## Staff Report Proposed 2007 State Implementation Plan for the South Coast Air Basin – PM2.5 Annual Average and 8-Hour Ozone

National Ambient Air Quality Standards

Release Date: September 21, 2007

This document has been prepared by the staff of the California Air Resources Board. Publication does not signify that the contents reflect the views and policies of the Air Resources Board. The Air Resources Board will consider this document as a revision to the California State Implementation Plan at a noticed public meeting tentatively scheduled for September 27, 2007. 

# Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection AgencyElectronic copies of this documen t can be found on ARB’s website at http://www.arb.ca.gov/p lanning/sip/sip.htm . Alternatively, paper copies may be obtained from the Public Information Office , Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Visitors and Environmental Services Center, 1 st Floor, Sacrament o, California 95814, (916) 322-2990.

For individuals with sensory disabilities, this document is available in Braille, large print, audiocassette, or computer disk. Please cont act ARB’s Disability Coordinator at (916) 323-4916 by voice or through the California Relay Services at 711, to place your request for disab ility services. If you are a person with limited English and would like to request interpreter services, please contact ARB’s Bilingual Mana ger at (916) 323-7053.

This document has been prepared by the st aff of the California Air Resources Board. Publication does not signify that the contents reflect the views and policies of the Air Resources Board, nor does a reference to trade names or commercial products constitute endor sement or recommendation for use.

For questions, please contact:

Ms. Sylvia Oey, Manager Southern California Liaison Section California Air Resources Board P.O. Box 2815 Sacramento, California 95812 Phone: (916) 322-8279 Email: soey@arb.ca.gov

### Report Proposed 2007 State Implementation Plan for the South Coast Air Basin – PM2.5 Annual Average and 8-Hour Ozone

National Ambient Air Quality Standards

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SU MMARY ................................................................................ ES-1

I. BACKG ROUND .........................................................................................1 A. Profile of the South Coast Air Basin 1. PM2.5 2. 8-Hour Ozone B. AIR QUALITY PLANNING 1. Federal Air Qualit y Planning Requirements 2. Emission Reduction Responsibilities

II. PLAN EV ALUATION ..................................................................................6 A. Emissions Inventories B. Baseline Emission Trends 1. Summary of Emission Sources C. Air Quality Modeling 1. Overview 2. Grid-based Modeling 3. Supplemental Analyses D. Ozone Attainment Demonstration 1. Request for Reclassification to Extreme Nonattainment for the 8-Hour Ozone Standard 2. Attainment Demonstration 3. Supplemental Analyses E. PM2.5 SIP Attain ment Demonstration 1. Request for Extension of the PM2.5 Attainment Date 2. PM2.5 Modeling 3. Supplemental Analysis F. South Coast District Control Strategy 1. District Measures a. Proposed Backstop Measures for I ndirect Sources of Emissions from Ports and Port-Related Fa cilities [NOx, SOx, PM] b. Structure of District Commitment c. Reductions from Adopted Rules d. Reductions from the Distri ct’s Proposed Stationary Source Control Measures 2. Transportation and Land Use Planning G. Proposed State Strategy1. Proposed Control Measures H. Local Government Measures I. Federal Measures J. Reasonable Further Progress K. Contingency Measures L. Reasonably Available Cont rol Measures (RACM) Analysis

III. COACHELLA VALLEY OZONE A TTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION .......33 A. Profile of Coachella Valley B. Nature of the Problem C. Emissions Inventory D. Attainment Demonstration E. Photochemical Modeling F. Supplemental Analysis

IV. ON-ROAD MOTOR VEHICL E EMISSIONS B UDGETS...........................38 A. Budget Approach

V. REVIEW OF PU BLIC PROC ESS.............................................................40

VI. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ..................................................................................40

GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS APPENDIX A – SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSI S: 8-HOUR OZONE ATTAINMENT APPENDIX B – SUPPLEMENTAL AN ALYSIS: PM2.5 ATTAINMENT APPENDIX C – PM2.5 REASO NABLE FURTHER PROGRESS CALCULATIONSES-1 

## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Air Resources Board (ARB) staff is propos ing Board approval of the South Coast Air Quality Management District (District) 2007 State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the federal 8-hour oz one and PM2.5 standards. The local SIP elements, combined with the ARB’s 2007 Statewide SI P Strategy, demonstrate attainment of the standards by applicable deadlines. The local SIP elements were approved by the District on June 15, 2007, when it adopted its comprehensive 2007 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP). U nder State law t he District adopts an AQMP to address to state and federal air quality requirements. Only the portions of the AQMP intended to address federal standards ar e being submitted to the U.S. Environmental Prot ection Agency as a SIP revision. The ARB is considering approval of the 2007 Statewide Strategy concurrent with the District’s SIP elements.

Some of the nation’s highest concentrati ons of PM2.5 and ozone occur in the South Coast Air Basin despite stringent St ate and local controls and substantial air quality progress. The South C oast Air Basin is one of two PM2.5 nonattainment areas in the State, and the mo st serious in the nation. It is also the nation’s worst area for ozone, with 8- hour ozone levels that are currently 50 percent above the federal standard. The ozone standard is exceeded somewhere in the basin on an av erage of 85 days per year.

This staff report summarizes a consensus agreement reached by staff of the ARB, the District, and SCAG for attain ing the new national PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone standards in the South Coast Air Ba sin. This agreement provides for achievement of the District’s 2014 emi ssion reduction target through additional actions by ARB and the District, the f ederal government, and local cities and counties. The agreement will require new regulations as well as new sources of public and private funding dedicated to ai r pollution control. A process for encouraging the development of the new technologies that will be needed to meet the 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast by 2023 is also included.

ARB staff recommends that the Board approve the 2007 SIP for the South Coast Air Basin as modified by the consensus agreement. The new reductions from the agreement will come from accelerating the r eplacement or retrofit of older diesel trucks, reducing emissions from Metrolink commute tr ains, and targeting existing clean air incentive funds to projects that provide the greatest emission reductions. The agreement also incorpor ates the District’s proposal to reduce emissions from fireplaces and commerc ial charbroiling operations, and sets a federal funding target to mitigate a por tion of the 2014 emissions from sources under federal jurisdiction.ES-2 Much of California’s past air pollution success came from requiring new vehicles and industrial equipment to be as clean as possible. The short timeframe for reaching the PM2.5 standard requires strate gy that relies heavily on the early replacement or retrofit of the existing sources. In m any cases the required level of reductions will be feasible only if the owners of the older equipment and vehicles are provided with financial assist ance or incentives. Some money is available now through bonds and Carl Moyer program; more will be needed. The success of this strategy depends on the ARB, District, SCAG, and local governments working together to secu re needed funding and ensure that all available funding is used in a way t hat maximizes cost-effective emission reductions.

The 2007 AQMP also addresses 8-hour ozone planning requirements for Riverside County’s Coachella Valley, a por tion of the District that lies in the Salton Sea Air Basin. Staff recommends approval of the Coac hella Valley ozone attainment demonstration.

PM2.5 Strategy

California must meet the new annual PM 2.5 standard by 2014. The District has determined that emissions of nitrogen ox ides (NOx) and sulfur oxides (SOx) – pollutants generated largely fr om mobile sources ranging from passenger cars to container ships – must be reduced by 55% and almost 70% respectively from 2006 levels to meet the 2014 deadline for attaining the PM2.5 standard. The District’s plan also calls for a 30% reduc tion in emissions of reactive organic gasses (ROG) and a 15% reduction in direct ly emitted PM2.5. The District used photochemical air quality modeling to ident ify emission levels that that would allow the basin to attain the PM 2.5 annual average standard – the carrying capacity – and the corresponding emission r eduction targets. The District has since modeled the impact of t he proposed strategy to verify that it will result in attainment by 2014.

The following table summarizes the PM2. 5 attainment demonstration for the South Coast Air Basin.ES-3 South Coast Air Basin PM2.5 Carrying Capacity vs. Pr ojected 2014 Emissions Annual Average Emissions, Tons per Day (tpd)

NOx SOx PM2.5* ROG 2014 2014 2014 2014 Baseline Emissions 654 43 102 528 Carrying Capacity 460 20 86 474 Reductions Needed (tons) 194 23 16 54 New AQMD Reductions 28 3 4 10 New ARB Reduction 152 20 12 43 Additional Federal Reductions 10 Additional Local Reductions 4 Total Reductions 194 23 16 53

The District’s AQMP and State Strategy now achieve the reductions necessary to meet the modeled carrying capacity. AR B staff’s assessment of PM2.5 precursor emissions, combined with ambient levels of PM2.5 and precursor emissions measured in the South Coast Air Basin is al so provided in this staff report. This supplemental analysis indicates that a some what lower level of reductions than those shown above could result in attain ment. Because of the uncertainties inherent in photochemical mode ling, U.S. EPA’s Guidance provides for the use of supplemental analyses to demonstrate attainment with a higher level of emissions than the modeled carrying capacit y. Meeting the Dis trict’s emission reduction target provides additional certainty to the attainment demonstr ation.

Ozone

The South Coast Air Basin is currently required to reach the national 8-hour ozone standard by 2020, but the Act allows states to reques t an extension to 2023. The District has determined that NO x emissions in the South Coast must be reduced by 76% to reac h the standard. It has r equested the extension to 2023, which also allows the SIP to rely in part on future technologies, not yet fully identified, in its attain ment demonstration.

The measures currently identified in the proposed State Stra tegy, together with proposed District measures and existing c ontrols, will provide three-quarters of the reductions needed to attain the feder al 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast Air Basin by 2023 – less than one-f ourth of the reductions needed in the plan’s 17-year timeframe rely on the new technology provision. The AQMP includes 22 local control options that the District has identified for further investigation that may also reduce this shortfall.ES-4 South Coast Air Basin 8-hour Ozone SIP Summer Planning Inventory, Tons per Day (tpd)

NOx ROG 2023 2023 Baseline Emissions 506 536 Carrying Capacity 114 420 Reductions Needed from 2023 Baseline 383 116 New AQMD Measures 19 9 New ARB Measures 164 56 Total Short-and Mid-term Reductions 183 65 Long-Term Reductions 200 51

It is clear, however, that it will be a cha llenge to reduce emissions to 25% of current levels in the face of projec ted population and vehicle use increases. Because of this, ARB, the District, and SCAG have agreed to initiate a coordinated government, private, and public e ffort to establish emission goals for critical source categories and identify technology advancement opportunities.

The Nature of the Commitments

The AQMP commitment adopted by the Distr ict specifies an emission reduction schedule and identifies control options t hat the District wil l pursue to reduce emissions by the amounts and in the timefr ames identified in t he AQMP. It does not bind the District to adopt specific measur es identified in the plan or to achieve the reductions the District staff has esti mated for each measure. This approach allows the District to revise its strat egy as it develops and learns more about specific regulations, while ensuring that the District meets its overall emission reduction schedule and commitment. AR B staff is proposing a comparable approach for the State Strategy.

ARB staff is proposing t hat the Board include in its Board Resolution a commitment to deliver all the 2014 emi ssions reduction commitments from State or District proposed measures for mobile sources, with the following exceptions:

o SIP Credit for Reductions from Local City and County DMV Registration Fees Revenues : Aside from providing needed emissi on reductions, this measure is intended in part to encourage cities and counties within the South Coast Air Basin to use a substantial portion of their DMV surcharge revenues to maximize emission reductions. A St ate commitment to achieve these reductions should local governments fail to do so would undermine that goal.

o Federal Funding to Mitigate Locomotive Emissions : The State’s ability to reduce emissions from locomotives is impacted by jurisdictional issues, the cost of controls, and the availability of clean engines to meet the lowest emission standards. U.S. EPA, by virt ue of its ability to establish engineES-5 emission standards, holds the key to t he introduction of the cleanest engines needed to meet federal air quality standar ds in California. ARB and the District cannot make up the reductions where California is preempted by federal law. Existing agreements with the rail industry are reducing emissions in the South Coast Air Basin beyond f ederal requirements. However, the severity of the region’s PM2.5 proble m and the attainment deadline make it necessary to further mitigate locomotive emissions in 2014.

Coachella Valley Ozone SIP

The Coachella Valley is an area under Distr ict jurisdiction that lies outside the South Coast Air Basin. It is the por tion of Riverside County that lies in the Salton Sea Air Basin, east of the South Co ast Air Basin. Most of the Coachella Valley’s residents live in communities al ong Highway 111 from Palm Springs to the town of Coachella.

The Coachella Valley has been classifi ed as a “serious” ozone nonattainment area with an attainment date of June 15, 2013. In 2006, the Va lley exceeded the standard on 26 days with an ozone design val ue of 0.102 parts per million (ppm), which is approximately 21 percent ov er the 0.085 ppm standard. Existing and proposed control programs in the South Coast Air Basin are expected to reduce the transport of ozone and ozone precurso rs ROG and NOx by about 29 and 46percent, respectively, by the 2013 deadline. The District has adopted a twopronged air quality improvement program for the Coachella Valley that consists of an aggressive control program in t he upwind South Coast Air Basin, and additional control of locally generated m obile source emissions via the State Strategy. The District’s analysis indica tes that the anticipated reductions from these programs will not be sufficient to a ttain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in 2013.

The AQMP requests a reclassification to “Severe-17”, which would extend the attainment date to 2021. Subsequent m odeling that reflects the consensus agreement for PM2.5 indicates that the new reductions in the South Coast Air Basin will also accelerate air quality im provement in the C oachella Valley, and may result in attainment as early as 2018.

Staff Recommendation :

Staff recommends that the Board appr ove the South Co ast 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 SIPs as modified by the cons ensus agreement reached by the ARB, District, and SCAG staff and reflected in the ARB’s 2007 Statew ide SIP Strategy being considered concurrently on Septem ber 27, 2007. Staff also recommends approval of the Coachella Valley ozone SIP.ES-61 I. Background

A. Profile of the South Coast Air Basin

The South Coast Air Basin is the nation’s second largest urban area and California’s largest metropolitan region. It includes the southern two-thirds of Los Angeles County, all of Orange County, and the wester n, urbanized portions of Riverside and San Bernardino counties. The South Coast Air Basin is home to 16 million people, about 40 perc ent of the State’ s population. The basin is also home to over 10 million vehicles. Fifty thousand heavy duty diesel trucks travel nearly 10 million miles through the regi on annually, and well over 50,000 diesel engines are used to move goods and power construction and mining equipment.

The Air Basin’s complex terrain combines with its temperate climate to provide the perfect conditions for cr eating “smog”. Ozone levels in much of the coastal area now meet federal standards, thanks to t he combined impacts of local, State, and federal emission controls. However, inland portions of the air basin continue to face a challenging ozone problem. R egional PM2.5 levels are also well above the federal annual standard.

Residual pollution from the South Coas t Air Basin is transported to several downwind air basins – the Mo jave Desert, the Salton Sea, the South Central Coast, and San Diego. The transport im pact on the downwind areas will decline as emissions in the South Coast Air Ba sin decrease with the implementation of the AQMP.

Some of the nation’s highest concentrati ons of inhalable particles under 2.5 microns (PM2.5) and ozone occur in the S outh Coast Air Basin despite decades of increasingly stringent air pollution cont rols. The South Coast Air Basin is one of two PM2.5 nonattainment areas in t he State, and the most serious in the nation. Its ozone levels are currently 50 percent above the federal standard, making it the nation’s worst ozone area.

1. PM2.5

Unlike most air pollutants, PM2.5 is identified its size rather than its chemical composition. PM2.5 can be formed in t he air through the reaction of precursor gasses, primarily NOx, SOx, ROG, and am monia. The resulting particles are referred to as secondary PM2.5. The two main components of secondary PM2.5 in the South Coast are ammonium nitr ate and ammonium sulfate, which are formed when NOx and SOx interact with am monia. The smallest particles of smoke, dust, and soot can also be in t he PM2.5 size range. These directly emitted particles, made up of organic and elemental carbon, come from sources like residential fireplaces, gasoline and diesel engines, and airborne soil (dust).

PM2.5 concentrations are much lower t oday than they were when we started measuring this pollutant in 1990. Between 1990 and 19 98, PM2.5 annual2 average concentrations dropped by 30 to 40 percent throughout the basin. In addition, the South Coast now attains t he federal 24-hour st andard of 65 ug/m3. Although PM2.5 concentrations remain the highest in the eastern portion of the air basin, the rate of decrease in PM2.5 and the response to ongoing control programs has also been the greatest in this region.

Analysis of the trends in different com ponents of PM2.5 has s hown that over the last six years, decreases in ammoni um nitrate have had the greatest impact on declining PM2.5 levels, with ammonium nitrate concentrations at RiversideRubidoux dropping by 39 percent. During th is same period, NOx emissions and NOx levels measured in the air also decr eased. Similarly, measured ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate levels dec lined significantly, concurrent with decreases in the amounts of NOx and SOx emitt ed. These significant trends – reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrati ons corresponding to reductions in NOx and SOx emissions – suggest even greater air quality improvement resulting from this plan, which will reduce both NOx and SOx emissions at a much faster rate than we have seen in the past.

The 2006 monitoring data show the positiv e PM2.5 trends co ntinuing. Average PM2.5 concentrations in 2006 decreased at most sites compared to 2005, and are all lower than 2004 and earlier years at a ll sites. The figure below illustrates that PM2.5 concentrations are dec lining throughout the air basin.



### PM2.5 Average Concentrations

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Concentrations (ug/m3)

LA-North Main

Rubidoux

Fontana

Ontario
San Bernardino

2. 8-Hour Ozone

Thirty years ago, high ozone days were t he norm throughout the South Coast Air Basin and throughout the year. During t he mid- to late-1970s, maximum 8-hour ozone concentrations were nearly four ti mes the level of the current national3 standard. Had the current 8-hour standard existed at t hat time, it would have been exceeded on more than 200 days each year. Since then, an emissions control strategy based on reducing both NOx and ROG has reduced both maximum concentrations and the number of exceedance days by almost 60 percent.

The South Coast Air Basin still face s one of the biggest ozone air quality challenges in the nation. While air qua lity has improved over the years, the 8-hour ozone standard was exceeded somew here in the Basin on 85 days in 2006, with 53 exceedance days occurring at Crestline. The highest recorded value, 0.142 ppm, is almost 50 percent over the standard.

Despite the magnitude of the problem, basinwide measures of maximum concentration, exceedance days, and des ign value are all down by about 30 percent over the last decade, and more than half of the basin’s residents live in areas that are now clean. The follo wing maps show the substantial progress made in the past ten years.

Crestline in San Bernardino County and Santa Clarita in northern Los Angeles County continue to stand out as the m onitoring sites that record the highest 8-hour ozone concentrations. Residents of Crestline and Santa Clarita experienced an average of 64 and 46 da ys per year over the standard, respectively, from 2004 through 2006.4 

### South Coast Air Basin Federal 8-Hour Ozone Exceedance Days 1995 to 20055 B. Air Quality Planning

1. Federal Air Quality Planning Requirements

The federal Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAA or Act) establish the planning requirements for those areas t hat routinely exc eed the health-based National Ambient Air Quality St andards (NAAQS), and hold each state responsible for implementing the provisions of the Act. California law identifies air quality planning responsibil ities within the St ate. In the South Coast, those responsibilities are shared among the S outh Coast District, SCAG, and ARB.

In April 2004, U.S. EPA finalized Phase 1 of its implementation rule for 8-hour ozone SIPs. This rule established the classification scheme for nonattainment areas and continuing obligat ions with respect to the existing 1-hour ozone requirements. The South Coast Air Ba sin is classified as Severe-17 with an attainment date of June 2021. On No vember 9, 2005, U.S. EPA supplemented its Phase 1 implementation rule with a Phase 2 rule for SI P development. On March 29, 2007, U.S. EPA released an im plementation rule for PM2.5.

These federal rules outline the emission co ntrols and planning elements that the PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone SIPs must address. These include:

• base year and future year emission in ventories for manmade sources of air pollution in the nonattainment ar ea between 2006 and the respective attainment years.

• air quality modeling that demonstrates attainment of the federal standard.

• adopted control strategies capable of meeting attainment, and contingency measures in the event the controls fa ll short of achieving needed reductions.

• reasonable further progress plans.

• a demonstration that all reasonably av ailable control technology (RACT) and reasonably available control measures (RACMs) have been applied to existing sources.

• transportation conformity emission budgets to ensure transportation plans and projects are consistent with the SIP, and will not hinder attainment.

• supplemental analysis of air quality and emission data and trends supporting the modeled attainment demonstration.

As part of its AQMP, the South Coas t District has developed a comprehensive SIP that provides the tec hnical foundation and control strategy for both federal standards. The draft AQMP requests an attainment extension for both PM2.5 and ozone; it is designed to demonstrate attainment of the federal PM2.5 ambient air quality standard by 2014 and t he federal 8-hour ozone standard by 2023.6 2. Emission Reduction Responsibilities

ARB has primary regulator y authority over most m obile sources operated in California, and consumer products. T he U.S. EPA has primary regulatory authority over large new farm and cons truction equipment, locomotives, oceangoing vessels, and aircraft. Air Districts such as the South Coast District primary authority over stationary em ission sources, including industrial and commercial equipment. The regional association of governments or planning organization, in this case SCAG, is responsible for dev eloping the regional transportation plans that are used to estimate mobile sour ce emissions. These transportation plans can also impact land use patterns, and the availability and attractiveness of transit alternatives.

Unlike most other districts, the Sout h Coast District also has a significant research and testing program for innovativ e motor vehicle control technologies. The District has also used Moyer funds and emission fees to provide funding assistance for replacement and retrofits fo r a wide variety of mobile sources.

II. Plan Evaluation

A. Emissions Inventories

Emission inventories estimate the air pollu tant emissions that are released into the environment, both as a result of human activities (“anthropogenic” sources) and by natural sources such as v egetation in open areas, and wildfires (“non-anthropogenic” sources). Air quality plans focus on anthropogenic sources, although emissions from non-ant hropogenic sources are also estimated and these estimates are used in air quality modeling. The inv entories used in the 2007 AQMP were developed using the mo st recent planning assumptions and the best available technical information.

The baseline inventories used in the South Coast AQMP and the proposed State Strategy reflect the emissions impact of District regulations adopted through June 30, 2006, and ARB regulations adopted th rough December 2006. The baseline emissions also reflect the approximatel y 20 increase in population growth and 11 percent increase in the m iles traveled by cars and trucks, from 2006 to 2023. The inventories take into account seasonal changes in activity, temperature, and humidity. The inventories used in the air quality models reflect day-specific activity levels and climatic factors such as temperature and humidity.

The following tables summarize the largest sources of precurso r emissions in the South Coast Air Basin. The future year estimates reflect the emission reduction benefits of existing rules and the impacts of projected po pulation growth and economic activity in the region. Thes e tables do not include potential reductions from the new District meas ures identified in the S outh Coast AQMP or ARB7 staff’s proposed State Strat egy. Chapter 3 of the S outh Coast AQMP provides detailed emission inventories for ROG, NOx, SOx, and PM2.5. ARB’s website also provides more information about these inventories, at http://www.arb.ca.gov/ei/ei.htm

.

1. Baseline Emission Trends

The following tables show trends in PM 2.5 and ozone precursor emissions from all source categories in the South C oast Air basin, from 2006 to the 2014 and 2023 attainment years. These inventories also reflect emissions from ships and harbor craft to 100 miles from the shoreli ne, as these emissions impact on-shore air quality. Note that in ARB’s California Em ission Forecasting System (CEFS) data base, the District inv entory includes emissions to 100 miles offshore but includes the Coachella Valley which is in the Salton Sea Air Basin, while the Air Basin inventory reflects emissions to onl y three miles offshor e. The inventory used in this plan was created by supplem enting the CEFS South Coast Air Basin inventory with the differenc e between the CEFS Air Basi n and District inventories for the category of Ships and Commercial Boats.

2007 AQMP for PM2.5 Baseline Precursor Emissions 2006-2014* (Summer Season Inventory in tons per day)**

2007 AQMP for PM2.5 Baseline Precursor Emissions 2006-2014* (Summer Season Inventory in tons per day)**

ROG NOx Source Category 2006 2014 Change 2006 2014 Change Stationary/Areawide 259 260 0% 87 71 -19%
On-Road 264 149 -44% 526 287 -46%
Off-Road 208 157 -24% 360 293 -19%
TOTAL 731 566 -23% 972 650 -33%
SOx PM Source Category 2006 2014 Change 2006 2014 Change Stationary/Areawide 22 17 -21% 58 63 8%
On-Road 4 2 -47% 20 17 -16%
Off-Road 37 25 -32% 22 18 -19%
TOTAL 63 45 -29% 101 98 -3%8 2007 AQMP for Ozone ROG and NOx Baseline Emission Trends 2006-2023* (Summer Season Inventory in tons per day)**

ROG NOx Source Category 2006 2023 Change 2006 2023 Change
Stationary/Areawide 259 281 +8% 87 68 -22%

On-Road 264 105 -60% 526 161 -69%
Off-Road 208 149 -28% 360 276 -25%

Inventory Adjustment*** (.2) (9)

TOTAL 731 536 -27% 972 497 -49%

* Reference: ARB **Numbers may not add due to rounding.

*** Inventory decreases to reflect the aggregate of emission benefits and shortfalls from rules adopted after the 2006 inventory was “frozen”.
2. Summary of Emission Sources

Mobile sources (including commercial tr ucks, passenger vehicles, construction equipment, ships, and locomotives) currently account for nearly 85 percent of the NOx emissions in the South Coast Air Basin, decreasing to 72 percent by 2023 as a result of existing controls. On-r oad sources show the greatest projected decrease in NOx emissions – approximately 70 percent between 2006 and 2023. Emissions from ships and commercial boats are projected to increase by over 50 percent during this time period.9 NOx Emissions
South Coast Air Basin 2007 SIP Summer Season Emissions Inventory 1

(Prioritized by 2006 emissions)

Source Category 2006 2014 2023
HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS 259 140 73
PASSENGER VEHICLES 205 101 53

Passenger Cars 83 36 18 Light Trucks, Minivans and SUVs 83 43 24
Medium Duty Trucks 38 21 12 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (CONST RUCTION AND MINING) 120 81 41 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (OTHER) 87 53 35

Industrial Equipment 39 19 11

Commercial 16 12 7 Cargo Handling Equipment 12 5 3 Transport Refrigeration Units 8 9 10
Airport Ground Support Equipment 5 4 2 Oil Drilling and Workover 5 3 2

Other 1 1 0 SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS (t o 100 miles offshore) 74 87 116

Ocean Going Vessels 48 71 102

Commercial Harbor Craft 25 16 14 GASOLINE FUELED COMMERCIAL TRUCKS 36 24 17
LOCOMOTIVES 31 23 28
RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION 18 16 14

Water Heating 7 5 3 Space Heating 5 5 5 Cooking 3 4 4 Other (Clothes Dryers, BBQs, Pool Heaters and Fireplaces) 2 2 2 MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL (BOILERS- IC ENGINES) 17 15 15 SERVICE AND COMMERCIAL (BOILERS- IC ENGINES) 16 12 11 TOTAL OF TOP 10 863 552 403

TOTAL OF SCAB 972 650 505 TOP 10 PERCENT OF TOTAL EMISSIONS 89% 85% 80%

Sources that tend to increase with populat ion growth dominate the South Coast Air Basin’s ROG emissions in ventory. Population-driven sources such as cars, recreational boats, consumer products, lawn and garden equipment, architectural coatings, and gas cans make up approxim ately 65 percent of the current 2023 ROG inventory.

1 Derived from ARB’s CEFS ROG inventory fo r the SCAB, v1.06 RF#980 (November 2006).10 ROG Emissions
South Coast Air Basin 2007 SIP Summer Season Emissions Inventory 2

(Prioritized by 2006 emissions)

Source Category 2006 2014 2023

PASSENGER VEHICLES 207 112 76

Passenger Cars 114 52 31
Light Trucks, Minivans and SUVs 68 42 32
Medium Duty Trucks 24 17 13 CONSUMER PRODUCTS 101 103 110
RECREATIONAL BOATS 64 53 51

Pleasure Boats 50 42 38

Personal Water Craft 14 11 12 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (L AWN AND GARDEN) 52 40 38

Lawn & Garden Residential 29 20 16

Lawn & Garden Commercial 23 20 22 ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS (PAINTS AND THINNERS) 31 29 31 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (OTHER) 28 15 12

Commercial 14 8 6
Industrial Equipment 7 4 3
Transport Refrigeration Units 4 1 2
Airport Ground Support Equipment 1 1 1
Cargo Handling Equipment 1 1 1
Oil Drilling and Workover 1 0 0

Other <1 0 0 PETROLEUM MARKETING (GASOLINE EVAPORATIVE LOSSES) 27 28 31 COATINGS (PAINTS AND THINNERS - NON ARCHITECTURAL) 27 25 28
GASOLINE FUELED COMMERCIAL TRUCKS 24 13 8
GAS CANS 21 10 7 TOTAL OF TOP 10 581 428 392

TOTAL OF SCAB 731 566 534 TOP 10 PERCENT OF TOTAL EMISSIONS 79% 76% 73%

B. Air Quality Modeling

1. Overview

Air quality modeling is used to establish a "carrying capacity" – a combination of precursor emissions that the air basi n can accommodate without exceeding the health-based standard 3 – and to assess whether t he proposed control strategy

2 Derived from ARB’s CEFS ROG inventory fo r the SCAB, v1.06 RF#980 (November 2006). 3 An emissions carrying capacity is defined as the maxi mum level of emissions that enable the attainment and maintenance of an ambient air quality standard for a pollut ant. Under State law, the South Coast District, with participation from SCAG, must establis h an emissions carrying capacity with ea ch formal plan review; it must also update the carrying capacity to reflect new data and modeling results.11 will result in attainment of feder al standards. The CAA requires that nonattainment areas designated as seri ous and above use a photochemical grid model to demonstrate attainment.

2. Grid-based Modeling

The 2007 AQMP attainment demonstrati ons for both PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone were conducted using photochemical di spersion and meteorological modeling tools developed in response to U.S EPA modeling guidelines, and recommendations from air quality modeli ng experts. The air quality modeling performed for the AQMP has undergone sci entific peer review and was made available for public review. ARB and Sout h Coast District staffs worked together on the modeling for this plan, incl uding development of a gridded modeling inventory and meteorological and geologic al data inputs, model performance analysis, and validation of the a ttainment demonstrations.

The modeling platforms, chemical me chanisms, and inventories used in the photochemical modeling are summarized bel ow and described in more detail in the AQMP’s Appendix V: Modeli ng and Attainment Demonstrations

. Draft 2007 AQMP Dispersion Modeling Methodology (PM2.5 and 8-Hour Ozone)

Mechanism Model Dispersion Platform CAMx Chemistry SAPRC99 (PMCAMx for PM2.5) Meteorology MM5/FDDA
Mobile Emissions EMFAC2007 Boundary WRAP-CAMx-GEOCHEM

The District’s attainment analysis uses a combination of observed pollutant concentrations and modeled relative res ponse factors (RRF) to reconcile the model outputs with the observed concentrati ons at air quality monitors through the air basin; a procedure recommended in U.S. EPA modeling guidance. Each of the episodes used in the RRF calcul ation satisfies the U.S. EPA’s model performance and threshold criteria. For the annual PM2.5 attainment demonstration, the model was run for the base and future years in their entirety. The model runs utilized speciated data co llected during the District’s Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study (MATESI) monito ring program to reflect the numerous chemical species that constitute PM2. 5. The modeling procedures and analyses used by the District are also described in AQMP Appendix V.12 3. Supplemental Analyses

Air quality modeling has inherent uncerta inties since we cannot precisely measure, and models cannot precisely replic ate, all of the spatial and temporal nuances in emissions, atmospheric condi tions, and chemical reactions that influence air quality. U.S. EPA model ing guidance recommends the use of supplemental data analyses to help miti gate the uncertainty in air quality modeling. Such analyses include additi onal modeling, analyses of trends in ambient air quality and emissions, and observational models and diagnostic analyses. When a modeled design value is within 2-3 parts per billion (ppb) of the 8-hour ozone standard, or within 5 micrograms per cubic meter (ug/m3) of the PM2.5 annual aver age standard, U.S. EPA guidance has provisions for using supplemental analyses.

C. Ozone Attainment Demonstration

1. Request for Reclassificat ion to Extreme Nonattainment for the 8-Hour Ozone Standard

The South Coast Air Basin is currently cl assified as a severe nonattainment area with a 2021 attainment deadline. The Act allows states to request a voluntary reclassification to a higher classification. 4 The District requests and ARB staff recommends Board approval of a “bump up” to the extreme cla ssification. If a state requests a reclassification to extrem e, U.S. EPA must grant it. The extreme classification requires attainment no la ter than 2023, and allows the attainment demonstration to include reductions based on the anticipated development of new control technologies or improvement of existing technologies for attainment. 5 ARB staff agrees with the District’s assessment that we cannot demonstrate attainment without relying in part on tec hnologies that do not exist and cannot be identified today.

With out a reclassification to extreme, the Plan would not be able to demonstrate attainment by the applicable ozone deadl ine and the air basin would be subject to federal sanctions on permitted industr ial sources, a prohibition on federally funded road projects, and feder ally imposed controls on mobile and stationary sources in the region.

Staff of ARB, the District, and SCAG, have agreed to the development of a discussion paper, to be prepared within four months of the adopt ion of the SIP, on potential strategies for achieving t he additional emission reductions needed to meet the 8-hour ozone standar d. The paper will explore new or transformative strategies, such as state-of-tec hnology zero and near-zero transportation systems, mechanisms such as fee-based inc entives, and the availability of public funding assistance programs.

4 Section 181(b)(3)
5 Section 182(e)(5)13 Because the Basin was classified as extreme under the prior one-hour ozone standard, it has already adopted the permit and project review rules required for extreme areas and reclassification would not impose additional stationary source requirements.

2. Attainment Demonstration

The District’s ozone photochemical modelin g used five episodes from the years 2004 and 2005 that were chosen to refl ect recent ozone design values, along with a 1997 episode that was used to main tain continuity with the District’s 2003 AQMP. The modeling results indicate that all sites in the South Coast will reach attainment by the 2024 deadline with a 76 percent reduction in NOx emissions and a 22 percent reduction in ROG emissions . The modeling projects that this level of reductions will give Crestline, the current high site for ozone, a design value of 0.083 ppm.

For ozone, the South Coast district select ed a carrying capacity of 420 tons per day ROG and 114 tons per day NOx emi ssions in their draft plan. ARB’s proposed strategies, along with the existing control program and proposed stationary source emission controls , will provide about 80 percent of the combined ROG and NOx emission reducti ons needed to demonstrate attainment of the ozone air quality standard.

South Coast Air Basin Ozone Attainment Demonstration Summary (summer season, tons per day)

NOx ROG

2006 Emissions Inventory 972 732

Carrying Capacity 114 420

Emission Reduction Target 858 312

- Emission Reductions from Adopted SIP Measures 467 199

- Emission Reductions from New Local Measures 9 19

- Emission Reductions from New State Measures 141 54

- Long-Term Measures 241 40

Total Reductions 858 312

Emission Reductions from Adopted SIP Measures = Emissions reduced from measures adopted through 2006. Emission Reductions from New Measures = Emissions reduced from measures in the State Strategy or new local measures adopted after 2006. Long-Term Measures = Emissions to be reduced from new or evolving technology, as allowed in section 182(e)(5) of the Clean Air Act.14 3. Supplemental Analyses

ARB staff independently conducted supplem ental analyses, and reviewed the District’s modeling and supplemental analyses, using U.S. EPA modeling guidelines. ARB staff conc urs with the 2023 attainment projection based on the following factors:

• Basinwide, the maximum ozone concent ration, design value, and number of exceedance days declined by about 30 percent in the last ten years. The basinwide numbers reflect the “worst case” sites; the year-to-year improvement in sub-regions is even gr eater. More than half of the Basin population now lives in areas with design va lues that meet the federal 8-hour ozone standard.

• Comparisons of emissions trends and chang es in ambient precursor levels to ozone trends support the premise that both ROG and NOx reductions are important for ozone improvement.

• Analyses suggest that improvements in regional ozone concentrations are primarily attributable to substantial em ission reductions. The decline in the number of exceedance days between 19 90 and 2000 was not a result of favorable weather, because the number of days with adverse weather conditions actually increased or remained level during this time period while the number of exceedance days decr eased. Furthermore, even though ozone levels have been relatively flat during the last five to six years, analyses suggest that more adverse weat her conditions are now required to produce an exceedance of the federal standard.

• Photochemical modeling shows a design value of 0.083 ppm at Crestline by the end of 2023. The design values at other sites in the Basin are predicted at or below 0.081 ppm. These values ar e below the level of a federal 8-hour ozone standard of 0.085 ppm.

Considered in tandem with the modeling resu lts, these analyses indicate that the ozone carrying capacity identified in the AQMP will allow all sites in the South Coast to attain the federal 8-hour ozone standard in 2023 as is required to meet U.S. EPA’s June 15, 2024, attainment date for extreme ozone nonattainment areas. ARB staff’s supplemental ozone analysis is provided in Appendix A.

Because emissions from the South C oast can be transported to areas outside the Basin, emissions reductions in the South Coast area should result in ozone downwind areas such as Ventura Count y, Coachella Valley, and the Mojave Desert Air Basin.

ARB Staff Recommendation

Staff finds the air quality modeling analysi s and ozone attainment demonstration satisfy U.S. EPA requirements and recomme nds approval for submittal as a SIP15 revision. ARB staff has also conduc ted supplemental analyses for the ozone attainment demonstrations in the AQMP . The ozone evaluation, provided in Appendix A of this staf f report, supports the District’s ozone attainment demonstration.

D. PM2.5 SIP Attain ment Demonstration

1. Request for Extension of the PM2.5 Attainment Date

Under the Clean Air Act 6 PM2.5 areas can apply for up to a five-year extension of the serious area attainment deadline of Ap ril 15, 2010. In order to obtain the extension, there must be a showing that: (1) the plan for the area includes the most stringent measures that are included in the SIP of any state or are achieved in practice in any state, and can feas ibly be implemented in the area, (2) the state complied with all requirements and co mmitments pertaini ng to the area in the implementation plan fo r the area, and (3) attainment by 2010 would be impracticable.

The District is formally requesting U.S. EPA to grant the five-year extension based upon the severity of the problem the significant reductions in NOx and SOx emission levels requi red for attainment.

ARB staff believes that a five-year extensio n is justified given the severity of the PM2.5 problem in the South Coast Air Basin. The AQMD modeling indicates required levels of reductions from 2006 emissions of NOx (55 percent beyond current controls), SOx (68 percent), PM2.5 (15 percent), and ROG (30 percent) that cannot be achieved by 2010.

2

. PM2.5 Modeling

The District’s PM2.5 model uses the sa me platforms as the model used for ozone planning. The District used the model to simulate PM2.5 concentrations throughout a year, and then averaged the re sults to develop a projected PM2.5 annual average design value. The Distric t supplemented monitored data used from the 1997 California Ozone Study with speciated PM2.5 data collected during its Multiple Air Toxics Exposure St udy (MATES) field studies. The PM2.5 modeling uses a 2005 base year.

The model was initially used to establish emission reduction targets to be used in developing the control strategy. Once the strategy was agreed to, the District used the photochemical model to verify t hat the projected emission reductions would result in attainment of the PM 2.5 NAAQS throughout the basin by 2014.

6 Section 188(e)16 The precursor reductions modeled by the District, which the District’s modeling indicated would result in attainment throughout the South Coast Air Basin in 2024, are summarized in the following table.

South Coast AQMP PM2.5 Attainment Demonstration Summary (annual average emissions, tpd)

NOx ROG SOx Direct PM2.5

2014 Baseline Emissions 654 528 43 102

Carrying Capacity 452 469 20 87

Emission Reduction Target 202 59 23 15

Reductions from New Measures 129 59 23 15

3. Supplemental Analyses

ARB staff evaluated emissions and air quality trends, and conducted enhanced rollback modeling analysis to estimate the impacts of future emission reductions on resulting air quality. Data from thr ee Basin monitoring sites that are part of the Speciation and Trends Network (SPN ) provide speciation measurements used in this analysis: Riverside C ounty-Rubidoux, and Los Angeles CountyNorth Main. The rollback technique esti mated that the subs tantial additional emission reductions identified in the Pr oposed State Strategy as released on April 26, 2007, together with the District’s approv ed AQMP, are likely to be sufficient to provide for attainment at Riverside-Rubidoux as well Los AngelesNorth Main. By contrast, the District’s grid-based modeling indicates that this combination of controls would result in a 2014 value of 15.7 ug/m3. The future year concentrations predicted with the rollback modeling are consistent with observed air quality trends and the response to past emission reductions, though more optimistic than the grid- based modeling results.

Both approaches indicate that substantia l reductions of all PM2.5 precursors, particularly NOx and SOx, will be needed for attainment. ARB staff’s PM2.5 supplemental analysis is prov ided in Appendix B.

Staff’s detailed review of South Coast air quality and emissions trends concludes that the carrying capacity est ablished by the District will resu lt in attainment of the PM 2.5 standard by 2014. St aff recommends that the Boar d direct sta ff to submit both the South Coast District’s modeled PM2.5 carrying capacity, and the ARB staff supplemental analyses to U.S. EPA as part of the PM2.5 attainment demonstration for the South Coast Air Basin.17 E. South Coast District Control Strategy

The South Coast District is primarily responsible for controlling emissions from stationary and area-wide source s (with the exception of consumer products). The District’s 2007 AQMP control meas ures are based on the application of available technologies and management practices as well as development and implementation of advanced technolog ies and control methods. Some measures, such as MCS-07 (All Feasible Measures for All Pollutants) and BCM 01 (PM Control Devices for stationary sour ces) are designed to bring older, more polluting equipment up-to-date. The Distr ict’s control strategy is discussed in detail in Appendix IV of the 2007 AQMP. Since the adoption of the AQMP, District staff has also proposed new local actions to provide additional emission reductions by 2014 as shown below.

Additional Actions to Meet the District’s PM2.5 Emission Reduction Target (NOx Emission Reductions – 2014 tpd)

Action / Measure Responsible Agency NOx

Enhanced Heavy-Duty Truck Measure ARB 27

Co-Benefits from Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures ARB 3

SOON Program Opt-in for Construction Equipment District 12

Residential Wood Burning and Commercial Cooking Rule District 11

Additional Incentive Funds for Port-Related and Other Sources District/ARB* 3

Funding for Selective Catalytic Reduction on Metrolink Trains District/ARB* 3

DMV Registration Fees Used for SIP-Creditable Projects Local Gov 4

Federal Funding to Mitigate Locomotive Emissions in 2014 Pending Implementation of Proposed New Locomotive Standards Federal Gov 10

SIP Credit for Moyer Program Projects Already Funded District 3

Additional Reductions 76

* Joint funding commitment with ARB backst op of emission reduction commitment.

1. District Measures

The following table shows the new measur es included in the District AQMP as approved on June 15, 2007 – additional m easures agreed to after District adoption of the AQMP were discussed above. The District commitment is to18 South Coast Air Quality Management District Short- and Mid-Term Stationary Control Measures

with Quantified Emission Reduction Estimates 7

Reduction Target 8 (tons/day) Control Measure # Title

2014 2023
Remaining 2003 AQMP Revision Control Measures FUG-02 Emission Reductions from Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing Facilities [VOC] 3.7 4.0 BCM-03 Emission Reductions from Wood-Burning Fireplaces and Wood Stoves [PM2.5] 1.0 1.6 BCM-05 Emission Reductions from Under-Fired Charbroilers [PM2.5] 1.1 1.2
New Control Measures CTS-01 Emission Reductions from Lubricants [VOC] 1.9 2.0

CTS-03 Consumer Products Certification and Emission Reductions from Use of Consumer Products at Institutional and Commercial Facilities [VOC] 2.1 2.2 9

CTS-04 Emission Reductions from the Reduction of VOC Content of Consumer Products Not Regulated by the State Board [VOC] 5.8 6.0 10

CMB-01 NOx Reduction from Non-RECLAIM Ovens, Dryers and Furnaces [NOx] 3.5 4.1 CMB-02 Further SOx Reductions for RECLAIM [SOx] 3.0 3.0 CMB-03 Further NOx Reductions from Space Heaters [NOx] 0.8 1.1
2.0 9.2 1.6 2.2 MCS-01 Facility Modernization [VOC] [NOx] [PM2.5] 0.4 1.7 MCS-05 Emission Reductions from Livestock Waste [VOC] 0.8 0.6
0.7 1.6 FLX-02 Petroleum Refinery Pilot Program [VOC] [PM2.5] 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.6 EGM-01 Emission Reductions from New and Redevelopment Projects [NOx] [VOC] [PM2.5] 0.0 0.5 7.5 12.9 MOB-04 Emission Reductions from Carl Moyer Program 3 [NOx] [PM2.5] 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 MOB-05 AB923 Light-Duty Vehicle High-Emitter Identification Program [NOx] [VOC] 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 MOB-06 AB923 Medium-Duty Vehicle High-Emitter Identification Program [NOx] [VOC] 0.5 0.6 TOTAL VOC 10.4 19.3 NOx 6.8 9.2 SOx 3.0 3.0
PM2.5 2.9 5.4

7 The District also identifies carbon monoxide (CO) emission reductions that will be achieved through implementation of the State ’s motor vehicle

control program because CO emissions are to a limited extend an ozone precursor. For purposes of this staff report, ARB consid ers these benefits to be part of the baseline and are not included in this discussion. 8 The emission reduction estimates are based on the 2014 annual average inventory and 2023 planning inventory in the proposed modifications to

the Draft 2007 AQMP. The actual reductions are subject to change during rulemaking based on the latest available emission inve ntory data. 9 Emission reductions resulting from the implementation of this control measure will be credited towards AQMD’s SIP obligation pr ovided ARB does

not develop a similar regulation. Any remaining excess reductions will then contribute to fulfilling ARB’s SIP commitment. Re ductions for this
measure are not included in total reductions in this table. 10 Emission reductions from the past and future projects under the Carl Moyer Program presented under this measure are not include d in total

reductions in this table.19 achieve the total tonnages shown; specific control measures may provide more or less reductions than the AQMP estima tes. ARB staff will review and comment on proposed District rules to help ensure that each rule provides the greatest feasible reductions. The District and SCAG have also committed to use incentive funding mechanisms to enhance ARB’s mobile source controls prior to the 2014 PM2.5 attainment date.

The South Coast AQMP also identifies 22 measures for further review. The District has not estimated potential emi ssion reductions for these measures, which are shown below.

Staff recommends that the local measures identified in the SIP be submitted as part of the attainment dem onstration, with the exc eption of the District’s Proposed Rule Control Strategy MOB- 03, Backstop Measures for Indirect Sources of Emissions from Ports and Port -Related Facilities, which is discussed later. South Coast 2007 AQMP Non-Quantified Control Approaches and Measures*

Number Title Energy Efficiency/Conservation MCS-02 Urban Heat Island [All Pollutants] MCS-03 Energy Efficiency and Conservation [All Pollutants] Good Management Practices FUG-01 Improved Leak Detection and Repair [VOC] FUG-04 Emission Reductions from Pipeline and Storage Tank Degassing [VOC] BCM-01 PM Control Devices (Baghouses, We t Scrubbers, and Other Devices) [PM2.5] MCS-04 Emissions Reduction from Green Waste Composting [VOC, PM2.5] MCS-06 Improved Start-up, Shut-down & Turnaround Procedures [All Pollutants] Market Incentives/Compliance Flexibility CTS-02 Clean Coatings Certification Program [VOC]

FLX-01 Economic Incentive Programs [All Pollutants] Area Source Programs

FUG-03 Emission Reductions fr om Cutback Asphalt [VOC] CMB-04 Natural Gas Fuel Specifications [All Pollutants] BCM-02 PM Emission Hot Spots – Localized Control Program [PM2.5]

BCM-03 Emission Reductions from Wood Burn ing Fireplaces and Wood Stoves [PM2.5] BCM-04 Additional PM Emission Reductions from Rule 444 – Open Burning [PM2.5] MCS-07 Application of All Feas ible Measures [All Pollutants]

MCS-08 Emission Charges of $5,000 Per Ton for Stat ionary Sources with Potential to Emit Over 10 Tons per Year [VOC, NOx] Table continued on following page.20 South Coast 2007 AQMP Non-Quantified Control Approaches and Measures* continued Emission Growth Management EGM-02 Emission Budget and Mitigation for Gene ral Conformity Projects [All Pollutants] EGM-03 Emissions Mitigation at Federally -Permitted Projects [All Pollutants] Mobile Source Programs MOB-01 Mitigation Fee for Federal Sources [All Pollutants] MOB-02 Expanded Exchange Program [All Pollutants]

MOB-03 Backstop Measures for Indirect Sources Emissions from Ports and Port-Related Facilities [All Pollutants]

MOB-07 Concurrent Reductions from Gl obal Warming Strategies [All Pollutants]
*Draft 2007 AQMP, Chapter 4

a. Proposed Backstop Measures for Indirect Sources of Emissions from Ports and Port-Related Facilities [NOx, SOx, PM]

ARB staff’s understanding is that AQMP meas ure MOB-03 is intended to ensure that the port-related emission reductions identified in the AQMP, and in the Clean Ports Plan being developed by the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, are achieved in a timely manner. The meas ure would allow the District to impose additional controls and permit require ments on port-related sources if annual emission and risk reducti on goals are not met.

In reality, ARB’s emission reduction commi tment covers most of the reductions that will be achieved from sources at t he port and other mobile sources. The proposed State Strategy would establish a commitment to reduce emissions from a large group of source cat egories that is sufficient to meet the SIP carrying capacities identified by the District. ARB staff has associated emission reduction estimates with specific source categories to (1) identify the types of sources for which staff expects to devel op controls; (2) ensure the Board and the public that the overall commitment is reasonable an d achievable, and (3) establish goals that can be used as staff develops the s pecific programs. However, because the proposed commitment establishes basin-wid e emission reduction goals, and is structured to allow t he Board flexibility as it consi ders control options, it cannot be used to establish enforceable emission targets or backstop measures for a specific source such as the port comple x. The remaining goals identified as targets in this measure should not be incl uded in the SIP as they are not related to attaining to the Ozo ne or PM2.5 NAAQS.

Staff recommends that these targets be ex cluded from the SIP submittal. Such an action would not impact any authorit y the District may have to adopt and implement this measure as part of its AQMP.21 b. Structure of District Commitment

The District's SIP commitment for t he 2007 AQMP is structured into two components: reductions from adopted ru les and reductions from proposed new control measures. Along with the propos ed ARB State Strategy, the District relies on these reductions to demonstrate expeditious progress and attainment of the federal PM2.5 and 8- hour ozone standards.

Chapter 4 of the AQMP discusses specific methodologies the District will use to track emission reductions agai nst its SIP commitments:

• The District will continue its existing outreach efforts for rule development and improved emission calculation methodologies. Should additional technical analysis (including source test ing) indicate that actual emissions are less than previously estimated, the District will credit the surplus reductions toward the SIP commitments.

• If the inventory for a source categor y changes as rules are developed, the District will use the updated inventory info rmation for assessing the rule’s impact, but will calculate progress against the inventory used in the SIP to ensure that the reductions can be compared against commitments made in the attainment demonstration.

• The District may have to adopt regulatio ns to reflect reductions accounted for in the SIP even though t he regulations may not provide reductions beyond what has actually occurred in practice. The AQMP provides for exceptions to this procedure where new reductions ar e determined to be real, quantifiable, and surplus to the 2007 AQMP baseline inventories, and enforceable through other State and/or federal regulations.

• Inventory revisions that have gone through a peer review and public review process can be counted as credit towa rds the District’s SIP commitment.

• Credit for an additional 3 tpd of NOx reductions can also be taken for Carl Moyer Program projects already funded by the District but not previously included in ARB’s or the Distr ict’s SIP credit accounting.

c. Reductions from Adopted Rules

Current and projected emission reductions from rules that have already been adopted or implemented become assumptions in developing the SIP’s future year inventories. Continued implementat ion of these rules is essential to maintaining the attainment demonstra tion. The 2007 AQMP lists the rules adopted by the District since the adopti on of the 2003 AQMP and their expected emission reductions.22 d. Reductions from the District’s Proposed Stationary Source Control Measures

The District’s commitment is to adopt and implement control measures that will achieve, in aggregate, the em ission reductions specified in the AQMP for shortand mid-term measures, as well as reduc tions from long-term measures. The AQMP includes an annualized commitment in terms of rule adoption and implementation dates. The District proposes to apply emission reductions in excess of a given year's emission reduc tion commitment to emission reduction commitments of subsequent years.

If the District determines that a subs titute measure is needed and viable, the AQMP specifies that the District will comp lete rule development for the substitute measure no later than 12 months from the scheduled adoption date of the original control measure with implementation of the new measure to occur no later than two years from the final implementation date of the measure substituted. The District will annually notify the public of proposed revisions through its Rule Forecast Report, and wil l provide annual quant itative reports on the AQMP’s implementation progre ss at governing board meetings.

In response to concerns raised by the r egulated community that costly controls may be required to meet SIP obligations , the District has established a costeffectiveness threshold of $16,500 per ton of ROG reductions for tiered levels of analysis. Rules anticipated to be more co stly than this would trigger a more rigorous average cost-effectiveness, in cremental cost-effectiveness, and socioeconomic impact analysis, and a mo re extensive public review and decision-making process. This pr ocess does not change the District’s SIP emission reduction commitments.

2. Transportation and Land Use Planning

The transportation sector, including goods movement sources, is the largest contributor to air pollution in Southern California. SCAG is responsible for designing the region’s transportation system, in coordination with local agencies. SCAG, along with the South Coast District and the Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Committee, also controls extensive public funding to mitigate the air quality impact of vehicle emissions.

Federal law and regulations require tr ansportation plans within the Basin to conform to the approved air quality plans 11 and demonstrate t hat the region’s

11 1990 Federal Clean Air Act and the Intermodal Surface Transportation and Efficiency Act (ISTEA), Transportation Equity Act for the 21st-Century (TEA-21) and the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). The regulations governing the implementation of transportation projects within air basins are stipulated in U.S. EPA’s Transportation Conformity Rule (40 CFR Parts 51 and 93) and also the Joint Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)/Federal Transit Administration (FTA) r egulations, "Planning Assistance and Standards," 23 CFR Part 450 and 49 CFR Part 613.23 transportation plans and programs conform to federal clean air mandates in a timely manner. 12

SCAG’s Regional Transporta tion Plan (RTP) is developed every four years with a 20-year planning horizon and satisfies t he long term planning requirements for the basin. The magnitude of long -term emission reductions needed for attainment requires not only a commitment to cleaner vehicles, but also to strategies that discourage unnecessary v ehicle travel. The 2004 RTP (modified) includes draft policies, actions, and growth scenarios that control transportation-related emissions increases through strategies designed to reduce vehicle trips and trip lengths.

Short-term transportation r equirements in the Basin are addressed in SCAG’s biennial Regional Transporta tion Improvement Program (RTIP). The first two years of the RTIP are fiscally constrai ned and demonstrate timely implementation of air quality-related transportation projects called Transportation Control Measures (TCMs).

Pursuant to the Clean Air Act, U.S. EPA requi res the SIP to identify the TCMs in the RTIP 13 . U.S. EPA also requires the meas ures to be tracked for timely implementation, and that the measur es selected satisfy federal RACM requirements. The transportation stra tegy and related elements approved by SCAG and incorporated in the 2007 AQMP fall in the following categories:

• High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) Measures: Construction and dedication of new high occupancy vehicle (HOV) l anes, and differential tolls for HOVs.

• Transit and Systems Management Measures: Bus, rail, and shuttle transit expansion and improvements; park and ride lots and inter-modal transfer facilities; bicycle and pedestrian faciliti es; railroad consolidation programs, such as grade separation projects; in tersection improvements; and traffic signal synchronization.

• Information-based Transportation Strategies: Programs that promote alternatives to single occupancy vehi cle commutes, and improve congestion management strategies.

The emission benefits associated with t he regional transportation strategy are estimated at 1.8 tpd ROG and 0.24 tpd PM2.5 reductions in 2014, and 1.7 tpd ROG and 0.2 tpd NOx reductions in 2023. Because SCAG’s 2004 RTP was used to develop motor vehicle emission inventories for the Basin, these reductions are reflected in the baseline inventories. 14

12 For the discussion on transportation conformity requirements, refer to Chapter V of this report.
13 Section 108 (f)(1)(A) and also by U.S. EPA’s Transportation Conformity Rule (40 CFR Part 93). 14 For a detailed discussion of the emission reductions associated with the regional transportation strategy, refer to Appendix IV-C (Regional Transportation Strategy and Control Measures).24 F. Proposed State Strategy

The proposed State Strategy and accompany ing staff report are contained in a separate document. 15 The following table summari zes the emission reductions expected from the State Strategy in t he South Coast Air Basin in 2014, 2020, and 2023. The consensus agreement for PM2. 5 calls on ARB, the District, local agencies, and the federal government to pr ovide 76 tpd NOx reductions by, by 2014, beyond the reductions shown in the tabl e. ARB is responsible for 30 tpd of the new reductions in the agreement. ARB commitments for 2020 are included to ensure reductions in the South Coast Ai r Basin that are needed to provide for attainment by 2021 in t he Coachella Valley.

Summary of Emission Reducti on Commitments – South Coast

Year NOx ROG Direct PM2.5 SOx

2014 122 46 9 20

2020 1 144 52 -- --

2023 141 54 -- --

2023 CAA 182(e)(5)

measures 241 2 40 2
-- --

1 The 2020 commitment in the South Coast is necessary to provide for attainment in downwind

nonattainment areas.
2 The reductions of NOx and ROG from 182(e)(5 ) measures will be reassessed as new SIPs

are developed and revised.

1. Proposed Control Measures

The following tables describe ARB staff' s emission proposed emission reduction commitment for the South Coast portion of the State Strategy. The commitment includes reductions from sources tradi tionally under State control, such a consumer products and passenger vehicles, and reductions from sources such as ships and trains, which have traditi onally been considered to be subject to federal or international control. In a separate Board item, ARB staff proposes a commitment to achieve the emission reducti ons set forth in these tables, by the dates indicated

. The reductions may be achiev ed through a combination of actions, including regulations, incentives , and other enforceable mechanisms.

15 The reader can review or download the proposed State Strategy and staff report at http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm25 The 2007 AQMP identifies the relative impact of NOx, ROG, PM2.5, and SOx emissions on ambient PM2.5 levels, as indicated by the District’s air quality modeling. ARB’s emission reduction commitment for the PM2.5 SIP is predicated on the State’s abilit y to substitute emission reductions of one pollutant for another, using ratios derived from the Dis trict’s modeling. Table V-2-14 of the AQMP, replicated below, ident ifies the relative contri bution of PM2.5 precursor emissions to ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Using these factors, for example, a 1-tpd SOx reduction would be equi valent to 10 tpd of ROG or 3.33 tpd of NOx.

Relative Contributions of Precursor Emissions Reductions to Simulated Controlled Future-Year PM2.5 Concentrations

Precursor (TPD) PM2.5 Component Standardized Contribution to Mass VOC Organic Carbon Factor of 1 NOx Nitrate Factor of 3 PM2.5 Elemental Carbon & Others Factor of 5 SOx Sulfate Factor of 1026 Expected Emission Reductions fr om Proposed State Strategy South Coast PM2.5 Attainment Demonstration (2014 planning inventory, tpd)

Proposed New Measures NOx ROG Direct PM2.5 SOx

ON-ROAD SOURCES

Passenger Vehicles 14.4 17.7 0.2

-- Smog Check Improvements (BAR) 12.0 10.5 0.2 --
Expanded Vehicle Retirement 2.4 2.8 0.05 --
Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program -- 4.4 -- --

Heavy-Duty Trucks 76 5.1 3.0

-- Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks 76 5.1 3.0 --

GOODS MOVEMENT SOURCES 49.4 0.7 3.6 20.1
Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironing and Clean Technol ogy 18.5 -- 0.3 0.4
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel 20.0 -- 2.4 19.7

Port Truck Modernization 2.0 -- 0.5 --

Accelerated Introduction of Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives* 4.3 0.7 0.2 --
Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft 4.6 -- 0.2 --

OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT 10.5 2.7 2.6
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (over 25hp) 10.5 2.7 2.6 --
Cleaner In-Use Agricultural Equipment NYQ NYQ -- --

OTHER OFF-ROAD SOURCES 0.4 8.9

New Emission Standards for Re creational Boats 0.4 4.2 -- --
Expanded Off-Road Recreational Vehi cle Emission Standards -- 2.4 -- --
Additional Evaporative Emi ssions Standards -- NYQ -- NYQ
Vapor Recovery for Above Ground Storage Tanks -- NYQ -- NYQ

AREAWIDE SOURCES
Consumer Products Program -- 12.9 -- --

Pesticides: DPR 2008 Pesticide Plan -- NYQ --

-- Total Emission Reductions from Proposed New Measures 122 46 9 20

NYQ = Not Yet Quantified. BAR = Bureau of Automotive Repair. DPR = Department of Pesticide Regulation * Ship and Commercial Boats to 100 miles ** Locomotive measure relies on U.S. EPA rulemaking and industry agreement to accelerate fleet turnover. Note: Emission reductions reflect the combination impact of regulations and supportive incentive programs.27 Expected Emission Reductions fr om Proposed New Measures South Coast Air Basin – 2020 and 2023 (planning inventories, tpd)

2020 2023 Proposed New Measures NOx ROG NOx ROG

ON-ROAD SOURCES
Passenger Vehicles 9.6 12.9 7.1 10.5 Smog Check Improvements (BAR) 8.3 8.7 6.9 7.5 Expanded Vehicle Retirement 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.5 Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program -- 3.0 -- 2.5
Heavy-Duty Trucks 26.9 2.6 18.3 1.7 Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks 26.9 2.6 18.3 1.7

GOODS MOVEMENT SOURCES 87.1 1.8 99.2 1.9 Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironi ng and Clean Techno logy 28.3 -- 30.8 -- Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel 32.3 -- 39.9 --

Port Truck Modernization 8.0 -- 7.0 --

Accelerated Introduction of Cleaner Li ne-Haul Locomotives** 13.4 1.8 15.6 1.9 Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft 5.1 NYQ 5.9 NYQ

OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT 18.7 2.9 13.9 1.9 Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (over 25hp) 18.7 2.9 13.9 1.9 Cleaner In-Use Agricultural Equipment NYQ NYQ NYQ NYQ

OTHER OFF-ROAD SOURCES 1.6 21.1 2.4 27.7

New Emission Standards for Recr eational Boats 1.6 12.8 -- 17.6 Expanded Off-Road Recreational Vehicle Emission Standards -- 5.1 -- 6.4

Additional Evaporative Emi ssion Standards -- NYQ -- NYQ Vapor Recovery for Above Ground Storage Tanks -- NYQ -- NYQ

AREAWIDE SOURCES -- 13.7 Consumer Products Program -- 13.5 -- 13.7

Pesticides: DPR 2008 Pesticide Plan -- NYQ -- NYQ
Total Emission Reductions from Proposed New Measures 144 52 141 54

NYQ = Not Yet Quantified. BAR = Bureau of Automotive Repair. DPR = Department of Pesticide Regulation * Ship and Commercial Boats to 100 miles ** Locomotive measure relies on U.S. EPA rulemaking and industry agreement to accelerate fleet turnover. Note: Emission reductions reflect the combination impact of regulations and supportive incentive programs.28 G. Local Government Measures

ARB staff proposes that air quality-rela ted motor vehicle registration fees collected in the air basin be used to achieve an additional 4 tpd of NOx reductions through the funding of SIP-credit able projects. (SIP credit is not currently taken for projects funded with these fees.) South Coast cities and counties should target their air quality funds to get the most cost-effective emission reductions. This target repres ents about 40 percent of the funds under city and county control used for projects achieving cost-effectiveness similar to the Carl Moyer Program. ARB would am end its guidance on the use of the fees to include new cost-effectiveness gui delines and a suggested list of SIPcreditable projects. SIP credit could also be taken for South Coast Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Co mmittee projects that achieve surplus emission reductions.

H. Federal Measures

Apart from California mobile source author ity that is explicitly authorized under the Act, U.S. EPA has the authority to contro l emissions from mobile sources that are all or partly under exclus ive federal jurisdiction (e.g ., interstate trucks, some farm and construction equipment, aircraft, lo comotives, and marine vessels that are US-flagged ships). International or ganizations develop standards for marine vessels and aircraft that operate outside U.S. territori al waters and airspace. Federal agencies have the lead role in r epresenting the U.S. in the development of international standards. Measures in the proposed State Strategy to reduce emissions from interstate and inter national sources rely on the federal government to develop more stringent em issions standards and to ensure these standards go into effect as soon as possible.

ARB is proposing to reduce ship emissions through a combination of regulations, incentives, and actions by ports and the private sector. Ho wever, national and international action to clean up shipping fl eets is also needed to fully realize our clean air goals. And aircraft emissi ons, which will become one of the South Coast’s top five NOx sources by 2020, are unaddressed in the State Strategy due to the lack of effective international standards.

The consensus reached among the staff of the ARB, the District, and SCAG proposes that the federal government prov ide funding to mitigate the impacts of federal sources that are less well contro lled than California regulated sources in order to meet the PM2.5 attainm ent deadline. Line-haul and switcher locomotives operating in the South C oast would produce 10 tpd of excess NOx emissions in 2014 because the U.S. EPA’s proposed new engine standards for NOx are not expected to be fully implement ed until 2017. This 10 tpd target is equivalent to the emission reductions t hat would have been achieved had U.S. EPA adopted its proposed Tier 4 NOx locomoti ves standard in time for the State to work to convert all locomotives operat ing in the basin to Tier 4 by 2014.29 To the extent that SCA G, through its RTP process, identifies transportation infrastructure measures (e.g., rail elec trification) that will achieve quantifiable reductions, these reductions can be used to substitute for the SIP commitments.

I. Reasonable Further Progress

The CAA requires SIPs to provide for steady progress in reducing emissions during the years leading to the attainment date 16 . This requirement provides a way to measure compliance prior to the a ttainment date. U.S. EPA requires that the RFP plan show linear progress accord ing to emission reduction milestones the region establishes for 2009 and ever y three years thereafter until the attainment year.

PM2.5. For PM2.5, the Plan must show RFP for directly emitted PM2.5 and the precursor pollutants identified in the attainment demonstrat ion, in this case, NOx, SOx, and ROG. Emission reductions and program milestone years used in the RFP plan must be based on the prior y ears’ emissions. Since the District is requesting an extension for attainment of the PM2.5 standar d out to 2015, the years 2009, 2012, and 2014 are used to det ermine RFP. U.S. EPA guidance provides two alternatives for assessing RFP for PM2.5 strategies. The first assesses progress for each precursor agai nst the required rate of progress without considering how much each prec ursor contributes to ambient PM2.5 concentrations. The second uses information gained from the attainment demonstration modeling to consider how much reductions of each pollutant contribute to attainment. In essenc e, this equivalency approach tries to approximate the progress that will be m ade in improving air quality.

The 1-year window between the completion of this plan and 2009 does not much allow time to new implement programs that will provide the steep reductions needed to meet a 2009 target. Nonetheless, the proposed strategy described in this report meets the 2009 RFP goal using the more robust equivalency approach.

Ozone. Since U.S. EPA has already approved the District’s RFP plan for the 1-hour ozone standard, the District is onl y required to provide for VOC and/or NOx reductions of three percent per y ear from the 2002 base line year averaged over each consecutive three-year per iod beginning in 2008 until the Basin’s attainment date (i.e., June 2023).

The AQMP meets the requir ed rate of ozone progress for each milestone year on the basis of reductions from the existing regulatory program using a combination of ROG and NOx reductions . No new reductions fr om the proposed control measures in the Plan are needed for progr ess purposes. Up until the year 2017, projected ROG baseline emissions are suffi cient to meet the CAA requirements.

16 Section 172(c)(2)30 For the milestone years 2017, 2020, and 2023 the baseline ROG emission levels will be supplemented by proj ected NOx reductions to show compliance with the targeted thresholds.

The following tables summarize the calc ulations needed to demonstrate RFP for 8-hour ozone. These tables are also contained in Appendix D of the proposed State Strategy.

Summary of Ozone RFP - ROG

CALCULATION STEP a 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

2002 Base Year Emissions b 896.7 896.7 896.7 896.7 896.7 896.7

Required Reduction (%) c 18% 27% 36% 45% 54% 63%

Emission Reductions Needed d 161.4 242.1 322.8 403.5 484.2 564.9

Target Level e 735.3 654.6 573.9 493.2 412.5 331.8

Projected Baseline f, g 654.9 603.1 569.1 549.5 538.4 536.0 Percent Reduction Achieved (%) g

h 27% 33% 37% 39% 40% 40%

Summary of Ozone RFP Calculations – NOx

CALCULATION STEP a 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

2002 Base Year Emissions b 1078.5 1078.5 1078.5 1078.5 1078.5 1078.5

Required Reduction (%) c 0% 0% 0% 6% 14% 23%

Emission Reductions Needed d 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.7 151.0 248.1

Target Level e 0.0 0.0 0.0 1013.8 927.5 830.4

Projected Baseline f, g 848.2 738.5 650.3 578.4 523.9 505.6 Percent Reduction Achieved (%) g

h 21% 32% 40% 46% 51% 53%

a Units are in tons per day (summer) unless otherwise noted;
b Contains only anthropogenic emissions;

c 3% per year (total VOC reductions from 2002 baseline year);
d [(Row 1) x (Row 2)]/100;

e (Row 1) – (Row 3);
f Projected baseline emissions shown in Appendix III taking into account existing rules and projected growth.;

g The projected baseline includes the motor vehicle emissions depicted in the emission budgets showing that the motor vehicle emissions are below the RFP targets; g h [(1-(Row 5)/(Row 1))] x 10031 J. Contingency Measures

The Act requires that the SIP provide for c ontingency measures in the event of a failure to meet RFP milestones and/or fa ilure to attain the PM2.5 or the 8-hour ozone standard by the attainment date. 17 These contingency measures are to take effect without further ARB or air di strict action, and thus must already be adopted when the SIP is submi tted to U.S. EPA. Nonatta inment areas classified as extreme for the 8-hour ozone st andard must also adopt contingency measures to be implemented if the anticipated advanced technologies do not achieve the planned reductions.

ARB’s existing mobile source program and the proposed State Strategy will achieve the bulk of emissions reductions needed to attain the federal standards. ARB has a well established history of adopting and implementing mobile source control regulations on-time or early. As a result, we expect to achieve and even exceed RFP goals without the need for cont ingency measures. However, the CAA requirements necessitate that we pr ovide contingency measures regardless of our expected progress in reducing emissions toward the attainment goals. The emission reductions from adopted measures that go beyond the RFP requirements in each target year will constitute Califor nia’s contingency measure commitment implemented in the unlikely ev ent that the State does not meet the reasonable further progress goals.

ARB's contingency measure commitment is included in A ppendix D of the Proposed State Strategy.

The District has supplemented ARB’s propos al with four additional contingency measures. These measures include: revising stationary source NOx requirements to offset higher emission increases resulti ng from the use of natural gas with higher heating values, emission charges for major sources, episodic curtailments for older off -road equipment (operational requirements), and asking ARB to accelerated the development or implementation of mobile source measures if a reasonable further progress milestone is missed.



### K. Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) Analysis

Section 172(c)(1) and (c)(2) of the C AA requires each nonattainment area to demonstrate that it has adopted all reas onably available control measures (RACM) necessary to show that it will attain the applicable standard as expeditiously as practicable and to meet RFP requirements. RACM are those measures that are technologically and economically feasible within the nonattainment area.

17 Section 172(c)(9)32 District RACM. As part of the RACM demonstration, the District must show that there are no additional, ex isting reasonable measures available to the District that would advance the attainment date by at least one year or contribute to RFP for the area. The District must also consider, and include where applicable, cost-effective clean-air technologies that are contained in regul atory programs for other air districts in and outside of Califor nia. Where available, the District must also provide cost-effectiveness analyse s of control measures evaluated.

The District has included a RACM dem onstration for the ozone precursor pollutants (i.e., ROG a nd NOx). This RACM dem onstration identifies and evaluates all stationary source measures the District has implemented or plans to implement in the future and compares t hem with measures im plemented by other agencies within and outside of the State. More detailed information on this analysis can be found in Appe ndix VI of the 2007 AQMP.

Pursuant to California Health and Safe ty Code Section 39614 (SB 656, 2003), the District also evaluated a statewide list of feasible and cost-effective control measures to reduce directly emitted particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and PM precursor emissions (i.e ., ROG, NOx, and SOx).

Based on these analyses, the District concluded that for the majority of stationary and area source categories, t he District had the most stringent rules in California. However, the District identified one m easure from the stat ewide RACM list – Wood Burning Fireplaces/Heaters – for adopt ion by the District and it is included in the 2007 AQMP fo r near-term adoption.

The ARB submitted the District's ozone Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) SIP to U.S. EPA on January 31, 2007, with a finding that the revision meets federal requirements by demonstrating the application of RACT on all affected stationary sources of ozone precursor emissions. RACT measures are a subset of RACM. This submittal satisfies the RACM requirements for the 8- hour ozone standard.

SCAG RACM. U.S. EPA’s RACM guidelines also call for an analysis of transportation control measures proposed in the plan. Consequently, SCAG has completed a RACM determination for trans portation control measures that can be found in Appendix IV -C of the AQMP.

ARB RACM. U.S. EPA has already determined t hat the California (i.e., ARB) control programs for mobile so urces and fuels constitute BACM. 18 Moreover, whereas U.S. EPA deems its federal mobile source program to establish best available control measures for the nation, the California progr am generally goes beyond federal mobile source requirem ents (where not otherwise prescribed by

18 See page 5419 of the February 4, 2004 proposed rulemaking for the San Joaquin Valley PM10 plan, and page 30035 of the May 26, 2004 final rule

.33 federal law). Therefore, ARB believes that the State mobile source program exceeds federal RACM requirements.

III. COACHELLA VALLEY OZONE ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION

A. Profile of Coachella Valley

The Coachella Valley federal nonattainm ent area lies in the Salton Sea Air Basin portion of Riverside County and is ali gned in a northwest-southeast orientation stretching from San Gorgonio Pass to t he Salton Sea. Geographically, the Valley is bounded by the San Jacinto Mountains to the west, the Little San Bernardino Mountains on the east, San Bernardino Coun ty to the north, and Imperial County on the south. Elevations range from approximately 500 feet above sea level in the northern part of the Valley to about 150 feet below seal le vel near the Salton Sea. The Valley was historically an agr icultural area irrigated by water from the Colorado River, but is now experiencing significant population growth as a one of the fastest growing areas in the state. Winters are mild and summers are hot in this desert environment. Prevailing winds flow from west to east, carrying pollutants emitted in the South Coast Air Basin to the Valley.

The Valley covers about 2,500 squar e miles and is home to about 410,000 people. The region’s population is dist ributed throughout the Valley floor in modest-sized communities and is expected to grow by 32% over the next ten years.

Air quality in the Coachella Valley is heavily impacted by ozone and ozone precursor emissions transported from t he South Coast Air Basin. Levels of ozone precursor gasses emitted with in the Ozone Coachella Valley in 2006 – 56 tpd of NOx and 22 tpd of ROG – were less than five perc ent of ROG and NOx emissions generated in the South Coast Ai r Basin. The San Gorgonio Pass is one of the major outlets for air pollution from the Sout h Coast to the Coachella Valley.

B. Nature of the Problem

Air quality in the Coachella Valley has improved over the last decade as measured by the decline in measured oz one concentrations, and in the number of days over the 8-hour standard of 0.08 parts per million (ppm).

Ozone “design values” are used to charac terize a region’s air quality for SIP planning purposes. The design value is a three-year average of the annual fourth highest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentration. The use of the 3-year average helps mi nimize the year-to-year influence of meteorology. The U.S. Environmental Protection A gency (U.S. EPA) designated Coachella Valley as “nonattainment” based on its 2001-2003 design value. As the following34 figure shows, the Valley’s design value has declined by 8 percent in the past ten years.



### Figure XX. Coachella Valley Federal 8-hr Ozone Design Value (1990-2006)

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YearDesign Value (ppm)

The air quality monitor in Palm Springs has recorded the Valley’s highest ozone levels in all of the last 10 years. The monitoring site is located near the center of the city, in the northern por tion of the Valley, and is at an elevation of 585 feet above sea level. Due to prevailing winds from northwest to southeast, the site is impacted primarily by emissions from the South Coast Air Basin through the nearby San Gorgonio Pass. Coachella Valley’s 2006 design value is 0.102 ppm.35 The number of days over t he standard (exceedance days) is an indication of how frequently the population is exposed to unhealthful air quality. The next figure illustrates the decline in number of days over the standard in Coachella Valley. In the past ten years, t he number of days annually in which ozone concentrations in the Valley exceeded the national 8- hour standard has declined by 50 percent.



### Figure XX. Coachella Valley Federal 8-hr Ozone Exceedance Days (1990-2006)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YearExceedance Days

C. Emissions Inventory

The main sources of South Coast Air Basin’s and Coachella Valley’s ozone precursor emissions are reasonably sim ilar. As a result, emission reduction strategies designed to move the South Coast Air Basin toward attainment will significantly reduce locally -generated emissions in t he Coachella Valley. For NOx, the major sources are on-road v ehicles and off-road equipment. For ROG, the inventory is dominated by on -road vehicles, off-road equipment, and consumer products. The following tabl es show the top ten NOx and ROG emission sources in the Coachella Valley.36 Coachella Valley Top Ten NOx Emissions Sources 2006 SIP Summer Season Emissions Inventory Coachella Valley

Source Category Emissions (tpd) Ranking

OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT 4 2

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS 36 1

PASSENGER VEHICLES 2 4

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS 2 5

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS – LDT2 2 6

SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS - NA

MEDIUM DUTY TRUCKS 1 8

TRAINS 3 3

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS 0.5 11
LIGHT DUTY TRUCK – LDT1 0.6 10

AIRCRAFT 1 7
FARM EQUIPMENT 1 9

SUBTOTAL OF TOP CATEGORIES 53

TOTAL OF ALL CATEGORIES 56

Coachella Valley Top Ten ROG Emissions Sources 2006 SIP Summer Season Emissions Inventory Coachella Valley

Source Category Emissions (tpd) Ranking

PASSENGER VEHICLES 3 1

CONSUMER PRODUCTS 3 3
OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT 2 4

RECREATIONAL BOATS 1 5

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS – LDT2 1 6

ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS 0.8 8

PETROLEUM MARKETING 0.5 13

COATINGS AND RELATED PROCESSES 0.8 9

MEDIUM DUTY TRUCKS 0.7 10

LIGHT DUTY TRUCK – LDT1 0.7 11

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS 3 2

PESTICIDES/FERTILIZERS 0.8 7

SUBTOTAL OF TOP CATEGORIES 17

TOTAL OF ALL CATEGORIES 22

Because the ozone attainment deadline falls in the middle of the 2013 ozone season and design values are calculated for calendar years, the SIP must provide for sufficient emission reducti ons in 2012 in order to demonstrate attainment in 2013. The following table summarizes projected emission reductions from 2006, the base year for th is plan, to 2012, the ozone season that must be modeled to demonstrate attainment by June 2013. The baseline37 inventories reflected in this table reflect projected growth in the Coachella Valley, and State and local controls adop ted through December, 2006.

Coachella Valley Baseline Emission Trends with Measures Adopted as of 2006 (summer planning inventory, tpd)

ROG NOx Source Category 2006 2012 % Change 2006 2012 % Change Stationary & Area-wide 6.6 7.3 +11% 1.4 1.3 -7%

On-Road Motor Vehicles 9.4 6.4 -32% 43.6 25.5 -41%

Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment 5.5 4.8 -13% 9.1 8.3 -9%

TOTAL 21.6 18.6 -14% 54.1 35.1 -35%
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

D. Attainment Demonstration

Coachella Valley’s “serious” nonattain ment area classification requires attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by June 15, 2013. The Valley needs to demonstrate a design value of 0.084 ppm (at most) in 2012 to attain the NAAQS. In 2006, the Valley exceeded the st andard on 26 days with an ozone design value of 0.102 ppm, which is approximately 21 perc ent over the standard. Existing and proposed control programs in the South Coast Air Basin are expected to reduce the transport of ozone and ozone precursors ROG and NOx by about 29 and 46 percent, respectively, by the 2013 deadline. The District’s analysis indicates that these reductions wil l not be sufficient to attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in 2013. Instead, the District’s modeling analysis shows that the Coachella Valley will not attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS until 2017.

E. Photochemical Modeling

The photochemical modeling used to det ermine the attainment date in the Coachella Valley was conducted by the District using the EPA-accepted “Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Ex tensions” (CAMx) modeling system to estimate the emissions reductions needed to achieve the ozone standards. A meteorological model, Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5), was used to drive the transport and dispersion in the CAMx model.

The District’s air quality modeling conclud ed that attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by 2013 was not possible, but t hat a design value of 0.084 ppm would38 be achieved by 2017. U.S. EPA’s ozone modeling guidance indicates that when photochemical modeling projects attainm ent year concentrations of 0.082-0.087 ppm, the State may conduct further anal yses of the model outcomes and consider other evidence such as emi ssions and air quality trends data. If the weight of this evidence supports a findi ng that the proposed control program will result in attainment by the statutor y deadline, the State may consider this evidence in determining whether the pr oposed control program will result in attainment. ARB staff conducted a weight of evidence (WOE) attainment demonstration to evaluate the likelihood of attainment by 2017.

F. Supplemental Analysis

The supplemental analysis c onducted for the Coachella Valley concludes, on the basis of air quality and emission trends, t hat the Valley will attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by 2015. This result is due primarily to the overwhelming influence of transport from the South Coas t Air Basin on Coachella Valley ozone levels, and the massive reductions in pr ecursor pollutant emissions planned for the South Coast Air Basin over the next ei ght years. Statistical analysis of ozone air quality trends in the two areas shows a very high correlation between the South Coast Air Basin and the Coachella Valley levels during the period of 1997 and 2005, and an analysis of diurnal variat ions shows that hourly ozone peaks occur progressively later in the day at monitoring sites at increasing distances east of the eastern boundary of the Sout h Coast Air Basin. The ARB staff supplemental analysis concurs with the Distr ict’s conclusion of attainment by 2018 or earlier.

IV. ON-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGETS

Under section 176(c) of the Act, transportation activiti es that receive federal funding or approval must be found to be fully consistent with the SIP.

U.S. EPA's transportation conformity ru le, found in 40 CFR parts 51 and 93, details the requirements for establishing mo tor vehicle emissions budgets in SIPs for the purpose of ensuring the conformi ty of transportation plans and programs with the SIP attainment dem onstration. The on-road motor vehicle emissions budgets act as a "ceiling" for future on -road mobile source emissions.

Exceedances of the budget indicate an inconsistency with the SIP, and could jeopardize the flow of federal funds for transportation im provements in the region. Projected regional on-road mobile sour ce emissions are compared to these budgets during the periodic updates of regional transportation plans and programs.39 The federal transportation conformity regulation 19 requires SIPs to specify the levels of on-road motor vehicle emissions that are consistent with attainment and maintenance of air quality standards. To receive federal approval and funding, transportation agencies must demonstrate that emissions from transportation plans, programs, and projects co nform to these “emission budgets.”

Conformity budgets previously publish ed in the 2007 AQMP and approved by the District board reflect the mobile source measures the District had proposed for ARB adoption. Budgets that reflect the approved SIP revision, including the approved State Strategy, will be made available for public review and comment as required by federal regulations, and for review by SCAG’s Conformity Working Group, before the budgets are adopted as separate action and submitted to U.S. EPA as a SIP revision.

A. Budget Approach

The ozone emission budgets for ROG and NOx are derived from the summer planning inventory and the r eductions from defined new measures in the AQMP that reduce on-road mobile source emi ssions. The PM2.5 emission budgets for PM2.5, and the PM2. 5 precursors ROG and NOx, are derived from the annual average inventory. These budgets refl ect existing control programs and new commitments for technology and tr ansportation control measures.

For conformity budget calculation purpos es, on-road emissions will be adjusted by the projected emission reductions from the proposed control measures specific to on-road sources. In the pr oposed Statewide Strategy, this includes the following ARB proposed control measures:

• Smog Check Improvements

• Expanded Vehicle Retirement

• Modifications to the Reformulated Gasoline Program

• Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks

• Truck Modernization

• Enhanced Heavy-Duty Truck Measures

Proposed measures that may address but are not limited to on-road vehicles, such as the proposals to secure addition al reductions from port-related sources or to use DMV registration fees for SIP- creditable projects, will not be will not be reflected in the conformity budgets.

The approach is consistent with U.S. EPA's transportation conformity rule, which provides that if emission budgets rely on new control measures, these measures should be specified in the SIP and the emission reductions from each control

19 U.S. EPA maintains online information on its transportation conformity program, including access to relevant rulemakings, policy guidance, and reports at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/transp/traqconf.htm

.40 measure should be quantified and s upported by agency commitments for adoption and implementation schedules. Mo reover, to comply with U.S. EPA’s rule, the conformity anal yses by transportation agencies cannot take credit for measures which have not been implemented unless the measures are "projects, programs, or activities" in the SI P supported by wri tten implementation commitments by the responsible agencies. 20

The emission budgets for ozone and PM2.5 ar e provided up to the respective attainment year (i.e., 2014 and 2023). However, since transportation analyses are needed beyond the attainment dates, the carrying capacities for the ozone attainment demonstration also serve as the budgets for future years (e.g., 2030 for PM2.5 and ozone). Ozone precursor em issions from moto r vehicles are projected to continue declining through these extended periods.

V. REVIEW OF PUBLIC PROCESS

The District held numerous public m eetings, workshops, advisory group meetings, and regional hearings throughout the two year process leading up to its public hearing to consider approval of the AQMP. The District governing board also convened a hearing on the Draf t AQMP in each county within the air basin as required by State law 21 . The District's 2007 AQMP document the public process and demonstrates compliance wit h State and federal public process requirements.

The sequence of public meetings held to discuss the elements of the proposed State Strategy is described in the staff report developed for the Board’s consideration of the Strat egy. In addition to the general workshops, ARB staff worked extensively with South Coast Dis trict staff to refine the technical components of the plan, and to deve lop control options and associated emissions reduction estimates for discussi on in public workshops and inclusion in the draft AQMP and St ate Strategies.

VI. POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Potential environmental and economic im pacts are addressed in the South Coast AQMP, which is available at http://www.aqmd.gov/aqmp/ 07aqmp/07AQMP_socio.html

, and in the ARB staff Proposed St ate Strategy, available at http://www.arb.ca.gov/pl anning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm

.

20 62 FR 43780 and 40 CFR 93, subpart A. 21 California Health and Safety Code (HSC) section 40466.41 The environmental, economic, environm ental justice, and global warming impacts associated with specific contro l measures will also be addressed as those programs are adopted.42

## GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS

2007 AQMP Proposed 2007 Air Quality M anagement Plan for the South Coast Air Basin South Coast District South Coast Air Quality Management District
ARB California Air Resources Board

PM2.5 Federal ambient air qualit y standard for particulate matter concentrations under 2.5 microns in size

8-Hour Ozone Federal ambient air quality standard for ozone concentrations averaged over 8 hours
SCAG Southern California Association of Governments VOC Volatile organic compounds ROG Reactive organic gases NOx Nitrogen oxides
SOx Sulfur oxides TPD Tons per day RACMs Reasonably Availa ble Control Measures RACT Reasonable Available Control Technology
BARCT Best Available Retr ofit Control Technology
SCAB South Coast Air Basin CAA, or Act Federal Clean Air Act State Strategy Proposed ARB control measures for the 2007 AQMP ug/m3 Micrograms per cubic meter ppm Parts per million