Electrification Futures 

Study: Scenarios for 

Demand-Side Adoption 

in the United States

Caitlin Murphy

Scenarios Forum 2019, Session 35

Denver, Colorado

March 13, 2019

nrel.gov/EFS
NREL | 2

Key Take-Aways

Electrification is a highly complex research topic with a broad scope:

• Involves interactions among all sectors via numerous technologies

• Crosses many jurisdictions and levels of government/regulators

• Impacts both electric system investment and operational decisions

Quantifying the effects of electrification in a meaningful way requires 

applying high-resolution modeling (across this broad scope):

1. Technological resolution

2. Spatial resolution

3. Temporal resolution
NREL | 3

What is the Electrification Futures Study (EFS)?

Study sponsored by U.S. DOE-EERE Office of Strategic Programs

Technology cost and performance (December 2017)

Demand-side adoption scenarios (June 2018)

dsgrid model documentation (August 2018)

Supply-side evolution scenarios (~2019)

Methodological approaches (~2019) 

Impacts of electrification (~2020)

Electricity system operations (~2020)

Published Ongoing Under Review

+ Planned research on distribution system and 

utility business model impacts (2020-21)
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Scenarios for end-use electric technology advancement

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70485.pdf

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

100

200

300

Batte 

BNEF 2016

Moawad et al. 2016

DOE-VTO

Interpolated

Slow Advancement

Moderate Advancement

Rapid Advancement

Technology data is foundational to cost-benefit assessments 

• 3 trajectories (slow, moderate, rapid) for buildings and 

transportation

• Literature-based summary of industrial

electrotechnologies
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End-use electric technology cost and performance

Commercial ASHPs 

installed cost and efficiency projections Levelized cost of services (2020 Moderate)
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dsgrid: bottom-up engineering model to estimate 

hourly electricity consumption

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71492.pdf
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Enables a detailed understanding of how equipment 

replacement could impact consumption 

Combines bottom-up 

sector, gap, and loss 

models (Examples 

from 2012 WNC 

region)
Demand-Side Scenarios 

Report

(June 2018) 

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71500.pdf
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Developing demand-side scenarios

OBJECTIVES

Characterize changes to end-use sectors under increasing levels of electrification

Quantify how electrification impacts total electricity demand and consumption 

profiles

APPROACH

Expert judgment adoption projections and consumer choice modeling

Bottom-up stock and energy accounting model (EnergyPATHWAYS)

SCENARIOS

Reference: Least incremental change (~AEO2017)

Medium: Widespread electrification among low(er)-hanging fruit opportunities

High: Transformational electrification 
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Buildings Sector 

Details

• In the combined buildings sector (residential + commercial) in 

2050, electric equipment 

provides up to: • 61% of space heating • 52% of water heating • 94% of cooking services (High scenario; right column)

• Appliance lifetimes limit total 

penetration
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Transportation Sector

Details

• 2050 U.S. transportation fleet (High scenario): • 240 million light-duty plug-in 

electric vehicles

• 7 million medium- and heavy-

duty plug-in electric trucks

• 80 thousand battery electric 

transit buses 

• Together these deliver up to 

76% of miles traveled from 

electricity in 2050
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2050 U.S. electricity demand 

increased by:

• Medium +932 TWh (20%) 

• High +1,782 TWh (38%) 

1.6%/year CAGR (2016-2050)

1.2%/year

0.6%/year

Vehicle electrification dominates incremental 

growth in annual electricity demand 
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Electric space heating has the largest impact on the 

timing and magnitude of peak demand

Note: Summer = June-August, Fall = September-November, Winter = December-February, Spring = March-May
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Key Take-Aways from Demand-Side Scenarios

Electrification is a highly complex research topic with a broad scope:

• Involves interactions among all sectors via numerous technologies

• Crosses many jurisdictions and levels of government/regulators

• Impacts both electric system investment and operational decisions

Quantifying the effects of electrification in a meaningful way requires 

applying high-resolution modeling (across this broad scope):

1. Technological resolution: End-use technology efficiency, load profiles

2. Spatial resolution: Service demand, alignment with generation 

portfolio/resources (e.g., resource sharing)

3. Temporal resolution: Annual, peak, and hourly electricity demand
NREL | 15

Ongoing analysis involves using a detailed electricity system 

model to explore a range of supply-side portfolios

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

Simulates the expansion and operation of the U.S. generation and transmission system Model Improvements

Supply side scenarios are designed to:

1) isolate the impacts of our electrification scenarios and demand-side flexibility 

2) explore the relative impacts of different supply-side assumptions

www.nrel.gov

This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable 

Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided 

by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Programs. 

The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The 

U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. 

Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the 

published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.

Thank you

caitlin.murphy@nrel.gov

/efs

NREL/PR-6A20-73385