UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION

Computation of 

“Recency” Criminal 

History Points

Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

August 2010
THE UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION

William K. Sessions III

Chair

Ruben Castillo

Vice Chair

William B. Carr, Jr.

Vice Chair

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Vice Chair

Ricardo H. Hinojosa

Commissioner

Beryl A. Howell

Commissioner

Dabney L. Friedrich

Commissioner

Isaac Fulwood, Jr.

Ex Officio

Jonathan J. Wroblewski

 Ex Officio

United States Sentencing Commission

One Columbus Circle, N.E.

Suite 2-500

Washington, DC 20002

www.ussc.gov

August 2010
Table of Contents

I. Introduction ......................................................... 1

II. Brief History of USSG §4A1.1 .......................................... 2

III. Results of Review of State Sentencing Guideline Systems ................. 7

A. Recency in the State Guidelines Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

B. Status in the State Guideline Systems and in the

District of Columbia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

IV. Public Comment on Recency to Commission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

V. Data Analysis: Application of Recency and Status in Fiscal Year 2009 . . . . . 12

A. Case Coding Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

1. Analysis of case coding project of USSG §§2L1.2 and 2K2.1

offenders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2. Analysis of case coding project of USSG §2L1.2 cases . . . . . . . . . 17

3. Analysis of coding project of USSG §2K2.1 cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

B. Association with Below-Range Sentences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

C. Recidivism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

D. Prison Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

VI. Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

i
I. Introduction

On May 1, 2010, the United States Sentencing Commission (Commission) submitted to

Congress an amendment that would eliminate the consideration of “recency” points provided

in subsection (e) of USSG §4A1.1 (Criminal History Category).1

 The amendment will become

effective November 1, 2010, absent congressional action to the contrary. This document

provides certain background information considered by the Commission, including a review of

the Commission’s original justification for including specific elements within the criminal

history score (USSG §§4A1.1(a-f)), a short summary of the recidivism research that supported

the use of the elements within the criminal history score, the results of a review of state

sentencing guidelines systems regarding their use of a recency component, a summary of public

comment and testimony received by the Commission, an examination of Commission data from

fiscal year 2009, and reanalyses of Commission recidivism data.

Section 4A1.1(e) constitutes one of four measures of criminal history under 

USSG §4A1.1, each of which contributes points to determine an offender’s criminal history

score. Subsections (a) through (c) provide that criminal history points are to be added based on

the length and type of prior sentences. Specifically, subsection (a) adds three points for

sentences exceeding one year and one month; subsection (b) adds two points for each sentence

exceeding 60 days, not counted under subsection (a); and subsection (c) adds points for

sentences not counted in (a) or (b). As discussed more fully below, an additional component of

criminal history, often referred to as “status,” is captured by subsection (d). Subsection (d) adds

two points if the defendant committed the instant offense while under any criminal justice

sentence, including probation, parole, supervised release, imprisonment, work release, or

escape status. 

The component of the criminal history score that is addressed by Amendment No. 5 and

therefore is the focus of this document is commonly referred to as “recency” and is provided for

in USSG §4A1.1(e). Under this provision, points are added if the defendant committed the

instant offense less than two years following release from confinement on a sentence counted

under USSG §4A1.1(a) or (b). Specifically, two points are added unless status points also apply,

in which case only one point is added for recency. Subsection (f) requires the addition of points

for certain crimes of violence not otherwise included above. In fiscal year 2009, USSG §4A1.1(e)

was applied in 14,548 cases, either alone (n=4,627) or in combination with USSG §4A1.1(d)

(n=9,921). Because the application of recency occurs more frequently when status applies, this

document discusses both subsections in order to provide an appropriate context.

Section 4A1.1(e) also interacts with some Chapter Two guidelines either because

criminal history is considered in the determination of the base offense level or in the application

of a specific offense characteristic. As discussed in Part II of this document, the application rate

of USSG §4A1.1(e) varies substantially across offenses. Recency points are added alone or in

1

 Sentencing Guidelines for United States Courts, 75 Fed. Reg. 27388-01 (May 14, 2010) (hereinafter Amendment 

No. 5).

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United States Sentencing Commission

combination with status in approximately one-third of the cases sentenced under USSG §2L1.2

(Unlawfully Entering or Remaining in the United States) and USSG §2K2.1 (Unlawful Receipt,

Possession, or Transportation of Firearms or Ammunition; Prohibited Transactions Involving

Firearms or Ammunition), two of the most frequently applied Chapter Two guidelines.2

 Section

4A1.1(e) applies substantially more often in cases sentenced under these two guidelines than

other Chapter Two guidelines.

II. Brief History of USSG §4A1.1 

The January 15, 1988, Guidelines Manual included the recency provision at USSG

§4A1.1(e), and the provision has changed little since then.3

 The current version of this

subsection is provided below:

(e) Add 2 points if the defendant committed the instant offense less than two

years after release from imprisonment on a sentence counted under (a) or (b) or

while in imprisonment or escape status on such a sentence. If 2 points are added

for item (d), add only 1 point for this item.

A corresponding Application Note (Note 5) explains —

5. §4A1.1(e). Two points are added if the defendant committed any part of

the instant offense (i.e., any relevant conduct) less than two years following

release from confinement on a sentence counted under §4A1.1(a) or (b). This also

applies if the defendant committed the instant offense while in imprisonment or

escape status on such a sentence. Failure to report for service of a sentence of

imprisonment is to be treated as an escape from such sentence. See §4A1.2(n).

However, if two points are added under §4A1.1(d), only one point is added

under §4A1.1(e).

2

 For both of these guidelines, prior criminal conduct is considered in determining the Chapter Two offense level.

3

 USSG §4A1.1(e) has been amended only one time since it first appeared in the guidelines effective November 1,

1987. Amendment 259, effective November 1, 1989, added the phrase “or while in imprisonment or escape status on

such a sentence” immediately before the period at the end of the first sentence “to clarify that subsection (e) applies

to defendants who are still in confinement status at the time of the instant offense (e.g., a defendant who commits the

instant offense while in prison or on escape status).” USSG App. C, Amend. 259, Reason for Amendment. In

addition, the definitional section of USSG §4A1.2 (which provides definitions and instructions for computing

criminal history) was amended, effective November 1, 1991, to clarify the meaning of the term “under a criminal

justice sentence” as used in USSG §4A1.1, and added two definitions specifically applicable to USSG §4A1.1(e). 

USSG App. C, Amend. 381. Section 4A1.2(l) was added to exclude from the definition of “under a criminal justice

sentence” for purposes of USSG §4A1.1(e) a sentence that is under appeal and its execution has been stayed pending

appeal, and USSG §4A1.2(n) was added to clarify that “failure to report for service of a sentence of imprisonment

shall be treated as an escape from such sentence.” Id.

2
Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

The background commentary further explains —

Section 4A1.1(e) implements another measure of recency by adding two points if

the defendant committed any part of the instant offense less than two years

immediately following his release from confinement on a sentence counted

under §4A1.1(a) or (b). Because of the potential overlap of (d) and (e), their

combined impact is limited to three points. However, a defendant who falls

within both (d) and (e) is more likely to commit additional crimes; thus, (d) and

(e) are not completely combined.

While the points computed pursuant to USSG §4A1.1(e) are commonly referred to as

“recency” points, this criminal history provision is not the only measure of “recency” in this

guideline. The commentary in USSG §4A1.1 refers to both subsection (d) and subsection (e) as

measures of “recency.”4

 Both provisions were included in the January 15, 1988, edition of the

Guidelines Manual.

Near the time of the initial promulgation of the guidelines, the Commission released a

Supplementary Report on the Initial Sentencing Guidelines and Policy Statements (Report)5

 explaining

4

 Section 4A1.1(d), often referred to as the “status” provision, states — 

Add 2 points if the defendant committed the instant offense while under any criminal justice

sentence, including probation, parole, supervised release, imprisonment, work release, or escape

status.

The corresponding Application Note states that — 

Two points are added if the defendant committed any part of the instant offense (i.e., any relevant

conduct) while under any criminal justice sentence, including probation, parole, supervised

release, imprisonment, work release, or escape status. Failure to report for service of a sentence of

imprisonment is to be treated as an escape from such sentence. See §4A1.2(n). For the purposes of

this item, a “criminal justice sentence” means a sentence countable under §4A1.2 (Definitions and

Instructions for Computing Criminal History) having a custodial or supervisory component,

although active supervision is not required for this item to apply. For example, a term of

unsupervised probation would be included; but a sentence to pay a fine, by itself, would not be

included. A defendant who commits the instant offense while a violation warrant from a prior

sentence is outstanding (e.g., a probation, parole, or supervised release violation warrant) shall be

deemed to be under a criminal justice sentence for the purposes of this provision if that sentence is

otherwise countable, even if that sentence would have expired absent such warrant. See

§4A1.2(m).

USSG §4A1.1, comment. (n. 4).

5

 UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION, SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT ON THE INITIAL SENTENCING GUIDELINES AND

POLICY STATEMENTS (1987).

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United States Sentencing Commission

the Commission’s bases for choosing the components of the criminal history score. The Report

stated, in part, that — 

The criminal history score used in the guidelines is comprised of five elements

that address the frequency, seriousness, and recency of the defendant’s prior

criminal history. See §4Al.l(a)-(e). The particular elements that the Commission

selected have been found empirically to be related to the likelihood of further

criminal behavior and also are compatible with the purposes of just punishment.6

The components themselves were selected to fulfill the dual goals of addressing (1) the

increased risk of recidivism and (2) the enhanced culpability associated with prior offending. 

The Report further explains — 

In selecting elements for the criminal history score, the Commission examined a

number of prediction instruments, with particular attention to the four

prediction instruments recently reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences

Panel on Criminal Careers. Two of these four prediction instruments, the United

States Parole Commission’s “Salient Factor Score” and the “Proposed Inslaw

Scale for Selecting Career Criminals for Special Prosecution,” were developed

using data on federal offenders. Four of the five elements selected by the

Commission for inclusion in the criminal history score are very similar to

elements contained in the Salient Factor Score. The remaining element was

derived from an element contained in the Proposed Inslaw Scale.7

The elements “very similar” to the Salient Factor Score (SFS) are USSG §§4A1.1(a-e). 

The single element “derived” from the Inslaw Scale appears to be USSG §4A1.1(f), which adds

one point “for each prior sentence resulting from a conviction of a crime of violence that did not

receive any points under (a), (b), or (c) above because such sentence was counted as a single

sentence, up to a total of 3 points for this element.” While the Report indicates that this was

part of the original criminal history score, this element was not added to the criminal history

score until November 1, 1991.8

 The Inslaw Scale was developed originally to assist United 

States Attorneys in determining which cases to assign to career criminal units for prosecution.9

6

 Report at 42.

7 Id. at 43 (citations omitted). The remaining two scales not used by the Commission are the “Rand Scale to

Distinguish Inmates by Individual Crime Rates” and the “Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument.” Inslaw — the Institute

for Law and Social Research — is a small, Washington, D.C.-based information technology company.

8

 USSG App. C, Amend. 381.

9 See CRIMINAL CAREERS AND “CAREER CRIMINALS” VOL.1 (Alfred Blumstein et al. eds., National Academy Press 1986)

(hereinafter Career Criminals Vol. 1).

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Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

The SFS is an empirically based recidivism prediction instrument that has been in use

since 1972. It is considered a static prediction instrument, which means it measures information

about the offender that is available at the time of sentencing.10 The version in use at the time the

Commission initially developed the criminal history score was the SFS 81.11 Not all the

elements contained in the SFS 81 are included in the guidelines’ criminal history calculation. 

Table 1 below presents a comparison of the elements of the SFS 81 and comparable elements

used by the Commission.

Table 1

Comparison of USSC Criminal History Elements and 

Salient Factor Score (SFS 81) Elements

Elements USSC Criminal History Computation Salient Factor Score SFS 81

Frequency of Prior Offending Count of prior convictions 

(USSG §§4A1.1(a),(b),(c))

Count of prior commitments (up to

four) (Element A)

Seriousness of Prior Offense Individual imposed sentence lengths

of prior convictions

(USSG §§4A1.1(a),(b),(c))

Count of prior commitments of 30

days or more (up to three)

(Element B)

Under Criminal Justice Sentence

at Time of Instant Offense

Instant offense committed while

under sentence or supervision

(USSG §4A1.1(d))

Instant offense committed while

under sentence or supervision

(Element E)

Recency of Prior Offending Two years since release from 60 days

or more days’ prison imposed

(USSG §4A1.1(e))

Three years since last release from

30 days or more commitment

(Element D)

Age at Current Offense Age at instant offense and priors

(Element C)

Drug Dependence History of Heroin/Opiate 

(Element F)

Violent Prior not receiving points

(from Inslaw Scale)

Violent convictions not receiving

points (USSG §4A1.1(f))

The predictive accuracy of the various iterations of SFS has been assessed in numerous

studies performed primarily by United States Parole Commission researchers. For example,

research conducted in 1994 by the Parole Commission reassessed the predictive accuracy of the

SFS 81 for three data periods spanning 17 years. The predictive accuracy of the tool as a whole

was tested on samples of federal offenders released (1) between 1970 and 1972; (2) in 1978; and

10 Peter B. Hoffman, Twenty Years of Operational Use of a Risk Prediction Instrument: The United States Parole

Commission’s Salient Factor Score, 22 J. CRIM. JUST. 477, 481 (1994).

11 The SFS had been revised, to that point, three times. The original, the SFS 72, was revised by the SFS 73, the SFS 76,

and the SFS 81. “In general, these revisions have reduced the number of items in the instrument, improved scoring

reliability, and reduced the number of non-criminal history, ‘status’ items (e.g., employment, living arrangements).” 

See id. at 480.

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United States Sentencing Commission

(3) in 1987. That analysis demonstrated that at three time points, the proportion of offenders

recidivating was positively associated with their classification level as determined by this tool. 

For example, using the 1987 sample, among persons identified as a “poor” risk, 67 percent

recidivated within three years of release. In comparison, among those classified as a “very

good” risk, only 16 percent recidivated during the study period.12

The Commission also has performed recidivism research, analyzing the recidivism of a

sample of offenders sentenced in fiscal year 1992. This research compared the predictive

accuracy of the guidelines’ “Criminal History Category” (CHC) with the newest iteration of the

salient factor score, the SFS 98.13

In January 2005, the Commission published A Comparison of the Federal Sentencing

Guidelines Criminal History Category and the U.S. Parole Commission Salient Factor Score

(Recidivism Report) comparing the Salient Factor Score and the CHC calculation used in the

guidelines.14 In this analysis, the measure of accuracy is a statistic that tests the ability of these

two tools to identify beforehand, a recidivist.15 The authors report that the difference in

12 The Commission, in the Report, cites a comment from the National Academy of Sciences Panel on Criminal

Careers, stating that “[t]wo measures of predictive power — point biserial correlation, mean cost rating — show that

for all versions [of the SFS], the score and the four risk categories are at the high end of the accuracy range reported

in other parole recidivism studies.” Report at 43 (citing Career Criminals Vol. 1, at 182).

13 The SFS 81 and the SFS 98 are very similar. Both count the frequency, seriousness, and recency of the defendant’s

prior criminal history. The SFS 81 included a measure of whether the offender had a history of heroin or opiate

dependence that was dropped from the SFS 98. Also, the SFS 98 adds a measure to account for offenders over the

age of 41 who have minimal or no prior criminal conduct.

14 See UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION, A COMPARISON OF THE FEDERAL SENTENCING GUIDELINES CRIMINAL

HISTORY CATEGORY AND THE U.S. PAROLE COMMISSION SALIENT FACTOR SCORE (2005),

http://www.ussc.gov/publicat/RecidivismSalientFactorCom.pdf.

15 The statistical method used in the report is the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. The

Recidivism Report notes that —

[m]easuring the area under the curve (AUC) is an established technique associated with receiver

operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The AUC statistic provides a probability that an

offender’s criminal history is able to predict recidivism. The AUC statistic ranges from a value of

0.5 (indicating no ability to predict recidivism) to a value of 1.0 (indicating 100 percent accuracy in

predicting recidivism). The greater the AUC, the better the predictive power of the measure being

tested.

Id. at 11.

The Recidivism Report further notes —

AUCs between 0.5 and 1.0 indicate a “better than random” predictive accuracy, but a “less than

6
Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

predictive ability between the scores for the two measures is “highly significant” statistically.16

It concludes that “[o]verall, the SFS is a better predictor of recidivism than is the CHC.”17

However, examination of the results indicates that the predictive values for these tools

are quite close and, though different in a statistically significant manner, may not be

meaningfully different. For the SFS, the statistical value equals .7313 while the corresponding

value for the CHC is .6992.18 As explained in the staff report, this value can be interpreted as

the number of times out of 100 — in a comparison of a recidivist and non-recidivist — the

recidivist will score higher (under Chapter Four of the guidelines) or lower (under the SFS) than

a non-recidivist. For the SFS, that value is 73 times out of 100. For Chapter Four of the

guidelines, the value is 69 times out of 100. A later finding in the Recidivism Report indicates

that the difference between the two instruments is not statistically significant if an “age” factor

similar to the age factor in the SFS was added to the calculation of the criminal history category

in USSG §4A1.1. Unlike the SFS, Chapter Four of the guidelines was designed not only to

determine the risk of recidivism but also to be compatible with the purposes of just

punishment.19

III. Results of Review of State Sentencing Guideline Systems

Staff conducted a review of state sentencing guideline systems that utilize some form of

written guidelines to determine whether and the way in which recency and status are

addressed in those state systems. The review included the sentencing guidelines of 14 states

perfect” predictive accuracy. For the hypothetical example appearing in the figure above [not

included here], the AUC of 0.67 indicates that 67 out of 100 times, randomly chosen recidivists and

non-recidivists are compared, a recidivist would have more prior criminal history than a nonrecidivist. This indicates that while the extent of prior criminal history is a strong predictor of

recidivism, it is not a perfect predictor.

Id. at 33.

16 Id. at 12.

17 Id.

18 Id.

19 USSG Ch. 4, Pt.A, intro. comment. (2009).

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United States Sentencing Commission

and the District of Columbia.20 No state system measures recency of the current offense in

relation to a prior offense in the same manner as the federal guidelines.

Only three jurisdictions employ a measure of recency. Two jurisdictions, Wisconsin and

Virginia, apply a measure of recency in determining the appropriate sentence, although the

measure is not as direct as that contained in the federal guidelines. The third jurisdiction,

Missouri, captures recency in its guidelines as part of a “risk assessment” used to determine

eligibility for release on parole. Thirteen jurisdictions capture status in some manner in

determining the offender’s sentence (Arkansas, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Kansas,

Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Utah, Virginia, Washington,

and Wisconsin).21 In two jurisdictions, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, neither status nor recency

are captured.

As discussed below, the state systems that contain measures of either recency or status

differ in the mechanics of capturing these elements and their ultimate impact on the offender’s

sentence. The three states measuring recency will be discussed first, followed by a discussion of

those that capture status.

A. Recency in the State Guidelines Systems

Virginia’s consideration of recency is limited to determining an offender’s eligibility for

alternatives to incarceration. If the sentencing guidelines applicable to a Virginia offender

recommend a term of imprisonment, alternatives to incarceration may be available if certain

requirements are met. For example, the offense must be nonviolent, and the offender cannot

have a history of violent crimes. Certain drug offenses are excluded. A risk assessment is

completed for eligible offenders. One of the elements considered in the risk assessment is a

measure of recency which inquires whether any arrests or confinements occurred in the past 18

months. If so, six points are added. If the offender acquires 33 additional points (for elements

such as age, employment, and prior record) the offender is ineligible for an alternative to

incarceration.

Wisconsin has a system of advisory guidelines that considers a variety of mitigating and

aggravating circumstances in relation to each offense. The Wisconsin guidelines list factors that

20 The review included an examination of the written guidelines and a telephone contact to the sentencing

commissions of each jurisdiction to insure that staff interpreted the written guidelines properly. The jurisdictions

surveyed are all members of the National Association of Sentencing Commissions (i.e., Arkansas, Delaware, the

District of Columbia, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania,

Utah, Virginia, and Washington); Wisconsin is the exception.

21 Although the Wisconsin Sentencing Commission is currently defunct, its advisory guidelines remain in use. 

Similarly, in Oregon, although prison sentences are mainly determined by statute and its guidelines have not been

updated since 1992, the guidelines remain in place. In Massachusetts, not only are the guidelines advisory, but

judges are not required to calculate a guideline sentence.

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Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

a court should consider in determining whether an offender’s criminal history is aggravating or

mitigating. One such consideration is recency, which can be either a mitigating or aggravating

factor, and is addressed as follows —

Time since most recent conviction or period of incarceration – As prior convictions

become more distant from the present offense, they become less reliable

indicators of risk. Sexual offenses are significant exceptions. They must be

carefully reviewed, no matter how old the conviction/offender. This factor

provides the court with an opportunity to indicate whether the passage of time is

calculated from the most recent conviction or period of incarceration, whether

little time has passed or many years, and whether this factor is mitigating or

aggravating.

Finally, the Missouri guidelines contain a risk assessment tool used to determine

eligibility for release on parole. The scale contains 11 separate elements including age,

education, employment, substance abuse, and criminal history. The best possible score on the

scale is 7; the worst possible score is -8. One of the 11 elements considers whether the offender

has had a five-year period free from incarceration or a finding of guilt. If so, one point is added,

weighing in the offender’s favor. If not, no points are added.

B. Status in the State Guideline Systems and in the District of Columbia

Thirteen jurisdictions capture status in their guidelines. Although the definitions and

terminology differ among the states, the inquiry is essentially the same as in the federal system,

i.e., whether the offender was under some form of criminal justice sentence (such as probation,

parole, supervised release, or confinement) at the time of commission of the instant offense. 

Jurisdictions containing measures of status can be grouped broadly into two categories: those

quantifying criminal history in a manner similar to the federal sentencing guidelines (adding up

points to arrive at a score) and those using status generally as an aggravating factor. The first

category includes seven of the 13 jurisdictions: Arkansas, Maryland, Minnesota, North

Carolina, Utah, Virginia, and Washington. In these jurisdictions, status is considered in

conjunction with prior convictions to arrive at a specific score.

In contrast, in Delaware, the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Missouri, and

Wisconsin, status is considered as an aggravating factor. These jurisdictions differ as to

whether status is to be considered in choosing a sentence within the otherwise applicable range

or as a reason for departure to a higher range. 

Kansas is unique because it does not consider status in determining the offender’s

criminal history category or sentencing range. The Kansas guidelines treat status as the

possible tipping point from a probationary sentence to one of incarceration. Under the Kansas

guidelines, if status is present, a sentencing court “may” sentence an offender to prison “even

when the new crime of conviction otherwise presumes a non-prison sentence.” In Kansas,

9
United States Sentencing Commission

status is not relevant in any determination other than whether a sentence of straight probation

or imprisonment should be imposed.

IV. Public Comment on Recency to Commission

In January 2010, the Commission gave notice of its proposed guideline amendments and

solicited public comment, including the calculation of recency. It collected written submissions

and received oral and written statements during a public hearing on March 17, 2010, regarding

the utility of the recency provision. The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) responded

that the recency provision improved the Commission’s criminal history computation because,

in its view, the Commission’s previous research established that each of the guidelines’ existing

subsections furthered the goal of predicting recidivism: 

[C]urrent subsections 4A1.1(d) and (e) are drafted appropriately to target two

distinct recidivism and culpability concerns . . . . 

* * *

[W]ith respect to predicting recidivism, in 2005, the Commission analyzed the

power of each element in its Criminal History Category (“CHC”) model to

predict recidivism and conclude that “each of the five elements [of] §§ 4A1.1(a)-

(e) [ ] makes an independent and statistically significant contribution” to

predicting recidivism.22

The DOJ concluded that existing Commission research established a correlation between the

recency provisions and recidivism/increased offender culpability.

The Commission’s Probation Officers Advisory Group (POAG) believed that the recency

provision “could be important in predicting recidivism” and that its elimination would have a

limited impact affecting only one-third of all cases.23

The Federal Public and Community Defenders (FPD) reviewed Commission research

and concluded that USSG §4A1.1(e) is not an accurate predictive tool and is not an accurate

determinant of increased offender culpability: 

22 Letter from Jonathan J. Wroblewski, Dir., Office of Policy and Legislation, U.S. Dep’t of Justice, to Hon. William K.

Sessions III, Chair, U.S. Sentencing Comm'n (Mar. 22, 2010) (internal citations omitted) (emphasis in original), at

11-12, available at

http://www.ussc.gov/pubcom_201003/DOJ2010%20Comment%20Letter%20on%20Proposed%20Amendments%20FI

NAL.pdf.

23 See Letter from POAG, to Hon. William K. Sessions III, Chair, U.S. Sentencing Comm'n (Feb. 3, 2010) at 4, available

at http://www.ussc.gov/pubcom_201003/POAG%20Paper%20February%202010.pdf.

10
Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

Recency points add essentially nothing to the criminal history score’s predictive

quality, and do not operate in theory or in practice to distinguish which

defendants are more culpable. . . . 

* * * 

[This application] fail[s] to reliably distinguish between offenders with more or

less relative culpability. The people who move into a higher criminal history

category because of recency points are often no different from — or are less

culpable than — those who do not.24, 25

The National Lawyer’s Guild’s National Immigration Project agreed with the reasoning

presented in the FPD’s written statement.26

The Commission’s Practitioner’s Advisory Group (PAG) noted the “experience of

practitioners who see firsthand the ways in which recency (as well status) points exaggerate the

supposed differences between defendants with prior records.”27 The PAG also raised the

concept of offender “fragility” during the early period of post-incarceration release:

The period soon after completion of an earlier sentence, especially the period

after one has served time in prison for the first time, is a fragile one for many of

our clients. The Guidelines currently put those who recidivate while still under

supervision or within two years of release in a higher Criminal History Category

24 See Margy Meyers, Incoming Chair, Fed. Defender Sentencing Guidelines Comm., on Behalf of the Federal Public

and Community Defenders, before the U.S. Sentencing Comm’n on Proposed Amendments for 2010 (Mar. 17, 2010)

at 90, 94 (internal citations omitted), available at

http://www.ussc.gov/pubcom_201003/FPD_Testimony%20of%20Meyers%20and%20Mariano.pdf.

25 Although he testified on a different subject matter, Dr. Scott Decker’s remarks also implicitly inform the “recency”

debate. In response to a question concerning whether the proximity of prior crimes should be a significant factor in

sentencing, he responded that there is generally a lack of certainty of punishment in state systems and consequently,

the “timing [of offenses] is not that important because there are so many underlying offenses by the time they get to

the federal system.” Alternatives to Incarceration/Specific Offender Characteristics at 201, United States Sentencing

Comm’n Public Hearing (Mar. 17, 2010) (Testimony of Dr. Scott Decker), available at

http://www.ussc.gov/AGENDAS/20100317/Hearing_Transcript.pdf.

26 Letter from Dan Kesselbrenner, Exec. Dir., and Carrie Rosenbaum, Member, National Immigration Project, to Hon.

William K. Sessions III, Chair, U.S. Sentencing Comm’n (Mar. 22, 2010) at 5, available at

http://www.ussc.gov/pubcom_201003/National%20immigrationProject.pdf.

27 See Letter from David Debold, Chair, and Todd Bussert, Vice-Chair, to Hon. William K. Sessions III, Chair, U.S.

Sentencing Comm’n (Mar. 22, 2010) at 15, available at 

http://www.ussc.gov/pubcom_201003/POAG%20Paper%20February%202010.pdf.

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United States Sentencing Commission

than those whose current offense comes after a somewhat longer period. In our

experience, that distinction is not meaningful. Often, circumstances beyond the

client’s control — and unrelated to blameworthiness or likelihood to offend

again — account for the difference in the timing of recidivism. In short, our

practical experience matches the results of the Commission’s research.28

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) stated that other guideline provisions

adequately account for past criminal conduct and that the application of recency points “leads

to disproportionate multiple counting of a defendant’s past criminal conduct.”29 The National

Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers generally concurred with the ACLU’s comments,

stating that application of both the recency and status provisions results in “unnecessary and

often unfair double-counting of the same prior criminal conviction, thereby artificially inflating

the defendant’s criminal history score.”30

V. Data Analysis: Application of Recency and Status in Fiscal Year 2009

The data analysis performed on the impact of the application of USSG §§4A1.1(d) and

(e) can be summarized as follows:

• Twenty percent of all cases receive points for recency;

• Recency alone is applied much less frequently than either status alone or in combination

with status points;

• The rate of application of both recency and status differs substantially by the Chapter

Two offense involved; and

• If recency points are removed from the criminal history score, 30.4 percent of cases that

received these points would see a reduction, by one category, in the criminal history

category.

In fiscal year 2009, the Commission received information on 81,372 cases sentenced

under the guidelines. Of the 81,372 total cases, 71,054 had complete documentation for this

analysis. Of the 71,054 cases with complete documentation, 23,964 cases (33.7%) received points

for either USSG §4A1.1(d) (status), USSG §4A1.1(e) (recency), or both. Of the 71,054 cases with

28 See id.

29 See Letter from Laura W. Murphy, Dir., ACLU Wash. Legislative Office, to Hon. William K. Sessions III, Chair, U.S.

Sentencing Comm'n (Mar. 22, 2010) at 8, available at

http://www.ussc.gov/pubcom_201003/ACLU_Murphy_Comments.pdf.

30 See Statement of Cynthia Hujar Orr, on Behalf of the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers, before the

U.S. Sentencing Comm'n (Mar. 17, 2010) at 4-5, available at

http://www.ussc.gov/pubcom_201003/NACDL_comments.pdf.

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Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

complete documentation, recency points were applied in 14,548 or 20.5 percent of the cases. Of

the 14,548 cases that received recency points, status points also were applied in 9,921 cases

(68.2%), while recency alone was applied in 4,627 cases (31.8%). Of the 71,054 cases with

complete documentation, status points were applied without recency in 9,416 cases (13.3%). 

To be eligible for recency points, the offender must have a relevant criminal history

event having a sentence of 60 days or longer; having such an event necessarily places the

offender in Criminal History Category II. This means that only those offenders in Criminal

History Category II and greater are potentially eligible for application of recency points. In

fiscal year 2009, 38,850 (54.7% of 71,054) offenders had a criminal history category of II or

greater. The structure of the criminal history guidelines is such that the application of one or

two points for recency may not add sufficient points to increase the offender’s criminal history

category.31 Of the 14,548 offenders who received recency points, less than one-third

experienced an increase in their criminal history category as a result of its application. See

Figure 1.

Table 2 presents information on the application of recency and status points for selected

guidelines during fiscal year 2009. Guidelines were selected for inclusion in this table to satisfy

two purposes. The first purpose is to provide a broad perspective on the application of USSG

§4A1.1(d) or USSG §4A1.1(e) in the data. To achieve this, the five most frequently applied

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission, 2009 Datafile, USSCFY2009.

31 This could be the situation because the additional points did not result in a criminal history point total sufficient to

reach the next category or because of the operation of other Chapter Four provisions.

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United States Sentencing Commission

guidelines for all cases sentenced were chosen: USSG §2D1.1 (Unlawful Manufacturing,

Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These

Offenses); Attempt or Conspiracy); USSG §2L1.2 (Unlawfully Entering or Remaining in the

United States); USSG §2B1.1(Larceny, Embezzlement, and Other Forms of Theft; Offenses

Involving Stolen Property; Property Damage or Destruction; Fraud and Deceit; Forgery;

Offenses Involving Altered or Counterfeit Instruments Other than Counterfeit Bearer

Obligations of the United States); USSG §2K2.1 (Unlawful Receipt, Possession, or

Transportation of Firearms or Ammunition; Prohibited Transactions Involving Firearms or

Ammunition); and USSG §2L1.1 (Smuggling, Transporting, or Harboring an Unlawful Alien). 

These five guidelines account for 80.7 percent of all cases sentenced in fiscal year 2009. The

second purpose is to identify guidelines that account for criminal history in the Chapter Two

computation.32 For some of these offenders, a single prior offense could be counted up to four

times in the determination of the sentencing range. That is, the same prior offense may trigger

an increase in the applicable guideline range under the following guideline provisions: (1) a

specific offense characteristic or base offense level under Chapter Two; (2) criminal history

points under USSG §§4A1.1(a-c); (3) status points under USSG §4A1.1(d); and (4) recency points

under USSG §4A1.1(e).

32 These four additional guidelines, ordered by the number of cases sentenced, are — USSG §2L2.2 (Fraudulently

Acquiring Documents Relating to Naturalization, Citizenship, or Legal Resident Status for Own Use; False

Personation or Fraudulent Marriage by Alien to Evade Immigration Law; Fraudulently Acquiring or Improperly

Using a United States Passport); USSG §2L2.1 (Trafficking in a Document Relating to Naturalization, Citizenship, or

Legal Resident Status, or a United States Passport; False Statement in Respect to the Citizenship or Immigration

Status of Another; Fraudulent Marriage to Assist Alien to Evade Immigration Law); USSG §2N2.1 (Violations of

Statutes and Regulations Dealing With Any Food, Drug, Biological Product, Device, Cosmetic, or Agricultural

Product); and USSG §2K1.3 (Unlawful Receipt, Possession, or Transportation of Explosive Materials; Prohibited

Transactions Involving Explosive Materials).

14
Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

Table 2

Application of Status1

 and Recency2 Points for Selected Guidelines in Fiscal Year 2009

Total Cases3 Total Cases

N % N%

2D1.1 23,316 2L2.2 1,616

Status or Recency 6,761 29.0 Status or Recency 177 11.0

Status Only 3,200 13.7 Status Only 95 5.9

Recency Only 1,203 5.2 Recency Only 25 1.5

Both 2,358 10.1 Both 57 3.5

2L1.2 16,921 2L2.1 371

Status or Recency 8,547 50.5 Status or Recency 30 8.1

Status Only 2,592 15.3 Status Only 23 6.2

Recency Only 1,835 10.8 Recency Only 1 0.3

Both 4,120 24.3 Both 6 1.6

2B1.1 7,789 2N2.1 37

Status or Recency 1,498 19.2 Status or Recency 1 2.7

Status Only 793 10.2 Status Only 1 2.7

Recency Only 189 2.4 Recency Only 0 0.0

Both 516 6.6 Both 0 0.0

2K2.1 6,166 2K1.3 22

Status or Recency 3,283 53.2 Status or Recency 4 18.2

Status Only 1,185 19.2 Status Only 1 4.5

Recency Only 777 12.6 Recency Only 1 4.5

Both 1,321 21.4 Both 2 9.1

2L1.1 3,163

Status or Recency 678 21.4

Status Only 323 10.2

Recency Only 148 4.7

Both 207 6.5

1 USSG §4A1.1(d) adds two points to the offender’s criminal history score if the instant offense is committed while under any criminal justice sentence,

including probation, parole, supervised release, imprisonment, work release, or escape status. This provision is commonly referred to as “status”

points.

2

 USSG §4A1.1(e) adds two points to the offender’s criminal history score if the defendant committed the instant offense less than two years after

release from imprisonment on a sentence counted under USSG §4A1.1(a) or (b) or while in imprisonment or escape status. If two points are added for

USSG §4A1.1(d), only one point is added for this section. This provision is commonly referred to as “recency” points.

3

 This analysis includes only cases with complete guideline information.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission, 2009 Datafile, USSCFY2009.

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United States Sentencing Commission

The nine guidelines presented in Table 2 satisfy these purposes (the total is only nine

because four guidelines are both the most frequently applied and contain a criminal historyrelated enhancement).33 These nine guidelines account for 83.6 percent of all cases for which

complete documentation was available (59,401 of 71,054 total cases). Recency points, status

points, or both were applied in 35.3 percent of the cases sentenced under these nine guidelines;

in other words, of the 59,401 cases sentenced under these guidelines, 20,979 received points for

recency or status or both.

For each of these nine guidelines set forth in Table 2, points for status alone or status in

combination with recency are applied more frequently than the application of points for recency

alone. The proportion of cases within each guideline that receives either of these enhancements

varies substantially by guideline. When either enhancement is applied — 

• the lowest rate of application is found at USSG §2N2.1 (2.7% of these cases); and

• the highest rates of application are found at USSG §2K2.1 (53.2% of these cases) and

USSG §2L1.2 (50.5% of these cases).

A. Case Coding Project

The Commission conducted additional analyses of offenders receiving recency points

and sentenced under the Chapter Two guidelines that interact with USSG §4A1.1(e) with the

greatest frequency — USSG §§2L1.2 and 2K2.1. 

For this project, the fiscal year 2006 data from an earlier criminal history project was

used. This prior project was completed in April 2007 and produced a datafile documenting the

complete criminal history of 11,207 offenders. Making use of this dataset provided access to

information on a greater number of cases than if the project was started anew with a small

sample of fiscal year 2008 cases. Of the 11,207 cases, 1,912 were sentenced under USSG §2L1.2,

of which 694 (36.3%) received recency points. This percentage is very close to the percentage of

USSG §2L1.2 offenders sentenced in fiscal year 2009 who received recency points (35.2%). 

Likewise, in this dataset there are 1,117 offenders who were sentenced under USSG §2K2.1, 346

of whom have recency points. The percentage in the fiscal year 2006 sample (31.0%) also is very

close to the percentage of USSG §2K2.1 cases receiving recency in fiscal year 2009 (34.0%).

33 Among the guidelines most used in federal cases (USSG §§2D1.1, 2L1.2, 2B1.1, 2K2.1, and 2L1.1), only USSG §2B1.1

does not include a potential increase to the Chapter Two offense level based on a criminal history factor. While

USSG §2D1.1 does provide an alternative base offense level that is dependent on the presence of a prior drug crime,

this application is limited to (1) only those offenders convicted of specific drug statutes; and more significantly, (2)

those cases in which death or serious bodily injury from the use of the drug is present. This latter provision applies

extremely rarely. Because these criteria are rarely met, very few cases sentenced under USSG §2D1.1 receive a base

offense level enhancement for a prior drug offense and the enhancement for recency.

16
Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

1. Analysis of case coding project of USSG §§2L1.2 and 2K2.1 offenders

A large proportion of offenders sentenced in fiscal year 2006 under USSG §§2L1.2 or

2K2.1 received points for recency alone or in combination with status. For those offenders who

were sentenced under USSG §§2L1.2 or 2K2.1, and who received both status and recency points,

a single event triggered both enhancements in a large percentage of the cases. Specifically, 88.5

percent of USSG §2L1.2 offenders and 78.7 percent of USSG §2K2.1 offenders who received both

status and recency points had a single triggering event. 

2. Analysis of case coding project of USSG §2L1.2 cases

Using the Commission’s fiscal year 2006 criminal history coding project, 694 offenders

were identified who were sentenced under USSG §2L1.2 and who received one or two points

for recency. Of these, more than two-thirds (n=496 of 694, 71.5%) involved cases in which only

a single event triggered the recency points. 

Of these 694 offenders who were sentenced under USSG §2L1.2, 505 (72.8%) received

points for both recency and status. For nearly all these cases (n=447 of 505, 88.5%) the same

criminal history event triggered the recency and status points. Of these 505 offenders who

received status and recency points, 182 (36.0%) had only one prior eligible criminal history

event. For these offenders, that single event was counted four times in determining the final

guideline range. This single event triggered the application of (1) the specific offense

characteristic at USSG §2L1.2(b)(1); (2) the criminal history points at USSG §§4A1.1(a) or (b);

(3) the status points at USSG §4A1.1(d); and (4) the recency points at USSG §4A1.1(e).34

3. Analysis of coding project of USSG §2K2.1 cases

From the Commission’s fiscal year 2006 criminal history coding project, 346 offenders

were identified who were sentenced under USSG §2K2.1 and who received one or two points

for recency. In half of these (n=173 of 346, 50.0%), only a single event triggered the recency

points.

Of these 346 offenders who were sentenced under USSG §2K2.1, 239 (69.1%) received

points for both recency and status. For more than three-quarters of these cases (n=188 of 239,

34 In addition to the number of eligible criminal history events, information was collected on the temporal

relationship between the moment the offense of “being found” illegally in the United States was committed and the

application of status and recency points. As part of the coding project, data was collected on whether the offense

triggering the recency points occurred before or after the most recent deportation. Of the 694 cases examined,

sufficient information was available to conduct this analysis in 688 cases. In 33 of the 688 cases (4.8%), the triggering

offense for recency occurred after the most recent deportation.

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United States Sentencing Commission

78.7%) the same criminal history event triggered both enhancements and 62 (25.9%) had only

one prior eligible criminal history event. For these 62 offenders, that single event was counted

four times in determining the final guideline range. This event triggered the particular base

offense level at USSG §2K2.1; the criminal history points at USSG §§4A1.1(a) or (b); the status

points at USSG §4A1.1(d); and, the recency points at USSG §4A1.1(e).

B. Association with Below-Range Sentences

Analysis of fiscal year 2009 data suggests an association between the application of

recency and the likelihood of the court imposing a below-range sentence and citing a criminal

history reason. An examination of all below-range sentences (including those that were both

government and non-government sponsored)35 finds that criminal history was cited as a reason

in 10.5 percent of all below-range sentences. In cases in which recency was applied, either alone

or in combination with status, criminal history was cited as a reason for a below-range sentence

in 12.0 percent of the cases. In cases in which recency points alone applied, a criminal history

reason was cited in 15.5 percent of below-range sentences. Finally, below-range cases in which

only status points were applied, criminal history was cited as a reason in 11.2 percent of cases.

C. Recidivism

One of the four purposes of the criminal history chapter of the Guidelines Manual is the

consideration of the offender’s likelihood of recidivism.36 The Recidivism Report examined the

subsequent criminal offending of a sample of offenders sentenced under the guidelines in fiscal

year 1992.

The Recidivism Report used a statistical method that compares the total criminal history

points of a randomly chosen recidivist with the total criminal history points of a randomly

chosen non-recidivist. The ideal result is that for each comparison, the recidivist will have a

greater number of points than the non-recidivist. The Commission used the same statistical

method to further analyze the data from the Recidivism Report to determine the specific

marginal contribution of recency to the prediction of recidivism.

Two reanalyses were performed. In the first, the reanalysis computed the predictive

ability of criminal history score excluding the recency subsection. That is, the reanalysis used

those subsections of the criminal history score related to frequency and seriousness (USSG

35 Both government and non-government sponsored below-range sentences are included because the court may cite

multiple reasons for a below-range sentence. The purpose of this analysis was to capture every instance in which a

criminal history reason was cited, regardless of the sponsorship.

36 See USSG Ch.4, Pt.A intro. comment.

18
Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

§§4A1.1(a-c)), status (USSG §4A1.1(d)), and violence (USSG §4A1.1(f)). The results of the

reanalysis showed that the recidivists will have a greater number of criminal history points in

6,982 out of 10,000 such comparisons.

In the second reanalysis, recency points were included in the criminal history score, such

that all components of the criminal history score were included. This comparison improves

slightly to 6,992 out of 10,000 comparisons.

D. Prison Impact

The potential impact on sentences and to the federal prison population of eliminating

the recency points at USSG §4A1.1(e) was estimated using the Commission’s Prison Impact

Model, which has been in use in some form since the guidelines were first developed. This

model is used to estimate the impact of proposed statutory or guideline amendments (or both)

on newly sentenced offenders and to project into the future the impact of those amendments on

bed space in the federal Bureau of Prisons.37 This model assumes that all factors other than the

proposed change in the specific sentencing policy under review (e.g., arrest rates, charging

practices, conviction rates, and other sentencing policies) remain constant over time. As a

result, changes in the specific policy under review are isolated from other systemic change.38

For this specific analysis, the fiscal year 2009 dataset was used. Initially, the model

identifies offenders receiving points (either one or two) from the application of USSG §4A1.1(e). 

For each identified offender, those points are removed from the calculation of the criminal

history score. Using the new criminal history score, a new criminal history category is

determined. While every offender receiving recency points will receive a new criminal history

37 The model estimates the change to a “steady-state” prison population resulting from changes to the guidelines. 

Change is measured in person-years of imprisonment. In general, person-years of imprisonment can be thought of

as the long-term prison population. The concept of a “steady-state” population envisions a prison system in

homeostasis. In this system, the number of new, incoming inmates is equal to the number of out-going (released)

inmates, and all beds are assumed to be occupied.

38 If the amendment lengthens sentences, the “steady-state” prison population increases because inmate sentences

under the current guidelines would have release dates occurring earlier than would be the situation if the new,

longer sentence was applied. These offenders then accumulate in the system because their release is now delayed. 

Because new inmates arrive at a constant rate, additional beds are required. If the proposed amendment shortens

sentences, the “steady-state” prison population decreases because inmates are now released earlier than anticipated,

freeing-up prison beds. Other assumptions incorporated into the prison impact model include (1) defendants are resentenced to a position in the estimated new guideline range that is equivalent to the position of the sentence in the

original guideline range; (2) defendants earn the maximum allowable good-time (currently 54 days per year served

for imposed sentences greater than one year but not life imprisonment); and (3) defendants serve the minimum of

(A) the sentence imposed less the maximum allowable good conduct time, or (B) their estimated remaining life

expectancy, based upon an actuarial table incorporating age, race, and sex.

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United States Sentencing Commission

score, not all will experience a change in the criminal history category. As described earlier, a

CHC increase results for approximately one-third of offenders receiving recency points.

The prison impact analysis revealed that if USSG §4A1.1(e) was not applied in fiscal year

2009, 4,189 of the 14,048 offenders receiving recency points would have moved to the next lower

criminal history category.39 This decrease in criminal history category would result in a 16.3

percent reduction in the average sentence of those affected, from 49 months to 41 months. 

Figure 2 presents information on the distribution of offense types among the offenders receiving

a lower sentence.

Note that percentages do not total exactly 100% due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission, 2009 Datafile, USSCFY2009.

39 The number of offenders in the prison impact analysis differs from the other numbers in this report due to

limitations in the data available for use in the model.

20
Computation of “Recency” Criminal History Points Under USSG §4A1.1(e)

Figure 3 presents information on the criminal history categories of the affected

offenders. Figure 3 shows the number and percent of offenders from each criminal history

category who shift to a lower category.

The prison impact model also can provide an estimate of the longer term impact of this

amendment on the overall federal prison population. Based on this analysis, it is estimated that

five years after implementation, this amendment could eliminate the need for up to 1,391 prison

beds that otherwise would be filled because of the longer sentences resulting from application

of the recency provision.

VI. Summary

In fiscal year 2009, the applicability of the recency provision was considered in 38,850

cases, all of which necessarily involve defendants in Criminal History Category II or higher. 

The provision ultimately was applied in 14,548 of these cases (37.4% of 38,850). In two-thirds of

the cases receiving recency points, the offender received two additional points for USSG

§4A1.1(d) (status) (9,921 of 14,548, 68.2%). Of the 14,548 offenders receiving any recency points,

these points had an impact on the offender’s calculated criminal history category in only 4,419

cases (30.4% of 14,548 recency applications).

This review also examined the utility of this subsection in predicting recidivism. While

the Commission does not have recidivism data on non-citizens, with respect to United States

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission, 2009 Datafile, USSCFY2009.

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United States Sentencing Commission

citizens, Commission research demonstrates that including recency in the criminal history

calculation has minimal predictive power. Based on the analysis of Commission recidivism

data on United States citizens, the inclusion of recency points improves the prediction that a

recidivist has a higher criminal history score (compared with a non-recidivist) in just ten of

3,018 comparisons for which the remaining subsections of USSG §4A1.1 alone did not correctly

predict the higher.

The prison impact analysis revealed that if recency points were not available in fiscal

year 2009, 4,189 of the 14,048 offenders receiving recency points would have moved to the next

lower criminal history category, resulting in a reduction in their average sentence from 49

months to 41 months (a 16.3% average decrease). After five years, eliminating recency points is

estimated to save 1,391 prison beds.

22