Company: GM and AMC

PELLETED OXIDATION 260 CUBIC INCHES

Description

Part Material MS wT
Converter Assembly Assembly 26.20
Outer Wrap 409SS 2792 8.00
Shell 409SS 3920 4.00
1/O Pipes 409SS 3920 2.50
Bed Support 409SS 3920 3.77
Insulation Fibre glass KZ1-6 1.50
Pellets Alumina 5835 6.43

Platinum 5748

Palladium 5749

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED

grams

1.74


ENG

erererrrrrrre
Perey ree ee ens

L-4T

<<rreerceer
Tee aaa aa

BBAHDAAAAAD

AX-SPIRIT

BaSBaAaRoaSSaASBSRA

cID

70
78
78
78
1915
124
121
1st
151
140
140
78
78
140
140
70
140
70
140
232
232
232
232
232
258
258
258
304
304

€ -EAGLE

H -CONCORD

P -PACER
Rt-COMMUTER CAR

R2-LE CAR

R3-R18

OCONNN@®BMADHY=HWHUYHWWUUNMOOBWWU

UN RSASWWDVWONANANN=ANNNNANN eee ee

BD TR OR

R41
R2
R2
Ra
R3
AX

z aa

>

>
VX VIMVUITIMxmamMseImonImimsr

PDPPP PPP PPP EPEP PEEP PPE EE EP PEPE
DHDDADABDADATMATBAANAADADDTAANAN

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
AMC

LAST UPDATE 12-18-80
(UNITS X1000)

CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS

20 22 24 26 27) «(27.5 29° «30.5 32° 33.5 35 36.5 38 «439.5 41 42.5

MPG 79 80 81 82 83 B84 85 86 87 88 a9 90 of 92 93 94 95
35 ° oO ° oO o ° ° 10 25 30 50 55 55 40 25 15 °
3f 20 30 40 50 ie) ce) oO oO oO oO oO ie) oO oO oO oO ie)
32 ° ° ° ° 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 50 40 30 25 15 10
32 ° oO () ° 60 60 60 60 60 60 6o 50 40 30 25 15 10
24 3 10 50 50 oO Oo te) ° () to) to) ° ° ° ° oO 1)
26 0«23 ° iv) ° ° ° oO ° °o ° oO fe) ° oO ° o °
25 «31 o oO ° ° to) oO oO ° ° oO ° oO ° oO oO fo)
24 fo ° 10 27 (o) oO ° fo fo) ° oO ° ° oO ° o oO
25 fo) St St 58 ° fo) fo ° o ° ° ° fo Q °o oO °
25 ° fo oO ° 27 37 47 27 17 10 oO ° fo oO o oO °
26 ° fo} ° ° 5B 58 58 48 18 5 ° fo) ° ° ° oO oO
32 ie) oO ie) fe ° 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 fe) ce) ° ce] °O
32 o) ° o) ° ° 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 ° ce) ° ° oO
25 o oO oO oO 10 10 10 20 20 10 oO ° ° oO ° oO o
26 ° o ° ° oO 10 10 10 10 5 oO 0 ° ° oO ° °
44 oO ie) oO oO ce) ce) oO coe ce) 15 20 30 65 80 95 110 127
3 fe ° ° fe Oo o to) 30 40 30 30 25 15 15 10 10 10
44 ce) ie) oO o oO ie) oO oO Oo 15 20 30 65 80 95 110 128
31 fe) ie) fe) fe) fe) ° ie) 0 oO 10 10 10 15 10 10 10 ce)
23°¢«64 ° ° oO oO io) o ° ° ° ° oO ° oO ° oO oO
21 oO ie) 33 25 20 15 10 ie) fe] ° ie) ce) ie) ie] oO ce) oO
23°0°«97 to) oO ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °
24 ° ° 30 25 15 ° oO ° ° to) oO ° to) oO oO ° fe)
22 38 ° oO oO oO oO oO io) to) Q ° te) ° ° ° ° °
20 ° 74 34 25 20 15 10 fe oO ° ° te) oO ° 9 oO °
23 (e) 117 37 25 15 oO oO ° fe ° ° ° ° fo oO oO °
22 ° 3 ° (e) ° oO ° ° ° oO (0) ° to) to) oO fe °
16 6 te) oO ° ° oO fe oO fo) oO to) te) ° to) ° ° °
16 3 ° ° co ° fe Oo o Oo ° ° fe} to) oO ° ° °

TOTAL: 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285


g- Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(1) 100% FWD
(2) 50% 4-cylinder gas engines
45% 4-cylinder diesel engines
5% 6-cylinder gas engines

(3) 20% Turbocharged engines

4. Scenario Assumptions for GM

a. Improve CAFE by expanding the X line.

First Year With FWD

80 81 82 83 84 85 86
Body Type xX Ix AX Bx TX YX
CX AspX FX
Pp EX
KX

(1) Accelerate FWD program so that all cars are FWD by 1986.

(2) Reduce period between downsizing and FWD from seven to

five years.
(3) Introduce a two-seat S Car (commuter) by 1983.
b. 1986 would be the first year with all front-wheel drives.

This, in our opinion, represented the greatest opportunity for GM to
capitalize on engine, transmissions, and FWD commonality.

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
GM-EV

LAST UPDATE 2-11-81
(UNITS X1000)

CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS

20 22 24 26 27) 27.5 29° 30.5 32° 33.5 35 36.5 38 «439.5 41 42.5
ENG cID t BD TR DR MPG 719 80 B81 82 82 B4 85 a6 a7 8B 89 90 ot 92 93 94 95
Ev - - EV - F 185 fe] oO ° o Le) 10 20 25 35 85 175 200 250 300 325 425 500
L-3 90 1.5 S- A F SO fe) ° ° ie) ° ° ie] ° 35 85 148 200 223 253 253 303 353
L-4 981.6 T M R 33 307 404 504 604 754 854 ° °O oO oO ° ce] oO ° fo} oO °
L-4 98 1.6 TX A F 36 fe] ce) ie) ° fo) ie) 854 854 804 804 B04 704 704 704 704 604 541
L-4 110 1.8 OP A R 30 18 18 oO ie) ° ° ° ° ce) oO oO ie) ° ° oO oO ce]
L-4 110 1.8 AX A F 31 O oO oO o oO °O oO ° ° 25 sO 100 100 so sO 25 25
l-4 °110 1.8 JX A F 34 fo} oO fe] 100 125 150 200 200 200 175 150 100 100, 50 50 25 25
L-4 110 1.8 X A F 31 oO ° fe) fe) 50 100. 175 175 175 175 150 100 100 sO so 50 50
L-4 1512.5 AX A F 28 ie] fe oO 150 200 200 200 254 200 oO ° te) oO ° ce oO oO
L-4 151 2.5 ASX A F 28 ie) oO oO ce) Oo fo} oO io) 54 154 104 79 79 54 ce) oO oO
L-4 1512.5 H A R 25 145 145 145 oO fo ce) ie) ce oO oO fe} oO oO ° ie) ie] °
L-4 151 2.5 JX A F 28 ce) oO ° 145 245 245 245 245 245 205 150 75 50 oO ie] ie] ce)
L-4 1512.5 X A F 28 ° 150 300 300 350 325 325 325, 325 300 150 75 50 fe oO oO oO
L-4aT 98 1.6 TX A F 36 oO fe oO ie] ° oO oO 30 40 55 100 125 125 150 150 150 100
L-4T 151 2.5 AX A F 28 oO oO ce) ie) 25 50 100 150 150 100 75 25 25 fe) ° oO oO
L-4T 151 2.5 ASX A F 28 ie) fo) oO ie) oO oO fe 100 , 100 80 60 20 20 oO oO oO oO
L-4T 151 2.5 UX A F 28 oO ie) ie) ie) o oO oO 100 100 80 60 20 20 ie) ie) ° oO
L-4T 1512.5 X A F 28 oO o 50 100 125 150 475 225 225 200 100 25 25 oO oO oO fe)
L-3D 90 1.5 S A F 65 oO oO oO oO oO oO oO oO oO ° 100 200 200 300 400 500 650
L-4D 110 1.8 JX A F 40 oO fey fo 25 50 50 70 70 85 115 145 200 220 240 270 320 370
L-4D 110 1.8 TX A F 42 oO fo o oO oO °o oO 30 55 148 198 258 298 348 348 388 478
L-4D 151 2.5 AX A F 37 oO ce) oO ce) oO 25 40 50 70 100 150 200 200 250 250 250 200
t-4D 151 2.5 ASX A F 37 oO oO oO fe] oO oO oO oO 25 50 100 175 175 200 200 200 200
L-4D 1512.5 X A F 37 oO ° oO °o ° 25 40 50 80 100 150 200 200 225 225 225 200
L-4TD 110 1.8 TX A F 42 ce) oO oO oO Lo oO ie) oO 50 148 198 248 298 348 348 398 478
L-4TD 151 2.5 AX A F 37 fe) te) fe) oO ° fe] ° oO 30 so 100 120 120 180 180 180 150
L-4TD 151 2.5 ASX A F 37 ce) fe) oO fo} ie oO oO Lo} 20 50 120 150 150 200 200 200 175
L-4TD 1512.5 X A F 37 ce) oO fe] oO ie) o oO 25 30 50 100 130 430 180 180 180 150
v-6 173 2.8 AX A F 26 oO 9 oO fe) 50 100 100 200 200 175 100 75 50 25 ce] oO ie)
v-6 1732.8 FX A F 26 ° oO oO oO 50 150 150 200 200 175 100 75 50 25 oO ° oO
vV-6 173 2.8 H A R 22 76 76 ie] fe) ie) 0 ce) ie] ce) oO ° fe} ce] oO oO oO oO
v-6 173 2.8 JX A F 26 oO ° 76 106 156 206 206 256 206 100 75 60 40 25 o fe] ce]
v-6 1732.8 X A F 26 oO 70 100 120 140 170 170 220 220 100 75 50 40 25 oO oO ie]
v-6 2293.8 A A R 22 62 100 100 fe) Le) QO ce Q ie] te) ie) QO fe} 0 ° oO Oo
v-6 229 3.8 AX A F 26 ce] fo ie) 100 100 155 155 185 185 155 55 50 30 25 oO oO fo
v-6 2293.8 AS A R 22 62 100 100 50 30 9 oO fe fe) ie) ce] fe ce] oO fo ° ie)
v-6 229 3.8 FX A F 26 oO fe ° 30 30 30 90 120 120 100 40 fe} ° ie) ° ° °
v-6 2293.8 X A R 22 142 ° ce) ° fe} fe] Q ° ° Oo ° oO ° ° ° ° ie)
v-6 2313.8 A A R 23 352 352 352 to) ° ce fe} fe) ce) ° fe oO oO oO Lo ° °
v-6 2313.8 AX A F 28 ie) oO oO 352 352 352 352 352 167 167 100 88 80 50 ° ° °
v-6 2319.8 F A R 23 13 88 138 oO oO fe) oO fo ° ° fe) Oo fo) oO Oo fo °
v-6 231 3.8 FX A F 28 fe ce] re) 138 138 138 138 138 63 63 ie) Oo ° fe) oO ° °
V-6 2313.8 H A R 23 63 63 13 ie) fe} ce oO fo} oO fe fe) ie) oO fe ie) fe oO
V-6 (231 39.8 JX A F 28 fe) ie) ie) 113 113 13 113 113 63 63 30 ° fe) fe ° oO 0
W-GT “991 TRAX A F OR a) o 9 (0) 50 100 100 ° 160 160 100 50 50 50 50 ° ° io)


Company: Chrysler

3 WAY MONO - CLAM SHELL CONVERTER REDUCING OXIDATION (260) CLAMSHELL

Description
Part Material MS wT
Converter Assembly Assembly 26.17
Outer Wrap 4095S 2792 8.00
Shell 409SS 3920 4.00
V/O Pipes 409SS 3920 2.50
Bed Support 409SS 3920 3.77
Insulation Fiber glass KZ1-6 1.50
Substrates (Cordite 0,) Ceramic 5747 3.10
Washcoat AL203 5835 .10
Ibs. grams
Platinum 5748 1.88
Palladium 5749 59
Nox Substrate Ceramic 5747 3.10
Washcoat AL,0; 5835 10
Rhodium (L4) 1936 -09
Ruthenium (L6-V8) 430 17

RATH & STRONG

INCORPORATED


SCENARIO/TOVOTA (07/31/80) 3:41 PM TUESDAY, AUGUST 12, 1980

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
+ TOYOTA
CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS
, 20 22 24 26 27) «(27.5 29° 30.5 32° «33.5 35° «36.5 38 «439.5 41 42.5
€NG CID L BO TROR MPG 79 60 Bf 82 63 a4 65 a6 67 68 89 90 1 92 93 4 95

744.2 4 & R 27 130 ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °
091.5 2 A F 30 O 130 150 199 230 260 330 4230 508 ° o ° ° ° oO. ° °
971.6 1 A ® 26 108 ° ° ° ° ° ° C) ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °
1081.68 ¢ A R 27 O 108 128 158 158 «158 128 0)=«678 ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °
1942.2 3 4 8 20 60 60 40 20 20 ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °
4342.2 @ AR 22 60 60 40 20 10 ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °
1562.6 5 AR 21 75 75 %75 60 40 40 ° ° ° ° o ° ° ° ° ° °
1562.6 6 AR 24 75 75 75 60 SO S50. 50 ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° ° °

TOTAL: $08 SO8 508 508 5O0B SOB SOR 508 508 o:- o ° ° ° ° ° °

4 -CoROLLA

2 -TeRceL — Fwd

2 -CORONA

4 -CELICA

S -CRESSIDA

6 -supRA

2. STALLET- Fwo


VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
GM-2WD TRUCKS

LAST UPDATE 12-23-80
(UNITS X 1000)

CAFE STANDAROS CAFE PROJECTIONS

16 18 19 20 at 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 at 32

ENG CIO L 80 TR OR MPG 79 80 at 82 83 a4 as 86 a7 8B 89 90 a1 92 93 94 95
L-4 110 1.8 LV A R 26 o oO 50 100 200 400 600 800 1000 o oO oO o oO ° fe) °
l-4 110 1.8 LV A F 26 oO ce) oO ie) oO fe) oO oO O 1200 1100 1000 850 700 525 350 175
L-4D 110 1.8 LV A F 33 o oO o oO o o oO o ° Oo 192 327 S22 682 857 1032 1207
t-6 250 4.1G! M R 20 939 39 205 250 300 250 200 155 125 50 35 25 10 °o i oO oO
L-6 250 4.1 G2 M R 20 12 12 75 100 125 110 100 75 50 25 15 10 oO oO oO re) ie)
L-6 250 4.1 G3 M R 20 6 6 715 100 125 110 100 7s so 25 15 10 oO oO ce] oO oO
L-6 250 4.1 G4 M R 20 1 1 15 100 125 110 100 65 50 25 15 10 ce) oO oO oO oO
L-6 250 4.1 G5 M R 21 43 43 100 150 200 165 140 125 67 37 10 oO oO oO oO oO ie)
L-6 250 4.1G6 M R 21 7 7 27 62 62 $2 42 27 20 10 fe fe) oO fe oO ° fe
v-8 305 5.1 G! A R 17 97 97 1B0 180 390 90 45 40 20 10 ie) oO oO oO ie) oO oO
v-8 305 5.1G4 A R 17 7 7 30 30 15 15 10 10 ° (o) to) o oO ° ° oO °
v-8 305 5.1G5 A R 18 29 29 60 60 30 30 1S 10 (o) ° oO o fo) oO ° ° °
v-8 350 5.8 Gt A R 16 288 288 170 85 40 20 10 ie) oO °o fe} fe) ie) oO fe} oO QO
v-8 3505.8 G2 A R 16 104 104 sO 25 10 oO ° 1) ° o oO ° o o oO oO °O
v-8 3505.8 GF A R 16 62 62 30 15 ° oO oO ° ° ° o fo () ce) oO oO oO
v-8 350 5.8 G4 A R 16 50 50 25 10 o oO oO ° ° fo) oO ° ° ° ° oO oO
v-8 350 5.8 Gi A R 16 169 169 110 55 30 15, 10 fe) oO fe) oO ie) oO oO oO oO °
v-8 3505.8 GG A R 16 191 191 120 60 30 15 10 ce oO oO ° ° ° fe ° ° °
v-8 4006.6 Gt A R 14 72 72 oO fo) oO oO ° oO oO fo ° ° oO fey ° ° °
v-8 4006.6 G2 A R 14 26 26 oO o o ° (+) oO fe fo) te) fo (°) oO ° oO oO
v-8 400 6.6 G3 A R 14 16 16 oO fe) oO oO ce) fe} oO e) oO oO ie) io) ie) ce) oO
v-8 400 6.6 G4 A R 14 13 13 oO oO o o ce) oO ie) oO fe} oO oO oO oO oO Oo
vV-8 4006.6 G5 A R 14 42 42 oO o to) ° ° ° o °o ° o oO o °o o) °
v-8 400 6.6 G6 A R 14 48 48 oO oO oO ° te) ie) ie) oO oo fe) oO oO fo oO fe}
TOTAL: 1982 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1362 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382
Lv-Luv
G1-EL CAMING,CIO
G2-C20
G3-C30

G4-SUBURBAN, BLAZER
G5-SPORTVAN, CARAVAN
G6-P SERIES


ENG

i]

oo

BOOSTHGSOBFHHHHAAAHAADAD

terre

<<eceecececerrrrrerrrreer

cIo

110
124
156
110
225
225

* 225

225
225
243
243
318
318
318
318
318
360
360
360
360
360

DAGKUTAAGUTAGATAROWOODU=ENN=

WOOOONNNKHNOONVININEDO®

BD TR OR MPG
G6 A F 26
m6 M R 25
M4 M R 23
c A F 33
ct M R 20
c2 4 R 20
c3 M R 19
ca MR 19
cS M R 20
ci M R 26
c2 M R 26
cH AR 16
c2 A R 17
c3 A R 16
c4 AR 15
ch AR 16
ct A R 16
c2 A R 16
ca A R 16
c4 A R 16
cS A R 16

TOTAL:

C -MINI PICKUP
C1-0100
C2-D200
C3-0300

C4-RAMCHARGER

C5-TRADESMAN
M4-050, ARROW PICKUP

~
oO

o

a
ONBMs=NOOW=0000

67

272

16

80

o

ON@d=-F00n-0000

67

81

20
20

35

10
WwW
1
40
10
10
10
50
10
10

20
272

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE

19

B2

o
24
23

oO
35
10
to
10
10
20
15
35
10
10
10
50

eoo0°o

CHRYSLER-2WD TRUCKS

CAFE STANDARDS

20

83

272

21

84

60

aT
1S
20
20
20
25
25

cooooouun

22

85

Boaeae © —
=nuuUannooos

eoooouugmun

272

LAST UPDATE 12-23-80
(UNITS X1000)

23

66

coooouumuon

272

24

87

yn ooo0000000

N
x

25

ecoooo0oocoo

272

26

8g

eccoooooo000

272

27

90

na a
oxrnooo

ao
eocooocooocoucooscoo

N
_
n

28

91

50
oO

°
100

ecocooceooco

272

29

o
S

a

eoccdoog0O n= G00008008

272

CAFE PROJECTIONS

30

o

Deoodo COCO OMROOODOONOOS

272

a

N
ce}

nN
eoocoDD DOCG OMMOD000NOOS

272

32

95

00000000005500000N005

NX
_
ry


SCENARIO/ALFA (07/30/80)

20
€NG cIO L B80 TROR MPG 79 RO

l-4 120 2.0 ¢t A R 21 2700 2700
L-4 1270 2.0 2 M ® 21 650 650
L-4 1270 2.0 3 M R 20 650 ASO

TOTAL: 4000 4090

1 -SPORT SEDAN
2 -SPIDER VELOCE
3 -SPRINT VELOCE

22

°°. 909

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCFNAPIO
RY FNGINE SI7F
ALFA ROMEO

CAFE STANDARDS

24 78 27° «27.5 29
A2 ad RA as np
oO oO oO oO o
o oO 0 0 o
ce) 0 0 oO ie)
0 fod oO o o

320.5

Ay

2. 3900

4:22 PM TUF SOAY

32

o 000

Aq

2° 000

90

3.9900

aucust

v2,

196)

CAFE PROJECTIONS

ag.5

o 9300

ar

a2

o 0o00

39.5

93

o 9090

4at

94

o 99090

42.5

95

o ooo


SCENARIO/FERRARE (07/30/80) 3:34 PM TUESDAY, AUGUST 12, 1980

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARTO
BY ENGINE SI7F
FFRRARE
CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS
20 22 24 26 27) (27.5 29° «30.5 320«93.5 38 96.5 38 «99.5 41 42.5
ENG CID Lt 8D TROR MPG 79 80 et 82 83 64 RS AG AT aA a9 90 a1 92 93 94 95

v-8 93.0 1 MR ° o o ° oO 0 ° o oO o o o ° ° ° °
v-8 1793.0 2 M R ft 300 o o o oO o o o o o o o o o o ce °
v-8 1793.0 3 M R 11 400 o oO o ° o fe 0 o ° o o o o ° fe) °

TOTAL: (000 te] oO Le o o o o o °o fe) o o ° o ° o

4 -DING 308 GT4
2 -308 GiB
3 -308 GTS


D.

(2) Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:

(a) 100% RWD
(b) 100% gas engines

(3) Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:

(a) 96% FWD
4% RWD

(b) 76% gas engines
24% diesel engines

(4) Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:

(a) 100% FWD

(b) 13% gas engines
87% diesel engines

Scenario Assumptions for International Harvester

(1) International will drop the light trucks to concentrate on heavier
trucks.

(2) Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:

(a) 100% RWD

(b) 53% gas engines

47% diesel engines
(3) Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:

(a) 100% RWD

(b) 16% gas engines
84% diesel engines

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


Compeny: Chrysler

Vehicles

Cars - USA

Canstant
Volume Total

Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A.

Light Trucks
USA

Constant
Volume Total

Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A.

Total USA
Cars & Light
Trucks

Total N.A.
Cars & Light
Trucks

Mat'l

PT

PA
RO
RU

PT
PA
RO
RU

PT
PA
RO
RU

PT
PA
RO
RU

MS

5748
5749
1936

430

5748
5749
1936

430

5748
5749
1936

430

5748
5749
1936

430

1980

2535200
1027000
25200
13420

950000

741000

725868
294046
7215
3842

272000

222000

3261068
1321046
32415
17262

2569892
1041053
25545
13603

1981

2225400
919600
13500

930000

637167
263296
3865

160000

2862567
1182896
17365

2553354
1055120
15489

CRA

CRITICAL MATERIALS

(in grams.)

1982 1983

1710800 1466400

536900 460200

53100 70200
60800 -

990000 1100000

489829 419853

153723 131763
15203 20099
17408 -

200000 185000

2200629 1886253

690623 591963

68303 90299
78208

2143002 1983498

672538 622482

66514 94954
76160 -

1984

1466400
460200
70200

1125000

419853
131763
20099

185000

1886253
591963
90299

2022088
634592
96802

1985

1428800
448400
68400

1150000

409068
1283846
19584

195000

1837888
576784
87984

2022680
634840
96840

Est.

1986

1278400
401200
61200

1160000

366026
114870
17523

195000

1644426
516070
78723

1823402
572238

87291

1987

1146800
359900
54900

*

910000

328347
103045
15719

*
200000

1475147
462945
70619

1339945
420515
64147

1990


ENG

BASSSRADSSaSaoOaddadaaARSaRRD

ree eee eee tenn

pers
s

a

Coed el ll lol ll ll ll ll el ll

1
baa
aaa

L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
l-4T
L-4T
L-4D
L-40
L-4D
L-4D
L-40
L-40
L-40
L-4D
L-4D
t-40
l-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TD
t-4TD
L-4TD
1-ato!

cID

a6
86
66
9B
98
98
104
110
110
135,
135,
135
135
156
156
156
156
156
156
86
86
110
110
110
110
135
135
135,
135
86
86
116
116
116
116
135
135
135
135
86
86
116
116
116
116

tL BD TR OR MPG

a NNN He BAND NN wee He RD NNNNNNNNN eee eee
DODO ANNNNW ODORS ANNNNODBBSLAADAAADADANNNNBHVYAAHS DD

uk,
mt
s
m1
M2
“3
tL
L
tk
FK
kK
MK
RK
M2
M3
FK
LK
MK
RK
LK
s
FK
LK
MK
RK
FK
LK
MK
RK
LK
s
FK
lk
MK
RK
FK
LK
mK
RK
tk
s
FK
u«
MK
RK

PDD PEPE PPP EEE EEE EPS E> PEEP PPED PEPE EE EPSP PEREEED ED

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAATANATAADOANRAMAANBHA As

37
37
40
32
31
31
27
3f
37
KB
34
34
at
25
25
27
27
27
27
37
40
36
37
35
35
31
31
31
31
50
52
4i
4a
ai
4t
40
40
40
40
50

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
CHRYSLER

LAST UPDATE 12-18-80
(UNITS X1000)

CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS
20 22 24 26 27° (27.5 29 «30.5 32 33.5 35° 36.5 38 39.5 41 42.5

719 80 81 82 83 B4 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

° o oO oO ° oO 15 20 25 25 25 35 35 30 25 15
28 28 28 2B 28 28 fe) o oO oO oO oO ° ° oO fo) °
oO ° ° o o o ° oO fo) o 15 20 40 50 55 55 40
28 28 28 28 28 28 ° o oO ° o fe) oO o fo) o oO
8 8 8 8 8 8 ° ° oO oO oO oO o oO ° oO fe
10 10 10 10 10 10 oO oO ie) ° oO fe) oO oO oO fe) fe]
186 186 70 o oO ° oO ° fe) ° od ° ° ° ° °
° ° oO 70 70 70 ° ° (o) oO ° ° ° oO ° ° fo)
oO fe) oO oO ce) ° 70 50 50 50 40 35 35 35 30 25 15
oO oO 180 200 200 200 150 100 80 75 60 sO 50 50 45 40 30
° fo) fo) o ° ° 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10
° oO oO oO 40 40 50 50 40 30 25 25 20 20 10 10 10
ce) fe fe Q 40 40 50 so 40 30 28 25 20 20 10 10 10
8 8 8 8 8 8 ° fe Oo o oO oO ° oO ° ° °
10 10 10 10 10 10 ° ° ° ° ° ° oO ° ° ° oO
oO ° 197 200 200 200 150 100 7s 60 60 50 25 10 10 10 °
oO i) oO ° ° te) 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 oO ° ° °
oO oO oO oO 40 40 50 50 40 30 25 25 10 oO ie] ° oO
fo) ° oO ° 40 40 50 50 40 30 25 25 10 ° fe) ° °
ce ° oO ° ° ° Oo ° ° ° 10 15 25 25 25 20 10
oO oO o e) ° ° o ° o oO 10 15 25 35 45 45 45
0 ° oO oO ° ° 20 25 25 30 30 30 35 40 40 35 30
oO ° ° fe) oO ° ° ° ° 15 15 20 25 30 30 20 15
o oO ° ° o ° 15 20 20 20 20 20 25 30 30 20 15
° ° ° ° 18 18 18 20 20 20 20 20 25 30 30 20 15
o) oO ° oO ° oO 20 25 25 30 30 30 30 20 20 15 19
° ° ° oO ° fe ° 15 20 20 20 20 15 10 ce) ° te
fe) ie ° ° oO fe) 15 20 20 20 20 20 15 10 oO o oO
° fo ° ° °o oO 15 20 20 20 20 20 15 10 fe) fe) °o
oO oO oO oO fe o fe ° () ° 10 15 25 40 50 70 100
fe fo oO °o oO te) ° oO ° io) ° 15 25 40 50 70 100
oO o (o) 89 150 150 125 75 75 7s 65 45 35 20 20 20 20
oO ° fe) o ° oO o) 15 20 25 25 20 10 ) oO ° °
° ° fe ° ° oO 15 25 30 30 25 20 10 to) ° ° oO
oO ° ° oO ° oO 15 25 30 30 25 20 10 oO ° fe) °
oO ° fo) oO oO oO oO 25 30 40 40 45 55 55 55 50 50
ce) ce) ie) oO oO co) ce) 10 20 25 25 30 40 Ao 45 40 30
oO ° oO oO. 0 ° oO 10 20 20 25 30 40 40 45 40 30
ie) oO oO oO °o oO oO 10 20 20 25 30 40 40 45 40 30
ie) oO oO oO oO fe) oO oO oO o 10 15 25 40 50 70 100
ie) oO fe] oO oO ie) oO oO oO ce) ce) 15 25 40 so 70 100
°o oO oO oO 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 10 ° oO fe) o
oO oO oO ie) oO oO ie) 10 15 15 10 10 oO ce) ie) oO oO
o ° to) ° fo fe) ° 10 15 15 10 10 ° to) te) ° °
0 to) Oo ° ° 0. co 10 15 15 10 10 ie) fe oO fe) °


SCENARIO/MAZDA (07/31/80)

ENG «CID tL BO TR DR MPG

morany 70 1.1 ¢ A R 21
L-4 661.42 4 8 33
t-4 661.4 2 A F 35
t-4 120 2.0 3 A R 27
TOTAL:
9.-RX 7
2 -GLC

3 -626

719
4s
8s
27
187

20

80

a3

85
av

187

22
et

40

27
187

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO

CAFE STANDARDS

24
82
35

Qo
90
32

157

RY ENGINE SIZE
TOYO KOGYN (MAZDA)

26
63
30

o
95
32

187

27

25

95
ku

187

27.5

as

20

95
42

187

29

RG

15

too
42

187

30.5

67

10

100
ay

157

32

110
ar

1S7

33.5

a9

137
20

187

as

30

157

187

3:41 PM TUESDAY, AUGUST 12,

1980

CAFE PROJECTIONS

36.5

ot

eo 9900cd

38

92

o 9000

39.5

93

eo 0000

at

94

eo ooco

42.5
9s

eo 9000


FINAL REPORT

CRITICAL MATERIALS SCARCITY
RECYCLING AND SUBSTITUTION STUDY

SUBCONTRACT
BETWEEN
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES INC.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02116
AND

RATH & STRONG INC.

21 WORTHEN ROAD
LEXINGTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02173

SUBCONTRACT NUMBER 501-1
UNDER
PRIME CONTRACT EPA NUMBER 68-03-2910

April 1981

LeRoy H. Lindgren,
Vice President
Rath & Strong, Inc.

RATH & STRONG

INCORPORATED


SCENARID/SAAB (07/31/80) 3:40 PM TUESDAY, AUGUST 12, 1980

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
SAAB
CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS
20 22 24 26 27° «(27.5 29° «30.5 320«33.5 35° 36.5 38 «439.8 41 42.5
eno 6cID Ll OCB te OR mPa = =79 80 et 82 83 ae 8s a6 87 6a ag 90 A) 92 93 oe 98

$21 2.0

t 1 AR 23 3 L} 1s o o ° oO o oO ° ° ° ° ° ° G

t 1212.0 2 A R 20 10 a 8 o oO oO o ° ° ° °o ° ° Led ° ° °

L-«T 1212.0 3 A R 22 2 2 5 o ° o o o ° ° °o o o o ° ° oO
, TOTAL: 18 15 Ss 15 o oO o 0 o ° ° ° o ° ° °o o

1-99

2 -900

3 -900 TURBO


SCENARIO/TRIUMPH (07/31/80) 3:41 PM TUESDAY, AUGUST $2, 1980

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
TRIUMPH

CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS
20 22 24 26 27°«(27.5 29° «30.5 32°«923.5 38° («396.5 38 «(39.5 at 42.5
ena «6CID «6L hU6BD TRDR MPG 79 80 et 82 83 84 as a6 67 8B 89 90 91 92 93 4

9s
e145 8 m@ R 26 6 4 5 9 13 ° o o o ° ° ° o ° ° Qo 0
1222.0 2 4 R 22 7 6 5 3 ° ° ° oO ° o o ° o ° oO ° °
2193.5 3 AR 18 fe 3 3 ' ° o ° ° oO o oO o ° o oO oO oO
TOTAL: 493 19 413 43 3 o o oO o o o o 0 o oO ° °

4 -SPITFIRE

2 -TRT
2 -TRE


SCENARIO/PORSCHE (07/20/80)

cio Lt BO TR OR MPG 79

124
121
183
201
273

vaone

R 20 7
a 20 oO
ag 16 3
R 16 1
R 14 3
TOrAL: 14

20

80

ooo

@ Nn
= N

eo osoc°o

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
PORSCHE

CAFE STANDARDS

24

oe
n

o 9eeo0°0

26

o
o

o 99000

27 27.8
a4 6s
Oo o
o °
° oO
o o
o oO
° oO

29° «30.5
66 a7
° oO
oO o
o o
o o
° °
oO o

3:42 PM TUESDAY,

32 «33.5
668 89
Qo oO
° oO
o oO
° °
o o
oO °

38

30

o 380000

AUGUST 12,

1980

CAFE PROJECTIONS

36.5

o 00000

38
92

o 00900

39.5
93

o 90000

as

o oo0c00

42.5
9s

o 20000


i. Fleet sales for 1985 as follows:
(1) 100% FWD

(2) 75% 4-cylinder gas engines
25% 4-cylinder diesel engines

(3) 20% Turbocharged engines
j. Fleet sales for 1990 as follows:

(1) 55% 4-cylinder gas engines
d
45% 4-cylinder diesel engines

(2) 20% Turbocharged engines
k. Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:

(1) 30% 4-cylinder gas engines
70% 4-cylinder diesel engines

(2) 20% Turbocharged engines

3. Scenario Assumptions for Ford

a. Improve CAFE by introducing and expanding the Escort to the car

lines.
First Year With FWD
1980 1981 1982 1983
Body Type HE F Hsp

Fiesta*

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


Company: GM

Vehicles

Cars - USA

Constant
Volume Total

Consensus
Forecast
Total N.A.

Light Trucks
USA

Constant
Volume Total

Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A

Total USA
Cars & Light
Trucks

Total N.A.
Cars & Light
Trucks

Mat'l

PT
PA
RO
RU

PT
PA
RO
RU

PT
PA
RO
RU

PT
PA
RO
RU

MS

5748
5749
1936

430

5748
5749
1936

430

5748
5749
1936

430

5748
5749
1936

430

1980

11273400
4823400

5700000

4723000

2733305
1169463

1382000

904000

14006705
5992863

11129021
4761627

1981

10855800
4645800

4890000

2632055
1126403

905000

13487855
5772203

11036729
4723230

CRA
CRITICAL MATERIALS

(in grams. )

1982 1983
8936400 8278200
3826800 2584200

- 586200
5500000 5900000
2166685 2007100

927831 626555,

: 142128
1275000 1350000

11103085 10285300
4754631 3210755

- 728328

10621773 10529288

4548521 3286921
745605

1984

7597800
2371800
505800

6050000

1842133
575057
122634

1350000

9439933
2946857
628434

9863810
3079178
656652

1985

7938000
2478000
522000

6150000

1924617
600806
126562

1400000

9862617
3078806
648562

10514368
3282263
69142)

Est.

1986 1987
9525600 8731800
2937600 2725800

636000 564600
6190000 7930000
2309540 2117079

720968 660887

154202 136891

*

1430000 1200000
11835140 = 10848879
3694568 3386687
790202 ~ 701491
12734222 13986199
3975234 4366062
850231 904351

1990


NORTH AMERICAN
LIGHT TRUCK MARKET

FORECAST
(X 1000)
CONSENSUS - SURVEY RATH & STRONG
: 1983 1985 1987
Company 1980 % % % %
SOM SOM SOM SOM

‘FORD 715 29 | 1,000 30 | 1,030 32 600 25 RWD
GM 904 37 | 1,350 40 1,400 44 1,200 51 FWD X - J Trucks
CHRYSLER 222 185 195 6 200 8 FWD K - L Trucks
AMC 103 150 155 5 50 2 4-Wheel Only
IH (Scout) 10 ) 0 0
vw 22 1 35 1 35 1 50 FWD
NISSAN 105 3 110 3 110 3 RWD
Domestic Market 1,976 80 | 2,825 85} 2,925 91 2,210 | 91
Import Trucks 500 20 400 15 275 9 150 9
Total Markets 2,476 3,225 3,200 2,360

The light truck will lose volume to the cars.



Company: AMC
Vehicles Mat'l
Cars - USA PT

PA
RO
RU
Constant
Volume Total
Consenaus *
Forecast
Total-N.A.

. Light Trucks
USA

Constant
Volume Total

Consensus *
Forecast
Total N.A.

Total USA
Cars & Light
Trucks

Total N.A.
Cars & Light
Trucks

PT
PA
RO
RU

PT
PA
RO
RU

PT
PA
RO
RU

*=R & S Forecast

MS

5748
5749
1936

430

5748
5749
1936

430

5748
5749
1936

430

5748
5749
1936

430

1980 1981

646000 846000
363000 363000

285000

185000 170000

457137 457137
196147 196147

154000

103000 85000

1303137 1303137
559147 559147

854905 756947
366821 324789

CRA

CRITICAL MATERIALS

1982

846000
363000

490000

457137
196147

140000

1303137
559147

979579
420316

(in grams.)
1983

677920
328800
20520

225000

474385
177667
11088

150000

1352305
506467
31608

1155158
432631
27000

1984

683380
322960
24020

250000

477335
174512
12979

150000

1360715
497472
36999

1238251
452700
33669

1985

685060
321160
25100

250000

478243
173539
13563

155000

1363303
494699
38663

1254239
455123
35570

1986

799200
286200
24300

260000

431848
154648
13131

160000

1231048
440848
37431

1181806
423214
35934

Est.

1987

763680
273480
23220

130090

412655
147775
12547

50000

1176335
421255
35767

482297
172715
14664

1990


* Fiesta will be dropped as an import in 1981 and will begin production in

the U. S. using Escort components.

b. Proco is cancelled.

c. Import Toyo Kogyo 4-cylinder diesel 2.0L engines, beginning in
1984.

d. Import TC 6-cylinder diese! BMW-STEYR in 1984.

e. Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:

(1) 75% FWD
25% RWD

(2) 65% 4-cylinder gas engines
5% 4-cylinder diesel engines
15% 6-cylinder gas engines
15% 8-cylinder gas engines

(3) 20% Turbocharged engines

f. Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:

(1) 95% FWD
5% RWD

(2) 40% 4-cylinder gas engines
30% 4-cylinder diesel engines
30% 6-cylinder gas engines

(3) 20% Turbocharged engines

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


Company: Chrysler

02 MONOLITH OXIDATION 63 CID

Description

Part Material MS wt
Converter Assembly Assembly 22.97
Outer Wrap 409SS 2792 8.00
Shell 409SS "3920 4.00
1/0 Pipes 409SS 3920 2.50
Bed Support 409SS 3920 3.77
Insulation Fiber glass KZ1-6 1.50
Substrate (Cordite 95) Ceramic 5747 3.10

grams
Wash Coat AL,0; 5835 -10 Ibs.
Platinum 5748 1.74
Palladium 5749 744

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


SCENARI0/VOLVO (07/31/80)

Ena «CID tL 80 TR DR MPG

1-4 190 2.1 1 A R 22

.-4 190 2.4 2 A R 22

v-6 1692.7 2 AR 19

v-6 1692.7 4 A R 19

v-6 1742.6 5S AR 19

v-6 1742.8 6 A R 19
TOTAL:

4-240 ,

2 -DL SEDAN

3-260 SEDAN

4@ -626C

S -GLE COUPE

6 -COUPE

20

60

20

18

18

56

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZ€
votvo

CAFE STANDARDS

a4
82

o 900000

26
83

eo 9000090

27 «(27.5
a4 85
° oO
°o °
oO oO
o o
° °
te °
°o o

29 «30.8
86 a7
o o
oO o
oO °
o o
o oO
o °
fo) o

3:42 PM TUESDAY,

3233.5
aA 89
oO °
o oO
oO oO
o o
o o
o oO
o o

35

90

o eo0009

aucusT 12,

1980

CAFE PROJECTIONS

36.5

eo 9900000

3a
92

o o0900000

39.5

93

eo 9090000

at

eo 9000000

42.5
93

eo 99090000


SCENARIO/AUSTIN (07/30/60)

ENG CID lt 80 'TR DR MPG
t-4 914.5 + M R 20
t-4 110 1.8 2 MM R 20

TOTAL:
1 -MIDGET

2 -McB

79

13
2

26

20

80

26

28

22

at

390

VFHICLE PRODUCTION SCTNARIO
AY FNGINE SI2F
AUSTIN (MG)

CATE STANDARDS

24 26 27) 27.8 29

a2 ar 84 an R6
Oo oO o oO ie)
Oo o oO oO 0
oO 0 ce] a

30.5

R87

30

3:33 PM TUFSMAY,

32

8A

oo

aa.

Ao

30

35

a0

oO
Oo

AUGUST 42,

1980

CAFE PROJECTIONS

74.5

at

o
°

a

a2

io}

39.5

93

o
oO

at

94

oo

42.5

95

oo


ARTICLE III

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE

The period of performance of this contract shall be
eight (8) months from the effective date of this Subcontract,
which shall be concurrent with the effective state date of the

Prime Contract.

ARTICLE IV

This is a cost plus fixed fee completion type contract
as defined in FPR 1-3.405-5(e) (1).
The estimated allowable cost for this contract is
$26,643 and the fixed fee is $2,131. The total estimated cost
—— ————
plus fixed fee for this contract is $28,774.
Se el

ARTICLE V
GENERAL PROVISIONS

R & S agrees that all work under this Subcontract is
subject to the terms set forth in the document entitled
“General Provisions" which is attached hereto and made a part
hereof.

In the General Provisions, the terms "Seller" refers to
General Research Corporation and "Buyer" refers to Charles
River Associates Incorporated.

This Subcontract requires the written consent of the
Prime Contract contracting officer prior to the placing of
this Subcontract.

-5-


d.

ee.

f.

h.

Eagle downsized in 1981.
Produce own 4-cylinder engines in 1983.
Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:
(1) 50% FWD Renault
30% 4WD

20% RWD

(2) 10% 6-cylinder gas engines
90% 4-cylinder gas engines

(3) 15% Turbocharges engines
Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:

(1) 85% FWD
15% 4WD

(2) 35% 4-cylinder diesel engines (Purchased from Renault)
65% 4-cylinder gas engines

(3) 25% Turbocharged engines
Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:

(1) 95% FWD
5% 4WD

(2) 90% 4-cylinder diesel engines
10% 4-cylinder gas engines

(3) 45% Turbocharged engines

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


SCENARTO/MERCEDES (07/31/80)

t-40
L-so
t-50
L-so

L-STD 189

<<<eree
aaaaaaa

C@arvauraune

cro Lt 8D TR OR MPG

aT
183
183
183

168
168
168
276
276
276
aiy

euaassue00o.s

ARRENNNOUWON
rs
PPP PrP rrr repre

Nm-OVStAusaune

-240 0
-300 D
300 CO
300 SO
-300 TO
-280 E
-280 CE
-280 SE
480 SEL

10-450 SL
99-450 SLC
12-6.9 SEDAN

30
23
25
25
26
16
16
16
4
4
14
12

anannanaonana

TOTAL:

_
es

BANNAausaeaad

a
a

20
RO

Ounnaauaunud

oe
a

22

eodccaauanaaay

a
a

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCFNARIO

CATE STANDARDS

24

2
ic)

COCOaNNwCaaaN

a
a

BY ENGINE SI27F

MERCEDES-BENZ

26

2
a

=

wo G900V,0002004

w

27

l-RoRok-R--k-2

my)
ry

27.5

eo000co sana

n
xy

279

esoocoooaNNNY

a
eo

30.5
ary

o ese9000000000

3:3R PM THURSDAY,

32

AAR

eo.se0000000000

eo esooo9oo9escooNd

35

90

eo seo0000000000

AUGUST 12,

1980

CAFE PROJECTIONS

36.5

ot

eo 9eo090000000000

38
92

eo 9009000000000

39.5
93

o e9e0900000000

at

eo 000000000000

42.5
95

o 0000000000090


SCENARIO/PEUGEOT (07/30/80) 3:39 PM TUFSDAY, AUGUST 12, 1980

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
PEUGEOT
CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS
20 22 24 26 27) (27.8 29° «30.8 320 «93.5 36 (36.5 38 «439.5 at

ena «cid 6b 6BD TRODR MPG O79 60 et 62 ag 84 a5 86 a7 86 a9 90 of 92 93 94

19

oOo ' arn 8 o o oO oO 0 ° o o oO Le QO ed oO ° oO
1202.0 2 A R 18 o s a 4 2 ! 1 oO o o o o o ° o °
4492.3 3 A R 29 s ° oO oO ° o oO ° o fe) oO o ° o ° °
1412.3 4 A R 29 0 s 7 a 10 11 "1 12 oO ° ° o ° ° ° °
1742.8 5 AR IS 2 2 1 ° o ° oO o fo) to) o oO o o o °
TOTAL 12 12 12 12 42 12 12 12 o oO ce] o ° ° oO oO
4-904
2 -805
3 -3040
4 -$050
8 -604

o 9090000


SCENARIO/ROLLS (07/30/80) 3:39 PM TUFSDAY, AUGUST 12, 1980

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCFNARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
ROLLS ROYCE

CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS
20 22 24 26 27)«(27.8 29° «30.5 32°«393.5 35° 36.5 38 39.5 ay
tno cio t BD TROR MPG 79 #0 at 82 83 84 as AG a7 66 89 90 gt 92 93 94
1 A R tt 200 oO oO ° o oO 0 o o o o o ° ° ° oO
2 a R 11 200 oO o oO o o o o fe ° °o ° ° ° o °
3 a R 1f 200 ° ed °o ° ° oO o oO ° o ° oO ° o °
4 A R tt 200 oO o o o ° o o o fe ° ° ° ° o °
3S A R 19 200 o ° o o o o ° o o o o ° ° o °o
TOTAL: 1000 o el o ° oO o ° ° o oO ° ° o oO °

“SILVER SHADOW ‘IT
“SILVER WRAITH IT
-*CORNICHE COUPE
-CORNICHE CONVERTIBLE
-CAMARGUE

1
2
3
4
8

eo 900000


AUTOMOTIVE SCENARIO 1980-1995

Introduction

Some of our clients in the tooling industry are confronted with unexpected

windfall business that may create an overoptimistic forecast of their future

capacity requirements.

To meet the need for valid consumption scenarios, we have developed a

methodology to assess the impact of current economical trends, new technology,

and current legislative action relating to the automotive industry. These data

are "what if" scenarios, not necessarily predictions or forecasts.

A.

Methodology

The methodology which we elected to follow, if straightforward at first

sight, looks awesome:

Ll

2.

3.

These scenarios optimize diesel engines and full size cars to achieve
maximum profits and machine tool investments.

We created a hypothetical fleet of cars for each manufacturer, year by
year, for the 1980-1995 period which would meet a hypothetical CAFE
standard (between 1985 and 1995), would comply with the 1985 emission
standards, and still generate profits for the manufacturers.

This first phase is referred to as the scenario.

For sake of simplicity and for lack of better knowledge, we kept the
total production of cars to the 1979 level knowing that we could always
modify the outputs by merely changing the production input in the
revised scenario.

We will now cover in detail the assumptions made for each company in
preparing the scenario.

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIES

WORLDWIDE

COMPANY TIME PERIOD $ BILLIONS
1. G.M. 1980 - 1985 $38.0
2. FORD 1980 - 1985 $20.0
3. CHRYSLER 1980 - 1985 $13.6
4. AMC 1980 - 1985 $3.0
TOTAL ALL FOUR COMPANIES $74.6

RATH & STRONG ESTIMATE

(LESS INFLATION)

FOR 35 MPG 1985 - 1990 $55.0
FOR 42.5 MPG 1990 - 1995 $20.0
TOTAL $75.0

INCLUDES TOOLING AND FACILITIES INVESTMENTS |

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


ARTICLE I
STATEMENT OF WORK

As subcontractor to Charles River Associates, Rath & Strong
will help investigate for the Environmental Protection Agency
the potential of developing mobile source emission control tech-
nologies that are effective in meeting the most future emission
standards, but which do not contain materials that: (1) are
critical or strategic, (2) contribute to balance of payment
difficulties, or (3) require undue reliance on potentially
unpredictable foreign sources of supply.

The specific goals which will be met by this project
are to (1) quantify the critical materials used in mobile
source emission control systems, (2) investigate the feasi-
bility of recycling those critical materials, and (3) study
materials that might be used as replacements for certain specific
critical materials.

In order to meet or exceed the goals of this contract,

Rath & Strong shall provide all of the necessary personnel,
facilities, and equipment to perform the following tasks.

Task 1 -- Critical Materials Study

Rath & Strong will quantify the amounts of potentially
critical materials in current mobile source emission control
systems for automobiles, light trucks, and heavy trucks,
using prior work done by the firm for EPA, JPL, DOT, DOE and
NAS. Rath & Strong will also estimate materials requirements
at the component level for advanced emission systems for trucks,
motorcycles, and diesels, focusing on those components which
use significant amounts of potentially critical materials.

This work will be similar to earlier work done for automobiles
by Rath & Strong, but will be more narrowly focused on material

-2-


1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

INDEX

Work Statement

Contract - Subcontract 501-1

Task 1 - Critical Materials Study

Task 2 - Recycling Study

Task 3 - Replacement Study

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


Company: Ford

Part

Converter Assembly
Shell

Ring

Inlet Cone

Outlet Cone

Inlet Pipe

Flanges

Mesh

Hardware

Substrate /Cordite 0,
Washcoat

Platinum
Palladium

MONOLITHIC OXIDIZING CATALYST

63 CUBIC INCH SUBSTRATE

Description
Material

Assembly
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
Steel
Ceramic

ALO;

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED

MS

3920

~ 3920

3920
3920
3920
3920
5789

420
5747
5835

5748
5749

WT

7.900
2.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
+250
+150
-100
1.300
-10

Grams
1.74
744


(a) A brief statement of work accomplished prior to
the state of the current reporting period;

(b) A brief statement of work performed during the
reporting period, regardless of results, including
photographs, graphs, tables or charts as necessary;

(c) Any technical problems, schedule changes, etc.,
that will assist CRA's Project Officer in evaluating
the subcontractor's progress;

(a4) All experimental data collected during the reporting
period;

(e) A statement of work to be accomplished in the next
reporting period, and

(£) Status of funds expended for the month, the
cumulative total, and a comparison of projected
and actual costs.

Task 1 Subreport

Within 3 months after the effective date of the
Subcontract, Rath & Strong will submit to CRA a
detailed listing of the quantities of potentially
eritical materials required for emission control
systems under various scenarios for the size and
composition of future vehicular production.
Preliminary results will be provided to CRA as they
become available.

Within four months after the effective date of the
subcontract, Rath & Strong will-submit to CRA a
finished draft chapter presenting the above listings
of critical materials, explaining clearly the auto
production scenarios upon which they are based and
any other underlying assumptions.

Task 3 Draft Material

Analysis of replacement possibilities by Rath & Strong
for Task 3, based on the Task 1 analysis, will be
submitted to CRA within eight (8) months after the
effective date of this subcontract. This discussion
will be in draft form suitable for inclusion in a
draft final report.


COMPARISON

1500 2200 2700 3200 3000 3500 3700 |
185 MPG 3 cyl 4 cyl 4 cyl 4 cyl 4 cyl v6 V8/V6
Electri V6 cyl V6 cyl v6
ectric G/D G/D G/D G/D G/D G/D G/D
45/55 30/40 25/35 20/25 25/35 20/25 20/25
GM EV s J x AX FX KX cx
FWD FWD FWD FWD FWD FwD FWD
CVT 125 125/440 440 440 440 440
T300
X-Truck X-Truck
FORD {e) EXP s E FX Ltd Taurus Versaille Contin.
FWD 3) fo) FWD RWD FWD RWD RWD
iva 8 ATO FIOD ATO FIOD FIOD
uw ow Topaz
Courier
RWD
CHRYSLER ce) ce) Omni K
K_Truck
FWD
AMC (0) Mini LeCar | Maxi LeCar awo
Jeep
Vw ie) re] Rabbit detta
ickuy an
Fwo | FWD
TOYOTA re) Oo Tercel Corolla
FWD RWD
HONDA Civic Accord
NISSAN 310 FWD
210 RWD |
CODES

FWD - Front Wheel Drive

K or X ~ Design Designation for FWD Cars and Trucks
' 425/440 - FWD Transmission - GM

ATO - FWD Transmission ~ Ford
FIOD - RWD - Transmission - Ford


Draft Final Report

SCARCITY, RECYCLING AND SUBSTITUTION OF POTENTIALLY
CRITICAL MATERIALS USED FOR VEHICULAR EMISSIONS CONTROL
Subreport

Prepared for

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2565 Plymouth Road
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105

CRA #501



ENG CID
t-4 76
L-4 73
L-4 at
L-4 107
L-4 107
L-4T 79
L-4T 793
L-4D 0 Of
t-4TD 9f
L-4TD 691
A-ACCORD
C-CIVIC

P-PRELUDE

tL BD TR DR MPG
2 CM F 33
3°C M F #33
5 Cc M F 31
B A A F 27
6 P A F 27
3 A A F 32
3°P A F 32
5 C M F 49
5 A A F 49
5 P A F 49

TOTAL:

719

60
°
65
39
26
o
°
fel
fo)
°

190

20
80

NODA
eooconwgug

190

22
Bt

RVAAA
ecco onvnoug

190

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO

BY ENGINE SIZE

HONDA

LAST UPDATE 12-18-80

(UNITS X1000)

CAFE STANDARDS

24
B82

26

83

°
65
60
29
20
10

27

84

°
65
60
24
16
1S

to

190

27.5

85

65
60
24
13
15
13

190

29

65
50
20
13
19
13
10

190

30.5

87

65
45
20
13
19
13
15

190

32

°
65
45
18
10
pal
16

15

190

33.5

89

55
40
18
10
zt
16
30

190

35

20

40
30
15
10
24
16
55

190

CAFE PROJECTIONS

36.5

91

oO
40
20
10
5
19
10
65
10
"1

190

3s

92

oO
40
10

oO

°
19
10
75
20
16

190

39.5

93

oO
40
°
Oo
oO
19
10
as
20
16

190

4t

94

190

42.5

190


Task 1

Rath & Strong Inc. developed a set of scenarios for automobiles and light trucks
that are included with this report. We also included a forecast of the
econometric demand (consensus) and Rath & Strong's projection of the likely mix
or share that was used to project the economic forecast. The first scenario is a
technological projection of the changes in vehicles and emission systems by

company and by year at a constant volume.

These two scenarios were used to generate the critical material demands using
Rath & Strong's computer data base which resides on Data Resources Inc.
computer in Lexington. Each emission system was defined for each vehicle
configuration for several levels of emission standards. The diesel engines were
assumed to be equipped with a monolithic substrate contained in a 409 steel
clamshell particulate trap in which the particulate particles are burned off using
exhaust gas temperatures. The scenarios define the introduction of the 4 - 6 and
8 engines starting in 1980.

The summary of the critical materials is included in this section. Also, we
included the specifications of the emission system configurations used in the

vehicles.

The platinum series summary indicates that a decline in usage is likely due to
reduction in gasoline engine sizes and the introduction of diesel engines which
reduce the use of gasoline engines. Also, it was assumed that noble metals would

not be used on the particulate trap substrate.

The motorcycle usage of a catalytic device will not affect the usage
significantly.

The heavy truck conversion to diesel engines will put a demand on particulate
traps but it will have little or no effect on the critical materials demand. The
gasoline engine will be replaced by diesel engines in all classes over Class 2
trucks.

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


This Subcontract is entered into as of December 10, 1979.

CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES INCORPORATED RATH & STRONG, IN.

DV Lf
By: OMster—
Harrison S. Campbell E. Robert Barlow
Typed Name Typed Name

Assistant Treasurer
Vice President and Treasurer

Title Title
December 27, 1979

——_—__—December 10,1979

Date Date

Written approval of
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
contracting officer:

72/11/29

Date


SCENARIO/AUDI (07/31/80)

ENG CID

97
7
134

eee
aa

4 -FOX
2 -4000
3 -S5000

tL 8D TR OR MPG

1.6 ¢ M F 23
1.6 2 M F 23
2.1 39 A F 20

TOTAL:

79

20
23

ay

20

RO

25
Rn

22

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCFNARIN
RY FNGINE SI7F
AUDTL

CAFE STANDARDS

24

a2

oe. e900

26

AQ

o 9035

27

RA

o 009

2ns

aS

o. 9900

29

AG

co3

30.5

AT

2 90900

3:32 PM TUFSDAY

AA

o° 900

qa.5

Ra

o 909090

a8

wn

> 9900

Ai

OU

a
“

12,

1980

CAFE PROJECTIONS

ABS

a

ooo

>

aA

92

o 9090

39.5

93

o 9090

at

a4

eo 090

42.5

95

o 000


ENG

Baaaaahdaoadaoaa

fi
a
aaa

L-4T

rereercrrreree

rc
fl

.

=

L-4D
L-4D
L-40
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4To

eee
ob ababab
4 a0

i]

errrece ve

seeeeeeseceecccrrrr

IBOAARAHDAHRAAAAAAAAAD

cID

78
98
98
98

. 140

140
140
140
140
78
98
98
98
140
140
70
70
70
70
70
70
45
45
45
200
250
250
200
171
171
174
171
171
171
234
234
231
231
231
231
231
255
255

are

BRK OBBGOBBOODRBOO eH WO DENNNYNNVOWDHDAVWVUWUAAAY

FEROWWOWWUNNNNNNYDSAWOOO #22 ee eNNaw ee NNNNN eam

BD TR DR MPG

HE’ M F 32
FA M F 33
FA M F 32
HE M F 32
FA R 23
FA F 26
HE A F 25
H M R 24
HS M R 24
HE A F 32
FA A F 33
HE A F 32
Hs M R 32
FA R 23
FA F 26
FA A F 50
F A F 5O
HE A F 50
FA A F 50
FA F 50
HE A F 50
S AF 48
Ss A F 60
S A F 60
F A R 20
B AR 19
x AR 19
F A R 20
FA F 26
FOA F 28
H A R 20
HS A R 20
xX A R 28
xS A R 26
A A R 22
B A R 26
Cc A R 26
—£ A R 26
xX A R 22
XS A R 22
XS AR 26
B A R 22
Cc A R 22
FO A R 99

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
FORD

LAST UPDATE 12-18-80
(UNITS X1000)

CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS

20 22 24 26 27° «27.5 29° «30.5 32 33.5 35 36.5 38 «439.5 41 42.5

719 80 81 82 83 B84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
oO ce] 29 34 161 185 215 205 195 155 140 100 100 100 100 100 100
ie) oO ie) 144 120 150 155 150 135, 95 75 75 75 7s 75 75 75

58 86 144 oO oO oO ie oO ° oO oO oO oO oO ie oO oO
fo) fe) 29 129 273 315 335 325 265 225 225 125 125 125 125 7s 25

29 204 229 fe] fe] oO oO oO oO oO oO oO ° ie) ie fe Q
° ce] fe 303 294 276 276 274 146 fe) oO oO oO ie) oO Le} fo
oO fo) 144 144 68 ce) fe) ie) oO oO Le} oO ie) ie) oO oO fe)

09 109 oO Lo) fo) oO oO fe] ° oO fe to) ie] fe] ° Lo] Le)

18 173 173 ° fo} oO fe} fe] fo} o te} fe] oO °o ie oO ce)
Le) oO oO 74 75 90 100 110 120 160 175 175 175 175 175 175 175
oO oO ie) fo) 24 35 4s 50 65 105 125 125 425 125 125 125 125
fe oO ie) 87 95 110 115 125 135 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175
°o 4s 86 oO ie) oO oO oO oO oO °o ce) fe) ce) ° ° °

29 58 115 oO oO oO ° te] oO te) oO ce) fe) oO fe oO oO
oO oO Le 120 130 145 145 150 + 150 oO oO ie] oO oO oO oO fe)
oO ce) oO oO ie) oO ° o' 50 75 89 85 105 95 85 75 75
oO ° oO ce) ie) oO ° oO 75 75 80 70 50 90 80 70 70
oO oO ce) oO oO 70 ss 50 40 25 25 6q 69 69 69 69 69
oO oO oO °o ce] oO ce] oO oO oO 20 30 sO 60 70 80 80
oO fe oO oO oO ce) °o Oo oO ce) 20 30 50 60 70 80 80
ce) ce) fe] ce) oO ° 15 20 30 50 50 65 65 65 65 65 65
oO oO oO oO 0° oO ° oO sO uA) 75 100 180 230 230 280 330
ie) oO ° Le oO oO oO 0 fe) 100 181 266 266 271 351 396 406
oO fo fe) ° oO oO fe) oO 0 oO oO 15 30 50 70 100 140

87 187 194 oO oO o oO ° fe) oO ° oO oO ce] oO oO oO
4 135 oO oO oO ce) fe fo oO oO oO oO Oo oO oO oO oO

68 168 Lo} fe] oO oO ce] oO ce) ie) ie) oO ° oO oO oO oO
oO Oo 194 oO ie) ° oO oO fo oO oO oO ce) oO oO ie) oO
ce) ie oO 194 194 194 194 194 oO fo) fe) fe) ° oO oO fo) fo)
fe) fe oO 0 oO oO ie) oO 194 194 194 194 175 150 150 150 100

10 ° Le} o ce] ce] Le ° ° Q oO oO fe} fo) me) ie] oO

22 ° 939 oO oO oO ° oO oO Le} ie) oO ° fe} ‘Oo QO oO
fo) ie) oO oO oO ce) oO °O oO 91 ot 91 75 sO iste) ° oO
ie) oO ce) oO oO oO ce) ° ° 50 50 25 25 25 25 oO oO
oO ce) oO 108 mW St 35 oO oO oO oO oO oO ie) oO oO ie)
fo) ie) fe) oO oO fe) oO 70 70 70 50 50 25 oO ° oO oO
ce) fe) ce) fo oO oO ie) 75 75 75 50 50 25 oO ie) 0 oO
oO ie) Le} ce) ce) ° oO 64 64 64 50 50 25 fe} oO ie) oO
oO fe) oO 95 95 64 48 oO fo oO oO oO oO 9 oO oO ie)
oO oO ce) 14 14 14 oO oO oO oO oO oO oO oO ie)
ce) oO fe} oO oO oO fe) 231 231 231 150 125 100 100 oO oO °
oO 46 84 110 84 58 42 Oo fo oO ° fe oO ° oO oO fo)
oO 46 54 i7 97 64 48 ie) fo} oO oO ° oO oO ce] oO fe
n AG St 100 78 52 36 oO oO oO ° fe) oO ° fe oO oO

- ~ . a a a oO °


6.

There would be no serious alternative for the internal combustion
engine until 1990. The only serious alternate would be the birth of the
electric or hybrid electric car for cummuting purposes.

Our fundamental assumptions applying to all scenarios were:

lL

2.

3.

4

5.

6.

CAFE standard will increase by 1.5 mpg per year starting 1986 to reach
35 mpg in 1990 and 42 mpg in 1995.

Emission standards will be met by all engines in the scenario including

diesel engines.

Reconfiguration to FWD with downsizing would lead to a 28% to 39%

fuel economy improvement.

Diesel engines provide an increase of 15% to 20% in fuel economy over
a comparable gas engine.

Turbocharging improves performance without improving or penalizing
fuel economy.

GASAHOL will be used in limited applications--up to 10% by 1995.

Scenario Assumptions for Gompanies

1

aa
Scenario Assumptions p) AMC

a. Renault cars will be weight reduced when U. S. production begins in
1983.

b. Pacer dropped in 1980.

c. 258 and 232 l-6 engines weight reduced in 1980.

iy

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


ENG CID
L-4 89
L-4 97
L-4 97
u-4 97
L-4 97
.-4° 97
t-4D0 90
t-40 90
t-40 «690
L-4D 90
L-4TO 90
L-4TD 90
L-4TD 90
L-4TD 90
L-4T0 90
HO-4 697
HO-4 120
B-BUS
C-CONVERTIBLE
D-DASHER
U-JETTA
R-RABBIT

$-SCIROCCO

Nae ne enn nnns

Lt B80 TR OR MPG 79

caununauaaauaaaaan

DoOuxcogancosunconr

PRESSE ZRESTTETSTPOP YP Sy

28 «675
27 °
27 10
28 °
27)—~«
27 20
40 oO
46 10
46 °
46 50
40 °
46 oO
46 oO
46 °
46 °
26 "1
19 18

DH rAMAAAANAAAAARAATA

TOTAL: 285

20

80

50
4
10
16
50
20

odo

100,

aooo0000

285

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO

24

82

30
"
10
8
so
20
°
10
8
95
°
oO
oO
25
fe)
°
18

285

BY ENGINE SIZE

CAFE STANDARDS

26

83

30
"1
10
6
50
10
fo
10
5
85
°
°
5
35
10
°
18

285

vw

27° 27.5
84 85
50 50
"1 Ww
10 5
6 5
° oO
10 10
oO 9
5 5
5 5
as 75
° fo
5 10
5 6
65 75
10 10
° °
18 9
285 285

LAST UPDATE 12-18-80
(UNITS X1000)

N
©

cy
o

“a
=96

~
aguagawoud

3

285

=
noana

30.5

o
x

mas
26

o
oounououn

oe
Q

a)
“3

o
ouadgnououn

=O os
oouunag

285

33.5

o
ounnwoooun

3

no
ecoon

285

w
a

o
fo)

=n
aa

wounnoooun

3

yo
ocoom

285

36.5

a1

=n

oSunooouu-8

10

38

© =- ©
Nn

wouannwoooungan

3

no
eoo00n

285

CAFE PROJECTIONS

39.5

93

o - ©
GHovwWunnowooNKHed

Q

ooo

285

94

SoS8unooouura

yo
eo00oun

285

42.5

95

w8uncoouunro0

3

0088a


B.

Scenario Assumptions

The scenarios for a passenger car fleet were based on the following

technological assumptions:

L

2.

3.

4,

5.

Energy conservation would still be the driving force during the eighties

and the nineties for lack of a well-defined energy production policy.

Long before the $2.50 per gallon price level, consumers’ demands for

economy cars will override the standards mandated by Congress.

f}

EPA would maintain their 1985 standards on HC, CO, and NO# bet
i it i i Usive evidence

R

Technology would solve the emission and particulate standards and the
diesel engine will be a significant percentage of the market.

Diesel fuel oil will be made available by the refineries from crude oil or
synthetic process. The recent publications of both the American
Petroleum Institute and the Society of Automotive Engineers support
this assumption. Briefly stated, the present average production mix for
U. S. refineries is referred to by the ratio of 2.1 parts gasoline to 1 part
distillates. At this ratio, diesel fuel produced by U S. refineries equals
28,600,000 gallons a day. To make larger amounts of diesel fuel, it
would be necessary to expand certain processing units. At a ratio of
0.7, these additions could theoretically require a total of plant
investment $85 million. However, production of distillates would
increase by 75%.

Given the production mix of the scenario the U. S. car population of
1995 could consist of approximately 60% gasoline vehicles and 40%
diesel vehicles. This car population could be fueled by U. S. crude oil
refineries at an economically feasible production level of 0.7 parts

gasoline to 1 part distillate referred to previously.

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


SCENARIO/LANCIA (07/30/80)

€NG CID L 8D TR DR MPG

L-@ 1222.0 1 A R 21 1000

l-4 ° 1222.0 2 aA R 39
TOTAL:

1 -BETA

2 -ZAGATO

20
Ao
300
600
1500

22
At
800
700

1500

24 26 27

{S00

VFHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARTO
BY ENGINE SI7E
LANCIA

CAFE STANDARDS

27.5 29

62 Lk faa 65 a6

700 600 400 300 200
800 8=6300

4100 1200 1300

1500 1500 1500 1500

30.5

ar

1500

1800

3:37 PM TUESDAY,

32°«33.5
eA 89
o oO
oO o
o o

35

30

oO
ie]

AUGUST 12,

1$60

CAFE PROJECTIONS

36.5

ot

°
i)

aA

92

o
o

39.5

93

oO
o

at

94

oo

42.5

95

oo


requirements. Using the automotive market models of Data
Resources, Inc., Rath & Strong will run future demand
scenarios as a basis for projecting required quantities of

materials.
Task 2 -- Recycling Study

Rath & Strong will provide limited general assistance
to CRA in its study of recycling, such as providing any
literature on the recycling of platinum which Rath & Strong
already has on hand.

Task 3 -- Replacement Study

Rath & Strong will analyze replacement of one material
for another in pollution control equipment to the extent such
substitutions are revealed by and related to the analysis of
material requirements for different emission control systems
in Task 1. Rath & Strong will assist CRA engineers in assessing
various further substitution possibilities, and will provide
general assistance such as guiding CRA to knowledgeable industry
sources of information.

ARTICLE II
DELIVERABLE ITEMS

1. Monthly Progress Reports

During the period of performance of this subcontract,
Rath & Strong will provide monthly progress reports
within eight (8) days of the preceding month. If
requested, this information will be in writing.


Company: Ford

Vehicles

Cars - USA

Constant
Volume Total

Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A.

Light Trucks
USA

Constant
Volumé Total

Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A.

Total USA
Cara & Light
Trucks

Total N.A.
Cars & Light
Trucks

*R & S Forecast

Mat'l MS

PT = 5748
PA = 5749
RO 1936
PT 5748
PA 5749
RO 1936
PT 5748
PA = 5749
RO 1936
PT 5748
PA 5749
RO 1936

1980

5441920

2320780
tt)

2090000

1536000

2385071

1017146

0

916000

715000

7826991
3337926
tt)

5861130
2499558
0

1981

5133040
2186360
0

1705000

2249696
958232
0

680000

7382736
3144592
oO

587560
2494961
0

1982

4158000
1298000
286000

1875000

1822358
568884
125347

900000

5980358
1866884
411347

5520790
1723421
379737

CRA
CRITICAL MATERIALS

(in grams.)

1983

4158000
1288000
270160

1975000

1822358
568884
118405

1000000

5980358
1866884
388565

5918684
1847631
384558

1984

4033260
1259060
251900

2025000

1767687
551818
110402

1000000

5800747
1810878
362302

5837613
1822324
364596

1985

3991680
1246080
242880

2075000

1749464
546129
106449

1030000

5741144
1792209
349329

5930224
1851234
360834

1986

3991680
1246080
242880

2195000

1749464
546129
106449

1040000

5741144
1792209
349329

6178510
1928741
375941

Est.
1987

3825360
1194160
234960

1690000
*

1676569
523373
102978

600000

5501929
1717533
337938

4191423
1308433
257444

1990


tomotive Aftermarket News Show Daily, March 10, 1981

stributors Institute speaker

any foreign car manufacturers
n't meet U. S. CAFE averages

RAKE HOTEL—Roy Lindgren, part-
‘in the Boston-based automotive consult-

firm of Rath & Strong, ‘told members
the Distributors Institute during the first
sion of this organization's Spring mcet-
here, that many foreign car manufactur-
do not have at this time a car ficet cap-

able of mecting the U.S. Government Cor-
porate Average Fuct Economy (CAFE)
fequirements that all U.S. car manufactur-
ers have spent billions of dollars to mect.

Flatly predicting that the mighty General
Motors “will cat the Japanese alive” a few
years down the road with its brilliantly

W tleet of cars designed to average
erably more than 27.5 miles per
gallon by 1985, Lindgren emphasized that
development might have a profound cffect
upon the car buying public when the gas
mileage truth becomes apparent.

US. CAFE. requirements, noted Lind-
gen, progress from 20 miles per gallon on
a eet average basis in 1980 to 27.5 miles
on the same average basis in 1985.

According to Lindgren, computer pro-
iections clearly show that few European
and Japanese car manufacturers can meet
that standard with present fleets.

Although conceding that foreign car
manufacturers still have time to retool for
iv new line of cars that could meet such
standards, Lindgren cited the tremendous
s involved that have already
dealt severe financial blows to every U.S.
car manufacturer.

Using the G. M. car line as a comparison
standard, Lindgren reviewed the vanous
makes and models of both U.S. and foreign
vehicles to, prove his claim.

Conceding that the Japanese have had
everything their way up to date, Lindgren
pomnted out some very difficult’ problems
that car manufacturers in Japan will have
to face once rral Motors places all of
ity bnes of fuel-efficient cars on the market.

When that furally happens, this consul-
tant noted, we might see some very drama-
tac changes in car buying habits

Ford Motor Company,said Lindgren. is
one entire downsizing step behind General
Motors. This will mean that they will sul-
fer greatly before they catch up. From a
product line standpoint, Lindgren said,
Chrysler is actually in a better position
because it has already completed its major
downsizing step. All future Chryster cars
will be built on the K-car chassis utilizing
engines and drivelines from these vehicles.

AMC, said Lindgren, 1s depending upon
Renault, and will base all of its future
vehicles on this company’s lines.

According to Lindgren, the increased use
of plastics in GM automobile bodies, the
introduction of more four and three c:
dec power plants, all designed with fucl in-
jection, electronically controlled ignitions
and fucl management systems, and installed
in cars with total weights of around 2,000
pounds, will make General Motors cars the
acknowledged winners of the mileage race.

Vhe Japanese car manufacturers won't
be in a position to compete with fleet aver-
ages that General Motors will be able to
generate, says Lindgren, and we may see
some teal changes in the market place.



RATH & STMRONG INC. GMC-A SCENARIO

INVESTMENT SUMMARY REPORT BY YEAR

YEARS

1979
1980
198]
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

TOOLING & EQUIPMENT

TOTAL INVESTMENTS

10280899

SCALE = 1000

INVESTMENTS

0
356649
2384450
1872625
413442
719558
896762
796115
374237
777544
562319
698550
375840
52808
0

0

MPG.

85

27.

90
5 35.0

95
42.5



SCENARIO/FUUT (07/31/80) 3:35 PM TUPSDAY, AUGUST 12, 1980

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCFNARTO
AY ENGINE SIZE
Fuul (SURARU)
CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS
20 «22 24 26 27° (27.5 29° (30.5 32 33.5 35 36.5 38 39.5 4142.8
ENG CID L BO TRDR MPG 79 foot a2 a2 AS 86 a7 AR ag 90 09 92 93 o 95

HO-4 0 971.6 1 M F 3F 60 60 63 65 65 70 6 aS 93 o o Qo o o o oO o

Wo-4 971.6 2 A F 30 30 33 35 38 40 40 3A 30 23 ° o o o o ° ed °

wo-4 '971.6 39 M 4 27 38 35 30 25 23 18 15 9 12 fe) oO oO ° oO oO oO °
TOTAL: 128 128 428 128 128 128 178 12a 128 fe) o o o oO ° °o °

1 -OL

2 -GL

2 -BRAT


5.

6.

Scenario Assumptions for Honda

a.

b.

Cc.

d.

e

Cars will be built eventually in the U. S.
Produce or buy diesel engines.

Fleet sales for 1985 as follows:

(1) 100% FWD

(2) 100% 4-cylinder gas engines

(3) 15% Turbocharged engines

Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:

(1) 70% 4-cylinder gas engines
30% 4-cylinder diesel engines

(2) 20% Turbocharged engines
Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:

(1) 30% 4-cylinder gas engines
70% 4-cylinder diesel engines

(2) 20% Turbocharged engines

Scenario Assumptions for VW

a.

b.

c

Cars will eventually be U. S. built except engines will be imported.

Rabbit will be redesigned in 1984.

Bus get diesel engine in 1985.

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


0190 - 417:

SRR We eet GI tatty Sip Ree Re Aa et ee et let Se}:

Management News and Technical Developments in the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Industry

Electric Vehicle Progress

published by the Downtown/Urban Research Center
170 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 Telephone (212) 889-5666

Plugging Into The Future: An Interview With Leroy H. Lindgren

"I try to put myself in the future and look backwards into the present,"
Leroy H. Lindgren, Vice President of Rath & Strong, management consultants, says.
"This separates me from the econometrics school which can only think about the
future in terms of the past."

Mr. Lindgren, who's in charge of new product development for Rath § Strong,
aired his vision of the automobile's future in an exclusive EV Progress interview.
He has developed a computer model of the American automobile industry which analyzes
the impact of Government regulations and technical requirements on the industry.

EVs, says Lindgren, enter the American auto industry's future largely by virtue of
the CAFE inclusion credit. General Motors will be the only one of the big three
mass producing EVs by 1990, he predicts. His Manufacturing Assessment Model and
System breaks down the 1990 GM passenger car types as follows:

Projected General Motors 1990 Passenger Car Fleet

Model: EV 's' J’ 'TM ‘At 'Kt 'C'

Weight: 1,500 * 1,700 2,200 2,700 3,000 3,500 3,700

MPG: 85-185* $2 43/45 25/35 22/28 22/28 22/28
=- ——~ c=

EV -- Two-passenger urban commuter car.

'S' -- Two-passenger urban car; possibly three-cylinder or diesel engine.

'J' -- Four-passenger family car; essentially chopped 'X'.

'X! -- Five-passenger family car; updated version of today's Citation,
Skylark, etc.

'A! -- Six-passenger family car; tomorrow's Malibu.

'K' -- Five-passenger luxury car; tomorrow's Seville.

'C! -- Five-passenger personal car; tomorrow's Toronado, Eldorado, etc.

*MPG equivalency figure has not been finalized.

By 1990, the CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standard will probably
be pegged at 35 mpg. "At that CAFE level, GM's going to have problems,"’ Lindgren
began, "because the 'J' car will be the center of the car population, and they'll
have to be producing a lot of 'S' cars to meet the requirement.” The following
graph was produced to illustrate his point.

“The lower mpg cars are much more profitable than those little 'S' cars.
But if you want to optimize profits, then you have to make fewer of the 'S' cars and
make the 'X' car the center of the ‘car population, not the 'J'."" The shaded bars of
the graph show this method. How is General Motors going to accomplish this shift?
The electric car has the option of shifting this profile. It won't be built with

-4-


d. Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:

(1) 95% FWD
5% RWD (Bus)

(2) 30% 4-cylinder gas engines
70% 4-cylinder diesel engines

(3) 20% Turbocharged engines

e. Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:

(1) 100% FWD

(2) 15% 4-cylinder gas engines
85% 4-cylinder diesel engines

(3) 20% Turbocharged engines

f. Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:

(1) 5% 4-cylinder gas engines
95% 4-cylinder diesel engines

(2) 20% Turbocharged engines

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


—NG CID

110
110
110
300
300
300
300
302
351
351
351
351
400
400
400
400

i-]

verre rer euee

Da

e<ceeeececcrrrerer
DBHONMOOHDBHAAAAa Dada

te

C -COURIER

AnoanGMAAUAN Ts =

DADHAZBHOBOOOOCO ROD

BD TR DR MPG

Cc M R 27
CX M F 27
CX M F 33
FIM R 22
F2 M R 22
Fo M R 22
Fa M R 22
F. A R 19
Fi A R16
F2 A R 16
F3 A R 16
F4 A R 16
F. AR 15
F2 AR 15
Fo, A R 15
Fa. AR 45

TOTAL:

F 1-RANCHERO ,F- 150,

F2-F-250
F3-F-350

F 4-ECONOL INE , CLUBWAGON

719

16

80

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
FORD-2WD TRUCKS

LAST UPDATE 12-23-80
(UNITS X1000)

CAFE STANDARDS

18 19 20 21 22 23
B81 B2 83 84 a5 86
15 35 50 10 120 220
oO ° ° ° ° °
o o o fo) ° °

125 160 190 210 225 215
25 55 85 105 120 110

16 46 76 96 ait 101
95 150 170 190 205 200
126 140 150 150 195, 70
W177 120 70 35 oO oO
82 70 40 20 oO oO
45 30 20 10 oO oO
160 110 65 30 ce) oO
15 ° ° oO o oO
15 oO fe oO o o
5 o fe) fo) oO oO
15 o- oO ° ° se]
916 916 916 916 916 916

24

87

440

170
70
70

145

eoooocKoN0

916

25

88

600

828800

ecoooo0o0coo

©
a

26

89

eooo9g0000

©
a

o

mM oooc090q000000000%0

o

N
a

2
°

CAFE PROJECTIONS

2

at

°

700
216

o

a oooco000000000C

29

92

oO

550

w
a
cy

m oo000000000000

30

93

°

400

a
oO

o

@ o000000000000

3

1

o
a

°

ix]
Q
°

o
a
a

©

m o900000000000

32

95

°

o
oy

o

@ oooocoooc0c0cooco


FURD PASSENGER CAR

ACTUAL

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
FORD 135 130 135 , 125 - - -
T-BIRD — 141 97 119 179 199 185 180
GRANADA 89 151 179 169 2604 120/1706 320
FAIRMONT 305 235 199 95/1403 285 280 275
PINTO/ESCORT 179 2971 380 379 360 75 375
EXP Eeieka - 711 169 155 170 180 180
MUSTANG 253 205 149 135 130 125 120
MERCURY 53 51 55 59 - - -
XR7 51 by 45 80 90 90 85
MONARCH/COUGAR 32 68 75 79 954 45/65 130,
ZEPHYR 113 76 §5 30/503 115 110 110
BOBCAT/LYNX 39 1931 140 140 130 140 140
LN-7 - 25l 50 50 60 65 65
CAPRI 75 64 45 45 40 40 49
LINCOLN 7 38 35 35 495 35 1107
MARK VI 39 43 49 49 69° 50 65/
VERSAILLES/ CONTINENTAL k - 402 35 - - -
TOTAL ee 1,535 1,705 1,875 1,975 2,025 2,075 2,195
1) ERIKA-FuD PINTO/BOBCAT REPLACEMENT
2) TOWN CAR "FOX" VERSAILLES Escour

3) TOPAZ-FHD

4) FRESH

5) NEW

5) TAURUS-FYD
7) TAURUS-FUD

11/18/89

FATRMONT/ZEPHYR REPLACEMENT BY FORMAL ERIKA 2-DR & 4-DR

"FOX" FORD/MERCURY REPLACEMENT
"FOX" LINCOLN/MARK VI

GRANADA/COUGAR MID-YEAR REPLACEMENT

"FOX" LENCOLN/MARK REPLACEMENT

BFC SALES PLANNING 12/5/80

REVISED PER 80E & PROGRAM 497

"INCLUDES LUXURY TOPAZ


IMPORT CARS - LIGHT TRUCK
PROJECTION BASED ON
MEETING THE CAFE STANDARDS
AND THE PROJECTED STANDARDS
BY
COMPANY
AND
MODEL
ASSUMING NO NEW TECHNOLOGIES
OR CONFIGURATION CHANGES TO
MEET USA CAFE STANDARDS

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


SCENARTO/UAGUAR (07/31/80) 3:36 PM TUESDAY, AUGUST 12, 1980

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
JAGUAR

CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS

20 22 24 26 27 «(97.5 29° «30.5 320«33.5 35° 36.5 38 39.5 41 42.6

ena ciD t BD TROR MPG 79 RO at 42 a3 a4 AS 86 a7 aR a9 90 ot 92 93 94 95

L-6 258

4.2 § A&R 16 2 ° 0 ° o oO o ° o o ° ° oO ° ce] ° °
v-12 3268.9 2 A R 11 1 ° oO o o o o o oO oO ° o ° ° ° ° o
v-t2 ‘(3268.3 3 a @ 11 ' °o o o to) o o o oO ° o ° o o ed o o
TOTAL: 4 o o o 0 o oO ce) o o o oO oO oO ° o oO
1 kU 6
2 -Ks 12

a-xU Ss


FINAL REPORT

CRITICAL MATERIALS SCARCITY
RECYCLING AND SUBSTITUTION STUDY

SUBCONTRACT
BETWEEN
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES INC.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02116
AND

RATH & STRONG INC.

21 WORTHEN ROAD
LEXINGTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02173

SUBCONTRACT NUMBER 501-1
UNDER
PRIME CONTRACT EPA NUMBER 68-03-2910

Rath & Strong, Inc.

Management Consultants



v-6T
v-6T
v-6D
v-6D
v-6D
v-6D
v-6D
v-6D
v-6D
V-6TD
v-6T0
v-6TD
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<<eeeeeccececceccecccececcceeccccce ce
goocooocos

234
231
173
173
173

“250

250
250
250
250
250
250
250
267
267
267
301
301
305
305
305
308
305

. 305

307
350
350
350
350
350
350
368
368
403
403
403
425
425
301
325
325
325
350
350
350
350

°)

A -MALIBU
AS-MONTE CARLO

B -IMPALA

AAKHPAATTITIAAADAAHMHUTUKHTAAHUNTTRSSSSSRSSDASSONNY
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> D>
Buany

>

AMAGDKMBAAMAK<MAROKAAMODAXTADNDS

C -NINETY EIGHT
D -FLEETWOOD
— -TORONADO
F
H

-CAMARO
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PPD PPPPEPPPE PEPE EE PEPE PEP PP PEPPERS PEPE PPP PEEP PEEP EEEDDD

29
23
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
31
at
34
at
20
20
19
20
20
19
19
13
18
19
19
19
16
16
16
16
16
14
19
19
15
15
14

13
20
25
25
25
23
23
23
23

ANMAAANADVADAAAARADDANDDADARADADADDARAAAAANAMNAAMN As

TOTAL:

13°

o °
o °
oO oO
oO co)
oO oO
ce) oO
oO o
ce) o
oO oO
ce) oO
oO ce]
fe oO
oO oO

362 A2t
429 429
131 431
87 87
go 99
395, 100
484 40
G7 67
142-142
16 16
136 fe
oO 100
806 355
106 140
40 40
226 126
444 °
28 38
oO 100
fo) 100
134 oO
47 oO
"1 to)
247 9
s4 oO
oO 226
oO °
ce] °
oO fe}
fe] 739
oO 320
oO 64
ie) 254
5700 5700

wo

eoo9000o90coco0osze

—_ae
QONN
=O-

87

J -MONZA(FWD)

K, -SEVILLE
OP-OPEL

<xKan

-COMMUTER CAR
-CHEVETTE
-NOVA(RWO)
-CITATION(F WN)
-CORVETIC

° 50 100 100 160
38 38 38 38 38
25 so 75 75 100
25 50 75 7s 100
25 50 75 75 100

° 25 50 50 7s

Oo 25 50 so 7s

° ° oO oO sO

oO ie) oO ce) 50

fe) ° 20 50 50

ie) ie) 20 50 50

oO oO fe) 0 ie)

ie) ie) 9 ce) oO

421 424 te) ° oO
429 429 oO ce) ie)
131 oO oO fe] fe
87 ° ce ° °
99 ie) oO ° ce]

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{o} ° ° ° °

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° ° io] ° (0)

fe} oO ie) QO ie)

100 (o) ° oO oO

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° oO to) ° {o)

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fe] oO ce) fe) ce)

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° ° ° ° (o)

° ° ° ° o)

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150 100 fo to) °
221 fe) oO °o fe)

32 787 #787 S87 oO
252 552 652 532 te)
700 ° o ° oO
300 oO oO fo) oO

32 oO oO oO fe)
200 i) co} to) ()

5700 5700 5700 5700 5700

ec0c00090 cco Oo O00 DO0000000000009903300

5700

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5700

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5700

a
x
8 foMo Ro RoRoRoRoMo Ro Ro RoR oko koko noko Ro doko kode kokokokokokokok- koko)

50

261
261
261

aa88aa8s

foRo Ro No Ro Moko Ro Ro Ro Ronen oko ko No noko koko koko eo Nokonokokokokokoko ke)

3

eceoooooogoooCCCCOCOCOCOCOCOOOCCCOCNNCSNOOS

5700

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5700

a
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8 eVP9E00DDDIPCACDCCONONC OOOO NOOOCOCON OO OCNNOOOOO

°

185
185
185

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CODdDDADDDGCINIONOOCNOONONNO OOOO NO OOOOO OO OOO oOuUuNOO UMM

8


egecooo00000000000
eooCOOOOOOCOOCOOCOO
ecscoo9oooooooooeoo
eoceooooocooooooo0oN
eo0ono00OOCOCOOCCOOOO
ecoos00coooooCooo0o
eoooooooooOoCCoooo
eooonoooooooooo0ooo
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eooocooooooooeooo0oKe
eooccooocoooooc0o0ooo
eosooooocoooooooooo
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cas

RlHSSROCOEZOO COCO

TeOMnwMMwroNeMsNOR

RMU KONA -NORKORNHK AN
TAN

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<DOWUNxNnenOWaNUWO
mx <4

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SSSSsssseneessgse

PPPHemHcHDnDaDDAAA
SSad5sssssssgssss

2090 2090 2090 2090 2090 2090 2090 2090 2090 2090 2090 2080 2090 2030 2090 2090 2090

TOTAL:

° 4
eu <
= = o
or w
2s eo
co hb 2 guas
w 2 Gar 2ra~
O,5 zreodaaa
ZOEXaENOREKEZN
ese zZeruozuess
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sReOEZuuwAZOGS
Terr tree ee a
no <ul ry
qemoOwunTTInxx


SCENARIO/NISSAN (07/30/80)

Hf

cer rerenn
A®*aaaaaad

wauaune

cio t 80 TR OR MPG

76
6s
es
ou
19
1t9
146
168
168

NNNNNe eee
aeaqounaan

-210

310

-310

°200 SX
610

-280 2x
-280 ZX 242

NAURUaNS =

PPrrPrrezreE

33
32
30
30
26
25
23
21

18

peanessanaa

TOTAL:

19

°o
To
70
7
50
80
50
40
"35,

472

20

"0

25
70
70
7
so
70
so
30
30

472

22

45
10
10
WW
so
60
50
25
25

472

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO

CAFE STANDARDS

24

82

60
65
85
82
4s
4s
40
25
25

472

BY ENGINE SIZE
NISSAN (DATSUN)

26

a3

18
65
eT
85
35
4s
30
25
25

472

27

100
60
67
es
30
35
25
25
25

412

27.6

AS

100
$5
97
9s
25
25
25
25
25

412

29

a6

125
55
7
95
25
25
25
25

472

30.5

a7

200
so
aq
a5
25
25

472

3:9 PM TUESDAY,

472

33.5

472

a
x

N 09000000

35

90

oe ae9000900000

AUGUST 12,

19860

CAFE PROJECTIONS

36.8

on

o 690000000

3A

92

eo e900000000

39.5
93

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42.5

o 0900000000


Company: Ford

3 WAY MONOLITHIC CATALYST 63 CID

Part

Converter Assembly
Shell
Rings (No.)
Inlet Cone
Outlet Cone
Inlet Pipe
Flanges
Mesh
Hardware
Substrates (2) - Ceramic
Washcoat :
oO, Substrate
Platinum
Palladium
Nox Substrate
Washcoat
Rhodium (L6, V6 - V8)

Rhodium L4
Washcoat

Description
Material

409SS
409SS
4098S
409SS
409SS
409SS

MS

3920
3920
3920
3920
3920
3920

409SS

Steel
Ceramic
ALO,

Ceramic

AL»03

RATH & STRONG

INCORPORATED

5789

420
5747
5835

5748
5749
5747
5835
1936

1936
5835

wT

20.61
6.47
2.70
1.35
1.35
1.35

34
251
214
3.10
-10
Ibs. grams
1.88
+59
3.10

-10
17

-10


Z

cio

196
196
198
198
304
304
345
345

Tren
oo

<e<cececrrerr
,
DONMAAHdad

T1-TERRA
12-scouT

t BO TR OR MPG) 79

3.2 1f M R 20 67
3.212 M R 20°) 76
3.2 It M R 30 25
3.212 M R 30 41
5.0 If A R 16 195
5.012 A R 16 739
5.7 If A R 15 48
5.712 A R 15 185

TOTAL: 1376

11, TRAVELER

16

80

67
76
25
at
195
739
48
185

1376

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE

INTERNATIONAL-2WD TRUCKS

LAST UPDATE 12-23-80
(UNITS X14)

CAFE STANDAROS

18 19
Bt 82
100 175
100 175
15 163
116 163
200 100
745 600
oO fo)
te) oO
1376 1376

20

83

185
185
215
216
100
475

1376

21

84

185
185
240
316

75
375,

1376

22
85
175
175,
291
360

325,

1376

23

86

125
125
366
435

25
300

1376

24

87

125
125
366
500

25
235

1376

25

100
100
391
5as

25
175

1376

26

89

75
75
416
655
25
130

1376

27

90

50
S50
441
720
25
30

1376

CAFE PROJECTIONS

28

91

25
25
466
77S
25
60
ie)
oO

1376

29

92

25
25
461
920
10
15
fo)

oO

1376

30

93

31

94

o eocaq0000

32

95

oe’ o90000000


SCENARIO/BMW (07/30/80) 3:33 PM TUFSMAY, AUGUST

#2, 1GR0
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
RY FNGINE SI7E
aMw
CAFE STANDARDS CAFE PROJECTIONS

20 22 24 26 27° (27.5 29 «30.8 320«93.5 35° 38.5 328° «39.5 40 42.5

ENG cIoO tL 80 TR DR MPG 79 60 At a2 83 Aa as AG a? 8R aq 90 91 92 93 94 9s
108 1.8 1 & R 23 oO 7 26 o oO oO o ° fe) o ed °o ° ° ° ° °
429:2.0 8 A R 22 12 ° o o °o o o o ° ° oO oO ° oO ° ° °
1702.8 2 A R 20 9 9 9 oO oO oO oO o o ° oO ° o ° oO ed °
196 3.2 3 A R 17 7 5 o ce) ° o ° ° oO o oO ° ° o ° ° °
196 3.2 4 A R 16 7 4 o o o o o oO Qo ° oO o fe} Oo o ° oO

TOTAL: 35 35 35 oO oO oO 0 oO oO oO o te) oO o oO o oO

4 +3201

2 +5281

2 -6361

4 -7331


Company: Chrysler, Ford, AMC, and GM

0, MONOLITHIC START CATALYST 43 CID

2

Description

Part Material MS WT
Converter Assembly Assembly 4.880
Shell Rings 409SS 3920 2.000
Mesh 409SS 5789 -250
1/O Cones 409SS 3920 -750
Washcoat AL, 0, 5835 -10
Hardware Steel 420 «250
Heat Shield Aluminum 6202 1.000
Substrate Ceramic 6077 +530

grams
Platinum 5748 1.08
Palladium 5749 047

RATH & STRONG

INCORPORATED


Charles
River |
Associates

The following material was submitted by subcontractor Rath & Strong,
in support of their projections of U.S. consumptions of platinum-group
metals for vehicular emissions control, as discussed in Chapter 3 of
the main project report prepared by Charles River Associates.



Cc.

d.

g-

h.

An electric vehicle will be introduced in 1985 with an MPG credit
of 185 MPG. The GM forecast is to produce 200,000 EV by 1990.

4-cylinder engines were optimized rather than diesels and 6-

cylinder engines.

CAFE would be 27.5 MPG in 1985, 35.0 MPG in 1990, and 42.5 MPG
in 1995.

Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:

(1) 50% 4-cylinder gas engine (1984-3-cylinder-1.5L-gas engine)
10% 4-cylinder diesel engine (1984-V5-2.7L-diesel engine)
15% 6-cylinder gas engine
20% 6-cylinder diesel engine
5% 8-cylinder diesel engine

(2) 17% Turbocharged engine
Fleet sales for 1990 as follows:
(1) 46% 4-cylinder gas engine - 3 cylinder gas engine
40% 4-cylinder diesel engine
10% V6-cylinder diesel engine - V5-cylinder diesel engine
4% Electric Vehicles
(2) 22% Turbocharged engines
Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(1) 37% 4-cylinder gas engine - 3-cylinder gas engine
50% 4-cylinder diesel engine
5% V6-cylinder diesel engine - V5-cylinder diesel engine

8% Electric Vehicles

(2) 15% Turbocharged engines

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


THO METHODS POR GENERAL MOTORS TO MEET 1990 CATT the idea of changing the entire coun-

try's whole vehicle population, or as a
O titneve eve, ota co | COMpetitor to any of these cars --
trees tote ots" care. | because it's not -- but because of the
E . able ma 3" car central. | CAFE inclusion. Through the CAFE
2 ~ G visa tv create, soe ce | inclusion and by building, say, 200,000
: md x cat amma. ee | EVs a year, the curve shifts toward the
i v Loewe eacclen. | additional profitability they're aiming
"le - 4 |e for. That's their master plan, and
tg? rs it's an exquisite plan. General Motors
ict : z is the only one of the big three that
ev s : a K ¢ has in practice met the challenge of
movers the CAFE standards. EVs, consequently,

won't be built by either of the other two. GM is the only one that's going to
benefit from the CAFE EV credit.

"So GM will be mass producing EVs by 1990. Wé have to decide first what
configuration ought to be picked. It's got to be around 1,500 pounds, something
like that. It can't be any more than that. It's got to be a two-passenger vehicle.
If they try to make it any bigger, then it'll compete with the 'S' car, and you can
put a diesel or a three-cylinder engine in the 'S'. Then there would be a head-on
collision between the EV application and its benefit to the profile shift. If we
knew exactly what the EV credit was going to be, then I'd be able to determine
exactly what the profile shift would look like. Right now all this graph provides
is illustration."

"Another reason why the EV looks so good to GM is to improve their econ-
omies of scale. All of the GM 1990 cars, except the 'S' will use, for example, the
same transmission. And pushing that profile over even a little toward the 'X'...the
difference in profitability is just staggering. They're not going to accept such a
high proportion of small cars. They just aren't."

"Now, of course, the data is around to show that there is a place for the
EV in the real world, if you're looking for urban-type travel. And you can't argue
with these data: the 27 miles a day, the five trips, and so forth. But, I'm in
favor of the hybrid concept because, remember, mobility is still the number one
priority. [DOT defines the "reinvention" of the automobile in terms of these prior-
ities: (1) Mobility; (2) Energy; (3) Emission; (4) Safety; (5) Noise; (6) Life
Cycle Cost.] With a hybrid, you can get regenerative, you can use a little computer
to optimize the energy use, and you can get DC to AC conversion, as in the Exxon

hybrid."

And what about the Garrett Flywheel hybrid? "I don't see the flywheel
concept at all. It's a technology that is rather crude -- crude in the sense that
it harks back to the days when I was a mechanical engineer in school. And the only
way that you got yourself any power in those days was to get yourself a big flywheel
and spin the damn thing in order to get the inertial effect of the MV-squared.
Well, so they decided that they'd get the effect of the MV-squared, but they'd have
to go to very high speeds to get it because they didn't have a big enough space to
put the flywheel. And because of the tremendously high RPMs, there's the safety
question. Other than the flywheel design itself -- the fact that they made a fly-
wheel out of that Kevlar composite and not out of the traditional cast iron or
Steel -- there's nothing significant about the Garrett vehicle."

And the Exxon hybrid? "They've got a heck of an idea there. Unfortunate-
ly their program was, in a sense, an attempt to save the full-sized car. So they

-5-



PASSENGER CAR MARKET

NORTH AMERICAN

FORECAST
(x 1000)
CONSENSUS - SURVEY RATH & STRONG
Company’ 1980 1983 1985 1987
% % % %
SOM SOM SOM SOM

‘Ford 1,536 | 15 1,975 | 16 2,075 | 17 1,690 | 13 ||Competitive Fleet not Available!
GM 4,723 | 47 5,900 | 48 6,150 | 48 7,930 | 61 || Full Fleet and Electric
Chrysler 741 1,100 9 1,150 9 910 7 |) Limited to 3 Car Lines
AMG 185 225 2 250 2 130 1 || Selling Renaults
vw 197 2 425 3 550 4 520 4 || Growing Fleet
Honda - - 125 1 250 2 130 1 || Limited
Domestic Market} 7,382 74 9,750 | 79 | 10,425 | 82 || 11,310 87
Imports 2,549 | 26 2,600 | 21 2,275 | 18 1,690 | 13 || Foreign Imports Lost
Total - NA
Market 9,931 12,350 12,700 13,000

Assuming the Conservation Policy and Price of Gasoline will continue

to limit the imports from Europe and the USA small cars wil! reduce

the Japanese imports.



Charles
River _
Associates

Draft Final Report EPA-420-D-81-101

SCARCITY, RECYCLING AND SUBSTITUTION OF POTENTIALLY
CRITICAL MATERIALS USED FOR VEHICULAR EMISSIONS CONTROL
Subreport

Prepared for

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2565 Plymouth Road
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105

CRA #501

Prepared by

Rath & Strong

21 Worthen Road

Lexington, Massachusetts 02173

This report is a separately bound appendix to the CRA Draft Final Report.

RE



1

2.

LIGHT TRUCK SCENARIOS

The methodology used in generating the light truck scenario is generally the
same as was used in generating the automotive scenario except for the
following changes:

a. CAFE would be 22 mpg in 1985, 27 mpg in 1990, and 32 mpg in 1995.

b. 8- and 6-cylinder engines were optimized.

Scenario Assumptions for Companies

A. Scenario Assumptions for Chrysler

(1) FWD K-pickup introduced in 1984
FWD mini-pickup introduced in 1982 based on J-chassis

(2) Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:

(a) 22% FWD
78% RWD

(b) 69% gas engines
31% diesel engines

(3) Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:

(a) 47% FWD
53% RWD

(b) 29% gas engines
71% diesel engines

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


2. Scenario Assumptions for Chrysler

a.

b.

Body Type

Stays in business.

Strategy parallels GM.

(1) All cars reconfigured to FWD on K line by 1983.

(2) Introduce commuter car in 1989.

First Year With FWD

80 81 82 83 84

FK MK

* Omni will use K car components beginning in 1985.

c.

d.

e.

f.

Buy VW L-4 engines until 1981.

Import Mitsubishi cars and engines until 1984.

Produce own L-4 engine in 1982. (Mexico) (2.2)
Product L-4 engine. (Trenton, Michigan) (1.8)

Buy Peugeot L-4 diesel engine.

85

LK*
EK
RK

Produce own L-4 diesel engine in 1986 on a transfer line which will

be capable of producing both gasoline and diesel engines.

All cars will be weight reduced when they go to FWD.

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


L-4TD 135
L-4TD 135
L-47D 135
L-4TD 135
225
225
225
225
318
318
318
318
318
360

NN

ax
BRIER

Baer aanaaan

@WOD0OONNN BRD
a

m<EmMAEAM

GUNAanTvganvonn

seeeeerrer

-NEWPORT
-MAGNUM
ASPEN
-OMNI
-DIPLOMAT
M1-CHAMP

M2- ARROW
M3-SAPPARO

R -NEW YORKER
S -COMMUTER CAR
Y -IMPERTAL

zZeamo

PPP P>P PDD rPeeEsn

36
40
36
40
20
20
20
20
18
18
18
18
19
13

DADDDDAARAAAANTT

TOTAL:

os0o000

19t
13

58
62
165
54

950

ao
eoousongogdodo

N@
oom

950

ecoocoocoocoq0o00s

950

ecoooccoccoocos

©
g
°

0000000000050N

950

ecooo0oco000e

o
a
i}

eooog0o0000

950

eooo00000n0

950

eooo0o0cco0n0

950

eooo0o0ccoe

o
a
°

eoo00oo0o0o0o

950

WAND
000000000088a98

950

e000000000

950

e000000000

950

o
°o

Qe
oo

a
ecoo0c0000000

950


SUMMARY OF PRODUCTION

ASSUMING GENERAL MOTORS (ESTES FORECAST)
85 —- 31.0 MPG

WITH ELECTRIC VEHICLE (185 MPG CREDIT)

90 - 40 MPG

TT TT TT Ta eee]

95 — 50 MPG

Year | MPG | EV | S |X | UX | X | FX] AX | BX | CX | EX] KX
1985 | 310 | 50| 0| 957/1163|1439| 158/1152 | 325 | 200 | 64 | 154
1990 | 40.0 | 524] 675|1757| 941| 824] - | 749] 50 | 50 | 55 | 75
1995 | 50.0 | 1078 |1500| 1507 655 | “430 -/530} - | - | - |] -
Ld es ee SO



Task 2
Recycling Study

Rath & Strong has some doubts that a cost effective recycling procedure can be
developed. The current strategy of obtaining over 50,000 mile reliability in the
emission systems is probably more cost effective. The replacement costs of a
three-way catalyst will probably reach a $300 to $400 cost to customer.

Task 3
Replacement Study

Rath & Strong has worked on several emissions projects over the last 10 years
and has concluded that a substitute catalyst such as nickel shims or other similar
metal substrate will require a major redesign program in the automobile and light
truck industry. If a platinum (OPEC type) situation shortage occurs, we will be

faced with a major national environmental decision.

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


SCENARIO/FIAT (07/30/80)

Meaaone

CID Lt 80 TR OR MPG

719
ot
ot
122
122

NNeoe
Aaane

oouws

+128

Kt/9
“STRADA
“BRAVA
SPIDER 2000

PPrEeE

25
3t
32
25
25

anwae

rorTal:

79

"
10
1g
15
10

89

20
80

10
20
19
10

59

22

10
20
19
10

59

VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO

CAFE STANDARDS

24

82

o
10
20
19
10

59

BY FNGINE SI7E
FIAT

26

82

°
10
20
19
10

59

27

na

10
20
19
10

59

27.5

85

10
22
7
10

29

AG

10
28
"
10

59

30.5

AT

59

3:34 PM TUrSnay,

32

$9

33.5

ago

eo o00c90

35

90

9 990000

AUGUST

12,

1980

CAFE PROJECTIONS

36.5

at

o 990000

3A

o
N

o 090000

39.5

93

eo 0909000

94

eo e90000

42.5

98

eo o00090


put their DC to AC converter into a Cordoba, which weighed 4,200 pounds to begin
with, and added another 200 pounds by hybriding it. Nevertheless, it did go from 17
mpg to 27.5 mpg, which was a big, quantum jump two or three years ago. But then
they said, 'let's put a diesel in that Cordoba, a six-cylinder diesel, and see what
happens.‘ The diesel came in at 25 mpg, so the $600 worth of electronic equipment
doesn't really make much sense for two more mpg. Exxon has a whole lot of applica-
tions for the synthesizer which are non-automotive. I'm not sure whether they care
all that much whether their hybrid flies or not."

Getting back to EVs. It is your view that EVs are being legislated into
existence? "Yes, no question about it. If you'd wait for the 'real market' econo-
mies to take effect, they'd never be produced, but through the CAFE inclusion they
will. There's an additional legislative mechanism which, to my mind, will have an
impact on EVs. Large automobiles are going to be banned from all large center
cities. The only kind of vehicles which will be allowed there are two-passenger
models, such as the 'S' and electrics. There are a few reasons for this: air
pollution considerations -- and the 'S' will be exquisitely clean, the present
automobile fleet is an almost total misuse of urban space, and finally something has
to be done about the 1.3 passenger problem -- 1.3 passengers being the average
occupancy of an American automobile -- and the EV can and will make a significant
contribution in this area."


(4) Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:

(a) 93% FWD
7% RWD

(b) 4% gas engines
96% diesel engines

B. Scenario Assumptions for Ford

(1) RWD pickup in 1985 (Ranger)
FWD mini-pickup introduced in 1990

(2) Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:

(a) 100% RWD
(b) 100% gas engines

(3) Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:

(a) 100% FWD
(b) 100% gas engines

(4) Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:

(a) 100% FWD

(b) 11% gas engines
89% diesel engines

C. Scenario Assumptions for General Motors

(1) FWD mini-pickup introduced in 1988

RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED


MPG STANDARDS

Combined
2-Wheel Drive
4-Wheel Drive

CAFE

LIGHT TRUCK
1983 | 1984 1985
19 20 21
19.5 20.3 21.6
17.5 18.5 19.0



Company: GM and AMC

REDUCING 3 WAY PELLETED OXIDATION CATALYST 260 CUBIC INCHES

Description

Part Material MS WT
Converter Assembly Assembly 26.21
Outer Wrap 409SS 2792 8.00
Shell 409SS 3920 4.00
1/O Pipes 409SS 3920 2.50
Bed Support 409SS 3920 3.77
Insulation Fiber glass KZ1-6 1.50
Pellets (02) Alumina 5835 3.22

Ibs. grams

Platinum 5748 1.88

Palladium 5749 59
Nox Pellets Alumina 5835 3.22
Rhodium L6-V6-V8 1936 17
Rhodium L4 1936 -09

RATH & STRONG

INCORPORATED