 26 0.018 alpha = 10.93 5 0.994 25 0.026 beta = 2 6 0.971 24 0.037 7 0.934 23 0.051 8 0.883 22 0.069 9 0.821 21 0.093

10 0.750 20 0.122

11 0.674 19 0.157

12 0.596 18 0.200

13 0.518 17 0.250

14 0.443 16 0.308

15 0.372 15 0.372

16 0.308 14 0.443

17 0.250 13 0.518

18 0.200 12 0.596

19 0.157 11 0.674

20 0.122 10 0.750

21 0.0939 0.821

22 0.0698 0.883

23 0.0517 0.934

24 0.0376 0.971

25 0.0265 0.994

26 0.0184 1.000

27 0.0133 1.000

28 0.0092 1.000

29 0.0061 1.000

30 0.0040 1.000

S(t) = e^-(((t-theta)/(alpha))^beta) 

S(t) = 1

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

012345
t > theta

t <= theta

heta)/(alpha))^beta) 

6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

Survival Probability
Residential (2014$/MMBtu) Commerical (2014$/MMBtu)

Ref High Low Ref

2010 38.779 38.779 38.779 2010 32.742

2011 38.779 38.779 38.779 2011 32.742

2012 38.779 38.779 38.779 2012 32.742

2013 39.088 39.088 39.088 2013 32.361

2014 38.416 38.434 38.416 2014 32.633

2015 39.011 38.929 38.956 2015 32.365

2016 40.230 40.141 40.224 2016 33.052

2017 40.636 40.384 40.540 2017 33.258

2018 40.470 40.368 40.249 2018 33.055

2019 40.802 40.840 40.286 2019 33.378

2020 41.674 41.863 40.871 2020 34.014

2021 42.413 42.628 41.296 2021 34.643

2022 42.775 43.015 41.585 2022 34.909

2023 43.169 43.571 41.975 2023 35.221

2024 43.282 44.028 42.279 2024 35.236

2025 43.773 44.244 42.489 2025 35.635

2026 43.995 44.381 42.758 2026 35.745

2027 44.210 44.497 42.831 2027 35.909

2028 44.322 44.483 42.876 2028 36.041

2029 44.236 44.443 42.657 2029 35.888

2030 44.300 44.563 42.809 2030 35.874

2031 44.420 44.877 42.653 2031 35.875

2032 44.671 45.193 43.054 2032 36.044

2033 44.944 45.526 43.056 2033 36.250

2034 45.169 45.840 43.322 2034 36.406

2035 45.382 46.208 43.554 2035 36.568

2036 45.534 46.582 43.702 2036 36.673

2037 45.798 47.003 44.105 2037 36.906

2038 46.240 47.452 44.550 2038 37.310

2039 46.722 48.138 45.131 2039 37.753

2040 47.259 48.805 45.726 2040 38.215

2041 47.566 49.251 46.028 2041 38.458

2042 47.874 49.701 46.333 2042 38.702

2043 48.185 50.155 46.639 2043 38.947

2044 48.498 50.613 46.947 2044 39.194

2045 48.812 51.076 47.258 2045 39.443

2046 49.129 51.542 47.570 2046 39.693

2047 49.448 52.013 47.885 2047 39.945

2048 49.768 52.488 48.202 2048 40.198

2049 50.091 52.968 48.521 2049 40.453

2050 50.416 53.451 48.841 2050 40.709

2051 50.743 53.940 49.164 2051 40.968

2052 51.072 54.433 49.490 2052 41.227

2053 51.404 54.930 49.817 2053 41.489

2054 51.737 55.432 50.146 2054 41.752

2055 52.073 55.938 50.478 2055 42.017

2056 52.411 56.449 50.812 2056 42.283

2057 52.751 56.965 51.148 2057 42.552

2058 53.093 57.485 51.486 2058 42.821

2059 53.437 58.010 51.827 2059 43.093

2060 53.784 58.540 52.169 2060 43.366

2061 54.133 59.075 52.514 2061 43.641

2062 54.484 59.614 52.862 2062 43.918

2063 54.837 60.159 53.211 2063 44.197

2064 55.193 60.709 53.563 2064 44.477
2065 55.551 61.263 53.917 2065 44.759

2066 55.911 61.823 54.274 2066 45.043

2067 56.274 62.387 54.633 2067 45.329

2068 56.639 62.957 54.994 2068 45.616

2069 57.007 63.532 55.358 2069 45.906

2070 57.376 64.113 55.724 2070 46.197

2071 57.749 64.699 56.093 2071 46.490

2072 58.123 65.290 56.464 2072 46.785

2073 58.500 65.886 56.837 2073 47.081

2074 58.880 66.488 57.213 2074 47.380

2075 59.262 67.095 57.591 2075 47.680

2076 59.646 67.708 57.972 2076 47.983

2077 60.033 68.327 58.356 2077 48.287

2078 60.423 68.951 58.742 2078 48.593

2079 60.814 69.581 59.130 2079 48.902

2080 61.209 70.216 59.521 2080 49.212
2014$/MMBtu)

High Low

32.742 32.742

32.742 32.742

32.742 32.742

32.361 32.361

32.658 32.634

32.312 32.287

33.103 32.946

33.158 32.893

33.213 32.623

33.694 32.649

34.517 32.961

35.152 33.215

35.451 33.430

35.906 33.795

36.279 34.069

36.414 34.218

36.465 34.445

36.568 34.489

36.507 34.484

36.403 34.251

36.444 34.359

36.648 34.051

36.913 34.416

37.198 34.305

37.451 34.504

37.791 34.700

38.138 34.798

38.546 35.101

38.949 35.493

39.576 36.058

40.183 36.571

40.578 36.800

40.976 37.031

41.378 37.262

41.784 37.496

42.194 37.730

42.608 37.966

43.026 38.204

43.449 38.443

43.875 38.684

44.306 38.926

44.740 39.170

45.179 39.415

45.623 39.661

46.071 39.910

46.523 40.159

46.979 40.411

47.440 40.664

47.906 40.918

48.376 41.174

48.851 41.432

49.330 41.691

49.814 41.952

50.303 42.215

50.797 42.479
51.296 42.745

51.799 43.012

52.307 43.282

52.821 43.552

53.339 43.825

53.862 44.099

54.391 44.375

54.925 44.653

55.464 44.933

56.008 45.214

56.558 45.497

57.113 45.782

57.673 46.068

58.239 46.356

58.811 46.647

59.388 46.938
res com

Power Plant Upstream Power Plant Upstream

Btu/kWh quad/quad Btu/kWh quad/quad

2019 10763.137 1.043 2019 10667.599 1.043

2020 10518.489 1.044 2020 10427.361 1.044

2021 10416.439 1.044 2021 10331.689 1.044

2022 10210.165 1.044 2022 10127.587 1.044

2023 9913.957 1.044 2023 9825.168 1.044

2024 9746.640 1.044 2024 9649.669 1.044

2025 9745.171 1.045 2025 9650.731 1.045

2026 9572.520 1.045 2026 9477.492 1.045

2027 9364.026 1.045 2027 9265.647 1.045

2028 9234.871 1.045 2028 9137.630 1.045

2029 9182.623 1.045 2029 9083.634 1.045

2030 9107.032 1.046 2030 9006.909 1.046

2031 9059.147 1.046 2031 8957.084 1.046

2032 8917.066 1.046 2032 8814.119 1.046

2033 8847.802 1.046 2033 8748.407 1.046

2034 8824.076 1.046 2034 8726.104 1.046

2035 8794.763 1.047 2035 8697.593 1.047

2036 8802.377 1.047 2036 8702.851 1.047

2037 8817.752 1.047 2037 8716.989 1.047

2038 8841.602 1.047 2038 8739.583 1.047

2039 8857.927 1.047 2039 8755.074 1.047

2040 8890.574 1.047 2040 8785.507 1.047

2041 8890.574 1.047 2041 8785.507 1.047

2042 8890.574 1.047 2042 8785.507 1.047

2043 8890.574 1.047 2043 8785.507 1.047

2044 8890.574 1.047 2044 8785.507 1.047

2045 8890.574 1.047 2045 8785.507 1.047

2046 8890.574 1.047 2046 8785.507 1.047

2047 8890.574 1.047 2047 8785.507 1.047

2048 8890.574 1.047 2048 8785.507 1.047

2049 8890.574 1.047 2049 8785.507 1.047

2050 8890.574 1.047 2050 8785.507 1.047

2051 8890.574 1.047 2051 8785.507 1.047

2052 8890.574 1.047 2052 8785.507 1.047

2053 8890.574 1.047 2053 8785.507 1.047

2054 8890.574 1.047 2054 8785.507 1.047

2055 8890.574 1.047 2055 8785.507 1.047

2056 8890.574 1.047 2056 8785.507 1.047

2057 8890.574 1.047 2057 8785.507 1.047

2058 8890.574 1.047 2058 8785.507 1.047

2059 8890.574 1.047 2059 8785.507 1.047

2060 8890.574 1.047 2060 8785.507 1.047

2061 8890.574 1.047 2061 8785.507 1.047

2062 8890.574 1.047 2062 8785.507 1.047

2063 8890.574 1.047 2063 8785.507 1.047

2064 8890.574 1.047 2064 8785.507 1.047

2065 8890.574 1.047 2065 8785.507 1.047

2066 8890.574 1.047 2066 8785.507 1.047

2067 8890.574 1.047 2067 8785.507 1.047

2068 8890.574 1.047 2068 8785.507 1.047

2069 8890.574 1.047 2069 8785.507 1.047

2070 8890.574 1.047 2070 8785.507 1.047

2071 8890.574 1.047 2071 8785.507 1.047

2072 8890.574 1.047 2072 8785.507 1.047

2073 8890.574 1.047 2073 8785.507 1.047

2074 8890.574 1.047 2074 8785.507 1.047
2075 8890.574 1.047 2075 8785.507 1.047

2076 8890.574 1.047 2076 8785.507 1.047

2077 8890.574 1.047 2077 8785.507 1.047

2078 0.000 0.000 2078 0.000 0.000

2079 0.000 0.000 2079 0.000 0.000

2080 0.000 0.000 2080 0.000 0.000


Historical Shipments (millions) Notes

Year Total CF CFLK Total

1991 14.000 12.320

1992 13.750 12.100

1993 13.890 12.223

1994 14.800 13.024

1995 14.340 12.619

1996 14.520 12.778

1997 14.870 13.086

1998 14.866 13.082

1999 15.050 13.244

2000 15.235 13.407

2001 15.419 13.569

2002 15.604 13.731

2003 16.664 14.664

2004 16.038 14.113

2005 16.959 14.924

2006 19.417 17.087

2007 21.021 18.498

2008 20.641 18.164

2009 20.273 17.841

2010 18.654 16.416

2011 18.163 15.984

Total historical shipments of ceiling fan estimates use data from Applicance 

Magainze (1991-2006), Energy Star Annual Reports (2003-2011) and NPD 

Research Group (2007-2011). Estimates for CFLK shipments are assumed to be 

88% of CF shipments. 

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003

Shipments [millions]

Historical CFLK Shipments
Applicance 

003-2011) and NPD 

ments are assumed to be 

200320042005200620072008200920102011

K Shipments
AEO New Start Projections (millions) Projected Demolitions (millions)

Year High Low Reference Year High Low Reference

2010 0.587 0.587 0.587 2010 0.230 0.230 0.230

2011 0.664 0.664 0.664 2011 4.505 4.505 4.505

2012 0.839 0.839 0.839 2012 0.601 0.601 0.601

2013 0.990 0.990 0.990 2013 0.597 0.597 0.597

2014 1.062 1.062 1.062 2014 0.594 0.594 0.594

2015 1.734 1.180 1.299 2015 0.591 0.591 0.591

2016 2.070 1.126 1.410 2016 0.595 0.589 0.589

2017 2.097 1.191 1.551 2017 0.601 0.586 0.588

2018 2.187 1.184 1.629 2018 0.606 0.583 0.588

2019 2.217 1.190 1.668 2019 0.612 0.582 0.589

2020 2.281 1.206 1.693 2020 0.618 0.580 0.591

2021 2.319 1.165 1.644 2021 0.625 0.579 0.593

2022 2.341 1.146 1.638 2022 0.633 0.579 0.595

2023 2.365 1.145 1.647 2023 0.641 0.578 0.598

2024 2.392 1.160 1.672 2024 0.649 0.578 0.600

2025 2.424 1.168 1.697 2025 0.658 0.578 0.603

2026 2.464 1.161 1.699 2026 0.666 0.579 0.606

2027 2.485 1.138 1.682 2027 0.674 0.579 0.609

2028 2.453 1.085 1.642 2028 0.683 0.579 0.611

2029 2.442 1.059 1.644 2029 0.691 0.579 0.614

2030 2.443 1.046 1.661 2030 0.699 0.578 0.617

2031 2.427 1.028 1.646 2031 0.707 0.578 0.619

2032 2.397 1.007 1.602 2032 0.715 0.578 0.622

2033 2.379 1.002 1.601 2033 0.722 0.577 0.624

2034 2.383 0.978 1.608 2034 0.730 0.577 0.627

2035 2.431 0.974 1.621 2035 0.737 0.577 0.630

2036 2.469 0.971 1.624 2036 0.745 0.576 0.632

2037 2.514 0.973 1.625 2037 0.753 0.576 0.635

2038 2.534 0.973 1.625 2038 0.761 0.576 0.638

2039 2.536 0.961 1.612 2039 0.769 0.576 0.641

2040 2.554 0.962 1.622 2040 0.778 0.576 0.644

2041 2.566 0.954 1.618 2041 0.734 0.541 0.591

2042 2.577 0.946 1.615 2042 0.724 0.531 0.580

2043 2.589 0.938 1.611 2043 0.714 0.522 0.568

2044 2.600 0.931 1.607 2044 0.704 0.513 0.557

2045 2.612 0.923 1.603 2045 0.694 0.504 0.545

2046 2.623 0.915 1.599 2046 0.683 0.495 0.534

2047 2.635 0.908 1.595 2047 0.672 0.486 0.522

2048 2.647 0.900 1.592 2048 0.661 0.477 0.511
Notes

Source: AEO 2015

After 2040, the value for new starts is extrapolated using the trend 

derived from 2030-2040.