C H A P T E R 8

. L I F E

­ C Y C L E C O S T A N D P A Y B A C K P E R I O D A N A L Y S E S

T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

8 .1 I N T R O D U C T I O N

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1

8

. 1 .1 G e n e r a l A p p r o a c h f o r L i f e

­ C y c l e C o s t a n d P a y b a c k P e r i o d A n a l y s e s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1

8

. 1 .2 O v e r v i e w o f L C C a n d P B P I n p u t s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 3

8 .2 L I F E

­ C Y C L E C O S T I N P U TS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 6

8

. 2 .1 D e f i n i t i o n

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 6

8

. 2 .2 T o t a l I n s t a l l e d C o s t I n p u t s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 7

8

. 2

. 2 .1 I n s t a l l a t i o n C o s t s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 8

8

. 2 .3 O p e r a t i n g C o s t I n p u t s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 0

8

. 2

. 3 .1 O p e r a t i n g H o u r s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 1 1

8

. 2

. 3 .2 P o w e r R a t i n g

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 1

8

. 2

. 3 .3 E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 2

8

. 2

. 3 .4 E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 3

8

. 2 .4 L i f e t i m e

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 6

8

. 2 .5 R e p l a c e m e n t C o s t

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 6

8

. 2 .6 A n a l y s i s P e r i o d

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 7

8

. 2 .7 D i s c o u n t R a t e

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 8

8

. 2

. 7 .1 R e s i d e n t i a l D i s c o u n t R a t e

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 8

8

. 2

. 7 .2 C o m m e r c i a l D i s c o u n t R a t e

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 2 2

8

. 2 .8 E f f e c t i v e D a t e o f S t a n d a r d

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 2 5

8

. 2 .9 R e s i d u a l V a l u e

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 2 6

8 .3 P A Y B A C K P E R I O D I N P U T S

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 2 6

8

. 3 .1 D e f i n i t i o n

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 2 6

8

. 3 .2 R e b u t t a b l e P r e s u m p t i o n P a y b a c k P e r i o d

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 2 7

8

. 3 .3 I n p u t s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 2 8

8 .4 L A M P P U R C H A S I NG E V E N T S

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 2 8

8 .5 L I F E

­ C Y C L E C O S T A N D P A Y B A C K P E R I O D R E S U L T S

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 3 0

8

. 5 .1 R e s u l t s f o r G e n e r a l S e r v i c e F l u o r e s c e n t L a m p s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 3 1

8

. 5

. 1 .1 P r o d u c t C l a s s : F o u r

­ f o o t m e d i u m b i p i n ≤ 4

, 5 0 0 K

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 3 1

8

. 5

. 1 .2 P r o d u c t C l a s s : 8

­ F o o t s i n g l e p i n s l i m l i n e ≤ 4

, 5 0 0 K

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 4 3

8

. 5

. 1 .3 P r o d u c t C l a s s : 8

­ f o o t r e c e s s e d d o u b l e c o n t a c t H O ≤ 4

, 5 0 0 K

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 5 1

8

. 5 .2 L i f e

­ C y c l e C o s t R e s u l t s f o r I n c a n d e s c e n t R e f l e c t o r L a m p s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 5 7

8 .6 D E T A I L ED R E S U L TS A ND S E N S I T I V I T Y R U N S

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 6 1

R E F E R E N C ES

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 6 2

L I S T O F T A B L E S

T a b l e 8

. 1 .1 P r o d u c t C l a s s e s A n a l y z e d i n t h e L C C a n d P B P A n a l y s e s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 3

T a b l e 8

. 1 .2 S u m m a r y I n f o r

m a t i o n o f I n p u t s f o r t h e L i f e

­ C y c l e C o s t a n d P a y b a c k

P e r i o d A n a l y s e s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 6

T a b l e 8

. 2 .1 I n p u t s f o r T o t a l I n s t a l l e d C o s t s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 7

8

­ iT a b l e 8

. 2 .2 R e l a m p i n g T i m e s f o r G e n e r a l S e r v i c e F l u o r e s c e n t L a m p s a n d I n c a n d e s c e n t

R e f l e c t o r L a m p s *

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 9

T a b l e 8

. 2 .3 R e l a m p i n g a n d L a m p

­ a n d

­ B a l l a s t L a b o r C o s t f o r G e n e r a l S e r v i c e

F l u o r e s c e n t L a m p s a n d I n c a n d e s c e n t R e f l e c t o r L a m p s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 0

T a b l e 8

. 2 .4 I n p u t s f o r O p e r a t i n g C o s t s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 1 0

T a b l e 8

. 2 .5 A v e r a g e O p e r a t i n g H o u r s b y S e c t o r a n d L a m p T y p e

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 1

T a b l e 8

. 2 .6 E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e s b y C e n s u s D i v i s i o n

, 2 0 0 6

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 2

T a b l e 8

. 2 .7 A v e r a g e P e r c e n t a g e S h a r e s o f H o u s e h o l d D e b t a n d E q u i t y T y p e s

. . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 1 9

T a b l e 8

. 2 .8 A v e r a g e N o m i n a l a n d R e a l I n t e r e s t R a t e s f o r H o u s e h o l d D e b t C l a s s e s

. .. 8

­ 2 0

T a b l e 8

. 2 .9 A v e r a g e N o m i n a l a n d R e a l I n t e r e s t R a t e s f o r H o u s e h o l d E q u i t y T y p e s

.. 8

­ 2 1

T a b l e 8

. 2

. 1 0 S h a r e s a n d I n t e r e s t o r R e t u r n R a t e s U s e d f o r H o u s e h o l d D e b t a n d E q u i t y

T y p e s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 2 1

T a b l e 8

. 2

. 1 1 V a r i a b l e s U s e d t o E s t i m a t e C o m p a n y D i s c o u n t R a t e s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 2 3

T a b l e 8

. 2

. 1 2 R e a l D i s c o u n t R a t e s b y L a m p O w n e r s h i p C a t e g o r y

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 2 4

T a b l e 8

. 2

. 1 3 E s t i m a t e d S h a r e o f L a m p P u r c h a s e s b y O w n e r s h i p C a t e g o r y i n t h e

C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 2 5

T a b l e 8

. 2

. 1 4 L a m p O w n e r s h i p b y S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 2 5

T a b l e 8

. 2

. 1 5 A v e r a g e D i s c o u n t R a t e b y S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 2 5

T a b l e 8

. 4 .1 F r a m e w o r k o f E v e n t

­ T y p e S c e n a r i o s f o r T 1 2 L a m p s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 3 0

T a b l e 8

. 4 .2 F r a m e w o r k o f E v e n t

­ T y p e S c e n a r i o s f o r T8 L a m p s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 3 0

T a b l e 8

. 5 .1 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T h r e e

­ L a m p 4

­ F o o t 4 0 W T 1 2 M e d i u m B i p i n

S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 3 3

T a b l e 8

. 5 .2 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T h r e e

­ L a m p 4

­ F o o t 3 4 W T 1 2 M e d i u m B i p i n

S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 3 6

T a b l e 8

. 5 .3 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a 3

­ L a m p 4

­ f o o t 3 2 W T8 M e d i u m B i p i n S y s t e m

O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 3 9

T a b l e 8

. 5 .4 S u m m a r y o f t h e L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T h r e e

­ L a m p 4

­ F o o t 4 0 W T 1 2

M e d i u m B i p i n S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 4 1

T a b l e 8

. 5 .5 S u m m a r y o f t h e L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T h r e e

­ L a m p 4

­ F o o t 3 4 W T 1 2

M e d i u m B i p i n S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 4 1

T a b l e 8

. 5 .6 S u m m a r y o f t h e L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T h r e e

­ L a m p 4

­ F o o t 3 2 W T8

M e d i u m B i p i n S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 4 2

T a b l e 8

. 5 .7 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ F o o t 7 5 W T 1 2 S i n g l e P i n S l i m l i n e

S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 4 4

T a b l e 8

. 5 .8 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ F o o t 6 0 W T 1 2 S i n g l e P i n S l i m l i n e

S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 4 6

T a b l e 8

. 5 .9 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ F o o t 5 9 W T8 S i n g l e P i n S l i m l i n e

S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 4 8

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 0 S u m m a r y o f t h e L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ F o o t 7 5 W T 1 2

S i n g l e P i n S l i m l i n e S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 4 9

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 1 S u m m a r y o f t h e L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ f o o t 6 0 W T 1 2

S i n g l e P i n S l i m l i n e S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 4 9

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 2 S u m m a r y o f t h e L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ F o o t 5 9 W T8

S i n g l e P i n S l i m l i n e S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 5 0

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 3 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ F o o t 1 1 0 W T 1 2 R e c e s s e d D o u b l e

C o n t a c t H O S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 5 2

8

­ iiT a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 4 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ F o o t 9 5 W T 1 2 R e c e s s e d D o u b l e

C o n t a c t H O S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 5 4

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 5 S u m m a r y o f t h e L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ F o o t 1 1 0 W T 1 2

R e c e s s e d D o u b l e C o n t a c t H O S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 5 6

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 6 S u m m a r y o f t h e L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a T w o

­ L a m p 8

­ F o o t 9 5 W T 1 2

R e c e s s e d D o u b l e C o n t a c t H O S y s t e m O p e r a t i n g i n t h e I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 5 6

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 7 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a 9 0 W P A R 3 8 L a m p O p e r a t i n g i n t h e

C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 5 8

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 8 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a 9 0 W P A R 3 8 L a m p O p e r a t i n g i n t h e R e s i d e n t i a l

S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 5 8

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 1 9 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a 7 5 W P A R 3 8 L a m p O p e r a t i n g i n t h e

C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 5 9

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 2 0 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a 7 5 W P A R 3 8 L a m p O p e r a t i n g i n t h e R e s i d e n t i a l

S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 5 9

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 2 1 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a 5 0 W P A R 3 0 L a m p O p e r a t i n g i n t h e

C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 6 0

T a b l e 8

. 5

. 2 2 L C C a n d P B P R e s u l t s f o r a 5 0 W P A R 3 0 L a m p O p e r a t i n g i n t h e R e s i d e n t i a l

S e c t o r

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 6 0

L I S T O F F I G U R E S

F i g u r e 8

. 1 .1 F l o w D i a g r a m o f I n p u t s f o r t h e D e t e r m i n a t i o n o f L C C a n d P B P

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

­ 5

F i g u r e 8

. 2 .1 R e s i d e n t i a l S e c t o r E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 4

F i g u r e 8

. 2 .2 C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 5

F i g u r e 8

. 2 .3 I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8

­ 1 5

8

­ i iiC H A P T E R 8

. L I F E

­ C Y C L E C O S T A N D P A Y B A C K P E R I O D A N A L Y S E S

8 .1 I N T R O D U C T I O N

T h i s c h a p t e r d e s c r i b e s t h e a n a l y s i s t h e U

. S

. D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y ( D O E) c o n d u c t s t o

e v a l u a t e t h e e c o n o m i c i m p a c t s o n i n d i v i d u a l c o n s u m e r s o f p o s s i b l e e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n

s t a n d a r d s f o r g e n e r a l s e r v i c e f l u o r e s c e n t l a m p s ( G S F L ) a n d i n c a n d e s c e n t r e f l e c t o r l a m p s ( I R L )

. N e w s t a n d a r d s u s u a l l y d e c r e a s e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a n d i n c r e a s e p u r c h a s e c o s t s f o r c o n s u m e r s

. T h i s

c h a p t e r d e s c r i b e s t h e t h r e e m e t r i c s u s e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e i m p a c t o f s t a n d a r d s o n

i n d i v i d u a l c o n s u m e r s :

L i f e

­ c y c l e c o s t ( L C C ) i s t h e t o t a l ( d i s c o u n t e d ) c o n s u m e r c o s t o v e r t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

i n c l u d i n g p u r c h a s e p r i c e

, o p e r a t i n g c o s t s ( i n c l u d i n g e n e r g y e x p e n d i t u r e s )

, a n d

i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t s

.

P a y b a c k p e r i o d ( P B P ) i s t h e n u m b e r o f y e a r s i t t a k e s a c u s t o m e r t o r e c o v e r t h e g e n e r a l l y

h i g h e r p u r c h a s e p r i c e o f a m o r e e n e r g y

­ e f f i c i e n t p r o d u c t t h r o u g h t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t

s a v i n g s o f u s i n g t h e m o r e e n e r g y

­ e f f i c i e n t p r o d u c t

. T h e P B P i s c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e c h a n g e

i n f i r s t c o s t d i v i d e d b y t h e c h a n g e i n o p e r a t i n g c o s t s i n t h e f i r s t y e a r

.

R e b u t t a b l e p a y b a c k p e r i o d i s a s p e c i a l c a s e i n w h i c h t h e P B P i s c a l c u l a t e d b a s e d o n

l a

b o r a t o r y c o n d i t i o n s

, s p e c i f i c a l l y D O E t e s t p r o c e d u r e i n p u t s

. D O E c a l c u l a t e s t h e

a f

o r e m e n t i o n e d L C C a n d P B P u s i n g a r a n g e o f i n p u t s

, w h i c h a r e d e s i g n e d t o r e f l e c t

a c t u a l c o n d i t i o n s

.

S e c t i o n s 8 .2 a n d 8 .3 d i s c u s s i n p u t s t o t h e L C C a n d P B P

, r e s p e c t i v e l y

. S e c t i o n 8 .4

d i s c u s s e s t h e d i f f e r e n t p u r c h a s i n g e v e n t s D O E a n a l y z e s

, w h i c h a f f e c t c o n s u m e r e c o n o m i c s

. S e c t i o n 8 .5 p r e s e n t s t h e r e s u l t s f o r t h e L C C a n d P B P

. K e y v a r i a b l e s a n d c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e

p r e s e n t e d f o r e a c h m e t r i c

. D O E p e r f o r

m s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s d i s c u s s e d h e r e u s i n g a s e r i e s o f

M i c r o s o f t E x c e l ® s p r e a d s h e e t s d e v e l o p e d f o r t h i s r u l e m a k i n g

. S t a k e h o l d e r s a r e i n v i t e d t o

d o w n l o a d a n d e x a m i n e t h e s p r e a d s h e e t s

, w h i c h a r e a v a i l a b l e a t

h t t p : / / w w w

. e e r e

. e n e r g y

. g o v / b u i l d i n g s / a p p l i a n c e

_ s t a n d a r d s / r e s i d e n t i a l / i n c a n d e s c e n t

_ l a m p s

. h t m l

. A p p e n d i x 8 A p r e s e n t s d e t a i l s a n d i n s t r u c t i o n s f o r u s i n g t h e s p r e a d s h e e t s

. A p p e n d i x 8 B p r e s e n t s

s e n s i t i v i t y r e s u l t s a s w e l l a s r e s u l t s o f t h e M o n t e C a r l o m o d e l

.

8

. 1 .1 G e n e r a l A p p r o a c h f o r L i f e

­ C y c l e C o s t a n d P a y b a c k P e r i o d A n a l y s e s

R e c o g n i z i n g t h a t s e v e r a l i n p u t s t o t h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s i s a r e e i t h e r v a r i a b l e o r

u n c e r t a i n

, D O E i n c o r p o r a t e s M o n t e C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n a n d p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s i n t o i t s L C C

a n d P B P m o d e l

. A p p e n d i x 8 B c o n t a i n s a d e t a i l e d s e t o f r e s u l t s u s i n g M o n t e C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n

. D O E i n c o r p o r a t e s b o t h M o n t e C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n a n d p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s b y u s i n g M i c r o s o f t

E x c e l s p r e a d s h e e t s c o m b i n e d w i t h C r y s t a l B a l l ®

, a c o m m e r c i a l l y a v a i l a b l e a d d

­ i n p r o g r a m

.

T h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n i n c r e a s i n g s e l l i n g p r i c e a n d i n c r e a s i n g e n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y i s t h e

p r e d o m i n a n t i n f l u e n c e o n t h e L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s

. H o w e v e r

, o t h e r f a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o t h e

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e c o n s u m e r u s i n g t h e p r o d u c t s a l s o a f f e c t t h e r e s u l t s

. B a s e d o n t h e

8

­ 1g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n

, s e c t o r

, a n d a p p l i c a t i o n i n w h i c h a c o n s u m e r u s e s t h e l a m p s

, f a c t o r s s u c h a s

e n e r g y p r i c e s

, s a l e s t a x

, a n d e n e r g y u s a g e c a n v a r y

. B y u s i n g t h e M o n t e C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n a n d

s e p a r a t e s e n s i t i v i t y r u n s

, D O E a c c o u n t s f o r t h i s v a r i a b i l i t y

.

F o r t h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s

, D O E c o n s i d e r s v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e

. D O E a l s o

m o d e l s v a r i a b i l i t y i n o p e r a t i n g h o u r s b y s e c t o r

, l a m p t y p e

, a n d b u i l d i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s

. B y

d e v e l o p i n g s a m p l e s b y b u i l d i n g t y p e

, D O E c a n p e r f o r

m t h e L C C a n d P B P c a l c u l a t i o n s a n d

a c c o u n t f o r t h e v a r i a b i l i t y i n o p e r a t i n g h o u r s

, e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e

, a n d s a l e s t a x a m o n g a v a r i e t y o f

b u i l d i n g s

. D O E u s e s t h e E n e r g y I n f o r

m a t i o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ’ s ( E I A ) 2 0 0 1 R e s i d e n t i a l E n e r g y

C o n s u m p t i o n S u r v e y ( R E C S )

, 2 0 0 3 C o m m e r c i a l B u i l d i n g s E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n S u r v e y

C B E C S

, a n d 2 0 0 2 M a n u f a c t u r i n g E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n S u r v e y ( M E C S ) t o d e v e l op s a m p l e s b y

b u i l d i n g t y p e

, a s w e l l a s U

. S

. L i g h t i n g M a r k e t C h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n : V o l u m e I ( L M C ) t o d e v e l op t h e

o p e r a t i n g h o u r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s b y a p p l i c a t i o n i n t h o s e b u i l d i n g s

. T h e L C C a n d P B P s p r e a d s h e e t s

p r e s e n t t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e a n a l y s i s a s a v e r a g e v a l u e s

, r e l a t i v e t o t h e b a s e l i n e c o n d i t i o n s

. ( A p p e n d i x 8 B p r e s e n t s m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s u l t s f r o m t h e L C C a n d P B P

a n a l y s i s

, i n c l u d i n g t h e a v e r a g e a n d m e d i a n P B P v a l u e s a n d t h e p e r c e n t a g e s o f t r i a l s w h i c h r e s u l t

i n p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e L C C s )

.

I n t h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s

, D O E c o n s i d e r s m u l t i p l e p a t h w a y s t o e n e r g y s a v i n g s

. G e n e r a l l y

, c o n s u m e r s c a n c h o o s e w h e n m o v i n g u p i n l a m p e f f i c a c y w h e t h e r t o s t a y a t t h e s a m e

r a t e d l a m p w a t t a g e a n d h a v e m o r e l i g h t o u t p u t

, o r m o v e t o a l o w e r w a t t a g e a n d h a v e t h e s a m e o r

r o u g h l y e q u i v a l e n t l i g h t o u t p u t a s t h e b a s e l i n e l a mp a n d l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m

. W h i l e

c o n s u m e r s c l e a r l y w o u l d h a v e o t h e r c h o i c e s i n a d d i t i o n t o t h o s e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e L C C

, D O E

c o n s i d e r s o n l y e n e r g y

­ s a v i n g l a m p d e s i g n s a n d l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t d e s i g n s i n t h e L C C

. O t h e r

c h o i c e s

, s u c h a s s u b s t i t u t i n g a l a m p t h a t i s o u t s i d e t h e s c o p e o f t h i s r u l e m a k i n g ( e

. g

. , e x e m p t e d

6 5 W a t t B R I R L ) o r s u b s t i t u t i n g a l a m p w i t h a h i g h e r e f f i c a c y l a m p t h a t d o e s n o t s a v e e n e r g y a r e

a d d r e s s e d i n t h e n a t i o n a l i m p a c t a n a l y s i s ( N I A ; C h a p t e r 1 0 )

.

F o r G S F L

, D O E c o n s i d e r s v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s t h a t p r o m p t c o n s u m e r s t o b u y a l a m p o r

l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m i n t h e b a s e v e r s u s s t a n d a r d s c a s e s

. S p e c i f i c a l l y

, t h e “ e v e n t ” t h a t

p r o m p t s t h e p u r c h a s e o f a n e w l a m p ( e

. g

., a l a m p f a i l u r e o r a b a l l a s t f a i l u r e ) w i l l i n f l u e n c e t h e

c o s t

­ e f f

e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e c o n s u m e r p u r c h a s e d e c i s i o n

. F o r e x a m p l e

, d e p e n d i n g o n t h e c a n d i d a t e

s t a n d a r d l e v e l ( C S L )

, a c o n s u m e r m a y o r m a y n o t h a v e t o p u r c h a s e a n e w b a l l a s t t o i n s t a l l a

m o r e e f f i c i e n t l a m p

. W h e t h e r t h e c o n s u m e r w o u l d h a v e r e p l a c e d t h e b a l l a s t a b s e n t s t a n d a r d s

a f

f e c t s t h e e c o n o m i c s o f t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n

. D O E, t h e r e f o r e

, b a s e s t h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s

a r o u n d “ l a m p p u r c h a s i n g e v e n t s .” F o r I R L w h e r e n o b a l l a s t i s i n v o l v e d

, D O E s i m p l y a n a l y z e s

l a m p f a i l u r e s c e n a r i o s

. S e c t i o n 8 .4 d i s c u s s e s t h e l a m p p u r c h a s i n g e v e n t s f o r G S F L i n m o r e

d e t a i l

. T h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s s p r e a d s h e e t r e p o r t s r e s u l t s p e r p u r c h a s i n g e v e n t

.

T h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s t i m e p e r i o d f o r t h i s r u l e m a k i n g i s t h e s e r v i c e l i f e o f t h e

l o n g e s t b a s e l i n e l a m p

, o r a m u l t i p l e t h e r e o f

. B y u s i n g t h i s a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

, L C C r e s u l t s a r e m o r e

e a s i l y c o m p a r e d a n d c o n t r a s t e d f o r d i f f e r e n t C S L s

. H o w e v e r

, t o a c c o u n t f o r a n y r e m a i n i n g l a m p

l i f e a t t h e e n d o f t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d a n d c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e F e d e r a l E n e r g y M a n a g e m e n t

P r o g r a m ’ s L i f e

­ C y c l e C o s t i n g M a n u a l i

, D O E d e s i g n a t e s a d i s c o u n t e d r e s i d u a l v a l u e f o r l a m p s o r

b a l l a s t s t h a t h a v e r e m a i n i n g v a l u e

. F o r e x a m p l e

, i f a m o r e e f f i c i e n t l a m p e x p i r e s b e f o r e t h e e n d

o f t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

, D O E a s s u m e s t h a t t h e l a m p is r e p l a c e d d u r i n g t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d a n d

8

­ 2c r e d i t s t h e u n u s e d l a m p l i f e o f t h i s r e p l a c e m e n t l a m p b a c k a s a r e s i d u a l v a l u e a t t h e e n d o f t h e

a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

.

D O E i s c o n d u c t i n g t h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s o n t h e b a s e l i n e l a m p s f r o m t h e

r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p r o d u c t c l a s s e s i d e n t i f i e d i n C h a p t e r 3

. T a b l e 8

. 1 .1 s h o w s t h e s e t o f f o u r

r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p r o d u c t c l a s s e s t h a t D O E i s e v a l u a t i n g i n t h i s a n a l y s i s

.

T a b l e 8

. 1 .1 P r o d u c t C l a s s e s A n a l y z e d i n t h e L C C a n d P B P A n a l y s e s

G e n e r a l S e r v i c e F l u o r e s c e n t L a m p s

4

­ F o o t L i n e a r M e d i u m B i p i n

, ≤ 4

, 5 0 0 K

8

­ F o o t L i n e a r S i n g le P in S l i m l i n e

, ≤ 4

, 5 0 0 K

8

­ F o o t L i n e a r R e c e s s e d D o u b l e

­ C o n t a c t H i g h

­ O u t p u t ( H O )

, ≤ 4

, 5 0 0 K

I n c a n d e s c e n t R e f l e c t o r L a m p s

S t a n d a r d

­ S p e c t r u m

8

. 1 .2 O v e r v i e w o f L C C a n d P B P I n p u t s

A s m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r

, t h e L C C r e p r e s e n t s t h e t o t a l c o n s u m e r e x p e n s e o v e r t h e a n a l y s i s

p e r i o d

, i n c l u d i n g p u r c h a s e e x p e n s e s

, o p e r a t i n g c o s ts ( i n c l u d i n g e n e r g y e x p e n d i t u r e s )

, a n d

i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t s

. D O E d i s c o u n t s f u t u r e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s t o t h e t i m e o f p u r c h a s e a n d s u m s t h e m

o v e r t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

. D u e t o t h e l a r g e v a r i a n c e o f l a m p l i f e t i m e s

, f o r t h i s r u l e m a k i n g

, D O E

b a s e s t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o n t h e l o n g e s t l i f e b a s e l i n e l a m p w i t h i n a p r o d u c t c l a s s

. T h e L C C

c a l c u l a t i o n c r e d i t s b a c k t h e “ r e s i d u a l v a l u e ” o f a l a m p

, o r l a m p a n d b a l l a s t

, i f i t h a s a n y

o p e r a t i n g l i f e r e m a i n i n g a t t h e e n d o f t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

. T h e r e s i d u a l v a l u e i s t h e d i s c o u n t e d

t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t o f a l a m p

, o r l a m p a n d b a l l a s t

, m u l t i p l i e d b y t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e r e m a i n i n g

l i f e p a s t t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

. T h e P B P r e p r e s e n t s t h e n u m b e r o f y e a r s i t t a k e s c u s t o m e r s t o

r e c o v e r t h e p u r c h a s e p r i c e o f m o r e e n e r g y

­ e f f i c i e n t e q u i p m e n t t h r o u g h l o w e r o p e r a t i n g c o s t s

. T h e P B P i s c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e c h a n g e i n f i r s t c o s t d i v i d e d b y t h e c h a n g e i n o p e r a t i n g c o s t s i n t h e

f i r s t y e a r

.

D O E c a t e g o r i z e s i n p u t s t o t h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s i s a s f o l l o w s : ( 1 ) i n p u t s f o r

e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e p u r c h a s e e x p e n s e

, o t h e r w i s e k n o w n a s t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t ; a n d ( 2 ) i n p u t s f o r

c a l c u l a t i n g t h e e x p e n s e s i n c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e l a m p

, o t h e r w i s e k n o w a s t h e

o p e r a t i n g c o s t

. I n a d d i t i o n

, i n p u t s t o t h e L C C a r e u s e d t o c a l c u l a t e a r e s i d u a l v a l u e f o r a n y

r e m a i n i n g p r o d u c t l i f e t i m e b e y o n d t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d a n d r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t s f o r t h o s e l a m p s

w h o s e s e r v i c e l i f e i s l e s s t h a n t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

.

T h e p r i m a r y i n p u t s f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e l i f e

­ c y c l e c o s t a n d p a y b a c k p e r i o d a r e :

E

n d

­ U s e r P r o d u c t P r i c e : A s d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r 7

, D O E s t a r t s w i t h m a n u f a c t u r e r c a t a l o g

( “ b l u e

­ b o o k ” ) p r i c i n g

, a n d a p p l i e s d i s c o u n t s t o d e v e l op l o w

, m e d i u m

, a n d h i g h p r i c e s f o r

a l l l a m p t y p e s

. T h e e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e s r e p r e s e n t t h e c o n s u m e r p r i c e b e f o r e t a x a n d

i n s t a l l a t i o n

.

S

a l e s T a

x : D O E t h e n a p p l i e s s a l e s t a x t o c o n v e r t t h e e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e t o a f i n a l

p r o d u c t p r i c e i n c l u d i n g s a l e s t a x

. C h a p t e r 7 d e s c r i b e s t h e s a l e s t a x m a r k

up i n d e t a i l

.

8

­ 3I n s t a l l a t i o n C o s t : T h i s i n p u t r e p r e s e n t s t h e c o s t t o t h e c o m m e r c i a l o r i n d u s t r i a l c u s t o m e r s o f

i n s t a l l i n g t h e l a m p s o r l a m p s y s t e m s

. T h e i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t r e p r e s e n t s a l l c o s t s r e q u i r e d t o

i n s t a l l t h e l a m p o r l a m p s y s t e m b u t d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e

. T h e

i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t i n c l u d e s l a b o r a n d o v e r h e a d

. T h u s

, t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t e q u a l s t h e

e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e i n c l u d i n g s a l e s t a x p l u s t h e i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t

.

T h e p r i m a r y i n p u t s f o r c a l c u l a t i n g t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g :

A n n u a l O p e r a t i ng H o u r s : T h e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s a r e t h e h o u r s t h a t a l a m p i s e s t i m a t e d

t o b e i n u s e d u r i n g o n e y e a r

. T h e e n e r g y u s e c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n ( C h a p t e r 6 ) d e t a i l s h o w

D O E d e t e r m i n e s t h e l a m p o p e r a t i n g h o u r s a s a f u n c t i o n o f e n d

­ u s e r s e c t o r

, g e o g r a p h i c

r e g i o n

, a n d b u i l d i n g t y p e

.

P o w e r R a t i n g : T h e p o w e r c o n s u m p t i o n i s t h e s i t e

­ e n e r g y u s a g e r a t e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h

o p e r a t i n g t h e l a m p s y s t e m

. T h e e n e r g y u s e c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n ( C h a p t e r 6 ) d e t a i l s h o w D O E

d e t e r m i n e s t h e p o w e r r a t i n g s f o r t h e l a m p a n d l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m s c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e

a n a l y s e s

.

E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e s : D O E u s e s t h e a v e r a g e p r i c e p e r k i l o w a t t

­ h o u r ( i

. e

., $ / k W h ) p a i d b y

c u s t o m e r s

. D O E d e t e r m i n e s e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s u s i n g n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e r e s i d e n t i a l

,

c o m m e r c i a l

, a n d i n d u s t r i a l e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s f o r t h e s a m p l e c a l c u l a t i o n

. F o r t h e M o n t e

C a r l o d i s t r i b u t i o n

, D O E u s e s a v e r a g e r e s i d e n t i a l

, c o m m e r c i a l

, a n d i n d u s t r i a l v a l u e s f o r

1 3 r e g i o n s a n d l a r g e S t a t e s

. D O E d e v e l o p s a l l e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e i n p u t s u s i n g 2 0 0 5 E I A

d a t a

.

E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d s : D O E u s e s t h e E I A ’ s A n n u a l E n e r g

y O u t l o o k 2 0 0 7 ( A E O 2 0 0 7 ) i i t o

f o r e c a s t e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s

. F o r t h e r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r

, D O E u s e s t h e

A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e t o f o r e c a s t f u t u r e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s

.

L i

f

e t i m e : L i f e t i m e i s t h e t o t a l h o u r s i n o p e r a t i o n a f t e r w h i c h t h e c o n s u m e r r e t i r e s t h e l a m p o r

c o m p o n e n t s o f a l a m p s y s t e m f r o m s e r v i c e

.

D i s c o u n t R a t e : T h e d i s c o u n t r a t e i s t h e r a t e a t w h i c h D O E d i s c o u n t s f u t u r e e x p e n d i t u r e s t o

e s t a b l i s h t h e i r p r e s e n t v a l u e

.

A n a l y

s i

s P e r i o d : A n a l y s i s p e r i o d i s t h e t i m e s p a n o v e r w h i c h D O E c a l c u l a t e s t h e L C C

.

T h e r e s i d u a l v a l u e c a l c u l a t i o n a l s o u s e s a l l o f t h e i n s t a l l e d c o s t i n p u t s a s w e l l a s s e v e r a l

o p e r a t i n g c o s t i n p u t s

. F i g u r e 8

. 1 .1 d e p i c t s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n t h e i n s t a l l e d c o s t

, o p e r a t i n g

c o s t

, a n d r e s i d u a l v a l u e i n p u t s f o r t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e L C C a n d P B P

. I n t h i s f i g u r e

, t h e

r e c t a n g u l a r b o x e s i n d i c a t e t h e i n p u t s

, t h e p a r a l l e l o g r a m s i n d i c a t e i n t e r m e d i a t e c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e s

,

a n d t h e d i a m o n d b o x e s i n d i c a t e t h e a n a l y s i s o u t p u t s ( t h e L C C a n d P B P )

.

8

­ 4E n d

­ U s e r

P r o d u c t P r i c e

S a l e s T a x F i n a l

P r o d u c t

P r i c e I n s t a l l a t i o n

C o s t

T o t a l

I n s t a l l e d

C o s t

E l e c t r i c i t y

P r i c e s A n n u a l

E n e r g y

U s a g e

C o s t P B P

E l e c t r i c i t y

P r i c e T r e n d

D i s c o u n t R a t e

A n a l y s i s

P e r i o d E n e r g y

U s a g e

C o s t O v e r

A n a l y s i s

P e r i o d

R e p l a c e m e n t

C o s t O p e r a t i n g

C o s t O v e r

A n a l y s i s

P e r i o d

R e s i d u a l

V a l u e L C C

P o w e r R a t i n g

O p e r a t i n g

H o u r s

P r o d u c t

L i f

e t i m e S e r v i c e

L i f

e E n e r g y

C o n s u m p t i o n

T o t a l

R e p l a c e m e n t

C o s t C a l c u l a t e d

V a l u e L C C I n p u t L C C

O u t p u t L e g e n d

F i g u r e 8

. 1 .1 F l o w D i a g r a m o f I n p u t s f o r t h e D e t e r m i n a t i o n o f L C C a n d P B P

T a b l e 8

. 1 .2 s u m m a r i z e s t h e i n p u t v a l u e s t h a t D O E u s e s t o c a l c u l a t e t h e L C C a n d P B P f o r

G S F L a n d I R L

. E a c h r o w s u m m a r i z e s t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t i n p u t s

, o p e r a t i n g c o s t

, r e p l a c e m e n t

c o s t

, a n d r e s i d u a l v a l u e i n p u t s

, i n c l u d i n g t h e l i f e t i m e

, d i s c o u n t r a t e

, a n d e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e t r e n d

. D O E c h a r a c t e r i z e s a l l o f t h e t o t a l c o s t i n p u t s w i t h s i n g l e

­ p o i n t v a l u e s

, b u t c h a r a c t e r i z e s s e v e r a l

o f t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t i n p u t s w i t h p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s t h a t c a p t u r e t h e i n p u t ’ s u n c e r t a i n t y

a n d / o r v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e M o n t e C a r l o a n a l y s i s

. T a b l e 8

. 1 .2 a l s o l i s t s t h e c h a p t e r o f t h e T e c h n i c a l

S u p p o r t D o c u m e n t t h a t d e t a i l s t h e i n p u t s

.

8

­ 5T a b l e 8

. 1 .2 S u m m a r y I n f o r m a t i o n o f I n p u t s f o r t h e L i f e

­ C y c l e C o s t a n d P a y b a c k P e r i o d

A n a l y s e s

F a c t o r W e i g h t e d

­ A v e r a g e V a l u e T S D R e f e r e n c e

S e c t i o n

T o t a l I n s t a l l e d C o s t P r i m a r y I n p u t s

E n d

­ U s e r P r o d u c t P r i c e V a r i e s w i t h l a m p a n d b a l l a s t C h a p t e r 7

S a l e s T a x V a r i e s b y c e n s u s r e g i o n C h a p t e r 7

I n s t a l l a t i o n C o s t V a r i e s b y e q u i p m e n t i n s t a l l e d a n d s e c t o r C h a p t e r 8

O p e r a t i n g C o s t P r i m a r y I n p u t s

A n n u a l O p e r a t i n g H o u r s V a r y b y l a m p t y p e

, s e c t o r

, a n d b u i l d i n g t y p e

. C h a p t e r 6

P o w e r R a t i n g V a r i e s w i t h l a m p t y p e

, a n d l a m p o r l a m p

­ a n d

b a l l a s t s y s t e m C h a p t e r 6

E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e s V a r y b y s e c t o r a n d c e n s u s r e g i o n C h a p t e r 8

E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d s V a r y w i t h p r i c e f o r e c a s t s c e n a r io C h a p t e r 8

D i s c o u n t R a te V a r i e s w i t h s e c t o r C h a p t e r 8

A n a l y s i s P e r i o d V a r i e s w i t h b a s e l i n e l a m p a n d a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g

h o u r s

. C h a p t e r 8

R e p l a c e m e n t C o s t a n d R e s i d u a l V a l u e P r i m a r y I n p u t s

T o t a l I n s t a l l e d C o s t V a r i e s w i t h l a m p a n d b a l l a s t, c e n s u s r e g i o n

,

e q u i p m e n t i n s t a l l e d a n d s e c t o r C h a p t e r s 7

, 8

L i f e t i m e V a r i e s w i t h l a m p a n d s y s t e m C h a p t e r s 5

, 8

D i s c o u n t R a te V a r i e s w i t h s e c t o r C h a p t e r 8

A n a l y s i s P e r i o d V a r i e s w i t h b a s e l i n e l a m p a n d a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g

h o u r s

. C h a p t e r 8

S e c t i o n s 8 .2 a n d 8 .3 d i s c u s s t h e i n p u t s d e p i c t e d i n t h i s t a b l e o f i n s t a l l e d c o s t s a n d

o p e r a t i n g c o s t s

.

8 .2 L I F E

­ C Y C L E C O S T I N P U T S

8

. 2 .1 D e f i n i t i o n

L C C i s t h e t o t a l c u s t o m e r c o s t o v e r t h e l i f e o f a p r o d u c t

, i n c l u d i n g t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t s

,

o p e r a t i n g c o s t s

, r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t s

, a n d r e s i d u a l v a l u e

. F u t u r e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a n d r e p l a c e m e n t

c o s t s a r e d i s c o u n t e d t o t h e a n a l y s i s s t a r t y e a r ( 2 0 1 2 ) a n d s u m m e d o v e r t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

. T h e

r e s i d u a l v a l u e ( i f a n y ) i s c r e d i t e d b a c k t o t h e L C C

, i f t h e o p e r a t i n g l i f e o f t h e s t a n d a r d s c a s e

t e c h n o l o g y e x c e e d s t h a t o f t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

. T h e L C C i s d e f i n e d b y t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n :

N OC + RC RV

t t LCC

= IC + 

# ∑

t − N

t = 1 ( 1 + r ) 

## ( 1 + r 

## ) E q

. 8 .1

w h e r e

L C C

= l i f e

­ c y c l e c o s t ( $ )

, I

C

= t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t ( $ )

, N

= a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

,

8

­ 6∑

= s u m o v e r t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

, f r o m y e a r 1 t o y e a r N,

O C

= o p e r a t i n g c o s t ( $ )

, R C

= r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t ( $ )

,

r = d i s c o u n t r a t e

,

t = y e a r f o r w h i c h o p e r a t i n g c o s t o r r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t i s d e t e r m i n e d

, a n d

RV

= r e s i d u a l v a l u e f o r a n a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

, N

.

B e c au s e D O E g a t h e r e d m o s t o f i t s d a t a f o r t h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s i n 2 0 0 6

, D O E

e x p r e s s e s a l l t h e c o s t s i n i t s L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s i n 2 0 0 6 d o l l a r s

.

8

. 2 .2 T o t a l I n s t a l l e d C o s t I n p u t s

T h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t t o t h e c u s t o m e r i s d e f i n e d b y t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n :

IC

= FPP + INST

E q

. 8 .2

w h e r e

F P

P

= f i n a l p r o d u c t p r i c e ( i

. e

., c u s t o m e r p r i c e f o r t h e p r o d u c t o n l y

, i n c l u d i n g

s a l e s t a x )

, e x p r e s s e d i n d o l l a r s

, a n d

I

N

S T

= i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t o r t h e c u s t o m e r p r i c e t o i n s t a l l p r o d u c t s ( i

. e

., t h e c o s t f o r

l a

b o r a n d m a t e r i a l s )

, e x p r e s s e d i n d o l l a r s

.

I n t h e p r o d u c t p r i c e d e t e r m i n a t i o n ( C h a p t e r 7 )

, D O E d e v e l o p s e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e s

a n d s a l e s t a x e s t o d e r i v e f i n a l p r o d u c t p r i c e s

. D O E t h e n a p p l i e s i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t s

, w h e r e

n e c e s s a r y

, t o d e r i v e t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t s f o r u s e i n t h e L C C

. T h e t a b l e b e l o w s h o w s i n p u t s t o

d e t e r m i n e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t s

.

T a b l e 8

. 2 .1 I n p u t s f o r T o t a l I n s t a l l e d C o s t s

E n d

­ U s e r P r o d u c t P r i c e ( $ )

S a l e s T a x ( $ )

I n s t a l l a t i o n C o s t ( $ )

T h e e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e i s t h e a v e r a g e p u r c h a s e p r i c e a c o n s u m e r p a y s b e f o r e s a l e s t a x

f o r l a m p d e s i g n s o r l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t d e s i g n s

. T h e s a l e s t a x r e p r e s e n t s S t a t e a n d l o c a l s a l e s t a x e s

a

p p l i e d t o t h e e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e

. I t i s a m u l t i p l i c a t i v e f a c t o r t h a t i n c r e a s e s t h e e n d

­ u s e r

p r o d u c t p r i c e

. I n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t i s t h e c o s t t o t h e c u s t o m e r o f i n s t a l l i n g t h e l a m p s o r l a m p

s y s t e m s

, a n d o n l y a p p l i e s i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l a n d i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s

. T h e i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t

r e p r e s e n t s a l l c o s t s r e q u i r e d t o i n s t a l l t h e l a m p o r l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m b u t d o e s n o t i n c l u d e

t h e f i n a l p r o d u c t p r i c e

. T h e i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t i n c l u d e s l a b o r a n d o v e r h e a d

. T h u s

, t h e t o t a l

i n s t a l l e d c o s t e q u a l s t h e f i n a l p r o d u c t p r i c e p l u s t h e i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t

. D O E c a l c u l a t e s t h e t o t a l

i n s t a l l e d c o s t f o r t h e l a m p s a n a l y z e d b a s e d o n t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n :

8

­ 7IC

= FPP + INST

E q

. 8 .3

= PRICE × MU + INST

TAX

w h e r e

IC

= t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t

, F

P

P

= f i n a l p r o d u c t p r i c e

, I

N

S T

= i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t

, P

R IC E

= e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e

, a n d

M U T A X = s a l e s t a x m a rk up

C h a p t e r 7 p r o v i d e s d e t a i l o n t h e e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e a n d s a l e s t a x

. D i s c u s s i o n o n t h e

i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t s f o l l o w s

.

8

. 2

. 2 .1 I n s t a l l a t i o n C o s t s

D O E a p p l i e s l a m p a n d b a l l a s t i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t s o n l y t o l a m p s a n d l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t

s y s t e m s i n s t a l l e d i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l a n d i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s

. D O E a s s u m e s t h a t i n t h e r e s i d e n t i a l

s e c t o r

, t h e h o m e o w n e r r e p l a c e s t h e l a m p s a n d i n c u r s n o a d d i t i o n a l l a b o r c h a r g e

.

O n S e p t e m b e r 1 9

, 2 0 0 0

, D O E i s s u e d a f i n a l r u l e e s t a b l i s h i n g e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n

s t a n d a r d s f o r b a l l a s t s ( h e r e a f t e r r e f e r

r e d t o a s ‘ ‘ t h e 2 0 0 0 B a l l a s t R u l e ’ ’ )

. 6 5 F R 5 6 7 4 0 ( S e p t

. 1 9

, 2 0 0 0 ) ; 1 0 C F R 4 3 0

. 2 3 ( m ) ( 4 )

. F o r G S F L

, D O E o b t a i n s e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p r e v a l e n c e o f g r o up

v e r s u s s p o t r e l a m p i n g f r o m t h e 2 0 0 0 B a l l a s t R u l e

. D O E t h e n w e i g h s t h e s p o t a n d g r o up

r e l a m p i n g t i m e s b y t h e p e r c e n t o c c u r r e n c e o f s p o t v e r s u s g r o up r e l a m p i n g t o d e r i v e w e i g h t e d

a v e r a g e d r e l a m p i n g t i m e s

. A c c o r d i n g t o t h e 2 0 0 0 B a l l a s t R u l e

, g r o up r e l a m p i n g o c c u r s

, o n

a v e r a g e

, 2 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e t i m e f o r 4

­ f o o t m e d i u m b i p i n s y s t e m s

, 3 7 p e r c e n t f o r 8

­ f o o t s i n g l e p i n

s l i m l i n e s y s t e m s

, a n d 3 1 p e r c e n t f o r 8

­ f o o t r e c e s s e d d o u b l e c o n t a c t h i g h

­ o u t p u t s y s t e m s

. i i i T h e s e

p e r c e n t a g e s a r e u s e d t o c a l c u l a t e a n a v e r a g e t i m e t o c h a n g e G S F L l a m p d e s i g n s

.

To a c c o u n t f o r i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t s f o r I R L

, D O E u s e s r e l a m p i n g t i m e e s t i m a t e s f r o m t h e R S

M e a n s E l e c t r i c a l C o s t D a t a

, 2 0 0 7 ( R S M e a n s )

. i v T a b l e 8

. 2 .2 l i s t s a v e r a g e l a b o r t i m e s t o i n s t a l l a

l a m p a n d a l a m p a n d b a l l a s t ( o n l y f o r G S F L ) f o r I R L a n d G S F L

.

8

­ 8T a b l e 8

. 2 .2 R e l a m p i n g T i m e s f o r G e n e r a l S e r v i c e F l u o r e s c e n t L a m p s a n d I n c a n d e s c e n t

R e f l e c t o r L a m p s *

L a m p T y p e S p o t R e l a m p

T i m e

m i n u t e s G r o u p R e l a m p

T i m e

m i n u t e s A v e r a g e

R e l a m p

T i m e

m i n u t e s T i m e t o I n s t a ll

L a m p s a n d

B a l l a s t s

m i n u t e s

G e n e r a l S e r v i c e F l u o r e s c e n t L a m p s ( C o m m e r c i a l a n d I n d u s t r i a l)

2

­ L a m p F i x t u r e

­ 4

­ F o o t M e d i u m

B i p in 2 7

. 0 1 4

. 0 2 3

. 8 3 0

. 0

3

­ L a m p F i x t u r e

­ 4

­ F o o t M e d i u m

B i p in 2 7

. 5 1 4

. 5 2 4

. 3 3 5

. 0

2

­ L a m p F i x t u r e

­ 8

­ F o o t S i n g l e P in

S l i m l i n e 2 0

. 5 1 0

. 5 1 6

. 8 5 5

. 0

2

­ L a m p F i x t u r e

­ 8

­ F o o t R e c e s s e d

D o u b le C o n t a c t H i g h

­ O u t p u t 2 6

. 5 1 3

. 5 2 2

. 5 6 0

. 0

I n c a n d e s c e n t R e f l e c t o r L a m p s ( C o m m e r c i a l a n d I n d u s t r i a l)

A ll 4

. 0 N / A

* G S F L l a b o r t i m e s a r e o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e 2 0 0 0 B a l l a s t R u l e

. I R L l a b o r t i m e s a r e o b t a i n e d f r o m R S M e a n s

.

F o r l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t i n s t a l l a t i o n s

, D O E d e r i v e s l a b o r r a t e s f o r e l e c t r i c i a n s a n d h e l p e r s

f r o m R S M e a n s

. L a b o r r a t e s a r e t h e s u m o f t h e w a g e r a t e

, e m p l o y e r

­ p a i d f r i n g e b e n e f i t s ( i

. e

.,

v a c a t i o n p a y

, e m p l o y e r

­ p a i d h e a l t h

, a n d w e l f a r e c o s t s )

, a n d a n y a p p r o p r i a t e t r a i n i n g a n d i n d u s t r y

a d v a n c e m e n t f u n d s c o s t s

. A n e l e c t r i c i a n ’ s a v e r a g e h o u r l y r a t e w i t h o v e r h e a d a n d p r o f i t i s

t y

p i c a l l y $ 6 5

. 3 5

, a n d a h e l p e r ’ s a v e r a g e h o u r l y r a te i s $ 4 2

. 4 0

. D O E a s s u m e s t h a t 5 0 p e r c e n t o f

t h e e l e c t r i c i a n l a b o r r a t e a n d 5 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e h e l p e r l a b o r r a t e c o m p r i s e t h e l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t

i n s t a l l a t i o n r a t e

.

F o r l a m p r e p l a c e m e n t s i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

, D O E a s s u m e s t h a t t h e t a s k i s p e r f o r

m e d

b y a g e n e r a l m a i n t e n a n c e w o r k e r

. T h e l a b o r r a t e o f $ 1 5

. 4 9 ( a d j u s t e d t o 2 0 0 6 $ f r o m $ 1 5

. 0 1 i n

2 0 0 5 ) w a s o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e U

. S

. B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s f o r a G e n e r a l M a i n t e n a n c e

W o r k e r

. v U s i n g t h e s e l a b o r r a t e s a n d t h e l a b o r t i m e s l i s t e d i n T a b l e 8

. 2

. 2

, D O E d e r i v e s t h e

a v e r a g e c o s t t o i n s t a l l a l a m p a n d t h e a v e r a g e c o s t t o i n s t a l l a l a m p a n d b a l l a s t

.

8

­ 9T a b l e 8

. 2 .3 R e l a m p i n g a n d L a m p

­ a n d

­ B a l l a s t L a b o r C o s t f o r G e n e r a l S e r v i c e F l u o r e s c e n t

L a m p s a n d I n c a n d e s c e n t R e f l e c t o r L a m p s

L a m p T y p e R e l a m p i n g L a b o r C o s t L a b o r C o s t t o I n s t a ll

L a m p s a n d B a l l a s t

G e n e r a l S e r v i c e F l u o r e s c e n t L a m p ( C o m m e r c i a l a n d I n d u s t r i a l)

2

­ L a m p F i x t u r e

, 4

­ F o o t M e d i u m B i p i n $ 6

. 1 3 $ 2 6

. 9 4

3

­ L a m p F i x t u r e

, 4

­ F o o t M e d i u m B i p i n $ 6

. 2 6 $ 3 1

. 4 3

2

­ L a m p F i x t u r e

, 8

­ F o o t S i n g le P in S l i m l i n e $ 4

. 3 4 $ 4 9

. 3 9

2

­ L a m p F i x t u r e

, 8

­ F o o t R e c e s s e d D o u b l e

C o n t a c t H i g h

­ O u t p u t $ 5

. 8 0 $ 5 3

. 8 8

I n c a n d e s c e n t R e f l e c t o r L a m p s ( C o m m e r c i a l a n d I n d u s t r i a l)

A ll $ 1

. 0 3 N / A

8

. 2 .3 O p e r a t i n g C o s t I n p u t s

T h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t r e p r e s e n t s t h e c o s t s i n c u r r e d i n t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e l a m p o r l a m p

­ a n d

b a l l a s t s y s t e m

. T a b l e 8

. 2 .4 l i s t s t h e i n p u t s f o r o p e r a t i n g c o s t s

. T h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

, d i s c o u n t

r a t e

, a n d e f f

e c t i v e d a t e o f t h e s t a n d a r d a r e r e q u i r e d f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t a n d f o r

e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t p r e s e n t v a l u e

. T h e e l e c t r i c i t y c o n s u m p t i o n f o r t h e b a s e l i n e a n d

o t h e r C S L s e x a m i n e d e n a b l e c o m p a r i s o n o f s t a n d a r d s ’ o p e r a t i n g c o s t s

.

T a b l e 8

. 2 .4 I n p u t s f o r O p e r a t i n g C o s t s

A n n u a l O p e r a t i n g H o u r s

P o w e r R a t i n g

E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e s

E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d s

D i s c o u n t R a te

A n a l y s i s P e r i o d

T h e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s a r e t h e e s t i m a t e d h o u r s t h a t a l a m p i s i n u s e d u r i n g o n e y e a r

. P o w e r r a t i n g r e f e r s t o t h e r a t e o f s i t e e n e r g y u s a g e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o p e r a t i n g t h e l a m p o r l a m p

a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m

. B o t h t h e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s a n d p o w e r r a t i n g a r e u s e d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e

t o t a l a n n u a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n

. E l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s u s e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s a r e t h e p r i c e p e r

k i l o w a t t

­ h o u r i n c e n t s o r d o l l a r s ( e

. g

., $ / k W h ) p a i d b y e a c h c u s t o m e r f o r e l e c t r i c i t y

. D O E u s e s

e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e t r e n d s t o f o r e c a s t e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s f o r f u t u r e y e a r a n a l y s i s

. T h e s e t r e n d s w i t h

t h e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e a n d a n n u a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n a r e u s e d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e e n e r g y c o s t i n e a c h

y e a r

. D O E d e f i n e s e n e r g y c o s t b y t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n :

OC

= E × EP × EPT

cons

= 

## ( PWR × OH 

## )

× EP × EPT E q

. 8 .4

w h e r e

O C

= o p e r a t i n g c o s t s

, E

c o n s = a n n u a l e n e r g y c o n s u m e d

, E

P

= e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e

,

8

­ 1 0E P T

= e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e t r e n d f a c t o r r e l a t i v e t o 2 0 0 6

, P W R

= p o w e r r a t i n g ( r a t e o f e n e r g y u s e

, m e a s u r e d i n w a t t s )

, a n d

O

H

= a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s

.

T h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h i s s e c t i o n p r o v i d e s i n f o r

m a t i o n a b o u t e a c h o f t h e a b o v e i n p u t

v a r i a b l e s t h a t D O E u s e d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s f o r G S F L a n d I R L

.

8

. 2

. 3 .1 O p e r a t i n g H o u r s

T h e e n e r g y u s e c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n ( C h a p t e r 6 ) d e t a i l s h o w D O E d e t e r m i n e s t h e a n n u a l

e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n f o r b a s e l i n e a n d s t a n d a r d

­ c o m p l i a n t p r o d u c t s

. A n i m p o r t a n t i n p u t t o

d e t e r m i n i n g t h e e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i s t h e t o t a l h o u r s p e r y e a r t h a t t h e p r o d u c t i s i n o p e r a t i o n

. T h e o p e r a t i n g h o u r s a r e a l s o u s e d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e l a m p s e r v i c e l i f e

, w h i c h i s u l t i m a t e l y u s e d i n

c a l c u l a t i n g t h e t o t a l r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t a n d r e s i d u a l v a l u e

.

A s d e s c r i b e d i n C h a p t e r 6

, D O E e s t a b l i s h e s o p e r a t i n g h o u r d i s t r i b u t i o n s f o r G S F L a n d

I R L

. I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h d a t a f r o m L M C

, D O E u s e s d a t a f r o m E I A ’ s C B E C S 2 0 0 3

, R E C S

2 0 0 1

, a n d t h e M E C S 2 0 0 2

. T h e s e E I A s t u d i e s p r o v i d e i n f o r

m a t i o n o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f

b u i l d i n g s w i t h i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b y b u i l d i n g t y p e a n d c e n s u s d i v i s i o n

. D O E a s s o c i a t e s t h e

L M C ’ s o p e r a t i n g h o u r d a t a b y b u i l d i n g t y p e w i t h t h e E I A ’ s d a t a b y b u i l d i n g t y p e a n d c e n s u s

d i v i s i o n t o d e r i v e o p e r a t i n g h o u r s b y c e n s u s d i v i s i o n a n d l a r g e S t a t e s

. T h i s a l l o w e d D O E t o

c o r r e l a t e i t s e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e d i s t r i b u t i o n a n d s a l e s t a x d i s t r i b u t i o n ( s e e C h a p t e r 7 ) w i t h i t s

o p e r a t i n g h o u r d i s t r i b u t i o n b y c e n s u s d i v i s i o n a n d l a r g e S t a t e i n t h e L C C s p r e a d s h e e t

. T a b l e

8

. 2 .5 p r e s e n t s t h e m e a n o p e r a t i n g h o u r s f o r G S F L a nd I R L f o r e a c h s e c t o r

.

T a b l e 8

. 2 .5 A v e r a g e O p e r a t i n g H o u r s b y S e c t o r a n d L a m p T y p e

S e c t o r L a m p C a t e g o r y A v e r a g e A n n u a l O p e r a t i n g H o u r s

h o u r s / y e a r

R e s i d e n t i a l I R L 8 8 4

C o m m e r c i a l G S F L 3

, 4 3 5

I R L 3

, 4 5 1

I n d u s t r i a l G S F L 4

, 7 9 5

I R L 4

, 6 6 4

8

. 2

. 3 .2 P o w e r R a t i n g

A s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e e n e r g y u s e a n d e n d l o a d c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n ( C h a p t e r 6 )

, D O E u s e s t h e

p o w e r r a t i n g ( i n w a t t s ) w i t h t h e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s ( i n h o u r s ) t o c a l c u l a t e t h e a n n u a l e n e r g y

u s a g e ( i n k i l o w a t t h o u r s ) o f t h e l a m p a n d l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t d e s i g n s D O E c o n s i d e r s

.

G

e n e r a l S e r v i c e F l u o r e s c e n t L a m p s

B e c a u s e a f l u o r e s c e n t l a m p r e q u i r e s a b a l l a s t t o o p e r a t e

, D O E a n a l y z e s t h e s e l a m p s a s

s y s t e m s c o n s i s t i n g o f b o t h l a m p s a n d b a l l a s t s

. T h e r e f o r e

, i n b o t h t h e “ l a m p o n l y r e p l a c e m e n t ”

a n d “ l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t r e p l a c e m e n t ” s c e n a r i o s

, t h e s y s t e m i n p u t p o w e r r e p r e s e n t s t h e e n e r g y

8

­ 1 1c o n s u m p t i o n r a t e o f b o t h t h e l a m p s a n d b a l l a s t

, a n d t h e r e f o r e i s d i f f e r e n t t h a n s i m p l y t h e r a t e d

l a m p p o w e r

. W h e n e a c h l a m p i s p a i r e d w i t h b a l l a s t s w i t h d i f f e r i n g b a l l a s t f a c t o r s ( B F s )

, t h e

l a m p s y s t e m s h a v e d i f f e r e n t p o w e r r a t i n g s

. S e e C h a p t e r 6 f o r d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s s h o w i n g p o w e r

r a t i n g s a n d a n n u a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n e s t i m a t e s g i v e n a B F a n d l a m p p o w e r a n d o p e r a t i n g

h o u r s

.

I

n c a n d e s c e n t R e f

l e c t o r L a m p s

B e c a u s e a n I R L l a m p s y s t e m c o n s i s t s o f o n l y t h e l a m p

, t h e s y s t e m ’ s a n n u a l e n e r g y u s e i s

s i m p l y t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e r a t e d p o w e r a n d o p e r a t i n g h o u r s o f t h e l a m p

. D e t a i l e d t a b l e s d e p i c t i n g

t h e p o w e r r a t i n g a n d a n n u a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n f o r a l l o f t h e I R L l a m p d e s i g n s a r e a v a i l a b l e i n

C h a p t e r 6

.

8

. 2

. 3 .3 E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e s

D O E e s t i m a t e s e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s f o r r e s i d e n t i a l

, c o m m e r c i a l

, a n d i n d u s t r i a l c o n s u m e r s i n

e a c h o f t h e 1 3 r e g i o n s a n d l a r g e S t a t e s b y u s i n g E I A F o rm 8 6 1 d a t a

. v i T a b l e 8

. 2 .6 l i s t s t h e 1 3

g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n s

. T h e E I A F o r m 8 6 1 d a t a a r e p u b l i s h e d a n n u a l l y a n d i n c l u d e a n n u a l

e l e c t r i c i t y s a l e s i n k i l o w a t t h o u r s ; r e v e n u e s f r o m e l e c t r i c i t y s a l e s ; a n d n u m b e r o f c o n s u m e r s f o r

t h e r e s i d e n t i a l

, c o m m e r c i a l

, a n d i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s f o r e v e r y u t i l i t y s e r v i n g f i n a l c o n s u m e r s

. T h e

c a l c u l a t i o n o f a n a v e r a g e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s p r o c e e d s i n t w o s t e p s :

1 ) F o r e a c h u t i l i t y

, e s t i m a t e a n a v e r a g e r e s i d e n t i a l

, c o m m e r c i a l

, o r i n d u s t r i a l p r i c e b y

d i v i d i n g t h e r e s i d e n t i a l

, c o m m e r c i a l

, o r i n d u s t r i a l r e v e n u e s b y r e s i d e n t i a l

, c o m m e r c i a l

, o r

i n d u s t r i a l s a l e s

.

2 ) C a l c u l a t e a r e g i o n a l a v e r a g e p r i c e

, w e i g h t i n g e a c h u t i l i t y w i t h c u s t o m e r s i n a r e g i o n

b y t h e n u m b e r o f r e s i d e n t i a l

, c o m m e r c i a l

, o r i n d u s t r i a l c o n s u m e r s s e r v e d i n t h a t r e g i o n

.

T h e c a l c u l a t i o n u s e s t h e m o s t r e c e n t a v a i l a b l e E I A d a t a a t t h e t i m e t h e a n a l y s i s w a s

c o n d u c t e d

, f r o m 2 0 0 5

. T a b l e 8

. 2 .6 s h o w s t h e r e s u l t s f o r e a c h g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n

. B e c a u s e D O E

c o n d u c t e d t h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s i n 2 0 0 6 $

, i t n e e d e d t o c o n v e r t a l l e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s i n t o

2 0 0 6 $

. To p e r f o r

m t h e n e c e s s a r y m o n e t a r y c o n v e r s i o n

, D O E u s e s t h e c o n s u m e r p r i c e i n d e x ( C P I ) t o c o n v e r t t h e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s f r o m 2 0 0 5 $ t o 2 0 0 6 $

. A s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g

s e c t i o n o n e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e t r e n d s

, D O E n o r m a l i z e s e n e r g y p r i c e s t o 2 0 0 6

. T h e r e f o r e

, t o f o r e c a s t

e n e r g y p r i c e s f o r a n y g i v e n f u t u r e y e a r

, D O E e s t a b l i s h e s e n e r g y p r i c e s f o r 2 0 0 6

. I n T a b l e 8

. 2

. 6

, D O E u s e s d a t a f r o m t h e A E O 2 0 0 7 t o e s t i m a t e t h e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s f o r 2 0 0 6

. v i i D O E m u l t i p l i e s

t h e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e i n 2 0 0 5 b y t h e r a t i o o f t h e A E O 2 0 0 7

­ e s t i m a t e d r e s i d e n t i a l

, c o m m e r c i a l

, o r

i n d u s t r i a l p r i c e s f o r 2 0 0 6 a n d 2 0 0 5

.

T a b l e 8

. 2 .6 E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e s b y C e n s u s D i v i s i o n , 2 0 0 6

8

­ 1 2C e n s u s D i v i s i o n E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e s , * 2 0 0 6

R e s i d e n t i a l C o m m e r c i a l I n d u s t r i a l

2 0 0 6 $ / k W h 2 0 0 6 $ / k W h 2 0 0 6 $ / k W h

N e w E n g l a n d $ 0

. 1 2 9 $ 0

. 1 0 5 $ 0

. 0 9 4

M i d d le A t l a n t ic $ 0

. 1 1 0 $ 0

. 0 8 8 $ 0

. 0 5 9

E a s t N o r th C e n t r a l $ 0

. 0 8 7 $ 0

. 0 7 5 $ 0

. 0 5 4

W e s t N o r th C e n t r a l $ 0

. 0 8 2 $ 0

. 0 7 0 $ 0

. 0 7 5

S o u t h A t l a n t ic $ 0

. 0 8 6 $ 0

. 0 7 4 $ 0

. 0 5 4

E a s t S o u t h C e n t r a l $ 0

. 0 7 8 $ 0

. 0 7 8 $ 0

. 0 6 5

W e s t S o u t h C e n t r a l $ 0

. 0 8 6 $ 0

. 0 7 9 $ 0

. 0 6 5

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. 0 8 9 $ 0

. 0 8 0 $ 0

. 0 5 8

P a c i f ic $ 0

. 0 8 6 $ 0

. 0 8 4 $ 0

. 0 5 0

N e w Y o r k S t a te $ 0

. 1 6 0 $ 0

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U

. S

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. 0 7 0

* D O E c o n v e r ts d o l l a r s to 2 0 0 6 $ b y m u l t i p l y i n g c o s t s in 2 0 0 5 $ b y t h e r a t io o f 2 0 0 6 C P I ( 2 0 1

. 6 ) to 2 0 0 5 C P I

( 1 9 5

. 3 )

. D O E c o n v e r ts t h e p r i c e f o r 2 0 0 5 to t h e p r i c e in 2 0 0 6 b y m u l t i p l y i n g t h e 2 0 0 5 p r i c e b y t h e r a t io o f t h e

a v e r a g e A E O e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e in 2 0 0 6 to t h e a v e r a g e A E O e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e in 2 0 0 5

.

8

. 2

. 3 .4 E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d

T h e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e t r e n d p r o j e c t s t h e f u t u r e c o s t o f e l e c t r i c i t y t o 2 0 3 0

. D O E c a l c u l a t e s

t h e L C C a n d P B P u s i n g t h r e e s e p a r a t e p r o j e c t i o n s f r o m A E O 2 0 0 7 : r e f e r e n c e

, l o w e c o n o m i c

g r o w t h

, a n d h i g h e c o n o m i c g r o w t h

. T h e s e t h r e e c a s e s r e f l e c t t h e u n c e r t a i n t y o f e c o n o m i c

g r o w t h i n t h e f o r e c a s t p e r i o d

. T h e h i g h a n d l o w g r o w t h c a s e s s h o w t h e p r o j e c t e d e f f e c t s o f

a l t e r n a t i v e g r o w t h a s s u m p t i o n s o n e n e r g y m a r k e t s

. D O E n o r m a l i z e s t h e s e t h r e e A E O 2 0 0 7

s c e n a r i o s t o t h e 2 0 0 6 e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e

, a n d t h e n u s e s t h a t e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e f a c t o r t o s c a l e t h e 2 0 0 6

e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s

. F i g u r e 8

. 2 .1 t h r o u g h F i g u r e 8

. 2

. 3 s h o w t h e r e s i d e n t i a l

, c o m m e r c i a l

, a n d

i n d u s t r i a l e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e t r e n d s

, r e s p e c t i v e l y

, b a s e d o n t h e t h r e e A E O 2 0 0 7 p r o j e c t i o n s

. T h e

L C C r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r a r e b a s e d o n t h e A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e

.

8

­ 1 31

. 0 2

1

. 0 0

0

. 9 8

0

. 9 6

0

. 9 0 0

. 9 2 0

. 9 4

2 0 0 0PriceTrend(2006=1)

2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 H i g

h G r o w t h

R

e f

e r e n c e

L o w G r o w t h

2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0

Y

e a r 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5

F i g u r e 8

. 2 .1 R e s i d e n t i a l S e c t o r E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d

8

­ 1 41

. 0 2

1

. 0 0

0

. 9 8

0

. 9 6

0

. 9 4

0

. 8 6 0

. 8 8 0

. 9 0 0

. 9 2

2 0 0 0PriceTrend(2006=1)

2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 H i g

h G r o w t h

R

e f

e r e n c e

L o w G r o w t h

2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5

Y

e a r

F i g u r e 8

. 2 .2 C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d

1 .04

0 .99

0 .94

0 .84 0 .89

2 0 00PriceTrend(2006=1)

2 0 05 2 0 10 H i g

h

G r o w t h

R

e f

e r e n c e

L o w G r o w t h

2 0 15 2 0 20

Y

e ar 2 0 25 2 0 30 2 0 35

F i g u r e 8 .2 .3 I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r E l e c t r i c i t y P r i c e T r e n d

8

­ 1 5I n t he L C C s p r e a d s h e e t , t h e s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e t r e n d s a r e u s e d t o p r o j e c t e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s

i n t o t h e f u t u r e , w h i c h a r e t h e n m u l t i p l i e d b y t he a n n u a l e n e r g y u s a g e

. T h e r e s u l t i n g o p e r a t i n g

c o s t s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n b o t h t he L C C s p r e a d s h e e t s a n d t he L C C r e s u l t s t a b l e s i n t h i s c h a p t e r

.

8 .2.4 L i f e t i m e

D O E d e f i n e s l i f e t i m e a s t h e a g e i n h o u r s i n o p e r a t i o n w h e n a l a m p or b a l l a s t i s r e t i r e d

f r o m s e r v i c e

. D O E u s e s p u b l i s h e d m a n u f a c t u r i n g l i t e r a t u r e w h e n a v a i l a b l e t o d e r i v e l a m p

l i f e t i m e s

. W h e n p u b l i s h e d m a n u f a c t u r i n g l i t e r a t u r e o n l a m p l i f e t i m e i s n o t a v a i l a b l e , D O E

d e r i v e s l a m p l i f e t i m e s i n t h e e n g i n e e r i n g a n a l y s i s ( C h a p t e r 5 )

. F o r G S F L

, D O E b a s e s i t s

c a l c u l a t i o n o f l a m p l i f e t i m e s f or b o t h b a s e a n d s t a n d a r d s c a s e l a m p s o n 3

­ h o u r s t a r t d a t a

. F or

b a l l a s t s , D O E u s e s t h e a v e r a g e b a l l a s t l i f e t i m e u s e d i n t h e 2 0 0 0 B a l l a s t R u l e ( 4 9 ,0 5 4 h r s )

.

L i k e t he c a l c u l a t i o n o f r e l a m p i n g c o s t s , D O E a v e r a g e s t he g r o u p v e r s u s s p o t r e l a m p i ng

i m p a c t o n l i f e t i m e b y t h e i r p e r c e n t o c c u r r e n c e f o r G S F L

. D O E a s s u m e s a l a m p s u b

j e c t t o g r o up

r e

­ l a m p i n g p r a c t i c e s o p e r a t e s f o r

75 p e r c e n t o f i t s r a t e d l i f e

. D O E o b t a i n e d t h i s e s t i m a t e f r om

t h e 2 0 0 0 B a l l a s t R u l e

. D O E t h e n a p p l i e s t h i s l i f e i m p a c t f a c t o r t o t h e r a t e d l i f e t i m e s f r o m t he

m a n u f a c t u r i n g l i t e r a t u r e f o r

t h e G S F L i t i s a n a l y z i n g

. F o r 4

­ f o o t m e d i um b i p i n , t h e a v e r a ge

l i f e t i m e D O E u s e s i n t he a n a l y s i s i s 94 p e r c e n t o f t h e r a t e d l i f e t i m e

. F o r 8

­ f o o t s i n g l e p i n

s l i m l i n e , t h e a v e r a g e l i f e t i m e i s 91 p e r c e n t o f t he r a t e d l i f e t i m e

. F o r 8

­ f o ot r e c e s s e d d o u b l e

c o n t a c t H O , t he a v e r a g e l i f e t i m e i s 92 p e r c e n t o f t h e r a t e d l i f e t i m e

. D O E d o e s n o t a s s u m e a n

i m p a c t o n l i f e t i m e d u e t o g r o up r e

­ l a m p i n g f o r I R L

.

A s d i s c u s s e d i n t h e t e c h n o l o g y a s s e s s m e nt ( C h a p t e r 3 )

, m a n y t e c h n o l o g y o p t i o n s t o

i m p r o v e G S F L a nd I R L e f f i c i e n c i e s o f t e n a f f

e c t t h e l i f e t i m e o f t h e l a m p

. F o r t h i s r e a s o n , t he

b a s e l i n e a n d s t a n d a r d l e v e l d e s i g ns f o r

t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s h a v e a w i d e r a n g e o f

l i f e t i m e s

.

8 .2.5 R e p l a c e m e n t C o s t

A s s t a t e d e a r l i e r , t h e l i f e t i m e i s t h e a g e ( t o t a l h o u r s i n o p e r a t i o n ) a t w h i c h t h e l a m p or

c o m p o n e n t s o f a

l a m p s y s t e m a r e r e t i r e d f

r o m s e r v i c e

. T h e l i f e t i m e p a i r e d w i t h t h e o p e r a t i n g

h o u r s y i e l d s t h e s e r v i c e l i f e o f t h e l a m p i n y e a r s

. R e p l a c e m e n t c o s t s a r e t h e l a b o r a n d m a t e r i a l s

c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e p l a c i n g a l a m p a t t he e n d o f i t s l i f e t i m e

. B y u s i n g t h e s e r v i c e l i f e a nd

r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t , o ne c a n c a l c u l a t e t h e t o t a l r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t e a c h y e a r

.

R e p l a c e m e n t c o s t s a r e t h e l a b o r a n d m a t e r i a l s c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e p l a c i n g a l a m p a t

t h e e n d o f i t s l i f e t i m e

. B e c a u s e t h e l i f e t i m e s o f G S F L a nd I R L l a m p d e s i g n s v a r y w i t h i n e a c h o f

t h e i r r e s p e c t i ve p r o d u c t c l a s s e s , i t i s a t t i m e s n e c e s s a r y t o r e p l a c e a l a m p w i t h i n t h e a n a l y s i s

p e r i o d

. G e n e r a l l y , i f t he a n a l y s i s p e r i o d i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e l a m p s e r v i c e l i f e t i m e f o r

a p a r t i c u l a r

b a s e l i n e o r s t a n d a r d l e v e l d e s i g n , t h o s e l a m p s w i l l r e q u i r e r e p l a c e m e n t t o r e a c h t h e e nd o f t he

a n a l y t i c a l p e r i o d

. E a c h y e a r i n w h i c h a l a m p r e a c h e s t h e e n d o f i t s l i f e , a n e w l a m p i s p u r c h a s e d

a n d i n s t a l l e d a t t he b e g i n n i n g o f t h a t y e a r

, a n d t h e f i r s t c o s t a n d i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t a r e d i s c o u n t e d

b a c k t o t he b a s e y e a r o f t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

. D u r i ng y e a r s i n w h i c h r e p l a c e m e n t i s n e c e s s a r y

, D O E b a s e d t he r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t s o n t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t i n p u t s , a s s e e n i n t h e f o l l o w i ng

e q u a t i o n:

8

­ 16RC

= FPP + INST

L L E q . 8 .5

= PRICE × MU + INST

L TAX L

w h e r e

R C

= r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t , e x p r e s s e d i n d o l l a r s

, F

P

P

L = f i n a l p r o d u c t p r i c e ( p r i c e f o r

t he p r o d u c t o n l y ) e x p r e s s e d i n d o l l a r s

, I

N

S T L = i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t

, P

R IC E

L = e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e e x p r e s s e d i n d o l l a r s , a nd

M U T A X = s a l e s t a x

.

F o r t he y e a r s w h e n n o r e p l a c e m e n t i s n e c e s s a r y , t h e r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t s a r e s e t t o z e r o

. F o r G S F L , t h e r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t s o n l y i n c l u d e t he e n d

­ u s e r p r o d u c t p r i c e o f t h e l a m p a n d t he

i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t o f t h e l a m p , r a t h e r p r i c e s o r c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e e n t i r e l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t

s y s t e m

. F o r t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s , D O E s e l e c t s t i m e p e r i o d s o f a n a l y s i s t h a t d i d n ot

r e q u i r e r e p l a c e m e n t o f t h e b a l l a s t

. F o r t h i s r e a s o n , o n l y l a m p p r i c e a n d l a b o r c o s t s a r e i n c l u d e d

i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f l a b o r c o s t s

. F or I R L

, b e c a u s e t h e r e i s n o b a l l a s t i n t h e a n a l y s i s , t he

r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t i s s i m p l y t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t o f t h e l a m p i t s e l f

.

8 .2.6 A n a l y s i s P e r i od

T he a n a l y s i s p e r i o d i s t h e t i m e s p a n o v e r w h i c h t h e L C C i s c a l c u l a t e d

. T o a c c o u n t f o r

v a r i a b i l i t y i n l i f e t i m e o f l a m p d e s i g n s , D O E d e v e l o p s a c o n s i s t e n t a n a l y t i c a l t i m e

p e r i o d

⎯ c o m p a r i n g m o r e e f f i c a c i o u s l a m p s a g a i n s t a b a s e l i n e l a m p o v e r t h e l i f e t i m e of t he

l o n g e s t

­ l i v e d b a s e l i n e l a m p i n a p a r t i c u l a r p r o d u c t c l a s s

. W h e n t h i s a n a l y s i s p e r i o d i s s h o r t e r

t h a n t h e l i f e t i m e o f t h e r e p l a c e m e n t l a m p , D O E a c c o u n t s f o r

t h e r e m a i n i ng l i f e o f t he

r e p l a c e m e n t l a m p a s a r e s i d u a l v a l u e

. W h e n t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d i s l o n g e r t h a n t h e l i f e t i m e o f t he

r e p l a c e m e n t l a m p

, a s e c o n d r e p l a c e m e n t l a m p i s i n s t a l l e d , a n d i f a n y o p e r a t i n g l i f e o f t h a t

s e c o n d r e p l a c e m e n t l a m p r e m a i n s a t t h e e n d o f t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d , t h e n i t s r e s i d u a l v a l ue i s

a d d e d b a c k i n t o t he L C C

. B y u s i n g t h e a v e r a g e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s p a i r e d w i t h p u b l i s h e d

l a m p l i f e t i m e s , D O E c a l c u l a t e s t h e l a m p s e r v i c e l i f e t i m e i n y e a r s

.

D O E b a s e s t he a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o n t h e l o n g e s t b a s e l i n e l a m p l i f e i n a c e r t a i n p r o d u c t c l a s s

d i v i d e d b y t he a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s o f t h a t l a m p

. I f t h e u s e r c h o o s e s t o r u n t he L C C u s i n g

w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e v a l u e s ( i .e ., i n “ s a m p l e c a l c u l a t i o n ” m o d e ) , t h e n t he a n a l y s i s p e r i o d i s b a s e d on

t h e l o n g e s t b a s e l i n e l a m p l i f e d i v i d e d b y t he a v e r a g e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s f o r

t h a t l a m p i n a

c h o s e n s e c t o r

, o r a

m u l t i p l e t h e r e o f

. F or e x a m p l e , t h e l o n g e s t l i v e d b a s e l i ne I R L l a m p i s 3 ,0 00

h o u r s

. I f t h e u s e r c h o o s e s t o a n a l y z e t h i s l a m p i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r , t h e n t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i od

i s t h e l a m p l i f e t i m e o f 3 ,0 0 0 h o u r s d i v i d e d b y t he a v e r a g e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s of I R L i n t he

c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r , 3 ,4 5 0 h o u r s p e r y e a r , o r 0.9 y e a r s

. T o a l l o w u s e r s t o c o m p a r e t h e c o s t of I R L

l a m p s o v e r m u l t i p l e l a m p l i f e t i m e s , o n e c a n s e l e c t a m u l t i p l e o f t h i s a n a l y s i s p e r i o d ( i .e ., 1 .8 , 2 .7

,

o r

3.6 y e a r s )

. I f t h e u s e r c h o o s e s t o r u n t he L C C u s i n g t h e M o n t e C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n ( i .e ., i n

“ C r y s t a l B a l l ” m o d e ) , t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d i s b a s e d o n t h e l o n g e s t b a s e l i n e l a m p l i f e d i v i d e d b y

t h e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s c h o s e n b y C r y s t a l B a l l ®

. F o r e x a m p l e , t h e u s e r m a y c h o o s e t o r un

I R L i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r u s i n g C r y s t a l B a l l ®

. I f C r y s t a l B a l l ® s e l e c t s a b u i l d i n g t h a t i s u s e d

f o r

r e l i g i o u s w o r s h i p , t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d f

or I R L f o r

t h a t s e l e c t i o n w i l l b e b a s e d o n a l a m p

l i f e t i m e o f 3 ,0 0 0 h o u r s d i v i d e d b y t he a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s o f I R L i n a b u i l d i n g u s e d f or

8

­ 17r e l i g i o u s w o r s h i p 1

, 6 0 9 h o u r s p e r y e a r , o r 1.9 y e a r s

. U s e r s c a n n o t s e l e c t a m u l t i p l e o f t h i s

a n a l y s i s p e r i o d w h e n u s i n g t h e M o n t e C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n.

8 .2.7 D i s c o u n t R a t e

T h e d i s c o u n t r a t e i s t h e r a t e a t w h i c h D O E d i s c o u n t s f u t u r e e x p e n d i t u r e s t o e s t a b l i s h t h e i r

p r e s e n t v a l u e s

. D O E d e r i v e s t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e s f o r

t h e l a m p s r u l e m a k i n g s e p a r a t e l y f or

r e s i d e n t i a l a n d c o m m e r c i a l / i n d u s t r i a l c o n s u m e r s

. F o r r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s u m e r s , D O E e s t i m a t e s t he

d i s c o u n t r a t e b y l o o k i ng a c r o s s a l l p o s s i b l e d e b t o r a s s e t c l a s s e s t h a t m i g ht b e u s e d t o p u r c h a s e

l a m p s

. F o r t h e c o m m e r c i a l a n d i n d u s t r i a l c o n s u m e r s , D O E e s t i m a t e s t h e c o s t o f c a p i t a l f or

c o m m e r c i a l a n d i n d u s t r i a l c o m p a n i e s b y e x a m i n i ng b o t h d e b t a nd e q u i t y c a p i t a l , a n d d e v e l o p s a n

a

p p r o p r i a t e l y w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e c o s t t o t he c o m p a n y o f e q u i t y a n d d e b t f i n a n c i n g

.

8 .2 .7.1 R e s i d e n t i a l D i s c o u n t R a t e

G S F L a nd I R L a r e c o m p a r a t i v e l y l o w

­ c o s t p r o d u c t s f o r

h o u s e h o l d s t o r e p l a c e

. W i t h

r e t a i l p r i c e s u n d e r o n e d o l l a r f

o r

c e r t a i n l a m p t y p e s , h o u s e h o l d s t y p i c a l l y p u r c h a s e l a m p s a s

n e e d e d

. D O E ’ s a p p r o a c h i n v o l v e s i d e n t i f y i n g a l l p o s s i b l e d e b t o r a s s e t c l a s s e s t h a t m i g ht b e

u s e d t o p u r c h a s e r e p l a c e m e n t e q u i p m e n t , i n c l u d i n g h o u s e h o l d a s s e t s t h a t m i g ht b e a f f e c t e d

i n d i r e c t l y

. 1 D O E d o e s n o t i n c l u d e d e b t f r om p r i m a r y m o r t g a g e s a nd e q u i t y o f a s s e t s c o n s i d e r e d

n o n

­ l i q u i d ( s u c h a s r e t i r e m e n t a c c o u n t s ) , s i n c e t h e s e w o u l d l i k e l y n ot b e u s e d t o f i n a n c e

r e p l a c e m e n t l a m p p u r c h a s e s

. D O E e s t i m a t e s t h e a v e r a g e s h a r e s o f t h e v a r i o u s d e b t a n d e q u i t y

c l a s s e s i n t h e a v e r a g e U

. S . h o u s e h o l d e q u i t y a nd d e b t p o r t f o l i o s u s i n g t he F e d e r a l R e s e r v e ’ s

S

u r v e y o f C o n s u m e r F i n a n c e s ( S C F

) d a t a f

o r

1 9 8 9 , 1 9 9 2 , 1 9 9 5 , 1 9 9 8 , 2 0 0 1 , a n d 2 0 0 4

. T a b l e

8 .2 .7 s h o w s t h e a v e r a g e s h a r e s of e a c h c o n s i d e r e d c l a s s

. D O E u s e s t h e m e a n s h a r e of e a c h c l a s s

a c r o s s t h e s i x s u r v e y y e a r s ( 15 y e a r s ) a s t he b a s i s f o r

e s t i m a t i n g h o u s e h o l d f

i n a n c i n g o f l a m p s

a n d l i g h t i n g e q u i p m e n t

.

A n i n d i r e c t e f f e c t w o u ld a r i s e if a h o u s e h o ld s o l d a s s e ts to p a y o f f a l o a n o r c r e d it c a r d d e b t t h a t m i g h t h a v e b e e n

u s e d to f i n a n c e t h e a c t u a l l a m p p u r c h a s e

.

8

­ 18 1T a b l e 8 .2 .7 A v e r a ge P e r c e n t a g e S h a r e s o f H o u s e h o l d D e b t a n d E q u i t y T y p e s

T y p e 1 9 8 9 S C F 1 9 9 2 S C F 1 9 9 5 S C F 1 9 9 8 S C F 2 0 0 1 S C F 2 0 0 4 S C F M e a n

%

H o m e E q u i t y L o a n s 4

. 3 4

. 5 2

. 7 2

. 8 2

. 8 4

. 4 3

. 6

C r e d it C a r d s 1

. 6 2

. 1 2

. 6 2

. 2 1

. 7 2

. 0 2

. 0

O t h e r I n s t a l l m e n t L o a n s 2

. 8 1

. 7 1

. 4 1

. 7 1

. 1 1

. 3 1

. 7

O t h e r R e s i d e n t i a l L o a n s 4

. 4 6

. 9 5

. 2 4

. 3 3

. 1 5

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O t h e r L i n e o f C r e d it 1

. 1 0

. 6 0

. 4 0

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. 3 0

. 5 0

. 5

C h e c k i n g A c c o u n ts 5

. 8 4

. 7 4

. 9 3

. 9 3

. 6 4

. 2 4

. 5

S a v i n g s a n d M o n e y M a r k e t 1 9

. 2 1 8

. 8 1 4

. 0 1 2

. 8 1 4

. 2 1 5

. 1 1 5

. 7

C e r t i f i c a te o f D e p o s it ( C D ) 1 4

. 5 1 1

. 7 9

. 4 7

. 0 5

. 4 5

. 9 9

. 0

S a v i n g s B o n d 2

. 2 1

. 7 2

. 2 1

. 1 1

. 2 0

. 9 1

. 5

B o n d s 1 3

. 8 1 2

. 3 1 0

. 5 7

. 0 7

. 9 8

. 4 1 0

. 0

S t o c k s 2 2

. 4 2 4

. 0 2 5

. 9 3 6

. 9 3 7

. 5 2 8

. 0 2 9

. 1

M u t u a l F u n d s 8

. 0 1 1

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. 1 2 1

. 3 2 3

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. 5

T o t a l 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0

D O E e s t i m a t e s i n t e r e s t o r r e t u r n r a t e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h t y p e of e q u i t y a n d d e b t

. T he

d a t a s o u r c e f o r

t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r

l o a n s

, c r e d i t c a r d s , a n d l i n e s of c r e d i t i s t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r ve

B o a r d ’ s S C F

i n 1 9 8 9 , 1 9 9 2 , 1 9 9 5 , 1 9 9 8 , 2 0 0 1 , a n d 2 0 0 4

. T h e t o p h a l f of T a b l e 8 .2 .8 s h o w s t he

a v e r a g e n o m i n a l i n t e r e s t r a t e s i n e a c h y e a r a n d t h e i n f l a t i o n r a t e s u s e d t o c a l c u l a t e r e a l r a t e s

. F or

h o m e e q u i t y l o a n s , D O E c a l c u l a t e s e f f

e c t i v e i n t e r e s t r a t e s i n a s i m i l a r m a n n e r a s f o r

m o r t g a g e

r a t e s , s i n c e i n t e r e s t o n s u c h l o a n s i s t a x d e d u c t i b l e

. T he b o t t o m h a l f o f t he t a b l e s h o w s t he

a v e r a g e e f f e c t i v e r e a l i n t e r e s t r a t e s i n e a c h y e a r a n d t h e m e a n r a t e a c r o s s a l l t he y e a r s

. S i n c e t he

i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r

e a c h d e b t c a r r i e d b y h o u s e h o l d s i n t h e s e y e a r s w e r e e s t a b l i s h e d o v e r 15 y e a r s

, D O E b e l i e v e s t h e y a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of r a t e s t h a t m a y b e i n e f f

e c t i n 2 0 1 2.

8

­ 19T a b l e 8 .2 .8 A v e r a g e N o m i n a l a n d R e a l I n t e r e s t R a t e s f o r H o u s e h o l d D e b t C l a s s e s

T y p e 1 9 8 9 S C F 1 9 9 2 S C F 1 9 9 5 S C F 1 9 9 8 S C F 2 0 0 1 S C F 2 0 0 4 S C F M e a n

%

N o m i n a l I n t e r e s t R a t e s %

H o m e E q u i t y L o a n s 1 1

. 5 9

. 6 9

. 6 9

. 8 8

. 7 5

. 7 9

. 2

C r e d it C a r d s *

­ ­ 1 4

. 2 1 4

. 5 1 4

. 2 1 1

. 7 1 3

. 6

O t h e r I n s t a l l m e n t L o a n s 9

. 0 7

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. 3

O t h e r R e s i d e n t i a l L o a n s 8

. 8 7

. 6 7

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O t h e r L i n e o f C r e d it 1 4

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I n f l a t i o n r a te 4

. 8 2 3

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. 8 5 2

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R e a l I n t e r e s t R a t e s %

H o m e E q u i t y L o a n s 3

. 8 4

. 3 4

. 4 5

. 8 3

. 8 1

. 9 4

. 0

C r e d it C a r d s *

­ ­ 1 1

. 0 1 2

. 7 1 1

. 1 9

. 1 1 1

. 0

O t h e r I n s t a l l m e n t L o a n s 4

. 9 5

. 8 7

. 0 6

. 6 6

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. 0

O t h e r R e s i d e n t i a l L o a n s 4

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O t h e r L i n e o f C r e d it 9

. 6 9

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. 7

* N o i n t e r e s t r a te d a ta a v a i l a b le f o r c r e d it c a r d s in 1 9 8 9 o r 1 9 9 2

.

T o a c c o u n t f o r

v a r i a t i o n a m o n g n e w h o u s e h o l d s

, D O E s a m p l e s a r a t e f o r

e a c h h o u s e h o l d

f r o m a d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r a t e s f o r

e a c h o f t h e a b o ve d e b t c l a s s e s

. D O E d e v e l o p s a p r o b a b i l i t y

d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r

e a c h d e b t c l a s s b a s e d o n t he S C F

d a t a

. A p p e n d i x 8C p r e s e n t s t he

p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r

e a c h d e b t c l a s s t h a t D O E u s e d i n t he L C C a n d P B P

a n a l y s e s

.

S i m i l a r r a t e d a t a a r e n ot a v a i l a b l e f r o m t he S C F

f

o r

t h e a s s e t c l a s s e s , s o D O E d e r i v e s

d a t a f

o r

t h e s e c l a s s e s f r o m n a t i o n a l h i s t o r i c a l d a t a

. T h e i n t e r e s t r a t e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c e r t i f i c a t e s

o f

d e p o s i t ( C D s )

, v i i i s a v i n gs b o n d s

, i x a nd b o n d s ( A A A c o r p o r a t e b o n d s ) x a r e f r o m F e d e r a l

R e s e r ve B o a r d t i m e

­ s e r i e s d a t a 1 9 7 7

­ 2 0 0 5

. D O E a s s u m e s r a t e s on c h e c k i n g a c c o u n t s t o b e z e r o

. R a t e s o n s a v i n g s a n d m o n e y m a r k e t a c c o u n t s a r e f r o m C o s t o f S a v i n g s I n d e x d a t a c o v e r i n g

1 9 8 4

­ 2 0 0 5

. x i T h e r a t e s f o r s t o c k s a r e t he a n n u a l r e t u r n s o n t h e S t a n d a r d a nd P o o r ’ s ( S & P ) 5 00

1 9 7 7

­ 2 0 0 5

. x i i T h e m u t u a l f u n d r a t e s a r e a w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e s t o c k r a t e s ( t w o

­ t h i r ds

w e i g h t ) a n d t he b o n d r a t e s ( o n e

­ t h i r d w e i g h t ) i n e a c h y e a r f r o m 1 9 7 7 t o 2 0 0 5

. D O E a d j u s t s t he

n o m i n a l r a t e s t o r e a l r a t e s u s i n g t h e a n n u a l i n f l a t i o n r a t e i n e a c h y e a r

. A v e r a g e n o m i n a l a n d r e a l

i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r

t h e c l a s s e s o f a s s e t s a r e s h o w n i n T a b l e 8 .2 .9

. S i n c e t h e i n t e r e s t a n d r e t u r n r a t e s

f o r

e a c h a s s e t t y p e c o v e r a r a n g e o f t i m e , D O E b e l i e v e s t h e y a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f r a t e s t h a t m a y

b e i n e f f

e c t i n 2 0 1 2.

8

­ 20T a b l e 8 .2 .9 A v e r a g e N o m i n a l a n d R e a l I n t e r e s t R a t e s f o r H o u s e h o l d E q u i t y T y p e s

T y p e A v e r a g e N o m i n a l R a t e % A v e r a g e R e a l R a t e %

C h e c k i n g A c c o u n ts

­ ­ 0

. 0

S a v i n g s a n d M o n e y M a r k e t 5

. 5 2

. 3

C D s 6

. 9 2

. 4

S a v i n g s B o n d s 8

. 0 3

. 5

B o n d s 8

. 8 4

. 2

S t o c k s 1 3

. 3 8

. 8

M u t u a l F u n d s 1 1

. 6 7

. 0

T o a c c o u n t f o r

v a r i a t i o n a m o n g n e w h o u s e h o l d s

, D O E s a m p l e s a r a t e f o r

e a c h h o u s e h o l d

f r o m a d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r a t e s f o r

e a c h o f t h e a b o ve a s s e t t y p e s

. D O E d e v e l o p s a n o r m a l p r o b a b i l i t y

d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r

e a c h a s s e t t y p e b y u s i n g t h e m e a n v a l u e a n d s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i on

f r o m t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n

. A p p e n d i x 8C p r e s e n t s t he p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r

e a c h

a s s e t t y p e t h a t D O E u s e d i n t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s i s

T a b l e 8 .2 .1 0 s u m m a r i z e s t h e m e a n r e a l e f f e c t i ve r a t e s o f e a c h t y p e of e q u i t y o r d e b t

. D O E d e t e r m i n e s t he a v e r a g e s h a r e o f e a c h d e b t a n d a s s e t u s i n g S C F

d a t a f o r

1 9 8 9 , 1 9 9 2 , 1 9 9 5

, 1 9 9 8 , 2 0 0 1 , a n d 2 0 0 4

. E a c h y e a r o f S C F d a t a p r o v i d e s t h e d e b t a n d a s s e t s h a r e s f o r

U .S

. h o u s e h o l d s

. D O E a v e r a g e s t h e d e b t a n d a s s e t s h a r e s o v e r t h e s i x y e a r s o f s u r v e y d a t a t o a r r i ve a t

t h e s h a r e s s h o w n b e l o w

. T h e a v e r a g e r a t e a c r o s s a l l t y p e s o f h o u s e h o l d d e b t a n d e q u i t y

,

w e i g h t e d b y t h e s h a r e s o f e a c h c l a s s , i s 5.6 p e r c e n t

.

T a b l e 8 .2 .1 0 S h a r e s a n d I n t e r e s t o r R e t u r n R a t e s U s e d f o r H o u s e h o l d D e b t a n d E q u i t y

T y p e s

T y p e A v e r a g e S h a r e o f H o u s e h o ld

D e b t P l u s E q u i t y

% * M e a n E f f e c t i v e R e a l R a t e % * *

H o m e E q u i t y L o a n s 3

. 6 4

. 0

C r e d it C a r d s 2

. 0 1 1

. 0

O t h e r I n s t a l l m e n t L o a n s 1

. 7 6

. 0

O t h e r R e s i d e n t i a l L o a n s 4

. 9 4

. 6

O t h e r L i n e o f C r e d it 0

. 5 8

. 7

C h e c k i n g A c c o u n ts 4

. 5 0

. 0

S a v i n g s a n d M o n e y M a r k e t A c c o u n t s 1 5

. 7 2

. 3

C D s 9

. 0 2

. 4

S a v i n g s B o n d s 1

. 5 3

. 5

B o n d s 1 0

. 0 4

. 2

S t o c k s 2 9

. 1 8

. 8

M u t u a l F u n d s 1 7

. 5 7

. 0

T o t a l / W e i g h t e d

­ A v e r a g e D i s c o u n t R a t e 1 0 0 5

. 6

* N o t i n c l u d i n g p r i m a r y m o r t g a g e o r r e t i r e m e n t a c c o u n t s

.

* * A d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n a n d

, f o r h o m e e q u i t y l o a n s

, l o a n i n t e r e s t t a x d e d u c t i o n

.

8

­ 218 .2 .7.2 C o m m e r c i a l D i s c o u n t R a t e

M o s t c o m p a n i e s u s e b o t h d e b t a n d e q u i t y c a p i t a l t o f u n d i n v e s t m e n t s ; f o r

m o s t

c o m p a n i e s , t h e r e f o r e , t h e c o s t o f c a p i t a l i s t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e c o s t t o t h e f i r

m o f e q u i t y

a n d d e b t f i n a n c i n g

. x i i i

D O E e s t i m a t e s t h e c o s t o f e q u i t y f i n a n c i n g u s i n g t h e C a p i t a l A s s e t P r i c i ng M o d e l

( C A P M )

. T h e C A P M , a m o n g t h e m o s t w i d e l y u s e d m o d e l s t o e s t i m a t e t h e c o s t o f e q u i t y

f i n a n c i n g , a s s u m e s t h a t t h e c o s t o f e q u i t y i s p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e a m o u n t o f s y s t e m a t i c r i s k

a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a f

i r

m

. F o r e x a m p l e , t h e c o s t o f e q u i t y f

i n a n c i n g t e n d s t o b e h i g h w h e n a f i r

m

f a c e s a l a r g e d e g r e e o f s y s t e m a t i c r i s k , a n d t h e c o s t t e n d s t o b e l o w w h e n t h e f i r

m f a c e s a s m a l l

d e g r e e o f s y s t e m a t i c r i s k.

T h e d e g r e e o f s y s t e m a t i c r i s k f

a c i n g a f i r

m a n d t h e s u b s e q u e n t c o s t of e q u i t y f

i n a n c i ng

a r e d e t e r m i n e d b y s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s , i n c l u d i n g t he r i s k c o e f f i c i e n t o f a f i r

m ( b e t a , or B ) , t he

e x p e c t e d r e t u r n o n r i s k

­ f r e e a s s e t s ( R f ) , a n d t h e a d d i t i o n a l r e t u r n e x p e c t e d o n a s s e t s f a c i n g

a v e r a g e m a r k e t r i s k ( k n o w n a s t h e e q u i t y r i s k p r e m i u m , o r E R P )

. T he b e t a i n d i c a t e s t h e d e g r e e

o f

r i s k a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a g i v e n f i r

m , r e l a t i v e t o t h e l e v e l o f r i s k ( or p r i c e v a r i a b i l i t y ) i n t he

o v e r a l l s t o c k m a r k e t

. B e t a s u s u a l l y v a r y b e t w e e n 0 .5 a n d 2 .0

. A f i r

m w i t h a b e t a o f 0.5 f a c e s

h a l f t h e r i s k o f o t h e r s t o c k s i n t h e m a r k e t ; a f

i r

m w i t h a b e t a o f 2 .0 f a c e s t w i c e t h e o v e r a l l s t o c k

m a r k e t r i s k.

F o l l o w i n g t h i s a p p r o a c h

, t h e c o s t o f e q u i t y f

i n a n c i n g f o r

a p a r t i c u l a r c o m p a n y i s b y t he

e q u a t i o n:

k

e = R f + 

## ( β × ERP 

## ) E q . 8 .6

w h e r e

k

e = t h e c o s t o f e q u i t y f

or a c o m p a n y

, e x p r e s s e d i n d o l l a r s

,

R

f = t h e e x p e c t e d r e t u r n o f t h e r i s k f

r e e a s s e t , e x p r e s s e d i n d o l l a r s

, 

### β

= t h e r i s k c o e f f i c i e n t , a nd

E

R P

= t h e e x p e c t e d e q u i t y r i s k p r e m i u m , e x p r e s s e d i n d o l l a r s

.

T h e c o s t o f d e b t f i n a n c i n g ( k d ) i s t he y i e l d o r i n t e r e s t r a t e p a i d o n m o n e y b o r r o w e d b y a

c o m p a n y ( r a i s e d , f or e x a m p l e

, b y s e l l i n g b o n d s )

. A s d e f i n e d h e r e , t he c o s t o f d e b t i n c l u d e s

c o m p e n s a t i o n f o r

d e f a

u l t r i s k a n d e x c l u d e s d e d u c t i o n s f o r

t a x e s

.

D O E e s t i m a t e s t h e c o s t o f d e b t f o r

c o m p a n i e s b y a d d i n g a r i s k a d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r t o t he

c u r r e nt y i e l d o n l o n g

­ t e r m c o r p o r a t e b o n ds ( t h e r i s k

­ f r e e r a t e )

. T h i s p r o c e d u r e i s u s e d t o

e s t i m a t e c u r r e n t a n d f

u t u r e c o m p a n y c o s t s t o o b t a i n d e b t f i n a n c i n g

. T he a d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r i s

b a s e d o n i n d i c a t o r s of c o m p a n y r i s k , s u c h a s c r e d i t r a t i n g or v a r i a b i l i t y o f s t o c k r e t u r n s

.

T h e d i s c o u n t r a t e o f c o m p a n i e s i s t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e c o s t o f d e b t a nd e q u i t y f

i n a n c i n g

, l e s s e x p e c t e d i n f l a t i o n

. D O E e s t i m a t e s t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e u s i n g t h e e q u a t i o n:

8

­ 22k

= k

e × w

e + k

d × w d E q . 8 .7

w h e r e

k

= t h e ( n o m i n a l ) c o s t o f c a p i t a l

, k

e a nd k d = t h e e x p e c t e d r a t e s o f r e t u r n o n e q u i t y a n d d e b t

,

r e s p e c t i v e l y

, a nd

w e a nd w d = t he p r o p o r t i o n o f e q u i t y a n d d e b t f i n a n c i n g , r e s p e c t i v e l y

.

T h e r e a l d i s c o u n t r a t e d e d u c t s e x p e c t e d i n f l a t i o n f r o m t h e n o m i n a l r a t e

.

T h e e x p e c t e d r e t u r n o n r i s k

­ f r e e a s s e t s , o r t he r i s k

­ f r e e r a t e , i s d e f i n e d b y t h e c u r r e nt

y i e l d o n l o n g

­ t e r m G o v e r n m e nt b o n d s

. x i v T h e E R P r e p r e s e n t s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t he

e x p e c t e d ( a v e r a g e ) s t o c k m a r k e t r e t u r n a n d t h e r i s k

­ f r e e r a t e

. A s T a b l e 8 .2 .1 1 s h o w s , D O E u s e s

a n E R P e s t i m a t e o f 5.5 p e r c e n t , w h i c h i t t o o k f

r o m t h e D a m o d a r a n O n l i n e s i t e ( a p r i v a t e w e b s i t e

a s s o c i a t e d w i t h N e w Y o r k U n i v e r s i t y ’ s S t e r n S c h o o l o f B u s i n e s s , w h i c h a g g r e g a t e s i n f o r

m a t i on

o n c o r p o r a t e f i n a n c e , i n v e s t m e n t , a n d v a l u a t i o n )

. x v

D O E c a l c u l a t e s a n e x p e c t e d i n f l a t i o n o f 2.3 p e r c e n t f r o m t h e a v e r a g e o f f

i v e q u a r t e r s ’

c h a n g e i n G D P p r i c e s

. x v i D O E o b t a i n e d t h e c o s t o f d e b t

, p e r c e n t d e b t f i n a n c i n g , a n d s y s t e m a t i c

f i r

m r i s k f

r o m t h e D a m o d a r a n O n l i ne w e b s i t e

. T a b l e 8 .2 .1 1 s h o w s a v e r a g e v a l u e s a c r o s s a l l

p r i v a t e c o m p a n i e s

. H o w e v e r , t he c o s t o f d e b t

, p e r c e n t d e b t f i n a n c i n g

, a nd s y s t e m a t i c f i r

m r i s k

v a r y b y s e c t o r

.

T a b l e 8 .2 .1 1 V a r i a b l e s U s e d t o E s t i m a t e C o m p a n y D i s c o u n t R a t e s

V a r i a b le S y m b o l A v e r a g e

V a l u e

% S o u r c e

R i s k

­ F r e e A s s e t R e t u r n R f 5

. 5 B l o o m b e r g P r o f e s s i o n a l x v ii

E q u i t y R i s k P r e m i u m E R P 5

. 5 D a m o d a r a n O n l i n e

E x p e c t e d I n f l a t i o n R 2

. 3 U

. S

. B u r e a u o f E c o n o m ic A n a l y s i s

C o s t o f D e b t ( A f t e r T a x ) k d 9

. 0 D a m o d a r a n O n l i n e

P e r c e n t D e b t F i n a n c i n g w d 2 7

. 0 D a m o d a r a n O n l i n e

S y s t e m a t ic F i r m R i s k B 0

. 9 9 D a m o d a r a n O n l i n e

I n t he c o m m e r c i a l b u i l d i n g s e c t o r , l a m p s a r e p u r c h a s e d a n d o w n e d b y c o m m e r c i a l

b u i l d i ng p r o p e r t y o w n e r s , c o m m e r c i a l c o m p a n i e s

, i n d u s t r i a l c o m p a n i e s a n d t h e G o v e r n m e n t

. D O E u s e s a s a m p l e o f 4

, 2 0 7 c o m p a n i e s d r a w n f r o m t h e s e o w n e r c a t e g o r i e s t o r e p r e s e n t l a m p

p u r c h a s e r s

. I t t o o k t h e s a m p l e f r o m t h e l i s t o f c o m p a n i e s i n c l u d e d i n t h e V a l ue L i n e i n v e s t m e nt

s u r v e y x v i i i a n d l i s t e d o n t h e D a m o d a r a n O n l i n e w e b s i t e

. D O E o b t a i n e d t he c o s t o f d e b t , t h e f i r

m

b e t a , t he p e r c e n t o f d e b t a n d e q u i t y f i n a n c i n g , t he r i s k

­ f r e e r e t u r n

, a n d t h e e q u i t y r i s k p r e m i um

f r o m D a m o d a r a n O n l i n e

.

D O E e s t i m a t e s t h e c o s t o f d e b t f i n a n c i n g f o r

t h e s e c o m p a n i e s f r o m t h e l o n g

­ t e r m

G o v e r n m e nt b o n d r a t e a n d t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f t h e s t o c k p r i c e

. x v F o r G o v e r n m e n t

­ o f f i c e

t y

p e o w n e r s , t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e r e p r e s e n t s a n a v e r a g e o f t h e F e d e r a l r a t e a n d t h e S t a t e a n d l o c a l

b o n d r a t e

. D O E d r e w t h e F e d e r a l r a t e d i r e c t l y f

r o m t h e U .S . O f f i c e o f M a n a g e m e n t a nd B u d g e t

d i s c o u n t r a t e f o r

i n v e s t m e n t s i n G o v e r n m e nt b u i l d i n g e n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y

. x i x D O E e s t i m a t e s t he

8

­ 23S t a t e a n d l o c a l d i s c o u n t r a t e f r o m t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e o n S t a t e a n d l o c a l b o n ds b e t w e e n 1 9 77 a nd

2 0 0 1. x x D O E u s e s t h i s i n f o r

m a t i o n t o e s t i m a t e t h e w e i g h t e d

­ a v e r a g e c o s t o f c a p i t a l f o r

t he

s a m p l e o f c o m p a n i e s i n c l u d e d i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l p r o p e r t y o w n e r , c o m m e r c i a l , a n d i n d u s t r i a l

c o m p a n y d a t a b a s e

.

T h e c o s t o f c a p i t a l m a y b e v i e w e d a s t h e d i s c o u nt r a t e t h a t s h o u l d b e u s e d t o r e d u c e t h e

f u t u r e v a l u e o f t y p i c a l c o m p a n y p r o j e c t c a s h f l o w s

. I t i s a n o m i n a l d i s c o u n t r a t e , s i n c e

a n t i c i p a t e d f

u t u r e i n f l a t i o n i s i n c l u d e d i n b o t h s t o c k a nd b o n d e x p e c t e d r e t u r n s

. D e d u c t i n g

e x p e c t e d i n f l a t i o n f r o m t h e c o s t o f c a p i t a l p r o v i d e s e s t i m a t e s o f t h e r e a l d i s c o u n t r a t e b y

o w n e r s h i p c a t e g o r y ( s e e T a b l e 8 .2 .1 2 )

. T h e m e a n r e a l d i s c o u n t r a t e f o r

t h e s e c o m p a n i e s v a r i e s

b e t w e e n 3.3 p e r c e n t ( G o v e r n m e n t o f f i c e s ) a n d 7

. 5 p e r c e nt ( i n d u s t r i a l c o m p a n i e s )

.

T a b l e 8 .2 .1 2 R e a l D i s c o u n t R a t e s b y L a m p O w n e r s h i p C a t e g o r y

O w n e r s h ip C a t e g o r y S I C

C o d e s * M e a n R e a l

D i s c o u n t R a t e

% S t a n d a r d

D e v i a t i o n

% N u m b e r o f

O b s e r v a t i o n s

I n d u s t r i a l C o m p a n i e s 1

­ 4 7

. 5 3

. 2 2

, 4 0 9

C o m m e r c i a l C o m p a n i e s 5

­ 8 7

. 3 4

. 7 1

, 7 7 3

C o m m e r c i a l P r o p e r ty O w n e r s 6 7 2 0 4

. 5 0

. 9 8

G o v e r n m e n t O f f i c e s N / A 3

. 3 2

. 1 2 5

* S I C C o d e s r e f e r to t h e U

. S

. S t a n d a r d I n d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n s y s t e m

. S o u r c e : L a w r e n c e B e r k e l e y N a t i o n a l L a b o r a t o r y ( L B N L ) c a l c u l a t i o n s b a s e d o n f i r m s s a m p l e d f r o m t h e D a m o d a r a n

O n l i n e w e b s i te a s p e r f o r m e d f o r t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n t r a n s f o r m e r s r u l e m a k i n g

.

D O E ’ s a p p r o a c h f o r

e s t i m a t i n g t h e c o s t of c a p i t a l p r o v i d e s a m e a s u r e o f t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e

s p r e a d a s w e l l a s t h e a v e r a g e d i s c o u n t r a t e

. D O E i n f e r s t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e s p r e a d b y o w n e r s h i p

c a t e g o r y f r o m t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , w h i c h r a n g e s b e t w e e n 0.9 p e r c e n t a n d 4.7 p e r c e nt ( T a b l e

8 .2 .1 2 )

.

D i f f e r e n t c o m b i n a t i o n s o f c o m m e r c i a l p r o p e r t y o w n e r s a n d c o m m e r c i a l , i n d u s t r i a l , a nd

G o v e r n m e nt b u y e r s p u r c h a s e t h e l a m p t y p e s c o n s i d e r e d i n t he L C C a n a l y s i s

. A c c o r d i n g l y , D O E

c o n s t r u c t s t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h b u i l d i n g s e c t o r f

r o m d i f f

e r e n t c o m b i n a t i o n s of

c o m m e r c i a l p r o p e r t y o w n e r , c o m m e r c i a l , i n d u s t r i a l , a n d G o v e r n m e n t r a t e s

.

T o e s t i m a t e t h e s h a r e of e a c h o w n e r s h i p c a t e g o r y i n t o t a l c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r p u r c h a s e s of

l a m p s , D O E u s e s t h e s h a r e o f e a c h c a t e g o r y i n t o t a l c o m m e r c i a l b u i l d i n g s q u a r e f o o t a g e w i t h

l i g h t i ng p r o v i d e d b y E I A ’ s 2 0 0 3 C B E C S

. x x i T a b l e 8 .2 .13 p r e s e n t s t h e e s t i m a t e d s h a r e s o f

c o m m e r c i a l l a m p p u r c h a s e s b y o w n e r s h i p c a t e g o r y of c o m m e r c i a l b u i l d i n g s p a c e

.

8

­ 24T a b l e 8 .2 .13 E s t i m a t e d S h a r e of L a m p P u r c h a s e s b y O w n e r s h i p C a t e g o r y i n t h e

C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r

O w n e r s h ip C a t e g o r y P e r c e n t

P r o p e r ty O w n e r s a n d M a n a g e r s 2 2

. 3

I n d u s t r i a l F i r m s 1 0

. 1

C o m m e r c i a l F i r m s 5 4

. 8

G o v e r n m e n t 1 2

. 8

S o u r c e : 2 0 0 3 C B E C S

.

* T h e s h a r e o f t o t a l s q u a r e f o o t a g e o c c u p i e d b y p r o p e r ty o w n e r s is a c t u a l l y 4 4

. 6 %. H o w e v e r

, in s o m e o f t h e s e

b u i l d i n g s

, t h e t e n a n t s p u r c h a s e l a m p s

. D O E a s s u m e s t h a t t h is is t h e c a s e f o r h a lf o f t h e s q u a r e f o o t a g e o c c u p i e d b y

p r o p e r ty o w n e r s

. D O E a l l o c a t e s t h i s q u a n t i t y a m o n g t h e o t h e r c a t e g o r i e s in p r o p o r t i o n to t h e ir s h a r e s o f t o t a l s q u a r e

f o o t a g e

.

T a b l e 8 .2 .14 p r e s e n t s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f l a m p o w n e r s h i p f o r

t he c o m m e r c i a l a nd

i n d u s t r i a l l i g h t i n g s e c t o r s

.

T a b l e 8 .2 .1 4 L a m p O w n e r s h i p b y S e c t or

S e c t o r P r o p e r t y O w n e r s

% I n d u s t r i a l

C o m p a n i e s

% C o m m e r c i a l

C o m p a n i e s

% G o v e r n m e n t

%

I n d u s t r i a l 0 1 0 0 0 0

C o m m e r c i a l 2 2

. 3 1 0

. 1 5 4

. 8 1 2

. 8

S o u r c e s : C o m m e r c i a l, C B E C S ; I n d u s t r i a l, D O E e s t i m a t e

.

D O E e s t i m a t e s d i s c o u nt r a t e d i s t r i b u t i o n s f o r

t he d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s a s a w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e

o f

t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n s f o r

t h e d i f f e r e n t o w n e r s h i p t y p e s

. T h e r e s u l t i n g w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e d i s c o u nt

r a t e s a r e 7.5 p e r c e n t f o r

t h e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r a n d 6 .2 p e r c e nt f o r

t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

. T a b l e

8 .2 .1 5 s u m m a r i z e s t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e d i s c o u nt r a t e s i n a l l t h r e e s e c t o r s

.

T a b l e 8 .2 .1 5 A v e r a g e D i s c o u n t R a t e b y S e c t or

S e c t o r D i s c o u n t R a t e

%

I n d u s t r i a l 7

. 5

C o m m e r c i a l 6

. 2

R e s i d e n t i a l 5

. 6

8 .2.8 E f f

e c t i v e D a t e o f S t a n d a r d

T h e e f f

e c t i v e d a t e i s t he d a t e w h e n a n e w s t a n d a r d b e c o m e s o p e r a t i v e , i .e

., t h e d a t e b y

w h i c h l a m p m a n u f a c t u r e r s m u s t m a n u f a c t u r e p r o d u c t s t h a t c o m p l y w i t h t h e s t a n d a r d

. D O E ’ s

p u b l i c a t i o n o f a

f

i n a l r u l e i n t h i s s t a n d a r d s r u l e m a k i n g i s s c h e d u l e d f o r

c o m p l e t i o n i n J u n e 2 0 0 9

. T h e e f f

e c t i v e d a t e o f a n y n e w e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n s t a n d a r d s f o r

t h e s e l a m p s m u s t b e 3 y e a r s

a f

t e r t he f i n a l r u l e i s p u b l i s h e d , ( 4 2 U .S .C . 6 2 9 5 ( i ) ( 3 ) a n d ( i ) ( 5 ) )

, w h i c h w i l l b e J u n e 2 0 1 2

. D O E

c a l c u l a t e s t he L C C s f or a l l c o n s u m e r s a s i f e a c h w o u l d p u r c h a s e a n e w p r o d u c t i n t he y e a r t he

s t a n d a r d t a k e s e f f

e c t

. H o w e v e r

, D O E b a s e s t h e c o s t o f t h e e q u i p m e n t on t h e m o s t r e c e nt

a v a i l a b l e d a t a ; a l l d o l l a r v a l u e s a r e e x p r e s s e d i n 2 0 0 6 $.

8

­ 258 .2.9 R e s i d u al V a l u e

T he r e s i d u a l v a l u e r e p r e s e n t s t h e r e m a i n i n g v a l ue o f a

l a m p o r a b a l l a s t f r o m t h e e n d of

t he p e r i o d o f a n a l y s i s t o t h e e n d o f t h e s e r v i c e l i f e o f t h e l a m p or b a l l a s t

. S i n c e t h e a n a l y s i s

p e r i o d i s b a s e d i s b a s e d t h e l i f e t i m e o f t h e l o n g e s t

­ l i v e d b a s e l i n e l a m p , D O E a s s u m e s l a m p s w i t h

l i f e t i m e s s h o r t e r t h a n t he a n a l y s i s p e r i o d a r e r e p l a c e d

. T o a c c o u n t f or t he r e m a i n i n g v a l u e o f

t h e s e l a m p s ( w i t h r e m a i n i n g l i f e ) t o t he c o n s u m e r

, t he L C C m o d e l a p p l i e s t h i s r e s i d u a l v a l u e a s a

“ c r e d i t ” a t t h e e n d o f t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d , a n d d i s c o u n t s i t b a c k t o t h e s t a r t o f t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

. T h i s m e t h o d o l o g y i s s h o w n i n E q u a t i o n 8 .1 , w h e r e D O E p r e s e n t s h o w i t i n c o r p o r a t e s r e s i d u a l

v a l u e i n t o i t s L C C c a l c u l a t i o n

. T h e e q u a t i o n f or r e s i d u a l v a l u e i s a s f o l l o w s :

RV

= IC

⋅ ⎧ ⎨ ⎩ SL

− P Analysis 

# [

SL − ( n

⋅ SL ) ⎫ ⎬ ⎭ 

# ]

E q . 8 .8

w h e r e

IC

= t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t o f t he p r o d u c t

,

n = t h e n u m b e r o f r e p l a c e m e n t s w i t h i n t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d

, S

L

= t h e s e r v i c e l i f e o f t he p r o d u c t , a nd

P

A n a l y s i s = t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d.

D O E d e t e r m i n e s t he r e s i d u a l v a l u e o f t he p r o d u c t b y l i n e a r l y p r o r a t i n g t he r e p l a c e m e nt

c o s t ( i .e ., t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t ) b y t he r e m a i n i n g s e r v i c e l i f e

. F o r e x a m p l e

, c o n s i d e r a $ 1 0 l a m p

t h a t h a s a s e r v i c e l i f e of 5 y e a r s a n d i s u s e d t o r e p l a c e a b a s e l i n e l a m p t h a t a s e r v i c e l i f e o f 3

y e a r s

. S i n c e t he b a s e l i n e l a m p d e f i n e s t h e a n a l y s i s p e r i o d , D O E w o u l d c a l c u l a t e t he r e s i d u a l

v a l u e o f t h e l a m p d e s i g n a s ( 2 ÷ 5 ) x $ 1 0 , o r $ 4

. T h u s , t he r e s i d u a l v a l u e i n e q u a t i o n 8 .1 w o u l d

b e $ 4 , a n d t h a t v a l ue w o u l d b e d i s c o u n t e d b a c k t o t h e s t a r t o f t h e t i m e p e r i o d o f a n a l y s i s

. T h i s

e q u a t i o n i s u s e d f

or b o t h l a m p s a nd b a l l a s t s i n s t a l l e d b y c o n s u m e r s

.

8.3 P A Y B A C K P E R I O D I N P U T S

8 .3.1 D e f i n i t i on

T h e P B P i s t h e a m o u n t o f t i m e i t t a k e s t h e c o n s u m e r t o r e c o v e r t he a s s u m e d h i g h e r

p u r c h a s e c o s t o f a

m o r e e n e r g y

­ e f f i c i e nt p r o d u c t a s a r e s u l t o f l o w e r o p e r a t i n g c o s t s

. N u m e r i c a l l y , t h e P B P i s t h e r a t i o o f t h e i n c r e a s e i n p u r c h a s e c o s t ( i .e ., f r o m a l e s s e f f i c i e nt

d e s i g n t o a m o r e e f f i c i e n t d e s i g n ) t o t h e d e c r e a s e i n a n n u a l o p e r a t i ng e x p e n d i t u r e s

. T h i s t y p e of

c a l c u l a t i o n i s k n o w n a s a “ s i m p l e ” P B P

, b e c a u s e i s d o e s n o t t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t c h a n g e s i n

o p e r a t i n g c o s t o v e r t i m e o r t h e t i m e v a l u e o f m o n e y

. T h a t i s , t h e c a l c u l a t i o n i s d o n e a t a n

e f

f e c t i v e d i s c o u n t r a t e of z e r o p e r c e n t

.

T h e e q u a t i o n f o r

P B P i s :

PBP Δ

= Δ IC

OC E q . 8 .9

8

­ 26w h e r e

P B P = p a y b a c k p e r i o d i n y e a r s

, � IC

= d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t b e t w e e n t h e m o r e e f f i c i e nt

s t a n d a r d l e v e l ; e q u i p m e n t ( e f f i c i e n c y l e v e l s 1 , 2

, e t c .) a n d t he

b a s e l i n e ( e f f i c i e n c y l e v e l 0 ) e q u i p m e n t , a nd



### � O C

= d i f f e r e n c e i n a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g c o s t s

.

P B P s a r e e x p r e s s e d i n y e a r s

. P B P s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e l i f e o f t he p r o d u c t m e a n t h a t t he

i n c r e a s e d t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t o f t h e m o r e e f f i c i e nt p r o d u c t i s n o t r e c o v e r e d i n r e d u c e d o p e r a t i ng

c o s t s o v e r t h e l i f e t i m e of t h a t p r o d u c t

. B e c a u s e a l l l a m p d e s i g n s a n d l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t d e s i g n s i n

t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s s a v e e n e r g y a n d t h us y i e l d a p o s i t i ve 

### � O C , P B P s t h a t a r e n e g a t i ve

i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t o f t h e e q u i p m e n t t h a t m e e t s t h e m o r e e f f i c i e n t C S L i s l e s s

t h a n t h a t o f t he b a s e l i n e

.

8 .3.2 R e b u t t a b l e P r e s u m p t i o n P a y b a c k P e r i od

S e c t i o n 3 2 5 ( o ) ( 2 ) ( B ) ( i i i ) o f E P C A e s t a b l i s h e s a r e b u t t a b l e p r e s u m p t i o n t h a t a s t a n d a r d

f or G S F L or I R L i s e c o n o m i c a l l y j u s t i f i e d i f t h e S e c r e t a r y f

i n d s t h a t “ t h e a d d i t i o n a l c o s t t o t he

c o n s u m e r of p u r c h a s i n g a p r o d u c t c o m p l y i n g w i t h a n e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n s t a n d a r d l e v e l w i l l b e

l e s s t h a n t h r e e t i m e s t he v a l u e o f t h e e n e r g y . . . s a v i n g s d u r i n g t h e f i r s t y e a r t h a t t h e c o n s u m e r

w i l l r e c e i ve a s a r e s u l t o f t h e s t a n d a r d , a s c a l c u l a t e d u n d e r t he a p p l i c a b l e t e s t p r o c e d u r e . . . .”

( 4 2 U .S .C . 6 2 9 5 ( o ) ( 2 ) ( B ) ( i i i ) ) T h i s r e b u t t a b l e p r e s u m p t i o n t e s t i s a n a l t e r n a t i ve p a t h t o

e s t a b l i s h i n g e c o n o m i c j u s t i f i c a t i o n , a s c o m p a r e d t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e s e v e n f a c t o r s s e t f o r t h i n

4 2 U .S .C

. 6 2 9 5 ( o ) ( 2 ) ( B ) ( i ) ( I )

­ ( V I I )

.

D O E ’ s l a m p t e s t p r o c e d u r e s m e a s u r e t h e r a t e o f l i g h t o u t p ut p e r u n i t p o w e r c o n s u m p t i on

o f

a

l a m p ( i .e ., l u m e ns p e r w a t t ; l m / W ) r a t h e r t h a n a m e a s u r e m e n t o f e n e r gy c o n s u m p t i o n ( i .e

., a

m e a s u r e m e n t o v e r a

d

u r a t i o n o r o p e r a t i n g t i m e p e r i o d )

. T h e r e f o r e , t o c a l c u l a t e e n e r g y s a v i n g s

f o r

t h e r e b u t t a b l e p r e s u m p t i on p a y b a c k p e r i o d , o n e w o u l d n e e d t o m u l t i p l y t h e r a t e of p o w e r

c o n s u m p t i o n o f a

l a m p t i m e s t h e u s a g e p r o f i l e o f t h a t l a m p

. F o r I R L

, e n e r gy s a v i n g s

c a l c u l a t i o n s i n t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s u s e b o t h t h e r e l e v a n t t e s t p r o c e d u r e s a s w e l l a s t he

r e l e v a n t u s a ge p r o f i l e

. B e c a u s e D O E c a l c u l a t e s p a y b a c k p e r i o d s i n a m e t h o d o l o g y c o n s i s t e nt

w i t h t h e r e b u t t a b l e p r e s u m p t i o n t e s t f or I R L i n t h e L C C a n d p a y b a c k p e r i o d a n a l y s e s , D O E i s

n ot p e r f o r

m i n g a s t a n d

­ a l o n e r e b u t t a b l e p r e s u m p t i o n a n a l y s i s f or I R L , a s i t i s a l r e a d y e m b o d i e d

i n t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s

. F o r G S F L , D O E b e l i e v e s t h a t t h e r a t e o f e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n of

t h e l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m i s a m o r e a c c u r a t e m e a s u r e of r e a l w o r l d p o w e r c o n s u m p t i o n t h a n

t h e r a t e of p o w e r c o n s u m p t i o n o f t h e l a m p a s m e a s u r e d o n a r e f e r e n c e b a l l a s t a s p r e s c r i b e d b y

t h e t e s t p r o c e d u r e

. 2 B e c a u s e c a l c u l a t i o n s of e n e r gy s a v i n g s i n t he L C C a r e b a s e d u n d e r r e a l

w o r l d c o n d i t i o n s , D O E w i l l a l s o r e l y o n s t a n d a r d p a y b a c k p e r i o d s f o r

G S F L

.

2 F o r e x a m p l e

, T 8 l a m p s w h i c h a r e o f t e n o p e r a t e d o n h i g h

­ f r e q u e n c y e l e c t r o n ic b a l l a s t s

, m a y b e t e s t e d a n d

m e a s u r e d o n a l i n e

­ f r e q u e n c y ( 6 0 H z ) r e f e r e n c e b a l l a s t u s i n g D O E ’ s t e s t p r o c e d u r e

, r e s u l t i n g i n d i f f e r e n t

p e r f o r m a n c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a n t h i s l a m p w o u ld e x h i b it i n t h e f i e l d

, o p e r a t e d o n a n e l e c t r o n ic b a l l a s t.

8

­ 278 .3.3 I n p u t s

T h e d a t a i n p u t s t o P B P a r e t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c o s t o f t he p r o d u c t t o t h e c u s t o m e r f

o r

e a c h

C S L a n d t h e a n n u a l ( f i r s t y e a r ) o p e r a t i n g c o s t s f o r e a c h C S L

. T h e i n p u t s t o t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d

c o s t a r e t he f i n a l p r o d u c t p r i c e a n d t h e i n s t a l l a t i on c o s t

. T h e i n p u t s t o t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a r e t he

l a m p o r l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m p o w e r r a t i n g , a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g h o u r s , a n d e l e c t r i c i t y c o s t

. T he

P B P u s e s t h e s a m e i n p u t s a s t he L C C c a l c u l a t i o n d e s c r i b e d i n s e c t i on 8 .2 , e x c e p t t h a t e l e c t r i c i t y

p r i c e t r e n ds a r e n o t r e q u i r e d

. S i n c e t h e P B P i s a “ s i m p l e ” ( u n d i s c o u n t e d ) P B P , t h e r e q u i r e d

e l e c t r i c i t y c o s t i s o n l y f o r t he y e a r i n w h i c h a n e w e f f i c i e n c y s t a n d a r d i s t o t a k e e f f e c t

— i n t h i s

c a s e , 2 0 1 2

. T h e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e D O E u s e s i n t h e P B P c a l c u l a t i o n f or e l e c t r i c i t y c o s t i s t he p r i c e

p r o j e c t e d f

o r

2 0 1 2 , e x p r e s s e d i n 2 0 0 6 $

, b u t n o t d i s c o u n t e d t o 2 0 0 6

. D O E d o e s n o t u s e d i s c o u nt

r a t e s i n t h e P B P c a l c u l a t i o n.

8.4 L A M P P U R C H A S I N G E V E N T S

D O E d e s i g n s t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s f o r

t h i s r u l e m a k i ng a r o u n d s c e n a r i o s w h e r e

c o n s u m e r s n e e d t o r e p l a c e a l a m p ; D O E c o l l e c t i v e l y r e f e r s t o t h e s e a s , “ l a m p p u r c h a s i n g

e v e n t s .” E a c h o f t h e s e e v e n t s m a y p r e s e n t t he c o n s u m e r w i t h a d i f f e r e n t s e t o f l a m p or l a m p

a n d

­ b a l l a s t d e s i g n s a n d t h e r e f o r e a d i f f e r e n t s e t of L C C s a v i n g s f or a c e r t a i n C S L

. F or G S F L

, D O E h a s i d e n t i f i e d f

i v e p o s s i b l e s c e n a r i o s u n d e r w h i c h c o n s u m e r s w o u l d p u r c h a s e a l a m p a nd

p o t e n t i a l l y b e a f f e c t e d b y a n e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n s t a n d a r d

. T h e s e s c e n a r i o s a r e : 1 ) l a m p f a i l u r e

, 2 ) s t a n d a r d s

­ i n d u c e d r e t r o f i t , 3) b a l l a s t f a i l u r e , 4 ) b a l l a s t r e t r o f i t a n d 5 ) n e w c o n s t r u c t i o n/

r e n o v a t i o n

.

F or I R L , d u e t o t he f a c t t h a t t h e r e i s no b a l l a s t i n v o l v e d , t h e s c e n a r i o f o r

t h e i n c a n d e s c e nt

l a m p p r o d u c t c l a s s e s i s s i m p l y a l a m p f a i l u r e

. F o r G S F L , t h e f i v e l a m p p u r c h a s i ng e v e n t s a r e

d e s c r i b e d i n m o r e d e t a i l b e l o w

. I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e s e d e s c r i p t i o n s

, T a b l e 8 .4 .1 a nd T a b l e 8

. 4 .2 s u m m a r i z e t h e l a m p p u r c h a s i n g e v e n t s c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s

.

• L a m p f a i l u r e : T h i s e v e n t r e f l e c t s a s c e n a r i o i n w h i c h a l a m p e i t h e r f

a i l s ( s p o t r e

l a m p i n g ) o r i s a b o u t t o f a i l ( g r o up r e

­ l a m p i n g ) a n d m u s t b e r e p l a c e d

. I n t h e a b s e n c e o f t he

e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n s t a n d a r d

, g e n e r a l l y , a n i d e n t i c a l l a m p w o u l d h a ve b e e n i n s t a l l e d a s a

r e p l a c e m e n t

. H o w e v e r

, u n d e r a n e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n s t a n d a r d , a s t a n d a r d s

­ c o m p l i a n t l a m p

t h a t o p e r a t e s o n t he e x i s t i ng b a l l a s t i s r e q u i r e d

. T h u s , t h e f i r s t c o n s u m e r r e s p o n s e t o a l a m p

f a i l u r e i s e x p e c t e d t o b e a s i m p l e l a m p r e p l a c e m e n t w i t h t h e s a m e t y p e o f l a m p

. A s e c o nd

r e s p o n s e o c c u r s f o r

o w n e r s o f T 1 2 s y s t e m s

. U n l i k e T 8 l a m p s , t h e r e a r e s o m e s t a n d a r d l e v e l s

t h a t a T 1 2 l a m p c a n n ot m e e t

. T h e r e f o r e , a t c e r t a i n l e v e l s , t h e s e u s e r s w o u l d b e r e q u i r e d t o

p u r c h a s e a n e w l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m t o m e e t t h e s t a n d a r d

.

• S t a n d a r d s

­ i n d u c e d r e t r o f i t : T h i s i s a s c e n a r i o i n w h i c h a n i n c r e a s e i n t he e n e r g y

c o n s e r v a t i o n s t a n d a r d i n d u c e s e n d

­ u s e r s t o r e t r o f i t b o t h l a m p s a nd b a l l a s t s ( w h e r e a s , i n t he

b a s e c a s e , t h e y w o u l d o t h e r w i s e h a v e i n s t a l l e d o n l y a

l a m p )

. T h i s l a m p p u r c h a s i n g e v e nt

o n l y a

p p l i e s t o u s e r s w i t h T 1 2 l a m p s b e c a u s e , u n l i k e T 8 l a m p s , t h e r e a r e c e r t a i n s t a n d a r d

l e v e l s t h a t a T 1 2 l a m p c a n n o t m e e t

. T h i s e v e n t c o n t e m p l a t e s a s c e n a r i o w h e r e u s e r s , u n d e r

8

­ 28a n e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n s t a n d a r d , c a n n o l o n g e r p u r c h a s e a T 1 2 r e p l a c e m e n t l a m p f o r

t h e i r

T 12 b a l l a s t

. F o r t h i s s c e n a r i o , D O E a s s u m e s a u n i f o r

m a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f T 1 2 l a m p s

t h r o u g h o u t t h e n a t i o n

. B a s e d o n t h i s a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n , t h e a v e r a g e T 1 2 l a m p i s h a l f w a y

t h r o u g h i t s l i f e t i m e

. T h e r e f o r e , c o n s u m e r s i n t he b a s e c a s e p u r c h a s e a l a m p a f t e r t he a v e r a g e

T 1 2 l a m p h a s d i e d ( i .e ., a f t e r i t h a s l i v e d t h r o u g h t h e s e c o n d h a l f o f i t s l i f e t i m e )

. C o n s u m e r s

i n t h e s t a n d a r d s c a s e m a y c h o o s e t o c h a n g e t h e i r l a m p s a nd b a l l a s t s e a r l y , i n s t e a d o f w a i t i n g

f o r

t h e i r T 1 2 l a m p s t o f a i l . T h e r e f o r e

, i n t h e s t a n d a r d s c a s e , a l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t p u r c h a s e

w o u l d o c c u r a t t he b e g i n n i n g o f t he a n a l y s i s

, b e f o r e t h e a v e r a g e l a m p b e i n g r e p l a c e d h a s

f a i l e d

.

• B a l l a s t f a i l u r e : T h i s i s a s c e n a r i o i n w h i c h t h e i n s t a l l e d h a s f a i l e d

. D O E r e c o g n i z e s t h a t

e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n s t a n d a r d s s e t b y t h e 2 0 00 B a l l a s t R u l e a n d t h e E n e r g y P o l i c y A c t of

2 0 0 5 ( E P A C T 2 0 0 5 ) , P u b

. L . 1 0 9

­ 5 8

, a r e e f f e c t i v e i n 2 0 1 0 a n d m a y a f f e c t t h e t y p e s o f

s y s t e m s a v a i l a b l e t o t h e c o n s u m e r t o p u r c h a s e

. T h e s e s t a n d a r ds b a n t h e s a l e o f m a g n e t i c 4

­

f o o t m e d i um b i p i n a n d 8

­ f o o t s i n g l e p i n s l i m l i ne b a l l a s t s

. I n a d d i t i o n , D O E e x p e c t s t h a t

s a l e s o f m a g n e t i c b a l l a s t s t h a t o p e r a t e 8

­ f o o t r e c e s s e d d o u b l e c o n t a c t H O l a m p s w i l l b e

m i n i m a l a f t e r 2 0 1 2

. T h e r e f o r e , i n t he b a s e l i n e , u s e r s w h o h a d a m a g n e t i c o r e l e c t r o n i c T 12

b a l l a s t w o u l d b e e x p e c t e d t o r e p l a c e i t w i t h a n e l e c t r o n i c T 12 b a l l a s t a nd c o r r e s p o n d i n g

s t a n d a r d s

­ c o m p l i a n t l a m p ( i f a v a i l a b l e )

. U s e r s w h o h a d a

T 8 b a l l a s t f a i l w o u l d b e e x p e c t e d

t o r e p l a c e i t w i t h a T 8 b a l l a s t a n d c o r r e s p o n d i n g s t a n d a r d s

­ c o m p l i a n t l a m p

. H o w e v e r , i n t he

s t a n d a r d s c a s e , e n d

­ u s e r s w o u l d s e l e c t a s t a n d a r d s

­ c o m p l i a n t l a m p

­ b a l l a s t c o m b i n a t i o n s u c h

t h a t t he s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t n e v e r d r o p s b e l o w 10 p e r c e n t o f t he b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

.

• B a l l a s t r e t r o f i t : D O E a p p l i e s t h i s e v e n t o n l y t o T 1 2 u s e r s b e c a u s e t h e m a j o r i t y of b a l l a s t s

t h a t a r e c u r r e n t l y b e i n g r e t r o f i t t e d a r e T 1 2 l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m s , a c c o r d i n g t o i n d u s t r y

e x p e r t s . A b s e n t s t a n d a r d s , e n d

­ u s e r s m a y d e c i d e t o r e t r o f i t t h e i r o l d b a l l a s t s a n d l a m p s t o

s a v e e n e r g y

. W i t h s t a n d a r d s , e n d

­ u s e r s w i l l a l s o r e t r o f i t t h e i r o l d l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m s

, b u t w i t h s t a n d a r d s

­ c o m p l i a n t l a m p s

. D O E a s s u m e s t h a t e n d

­ u s e r s c o n t i n u e t o u s e t he

e x i s t i n g f i x t u r e a n d r e p l a c e o n l y t he b a l l a s t

. B e c a u s e t h e s p a t i a l l a y o u t i n t he b u i l d i n g s p a c e

i s a c o n s t r a i n e d b y t h e n u m b e r o f f

i x t u r e s , l i g h t o u t p u t o f t h e r e p l a c e m e n t l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t

s y s t e m n e v e r d r o p s b e l o w 10 p e r c e n t o f t he b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

.

• N e w c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d r e n o v a t i o n : T h i s l a m p p u r c h a s i ng e v e n t e n c o m p a s s e s a l l t h e n e w

f i x t u r e i n s t a l l a t i o n s w h e r e t h e l i g h t i n g d e s i g n w i l l b e c o m p l e t e l y n e w o r c a n b e c o m p l e t e l y

c h a n g e d

. T h i s s c e n a r i o i s o n l y a

p p l i c a b l e t o t h o s e b a s e l i n e l a m p s t h a t a r e u s u a l l y u s e d i n

n e w c o n s t r u c t i o n a nd r e n o v a t i o n ( 4

­ f o o t T 8 m e d i u m b i p i n , 8

­ f o o t T 8 s i n g l e p i n s l i m l i n e , a nd

8

­ f o o t T 1 2 r e c e s s e d d o u b l e c o n t a c t H O )

. I n r e s p o n s e t o t h i s e v e n t , t h e s p a t i a l l a y o u t of

f i x t u r e s i n t he b u i l d i n g s p a c e i s n o t c o n s t r a i n e d t o a n y p r e v i o u s c o n f i g u r a t i o n

. B e c a u s e n e w

f i x t u r e s c a n b e i n s t a l l e d

, c o n s u m e r s c o u l d i n s t a l l a l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m t h a t w o u l d n ot

m a i n t a i n t h e l i g h t o u t p u t o f t he b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

. F o r i n s t a n c e , i f l i g h t o u t p u t o f t h e s t a n d a r ds

c a s e s y s t e m i s l o w e r t h a n t he b a s e c a s e s y s t e m , c o n s u m e r s c a n i n c r e a s e t he n u m b e r of

s t a n d a r d s c a s e l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m s i n s t a l l e d i n t he b u i l d i ng b y a

c e r t a i n p e r c e n t a g e t o

m a i n t a i n t h e l i g h t o u t p u t of b a s e c a s e l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s y s t e m s

.

T a b l e 8 .4 .1 a n d T a b l e 8

. 4 .2 o u t l i n e t h e e v e n t s a n d a c t i o n s t a k e n b y s t a k e h o l d e r s i n

r e s p o n s e t o t h o s e e v e n t s b o t h i n t he b a s e c a s e a nd t h e s t a n d a r d s c a s e

.

8

­ 29T a b l e 8 .4 .1 F r a m e w o r k o f E v e n t

­ T y p e S c e n a r i o s f o r T 1 2 L a m p s

E v e n t B a s e C a s e

A c t i o n S t a n d a r d s C a s e

A c t i o n

T y p e 1

. L a m p F a i l u r e ( a ) I n s t a l ls a T 1 2 l a m p

. I n s t a l l s a l o w e r

­ w a t t a g e

, h i g h e r e f f i c a c y

l a m p

, w h e r e t h e s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t n e v e r

d r o p s b e l o w 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e b a s e l i n e

s y s t e m

. ( b ) I n s t a l ls a T 1 2 l a m p

. I n s t a l l s a T 1 2 o r T 8 e l e c t r o n ic b a l l a s t a n d

l a m p

, w h e r e t h e s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t n e v e r

d r o p s b e l o w 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e b a s e l i n e

s y s t e m

. T y p e 2

. S t a n d a r d s

I n d u c e d R e t r o f it R e p l a c e l a m p h a l f w a y t h r o u g h a n a l y s is

p e r i o d

. * I n s t a l l s a n e w T 1 2 o r T 8 e l e c t r o n ic b a l l a s t

a n d l a m p

, w h e r e t h e s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t

n e v e r d r o p s b e l o w 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e

b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

. T y p e 3

. B a l l a s t

F a i l u r e I n s t a l l s a T 1 2 e l e c t r o n ic b a l l a s t a n d l a m p s

in t h e e x i s t i n g f i x t u r e

. I n s t a l l s a n e w T 1 2 o r T 8 b a l l a s t a n d l a m p s

,

w h e r e t h e s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t n e v e r d r o p s

b e l o w 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

. T y p e 4

. B a l l a s t

R e t r o f it I n s t a l l s a T 8 e l e c t r o n ic b a l l a s t a n d l a m p s i n

t h e e x i s t i n g f i x t u r e

. I n s t a l l s a n e w T 1 2 o r T 8 b a l l a s t a n d l a m p s

,

w h e r e t h e s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t n e v e r d r o p s

b e l o w 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

. T y p e 5

. N e w

C o n s t r u c t i o n a n d

R e n o v a t i o n I n s t a l l s a n e w T 1 2 s y s t e m

. I n s t a l l s a n e w T 1 2 o r T 8 s y s t e m t h a t is

w h e r e t h e s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t n e v e r d r o p s

b e l o w 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

. L i g h t o u t p u t c a n b e m a i n t a i n e d t h r o u g h

s p a c i n g

.

* N o t e : E v e n t T y p e 2 r e p r e s e n ts a s t a n d a r d s

­ i n d u c e d r e t r o f it w h e r e l a m p s a r e s u b s t i t u t e d b e f o r e t h e e n d o f t h e ir

l i f

e t i m e

. D O E a s s u m e d t h a t l a m p s l i v e d to h a lf o f t h e ir a v e r a g e l i f e t i m e w h e n s u b s t i t u t e d u n d e r t h i s s c e n a r i o

.

T a b l e 8 .4 .2 F r a m e w o r k o f E v e n t

­ T y p e S c e n a r i o s f o r T 8 L a m p s

E v e n t B a s e C a s e A c t i o n S t a n d a r d s C a s e A c t i o n

T y p e 1

. L a m p F a i l u r e I n s t a l l s a l a m p

. I n s t a l l s a l o w e r

­ w a t t a g e

, h i g h e r e f f i c a c y

l a m p

, w h e r e t h e s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t n e v e r

d r o p s b e l o w 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e b a s e l i n e

s y s t e m

.

T y p e 3

. B a l l a s t

F a i l u r e I n s t a l l s a T 8 e l e c t r o n ic b a l l a s t a n d l a m p s i n

t h e e x i s t i n g f i x t u r e

. I n s t a l l s n e w T 8 b a l l a s t a n d l a m p s

, w h e r e t h e

s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t n e v e r d r o p s b e l o w 1 0

p e r c e n t o f t h e b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

.

T y p e 5

. N e w

C o n s t r u c t i o n a n d

R e n o v a t i o n I n s t a l l s a n e w T 8 s y s t e m

. I n s t a l l s a n e w T 8 s y s t e m

, w h e r e t h e s y s t e m

l i g h t o u t p u t n e v e r d r o p s b e l o w 1 0 p e r c e n t o f

t h e b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

. L i g h t o u t p u t c a n b e

m a i n t a i n e d t h r o u g h s p a c i n g

.

8.5 L I F E

­ C Y C L E C O S T A N D P A Y B A C K P E R I O D R E S U L T S

T h i s s e c t i on p r e s e n t s L C C r e s u l t s f o r

e a c h l a m p a n d l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t d e s i g n D O E

c o n s i d e r s

. T h i s s e c t i o n u s e s t h e t e r m s “ p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s ” a nd “ n e g a t i ve L C C s a v i n g s .”

W h e n a s t a n d a r d r e s u l t s i n “ p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s

, ” t h e l i f e c y c l e c o s t o f t h e s t a n d a r d s

­ c o m p l i a nt

8

­ 30l a m p i s l e s s t h a n t h e l i f e

­ c y c l e c o s t o f t h e b a s e l i n e l a m p a n d t h e c o n s u m e r b e n e f i t s

. A c o n s u m e r

i s a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t e d w h e n a s t a n d a r d r e s u l t s i n “ n e g a t i ve L C C s a v i n g s ” ( i

. e ., w h e n t he l i f e

­ c y c l e

c o s t o f t h e s t a n d a r d s

­ c o m p l i a n t l a m p i s h i g h e r t h a n t h e l i f e

­ c y c l e c o s t o f t he b a s e l i n e l a m p )

.

A s s t a t e d e a r l i e r , D O E c o n d u c t s a s e r i e s o f L C C c a l c u l a t i o n s f or e a c h b a s e l i n e l a m p

. F or

G S F L , D O E c o n s i d e r s l a m p

­ o n l y s u b s t i t u t i o n s a s w e l l a s l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t s u b s t i t u t i o n s

. F or

I R L

, D O E c o n s i d e r s l a m p

­ o n l y s u b s t i t u t i o n s

. I n a l l c a s e s , D O E c o n s i d e r s o n l y d e s i g ns t h a t s a ve

e n e r g y a nd w h i c h m a i n t a i n l i g h t o u t p u t a b o v e a m a x i m u m 10 p e r c e n t d e c r e a s e f r o m t he b a s e l i ne

l a m p o r s y s t e m

.

A l l r e p l a c e m e n t o p t i o n s a r e d e s i g n e d a r o u n d l a m p p u r c h a s i n g e v e n t s

. F o r G S F L , D O E

i d e n t i f i e d f

i ve p o s s i b l e e v e n t s w h e r e c o n s u m e r s w o u l d p u r c h a s e a l a m p , a n d t h e r e f o r e b e

a f

f e c t e d b y a n e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n s t a n d a r d

. T h e s e e v e n t s a r e l a m p f a i l u r e , s t a n d a r d s

­ i n d u c e d

r e t r o f i t

, b a l l a s t f a i l u r e

, b a l l a s t r e t r o f i t , a n d r e n o v a t i o n / n e w c o n s t r u c t i o n

. T h e L C C s p r e a d s h e e t

c a l c u l a t e s t he L C C i m p a c t s f o r

e a c h o f t h e s e s c e n a r i o s s e p a r a t e l y

. E x a m i n i n g t h e i m p a c t s on

e a c h s c e n a r i o s e p a r a t e l y a l l o w s o n e t o v i e w t h e r e s u l t s o f m a n y s u b g r o up p o p u l a t i o n s i n t he L C C

a n a l y s i s

.

8 .5.1 R e s u l t s f o r G e n e r a l S e r v i c e F l u o r e s c e n t L a m p s

D O E i s a n a l y z i n g t h r e e r e p r e s e n t a t i ve p r o d u c t c l a s s e s f o r

G S F L : 4

­ f o o t m e d i um b i p i n

≤ 4 ,5 0 0 K , 8

­ f o o t s i n g l e p i n s l i m l i ne ≤ 4 ,5 0 0 K , a n d 8

­ f o o t r e c e s s e d d o u b l e c o n t a c t H O ≤ 4 ,5 0 0 K

. T h i s s e c t i on p r e s e n t s t he r e s u l t s f o r

e a c h o f t h e s e r e p r e s e n t a t i ve p r o d u c t c l a s s e s a n d f

or e a c h

b a s e l i n e l a m p

. T h e r e s u l t s a r e p r e s e n t e d b y l a m p p u r c h a s i n g e v e n t a nd b y w h e t h e r a c o n s u m e r

p u r c h a s e s a l a m p o r a

l a m p a nd b a l l a s t

, b o t h o f w h i c h i n f l u e n c e t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s

.

8 .5 .1.1 P r o d u c t C l a s s : F o u r

­ f o ot m e d i u m b i p i n ≤ 4 ,5 0 0K

F o r t h e 4

­ f o o t m e d i um b i p i n ≤ 4 ,5 0 0K p r o d u c t c l a s s , D O E a n a l y z e s t h r e e b a s e l i n e l a m p s :

4 0 W T 1 2 , 3 4 W T 1 2 , a n d 3 2 W T 8

. F o r e a c h b a s e l i n e l a m p , D O E a n a l y z e s m u l t i p l e l a m p

s u b s t i t u t i o n s w i t h e a c h l a m p s u b s t i t u t i o n c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o C S L e f f i c a c y r e q u i r e m e n t s o f 9 2 .4

, 8 5 .0 , 9 0 .0 , 9 2 .3 , o r 9 5 .4 l m / W

.

T a b l e 8 .5.1 p r e s e n t s t h e f i n d i n g s o f t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s o n t he f i r s t 4

­ f o o t m e d i um

b i p i n b a s e l i n e G S F L

. T h i s t a b l e p r e s e n t s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r

t h e 4 0 W T 12 b a s e l i ne

l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

. K e y i n p u t s c o n s i s t o f u s i ng A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e

e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 5.5 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p a nd b a l l a s t p r i c e s

.

T h e r e s u l t s f o r

E v e n t T y p e 1 ( l a m p f a i l u r e ) s h ow t h a t t he L C C o f t he b a s e l i n e 4 0 W T 12

o n a m a g n e t i c b a l l a s t i s h i g h e r t h a n t he L C C o f t h e 3 4 W T 1 2 o n a m a g n e t i c b a l l a s t t h a t m e e t s

C S L 3

. A n y C S L b e y o n d C S L 3 f o r

t h i s b a s e l i n e w o u l d r e q u i r e a l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t r e p l a c e m e n t

. A s d i s c u s s e d i n t h e e n g i n e e r i n g a n a l y s i s ( C h a p t e r 5 ) , a l t h o u g h a 3 4 W T 1 2 l a m p i s o f t e n

c o n s i d e r e d a r e d u c e d w a t t a g e r e p l a c e m e n t o f t h e 4 0 W T 1 2 l a m p , t h e r e w e r e n o l a m p o p t i o n s t h a t

e m i t t e d e n o u g h l u m e n s t o f a l l w i t h i n 10 p e r c e n t o f t he b a s e l i n e s y s t e m l u m e n s

. T h e h i g h e s t

e f

f i c a c y 3 4 W T 1 2 l a m p r e p l a c e m e n t i s s h o w n b e l o w

. T h e s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t o f t h i s l a m p

­ a n d

8

­ 31b a l l a s t d e s i g n i s 1 0.3 p e r c e n t l e s s t h a n t h a t o f t he b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

. T h e s a m e d r o p i n l u m e n

o u t p u t i s a l s o e x h i b i t e d b y t h e 3 4 W T 1 2 l a m p o n a n e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t o f t h e s a m e B F

.

T h e r e s u l t s f o r

E v e n t T y p e 2 s h o w t h a t c o n s u m e r s t h a t r e p l a c e a f

u n c t i o n i n g 4 0 W T 12

l a m p o n a m a g n e t i c b a l l a s t w i t h a h i g h e f f i c a c y T 8 l a m p o n a n e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t b e n e f i t f r om

l o w e r L C C s a t a l l C S L s a b o v e C S L 2

. E v e n t T y p e 3 r e p r e s e n t s c o n s u m e r s w h o a r e a l r e a d y f

a c e d

w i t h r e p l a c i n g b o t h a l a m p a n d a b a l l a s t

. T he b a s e l i ne b a l l a s t f o r

t h i s e v e nt i s a s s u m e d t o b e a n

e l e c t r o n i c T 1 2 , s i n c e t he b a l l a s t s t a n d a r d s f r o m t h e 2 0 0 0 B a l l a s t R u l e a n d E P A C T 2 0 0 5 w o u l d

b e e f f

e c t i v e i n 2 0 1 0

. C o n s u m e r s p r o m p t e d b y t h i s e v e n t w o u l d e x p e r i e n c e p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s

i f

t h e y p u r c h a s e a h i g h e f f i c a c y 4

­ f o o t T 8 l a m p o n a n e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t a t a l l C S L s

.

8

­ 32Table8.5.1LCCandPBPResultsforaThree­Lamp4­Foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventTypeResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%1:LampFailureBaselineBaseline80.040WT12&0.95BFMag3171.93N/A13.78N/AN/A0.0LampRepl.4CSL391.234WT12&0.88BFMag154.4517.4824.945.712.0­10.3Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL182.540WT12&0.88BFElec181.63­9.7071.605.8010.0­3.5CSL285.040WT12&0.87BFElec182.53­10.6076.245.9810.4­2.7CSL286.232.5WT8&1.18BFElec182.07­10.1364.203.9512.88.7CSL390.040WT12&0.87BFElec182.80­10.8676.545.9810.53.3CSL391.234WT12&0.88BFElec163.678.2776.1510.156.1­10.3CSL390.832.5WT8&1BFElec165.356.5867.308.346.4­1.0CSL492.332.5WT8&0.88BFElec146.4025.5360.0511.274.1­8.3CSL495.030WT8&1BFElec159.5212.4268.5810.545.2­2.0CSL595.432.5WT8&0.88BFElec147.7824.1561.6111.274.2­6.2CSL597.328WT8&1BFElec146.9225.0167.9813.184.1­6.4CSL596.025WT8&1.18BFElec161.6110.3272.349.776.0­1.72:StandardsInducedRetrofitBaselineBaseline80.040WT12&0.95BFMag165.57N/A13.78N/AN/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL182.540WT12&0.88BFElec181.63­16.0771.605.8010.0­3.5CSL285.040WT12&0.87BFElec182.53­16.9776.245.9810.4­2.7CSL286.232.5WT8&1.18BFElec182.07­16.5064.203.9512.88.7CSL390.040WT12&0.87BFElec182.80­17.2376.545.9810.53.3CSL391.234WT12&0.88BFElec163.671.9076.1510.156.1­10.3CSL390.832.5WT8&1BFElec165.350.2167.308.346.4­1.0CSL492.332.5WT8&0.88BFElec146.4019.1760.0511.274.1­8.3CSL495.030WT8&1BFElec159.526.0568.5810.545.2­2.0CSL595.432.5WT8&0.88BFElec147.7817.7961.6111.274.2­6.2CSL597.328WT8&1BFElec146.9218.6567.9813.184.1­6.4CSL596.025WT8&1.18BFElec161.613.9672.349.776.0­1.73ThroughouttheGSFLresultstables,descriptionssuchas“40WT12&0.95BFMag”areused.Thefirstterm(e.g.,40W)istheratedwattage,thesecondisthelampdiameter(e.g.,T12),thethirdistheballastfactoroftheballast(e.g.,0.95BF),andthefourthistheballasttype(e.g.,“Mag”forMagneticor“Elec”forElectronic).4Throughoutthefollowingtables,Replacementisreferredtoas“Repl.”,andNewConstructionandRenovationisreferredtoas“NewConst.”and“Renov.”,respectively8­33Table8.5.1LCCandPBPResultsforaThree­Lamp4­Foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSector(continued)EventTypeResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%3:BallastFailureBaselineBaseline80.040WT12&0.88BFElec175.02N/A64.99N/AN/A­7.4*Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL182.540WT12&0.87BFElec180.80­5.7871.600.1835.9­4.6CSL285.040WT12&0.87BFElec182.53­7.5276.240.1861.0­2.7CSL390.040WT12&0.87BFElec182.80­7.7876.540.1862.63.3CSL391.234WT12&0.88BFElec163.6711.3576.154.352.6­10.3CSL390.832.5WT8&1BFElec165.359.6767.302.540.9­1.0CSL492.332.5WT8&0.88BFElec146.4028.6260.055.470­8.3CSL495.030WT8&1BFElec159.5215.5068.584.740.8­2.0CSL595.432.5WT8&0.88BFElec147.7827.2461.615.470­6.2CSL597.328WT8&1BFElec146.9228.1067.987.380.4­6.4CSL596.025WT8&1.18BFElec161.6113.4172.343.971.9­1.74:BallastRetrofitBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&1.18BFElec182.07N/A64.20N/AN/A8.7Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL390.040WT12&0.87BFElec182.80­0.7376.542.046.13.3CSL391.234WT12&0.88BFElec163.6718.4076.156.201.9­10.3CSL390.832.5WT8&1BFElec165.3516.7167.304.390.7­1.0CSL492.332.5WT8&0.88BFElec146.4035.6760.057.320­8.3CSL495.030WT8&1BFElec159.5222.5568.586.590.7­2.0CSL595.432.5WT8&0.88BFElec147.7834.2861.617.320­6.2CSL597.328WT8&1BFElec146.9235.1567.989.230.4­6.4CSL596.025WT8&1.18BFElec161.6120.4672.345.821.4­1.7*Comparativelumensaresometimesnon­zeroforbaselineT12electronicsystemsunderEventType3and4(ballastfailureandretrofit)becausethelumenpackageiscomparedtoasystemwithaT12magneticballast.DOEchosetocomparethesesystemsfortheseeventsbecauseitrecognizesthatthoughfederalregulationswillprohibittheuseofmagneticballasts,futurepurchasersmaystillseekthecurrentlumenpackagedeliveredbycurrentT12magneticsystems.8­34T a b l e 8 .5.2 p r e s e n t s t h e f i n d i n g s o f t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s on a s e c o nd b a s e l i n e 4

­

f o o t m e d i um b i p i n G S F L

. T h i s t a b l e p r e s e n t s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f or t h e 3 4 W T 12

b a s e l i n e l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

. K e y i n p u t s c o n s i s t o f u s i ng A E O 2 0 0 7

r e f e r e n c e c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 5.5 y e a r s

, a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p a nd

b a l l a s t p r i c e s

. N o t e t h a t l a m p r e p l a c e m e n t f or E v e n t T y p e 1 i s n o t s h o w n b e c a u s e t h e r e a r e no

e n e r g y

­ s a v i n g l a m p r e p l a c e m e n t o p t i o n s f o r

a

3 4 W T 1 2 l a m p

.

R e s u l t s f o r

E v e n t T y p e 2 s h o w t h a t c o n s u m e r s t h a t r e p l a c e t h e i r m a g n e t i c T 1 2 s y s t e m s

w i t h e l e c t r o n i c T 8 s y s t e m s w i l l h a ve p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s a t a l l C S L s a b o v e C S L 2

. R e s u l t s f or

E v e n t T y p e 3 s h o w t h a t c o n s u m e r s t h a t p u r c h a s e a e l e c t r o n i c T 8 s y s t e m s i n s t e a d o f e l e c t r o n i c

T 1 2 s y s t e m s e x p e r i e n c e p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s a t C S L s u p t o a n d i n c l u d i n g C S L 5.

8

­ 35Table8.5.2LCCandPBPResultsforaThree­Lamp4­Foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventTypeResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%1:LampFailureBaselineBaseline77.934WT12&0.88BFMag143.44N/A11.04N/AN/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL182.434WT12&0.88BFElec156.35­12.9165.934.4412.47.0CSL285.334WT12&0.86BFElec161.71­18.2672.964.8112.910.9CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec144.65­1.2156.525.568.29.6CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec136.746.7059.628.006.14.4CSL391.234WT12&0.86BFElec162.00­18.5676.154.8113.518.5CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec132.0911.3660.058.735.65.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec133.3410.1160.909.675.23.3CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec133.479.9861.618.735.88.0CSL597.328WT8&0.78BFElec121.3822.0660.3012.164.1­1.3CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec125.1318.3264.6611.184.8­0.92:Standards­InducedRetrofitBaselineBaseline77.934WT12&0.88BFMag138.35N/A11.04N/AN/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL182.434WT12&0.88BFElec156.35­18.0065.934.4412.47.0CSL285.334WT12&0.86BFElec161.71­23.3672.964.8112.910.9CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec144.65­6.3156.525.568.29.6CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec136.741.6059.628.006.14.4CSL391.234WT12&0.86BFElec162.00­23.6676.154.8113.518.5CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec132.096.2660.058.735.65.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec133.345.0160.909.675.23.3CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec133.474.8861.618.735.88.0CSL597.328WT8&0.78BFElec121.3816.9660.3012.164.1­1.3CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec125.1313.2264.6611.184.8­0.93:BallastFailureBaselineBaseline77.934WT12&0.88BFElec152.66N/A62.25N/AN/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL182.434WT12&0.86BFElec154.69­2.0265.930.3710.04.5CSL285.334WT12&0.86BFElec161.71­9.0572.960.3729.010.9CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec144.658.0156.521.120.09.6CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec136.7415.9259.623.560.04.4CSL391.234WT12&0.86BFElec162.00­9.3476.150.3737.718.5CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec132.0920.5860.054.290.05.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec133.3419.3360.905.22.0.03.3CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec133.4719.1961.614.290.08.0CSL597.328WT8&0.78BFElec121.3831.2860.307.720.0­1.3CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec125.1327.5364.666.740.4­0.98­36Table8.5.2LCCandPBPResultsforaThree­Lamp4­Foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSector(continued)EventTypeResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%4:BallastRetrofitBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec144.65N/A56.52N/AN/A9.6Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL391.234WT12&0.86BFElec162.00­9.3476.150.3737.718.5CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec136.7415.9259.623.5604.4CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec132.0920.5860.054.2905.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec133.3419.3360.905.2203.3CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec133.4719.1961.614.2908.0CSL597.328WT8&0.78BFElec121.3831.2860.307.720­1.3CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec125.1327.5364.666.740.4­0.98­37T a b l e 8 .5.3 p r e s e n t s t h e f i n d i n g s o f a n L C C a nd P B P a n a l y s e s on a t h i r d b a s e l i n e 4

­ f o ot

m e d i um b i p i n G S F L

. T h i s t a b l e p r e s e n t s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r

t h e 3 2 W T 8 b a s e l i n e l a m p

o p e r a t i n g i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

. K e y i n p u t s c o n s i s t o f u s i ng A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e

e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 5.5 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p a nd b a l l a s t p r i c e s

.

E v e n t T y p e 1 ( l a m p f a i l u r e ) d i s p l a y s r e s u l t s f o r

c o n s u m e r s w h o m u s t r e p l a c e a b a s e l i ne

l a m p w i t h a h i g h e r e f f i c a c y l a m p

. F o r t h i s e v e n t , i n s t a l l i n g r e d u c e d w a t t a g e l a m p s i s t h e o n l y

o p p o r t u n i t y f

or e n e r g y s a v i n g s

. F o r t h e s e d e s i g n o p t i o n s

, p o s i t i v e L C C s a v i n g s a r e p o s s i b l e a t

C S L s u p t o a n d i n c l u d i n g C S L 5

. T h e l o w e s t L C C m e e t s C S L 5 , a s s u m i n g a 2 5 W l a m p i s u s e d

w i t h a 9.5 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n m e a n l u m e n s f r om t he b a s e l i n e

. A l l o p t i o n s f o r

e v e n t t y p e s 2 a nd

5 ( b a l l a s t f a i l u r e a n d n e w c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d r e n o v a t i o n ) h a ve p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s

. T h e l o w e s t

L C C m e e t C S L 5

, a s s u m i n g a 2 5 W l a m p i s u s e d.

8

­ 38Table8.5.3LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot32WT8MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventTypeResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%1:LampfailureBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec119.09N/A11.79N/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL495.030WT8&0.88BFElec117.681.4116.161.912.36.3CSL597.328WT8&0.88BFElec105.4313.6515.564.460.82.6CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec99.5619.5219.935.621.4­9.53:BallastFailureBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec144.65N/A56.52N/AN/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec136.747.9159.622.441.3­4.7CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec132.0912.5660.053.171.1­3.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec133.3411.3160.904.101.1­5.7CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec133.4711.1861.613.171.6­1.4CSL597.328WT8&0.88BFElec131.0013.6560.304.460.81.6CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec125.1319.5264.665.621.4­9.55:NewConst.andRenovBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec144.65N/A56.52N/AN/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec136.747.9159.622.441.3­4.7CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec132.0912.5660.053.171.1­3.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec133.3411.3160.904.101.1­5.7CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec133.4711.1861.613.171.6­1.4CSL597.328WT8&0.88BFElec131.0013.6560.304.460.81.6CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec125.1319.5264.665.621.4­9.58­39T a b l e 8 .5 .4 t o T a b l e 8 .5

. 6 s u m m a r i z e t h e r a n g e of L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r t h e 4

­ f o ot

m e d i um b i p i n p r o d u c t c l a s s

. O n l y t h e m o s t r e l e v a n t e v e n t s u n d e r e a c h b a s e l i n e l a m p a r e s h o w n

. I n g e n e r a l , o n e f i n d s t h a t a C S L a t or a b o v e C S L 4 w o u l d i n d u c e t h e r e p l a c e m e n t o f T 12

m a g n e t i c b a l l a s t s w i t h e l e c t r o n i c T 8 b a l l a s t s , a s n o 4 0 W o r 3 4 W T 1 2 l a m p s c a n m e e t t h e s e

C S L s

. F or a l l b a s e l i n e l a m p s , a n d f

o r

a l l b a l l a s t r e p l a c e m e n t e v e n t s , t h e r e a r e d e s i g n o p t i o ns

w i t h p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s a t C S L s a b o v e C S L 1

. F o r t h e T 8 b a s e l i n e l a m p

, p o s i t i ve L C C

s a v i n g s a r e p o s s i b l e a t C S L s a b o v e C S L 2

.

8

­ 40Table8.5.4SummaryoftheLCCandPBPResultsforaThree­Lamp4­Foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WLCCSavings$PaybackPeriodyrEvent1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event2:Standards­InducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event2:StandardsInducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)CSL182.5N/A­16.07­5.78N/A10.035.9CSL285.0to86.2N/A­16.97to­16.50­7.52N/A10.4to12.861.0CSL390.0to91.217.48­17.23to1.90­7.78to11.352.06.1to10.50.9to62.6CSL492.3to95.0N/A6.05to19.1715.50to28.62N/A4.1to5.20to0.8CSL595.4to97.3N/A3.96to18.6513.41to28.10N/A4.1to6.00to1.9Table8.5.5SummaryoftheLCCandPBPResultsforaThree­Lamp4­Foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WLCCSavings$PaybackPeriodyrEvent2:Standards­InducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event2:StandardsInducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)CSL182.4­18.00­2.0212.410.0CSL285.3to86.2­23.36to­6.31­9.05to8.018.2to12.90to29.0CSL390.8to91.2­23.66to1.60­9.34to15.926.1to13.50to37.7CSL492.3to95.05.01to6.2619.33to20.585.2to5.60CSL595.4to97.34.88to16.9619.19to31.284.1to5.80to0.48­41Table8.5.6SummaryoftheLCCandPBPResultsforaThree­Lamp4­Foot32WT8MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WLCCSavings$PaybackPeriodyrEvent1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event3:BallastFailureandEvent5:NewConstructionandRenovation(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event3:BallastFailureandEvent5:NewConstructionandRenovation(Lamp&BallastReplacement)CSL1N/AN/AN/AN/AN/ACSL2N/AN/AN/AN/AN/ACSL390.8N/A7.91N/A1.3CSL492.3to95.01.4111.31to12.562.31.1CSL595.4to97.313.65to19.5211.18to19.520.8to1.40.8to1.68­428 .5 .1.2 P r o d u c t C l a s s : 8

­ F o o t s i n g l e p i n s l i m l i n e ≤ 4 ,5 0 0K

F o r t h e 8

­ f o o t s i n g l e p i n s l i m l i ne ≤ 4 ,5 0 0K p r o d u c t c l a s s , D O E i s a n a l y z i n g t h r e e b a s e l i ne

l a m p s : 7 5 W T 1 2 , 6 0W T 1 2 , a n d 5 9 W T 8

. F o r e a c h b a s e l i n e l a m p , D O E a n a l y z e s m u l t i p l e l a m p

s u b s t i t u t i o n s w i t h e a c h l a m p s u b s t i t u t i o n c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a C S L e f f i c a c y r e q u i r e m e n t o f 8 7 .3

, 9 2 .0 , 9 4 .8 , 9 8 .2 , a n d 1 0 1 .5 l m / W

.

T a b l e 8 .5.7 p r e s e n t s t h e f i n d i n g s o f t he L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s o n t he f i r s t b a s e l i n e 8

­ f o ot

s i n g l e p i n s l i m l i n e G S F L

. T h i s t a b l e p r e s e n t s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f or t he 7 5 W T 12

b a s e l i n e l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

. K e y i n p u t s c o n s i s t o f u s i ng A E O 2 0 0 7

r e f e r e n c e c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 4 y e a r s

, a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p a nd

b a l l a s t p r i c e s

.

T h e r e s u l t s f o r

E v e n t 1 s h o w t h a t t he L C C o f t he b a s e l i n e 7 5 W T 1 2 o n a m a g n e t i c b a l l a s t

i s h i g h e r t h a n t h e L C C o f t h e 6 0 W T 1 2 o n a m a g n e t i c b a l l a s t t h a t m e e t s C S L 3

. A n y C S L a b o v e

C S L 3 f o r

t h i s b a s e l i n e w o u l d r e q u i r e a l a m p

­ a n d

­ b a l l a s t r e p l a c e m e n t

. A s d i s c u s s e d i n t he

e n g i n e e r i n g a n a l y s i s ( C h a p t e r 5 )

, a l t h o u g h a 6 0 W T 1 2 l a m p i s o f t e n c o n s i d e r e d a r e d u c e d

w a t t a g e r e p l a c e m e n t o f t h e 7 5 W T 1 2 l a m p , t h e r e a r e n o l a m p o p t i o n s w i t h a C C T o f 4 ,1 0 0 K t h a t

e m i t e n o u g h l u m e n s t o f a l l w i t h i n 10 p e r c e n t o f t h e b a s e l i n e s y s t e m l u m e n s

. S h o w n b e l o w i s t he

h i g h e s t e f f i c a c y 4 ,1 0 0 K

, 6 0 W T 1 2 l a m p r e p l a c e m e n t

. T h e s y s t e m l i g h t o u t p u t o f t h i s l a m p

­ a n d

b a l l a s t d e s i g n i s 13 p e r c e n t l e s s t h a n t h a t o f t he b a s e l i n e s y s t e m

.

T h e r e s u l t s f o r

E v e n t 2 s h o w t h a t c o n s u m e r s w ho r e p l a c e a f

u n c t i o n i n g 7 5 W T 1 2 l a m p

o n a m a g n e t i c b a l l a s t w i t h a h i g h e f f i c a c y T 8 l a m p o n a n e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t b e n e f i t f r o m l o w e r

L C C s a t C S L 5

. A l l C S L s g r e a t e r t h a n C S L 3 c a n o n l y b e m e t b y r e p l a c i n g t he b a s e l i ne b a l l a s t

. E v e n t 3 r e p r e s e n t s c o n s u m e r s w h o a r e a l r e a d y f

a c e d w i t h r e p l a c i n g b o t h a l a m p a n d a b a l l a s t

. T he b a s e l i ne b a l l a s t f o r

t h i s e v e n t i s a s s u m e d t o b e a n e l e c t r o n i c T 1 2 , s i n c e t he b a l l a s t s t a n d a r ds

f r o m t h e 2 0 0 0 B a l l a s t R u l e a n d E P A C T 2 0 0 5 w o u l d b e e f f

e c t i v e i n 2 0 1 0 . C o n s u m e r s p r o m p t e d

b y t h i s e v e n t e x p e r i e n c e p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s i f t h e y p u r c h a s e a h i g h e f f i c a c y T 8 l a m p o n a n

e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t a t C S L 5.

8

­ 43Table8.5.7LCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­Foot75WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%Event1:LampFailureBaselineBaseline85.675WT12&0.94BFMag166.98N/A16.03N/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL397.560.5WT12&0.88BFMag136.5430.4419.308.690.4­13.1Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL187.375WT12&0.85BFElec181.75­14.7793.897.0611.0­5.7CSL292.075WT12&0.85BFElec178.15­11.1795.797.0611.3­2.5CSL394.860.1WT8&1.18BFElec193.71­26.73108.442.1942.19.0CSL5101.560.1WT8&0.88BFElec152.7814.2091.3912.286.1­8.1Event2:StandardsInducedRetrofitBaselineBaseline85.675WT12&0.94BFMag158.96N/A16.03N/AN/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL187.375WT12&0.85BFElec181.75­22.7993.897.0611.0­5.7CSL292.075WT12&0.85BFElec178.15­19.1995.797.0611.3­2.5CSL394.860.1WT8&1.18BFElec193.71­34.75108.442.1942.19.0CSL5101.560.1WT8&0.88BFElec152.786.1891.3912.286.1­8.1Event:BallastFailureBaselineBaseline85.675WT12&0.88BFElec176.61N/A87.52N/AN/A­6.4Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL187.375WT12&0.85BFElec181.75­5.1493.890.827.8­5.7CSL292.075WT12&0.85BFElec178.15­1.5495.790.8210.1­2.5CSL5101.560.1WT8&0.88BFElec152.7823.8391.396.030.6­8.1Event4:BallastRetrofitBaselineBaseline/CSL394.860.1WT8&1.18BFElec193.710.00108.440.00N/A9.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL5101.560.1WT8&0.88BFElec152.7840.9391.3910.080­8.18­44T a b l e 8 .5.8 p r e s e n t s t h e f i n d i n g s of L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s o n a s e c o nd b a s e l i n e 8

­ f o ot

s i n g l e p i n s l i m l i n e G S F L

. T h i s t a b l e p r e s e n t s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f or t h e 6 0 W T 12

b a s e l i n e l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

. K e y i n p u t s c o n s i s t o f u s i ng A E O 2 0 0 7

r e f e r e n c e c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 4 y e a r s

, a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p a nd

b a l l a s t p r i c e s

. N o t e t h a t a l a m p r e p l a c e m e n t i n E v e n t 1 i s n o t s h o w n b e c a u s e t h e r e a r e no

e n e r g y

­ s a v i n g l a m p r e p l a c e m e n t o p t i o n s f o r

a

6 0 W T 1 2 l a m p

.

E v e n t 2 r e p r e s e n t s c o n s u m e r s w h o r e s p o n d t o h i g h e r l a m p s t a n d a r ds b y r e p l a c i ng a

f u n c t i o n i n g 6 0 W T 1 2 s y s t e m w i t h a n e w l a m p a nd b a l l a s t

. F o r t h i s e v e n t , c o n s u m e r s e x p e r i e n c e

n e g a t i ve L C C s a v i n g s a t a l l C S L s

. E v e n t 3 r e p r e s e n t s c o n s u m e r s w h o a r e a l r e a d y f a c e d w i t h

r e p l a c i n g b o t h a l a m p a n d a b a l l a s t

. T he b a s e l i ne b a l l a s t f o r

t h i s e v e n t i s a s s u m e d t o b e a n

e l e c t r o n i c T 1 2 , s i n c e t he b a l l a s t s t a n d a r d s f r o m t h e 2 0 0 0 B a l l a s t R u l e a n d E P A C T 2 0 0 5 w o u l d

b e e f f

e c t i v e i n 2 0 1 0

. C o n s u m e r s p r o m p t e d b y t h i s e v e n t e x p e r i e n c e p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s i f t h e y

p u r c h a s e a h i g h e f f i c a c y T 8 l a m p o n a n e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t s i n c e t h e c o s t o f t he b a l l a s t i s r e d u c e d

b y t he c o s t o f t he b a s e l i n e b a l l a s t

.

8

­ 45Table8.5.8LCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­Foot60WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSector M e a n L u m e n s f r o m B a s e l i n e %0.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.53.23.610.110.03.23.610.1

P a y b a c k P e r i o d y rN/A14.815.420.711.312.411.6N/A14.815.420.711.312.411.6N/A5.79.92.73.63.4N/A1.31.71.8

O p e r a t i n g C o s t S a v i n g s O n e Y e a r $N/A5.165.163.586.946.386.94N/A5.165.163.586.946.386.94N/A0.820.822.602.042.60N/A3.362.803.36

I n s t a l l e d P r i c e $11.2087.3790.7985.3089.6890.0691.3911.2087.3790.7985.3089.6890.0691.3982.6987.3790.7989.6890.0691.3985.3089.6890.0691.39

L C C S a v i n g s $N/A­19.18­18.71­17.95­10.81­8.12­10.08N/A­24.78­24.31­23.55­16.42­13.73­15.68N/A­3.04­2.565.338.026.06N/A7.139.827.87

L C C $131.19150.37149.89149.13142.00139.31141.27125.58150.37149.89149.13142.00139.31141.27147.33150.37149.89142.00139.31141.27149.13142.00139.31141.27

D e s i g n O p t i o n60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec

R a t e d L a m p E f f i c a c y l m / W87.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.598.2101.8101.594.898.2101.8101.5

C a n d i d a t e S t a n d a r d L e v e lBaseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5

R e s p o n s eBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

E v e n tEvent1:LampFailureEvent2:StandardsInducedRetrofitEvent3:BallastFailureEvent4:BallastRetrofit8­46T a b l e 8 .5.9 p r e s e n t s t h e f i n d i n g s of L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s o n 8

­ f o o t s i n g l e p i n s l i m l i ne

G S F L

. T h i s t a b l e p r e s e n t s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r

t h e 5 9 W T 8 b a s e l i n e l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n

t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

. K e y i n p u t s c o n s i s t o f u s i ng A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s

, a n

a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 4 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p a nd b a l l a s t p r i c e s

.

T h e r e s u l t s f o r

E v e n t 1 s h o w t h a t t he L C C o f t he b a s e l i n e 5 9 W T 8 o n a n e l e c t r o n i c

b a l l a s t i s h i g h e r t h a n t h e L C C o f t h e 5 7 W o r 5 5 W T 8 o n a n e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t t h a t m e e t s C S L 5

. E v e n t 3 r e p r e s e n t s c o n s u m e r s w h o m u s t r e p l a c e b o t h a l a m p a n d a b a l l a s t

. C o n s u m e r s p r o m p t e d

b y t h i s e v e n t w i l l e x p e r i e n c e p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s i f t h e y p u r c h a s e a T 8 l a m p t h a t m e e t s C S L 5.

T a b l e 8 .5 .1 0 t o T a b l e 8 .5 .1 2 s u m m a r i z e t h e r a n g e o f r e s u l t s f o r

t h e 8

­ f o o t s i n g l e p i n

s l i m l i ne p r o d u c t c l a s s

. O n l y t h e m o s t r e l e v a n t e v e n t s u n d e r e a c h b a s e l i n e l a m p a r e s h o w n

. I n

g e n e r a l , o n e f i n d s t h a t a C S L a t o r a

b o v e C S L 4 w o u l d i n d u c e t h e r e p l a c e m e n t o f T 1 2 m a g n e t i c

b a l l a s t s w i t h e l e c t r o n i c T 8 b a l l a s t s , a s t h e r e a r e n o 6 0 W o r 7 5 W T 1 2 l a m p s t h a t m e e t t h e s e

C S L s

. F o r T 12 b a s e l i ne l a m p s , t h e r e a r e d e s i g n o p t i o n s w i th p o s i t i v e L C C s a v i n g s a t C S L s

a

b o v e C S L 3 f o r

c e r t a i n l a m p p u r c h a s i n g e v e n t s

. F o r t h e T 8 b a s e l i n e l a m p

, p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s

a r e p o s s i b l e a t C S L s u p t o a n d i n c l u d i n g C S L 5

.

8

­ 47Table8.5.9LCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­Foot59WT8SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventTypeResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%Event1:LampFailureBaselineBaseline/CSL394.860.1WT8&0.88BFElec117.58N/A12.61N/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL5101.857WT8&0.88BFElec112.415.1717.371.443.36.2CSL5103.655WT8&0.88BFElec109.318.2716.562.931.35.6Event3:BallastFailureBaselineBaseline/CSL394.860.1WT8&0.88BFElec149.13N/A85.30N/AN/A0.0LampandBallastRepl.CSL498.260.1WT8&0.85BFElec150.06­0.9289.681.014.32.2CSL5101.857WT8&0.85BFElec142.576.5790.061.852.62.6CSL5101.560.1WT8&0.78BFElec141.277.8791.393.361.80.1CSL5103.655WT8&0.88BFElec140.868.2789.252.931.35.6Event5:NewConst.andRenovationBaselineBaseline/CSL394.860.1WT8&0.88BFElec149.13N/A85.30N/AN/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL498.260.1WT8&0.85BFElec150.06­0.9289.681.014.32.2CSL5101.857WT8&0.85BFElec142.576.5790.061.852.62.6CSL5101.560.1WT8&0.78BFElec141.277.8791.393.361.80.1CSL5103.655WT8&0.88BFElec140.868.2789.252.931.35.68­48Table8.5.10SummaryoftheLCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­Foot75WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WLCCSavings$PaybackPeriodyrEvent1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event2:Standards­InducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event2:StandardsInducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)CSL187.3N/A­22.79­5.14N/A11.07.8CSL292.0N/A­19.19­1.54N/A11.310.1CSL394.8to97.530.44­34.75N/A0.442.1N/ACSL4N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/ACSL5101.5N/A6.1823.83N/A6.10.6Table8.5.11SummaryoftheLCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­foot60WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WLCCSavings$PaybackPeriodyrEvent2:StandardsInducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event2:StandardsInducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)CSL1587.6N/AN/AN/AN/ACSL292.6­24.78­3.0414.85.7CSL394.8to97.5­24.31to­23.55­2.5615.4to20.79.9CSL498.2­16.425.3311.32.7CSL5101.5to101.8­15.68to­13.736.06to8.0211.6to12.43.4to3.6Becausethe60WT12baselineexceedsCSL1,therearenoenergysavingdesignoptionsatthislevel.Thereare,however,energysavingdesignoptionsatCSL1forthe75WT12baseline.8­495Table8.5.12SummaryoftheLCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­Foot59WT8SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WLCCSavings$PaybackPeriodyrEvent1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event3:BallastFailureandEvent5:NewConstructionandRenovation(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event3:BallastFailureandEvent5:NewConstructionandRenovation(Lamp&BallastReplacement)CSL1N/AN/AN/AN/AN/ACSL2N/AN/AN/AN/AN/ACSL3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/ACSL498.2N/A­0.92N/A4.3CSL5101.5to103.65.17to8.276.57to8.271.3to3.31.3to2.68­508 .5 .1.3 P r o d u c t C l a s s : 8

­ f o o t r e c e s s e d d o u b l e c o n t a c t H O ≤ 4 ,5 0 0K

F o r t h e 8

­ f o o t r e c e s s e d d o u b l e c o n t a c t H O ≤ 4 ,5 0 0 K p r o d u c t c l a s s , D O E a n a l y z e d t w o

b a s e l i n e l a m p s : a 1 1 0 W T 1 2 a n d a

9 5 W T 1 2

. E a c h l a m p w a s a n a l y z e d a t f i v e C S L s w i t h

e f

f i c a c y r e q u i r e m e n t s of 8 5 .5 , 8 7 .6 , 9 1 .9 , a n d 9 5 .3 l m / W

.

T a b l e 8 .5 .13 p r e s e n t s t h e f i n d i n g s of L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s o n t h e 8

­ f o o t r e c e s s e d

d o u b l e c o n t a c t H O G S F L

. T h i s t a b l e p r e s e n t s t h e L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r

t h e 1 1 0 W T 12

b a s e l i n e l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t he i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r

. K e y i n p u t s c o n s i s t o f u s i n g A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e

c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 3.2 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p a nd b a l l a s t p r i c e s

.

N o t e t h a t f o r

E v e n t 1 , t he L C C o f t he b a s e l i n e 1 1 0 W T 1 2 o n a n e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t i s

h i g h e r t h a n t he L C C of b o t h 9 5 W T 1 2 o n a n e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t t h a t m e e t s C S L 2 a n d C S L 3

r e s p e c t i v e l y

. T h e r e s u l t s f o r

E v e n t 2 s h o w t h a t c o n s u m e r s w o u l d n ot b e n e f i t b y r e p l a c i n g a

f u n c t i o n i n g 1 1 0 W T 1 2 e l e c t r o n i c s y s t e m h a l f w a y t h r o u g h i t s l i f e t i m e w i t h a h i g h e f f i c a c y T 8

l a m p e l e c t r o n i c s y s t e m

. B e c a u s e b a s e l i n e u s e r s f a c e t h e c o s t of a n e w b a l l a s t a n d l a m p s i n t he

b a s e c a s e , E v e n t 3 c o n s u m e r s w o u l d e x p e r i e n c e p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s i f t h e y p u r c h a s e a h i g h

e f

f i c a c y T 8 s y s t e m or a 9 5 W T 1 2 l a m p r a t h e r t h a n a l o w

­ e f f i c a c y 1 1 0 W T 1 2 e l e c t r o n i c s y s t e m

. E v e n t 5 r e p r e s e n t s c o n s u m e r s w h o a r e r e n o v a t i ng a n e x i s t i n g b u i l d i n g o r c o n s t r u c t i n g a n e w

b u i l d i n g

. C o n s u m e r s i n t h i s s c e n a r i o c a n c h a n g e t h e s p a c i n g o f t h e T 8 H O s y s t e m t o a c h i e v e t he

s a m e l u m e n s a s t he b a s e l i n e T 1 2 s y s t e m

. I n t h i s s c e n a r i o , t h e l o w e s t L C C o c c u r s a t C S L 2.

8

­ 51Table8.5.13LCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­Foot110WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatingintheIndustrialSector M e a n L u m e n s f r o m B a s e l i n e %0.0­7.7­6.13.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.00.0­6.71.1

P a y b a c k P e r i o d y rN/A0.01.648.57.68.78.86.5N/A48.57.68.78.86.5N/A6.10.01.21.21.4N/A6.10.01.21.21.4N/A6.10.01.21.25.43.84.1

O p e r a t i n g C o s t S a v i n g s O n e Y e a r $0.007.997.991.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.677.3510.6110.61

I n s t a l l e d P r i c e $19.5719.8932.21111.67100.46112.78113.40122.6319.57111.67100.46112.78113.40122.63100.14111.67100.46112.78113.40122.63100.14111.67100.46112.78113.40122.63100.14111.67100.46112.78113.40119.40119.73122.63

L C C S a v i n g s $0.0015.843.52­34.22­5.27­17.59­18.222.740.00­44.05­15.11­27.43­28.05­7.100.00­7.6921.258.938.3129.260.00­7.6921.258.938.3129.260.00­7.6921.258.938.319.2912.4410.06

L C C $151.62135.78148.10185.84156.89169.21169.84148.88141.79185.84156.89169.21169.84148.88178.14185.84156.89169.21169.84148.88178.14185.84156.89169.21169.84148.88178.14185.84156.89169.21169.84168.85165.70168.09

D e s i g n O p t i o n113WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

R a t e d L a m p E f f i c a c y l m / W80.186.187.683.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.991.993.095.3

C a n d i d a t e S t a n d a r d L e v e lBaselineCSL2CSL3CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5

R e s p o n s eBaselineLampRepl.Lamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

E v e n tEvent1:LampFailureEvent2:StandardsInducedRetrofitEvent3:BallastFailureEvent4:BallastRetrofitEvent5:NewConst.andRenov.8­52T a b l e 8 .5 .14 p r e s e n t s t h e f i n d i n g s of L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s o n 8

­ f o o t r e c e s s e d d o u b l e

c o n t a c t h i g h

­ o u t p u t G S F L

. T h i s t a b l e p r e s e n t s t h e L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r

t h e 9 5 W T 12

b a s e l i n e l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t he i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r

. K e y i n p u t s c o n s i s t o f u s i n g A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e

c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 3.2 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p a nd b a l l a s t p r i c e s

. N o t e t h a t l a m p r e p l a c e m e n t s i n E v e n t 1 a r e n o t s h o w n b e c a u s e t h e r e a r e n o e n e r g y

­ s a v i n g l a m p

r e p l a c e m e n t o p t i o n s f o r

a 9 5 W T 1 2 l a m p

.

T h e r e s u l t s f o r

E v e n t 2 s h o w t h a t c o n s u m e r s w o u l d n ot b e n e f i t b y r e p l a c i n g a f u n c t i o n i ng

9 5 W T 1 2 e l e c t r o n i c s y s t e m h a l f w a y t h r o u g h i t s l i f e t i m e w i t h a h i g h e f f i c a c y T 8 l a m p e l e c t r o n i c

s y s t e m

. B e c a u s e t h e y f

a c e t h e c o s t of a n e w b a l l a s t a n d l a m p s i n t he b a s e c a s e , E v e n t 3

c o n s u m e r s w o u l d e x p e r i e n c e p o s i t i ve L C C s a v i n g s i f t h e y p u r c h a s e a h i g h e f f i c a c y T 8 s y s t e m

r a t h e r t h a n a l o w e f f i c a c y T 1 2 e l e c t r o n i c s y s t e m

. E v e n t 5 r e p r e s e n t s c o n s u m e r s w h o a r e

r e n o v a t i n g a n e x i s t i ng b u i l d i n g o r c o n s t r u c t i n g a n e w b u i l d i n g

. C o n s u m e r s i n t h i s s c e n a r i o c a n

c h a n g e t h e s p a c i n g o f t h e T 8 H O s y s t e m t o a c h i e v e t h e s a m e l u m e n s a s t he b a s e l i n e T 1 2 s y s t e m

. I n t h i s s c e n a r i o , t h e l o w e s t L C C o c c u r s a t C S L 4.

8

­ 53Table8.5.14LCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­Foot95WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatingintheIndustrialSector M e a n L u m e n s f r o m B a s e l i n e %0.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.0­0.11.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.0

P a y b a c k P e r i o d y rN/A64.837.037.213.313.410.2N/A64.837.037.213.313.410.2N/A4.66.97.13.23.22.6N/A0.3N/A4.66.97.13.23.22.6

O p e r a t i n g C o s t S a v i n g s O n e Y e a r $N/A1.342.682.687.927.9210.69N/A1.342.682.687.927.9210.69N/A1.342.682.687.927.9210.697.9210.69N/A1.342.682.687.927.9210.69

I n s t a l l e d P r i c e $13.75100.46112.78113.40119.40119.73122.6313.75100.46112.78113.40119.40119.73122.6394.32100.46112.78113.40119.40119.73122.63119.40122.6394.32100.46112.78113.40119.40119.73122.63

L C C S a v i n g s $N/A­29.96­39.57­40.20­14.28­17.21­13.62N/A­36.86­46.48­47.10­21.19­24.12­20.53N/A­3.43­13.05­13.6712.259.3212.90N/A0.65N/A­3.43­13.05­13.6712.259.3212.90

L C C $129.64159.60169.21169.84143.92146.85143.26122.73159.60169.21169.84143.92146.85143.26156.17159.60169.21169.84143.92146.85143.26143.92143.26156.17159.60169.21169.84143.92146.85143.26

D e s i g n O p t i o n97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

R a t e d L a m p E f f i c a c y l m / W82.586.187.688.991.993.095.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.391.995.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.3

C a n d i d a t e S t a n d a r d L e v e lBaselineCSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5BaselineCSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5BaselineCSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5Baseline/CSL4CSL5BaselineCSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5

R e s p o n s eBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastReplBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

E v e n tEvent1:LampFailureEvent2:StandardsInducedRetrofitEvent3:BallastFailureEvent4:BallastRetrofitEvent5:NewConst.andRenov8­54T a b l e 8 .5 .1 5 t o T a b l e 8 .5 .1 6 s u m m a r i z e t h e r a n g e o f r e s u l t s f o r

t h e 8

­ f o o t r e c e s s e d

d o u b l e c o n t a c t p r o d u c t c l a s s

. O n l y t h e m o s t r e l e v a n t e v e n t s u n d e r e a c h b a s e l i n e l a m p a r e

s h o w n

. I n g e n e r a l , o n e f i n d s t h a t a C S L a t or a b o v e C S L 3 w o u l d i n d u c e t h e r e p l a c e m e n t o f T 12

e l e c t r o n i c b a l l a s t s w i t h e l e c t r o n i c T 8 b a l l a s t s , a s n o 9 5 W o r 1 1 0 W T 1 2 l a m p s m e e t t h e s e C S L s

. T h i s m i g r a t i o n m a y r e s u l t i n n e g a t i ve L C C s a v i n g s f o r

c o n s u m e r s w ho w o u l d n o t o t h e r w i s e

r e p l a c e t h e i r T 1 2 e l e c t r o n i c s y s t e m

.

8

­ 55Table8.5.15SummaryoftheLCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­Foot110WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatingintheIndustrialSectorCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WLCCSavings$PaybackPeriodyrEvent1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event2:Standards­InducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event1:LampFailure(LampReplacement)Event2:StandardsInducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailure(Lamp&BallastReplacement)CSL183.2NA­44.05­7.69NA48.56.1CSL286.115.84­15.1121.250.07.60.0CSL387.6to88.93.52­28.05to­27.438.31to8.951.68.7to8.81.2CSL491.9to93.0NANANANANANACSL595.3NA­7.1029.26NA6.51.4Table8.5.16SummaryoftheLCCandPBPResultsforaTwo­Lamp8­Foot95WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatingintheIndustrialSectorCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WLCCSavings$PaybackPeriodyrEvent2:Standards­InducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailureandEvent5:NewConstructionandRenovation(Lamp&BallastandReplacement)Event2:StandardsInducedRetrofit(Lamp&BallastReplacement)Event3:BallastFailureandEvent5:NewConstructionandRenovation(Lamp&BallastandReplacement)CSL1NANANANANACSL286.1­36.86­3.4364.84.6CSL387.6to88.9­47.10to­46.48­13.67to­13.0537.0to37.26.9to7.1CSL491.9to93.0­24.12to­21.199.32to12.2513.3to13.43.2CSL595.3­20.5312.9010.22.68­568 .5.2 L i f e

­ C y c l e C o s t R e s u l t s f o r I n c a n d e s c e n t R e f l e c t o r L a m p s

T h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e s p r e s e n t t h e f i n d i n g s o f t h e L C C a n d P B P a n a l y s e s on s t a n d a r d

s p e c t r um I R L

. T a b l e 8 .5 .17 p r o v i d e s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r

a

9 0 W P A R 3 8 l a m p

o p e r a t i n g i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

. T h e s e r e s u l t s a r e b a s e d o n t he A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e

e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 0.9 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p p r i c e s

. N o t e t h a t t he

l o w e s t L C C o c c u r s w i t h t h e i m p r o v e d H I R l a m p d e s i g n a t C S L 3

.

T a b l e 8 .5 .18 p r o v i d e s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r a 9 0 W P A R 3 8 l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t he

r e s i d e n t i a l s e c t o r

. T h e s e r e s u l t s a r e b a s e d o n t he A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s

, a n

a n a l y s i s p e r i o d of 3.4 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p p r i c e s

. N o t e t h a t t he l o w e s t L C C o c c u r s

w i t h t h e i m p r o v e d H I R l a m p d e s i g n a t C S L 3.

T a b l e 8 .5 .19 p r o v i d e s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r a 7 5 W P A R 3 8 l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t he

c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r

. T h e s e r e s u l t s a r e b a s e d o n t he A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n

a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 0.9 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p p r i c e s

. N o t e t h a t t he l o w e s t L C C o c c u r s

w i t h t h e i m p r o v e d H I R l a m p d e s i g n a t C S L 3

.

T a b l e 8 .5 .20 p r o v i d e s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r a 7 5 W P A R 3 8 l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t he

r e s i d e n t i a l s e c t o r

. T h e s e r e s u l t s a r e b a s e d o n t he A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s

, a n

a n a l y s i s p e r i o d of 3.4 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p p r i c e s

. N o t e t h a t t he l o w e s t L C C o c c u r s

w i t h t h e i m p r o v e d H I R l a m p d e s i g n a t C S L 3.

T a b l e 8 .5 .21 p r o v i d e s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r a 5 0 W P A R 3 0 l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t he

c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r s

. T h e s e r e s u l t s a r e b a s e d o n t h e A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n

a n a l y s i s p e r i o d of 0.9 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p p r i c e s

. N o t e t h a t t he l o w e s t L C C o c c u r s

w i t h t h e i m p r o v e d H I R l a m p d e s i g n a t C S L 3

.

T a b l e 8 .5 .21 p r o v i d e s t he L C C a n d P B P r e s u l t s f o r a 5 0 W P A R 3 0 l a m p o p e r a t i n g i n t he

r e s i d e n t i a l s e c t o r s

. T h e s e r e s u l t s a r e b a s e d o n t he A E O 2 0 0 7 r e f e r e n c e c a s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s , a n

a n a l y s i s p e r i o d o f 3.4 y e a r s , a n d m e d i u m

­ r a n g e l a m p p r i c e s

. N o t e t h a t t he l o w e s t L C C o c c u r s

w i t h t h e i m p r o v e d H I R l a m p d e s i g n a t C S L 3

.

8

­ 57Table8.5.17LCCandPBPResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%Event1:LampFailureBaselineBaseline14.690W,14.6lm/W&2,500hrs,Halogen28.99N/A6.16N/AN/A0.0LampReplCSL116.679W,16.6lm/W&3,000hrs,ImprovedHalogen25.823.177.552.700.50.0CSL218.070W,18,lm/W&3,000hrs,HIR23.925.087.734.910.3­3.8CSL319.866W,19.8,lm/W&4,000hrs,ImprovedHIR22.186.819.055.890.50.0Table8.5.18LCCandPBPResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%Event1:LampFailureBaselineBaseline14.690W,14.6lm/W&2,500hrs,Halogen29.07N/A5.13N/AN/A0.0LampReplCSL116.679W,16.6lm/W&3,000hrs,ImprovedHalogen26.502.576.520.931.50.0CSL218.070W,18,lm/W&3,000hrs,HIR24.404.676.701.690.9­3.8CSL319.866W,19.8,lm/W&4,000hrs,ImprovedHIR23.056.038.012.021.40.08­58Table8.5.19LCCandPBPResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%Event1:LampFailureBaselineBaseline14.075W,14lm/W&2,500hrs,Halogen25.53N/A6.16N/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL115.966W,15.9lm/W&3,000hrs,ImprovedHalogen22.812.717.552.210.60.0CSL217.560W,17.5lm/W&3,000hrs,HIR21.603.927.733.680.40.0CSL319.155W,19.1lm/W&4,000hrs,ImprovedHIR19.645.899.054.910.60.0Table8.5.20LCCandPBPResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%Event1:LampFailureBaselineBaseline14.075W,14lm/W&2,500hrs,Halogen25.28N/A5.13N/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL115.966W,15.9lm/W&3,000hrs,ImprovedHalogen23.212.076.520.761.80.0CSL217.560W,17.5lm/W&3,000hrs,HIR21.873.416.701.271.20.0CSL319.155W,19.1lm/W&4,000hrs,ImprovedHIR20.265.028.011.691.70.08­59Table8.5.21LCCandPBPResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%Event1:LampFailureBaselineBasline11.650W,11.6lm/W&3,000hrs,Halogen17.12N/A5.56N/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL114.044.3W,14lm/W&3,000hrs,ImprovedHalogen17.19­0.076.951.401.06.9CSL215.041.3W,15lm/W&3,000hrs,HIR16.670.457.122.140.76.9CSL317.040W,17lm/W&4,000hrs,ImprovedHIR15.701.428.442.461.217.2Table8.5.22LCCandPBPResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%Event1:LampFailureBaselineBasline11.650W,11.6lm/W&3,000hrs,Halogen17.17N/A4.52N/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL114.044.3W,14lm/W&3,000hrs,ImprovedHalogen17.120.055.910.482.96.9CSL215.041.3W,15lm/W&3,000hrs,HIR16.540.646.090.732.16.9CSL317.040W,17lm/W&4,000hrs,ImprovedHIR15.991.187.410.843.417.28­608.6 D E T A I L E D R E S U L T S A N D S E N S I T I V I T Y R U N S

D O E p r e s e n t s m o r e d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s a n d s e n s i t i v i t y r

u ns L C C a n a l y s i s i n A p p e n d i x 8 B

. T h e s e r e s u l t s i n c l u d e M o n t e C a r l o p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s

, p r i c e s e n s i t i v i t y s c e n a r i o s

, a nd

o p e r a t i n g h o u r s e n s i t i v i t y s c e n a r i o s

.

8

­ 6 1R E F E R E N C E S

i F u l l e r , S i e g l i n d e K . a nd S t e p h e n R . P e t e r s o n

. N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f S t a n d a r d s a n d T e c h n o l o g y

H a n d b o o k 1 3 5 , 1 9 9 6 E d i t i o n

. L i f e

­ C y c l e C o s t i n g M a n u a l f o r

t h e t he F e d e r a l E n e r g y

M a n a g e m e n t P r o g r a m

. P r e p a r e d f or U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y

. F e d e r a l E n e r g y M a n a g e m e nt

P r o g r a m

. O f f i c e o f t he A s s i s t a n t S e c r e t a r y f o r

C o n s e r v a t i o n a n d R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y

. F e b r u a r y

1 9 9 6

. W a s h i n g t o n , D .C

. h t t p : / / f i r e .n i s t .g o v / f i r e / f i r e d o c s / b u i l d 9 6 / P D F / b 9 6 1 2 1

. p df

i i U .S

. D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y

. E n e r g y I n f o r

m a t i o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n

. A n n u a l E n e r g

y O u t l o o k 2 0 0 7

w i t h P r o j e c t i o n s t o 2 0 3 0

. F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 7

. W a s h i n g t o n , D .C

. h t t p : / / w w w .e i a .d o e

. g o v / o i a f / a e o / i n d e x .h t m l

.

i i i U .S

. D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y

. E n e r g y E f f i c i e n c y a n d R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y

. O f f i c e of B u i l d i ng

R e s e a r c h a n d S t a n d a r d s

. T e c h n i c a l S u p p o r t D o c u m e n t : E n e r g y E f f i c i e n c y S t a n d a r d s f or

C o n s u m e r P r o d u c t s : F l u o r e s c e nt L a m p s B a l l a s t P r o p o s e d R u l e

. A p p e n d i x A

. E n g i n e e r i n g

A n a l y s i s S u p p o r t i n g D o c u m e n t a t i o n

. J a n u a r y 2 0 0 0

. W a s h i n g t o n , D .C

. h t t p : / / w w w .e e r e .e n e r g y

. g o v / b u i l d i n g s / a p p l i a n c e

_ s t a n d a r d s / r e s i d e n t i a l / p d f s / a p p e n d i x

_ a

. p d f

.

i v R

. S . M e a n s C o m p a n y

, I n c

. 2 0 0 7 R S M e a n s E l e c t r i c a l C o s t D a t a

. 2 0 0 7

. R . S . M e a ns

C o m p a n y

, I n c

. K i n g s t o n , M a s s a c h u s e t t s

.

v U .S

. D e p a r t m e n t of L a b o r

. B u r e a u of L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s

. M a y 2 0 0 5 O c c u p a t i o n a l E m p l o y m e nt

a n d W a g e E s t i m a t e s

. N a t i o n a l C r o s s

­ I n d u s t r y E s t i m a t e s

. 2 0 0 5

. W a s h i n g t o n , D .C

. h t t p : / / w w w

. b l s .g o v / o e s / o e s

_ d l .h t m

.

v i U .S

. D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y

. E n e r g y I n f o r

m a t i on A d m i n i s t r a t i o n

. F o r m E I A

­ 8 6 1 f o r

2 0 0 5

. 2 0 0 5

. W a s h i n g t o n , D .C

. h t t p : / / w w w .e i a .d o e

. g o v / c n e a f / e l e c t r i c i t y / p a g e / e i a 8 6 1 .h t m l

.

v i i U .S . D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y

. E n e r g y I n f o r

m a t i on A d m i n i s t r a t i o n

. A n n u a l E n e r g y O u t l o o k

2 0 0 7 w i t h P r o j e c t i o n s t o 2 0 3 0

. F e b r u a r y , 2 0 0 7

. W a s h i n g t o n , D .C

. h t t p : / / w w w .e i a .d o e

. g o v / o i a f / a r c h i v e / a e o 0 7 / p d f / a e o t a b

_ 3

. p df

v i i i T h e F e d e r a l R e s e r ve B o a r d

. F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S t a t i s t i c a l R e l e a s e , S e l e c t e d I n t e r e s t R a t e s

, H i s t o r i c a l D a t a

, I n s t r u m e n t : C D s ( s e c o n d a r y m a r k e t ) , M a t u r i t y : 6

­ m o n t h , F r e q u e n c y : A n n u a l

, D e s c r i p t i o n : A v e r a g e r a t e o n 6

­ m o n t h n e g o t i a b l e c e r t i f i c a t e s o f d e p o s i t ( s e c o n d a r y m a r k e t )

,

q u o t e d o n a n i n v e s t m e nt b a s i s

. 2 0 0 6

. W a s h i n g t o n , D .C

. h t t p : / / w w w .f e d e r a l r e s e r v e .g o v / r e l e a s e s / H 1 5 / d a t a

. h t m

.

i x T h e F e d e r a l R e s e r ve B o a r d

. F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S t a t i s t i c a l R e l e a s e , S e l e c t e d I n t e r e s t R a t e s

, H i s t o r i c a l D a t a

, I n s t r u m e n t : S t a t e a n d l o c a l b o n d s , M a t u r i t y : 2 0

­ y e a r

, F r e q u e n c y : M o n t h l y

, D e s c r i p t i o n : B o nd b u y e r g o 2 0

­ b o n d m u n i c i p a l b o n d i n d e x

. 2 0 0 6

. W a s h i n g t o n , D .C

. h t t p : / / w w w .f e d e r a l r e s e r v e .g o v / r e l e a s e s / H 1 5 / d a t a

. h t m

.

8

­ 6 2x T h e F e d e r a l R e s e r ve B o a r d

. F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S t a t i s t i c a l R e l e a s e , S e l e c t e d I n t e r e s t R a t e s

, H i s t o r i c a l D a t a

, I n s t r u m e n t : C o r p o r a t e b o n d s / M o o d y ’ s S e a s o n e d A A A , F r e q u e n c y : A n n u a l

, D e s c r i p t i o n : M o o d y ’ s y i e l d o n s e a s o n e d c o r p o r a t e b o n ds

– a l l i n d u s t r i e s , A A A

. 2 0 0 6

. W a s h i n g t o n , D .C

. h t t p : / / w w w .f e d e r a l r e s e r v e .g o v / r e l e a s e s / H 1 5 / d a t a

. h t m

.

x i M o r t g a g e

­ X

. M o r t g a g e In f

o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e : C o s t o f S a v i n g s In d e

x ( C O S I ) In d e

x H i s t o r y

. 2 0 0 6

. h t t p : / / m o r t g a g e

­ x .c o m / g e n e r a l / i n d e x e s / d e f a

u l t .a s p

. T h e S e p t e m b e r

, 1 2 , 2 0 0 7 m a t e r i a l

f r o m t h i s w e b s i t e i s a v a i l a b l e i n D o c k e t # E E

– 2 0 0 6

– S T D

– 0 1 3 1

. F o r m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n , c o n t a c t

B r e n d a E d w a r d s J o n e s a t ( 2 0 2 ) 5 8 6 2 9 4 5.

x i i D a m o d a r a n O n l i n e

. T h e D a t a P a g e : H i s t o r i c a l R e t u r n s o n S t o c k s

, B o n d s

, a n d B i l l s

– U n i t e d

S t a t e s

. 2 0 0 6

. h t t p : / / p a g e s .s t e r n .n y u

. e d u /

~ a d a m o d a r

. T h e S e p t e m b e r 1 2 , 2 0 0 7 m a t e r i a l f r o m t h i s

w e b s i t e i s a v a i l a b l e i n D o c k e t # E E

– 2 0 0 6

– S T D

– 0 1 3 1

. F o r m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n , c o n t a c t B r e n da

E d w a r d s J o n e s a t ( 2 0 2 ) 5 8 6 2 9 4 5.

x i i i M o d i g l i a n i , F . a n d M . M i l l e r

. T h e C o s t o f C a p i t a l , C o r p o r a t i o n F i n a n c e a n d t h e T h e o r y of

I n v e s t m e n t

. A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c R e v i e w . 1 9 5 8 . ( J u n e ) : p p . 2 6 1

­ 2 9 7.

x i v B o n d s o n l i n e G r o up I n c

. B o n d s O n l i n e

. 2 0 0 3

. h t t p : / / w w w

. b o n d s o n l i n e .c o m

. T h e F e b r u a r y

2 2 , 2 0 0 3 m a t e r i a l f r o m t h i s w e b s i t e i s a v a i l a b l e i n D o c k e t # 8 6

. F o r m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n , c o n t a c t

B r e n d a E d w a r d s J o n e s a t ( 2 0 2 ) 5 8 6 2 9 4 5.

x v D a m o d a r a n

, A

. D a m o d a r a n O n l i n e

. 2 0 0 3

. ( L a s t a c c e s s e d F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 3.)

h t t p : / / p a g e s .s t e r n .n y u .e d u /

~ a d a m o d a r / N e w

_ H o m e

_ P a g e / d a t a .h t m l

. T he F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 3 m a t e r i a l

f r o m t h i s w e b s i t e i s a v a i l a b l e i n D o c k e t # 8 6

. F or m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n , c o n t a c t B r e n d a E d w a r ds

J o n e s a t ( 2 0 2 ) 5 8 6 2 9 4 5.

x v i U .S

. D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e

. B u r e a u o f E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s

. G D P p r i c e c h a n g e : Q 3 , 2 0 00

­ Q 3 , 2 0 0 1

. 2 0 0 2

. h t t p : / / w w w

. b e a

. g o v / n a t i o n a l

. T h e F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 3 m a t e r i a l f r o m t h i s w e b s i t e

i s a v a i l a b l e i n D o c k e t # 8 6

. F o r m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n

, c o n t a c t B r e n d a E d w a r d s J o n e s a t ( 2 0 2 ) 5 86

2 9 4 5.

x v i i B l o o m b e r g

, L . P

. B l o o m b e r g P r o f

e s s i o n a l

. 2 0 0 3

. h t t p : / / a b o u t

. b l o o m b e r g .c o m / p r o f e s s i o n a l / p r o f s e r v i c e .h t m l T h e F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 3 m a t e r i a l f r o m t h i s

w e b s i t e i s a v a i l a b l e i n D o c k e t # 8 6

. F o r m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n , c o n t a c t B r e n d a E d w a r d s J o n e s a t

( 2 0 2 ) 5 8 6 2 9 4 5.

x v i i i V a l ue L i n e

. V a l u e L i n e In v e s t m e n t S u r v e y

. 2 0 0 3

. h t t p : / / w w w .v a l u e l i n e .c o m

. T h e J a n u a r y

2 0 0 3 m a t e r i a l f r o m t h i s w e b s i t e i s a v a i l a b l e i n D o c k e t # 8 6

. F o r m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n , c o n t a c t

B r e n d a E d w a r d s J o n e s a t ( 2 0 2 ) 5 8 6 2 9 4 5.

x i x U .S

. O f f i c e o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t

. C i r c u l a r N o

. A

­ 9 4

. A p

p e n d i x C

. 2 0 0 2

. h t t p : / / w w w

. w h i t e h o u s e .g o v / o m b / c i r c u l a r s / a 0 9 4 / a 9 4

_ a p p x

­ c .h t m l

. T he N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 2 m a t e r i a l

8

­ 6 3f r o m t h i s w e b s i t e i s a v a i l a b l e i n D o c k e t # 8 6

. F or m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n , c o n t a c t B r e n d a E d w a r ds

J o n e s a t ( 2 0 2 ) 5 8 6 2 9 4 5.

x x F e d e r a l R e s e r ve B o a r d

. S t a t i s t i c s : R e l e a s e s a nd H i s t o r i c a l D a t a

­ S e l e c t e d I n t e r e s t R a t e s

–

S t a t e a nd L o c a l B o n d s

. 2 0 0 2

. h t t p : / / w w w .f e d e r a l r e s e r v e

. g o v / r e l e a s e s / h 1 5 / d a t a .h t m

. T he

F e b r u a r y 2 0 0 3 m a t e r i a l f r o m t h i s w e b s i t e i s a v a i l a b l e i n D o c k e t # 8 6

. F o r m o r e i n f o r

m a t i o n

,

c o n t a c t B r e n d a E d w a r d s J o n e s a t ( 2 0 2 ) 5 8 6 2 9 4 5.

x x i U .S . D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y

­ E n e r g y I n f o r

m a t i o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n

. C o m m e r c i a l B u i l d i n g s

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