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Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308

Technical Report

NREL/TP-5400-73380

April 2019

Jamaica Transportation Greenhouse 

Gas Reduction Plan

Caley Johnson, Sam Koebrich, and Mark Singer

National Renewable Energy Laboratory
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy

Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

15013 Denver West Parkway

Golden, CO 80401

303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov

Technical Report

NREL/TP-5400-73380

April 2019

Jamaica Transportation Greenhouse 

Gas Reduction Plan

Caley Johnson, Sam Koebrich, and Mark Singer

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Suggested Citation

Johnson, Caley, Sam Koebrich, and Mark Singer. 2019. Jamaica Transportation Greenhouse 

Gas Reduction Plan. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. 

NREL/TP-5400-73380. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73380.pdf. 
NOTICE

This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable 

Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding 

provided by the U.S. Department of State. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the 

DOE or the U.S. Government.

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable 

Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 

and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available 

free via www.OSTI.gov.

Cover Photos by Dennis Schroeder: (clockwise, left to right) NREL 51934, NREL 45897, NREL 42160, NREL 45891, NREL 48097, 

NREL 46526.

NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content.
iii

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Gerald Lindo of the United States Agency for International 

Development for his guidance throughout this project. They would also like to thank the 

following people for sharing their insight and offering guidance and valuable data: Raymond 

Bynes (All Island United Route Taxi Association); Ludlow Powell (Island Traffic Authority); 

André Williams (Jamaica Customs Agency); Selena Mohammed-Wilson and Carla Barrett 

(Jamaican Urban Transit Company); Shauna Trowers (Ministry of Finance); Betsy Bandy, 

Horace Buckley, and Dwight Lewis (Ministry of Science Energy and Technology); Paula Brown 

(Ministry of Transport and Mining); Aisha Jones (National Commission on Science and 

Technology); Michael Saunderson (National Works Agency); and Heather Pinnock (Urban 

Development Corporation). This report has benefitted greatly from these people’s help, but any 

mistakes are entirely the authors’ responsibility.
iv

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List of Acronyms

B5 5% biodiesel / 95% diesel

B20 20% biodiesel / 80% diesel

BAU business as usual

BNEF Bloomberg New Energy Finance 

CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent

E10 10% ethanol / 90% gasoline

e-bus electric bus

EV electric vehicle

GDP gross domestic product

GHG greenhouse gas

GOJ Government of Jamaica

HDV heavy-duty vehicle

HEV hybrid electric vehicle

INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

IR idle reduction

kg kilogram

km kilometer

L liter

LDV light-duty vehicle

MDV medium-duty vehicles

SUV Sport Utility Vehicle

TMT thousand metric tons

UCO used cooking oil

VKT vehicle kilometers traveled
v

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Table of Contents

List of Acronyms........................................................................................................................................ iv

List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ vi

List of Tables .............................................................................................................................................. vi

1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 1

2 Data Collection...................................................................................................................................... 2

2.1 On-Road Transportation Fuel Use ................................................................................................ 2

2.2 Stock of Motorized Road Vehicles ............................................................................................... 3

2.3 Per-Capita Vehicle Kilometers Travelled ..................................................................................... 5

3 Business-as-Usual Projection............................................................................................................. 6

4 Charting GHG Reductions with Wedge Analysis.............................................................................. 8

5 Policies and Projects to Reduce GHGs............................................................................................ 13

5.1 Project Prioritization ................................................................................................................... 13

5.2 Set Vehicle Taxes and Import Duty based on GHG Emissions.................................................. 13

5.3 Catalyze B5 Market..................................................................................................................... 16

5.4 Allow EVs Free Access to Toll Roads........................................................................................ 17

5.5 Limit HDV Idle Time with the Help of IR Technologies........................................................... 17

5.6 Develop a Parking Management Program for Kingston that Focuses on Reducing VKT.......... 19

5.7 Coordinate Route Taxis to Enable Higher-Capacity Vehicles.................................................... 20

5.8 Track Buses and Show Live Transit Updates in Google Maps................................................... 21

5.9 Provide Pedestrians and Cyclists with Safety Reflectors and Lights.......................................... 23

5.10 Lower-Priority Policies and Projects........................................................................................... 23

6 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 26

7 References .......................................................................................................................................... 27

Appendix A. 2050 Wedge Analysis................................................................................................... 34

Appendix B. Supplemental Wedge Model Details........................................................................... 38

Appendix C. Estimates of Potential Biodiesel Produced from Used 

Cooking Oil and Waste Grease...................................................................................... 40
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List of Figures

Figure 1. Jamaican on-road petroleum consumption by year ....................................................................... 3

Figure 2. Jamaican vehicle imports by type, 2016−2017 ............................................................................. 4

Figure 3. VKT of motorized passenger travel and per-capita GDP for 22 developed countries .................. 6

Figure 4. Jamaica on-road GHG emissions, BAU scenario.......................................................................... 7

Figure 5. Reduction wedges to meet Jamaica’s 10% below BAU by 2030 goal.......................................... 9

Figure 6. Number of Jamaicans by usual mode of transportation in Jamaica............................................. 10

Figure 7. U.S. city and highway drive cycles ............................................................................................. 11

Figure 8. GHG emissions benefits of electric vehicles in Jamaica ............................................................. 12

Figure 9. Sign marking “no idling zone” with number to report infractions.............................................. 18

Figure 10. Smart phone screen shot displaying live transit updates on Google Maps................................ 22

Figure A1. Reduction wedges to reduce Jamaica’s transport emissions 80% below BAU by 2050 .......... 34

List of Tables

Table 1. 2016–2017 Jamaican On-Road Vehicle Imports by Fuel Type ...................................................... 4

Table 2. Key Inputs and Outputs of the Iterative Model Determining VKT per Capita............................... 5

Table 3. Subgoals, Their Predicted GHG Reduction, and Percent Contribution to Overall Goals............... 8

Table 4. Policies and Projects to Reduce GHG Emissions from Ground Transportation in Jamaica......... 15

Table 5. Fuel Economy Examples for High-Capacity Route Taxis in L/100 passenger-km...................... 21

Table A1. Subgoals, Their Predicted GHG Reduction, and Percent Contribution to Overall 2050 Goals. 35
1

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1 Introduction

The Nationally Determined Contribution Leadership Compact aims to strengthen countries’ 

nationally determined contributions through the technical assessment of policy options to enable 

them to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In particular, the objective of this 

assessment of transportation options is to assist the Government of Jamaican (GOJ) as it 

develops a revised, resilient National Transport Policy. This policy, among other activities, will 

address transportation’s role in meeting Jamaica’s GHG reduction goals.

This report aims to inform the revised National Transport Policy so that it aligns with Jamaica’s 

overall GHG reduction targets and enables the road transportation sector to contribute toward 

these targets. First, this report highlights metrics that are key to understanding a national 

transportation system and its potential for GHG reductions. Second, this report develops a 

business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for where Jamaica’s GHG emissions are headed into 2030. 

Third, it analyzes ways for the land transportation sector to meet Jamaica’s goal of 10% below 

BAU by 2030 (United Nations 2015). Finally, it assesses projects that can achieve Jamaica’s 

GHG reduction goal and ranks them by cost, size of GHG reduction, timeframe, and ancillary 

benefits.

This report focuses on road transportation for two main reasons. First, the Jamaican government 

claims full responsibility for road emissions in accordance with international GHG accounting 

standards whereas most air and marine emissions are international and therefore are shared 

among multiple countries. Second, there are many more feasible options for reducing emissions 

from road transportation than for air or marine transportation. 
2

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2 Data Collection

Three of the most important pieces of information when reducing GHG emissions from a 

country’s transport system are the quantity of fuel used, the vehicles that used that fuel, and the 

kilometers (km) that those vehicles travelled. These three pillars can be used to derive secondary 

information that helps determine the best way to limit GHG emissions. This section describes 

these values for Jamaica, where they were obtained, the processes by which proxy data were 

developed for items that Jamaica does not track, and recommendations for how to track and store 

data in the future.

2.1 On-Road Transportation Fuel Use 

The Ministry of Science, Energy and Technology keeps good records of gasoline and diesel 

consumption and posts them on its website (Ministry of Science, Energy and Transportation 

2018). The data cover 2004 to 2016 and are broken down both by product and activity. We 

brought the two datasets into agreement by assuming that all gasoline and gasoline with 10% 

ethanol (E10) went to road transportation and that the product “auto diesel” was used in both 

road and off-road transportation. The portion of the “auto diesel” (in the product-oriented list) 

devoted to road transport was the difference between the quantity listed as “petroleum 

consumption by road and rail transportation” (in the activity-oriented list) and the quantity of 

gasoline (in the product-oriented list). This passed data checks, including a gasoline/diesel ratio 

similar to that seen in other countries. One flaw found in the product-oriented data is that we 

believe it double counts the gasoline and E10 during the three-year transition from the former 

dataset to the latter one (2008−2010). We believe this because the total gasoline used for 

2009−2010 were major outliers. Therefore, this error was corrected in our dataset (Figure 1) by 

eliminating the double counting.
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Figure 1. Jamaican on-road petroleum consumption by year

2.2 Stock of Motorized Road Vehicles

Jamaica does not have an electronic database of currently registered vehicles. The Tax 

Administration of Jamaica has a record of all vehicles that were imported but keeps no record of 

vehicle retirements, and hence there is no record of current vehicle rolling stock. The Island 

Traffic Authority issues vehicle fitness certificates, but these are currently done only in hardcopy and are consequently inaccessible. 

Therefore, we derived a list of vehicle rolling stock and began our stock analysis by identifying 

automotive imports by vehicle type in the following way. First, customs data were used to create 

a database of vehicle imports for 2016−2017 to serve as a snapshot of recent vehicle purchases in 

Jamaica. Vehicles in this database were then categorized according to definitions laid out by the 

U.S. Federal Highway Administration (Alternative Fuels Data Center 2014) and the U.S. 

Department of Energy’s fuel economy database (U.S. Department of Energy 2019). Figure 2 

shows the relative quantities of imports for each vehicle category, and Table 1 displays the 

percent of light-duty vehicles (LDVs), medium-duty vehicles (MDVs), and heavy-duty vehicles 

(HDVs) by fuel type. Some 1,309 hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in the import data were 

allocated to their respective fuel type (gasoline or diesel). The most prevalent fuels in the “other” 

category were liquid petroleum gas (65 vehicles) and all-electric vehicles (44). From the import 

data, we were also able to determine that the average vehicle age when imported to Jamaica was 

3.6 years. 

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million Liters

Jamaican On-Road Petroleum Consumption

Gasoline Use Diesel Use
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Table 1. 2016–2017 Jamaican On-Road Vehicle Imports by Fuel Type

Gasoline Diesel Other

LDV 91% 9% 0.2%

MDV/HDV 9% 90% 0.8%

All Vehicles 88% 12% 0.2%

Figure 2. Jamaican vehicle imports by type, 2016−2017

To derive the approximate total vehicle stock, we began with data tracked by the World Bank

(World Bank 2013) describing the number of vehicles per thousand people (tracked for 

2005−2010, except for 2007). There was no significant annual growth trend in the data. 

Therefore, we took the median across all available years, resulting in 187.5 vehicles (including 

buses and freight) per 1,000 people. This is in agreement with 2011 Census data that show 

18.5% of those 15 years of age and older travel primarily by private vehicle (Statistical Institute 

of Jamaica 2011). This 18.8% figure is multiplied by the 2016 population of Jamaica, equating to 

a vehicle stock of 540,325 without motorcycles (since the World Bank did not count motorcycles 

in its statistic), or 580,994 when the motorcycle population is added in (assuming motorcycles 

are 7% of stock since they are 7% of imports). 

To check this derived vehicle stock number, we need to compare the vehicle stock with annual 

imports to ensure that it results in a realistic vehicle age of retirement. Dividing 580,994 vehicles

by a purchase rate of 52,046 vehicles per year indicates that vehicles are kept for 11.2 years. The 

Jamaican import data indicate that the average vehicle gets imported when it is 3.6 years old. 

69%

9%

7%

6%

6%

2%

1%

>1%

>1%

Jamaica Vehicle Imports by Type, 2016-2017

Car

SUV

Motorcycle

Van

LD Truck

Bus

MD Truck

Semi Truck

HD Truck
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This means that vehicles are being retired an average of 14.8 years after the original purchase. 

This is quite close to the average retirement age of 16.9 years seen in the United States (Davis et 

al. 2013), which validates the approximate figure calculated for Jamaica.

2.3 Per-Capita Vehicle Kilometers Travelled

Vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT) is not tracked in Jamaica so it needs to be extrapolated from 

Jamaica’s fuel consumption and data from similar countries. This was done through an iterative 

process using Microsoft Excel’s Goal Seek, as shown in Table 2 and described below:

1. Total VKT was first estimated based on total fuel consumption and estimated fuel 

efficiency. The gasoline and diesel consumption (as reported in Section 2.1) are 

reproduced in the “Combined” row for the “Gasoline Consumed,” “Diesel Consumed,” 

and “Total Petroleum Consumed” columns in Table 2. These fuel volumes were allocated 

to LDVs and HDVs (filling in the two rows above the Combined total) based on the ratio 

of vehicle imports. The fuel economy of LDVs was taken as the 2008 average for vehicle 

purchases in non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries

(International Energy Agency 2017), and fuel economy for MDVs and HDVs was based 

on the most numerous vehicles in the vehicle import data. The VKT of the MDV/HDV 

vehicle category was originally set as 23% of total VKT, based on the ratio seen in New 

Zealand (New Zealand Ministry of Transport 2018), one of the few other insular 

mountainous countries with such data available.

2. With the model thus set, Goal Seek was then used iteratively to bring VKT and petroleum 

consumption numbers into agreement. First, the VKT per capita was calculated so that 

the total petroleum consumed would equal the known 1,011 million L. When the total 

petroleum balanced but the diesel and gasoline amounts were off, Goal Seek minimized 

these deviations by adjusting the ratio between the VKT seen in LDVs and the VKT seen 

in MDVs/HDVs. The optimal ratio was 14% of all VKT being MDV/HDVs, which is 

acceptable because it is in between the metric reported for the United States (10%) (U.S. 

Department of Transportation 2018) and New Zealand (23%). The first step was then 

repeated, which brought the LDV VKT per capita to 2,887 in order to match total 

petroleum consumption of 1,011 million L. This VKT estimate fits well with other 

countries with a similar per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), as described by Ecola 

et al. (2014) and elaborated in the next section. Finally, Goal Seek was used to decrease 

the fuel economy of LDVs slightly to 9 L/100 km so that the quantity of gasoline 

consumed balanced the amount the vehicles demanded. 

Table 2. Key Inputs and Outputs of the Iterative Model Determining VKT per Capita

Vehicle 

Category

VKT 

per 

capita

Population 

(2016)

Fuel 

Economy 

(L/100 km)

Gasoline 

Consumed 

(million L)

Diesel 

Consumed 

(million L)

Total 

Petroleum 

Consumed 

(million L)

LDV 2,887 2,881,355 9.0 685 66 750

MDV/HDV 471 2,881,355 19.2 24 236 260

Combined 3,357 2,881,355 10.4 709 302 1,011
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3 Business-as-Usual Projection

To incorporate transportation GHG emissions in Jamaica’s 2030 GHG reduction goal, a BAU 

scenario needs to be created. To do so, we assume that fuel economy remains constant, and 

therefore, fuel use is driven by increases in VKT. Historically, the period of greatest growth in 

VKT, and consequently land transportation fuel use, is when a country’s per-capita GDP (in

1990 International Dollars1) is between $5,000 and $20,000 USD (Ecola et al. 2014). In other 

words, this is the range where VKT growth is on the steep part of the S-curve (see Figure 3). 

Jamaica’s per-capita GDP is currently in the low end of this range. Therefore, it is better to base 

projections on what other countries have done throughout this phase rather than Jamaica’s

previous transportation fuel consumption.

Ecola et al. (2014) found that personal VKT is most closely tied to per-capita GDP in 

international dollars. This relationship is shown in Figure 3, with the differences between 

countries being largely due to spatial dispersion of the population, car infrastructure, fuel prices, 

and availability of alternatives to driving. Please note that Figure 3 reflects personal VKT and 

omits freight and deliveries. Furthermore, Figure 3 is presented in 1990 International Dollars to 

be compatible with the Ecola et al. (2014) analysis.

Figure 3. VKT of motorized passenger travel and per-capita GDP for 22 developed countries

Source: Based on data provided by the RAND Corporation and the Institute for Mobility Research collected as a part 

of the 2014 study (Ecola et al. 2014). Used with permission.

Since land transportation fuel use is most closely tied to VKT and VKT is most closely tied to 

per-capita GDP in international dollars (Ecola et al. 2014), a projection of Jamaica’s per-capita 

 1 International Dollars, also known as Geary-Khamis dollars, are based on purchasing power parity. 1990 

International Dollars are used when comparing to the Ecola et al. (2014) study.
7

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GDP is needed. We used projections from the International Futures model created by the Pardee 

Center of the University of Denver. The model estimates Jamaica’s per-capita GDP growing 

from to $8,400 (in 2011 International Dollars) in 2016 to nearly $10,200 in 2030. Values were 

then converted from 2011 to 1990 International Dollars to be compatible with the data shown in 

Figure 3. Jamaica’s 2016 starting point was then plotted on Figure 3 (in orange) at a per-capita 

GDP of $5,287 and personal VKT of 2,887. This starting point has higher VKT than the other 

now-developed countries, largely because Jamaica has lower fuel prices and more car 

infrastructure than the other countries had at the time (some many decades ago) when they had a 

comparable per-capita GDP. 

Using a simplified version of the process described in Ecola et al. (2014), the spatial dispersion

of the population, car infrastructure, fuel prices, and availability of alternatives to driving were 

taken into account when estimating Jamaica’s 2030 VKT. The result, as plotted on Figure 3, is 

an estimate that Jamaica’s personal per-capita VKT in 2030—when the per-capita GDP is 

estimated to be $6,573––would be 3,300 km per capita per year. When freight VKT are added 

back in at 14% of total VKT, the end result is that total per-capita VKT increase from 3,357 in 

2016 to 3,900 in 2030. This represents an average annual growth rate of 1.1%.

The final step is to take population increase into account. We used projections from the United 

Nations World Population Prospects 2017 (United Nations 2017), which estimated Jamaica’s 

population to increase from 2.88 million in 2016 to 2.93 million in 2030. When combined with 

the per-capita VKT estimates, this indicates that total VKT in Jamaica will increase from 9.7 

billion in 2016 to 11.4 billion in 2030, using a compounded annual growth rate of 1.2% (of 

which only 0.13% is due to population growth alone). This growth rate was applied to Jamaica’s 

petroleum consumption and converted to GHG emissions to form the BAU scenario shown in 

Figure 4.

Figure 4. Jamaica on-road GHG emissions, BAU scenario
8

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4 Charting GHG Reductions with Wedge Analysis

The goal of reducing transportation petroleum use 10% below BAU by 20302 is achievable if 

approached systematically. To do so, we break this overarching goal down into achievable 

subgoals through a “wedge analysis.” The wedge analysis applies the BAU scenario developed 

in Section 3 and cumulatively reduces GHG emissions through subgoals (as shown in Table 3). 

Wedges are shaped as such because the fuel displacement resulting from each strategy grows as 

projects progress. For example, improvements to carpool platforms may initially result in modest 

petroleum displacement but then grow more substantial over time as the number of commuters 

using the platform increases. This analysis tool allows the user to assess the potential of various 

scenarios to achieve a 10% reduction from the BAU and to then formulate a plan of action. A 

scenario of reaching 80% GHG reduction by 2050 is modeled and tested in Appendix A. Model 

details are provided in Appendix B, Supplemental Model Details. A scenario to achieve the 10% 

goal is outlined in Table 3, illustrated in Figure 5, and described in the text below.

Table 3. Subgoals, Their Predicted GHG Reduction, and Percent Contribution to Overall Goals

Subgoal (from 2030 BAU)

Thousand Metric 

Tons (TMT) CO2e 

Reduced

Percent of 

Overall 

Goal

9% reduction in VKT of LDVs through walking, biking, using public 

transit, ridesharing, and telecommuting 206.8 58.6

7% improvement in fuel economy for new LDVs 64.8 18.4

All diesel contains 5% biodiesel 57.9 16.4

Traffic-flow is smoothed so that 1.5% of road kilometers are 

converted from city drive cycle to highway drive cycle 12.9 3.7

HDV idle time reduced 45 minutes per vehicle per day 6.1 1.7

12% of new LDV purchases to be electric 4.5 1.3

CO2e – carbon dioxide equivalent

 2 To match the goals for other sectors, as laid out in Jamaica’s INDC 
9

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Figure 5. Reduction wedges to meet Jamaica’s 10% below BAU by 2030 goal

The subgoals reflected in Figure 5 were chosen because they align with Jamaica’s resources and 

potential. Each subgoal is described below. The related projects to achieve the subgoals are 

introduced in Section 5.

1. Nine percent reduction in VKT of LDVs through walking, biking, using public transit, 

ridesharing, and telecommuting. This subgoal aims to retain and grow Jamaica’s 

substantial ridership in modes other than private vehicles (Figure 6) as GDP per capita 

increases. Most of the GHG reductions from the VKT reduction subgoal will come from 

LDVs rather than MDV/HDVs, as MDV/HDV fleets are already fairly optimized to 

reduce operating costs related to VKT. The VKT reduction wedge is the largest 

contributor towards the 2030 goal and is expected to provide over half of the overall 

petroleum-use reduction needed to achieve it. It should also be noted that most VKTreducing efforts also improve traffic flow and therefore improve vehicle fuel economy-an 

advantage not accounted for in the model. This category achieves over half of the overall 

2030 goal.
10

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Figure 6. Number of Jamaicans by usual mode of transportation in Jamaica

Source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica (2017)

2. Seven percent improvement in fuel economy for new LDVs. This would bring the 

average fuel economy of new LDVs from 9.0 L/100 km (per Table 2) to 8.4 L/100 km in 

2030. This subgoal is deemed realistic because 8.4 L/100 km is slightly less efficient than 

the global average fuel consumption for new cars in 2005 (8.3 L/100 km) and because it 

is much less than the 20% improvement made between 2005 and 2013 in Organization 

for Economic Cooperation and Development markets (Global Fuel Economy Initiative 

2016). Fuel economy improvement projects will provide over 18% of the needed 

petroleum use reduction to meet the 2030 goal. Therefore, this subgoal is the secondlargest contributor to the overall goal.

3. All road transportation diesel contains 5% biodiesel (B5). This amount could likely be 

sourced from domestic waste oil and grease, which has more favorable economics than 

using virgin oils (Mandolesi de Araújo et al. 2013). Our calculations, shown in Appendix 

C, estimate that there is enough used cooking oil (UCO) in Jamaica to supply 30% of B5 

biodiesel needs and more than enough waste grease to supply the rest. UCO requires less 

processing than waste grease so should be utilized first. However, there are some hurdles 

to overcome in developing a collection system for these oils and greases and ensuring a 

quality product that will not harm engines. Some options for overcoming these hurdles 

are discussed in Section 5.3. Meeting the B5 subgoal would account for 16% of the 

overall 2030 GHG reductions. 

4. Smooth traffic flow so that 1.5% of road kilometers, weighted by traffic volume, are 

converted from a city drive cycle to a highway drive cycle. Vehicles require more fuel to 

accelerate than to maintain a constant speed. Efficiency improvements are found when 

stop-and-go traffic patterns are replaced by more consistent speeds. Measures such as off 
11

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ramps, traffic signal coordination, left-turn lanes, bus pull-offs, and throughways improve 

traffic flow and reduce GHG emissions. Such projects have a cumulative impact of 

converting part of a vehicle’s drive cycle from the stop-and-go city drive cycle to the 

smoother highway drive cycle (as shown in Figure 7). The average LDV available for 

sale in the United States is 28% more efficient on the highway drive cycle than the city

(www.fueleconomy.gov). However, this portion of the wedge does not take into account 

a potentially large, but so far unquantified, takeback effect whereby improved drive cycle 

and reduced drive times encourage people to drive more (Litman 2018). The achievement 

of this traffic-flow subgoal would account for 4% of the overall 2030 GHG reduction.

Figure 7. U.S. city and highway drive cycles

The average LDV achieves 28% greater fuel economy on the Highway Drive Cycle (www.fueleconomy.gov)

5. Reduce HDV idle time by 45 minutes per day. When idling, HDVs use about 3.5 liters of 

diesel per hour, and LDVs use about 1.5 (Argonne National Laboratory 2018). This high 

consumption rate is because vehicle engines are not operating within their optimal range 

when idling. Auxiliary loads such as air conditioning or hydraulic lifts only require a 

fraction of the power that is delivered from an idling vehicle engine, so numerous 

technologies can enable these loads to be met with much lower fuel use. Such 

technologies include automatic engine shutoff and startup, storage cooling, auxiliary 

power units, electrified parking spaces, batteries, and driver training (Gaines and 

Weikersheimer 2016. The goal of 45 minutes is assumed to be a reasonable amount of 

idle time to cut, since in the mainland United States, 90% of trucks idle more than 48 

minutes per day (Lutsey et al. 2004). Many cities around the world have successfully 

implemented idle bans that have reduced HDV idle time by more than 1 hour per day

(Argonne National Laboratory 2018). Furthermore, Jamaica is at an advantage since its 
12

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warm temperatures enable easy diesel startup without concerns of fuel gelling. This idle 

reduction (IR) subgoal contributes 2% to the overall 2030 GHG emissions reduction. 

6. Twelve percent of new LDV purchases to be electric by 2030. We believe that this is a 

conservative target for two reasons. First, batteries are the dominant cost of electric 

vehicles (EVs), and these costs are dropping rapidly (Howell et al. 2016). Second, the 

efficacy of EVs as a GHG-mitigating technology largely depends upon the electricity 

mix. Figure 8 compares the carbon emissions of EVs, conventional vehicles, and a Prius 

HEV. The Nissan Versa and Nissan Leaf are the conventional and EV versions of the 

same vehicle model, respectively. Likewise, the Toyota Highlander and Tesla Model X 

are conventional and EV versions of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) of comparable size, 

respectively. Both EVs are lower-emitting than their conventional counterparts even with 

0% renewable electricity. However, this chart also highlights the fact that HEVs such as 

the Toyota Prius have low emissions regardless of the electricity mix. Therefore, the EVpromoting policies and projects highlighted in Section 5.4, such as the toll road access, 

should be inclusive of HEVs, plug-in HEVs, and EVs, and the market can determine 

which is favored at any given time. The wedge analysis assumes that Jamaica meets its

Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) goal of 20% renewable electricity 

production by 2030 (United Nations 2015). The EV subgoal will account for 1.3% of the 

2030 GHG reductions. 

Figure 8. GHG emissions benefits of electric vehicles in Jamaica

Note: The EV emissions lines bend at 65% because at that point renewables start replacing natural gas instead of 

replacing fuel oil.

0

5

10

15

20

25

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

kg CO2e per 100km

Percent Renewable Electricity

GHG Benefits of EVs in Jamaica

Nissan Leaf Tesla Model X Toyota Prius Nissan Versa Toyota Highlander
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5 Policies and Projects to Reduce GHGs

The first step on the path to reducing Jamaica’s road transportation emissions was to calculate 

current emissions and project them to 2030. The next step was to apply Jamaica’s INDC goal of 

10% below 2030 BAU scenario (United Nations 2015) to the transportation sector, down into the 

wedge-based goals listed in Figure 5. The third step is to identify specific policies and projects 

by which to achieve the wedge-based goals. This involved work by various agencies, 

organizations, and companies throughout Jamaica. A number of the projects have already been 

proposed or investigated by the GOJ. The fourth step is to prioritize the projects so that they may 

be pursued and funded in a strategic and systematic manner, as outlined in this section.

5.1 Project Prioritization

The proposed projects were prioritized in Table 4 based on the four factors bulleted below. 

Factors are currently generalized as green for good, yellow for average, and red for bad, but the 

labels could later be quantified into actual numbers. The ratings are all relative: projects with the 

worst ratings in any given category have already been removed from the list. Priority is given to 

the ranking on the left of Table 4, or to the top in the upcoming bulleted list. The four factors, in 

descending order of importance, are as follows: 

• GHG Reduction Size represents the quantity of GHGs that a given project reduces by 

2030. This is deemed the most important factor. 

• Upfront Cost is the next most important factor. We chose to focus on upfront cost instead 

of lifecycle cost because the government can only take on a limited number of projects, 

and this limit is determined by their upfront cost. Many projects pay themselves off and 

are even cost-negative when viewing lifecycle costs. For divisible projects such as 

pedestrian paths or bus route expansion, Table 4 represents the cost of the less-expensive 

projects rather than the cost of all projects. 

• Time Required to Implement considers how quickly the project can begin reducing GHG 

emissions. This rating considers one to two years as low, three to four years as medium, 

and five to 10 years as high. 

• Ancillary Benefits reflects secondary benefits such as cost savings, time savings, 

convenience, safety, healthfulness, and equity associated with a project. These benefits 

usually lead to increased popularity from citizens (voters), which translates to political 

viability.

Future iterations of this plan could quantify the first three factors of this rating system into a 

measurement of metric tons GHG reduced per discounted dollar, where the discounted dollar 

takes the time to implement into account. However, such quantification is beyond the scope of 

the current project.

5.2 Set Vehicle Taxes and Import Duty based on GHG Emissions

Jamaica’s carbon-based fuel taxes (Jamaica Ministry of Finance and the Public Service 2017) are 

a great first incentive for drivers to reduce their GHG emissions. However, there is evidence 

showing that drivers are even more responsive to up-front costs when purchasing vehicles than

they are to lifecycle ownership costs (Sutherland 1991). Therefore, registration fees and import 
14

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tariffs can pair nicely with the fuel taxes to be an effective mechanism by which to incentivize 

the purchase of more efficient vehicles.

Jamaica currently charges three fees on new vehicles: an import duty, the general consumption 

tax, and the special consumption tax. They are all based on a vehicle’s value and therefore their 

primary incentive is for people to purchase less expensive vehicles. The import duty is 20% of 

value for cars, pickups, and SUVs, but only 10% for trucks and vans, thereby creating an 

incentive to purchase trucks and vans instead of smaller (presumably more efficient) cars, 

pickups, and SUVs. Furthermore, it disadvantages EVs by charging an import duty of 30%. The

general consumption tax is the same for all vehicles (16.5% if imported by individuals or 21.5% 

if imported by a dealer). The special consumption tax is less for diesel vehicles than for gasoline 

across the board, providing an incentive to purchase diesel vehicles. The special consumption tax

increases with greater engine size within the car/SUV/pickup category, which incentivizes the 

purchase of more efficient vehicles over a limited range. Furthermore, the special consumption 

tax is 0% for highly efficient hybrids, EVs, and motorcycles.
15

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Table 4. Policies and Projects to Reduce GHG Emissions from Ground Transportation in Jamaica

Category Policy Options / Projects

GHG 

Reduction 

Size

Upfront 

Cost

Time 

Required to 

Implement

Ancillary 

Benefits

Fuel 

Economy

Set vehicle taxes and import duty 

according to GHG emissions High Low Low Med

Biodiesel Catalyze market for B5 from UCO High Low Med High

EV Allow EVs free access to toll roads High Low Low Low

Idle 

Reduction

Idling limitations High Low High Med

VKT 

Reduction

Develop a Parking Management 

Program for Kingston that focuses on 

reducing VKT

High Med Low High

VKT 

Reduction

Coordinate route taxis to enable highercapacity vehicles High Med High High

VKT 

Reduction

Track buses and show live transit 

updates in Google Maps Med Low Low High

VKT 

Reduction

Pedestrian reflectors to improve safety 

at night Med Low Low High

Fuel 

Economy

Fuel economy and fuel cost labeling 

requirements Med Low Low Med

VKT 

Reduction

Safe passing rule for bikers and 

pedestrians Med Low Med High

Traffic 

Flow

Coordinate traffic signals Med Med Low High

VKT 

Reduction

Rumble strips to improve 

pedestrian/biker safety Med Med Med High

EV Install public EV chargers in strategic 

locations Med Med Med Low

Traffic 

Flow

Left-turn lanes at key intersections to 

improve traffic flow Med Med High High

Fuel 

Economy

Motorcycle/scooter safety program Low Med Low Med

Traffic 

Flow

Bus and route taxi pull-offs to improve 

traffic flow Low Med Med High

There are several ways that Jamaica could change its duties and taxes to encourage moreefficient vehicles while holding revenue even. The easiest would be to use the existing vehicle 

categorizations but simply charge higher rates for heavier vehicles or ones with larger engines 

and lower rates for smaller vehicles and engines. Both of these vehicle attributes are positively 

correlated with GHG emissions. Secondly, it could create a new system of categorization that 

more directly targets GHG emissions (which allows for alternative fuels). Numerous countries 

have implemented such registration fees that are based on carbon dioxide emissions or fuel 

consumption that can be emulated (Global Fuel Economy Initiative 2016). The most effective of 
16

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these is the “feebate” (Mims and Hauenstein 2008) systems that actually pay people that register 

the most-efficient vehicles. These systems are particularly successful in part because they are 

politically more feasible. 

• GHG reduction is very large. Based on the success of similar policies in other countries, 

this policy change could easily improve fuel economy by 10%, which would result in a 

reduction of 66 thousand metric tons (TMT) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).

• Upfront cost is considered low because the government already has enforcement and 

collection mechanisms, with supporting staff, in place.

• Time required to implement is considered low because if it is revenue-neutral, the policy 

could likely be updated quickly by the Tax Policy Development division of the Ministry 

of Finance. This is facilitated by the fact that necessary fuel economy data are collected 

and made available by European Union countries, Japan, the United States, and others

(European Commission 2008; Mock 2013). 

• Ancillary benefits are medium, and primarily consist of money savings for the drivers 

and the potential of increased revenues to the GOJ.

5.3 Catalyze B5 Market

Profit may be made from operating a program that collects UCO or waste grease and converting 

it to biodiesel. Therefore, it is recommended that the GOJ take steps to ensure price signals are 

passed to catalyze these viable markets. The first step is to ensure that UCO and waste grease are 

not dumped into sewers, where they do costly damage to water treatment systems and raise

overall water treatment costs by an estimated 25% (Paraiba et al. 2015). This requires a 

restriction on dumping oil and grease into drains or onto the ground, accompanied by adequate 

enforcement. The second step is to encourage vendors that specialize in waste oil and grease 

recycling to implement private collection systems with customers. 

North Carolina does this by posting a contact list of such UCO recycling companies (N.C. 

Department of Environmental Quality 2019). The GOJ could commit to purchasing waste oil at a 

price equal to the cost savings from reducing damage to wastewater treatment facilities to create 

a floor price in the market. However, the UCO has much higher value as a fuel, so the next step 

would be to notify biodiesel producers of the opportunity and hold workshops where potential 

collection companies and biodiesel producers can discuss the logistics of Jamaican markets. 

Many UCO collection companies are already integrated with biodiesel production companies. 

Finally, the GOJ should adopt or develop a biodiesel standard to ensure that the product will not 

damage engines or customer trust in biodiesel. Two standards that are commonly used as a basis 

for new standards are ASTM D975 (used in the United States for diesel with up to 5% biodiesel

[B5]) and EN590 (used in the European Union for blends up to 7%) (Jääskeläinen 2009).

• GHG reduction is very large. Using B5 in place of diesel for all road transportation 

should reduce GHG emissions by 58 TMT per year by 2030.

• Upfront cost is low because the government is simply facilitating the private sector to set 

up a viable market in UCO collection and biodiesel production.
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• Time to implement is considered medium because it could take a few years to get people 

to recycle their UCO, build a biodiesel production facility, and set standards that ensure 

the quality of biodiesel.

• Ancillary benefits are high because this project reduces damage to water treatment 

facilities and creates numerous jobs in the UCO recycling and biodiesel production 

systems. Furthermore, biodiesel improves the lubricity and cetane of diesel fuel, causing 

the engine to operate better and last longer (Alternative Fuels Data Center 2018). 

5.4 Allow EVs Free Access to Toll Roads

Jurisdictions that allow EVs to use high-occupancy vehicle lanes typically see higher rates of EV 

purchases. U.S. states with high-occupancy vehicle lanes and EV exemptions have 15% greater 

EV purchase rates (8% for plug-in HEVs) than those without, even when controlling for 12 other 

factors (Narassimhan and Johnson 2018). It is reasonable that allowing EVs free use of toll roads 

would also act to incentivize EV purchases. This impact could be large in Jamaica since it has

three major toll roads (A1, T1, and Port Kingston Causeway) and a mandate to increase this 

number of toll roads, and the tolls are expensive when compared to the per-capita GDP (Toll 

Authority of Jamaica 2018). 

• The GHG reduction from this policy is considered large. This policy could be the 

dominating driver in achieving the goal of EVs comprising 12% of all LDV sales by 

2030, which would reduce Jamaican GHG emissions by 4.5 TMT. 

• Upfront cost is predicted to be low. The toll authority could likely add this clause to 

existing contracts with vendors, possibly at a cost to GOJ. The cost would likely be low 

given the current low penetration of EVs in Jamaica.

• Time required to implement would be short because no construction is needed, and it 

could likely be implemented by the Toll Authority rather than requiring legislation.

• Ancillary benefits would be low. The only major benefit outside of GHG reduction would 

be air quality improvement and energy independence once a larger share of electricity is 

produced from renewables. This policy would be slightly regressive since EVs tend to be 

more expensive vehicles.

5.5 Limit HDV Idle Time with the Help of IR Technologies

As explained in the wedge analysis section, it is likely that most HDVs in Jamaica idle more than 

45 minutes every day, and they can see substantial cost savings by limiting their idle time. 

Therefore, a five-pronged approach could work well for Jamaica. 

1. Reduce idling in the GOJ fleet to lead by example, test IR technologies, and develop 

expertise to share with other fleet managers.

2. Meet with managers of major county, local, and private fleets to explain the cost benefits 

of IR and the various technologies available that enable their vehicles to perform 

necessary functions while stationary (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2018). The 

Idling Reduction Savings Calculator developed by Argonne National Laboratory (2018)

could facilitate such conversations. Also, introduce fleet managers to upcoming antiidling laws and signage to help convince their drivers to participate.
18

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3. Pass IR laws, drawing from the experience of other governments that have passed such 

laws (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2006).

4. Post signage in key idling areas reminding drivers of idle restrictions and calling on 

fellow citizens to help enforce restrictions to improve air quality (see Figure 9). Schools 

are an important place to post such signs as children are particularly vulnerable to the 

health effects of emissions.

5. Enforce idle restrictions by responding to complaints and patrolling areas with signage.

Figure 9. Sign marking “no idling zone” with number to report infractions

Source: N.J. Department of Environmental Protection (2015)

This five-step strategy ranks well in Table 4, per the following assessment. 

• GHG reduction is estimated to be large, assuming that HDV idle time and fuel 

consumption are similar to their counterparts in the United States. If they are, then 90% 

of HDVs idle more than 45 minutes a day (Lutsey et al. 2004), and they consume an 

average of 3.5 L/hour (Argonne National Laboratory 2018). Assuming these estimates 

are applicable to Jamaica and the goal of 45 minutes/day is achieved, this program is 

estimated to reduce over 6 TMT CO2e. Furthermore, this program is likely to spread to 

LDVs and achieve even greater GHG savings.
19

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• Upfront cost is estimated to be low. IR equipment is generally reasonable, and most fleets 

will pay it off quickly. The most substantial cost will be enforcement, but this cost is 

greatly reduced by persuading citizens to contact authorities when they witness 

violations. Creating a convincing roll-out strategy is vital to ensuring that citizens 

recognize the importance of clean air and the impact IR can have upon air quality. 

• Time required to implement the plan is high because each step is constrained by the steps 

before it. Furthermore, legislative action would be needed. 

• Ancillary benefits are medium. IR reduces local air pollution, which is especially 

beneficial around areas with a high concentration of children (who are particularly 

vulnerable to air pollution) such as schools. Fleets should also see financial benefits due 

to the reduced fuel costs and maintenance costs (Gaines and Weikersheimer 2016).

5.6 Develop a Parking Management Program for Kingston that 

Focuses on Reducing VKT

Parking management programs can be very effective ways to reduce VKT. The most effective 

programs place a price on parking (a valuable commodity), allowing commuters to account for 

the price of parking when deciding how to travel to congested areas. This makes alternatives 

such as ridesharing, bus, biking, and walking much more economically attractive. Furthermore, 

right-priced parking can greatly reduce the VKT spent “cruising” for parking (Shoup 2006). This 

is a substantial benefit, as 16 studies of cruising in urban neighborhoods found an average of 

30% of traffic were cruisers, and their average time spent cruising for parking was more than 8 

minutes (Shoup 2006). By reducing “minimum parking requirements” for developers and 

improving parking utilization rates, cities can develop in a more condensed way that is 

conducive to walking and biking (Litman 2016a). Therefore, the National Environment and 

Planning Agency should consider alternative modes of transportation and possibly adjust the 

minimum parking requirements listed in its Development and Investment Manual (National 

Environment and Planning Agency 2007).

To enable Kingston to reduce its parking in densely populated areas, they can provide strategic 

parking lots in bottlenecks around Kingston where commuter traffic condenses and becomes 

more congested. These strategic parking lots are places where buses and rideshares can quickly 

and frequently pick up many passengers and take them to various destinations in Kingston. 

These lots could initially boost ridership of route taxis, but as they become more popular, they 

will provide a critical mass of passengers for buses to leave more frequently and have a greater 

variety of routes, enabling the bus system to out-compete route taxis in many locations entering 

Kingston. Similar strategic parking lots known as “Park & Rides” have been very successful 

throughout urban areas in the United States. 

• GHG reduction is high. Parking policy has been identified as a highly effective way to 

reduce traffic and VKT (Cairns et al. 2008). Therefore, a sound parking management 

program would have a very large impact on GHG emissions.

• Upfront cost is medium. A parking management program should incur lower costs than 

increasing parking capacity, which is the route that many cities take when their vehicle 

populations increase. Furthermore, substantial revenue can be generated by a parking 

management program that can offset upfront costs. Some of the costs to be incurred are 
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staff and equipment needed for parking enforcement, equipment needed to coordinate 

vehicles to find under-utilized parking spaces, and strategic parking lots (which will 

probably be built in locations with lower property values than unstrategic lots in 

downtown Kingston). Another cost to be considered is the cost of alternatives to parking, 

such as bicycle paths and additional buses.

• Time required to implement is considered short since Kingston is already taking steps 

toward a parking management program (Jamaica Observer April 15, 2015) and because 

new lots can be built incrementally. 

• Ancillary benefits are high. They include better allocation of parking spaces to higherpriority use such as delivery vehicles, short errands, and drivers that carpooled. All 

attributes that reduce VKT also will reduce traffic congestion and accidents. A smart 

parking management program can also greatly reduce building development costs, 

increase the flexibility of land use, and make housing more affordable (Litman 2016b).

5.7 Coordinate Route Taxis to Enable Higher-Capacity Vehicles

Route taxis were the primary means of transportation for 39% of Jamaicans in 2011 (Statistical 

Institute of Jamaica 2011). By driving multiple people along a similar route, these taxis limit the 

number of single-occupancy vehicles on the road, which reduces GHG emissions. The parking 

legislation outlined in Section 5.6 will likely make route taxis more attractive to commuters who 

do not wish to pay for parking in the city. To increase the GHG reductions and ancillary benefits 

of route taxis, steps should be taken to enable them to graduate in size from sedans carrying three 

to four passengers to minivans and full-sized vans that carry up to 15 passengers. Table 5 gives 

an example of the significant fuel reductions implicit with increasing the capacity of route taxis. 

Economic factors are already favoring larger vehicles (since the driver can make much more per 

hour carrying more passengers) so the logistical challenges need to be addressed. Steps to reduce 

these logistical challenges are as follows.

1. Remove the restriction that route taxis cannot have more than 10 seats (Transportation 

Authority 2013).

2. Formalize routes by creating maps and publishing them online so that people will know 

the availability of route taxis near them. Such maps can be crowd-sourced such as the one 

being created for the colectivos in Mexico City (Mapatón 2016). Coordinate with Jamaica 

Urban Transit Company (JUTC) and add routes that help solve their “first and last mile” 

challenge (Mass Transit Magazine August 15, 2016) by linking route taxis between bus 

stops and passengers’ homes.

3. Increase predictability and usability of route taxis by developing a schedule and 

coordinating timing. There is currently a financial incentive for route-taxis to wait until 

they are full before they leave the parking lot. This delays the departure of the route taxi, 

making it much less convenient for those boarding it later in its route. If route taxis were 

required to adhere to a departure schedule, this perverse incentive could be overcome, 

and reliability would be increased. 

4. Identify slots in schedules that can use vehicles with additional capacity and notify 

vehicle owners that these slots will be transitioned to vans and minivans. This would 

likely require a survey of drivers that tracks back to their scheduled departures. 
21

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5. Work with vehicle dealerships to identify route taxi owners in good standing and extend 

low-interest loans for the purchase of vans and minivans.

Table 5. Fuel Economy Examples for High-Capacity Route Taxis in L/100 passenger-km

Route Taxi (2010)

Vehicle Fuel 

Economy 

(L/100 km)

Number of 

Passengers

Passenger Fuel 

Economy (L/100 

passenger-km)

% Improvement 

from FourPassenger

Corolla

Toyota Corolla 9.0 4 2.3 0%

Toyota Sienna 

minivan 11.8 7 1.7 25%

Nissan NV3500 van 16.8 11 1.5 32%

This strategy ranks well in Table 4, per the following assessment: 

• GHG reduction is high because 39% of Jamaicans utilize route taxis as their primary 

form of transportation. Furthermore, the per-passenger efficiency improvement could be 

significant, per Table 5.

• Upfront cost is medium because government assistance would likely be needed to cover 

mapping routes, scheduling, website creation and maintenance, and coordinating in the 

route taxi terminals. Small vehicles will be replaced at the end of their useful life so only 

the incremental cost of the larger vehicles can be attributed to the project costs. 

• Time required to implement would be high because of the multitude of routes, schedules, 

and vehicles that would need to be optimized. Coordinating route taxis is particularly 

time-intense because there are thousands of participants that are not tightly organized 

through the All-Island Route Taxi Association and its 28 regional associations.

• Ancillary benefits would be high because condensing passengers into fewer route taxis 

could substantially reduce traffic congestion and accidents while improving air quality.

5.8 Track Buses and Show Live Transit Updates in Google Maps

The JUTC has uploaded its schedules onto Google Maps to make its bus system more userfriendly and accessible. The next step toward greater predictability of buses is to add live transit 

updates for Kingston. This lets riders know exactly when their bus is going to arrive, as shown in 

Figure 10. This is best done through Transport Tracker (directions are on the Transport Tracker 

Solutions website [Google “The Transport Tracker Solution”]). Given that the number of smart 

phone users on one of Jamaica’s two service providers surpassed 1 million in January 2015

(Jamaica Observer January 10, 2015), it is reasonable to assume that a large portion of Jamaica’s 

2.9 million citizens now have a smart phone. Bus updates can be viewed on computers as well.
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Figure 10. Smart phone screen shot displaying live transit updates on Google Maps

• GHG reduction is medium. Jamaica’s BAU case assumes that its bus ridership rates will 

decrease as the country develops. This is what other countries have experienced; the trend 

is driven by inconvenience and unpredictability associated with riding the bus. The JUTC

can retain riders by increasing convenience and predictability even as its wealth and 

ability to purchase private vehicles increases. 

• Upfront cost is low. It consists of an Android smart phone used as the locator device in 

each bus (old phones are fine), a monthly service plan, a Firebase Realtime Database, and 

a developer on staff to develop this capability and trouble shoot when something goes 

wrong. The necessary code is open sourced and free on GitHub (Google “Transit”).

• Time required to implement is low. Arranging for the purchase of the phones, 

installation, setup for the database, and launching the capability in Google Maps should 

take a few months.

• Ancillary benefits are high. Live transit updates will save riders considerable time and 

stress. By increasing ridership, traffic will also be reduced, along with the associated 

GHG emissions. 
23

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5.9 Provide Pedestrians and Cyclists with Safety Reflectors and 

Lights

VKT will increase so long as pedestrians feel safer in cars than on foot. Travelling on foot at 

night is a particular concern, as 75% of accidents in the United States that result in a pedestrian 

casualty occurred in the dark (National Center for Statistics and Analysis 2018). Much of 

Jamaica’s population lives in areas with inadequate street lighting. Various pilot programs to 

distribute reflectors or lights to school children have proven effective at mitigating accidents

(World Health Organization 2013). Studies have identified that reflector vests are the most 

effective option for increasing the visibility of cyclists to drivers (Wood et al. 2012). Other 

considerations include: 

• GHG reduction is medium. While the distances that people usually travel by foot are 

relatively small, each kilometer of vehicle travel replaced by foot travel results in a 100% 

reduction in GHG emissions. This is the same for cycling, although the distances covered 

are longer. More than 12% of Jamaicans walk as their primary means of transportation

and 2% bicycle (Statistical Institute of Jamaica 2011). If improving pedestrian and cyclist 

safety could retain or increase this rate of walking, it could have a substantial impact on 

GHG emissions. 

• Upfront cost is low. Purchasing reflective bags or clothing for school children is 

significantly less expensive than funding most projects involving road infrastructure or 

vehicle purchases. Furthermore, once the advantages of reflectors and lights become 

apparent to pedestrians, at a certain point it is possible they may purchase their own

reflective gear and project maintenance costs would be minimal. 

• Time required to implement is low. Reflectors and lights can be purchased quickly. 

However, a robust outreach campaign preceding the distribution of equipment 

distribution is recommended in order to educate pedestrians and cyclists about the value 

and use of the equipment. 

• Ancillary benefits are high. Reflective equipment can save lives and protect the health of 

both children and adults. Furthermore, increases in pedestrian and cyclist activity are 

inversely related to traffic congestion and air pollution.

5.10 Lower-Priority Policies and Projects

The projects listed above either ranked high on GHG reduction or ranked high on all other 

attributes, making them the higher-ranking half of all proposed projects. As such, these projects 

were discussed in greater depth. This section gives a brief overview of the second half of the 

projects. Despite being covered in less depth, these projects could be quicker and easier to 

implement or might deserve consideration for reasons not listed in Table 4. Such considerations 

could include having a champion that pushes their implementation before other projects. The 

remaining projects include:

1. Fuel economy and fuel cost labeling requirements. Stickers on vehicles at dealerships 

with the estimated fuel economy or annual fuel cost of the vehicle enable consumers to 

take the economics of fuel economy into account at the point of purchase. IEA 2015

(Mock 2013) compares various fuel efficiency labelling schemes from around the world 
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and provides best practices that can be applied to Jamaica. Using fuel economy on the 

Japanese test cycle would be a good start since most of Jamaica’s vehicles are from Japan 

and the data are readily available. However, to maximize accuracy, Jamaica could 

develop its own test drive cycle, perhaps with the DRIVE tool (National Renewable 

Energy Laboratory 2015).

2. Safe passing rule for bikers and pedestrians. A minimum passing distance law sends a 

signal that pedestrians and bikers have the right to be on the road and that it is the 

responsibility of drivers to avoid hitting them. Of course, the law is only effective if 

police actively enforce it. The League of American Bicyclists developed a model safepassing law (League of American Bicyclists 2019) to help municipalities and countries 

develop effective laws. Much can also be learned from existing policies for pedestrian 

and bicyclist safety, as reviewed by the International Technology Scanning Program 2010

(U.S. Department of Transportation 2010).

3. Coordinate traffic signals. Mis-timed traffic signals have been identified as a cause of 

undue congestion in Kingston (Saunderson 2017). Signal coordination systems have the 

potential to improve traffic flow. The amount of fuel saved and GHGs reduced are 

dependent on many factors. The software SimTraffic (Cubic Trafficware 2019) was 

created to account for all those factors and estimate GHGs reduced. It is recommended 

that Kingston’s most problematic signals be modeled in SimTraffic and the results be 

used to strategically replace signals that can be coordinated through a system such as 

Trafficware.

4. Rumble strips to improve pedestrian/biker safety. As most countries develop, they initiate 

a negative feedback loop. Cars are prioritized, VKT increase, pedestrian and biker safety 

decrease, which encourage travel by car instead of walking or biking. Jamaica should

safeguard pedestrian and biker space to preempt this feedback loop. Rumble strips are a 

relatively inexpensive and effective way to keep drivers off the shoulder of the road, 

providing pedestrians with an assurance of safety. In areas where the road is too narrow, 

“sharrows” (National Association of City Transportation Officials undated) reserve space 

for bikers and increase driver awareness. Two helpful resources are the U.S. Federal 

Highway Administration’s guide for installing rumble strips (U.S. Department of 

Transportation 2016) and the World Health Organization’s road safety manual for 

decision makers (World Health Organization 2013).

5. Install public EV chargers in strategic locations. One of the main barriers to EV 

purchases is range anxiety, which can be ameliorated by highly visible public charging 

stations. In the United States, the relationship is that one additional charger per driving 

population of 100,000 correlates to a 3.1% increase in EV purchases (Narassimhan and 

Johnson 2018). Therefore, to increase EV purchases, Jamaica should install chargers 

along highly trafficked roads and promote them with ample road signage. 

6. Add left-turn lanes at key intersections to improve traffic flow. Jamaica has many roads 

where vehicles turning left clog a lane of the intersection and stop vehicles that are going 

straight. Many vehicles could flow through the intersections unimpeded if the vehicles 

turning left had their own lane. An assessment should be done by the National Works 

Agency to determine which intersections have the most left-turners and lanes added 

systematically as resources allow.
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7. Create a motorcycle/scooter safety program. Motorcycles in the United States achieve an 

average fuel economy of 5.4 L/100 km (U.S. Department of Transportation 2018).

Assuming Jamaican motorcycles are as efficient, increasing motorcycle ridership could 

greatly improve overall fleet fuel economy. One of the most important things a 

government can do to increase motorcycle ridership is to improve the safety of riders. 

Fortunately, many Departments of Transportation worldwide have implemented 

programs to improve motorcycle safety to serve as examples. Five of the most proactive 

programs have been implemented in France; Ireland; Bogota, Colombia; and the state of 

Florida. The Florida Motorcycle Safety Strategic Plan (Florida Department of 

Transportation 2016) serves as a great example for Jamaica.

8. Build bus and route taxi pull-offs to improve traffic flow. When buses and route taxis 

stop in the road, they stop many cars behind them. This has a significant negative effect 

on the efficiency of the traffic flow. Analysis should be done by the National Works 

Agency on where this is happening the most often, and pull-offs should be added.
26

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6 Conclusion

Reducing Jamaica’s GHG emissions by 10% below the 2030 BAU scenario is quite possible for 

the road transportation sector if approached systematically. The necessary data to define a 

transportation system were tracked (in the case of fuel use) and derived from several sources (in 

the case of vehicle stock and VKT). The BAU 2030 scenario was derived based on VKT 

increases seen in other countries as they developed. The 10% goal was then allocated to subgoals 

of GHG reduction, with the largest share (59%) to be achieved by VKT reduction projects, then 

18% from fuel economy improvement, 16% from B5 biodiesel, 3.7% from traffic-flow 

improvements, and 3% split between IR and EVs. A path to achieve the subgoals was then 

charted out by a series of policies and projects that have track records of achieving GHG 

reductions in several other countries throughout the world. These projects could achieve the 10% 

GHG reduction goal and provide many co-benefits, including traffic reduction, air quality 

improvements, cost savings, and safety improvements. 
27

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

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This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Appendix A. 2050 Wedge Analysis

Jamaica is already beginning to consider steps beyond its 2030 goal. To facilitate this planning, 

we ran a scenario of how Jamaica’s ground transportation sector could achieve an 80% reduction 

in GHG emissions by 2050. 

The 2050 base case was derived the same way as the 2030 case. As shown in Figure 3, personal 

VKT per capita is estimated to be 4,612 km by 2050. The freight/personal VKT ratio in the base 

case is assumed to stay the same, so total VKT per capita is 5,363 km. After taking the UN 2050 

population projections into account (UN 2017), we see that the VKT annual growth rate of 1.2% 

(the same as applied to the 2016–2030 BAU case) applies to the 2016–2050 time period as well. 

This same growth rate was used to set the BAU petroleum use and GHG emissions projections, 

as represented by the top line in Figure A1.

Figure A1. Reduction wedges to reduce Jamaica’s transport emissions 80% below BAU by 2050

Subgoals were modeled to explore options for achieving an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050. 

The subgoals reflected in Table A1 are much more aggressive than the 2030 subgoals (Figure 3), 

reflecting the additional time allotted to achieve them and the greater overarching goal. Three 

new subgoals––HDV VKT reduction, HDV fuel economy improvements, and electric HDVs––

are also introduced. The 2050 subgoals are described below.
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This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Table A1. Subgoals, Their Predicted GHG Reduction, and Percent Contribution to Overall 2050 

Goals

Subgoal (from 2050 BAU) TMT CO2e 

reduced

Percent of 

Overall 

Goal

44% Reduction in VKT of LDVs through walking, biking, transit, 

ridesharing, and telecommuting 1,288.7 36.5

50% of new LDV purchases to be electric 621.7 17.6

75% Improvement in fuel economy for new LDVs 506.1 14.3

30% Reduction in VKT of HDVs through route optimization and 

vehicle consolidation 446.8 12.6

50% Improvement in fuel economy for new HDVs 263.0 7.4

All diesel contains 20% biodiesel 142.7 4.0

25% of new HDV purchases to be electric 137.6 3.9

Traffic-flow is smoothed so that 20% of road kilometers are 

converted from city drive cycle to highway drive cycle 117.0 3.3

HDV idle time reduced 1 hour per vehicle per day 10.4 0.3

1. Forty-four percent reduction in VKT of LDVs through walking, biking, transit, 

ridesharing, and telecommuting. This subgoal is very aggressive but becomes more 

achievable after the United Nations-projected population decrease of 6% is taken into 

account (United Nations 2017). To achieve this GHG reduction, the government could 

use price signals through increased fees associated with vehicle registration, parking, and 

fuel or carbon taxes. This subgoal is expected to provide 36.5% of the emissions 

reductions needed to achieve the overall 2050 goal—more than the next two subgoals 

combined.

2. Fifty percent of new LDV purchases to be electric by 2050. This is paired with an 

assumption that 60% of Jamaica’s electricity comes from renewable sources (replacing 

all fuel oil) and 40% comes from natural gas. Fifty percent EVs by 2050 is less than the 

2018 EV market forecast done by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) where 55% 

of new LDV sales are EVs by 2040 (BNEF 2018). BNEF derived this forecast by 

comparing the production costs of EVs and conventional vehicles over time. It estimates

EV production costs to drop below their conventional counterparts by 2030, resulting in a 

greater number of EV purchases. 

3. Seventy-five percent improvement in fuel economy for new LDVs. This would bring the 

average fuel economy of new LDVs from 9.0 L/100 km (per Table 2) to 2.25 L/100 km 

in 2050. This could be achieved if Jamaica met the Global Fuel Economy Initiative goal 

of 4.2 L/100 km by 2030 and then relaxed its pace of progress from 5% per year to 3% 

per year for the next 20 years. 2.25 L/100 km is close to 100 miles per gallon—the fuel 

economy target for the 2010 X-Prize competition that multiple teams achieved (Ahrens 

2010). 
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This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

4. Thirty percent reduction in the VKT of HDVs (while assuming that a proportional share 

of these will be EVs and that 60% of Jamaica’s electricity is from renewable sources and 

40% from natural gas). This can be pursued through route optimization software (such as 

the products listed and rated on Capterra’s website [Capterra 2018]), truck consolidation 

(such as that done by the Royal Mail when it adopted double-deck trailers [Logistics 

Manager 2007]), and bus consolidation (which would entail more articulated buses in the

JUTC fleet). It should be noted that the VKT reduction in LDVs would likely increase 

bus ridership, which would increase the difficulty of HDV VKT reduction. 

5. Fifty percent improvement in HDV fuel economy. This is within the range of four major 

studies assessing the potential improvements in the United States and European HDV 

markets (Global Fuel Economy Initiative 2016). Furthermore, efficient vehicles should 

become more available because the United States, Canada, Japan, and China (which 

collectively cover nearly half of the global market) have now adopted national efficiency 

regulations for HDVs that are to achieve between 10% and 14% fuel reduction by 2030. 

6. All road transportation diesel contains 20% biodiesel (B20). This blend level is accepted 

by most diesel engine manufacturers (that sell to the U.S. market) without voiding the 

warranty (Biodiesel 2012). Furthermore, Jamaica’s warm climate is particularly 

conducive to higher biodiesel blends because it preempts cold-start issues. Based on 

estimates in Appendix C, 60% of the biodiesel needed for B20 (in 2018) could likely be 

sourced from domestic waste oil and grease. The remaining 40% (26 million L) could 

likely be produced from domestic jatropha, castor, or coconut oil. The Petroleum 

Corporation of Jamaica has already performed a pilot project testing the viability of 

growing castor and jatropha on mined-out bauxite quarries (Jamaica Information Service 

2011). Alternatively, Jamaica has good growing conditions for coconuts. Production 

could be sustainably increased by growing coconuts over top of other crops already being 

grown (Scheewe 2003). The Coconut Industry Board could interface with the Philippine 

Coconut Authority for lessons and techniques on how it is overcoming hurdles to meet its 

nationwide B5 mandate (U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service 2017).

7. Twenty-five percent of new HDV sales are EVs by 2050. The global HDV EV market is 

less developed than its LDV counterpart, but it is positioned for robust growth. Transit 

buses are particularly well suited for electric drivetrains, and manufacturers are offering 

an increasing variety of electric buses (e-buses) every year. In 2017 there were 385,000 

e-buses on the road and 13 major cities pledged to procure only zero-emissions buses 

(mostly electric) from 2025 onward (BNEF 2018). The momentum of the e-bus market is 

such that BNEF forecasts 15% to 35% of all municipal bus sales globally to be electric by 

2030 (BNEF 2018). The EV market for other HDVs is further behind that of e-buses. 

However, the number of electric truck manufacturers is growing, their products stand to 

benefit from the progress made by e-bus manufacturers, and many other HDV fleet 

vehicles have drive cycles that are well suited to capitalize on the benefits that electric 

drivetrains offer (National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2017).

8. HDV idle time reduced by 1 hour per day. This is assumed to be a reasonable amount of 

idle time to cut since, as explained in Section 4, 90% of the trucks on the U.S. mainland 

idle more than 48 minutes per day. The technologies and policies to reduce idle time are 

well established and effective in locations where they have been implemented.
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This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

9. Traffic flow is smoothed so that 20% of road kilometers, weighted by traffic volume, are 

converted from a city drive cycle to a highway drive cycle. This ambitious subgoal will 

be greatly facilitated by the VMT-reduction efforts, as it should reduce congestion and 

therefore improve drive cycles. Jamaica’s trend of developing thoroughfares and toll 

roads such as A1, T1, and Port Kingston Causeway should also greatly improve drive 

cycles. 
38

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Appendix B. Supplemental Wedge Model Details

The wedge model accounts for GHG reductions in a specific order to minimize double counting 

and to track the impact that one subgoal has on others. Further clarity is gained by accounting for 

the type of petroleum fuel—diesel or gasoline—associated with each wedge. All wedge tracking 

assumes that LDVs use gasoline and HDVs use diesel. 

The VKT reductions are taken first, because any progress in this wedge affects the amount of 

gasoline use available to be reduced by any of the other wedges. We assume that all VKT 

reduction projects will be aimed at LDVs that use gasoline. This does not account for the 

potential increase in bus use due to increased mass transit, so non-bus HDVs may need to reduce 

VKT to make up for any increase by buses. 

The Electric Vehicle and Fuel Economy wedges are based on new LDV sales. Therefore, for 

purposes of calculation, we assume that the pool of vehicles has been reduced commensurately 

with VKT. Although this will not necessarily be the case, it does not distort fuel-use reduction 

figures, since both the number of vehicles and per-vehicle VKT are multiplied (over fuel 

economy) when fuel use is calculated. After taking this LDV reduction into account, we predict 

annual LDV sales by looking at the number of vehicles that would be replaced any given year. 

The Electric Vehicle wedge is first calculated off this value, and the Fuel Economy wedge is 

then derived from the remainder of new vehicles, after the EVs are subtracted from the annual 

vehicle sales. 

The Electric Vehicle and Fuel Economy goals are set to apply only to LDVs, because gasoline 

use represents a greater share of Jamaica’s petroleum use than diesel use does. We apply the fuel 

economy goal only to gasoline-powered LDVs, because there is greater potential for fuel 

economy improvements in this sector. This is largely because fleets tend to consider life cycle 

fuel costs and other operating costs when purchasing HDVs, making fuel economy a major 

factor in acquisitions. In contrast, individuals who purchase LDVs (or any other energyconsuming device) tend to prioritize upfront cost over lifetime fuel savings (Hausman 1979), so 

they do not maximize fuel economy. 

Fuel (both gasoline and diesel) saved through traffic signal synchronization is applied after the 

Fuel Economy wedge, because the latter is based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencylabeled fuel economy and does not take traffic flow into account. The Traffic Flow Improvement 

wedge is independent from the IR wedge, since there is no quantifiable relationship between the 

two. Diesel saved from both wedges is subtracted from the amount of diesel used before B5 is 

applied to the remaining diesel use. 

We assume that most projects will be phased in on a regular schedule. Some schedules, like that 

for EVs, do not begin immediately though, because we deem it a better use of financial resources 

to wait until prices drop. Furthermore, dealers must develop the capability to service EVs, after 

which point we expect adoption to grow fairly quickly. Some schedules, like that of biodiesel, 

occur in large steps, because we assume that production capacity must be developed in discrete 

phases that coincide with infrastructure development. The Fuel Economy wedge starts 

immediately and grows at a steady rate because fuel economy regulations took effect in 2012, 

and we assume a steady rate of LDV scrappage over time. The Traffic Flow wedge manifests its 

petroleum-use reductions in a single jump, since it requires a central infrastructure project. The 
39

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

VKT and IR wedges gradually ramp up over time, since they require behavioral change and 

numerous small investments.
40

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Appendix C. Estimates of Potential Biodiesel 

Produced from Used Cooking Oil and Waste Grease

Used Cooking Oil. The population of Jamaica is 2,881,355 (United Nations 2017) and the 

average household size is 3.1 people (ArcGIS 2013), meaning that there are 929,469 households 

in Jamaica. We assume that each household uses 7 kilograms (kg) of cooking oil because that is 

what a Brazilian household uses (Mandolesi de Araújo et al. 2013). Eighteen percent of that 

amount gets absorbed into the food (Mandolesi de Araújo et al. 2013), leaving 5.3 million kg or 

4.9 million L of UCO available for biodiesel. Biodiesel has a 94% conversion rate (Mandolesi de 

Araújo et al. 2013), meaning that 4.6 million L can be produced each year, which is 30% of the 

15.5 million L that would be required to make all road diesel B5 in 2018.

Waste Grease. Each U.S. citizen produces 10.4 kg of waste grease per year (Wiltsee 1998), so 

we assume that the same holds true for Jamaicans. A total of 0.96 kg of waste grease is used to 

produce 1 L of biodiesel (Fortenbery 2005), so 31 million L of biodiesel could be produced from 

waste grease in Jamaica. This is about twice the amount that would be needed to make all diesel 

B5 in 2018.