United States Air and Energy Engineering

Environmental Protection Research Laboratory

Agency Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

Charles C. Monroe, T. Allan Dean, and William R. Barnard

E AP Project Summary

Multiple Projections System

(MPS) Version 2.0:

User’s Manual

Research and Development EPA/600/SR-94/215 June 1995

The Clean Air Act Amendments of

1990 called for Reasonable Further

Progress (RFP) inventories to be submitted to EPA for the purpose of demonstrating strategies by which a 15%

reduction in volatile organic compound

(VOC) emissions will be achieved over

the years 1990 to 1996. This requirement applies to moderate, serious, severe, and extreme ozone nonattainment

areas. In addition, serious, severe, and

extreme areas must demonstrate at

least a 3% annual average reduction

beginning in 1996 and continuing thereafter until attainment is reached. In order to meet Section 182(b)(1) and

182(c)(2) requirements, state/local air

agencies require a computer system

capable of performing “what if scenario

analysis” and reporting the final results

(i.e., their RFP inventory) to EPA (i.e.,

Aerometric Information Retrieval System, AIRS). This system is based on

the 3% RFP Tracking System that was

developed in FY92/FY93. The 3% RFP

Tracking System is a Windows* application, and enhancements to convert

the 3% RFP Tracking System to a Multiple Projections System (MPS) have

continued to be within the framework

of a Windows application. The system

will support RFP inventories for ozone

and carbon monoxide (CO) and thus

will contain VOC, nitrogen oxide (NOx),

and CO data. The most significant

change from the original 3% RFP Tracking System and MPS is the ability to

submit a “final” projection emissions

inventory in the format required by the

AIRS Facility Subsystem and the AIRS

Area and Mobile Source Subsystem.

This Project Summary was developed

by EPA’s Air and Energy Engineering

Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC, to announce key findings of the research project that is fully

documented in a separate report of the

same title (see Project Report ordering

information at back).

Purpose

The Multiple Projections System (MPS)

is designed to facilitate the projection of

future emissions of ozone precursors, specifically carbon monoxide (CO), volatile

organic compounds (VOCs), and oxides

of nitrogen (NOx

), in any given geographic

area. The MPS gives state/local air agencies a computer system capable of performing “what if scenario analysis” and

reporting the final results (i.e., their Reasonable Further Progress inventory) to

EPA [(i.e., Aerometric Information Retrieval

System (AIRS) Facility Subsystem (FS)

and Area and Mobile Source Subsystem

(AMS)].

System Requirements

The prototype MPS was developed using Superbase 4, a Microsoft Windows

data base package that can be compiled

and distributed as a stand-alone product.

As a Windows product, it requires Windows in order to run. The MPS user is

referred to the Microsoft Windows manual

for information on general Windows operating procedures. Additionally, a computer

with a 386SX or better microprocessor is

* Mention of trade names or commercial products does

not constitute endorsement or recommendation for

use.
2

suggested as the platform on which to run

the prototype. Because the system was

developed using a Windows-based product, it has been configured to run entirely

using a mouse to point and click on various buttons to perform commands or functions. However, all functions can also be

accessed via the keyboard. A hard disk

drive is required to store all input and

output data files. Disk space required depends on the number and size of geographic areas to be studied.

An advantage of developing the system

using a Windows-based product is that

certain tasks can be performed in the

“background,” since Windows can perform

multitasking operations when running on

a 386SX or better platform. Thus, when

the system is performing disk intensive or

processor intensive tasks (such as file imports or emission projection calculations),

the program can be minimized to an icon,

and the user can work on documents in a

word processor or on a spreadsheet until

the task is complete. The system is designed to beep when these tasks are complete, and the icon’s title will reflect that

the task is complete. At that point, the

user can return to the program and continue the analysis.

The system can project emissions out

to the year 2010 in 1-year intervals. In

addition to projecting emissions, the system can make projections in the form of

percent reduction relative to base year

emissions. The system is designed to accept input data from either the AIRS FS or

AMS. Output from the system is in the

form of tables or graphs, which can be

directed to the computer screen or a

printer. Tabular results can also be output

to an ASCII file, allowing the user to subsequently import the reported information

into other software for further analysis (either numeric or graphic). Data contained

in the output file can also be exported to

Lotus 123, dBaseIII, or Excel. As indicated above, the principal output types

are batch transactions in AIRS FS and

AMS format.

Overview

As was stated earlier, the purpose of

the MPS is to facilitate the projection of

future emissions of CO, VOCs, and NOx

.

To this end, the interactive mode of the

MPS was created with the following basic

capabilities:

• import emissions data for 1990 and

control efficiency (CE), rule effectiveness (RE), rule penetration (RP), and

growth factor data for 1990 and later

years;

• import 1990 activity level data, projected growth factors, and projected

emission factor data for on-road mobile sources;

• allow for an alternate base year;

• accept user-specified criteria for selecting imported records;

• allow editing of imported CE, RE, RP,

and growth factor data prior to projection of future emissions;

• project future emissions for the selected records based on these data;

• export projected emissions data as

dBaseIII, Lotus, and Excel files;

• generate tabular reports of projected

emissions out to the year 2010;

• generate graphs depicting projected

emissions out to the year 2010; and

• generate batch transaction files of projected emissions data for import into

FS or AMS.

Necessary input from the user to the

MPS may be apparent from this list. The

user must provide files containing the 1990

emissions data and the CE, RE, RP, and

growth factor data for future years. The

projected growth factor file is generated

by the Economic Growth Analysis System

(E-GAS).

E-GAS is a menu-driven software system, developed by EPA, that can produce

growth factors for the extreme, severe,

serious, and multi-state moderate ozone

nonattainment areas that must, under the

Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990

(CAAAs), use photochemical grid modeling to demonstrate future attainment with

the ozone national ambient air quality standard [Section 182(e)(2)(A)]. Since growth

in source emissions largely depends on

the amount of economic activity growth in

an area, a consistent and reliable set of

growth factors requires forecasts using

consistent Gross National Product forecasts and a consistent methodology for

estimating economic activity in Urban

Airshed Model and Regional Oxidant

Model modeling regions. This consistency

and reliability in forecasts and methodologies is important for two reasons: 1) the

interactive nature of forecasting future

emissions levels and the effects of regulations and corresponding emission control

strategies and 2) state/local air agencies

will be developing control strategies, in

part, based on anticipated growth in these

nonattainment areas in order to meet the

mandated CAAA reductions.

The 1990 emissions data files are retrieved from the appropriate AIRS subsystem. The projected emission factor data

must be compiled by the user. The remainder of the user’s input is supplied via

the screen buttons and mouse or keyboard. After the data have been imported,

the user is then presented with a series of

screens, each of which allows the user to

select a value for a single parameter (e.g.,

pollutant). The MPS uses these parameters (which also include geographic area

and projection year) as criteria for selecting the imported records for which projections are to be made. Then the user may

edit the imported CE, RE, RP, and growth

factor data; at this point the MPS can

project the future emissions. Equations 1

and 2 are used to forecast projected area

sources (adjusted base year inventory).

 UE = DCONE + [1-(CE * RE * RP)] (1)

where:

UE = Daily Uncontrolled

Emissions

DCONE = Daily Controlled

Emissions

CE = Adjusted Base Year

Control Efficiency

RE = Adjusted Base Year

Rule Effectiveness

RP = Adjusted Base Year

Rule Penetration (not

applicable to point

sources)

PCONE =

 UE * [1-(PCE * PRE * PRP)] * GF (2)

where:

PCONE = Projected Year Actual

Emissions

PCE = Projected Year Control

Efficiency

PRE = Projected Year Rule

Effectiveness

PRP = Projected Year Rule

Penetration (not

applicable to point

sources)

GF = Growth Factor
3

Equation 3 is used to forecast projected

emissions for on-road and nonroad mobile sources:

FPE =

 BVMT (or BNRAR) * EF * CF * GF (3)

where:

FPE = EPA Forecasted

Projected Emissions

BVMT = Base Vehicle Miles

Traveled by Vehicle

Class by Calendar Year

EF = Emission Factor (output

of Mobile Model)

CF = Conversion Factor

(grams to pounds or

tons)

GF = Growth Factor

Calculated by E-GAS

BNRAR = Base Nonroad Activity

Rate

These projected data, which are stored

in a Superbase file, can be exported as a

Lotus, dBase, or Excel file. Using screen

buttons, the user can generate several

types of reports, graphs, and files based

on the data in the Superbase file.
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Charles C. Monroe, T. Allan Dean, and William R. Barnard are with E. H. Pechan

and Associates, Inc., Durham, NC 27707.

E. Sue Kimbrough is the EPA Project Officer (see below).

The complete report, entitled “Multiple Projections System (MPS) Version 2.0:

User’s Manual,” includes diskettes (Order No. PB95-503223; Cost: $90.00;

subject to change) will be available only from:

National Technical Information Service

5285 Port Royal Road

Springfield, VA 22161

Telephone: 703-487-4650

The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:

Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

• •

United States

Environmental Protection Agency

Center for Environmental Research Information

Cincinnati, OH 45268

EPA/600/SR-94/215

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