At the dawn of the new millennium,

global population continues to

increase rapidly ...

... even though both the global rate

of growth and net additions each

year are decreasing,

... even though AIDS is devastating

the populations of a number of

African countries,

...even though 88 countries now

have fertility levels lower than those

required for replacement of their

populations in the long run.

This brief highlights several of the most

important global population trends in 2002

and describes the continuation and impacts

of these trends through 2050. The material

discussed here, as well as demographic statistics for every country of the world, come

from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Global

Population Profile: 2002. 

Global Population Growth

According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, world population hit the 6-billion

mark in June 1999. This figure is over

3.5 times the size of the earth’s population at the beginning of the 20th century

and roughly double its size in 1960. The

time required for global population to

grow from 5 to 6 billion — 12 years —

was shorter than the interval between

any of the previous billions.

U S C E N S U S B U R E A U

Helping You Make Informed Decisions

U.S.Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Issued March 2004

WP/02-1

Global Population at a Glance:

2002 and Beyond 

Demographic Programs

International

Population

Reports

International Brief 

Figure 1.

Annual Additions and the Annual Growth Rate of Global Population

The growth of global population has peaked. 

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision; U.S. Census Bureau, 

International Programs Center, International Data Base and unpublished tables.

Population in billions Total world population

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

1804

1922

1959

1974

1999

1987

2013

2028

2048

20

years

15

years

14 

years

12 

years

13

years

15

years

37 years

118 years
In 2002, global population stood at

6.2 billion and was growing at 

1.2 percent per annum. This is

equivalent to a net addition of

about 200,000 people per day,

about 74 million people per year,

and about 371 million people over

a 5-year period (or nearly the size

of all of Western Europe in 2002). 

However, as Figure 1 indicates, the

pace of global population increase

actually peaked some years ago.

The 74 million people added in

2002 is a substantially lower increment than the high of 87 million

people added in 1989-90, and the

growth rate was well below the high

of 2.2 percent in 1963-64. Census

Bureau projections show this slowdown in population growth continuing into the foreseeable future.

The slowdown in the growth of the

world’s population can be traced

primarily to declines in fertility. In

1990, the world’s women, on average, were giving birth to 3.3 children over their lifetimes. By 2002,

the average was 2.6 — less than

one-half of a child more than the

level needed to assure the replacement of the population. Although

fertility rates in some parts of the

world are expected to remain above

replacement level for quite some

time (e.g., in Sub-Saharan Africa),

Census Bureau projections suggest

that the level of fertility for the

world as a whole will drop below

replacement level before 2050.

Population momentum

accounts for much of the

continued growth of global

population in 2002 

and beyond.

National, regional, and global

declines in fertility are not projected

to translate directly into equivalent

declines in the growth of population.

The lack of correspondence in fertility and population declines is due to

the fact that numbers of women in

their child-bearing years are

2 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 2.

The Components of Yearly 

World Population Growth: 2002-2050 

Fertility's contribution to global growth 

will cease by 2050. 

 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data 

Base and unpublished tables. 

Annual average percent growth — 

total and contribution of components

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fertility effect

Mortality effect

Population momentum effect

0.42

1.19

1.06

0.88

0.69

0.55

Figure 3.

Age-Sex Structure of World Population: 2002 and 2050 

Global population will change markedly 

over the next 50 years.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data Base. 

400 300 200 100 0

 0- 4

 5- 9

 10-14

 15-19

 20-24

 25-29

 30-34

 35-39

 40-44

 45-49

 50-54

 55-59

 60-64

 65-69

 70-74

 75-79

 80+

0 100 200 300 400

Male Female Age

Millions

2050

2002
increasing both in absolute terms

and relative to the rest of the population (as a result of past, higher fertility), an effect that demographers

refer to as “population momentum.”

The increase in the ratio of women

of reproductive age to total population was responsible for about threefourths of global population growth

in 2002. Census Bureau projections

suggest that by 2050, virtually all of

the growth of the globe’s population

will be due to this age-sex composition effect (Figure 2).

GLOBAL POPULATION

COMPOSITION

The transition to lower fertility

and mortality accounts for the

aging of global population now

and during the coming 50 years.

Largely as a result of past, higher

fertility, children (ages 0-14)

outnumbered all other age groups

in 2002, with each successively

higher age group being slightly

smaller (Figure 3). Children made

up just under 30 percent of the

world’s population. 

Over the next five decades, the

absolute number of children is

expected to remain relatively stable, but their number relative to

total global population is expected

to decline to 20 percent. The number of women in their childbearing

years is expected to increase by

more than 25 percent between

2002 and 2050; however, their

proportion of total population

slowly decreases (from 26 percent

to 23 percent). The population of

labor force age is expected to

grow steadily while its proportion

of the total stays approximately

the same. The world’s elderly

population, on the other hand, is

projected to grow considerably in

both absolute and relative terms

(Figure 4). The elderly are projected to be more than three times as

many in 2050 as today, and to

comprise nearly 17 percent of

global population, compared with

7 percent in 2002.

How fast global population

grows over the next five

decades will be determined in

part by two factors that are

relatively difficult to forecast.

These are the pace of fertility

decline in parts of the

developing world and the

future course taken by the

AIDS pandemic.

CONTRACEPTIVE

PREVALENCE IN THE

DEVELOPING WORLD

High fertility remains the dominant

factor dictating the future size,

growth, and composition of the

populations of many developing

nations. Contraceptive use, in

turn, is one of the primary determinants of the level of fertility in a

population and of differences in

fertility between populations.

Contraceptive use is also important

as an indicator of the extent to

which couples have access to

reproductive health services. 

Though contraceptive prevalence

has risen dramatically since the

1960s, there are at least 100 million women in the world’s

developing countries today who

would like to space or limit their

pregnancies but are not using

contraception. These women, considered to have “unmet need for

family planning,” are found in

greater numbers in Asia than in

other world regions but make up

higher proportions of the populations of Sub-Saharan African countries than of countries in other

parts of the world.

U.S. Census Bureau 3

Figure 4.

Population Growth of Specific Age Groups: 

2002 to 2050 

The elderly population is projected 

to grow most rapidly. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data Base. 

Population in billions

65 years of 

age and older

0-14 

years of age

15-29 

years of age

30-64 

years of age

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
THE AIDS PANDEMIC IN

THE 21ST CENTURY

Since the beginning of the AIDS

pandemic two decades ago, more

than 20 million people have died

of AIDS. Twice that many — 40

million — are now living with HIV,

the virus that causes AIDS. Barring

some major breakthrough, most of

these people are expected to die

during the next 10 years or so.

The pandemic continues to have its

greatest impact in the developing

countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin

America, with Sub-Saharan Africa at

its epicenter. The latest estimates

released by UNAIDS and the World

Health Organization show infection

rates among the adult population

exceed 35 percent in Botswana and

10 percent in eleven other countries

in Sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 5). As

a result of AIDS mortality, Census

Bureau projections indicate that a

number of African countries will

experience levels of mortality

during this decade that will bring

the average life expectancy at birth

down to around 30 years by 2010,

levels not seen since the beginning

of the 20th century. 

Consequently, some of these countries are expected to begin to experience population decline before 2010.

Moreover, AIDS mortality is likely to

produce age-sex distributions that

have never been seen before. 

The news is not all bad,

however. 

While child mortality rates in 2010

are expected to be much higher

with AIDS than they would have

been without AIDS, if prevention of

mother-to-child transmission programs are dramatically scaled up,

then the course of future child

mortality rates can be changed.

Moreover, several countries,

including Thailand, Senegal, and

Uganda, have managed to stem the

tide of the pandemic. These examples give hope that the AIDS pandemic can be successfully curtailed

in other countries.

MORE INFORMATION

Global Population Profile: 2002.

Report WP/02. Washington, DC:

U.S. Government Printing Office.

This report may be found on the

Internet at www/census.gov

/ipc/www/wp02.html.

The International Programs Center

(IPC) collects, assesses, and

analyzes population and related

statistical information from all

countries. Based on these data,

IPC produces demographic estimates and projections used in

Global Population Profile: 2002

and other reports. Additional

information is available from the

International Programs Center,

Population Division, U.S. Census

Bureau, Washington, DC. 

20233-8860. (Internet site:

www.census.gov/ipc/www

/index.html; e-mail:

ipc@census.gov).

4 U.S. Census Bureau

Percent seropositive

Figure 5.

Adult HIV Prevalence in Africa: December 2001 

A dozen Sub-Saharan African countries now 

have HIV infection rates in excess of 10 percent 

of the adult population ages 15-49.

Source: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and the World Health 

Organization, Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic July 2002.

Under 1

1 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 19

20 and over

Not available