Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards: 

A Strategic Plan for the Multi-Hazards 

Demonstration Project in Southern California

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Open-File Report 2007-1255

Photograph by M.J. Rymer, U.S. Geological Survey

Photograph by M.J. Rymer, U.S. Geological Survey

Increasing Resiliency to Natural 

Hazards—A Strategic Plan for the 

Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in 

Southern California

By Lucy Jones, Richard Bernknopf, Susan Cannon, Dale A. Cox, Len Gaydos, 

Jon Keeley, Monica Kohler, Homa Lee, Daniel Ponti, Stephanie Ross, Steven 

Schwarzbach, Michael Shulters, A. Wesley Ward, and Anne Wein

Open-File Report 2007–1255

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior

DIRK KEMPTHORNE, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Mark D. Myers, Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2007

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U.S. Government.

Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to 

reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report.

Suggested reference:

Jones, Lucy, Bernknopf, Richard, Cannon, Susan, Cox, D.A., Gaydos, Len, Keeley, Jon, Kohler, Monica, Lee, Homa, Ponti, Daniel, Ross, 

Stephanie, Schwarzbach, Steven, Shulters, Michael, Ward, A.W., and Wein, Anne, 2007, Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—A 

Strategic Plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007–1255.
iii

Contents

Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................................1

Vision, Mission, and Objectives...................................................................................................................2

Vision ....................................................................................................................................................2

Mission ...................................................................................................................................................2

Objectives...............................................................................................................................................2

Statement of Problem....................................................................................................................................2

Project Principles...........................................................................................................................................4

Existing Hazards Research ........................................................................................................4

First-Year Goals ..............................................................................................................................................6

Integration and Implementation Interface Working Group ...........................................................6

Earthquakes and Tsunamis Working Group .....................................................................................7

Fire and Debris Flows Working Group...............................................................................................7

Winter Storm Events Working Group ................................................................................................8

Potential Out-Year Goals...............................................................................................................................8

Integration and Implementation Interface Working Group ...........................................................8

Earthquakes and Tsunamis Working Group .....................................................................................9

Fire and Debris-Flow Working Group ..............................................................................................10

Winter Storm Events Working Group ..............................................................................................11

Partnerships and Collaborations...............................................................................................................12

Governance...................................................................................................................................................12

Metrics of Progress.....................................................................................................................................14

Appendix A—FY 2007 Implementation Plan............................................................................................15

Operational Structure ........................................................................................................................15

Future Research Priorities and Funding .........................................................................................15

Required Skills/Staffing .....................................................................................................................15

Core Physical Facility.........................................................................................................................16

Workshops ...........................................................................................................................................16

Appendix B—Proposed FY 2007 Funding Allocation .............................................................................17

Appendix C—Potential Partners and Collaborators..............................................................................19

Figures

Figure 1. Map showing shaded relief map of southern California showing 

geographical extent and overlap of different hazards ................................. 3

Figure 2. Graph showing guiding framework for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project 5

Figure 3. Graph showing relationships among the Southern California Multi-Hazards 

Demonstration Project working groups (MHDP), their research and interface 

priorities and products, and the end users, partners, and collaborators ............ 13
iv

Tables

Table 1. Secondary hazard triggering events ...................................................... 5

Table 2. Personnel and Funding for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) in 

Southern California—FY 2007 ............................................................ 17

Acronyms

ET Earthquakes and Tsunamis

FD Fire and Debris Flows

EROS Earth Resources Observation System

FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency

FY fiscal year

GIS Geographic Information System

I-cubed Integration and Implementation Interface

LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging

MDHP Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NWIS National Water Information System

SCCOOS Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System

SCEC Southern California Earthquake Center

USGS U.S. Geological Survey

WS Winter Storm Events
Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—A Strategic 

Plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in 

Southern California

By Lucy Jones, Richard Bernknopf, Susan Cannon, Dale A. Cox, Len Gaydos, Jon Keeley, Monica Kohler, 

Homa Lee, Daniel Ponti, Stephanie Ross, Steven Schwarzbach, Michael Shulters, A. Wesley Ward, and 

Anne Wein

Executive Summary

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new 

project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards 

in southern California through the application of science to 

community decision making and emergency response. The 

Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s 

communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by 

directing new and existing research towards the community’s 

needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. 

The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include 

coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and 

wildfires.

Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now 

than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials 

for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with 

estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. 

These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of 

the southern California community itself. To be effective, 

these decisions must be guided by the best information about 

hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks 

where communities can apply the results of scientific research 

to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, 

county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and 

private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal 

Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic 

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies.

Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, 

three strategic planning workshops were held in February and 

March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to 

determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation 

efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response 

efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from 

workshop participants, four priority areas were identified 

for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision 

makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the 

mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing 

real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) 

integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. 

Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been 

outlined with the priorities in mind.

First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to 

establish the structures and processes for communications and 

interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of 

anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario 

of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary 

hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, 

and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete 

and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and 

out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group 

structure that builds on existing research strengths within the 

USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement 

in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment 

for application across the Nation.
Vision, Mission, and Objectives

Vision

We envision a future in which the best science is used 

to improve resiliency to natural hazards by individuals and 

institutions in southern California.

Mission

Our mission is to help communities reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards through the application of science 

and engineering to community planning and response. The 

project will be a new arena within the USGS for multi-disciplinary, collaborative work that will dramatically improve 

individual and community understanding of the risks from 

multiple hazards ever-present in southern California and that 

will empower the use of that information in making decisions 

to reduce losses.

Objectives

The overarching objective of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project is to help communities reduce losses from 

natural hazards. We will do this by incorporating the expressed 

needs of southern California communities into natural-hazards 

science through new and existing research activities, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of 

our results. The work will integrate multiple USGS research 

activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products 

and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The long-term objectives are to

Create a nucleation point that fosters two-way communication between scientists and disaster managers and 

area planners.

Plan USGS research in concert with partners to further 

the goal of improved resiliency to natural hazards. This 

improved interaction will foster USGS’ understanding 

of the needs for community decisions and will guide 

future USGS research.

Initiate or expand real-time natural-hazard monitoring 

and warning systems.

Provide easy access to new and existing hazards data, 

information, assessments, and models to facilitate integration and use by decision makers and researchers.

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Develop new research products and interactive tools 

that result in effective use of hazard, vulnerability, and 

risk maps and assessments. Integrate hazard products, 

and economic and social science research into decision-support resources that respond to community 

needs.

Propose extensions of our methodology, products, and 

experience to other regions to build a robust Integrated 

Urban Hazards program for the Nation.

Statement of Problem

Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now 

than at any other time in our Nation’s history. In the United 

States each year, natural hazards cause hundreds of deaths 

and cost tens of billions of dollars in disaster aid, disruption 

of commerce, and destruction of homes and critical infrastructure. Although we have reduced the number of lives lost 

to many natural hazards, the economic cost of major disaster 

response and recovery continues to double or triple in constant 

dollars every decade. Southern California, in particular, has 

one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic 

losses due to natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, 

wildfires, landslides, coastal erosion, and floods. Estimates of 

expected losses from all these hazards in the eight counties of 

southern California exceed $3 billion per year (fig. 1). These 

numbers are expected to increase as the present population of 

23 million continues to grow at more than 10 percent per year.

These losses can only be reduced through actions of 

the southern California communities. To be effective, these 

actions must be guided by the best information about hazards, 

risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. 

Long-term solutions require broad perspectives that recognize 

the inter-connectedness of urban communities and the natural 

environment.

USGS scientists must provide scientific information that 

is beneficial to society. Decision makers (for example, planners, policy makers, emergency response officials) in southern 

California know that scientific information is not being fully 

used in decisions about natural hazards. Factors that impede 

the use of scientific information include incompleteness, 

uncertainties, decentralized sources, non-standardization, 

presentation format, incomprehensibility to the layperson, 

misinterpretation, and inaccessibility of information.

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 Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—Strategic Plan for Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, Southern Calif.
Decisions to improve resiliency to natural hazards can 

be grouped into two sets of problems in two time frames: (1) 

emergency response to a natural hazard event as it happens, 

and (2) long-range planning for building resiliency to multiple 

and periodic natural hazards. The demand for and supply of 

scientific information for these problems takes place in a complex decision-making environment. The two problems have 

the following characteristics in common.

Multiple natural hazards affect most regions, and the 

spatial extents of natural hazards often overlap, with 

initial hazards triggering secondary hazards.

Natural hazards create multiple negative effects on 

social welfare including loss of life and injury, replacement costs of buildings and infrastructure, loss of 

function of critical facilities, service and infrastructure 

outages, business interruption, and a decrease in the 

quality of life.

The severities of natural hazards vary greatly. Anticipated events, such as a 50-year flood or a Northridgesized earthquake, are highly likely to occur during 

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our planning horizon and fall within the knowledge 

and experience of at least some decision makers. The 

occurrence, magnitude, and impact of the most catastrophic events are much more uncertain and can break 

the entire social system. Standard mechanisms for loss 

evaluation and financial recovery will fail. Many losses 

are not replaceable and substantial public aid is necessary.

Decision makers at different levels of government 

require different types of information at a wide range 

of spatial and temporal scales. The decision-making environment is dynamic and the decision makers 

need to be able to access the most recent information 

derived from scientific investigations that account for 

human and natural forces of change.

Effective risk reduction options depend on resources 

that are subject to budget constraints and on personal 

or organizational preferences for acceptable levels of 

risk; the options thus need to be quantified by models 

and simulation studies.

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KERN

ORANGE

VENTURA

SAN

DIEGO

RIVERSIDE

IMPERIAL

SANTA

BARBARA

SAN BERNARDINO

SAN LUIS OBISPO

KERN

ORANGE

VENTURA

SAN

DIEGO

RIVERSIDE

IMPERIAL

LOS

ANGELES

SANTA

BARBARA

SAN BERNARDINO

SAN LUIS OBISPO

0 50 Miles

0 50 Kilometers

EXPLANATION

Earthquake-damaged areas since 1850

 (Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale VII)

Wildfire areas since 1910—1,000 or more acres

Earthquake and wildfire areas overlapping

Historic flood inundation area

Urbanized areas—500 or more persons per 

 square mile

Tsunami zone—shown schematically

Landslide zone - areas of steep terrain

Rivers subject to flooding

CALIFORNIA

Study

area

120° 118° 116°

33°

32°

35°

34°

Santa

Barbara

San

Diego

U.S.

MEXICO

Palm

Riverside Springs

Los

Angeles

Lancaster

Figure 1. Shaded relief map of southern California showing geographical extent and overlap of different hazards.

The region of study will span the urban areas of southern California, including the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan 

areas, and extending north to Santa Barbara and Lancaster, south to the Mexico border, and east to Palm Springs.

Statement of Problem 
Project Principles

To accomplish our mission of applying the best science to 

improve disaster resiliency, we must

Ensure that our research will be useful to communities.

Conduct the best possible multidisciplinary scientific 

research.

Work in partnership with communities to support them 

in using the research results.

Natural hazard information is useful when it is factored 

into decision-making about risk reduction strategies. USGS 

activities will increase our understanding of the framework 

of hazard possibilities, vulnerable environments, community 

responses, and associated risk reduction options. The vulnerable environment is in part created by humans, but is also natural—the soils, geology, hydrology, and ecology. Activities will 

be prioritized and carried out in order to fill gaps in the scientific knowledge base, which can help to improve resiliency. We 

aim to gain an understanding of the relations between human 

actions and environmental vulnerabilities and inform decision 

makers about possible risk reduction measures.

Existing Hazards Research

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project is based on existing 

hazards research programs of the U.S. Geological Survey. The 

USGS role varies for the different hazards.

Earthquakes. The USGS has statutory responsibility to assess 

earthquake hazards for the Nation, monitor seismic activity 

and issue alerts, and conduct targeted research into earthquake 

processes and effects.

Landslides. The USGS has statutory responsibility to assess 

and issue warnings of landslide hazards for the Nation and 

conducts applied research in support of that responsibility.

Floods. The USGS has responsibility to monitor stream levels 

for use by NOAA in flood warnings and to conduct research on 

flood inundation and hydrology.

Tsunamis. The USGS assesses offshore geologic faults and 

landslides for tsunami generation potential, conducts research 

in tsunami generation, and provides global seismic data to 

NOAA for use in tsunami warnings and mitigation.

Fires. The USGS provides geospatial support to landmanagement agencies and conducts research in fire 

ecology and response of ecologic systems to fires.

Coastal erosion. The USGS conducts research in marine 

geology on susceptibility to coastal erosion.

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Figure 2 shows the schematic relationships of the need 

for and flow of information in making decisions for risk reduction. Possible actions are shown in gold boxes and can take 

place either before or during and immediately after an event. 

The variables of the hazard system are shown in blue ovals. 

The hazard (for example, fire, earthquake, flood, etc.) has 

some probability of occurring with some magnitude, location, and other characteristics. It acts upon an environment 

with some susceptibility to the hazard. Most risk-reduction 

strategies are applied to this environment, such as compacting soils to reduce shaking, planting grass to stop erosion, or 

retrofitting buildings to prevent damage. The effect of each of 

these decisions on reducing losses can be determined through 

scientific study but also depends on the state of the environmental system. A second set of actions is undertaken during 

or after the event, such as fire fighting, and search and rescue. 

All of these elements affect each other and result in certain 

outcomes, shown in purple, of economic losses, casualties, and 

ecologic damage.

The decisions on the left side of the diagram are being 

made by different individuals and communities in southern 

California. The goal of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project is to understand the characteristics and relationships among 

the elements on the right so as to better predict the effects of 

the various risk reduction strategies and to communicate this 

information to those making the decisions. This information 

will provide critical support for improving strategies that will 

actively reduce losses. The elements and interdependencies 

will be captured in an influence diagram (modeled after that 

shown in figure 2) for each hazard that we are studying: earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods, and coastal 

erosion.

These hazards also are interdependent (table 1). An earthquake can immediately trigger fires, and a fire makes an area 

more susceptible to debris flows. Moreover, the risk-reduction 

strategy for one hazard may reduce or even aggravate some 

other hazard. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project proposes to investigate and communicate the relationships among 

the hazards, how they trigger each other, and how the risk 

reduction strategies interact.

To accomplish these multi-faceted tasks, the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will be organized around four 

working groups. Three of the groups—Earthquakes and Tsunamis (ET), Fire and Debris Flows (FD), and Winter Storm 

Events (WS)—will focus on the research of particular hazards 

and some of the interrelationships. The hazards have been 

grouped by the most direct connections among events. The 

fourth group, Integration and Implementation Interface 

(I-cubed), will support the interface with the community as 

well as develop the risk analysis model described schematically in the influence diagram (figure 2). This risk analysis 

model provides the backbone of the framework for conceptualizing the full range of activities of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project and its relationship to southern California 

decision making. As we move to concrete products that can 

actually be used, we can envision these as subsets of the 

bigger framework.

 Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—Strategic Plan for Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, Southern Calif.
On the basis of input from external participants attending 

workshops during the winter of 2006, we have identified four 

initial priority areas for community support. These are our 

first-pass priorities and will be modified as necessary throughout the duration of the project. First is the integration of 

mapped hazards and expected consequences into risk and decision-making tools that individuals and communities can use to 

evaluate alternative actions. The development of analytical and 

numerical tools to access the information in this system will 

be a key aspect of the project framework.

Second is helping decision makers to develop planning 

scenarios and quantifying anticipated consequences of future 

events so they can do a better job of emergency preparedness 

and planning. These scenarios are needed for all the hazards 

and need to convey the range of anticipated consequences, 

including the social and economic outcomes. This can be 

understood as one specific path through the influence diagram 

by setting the hazard probability to one for only one specific 

event.

Third is to improve upon the mapping of urban hazards. 

Maps are needed that specifically assess the probabilities of 

different hazard occurrence and their likely magnitude. For 

example: Is the threat to a given site greater for flooding or 

landslides? Where is earthquake shaking amplification most 

severe? These are a geographical representation of the upper 

part of the influence diagram, the hazard and environment 

susceptibility, for all the hazards.

Hazards

(Probability of some

magnitude, etc.)

Environments

(Urban, geologic, hydrologic,

ecologic)

Disaster

(Failure of systems)

Outcomes

(Economic, life safety,

ecologic)

Strategy

Costs

Risk Reduction

Strategies

Response

Strategies

Figure 2. Guiding framework for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project.

Table 1. Secondary hazard triggering events.

Earthquakes Landslides and 

debris flows

Wildfires Floods Coastal erosion Tsunamis

Secondary hazard 

effects

Landslides, tsunamis, 

fires (especially during 

wind season), floods 

from dam failures

 Floods, tsunamis, 

coastal erosion

Floods and debris 

flows

Landslides and 

debris flows, 

spread of disease

Landslides, dangerous currentsFlooding, 

contamination, spread 

of disease, 

fires, coastal 

erosion

Project Principles 
The fourth priority is providing real-time information. 

For some hazards, knowing the ongoing processes can help 

mitigate the consequences. For instance, real-time debrisflow risk (determined from short-term rainfall prediction and 

geologic susceptibility) can be used to target evacuations. 

Near-real-time earthquake shaking maps can be used to guide 

rescue operations to the most heavily shaken areas. Participants also expressed the need for products that will allow them 

to postulate and evaluate choices for a risk-reduction strategy. 

This will be support for the response decision box in the influence diagram.

Activities are being designed with our existing and new 

partners to accelerate the development and dissemination of 

information. This will include working with partners from 

academic institutions to support research that will lead to 

future generations of tools that communities can use. We will 

also work with the earth observation networks of the USGS 

(seismic, geodetic, ground movement, stream gages, and land 

cover) and partners in southern California to ensure their 

continued and enhanced operations. We will work together to 

develop a new generation of monitoring products that provide 

greater situational awareness for emergency responders.

First-Year Goals

Our goal is to provide hazards information in the form 

of concrete products needed to support communities in the 

decision-making process. The research needs for urban-hazard products are highly interdependent, as table 1 illustrates, 

highlighting the need for cross-cutting research products and 

interactive analytical tools designed for decision makers’ use. 

Our first-year and out-year goals incorporate these needs and 

are influenced by the two-way communication that continues 

to take place among scientists and between scientists and community decision makers. The working groups will have solidified during the first year, and we list them here to categorize 

the project activities. All four areas will require significant 

integration of research across scientific disciplines and with 

community partners.

Integration and Implementation Interface 

Working Group

Scenario development. The first round of strategic 

planning workshops with our user community highlighted a 

high-priority need for planning scenarios that can be used to 

devise hazard-response training exercises for their organizations. The community wants hazard information provided in 

a form that is accessible to and understandable by decision 

makers. During the first year, a scenario will be developed that 

describes the pre-event and post-event risks and probabilities 

associated with a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers landslides (including one underwater) and a dam failure. 

The scenario will incorporate the general consequences associated with the potential impacts of a strong earthquake (for 

example, expected shaking intensity, secondary effects such as 

liquefaction and subsequent lateral spreading, and variations 

in site conditions based on soil type), landslide (for example, 

probability of initiation made on the basis of shaking intensity, 

rock type, slope steepness, and soil moisture conditions), and 

potential tsunami (probability based on landslide displacement 

characteristics and historical activity, impact on coastal communities from run-up height and inundation estimates). The 

potential area that can be inundated by flood waters released 

by a dam failure will be identified. Moreover, the scenario 

will demonstrate the effect on infrastructure such as highways, airports, railroads, marine facilities, communications, 

water supply and waste disposal, electrical power, natural gas, 

and petroleum fuels. A key element of the scenario will be 

software that can illustrate the levels of damage on the basis of 

structure types (for example, unreinforced masonry compared 

with steel moment frame), age of structure, and hazard-retrofitting history of structure. A related study, begun in 2006, will 

focus on the effect of an earthquake on water supplies and on 

how to use ground water to compensate.

Relationship of Working Groups to U.S. Geological Survey Science Centers and Programs

Working group Science centers of most participants Primary funding programs

Integration and Implementation Interface All science centers All programs

Earthquakes and Tsunamis Earthquake Hazards, Western Coastal and 

Marine

Earthquake Hazards, Coastal and Marine 

Geology

Fire and Debris Flows Geologic Hazards, Western Ecologic Research 

Center, California Water Science Center, 

Earth Resources Observation System (EROS) 

Science Center

Landslide Hazards, Ecosystems, Geographic 

Analysis and Monitoring, Land Remote 

Sensing

Winter Storm Events California Water Science Center, Geologic 

Hazards, Western Coastal and Marine

National Streamflow Information, Landslide 

Hazards, Geographic Analysis and Monitoring, Coastal and Marine Geology

 Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—Strategic Plan for Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, Southern Calif.
Community interface. We will start a training program 

that will serve as a continuing process for helping communities use our products. The program will expand in FY 2008 to 

support the use of the new products that will be generated by 

this project. The information exchange will take place during 

scheduled workshops that will focus on developing effective 

mechanisms of communication between the decision makers 

and scientists before, during, and after hazard events. Two-way 

information exchange that guides the development of planning scenario content for use by the decision makers will take 

place during workshops and staff exchange programs. We aim 

to provide accurate and complete information to support those 

entities that provide outreach and education to the public and 

to promote interaction between users and scientific partners.

Information management. A large quantity of data 

has been accumulated for southern California for different 

purposes, in different formats, and for different geographical 

regions. We will be more efficient if we make use of all the 

existing pieces of relevant data. However, work is necessary to 

determine what data exist and how they may be useful. During 

the first year, we will focus on inventorying the data resources, 

determining both the needs and capabilities of researchers and 

partners, and developing a management plan for the most costeffective information management strategy.

Risk modeling. We will initiate a risk-assessment methodology of multiple natural hazards in southern California 

that incorporates conditional (triggered secondary) hazard 

probabilities over a range of hazard magnitudes and severities. 

Probabilities of changes in land-cover, land-use, and demographics will be incorporated into model alternative futures for 

the communities. The work will involve the consolidation of 

hypotheses and empirical findings from the economic literature on risk reduction into a single decision framework. A key 

product will be the development of a tool to reveal decisionmaker preferences regarding the key elements of the decision 

framework.

Earthquakes and Tsunamis Working Group

Southern San Andreas Fault. The southern San Andreas 

Fault is recognized as southern California’s most likely source 

of future great earthquakes, but the past history of great earthquakes and the rate at which strain is accumulating towards 

the next big earthquake is poorly understood. We will study 

the southern San Andreas Fault to improve the accuracy of 

hazard assessments of the region and to determine the likelihood of another large earthquake on this fault segment.

Tsunami source. We will move toward a probabilistic 

assessment of tsunami inundation in southern California 

by developing an improved understanding of local tsunami 

sources and the likely time history of their activity. We will 

re-examine all available geophysical and core data to improve 

upon our characterizations of tsunami sources and obtain 

better chronologic control on available core samples near 

faults and large landslides to better define history of activity 

and recurrence intervals.

Microzonation. Loose soils and basin deposits locally 

amplify seismic shaking and can be responsible for substantial 

damage. The fastest population growth in southern California 

is occurring in basins near the San Andreas Fault, including 

the San Bernardino, Coachella, and Antelope Valleys. We will 

compile existing data on these basins to develop a preliminary 

shaking amplification model and determine which data are 

needed to accurately quantify this risk.

Fire and Debris Flows Working Group

Fuel treatments on stability. Soil erosion after large 

wildfires degrades both the ecologic and urban environments. 

We will evaluate how vegetation age and landscape fuels affect 

the rates of erosion following fires, using vegetation age, 

sediment, and remote imaging data.

Vegetation-type conversions. The shrublands of southern 

California have undergone significant change of vegetation 

type in the last century as human activity has brought exotic 

species to the ecosystems. We will begin the evaluation of the 

invasive species-fire cycle to determine what role 

conversion of ecosystems is playing in fire frequency.

Post-fire debris-flow susceptibility. The incidence of 

debris flows after fires is controlled by the topography and 

geology of the slope, the severity of the burning, and the 

intensity and duration of rainfall. Models to predict post-fire 

debris-flow probabilities, magnitudes, and potential inundation 

areas using measures of basin shape and materials, burn severity, and storm data will be modified and tested for the southern 

California environment.

Post-fire erosion. The southern California ecosystem is 

home to the greatest concentration of endangered species in 

the Nation. We will develop models and methods to map postfire physical processes and effects on rare and endangered 

aquatic populations.

Debris-flow warning system. The results of the southern 

California models will be used to develop a flash-flood and 

debris-flow early warning system for release by NOAA for 

recently burned basins. The warning system will compare 

rainfall forecasts and rain-gage data with rainfall threshold 

conditions.

Debris-flow inundation. Identify areas susceptible to 

debris-flow inundation through a combination of empirical 

and modeling approaches to (1) identify likely source areas for 

debris-flow initiation, (2) estimate likely debris-flow volumes 

and peak discharges, and (3) determine areas likely to be 

inundated by debris flows. Debris-flow source-area identification will be a combined mapping and Geographic Information 

System (GIS) endeavor. Mapping of recent debris flows by 

field and remote sensing techniques will provide an empirical 

data base of debris-flow initiation locations that can be analyzed within a GIS to assess likely controlling factors such as 

topography (including slope, hill-slope curvature, and aspect), 

geology, soils, land-use, and recent disturbance history (such 

as fire).

First-Year Goals 
Winter Storm Events Working Group

Gaging (streams, rain). Install new stream and rain 

gages in southern California to improve flood and debris-flow 

forecasting, and real-time monitoring and warning capabilities. The gage locations are being selected with input from 

local water agencies and the National Weather Service to fill 

in gaps in the existing ALERT network. The gages will be 

constructed, instrumented, and operated to provide real-time 

streamflow information on the web during FY 2007 for access 

to all interested users.

Flood frequency analysis. Winter storms can produce 

significant flood runoff and debris flows from basins throughout Southern California. Distinguishing flood flows from 

debris flows is critical to the proper assessment of flood risk, 

but there is no USGS database for debris flows. A database for 

compiling and storing debris-flow data for USGS gaged sites, 

similar to the Peak Flow File for flood data, will be developed. 

Assessing flood risk also requires information about magnitude and probability of occurrence (frequency) of annual peak 

flood discharges. Long-term flood-discharge data are available for the analysis at more than 100 USGS stream gages in 

southern California, many of which provide flow information 

on a near real-time basis via the web. Flood-frequency characteristics will be revised and prepared for publication during 

FY 2007.

Coastal erosion. Severe winter storms have eroded 

seacoasts, leading to major economic losses. We will develop 

tools to assess coastal vulnerability to severe storm impact 

based on elevation and morphology data.

Potential Out-Year Goals

We envision this project going in several productive 

directions depending on the fruitfulness of first-year pilot 

programs, community input, and funding. Setting priorities for 

these future research directions will be guided by the Planning 

and Steering Committees to take into account the research 

needs of partner agencies and decision makers.

Integration and Implementation Interface 

Working Group

Common database and urban hazard mapping. An 

essential need voiced by the emergency response and planning communities during the Winter 2006 workshops was the 

need for trustworthy hazard data pulled together in one place 

and made easily accessible (“integrated data management”). 

As a result, a map product that will result from the research 

and cross-discipline projects will be a space-time GIS that has 

multiple layers including the extents, likelihoods, temporal 

aspects, and regional vulnerabilities of multiple hazards 

that can be used as input to an urban risk assessment in 

southern California. The goal of the GIS is to accept and 

incorporate measurements from real-time monitoring networks 

and updated science products to assist in crises and longer 

term planning. A complete geotechnical database will serve as 

the starting point for long-term mitigation projects, short-term 

warning activities, hazard event emergency response, and postevent response and recovery. For example, this map product 

could allow end-users to conduct a geographical search of 

their scale of interest in order to investigate the level of risk 

associated with any one or multiple hazards at that location 

given the uncertainty of the information at the resolution of 

the location. Such information will improve the implementation of building codes, land-use planning decisions, and 

engineering design and retrofit decisions.

Hazard scenarios. We envision creating a suite of scenarios to support emergency planning for many disasters and 

to better manage mitigation activities. For the second year, 

we plan a scenario that will focus on a winter storm event 

that involves landslides, flooding, and coastal change. A key 

watershed will be selected with input from the southern California emergency managers to pilot a real-time flood-hazard 

modeling tool. An interactive, web-based user interface will 

be developed. Other earthquakes, wildfires, and combined 

disasters are also possible.

The third-year scenario will focus on the effects of wildfires, and subsequent floods and debris flows. The scenario 

will describe the consequences associated with the ignition of 

a fire in mountain steep lands; expected fire behavior based 

on vegetation type, condition, and landscape; and emergency 

response expectations based on transportation corridor and 

infrastructure impact. It will incorporate potential real-time 

tools to assess hazards posed by post-fire debris flows and 

floods to human infrastructure, wildlife, and aquatic habitats 

in the event of a subsequent winter storm. Risk will be evaluated in terms of probability, magnitude, and area of impact. 

The capabilities and limitations of existing warning systems 

for post-fire floods and debris flows will be illustrated.

Risk analysis for decision making. Our risk analysis 

work will create an environment for decision makers to assess 

alternative policies to improve the resiliency of southern 

California to multiple natural hazards. This work will take the 

form of an interactive simulation or game experiment embedded within a GIS that is informed by improved understanding of multiple hazards and interactions, quantification of 

the social and economic assets that are vulnerable, improved 

understanding of mitigation effectiveness, and lessons learned 

from work with our partners. We expect to develop tools that 

could be used to evaluate issues such as benefits and costs of 

risk-reduction options, relative roles of private insurance and 

government intervention, determination of acceptable risk, 

and scientific uncertainties for emergency response planning 

scenarios and long-term planning. These tools will provide an 

interactive approach for individual and institutional users to 

understand the risks and consequences of a range of multiple 

natural hazards and solutions. This effort also will examine how well our science products are serving or can serve 

decision makers and will help USGS scientists prioritize the 

development of future science products.

 Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—Strategic Plan for Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, Southern Calif.
Impact of natural disasters on endangered ecosystems. 

Leading conservation biologists rank the California Floristic 

Province, especially southern California, as one of the top 

18 regions on the planet for biological diversity. Many species 

of plants and animals are found only in California, and many 

are threatened or endangered. Natural disasters, especially 

landslides and floods, can radically alter ecosystem habitats 

and put further strain on endangered populations. Moreover, 

our data have shown that roads and fuel breaks become barriers to movement within reserves for various sensitive species 

in southern California. This project will assess the population 

and genetic consequences of natural disasters and mitigation 

measures to prevent losses in disasters for several target species and predict what impacts the activities will have on these 

species under the future build-out scenarios. After different 

natural disasters, the USGS will carry out studies to understand the impact on different species.

Impact of natural hazards on water supplies, ground 

water, and watershed stability. A disruption to water supplies 

in southern California is a dire threat to the economic viability 

and social well-being of the region. Different natural disasters 

pose different, but potentially significant, threats to the southern California water supply. Earthquakes on the San Andreas 

Fault can cut off all aqueducts carrying imported water to the 

region. Other earthquakes have the potential of disrupting 

water delivery systems. Wildfires can damage the shrubland 

ecosystems surrounding most urban environments in southern 

California that provide watershed cover. Sedimentation from 

debris flows and floods can impair water quality. We can analyze and compare the different threats to our water supply and 

evaluate the cost effectiveness of mitigable actions.

Earthquakes and Tsunamis Working Group

Earthquake-rupture chronology and slip rates for the 

southern San Andreas system in the last 2,000 years. The 

southern San Andreas Fault is recognized as southern California’s most likely source of future great earthquakes, with 20 

million people likely to be affected by such an event. Evidence 

is increasing that the fault has already exceeded the average 

time between great (magnitude about 8) events by more than 

50 percent; however, recent geologic studies suggest that the 

hazard from this significant fault is uncertain by a factor of 

three. A systematic study of the earthquake history of the 

southernmost 550 kilometers of the fault through geologic 

studies (paleoseismology) to determine the rate of past events 

and how regularly they occurred will constrain the rate of 

earthquakes and the hazard of this catastrophic event.

Time-dependent earthquake-hazard maps. The methodologies employed in producing the USGS national and 

urban seismic hazard maps assume the hazard does not change 

with time. However, the potential for an earthquake on a 

fault increases with time from the last earthquake and may be 

modified by nearby conditions. Time-varying hazard maps 

are needed throughout the Nation. In addition, the occurrence 

of one earthquake makes another more likely. The USGS has 

developed significant capability in quantifying the increase in 

hazard likelihood and has a prototype product (daily earthquake hazard maps) that shows the chance of earthquake shaking in the next 24 hours.

Earthquake site effects. Assessing the damage potential of earthquakes depends critically on local soil conditions 

and the structures of basins and valleys that can amplify 

the shaking from earthquakes. Three of the fastest growing 

areas of southern California are the Antelope Valley, the San 

Bernardino Valley, and the Coachella Valley—all valleys 

where site amplification could play a major role in increasing damage from big earthquakes. To better understand the 

nature of this risk, we must determine the subsurface structure 

of these basins. Seismic refraction techniques (such as used 

for oil exploration) will be used to determine the shape of the 

basins. This can then be modeled to understand which areas 

are most susceptible to resonance and other shaking amplification mechanisms. The same data will be useful in modeling ground-water systems to better understand local water 

resources in case a disaster cuts off outside water supplies.

Mapping of Probabilistic earthquake-induced landslide 

hazards. Current hazard maps only provide a binary landside 

susceptibility rating that does not provide a basis for prioritizing the risk or possible mitigable responses. Applied research 

is needed to determine what controls the relative likelihood of 

earthquake-induced landsliding, including the relative contributions of slope, bedrock geology, alluvial cover, and intensity, frequency, and duration of earthquake shaking in southern 

California. The results of this research could be combined 

with probabilistic earthquake hazard information to give a 

picture of the comparative likelihood of landsliding during 

earthquakes.

Earthquake early warning. Most damage in earthquakes 

is caused by the shaking from seismic waves. These waves 

travel at the speed of sound in rocks from the fault that produces the earthquake, dying off with distance from the fault. In 

very large earthquakes, the fault can produce the shaking for 

many minutes and these waves can cause substantial damage even at great distances from the fault. Thus, in very large 

earthquakes it is possible to transmit (at the speed of light) the 

information that an earthquake is underway and receive that 

information at more distant sites before the earthquake waves 

themselves arrive. This type of system has recently been created in Japan and Mexico. Knowing that an earthquake will 

begin in 10-60 seconds can be used in automatic systems to 

reduce losses by actions such as securing hazardous materials, 

stopping trains, and shutting down nuclear reactors.

Potential Out-Year Goals 
Assessing the potential for local tsunamis from earthquake-induced offshore landslides and fault movement. 

Given the relative rarity of direct observations in any specific 

locale, the assessment of tsunami hazard potential depends on 

model formulations linking geologic processes and structures 

to tsunami generation, propagation, and impact. We know 

that past earthquakes have triggered offshore landslides that 

have in turn produced locally damaging tsunamis. A local 

tsunami that damages the Ports of Los Angeles and Long 

Beach and concentrated coastal developments will have major 

financial and social impact on the region. Research is needed 

to quantify the hazard magnitudes and likelihoods to better 

understand how large such a tsunami could be. Significant offshore bathymetric mapping has been completed in the last few 

years, but about one-third of the mainland slope has not been 

mapped using state-of-the-art technology. Quantification of the 

tsunami hazard needs a completion of the bathymetric mapping, assessment of the data to identify potentially tsunamic 

landslide deposits and active faults, determination of the ages 

of these landslides and time of most recent fault movement, 

modeling of the movement of these landslides, and modeling 

of associated tsunamis and synthesis of data within a probabilistic framework. These tsunami research and hazard assessment studies will be coordinated with partners in the Southern 

California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS).

Fire and Debris-Flow Working Group

Post-fire flood and debris-flow hazard assessment and 

early warning. Web-based tools to characterize post-fire 

debris-flow and flash-flood susceptibility, magnitude, and 

inundation area in response to storm rainfall conditions can 

be used to assess these potential hazards on a basin scale. 

Because the tools developed in this task will rely on data 

that are readily available both before and immediately after 

wildfires, they will be useful to land management agencies 

both in pre-fire planning and post-fire response. Application 

of the predictive models before the occurrence of wildfires can 

help identify sensitive drainage basins and thus direct forest 

restoration efforts. Rapid application of these tools post-fire 

will provide information necessary to provide warnings and to 

make effective and appropriate mitigation and planning decisions. Assessments of risks from post-fire floods and debris 

flows to human life and property, and to wildlife and aquatic 

habitats both immediately post-fire and over longer time 

periods can be used to create response plans.

Evaluation of how pre-fire fuel manipulations affect 

watershed stability and subsequent downstream impacts. 

Shrubland ecosystems surround most urban environments in 

southern California and provide many important benefits to 

communities. One of the more critical values is as a watershed 

cover, and this ecosystem service becomes more apparent 

following wildfires when the vegetative cover has been temporarily eliminated. Twentieth-century urban expansion has 

used much of the desirable coastal plain real estate and forced 

development ever closer to steep slopes in the surrounding 

mountain ranges, typically adjacent to federal lands. Increased 

potential for flooding, sudden debris flows, and erosion are 

factors that pose major hazards for these urban environments 

and affect natural resources. There are three areas where new 

research is needed: (1) Using several decades of sedimentproduction data in the Los Angeles Basin, coupled with past 

fire history data, we will analyze the extent to which vegetation-age and landscape-fuel mosaics can alter rates of erosion 

following fires; (2) We will relate remote-image algorithms 

using Landsat images to assess fire intensity to both real 

potential for sediment loss and vegetation recovery after fire; 

and (3) Debris-flow events have reduced or removed sensitive 

and endangered frogs and fish from entire watersheds. Understanding and predicting where these events will take place and 

what resources are at risk is a priority for managing the last 

remaining populations of these formerly widespread species 

and communities.

Integrated approach to watershed risk assessment. We 

can apply an integrated approach to watershed risk assessment 

that examines all potential natural hazards expected to impact 

an area, and considers the spatial and temporal aspects of a 

hazard and the potential for interaction among hazards. Specific to the fire hazard, this approach will consider fuel loadings, effects of fuel treatment programs, pre-event long-term 

climatic conditions and rainfall regime, and potential resources 

at risk at the site of the hazard and downstream. The potential 

for deleterious effects on water resources including impacts 

on municipal water supplies, both surface and subsurface, will 

receive special attention.

Impact of past fire activity on vegetation type conversion. Accelerated fire activity is responsible for major losses 

of natural shrubland ecosystems and replacement by nonnative annual grasses and forbs. Type conversion has implications both for conservation and human safety through impacts 

to ecosystem functioning and fire regime. Loss of native 

shrublands greatly decreases the structural complexity of 

ecosystem communities and landscapes, and is responsible for 

the loss of critical components of the flora and fauna, including rare species and keystone species. When these shrublands 

are displaced by non-native grasslands, the functional types 

change from deeply rooted shrubs to shallow-rooted annuals, 

which alters the water-holding capacity and erosion potential 

of watersheds. This sometimes increases the potential for 

debris slides in the absence of other disturbances such as fire. 

These types of conversions also alter the risk of fires owing to 

the easily combustible nature of grasses relative to shrublands, 

often greatly extending the normal fire season. Two tasks 

are anticipated: The first task will take advantage of a 

35-year remote imaging database (Landsat), which is capable 

of detecting vegetation changes at a relatively fine scale. 

Documenting the massive scale of past type conversion will be 

a critical first warning to future hazards. The second task will 

examine biodiversity and trophic response and recovery from 

landscape fires in San Diego. This five-year study addresses 

these presumed changes in flora and fauna to the vegetation 

10 Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—Strategic Plan for Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, Southern Calif.
type conversion and takes advantage of extensive pre-fire 

USGS data.

Assess effectiveness of pre-fire fuel management 

strategies on southern California fire behavior and reducing urban impacts from fire. California leads the Nation in 

fire losses. Since 1970, 12 of the Nation’s 15 most destructive 

wildfires have occurred in California, costing the insurance 

industry $4.8 billion, the most destructive being the southern 

California firestorms of October 2003. We will conduct an 

empirical study of how past fuel-manipulation projects in 

southern California have affected the progression of historical fires in the region. In addition, fire behavior models will 

be used to relate landscape patterns of fuels, topography, 

climate, and wind patterns to predictions of fire spread under 

different scenarios of fuel placement. This project also will 

include consideration of land planning scenarios of future 

build-out provided by urban growth models. The most useful 

product will be maps that distinguish important topographic 

fire corridors that are most likely to affect urban environments 

and placement of fuel treatments to minimize vulnerability of 

communities. This research will involve USGS researchers 

collaborating with land managers and scientists from the U.S. 

Forest Service and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management.

Assess effectiveness of pre-fire fuel management strategies on southern California biodiversity and ecosystem stability. The impact of fuel treatments and fuel breaks to biodiversity and fragmentation within the remaining wildlands will 

be assessed with an emphasis on the recently formed Habitat 

Conservation Plans authorized by the Endangered Species Act. 

USGS data have shown that roads and fuel breaks become barriers to movement within reserves for various sensitive species 

in southern California. This project will assess the population 

and genetic consequences of these types of barriers for several 

target species and predict what impacts the fuel modifications will have on these species under the future build-out 

scenarios and how urban fire risk-reduction strategies can be 

successfully integrated into the reserve design for maintaining 

biodiversity in the region. This research will involve USGS 

researchers collaborating with other Department of the Interior 

scientists.

Winter Storm Events Working Group

Developing tools for predicting flooding and debris 

flows at ungaged sites. After flood-frequency information is 

updated at gaged sites, new predictive equations for estimation of flood magnitude and probability at ungaged sites in 

southern California will be developed using Generalized Least 

Squares regression techniques. Equations will be incorporated 

into a web-based program (StreamStats) that enables users 

to quickly obtain flood estimates at ungaged sites by simply 

clicking the site locations on a web map. Similar predictive 

equations currently under development for estimating the 

probability of occurrence and volume of deposited material 

from debris flows also will be incorporated into the 

StreamStats program. Research will be initiated to understand 

and better determine risk in watersheds subject to both floods 

and debris flows (mixed-population analysis). As the risk from 

both processes becomes better understood, predictive methods in the StreamStats program will be modified as necessary 

to better convey the risk information. Insofar as possible, 

the StreamStats application for Southern California will be 

designed to provide flood and debris-flow risk information to 

local officials in easy-to-understand, non-technical terms.

Real-time model predictions of coastal erosion and 

flooding. This will involve taking our short-term goal of generally assessing coastal vulnerability to erosion and flooding, 

and integrating these data into a fully operational, real-time 

coastal warning system. The web-based interface will feature a 

real-time model driven by the most up-to-date coastal conditions (specifically, wind, waves, and tides) with the product 

being an hourly hazard assessment of the southern California 

coastline. Using the state-of-the-art Delf3D integrated hydrodynamic and wave model and the most up-to-date topographic 

(specifically, Light Detection And Ranging - LIDAR) and 

bathymetric (specifically, multi-beam) data, this operational 

model will provide invaluable information to the full range of 

coastal users, particularly during the winter storm season. It 

will allow resources to be allocated in areas of greatest risk, 

and warnings to be issued to beachgoers where dangerous 

conditions exist. Development of this warning system will be 

closely coordinated with partners in the Southern California 

Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS).

Rapid assessment of methods for characterizing and 

assessing errors in streamflow data. Many planning and 

design decisions are predicated on assumptions that streamflow data are complete and accurate. In fact there are multiple 

sources of error in streamflow records. A rapid and accurate 

method to estimate and evaluate these uncertainties is needed. 

The inherent difficulties of collecting streamflow records in 

southern California make it a prime area to design and develop 

methods for characterizing and assessing errors in flow 

measurements, instruments, and rating curves.

Forcing mechanisms on changes in streamflow. Time 

series of streamflow records in many areas indicate decadescale changes in flow volumes and flow duration curves. The 

frequency of extreme events may be changing. El Niño signals 

may offer an opportunity to predict some of these changes, and 

paleoflood techniques may offer a chance to document trends 

over long periods of time. Many basins in southern California 

have evolved from undisturbed to agricultural to urban in the 

last 50–100 years, and some stream-gaging stations have operated throughout these changes. These sites need to be studied 

to evaluate the impacts of changes in land use and regulation 

on flow statistics such as duration series and flood frequencies.

Potential Out-Year Goals 11
Comprehensive assessment of landslide hazards and 

early warning. Although landslides often result in millions of 

dollars of damage, and even deaths, during rainy winters in 

southern California, no comprehensive evaluation of landslide 

hazards exists for the region. We propose the development and 

application of reliable and accurate landslide prediction tools 

that are appropriate to southern California. We will develop 

methods and models that use LIDAR and other high-resolution 

remotely sensed data to characterize landslide susceptibility or 

probability in response to seismic, climatic, or artificial disturbances. Physically based models of landslide processes can be 

coupled with methods for identifying the hydrologic precursors to landslide failure (either of large, deep-seated landslides 

or shallow landslides that generate debris flows), and with 

methods for real-time monitoring of hill-slope hydrologic conditions. Incorporation of quantitative precipitation forecasts 

and measurements into these models can result in spatially and 

temporally specific real-time warnings for landslides. Models 

that can be used to define potential areas that can be inundated 

by debris flows will be developed and integrated into the 

warning system. The improved hazard assessment approaches 

developed here will provide critical information on landslide 

occurrence at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to 

planners, decision makers, and emergency managers.

Partnerships and Collaborations

An important feature of the project is that the USGS will 

work with partners and collaborators in southern California 

to apply the results of scientific research to loss reduction and 

to guide the direction of future research activities. Existing 

and new partnerships and activities will be designed with 

external input to accelerate the development and dissemination of information needed to create a disaster-resistant 

southern California. These collaborators will directly guide the 

research, resulting products, and implementation (fig. 3). The 

development of new partnerships and collaborations, as well 

as strengthening of existing partnerships and collaborations, is 

key to the project’s success.

Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, 

three strategic planning workshops were held in February and 

March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to 

determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation 

efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response 

efforts during and after the event. Potential partners who were 

invited and who participated in these workshops included 

state, county, city, and public lands government agencies; public and private utilities; companies with a significant impact 

and presence in Southern California; FEMA; NOAA; and 

local emergency response agencies. Workshop participants’ 

input was instrumental in developing the structure of the 

project and in developing short-term and long-term products 

and activities.

Many research projects will be conducted with appropriate partners. For instance, the study of the recurrence history 

of the Southern San Andreas Fault will be carried out with the 

Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) at the University of Southern California, and the debris flow early warning system is being created in cooperation with the National 

Weather Service. Significant resources of the project will be 

used to support training programs and other support 

mechanisms for the utilization of the southern California 

region.

Governance

Management of the project will be by the MHDP Chief 

Scientist who will report to the USGS Regional Executive. 

The Chief Scientist will chair a Planning Committee of USGS 

scientists representing the four working groups. The Planning Committee will meet at least quarterly and will decide 

the level of effort for tasks and distribution of project funds 

following this Strategic Plan and guidance by an external 

Steering Committee. The Chief Scientist and members of the 

Planning Committee will ensure that priorities are maintained 

for the several USGS programs funding the work and that 

the needs of Program Coordinators for tracking progress and 

producing measurable results are met.

A Steering Committee will be formed to serve as an 

external advisory body for the project. The original Steering 

Committee will be drawn from existing cooperators and partners, identified by the Planning Committee. Future changes to 

the membership will be decided jointly by the Steering Committee itself and the Chief Scientist, with nominations from 

the Planning Committee. The Steering Committee will have 

up to ten members, and include representatives of local city, 

county, and State governments (including emergency managers and land-use planners), Federal agencies, and private sector 

partners. The purpose of the Steering Committee is to ensure 

that the project adheres to its original objectives summarized 

by the mission statement. The main tasks of the Steering Committee are to provide the project with guidance on objectives, 

and short-term and long-term goals, and to review progress 

and results on behalf of the southern California community. 

It will meet at least twice a year with the Chief Scientist and 

Planning Committee to evaluate how project activities have 

satisfied community needs. This discussion will include oversight of the coordination among disciplines, and the working 

relationships with decision makers and their involvement in 

the project. The Steering Committee will prioritize training 

and outreach activities and recommend modifications to the 

project based on feedback on the effectiveness and usefulness 

of research activities.

12  Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—Strategic Plan for Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, Southern Calif.
Working Groups

Integration and

Implementation Interface

Earthquakes and Tsunamis

Fire and Debris Flows

Winter Storm Events

Working Groups

Scenario planning and 

training

Urban-hazard mapping

Real-time monitoring

and warning

Risk and decision-making

analysis

Research and Interface

Priorities and Products

NOAA

Dept. of Homeland Security

Emergency Response Officials

Business Community

Academic Institutions

U.S. National Forest Service

U.S. National Park Service

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Public Lands

Residential

Utilities

Financial Institutions

Infrastructure

City and State

Users, Partners,

and Collaborators

Figure 3. Relationships among the Southern California Multi-Hazards 

Demonstration Project working groups (MHDP), their research and interface 

priorities and products, and the end users, partners, and collaborators. 

Governance 13
Each year the Steering Committee will discuss the longterm direction of the project in light of funding potential and 

will provide advice on changes to the project’s strategic plan. 

The membership of the Steering Committee may change as the 

project matures, to reflect changes in the degree of exposure 

in business, government, and private sector communities. The 

Steering Committee will also provide advice on the implementation practices and management structure to make sure 

that it remains on target with the project’s vision, mission, and 

objectives.

Metrics of Progress

The measures of success of this project will require 

more than the success of its constitutive parts and more than 

success of the USGS. That is, the multi-hazards project will 

have been successful if planning for, reacting to and recovery 

after a natural hazard did not have a high impact on a community in terms of casualties, financial or capital loss, and 

environmental loss. However, such a metric is not directly 

measurable because it is external to the USGS and can only 

be assessed after the occurrence of an unpredictable natural 

event. The project will still use metrics to measure its progress 

and to determine whether research and technological development paths need to be expanded upon, modified, or abandoned 

altogether.

The elements of this project will be evaluated in two 

ways: under USGS program metrics that are already in place 

and identified in the budget process, and by their usefulness to 

multi-hazard products designed to increase community resilience. Formal metrics will be developed in consultation with 

the Steering Committee after it is formed.

All components of the project are also parts of USGS 

programs (for example, Earthquake Hazards Program, 

National Streamflow Information Program, etc.) and must fulfill the performance measures of those programs as submitted 

to Congress in the USGS budget. For FY 2007, these include

Formal workshops or training provided to customers.

Systematic analyses and investigations delivered to 

customers.

County, or comparable jurisdiction, that has adopted 

improved building codes, land-use plans, emergency 

response plans, or other hazard mitigation measures 

based on USGS earthquake hazards information.

Partnership formed to link scientific information and 

societal decisions.

New stream gages reporting in NWIS Web (of the 

National Water Information System)

In addition, the activities in this project must contribute 

to the integrated goal of supporting the southern California 

population in disaster resiliency. All research products will 

be evaluated by their ability to contribute to the primary goals 

of the project (for example, risk and probability assessment, 

real-time monitoring and warning, economic and societal 

impact, and contribution to scenario plans). The basic-research 

projects will also be examined for their scientific rigor and 

the degree to which they complement ongoing research and 

interface activities. Other measures of progress will include 

the project’s exposure in business, government, and private 

sector communities; the number of requests for information; 

how much and what kind of information is requested; how 

new materials have been used; increased, complementary communication with other response organizations; and the number 

and distribution of new partners who have become involved 

(and with whom the USGS has not previously been involved).

•

•

•

•

•

14  Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—Strategic Plan for Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, Southern Calif.
Appendix A—FY 2007 Implementation 

Plan

To realize its objectives and accomplish its short-term 

goals, the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project needs to 

encompass the full range of hazard activities in southern 

California without assuming control of all activities within 

each hazard area. Project-directed research will be carried out 

in coordination with existing research programs. However, 

the demonstration project will feature strong emphasis on 

implementation of science findings by the community. Project 

scientists will be fully engaged with the community in product 

development and training. Scientists will also formulate a unified planning process in which the research goals for all hazards are set together in consultation with the user community. 

Accountability and leadership, with funding tied to deliverables and milestones, will be the key to successful operation.

Operational Structure

We will organize the Multi-Hazards Demonstration 

Project in Southern California around four research working groups: (1) Integration and Implementation Interface, (2) 

Earthquakes and Tsunamis, (3) Fire and Debris Flows, and 

(4) Winter Storm Events (including flooding, landslides, and 

coastal erosion). The research working groups do not have a 

one-to-one relationship with existing USGS programs or cost 

centers. Often several programs are involved.

Decisions regarding research priorities, new and existing partnership development, and budget will be made by the 

project’s Chief Scientist, advised by a Planning Committee 

representing the programs involved. Both the Chief Scientist 

and the Planning Committee will ensure that the project meets 

objectives of this strategic plan and the needs of southern 

California as represented in the Steering Committee. Each 

member of the Planning Committee will be a senior scientist 

or Center Director representing one of the core activities. S/he 

will consult with the Program Coordinators whose funds are 

allocated to this activity. The Chief Scientist will report to the 

appropriate USGS Regional Executive. Lucy Jones will be the 

first Chief Scientist and report to Wes Ward.

Demonstration-project scientists will stay associated with 

their Cost Centers, which will provide facilities and supervision, and assess overhead. Overhead will follow the physical 

location (discipline housing) of the net expense. 

Future Research Priorities and Funding

The Chief Scientist and Planning Committee will meet 

once per quarter and will be responsible for deciding how the 

research money will be allocated based on research priorities and proposal/work plan submissions. They will interact 

with associated Team Chief Scientists who continue to have 

control over the day-to-day activities of the project-dedicated 

researchers. These quarterly meetings will serve to communicate to the group the status of project-dedicated tasks, illustrate how research funds were used, where the discipline is 

going with the research, and to identify possible hurdles in the 

research or communicate the need for a task to be significantly 

modified or abandoned for lack of progress. The Planning 

Committee also has the task of keeping the Program Coordinators informed about present and future project activities.

The Chief Scientist will enter into agreements with Cost 

Centers to carry out the activities to support the strategic plan. 

The full budget of the project will exist in a virtual sense. 

Actual program dollars will go to tasks on projects within Cost 

Centers. The agreement between the Chief Scientist and the 

Cost Centers to fund work is revocable if the Cost Centers are 

not performing.

Required Skills/Staffing

Project activities will be undertaken both by researchers who are expert in the individual hazards and by project 

support staff. The demonstration project will have a small 

number of full-time, cross-discipline members who provide 

shared functions to carry out the multi-hazard synthesis and 

interface with the user community. They will be assigned to a 

project administered by the California Water Science Center. 

These shared positions will be paid for as project expense. 

All participating programs will need to share in funding these 

shared positions.

Skills for the shared staff of the project team include 

training, science communication, Geographic Information 

Systems, database, and web development. Their expertise will 

be used to focus on 

Carrying out real-time data analysis and multihazard data synthesis by USGS researchers for 

response efforts.

Supporting Geographic Information Systems (GIS) 

software.

Developing and maintaining shared databases.

Developing hardcopy and electronic cross-discipline 

interface materials (fact sheets, scenario publications, 

etc.).

Carrying out multi-hazard data synthesis for mitigation 

and long-range planning.

Establishing and maintaining partnerships and 

collaborations.

Visiting partner organizations during scenario training 

exercise development, etc.

Interacting with emergency response centers (Office of 

Emergency Services, businesses, and local 

government).

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

Appendix A—FY 2007 Implementation Plan 15
Other work that includes research and product development will be conducted by researchers in existing Cost Centers. In general, at least one scientist for each hazard discipline 

should be physically located in southern California to encourage interaction. The Team Chief Scientists and their Planning 

Committee representatives will negotiate with the project to 

develop a plan for research and development with appropriate milestones to assure completion. The Chief Scientist will 

have authority to terminate funding if project milestones are 

not met. The scientists provide the fundamental information 

that is used in the risk and decision-making assessments, as 

well as the scenario plans. The research component activities 

will encompass product development such as prognostic tools 

(specifically, predictive models); targeted science research 

with guidance from the user community, and interface- and 

graphical-tool development for effective data dissemination, 

as well as providing urgently needed information for users and 

partners. The highest priority staff will be those needed to 

create these products.

Core Physical Facility

The project will consist of a physical central core that 

provides multi-hazard synthesis and interface with the user 

community, as well as links to the different research groups 

to support individual research projects. This physical central 

core will be located in the Los Angeles area and will house 

the cross-discipline interface staff members and support staff. 

It will serve as the nucleation point for the community and 

external partners to interact with USGS staff and researchers. 

The core of the hazard synthesis, cross-discipline interface 

materials, partner exchange program, and emergency response 

center interaction work will be based out of the physical location. Most of the researchers will continue to work out of their 

current program offices.

Workshops

A regular series of workshops will be scheduled with 

project scientists, project-dedicated staff members, and 

external partners. The objective will be to expand upon multihazard ideas first introduced during the February and March 

2006 workshops for inclusion into research and cross-discipline interface activities. The workshops will be arranged 

around common themes (for example, land-use planning, or 

emergency response) and will serve to provide input to and 

guide multi-hazards research activities, as well as inform the 

external partners of new and existing hazards data and training 

resources. The workshops will also provide the opportunity to 

further in-house (either at the multi-hazards project offices or 

at the partner’s work site) preparedness and scenario-training 

development.

16  Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—Strategic Plan for Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, Southern Calif.
Appendix B—Proposed FY 2007 Funding Allocation

Funding for the project comes from many different programs in the USGS. The work will be carried out in a large number 

of cost centers. We outline the initial resources expected for first-year research and interface activities. In doing this, we organize 

by the four working groups that will oversee all of the project’s work (table 2).

Appendix B—Proposed FY 2007 Funding Allocation 17

Table 2. Personnel and funding for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) in southern California—FY 2007. 

[Acronyms: CAWSC, California Water Science Center; CMG, Coastal and Marine Geology Program; EHP, Earthquake Hazards Program, EHT, Earthquake Hazards 

Team; EGSC, Eastern Geographic Science Center; EROS, Earth Resources Observation System Science Center; GAM, Geographic Analysis and Mapping, GHT, Geologic 

Hazards Team, GIO, Geospatial Information Office; LHP, Landslide Hazards Program, LRS, Land Remote Sensing; MCGSC, Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center; 

NGP, National Geospatial Program; NRP, National Research Program (Water); NSIP, National Streamflow Information Program; NWIS, National Water Information System

OWRG, Office of Western Region Geology; OSW, Office of Surface Water; RMGSC, Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center; SCEC, Southern California Earthquake 

Center; TFME, Terrestrial, Freshwater and Marine Ecosystems Program; WCMGT, Western Coastal and Marine Geology Team; WERC, Western Ecological Research 

Center; WGIO, Western Geospatial Information Office; WGSC, Western Geographic Science Center. (Every program will put 20 percent of new funds into a fund for shared 

activities described in Appendix A: Required Skills/Staffing)]r

Working groups Participants and cost centers 

(Task leader in bold) Funding FY 2007 program source tasks

Oversight and Management OWRG: Lucy Jones $140k MHDP

Integration and Implementation InterfaceEHP: $387k; GAM: $833k; NGP: $500k; LHP: $40k; CMG: $40k; 

TFME: $60k; NSIP: $40K

Scenario development: CAWSC: Lucy Jones, new hire $150k EHP, $100k NGP; $70k MHDP

EHP: external contract

Community interface CAWSC: Dale Cox, new hire $140k NGP; $100k MHDP

Information management EHT: Dan Ponti, John Tinsley $167k EHP 

EGSC: Paul Hearn $75k GAM

RMGSC: Sue Goplen $20k GAM

WGIO: Robert Lugo, Carol Ostegern, Kevin 

Wood

$260k NGP

Risk modeling WGSC: Rich Bernknopf, Anne Wein, Bill 

Labiosa, new hire

$425k GAM

EROS: Terry Sohl

RMGSC: David Hester $50k GAM

$203k GAM

Earthquakes and Tsunamis EHP: $541k; CMG: $180k

Southern San Andreas Fault EHT: Ken Hudnut, Tom Fumal, Katherine 

Kendrick, Gary Fuis

$201k EHP

External grant: SCEC

$240k EHP

Tsunami sources WCMGT: Homa Lee, Eric Geist $180k CMG

Microzonation EHT: Dan Ponti, John Tinsley, Sue Hough $100k EHP
Table 2. Personnel and funding for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) in southern California—FY 2007. 

[Acronyms: CAWSC, California Water Science Center; CMG, Coastal and Marine Geology Program; EHP, Earthquake Hazards Program, EHT, Earthquake Hazards 

Team; EGSC, Eastern Geographic Science Center; EROS, Earth Resources Observation System Science Center; GAM, Geographic Analysis and Mapping, GHT, Geologic 

Hazards Team, GIO, Geospatial Information Office; LHP, Landslide Hazards Program, LRS, Land Remote Sensing; MCGSC, Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center; 

NGP, National Geospatial Program; NRP, National Research Program (Water); NSIP, National Streamflow Information Program; NWIS, National Water Information System; 

OWRG, Office of Western Region Geology; OSW, Office of Surface Water; RMGSC, Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center; SCEC, Southern California Earthquake 

Center; TFME, Terrestrial, Freshwater and Marine Ecosystems Program; WCMGT, Western Coastal and Marine Geology Team; WERC, Western Ecological Research 

Center; WGIO, Western Geospatial Information Office; WGSC, Western Geographic Science Center. (Every program will put 20 percent of new funds into a fund for shared 

activities described in Appendix A: Required Skills/Staffing)]r

Working groups Participants and cost centers 

(Task leader in bold) Funding FY 2007 program source tasks

Fire and Debris Flows TFME: $340k; GAM: $65k; LHP: $700k; NSIP: $180k; LRS: $50k 

Fuel treatments on stability WERC: Jon Keeley $200k TFME

Vegetation type conversions WERC: Jon Keeley, Robert Fisher $140k TFME

WGSC: Cindy Wallace $20k GAM

Post-fire debris flow susceptibility GHT: Sue Cannon, Joe Gartner, Dave Lidke, 

John Michael

$200k LHP

EROS: Susan Greenlee, Jeff Eidenshink

MCGSC: Jeff Spooner $45k GAM, $50k LRS

Post-fire erosion models GHT: Kevin Schmidt, external contract $200k LHP

Debris flow warning system GHT: Jon Stock, new hire $300k LHP

Debris flow inundation CAWSC: Chuck Parrett 

Gerald Bawden

$180K NSIP

Winter Storm Events CMG: $180k; NSIP: $390k; GAM $82k

Gaging (streams, rain) CAWSC: Jim Bowers $230k NSIP

Flood frequency analysis CAWSC: Chuck Parrett, NWIS,NRP

Donna Knifong

$160k NSIP,

EROS: Jim Verdin $82k GAM

Coastal erosion WCMGT: Patrick Barnard $180k CMG

18  Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards—Strategic Plan for Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, Southern Calif.
Appendix C—Potential Partners and Collaborators

The following is a list of organizations that are potential partners and collaborators drawn from the list of participants at the 

February and March 2006 workshops:

Organization

California Coastal Commission

California Department of Water Resources

California Geological Survey

California Seismic Safety Commission

City of Los Angeles Emergency Preparedness

California State University, Santa Barbara, Water Resources Institute

Forest Service/Pacific Southwest Rescue Station—Forest Fire Laboratory, Riverside

Homeland Security Advisory Council

Leighton and Associates/Seismic Safety Commission

Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce

Los Angeles County – Office of Emergency Management

Los Angeles County Building and Safety

Los Angeles County, Department of Public Works Building and Safety

National Park Service, Santa Monica Mountains

Office of Rep. Jane Harmon

San Bernardino County Office of Emergency Services

Seismic Safety Commission

State of California Office of Emergency Services

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

U.S. Forest Service

U.S. Forest Service Riverside Fire Lab

University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

Warner Brothers Studios

Appendix C—Potential Partners and Collaborators 19

Jones and others—Increasing Resiliency to Natural Hazards: A Strategic Plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California—OFR 07-1255