Economic and Electricity Demand Analysis and

Comparison of the Council’s 1995 Forecast to Current Data

By Debbie Hollen, Research Associate, BPA1

September, 2001

Introduction

Energy is a critical component of most human activity. It is an important ingredient in industrial

production and provides essential services to support our standard of living. It should not be surprising

therefore, that the levels of household and business activity in the regional economy are the dominant

determinants of electricity demand both now and in the future. The objective of this analysis is to

compare actual economic and demographic trends from 1991-2000 with the Council’s forecast

assumptions, and based on the results make a recommendation regarding changes to the energy demand

forecast process for the upcoming fifth power plan.

The energy and economic forecasts were last updated in September of 1995, when the most recent actual

data available was for 1993. The comparisons in this analysis highlight areas where economic activity

has deviated from the assumptions, identify trends in key economic sectors and demographic measures,

and examine the differences for implications for the electricity demand forecast. In addition to looking at

the actual data from 1991-1999, the most recent individual short-term State economic forecast

information is also compared to the Council’s forecasts for years 2000-2003.

Electricity consumption occurs in three primary sectors. Electricity consumed in private homes is

included in the residential sector. Electricity consumed in manufacturing business activities is included in

the industrial sector. The commercial sector includes electricity consumed in non-manufacturing business

activities and includes electricity consumed in office buildings, hospitals, retail stores, restaurants,

warehouses etc... The price of electricity and the price of alternative energy forms, such as natural gas,

are also important determinants of electricity demand and are key components of the Council’s demand

forecast. These factors will be evaluated in a future report.

Methods

Actual data on population, households, and twenty-four different employment sector combinations were

collected from various sources for each of the 4 Northwest States and compared to the assumptions made

in developing the Council’s demand forecasts. The employment comparisons between actual and Council

forecasts are based on three-State totals (Oregon, Washington & Idaho). Montana is excluded due to the

lack of available data for the 16 western counties and their relatively small contribution to total

employment numbers. Montana information is available and included for analysis of the population, and

households, as well as electricity sales.

Given a 20-year time period and the recognized uncertainty in forecasting that far into the future, the

Council forecasts were developed to bracket the highest and lowest plausible economic scenarios. This

wide range of forecast scenarios supports a flexible strategy to make long-term decisions and investments

in the Region. When compared with reliance on a single forecast, the broader range of scenarios provides

information to help decision makers reduce the risk of either not having an adequate supply of electricity

for the potential growth that could be experienced or of expensive investments in unnecessary resources if

the potential growth does not materialize. Inside the highest and lowest scenarios is a more likely range

 

1

 With assistance from Terry Morlan, Manager, Economic Analysis, NPPC and Debbie Kitchin, Interworks, LLC
of outcomes that are considered about equally probable. These more likely outcomes are bounded by the

medium-high and medium-low values that are displayed in the figures in this analysis.

Results

Demographics

Total population and total households in the region are broad indicators of the potential for overall

economic growth and energy demand. Total population helps determine the available labor force and the

total number of households in the region, which is the primary indicator of residential energy demand. As

shown in Figure 1, census 2000 information indicates that the actual population is higher than the

Council’s medium forecast but it is still below the medium-high forecast level. Figure 2 shows that the

2000 population was under forecast by about 1.5 percent, or slightly over one year’s worth of population

growth. The Council’s medium forecast of population is tracking very closely to the inter-census

population estimates made by the US Census Bureau prior to 2000, although slightly under the census

estimates. A significant adjustment in population estimates during a census year is not uncommon and

inter-census data estimates will likely be revised to show a more consistent growth trend between census

years 1990 and 2000. If this occurs, the Council’s forecast for these inter-census years will be further

under forecast, but are not likely to exceed the relatively small percentage error for year 2000.

Figure 1

Total Regional Population

1990-2000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

1990

Census

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Census

Year

Thousands of People

Actual

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Figure 2

Percent Difference between 

Actual and Medium Forecast Population Data

-1.8%

-1.6%

-1.4%

-1.2%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

1990

Census

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Census

Year

Percent Error

The Council’s forecasts for households are also tracking very closely with the inter-census household

estimates made by the US Census Bureau. This comparison is shown in Figure 3. Although the regional

population estimate increased in census year 2000 data, it is interesting to note that total households do

not show a comparable increase. At this broad scale, there appears to be no need to modify the Council’s

forecast assumptions for either population or households since both remain well within the bounds of the

most likely forecast scenario.

Figure 3

Total Regional Households

1990-2000

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Thousands of Households

Actual

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

* No Actual Data 

Available for 1999

*
Employment

Employment forecasts are a widely used measure of economic activity. Changes in employment are a key

driver of energy needs. The Northwest, which along with the Nation has recently experienced the longest

economic expansion in history, has experienced significant economic growth during the last decade. The

Council forecasts 49 individual employment sectors and this information is used to help forecast

electricity demands. Many industries are cyclical in nature and experience significant growth followed by

equally significant declines. The Council’s forecasts do not attempt to predict these short-term cycles but

instead reflect probable long-term trends for the industry. While the Council’s forecasts do not reflect

short-term changes it is important to understand where we are in the business cycle in order to interpret

the results of the comparison. Currently the US economy and the Northwest Economy are in the midst of

a slowdown, and although it does not appear to be a recession, it is nonetheless very difficult to forecast

for the short-term during times of transition. Recent events have added to the economic uncertainty.

Two major categories of business activity are typically distinguished in analyzing regional economic

growth. Non-manufacturing businesses include activities such as services, construction, wholesale and

retail trade, mining, agriculture and government. Non-manufacturing employment represents

approximately 87 percent of total employment in the 3 State area. Electricity consumed in these activities

is assigned to the commercial demand sector. Although a significant employer, electricity use by the nonmanufacturing sector is estimated to represent only 38 percent of the electricity use by businesses. The

second major category of business economic activity, manufacturing, is engaged in the transformation of

substances or materials into new products. Manufacturing employment represents a significantly smaller

proportion of total employment (about 13 percent), however, the sector’s electricity use is significantly

higher (about 62 percent). Electricity consumed in these activities is assigned to the industrial electricity

demand sector. Differences from forecast values for employment in one sector can offset opposite

differences in other sectors although there is not a direct relationship due to the differences in energy use.

Twenty-four different sector or sector combinations were compared with the Council’s forecasts. The

majority of the sectors are very closely tracking the most likely forecast scenarios. This paper focuses on

just those sectors with noteworthy differences. A complete display of all sector comparisons can be found

in Appendix A.

The data is discussed and displayed first for the total non-manufacturing sector, followed by individual

discussions of non-manufacturing sectors with noteworthy deviations from the forecast values.

Comparisons of total manufacturing industries follow, again with individual discussions of manufacturing

sectors with noteworthy deviations from the forecast values. A description of each Sector or group that is

taken directly from the Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1987 is provided in Italics at the

beginning of each discussion. Actual data is displayed through 2000. Short-term forecast information

from 3 States is plotted on the actual data line for 2001-2003 and is denoted as a dashed-line for this time

period.
Non-Manufacturing Employment

The Council forecasts employment for 19 individual non-manufacturing sectors. These were summarized

into 10 major sectors, which were evaluated for this analysis. Non-manufacturing activities account for

the bulk of total employment. It includes sectors such as, services, trade, government, transportation,

communications, finance, insurance, real estate, and energy sales and delivery. Economic activity in the

non-manufacturing sectors tends to be less cyclical than manufacturing. In addition, electricity use is

more uniformly related to employment. Most electricity consumption in the commercial sector occurs in

buildings where the requirements per employee are relatively similar. Employees in different nonmanufacturing sectors drive forecasts of electricity use in ten different building types, such as offices,

schools, hospitals, groceries, and restaurants.

When aggregated these sectors consistently track between the Council’s medium and medium-high

forecast levels, although there is a trend towards the medium-high values. The States short-term forecasts

continue to predict that these sectors will remain within the Council’s most likely economic scenarios (see

Figure 4).

Figure 4

Non Manufacturing Employment 

(excluding agricultural employment)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thousands)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

Several individual non-manufacturing sectors are showing noteworthy differences from the Council’s

most likely scenarios. These individual sectors are discussed in more detail below. Non-manufacturing

sectors not specifically discussed are tracking with the Council’s forecast values.
Noteworthy Variations in Forecasts for Non-Manufacturing Sectors

Services: This division includes establishments primarily engaged in providing a wide variety of services

for individuals, business and government establishments, and other organizations. Hotels and other

lodging places; establishments providing personal business, repair, and amusement services; health,

legal, engineering and other professional services; education institutions; membership organizations, and

other miscellaneous services are included.

This sector is noteworthy due to the high levels of employment experienced throughout the Region. The

services sector has tracked very closely to the Council’s medium-high forecast since 1996, and is

projected by state forecasters to be above the medium-high forecast levels between 2000 and 2003 (see

Figure 5). Although this sector has been tracking the medium-high scenario, it is important to remember

that the probability of occurrence is considered roughly equal between the medium-high and medium-low

values. In addition, the States’ forecasts for continued increases in this sector may be optimistic given the

current economic decline in the internet and computer services industries.

Figure 5

Services Employment

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thousands)

Actual and States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Transportation and Public Utilities: This division includes establishments providing, to the general

public or to other business enterprises, passenger and freight transportation, communications services, or

electricity, gas, steam, water or sanitary services, and all establishments of the United States Postal

Service

The transportation and public utilities sector has experienced increased unpredicted growth between 1995

and 2000, with continued growth projected out to 2003 (see Figure 6). The sector is dominated by

transportation employers (e.g., trucking, delivery etc.) that are not large users of electricity; but also

includes wireless communications and internet service providers. The most significant growth was seen

in Washington State with an increase of approximately 42,000 positions. If the trend continues as

projected into 2003 the projected actual level will be 13 percent over the Council’s medium forecast level.

Figure 6

Transportation & Public Utilities Employment

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thousands)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Construction: This division includes establishments primarily engaged in construction. The term

construction includes new work, additions, alterations, reconstruction, installations and repairs.

Construction employment does not directly affect the energy demand forecasts but information is

included on it because the actual values consistently lie outside the Council’s medium-high through

medium-low forecasts.

The construction sector has seen continued and unpredicted growth between 1996 and 2000, likely related

to the period of unprecedented economic growth that both the Nation and the Region have experienced.

According to the States short-term forecasts the growth is expected to continue through 2003 (see Figure

7). The largest increases are attributable to Washington State with a projected increase of approximately

49,000 employees. Oregon follows closely with a projected increase of approximately 38,000 employees.

Figure 7

Construction Employment

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thousands)

Actual & States

Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Manufacturing Employment

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector is the primary determinant of energy use in the industrial

sector. While employment is a general indicator of that economic activity it is not used directly to drive

the industrial sector forecasts. Energy use is more directly related to industrial production, which also

depends on assumptions about productivity growth in the manufacturing sectors. Productivity

assumptions have not been evaluated in this review. Nevertheless, employment trends are a good

indicator of the general assumptions that support the industrial demand forecasts.

The manufacturing employment forecasts include 29 different manufacturing industry sectors. Each

sector uses electricity in different ways to produce its products. As a result, the relationship between the

economic activity forecast and the electricity demand vary dramatically among the different

manufacturing sectors. In fact, 5 of the 29 manufacturing sectors account for about 85 percent of total

industrial electricity consumption. Those same five sectors account for only a third of manufacturing

employment. The five major industrial consumers of electricity are primary metals (dominated by

aluminum in this region), paper, chemicals, lumber and wood products, and food processing. The largest

consumer of electricity is primary metals, which is dominated by aluminum plants. Aluminum demand

for electricity is not modeled using economic assumption, but rather is determined by direct assumption.

In addition to being highly individualistic, manufacturing sector economic activity, and therefore

electricity use, tends to be more cyclical than other sectors. This is evident in the actual data on

manufacturing employment, but is not reflected in the forecasts of employment because the forecasts

focus on long-term trends and do not attempt to address business cycles. The presence of business cycles

makes it more difficult to assess the forecast trends for manufacturing and the industrial sector based on a

relatively short historical period.

For this analysis we reviewed 14 sector or sector aggregates that represented 23 of the 29 manufacturing

sectors. The sectors that were not evaluated, when combined represent less than 10 percent of the

manufacturing employment and individually represent no more than 3 percent of the total manufacturing

employment. Several sectors that were evaluated are showing noteworthy differences from the Council’s

most likely scenarios. These individual sectors are discussed in more detail below. Manufacturing

sectors not specifically discussed are tracking with the Council’s forecast values or represent an

insignificant proportion of the demand forecast.

Total manufacturing employment is tracking closely to the Council’s medium forecast with a significant

exception from 1996-2000 related to a cyclical increase in transportation equipment employment in

Washington (primarily Boeing), and an increase in electronics employment in Oregon during the same

time period (see Figure 8). The States short-term forecasts indicate a continued trend that tracks with the

Council’s medium forecast.
Figure 8

Manufacturing Employment

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thousands)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium 

Medium Low

Noteworthy Variations in Forecasts for Manufacturing Sectors

Transportation Equipment: This major group includes establishments engaged in manufacturing

equipment for transportation of passengers and cargo by land, air, and water. Important products

produced by establishments in this group include motor vehicles, aircraft, guided missiles and space

vehicles, ships, boats, railroad equipment and miscellaneous transportation equipment such as

motorcycles, bicycles, and snowmobiles.

Transportation equipment manufacturing employment is typically cyclical in nature and difficult to track

on a short-term basis. This sector experienced a significant cyclical growth and then decline, during the

1996-2000 period. This cycle is reflected in a significant increase in employment in Washington

(primarily Boeing) which experienced an increase of 33,000 jobs between 1995 and 1998, and then a

corresponding decrease of 28,000 jobs between 1998 and 2000 (see Figure 9). Short-term forecasts by the

states indicate that the Council’s medium forecast may be slightly low (about 5 percent), for this sector,

however, due to the cyclical nature of this sector a change is not warranted.
Figure 9

Transportation Equipment Employment 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thousands)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

** Forecasted Idaho Data is 

estimated based on 2000 actual 

employment value

  ** 

Electronic and Other Electronic Equipment: This group includes establishments engaged in

manufacturing machinery, apparatus, and supplies for the generation, storage, transmission,

transformation, and utilization of electrical energy. Included are the manufacturing of electricity

distribution equipment; electrical apparatus; household appliances; electrical lighting and wiring

equipment; radio and television receiving equipment communications equipment, electronic components

and accessories, and other electrical equipment and supplies.

The electronic and other electronic equipment sector experienced significant unpredicted growth between

1994 and 2000 (see Figure 10). The majority of this growth is due to increases in employment in Oregon

in the high technology manufacturing industry. This growth level exceeds the Council’s unlikely high

forecast level, and if it continues as projected by the States short-term forecasts will be 21 percent over

the medium forecast level in 2000. This sector when combined with transportation equipment accounts

for all of the increase in growth at the aggregate level of manufacturing employment between 1994 and

1997. Without the offsetting declines seen in other industries (e.g., Paper & Allied products) a change to

the Council’s forecast for the industrial energy demand could be warranted.
Figure 10

Electronic & Other Electric Equipment 

Employment 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thousands)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

Forecast HIGH Values

** Idaho Forecast data is based 

on forecasted changes in 

Manufacturing Employment 

Levels

  ** 

Paper and Allied Products: This group includes establishments primarily engaged in the manufacture of

pulps from wood and other cellulose fibers, and from rags; the manufacture of paper and paperboard;

and the manufacture of paper and paperboard into converted products, such as paper coated off the

paper machine, paper bags, paper boxes, and envelopes. Also included are establishments primarily

engaged in manufacturing bags of plastic film and sheet.

Paper and allied products’ manufacturing has seen a steady decline from 1991-2000 and is projected to

continue to decline slightly between 2000-2003. Although this sector was forecast to decline the actual

rate of decline exceeds the Council’s unlikely low forecast scenario (see Figure 11). A total decrease of

approximately 4400 jobs between 1991 and 2000 represents a 15 percent decrease sector-wide, and an 8

percent difference from the medium forecast levels for 2003. This sector utilizes a large amount of

energy resources for manufacturing and processing its products. In 1989 the sector was projected to

represent 20 percent of the electricity consumed by industry as a whole in the region (1991 Power Plan).

This reduction of energy demand within the region without offsetting increases seen in other sectors (e.g.,

Electronic & Other Electronic Equipment) could require adjustments to the electricity demand forecast.
Figure 11

Paper & Allied Products 

Employment 

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thousands)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

Forecast LOW values

** Idaho Data is Proxy data for 

States Forecast

  ** 
Energy Demand/Load Implications

There is no actual data on electricity consumption in individual non-manufacturing or manufacturing

sectors. Therefore we cannot directly check what the effect of specific errors in the economic

assumptions might be on the accuracy of that sector’s demand forecast. What we can do is check whether

the aggregate demand forecasts and forecasts of the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors are in

error. For the total demand comparison, the loads of the aluminum and other industries served directly by

Bonneville (DSI) are removed. The DSI component is not affected by economic assumptions. The actual

total Non-DSI sales of electricity are slightly under the medium forecast level. The over-forecast

averages 1.3 percent from 1997-1999 (see Figure 12). These small errors appear to be related partly to

errors in the industrial forecast.

Figure 12

Total Non-DSI Sales Versus Forecasts

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

18000

18500

19000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Years

Average Megawatts

Actual

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

Between 1994 and 1999 (the last year of actual sales data available), the Council’s medium forecasts of

non-DSI industrial demand averaged 3.9 percent over actual levels (see Figure 13)2. The industrial sector

of electricity demand is dominated by relatively few industries and their forecasts are not directly related

to employment, but are driven by the production levels of each of those specific industries. Determining

the relationship between the actual employment figures and electricity use is therefore difficult. The

paper and allied products industry which is a significant share of the industrial energy demand did

experience unexpected declines in employment which may partially explain the over-forecast of sales in

this sector (see Figure 11).

 

2

 The average error of the non-DSI industrial forecast and therefore the total non-DSI forecast may be overstated by an error in

the actual 1999 sales data used. Correcting this by using an alternate source to estimate actual industrial sales results in an

average industrial error of only 2.6 percent for 1994-1999.
Figure 13

Non DSI Industrial Sales Versus Forecasts

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200

5400

5600

5800

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Years

Average Megawatts

Actual

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

Commercial sector electricity demand is tracking within 1 percent of the Council’s medium forecast

values. This result is apparently due to offsetting errors in the relationship of employment to energy use

in these sectors, since given the recent period of economic growth and the under-forecast of nonmanufacturing employment, we would have expected the Council’s forecast to be lower than the actual

demand. The residential sector of electricity demand is tracking very closely to the Council’s medium

forecast values. This result was expected since the total households’ forecast, are directly tracking the

medium forecast values.

Conclusions

The Region as a whole has experienced a period of strong growth in both population and employment

during the last decade. Some sectors increased (e.g., electronics & electrical components, services) and

some sectors declining (e.g., paper and allied products).

The non-manufacturing sector, which employs the highest number of employees, is closely tracking the

Councils medium-high forecast scenario. Manufacturing industries, which consume a significant amount

of energy in the Region, saw a cyclical period of growth and decline and are projected to continue to track

very closely to the Council’s medium forecast scenario into 2003. With a very few exceptions the

Council’s economic forecasts for demographics and employment are adequately predicting the actual

values that the Region is experiencing. Under-forecast errors in individual sectors appear to be offset by

over-forecast errors in other sectors with an overall balancing effect occurring at the aggregate levels of

manufacturing and non-manufacturing.

Given the significant and unprecedented period of economic growth the Region has experienced it would

follow that we would also see electricity sales that exceed the forecast values. The electricity sales data

however, indicate that the actual sales are also reasonably tracking with the Council’s medium forecasts.
The electricity sales are likely tracking the medium forecast values because of the particular industries

that experienced the most growth are not large consumers of energy. Several industries where energy

consumption is high actually experienced significant declines in employment. It appears therefore, that

the offsetting forecast errors from the economic analysis also produced offsetting errors in the energy

demand forecast.

Based on this analysis it is my recommendation that the economic forecast assumptions are reasonably

accurate and useable for the long-term outlook in the fifth power plan. No changes to the non-DSI

electricity demand forecasts are indicated by this assessment of the underlying economic assumptions.

Actual fuel prices will also affect the energy demand forecasts, that analysis is currently underway and

when complete may or may not provide information that would dictate an adjustment in the demand

forecast. In the short-term actual data could continue to be monitored for key industries (e.g., electronic

and other electronic equipment) and if trends do not appear to be off-set in other industries short-term

adjustments could be implemented.

________________________________________
Appendix A

Demographic and Employment Sector Comparisons

Evaluated for Review of

the Council’s Economic Assumptions
Total Employment 

(Excluding Agriculture )

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Employees (Thousands)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Non Agricultural Employment

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Primary Metals (including Aluminum)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

States Short-term Forecast 

values are proxy data based 

on manufacturing growth 

projections for Oregon & 

Idaho, actual forecast values 

may be different.
Electronics (35, 36, & 38) 

Employment

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Machinery Except Electrical (SIC 3500)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

** Idaho Forecast data is 

based on forecasted 

changes in Manufacturing

  ** 

Short-term Forecast info from 

States indicates:

WA continues slow decline 

losing 1.2 by 2003

OR continues decline losing 

4.1 by 2003

ID projects increase by 2003
Instruments & Related Products

SIC 3800 

Washington & Oregon

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

No Idaho Data Available for this SIC 

Code. Data represents Oregon & 

Washington only for both the Coucnil 

totals, and the Actual totals 
Food & Kindred Products

SIC 2000

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Lumber & Wood Products

SIC 2400

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Chemicals & Allied Products

 SIC 2800

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low

**  

**  Oregon Data is Proxy 

data for States Forecast
Trade (Wholesale & Retail) Employment

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Wholesale Trade

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Retail Trade

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Employees (Thous)

Actuals

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Finance Insurance & Real Estate (FIRE)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low
Mining

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Employees (Thous)

Actual & States Forecast

Medium High

Medium

Medium Low