Market Segmentation Analysis of 

Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks 

with a Fuel Cell Emphasis 

Chad Hunter, Michael Penev

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

May 1, 2019

DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 

2019 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting

This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information.

Project ID SA169
NREL | 2

Overview: 

Fuel Cell M/HD Vehicle Market Segmentation

Timeline Barriers (4.5)

Start: September, 2017

End: September, 2019

70% complete

A. Future Market Behavior

• Assessing competitiveness of fuel cell M/HDVs

C. Inconsistent Data, Assumptions & Guidelines

• Consistent modeling methodology using established DOE 

cost/price and performance targets

D. Insufficient Suite of Models and Tools

• Expand spatial and temporal analysis tools to M/HDV sector

Budget Partners

Total Project Funding: $350k

• FY18: $250k

• FY19: $100k

Total DOE funds received to 

date: $350k

Modeling

University of Vanderbilt - Dr. Yuche Chen

External Peer Reviewers (alphabetical)

Bosch, California Air Resources Board (CARB), 

Center for Transportation and the Environment 

(CTE), Cummins, Eaton, Energy Independence 

Now (EIN), FedEx, Toyota
NREL | 3

Relevance (1/2): 

FCTO Systems Analysis Framework

Fuel Cell M/HDV Market Segmentation 

Integrates System Analysis Framework: 

• Leveraging and expanding existing 

systems analysis models 

• Systems analysis approach using DOE 

cost and performance targets

Analysis 

Framework • Cost estimation (TCO)

• Stock modeling

• Energy resource 

utilization

• H2 infrastructure 

financial analysis

Models & Tools

• FASTSim

• SERA

• H2A

• H2FAST

• HDRSAM

Studies & 

Analysis • Fuel cell M/HDV 

market analysis

• Framework 

implementation

Outputs & 

Deliverables

• Reports

• Online TCO Tool

• Public insights into 

market potential

• FCTO Program Targets

• VTO Program Targets

• H2@Scale

• VTO/BETO/FCTO 

Market Segmentation

• TCO Frameworks 

• Fuel Cell 

Technologies Office

• Industry players

• Fuel cell vehicle 

analysis community

Acronyms

FASTSim: Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator 

H2A: Hydrogen Analysis 

H2FAST: Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool

M/HDV: Medium/Heavy-Duty Vehicles

SERA: Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis

TCO: Total Cost of Ownership
NREL | 4

Relevance (2/2):

FCEV Market Segmentation Objectives

Project Objectives:

1. To provide industry, government, and non-government 

stakeholders a broad scoping assessment of medium/heavy 

duty fuel cell vehicle market opportunities across different 

classes, vocations, regions, and time

2. Assess technical barriers and opportunities for improvement in 

the medium/heavy duty fuel cell vehicle technology space to 

guide DOE investment in advanced technologies (MYRDD 

Milestone 1.16, 1.17)
NREL | 5

Approach (1/3): 

Analysis Approach Overview

Regional TCO analyzed using established models and OEM specifications

Vehicle Powertrain 

Cost Modeling

Total Cost of 

Ownership Modeling Market Assessment

Inputs: 

• Cost data

– Vehicle MSRP (FASTSim)

– Regional fuel prices

– Operating & Maintenance cost

– Payload opportunity cost

– Dwell (refueling) time cost

• Vehicle data

– Miles travelled, lifetime

– Fuel economy, weight

• Financial data (discount rate)

Outputs: 

• Total cost of ownership

Inputs: 

• Vehicle attribute data

• Drive cycle data

• Powertrain technology cost 

and performance data

Constraints: 

• Powertrains meet target 

acceleration and gradeability

Outputs: 

• Vehicle fuel economy, weight

• Component costs & MSRP

Impact on FCTO Barriers: 

• Identify key drivers to fuel 

cell truck competitiveness

• Assess fuel cells for 

commercial applications

Integration with Other 

Projects: 

• Coordinated with 

VTO/FCTO/BETO total cost of 

ownership analysis (ongoing)

• Potentially provide results to 

future H2@Scale analysis
NREL | 6

Target year 2018 2020 Ultimate

Batteries

Battery Cell Mass [kg/kWh] 4.8 4.2 2.5

BEV Battery Cell Cost [$/kWh] 145 145 80

Power Electronics

Power electronics & motor (no boost) [$/kW] 22.0 17.0 4.0

Boost Converter [$/kW] 8.5 8.0 2.0

Fuel Cell

Fuel cell specific power (kW/kg) 1.12 1.12 1.12

Fuel cell cost ($/kW) 205 40 30

Fuel peak efficiency (%) 61% 61% 61%

Fuel storage

Hydrogen storage (kWh/kg) 1.4 1.5 2.2

Hydrogen tank cost ($/kWh) 36.7 10.0 8.0

Tech Targets

Approach (2/3): 

FASTSim used for powertrain optimization

NREL’s Fleet 

DNA database 

used for drive 

cycle data

Drive Cycle

Data

Performance 

and 

Cost Data

Results (by tech status and powertrain):

• Output: Fuel economy, weight, costs, MSRP

• Status: Current (2018), Tech Targets (2020, ultimate)

• Powertrains: Diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), 

hybrid-electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), 

battery electric (BEV), fuel cell electric (FCEV)

Sample of Current and DOE Target 

Performance and Cost Data

FASTSim sizes 

powertrain 

components 

to match 

acceleration 

observed in 

the duty cycle

FASTSim models vehicle fuel economy, 

weight, and cost for each year and 

powertrain for direct comparison
NREL | 7

Approach (3/3): 

Total cost of ownership modeling in SERA

Vehicle Price

FASTSim

Fuel Price

AEO Outlook, EPRI, Tesla, 

HDRSAM, FCTO Targets

O&M Cost

Literature survey, fuel-cell 

bus evaluations

Payload Opportunity Cost

LTL Carrier Rates, National 

Research Council, VIUS data

Dwell* Time Cost

ATRI, FMCSA, OOIDA, Nikola, 

Tesla

Discount Rate

US Market Data

Cost Data

Fuel Economy & Weight

FASTSim

Vehicle Miles Traveled

Transportation Energy Data 

Book, Fleet DNA

Lifetime

Transportation Energy Data 

Book, Industry Feedback

Financial Data Vehicle Data

Results:

• Total cost of ownership by 

region, technology status (2018, 

2020, Ultimate) and Powertrain 

(Diesel, HEV, CNG, PHEV, EV, FC)

• Each data source has a 

low/med/high estimate

• Sensitivity analysis around 

low/mid/high cost estimates

Total Cost of Ownership calculated for all Low/Med/High 

estimates of all input vehicle data and cost data

*Dwell time = down time for refueling/recharging

Emissions benefits were not included in TCO framework but could be added in future analyses
NREL | 8

Accomplishments and Progress (1/9): 

Vehicle modeling and benchmarking

Vehicle Modeling Progress Since 2018 AMR

1. Focused on Class 4 Parcel Delivery and 

Class 8 Short/Long Haul (FY18)

2. Added plug-in hybrid (PHEV)

3. Added Current (2018) Tech Status

4. Completed FASTSim modeling

5. Benchmarked with Toyota, Hyundai, and 

Nikola data and Autonomie model

Vehicle Class Vocation

Class 4 Parcel Delivery

Class 5 Van, Basic Enclosed

Class 6 Parcel Delivery

Class 7 Truck Tractor

Class 8 Transit Bus

Class 8 Refuse, Garbage Pickup

Class 8 Short Haul

Class 8 Long Haul

Vocations with large share of fuel consumption in each Class per VIUS

There is a large spread in 

reported/projected FCET fuel 

economy and tractor weights. 

FASTSim estimates are within 

the spread reported

FY18

FY18

FY19

Nikola One (reported)

Nikola One (FASTSim)

FASTSim

(2018, 2020, 

Ultimate) Autonomie

Hyundai

Nikola Two (reported)

FASTSim (2018, 2020, Ultimate)
NREL | 9

Accomplishments and Progress (2/9): 

Class 8 Long Haul Vehicle MSRP Modeling

Class 8 Long 

Haul FCEV 

MSRP 

driven by 

H2 storage 

and H2 

Stack

• Powertrain components sized to meet acceleration needs (0-60 mph, 45 sec)

• Fuel economy based on representative duty cycle from Fleet DNA

• Class 8 Long Haul required range of 1200 miles between refueling/recharging

• PHEV not modeled for Class 8 Long Haul based on industry feedback

Class 8 Short Haul and Class 4 Parcel Delivery results are in back-up

Note: 

Fuel Converter = 

Engine or Fuel Cell

CNG Diesel EV FCEV HEV CNG Diesel EV FCEV HEV CNG Diesel EV FCEV HEV
NREL | 10

Accomplishments and Progress (3/9): 

Class 8 Long Haul Vehicle Modeling

Fuel cell trucks show lower 

total mass than battery trucks 

due to large battery needed

Vehicle Weight and Payload Analysis

• Theoretical sweep across required range 

(distance traveled on single 

refueling/charge) completed

• Tractor mass increases due to larger H2 

storage and battery needed

Fuel Cell Powertrain (2020 Tech Targets) Battery Powertrain (2020 Tech Targets)

Available payload 

weight reduced due 

to heavier tractor
NREL | 11

Accomplishments and Progress (4/9): 

Total Cost of Ownership Scenario Definition

Scenario analysis defined since AMR 2018. Scenarios designed to 

reflect typical industry business operating scenarios

Operating Shift (Single vs Multi)

Single Shift, 

Volume 

Limited

Multi-Shift, 

Volume 

Limited

Single Shift, 

Weight 

Limited

Multi-Shift, 

Weight 

Limited

Payload Limitation (Vol vs Wt

)

Focus of the Class 8 Long Haul results 

in this presentation
NREL | 12

Accomplishments and Progress (5/9): 

Total Cost of Ownership Scenario Analysis

TCO result in Pacific region. 

FCET costs driven by fuel 

($7/gge H2 in this scenario) and 

Payload Opportunity Cost

Scenario Parameters

• Class 8 Long Haul in Pacific Region

• 100,000 mi/yr, 10 year life

• Payload Cost = High, Dwell Cost = None

• Fuel, O&M Costs = Mid

• Discount Rate = 7%

Payload opportunity cost is the lost 

revenue from being not able to load 

as much cargo as a diesel tractor

CNG Diesel EV FCEV HEV CNG Diesel EV FCEV HEV CNG Diesel EV FCEV HEV

Fuel

O&M

Payload

Dwell

MSRP
NREL | 13

Accomplishments and Progress (6/9): 

FCEV Total Cost of Ownership Sensitivity Analysis

Large uncertainty 

in TCO for each 

powertrain 

indicates economic 

competitiveness 

depending on how 

scenarios are 

defined

Sensitivity Variable Units Low Mid High

Fuel $/gge 4 7 10

O&M $/mi 0.06 0.15 0.35

Payload $/lb-mi 0 0.00009 0.00018

Dwell $/refueling 0 12.5 25

Range mi 1100 1200 1300

VMT mi/yr 90,000 100,000 110,000

Lifetime yr 5 10 15

Discount Rate % 4 7 10

Change in TCO ($/mi relative to $1.7/mi)

2018 Class 8 Long Haul FCEV Sensitivity Analysis

Error bars set 

by min/max 

cost across 

Payload, Fuel, 

Dwell, O&M 

parameters

Scenario Parameters

• Class 8 Long Haul in Pacific Region

• 100,000 mi/yr, 10 year life

• Discount Rate = 7%

CNG Diesel EV FCEV HEV

Lifetime

Payload

Fuel

O&M

Discount

Range

Dwell

-0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75

Fuel

O&M

Payload

Dwell

MSRP
NREL | 14

Accomplishments and Progress (7/9): 

Total Cost of Ownership Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity 

analysis on 

FCEV Class 8 

Long Haul 

shows 

pathway to 

TCO parity 

with Diesel 

Technology

Key cost components for 

FCEV Class 8 Long Haul

Scenario Parameters

• Class 8 Long Haul

• Pacific Region

• 2018 Technology

• 100,000 mi/yr

• 10 year life

• Discount Rate = 7%

Today’s 

technology 

cost with 

highest cost 

assumptions 

on Fuel, 

O&M, 

Payload, and 

Dwell Costs
NREL | 15

Accomplishments and Progress (8/9): 

Total Cost of Ownership Online Tool

Online Tool prototype built for users to explore their 

own scenarios and parameter combinations. Final tool 

will be published with report

Select Vehicle 

and Region

Select VMT, Lifetime, Discount 

Rate, Low/Med/High costs for each 

parameter (Fuel, O&M, Payload, 

Dwell) for each powertrain

Output: TCO bar charts
NREL | 16

Accomplishments and Progress (9/9)

Responses to Reviewers’ Comments

Include Current Tech Status: The team should include today’s costs in addition to evaluating 

future technical cost and performance targets. 

Great suggestion and we have incorporated this into our analysis.

Include PHEV: The team should include plug-in hybrid (PHEV) technology in addition to the 

existing powertrain technologies (Diesel, hybrid, CNG, Battery, Fuel Cell) in this analysis.

We have incorporated PHEV technology in our Class 4 Parcel Delivery vehicle analysis. After 

discussing with industry stakeholders, PHEV is not a likely candidate for Class 8 Short and Long 

Haul so it was not included there. The vehicles/vocations evaluated in FY19 are expected to 

include PHEV. 

Use Autonomie and/or Validate Against It: The team should consider using Autonomie rather 

than FASTSim or benchmark against it. 

Autonomie and FASTSim are both peer-reviewed, industry-used models for vehicle modeling. 

FASTSim was primarily used in this analysis to be consistent with a parallel, ongoing multi-EERE 

office (VTO/FCTO/BETO) project. A benchmarking analysis was completed. 

Sensitivity Analysis: The team should complete a sensitivity analysis as discussed by the 

presenter but not clear from the slides.

Sensitivity analysis has been completed as detailed in FY18. Additionally, a online tool is 

expected to be published with the report to allow users to explore the uncertainty by creating 

their own “what-if” scenarios. 
NREL | 17

Collaboration and Coordination

Modeling

• Vanderbilt University

– Dr. Yuche Chen supported vehicle stock model development and operating 

and maintenance data review

External Peer Reviewers (Thank You!)

• Bosch

• California Air Resources Board (CARB)

• Center for Transportation and the Environment (CTE)

• Cummins

• Eaton

• Energy Independence Now (EIN)

• FedEx

• Toyota

The mix of industry, state 

agency, and non-profit 

organizations has been very 

helpful in defining the 

scenarios and visualizations 

that are the most useful to see
NREL | 18

Remaining Challenges and Barriers

Data Certainty

• There is limited public, robust data on many of the total cost of 

ownership parameters

• Large uncertainty ranges impacts the ability to segment the 

M/HD market as multiple powertrain technologies can 

compete under different conditions

Modeling Actual Vehicle Ownership Behavior

• Total cost of ownership over the lifetime of the vehicle may not 

represent how industry owns vehicles. For example, Class 8 

Long Haul first owners typically own them for ~2-4 years before 

selling in secondary market. Resale value of Battery and Fuel 

Cell powertrains is unknown and difficult to estimate
NREL | 19

Future Work and Potential Work Proposed Future Work

FASTSim Cost Modeling (FY19)

• Complete FASTSim vehicle modeling for remaining vehicles 

in this study (Class 4 Delivery and Class 8 Short/Long Haul 

completed)

SERA TCO Modeling (FY19)

• Integrate FASTSim outputs for remaining FY19 vehicles into 

SERA for TCO analysis

• Complete TCO analysis including Sensitivity and Scenario 

analysis for all vehicles/vocations

Knowledge Transfer (FY19) 

• Obtain feedback on prototype Online Tool and update based 

on feedback

• Publish the Journal Article and NREL Report on Class 4 Parcel 

Delivery and Class 8 Short/Long Haul along with Online Tool

• Draft report on remaining vehicles/vocations (AOP 

milestone)

Potential Future Scope (FY20+)

• Integrate with H2@Scale through temporal and spatial 

supply, demand, and storage requirements

• Integrate TCO data into ADOPT vehicle choice model 

• Evaluate other vehicle segments (rail, marine)

FY19 Project Plan

FASTSim Cost Modeling

• Complete modeling for 

remaining (FY19) vehicles

SERA TCO Modeling

• Integrate remaining vehicle 

FASTSim outputs into SERA

• Complete TCO sensitivity and 

scenario analysis

Knowledge Transfer

• Obtain feedback on Online Tool

• Publish Online Tool

• Publish report and Journal 

Article on FY18 vehicles

• Draft report for FY19 Vehicles

Any proposed future work is subject to change based on funding levels
NREL | 20

Technology Transfer Activities

• FASTSim is currently available (LDV) and the updated 

version (with M/HDV capabilities) will be made available 

after project completion

– https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/fastsim.html

• Licensing of SERA model is being considered. Please 

inquire if you are interested in using it.

• Online Tool is being developed for external users to 

explore “what-if” scenarios of their choosing. Goal is to 

publish in parallel with NREL Report

Any proposed future work is subject to change based on funding levels
NREL | 21

Summary

Relevance

• Completed analysis of program performance and cost status for the potential use of fuel cells for 

commercial applications and to help enable them (MYRDD Milestone 1.16, 1.17)

Approach

• FASTSim for vehicle optimization to obtain vehicle cost, fuel economy, and weight

• SERA TCO modeling direct costs (MSRP, fuel, O&M) and indirect costs (payload, dwell)

Accomplishments and Progress since FY18

• Incorporated 2018 AMR Reviewer Feedback to include Current Technology costs and PHEVs

• Completed TCO analysis of Class 8 Short Haul, Class 8 Long Haul, and Class 4 Parcel Delivery 

• Identified key cost parameters and demonstrated path to TCO parity with Diesel (presented example for 

Class 8 Long Haul) 

• Analyzed cost and performance improvements effect on Class 8 Long Haul FCEV TCO: 

– Fuel Price: $10/gge → $4-7/gge ($0.27-0.53/mi)

– Hydrogen Storage: $36.7/kWh → $8-10/kWh ($0.20-0.22/mi)

– Fuel Cell Stack: $205/kW → $30-40/kW ($0.10/mi)

– TCO reductions are specific to the 10 year, 100,000 mi/yr scenario assumptions presented here

• Created prototype Online Tool for users to explore TCO data and create “what-if” scenarios

FY19 Ongoing and Planned Work

• Publish Report and Journal Article on Class 4 Parcel Delivery and Class 8 Long/Short Haul vehicles

• Obtain feedback on Online Tool, update, and publish tool for users to explore TCO data

• Complete vehicle modeling and TCO scenario/sensitivity analysis on remaining M/HD vehicles and draft 

report (AOP Milestone)

Any proposed future work is subject to change based on funding levels
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency 

and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

www.nrel.gov

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency 

and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Thank You

This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, 

for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by the U.S. 

Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fuel Cell Technologies Office. The views 

expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government 

retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a 

nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow 

others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.

NREL/PR-5400-73491
Technical Back-Up Slides
NREL | 24

Acronyms

ATRI: American Transportation Research Institute

BETO: Bioenergy Technologies Office

BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle

CNG: Compressed Natural Gas 

EPRI: Electric Power Research Institute

FASTSim: Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator 

FCEV: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle

FCTO: Fuel Cell Technologies Office

FMCSA: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

H2A: Hydrogen Analysis 

H2FAST: Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool

HDRSAM: Heavy-Duty Refueling Station Analysis Model

HEV: Hybrid-Electric Diesel Vehicle

LTL: Less than truckload 

M/HDV: Medium/Heavy-Duty Vehicles

MSRP: Minimum Suggested Retail Price

MYRDD: Multi-Year Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan

OOIDA: Owner Operator Independent Drivers Association

PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

SERA: Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis

TCO: Total Cost of Ownership

VIUS: Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey

VTO: Vehicle Technologies Office
NREL | 25

Assumptions

FASTSim Modeling

• Drive Cycles – Class 8 Tractor (Slide 32), Class 4 Parcel Delivery (Slide 33)

• Cost and Performance Data – Slide 26

• Acceleration Target: 0-60mph in 45 seconds

• Vehicle Weight based on Sum of Component Weights multiplied by 1.2 factor (EPA M/HDV Final Rulemaking)1

• Vehicle Price (MSRP) based on Sum of Component Costs multiplied by 1.5 factor (peer-reviewed FASTSim value)

SERA TCO Modeling

• Fuel Prices – Slide 27-28

• Payload Opportunity Cost – Slide 29

• O&M Cost – Slide 30

• Dwell Cost – Slide 31

• Vehicle Miles Traveled – Based on Transportation Energy Data Book and Fleet DNA

• Vehicle Lifetime – Based on Transportation Energy Data Book and Industry Feedback

• Discount Rate – Based on Long Term Treasury Rates (3%), historical S&P 500 Performance (7-10%)

General

• Designed new powertrains to meet the performance of conventional (diesel) technology so a 1-1 vehicle 

displacement is implicitly assumed

• Durability and longevity of new powertrains is assumed to be the same as diesel technology which assumes 

vehicle manufacturers will create products that meet these requirements

• Assumed no incentives for zero or near-zero emission vehicles

• Assumed no value for emission reductions

1. “Final Rulemaking to Establish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles,” Office of Transportation and Air Quality U.S. Environmental Protection 

Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Policies and Guidance EPA-420-R-11-901, Aug. 2011
NREL | 26

FASTSim input performance and cost 

assumptions

Target year Today 2020 Long Term

Batteries

Battery Cell Mass [kg/kWh] 4.80 4.24 2.50

Battery Cell Price HEV ($/kW) 20 20 13

HEV Battery Cell Cost [$/kWh] 145 145 80

PHEV Battery Cell Cost [$/kWh] 145 145 80

PEV Battery Cell Cost [$/kWh] 145 145 80

Power Electronics

Power electronics & motor (no boost) [$/kW] 22.00 17.00 4.00

Boost Converter [$/kW] 8.50 8.00 2.00

DC/DC Buck Converter [$/kW] 65.0 65.0 18.0

Plug Cost (On Board Charger) [$] 125 125 18.0

FCEV

Fuel Cell

Fuel cell specific power (kW/kg) 1.12 0.65 0.65

Fuel cell cost ($/kW) 205 40 30

Fuel peak efficiency (%) 61% 61% 61%

Fuel storage

Hydrogen storage (kWh/kg) 1.4 1.50 2.20

Hydrogen tank cost ($/kWh) 36.68 10.00 8.00

Hydrogen fuel price ($/kg) 15.7 4.00 4.00

CNG

CNG Storage [$/Usable kWh NG] 8.97 8.97 3.00

CNG fuel storage mass (kWh/kg) 4.67 4.67 5.83

Engine cost ($/kW) 55 55 55

CONVENTIONAL

Engine

Engine specific power (kW/kg) 0.23 0.23 0.23

Engine fixed cost ($) 5,000 5,000 5,000

Engine cost ($/kW) 50 50 50

Fuel storage

Fuel and storage sepcific mass (kWh/kg) 9.88 9.88 9.88

Fuel storage cost ($/kWh) 0.07 0.07 0.07

Current costs were 

estimated for various 

powertrain technologies. 

Future cost and 

performance values are 

based on DOE Targets 

(2020 and Ultimate)
NREL | 27

Fuel priced based on various sources including EIA Energy 

Outlook, Tesla, DOE Targets, HDRSAM, H2FAST, and EPRI

Fuel Low Mid High

Diesel AEO Low Oil AEO Reference AEO High Oil

Natural 

Gas

AEO High Oil and Gas 

Resource Technology

AEO Reference AEO Low Oil and Gas 

Resource Technology

Electricity

Tesla quoted 

electricity price 

($0.07/kWh)

AEO Reference -

Transportation

EPRI Reported DCFC 

Prices

Hydrogen DOE Hydrogen Price 

Target ($4/kg)

HDRSAM/H2FAST 

($7/kg)

HDRSAM/H2FAST 

($10/kg)

EPRI Reported DCFC Charging Prices
NREL | 28

M/HD fleet hydrogen fuel price analysis with 

H2FAST and HDRSAM

H2FAST financial analysis of 

unsubsidized Onsite SMR and 

Onsite Electrolysis for H2 fuel 

generation using HDRSAM data

Results suggest that for natural 

gas prices < $8/mmBTU, $4/gge

dispensed hydrogen is 

achievable without incentives 

Onsite Electrolysis requires 

electricity prices < $0.03/kWh 

to achieve $4/gge

Analysis assumes selling H2 is primary revenue stream 

(fleet operations) whereas public refueling stations (e.g. 

gas stations) obtain most of their profit from selling 

food/drinks/merchandise. 
NREL | 29

Payload opportunity cost analysis

Bound

Payload Opportunity Cost

($/lb-mile)

Industry Scenario

Low 0 Volume limited LTL shipment

Mid 0.0003 Typical freight class, origin/destination, and 

weight break

High 0.0006 High freight class, unattractive 

origin/destination, and low weight break

2002 VIUS showing VMT fraction by typical payload 

indicates strong possibility of being weight-limited

Payload $/lb-mi costs 

based on survey of 

LTL Carrier Rates

Expected value of 

payload opportunity 

costs based on 30% 

probability of being 

weight-limited [1]

[1] 

https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12845/ 

technologies-and-approaches-toreducing-the-fuel-consumption-ofmedium-and-heavy-duty-vehicles
NREL | 30

Operating and Maintenance costs based on extensive 

literature survey and FC Bus Evaluations (NREL)

Cost ($/mi) Bound Diesel 

/ PHEV

HEV CNG EV FCEV

Class 4 Parcel Delivery

Low 0.058 0.134 0.049 0.047 0.047

Mid 0.120 0.199 0.119 0.077 0.120

High 0.234 0.385 0.233 0.111 0.272

Class 8 Tractor

Low 0.076 0.176 0.065 0.061 0.061

Mid 0.155 0.258 0.153 0.100 0.155

High 0.306 0.503 0.304 0.146 0.356

O&M costs based on 

literature data as available. 

FCEV costs scaled based on 

spread between Diesel Bus 

and FC Bus if no FC data was 

available
NREL | 31

Dwell time cost based on estimated refueling 

time and typical hourly dwell time cost

Diesel/HEV

/PHEV

(min)

CNG

(min)

FCEV

(min)

BEV

(min)

Industry Scenario

Low - - - - Day trip with refueling/recharging 

overnight

Mid 5 10 20 40

Continuous (team) driving, 

refueling/recharging as needed. 

Ideal refueling/recharging time

High 10 20 40 80

Continuous (team) driving, 

refueling/recharging as needed. 

Unideal refueling/recharging time

Dwell (refueling or recharging) time based 

on industry reported values and/or targets 

(Nikola, Tesla). Constant rate of $75/hr was 

used in this analysis. 
NREL | 32

Accomplishments and Progress: 

Class 8 Short Haul Vehicle Modeling

Class 8 Short Haul 

costs by powertrain. 

FCEV costs drop 

dramatically when 

2020 and Ultimate 

DOE Targets are met

Class 8 Tractor Drive Cycle
NREL | 33

Accomplishments and Progress: 

Class 4 Parcel Delivery Vehicle Modeling

Class 4 Parcel 

Delivery vehicle 

shows FCEV MSRP 

more expensive 

with today’s costs, 

but competitive 

with Diesel and HEV 

with 2020 cost 

targets 

Class 4 Parcel Delivery Drive Cycle
NREL | 34

Accomplishments and Progress: 

Class 4 Parcel Delivery Vehicle Modeling

Cargo capacity (weight) is 

reduced by battery weight as 

range requirement increases

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

507090

110130150

Range (miles)

Vehicle mass breakdown (lb)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

507090

110130150

Cargo

Fuel Cell

Fuel storage

Motors

Batteries

Transmission

Glider

Range (miles)

Vehicle mass breakdown (lb)

Fuel Cell Powertrain (2020 Tech Targets) Battery Powertrain (2020 Tech Targets)
NREL | 35

Total Cost of Ownership Scenario Analysis: 

Class 8 Short Haul

TCO result in Pacific region. 

FCET costs driven by fuel 

($7/gge H2 in this scenario) and 

Payload Opportunity Cost. At 

$4/gge H2, TCO of FCEV is lower 

than Diesel

Scenario Parameters

• Class 8 Short Haul in Pacific Region

• 60,000 mi/yr, 10 year life

• Payload Cost = High, Dwell Cost = None

• Fuel, O&M Costs = Mid

• Discount Rate = 7%
NREL | 36

Total Cost of Ownership Scenario Analysis: 

Class 4 Parcel Delivery

TCO result in Pacific region. 

FCET costs driven by fuel 

($7/gge H2 in this scenario) and 

O&M Opportunity Cost

Scenario Parameters

• Class 4 Parcel Delivery in Pacific Region

• 30,000 mi/yr, 10 year life

• Payload Cost = None, Dwell Cost = High

• Fuel, O&M Costs = Mid

• Discount Rate = 7%