Draft EIS Appendix 35 

APPENDIX 35—SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS 

AND SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA 

ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

Significance Criteria 

Significance criteria for socioeconomic impacts were determined by analyzing long-term (20-year) trends

and fluctuations in certain important economic variables, including total employment and mineral ad

valorem taxes associated with natural gas production for the four-county study area. This analysis 

evaluated the long-term trends to determine the approximate changes likely to occur in the variables 

under normal conditions. Deviations from the trend over this 20-year period are considered the threshold 

of what can be tolerated by the regional economy for these two variables. Any changes beyond these 

thresholds would likely cause significant impacts to local communities. 

Figure A35-1 summarizes total annual employment for the study area between 1990 and 2000. It shows 

that total employment followed an increasing trend (of 16 percent) during this period. The trend analysis 

also shows that the regional economy has experienced cyclical fluctuations in employment. Therefore, 

although total employment increased over time, it is reasonable to assume that in any given year total

employment may deviate by 1 percent above or below the trend (e.g., +1,100 to -1,100 jobs). 

Deviations in total employment, as measured by the historical trend, were used to define the threshold of 

significance for this analysis. Thus if employment impacts due to changes in management associated

with RMPPA do not exceed an increase or decrease of 1 percent of the trend, the impact is not considered

significant. 

The historic trend associated with mineral ad valorem taxes associated with gas production for the study

area is summarized in Figure A35-2. This graph shows the estimated value, in inflation-adjusted dollars,

of ad valorem taxes associated with gas production in the four-county study area. During this time ad

valorem taxes have fluctuated substantially from the trend (e.g., +$29 million to -$27 million) the big 

spike in 2000 deviated from the trend by 29 million. Given the importance of mineral ad valorem taxes to

local government entities, the significance threshold for this variable was set at 15 percent above or below

the trend (e.g. +$4 million to -$4 million). 

Rawlins RMP A35-1 
Appendix 35 Draft EIS 

Figure A35-1. Total Employment Trend 

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Annual Employment

Figure A35-2. Ad Valorem Tax Trend

$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

Annual Tax Revenues (2002$)

A35-2 Rawlins RMP 
Draft EIS Appendix 35 

ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

The following section provides a detailed summary of the economic impact analysis by resources use. 

Modifications of IMPLAN for RMPPA 

The Impact analysis for PLANing (IMPLAN) modeling system is based on national production

coefficients. To better reflect local production practices, the oil and gas and cattle production sectors of

the four-county IMPLAN model for the Rawlins Resource Management Plan (RMP) were modified. The 

IMPLAN sectors associated with recreation were not adjusted because it was felt that these sectors were a 

reasonably accurate representation of the sectors found in the study area. 

In IMPLAN, oil and gas production is separated into three sectors (MIG, 2000): 38—Natural Gas and

Crude Petroleum (production), 39—Natural Gas Liquids (byproducts), and 57—Maintenance and Repair 

of Oil and Gas Wells (oil and gas field services). Employment for these three sectors was estimated from 

Wyoming Department of Employment data on covered employment. These estimates were then adjusted

to account for self-employment based on Wyoming data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. 

Department of Commerce. Labor earnings for the three sectors were also estimated from Wyoming

Department of Employment data. These estimates were then adjusted for self-employment earnings and 

benefits. Benefits were estimated from national data in the Survey of Current Business. 

Total industry output for production was based on the quantities of production data in the Wyoming 

Department of Revenue’s Annual Report, and price forecasts from the Wyoming Consensus Revenue 

Estimating Group (CREG). Total industry output for byproducts was estimated from information on 

county gas plant products from Minerals Management Services. Total industry output for oil and gas 

field services was estimated using output/employment ratios developed from the 1997 Economic Census, 

U.S. Census Bureau. Because of the large price fluctuations in natural gas and oil prices, the economic

impacts of production were estimated based on cost of production rather than total output. 

In IMPLAN, the cattle ranching industry is separated into two sectors: 3—Ranch Feed Cattle, and 4—

Range Feed Cattle. Sheep production is represented by a single sector: 6—Sheep, Lambs, and Goats. For

this analysis, sectors 3 and 4 were combined into a single Cattle Ranching sector. The production 

coefficients for this aggregated cattle ranching sector were then modified based on a University of Idaho 

Cow-Calf Budget. It was felt that this budget was a more accurate reflection of production practices in

the study area. The sheep sector production coefficients were not modified. Because of price 

fluctuations, the 1992–2001 average value of production estimates from the Wyoming Agricultural 

Statistics was used to estimate per animal unit month (AUM) values for both cattle and sheep production. 

The quantity of production was estimated based on Wyoming Agricultural Statistics data on cattle and 

sheep inventories by county. Hay production was also adjusted to reflect current production in the study

area. Finally, regional purchase coefficients were adjusted to reflect current purchasing patterns in the

study area. 

Oil and Gas Exploration And Development 

The economic impact of oil and gas operations was analyzed in two phases: 

• 

• 

Phase I: Exploration and Development 

Phase II: Production 

Rawlins RMP A35-3 
Appendix 35 Draft EIS 

Phase 1 considered how many exploratory and development wells would be drilled under each alternative 

in RMPPA, and what percentage of these wells would by completed, including both conventional wells

and coalbed natural gas development. Table A35-1 summarizes the economic assumptions used in

analyzing the exploration and development phase associated with each alternative. Oil production was 

considered a byproduct of gas production. 

Table A35-1. Economic Assumptions for Gas Exploration and Development 

Coalbed Natural Gas Conventional Wells Impacts/Well 

Shallow Deep Duala Intermediate Dualb Deep

Drilling Cost $100,000 $250,000 $144,313 $500,000 $625,000 $3,000,000

Completion Cost $100,000 $250,000 $144,313 $500,000 $625,000 $3,000,000

Drilling Jobs 1.3 3.2 1.8 6.3 7.9 37.9

Completion Jobs 0.6 1.5 0.9 3.0 3.7 18.0

Drilling Earnings $39,599 $99,220 $57,346 $198,886 $248,496 $1,191,980

Completion

Earning $18,664 $47,329 $27,305 $94,211 $117,876 $565,269

Completion Rate 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0%

Completion

Rate— 

Exploratory 

- - - 90.0% - 90.0%

a

Dual CBNG wells are two wells drilled from the same pad. b

Dual intermediate gas are two wells drilled from the same pad.

Phase II considered the economic impact of producing additional gas reserves as a result of the 

exploration and development under Phase I. Table A35-2 summarizes the economic assumptions used to 

analyze gas and oil production estimated to occur under each alternative. 

Table A35-2. Economic Assumptions for Oil and Gas Production 

Type of Wells Inputs/Impacts Conventional CBNG 

Price/MMCFa $3,250 $3,250

Price/MMBOa $20,500,000 $20,500,000

Labor Earnings $197.52 $197.52 

Employment 0.0052 0.0052 a Prices for natural gas and oil were obtained from the Wyoming State 

Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, October 2003. 

The average price of natural gas and oil used for this analysis was obtained from the Wyoming State

Government Revenue Forecast for 2004 through 2008. The average price forecast for natural gas for

2004 and beyond was estimated at $3.25 thousand cubic feet ($/mcf) and for oil at $20.50 billion barrels 

($/bbl). 

Grazing 

Grazing activities were analyzed under each alternative as follows. First, BLM was contacted concerning

historical grazing use within the RMPPA. The value of grazing AUMs for cattle and sheep was estimated

as summarized in Tables A35-3 and A35-4. 

A35-4 Rawlins RMP 
Draft EIS Appendix 35 

Table A35-3. Estimated Value of Cattle AUMs 

Year 

Value of 

Production

(1,000$s)a

Cows that have

Calved (1,000 

Head)

a

Value Per 

Cow

Conversion to

AUMs

(AUMs/cow)

b

Value of 

Production Per 

AUM Nominal$s 

Value of 

Production Per 

AUM Real (2001$)

1998 $400,637 880 $455.27 16 $28.45 $30.10

1999 $452,058 830 $544.65 16 $34.04 $35.55

2000 $490,707 830 $591.21 16 $36.95 $37.80

2001 $542,823 850 $638.62 16 $39.91 $39.91

2002 $444,815 820 $542.46 16 $33.90 $33.11

5-yr Average $35.29

a Wyoming Agricultural Statistics

b J.P. Workman, Range Economics, McMillan Publishing, Inc., New York, 1986. 

Rawlins RMP A35-5 
Appendix 35 Draft EIS 

Table A35-4. Estimated Value of Sheep AUMs 

Year 

Value of 

Production

(Sheep and

Lambs)

(1,000$)a

Value of Wool

Production

(1,000$)a

Total Value of

Production 

(1,000$) a

Ewes 1 Year 

and Older 

(1,000 Head)a

Value Per Ewe 

Conversion to

AUMs

(AUMs/Ewe)b 

Value of 

Production Per 

AUM Nominal$

Value of 

Production Per 

AUM Real 

2001$s 

1998 $24,493 $4,266 $28,759 430 $66.88 3.2 $20.90 $22.111999 $22,489 $2,416 $24,905 385 $64.69 3.2 $20.22 $21.112000 $23,448 $2,143 $25,591 365 $70.11 3.2 $21.91 $22.422001 $19,155 $2,015 $21,170 340 $62.26 3.2 $19.46 $19.462002 $21,412 $2,738 $24,150 320 $75.47 3.2 $23.58 $23.03

5-yr Average $21.63

a Wyoming Agricultural Statisticsb J.P. Workman, Range Economics, McMillan Publishing, Inc., New York, 1986.

A35-6 Rawlins RMP 
Draft EIS Appendix 35 

The economic analysis used the 5-year average value of AUMs, or $35.29/AUM for cattle and $21.63 for 

sheep, in inflation-adjusted dollars. The value and number of AUMs per alternative were then used in 

combination with the IMPLAN model to estimate economic impacts of grazing under each alternative.

The economic assumptions used to analyze grazing impacts are summarized in Table A35-5. 

Table A35-5. Economic Assumptions for Grazing. 

 

Cattle Grazing

(2001$) 

Sheep Grazing

(2001$) 

Production Value per AUM $35.29 $21.63

Total Economic Impact Per AUM $64.36 $42.36

Earnings Per AUM $18.77 $5.83

Jobs Per AUM 0.000709 0.000951

Recreation 

Recreational impacts were analyzed as follows. The number of recreation visitor days (RVD) was

estimated for each alternative, considering several assumptions. These assumptions are summarized in

Table A35-6. Once the number of RVDs was estimated by activity, the RVDs were separated into 

resident and nonresident use and analyzed separately. Residents were considered as any individual living

in the four-county study area, whereas nonresidents live outside the four-county region. Residents of the

study area associated with big game hunting were determined by evaluating zip codes of hunters that 

applied for licensees from the Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) within the relevant hunting

areas. Residents and nonresidents participating in off-highway vehicle (OHV) and other dispersed use 

were based on observations of BLM staff for this area. 

The economic impact of recreation in the RMPPA considered activities of nonresidents only. Regional 

economic impact modeling (Input/Output models) evaluates the additional economic activity associated

with “new” money brought into an economy, which can occur as goods and services are produced by

local firms and exported to entities outside the region (e.g., agricultural products, oil and gas production). 

In addition new money can come into an economy as visitors come to the area and spend money. I/O 

models estimate the additional economic activity that occurs with new money expenditures. Therefore 

nonresident spending is evaluated when determining the economic impacts of recreation. However this 

does not imply that recreational activities are not important to the quality of life of residents in the area. 

Total annual recreational expenditures of nonresidents were estimated for each alternative using the 

estimated RVDs per activity and the average expenditures per day per activity. Table A35-7 summarizes 

the average expenditures used for each activity. The economic assumptions used to estimate recreational

impacts are summarized in Table A35-8.

Rawlins RMP A35-7 
Appendix 35 Draft EIS 

Table A35-6. Recreation Assumptions. 

Use Type Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Preferred 

Nonconsumptive 

OHV OHV use is estimated to 

increase 1.5% per year during the planning period, based on current trends in OHV use. 

OHV use is expected to increase 3% per year. Increases in OHV use are expected as a result of the creation of the Rawlins OHV SRMA. An increase isalso expected in the number of roads and vehicle routes open to OHV use because of changes in wildlife management restrictions and increased mineral development. 

OHV use is expected to increase only1% per year. Although the Rawlins OHV SRMA is expected to increase OHV use, restrictions in other SRMAs, as well as other wildlife restrictions, would reduce the number of roads and vehicle routes open to OHV use. 

OHV use is estimated to increase 1.5% per year during the planningperiod, based on current trends in OHV use. 

Other Recreational Uses 

Nonconsumptive RVDs are estimated to increase 1.5%per year over the study period, based on current trends. 

Nonconsumptive RVDs are expected to decline 1.5% over the study periodbecause of a reduction in, or substantial changes to, wildlife and fisheries habitat in the RMPPA.

Nonconsumptive RVDs are expected to increase by 2.5% per year over the study period as a result of increasedprotection for wildlife and fisheries resources. 

Nonconsumptive RVDs are estimated to increase 1.5% per year over the study period, based on current trends. 

Consumptive 

Fishing Fishing RVDs are expected 

to increase 2% per year, based on current trends. 

Fishing RVDs are expected to stayconstant at the 5-year historic average. 

Fishing RVDs are expected to increase by 2.5% per year as a result of changes in vegetation management, protection of riparian areas, and protection of wildlife and fish resources. 

Fishing RVDs are expected toincrease by 2% per year, based on current trends 

Elk Elk hunting is expected to 

remain constant at the current 5-yr average for the Rawlins RMPPA. 

Elk hunting is expected to decline 1%per year during the study period as a result of impacts on wildlife fromincreased mineral development, changes in vegetation management, and increased OHV use. 

Elk hunting is expected to increase as a result of changes in vegetation management, protection of riparian areas, and protection of wildlife habitat, resulting in an increase in RVDs of 0.5% per year. 

Elk hunting is expected to remain constant at the current 5-yr average for the Rawlins RMPPA. 

Antelope Antelope hunting is expected 

to remain constant at the current 5-yr average for the Rawlins RMPPA (or increasing a little). 

Antelope hunting is expected to decline 

1% per year during the study period as a result of impacts on wildlife from increased mineral development, changes in vegetation management, and increased OHV use. 

Antelope hunting opportunities are 

expected to increase, resulting in an increase in RVDs by 0.5% per year. 

Antelope hunting is expected to 

remain constant at the current 5-yraverage for the Rawlins RMPPA (or increasing a little). 

Mule and White Tail Deer 

Deer hunting is expected to remain constant at the current 5-yr average or decline slightly for the Rawlins RMPPA. Declines would be caused byincreased occurrences of chronic wasting disease in 

Deer hunting is expected to decline 1% per year during the study period as a result of impacts on wildlife fromincreased mineral development, changes in vegetation management, and increased OHV use. 

Same as Alternative 1. Same as Alternative 1. 

A35-8 Rawlins RMP 
Draft EIS Appendix 35 

Use Type Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Preferred 

the area and loss of sagebrush steppe communities, which hurts winter range availability.

Water Fowl Water fowl hunting is 

expected to remain constant at the current 5-yr average for the Rawlins RMPPA. 

Same as Alternative 1. Same as Alternative 1. Same as Alternative 1. 

Rawlins RMP A35-9 
Appendix 35 Preliminary DEIS

Table A35-7. Summary of Visitor Expenditures. 

Summary of Daily Visitor Expenditures Per Person Per Day

Nonresident OHV Use 119.13a

Nonresident Hunting 116.31b

Nonresident Other Nonconsumptive Uses 33.27c

a Hazen and Sawyer, Economic Contribution of Off-Highway Vehicle Use in Colorado, Prepared 

for the Colorado Off-Highway Vehicle Coalition, Denver, CO, July 2001. 

b Morey & Associates, Inc., Report on the Economic Impact of the Travel Industry in Wyoming— 

1998, prepared for the Wyoming Business Council, Division of Tourism, Cheyenne, WY, 1999. 

c U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, 2001 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated 

Recreation—Wyoming, FHW/01-WY, Rev., 2003.

Table A35-8. Economic Assumptions for Recreation. 

OHV (2001$) Other Nonconsumptive

Uses

Hunting (2001$) 

Direct Expenditures $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000

Jobs Per $1M 27.5 31.9 44.3 

Earnings Per $1 M $413,864 $359,448 $436,798 

LITERATURE CITED

Minnesota IMPLAN Group (MIG), 2000. IMPLAN Professional, Version 2.0, User’s Guide. 

A35-10 Rawlins RMP