p.1 

OAR Box 1828 

Prepped by Ollie Stewart 

Document Number: 

159) ll-K-(B)-158 

Docket Number: 

A-83-27 

Printed 11/12/2008 11:12:53 AM Sheet 159 of 325 
/ • y 

'ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, INC. 

1855 NORTH PORT MYER DRIVE ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22209 703/528-1900 

November 7, 1984 

P.2 

A-83-27 

II-K-CB)-158 

Mr. Robert Short 

Economic Analysis Branch 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Mail Drop-12 

Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 

Subject: EPA Contract No. 68-02-3564, Work Assignment #19 

Projected Industrial Fuel Prices 

Dear Robert: 

Attached are several tables which summarize after-tax net present values 

of industrial fuel prices currently used in the industrial boiler S02 

NSPS analysis. These tables are consistent with EEA's report: "Regional 

Forecasts of Industrial Residual Fuel Oil and Natural Gas Prices", July 

1984. 

The procedures used to generate these after-tax NPV's are explained in 

another EEA report: "The Current Basis for Comparing Life Cycle Costs 

in IFCAM for New Industrial Fossil Fuel-Fired Boiler Fuel Choice Decisions", June 10, 1983. 

Sincerely, 

A****- rsto<v*~ 

Tim Hogan ij 

TH/ce 

Enclosures 

cc: Julie Maddox (Radian Corporation) 

Dr. A. Wehe (EPA) 

MANAGEMENT / ECONOMICS / ENGINEERING 
TABLE 1. PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL OIL AND GAS PRICES: 

REFERENCE CASE3 

(1982 $/MMBtu) 

P.3 

1. CVI 3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9, 

10. 

Region 

New England 

New York/New Jersey 

Middle Atlantic 

South Atlantic 

Midwest 

Southwest 

Central 

North Central 

West 

Northwest 

Natural 

gas 

22.14 

21.91 

21.73 

22.64 

22.28 

20.27 

20.64 

18.51 

20.59 

21.13 

Res3.0 

17.90 

17.86 

17.86 

17.79 

18.39 

17.86 

18.28 

17.18 

16.39 

16.25 

idual fuel 

1.6 

19.10 

19.07 

19.07 

18.99 

19.59 

19.07 

19.47 

18.39 

17.60 

17.46 

oil {% S) 

0.8 0.3 

20.50 

20.46 

20.46 

20.38 

20.99 

20.46 

20.86 

19.78 

19.11 

18.95 

21.89 

21.86 

21.86 

21.77 

22.41 

21.86 

22.27 

21.17 

20.36 

20.20 

After-tax net present values used in IFCAM fuel choice decisions for new 

industrial boilers in a 1990 model run. 
P.4 

TABLE 2. PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL OIL AND GAS PRICES: 

HIGHER OIL AND GAS PRICES3 

(1982 $/MMBtu) 

1. CVI 3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

10. 

Region 

New England 

New York/New Jersey 

Middle Atlantic 

South Atlantic 

Midwest 

Southwest 

Central 

North Central 

West 

Northwest 

Natural 

gas 

24.94 

24.91 

24.88 

25.17 

25.28 

23.34 

22.80 

20.34 

22.55 

22.31 

' Res3.0 

23.45 

23.41 

23.41 

23.34 

23.88 

23.41 

23.77 

22.80 

21.86 

21.74 

idual fuel 

1.6 

25.08 

25.03 

25.03 . 

24.98 

25.51 

25.03 

25.41 

24.42 

23.50 

23.37 

oil _% S) 

0.8 0.3 

26.97 

26.94 

26.94 

26.87 

27.41 

26.94 

27.30 

26.33 

25.55 

25.42 

28.77 

28.83 

28.83 

28.76 

29.32 

28.83 

29.20 

28.22 

27.30 

27.16 

After-tax net present values used in IFCAM fuel choice decisions for new 

industrial boilers in a 1990 model run. 
P.5 

TABLE 3. PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL BITUMINOUS COAL PRICES3 

(1982 $/MMBtu) 

Region 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

10. 

New England 

New York/New Jersey 

Middle Atlantic 

South Atlantic 

Midwest 

Southwest 

Central 

North Central 

West 

Northwest 

13.72 

12.77 

11.47 

11.75 

12.12 

12.27 

11.44 

7.24 

10.16 

11.55 

13.58 

12.58 

10.79 

11.02 

11.69 

11.82 

11.20 

6.85 

10.40 

10.88 

13.33 

12.02 

10.47 

10.94 

11.26 

11.75 

11.02 

6.78 

10.17 

10.30 

12.59 

11.41 

10.09 

10.61 

10.72 

11.66 

10.68 

-

-

-

11.66 

10.44 

8.94 

10.22 

9.79 

11.27 

9.47 

-

-

-

11.94 

10.47 

8.83 

9.58 

9.15 

10.76 

8.97 

-

-

-

aAfter-tax net present values used in IFCAM fuel choice decisions for new 

industrial boilers in a 1990 model run. 
P.6 

.»--• 

. '» . 

TABLE 4. PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL SUBBITUMINOUS COAL PRICES3 

(1982 $/MMBtu) 

Region 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

10. 

New England 

New York/New Jersey 

Middle Atlantic 

South Atlantic 

Midwest 

Southwest 

Central 

North Central 

West 

Northwest 

-

-

-

-

12.20 

12.66 

9.91 

5.14 

10.31 

9.67 

-

-

-

-

12.02 

12.29 

9.74 

5.09 

9.95 

9.45 

-

-

-

-

11.93 

12.07 

9.80 

4.66 

9.60 

7.62 

aAfter-tax net present values used in IFCAM fuel choice decisions for 

new industrial boilers in a 1990 model run.