NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

The Impact of Lithium Availability 

on Vehicle Electrification

Jeremy Neubauer

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

NREL/PR-5400-52393
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

• Objective 

– To use NREL modeling tools to study the relationship between 

electric drive vehicles (EDVs) and lithium (Li) availability

• Outline

– Is Li Supply a Concern?

• Li resources and production

• Potential EDV market demands for Li

– How Can We Maximize Our “Return on Lithium”?

• NREL modeling tools and approach

• Vehicle performance results

• Carbon dioxide (CO2) and gasoline displacement per unit mass of Li

• Effects of production limits, recycling, grid/2nd use, and cost

• Summary 
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

How Much Li is There?

• Latest Li reports from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS):

– Global resource of 33 million metric tonnes

– Global reserve of 13 million metric tonnes 

Adapted from USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, 2000 to 2011

Reserve 

(Economical)

Resource

(Feasible)
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

How Much Li is Produced?

• Consumer Li-ion batteries use ~ 20%

• Non-EDV markets would consume ~8% of the reserve by 2050 if held constant at 2010 

levels

• Non-EDV markets would consume ~25% of the reserve by 2050 if increased at 5%/year

Adapted from USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries and USGS Mineral Yearbook, 2000 to 2011

*Annual production numbers exclude U.S. production, but U.S. production is thought to be minimal
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

How Many Batteries Can We Build?

• Cobalt (Co) is the limiting element for low volume Li-ion chemistries (we’ll ignore these)

• Li is the limiting element for high volume Li-ion chemistries (this is our focus)

• We will assume C6/LiMn2O4 moving forward

– Chemistry in the Nissan LEAF and Chevy Volt

– ~8.9 Wh/g Li

~250 GWh 

Annual 

Production

~100 

TWh 

Reserve 

Base

Limiting 

element

Adapted from C. Wadia et al. Journal of Power Sources 196 (1022) 593-1598

Based on 2009 USGS reported reserve base of 11 million tons of Li
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

How Do U.S. EV Markets Compare to Li Supply?

• Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) study considers “...the maximum percent of U.S. sales 

that could be accounted for by” EDVs:

– Entails the sale of 465 million EDVs through 2050, reaching 90% of total light-duty vehicle sales by 2050

– Eight vehicle types: light truck and light car versions of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and plug-in hybrid 

electric vehicles (PHEVs), such as the PHEV20s and PHEV40s, and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), such 

as the BEV100s 

– Note that this is an extreme and aggressive case study, not a projection

Adapted from L. Gaines et al., “Lithium-Ion Batteries: Possible Materials Issues,” ANL 2010
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

How Do Global EV Markets Compare to Li Supply?

• International Energy Agency (IEA) study considers the deployment of sufficient EDVs to 

provide “a 30% reduction in transport CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2005”:

– Entails the sale of 1.6 billion EDVs through 2050

– Two vehicle types: PHEV25s and BEV90s

– Note that this is a target to meet emissions goals, not a projection

Based upon EDV deployment targets from “Technology Roadmap: Electric and plug-in 

hybrid electric vehicles,” IEA 2009
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Is Lithium Supply a Concern?

• From the authors of the ANL study:

– “It appears that even an aggressive program of vehicles with 

electric drive can be supported for decades with known supplies.”

– Caveats: electric range, global EDV demand, non-EDV markets

• From a look at global data and non-EDV markets:

– Aggressive EDV penetration and non-EDV markets growing at 

5%/yr result in consumption of <50% of the 2011 Li reserve by 

2050...

– ...and requires ~7%/yr increase in Li production.

• Conclusion: the supply of Li does not appear to be an 

immediate or deadly threat to the EDV market
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Can the Lithium Supply Become a Concern?

• Demand and technology are uncertain

• Supply of Li and its substitutes are 

not always indigenous

• Resources and reserves are dynamic

• Thus, within the EDV market, 

what is the best way to utilize Li to minimize CO2

emissions and fossil fuel consumption?
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Objective: Evaluate “Return on Lithium”

1 kg Li (?) HEVs

1 kg Li (?) PHEV12s

1 kg Li (?) PHEV35s

1 kg Li (?) BEV75s

Displaced gasoline?

Displaced CO2?

?

?

?
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

How We’ll Get There

1. Simulate comparable vehicles with each powertrain 

to calculate amount of lithium required and fuel and 

electricity used per mile

2. Apply U.S. average trip distribution to each vehicle to 

calculate total fuel and electricity consumed

3. Calculate total CO2 emitted from total fuel and 

electricity consumed using multiple electricity mix 

scenarios

4. Compare results to a ~32 mpg conventional vehicle 

using the following metrics: 

– Gallons of gasoline displaced per tonne of Li used

– Tonnes of CO2 displaced per tonne of Li used
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Vehicle Analysis

• NREL Future Automotive 

Systems Tool

– Objective: Compare technology 

improvement impacts on the 

efficiency, performance, and 

cost of the leading powertrains

– Approach: Include only the most 

important aspects

– Benefits: Easy to use, fast, and 

captures most important 

performance aspects

– Validated: Outputs validated 

against Powertrain System 

Analysis Toolkit (PSAT) and 

real-world data

0 500 1000 1500 2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Time (seconds)

ICE Power Out (kW)

ICE Power Out=f(Fuel In)

PSAT

T3(PSAT) FAST

 

PSAT

FAST T3(PSAT)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Fuel Economy (MPG)

Fuel Economy Validation

Actual

Model

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Tesla Roadster MINI E

65 MPH kWh/mile

Const 65 MPH Validation

Actual

Model
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Vehicle Optimization

• Mid-size sedan platform assumed 

(similar to the Nissan LEAF and 

the Chevy Volt)

• Internal combustion engine, 

electric motor, and battery size 

optimized to provide performance 

in table

• Primary outputs are gal/mi and 

kWh/mi consumed

– Calculated using the 

Environmental Protection 

Agency’s weighted 

combination of highway and 

urban dynamometer driving 

schedule drive cycles

0-60 mph 

time

Electric 

Range

Degree of 

Hybridization

CV 10 s n/a n/a

HEV 10 s n/a 20%

PHEV12 10 s 12 mi 50%

PHEV35 10 s 35 mi 50%

BEV75 10 s 75 mi n/a

BEV150 10 s 150 mi n/a
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Consumption Analysis

• NREL Battery Ownership Model:

– A tool to systematically evaluate battery- related EDV business strategies

– Detailed consideration of vehicle 

performance (FAST), battery wear, 

infrastructure, and finance at every level

– Primary outputs are total cost of ownership, 

greenhouse gas (GHG) production, and 

fuel and electricity usage

• Of note for this study:

– Vehicles applied to National Highway 

Traffic Safety Administration based daily 

drive distance probability function with 

12,375 mi vehicle miles traveled (VMT) to 

calculate fuel and electricity consumption

– BEV range limitations addressed via fast 

charging or HEV usage

– Transmission losses and charger efficiency 

considered to calculate GHGs under 

multiple electricity mix scenarios

For BEVs, trips longer 

than the charge 

depleting range are 

assumed to be achieved 

via fast charging or 

performed by an HEV
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Battery Energy and Lithium Content

• PHEVs restricted to 65% depth of discharge 

(DOD), BEVs to 90% DOD

• Battery size more than doubles between EV75 

and EV150 because of efficiency decline
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Vehicle Efficiency

• Conventional gasoline-powered vehicle (CV) efficiency is 

considerably improved with the addition of a small battery to 

make it an HEV

• EDVs decrease in efficiency as battery mass increases
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Gasoline Consumption

• Fuel usage falls strongly across this powertrain 

spectrum on a per vehicle basis

• The PHEV35 and BEV75 have nearly identical utility 

factors

BEVxx + HEV: HEV used to cover 

trips longer than BEVxx range

BEVxx + FC: Fast charging employed 

to cover trips longer than BEVxx 

range
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Gasoline Displacement 

• Displacement relative to 32 mpg CV

• Under our assumptions, HEVs offer the best ability to 

displace gasoline on a per-unit-mass-of-Li basis
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

CO2 Emissions

• CO2 emissions per vehicle are very sensitive to the 

charging electricity mix

• Higher degrees of vehicle electrification are not 

always better
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

CO2 Displacement 

• Displacement relative to 32 mpg CV

• Under our assumptions, HEVs offer the best ability to displace 

CO2 on a per-unit-mass-of-Li basis
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

“Return on Lithium” Evaluated

14 HEVs 3.3 kg Li

4.5 PHEV12s 3.3 kg Li

3.3 kg Li 1.5 PHEV35s

3.3 kg Li 1 BEV75

Displaces

379 Gal Gasoline/yr

4.75 Tonnes CO2/yr

With fast-charging and zero carbon electricity

Displaces

440 Gal Gasoline/yr

5.51 Tonnes CO2/yr

With zero carbon electricity

Displaces

945 Gal Gasoline/yr

11.9 Tonnes CO2/yr

With zero carbon electricity mix

Displaces

1,765 Gal Gasoline/yr

22.1 Tonnes CO2/yr
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Summary

• Li supply does not appear to be a problem given today’s reserve and production 

quantities, even under aggressive expectations for EDV deployments

– BEVs offer the largest gasoline displacement capability

– BEVs are not always the best at CO2 displacement - heavily dependent on electricity 

mix

• Were Li supply to become a concern under changing conditions in the short or long 

term...

– HEVs offer the best “return on lithium” for both gas and CO2 displacement, but mass 

deployment may be demand limited

– Under our assumptions, short-range PHEVs may have the maximum impact in a 

limited Li market

– Li recycling yields near those of lead in lead acid batteries would likely alleviate any 

envisioned Li supply stress

• Our FAST and Battery Ownership Model computational tools are capable of 

exploring these trades and optimizing resource utilization.
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Acknowledgments 

• This activity is funded by the U.S. Department of 

Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Program, 

Energy Storage Technology

• We appreciate the support provided by DOE program 

managers David Howell and Brian Cunningham