The Council of Economic Advisers

June 2019

September 29, 2017

Government Employment and Training 

Programs: Assessing the Evidence on 

their Performance
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 1

Executive Summary

June 2019

For the first time since the Government began tracking job openings nearly 20 years ago, there 

are more job openings in the United States than unemployed people looking for work. In fact, 

there are over 1.6 million more job openings than unemployed people. Because of the Trump 

Administration’s pro-growth policies, the American worker is in great demand. In a 2019 survey 

by the National Federation of Independent Businesses, a quarter of small businesses reported 

that their single most important problem is finding workers with the skillset employers need. 

In an effort to address this issue, the Trump Administration is striving to connect job seekers 

with the resources and tools necessary to find employment. This includes ensuring that those 

seeking employment have the skills and training necessary to fill available jobs. In an effort to 

satisfy employer needs, the Trump Administration has launched initiatives like the Pledge to 

America’s Workers. In less than a year since introducing the Pledge, companies and trade 

groups have committed to provide almost 10 million Americans with education and training 

opportunities over the next five years and close the skills gap that currently exists in the 

American labor market. 

In accordance with the Executive Order Establishing the President’s National Council for the 

American Worker, the Council of Economic Advisers has prepared this report examining the 

evidence available on the effectiveness of government employment and training programs. 

According to the Office of Management and Budget, the Federal Government has 47 different 

employment and training programs spread across 15 different government agencies. 

Aggregate spending on these programs totaled $18.9 billion in 2019 alone. 

This report sets out to assess how effective public programs are at increasing the wages and 

employment rates among program participants, but unfortunately, few rigorous evaluations 

exist to measure the success of government-funded training programs. Until recently, many 

job training programs frequently failed to track metrics that allow researchers to evaluate 

program returns to taxpayer dollars expended. Many public training programs have not 

undergone rigorous evaluation and therefore a framework needs to be established for 

evaluating trainee success, both by incorporating randomized control trials into program 

design and by improving data collection and long-term tracking of participant outcomes. 

Among the training programs with available data and rigorous impact studies, the evidence 

shows that most government training programs are not effective at securing higher paying jobs 

for participants. For example, in an evaluation of the Workforce Investment Act training 

program using administrative data, two years after receiving training, workers who received 

intensive job search assistance had quarterly earnings that were $310 above that for workers 
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 2

who did not receive the intensive assistance. Yet in the first two years, no further wage gains 

were achieved among those who also were offered job training. While the benefits of services 

like job search assistance and career guidance are important, these services alone will not help 

workers who require new skills to compete in today’s economy. With the exception of the 

Registered Apprenticeship program, government job training programs appear to be largely 

ineffective and fail to produce sufficient benefits for workers to justify the costs. This highlights 

the importance of efforts such as those of the National Council for the American Worker to work 

with both public and private organizations to update and improve the nature of America’s job 

training programs as well as their evaluations.

The National Council for the American Worker is not only addressing these issues, but has set 

out to go even further by connecting State and local government resources with those of the 

Federal government. Enhanced transparency regarding outcomes will allow job seekers, 

policymakers, and program administrators to better understand which programs are working. 

Additionally, with better data, there are opportunities to learn from the successes and failures 

across public programs and shift resources to the types of programs that show the greatest 

returns.

With the creation of the National Council for the American Worker, the Trump Administration 

remains committed to developing a National strategy for training and retraining the workers 

needed across high-demand industries. The following report assists decision makers as they 

seek to ensure that America’s workers are well-equipped with the skills and training needed to 

excel in our nation’s booming economy.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 3

Introduction

Today’s economy is one of great strength. The job market is booming, with May 2019 having 

marked the 104th month of positive job growth – the longest streak of growth on record. The 

national unemployment rate in May 2019 was 3.6 percent, matching the lowest unemployment 

rate since December 1969. The unemployment rate has been at or below 4 percent for 15

consecutive months. Wages are also rising, with 10 straight months of year-over-year nominal 

average hourly wage gains that were at or above 3 percent. There is also evidence that real 

wages are growing year over year, which means Americans are able to purchase more goods 

and services with their bigger paychecks. The benefits of a robust economy and the historic 

trends in job growth are being felt across demographic groups. 

The Trump Administration’s pro-growth and pro-worker policies are also pulling individuals off 

the sidelines. The prime age (25-54) labor force participation rate has increased by 0.7

percentage points since the President was elected, and the prime age employment to 

population ratio has increased by 1.6 percentage points over the same time period. Even with 

the increase in labor force participation, many workers remain on the sidelines who could 

potentially benefit from reskilling. In May 2019, there were 5 million people who were out of 

the labor force who reported wanting to work in addition to 5.9 million people who were 

unemployed (who are considered as part of the labor force).

With a tightening labor market – continued job growth and low unemployment rates – there is 

evidence that employers are struggling to find employees with suitable skillsets. Last year, for 

the first time since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking job openings in 2000, there 

were more job openings than unemployed workers. April 2019, when there were 7.4 million job 

openings, was the 14th consecutive month during which the number of vacancies exceeded 

the number of unemployed persons. The high number of unfilled positions, combined with 

anecdotal evidence from businesses, signals that employers are having trouble finding skilled 

workers. The evolving nature of work and changing skill needs of American employers are 

transforming the labor market, while providing new and different opportunities for American 

workers.

In a previous report, “Addressing America’s Reskilling Challenge” (CEA 2018), we outlined the 

issue of the skills gap that is emerging in our ever-changing economy. The skills gap refers to 

the skills of available workers not matching the skills needed by employers. Even in a booming 

economy, the lack of necessary skills can prevent some individuals from enjoying the benefits 

of a robust labor market. Our previous report highlighted the importance of addressing this 

issue, as well as the challenges facing workers and firms in doing so. In this report, we examine 

the existing infrastructure of Federal worker training programs and review the evidence 

regarding their effectiveness. Overall, we find that the evidence of government job training 
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 4

programs on improving labor market outcomes is mixed. They may have small positive effects 

overall, but may be more effective for particular groups of people and at certain times in the 

business cycle. The large number of programs and the heterogeneity in the types of programs 

make it difficult to establish a single general conclusion, but rather suggests that some 

programs are effective whereas others are failing to live up to their hoped-for potential. The 

Trump Administration is responding and has taken action to address the limitations of existing 

programs to close the skills gap. Workers and firms need innovative solutions to worker 

training due to the findings of mixed effectiveness of existing government-funded worker 

training/reskilling programs, and the need to respond to employers’ struggles to find skilled 

workers and to enable more people on the sidelines to benefit from the booming economy.

This report concludes with a discussion of the steps taken by the Administration to meet the 

skills needs of a modern economy.

Role of Government in Worker Training

Employers have incentives to recruit and train the workers they need, particularly in a tight 

labor market. Spending by employers on formal and informal worker training greatly exceeds 

spending by the Federal government (Carnevale, Gulish, and Strohl, 2015). However, there are 

economic reasons why employers may provide less than the optimal amount of worker 

training, namely that if one employer spends money training a worker only to lose them to a 

rival, they may be reluctant to invest in the training. 

Economists define human capital as the knowledge and skills that increase the productivity of 

workers. Human capital that can be applied at a range of firms is called general human capital, 

whereas human capital that can only be applied at a single firm (or a small set of firms) is called 

specific human capital. Learning a firm’s proprietary computing system is an example of 

specific human capital, as it increases the worker’s productivity but only at that specific firm.

On the other hand, learning a commonly used computer programming language is an example 

of general human capital. 

Investing in training is potentially risky from the perspective of any particular firm because it 

incurs an upfront cost to train a worker who may leave the firm before the cost is recovered 

through the higher productivity of the worker. Investments in general human capital are riskier 

for the firm because general human capital makes the worker more attractive to other firms, 

which have an incentive to free-ride on the investment by hiring trained workers rather than 

incurring the cost and risk of providing the training themselves. Due to the risk of losing newly 

trained workers, firms may be reluctant to provide training that leads to an increase in general 

human capital. Skills gaps that are related to general human capital are traditionally viewed as 

unlikely to be bridged by private sector training, as employers do not individually have the 

incentive to fully bridge the gap in general skills. 
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 5

However, there is some evidence suggesting that training could actually help increase 

retention. Flaherty (2007) finds that participation in a tuition reimbursement program 

increases employee retention. Dietz and Zwick (2016) use matched employer-employee data 

and find that training increases employee retention. However, the retention effects are 

reduced for more general forms of training and for training that has greater external visibility 

(e.g. training that leads to a certificate).Yousuf and Siddiqui (2019) also find that training may 

increase employee retention rates though they did not distinguish between general and firmspecific human capital. This suggests that employer-provided training could create goodwill 

towards an employer.

Although in a simple model, firms do not have an incentive to provide general training, there 

are situations in which firms will provide training that develops general human capital.

Acemoglu and Pischke (1998) show that when labor markets are imperfectly competitive, it can 

be beneficial for firms to provide general training. In order to cover the cost of the training, the 

firm must raise wages by less than the increase in productivity due to the training, which is 

possible with an imperfectly competitive labor market. In a perfectly competitive labor market, 

the worker can receive an outside offer if the firm pays the worker less than the marginal 

productivity of the worker. In a tight labor market, firms may also provide general training in 

an effort to retain workers. 

An alternate model for worker training is for workers to pay for their training independently.

To the extent that training is an investment in one’s own future employment potential and 

raises future wages, workers should have an incentive to pursue such training. In the 

framework of general and specific human capital, self-funded training is most advantageous 

for developing general human capital that will make the worker desirable to a range of 

employers. For several reasons, however, workers may underinvest in their own human 

capital. This includes the potential positive spillovers from the additional productivity, such 

that the worker may obtain the optimal human capital to maximize their personal net-benefits 

while falling short of the level of human capital that would maximize societal net-benefits.

These positive spillovers may result in a role for government intervention in order to incentivize 

workers to attain the optimal level of general human capital.

Another argument in favor of government intervention is that individuals who would benefit 

from training may be credit constrained. Even if worker incentives are structured to obtain the 

optimal level of training, some may be unable to afford the cost of training or may not be able 

to stop working long enough to go through training. Although training may be beneficial to the 

individual and society in the long term, these short-term constraints may prevent the 

individual from participating in training. A similar argument is often used to justify 

government-subsidized higher education (Lochner and Monge-Naranjo, 2011).
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 6

Overview of Federal Worker Training Programs in the U.S.

History of workforce training programs in the US

The first large-scale Federal workforce development programs began in response to the Great 

Depression.1 The Wagner-Peyser Act (1933) established the Employment Service (ES), which 

still operates today. The ES provides labor exchange services, such as job search assistance, to 

job seekers. 

The next major piece of legislation addressing worker training programs was the 1962 

Manpower Development and Training Act (MDTA), which provided large-scale training to 

workers. Mostly run by the Federal government, the MDTA included classroom and on-the-job 

training. MDTA was replaced by the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) in 

1973, which was designed to give States and local governments greater authority.

The Job Training Partnership Act of 1982 (JTPA) replaced CETA and gave States more control 

and responsibility for monitoring local programs and encouraged partnerships with the private 

sector in developing those local programs. It was replaced by the Workforce Investment Act of 

1998 (WIA), which integrated services (one-stop delivery system), increased individual choice 

through Individual Training Account (ITA) vouchers, gave universal access to core 

employment-related services, and gave greater flexibility to target programs to local labor 

market needs. WIA was replaced by the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act of 2014 

(WIOA). States were given a larger administrative role and tasked with developing unified 

strategic planning across programs. WIOA requires uniform performance measures and 

evaluation of data by third parties. The law requires further integration of workforce 

development programs within the ES offices, which are now called American Job Centers. The 

one-stop delivery model is designed to simplify the system from the point of view of the user 

and increase awareness and enrollment in eligible services.

Current organization

In 2019, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a comprehensive report on 

government employment and training programs. They identified 43 different employment 

and training programs across nine different agencies in Fiscal Year 2017.2The U.S. 

Department of Labor (DOL) has the most employment and training programs (19), followed 

 

1 For a more detailed history of workforce training legislation see Barnow and Smith (2015).

2 GAO excludes programs where the “program objectives do not explicitly include helping job seekers enhance 

their job skills, find job opportunities, or obtain employment.” Some programs that are excluded include Adult 

Education grants, the Federal Pell Grant Program, and Federal Student Aid programs. There is no clear distinction 

between training and education programs since they both seek to increase human capital, and we therefore view 

the GAO count as a lower bound on the number of employment and training programs.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 7

by the U.S. Department of Education (ED), and the U.S. Department of Health and Human 

Services (HHS), with 7 programs each. Overall, these 43 programs served approximately 10.7 

million people in 2017, although the number of unique individuals is lower, as some could 

have participated in multiple programs. Many of the largest programs in terms of number of 

people served and budget are in DOL. These programs include the WIOA Adult and Dislocated 

Worker programs, WIOA Youth Activities, the Employment Services, and Job Corps. ED runs a 

large grant program related to vocational training for people with disabilities. There are also 

job training programs associated with two large welfare programs: Temporary Assistance for 

Needy Families (TANF), which is run by HHS, and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program 

(SNAP), which is run by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Table 1 presents the largest programs based on the 2017 Budget (enacted appropriations) as 

well as the number of individuals served by the program. The program spending amounts only 

represent the portion of the overall program that goes towards employment and training 

services. Table 3 in the Appendix provides a description and a summary of research findings of 

all of the programs discussed in this report. Many of the programs tend to be targeted to 

specific groups (e.g., disadvantaged adults, at-risk youth, or dislocated workers). Figure 1 

shows the percent of spending targeted to each group. Programs targeting general (and 

disadvantaged) adults comprised the largest share of spending at 36 percent, followed by 

Table 1. Largest Government Employment and Training Programs, based on GAO (2019)

Program Agency

2017 Budget 

(Millions)

Number Served 

2017 (Thousands)

State Vocational Rehabilitation Services Program Education $2,899.6 975.4

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Health and 

Human Services

$2,152.6 190.1

Job Corps Labor $1,623.9 48.3

Vocational Rehabilitation Services VA $1,400.0 132.2

WIOA Dislocated Worker Program Labor $1,017.2 467.5

WIOA Youth Program Labor $867.2 150.4

WIOA Adult Program Labor $812.8 1,108.2

Wagner-Peyser Act Employment Service Labor $666.2 5,414.8

Senior Community Service Employment Program Labor $561.2 60.0

Source: GAO (2019).

Note: The total served for some programs is for 2016 if 2017 data were not available. Programs are omitted if they 

did not provide budget information to GAO.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 8

individuals with disabilities (20 percent) and youth (16 percent). The programs targeting 

dislocated workers (including those dislocated due to trade) accounted for 9 percent of total 

spending on employment and training programs.

The GAO report found that there was significant overlap between the various programs and,

although there has been some consolidation in recent years, little has been done to evaluate 

whether efforts at consolidating programs have led to better outcomes for participants. Table 

2 shows the number of employment and training programs that provide a specific service for 

certain target populations. Of the eight total programs that target the general adult 

population, all eight provide employment counseling and assessment as well as job referrals.

7,587 

3,545 

2,894 

2,098 

1,427 1,344 

 -

 1,000

 2,000

 3,000

 4,000

 5,000

 6,000

 7,000

 8,000

Adult Disabled Youth Veterans Dislocated

Workers

Other

Figure 1. Government Spending on Job Training by Recipient Type, 2019 

Source: Office of Management and Budget.

Note: Adult includes programs for disadvantaged adults and programs with no specific target group. Other category includes all 

programs not explicitly contributing to the assorted types. Categories are not mutually exclusive, but each program is assigned to only a 

single category.

Millions of dollars

Service Category General 

Population

Native 

Americans

Veterans and 

Transitioning 

Service members

Youth

Employment Counseling and Assessment 8 8 5 5

Job Referrals 8 8 5 4

Job search/placement 7 8 6 5

Occupational training 7 8 4 5

Adult Literacy or Remedial English 5 6 3 5

Total Number of Programs 8 8 7 5

Source: GAO (2019).

Table 2. Number of Employment and Training Programs Providing a Specific Service 

by Target Population, 2017
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 9

Almost all of the programs provide job search/placement services and occupational training.

For other target populations like Native Americans, Veterans, and youth, there is a similar 

amount of overlap in the services provided by different programs with the same target 

population. However, this overlap is not evidence that the different programs are purely 

duplicative, as a given individual in any of these target groups is unlikely to qualify for every 

program due to differences in eligibility requirements for the different programs.

The 2019 GAO report was an update of an earlier report which included program information 

for fiscal year 2009 (GAO 2011). GAO identified 47 employment and training programs that were 

operational in 2009. Spending on employment and training programs increased during the 

Great Recession due to special appropriations as a part of the stimulus package, which has

since expired. Figure 2 shows the nominal spending on employment and training programs 

since 2014. The decline from the expiration of the stimulus has since reversed and spending 

has increased since 2015. This increase has been smaller in real terms, however, and real 

spending in 2018 is nearly unchanged from the 2014 levels. The increase in spending has also 

been less than the overall growth in the economy and spending on employment and training 

programs has been declining as a percentage of GDP (from 0.096 percent in 2014 to 0.088

percent in 2018). 

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Government Employment and 

Training Programs

Although government worker training programs have a long history, it can be difficult to 

evaluate whether or not they are effective. Until recently, randomized impact studies of these 

16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000

19,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Figure 2. Total Government Spending on Job Training, 2014–19

Dollars (millions)

Source: Office of Management and Budget.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 10

programs were not common. GAO (2011) found that only five of the employment and training 

programs had conducted impact studies to evaluate program effectiveness. With non-random 

selection into participation in a program, it can be difficult to isolate the effects of the program.

It is not possible to tell whether or not a program is effective by simply comparing outcomes of 

those who participate with those who do not because individuals who choose to participate 

can differ from nonparticipants in difficult to observe ways that affect later outcomes. If 

individuals who participate in a program would have had better outcomes anywayeven if they 

had not participated, then the difference in outcomes would not have been caused completely

by the program. In this case, comparing participants with nonparticipants would cause one to 

overstate the benefits of the program and could lead one to attribute a positive effect when 

the true effect is zero.

The simplest way to estimate the causal effect of a program is to randomize who participates 

in the program. With a randomized control trial (RCT), individuals are randomly assigned to a 

treatment and control group. If you can randomly assign individuals to a job training program 

(treatment), then the causal effect of the program is the difference in outcomes between the 

treatment and control groups (called the average treatment effect or ATE). RCTs are not 

without their own issues, as some individuals assigned to treatment will not participate or 

complete the treatment, they are expensive to conduct, and the results may not generalize 

beyond the population studied. Furthermore, control/treatment group comparison issues may 

arise if the control group has access to other services in the community, a methodological 

problem that is particularly pronounced in service-rich environments. Therefore, the 

estimated treatment effect is not the effect of the program versus no treatment, but the effect 

of the program versus other services that can potentially serve as substitutes. So, the estimates 

of program effectiveness are conditional on the other services available.

Recognizing that RCTs are not always feasible, the field of economics has developed a number 

of techniques to estimate the causal effect of worker training programs with non-random 

assignment to treatment. The ability of these methods to estimate the true effect of job training 

programs has been under debate for many decades. The seminal paper by LaLonde (1986) 

compared the estimates from a randomized study of a job training program to those from nonrandom methods and found that the non-random methods were not able to replicate the 

results of the RCT.

3Hence, where available, we focus here on the results from randomized trials 

to limit these concerns.

 

3 Non-random methods of data analysis for estimating program effectiveness have improved substantially since 

LaLonde (1986). Some of the most popular methods for conducting analysis with non-random assignment such 

as Instrumental Variables, Regression Discontinuity, and Difference-in-Difference have not been widely used to 

study government employment and training programs. See Barnow and Smith (2015) for a discussion of the 

limitations of these methods in this context.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 11

There are other issues that arise in evaluating the effect of training programs. The goal of 

worker training programs is to improve labor market outcomes such as employment and 

wages. After a disruption, workers who go through a training program may return to the labor 

force less quickly due to the time it takes to complete the training. If the program is evaluated 

based on short-term outcomes, it may look as if the training causes worse outcomes. The 

benefit to the individual depends on how long it takes for the returns to training to materialize 

and the amount of time left before retirement. If the labor market returns to training are small,

or don’t materialize for many years, it may not be worth it for the individual to leave the labor 

force to undergo training, particularly for older workers who do not have many remaining 

working years before retiring.

Evaluating the effectiveness of training programs also requires accurate data. For labor market 

outcomes, data can come from surveys or from administrative sources. Survey data suffer from 

non-response bias and recall bias. Non-response bias will arise if the individuals who 

participate in the survey differ in their labor market outcomes from those who do not

participate. Recall bias refers to individuals reporting the data with less accuracy due to the 

reliance on memory and likely increases as they are asked to recall information after longer 

periods of time. Administrative data such as tax or other government data are thought to 

measure formal labor market earnings better than survey data since they are not subject to 

recall or non-response bias. The downside of administrative data is that it excludes informal 

labor market activity, which may be an important source of income depending on the 

population studied.

In addition to labor market outcome data, evaluating the effectiveness of training programs 

requires accurate data and records from the administrators of the program on the individuals 

being trained. In a recent report, the Office of Inspector General of the Department of Labor 

concluded that Job Corps was not capable of demonstrating beneficial outcomes due to poor 

recordkeeping by the center operators who administer the program (DOL 2018). They took a 

random sample of 324 Job Corps participants from July 2010 to June 2012. Out of this sample, 

123 were employed prior to program participation. Yet, records document only 50 of the 123 

participants’ employment history. In addition, Job Corps center operators were unable to 

demonstrate their assistance in employment placement for 94 percent of the sample, even 

though contractors are required to provide that assistance.

Evidence on Program Effectiveness

In this section, we present an overview of the available evidence on government employment 

and training programs. We focus on the most recent studies and on programs that are still in 

existence.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 12

Programs for disadvantaged adults and displaced workers

The WIOA Adult and Dislocated Worker Programs fund three types of services, which used to 

be available under WIA. Core services are mostly self-directed access to resources and

information and require little assistance from staff. The Core services can be accessed online 

or at resource rooms at the American Job Centers.4Intensive services involve more staff 

assistance and include workshops and one-on-one assistance. The Core and Intensive services 

are primarily job search assistance programs and are designed to help match workers to 

available jobs given their current skills.5WIOA can also pay for job training programs. The WIOA 

Adult and WIOA Dislocated Worker programs provide the same services but have different 

eligibility requirements. The WIOA Adult services prioritizes low-income adults. The Dislocated

Worker services are available to those who are laid off due to a plant closure or downsizing, 

workers who were laid off and unlikely to find a job in their previous occupation, and some 

other groups of dislocated workers.

Overall, the consensus of studies into these programs suggests that training may have small 

positive effects on earnings in the adult worker program, but there is not a significant effect on 

earnings from training for dislocated workers. As a result, while intensive services have a 

positive net benefit, once considering the costs of the program, the additional WIOA Training 

services have a negative net benefit.

The most comprehensive study into the WIA/WIOA training program was funded by DOL and 

conducted by Mathematica, which administered a large randomized study of the WIA adult and 

dislocated worker training programs.

6 Mathematica published results after 15 months and 

after a follow-up period of 30 months (McConnell et al. 2016, Fortson et al. 2017). Individuals 

who were eligible for intensive services were randomly assigned into one of three treatment 

groups (Core only, Core and Intensive only, and full WIA, which included training if they were 

eligible for it as well as Core and Intensive services). Earnings were measured through followup surveys at 15 and 30 months after random assignment and with administrative records. The 

administrative earnings records are from the National Directory of New Hires, which contains

data on quarterly earnings and is collected by State unemployment agencies. The 

administrative data include information on a larger sample of individuals, including individuals 

who did not respond to the survey. Although the administrative data are not subject to 

 

4 WIA made access to core services available to everyone.

5 WIOA combined Core and Intensive services into a single tier of service.

6 The impact study was conducted under WIA, however, the Adult and Displaced worker programs were 

reauthorized under WIOA with some minor modifications that were implemented after the study period that may 

impact current effectiveness.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 13

sampling or nonresponse bias, the administrative data do not include self-employment, 

agricultural work, or under-the-table work.

Providing some evidence for the value of additional services beyond just the core offerings, the

survey based findings on earnings forthe Full WIA and the Core and Intensive-only groups were 

significantly higher than the Core-only group after 30 months. Figure 3 presents the impact by 

quarter for the Core and Intensive-only compared to the Core-only and the Full WIA compared 

to the Core only. In the first quarter after random assignment, the Core and Intensive-only 

earned about $400 more than the Core-only group. These gains persisted and even grew over 

the remainder of the follow-up period. The Full WIA group saw slightly lower earnings than the 

Core-only group in the first couple of quarters, due to the lock-in effects of training. By the third

quarter following random assignment, the Full WIA had higher earnings than the Core-only 

group and the earnings gains of the Full WIA group grew over the remainder of the follow-up 

period. In the tenth quarter after random assignment, compared to the Core-only group, the 

Core and Intensive group earned $963 more and the full WIA group earned $773 more when 

measuring earnings with the survey data. 

However, using administrative data, these results are less optimistic, as seen in Figure 4. 

Initially, the pattern is the same as in the survey data. The earnings of the Core and Intensiveonly is higher than the Core-only group and the Full WIA has lower earnings than the Core-only 

group in the first couple of quarters. Towards the end of the follow-up period, the impact 

estimate of the Core and Intensive-only declines. The earnings difference between the groups 

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10

C&I – C impact F – C impact 

Figure 3. Survey Data Results from 30-Month WIA Impact Report

2012 dollars

Source: Mathematica Policy Research.

Note: C&I - C = Core and Intensive - Core only. F - C = Full WIA - Core only. Line markers signify statistical significance at the 5 percent 

level.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 14

in the tenth quarter after random assignment is not statistically different from zero when using 

the administrative data.

In summary, there was no effect of training (Full WIA) on earnings when combined with Core 

and Intensive services for either Adult or Dislocated workers for either earnings data source.

The cost-benefit analysis using the survey data showed that intensive services had a positive 

net benefit to society as a whole but that training had a negative net benefit. 

Although a randomized trial is preferable for evaluating the effectiveness of job training 

programs, several studies that used non-random and quasi-random selection have found 

positive effects of WIA. Andersson et al. (2016) use administrative data to evaluate the impact 

of WIA training in two States. They find modest positive effects on earnings and employment 

for adults and no effect for displaced workers. Heinrich et al. (2013) also find a moderate 

positive effect on employment and earnings for those in the Adult program with a smaller effect 

for dislocated workers. They find a positive effect of training for those in the Adult program and 

no effect of training for dislocated workers. They use administrative data for 12 States and a 

matching strategy that compares program participants to similar nonparticipating individuals.

A couple of single State studies also find evidence of a positive impact of WIA on employment 

and earnings in Indiana (Hollenbeck 2009) and Missouri (Heinrich and Mueser 2014). The 

positive effect of intensive services is consistent with prior research that finds that mandatory 

participation in job search assistance programs as a condition for receiving Unemployment 

Insurance is effective at reducing the length of unemployment (Klepinger et al. 2002, Black et 

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12

C&I – C impact F – C impact 

Figure 4. Adminstative Data Results from 30 Month WIA Impact 

Report

2012 dollars

Source: Mathematica Policy Research.

Note: C&I - C = Core and Intensive - Core only. F - C = Full WIA - Core only. Line markers signify statistical significance at the 5 percent 

level.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 15

al. 2003).7Decker et al. (2000) find that job search assistance is effective at getting individuals 

back to work (increases employment in the short run), but that the benefits do not generally 

persist beyond 1 year.

In addition to the WIA, the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program provides temporary 

benefits to workers who are laid off due to foreign trade. Workers in industries facing rising 

import competition can be displaced and unable to find similar work. Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 

(2013) estimated that one quarter of the manufacturing jobs lost between 1990 and 2007 were 

due to rising import competition from China. TAA provides assistance to these workers to allow 

them to retrain and find a job in a different industry. The training and job search assistance

provided by TAA is similar to what is available through WIA, so studies on TAA can offer 

additional evidence on the effectiveness of government-provided training. Workers displaced 

due to trade are also eligible for cash assistance while in training, relocation assistance, and a 

period of wage subsidization if reemployed at a lower wage. Schochet et al. (2012) estimated 

the effect of TAA using a matching method that compared TAA participants with similar 

individuals in the Unemployment Insurance claims files. They found that outcomes started to

improve over a 4-year period but had generally not yet caught up to the control group due to 

the long period of training. This suggests that if there are positive effects of training, the returns 

to training are not large. Hyman (2018 WP) looks at the initial implementation of TAA in the ‘70s 

and ‘80s and finds that TAA is effective at increasing earnings 10 years out. Reynolds and 

Palatucci (2012) found no impact of TAA on employment on average, but did find some positive 

effects on employment from participants in the training component.

Overall, the studies on the effectiveness of the WIA Intensive and Training services are in 

agreement that there is not a significant effect on earnings for training through the WIA 

Dislocated Worker program, but there are mixed results for the Adult program, which may 

result in a small positive effect on earnings.However, the positive effects of training in the Adult 

program are only found in smaller scale, non-random studies. The Intensive services appear to 

be effective at increasing earnings. In terms of the net benefits, the studies suggest that 

Intensive services have a positive net benefit and that Training services have a negative net 

benefit.

One potential reason for the negative net benefit of Training services in the WIA is the approach 

to administering this training. Training in WIA is primarily conducted through vouchers in 

Individual Training Accounts (ITA). The voucher-based system provides individuals with a lot 

of freedom to choose the direction of their training as they can spend the voucher at any 

qualified training provider. However, if there are large information frictions and information 

 

7 Black et al (2003) find that the job search assistance services themselves have the effect of reducing 

unemployment duration but that making participation mandatory produces an even larger effect. This implies 

that some of those collecting Unemployment Insurance delay returning to work.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 16

asymmetries, individuals may make training decisions that lead to worse long term outcomes 

(as they lack the information needed to make an informed training choice). Individuals have to 

select from a list of eligible training providers and have access to some information on provider 

quality. A 2011 study on ITAs found that training programs that followed a guided choice model 

(determined more by the counselors but individualized to the customer) and had a higher 

spending cap were more effective than leaving the training choices up to the individual (PerezJohnson et al. 2011). A 2012 meta-analysis of voucher training studies found that voucherbased training may have a very small positive effect on employment and earnings (Negoita et 

al. 2012).

Welfare-to-work programs

There are large employment and training programs associated with some of the welfare 

programs. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) provides block grants to States.

The States use some of this money to provide employment and training services in order to 

assist beneficiaries in returning to work. The Employment Retention and Advancement Project 

was a randomized study of different strategies for promoting employment stability and 

advancement. The study included 16 different program models in 8 states. The study launched 

in 1999 and collected data over a three or four year follow-up period. A limitation of the study 

is that each of the study sites implemented a different treatment. Therefore, it is difficult to tell 

whether the effect would be observed in other settings. Hamilton and Scrivener (2012) report 

the results of this study and find that among the 12 programs targeted at the most employable 

group, only 3 were able to show increases in employment retention and advancement. The 

effective strategies included providing conditional financial incentives, using a for-profit 

provider for assistance with job-to-job transition, and using individualized services from a 

community-based organization.

Programs for at-risk youth

Job Corps is the largest Federal job training program (by cost) for at-risk youth and young 

adults (ages 16 to 24). It provides education and job training in a residential setting. DOL

conducted a randomized treatment study of Job Corps in the 1990s, finding that Job Corps 

increased schooling, reduced arrests, and increased earnings (Schochet et al. 2001). However, 

Schochet et al. (2008) combine the survey data from the initial report with tax data and find

that the initial earnings gains did not persist except for the older students (20- to 24-year olds).

Later papers estimated that there is a small positive effect after controlling for selection into 

different lengths of treatment (Flores et al. 2012) and non-compliance (Chen and Flores, 2015).

A 20-year follow-up study that uses administrative tax records (Schochet 2018) also found that 

the earnings gains for the older students (20- to 24-year olds) persisted but did not grow over 

the longer period. For the full sample there werestill no long-run earnings gains. Overall, based 
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 17

on the outcomes over 20 years, the report concludes that the program’s benefits do not 

outweigh the costs except for the older students.

The WIA Youth program was not included in the Mathematica study of the WIA Adult and 

Dislocated worker programs. However, there was a randomized study of the Youth program 

under JTPA, the predecessor to WIA. Bloom et al. (1997) present the results of this study. They 

find no earnings effect forthose in the youth treatment group, and negative net benefits overall

for youth.

There are other smaller programs for at-risk youth. YouthBuild is a program that provides 

educational and vocational training services (primarily in construction) while building or 

renovating low-income housing in their neighborhood. A 2018 DOL-funded randomized study 

found that YouthBuild led to improved educational and labor market outcomes (Miller et al.

2018). Similar to the WIA impact study, the labor market gains after 48 months are only seen in 

the survey data and not in the administrative data. The cost-benefit analysis found that the 

positive impacts would need to persist long term for the societal benefits to outweigh the costs. 

YouthBuild has a relatively high cost per participant given the high fixed costs associated with 

the program and the relatively small number of participants.

Apprenticeships

Apprenticeships are a particular model of on-the-job training where individuals work while 

learning a particular trade over an extended period of time. The apprenticeship model has the 

potential to be mutually beneficial to apprentices and firms (Lerman 2014). The firm gains from 

the work output of the apprentice during the time of training. The worker benefits from not 

having to pay the cost of training up front (as is the case with traditional 4-year college) and is 

able to earn a paycheck while participating in training. In the United States, apprenticeship 

programs are most common in the construction industry. The apprenticeship model is more 

commonly used in Europe; apprenticeships were not a core focus of Federal job training 

initiatives until recently. The 2016 President’s Budget was the first to include regular funding 

for grants to promote and expand apprenticeship programs, with DOL setting standards for 

Registered Apprenticeship programs. To be registered with DOL, the programs must combine 

on-the-job and classroom training, and last at least a year. 

There is some evidence that apprenticeships are effective at increasing earnings potential. A 

2012 study of Registered Apprenticeships in 10 States found that they had a large positive effect 

and a positive net societal benefit (Reed et al. 2012). Individuals who completed their training 

earned an average of $240,037 more over their lifetime than nonparticipants after controlling 

for demographic differences at the time of enrollment. The net social benefits were 

conservatively estimated to be more than $49,000 over the course of the apprentice’s career.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 18

The limitation of this study is that it compares those who go through an apprenticeship to 

individuals who appear similar based on their observable characteristics. Without the benefit 

of a randomized study, these studies will generally not be able to control for differences in 

unobserved factors that also affect outcomes. Consequently, this suggests a need for 

additional research using a randomization approach in order to assess the robustness of these 

positive findings on the effectiveness of apprenticeships. Also, the existing studies focus on 

Registered Apprenticeships, and little is known about the effectiveness of other types of 

apprenticeships.

Tax credits and employment subsidies

As discussed in CEA (2018), employers play a major role in providing worker training. Carnevale

et al. (2015) estimated that $1.1 trillion was spent on postsecondary education and worker 

training in 2013. Of that amount, $177 billion was spent by employers on formal training and

an additional $413 billion was spent on informal training, which is a little over half of the total 

spent on education and training.

8 An alternative to having the government directly train 

workers is to incentivize private businesses to provide more of it, which can either be in the 

form of tax credits that cover training expenses or through employment subsidies to encourage 

firms to hire workers who may require additional training. One challenge in designing these 

programs is that firms will claim the tax credits for training they would have done anyway or 

for people they would have hired anyway (Hamersma and Heinrich 2008).

The Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) is a Federal tax credit for firms that hire someone 

from a group that has higher barriers to employment such as those with criminal records or on 

public assistance. Additionally, many States have tax credits to encourage greater employer 

training. Hamersma (2008) finds some evidence of short-term gains for employer tax credits 

but no evidence of improved outcomes long term. While tax credits and hiring subsidies are 

more common in Europe, the evidence of their effectiveness is mixed. Leuven and Oosterbeek 

(2004) looked at the effect of a Dutch tax credit for training workers over 40. They found that

employers just delay the training of workers under 40, and that the tax credit does not increase 

overall training or wages. Since the benefits of training depend on the number of years 

remaining before retirement, the benefits will be low for workers near retirement. Some 

European countries offer tax credits for firms hiring older workers to increase employment 

opportunities that would not require retraining. Boockmann et al. (2012) found limited effects 

of hiring subsidies for older workers in Germany.

 

8 The employer training estimates project forward the costs estimated from the last comprehensive survey on 

employer training programs in 1995. Given the lack of data since the 1995 survey, these amounts should be 

interpreted with some caution.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 19

Effectiveness of employer-provided training

Evaluating the effectiveness of private sector training can help to inform whether government 

money is more effectively spent by providing training directly or by incentivizing the private 

sector to provide the training. The returns to employer-provided training have been studied 

extensively by economists. Similar to evaluating government training programs, those who are 

selected for, or who choose, training differ in unobserved ways from those who do not, and 

these differences, and not the training, could cause a difference in the observed outcome.

Unlike government employment and training programs, non-random methods of causal 

inference have been more successfully applied to studying the returns to employer-provided 

training, as there is variability both across firms and within firms over time that can be 

exploited in order to estimate a causal effect. The estimates of the effectiveness of employerprovided training will differ depending on whether the outcome variable is productivity 

(output) or wages and the type of training being considered. If the employer is providing 

training for specific human capital, we would expect productivity to rise and wages not to rise.

For general training, we would expect both productivity and wages to rise, although wages may 

not rise by as much as productivity.

The wage and productivity returns to employer-provided training have been studied in a wide 

variety of contexts and countries. Studies consistently, but not unanimously, show positive 

and significant effects of employer-provided training. The magnitude of the effects varies 

widely across studies from no significant effect (Goux and Maurin, 2000; Leuvan and 

Oosterbeek, 2008) to very large positive effects. For example, Frazis and Loewenstein (2005) 

find that 60 hours of formal training is associated with a wage increase of 3-4 percent and an 

annualized rate of return on investment of as much as 50 percent once direct costs of training 

are taken into account. Almeida and Carneiro (2009) find that a 10-hour increase in training is 

associated with an increase in productivity of between 0.6 and 1.3 percent. Konings and 

Vanormelingen (2015) find that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of trained workers 

in a firm increases productivity by 1.7-3.2 percent and wages by 1.0-1.7 percent. De Grip and 

Sauermann (2012) conduct a field experiment by providing a training program to a random 

group of workers in a firm. They find that the training program causes a 10 percent increase in

performance, and that there are spillover effects on workers who did not receive the treatment.

Direct comparison between the results of employer-provided and government training 

programs requires some caution. The individuals in government training programs differ 

greatly from individuals who are employed and who either choose to participate in training or 

are selected by the employer for training. Government-provided training seeks to provide 

training that is socially beneficial, but is not optimal for employers to provide given the 

incentives they face. The relevant question is whether employer-provided training would be 

more effective (or would lead to a similar effectiveness at a lower cost) for those currently 
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 20

participating in government training programs if the government could design incentives to 

get employers to train those individuals.

Other programs 

There are a number of other smaller programs that tend to be targeted to specific populations 

that have historically been disadvantaged in the labor market. These include programs for 

Native Americans, people with disabilities, veterans, refugees, active duty military 

transitioning to civilian employment, and institutionalized individuals reentering society. The 

effectiveness of these programs has not been widely studied by outside researchers or within 

government.

One exception is a 2016 DOL-commissioned study of the Reintegration of Ex-Offenders (RExO) 

program (Wiegand and Sussell 2016). RExO provides a variety of services to prisoners 

reentering society. These include mentoring, job training, job search assistance, case 

management, and supportive services. The evaluation study randomly assigned individuals to 

RExO. The study found no evidence of positive impact of RExO on either recidivism or on labor 

market outcomes.

International evidence

Card et al. (2015) conduct a meta-analysis of more than 200 studies in a cross-country context 

that evaluate the effectiveness of active labor market policies. The majority of the included 

estimates of program effectiveness are for employment and training programs in European 

countries. The studies show that the programs significantly increase the probability of 

employment and that the effects become stronger over time. Job search assistance programs 

are more effective at increasing employment in the short term, but training programs are more 

effective at increasing employment longer term. The only type of program that showed no 

evidence of effectiveness is public sector employment programs, and they may even have a 

negative effect. Employment and training programs also appear to have a larger effect during 

recessions. Another meta-analysis from a larger set of studies generally finds similar results,

but does not find significant long-term employment gains for training programs (Vooren, et al. 

2019).

The international evidence agrees with studies for the United States that find that job search 

assistance is effective at getting workers into jobs more quickly and shortening the length of 

unemployment. Even if training programs were more effective in other countries, the United 
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 21

States spends a much smaller share of its GDP on government employment and training 

programs than many other OECD countries. The average OECD country spent 0.54 percent of 

GDP on active labor market programs in 2016. The United States spent 0.11 percent of GDP on 

active labor market policies (2016).

9To achieve the OECD average of spending on employment 

and training programs as a share of GDP, the United States would have had to spend an 

additional $80.44 billion in 2016. However, even if this additional spending improved 

outcomes, it would take a large improvement for the benefits to outweigh the higher costs.10

Summary of research findings

There is mixed evidence on the effectiveness of current government employment and training

programs. Table 3 in the Appendix summarizes the research on the effectiveness of the various 

programs discussed in this report. Although the research on these programs is not conclusive, 

and many of the programs have not been rigorously studied, many studies find small 

employment and earnings effects. Additionally, many studies find no effect or only an effect for 

a specific subgroup or in certain macroeconomic conditions. Job search assistance programs 

appear to be the most successful, while job training programs (with the exception of 

apprenticeships) appear to be largely ineffective. It is an open question whether thecumulative

benefits of these various programs are sufficient to justify their costs. More could be done to 

divert resources to programs that have shown effectiveness, and away from programs that are 

ineffective or are not sufficiently effective given their costs. Many of the programs were 

designed to alleviate general cyclical disruptions in the labor market or specific structural 

problems (e.g., an industry disrupted by trade). It is not clear whether they are able to address 

the general structural changes in the labor market that have resulted from the increase in 

automation and the adoption of new technologies (such as A.I.). The OECD (2019) estimates 

that 10.2 percent of jobs in the United States are at high risk of automation (greater than a 70 

percent chance of being automated). An additional 27 percent of jobs are at risk of significant 

change due to automation. In CEA (2019), we argue that these new technologies are likely to 

be complementary to human labor and that the total number of jobs should not decrease due 

to A.I. However, the types of tasks and jobs and the skills needed to perform them will be 

different and a potentially large number of people will need to be reskilled.

 

9 All active labor market programs is a broader category than the training program spending reported in Figure 2, 

which accounted for approximately 0.092% of GDP in 2016.

10 In the absence of large public investments, the private sector has taken a leading role in worker training in the 

U.S. Increasing public spending on employment and training programs will likely replace some training that 

would have otherwise occurred, causing the total increase in training to rise by less than the increase in publicly 

funded training.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 22

Trump Administration Initiatives and Proposals

The Trump Administration has a number of initiatives and proposals to address the issue of 

worker training programs. The initiatives include increasing government and private sector 

coordination in addressing the skills gap, increasing the use of apprenticeships, expanding 

alternatives to 4-year colleges, and reorganizing and consolidating the various government 

employment and training programs.

In June 2017, President Trump signed an executive order to expand the use of 

apprenticeships.11 As discussed earlier, there is some evidence supporting the effectiveness of 

apprenticeships as a model for worker training. Existing studies suggest that apprenticeships 

can improve employment outcomes, although there have not been any randomized studies.

The executive order established a task force to develop strategies to expand the use of 

apprentices, which included representatives from government, labor, and business. 

The apprenticeship task force issued a report in May 2018 with a number of recommendations

for expanding apprenticeships. The report identified a number of ways that the government 

can help with expanding these programs, such as pursuing strategies that lower the cost of 

technical education, eliminate duplicative training programs and curriculum, and streamline 

industry interaction with the government. The government can also play a role in increasing 

transparency and reducing information frictions by publishing data about sectors with skills 

shortages as well as long-run outcome data for apprentices and training programs. As part of 

the Administration’s apprenticeship expansion initiative, the Department of Labor is now 

working to stand up a new Industry Recognized Apprenticeship Program, which will offer a less 

bureaucratic avenue for industry to stand up new programs.

Another initiative of the Administration is to support alternatives to-4 year colleges. Many 

professions require workers with more than a high school degree, but less than a 4-year college 

degree (or more specialized training than what one would get at a 4-year college program). The 

Administration is proposing to expand Pell Grant eligibility to include shorter-term certificate 

training programs.

12 The Administration also issued an executive order that will provide 

students with program-level outcome data, which will allow students to make more informed 

decisions when making their career choices.13

As a part of the overall government reorganization package, the Administration proposed 

streamlining the Federal employment and training program layout by consolidating programs 

 

11 https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/3245/

12 https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/HEA-Principles.pdf

13 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-is-improving-transparency-andpromoting-free-speech-in-higher-education/
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 23

and reducing the number of agencies involved in their administration (OMB 2018). The GAO 

recommended consolidating programs in their 2011 report to reduce program overlap and to 

remove duplicative administrative procedures. The proposal merges ED and DOL into a single 

agency that would be tasked with ensuring that American workers develop the skills necessary 

to succeed in the workplace. Many of the employment and training programs would be 

merged. The WIOA Adult and Dislocated Worker programs, the Employment Service, and Jobs 

for Veterans State grants would be merged into a single funding stream for Adult Workforce 

Development. The three programs targeting Native Americans would be replaced with a setaside from this new program. Overall, the number of separate employment and training 

programs would go from more than 40 to 16 under the proposal. Removing redundant 

administrative structures would allow more program funding to be spent on the core mission 

of training workers.

Another strategy of the Administration is to better coordinate government efforts with training 

initiatives and the skills needs of the private sector. In July 2018, President Trump signed an 

executive order that established the National Council for the American Worker, which is 

composed of leaders across the executive branch who will work to develop a plan to address 

the skills gap.

14 The goal of the Council is to develop a national workforce strategy to close the 

skills gap. The executive order also established the American Workforce Policy Advisory Board 

which includes representatives from State governments, the private sector, and educational 

institutions. The Board is tasked with advising the Council for the American Worker on steps 

that can incentivize private employers’ and educational institutions’ efforts to address the 

skills gap.

Conclusion

Technology and automation will continue to restructure jobs and the nature of employment in 

the coming years. The challenge for businesses and the government is how to transition from 

the skills of the present workforce to those that will be needed in the future, while also 

providing opportunities for those on the sidelines to gain the skills needed to reenter the 

workforce. While the government offers a wide range of employment and training programs, 

the findings on their effectiveness is mixed, and additional research is needed to identify the

characteristics that contribute to the success of the most effective programs in order to ensure 

that workers are fully benefiting from this spending. Job search assistance programs appear to 

be the most successful, but they only seek to get individuals back to work quickly rather than 

provide them with new skills and training. Government job training programs (with the 

exception of apprenticeships) appear to be largely ineffective. Improvements in government 

 

14 https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/07/24/2018-15955/establishing-the-presidents-nationalcouncil-for-the-american-worker
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 24

workforce and training programs are needed in order to effectively reskill dislocated workers

as well as to provide opportunities for those currently employed to gain additional skills to 

prevent them from becoming dislocated as technological change occurs.

References

Acemoglu, D., J. Pischke. 1998. “Why Do Firms Train? Theory and Evidence.” Quarterly Journal 

of Economics 113 (1). 79-119.

Almeida, R. and P. Carneiro. 2009. “The Return to Firm Investments in Human Capital.” Labour 

Economics 16 (1). 97-106.

Andersson, F., H. Holzer, J. Lane, D. Rosenblum, and J. Smith. 2016. “Does Federally-Funded 

Job Training Work? Nonexperimental Estimates of WIA Training Impacts Using Longitudinal 

Data on Workers and Firms.” CESifo Working Paper No. 6071.

Autor, D., D. Dorn, and G. Hanson. 2013. “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of 

Import Competition in the United State.,” American Economic Review 103 (6). 2121-2168.

Barnow, B, and J. Smith. 2015. “Employment and Training Programs.”NBER Working Paper No. 

21659. http://www.nber.org/papers/w21659

Black, D., J. Smith, M. Berger, and B. Noel. 2003. “Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More 

Effective than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System.” 

American Economic Review 93 (4). 1313-1327. 

Bloom, H., L. Orr, S. Bell, G. Cave, F. Doolittle, W. Lin., and J. Bos. 1997. “The Benefits and Costs 

of JTPA Title II-A Programs: Key Findings from the National Job Training Partnership Act 

Study.” The Journal of Human Resources 32, no. 3 (1997): 549-576.

Boockmann, B., A. Ammermuller, T. Zwick, and M. Maier. 2012. “Do Hiring Subsidies Reduce 

Unemployment Among Older Workers? Evidence from Natural Experiments.” Journal of the 

European Economic Association 10 (4). 735-764.

Card, D., J. Kluve, and A. Weber. 2015. “What Works? A Meta-Analysis of Recent Active Labor 

Market Program Evaluations.” NBER Working Paper No. 21431.

Carnevale, A.P., J. Strohl, A. Gulish. 2015. “College is Just the Beginning: Employers’ Role in the 

$1.1 Trillion Postsecondary Education and Training System.” Center on Education and the 

Workforce. https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED558166.pdf.

CEA (Council of Economic Advisors). 2018. “Addressing America’s Reskilling Challenge.”
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 25

–––2019. “The Economic Report of the President.”

Chen, X., and C. A. Flores. 2015. “Bounds on Treatment Effects in the Presence of Sample 

Selection and Noncompliance: the Wage Effects of Job Corps.” Journal of Business and 

Economic Statistics 33.

De Grip, A. and J. Sauermann. 2012. “The Effects of Training on Own and Co-worker 

Productivity: Evidence from a Field Experiment.” Economic Journal 122 (560). 376-399.

Decker, P., R. Olsen, L. Freeman, and D. Klepinger. 2000. “Assisting Unemployment Insurance 

Claimants: The Long-Term Impacts of the Job Search Assistance Demonstration.” Mathematica 

Policy Research.

Dietz, D., and T. Zwick. 2016. “The Retention Effect of Training – Portability, Visibility, and 

Credibility.” Center for European Economic Research. Discussion Paper No. 16-011.

DOL (Department of Labor) Office of Inspector General. 2018. “Job Corps could not 

Demonstrate Beneficial Job Training Outcomes.” no. 04-18-001-03-370.

https://www.oig.dol.gov/public/reports/oa/04-18-001-03-370.pdf

Flaherty, C. 2007. “The Effect of Employer-Provided General Training on Turnover: Examination 

of Tuition Reimbursement Programs.” Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), 

Discussion Paper No. 06-25.

Flores, C., A. F. Lagunes, A. Gonzalez, and T. Neuman. 2012. “Estimating the Effects of Length of 

Exposure to Instruction in a Training Program: The case of Job Corps.” Review of Economics and 

Statistics 94 (1). 153-171.

Fortson, K., D. Rotz, P. Burkander, A. Mastri, P. Schochet et al. 2017. “Providing Public 

Workforce Services to Job Seekers: 30-month Impact Findings on the WIA Adult and Dislocated 

Worker Programs.” Mathematica Policy Research.

Frazis, H. and M. Loewenstein. 2005. “Reexamining the Returns to Training: Functional Form, 

Magnitude, and Interpretation.” Journal of Human Resources 40 (2). 453-476.

GAO (Government Accountability Office). 2011. “Multiple Employment and Training Programs: 

Providing Information on Colocating Services and Consolidating Administrative Structures 

Could Promote Efficiencies.” GAO-11-92. https://www.gao.gov/assets/320/314551.pdf

–––2019. “Employment and Training Programs: Department of Labor Should Assess Efforts to 

Coordinate Services Across Programs.” GAO-19-200. 

https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/698080.pdf
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 26

Goux, D. and E. Maurin. 2000. “Returns to Firm-Provided Training: Evidence from French 

Worker-Firm Matched Data.” Labour Economics 7. 1-19.

Hamersma, S. 2008. “The Effects of an Employer Subsisdy on Employment Outcomes: A Study 

of the Work Opportunity and Welfare-to-Work Tax Credits.” Journal of Policy Analysis and 

Management 27 (3). 498-520.

Hamersma, S., and C. Heinrich. 2008. “Temporary Help Service Firms’ Use of Employer Tax 

Credits: Implications for Disadvantaged Workers’ Labor Market Outcomes.” Southern Economic 

Journal 1123-1148.

Hamilton, G., and S. Scrivener. 2012. “Increasing Employment Stability and Earnings for LowWage Wage Workers: Lessons from the Employment Retention and Advancement (ERA) 

Project.” MDRC. 

Heinrich, C., and P. Mueser. 2014. “Training Program Impacts and the Onset of the Great 

Recession.” Unpublished manuscript, University of Missouri.

Heinrich, C., P. Mueser, K. Troske, K. Jeon, and D. Kahvecioglu. 2013. “Do Public Employment 

and Training Programs Work?” IZA Journal of Labor Economics 2:6.

Hollenbeck, K. 2009. “Return on Investment Analysis of a Selected Set of Workforce System 

Programs in Indiana.” Report submitted to the Indiana Chamber of Commerce Foundation, 

Indianapolis, Indiana. http://research.upjohn.org/reports/15.

Hyman, B. 2018. “Can Displaced Workers be Retrained? Evidence from Quasi-Random 

Assignment to Trade Adjustment Assistance.” Unpublished Manuscript.

Klepinger, D., T. Johnson, and J. Joesch. 2002. “Effects of Unemployment Insurance WorkSearch Requirements: The Maryland Experiment.” ILR Review 56 (1). 3-22. 

Konings, J. and S. Vanormelingen. 2015. “The Impact of Training on Productivity and Wages: 

Firm-Level Evidence.” Review of Economics and Statistics 97 (2). 485-497.

LaLonde, R. 1986. “Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with 

Experimental Data.” American Economic Review 76 (4). 604-620.

Lerman, R. 2014. “Do Firms Benefit from Apprenticeship Investments?” IZA World of Labor. 

https://wol.iza.org/articles/do-firms-benefit-from-apprenticeship-investments/long. 

Leuven, E., and H. Oosterbeek. 2004. “Evaluating the Effect of Tax Deductions on Training.” 

Journal of Labor Economics 22 (2). 461-488.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 27

–––2008. “An Alternative Approach to Estimating the Wage Returns to Private-Sector Training.” 

Journal of Applied Econometrics 23. 423-434.

Lochner, L. and A. Monge-Naranjo. 2011. “The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human 

Capital.” American Economic Review 101 (10). 2487-2529.

McConnell, S., K. Fortson, D. Rotz, P. Schochet, P. Burkander et al. 2016. “Providing Public 

Workforce Services to Job Seekers: 15-month Impact Findings on the WIA Adult and Dislocated 

Worker Programs.” Mathematica Policy Research.

Miller, C., D. Cummings, M. Millenky, A. Wiegand, and D. Long. 2018. “Laying a Foundation: FourYear Results from the National YouthBuild Evaluation.” MDRC.

Negoita, M., J. Salzman, and A. Wiegand. 2012. “Meta-Analysis of Voucher-Based Employment 

and Training Programs.” Social Policy Research Associates.

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2019. OECD Employment 

Outlook 2019: The Future of Work. https://doi.org/10.1787/9ee00155-en.

OMB (Office of Management and Budget). 2018. “Delivering Government Solutions in the 21st

Century: Reform Plan and Reorganization Recommendations. 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Government-Reform-and-ReorgPlan.pdf

Perez-Johnson, I., Q. Moore, and R. Santillano. 2011. “Improving the Effectiveness of Individual 

Training Accounts: Long-Term Findings from an experimental Evaluation of Three Service 

Delivery Models.” Mathematica Policy Research.

Reed, D., A. Yung-Hsu Liu, R. Kleinman, A. Mastri, D. Reed, S. Sattar, and J. Ziegler. 2012. “An 

Effectiveness Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Registered Apprenticeship in 10 States.” 

Mathematica Policy Research.

Reynolds, K., and J. Palatucci. 2012. “Does Trade Adjustment Assistance Make a Difference?” 

Contemporary Economic Policy 30, no. 1: 43–59.

Schochet, P. 2018. “National Job Corps Study: 20-Year Follow-Up Study Using Tax Data.” 

Mathematica Policy Research.

Schochet, P., J. Burghardt, and S. McConnell. 2008. “Does Job Corps Work? Impact Findings 

from the National Job Corp Study.” Econometrica.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 28

Schochet, P., R. D’Amico, J. Berk, S. Dolfin, and N. Wozny. 2012. “Estimated Impacts for 

Participants in the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) Program Under the 2002 Amendments.” 

Mathematica Policy Research.

Schochet, P., J. Burghardt, and S. Glazerman. 2001. “National Job Corps Study: The Impact of 

Job Corps on Participants’ Employment and Related Outcomes.” Mathematica Policy Research.

Vooren, M., C. Haelermans, W. Groot, and H. M. van den Brink. 2019. “The Effectiveness of Active 

Labor Market Policies: A Meta-Analysis.” Journal of Economic Surveys 33 (1). 125-129.

Wiegand, A., and S. Sussell. 2016. “Evaluation of the Re-Integration of Ex-Offenders (RExO) 

Program: Final Impact Report.” Social Policy Research Associates.

Yousuf, S., and D. Siddqui. 2019. “Factors Influencing Employee Retention: A Karachi Based 

Comparative Study on IT and Banking Industry.” International Journal of Human Resource 

Studies 9, no 1: 42-62. 
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 29

Appendix

Table 3. Government Employment and Training Programs Overview

Program Agency

2017 Budget 

(Millions)

Number 

Served 2017 

(Thousands)

Decription Evaluation Outcome Note

State Vocational 

Rehabilitation 

Services Program

Education 2,899.6 975.4

This program helps individuals 

disabilities to prepare for, obtain, 

maintain, or regain employment.

*

Temporary 

Assistance for 

Needy Families

Health and 

Human 

Services

2,152.6 190.1

This program provides grant funds 

to states and territories to help 

provide financial support and 

other services to families. Other 

services include childcare 

assistance, job preparation, and 

work assistance.

Hamilton and Scrivener (2012) evaluate 12 variations of of the TANF 

employment program targeted at the most employable group. They 

found that only 3 were able to show increases in employment retention 

and advancement. 

Job Corps Labor 1,623.9 48.3

This program offers job training 

and residential educational 

services for youth and young 

adults (ages 16 to 24). 

Schochet, et al (2001) found that Job Corps initially increased schooling, 

reduced arrests, and increased earnings.

Schochet, et al (2008) find that the initial earnings gains did not persist 

except for the older students (20- to 24-year olds). 

Flores et al (2012) and Chen and Flores, 2015) estimated a small positive 

effect after controlling for selection into different lengths of treatment. 

Schochet (2018) found that the earnings gains for the older students (20- 

to 24-year olds) persisted but did not grow over the longer period. For 

the full sample there were still no long-run earnings gains. Overall, based 

on the outcomes over 20 years, the report concludes that the program’s 

benefits do not outweigh the costs but is cost effective for the older 

students and from the perspective of the participants.

DOL (2018) found that 

an accurate evaluation 

of this program would 

be difficult due to poor 

record keeping.

Vocational 

Rehabilitation 

Services and 

Employment 

Program

VA 1,400.0 132.2

This program offers a wide range 

of services to veterans. These 

include job training, skills 

coaching, and resume writing. 

*

WIOA Adult and 

Dislocated 

Worker Programs

Labor

1,017.2 for 

Dislocated 

Worker 

Program

812.8 for 

Adult Worker 

Program

467.5 for 

Dislocated 

Worker 

Program

1,108.2 for 

Adult Worker 

Program

The WIOA Adult and WIOA 

Dislocated Worker programs 

provide the same services but 

have different eligibility 

requirements. The WIOA Adult 

services prioritizes low income 

adults. The Dislocated Worker 

services are available to those 

who are laid off due to a plant 

closure or downsizing, workers 

who were laid off and unlikely to 

find a job in their previous 

occupation, and some other 

groups of dislocated workers. 

Both offer job search assistance 

programs and are designed to 

help match workers to available 

jobs given their current skills, and 

can also pay for job training 

programs.

No significant effect on earnings from training for dislocated workers in 

any of the studies. 

Forston, et al (2017) find that earnings for the Full WIA and the Core and 

Intensive-only groups were significantly higher than the Core-only group 

after 30 months. Using administrative data, the difference in earnings of 

the Core and Intensive-only the Full WIA is not as large after 30 

months.There was no effect of training (Full WIA) on earnings when 

combined with Core and Intensive services for either Adult or Dislocated 

workers for either earnings data source. The cost-benefit analysis using 

the survey data found that intensive services had positive net benefit to 

society as a whole but that training had negative net benefit. 

Andersson, et al (2016) find modest positive effects on earnings and 

employment for adults, but no effect dor displaced workers.

Heinrich, et al (2013) find a moderate positive effect on employment and 

earnings for those in the Adult program with a smaller effect for 

dislocated workers. They find a positive effect of training for those in the 

Adult program and no effect of training for dislocated workers. 

Hollenbeck (2009) finds evidence of a positive impact of WIA on 

employment and earnings in the one state studied (Indiana).

These evaluations 

assess WIA, which was 

replaced by WIOA.
CEA • Government Employment and Training Programs: Assessing the Evidence 

on their Performance 30

Table 3 (continued). Government Employment and Training Programs Overview

Program Agency

2017 Budget 

(Millions)

Number 

Served 2017 

(Thousands)

Decription Evaluation Outcome Note

WIOA Youth 

Program

Labor 867.2 150.4

This program assists both inschool and out-of-school youth 

with barriers to emoployment, 

helping them attain additional 

education and training and 

helping them prepare for 

employment. Services include 

tutoring, paid and unpaid work 

experience, on-the-job training, 

and mentoring. 

Bloom, et al (1997) find no earnings effect for those in the youth 

treatment group, and negative net benefits overall for youth.

This evaluation 

assesses the Youth 

program under JPTA, 

the predecessor to WIA 

(and WIOA).

Wagner-Peyser 

Act Employment 

Service

Labor 666.2 5414.8

This program establishes a 

nationwide system of public 

employment offices known as 

Employment Service centers.

*

Senior 

Community 

Service 

Employment 

Program

Labor 561.2 60.0

This program offers part-time 

employment opportunities for lowincome persons aged 55+. 

Employment opportunities 

including work at community and 

government agencies. 

Participants can also receive 

training services.

*

Trade Adjustment 

Assistance 

program 

Labor 391.4 43.6

This program provides assistance 

to workers who lose their jobs or 

whose hours of work and wages as 

a result of international trade. In 

addition to providing employment 

and training services, individuals 

may also be eligible for income 

support, relocation expenses, and 

job search allowances.

Findings from Schochet, et al (2012) suggests that if there are positive 

effects of training, the returns to training are not large. 

Hyman (2018 WP) finds that TAA is effective at increasing earnings 10 

years out. 

Reynolds and Palatucci (2012) found no impact of TAA on employment 

on average, but did find some positive effects on employment from 

participants in the training component. 

Youthbuild Labor 157.7 6.9

This program provides 

educational and vocational 

training services (primarily in 

construction) while building or 

renovating low-income housing in 

their neighborhood.

Miller, et al (2018) found that the program led to improved educational 

and labor market outcomes, though the labor market gains after 48 

months are only seen in the survey data and not in the administrative 

data. The cost-benefit analysis found that the positive impacts would 

need to persist long term for the societal benefits to outweigh the costs. 

Reintegration of 

Ex-Offenders 

Program

Labor 78.3 12.8

This program helps provide 

training and employment services 

for court-involved youth and 

adults, as well as ex-offender 

adults.

Wiegand and Sussell (2016) find no evidence of positive impact of RExO 

on either recidivism or on labor market outcomes. 

Sources: GAO (2019); Youth.gov; Department of Labor; Workforce GPS; Department of Veteran Affairs; Benefits.gov; Job Corps.

Note: * signifies that CEA has not reviewed evaluations for these programs. The total served for some programs reflects 2016 if 2017 data are unavailable.
ABOUT THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

The Council of Economic Advisers, an agency within the Executive Office of 

the President, is charged with offering the President objective economic 

advice on the formulation of both domestic and international economic 

policy. The Council bases its recommendations and analysis on economic 

research and empirical evidence, using the best data available to support 

the President in setting our nation's economic policy.

www.whitehouse.gov/cea 

June 2019