The Potential Role of Concentrating Solar Power 

within the Context of DOE’s 2030 Solar Cost Targets

Caitlin Murphy, Yinong Sun, Wesley Cole, 

Galen Maclaurin, Craig Turchi, Mark Mehos

DOE Solar Energy Technology Office Summit 

March 18, 2019

Presentation based on https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71912.pdf
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What are the potential impacts of simultaneously 

achieving DOE’s 2030 cost targets for PV and CSP-TES?

SunShot PV Progress and Goals SunShot CSP Progress and Goals

Figure source: https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/goals-solar-energy-technologies-office
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Approach: Capacity Expansion Modeling

Scenario analysis to evaluate the potential impacts of simultaneously achieving the 2030 cost 

targets for PV and CSP-TES through long-term capacity expansion modeling, which simulates 

the expansion and operation of the U.S. generation and transmission systems through 2050

Regional Energy Deployment System 

(ReEDS) model 

National Solar Radiation 

Database (NSRDB)
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Representing DOE’s Cost Targets for CSP-TES

• DOE’s 2030 cost target 

for CSP-TES assumes 

50%-80% reductions in 

the solar field and TES 

material costs

• Cost reductions after 

2030 represent 

technology learning 

and/or improvements 

that could result from 

innovation https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71912.pdf
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Achieving DOE’s 2030 solar cost targets could drive an 

expansion of installed solar capacity by 2050

Mid Case

CSP Target Achieved

Both solar targets achieved

Both solar targets achieved 

+ low-cost batteries

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71912.pdf
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Achieving DOE’s 2030 solar cost targets could expand the 

geographic distribution of economic solar deployment

CSP-TES 

Capacity

PV 

Capacity

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71912.pdf
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The ReEDS model finds the highest-value in low-cost CSPTES plants that have high-capacity factor configurations

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71912.pdf
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Low-cost CSP-TES provides firm energy value

Average dispatch (operation) of the system in 2050 • CSP-TES generation is 

highest during the evening 

and overnight hours in 

low-cost solar scenarios

• This result highlights the 

importance of thermal 

energy storage, which

offers flexibility and allows 

CSP-TES to provide 

dispatchable generation 

when the sun is down

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71912.pdf
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Lost-cost trajectories for non-solar renewable energy technologies are based on 

the 2017 Annual Technology Baseline (https://atb.nrel.gov).

CSP-TES deployment results are sensitive to many 

technology cost and fuel price assumptions

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71912.pdf
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The magnitude and extent of solar installations depend on 

future costs for advanced energy storage

Assuming low-cost battery storage results in increased deployment of PV capacity across 

the contiguous United States, and a corresponding decrease in CSP-TES capacity

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71912.pdf
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Summary of Key Findings

• Solar electricity generating capacity could grow significantly by 2050 if 

DOE’s 2030 solar cost targets are achieved

• The geographic extent of economic solar deployment could expand 

across the contiguous United States, particularly for low-cost CSP-TES 

• CSP-TES is primarily deployed in a highly dispatchable, high-capacity 

factor configuration, which allows CSP-TES to provide valuable services 

to the grid

• The assumed price trajectories of natural gas and advanced energy 

storage have pronounced impacts on the magnitude and geographic 

extent of low-cost CSP-TES deployment

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71912.pdf
www.nrel.gov

This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable 

Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided 

by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies 

Office. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. 

Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, 

acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to 

publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.

NREL/PR-6A20-72717

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