1

India 

(co-lead)

Denmark Finland Mexico

(co-lead)

South Africa Spain United States

(co-lead, under review)

Brazil China

21CPP – ACCELERATING THE TRANSITION TO CLEAN, 

EFFICIENT, RELIABLE AND COST-EFFECTIVE POWER SYSTEMS

Evolving Generation

Portfolios Cross Cutting 

Issues: 

Operations, 

Transmission,

Distributed 

Generation 

Market Design

Coordinated Power 

System Planning, 

Policy, and 

Regulation

Electric Vehicles

Smart Grid, EE & 

Demand Response

In-country Technical Assistance 

• Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa

• Similar PST programs with USG and 

foundation support with Colombia, 

Indonesia, Morocco, Vietnam, others

Thought Leadership

Information Exchange & Capacity 

Building

Select Funders and Partners
2

 Goal: replace aging assets with same, newer assets; meet existing fed/state policies

 Impact: Trans. grid improved, but not modernized (same updated equip.), increase carbon

 Tomorrow: central gen. dominates, slightly improved T interconnectivity (one-way system 

communications; some DER), same wholesale/retail markets, objective = least-cost

 Goal: Fully interactive T&D grid and substantial interactive demand (including DR) in 20 yrs

 Impact: Fully optimized, communicating, and modernized T&D grids (planning and ops) 

Tomorrow: Max. grid flexibility (gen., loads, storage, new T&D, power systems ops.); updated 

wholesale /retail markets; Consumer control; objectives=grid flexibility, consumer desires

 Definition: Past a tipping point – measureable grid defection in next 20 years; 

 Impact: Rising costs (same cost over fewer customers) leads to more defection;

 Tomorrow: consumers tired of escalating electricity rates, so decide to disconnect from the 

grid. Assumes full grid defection (not using grid as backup)

 Goal: replace aging generation w/low-carbon, centralized gen.: 1) utility-scale RE, 2) natural 

gas, 3) nuclear, and/or 4) clean coal; (but what can/will utility own differs by region)

 Impact: Slower/decreased carbon output; some DER; curtailment likely; better Trans. grid 

 Tomorrow: Low-carbon, centralized generation dominates in 20 years, improved T 

interconnectivity, updated 5-min. markets, objectives = lowest risk, lowest carbon

 Goal: Growth of distributed energy resources (DER: non-dispatchable DG, distr. storage)

 Impact: Shift towards DG PV (primarily) and storage; some distribution grid improvements 

 Tomorrow: Measurable energy and capacity needs met with DER in 20 years, improved D 

interconnectivity, updated wholesale/retail markets, objective = resilience

Analyzing Driving Factors and Enabling Policies for Future 

Power Transformation Pathways

Low-Carbon, 

Centralized 

Generation

Business as Usual

Rapid Growth 

of DER

Interactivity: 

Grid and Demand

Grid Defection
3

www.nrel.gov

NREL/PR-6A50-73691

Thank you

This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, managed and operated by Alliance for 

Sustainable Energy, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under contract No. DE-AC36-08G029308. Funding 

provided by the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA). The views expressed in the article do not 

necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, 

by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, 

Irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for 

U.S. Government purposes.