106th CONGRESS Printed for the use of the

1st Session Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe

A Report Prepared by the Staff of the

Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe

WASHINGTON:1999

GEORGIAS

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION

October 31, 1999
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Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe

234 Ford House Office Building

Washington, DC 20515-6460

(202) 225-1901

csce@mail.house.gov

http://www.house.gov/csce/

HOUSE

CHRISTOPHER H. SMITH, New Jersey, Chairman

FRANK R. WOLF, Virginia

MATT SALMON, Arizona

JOSEPH R. PITTS, Pennsylvania

STENY H. HOYER, Maryland

EDWARD J. MARKEY, Massachusetts

BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland

LOUISE MCINTOSH SLAUGHTER, New York

MICHAEL P. FORBES, New York

SENATE

BEN NIGHTHORSE CAMPBELL, Colorado, Co-Chairman

KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas

SPENCER ABRAHAM, Michigan

SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas

TIM HUTCHINSON, Arkansas

FRANK R. LAUTENBERG, New Jersey

BOB GRAHAM, Florida

RUSSELL D. FEINGOLD, Wisconsin

CHRISTOPHER J. DODD, Connecticut

EXECUTIVE BRANCH COMMISSIONERS

HAROLD HONGJU KOH, Department of State

DR. EDWARD L. WARNER III, Department of Defense

PATRICK A. MULLOY, Department of Commerce

COMMISSION STAFF

DOROTHY DOUGLAS TAFT, Chief of Staff

RON J. MCNAMARA, Deputy Chief of Staff

WILLIAM COURTNEY, Senior Advisor

ELIZABETH CAMPBELL, Staff Assistant\Systems Administrator

MARIA V. COLL, Office Administrator

OREST DEYCHAKIWSKY, Staff Advisor

JOHN F. FINERTY, Staff Advisor

CHADWICK R. GORE, Communications Director, Digest Editor

ROBERT HAND, Staff Advisor

JANICE HELWIG, Staff Advisor

MARLENE KAUFMANN, Counsel for International Trade

KAREN S. LORD, Counsel for Freedom of Religion

MICHAEL OCHS, Staff Advisor

ERIKA B. SCHLAGER, Counsel for International Law

MAUREEN WALSH, Counsel

LEGISLATIVE BRANCH COMMISSIONERS
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ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION (OSCE)

The Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the Helsinki process, traces

its origin to the signing of the Helsinki Final Act in Finland on August 1, 1975, by the leaders of 33

European countries, the United States and Canada. Since then, its membership has expanded to 55,

reflecting the breakup of the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia. (The Federal Republic of

Yugoslavia, Serbia and Montenegro, has been suspended since 1992, leaving the number of countries

fully participating at 54.) As of January 1, 1995, the formal name of the Helsinki process was changed to

the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

The OSCE is engaged in standard setting in fields including military security, economic and environmental cooperation, and human rights and humanitarian concerns. In addition, it undertakes a variety

of preventive diplomacy initiatives designed to prevent, manage and resolve conflict within and among

the participating States.

The OSCE has its main office in Vienna, Austria, where weekly meetings of permanent representatives are held. In addition, specialized seminars and meetings are convened in various locations and

periodic consultations among Senior Officials, Ministers and Heads of State or Government are held.

ABOUT THE COMMISSION (CSCE)

The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), also known as the Helsinki

Commission, is a U.S. Government agency created in 1976 to monitor and encourage compliance with

the agreements of the OSCE.

The Commission consists of nine members from the U.S. House of Representatives, nine members

from the U.S. Senate, and one member each from the Departments of State, Defense and Commerce.

The positions of Chair and Co-Chair are shared by the House and Senate and rotate every two years,

when a new Congress convenes. A professional staff assists the Commissioners in their work.

To fulfill its mandate, the Commission gathers and disseminates information on Helsinki-related

topics both to the U.S. Congress and the public by convening hearings, issuing reports reflecting the

views of the Commission and/or its staff, and providing information about the activities of the Helsinki

process and events in OSCE participating States.

At the same time, the Commission contributes its views to the general formulation of U.S. policy

on the OSCE and takes part in its execution, including through Member and staff participation on U.S.

Delegations to OSCE meetings as well as on certain OSCE bodies. Members of the Commission have

regular contact with parliamentarians, government officials, representatives of non-governmental organizations, and private individuals from OSCE participating States.
CONTENTS

Summary......................................................................................................................................... 1

Political Background ...................................................................................................................... 2

Election Law ................................................................................................................................... 4

Parties and their Platforms.............................................................................................................. 5

The Campaign................................................................................................................................. 5

Factors Behind the CUGs Victory ................................................................................................ 6

Post-Election Trends....................................................................................................................... 6
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GEORGIAS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION

OCTOBER 31, 1999

SUMMARY

On October 31, 1999, Georgia held its third parliamentary election since gaining independence in

1991. President Eduard Shevardnadzes ruling party, the Citizens Union of Georgia, scored a convincing victory. According to the Central Election Commission, in the first round, the CUG won 41.85

percent of the party list voting, or 85 seats, along with 35 single districts. The opposition Batumi Alliance, led by Ajarian strongman Aslan Abashidze, came in second, with 25.65 percent of the vote and

seven districts, gaining 51 seats. Industry Will Save Georgia was the only other party to break the sevenpercent threshold for parliamentary representation, managing 7.8 percent and 14 seats. In second-round

voting on November 14, the CUG increased its lead, picking up ten more seats, and then won another

two in a November 28 third round, for a total of 132. The Batumi Alliances final tally was 59.

Overall, the CUG has an absolute majority in Georgias 235-seat legislature, improving on the

position it held from 1995-1999. Except for Ajaria, where the Batumi Alliances overwhelming victory

was assured, the CUG did surprisingly well all over the countryeven in western Georgia, which has

traditionally been hostile to Shevardnadze. As expected, Georgias Azerbaijani population voted solidly

for the CUG, with Azerbaijani President Aliev strongly endorsing Shevardnadzes party. Most of Georgias

400,000 Armenians voted the same way. By contrast, the Batumi Alliance only won three districts

outside Ajaria.

The outcome did not indicate how tense the race had been between the CUG and the leftist, proRussian Batumi Alliance. A win by the latter threatened to move Georgia into Russias orbit and away

from market reforms. The election also offered a foretaste of next years presidential contest, when

Abashidze runs against Shevardnazde.

With such high stakes and relations so confrontational between the contending forces, charges of

widespread fraud dogged the elections. Of the Central Election Commissions 19 members, only 13

signed the document announcing the results. Nevertheless, OSCEs observation mission called the first

round of the election a step towards compliance with OSCE commitments, adding that most of the

worst violations occurred in Ajaria. OSCEs verdict after the November 14 second round was more

critical, noting violence at some polling stations and vote rigging and intimidation at others. OSCEs

initial cautiously positive judgement, however, allowed Eduard Shevardnadze to claim that democratization is proceeding in Georgia and that the countrys admission to the Council of Europe was well

deserved.

Given the allegations of vote rigging and other infractions, the election has not raised the level of

trust between the CUG and other parties. The CUG singled out Ajaria as the main offender, the Batumi

Alliance alleged CUG chicanery everywhere except Ajaria, and other partiesespecially those that

barely missed the seven percent thresholdaccused both. In fact, no opposition party has recognized the

election results. The Labor Party, which, according to official figures, got 6.85 percent, lost an appeal to

Georgias Supreme Court to invalidate the results and has threatened to bring the matter to the European

Court of Justice. The refusal of opposition parties to acknowledge the official outcome casts a shadow

on the CUGs victory and legitimacy. Still, there are no indications that parliament will not be able to
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function. Aslan Abashidze has claimed massive CUG fraud and has renounced his own deputys mandate but his Revival Party has returned to parliament, which it had been boycotting for a year and a half.

Batumi Alliance representatives have pledged the bloc will be a constructive opposition.

Other parties, especially those with few adherents, will find to hard to survive. Their failure to enter

parliament, with no elections scheduled for four years, may lead to their disappearance or their unification with more serious political contenders, which will try to keep the CUG from becoming an entrenched ruling party.

POLITICAL BACKGROUND

The early years of Georgias independence were volatile. Longtime dissident Zviad Gamsakhurdia,

who was elected president in 1991, was ousted in January 1992. The victorious insurgents invited Eduard

Shevardnadze, Georgias former Communist Party leader and Soviet Foreign Minister, to return to

Tbilisi from Moscow. He arrived in March 1992. The next few years witnessed Georgias military

defeat in Abkhazia, the de facto loss of that region, as well as South Ossetia, the pillaging and terrorizing

of the population by armed paramilitary bands, and the virtual collapse of Georgias economy.

By 1995, however, order had largely been restored and Shevardnadze had eliminated or neutralized the men who had asked him back to Georgia. Consolidating his climb to the top, he received about

75 percent of the vote in the November 1995 presidential election. In the simultaneous parliamentary

election, Shevardnadzes party, the Citizens Union of Georgia (CUG), gained a majority in Georgias

legislature.

The CUG, on the one hand, features an outspoken group of young, pro-Western reformers, epitomized by Parliament Speaker Zurab Zhvania. But many former Communist Party and Komsomol figures are also leading members and head most ministries and executive branch positions. Shevardnadze

has carefully balanced between these two groups while charting a pro-Western foreign policy and, in

cooperation with the IMF and World Bank, moving towards a market economy.

A key part of Georgias political reforms is the emergencepromoted by Shevardnadzeof a

parliament that is a genuine legislature and independent branch of power, though it has generally given

Shevardnadze what he wants. Media in Georgia are largely free, despite harassment of journalists by

local officials. In recognition of the countrys progress towards democratization, the Council of Europe

admitted Georgia last April before neighboring Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Shevardnadze and his CUG could claim some other accomplishments during four years in power:

the elimination of paramilitary bands and the reestablishment of order; the long, ultimately successful

campaign to regain control of Georgias borders from Russian border troops; the establishment of a

pipeline for transporting Azerbaijani oil through Georgia to Supsa, which promises substantial transit

fees; the development of good relations with both Azerbaijan and Armenia; integration into European

structures, with eventual entry into NATO an explicit Georgian goal; the beginning of a corridor from

Central Asia through Georgia to Europe for goods and natural resources, making Georgia a critical

transit point for East-West trade; the impending entry into the World Trade Organization; and, finally,

the consistent support of the United States and the European Union, which have provided desperately

needed financial and humanitarian aid.
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On the other hand, though Georgians are proud of their independence, their living standards have

plunged. Many still lack heat and electricity in winter, unemployment is high and the average monthly

salary is $50. The governments tax collection efforts have floundered, depriving the state of needed

revenue and creating the impression that the government cannot address basic problems.

Moreover, the conflict in Abkhazia has long been deadlocked, and while negotiators are more

optimistic about talks between Tbilisi and South Ossetia, that dispute, too remains unresolved. Highlighting the countrys continued division, Abkhazia and South Ossetia did not take part in the October 31

election. Indeed, on October 3, Abkhaz leader Vladislav Ardzinba held a presidential election, in which

he ran unopposed, and a referendum asking if people support his course for Abkhazias independence.

Nor does Tbilisi control Ajaria, an Autonomous Republic on the Black Sea mostly inhabited by

nominally Muslim Georgians. Its authoritarian ruler, Aslan Abashidze, reigns supreme, flouting Tbilisis

writ and challenging Shevardnadze. Moreover, many people in Western Georgia, home region of the

late Zviad Gamsakhurdia, remain bitterly opposed to Shevardnadze. These chronic domestic problems

directly threaten Georgias sovereignty and Tbilisis hold on the country.

For the last decade, Russiawhere hardline forces blame Shevardnadze for his role in the Soviet

Unions withdrawal from Eastern Europe and the breakup of the USSR has helped instigate these

problems, while exploiting them to maintain its presence and position in the Caucasus. Russian military

forces, as well as north Caucasians, backed Abkhazias bid for independence and helped defeat Georgia

in 1993. Georgians maintain that Russians have also been involved in assassination attempts in 1995 and

1998 on Shevardnadze, though the intended victim carefully absolves President Yeltsin of responsibility.

Russia maintains constant pressure on Georgia through its four military bases in the country.

Georgias parliament has never ratified the 1995 basing agreement and Tbilisi has called for the bases

removal, starting with Gudauta (Abkhazia) and Vaziani, near Tbilisi. But Aslan Abashidze, who has

close military and financial ties with Russia, has barred any withdrawal of the base in Batumi. Moscow

has instead offered to close the base in restive, Armenian-populated Akhalkalaki. Fearing yet another

separatist explosion, Tbilisi wants the base, the main employer in the region, to remain in place for now.

Always difficult, ties between Moscow and Tbilisi have seriously deteriorated as the latest war in

Chechnya intensifies. Charging that Chechen terrorists and arms are transported through Georgia (and

Azerbaijan), Russian officials have demanded that Georgia let Russia assume control over the border

with Chechnya from the Georgian side. On September 28, Moscow badgered Georgia and Azerbaijan

into an agreement to cooperate with Russias Internal Affairs Ministry against terrorism. Russian media

have whipped up a hysterical anti-Georgian campaign, even claiming that Georgia is preparing to host a

Chechen government-in-exile; the charge seemed intended to justify a direct Russian threat against

Georgia. In the runup to the November 1999 OSCE Istanbul Summit, Moscow exerted intense pressure

on Georgia to cede a portion of its CFE quota to Russia.

The belief of many Georgians that Moscow has orchestrated their misfortunes has helped

Shevardnadze by lowering expectations. But with the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts quiet, if

festering, the main issues in the October 31 election were socio-economic: unemployment; salaries and
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pensions, which often go unpaid; and corruption, which is endemic and eliciting growing public anger.

Shevardnadzes own reputation has not suffered much, but Georgian newspapers openly report on members of his family and other relatives who have become rich.

In the November 1998 local elections, the CUG won a majority in most districts, but most striking

were the gains by the leftist Labor Party, the Socialist Party and Abashidzes Revival Party. According

to various observer groups, the CUG manipulated and occasionally rigged the balloting, or these parties

might have done even better.

As the October 1999 parliamentary election approached, polls showed the CUGs declining popularity and party leaders knew they needed Eduard Shevardnadzes active involvement in the campaign.

Abashidzes announcement that he would run for president in April 2000 evidently provided a strong

incentive: the 71-year-old Shevardnadze traveled around the country, courting voters. He also went to

Armenia on September 29, clearly hoping an endorsement from Yerevan would carry weight with

Georgias Armenians. A leitmotif of Shevardnadzes campaign speeches was that a foreign power

Russiabacked the Batumi Alliance, whose victory would be tantamount to a parliamentary coup.

This argument was graphically illustrated by statements in two separate interviews shortly before

voting day, which put the elections basic geo-strategic issue in the starkest possible form: Shevardnadze

voiced the hope that Georgia would knock at NATOs door by 2005; General Vyacheslav Borisov,

Commander of Russias base in Batumi, said the Batumi Alliance would win and then Russia could

keep its four military bases in Georgia for 25 years.

Aware of the stakes, Washington tried to bolster Shevardnadze. President Clinton could not help

by getting the UN to charge Abkhazia with ethnic cleansing, as Georgia had urged, or offering a Kosovo-style NATO operation to regain Abkhazia. But U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen visited

Tbilisi in early August. He remarked that it was up to the Georgian people whether to host military bases

of foreign statesleaving open the theoretical possibility of a U.S. base in Georgia. On September 23,

Clinton received and lavishly praised Shevardnadze.

President Clinton also backed Shevardnadze against Abashidze when the latter got involved in

business dealings with Hillary Clintons brothers. Hugh and Tony Rodham, hoping to cash in on hazelnut cultivation in Georgia, stopped in Tbilisi only briefly before spending a week in Ajaria, prompting

Abashidze to proclaim that the White House supported him. At urgent Georgian behest, the White

House forced the Rodhams to pull out of the deal. The bizarre episode demonstrated Americas clear

preference for Shevardnadze  but it also showed how worried he was about his challenger in Batumi.

One week before the election, Georgian authorities demonstratively showed off newly- delivered U.S.

helicopters as a symbol of Washingtons support.

ELECTION LAW

Of the 235 seats in Georgias parliament, 150 are allocated according to the results of proportional,

party list voting and 85 are contested in single-district majoritarian races. In an effort to keep the number

of parties manageablethe 1992 election produced a fractious parliament of 24 partiesthe law for the

1995 election stipulated a five-percent threshold for entry into parliament. In July 1999, at the initiative
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of Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia, leader of the National Democratic Partythe only party to pass the fivepercent barrier in 1995, except for the CUG and Aslan Abashidzes Revival Partyparliament voted to

raise the threshold to seven percent.

The move infuriated smaller parties, for which a five-percent minimum would have been difficult

enough. Sarishvili-Chanturia argued, however, that it was necessary to foster a system of stable, influential parties.

PARTIES AND THEIR PLATFORMS

The elections drama centered on the contest between the CUG and the Batumi Alliance. Apart

from these two contenders, only three or four of Georgias myriad parties had a chance to break the

seven-percent threshold: The Third Way, a bloc uniting the Christian-Democratic National Democratic Party (NDP), the Industrialists and the Republicans; the Peoples Party, an offshoot of the NDP;

Industry will Save Georgia; and the Labor Party. Below is a brief description of the three parties that

made it into parliament.

Citizens Union of Georgia: The ruling party had to defend its record as well as promise a better

future. In campaign spots, CUG leaders reminded voters that during the last four years, the judicial

system had been reformed, and human rights were better protected by the passage of laws and the

creation of institutions, such as an ombudsman. They also claimed credit for forcing corrupt ministers to

resign. The CUGs slogan was from stability to prosperity, bringing home the message that Georgia

had consolidated its security and could now begin addressing economic matters. Party leaders placed 49

new, young, Western-educated members on the party list, and asked voters to let the CUG continue the

reforms it had launched. But the CUG also emphasized that the victory of Aslan Abashidzes bloc would

threaten Georgias statehood.

Batumi Alliance: The bloc consists of Aslan Abashidzes Revival Party; the Union of Traditionalists; the Socialist Party; and several pro-Gamsakhurdia parties. Abashidze is the alliances leader and

financier. He bases his appeal to Georgians on law and order  in the early 1990s, he kept paramilitary

marauders out of Ajariaon his relative success in paying salaries and pensions, and his overall record

on iron-fisted discipline. The Batumi Alliance promised to create jobs, restore public services and eliminate corruption. As for Abkhazia, Alliance leaders in Batumi told Helsinki Commission staff that only

Aslan Abashidze, who had no part in starting the war in 1993 and was not identified with Tbilisis

policies, could successfully negotiate with Abkhaz leader Vladislav Ardzinba and resolve the conflict.

Industry Will Save Georgia: This new bloc is a coalition of well-heeled business interests led by

beer magnate Gogi Topadze. Maintaining that Save Industry and Industry Will Save Georgia, their

nationalist message emphasized the need to protect Georgias industries from foreign competition. The

bloc argued against the sale to foreigners of assets such as energy stations and the port in Poti, and in

general, opposed Western strictures, including IMF guidance, on how to run Georgias economy.

THE CAMPAIGN

The campaign was open but bruising. In Abashidze-controlled Ajaria, where only posters of

Abashidze and other Batumi Alliance candidates were visible, the CUG encountered hostile crowds and

official harassment. Batumi Alliance spokemen told Helsinki Commission staff that Georgian state

television discriminated against the blocs candidates in allocating airtime, though CUG representatives
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strongly denied the allegations. Ajarian authorities barred high-ranking CUG leaders from entering Ajaria

for several days. Some CUG local officials returned the favor: for instance, they kept campaign buses

waiting outside Tbilisi for days before allowing them to enter the capital, and elsewhere in the country,

impeded the Batumi Alliances efforts to campaign.

FACTORS BEHIND THE CUGS VICTORY

Given well-publicized, widespread discontent in Georgia over low living standards, endemic corruption and disillusionment with the CUG, most analysts had expected a much closer contest than the

results indicated. The ruling partys easy win apparently reflected several factors:

 Voters concerns about the Batumi Alliances pro-Russian orientation, substantially aggravated

by Moscows war in neighboring Chechnya, plus intensified Russian pressure on Georgia;

 Abashidzes announcement of his intention to run for president next year brought home the

implications of having a president known for his odd behaviorincluding his refusal to leave

Ajaria because CUG leaders have allegedly plotted to kill him and his claim that a photographers

flashbulb caused his heart attackand authoritarianism. Virtually all opposition has been stamped

out in Ajaria, where freedom of the press, assembly and association are severely constrained;

 In a country already rent by separatist conflicts, voters were anxious about Abashidzes flagrant

overtures to Georgias regions and ethnic minorities. He refused to criticize Abkhazias October

3 election/referendumwhich Tbilisi and the United Nations consider illegalor to characterize the expulsion of Georgians from Abkhazia as ethnic cleansing, which Georgia has urged

the United Nations to do. Abashidze has also courted Georgias Armenian population, provoking nightmares of another Nagorno-Karabakh-type conflict on Georgian territory;

 Finally, the successful electioneering of local officials appointed by Shevardnadze aided the

CUGs campaign. These officials worked hard to ensure that voters in their regions would cast

ballots for the CUG. Moreover, CUG-initiated amendments to the election law increased the

partys sway over many election commissions. All levels of election commissions had government-appointed majorities.

POST-ELECTION TRENDS

The CUGs success ensured a second term as Speaker of Parliament for Shevardnadzes close ally,

Zurab Zhvania, who ran unopposed. Convening on November 20, the new parliament elected him by a

vote of 162 to 29. Zhvanias re-election consolidates his status as the frontrunner-reformist to succeed

Shevardnadze in 2005. Before then, he would also be a serious candidate if the position of prime minister is created.

The CUGs convincing victory dampens Abashidzes hopes of mounting a serious challenge in the

April 2000 presidential contest, and should induce others to throw their hat in the ring. Labor Party

leader Shalva Natelashvili has already announced plans to do so. But Shevardnadzes victory now seems

assured, barring extraordinary events.

Nevertheless, Shevardnadze has announced yet another war on corruption. Skeptical voters expect

more than symbolic gestures and international financial institutions demand concrete action to improve

Georgias miserable tax-collection, which reached its lowest level in October. Failure to address the

problem could endanger IMF loans and World Bank programs. On December 6, Shevardnadze said
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corruption is the main cause of Georgias budget crisis, and indicated that battling corruption will be a

key issue in his campaign. High ranking military officials have already been accused of malfeasance and

a scandal in the Georgia Shipping Company may lead to indictments of legislators.

The election consolidated the preeminent status of the CUG and the Batumi Alliance but neither is

united. The latter in particular brought together parties and individuals sharing only a strong antipathy to

Eduard Shevardnadze. Abashidze will try to maintain discipline among the Alliances members but

many analysts expect the bloc to splinter, a process the CUG will surely attempt to help along. The CUG,

for its part, will spend the next six months preparing for the April 2000 presidential election but afterwards, could also fracture as ambitious politicians begin jockeying for role of Shevardnadzes heir apparent. At present, Zurab Zhvanias leading rival is Minister of State Vazha Lortkopanidze. Another

possible development is the formation of a new party composed of the CUGs pro-Western reformers,

who have found it difficult to continue working with the ex-Soviet officials in the party.

The election and its outcome promise no major progress towards resolving the conflict in Abkhazia.

But the CUGs convincing victory provides Shevardnadze the broad-based support to continue pressing

for the removal of Russian bases; a diminished Russian presence in the region could promote a settlement of the dispute. At the November 1999 OSCE Summit in Istanbul, as part of the adapted Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement, Russia agreed to remove two of its four bases by July 2000,

while negotiations proceed on the other two.

Nevertheless, recent statements by Russias military and political leadership make plain that Moscow sees the war in Chechnya not merely as a struggle against terrorism but as a campaign to stem

Russias retreat in the Caucasus and general decline while Western countriesespecially the United

Statesincreasingly penetrate the region. The November 18 signing of a deal between Baku, Tbilisi and

Ankara to construct a U.S.-backed oil pipeline from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey is a blow to

Moscow, which has been pressing for a northern pipeline through Russia. Cut out of the potentially

lucrative arrangement and determined to regain a hold on the entire region, Moscow may be tempted to

move against the Baku-Supsa western pipeline.

More generally, Moscows defeat in the 1994-96 Chechen War emboldened Georgia (and Azerbaijan) to take a much more openly pro-Western stance. Russian helicopters and planes have already

violated Georgian air space twice, bombing targets near the Chechen border. If Russia reestablishes

control over Chechnya, Georgia could be the next target. Continued strong backing from the United

States will be needed for Georgia to withstand the pressure.