## State of California 

# AIR RESOURCES BOARD

STAFF REPORT

PROPOSED 2003 STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

REVISIONS FOR THE SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN AND COACHELLA VALLEY

Release Date: August 25, 2003 Meeting Date: September 24-25, 2003

The energy challenge facing California is real. Every Californian needs to take immediate action to reduce energy consumption. For a list of simp le ways you can reduce demand and cut your energy costs, see our Website: http://www.arb.ca.gov

.State of California California Environmental Protection Agency AIR RESOURCES BOARD



### STAFF REPORT

PUBLIC HEARING TO CO NSIDER APPROVAL OF PROPOSED 2003 STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN REVISIONS FOR THE SOUTH COAST AIR BASI N AND COACHELLA VALLEY

Air Resources Board Hearing Begins September 24, 2003 at 10:00 a.m. and may continue September 25, 2003 at 8:30 a.m. South Coast Air Quality Management District Auditorium 21865 E. Copley Drive Diamond Bar, California 91765

Hearing notice available at http://www. arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/scsip03/scsip03.htm

Prior to the hearing, the public may subm it written comments through regular mail,

e-mail or fax. To be considered by t he Board, written comments not physically submitted at the hearing must be received no later than 12:00 noon, September 23, 2003 and sent to:

Clerk of the Board Air Resources Board 1001 I Street, 23rd Floor Sacramento, California 95814
or by e-mail to: 2003sip@listserv.arb.ca.gov
or by facsimile transmission to the Clerk of the Board at (916) 322-3928

This report has been reviewed by the staff of the Air Resources Board and approved for publication. Approval does notsignify that the contents nec essarily reflect the views and policies of the Air Resources Board, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.This report and related materials are avail able for downloading from the Air Resources Board’s Internet site at http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm . In addition, written copies may be obtained from the Board’s P ublic Information Office, 1001 I Street, 1 st Floor, Environmental Services Center, Sa cramento, California 95814, (916) 322-2990.
If you are a person with a disability and desire to obtain this document in an alternative format, please contact the Americans with Disabilities Act Coordinator at (916) 323-4916, or TDD (916) 324-9531, or ( 800) 700-8326 for TDD calls from outside the Sacramento area.

QUESTIONS
Ms. Sylvia Oey, Manager Liaison Section Phone: (916) 322-8279 Email: soey@arb.ca.gov Mr. Joe Calavita, Air Pollution Specialist ARB Staff Liaison to the South Coast District Phone: (916) 327-5783 Email: jcalavit@arb.ca.gov

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ARB staff thanks the South Coast Air Qua lity Management District staff for the high level of coordination between the agencies in developing the technical elements of this plan and presenting the draft stra tegies to the public in joint workshops. We would like to recognize Dr. Elaine Chang, Dr. Lak i Tisopulos, Mr. Zorik Pirveysian, and Mr. Joe Cassmassi, who each dedicated many hours to this interagency cooperation.

### Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................ ES-1

I. BACKGROUND ............................................................... 1 A. Profile of the South Coast Air Basin ............................ 1 B. Historical Emissions and Air Quality............................. 1 1. Ozone ......................................................... 2 2. Particulate Matter ........................................... 3 3. Carbon Monoxide .......................................... 3 4. Nitrogen Dioxide ............................................ 3

II. AIR QUALITY PLANNING ................................................. 4 A. Federal Planning Requirements ................................. 4 1. Ozone ......................................................... 4 2. PM10 .......................................................... 5 B. 1994 Ozone SIP ..................................................... 5 C. 1997 Ozone, PM10, CO, and NO2 SIPs ...................... 5 D. 1999 Ozone SIP ..................................................... 6 E. 2002 PM10 SIPs ..................................................... 6 F. 2003 Ozone, PM10, CO, NO2 SIPs ............................ 7

III. 2003 OZONE SIP FOR SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN ............... 8 A. Emission Inventory .................................................. 8 1. Mobile Sources .............................................. 9 a. On-Road ............................................. 9 b. Off-Road ............................................. 10 2. Stationary and Areawide Sources ...................... 10 B. Modeled Ozone Attainment Demonstration .................. 11 1. Air Quality Model ........................................... 12 2. Ozone Episode .............................................. 13 3. Peer Review ................................................. 14 4. Fallback Approach Based on U.S. EPA Action ..... 14 C. Control Strategy ...................................................... 15 1. Local Control Strategy .................................... 16 a. District Progress since 1997/1999 SIP ....... 16 b. Proposed District Measures ..................... 18 c. Structure of District Commitment .............. 25 d. Transportation Strategy ......................... 27 2. State Control Strategy ..................................... 28 a. Progress Since 1994 SIP ........................ 28 b. Proposed State Measures ....................... 30 c. Structure of Proposed State Commitment ... 323. Federal Responsibility ..................................... 33 a. Progress Since 1994 SIP ........................ 33 b. Emissions Contribution ........................... 34 c. New Federal Actions to Reduce Emissions 35 4. Long-Term Strategy ....................................... 35 a. Primary Attainment Strategy .................... 35 b. Alternative Attainment Strategy ................ 38

IV. 2003 PARTICULATE MATTE R SIP FOR SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN .............................................................................. 39

A. Emission Inventory .................................................. 39 1. Inventory Updates ........................................... 40 B. Attainment Demonstration ......................................... 42 C. Control Strategy ...................................................... 44 1. District Control Measures ................................. 44 2. Structure of District Commitment ....................... 48

V. 2003 CARBON MONOXIDE SI P FOR SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN ........................................................................... 49 A. Emission Inventory .................................................. 49 B. Attainment Demonstration ......................................... 50 C. Control Strategy ...................................................... 50

VI. 2003 NITROGEN DIOXID E SIP FOR THE SOUTH COAST ..... 51

VII. 2003 PARTICULATE MATTER SIP FOR COACHELLA VALLEY ......................................................................... 52 A. 2003 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan .............................. 52 1. Emission Inventory ......................................... 52 2. Attainment Demonstration ................................ 52

VIII. ON-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGETS .............. 54

IX. STAFF RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................... 59ES-1 

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Air Resources Board (ARB or Board) will consider approval of a revised State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the South Coast Air Basin at a public hearing on September 24, 2003. This new air quality pl an, adopted by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (District), identifies new clean air strategies needed to bring the region into attainment with federal air qual ity standards for ozone, particulate matter (PM10), and carbon monoxide. As a separate item, the Board will also consider approval of the proposed 2003 State and Federal Strategy that is an essential element of the South Coast SIP. If the Board approves these two items both will be submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S . EPA) for federal approval. ARB staff is recommending Board approval of the Sout h Coast SIP and the State and Federal Strategy as a strengthening of the existing SIP needed to comply with federal Clean Air Act requirements.
Solving the South Coast’s air quality problem , as evidenced by the severity of the 2003 ozone season, requires new actions by ai r quality agencies to ensure the region’s historical clean air progress continues. The South Coast SIP reflects important new near-term commitments by the Dis trict and ARB to achieve emission reductions from air pollution sources under the respective air agen cy jurisdictions. The SIP also recognizes that action by the federal gov ernment is essential to address national and international sources that California can not practically or legally regulate.
In addition to establishing the near-term acti ons to be taken by each agency, the SIP identifies the long-term emission reduction ta rget for ozone that must be achieved by 2010. The long-term target represents 30 percent of the overall reductions needed. The other 70 percent of the necessaryreductions will be achieved through adopted regulations and near-term measures tobe adopted between 2003 and 2006. In the proposed State and Federal Strategy, ARB sta ff has outlined a concurrent process for identifying the long-term measures by 2007 as required by the Clean Air Act. These measures will then be incorporated into the next SIP update.
The South Coast SIP is based on updated air qual ity modeling that is used to establish a 2010 emission target that demonstrates attainment of the federal one-hour ozone standard. Like the other el ements of the SIP, the air quality modeling has undergone substantial public review as well as scient ific peer review. Emission estimates have been improved since adoption of the 1999 Sout h Coast SIP, including substantial revisions to the motor vehicle emission inventory. The updates to motor vehicle emissions have triggered a federal requirem ent to update the “emissions budgets” for purposes of federal transportation conformi ty requirements. New transportation conformity budgets are included in the SIP and must be approved by U.S. EPA in early 2004 to keep transportation funds flowing. In addition, the South Coast SIP includes a revised attainment demonstration for PM10 by 2006 and update to the attainment demonstration for carbon monoxide.ES-2 The South Coast SIP represents significa nt progress on many fronts. The SIP:

• Includes near-term measures to achieve new emission reductions of 87 tons per day (tpd) of volatile organic compounds (VOC ) and 50 tpd oxides of nitrogen (NOx).

• Provides an enforceable commitment to identify and implement long-term measures needed to attain the federal one-hour ozone standard by 2010.

• Demonstrates attainment of the federal PM10 standard in the South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley by the 2006 deadline.

• Uses improved air quality modeling and em ission estimates, and incorporates new growth projections and adopted cont rols into planning baselines.

The ozone attainment demonstration in the SIP is summarized in Table ES-1. The table indicates that existing controls will provide over 60 percent of the emissions reductions needed for attainment in 2010. The SIP includes a District commitment and, if approved by the Board, a State commitm ent for the adoption of additional near-term, “defined” measures that will provide over 70 percent of the needed emission reductions, when combined with already adopted controls.

Table ES-1 Summary of Attainment Demonstration for 2003 Ozone SIP (South Coast Air Basin, tons per day)

VOC NOx VOC + NOx 1997 Baseline Emissions 1222 1165 2381 2010 Attainment Emissions Target 310 530 840 Total Reductions Needed 912 635 1547 Reductions from Adopted Measures 560 404 964 Reductions from Near-Term Measures 87 50 137 Reductions from Long-Term Commitments 265 183 448

The SIP acknowledges thatthe adopted measures, together with the local and State near-term measures, will not reduce emissions enough to result in attainment of the federal one-hour ozone standard by 2010. Likeprior SIPs for this Basin, the 2003 District Plan includes a commitment to achieve additional reductions from longterm measures to be identified by 2007. The federal Clean Air Act recognizes that extreme ozone nonattainment areas, such as the South Coast, must rely on evolving technologies to meet attainment goals. T he South Coast SIP is consistent with this provision of the Clean Air Act, section 182(e)(5).ES-3 The primary issues raised in the proce ss of development and District adoption of the SIP relate to the long-term measures – both the magnitude of the reductions needed and how the responsibility for achieving these reductions is allocated. A key related issue is the uncertainty about what actions the federal government will take to achieve reductions from national and international s ources. Sources requiring federal action account for 33 percent of the NOx emissions remaining in 2010 after taking into account existing requirements and the new near-term measures.
In absolute terms, the magni tude of the reductions needed from long-term measures is greater than in the 1999 South Coast SIP for two reasons. One, the 2010 emissions target is tighter based on more stringent air quality modeling results. Second, our improved understanding of motor vehicle em issions has led to increased emission estimates, which translates into an increased emission reduction target. It’s important to note that an increased emission estimateis not an increase in measured air quality. However, this does trigger a recalibrati on of air quality modeling and the resulting emission reduction target -- in this case, making the emission reduction target greater than in the 1999 SIP. And, given the severi ty of the 2003 ozone season, it is clear that substantial additional emission reductions will be needed in coming years in order to attain the ozone standard in 2010.
ARB staff believes that taking the additiona l time allowed by the Clean Air Act to develop long-term measures is both necessa ry and appropriate. We are committed to initiating that process in early 2004 concurrent with the ARB rulemaking efforts outlined in the proposed State and Federal Strategy. We envision that process as a cooperative multi-agency effort that should focus on i dentifying available and cost-effective longterm strategies. We don’t see a practica l basis for allocating emission reduction responsibilities to specific agencies until that process is complete – which should be as soon as possible but no later than 2007.
While the District plan includes an assignmentof responsibility for long-term reductions by agency, primarily to ARB, we view th is as a placeholder between now and 2007 when long-term measures mustbe defined. However, as the State agency charged with ensuring California’s SIP compliance, AR B is ultimately responsible for ensuring the necessary measures are identified by 2007, and the emission reductions are achieved by 2010. On that basis, we recommend approval of the SIP as proposed by the District.
In terms of the District measures, we propose approval of that plan element which would achieve 22 tons per days of VOC reductions and 5 tons per day of NOx reductions from new near-term measuresand 31 tons per day from long-term measures. Section III of this report discu sses the District measures and identifies areas where we think further assessment is warranted as we work with other agencies to identify long-term emission reduction opportunities.ES-4 We also propose approval of the emissi on reduction commitment by the Southern California Association of Governments (S CAG) – 16 tons per day of VOC and 8 tons per day of NOx. This represents a carryi ng forward of SCAG’s commitment in the 1999 SIP but no additional reductions. Given the challenging long-term emission reduction target for the region, we expect SCAG to actively participate in the process of identifying the innovative long-term strategies t hat will be needed by 2010.
The ARB’s proposed near-term measures woul d achieve an additional 49 tons per day of VOC reductions and 37 tons per day of NOx reductions. This Board commitment is being considered separately for approval as part of the 2003 State and Federal Strategy. The Strategy also discusses m easures that we believe U.S. EPA should pursue in order to meet its obligation toreduce emissions from sources under its jurisdiction, as well as to address international sources.
The District has proposed a new federal obligat ion of 18 tons per day of VOC reductions and 68 tons per day of NOx reductions. Howeve r, given the lack of an explicit federal commitment to achieve additional emission reductions, the District includes a proposal to increase the long-term State emission reduction target correspondingly if the federal government does not meet this obligation. As part of t he State and Federal Strategy, ARB staff is proposing that the Board allo w the federal reductions to be added to the overall State long-term commitment if needed, wit h no modifications to the control target at this time. However, as the process of developing the long-term measures proceeds, we will use every possible means to press our federal counterparts to act where the State and local air agencies cannot.
The District also included in its SIP an opti on for an alternative, less stringent, NOx emission target for 2010. ARB staff does not propose pursuing this option since additional NOx reductions are needed to m eet the State and federal PM2.5 standards. If the Board approves the backstop to a federal commitment described above, this option would not be triggered. Table ES-2 shows the SIP’s ozone attainment demonstration by local, Stat e, and federal jurisdiction.
In summary, ARB staff recommends Board approval of the South Coast’s 2003 State Implementation Plan for submittal to U. S. EPA. The SIP meets Clean Air Act requirements, includes new near-term State and local clean air measures, and recognizes the urgent need to identify and implement the long-term measures needed to attain the federal one-hour ozone standard by 2010.ES-5 Table ES-2 2010 Attainment Demonstration for the 2003 Ozone SIP by Jurisdiction (South Coast Air Basin, tons per day)

VOC NOx Percent of Combined VOC+NOx by Jurisdiction 1997 Baseline Emissions State Local Federal Total 835 298 89 1222 758 128 279 1165 67% 18% 15%

Emission Reductions from Adopted Measures State Local Federal Total -418 -105 -37 -560 -317 -43 -44 -404 76% 15% 8%

2010 Baseline Emissions State Local Federal Total 417 193 52 662 441 85 235 761 60% 20% 20%

Emission Reductions from New Near-Term Measures State District Southern California Association of Governments Federal Total -49 -22 -16

0 -87 -37 -5 -8 0 -50 63% 20% 17%

0
Emission Reductions from New Long-Term Measures Proposed State Commitment for Multi-Agency Effort Local Commitment Federal Obligation Total -216* -31 -18 -265 -113* 0 -68 -181 74% 7% 19%

2010 Attainment Emissions Target 310 530 *The SIP proposes to increase this commitment to 234 TPD VOC and 181 TPD NOx reductions if U.S. EPA does not carry out its legal respons ibilities to achieve newemission reductions.1 I. BACKGROUND

A. Profile of the South Coast Air Basin
The South Coast Air Basin (South Coast or Ba sin) includes the southern two-thirds of Los Angeles County, all of Orange County, and the western, more urbanized portions of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. The area generally forms a lowland plain, bounded by the Pacific Ocean on the west and by mountains on the other three sides. The South Coast is California's largest me tropolitan region. With a population of over 15 million, it is home toabout forty percent of the State’s residents.
The South Coast Air Quality Management District (District) is the local air quality agency responsible for the Basin. The District al so has jurisdiction over the Riverside County portion of the Salton Sea Air Basin (Coachella Valley) and the western portion of the Mojave Desert Air Basin in Riverside County. The Southern Calif ornia Association of Governments (SCAG) is the transportation planning agency for the region. Figure I-1 shows the boundaries of the District, the Basin, and Coachella Valley.
Figure I-1 South Coast Air Quality Mana gement District Boundaries

B. Historical Emissi ons and Air Quality
Despite rapid increases in population and v ehicle miles traveled (VMT), air pollution controls in the Basin have reduced emissi ons of volatile organic compounds (VOC) 1 and nitrogen oxides (NOx) -- the pollutants that fo rm ozone in the presence of sunlight --

1 ARB generally classifies reactive hydrocarbons as reactive organic gases (ROG). The State’s legal commitments for emission reductions are expressed in terms of ROG. But this report uses the classification of volatile organic compounds (VOC), a subset of ROG, for consistency with the District’s terminology in the 2003 Plan. VOC and ROG are function ally equivalent for the purposes of this report.2 by about 45 percent from 1990 to2003. Direct emissions of particulate matter less than or equal to ten microns in diameter (PM 10) have declined by about 15 percent in the same period, and carbon monoxide emissi ons have fallen by over 55 percent. The emission decreases have significantly improved ozone air quality in the Basin. Since the 1980s, the number of days exceedi ng the federal one-hour standard has decreased over 70 percent, and the maximum ozone concentration has decreased over 50 percent. Population exposure to unhealthyair has declined by 80 percent during this same time period.

1. Ozone
The long-term improvement in South Coast ozone air quality, as measured by the maximum one-hour ozone concentration in parts per billion (ppb) and the number of days over the federal one-hour ozone st andard, is shown in Figure 1-2.
Figure I-2 Maximum One-Hour Ozone Concentration and Days Over Federal One-Hour Ozone Standard in South Coast Air Basin (through August 20, 2003)

However, the last few years do not appear to show the sa me improvements as seen in the early 1990s, despite continued emission reductions. The Summer of 2003 has been particularly conducive to ozone formation. By the end of July 2003, the South Coast Air Basin had experience 44 exceedances of the federal one-hour standard, more than were recorded during each of the prior three years. Furthermore, on July 11, 2003, the South Coast experienced its first Stage 1 ozone alert since 1998. A Stage 1 alert is called when ozone concentrations reach or exceed 200 ppb. The alert warns even healthy residents to curtail their outdoor activities. 0 100 200 300 400 500

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2 Maximum One-Hour Ozone Concentration (ppb)

Da ys Over Federal One Hour Ozone Standard3 The variation in ozone air quality is strongly influenced by differences in weather conditions. Years having more days with se vere weather conditions that are conducive to ozone formation have a greater chance of having more days that exceed the standards and higher peak concentrations. These severe weather conditions include hot temperatures, strong invers ion layers, and calm conditions.
Our meteorologists have reviewed meteorol ogical data from 1980 through July 2003. Their analysis indicates that the total num ber of days with high ozone forming potential during 2003 were greater for a comparable per iod of the year (May 1 through July 21) than any other year during the analyzed ti me period (1980- 2003). This may help explain the large number of exceedance da ys in 2003 relative to the past few years.
Furthermore, the weather conditions presentduring the July 11, 2003 episode had not been seen since a similar episode in 1998. It is interesting to note that the 1998 episode had higher peak concentrations than the 2003 episode and was more widespread throughout the Basin than t he 2003 episode. Emission reductions achieved since 1998 have resulted in lower ozone levels on days with severe weather conditions. However, this year’s peak val ues are a clear indication that substantial further emission reductions are needed.

The Basin also exceeds U.S. EP A’s new eight-hour ozone standard.

2. Particulate Matter
Annual average concentrations of PM10 have decli ned by over a third in the Basin since the 1980s. However, the Basin continuesto exceed the federal 24-hour and annual average PM10 standards of 150 μ g/m3 and 50 μ g/m3, respectively. In 2002, the maximum 24-hour PM10 concentration was 130 μ g/m3, while the annual average PM10 concentration was 60.2 μ g/m3.

The Basin also exceeds U.S. EPA’s new fine particulate (PM2.5) 24-hour and annual standards.

3. Carbon Monoxide
Peak eight-hour carbon monoxide (CO) levels in the South Coast Basin have declined by over fifty percent since the early 1980s , due largely to cleaner motor vehicles and fuels. Because the South Coast exceeded the federal carbon m onoxide standard only once during 2001 and 2002, it now meets the cr iteria for attainment. The District has chosen to update the CO attainment demonstration now and accumulate a third year of air quality meeting the standard before preparing a maint enance plan and seeking an official redesignation to attainment.
4. Nitrogen Dioxide
The Basin has attained the federal nitrogen dioxide (NO2) standard since 1991.4 II. AIR QUALITY PLANNING
This chapter briefly reviews the relevant pl anning provisions in the federal Clean Air Act (CAA or Act) and describes recent South Coast plans.
A. Federal Planning Requirements
The CAA establishes planning requirements for those areas that routinely exceed the health-based National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). These nonattainment areas must adopt and implement a State Im plementation Plan (SIP) that demonstrates how they will attain the standards by specified dates. Federal law holds each state responsible for implementing t he provisions of the Act.
California Health and Safety Code (HSC) section 39602 designates the ARB as the State's air pollution control agency for all purpos es set forth in federal law, including the preparation of the SI P. The HSC further specifie s that the ARB must adopt the nonattainment area plan approved by a local district, unless the ARB finds, after a public hearing, that the locally adopted plan wil l not meet the requirements of the CAA (HSC Section 41650(a)). All California SIP revisions must be submitted to U.S. EPA by ARB. The provisions and commitments in a U.S. EPA-approv ed SIP are federally enforceable. The CAA also allows interested parties to sue U.S. EPA, the state, or local agencies to compel implementation of an approved SIP and other provisions of the Act.
The South Coast District customarily prepares a comprehensive plan, approximately every three years, to address both federal and State air quality planning requirements and multiple air pollutants. The Distr ict’s Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) includes elements that are beyond the scope of the federal requirements. Thus, SIP revisions for this region are typically based on a subset of the AQMP -- the technical foundation (monitoring data, emissions, modeli ng) and the local control strategy that addresses progress, attainment, or maintenance of a federal air quality standard. Once approved by ARB, the SIP revision sent to U.S. EPA includes only the elements needed to meet federal requirements, as directed by State law.

1. Ozone
The CAA requires the South Coast Air Basin, as an "extreme" ozone nonattainment area, to provide for attainment of the federal one- hour ozone standard by November 15, 2010. Coachella Valley is part of the Southeast Desert Modified Air Quality Management Area, a “severe-17” federal one-hour ozone nonattainment area with an attainment date of November 15, 2007.
Section 182(c)(2) of the Act requires thatthe SIP establish ozone rate-of-progress milestones for VOC and NOx and demonstrate howthe control strategy meets those interim year targets. In addition, the Act requires the establishment of conformity emission budgets for specific sources like on-road motor vehicles for milestone years. These budgets are used to determine if planned projects that will require federal5 approval or funding, such as freeway improvements or air port expansions, are consistent with the emissions targets in the approved SIP. Ot her Act requirements include transportation control measures to address growth in vehicle travel, and contingency measures to be triggered if progress milestones are not achieved.

2. PM10
As "serious" PM10 nonattainment areas, the South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley were required by the CAA to a ttain the federal PM10 standard by December 2001. These areas did not attain the st andard by the deadline. U.S. EPA granted each area a five-year extension to December 2006, as allowed by the Act. The Act also requires that "serious" PM10 nonattainmentareas adopt Best Available Control Measures (BACM) for fugitive dust sources, and that PM10 plans include motor vehicle emission budgets, reasonable fu rther progress milestones, and contingency measures.

B. 1994 Ozone SIP
In November 1994, California submitted co mprehensive ozone SIP for the South Coast and five other nonattainment areas in Californi a. The control strategy in the 1994 SIP included local commitments to adopt rules and transportation control measures, as well as a statewide element to reduce emissionsfrom mobile source s, fuels, consumer products, and pesticides. In addition to its own commitments, ARB identified emission reduction strategies for sources under federal authority and credited the expected benefits in the attainment demons tration. In the Federal R egister notice approving the 1994 SIP, U.S. EPA argued thatthe State did not have the authority to assign reductions to the federal government. 1 U.S. EPA instead participated in a public consultative process to identify potential st rategies to reduce emissions from sources subject to federal authority.

The District’s 1994 AQMP was the basis for t he local element of the 1994 Ozone SIP for the South Coast Air Ba sin and Coachella Valley.
C. 1997 Ozone, PM10, CO, and NO2 SIPs
In 1996, the District developed and adopt ed the 1997 AQMP, which included:

 An ozone attainment plan for the South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley

 A PM10 attainment plan, and attainment dat e extension request for the South Coast Air Basin from 2001 to 2006

 A carbon monoxide attainment plan for the South Coast Air Basin

 A nitrogen dioxide maintenance plan and redesignation request for the South Coast Air Basin
ARB approved all of these elements and submitt ed them to U.S. EPA as SIP revisions.

1 Federal Register, January 8, 1997 (Volume 62, Number 5); Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; California - Ozone; Final Rules.6 The 1997 Ozone SIP modified the local elem ent of the 1994 Ozone SIP attainment strategy. The plan used new growth projections, emission inventories, and modeling analyses to demonstrate that the ozone standard could be attained in 2010 with fewer emission reductions. As a result, the District deleted or delayed several of the local ozone control measures in the 1994 SIP. ARB did not change the State and federal strategy from the 1994 SIP, but the resulting emission reductions were updated based on the new inventory. U.S. EPA subsequently proposed a partial disapproval of the proposed 1997 Ozone SIP revision, due to the delay or deletion of local control measures and the federal em ission reduction assignment. 1 U.S. EPA approved the carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide elements of the 1997 AQMP in 1998, 2 3but did not act on the 1997 PM10 SIP for the South Coast Air Basin at that time.

D. 1999 Ozone SIP
In September 1997, three environmental groups filed a citizens’ suit to compel implementation of the federally approved 1994 Ozone SIP. As part of a settlement agreement between the District and the plai ntiffs, the District amended the 1997 AQMP in 1999 to accelerate implementation of so me of the stationary short-term control measures. The District submitted the 1999 SI P revision to ARB; ARB approved it and submitted it to U.S. EPA. In 2000, U.S. EPA approved the 1997 SIP as amended in 1999 (1997/1999 SIP) as a revision to the 1994 Ozone SIP. 4

E. 2002 PM10 SIPs

The South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Vall ey both failed to m eet the federal PM10 attainment deadline of 2001. In June 2002, the District updat ed the emission budgets and control measure implementat ion status for the South Coast Air Basin’s 1997 PM10 SIP to facilitate federal approval of the plan and attainment date extension request. That same month, the District also adopt ed the 2002 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan, and requested a five-year PM10 attainment date extension for the Coachella Valley. The District also committed to update the PM10 pl ans for the Basin and Coachella Valley in 2003 utilizing the latest approved motor vehicle emissions model and planning assumptions. ARB approved these revisions and submitted them to U.S. EPA. In April 2003, U.S. EPA approved the 1997 PM10 Plan, 2002 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan, and attainment date extension requests for both areas. 5

1 Federal Register; January 12, 1999 (Volume 64, Nu mber 7); Approval and Promulgation of State Implementation Plans -- South Coast. 2 Federal Register; April 21, 1998 (Volume 63, Numb er 76); Approval and Promulgation of State Implementation Plans -- South Coast Air Quality Management District. 3 Federal Register; July 24, 1998 (Volume 63, Nu mber 124); Approval and Promulgation of State Implementation Plans and Redesignat ion of the South Coast Air Basin in California to Attainment for Nitrogen Dioxide. 4 Federal Register; April 10, 2000 (Volume 65, Numb er 69); Approval and Promulgation of State Implementation Plans -- South Coast. 5 Federal Register; April 18, 2003 (Volume 68, Numb er 75); Approval and Promulgation of State Implementation Plans -- South Coast.7 F. 2003 Ozone, PM10, CO, NO2 SIPs
On August 1, 2003, the District Governing Board adopted its 2003 AQMP that included elements intended to revise the South Coas t Air Basin SIPs for ozone, PM10, CO, and NO2, as well the Coachella Valley SIPs fo r ozone and PM10. The District submitted all of these plans to ARB with a request for approval and forwarding to U.S. EPA as SIP revisions. We are proposing that the B oard consider approval of each element, collectively referred to as the 2003 Plan in this document, with the exception of the Coachella Valley Ozone SIP revision.
Just prior to publication of this report, we found that the Coachella ozone plan does not contain the required motor vehicle emissi on budgets for transportation conformity. Without the updated budgets, the Coachella ozo ne plan is incomplete and we could not recommend Board approval. We expect t hat the District will adopt and transmit the needed budgets to ARB for subsequent submittal to U.S. EPA.
Because Coachella Valley is one of three subregions in the Southeast Desert ozone nonattainment area, the other subregions (A ntelope Valley and Mojave Desert) must also adopt and submit a revised attainment demonstration, including vehicle emissions budgets, before we can provide U.S. EPA with a complete package for the nonattainment area. These other areas are working on SIP revisions for local adoption in early 2004. As long as ARB receivesadopted ozone budgets for Coachella Valley by then, we do not expect this issue to delay U.S. EPA action on the comprehensive Southeast Desert budgets or SCAG’s ability to make conformityfindings for the upcoming 2004 Regional Transportation Plan.8 III. 2003 OZONE SIP FOR SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN

To demonstrate attainment of the one- hour ozone standard, the 2003 Plan relies on new emission reductions to be achieved at the lo cal, State, and federal level. ARB staff provided the draft State and federal strategy to the District so the public could see all the elements of the control strategy in one place. As a separat e item, the Board will consider approval of the proposed 2003 State and Federal Strategy that is an essential element of the South Coast Ozone SIP.

The District submitted the 2003 Plan to ARB fo r its consideration on August 7, 2003. If ARB approves both the State and local element s, the overall plan can be submitted to U.S. EPA as a SIP revision. If approv ed by U.S. EPA, the 2003 Ozone SIP would replace the existing 1997/1999 Ozone SIP, and the State commitments that were originally made as part of the 1994 Ozone SIP. This chapter provides staff's evaluation of the 2003 Ozone SIP emission inventory, attainment demonstration, and control strategy for the Basin.
A. Emission Inventory

Emission inventories are fundam ental elements of any air quality plan. They combine data about existing emissions with growth forecasts and the impact of adopted regulations to project emission levels in fu ture years. The 2003 Plan utilizes the latest emission estimates for stationary, area-wide, and on- and off-road mobile sources. This updated inventory reflects im proved methodologies for estimating emissions, recently adopted controls, the latest growth projecti ons, previously uninventoried sources, and other improvements.
VOC and NOx emissions are projected to decline by about 40 percent between the 2003 Plan’s 1997 base year, and the and the 2010 oz one attainment year, as a result of controls that have already been adopted. This reflects a 30 percent decline in emissions from stationary and area-wide s ources, a 49 percent decline in emissions from on-road motor vehicles, and a 32 perc ent decline in emissions from off-road vehicles and equipment. Tables III-1 shows the breakdown of VOC and NOx emissions by broad source category in 1997 and 2010, with the benefit of adopted controls.
The rapid decline in on-road motor vehicles emissions is due to regulations to reduce emissions from new cars and trucks and fuels. By 2010, new cars will be 99 percent controlled, while new trucks will be at 98 percent control. Pre-1998 passenger cars will account for just 23 percent of vehicle miles traveled by cars in the South Coast in 2010, but will contribute 82 percent and 67 percentof the passenger car VOC and NOx, respectively.9 Table III-1 2003 Plan Baseline Emissions Trends (South Coast Air Basin Summer inventory in tons per day)

VOC NOx VOC + NOx Source Category 1997 2010 1997 2010 1997 2010 % Change Stationary & Area-wide 443 315* 128 85** 571 400 -30%

On-Road Motor Vehicles 506 208 717 411 1223 619 -49%

Off-Road Vehicles/Equipment 273 139 320 265 593 404 -32%

TOTAL 1222 662 1165 761 2387 1423 -40 * Includes 5.0 tpd VOC added to the stationary so urce baseline emission inventory -- 3.0 tpd for future technology assessments, and 2.0 tpd fo r the phase-out of toxics and ozone depleting compounds. Future technology assessments to occur prior to implementation of adopted District rules may scale back emission reductions achiev ed by 2010. The phase-out of toxics and ozone depleting compounds may result in increased VOC emissions from substitute products. ** Includes 3.0 tpd NOx added to stationary so urce baseline emission inventory -- 2.0 tpd for technology assessments and 1.0 tpd for the District "growth set-aside". See section entitled "Growth Set Aside" (below) for more information. The following sections discuss updates to the mobile, stationary and area-wide source inventories since the 1997/1999 SIP, and prov ide ARB staff's analysis of the VOC and NOx 2003 Plan inventory.

1. Mobile Sources

The mobile source emission inventor ies used in the 2003 Plan represent many improvements in the models t hat are used to estimate emissions from both on-road and off-road sources. As a result, our esti mates of the emissions generated by mobile sources have increased significantly relative to those used in the 1997/1999 SIP. These higher estimates do not indicate that emi ssions are increasing over time – on the contrary, actual emissions from carsand trucks have declined and will continue to decline rapidly over time. This progre ss comes in response to State and federal requirements for cleaner engines and fuels, and des pite significant growth in population and vehicle usage.

a. On-Road

California's new on-road motor vehicle emi ssion factor model (EMFAC2002) has been used to generate the on-road mobile source emission inventory for the 2003 Plan. EMFAC2002 represents a comprehensive reviewand revision of the on-road inventory when compared to EMFAC7G, which was used in the 1997/1999 SIP. The major changes reflected in EMFAC2002 include:10  New passenger vehicle and truck standards

 Updated light-duty vehicle emission estima tes based on additional vehicle testing

 County-specific light-duty fleet information

 Updated light-duty fleet age distribution derived from new Department of Motor Vehicle data

 Improvement of evaporative emission estimates for light-duty vehicles

 Updated estimates of Smog Check benefits

 Heavy-duty truck emissions from new cycle-based chassis dynamometer testing

 Heavy-duty truck "off-cycle" emissions due to emission control defeat devices

 New estimates of truck idling emissions

The 1997/1999 SIP utilized EMFAC to calculate the benefits of mobile source controls, and CalTrans' Demand Travel Impact Model (DTIM) to generate the mobile source planning and modeling inventor ies, and mobile source emission budgets. The 2003 Plan utilizes EMFAC2002 as t he primary tool for all of these purposes. Because the EMFAC model does not spatiallydistribute emissions below the county level, DTIM is used in the 2003 Plan to allocate each county 's EMFAC-based inventory into grid cells for air quality modeling. This new approach to mobile source emissions will provide greater consistency among t he inventories used for planning, modeling, control measure quantification, rate-of-progress det erminations, vehicle emission budgets, and transportation conformity analyses. ARB staff appreciates the cooperation of the District and SCAG in making this transition.

b. Off-Road
The 2003 Plan is also the first South Coast plan to use ARB's OFFROAD model to generate off-road mobile source emissions. The OFFROAD model represents a step forward from the inventory methodologies used in the 1997/1999 SIP. The OFFROAD model utilizes improved estimates of equi pment population, usage, emission rates, deterioration rates, and other information toprovide seasonal and annual emissions for most categories of off-road mobile s ources. The OFFROAD model has also been updated to include evaporative emission estima tes for the first ti me. Emissions from ships, aircraft, trains, and recreational vehi cles are still estimated outside this model.
2. Stationary and Areawide Sources
Stationary and area-wide sources include industrial sources like factories, refineries, power plants, and smelters; commercial s ources like gas stations, dry cleaners, and paint spray booth operations; and residential sources like fireplaces, water heaters and house paints. Responsibility for reducing em issions from these sources rests with the District, except for consumer products and aerosol paints (under ARB jurisdiction), and gas stations (responsibility shared by ARB and District).
Growth Projections The growth assumptions used to estimate future emissions are a critical element in any attainment demonstration plan -- they directly impact the amount of emission reductions needed to reach the emissions target.11 State law requires the District to utiliz e population growth and economic projections developed by SCAG in its plans and emission projections. Emission projections for stationary and area-wide sources in the 2003 Plan are based on source-specific "growth factors" from the SCAG Growth Forecast. The SCAG growth factors are generally a function of growth in each sector's output, as determined by employment and productivity forecasts. A "control factor" is applied to the grown emissions to account for the application of adopted emission controls.
ARB staff used an ARB-contracted report prepared by E.H. Pechan & Associates 1 (Pechan) to provide an independent check on the SCAG growth projections that underlie the 2003 Plan. The Pechan report includes comprehensive growth data for stationary and area-wide sources, based on regression analysis and other analytical assessments. This independent data was us ed to generate a 2010 emission inventory for comparison to the inventory in the 2003 Plan. While there was some variation in emissions for specific source categories, the overall 2010 projections differed by only one percent for ROG and less than five percent for NOx. 2

Growth Set-AsideThe District's New Source Review (NSR) program requires that all emission increases from new or modified la rge stationary sources be fully offset, and that these sources install the Best Ava ilable Control Technology (BACT). The 2003 Plan establishes a "growth set-aside" of 1 tpd NOx, SOx, CO and PM10 in the 2010 baseline inventory to address a projected shortage in the stationary source emission offsets needed to accommodate economic growth . The overall control strategy must compensate by reducing each of these pollutant s by an extra ton per day. Since these emissions were accounted for in the attain ment demonstration, AR B concurs that they are available for use in the District's NSR program.

B. Modeled Ozone Attainment Demonstration
The Act requires the use of air quality mode ling to assess whether the control strategy in a proposed SIP, and the resulting emission reductions, will lead to attainment of the ozone standard. The attainment demonstration determines the optimal "carrying capacity" or attainment emissions target -- the combination of VOC and NOx emission levels that the Basin can accomm odate while attaining the standard.
ARB and South Coast staff have worked toget her closely on the ozone modeling for this Plan, including development of the modeling inventory and other inputs, analysis of model performance, and validation of the ozone attainment demonstration. Attainment of the ozone standard was demonstrated through an iterative proc ess. First, emissions and meteorological inputs for the August 5- 6, 1997 episode were fed into the model,

1 E. H. Pechan & Associates, Development of Emission Growth Surrogates and Activity Projections Used in Forecasting Point and Area Source Emissions, Final Report , February 26, 2001. 2 NOx sources in the District's Regional Clean Air Incentives Program (RECLAIM) were not included in this analysis.12 and the model's ability to replicate observ ed ozone concentrations was analyzed. The model was then run using a "baseline" 2010 inventory to generate isopleth (or contour) lines delineating the combi nations of across-the-board VOC and NOx reductions that are predicted to result in attainment. Fi nally, emission reductions from the specific sources and commitments proposed in the Plan were incorporated into the modeling to demonstrate attainment. The 2003 Plan also addresses transport of ozone and ozone precursors from the Basin to Coachella Valley, Mojave Desert, and Antelope Valley, and demonstrates that these downwind areas a ttain the federal one-hour ozone standard by their 2007 deadline.

The 2003 Plan utilizes the Urban Airshed M odel (UAM) used in the 1994 and 1997/1999 SIPs with a new August 5-6, 1997 ozone episode to demonstrate attainment in both the Basin and the downwind areas. An Augus t 27-28, 1987 episode, evaluated in the 1994 and 1997/1999 SIPs, was also assessed to provide a link to previous modeling evaluations. Table III-2 provides a compar ison of the 2003 Plan carrying capacity and other modeling parameters with those of previous South Coast SIPs.

Table III-2 Modeling Results for Recent South Coast Ozone SIPs

Attainment Emissions Target

(tpd) Plan Primary Episode 3-Year Design Value *

(ppb) Peak Concentration

Observed in Episode

(ppb) Peak Concentration

Predicted by Model**

(ppb) VOC NOx 1994 SIP June 5-7, 1985 360 360 223 323 553 1997/1999 SIP June 23-25, 1987 350 240 211 413 530 2003 Plan August 5-6, 1997 215 187 199 310 530 * The design value reflects the fourth highest observed ozone level in an area over the three year period up to and including the year of the primary episode day. A design value of 124 ppb or less equals attainment. * The peak observed and predicted concentrations do not necessarily occur at the same location. 1. Air Quality Model

ARB staff concurs with the use of the UAM as the primary air quality model for the attainment demonstration. ARB and Dis trict staff conducted extensive model performance evaluations with three air qual ity models -- the UA M, the California Photochemical Grid Model (CALGRID), and the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). While each of t hese models met U.S. EPA model performance guidelines to varying degrees on different episode days, UAM was best able to simulate the unpaired peak concentration during the A ugust 5, 1997 episode. The District also conducted a "mid-course evaluation" of UAM performance, validating the ability of the model to replicate peak ozone concentrat ions observed during the Summer of 2002.13 While CALGRID and CAMx are considered the more state-of-the-art models, CALGRID tended to underestimate peak ozone concentrations in the Basin. However, when the CALGRID modeling results for August 5, 1997 are adjusted to reflect model underprediction, CALGRID and UAM produce similar carrying capacity estimates. CAMx was not utilized in the attainment demonstration as model performance in the Basin was inferior to that of both UAM and CALGRID. However, CAMx continues to be a robust model that has performed well in No rthern California simulations. ARB staff will continue working with both CAMx and CA LGRID with the expectation that these may be used in future South Coast plans.
2. Ozone Episode

ARB staff also concurs with selection of August 5-6, 1997 as the primary ozone episode to define the ozone attainment targets. This episode allo wed for the use of detailed meteorological, air quality, and emissions data collected during the 1997 Southern California Ozone Study (SCOS97). SCOS97 was an intensive field study co-sponsored by ARB, U.S. EPA, the U.S. Navy, South Coast District, and other air districts to better understand how ozone is formed in Sout hern California, and to support the development of effective strategies to reduc e ozone. With the help of this detailed data, the August 1997 episode provides for the best overall air quality model performance, as judged by its ability to simulate the peakozone concentration and other parameters.
Three other ozone episodes were considered but not selected for the attainment demonstration in the 2003 Plan.

 A July 14-18, 1998 ozone episode was exclude d from the attain ment demonstration, as it represents severe and infrequent me teorological conditions. ARB staff's analysis indicates this level of ozone-forming potential occurs once every four to five years. Because attainment of the f ederal ozone standard is based upon the fourth highest ozone level over a three-year peri od, the federal stan dard does not require modeling for attainment during the most severe meteorological events. The peak measured one-hour ozone concentration of 244 ppb on July 14-18, 1998 also exceeds the area's design value for that y ear. ARB and District staff agree that this episode is not appropriate for use in the attainment demonstration.

 A September 28-29, 1997 week end episode was also eval uated, but did not meet U.S. EPA model performance criteria and was therefore also excluded. ARB staff will continue working to better understand weekend emissions and ozone formation, with the goal that a weekend episode can be used in a future South Coast SIP.

 Finally, an August 27-28, 1987 episode -- al so included in the existing 1997/1999 SIP -- was retained as part of the 2003 Pl an modeling analysis to supplement the 1997 episode and provide a link to the previous SIP.14 3. Peer Review

The South Coast District retained seven techni cal experts to help determine which air quality model and episode day provide the mosttechnically sound foundation for the Plan. 1 Overall, the peer reviewers concurred that the technical approach for the air quality modeling used by District and ARB staff was reasonable. The reviewers generally supported use of August 5-6, 1997 asthe primary modeling episode, as long as model under-prediction of peak ozone concentrations (which occurs with use of the CALGRID and CAMx models) is addressed. T he reviewers were divided as to whether UAM or CALGRID would provide the most s ound attainment demonstration. While they generally acknowledged CAMx to be a state- of-the-art air quality model, none of the peer reviewers recommended its use for this Plan.
4. Fallback Approach Based on U.S. EPA Action
The 2003 Plan includes an "Option 1" carryi ng capacity of 310 tpd VOC and 530 tpd NOx, and an "Option 2" carrying capacity of 310 tpd VOC and 598 tpd NOx. The 530 tpd NOx emissions target in Option 1 was selected to ensure no backsliding from the 1997/1999 SIP NOx target, and to ens ure steady progress towards PM2.5 standards that will require addi tional NOx control. Option 2 includes 68 tpd of NOx reductions that, under Option 1, would be achi eved from sources under federal control. U.S.EPA has indicated that it will not accept a plan that assigns emission reductions to federal sources. Because the model respons e is insensitive to NOx reductions in the range between 598 tpd and 530 tpd, both the Option 1 and Option 2 emission targets demonstrate attainment in combination wit h 310 tpd VOC emissions. Table III-3 shows the maximum projected concentration in 2010 for each of the modeled episode days, using both Option 1 and Option 2 NOx emission levels.

Table III-3 Attainment Demonstration Options for 2003 Ozone SIP (South Coast Air Basin, 2010)

UAM Predictions of Maximum Ozone Levels in ppb Episode Day With Baseline Emissions With Controlled Emissions-Option 1 Federal Reductions With Controlled Emissions-Option 2 No Federal Reductions August 5, 1997 153 123 123 August 6, 1997 146 120 124 August 27,1987 120 98 98 August 28, 1987 136 111 112

1 Peer reviewers were: Dr. C.S. Burton (retired); Dr. Ju dith Chow, Desert Research Institute; Dr. Robert Harley, University of California atBerkeley; Mr. Frederick Lurmann (Sono ma Technology, Inc.); Dr. Edwin Meyer (retired); Dr. John Seinfeld, California Inst itute of Technology; and Dr. Mel Zeldin (retired).15 C. Control Strategy
If approved, the 2003 Plan will commit the Distr ict, SCAG, ARB, and BAR to achieve an additional 87 tpd VOC and 50 tpd NOx reducti ons from new near-term control measures for State and local implementation. These newmeasures represent the next iteration of controls needed to attain the federal one- hour ozone standard in 2010, and continue progress towards the more health-prote ctive State standards and new federal standards. Due to concerns expressed byU.S. EPA, no near-term federal control measures are included in the 2003 Plan.
The 2003 Plan also benefits from nearly 1, 000 tpd of combined VOC and NOx emission reductions that will be realized between 1997 and 2 010 as a result of controls that are already on the books. Adopted controls and proposed new measures together account for over 70 percent of the emission reductions needed to attain the federal one-hour ozone standard over the course of this plan. As allowed byCAA Section 182(e)(5), the 2003 Plan also relies on long-term new technology measures, to be identified by 2007, to achieve the remaining 30 percent of needed reductions.
Upon approval by ARB and U.S. EPA, t he State and local VOC and NOx emission reduction commitment in the 2003 Plan would replace the control strategy in the 1997/1999 SIP. This section includes ARB sta ff's evaluation of the control elements, including clarifications to the State and federal strategy, and suggestions for District evaluation that may help achieve additiona l benefits to meet t he region’s long-term emission reduction needs.16 Table III-4 Control Strategy for 2003 Ozone SIP (South Coast Air Basin, Summer Planning, tons per day)
VOC NOx Emissions 1997 baseline emissions 1222 1165 2010 attainment emissions target 310 530 Reductions Total emission reductions needed for attainment 912 635 Emission reductions from adopted measures 560 404 Percent of needed reductions from adopted measures 61% 64% Emission reductions from near-term defined measures State District SCAG TOTAL 49 22 16 87 37 5 8 50 Total emission reductions from adopted and near-term measures 647 454 Percent of needed reductions from adopted/near-term measures 71% 71% Reductions from long-term measures District commitment Federal responsibility Proposed State overall commitment for multi-agency effort TOTAL 31 18 216 265 0 68 113 181
1. Local Control Strategy
The District is primarily responsible for controlling emissions from stationary and areawide sources (with the excepti on of consumer products). The District can also require cleaner local vehicle fleets, but not set engine standards. In coordination with local agencies, SCAG is responsible for desi gning the region’s transportation system, including measures to reduce motor vehicl e activity and emissions. The District, the Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Re view Committee, and SCAG also control extensive public funding to mitigate the ai r quality impact of vehicle emissions.
a. District Progress since 1997/1999 SIP
The District adopted measures to achieve about seventy percent of its commitments from the 1997/1999 SIP. In the 1997/1999 SIP, the District committed to achieve 48.1 tpd VOC reductions from short- and in termediate term measures and 28 tpd VOC reductions from long-term measures. Between October 1999 and October 2002, the District adopted measures achieving 50 t pd VOC reductions by 2010, and has a remaining long-term SIP commitm ent of 26.1 tpd VOC. The District met its 7.6 tpd NOx commitment by adopting measures to achi eve 7.8 tpd NOx reductions. Table III-5 shows the District's 1997/1999 SIP measure commitments and reductions achieved.17 Table III-5 District Progress on 1997/1999 Ozone SIP Commitments (As of October 2002, based on 1997/1999 SIP invent ory, Summer planning, tons per day in 2010)

VOC Reductions NOx Reductions Control Measure/Rule Title Adoption Date Planned Actual Planned Actual CTS-02C(P2) (Rule 1171) Solvent Cleaning Operations 1999 11.0 11.0*

-- -- CTS-02E (Rule 1168) Adhesives 2000 1.3 8.3

-- -- CTS-02O (Rule 442) Solvent Usage 2000 1.0 1.9

-- -- CTS-07(P3) (Rule 1113) Architectural Coatings and Cleanup Solvents -- 9.8

-- -- -- CTS-08(P1) (Rule 1130) Industrial Coatings and Solvents 2002 2.0 1.9

-- -- CTS-08(P2) (Rule 1122) Solvent Degreasing 2001 3.0 6.2

-- -- CTS-09(P1) (Rule1132) High Emitting Spray Booth Facilities 2000 4.0 5.4

-- -- CTS-09(P2) (Rule 1162) Polyester Resins 2002 3.0 1.6

-- -- FUG-05(P1) (Rule 1178) Large Fugitive Sources 2001 1.0 1.7

-- -- FUG-05(P2) Large Fugitive Sources 2002 1.0

-- -- -- FUG-05(P3) Large Fugitive Sources

-- 1.0

-- -- -- FUG-06 (Rule 1189) Hydrogen Plants 2000 0.8 1.6

-- -- RFL-02(P2) (Rule 461) Gasoline Service Stations 2000 2.0 6.2

-- -- PRC-03(P2) (Rule 1138) Restaurant Operations

-- 0.9

-- -- -- PRC-06 (Rule 1131) Industrial Processes – Food Flavoring 2001 3.0 3.0

-- -- WST-01 (PR 1127) Livestock Waste

-- 3.3

-- -- -- WST-04 (Rule 1150.1) Disposal of VOC-Containing Materials 2000 0.8 0.8

-- -- ADV-CLNG Solvent Cleaning and Degreasing

-- 16.0

-- -- -- ADV-CTS Miscellaneous Industrial Coating and Solvent Operations -- 6.0

-- -- -- ADV-FUG Fugitive Emissions

-- 5.0

-- -- -- ADV-PRC Industrial Process Operations

-- 1.0

-- -- -- Rule 1102 Non-Perc Dry Cleaners 2000

-- 0.3

-- -- Rule 1104 Wood Flat Stock Coating 1999

-- 0.1

-- -- CMB-06 Residential Type Natural Gas Fired Water Heaters 1999 0.0

-- 7.6 7.6

Rule 1146 Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters 2000 0.0

-- -- 0.2
TOTAL 76.1 50 7.6 7.8 REMAINING COMMITMENT FROM 1997/1999 SIP 26.1 (0.2) * An additional 16 tons of VOC reductions from Rule 1171 are subject to technology assessments prior to rule implementation in 2005 and are not included in this value, but are included in the 2010 baseline.18 b. Proposed District Measures

The 2003 Plan indicates that the District's strategy in developing the proposed local control measures was to: "1) meet, at a minimum, the same remaining emission reductions committed to in the 1997/1999 SIP fo r the District portion; 2) replace the long-term measures with more specific s hort-term measures, where feasible; and 3) identify new control measures to implement all feasible measures."

The 2003 Plan includes a District commitment to achieve 52.5 tpd VOC and 5.1 tpd NOx reductions from new measures or approved inventory changes. This includes a near-term commitment for 21. 5 tpd VOC reductions from defined measures and a 31 tpd VOC long-term commitment. Table II I-6 lists the emissions inventory and expected reductions for the District's near-term VOC and NOx control measures.

The District's defined measures will continue progress in the near-term. Because of the need for an additional 265 tpd VOC and 181 tpd NOx from long-term measures, ARB staff has identified some opportunities that may allow the District to achieve additional emission reductions to meet the region’ s long-term attainment target. These suggestions are generally based on development efforts in other districts and published information on possible rule effectiveness improvements. Given t he magnitude of the long-term emission reduction needed, staff believes these opportunities should be assessed as potential long-term strategies, al ong with additional stra tegies for sources under State and federal jurisdiction.19 Table III-6 District Near-Term Control Measures for 2003 Ozone SIP (South Coast Air Basin, Summer planning, tons per day in 2010)
Measure VOC NOx Inventory Reductions Inventory Reductions REMAINING 1997/1999 SIP CONTROL MEASURES CTS-07: Architectural Coatings and Cleanup Solvents (VOC) 28.3 8.5

-- -- CTS-10: Miscellaneous Industrial Coatings & Solvent Operations (VOC) 16.3 3.0

-- -- FUG-05: Fugitive Sources (VOC) 15.0 2.0

-- -- MSC-01: Promotion of Lighter Color Roofing & Road Materials & Tree Planting Programs (All Pollutants) -- TBD

-- -- MSC-03: Promotion of Catalyst-Surface Coating Technology (All Pollutants) -- TBD

-- --
PRC-07: Industrial Proc ess Operations (VOC) 16.9 2.0

-- -- WST-01: Livestock Waste (VOC) 11.0 4.8

-- -- WST-02: Composting (VOC) 6.8 1.2

-- -- FSS-04: Emission Charges of $5,000 per Ton for Large Stationary Sources (VOC) -- TBD

-- -- FLX-01: Economic Incentive Programs (All Pollutants)

-- TBD

-- -- NEW SIP CONTROL MEASURES CMB-10: NOx RECLAIM (NOx)

-- -- 35.7 3.0 MSC-05: Truck Stop Electrification (NOx) 0.14

-- 2.5 2.1 MSC-07: Natural Gas Fuel Specifications (NOx)

-- TBD

-- -- MSC-08: Large VOC Sources (VOC)

-- TBD

-- -- FSS-05: Mitigation Fee Program for Federal Sources (All Pollutants) -- TBD

-- -- FSS-06: In-Use Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment (All Pollutants) -- TBD

-- -- FSS-07: Emission Fee Program for Port-Related Mobile Sources (All Pollutants) -- TBD

-- -- TOTAL 94.3 21.5 38.2 5.1

CTS-07: Architectural Coat ings and Cleanup Solvents This measure would achieve additional emission reductions from District Rule 1113 by establishing lower VOC limits for cleanup and thinning solven ts, and for specified categories of architectural coatings including clear w ood finishes, exterior opaque stains, semitransparent stains, sanding sealers, and waterproofing sealers.20 CTS-10: Miscellaneous Industrial Coating and Solvent Operations This measure would require a further assessment of emissi ons from miscellaneous industrial coating and solvent operations, and a technical asse ssment of further emission reduction opportunities. The measure could utilize re formulation, control equipment, or other strategies to reduce emissions from vari ous industrial coatings and from aerospace handwipe operations, alcohols used in m anufacturing and clean room operations, lubricants, and other solv ent operation categories. ARB staff suggests that the District reviewthe following rules for further emission reduction potential in the assessment phase of CTS-10: Rule 481 (Spray Coating Operations); Rule 1104 (Wood Flat Stock C oating Operations); Rule 1107 (Coating of Metal Parts and Products); Rule 1122 (Solvent Degreasers); Rule 1125 (Metal Container, Closure, and Coil Coating Operat ions); Rule 1126 (Magnet Wire Coating Operations); Rule 1130 (Graphic Arts); Rule 1132 (High-Emitting Spray Booth Facilities); Rule 1145 (Plastic, Rubber, and Glass Coating); Rule 1171 (Solvent Cleaning Operations). Further emission reductions may be possible by eliminating exemptions in these rules, increasing control efficiency requirements, or by reducing VOC limits.
FUG-05: Emission Reductions from Fugitive Sources This measure combines three remaining commitments from the 1997/ 1999 SIP. It focuses on sources such as oil and gas production facilities, petrol eum and chemical products processing and transfer facilities, refineries, and other fugitive sources. Im plementation of this measure would require development of a detailed em ission inventory for these sources, and an assessment of potential control technologies.
The 2003 Plan includes a proposal to consider a pilot program that would establish a cap for refinery emissions. Refineries thatmeet this target would be exempt from further controls. The 2003 Plan indicates thatthe pilot program would provide refineries with flexibility to achieve an overall emission reduction target in the most efficient and cost-effective means, in lieu of complying with Di strict prohibitory rule s. It may be useful to explore a cap approach for flexibility as emission reductions from these sources become more technically difficult and expensiv e. If the District considers an approach that would allow these facilities to meeta cap by obtaining emission reductions from other sources (like vehicles and equipment), it is essent ial that emission reductions surplus to the SIP are identified.
MSC-01: Promotion of Lighter Color Roofing and Road Materials and Tree Planting Programs The control measure would develop a program to promote the use of light colored roofing and pavement, as we ll as tree planting to reduce temperatures and improve air quality. The District proposes that these activities could be a required element for new sources, included as reco mmendations through the District's California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Air Q uality Handbook, or eligible for generation of emission reduction credits. Given the magnit ude of reductions required to attain, we recommend that the District consider applyi ng any reductions to the region’s overall attainment targets.21 MSC-03: Promotion of Catalyst-Surface Coating Technology This measure would encourage use of catalyst-surface coating technologies in residential and commercial air conditioners to promote conversion of ground-level ozone and carbon monoxide into oxygen and carbon dioxide. The District proposes that this technology could be a required element for new sources, included as a recommendation through the District's California CEQA Air Quality Handbook, or e ligible for generation of emission reduction credits. Given the magnitude of reductions required to attain, we recommend that the District consider applying any reductions to the region’s overall attainment targets.
PRC-07: Industrial Process Operations The sources under this control measure are permitted and unpermitted VOC sources involv ed in manufacturing or fabrication of rubber, plastic, fiberglass or chemical com pounds, and those involved in the processing, handling or storage of VOC-cont aining materials. Potential control methods include process modifications, add-on controls, enhanced inspection, or modifications to work practices.

WST-01: Livestock Waste This measure from the 1997/1999 SIP focuses on ammonia reductions to reduce the associated PM10 formation, and also has the potential to reduce VOC emissions. T he 2003 Plan indicates that the emission inventory is decreasing because of dairies relocating outside the District (to the San Joaquin Valley and eastern desert), updated population estimates, and Regional Water Quality Control Board regulations. The Dis trict has not adopted a prohibitory rule to reduce emissions from livestock waste.

The District believes that additional VOC reductions could potentially be achieved through use of anaerobic digesters and enclosed composting for animal waste, and increased disposal of waste outside the District. The measure also commits to decrease ammonia emissions through livestock relocation and/or potential controls. If sufficient livestock relocation has occurred by January 1, 2004 to achieve a 50 percent ammonia emission reduction from 1993 leve ls, the District proposes no action. If ammonia controls are needed, the Distr ict will evaluate a number of approaches, including enclosed composting, and increased out-of-Basin manure disposal.
ARB staff encourages the District to focus on approaches that seek to reduce and control emissions from livestock and their wast es in place. ARB staff is involved in university studies examining VOC reactivity and emission factors for livestock waste, in order to better understand t he magnitude of livestock wa ste VOC emissions and the benefits of potential controls. We will share the results with the Dis trict staff to aid development of this measure. The San Joaqui n Valley District staff is also looking at ways to reduce livestock emissions. We encourage the South Coast District staff to coordinate its efforts with the Valley. A co mmon set of strategies could help ensure that these operations reduce emissions as much as feasible, regardless of their location.
WST-02: Composting This measure, adopted by the District in January 2003, achieves 1.2 tpd VOC and 1.9 t pd ammonia reductions in 2010 by requiring: 1) existing co-composting facilities that produce compos t from sewage sludge or livestock manure22 and bulking agents such as green waste to reduce VOC and ammonia emissions by 70 percent; 2) new co-composting facilities to appl y specific controls or achieve 80 percent emission reductions; and 3) chipping and grinding businesses, which process green waste for use as a landfill cover, biomass fuel or composting feedstock, to limit the time they hold or process green waste toprevent unintentional decomposition. FSS-04: Emission Charges of $5,000 pe r Ton for Large Stationary Sources The CAA requires that the District adopt a rule thatprovides for all stationary VOC sources emitting more than 10 tons per year (tpy) in an extreme nonattainment area to pay a $5,000 per ton emission fee, if U.S. EPA makes a formal finding that the area has failed to attain the federal one-hour ozone standard by 2010. The f ee (adjusted for inflation since 1990) would be assessed on each ton of VOC emissions in excess of 80 percent of each source’s 2010 emissions.
FLX-01: Economic Incentive Programs This measure is intended to increase compliance flexibility through activities such as trading of stationary and mobile source emission credits, development of pilot credit trading rules between mobile and stationary sources, and other market incentive approaches. Mobile source projects used to subsidize growth in stationary source emissions should promote the early introduction of new pollution control tec hnologies. We encourage the District to continue seeking additional feasible reduct ions from improved control technologies on stationary facilities as well to help meet t he region’s long-term attain ment target. If the District considers an approach that would a llow these facilities to obtain emission reductions from other sources (like vehicles and equipment), it is e ssential that emission reductions surplus to the SIP are identified.

CMB-10: NOx RECLAIM Under the District's Regional Clean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) program, stationary sources emitti ng 4 tons per year or more of NOx or SOx have the option of meeti ng control requirements for NO x or SOx through a facilitywide emissions allocation, or "cap." This facility cap can be met by either installing controls, or by purchasing RECLAIM Trading Credits. Under the current SIP, emissions allocated to RECLAIM sources were a llowed to remain constant between 2003 and 2010. This measure would reduce the NOx a llocation for RECLAIM facilities from 35.7 tpd to 32.7 tpd, or about eight percent, by 2010.
District staff reported that many power plants achieved over 90 percent control when they were temporarily removed from the RECLAIM program and required to comply with District prohibitory rules. The power plants generated emission reductions of 0.5 to 2.5 tpd (annual average) in 2003, and up to 3.8 tpd in 2010, beyond those needed to meet the RECLAIM cap. 1 If these reductions are retu rned to the RECLAIM program as RECLAIM credits, they will more than fulfill the District's proposed CMB-10 commitment without any new controls. During rule dev elopment, we encourage the District staff to evaluate whether a similarly effective overall level of control on the non-power plant

1 South Coast Air Quality Management District, B oard letter, Recommendations Regarding Reentry of Power Producing Facilities into RECLAIM Program, June 6, 200323 sources in RECLAIM could achieve more NOx reductions to help meet the region’s long-term needs.
MSC-05: Truck Stop Electrification Many diesel-powered trucks must idle their engines in order to provide power for heat , air conditioning, appliances, and other onboard systems, and must operate auxiliary engines to power trailer refrigeration units. In order to eliminate excess idling at truck stops, this measure woul d require installation of electric systems to provide power for the truck cab, and external power supplies for transport refrigeration units on trucks. AR B staff is developing statewide measures to reduce emissions from the engines used on trans port refrigeration un its and from truck idling. ARB staff intends to work with t he District staff developing this infrastructure measure to ensure that the local rule fo r truck stops compliment s ARB's requirements for trucks and auxiliary engines.
MSC-07: Natural Gas Fuel Specifications Elevated higher heating values of hot gas relative to normal gas results in higher combustion temperature and increased NOx emissions. This measure would establish a maximum heating value limit for natural gas sold in the District.
MSC-08: Large VOC Sources This measure would require facilities to submit a plan outlining measures they woul d implement to achieve a specific emission reduction target beyond that achieved by existing regul ations. Mechanisms to achieve additional reductions could include add-on controls, process controls, product reformulations, mitigation fees, or other measures. Since all District sources of VOC account for 30 percent of emissions in 2010, we encourage t he effort to challenge sources to identify the most effective way to achi eve further emission reductions.
FSS-05: Mitigation Fee Program for Federal SourcesThis measure would establish a fee program for sources under federal jurisdiction that operate in the Basin. The District envisions that U.S. EPA would adopt the proposed program, with the funds provided to the District through U.S. EPA rulemaking and/or grants. FSS-05 is structured to reduce local emissions from federal sources without requiring the imposition of national controls. The District proposes to solicit and fund projects with the collected fees to reduce emissions from ei ther federal or non-federal sources. The 2003 Plan does not quantify or credit emission reductions from this measure in the attainment demonstration.
ARB staff concurs that significant emi ssion reductions are needed from sources under federal jurisdiction, and supports the concept of requiring that thes e sources contribute (directly or indirectly) to m eeting the region's emission redu ction targets. U.S. EPA has the authority to promulgate regional regulations, whether control requirements or mitigation fees, in lieu of controls. If funding can be secured, the District will need to address issues such as: the enforceability and quantification of emission reductions, project selection criteria, location of emissi on reduction projects relative to mitigated sources, and program oversight. ARB st aff will provide additional comments on this measure as these details emerge.24 FSS-06: In-Use Off-Road Vehicles and EquipmentThe District is pursuing the legal authority to regulate existing mobile sources th rough strategies such as retrofit controls or mitigation fees. Under this measure, the District would develop regulations to require the retrofit of existing off-road engines , or to accelerate engine turnover.
ARB and U.S. EPA have primary authority to establish broad-based emission reduction programs for mobile sources. However, the District fleet rules (which are already authorized under State law) and various m obile source incentive programs have demonstrated that there are options that can be implemented locally to help accelerate the reductions from existing mobile sources. ARB staff is supportive of District actions that are consistent with St ate law and fully coordinated wit h the statewide program to achieve additional feasible and co st-effective emission reductions.
FSS-07: Emission Fee Program fo r Port-Related Mobile Sources The District proposes an emissions fee program for in-u se port-related mobile sources such as ships, trains, trucks, off-road equipment, and other vehicles and equipment. The District would use funds collected from the program to achieve additional emission reductions from on- and off-road mobile sources. ARB staff supports efforts to reduce emissions from the ports, especially in the absence of more stringent emission standards for federal and international sources. Howeve r, as with FSS-05, details about program implementation and oversight have not yet been resolved. We will provide additional comments on this measure as these details emerge.
Contingency Measures Section 172(c)(9) of the Cl ean Air Act requires the SIP provide for contingency measures. In meas ure CTY-01: Accelerated Implementation of Control Measures, the District proposes tomove up implementation of all District controls with a post-2003 implem entation date if contingency provisions are triggered. This measure would not affect the total reductions achieved. The District has listed ARB as an implementing agency for CTY-01. ARB staff is not proposing a State commitment for this measure because the adopted mobile source controls generate increasing benefits over time and provide c ontingency reductions after the attainment date.
Additional Opportunities for Further Reductions To meet the ozone attainment targets, all agencies are seeking opportuniti es for further VOC and NOx reductions. In addition to the suggestions described above, we offer the following preliminary ideas for the District staff to consider as possibl e long-term mechanisms to achieve additional VOC and NOx reductions, along wit h additional strategies fo r sources under State and federal jurisdiction, to help meetthe region’s attainment target.

 Petroleum Refinery Flares -- The Dis trict has included CMB-07: Emission Reductions from Petroleum Refinery Fl ares, as a commitment in the proposed revisions to the PM10 SIP to reduce SOx emissions. The measure will be fully implemented by the PM10 attainment dead line of 2006. The District anticipates25 concurrent reductions in VOC, NOx, C O, and PM10 emissions, but does not include them in its near-term control strategy.
Because District Rule 1118 requires refinerie s to monitor refinery flare emissions, we believe the District will be in a good position to estimate the VOC and NOx benefits that would accrue from th is measure as rule dev elopment progresses. We encourage the District to apply any result ing benefits to help meet the region’s overall VOC and NOx reduction needs.
The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (Bay Area) is actively developing a refinery flare rule as part of its Ozone Plan. We encourage the District staff to coordinate with Bay Area staff to maxi mize the results of these efforts.

 Wood Products Coatings – We encourage t he District to evaluate the potential benefits of amending Rule 1136 to elimin ate the exemption for residential noncommercial applications or implement a usage cap for this exemption. The requirements of Sacrament o District Rule 463 may provide opportunities for additional reductions.

 Metal Container, Closure, and Coil Coati ng Operations -- We encourage the District to evaluate the potential benefits of amending Rule 1125 to eliminate the one gallon per day low use exemption and lower t he VOC limits for certain can and coil products. The requirements of San Diego District Rule 67.4 may provide opportunities for additional reductions.

 Marine Coating Operations -- We encourage the District to evaluate the potential benefits of amending Rule 1106 to lower the product VOC limits for specific marine coating products. The requirements in pl ace in San Diego may provide opportunities for additional reductions.

 Fleet Rules -- The District is reducing both toxic and criteria pollutants with its fleet rules for sources like school buses, trash trucks, and street sw eepers. The benefits of the District fleet rules are not refl ected in the 2003 Plan. We encourage the District to revisit the emission reductions from local fleet programs by 2007 so those benefits can be included when we reasse ss the emission reductions needed from long-term measures.

c. Structure of District Commitment

The structure of the District's commitment in the 2003 SIP is similar to the approach used in the 1997/1999 SIP, with the addition of a proposal to credit emission decreases that result from changes in the inventory methodology or growth assumptions towards the District's emission reduction obligatio ns. The District includes an enforceable commitment to bring each of it s control measures to the Dis trict Governing Board and to meet a residual emissions target that would be achieved via emission controls or inventory adjustments. If a particular SIP measure does not achieve the anticipated26 emission reductions, the District must adopt alte rnate strategies to fulfill the overall SIP commitment on time. Table III-7 shows the District's proposed schedule for emissions reductions through adoption and implementation of near-term measures or inventory changes.

Table III-7 District Near-Term Emission Reduction Commitments (South Coast Air Basin, Summer planning, tons per day in 2010)
VOC NOx
Year Based on Adoption Date Based on Implementation Date Based on Adoption Date Based on Implementation Date 2002 0.6

-- -- -- 2003 16.9 0.6

-- -- 2004 2.0

-- 3.0

-- 2005 2.0

-- 2.1

-- 2006

-- 4.8

-- -- 2007

-- 2.0

-- 2.1 2008

-- 12.1

-- -- 2009

-- -- -- -- 2010

-- 2.0

-- 3.0 TOTAL 21.5 21.5 5.1 5.1

The District proposes to measure its compli ance based on remaining emissions in 2010, allowing emission decreases t hat result from changes in the inventory methodology or growth assumptions to be credited toward s its emission reduction commitment shown in Table III-7. Such inventory changes would have to be peer reviewed and approved by the District Governing Board to be eligible for SIP credit. The 2003 Plan does not indicate whether inventory methodology chang es that result in emission increases would increase the District's control respons ibilities under the newcommitments. The District’s approach could result in a differentnet change in emissions from local sources over time than anticipated in the 2003 Plan. The 2007 SIP revision will need to reconcile any changes in inventory or cont rol effectiveness from the District’s near-term measures with an updated attainment demons tration to reassess the long-term emission reduction needs.

ARB has assessed State and federal SI P progress based on emission reductions achieved relative to the approved SIP invent ory, consistent with the modeled attainment demonstration. We believe this approach allows an accurate assessment of the control effectiveness achieved versus the effectivene ss anticipated in a plan. ARB will continue to track State and federal progress using this SIP inventory currency approach.27 d. Transportation Strategy
The 2003 Plan includes a VOC, NOx, and carbon monoxide emission reduction commitment from SCAG, resulting from impl ementation of its Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and Transportation Control Meas ures (TCMs). SCAG's commitment to achieve emission reductions in the Basin is shown in Table III-8.

Table III-8 SCAG 2010 Emission Reduction Commitment

(South Coast Air Basin, Summer planning, tons per day)

Pollutant Entire RTP (includes TCMs) Subset of TCMs Only VOC 15.7 5.6 NOx 7.8 1.0 CO 161.8 60.8

Emission reductions from the RT P are from an expected lower rate of growth in motor vehicle activity due to an improved regional balance between the location of jobs and housing, as well as increased average vehi cle speeds and reduced vehicle trips due to transportation measures. The TCMs in the 2003 Plan fall in the following categories:

 High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) Measures : Construction and dedication of new HOV lanes, and differential tolls for HOVs.

 Transit System and Management Measures: Bus, rail, and shuttl e transit expansion and improvements; park and ride lots and inte r-modal transfer facilities; bicycle and pedestrian facilities; railroad consolidati on programs, such as grade separation projects; intersection improvem ents; and traffic signalization.

 Information-Based Strategies: Programs that promote alternatives to single occupancy vehicle commutes, and improve congestion management strategies.
Since the transportation sector is the larges t contributor to air pollution in Southern California, it must also be the primary s ource of emission reductions as well. The magnitude of long-term emission reductions needed for attainment require not only a commitment to cleaner vehicles, but also toa lower-emitting transportation system. The work currently being done in many SCAG task forces on the development of the 2004 RTP includes draft policies, actions, and growth scenarios that could help produce sustainable emission reductions through reduc ed vehicle trips and trip lengths. We encourage SCAG to bring these "green" pl anning measures before its committees and Regional Council to provide an opportunityfor the RTP not only to meet the transportation needs of the region but also toprovide the maximum air quality benefits possible. ARB staff expects that SCAG will be an active partner in the process to identify and implement the new long-term st rategies needed to attain our air quality goals.28 2. State Control Strategy
The 2003 Plan for ozone, PM10, carbon monox ide, and nitrogen dioxide relies on the significant benefits of the existing State control program. The St ate will continue leading the effort to improve air quality in the S outh Coast and statewide, providing a greater share of the emission reductions than contribut ed by sources under its jurisdiction. This is essential since these sources are major c ontributors to the overall emissions. State actions to date are delivering three-fourths of all emission reductions adopted between the 1997 baseline and 2010 to reduce ozone in the South Coast. The ozone SIP element of the 2003 Plan depends on further State reductions based on ARB staff’s draft proposal for new near-t erm and long-term measures.
ARB is responsible for controlling emissions from mobile sources (except where federal law preempts ARB's authority) and consumer products, developing fuel specifications, establishing gasoline vapor recovery standards and certifying vapor recovery systems. The Bureau of Automotive Repair (BAR) admin isters California's vehicle inspection and maintenance program, known as "Smog Che ck", while the Department of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) is responsible for regulat ing pesticides for commercial/structural and agricultural uses.
(Note: although the State’s emission reduction commitments are expressed in terms of reactive organic gases or ROG, we use t he VOC label here for consistency with the local elements of the 2003 Plan.)
a. Progress Since 1994 SIP
Most of the existing near-term State m easures from the 1994 SIP have been adopted, along with additional measures to reduce emissions. These include strategies to reduce emissions from cars, trucks, buses , motorcycles, marine pleasurecraft, off-road engines and equipment, fuels and fuel dispens ing, consumer products, pesticides, and other sources. Table III-9 shows that these measures fu lfill most of the existing nearterm VOC reduction commitment and exceed the total State commitment for near-term and long-term NOx reductions. The 1997/1999 SI P did not alter t he State or federal strategy but updated the SIP commitment based on that Plan's new inventory. The benefits of State measures adopted through October 2002 are reflected in the 2003 Plan baseline.29 Table III-9 State Measures Adopted Since 1994 SIP (As of October 2002, based on South Coast 1997/ 1999 SIP inventory, tons per day in 2010)

VOC Reductions NOx Reductions Near-Term Measures Adopted Commitment Achieved in 2010 Commitment Achieved in 2010 M1: Light-duty vehicle scrappage 1998 0 0 M2: Low Emission Vehicle II program 1998 19 4 17 43 M3: Medium-duty vehicles 1995 Baseline 1

- Baseline 1

- M4: Incentives for clean engines (Moyer Program) 2 1999 0 0 1 3 M5: California heavy-duty diesel vehicle standards 2 1998 6 5 42 44 M7: Heavy-duty vehicle scrappage 2 Replaced with M17 1 NA 7 NA M17: In-use reductions from heavy-duty vehicles No 0 0 M8: Heavy-duty gasoline vehicle standards 1995 Baseline 1

- Baseline 1

- M9: CA heavy-duty off-road diesel engine standards 2 2000 1 4 20 18 M11: CA large off-road gas/LPG engine standards 2 1998 15 16 8 5 CP2: Consumer products mid-term measures 1997/1999 34 15 0 0 CP3: Aerosol paint standards 1995/1998 Baseline 1

- - - Enhanced I/M (Smog Check II) (BAR) 1995 Baseline 1 (6) Baseline 1

- DPR-1: Emission reductions from pesticides (DPR) Voluntary 1 1 0 0 Adopted measures not originally included in SIP Clean fuels measures Multiple 13 12 Marine pleasurecraft (reductions beyond M16) 1998/2001 7 0 Motorcycle Standards 1998 1 0 Urban transit buses 2000 0 1 Enhanced vapor recovery program 2000 6 0 Medium/heavy-duty gasoline standards (beyond M8) 2000 0 1 2007 heavy-duty diesel truck standards (beyond M5 and M6) 2001 1 12 Small off-road engine standard revisions 1998 (1) 0 NEAR-TERM TOTAL 77 66 95 139 Long-Term Measures (Section 182(e)(5)) Advanced technology on-road mobile measures No 37 0 6

- 3 Advanced technology off-road mobile measures No 18 0 3

- 3 CP4: Long-term measure for consumer products No 43 0 0 0 LONG-TERM TOTAL 98 0 9

- 3 GRAND TOTAL (near-term + long-term) 177 66 105 139

Emission reductions from individual measures may not add to total due to rounding. ( ) = Emission increase relative to baseline. 1 Measures M3, M8, CP3, and the Smog Check II program from the 1994 SIP had already been adopted when the SIP was revised in 1997. The reductions from these measures are included in the 1997/1999 SIP baseline. Although the Smog Check II program is achi eving significant benefits, the emission reductions are less than anticipated in the 1997/1999 SIP as indicate d by the negative number under reductions achieved. 2The 1997/1999 SIP combined the ARB/U.S. EPA commitment for meas ures M-4 through M-7, M-9 and M-10, and M-11 and M-12. The emission reducti on commitment for the grouped measures have been disaggregated based upon the relative commitment for each measure in the 1994 SIP. 3The NOx reductions anticipated from the long-ter m mobile source commitment have already been achieved from adopted measures.30 b. Proposed State Measures
ARB staff is proposing that the State commi t to additional reductions of 49 tpd VOC and 37 tpd NOx in South Coast in 2010 through new measures to be adopted between 2003-2006. The State’s strategy includes 19 near-term defined measures that ARB staff would develop, plus BAR’s planned improvements to the Smog Check program and continuation of DPR’s existing commitm ent to reduce volatile emissions from pesticides. The ARB measures cover on -road vehicles, off-road equipment, marine vessels/ports, fuels and refueling, and cons umer products. Lower emission standards for new engines and consumer products are complemented by measures to clean up the existing fleet of mobile sources. Other measures woul d reduce gasoline vapor emissions from storage tanks, service stations, and fuel tank er trucks. Tighter limits on fuel properties are also proposed. Tabl e III-10 summarizes the measures and the expected emission reductions.

Process As the Board neared adoption of all the defined measures in the 1994 SIP, ARB staff began to outline the next generation of State and federal control measures. In 2001, we initiated a public process to i dentify new emission reduction strategies for California. In January 2003, ARB staff rel eased a draft document focused on potential measures for sources under State and federal authority that would help reduce ozone and PM10 by 2010. Following twelve public workshops, we issued the Proposed State and Federal Strategy for the California SI P on May 12, 2003. The 2003 Plan for the South Coast Air Basin anticipates the new near-term measures and proposed State commitment for emission reductions in 2010 that are described in the May document. The Air Resources Board will consider adopti on of the State Strat egy prior to the 2003 South Coast Ozone SIP since the State commitm ent is essential to complete the SIP’s attainment demonstration.
On August 25, 2003, we released the Revised Proposed State and Federal Strategy for the California SIP (State and Federal Stra tegy) based on subsequent information. This revision retains the same near-term emi ssion reduction commitments for the South Coast. The measures and strategies are largely unchanged except for consolidation of two measures proposed for large spark-i gnited equipment like forklifts. The new consolidated strategy is contained in OFF-RD LSI-2: Clean Up Off-Road Gas Equipment Fleet Through Retrofit Controls and New Emission Standards (Spark Ignition Engines 25 hp and Greater).
The August version also reflects the Board’s June 26, 2003 approval of the State commitments for the San Joaquin Valley PM 10 SIP, and its July 24, 2003 adoption of low-sulfur requirements for on-road and off -road diesel fuel throughout California. Another significant addition is the proposed State long-term strategy for the South Coast, including staff’s proposal if U.S. EPA does not carry out its responsibilities for new emission reductions. We also includ ed minor updates to the range of anticipated reductions and timing for a few near-term measures without changing the overall benefits of the proposed State commitment. The Revised State Strategy is available at: http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm

.31 Table III-10 Proposed State Near-Term Measures for 2003 Ozone SIP (South Coast Air Basin, Summer planning, tons per day) Expected Reductions (South Coast 2010)* Strategy (Agency) Name Final Action

Date Implementation Date VOC NOx DEFINED STATE MEASURES TO BE DEVELOPED AND PROPOSEDLT/MEDDUTY-1 (ARB) Replace or Upgrade Emission Control Systems on Existing Passenger Vehicles – Pilot Program 2005 2007-2008 0-19 0-18

LT/MEDDUTY-2 (BAR) Improve Smog Check to Reduce Emissions from Existing Passenger and Cargo Vehicles 2002-2005 2002-2006 5.6-5.8 8.0-8.4

ON-RD HVY-DUTY-1 (ARB) Augment Truck and Bus Highway Inspections with Community-Based Inspections 2003 2005 0-0.1 0

ON-RD HVY-DUTY-2 (ARB) Capture and Control Vapors from Gasoline Cargo Tankers 2005 2006-2007 4-5 0

ON-RD HVY-DUTY-3 (ARB) Pursue Approaches to Clean Up the Existing and New Truck/Bus Fleet 2003-2006 2004-2010 1.4-4.5 8-11

OFF-RD CI-1 (ARB) Pursue Approaches to Clean Up the Existing Heavy-Duty Off-Road Equipment Fleet (Compression Ignition Engines) – Retrofit Controls 2004-2008 2006-2010 2.3-7.8 NQ

OFF-RD CI-2 (ARB) Implement Registration and InspectionProgram for Existing Heavy-Duty OffRoad Equipment to Detect Excess Emissions (Compression Ignition Engines) 2006-2009 2010 NQ NQ

OFF-RD LSI-1 (ARB) Set Lower Emission Standards for New Off-Road Gas Engines (Spark Ignited Engines 25 hp and Greater) 2004-2005 2007 0 0.8

OFF-RD LSI-2** (ARB) Clean Up Off-Road Gas Equipment Through Retrofit Controls and New Emission Standards (Spark-Ignition Engines 25 hp and Greater) 2004 2006-2012 0.8-2.0 2-4

SMALL OFF-RD-1 (ARB) Set Lower Emission Standards for New Handheld Small Engines and Equipment (Spark Ignited Engines Under 25 hp such as Weed Trimmers, Leaf Blowers, and Chainsaws) 2003 2005 1.9 0.2

SMALL OFF-RD-2

(ARB) Set Lower Emission Standards for New Non-Handheld Small Engines and Equipment (Spark Ignited Engines Under 25 hp such as Lawnmowers) 2003 2007 6.3-7.4 0.6-1.932 Expected Reductions (South Coast 2010)* Strategy (Agency) Name Final Action

Date Implementation Date VOC NOx

MARINE-1 (ARB) Pursue Approaches to Clean Up the Existing Harbor Craft Fleet – Cleaner Engines and Fuels 2003-2005 2005 0.1 2.7

MARINE-2 (ARB) Pursue Approaches to Reduce LandBased Port Emissions – Alternative Fuels, Cleaner Engines, Retrofit Controls, Electrification, Education Programs, Operational Controls 2003-2005 2003-2010 0.1 0.1

FUEL-1 (ARB) Set Additives Standards for Diesel Fuel to Control Engine Deposits 2006-2009 2006-2010 NQ NQ

FUEL-2 (ARB) Set Low-Sulfur Standards for Diesel Fuel for Trucks/Buses, Off-Road Equipment, and Stationary Engines 2003 2006 Enabling Enabling

CONS-1

(ARB) Set New Consumer Products Limits for 2006 2003-2004 2006 2.3 0

CONS-2

(ARB) Set New Consumer Products Limits for 2008-2010 2006-2008 2008-2010 8.5-15 0

FVR-1 (ARB) Increase Recovery of Fuel Vapors from Aboveground Storage Tanks 2003 2007 0-0.1 0

FVR-2 (ARB) Recover Fuel Vapors from Gasoline Dispensing at Marinas 2006-2009 2006-2010 0-0.1 0

FVR-3 (ARB) Reduce Fuel Permeation Through Gasoline Dispenser Hoses 2004 2007 0-0.7 0

PEST-1 (DPR) Implement Existing Pesticide Strategy

--- 1996-2010 Baseline N/A Potential Range for Defined Near-Term State Measures 33.3-71.9 22.4-47.1 Minimum Commitment via Adoption 2003-2006 49 37

c. Structure of Proposed State Commitment
ARB staff is proposing a three-tiered commi tment, as detailed in the State Strategy document. The foundation is a near-term commitment to develop and propose for Board consideration 19 defin ed statewide control measures listed for ARB in Table III-10. The Board could take any acti on within its discretion in response to these proposals. The next element is an annual commitment to adopt measures through 2006 to achieve specified further emission reductions in the South Coast as shown in Table III-11. The final tier is a long-term commitment to identif y additional measures by 2007. These measures would be adopted between 2007 and 2009 in order to reach attainment targets for the federal one-hour ozone standard in the South Coast by 2010.33 Table III-11 Proposed State Annual Adoption Commi tments for Near-Term Measures 2003 Ozone SIP (South Coast Air Basin, Summer planning, Emission reductions in tons per day)
2003 2004 2005 2006 Total State Reductions from Near-Term Measures VOC 10 4 21 14 49 NOx 11 5 21 0 37

3. Federal Responsibility

Sources of emissions under exclusive federal jurisdiction include cars and trucks registered outside of Californi a which travel within the State, new pre-empt farm equipment and construction equipment, loco motives, marine vessels and aircraft, as well as fuel sold outside California for t hese engines. Federal agencies also have the lead role representing the Un ited States in the process of developing standards for international aircraft and marine vessels.
Like State and local agencies, the federal government has a responsibility to further control emissions. The federal Clean Air Act directs U.S. EPA to continue reducing mobile source emissions that cause or contribute to air pollution that endangers public health. The ozone and particulate levels in the South Coast clearly meet this test. U.S. EPA needs to pursue new requirements fo r national and international sources, and complement them with incentives to speed turnover of the diesel fleet to cleaner engines. Federal action is essential to meethealth-based air quality goals in this region and other parts of the State.
While U.S. EPA is proposing several initiati ves that would help reduce emissions, the agency has stated its unwillingness to make a legal commitment for any new emission reductions to be credited in the 2003 Oz one SIP for the South Coast Air Basin. U.S. EPA has also stated its intention to di sapprove the 2003 Ozone SIP if it explicitly relies on federal action to achieve any further reductions in the attainment demonstration. As a result, there are no near-term federal control measures in the 2003 Plan.
This section briefly identifies what federal agencies have done to reduce ozone-forming emissions in the South Coast Air Basi n since adoption of the 1994 Ozone SIP and describes the expected emissions contribu tion from federal sources in 2010 after implementation of the adopted controls. We cover potential concepts for additional federal actions under the Long-Term Strategy discussion.
a. Progress Since 1994 SIP
U.S. EPA and ARB have partnered e ffectively, sharing technical resources to develop new emission standards and other approachesto reduce emissions from source34 categories under shared authority. For exam ple, parallel regulat ions will require 98 percent control on new heavy-duty trucks, when fully implemented by 2010. The national emission standards for these vehicles are vital to reducing NOx and particulate emissions to meet health-based air quality standards and reduce the cancer risk from exposure to diesel parti culate matter. The NOx and VOC benefits of U.S. EPA measures adopted since the 1994 SIP are s hown in Table III-12. These emission reductions are reflected in the Plan baseline inventory.

Table III-13 Federal Measures Adopted Since 1994 SIP (As of October 2002, based on South Coast 1997/ 1999 SIP inventory, tons per day in 2010)

VOC Reductions NOx Reductions Near-Term Measures Adopted Commitment Achieved in 2010 Commitment Achieved in 2010 M6: National heavy-duty diesel vehicle standards 1 1998 2 1 12 11 M10: National heavy-duty off-road diesel engine stds 1 1998 3 6 26 25

M12: National large off-road gas/LPG engine stds 1 2002 17 14 9 5 M13: Marine vessel standards 1999 0 0 15 2 M14: Locomotive engine standards 1997 0 0 17 17 M15: Aircraft standards No 3 0 6 0 M16: Marine pleasurecraft standards 1996 21 17 0 0 Adopted measures not originally included in SIP 2007 heavy-duty diesel truck standards (beyond M5 and M6) 2001 0 4

NEAR-TERM TOTAL 46 39 85 64 Emission reductions from individual measures may not add to total due to rounding. 1 The 1997/1999 SIP combined the AR B/U.S. EPA commitment for measures M-4 through M-7, M-9 and

M-10, and M-11 and M-12. The emission reducti on commitment for the grouped measures have been disaggregated based upon the relative commitment for each measure in the 1994 SIP.

b. Emissions Contribution

The emission sources under t he exclusive legal or practi cal control of the federal government account for over 30 percent of NOx emissions and 60 percent of diesel particulate emissions in the South Coast in 2010. Federal sources will contribute approximately eight percent of the 2010 ROG emissions.
Despite continued population and travel growth, ozone-forming emissions from most sources are declining over time due to the effectiveness of adopted controls. However, net emissions from marine and aircraft ca tegories are rising. Between 2000 and 2010 in the South Coast, the total NOx emissi ons from marine vessels are projected to increase over 20 percent because the effects of activity growth are greater than the benefits of current controls. In contrast, to tal NOx emissions will drop by 60 percent for passenger vehicles and 30 percent for trucks ov er the same period in that region. As35 State and local agencies continue to make commitments and adopt new measures, the relative contribution of emissions from sources under federal control will increase even faster.

c. New Federal Actions to Reduce Emissions

As U.S. EPA and ARB continue to coordi nate on future rulemaking, U.S. EPA is developing three specific proposals to reduce emissions from federal sources. First, U.S. EPA has proposed more stringent emi ssion standards for new off-road diesel equipment based on the transfer of emission control technology for on-road engines. The benefits will be critical in the post-2010 ti meframe, both to offset growth and to make progress toward the new, more stringentfederal ambient air quality standards. Second, U.S. EPA proposes to phase in the us e of low sulfur diesel fuel in off-road applications nationwide. Th is will enable the use of more sophisticated control technology on off-road diesel engines. Third, U.S. EPA is working in parallel with California to develop on-board diagnosti cs and to strengthen manufacturers’ in-use testing to ensure that new heavy-duty tr ucks and buses maintain expected emission levels throughout their useful lives. Howe ver, U.S. EPA has not proposed to take any legal responsibility for achieving additional reductions needed for ozone attainment in the South Coast.
4. Long-Term Strategy
The federal Clean Air Act recognizes that extreme ozone nonattainment areas, such as the South Coast, must rely on evolving technologies to meet attainment goals. Consistent with section 182(e)(5) of the Act, prior SIPs for South Coast have included a long-term commitment to achieve the last increment of emission reductions, with the remaining measures to be defined by 2007.
After accounting for the anticipated benefit s of both adopted and new near-term defined State and local measures, the 2003 SIP dem onstrates a need for another 265 tpd ROG reductions and 181 tpd NOx reductions from l ong-term measures. This represents 30 percent of the total reductions needed by 2010.
We believe that this gap can be bridged through a cooperative effort by the local, State and federal agencies responsible for specific emission sources. This effort should focus on how to most effectively achieve the additional reducti ons, considering the availability and cost of potent ial controls. As the St ate agency charged with ensuring California’s SIP compliance, ARB is ultima tely responsible for ensuring the necessary measures are identified by 2007 and the emi ssion reductions are achieved by 2010.
a. Primary Attainment Strategy

StateARB staff has proposed to lead a multi- agency (State, federal, local) effort with the public to assess potential control concept s for every type of emission source and develop the full scope of strategies needed toachieve these reductions. In the36 Proposed State and Federal Strategy, we ident ify potential long-term emission reduction concepts to explore for mobile sources, fuels, consumer products, and pesticides, as well as programs to inform consumer choice s. We have also received suggestions from others. In early 2004, ARB staf f plans to initiate a public process to solicit further ideas to begin development of the long-term measures.

Federal Based on the emissions from source s under federal jurisdiction, the 2003 Plan identifies a federal responsibility for additi onal reductions of 68 tpd NOx and 18 tpd VOC by 2010 to help attain the federal one-hourozone standard in the South Coast. Longterm strategies for new engines in loco motives, ocean-going ships, harborcraft, and commercial and non-tactical military aircraft are feasible and effective means to cut emissions and will be critical to make progress toward all of the national air quality standards. Because of the extended life of these engines, we believe the long-term strategy will need to rely heavily on programs to replace existing engines with cleaner models or to add emission control equipment. Given the volume of equipment in operation and the public health im pact of the emissions, it is important that U.S. EPA and its federal partners take early action in this regard. The State and Federal Strategy document includes concepts t hat the federal government sh ould consider to achieve these reductions, as summarized in Table III-13.

Table III-13 ARB Staff Concepts for Federal Action On-Board Diagnostics for New Truck/Bus Fl eet and In-Use Testing for Existing Truck/Bus Fleet Lower Emission Standards for New Off-Road Compression Ignition Engines Low-Sulfur Standards for Diesel Fuel for Of f-Road Equipment, Locomotives, and Marine Vessels More Stringent Emission Standards for Ne w Harbor Craft and Ocean-Going Ships Clean Up the Existing Ocean-Going Ship Fleet through Approaches such as Cleaner Fuels, Incentives for Cleaner Ships, Smoke (Opacity) Limits Reduce Emissions from Jet Aircraft through A pproaches such as More Stringent Engine Standards, Retrofit Controls, Cleaner Fuel , and Applying Standards to Non-Tactical Military Aircraft More Stringent Emission Standards for Ne w and Remanufactured Locomotive Engines Incentives to Accelerate Clean Up of Existing Diesel Engines

Local The District adopted a two-part commitment for long-term VOC measures: (a) Tier I with 11 tpd VO C reductions to be adopted 2005- 2007 and implemented 2007- 2009; and (b) Tier II with 20 tpd VOC reductions to be adopted 2006-2008 and implemented 2008-2010. Alt hough sources under District jurisdiction contribute over ten percent of NOx emissions in 2010, the District did not propose any long-term NOx commitment.37 The District identified several mechanisms to develop the strategies to achieve the VOC reductions, including: working with the pub lic via advisory groups and technical forums, updating the emission inventory assumptions (see discussion under Structure of District Commitment), considering reactivity -based approaches, and conducting periodic technology evaluations. As potential new m easures are defined, the District staff will update the District Governing Board each December.
Over the next four years, the District will also evaluate the legal, technical, and economic feasibility of 12 strategies sugges ted by stakeholders – ten are for mobile sources, primarily at ports. In 2004- 2008, District staff will propose for District Governing Board consideration any of these measures that it has found to be feasible and within the District’s legal authority.

Recommendation In the 2003 Plan, the District a ssigned responsibility for all of the long-term emission reductions by agency -- 31 tons of VOC to itself and the remaining 234 tons of ROG and all 181 tons of NOx reductions to be achieved by ARB and U.S. EPA. We view this as a placeholder between now and 2007, when the long-term measures must be defined. Until that process is complete, the relative long-term emission reduction split among agencies can’t realistically be defined. Nonetheless, it’s clear that ARB, U.S. EPA, the District and local government need to obtain additional reductions and we acknowledge ARB’s res ponsibility to ensure that measures to achieve those reductions are ulti mately identified and implemented.
To reconcile the District’s adopted strategywith ARB staff’s recommendations, we have proposed that: (1) the Board approve the District commitmentfor 31 tpd long-term VOC reductions and the targets fo r the federal government of 18 tpd ROG and 68 tpd NOx reductions, and (2) the State assume overall re sponsibility to assure that measures are identified by 2007 and implement ed by 2010 to achieve the remaining 216 tpd ROG and 113 tpd NOx reductions needed for ozone a ttainment in the South Coast.
We believe that all agencies must activelyseek to identify additional cost-effective control strategies to achieve the maxi mum feasible reductions from all source categories. Part of this evaluation will include a discussion of which agency or agencies can most effectively obtain the emission reductions in practice. We expect that the appropriate agency will begin development as s oon as practicable. Once all of the specific long-term measures are identified, the resulting reductions to be achieved by each agency may be different than envisioned by the District.
By 2007, the District and ARB will prepare a re vision to the Ozone SIP that (1) reflects any modifications to the carrying capacity based on updated science, and (2) identifies the additional strategies, including the im plementing agencies, needed to achieve the necessary emission reductions by 2010.38 b. Alternative Attainment Strategy
ARB intends to continue working with t he U.S. EPA and other federal agencies on both near-term activities and the long-term stra tegy. However, we do not yet have assurance that the federal government will achieve the emissions targets in the needed timeframe.
If U.S. EPA does not accept the primary attain ment strategy (called Option 1) that sets emission targets based on reductions from lo cal, State, and federal elements, the District created an alternative st rategy (Option 2) that excl udes reductions from federal sources and modifies the attainment emission targets. If Option 2 is triggered, the District proposes to relax the NOx control target by 68 tpd (the federal responsibility) and assign the federal 18 tpd VOC reductions toARB. As discussed in section III.B, the modeling shows that the South Coast Air Ba sin could demonstrate attainment with the Option 2 strategy.
However, the attainment emission targets in Option 1 provide the greatest protection for public health and the best foundation for meeti ng the upcoming federal fine particulate and eight-hour ozone standards. (NOx is the dominant contributor to PM2.5 in the Basin.) Achieving federal PM2.5 standards will require aggressive action over the next decade to demonstrate attainment by the 2014 federal target.
Because stringent NOx control is essential for addressing the health threat from fine particulate pollution, ARB staff is proposing that the Board allow the federal reductions of 18 tpd ROG and 68 tpd NOx to be added to the overall St ate long-term commitment if U.S. EPA does not agree to carry out its legal responsibility. The State would provide this backstop as part of the Option 1 attain ment strategy, maintaining the primary attainment emission targets without modification at this time. As part of the process of developing the long-term measures, we will continue to use every possible means to press our federal counterpartsto act where the State and local air agencies cannot.39 IV. 2003 PARTICULATE MATTER SIP FOR SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN

The 2003 Plan includes a PM10 emission inventory, attainment demonstration, control strategy, and other elements required by the CAA. If approved by ARB and U.S. EPA, the PM10 element of 2003 Plan would repl ace the existing 1997 PM10 Plan. The following sections provide ARB staff's analysi s of the PM10 element of the 2003 Plan.
A. Emission Inventory
PM10 is a complex mixture of primary or di rectly emitted particles (from soot and geologic dust), and secondary particles formed in the atmosphere from PM10 precursors such as NOx, sulfur dioxides (SOx ), and VOC. VOC acts as a catalyst in the atmosphere, reacting with NOx to form nitricacid, and with SOx to form sulfuric acid. Both nitric acid and sulfuric acid react with ammonia to form ammonium nitrate or ammonium sulfate particles.
The largest source of direct PM10 emissions is paved and unpaved road dust entrained to the atmosphere during vehicle travel. Construction and demolition activities, waste burning and disposal, and windblown dust are al so major contributors to direct PM10. Entrained road dust and PM10 from constructi on activities will decline through 2006 due to adopted local controls, but are project ed to increase thereafter due to increased vehicle travel and growth in the region.
The largest ammonia sources in the Basi n include livestock waste, fertilizers, and domestic sources. About 50 percent of SO x emissions in the Basin are emitted from commercial ships and boats, while facilit ies in the District's RECLAIM program contribute another 20 percent. Table IV-1 shows trends in PM10 and PM10 precursor emissions between the 1995 base year fo r the PM10 Plan and the 2006 attainment year.40 Table IV-1 PM10 and PM10 Precursor Emission Trends

(South Coast Air Basin, Annual Average, tons per day)

PM10 NOx SOx VOC Source Category 1995 2006 1995 2006 1995 2006 1995 2006 Paved and Unpaved

Road Dust 180 143 0 0 0 0 0 0

Construction and Demolition 29 44 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fugitive Windblown Dust 23 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Stationary And Area-wide 43 51 164 95 36 19 427 292

On-Road Mobile Sources 19 20 869 563 17 5 623 266

Off-Road Vehicles/Equip. 20 21 311 292 29 36 257 139

TOTAL 314 293 1344 950 82 60 1307 697
The relative contribution of precursor and direct PM10 to ambient PM10 levels varies throughout the South Coast, based upon the local geography, human activities, and other factors. In the easte rn part of the Basin, direct PM10 from windblown dust, construction, and entrained road dust are the greatest contributors to ambient PM10. In the more urbanized western part of the Basin, industrial activities, road dust, and vehicle exhaust play a greater role in PM10 conc entrations. Figure IV-1 shows the relative contribution of direct and secondary PM10 em issions to measured PM10 concentrations at key monitoring sites in the Basin.
1. Inventory Updates
The 2003 Plan updates the 1997 PM10 Plan invent ory for several sources of PM10 and PM10 precursors. The 2003 Plan utilizesEMFAC2002 rather than EMFAC7G to generate on-road mobile source emission s, and the OFF-ROAD model to generate most of the off-road emission inventory (See Section III-A, above). Methodologies for estimating stationary and area-wide source emissions of PM10 and PM10 precursors have also been updated using the latest av ailable information. Key inventory methodology updates to the PM10 elementof the 2003 Plan are described below.41 Figure IV-1 Relative Contribution of Primary PM10 and Precursors to Measured Annual Average PM10 Concentrations (1995, μ g/m3 in South Coast Air Basin)



### 0 20 40 60 80

Anaheim Diamond Bar Fontana Los Angleles Rubidoux 

### Primary PM10 Nitrate Ammonium Sulfate

Fugitive Dust PM10 emissions estimates for paved and unpaved road dust, construction operations, windblown dust, and farming operations have all declined due to updated emission factors and activity data. The updated emission factors incorporate information that is more specific and representative of the Sout hern California region. For example, large decreases in the windblown dust category are due to an updated methodology that now uses climate, wind speed, and soil data specific to Southern California. Although estimates of vehicle miles traveled have increased slightly since the 1997 PM10 Plan, the overall entrained paved road dust emissions have declined. This is due to better allocation of traffic on each road type and emission factor refinements, which lowered the effective overall emissions per mile traveled. Similar updates, using the most current emission fa ctor and activity information, were also applied to the unpaved road dust, construction, and farming operation categories.

Residential Wood Combustion The 2003 Plan utilizes the District's methodology to estimate emissions from residential wood combustion. Residential wood combustion includes emissions from both fireplaces used for primary home heating and those used for aesthetic purposes. The South C oast methodology assumes that 50 pounds of wood is burned by 70 to 90 percent of fireplaces for aesthetic purposes, while the remaining 10 to 30 percent of fireplaces burn 800 pounds of wood per year for primary home heating. With this methodology, wood-burning fireplaces in the Basin were estimated to emit 3.6 tpd PM10 in 1997. ARB staff believes the District PM10 emissions estimate for fireplaces may be low. However, additional survey data is needed to more fully understand the extent of residential wood-burning in the Basin. The 2003 Plan indicates the District will wo rk with ARB and other stakeholders to reevaluate the inventory, if necessary, pr ior to adopting a control measure for this source category. 61.0 69.0

42.8 43.5 46.042 Ammonia Sources The District conducted a comprehensive revision to the ammonia inventory, based on a report by AeroVironm ent Environmental Services Inc. (AVES), which updated emission levels and activity fa ctors for ammonia sources in the Basin. 1 Relative to the 1997/99 SIP, overall ammonia emission estimates for the Basin remained relatively unchanged. Estimated em issions from dairy cows increased due to higher population estimates and emission fact ors, while the inventory decreased for poultry (lower emission factor) and horses (lower population estimates and emission factor). Estimates for domes tic ammonia sources have also risen. ARB staff concurs with this inventory methodologyupdate and believes these emission updates reflect the latest scientific data.
Composting Operations As part of the overall ammonia emissions inventory update, ammonia emissions from composting operations were quantified for the first time. VOC emissions from this source are esti mated to be 6.8 tpd in the Basin.

B. Attainment Demonstration
The 2003 Plan includes two modeling approaches to demonstrate atta inment of the 24- hour and annual average PM10 standards. The Distr ict uses a linear rollback method to model the 24-hour average, and the Urban Airshed Model for Aerosols - Long-Term (UAMAERO-LT) to model the annual average. UAMAERO-LT is based on the annual average PM10 and PM10 precursor inventory, with adjustments made for weekly and monthly variation. Both the 24-hour and annual average modeling approaches use data from the 1995 PM10 Technica l Enhancement Program (PT EP). This intensive monitoring program provides the most robust data set for modeling in the South Coast in terms of sampling frequency and information about the chemical components of PM10. The five PTEP monitoring sites we re operated at Anaheim, Diamond Bar, Los Angeles, Fontana, and Rubidoux.

24-Hour Standard The plan demonstrates attainmentof the 24-hour standard at the five PTEP intensive monitoring sites for an exceedance of the PM10 24-hour standard that occurred in November 1995. This data reflects the highest PM10 concentrations observed in the air basin over the last ei ght years that are notwindblown dust events. The District further notes that since 1997, the only 24-hour PM10 exceedances that have occurred have been associated with high winds. The linear rollback method is considered preferable to UAMAERO-LT for dem onstrating attainment of the short-term 24-hour standard due to difficulty in adequatel y representing day-specific spatial variability in emissions, particularly fugi tive dust emission categories. The linear rollback approach apportions the PM10 concentra tion at a monitoring site into its chemical components. The rollback method assumes that future PM10 levels above background concentrations will decrease in proportion to projected emission reductions associated with each chemical component. With projected controls, PM10

1 1997 Gridded Ammonia Emission Inventory Update for the South Coast Air Basin , AeroVironment Environmental Services Inc., August 2001.43 concentrations in 2006 are predicted to be belowthe level of the 24-hour standard at all five PTEP monitoring sites.
Annual Average Standard While the 1997 PM10 Plan modeling focused on demonstrating attainment of the annual average at the five PTEP intensive monitoring sites, the 2003 Plan evaluates attainmentat each modeling grid cell basin-wide. However, data from the five PTEP monitoring sites is used to evaluate the performance of the model. The District established model performance goals and compared model predictions by chemical component to t he ambient data at eac h of the five PTEP monitoring sites. Overall, the perform ance of UAMAERO-LT averaged over the five monitoring sites is within or near the perform ance goals. With projected controls, PM10 concentrations in 2006 are predicted to be below the level of the annual average standard at all five PTEP monitoring site s. Table IV-2 shows the projected concentrations at each of the five sites for comparison to the federal 24-hour standard of 150 μ g/m3 and the federal annual average standard of 50 μ g/m3

. Table IV-2 Projected 2006 24-Hour and Annual Average PM10 Concentrations with 2003 PM10 SIP Controls (South Coast Air Basin)

Site Projected 24-Hour Concentration ( μ g/m3) Projected Annual Average Concentration ( μ g/m3) Anaheim 137.5 49.9 Diamond Bar 123.3 39.9 Fontana 128.4 47.2 Los Angeles 116.7 38.0 Rubidoux 150 47.6

The UAMAERO-LT model also indicates tha t, with projected controls, all but thirteen grid cells attain the federal annual average PM10 standard in 2006. These "hot spot" grid cells are located in Los Angeles and Orange counties in areas that experience heavy traffic and are impacted by paved road dust, as well as in parts of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties heavil y impacted by fugitive windblown dust, construction dust, and paved road dust. The District utilizes a weight-of-evidence analysis to demonstrate t hat the annual average PM10 st andard will be attained in these thirteen grid cells and throughout the Ba sin. Citing studies suggesting paved road dust emissions do not continue increasing once a certain vehicle traffic threshold has been reached, the Plan indicates that these emissions are likely to be overstated by a factor of two in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The District also presents evidence that unpaved road dust, fugitive windblown dust and construction dust emissions are likely misallocated, and that t hese factors are likely to directly impact the thirteen "hot44 spot" grid cells. ARB staff has examined t he weight-of-evidence analysis for the annual average PM10 attainment demonstrati on and has found it to be credible.

C. Control Strategy
The PM10 control strategy in the 2003 Pl an benefits from about 400 tpd NOx, 600 tpd VOC, and 20 tpd PM10 emission reducti ons between 1995 and 2006 from adopted local, State, and federal measures. To s upport the PM10 attainmentdemonstration, the District will adopt additional measures achiev ing 1.02 tpd PM10, 2.1 tpd SOx, and 10.6 tpd ammonia by 2006. The District will achi eve additional PM10 and ammonia emission reductions by 2010, to help mitigate projected increases in paved road dust and construction operation emissions.

1. District Control Measures

Table IV-3 shows emission reductions for the new control measures which address PM10, SOx, and ammonia (NH 3 ). An additional 5.4 tpd VOC emission reductions will be achieved by 2006 from new District ozone control measures described in Section III.C.1.
CMB-07: Refinery Flares District Rule 1118, adopted in 1998, requires petroleum refinery operators to monitor, record, and report data on gas flaring operations. CMB-07 would require a District evaluation of this data to determine the source and extent of emissions and, if the data indica tes emissions are sign ificant, implementation of controls to reduce SOx. Potential control options include physical modifications, implementation of flaring minimization plans, and improvements to operation and maintenance procedures to reduce emergency venting of liquids or gases. See Section III.C.1 for addi tional discussion.
CMB-09: Petroleum Refinery Fluid Catalytic Cracking Units Six petroleum refineries in the Basin operate fluid catalyti c cracking units to convert heavy oils into gasoline and lighter petroleum products. Dis trict Proposed Rule 1105.1 - Reduction of PM10 and Ammonia Emissions from Fluid Cata lytic Cracking Units, scheduled to be considered for adoption by the District Gove rning Board on September 5, 2003, would implement control measure CM B-09. The proposed rule establishes emission limits for filterable PM10 and ammonia and requires periodic source testing to ensure compliance.

WST-01: Livestock WasteSee Section III.C.1.
WST-02: Composting See Section III.C.1.45 Table IV-3 Additional 2003 Plan Dist rict Control Measures (South Coast Air Basin, 2006 annual average emission reductions)

Measure PM10 SOx NH 3 Remaining 1997/1999 SIP Control Measures CMB-07: Refinery Flares (SOx)

-- 2.1

-- CMB-09: Petroleum Refinery Fluid Catalytic Cracking Units (PM10/NH 3 )* 0.0

-- 0.0
WST-01: Livestock Waste (NH 3 )

-- -- 8.7 WST-02: Composting (NH 3 )

-- -- 1.9 PRC-03: Restaurant Operations (PM10) 0.2

-- -- New Control Measures BCM-07: Further PM10 Reductions from Fugitive Dust Sources (PM10) tbd

-- --
BCM-08: Further Emission Reductions from Aggregate and Cement Plant Manufacturing Operations (PM10) 0.6

-- --
MSC-04: Miscellaneous Ammonia Sources (NH 3 )

-- -- tbd MSC-06: Wood-Burning Fireplaces and Wood Stoves (PM10) tbd

-- -- TCB-01: Transportation Conformity Backstop Measure (PM10)* 0.0

-- --

TOTAL REDUCTIONS IN 2006 1.02** 2.1 10.6 * Measures intended to achieve post-2006 emission reductions. ** This total reflects 0.8 tpd PM10 reductions intended to be achieved from PRC-03 and BCM-08, and 0.22 tpd additional PM10 reductions to be achiev ed through a combination of the above control strategies.
PRC-03: Restaurant Operations This control measure would target under-fired charbroilers, which are responsible for 84 percent of PM10 emissions and 71 percent of VOC emissions from all rest aurant operations. The District has a contract with the University of California, Co llege of Engineering, Center for Environmental Research and Technology (CE-CERT) to examine potential cost-effective controls for this source category. Potential emission reduction stra tegies include use of a cyclonic air scrubbing device, which employs water and filters toreduce PM10, and repl acement of under-fired charbroilers with a Smokeless TM Broiler. The Plan indicates PRC-03 targets PM10 emission reductions only, due to the project ed high cost of VOC reduction technologies

BCM-07: Further Emission Reducti ons from Fugitive Dust Sources Section 189(b)(1)(B) of the Act requires the District to implement BACM for major sources of fugitive dust. Upon local adoption, t he 1997 PM10 Plan included fugitive dust regulations at least as stringent as controlsachieved in other areas or included in other PM10 SIPs. However, other areas hav e since developed and adopted controls more stringent than District requirements. BCM-07 would require the District to review its46 BACM requirements and consider updates to ac hieve additional fugitive dust emission reductions. Potential control strategies include watering of dust sources, chemical stabilization, paving, and track-out controls for roads, and revegetation of vacant lands. ARB encourages the District evaluate stra tegies adopted in Las Vegas, Nevada and Mariposa County (Phoenix), Ar izona during its BACM analysis.

BCM-08: Further Emission Reductions from Aggregate and Cement Plant Manufacturing Operations Aggregate plants produce s and, gravel, and crushed stone used in the construction of housing, commerc ial buildings, highways, bridges, airports, and other projects. PM10 emissions occur from quarrying, crushing, and grinding operations at aggregate plants, as well as from wind-blown storage piles, and unpaved haul road traffic. Additional PM10 emissions can occur during the cement kiln process which processes raw materials such as limestone and silica into cement. While existing rules control these sources based on visibl e emissions and other criteria, additional controls may be feasible and cost-effective. Potential controls for aggregate plants include application of water pr ior to material extraction, application of chemical dust suppressants or ground cover to disturbed areas, chemical stabilization or paving of internal haul roads, and other strategies. Po tential controls for cement kilns include electrostatic precipitators, high e fficient baghouses, and improved maintenance practices.

MSC-04: Miscellaneous Ammonia Sources This measure would reevaluate potential control strategies for ammonia source s, based upon the updated ammonia inventory. Potential control strategies include expansion of rules toreduce ammonia emissions from livestock waste and composting, and c hanging fertilizer formulation and application procedures.
MSC-06: Wood-Burning Fireplaces and Wood Stoves The South Coast does not currently regulate residential wood burning. This measure identifies several potential strategies for evaluation and possible impl ementation to reduce PM10 emissions from new and existing residential fireplaces and wood stoves. U.S EPA has particulate emission standards for wood stoves and firepl ace inserts that are manufactured and sold in the U.S. and ARB has developed a suggested control strategy for emissions from residential wo od combustion.
Several air districts have also developed re sidential wood burning rules. These rules range from programs to disc ourage burning on days with poor air quality, to mandatory installation of lower-emitting wood stoves, tolimiting the installation of wood burning devices in new buildings.
In July 2003, the San Joaquin Valley Dist rict amended its Rule 4901 - Wood Burning Fireplaces and Wood Heaters, to:

 require existing wood stoves be U.S. EPA-ce rtified, removed from the residence, or made inoperable upon sale of a residence;

 set a limit on the number of wood burning dev ices allowed in new subdivisions; and47  prohibit burning in residential wood firepl aces on days with unhealthy air quality (as indicated by a U.S. EPA Air Quality Index > 150).
ARB staff encourages the District to consider strategies for residential wood burning as effective as those in the San Joaquin Valley in developing MSC-06.
TCB-01: Transportation Conformity Backstop MeasureThe attainment year emission budgets for PM10 also serve as t he budgets for future years to ensure that emissions from the transportati on sector are consistent with continued attainment of the standard. However, by 2020 and 2030 increas ed vehicle travel on paved and unpaved roads may result in PM10 emissions from the transportation sector which exceed then 2006 budget. The District has committed to achi eve additional emission reductions of up to 9 and 16 tons per day of PM10 by 2020 and 2030, respectively, if necessary to assist SCAG in its future year conformi ty determinations. These reductions could be achieved through dust controls, vehicle trav el reduction strategies, or other local
measures. The District identified ARB as an implementi ng agency for this measure. ARB staff is not proposing a State commitment for this m easure. However, staff believes it is appropriate for PM10 reductions from regulat ions adopted by the Board be creditable in transportation conformity determinations.
Contingency Measures The 2003 Plan includes the fo llowing contingency measures for PM10:

 CTY-01: Accelerated Implementation of Control Measures -- See Section III.C.1.

 CTY-14: Control of Emissions from Miscellaneous Sources -- This contingency measure would reduce PM10 emissions from weed abatement operations. Potential controls include requiring mowing instead of discing (which churns up the soil), weed abatement vehicle speed lim its, limiting weed abatementto morning hours when winds are lower, and requiring pre-treatm ent of the site with a watering truck.

Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel In September 2000, the District adopted a rule prohibiting the use of diesel fuel with a sulfur content greater than 15 ppm by January 1, 2005, unless ARB adopted a similar rule to be implemented by June 1, 2006. In July 2003, the Board adopted a 15 ppm low-sulfur diesel fuel regulation. The rule will enable the use of advanced exhaust aftertreatment devices, and achieve significant decreases in diesel particulate matter, NOx, and SOx emissions statewide. The AR B limits will achieve 2006 emission reductions in the South Coas t Air Basin beyond those from the District rule. The statewide regulation will also reduce emissions from trucks and off-road equipment that are fueled in ot her areas of California but travel through the Basin.
District staff has expressed concerns t hat the implementation schedule for the ARB regulation (2006 rather than 2005 under the District rule) would leave a shortfall in the progress and attainment demonstrations fo r the PM10 SIP element of the 2003 Plan.48 The District Board Resolution adopting the 2003 Plan requests that ARB offset 6 tpd SOx and PM10 emission reductions that the 2003 Plan had assumed would occur by 2006. This reduction estimate seems to re flect the projected benefits described in the September 2000 South Coast staff report on the District's proposed 15 ppm low sulfur diesel rule. 1 However, the benefits credited in t he 2003 Plan for low-sulfur fuel use are more modest. The 2003 Plan assumes 15 ppm sulfur diesel fuel use for off-road sources beginning on January 1, 2005, but does not assume 15 ppm sulfur diesel for on-road sources until January 1, 2007, six months after the ARB (and national) implementation date. The on-road benefits of the low-sulfur fuel rule far exceed the offroad benefits in 2006.
We conclude that the regulation adopted bythe Board will achieve the emission reductions credited in the 2003 PM10 SIP for progress and attainment. There is no shortfall.

2. Structure of District Commitment

The 2003 Plan includes an enforceable commitm ent to bring each District PM10 control measure to the District Board and meet an emissions reduction target in a certain timeframe. The District Board does not co mmit to adopt each specific control measure or achieve the anticipated emi ssion reductions from each meas ure. However, if a plan measure does not achieve the anticipated em ission reductions, the District must adopt and implement alternate strategies to fulfill the overall Plan commitment on time. The plan commits the District to achieve 2.2 tpd PM10 emission reductions from measures to be adopted in 2003 and 2004, with the reductions to be achieved between 2005 and 2010. The 2003 Plan also commits the Distr ict to adopt measures achieving 2.1 tpd SOx reductions by 2004, with implementati on by 2005. Section III describes the District's enforceable commitment to reduce NOx and VOC emissions. While the District does not explicitly define a SIP commitment for ammonia reductions, measures achieving 10.8 tpd ammonia emission reductions by 2006 were included in the PM10 attainment demonstration and are therefore enforceable.

1 Staff Report - Proposed Amended Rule 431.2: Sulfur Content of Liquid Fuels, South Coast Air Quality Management District, September 6, 2000.49 V. 2003 CARBON MONOXIDE SIP FO R SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN
The CAA requires an area not exceed the federal carbon monoxide standard more than once in a two-year period. The Basin has achieved this air quality milestone by recording no violations of the federal carbon monoxide standard in 2001 and only one violation in 2002. This occurred duri ng stagnant air conditions on January 8, 2002, when the Lynnwood monitoring station near dow ntown Los Angeles recorded an eighthour carbon monoxide concentration of 10.1 ppb, exceeding the standard of 9.5 ppb. Although the South Coast Air Basin meets the cr iteria for attainment, the District has not yet chosen to request redesignation and prepare a maintenance plan. Meanwhile, the 2003 Plan revises the existing a ttainment demonstration.
A. Emission Inventory
The 2003 Plan uses EMFAC2002 to generate the on-road mobile source carbon monoxide inventory. In 2003, cars, trucks, and other on-road mobile sources emitted two-thirds of the total win tertime carbon monoxide emissi ons in the Basin. Off-road equipment such as lawn mowers, forkli fts and generators are t he primary off-road mobile source of carbon monoxide, while re sidential fuel combustion and waste burning and disposal contribute the majority of ca rbon monoxide from st ationary and area-wide sources. ARB motor vehicle regulations have helped reduce ov erall carbon monoxide emissions by almost sixty percent betw een 1990 and 2003. Emissi ons are projected to continue declining significantly due to fl eet turnover. Figure V-1 shows carbon monoxide trends for the Basin by major source category from 1990 to 2020.
Figure V-1 Carbon Monoxide Emission Trends (South Coast Air Basin, Winter planning inventory, tons per day)

B. Attainment Demonstration 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 On-road light-duty vehicles On-road heavy-duty vehicles
Off-road vehicles & equipment

Stationary & area-wide sources50 B. Attainment Demonstration
In 2003, South Coast Air Basin air quality me t the criteria specified in the CAA for attainment of the federal CO standard. The 2003 Plan also uses an October 31- November 1, 1997 episode day and the CAMx ai r quality model to project attainment of the federal carbon monoxide standard beginning in 2003. This episode had an eighthour maximum carbon monoxide concentration of 17 ppb, which was the highest observed carbon monoxide concentration sinc e 1996. The projected maximum eighthour carbon monoxide concentration in the Ba sin in 2002 was 10.0 ppb, similar to the observed concentration at Lynnwood during the January 8, 2002 exceedance. The maximum eight-hour carbon monoxide concent ration for 2003 through 2005 is projected through linear rollback, whereby the proj ected CO concentration is reduced in proportion to projected CO emission reducti ons. With this approach, the maximum predicted eight-hour CO concentration is 9. 4 ppm in 2003, 8.9 ppm in 2004, and 8.4 ppm in 2005. Continued CO emission reducti ons should ensure the region remains in attainment of the federal CO standard after 2005.
C. Control Strategy
The District assigned a contingency m easure to ARB and U.S. EPA -- CTY-04: Enhanced Oxygenated Fuels Content -- toreduce carbon monoxide emissions by increasing the oxygen content of gasoline in the winter. ARB staff is not proposing a State commitment for this measure. ARB staff believes the increasing CO reductions that will be achieved with adopted motor vehi cle and equipment controls as the fleet turns over to cleaner engines provide suffi cient contingency for the 2003 CO SIP.
Regardless of authority, we don’t think the Dis trict’s proposal would be advisable. While increasing fuel oxygen content may tend to decrease CO emissions, it also tends to increase NOx emissions.51 VI. 2003 NITROGEN DIOXIDE SIP FOR THE SOUTH COAST
The South Coast Air Basin was redesignated to attainment for the federal nitrogen dioxide (NO2) standard on July 24, 1998. 1 The 2003 Plan revises the approved 1997 NO2 Maintenance Plan with updated conformity budgets based upon the latest emission inventory and planning assumptions. The 1997 NO2 maintenance plan demonstrated continued maintenance of the standard through 2010. The 2003 Plan demonstrates that NOx emi ssions will continue to decline through 2010 as a result of adopted controls, and that the rate of decline will accelerate after 2006 if the proposed ozone strategy is implemented.

1 Federal Register, July 24, 1998, Volume 68, No. 142.52 VII. 2003 PARTICULATE MATTER SIP FOR COACHELLA VALLEY
The 2003 Coachella Valley PM 10 Plan updates the region's emission inventory and PM10 attainment demonstration.
A. 2003 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan
On August 1, 2003, the District Governi ng Board adopted the 2003 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan, which updates the 2002 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan em ission inventory, attainment demonstration, and conformi ty emission budgets. The 2003 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan does not alter the 2002 plan control strategy.
1. Emission Inventory
The 2003 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan updates the on-road m obile source inventory used in the 2002 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan with an EMFAC200 2-based inventory. The 2003 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan also updat es the fugitive dust inventory based on the methodology improvements described in Se ction IV. As a result, windblown dust estimates for the Coachella Valley have dec reased, from about 31 tpd to about 9 tpd in the year 2000. Paved and unpaved road dus t, and PM10 from construction operations are also about 4 tpd lower.

2. Attainment Demonstration
The Coachella Valley attainment demonstration utilizes a linear rollback approach to model attainment of the 24-hour standard and UAMAERO-LT for the annual average PM10 standard. The 2003 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan utilizes a 1995 base year, an updated emission inventory, and the benefits of the 2002 Coachella Valley PM10 Plan controls, to demonstrate attainment by 2006. Table VII-1 includes a summary of the contribution of various PM10 constituents toPM10 levels in 1995, and in 2006 with and without new plan controls.53 Table VII-1 Base-Year and 2006 Modeled PM10 Concentrations (Coachella Valley, μ g/m3) 1995 Design Value 2006 Without New Controls 2006 With New Controls Source Category

Annual 24-Hour Annual 24-Hour Annual 24-Hour Background 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Transport 8.8 14.2 6.4 14.2 6.3 14.2 Mobile Sources 1.3 3.6 1.3 3.8 1.3 3.8 Construction Dust 0.8 2.7 5.0 18.4 4.5 16.6 Paved Road Dust 4.4 15.8 4.6 16.7 3.6 13.2 Unpaved Road Dust 3.2 11.6 3.2 11.6 2.8 10.1 Agriculture 0.6 2.2 0.5 1.9 0.5 1.9 Windblown Dust 18.3 67.7 18.2 66.7 18.2 66.7 Vegetation Burning 5.9 10.4 4.9 8.7 4.9 8.7 Other 3.4 2.8 4.4 3.6 4.4 3.6 TOTAL 49.7 134.0 51.5 148.5 49.6 141.6

Federal annual standard is 50 μ g/m3; 24-hour standard is 150 μ g/m354 IX. ON-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGETS
The 2003 Plan sets forth the strategy for achieving the federal one-hour ozone, PM10, and CO standards, and maintaining the federal NO2 standard. For on-road mobile sources, Section 176(c) of the CAA requires that trans portation plans and programs do not cause or contribute to any new viol ation of a standard, increase the frequency or severity of any existing violation, or delaythe timely attainment of the air quality standards. In other words, emissions from on-road mobile sources must "conform" to the attainment demonstrat ion contained in the SIP.
U.S. EPA's transportation conformity rule, found in 40 CFR parts 51 and 93, details the requirements for establishing motor vehicle emissions budgets in SIPs for the purpose of ensuring the conformity of transportati on plans and programs with the SIP attainment and progress demonstration. The on-road mo tor vehicle emissions budgets act as a "ceiling" for future on-road mobile source emissions.
Emissions resulting from regional transportation plans and projects must fit within the budgets established in the SIP. A positive c onformity finding is required for federal approval and funding of trans portation improvements.

The on-road motor vehicle emissions estima tes for the 2003 Plan were developed using ARB's on-road mobile source emission fa ctor model, EMFAC2002, in conjunction with the most recent motor vehi cle activity data from SCA G. Emissions forecasts were generated for the summer, winter, and annual average planning inventory using EMFAC2002 for each milestone and attainm ent or maintenance year. The model outputs were then adjusted to account for existing emission reduction programs not reflected in the model. These include: Sm og Check improvements in place as of Fall 2002; the benefits of the Dis trict’s employer rideshare program, and the emission reductions attributable to SCAG's Regional Transportation Plan.
The ozone emissions budgets for VOC and NOx are derived from the adjusted summer planning inventory and the 2010 reductions from near-term defined measures. The PM10 emissions budgets for PM10 and the PM 10 precursors VOC and NOx are derived from the adjusted annual average planning inventory. The CO and NO2 emissions budgets for CO and NOx, respectively, are both derived from the adjusted winter planning inventory. The District and ARB request that U.S. EPA replace the existing emission budgets with the 2003 Plan budgets once the newbudgets are determined to be adequate. Tables VIII-1 through VIII-4 in clude the 2003 Plan motor vehicle emission budgets for ozone, PM10, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide for the South Coast Air Basin. Table VIII-5 shows the PM10 budgets for Coachella Valley.55 Table VIII-1 Ozone Budgets -- South Coast Air Basin (Summer planning, tons per day)

VOC 2005 2008 2010 Baseline EMFAC2002 267.5 233.6 208.6 SCAG TCM Benefits 0.0 -13.7 -15.7 Adjusted EMFAC2002 267.5 219.9 192.8 District Rule 2202 -2.7 -2.1 -1.7 I/M Improvements -2.7 -2.2 -1.9 Adjusted Inventory 262.1 215.6 189.2 New Defined State Measures 0.0 0.0 -34.2 New Local Measures 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mobile Source Emission Budgets* 263 216 156
NOx 2005 2008 2010 Baseline EMFAC2002 522.9 474.9 413.9 SCAG TCM Benefits 0.0 -5.5 -7.8 Adjusted EMFAC2002 522.9 469.4 406.0 District Rule 2202 -2.9 -2.3 -1.8 I/M Improvements -4.2 -3.7 -3.4 Adjusted Inventory 545.8 463.4 400.9 New Defined State Measures 0.0 0.0 -37.4 New Local Measures 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mobile Source Emission Budgets* 546 464 364 * Rounded up to the nearest ton. The ozone budgets for the South Coast Air Ba sin reflect the reductions from adopted measures and the near-term defined measures. When the strategies to achieve the needed long-term emission reductions are ident ified, the District, SCAG, and ARB have agreed to modify the budgets to incorporate any additional reductions expected from on-road motor vehicles. This approach is consistent with U.S. EPA's transportation conformity rule.56 Table VIII-2 PM10 Budgets-- South Coast Air Basin (Annual average, tons per day)

VOC 2003 2006 Baseline EMFAC2002 315.8 363.8 SCAG TCM Benefits 0.0 -8.5 Adjusted EMFAC2002 315.8 255.3 District Rule 2202 -3.5 -2.6 I/M Improvements -1.9 -2.6 Adjusted Inventory 310.4 250.1 New Defined State Measures 0.0 0.0 New Local Measures 0.0 0.0 Mobile Source Emission Budgets* 311 251
NOx 2003 2006 Baseline EMFAC2002 641.8 562.9 SCAG TCM Benefits 0.0 -7.0 Adjusted EMFAC2002 641.8 555.9 District Rule 2202 -4.1 -2.9 I/M Improvements -2.8 -4.1 Adjusted Inventory 634.9 548.9 New Defined State Measures 0.0 0.0 New Local Measures 0.0 0.0 Mobile Source Emission Budgets* 635 549
PM10 2003 2006 Baseline EMFAC2002 18.9 19.9 SCAG TCM Benefits 0.0 -0.6 Adjusted EMFAC2002 18.9 19.3 District Rule 2202 -0.1 -0.1 I/M Improvements 0.0 0.0 Reentrained Road Dust (paved) 136.8 134.9 Reentrained Road Dust (unpaved) 9.7 8.7 Road Construction Dust 2.2 2.2 Adjusted Inventory 167.6 165.0 New Defined State Measures 0.0 0.0 New Local Measures 0.0 0.0 Mobile Source Emission Budgets* 168 166
* Rounded up to the nearest ton.57 Table VIII-3 Carbon Monoxide Budget-- South Coast Air Basin (Winter planning, tons per day)

CO 2002 Baseline EMFAC2002 3402.4 SCAG TCM Benefits 0.0 Adjusted EMFAC2002 3402.4 District Rule 2202 -41.9 I/M Improvements 0.0 Adjusted Inventory 3360.5 New Defined State Measures 0.0 New Local Measures 0.0 Mobile Source Emission Budgets* 3361 *Rounded up to the nearest ton.

Table VIII-4 Nitrogen Dioxide Budgets-- South Coast Air Basin (Winter planning, tons per day)

NOx 2003 Baseline EMFAC2002 692.3 SCAG TCM Benefits 0.0 Adjusted EMFAC2002 692.3 District Rule 2202 -4.4 I/M Improvements -2.8 Adjusted Inventory 685.0 New Defined State Measures 0.0 New Local Measures 0.0 Mobile Source Emission Budgets* 686 * Rounded up to the nearest ton.58 Table VIII-5 PM10 Budgets-- Coachella Valley (Annual average, tons per day)

PM10 2003 2006 Baseline EMFAC2002 0.39 0.42 Reentrained Road Dust (paved) 7.64 5.80 Reentrained Road Dust (unpaved) 4.23 3.68 Road Construction Dust 0.06 0.06 Additional Margin (based on modeling) 0.0 0.97* Mobile Source Emission Budgets 12.3** 10.9*** * Additional margin based on over-attainment of the PM10 standard. ** Represents remaining emissions at the end of 2003. *** Non-transportation emissions represent an additional 19.1 tpd, 0.37 tpd of which are from off-road sources. Non-transportation emissions are shown in case a future SIP revision provides for budget trading between transportation and non-transportation sectors.59 IX. STAFF RECOMMENDATIONS
The 2003 Plan reflects significant progress towards cleaner air for the residents of the South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley. Approval of the SIP elements will incorporate existing measures into t he baseline and make enforceable the new commitments for actions to achieve the f ederal one-hour ozone standard by 2010 in the South Coast Basin, and by 2007 in the Coache lla Valley. Approval of the SIP will also update the strategy to atta in the federal PM10 standards in the Basin and in the Coachella Valley by 2006.

ARB staff recommends that the Board take the following actions and direct the Executive Officer to submit these elements toU.S. EPA as revisions to the California SIP:

 Contingent upon the Board’s approval of the Proposed State and Federal Strategy, approve the ozone element of the 2003 Plan fo r the South Coast Air Basin intended to attain the federal one-hour ozone standard, including t he local control strategy, emission inventories, attainment dem onstration, and motor vehicle emission budgets. The final State and Federal Strat egy entirely replaces the draft State and federal elements in the 2003 Plan.

 Approve the PM10 element of the 2003 Plan for the South Coast Air Basin intended to attain the federal 24- hour and annual standards for PM10, including the local control strategy, emission inventories, a ttainment demonstration, and motor vehicle emissions budgets.

 Approve the carbon monoxide element of the 2003 Plan for the South Coast Air Basin intended to attain the federal eight -hour carbon monoxide standard, including the local control strategy, emission invent ories, attainment demonstration, and motor vehicle emissions budgets.

 Approve the nitrogen dioxide element of t he 2003 Plan for the South Coast Air Basin intended to maintain the federal nitrogen dioxide standard, including emission inventories and motor vehicle emissions budgets.

 Approve the 2003 PM10 Plan for the Coachella Valley intended to attain the federal 24-hour and annual PM10 standards, including the emission inventories, attainment demonstration, and motor vehicle emissions budgets.