# Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPUFF

and Other Long Range Transport Models Using

Tracer Field Experiment DataEPA-454/R-12-003

May 2012

Documentation of the Evaluation of CALPU FF and Other Long Range Transport Models

Using Tracer Field Experiment Data

By:

ENVIRON International Corporation

773 San Marin Drive, Suite 2115

Novato, CA 94998

Prepared for:

Tyler Fox, Group Leader

Air Quality Modeling Group

Contract No. EP-D-07-102

Work Order No. 4

Task Order No. 06

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

Air Quality Assessment Division

Air Quality Modeling Group

Research Triangle Park, NC

## FOREWARD

This report documents the evaluation of the CALPUFF and other Long Range Transport (LRT)

dispersion models using several inert tracer study field experiment data. The LRT dispersion

modeling was performed primarily by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during

the 2008

‐ 2010 time period and builds off several previous LRT dispersion modeling studies that

evaluated models using tracer study field experiments (EPA, 1986; 1998a; Irwin, 1997). The

work was performed primarily by Mr. Bret Anderson while he was with EPA Region VII,

EPA/OAQPS and the United States Forest Service (USFS). Mr. Roger Brode and Mr. John Irwin

(retired) of the EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) also assisted in the

LRT model evaluation. The LRT modeling results were provided to ENVIRON International

Corporation who quality assured and documented the results in this report under Task 4 of

Work Assignment No. 4

‐ 06 of EPA Contract EP

‐ D

‐ 07

‐ 102. The report was prepared for the Air

Quality Modeling Group (AQMG) at EPA/OAQPS that is led by Mr. Tyler Fox. Dr. Sarav

Arunachalam from the University Of North Carolina (UNC) Institute for Environment was the

Work Assignment Manager (WAM) for the prime contractor to EPA. The report was prepared

by Ralph Morris, Kyle Heitkamp and Lynsey Parker of ENVIRON.

Numerous people provided assistance and guidance to EPA in the data collection, operation

and evaluation of the LRT dispersion models. We would like to acknowledge assistance from

the following people:

• AJ Deng (Penn State University)

– MM5SCIPUFF

• Doug Henn and Ian Sykes (Sage)

– SCIPUFF guidance

• Roland Draxler (NOAA ARL)

‐ HYSPLIT

• Petra Siebert (University of Natural Resources

– Vienna), Andreas Stohl (NILU)

– FLEXPART

• Joseph Scire and Dave Strimaitis (Exponent)

– CAPTEX meteorological observations and

puff

‐ splitting sensitivity tests guidance

• Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) Development Team:

‐ EPA OAQPS; EPA Region 7, EPA Region 10; US Department of Interior (USDOI) Fish &

Wildlife Service Branch of Air Quality, USDOI National Park Service Air Division and US

Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service Air Resources Management Program

## Contents

Page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

ABSTRACT 1

INTRODUCTION 1

Near

‐ Source and Far

‐ Field Dispersion Models 1

CALPUFF Modeling Guidance 2

Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) Tool 2

OVERVIEW OF APPROACH 3

Tracer Test Field Experiments 3

LRT Dispersion Models Evaluated 3

Evaluation Methodology 4

MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF LRT DISPERSION MODELS 8

1980 Great Plains (GP80) Field Experiment 8

1975 Savannah River Laboratory (SRL75) Field Experiment 11

Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) 12

European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) 23

CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL TRACER TEST EVALUATION 29

1.0 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 BACKGROUND 1

1.2 PURPOSE 3

1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT 4

2.0 OVERVIEW OF APPROACH 5

2.1 SUMMARY OF TRACER TEST FIELD EXPERIMENTS 5

2.2 SUMMARY OF LRT DISPERSION MODELS 5

2.3 RELEATED PREVIOUS STUDIES 7

2.3.1 1986 Evaluation of Eight Short

‐ Term Long Range Transport Models 7

2.3.2 Rocky Mountain Acid Deposition Model Assessment Project

– Western

Atmospheric Deposition Task Force 8

2.3.3 Comparison of CALPUFF Modeling Results to Two Tracer Field Experiments 9

2.3.4 ETEX and ATMES

‐ II 9

2.3.5 Data Archive of Tracer Experiments and Meteorology (DATEM) 12

2.4 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION APROACHES AND METHODS 13

2.4.1 Model Evaluation Philosophy 13

2.4.2 Irwin Plume Fitting Model Evaluation Approach 142.4.3 ATMES

‐ II Model Evaluation Approach 15

3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 20

3.1 DESCRIPTION OF 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY 20

3.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION 20

3.2.1 CALPUFF/CALMET BASE Case Model Configuration 21

3.2.2 GP80 CALPUFF/CALMET Sensitivity Tests 27

3.2.3 CALPUFF/MMIF Sensitivity Tests 29

3.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE 30

3.4 GP80 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 31

3.4.1 CALPUFF GP80 Evaluation for the 100 km Arc of Receptors 32

3.4.2 CALPUFF GP80 Evaluation for the 600 km Arc of Receptors 40

3.4.3 SLUG and Puff Splitting Sensitivity Tests for the 600 km Arc 51

3.5 CONCLUSIONS ON GP80 TRACER TEST EVALUATION 53

4.0 1975 SAVANNAH RIVER LABORATORY FIELD STUDY 55

4.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE 1975 SAVANNAH RIVER LABORATORY FIELD STUDY 55

4.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION 55

4.2.1 CALMET Options 56

4.2.2 CALPUFF Control Options 58

4.2.3 SRL75 CALPUFF/CALMET Sensitivity Tests 60

4.2.4 CALPUFF/MMIF Sensitivity Tests 61

4.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE 62

4.4 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION FOR THE SRL75 TRACER EXPERIMENT 63

4.5 CONCLUSIONS OF THE SRL75 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 66

5.0 1983 CROSS APPALACHIAN TRACER EXPERIMENT 67

5.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE 1983 CROSS APPALACHIAN TRACER EXPERIMENT 67

5.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION 68

5.2.1 MM5 Prognostic Meteorological Modeling 69

5.2.2 CALMET Diagnostic Meteorological Modeling 72

5.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE 74

5.4 CALPUFF MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION FOR CAPTEX 76

5.4.1 CALPUFF CTEX3 Model Performance Evaluation 77

5.4.2 CALPUFF CTEX5 Model Performance Evaluation 87

5.5 CONCLUSIONS OF THE CAPTEX TRACER SENSITIVITY TESTS 96

6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT 986.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT 98

6.1.1 ETEX Field Study 98

6.1.2 Synoptic Conditions 99

6.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION 102

6.2.1 Experimental Design 102

6.2.2 Meteorological Inputs 103

6.2.3 LRT Model Configuration and Inputs 104

6.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE 107

6.3.1 Quality Assurance of the Meteorological Inputs 107

6.3.2 Quality Assurance of the LRT Model Inputs 110

6.4 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 110

6.4.1 Statistical Model Performance Evaluation 110

6.4.2 Spatial Displays of Model Performance 118

6.4.3 CAMx Sensitivity Tests 123

6.4.4 CALPUFF Sensitivity Tests 129

6.4.5 HYSPLIT Sensitivity Tests 134

6.5 CONCLUSIONS OF THE MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE LRT DISPERSION

MODELS USING THE ETEX TRACER EXPERIMENT FIELD STUDY DATA 141

7.0 REFERENCES 142



### Appendices

Appendix A: Evaluation of the MM5 and CALMET Meteorological Models Using the CAPTEX

CTEX5 Field Experiment Data

Appendix B: Evaluation of Various Configurations of the CALMET Meteorological Model Using

the CAPTEX CTEX3 Field Experiment Data

Appendix C: Intercomparison of LRT Models against the CAPTEX Release 3 and Release 5 Field

Experiment Data1 

## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ABSTRACT

The CALPUFF Long Range Transport (LRT) air quality dispersion modeling system is evaluated

against several atmospheric tracer field experiments. Meteorological inputs for CALPUFF were

generated using MM5 prognostic meteorological model processed using the CALMET diagnostic

wind model with and without meteorological observations. CALPUFF meteorological inputs

were also generated using the Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) tool that performs a direct

“pass through” of the MM5 meteorological variables to CALPUFF without any adjustments or

re

‐ diagnosing of meteorological variables, as is done by CALMET. The effects of alternative

options in CALMET on the CALMET meteorological model performance and the performance of

the CALPUFF LRT dispersion model for simulating observed atmospheric tracer concentrations

was analyzed. The performance of CALPUFF was also compared against past CALPUFF

evaluation studies using an earlier version of CALPUFF and some of the same tracer test field

experiments as used in this study. In addition, up to five other LRT dispersion models were also

evaluated against some of the tracer field experiments. CALPUFF and the other LRT models

represent three distinct types of LRT dispersion models: Gaussian puff, particle and Eulerian

photochemical grid models. Numerous sensitivity tests were conducted using CALPUFF and the

other LRT models to elucidate the effects of alternative meteorological inputs on dispersion

model performance for the tracer field studies, as well as to intercompare the performance of

the different dispersion models.

INTRODUCTION

Near

‐ Source and Far

‐ Field Dispersion Models

Dispersion models, such as the Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST) or American

Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) typically

assume steady

‐ state, horizontally homogeneous wind fields instantaneously over the entire

modeling domain and are usually limited to distances of less than 50 kilometers from a source.

However, dispersion model applications of distances of hundreds of kilometers from a source

require other models or modeling systems. At these distances, the transport times are

sufficiently long that the mean wind fields can no longer be considered steady

‐ state or

homogeneous. As part of the Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) program, new

sources or proposed modifications to existing sources may be required to assess the air quality

and Air Quality Related Value (AQRV) impacts at Class I and sensitive Class II areas that may be

far away from the source (e.g., > 50 km). AQRVs include visibility and acid (sulfur and nitrogen)

deposition. At these far downwind distances, the steady

‐ state Gaussian plume assumptions of

models like ISCST and AERMOD are likely not valid and Long Range Transport (LRT) dispersion

models are required.

The Interagency Workgroup on Air Quality Modeling (IWAQM) consists of the U.S. EPA and

Federal Land Managers (FLMs; i.e., NPS, USFS and FWS) and was formed to provide a focus for

the development of technically sound recommendations regarding assessment of air pollutant

source impacts on Federal Class I areas. One objective of the IWAQM is the recommendation

of LRT dispersion models for assessing air quality and AQRVs at Class I areas. One such LRT

dispersion model is the CALPUFF Gaussian puff modeling system, which includes the CALMET

diagnostic wind model and the CALPOST post

‐ processor. In 1998, EPA published a report that

evaluated CALPUFF against two short

‐ term tracer test field experiments (EPA, 1998a). Later in

1998 IWAQM released their Phase II recommendations (EPA, 1998b) that included2 recommendations for using the CALPUFF LRT dispersion model for addressing far

‐ field air

quality and AQRV issues at Class I areas. The IWAQM Phase II report did not recommend any

specific settings for running CALMET and noted that the required expert judgment to develop a

set of recommended CALMET settings would be developed over time.

In 2003, EPA issued revisions to the Guidelines on Air Quality Models (Appendix W) that

recommended using the CALPUFF LRT dispersion model to address far

‐ field (> 50 km) air quality

issues associated with chemically inert compounds. The EPA Air Quality Modeling Guidelines

were revised again in 2005 to include AERMOD as the EPA

‐ recommended dispersion model for

near

‐ source (< 50 km) air quality issues.

CALPUFF Modeling Guidance

EPA convened a CALPUFF workgroup starting in 2005 to help identify issues with the 1998

IWAQM Phase II recommendations. The CALPUFF workgroup began to revisit the evaluation of

CALPUFF against tracer test field experiments. In May 2009, EPA released a reassessment of

the IWAQM Phase II recommendations (EPA, 2009a) that raised issues with settings used in

recent CALMET model applications. CALMET is typically applied using prognostic

meteorological model (i.e., MM5 or WRF) three

‐ dimensional wind fields as an input first guess

and then applying diagnostic wind effects (e.g., blocking, deflection, channeling and slope

flows) to produce a STEP1 wind field. CALMET then blends in surface and upper

‐ air

meteorological observations into the STEP1 wind field using an objective analysis (OA)

procedure to produce the resultant STEP2 to wind field that is provided as input into CALPUFF.

CALMET also diagnoses several other meteorological variables (e.g., mixing heights). CALMET

contains numerous options that can significantly affect the resultant meteorological fields. The

EPA IWAQM reassessment report found that the CALMET STEP1 diagnostic effects and STEP2

OA procedures can degrade the MM5/WRF wind fields. Furthermore, the IWAQM

reassessment report noted that options used in some past CALMET applications were selected

based on obtaining a desired outcome rather than based on good science. Consequently, the

2009 IWAQM reassessment recommended CALMET settings that would “pass through”

MM5/WRF meteorological fields as much as possible for input into CALPUFF. However, further

testing of CALMET by the EPA CALPUFF workgroup found that the recommended CALMET

settings in the May 2009 IWAQM reassessment report did not achieve the intended desired

result to “pass through” as much as possible the MM5/WRF meteorological variables as

CALMET still re

‐ diagnosed some and modified other meteorological variables. Based in part on

testing by the CALPUFF workgroup using the tracer test field experiments, on August 31, 2009

EPA released a Clarification Memorandum (EPA, 2009b) that contained specific EPA

‐ FLM

recommended settings for operating CALMET for regulatory applications.

Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) Tool

In the meantime, EPA has developed the Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) tool that will “pass

through” as much as possible the MM5/WRF meteorological output to CALPUFF without

modifying the meteorological fields (Emery and Brashers, 2009; Brashers and Emery 2011;

2012). The CALPUFF Workgroup has been evaluating the CALPUFF model using the CALMET

and MMIF meteorological drivers for four tracer test field experiments. For some of the field

experiments, additional LRT dispersion models have also been evaluated. This report

documents the work performed by the CALPUFF workgroup over the 2009

‐ 2011 time frame to

evaluate CALPUFF and other LRT dispersion models using four tracer test field experiment

databases.3 OVERVIEW OF APPROACH

Up to six LRT dispersion models were evaluated using four atmospheric tracer test field

experiments.

Tracer Test Field Experiments

LRT dispersion models are evaluated using four atmospheric tracer test field studies as follows:

1980 Great Plains : The 1980 Great Plains (GP80) field study released several tracers from

a site near Norman, Oklahoma in July 1980 and measured the tracers at two arcs to the

northeast at distances of 100 and 600 km (Ferber et al., 1981).

1975 Savannah River Laboratory : The 1975 Savannah River Laboratory (SRL75) study

released tracers from the SRL in South Carolina and measured them at receptors

approximately 100 km from the release point (DOE, 1978).

1983 Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment : The 1983 Cross Appalachian Tracer

Experiment (CAPTEX) was a series of five three

‐ hour tracer released from Dayton, OH or

Sudbury, Canada during September and October, 1983. Sampling was made in a series of

arcs approximately 100 km apart that spanned from 300 to 1,100 km from the Dayton, OH

release site.

1994 European Tracer Experiment : The 1994 European Tracer Experiment (ETEX)

consisted of two tracer releases from northwest France in October and November 1994

that was measured at 168 monitoring sites in 17 countries.

LRT Dispersion Models Evaluated

The six LRT dispersion models that were evaluated using the tracer test field study data in this

study were:

CALPUFF 1 : The California Puff (CALPUFF Version 5.8; Scire et al, 2000b) model is a

Lagrangian Gaussian puff model that simulates a continuous plume using overlapping

circular puffs. CALPUFF was applied using both the CALMET meteorological processor

(Scire et al., 2000a) that includes a diagnostic wind model (DWM) and the Mesoscale

Model Interface (MMIF; Emery and Brashers, 2009; Brashers and Emery, 2011; 2012) tool

that will “pass through” output from the MM5 or WRF prognostic meteorological models.

SCIPUFF 2 : The Second

‐ order Closure Integrated PUFF (SCIPUFF Version 2.303; Sykes et al.,

1998) is a Lagrangian puff dispersion model that uses Gaussian puffs to represent an

arbitrary, three

‐ dimensional time

‐ dependent concentration field. The diffusion

parameterization is based on turbulence closure theory, which gives a prediction of the

dispersion rate in terms of the measurable turbulent velocity statistics of the wind field.

HYSPLIT 3 : The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT Version

4.8; Draxler, 1997) is a complete system for computing simple air parcel trajectories to

complex dispersion and deposition simulations. The dispersion of a pollutant is calculated

by assuming either puff or particle dispersion. HYSPLIT was applied primarily in the default

particle model where a fixed number of particles are advected about the model domain by

the mean wind field and spread by a turbulent component.

1 http://www.src.com/calpuff/calpuff1.htm

2 http://www.sage

‐ mgt.net/services/modeling

‐ and

‐ simulation/scipuff

‐ dispersion

‐ model

3 http://www.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_info.php4 FLEXPART 4 : The FLEXPART (Version 6.2; Siebert, 2006; Stohl et al., 2005 5 ) model is a

Lagrangian particle dispersion model. FLEXPART was originally designed for calculating

the long

‐ range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such as after

an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a

comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis

CAMx 6 : The Comprehensive Air

‐ quality Model with extensions (CAMx; ENVIRON, 2010) is

a photochemical grid model (PGM) that simulates inert or chemical reactive pollutants

from the local to continental scale. As a grid model, it simulates transport and dispersion

using finite difference techniques on a three

‐ dimensional array of grid cells.

CALGRID : The California Mesoscale Photochemical Grid Model (Yamartino, et al., 1989,

Scire et al., 1989; Earth Tech, 2005) is a PGM that simulates chemically reactive pollutants

from the local to regional scale. CALGRID was originally designed to utilize meteorological

fields produced by the CALMET meteorological processor (Scire et al., 2000a), but was

updated in 2006 to utilize meteorology and emissions in UAM format (Earth Tech, 2006).

The six LRT dispersion models represent two non

‐ steady

‐ state Gaussian puff models (CALPUFF

and SCIPUFF), two three

‐ dimensional particle dispersion models (HYSPLIT and FLEXPART) and

two three

‐ dimensional photochemical grid models (CAMx and CALGRID). HYSPLIT can also be

run in a puff and hybrid particle/puff modes, which was investigated in sensitivity tests. All six

LRT models were evaluated using the CAPTEX Release 3 and 5 field experiments and five of the

six models (except CALGRID) were evaluated using the ETEX field experiment database.

Evaluation Methodology

Two different model performance evaluation methodologies were utilized in this study. The

Irwin (1997) fitted Gaussian plume approach, as used in the EPA 1998 CALPUFF evaluation

study (EPA, 1998a), was used for the same two tracer test field experiments used in the 1998

EPA study (i.e., GP80 and SRL75). This was done to elucidate how updates to CALPUFF model

over the last decade have improved its performance. The second model evaluation approach

adopts the spatial, temporal and global statistical evaluation framework of ATMES

‐ II (Mosca et.

al., 1998; Draxler et al., 1998). The ATMES

‐ II uses statistical performance metrics of spatial,

scatter, bias, correlation and cumulative distribution to describe model performance. An

important finding of this study is that the fitted Gaussian plume model evaluation approach is

very limited and can be a poor indicator of LRT dispersion model performance, with the ATMES

‐

II approach providing a more comprehensive assessment of LRT model performance.

Fitted Gaussian Plume Evaluation Approach

The fitted Gaussian plume evaluation approach fits a Gaussian plume across the observed and

predicted tracer concentrations along an arc of receptors at a specific downwind distance from

the tracer release site. The approach focuses on a LRT dispersion model’s ability to replicate

centerline concentrations and plume widths, modeled/observed plume centerline azimuth,

plume arrival time, and plume transit time across the arc. We used the fitted Gaussian plume

evaluation approach to evaluate CALPUFF for the GP80 and SRL75 tracer experiments where

the tracer concentrations were observed along arcs of receptors, as was done in the EPA 1998

CALPUFF evaluation study (EPA, 1998a).

4 http://transport.nilu.no/flexpart

5 http://www.atmos

‐ chem

‐ phys.net/5/2461/2005/acp

‐ 5

‐ 2461

‐ 2005.html

6 http://www.camx.com/5 CALPUFF performance is evaluated by calculating the predicted and observed cross

‐ wind

integrated concentration (CWIC), azimuth of plume centerline, and the second moment of

tracer concentration (lateral dispersion of the plume [ σ y ]). The CWIC is calculated by

trapezoidal integration across average monitor concentrations along the arc. By assuming a

Gaussian distribution of concentrations along the arc, a fitted plume centerline concentration

(Cmax) can be calculated by the following equation:

Cmax = CWIC/[(2 π ) 1⁄2 σ y ]

The measure σ y describes the extent of plume horizontal dispersion. This is important to

understanding differences between the various dispersion options available in the CALPUFF

modeling system. Additional measures for temporal analysis include plume arrival time and the

plume transit time on arc. Table ES

‐ 1 summarizes the spatial, temporal and concentration

statistical performance metrics used in the fitted Gaussian plume evaluation methodology.

Table ES

‐ 1. Model performance metrics used in the fitted Gaussian plume evaluation

methodology from Irwin (1997) and 1998 EPA CALPUFF Evaluation (EPA, 1998a).

Statistics Description

Spatial

Azimuth of Plume Centerline Comparison of the predicted angular displacement of the plume

centerline from the observed plume centerline on the arc

Plume Sigma

‐ y Comparison of the predicted and observed fitted plume widths

(i.e., dispersion rate)

Temporal

Plume Arrival Time Compare the time the predicted and observed tracer clouds

arrives on the receptor arc

Transit Time on Arc Compare the predicted and observed residence time on the

receptor arc

Concentration

Crosswind Integrated Concentration Compares the predicted and observed average concentrations

across the receptor arc

Observed/Calculated Maximum Comparison of the predicted and observed fitted Gaussian

plume centerline (maximum) concentrations (Cmax) and

maximum concentration at any receptor along the arc (Omax)

Spatial, Temporal and Global Statistics Evaluation Approach

The model evaluation methodology as employed in ATMES

‐ II (Mosca et al., 1998) and

recommended by Draxler et al., (2002) was also used in this study. This approach defines three

types of statistical analyses:

• Spatial Analysis : Concentrations at a fixed time are considered over the entire domain.

Useful for determining differences spatial differences between predicted and observed

concentrations.

• Temporal Analysis : Concentrations at a fixed location are considered for the entire

analysis period. This can be useful for determining differences between the timing of

predicted and observed tracer concentrations.

• Global Analysis : All concentration values at any time and location are considered in this

analysis. The global analysis considers the distribution of the values (probability),

overall tendency towards overestimation or underestimation of measured values (bias

and error), measures of scatter in the predicted and observed concentrations and

measures of correlation.6 Table ES

‐ 2 defines the twelve ATMES

‐ II spatial and global statistical metrics used in this study,

some of the temporal statistics were also calculated but not reported. The RANK model

performance statistic is designed to provide an overall score of model performance by

combining performance metrics of correlation/scatter (R 2 ), bias (FB), spatial (FMS) and

cumulative distribution (KS). Its use as an overall indication of the rankings of model

performance for different models was evaluated and found that it usually was a good

indication, but there were some cases where it could lead to misleading results and is not a

substitute for examining all performance attributes.7 Table ES

‐ 2. ATMES

‐ II spatial and global statistical metrics.

Statistical Metric Definition Perfect

Score

Spatial Statistics

Figure of Merit in Space

(FMS) 

### % 100 ×

∪ ∩

=

P M P M



### A A A A FMS

100%

False Alarm Rate (FAR) 

### % 100 × ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛

+ = b a a FAR

0%

Probability of Detection

(POD) 

### % 100 × ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛

+ = d b b POD

100%

Threat Score (TS) 

### % 100 × ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛

+ + = d b a b TS

100%

where, • “a” represents the number of times a condition that has

been forecast, but was not observed (false alarm)

• “ b” represents the number of times the condition

was correctly forecasted (hits)

• “c” represents the number of times the

nonoccurrence of the condition is correctly

forecasted (correct negative); and

• “d” represents the number of times that the

condition was observed but not forecasted (miss).

Global Statistics

Factor of Exceedance

(FOEX) ( ) % 100 5

. 0 × ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− = >

N N

FOEX i i Ni P 0%

Factor of α (FA2 and FA5) 

## [ ] ( )

100 0 0

× ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− =

−

= N x x y y N FA α

α 100%

Normalized Mean Squared

Error (NMSE) 

## ( ) 2 

### 1 

# ∑

− = i i 

### M P

PM N NMSE 0%

Pearson’s Correlation

Coefficient (PCC or R) 

# ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− − •

−

= 

# ∑ ∑ ∑

2 2 

### P P M M P P M M

R

i i i i i 1.0

Fraction Bias (FB) 

# ( ) M P B FB + = 2 0%

Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov (KS)

Parameter 

## ( ) ( )

k k 

### P C M C Max KS

− = 0%

RANK 

# ( ) ( ) 100 / 1 100 / 2 / 1 2 

### KS FMS FB R RANK

− + +

− + = 4.08 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF LRT DISPERSION MODELS

The CALPUFF LRT dispersion model was evaluated using four tracer test field study

experiments. Up to five additional LRT models were also evaluated using some of the field

experiments.

1980 Great Plains (GP80) Field Experiment

The CALPUFF LRT dispersion model was evaluated against the GP80 July 8, 1980 GP80 tracer

release from Norman, Oklahoma. The tracer was measured at two receptor arcs located 100

km and 600 km downwind from the tracer release point. The fitted Gaussian plume approach

was used to evaluate the CALPUFF model performance, which was the same approach used in

the EPA 1998 CALPUFF evaluation study (EPA, 1998a). CALPUFF was evaluated separately for

the 100 km and 600 km arc of receptors.

GP80 CALPUFF Sensitivity Tests

Several different configurations of CALMET and CALPUFF models were used in the evaluation

that varied CALMET grid resolution, grid resolution of the MM5 meteorological model used as

input to CALMET, and CALMET and CALPUFF model options, including:

• CALMET grid resolution of 4 and 10 km for 100 km and 4 and 20 km for 600 km receptor

arc.

• MM5 output grid resolution of 12, 36 and 80 km, plus no MM5 data.

• Use of surface and upper

‐ air meteorological data used as input to CALMET:

‐ A = Use surface and upper

‐ air observations;

‐ B = Use surface but not upper

‐ air observations; and

‐ C = Use no meteorological observations.

• Three CALPUFF dispersion algorithms:

‐ CAL = CALPUFF turbulence dispersion;

‐ AER = AERMOD turbulence dispersion; and

‐ PG = Pasquill

‐ Gifford dispersion.

• MMIF meteorological inputs for CALPUFF using 12 and 36 km MM5 data.

The “BASEA” CALPUFF/CALMET configuration was designed to emulate the configuration used

in the 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation study, which used only meteorological observations and

no MM5 data in the CALMET modeling and ran the CALPUFF CAL and PG dispersion options.

However, an investigation of the 1998 EPA evaluation study revealed that the slug near

‐ field

option was used in CALPUFF (MSLUG

= 1). The slug option is designed to better simulate a

continuous plume near the source and is a very non

‐ standard option for CALPUFF LRT

dispersion modeling. For the initial CALPUFF simulations, the slug option was used for the 100

km receptor arc, but not for the 600 km receptor arc. However, additional CALPUFF sensitivity

tests were performed for the 600 km receptor arc that investigated the use of the slug option,

as well as alternative puff splitting options.

Conclusions of GP80 CALPUFF Model Performance Results

For the 100 km receptor arc, there was a wide variation in CALPUFF model performance across

the sensitivity tests. The results were consistent with the 1998 EPA study with the following

key findings for the GP80 100 km receptor arc evaluation:9 • CALPUFF tended to overstate the maximum observed concentrations and understate the

plume widths at the 100 km receptor arc.

• The best performing CALPUFF configuration in terms of predicting the maximum observed

concentrations and plume width was when CALMET was run with MM5 data and surface

meteorological observations but no upper

‐ air meteorological observations.

• The CALPUFF CAL and AER turbulence dispersion options produced nearly identical results

and the performance of the CAL/AER turbulence versus PG dispersion options varied by

model configuration and statistical performance metric.

• The performance of CALPUFF/MMIF in predicting plume maximum concentrations and

plume widths was comparable or better than all of the CALPUFF/CALMET configurations,

except when CALMET used MM5 data and surface but no upper

‐ air meteorological

observations.

• The modeled plume centerline tended to be offset from the observed centerline location

by 0 to 14 degrees.

• Use of CALMET with just surface and upper

‐ air meteorological observations produced the

best CALPUFF plume centerline location performance, whereas use of just MM5 data with

no meteorological observations, either through CALMET or MMIF, produced the worst

plume centerline angular offset performance.

• Different CALMET configurations give the best CALPUFF performance for maximum

observed concentration (with MM5 and just surface and no upper

‐ air observations) versus

location of the plume centerline (no MM5 and both surface and upper

‐ air observations)

along the 100 km receptor arc. For Class I area LRT dispersion modeling it is important for

the model to estimate both the location and the magnitudes of concentrations.

The evaluation of the CALPUFF sensitivity tests for the 600 km arc of receptors included both

plume arrival, departure and residence time analysis as well as fitted Gaussian plume statistics.

The observed residence time of the tracer on the 600 km receptor arc was at least 12 hours.

Note that due to the presence of an unexpected low

‐ level jet, the tracer was observed at the

600 km receptor arc for the first sampling period. Thus, the observed 12 hour residence time is

a lower bound (i.e., the observed tracer could have arrived before the first sampling period).

The 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation study estimated tracer plume residence times of 14 and 13

hours, which compares favorably with the observed residence time (12 hours). However, the

1998 EPA study CALPUFF modeling had the tracer arriving at least 1 hour later and leaving 2

‐ 3

hours later than observed, probably due to the inability of CALMET to simulate the low

‐ level

jet.

Most (~90%) of the current study CALPUFF sensitivity tests underestimated the observed tracer

residence time on the 600 km receptor arc by approximately a factor of two. The exception to

this was: (1) the BASEA_PG CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity test (12 hours) that used just

meteorological observations in CALMET and the PG dispersion option in CALPUFF; and (2) the

CALPUFF/CALMET EXP2C series of experiments (residence time of 11

‐ 13 hours) that used 36 km

MM5 data and CALMET run at 4 km resolution with no meteorological observations (NOOBS

=

2). The remainder of the 28 CALPUFF sensitivity tests had tracer residence time on the 600 km

receptor arc of 4

‐ 8 hours; that is, almost 90% of the CALPUFF sensitivity tests failed to

reproduce the good tracer residence time performance statistics from the 1998 EPA study.

For the 600 km receptor arc, the CALPUFF sensitivity test fitted Gaussian plume statistics were

very different than the 100 km receptor arc as follows:10 • The maximum observed concentration along the arc or observed fitted centerline plume

concentration was underestimated by

‐ 42% to

‐ 72% and the plume widths overestimated

by 47% to 293%.

• The CALPUFF underestimation bias of the observed maximum concentration tends to be

improved using CALMET runs with no meteorological observations.

• The use of the PG dispersion option tends to exacerbate the plume width overestimation

bias relative to using the CAL or AER turbulence dispersion option.

• The CALPUFF predicted plume centerline tends to be offset from the observed value by 9

to 20 degrees, with the largest centerline offset (> 15 degrees) occurring when no

meteorological observations are used with either CALMET or MMIF

.

• The 1998 CALPUFF runs overestimated the observed CWIC by 15% and 30% but the

current study’s BASEA configuration, which was designed to emulate the 1998 EPA study,

underestimates the observed CWIC by

‐ 14% and

‐ 38%.

The inability of most (~90%) of the current study’s CALPUFF sensitivity tests to reproduce the

1998 EPA study tracer test residence time on the 600 km receptor arc is a cause for concern.

For example, the 1998 EPA study CALPUFF simulation using the CAL dispersion option estimates

a tracer residence time on the 600 km receptor arc of 13 hours that compares favorably to

what was observed (12 hours). However, the current study CALPUFF BASEA_CAL configuration,

which was designed to emulate the 1998 EPA CALPUFF configuration, estimates a residence

time of almost half of the 1998 EPA study (7 hours). One notable difference between the 1998

EPA and the current study CALPUFF modeling for the GP80 600 km receptor arc was the use of

the slug option in the 1998 EPA study. Another notable difference was the ability of the current

version of CALPUFF to perform puff splitting, which EPA has reported likely extends the

downwind distance applicability of the CALPUFF model (EPA, 2003). Thus, a series of CALPUFF

sensitivity tests were conducted using the BASEA_CAL CALPUFF/CALMET and MMIF_12KM CAL

and PG CALPUFF/MMIF configurations that invoked the slug option and performed puff

splitting. Two types of puff splitting were analyzed, default puff splitting (DPS) that turns on the

vertical puff splitting flag once per day and all hours puff splitting (APS) that turns on the puff

splitting flag for every hour of the day. The following are the key findings from the CALPUFF

slug and puff splitting sensitivity tests for the GP80 600 km receptor arc:

• Use of puff splitting had no effect on the tracer test residence time (7 hours) in the

CALPUFF/CALMET (BASEA_CAL) configuration.

• Use of the slug option with CALPUFF/CALMET increased the tracer residence time on the

600 km receptor arc from 7 to 15 hours, suggesting that the better performance of the

1998 EPA CALPUFF simulations on the 600 km receptor arc was due to invoking the slug

option.

• On the other hand, the CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests were more sensitivity to puff

splitting than CALPUFF/CALMET with the tracer residence time increasing from 6 to 8

hours using DPS and to 17 hours using APS when the CAL dispersion option was specified.

• The use of the slug option on top of APS has very different effect on the CALPUFF/MMIF

residence time along the 600 km receptor depending on which dispersion option is

utilized, with slug reducing the residence time from 17 to 15 hours using the CAL and

increasing the residence time from 11 to 20 hours using PG dispersion options.11 • The best performing CALPUFF configuration from all of the sensitivity tests when looking

at the performance across all of the fitted plume performance statistics was use of the

slug option with puff splitting in CALPUFF/MMIF.

A key result of the GP80 600 km receptor arc evaluation was the need to invoke the near

‐

source slug option to adequately reproduce the CALPUFF performance from the 1998 EPA

CALPUFF evaluation study. Given that the slug option is a very nonstandard option for LRT

dispersion modeling, this finding raises concern regarding the previous CALPUFF evaluation.

Another important finding of the GP80 CALPUFF sensitivity tests is the wide variation in

modeling results that can be obtained using the various options in CALMET and CALPUFF. This

is not a desirable attribute for regulatory modeling and emphasizes the need for a standardized

set of options for regulatory CALPUFF modeling.

1975 Savannah River Laboratory (SRL75) Field Experiment

The 1975 Savannah River Laboratory (SRL75) field experiment released a tracer on December

10, 1975 and measured it at receptors located approximately 100 km downwind from the

tracer release site. The fitted Gaussian plume model evaluation approach was used to evaluate

numerous CALPUFF sensitivity tests. Several CALMET sensitivity tests were run to provide

meteorological inputs to CALPUFF that varied whether MM5 data was used or not and how

meteorological observations were used (surface and upper

‐ air, surface only or no

observations). As in the GP80 sensitivity tests, three dispersion options were used in CALPUFF

(CAL, AER and PG). In addition, CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests were performed using MM5

output at 36, 12 and 4 km resolution.

Because of the long time integrated sampling period used in the SRL75 experiment, the plume

arrival, departure and residence statistics were not available and only the fitted Gaussian plume

statistics along the 100 km receptor arc were used in the evaluation. The key findings of the

SRL75 CALPUFF evaluation are as follows:

• The maximum plume centerline concentrations from the fitted Gaussian plume to the

observed tracer concentrations is approximately half the maximum observed tracer

concentration at any monitor along the 100 km receptor arc. As a plume centerline

concentration in a Gaussian plume represents the maximum concentration, this indicates

that the fitted Gaussian plume is a very poor fit to the observations. Thus, the plume

centerline and plume width statistics that depend on the fitted Gaussian plume are a poor

indication of model performance for the SRL75 experiment. The observed fitted Gaussian

plume statistics were taken from the 1998 EPA study (EPA, 1998a).

• Given that there are many more (~5 times) CALPUFF receptors along the 100 km receptor

arc than monitoring sites where the tracer was observed, the predicted maximum

concentration along the arc is expected to be greater than the observed maximum

concentration. Such is the case with the CALPUFF/MMIF runs, but is not always the case

for the CALMET/CALPUFF sensitivity tests using no MM5 data.

• The CALPUFF plume centerline is offset from the observed plume centerline by 8 to 20

degrees. The largest angular offset occurs (17

‐ 20 degrees) when CALMET is run with no

MM5 data. When MM5 data is used with the surface and upper

‐ air observations the

CALPUFF angular offset is essentially unchanged (18

‐ 19 degrees) and the removal of the

upper

‐ air observations also has little effect on the plume centerline angular offset.

However, when only MM5 data are used, in either in CALMET (11

‐ 12 degrees) or MMIF (9

‐

10 degrees), the CALPUFF plume centerline offset is improved.12 The main conclusion of the SRL75 CALPUFF evaluation is that the fitted Gaussian plume

evaluation approach can be a poor and misleading indicator of LRT dispersion model

performance. In fact, the whole concept of a well

‐ defined Gaussian plume at far downwind

distances (e.g., > 50 km) is questionable since wind variations and shear can destroy the

Gaussian distribution. Thus, we recommend that future studies no longer use the fitted

Gaussian plume evaluation methodology for evaluating LRT dispersion models and adopt

alternate evaluation approaches that are free from a priori assumption regarding the

distribution of the observed tracer concentrations.

Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX)

The Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) performed five tracer releases from either

Dayton, Ohio or Sudbury, Ontario with tracer concentrations measured at hundreds of

monitoring sites deployed in the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada out to distances of

1000 km downwind of the release sites. Numerous CALPUFF sensitivity tests were performed

for the third (CTEX3) and fifth (CTEX5) CAPTEX tracer releases from, respectively, Dayton and

Sudbury. The performance of the six LRT models was also intercompared using the CTEX3 and

CTEX5 field experiments.

CAPTEX Meteorological Modeling

MM5 meteorological modeling was conducted for the CTEX3 and CTEX5 periods using modeling

approaches prevalent in the 1980’s (e.g., one 80 km grid with 16 vertical layers) that was

sequentially updated to use a more current MM5 modeling approach (e.g., 108/36/12/4 km

nested grids with 43 vertical layers). The MM5 experiments also employed various levels of

four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) from none (i.e., forecast mode) to increasing

aggressive use of FDDA.

CALMET sensitivity tests were conducted using 80, 36 and 12 km MM5 data as input and using

CALMET grid resolutions of 18, 12 and 4 km. For each MM5 and CALMET grid resolution

combination, additional CALMET sensitivity tests were performed to investigate the effects of

different options for blending the meteorological observations into the CALMET STEP1 wind

fields using the STEP2 objective analysis (OA) procedures to produce the wind field that is

provided as input to CALPUFF:

• A

– RMAX1/RMAX2

= 500/1000

• B

– RMAX1/RMAX2

= 100/200

• C

– RMAX1/RMAX2

= 10/100

• D

– no meteorological observations (NOOBS

= 2)

Wind fields estimated by the MM5 and CALMET CTEX3 and CTEX5 sensitivity tests were paired

with surface wind observations in space and time, then aggregated by day and then aggregated

over the modeling period. The surface wind comparison is not an independent evaluation since

many of the surface wind observations in the evaluation database are also provided as input to

CALMET. Since the CALMET STEP2 OA procedure is designed to make the CALMET winds at the

monitoring sites better match the observed values, one would expect CALMET simulations

using observations to perform better than those that do not. However, as EPA points out in

their 2009 IWAQM reassessment report, CALMET’s OA procedure can also produce

discontinuities and artifacts in the wind fields resulting in a degradation of the wind fields even

though they may match the observed winds better at the locations of the observations (EPA,13 2009a). The key findings from the CTEX5 MM5 and CALMET meteorological evaluation are as

follows:

• The MM5 wind speed, and especially wind direction, model performance is better when

FDDA is used then when FDDA is not used.

• The “A” and “B” series of CALMET simulations produce wind fields least similar to the

MM5 simulation used as input, which is not surprising since CALMET by design is

modifying the winds at the location of the monitoring sites to better match the

observations.

• CALMET tends to slow down the MM5 wind speeds even when there are no wind

observations used as input (i.e., the “D” series).

• For this period and MM5 model configuration, the MM5 and CALMET wind model

performance is better when 12 km grid resolution is used compared to coarser resolution.

CAPTEX CALPUFF Model Evaluation and Sensitivity Tests

The CALPUFF model was evaluated against tracer observations from the CTEX3 and CTEX5 field

experiments using meteorological inputs from the various CALMET sensitivity tests described

above as well as the MMIF tool applied using the 80, 36 and 12 km MM5 databases. The

CALPUFF configuration was held fixed in all of these sensitivity tests so that the effects of the

meteorological inputs on the CALPUFF tracer model performance could be clearly assessed.

The CALPUFF default model options were assumed for most CALPUFF inputs. One exception

was for puff splitting where more aggressive vertical puff splitting was allowed to occur

throughout the day, rather than the default where vertical puff splitting is only allowed to occur

once per day.

The ATMES

‐ II statistical model evaluation approach was used to evaluate CALPUFF for the

CAPTEX field experiments. Twelve separate statistical performance metrics were used to

evaluate various aspects of the CALPUFF’s ability to reproduce the observed tracer

concentrations in the two CAPTEX experiments. Below we present the results of the RANK

performance statistic that is a composite statistic that represents four aspects of model

performance: correlation, bias, spatial and cumulative distribution. Our analysis of all twelve

ATMES

‐ II statistics has found that the RANK statistic usually provides a reasonable assessment

of the overall performance of dispersion models tracer test evaluations. However, we have

also found situations where the RANK statistic can provide misleading indications of the

performance of dispersion models and recommend that all model performance attributes be

examined to confirm that the RANK metric is providing a valid ranking of the dispersion model

performance.

CTEX3 CALPUFF Model Evaluation

Figure ES

‐ 1 summarizes the RANK model performance statistics for the CALPUFF sensitivity

simulations that used the 12 km MM5 data as input. Using a 4 km CALMET grid resolution, the

EXP6B (RMAX1/RMAX2

= 100/200) has the lowest rank of the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity

tests. Of the CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the 12 km MM5 data as input, the CALPUFF/MMIF

(12KM_MMIF) sensitivity test has the highest RANK statistic (1.43) followed closely by EXP4A

(1.40; 12 km CALMET and 500/1000), EXP6C (1.38; 4 km CALMET and 10/500) with the lowest14 RANK statistic (1.22) exhibited by EXP4B (12 km CALMET and 100/200) and EXP6B (4 km

CALMET and 100/200).

Figure ES

‐ 1. RANK performance statistics for CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests that used 12 km

MM5 as input to CALMET or MMIF.

Figure ES

‐ 2 compares the RANK model performance statistics for “B” (RMAX1/RMAX2

=

100/200) and “D” (no observations) series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests using different

CALMET/MM5 grid resolutions of 18/80 (BASEB), 12/80 (EXP1), 12/36 (EXP3), 12/12 (EXP4)

4/36 (EXP5) and 4/12 (EXP6) along with the CALPUFF/MMIF runs using 36 and 12 km MM5

data. The CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests using no observations (“D” series) generally have a

higher rank metric than when meteorological observations are used with CALPUFF (“B” series).

The CALMET/MMIF sensitivity test using 36 and 12 km MM5 data are the configurations with

the highest RANK metric.The CALPUFF/MMIF show a strong relationship between observed and

predicted winds than the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests, which had no to slightly negative

correlations with the tracer observations. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2 1.4 1.6EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KM_MMIF 

## Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^215 Figure ES

‐ 2. RANK performance statistics for CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests that used

RMAX1/RMAX2

= 100/200 (“B” series) or no observations in CALMET (“D” series) and various

CALMET/MM5 grid resolutions plus CALMET/MMIF using 36 and 12 km MM5 data.

Table ES

‐ 3 ranks all of the CALPUFF CTEX3 sensitivity tests using the RANK statistics. It is

interesting to note that the EXP3A and EXP4A CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity test that uses the,

respectively, 36 km and 12 km MM5 data with 12 km CALMET grid resolution and

RMAX1/RMAX2 values of 500/1000 have a rank metric that is third highest, but the same model

configuration with alternative RMAX1/RMAX2 values of 10/100 (EXP3C and EXP4C) degrades

the model performance of the CALPUFF configuration according to the RANK statistic, with a

RANK value of 1.12. This is largely due to decreases in the FMS and KS metrics.

Note that the finding that CALPUFF/CALMET model performance using CALMET wind fields

based on setting RMAX1/RMAX2

= 100/200 (i.e., the “B” series) produces worse CALPUFF

model performance for simulating the observed atmospheric tracer concentrations is in

contrast to the CALMET surface wind field comparison that found the “B” series most closely

matched observations at surface meteorological stations. Since the CALPUFF tracer evaluation

is an independent evaluation of the CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system, whereas the CALMET

surface wind evaluation is not, the CALPUFF tracer evaluation may be a better indication of the

best performing CALMET configuration. The CALMET “B” series approach for blending the wind

observations in the wind fields may just be the best approach for getting the CALMET winds to

match the observations at the monitoring sites, but possibly at the expense of degrading the

wind fields away from the monitoring sites resulting in worse overall depiction of transport

conditions.

Table ES

‐ 3. Final Rankings of CALPUFF CTEX3 Sensitivity Tests using the RANK model

performance statistics. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KM_MMIF36KM_MMIF 

## Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^216 Ranking Sensitivity

Test RANK

Statistics MM5

(km) CALGRID

(km) RMAX1/RMAX2 Met

Obs

1 36KM_MMIF 1.610 36

‐‐  ‐‐  ‐‐

2 12KM_MMIF 1.430 12

‐‐  ‐‐  ‐‐

3 EXP3A 1.400 36 12 500/1000 Yes

4 EXP4A 1.400 12 12 500/1000 Yes

5 EXP5C 1.380 36 4 10/100 Yes

6 EXP6C 1.380 12 4 10/100 Yes

7 EXP1C 1.340 36 18 10/100 Yes

8 EXP5A 1.340 36 4 500/1000 Yes

9 EXP6A 1.340 12 4 500/1000 Yes

10 EXP5D 1.310 36 4

‐‐ No

11 EXP6D 1.310 12 4

‐‐ No

12 EXP1B 1.300 36 18 100/200 Yes

13 EXP3D 1.300 36 12

‐‐ No

14 EXP4D 1.300 12 12

‐‐ No

15 BASEA 1.290 80 18 500/1000 Yes

16 EXP1D 1.290 36 18

‐‐ No

17 EXP1A 1.280 36 18 500/1000 Yes

18 EXP3B 1.220 36 12 100/200 Yes

19 EXP5B 1.220 36 4 100/200 Yes

20 EXP4B 1.220 12 12 100/200 Yes

21 EXP6B 1.220 12 4 100/200 Yes

22 BASEC 1.170 80 18 10/100 Yes

23 BASEB 1.160 80 18 100/200 Yes

24 EXP3C 1.120 36 12 10/100 Yes

25 EXP4C 1.120 12 12 10/200 Yes

CTEX5 CALPUFF Model Evaluation

Figure ES

‐ 3 summarizes the RANK model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF

sensitivity simulations that used the 12 km MM5 data as input to CALMET and the 12 and 4 km

MM5 data as input to MMIF.17 Figure ES

‐ 3. RANK performance statistics for CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests that used 12 km

MM5 as input to CALMET or MMIF.

Table ES

‐ 4 ranks the model performance of the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the RANK

composite statistic. The 12, 36 and 80 km CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests have the lowest

RANK values in the 1.28 to 1.42 range.

Table ES

‐ 4. Final Rankings of CALPUFF CTEX5 Sensitivity Tests using the RANK model

performance statistic.

Ranking Sensitivity

Test RANK

Statistics MM5

(km) CALGRID

(km) RMAX1/RMAX2 Met

Obs

1 EXP6C 2.19 12 4 10/100 Yes

2 EXP5D 2.10 36 4

‐‐ No

3 BASEA 2.06 80 18 500/1000 Yes

4 BASEC 2.05 80 18 10/100 Yes

5 EXP5A 2.03 36 4 500/1000 Yes

6 EXP6A 2.02 12 4 500/1000 Yes

7 EXP4D 2.00 12 12

‐‐ No

8 EXP6D 1.99 12 4

‐‐ No

9 EXP4A 1.98 12 12 500/1000 Yes

10 EXP6B 1.94 12 4 100/200 Yes

11 EXP5B 1.89 36 4 100/200 Yes

12 EXP4B 1.86 12 12 100/200 Yes

13 BASEB 1.82 80 18 100/200 Yes

14 EXP5C 1.80 36 4 10/100 Yes

0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6

2 2.4EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KM_MMIF12KM_MMIF 

# Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^218 15 BASED 1.79 80 18

‐‐ No

16 EXP3A 1.79 36 12 10/100 Yes

17 EXP3B 1.79 36 12 100/200 Yes

18 EXP3C 1.79 36 12 500/1000 Yes

19 EXP3D 1.79 36 12

‐‐ No

20 4KM_MMIF 1.78 4

‐‐  ‐‐ No

21 EXP4C 1.72 12 12 10/100 Yes

22 36KM_MMIF 1.42 36

‐‐  ‐‐ No

23 80KM_MMIF 1.42 80

‐‐  ‐‐ No

24 12KM_MMIF 1.28 12

‐‐  ‐‐ No

Conclusions of the CAPTEX CALPUFF Tracer Sensitivity Tests

There are some differences and similarities in CALPUFF’s ability to simulate the observed tracer

concentrations in the CTEX3 and CTEX5 field experiments. The overall conclusions of the

evaluation of the CALPUFF model using the CAPTEX tracer test field experiment data can be

summarized as follows:

• There is a noticeable variability in the CALPUFF model performance depending on the

selected input options to CALMET.

‐ By varying CALMET inputs and options through their range of plausibility, CALPUFF

can produce a wide range of concentrations estimates.

• Regarding the effects of the RMAX1/RMAX2 parameters on CALPUFF/CALMET model

performance, the “A” series (500/1000) performed best for CTEX3 but the “C” series

(10/100) performed best for CTEX5 with both CTEX3 and CTEX5 agreeing that the “B”

series (100/200) is the worst performing setting for RMAX1/RMAX2.

‐ This is in contrast to the CALMET wind evaluation that found the “B” series was the

CALMET configuration that most closely matched observed surface winds.

‐ The CALMET wind evaluation was not an independent evaluation since some of the

wind observations used in the model evaluation database were also used as input to

CALMET.

Evaluation of Six LRT Dispersion Models using the CTEX3 Database

Six LRT dispersions models were applied for the CTEX3 experiment using common

meteorological inputs based solely on MM5. Figure ES

‐ 4 displays the RANK model performance

statistic for the six LRT dispersion models. The RANK statistical performance metric was

proposed by Draxler (2001) as a single model performance metric that equally ranks the

combination of performance metrics for correlation (PCC or R 2 ), bias (FB), spatial analysis (FMS)

and unpaired distribution comparisons (KS). The RANK metrics ranges from 0.0 to 4.0 with a

perfect model receiving a score of 4.0.Figure E S

Table ES

‐

statistics

statistic.

perform a

statistics

compar e S

‐ 4. RANK s

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‐ 5

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‐ 4) are e ase 3.

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el

c e20 For the CTEX3 experiment, the average rankings across the 11 statistics is nearly identical to the

rankings produced by the RANK integrated statistic that combines the four of the statistics for

correlation (PCC), bias (FB), spatial (FMS) and cumulative distribution (KS) with only HYSPLIT

and CALPUFF exchanging places. This switch was due to CALPUFF having lower scores in the

FA2 and FA5 metrics compared to HYSPLIT. If not for this, the average rank across all 11 metrics

would have been the same as Draxler’s RANK score. However, the analyst should use discretion

in relying too heavily upon RANK score without consideration to which performance metrics are

important measures for the particular evaluation goals. For example, if performance goals are

not concerned with a model’s ability to perform well in space and time, then reliance upon

spatial statistics, such as the FMS, in the composite RANK value may not be appropriate.

Table ES

‐ 5. Summary of model ranking for the CTEX3 using the ATMES

‐ II statistical

performance metrics and comparing their average rankings to the RANK metric.

Statistic 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th 6 th

FMS CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT CALPUFF FLEXPAR T CALGRID

FAR FLEXPAR T CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF HYSPLIT CALGRID

POD CAMx FLEXPAR T SCIPUFF HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID

TS FLEXPAR T CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID

FOEX HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF CALGRID FLEXPAR T

FA2 CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T HYSPLIT CALGRID CALPUFF

FA5 CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID

NMSE FLEXPAR T CAMx CALPUFF SCIPUFF CALGRID HYSPLIT

PCC or R CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF CALGRID FLEXPAR T HYSPLIT

FB FLEXPAR T CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF CALGRID HYSPLIT

KS HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF FLEXPAR T CALGRID

Avg. Ranking CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID

Avg. Score 1.55 2.72 3.0 4.0 4.27 5.55

RANK Ranking CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T CALPUFF HYSPLIT CALGRID

RANK 1.91 1.71 1.44 1.43 1.25 0.98Evaluati o

Figure E S

CTEX5 fi e

Figure E S

Table ES

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n d22 HYSPLIT). Both approaches show CAMx and HYSPLIT as the highest ranking models for CTEX5

with rankings that are fairly close to each other, however after that the two ranking techniques

come to very different conclusions regarding the ability of the models to simulate the observed

tracer concentrations for the CTEX5 field experiment.

The most noticeable feature of the RANK metric for ranking models in CTEX5 is the third highest

ranking model using RANK, CALGRID (1.57). CALGRID ranks as the worst or second worst

performing model in 9 of the 11 performance statistics, so is one of the worst performing

model 82% of the time and has an average ranking of 5 th best model out of the 6 LRT dispersion

models. In examining the contribution to the RANK metric for CALGRID, there is not a

consistent contribution from all four broad categories to the composite scores (Figure ES

‐ 5). As

noted in Table ES

‐ 2, the RANK score is defined by the contribution of the four of the 11

statistics that represent measures of correlation/scatter (R 2 ), bias (FB), spatial (FMS) and

cumulative distribution (KS):



# ( ) ( ) 100 / 1 100 / 2 / 1 2 

### KS FMS FB R RANK

− + +

− + =

The majority of CALGRID’s 1.57 RANK score comes from the fractional bias (FB) and

Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov (KS) performance statistics with little or no contributions from the

correlation (R 2 ) or spatial (FMS) statistics. As shown in Table ES

‐ 6, CALGRID performs very

poorly for the FOEX and FA2/FA5 statistics due to a large underestimation bias. The FB

component to the RANK composite score for CALGRID is one of the highest among the six

models in this study, yet the underlying statistics indicate both marginal spatial skill and a large

degree of under

‐ prediction (likely due to the spatial skill of the model).

The current form of the RANK score uses the absolute value of the fractional bias. This

approach weights underestimation equally to overestimation. However, in a regulatory

context, EPA is most concerned with models not being biased towards under

‐ prediction.

Models can produce seemingly good (low) bias metrics through compensating errors by

averaging over ‐ and under

‐ predictions. The use of an error statistic (e.g., NMSE) instead of a

bias statistic (i.e., FB) in the RANK composite metrics would alleviate this problem.

Adaptation of RANK score for regulatory use will require refinement of the individual

components to insure that this situation does not develop and to insure that the regulatory

requirement of bias be accounted for when weighting the individual statistical measures to

produce a composite score.23 Table ES

‐ 6. Summary of model rankings using the statistical performance metrics and

comparison with the RANK metric.

Statistic 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th 6 th

FMS SCIPUFF CAMx HYSPLIT CALPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID

FAR FLEXPART HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALGRID CALPUFF

POD SCIPUFF CAMx HYSPLIT FLEXPART CALPUFF CALGRID

TS FLEXPART HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF CALGRID

FOEX CALPUFF CAMx HYSPLIT CALGRID SCIPUFF FLEXPART

FA2 HYSPLIT CAMx CALPUFF SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID

FA5 HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID

NMSE CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPART HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID

PCC or R HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID CALPUFF

FB CAMx CALGRID FLEXPART SCIPUFF HYSPLIT CALPUFF

KS HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID CAMx FLEXPART SCIPUFF

Avg.

Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALPUFF CALGRID

Avg. Score 2.20 2.4 3.4 3.8 4.3 5.0

RANK

Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT CALGRID SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALPUFF

RANK 1.91 1.80 1.57 1.53 1.45 1.28

European Tracer Experiment (ETEX)

The European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) was conducted in 1994 with two tracer releases from

northwest France that was measured at 168 samplers located in 17 European countries. Five

LRT dispersion models were evaluated for the first (October 23, 1994) ETEX tracer release

period (CALPUFF, SCICHEM, HYSPLIT, FLEXPART and CAMx). All five LRT dispersion models were

exercised using a common 36 km MM5 database for their meteorological inputs. For CALPUFF,

the MMIF tool was used to process the MM5 data. Default model options were mostly selected

for the LRT dispersion models. An exception to this is that for CALPUFF puff splitting was

allowed to occur throughout the day, instead of once per day which is the default setting. The

MM5 simulation was evaluated using surface meteorological variables. The MM5 performance

did not always meet the model performance benchmarks and exhibited a wind speed and

temperature underestimation bias. However, since all five LRT dispersion models used the

same MM5 fields, this did not detract from the LRT model performance intercomparison. The

ATMES

‐ II model evaluation approach was used in the evaluation that calculated 12 model

performance statistics of spatial, scatter, bias, correlation and cumulative distribution.

ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Performance Evaluation

Figure ES

‐ 6 displays the ranking of the five LRT dispersion models using the RANK model

performance statistic with Table ES

‐ 7 summarizing the rankings for the other 11 ATMES

‐ II

performance statistics. Depending on the statistical metric, three different models were ranked

as the best performing model for a particular statistic with CAMx being ranked first most of the

time (64%) and HYSPLIT ranked first second most (27%). In order to come up with an overall

rank across all eleven statistics we average the modeled ranking order to come up with an

average ranking that listed CAMx first, HYSPLIT second, SCIPUFF third, FLEXPART fourth and

CALPUFF the fifth. This is the same ranking as produced by the RANK integrated statistics that

combines the four statistics for correlation (PCC), bias (FB), spatial (FMS) and cumulative

distribution (KS), giving credence that the RANK statistic is a potentially useful performance24 statistic for indicating overall model performance of a LRT dispersion model for the ETEX

evaluation.

Figure ES

‐ 6. RANK statistical performance metric for the five LRT models and the ETEX tracer

field experiment.

Table ES

‐ 7. Summary of ETEX model ranking using the eleven ATMES

‐ II statistical performance

metrics and their average rankings that are compared against the rankings by the RANK

composite model performance metric.

Statistic 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th

FMS CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FAR HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF

POD CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

TS CAMx HYSPLIT SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FOEX CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FA2 CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FA5 CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

NMSE HYSPLIT CAMx CALPUFF FLEXPAR T SCIPUFF

PCC or R SCIPUFF HYSPLIT CAMx FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FB HYSPLIT CAMx CALPUFF FLEXPAR T SCIPUFF

KS CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

Avg. Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

Avg. Score 1.55 2.27 2.73 3.82 4.64

RANK Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

RANK Score 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.0 0.7

Spatial Displays of Model Performance

Figures ES

‐ 7 and ES

‐ 8 display the spatial distributions of the predicted and observed tracer

concentrations 36 and 60 hours after the beginning of the ETEX tracer release. CALPUFF

advects the tracer too far north keeping a circular Gaussian plume distribution and fails to 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4CALPUFFSCIPUFFHYSPLITFLEXPARTCAMx 

## Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^225 reproduce the northwest to southeast diagonal orientation of the observed tracer cloud. The

other four LRT dispersion models do a much better job in reproducing the observed tracer

cloud spatial distribution. SCIPUFF tends to overestimate the tracer cloud extent and surface

concentrations. FLEXPART, on the other hand, underestimates the observed tracer cloud

spatial extent and CAMx and HYSPLIT do the best job overall in reproducing the spatial extent

of the observed tracer cloud.

Figure ES

‐ 7. Comparison of spatial distribution of the ETEX tracer concentrations 36 hours

after release for the observed (top left), CALPUFF (top right), SCIPUFF (middle left), FLEXPART

(middle right), HYSPLIT (bottom left) and CAMx (bottom right).26 Figure ES

‐ 8. Comparison of spatial distribution of the ETEX tracer concentrations 60 hours

after release for the observed (top left), CALPUFF (top right), SCIPUFF (middle left), FLEXPART

(middle right), HYSPLIT (bottom left) and CAMx (bottom right).27 ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Sensitivity Tests

Sensitivity tests were conducted using the CAMx, CALPUFF and HYSPLIT models and the ETEX

field study data.

For CAMx, the effects of alternative vertical mixing coefficients (OB70, TKE, ACM2 and CMAQ),

horizontal advection solvers (PPM and Bott) and use of the subgrid

‐ scale Plume

‐ in

‐ Grid (PiG)

module were evaluated. The key findings from the CAMx ETEX sensitivity tests were as follows:

• The vertical mixing parameter had the biggest effect on model performance, with the

CMAQ vertical diffusion coefficients producing the best performing CAMx simulations.

• The horizontal advection solver had a much smaller effect on CAMx model performance

with the PPM algorithm performing slightly better than Bott.

• The use of no PiG module produced slightly better performance than use of the PiG

module.

• The default CAMx configuration used in the ETEX evaluation (CMAQ/PPM/No PiG) was the

best performing CAMx sensitivity test.

CALPUFF sensitivity tests were performed to examine the effects of puff splitting on the

CALPUFF model performance for the ETEX field experiment. When EPA listed CALPUFF as the

EPA

‐ recommended LRT dispersion model in 2003, they noted that the implementation of puff

splitting likely will extend the models applicability beyond 300 km downwind (EPA, 2003). Since

many of the ETEX monitoring sites are sited further than 300 km downwind from the release,

one potential explanation for the poor CALPUFF model performance is that it is being applied

farther downwind than the model is applicable for. Figure ES

‐ 9 displays a time series of the

Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) performance statistic for the five LRT dispersion models.

Although CALPUFF performs reasonably well within the first 12 hours of the tracer release, its

performance quickly degrades even within 300 km of the source. Thus, CALPUFF’s poor model

performance is not due to applying the model to downwind distances beyond its applicability.

Eight CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity tests were conducted ranging from no puff splitting to

aggressive puff splitting for all hours of the day and relaxing some of the puff splitting initiation

criteria so that even more puff splitting can occur. The CALPUFF ETEX model performance using

no puff splitting and all hour puff splitting was very similar, thus we saw no evidence to support

EPA’s 2003 statements that puff splitting may extend the downwind applicability of the model.

In fact, when some of the puff splitting initiation criteria were relaxed to allow more puff

splitting, the CALUFF performance degraded.28 Figure ES

‐ 9. Figure of Merit (FMS) spatial model performance statistics as a function of time

at three hour increments since the beginning of the tracer release.

The HYSPLIT LRT model was unique among the five LRT dispersion models examined in that it

can be run in a particle mode, a Gaussian puff mode or hybrid particle/puff and puff/particle

modes. The default configuration used in the HYSPLIT simulations presented previously was

the three

‐ dimensional particle mode. Nine HYSPLIT sensitivity tests were performed using

different particle and puff formulation combinations. The RANK scores for the HYSPLIT ETEX

sensitivity simulations ranged from 1.01 to 2.09, with the fully puff formulation ranked the

lowest and hybrid puff/particle combinations ranked highest.

Conclusions of the ETEX LRT Dispersion Model Evaluation

Five LRT dispersion models were evaluated using the 1994 ETEX tracer test field experiment

data. The CAMx, HYSPLIT and SCIPUFF models were the highest ranked LRT dispersions models,

with CAMx performing slightly better than the other two models. The reasons for the poor

performance of CALPUFF appear to be due to its inability to adequately treat horizontal and

vertical wind shear. The CALPUFF Gaussian puff formulation retains a well

‐ mixed circular puff

despite the presence of wind variations across the puff that would advect tracer concentrations

in different directions. Because the puff can only be transported by one wind, CALPUFF is

unable to adequately treat such wind variations across the puff. The use of puff splitting, which

EPA postulated in 2003 may extend the downwind applicability of the model, failed to have any

significant effect on CALPUFF model performance. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 CAMx

CALPUFF

FLEXPART

HYSPLIT

SCIPUFF29 CONCLUSIONS OF LRT DISPERSION MODEL TRACER TEST EVALUATION

The following are some of the key conclusions of the LRT dispersion model tracer test field

experiment evaluation.

CALPUFF/CALMET Concentration Predictions are Highly Variable : Use of alternative CALMET

input options within their range of reasonableness can produce wide variations in the CALPUFF

concentration predictions. Given the regulatory use of CALPUFF, this result points toward the

need to have a standard set of recommended CALMET settings for regulatory application of

CALPUFF to assure consistency and eliminate the potential of selecting CALMET options to

obtain a desired outcome in CALPUFF. No one CALMET configuration consistently produced the

best CALPUFF model performance, although use of MM5 data with CALMET did tend to

improve CALPUFF model performance with 36 and 12 km MM5 data being better than 80 km

MM5 data.

Comparison of Current CALPUFF Model Performance with Previous Studies: The comparison of

the model performance for current version of CALPUFF with past CALPUFF evaluations from the

1998 EPA study (EPA, 1998a) using the GP80 and SRL75 tracer study field experiments was

mixed. For the GP80 100 km receptor arc, the current and past CALPUFF model performance

evaluations were consistent with CALPUFF tending to overestimate the plume maximum

concentrations and underestimate plume horizontal dispersion. The current version of

CALPUFF had difficulty in reproducing the good performance of the past CALPUFF application in

estimating the tracer residence time on the GP80 600 km receptor arc. Only by invoking the

CALPUFF slug option, as used in the 1998 EPA study, was CALPUFF/CALMET able to reproduce

the tracer residence time on the 600 km receptor arc. As the slug option is for near

‐ source

modeling and is a very non

‐ standard option for LRT dispersion modeling, this result questions

the validity of the 1998 CALPUFF evaluation study as applied for CALPUFF LRT modeling. The

CALPUFF/MMIF was less sensitive to the slug option and more sensitive to puff splitting than

CALPUFF/CALMET. For consistency, the current and EPA 1998 study CALPUFF evaluation

approach both used the fitted Gaussian plume model evaluation methodology, along with

angular plume centerline offset and tracer receptor arc timing statistics. The fitted Gaussian

plume evaluation approach assumes that the observed and predicted concentration along a

receptor arc has a Gaussian distribution. At longer downwind distances such an assumption

may not be valid. For the CALPUFF evaluation using the SRL75 tracer field experiment, there

was a very poor fit of the Gaussian plume to the observations resulting in some model

performance statics that could be misleading. We do not recommend using the fitted Gaussian

plume evaluation approach in future studies and instead recommend using approaches like the

ATMES

‐ II statistical evaluation approach that is free from any a priori assumption regarding the

observed tracer distributions.

EPA

‐ FLM Recommended CALMET Settings from the 2009 Clarification Memorandum : The EPA

‐

FLM recommended CALMET settings in the 2009 Clarification Memorandum (EPA, 2009b)

produces wind field estimates closest to surface wind observations based on the CAPTEX

CALMET modeling. However, when used as input into CALPUFF, the EPA

‐ FLM recommended

CALMET settings produced one of the poorer performing CALPUFF/CALMET configurations

when comparing CALPUFF predictions against the observed atmospheric tracer concentrations.

Given that the CALMET wind evaluation is not an independent evaluation because some of the

wind observations used in the evaluation database are also input into CALMET, the CALPUFF30 tracer evaluation bears more weight. Other aspects of the EPA

‐ FLM recommended settings

generally produced better CALPUFF tracer model performance including use of prognostic

meteorological data as input to CALPUFF. The CALPUFF evaluation also found better CALPUFF

performance when 12 km grid resolution is used in MM5 or CALMET as opposed to 80 or 36

km.

CALPUFF Model Performance using CALMET versus MMIF : The CALPUFF tracer model

performance using meteorological inputs based on the MMIF tool versus CALMET was mixed.

The variations of the CALPUFF model predictions using MMIF were much less than when

CALMET was used and the CALPUFF/MMIF model performance was usually within the range of

the performance exhibited by CALPUFF/CALMET. Specific examples from the tracer tests are as

follows:

• For the GP80 100 km receptor arc, the CALPUFF/MMIF exhibited better fitted plume

observed tracer model performance statistics than all of the CALPUFF/CALMET

configurations except when CALMET was run using MM5 and surface meteorological

observations but no upper

‐ air meteorological observations.

• CALPUFF/CALMET using no MM5 data and just meteorological observations exhibited the

best plume centerline location on the GP80 100 km receptor arc with CALPUFF/CALMET

using just MM5 data and no observations and CALMET/MMIF exhibiting the worst plume

centerline location.

• For the GP80 600 km receptor arc, the CALPUFF/MMIF fitted plume model performance

statistics are in the middle of the performance statistics for the CALPUFF/CALMET

configurations.

• The slug option was needed for CALPUFF/CALMET to produce good 600 km receptor arc

tracer residence time statistics but had little effect on CALPUFF/MMIF. However, use of

puff splitting greatly improved the CALPUFF/MMIF tracer residence time statistics.

• Of all the CALPUFF sensitivity tests examined, CALPUFF/MMIF using the slug option and

puff splitting produced the best CALPUFF fitted plume tracer model performance statistics

for the GP80 600 km receptor arc.

• In an opposite fashion to the GP80 100 km receptor arc, for the SRL75 100 km receptor arc

the best plume centerline offset was achieved when CALPUFF was run with just MM5 data

and no meteorological observations (either with CALMET or MMIF) with performance

degraded when meteorological observations are used with CALMET.

• The CALPUFF model performance using the MMIF tool and 36 and 12 km MM5 data

performed better than all of the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests for the CAPTEX CTEX3

experiment. However, the CALPUFF/MMIF using 36 and 12 km MM5 data performed

worse than all of the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests for the CAPTEX CTEX5 experiment.

Comparison of Model Performance of LRT Dispersion Models: Six LRT dispersion modeled were

evaluated using the CAPTEX Release 3 and 5 tracer database and five LRT dispersion models

were evaluated using the ETEX tracer test field experiment. In each case the same MM5

meteorological data were used as input into all of the dispersion models, although different

MM5 configuration options were selected for each tracer experiement.31 The CAMx and CALGRID Eulerian photochemical grid models, FLEXPART Lagrangian particle

model, HYSPLIT Lagrangian particle, puff and particle/puff hybrid model and CALPUFF and

SCIPUFF Gaussian puff models were evaluated. For all three tracer experiments (CTEX3, CTEX5

and ETEX), the CAMx model consistently ranked highest when looking across all of the model

performance statistics or when using the RANK composite performance statistic. For the CTEX3

field experiment, the RANK composite performance statistic gave consistent rankings of model

performance with the suite of statistical metrics with CAMx being the higheset RANK score

(1.91) followed by SCICHEM (1.71).

The rankings of the models using all of the statistics versus the RANK composite statistic were

inconsistent for the CTEX5 experiment. Both approaches showed CAMx and HYSPLIT were the

highest ranking LRT dispersion model for the CTEX5 field experiment. However, the RANK

statistic ranked CALGRID as the 3 rd best performing model, whereas when looking at all the

performance statistics it was the worst performing model because it exhibited a large spread

underestimation bias, had no correlation with the observations and little skill in reproducing

the spatial distribution of the observed tracer. The CTEX5 LRT model evaluation points out the

need to examine all performance statistics and not rely solely on the RANK composite statistic.

It also points out the need to define a RANK

‐ type composite statistic that focuses on the

regulatory application of LRT dispersion models where an underestimation bias is undesirable.

Of the three top performing LRT dispersion models, CAMx had the highest RANK composite

statistic and scored the highest for most (64%) of the other ATMES

‐ II statistical model

performance metrics, with HYSPLIT scoring the highest for 27% of the metrics. Additional

findings of the ETEX tracer test evaluation are as follows:

• The model performance rankings were preserved closer to the source (e.g., within 300 km)

as well as further downwind.

• CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity tests had little effect on CALPUFF model performance.

• CAMx vertical mixing and horizontal advection solver sensitivity tests found that use of the

MM5CAMx CMAQ

‐ like vertical mixing diffusion coefficients and the PPM advection solver

produced the best tracer test model performance. Similar results were seen in the CTEX3

and CTEX5 sensitivity modeling.

• HYSPLIT sensitivity tests using solely particle, solely puff and hybrid particle/puff and

puff/particle combinations found that the hybrid configurations performed best and the

puff configuration performed worst, with the CTEX3 and CTEX5 sensitivity test producing

similar results.1 

## 1.0 INTRODUCTION

Dispersion models, such as the Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST; EPA, 1995) or

American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model

(AERMOD; EPA, 2004; 2009c) typically assume steady

‐ state, horizontally homogeneous wind

fields instantaneously over the entire modeling domain and are usually limited to distances of

less than 50 kilometers from a source. However, dispersion model applications of distances of

hundreds of kilometers from a source require other models or modeling systems. At these

distances, the transport times are sufficiently long that the mean wind fields cannot be

considered steady

‐ state or homogeneous. As part of the Prevention of Significant

Deterioration (PSD) program, new sources or proposed modifications to existing sources may

be required to assess the air quality and Air Quality Related Values (AQRVs) impacts at Class I

and sensitive Class II areas that may be far away from the source. AQRVs include visibility and

acid (sulfur and nitrogen) deposition. There are 156 federally mandated Class I areas in the

U.S. that consist of National Parks, Wilderness Areas and Wildlife Refuges that are administered

by Federal Land Managers (FLMs) from the National Park Service (NPS), United States Forest

Service (USFS) and Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), respectively. Thus, non

‐ steady

‐ state Long

Range Transport (LRT) dispersion models are needed to address air quality and AQRVs issues at

distances beyond 50 km from a source.

1.1 BACKGROUND

The Interagency Workgroup on Air Quality Modeling (IWAQM) was formed to provide a focus

for the development of technically sound recommendations regarding assessment of air

pollutant source impacts on Federal Class I areas. Meetings were held with personnel from

interested Federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the USFS,

NPS and FWS. The purpose of these meetings was to review respective modeling programs, to

develop an organizational framework, and to formulate reasonable objectives and plans that

could be presented to management for support and commitment. One objective of the

IWAQM is the recommendation of LRT dispersion models for assessing air quality and AQRVs at

Class I areas.

One such LRT dispersion model is the CALPUFF modeling system (Scire et al., 2000b). The

CALPUFF modeling system consists of several components: (1) CALMET (Scire et al., 2000a), a

meteorological preprocessor that can use as input surface, upper air, and/or on

‐ site

meteorological observations and/or prognostic meteorological model output data to create a

three

‐ dimensional wind field and derive boundary layer parameters based on gridded land use

data; (2) CALPUFF, a Lagrangian puff dispersion model that can simulate the effects of

temporally and spatially varying meteorological conditions on pollutant transport, remove

pollutants through dry and wet deposition processes, and includes limited ability to transform

pollutant species through chemical reactions; and (3) CALPOST, a postprocessor that takes the

hourly estimates from CALPUFF and generates n

‐ hr estimates as well as tables of maximum

values.

In 1998, EPA published the report entitled “A Comparison of CALPUFF Modeling Results to Two

Tracer Field Experiments” (EPA

‐ 454/R

‐ 98

‐ 009) (EPA, 1998a). The 1998 EPA study examined

concentration estimates from the CALPUFF dispersion model that were compared to observed

tracer concentrations from two short term field experiments. The first experiment was at the

Savannah River Laboratory (SRL75) in South Carolina in December 1975 (DOE, 1978) and the

second was the Great Plains experiment (GP80) near Norman, Oklahoma (Ferber et al., 1981) in2 July 1980. Both experiments examined long

‐ range transport of inert tracer materials to

demonstrate the feasibility of using other tracers as alternatives to the more commonly used

sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ). Several tracers were released for a short duration (3

‐ 4 hours) and the

resulting plume concentrations were recorded at an array of monitors downwind from the

source. For the SRL75 field experiment, monitors were located approximately 100 kilometers

from the source. For the Great Plains experiment, arcs of monitors were located 100 and 600

kilometers from the source.

In 1998, IWAQM released their Phase 2 recommendations in a report “Interagency Workgroup

on Air Quality Modeling (IWAQM) Phase 2 Summary Report and Recommendations for

Modeling Long Range Transport Impacts” (EPA, 1998b 7 ). These recommendations included a

screening and refined LRT modeling approach based on the CALPUFF modeling system. The

IWAQM recommendations were based in part on the 1998 EPA tracer test CALPUFF evaluation.

It was IWAQM’s conclusion at the time that it was not possible to prescribe all of the decisions

needed in a CALPUFF/CALMET application: “The control of the CALMET options requires expert

understanding of mesoscale and microscale meteorological effects on meteorological

conditions, and finesse to adjust the available processing controls within CALMET to develop the

desired effects. The IWAQM does not anticipate the lessening in this required expertise in the

future” (EPA, 1998b).

On April 15, 2003, EPA issued a “Revision to the Guideline on Air Quality Models: Adoption of a

Preferred Long Range Transport Model and Other Revisions” in the Federal Register (EPA,

2003 8 ) that adopted the CALPUFF model as the EPA

‐ recommended (Appendix W) model for

assessing the far

‐ field (> 50 km) air quality impacts due to chemically inert pollutants. In 2005,

EPA issued another revision to the air quality modeling guidelines that recommended the

AERMOD steady

‐ state Gaussian plume model be used for near

‐ source air quality issues. Thus,

from 2005 on to present, there are two EPA

‐ recommended models to address air quality issues

due to primary pollutants: AERMOD for near

‐ source (< 50 km) assessments; and CALPUFF for

far

‐ field (> 50 km) assessments.

In 2005, EPA formed a CALPUFF workgroup to help identify issues with the existing 1998

IWAQM guidance. In response to this, EPA initiated reevaluation of the CALPUFF system to

update the 1998 IWAQM Phase 2 Recommendations.

In May 2009, EPA released a draft document entitled the “Reassessment of the Interagency

Workgroup on Air Quality Modeling (IWAQM) Phase 2 Summary Report: Revisions to the Phase

2 Recommendations” (EPA, 2009a). In this document, EPA described the developmental status

of the CALPUFF modeling system. CALPUFF has evolved continuously since the publication of

the original 1998 IWAQM Phase 2 recommendations; however, the status of CALPUFF related

guidance has not kept pace with the developmental process. The May 2009 IWAQM Phase 2

Reassessment Report noted that “The required expertise and collective body of knowledge in

mesoscale meteorological models has never fully emerged from within the dispersion modeling

community to support the necessary expert judgment on selection of CALMET control options”

(EPA, 2009a). In regards to the 1998 IWAQM Phase 2 lack of prescribing recommended

CALMET settings, the May 2009 IWAQM Phase 2 Reassessment Report states: “In a regulatory

context, this situation has often resulted in an ‘anything goes’ process, whereby model control

option selection can be leveraged as an instrument to achieve a desired modeled outcome,

7 http://www.epa.gov/scram001 /7thconf/calpuff/phase2.pdf

8 http://www.federalregister.g ov/articles/2003/04/15/03

‐ 8542/revision

‐ to

‐ the

‐ guideline

‐ on

‐ air

‐ quality

‐ models

‐ adoption

‐ of

‐ a

‐ preferred

‐ long

‐ range

‐ transport

‐ model3 without regard to the scientific legitimacy of the options selected” (EPA, 2009a). The CALPUFF

working group noted that when running CALMET with prognostic meteorological model (e.g.,

WRF and MM5) output as input, the CALMET diagnostic effects and blending of meteorological

observations with the WRF/MM5 output degraded the WRF/MM5 meteorological fields. Thus,

the 2009 IWAQM Phase 2 Reassessment Report recommended CALMET settings with an

objective to try and “pass through” the WRF/MM5 meteorological model output as much as

possible for input into CALPUFF.

However, further testing of CALMET and CALPUFF by EPA’s CALPUFF workgroup found that the

recommended CALMET settings in the May 2009 IWAQM Phase 2 Reassessment Report did not

achieve the intended result to “pass through” the WRF/MM5 meteorological variables as

CALMET still re

‐ diagnosed some and modified other meteorological variables thereby degrading

the WRF/MM5 meteorological fields. Based in part of CALMET evaluations using tracer test

field study databases (presented in Appendix B of this report), EPA determined interim CALMET

settings that produced the best CALMET performance when compared to observed surface

winds and on August 31, 2009 released a Clarification Memorandum “Clarification on EPA

‐ FLM

Recommended Settings for CALMET” (EPA, 2009b) with new recommended settings for

CALMET. In the August 2009 Clarification Memorandum, EPA reiterated the desire to “pass

through” meteorology from the WRF/MM5 prognostic meteorological models to CALPUFF, but

the CALMET model at this time was incapable of achieving that objective.

In the meantime, EPA has developed the Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) software that

where possible directly converts prognostic meteorological output data from the MM5 or WRF

models to the parameters and formats required for direct input into the CALPUFF dispersion

model thereby bypassing CALMET. Version 1.0 of MMIF was developed in June 2009 (Emery

and Brashers, 2009) with versions 2.0 (Brashers and Emery, 2011) and 2.1 (Brashers and Emery,

2012) developed in, respectively, September 2011 and February 2012; we expect that MMIF

Version 2.1 will be publicly released in February 2012. MMIF specifically processes geophysical

and meteorological output files generated by the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) or

the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Advanced Research WRF [ARW] core,

versions 2 and 3) and reformats the MM5/WRF output for input into CALPUFF..

The EPA CALPUFF workgroup has been evaluating CALPUFF using CALMET and MMIF

meteorological drivers using data from several historical tracer field studies. In addition to a

reevaluation of CALPUFF using CALMET and MMIF for the GP80 and SRL75 tracer studies that

were used in the 1998 EPA CALPUF tracer evaluation report (EPA, 1998a), the CALPUFF

workgroup has also evaluated CALPUFF using CALMET and MMIF meteorological drivers along

with 5 other LRT dispersion models for the 1983 Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment

(CAPTEX). CALPUFF, along with four other LRT dispersion models, were also evaluated using

data from the 1994 European Tracer Experiment (ETEX).

1.2 PURPOSE

The purpose of this report is to document the evaluation of the CALPUFF LRT dispersion model

using data from four atmospheric tracer experiment field study databases. This includes the

comparison of the CALPUFF model performance using meteorological inputs based on the

CALMET and MMIF software and comparison of the CALPUFF model performance with other

LRT dispersion models.4 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT

Chapter one provides a background and purpose for the study. In Chapter 2, the four tracer

field study experiments and LRT dispersion models used in the model performance evaluation

are summarized. Chapter 2 also summarizes related previous studies and the approach and

methods for the model performance evaluation of the LRT dispersion models.

Chapters 3, 4, 5 and 6 contain the evaluation of the LRT dispersions models using the GP80,

SRL75, CAPTEX and ETEX tracer study field experiment data. References are provided in

Chapter 7. Appendix A contains an evaluation of the MM5 and CALMET meteorological models

using the CAPTEX Release #5 (CTEX5) database. Appendix B presents the evaluation of the

CALMET meteorological model using the CAPTEX Release #3 (CTEX3) database that was used in

part to formulate the EPA

‐ FLM recommended settings in the 2009 Clarification Memorandum

(EPA, 2009b). Results of the evaluation of six LRT dispersion models using the CAPTEX tracer

field experiments are presented in Appendix C.5 

## 2.0 OVERVIEW OF APPROACH

2.1 SUMMARY OF TRACER TEST FIELD EXPERIMENTS

LRT dispersion models are evaluated using four atmospheric tracer test field studies as follows:

1980 Great Plains : The 1980 Great Plains (GP80) field study released several tracers from

a release site near Norman, Oklahoma in July 1980 and measured the tracers at two arcs

to the northeast at distances of 100 and 600 km (Ferber et al., 1981).

1975 Savannah River Laboratory : The 1975 Savannah River Laboratory (SRL75) study

released tracers from the SRL in South Carolina and measured them at several receptors

approximately 100 km from the release point (DOE, 1978).

1983 Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment : The 1983 Cross Appalachian Tracer

Experiment (CAPTEX) was a series of three

‐ hour tracer released from Dayton, OH and

Sudbury, Canada during September and October, 1983. Sampling was made in a series of

arcs approximately 100 km apart that spanned from 300 to 1,100 km from the Dayton, OH

release site (Ferber et al., 1986).

1994 European Tracer Experiment : The 1994 European Tracer Experiment (ETEX)

consisted of two tracer releases from northwest France in October and November 1994

that was measured at 168 monitoring sites in 17 countries (Von Dop et al., 1998).

2.2 SUMMARY OF LRT DISPERSION MODELS

Up to six LRT dispersion models were evaluated using the tracer test field study data:

CALPUFF 9 : The California Puff (CALPUFF Version 5.8; Scire et al, 2000b) model is a

Lagrangian Gaussian puff model that simulates a continuous plume using overlapping

circular puffs. Included with CALPUFF is the CALMET meteorological processor (Scire et

al., 2000a) that includes a diagnostic wind model (DWM). The EPA has developed a new

Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF; Emery and Brashers, 2009; Brashers and Emery, 2011;

2012) tool that will “pass through” output from the MM5 or WRF prognostic

meteorological models without modifying or rediagnosing the meteorological variables, as

is done in CALMET. A major objective of this study was to compare the CALPUFF model

performance using CALMET and MMIF meteorological drivers.

SCIPUFF 10 : The Second

‐ order Closure Integrated PUFF (SCIPUFF Version 2.303; Sykes et

al., 1998) is a Lagrangian puff dispersion model using Gaussian puffs to represent an

arbitrary, three

‐ dimensional time

‐ dependent concentration field. The diffusion

parameterization is based on turbulence closure theory, which gives a prediction of the

dispersion rate in terms of the measurable turbulent velocity statistics of the wind field.

The SCIPUFF contains puff splitting when wind shear is encountered across a puff and puff

merging when two puffs occupy the same space.

HYSPLIT 11 : The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT Version

4.8; Draxler, 1997) is a complete system for computing simple air parcel trajectories to

complex dispersion and deposition simulations. The dispersion of a pollutant is calculated

by assuming either puff or particle or hybrid puff/particle dispersion. In the puff model,

9 http://www.src.com/calpuff/calpuff1.htm

10 http://www.sage

‐ mgt.net/services/modeling

‐ and

‐ simulation/scipuff

‐ dispersion

‐ model

11 http://www.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_info.php6 puffs expand until they exceed the size of the meteorological grid cell (either horizontally

or vertically) and then split into several new puffs, each with its share of the pollutant

mass. In the particle model, a fixed number of particles are advected about the model

domain by the mean wind field and spread by a turbulent component. The model's default

configuration assumes a 3

‐ dimensional particle distribution (horizontal and vertical).

FLEXPART 12 : The FLEXPART (Version 6.2; Siebert, 2006; Stohl et al., 2005 13 ) model is a

Lagrangian particle dispersion model developed at the Norwegian Institute for Air

Research in the Department of Atmospheric and Climate Research. FLEXPART was

originally designed for calculating the long

‐ range and mesoscale dispersion of air

pollutants from point sources, such as after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the

meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport

modeling and analysis

CAMx 14 : The Comprehensive Air

‐ quality Model with extensions (CAMx; ENVIRON, 2010) is

a photochemical grid model (PGM) that simulates inert or chemical reactive pollutants

from the local to continental scale. As a grid model, it simulates transport and dispersion

using finite difference techniques on a three

‐ dimensional array of grid cells. To treat the

near

‐ source dispersion of plumes, CAMx includes a subgrid

‐ scale Lagrangian puff Plume

‐

in

‐ Grid (PiG) module whose mass is transferred to the grid model when the plume size is

comparable to the grid size.

CALGRID : The California Mesoscale Photochemical Grid Model (Yamartino, et al., 1989,

Scire et al., 1989; Earth Tech, 2005) is a PGM that simulates chemically reactive pollutants

from the local to regional scale. As with CAMx, it is a grid model that simulates transport

and dispersion using finite differencing techniques on a three

‐ dimensional array of grid

cells. CALGRID was originally designed to utilize meteorological fields produced by the

CALMET meteorological processor (Scire et al., 2000a), but was updated in 2006 to utilize

meteorology and emissions in UAM format (Earth Tech, 2006).

Although up to six LRT dispersion models were run for two of the tracer field experiments, a key

component of this study was the evaluation of the CALPUFF model and running CALPUFF with

various configurations of its meteorological drivers, CALMET and MMIF to help inform

regulatory guidance on the operation of the CALPUFF system. Key to developing insight into

the performance of any single model is to evaluate other models when configured similarly and

using similar meteorological databases. Table 2

‐ 1 summarizes which LRT models were run with

the four field study tracer experiments presented in this report.

For the GP80 CALPUFF/CALMET application, numerous CALPUFF sensitivity tests were

performed using different configurations of CALMET including with and without MM5 data and

use of no observations. A limited set of CALPUFF sensitivity tests were also conducted using

different dispersion options. The other LRT models (save CALGRID) results were also evaluated

for the 600 km distant arc of receptors, but are not presented in the CALPUFF comparison

because this evaluation is based upon the NOAA DATEM statistical framework and is not

consistent with how CALPUFF was evaluated by EPA for this experiment in 1998.

12 http://transport.nilu.no/flexpart

13 http://www.atmos

‐ chem

‐ phys.net/5/2461/2005/acp

‐ 5

‐ 2461

‐ 2005.html

14 http://www.camx.com/7 The evaluation of the LRT models using the SRL75 tracer data only has results for CALPUFF.

Several CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests were run using only meteorological observations,

only MM5 data and hybrid MM5 plus meteorological observations. CALPUFF/MMIF was run

using 36, 12 and 4 km MM5 data.

Two tracer releases were evaluated using the CAPTEX database, Releases No. 3 and 5. While all

of the models listed in Table 2

‐ 1 were run for the CAPTEX database, numerous CALMET

sensitivity tests were also conducted, including the evaluation of CALMET using various

configurations for CAPTEX Release No. 3 and 5 that helped define the EPA

‐ FLM recommended

CALMET settings in the August 2009 Clarification Memorandum (EPA, 2009b).

The LRT model intercomparison using the CAPTEX and ETEX databases was done differently

than the other two tracer test evaluations. The objective of the ETEX with CAPTEX LRT model

evaluation intercomparison was to evaluate the LRT dispersion models using a common

meteorological input database. Thus, all LRT models used the same MM5 meteorological

inputs.

Table 2

‐ 1. Model availability for the four tracer test field experiments.

Model GP80 SRL75 CAPTEX ETEX

CALPUFF/CALME T Yes Yes Yes No

CALMET/MMIF Yes Yes Yes Yes

SCIPUFF No No Yes Yes

HYSPLIT No No Yes Yes

FLEXPAR T No No Yes Yes

CAMx No No Yes Yes

CALGRID No No Yes No

2.3 RELEATED PREVIOUS STUDIES

Over the years there have been numerous studies that have evaluated dispersion models using

tracer test and other field study databases. In fact, much of the early development of Gaussian

plume dispersion formulation was assisted by radioactive ambient field data (Slade, 1968). The

development and evaluation of the AERMOD steady

‐ state Gaussian plume model used almost

20 near

‐ source field study datasets 15

. The discussion below is limited to long range transport

(LRT) dispersion model evaluations that have been related to the development of the CALPUFF

modeling system, which in 2003 was identified as the EPA recommended regulatory LRT model

for far

‐ field (> 50 km) air quality modeling of chemically inert compounds (EPA, 2003).

2.3.1 1986 Evaluation of Eight Short

‐ Term Long Range Transport Models

EPA sponsored a study to evaluate 8 LRT models using the GP80 tracer field experiment and

Krypton

‐ 85 releases from the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL; Telegadas et al., 1980) databases

(Policastro et al., 1986). The eight models were MESOPUFF, MESOPLUME, MSPUFF,

MESOPUFF

‐ II, MTDDIS, ARRPA, RADM and RTM

‐ II. MESOPUFF, MSPUFF and MESOPUFF

‐ II are

Lagrangian puff models that all have their original basis on the MESOPUFF model. MESOPLUME

is a Lagrangian plume segment model. MTDDIS is a variable trajectory model that also uses the

Gaussian puff formulation. ARRPA is a single

‐ source segmented plume model. RADM and

RTM

‐ II are Eulerian grid models. Model performance was evaluated by graphical and statistical

methods. The primary means for the evaluation of model performance was the use of the

American Meteorological Society (AMS) statistics (Fox, 1981). The AMS statistics recommends

15 http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/dispersion_prefrec.htm#aermod8 that performance evaluation be based on comparisons of the full set of predicted/observed

data pairs as well as the highest predicted and observed values per event and the highest N

values (e.g., N=10) unpaired in space or time that represents the highest end of the

concentration distribution.

Six of the eight LRT models were applied to both the GP80 and SRL75 experiments. The ARRPA

model could only be applied to the GP80 database and the MTDDIS model could only be

applied to the SRL75 database. Model performance was generally consistent between the two

tracer databases and was characterized by three features:

• A spatial offset of the predicted and observed patterns.

• A time difference between the predicted and observed arrival of the plumes to the

receptors.

• A definite angular offset of the predicted and observed plumes that could be as much as

20

‐ 45 degrees.

The LRT models tended to underestimate the horizontal spreading of the plume at ground level

resulting in too high peak (centerline) concentrations when compared to the observations. For

the Lagrangian models this is believed to be due to using sigma

‐ y dispersion (Turner) curves

that are representative of near

‐ source and are applied for longer (> 50 km) downwind

distances. The spatial and angular offsets resulted in poor correlations and large bias and error

between the predicted and observed tracer concentrations when paired by time and location.

However, when comparing the maximum predicted and observed concentrations unmatched

by time and location, the models performed much better. For example, the average of the

highest 25 predicted and observed concentrations (unpaired in location and time) were within

a factor of two for six of the eight models evaluated (MESOPUFF, MESOPLUME, MESOPLUME,

MTDDIS, ARRPA and RTM

‐ II). The study concluded that the LRT models’ observed tendency to

over

‐ predict the observed peak concentrations errs on the conservative side for regulatory

applications. However, this over

‐ prediction must be weighed against the general tendency of

those models to underestimate horizontal spreading and to predict a plume pattern that is

spatially offset from the observed data.

2.3.2 Rocky Mountain Acid Deposition Model Assessment Project

– Western Atmospheric

Deposition Task Force

A second round of LRT model evaluations was conducted as part of the Rocky Mountain Acid

Deposition Model Assessment (EPA, 1990). In this study, the eight models from the 1986

evaluation were compared against a newer model, the Acid Rain Mountain Mesoscale Model

(ARM3) (EPA, 1988). The statistical evaluation considered data paired in time/space and also

unpaired in time/space equally. In this study, it was found that the MESOPUFF

‐ II (Scire et al.,

1984a, and 1984b) model performed best when using unpaired data, and that the ARM3 model

performed best when using paired data. A final model score was assigned on the basis of a

model’s performance relative to the others in each of the areas (paired in time/space, unpaired

in time/space, and paired in time, not space) for each of two tracer releases considered.

The primary objective was to assemble a mesoscale air quality model based primarily on

models or model components available at the time for use by state and federal agencies to

assess acid deposition in the complex terrain of the Rocky Mountains.9 2.3.3 Comparison of CALPUFF Modeling Results to Two Tracer Field Experiments

The CALPUFF dispersion model (CALPUFF Version 4) was compared against tracer

measurements from the GP80 and SRL75 field study experiments in a study conducted by

James O. Paumier and Roger W. Brode (EPA, 1998a). The evaluation approach adopted the

method used by Irwin (1997) that examined fitted predicted and observed plume

concentrations across an arc of receptors. Meteorological inputs for the CALPUFF model were

based on CALMET using observed surface and upper

‐ air meteorological data. The study found

that for these three tracer releases, there was overall agreement between the observed times

and modeled times for both the time required for the plume to reach the receptor arc, as well

as the time to pass completely by the arc. However, the transport direction had an angular

offset. For the GP80 100 km arc, CALPUFF underestimated the lateral dispersion of the plume

and overestimated the plume peak as well as the cross wind integrated concentration (CWIC)

average concentrations across the plume; the lateral dispersion and CWIC were within a factor

of two of the observed value and the CALPUFF fitted plume centerline concentrations was 2 to

21⁄2 times greater than observed. Very different model performance was seen at the 600 km arc

of receptors with simulated maximum and CWIC that were 2 to 2 1⁄2 times lower than observed

and lateral dispersion that was 21⁄2 to 31⁄2 times greater than observed.

2.3.4 ETEX and ATMES

‐ II

After the Chernobyl accident in April 1986, the Atmospheric Transport Model Evaluation Study

(ATMES) was initiated to compare the evolution of the radioactive cloud from Chernobyl with

predictions by mathematical models for atmospheric dispersion, using as input the estimated

source term and the meteorological data for the days following the accident. Considerable

work was undertaken by ATMES in order to identify and make available the databases of

radionuclide concentration in air measured after the Chernobyl accident and of meteorological

conditions that occurred. The ATMES LRT dispersion modeling and model evaluation was

conducted in the 1989

‐ 1990 time period. The performance of the LRT models to predict the

observed radionuclides was hampered by the poor characterization of the emissions release

from Chernobyl.

In May 1989, it was proposed to carry out a massive tracer experiment in Europe designed to

address the weaknesses of ATMES modeling. In the following year the proposal was analyzed

and modified to adapt it to the European context, and to take account of the ATMES results, as

they became available. The experiment was named ETEX 16

, European Tracer Experiment. It

was designed to test the readiness of interested services to respond in the case of an

emergency, to organize the tracer release and compile a data set of measured air

concentrations and to investigate the performance of long range atmospheric transport and

dispersion models using that data set.

The period 15 October

‐ 15 December 1994 was selected as the possible window for the two

tracer experiments as part of ETEX. The first release started at 1600 UTC on October 23, 1994,

and lasted 11 hours and 50 minutes. 340 kg of PMCH (perfluoromethylcyclohexane) tracer were

released in Monterfil, France (48° 03’ 30’’ N, 2° 00’ 30’’ W) at an average flow rate of 8.0 g/s.

The second ETEX tracer experiment started at 1500 UTC on November 14, 1994 and lasted for 9

hours and 45 minutes and released 490 kg of PMCP (perfluromethlcyclopentane) from

Monterfil for an average release rate of 11.58 g/s.

16 http://rem.jrc.ec.europa.eu/etex/10 The ETEX real

‐ time LRT modeling phase was performed in parallel with the tracer field

experiment. When the release started, 28 modeling groups were notified of the starting time,

source location, and emission rate. They ran their LRT models in real

‐ time to predict the

evolution of the tracer cloud, and their predictions were sent as soon as they were available to

the statistical evaluation team at JRC

‐ Ispra. The capability of providing these predictions in

real

‐ time was considered to be an important factor, as well as the model performance itself.

Therefore, only those institutions that had access to a meteorological model or that received

real

‐ time forecasts from a meteorological centre could participate.

The analysis of these calculations could not distinguish the differences between predictions and

measurements arising from dispersion model inadequacies as opposed to those arising from

the meteorological forecasts used. Almost two years after the ETEX releases, the ATMES

‐ II

modeling exercise was launched to evaluate the LRT models in hindcast mode. ATMES

‐ II

participants were required to calculate the concentration fields of the first ETEX tracer

experiment using ECMWF analyzed meteorological data as input to their own dispersion

models. Any institution operating a long

‐ range dispersion model could now participate

whether or not it had real

‐ time access to the meteorological data, and the number of

participants (49) was increased compared to the ETEX real

‐ time modeling exercise, even though

not all of the original ETEX modelers took part in ATMES

‐ II.

Contrary to ETEX, the differences between the measured and modeled concentration fields in

ATMES

‐ II could be more directly related to the dispersion simulation, thanks to the use of the

same meteorological fields. However, even in this case, discrepancies between models were

due not only to the calculation of dispersion, but also to the different ways in which the

meteorological information was used. Moreover, ATMES

‐ II modelers could also submit results

obtained with a meteorological analysis different from that of ECMWF.

As for the statistical analysis in ETEX real

‐ time modeling exercise, the analysis of ATMES

‐ II

model results was divided into time, space and global analyses. The same statistical indices of

the first ETEX release were computed in the time analysis, while for the other two analyses

some different indices were computed following the requirements of modelers, and the

experience gained during the two real

‐ time exercises.

In a general, a substantial improvement in the models' performance in the ATMES

‐ II modeling

was seen compared to the ETEX real

‐ time modeling phase for the common statistical indices.

When comparing the results of the ATMES

‐ II statistical analysis with those for the real

‐ time

simulation of the first ETEX release, a general improvement of the model performances for

those who took part in both exercises is evident. This can be explained by the better resolution

of the meteorological fields used, the availability of the measured values of tracer

concentration that allowed participants to tune some parameters in their long

‐ range dispersion

model and the time elapsed between the two exercises (2 years) during which improvements in

model formulation and application procedures took place.

Spatial Analysis : In ATMES

‐ II the spatial analysis consisted of the calculation of the Figure of

Merit in Space (FMS) at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 hours after the release start. The FMS is the ratio of

the spatial distribution of the overlap of the predicted and observed tracer pattern to the union

of the predicted and observed tracer pattern and is expressed as a percent (note that all

statistical metrics are defined in detail in Section 2.4). A big improvement could be observed in

the models' FMS compared to the ETEX real

‐ time exercise for the first release. For instance, at

36 hours in ATMES

‐ II all the models had a non

‐ zero FMS, half of the models had FMS>45% and11 a quarter of the models had FMS>55%, with a maximum FMS value of 71%. In ETEX, at 36

hours one tenth of the models had a zero FMS (i.e., no overlap of the predicted and observed

tracer cloud) and a quarter had an FMS>45%, with a maximum FMS of 67%. At 60 hours in

ATMES

‐ II half of the models (against only a quarter of the models of ETEX) had a FMS>30% and

the maximum FMS was 58%, while the maximum FMS for ETEX models was 52%.

Temporal Analysis : The temporal analysis was carried out at two arcs of receptors at distances

of approximately 600 and 1,200

‐ 1,400 km from the release point. In general, the LRT models

were better at predicting the time of arrival, duration and peak concentration of the tracer

cloud for the central stations of the two arcs, and less satisfactory for the external stations. The

Figure of Merit in Time (FMT, see Section 2.4 for definition) the best performances were

observed for the central stations of the two arcs. For all the stations selected for the time

analysis, FMT of models in ATMES

‐ II improved when compared to the first ETEX release

exercise.

Global Statistics : The global statistical indexes also indicate a general improvement of models'

performance in ATMES

‐ II compared to the ETEX real time modeling exercise. For instance, only

eight models out of 49 (16%) had a bias higher than 0.4 ngm ‐ 3 (400 pg/m 3 ) in absolute value;

the number of models above the same threshold in ETEX real time was 24 out of the 28 (86%)

participants. Almost all models showed a satisfactory agreement with the measured values.

However, few models were distinguished by a particularly good (or bad) performance in all

respects. More than half of the models showed a relatively small error (NMSE), indicating a

limited spread of the predictions around the corresponding measurements. Again, while in the

ETEX real

‐ time exercise only four models had an NMSE less than 100, 42 models were below

this threshold in ATMES

‐ II. Improvements compared to ETEX could also be seen in the number

of predicted and observed pairs within a factor of 2 (FA2) and 5 (FA5) of each other; whereas in

ATMES

‐ II half of the models had FA5>45%, in ETEX no model reached that value. There was no

negative Pearson correlation coefficient, with the best models showing values slightly less than

0.7.

Conclusions : The three main original objectives of ETEX as follows:

• to test the capability of institutes involved in emergency response to produce predictions

of the cloud evolution in real

‐ time;

• to evaluate the validity of their predictions; and

• to assemble a database that allows the evaluation of long

‐ range atmospheric dispersion

models.12 The ETEX study has formulated the following conclusions:

• The objectives stated in the project design were met.

• ETEX demonstrated the feasibility of conducting a continental scale tracer experiment

across Europe using the perfluorocarbon tracer technique.

• There is a large number of institutes that can (and will in the event of a real accident)

predict the long

‐ range atmospheric dispersion of a pollutant cloud.

• The rapidity of LRT dispersion modeling groups in predicting the tracer cloud evolution

and transmitting the results to a central point was excellent.

• Regarding the quality of the predictions, differences between observations and

calculations of 3 to 6 hours in arrival time and a factor of 3 in maximum airborne

concentrations at ground level should be viewed as the best achievable with current LRT

models.

• The simulation of cloud dispersion at short and mesoscale distances seems to have

considerable influence on the long

‐ range cloud development.

• The transition of the dispersion scales from local to long

‐ range modeling should be

investigated in more detail.

• ETEX assembled a unique experimental database of tracer concentrations and

meteorological data accessible via the Internet.

• ETEX created widespread interest and resulted in considerable dispersion model

development as well as the reinforcement of communication and collaboration between

national institutes and international organizations.

• The ETEX network of national institutes and international organizations should be

maintained and improved to continue model development and demonstrate the technical

capability necessary to support emergency management in real cases.

• Further investigations are needed to determine the quality of predictions under complex

meteorological conditions, and to quantify the uncertainty of models for emergency

management.

2.3.5 Data Archive of Tracer Experiments and Meteorology (DATEM)

The Data Archive of Tracer Experiments and Meteorology (DATEM 17 ) is not a single particular

study but an archive of tracer experiment and meteorological data and suggested procedures

for evaluating LRT dispersion models using atmospheric tracer data (Draxler, Heffter and Rolph,

2002). The DATEM archive currently incorporates data from five long

‐ range dispersion

experiments, which represent a collection of more than 19,000 air concentration samples, re

‐ analysis fields from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) / National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) re

‐ analysis project, and statistical analysis programs based

upon the ATMES

‐ II evaluation of ETEX. All the emissions and sampling data are in space

delimited text files, easily used by FORTRAN programs or imported into any spreadsheet.

Meteorological data fields have been reformatted for use by HYSPLIT and are available for

download. The statistical programs are all written in FORTRAN and include PC executables with

the source code so that they can be compiled on other platforms.

The five long range transport tracer field experiments whose atmospheric and meteorological

data reside on the DATEM website are as follows:

17 http://www.arl.noaa.gov/DATEM.php13 ACURATE : The Atlantic Coast Unique Regional Atmospheric Tracer Experiment (ACURATE)

operating during 1982

‐ 1983 and consisted of measuring Krypton 85 air concentrations from

emissions out of the Savannah River Plant in South Carolina (Heffter et al., 1984). 12

‐ and

24

‐ hour average samples were collected for 19 months at five monitoring sites that were

300 to 1,000 km from the release point.

ANATEX : The Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX) consisted of 65 releases

of three types of Perflurocarbon Tracers (PFTs) that were released from Glasgow,

Montana and St. Cloud, Minnesota over three months (January

‐ March, 1987). The PFTs

were measured at 75 monitoring sites covering the eastern U.S. and southeastern Canada

(Draxler and Heffter, Eds, 1989).

CAPTEX : The Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) occurred during September

and October, 1983 and consisted of 4 PFT releases from Dayton, Ohio and 2 PFT releases

from Sudbury, Ontario, Canada (Ferber et al., 1986). Sampling occurred at 84 sites from

300 to 800 km from the PFT release sites.

INEL74 : The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL74) experiment consisted of

releases of Krypton 85 during February

‐ March, 1974 with sampling taken at 11 sites

approximately 1,500 km downwind stretching from Oklahoma City to Minneapolis (Ferber

et al., 1977; Draxler, 1982).

GP80 : The 1980 Oklahoma City Great Plains (GP80) consisted of two releases of PFTs on

July 8 and July 11, 1980. The first PFT release was sampled at two arcs at a distance 100

km and 600 km with 10 and 35 monitoring sites on each arc, respectively (Ferber et al.,

1981). The second PFT release was only monitored at a distance of 100 km at the

corresponding 10 sites from the July 8 release.

The DATEM website also includes a model evaluation protocol for evaluating LRT dispersion

models using tracer field experiment that was designed following the procedures by Mosca et

al. (1998) for the ATMES

‐ II study and Stohl et al., (1998). The DATEM model evaluation

protocol has four broad categories of model evaluation:

1. Scatter among paired measured and calculated values;

2. Bias of the calculations in terms of over ‐ and under

‐ predictions;

3. Spatial distribution of the calculation relative to the measurements; and

4. Differences in the distribution of unpaired measured and calculated values.

A recommended set of statistical performance measures are provided along with a FORTRAN

program (statmain) to calculate them. The DATEM recommendations have been adopted in

this study and more details on the DATEM recommended ATMES

‐ II model evaluation approach

is provided in section 2.4.3.

2.4 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION APROACHES AND METHODS

2.4.1 Model Evaluation Philosophy

To date, no specific guidance has been developed by the USEPA for evaluating LRT models.

According to EPA’s Interim Procedures for Evaluating Air Quality Models (Revised)

, the rationale

for selecting a particular data group combination depends upon the objective of the

performance evaluation. For this it is necessary to translate the regulatory purposes of the

intended use of the model into performance evaluation objectives (EPA, 1984; Britter, et al.,

1995). Under the approach for both the 1986 and 1998 EPA LRT model evaluation projects, no

particular emphasis was placed on any data group combination or set of statistical measures.14 In this study we expand the LRT model performance philosophy to include spatial,

correlation/scatter, bias, error and frequency distribution performance metrics.

In their regulatory use within the United States, LRT models are used to predict impacts of

criteria pollutants for national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) and Prevention of

Significant Deterioration of Air Quality (PSD) Class I increments. Additionally, Federal Land

Management Agencies rely upon the same LRT models in the PSD program for estimates of

chemical transformation and removal to assess impacts on air quality related values (AQRV’s)

such as visibility and acid deposition. The chemistry of aerosol formation is highly dependent

upon the spatial and temporal variability of meteorology (e.g., relative humidity and

temperature) and precursors (e.g., ammonia).

Recognizing the need for developing an evaluation approach that reflects the intended

regulatory uses of LRT models, the model performance evaluation approach of Mosca et al.,

(1998) and Stohl et al., (1998) used in the ATMES

‐ II study and recommended by DATEM

(Draxler, Heffter and Rolph, 2002) was adopted for this study.

We have also included elements of the plume fitting evaluation approach of Irwin (1997) for

comparison with the results from the original 1998 tracer evaluation study (EPA, 1998a). The

Irwin model evaluation approach is only applicable when you have an arc of receptors at a

given distance downwind of the source so that a cross plume distribution and dispersion

statistics can be generated. Whereas, the ATMES

‐ II is more applicable when you have

receptors spread over a large region and can calculate statistical parameters related to the

predicted and observed distribution of the tracer concentrations. Accordingly, we use the Irwin

plume fitting statistical evaluation approach for the GP80 and SRL75 tracer experiments whose

receptors were defined along arcs at a given distance from the source and we used the ATMES

‐

II statistical evaluation approach for the CAPTEX and ETEX tracer experiments that had

receptors that were defined across a broad area.

2.4.2 Irwin Plume Fitting Model Evaluation Approach

Irwin (1997) focused his evaluation of the CALPUFF modeling system on its ability to replicate

centerline concentrations and plume widths, with more emphasis placed upon these factors

than data such as modeled/observed plume azimuth, plume arrival time, and plume transit

time. The Great Plains and Savannah River tracer CALPUFF evaluations (EPA, 1998a) followed

the tracer evaluation methodology of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) tracer

study conducted on April 19, 1977 near Idaho Falls, Idaho (Irwin, 1997).

Irwin examined CALPUFF performance by calculating the cross

‐ wind integrated concentration

(CWIC), azimuth of plume centerline, and the second moment of tracer concentration (lateral

dispersion of the plume [ σ y ]). The CWIC is calculated by trapezoidal integration across average

monitor concentrations along the arc. By assuming a Gaussian distribution of concentrations

along the arc, a fitted plume centerline concentration (Cmax) can be calculated by the following

equation:

Cmax = CWIC/[(2 π ) 1⁄2 σ y ] (2

‐ 1)

The measure σ y describes the extent of plume horizontal dispersion. This is important to

understanding differences between the various dispersion options available in the CALPUFF

modeling system. Additional measures for temporal analysis include plume arrival time and the

plume transit time on arc. Table 2

‐ 2 summarizes the statistical metrics used in the Irwin fitted

Gaussian plume evaluation methodology.15 Table 2

‐ 2. Model performance metrics from Irwin (1997) and 1998 EPA CALPUFF Evaluation

(EPA, 1998a).

Statistics Description

Spatial

Azimuth of Plume Centerline Comparison of the predicted angular displacement of the plume

centerline from the observed centerline on the arc

Plume Sigma

‐ y Comparison of the predicted and observed fitted plume widths

(i.e., dispersion rate)

Temporal

Plume Arrival Time Compare the time the predicted and observed tracer clouds

arrives on the receptor arc

Transit Time on Arc Compare the predicted and observed residence time on the

receptor arc

Performance

Crosswind Integrated Concentration Compares the predicted and observed average concentrations

across the receptor arc (CWIC)

Observed/Calculated Maximum Comparison of the predicted and observed fitted Gaussian

plume centerline (maximum) concentrations (Cmax) and

maximum concentration at any receptor along the arc Omax)

The measures employed by Irwin (1997) and EPA (1998a) provide useful diagnostic information

about the performance of LRT modeling systems, such as CALPUFF, but they do not always lend

themselves easily to spatiotemporal analysis or direct model intercomparison.

For tracer studies such as the Great Plains Tracer Experiment and Savannah River where distinct

arcs of monitors were present, the Irwin plume fitting evaluation approach was used in this

study.

2.4.3 ATMES

‐ II Model Evaluation Approach

The model evaluation methodology employed for this study was designed following the

procedures of Mosca et al. (1998) and Draxler et al. (2002). Mosca et al. (1998) defined three

types of statistical analyses:

• Spatial Analysis : Concentrations at a fixed time are considered over the entire domain.

Useful for determining differences spatial differences between predicted and observed

concentrations.

• Temporal Analysis : Concentrations at a fixed location are considered for the entire

analysis period. This can be useful for determining differences between the timing of

predicted and observed tracer concentrations.

• Global Analysis : All concentration values at any time and location are considered in this

analysis. The global analysis considers the distribution of the values (probability), overall

tendency towards overestimation or underestimation of measured values (bias and error),

measures of scatter in the predicted and observed concentrations and measures of

correlation.

2.4.3.1 Spatial Analysis

To examine similarities between the predicted and observed ground level concentrations, the

Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) is calculated at a fixed time and for a fixed concentration level.

The FMS is defined as the ratio between the overlap of the measured ( A M ) and predicted ( A P )

areas above a significant concentration level and their union:16 The more the predicted and measured tracer clouds overlap one another, the greater the FMS

values are. A high FMS value corresponds to better model performance, with a perfect model

achieving a 100% FMS score.

Additional spatial performance measures of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Rate

(FAR), and Threat Score (TS) are also used. Typically used as a method for meteorological

forecast verification, these three interrelated statistics are useful descriptions of an air quality

model’s ability to spatially forecast a certain condition. The forecast condition for the model is

the predicted concentration above a user

‐ specified threshold (at the 0.1 ngm ‐ 3 (100 pgm ‐ 3 ) level

for ATMES

‐ II study). In these equations:

• “a” represents the number of times a condition that has been forecast, but was not

observed (false alarm)

• “b” represents the number of times the condition was correctly forecasted (hits)

• “c” represents the number of times the nonoccurrence of the condition is correctly

forecasted (correct negative); and

• “d” represents the number of times that the condition was observed but not forecasted

(miss).

The FAR (Equation 2

‐ 3) is described as a measure of the percentage of times that a condition

was forecast, but was not observed. The range of the score is 0 to 1 or 0% to 100%, with the

ideal FAR score of 0 or 0% (i.e., there are observed tracer concentrations at a monitor/time

every time the model predicts there is a tracer concentration at that monitor/time).

The POD is a statistical measure which describes the fraction of observed events of the

condition forecasted was correctly forecasted. Equation 2

‐ 4 shows that POD is defined as the

ratio of “hits” to the sum of “hits” and “misses.” The range of the POD score is 0 to 1 (or 0%to

100%), with the ideal score of 1 (or 100%).

The TS (Equation 2

‐ 5) is described as the measure describing how well correct forecasts

corresponded to observed conditions. The TS does not consider correctly forecasted negative

conditions, but penalizes the score for both false alarms and misses. The range of the TS is the

same as the POD, ranging from 0 to 1 (0% to 100%), with the ideal score of 1 (100%). 

### % 100 × ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛

+ = d b b POD (2

‐ 4) 

### % 100 × ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛

+ = b a a FAR (2

‐ 3) 

### % 100 ×

∪ ∩

=

P M P M



### A A A A FMS (2

‐ 2)17 2.4.3.2 Temporal Analysis

In Section 2.4.1 temporal statistics related to the timing of when the predicted and observed

tracer arrives at a monitor or arc of monitors, its residence time over a monitor (or arc) and

when the tracer leaves the monitor (or arc) were discussed. Another temporal analysis

statistics is the Figure of Merit in Time (FMT), which is analogous to the FMS only it is calculated

at a fixed location ( x ) rather than a fixed time as the FMS. The FMT evaluates the overlap

between the measures (M) and predicted (P) concentration at location x and time t j

. The FMT

is normalized to the maximum predicted or measured value at each time interval and is

expressed as a percentage value in the same manner as the FMS (Mosca et al., 1998).

(2

‐ 6)

The FMT is sensitive to both differences between measured and predicted and any temporal

shifts that may occur.

2.4.3.3 Global Analysis

Following Draxler et al. (2002), four broad categories were used for global analysis of model

evaluation. These broad categories are: (1) scatter; (2) bias; (3) spatial distribution of

predictions relative to measurements; and (4) differences in the distribution of unpaired

measured and predicted values. One or more statistical measures are used from each of the

four categories in the global analysis. These include the percent over

‐ prediction, number of

calculations within a factor of 2 and 5 of the measurements, normalized mean square error,

correlation coefficient, bias, fractional bias, figure of merit in space, and the Kolmogorov

‐

Smirnov parameter representing the differences in cumulative distributions (Draxler et al.,

2002).

Factor of Exceedance : In the scatter category, better model performance is observed when the

Factor of Exceedance (FOEX) measure is close to zero and FA2 (described next) has a high

percentage. A high positive FOEX and high percentage of FA5 would indicate a model’s

tendency towards over

‐ prediction when compared to observed values.

Where, N in the numerator is the number of pairs when the prediction ( P ) exceeds the

measurement ( M ) and the N in the denominator is the total number of pairs in the evaluation.

In FOEX, all 0

‐ 0 pairs are excluded from the analysis. FOEX can range from

‐ 50% to +50% with a

perfect model receiving a 0% value. ( ) % 100 5

. 0 × ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− = >

N N

FOEX i i Ni P (2

‐ 7) 

### % 100 × ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛

+ + = d b a b TS (2

‐ 5)18 Factor of α (FA α ) : FA α represents the percentage of predicted values that are within a factor of

α

, where we have used α = 2 or 5. As with FOEX, in FA α all 0

‐ 0 pairs are excluded.

Normalized Mean Squared Error (NMSE) : Normalized mean squared error is the average of the

square of the differences divided by the product of the means. NMSE gives information about

the deviations, but does not yield estimations of model over

‐ prediction or under

‐ prediction.

Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (PCC) : Also referred to as the linear correlation coefficient, its

value ranges between

‐ 1.0 and +1.0. A value of +1.0 indicates “perfect positive correlation” or

having all pairings of (M i , P i ) lay on straight line on a scatter diagram with a positive slope.

Conversely, a value of

‐ 1.0 indicates “perfect negative correlation” or having all pairings of (M i ,

P i ) lie on a straight line with a negative slope. A value of near 0.0 indicates the clear absence of

relationship between the model predictions and observed values.

Fractional Bias (FB): Calculated as the mean difference in prediction minus observation pairings

divided by the average of the predicted and observed values.

Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter (KS) : The KS parameter is defined as the maximum difference

between two cumulative distributions. The KS parameter provides a quantitative estimate

where C is the cumulative distribution of the measured and predicted concentrations over the

range of k. The KS is a measure of how well the model reproduces the measured concentration

distribution regardless of when or where it occurred. The maximum difference between any

two distributions cannot be more than 100%.

RANK : Given the large number of metrics, a single measure describing the overall performance

of a model could be useful. Stohl et al. (1998) evaluated many of the above measures and 

## ( ) ( )

k k 

### P C M C Max KS

− = (2

‐ 12) 

# ( ) M P B FB + = 2 (2

‐ 11)



# ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− − •

−

= 

# ∑ ∑ ∑

2 2 

### P P M M P P M M

R

i i i i i (2

‐ 10) 

## ( ) 2 

### 1 

# ∑

− = i i 

### M P

PM N NMSE (2

‐ 9) 

## [ ] ( )

100 0 0

× ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− =

−

= N x x y y N FA 

### α

α (2

‐ 8)19 discovered ratio based statistics such as FA2 and FA5 were highly susceptible to measurement

errors. Draxler proposed a single metric, which he calls RANK, which is the composite of one

statistical measure from each of the four broad categories.

The final score, model rank ( RANK ), provides a combined measure to facilitate model

intercomparison. RANK is the sum of four of the statistical measures for scatter, bias, spatial

coverage, and the unpaired distribution. RANK scores range between 0.0 and 4.0 with 4.0

representing the best model ranking. Using this measure allows for direct intercomparison of

models across each of the four broader statistical categories.

2.4.3.4 Treatment of Zero Concentration Data

One issue in the performance evaluation was how to treat zero concentration data. Mosca et

al. (1998) filtered the ETEX observational dataset by only retaining non

‐ zero data and zero data

within two sample time intervals (6 hours) of the arrival and departure times of the tracer cloud

along with any zero observations in between these two time points. Stohl (1998) employed a

Monte Carlo approach by adding normally distributed “random errors” to the original values to

test the sensitivity of certain statistical measures to zero or near zero values. Stohl (1998)

identified that certain statistical parameters may be sensitive to small variations in

measurements when using “zero” or near “zero” background concentration data. While the

inclusion of “zero” data creates concern about the robustness of certain statistical measures,

especially ratio based statistics, there was also concern that only examining model statistics at

locations where the tracer cloud was observed provides a limited snapshot of a model’s

performance at those locations, and did not offer any insight into a model that may show

poorer performance by transporting emissions to incorrect locations or advection to correct

locations at incorrect times.

While the arguments for “filtering” of data are valid, it is also important to consider additional

statistical measures such as the FAR, POD, and TS where all zero data must be considered. All

zero data was retained for inclusion in the spatial analysis, but was filtered for the global

statistical analysis. The approach used in this project differs from the approach used by Draxler

et al. (2001) in that all zero

‐ zero pairs are considered in their analysis of HYSPLIT performance. 

# ( ) ( ) 100 / 1 100 / 2 / 1 2 

### KS FMS FB R RANK

− + +

− + = (2

‐ 13)20 

## 3.0 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY

3.1 DESCRIPTION OF 1980 GREAT PLAINS FIELD STUDY

LRT tracer test experiments were conducted in 1980 with the release of a perfluorocarbon and

sulfur hexafluoride tracers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, Oklahoma (Ferber et al., 1981). Two arcs

of monitoring sites were used to sample the tracer plumes; an arc of 30 samplers with a 4

‐ 5 km

spacing located approximately 100 km from the release point that sampled at 45 minute

intervals and an arc of 38 samplers through Nebraska and Missouri located approximately 600

km from the release site that sampled at an hourly interval. Figure 3

‐ 1 displays the locations of

the tracer release site and the monitoring sites on the arcs that are 100 km and 600 km

downwind of the source. Two experiments were conducted, one on July 8, 1980 that included

both the 100 km and 600 km sampling arcs and one on July 11, 1980 that only included the 100

km sampling arc. The July 8, 1980 tracer field experiment and subsequent Perfluoro

‐ Dimethyl

‐ cyclohexane (PDCH) observed concentrations were used in this model evaluation study. The

PDCH tracer was released over a three

‐ hour period from 1900

‐ 2200 GMT (1400

‐ 1700 CDT) on

July 8, 1980 from an open field near the NOAA/NSSL.

3.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION

The CALPUFF modeling system uses a grid system consisting of an array of horizontal grid cells

and multiple vertical layers. Two grids must be defined in the CALPUFF model, a meteorological

grid and a computational grid. The meteorological grid defines the extent over which landuse,

winds, and other meteorological variables are defined in the CALMET simulation. The

computational grid defines the extent of the concentration calculations in the CALPUFF

simulation, and is required to be identical to or a subset of the meteorological grid. For the

GP80 simulations, the computational grid is defined to be identical to the meteorological grid.

A third grid, the sampling grid, is optional, and is used by CALPUFF to define a rectangular array

of receptor locations. The sampling grid must be identical to or a subset of the computational

grid. It may also be nested inside the computational grid (i.e., several sampling grid cells per

computational grid cell). For the GP80 applications, a sampling grid identical to the

computational grid was used with a nesting factor of one (sampling grid cell size equal to the

cell size of the computational grid).

To properly characterize the meteorology for the CALPUFF modeling system, a grid that spans,

at a minimum, the distance between source and receptor is required. However, to allow for

possible recirculation of puffs that may be transported beyond the receptors and to allow for

upstream influences on the wind field, the meteorological and computational domains should

be larger than this minimum.

The GP80 site is shown in Figure 3

‐ 1. Two arcs of monitors were deployed during the field

experiment at 100 and 600 kilometers from the source. For this analysis, two separate

modeling domains were defined for simulating tracer concentrations on the 100 km and 600

km receptor arcs. For the 100

‐ kilometer arc, a grid extending approximately from 35o N to

36.5o N latitude and from 96o W to 98.5o W longitude was defined.

CALPUFF was operated for the July 8, 1980 GP80 tracer experiment using meteorological inputs

based on CALMET and MMIF. For the CALPUFF simulations using CALMET, a UTM coordinate

system was used to be consistent with past CALPUFF evaluations (Policastro et al., 1986; EPA,

1998a).21 Figure 3

‐ 1. Locations of the release site and the 100 km arc (top left) and 600 km arc (top

right) of monitoring sites along with a close in view of the release site (bottom) for the GP80

tracer experiment.

3.2.1 CALPUFF/CALMET BASE Case Model Configuration

For the CALPUFF/CALMET 100 km arc BASE case scenario, a 42 by 40 horizontal grid with a

10 km grid resolution was used for the meteorological and computational grids. For the 600 km

arc BASE case, the grid extended from approximately 35 o N to 42 o N latitude and from 89 o W to

100 o W longitude using a 44 by 40 horizontal grid with a 20 km grid resolution. In addition, a

220 by 200 horizontal grid with a 4 km grid resolution was also used that encompassed both the

100 km and 600 km arcs.

To adequately characterize the vertical structure of the atmosphere, ten vertical layers were

defined corresponding to layer heights at 0, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1,200, 2,000, 3,000 and

4,000 meters above ground level (AGL). The vertical layer structure conforms to the

recommendations in EPA’s August 2009 Clarification Memorandum on recommended settings

for CALMET modeling (EPA, 2009b)

The CALMET preprocessor utilizes National Weather Service (NWS) meteorological data and on

‐

site data to produce temporally and spatially varying three dimensional wind fields for

CALPUFF. Only NWS data were used for this effort and came from two compact disc (CD) data

sets. The first was the Solar and Meteorological Surface Observation Network (SAMSON)22 compact discs, which were used to obtain the hourly surface observations. The following

surface stations were used for each of the field experiments:

Table 3

‐ 1. Surface meteorological monitoring sites used in the GP80 CALMET modeling.

State City

Arkansas Fort Smith

Illinois Springfield

Kansas Dodge City, Topeka, Wichita

Missouri Columbia, Kansas City, Springfield, St. Louis

Nebraska Grand Island, Omaha, North Platte

Oklahoma Oklahoma City, Tulsa

Texas Amarillo, Dallas

‐ Fort Worth, Lubbock, Wichita Falls

Twice daily upper

‐ air meteorological soundings came from the second set of compact discs, the

Radiosonde Data for North America

. The following stations were used for each of the field

experiments:

Table 3

‐ 2. Radiosonde monitoring sites used in the GP80 CALMET modeling.

State City

Arkansas Little Rock

Illinois Peoria

Kansas Dodge City, Topeka

Missouri Monett

Nebraska Omaha, North Platte

Oklahoma Oklahoma City

Texas Amarillo

Consistent with the August 2009 Clarification Memorandum, some of the CALPUFF/CALMET

sensitivity tests utilized CALMET simulations using prognostic meteorological model output as

the first

‐ guess wind field for CALMET and then perform the CALMET STEP1 procedures to apply

diagnostic effects to the wind fields. CALMET then uses the surface and upper air observations

in the objective analysis (OA) phase that blends the meteorological observations with the STEP1

wind field to produce the STEP2 wind field. This method is often referred to as the “hybrid”

method.

The terrain and GIS land use data on the original CALPUFF CD were used to define gridded land

use data for each field experiment. These data are defined with a resolution of 1/6° latitude

and 1/4° longitude. The program PRELND1.EXE, also provided on the CD, was run to extract the

data from the GIS data base and map the data to the meteorological domain for each field

experiment. The program ELEVAT.EXE (also provided on the CD) was used to process the raw

terrain data into average gridded terrain data. The file of terrain and geophysical parameters

required by CALMET was constructed from the output files generated by ELEVAT and PRELND1

with additional required records inserted manually to create the final forms of the file for GP80

tracer experiment.

One of the primary purposes of the GP80 experiment was to demonstrate the efficacy of

perfluorocarbons as tracers in atmospheric dispersion field studies.

Perfluoromonomethylcyclohexane (PMCH) and perfluorodimethylcyclohexane (PDCH) were

released during this experiment. For the 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation report and the current

analyses, the PDCH emission rate was used in the CALPUFF evaluation since the monitoring23 data appeared to have a more complete record of PDCH concentrations than the other tracers.

Table 3

‐ 3 displays the source characteristics for the PDCH tracer used in the CALPUFF modeling

of the July 8, 1980 GP80 experiment.

Table 3

‐ 3. Source characteristics for the CALPUFF modeling of the July 8, 1980 GP80

experiment.

Source Release

height

(m) Stack

diameter

(m) Exit

velocity

(m/s) Exit temp.

(°K) Total

tracer

released

(kg) Length of

release

(hr) PDCH

emission

rate

(g s ‐ 1 )

Oklahoma 10.0 1.0 a 0.001 Ambient b

(250) 186 3.0 17.22

Notes:

a

– The stack diameter was set to 1 meter in diameter to conform to previous tracer evaluation studies.

b

– The exit temperature was assumed to be the same as ambient atmospheric temperature. CALPUFF checks the

difference between the stack exit temperature and the surface station temperature. If this difference is less than zero,

the difference is set to zero. To insure this condition, an exit temperature of 250 K was input to the model.

In the CALPUFF modeling system, each of the three programs (CALMET, CALPUFF, and

CALPOST) uses a control file of user

‐ selectable options to control the data processing. There

are numerous options in each and several that can result in significant differences. The

following model controls for CALMET and CALPUFF were employed for the analyses with the

tracer data.

3.2.1.1 CALMET Options

The following CALMET control parameters and options were chosen for the BASE CALPUFF

model simulations. The BASE control parameters and options were chosen to be consistent

with two previous CALMET/CALPUFF evaluations (Irwin 1997, and EPA 1998a). The most

important CALMET options relate to the development of the wind field and were set as follows

for the BASE model configuration:

NOOBS = 0 Use surface, overwater, and upper air station data

IWFCOD = 1 Use diagnostic wind model to develop the 3

‐ D wind fields

IFRADJ = 1 Compute Froude number adjustment effects (thermodynamic

blocking effects of terrain)

IKINE = 1 Compute kinematic effects

IOBR = 0 Do NOT use O’Brien procedure for adjusting vertical velocity

IEXTRP = 4 Use similarity theory to extrapolate surface winds to upper layers

IPROG = 0 Do NOT use prognostic wind field model output as input to

diagnostic wind field model (for observations only sensitivity test)

ITPROG = 0 Do NOT use prognostic temperature data output

Mixing heights are important in the estimating ground level concentrations. The CALMET

options that affect mixing heights were set as follows:

IAVEZI = 1 Conduct spatial averaging

MNDAV = 3 100km BASE case

– Maximum search radius (in grid cells) in

averaging process

= 1 600km BASE Case

HAFANG = 30. Half

‐ angle of upwind looking cone for averaging24 ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in upwind averaging

DPTMIN = .001 Minimum potential temperature lapse rate (K/m) in stable layer

above convective mixing height

DZZI = 200 Depth of layer (meters) over which the lapse rate is computed

ZIMIN = 100 100km BASE case

– Minimum mixing height (meters) over land

= 50 600km BASE Case

ZIMAX = 3200 100km BASE case

– Maximum mixing height (meters) over land,

defined to be the top of the modeling domain

= 3000 600km BASE Case

A number of CALMET model control options have no default CALMET values, particularly radii

of influence values for terrain and surface and upper air observations. The CALMET options

that affect radius of influence were set as follows:

RMAX1 = 20 Minimum radius of influence in surface layer (km)

RMAX2 = 50 Minimum radius of influence over land aloft (km)

RMIN = 2 100km BASE case

– Minimum radius of influence in wind field

interpolation (km)

= 0.1 600km BASE Case

TERRAD = 10 Radius of influence of terrain features (km)

RPROG = 0 Weighting factors of prognostic wind field data (km)

A review of the respective CALMET parameters between the 1998 EPA CALMET/CALPUFF

evaluation study using CALMET Version 4.0 and the 600 km BASE case scenario in the current

CALMET/CALPUFF evaluation using CALMET Version 5.8 indicates differences in some CALMET

options. The differences between the two scenarios are presented below in Table 3

‐ 4. All

other major CALMET options for 600 km BASE case scenario matched the original 1998 EPA

analysis. There were no significant differences between the CALMET parameters 100 km BASE

case scenarios for the 1998 (CALMET Version 4.0) and the current evaluation (CALMET Version

5.8).25 Table 3

‐ 4. CALMET Parameters July 8, 1980 GP80 experiment, 1998 and current 600 km

analysis.

CALMET

Option Description 1998 EPA

Setup BASE

Setup

MNDAV Maximum search radius for averaging

mixing heights (# grid cells) 3 1

ZIMIN Minimum overland mixing height (in

meters) 100 50

ZIMAX Maximum overland mixing height (in

meters) 3200 3000

RMIN Minimum radius of influence in wind

field interpolation (in km) 2.0 0.1

3.2.1.2 CALPUFF Control Options

The following CALPUFF control parameters, which are a subset of the control parameters, were

used. These parameters and options were mostly chosen to be consistent with the 1977 INEL

study (Irwin 1997) and 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation (EPA, 1998a) studies. This includes the

use of the slug option (MSLUG

= 1) for the 100 km arc CALPUFF simulations. The use of the slug

option is very non

‐ standard for LRT modeling and inconsistent with the EPA

‐ FLM

recommendations for far

‐ field CALPUFF modeling. As stated on the CALPUFF website 18 :

“A slug is simply an elongated puff. For most CALPUFF applications, the modeling of

emissions as puffs is adequate. The selection of puffs produces very similar results as

compared to the slug option, while resulting in significantly faster computer runtimes.

However, there are some cases where the slug option may be preferred. One such case

is the episodic time

‐ varying emissions, e.g., an accidental release scenario. Another case

would be where transport from the source to receptors of interest is very short (possibly

involving sub

‐ hourly transport times). These cases generally involve demonstration of

causality effects due to specific events in the near ‐ to intermediate

‐ field.”

For the farther out 600 km arc, the slug option was not selected (MSLUG

= 0) for the initial

CALPUFF sensitivity tests even through the slug option was used in the 1997 INEL and 1998 EPA

studies. However, we did investigate the use of the slug option, as well as puff splitting, in a set

of additional CALPUFF sensitivity tests for the 600 km arc.

CALPUFF options for technical options (group 2):

MCTADJ = 0 No terrain adjustment

MCTSG = 0 No subgrid scale complex terrain is modeled

MSLUG = 1 For 100 km BASE case near

‐ field puffs modeled as slugs

MSLUG = 0 For 600 km BASE case modeled as puffs (i.e., no slugs)

MTRANS = 1 Transitional plume rise is modeled

MTIP = 1 Stack tip downwash is modeled

MSHEAR = 0 100 km BASE case

– Vertical wind shear is NOT modeled above

stack top

= 1 600km BASE case

MSPLIT = 0 No puff splitting

18 http://www.src.com/calpuff/FAQ

‐ answers.htm26 MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformations

MWET = 0 No wet removal processes

MDRY = 0 No dry removal processes

MPARTL = 0 100 km BASE case

– No partial plume penetration

= 1 600 km BASE case

MPDF = 0 100 km BASE case

– PDF not used for dispersion under

convective conditions

= 1 600 km BASE case

MREG = 0 No check made to see if options conform to regulatory

Options

Two different values were used for the dispersion parameterization option MDISP:

= 2 Dispersion coefficients from internally calculated sigmas

= 3 PG dispersion coefficients for RURAL areas (PG)

In addition, under MDISP = 2 dispersion option, two different options were used for the

MCTURB option that defines the method used to compute turbulence sigma

‐ v and sigma

‐ w

using micrometeorological variables:

= 1 Standard CALPUFF routines (CAL)

= 2 AERMOD subroutines (AER)

Several miscellaneous dispersion and computational parameters (group 12) were set as follows:

SYTDEP = 550. Horizontal puff size beyond which Heffter equations are

used for sigma

‐ y and sigma

‐ z

MHFTSZ = 0 Do not use Heffter equation for sigma

‐ z

XMXLEN = 0.1 100 km BASE case

– Maximum length of slug (in grid cells)

= 1 600 km BASE case

XSAMLEN = 0.1 100 km BASE case

– Maximum travel distance of puff/slug (in grid

cells) during one sampling step

= 1 600 km BASE case

MXNEW = 199 100 km BASE case

– Maximum number of slugs/puffs released

during one time step

= 99 600 km BASE case

WSCALM = 1.0 100 km BASE case

– Minimum wind speed (m/s) for non

‐ calm

conditions

= 0.5 600 km BASE case

XMAXZI = 3300 100 km BASE case

– Maximum mixing height (meters)

= 6000 600 km BASE case

XMINZI = 20 100 km BASE case

– Minimum mixing height (meters)

= 0 600 km BASE case

SL2PF = 5 100 km BASE case

– Slug

‐ to

‐ puff transition criterion factor (=

sigma

‐ y/slug length)

= 10 600 km BASE case

A review of the respective CALPUFF parameters between the 1998 EPA CALMET/CALPUFF

evaluation study using CALMET Version 4.0 and the 600 km BASE case scenario in the current

CALMET/CALPUFF evaluation using CALPUFF Version 5.8 indicates differences in some

parameters. The differences between the two scenarios are presented below in Table 3

‐ 5. All27 other major CALPUFF options for 600 km BASE case scenario matched the original 1998 EPA

analysis. There were no significant differences between the CALPUFF parameters 100 km BASE

case scenarios for the 1998 (CALPUFF Version 4.0) and the current evaluation (CALPUFF

Version 5.8).

Table 3

‐ 5. CALPUFF Parameters July 8, 1980 GP80 experiment, 1998 and Current 600km

analysis.

CALPUFF

Option Description 1998 EPA

Setup 600KM

BASE

Setup

MSHEAR Vertical wind shear is modeled above stack

top? (0

= No; 1 = Yes) 0 1

MPARTL Partial plume penetration of elevated

inversion? (0

= No; 1 = Yes) 0 1

WSCALM Minimum wind speed (m/s) for non

‐ calm

conditions 1.0 0.5

XMAXZI Maximum mixing height (meters) 3300 3000

XMINZI Minimum mixing height (meters) 20 0

XMXLEN Maximum length of slug (in grid cells) 0.1 1

XSAMLEN Maximum travel distance of puff/slug (in grid

cells) during one sampling step 0.1 1

MXNEW Maximum number of slugs/puffs released

during one time step 199 99

SL2PF Slug

‐ to

‐ puff transition criterion factor

(= sigma

‐ y/slug length) 5.0 10.0

3.2.2 GP80 CALPUFF/CALMET Sensitivity Tests

Table 3

‐ 6 and 3

‐ 7 describe the CALMET/CALPUFF sensitivity tests performed for the modeling

of the 100 km and 600 km arcs of receptors. The BASEA simulations use the same configuration

as used in the 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation report for the 100 km arc simulations, only

updated from CALPUFF Version 4.0 to CALPUFF Version 5.8. For the 600 km arc simulations,

the BASEA used the same configuration as the 1998 EPA study only the near

‐ field slug option

was not used. The CALMET and CALPUFF parameters of the BASE case simulations were

discussed earlier in this section.

The sensitivity simulations are designed to examine the sensitivity of the CALPUFF model

performance to choice of grid resolution in the CALMET meteorological model simulation (10

and 4 km for the 100 km arc of receptors and 20 and 4 km for the 600 km arc of receptors), the

use of and resolution of the MM5 output data used as input to CALMET (none, 12 and 36 km)

and the use of surface and upper

‐ air meteorological observations in CALMET through NOOBS =

0 (“A” series, use surface and upper

‐ air observation), 1 (“B” series, use only surface

observations) and 2 (“C” series, don’t use any meteorological observations).

In addition, for each experiment using different CALMET model configurations, three CALPUFF

dispersion options were examined as shown in Table 3

‐ 8. Two of the CALPUFF dispersion

sensitivity tests using dispersion based on sigma

‐ v and sigma

‐ w turbulence values using the

CALPUFF (CAL) and AERMOD (AER) algorithms. Whereas the third dispersion test (PG) uses

Pasquill

‐ Gifford dispersion coefficients.28 Table 3

‐ 6. CALPUFF/CALMET experiments for the 100 km arc and GP80 July 8, 1980 tracer

experiment.

Experiment CALMET

Grid MM5

Data NOOBS Comment

BASEA 10 km None 0 Original met observations only configuration (no MM5)

EXP1A 10 km 12 km 0 Aug 2009 IWAQM w/10 km grid using 12 km MM5

EXP1B 10 km 12 km 1 Don’t use observed upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP1C 10 km 12 km 2 Don’t use observed surface/upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP2A 4 km 36 km 0 Aug 2009 IWAQM w/ 4 km grid and 36 km MM5

EXP2B 4 km 36 km 1 No upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP2C 4 km 36 km 2 No surface or upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP3A 4 km 12 km 0 Aug 2009 IWAQM w/ 4 km grid and 12 km MM5

EXP3B 4 km 12 km 1 No upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP3C 4 km 12 km 2 No surface or upper

‐ air meteorological data

Table 3

‐ 7. CALPUFF/CALMET experiments for the 600 km arc and GP80 July 8, 1980 tracer

experiment.

Experiment CALMET

Grid MM5

Data NOOBS Comment

BASEA 20 km None 0 Original met observations only configuration (no MM5)

EXP1A 20 km 12 km 0 Aug 2009 IWAQM recommendation using 12 km MM5

EXP1B 20 km 12 km 1 Don’t use observed upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP1C 20 km 12 km 2 Don’t use observed surface/upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP2A 4 km 36 km 0 Aug 2009 IWAQM w/ 4 km grid and 36 km MM5

EXP2B 4 km 36 km 1 No upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP2C 4 km 36 km 2 No surface or upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP3A 4 km 12 km 0 Aug 2009 IWAQM w/ 4 km grid and 12 km MM5

EXP3B 4 km 12 km 1 No upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP3C 4 km 12 km 2 No surface or upper

‐ air meteorological data

Table 3

‐ 8. CALPUFF dispersion options examined in the CALPUFF sensitivity tests.

Experiment MDISP MCTURB Comment

CAL 2 1 Dispersion coefficients from internally calculated sigma

‐ v and

sigma

‐ w using micrometeorological variables and CALPUFF

algorithms

AER 2 2 Dispersion coefficients from internally calculated sigma

‐ v and

sigma

‐ w using micrometeorological variables and AERMOD

algorithms

PG 3

‐‐ PG dispersion coefficients for rural areas and MP coefficients

for urban areas

The CALMET and CALPUFF simulations used for the sensitivity analyses were updated from the

BASE case simulations and use the recommended settings for many variables from the EPA

August 2009 Clarification Memorandum (EPA, 2009b). A summary of CALMET parameters that

changed from the BASE case scenarios for the 100 km and 600 km CALPUFF sensitivity analyses

are presented in Tables 3

‐ 9 and 3

‐ 10. The 100 km CALMET BASE case simulation (BASEA)

matched up with the 1998 EPA study CALMET parameters, but did not match up with the EPA

‐

FLM recommendations in the August 2009 Clarification Memorandum. Other than a few

CALMET parameters, the 600 km CALMET BASE case simulation (BASEA) matched up well with

August 2009 Clarification Memorandum, but not the 1998 EPA study CALMET parameters.29 Table 3

‐ 9. CALMET wind field parameters for July 8, 1980 GP80 experiment, 100 km analysis.

CALMET

Option 2009

EPA

‐ FLM

Default BASEA EXP1A EXP1B EXP1C EXP2A EXP2B EXP2C EXP3A EXP3B EXP3C

NOOBS 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2

ICLOUD 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 3

IKINE 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

IEXTRP

‐ 4 4

‐ 4

‐ 4 1

‐ 4

‐ 4 1

‐ 4

‐ 4 1

IPROG 14 0 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

ITPROG 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2

MNDAV 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

ZIMIN 50 100 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

ZIMAX 3000 3200 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

RMAX1 100 20 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

RMAX2 200 50 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

RMIN 0.1 2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

TERRAD 15 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

ZUPWND 1, 1000 1, 2000 1, 1000 1, 1000 1, 1000 1, 1000 1, 1000 1, 1000 1, 1000 1, 1000 1, 1000

Table 3

‐ 10. CALMET wind field parameters for July 8, 1980 GP80 experiment, 600 km

analysis.

CALMET

Option 2009

EPA

‐ FLM

Default BASEA EXP1A EXP1B EXP1C

NOOBS 0 0 0 1 2

ICLOUD 0 0 0 0 3

IKINE 0 1 0 0 0

IEXTRP

‐ 4 4

‐ 4

‐ 4 1

IPROG 14 0 14 14 14

ITPROG 0 0 0 1 2

RMAX1 100 20 100 100 100

RMAX2 200 50 200 200 200

TERRAD 15 10 20 20 20

3.2.3 CALPUFF/MMIF Sensitivity Tests

With the MMIF software tool designed to pass through and reformat the MM5/WRF

meteorological model output data for input into CALPUFF, there are not as many options

available and hence much fewer sensitivity tests. Note that MMIF adopts the grid resolution

and vertical layer structure of the MM5 model and passes through the meteorological variables

to CALPUFF so only 36 km and 12 km grid resolutions were examined. The three alternative

dispersion options in CALPUFF (CAL, AER and PG) were analyzed using the MMIF 12 km and 36

km CALPUFF inputs. Note that for the 600 km arc CALPUFF/MMIF modeling we found some

issues in one of the CALPUFF runs using the AER dispersion option so do not present any AER

dispersion results for the 600 km arc modeling; given the similarity in CALPUFF performance

using the CAL and AER dispersion options this does not affect the study’s results. In addition,

36 km CALPUFF/MMIF results are also not presented for the 600 km arc modeling.30 Table 3

‐ 11. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests analyzed with the July 8, 1980 GP80 database.

Grid

Resolution MM5 MDISP MCTURB Comment

36 km 36 km 2 1 36 km MM5 with CALPUFF turbulence dispersion (CAL)

36 km 36 km 2 2 36 km MM5 with AERMOD turbulence dispersion (AER)

36 km 36 km 3 36 km MM5 with Pasqual

‐ Gifford dispersion (PG)

12 km 12 km 2 1 12 km MM5 with CALPUFF turbulence dispersion (CAL)

12 km 12 km 2 2 12 km MM5 with AERMOD turbulence dispersion (AER)

12 km 12 km 3 12 km MM5 with Pasqual

‐ Gifford dispersion (PG)

3.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE

The quality assurance (QA) of the CALPUFF modeling system simulations for the GP80 tracer

experiment was assessed by analyzing the CALMET and CALPUFF input and output files and the

dates they were generated. The input file options were compared against the August 2009

EPA

‐ FLM recommended settings for CALMET and the definitions of the sensitivity tests to

assure that the intended parameters were defined. The QA of the MMIF runs was not as

complete because no input files or list files were provided to document the MMIF parameters.

However, since all the MMIF tool does is pass through the MM5 output to CALPUFF there are

not many options available.

The 100 km and 600 km receptor arc CALMET sensitivity simulations used a TERRAD value of 20

km (radius of influence of terrain on wind fields, in kilometers). The 2009 EPA

‐ FLM clarification

memorandum recommends that TERRAD = 15. Four CALMET parameters (BIAS, NSMTH,

NINTR2, and FEXTR2) require a value for each vertical layer processed in CALMET. The 100 km

and 600 km CALMET Base Cases are based on six vertical layers, but the sensitivity simulations

are based on ten vertical layers. The CALMET sensitivity simulations were provided with only

six values for BIAS, NSMTH, NINTR2, and FEXTR2 even though ten vertical layers were

simulated. Therefore, CALMET used default values for the upper four vertical layers (1200 m,

2000 m, 3000 m, and 4000 m).

In addition to the three CALPUFF dispersion options (AERMOD, CALPUFF, and PG), there were

other CALPUFF parameters that differed between the 100 km and 600 km CALPUFF/CALMET

BASE case and sensitivity cases and CALPUFF/MMIF modeling scenarios. Differences in the

CALPUFF parameters used in the 100 km and 600 km receptor arc simulation include:

• All of the CALPUFF 600 km sensitivity runs (CALPUFF/CALMET and CALPUFF/MMIF) and

100 km CALPUFF/MMIF runs were all conducted using only puffs (MSLUG

= 0), but the 100

km CALPUFF/CALMET and 1998 CALPUFF simulations assume near

‐ field slug formation

(MSLUG

= 1).

• CALPUFF 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF runs and all 600 km CALPUFF runs allowed for vertical

wind shear (MSHEAR

= 1), the 100 km BASE case and 100 km CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity

scenarios assume no vertical wind shear. The IWAQM Phase II (1998) guidance

recommends MSHEAR = 0.

• The initial CALPUFF 100 km and 600 km sensitivity tests assumed no puff splitting (MSPLIT

= 0), whereas the IWAQM Phase II (1998) recommends that default puff splitting be

performed (MSPLIT

= 1). This issue was investigated for the 600 km arc using additional

CALPUFF sensitivity tests.31 • CALPUFF 100 km (all dispersion options) and 600 km PG dispersion simulations, CALPUFF

was set

‐ up to not allow for partial plume penetration of inversion layer (MPARTL

= 0). The

IWAQM Phase II (1998) guidance recommends MPARTL = 1.

• CALPUFF 600 km AERMOD and CALPUFF turbulence dispersion simulations, CALPUFF was

set

‐ up to use the Probability Density Function (PDF) option for convective dispersion

(MPDF

= 1). The IWAQM Phase II guidance does not recommend using PDF for convective

dispersion.

• CALPUFF 600 km simulations and 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF simulations use minimum and

maximum mixing height values of 0 m and 6000 m, respectively. The CALPUFF 100 km

BASE case and sensitivity simulations use minimum and maximum mixing height values of

20 m and 3300 m, respectively. The 1998 IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends the

minimum and maximum mixing heights be set equal to 50 m and 3000 m, respectively.

• The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a maximum slug length of

0.1 CALMET grid units (XMXLEN

= 0.1), whereas the 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF simulations

used a maximum length of 1.0 CALMET grid units. The IWAQM Phase II guidance

recommends XMXLEN = 1.

• The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a maximum slug/puff

travel distance of 0.1 grid units per sampling period (XSAMLEN

= 0.1), whereas the 100 km

CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a maximum travel distance of 1.0 grid units. The

IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends XSAMLEN = 1.

• The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a maximum of 199

slugs/puffs released from one source per sampling step (MXNEW

= 199), whereas the 100

km CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a maximum of 99 new slugs/puffs. The IWAQM

Phase II guidance recommends MXNEW = 99.

• The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a maximum of 5 sampling

steps per slug/puff during one time step (MXSAM

= 5), whereas the 100 km

CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a maximum of 99 sampling steps per slug/puff. The

IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends MXSAM = 99.

• The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a minimum sigma

‐ y and

sigma

‐ z value of 0.01 m per new slug/puff (SYMIN

= 0.01 and SZMIN = 0.01), whereas the

100 m CALPUFF/MMIF simulations used a minimum sigma

‐ y and sigma

‐ z value of 1 m per

new slug/puff. The IWAQM Phase II guidance recommends SYMIN = 1 and SZMIN = 1.

• The CALPUFF 100 km BASE case and sensitivity simulations use a minimum wind speed of

1 m/s for non

‐ calm conditions (WSCALM

= 1), whereas the 100 km CALPUFF/MMIF

simulations used a minimum wind speed of 0.5 m/s. The IWAQM Phase II guidance

recommends WSCALM = 0.5.

We noted that the date on the CALMET input control file for the BASEA sensitivity test was later

than the date on the CALMET output file for BASEA. We reran the BASEA CALMET and CALPUFF

sensitivity tests and got slightly different results.

3.4 GP80 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

Previous studies evaluated CALPUFF using the GP80 tracer experiment data using the Irwin

plume fitting evaluation approach (EPA, 1998a). Thus, the same approach was adopted in this

study so we could compare the performance of the newer version of CALPUFF with past32 evaluation studies and evaluate whether new options in CALPUFF (e.g., puff splitting) improve

CALPUFF’s model performance.

3.4.1 CALPUFF GP80 Evaluation for the 100 km Arc of Receptors

Table 3

‐ 12 evaluates the CALPUFF sensitivity tests ability to estimate the timing of the plume

arrival at the 100 km arc of receptors and the duration of time the plume resides on the 100 km

receptor arc. The tracer was observed on the 100 km arc for 5 hours. The 1998 EPA report

CALPUFF modeling matched this well using CALPUFF turbulence (CAL) dispersion and estimated

the tracer remained on the arc one hour longer than observed using the PG dispersion option.

The CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests estimated that the predicted tracer cloud was on the arc

the same amount of time as was observed (5 hours) or within one hour of that duration (i.e.,

within ±20%). With one exception, when the CALPUFF/CALMET estimated that the duration of

time on the arc was off by one hour, it was underestimating the amount of time on the arc (i.e.,

4 instead of 5 hours). The exception to this was the EXP2A_PG scenario that estimates the

tracer plume was on the 100 km arc for 6 hours.

The CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests had the tracer plume arriving at the 100 km arc one hour

late and either leaving on time (12 km MMIF) or leaving an hour early. This results in the

CALPUF/MMIF sensitivity test underestimating the observed time on the arc by 1 (12 km MMIF)

to 2 (36 km MMIF) hours.33 Table 3

‐ 12. Tracer plume arrival and duration statistics for the GP80 100 km arc.

Scenario Arrival on Arc Leave Arc Duration on Arc

Day Hour Day Hour Hours Difference

Observed 190 16 190 20 5

1998 EPA Report

1998EPA_PG 190 16 190 21 6 20%

1998_CAL 190 16 190 20 5 0%

CALPUFF/CALMET

BASEA_AER 190 16 190 20 5 0%

BASEA_CAL 190 16 190 20 5 0%

BASEA_PG 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP1A_AER 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP1A_CAL 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP1A_PG 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP1B_AER 190 16 190 19 4

‐ 20%

EXP1B_CAL 190 16 190 19 4

‐ 20%

EXP1B_PG 190 16 190 19 4

‐ 20%

EXP1C_AER 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

EXP1C_CAL 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

EXP1C_PG 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

EXP2A_AER 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP2A_CAL 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP2A_PG 190 16 190 21 6 20%

EXP2B_AER 190 16 190 19 4

‐ 20%

EXP2B_CAL 190 16 190 19 4

‐ 20%

EXP2B_PG 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP2C_AER 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

EXP2C_CAL 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

EXP2C_PG 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

EXP3A_AER 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP3A_CAL 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP3A_PG 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP3B_AER 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP3B_CAL 190 16 190 20 5 0%

EXP3B_PG 190 16 190 19 4

‐ 20%

EXP3C_AER 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

EXP3C_CAL 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

EXP3C_PG 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

CALPUFF/MMIF

MMIF12_AER 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

MMIF12_CAL 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

MMIF12_PG 190 17 190 20 4

‐ 20%

MMIF36KM_AER 190 17 190 19 3

‐ 40%

MMIF36KM_CAL 190 17 190 19 3

‐ 40%

MMIF36KM_PG 190 17 190 19 3

‐ 40%34 Tables 3

‐ 13 and Figures 3

‐ 2 through 3

‐ 6 display the plume fitting model performance statistics

for the various CALPUFF sensitivity tests and the 100 km arc of receptors in the GP80 field

experiment and compares them with the previous results as reported by EPA (1998a). The

fitted predicted and observed plume centerline concentrations (Cmax) and the percent

differences, expressed as a mean normalized bias (MNB), are shown in Table 3

‐ 13 with the

MNB results reproduced in Figure 3

‐ 2. Similar results are seen for the predicted and observed

maximum concentrations at any monitoring site along the arc (Omax) that are shown in Table

3

‐ 13 and Figure 3

‐ 3. The use of either the CALPUFF (CAL) or AERMOD (AER) algorithms for the

turbulence dispersion doesn’t appear the affect the maximum concentration model

performance. Most CALPUFF sensitivity simulations overestimate the observed Cmax value by

over 40%, with the 1998EPA_PG and EXP2C_PG simulations overestimating the observed Cmax

value by over a factor of 2 (> 100%). The overestimation of the observed Omax value is even

greater, exceeding 60% for most of the CALPUFF simulations. The PG dispersion produces

much higher maximum concentrations compared to CAL/AER dispersion for experiments EXP2B

and EXP2C. But the PG maximum concentrations are comparable or even a little lower than

CAL/AER for the other experiments; although in the 1998 EPA study the PG dispersion option

produced much higher maximum concentrations. The EXP1B, EXP2B and EXP3B CALPUFF

simulations do not exhibit the large overestimation bias of Cmax and Omax as seen in the other

experiments and are closest to reproducing the observed maximum concentrations on the 100

km arc, matching the observed values to within ±25%; note that the “B” series of experiments

use MM5 data (12, 36 and 12 km for EXP1, EXP2 and EXP3, respectively) but only surface and

no upper

‐ air meteorological observations. The CALPUFF/MMIF simulation using the 12 km

MM5 data and PG dispersion also reproduced the maximum concentrations to within ±25%.

Most of the CALPUFF sensitivity simulations underestimate the plume spread ( σ y ) by 20% to

35% (Figure 3

‐ 4), which is consistent with overestimating the observed maximum concentration

(i.e., insufficient dispersion leading to overestimation of the maximum concentrations). The

exceptions to this are again the “B” series of CALPUFF/CALMET experiments and

MMIF12KM_PG. Another exception to this is the EPA1998_PG simulation which agrees with

the observed plume spread amount quite well; the explanation for this is unclear and seems

inconsistent with the fact that 1998BASE_PG overestimated the observed Cmax/Omax values.

The 1998EPA_PG results were taken from the EPA (1998a) report and could not be verified or

quality assured so we cannot explain this discrepancy.

The deviations between the observed and predicted plume centerline along the 100 km arc of

receptors in degrees is shown in Figure 3

‐ 5. The modeled plume centerline tends to be 0 to14

degrees off from the observed plume centerline. The best performing model configuration for

the plume centerline location is the BASEA series that uses CALMET with observed surface and

upper

‐ air meteorological data but no MM5 data. The CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests that

use surface and upper

‐ air (“A” series) and just surface (“B” series) meteorological observations

tend to perform best for the plume centerline location, whereas the sensitivity tests that uses

no meteorological observations (“C” series) performs the worse, with the plume centerline

tending to be 10 to 14 degrees too far west on the 100 km arc for the “C” series of

CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests. The CALPUFF/MMIF runs, which also do not include any

meteorological observations, also tend to have plume centerlines that are 6 to 12 degrees too

far to the west.

Most of the CALPUFF sensitivity tests have cross wind integrated concentrations (CWIC) that

are within ±20% of the observed value along the 100 km arc (Figure 3

‐ 6 and Table 5

‐ 13). The35 exceptions to this are the EPA1998_PG simulation, the BASEA series of simulations, EXP2A_PG,

EXP2B_PG and EXP2C_PG. In general, the CAL and AER CALPUFF dispersion options are

performing much better for the CWIC statistics along the 100 km arc than the PG dispersion

option.

Table 3

‐ 13. CALPUFF model performance statistics using the Irwin plume fitting evaluation

approach for the GP80 100 km arc of receptors, the EPA 1998 CALPUFF V4.0 modeling and the

CALPUFF sensitivity tests.

CALPUFF

Sensitivity

Test Cmax Omax Sigma

‐ y Plume Centerline CWIC

(ppt) MNB (ppt) MNB (m) MNB (degrees) Diff (ppt

‐ m) MNB

Observed 1.287 1.052 9,059 361.0 29,220

EPA 1998

PG 2.700 110% 2.600 147% 9,000

‐ 1% 357.0

‐ 4.0 61,000 109%

Similarity 1.900 48% 1.800 71% 6,900

‐ 24% 360.0

‐ 1.0 33,000 13%

CALPUFF/CALMET

BASEA_AER 2.221 73% 2.040 94% 7,136

‐ 21% 361.4 0.4 39,720 36%

BASEA_CAL 2.214 72% 2.034 93% 7,165

‐ 21% 361.4 0.4 39,770 36%

BASEA_PG 2.126 65% 1.934 84% 8,827

‐ 3% 359.8

‐ 1.2 47,050 61%

EXP1A_AER 2.086 62% 2.045 94% 5,977

‐ 34% 357.1

‐ 3.9 31,260 7%

EXP1A_CAL 2.088 62% 2.046 94% 5,999

‐ 34% 357.0

‐ 4.0 31,390 7%

EXP1A_PG 1.885 46% 1.839 75% 6,438

‐ 29% 358.3

‐ 2.7 30,420 4%

EXP1B_AER 1.407 9% 1.303 24% 8,492

‐ 6% 358.8

‐ 2.2 29,940 2%

EXP1B_CAL 1.414 10% 1.313 25% 8,478

‐ 6% 358.8

‐ 2.2 30,050 3%

EXP1B_PG 1.291 0% 1.217 16% 8,956

‐ 1% 359.7

‐ 1.3 28,980

‐ 1%

EXP1C_AER 1.979 54% 1.937 84% 6,587

‐ 27% 348.1

‐ 12.9 32,670 12%

EXP1C_CAL 1.988 54% 1.945 85% 6,590

‐ 27% 348.0

‐ 13.0 32,840 12%

EXP1C_PG 2.016 57% 1.983 88% 6,041

‐ 33% 349.4

‐ 11.6 30,530 4%

EXP2A_AER 2.047 59% 1.996 90% 6,209

‐ 31% 357.2

‐ 3.8 31,860 9%

EXP2A_CAL 2.049 59% 1.999 90% 6,236

‐ 31% 357.1

‐ 3.9 32,020 10%

EXP2A_PG 2.013 56% 2.260 115% 11,330 25% 351.2

‐ 9.8 57,180 96%

EXP2B_AER 1.265

‐ 2% 1.145 9% 9,033 0% 359.4

‐ 1.6 28,630

‐ 2%

EXP2B_CAL 1.269

‐ 1% 1.152 10% 9,030 0% 359.4

‐ 1.6 28,710

‐ 2%

EXP2B_PG 1.811 41% 2.034 93% 9,161 1% 357.6

‐ 3.4 41,590 42%

EXP2C_AER 2.138 66% 2.106 100% 6,021

‐ 34% 350.8

‐ 10.2 32,270 10%

EXP2C_CAL 2.144 67% 2.112 101% 6,026

‐ 33% 350.7

‐ 10.3 32,380 11%

EXP2C_PG 2.938 128% 2.897 175% 6,044

‐ 33% 349.4

‐ 11.6 44,510 52%

EXP3A_AER 2.042 59% 1.992 89% 6,212

‐ 31% 356.7

‐ 4.3 31,800 9%

EXP3A_CAL 2.048 59% 1.998 90% 6,238

‐ 31% 356.5

‐ 4.5 32,030 10%

EXP3A_PG 1.827 42% 1.766 68% 6,805

‐ 25% 358.0

‐ 3.0 31,160 7%

EXP3B_AER 1.274

‐ 1% 1.228 17% 8,928

‐ 1% 357.9

‐ 3.1 28,520

‐ 2%

EXP3B_CAL 1.297 1% 1.247 19% 8,828

‐ 3% 357.8

‐ 3.2 28,700

‐ 2%

EXP3B_PG 1.011

‐ 21% 1.140 8% 11,010 22% 359.7

‐ 1.3 27,900

‐ 5%

EXP3C_AER 1.949 51% 1.911 82% 6,612

‐ 27% 347.4

‐ 13.6 32,300 11%

EXP3C_CAL 1.965 53% 1.927 83% 6,615

‐ 27% 347.3

‐ 13.7 32,590 12%

EXP3C_PG 1.999 55% 1.971 87% 6,085

‐ 33% 349.0

‐ 12.0 30,500 4%

CALPUFF/MMIF

MMIF12KM_AER 1.872 45% 1.836 75% 6,811

‐ 25% 349.5

‐ 11.5 31,970 9%

MMIF12KM_CAL 1.897 47% 1.860 77% 6,805

‐ 25% 349.3

‐ 11.7 32,350 11%

MMIF12KM_PG 1.468 14% 1.318 25% 9,574 6% 350.3

‐ 10.7 35,230 21%

MMIF36KM_AER 1.837 43% 1.811 72% 6,788

‐ 25% 353.2

‐ 7.8 31,250 7%

MMIF36KM_CAL 1.860 45% 1.832 74% 6,768

‐ 25% 353.1

‐ 7.9 31,550 8%

MMIF36KM_PG 1.608 25% 1.567 49% 7,055

‐ 22% 355.1

‐ 5.9 28,440

‐ 3%36 Figure 3

‐ 2. Percent difference (mean normalized bias) between the predicted and observed

fitted plume centerline concentration (Cmax) for GP80 100 km receptor arc and the CALPUFF

sensitivity tests. 

### ‐ 40% ‐ 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PGEXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PG



### ‐ 40% ‐ 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%EXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_AERMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PGMMIF36KM_AERMMIF36KM_CALMMIF36KM_PG37 Figure 3

‐ 3. Percent difference (mean normalized bias) between the predicted and observed

maximum concentration at any receptor/monitor (Omax) for GP80 100 km receptor arc and

the CALPUFF sensitivity tests. 

### 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PGEXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PG



### 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%EXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_AERMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PGMMIF36KM_AERMMIF36KM_CALMMIF36KM_PG38 Figure 3

‐ 4. Percent difference (mean normalized bias) between the predicted and observed

plume spread ( σ y ) for GP80 100 km receptor arc and the CALPUFF sensitivity tests. 

### ‐ 40% ‐ 30% ‐ 20% ‐ 10% 0% 10% 20% 30%EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PGEXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PG



### ‐ 40% ‐ 30% ‐ 20% ‐ 10% 0% 10% 20% 30%EXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_AERMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PGMMIF36KM_AERMMIF36KM_CALMMIF36KM_PG39 Figure 3

‐ 5. Difference in predicted and observed location of plume centerline (degrees) for

the GP10 100 km receptor arc and the CALPUFF sensitivity tests. 

### ‐ 14.0 ‐ 12.0 ‐ 10.0

‐ 8.0 ‐ 6.0 ‐ 4.0 ‐ 2.0

0.0 2.0EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PGEXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PG



### ‐ 14.0 ‐ 12.0 ‐ 10.0

‐ 8.0 ‐ 6.0 ‐ 4.0 ‐ 2.0 0.0 2.0EXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_AERMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PGMMIF36KM_AERMMIF36KM_CALMMIF36KM_PG40 Figure 3

‐ 6. Percent difference (mean normalized bias) between the predicted and observed

cross wind integrated concentration (CWIC) for the GP10 100 km receptor arc and the

CALPUFF sensitivity tests.

3.4.2 CALPUFF GP80 Evaluation for the 600 km Arc of Receptors

Table 3

‐ 14 lists the predicted and observed plume arrival and exit time statistics from the 600

km arc of receptors and the duration of time the tracer resides on the 600 km arc for the initial

CALPUFF sensitivity tests. Note that the observed tracer was found on the 600 km arc during

the first sampling period (hour 2 on Julian Day 191) so the observed tracer may have arrived

earlier than that. As explained by EPA (1998a), the observed tracer arrived earlier than

expected due to the presence of a low

‐ level jet that was not anticipated. Thus, the observed 12

hour tracer duration on the 600 km receptor arc that assumes it arrived during the first

sampling interval at hour 2 could be an underestimate of the actual tracer residence time on

the 600 km arc.

Figure 3

‐ 7 displays the percent differences in the tracer duration time on the 600 km arc for the

initial CALPUFF 600 km sensitivity tests. For most of the initial CALPUFF sensitivity tests, the

tracer duration time on the 600 km receptor arc is approximately half (5

‐ 6 hours) of what was

observed (12 hours). This is in contrast to the 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation runs that overstate ‐ 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PGEXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PG

‐ 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%EXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_AERMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PGMMIF36KM_AERMMIF36KM_CALMMIF36KM_PG41 the duration the tracer resides on the 600 km arc, with values of 14 hours (1998EPA_PG) and

13 hours (1998EPA_CAL). Since the 1998 EPA CALPUFF runs estimated that the tracer arrives

after the sampling started (hour 3), then this is a true overstatement of the tracer residence

time and not an artifact of the tracer sampling starting after, or at the same time, the observed

tracer arrived at the arc. There are a couple exceptions to the initial CALPUFF simulations

performed in this study that understated the observed tracer duration on the arc by

approximately a factor of 2, which are discussed below.

The BASEA_PG scenario estimates that the tracer is on the arc for 12 hours, the same as

the observed. However, it estimates the tracer leaves three hours earlier (hour 14) than

observed (hour 11). Why the BASEA_PG tracer plume time statistics are so different from

the two companion turbulence dispersion CALPUFF sensitivity tests (BASEA_CAL and

BASEA_AER) is unclear. The same meteorological fields were used in the three BASEA

CALPUFF sensitivity tests and the only difference was in the dispersion options. This large

difference in the CALPUFF predicted tracer residence time due to use of the PG versus CAL

or AER dispersion options (12 hours versus 6

‐ 7 hours) was not seen in any of the other

CALPUFF sensitivity experiment configurations. Although use of the PG dispersion

sometimes increases the estimated tracer residence time on the arc by one hour in some

of the CALPUFF sensitivity tests (Table 3

‐ 14).

The EXP2C series of experiments have estimated tracer plume duration times (11

‐ 13

hours) that is comparable to what was observed. EXP2C uses 36 km MM5 data and

CALMET was run using a 4 km grid resolution with no meteorological observations (NOOBS

= 2). When meteorological observations are added, either surface data alone (EXP2B) or

surface and upper

‐ air measurements (EXP2A), the tracer duration statistics degrades to

only 5 to 8 hours on the arc. It is interesting to note that all of the “C” series of

experiments (i.e., use of no meteorological observations in CALMET) exhibit better plume

residence time statistics than the experiments that used meteorological observations

(with the exception of BASEA_PG discussed previously). But only experiment EXP2C (and

BASEA_PG) using 36 km MM5 data and CALMET run with 4 km grid resolution was able to

replicate the observed tracer residence time.

Most of the initial CALPUFF sensitivity tests were unable to reproduce the observed tracer

residence time on the 600 km arc, as was done in the EPA 1998 study using earlier versions of

CALPUFF. Even the BASEA_CAL sensitivity test, which was designed to be mostly consistent

with the 1998EPA_CAL simulation, estimated tracer plume residence time that was half of what

was observed and estimated by the 1998EPA_CAL simulation. In addition to using difference

versions of the CALPUFF model (Version 4.0 versus 5.8), the BASEA_CAL simulation also did not

invoke the slug option as was used in 1998EPA_CAL (MSLUG

= 1). The use of the slug option is

designed for near

‐ source applications and is not typically used in LRT dispersion modeling, so in

this study the initial CALPUFF sensitivity tests did not use the slug option for modeling of the

600 km arc. The effect of the slug option is investigated in additional CALPUFF sensitivity tests

discussed later in this Chapter.42 Figure 3

‐ 7. Percent difference in the predicted and observed duration of time tracer is

residing on the GP80 600 km arc for the CALPUFF sensitivity tests using puff model

formulation and no puff splitting. ‐ 70% ‐ 60% ‐ 50% ‐ 40% ‐ 30% ‐ 20% ‐ 10%

0% 10% 20%1998EPA_PG1998EPA_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CAL

‐ 70% ‐ 60% ‐ 50% ‐ 40% ‐ 30% ‐ 20% ‐ 10%

0% 10% 20%EXP2A_PGEXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PGEXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12_CALMMIF12_PG43 Table 3

‐ 14. Tracer plume arrival and duration statistics for the GP80 600 km arc and the

initial CALPUFF sensitivity tests.

Scenario Arrival on Arc Leave Arc Duration on Arc

(Julian

Day) Hour

(LST) (Julian

Day) Hour (LST) (Hours) Difference

(%)

Observed 191 2 191 14 12

1998EPA_PG 191 3 191 17 14 17%

1998EPA_CAL 191 3 191 16 13 8%

CALPUFF/CALMET

BASEA_AER 191 2 191 7 6

‐ 50%

BASEA_CAL 191 2 191 8 7

‐ 42%

BASEA_PG 191 0 191 11 12 0%

EXP1A_AER 191 2 191 6 5

‐ 58%

EXP1A_CAL 191 2 191 6 5

‐ 58%

EXP1A_PG 191 2 191 6 5

‐ 58%

EXP1B_AER 191 1 191 5 5

‐ 58%

EXP1B_CAL 191 1 191 5 5

‐ 58%

EXP1B_PG 191 1 191 4 4

‐ 67%

EXP1C_AER 191 3 191 8 6

‐ 50%

EXP1C_CAL 191 3 191 8 6

‐ 50%

EXP1C_PG 191 2 191 8 7

‐ 42%

EXP2A_AER 191 2 191 6 5

‐ 58%

EXP2A_CAL 191 2 191 6 5

‐ 58%

EXP2A_PG 191 2 191 9 8

‐ 33%

EXP2B_AER 191 1 191 6 6

‐ 50%

EXP2B_CAL 191 1 191 6 6

‐ 50%

EXP2B_PG 191 1 191 6 6

‐ 50%

EXP2C_AER 191 0 191 10 11

‐ 8%

EXP2C_CAL 191 0 191 10 11

‐ 8%

EXP2C_PG 191 0 191 12 13 8%

EXP3A_AER 191 2 191 6 5

‐ 58%

EXP3A_CAL 191 2 191 6 5

‐ 58%

EXP3A_PG 191 2 191 6 5

‐ 58%

EXP3B_AER 191 1 191 5 5

‐ 58%

EXP3B_CAL 191 1 191 5 5

‐ 58%

EXP3B_PG 191 1 191 6 6

‐ 50%

EXP3C_AER 191 2 191 9 8

‐ 33%

EXP3C_CAL 191 2 191 9 8

‐ 33%

EXP3C_PG 191 2 191 9 8

‐ 33%

CALPUFF/MMIF

MMIF12_CAL 191 3 191 8 6

‐ 50%

MMIF12_PG 191 2 191 8 7

‐ 42%44 The fitted Gaussian plume statistics for the GP80 600 receptor arc and the initial CALPUFF

sensitivity tests are shown in Table 3

‐ 15, with the percent differences (or angular offset for the

plume centerline location) between the model predictions and observations also shown

graphically in Figures 3

‐ 8 through 3

‐ 12. Unlike the CALPUFF performance for the 100 km arc

that mostly overestimated the fitted plume centerline (Cmax) and observed maximum

concentrations at any receptor (Omax), the CALPUFF sensitivity tests under

‐ estimate the

Cmax/Omax values for the 600 km arc by 40% to 80% (Table 3

‐ 15 and Figures 3

‐ 8 and 3

‐ 9). The

Cmax/Omax underestimation bias is lower (

‐ 40% to

‐ 60%) with the “C” series (i.e., no

meteorological observations in CALMET) of CALPUFF sensitivity tests. The CALPUFF sensitivity

tests overstate the amount of plume spread ( σ y ) along the 600 km receptor arc compared to

the plume that is fitted to the observations (Figure 3

‐ 10). The “A” and “B” series of CALPUFF

experiments using the turbulence dispersion (CAL and AER) tend to overestimate the plume

spread along the 600 km arc by ~50% with the “C” series overestimating plume spread by

~100%. For many of the experiments, use of the PG dispersion option greatly exacerbates the

plume spread overestimation bias with overestimation amounts above 250% for EPA1998_PG

and its related BASEA_PG scenarios. Given the similarity of the “C” series (CALMET with no

meteorological observations) and MMIF CALPUFF sensitivity simulations, it is not surprising that

the MMIF runs also overestimate plume spread by ~100%.

The predicted plume centerline angular offset from the observed value has an easterly bias of 9

to 19 degrees (Figure 3

‐ 12). The “A” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity runs tend to have

larger (> 15 degrees) plume centerline offsets than the “B” and “C” series of experiments,

indicating that using upper

‐ air meteorological observations in CALMET tends to worsen the

plume centerline predictions in the CALPUFF sensitivity runs. Surprisingly, the CALPUFF/MMIF

sensitivity runs, which also do not use the upper

‐ air meteorological measurements, have

angular offsets in excess of 15 degrees.

The observed cross wind integrated concentration (CWIC) across the plume at the 600 km arc is

matched better by the CALPUFF sensitivity tests than the maximum (Cmax/Omax)

concentrations (Table 3

‐ 15 and Figure 3

‐ 12). The EPA1998_PG and EPA1998_CAL overestimate

the CWIC by 30% and 15%, respectively. However, the BASEA_PG and BASEA_CAL experiments,

which are designed to emulate the EPA 1998 CALPUFF runs, underestimate the CWIC by

‐ 14%

and

‐ 38%, respectively. The use of meteorological observations in CALMET appears to have the

biggest effect on the CALPUFF CWIC performance with the “A” series (use both surface and

upper

‐ air observations) have the largest CWIC underestimation bias and the CALPUFF CWIC

performance statistics as upper

‐ air (“B” series) and then surface and upper

‐ air (“C” series) are

removed from the CALPUFF modeling. The CALPUFF/MMIF runs underestimated the CWIC by

approximately

‐ 30%.45 Table 3

‐ 15. CALPUFF model performance statistics using the Irwin plume fitting evaluation

approach for the GP80 600 km arc of receptors for the EPA 1998 CALPUFF V4.0 modeling and

the current study CALPUFF V5.8 sensitivity tests.

CALPUFF

Sensitivity

Test Cmax Omax Sigma

‐ y Centerline CWIC

(ppt) MNB (ppt) MNB (m) MNB (deg) Diff (ppt

‐ m) MNB

Observed 0.3152 0.3068 16,533 369.06 13,060

1998EPA_PG 0.1100

‐ 65% 0.1300

‐ 58% 64,900 293% 25.00 15.94 17,000 30%

1998EPA_CAL 0.1400

‐ 56% 0.1300

‐ 58% 42,600 158% 24.00 14.94 15,000 15%

CALPUFF/CALMET

BASEA_AER 0.1024

‐ 68% 0.1000

‐ 67% 27,780 68% 29.43 20.37 7,133

‐ 45%

BASEA_CAL 0.0875

‐ 72% 0.0817

‐ 73% 36,870 123% 27.55 18.49 8,084

‐ 38%

BASEA_PG 0.0763

‐ 76% 0.0780

‐ 75% 58,780 256% 23.74 14.68 11,240

‐ 14%

EXP1A_AER 0.1004

‐ 68% 0.0985

‐ 68% 25,490 54% 27.39 18.33 6,414

‐ 51%

EXP1A_CAL 0.1020

‐ 68% 0.0997

‐ 68% 25,500 54% 27.30 18.24 6,520

‐ 50%

EXP1A_PG 0.0991

‐ 69% 0.0969

‐ 68% 25,280 53% 28.12 19.06 6,277

‐ 52%

EXP1B_AER 0.1141

‐ 64% 0.1106

‐ 64% 34,040 106% 18.91 9.85 9,739

‐ 25%

EXP1B_CAL 0.1168

‐ 63% 0.1136

‐ 63% 33,600 103% 18.77 9.71 9,840

‐ 25%

EXP1B_PG 0.1117

‐ 65% 0.1085

‐ 65% 29,660 79% 21.76 12.70 8,304

‐ 36%

EXP1C_AER 0.1388

‐ 56% 0.1365

‐ 56% 34,660 110% 19.01 9.95 12,060

‐ 8%

EXP1C_CAL 0.1412

‐ 55% 0.1387

‐ 55% 35,070 112% 18.54 9.48 12,410

‐ 5%

EXP1C_PG 0.1313

‐ 58% 0.1283

‐ 58% 32,400 96% 20.06 11.00 10,660

‐ 18%

EXP2A_AER 0.1068

‐ 66% 0.1046

‐ 66% 24,520 48% 27.72 18.66 6,565

‐ 50%

EXP2A_CAL 0.1073

‐ 66% 0.1052

‐ 66% 24,600 49% 27.57 18.51 6,614

‐ 49%

EXP2A_PG 0.1204

‐ 62% 0.1180

‐ 62% 39,900 141% 24.41 15.35 12,040

‐ 8%

EXP2B_AER 0.1474

‐ 53% 0.1463

‐ 52% 25,520 54% 19.37 10.31 9,426

‐ 28%

EXP2B_CAL 0.1539

‐ 51% 0.1516

‐ 51% 24,230 47% 19.12 10.06 9,346

‐ 28%

EXP2B_PG 0.1007

‐ 68% 0.1149

‐ 63% 42,590 158% 21.27 12.21 10,750

‐ 18%

EXP2C_AER 0.1603

‐ 49% 0.1648

‐ 46% 35,810 117% 21.55 12.49 14,390 10%

EXP2C_CAL 0.1660

‐ 47% 0.1712

‐ 44% 35,330 114% 21.47 12.41 14,700 13%

EXP2C_PG 0.1842

‐ 42% 0.1736

‐ 43% 40,850 147% 19.35 10.29 18,860 44%

EXP3A_AER 0.1075

‐ 66% 0.1048

‐ 66% 24,370 47% 26.82 17.76 6,568

‐ 50%

EXP3A_CAL 0.1079

‐ 66% 0.1057

‐ 66% 24,510 48% 26.70 17.64 6,630

‐ 49%

EXP3A_PG 0.1041

‐ 67% 0.1015

‐ 67% 24,180 46% 27.82 18.76 6,312

‐ 52%

EXP3B_AER 0.1332

‐ 58% 0.1305

‐ 57% 24,030 45% 18.54 9.48 8,025

‐ 39%

EXP3B_CAL 0.1357

‐ 57% 0.1327

‐ 57% 24,050 45% 18.41 9.35 8,179

‐ 37%

EXP3B_PG 0.0733

‐ 77% 0.0655

‐ 79% 38,960 136% 23.12 14.06 7,160

‐ 45%

EXP3C_AER 0.1470

‐ 53% 0.1436

‐ 53% 33,260 101% 18.33 9.27 12,250

‐ 6%

EXP3C_CAL 0.1485

‐ 53% 0.1454

‐ 53% 33,210 101% 18.38 9.32 12,360

‐ 5%

EXP3C_PG 0.1380

‐ 56% 0.1360

‐ 56% 31,260 89% 20.80 11.74 10,820

‐ 17%

CALPUFF/MMIF

MMIF12KM_CAL 0.1029

‐ 67% 0.1012

‐ 67% 34,290 107% 26.43 17.37 8,842

‐ 32%

MMIF12KM_PG 0.0956

‐ 70% 0.0887

‐ 71% 39,120 137% 24.89 15.83 9,371

‐ 28%46 Figure 3

‐ 8. Percent difference (mean normalized bias) between the predicted and observed

fitted plume centerline concentration (Cmax) for GP80 600 km receptor arc and the CALPUFF

sensitivity tests. 

### ‐ 80% ‐ 70% ‐ 60% ‐ 50% ‐ 40% ‐ 30% ‐ 20% ‐ 10% 0%EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PG



### ‐ 80% ‐ 70% ‐ 60% ‐ 50% ‐ 40% ‐ 30% ‐ 20% ‐ 10% 0%EXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PGEXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PG47 Figure 3

‐ 9. Percent difference (mean normalized bias) between the predicted and observed

maximum concentration at any receptor/monitor (Omax) for GP80 600 km receptor arc and

the CALPUFF sensitivity tests. 

### ‐ 80% ‐ 70% ‐ 60% ‐ 50% ‐ 40% ‐ 30% ‐ 20% ‐ 10% 0%EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PG



### ‐ 80% ‐ 70% ‐ 60% ‐ 50% ‐ 40% ‐ 30% ‐ 20% ‐ 10% 0%EXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PGEXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PG48 Figure 3

‐ 10. Percent difference (mean normalized bias) between the predicted and observed

plume spread ( σ y ) for GP80 600 km receptor arc and the CALPUFF sensitivity tests. 

### 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PG



### 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%EXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PGEXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PG49 Figure 3

‐ 11. Difference in predicted and observed location of plume centerline (degrees) for

the GP10 600 km receptor arc and the CALPUFF sensitivity tests. 

### 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PG



### 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00EXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PGEXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PG50 Figure 3

‐ 12. Percent difference (mean normalized bias) between the predicted and observed

cross wind integrated concentration (CWIC) for the GP10 600 km receptor arc and the

CALPUFF sensitivity tests. 

### ‐ 60% ‐ 40% ‐ 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%EPA1998_PGEPA1998_CALBASEA_AERBASEA_CALBASEA_PGEXP1A_AEREXP1A_CALEXP1A_PGEXP1B_AEREXP1B_CALEXP1B_PGEXP1C_AEREXP1C_CALEXP1C_PGEXP2A_AEREXP2A_CALEXP2A_PG



### ‐ 60% ‐ 40% ‐ 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%EXP2B_AEREXP2B_CALEXP2B_PGEXP2C_AEREXP2C_CALEXP2C_PGEXP3A_AEREXP3A_CALEXP3A_PGEXP3B_AEREXP3B_CALEXP3B_PGEXP3C_AEREXP3C_CALEXP3C_PGMMIF12KM_CALMMIF12KM_PG51 3.4.3 SLUG and Puff Splitting Sensitivity Tests for the 600 km Arc

One issue of concern with the initial CALPUFF sensitivity tests was the large differences

between the estimated residence time of the tracer on the 600 km receptor arc in the EPA 1998

and current CALPUFF simulations using the CALPUFF (CAL) turbulence dispersion options when

the same meteorological observations are used as input into CALPUFF. The 1998EPA_CAL

CALPUFF sensitivity simulation estimated that the tracer would remain on the 600 km receptor

arc for 13 hours, which compares favorably with what was observed (12 hours) but is almost

double what the BASEA_CAL simulation estimated (7 hours). In addition to updates to the

CALMET and CALPUFF models that have occurred over the last decade, a major difference in

the 1998 EPA and current CALPUFF 600 km arc simulations was that the 1998 EPA CALPUFF

modeling used the near

‐ source slug option, whereas the current analysis did not. Another

major difference between the version of CALPUFF used in the 1998 EPA and current study was

that CALPUFF now has the ability to perform puff splitting. In fact, it was the presence of puff

splitting in CALPUFF that caused EPA to comment that CALPUFF may be applicable to distances

further downwind than 300 km in the 2003 air quality modeling guideline revision that led to

CALPUFF being the recommended long

‐ range transport model for chemically inert pollutants

(EPA, 2003).

To investigate this issue, a series of slug and puff splitting sensitivity tests were carried out

using the BASEA_CAL CALPUFF/CALMET configuration by incrementally adding the near

‐ source

slug option (MSLUG

= 1) and puff splitting option (MSPLIT

= 1) to the BASEA_CAL model

configuration. CALPUFF slug and puff splitting sensitivity tests were also carried out using the

MMIF12_CAL and MMIF12_PG model configurations. Two types of puff splitting sensitivity

tests were carried out:

• Default Puff Splitting (DPS) whereby the vertical puff splitting flag was turned on for just

hour 17 (i.e., IRESPLIT is equal to 1 for just hour 17 and is 0 the other hours); and

• All hours Puff Splitting (APS) that turned on the vertical puff splitting flag for all hours of

the day (i.e., IRESPLIT has 24 values of 1).

Table 3

‐ 16 displays the tracer residence time statistic on the 600 km receptor arc for the slug

and puff splitting sensitivity tests. Using the puff model formulation and no puff splitting

(BASEA_CAL), CALPUFF estimates that the tracer resides on the 600 km arc for 7 hours, which is

‐ 42% less than observed (12 hours). Using all hours puff splitting in CALPUFF, but still using the

puff model formation (BASEA_APS_CAL), does not affect the estimated plume residence time

statistic (7 hours). However, when the slug option is used (BASEA_SLUG_CAL) the residence

time of the estimate tracer on the 600 km receptor arc more than doubles increasing from 7 to

15 hours. And adding puff splitting (APS) to the slug model formulation increases the estimated

tracer duration on the arc by another hour (16 hours).

The sensitivity of the CALPUFF/MMIF model configuration 600 km receptor arc tracer residence

time statistic to the specification of the slug and puff splitting options is a little different than

the CALPUFF/CALMET BASEA model configuration. Whereas the CALPUFF/CALMET BASEA

model configuration saw little sensitivity of the estimated tracer concentration residence time

on the arc due to puff splitting, the implementation of default puff splitting increases the tracer

residence time from 6 to 8 hours (CAL dispersion) and from 7 to 11 hours (PG dispersion) with

all hours puff splitting increasing the residence time even more. The effect of the slug option

using the CALPUFF/MMIF modeling platform has a very different effect on the tracer duration

time on the arc using the CAL and PG dispersion algorithms. Using the CAL dispersion option52 with APS, implementing the slug option decreases the tracer residence time of the 600 km arc

from 17 to 15 hours. However, using the PG dispersion option with APS, the tracer residence

on the 600 km receptor arc increased from 11 to 20 hours when the slug option is invoked using

the PG dispersion option.

Table 3

‐ 16. Duration of time tracer resides on the GP80 600 km receptor arc (hours) for the

CALPUFF slug and puff splitting sensitivity tests.

Scenario MSLUG MSPLIT Duration on 600 km Arc

Time (Hours) Difference (%)

Observed 12

CALPUFF/CALMET

BASEA_CAL 0 0 7

‐ 42%

BASEA_APS_CAL 0 1 7

‐ 42%

BASEA_SLUG_CAL 1 0 15 +25%

BASEA_SLUG_APS_CAL 1 1 16 +33%

CALPUFF/MMIF

MMIF12_CAL 0 0 6

‐ 50%

MMIF12_DPS_CAL 0 1 8

‐ 33%

MMIF12_APS_CAL 0 1 17 +42%

MMIF12_SLUG_APS_CAL 1 1 15 25%

MMIF12_PG 0 0 7

‐ 42%

MMIF12_DPS_PG 0 1 11

‐ 8%

MMMIF12_APS_PG 0 1 11

‐ 8%

MMIF12_SLUG_APS_PG 1 1 20 +67%

Table 3

‐ 17 summarizes the plume fitting model performance statistics for the CALPUFF slug and

puff splitting sensitivity tests. For the CALPUFF/CALMET BASEA_CAL slug and puff splitting

sensitivity tests, the improvements in CALPUFF’s estimated tracer residence time on the 600 km

receptor arc when the slug option is invoked is accompanied by a further degradation in

CALPUFF’s ability to estimate the maximum concentrations (Cmax/Omax) as well as increasing

CALPUFF’s overestimate of the observed plume spread ( σ y ) (~16,500 m) from ~120% (~35,000

m) without the slug option to over 250% (~60,000 m) with the slug option. The use of the slug

option also improves the angular offset of the plume centerline from off by ~18 degrees to off

by ~14 degrees. Finally, without using APS, CALPUFF’s CWIC performance is improved from a ‐

38% underestimation to a ‐ 12% underestimation, whereas with using APS the improvement in

CWIC performance due to using the slug option is less dramatic (

‐ 31% to

‐ 25%)

Using the CALPUFF/MMIF modeling platform, the changes in the maximum (Cmax/Omax) and

plume spread model performance statistics due to the use of the slug option are much less than

seen with the BASEA CALPUFF/CALMET modeling platform. Use of the slug option using the

CALPUFF/MMIF platform increases the maximum concentrations slightly, whereas with the

CALPUFF/CALMET platform the slug option resulting in slight deceases in concentrations. The

use of puff splitting had little effect on the CALPUFF/MMIF estimated maximum concentrations

and resulted in slightly wider plume widths. The biggest effect puff splitting had on the

CALPUFF/MMIF model performance was for the plume centerline angular displacement that

improved from 16

‐ 17 to 7

‐ 8 degrees offset from observed due to the use of puff splitting (DPS

or APS). In fact, of all the CALPUFF sensitivity tests examined, CALPUFF/MMIF using puff

splitting is the best performing model configuration for estimating plume centerline location.

Puff splitting resulted in small improvements in CALPUFF’s ability to predict CWIC across the

600 km arc. But the slug option greatly improved CALPUFF/MMIF’s ability to reproduce the53 observed CWIC. For example, using the CAL turbulence dispersion option, CALPUFF/MMIF

underestimates the observed CWIC at the 600 km receptor arc by

‐ 32% using the puff model

configuration and no puff splitting. Using the DPS and APS puff splitting approach reduces the

CWIC underestimation bias to

‐ 28% and

‐ 21%, respectively, And then adding the slug

formulation with the APS completely eliminates the CWIC underestimation bias (

‐ 2%). In fact,

use of the APS and slug options with the CALPUFF/MMIF modeling platform results in the best

performing CALPUFF sensitivity test for estimating CWIC across the 600 km arc of all the

CALPUFF sensitivity tests analyzed (Tables 3

‐ 15 and 3

‐ 17).

Table 3

‐ 17. Plume fitting statistics for the CALPUFF slug and puff splitting sensitivity tests.

CALPUFF slug and puff

splitting sensitivity test Cmax Omax Sigma

‐ y Centerline CWIC

(ppt) MNB (ppt) MNB (m) MNB (deg) Diff (ppt

‐ m) MNB

Observed 0.3152 0.3068 16,533 369.06 13,060

CALPUFF/CALMET

BASEA_CAL 0.0875

‐ 72% 0.0817

‐ 73% 36,870 123% 27.55 18.49 8,084

‐ 38%

BASEA_APS_CAL 0.1014

‐ 68% 0.1029

‐ 66% 35,510 115% 27.19 18.13 9,023

‐ 31%

BASEA_SLUG_CAL 0.0728

‐ 77% 0.0726

‐ 76% 62,650 279% 22.49 13.43 11,430

‐ 12%

BASEA_SLUG_APS_CAL 0.0673

‐ 79% 0.0652

‐ 79% 58,440 253% 23.56 14.50 9,855

‐ 25%

CALPUF/MMIF

MMIF12KM_CAL 0.1029

‐ 67% 0.1012

‐ 67% 34,290 107% 26.43 17.37 8,842

‐ 32%

MMIF12KM_DPS_CAL 0.1049

‐ 67% 0.1016

‐ 67% 35,960 118% 16.74 7.68 9,454

‐ 28%

MMIF12KM_APS_CAL 0.1108

‐ 65% 0.1076

‐ 65% 37,120 125% 16.30 7.24 10,310

‐ 21%

MMIF12KM_SLUG_CAL 0.1458

‐ 54% 0.1462

‐ 52% 35,190 113% 16.92 7.86 12,860

‐ 2%

MMIF12KM_PG 0.0956

‐ 70% 0.0887

‐ 71% 39,120 137% 24.89 15.83 9,371

‐ 28%

MMIF12KM_DPS_PG 0.1085

‐ 66% 0.1143

‐ 63% 41,610 152% 17.04 7.98 11,310

‐ 13%

MMIF12KM_APS_PG 0.1085

‐ 66% 0.1143

‐ 63% 41,610 152% 17.04 7.98 11,310

‐ 13%

MMIF12KM_SLUG_PG 0.1251

‐ 60% 0.1115

‐ 64% 41,770 153% 17.43 8.37 13,100 0%

3.5 CONCLUSIONS ON GP80 TRACER TEST EVALUATION

For the 100 km receptor arc CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity simulations, the ability of CALPUFF to

simulate the observed tracer concentrations varied among the different CALMET configurations

and were not inconsistent with the results of the 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation study (EPA,

1998a). The best performing CALPUFF/CALMET configuration was when CALMET was run using

MM5 data and just surface meteorological observations and no upper

‐ air meteorological

observations. In general, the CAL and AER turbulence dispersion options in CALPUFF performed

similarly and performed better than the PG dispersion option. The performance of CALPUFF

using the MMIF tool tended to be in the middle of the range of model performance for the

CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests; not as good as the performance of CALPUFF/CALMET using

MM5 and just surface observations data in CALMET, but better than the performance of

CALPUFF using MM5 data and no meteorological observations in CALMET.

The CALPUFF sensitivity modeling results for the GP80 600 km receptor arc were quite variable.

With two notable exception (the BASEA_PG and EXP2C configurations), the initial CALPUFF

sensitivity tests were unable to duplicate the observed tracer residence time on the 600 km

receptor arc as was seen in the 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation study (EPA, 1998a). However,

when the near

‐ source slug option was used, CALPUFF/CALMET was better able to reproduce54 the amount of time that the tracer was observed on the 600 km receptor arc. The standard

application of CALPUFF for LRT applications is the puff model formulation rather than the slug

model formation, which is designed to better simulate a near

‐ source continuous plume. The

fact that the slug formulation is needed to produce reasonable CALPUFF model performance

for residence time on the 600 km receptor suggests that the findings of the 1998 EPA CALPUFF

evaluation study should be re

‐ evaluated.

In general, the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests that are based on CALMET using MM5 data

with no meteorological observations exhibit better plume fitting model performance statistics

for the 600 km receptors arc than when meteorological observations are used with CALMET.

The use of the slug option with CALMET/CALPUFF, which improved the plume residence time

statistics, degrades the maximum concentrations and plume width statistics, but improves the

plume centerline and CWIC average plume concentration statistics. Puff splitting had little

effect on the CALPUFF/CALMET model predictions on the 600 km receptor arc. However, puff

splitting did improve the CALPUFF/MMIF plume centerline and CWIC average plume

concentration statistics, as well as the tracer residence time statistics. Puff splitting resulted in

a slight degradation of the plume width statistics in CALPUFF/MMIF. Using the slug option with

puff splitting in CALPUFF/MMIF results in the best performing CALPUFF model configuration of

all the sensitivity tests for the plume centerline and CWIC average plume statistics, although

the use of slug and puff splitting does degrade the plume width statistic.55 

## 4.0 1975 SAVANNAH RIVER LABORATORY FIELD STUDY

4.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE 1975 SAVANNAH RIVER LABORATORY FIELD STUDY

The 1975 Savannah River Laboratory (SRL75) field experiment was located in South Carolina

and occurred in December 1975 (DOE, 1978). A SF 6 tracer was released for four hours between

10:25 and 14:25 LST on December 10, 1975 from a 62 m stack with a diameter of 1.0 m, exit

velocity of 0.001 m/s and at ambient temperature. A single monitoring arc was used in the

SRL75 experiment that was approximately 100 kilometers from the source with monitoring

sites located along I

‐ 95 from Mile Post (MP) 76 near St. George, SC in the south to Hwy 36 west

of Tillman, SC to the north and along SC 336.

The 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation (EPA, 1998a) used the SRL75 SF 6 tracer release in the

CALPUFF model evaluation. However, the 1986 8 LRT dispersion model evaluation study

(Policastro et al., 1986) used the longer

‐ term SRL Krypton

‐ 85 release database (Telegadas et al.,

1980). In this study we evaluated CALPUFF using the SRL75 SF 6 database to be consistent with

the 1998 EPA study.

4.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION

Both the CALMET meteorological model and MMIF tools were used to provide meteorological

inputs to CALPUFF. The CALMET modeling was performed using a Universal Trans Mercator

(UTM) map projection in order to be consistent with the past CALPUFF applications (EPA,

1998a). The MMIF meteorological processing used a Lambert Conformal Conic (LCC) map

projection because in must be consistent with the MM5 coordinate system. Figure 4

‐ 1 displays

the CALMET/CALPUFF UTM modeling domain and locations of the ~200 receptors used in the

CALPUFF modeling that lie along an arc 100 km from the source. The tracer was observed using

~40 monitors that were located along I

‐ 95 between MP 24 and 76 that were approximately 100

km from the source. When using the Irwin Gaussian plume fitting model evaluation approach,

the tracer observations at the monitoring sites are assumed to be on an arc of receptors 100

km from the source.56 Figure 4

‐ 1. CALPUFF/CALMET UTM modeling domain and location of tracer release site and

CALPUFF receptors along am arc 100 km from the source for the SRL75 CALPUFF modeling.

In the CALPUFF modeling system, each of the three programs (CALMET, CALPUFF, and

CALPOST) uses a control file of user

‐ selectable options to control the data processing. There

are numerous options in each and several that can result in significant differences. The

following model controls for CALMET and CALPUFF were employed for the analyses with the

SRL75 tracer data.

4.2.1 CALMET Options

The following CALMET control parameters and options were chosen for the BASE case model

evaluation. The BASE case control parameters and options were chosen to be consistent with

two previous CALMET/CALPUFF evaluations (Irwin 1997 and EPA 1998a). The most important

CALMET options relate to the development of the wind field and were set as follows:

NOOBS = 0 Use surface, overwater, and upper air station data

IWFCOD = 1 Use diagnostic wind model to develop the 3

‐ D wind fields

IFRADJ = 1 Compute Froude number adjustment effects (thermodynamic

blocking effects of terrain)

IKINE = 0 Do NOT compute kinematic effects

IOBR = 0 Do NOT use O’Brien procedure for adjusting vertical velocity

IEXTRP = 4 Use similarity theory to extrapolate surface winds to upper layers57 IPROG = 0 Do NOT use prognostic wind field model output as input to

diagnostic wind field model (for observations only sensitivity test)

ITPROG = 0 Do NOT use prognostic temperature data output

Mixing heights are important in the estimating ground level concentrations. The CALMET

options that affect mixing heights were set as follows:

IAVEZI = 1 Conduct spatial averaging

MNMDAV = 1 Maximum search radius (in grid cells) in averaging process

HAFANG = 30. Half

‐ angle of upwind looking cone for averaging

ILEVZI = 1 Layer of winds to use in upwind averaging

DPTMIN = .001 Minimum potential temperature lapse rate (K/m) in stable layer

above convective mixing height

DZZI = 200 Depth of layer (meters) over which the lapse rate is computed

ZIMIN = 100 Minimum mixing height (meters) over land

ZIMAX = 3200 Maximum mixing height (meters) over land, defined to be the

top of the modeling domain

A number of CALMET model control options have no recommended default values, particularly

radii of influence values for terrain and surface and upper air observations. The CALMET

options that affect radius of influence were set as follows:

RMAX1 = 20 Minimum radius of influence in surface layer (km)

RMAX2 = 50 Minimum radius of influence over land aloft (km)

RMIN = 0.1 Minimum radius of influence in wind field interpolation (km)

TERRAD = 10 Radius of influence of terrain features (km)

RPROG = 0 Weighting factors of prognostic wind field data (km)

A review of the respective CALMET parameters between the 1998 EPA CALMET/CALPUFF

evaluation study using CALMET Version 4.0 and the BASE case scenario in the current

CALMET/CALPUFF evaluation using CALMET Version 5.8 indicates differences in some CALMET

options. The differences between the two scenarios are presented below in Table 4

‐ 1. All

other major CALMET options for BASE case scenario matched the original 1998 EPA analysis.

Table 4

‐ 1. CALMET parameters for the SRL75 tracer field experiment modeling used in the,

1998 EPA and current BASE case analysis.

CALMET

Option Description 1998

EPA

Setup BASE

Setup

IKINE Adjust winds using Kinematic effects? (yes

= 1 and no = 0) 1 0

MNMDAV Maximum search radius for averaging mixing heights (# grid cells) 3 1

ZUPWND Bottom and top layer through which domain

‐ scale winds are calculated

(in meters) 1,2000 1,1000

RMIN Minimum radius of influence in wind field interpolation (in km) 2 0.1

RMIN2 Minimum upper air station to surface station extrapolation radius (in km)

‐ 1 4

The CALMET preprocessor can utilize National Weather Service (NWS) meteorological data and

on

‐ site data to produce temporally and spatially varying three dimensional wind fields for

CALPUFF. Only NWS data were used for this effort and came from two compact disc (CD) data

sets. The first was the Solar and Meteorological Surface Observation Network (SAMSON)58 compact discs, which were used to obtain the hourly surface observations. The surface stations

used for the SRL75 CALMET modeling are shown in Table 4

‐ 2.

Table 4

‐ 2. 1975 Savannah River Laboratory surface meteorological stations.

State Cities

Georgia Athens, Atlanta, Augusta, Macon, Savannah

North Carolina Asheville, Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh

‐ Durham,

Wilmington

South Carolina Charleston, Columbia, Greer

‐ Spartanburg

Twice daily soundings came from the second set of compact discs, the Radiosonde Data for

North America

. The upper

‐ air rawinsonde meteorological observations used in the SRL75

CALMET modeling are shown in Table 4

‐ 3.

Table 4

‐ 3. 1975 Savannah River Laboratory tracer experiment rawinsonde sites.

State Cities

Georgia Athens, Waycross

North Carolina Greensboro, Cape Hatteras

South Carolina Charleston

Six vertical layers were defined for the CALPUFF modeling to be consistent with the Irwin (1997)

and EPA (1998a) modeling as follows: surface

‐ 20, 20

‐ 50, 50

‐ 100, 100

‐ 500, 500

‐ 2000, and 2000

‐

3300 meters.

MM5 prognostic meteorological model simulations were conducted using grid resolutions of

36, 12 and 4 km. The CALMET modeling used the 12 km MM5 data. The MMIF tool was

applied using all three MM5 grid resolutions and using the first 27 MM5 vertical layers from the

surface to approximately 6,500 m AGL.

4.2.2 CALPUFF Control Options

The following CALPUFF control parameters, which are a subset of the control parameters, were

used. These parameters and options were chosen to be consistent with the 1977 INEL study

(Irwin 1997) and 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation (EPA, 1998a) studies. Note that use of the slug

option (MSLUG

= 1) is fairly non

‐ standard for LRT modeling. However, that was what was used

in the 1997 INEL and 1998 EPA studies so it was also used in this study’s CALPUFF evaluation

using the SRL75 tracer database.

Technical options (group 2):

MCTADJ = 0 No terrain adjustment

MCTSG = 0 No subgrid scale complex terrain is modeled

MSLUG = 1 Near

‐ field puffs modeled as elongated (i.e., slugs)

MTRANS = 1 Transitional plume rise is modeled

MTIP = 1 Stack tip downwash is modeled

MSHEAR = 0 Vertical wind shear is NOT modeled above stack top

MSPLIT = 0 No puff splitting

MCHEM = 0 No chemical transformations

MWET = 0 No wet removal processes

MDRY = 0 No dry removal processes

MPARTL = 0 No partial plume penetration59 MPDF = 0 PDF NOT used for dispersion under convective conditions

MREG = 0 No check made to see if options conform to regulatory

Options

Two different values were used for the dispersion parameterization option MDISP:

= 2 Dispersion coefficients from internally calculated sigmas

= 3 PG dispersion coefficients for RURAL areas (PG)

In addition, under MDISP = 2 dispersion option, two different options were used for the

MCTURB option that defines the method used to compute turbulence sigma

‐ v and sigma

‐ w

using micrometeorological variables:

= 1 Standard CALPUFF routines (CAL)

= 2 AERMOD subroutines (AER)

Several miscellaneous dispersion and computational parameters (group 12) were set as follows:

SYTDEP = 550. Horizontal puff size beyond which Heffter equations are

used for sigma

‐ y and sigma

‐ z

MHFTSZ = 0 Do NOT use Heffter equation for sigma

‐ z

XMXLEN = 1 Maximum length of slug (in grid cells)

XSAMLEN = 1 Maximum travel distance of puff/slug (in grid cells) during one

sampling step

MXNEW = 99 Maximum number of slugs/puffs released during one time step

WSCALM = 0.5 Minimum wind speed (m/s) for non

‐ calm conditions

XMAXZI = 3000 Maximum mixing height (meters)

XMINZI = 50 Minimum mixing height (meters)

SL2PF = 10 Slug

‐ to

‐ puff transition criterion factor (= sigma

‐ y/slug length)

A review of the respective CALPUFF parameters between the 1998 EPA CALMET/CALPUFF

evaluation study using CALMET Version 4.0 and the BASE case scenario in the current

CALMET/CALPUFF evaluation using CALPUFF Version 5.8 indicates differences in some

parameters. The differences between the two scenarios are presented below in Table 4

‐ 4. All

other major CALPUFF options for current BASE case scenario matched the original 1998 EPA

analysis.60 Table 4

‐ 4. CALPUFF parameters used in the SRL75 tracer field experiment modeling for the

1998 EPA and current BASE case analysis.

CALPUFF

Option Description 1998 EPA

Setup Current Study

BASE Setup

SYMIN Minimum sigma y (meters) 0.01 1

SZMIN Minimum sigma z (meters) 0.01 1

WSCALM Minimum wind speed (m/s) for non

‐ calm

conditions 1.0 0.5

XMAXZI Maximum mixing height (meters) 3300 3000

XMINZI Minimum mixing height (meters) 20 50

XMXLEN Maximum length of slug (in grid cells) 0.1 1

XSAMLEN Maximum travel distance of puff/slug (in grid

cells) during one sampling step 0.1 1

MXNEW Maximum number of slugs/puffs released

during one time step 199 99

MXSAM Maximum number of sampling steps per

slug/puff during one time step 5 99

SL2PF Slug

‐ to

‐ puff transition criterion factor

(= sigma

‐ y/slug length) 5.0 10.0

4.2.3 SRL75 CALPUFF/CALMET Sensitivity Tests

Table 4

‐ 5 describes the CALMET/CALPUFF sensitivity tests performed for the modeling of the

100 km arc of receptors in the SRL75 field study. The BASE simulation uses the same

configuration as used in the 1998 EPA CALPUFF evaluation report, only updated from CALPUFF

Version 4.0 to CALPUFF Version 5.8. The CALMET and CALPUFF parameters of the BASE case

simulations were discussed earlier in this section.

The sensitivity simulations are designed to examine the sensitivity of the CALPUFF model

performance to 10 km grid resolution in the CALMET meteorological model simulation, the use

of 12 km resolution MM5 output data used as input to CALMET, and the use of surface and

upper

‐ air meteorological observations in CALMET through NOOBS = 0 (use surface and upper

‐

air observation), 1 (use only surface observations) and 2 (don’t use any observations).

In addition, for each experiment using different CALMET model configurations, three CALPUFF

dispersion options were examined as shown in Table 4

‐ 6. Two of the CALPUFF dispersion

sensitivity tests using dispersion based on sigma

‐ v and sigma

‐ w turbulence values using the

CALPUFF (CAL) and AERMOD (AER) algorithms. Whereas the third dispersion option (PG) uses

Pasquill

‐ Gifford dispersion coefficients.

Table 4

‐ 5. CALPUFF/CALMET experiments for the SRL75 tracer experiment.

Experiment CALMET

Grid MM5

Data NOOBS Comment

BASE 10 km None 0 Original met observations only configuration

EXP1A 10 km 12 km 0 Aug 2009 IWAQM w/10 km grid using 12 km MM5

EXP1B 10 km 12 km 1 Don’t use observed upper

‐ air meteorological data

EXP1C 10 km 12 km 2 Don’t use observed surface/upper

‐ air meteorological data61 Table 4

‐ 6. CALPUFF dispersion options examined in the CALPUFF sensitivity tests.

Experiment MDISP MCTURB Comment

CAL 2 1 Dispersion coefficients from internally calculated sigma

‐ v and

sigma

‐ w using micrometeorological variables and CALPUFF

algorithms

AER 2 2 Dispersion coefficients from internally calculated sigma

‐ v and

sigma

‐ w using micrometeorological variables and AERMOD

algorithms

PG 3

‐‐ PG dispersion coefficients for rural areas and MP coefficients

for urban areas

The CALMET and CALPUFF simulations used for the sensitivity analyses were updated from the

BASE case model configuration that was designed to be consistent with the 1998 EPA study by

using recommended settings for many variables from the August 2009 EPA Clarification

Memorandum. A summary of CALMET parameters that changed from the BASE case scenarios

for the CALPUFF sensitivity tests are presented in Table 4

‐ 7.

Table 4

‐ 7. CALMET wind field parameters for the SRL75 tracer experiment.

CALMET

Option 2009

EPA

‐ FLM

Default BASE EXP1A EXP1B EXP1C

NOOBS 0 0 0 1 2

ICLOUD 0 0 0 0 3

IEXTRP

‐ 4 4

‐ 4

‐ 4 1

IPROG 14 0 14 14 14

ITPROG 0 0 0 1 2

ZIMIN 50 100 50 50 50

ZIMAX 3000 3200 3000 3000 3000

RMAX1 100 20 100 100 50

RMAX2 200 50 200 200 100

4.2.4 CALPUFF/MMIF Sensitivity Tests

With the MMIF software tool designed to reformat the MM5/WRF meteorological model

output data for input into CALPUFF, there are much less options available and hence much

fewer sensitivity tests as shown in Table 4

‐ 8.62 Table 4

‐ 8. CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests analyzed with the SRL75 tracer experiment.

Grid

Resolution MM5 MDISP MCTURB Comment

36 km 36 km 2 1 36 km MM5 with CALPUFF turbulence dispersion

36 km 36 km 2 2 36 km MM5 with AERMOD turbulence dispersion

36 km 36 km 3

‐‐ 36 km MM5 with Pasquill

‐ Gifford dispersion

12 km 12 km 2 1 12 km MM5 with CALPUFF turbulence dispersion

12 km 12 km 2 2 12 km MM5 with AERMOD turbulence dispersion

12 km 12 km 3

‐‐ 12 km MM5 with Pasquill

‐ Gifford dispersion

4 km 4 km 2 1 4 km MM5 with CALPUFF turbulence dispersion

4 km 4 km 2 2 4 km MM5 with AERMOD turbulence dispersion

4 km 4 km 3

‐‐ 4 km MM5 with Pasquill

‐ Gifford dispersion

4.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE

The quality assurance (QA) of the CALPUFF modeling system simulations for the SRL tracer

experiment was assessed by analyzing the CALMET and CALPUFF input and output files and the

dates they were generated. The input file options were compared against the EPA

‐ FLM

recommended settings from the August 2009 Clarification Memorandum (EPA, 2009b) and the

definitions of the sensitivity tests to assure that the intended parameters were varied. The QA

of the MMIF runs was not completed because no input files or list files were provided to

document the MMIF parameters.

The CALMET sensitivity simulations used a radius of influence of terrain on wind fields equal to

10 m (TERRAD

= 10). The 2009 EPA Clarification Memorandum recommends TERRAD = 15. The

CALMET sensitivity simulations used a minimum extrapolation distance between surface and

upper air stations of 4 km (RMIN2

= 4). The 2009 EPA Clarification Memorandum recommends

RMIN2 = ‐ 1.

Four CALMET parameters (BIAS, NSMTH, NINTR2, and FEXTR2) require a value for each vertical

layer processed in CALMET. The CALMET BASE case has six vertical layers, but the sensitivity

simulations are based on ten vertical layers. The CALMET sensitivity simulations were provided

with only six values for BIAS, NSMTH, NINTR2, and FEXTR2 even though ten vertical layers were

simulated. Therefore, CALMET used default values for the upper four vertical layers (i.e., 1200

m, 2000 m, 3000 m, and 4000 m).

In addition to the three CALPUFF dispersion options (AERMOD, CALPUFF, and PG), there were

other CALPUFF parameters that differed between the CALPUFF/CALMET (BASE and sensitivity

cases) and CALPUFF/MMIF modeling scenarios. The CALPUFF parameter differences include:

• CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity runs using AERMOD and CALPUFF dispersion were conducted

using near

‐ field slug formation (MSLUG

= 1), but the CALPUFF/CALMET PG and

CALPUFF/MMIF runs were conducted using puffs (MSLUG

= 0).

• CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity runs using AERMOD and CALPUFF dispersion were set

‐ up to

not allow for partial plume penetration of inversion layer (MPARTL

= 0).

The quality assurance of the post

‐ processing of the SRL75 CALPUFF runs uncovered two errors.

The first was that the conversion factor to convert the SF 6 tracer concentrations from mass per

volume to ppt was approximately three times too large. The second error was that when

calculating the integrated concentrations along the arc, the wrong time period was specified.

These two errors were fixed and the CALPUFF results re

‐ processed to generate new plume

fitting statistical performance measures.63 4.4 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION FOR THE SRL75 TRACER EXPERIMENT

The Irwin (1997) plume fitting evaluation approach was used to evaluate CALPUFF for the SRL75

field experiment. There are two components to the Irwin plume fitting evaluation approach:

1. A temporal analysis that examines the time the tracer arrives, leaves and resides on the

receptor arc; and

2. A plume fitting procedures that compares the predicted observed peak and average plume

concentrations and the width of the plume by fitting a Gaussian plume through the

predicted or observed concentrations across the arc of receptors or monitors that lie on

the 100 km receptor arc.

Because only long

‐ term integrated average observed SF 6 samples were available, the timing

component of the evaluation could not be compared against observed values in the SRL75

experiments.

Most of the CALPUFF sensitivity tests estimated that the tracer arrived at the 100 km arc on

hour 13 LST, 21⁄2 hours after the beginning to the tracer release. The exceptions to this are the

CALPUFF/MMIF simulations using the 4 km MM5 data and CALPUFF/MMIF using the 36 km and

PG dispersion that estimated the plume arrives at hour 14 LST. With one exception, the

CALPUFF simulations estimated that the tracer resided either 5 or 6 hours on the arc. And with

two exceptions, it was the meteorological data rather than the dispersion option that defined

the residence time of the estimated tracer on the 100 km receptor arc. The exceptions were

for the PG dispersion sensitivity test that in two cases predicted the tracer would remain one

less hour on the arc; the CALPUFF/CALMET BASE sensitivity test using the PG dispersion

estimated that the tracer would reside only 4 hours on the 100 km receptor arc. Without any

observed tracer timing statistics, these results are difficult to interpret.

Table 4

‐ 9 displays the model performance evaluation for the various CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the Irwin plume fitting evaluation approach. The observed values were taken from the

1998 EPA CALPUFF tracer test evaluation report data (EPA, 1998a). Also shown in Table 4

‐ 4 are

the statistics from the 1998 EPA report for the CALPUFF V4.0 modeling using Pasquill

‐ Gifford

(PG) and similarity (CAL) dispersion. Note that the EPA 1998 CALPUFF modeling used CALMET

with just observations so is analogous to the BASE sensitivity scenario that used CALPUFF V5.8.

There are five statistical parameters evaluated using the Irwin plume fitting evaluation

approach:

• Cmax, which is the plume fitted centerline concentration.

• Omax, which is the maximum observed value at the ~40 monitoring sites or maximum

predicted value across the ~200 receptors along the 100 km arc.

• Sigma

‐ y, which the second moment of the Gaussian distribution and a measure of the

plume spread.

• Plume Centerline, which is the angle of the plume centerline from the source to the 100

km arc.

• CWIC, the cross wind integrated concentration (CWIC) across the predicted and observed

fitted Gaussian plume.

The first thing we note in Table 4

‐ 9 is that the maximum centerline concentration of the fitted

Gaussian plume to the observed SF 6 tracer concentrations across the 12 monitors (2.739 ppt) is

almost half the observed maximum at any of the monitors (5.07 ppt). As the centerline

concentrations in a Gaussian plume represents the maximum concentration, this means that64 the fitted Gaussian plume is not a very good fit of the observations and the Cmax parameter is

not a good indicator of model performance. Comparison of the predicted and observed Omax

values that represents the maximum observed concentration across the monitoring sites and

the maximum predicted value at any of the 200 receptors along the arc is an apple

‐ orange

comparison. We would expect the predicted Omax value to be the same or larger than the

observed Omax value given there are ~5 times more samples of the plume in the model

predictions compared to the observations. This is the case for all of the CALPUFF/MMIF

sensitivity tests. However, when CALPUFF is run using CALMET with no MM5 data (BASE), the

predicted Omax value is less than the observed value for both CALPUFF V4.0 and CALPUFF V5.8,

which is an undesirable attribute.

The fitted plume width (sigma

‐ y) based on observations is almost doubled the fitted plume

width based on the CALPUFF model predictions for all the CALPUFF simulations. However, this

is likely due in part to the poor Gaussian plume fit of the observations. Figure 4

‐ 2 is reproduced

from the 1998 EPA CALPUFF tracer test report and compares the CALPUFF fitted Gaussian

plume concentrations with the 13 observed tracer concentrations, where the predicted and

observed tracer distributions have been rotated so that their centerlines match up. Of the 13

monitors pictured along the 100 km arc, four have substantial (> 2.0 ppt) concentrations

whereas the tracer concentrations at the remaining monitoring sites are mostly <0.2 ppt.

Based on this figure, the predicted and observed plume widths match quite well. However,

when fitting a Gaussian plume to the observations it appears that the “observed” width is

overstated due to the low tracer concentration monitoring sites on the wings of the plume.

These results suggest that in the real world the concept of a Gaussian plume may not hold at

longer downwind distances, such as the 100 km receptor arc used in the SRL75 field

experiment. Consequently, the use of a fitted Gaussian plume as a model evaluation tool may

be a poor indicator of model performance for LRT dispersion models.

The plume centerline metric is a useful tool for evaluating the main flow of the center of mass

of a plume from the source to receptor arc. The observed plume centerline is at 126 degrees.

The CALPUFF/MMIF estimated centerline is off by 8

‐ 10 degrees too far south. However,

CALPUFF using CALMET and just observations is off by 17 degrees (EPA, 1998a) and 20 degrees

(BASE) and it is too far south. Adding the 12 km MM5 data with the observations in CALPUFF

(EXP1) only improves the centerline angular offset from 20 to 19 degrees. Removing the upper

‐

air meteorological observations from the CALMET modeling (EXP2) results in no improvements

in the CALPUFF/CALPUFF centerline offset (still 19 degrees). However, also removing the

surface meteorological observations from the CALMET modeling (EXP3, NOOBS = 2) improves

the CALPUFF/CALMET centerline angular offset from 19 to 12 degrees so that it is almost as

good as the CALPUFF/MMIF simulations (8 to 10 degrees offset).65 Table 4

‐ 9. CALPUFF model performance statistics using the Irwin plume fitting evaluation

approach using the SRL75 field experiment and the 1998 EPA study and the CALPUFF

sensitivity tests.

CALPUFF Cmax 1 Omax Sigma

‐ y 1 Plume Centerline CWIC

Sensitivity

Test (ppt) MNB (ppt) MNB (meters) MNB (degrees) Dif f

(deg) (ppt/m 2 ) MNB

Observed 2.739 5.07 11643 125.59 79,940

EPA 1998

PG 7.20 163% 6.90 36% 7200

‐ 38% 143 17 129,000 61%

Similarity 5.1 86% 5.00

‐ 1% 6000

‐ 48% 143 17 77,000

‐ 4%

MMMIF

4KM_AER 8.791 221% 8.625 70% 6810

‐ 42% 135.9 10.31 150,100 88%

4KM_CAL 8.79 221% 8.625 70% 6801

‐ 42% 135.9 10.31 149,800 87%

4KM_PG 8.798 221% 8.656 71% 6844

‐ 41% 135.9 10.31 150,900 89%

12KM_AER 10.63 288% 10.41 105% 6587

‐ 43% 133.8 8.21 175,500 120%

12KM_CAL 10.79 294% 10.42 106% 6492

‐ 44% 133.8 8.21 175,500 120%

12KM_PG 10.7 291% 10.49 107% 6545

‐ 44% 133.8 8.21 175,500 120%

36KM_AER 11.61 324% 11.4 125% 6315

‐ 46% 134.1 8.51 183,800 130%

36KM_CAL 11.62 324% 11.41 125% 6311

‐ 46% 134.1 8.51 183,800 130%

36KM_PG 12.46 355% 12.24 141% 6072

‐ 48% 133.7 8.11 189,700 137%

CALMET

BASE_AER 3.495 28% 3.241

‐ 36% 6640

‐ 43% 145.8 20.21 58,180

‐ 27%

BASE_CAL 3.505 28% 3.239

‐ 36% 6612

‐ 43% 145.8 20.21 58,100

‐ 27%

BASE_PG 7.322 167% 6.734 33% 6941

‐ 40% 144.8 19.21 127,400 59%

EXP1A_AER 4.849 77% 4.691

‐ 7% 6383

‐ 45% 144.5 18.91 77,580

‐ 3%

EXP1A_CAL 4.849 77% 4.691

‐ 7% 6385

‐ 45% 144.5 18.91 77,600

‐ 3%

EXP1A_PG 7.138 161% 7.337 45% 6307

‐ 46% 143.4 17.81 112,800 41%

EXP1B_AER 5.318 94% 5.289 4% 6132

‐ 47% 145.3 19.71 81,740 2%

EXP1B_CAL 5.303 94% 5.277 4% 6148

‐ 47% 145.3 19.71 81,720 2%

EXP1B_PG 6.468 136% 7.022 39% 6190

‐ 47% 144.7 19.11 100,300 25%

EXP1C_AER 7.892 188% 7.754 53% 5939

‐ 49% 137.4 11.81 117,500 47%

EXP1C_CAL 7.981 191% 7.843 55% 5926

‐ 49% 137.4 11.81 118,600 48%

EXP1C_PG 8.318 204% 8.167 61% 5697

‐ 51% 137.1 11.51 118,800 49%

1. Because of the poor fit of the fitted Gaussian plume with the observed tracer concentrations in the

SRL75 experiment, the Cmax and Sigma

‐ y are not meaningful metrics of model performance.66 Figure 4

‐ 2. Comparison of predicted fitted plume with observations for the SRL75 tracer

experiments (Source: EPA, 1998a). Note that results from this study are not shown.

With the exception of the plume centerline statistic, the Irwin plume fitting evaluation

approach was not a very useful evaluation tool for comparing the model predictions and

observations using the SRL75 field experiment data. However, it is a useful tool for comparing

the CALPUFF simulations using the different versions of CALPUFF/CALMET. The BASE

CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity test in this study was designed to be setup in the same fashion as

the 1998 EPA tracer modeling study. Although there are some similarities, there are also some

differences. For example, using the PG dispersion results in much higher CWIC in both the 1998

EPA (129,000 ppt/m 2 ) and BASE (127,400 ppt/m 2 ) sensitivity tests versus using the CAL

turbulence/similarity dispersions options (77,000 ppt/m 2 for 1998 EPA and ~58,000 ppt/m 2 for

BASE). The maximum estimated concentration at any of the 200 receptors along the 100 km

arc using the PG dispersion are very similar for the 1998 EPA (6.9 ppt) and BASE sensitivity (6.7

ppt) scenario and lower concentrations are estimated using the CAL turbulence dispersion in

the 1998 EPA (5.0 ppt) and the BASE (3.2 ppt) sensitivity test.

4.5 CONCLUSIONS OF THE SRL75 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

Because the fit of the Gaussian plume to the observed tracer concentrations along the SRL75

100 km receptor arc did not match the observed values well, the fitted plume evaluation

approach did not work well using the SRL75 database. Thus, there are few conclusions that can

be drawn about the CALPUFF model performance using the SRL75 tracer field experiment data.

The plume centerline evaluation is still valid and the use of CALPUFF without using

meteorological observations with CALMET either through MMIF or with CALMET using no

observations (NOOBS

= 2) produces better plume centerline performance than when

meteorological observations are used with CALMET. These results are consistent with EPA’s

thoughts in the 2009 IWAQM Reassessment Report (EPA, 2009a) and August 2009 Clarification

Memorandum (EPA, 2009b); it is better to pass through the wind fields and other

meteorological field from MM5/WRF to CALPUFF, rather than running them through CALMET,

which can introduce artifacts and upset the dynamic balance of the meteorological fields.67 

## 5.0 1983 CROSS APPALACHIAN TRACER EXPERIMENT

5.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE 1983 CROSS APPALACHIAN TRACER EXPERIMENT

A series of tracer test field experiments were conducted between September 18 and October

29, 1983 over the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada (Ferber et al., 1986; Draxler et

al., 1988). The Cross

‐ Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) consisted of 5 tracer releases

from Dayton, Ohio and 2 tracer releases from Sudbury, Ontario. Each release was independent

of the others and was conducted when the forecast was for the tracer to pass through the

center of the sampling network. Samplers were placed at a variety of locations in the northeast

U.S. and southeast Canada to distances of about 1,000 km from Dayton. Although synoptic

meteorological conditions were similar between releases at each location, there were large

differences in the spatial concentration patterns, from narrow to wide. There was even a case

of the tracer plume passing over the samplers without mixing to the surface.

The CALPUFF LRT modeling system was evaluated for various model configurations and

meteorological inputs using two of the five CAPTEX tracer release experiments:

CTEX3 : The third CAPTEX tracer release occurred on October 2, 1983 where a tracer was

released from Dayton, Ohio for two hours between the hours of 1400 and 1600 LST with a

release rate of 18.611 g/s.

CTEX5 : The fifth CAPTEX tracer release occurred during the end of October with a two

hour tracer release from Sudbury, Ontario between hour 23 on October 25, 1983 and hour

01 on October 26, 1983 with a release rate of 16.667 g/s.

Figure 5

‐ 1 displays the locations of the two tracer release sites and the tracer sampling network

for the CAPTEX tracer field experiments. Also shown in Figure 5

‐ 1 are the CALPUFF, CALMET

and MMIF modeling domains.

This section describes the evaluation of the CALPUFF LRT dispersion model using the CTEX3 and

CTEX5 field experiments using numerous sensitivity tests with alternative meteorological

inputs. Appendices A and B present the evaluation of the MM5 and CALMET sensitivity

simulations using surface meteorological observations for the, respectively, CTEX5 and CTEX3

experiments. Appendix C presents the evaluation of six LRT dispersion models using the CTEX3

and CTEX5 field studies and common MM5 meteorological inputs.68 Figure 5

‐ 1. Location of Dayton and Sudbury tracer release sites and the tracer sampling

network for the CAPTEX tracer field experiments.

5.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION

CALPUFF was applied using several different meteorological inputs. The first set was designed

to use the same meteorological modeling technology as used in previous years to evaluate

CALPUFF V4.0 only using the current regulatory versions of CALPUFF (V5.8) to document the

effects of version changes. For the CTEX5 experiment period, the MM5 prognostic

meteorological model was applied using grid resolutions of 80, 36 and 12 km to investigate the

sensitivity of CALMET and CALPUFF model performance to MM5 grid resolution. For the CTEX3

experiment period, MM5 modeling was performed using grid resolution of 36 and 12 km, for

the MM5 80 km sensitivity tests historical 80 km MM4 output data were utilized. CALMET was

also run with different grid resolutions (18, 12 and 4 km) using the different MM5/MM4 grid

resolution data as input. CALPUFF V5.8 was evaluated using the ATMES

‐ II procedures using the

various MM5/CALMET meteorological inputs, as well as inputs from the Mesoscale Model

Interface (MMIF) tool that performs a “pass through” of the MM5 meteorological output to

provide meteorological inputs to CALPUFF.69 5.2.1 MM5 Prognostic Meteorological Modeling

The most recent version of the publicly available non

‐ hydrostatic version of MM5 (version

3.7.4) was used. The MM5 preprocessors pregrid, regrid, little_r, and interpf were used to

develop initial and boundary conditions. Nine separate MM5 sensitivity tests were performed

for the CTEX5 field experiment period as listed in Table 5

‐ 1. As noted previously, for CTEX3

period no 80 km MM5 modeling was performed and historical 80 km MM4 data were used for

the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests.

The MM5 modeling for this study was based on three vertical structures designed to replicate

common vertical structures of meteorological modeling from the 1980’s to 2000’s with vertical

definitions of 16, 33, and 43 layers. The MM5 vertical domain definition for the 33 and 43 layer

MM5 sensitivity simulations are presented in both sigma and height coordinates in Tables 5

‐ 2

and 5

‐ 3. Topographic information for the MM5 system was developed using the NCAR and the

United States Geological Survey (USGS) terrain databases. Vegetation type and land use

information was developed using the most recent NCAR/PSU databases provided with the

MM5 distribution [available at ftp://ftp.ucar.edu/mesouser]. Standard MM5 surface

characteristics corresponding to each land use category were used.

Four different grid configurations were defined for the MM5 sensitivity modeling. The first

experiment (EXP1) was a baseline run using the horizontal and vertical configuration of MM4

simulations of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s (similar to the original MM4 dataset published

by the EPA). The baseline simulation uses a single domain (no nests) with a horizontal grid

resolution of 80 km and 16 vertical levels. The baseline configuration used older physics

options more consistent with physics options available at the time of publication of the original

EPA MM4 dataset. Physics options include the Blackadar (BLKDR) Planetary Boundary Layer

(PBL) parameterization, Anthes

‐ Kuo (AK) convective parameterization, Dudhia Radiation

(DRAD), Dudhia Simple Ice Microphysics (SIM), and a 5

‐ layer soil model (5LAYSOIL).

The second MM5 experiment (EXP2) was designed to reflect common grid and physics

configurations used in numerical weather modeling for air quality simulations in the late 1990’s

and early 2000’s. EXP2A through EXP2C used three nested domains (108, 36, and 12 km) with a

33 vertical layer vertical structure (Table 5

‐ 2). Physics options include the Medium Range

Forecast model (MRF) PBL parameterization, Kain

‐ Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization,

rapid radiative transfer model (RRTM) radiation, SIM microphysics, and the 5LAYSOIL soil

model. EXP2H is a variation of EXP2C, reflecting another common configuration of the period,

but using the BLKDR PBL parameterization instead of the MRF PBL.

The third MM5 experiment (EXP3) was designed to reflect the more recent advances in

numerical weather modeling for air quality simulations, both in terms of grid configuration and

physics options. These options are largely consistent with annual MM5 simulations conducted

by the EPA and the Regional Haze Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs). Consistent with

EXP2, EXP3 uses three nested domains (108, 36, and 12 km). EXP3 uses the Pleim

‐ Xu (PX) PBL

parameterization, the Kain

‐ Fritsch 2 (KF2) convective parameterization, DRAD radiation, and

the Pleim

‐ Xu (PX) land surface model (LSM).

A key facet in the MM5 sensitivity modeling was to measure the effectiveness of various four

‐

dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) strategies on meteorological model performance and also

determine the importance of assimilated fields in enhancing the performance of long range

transport (LRT) model simulations. In EXP1 and EXP2 series, there are a minimum of three70 MM5 runs, the first without FDDA (i.e., in forecasting mode), the second with three

‐

dimensional analysis nudging above the PBL only, and the third using both three

‐ dimensional

analysis nudging above the PBL and surface analysis nudging below the PBL. Nudging within

the PBL was turned off for temperature and mixing ratio. Default nudging strengths were used

for both three

‐ dimensional analysis and surface analysis nudging in these scenarios.

In scenarios EXP2I and EXP2J, alternative data assimilation strategies were tested while keeping

the three

‐ dimensional and surface analysis nudging. In EXP2I, the nudging strength was

doubled. Observational nudging was turned on for EXP2J in addition to the nudging strengths

used in EXP2I. The NCAR ds472.0 dataset was used to provide surface observations for the

observational nudging.

Although new MM5 meteorological modeling was performed for the scenarios in Table 5

‐ 1 for

the CTEX5 field experiment, for the CTEX3 field experiment the historical 80 km MM4 data was

used for the 80 km MM5/MM4 scenarios and the FDDA sensitivity tests were not performed.

Table 5

‐ 1. Summary of CTEX5 MM5 sensitivity tests. design.

Sensitivity

Test Horizontal

Grid Vertical

Layers Physics

Options FDDA

Used

EXP1A 80 km 16 BLKDR, AK, DRAD, SIM, 5LAYSOIL No FDDA

EXP1B 80 km 16 BLKDR, AK, DRAD, SIM, 5LAYSOIL Analysis Nudging

EXP1C 80 km 16 BLKDR, AK, DRAD, SIM, 5LAYSOIL Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

EXP2A 108/36/12km 33 MRF, KF, RRTM, SIM, 5LAYSOIL No FDDA

EXP2B 108/36/12km 33 MRF, KF, RRTM, SIM, 5LAYSOIL Analysis Nudging

EXP2C 108/36/12km 33 MRF, KF, RRTM, SIM, 5LAYSOIL Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

EXP2F 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR, KF, DRAD, SIM, 5LAYSOIL No FDDA

EXP2G 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR, KF, DRAD, SIM, 5LAYSOIL Analysis Nudging

EXP2H 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR, KF, DRAD, SIM, 5LAYSOIL Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

EXP2I 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR, KF, DRAD, SIM, 5LAYSOIL Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

FDDA x 2 strength

EXP2J 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR, KF, DRAD, SIM, 5LAYSOIL Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

FDDA x 2 strength

Observational Nudging

EXP4 108/36/12km 43 PXPBL, KF2, DRAD, R2, PXLSM Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

4 km 4 km 43 BLKDR, KF, DRAD, SIM, 5LAYSOIL

(EXP2H) Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging71 Table 5

‐ 2. MM5 sensitivity tests EXP2A through EXP2C vertical domain definition using 33

vertical layers.

k(MM5) sigma Press.

(bar) height(m) depth(m)

33 0.0000 10000 14662 1841

32 0.0500 14500 12822 1466

31 0.1000 19000 11356 1228

30 0.1500 23500 10127 1062

29 0.2000 28000 9066 939

28 0.2500 32500 8127 843

27 0.3000 37000 7284 767

26 0.3500 41500 6517 704

25 0.4000 46000 5812 652

24 0.4500 50500 5160 607

23 0.5000 55000 4553 569

22 0.5500 59500 3984 536

21 0.6000 64000 3448 506

20 0.6500 68500 2942 480

19 0.7000 73000 2462 367

18 0.7400 76600 2095 266

17 0.7700 79300 1828 259

16 0.8000 82000 1569 169

15 0.8200 83800 1400 166

14 0.8400 85600 1235 163

13 0.8600 87400 1071 160

12 0.8800 89200 911 236

11 0.9100 91900 675 154

10 0.9200 92800 598 153

9 0.9300 93700 521 152

8 0.9400 94600 445 151

7 0.9500 95500 369 149

6 0.9600 96400 294 74

5 0.9700 97300 220 111

4 0.9800 98200 146 37

3 0.9850 98650 109 37

2 0.9900 99100 73 36

1 0.9950 99550 36 36

0 1.0000 100000 0 072 Table 5

‐ 3. MM5 sensitivity tests EXP2F through EXP2H vertical domain definition using 43

vertical layers.

k(MM5) sigma Press(mb) height(m) depth(m)

43 0.0000 10000 14662 409

42 0.0100 10900 14253 571

41 0.0250 12250 13682 696

40 0.0450 14050 12986 635

39 0.0650 15850 12351 724

38 0.0900 18100 11627 660

37 0.1150 20350 10966 724

36 0.1450 23050 10242 663

35 0.1750 25750 9579 710

34 0.2100 28900 8869 742

33 0.2500 32500 8127 681

32 0.2900 36100 7446 630

31 0.3300 39700 6815 587

30 0.3700 43300 6228 483

29 0.4050 46450 5745 458

28 0.4400 49600 5287 435

27 0.4750 52750 4852 415

26 0.5100 55900 4436 341

25 0.5400 58600 4095 329

24 0.5700 61300 3766 318

23 0.6000 64000 3448 307

22 0.6300 66700 3141 297

21 0.6600 69400 2844 288

20 0.6900 72100 2556 279

19 0.7200 74800 2277 271

18 0.7500 77500 2005 220

17 0.7750 79750 1785 215

16 0.8000 82000 1569 211

15 0.8250 84250 1359 206

14 0.8500 86500 1153 122

13 0.8650 87850 1031 120

12 0.8800 89200 911 119

11 0.8950 90550 792 271

10 0.9100 91900 675 154

9 0.9200 92800 598 153

8 0.9300 93700 521 152

7 0.9400 94600 445 151

6 0.9500 95500 369 149

5 0.9600 96400 294 74

4 0.9700 97300 220 74

3 0.9800 98200 146 73

2 0.9900 99100 73 44

1 0.9960 99640 29 29

0 1.0000 100000 0 0

5.2.2 CALMET Diagnostic Meteorological Modeling

The CALMET (Scire, 2000a) diagnostic meteorological model generates wind fields and other

meteorological variables required by the CALPUFF LRT dispersion model in a two

‐ step process.73 In STEP 1, an initial first guess wind field is modified through parameterized diagnostic wind

field effects due to terrain: blocking and deflection, channeling and slope flows. The first guess

wind field can be provided using prognostic meteorological model output (e.g., MM5) or

interpolated from observations. The resultant STEP 1 wind field is then modified in STEP 2 by

incorporating (blending) surface and upper

‐ air wind observations with the STEP 1 wind field in

an Objective Analysis (OA) procedure. CALMET has numerous options on how to generate the

STEP 1 wind field as well as how the STEP 2 OA procedure is performed. A series of CALMET

sensitivity tests were performed to examine the efficacy of OA, optimal radii of influence for

CALMET OA operations, and also to examine the role of horizontal grid resolution on

performance of both the diagnostic meteorological model and the performance of the CALPUFF

(Scire, 2000b) LRT dispersion model. CALMET was operated at three horizontal grid resolutions

(18, 12 and 4 km) with input prognostic meteorological data at horizontal resolutions of 80 km

(MM5 EXP1C), 36 km (MM5 EXP2H), and 12 km (MM5 EXP2H). Additionally, the Mesoscale

Model Interface (MMIF) tool (Emery and Brashers, 2009) was also applied using MM5 output at

80 km (MM5 EXP1C), 36 km (MM5 EXP2H), and 12 km (MM5 EXP2H) for CTEX5. Since no 80 km

MM5 data was available for CTEX3, MMIF was only used using the 36 and 12 km MM5 output

for CTEX3. In addition, for CTEX5 MMIF was run using 4 km MM5 output that was generated in

a “nest down” simulation from the 12 km MM5 simulation.

33 separate CALMET sensitivity tests were performed using MM5 output from the MM5

sensitivity simulations listed in Table 5

‐ 1 and the CALMET sensitivity test experimental

configuration design given in Tables 5

‐ 4 and 5

‐ 5. The definitions of the 33 CALMET sensitivity

tests are given in Table 5

‐ 6. CALPUFF sensitivity simulations were performed using a subset of

the 33 CALMET sensitivity tests for the CTEX3 and CTEX5 tracer test field experiments. For both

the CTEX3 and CTEX5 modeling periods, the CALMET EXP2 sensitivity test series was not run

with CALPUFF, as well as the EXP1 series for CTEX5. The BASED CALPUFF simulation

encountered an error in execution and failed to finish for the CTEX3 modeling period. The

80KM_MMIF was also not run for CTEX3 because MMIF was not designed to use MM4 data.

For CTEX5, a 4 km MM5 nest down simulation was performed off of the MM5 EXP2H sensitivity

test (see Figure 5

‐ 1) so that a 4KM_MMIF CALPUFF sensitivity test could also be performed.

Table 5

‐ 4. CALMET sensitivity test experiment configuration for grid resolution.

Experiment CALMET

Resolution

(km) MM5

Resolution

(km)

BASE 18 80

EXP1 12 80

EXP2 4 80

EXP3 12 36

EXP4 12 12

EXP5 4 36

EXP6 4 12

Table 5

‐ 5. CALMET Objective Analysis (OA) sensitivity test configurations.

Experiment

Series RMAX1

(km) RMAX2

(km) NOOBS Comment

A 500 1000 0 Use surface and upper

‐ air met obs

B 100 200 0 Use surface and upper

‐ air met obs

C 10 100 0 Use surface and upper

‐ air met obs

D 0 0 2 Don’t use surface and upper

‐ air met obs74 Table 5

‐ 6. Definition of the CALMET sensitivity tests and data sources.

Sensitivity

Test MM5 Experiment

and Resolution CALMET

Resolution RMAX1/RMAX2 NOOBS CTEX3 CTEX5

BASEA EXP1C

– 80 km 18 km 500/1000 0 Yes Yes

BASEB EXP1C

– 80 km 18 km 100/200 0 Yes Yes

BASEC EXP1C

– 80 km 18 km 10/100 0 Yes Yes

BASED EXP1C

– 80 km 18 km 0/0 2 No Yes

1A EXP1C

– 80 km 12 km 500/1000 0 Yes No

1B EXP1C

– 80 km 12 km 100/200 0 Yes No

1C EXP1C

– 80 km 12 km 10/100 0 Yes No

1D EXP1C

– 80 km 12 km 0/0 2 Yes No

2A EXP1C

– 80 km 4 km 500/1000 0 No No

2B EXP1C

– 80 km 4 km 100/200 0 No No

2C EXP1C

– 80 km 4 km 10/100 0 No No

2D EXP1C

– 80 km 4 km 0/0 2 No No

3A EXP2H

– 36 km 12 km 500/1000 0 Yes Yes

3B EXP2H

– 36 km 12 km 100/200 0 Yes Yes

3C EXP2H

– 36 km 12 km 10/100 0 Yes Yes

3D EXP2H

– 36 km 12 km 0/0 2 Yes Yes

4A EXP2H

– 12 km 12 km 500/1000 0 Yes Yes

4B EXP2H

– 12 km 12 km 100/200 0 Yes Yes

4C EXP2H

– 12 km 12 km 10/100 0 Yes Yes

4D EXP2H

– 12 km 12 km 0/0 2 Yes Yes

5A EXP2H

– 36 km 4 km 500/1000 0 Yes Yes

5B EXP2H

– 36 km 4 km 100/200 0 Yes Yes

5C EXP2H

– 36 km 4 km 10/100 0 Yes Yes

5D EXP2H

– 36 km 4 km 0/0 2 Yes Yes

6A EXP2H

– 12 km 4 km 500/1000 0 Yes Yes

6B EXP2H

– 12 km 4 km 100/200 0 Yes Yes

6C EXP2H

– 12 km 4 km 10/100 0 Yes Yes

6D EXP2H

– 12 km 4 km 0/0 2 Yes Yes

80KM_MMIF EXP1C

– 80 km MMIF NA NA No Yes

36KM_MMIF EXP2H

– 36 km MMIF NA NA Yes Yes

12KM_MMIF EXP2H

– 12 km MMIF NA NA Yes Yes

4KM_MMIF 4 km EXP2H nest

down MMIF NA NA No Yes

5.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE

Quality assurance (QA) of the CALMET and CALPUFF sensitivity modeling was performed by

analyzing the run control files to confirm that the intended options and inputs of each

sensitivity test were used. For the MM5 datasets, performance for meteorological parameters

of wind (speed and direction), temperature, and humidity (mixing ratio) are examined. For the

CALMET experiments, just model estimated winds (speed and direction) were compared to

observations because the two

‐ dimensional temperature and relative humidity fields output are

simple interpolated fields of the observations. Therefore, the performance evaluation for

CALMET was restricted to winds where the majority of change can be induced by both

diagnostic terrain adjustments and varying the OA strategy. Note that except for the NOOBS =

2 CALMET sensitivity tests (experiment K), surface meteorological observations are blended in

the wind fields used in the CALMET STEP 2 OA procedure. Thus, this is not a true independent75 evaluation as the surface meteorological observations used in the evaluation were also used as

input into CALMET.

The METSTAT software (Emery et al., 2001) was used to match MM5 output with observation

data. The MMIFStat software (McNally, 2010) tool was used to match CALMET output with

observation data. Emery and co

‐ workers (2001) have developed a set of “benchmarks” for

comparing prognostic meteorological model performance statistics metrics. These benchmarks

were developed after examining the performance of the MM5 and RAMS prognostic

meteorological models for over 30 applications. The purpose of the benchmarks is not to

assign a passing or failing grade, rather it is to put the prognostic meteorological model

performance in context. The surface meteorological model performance benchmarks from

Emery et al., (2001) are displayed in Table 5

‐ 7. Note that the wind speed RMSE benchmark was

also used for wind speed MNGE given the similarity of the RMSE and MNGE performance

statistics. These benchmarks are not applicable for diagnostic model evaluations.

Table 5

‐ 7. Wind speed and wind direction benchmarks used to help judge the performance of

prognostic meteorological models (Source: Emery et al., 2001).

Wind Speed Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)

Mean Normalized Bias (NMB)

Index of Agreement (IOA) ≤ 2.0 m/s

≤ ±0.5 m/s

≥ 0.6

Wind Direction Mean Normalized Gross Error (MNGE)

Mean Normalized Bias (MNB) ≤ 30°

≤ ±10°

Temperature Mean Normalized Gross Error (MNGE)

Mean Normalized Bias (NMB)

Index of Agreement (IOA) ≤ 2.0 K

≤ ±0.5 m/s

≥ 0.8

Humidity Mean Normalized Gross Error (MNGE)

Mean Normalized Bias (NMB)

Index of Agreement (IOA) ≤ 2.0 g/kg

≤ ±1.0 g/kg

≥ 0.6

The MM5 and CALMET comparisons to observations for CTEX3 and CTEX5 are provided in the

Appendix. The key findings of the CTEX5 MM5 and CALMET model performance evaluation are

as follows:

• The MM5 performance using the MRF PBL scheme (EXP2A

‐ C) was extremely poor. For

example the temperature exhibited an underestimation bias of over ‐ 4 °K, compared to

the benchmark of ≤ ±0.5 °K. Thus, MM5 sensitivity simulations using MRF PBL scheme

were discontinued.

• The MM5 wind speed, and especially wind direction, model performance is noticeably

better when FDDA was utilized.

• The “A” series of CALMET runs (RMAX1/RMAX2

= 500/1000) always has a wind speed

underestimation bias.

• The “C” and “D” series of CALMET sensitivity tests exhibit wind performance that is

comparable to the MM5 simulation used as input to CALMET.

• The 36 km and 12 km MM5 simulations exhibit substantially better model performance

than the 80 km MM5 simulation.

The CTEX3 and CTEX5 CALMET comparison for wind speed and direction needs to be viewed

with the caveat that because the winds are used as input in some of the sensitivity tests, then

this is not a true independent evaluation. Thus, it is at all not surprising that the CALMET wind76 performance at the monitor locations is improved in the CALMET sensitivity tests that used

meteorological observations as input compared to those that used no observations. As clearly

pointed out in the 2009 Revised IWAQM Guidance (EPA, 2009a), the better wind model

performance at the monitors produced when CALMET blends observed surface wind data in the

wind fields can produce unrealistic discontinuities and other artifacts in the wind fields.

5.4 CALPUFF MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION FOR CAPTEX

CALPUFF was applied for the CTEX3 and CTEX5 tracer release field experiments using the

meteorological inputs corresponding to each of the meteorological sensitivity tests given in

Table 5

‐ 6. Figure 5

‐ 1, presented earlier, displays the locations of the CTEX3 (Dayton, Ohio) and

CTEX5 (Sudbury, Ontario) tracer release sites and the tracer monitoring network in

northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada.

A common CALPUFF model configuration was used in all sensitivity tests. This was done to

isolate the sensitivity of the model to the different meteorological inputs and not confound the

interpretation by changing the CALPUFF model configuration. The CALPUFF model

configuration used the options listed in Table 5

‐ 8. Mostly default options were utilized for

CALPUFF. One parameter that was not the default value was for vertical puff splitting. The

default for vertical puff splitting is to turn it on using the vertical puff splitting flag (IRESPLIT) for

just hour 17. After the vertical puff splitting flag is turned on a puff performs vertical puff

splitting if certain criteria are met based on criteria using the ZISPLIT and ROLDMAX parameters

for which default values were specified (see discussion on CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity

tests for the ETEX experiment in Chapter 6 for more details). Once a puff splits in the vertical,

the vertical puff splitting is turned off and the puff is not allowed to split until after the puff

splitting flag is turned on again at hour 17. In the CTEX3 and CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity

simulations, the IRESPLIT input was set to turn on the vertical puff splitting flag 24 hours a day

so that vertical puff splitting flag for all puffs is always on so vertical puff splitting will always

occur whenever the other criteria are met.77 Table 5

‐ 8. CALPUFF model configuration used in the CTEX3 and CTEX5 sensitivity tests.

Option Value Comment

MGAUSS 1 Use Gaussian vertical distribution initially

MCTADJ 0 No terrain adjustment

MSLUG 0 Near

‐ field puffs not modeled as slugs

MTRANS 1 Use transitional plume rise

MTIP 1 Use stack tip downwash

MBDW 1 Use ISC method to simulate building downwash

MSHEAR 1 Model vertical wind shear above stack top

MSPLI T 1 Use puff splitting

MCHEM 0 No chemistry

MWE T 0 No wet deposition

MDRY 0 No dry deposition

MDISP 2 Dispersion from internally calculate sigma

‐ y and sigma

‐ z using turbulence

MTURBW 3 Both sigma

‐ y and sigma

‐ z from PROFILE.DAT

MDISP3 3 PG dispersion coefficients for rural areas

MCTURB 2 Use AERMOD subroutine for turbulence variables

MROUGH 0 Don’t adjust sigma

‐ y and sigma

‐ z for roughness

MPARTL 1 Use partial plume penetration

MTINV 0 Compute strength of temperature inversion

MPDF 1 Use PDF for dispersion under convective conditions

NSPLIT 3 Split puff into 3 puffs when performing vertical puff splitting

IRESPLIT 24*1 Keep vertical puff splitting flag on all the time (default is just hour 17 = 1, rest 0)

ZISPLIT 100 Vertical splitting is allowed if mixing height exceeds 100 m.

ROLDMAX 0.25 Vertical splitting is allowed if ratio of maximum to current mixing height is > 0.25

NSPLITH 5 Number of puffs that result when horizontal splitting is performed

SYSPLITH 1.0 Minimum width of puff (in grid cells) before horizontal splitting

SHSPLITH 2.0 Minimum puff elongation factor for horizontal splitting

CNSPLITH 1.E

‐ 7 Minimum concentrations (g/m 3 ) in puff for horizontal splitting

5.4.1 CALPUFF CTEX3 Model Performance Evaluation

Because of the large number of CALPUFF sensitivity tests performed for the CTEX3 tracer test

field experiment, they are first compared by groups that used a common MM5/MM4

prognostic meteorological grid resolution output as input into CALMET or MMIF. We then

compare the CALPUFF sensitivity tests using different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions but common

CALMET/MMIF configurations to determine the sensitivity of MM4/MM5 grid resolution on

CALPUFF tracer model performance.

5.4.1.1 CALPUFF CTEX3 Model Evaluation using 80 km MM4 Data

Figure 5

‐ 2 displays the spatial model performance statistics metrics for the CALPUFF CTEX3

sensitivity tests that used the 80 km MM4 data. There are variations in the rankings across the

spatial statistical performance metrics for the CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the 80 km MM4

data. These sensitivity tests use the finest CALMET grid resolution tested in this series (12 km

vs. 18 km) and minimizes the influence of the meteorological observations either through the

lowest RMAX1/RMAX2 values (EXP1C) or not using meteorological observations at all by

running CALMET in the NOOBS = 2 mode (EXP1D).78 Figure 5

‐ 2. Spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUF sensitivity tests that

used the 80 km MM4 data

.

The global model performance statistics for the CALPUFF sensitivity tests using 80 km MM4

data are compared in Figure 5

‐ 3.

Figure 5

‐ 3a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 80 km MM4 data. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)

‐ 18% ‐ 16% ‐ 14% ‐ 12% ‐ 10% ‐ 8% ‐ 6% ‐ 4% ‐ 2% 0%BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Normalized Mean Square Error

(NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2 1.4BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter

(KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)79 Figure 5

‐ 3b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 80 km MM4 data.

5.4.1.2 CALPUFF CTEX3 Model Evaluation using 36 km MM5 Data

For the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the 36 km MM5 data, there are 9 CALPUFF

sensitivity tests 7 that use CALMET meteorological inputs with 12 and 4 km grid resolution and

different OA options and one that uses MMIF meteorological inputs that as a MM5 “pass

through” tool uses 36 km grid resolution. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

FA2

FA5

‐ 0.1 ‐ 0.08 ‐ 0.06 ‐ 0.04 ‐ 0.02

0BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Pearson's Correlation Coefficient

(PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6BASEABASEBBASECEXP1AEXP1BEXP1CEXP1D Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^280 Figure 5

‐ 4. Spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUF sensitivity tests that

used the 36 km MM5 data.

The global model performance statistics for the CALPUFF sensitivity tests using 36 km MM5

data are shown in Figure 5

‐ 5.

Figure 5

‐ 5a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 36 km MM5 data. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)

‐ 18% ‐ 16% ‐ 14% ‐ 12% ‐ 10% ‐ 8% ‐ 6% ‐ 4% ‐ 2% 0%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Normalized Mean Square Error

(NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2 1.4EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter

(KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)81 Figure 5

‐ 5b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 36 km MM5 data.

5.4.1.3 CALPUFF CTEX3 Model Evaluation using 12 km MM5 Data

The spatial model performance statistical metrics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using

12 km MM5 data are shown in Figure 5

‐ 6. 0% 4% 8% 12% 16%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KM_MMIF Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

FA2

FA5

‐ 0.12

0 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.48EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KM_MMIF Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^282 Figure 5

‐ 6. Spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUF sensitivity tests that

used the 12 km MM5 data. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KMMIF Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KMMIF False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KMMIF Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KMMIF Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)83 Figure 5

‐ 7a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 12 km MM5 data.

Figure 5

‐ 7b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 12 km MM5 data (high scores indicate better model performance). ‐ 20% ‐ 15% ‐ 10% ‐ 5% 0%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KMMIF Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KMMIF Normalized Mean Square Error

(NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2 1.4EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KMMIF Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KMMIF Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter

(KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KM_MMIF Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

FA2

FA5

‐ 0.12

0 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.48EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KMMIF Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D12KM_MMIF Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^284 5.4.1.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX3 Model Evaluation using Different MM4/MM5 Grid

Resolutions

In the final series of CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests we grouped the “B” and “D” series of

CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests that use the EPA

‐ FLM recommended RMAX1/RMAX2

settings (100/200) and no met observations, respectively, using the various MM5 data and grid

resolutions in CALMET with the 12KM_MMIF and 36KM_MMIF CALPUFF sensitivity tests. The

spatial model performance statistics are shown in Figure 5

‐ 8. The 36KM_MMIF and

12KM_MMIF have the best and second best FMS statistics (36% and 32%) followed by EXP3D

and EXP6D (29%). The worst performing FMS statistics are given by the “B” series of

CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests with values ranging from 23% to 25%. The 36KM_MMIF has

by far the lowest (best) FAR value (68%) followed by 12KM _MMIF (74%) with the “B” series of

CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests having the worst (highest) FAR values that approach 80%. A

clear pattern is seen in the POD statistic for the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests with the “D”

series using no met observations clearly performing better (33%) than the “B” series (19% to

25%). However, the best performing CALPUFF sensitivity test using the POD statistics is

36KM_MMIF (36%). Oddly, the 12KM_MMIF is one of the worst performing configurations

with POD value the same as many of the “B” series (25%). 36KM_MMIF (20%) is also the best

performing CALPUFF sensitivity test according to the TS statistic with the no met observations

(“D” series) CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests (15% to 16%) and 12KM_MMIF (15%) having

better TS values than when met observations are used with CALMET (10% to 14%).

Figure 5

‐ 8. Spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUF sensitivity tests using

different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions.

For the FOEX and KSP global statistical metrics, the “D” series of CALPUFF/CALPUFF sensitivity

tests is clearly performing better than the “B” series with 12KM_MMIF one of the worst

performing model configurations for these two statistics (Figure 5

‐ 9a). However, the “B”

series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests is exhibiting lower bias (FB) and error (NMSE) than 65% 70% 75% 80% 85%BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

15% 20% 25% 30% 35%BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

10% 15% 20% 25%BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)85 the “D” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests with the 36KM_MMIF exhibiting the lowest

bias and error statistics; 12KM_MMIF has the second lowest FB and third lowest NMSE. For the

within a factor of 2 and 5 statistics the “D” series performs better than the “B” series of

CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests. The 12KM_MMIF has by far the lowest FA2 metric but has a

FA5 metric that is comparable to the “D” series of CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests. By far the

best performing model configuration for the FA5 metric is 36KM_MMIF whose value (15%) is

almost double the next best performing CALPUFF model configurations (7% to 9%). The

36KM_MMIF (0.43) followed closely by the 12KM_MMIF (0.40) are by far the best performing

sensitivity tests according to the correlation coefficient statistical metric with the

CALPUFF/CALMET tracer estimates showing a small negative correlation with the observations

(

‐ 0.07 to

‐ 0.08). According to the composite RANK statistic, 36KM_MMIF (1.61) is the best

performing CALPUFF sensitivity test of this group followed by 12KM_MMIF (1.43). The

CALPUFF/CALMET RANK statistics range from 1.16 to 1.32 with the “D” series typically

performing better (~1.3) than the “B” series (~1.2) with the exception of EXP1B (1.3).

Figure 5

‐ 9a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions.

‐ 20% ‐ 15% ‐ 10% ‐ 5% 0%BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

35 40 45 50 55 60 65BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF Normalized Mean Square Error

(NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter

(KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)86 Figure 5

‐ 9b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions (high scores indicate better model performance).

5.4.1.5 Rankings of CTEX3 CALPUFF Sensitivity Tests using the RANK Statistic

The ranking of all of the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the composite RANK model

performance statistics is given in Table 5

‐ 9. The 36KM_MMIF (1.61) is the highest ranked

CALPUFF sensitivity test using RANK followed by 12KM_MMIF (1.43) which is very close to

EXP3A and EXP4A that are tied for third with a RANK value of 1.40. It is interesting to note that

the EXP3A and EXP4A CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity test that uses the, respectively, 36 km and

12 km MM5 data with 12 km CALMET grid resolution and RMAX1/RMAX2 values of 500/1000 is

tied for third best performing CALPUFF/CALMET configuration using the RANK statistic, but the

same model configuration with alternative RMAX1/RMAX2 values of 10/100 (EXP3C and EXP4C)

degrades the model performance to the worst performing CALPUFF configuration according to

the RANK statistics with a RANK value of 1.12.

Based on the RANK statistic and the CALPUFF sensitivity test rankings in Table 5

‐ 9 we conclude

the following for the CTEX3 CALPUFF sensitivity tests:

• The CALPUFF MMIF sensitivity tests are the best performing configuration for the CTEX3

experiments.

• The CALPUFF/CALMET “B” series (RMAX1/RMAX2

= 100/200) appears to be the worst

performing configuration for RMAX1/RMAX2.

• The CALMET/CALPUFF “A” series seems to be the best performing RMAX1/RMAX2 setting

(500/1000) followed by the “C” series (10/100) then “D” series (no met observations).

• Ignoring the “B” series of sensitivity tests, the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests that use

higher MM5 grid resolution (36 and 12 km) tend to produce better model performance

than those that used the 80 km MM4 data. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KM_MMIF36KM_MMIF Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

FA2

FA5

‐ 0.12

0 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.48BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8BASEBEXP1BEXP1DEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KM_MMIF36KM_MMIF Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^287 • When using the “A” series model configuration, the use of higher CALMET resolution does

not produce better CALPUFF model performance, however for the “C” and “D” series of

CALMET runs use of higher CALMET grid resolution does produce better CALPUFF model

performance.

• Note that the finding that CALPUFF/CALMET model performance using CALMET wind

fields based on setting RMAX1/RMAX2

= 100/200 (i.e., the “B” series) produces worse

CALPUFF model performance for simulating the observed atmospheric tracer

concentrations is in contrast to the CALMET evaluation that found the “B” series produced

winds closest to observations (see Appendices A and B). Since the CALPUFF tracer

evaluation is an independent evaluation of the CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system,

whereas the CALMET surface wind evaluation is not, the CALPUFF tracer evaluation may

be a better indication of the best performing CALMET configuration. The CALMET “B”

series approach for blending the wind observations in the wind fields may just be the best

approach for getting the CALMET winds to match the observations at the monitoring sites,

but at the expense of degrading the wind fields.

Table 5

‐ 9. Final Rankings of CALPUFF CTEX3 Sensitivity Tests.

Ranking Sensitivity

Test RANK

Statistics MM5

(km) CALGRID

(km) RMAX1/RMAX2 Met

Obs

1 36KM_MMIF 1.610 36

‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐

2 12KM_MMIF 1.430 12

‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐

3 EXP3A 1.400 36 12 500/1000 Yes

4 EXP4A 1.400 12 12 500/1000 Yes

5 EXP5C 1.380 36 4 10/100 Yes

6 EXP6C 1.380 12 4 10/100 Yes

7 EXP1C 1.340 36 18 10/100 Yes

8 EXP5A 1.340 36 4 500/1000 Yes

9 EXP6A 1.340 12 4 500/1000 Yes

10 EXP5D 1.310 36 4

‐‐ No

11 EXP6D 1.310 12 4

‐‐ No

12 EXP1B 1.300 36 18 100/200 Yes

13 EXP3D 1.300 36 12

‐‐ No

14 EXP4D 1.300 12 12

‐‐ No

15 BASEA 1.290 80 18 500/1000 Yes

16 EXP1D 1.290 36 18

‐‐ No

17 EXP1A 1.280 36 18 500/1000 Yes

18 EXP3B 1.220 36 12 100/200 Yes

19 EXP5B 1.220 36 4 100/200 Yes

20 EXP4B 1.220 12 12 100/200 Yes

21 EXP6B 1.220 12 4 100/200 Yes

22 BASEC 1.170 80 18 10/100 Yes

23 BASEB 1.160 80 18 100/200 Yes

24 EXP3C 1.120 36 12 10/100 Yes

25 EXP4C 1.120 12 12 10/200 Yes

5.4.2 CALPUFF CTEX5 Model Performance Evaluation

The model performance of the CALPUFF sensitivity tests for the CTEX5 (October 25, 1983) field

experiment are presented below grouped by MM5 grid resolution. The MM5 output were used

as input to the CALMET or MMIF meteorological drivers for CALPUFF, as was done for the88 CTEX3 discussed in Section 5.4.1. As noted in Table 5

‐ 6, CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests were

not performed for the EXP1 and EXP2 series of experiments.

5.4.1.1 CALPUFF CTEX5 Model Evaluation using 80 km MM5 Data

The spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the 80

km MM5 data are shown in Figure 5

‐ 10. The BASEA and BASEB sensitivity tests are performing

the best followed by BASEC, then BASED with 80KM_MMIF coming in last.

Figure 5

‐ 10. Spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUF sensitivity tests that

used the 80 km MM5 data.

Although 80KM_MMIF has the lowest FOEX statistic, for all the other global statistic it is the

worst or almost worst performing CALPUFF sensitivity test using 80 km MM5 data. BASEA has

the best bias, error, FA2 and FA5 statistics of this group with either BASEB or BASEC coming in

second and then BASED next to last and 80KM_MMIF last. The RANK composite statistics ranks

BASEA (2.06) and BASEC (2.05) the highest followed by BASEB (1.82) and BASED (1.79) next and

80KM_MMIF (1.42) in last. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)89 Figure 5

‐ 11a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 80 km MM5data (lower values indicate better performance).

Figure 5

‐ 11b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 80 km MM5 data (higher values indicate better performance).

5.4.2.2 CALPUFF CTEX5 Model Evaluation using 36 km MM5 Data

Figure 5

‐ 12 displays the spatial statistical metrics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using

the 36 km MM5 data. Note that the CALMET simulation for EXP3D encountered an error in

HTOLD so no CALPUFF sensitivity modeling results are available. The “A” and “B” series of

‐ 20% ‐ 15% ‐ 10% ‐ 5% 0%BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

0 5 10 15 20BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF Normalized Mean Square Error

(NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter

(KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

FA2

FA5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KMMIF Pearson's Correlation Coefficient

(PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4BASEABASEBBASECBASED80KM_MMIF Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^290 CALPUFF sensitivity simulations are performing best for the spatial performance statistics with

the 36KM_MMIF performing worst.

Figure 5

‐ 12. Spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUF sensitivity tests that

used the 36 km MM5 data.

The global statistics for the CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the 36 km MM5 data are shown in

Figure 5

‐ 13. EXP5D and 36KM_MMIF have the FOEX that is closest to zero. The EXP5B and

EXP5D sensitivity simulations have the lowest bias and error followed by EXP3C with 36KM

‐

MMIF having the worst bias and error metrics. The lowest (best) KSP statistics is given by

EXP5D followed by 36KM_MMIF and EXP3C. EXP3B and EXP5A have the best FA2 and FA5

values, with 36KM_MMIF having the worst ones. EXP3A, EXP3C and EXP5A all have correlation

coefficients above 0.7 with 36km_MMIF having the lowest correlation coefficient that is below

0.3. Using the overall composite RANK statistics, EXP3C and EXP5D (2.1) are ranked first

followed by EXP3A and EXP5A (2.0) with 36KM_MMIF (1.4) having the lowest RANK statistic. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)91 Figure 5

‐ 13a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 36 km MM5 data.

Figure 5

‐ 13b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 36 km MM5 data (higher values indicate better performance).

5.4.2.3 CALPUFF CTEX5 Model Evaluation using 12 and 4 km MM5 Data

The spatial statistics for the CALPUFF/CALMET and CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests using the 12

km MM5 data along with the 4 km MM5 CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity test are given in Figure 5

‐

‐ 25% ‐ 20% ‐ 15% ‐ 10% ‐ 5% 0%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

0 5 10 15 20EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Normalized Mean Square Error

(NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter (KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KM_MMIF Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

FA2

FA5

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KMMIF Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5EXP3AEXP3BEXP3CEXP3DEXP5AEXP5BEXP5CEXP5D36KM_MMIF Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^292 14. Across all the spatial statistics, EXP6A performs the best with EXP4A, EXP4B, EXP6B and

4KM_MMIF next best and 12KM_MMIF being worst.

Figure 5

‐ 14. Spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUF sensitivity tests that

used the 12 and 4 km MM5 data.

The lowest error of the 12 km MM5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests is given by EXP4B and EXP6A

‐ C,

with 12KM_MMIF having the highest error (Figure 5

‐ 15). EXP6B has the lowest bias follows by

EXP6C and EXP4B, with 12KM_MMIF having the largest bias. EXP6A and EXP6B have the most

model predictions within a factor of 2 of the observations and EXP4C has the most within a

factor of 5. The CALMET/CALPUFF correlation coefficients range from 0.57 to 0.76 with EXP4A

(0.76) and EXP6C (0.75) have the highest values and EXP6B (0.57) having the lowest value. The

4KM_MMIF has an even lower correlation coefficient (0.48) with the 12KM_MMIF having no to

slight anti

‐ correlation with the observed values (

‐ 0.07). According to the RANK composite

statistics the best performing 12 km CALPUFF sensitivity test in EXP6C (2.19) followed by EXP6A

(2.02) and EXP4A (1.98) with 12KM_MMIF (1.28) performing worst. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KMMIF12KMMIF Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KMMIF12KMMIF False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KMMIF12KMMIF Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KMMIF12KMMIF Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)93 Figure 5

‐ 15a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 12 km MM5 data.

Figure 5

‐ 15b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using the 12 km MM5 data (higher values indicate better performance).

5.4.2.4 Comparison of CALPUFF CTEX5 Model Evaluation using Different MM5 Grid Resolutions

This section analyzes the CALPUFF model performance across different MM5 and CALMET grid

resolutions using the “B” and “D” series of CALPUFF/CALMET and the CALPUFF/MMIF

‐ 25% ‐ 20% ‐ 15% ‐ 10% ‐ 5% 0%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KMMIF12KMMIF Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

0 5 10 15 20EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KMMIF12KMMIF Normalized Mean Square Error

(NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KMMIF12KMMIF Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KMMIF12KMMIF Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter

(KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 4% 8% 12% 16%EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KM_MMIF12KM_MMIF Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

FA2

FA5

‐ 0.1

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KMMIF12KMMIF Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2.4EXP4AEXP4BEXP4CEXP4DEXP6AEXP6BEXP6CEXP6D4KM_MMIF12KM_MMIF Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^294 sensitivity tests. The “B” series (EXP4B, EXP5B, EXP6B and EXP3B) and 4KM_MMIF have the

highest FMS values between 25% and 30% with 36KM_MMIF and 80KM_MMIF have the lowest

FMS scores between 10% and 15%. Again the “B” series of CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests

have the best FAR scores with the worst scores given by the 12KM, 36KM and 80KM MMIF

sensitivity tests. The “D” series using no met observations has the worst (highest) FAR scores of

the CALPUFF/CALMET sensitivity tests. EXP3B has the best POD value follows by EXP4B with

EXP5B, EXP5D, EXP6B and 4KM_MMIF ties for third best; the 12KM, 36KM and 80KM MMIF

CALPUFFs have the worst FAR scores. Similar results are seen with the TS statistics with the

four top performing sensitivity tests ordered by EXP4B, EXP5B, EXP6B and 4KM_MMIF,

Figure 5

‐ 16. Spatial model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUF sensitivity tests using

different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions.

Although EXP5D has the lowest error, the “B” series of sensitivity tests consistency have the

lowest bias and error (Figure 5

‐ 17). The 12KM_MMIF has the highest bias and error followed

by the 80KM_MMIF sensitivity test. The “D” series of sensitivity tests have the best (lowest) KS

parameter at ~30% with the “B” series of tests have the worst (highest) KSP at ~50% with the

other sensitivity test in between. 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF4KMMIF80KMMIF False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF4KMMIF80KMMIF Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF4KMMIF80KMMIF Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF4KMMIF80KMMIF Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)95 The best sensitivity test for predicting the observed tracer within a factor of 2 and 5 is EXP3B

followed by EXP6B with the 12KM, 36KM and 80KM MMIF runs being the worst. The

correlation coefficients for the CALPUFF/CALMET CTEX sensitivity tests in this group range from

0.57 to 0.69 with 4km_MMIF being the best performing MMIF configuration with a 0.48 PCC

with the other MMIF runs being much worse. The composite RANK statistics scores the

CALPUFF/CALMET and 4KM_MMIF sensitivity tests in the 1.8 to 2.1 range with EXP5D (2.1)

scoring the highest followed by EXP4D (1.99), EXP6D (1.99), EXP6B (1.94), EXP5B (1.89) and

EXP4B (1.86). The 12KM, 36KM and 80KM CALPUFF/MMIF sensitivity tests have the lowest

RANK scores (1.28 to 1.42).

Figure 5

‐ 17a. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions.

‐ 25% ‐ 20% ‐ 15% ‐ 10% ‐ 5% 0%BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF4KMMIF80KMMIF Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

0 5 10 15 20 25BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF4KMMIF80KMMIF Normalized Mean Square Error

(NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF4KMMIF80KMMIF Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

20% 30% 40% 50% 60%BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF4KMMIF80KMMIF Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter

(KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)96 Figure 5

‐ 17b. Global model performance statistics for the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests

using different MM4/MM5 grid resolutions (higher values indicate better performance).

5.4.2.5 Rankings of CTEX5 CALPUFF Sensitivity Tests using the RANK Statistic

Table 5

‐ 10 ranks the model performance of the CTEX5 CALPUFF sensitivity tests using the RANK

composite statistic. Outside of the 12KM, 36KM and 80KM MMIF CALPUFF sensitivity tests

being by far the worst performing configurations with RANK values in the 1.28 to 1.42 range,

the remaining sensitivity tests have RANK values in the 1.7 to 2.2 range, with the 4KM_MMIF

run being in the lower end of this range. Examining trends in the CALPUFF sensitivity tests, the

EXP6 series that uses the highest MM5 (12 km) and CALMET (4 km) grid resolution tends to

have better model performance, whereas the “B” series of sensitivity tests tends to have worst

model performance. Although the BASEA scenario is ranked 4 th

, the other BASE series using the

80 km MM5 and 18 km CALMET grid resolution have RANK scores on the lower end of the

distribution. Based on these results we conclude the following for the CTEX5 sensitivity tests:

• Use of higher MM5 grid resolution (12 km) produces better CALPUFF model performance

using both CALMET and MMIF.

5.5 CONCLUSIONS OF THE CAPTEX TRACER SENSITIVITY TESTS

There are some differences and similarities in CALPUFF’s ability to simulate the observed tracer

concentrations in the CTEX3 and CTEX5 field experiments. The overall conclusions of the

evaluation of the CALPUFF model using the CAPTEX tracer test field experiment data can be

summarized as follows:

• Regarding use of CALMET versus MMIF as a meteorological driver for CALPUFF, no

definitive conclusion can be made since the CALPUFF/MMIF was the best performing

model configuration for CTEX3 and the worst performing configuration for CTEX5. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KM_MMIF36KM_MMIF4KM_MMIF80KM_MMIF Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

FA2

FA5

‐ 0.2 ‐ 0.1

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KMMIF36KMMIF4KMMIF80KMMIF Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2.4BASEDEXP3BEXP3DEXP4BEXP4DEXP5BEXP5DEXP6BEXP6D12KM_MMIF36KM_MMIF4KM_MMIF80KM_MMIF Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^297 Table 5

‐ 10. Final Rankings of CALPUFF CTEX5 Sensitivity Tests using the RANK statistic.

Ranking Sensitivity

Test RANK

Statistics MM5

(km) CALGRID

(km) RMAX1/RMAX2 Met

Obs

1 EXP6C 2.19 12 4 10/100 Yes

2 EXP5D 2.10 36 4

‐‐ No

3 BASEA 2.06 80 18 500/1000 Yes

4 BASEC 2.05 80 18 10/100 Yes

5 EXP5A 2.03 36 4 500/1000 Yes

6 EXP6A 2.02 12 4 500/1000 Yes

7 EXP4D 2.00 12 12

‐‐ No

8 EXP6D 1.99 12 4

‐‐ No

9 EXP4A 1.98 12 12 500/1000 Yes

10 EXP6B 1.94 12 4 100/200 Yes

11 EXP5B 1.89 36 4 100/200 Yes

12 EXP4B 1.86 12 12 100/200 Yes

13 BASEB 1.82 80 18 100/200 Yes

14 EXP5C 1.80 36 4 10/100 Yes

15 BASED 1.79 80 18

‐‐ No

16 EXP3A 1.79 36 12 10/100 Yes

17 EXP3B 1.79 36 12 100/200 Yes

18 EXP3C 1.79 36 12 500/1000 Yes

19 EXP3D 1.79 36 12

‐‐ No

20 4KM_MMIF 1.78 4

‐‐ ‐‐ No

21 EXP4C 1.72 12 12 10/100 Yes

22 36KM_MMIF 1.42 36

‐‐ ‐‐ No

23 80KM_MMIF 1.42 80

‐‐ ‐‐ No

24 12KM_MMIF 1.28 12

‐‐ ‐‐ No

• The use of 12 to 36 km resolution MM5 data tends to produce better CALPUFF model

performance than using coarse grid data (e.g., 80 km).

• Regarding the effects of the RMAX1/RMAX2 parameters on CALPUFF/CALMET model

performance, the “A” series (500/1000) is performing best for CTEX3 but the “C” series

(10/100) is performing best for CTEX5 with both CTEX3 and CTEX5 agreeing that the “B”

series (100/200) is the worst performing setting for RMAX1/RMAX2.

‐ This is in contrast to the CALMET surface wind model evaluation that found the EPA

‐

FLM Clarification Memorandum recommended settings used in the “B” series of

CALMET experiments produced the wind fields that most closely matched

observations (see Appendices A and B).

‐ However, the CALMET surface wind evaluation was not a valid independent

evaluation since surface wind observations are also used as input to CALMET for

some of the experiments.98 

## 6.0 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT

6.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE 1994 EUROPEAN TRACER EXPERIMENT

The European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) was initiated in 1992 by the European Commission

(EC), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and World Meteorological Organization

(WMO) to address many of the questions that arose from the 1986 Chernobyl accident

regarding the capabilities of LRT models and the ability to properly handle and disseminate

large volumes of data. ETEX was designed to validate long

‐ range transport models used for

emergency response situations and to develop a database which could be used for model

evaluation and development purposes.

6.1.1 ETEX Field Study

Two releases of a perflurocarbon tracer called perfluromonomethylcyclohexane (PMCH) were

made in October and November 1994 from France. For this evaluation, model simulations are

focused upon the first PMCH release. The first ETEX release has been used extensively to

evaluate operational LRT models for numerous countries so was also used in this study. In

many ways, it represents an ideal database for LRT evaluation because of the volume and high

frequency of observations taken.

The PMCH was released at a constant rate of approximately 8 g/s (340 kg total) for 12 hours

beginning at 1600 UTC on 23 October 1994 from Monterfil, France. The release of PMCH was a

dynamic release, with an outlet temperature of 84°C and velocity of 47.6 m/s (JRC, 2008). Air

concentrations were sampled at 168 monitoring sites in 17 European countries with a sampling

frequency of every three hours for approximately 90 hours. Figure 6

‐ 1 displays the location of

the PMCH release point in northwestern France and the array of sampling receptors.99 Figure 6

‐ 1. Locations of the PMCH tracer release point in Monterfil

, France and sampling

receptors for the 1994 European Tracer Experiment (ETEX).

6.1.2 Synoptic Conditions

Numerous synoptic surface and upper air observations were made by participating

meteorological agencies as part of this experiment. Two separate extratropical cyclonic

systems were present over the European continent at the time of the release. A strong

extratropical cyclone was located over the North Sea with a central pressure of 980 mb. A

second, significantly weaker, extratropical cyclone was located near the Balkan Peninsula over

the Black Sea, having a central pressure of 1010 mb. These cyclonic systems were important to

the transport of the PMCH tracer cloud. Figure 6

‐ 2 depicts the locations of the extratropical

cyclonic systems during the ETEX field study.100 Figure 6

‐ 2a. Surface synoptic meteorological conditions for Europe at 0000 UTC on October

24, 1994 eight hours after the release of the PMCH tracer in ETEX (Source:

http://rem.jrc.ec.europa.eu/etex/).

Figure 6

‐ 2b. Surface synoptic meteorological conditions for Europe at 0000 UTC on October

25, 1994 32 hours after the release of the PMCH tracer in ETEX (Source:

http://rem.jrc.ec.europa.eu/etex/).101 Figure 6

‐ 2c. Surface synoptic meteorological conditions for Europe at 0000 UTC on October

26, 1994 56 hours after the release of the PMCH tracer in ETEX (Source:

http://rem.jrc.ec.europa.eu/etex/).

Figure 6

‐ 3 displays the spatial distribution of the observed PMCH tracer concentration in pico

‐

grams per cubic meter (pgm ‐ 3 ) 24, 36, 48 and 60 hours after the release in Monterfil, France.

During the first 24 hours after the release of the PMCH, the tracer cloud was advected generally

east

‐ northeast from the release point in northwestern France into the Netherlands and

Luxembourg and into western Germany. By 36 hours after the initial release, the tracer cloud

had advected well into Germany (Figure 6

‐ 3, top right). In this region, the wind flow split

between the two cyclonic systems northwest and southeast of Germany (see Figure 6

‐ 2),

causing the tracer cloud to essentially bifurcate, with one portion advecting around the core of

the cyclonic system over the North Sea, and the other portion advecting southeast towards the

cyclonic system in the Balkan Peninsula region. 48 and 60 hours after the tracer release (Figure

6

‐ 3, lower panels), the tracer cloud stretches from Norway to the Black Sea in a narrow

northwest to southeast orientation.102 Figure 6

‐ 3a. Distribution of the observed PMCH tracer concentrations (pgm ‐ 3 ) 24 (top right),

36 (top right), 48 (bottom left) and 60 (bottom right) hours after the release.

6.2 MODEL CONFIGURATION AND APPLICATION

6.2.1 Experimental Design

The objectives of the LRT model evaluation using the ETEX field study database was somewhat

different than the other three tracer test evaluations. In the GP80, SRL75 and CAPTEX tracer

test LRT model evaluations, one major objective was an evaluation of the CALPUFF LRT

dispersion model using two different sets of meteorological inputs, one based on the CALMET

diagnostic wind model and the other using the MMIF WRF/MM5 pass

‐ through tool. However,

in the ETEX LRT model tracer test evaluation an objective was to use the same meteorological

inputs in all of the LRT dispersion models. This approach is similar to the one taken by Chang

and co

‐ workers (2003) who conducted an evaluation of three Lagrangian puff models

(HPAC/SCIPUFF, VLSTRACK, and CALMET/CALPUFF). While all three puff models are based on a

Gaussian puff formulation, these models varied significantly in terms of the level of

sophistication of their technical formulation. Chang and co

‐ workers (2003) proposed a

framework to perform an objective and meaningful evaluation when such models vary

significantly in their formulation. A primary focus of their model evaluation framework103 centered upon the use of the same observed meteorological data and similar modeling

domains. To the extent practical, default model options were selected for all models in their

evaluation. Reflecting that evaluation paradigm, a major focus of the LRT model evaluation

using the ETEX database in this study was to provide a common source of meteorological fields

to each of the dispersion models evaluated.

Five different LRT dispersion models were evaluated using the ETEX database. Each of the LRT

models in this exercise requires three

‐ dimensional meteorological fields as input to the model.

For the majority of these models, meteorological fields from prognostic meteorological models

are the primary source of the meteorological inputs. However, CALPUFF and SCIPUFF typically

rely upon their own diagnostic meteorological models to provide three

‐ dimensional

meteorological fields to the dispersion model. In cases where prognostic meteorological model

data are ingested to set the initial conditions within the diagnostic meteorological model, much

of the original prognostic meteorological data is not preserved, and key parameters are

rediagnosed. This compromises a key component of the evaluation paradigm of Chang et al.

(2003) that we have adopted for the ETEX evaluation, namely a common meteorological

database. The Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) software program (Emery and Brashers,

2009) was developed to facilitate direct ingestion of prognostic meteorological model data by

the LRT dispersion model, bypassing the diagnostic meteorological model component and

rediagnosing algorithms effectively overcoming the challenge to this evaluation paradigm.

6.2.2 Meteorological Inputs

During the original ATMES

‐ II project, participating agencies during ETEX were required to

calculate concentration fields for their respective models using analysis fields from the

European Center for Medium

‐ Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). ECMWF analysis fields were

available at 6

‐ hour intervals and a horizontal resolution of 0.5° (~50 km) latitude

‐ longitude

(D’Amours, 1998). Participating agencies could also submit results obtained using different

meteorological analyses. Van Dop et al. (1998) and Nasstrom et al. (1998) found that increasing

the resolution of the input meteorological fields enhanced the performance of the dispersion

models evaluated in the ATMES

‐ II study. Similarly, Deng et al. (2004) found that SCIPUFF model

performance for the Cross

‐ Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) improved by increasing

meteorological model horizontal and vertical resolution, use of four dimensional data

assimilation (FDDA), and more advanced meteorological model physics. However, they also

noted that use of the more advanced physics options were responsible for more improvement

in model performance than merely increasing horizontal grid resolution.

For the LRT model evaluation exercise using the ETEX database presented in this report,

meteorological inputs were generated using a limited

‐ area mesoscale meteorological model to

produce higher temporally and spatially resolved meteorological data than used in the ATMES

‐ II

project. By producing more accurate meteorological fields, it should be possible to maximize

performance of the LRT models under evaluation in this study. Furthermore, by using a

common source of meteorological data between each of the five modeling systems, it reduces

the potential contribution of differences in meteorological data on dispersion model

performance and facilitates a more direct intercomparison of dispersion model results.

Hourly meteorological fields were derived from the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Meteorological

Model (MM5) Version 3.74 (Grell et al., 1995). MM5 was initialized with National Center for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data (NCAR, 2008). NCEP reanalysis fields are

available every 6 hours on a 2.5° x 2.5° (~275 km) grid. The MM5 horizontal grid resolution was104 36 kilometers and the vertical structure contained 43 vertical layers. Physics options were not

optimized for northern European operations, but were based upon more advanced physics

options available in MM5, reflecting the findings of Deng et al. (2004). Key MM5 options

included:

• ETA Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) scheme;

• Kain

‐ Fritsch II cumulus parameterization (Kain, 2004);

• Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) radiation scheme (Mlawer et al. 1997);

• NOAH land surface model (LSM) (Chen et al. 2001); and

• Dudhia Simple Ice microphysics scheme (Dudhia, 1989).

Four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) (Stauffer et al. 1990, 1991) was employed for this

study. “Analysis nudging” based upon the NCEP reanalysis fields were used with default values

for nudging strengths.

6.2.3 LRT Model Configuration and Inputs

Three distinct classes of LRT dispersion models were included as part of the ETEX tracer

evaluation including four Lagrangian models and one Eulerian model. CALPUFF Version 5.8

(Scire et al. 2000b) and SCIPUFF Version 2.303 (Sykes et al., 1998) are Lagrangian Gaussian puff

models. HYSPLIT Version 4.8 (Draxler 1997) and FLEXPART Version 6.2 (Siebert 2006) are

Lagrangian particle models. CAMx Version 5.2 (ENVIRON, 2010) is an Eulerian grid model. The

respective user’s guides provide a complete description of the technical formulations of each of

these models.

Both CALPUFF and SCIPUFF are based upon Gaussian puff formulation. The two puff models

have the advantage of more robust capabilities for source characterization, having the ability to

treat dispersion for point, area, or line sources. Furthermore, these models can more

accurately characterize dynamic releases of pollutants by accounting for initial plume rise of the

pollutant. Conversely, the two particle models are very limited in their capability to

characterize sources, having no direct ability to account for variations in source configurations

or consider plume rise. The CAMx grid model is limited in its ability to simulate “plumes” by the

grid resolution specified. CAMx includes a subgrid

‐ scale Plume

‐ in

‐ Grid (PiG) module to treat

the early evolution, transport and dispersion of point source plumes whose effect on model

performance was investigated using sensitivity tests.

Since plume rise varies from hour

‐ to

‐ hour as a function of ambient temperature, wind speed

and stability it is not possible to define a release height which would reflect this variation.

Therefore, a constant release height of 10 meters was assigned for the two particle models in

this study. This limitation of the particle models is problematic when comparing against models

such as CALPUFF, SCIPUFF and CAMx that can simulate dynamic releases of emissions and

calculate hour

‐ specific plume rise using hourly meteorological data. Iwasaki et al. (1998) found

that the initial release height assigned to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) particle model

had a large impact on the predicted ground level concentrations. Investigation of initial release

height sensitivity of the two particle models was beyond the scope of this evaluation. However,

this limitation should be noted when considering the uncertainty of concentration estimates

from the two particle models.

Each of the four models requires gridded meteorological fields for dispersion calculations.

CALPUFF normally uses output from the CALMET diagnostic wind field model (Scire et al.,105 2000a). SCIPUFF also has its own simplified mass

‐ consistent wind field processor referred to as

MC

‐ SCIPUFF (Sykes et al., 1998). Gridded meteorological fields are normally supplied to

HYSPLIT and FLEXPART using software that converts prognostic meteorological data into

formats that are directly ingested into the respective dispersion models. The CAMx model also

uses software to reformat output from a prognostic meteorological model into the variables

and formats used by CAMx.

Use of a diagnostic wind field model (DWM) as the primary method to supply meteorological

data to the dispersion models under review creates additional uncertainty in the

intercomparison of the five dispersion models. DWM’s, such as CALMET, have the ability to

ingest prognostic data from models such as the PSU/NCAR MM5 (Grell et al.,1995) or the

Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF

‐ ARW) (Skamarock et al. 2008) as

its first guess wind field. However, this method of using the prognostic meteorological data as

the first guess field for the DWM does not preserve the integrity of the original meteorological

field. For example, the CALMET DWM adjusts the wind fields for kinematic and thermodynamic

effects of terrain and also rediagnoses key meteorological parameters such as planetary

boundary layer heights. Thus, to conduct a proper evaluation of the dispersion models on the

same basis, each of the models should be operated with the same meteorological dataset. In

order to maintain consistency with this study objective, it would not have been appropriate to

use either MC

‐ SCIPUFF or CALMET to produce three

‐ dimensional meteorological fields for their

respective dispersion model.

In order to facilitate direct intercomparison of models using a common prognostic

meteorological dataset, it is necessary to supply meteorological fields to CALPUFF and SCIPUFF

in the same manner as the particle models and grid model included in this study. SCIPUFF has

the ability to ingest prognostic data sets directly in either MEDOC (Multiscale Environmental

Dispersion Over Complex terrain) (Sykes et al., 1998) or HPAC formats. The Pennsylvania State

University developed the MM5SCIPUFF utility program (A. Deng, pers. comm.) to convert MM5

fields into the MEDOC format which is directly ingested into the SCIPUFF. Similarly, the US EPA

developed the Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF) software to convert MM5 fields into the

CALPUFF meteorological input format (Emery and Brashers, 2009). With these two utility

programs, it was now possible to evaluate the five LRT models using a consistent set of

meteorological inputs.

Due to the inherent differences that exist between each of the five LRT models, it was not

possible to standardize dispersion model options. Rather, options selected for each class of

models were similar to the extent possible. For example, more advanced model features

(turbulence dispersion, puff splitting) were used for CALPUFF simulations as these represent

the state

‐ of

‐ the

‐ practice for puff dispersion models and are most consistent with the

capabilities of the SCIPUFF modeling system, helping to facilitate greater inter

‐ model

consistency for this evaluation.

CALPUFF is typically only recommended to distances of about 300 km or less (EPA, 2003). This

would effectively limit the useful range of CALPUFF to the first 24

‐ 36 hours of ETEX simulation.

However, recent enhancements to the CALPUFF modeling system include both horizontal and

vertical puff splitting, incorporating the effects of wind shear on puff growth, potentially

allowing for use of CALPUFF at distances greater than the nominal recommended limit of about

300 km, and allowing for more direct intercomparison with the two particle models and one

grid model used in this study which are free of this restriction. The default method for CALPUFF

vertical puff splitting is to allow for splitting to occur once per day by turning on the puff106 splitting flag near sunset (hour 17), artificially limiting the number of split puffs that are

generated by the model. However, for the ETEX evaluation puff

‐ splitting was enabled for each

simulation hour instead of the default option of once per day in order to allow for full

treatment of wind shear. The puff splitting feature of the CALPUFF modeling system does not

have a complementary puff “merging” feature which aggregates puffs according to specified

rules when they occupy the same space. Without the complementary puff merging capability,

the number of puffs generated by puff

‐ splitting can rapidly increase, resulting in extensive

computational requirements of the model and eventual simulation termination once the

maximum number of puffs allowed by the model is exceeded. Since the ETEX CALPUFF

application was of short duration, the number of puffs allowed was increased so no termination

occurred. However, the use of all hour puff splitting with CALPUFF in an annual simulation

could be problematic. The SCIPUFF Lagrangian puff model also performs puff splitting when a

sheared environment is encountered, however it can perform puff merging when two puffs

occupy the “same” space so does not suffer from the extensive computer time of CALPUFF

when aggressive puff splitting is desired.

The horizontal and vertical grid structures of CALPUFF were similar to the parent MM5 data.

Twenty

‐ seven (27) vertical levels were used in CALPUFF with each of the first 27 MM5 layers

matched explicitly to the CALPUFF vertical structure, through the lowest 4,900 m vertical depth

of the atmosphere. Additionally, 168 discrete receptors were included in the modeling analysis,

with the location of each corresponding to the location and elevation of the ETEX monitors.

AERMOD (EPA, 2004) turbulence coefficients, no complex terrain adjustment, and puff

‐ splitting

were selected for this analysis. A constant emission rate of 7.95 g/s was assigned for twelve

hours of release of the PMCH tracer. Plume rise and momentum were also simulated in

CALPUFF according to the release characteristics detailed on the ETEX website. CALPUFF

results were integrated for 90 hours, and model results were post

‐ processed in order to

generate 30 three (3) hour averages for each of the 168 discrete receptors.

For SCIPUFF simulations, the horizontal and vertical grid structures of the extracted MM5 data

were similar to the original MM5 data. Twenty

‐ eight (28) vertical levels were extracted,

encompassing a depth of approximately 5,000 m, similar to the CALPUFF simulations. Plume

rise and momentum were also simulated in SCIPUFF in the same manner as the CALPUFF

simulations. SCIPUFF results were also integrated for 90 hours, and model results were post

‐ processed in order to generate 30 three (3) hour averages for each of the same 168 discrete

receptors.

FLEXPART simulations used a 375 x 175 horizontal grid at a resolution 0.16° (~18 km)

latitude/longitude. All MM5 vertical layers were extracted for the transport simulation. The

FLEXPART concentration grid consisted of 15 vertical levels from the surface to 1,500 m with 9

layers below the first 500 m. Emissions were released at 10 meters. Concentrations were bi

‐ linearly interpolated to grid cells corresponding to the 168 ETEX monitoring locations that were

used.

HYSPLIT simulations used a 60 x 60 concentration grid with a horizontal resolution 0.25° (~28

km) latitude/longitude, consistent with NOAA’s model configuration for ETEX described on the

DATEM website. All MM5 vertical layers to 5000 meters were extracted for the transport

simulation. Emissions were released at 10 meters. The gridded concentration output was

linearly interpolated to the sampling locations utilizing software from NOAA’s Data Archive of

Tracer Experiments and Meteorology (DATEM) project. HYSPLIT was configured as a puff

‐107 particle hybrid (same used by the NOAA ARL for their ETEX evaluation) was used for the model

intercomparison (i.e., INITD = 104)

Note that the FLEXPART and HYSPLIT meteorological inputs were based on the 36 km MM5

meteorological model output, so they used the same transport conditions and resolution as the

other LRT models. The FLEXPART (~18 km) and HYSPLIT (~28 km) horizontal grid resolution is

used to convert the particles (mass) to concentrations (mass divided by volume).

CAMx was operated on a 148 x 112 horizontal grid with 36 km grid resolution with 25 vertical

layers up to a 50 mb pressure level (~15 km). CAMx is a photochemical grid model that includes

state

‐ of

‐ science gas, aerosol and aqueous phase chemistry modules and dry and wet deposition

algorithms. However, for the ETEX tracer modeling CAMx was operated with no chemistry and

no wet or dry removal mechanisms. The MM5CAMx processor was used to process the MM5

output to the variables and formats required by CAMx. CAMx has several options for vertical

mixing (from MM5CAMx), horizontal advection as well as a subgrid

‐ scale Plume

‐ in

‐ Grid (PiG)

module. Several alternative configurations of CAMx were investigated using sensitivity tests.

When comparing with the other LRT models, we used a CAMx configuration with the following

attributes, which are fairly typical for many CAMx simulations:

• CMAQ

‐ like vertical diffusion coefficients from MM5CAMx;

• Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM) horizontal advection solver; and

• No PiG module.

6.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE

Quality assurance (QA) of the LRT dispersion runs was conducted by evaluating the MM5

meteorological model output against surface meteorological observations and by examining of

the LRT model inputs and outputs, as available, to assure that the intended options and

configurations were used.

6.3.1 Quality Assurance of the Meteorological Inputs

A limited statistical evaluation of the MM5 simulation for the ETEX period was conducted as

part of this evaluation. The meteorological observations collected at the 168 sampling stations

during the ETEX exercise were not used as part of the MM5 data assimilation strategy;

therefore, these observations could reliably be used to provide an independent evaluation of

the MM5 simulation.

MM5 model performance evaluation results are presented in Figure 6

‐ 4. The MM5

performance statistics presented in Figure 6

‐ 4 are compared to performance criteria typically

recommended for meteorological model applications for regional air quality studies in the

United States (Emery et al. 2001) that were presented previously in Table 5

‐ 7. In general, MM5

verification scores indicate a persistent negative bias and higher error for both wind speed (

‐

1.67 m/s and 4.73 m/s, respectively) and temperature (

‐ 1.1 °K and 2.36 °K, respectively)

averaged across all 168 sites that are outside of target performance benchmark values for each

of these meteorological parameters. Wind direction bias and error were within the

performance benchmarks. Typically, these performance statistics would likely cause the

modeler to consider experimenting with additional physics configurations and/or altering the

data assimilation strategy to enhance meteorological model verification statistics. However,

the MM5 simulation was not optimized for this project for several reasons:

• First, from an operational perspective, the meteorological model errors are likely

consistent with the magnitude of model prediction errors that would have been108 experienced during the original ETEX exercise if forecast fields rather ECMWF analysis

fields had been employed. Additionally, the MM5 simulation has the added advantage of

data assimilation to constrain the growth of forecast error as a function of time.

• Second, since each of the five LRT model platforms evaluated in this project are presented

with the same meteorological database; a systemic degradation of performance due to

advection error would have been observed if the meteorology was a primary source of

model error. However, since poor model performance was only noted in one of the five

models, meteorological error was not considered the primary cause of poor performance.

• Finally, since wind direction is likely one of the key meteorological parameters for LRT

simulations, the operational decision to use the existing MM5 forecasts was made

because the MM5 wind direction forecasts were within acceptable statistical limits.

Figure 6

‐ 4a. ETEX MM5 model performance statistics of Bias (top) and RMSE (bottom) for

wind speed and comparison with benchmarks (purple lines). 

### ‐ 2 ‐ 1

0 1 223‐Oct24‐Oct25‐Oct26‐Oct27‐OctAvg WS Bias (m/s)



### 0 1 2 3 4 5 623‐Oct24‐Oct25‐Oct26‐Oct27‐OctAvg WS RMSE (m/s)109 Figure 6

‐ 4b. ETEX MM5 model performance statistics of Bias (top) and Error (bottom) for

wind direction and comparison with benchmarks (purple lines). 

### ‐ 10

‐ 5

0 5 1023‐Oct24‐Oct25‐Oct26‐Oct27‐OctAvg WD Bias (deg)



### 0 5 10 15 20 25 3023‐Oct24‐Oct25‐Oct26‐Oct27‐OctAvg WD Error (deg)110 Figure 6

‐ 4c. ETEX MM5 model performance statistics of Bias (top) and Error (bottom) for

temperature and comparison with benchmarks (purple lines).

6.3.2 Quality Assurance of the LRT Model Inputs

The input control files for the five LRT dispersion models were examined to assure that the

intended model options were used in each of the simulations.

6.4 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

The model performance of the five LRT dispersion models are evaluated using statistical

measures as used in the ATMES

‐ II study (Mosca et al., 1998) and recommended by DATEM

(Draxler, Heffter and Rolph, 2002). Graphical comparisons are generated of the predicted and

observed tracer spatial distributions.

6.4.1 Statistical Model Performance Evaluation

The spatial, temporal and global model performance of the five LRT models is evaluated using

the statistical model performance metrics described in Section 2.4. 

### ‐ 2 ‐ 1

0 1 223‐Oct24‐Oct25‐Oct26‐Oct27‐OctAvg Temp Bias (K)



### 0 1 2 323‐Oct24‐Oct25‐Oct26‐Oct27‐OctAvg Temp Error (K)111 6.4.1.1 Spatial Analysis of Model Performance

Four spatial analysis model performance statics have been identified and are discussed in this

section: FMS, FAR, POD and TS. Figure 6

‐ 5 displays the FMS spatial analysis performance

metrics for the five LRT models and the ETEX tracer study field experiment. Recall that the FMS

statistic is define as the overlap divided by the union of the predicted and observed tracer

clouds with a perfect model receiving an FMS score of 100%.

Figure 6

‐ 5. Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) statistical performance metric for the five LRT

models and the ETEX tracer field experiment.

Figure 6

‐ 6 displays the False Alarm Rate (FAR) performance metrics. The FAR metric is defined

by the number of times that a tracer concentration was predicted to occur at a monitor

‐ time

when no tracer was observed (i.e., a miss) divided by the number of times a tracer was

predicted to occur at a monitor

‐ time (i.e., sum of misses and hits); a perfect model (i.e., one

that had no misses) would have a FAR score of 0%. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%



## CALPUFF SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPART CAMx 

## Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)112 Figure 6

‐ 6. False Alarm Rate (FAR) statistical performance metric for the five LRT models and

the ETEX tracer field experiment.

The Probability of Detection (POD) performance statistic is defined as the percent of the time

the predicted and observed tracer both occurred at a monitor

‐ time (i.e., a hit of tracer

concentrations greater than 1 ngm ‐ 3 ) divided by the number of times that the tracer was

observed at any monitor

‐ time (i.e., sum of hits and misses); a perfect model POD score would

be 100% (i.e., anytime there was observed tracer at a monitor there was also predicted tracer

at the monitor).

Figure 6

‐ 7. Probability of Detection (POD) statistical performance metric for the five LRT

models and the ETEX tracer field experiment.

The Threat Score (TS) is the ratio of the number of times that a tracer is both predicted and

observed at a monitor

‐ time at the same time (i.e., common hits among the predictions and 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%



### CALPUFF SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPART CAMx 

## False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%



### CALPUFF SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPART CAMx 

## Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)113 observations) divided by the number of monitor

‐ time events that either a prediction or

observed tracer occurred at a monitor (i.e., either a predicted or observed hits), with a perfect

score of 100% (which means there were no occurrences when there was a predicted hit but an

observed miss and vice versa).

Figure 6

‐ 8. Threat Score (TS) statistical performance metric for the five LRT models and the

ETEX tracer field experiment.

6.4.1.2 Global Analysis of Model Performance

Eight global statistical analysis metrics are used to evaluate the five LRT model performance

using the ETEX data base that are described in Section 2.4 and consist of the FOEX, FA2, FA5,

NMSE, PCC, FB, KS and RANK statistical metrics.

The Factor of Exceedance (FOEX) gives a measure of the scatter of the modeled predicted and

observed and a level of underestimation versus overestimation of the model. FOEX is bounded

by

‐ 50% to +50%. The within a Factor of α (FA α ), where we used within a Factor of 2 (FA2) and

5 (FA5), also gives an indication of the amount of scatter in the predicted and observed tracer

pairs, but no information on whether the model is over ‐ or under

‐ predicting. A perfect model

would have an FA α score of 100%. A good performing model would have a FOEX score near

zero and high FA α values. A model with a large negative FOEX and low FA α values would

indicate an under

‐ prediction tendency. Whereas a model with a large positive FOEX and low

FA α would suggest a model that over

‐ predicts.

Figure 6

‐ 9 displays the FOEX performance metrics for the five LRT models and the ETEX

modeling period. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%



### CALPUFF SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPART CAMx 

## Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)114 Figure 6

‐ 9. Factor of Exceedance (FOEX) statistical performance metric for the five LRT

models and the ETEX tracer field experiment.

The rankings of the five LRT models are the same whether using the FA2 or FA5 performance

metric.

Figure 6

‐ 10. Factor of 2 (FA2, top) and Factor of 5 (FA5, bottom) statistical performance

metric for the five LRT models and the ETEX tracer field experiment.

The scores for the Normalized Mean Squared Error (NMSE) statistical metrics for the five LRT

models are given in Figure 6

‐ 11. The NMSE provides an indication of the deviations between

the predicted and observed tracer concentrations paired by time and location with a perfect

model receiving a 0.0 score. ‐ 40% ‐ 30% ‐ 20% ‐ 10%

0% 10% 20%



### CALPUFF SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPART CAMx 

## Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%CALPUFFSCIPUFFHYSPLITFLEXPARTCAMx 

# Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

FA2

FA5115 Figure 6

‐ 11. Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE) statistical performance metric for the

five LRT models and the ETEX tracer field experiment (pgm ‐ 3 ).

The Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (PCC or R) ranges between

‐ 1.0 and +1.0, a model that has

a perfect correlation with the observations would have a PCC value of 1.0. The PCC values for

the five LRT models are shown in Figure 6

‐ 12. All of the models have positive PCCs so none are

negatively correlated with the observe data.

Figure 6

‐ 12. Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (PCC) statistical performance metric for the five

LRT models and the ETEX tracer field experiment.

The Fractional Bias (FB) is a measure of bias in the deviations between the predicted and

observed paired tracer concentrations and ranges from

‐ 2.0 to +2.0 with a perfect model 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400



### CALPUFF SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPART CAMx 

## Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7



### CALPUFF SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPART CAMx 

## Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)

(Perfect = 1)116 receiving a 0.0 score. Figure 6

‐ 13 displays the FB parameter for the five LRT models. All five

models exhibit a positive FB, which suggests an overestimation tendency.

Figure 6

‐ 13. Fractional Bias(FB) statistical performance metric for the five LRT models and the

ETEX tracer field experiment.

The Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnoff (KS) parameter compares the frequency distributions of the

predicted and observed tracer concentrations unmatched by time and location. It is the only

unpaired statistical metric in the global statistics. The KS parameter ranges from 0% to 100%

with a perfect model receiving a score of 0%. The KS parameters for the five LRT models and

the ETEX modeling are shown in Figure 6

‐ 14.

Figure 6

‐ 14. Kolmogorov

– Smirnov Parameter (KSP) statistical performance metrics for the

five LRT models and the ETEX tracer field experiment. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8



### CALPUFF SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPART CAMx 

## Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80



### CALPUFF SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPART CAMx 

## Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter (KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)117 The RANK statistical performance metric was proposed by Draxler (2001) as a single model

performance metric that equally ranks the combination of performance metrics for correlation

(PCC or R), bias (FB), spatial analysis (FMS) and unpaired distribution comparisons (KS). The

RANK metrics ranges from 0.0 to 4.0 with a perfect model receiving a score of 4.0. Figure 6

‐ 15

lists the RANK model performance statistics for the five LRT models. CAMx is the highest

ranked model using the RANK metric with a value of 1.9. Note that CAMx scores high in all four

areas of model performance (correlation, bias, spatial and cumulative distribution). The next

highest ranking models according to the RANK metric are SCIPUFF and HYSPLIT with a score of

1.8.

Figure 6

‐ 15. RANK statistical performance metric for the five LRT models and the ETEX tracer

field experiment.

6.4.1.3 Summary of Model Ranking using Statistical Performance Measures

Table 6

‐ 1 summarizes the rankings between the five LRT models for the 11 performance

statistics analyzed. Depending on the statistical metric, three different models were ranked

first for a particular statistic with CAMx being ranked first most of the time (64%) and HYSPLIT

ranked first second most (27%). In order to come up with an overall rank across all eleven

statistics we average the modeled ranking order in order to come up with an average ranking

that listed CAMx first, HYSPLIT second, SCIPUFF third, FLEXPART fourth and CALPUFF the fifth.

This is the same ranking as produced by the RANK integrated statistics that combines the four

statistics for correlation (PCC), bias (FB), spatial (FMS) and cumulative distribution (KS) giving

credence that the RANK statistic is a potentially useful performance statistic for indicating over

all model performance of a LRT dispersion model. 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4CALPUFFSCIPUFFHYSPLITFLEXPARTCAMx 

### Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^2118 Table 6

‐ 1. Summary of model ranking using the statistical performance metrics.

Statistic 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th

FMS CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FAR HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF

POD CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

TS CAMx HYSPLIT SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FOEX CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FA2 CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FA5 CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

NMSE HYSPLIT CAMx CALPUFF FLEXPAR T SCIPUFF

PCC or R SCIPUFF HYSPLIT CAMx FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

FB HYSPLIT CAMx CALPUFF FLEXPAR T SCIPUFF

KS CAMx SCIPUFF HYSPLIT FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

Avg. Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

Avg. Score 1.55 2.27 2.73 3.82 4.64

RANK Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT SCIPUFF FLEXPAR T CALPUFF

6.4.2 Spatial Displays of Model Performance

Figure 6

‐ 16 displays the observed tracer distribution 24, 36, 48 and 60 hours after the beginning

of the tracer release as well as the predicted tracer distribution by CALPUFF, SCIPUFF, FLEXPART

and CAMx. Note that the observed tracer spatial distribution plots in Figure 6

‐ 16 are color

coded at the monitoring sites. Previously the spatial distribution of the observed tracer

distribution was also presented using spatial interpolation from the monitoring sites in Figure 6

‐

3b. However, such an interpolation is in itself a model and may not be correct, so in Figure 6

‐ 16

the observed tracer concentrations at the monitoring sites is presented for comparison with

the five LRT models.

24 hours after the tracer release, the observed tracer was advected to the east

‐ northeast and

was present across northern France and Germany (Figure 6

‐ 16a, top left). CALPUFF advected

the tracer with a more northeasterly direction than observed and underestimated the plume

spread thereby missing the observed tracer concentrations in southern Germany (Figure 6

‐ 16a,

top right). SCIPUFF (Figure 6

‐ 16a, middle left) also appeared to advect the tracer with more of

a northeast direction than observed, but had more plume spread so was better able to capture

the occurrence of observed tracer concentrations in southern Germany. FLEXPART (Figure 6

‐

16a, middle right) and HYSPLIT (Figure 6

‐ 16a, bottom left) both correctly advect the tracer

initially in the east

‐ northeast direction, but FLEXPART greatly underestimates the observed

plume spread on the ground with HYSPLIT also underestimating the plume spread but not as

much as FLEXPART. CAMx also appears to initially transport the tracer with more of a

northeasterly than east

‐ northeast direction as seen with SCIPUFF. Like SCIPUFF, the CAMx

tracer plume has a southerly bulge that begins to capture the occurrence of the observed tracer

concentrations in southern Germany that the other three LRT dispersion models miss

completely. All of the models fail to reproduce the leading edge of the observed tracer cloud in

northeastern Germany, with SCIPUFF and CAMx best able to simulate the observed front of the

tracer cloud. The LRT dispersion models underestimation of the location of the leading edge of

the observed tracer cloud is likely related to the MM5 model wind speed underestimation bias

(see Figure 6

‐ 4a). SCIPUFF tends to have an overestimation bias of both concentrations and

spatial extend of the observed tracer 24 hours after its release.

The predicted and observed tracer distribution 36 hours after its release is shown in Figure 6

‐

16b. The observed tracer plume moved eastward and traverses Germany 36 hours after the119 start of the release and is stretched from the west coast of Sweden in the north to Hungary in

the South. CALPUFF is displacing the tracer too far to the northeast with the centerline over

the North Sea stretching from the northern tip of France to southern tip of Sweden and missing

most of the observed tracer concentrations in France, Germany and Czechoslovakia. SCIPUFF

covers the spatial extent of the observed tracer cloud, and then some, correctly estimating the

coverage across Germany and Czechoslovakia. FLEXPART reproduces the easterly transport of

the observed tracer clouds 36 hours after the start of the release, but greatly underestimates

the ground level plume spread. HYSPLIT also reproduces the easterly transport of the observed

tracer plume but also understates the plume spread missing the observed tracer concentrations

in southern Germany and Czechoslovakia. CAMx has a similar distribution as SCIPUFF with less

of an overestimation bias locating the tracer center of mass slightly too far north. After 36

hours from the start of the tracer release the leading edge of the observed tracer is just

entering Poland from Germany, which is reproduced well by SCIPUFF, HYSPLIT and CAMx with

FLEXPART having a lag and CALPUFF locating the leading edge of the tracer too far north.

By 48 hours after the beginning of the tracer release, the observed tracer cloud is exhibiting a

northwest to southeast orientation stretching from Denmark in the northwest to Hungary in

the southeast (Figure 6

‐ 16c). The CALPUFF tracer plume, however, is advected too far north

into the North Sea and southern Finland with a circular Gaussian puff distribution. SCIPUFF

correctly reproduces the northwest to southeast orientation of the observed tracer cloud and

almost completely covers the observed tracer cloud but appears to overestimate the spatial

extent and concentrations of the observed tracer. HYSPLIT and FLEXPART also are exhibiting a

northwest to southeast orientation of the observed tracer cloud but both models, and

especially FLEXPART, understate the spatial spread of the observed ground level tracer

concentrations. CAMx reproduces the northwest to southeast orientation of the observed

tracer distribution and appears to better match the observed tracer plume spread than

SCIPUFF (overstated) and FLEXPART and HYSPLIT (understated).

After 60 hours after the beginning of the tracer release, the observed tracer cloud still has the

northwest to southeast orientation that stretches from southern Finland in the northwest to

the most western point of Romania. The CALPUFF model has advected its circular puffs to the

north with the center over the North Sea just west of southern Finland almost completely

missing the spatial extent of the observed tracer. The other four LRT dispersion models are

correctly estimating the northwest to southeast orientation of the observed tracer pattern 60

hours after the beginning of the tracer release. However, the remaining four LRT models (less

CALPUFF) estimate different amounts of plume spread with FLEXPART estimating a very narrow

predicted tracer cloud that understates the observed spread of the tracer footprint. SCIPUFF

estimated the largest spatial extent of the tracer cloud that is much larger than observed.

HYSPLIT and CAMx estimated tracer spread that is closer to what was observed.

The comparison of the spatial distribution of the predicted and observed tracer concentrations

from the ETEX1 experiment helps explain the statistical model performance presented earlier.

The poor performance of the CALPUFF model is because it keeps the tracer in a circular

Gaussian plume distribution that is advected too far north and fails to reproduce the elongation

and stretching of the observed tracer cloud in the northwest to southeast orientation. The

other four LRT dispersion models do allow the predicted tracer cloud to take on the northwest

to southeast distribution matching the basic features of the observed tracer footprint well, but

with different amounts of plume spread. FLEXPART greatly understates the amount of tracer120 plume spread and observed surface concentrations, whereas SCIPUFF overstates the amount of

plume spread as well as the surface concentrations.

Figure 6

‐ 16a. Comparison of spatial distribution of the ETEX tracer concentrations 24 hours

after release for the observed (top left), CALPUFF (top right), SCIPUFF (middle left), FLEXPART

(middle right), HYSPLIT (bottom left) and CAMx (bottom right).121 Figure 6

‐ 16b. Comparison of spatial distribution of the ETEX tracer concentrations 36 hours

after release for the observed (top left), CALPUFF (top right), SCIPUFF (middle left), FLEXPART

(middle right), HYSPLIT (bottom left) and CAMx (bottom right).122 Figure 6

‐ 16c. Comparison of spatial distribution of the ETEX tracer concentrations 48 hours

after release for the observed (top left), CALPUFF (top right), SCIPUFF (middle left), FLEXPART

(middle right), HYSPLIT (bottom left) and CAMx (bottom right).123 Figure 6

‐ 16d. Comparison of spatial distribution of the ETEX tracer concentrations 60 hours

after release for the observed (top left), CALPUFF (top right), SCIPUFF (middle left), FLEXPART

(middle right), HYSPLIT (bottom left) and CAMx (bottom right).

6.4.3 CAMx Sensitivity Tests

Sixteen CAMx sensitivity tests were conducted to investigate the effects of vertical diffusion,

horizontal advection solvers and use of the sub

‐ grid scale Plume

‐ in

‐ Grid (PiG) module on the

model performance for the ETEX tracer experiment.

Plume

‐ in

‐ Grid (PiG) Module : The PiG module treats the near

‐ source plume dispersion (and

chemistry if applicable) of a point source plume using a subgrid

‐ scale Lagrangian puff module.

The mass from the PiG puff module is transferred to the grid model when the plume size is

commensurate with the grid cell size used in the CAMx simulation. Two types of PiG sensitivity

tests were conducted in this study to investigate the effects of the PiG module on model

performance:124 • NoPiG : The tracer emissions were released directly into the CAMx 36 km grid cell

containing the tracer release location calculating plume rise using the local meteorological

conditions to inject the emissions into the appropriate vertical layer.

• PiG : Calculate plume rise using local meteorological conditions and simulate the early

evolution of plume dispersion using the PiG module.

Vertical Diffusion Coefficients (Kz) : The Kz coefficients define the rate of vertical mixing in a

column of grid cells in CAMx. MM5 meteorological model does not directly output Kz, thus the

MM5CAMx pre

‐ processor has several different algorithms for diagnosing the Kz coefficients.

Four different Kz algorithms were evaluated in the CAMx sensitivity tests in this study:

• OB70 : O’Brien 1970 algorithm for calculation Kz values by diagnosing them from the MM5

output.

• TKE : The Eta planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme used in the ETEX MM5

meteorological modeling has a Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) formulation. When using a

TKE PBL scheme, MM5CAMx can calculate the Kz coefficients directly from the TKE values,

rather than diagnosing them from the other meteorological variables in the MM5 output.

• ACM2 : The Asymmetric Convective Mixing (ACM2) algorithm has two components: a

standard Kz scheme that calculates diffusion between two adjacent grid cells in a column;

and a non

‐ local diffusion scheme that can calculate diffusion between grid cells in a

column that are not adjacent. In CAMx, the ACM2 scheme will deduce when convective

activity is present in a column of grid cells and add the non

‐ local diffusion to the standard

local diffusion based on the Kz coefficients.

• CMAQ : Use the algorithm for calculating Kz from the CMAQ modeling system (Byun and

Ching, 1999).

Horizontal Advection Solver : Horizontal advection (transport) is solved in CAMx using finite

difference algorithms that were explicitly developed for simulating transport and limit

numerical diffusion that can artificially reduce concentration peaks. Two horizontal transport

algorithms are implemented in CAMx and their effect on model performance for the ETEX

experiment was evaluated:

Bott : The Bott (1989) scheme is a positive definite transport scheme that limits numerical

diffusion.

PPM : The Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM; Colella and Woodward, 1984) is a higher

order positive definite transport scheme that is also designed to limit numerical diffusion.

The configuration of CAMx presented in the previous sections comparing model performance

against the other four LRT models was a standard configuration used in many regional model

applications:

• Don’t use PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff module (NoPiG)

• Use of CMAQ

‐ like Kz vertical diffusion coefficients (CMAQ)

• Use of PPM horizontal advection solver (PPM)

6.4.3.1 NoPiG CAMx Sensitivity Tests

Figure 6

‐ 17 displays the CAMx spatial model performance statistics for the sensitivity tests that

were run without using the PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff module. For the FMS statistic, the CMAQ Kz

and PPM horizontal transport sensitivity test (CMAQ/PPM) is performing the best with a FMS

value of 51.8% followed by CMAQ/Bott (50.9%) and ACM2/PPM (50.8%). Vertical diffusion has125 the biggest effect with the ranking of the algorithms from best to worst using the FMS statistic

being CMAQ, ACM2, TKE and OB70. Whereas, for the horizontal advection solver the PPM

algorithm performs slightly better than Bott using the FMS statistic.

For the FAR statistic, CMAQ/Bott has the best score (39.0%) followed by CMAQ/PPM (41.0%).

Overall CMAQ is the best performing vertical diffusion formulation and Bott performs better

than PPM for horizontal advection using the FAR statistic.

For the POD and TS spatial statistics, the CMAQ and TKE vertical diffusion algorithms perform

substantially better than the OB70 and ACM2 approaches. There are much smaller differences

in the model performance using the two advection solvers for the POD and TS statistics.

In summary, based on the spatial statistics, the CMAQ Kz algorithm appears to be the best

performing approach for vertical mixing followed by TKE. And with the exception of the FAR

statistic, PPM produces slightly better spatial model performance statistics than the Bott

horizontal advection solver. The differences in vertical diffusion algorithms has a greater effect

on CAMx model performance than the differences in horizontal advection solvers.

Figure 6

‐ 17. Spatial model performance statistics for the CAMx sensitivity tests without using

the PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff module (NoPiG).

Figure 6

‐ 18 displays the global statistics for the CAMx NoPiG sensitivity tests with Figures 6

‐ 18a

and 6

‐ 18b containing the statistical metrics where the best performing model has the,

respectively, lowest and highest score. For the FOEX metric, the vertical diffusion algorithm has

the biggest effect with the ACM2 scoring the best with an essentially zero FOEX score followed

by OB70 with values

‐ 2.4% (OB70/Bott) and

‐ 3.4% (OB70/PPM). The TKE (8.5%) and PPM (8.7%

and 9.1%) have the highest (worst) FOEX scores. The FOEX metrics using the two alternative

horizontal advection algorithms are essentially the same.

40% 43% 46% 49% 52% 55%OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

35% 38% 41% 44% 47% 50%OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

25% 30% 35% 40% 45%OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)126 Using the NMSE statistical performance metric, the CMAQ vertical diffusion scheme performs

best with OB70 and TKE producing very similar results next, with the ACM2 exhibiting the worst

NMSE performance results (Figure 6

‐ 18a, top right). The PPM horizontal advection scheme is

performing slightly better than the Bott algorithm based on the NMSE metric.

The CMAQ vertical diffusion scheme is also the best performing method according to the FB

metrics followed by the TKE then ACM2 and then OB70 in last. According to the FB metrics,

PPM performs slightly better than Bott.

For the KS parameter, the OB70 is the best vertical mixing method with CMAQ barely beating

out ACM2 in second and TKE slightly worse. The PPM horizontal advection solver is performing

slightly better than Bott for the KS parameter.

For the within a factor of 2 and 5 metrics (FA2 and FA5, Figure 6

‐ 18b, top), the CMAQ and TKE

vertical mixing approaches are clearly performing better than the OB70 and ACM2 methods

and the PPM horizontal advection solver is clearly performing better than Bott. For the FA2,

the TKE/PPM is the best performing configuration (11.4%) followed by CMAQ/PPM (10.9%),

Whereas for the FA5 the reverse is true with CMAQ/PPM being the best performing

configuration (23.4%) followed by TKE/PPM (22.2%).

There is essentially no difference in the PCC statistic using the two horizontal advection solvers

(Figure 6

‐ 18b, bottom right). According to the PCC metric, CMAQ is the best performing

vertical diffusion approach (0.52) followed by TKE (0.37 and 0.38), OB70 (0.35) and ACM2 (0.26

and 0.27).

The final panel in Figure 6

‐ 18b (bottom right) displays the overall RANK statistic. The RANK

statistics orders the model performance of the CAMx configurations without PiG as follows:

1. CMAQ/PPM (1.94)

2. CMAQ/Bott (1.90)

3. TKE/PPM (1.70)

4. OB70/PPM (1.66)

5. TKE/Bott (1.65)

6. ACM2/PPM (1.60) (tied)

7. OB70/Bott (1.60) (tied)

8. ACM2/Bott (1.54)

Based on this analysis the CMAQ Kz coefficients is the best performing vertical diffusion

approach followed by TKE and the PPM horizontal advection algorithm is performing slightly

better than Bott. The vertical diffusion algorithm has a greater effect on CAMx model

performance compared to the choice of horizontal advection solvers.127 Figure 6

‐ 18a. Global model performance statistics for the CAMx sensitivity tests without

using the PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff module.

Figure 6

‐ 18b. Global model performance statistics for the CAMx sensitivity tests without

using the PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff module.

‐ 4.0% ‐ 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

0 200 400 600 800 1000OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

0.8 0.9

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

20 25 30 35 40OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter (KSP)

(Perfect = 0)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Factor of 2 and 5 (Perfect = 100%)

Factor of 2 (FA2)

(Perfect

= 100%)

Factor of 5 (FA5)

(Perfect

= 100%)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0OB70/BOTTOB70/PPMTKE/BOTTTKE/PPMACM2/BOTTACM2/PPMCMAQ/BOTTCMAQ/PPM Rank (RANK) (Perfect = 4)

(1

‐ KS/100)

FMS/100

(1

‐ FB/2)

R^2128 6.4.3.2 Effect of PiG on Model Performance

Whether better model performance is obtained using the PiG module or not frequently

depends on the statistical metric being analyzed and the CAMx model configuration (vertical

diffusion algorithm and horizontal advection solver). However, whether the PiG is used or not

has very little difference on the rankings of the CAMx model performance using the alternative

vertical mixing and horizontal advection approaches. In general, it appears that the CAMx

model performance without the PiG is performing slightly better than its performance using the

PiG.

The spatial performance statistics are sometimes improved and sometimes degraded when the

PiG module is invoked. For the global statistics, the PCC performance statistic is degraded by

‐

11% to

‐ 37% (

‐ 0.03 to

‐ 0.13 points) when the PiG module is invoked. Similarly, use of the PiG

versus NoPiG module increases (degrades) the FB metric by 5 to 18 percent and also increases

(degrades) the NMSE metrics for all model configurations.

Table 6

‐ 2 summarized the RANK model performance statistic for the different CAMx model

configurations with and without the PiG module. For each model vertical diffusion/horizontal

advection configuration, using the PiG module always results in slightly lower RANK statistics

that are from

‐ 3.9% to

‐ 8.5% lower than when the PiG module is not used. The ranking of the

top four CAMx vertical diffusion/horizontal advection configurations remains unchanged

whether the PiG module is used or not. And by far the most important parameter examined in

regards to the RANK model performance statistics for the ETEX experiment in the CAMx

sensitivity tests is the vertical mixing algorithm, with the CMAQ Kz parameterization producing

the best four RANK model performance statistics out of the 16 sensitivity tests: (1)

NoPiG/CMAQ/PPM; (2) NoPiG/CMAQ/Bott; (3) PiG/CMAQ/PPM; and (4) PiG/CMAQ/Bott.

Table 6

‐ 2. CAMx RANK model performance statistic and model rankings for different model

configurations with and without using the PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff model.

Model

Configuration Without PiG Module With PiG Module PiG

‐ NoPiG

RANK Model

Ranking RANK Model

Ranking Δ RANK Percent

OB70/BOTT 1.60 7 a 1.53 6 a

‐ 0.07

‐ 4.4%

OB70/PPM 1.66 4 1.55 4

‐ 0.11

‐ 6.6%

TKE/BOT T 1.65 5 1.51 7

‐ 0.14

‐ 8.5%

TKE/PPM 1.70 3 1.56 3

‐ 0.14

‐ 8.2%

ACM2/BOT T 1.54 8 1.48 8

‐ 0.06

‐ 3.9%

ACM2/PPM 1.60 6 a 1.53 5 a

‐ 0.07

‐ 4.4%

CMAQ/BOTT 1.90 2 1.76 2

‐ 0.14

‐ 7.4%

CMAQ/PPM 1.94 1 1.80 1

‐ 0.14

‐ 7.2%

a tied129 6.4.4 CALPUFF Sensitivity Tests

Most CALPUFF applications have limited the distance downwind that the model is applied for to

less than 300 km from the source. However, the evaluation of CALPUFF in the ETEX study has

applied the model to much farther downwind distances. The issue of the downwind

applicability of the CALPUFF model was raised in the FLAG (2000) report and EPA’s June 26

‐ 27,

2000 7 th Conference on Air Quality Modeling 19 that proposed to list CALPUFF as an EPA

recommended model for far

‐ field applications. However, when CALPUFF was designated an

EPA recommended far

‐ field model in a 2003 Federal Register (FR) notice, EPA noted that

“ ...since the 7th Modeling Conference, enhancements were made to CALPUFF that allow puffs to

be split both horizontally (to address wind direction shear) and vertically (to address spatial

variation in meteorological conditions). These enhancements likely will extend the system’s

ability to treat transport and dispersion beyond 300 km ” (68 FR 18441). EPA goes on to further

state that “ ...Future performance comparisons for transport beyond 300 km are likely to extend

the applicability and use of the modeling system, and we intend to watch for such evaluations

very diligently. In an effort to keep the public abreast with the latest findings, EPA requests that

evaluation results of the CALPUFF modeling system be sent to us (SCRAM webmaster) in an

electronic format suitable for distribution, or that citations be provided for copyrighted material.

EPA will post this information on its website for review and assessment ” (EPA, 2003).

Despite the passage of eight years since EPA’s request for CALPUFF evaluation regarding its

suitability for application beyond 300 km, no such documentation has been submitted. Thus,

the ETEX CALPUFF evaluation serves as an important source of information on the downwind

applicability of CALPUFF. In this section we present two types of performance analysis:

• Analyze the CALPUFF model performance as a function of distance from the source to

determine whether the poor performance of CALPUFF relative to the other LRT models is

related to applying the model beyond its downwind distance of applicability; and

• Perform CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity tests to determine whether puff splitting can

increase the downwind distance applicability of CALPUFF, as suggested in the 2003 Federal

Register notice.

6.4.4.1 Time Dependent Model Performance

Figure 6

‐ 19 displays the FMS model performance statistic for the five LRT models as a function

of time from the beginning of the tracer release in the ETEX experiment. Although the CALPUFF

model performance does degrade with time (distance), even close to the source it is performing

worse than the other LRT models. This was also seen in the spatial maps of the model

performance presented previous in Figure 6

‐ 16 where the CALPUFF model had spatial

alignment problems compared with the observed tracer 24 hours after the tracer was released.

Thus, CALPUFF does not perform comparably to the other evaluated LRT models even within

300 km of the source.

19 http://www.epa.gov/ttn/s cram/7thmodconf.htm130 Figure 6

‐ 19. Figure of Merit (FMS) spatial model performance statistics as a function of time

since the beginning of the tracer release.

6.4.4.2 CALPUFF Puff Splitting Sensitivity Tests

The CALPUFF puff splitting algorithm is controlled by several model options that are defined in

the CALPUFF control input file. Two types of puff splitting may be invoked in CALPUFF: (1)

vertical puff splitting when vertical wind shear is present across vertical layers in a well

‐ mixed

puff; and (2) horizontal puff splitting when there is sufficient horizontal wind shear across the

horizontal extent of the puff.

The MSPLIT control option turns on puff splitting when set to 1, when MSPLIT is 0 no vertical or

horizontal puff splitting is allowed to occur.

Four criteria must occur in order for vertical puff splitting to occur in CALPUFF:

1. The puff must be in contact with the ground.

2. The puff splitting flag must be turned on (i.e., IRESPLIT = 1).

3. The previous hours mixing height must be above a certain height (mixing height >

ZISPLIT).

4. The ratio of the last hours mixing height to the maximum mixing height encountered by

the puff is less than a maximum value (current mixing height/maximum mixing height >

ROLDMAX). 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 CAMx

CALPUFF

FLEXPART

HYSPLIT

SCIPUFF131 The puff splitting flag (item 2) is turned on using the IRESPLIT input option. IRESPLIT consists of

24 values corresponding to the hour of the day with values that are either 0 or 1, where 1 turns

on the puff splitting flag for puffs. Once the puff splitting flag is turned on, it remains on until

the puff splitting occurs at which point the puff splitting flagged is turned off until it is turned

back on again by IRESPLIT. The default setting for IRESPLIT is to have all hours zero except for

setting hour 17 to 1. The reasoning behind this is to invoke puff splitting in the evening when a

nocturnal inversion occurs and there is a decoupling of the winds between the nocturnal

inversion layer and above the nocturnal inversion (i.e., the residual “mixed layer”). Setting

IRESPLIT to all zeros will result in the puffs never performing vertical puff splitting and setting

IRESPLIT to all ones will result in the puff splitting flag always turned on and puffs will always

split when the other three criteria for vertical puff splitting are met.

The default value for the previous hours minimum mixing height value (item 3) is ZISPLIT = 100

m. This minimum value is used to assure that the current mixing height is not negligible.

The ratio of the previous hours mixing height to maximum mixing height encountered by the

puff (item 4) is controlled by the ROLDMAX parameter with a default value of 0.25.

When vertical puff splitting occurs in CALPUFF, the number of puffs that the puff is split into is

controlled by the NSPLIT parameter that has a default value of 3.

Horizontal puff splitting occurs when the puff concentrations are above a minimum value

(CNSPLITH), the puff has a minimum width that is defined by its sigma

‐ y in grid cell units

(SYSPLITH) and the minim puff elongation rate (SYSPLITH per hour) is above a SHSPLITH factor.

The default minimum concentration is CNSPLITH = 10 ‐ 7 g/m 3 (0.1 μg/m 3 ). Default SYSPLITH

value is 1.0 and default SHSPLITH factor is 2.0. When horizontal puff splitting occurs in

CALPUFF the number of puffs the puff is split into is controlled by the NSPLITH parameter that

has a default of 5.

Eight CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity tests were conducted, which are defined in Table 6

‐ 3.

When vertical and horizontal puff splitting occurs in CALPUFF, the default number of puffs to

split into was used in the CALPUFF sensitivity tests (i.e., NSPLIT = 3 and NSPLITH = 5). The

NOSPLIT sensitivity test set MSPLIT = 0 so no vertical or horizontal puff splitting was allowed to

occur. The DEFAULT puff splitting turned on puff splitting (MSPLIT

= 1) but only turned on the

vertical puff splitting flag at hour 17 every day. Whereas, the ALLHRS sensitivity test made sure

that the vertical puff splitting flag was turned on all the time (i.e., IRESPLIT = 24*1) removing

criteria 2 from the vertical puff splitting requirement. The ZISPLIT sensitivity test set ZISPLIT to

zero thereby removing criteria 3 in the vertical puff splitting, as well as requirement 2 (like

ALLHRS). ROLD relaxed the minimum ratio of the previous hours to maximum mixing height for

vertical puff splitting from 0.25 to 0.50. The SYS sensitivity test allows horizontal puff splitting

to occur more frequently by allowing puff splitting to occur with a puff sigma

‐ y value is greater

than SYSPLITH values of 0.1 (2.6 km) versus the default 1.0 (36 km) value. The last sensitivity

test combines the ROLD and SYS sensitivity tests.132 Table 6

‐ 3. Summary of CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity tests performed using the ETEX

database.

Sensitivity

Test MSPLIT NSPLIT IRESPLT ZISPLIT ROLDMAX NSPLITH SYSPLITH CNSPLITH

NOSPLI T 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

DEFAUL T 1 3 Hr 17=1 100 0.25 5 1.0 10 ‐ 7

ALLHRS 1 3 24*1 100 0.25 5 1.0 10 ‐ 7

CNSMIN 1 3 24*1 100 0.25 5 1.0 10 ‐ 20

ZISPLIT 1 3 24*1 0 0.25 5 1.0 10 ‐ 20

ROLD 1 3 24*1 0 0.50 5 1.0 10 ‐ 20

SYS 1 3 24*1 0 0.25 5 0.1 10 ‐ 20

SYSROLD 1 3 24*1 0 0.50 5 0.1 10 ‐ 20

Figure 6

‐ 20 displays the spatial model performance statistics for the CALPUFF puff splitting

sensitivity tests. The DEFAULT, ALLHRS and CNSMIN CALPUFF sensitivity tests obtained the

exactly same model performance statistics indicating that CALPUFF model performance was not

affected by the IRESPLT and CNSMIN puff splitting parameters. There are some small

difference in the spatial model performance statistics for the other CALPUFF puff splitting

sensitivity tests with the ROLD parameter having the biggest effect when changed from 0.25 to

0.50 that improved model performance a couple of percentage points for the FMS, POD and TS

spatial statistics but degraded the FAR spatial statistic by several percentage points.

Figure 6

‐ 20. Spatial model performance statistics for the CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity

tests.

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Figure of Metric in Space (FMS)

(Perfect = 100%)

56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64%NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD False Alarm Rate (FAR)

(Perfect = 0%)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Probability of Detection (POD)

(Perfect = 100%)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Threat Score (TS)

(Perfect = 100%)133 The global model statistics for the CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity tests are shown in Figure 6

‐

20, with Figures 6

‐ 21a and 6

‐ 21b displays statistics where the best performing model

configuration has the lowest and highest score, respectively. The puff splitting sensitivity tests

have a very small effect on the CALPUFF model performance. Again, the biggest effect on

CALPUFF performance of all the puff splitting parameters comes from changing ROLD from 0.25

to 0.50, which appears to slightly degrade most CALPUFF model performance metrics with the

exception of bias and error that are improved. Again, in terms of the CALPUFF global model

performance versus other four LRT dispersion models (Figures 6

‐ 9 through 6

‐ 15), the CALPUFF

puff splitting sensitivity tests are exhibiting by far the worst model performance. For example,

the RANK model performance statistic varies from 0.6 to 0.7 across the CALPUFF puff splitting

sensitivity tests as compared to much higher values for CAMx (1.9), SCIPUFF (1.8), HYPLIT (1.8)

and FLEXPART (1.0).

Figure 6

‐ 21a. Global model performance statistics for the CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity

tests.

‐ 40% ‐ 36% ‐ 32% ‐ 28%NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Factor of Exceedance (FOEX)

(Perfect = 0%)

270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE)

(Perfect = 0)

1.4 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.5NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Fractional Bias (FB)

(Perfect = 0)

70 72 74 76 78 80 82NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Kolmogorov

‐ Smirnov Parameter (KSP)

(Perfect = 0%)134 Figure 6

‐ 21b. Global model performance statistics for the CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity

tests.

In conclusion, the CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity tests did not have any significant effect on

CALPUFF model performance. Whether puff splitting was used or not produced essentially

identical model performance for the ETEX experiment and certainly did not improve the

CALPUFF model performance.

6.4.5 HYSPLIT Sensitivity Tests

HYSPLIT is unique among the models analyzed in this project in that its configuration is highly

flexible, allowing for treatment of atmospheric dispersion purely as a Lagrangian particle model

(default configuration), puff

‐ particle hybrid model, or purely as a puff model. Nine sensitivity

analyses were conducted against the ETEX database to provide information about the various

configurations of HYSPLIT, but more importantly to provide additional information regarding

the two distinct classes (puff and particle) of Lagrangian models evaluated as part of this

project. Model configuration (puff, particle, puff

‐ particle hybrid) are governed through the

HYSPLIT parameter INITD. A description of the INITD variable options is provided in Table 6

‐ 4. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Factor of 2 (FA2)

(Perfect = 100%)

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Factor of 5 (FA5)

(Perfect = 100%)

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)

(Perfect = 1)

0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7NOSPLITDEFAULTALLHRSCNSMINZISPLITROLDSYSSYSROLD Rank (RANK)

(Perfect = 4)135 Model configuration options for the nine sensitivity runs are detailed in Table 6

‐ 5. In general,

model control options were held to default values with two notable exceptions, the INITD and

NUMPAR variables. HYSPLIT performance is highly sensitive to the number of particles released

in the simulation. The HYSPLIT parameter NUMPAR controls the number of particles released

over the duration of the emissions release. The default value for NUMPAR is set to 2500, but

the user must take caution to insure that a sufficient number of particles are released to

provide a “smooth temporal change” in concentration fields (NOAA, 2009). The original NOAA

configuration for HYSPLIT was for INITD = 104 that is a particle/puff hybrid configuration (3D

part

– THh

‐ Pv) with NUMPAR set to 1500. Original sensitivity runs found that the concentration

fields were spotty; therefore, NUMPAR was set to 10000 to provide for smoother temporal

evolution of the concentration fields.

Table 6

‐ 4. HYSPLIT INITD options and descriptions.

INITD Value Description

0 (Default) 3D Particle Horizontal and Vertical

1 Gaussian horizontal and top

‐ hat vertical puff (Gh

‐ THv)

2 Top

‐ hat horizontal and vertical puff (THh

‐ THv)

3 Gaussian horizontal puff and vertical particle distribution (Gh

‐ Pv)

4 Top

‐ hat horizontal puff and vertical particle distribution (THh

‐ Pv)

103 3D particle (#0) converts to Gh

‐ Pv (#3)

104 3D particle (#0) converts to THh

‐ Pv (#4)

130 Gh

‐ Pv (#3) converts to 3D particle (#0)

140 THh

‐ Pv (#4) converts to 3D particle (#0)

Table 6

‐ 5. HYSPLIT sensitivity runs and relevant configuration parameters.

Sensitivity

Test INITD NUMPAR ISOT KSPL FRHS FRVS FRTS FRME

INITD0 0 10000 1 NA NA NA NA NA

INITD1 1 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD2 2 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD3 3 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD4 4 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD103 103 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD104 104 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD130 130 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD140 140 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10Figure 6

‐

tests. W

examina t

poorest s

values c o

higher P O

INITD2. S

addition a

3D parti c

3

, but its

The puff

‐

consiste n

Figure 6

‐

experim e ‐ 22 displays t

ide variatio n

t ion. For ex

s patial perf o

o mpared to a

O D, TS, and

S ince the F M

a l spatial m e

c le configur a

spatial perf o

‐ particle hy b

n tly better o

‐ 22. Spatial

e nts. t he spatial m

n in spatial p

ample, the t

o rmance of a

a ll other co n

lower FAR i n

M S score ex a

e trics use a c

a tion perfor m

o rmance de g

b rid configu r

o verall acros s

model perf o m odel perfo r

p erformanc e

t wo puff ba s

a ll of the ru n

n figurations

.

n compariso

a mines all m

c ontingency

m ed signific a

g raded wit h

r ations (INIT

s all four sp a

o rmance st a

136 r mance stat

e is noted ac

s ed configur a

n s with low P

. The 3D pa r

n, yet it ha d

odel/obser v

level of 10 0

a ntly better

h concentrat

D3, INTID4,

a tial metric s

a tistics for n istics for th e

ross the nin

a tions (INIT D

P OD and TS v

r ticle based

d a compara b

v ed values g

0 pg m ‐ 3

, it c a

at concent r

ion ranges b

INITD103, I N

s

.

n ine HYSPLI T e HYSPLIT IN

e runs and r

D 1 and INIT D

v alues and m

configurati o

b ly low FMS

reater than

a n be interp

r ation levels

b elow the c o

N ITD104) p e

T INITD sen s ITD sensitiv i

r equires clo s

D 2) showed

m uch highe r

o n (INITD0) h

to INITD1 a

0 and the

reted that t h

above 100 p

o ntingency l e

e rformed

s itiviity i ty

s er

the

r FAR

h ad

nd

h e

p g m ‐

e vel.137 Figure 6

‐ 23 displays the global statistics for the HYSPLIT sensitivity tests with Figures 6

‐ 23a and

6

‐ 23b containing the statistical metrics where the best performing model has the, respectively,

lowest and highest score. For the FOEX metrics, the INITD3 scores the best with a 3.4% FOEX

score followed by INITD4 (

‐ 7%), INITD104 (

‐ 8.6%), and finally INITD103 (

‐ 9.5%). INITD2 scored

worst with a ‐ 28.9%. INITD0, 1, 130, and 140 performed nearly as poorly with scores ranging

between

‐ 21.9% to

‐ 24%. Using the NMSE statistical performance metric, the best performing

configuration was INITD130, 140, and 3 with values of 17, 18, 19 pg m ‐ 3 respectively. The

model configurations with the highest predicted error were INITD1 and INITD2 with values of

approximately 325 and 333 pg m ‐ 3

. For the KS parameter, the four puff

‐ particle model

configuration options (INITD3,4,103,104) again showed the best scores.

For the within a factor of 2 and 5 metric (FA2 and FA5, Figure 6

‐ 23b, top), the hybrid puff

‐ particle configurations INITD3 and INITD4 and their counterpart particle

‐ puff configurations

INITD103 and INITD104 are clearly performing better than pure particle (INITD0) or puff

(INITD1 and INITD2) configurations. For the PCC metric, INITD140 had the highest (0.69)

followed by INITD104 (0.64) and INITD0 and 103 (0.63). Interestingly, it appears that the higher

PCC score for INITD103 is the main reason for the highest overall model RANK as both INITD3

and 103 had nearly identical spatial performance while INITD3 had slightly better KS scores.Figure 6

‐ 23a. Globa l model per f ormance s t

138 atistics for n ine HYSPLI T INITD sen sitivity test s

.Figure 6

‐ 23b. Globa l model per formance s t

139 atistics for nine HYSPL I T INITD sen sitivity test s

.140 Figure 6

‐ 24. Figure of Merit (FMS) spatial model performance statistics as a function of time

since the beginning of the tracer release for HYSPLIT INITD sensitivity analyses.

The final panel in Figure 6

‐ 23b (bottom right) displays the overall RANK statistic. The RANK

statistics orders the model performance of the HYSPLIT INITD configurations are as follows:

1. INITD103 (2.09)

2. INITD3 (2.03)

3. INITD104 (1.91)

4. INITD4 (1.85)

5. INITD0 (1.50)

6. INITD130 (1,47)

7. INITD140 (1.44)

8. INITD1 (1.16)

9. INITD2 (1.01)141 Based on this analysis the puff

‐ particle and particle

‐ puff hybrid configurations of the HYSPLIT

system are clearly the best performing, indicating a distinct operational advantage over pure

puff or particle configurations.

6.5 CONCLUSIONS OF THE MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE LRT DISPERSION

MODELS USING THE ETEX TRACER EXPERIMENT FIELD STUDY DATA

The evaluation of the five LRT dispersion models using a common MM5 dataset and the ETEX

database has provided interesting results about the current capability of LRT models to

reproduced observed tracer concentrations. Four of the five LRT models were able to

reproduce the observed tracer bifurcation at the farther downwind distances. The CALPUFF

model was unable reproduce the observed bifurcation of the tracer cloud and kept the

estimated tracer cloud in a circular Gaussian distribution that was advected too far north.

CALPUFF puff splitting sensitivity tests were performed to determine whether it would help

simulate the bifurcation of the tracer cloud but puff splitting had little effect on the CALPUFF

predictions.

CAMx sensitivity tests were conducted to examine vertical mixing and horizontal advection

solvers and the best performing CAMx model configuration was the one that is most frequently

used in applications, which includes using the CMAQ

‐ like vertical diffusion coefficients in

MM5CAMx and the PPM advection solver. The vertical diffusion algorithm had a much bigger

effect on CAMx model performance than the choice of horizontal advection solver.

The HYSPLIT sensitivity tests with different particle

‐ puff variations resulted in a wide range of

model performance with RANK scores that varied from 1.01 to 2.09.142 

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## Appendix A

Evaluation of the MM5 and CALMET Meteorological

Models Using the CAPTEX CTEX5 Field Experiment Data1 EVALUATION OF THE MM5 AND CALMET METEOROLOGICAL MODELS USING THE CAPTEX

CTEX5 FIELD EXPERIMENT DATA

Statistical evaluation of the prognostic (MM5) and diagnostic (CALMET) meteorological model

applications for the CTEX5 CAPTEX release was conducted using surface meteorological

measurements. For the MM5 datasets, performance for meteorological parameters of wind

(speed and direction), temperature, and humidity (mixing ratio) was examined. For the

CALMET experiments, CALMET estimated winds (speed and direction) were examined because

the two

‐ dimensional temperature and relative humidity fields output are simple interpolated

fields of the observations. Therefore, the evaluation for CALMET was restricted to winds where

the majority of change can be induced by both diagnostic terrain adjustments and varying the

OA strategy. Note that except for the NOOBS = 2 CALMET sensitivity tests (i.e., the “D” series of

CALMET sensitivity tests), surface meteorological observations are blended with the wind fields

in the CALMET STEP2 objective analysis (OA) procedure. Thus, the evaluation of the CALMET

wind fields is not a true independent evaluation as the surface meteorological observations

used in the evaluation are also used as input into CALMET. So we expect the CALMET wind

fields to compare better with observations than MM5, but that does not mean that CALMET is

producing better meteorological fields. As clearly shown by EPA (2009a,b), the CALMET

diagnostic (STEP1) and blending of observations using the STEP2 OA procedure can introduce

discontinuities and artifacts in the wind fields generated by the MM5/WRF prognostic

meteorological model that is used as input to CALMET, even though the CALMET winds may

match the observed surface winds at the locations of the monitoring sites does not necessarily

mean that CALMET is performing better than MM5/WRF.

The METSTAT software (Emery et al., 2001) was used to match MM5 output with observation

data. The MMIFStat software (McNally, 2010) tool was used to match CALMET output with

observation data. Emery and co

‐ workers (2001) have developed a set of “benchmarks” for

comparing prognostic meteorological model performance statistics metrics. These benchmarks

were developed after examining the performance of the MM5 and RAMS prognostic

meteorological models for over 30 applications. The purpose of the benchmarks is not to

assign a passing or failing grade, rather it is to put the prognostic meteorological model

performance in context. The surface meteorological model performance benchmarks from

Emery et al., (2001) are displayed in Table A

‐ 1. Note that the wind speed RMSE benchmark was

also used for wind speed MNGE given the similarity of the RMSE and MNGE performance

statistics. These benchmarks are not applicable for diagnostic model evaluations.2 Table A

‐ 1. Wind speed and wind direction benchmarks used to help judge the performance

of prognostic meteorological models (Source: Emery et al., 2001).

Wind Speed Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)

Mean Normalized Bias (NMB)

Index of Agreement (IOA) ≤ 2.0 m/s

≤ ±0.5 m/s

≥ 0.6

Wind Direction Mean Normalized Gross Error (MNGE)

Mean Normalized Bias (MNB) ≤ 30°

≤ ±10°

Temperature Mean Normalized Gross Error (MNGE)

Mean Normalized Bias (NMB)

Index of Agreement (IOA) ≤ 2.0 K

≤ ±0.5 m/s

≥ 0.8

Humidity Mean Normalized Gross Error (MNGE)

Mean Normalized Bias (NMB)

Index of Agreement (IOA) ≤ 2.0 g/kg

≤ ±1.0 g/kg

≥ 0.6

Table A

‐ 2 lists the CTEX5 MM5 sensitivity tests that are evaluated in this section. For the first

set of MM5 experiments (EXP1) MM5 was configured as it would be run during the late 1980s

and early 1990s using only 16 vertical layers, a single 80 km grid resolution and older

(Blackadar) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land soil module (LSM). There were several four

dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) experiments using this first MM5 configuration from

none (EXP1A) to analysis nudging above the PBL and at the surface (EXP1C).

The second set of MM5 experiments (EXP2A

‐ C) used a more recent MRF PBL scheme and 33

vertical layers with three levels of grid nesting (108/26/12 km) and was meant to represent the

way MM5 was run in the late 1990s/early 2000s. Three different levels of FDDA were used with

this MM5 configuration: none (EXP2A), analysis nudging above the PBL (EXP2B) and analysis

nudging above the PBL as well as at the surface (EXP2C). Note that additional sensitivity

experiments were planned using this second MM5 configuration (e.g., EXP2D and EXP2E), but

the MM5 model performance using the MRF PBL scheme was so poor that this MM5

configuration was abandoned.

The third set of MM5 experiments (EXP2F

‐ J) used a MM5 configuration similar to the second

set of MM5 experiments only with more vertical layers (43) and going back to the Blackadar PBL

scheme due to the poor performance of MRF. Additional FDDA sensitivity tests were

performed that increased the FDDA nudging strength by a factor of 2 and then added in

observation nudging. The final MM5 configuration (EXP3) was exactly the same as the third

configuration MM5 experiment EXP2H, only using the Pleim

‐ Xiu PBL/LSM scheme.

The CALMET sensitivity tests are listed in Table A

‐ 3. The MM5 output from either MM5 EXP1C

(80 km) or MM5 EXP2H (36 and 12 km) were used as initial guess winds in the CALMET

experiments. The CALMET sensitivity tests varied by the CALMET grid resolution, the source

and grid resolution of the MM5 output data used and how the surface and upper

‐ air

meteorological data were blended into the STEP1 wind fields in the STEP2 OA procedure. There

were seven basic CALMET configurations:3 BASE Use 80 km MM5 data from EXP1C and 18 km CALMET grid resolution.

1. Use 80 km MM5 data from EXP1C and 12 km CALMET grid resolution.

2. Use 80 km MM5 data from EXP1C and 4 km CALMET grid resolution.

3. Use 36 km MM5 data from EXP2H and 12 km CALMET grid resolution.

4. Use 12 km MM5 data from EXP2H and 12 km CALMET grid resolution.

5. Use 36 km MM5 data from EXP2H and 4 km CALMET grid resolution.

6. Use 12 km MM5 data from EXP2H and 4 km CALMET grid resolution.

The variations in the CALMET STEP2 OA procedures in the CALMET sensitivity test were as

follows:

A. Use meteorological observations with RMAX1/RMAX2

= 500/1000.

B. Use meteorological observations with RMAX1/RMAX2

= 100/200.

C. Use meteorological observations with RMAX1/RMAX2

= 10/100.

D. Don’t use any meteorological observations (NOOBS

= 2).

Table A

‐ 2. Summary of CTEX5 MM5 sensitivity tests.

Sensitivity

Test Horizontal

Grid Vertical

Layers PBL LSM FDDA

Used

1A_80km 80 km 16 BLKDR 5LAY No FDDA

1B_80km 80 km 16 BLKDR 5LAY Analysis Nudging

1C_80km 80 km 16 BLKDR 5LAY Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

2A_36km

2A_12km 108/36/12km 33 MRF 5LAY No FDDA

2B_36km

2B_12km 108/36/12km 33 MRF 5LAY Analysis Nudging

2C_36km 108/36/12km 33 MRF 5LAY Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

2F_36km

2G_12km 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR 5LAY No FDDA

2G_36km

2G_12km 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR 5LAY Analysis Nudging

2H_36km

2H_12km 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR 5LAY Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

2I_36km

2I_12km 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR 5LAY Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

FDDA x 2 strength

2J_36km

2J_12km 108/36/12km 43 BLKDR 5LAY Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging

FDDA x 2 strength

Observational Nudging

4_36km

4_12km 108/36/12km 43 PX PX Analysis Nudging

Surface Analysis Nudging4 Table A

‐ 3. Definition of the CTEX5 CALMET sensitivity tests and data sources.

Sensitivity

Test MM5 Experiment

and Resolution CALMET

Resolution RMAX1/RMAX2 NOOBS A

BASEA EXP1C

– 80 km 18 km 500/1000 0

BASEB EXP1C

– 80 km 18 km 100/200 0

BASEC EXP1C

– 80 km 18 km 10/100 0

BASED EXP1C

– 80 km 18 km NA 2

1A EXP1C

– 80 km 12 km 500/1000 0

1B EXP1C

– 80 km 12 km 100/200 0

1C EXP1C

– 80 km 12 km 10/100 0

1D EXP1C

– 80 km 12 km NA 2

2A EXP1C

– 80 km 4 km 500/1000 0

2B EXP1C

– 80 km 4 km 100/200 0

2C EXP1C

– 80 km 4 km 10/100 0

2D EXP1C

– 80 km 4 km NA 2

3A EXP2H

– 36 km 12 km 500/1000 0

3B EXP2H

– 36 km 12 km 100/200 0

3C EXP2H

– 36 km 12 km 10/100 0

3D EXP2H

– 36 km 12 km NA 2

4A EXP2H

– 12 km 12 km 500/1000 0

4B EXP2H

– 12 km 12 km 100/200 0

4C EXP2H

– 12 km 12 km 10/100 0

4D EXP2H

– 12 km 12 km NA 2

5A EXP2H

– 36 km 4 km 500/1000 0

5B EXP2H

– 36 km 4 km 100/200 0

5C EXP2H

– 36 km 4 km 10/100 0

5D EXP2H

– 36 km 4 km 0/0 2

6A EXP2H

– 12 km 4 km 500/1000 0

6B EXP2H

– 12 km 4 km 100/200 0

6C EXP2H

– 12 km 4 km 10/100 0

6D EXP2H

– 12 km 4 km NA 2

6K EXP2H

– 12 km 4 km NA 2

A. NOOBS = 0 use surface and upper

‐ air meteorological observations

NOOBS = 2 do not use surface and upper

‐ air meteorological observations

NOOBS = 1 use surface but not upper

‐ air meteorological observations5 Figure A

‐ 1 compares the MM5 model estimated wind fields. Figures A

‐ 2 and A

‐ 3 display the

temperature and humidity model performance for the MM5 simulations. As shown in Figure A

‐

2, the temperature performance for the three MM5 sensitivity tests using the MRF PBL scheme

(2A, 2B and 2C) is extremely poor using either the 36 or 12 km grid resolution having an

underestimation bias greater than

‐ 4 degrees that does not meet the temperature bias

performance goal ( ≤ ±0.5 degrees).

The wind speed and, especially, the wind direction performance of the MM5 simulations with

no FDDA (1A, 2A and 2F) is noticeably worse than when FDDA is used with the wind direction

bias and error exceeding the performance benchmarks when no FDDA is used. With the

exception of the EXP2H temperature underestimation tendency that barely exceeds the

performance benchmark, the MM5 EXP1C and EXP2H MM5 sensitivity tests that were used in

the CALMET sensitivity tests achieve the model performance benchmarks for wind speed, wind

direction, temperature and humidity.

Tables A

‐ 4 and A

‐ 5 show CALMET estimated winds compared to observations. The “A” series of

CALMET sensitivity tests (RMAX1/RMAX2 =500/1000) tends to have a wind speed

underestimation bias compared to the other RMAX1/RMAX2 settings for most of the base

CALMET settings (Figure A

‐ 1). The “A” and “B” series of CALMET runs tend to have the winds

that closest match observations compared to the “C” (RMAX1/RMAX2

= 10/100) and “D” (no

observations) series of CALMET runs. The use of 12 km CALMET grid resolution appears to

improve the CALMET model performance slightly compared to 80 and 36 km. The CALMET runs

using the MM5 EXP2H 36/12 km data appear to perform better than the ones that used the

MM5 EXP1C 80 km data. CALMET tends to slow down the MM5 wind speeds with the

slowdown increasing going from the “D” to “C” to “B” to “A” series of CALMET configurations

such that the “A” series has a significant wind speed underestimation tendency.Figure A

‐

for MM 5 ‐ 1. Wind sp

5 runs. eed bias (m /s), wind s p

6 eed error ( m /s) and wi nd directio n error (deg r ees)Figure A

‐

modelin g 2. Temper a

g

. ture bias a nd error (d e

7 grees K) of the CTEX5 M M5 mete o rologicalFigure A

‐ 3. Humidit y bias and e rror (g/kg) o

8 f the CTEX 5 MM5 met eorological modeling.9 Table A

‐ 4. Comparison of CTEX5 MM5 meteorological simulation EXP1C and CALMET

simulations using EXP1C MM5 80 km data as input.

Wind Speed (m/s) W ind Direction (°)

Bias Error RMSE Bias Error

Benchmark ≤ ±0.5 ≤ 2.0 ≤ 2.0 ≤ ± 10 ≤ 30

MM5_EXP1C 0.17 1.40 1.83 4.52 25.1

CALMET

BASEA

‐ 0.35 0.89 1.38

‐ 0.42 15.9

BASEB

‐ 0.11 0.84 1.32 1.01 15.2

BASEC

‐ 0.01 1.26 1.67 4.26 23.8

BASED 0.03 1.34 1.76 4.53 25.1

1A

‐ 0.29 0.82 1.36

‐ 0.56 14.9

1B 0.06 0.78 1.3 0.67 14.3

1C

‐ 0.03 1.22 1.62 3.80 22.9

1D 0.02 1.34 1.77 4.45 25.1

2A

‐ 0.21 0.71 1.33

‐ 0.78 13.9

2B

‐ 0.02 0.69 1.29 0.31 13.3

2C

‐ 0.08 0.96 1.40 2.28 17.9

2D 0.00 1.34 1.77 4.08 25.010 Table A

‐ 5. Comparison of CTEX5 MM5 meteorological simulation EXP2H and CALMET

simulations using EXP2H MM5 36 and 12 km data as input.

Wind Speed (m/s) Wind Direction (°)

Bias Error RMSE Bias Error

Benchmark ≤ ±0.5 ≤ 2.0 ≤ 2.0 ≤ ±10 ≤ 30

MM5_EXP2H 0.32 1.37 1.78 5.07 24.2

CALMET

3A

‐ 0.29 0.82 1.35

‐ 0.56 14.9

3B

‐ 0.01 0.78 1.29 0.83 14.2

3C 0.17 1.20 1.59 4.50 22.0

3D 0.24 1.34 1.74 5.13 24.1

4A

‐ 0.29 0.82 1.35

‐ 0.56 14.9

4B

‐ 0.03 0.76 1.25 0.36 14.0

4C 0.07 1.16 1.54 3.36 21.4

4D 0.13 1.28 1.67 3.83 23.5

5A

‐ 0.21 0.71 1.33

‐ 0.78 13.9

5B 0.03 0.69 1.28 0.50 13.2

5C 0.08 0.95 1.39 2.87 17.4

5D 0.21 1.33 1.75 4.79 24.1

5K 0.04 0.69 1.28 0.47 13.2

6A

‐ 0.21 0.71 1.33

‐ 0.79 13.9

6B

‐ 0.05 0.67 1.24 0.04 13.0

6C

‐ 0.02 0.92 1.33 1.84 16.7

6D

‐ 0.26 1.33 1.77 4.67 24.5

6K 0.00 0.66 1.23 0.00 13.0

## Appendix B

EVALUATION OF VARIOUS CONFIGURATIONS OF THE

CALMET METEOROLOGICAL MODEL USING

THE CAPTEX CTEX3 FIELD EXPERIMENT DATA1 B.1 CALMET MODEL EVALUATION TO IDENTIFY RECOMMENDED CONFIGURATION

The CAPTEX Release #3 (CTEX3) meteorological database was used to evaluate different

configurations of the CALMET meteorological model for the purposes of helping to identify a

recommended configuration for regulatory far

‐ field CALMET/CALPUFF modeling. The results

from these CALMET CTEX3 sensitivity tests were used in part to define the recommended

CALMET model options in the August 31, 2009 Memorandum from the EPA/OAQPS Air Quality

Modeling Group “Clarifications on EPA

‐ FLM Recommended Settings for CALMET (i.e., the 2009

Clarification Memorandum). The EPA Clarification Memorandum on CALMET settings (EPA,

2009a) was a follow

‐ up to a draft May 27, 2009 document: “Reassessment of the Interagency

Workgroup on Air Quality Modeling (IWAQM) Phase 2 Summary Report: Revisions to Phase 2

Recommendations” (EPA, 2009a). The IWAQM Phase 2 Reassessment Report recommended

settings for CALMET that were intended to facilitate the direct “pass through” of prognostic

meteorological model (e.g., MM5 and WRF) output to CALPUFF as much as possible. However,

in subsequent testing of the new recommended CALMET settings in the IWAQM Phase 2

Reassessment Report using the CTEX3 database, the performance of CALMET degraded

compared to some other settings. This led to the August 31, 2009 Clarification Memorandum

of recommended CALMET settings for regulatory far

‐ field modeling.

EPA examined 31 different configurations of the CALMET diagnostic meteorological model

using the CTEX3 database. The resultant CALMET wind fields were paired in space and time

with observations using the CALMETSTAT tool. CALMETSTAT is an adaptation of the METSTAT

program that is typically used to evaluate the MM5 and WRF prognostic meteorological models

against surface meteorological observations.

Note that since CALMET uses some of the same meteorological observations as input as used in

the evaluation database, this is not a true evaluation as by design CALMET’s STEP2 objective

analysis (OA) will modify the wind field to make the winds better match the observations at the

locations of the monitoring sites. But as noted by EPA (2009a,b), this can be at the expense of

degrading the wind fields.

Table B

‐ 1 lists the 31 CALMET sensitivity tests that were performed using the CTEX3 modeling

database. These CALMET sensitivity tests differed in the following aspects:

• The resolution of the CALMET gridded fields (18, 12 and 4 km);

• The resolution of the MM5 prognostic meteorological model output used as input to

CALMET (80, 36 and 12 km);

• How the MM5 data was used in CALMET (i.e., as a first guess field prior to the STEP 1

diagnostic effects, as the STEP 1 wind fields prior to STEP 2 blending (objective analysis or

OA) of observations or the MM5 data are not used at all); and

• Whether the surface and upper

‐ air meteorological observations were used (NOOBS=0) or

not (NOOBS=2).2 Table B

‐ 1. CTEX3 CALMET sensitivity simulations performed for the CTEX3 database.

RUN CALMET

Resolution MM4/MM5

Resolution NOOBS RMAX1/RMAX2 IPROG

BASE A 18

‐ km 80

‐ km MM4 0 500/1000 STEP 1

BASE B 18

‐ km 80

‐ km MM4 0 500/1000 First Guess

BASE C 18

‐ km 80

‐ km MM4 0 10/100 First Guess

BASE D 18

‐ km 80

‐ km MM4 0 100/200 First Guess

BASE E 18

‐ km 80

‐ km MM4 0 10/100 STEP 1

BASE F 18

‐ km 80

‐ km MM4 0 10/100 First Guess

BASE G A 18

‐ km 80

‐ km MM4 2 NA First Guess

BASE H 18

‐ km NA 0 500/1000 NA

BASE I 18

‐ km NA 0 100/200 NA

BASE J 18

‐ km NA 0 10/100 NA

BASE K 18

‐ km 80

‐ km MM4 0 100/200 First Guess B

EXP 1A 18

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 0 500/1000 First Guess

EXP 1B 18

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 0 100/200 First Guess

EXP 1C 18

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 0 10/100 First Guess

EXP 1D 18

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 2 NA First Guess

EXP 3A 12

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 0 500/1000 First Guess

EXP 3B 12

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 0 100/200 First Guess

EXP 3C 12

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 0 10/100 First Guess

EXP 3D 12

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 2 NA First Guess

EXP 4A 12

‐ km 12

‐ km MM5 0 500/1000 First Guess

EXP 4B 12

‐ km 12

‐ km MM5 0 100/200 First Guess

EXP 4C 12

‐ km 12

‐ km MM5 0 10/100 First Guess

EXP 4D 12

‐ km 12

‐ km MM5 2 NA First Guess

EXP 5A 4

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 0 500/1000 First Guess

EXP 5B 4

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 0 100/200 First Guess

EXP 5C 4

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 0 10/100 First Guess

EXP 5D 4

‐ km 36

‐ km MM5 2 NA First Guess

EXP 6A 4

‐ km 12

‐ km MM5 0 500/1000 First Guess

EXP 6B 4

‐ km 12

‐ km MM5 0 100/200 First Guess

EXP 6C 4

‐ km 12

‐ km MM5 0 10/100 First Guess

EXP 6D 4

‐ km 12

‐ km MM5 2 NA First Guess

A. Base G CALMET simulation obtained an Erro r in MIXDT2 – HTOLD so run not completed

B. Base K did not do any diagnostic adjustments to the wind fieldsFigure B

‐

Base A t h

no prog n

model c o

Clarifica t

provide d

performi

settings,

not perf o

are iden t

directio n

slightly w

Figure B

‐

sensitivi t ‐ 1 displays t h

h rough Base

n ostic mete o

o nfiguration

t ion Memor a

d in Table B

‐ 2

ng simulati o

whereas Ba

o rm any dia g

t ical, where a

n statistics f o

w orse.

‐ 1. Wind sp

t y simulatio h e wind spe e

K CALMET s

o rological m o

that is cons

a ndum. Th e

2

. CALMET s

o ns for wind

se H and I u

g nostic win d

a s the ones f

o r Base D an

eed and wi n

ns. e d and dire c

s ensitivity t e

o del data a s

istent with t

e numerical v

s ensitivity si

s from this g

se no MM4

d field adjus t

f or Base H a

d K are alm o

n d direction

3 c tion model

e st simulati o

s input. The

t he recomm

v alues of th e

mulations B

g roup. Base

data and B a

t ments. Th e

nd I are slig h

o st identical

compariso n performan c

o ns that use d

dark gray b a

endations i n

e model per f

B ase D, H, I a

D is the cu r

a se K is like B

e wind spee d

h tly worse t h

and again t h

n s with obs e c e statistical

d either the

a r represen t

n the Augus t

f ormance s t

nd K are th e

r rent recom m

B ase D only C

d statistics f o

h an Base D a

h e ones for

e rvations fo metric for t

80 km MM 4

t s the CALM

t 31, 2009

t atistics are

e best

m ended CA L

C ALMET do e

o r Base D a n

a nd K. The w

Base H and

r CTEX3 CA L he

4 or

ET

L MET

e s

n d K

w ind

I are

L MET4 Figure B

‐ 1 displays the wind speed and direction performance metrics for the second group of

CALMET sensitivity tests that uses CALMET grid resolutions of 18 km (EXP1) and 12 km (EXP3

and EXP4) and uses 36 km MM5 (EXP1 and EXP3) and 12 km MM5 (EXP4) data as input to

CALMET. EXP1B, EXP3B and EXP4B CALMET sensitivity tests all conform to the recommended

settings in the Clarification Memorandum. The “B” series most closely matches observation

data.

The CALMET model performance statistics for the final group of CTEX3 sensitivity tests

corresponding to the EXP5 and EXP6 series of experiments are shown in Figure B

‐ 1. These

experiments correspond to using a 4 km grid resolution in CALMET, which is the finest scale

recommended in the Clarification Memorandum. They differ in the resolution of MM5 data

used as input (36 or 12 km) and how observations are blended into the wind fields (different

RMAX1/RMAX2 or no observations). When looking across all wind speed and direction

statistics, the CALMET sensitivity simulations that conform to the CALMET settings in the

August 2009 Clarification Memorandum (EXP5B and EXP6B) compare most closely to

observations.

Figure B

‐ 1 displays the CALMET model performance statistics for all sensitivity tests that

conform to the recommended CALMET settings in the Clarification Memorandum. The

Clarification Memorandum specifies that prognostic meteorological model output data should

be used as a first guess wind field in CALMET (IPROG

= 14), but doesn’t specify the resolution

that the prognostic meteorological model should be run at. For the CALMET grid resolution,

the Clarification Memorandum just specifies that it should be ≥ 4 km. Thus these CALMET

sensitivity tests vary by grid resolution used in the prognostic meteorological model (80, 36 and

12 km) whose output is used as input to CALMET and the CALMET grid resolution (18, 12 and 4

km).5 Table B

‐ 2a. Summary wind speed model performance statistics for the CALMET CTEX3

sensitivity tests.

RUN WS Gross Error (ms ‐ 1 ) WS Bias

(ms ‐ 1 ) WS RMSE

(ms ‐ 1 ) IOA

BASE A 0.87

‐ 0.43 0.81

BASE B 0.85

‐ 0.44 1.60 0.82

BASE C 1.22

‐ 0.44 1.62 0.63

BASE D 0.80

‐ 0.29 1.23 0.83

BASE E 1.14

‐ 0.43 1.52 0.68

BASE F 1.22

‐ 0.44 1.62 0.63

BASE G NA NA NA NA

BASE H 0.85

‐ 0.44 1.30 0.82

BASE I 0.81

‐ 0.36 1.30 0.82

BASE J 0.93

‐ 0.58 1.36 0.80

BASE K 0.80

‐ 0.29 1.23 0.83

EXP 1A 0.85

‐ 0.44 1.29 0.82

EXP 1B 0.79

‐ 0.29 1.22 0.83

EXP 1C 1.18

‐ 0.34 1.57 0.68

EXP 1D 1.24

‐ 0.34 1.64 0.65

EXP 3A 0.78

‐ 0.37 1.26 0.83

EXP 3B 0.73

‐ 0.24 1.20 0.85

EXP 3C 1.14

‐ 0.37 1.52 0.70

EXP 3D 1.24

‐ 0.38 1.64 0.65

EXP 4A 0.78

‐ 0.37 1.26 0.83

EXP 4B 0.73

‐ 0.24 1.20 0.85

EXP 4C 1.14

‐ 0.37 1.52 0.70

EXP 4D 1.24

‐ 0.38 1.64 0.65

EXP 5A 0.67

‐ 0.29 1.24 0.84

EXP 5B 0.65

‐ 0.18 1.19 0.85

EXP 5C 0.91

‐ 0.33 1.31 0.80

EXP 5D 1.25

‐ 0.45 1.25 0.65

EXP 6A 0.67

‐ 0.29 1.24 0.84

EXP 6B 0.65

‐ 0.18 1.19 0.85

EXP 6C 0.91

‐ 0.33 1.31 0.80

EXP 6D 1.25

‐ 0.45 1.66 0.656 Table B

‐ 2b. Summary wind direction model performance statistics for the CALMET CTEX3

sensitivity tests.

RUN WD Gross Error (deg.) WD Bias (deg.)

BASE A 18.06 0.73

BASE B 18.62

‐ 0.74

BASE C 23.91 2.63

BASE D 16.92 0.40

BASE E 22.31 2.68

BASE F 23.91 2.63

BASE G NA NA

BASE H 18.70

‐ 0.79

BASE I 18.22

‐ 0.65

BASE J 19.30

‐ 0.85

BASE K 16.97 0.38

EXP 1A 18.64

‐ 0.72

EXP 1B 17.59 1.15

EXP 1C 26.43 2.99

EXP 1D 27.99 3.11

EXP 3A 17.80

‐ 0.82

EXP 3B 16.75 0.98

EXP 3C 25.25 2.57

EXP 3D 27.93 2.94

EXP 4A 17.80

‐ 0.82

EXP 4B 16.75 0.98

EXP 4C 25.25 2.57

EXP 4D 27.93 2.94

EXP 5A 16.73

‐ 1.00

EXP 5B 15.85 0.72

EXP 5C 20.11 1.42

EXP 5D 28.05 2.43

EXP 6A 16.73

‐ 1.00

EXP 6B 15.85 0.72

EXP 6C 20.11 1.42

EXP 6D 28.05 2.437 B.2 CONCLUSIONS OF CTEX3 CALMET SENSITIVITY TESTS

The evaluation of the CALMET modeling system using the CTEX3 field experiment database is

not a true independent evaluation because some of the surface meteorological observations

used as the evaluation database are also used as input into CALMET. Thus, care should be

taken in the interpretation of the CALMET meteorological model evaluation. In fact, EPA has

demonstrated that CALMET’s blending of meteorological observations with MM5 prognostic

meteorological model fields can actually produce unrealistic results in the wind fields (e.g.,

discontinuities around the wind observation sites) at the same time as improving the CALMET

statistical model performance at the meteorological monitoring sites.

Given these caveats, when looking at the alternative CALMET settings for RMAX1/RMAX2 the

CALMET configuration that best matches observed winds is with the 100/200 RMAX1/RMAX2

setting as recommended in the 2009 Clarification Memorandum. Other recommended settings

in the 2009 Clarification Memorandum (e.g., use of prognostic meteorological data as the initial

first guess wind field) are supported by the CALMET CTEX3 model evaluation. Note that better

wind field comparisons using the 2009 Clarification Memorandum recommended settings for

RMAX1/RMAX2 was also seen for the CTEX5 CALMET evaluation presented in Appendix A.

Although the CALMET meteorological model performance evaluation for alternative model

settings support the recommended 100/200 CALMET settings for RMAX1/RMAX2 in the

Clarification Memorandum, the evaluation of the CALPUFF/CALMET modeling system for the

CTEX3 and CTEX5 field experiments against observed tracer data presented in Chapter 5 come

to an alternative conclusion. The CALPUFF/CALMET evaluation against the observed tracer

observations in the CTEX3 and CTEX5 experiments found that different RMAX1/RMAX2

configurations produced better CALPUFF/CALMET tracer model performance for the two

CAPTEX experiments, but that the 100/200 recommended setting always produced the worst

CALPUFF/CALMET model performance. Given the large differences in the in the rankings of the

ability of the CALPUFF to reproduce the observed tracer concentrations across the different

meteorological model configurations in the two CAPTEX field experiments, it is unclear whether

a third experiment would produce another set of rankings.

## Appendix C

INTERCOMPARISON OF SIX LRT MODELS AGAINST THE CAPTEX

RELEASE 3 AND RELEASE 5 FIELD EXPERIMENT DATA1 C.1 INTRODUCTION

In this section, the evaluation of six LRT dispersion models (CALPUFF, SCIPUFF, HYSPLIT,

FLEXPART, CAMx, and CALGRID) against the Cross Appalachian Tracer Study (CAPTEX) (Section

5) is presented. The ATMES

‐ II evaluation framework described in Section 2.4.3.1 and 2.4.3.3

are utilized to conduct this evaluation. The CAPTEX evaluations generally follow the ETEX

evaluation paradigm, all models presented in this section use a common 36 km MM5

meteorological data source. Thus the results from the CALMET/CALPUFF sensitivities are not

presented because they are not within the scope of this evaluation framework. However, we

do wish to note that CALPUFF/CALMET performance for CAPTEX

‐ 5 (EXP6C) was quite good, and

exceeded that of the other models involved in the model intercomparison portion of this

section; however, due to a different source of meteorology, only the MMIF/CALPUFF results for

the same MM5 run and grid resolution are included.

In addition to the six model intercomparison, sensitivities of the HYSPLIT INITD and CAMx

vertical diffusion and horizontal advection solver (Kz/advection solver) combinations are also

presented. The best performing INITD and Kz/advection solver combinations are presented for

purposes of model intercomparison.

C.2 HYSPLIT SENSITIVITY TESTS

Consistent with the approach taken for evaluating HYSPLIT for the European Tracer Experiment

discussed in Section 6.4.5, HYSPLIT was evaluated using each of the nine INITD model

configurations. The HYSPLIT INITD option defines the technical formulation of the dispersion

model from fully particle to fully Lagrangian puff with several hybrid particle/puff combinations.

A description of the INITD variable options is provided in Table 6

‐ 4. The HYSPLIT configurations

for each INITD option are presented in Table C

‐ 1.

Table C

‐ 1. HYSPLIT sensitivity runs and relevant configuration parameters.

Sensitivity

Test INITD NUMPAR ISOT KSPL FRHS FRVS FRTS FRME

INITD0 0 10000 1 NA NA NA NA NA

INITD1 1 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD2 2 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD3 3 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD4 4 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD103 103 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD104 104 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD130 130 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10

INITD140 140 10000 1 1 1.0 0.01 0.10 0.10C.2.1 H Y

Figure C

‐

tests. U n

perform a

scores f o

configur a

Consiste n

perform a

Overall f o

over an o

Figure C

‐

experim e Y SPLIT SPAT I

‐ 1 displays t h

n like the res

a nce is muc h

o r POD, thei r

a tions. INIT D

n t with the E

a nce statisti c

o r CAPTEX R

o ther for the

‐ 1. Spatial m

e nts for CA P I AL PERFOR

h e spatial m

ults from th

h smaller. W

r scores for a

D 3 has the h

E TEX results

c s across sp a

R elease 3, th

four spatial

m odel perfo

P TEX Releas e MANCE FO R

odel perfor m

e HYSPLIT s e

W hile the pu f

a ll other spa

h ighest FMS

, the puff c o

a tial catego r

ere appear s

categories o

rmance sta t

e 3.

2 R CAPTEX R E

m ance stati s

e nsitivities f r

f f based INI T

tial categor i

score (34% )

o nfiguration

r ies than th e

s to be little a

o f model p e

t istics for ni n E LEASE 3

s tics for the

r om ETEX, t h

T D configur a

i es is nearly

) with INITD 1

INITD1 (Gh

‐

e INITD2 pu f

a dvantage o

e rformance m

n e HYSPLIT HYSPLIT INI T

h e variation

a tions show e

identical to

1 nearly the

‐ Thv) yielde d

f f configurat

o f one INITD

m etrics.

INITD sensi T D sensitivit

in spatial

e d slightly l o

the other I N

same at 33 %

d slightly be t

ion (Thh

‐ Th v

configurati o

tiviity y

o wer

N ITD

%

.

t ter

v ).

o nC.2.2 H Y

Figures C

and C

‐ 3 c

respecti v

nearly 0 %

score fol

perform a

1.57 for F

the best

score wi t

For the w

configur a

and INIT D

Figure C.

ranging f

Figure C

‐

CAPTEX R Y SPLIT GLO B

C

‐ 2 and C

‐ 3 d

c ontaining t h

v ely, lowest

%

, followed c

lowed by IN

a nce metric s

F B). The fo u

overall scor e

t h 30% and 3

w ithin a fact o

a tions INITD

D 104 perfor

2.2

‐ 2, bott o

f rom ‐ 0.04 t o

‐ 2. Global m

R elease 3. B AL STATIST I

d isplay the g

h e statistica

and highest

c losely by I N

ITD4. The t w

s (with valu e

u r puff

‐ parti c

e s for both N

3 1% respec t

o r of 2 and 5

3 and INITD

m slightly b e

o m left), all o

o ‐ 0.09.

m odel perfo r I CS FOR CA P

g lobal statis t

l metrics w h

score. For t

N ITD1 and I N

w o puff con f

e s of approx

c le model c o

N MSE and F

t ively, with t

5 metric (FA 2

4 and their c

e tter than t h

o f the HYSPL

r mance stat

3 P TEX RELEA S

t ics for the H

h ere the bes t

t he FOEX m e

N ITD2. INIT D

f igurations h

imately 127

o nfiguration

B. INITD1 a n

he poorest p

2 and FA5, F

c ounterpart

h e other co n

IT configura

istics for ni n S E 3

H YSPLIT sen s

t performin g

e trics, INITD

D 3 scores th e

h ad the poo r

and 130 pg

options (IN

n d INITD2 e x

p erforming b

F igure C

‐ 3, t o

particle

‐ pu f

n figurations.

tions show a

n e HYSPLIT I s itivity tests w

g model has

140 scores t

e poorest w

r est NMSE a

m ‐ 3 for erro

ITD3,4,103, 1

x hibited the

b eing INITD 3

o p), the hyb

f f configura t

For the PC C

a slight neg a

NITD sensit w ith Figure s

the,

t he best wit h

ith a 21% F O

a nd FB statis

r and 1.56 a

1 04) exhibit e

best overal

3 with 49%.

rid puff

‐ par t

t ions INITD1

C metric (P C

a tive correla

ivity tests f o s C

‐ 2

h

O EX

tical

nd

e d

l KSP

t icle

03

C C,

tion

o rFigure C

‐

CAPTEX R ‐ 3. Global m

R elease 3. m odel perfo r mance stat

4 istics for ni n e HYSPLIT I NITD sensit ivity tests f o r5 The final panel in Figure C

‐ 3 (bottom right) displays the overall RANK statistic. The RANK

statistics orders the model performance of the HYSPLIT INITD configurations as follows:

1. INITD1 (1.25)

2. INITD2 (1.21)

3. INITD104 (1.19)

4. INITD130 (1.19)

5. INITD0 (1.18)

6. INITD103 (1.15)

7. INITD4 (1.14)

8. INITD3 (1.11)

9. INITD140 (1.10)

The RANK performance statistics results presented above raise some interesting questions

about the RANK metric. The puff based configurations (INITD1 and INITD2) are the highest

ranking with scores using the RANK metric with values of 1.25 and 1.21 respectively. However,

each of these options had the worst (highest) NMSE and FB scores, while puff

‐ particle

configurations ranking slightly less using the RANK metric (1.1 to 1.19) have NMSE scores that

are much better (only one

‐ third) those for the puff configurations as well as slightly lower FB

scores. On the basis of RANK scores, the INITD1 and INITD2 configurations are the best

performing, but based upon other model performance statistics that are not included as the

four statistical metrics that make up the RANK metric (i.e., PCC, FB, FMS and KSP), the puff

‐ particle hybrid configurations are better performing. Thus care must be taken in interpreting

model performance based solely on the RANK score and its use in performing model

intercomparisons and we recommend examining the whole suite of statistical performance

metrics, as well as graphical representation of model performance, to come to conclusions

regarding model performance.

C.2.3 HYSPLIT SPATIAL STATISTICS FOR CAPTEX RELEASE 5

Figure C

‐ 4 displays the spatial model performance statistics for the HYSPLIT INITD sensitivity

tests for CAPTEX Release 5. Overall, the spatial performance for this experiment is very similar

to the results obtained from the ETEX INITD sensitivities for HYSPLIT. The puff configurations

(INITD1 and INITD2) exhibited the poorest performance across all of the spatial statistics.

INITD2 had the poorest FMS score with 5%, followed by INITD1 with 9.6%. INITD3 had the best

FMS score of 19.66%, but less than 2% separated all of the remaining particle and puff

‐ particle

INITD configurations. The particle mode (INITD0) exhibited the best TS with 24.4% with less

than 1.5% separating INITD103, 130, and 140 from INITD0. Consistently, the puff configurations

exhibited the lowest TS among the nine configurations, both with 7.9%.Figure C

‐

experim e

C.2.4 H Y

Figures C

Release 5

model h a

left), INI T

scored t h

configur a

approxi m

best ove r

exhibite d

score wi t

For the w

configur a

FA5. INI T

INITD14 0

lower F A

scores.

0.63, foll

(INITD0) ‐ 4. Spatial m

e nts for CA P

Y SPLIT GLO B

C

‐ 5 and C

‐ 6 d

5 where the

a s the, resp e

T D3 and INI T

h e poorest w

a tions had t h

m ately 72.7 a

r all scores f o

d the poore s

t h 28%, foll o

w ithin a fact o

a tions perfo

T D0 showe d

0 for FA2 an d

A 2 scores (3. 4

For the PCC

owed closel

to 0.62 (INI T m odel perfo

P TEX Releas e

B AL STATIST I

d isplay the g

two figures

e ctively, low

T D4 showed

w ith a ‐ 22% F

h e poorest N

a nd 63.6 pg

o r both NM S

s t KSP score s

o wed by INI T

o r of 2 and 5

rmed the p o

d the best F A

d INITD3 an d

4 %/2.8%) t h

metric (PC C

y by the ot h

T D2). rmance sta t

e 5.

I CS FOR CA P

g lobal statis t

containing t

est and hig h

the best sc o

F OEX score f

N MSE and F B

m ‐ 3 for erro r

S E and FB (1

s with 44% a

T D4 (30%),

5 metric (FA 2

o orest with s

A 2/FA5 scor e

d INITD4 for

h an the othe

C

, Figure C

‐ 6

, h er puff

‐ par t

6 t istics for ni n

P TEX RELEA S

t ics for the H

t he statistic a

h est score. F

o res with

‐ 3 %

f ollowed by

B statistical

r and 1.45 a n

6.6 pg m ‐ 3 a

a nd 48% res p

INITD0 and

2 and FA5, F

s cores betw e

e s with 6.9 %

FA5. Curio u

r puff

‐ parti c

, bottom lef t

t icle or parti c n e HYSPLIT

S E 5

H YSPLIT sen s

a l metrics w

F or the FOE X

% and

‐ 7.9 %

INITD1 wit h

performanc

n d 1.41 for F

nd 0.88 res p

p ectively. I N

INIT130 (31

F igure C

‐ 6, t o

e en 0%

‐ 1 %

% /11.8%, foll

u sly, INITD3

c le hybrid c o

t ), INITD3 h a

c le configur a .

INITD sensi

s itivity tests f

w here the be

X metrics (Fi

% respectivel

h

‐ 18.3%. Th

e metrics ( w

F B). INITD3

p ectively. I N

N ITD104 ha d

%), and INI T

o p), the puf f

% for FA2 an d

owed by INI

and INITD4

o nfiguration s

a d the high e

a tions rangi n tiviity

f or CAPTEX

st performi n

gure C

‐ 5, to

y. INITD2

e two puff

w ith values o

exhibited t h

N ITD1 and I N

d the best K S

T D140 (32%)

f INITD

d 1%

‐ 4.8% f

TD130 and

had slightly

s

, but highe r

e st score wit

n g from 0.5 1 n g

p

o f

h e

N ITD2

S P

.

f or

r FA5

h

1Figure C

‐

CAPTEX R ‐ 5. Global m

R elease 5. m odel perfo r mance stat

7 istics for ni n e HYSPLIT I NITD sensit ivity tests f o rFigure C

‐

CAPTEX R

The final

statistics

1. I N

2. I N

3. I N

4. I N

5. I N

6. I N

7. I N

8. I N

9. I N ‐ 6. Global m

R elease 5.

panel in Fi g

orders the m

N ITD4 (1.82 )

N ITD104 (1. 8

N ITD3 (1.79 )

N ITD130 (1. 7

N ITD140 (1. 7

N ITD0 (1.75 )

N ITD103 (1. 6

N ITD1 (0.94 )

N ITD2 (0.88 ) m odel perfo r

g ure C

‐ 6 (bo t

m odel perf o

)

8 0)

)

7 8)

7 6)

)

6 8)

)

) r mance stat

t tom right) d

o rmance of t

8 istics for ni n

d isplays the

t he HYSPLIT n e HYSPLIT I

overall RAN

INITD confi g NITD sensit

K statistic. T

g urations ar e ivity tests f o

T he RANK

e as follows : o r9 C.3 CAMX SENSITIVITY TESTS

Following the general design of the study for the ETEX tracer database, CAMx sensitivity tests

described in Section 6.4.3, thirty

‐ two CAMx sensitivity tests were conducted to investigate the

effects of vertical diffusion, horizontal advection solvers and use of the sub

‐ grid scale Plume

‐ in

‐

Grid (PiG) module on the model performance for the CAPTEX tracer experiment releases 3 and

5. In addition to the sixteen sensitivities conducted for ETEX, a similar set of sensitivity analyses

were conducted using the newer ACM2 vertical diffusion scheme (Pleim, 2007; ENVIRON, 2010)

introduced into CAMx as of Version 5.20 as an alternative to the more traditional fully K

‐ theory

vertical diffusion schemes that were the only options available in previous versions of CAMx.

C.3.1 SPATIAL PERFORMANCE FOR CTEX3 NOPIG EXPERIMENTS

Figure C

‐ 7 displays the CAMx spatial model performance statistics for the sensitivity tests that

were run without using the PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff module. For the FMS statistic, the ACM2,

TKE, and CMAQ Kz exhibit very similar performance (40.9%, 40.9%, and 39.4% respectively).

OB70 exhibits the poorest performance with 33.5% for FMS.

For the FAR statistic, ACM2/Bott has the best score (55.6%) followed by TKE/PPM and

ACM2/PPM (tied at 58.5%). Overall ACM2 is the best performing vertical diffusion formulation

and PPM performs better than BOTT for horizontal advection using the FAR statistic.

For the POD and TS spatial statistics, the CMAQ, TKE, and ACM2 vertical diffusion algorithms

perform similarly, and all are substantially better than the OB70 approach (15% lower than

other vertical diffusion schemes). ACM2/BOTT has the best TS score with 28.6% followed by

ACM2/PPM and TKE/PPM (tied at 28.33%). CMAQ/PPM exhibits the best POD score with 52.8%

followed by CMAQ/BOTT, ACM2/PPM, and TKE/PPM (tied at 47.2%). Consistent with the ETEX

spatial results, there are much smaller differences in the model performance using the two

advection solvers for the POD and TS statistics compared to differences between Kz options.

In summary, based on the spatial statistics, the ACM2, CMAQ, and TKE Kz algorithms appear to

be performing similarly, with the older OB70 option exhibiting much poorer overall

performance. The differences in vertical diffusion algorithms have a greater effect on CAMx

model performance than the differences in horizontal advection solvers.Figure C

‐

the PiG s

C.3.2 Gl o

Figures C

statistic a

score. F o

ACM2 al g

vertical d

score. T h

For the N

perform

NMSE sc

configur a

also the b

scheme (

for both

For the w

are the b

combina

but the C

For the P

with val u

overall. ‐ 7. Spatial m

s ubgrid

‐ scal e

o bal Statist i

C

‐ 8 and C

‐ 9 d

a l metrics w h

o r the FOEX

g orithm wit h

d iffusion alg o

h e CMAQ/B O

N MSE statist

best (28 to 3

ores with e r

a tions. Con s

b est perfor m

( Figure C

‐ 8,

of the FB a n

w ithin a fact o

b est perfor m

tions perfor

C MAQ com b

P CC metric, t

u es ranging f

Interestingl y m odel perfo

e puff mod u

cal Perfor m

d isplays the

h ere the be s

metric, the

h scores of 3

o rithm/adv e

O TT (9.1%) a

ical perfor m

3 0 pgm ‐ 3 ) (F

r ror values m

s istent with

m ing metho d

bottom left )

n d KSP metri

o r of 2 and 5

m ing with val

m similarly,

inations ex h

t he CMAQ a

f rom 0.54 t o

y

, for most o rmance sta t

u le (NoPiG) f

m ance for CT

global stati s

s t performin

vertical diff u

3 .26% (ACM 2

e ction solve r

a nd CMAQ/ P

m ance metri c

igure C

‐ 8, t o

m ore than t w

both FOEX a

d according

)

. The OB70

cs.

5 metrics (F A

ues of 8.8% /

with the TK

h ibit higher F

nd TKE com b

o 0.63 with C

o ther spatial

10 t istics for th

f or CAPTEX

EX3 NoPiG E

s tics for the C

g model ha s

u sion algori t

2 /BOTT) an d

r combinati o

P PM (9.6%)

c

, the ACM2

o p right). B o

w ice that of t

a nd NMSE, t

to the FB a n

vertical dif f

A 2/FA5, Fig u

/ 17.1% and

E options h a

F A5 percent

b inations yi e

C MAQ havin g

and global s e CAMx se n

Release 3.

E xperiment s

C AMx NoPi G

s the, respe c

t hm that ha s

d 3.6% (AC M

o n was OB7 0

have the hi g

and TKE ve r

o th OB70 sc e

t he other K z

he ACM2 v e

n d KSP metri

f usion algori

u re C

‐ 9, top)

,

8.2%/16.3 %

a ving slightl y

ages than t h

e ld the best

g slightly hi g

s tatistical c a n sitivity test s

s

G sensitivity

c tively, lowe

s the best s c

M 2/PPM). T h

0 /BOTT wit h

g hest (wors t

r tical diffusi o

e narios yiel d

z /advection s

e rtical diffus i

cs followed

thm perfor m

, the ACM2

%

. The TKE a

y higher FA2

h e TKE.

correlation

g her correla t

a tegories fo r s without u s

and contai n

st and high e

c ore was the

h e next best

h a ‐ 3.8% FO E

t ) FOEX scor e

o n schemes

d ed the poo r

s olver

i on scheme

by the TKE

m s the poor e

combinatio n

nd CMAQ

percentag e

performan c

t ion values

r the NoPiG t s ing

n the

e st

E X

e s.

r est

is

e st

n s

e s,

c e

t estsACM2 K z

the lowe

Figure C

‐

the PiG s

The final

statistics

1. T

2. C

3. T

4. A

5. C

6. A

7. O

8. O

Based o n

followed

effect o n z combinati o

st PCC corr e

‐ 8. Global m

s ubgrid

‐ scal e

panel in Fi g

orders the m

KE/PPM (1. 9

MAQ/PPM (

KE/BOTT (1.

A CM2/PPM (

MAQ/BOTT

A CM2/BOTT

O B70/PPM ( 1

O B70/BOTT (

n this analys i

closely by C

n CAMx mod o ns rank as t

e lation valu e

m odel perfo r

e puff mod u

g ure C

‐ 9 (bo t

m odel perf o

9 7)

( 1.91)

89)

1.87)

(1.83) (tied )

(1.83) (tied)

1 .67)

1.56)

i s, the TKE K

C MAQ. As n

el performa he best per f

e s of the fou

r mance stat

u le for CAP T

t tom right) d

o rmance of t

)

K z coefficien t

oted previo u

nce compa r

11 f orming. H o

r Kz combin

istics for th e

T EX Release

d isplays the

t he CAMx c o

t s is the bes t

u sly, the ve r

r ed to the c h o wever, the A

ations, with

e CAMx sen s

3.

overall RAN

o nfiguration s

t performin g

r tical diffusi o

h oice of hori A CM2 Kz co

values of 0.

s itivity test s

K statistic. T

s without Pi G

g vertical di f

o n algorith m

zontal adve c mbinations

22 and 0.3 0

s without u s

T he RANK

G as follows

f fusion appr o

m has a grea t

c tion solver s have

0

.

s ing

:

o ach

t er

s

.Figure C

‐

the PiG s

C.3.3 SP

Figure C

‐

were ru n

combina

FMS sco r

for FMS.

For the F

ACM2/P P

FAR. For

other Kz /

perform a

30.6% fo

perform s

with the

using th e

Kz optio n

In summ

perform a

spatial s t

algorith m

perform a ‐ 9. Global m

s ubgrid

‐ scal e

ATIAL PERF O

‐ 10 displays

n using the P

tion has the

r es of 36% a

F AR statistic,

P M (62.8% a

the POD m e

/ advection s

a nce at 13.9

llowed by T K

s poorest wi

ETEX spatia

e two advec t

n s.

ary, the eff e

a nce in com

t atistics co m

m s performi n

a nce. m odel perfo r

e puff mod u

O RMANCE F

the CAMx s p

P iG subgrid

‐ s

best perfo r

nd 35.6% r e

ACM2/Bot t

a nd 63% res p

e tric, the TK E

s olver comb i

%. For the T

K E/BOTT an d

th a TS valu e

l results, th e

t ion solvers f

e ct of using t

parison to t h

m pared to th e

n g similarly, r mance stat

u le for CAP T

F OR CTEX3 P

p atial mode l

s cale puff m o

r mance at 3 6

e spectively.

t has the be s

p ectively). O

E /BOTT co m

i nations (44

.

T S spatial m e

d CMAQ/B O

e of 10.2% f o

e re are muc h

f or the POD

t he CAMx s u

h e NoPiG e x

e NoPiG ex p

with the ol d

12 istics for th e

T EX Release

P IG EXPERI M

l performan

o dule. For t

6 .2%. TKE/ B

OB70 exhib

s t score (61.

O B70 exhibi t

m bination pe

. 4%). Both O

e tric, the C M

O TT(25.4% a n

o r both adv e

h smaller di f

and TS stat i

u bgrid scale

x periments.

p eriments w i

d er OB70 o p e CAMx sen s

3.

M ENTS

ce statistics

he FMS sta t

B OTT and TK

its the poor e

5%) followe

t ed the poo r

rforms subs

O B70 scenar i

M AQ/PPM e x

n d 23.3% re s

e ction solve

f ferences in

i stics comp a

puff modul e

A similar p a

i th the ACM

p tion exhibit s itivity test s

for the sen s

t istic, the C M

E/PPM follo

e st perform a

d by TKE/B O

r est perfor m

tantially be t

i os showed t

x hibits the b e

s pectively).

r combinati o

the model p

a red to diffe r

e appears to

a ttern was n o

2, CMAQ, a n

ing much p o s without u s

s itivity tests

M AQ Kz/BO T

wed closely

a nce with 2 3

O TT and

m ance with a

t ter than th e

t he poorest

e st score wi

OB70 again

o ns. Consis

p erformanc e

r ences bet w

slightly de g

o ted in the

n d TKE Kz

o orer overal l s ing

that

T T

with

3 .5%

a 72%

e

th

tent

e

w een

g rade

lFigure C

‐

the PiG s

C.3.4 G L

Figures C

two figu r

respecti v

the bigg e

combina

and

‐ 16. 9

vertical d

scenario s

Kz/adve c

left), the

combina

perform a

For the w

CMAQ a r

followed

horizont a

the best

(0.33/0. 4

The final

statistics

1. C ‐ 10. Spatial

s ubgrid

‐ scal e

L OBAL STAT I

C

‐ 11 and C

‐ 1

r es containi n

v ely, lowest

e st effect w a

tions exhibi t

9 % (OB70/P P

d iffusion sch

s yielded th e

c tion solver c

ACM2 com b

tions follow

a nce with v a

w ithin a fact o

r e very simil

by CMAQ.

a l advection

performing

4 4

– BOTT/P

panel in Fi g

orders the m

MAQ/PPM ( model perf o

e puff mod u

I STICAL PER

2 displays t h

n g the statis t

and highest

a s the TKE a n

t significantl

P M).With t h

emes perfo r

e poorest sc o

c onfigurati o

b inations h a

with value s

a lues of 1.1 8

o r of 2 and 5

ar for FA2, b

There is ess

solvers. A c

vertical diff u

PM)ACM2 h

g ure C

‐ 12 (b o

m odel perf o

( 1.86) o rmance st a

u le (PiG).

FORMANC E

h e global st a

t ical metric s

score. For t

n d CMAQ al g

y poorer F O

h e NMSE sta t

r ms best (3 8

o res with e r

o ns (111

– 1 1

a ve the best

s 0.82/0.83 (

8 /1.19 (BOT T

5 metrics (F A

b ut the TKE K

entially no d

c cording to t

u sion appro a

h as the lowe

o ttom right)

o rmance of t

13 a tistics for t

E FOR CTEX3

a tistics for t h

s where the

t he FOEX m e

g orithms wi t

O EX perform a

t istical perf o

8

– 42 pgm ‐ 3

r ror values m

1 6 pgm ‐ 3 ). F

scores with

BOTT/PPM)

T /PPM).

A 2 and FA5,

K z option cl e

d ifference in

he PCC met r

a ch (0.52/0.

st PCC valu e

displays th e

t he CAMx c o he CAMx C T

CAMX PIG S

h e CAMx No

best perfor m

e tric, the ve r

t h scores n e

a nce with v a

o rmance m e

) (Figure C

‐ 1

m ore than t w

or fractiona

0.58/0.59 ( B

. OB70 agai

Figure C

‐ 12

,

e arly perfor m

the PCC st a

r ic (Figure C

59

– BOTT/ P

e s with scor e

e overall RA N

o nfiguration s T EX3 sensiti v

S ENSITIVIT Y

PiG sensitiv i

m ing model

r tical diffusi o

e ar zero. Th e

a lues of

‐ 13.

e tric, the AC M

1 1, top right )

w ice that of t

l bias (Figur e

B OTT/PPM)

.

n has the p o

, top), ACM 2

m s best for t

a tistic using t

‐ 11, bottom

P PM) follow

e s 0.17

– 0. 2

N K statistic.

s with PiG a s v ity tests us

Y TESTS

i ty tests wit h

has the,

o n algorith m

e OB70

6% (OB70/ B

M 2 and TKE

)

. Both OB7

t he other

e C

‐ 11, bott o

. TKE Kz

o orest FB

2

, TKE, and

t he FA5 me t

t he two

right), CM A

ed by TKE

2 3 (BOTT/PP

The RANK

s follows: ing

h the

m has

B OTT)

0

o m

t ric,

A Q is

M).2. T

3. C

4. T

5. A

6. A

7. O

8. O

Based o n

approac h

diffusion

horizont a

Figure C

‐

the PiG s KE/PPM (1. 8

MAQ/BOTT

KE/BOTT (1.

A CM2/BOTT

A CM2/PPM (

O B70/PPM ( 1

O B70/BOTT (

n this analys i

h followed c

algorithm h

a l advection

‐ 11. Global

s ubgrid

‐ scal e 8 3)

(1.81)

74)

(1.69)

1.68)

1 .26)

1.25)

i s, the CMA Q

losely by TK

h as a greate r

solvers.

model perf o

e puff mod u Q Kz coeffici

E. Consiste

r effect on C

o rmance st a

u le.

14 ents are th e

nt with the

C AMx model

a tistics for t h e best perfo r

NoPiG expe

performan c

h e CAMx C T r ming vertic a

riments, th e

c e compare d

T EX3 sensiti v a l diffusion

e vertical

d to the cho i

v ity tests us i i ce of

i ngFigure C

‐

the PiG s

C.3.4.1 E

The effe c

experim e

model p e

vertical m

model p e

PiG.

The spat

PiG mod u

11% to

‐ 3

versus N o

(degrad e

Table C

‐ 2

configur a

advectio

that are f ‐ 12. Global

s ubgrid

‐ scal e

E FFECT OF P

c t of using t h

e nts for CA M

e rformance

m ixing and h

e rformance

ial perform a

u le is invok e

3 7% (

‐ 0.03 t o

o PiG modul e

e s) the NMS E

2 summariz e

a tions with a

n configura t

f rom ‐ 3.9% t model perf o

e puff mod u

P IG ON MO D

h e PiG mod u

M x; use of t h

and the ran

h orizontal a d

without the

a nce statisti c

e d. For the g

o ‐ 0.13 poin

e increases (

E metrics fo r

e s the RANK

a nd without

t ion, using t h

t o ‐ 8.5% lo w o rmance st a

u le.

D EL PERFOR M

u le versus N o

h e subgrid

‐ s c

kings of the

d vection ap p

PiG is perf o

c s are some t

g lobal statis t

ts) when th e

( degrades) t

r all model c

model perf o

the PiG mo

h e PiG mod u

w er than wh e

15 a tistics for t h

M ANCE

o PiG results

c ale PiG mo d

CAMx mod e

p roaches. In

o rming sligh t

t imes impro

t ics, the PC C

e PiG modul

he FB metri c

c onfiguratio n

o rmance st a

dule. For e a

u le always r e

e n the PiG m h e CAMx C T

in similar r e

d ule has ver y

e l performa n

general, it a

t ly better th a

ved and so m

C performan c

e is invoked

c by 5 to 18

n s.

a tistic for th e

a ch model v e

e sults in slig h

m odule is no t T EX3 sensiti v

e sults as see

y little effec t

n ce using th

a ppears tha t

a n its perfo r

m etimes de g

c e statistic i s

. Similarly,

percent an d

e different C

e rtical diffu s

h tly lower R

t used. v ity tests us i

n in the ET E

t on the CA M

e alternativ e

t the CAMx

r mance usin

g raded whe n

s degraded b

use of the P

d also increa

C AMx model

s ion/horizo n

ANK statisti c i ng

E X

M x

e

g the

n the

b y ‐

iG

ses

n tal

c s16 Table C

‐ 2. CTEX3 CAMx RANK model performance statistic and model rankings for different

model Kz/advection solver configurations with and without using the PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff

model.

Model

Configuration Without PiG Module With PiG Module PiG

‐ NoPiG

RANK Model

Ranking RANK Model

Ranking Δ RANK Percent

OB70/BOTT 1.56 8 1.25 8

‐ 0.41

‐ 26.4%

OB70/PPM 1.67 7 1.26 7

‐ 0.41

‐ 24.5%

TKE/BOT T 1.89 3 1.74 4

‐ 0.15

‐ 8.0%

TKE/PPM 1.97 1 1.83 2

‐ 0.14

‐ 7.1%

ACM2/BOT T 1.83 6 a 1.69 5

‐ 0.14

‐ 7.6%

ACM2/PPM 1.87 4 1.68 6

‐ 0.19

‐ 10.1%

CMAQ/BOTT 1.83 5 a 1.81 3

‐ 0.02

‐ 1.0%

CMAQ/PPM 1.91 2 1.86 1

‐ 0.05

‐ 2.6%

a tied

C.3.5 SPATIAL PERFORMANCE FOR CTEX5 NOPIG EXPERIMENTS

Spatial performance for CTEX5 and the NoPiG CAMx sensitivities posed a slightly more difficult

challenge to interpret due to similarities amongst the Kz/advection solver options for the FMS

metric (Figure C

‐ 13). The range of difference for the FMS between the minimum and maximum

for all of the eight combinations was less than 2.1%, with all in the range of 22% to 24%. This

would indicate that each of the model configurations performs similarly across all

concentration ranges. However, in the extended spatial statistics of FAR, POD, and TS, greater

differentiation in model spatial performance metrics are seen. For example, for POD and TS,

the CMAQ Kz combinations perform best of all of the vertical diffusion options, and have

POD/TS statistics that are nearly twice as good as the OB70 diffusion combinations with POD/TS

values of ~60%/~22% for CMAQ versus ~33%/~10% for OB70 diffusion algorithm options. Since

these statistics are valid for concentration ranges above the 100 pg m ‐ 3 concentration level,

similarity in model performance for the FMS metric is likely due to better performance of OB70

and ACM2 at levels below the threshold concentration used for the FAR, POD and TS statistics.

Above the concentration threshold spatial performance for OB70 and ACM2 lags behind that of

the TKE and CMAQ, indicating that the TKE and CMAQ Kz options perform better across all

concentration ranges compared to similar performance at the lower concentration levels below

the threshold. Overall, it appears that the CMAQ Kz option yields the best performance of the

diffusion options when examining the performance across all of the spatial metrics.Figure C

‐

without

C.3.6 Gl o

Figures C

for the s t

highest s

other (1 %

slightly a

The NM S

options,

OB70 or

followed

for OB7 0

CMAQ a n ‐ 13. Spatial

using the Pi

o bal Statist i

C

‐ 14 and C

‐ 1

t atistical m e

s core. For t h

%

‐ 5%), wit h

cross the A C

S E, FB, and P

with the TK E

ACM2. For

by the TKE

0 and ACM2.

n d TKE perf o model perf o

G subgrid

‐ s c

cal Perfor m

5 displays t h

e trics with t h

h e FOEX me t

h the best p e

C M2 and C M

P CC metrics p

E and CMA Q

NMSE, the C

combinatio n

A similar r e

o rming signi f o rmance st a

c ale puff m o

m ance for CT

h e global st a

h e best perf o

t ric, all of th

e rformance

M AQ options

p rovide cle a

Q options yi e

C MAQ com b

n s with 12.6

e lationship i

f icantly bet t

17 a tistics for t

o dule (NoPi G

EX5 NoPiG E

a tistics for t h

o rming mod

e Kz/advect i

coming fro m

.

a r differenti a

e lding signifi c

b inations ha v

– 13.6 pg m

s found wit h

t er than eith he CAMx C T

G ).

E xperiment s

h e CAMx No

el has the, r

i on solver o p

m OB70 and

a tion in perf o

c antly bett e

v e the best s

m ‐ 3

. NMSE v a

h the FB an d

er ACM2 or T EX5 sensiti v

s

PiG CTEX5 s

espectively,

p tions are w

TKE option s

o rmance ac r

e r performa n

s cores with 9

a lues are ne

d PCC metric

OB70. v ity tests

ensitivity te s

lowest and

w ithin 4% of e

s and degra d

r oss the Kz

n ce than eit h

9 .3

– 9.4 pg

arly double

s, with the s ts

e ach

d ing

h er

m ‐ 3

, thatFigure C

‐

the PiG s

The final

statistics

follows:

1. C

2. C

3. T

4. T

5. A

6. A

7. O

8. O

As with C

mixing a p

in the C A

RANK m e

greater),

Similarly

, with ess e

CTEX5. A

CTEX5. ‐ 14. Global

s ubgrid

‐ scal e

panel in Fi g

orders the m

MAQ/PPM (

MAQ/BOTT

KE/PPM (1. 7

KE/BOTT (1.

A CM2/BOTT

A CM2/PPM (

O B70/PPM ( 1

O B70/BOTT (

C TEX3, for t h

p proach in C

A Mx CTEX3 a

e tric. Spatia

thus FMS c o

, the PCC m e

e ntially no c o

A dditionall y model perf o

e puff mod u

g ure C

‐ 15 (b o

m odel perf o

( 1.92) (tied)

(1.92) (tied )

7 3)

71)

(1.50)

1.48)

1 .34)

1.33)

h e CTEX5 ex p

C AMx based

a nd CTEX5 N

l performa n

o ntributes l e

e tric is muc h

o ntribution

y

, the KSP sc o o rmance st a

u le.

o ttom right)

o rmance of t

)

p eriment th e

on both th e

oPiG sensiti

n ce for CTEX 3

e ss to the R A

h more vari a

of PCC to th

o res compri s

18 a tistics for t h

displays th e

t he CTEX5 C A

e CMAQ Kz a

e spatial and

vity test pe r

3 was signif i

A NK statisti c

a ble across t h

e RANK sco r

s e a much g h e CAMx C T

e overall RA N

A Mx config u

a lgorithm is

global stati

r formance i s

i cantly bett e

c al metric fo

h e Kz optio n

r e for OB70

reater porti o T EX5 sensiti v

N K statistic.

u rations wit h

the best pe

stical analy s

s the compo s

e r than for C

r CTEX5 co m

n s with CTE X

and ACM2 K

o n of the R A v ity tests us i

The RANK

h out PiG as

rforming ve

s es. What d i

s ition of the

TEX5 (10%

‐

m pared to C T

X 5 experime n

K z options i n

A NK scores f o i ng

rtical

i ffers

‐ 15%

T EX3.

n t,

n

o rFigure C

‐

the PiG s

C.3.7 SP

As with t

the PiG C

similariti

range of

combina

degrada t

Examina t

compar e

across t h

both of t

the othe

option ( T

Consiste n

across t h

determi n

use of th ‐ 15. Global

s ubgrid

‐ scal e

ATIAL PERF O

t he CTEX5 N o

C AMx sensit i

es amongst

difference f

tions was le

t ion across t

t ion of the e

e d to the No P

h e various K z

hese metric

r Kz options

T KE)).

n t with resu

h e majority o

n ed by the u

e subgrid s c model perf o

e puff mod u

O RMANCE F

o PiG experi m

i vities pose d

the Kz/adv e

f or the FMS b

ss than 2%,

he board fr o

e xtended sp a

P iG equival e

z /advection

s, the CMA Q

(5%

‐ 10% b

lts from the

o f the spatia

ser’s selecti

c ale PiG mo d o rmance st a

u le for CAP T

F OR CTEX5 P

m ents, inter

d a slightly m

e ction solve r

b etween th e

with all in t h

o m the corr e

a tial statisti c

e nt tests. G r

solver com b

Q Kz combin

b etter for P O

NoPiG scen

l metrics. T

on of the Kz

d ule in CAM x

19 a tistics for t h

T EX Release

P IG EXPERI M

pretation o f

m ore difficul t

r options fo r

e minimum a

h e range of 2

e sponding N

c s reveals a s

r eater differ

b inations, es

ations clear l

O D and 2%

‐

arios, the C M

he largest d i

option tha n

x

. h e CAMx se n

5 (NoPiG).

M ENTS

f the spatial

t challenge t

r the FMS m e

a nd maxim u

2 1.5%

‐ 23. 3

N oPiG experi

s imilar patt e

ences in pe r

pecially for t

l y yield bett e

5% for TS t h

M AQ Kz opt

i fference in

n either the n sitivity tes t

performan c

t o interpret d

e tric (Figure

u m for all of

3 %, noting a

ments (0.2 %

e rn in perfo r

r formance a

t he POD an d

e r spatial p e

h an the sec o

ion appears

spatial perf o

choice of a d t s without u

c e for CTEX5

d ue to

C

‐ 16). The

the eight

slight

%

‐ 3.1%).

r mance

re observed

d TS metrics

e rformance t

o nd best Kz

to perform

o rmance is

d vection sol v u sing

for

. For

t han

best

v er orFigure C

‐

the PiG s

C.3.8 Gl o

Figures C

module w

highest s

each oth

degradi n

equivale n

For NMS

CMAQ K z

with val u

for KSP, f

scores. O ‐ 16 Spatial m

s ubgrid

‐ scal e

o bal Statist i

C

‐ 17 and C

‐ 1

w ith statisti c

s core. For t h

er (

‐ 1.2%

‐ 4

n g slightly ac

n t NoPiG sc e

E and KSP, t

z option has

u es of 14.2

–

f ollowed by

O B70 consis t m odel perf o

e puff mod u

cal Perfor m

8 displays t h

c al metrics f o

h e FOEX me t

4 .7%), with t

ross the AC M

e narios.

he CMAQ a n

the best N M

– 15.8 pg m ‐ 3

CMAQ/PP M

t ently score d o rmance sta

u le (PiG).

m ance for C A

h e global st a

o r the best p

t ric, all of th

he best per f

M 2 and CM A

n d TKE opti o

M SE values w

3 (PPM/BOT T

M

. All of the

d the poore s

20 tistics for t h

A Mx CTEX5 P

a tistics for t h

p erforming m

e Kz/advect i

f ormance c o

A Q options,

o ns perform

w ith 9.9

– 1 0

T ). The TKE /

Kz options s

s t across all h e CAMx CT E

P iG Experim e

h e CAMx se n

m odel has t h

i on solver o p

o ming from O

which is lar g

better than

0 .8 pg m ‐ 3 ( P

/ PPM combi

s ave OB70 h

of the glob a E X5 sensiti v

e nts

n sitivity test s

h e, respecti v

p tions are w

O B70 and T K

g ely consist e

either OB7 0

P PM/BOTT),

nation had t

ad very sim i

a l statistical v ity tests usi

s using the P

v ely, lowest

w ithin 5%

‐ 6 %

K E options a

e nt with the

0 or ACM2.

followed by

t he best sco

i lar FB and F

metrics. ng

P iG

and

% of

nd

The

TKE

res

A2/5Figure C

‐ subgrid

‐ s

The final

RANK st a

module a

1. C

2. C

3. T

4. T

5. A

6. A

7. O

8. O

Consiste n

for verti c

and glob

model p e ‐ 17. Global

s cale puff m

panel in Fi g

a tistics orde r

a s follows:

MAQ/BOTT

MAQ/PPM (

KE/PPM (1. 6

KE/BOTT (1.

A CM2/BOTT

A CM2/PPM (

O B70/PPM ( 1

O B70/BOTT (

n t with the N

c al mixing is

al statistical

e rformance model perf o

m odule for C A

g ure C

‐ 17 (b o

r s the mode

(1.95)

( 1.92)

6 7)

65)

(1.58)

1.56)

1 .35)

1.34)

N oPiG scen a

the best pe r

analyses a n

compared t o o rmance st a

A PTEX Rele a

o ttom right)

l performan

a rios for CTE

r forming ve r

n d the choic e

o vertical di f

21 a tistics for t h

a se 5.

displays th e

ce of the C A

X5, CAMx p e

r tical diffusi o

e of advecti o

f fusion. h e CAMx se n

e overall RA N

A Mx configu

e rformance

o n algorith m

o n solver ha n sitivity tes t

N K statistic a

rations usin g

using the C M

m overall for

s a much s m t s using the

a l metric. T h

g the PiG

M AQ Kz opt

both the s p

m aller effect PiG

h e

ion

p atial

onFigure C

‐ subgrid

‐ s

C.3.8.1 E

Similar t o

or not h a

model p e

options.

performi

The spat

PiG mod u

of the fo

PiG mod u

‐ 3.1% to

diffusion

no chan g ‐ 18. Global

s cale puff m

E FFECT OF P

o the result s

a s very little

e rformance

In general,

ng slightly b

ial perform a

u le is invok e

ur spatial st a

u le is invok e

‐ 0.2% for F M

/advection s

g e for POD. model perf o

m odule for C A

P IG ON MO D

s from the E T

effect on th

using the al t

it appears t h

b etter than i t

a nce statisti c

e d. Table C

‐ 3

a tistics, FM S

e d is noted u

M S and fro m

s olver com b o rmance st a

A PTEX Rele a

D EL PERFOR M

T EX and CT E

e CAMx mo

t ernative ve

h at the CA M

t s performa

c s are some t

3 examines t

S and POD. S

u sing the OB

m ‐ 11.1% to 0

b inations ex p

22 a tistics for t h

a se 5 (PiG).

M ANCE FO R

E X3 experim e

del perform

rtical mixin g

M x model pe r

nce using th

t imes impro

t he effect o f

S light degra d

70, TKE, an d

0 % for POD)

p erienced a 0 h e CAMx se n

R CTEX5

e nts for CA M

ance and th

g and horizo

r formance w

e PiG.

ved and so m

f PiG treat m

d ation of sp

d ACM2 Kz d

. However,

0 .2% to 0.5 % n sitivity tes t

M x, whethe r

e rankings o

ntal advecti

w ithout the P

m etimes de g

m ent of the t r

atial perfor m

d iffusion co m

CAMX usin g

% improve m t s using the

r the PiG is u

o f the CAMx

on solver

P iG is

g raded whe n

r acer using t

m ance whe n

m binations ( f

g the CMAQ

m ent for FM S PiG

sed

n the

t wo

n the

f rom

Kz

S and23 Table C

‐ 3. CAMx FMS and POD spatial performance statistic and model rankings for different

model configurations with and without using the PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff model for CAPTEX

Release 5.

Model

Configuration Without PiG Module With PiG Module NoPiG

‐ PiG

FMS POD FMS POD Δ FMS Δ POD

OB70/BOTT 23.48 33.33 21.54 27.78

‐ 1.9%

‐ 5.6%

OB70/PPM 24.62 33.33 22.05 33.33

‐ 2.6% 0%

TKE/BOT T 23.85 55.56 22.83 55.56

‐ 1.0% 0%

TKE/PPM 24.6 55.56 21.49 50

‐ 3.1%

‐ 5.6%

ACM2/BOT T 23.53 44.44 23.26 33.33

‐ 0.3%

‐ 11.1%

ACM2/PPM 23.31 44.44 23.08 44.44

‐ 0.2% 0%

CMAQ/BOTT 22.48 61.11 22.66 61.11 0.2% 0%

CMAQ/PPM 22.66 61.11 23.2 61.11 0.5% 0%

Table C

‐ 4 summarizes the RANK model performance statistic for the different CAMx model

configurations with and without using the PiG module. The results for the global statistics are

somewhat varied across the Kz/advection solver configurations. OB70, ACM2, and CMAQ/BOTT

showed slight improvements in their RANK score when using the PiG module (improvements

ranged from 0.7% to 5.4%). However, the TKE combinations experienced performance

degradations with changes ranging from

‐ 3.5% to 4.0%.

Table C

‐ 4. CAMx RANK model performance statistic and model rankings for different model

configurations with and without using the PiG subgrid

‐ scale puff model for CAPTEX Release 5.

Model

Configuration Without PiG Module With PiG Module PiG

‐ NoPiG

RANK Model

Ranking RANK Model

Ranking Δ RANK Percent

OB70/BOTT 8 1.33 1.34 8 +0.01 +0.7%

OB70/PPM 7 1.34 1.35 7 +0.01 +0.7%

TKE/BOT T 4 1.71 1.65 4

‐ 0.06

‐ 3.5%

TKE/PPM 3 1.73 1.67 3

‐ 0.07

‐ 4.0%

ACM2/BOT T 5 1.50 1.58 5 +0.08 +5.0%

ACM2/PPM 6 1.48 1.56 6 +0.08 +5.4%

CMAQ/BOTT 1 a 1.92 1.95 1 +0.03 +1.5%

CMAQ/PPM 2 a 1.92 1.92 2 0.0 0.0%

a tied

In general, it is difficult to discern a consistent pattern of performance across the Kz/advection

solver combinations when using the CAMx subgrid scale PiG module or not. There appears to

be only modest benefit in cases where performance improvement is detected and only modest

degradation in model performance when the PiG module causes a worsening of model

performance. The CAMx PiG module was originally developed primarily to treat the near

‐

source chemistry of large point source plumes that can be quite different from its surrounding

environment. The decision to employ the CAMx puff module relates not so much in

improvement advection and diffusion performance, but rather whether or not it is appropriate

to allow emissions of ozone and secondary PM 2.5 precursors from large point sources to be

instantaneously mixed into the grid and what impact this would have on local chemical

reactions.C.4 CO M

The mod

CAMx a n

Release 3

C.4.1 SP

The perf o

perform a

displays t

field exp e

models f

FLEXPAR

24.1%.

Figure C

‐

models a

Figure C

‐

best per f

performi

HYSPLIT e

respecti v M PARISON O

el perform a

n d CALGRID)

3 tracer exp e

ATIAL ANA L

o rmance of

a nce statics

t he FMS sp a

e riment. T h

or the FMS s

T (32.1%). C

‐ 19. Figure o

a nd CAPTEX

‐ 20 displays

f orming mo d

ng models u

e xhibited si m

v ely. CALGR O F SIX LRT D

a nce of six L R

are evaluat

e riment.

L YSIS OF M O

the six LRT d

that were d

a tial perfor m

h e CAMx (39

s tatistic. Th

C ALGRID ha s

o f Merit in S

Release 3.

the FAR per

d el using th e

u sing the FA

m ilar perfor m

ID had the w ISPERSION M

R T dispersio n

ed using co m

O DEL PERFO

d ispersion m

efined in Se c

m ance metri c

.4%) and SC

ey are follo w

s the poores

S pace (FMS )

formance m

e FAR statist

R was CAM x

m ance for t h

w orst FAR s c

24 M ODELING

n models (C A

m mon MM 5

RMANCE

m odels using

c tion 2.4 ar e

c s for the si x

IPUFF (35.2 %

w ed by HYS P

t score for t

) statistical p

m etric for th e

ics with a s c

x (64.8%) an d

h e FAR met r

c ore with a v USING CAP T

A LPUFF, SCI

5 meteorolo g

the four sp a

e discussed i

x LRT model s

% ) models a

P LIT (33.9%)

, he FMS stat

p erformanc e

e six LRT mo

c ore of 54.1 %

d SCIPUFF ( 7

r ic with valu e

v alue of 91. 7 T EX RELEAS E

PUFF, HYSP L

g ical inputs a

a tial analysi s

i n this secti o

s and the C T

re the two b

, CALPUFF ( 3

istics with a

e metric for

dels. FLEXP A

%

. The next

7 1.2%). CA L

e s of 74.3%

7 %. E 3

L IT, FLEXPA R

a nd the CA P

s model

o n. Figure C

‐

T EX3 tracer s

b est perfor m

3 2.2%), and

value of on

the six LRT

A RT was th e

two best

L PUFF and

and 79.3% R T,

P TEX

‐ 19

s tudy

m ing

ly

eFigure C

‐

CAPTEX R

Results f o

the best

followed

were in t

Figure C

‐

models a

Results f o

the high e ‐ 20. False A

R elease 3.

o r the Prob a

performing

closely by F

t he middle, a

‐ 21. Proba b

a nd CAPTEX

o r the TS m e

e st TS statis t larm Rate ( F

a bility of De t

model usin g

F LEXPART w i

a nd CALPUF

b ility of Det e

Release 3.

e tric and th e

t ics with a s c F AR) statisti

t ection (PO D

g the POD p e

i th a score o

F and CALG R

e ction (POD )

e six LRT mo

c ore with a v

25 cal perfor m

D ) metric ar e

e rformance

o f 47.2%. S C

R ID had the

) statistical p

dels are pre

v alue of 30. 4 m ance metri c

e presented

statistic wit

C IPUFF (41. 7

worst POD s

p erformanc e

sented in Fi g

4 % and was c for the six

in Figure C

‐ 2

h a value of

7 %) and HYS P

s core with a

e metric for

g ure C

‐ 22. F

followed cl o LRT models

2 1. CAMx w

52.6%. It is

P LIT (36.1% )

value of 25 %

the six LRT

F LEXPART h a

o sely by CA M and

w as

)

%

.

a d

M x(26.8%).

CALGRI D

Figure C

‐

CAPTEX R

Overall s

having t h

perform a

their spa

scores in

perform a

C.4.2 G L

Eight glo

using th e

NMSE, P C

Figure C

‐

best FO E

using th e

poorest F SCIPUFF (2 0

D exhibited t h

‐ 22. Threat

R elease 3.

patial perfo

h e best perf o

a nce in the F

tial perfor m

all of the f o

a nce across

L OBAL ANA L

bal statistic a

e ETEX data b

C C, FB, KS a n

‐ 23 displays

E X score wit h

e FOEX metr

F OEX score w 0 .6%), HYSP

h e poorest T

Score (TS) s

rmance wa s

o rmance fo r

F AR and TS c

m ance for th e

o ur spatial p e

all four spa t

L YSIS OF M O

a l analysis m

b ase that ar

n d RANK st a

the FOEX p e

h a value of 2

ic is CAMx ( 9

w ith 20.6%. LIT (15.1%),

T S performa

tatistical p e

s relatively e

r the FMS a n

c ategories. C

e CTEX3 exp e

e rformance

t ial metrics.

O DEL PERFO R

m etrics are u s

e described

a tistical met r

e rformance m

2 .0% that is

9 .6%) that i s

26 and CALPU F

nce with a s

e rformance m

qual betwe e

n d POD stati s

C ALPUFF, S C

e riment, wi t

metrics. C A

R MANCE

s ed to eval u

in Section 2

r ics.

m etrics for t

closest to z e

s followed b y F F (14.1%) w

core of 6.7 %

m etric for t h

e n FLEXPAR T

s tics and FL E

C IPUFF, and

t h SCIPUFF s

A LGRID exhi b

u ate the five

2 .4 and cons i

t he six LRT m

e ro. The se c

y SCIPUFF ( 1 w ere in the m

%

.

h e six LRT m

T and CAMx

,

E XPART havi

HYSPLIT we r

s howing ma r

b ited the po

LRT model p

i st of the F O

m odels. HY S

c ond best p e

1 1.5%). CAL G m iddle, and

m odels and

, with CAM x

ng better

r e compara b

r ginally bett e

orest

p erformanc e

O EX, FA2, FA 5

S PLIT has th e

e rforming m

G RID has th e x

b le in

e r

e

5

,

e

odel

eFigure C

‐

models a

FA2 and

and FA5

model f o

8.5%). C

having a

– 4.6%). ‐ 23. Factor o

a nd CAPTEX

FA5 scores a

scores with

o r the FA α s t

ALPUFF and

lower FA2 ( 0 o f Exceeda n

Release 3.

a re present e

values of 6. 6

t atistics is F L

CALGRID fl i

0 .8%) and a n ce (FOEX) s t

e d in Figure C

6 %

‐ 6.7% ( F

L EXPART (5. 3

i p positions

higher FA5

27 t atistical p e

C

. ‐ 24. CAM x

F A2) and 15 %

3 % and 12.2 %

in FA2 and F

(8.2%) com p e rformance m

x and SCIPU

% (FA5). Th e

% ) followed

F A5 for the f

p ared to CA L m etric for t h

FF have nea

e third best p

by HYSPLIT

f inal positio n

L GRID (FA2

– h e six LRT

rly identical

p erforming

(4.5% and

n

, with CALP

– 1.05% and FA2

UFF

FA5Figure C

‐

LRT mo d

The scor e

models a

the pred

model r e

with a sc

The wor s

Figure C

‐

LRT mo d ‐ 24. Factor o

d els and CA P

e s for the N o

a re given in F

icted and o b

e ceiving a 0. 0

ore of 21.4 p

s t performi n

‐ 25. Norma

d els for CAP T o f 2 (FA2) a n

P TEX Releas e

o rmalized M

F igure C

‐ 25.

b served trac

0 score. FL E

p g m ‐ 3 follo w

n g LRT mode

l ized Mean S

T EX Release n d Factor o f

e 3.

M ean Square

The NMSE

er concentr a

E XPART is th e

w ed closely b

l according t

S quare Err o

3. Values a

28 f 5 (FA5) sta t

d Error (N M

provides an

a tions paire d

e best perf o

b y CAMx (3 8

t o the NMS E

o r (NMSE) st a

a re express e t istical perf o

M SE) statistic

indication o

d by time a n

o rming mod e

8 .9 pg m ‐ 3 ) a

E metric is H

a tistical pe r

e d in pg m ‐ 3

. o rmance m e

al metrics f o

o f the devia t

n d location w

e l using the N

nd CALPUF F

YSPLIT (130

r formance m e tric for the

o r the six LR T

t ions betwe e

w ith a perfe c

N MSE metri

F (40.9 pg m

‐

.5 pg m ‐ 3 ).

m etric for th e six

T

e n

c t

c

‐ 3).

e sixThe PCC

positive c

are CAM

CALGRI D

observat

Figure C

‐

LRT mo d

Figure C

‐

FB, whic h

closest t o

(1.05) all

metric. C

respecti v values for t h

c orrelation c

x (0.63) and

D (0.23), and

ions is HYS P

‐ 26. Pearso n

d els and CA P

‐ 27 displays

h suggests a

o zero are F L

have simila

C ALGRID an d

v ely. h e six LRT m

c oefficients.

SCIPUFF (0

.

FLEXPART ( 0

P LTI (

‐ 0.1), i n

n ’s Correlat i

P TEX Releas e

the FB para m

n overesti m

L EXPART wi t

r FB values a

d HYSPLIT h a odels are s h

The two b e

. 56). The m i

0 .19). The m

n dicating a w

i on Coeffici e

e 3.

m eter for t h

m ation tende

t h a FB valu e

a re the sec o

a ve the wor s

29 h own in Figu

e st models a

i ddle group

m odel with t

w eak negati v

e nt (PCC) st a

h e six LRT m o

ncy. The b e

e of 0.68. C A

o nd best per f

s t FB scores re C

‐ 26. All

a ccording to

of models c o

t he least cor

v e correlatio

a tistical per f

o dels. All si x

e st performi n

A Mx (1.00), S

f orming gro u

with values models but

the PCC sta t

o nsists of C A

relation wit h

n with obse

f ormance m

x models ex h

n g model w i

S CIPUFF (1. 0

u p of mode l

of 1.47 and HYSPLIT ha v

t istical met r

A LPUFF (0.4 )

h the

rved data.

m etric for th e

h ibit a positi

i th an FB val

0 4) and CAL P

l s using the F

1.56 v e

r ic

)

,

e six

ve

ue

P UFF

F BFigure C

‐

CAPTEX R

The KS p a

KS para m

concent r

CALGRI D

Figure C

‐

six LRT m ‐ 27. Fractio n

R elease 3.

a rameters f o

m eter, whic h

r ation distri b

D are essenti a

‐ 28. Kolmo g

m odels for C A n al Bias(FB)

o r the six L R

h indicates t h

b utions, foll o

a lly tied wit h

g orov

– Smi r

A PTEX Rele a statistical p

R T models ar

h e best mat c

o wed by CA M

h the worst

r nov Param e

a se 3.

30 p erformanc e

e shown in F

c h between

M x (38%) a n

KS paramet e

e ter (KSP) s t e metric for

F igure C

‐ 28.

the predict e

n d then SCIP

e r with a va l

t atistical pe the six LRT

HYSPLIT (3

e d and obse

UFF (43%).

l ue of 58%.

rformance m models and

1%) has the

rved tracer

FLEXPART a

m etrics for t best

nd

t heThe RAN

perform a

(PCC or R

RANK m e

lists the R

model u s

of mode l

performi

scores r e

distribut i

FLEXPAR

and 1.43

the reve r

Figure C

‐ K statistical

a nce metric

R ), bias (FB),

e trics range s

R ANK mode

s ing the RA N

l performan c

ng model a c

e latively wel

i on and cor r

T and CALP U

respectivel y

r se is true f o

‐ 29. RANK s performan c

that equall y

spatial anal

s from 0.0 t o

l performan

N K metric wi

c e (correlati

c cording to t

l across all o

r elation met

U FF are nea r

y

. FLEXPAR T

o r the correl a

s tatistical p e c e metric wa

y ranks the c

ysis (FMS) a

o 4.0 with a p

ce statistics

th a value o f

on, bias, sp a

t he RANK m e

o f the four m

rics compar e

r ly even in t e

T scores bet t

a tion (R 2 ) m

e rformance

31 s proposed

ombination

nd unpaire d

p erfect mo d

for the six L

f 1.91. Not e

a tial and cu m

e tric is SCIP U

m etrics, with

e d to CAMx

,

e rms of thei

t er than CA L

etric.

metric for t h by Draxler ( 2

of perform a

d distributio n

d el receiving

L RT models.

e that CAMx

m ulative dis t

U FF with a s

slightly low e

, contributi n

r performa n

L PUFF with t

h e six LRT m 2 001) as a s i

a nce metric s

n comparis o

a score of 4

CAMx is th e

scores high

t ribution). T

core of 1.7 1

e r scores in

n g to its sec o

n ce with RA N

t he bias (FB)

m odels and C i ngle model

s for correla t

o ns (KS). Th e

4 .0. Figure C

e highest ra n

in all four a

T he next be s

1

. SCIPUFF

cumulative

o nd rank.

N K values of

metric, wh e

C APTEX Rel e t ion

e

C

‐ 29

n ked

reas

s t

1.44

e reas

e ase 3.32 C.4.2.1 SUMMARY OF LRT MODEL RANKINGS FOR CTEX3 USING STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE

MEASURES

Table C

‐ 5 summarizes the rankings between the six LRT models for the 11 performance

statistics analyzed. Depending on the statistical metric, three different models were ranked as

the best performing model for a particular statistic with CAMx being ranked first more than the

other models (46%) and FLEXPART ranked first second most (36%). CALGRID was consistently

ranked the worst performing model being the poorest performing model for 6 of the 11

performance statistics.

In testing the efficacy of the RANK statistic for providing an overall ranking of model

performance we the ranking of the six LRT models using the average rank of the 11

performance statistics versus the ranking from the RANK statistical metric (Table C

‐ 5). The

average rank of model performance for the six LRT dispersion models and the CTEX3

experiment averaged across all 11 performance statistics and the comparison to the RANK

rankings was as follows:

Ranking Average of 11

Statistics RANK

1. CAMx CAMx

2. SCIPUFF SCIPUFF

3. FLEXPAR T FLEXPAR T

4. HYSPLIT CALPUFF

5. CALPUFF HYSPLIT

6. CALGRID CALGRID

For the CTEX3 experiment, the average rankings across the 11 statistics is nearly identical to the

rankings produced by the RANK integrated statistics that combines the four statistics for

correlation (PCC), bias (FB), spatial (FMS) and cumulative distribution (KS) with only HYSPLIT

and CALPUFF exchanging places as the 4 th and 5 th best performing models. CALPUFF

performance was weighted down in the average statistic rankings due to lower scores in the

FA2 and FA5 metrics compared to HYSPLIT. If not for this, the average rank across all 11 metrics

would have been the same as Draxler’s RANK score. Although this deviation did occur in the

fourth and fifth ranked positions, the RANK statistic remains a valid performance statistic for

indicating over all model performance of a LRT dispersion model. However, the analyst should

use discretion in relying too heavily upon RANK score without consideration to which

performance metrics are important measures for the particular evaluation goals. For example,

if performance goals are not concerned with a model’s ability to perform well in space and

time, then reliance upon spatial statistics such as the FMS in the composite RANK value may not

be appropriate. In the case of this evaluation, since space/time considerations are paramount

for proper LRT model performance, the RANK metric is a valuable tool to rapidly assess model

performance across a broad range of metrics being evaluated.Table C

‐ 5

Statis t

FM S

FA R

PO D

TS

FOE X

FA 2

FA 5

NM S

PCC o r

FB

KS

Avg

Ranki n

Avg. S c

RAN

Ranki n

RAN

C.5 CO M

EXPERI M

C.5.1 SP

Figure C

‐

the CTE X

two best

followed

Figure C

‐

models a 5

. Summar y

t ic 1

S CA

R FLEX

D CA

FLEX

X HY S

2 CA

5 CA

S E FLEX

r R CA

FLEX

HY S

.

n g CA

c ore 1.

K

n g CA

K 1.

M PARISON O

M ENT

ATIAL ANA L

‐ 30 displays

X 5 tracer stu

performin g

by HYSPLIT

‐ 30. Figure o

a nd CAPTEX y of model r

1 st

Mx S

PART

Mx F L

PART

S PLIT

Mx S

Mx S

PART

Mx S

PART

S PLIT

Mx S

55

Mx S

91

O F SIX LRT M

L YSIS OF M O

the FMS sp a

dy field exp e

g models for

(18.5%), C A

o f Merit in S

Release 5. anking usin g

2 nd

S CIPUFF

CAMx

L EXPART

CAMx

CAMx

S CIPUFF

S CIPUFF

CAMx

S CIPUFF

CAMx

CAMx

S CIPUFF

2.72

S CIPUFF

1.71

M ODEL MO D

O DEL PERFO

a tial analysi s

e riment. S C

the FMS st a

A LPUFF (17. 5

S pace (FMS )

33 g the statis t

3 rd

HYSPLIT

SCIPUFF

SCIPUFF

SCIPUFF

SCIPUFF

FLEXPART

FLEXPART

CALPUFF

CALPUFF

SCIPUFF

SCIPUFF

FLEXPART

3.0

FLEXPART

1.44

D ELING PER F

RMANCE

s performan c

C IPUFF (22.6 7

a tistic with n

5 %), FLEXPA R

) statistical p t ical perfor m

4 th

CALPUFF

CALPUFF

HYSPLIT

HYSPLIT

CALPUFF

HYSPLIT

HYSPLIT

SCIPUFF

CALGRID

CALPUFF

CALPUFF

HYSPLIT

4.0

CALPUFF

1.43

F ORMANCE

c e metrics f o

7 %) and CA M

n early identi c

R T (17.2), a n

p erformanc e m ance metri

5 th

FLEXP A

HYSP

CALP U

CALP U

CALG R

CALG R

CALP U

CALG R

FLEXP A

CALG R

FLEXP A

CALP U

4.2 7

HYSP

1.2 5

USING THE C

o r the six LR

M x (22.66% )

c al scores. T

n d CALGRID

e metric for cs.

6

A RT CAL G

LIT CAL G

U FF CAL G

U FF CAL G

R ID FLE X

R ID CAL P

U FF CAL G

R ID HY S

A RT HY S

R ID HY S

A RT CAL G

U FF CAL G

7 5.

LIT CAL G

5 0.

C APTEX

‐ 5

T models a n

) models ar e

T hey are

(16.1%).

the six LRT 6 th

G RID

G RID

G RID

G RID

X PART

P UFF

G RID

S PLIT

S PLIT

S PLIT

G RID

G RID

55

G RID

98

n d

e theFigure C

‐

model u s

using th e

CALPUF F

Figure C

‐

CAPTEX R

Results f o

the best

was the s

and CAL G

Figure C

‐

models a ‐ 31 displays

s ing the FA R

e FAR metri c

F had the w o

‐ 31. False A

R elease 5.

o r the Prob a

performing

s econd best

G RID.

‐ 32. Proba b

a nd CAPTEX the FAR per

R statistics w

c were HYSP

o rst (highest )

larm Rate ( F

a bility of De t

model usin g

performing

b ility of Det e

Release 5. formance m

ith a score o

LIT (72.2%) a

) FAR score s

F AR) statisti

t ection (PO D

g the POD p e

model usin g

e ction (POD )

34 m etrics. FLE X

o f 61.9%. T h

a nd CAMx ( 7

s with value s

cal perfor m

D ) metric ar e

e rformance

g POD follo w

) statistical p X PART was t

h e next two b

7 5.6%). SCI P

s of 79.7%, 8

m ance metri c

e presented

statistic wit

w ed by HYS P

p erformanc e he best (lo w

b est perfor m

P UFF, CALG R

8 4.2%, and 8

c for the six

in Figure C

‐ 3

h a value of

P LIT, FLEXP A

e metric for w est) perfor m

m ing model s

R ID, and

8 7% respecti

LRT models

3 2. SCIPUF F

72.2%. CA M

A RT, CALPUF

the six LRT m ing

s

vely.

and

F was

M x

FResults f o

with a sc

CALPUF F

respecti v

Figure C

‐

CAPTEX R

Overall, t

with CA M

the best

generall y

better s c

perform a

C.5.2 G L

Figure C

‐

best FO E

using th e

SCIPUFF

respecti v o r the TS m e

ore of 25.8 %

F and CALGR

v ely.

‐ 33. Threat

R elease 5.

t he spatial p

M x having t h

performan c

y comparabl

c ores in all f o

a nce across

L OBAL ANA L

‐ 34 displays

E X score (clo s

e FOEX metr

and FLEXPA

v ely. e tric are pre

%

. HYSPLIT (

ID closed o u

Score (TS) s

p erformanc e

h e best perf o

c e for the F A

e in their sp

o ur of the s p

all four spa t

L YSIS OF M O

the FOEX p e

s est to zero )

ic is CAMx ( 4

RT had the p sented in Fi g

( 22.7%), CA M

u t with the w

tatistical p e

e for CTEX5 w

o rmance for

A R and TS st a

atial perfor m

p atial metric

t ial metrics.

O DEL PERFO R

e rformance m

) with a valu

4 .7%) follo w

p oorest FOE

35 g ure C

‐ 33. F

M x (21.2%),

w orst (lowe s

e rformance m

w as relativel

the FMS an

a tistics. CAL

m ance for C T

s. CALGRID

R MANCE

m etrics for t

e of

‐ 2.6%.

w ed by HYSP

X scores wi t F LEXPART h a

and SCIPUF F

s t) TS values

m etric for t h

y equal bet w

d POD stati s

PUFF, SCIP U

T EX5, with S

consistentl y

t he six LRT m

The second

LIT (

‐ 9.2%) a

t h values of a d the high e

F (18.8%) fo

of 10.3% a n

h e six LRT m

w een FLEXP A

s tics and FL E

U FF, and HY S

S CIPUFF sho w

y exhibited t

m odels. CA L

best perfor m

a nd CALGRI D

20.4% and

‐ e st TS statist

llowed, and

n d 8.8%

m odels and

A RT and CA M

E XPART havi

S PLIT were

w ing margi n

t he poorest

L PUFF had t h

m ing model

D (

‐ 11.9%).

28.2% ics

M x,

ng

n ally

h eFigure C

‐

models a

The FA2

and FA5

with val u

FA2/FA5

with FA2 ‐ 34. Factor o

a nd CAPTEX

and FA5 sc o

values of 4. 9

u es of 3.5% t

values of, r e

and FA5 va o f Exceeda n

Release 5.

o res are pre s

9 % and 10. 7

t o 3.9% (FA 2

e spectively,

lues of 0% a n ce (FOEX) s t

s ented in Fi g

7 %, respecti v

2 ) and 9.3% t

3.5%/7.9% a

nd 0.9% res

36 t atistical p e

g ure C

‐ 35. H

v ely. CAMx

t o 9.4% (FA 5

a nd 2.3%/6.

pectively. e rformance m

YSPLIT has t

and SCIPUF

5 ). CALPUF F

9%. CALGR I m etric for t h

t he best FA α

F have near

F and FLEXP A

I D has the l o h e six LRT

α scores wit h

ly identical F

A RT follow w

o west FA α s c h FA2

F A α

w ith

c oresFigure C

‐

LRT mo d

The scor e

models a

with a sc

compris e

respecti v ‐ 35. Factor o

d els and CA P

e s for the N o

a re given in F

ore of 9.4 p g

e d of FLEXP A

v ely. CALGR o f 2 (FA2) a n

P TEX Releas e

o rmalized M

F igure C

‐ 36.

g m ‐ 3 follow e

A RT, HYSPLI T

ID closes ou n d Factor o f

e 5.

M ean Square

CAMx is th e

e d by SCIPU

T

, and CALP U

t with a N M

37 f 5 (FA5) sta t

d Error (N M

e best perf o

FF (14.8 pg m

U FF with val

M SE value of t istical perf o

M SE) statistic

o rming mod e

m ‐ 3 ). The m

ues of 17.0,

29.6 pg m ‐ 3

. o rmance m e

al metrics a n

e l using the N

iddle tier of

17.2, and 1 9 e tric for the

n d the six L R

N MSE metri

models are

9 .5 pg m ‐ 3 six

R T

cFigure C

‐

LRT mo d

The PCC

CALPUF F

HYSPLIT

and CAL G

correlat e

respecti v

Figure C

‐

LRT mo d

Figure C

‐

exhibit a 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5

‐ 36. Norma

d els and CA P

values for t h

F have positi v

(0.60), CAM

G RID have n

e d with the o

v ely.

‐ 37. Pearso n

d els for CAP T

‐ 38 displays

positive FB

, 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5CALPUFF/MMIF

l ized Mean S

P TEX Releas e

h e six LRT m

v e PCCs. Th

x (0.59) and

egative PCC

o bserved da

n ’s Correlat i

T EX Release

the FB para m

, which sug gSCIPUFF



## Normal i

S quare Err o

e 5. Values

odels are s h

e three bes t

SCIPUFF (0

.

scores, indi

ta. CALGRI D

i on Coeffici e

5.

m eter for t h

g ests an ove rHYSPLIT 

## i zed Mea

(P e

38 o r (NMSE) st a

are express

h own in Figu

t models ac c

. 56). FLEXP A

cating the m

D and CALP U

e nt (PCC) st a

h e six LRT m o

r estimation tHYSPLIT 

## n Squar e

e rfect = 0 )

a tistical pe r

ed in pg m ‐ 3

re C

‐ 37. All

c ording to t h

A RT has a P C

m odeled con

U FF have PC C

a tistical per f

o dels and C T

t endency, wFLEXPART 

## e Error ( N

)

r formance m

3

.

models but

h e PCC stati s

C C of 0.51. B

centrations

C values of

‐

f ormance m

T EX5. Four o

w hereas theCAMx 

## N MSE)

m etric for th e

CALGRID a n

s tical metric

B oth CALPU F

are anti

‐

0.06 and

‐ 0.

m etric for th e

o f the six m o

other two hCALGRID

e six

n d

are

F F

07,

e six

o dels

avea negati v

with a F B

indicatin

SCIPUFF

Figure C

‐

CAPTEX R

The KS p a

lowest K S

tracer c o

and CAL G

with sco r

Figure C

‐

six LRT m v e FB. The b

B score of 0. 4

g underesti m

(0.89) with a

‐ 38. Fractio n

R elease 5.

a rameters f o

S paramete r

o ncentration

G RID (38%).

r es of 55% a

‐ 39. Kolmo g

m odels and C b est perfor m

4 9 indicatin g

m ation. Ne x

a n overesti m

n al Bias (FB )

o r the six L R

r

, which indi

distributio n

CAMx follo

nd 56% res p

g orov

– Smi r

C APTEX Rel e m ing models

g overestim a

x t best is FL E

m ation bias f

) statistical p

R T models ar

cates the b e

n s accordin g

ws with a s c

p ectively.

r nov Param e

e ase 5.

39 with the FB

a tion and C A

E XPART (

‐ 0. 8

f ollowed by

p erformanc

e shown in F

e st match b e

g to the KS p a

c ore of 41% a

e ter (KSP) s t parameter c

A LPUFF wit h

8 7) with an u

HYSPLIT (0. 9

e metric fo r

F igure C

‐ 39.

e tween the p

a rameter, f o

a nd FLEXPA

t atistical pe c losest to z e

h a FB value o

u nderestim a

9 3) and CAL P

r the six LRT

HYSPLIT (2 8

p redicted a n

o llowed by C

RT and SCIP

rformance m e ro are CAM x

o f

‐ 0.49

a tion bias an

P UFF (1.07).

models an d

8 %) has the

n d observed

C ALPUFF (37

UFF close o u

m etrics for t x

d

d

%)

u t

t heFigure C

‐ highest r

is impor t

of mode l

attribut e

performi

SCIPUFF

RANK m e

perform a

Figure C

‐

5.

C.5.2.1 S

PERFOR M

Table C

‐ 6

analyzed

against t

ranked a

ranked f i

(best) F B

regulato r ‐ 40 lists the

r anked mod e

t ant to note

, l performan c

e of model p e

ng model a c

(1.53), FLEX

e tric comes

a nce skill.

‐ 40. RANK s

S UMMARY O

M ANCE ME A

6 summariz e

in CAPTEX R

he RANK m e

s the best p e

i rst for any p

B value (

‐ 0.4 9

r y models t o RANK mode

e l using the

, however, t

c e (correlati

e rformance

c cording to t

PART (1.45)

,

at the expe

s tatistical p e

O F SIX LRT M

A SURES

e s the ranki n

R elease 5 a n

e tric. Depe n

e rforming m

p erformanc e

9 ), but it wa s

o not have a l performan

RANK metri c

hat both CA

on, bias, sp a

to score hi g

t he RANK m e

, and finally

nse of low s

e rformance

M ODEL RAN

n gs of the si x

n d compare s

n ding on the

m odel for a p

e statistics, a

s ranked be h

n underesti m

40 ce statistics

c with a val u

Mx and HY S

a tial and cu m

g h in all area

e tric is CAL G

CALPUFF (1

patial (FMS )

metric for t h

KINGS FOR

x LRT model s

s the averag i

statistical m

p articular st a

a lthough it t i

h ind CAMx (

m ation bias. for the six L

u e of 1.91 f o

S PLIT exhibit

m ulative dis t

s of model p

G RID with a s

.28). Howe v

) and zero c o

h e six LRT m

CTEX5 USIN

s for the 11

i ng ranking a

m etric, five o

a tistic. CAL G

i ed with CA M

FB of +0.49 )

HYSPLIT w a L RT models.

o llowed by H

high scores

t ribution). I t

p erformanc e

s core of 1.5 7

v er, the CAL

o rrelation ( P

m odels and C

G STATISTI C

performanc

a cross the 1

o f the six m o

G RID was th e

M x for havi n

) due to a d e

a s ranked t h CAMx is th e

YSPLIT at 1.

in all four a

t is an impo r

e

. The next

7

, followed b

GRID third b

P CC or R2)

C APTEX Rel e

C AL

e statistics

1 statistics

o dels were

e only mod e

n g the lowes t

e sire for

h e best e

8. It

reas

r tant

best

b y

b est

e ase

e l not

t41 performing model the most often scoring best in 4 of the 11 statistics (36% of the time).

SCIPUFF, FLEXPART and CAMx all scored best with 2 of the 11 statistics (18%) with CALPUFF

scoring best for just one statistical metric.

In testing the efficacy of the RANK statistic, overall rank across all eleven statistics was used to

come up with an average modeled ranking to compare with the RANK statistic rankings. The

average rank across all 11 performance statistics and the RANK rankings are as follows:

Ranking Average of 11

Statistics RANK

1. CAMx CAMx

2. HYSPLIT HYSPLIT

3. SCIPUFF CALGRID

4. FLEXPAR T SCIPUFF

5. CALPUFF FLEXPAR T

6. CALGRID CALPUFF

The results from CAPTEX Release 5 present an interesting case study on the use of the RANK

metric to characterize overall model performance. As noted in Table C

‐ 6 and given above, the

relative ranking of models using the average rankings across the 11 statistical metrics is

considerably different than the RANK scores after the two highest ranked models. Both

approaches rank CAMx as the best and HYSPLIT as the next best performing models for CTEX5,

with rankings that are fairly close to each other. However, after that the two ranking

techniques come to different conclusions regarding the ability of the models to simulate the

observed tracer concentrations for the CTEX5 field experiment.

The most noticeable feature of the RANK metric for ranking models in CTEX5 is the third highest

ranking model using RANK, CALGRID (1.57). CALGRID ranks as the worst or second worst

performing model in 9 of the 11 performance statistics (82% of the time) and have an average

ranking of 5.0, which means on average it is the 5 th best performing model out of 6. In

examining the contribution to the RANK metric for CALGRID, there is not a consistent

contribution from all four broad categories to the composite score (Figure C

‐ 40). Recall from

equation 2

‐ 12 in Section 2.4.3.2 that the RANK score is defined by the contribution of the four

of the 11 statistics that represent measures of correlation/scatter (R2), bias (FB), spatial (FMS)

and cumulative distribution:



# ( ) ( ) 100 / 1 100 / 2 / 1 2 

### KS FMS FB R RANK

− + +

− + =

The majority of CALGRID’s 1.57 RANK score comes from fractional bias and Kolmogorov

‐

Smirnov parameter values. Recall from Figures C

‐ 36 and C

‐ 39 that the FOEX and FB metrics

indicate that CALGRID consistently underestimates. The FB component to the composite score

for CALGRID is one of the highest among the six models in this study, yet the underlying

statistics indicate both marginal spatial skill and a degree of under

‐ prediction (likely due to the

spatial skill of the model).

The current form of the RANK score uses the absolute value of the fractional bias. This

approach weights underestimation equally to overestimation. However, in a regulatory

context, EPA is most concerned with models not being biased towards underestimation. When

looking at all of the performance statistics, CALGRID is clearly one of the worst performing LRT42 models for CTEX5, and is arguably the worst performing model. Adaptation of RANK score for

regulatory use will likely require refinement of the individual components to insure that this

situation does not develop and to insure that the regulatory requirement of bias be accounted

for when weighting the individual statistical measures to produce a composite score.

Table C

‐ 6. Summary of model rankings using the statistical performance metrics and

comparison with the RANK metric.

Statistic 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th 6 th

FMS SCIPUFF CAMx HYSPLIT CALPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID

FAR FLEXPART HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALGRID CALPUFF

POD SCIPUFF CAMx HYSPLIT FLEXPART CALPUFF CALGRID

TS FLEXPART HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF CALGRID

FOEX CALPUFF CAMx HYSPLIT CALGRID SCIPUFF FLEXPART

FA2 HYSPLIT CAMx CALPUFF SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID

FA5 HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF CALPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID

NMSE CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPART HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID

PCC or R HYSPLIT CAMx SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALGRID CALPUFF

FB CAMx CALGRID FLEXPART SCIPUFF HYSPLIT CALPUFF

KS HYSPLIT CALPUFF CALGRID CAMx FLEXPART SCIPUFF

Avg. Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALPUFF CALGRID

Avg. Score 2.20 2.4 3.4 3.8 4.3 5.0

RANK Ranking CAMx HYSPLIT CALGRID SCIPUFF FLEXPART CALPUFF

RANK 1.91 1.80 1.57 1.53 1.45 1.28

C.5.3 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS OF CAPTEX LRT MODEL EVALUATION

Following the ATMES

‐ II evaluation paradigm described in Section 2.4.3.1 (spatial) and 2.4.3.3

(global), the performance of the six LRT dispersion models described in Section 2.2 have been

evaluated for the Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) Releases 3 and 5.

Sensitivities of the INITD (particle/puff) configuration for HYSPLIT and Kz/advection solver

combination for CAMx were examined for each CAPTEX release as well as in intercomparison of

the model performance for the six models.

The model sensitivity results for HYSPLIT and CAMx are largely comparable to the conclusions

from those of the ETEX experiment. For HYSPLIT, the puff

‐ particle hybrid configurations appear

to offer a distinct performance advantage over either HYSPLIT’s pure particle or puff based

formulations. For CAMx, the CMAQ Kz option typically performs the best, followed closely by

TKE. The OB70 combination consistently performs the poorest for both CAPTEX releases. The

evaluation of the use of the CAMx model’s subgrid scale PiG module generally yields slightly

degraded performance statistics over the NoPiG option.United StatesEnvironmental ProtectionAgencyOffice of Air Quality Planning and StandardsAir Quality Assessment DivisionResearch Triangle Park, NCPublication No. EPA-454/R-12-003May, 2012