10C-i

APPENDIX 10C. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE 

USING ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10C.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................10C-1

10C.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO ....................10C-2

10C.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO .....................10C-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10C.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic 

Growth Scenario ........................................................................................10C-2

Table 10C.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic 

Growth Scenario ........................................................................................10C-3

Table 10C.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario ........................................................................................10C-3

Table 10C.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario ........................................................................................10C-3

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 10C.1.1 Housing Starts Forecast Under Alternative AEO2011 Economic 

Growth Scenarios.......................................................................................10C-1

Figure 10C.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price Forecasts under Alternative 

AEO2011 Economic Growth Scenarios ....................................................10C-2
10C-1

APPENDIX 10C. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE 

USING ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS

10C.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) 

results using inputs from alternative economic growth scenarios. The scenarios use the energy 

price and housing starts forecasts in the High Economic Growth case and the Low Economic 

Growth case from EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO 2011).

1

Figure 10C.1.1 and Figure 10C.1.2 show the forecasts for housing starts and residential 

electricity prices under the different economic growth scenarios. AEO2011 provides a forecast to 

2035. To estimate the trend after 2035, DOE followed guidelines that the EIA had provided to 

the Federal Energy Management Program, which called for using the average rate of change for 

electricity during 2020–2035.

Figure 10C.1.1 Housing Starts Forecast Under Alternative 

AEO2011 Economic Growth Scenarios

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2008 2018 2028

Housing Starts (millions)

Reference

High

Low
10C-2

Figure 10C.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price Forecasts 

under Alternative AEO2011 Economic Growth 

Scenarios

10C.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10C.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, National Water 

Savings in Trillion Gallons, High Economic Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination NES NWS

Standard Compact quads trillion gal

1 1 1 0.02 0.02

2 2 1 0.07 0.16

3 4 2 1.02 0.61

4 5 2 1.74 1.87

28.00

29.00

30.00

31.00

32.00

33.00

34.00

35.00

2008 2018 2028

Electricity Prices (2010$/MMBtu)

Reference

High

Low
10C-3

Table 10C.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic 

Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Standard Compact billion 

2010$

billion 

2010$

1 1 1 0.14 0.04

2 2 1 0.53 0.10

3 4 2 7.60 2.30

4 5 2 19.90 6.67

10C.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10C.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic Growth 

Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination NES NWS

Standard Compact quads trillion gal

1 1 1 0.02 0.01

2 2 1 0.06 0.13

3 4 2 0.85 0.51

4 5 2 1.44 1.55

Table 10C.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Standard Compact billion 

2010$

billion 

2010$

1 1 1 0.10 0.03

2 2 1 0.38 0.06

3 4 2 5.44 1.64

4 5 2 14.98 5.10
10C-4

REFERENCES

 

1

 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 with Projections to 2035,

2011. Washington, DC. Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383(2011). 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/index.cfm