### 8

- i CHAPTER 8. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 8

- 1
8.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

................................ ................................ .................... 8

- 2
8.2. 1 National Energy Savings Definition

................................ ................................ ....... 8

- 2
8.3 INPUTS TO THE NES CALCULATION

................................ ................................ ......... 8

- 4
8.3.1 Shipments

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 8

- 4
8.3.2 National Annual Energy Consumption

................................ ................................ ... 8

- 4
8.3.3 Product Lifetime

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 8

- 9
8.3.4 Site

- to

- Source Energy Conversion Factors

................................ ............................. 8

- 9
8.3.5 Compliance Dates and Analysis Period

................................ ................................ .. 8

- 9
8.4 INPUTS TO NET PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION (Computer Room Air Conditioners)

................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 8

- 11
8.4.1 Net Present Value Definition

................................ ................................ ................ 8

- 11
8.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs

................................ ................................ ...................... 8

- 12
8.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost

................................ ................................ ... 8

- 12
8.4.2.2 Annual Installed Cost

– Weighted by Efficiency Distribution

................ 8

- 13
8.4.2.1 Price Forecast

................................ ................................ ......................... 8

- 14
8.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings

................................ ................... 8

- 14
8.4.2.3 Discount Factor

................................ ................................ ...................... 8

- 15
8.4.2.4 Present Value of Costs

................................ ................................ ........... 8

- 15
8.4.2.5 Present Value of Savings

................................ ................................ ....... 8

- 16
8.5 NES AND NPV RESULTS

................................ ................................ .............................. 8

- 16
8.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary

........................ 8

- 16
8.5.2 National Energy Savings Results

................................ ................................ .......... 8

- 17
8.5.2.1 Water

- cooled and Evaporatively

- cooled Products

................................ . 8

- 17
8.5.2.2 VRF Water

- source Heat Pumps

................................ ............................. 8

- 18
8.5.2.3 Computer Room Air Conditioners

................................ ......................... 8

- 18
8.5.3 Annual Costs and Savings

................................ ................................ .................... 8

- 19
8.5.4 Net Present Value Results

................................ ................................ ..................... 8

- 20

LIST OF TABLES

Table 8.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs

................................ ................................ ............ 8

- 4 Table 8.3.2 Efficiency Distributions and Market Weighted

- Average UECs: Water

- Cooled Equipment ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h with Electric Resistance/No Heating

.............. 8

- 5 Table 8.3.3 Water

- Cooled and Evaporatively

- Cooled Equipment Market Shares by Efficiency Level, Base Case Used for NIA Analysis

................................ ............................ 8

- 5 Table 8.3.4 VRF Water

- Source Heat Pump Market Shares by Efficiency Level, Base Case Used for NIA Analysis

................................ ................................ ......................... 8

- 6 Table 8.3.5 Computer Room Air Conditioner Market Shares by Efficiency Level, Base Case Used for NIA Analysis

................................ ................................ ......................... 8

- 6

### 8

- ii Table 8.3.6 Water

- Cooled and Evaporatively

- Cooled Equipment Market

- Weighted Annual Average Energy Consumption by Standard Level (kwh/year)

............................ 8

- 7 Table 8.3.7 VRF Water

- Source Heat Pump Market

- Weighted Annual Average Energy Consumption by Standard Level (kwh/year)

................................ ....................... 8

- 8 Table 8.3.8 Computer Room Air Conditioner Shipment

- Weighted Annual Average Energy Consumption by Standard Level (kwh/year)

................................ ....................... 8

- 8 Table 8.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs

................................ ................................ ................... 8

- 12 Table 8.4.2 Total Installed Cost per Unit by Efficiency Level from Life

- Cycle Cost (2011$)

................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 8

- 12 Table 8.4.3 Shipment

- Weighted Average Total Installed Cost by Standard Level (2011$) 8

- 13 Table 8.5.1 Inputs to the NES Spreadsheet Model

................................ ............................... 8

- 16 Table 8.5.2 National Energy Savings for Water

- Cooled and Evaporatively

- Cooled Products: Based on Historical Trends (Quads, 201 3

– 2042 or 2014

- 2043)

....................... 8

- 17 Table 8.5.3 National Energy Savings for Water

- Cooled and Evaporatively

- Cooled Products: Shipments Fixed to 2009 (Quads, 2013

– 2042 or 2014

- 2043)

........................... 8

- 18 Table 8.5.4 National Energy Savings for VRF Water

- Source Heat Pumps >135,000 Btu/h (Quads, 2013

- 2042)

................................ ................................ ........................... 8

- 18 Table 8.5.5 National Energy Savings for Computer Room Air Conditioners (Quads, 2012

- 2041 or 2013

- 2042)

................................ ................................ ............................ 8

- 19 Table 8.5.6 Summary of Cumulative Net Present Value for Computer Room Air Conditioners (Seven Percent Discount Rate)

................................ ................................ .......... 8

- 22 Table 8.5.7 Summary of Cumulative Net Present Value for Computer Room Air Conditioners (Three Percent Discount Rate)

................................ ................................ ........... 8

- 22

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 8.5.1 National Annual Costs and Savings for Efficiency Level 1 (Small Air

- Cooled Computer Room Air Conditioners)

................................ ................................ ... 8

- 20 Figure 8.5.2 Cumulative NES and NPV Results for Small Air

- Cooled Computer Room Air Conditioners Based on a Seven

- Percent Discount Rate

................................ .... 8

- 218

- 1 

### CHAPTER 8. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

8.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the method for estimating the future national energy savings (NES) to customers from possible efficiency levels for water

- cooled and evaporatively

- cooled products, variable refrigerant flow ( VRF ) water

- source heat pumps, and computer room air conditioners. This chapter also describes the method for estimating the magnitude and net present value (NPV) of the future NES for computer room air conditioners. Results of the national impact analysis (NI A) described here may include , depending on equipment, national energy consumption and savings, monetary value of energy savings to the N ation as a result of standards, increased total installed costs to the Nation as a result of standards, and the NPV of energy savings (the difference between the present monetary values of energy savings and the increased total installed costs).

The NES for water

- cooled and evaporatively

- cooled products considers the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air

- Conditioning ( ASHRAE ) standard level as well as several higher efficiency standard levels for the eight equipment classes of commercial water

cooled and evaporatively

- cooled air

- conditioning equipment that were analyzed. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) examined various standard levels for each class of equipment, including the ASHRAE Standard 90. 1

- 2010 efficiency level, the max

- tech level (the highest efficiency level of equipment currently on the market), and several levels between. The baseline
for ea ch level is the current federal energy conservation standard. However, for levels higher than
ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010, DOE presents the energy savings as net of the savings from
ASHRAE. The NES for VRF water

- source heat pumps follows the same method and a nalyzes two equipment classes of VRF water

- source heat pumps. However, DOE did not find any model on the market whose efficiency was less than the ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010 levels.

DOE determined both the NPV and the NES for each potential efficiency lev el it considered for each of the 15 equipment classes of computer room air conditioners it examined. DOE considered four efficiency levels that were higher than the baseline efficiency level defined by the ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010 for each of the 15 equipment classes. DOE also included a market baseline level in the analysis spreadsheet. Because of the timing difference between DOE adopting standards at ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010 levels as opposed to the adoption of standards of a higher efficiency lev el

, DOE must address the potential energy savings that could occur in the time between the dates at which compliance would be required . DOE calculates the benefits for adopting standards that are more efficient than ASHRAE by analyzing the energy savings f rom the adoption of standards at the ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010 level compared with
the market baseline and then calculating the savings from the adoption of more stringent standards compared with the ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010 as baseline. Because DOE by st atute may not adopt standards at efficiency levels less stringent than those specified in ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010, it reports all energy and economic impacts in this analysis as potential impacts compared with adoption of the ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010 ba seline levels.

DOE performed all calculations using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible
on the Internet at

### 8

- 2 http://www1.e ere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/ashrae_products_docs_ meeting.html

.
The important factors in the calculation of national energy consumption for each class of equipment include shipments, stock or inventory, national average electricity consumption, and the site

- to

- source conversion factor used to convert the annual site energy savings into the annual
amount of en ergy saved at the source of electric generation (the source energy). This chapter discusses how these factors are used in the calculation of national energy and economic impacts. Chapter 7 , Shipments Analysis, provides a detailed description of the shipmen ts analysis that DOE used to forecast future purchases of equipment.

DOE was not able to obtain information that quantified how voluntary energy efficiency programs affect equipment efficiencies on a national basis, but voluntary programs may increase the share of energy

- efficient equipment prior to the implementation date of any new standards. Consequently, DOE did not explicitly incorporate the impact of market

- based initiatives into the shipment forecasts detailed in c hapter 7 of this technical support d ocument ( TSD )

.

8.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

8.2.1 National Energy Savings Definition

DOE calculates annual NES as the difference between two scenarios: a base case (without new standards) and a standards case (with new standards). DOE develops NES
estimates for each product class independently. Positive values of NES correspond to net energy savings; i.e., national annual energy consumption (AEC) with standards is less than the AEC in the base case. For each product class and standards case, DOE calculated the total energy savings using a stock accounting method. The number of new shipments in any given year is assumed to remain in the commercial building stock for the assumed lifetime of the product, at which point that entire year’s shipments disappear from existing stock. In this way, the total stock, or number of surviving units, in any given year is the sum of that year’s shipments plus t he shipments from the previous product lifetime minus one year ’ s worth

.

The annual base total energy use in any given year is t he sum med product of the shipments for that year and the previous product life minus one year ’ s worth and the market

weighted average base unit energy consumption ( UEC ) a



### Annual Base Total Energy Use year = n 

### = � S h ipments year 

### × Base UEC year n

year = n

− ( Life

− 1 ) 

### in each relevant year (multiplied by a site to source conversion factor).

a The market weighted average base UEC is based on the distribution of efficiencies under the current federal standards (base case). It includes products both meeting and exceeding the current federal minimum efficiency. It is

not the UEC for a product at a specified energy efficiency ratio (EER).

### 8

- 3 As currently modeled, the base UEC remains constant throughout time. As a result, in the previous calculation, Base UEC year 

### could be moved outside the summation terms as Base UEC

.

The annual standards case total energy use in any given year is the sum med product of the shipments for that year and the previous product life minus one year ’ s worth and the market weighted average standards case UEC b



### Annual Standards Case Total Energy Use year = n



### = � S h ipments year 

### × Standards UEC year n

year = n

− ( Life

− 1 ) 

### in each relevant year (multiplied by a site

- to

- source conversion factor).

Prior to the analysis period, the standards case UEC is equal to the Base UEC, as standards have not yet become effective. Therefore, in the earlier part of the analysis period, energy savings acc rue only from the newer units in the building stock. Later in the analysis period, all units in the building stock will have met the lower standards UEC (as they were all shipped within the analysis period) and will be providing energy savings.

For VRF wa ter source heat pumps, energy savings for heating based on the coefficient of performance ( COP ) are also taken into account:

Annual Base Total Energy Use year = n

= � S h ipments year × ( Base UEC year n

year = n

− ( Life

− 1 ) + Base UEC

_ h eat year )

Annual Standards Case Total Energy Use year = n

= � S h ipments year × ( Standards UEC year + Standards UEC

_ h eat year ) n

year = n

− ( Life

− 1 )



### For all products, the annual energy savings is the difference between the base case total energy use and the standards case total energy use.

Annual Energy Savings year = n



### = Annual Base Total Energy Use year = n



### − Annual Standards Case Total Energy Use year = n



### DOE calculated the cumulative energy savings over the analysis period by summing the annual energy savings for each year in the analysis per iod. The analysis period differs by product, as discussed in the next section.

b The market weighted average standards UEC is based on the distribution of efficiencies under a given amended
federal standards scenario. It may include products both meeting and exceeding the given amended federal standards level (with the exception of the Max Tech scenario, in which it is assumed that no product exceeds the amended federal standards level). It is not the UEC for a product at a specified EER.

### 8

- 4 Cumulative Energy Savings = � Annual Energy Savings year x + 29

year = x



### For the ASHRAE standard case , the cumulative energy savings are presented as in the previous equation . For higher efficiency levels, the Department calculates cumulative energy savings as net of ASHRAE standard energy savings (water

- cooled and evaporatively

- cooled equipment and VRF

- w ater source heat pumps) or uses the ASHRAE s tandard as the base case in the equations shown previously (computer room air conditioners).

8.3 INPUTS TO THE NES CALCULATION

Table 8.3

. 1 lists the inputs for the determination of NES. Each of the inputs is discussed in more detail

.
Table 8.3

. 1 National Energy Saving Inputs
Input Shipments Annual Unit Energy Consumption (UEC) (quads)
Product Lifetime
Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factor (quads) (Btu/kwh)



### 8.3.1 Shipments
DOE forecasted shipments for the base case and all standards cases (see chapter 7

, Shipments Analysis). DOE thinks that the shipment projections under the standards cases could be lower than those in the base

- case projection because the higher installed costs would cause some customers to forego new equipment purchases. However, DOE ha s no information that would allow a calculation of this effect. T he projections of total shipments are the same in both the base case and standards cases.

8.3.2 National Annual Energy Consumption
The national AEC is the product of the annual UEC and the stocks o f units of each vintage. This approach accounts for differences in UEC from year to year. DOE initially calculated the AEC at the site (i.e., electricity in kilowatt hours [kWh] consumed by the units). DOE then calculated primary energy consumption from si te energy consumption by applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity.

DOE uses a market

- or shipment

- weighted average annual UEC in its calculation of the national AEC

. This takes into account that the equipment market s reflect shipments with a distribution of efficiencies as was shown in chapter 2. To assess the impacts on the market from the introduction of higher standards, DOE calculates impacts based on efficiency

- di stribution

### 8

- 5 weighted annual UEC. Because DOE only developed energy use for explicit efficiency levels, the distribution of efficiencies used in the calculation is based on the data outlined in chapter 2 to describe the current market, but is “compressed” t o fit into the range of efficiency levels selected for analysis. To do this, each DOE

- analyzed efficiency level was examined. The fraction of the
current market distribution that surrounds a given analyzed efficiency level is allocated to that efficiency l evel.

For each standard level analyzed, DOE assumed that all equipment shipped in the base case with efficiencies that are less than the standard level become shipments at that standard level in the standard

- level shipment distributions. Shipments in the base

- case distribution that are more efficient than the efficiency defined by the standard level are assumed to be unaffected. DOE terms this a “rollup” scenario, because base

- case efficiency shipments that are less than the proposed standard level “roll u p” to meet the standard.

Table 8.3

. 2 is an example of how DOE compresses the market distribution into efficiency levels by binning as well as the use of the roll

- up scenario and resultant market

- weighted average
UECs..

Table 8.3

. 2 Efficiency Dis tributions and Market Weighted

- Average UECs: Water

C ooled Equipment ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h with Electric Resistance/ No Heat ing

Standard
Scenario EER Market Weighted Average

UEC 11.5 (11.5

- 11.8) 12.1 (11.9

- 12.5) 13 (12.6

- 13.4) 14 (13.5

- 14.4) 15 (14.5

- 15.6) 16.4 (15.7

- 16.4) Total
Base Case 7% 27% 13% 13% 20% 20% 100% 8,088
ASHRAE Standard 34% 13% 13% 20% 20% 100% 8,065
13 EER 47% 13% 20% 20% 100% 7,912

14 EER 60% 20% 20% 100% 7,705
15 EER 80% 20% 100% 7,473
Max Tech 100% 100% 7,101



### The compressed market baseline distribution s , used for the NES analyses (and NPV analyses in the case of computer room air conditioners)

, are shown in Table 8.3

. 3 through Table
8.3

. 5 , followed by the market

- or shipment

- weighted average annual UECs for each product class and analyzed efficiency level ( Tab le 8.3

. 6 through Table 8.3

. 8 )

.

Table 8.3

. 3 Water

- C ooled and Evaporatively

- C ooled Equipment Market Shares by Efficiency Level, Base Case Used for NIA Analysis

Equipment Class Market Baseline ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Water

- c ooled, ≥65 and <135 kBtu/h, Electric Resistance/No Heating 7% 27% 13% 13% 20% 20%

Water

- c ooled, ≥65 and <135 kBtu/h, Other Heating 7% 27% 13% 13% 20% 20%

### 8

- 6 Equipment Class Market
Baseline ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Water

- c ooled, ≥135 and <240 kBtu/h, Electric Resistance/No Heating 29% 21% 7% 7% 29% 7%

Water

- c ooled, ≥135 and <240 kBtu/h, Other Heating 29% 21% 7% 7% 29% 7%

Water

- c ooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h, Electric Resistance/No Heating 17% 20% 29% 14% 20%

-

Water

- c ooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h, Other Heating 14% 23% 29% 14% 20%

- Evap

- c ooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h, Electric Resistance/No Heating 65% 27% 6% 2%

- -

Evap

- c ooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h, Other Heating 56% 35% 7% 2%

- -



### Table 8.3

. 4 VRF Water

- S ource Heat Pump Market Shares by Efficiency Level, Base Case Used for NIA Analysis

Equipment Class Market Baseline ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
≥ 135 and <760 kBtu/h without Heat Recovery - 3% 73% 15% 3% 5%

≥ 135 and <760 kBtu/h with Heat Recovery - 5% 64% 18% 5% 8%



### Table 8.3

. 5 Computer Room Air Conditioner Market Shares by Efficiency Level, Base Case Used for NIA Analysis

Equipment Class Market Baseline ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Air

- cooled, <65, kB tu/h 2% 9% 20% 45% 18% 5%
Air

- cooled, ≥65 and <240 kB tu/h - 2% 20% 45% 31% 2%

Air

- cooled, ≥240 and <760
kBtu/h - 2% 20% 45% 31% 2%

Water

- cooled, <65 k Btu/h 5% 23% 23% 36% 10% 3%
Water

- cooled, ≥65 and <240
kBtu/h 2% 26% 30% 22% 16% 4%

Water

- cooled, ≥240 and <760
kBtu/h 2% 26% 30% 22% 16% 4%

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 k Btu/h 5% 23% 23% 36% 10% 3%

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65 and <240
kBtu/h 2% 26% 30% 22% 16% 4%

### 8

- 7 Equipment Class Market
Baseline ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760
kBtu/h 2% 26% 30% 22% 16% 4%

Glycol

- cooled, <65 k Btu/h 5% 23% 23% 36% 10% 3% Glycol

- cooled, ≥65 and <240
kBtu/h 2% 26% 30% 22% 16% 4%

Glycol

- cooled, ≥240 and <760
k Btu/h 2% 26% 30% 22% 16% 4%

Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 k Btu/h 5% 23% 23% 36% 10% 3%

Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65 and <240
kBtu/h 2% 26% 30% 22% 16% 4%

Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760
k Btu/h 2% 26% 30% 22% 16% 4%



### Table 8.3

. 6 Water

- C ooled and Evaporatively

- C ooled Equipment Market

- Weighted Annual Average Energy Consumption by Standard Level (kwh/year)

Equipment Class Market Baseline ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Water

- c ooled, ≥65 and <135 kBtu/h, Electric Resistance/No Heating 8,088 8,065 7,912 7,705 7,473 7,101

Water

- c ooled, ≥65 and <135 kBtu/h, Other Heating 8,126 8,102 7,912 7,705 7,473 7,101

Water

- c ooled, ≥135 and <240 kBtu/h, Electric Resistance/No Heating 15,776 15,309 15,078 14,602 14,137 13,490

Water

- c ooled, ≥135 and <240 kBtu/h, Other Heating 15,818 15,407 15,078 14,602 14,137 13,490

Water

- c ooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h, Electric Resistance/No Heating 36,893 36,279 35,794 34,518 33,422

-

Water

- c ooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h, Other Heating 36,980 36,452 35,794 34,518 33,422

- Evap

- c ooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h, Electric Resistance/No Heating 46,166 44,584 43,265 41,983

- -

Evap

- c ooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h, Other Heating 46,436 45,033 43,265 41,983

- -

### 8

- 8 Table 8.3

. 7 VRF Water

- S ource Heat Pump Market

- Weighted Annual Average Energy Consumption by Standard Level (kwh/year)

Equipment Class Market Baseline ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
≥ 135 and <760 kBtu/h without Heat Recovery (Cooling) 18

, 641 18

, 641 18

, 598 17

, 797 17

, 011 15

, 872

≥ 135 and <760 kBtu/h without Heat Recovery ( Heating ) 7

, 385 7

, 385 7

, 379 7

, 253 7

, 117 6

, 893

≥ 135 and <760 kBtu/h with Heat Recovery (Cooling) 18

, 176 18

, 176 18

, 094 17

, 343 16

, 568 15

, 421

≥ 135 and <760 kBtu/h with Heat Recovery ( Heating ) 4

, 799 4

, 799 4

, 788 4

, 680 4

, 558 4

, 355



### Table 8.3

. 8 Computer Room Air Conditioner Shipment

- Weighted Annual Average Energy Consumption by Standard Level (kwh/year)

Equipment Class Market Baseline ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Air

- cooled, <65, kBtu/h 23,968 23,910 23,670 23,101 21,917 20,649
Air

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h 84,109 84,109 83,911 82,152 77,667 72,137

Air

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h 197,405 197,405 196,883 192,338 180,939 167,066

Water

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h 22,774 22,676 22,215 21,489 20,408 19,343
Water

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h 84,342 84,195 82,431 79,281 75,497 71,507

Water

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h 190,426 190,075 185,912 178,521 169,685 160,408

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h 14,441 14,391 14,154 13,781 13,229 12,685

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h 53,536 53,459 52,551 50,932 48,993 46,953

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h 120,357 120,175 118,027 114,223 109,688 104,937

Glycol

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h 22,672 22,571 22,097 21,355 20,256 19,177 Glycol

- cooled, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h 92,071 91,878 89,633 85,713 81,092 76,299

Glycol

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h 204,842 204,399 199,276 190,362 179,888 169,053

Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h 18,324 18,249 17,896 17,344 16,528 15,729

Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h 74,341 74,195 72,508 69,573 66,125 62,557

### 8

- 9 Equipment Class Market
Baseline ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h 165,328 164,993 161,138 154,458 146,634 138,563



### 8.3.3 Product Lifetime

The source for lifetime of water

- cooled and evaporatively

- cooled products was the advanced notice of proposed rulemaking on Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps , which was published in the Federal Register o n July 29, 2004. 69 FR 45460. The mean product lifetime from the prior TSD was estimated to be 15.4 years. More recent sources confirm this estimate including the 2008 California Database for Energy Efficient Resources , which lists 15 years. For this anal ysis, DOE used a single

- value lifetime of 15 years.
For VRF water

- source heat pumps, DOE used a product lifetime of 1 9 years based on the ASHRAE 2011 HVAC Applications Handbook

. c



### 8.3.4 Site

- to

- Source Energy Conversion Factors For computer room air conditioners, DOE used a product lifetime of 15 years, based on information discussed in chapter 6

.

For all products the Department calculated energy savings as site energy, which it then converted to source energy

— the energy that electric power plants consume. The Department
used site

- to

- source energy conversion factors from the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 ( AEO 2010 ) (water and evaporatively cooled products

– not updated from the notice of data availability ( NODA ) ) or AEO 2011 (computer room air conditioners and VRF water

- source heat pumps). The Department extrapolated the values for years after 2035 from their relative sources because the AEO does not forecast beyond 2035. To arrive at values for these later years, the Department used the forecast’s trend from 2025 to 2035 to establish conversion factors in the years 2036 to
204 3

.

8.3.5 C ompliance Dates and Analysis Period
If DOE were to propose a rule prescribing energy conservation standards at the efficiency levels contained in ASHRAE Standard 90.1 2010, the Energy Policy and Conservation Act ( EPCA ) states that compliance with amended s tandards is required on or after a date that is two or three years (depending on equipment size) after the effective date of the applicable minimum

c ASHRAE’s handbook does not list a service life for VRF equipment specifically, but it does provide service life estimates for water

- source heat pumps generally. In this regard, ASHRAE cites two different studies for equipment
service lif e. The first study of this type of equipment reported a service life of 19 years. The second, more

- recent study cited suggests a service life of 24 years for all classes of direct expansion cooling systems. This second study relies heavily on extrapolation of a survival curve based on a sample of 1907 DX equipment observations from various equipment classes from which 284 units had actually been replaced and most were still in service. (ASHRAE Research Project 1237

- TRP Interactive Web

- based Owning and Opera ting Cost Database Final Report

, July 2005. Available at www.ashrae.org ) However, as VRF products are new to the U.S. with relatively little data on lifetime, DOE has relied on the older, more conservative, 19

- year service life estimate for its analysis.

### 8

- 10 energy efficiency requirement in the amended ASHRAE standard (i.e., ASHRAE Standard 90.1 2010). (42 U.S.C. 6 313(a)(6)(D))

For all water

- cooled and evaporatively

- cooled equipment in this rulemaking, the effective date in ASHRAE Standard 90.1 2010 is June 1, 2011. Thus, if DOE decides to adopt the levels in ASHRAE Standard 90.1 2010, the rule would apply to small equipment (two product classes) manufactured on or after June 1, 2013, which is two years from the effective date specified in ASHRAE Standard 90.1 2010, and to large and very large equipment (six product classes) manufactured on or after June 1, 2014, wh ich is three years from the effective date specified in ASHRAE Standard 90.1 2010.

For VRF water

- source heat pumps in this rulemaking, ASHRAE Standard 90.1

– 2010 does not specify an effective date; therefore the effective date is assumed to be the publicat ion date of ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010, or October 29, 2010. Thus, if DOE decides to adopt the levels in ASHRAE Standard 90.1

– 2010, the rule would apply to large and very large equipment (the product class analyzed here) manufactured on or after October 29, 2013, which is three years from the effective date specified in ASHRAE Standard 90.1

– 2010.

For computer room air conditioners, the rule would apply to equipment <65,000 Btu/h (10 product classes combined into five for analysis purposes) manufactured on o r after October 29, 2012, which is two years after the publication date of ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010, and to equipment ≥65,000 Btu/h (20 product classes combined into 10 for analysis purposes) manufactured on or after October 29, 2013, which is three years after the publication date of ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010. Typically equipment at or above 65,000 Btu/h and less than 135,000 Btu/h would have a compliance date two years after the publication of ASHRAE Standard 90.1. However, because ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2 010 established a product class for computer room air conditioners that combines traditional small and large categories, DOE has decided to assign the later compliance date of three years after the publication of ASHRAE 90.1

- 2010 to all computer room air c onditioner product classes that cover products between 65,000 Btu/h and 240,000 Btu/h.

If DOE were to propose a rule prescribing energy conservation standards higher than the efficiency levels contained in ASHRAE Standard 90. 1

- 2010, EPCA states that any su ch standards “shall become effective for products manufactured on or after a date which is four years after the date such rule is published in the Federal Register.” (42 U.S.C. 6313(a)(6)(D)) Thus, for products for which DOE might adopt a level more string ent than the ASHRAE efficiency levels, the rule would apply to products manufactured on or after April 29, 2017, which is four years from the date of publication of the final rule that DOE must meet for efficiency levels that are higher than ASHRAE (30 mon ths after publication of ASHRAE, which was October 29, 2010).

A 30

- year analysis period is used for the NES, extending from the compliance date based on adoption of the levels in ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010. For small computer room air conditioners, the anal ysis period extends from 2012 to 2041; for large and very large computer room air conditioners, small water

- cooled and evaporatively

- cooled equipment, and VRF water

source heat pumps, the analysis period extends from 2013 to 2042; for large and very large

water

- cooled and evaporatively

- cooled equipment the analysis period extends from 2014 to

### 8

- 11 2043. The time period for energy savings for standards that are higher than ASHRAE Standard
90.1

- 2010 is from 2017 to 2041, 2042, or 2043, based on the product classes as previously described. This approach accounts for any lost energy savings from a delay incurred by DOE’s not adopting ASHRAE efficiency levels, but in stead adopting standards at efficiency levels higher than those specified in ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010.

8.4 INPUTS TO NET PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION (Computer Room Air Conditioners)

8.4.1 Net Present Value Definition
The NPV is the value in the present of a time seri es of costs and savings. The NPV is given by the following equation:

NPV = PVS

– PVC

Where:

PVS = present value of operating cost savings (including electricity, repair, and maintenance costs) ($), and
PVC = present value of increased total insta lled costs (including equipment and installation) ($).

The PVS and PVC are determined according to the following expressions:

PVS = � OCS t 

### ∗ DF t t



### PVC = � TIC t 

### ∗ DF t t



### W here :

OCS = total annual operating cost savings ($),
TIC = total annual installed cost increases ($),
DF = discount factor, and

t = year ( PVS is summed over 2012 to 2055 or 2013 to 2056, and PVC is summed over 2012 to 2041 or 2013 to 2042).

DOE determined the contribution to PVC for each year, from the effective date of the standard (2012 or 2013) to the year 2041 or 2042, discounted for the analysis to the year 2012. The contribution to PVS was determined for each year, from the effective date of the standard (2012 or 2013) to t he year when the last units purchased in 2041 or 2042 have retired (assumed to be 2055 or 2056). DOE first calculated costs and savings as the difference between a standards case and a base case represented as adoption of the ASHRAE s tandard . DOE calculate d a

### 8

- 12 discount factor from the discount rate and the number of years between the “present” (i.e., year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. DOE
calculated the NPV as the sum over time of the discounted net savings.

8.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs

Table 8.4

. 1 lists the inputs to the NPV calculation. Each of the inputs is then discussed in detail

.

Table 8.4

. 1 Net Present Value Inputs
Input Total Annual Installed Cost (TICt) ($) Total Annual Operating Cost Savings (OCSt) ($)
Discount Factor Present Value of Costs (PVC) ($) Present Value of Savings (PVS) ($)



### 8.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost The increase in the total annual installed cost is equal to the annual change in the per

- unit total installed cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the shipments
forecasted in the standards case. The total ins talled cost includes both the equipment cost and the installation price. DOE based average equipment costs on average manufacturer prices (see chapter 6 , LifeCycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis) multiplied by average overall markup values shown in chapt er 5). DOE based average installation prices on nationally representative values for each equipment class and efficiency level (see chapter 6 ) and developed base

- case and standards

- case energy

- efficiency shipment scenarios as discussed in chapter 7 . For bo th the base

case and standards

- case energy

- efficiency scenarios, DOE calculated annual market

- or shipment

- weighted

- average efficiencies. Associated with each annual shipment

- weighted

average efficiency , DOE assigned a total installed cost, based on shipment

- weighted total installed cost for all efficiency levels shipped under that standards

- case scenario.

DOE determined the relationship between efficiency level and total installed cost for each compute r room air conditioner class as shown in Table 8.4

. 2 . DOE considers the ASHRAE level as the base minimum standard that it could set under Federal law. In the NIA, DOE establishes the NPV for adopting standards higher than the ASHRAE base case, but does not need to determine the NPV of adoption of that minimum base case. DOE only looked at subsequent higher standard levels to determine whether each higher level, when ex amined independently, has a positive NPV compared with the ASHRAE base case.

Table 8.4

. 2 Total Installed Cost per Unit by Efficiency Level from Life

- Cycle Cost (2011$)
Equipment Class ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Air

- cooled, <65, kBtu/h $ 12,003 $ 13,491 $ 15,239 $ 17,295 $ 19,711
Air

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ 38,943 $ 41,179 $ 43,588 $ 46,185 $ 48,984

Air

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 56,633 $ 59,852 $ 63,322 $ 67,061 $ 71,092

### 8

- 13 Equipment Class ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Water

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h $ 23,716 $ 20,284 $ 17,504 $ 15,253 $ 13,429
Water

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ 22,767 $ 28,390 $ 35,948 $ 46,106 $ 59,759

Water

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 42,240 $ 52,910 $ 67,250 $ 86,522 $ 112,423

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h $ 25,025 $ 21,393 $ 18,451 $ 16,069 $ 14,139

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ 23,952 $ 29,903 $ 37,901 $ 48,651 $ 63,099

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 44,489 $ 55,781 $ 70,956 $ 91,351 $ 118,760

Glycol

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h $ 23,764 $ 20,332 $ 17,552 $ 15,301 $ 13,477 Glycol

- cooled, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h $ 22,857 $ 28,473 $ 36,020 $ 46,164 $ 59,795

Glycol

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 42,419 $ 53,089 $ 67,430 $ 86,702 $ 112,602

Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h $ 25,073 $ 21,441 $ 18,500 $ 16,117 $ 14,187

Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h $ 24,041 $ 29,984 $ 37,971 $ 48,705 $ 63,131

Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 44,668 $ 55,960 $ 71,136 $ 91,530 $ 118,939



### 8.4.2.2 Annual Installed Cost

– Weighted by Efficiency Distribution
Using the base

- case market distribution and the calculated distributions at each possible standard level, as discussed in the NES section, DOE developed an avera ge shipment

- weighted
total installed cost for all shipments for each proposed standard level. The shipment

- weighted
total installed costs for each possible standard level are listed in Table 8.4

. 3

.

Table 8.4

. 3 Shipment

- Weighted Average Total Installed Cost by Standard Level (2011$)
Equipment Class ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Air

- cooled, <65, kBtu/h $ 15,091 $ 15,260 $ 15,816 $ 17,404 $ 19,711
Air

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ 43,945 $ 43,989 $ 44,509 $ 46,240 $ 48,984
Air

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 63,836 $ 63,899 $ 64,647 $ 67,140 $ 71,092
Water

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h $ 19,562 $ 18,594 $ 17,169 $ 15,206 $ 13,429

Water

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ 32,568 $ 34,142 $ 38,526 $ 46,652 $ 59,759

Water

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 60,836 $ 63,823 $ 72,141 $ 87,559 $ 112,423

### 8

- 14 Equipment Class ASHRAE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h $ 20,629 $ 19,605 $ 18,096 $ 16,019 $ 14,139

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ 34,324 $ 35,990 $ 40,629 $ 49,229 $ 63,099
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 64,168 $ 67,330 $ 76,132 $ 92,447 $ 118,760 Glycol

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h $ 19,610 $ 18,642 $ 17,217 $ 15,254 $ 13,477 Glycol

- cooled, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h $ 32,644 $ 34,217 $ 38,594 $ 46,709 $ 59,795 Glycol

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 61,015 $ 64,003 $ 72,320 $ 87,738 $ 112,602 Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h $ 20,678 $ 19,653 $ 18,145 $ 16,068 $ 14,187 Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h $ 34,398 $ 36,062 $ 40,695 $ 49,282 $ 63,131 Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 64,347 $ 67,509 $ 76,311 $ 92,627 $ 118,939



### 8.4.2.1 Price Forecast
As discussed in chapter 6, DOE used a constant equipment price assumption for the default forecast in the NIA. In order to investigate the impact of different product price forecasts on the consumer net present value (NPV) for the considered efficiency levels for computer room air conditioners, DOE als o considered two alternative price trends. One of these used an exponential fit on the deflated Producer Price I ndex for all other miscellaneous refrigeration and
air

- conditioning equipment , and the other is based on the “deflator

— other d urables excludin g medical ” that was forecasted for AEO2011 . Details on how these alternative price trends were developed are in appendix 8

- A , which also presents the results of the sensitivity analysis.

8.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings
The annual operating cost savin gs to the nation are equal to the change in the average annual operating costs (difference between base case and standards case) per unit in the stock for each year multiplied by the total number of units in the stock forecasted in the standards case. Calc ulations are done separately for each equipment class.

The annual operating cost includes electricity, repair, and maintenance costs.

Annual Energy Cost Savings . DOE calculated annual energy costs based on national

average commercial electricity prices shown in AEO 2011 . To calculate annual energy cost savings for a particular equipment class in a given year, DOE first calculated the annual energy costs in each forecast year at each efficiency level by multiplying the U.S. average energy consumption at each efficiency le vel by the stock at each efficiency level and in each equipment

### 8

- 15 class, as appropriate, in each year. This total is then multiplied by the national average commercial electricity prices. To determine energy savings, the national energy costs at each efficie ncy level (Levels 1

– 4) were then subtracted from the national energy costs at the ASHRAE level. Commercial prices for electricity are derived from the reference case AEO 2011 forecasts through 2035. DOE extrapolated the trend in values from 2025 to 2035 of the forecast to establish fuel prices from 2035 to 2056, through the end of the NPV analysis period. This method of extrapolation is in line with methods the Energy Information Administration ( EIA ) uses to forecast fuel prices for the Federal Energy Manag ement Program.

Annual Repair Costs . DOE based average annual repair costs on a base repair cost, which increased with the value of the computer room air conditioner equipment in 2011$ (see chapter 5). Using the efficiency distribution of the stock at each standard level analyzed, DOE developed a weighted average repair cost for the stock based on the distribution at each standard level.

Annual Maintenance Costs . DOE determined average annual maintenance costs for computer room air conditioners from the li fe

- cycle cost analysis (see chapter 6 ). DOE used a value of $ 298 per year. These values were applied to all computer room air conditoiners in the stock at each year.

8.4.2.3 Discount Factor
DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by the discount factor to determine the present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the following equation:

DF = 1 ( 1 + r ) t

− tp


### W here :

r = discount rate (percent),

t = year of the monetary value,
tp = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE estimated national impacts with both a 3 percent and a 7 percent real discount rate. These discount rates are used in accordance with the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) guidance to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis (OMB Ci rcular A4, September 17, 2003), and section E, “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs,”
therein. DOE defined the present year as 2012 for the analysis.

8.4.2.4 Present Value of Costs
The present value of increased installed costs is the annual installed c ost increase in each year (i.e., the difference between the standards case and the base case), discounted to the present, and summed for the time period that DOE is considering for the installation of computer room air conditioners (i.e., from the earliest effective date of standards, 2012 or 2013, to the year 2041 or 2042).

### 8

- 16 The increase in total installed cost refers to the equipment cost and installation cost associated with the higher efficiency computer room air conditioners purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated annual installed costs as the difference in total installed cost for new equipment purchased each year, multiplied by the shipments in the s tandards case.

8.4.2.5 Present Value of Savings
The present value of operating cost savings is the annual operating cost savings (i.e., the difference between the base case and standards case) discounted to the year 2012, and summed over the period from the effe ctive date of the standard, 2012 or 2013, to the time when the last unit installed in 2041 or 2042 is retired from service (assumed to be 2055 or 2056). Operating cost savings represent decreases in operating costs (including electricity, repair, and
maint enance) associated with the higher efficiency of computer room air conditioners purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total annual operating cost savings is the savings multiplied by the number of computer room air conditioners of each vintage surviving in a particular year. Equipment consumes energy over its entire lifetime, and thus, for units purchased in 2041 or 2042, the PVS includes energy consumed until the last unit is retired from service at the end of 2055 or 2056.

8.5 NES AND NPV RESULTS

The NES spreadsheet model provides estimates of the NES and NPV for various efficiency levels. The inputs to the NES spreadsheet are discussed earlier in sections 7.2.2 (National Energy Savings Inputs) and 7.3.2 (Net Present Value Inputs).

8.5.1 Nati onal Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary

Table 8.5

. 1 summarizes the inputs to the NES spreadsheet model. For each input, a brief description of the da ta source is given.

Table 8.5

. 1 Inputs to the NES Spreadsheet Model
Input Data Description Effective Date of Standard 2012 or 2013 depending on product class. Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model (see chapter 7 , Shipments Analysis).
Base

- Case Effiicencies Distribution of base

- case shipments by efficiency level.
Standards

- Case Efficiencies Distribution of shipments by efficiency level for each standards

case. Standards

- case annual market shares by efficiency level remain constant over time for the base case and each standards case. Annual Energy Consumption Annual weighted

- average values are a function of efficiency level. (Established from the Energy Use Char acterization, chapter 4).
Site

- to

- Source Conversion Site

- to

- source conversion determined from EIA’s AEO2011 for electricity and varies over the analysis period. Below inputs are for Computer Room Air Conditioners only
Total Installed Cost Annual weighted

- average values are a function of efficiency level (see chapter 6 , LifeCycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis).

### 8

- 17 Repair Cost Annualized repair cost for baseline efficiency computer room air conditioners based on cost data from RS Means CostW orks 201 2

. DOE assumed that the materials portion of the repair costs would vary in direct proportion with the MSP at higher efficiency levels (see chapter 6 ).
Maintenance Cost Annual maintenance costs were $ 298 based on data on annual maintenance costs for computer room air conditioners based on RS Means CostWorks 201 2 (see chapter 6 ). Annual maintenance cost did not vary as a function of efficiency. Escalation of Electricity Prices 2011 EIA Annual Energy Outlo ok forecasts (to 2035) with extrapolation for beyond 2035.
Discount Rate 3 and 7 percent real.
Present Year Future costs are discounted to year 2012.



### 8.5.2 National Energy Savings Results
The following section provides NES results for each efficiency level considered for the equipment analyzed. The results are cumulative to 2041, 2042, or 2043, depending on product class and are shown as primary energy savings in quads. Inputs to the NES sp readsheet model are based on weighted

- average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values as in the lifecycle cost (LCC) analysis.

8.5.2.1 Water

- cooled and Evaporatively

- c ooled Products

Table 8.5.2 and Table 8.5.3 at considered standard levels for the eight product classes of

water

- cooled and evaporatively

- cooled equipment examined. Results of the NES analysis are provided for the two shipment case scenarios, Historical Trends and Fixed to 2009. Recall that all levels higher than the ASHRAE s tandard are shown as net of ASHRAE savings.

Table 8.5

. 2 National Energy Savings for Water

- C ooled and Evaporatively

- C ooled
Products: Based on Historical Trends (Quads, 2013

– 2042 or 2014

- 2043)

Efficiency
LevelWater-cooled,≥65 and<135 kBtu/h, ElectricResistance/No HeatingWater-cooled,≥65 and<135 kBtu/h, OtherHeatingWater-cooled,≥135 and<240 kBtu/h, ElectricResistance/No HeatingWater-cooled,≥135 and<240 kBtu/h, OtherHeatingWater-cooled,≥240 and<760 kBtu/h, ElectricResistance/No HeatingWater-cooled,≥240 and<760 kBtu/h, OtherHeatingEvap-cooled,≥240 and<760 kBtu/h, ElectricResistance/No HeatingEvap-cooled,≥240 and<760 kBtu/h, OtherHeating

ASHRAE Standard 0.000005 0.0000005 0.0001 0.00001 0.0002 0.002 0.0001 0.001

13/12.5 EER 0.00002 0.000002 0.00002 0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.00008 0.001
14 EER 0.00004 0.000005 0.00013 0.00002 0.0005 0.005

- - 15 EER 0.00007 0.000009 0.00024 0.00003

- - - - Max Tech 0.00012 0.000014 0.00039 0.00005 0.0008 0.008 0.00017 0.002

### 8

- 18 Table 8.5

. 3 National Energy Savings for Water

- C ooled and Evaporatively

- C ooled Products: Shipments Fixed to 2009 (Quads, 2013

– 2042 or 2014

- 2043 )

Efficiency
LevelWater-cooled,≥65 and<135 kBtu/h, ElectricResistance/No HeatingWater-cooled,≥65 and<135 kBtu/h, OtherHeatingWater-cooled,≥135 and<240 kBtu/h, ElectricResistance/No HeatingWater-cooled,≥135 and<240 kBtu/h, OtherHeatingWater-cooled,≥240 and<760 kBtu/h, ElectricResistance/No HeatingWater-cooled,≥240 and<760 kBtu/h, OtherHeatingEvap-cooled,≥240 and<760 kBtu/h, ElectricResistance/No HeatingEvap-cooled,≥240 and<760 kBtu/h, OtherHeating

ASHRAE Standard 0.000011 0.0000013 0.0003 0.00003 0.0001 0.001 0.0001 0.001

13/12.5 EER 0.00006 0.000008 0.00008 0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.00005 0.001
14 EER 0.00014 0.000017 0.00032 0.00004 0.0003 0.003

- - 15 EER 0.00024 0.000028 0.00056 0.00007

- - - - Max Tech 0.00039 0.000044 0.00089 0.00010 0.0005 0.005 0.00011 0.001



### 8.5.2.2 VRF Water

- s ource Heat Pumps

Table 8.5

. 4 summarize s the NES at considered standard levels for the two VRF water

source heat pump product classes examined

. Recall that all levels higher than the ASHRAE standard are shown as net of AS HRAE savings.

Table 8.5

. 4 National Energy Savings for VRF Water

- S ource Heat Pumps >135,000 Btu/h (Quads, 2013

- 2042)

Efficiency Level ≥135 and <760 kBtu/h Without Heat Recovery ≥135 and <760 kBtu/h
With Heat Recovery Level 1

– ASHRAE

– 10.0/9.8 EER

- - Level 2

– 11 EER 0.000 9 0.000 8
Level 3

– 12 EER 0.01 74 0.00 83
Level 4

– 13 EER 0.0 416 0.01 95
Level 5

– “Max

- Tech”

– 14.5 EER 0.0 761 0.03 58 * The potential energy savings for efficiency levels more stringent than those specified by ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2010 were calculated relative to the efficiency levels that would result if ASHRAE Standard
90.1

- 2010 standards were adopted.



### 8.5.2.3 Computer Room Ai r Conditioners

Table 8.5

. 5 summarize s the NES at considered standard levels for the 15 computer room air conditioner product classes examined

. Recall that all levels higher than the ASHRAE standard are based on ASHRAE as the baseline

.

### 8

- 19 Table 8.5

. 5 National Energy Savings for Computer Room Air Conditioners ( Quads,
2012

- 2041 or 2013

- 2042)

Equipment Class ASHRAE
Level Efficiency
Level 1 Efficiency
Level 2 Efficiency
Level 3 Efficiency Level 4
Air

- cooled, <65, kBtu/h 0.00018 0.0006 0.0021 0.0052 0.0086
Air

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h

- 0.006 0.059 0.196 0.364
Air

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h

- 0.004 0.034 0.112 0.206
Water

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h 0.00003 0.0001 0.0003 0.0007 0.0010
Water

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h 0.0009 0.0088 0.0246 0.0435 0.0634
Water

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h 0.0008 0.0079 0.0220 0.0388 0.0565
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h 0.00001 0.00004 0.00011 0.00021 0.00031
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h 0.0004 0.0038 0.0106 0.0188 0.0273
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h 0.0002 0.0016 0.0043 0.0076 0.0111 Glycol

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h 0.00003 0.00013 0.00033 0.00063 0.00092 Glycol

- cooled, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h 0.001 0.011 0.031 0.054 0.078 Glycol

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h 0.0008 0.0080 0.0220 0.0384 0.0554 Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h 0.00002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0005 0.0007 Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h 0.001 0.010 0.027 0.047 0.067 Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h 0.0005 0.0054 0.0147 0.0257 0.0370 * All energy savings from efficiency levels higher than the ASHRAE standard are calculated with ASHRAE levels as a baseline.



### 8.5.3 Annual Costs and Savings
As a prelude to providing the NPVs for each efficiency level in each equipment class, this section presents the annual equipment cost (or total installed cost) increases and annual operating cost savings at the national level.

Figure 8.5

. 1 shows the changes over time of the non

- discounted annual equipment price increases and the non

- discounted operating cost savings for efficiency level 1 for the small air

cooled equipment clas s , as an example . The total net annual impact is the discounted value of the difference between annual equipment purchases and annual operating costs at a 7

- percent discount rate. The annual equipment price change is the increase in equipment price for

### 8

- 20 equ ipment purchased each year over the 30

- year period from 2012 or 2013 to 2041 or 2042. The annual operating savings is the savings in operating costs for equipment purchased, and which
has not been retired, for each year over the time period from 2012 or 20 13 to 2055 or 2056. The NPV (the discounted total net annual impact) is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted savings and the cumulative annual discounted costs.

Figure 8.5

. 1 National Annu al Costs and Savings for Efficiency Level 1 (Small Air

- Cooled Computer Room Air Conditioners)

Figure 8.5

. 1 shows smaller annual operating cost savings compared to the increased equipment price costs through 2024 , after which annual operating cost savings begin to eclipse increased equipment price costs . After 2041, no additional computer room air conditioner sales are included in the analysis; however the annual energy savings continues to accrue until the last of the computer room air conditioners installed in 2041 are removed from the stock after 2055.

8.5.4 Net Present Value Results
DOE developed NPV results for the efficiency levels considered for 15 computer room air conditioner equipment classes. Results are cumulative and are shown as the discounted value of these savings in dollar terms. The input s to the NES spreadsheet model are based on - $0.0080 - $0.0060 - $0.0040 - $0.0020 $0.0000 $0.0020 $0.0040 $0.0060

2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052Billion 2011$ 

# Net Savings

Undiscounted Total Annual Operating Savings

Annual Total Incremental Equip. Cost

Discounted Total Net Annual Impact

### 8

- 21 weighted

- average values yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values as in the LCC analysis. The present value of increased total installed costs is the total installed co st increase (i.e., the difference between the standards case and base case), discounted to 2012, and summed over the time period in which DOE evaluates the impact of standards (i.e., from the effective date of the standards, 2012 or 2013, to the year 20 41 or 20 42 ).

Savings are decreases in operating costs (including fuel costs, repair, and maintenance) associated with the higher energy efficiency of computer room air conditioners purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total operating co st savings are the average savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage (i.e., the year of manufacture) surviving in a particular year. Computer room air conditioner equipment consumes energy and must be maintained over its entire lif etime. For units purchased in 2041 or 2042, the operating cost includes energy consumed and maintenance and repair costs incurred until the last unit is retired from service in 2055 or 2056.

As an example, Figure 8.5

. 2 shows the NPV and NES results for the four efficiency levels analyzed for the small air

- cooled equipment class, with NPVs calculated using a 7

- percent discount rate. Both NES and NPV are calculated as benefits of the analyzed standard levels compared with adoption of the ASHRAE 90.1

- 2010 standard level.

Figure 8.5

. 2 Cumulative NES and NPV Result s for Small Air

- C ooled Computer Room
Air Conditioners Based on a Seven

- Percent Discount Rate $(0.018) $(0.016) $(0.014) $(0.012) $(0.010) $(0.008) $(0.006) $(0.004) $(0.002) $

- $0.002

0.0000 0.0010 0.0020 0.0030 0.0040 0.0050 0.0060 0.0070 0.0080 0.0090 0.0100

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Max TechNPV (Billioin 2011$)Cumulative Energy Savings (Quads)

Efficiency Level 

# Air

- Cooled <65 kBtu/h

Energy Savings NPV

### 8

- 22 Table 8.5

. 6 shows the NPV results for the efficiency levels considered for computer room air conditioner equipment based on a 7

- percent discount rate. Table 8.5

. 7 provides the NP V results based on the 3

- percent discount rate.

Table 8.5

. 6 Summary of Cumulative Net Present Value for Computer Room Air
Conditioners (Seven Percent Discount Rate )

Equipment Class Net Present Value (Billion 201 1 $) Efficiency

Level 1 Efficiency
Level 2 Efficiency
Level 3 Efficiency
Level 4
Air

- cooled, <65, kBtu/h $ 0.0004 $ (0.0000) $ (0.0048) $ (0.0154)
Air

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ 0.01 $ 0.12 $ 0.34 $ 0.54
Air

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 0.01 $ 0.08 $ 0.24 $ 0.40

Water

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h $ 0.001 $ 0.003 $ 0.006 $ 0.009

Water

- cooled, ≥65and < 240 kBtu/h $ (0.004) $ (0.041) $ (0.140) $ (0.332)
Water

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ (0.001) $ (0.026) $ (0.102) $ (0.251)
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h $ 0.001 $ 0.002 $ 0.003 $ 0.005
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ (0.02) $ (0.07) $ (0.18) $ (0.38)
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ (0.005) $ (0.024) $ (0.064) $ (0.134) Glycol

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h $ 0.001 $ 0.003 $ 0.006 $ 0.008 Glycol

- cooled, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h $ 0.002 $ (0.028) $ (0.123) $ (0.316) Glycol

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 0.002 $ (0.018) $ (0.083) $ (0.215) Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h $ 0.001 $ 0.003 $ 0.006 $ 0.008 Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h $ (0.01) $ (0.07) $ (0.20) $ (0.46) Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ (0.004) $ (0.033) $ (0.106) $ (0.242) 

### * Numbers in parentheses indicate negative NPV.

Table 8.5

. 7 Summary of Cumulative Net Present Value for Computer Room Air
Conditioners (Three Percent Discount Rate )

Equipment Class Net Present Value (Billion 201 1 $) Efficiency

Level 1 Efficiency
Level 2 Efficienc y Level 3 Efficiency Level 4
Air

- cooled, <65, kBtu/h $ 0.002 $ 0.003 $ (0.002) $ (0.017)
Air

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ 0.03 $ 0.29 $ 0.88 $ 1.48
Air

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 0.02 $ 0.19 $ 0.58 $ 1.00

Water

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h $ 0.003 $ 0.007 $ 0.012 $ 0.018
Water

- cooled, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ 0.003 $ (0.051) $ (0.220) $ (0.566)

Water

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 0.007 $ (0.029) $ (0.160) $ (0.435)

### 8

- 23 Equipment Class Net Present Value (Billion 201 1 $) Efficiency

Level 1 Efficiency
Level 2 Efficienc y Level 3 Efficiency Level 4
Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h $ 0.001 $ 0.004 $ 0.006 $ 0.009

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65and <240 kBtu/h $ (0.02) $ (0.12) $ (0.33) $ (0.69)

Water

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ (0.008) $ (0.042) $ (0.117) $ (0.251) Glycol

- cooled, <65 kBtu/h $ 0.003 $ 0.006 $ 0.012 $ 0.017 Glycol

- cooled, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h $ 0.02 $ (0.02) $ (0.18) $ (0.53) Glycol

- cooled, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ 0.01 $ (0.02) $ (0.13) $ (0.38) Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, <65 kBtu/h $ 0.002 $ 0.006 $ 0.011 $ 0.015 Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥65 and <240 kBtu/h $ (0.01) $ (0.10) $ (0.34) $ (0.82) Glycol

- cooled with fluid economizers, ≥240 and <760 kBtu/h $ (0.004) $ (0.052) $ (0.187) $ (0.447) 

### * Numbers in parentheses indicate negative NPV.

### 8

- 24 REFERENCES

1

. U.S. Department of Energy, Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Efficiency Standards for Commercial Heating, Air

- Conditioning, and Water Heating Equipment Including Packaged Terminal

Air

- Conditioner s and Packaged Terminal Heat Pumps, Small Commercial Packaged Boiler, Three

- Phase Air

- Conditioners and Heat Pumps <65,000 Btu/h, and Single

Package Vertical Air Conditioners and Single

- Package Vertical Heat Pumps < 65,000

Btu/h , March 2006. Washington, DC.

2

. California Public Utility Commission 2008. Database for Energy Efficient Resources. (Last accessed April 20, 2011.) < www.deeresources.com >

3

. 2011 ASHRAE Handbook HVAC Application s . ASHRAE, 2011. Atlanta GA (Available at www.ashrae.org).

4

. U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration. 201 0 . Annual Energy Outlook 201 0 . DOE/EIA0383(201 0 ), DOE/EIA, Washington, D.C.

5

. U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration. 2011. Annual Energy Outlook 2011. DOE/EIA0383(2011), DOE/EIA, Washington, D.C.