U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Quantification of Shoreline Change Along Hatteras Island, 

North Carolina—Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, 1978–2002, 

and Associated Vector Shoreline Data 

By Cheryl J. Hapke and Rachel E. Henderson

Open-File Report 2015–1002

 ̄

Shoreline Year

1978

1989

2002
ii

U.S. Department of the Interior

SALLY JEWELL, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2015

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Suggested citation:

Hapke, C.J., and Henderson, R.E., 2015, Quantification of shoreline change along Hatteras Island, 

North Carolina—Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, 1978–2002, and associated vector shoreline data: 

U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015–1002, 13 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151002.

ISSN 2331-1258 (online)
iii

Acknowledgments

We thank Bill Berkemeier and Jesse McNinch of the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Field 

Research Facility for providing access to the aerial photograph library. 

Jeff List of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) contributed to the formulation of the uncertainty 

calculations for the rates of change. Rob Thieler was instrumental in initiating this effort and contributed 

significantly to the initial development of the shoreline database.
iv

Contents

Abstract .................................................................................................................................................................... 1

Introduction............................................................................................................................................................... 1

Data and Methods .................................................................................................................................................... 3

Georeferencing of Aerial Imagery ........................................................................................................................ 3

Shorelines............................................................................................................................................................. 3

Calculation of Shoreline Change Rates.................................................................................................................... 5

Shoreline Change Uncertainty.................................................................................................................................. 5

Results of Shoreline Change Rate Analysis............................................................................................................. 9

Summary ................................................................................................................................................................ 11

References Cited.................................................................................................................................................... 12

Figures

1. Map showing study area ................................................................................................................................... 2

2. Images showing examples of high water line shorelines and imagery for 3 of the 14 dates included 

in the shoreline database and the shoreline change analysis .......................................................................... 4

3. Graph showing shoreline change rates for 1978–2002 .................................................................................... 6

4. Graph showing shoreline change rates for 1978–89 ........................................................................................ 7

5. Graph showing shoreline change rates for 1989–2002 .................................................................................... 8

Tables

1. Dates and details of aerial imagery. ................................................................................................................. 5

2. Shoreline positional uncertainty. ...................................................................................................................... 9

3. Shoreline change statistics for Hatteras Island, North Carolina, for the time period 1978–2002. .................. 10

4. Shoreline change statistics for Hatteras Island, North Carolina, for the time period 1978–89........................ 10

5. Shoreline change statistics for Hatteras Island, North Carolina, for the time period 1989–2002.................... 10
v

Conversion Factors

Inch/Pound to SI

Multiply By To obtain

Length

meter (m) 3.281 foot (ft) 

kilometer (km) 0.6214 mile (mi)

kilometer (km) 0.5400 mile, nautical (nmi) 

meter (m) 1.094 yard (yd) 

Flow rate

meter per year (m/yr) 3.281 foot per year (ft/yr) 

Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83). 
1

Quantification of Shoreline Change Along Hatteras Island, 

North Carolina—Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, 1978–2002, 

and Associated Vector Shoreline Data

By Cheryl J. Hapke and Rachel E. Henderson

Abstract

Shoreline change spanning twenty-four years was assessed along the coastline of Cape Hatteras 

National Seashore, at Hatteras Island, North Carolina. The shorelines used in the analysis were generated from georeferenced historical aerial imagery and are used to develop shoreline change rates for 

Hatteras Island, from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras. A total of 14 dates of aerial photographs ranging 

from 1978 through 2002 were obtained from the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Field Research Facility 

in Duck, North Carolina, and scanned to generate digital imagery. The digital imagery was georeferenced and high water line shorelines (interpreted from the wet/dry line) were digitized from each date 

to produce a time series of shorelines for the study area. Rates of shoreline change were calculated for 

three periods: the full span of the time series, 1978 through 2002, and two approximately decadal subsets, 1978–89 and 1989–2002. 

Introduction

There are numerous studies of shoreline change in the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, region 

(fig. 1) including those of Everts and others (1983), Dolan and others (1991), Fenster and Dolan (1993), 

and the North Carolina Division of Coastal Management (2004). This report presents a new dataset that 

provides a temporally robust collection of historical shorelines for this part of the North Carolina coast. 

Many earlier shoreline compilations and assessments for this area consist of shoreline datasets that combine various shoreline proxies and sources including maps, photos, field data, and lidar. This report uses 

a single method (high water line [HWL] interpretation from imagery) to derive the shorelines. Shoreline 

change rates quantified from 1978 to 2002 provide a baseline to compare with more recent shoreline 

change observations and to provide data for models developed to predict change to coastal hazards 

including storms and sea-level rise. 

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards 

(NACCH) project focuses on quantifying coastal change hazards along open-ocean coasts in the United 

States and its territories. Two of the primary tasks of the project are to quantify long-term (years to 

centuries) coastal change using a consistent and systematic approach on a national scale, and to examine 

the drivers of change on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. In regions of interest and in support 

of other USGS research investigations, more focused analyses of long-term change are also conducted. 

In North Carolina, the USGS, in collaboration with the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE), the 

State of North Carolina, and a number of academic institutions, has engaged in various research projects along the North Carolina coast with an overall goal of increasing the understanding of this dynamic 

and complex coastal resource. Efforts include the following: mapping the regional sedimentary framework of the northern North Carolina coast to better understand coastal processes, erosion, and shoreline 

change (North Carolina Regional Coastal Erosion Study); improving the capabilities of coastal change 
2

models to predict large-scale shoreline change on open-ocean sandy coasts using high-resolution observations of geological framework and shoreline change (North Carolina Coastal Change); and investigating the interactions among shoreline, nearshore, and offshore sediment-transport processes driving 

coastal change in the Carolinas (Carolina Coastal Change Process).

Atlantic Ocean

Rodanthe

Waves

Salvo

Avon

Buxton

Frisco

Hatteras

Cape Hatteras

Lighthouse Site 

Oregon Inlet

Pamlico Sound

Hatteras Inlet

South 

Carolina

North 

Carolina

Map area

Virginia

75°40' W 75°30' W 75°20' W

35°40' N

35°30' N

35°20' N

35°10' N

75°50' W

0 5 10 20 KILOMETERS

0 5 10 20 MILES Sub areas

Extent of shoreline change analysis

Pea Island Wildlife Refuge

Cape Hatteras National Seashore 

EXPLANATION

Figure 1. Map of study area. Approximate locations of Cape Hatteras National Seashore and Pea Island Wildlife Refuge digitized 

from the NPS Cape Hatteras National Seashore map.
3

Data and Methods

Historical aerial photographic film or contact prints, if film was not available, were acquired 

from the USACE air photo library located at the Field Research Facility in Duck, N.C., not shown 

on map (table 1). The photographs were scanned at approximately 1,200 dots per inch using a Zeiss/

Intergraph PS 2000 photogrammetric scanner.

Georeferencing of Aerial Imagery 

The historical digital imagery was georeferenced to 2007 North Carolina State orthophotography (1:4,800, 1-ft pixel, color, North American Datum 1983 (NAD83), North Carolina [feet U.S.]) 

using Earth Resources Data Analysis System (ERDAS) Imagine [v. 9.3]. Eight to 10 control points were 

established for each image by visually identifying coincident points between the historical imagery 

and the 2007 orthophotography. Additional points were added as necessary to achieve acceptable root 

mean square (RMS) error (less than 1 meter [m]). The images were georeferenced using a second-order 

polynomial transformation with a nearest-neighbor resample method, and quality assessments were 

conducted. The average RMS value for each year is reported as the georeferencing uncertainty for that 

dataset (table 1). 

Shorelines

Shorelines were digitized from the georeferenced aerial images in Esri ArcMap (v. 9.3) using 

the wet/dry line as a high water line (HWL) shoreline proxy (fig. 2). The HWL is defined as the line of 

wetted sand that is most often present seaward of the berm crest indicating the landward limit of the last 

high-tide swash incursion.

The HWL is the intersection of a water level on the beach, and because of this, variations in either the morphology of the beach or the water level can result in substantial horizontal displacements of 

the HWL shoreline. Errors associated with the displacement of the HWL because of wave, tide, or wind 

effects can amount to tens of meters (Thieler and Danforth, 1994; Pajak and Leatherman, 2002). To minimize errors associated with the use of the HWL as a shoreline indicator, meteorological data (waves, 

tides, and wind) were gathered on the date and time of the aerial photography; post-storm photography 

was avoided and a bias uncertainty was applied to account for expected variations in HWL position.

Shorelines were quality-assessed and edited to remove any overlap between adjacent shorelines. 

No edge matching between adjacent shorelines was attempted. Shorelines from all years were merged 

to produce a single shoreline file for the region while maintaining the identity, date, and uncertainty 

information of each shoreline. The merged shoreline file was projected from NAD 83, State Plane 

North Carolina, feet to NAD 83, Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone 18N. 

The positional errors for shorelines used in this study are determined following the methodology 

of Morton and Miller (2005), Hapke and others (2006), and Hapke and others (2011). The terms included are those associated with the georeferencing process (pixel size, georeferencing RMS and controlpoint uncertainty) and digitizing error. The digitizing error is the maximum considered in past studies 

(Anders and Byrnes, 1991; Crowell and others, 1991; Moore, 2000). The shoreline position uncertainty 

is estimated using a square root of the sum of the squares of the terms (table 2). The addition of a term 

for HWL uncertainty was included to cover unknown meteorological effects on the position of the HWL 

shoreline on the beach. Shoreline position uncertainty is added to the attribute table of each shoreline 

file, for use with shoreline change uncertainty calculations. 
4

1978 1989 2002

0 200 400 800 FEET

EXPLANAT 0 100 200 400 METERS ION

High Water Line Shorelines

1978

1989

2002 Rodanthe Pier

75°27'40"W

35°35'20"N

35°35'10"N

35°35'0"N

75°27'40"W 75°27'40"W

Figure 2. Example of high water line (HWL) shorelines and imagery for 3 of the 14 dates included in the shoreline database and the shoreline 

change analysis. The area shown in the imagery is the village of Rodanthe, North Carolina.
5

Calculation of Shoreline Change Rates

Rates of shoreline change were generated in ArcMap (v. 9.3) using the Digital Shoreline 

Analysis System (DSAS; v. 4.2), which is a freely available ArcGIS tool developed by the USGS 

(Thieler and others, 2009). Baselines were manually drawn seaward of, and parallel to, the general 

trend of the shorelines. DSAS was used to generate transect lines orthogonal to the baselines at 50-m 

intervals and extending to intersect all the shorelines. Measurements made from the intersection of the 

transect lines and the shorelines are used to calculate shoreline change rates using a variety of statistical 

approaches.

For this report, long-term rates of shoreline change were calculated at each transect using a 

linear regression applied to all shoreline positions from the earliest (1978) to the most recent (2002). 

Linear-regression rates of change were also determined for two subsets of the time series, 1978–89 

and 1989–2002. In all, 14 shorelines/dates were used to compute the rate of change (table 1). Linearregression fitting is the most commonly applied statistical technique for expressing shoreline movement 

and estimating rates of change (Crowell and Leatherman, 1999). 

Table 1. Dates and details of aerial imagery. 

[m, meters; RMS, root mean square; B&W, black and white; imagery acquired from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers air photo library 

located at the Field Research Facility in Duck, NC]

Year Date Media Scale Pixel size 

(m)

Georeferenced

RMS (m)

Base map uncertainty 

(m)

1978 02 Dec Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.29 0.005 1.2

1979 20 Sep Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.29 0.006 1.2

1984 07, 19 Sep Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.29 0.008 1.2

1985 23 Aug Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.29 0.004 1.2

1987 10 Jul Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.28 0.004 1.2

1989 30 Jul Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.28 0.007 1.2

1991 19 Oct Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.29 0.003 1.2

1992 02 Oct Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.29 0.004 1.2

1993 02 Sep Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.29 0.004 1.2

1995 18 Oct Film–B&W 1:12,000 0.24 0.005 1.2

1996 14 Oct Print–B&W 1:12,000 0.30 0.002 1.2

1997 12 Oct Film–Color 1:12,000 0.29 0.004 1.2

1998 02 Oct Print–Color 1:12,000 0.30 0.002 1.2

2002 18 Oct Print–Color 1:12,000 0.30 0.002 1.2

Average 0.30 0.004 1.2

Shoreline Change Uncertainty

The uncertainty associated with rates of shoreline change determined at each individual transect is a function of the total uncertainty of the shoreline positions used in the regression calculation at 

that location. Along with linear-regression rates (LRRs), DSAS automatically generates user-defined 
6

confidence intervals for each transect. The confidence interval was calculated by multiplying the standard deviation of the slope by the two-tailed test statistic at the 95 confidence percentage (Thieler and 

others, 2009; Zar, 1999). This uncertainty is shown as the shaded area around the shoreline change 

curves of figures 3–5.

Sub areas

Cape Hatteras National 

Seashore

Pea Island Wildlife Refuge

EXPLANATION

Rate of change

95-percent 

confidence interval

0 5 10 MILES

0 5 10 KILOMETERS

75°30' W

35°40' N

35°30' N

35°20' N

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

10

20

30

50

40

60

Cape Hatteras

Rodanthe

Waves

Salvo

Avon

Oregon Inlet

Hatteras

Lighthouse Site

Change rate in meters per year

Distance along shore in kilometers

1978–2002

Figure 3. Shoreline change rates for 1978–2002. Rates of change are linear regression with the 95-percent confidence interval 

highlighted. Changes at Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras Point (boxed area on map) are not presented in this figure. Average shoreline 

change rates for these sections are presented in table 3.
7

Sub areas

Cape Hatteras National 

Seashore

Pea Island Wildlife Refuge

EXPLANATION

Rate of change

95-percent 

confidence interval

0 5 10 MILES

0 5 10 KILOMETERS

75°30' W

35°40' N

35°30' N

35°20' N

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

10

20

30

50

40

60

Cape Hatteras

Rodanthe

Waves

Salvo

Avon

Oregon Inlet

Hatteras

Lighthouse Site

1978–1989 

Change rate in meters per year

Distance along shore in kilometers

Figure 4. Shoreline change rates for 1978–89. Rates of change are linear regression with the 95-percent confidence interval highlighted. 

Changes at Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras Point (boxed area on map) are not presented in this figure. Average shoreline change rates for 

these sections are presented in table 4.
8

Sub areas

Cape Hatteras National 

Seashore

Pea Island Wildlife Refuge

EXPLANATION

Rate of change

95-percent 

confidence interval

0 5 10 MILES

0 5 10 KILOMETERS

75°30' W

35°40' N

35°30' N

35°20' N

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

10

20

30

50

40

60

Cape Hatteras

Rodanthe

Waves

Salvo

Avon

Oregon Inlet

Hatteras

Lighthouse Site

1989–2002 

Change rate in meters per year

Distance along shore in kilometers

Figure 5. Shoreline change rates for 1989–2002. Rates of change are linear regression with the 95-percent confidence interval 

highlighted. Changes at Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras (boxed area on map) are not presented in this figure. Average shoreline change 

rates for these sections are presented in table 5.
9

The uncertainties reported for the subarea averaged linear-regression rates (tables 3, 4, and 5) are 

calculated following the method developed by Hapke and others (2011). This approach uses a spatially 

lagged autocorrelation (Garrett and Toulany, 1981) to determine the number of independent transects 

in the area along which rates are being averaged. A quadrature average (Taylor, 1997) of the 95-percent 

confidence interval is then determined using the reduced number of independent transects. The subarea 

adjacent to Oregon Inlet (fig. 1) is too small to successfully determine a reduced number of independent transects, and thus it is assumed that there is only one independent sample within this limited area. 

Therefore, the uncertainty associated with averaged rates for the Oregon Inlet subarea presented in 

tables 3, 4, and 5 is the average of the 95-percent confidence interval measured at each transect. 

Table 2. Shoreline positional uncertainty. 

[m, meter; RMS, root mean square; georeferenced imagery uncertainty is the 

quadrature summation of the averaged terms defined in table 1 and the shorelinepositional uncertainty (in bold) is the quadrature summation of the georeferenced, 

digitizing, and high water line uncertainty terms]

Georeferenced Imagery Uncertainty 1.2 m

Average Pixel Size (0.3 m)

Average Georeferencing RMS (0.004 m)

Base map uncertainty (1.2 m)

Digitizing Uncertainty 1 m

High Water Line Uncertainty 4.2 m

Shoreline-Position Uncertainty 4.5 m

Results of Shoreline Change Rate Analysis

Rates of shoreline change for Hatteras Island are presented for three different time periods—the 

entire time span of the dataset (1978–2002) and the decadal subsets (1978–89 and 1989–2002)—to 

quantify and examine temporal variations in the shoreline behavior (figs. 3, 4, and 5; tables 3, 4, and 5). 

The section of coast covered by the database extends from Oregon Inlet to the point at Cape Hatteras 

(fig. 1). The rates of change in the areas immediately adjacent to Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras are 

substantially greater than the rest of Hatteras Island primarily because of disruptions in the sediment 

supply associated with the jetty at Oregon Inlet and the dynamic sediment-transport processes related 

to the Cape and cape shoals. The plots of shoreline change rates (figs. 3, 4, and 5) exclude values for 

the portions of the coast (highlighted in fig. 1) adjacent to Oregon Inlet and south of the Cape Hatteras 

Lighthouse Site. In addition, tables 3, 4, and 5 present averaged rates for the entire study area, and for 

the subdivided portions of the coast to more adequately represent the change rates along the main length 

of Hatteras Island and the adjacent stretches of coastline.

The average rate of shoreline change for the 24-year time period spanning 1978–2002 along 

the full length of the study area is -1.4±0.3 meters per year (m/yr; table 3). The rates of change differ 

considerably along Hatteras Island (fig. 3), but are predominantly negative (erosional), with the exception of several localized zones of accretion in northern and southern Pea Island Wildlife Refuge, south 

of Salvo, N.C., and north of Avon, N.C.. Rates of change in the subarea of Cape Hatteras are positive 

(progradational), whereas the area adjacent to Oregon Inlet has high rates of negative change with an 

average rate of -15.4±9.7 m/yr (table 3) and a maximum erosion rate of -76.6±35.3 m/yr.
10

Table 3. Shoreline change statistics for Hatteras Island, North Carolina, for the time period 1978–2002. 

[Shoreline analysis divided by regions. Value for the entire study are are displayed in bold. m/yr, meters per year; max, 

maximum; min, minimum; -, negative; ±, plus or minus; +, positive]

Hatteras Island, North Carolina: 1978–2002

Area No. of 

Transects

Percent 

Eroding Mean (m/yr) Max (m/yr) Min (m/yr)

Hatteras Island 1217 83 -1.5±0.2 +2.9 -7.9

Oregon Inlet 23 100 -15.4±9.7 -4.3 -76.6

Cape Hatteras 64 27 +6.1±3.8 +19.4 -8.1

Oregon Inlet to 

Cape Hatteras

1304 80 -1.4±0.3 +19.4 -76.6

Table 4. Shoreline change statistics for Hatteras Island, North Carolina, for the time period 1978–89.

[Shoreline analysis divided by regions. Values for the entire study are displayed in bold. m/yr, meters per year; max, 

maximum; min, minimum; +, positive; ±, plus or minus; -, negative]

Hatteras Island, North Carolina: 1978–89

Area No. of 

Transects

Percent 

Eroding Mean (m/yr) Max (m/yr) Min (m/yr)

Hatteras Island 1220 48 +0.14±0.6 +12.3 -18.9

Oregon Inlet 23 100 -28.0±20.3 -6.8 -76.6

Cape Hatteras 48 31 +9.6±17.5 +41.1 -43.9

Oregon Inlet to 

Cape Hatteras

1291 48 -0.01±0.9 +41.1 -76.6

Table 5. Shoreline change statistics for Hatteras Island, North Carolina, for the time period 1989–2002.

[Shoreline analysis divided by regions. Value for the entire study are are displayed in bold. m/yr, meters per year; max, 

maximum; min, minimum; -, negative; ±, plus or minus; +, positive]

Hatteras Island, North Carolina: 1989–2002

Area No. of 

Transects

Percent 

Eroding Mean (m/yr) Max (m/yr) Min (m/yr)

Hatteras Island 1217 83 -2.1±0.3 +3.8 -8.4

Oregon Inlet 20 30 +10.0±43.3 +84.1 -4.2

Cape Hatteras 58 33 +0.45 ± 8.5 +20.7 -40.4

Oregon Inlet to 

Cape Hatteras

1295 80 -1.8±0.4 +84.1 -40.4

In the time period spanning 1978–89, the average rate of change for the study area is not significantly different from a zero rate of change (-0.01±0.9 m/yr; table 4). A large zone of significant positive 

(progradational) change rates exists immediately south of Salvo, N.C. (fig. 4). The maximum rate of 

erosion, -76.6±35.3 m/yr was measured in the subarea adjacent to Oregon Inlet, and the maximum rate 

of progradation, 41.1±23.8 m/yr was located in the Cape Hatteras subarea (table 4).
11

The rates of change in the more recent time period of the analysis (1989–2002) are predominantly erosional with an average rate for the study area of -1.8±0.4 m/yr (table 5). Along the main portion 

of Hatteras Island, the highest rates of negative change are located in the vicinity of Rodanthe, N.C. 

(fig. 5). The rates of change in the Cape Hatteras subarea are highly variable ranging from a maximum 

of 20.7±34.5 m/yr to a minimum of -40.4±176.7 m/yr (table 5).

The temporal subsets of the time series indicate there is a significant difference in shoreline 

behavior between the two decadal time periods, 1978–89 and 1989–2002 (tables 4 and 5; figs. 4 and 5). 

Rates of change are highly variable along the coast in both time periods, but the extent of the study 

area with negative (erosional) shoreline change rates is substantially higher in the more recent time 

period (1989–2002). This may be attributable to differences in the wave climate (for example, increased 

storminess in the later time period) or possibly higher water levels associated with increases in rates of 

sea-level rise. 

Summary

A historical shoreline change assessment was conducted for the part of the Cape Hatteras 

National Seashore extending from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras North Carolina. As part of the study, 

14 dates of aerial photographs of the same scale were obtained from the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers 

Field Research Facility in Duck, North Carolina, scanned to produce digital imagery, and georeferenced 

using existing orthophotographs for ground control. High water line (HWL) shorelines were interpreted 

and digitized from the imagery to produce a time series from 1978 through 2002. Linear-regression rates 

of shoreline change for three time periods, 1978–2002, and two subsets of the time series, 1978–89 and 

1989–2002, indicate that shoreline response along this coast is highly variable in time and space. 

Rates of change are the most extreme in the vicinity of Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras. Along 

the main east-facing portion of Hatteras Island, rates of shoreline change for the full time series are 

predominantly negative (erosional) with the exception of several very localized zones of accretion. The 

temporal subsets of the time series indicate that the more recent time period (1989–2002) is significantly 

more erosional than the previous one.

The time series produced in this study provides a unique dataset of 14 historical shorelines 

that were derived using a systematic, consistent methodology and common source. The data provide a 

baseline to assess temporal and spatial variations in coastal behavior along this stretch of coastline that 

includes federal lands, private communities, and public infrastructure. The assessments of shoreline 

change derived during this study may help coastal managers and planners understand change within this 

dynamic system, and can be used to provide data for models of future change on Hatteras Island.
12

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