**GAO-07-1261R**                      Published: Sep 28, 2007. Publicly Released: Sep 28, 2007.                  

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## Highlights

Since 1992, GAO has published long-term fiscal simulations of what might happen to federal deficits and debt levels under varying policy assumptions. GAO developed its long-term model in response to a bipartisan request from Members of Congress who were concerned about the longterm effects of fiscal policy. GAO's simulations were updated with the CBO's August budget projections and economic assumptions and continue to indicate that the long-term federal fiscal outlook remains unsustainable. This update combined with our analysis of the fiscal outlook of state and local governments demonstrates that the fiscal challenges facing all levels of government are linked and should be considered in a strategic and integrated manner. GAO updates its simulations three times a year as new estimates become available from: CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook (January), Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports (spring), and CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (late summer). This product responds to congressional interest in receiving updated simulation results.

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## Topics

Budget and Spending

Balanced budgetsBudget cutsBudget deficitDeficit reductionEconometric modelingEconomic analysisEconomic growthFederal social security programsFiscal policiesGross national productMedicaidMedicareFiscal imbalance