August 1, 2014

This workbook combines spreadsheets from the three EPA workbooks used to calculate the state 111(d) goals in 

order to allow the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) to model the effects of various 

assumptions on the interim (2020-2029) and final (2029) lbs CO2/MWh rates for affected EGUs in Arizona.

The first spreadsheet, BB Scenarios, consists of variations of Arizona's row in 20140602tsd-state-goal-datecomputation.xsl and currently includes the following scenarios:

1. EPA's goal calculation. EPA's version has been modified to add columns showing the baseline rate, alternative 

baseline rate and total 2029 EE savings in MWh and to link to the RE and EE calculations in the other 

spreadsheets, rather than just incorporating the RE and EE values.

2. A rate calculation that assumes (a) 15 % RE by 2029, (b) incremental EE savings of 1.61 % per year (the 2012 

savings for Arizona according to EPA) after June 2014 and (c) adjusting redispatch to comply with the final goal of 

702 lbs CO2/MWh. Consistent with the proposal, existing RE is counted in the calculation, but EE savings count 

only if they result from actions taken after the date of proposal. 79 Fed. Reg. 34830, 34918 & n. 293. This rate 

calculation also modifies the formula for determining NGCC redispatch by setting the post-redispatch generation 

equal to 2012 capacity (column J) x post-redispatch CF (column U) x 8784. This modification allows the use of 

Goal Seek to set redispatch generation to the levels that will achieve a particular final or interim rate-based goal 

3. Same as 2, except 21 % RE by 2029 is assumed.

4. Same as 3, except 33% RE by 2029 and incremental EE savings of 2 % per year are assumed. 

5. Same as 4, except redispatch is adjusted to achieve the interim goal of 735 lbs CO2/MWh, rather than the final 

For each scenario, column O shows the level of coal generation in 2020 that would be consistent with the other 

The RE spreadsheet (blue tab) includes EPA's original calculation for Arizona plus the alternative calculations 

used in the scenarios. Each EE alternative has its own spreadsheet (green tabs). The RefTables spreadsheet 

provides some of the values needed by the EE calculations.

These scenarios have been modeled solely for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect ADEQ's determination 

that any of the scenarios represents a cost-effective or feasible approach to compliance. 
Source: 20140602tsd-state-goal-data-computation.xls

Scenario

Coal Rate 

(lb/MWh)

NGCC Rate 

(lb/MWh)

O/G rate 

(lb/MWh)

1. EPA Goal Calculation 2,268 900 1,563

2. 15 % RE and 1.61 % Incremental EE Savings 2,268 900 1,563

3. 21 % RE and 1.61 % Incremental EE Savings 2,268 900 1,563

4. 33 % RE and 2.00 % Incremental EE Savings 2,268 900 1,563

5. 33 % RE and 2.00 % Incremental EE Savings 2,268 900 1,563
Other 

Emissions (lbs)

Hist Coal Gen 

(MWh)

Hist NGCC 

Gen. (MWh)

Historic OG 

steam Gen. 

(MWh)

Other Gen. 

(MWh)

NGCC 

Capacity 

(MW )

Under 

Construction 

NGCC Capacity 

(MW)

17,227,768 24,335,930 26,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0

17,227,768 24,335,930 26,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0

17,227,768 24,335,930 26,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0

17,227,768 24,335,930 26,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0

17,227,768 24,335,930 26,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0

Step 1 (2012 Data for Fossil Sources)
Step 2 (HRI)

Baseline Rate 

(lbs/MWh)

Adjusted 

Baseline Rate 

with At-Risk 

Nuclear + 

2012 RE 

(lbs/MWh)

Adj. Coal Rate 

(lbs/MWh)

Redispatched 

Coal Gen. (MWh)

Redispatch O/G 

steam Gen. 

(MWh)

Redispatched 

NGCC Gen. 

(MWh)

1,551 1,453 2,132 0 0 52,152,127

1,551 1,453 2,132 6,532,308 277,514 45,342,304

1,551 1,453 2,132 9,707,767 412,418 42,031,941

1,551 1,453 2,132 17,289,394 734,511 34,128,222

1,551 1,453 2,132 9,476,915 402,611 42,272,601

Step 3a & 3b (Redispatch)
Step 4a Nuclear

Other 

Emissions (lbs)

Other Gen. 

(MWh)

2012 NGCC 

Capacity 

Factor*

Post 

Redispatch 

Assumed NGCC 

Capacity Factor 

for Existing 

Fleet

Nuclear 

Generation 

Under 

Construction and 

"At Risk" (MWh)

2020 Existing 

and 

Incremental 

RE

17,227,768 19,361 27% 53% 1,818,486 2,150,930

17,227,768 19,361 27% 46% 1,818,486 4,620,540

17,227,768 19,361 27% 43% 1,818,486 5,413,260

17,227,768 19,361 27% 35% 1,818,486 6,696,268

17,227,768 19,361 27% 43% 1,818,486 6,696,268

Step 3a & 3b (Redispatch)
2021 Existing 

and 

Incremental 

RE

2022 Existing 

and 

Incremental 

RE

2023 Existing 

and 

Incremental 

RE

2024 Existing 

and 

Incremental 

RE

2025 Existing 

and 

Incremental 

RE

2026 Existing 

and 

Incremental 

RE

2027 Existing 

and 

Incremental 

RE

2,282,026 2,421,112 2,568,676 2,725,233 2,891,333 3,067,555 3,254,519

5,236,586 5,934,768 6,726,037 7,622,804 8,639,135 9,790,970 11,096,378

6,257,634 7,233,716 8,362,049 9,666,382 11,174,168 12,917,143 14,931,992

7,949,336 9,436,889 11,202,807 13,299,180 15,787,846 18,742,214 22,249,431

7,949,336 9,436,889 11,202,807 13,299,180 15,787,846 18,742,214 22,249,431

Step 4b Renewable (MWh)
2028 Existing 

and 

Incremental RE

2029 Existing 

and 

Incremental RE

2020 EE 

Potential

2021 EE 

Potential

2022 EE 

Potential

2023 EE 

Potential

2024 EE 

Potential

3,452,877 3,663,325 5.24% 6.28% 7.22% 8.07% 8.83%

12,575,832 14,252,539 8.18% 9.04% 9.80% 10.47% 11.06%

17,261,121 19,953,554 8.18% 9.04% 9.80% 10.47% 11.06%

26,412,950 31,355,586 10.06% 11.09% 12.01% 12.81% 13.51%

26,412,950 31,355,586 10.06% 11.09% 12.01% 12.81% 13.51%

Step 5 (Demand Side EE - % of avo
2025 EE 

Potential

2026 EE 

Potential

2027 EE 

Potential

2028 EE 

Potential

2029 EE 

Potential 

(%)

State 

Generation 

as % of sales

2012 Total 

MWh (sales 

x 1.0751)

2029 Total 

EE Savings 

(MWh)

9.50% 10.10% 10.61% 11.05% 11.42% 142.51% 80,700,600 9,215,884

11.56% 11.99% 12.34% 12.63% 12.84% 142.51% 80,700,601 10,361,084

11.56% 11.99% 12.34% 12.63% 12.84% 142.51% 80,700,602 10,361,084

14.11% 14.61% 15.02% 15.34% 15.58% 142.51% 80,700,602 12,570,619

14.11% 14.61% 15.02% 15.34% 15.58% 142.51% 80,700,603 12,570,619

Step 5 (Demand Side EE - % of avoided MWh sales)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

778 765 754 744 735 727 720 713

846 830 813 798 782 767 751 735

897 876 856 836 815 794 773 750

999 970 940 910 879 847 813 778

856 831 805 780 753 726 697 667

Step 6&7 (State Goal Phase I & II (lbs/MWh))
2028 2029

Interim Goal 

or Rate (2020 

- 2029 

average)

Final Goal or 

Rate (2030 

and 

thereafter)

707 702 735 702

719 702 774 702

727 702 803 702

741 702 858 702

635 601 735 601
Alternative

Effective 

RE Level 

(%)

Assigned 

Region

Regional RE 

Generation 

Target (%)

 State RE 

Generation 

Target 

(MWh) 

 Calculate 

Regional RE 

Target (MWh) 

EPA Goal 10% West 21% 19,597,241 146,877,467

15 % RE in 2029 10% West 21% 19,597,241 146,877,467

21 % RE in 2029 10% West 21% 19,597,241 146,877,467

33 % RE in 2029 10% West 21% 19,597,241 146,877,467

Source: 20140602tsd-proposed-re-approach.xls
 Calculate 

2012 

Regional RE 

Calculate 

Annual 

Growth 

Factor

Adjusted 2012 

Total 

Generation 

without IC Fossil

 2012

RE

(MWh) 

2013 2014 2015

68,065,726 6% 95,016,925 1,697,652

68,065,726 13% 95,016,925 1,697,652 1,923,997 2,180,519 2,471,242

68,065,726 16% 95,016,925 1,697,652 1,962,457 2,268,565 2,622,422

68,065,726 19% 95,016,926 1,697,652 2,015,333 2,392,461 2,840,160
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

 1,801,122 1,910,898 2,027,365 2,150,930 2,282,026 2,421,112 2,568,676

 2,800,727 3,174,141 3,597,342 4,076,968 4,620,540 5,236,586 5,934,768 6,726,037

 3,031,474 3,504,331 4,050,945 4,682,822 5,413,260 6,257,634 7,233,716 8,362,049

 3,371,637 4,002,569 4,751,567 5,640,724 6,696,268 7,949,336 9,436,889 11,202,807
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

 Interim 

(2020-2029) 

 2,725,233 2,891,333 3,067,555 3,254,519 3,452,877 3,663,325 2,847,759

 7,622,804 8,639,135 9,790,970 11,096,378 12,575,832 14,252,539 8,649,559

 9,666,382 11,174,168 12,917,143 14,931,992 17,261,121 19,953,554 11,317,102

13,299,180 15,787,846 18,742,214 22,249,431 26,412,950 31,355,586 16,313,251
 Final 

(2030) 

Final as % of 

Adjusted 

2012 Total 

Generation

 3,663,325 3.86%

14,252,539 15.00%

19,953,554 21.00%

31,355,586 33.00%
EE Goal

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh 1,211

Maintain historical savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

Total annual savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

Sales

Annual average growth rate % 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

BAU sales GWh 76,275 77,268 78,274 79,294 80,326 81,372 82,432 83,506

Sales after Net EE GWh 75,063 77,268 78,274 79,294 80,326 80,168 80,088 80,087

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % 1.61% 1.57% 1.55% 1.53% 1.51% 1.51% 1.51%

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh 0 0 0 0 1,205 1,203 1,201

Expiring savings GWh 0 0 0 0 0 63 127

Net cumulative savings GWh 0 0 0 0 1,205 2,344 3,419

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.48% 2.84% 4.09%

0900006481889685 Page 1 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE Goal

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

84,593 85,695 86,811 87,942 89,087 90,247 91,423 92,613

80,163 80,316 80,544 80,846 81,222 81,671 82,193 82,786

1.51% 1.51% 1.51% 1.50% 1.50% 1.49% 1.48% 1.47%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,201 1,202 1,205 1,208 1,213 1,218 1,225 1,233

190 253 316 380 443 507 571 636

4,430 5,379 6,268 7,096 7,865 8,576 9,230 9,827

5.24% 6.28% 7.22% 8.07% 8.83% 9.50% 10.10% 10.61%

0900006481889685 Page 2 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE Goal

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2028 2029 2030

1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

93,820 95,041 96,279

83,452 84,188 84,995

1.46% 1.45% 1.44%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,242 1,252 1,263

701 766 832

10,368 10,854 11,284

11.05% 11.42% 11.72%

0900006481889685 Page 3 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE Goal

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

97,533 98,803 100,090 101,394 102,714 104,052 105,407 106,780

85,872 86,820 87,838 88,926 90,084 91,312 92,546 93,789

1.42% 1.41% 1.40% 1.38% 1.36% 1.34% 1.33% 1.31%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,275 1,288 1,302 1,318 1,334 1,351 1,370 1,388

898 966 1,033 1,102 1,171 1,241 1,249 1,258

11,661 11,983 12,252 12,468 12,631 12,740 12,861 12,991

11.96% 12.13% 12.24% 12.30% 12.30% 12.24% 12.20% 12.17%

0900006481889685 Page 4 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE Goal

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35%

108,171 109,579 111,061 112,563 114,084 115,627 117,190 118,775

95,040 96,302 97,629 98,970 100,323 101,692 103,076 104,476

1.29% 1.27% 1.26% 1.24% 1.22% 1.21% 1.19% 1.18%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,407 1,426 1,445 1,464 1,485 1,505 1,525 1,546

1,268 1,279 1,290 1,303 1,316 1,331 1,346 1,362

13,130 13,277 13,431 13,593 13,761 13,935 14,115 14,299

12.14% 12.12% 12.09% 12.08% 12.06% 12.05% 12.04% 12.04%

0900006481889685 Page 5 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE Goal

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2047 2048 2049 2050

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35%

120,381 122,008 123,658 125,330

105,893 107,327 108,780 110,251

1.16% 1.14% 1.13% 1.11%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,567 1,588 1,610 1,632

1,378 1,395 1,413 1,431

14,488 14,681 14,878 15,079

12.04% 12.03% 12.03% 12.03%

0900006481889685 Page 6 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 1.61

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh 1,211

Maintain historical savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

Total annual savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

Sales

Annual average growth rate % 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

BAU sales GWh 76,275 77,268 78,274 79,294 80,326 81,372 82,432 83,506

Sales after Net EE GWh 75,063 77,268 77,652 77,454 77,338 77,304 77,348 77,472

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % 1.61% 1.57% 1.56% 1.56% 1.57% 1.57% 1.57%

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales % 0.00% 0.81% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61%

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh 0 622 1,250 1,247 1,245 1,245 1,245

Expiring savings GWh 0 0 33 99 164 230 295

Net cumulative savings GWh 0 622 1,839 2,988 4,069 5,084 6,034

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % 0.00% 0.00% 0.79% 2.32% 3.72% 5.00% 6.17% 7.23%

0900006481889685 Page 1 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 1.61

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

84,593 85,695 86,811 87,942 89,087 90,247 91,423 92,613

77,673 77,951 78,304 78,732 79,234 79,810 80,459 81,181

1.56% 1.56% 1.55% 1.55% 1.54% 1.53% 1.52% 1.51%

1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61%

1,247 1,251 1,255 1,261 1,268 1,276 1,285 1,295

361 426 492 558 625 691 758 826

6,920 7,745 8,507 9,210 9,853 10,437 10,964 11,433

8.18% 9.04% 9.80% 10.47% 11.06% 11.56% 11.99% 12.34%

0900006481889685 Page 2 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 1.61

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2028 2029 2030

1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

93,820 95,041 96,279

81,974 82,839 83,867

1.49% 1.48% 1.46%

1.61% 1.61% 1.50%

1,307 1,320 1,243

894 963 1,033

11,846 12,202 12,412

12.63% 12.84% 12.89%

0900006481889685 Page 3 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 1.61

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

97,533 98,803 100,090 101,394 102,714 104,052 105,407 106,780

84,961 86,121 87,347 88,607 89,868 91,131 92,399 93,672

1.44% 1.43% 1.41% 1.39% 1.37% 1.35% 1.33% 1.31%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,258 1,274 1,292 1,310 1,329 1,348 1,367 1,386

1,098 1,164 1,231 1,266 1,270 1,274 1,279 1,286

12,572 12,683 12,743 12,787 12,846 12,921 13,008 13,108

12.89% 12.84% 12.73% 12.61% 12.51% 12.42% 12.34% 12.28%

0900006481889685 Page 4 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 1.61

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35%

108,171 109,579 111,061 112,563 114,084 115,627 117,190 118,775

94,950 96,236 97,585 98,944 100,313 101,693 103,086 104,491

1.29% 1.28% 1.26% 1.24% 1.22% 1.21% 1.19% 1.17%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,405 1,424 1,444 1,464 1,484 1,505 1,525 1,546

1,293 1,302 1,311 1,321 1,331 1,343 1,355 1,367

13,220 13,343 13,476 13,619 13,772 13,934 14,105 14,283

12.22% 12.18% 12.13% 12.10% 12.07% 12.05% 12.04% 12.03%

0900006481889685 Page 5 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 1.61

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2047 2048 2049 2050

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35%

120,381 122,008 123,658 125,330

105,910 107,344 108,792 110,259

1.16% 1.14% 1.13% 1.11%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,567 1,589 1,610 1,632

1,381 1,394 1,408 1,428

14,470 14,665 14,866 15,070

12.02% 12.02% 12.02% 12.02%

0900006481889685 Page 6 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 2.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh 1,211

Maintain historical savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

Total annual savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

Sales

Annual average growth rate % 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

BAU sales GWh 76,275 77,268 78,274 79,294 80,326 81,372 82,432 83,506

Sales after Net EE GWh 75,063 77,268 77,502 77,012 76,626 76,343 76,160 76,075

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % 1.61% 1.57% 1.56% 1.57% 1.58% 1.59% 1.59%

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales % 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh 0 773 1,550 1,540 1,533 1,527 1,523

Expiring savings GWh 0 0 41 122 203 284 364

Net cumulative savings GWh 0 773 2,282 3,700 5,029 6,272 7,431

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % 0.00% 0.00% 0.99% 2.88% 4.61% 6.18% 7.61% 8.90%

0900006481889685 Page 1 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 2.00

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

84,593 85,695 86,811 87,942 89,087 90,247 91,423 92,613

76,085 76,190 76,387 76,675 77,052 77,517 78,069 78,707

1.59% 1.59% 1.59% 1.59% 1.58% 1.57% 1.56% 1.55%

2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

1,521 1,522 1,524 1,528 1,533 1,541 1,550 1,561

445 525 605 685 765 846 927 1,009

8,508 9,505 10,424 11,267 12,035 12,730 13,354 13,906

10.06% 11.09% 12.01% 12.81% 13.51% 14.11% 14.61% 15.02%

0900006481889685 Page 2 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 2.00

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2028 2029 2030

1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

93,820 95,041 96,279

79,430 80,237 81,529

1.54% 1.52% 1.51%

2.00% 2.00% 1.50%

1,574 1,589 1,204

1,091 1,174 1,257

14,390 14,804 14,751

15.34% 15.58% 15.32%

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EE 2.00

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%

97,533 98,803 100,090 101,394 102,714 104,052 105,407 106,780

82,880 84,292 85,765 87,259 88,733 90,190 91,632 93,061

1.49% 1.46% 1.44% 1.41% 1.39% 1.36% 1.34% 1.32%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,223 1,243 1,264 1,286 1,309 1,331 1,353 1,374

1,321 1,385 1,450 1,476 1,462 1,450 1,440 1,431

14,653 14,511 14,325 14,135 13,982 13,862 13,775 13,719

15.02% 14.69% 14.31% 13.94% 13.61% 13.32% 13.07% 12.85%

0900006481889685 Page 4 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 2.00

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35%

108,171 109,579 111,061 112,563 114,084 115,627 117,190 118,775

94,478 95,886 97,340 98,787 100,230 101,669 103,105 104,539

1.30% 1.28% 1.26% 1.24% 1.23% 1.21% 1.19% 1.17%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,396 1,417 1,438 1,460 1,482 1,503 1,525 1,547

1,423 1,416 1,411 1,406 1,403 1,400 1,398 1,397

13,693 13,694 13,721 13,775 13,855 13,958 14,085 14,235

12.66% 12.50% 12.35% 12.24% 12.14% 12.07% 12.02% 11.99%

0900006481889685 Page 5 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
EE 2.00

Annual Incremental Baseline Savings

Historical annual incremental savings GWh

Maintain historical savings GWh

Total annual savings GWh

Sales

Annual average growth rate %

BAU sales GWh

Sales after Net EE GWh

Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales

Historical savings as percent of previous year sales %

Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %

Savings and Sales Re-calculation

Annual incremental savings GWh

Expiring savings GWh

Net cumulative savings GWh

Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE %

2047 2048 2049 2050

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35%

120,381 122,008 123,658 125,330

105,973 107,406 108,840 110,297

1.16% 1.14% 1.13% 1.11%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,568 1,590 1,611 1,633

1,396 1,395 1,395 1,417

14,408 14,602 14,818 15,033

11.97% 11.97% 11.98% 12.00%

0900006481889685 Page 6 of 6 8:34 PM 10/4/2014
Source: 20140602tsd-ghg-abatement-measures-scenario1.xls

EMM Regions and Growth Rate Data

Source: AEO2013 Reference Case. Tables 73-95.

State Abbrev. EMM Region

AAGR (2012-

2040)

AAGR (2035-

2040)

Alabama AL SRSE 1.03% 1.01%

Alaska AK USA 0.78% 0.83%

Arizona AZ AZNM 1.30% 1.35%

Arkansas AR SRDA 0.86% 0.89%

California CA CAMX 0.89% 0.90%

Colorado CO RMPA 1.22% 1.19%

Connecticut CT NEWE 0.22% 0.22%

District of Columbia DC RFCE 0.51% 0.54%

Delaware DE RFCE 0.51% 0.54%

Florida FL FRCC 1.19% 1.32%

Georgia GA SRSE 1.03% 1.01%

Hawaii HI USA 0.78% 0.83%

Idaho ID NWPP 0.97% 0.89%

Illinois IL RFCW 0.41% 0.49%

Indiana IN RFCW 0.41% 0.49%

Iowa IA MROW 0.54% 0.74%

Kansas KS SPNO 0.59% 0.87%

Kentucky KY SRCE 0.88% 0.77%

Louisiana LA SRDA 0.86% 0.89%

Maine ME NEWE 0.22% 0.22%

Maryland MD RFCE 0.51% 0.54%

Massachusetts MA NEWE 0.22% 0.22%

Michigan MI RFCM 0.33% 0.47%

Minnesota MN MROW 0.54% 0.74%

Mississippi MS SRDA 0.86% 0.89%

Missouri MO SRGW 0.47% 0.73%

Montana MT NWPP 0.97% 0.89%

Nebraska NE MROW 0.54% 0.74%

Nevada NV NWPP 0.97% 0.89%

New Hampshire NH NEWE 0.22% 0.22%

New Jersey NJ RFCE 0.51% 0.54%

New Mexico NM AZNM 1.30% 1.35%

New York NY NYCW 0.23% 0.21%

North Carolina NC SRVC 1.10% 1.12%

North Dakota ND MROW 0.54% 0.74%

Ohio OH RFCW 0.41% 0.49%

Oklahoma OK SPSO 0.88% 0.94%

Oregon OR NWPP 0.97% 0.89%

Pennsylvania PA RFCE 0.51% 0.54%
Rhode Island RI NEWE 0.22% 0.22%

South Carolina SC SRVC 1.10% 1.12%

South Dakota SD MROW 0.54% 0.74%

Tennessee TN SRCE 0.88% 0.77%

Texas TX ERCT 0.89% 0.97%

Utah UT NWPP 0.97% 0.89%

Vermont VT NEWE 0.22% 0.22%

Virginia VA SRVC 1.10% 1.12%

Washington WA NWPP 0.97% 0.89%

West Virginia WV RFCW 0.41% 0.49%

Wisconsin WI MROE 0.35% 0.45%

Wyoming WY NWPP 0.97% 0.89%

Measure Decay Schedule

This table calculates the schedule for measure decay. A linear decay trend twice the an average measure life of 10 years 

Year Year Year Year Year Year

46 45 44 43 42 41

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Goal level (first-year savings as a percent of sales)

Assumption

Goal level 1.50%

Ramp rate (% achieved per year)

Assumption

Ramp rate 0.20%

age measure life of 10 years is assumed below.

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

40 39 38 37 36 35 34

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

33 32 31 30 29 28 27

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

26 25 24 23 22 21 20

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

19 18 17 16 15 14 13

5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

0% 5% 11% 16% 21% 26% 32%

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

12 11 10987654

5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

37% 42% 47% 53% 58% 63% 68% 74% 79%

Year Year Year Year 3 2 1 0

5% 5% 5% 0%

84% 89% 95% 100%