## August 1, 2014

This workbook combines spreadsheets from the three EPA workbooks used to calculate the state 111(d) goals in order to allow the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) to model the effects of various assumptions on the interim (2020-2029) and final (2029) lbs CO2/MWh rates for affected EGUs in Arizona.
The first spreadsheet, BB Scenarios, consists of variations of Arizona's row in 20140602tsd-state-goal-datecomputation.xsl and currently includes the following scenarios:
1. EPA's goal calculation. EPA's version has been modified to add columns showing the baseline rate, alternative baseline rate and total 2029 EE savings in MWh and to link to the RE and EE calculations in the other spreadsheets, rather than just incorporating the RE and EE values. 2. A rate calculation that assumes (a) 15 % RE by 2029, (b) incremental EE savings of 1.61 % per year (the 2012 savings for Arizona according to EPA) after June 2014 and (c) adjusting redispatch to comply with the final goal of 702 lbs CO2/MWh. Consistent with the proposal, existing RE is counted in the calculation, but EE savings count only if they result from actions taken after the date of proposal. 79 Fed. Reg. 34830, 34918 & n. 293. This rate calculation also modifies the formula for determining NGCC redispatch by setting the post-redispatch generation equal to 2012 capacity (column J) x post-redispatch CF (column U) x 8784. This modification allows the use of Goal Seek to set redispatch generation to the levels that will achieve a particular final or interim rate-based goal
3. Same as 2, except 21 % RE by 2029 is assumed.
4. Same as 3, except 33% RE by 2029 and incremental EE savings of 2 % per year are assumed.
5. Same as 4, except redispatch is adjusted to achieve the interim goal of 735 lbs CO2/MWh, rather than the final
For each scenario, column O shows the level of coal generation in 2020 that would be consistent with the other
The RE spreadsheet (blue tab) includes EPA's original calculation for Arizona plus the alternative calculations used in the scenarios. Each EE alternative has its own spreadsheet (green tabs). The RefTables spreadsheet provides some of the values needed by the EE calculations.
These scenarios have been modeled solely for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect ADEQ's determination that any of the scenarios represents a cost-effective or feasible approach to compliance.

### Source: 20140602tsd-state-goal-data-computation.xls



## Scenario **Coal Rate (lb/MWh)** **NGCC Rate**

**(lb/MWh) O/G rate** 

**(lb/MWh)** 1. EPA Goal Calculation 2,268 900 1,563 2. 15 % RE and 1.61 % Incremental EE Savings 2,268 900 1,563 3. 21 % RE and 1.61 % Incremental EE Savings 2,268 900 1,563 4. 33 % RE and 2.00 % Incremental EE Savings 2,268 900 1,563 5. 33 % RE and 2.00 % Incremental EE Savings 2,268 900 1,563

## Other

**Emissions (lbs) Hist Coal Gen** 

**(MWh) Hist NGCC** 

**Gen. (MWh) Historic OG** 

**steam Gen. (MWh)**  **Other Gen.**

**(MWh) NGCC** 

**Capacity (MW )**  **Under**

**Construction NGCC Capacity**  **(MW)** 17,227,768 24,335,93026,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0 17,227,768 24,335,93026,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0 17,227,768 24,335,93026,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0 17,227,768 24,335,93026,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0 17,227,768 24,335,93026,782,325 1,033,871 19,361 11,202 0

**Step 1 (2012 Data for Fossil Sources)**

## Step 2 (HRI)

**Baseline Rate (lbs/MWh)**  **Adjusted**

**Baseline Rate with At-Risk**  **Nuclear + 2012 RE**  **(lbs/MWh) Adj. Coal Rate** 

**(lbs/MWh) Redispatched** 

**Coal Gen. (MWh) Redispatch O/G** 

**steam Gen. (MWh)**  **Redispatched**

**NGCC Gen. (MWh)**  1,551 1,453 2,132 0 0 52,152,127 1,551 1,453 2,132 6,532,308 277,514 45,342,304 1,551 1,453 2,132 9,707,767 412,418 42,031,941 1,551 1,453 2,132 17,289,394 734,511 34,128,222 1,551 1,453 2,132 9,476,915 402,611 42,272,601 **Step 3a & 3b (Redispatch)**

## Step 4a Nuclear

**Other Emissions (lbs)** **Other Gen.**

**(MWh) 2012 NGCC** 

**Capacity Factor** * **Post**

**Redispatch Assumed NGCC**  **Capacity Factor for Existing**  **Fleet Nuclear** 

**Generation Under**  **Construction and "At Risk" (MWh)** **2020 Existing**

**and Incremental**  **RE** 17,227,768 19,361 27% 53% 1,818,486 2,150,930 17,227,768 19,361 27% 46% 1,818,486 4,620,540 17,227,768 19,361 27% 43% 1,818,486 5,413,260 17,227,768 19,361 27% 35% 1,818,486 6,696,268 17,227,768 19,361 27% 43% 1,818,486 6,696,268 **Step 3a & 3b (Redispatch)**

## 2021 Existing

**and Incremental**  **RE 2022 Existing** 

**and Incremental**  **RE 2023 Existing** 

**and Incremental**  **RE 2024 Existing** 

**and Incremental**  **RE 2025 Existing** 

**and Incremental**  **RE 2026 Existing** 

**and Incremental**  **RE 2027 Existing** 

**and Incremental**  **RE** 2,282,0262,421,1122,568,6762,725,233 2,891,3333,067,555 3,254,519 5,236,5865,934,7686,726,0377,622,8048,639,1359,790,970 11,096,378 6,257,6347,233,7168,362,0499,666,38211,174,16812,917,143 14,931,992 7,949,3369,436,88911,202,80713,299,18015,787,84618,742,214 22,249,431 7,949,3369,436,88911,202,80713,299,18015,787,84618,742,214 22,249,431 **Step 4b Renewable (MWh)**

## 2028 Existing

**and Incremental RE** **2029 Existing**

**and Incremental RE** **2020 EE**

**Potential 2021 EE** 

**Potential 2022 EE** 

**Potential 2023 EE** 

**Potential 2024 EE** 

**Potential** 3,452,877 3,663,325 5.24% 6.28% 7.22% 8.07% 8.83% 12,575,832 14,252,539 8.18% 9.04% 9.80% 10.47% 11.06% 17,261,121 19,953,554 8.18% 9.04% 9.80% 10.47% 11.06% 26,412,950 31,355,586 10.06% 11.09% 12.01% 12.81% 13.51% 26,412,950 31,355,586 10.06% 11.09% 12.01% 12.81% 13.51% **Step 5 (Demand Side EE - % of avoided MWh sales)**

## 2025 EE

**Potential 2026 EE** 

**Potential 2027 EE** 

**Potential 2028 EE** 

**Potential 2029 EE** 

**Potential (%)**  **State**

**Generation as % of sales** **2012 Total**

**MWh (sales x 1.0751)**  **2029 Total**

**EE Savings (MWh)**  9.50% 10.10% 10.61% 11.05% 11.42% 142.51%80,700,6009,215,884 11.56% 11.99% 12.34% 12.63% 12.84% 142.51%80,700,60110,361,084 11.56% 11.99% 12.34% 12.63% 12.84% 142.51%80,700,60210,361,084 14.11% 14.61% 15.02% 15.34% 15.58% 142.51%80,700,60212,570,619 14.11% 14.61% 15.02% 15.34% 15.58% 142.51%80,700,60312,570,619 **Step 5 (Demand Side EE - % of avoided MWh sales)**

## 2020 **2021 2022**  **2023 2024**  **2025 2026**  **2027**

778 765 754 744 735 727 720 713 846 830 813 798 782 767 751 735 897 876 856 836 815 794 773 750 999 970 940 910 879 847 813 778 856 831 805 780 753 726 697 667 **Step 6&7 (State Goal Phase I & II (lbs/MWh))**

## 2028 **2029 Interim Goal**  **or Rate (2020 - 2029**  **average) Final Goal or** 

**Rate (2030 and**  **thereafter)** 707 702 **735 702**  719 702 **774 702**  727 702 **803 702**  741 702 **858 702**  635 601 **735 601** 

## Alternative Effective RE Level (%) Assigned RegionRegional RE

Generation Target (%) State RE

Generation Target (MWh) Calculate

Regional RE Target (MWh)

EPA Goal 10%West 21%19,597,241146,877,467 15 % RE in 2029 10%West 21%19,597,241146,877,467 21 % RE in 2029 10%West 21%19,597,241146,877,467 33 % RE in 2029 10%West 21%19,597,241146,877,467

Source: 20140602tsd-proposed-re-approach.xls

## Calculate

2012 Regional RECalculate

Annual Growth Factor Adjusted 2012

Total Generation without IC Fossil2012

RE (MWh) 2013 2014 2015

68,065,726 6%95,016,9251,697,652 68,065,726 13%95,016,9251,697,6521,923,9972,180,5192,471,242 68,065,726 16%95,016,9251,697,6521,962,4572,268,5652,622,422 68,065,726 19%95,016,9261,697,6522,015,3332,392,4612,840,160

## 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

1,801,1221,910,8982,027,3652,150,9302,282,0262,421,112 2,568,676 2,800,7273,174,1413,597,3424,076,9684,620,5405,236,5865,934,768 6,726,037 3,031,4743,504,3314,050,9454,682,8225,413,2606,257,6347,233,716 8,362,049 3,371,6374,002,5694,751,5675,640,7246,696,2687,949,3369,436,88911,202,807

## 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Interim (2020-2029)

2,725,233 2,891,333 3,067,555 3,254,519 3,452,877 3,663,325 2,847,759 7,622,804 8,639,135 9,790,97011,096,37812,575,832 14,252,539 8,649,559 9,666,38211,174,16812,917,14314,931,99217,261,121 19,953,55411,317,102 13,299,18015,787,84618,742,21422,249,43126,412,950 31,355,58616,313,251

## Final

(2030) Final as % of

Adjusted 2012 Total Generation 3,663,325 3.86% 14,252,539 15.00% 19,953,554 21.00% 31,355,586 33.00%EE Goal

**2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019** 



## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh 1,211 Maintain historical savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 Total annual savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211



## Sales Annual average growth rate % 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% BAU sales GWh 76,275 77,268 78,274 79,294 80,326 81,372 82,432 83,506 Sales after Net EE GWh 75,063 77,268 78,274 79,294 80,326 80,168 80,088 80,087


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % 1.61% 1.57% 1.55% 1.53% 1.51% 1.51% 1.51% Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh 0 0 0 0 1,205 1,203 1,201 Expiring savings GWh 0 0 0 0 0 63 127 Net cumulative savings GWh 0 0 0 0 1,205 2,344 3,419 Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.48% 2.84% 4.09%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2020 2021**  **2022 2023**  **2024 2025**  **2026 2027** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 84,593 85,695 86,811 87,942 89,087 90,247 91,423 92,613 80,163 80,316 80,544 80,846 81,222 81,671 82,193 82,786

1.51% 1.51% 1.51% 1.50% 1.50% 1.49% 1.48% 1.47% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,201 1,202 1,205 1,208 1,213 1,218 1,225 1,233 190 253 316 380 443 507 571 636 4,430 5,379 6,268 7,096 7,865 8,576 9,230 9,827 5.24% 6.28% 7.22% 8.07% 8.83% 9.50% 10.10%10.61%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2028 2029**  **2030**

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 93,820 95,041 96,279 83,452 84,188 84,995

1.46% 1.45% 1.44% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,242 1,252 1,263 701 766 832 10,368 10,854 11,284 11.05%11.42% 11.72%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2031 2032**  **2033 2034**  **2035 2036**  **2037 2038** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 97,533 98,803100,090101,394102,714104,052105,407106,780 85,872 86,820 87,838 88,926 90,084 91,312 92,546 93,789

1.42% 1.41% 1.40% 1.38% 1.36% 1.34% 1.33% 1.31% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,275 1,288 1,302 1,318 1,334 1,351 1,370 1,388 898 966 1,033 1,102 1,171 1,241 1,249 1,258 11,661 11,983 12,252 12,468 12,631 12,740 12,861 12,991 11.96%12.13% 12.24%12.30% 12.30%12.24% 12.20%12.17%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2039 2040**  **2041 2042**  **2043 2044**  **2045 2046** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 108,171109,579111,061112,563114,084115,627117,190118,775 95,040 96,302 97,629 98,970100,323101,692103,076104,476

1.29% 1.27% 1.26% 1.24% 1.22% 1.21% 1.19% 1.18% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,407 1,426 1,445 1,464 1,485 1,505 1,525 1,546 1,268 1,279 1,290 1,303 1,316 1,331 1,346 1,362 13,130 13,277 13,431 13,593 13,761 13,935 14,115 14,299 12.14%12.12% 12.09%12.08% 12.06%12.05% 12.04%12.04%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2047 2048**  **2049 2050** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 120,381122,008123,658125,330 105,893107,327108,780110,251

1.16% 1.14% 1.13% 1.11% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,567 1,588 1,610 1,632 1,378 1,395 1,413 1,431 14,488 14,681 14,878 15,079 12.04%12.03% 12.03%12.03%

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**2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019** 



## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh 1,211 Maintain historical savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 Total annual savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211



## Sales Annual average growth rate % 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% BAU sales GWh 76,275 77,268 78,274 79,294 80,326 81,372 82,432 83,506 Sales after Net EE GWh 75,063 77,268 77,652 77,454 77,338 77,304 77,348 77,472


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % 1.61% 1.57% 1.56% 1.56% 1.57% 1.57% 1.57% Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales % 0.00% 0.81% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61%


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh 0 622 1,250 1,247 1,245 1,245 1,245 Expiring savings GWh 0 0 33 99 164 230 295 Net cumulative savings GWh 0 622 1,839 2,988 4,069 5,084 6,034 Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % 0.00% 0.00% 0.79% 2.32% 3.72% 5.00% 6.17% 7.23%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2020 2021**  **2022 2023**  **2024 2025**  **2026 2027** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 84,593 85,695 86,811 87,942 89,087 90,247 91,423 92,613 77,673 77,951 78,304 78,732 79,234 79,810 80,459 81,181

1.56% 1.56% 1.55% 1.55% 1.54% 1.53% 1.52% 1.51% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61% 1.61%

1,247 1,251 1,255 1,261 1,268 1,276 1,285 1,295 361 426 492 558 625 691 758 826 6,920 7,745 8,507 9,210 9,853 10,437 10,964 11,433 8.18% 9.04% 9.80% 10.47% 11.06% 11.56% 11.99%12.34%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2028 2029**  **2030**

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 93,820 95,041 96,279 81,974 82,839 83,867

1.49% 1.48% 1.46% 1.61% 1.61% 1.50%

1,307 1,320 1,243 894 963 1,033 11,846 12,202 12,412 12.63%12.84% 12.89%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2031 2032**  **2033 2034**  **2035 2036**  **2037 2038** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 97,533 98,803100,090101,394102,714104,052105,407106,780 84,961 86,121 87,347 88,607 89,868 91,131 92,399 93,672

1.44% 1.43% 1.41% 1.39% 1.37% 1.35% 1.33% 1.31% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,258 1,274 1,292 1,310 1,329 1,348 1,367 1,386 1,098 1,164 1,231 1,266 1,270 1,274 1,279 1,286 12,572 12,683 12,743 12,787 12,846 12,921 13,008 13,108 12.89%12.84% 12.73%12.61% 12.51%12.42% 12.34%12.28%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2039 2040**  **2041 2042**  **2043 2044**  **2045 2046** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 108,171109,579111,061112,563114,084115,627117,190118,775 94,950 96,236 97,585 98,944100,313101,693103,086104,491

1.29% 1.28% 1.26% 1.24% 1.22% 1.21% 1.19% 1.17% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,405 1,424 1,444 1,464 1,484 1,505 1,525 1,546 1,293 1,302 1,311 1,321 1,331 1,343 1,355 1,367 13,220 13,343 13,476 13,619 13,772 13,934 14,105 14,283 12.22%12.18% 12.13%12.10% 12.07%12.05% 12.04%12.03%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2047 2048**  **2049 2050** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 120,381122,008123,658125,330 105,910107,344108,792110,259

1.16% 1.14% 1.13% 1.11% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,567 1,589 1,610 1,632 1,381 1,394 1,408 1,428 14,470 14,665 14,866 15,070 12.02%12.02% 12.02%12.02%

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**2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019** 



## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh 1,211 Maintain historical savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 Total annual savings GWh 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211



## Sales Annual average growth rate % 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% BAU sales GWh 76,275 77,268 78,274 79,294 80,326 81,372 82,432 83,506 Sales after Net EE GWh 75,063 77,268 77,502 77,012 76,626 76,343 76,160 76,075


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % 1.61% 1.57% 1.56% 1.57% 1.58% 1.59% 1.59% Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales % 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh 0 773 1,550 1,540 1,533 1,527 1,523 Expiring savings GWh 0 0 41 122 203 284 364 Net cumulative savings GWh 0 773 2,282 3,700 5,029 6,272 7,431 Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % 0.00% 0.00% 0.99% 2.88% 4.61% 6.18% 7.61% 8.90%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2020 2021**  **2022 2023**  **2024 2025**  **2026 2027** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 84,593 85,695 86,811 87,942 89,087 90,247 91,423 92,613 76,085 76,190 76,387 76,675 77,052 77,517 78,069 78,707

1.59% 1.59% 1.59% 1.59% 1.58% 1.57% 1.56% 1.55% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

1,521 1,522 1,524 1,528 1,533 1,541 1,550 1,561 445 525 605 685 765 846 927 1,009 8,508 9,505 10,424 11,267 12,035 12,730 13,354 13,906 10.06%11.09% 12.01%12.81% 13.51% 14.11% 14.61%15.02%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2028 2029**  **2030**

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 93,820 95,041 96,279 79,430 80,237 81,529

1.54% 1.52% 1.51% 2.00% 2.00% 1.50%

1,574 1,589 1,204 1,091 1,174 1,257 14,390 14,804 14,751 15.34%15.58% 15.32%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2031 2032**  **2033 2034**  **2035 2036**  **2037 2038** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 97,533 98,803100,090101,394102,714104,052105,407106,780 82,880 84,292 85,765 87,259 88,733 90,190 91,632 93,061

1.49% 1.46% 1.44% 1.41% 1.39% 1.36% 1.34% 1.32% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,223 1,243 1,264 1,286 1,309 1,331 1,353 1,374 1,321 1,385 1,450 1,476 1,462 1,450 1,440 1,431 14,653 14,511 14,325 14,135 13,982 13,862 13,775 13,719 15.02%14.69% 14.31%13.94% 13.61%13.32% 13.07%12.85%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2039 2040**  **2041 2042**  **2043 2044**  **2045 2046** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.30% 1.30% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 108,171109,579111,061112,563114,084115,627117,190118,775 94,478 95,886 97,340 98,787100,230101,669103,105104,539

1.30% 1.28% 1.26% 1.24% 1.23% 1.21% 1.19% 1.17% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,396 1,417 1,438 1,460 1,482 1,503 1,525 1,547 1,423 1,416 1,411 1,406 1,403 1,400 1,398 1,397 13,693 13,694 13,721 13,775 13,855 13,958 14,085 14,235 12.66%12.50% 12.35%12.24% 12.14%12.07% 12.02%11.99%

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## Annual Incremental Baseline Savings Historical annual incremental savings GWh Maintain historical savings GWh Total annual savings GWh



## Sales Annual average growth rate % BAU sales GWh Sales after Net EE GWh


## Savings as a Percent of Previous Year Sales Historical savings as percent of previous year sales % Final first-year savings as percent of previous year sales %


## Savings and Sales Re-calculation Annual incremental savings GWh Expiring savings GWh Net cumulative savings GWh Net cumulative savings as a percent of sales before EE % **2047 2048**  **2049 2050** 

1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211

1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% 120,381122,008123,658125,330 105,973107,406108,840110,297

1.16% 1.14% 1.13% 1.11% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

1,568 1,590 1,611 1,633 1,396 1,395 1,395 1,417 14,408 14,602 14,818 15,033 11.97%11.97% 11.98%12.00%

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## Source: 20140602tsd-ghg-abatement-measures-scenario1.xls

**EMM Regions and Growth Rate Data** Source: AEO2013 Reference Case. Tables 73-95.

**State Abbrev.**  **EMM Region AAGR (2012-**  **2040) AAGR (2035-** 

**2040)** Alabama AL SRSE 1.03% 1.01% Alaska AK USA 0.78% 0.83% Arizona AZ AZNM 1.30% 1.35% Arkansas AR SRDA 0.86% 0.89% California CA CAMX 0.89% 0.90% Colorado CO RMPA 1.22% 1.19% Connecticut CT NEWE 0.22% 0.22% District of Columbia DC RFCE 0.51% 0.54% Delaware DE RFCE 0.51% 0.54% Florida FL FRCC 1.19% 1.32% Georgia GA SRSE 1.03% 1.01% Hawaii HI USA 0.78% 0.83% Idaho ID NWPP 0.97% 0.89% Illinois IL RFCW 0.41% 0.49% Indiana IN RFCW 0.41% 0.49% Iowa IA MROW 0.54% 0.74% Kansas KS SPNO 0.59% 0.87% Kentucky KY SRCE 0.88% 0.77% Louisiana LA SRDA 0.86% 0.89% Maine ME NEWE 0.22% 0.22% Maryland MD RFCE 0.51% 0.54% Massachusetts MA NEWE 0.22% 0.22% Michigan MI RFCM 0.33% 0.47% Minnesota MN MROW 0.54% 0.74% Mississippi MS SRDA 0.86% 0.89% Missouri MO SRGW 0.47% 0.73% Montana MT NWPP 0.97% 0.89% Nebraska NE MROW 0.54% 0.74% Nevada NV NWPP 0.97% 0.89% New Hampshire NH NEWE 0.22% 0.22% New Jersey NJ RFCE 0.51% 0.54% New Mexico NM AZNM 1.30% 1.35% New York NY NYCW 0.23% 0.21% North Carolina NC SRVC 1.10% 1.12% North Dakota ND MROW 0.54% 0.74% Ohio OH RFCW 0.41% 0.49% Oklahoma OK SPSO 0.88% 0.94% Oregon OR NWPP 0.97% 0.89% Pennsylvania PA RFCE 0.51% 0.54%

## Rhode Island RI NEWE 0.22% 0.22%

South Carolina SC SRVC 1.10% 1.12% South Dakota SD MROW 0.54% 0.74% Tennessee TN SRCE 0.88% 0.77% Texas TX ERCT 0.89% 0.97% Utah UT NWPP 0.97% 0.89% Vermont VT NEWE 0.22% 0.22% Virginia VA SRVC 1.10% 1.12% Washington WA NWPP 0.97% 0.89% West Virginia WV RFCW 0.41% 0.49% Wisconsin WI MROE 0.35% 0.45% Wyoming WY NWPP 0.97% 0.89%
**Measure Decay Schedule** This table calculates the schedule for measure decay. A linear decay trend twice the an average measure life of 10 years is assumed below.

Year Year Year Year Year Year 46 45 44 43 42 41 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
**Goal level (first-year savings as a percent of sales)** Assumption

Goal level 1.50%
**Ramp rate (% achieved per year)** Assumption

Ramp rate 0.20%

## This table calculates the schedule for measure decay. A linear decay trend twice the an average measure life of 10 years is assumed below.

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

## Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

33 32 31 30 29 28 27 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

## Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

26 25 24 23 22 21 20 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

## Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

19 18 17 16 15 14 13 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 0% 5% 11% 16% 21% 26% 32%

## Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 37% 42% 47% 53% 58% 63% 68% 74% 79%

## Year Year Year Year

3 2 1 0 5% 5% 5% 0% 84% 89% 95% 100%