Adaptive Approach to Ice Management in Areas Occupied by Pacific Walrus Chukchi Sea, Alaska

March 2015 1 | Page



# Adapt ive Approach to Ice Management in Areas Occupied by Pacific Walruses

The corner post of the adaptive management approach to managing ice in areas occupied by Pacific walruses will be monitoring of both ice and marine mammals, including walruses, such that sufficient lead time is provided for consultation and planni ng. During the period of operations Shell will conduct a robust program of ice and weath er monitoring and forecasting. A team of ice specialists will work daily with synthetic aperture radar images purchased for the purpose of produc ing high resolution maps of ice

floes within th e project area (Chukchi S ea (Figure 1). The results of these analyses and forecasts are posted daily to the Shell Ice and Weather Advisory Center (SIWAC). The SIWAC information is available by permission at www.siwac.co m

. Weather forecasts are supported by a network of industry funde d and deployed met

- ocean buoys, coastal weather reporting installa tions, and regular observations following standardized protocols from all Shell

vessels operating in the theate r. Professional meteorologists analyze these data and update NOAA weather models to provide real time support of operations an d localized weather forecasts.

Satellite imagery of ice conditions is also supplemented by ob servations from vessels. When conditions indicate the need, the primary ice management vessel will scout ice in the vicinity of drilling operations.

Professional ice advisors will assess ice conditions and provide detailed descriptions and real time Figure 1 : High resolution ice map from the SIWAC program depicting ice distribution and characteristicsAdaptive Approach to Ice Management in Areas Occupied by Pacific Walrus Chukchi Sea, Alaska

March 2015 2 | Page consul tation to the ice team. Through ice trac king and weather forecasting, the likelihood that Shell would be surprised by changing ice conditions and forced to take action without appropriate con sultation and planning is low.

Walrus distribution data will be derived from three different sources. Pro tected species observers ( PS Os)

will be aboard vessel s engaged in the Shell drilling program and will provide daily reports of walrus and

other marine mammal observations

. These observations will be reported to U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service ( US FWS) on a daily basis. Due to the critical activities of the primary ice management vess el s , five PS Os

will be aboard th ese ves sel s and will provide coverage 24 hours per day with two people on duty

. Since

th ese vessel s are most likely to be operating in c lose proximity to the ice, the PSOs and vessel operators

will have additional training in walrus avoidance and mitigation requirements. Observations will also be aided by the installation of Big

- Eye binoculars

. The data from these vessels will be reported at least daily

. In addition to the observations of vessel based PS Os, Shell will operate aerial overflights in both the nearshore (within 25 miles of shore), alongshore, and offshore (Figures 2 and 3)

. The overflights will be

c onducted utilizing a fixed winged aircraft flying at 1

, 5 00 feet elevation during surveys. High resolution still frame cameras will capture overlapping images during surveys . This sensor package is being evaluated for applicability in unmanned aerial system (UAS), which is the preferred platform for aer ial monitoring in the future. T he imagery from these offshore overflights will be processed as soon as possible

. When the offshore drilling area cannot be accessed, the nearshore/alongshore ( N/A ) flights will be conducted, weather permitting (Figure 3)

. There is also the possibility that the N/A flights would be shifted to higher priority, if observations of possible haulouts were deemed of greater value

. Priority for operation of offshore v. N/A flights will be establish ed through consultation with trust agencies, in cluding FWS, and stakeholders.

Figure 2 : Proposed survey grid for offshore aerial overflights.Adaptive Approach to Ice Management in Areas Occupied by Pacific Walrus Chukchi Sea, Alaska

March 2015 3 | Page Figure 3: Proposed survey grid for nearshore/alongshore aerial surveys.

Additional sources of information that will be utilized to forecast the potential for presence of walruses in the project area will be the data from NMFS aerial survey flights (ASSAM) and USGS tagged animals. At a minimum, Shell will utilize data posted to the USGS w alrus tracking and NMFS aerial survey

websites. Shell will also endeavor to work clo sely with agencies, such that Shell will have access to data prior to its being posted on the website.

Utilizing these three data sour ces that provide indications of walrus distribution in combination with ice maps and forecasts, Shell will be able to generate daily assessments of the potential need to manage ice and the potential for such activities to interact with walruses.

On the basis of these daily assessments, risk ca n be assessed as :

• 1 (no immediate need to manage ice and/or no walrus are present in the project area),

• 2 (possibility exists for ice management and walrus may be present ), and

• 3 (active ice management will be required , walruses are present and potential exists for impacts

to walruses ).

Risk level will be developed by Shell through consultation between ice & weather monitoring and marine mammal monitoring, both of which report to the Science Lead, and with the wells group. The daily risk

lev el will be communicated to USFWS by email a s a part of the daily report. The flow chart in Figure 4 presents the process that will be used to rank risks and initiate consultation both within Shel l and between

Shell and USFWS. The Adaptive Approach function s as outlined in Table 1.

At present the nominal plan is for both Shell and USFWS to maintain a 24 hour duty phone for the purpose of consultation

.Adaptive Approach to Ice Management in Areas Occupied by Pacific Walrus Chukchi Sea, Alaska

March 2015 4 | Page Table 1: Risk Levels for Interactions with Walrus

Step 1 : Ice and weather forecasting will evaluate the potential risk to vessels and the drilling process on the basis of proximity of ice to the drilling operation and factors influencing ice movement.

Step 2 : The risk level will be communicated to USFWS on a daily basis.

If the area of operation is ice free or there is a low probability that ice could impact vessels and drilling operations the risk level is 1 :

• monitoring continues, and

• USFWS notified by email.

If ice is in close proximity, or otherwise potentially threatening vessels and drilling operations, walrus distribution infor mation will be considered. Walrus distribution information will be treated conservatively. There may be times during the season (e. g. late October) when the potential for walruses within the project area is extremely low and risk level

could be assessed as 1 . Otherwise, the difficulty of knowing where all concentrations are, given incomplete monitoring capabilities, leads to the a ssum ption that they may be present. In such cases, the risk level would be elevated to 2

.

• The USFWS would be notified by email, and

• U pdates will be provided by telephone, or in person, during regular business hours.

When at a risk level of 2 , ice management vessels will provide scouting reports that evaluate ice conditions and the presence and distribution of walruses. PSOs on boa rd these vessels will provide around the clock monitoring and will endeavor to assess the potential to disturb walruses through ice management activities.

If ice management is needed and IF the entire ice floe and surrounding areas can be visualized and no walruses are hauled out on the ice, ice management may proceed with care

.

If walruses are present and hauled out on ice which pose s an imminent threat to vessels and/or drilling operations and ice management is needed, the risk level will be elevated to

3 :

• The on duty compliance representative for Shell will notify a designated USFWS representative by calling a duty phone to enga ge in real

- time consultation.

• The Shell drilling supervisor will be engaged to evaluate the status of drilling operations and the potential for implementat ion of ice avoidance measures that may include cessation of drilling activities and moving off hole i n extreme cases. If such alternatives are available and can be implemented, these procedures will be implemented.

• Real

- time communications will be established with the lead PS O on the ice management vessel(s) to assess the proximity and status of walruses hauled out on ice floes that need to be managed. Descriptions of the situation will be shar ed with the consultation team.

• If the team agrees that ice management can go forward, the vessel will approach the ice floe slowly in an effor t to provide walruses an opportunity to react to the approaching vessel and choose to avoid most safely

. Video cameras and still cameras will be used to document procedures and results to enhance the understanding of the risks posed by ice management activities.

• Real time consultation will continue as long as ice management is required, or until the consultation team agrees that proced ures a re going forward successfully.

• A post action report will be fil ed with USFWS within 24 hours. To the extent that communications will allow the transfer of still frame and video, photographic

d ocumentation will be included.

• If real

- time consultation cannot be established, and, if ice management cannot be avoided to protect vessels and critical drilling operations, She ll will proceed as per the

flow chart below exercising all due care for walruses.Adaptive Approach to Ice Management in Areas Occupied by Pacific Walrus Chukchi Sea, Alaska

March 2015 5 | Page Figure 4: Flow chart of risk levels based upon ice, weather, and walrus monitoring.