10C

- i APPENDIX 10C. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

USING ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10C.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10C

- 1

10C.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

.................... 10C

- 2

10C.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

..................... 10C

- 3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10C.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ........................ 10C

- 2

Table 10C.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic

Growth Sc enario

................................ ................................ ........................ 10C

- 3

Table 10C.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ........................ 10C

- 3

Table 10C.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ........................ 10C

- 3

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 10C.1.1 Housing Starts Forecast Under Alternative AEO2011 Economic

Growth Scenarios

................................ ................................ ....................... 10C

- 1

Figure 10C.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price Forecasts under Alternative

AEO2011 Economic Growth Scenarios

................................ .................... 10C

- 210C

- 1 APPENDIX 10C. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

USING ALTERNATIVE EC ONOMIC GROWTH SCENAR IOS

10C.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV)

results using inputs from alternative economic growth scenarios . The scenarios use the energy

price and housing starts forecasts in the High Economic Growth case and the Low E conomic

Growth case fr om EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 201 1 ( AEO 2011 )

. 1

Figure 10C.1.1 and Figure 10C.1.2 show the forecasts for housing starts and residential

electricity prices under the different economic growth scenarios. AEO201 1 provides a forecast to

2035. To estimate the trend after 2035, DOE followed guidelines that the EIA had provided to

the Federal Energy Management Program, which called for using the average rate of ch ange for

electricity during 2020

– 2035.

Figure 10C.1.1 Housing Starts Forecast Under Alternative

AEO2011 Economic Growth Scenarios 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

2008 2018 2028Housing Starts (millions)

Reference

High

Low10C

- 2 Figure 10C.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price For ecasts

under Alternative AEO2011 Economic Growth

Scenarios

10C.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

Table 10C.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, National Water

Savings in Trillion Gallons, High Economic Gro wth Scenario

Trial Standard

Level Efficiency Level Combination NES NWS

Standard Compact quads trillion gal

1 1 1 0.02 0.02

2 2 1 0.07 0.16

3 4 2 1.02 0.61

4 5 2 1.74 1.87 28.00 29.00 30.00 31.00 32.00 33.00 34.00 35.00

2008 2018 2028Electricity Prices (2010$/MMBtu)

Reference

High

Low10C

- 3 Table 10C.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits

, High Economic

Growth Scenario

Trial Standard

Level Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Standard Compact billion

2010$ billion

2010$

1 1 1 0.14 0.04

2 2 1 0.53 0.10

3 4 2 7.60 2.30

4 5 2 19.90 6.67

10C.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

Table 10C.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic Growth

Scenario

Trial Standard

Level Efficiency Level Combination NES NWS

Standard Compact quads trillion gal

1 1 1 0.02 0.01

2 2 1 0.06 0.13

3 4 2 0.85 0.51

4 5 2 1.44 1.55

Table 10C.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits

, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

Trial Standard

Level Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Standard Compact billion

2010$ billion

2010$

1 1 1 0.10 0.03

2 2 1 0.38 0.06

3 4 2 5.44 1.64

4 5 2 14.98 5.1010C

- 4 REFERENCES

1 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 with Projections to 2035,

2011. Washington, DC. Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383(2011)

. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/index.cfm