EIGHT-HOUR OZONE PLAN FOR

THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA

JUNE 2007
EIGHT-HOUR OZONE PLAN

FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA

Prepared by:

Maricopa Association of Governments

June 2007

Technical Assistance Provided by:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality

Arizona Department of Transportation

Maricopa County Air Quality Department

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
CHAPTER

EIGHT-HOUR OZONE PLAN

FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY , ES-1

ONE INTRODUCTION 1-1

NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARD FOR OZONE 1-2

CHARACTERISTICS AND HEALTH EFFECTS OF OZONE 1-2

NONATTAINMENT AREA 1-2

HISTORY 1-4

REQUIRED COMPONENTS OF THE ATTAINMENT PLAN 1-5

TWO DESCRIPTION OF THE NONATTAINMENT AREA 2-1

NONATTAINMENT AREA GEOGRAPHY 2-1

POPULA1-ION 2-3

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM 2-3

CONGESTION MANAGEMENT PROCESS 2-11

PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEM 2-13

THREE ASSESSMENT OF AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS 3-1

OZONE FORMATION 3-1

SOURCES OF OZONE PRECURSOR EMISSIONS 3-2

AIR QUALITY MONITORING DATA AND TREND ANALYSIS 3-7
BGH~HOUROZONEPLAN

FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)

CHAPTER PAGE

FOUR THE ADOPTED PLAN 4-1

MEASURES USED FOR NUMERIC CREDIT 4-2

CONTINGENCY MEASURES 4-7

MEASURES THAT IMPROVE AIR QUALITY, WHICH WERE NOT USED

FOR NUMERIC CREDIT 4-10

THE NEXT CHAPTER 4-10

FIVE ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRA"nON 5-1

ATTAINMENT DATE 5-1

ATTAINMENT MEASURES 5-2

EMISSIONS INVENTORIES 5-5

ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION 5-8

ONROAD MOBILE EMISSIONS BUDGETS FOR CONFORMITY 5-13

CONTINGENCY MEASURES 5-15

REASONABLE FURTHER PROGRESS 5-17

CONCLUSIONS 5-18

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. R-1

ii
EIGHT-HOUR OZONE PLAN

FOR "rHE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A

Exhibit 1:

Exhibit 2:

APPENDIX B

2002 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors for

the Maricopa County, Arizona, Nonattainment Area. June

2004

Technical Support Document for Ozone Modeling in Support

of the Eight-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan for the Maricopa

Nonattainment Area. June 2007

Exhibit 1: Public Hearing Process Documentation

Exhibit 2: Certification of Adoption

iii
EIGHT-HOUR OZONE PLAN

FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE PAGE

1-1 Maricopa County VOC RACT Rules and SIP Status 1-11

2-1 Total Resident Population by Municipal Planning Area 2-4

2-2 2006 Average Weekday Vehicle Miles Traveled for the Eight-Hour Ozone

Nonattainment Area 2-5

3-1 Emissions from All Source Categories Included in the 2002 Periodic Emissions

Inventory for Ozone Precursors 3-4

3-2 Ozone Monitoring Stations 3-8

3-3 Eight-Hour Ozone Monitoring Data Summary, Three-Year Average of the Fourth

High,2006 3-13

3-4 Eight-Hour Ozone Monitoring Data Summary, Three-Year Average of the Fourth

High,2002-2006 3-14

5-1 Attainment Measures Used for Numeric Credit 5-3

5-2 2008 Emission Reductions by Individual Attainment Measure for the Eight-Hour

Ozone Modeling Domain (4 km) 5-4

5-3 VOC Emissions in the Ozone Modeling Domain for June 2002 and 2008 5-6

5-4 NOx Emissions in the Ozone Modeling Domain for June 2002 and 2008 5-7

5-5 Site-Specific Eight-Hour Ozone Design Values for the June 2008 Episode .5-11

5-6 Emission Reductions by Individual Contingency Measure in the Eight Hour

Ozone Modeling Domain 5-16

iv
EIGHT-HOUR OZONE PLAN

FOR "rHE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE PAGE

ES-1 Violations of the Eight-Hour Ozone Standard in the Maricopa Nonattainment

Area ES-2

ES-2 VOC and NOx Emissions on June 6, 2002 ES-3

ES-3 VOC Reductions by Individual Attainment Measure in June 2008 ES-4

ES-4 NOx Reductions by Individual Attainment Measure in June 2008 ES-5

ES-5 VOC and NOx Emissions with Attainment Measures in June 2008 . . . . . .. ES-6

ES-6 VOC Reductions by Individual Contingency Measure ES-8

ES-7 NOx Reductions by Individual Contingency Measure ES-8

ES-8 Predicted Eight-Hour Ozone Concentrations in June 2008 (in ppb) ES-9

1-1 Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area 1-3

2-1 Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area and Municipal Planning Areas 2-2

2-2 Regional Average Weekday Travel Projections by Facility Type for the EightHour Ozone Nonattainment Area 2-7

2-3 Draft 2006 Base Year Network: PM Peak Period Hours of Level of Service E & F

.............. " 2-8

2-4 Draft 2028 RTP Network: PM Peak Period Hours of Level of Service E & F .. 2-9

2-5 Freeways/Highways 2-10

2-6 New/Improved Arterials 2-12

2-7 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) 2-16

2-8 Super Grid Bus System 2-17

2-9 Light Rail Transit (LRT)/High Capacity Transit 2-18

3-1 Sources of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions 3-3

3-2 Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area and Ozone Monitoring Sites 3-9

3-3 Eight-Hour Ozone Trends (1999-2006) 3-11

3-4 Violations of the Eight-Hour Ozone Standard in the Maricopa Nonattainment

Area 3-12

5-1 VOC Emissions for June 6, 2002 5-6

5-2 VOC Emissions for a Thursday in June 2008 5-6

5-3 NOx Emissions for June 6, 2002 5-7

5-4 NOx Emissions for a Thursday in June 2008 5-7

5-5 Isopleth Plot of the Modeled RRFs for the June Episode 5-10

5-6 Isopleth Plot of the Design Values for the June 2008 Episode (Max =84 ppb)

.................................................................. 5-12

v
EIGHT-HOUR OZONE PLAN

FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

On June 15, 2004, EPA designated a 4,880 square mile area located mainly in Maricopa

and Pinal Counties as an eight-hour ozone nonattainment area. The Clean Air Act requires

that a plan be submitted to EPA by June 15, 2007 that shows attainment of the eight-hour

ozone standard in the Maricopa nonattainment area. The plan must demonstrate that the

eight-hour ozone standard will be met by the ozone season of 2008, with measures that

have been implemented before the ozone season of 2008.

The plan uses photochemical modeling to show that the standard will be attained in2008

with federal, state, and local control measures that have already been implemented in the

region. The modeling results are supported by a downward trend in monitored ozone

concentrations. As Figure ES-1 indicates, the eight-hour ozone standard has not been

violated at any monitor in the Maricopa nonattainment area for the past two years (Le.,

2005 and 2006).

Ozone is formed by chemical reactions among volatile organic compounds (VOC), nitrogen

oxides (NOx), and other air pollutants, in the presence of heat and sunlight. The ozone

precursor emissions on the highest ozone day during the June 2002 episode are

summarized in Figure ES-2. The major source of VOC is natural vegetation (Le.,

biogenics). Onroad mobile and area sources each contribute another 13 percent of the

total VOC emissions. Motor vehicles are the largest source of nitrogen oxide (NOx),

contributing nearly two-thirds of the emissions. Nonroad engine exhaust is responsible for

another 27 percent. Together, onroad and nonroad mobile sources produce 90 percent

of the total NOx emissions.

To demonstrate attainment by the ozone season of 2008, the plan assumes emission

reduction credit for seven attainment measures. Figures ES-3 and ES-4 show the VOC

and NOx reductions, respectively, for the individual attainment measures in June 2008.

All of the attainment measures represent legally binding commitments in EPA-approved

air quality plans that have already been implemented in the Maricopa area. Figure ES-5

shows the VOC and NOx emissions in June 2008 with the attainment measures.

ES-1
FIGURE ES-1

VIOLATIONS OF THE EIGHT-HOUR OZONE STANDARD IN THE

MARICOPA COUNTY NONATTAINMENT AREA

10 .--,----------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2005

• V' 0 i r--

2002 2003 2004 2006

Year

1999 2000 2001

o

8

en

7 '-

I 0......

'c

0

6 0)

c

=

eu

0

:>

- 4 0

'-

Q)

.0

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Z 2

ES-2
FIGURE ES-2

voe AND NOx EMISSIONS ON JUNE 6, 2002

Total voe =696.13 mtlday

Point

2%

Area

13%

M:>bile

13%

Total NOx = 291.82 mtlday

Biogenics Point Area

3% 4% 3%

NonRoad

27%

M:>bile

63%

ES-3
FIGURE ES-3

VOC REDUCTIONS BY INDIVIDUAL ATTAINMENT MEASURE IN JUNE 2008

A1ased-in 8Tission

TestOJtpoints

cevelop Intelligent

Transportation Systerrs

AJle 358: R)lystyrene

Foam~ration

Coordinate Traffic

Signal Systerrs <0.1%

1.2%

Tougher B1forcerrent of

Vehicle Registrations

Ole TirreWaiver from

Vehicle 8Tissions Test

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1% (incr,ease)

Surmer Fuel Reforl11Jlation:

CaJ~ornia A1ase 2 and Federal

R1ase IIReforl11Jlated

Gasoline wtth 7 psi fromMly 1

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

• Percent Reduction inVOC Emissions

ES-4
FIGURE ES·4

NOx REDUCTIONS BY INDIVIDUAL ATTAINMENT MEASURE IN JUNE 2008

SumrerFuel Peforrrulation:

QlIffornia A1ase 2 and Federal

A1ase IIR3forrrulated

Gasoline with 7 psifromWay 1

A1ased-in EiTissioo

Test OJtpoints

cevelop htelligent

Transportatioo Systerrs

Q:lordinate Traffic

Signal Systerrs

Tougher B1forcerrent cA

Vehicle A3gistratiorlS

<0.1%

<0.1%

3.5%

01e lirre WWerfrom

Vehicle EiTissiorlS Test <0.1%

0.0% 1.00/0 2.0010 3.0010 4.00/0 5.00/0

• Percent Reduction in NOx Enissions

ES-5
FIGURE ES-5

voe AND NOx EMISSIONS WITH ATTAINMENT MEASURES IN JUNE 2008

Total voe =699.75 mtlday

Biogenics

65%

n Road

8%

Biogenics

Total NOx =286.93 mtlday

Point

11~rea

5% Non Road

30%

ES-6
As required by the Clean Air Act, the attainment plan also includes contingency measures.

Figures ES-6 and ES-7 show the VOC and NOx emission reductions, respectively,

attributable to the individual contingency measures. Credit for the contingency measures

was not assumed in modeling attainment in 2008. The contingency measures have all been

implemented, as allowed by EPA, in order to ensure that the standard is met as

expeditiously as possible. Early implementation of the contingency measures serves to

reinforce the emission reductions credited to the attainment measures. EPA also allows

federal measures to be contingency measures if the credit for these measures is not

needed for attainment.

The photochemical grid modeling was conducted fO( multi-day high ozone episodes that

occurred in June 2002, July 2002, and August 2001. These three episodes were selected

because they represent a range of meteorological conditions and diurnal and spatial

emission patterns that can lead to high ozone concentrations in the nonattainment area

[MAG, 2005]. Attainment was modeled by applying the base year meteorology and diurnal

and spatial pattern of emissions on the episode days to projected 2008 emissions. The

attainment demonstration assumed emission reduction credit for the seven attainment

measures, which have all been implemented. Figure ES-8 is a contour plot of the modeled

eight-hour ozone concentrations for the June 2008 episode.

All of the predicted values in the contour plot are 84 ppb (0.084 ppm) or less. The predicted

ozone values for the July and August 2008 episodes are also 84 ppb (0.084 ppm) or less.

Therefore, the modeling indicates that the eight-hour ozone standard is attained for all three

episodes in 2008.

Since the peak modeled ozone values were so close to the standard, a screening test and

weight of evidence analysis were performed to supplement the modeling results. The

screening test indicated that areas not near monitors would also attain the standard for all

three episodes. The weight of evidence analysis also concluded that the eight-hour ozone

standard will be met during the ozone season of 2008, based on downward trends in

concentrations of ozone precursors and ozone concentrations.

The attainment plan establishes onroad mobile source emissions budgets for transportation

conformity. The 2008 conformity budqets for the eight-hour ozone nonattainment area are

67.9 metric tons per day for VOC and 138.2 metric tons per day for NOx. After these

budgets are found to be adequate or approved by EPA as part of the attainment plan, they

will replace the interim eight-hour ozone emissions tests currently being used in conformity

analyses.

ES-7
FIGURE ES-6

VOC REDUCTIONS BY INDIVIDUAL CONTINGENCY MEASURE

FederalNonroad

Equipment Standards

8<:pansion of Area A

Boundaries (H.B.2538)

Gross Polluter Optionfor

VM A"ogram Waivers

Increase Waiver Repair

Unit Options

0.0%

0.0%

2.1%

FederalHeavy Duty Diesel

Vehicle Standards 0.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

• PercentReduction in VOC Errissions

FIGURE ES-7

NOx REDUCTIONS BY INDIVIDUAL CONTINGENCY MEASURE

Federall'blroad

6:juiprrent Standards

Federal Haavy 0Jty [lesal

Vehicle Standards

Expansion of AreaA

Boundaries (HB.2538)

5. Yo

hcrease Waiver Rlpair

LinitQJtions <0.1%

<?loss RXIuter QJtion for

<0.1% VMA"ogramWaivers

0.0"/0 1.0"/0 2.0"/0 3.0"/0 4.0"/0 5.0"/0

• Percent Reduction inNOxEmissions

ES-8
FIGURE ES-8

PREDICTED EIGHT-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRATIONS IN JUNE 2008 (IN PPB )

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BP

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3740000

3720000

3700000

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3680000

76

77

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81

3680000

300000 320000 34000G 36000G 3BOOOG 40000G 420000 440000 460000 480000

ES-9
CHAPTER ONE

IN"rRODUCTION

According to the Clean Air Act, the Maricopa eight-hour ozone nonattainment area must

submit a plan to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by June 15, 2007 that

demonstrates attainment of the eight-hour ozone standard by June 15, 2009. The

photochemical grid modeling, supporting technical analyses, and documentation for the

attainment demonstration have been prepared by the Maricopa Association of

Governments (MAG), with technical assistance from the Arizona Department of

Environmental Quality (ADEQ), Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT), Maricopa

County Air Quality Department (MCAQD), and EPA.

In 1978, the Governor of Arizona designated MAG as the lead air quality planning agency

for Maricopa County. Together with the State, MAG is responsible for determining which

elements of the State Implementation Plan (SIP) will be planned, implemented, and

enforced by the State, Maricopa County, and local governments in Arizona. In 1992, the

Arizona Legislature recertified MAG as the regional air quality planning agency. MAG

coordinates with ADEQ, ADOT, and MCAQD in developing the plans necessary to attain

and maintain the national standards.

This Eight-Hour Ozone Plan will be reviewed and approved by the MAG Air Quality

Technical Advisory Committee, the MAG Management Committee, and the MAG Regional

Council before it is submitted to ADEQ and EPA as a SIP revision. The MAG Air Quality

Technical Advisory Committee was established in 1995 with representatives from State,

county and local governments, private industry, environmental groups, and the public-atlarge. The Air Quality Technical Advisory Committee makes recommendations to the MAG

Management Committee on air quality plans, projects, funding and other pertinent issues.

The MAG Management Committee is comprised of managers from each of the MAG

member agencies that include twenty-five cities and towns, the Fort McDowell, Salt River

Pima-Maricopa, and Gila River Indian Communities, Maricopa County, and the Arizona

Department of Transportation. The MAG Management Committee makes

recommendations to the MAG Regional Council. The Regional Council is the MAG

decision-making body and is composed of elected officials from the MAG member

agencies.

MAG and ADEQ will also conduct public hearings on this plan in accordance with federal

requirements. The public hearings will be held at the MAG Offices, 302 N. 1st Avenue, in

the Saguaro Room, on June 1, 2007 at 5:30 p.m. and June 4, 2007 at 5:30 p.m. All public

comments and responses will be compiled in Appendix B, Exhibit 1.

1-1
I\JATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARD FOR OZONE

On July 18, 1997, EPA promulgated a new eight-hour ozone standard that was more

stringent than the one-hour ozone standard. EPA subsequently revoked the one-hour

ozone standard, effective June 15, 2005. Compliance with the eight-hour standard of 0.08

ppm is determined by averaging the annual fourth highest eight-hour ozone concentration

over three years. EPA requires that the monitored eight-hour ozone values be rounded to

the nearest 0.01 ppm, which means that a violation occurs when the three year average

of the fourth highest monitored concentration is 0.085 ppm or greater. There have been

no violations of the eight-hour ozone standard at any monitor in the Maricopa

nonattainment area since 2004.

CHARACTERISTICS AND HEALTH EFFECTS OF OZONE

Ozone is not directly emitted by a source, but is produced by chemical reactions among

volatile organic compounds (VOC). nitrogen oxides (NOx), and other air pollutants, in the

presence of heat and sunlight. VOC and NOx are emitted by onroad vehicles and nonroad

engines. Other sources of these ozone precursor emissions include industrial,

manufacturing, and electrical power generation facilities; dry cleaners, service stations,

architectural coatings, consumer and commercial solvent use; and natural vegetation.

Peak concentrations of ozone typically occur in the urban area from May through

September when high temperatures are conducive to the formation of ozone. Also, due

to prevailing afternoon winds, ozone precursors and ozone are transported to the

mountainous areas east and north of the Maricopa nonattainment area where elevated

levels of ozone may occur.

Ozone irritates the lungs and repeated exposure may cause permanent lung damage.

Symptoms of ozone exposure may include wheezing, coughing, and pain when taking a

deep breath. Children, persons with pre-existing respiratory conditions such as asthma,

and others who are active outdoors when ozone levels are high are most affected by the

adverse health effects of ozone. Even low levels of ozone may cause aggravated asthma,

reduced lung capacity, and make persons more susceptible to respiratory illnesses like

pneumonia and bronchitis.

NONATTAII\JMENT AREA

The Maricopa eight-hour ozone nonattainment area encompasses 4,880 square miles in

central Arizona. The nonattainment area is shown in Figure 1-1. The area contains

portions of twenty-five cities and towns, the Fort McDowell and Salt River Pima-Maricopa

Indian Communities, and unincorporated areas under the jurisdiction of Maricopa County.

The southeastern portion of the nonattainment area also includes Apache Junction area

in Pinal County. The eight-hour ozone nonattainment area does not include the Gila River

Indian Community.

According to a Special U.S. Census, the population of Maricopa County was 3.7 million in

2005. Most of these residents live and work within the nonattainment area boundaries.

1-2
Figure 1-1 Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area

\01.. ......,_ __. _ ......__. .._

- , - .__.. __

---.-....., ....... .~--=-r--' ...._-..... _ua ..-. 11... ..._

Legend

D Carbon Monoxidlo Mai" t~nce Af@.a

D B-Hour Ozone Nonatta~ Area

D PM10 Nol'\a:tammentArea

r-lArea A (H 82538 - 200 1)

O Mancopa County

- ExabngFr_ay

- PI.1nned Fre-ewlt'(

MuniOpai P\.iInning mas shaded

JI

.....!:""-!"'''''!.- :" . ,

AIR QUALITY NONATTAINMENT

AND MAINTENANCE AREAS FOR THE

:...t- . c MARIC ~PA COUNTY AREA, ARIZONA

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1-3
The nonattainment area is located in the Salt River Valley at 1,100 feet above mean sea

level and is almost completely surrounded by mountains. The climate in the nonattainment

area is arid continental, with temperatures ranging from a mean of 52 degrees Fahrenheit

in January to 91 degrees, in July. The sun shines 86 percent of the time and the annual

rainfall is about 7.44 inches. In general, the prevailing wind direction is from ElSE to

W/SW, although the winds can shift in the afternoon to a more westerly direction.

HISTORY

In accordance with the Clean Air Act, an urbanized portion of Maricopa County was

formally designated as a nonattainment area for one-hour ozone in 1978. The boundaries

of the one-hour ozone nonattainment area are shown in Figure 1-1. Under the 1990 Clean

Air Act Amendments, the nonattainment area was classified as Moderate for ozone. In

order to meet the Moderate area requirements, the MAG 1993 Ozone Plan for the

Maricopa County Area was submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency by

November 15, 1993. An Addendum to this Plan containing additional control measures

was submitted to EPA in March 1994.

On April 13, 1994, EPA issued an incompleteness 'finding on the 1993 Ozone Plan and

Addendum because the plan failed to include, in fully adopted and enforceable form, all

of the measures relied upon in the 15 percent demonstration. This action started a two

year FIP clock under CAA Section 110(c) for EPA to promulgate a 15 percent Rate of

Progress Federal Implementation Plan. In November 1994 the modeling attainment

demonstration for the 1993 Ozone Plan and Addendum was submitted to EPA with a

revision to the modeling attainment demonstration following in April 1995. The MAG 1993

Ozone Plan and Addendum, as well as the attainment demonstration, was found complete

by EPA on May 12, 1995.

Modeling contained in the Revision to the Modeling Attainment Demonstration for the MAG

1993 Ozone Plan for the Maricopa County Area and Addendum concluded that reductions

in NOx would increase ozone concentrations and therefore not contribute to attainment of

the ozone standard. EPA finalized approval of a NOx exemption petition for the Maricopa

County Nonattainment Area on April 19, 1995. Section 182 of the CAA allows for an

exemption when reductions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) would not contribute to ozone

attainment.

On November 6, 1997, the nonattainment area was reclassified to Serious due to failure

to attain the ozone standard by November 15, 1996. The Serious Area reclassification was

effective on February 13, 1998. Following the outcome of a lawsuit filed to require that

EPA enforce the Federal Implementation Plan provisions in Section 110(c), EPA

promulgated a Federal Implementation Plan for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress

requirement on May 27, 1998.

On December 14, 2000, the Serious Area Ozone State Implementation Plan (SIP) for

Maricopa County was submitted to EPA by the Arizona Department of Environmental

1-4
Quality. In accordance with Section 110, a completeness 'finding on the Serious Area

Ozone SIP was deemed by operation of law since a determination was not made by EPA

within six months of receipt of the plan. The Serious Area Ozone SIP was approved by

EPA on June 14,2005.

On May 30, 2001, EPA determined that the Maricopa County nonattainment area had

attained the one-hour ozone standard. The attainment determination was effective June

29, 2001. EPA also determined that the serious area requirements for reasonable further

progress, attainment determinations, and contingencymeasures for the one-hour standard

would not apply as long as the area continued to attain the standard.

The MAG One-Hour Ozone Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan was submitted

to EPA in May 2004. On June 14,2005, EPA approved the One-Hour Ozone Maintenance

Plan. On June 15, 2005, EPA revoked the one-hour ozone standard, which was less

stringent than the new eight-hour standard.

On April 30, 2004, EPA published the final rule designating eight-hour ozone

nonattainment areas, effective June 15, 2004. The Maricopa eight-hour ozone

nonattainment area was classified as "Basic" under Part D, Subpart 1, of the Clean Air Act,

with an attainment date of June 15, 2009. The attainment demonstration for the Maricopa

nonattainment area must be submitted no later than 3 years after the effective date of

designation, which is June 15, 2007 [EPA, 2005b].

REQUIRED COMPONENTS OF THE ATTAINMENT PLAN

Section 110(a)(2) of the Clean Air Act identifies the following general requirements for

State Implementation Plans (SIPs). The eight-hour ozone attainment plan for the Maricopa

nonattainment area will be a revision to the Arizona SIP.

(A) Include enforceable measures and schedules necessary to show compliance (1)

(B) Monitor and compile data on ambient air quality (2)

(C) Provide a program to enforce measures in (A) and regulate stationary sources

(1 ),(4)

(D) Prohibit sources 'from emitting pollutants that would contribute significantly to

nonattainment, interfere with maintenance of the standard, or interfere with

Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) or visibility in other states (3)

(E) Provide assurances that there are adequate resources to implement the plan,

nothing in the SIP is otherwise prohibited by law, and the State has responsibility

for ensuring adequate implementation (1)

(F) Stationary source emissions monitoring and reporting (4)

(G) Provide for emergency powers authority (5)

(H) Provide for the revisions to the plan (6)

(I) Meet the applicable requirements of Part D for nonattainment areas (10)

(J) Meet the requirements of Section 121 (consultation) (9); Section 127 (public

notification) (7), and part C (PSD and visibility) (3),(4)

1-5
(K) Perform air quality modeling (8)

(L) Permitting fees for major stationary sources (4)

(M) Consultation and participation by local political subdivisions affected by the SIP (9)

The numbers following each SIP requirement listed above refer to the subsection below

that describes how the requirements of Section 110(a)(2) are met by this Plan.

(1) Enforcement, Adequate Resources, and Responsibility for Adequate

Implementation

The eight-hour ozone attainment demonstration relies on State, County and local

commitments to implement control measures in the Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan

[MAG, 2001], the One-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan [MAG, 2004], and the Serious Area

Ozone SIP [ADEQ, 2000]. Sections 110(a)(2)(A), (C) and (E), concerning plan

enforcement and implementation requirements, are addressed in Chapter Eight (page 8-

146) and Chapter Eleven (page 11-1) of the Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan. In order

to comply with these sections, a State law was passed in 1992 which provides an approach

for assurances that State and local committed measures will be adequately implemented

(AR.S. Section 49-406 I. and J.).

Regarding committed measures, AR.S. Section 49-406 G. (passed by the Legislature in

1992) requires that each agency which commits to implement any control measure

contained in the State Implementation Plan must describe the commitment in a resolution.

The resolution must be adopted by the appropriate governing body of the agency. State

law also requires the entity to specify the following information in the resolutions: (1) its

authority for implementing the limitation or measure as provided in statute, ordinance, or

rule; (2) a program for the enforcement of the limitation or measure; and (3) the level of

personnel and funding allocated to the implementation of the measure.

Chapter Eleven of the Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan includes resolutions from the

MAG member agencies and other implementing entities. The resolutions indicate specific

commitments to implement various control strategies. Generally, the authorities of cities

and towns to implement the types of measures that they have committed to in their

respective resolutions are provided under AR.S. § 9-240 Powers of Common Council.

The general authorities of the County to implement the measures in the commitments are

provided under A.R.S. § 11-251 and AR.S. § 49-478. Copies of these local and county

government authorities are included in Chapter Eleven of the Revised Serious Area

Carbon Monoxide Plan.

If any person (includes State, County, local governments, regional agencies, and other

entities) fails to implement a committed measure, the County would file an action in

Superior Court to have the Court order that the measure be implemented. Likewise, the

Director of the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality will backstop the County if it

fails to implement a committed measure or if the County fails to backstop the local

governments and regional agencies (see Appendix C, Exhibit 2, Revised Serious Area

1-6
Carbon Monoxide Plan).

(2) Monitoring and Compiling of Data on Ambient Air Quality

Section 11 0(a)(2)(B) establishes the requirement to monitor, compile, and analyze ambient

air quality data. Appendix A, Exhibit 2 of the Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan contains

the 1992 Memorandum of Agreement for Air Quality Planning [MAG, 2001]. This

agreement identifies Maricopa County and the Arizona Department of Environmental

Quality as having the primary roles for air quality monitoring, including special purpose air

quality and meteorological monitoring for plan development.

Chapter Four of the Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan (page 4-5) provides additional

evidence that the monitoring requirements for the region are being met through the efforts

of Maricopa County and the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality. Arizona

Statutes 49-406. Nonattainment area plan and 49-424. Duties of Department provide the

regulatory basis for air quality monitoring in the State and any nonattainment areas.

Additional information on quality assurance program for the air quality monitoring network

operated in the Maricopa nonattainment area is provided below.

Ozone data for the Maricopa County area has been collected and quality-assured in

accordance with 40 CFR, Part 58, EPA's "Quality Assurance Handbook for Air Pollution

Measurement Systems, Volume II", the Maricopa County and the Arizona Department of

Environmental Quality QA/QC Procedures and Quality Assurance Project Plans. The data

are recorded in the EPA Air Quality Systems (AQS) database and are also available for

public review in air quality monitoring network reviews and assessments produced annually

by the Maricopa County Air Quality Department and the Arizona Department of

Environmental Quality.

(3) Provisions to Prohibit Sources from Impacting Air Quality in Other States

Section 110(a)(2)(D) requires that a SIP contain adequate provisions prohibiting any

source or other type of emissions activity within the State from emitting any air pollutant in

amounts which will contribute significantly to nonattainment in, or interfere with

maintenance by, any other State with respect to any such national primary or secondary

ambient air quality standard; or interfere with measures required to be included in the

applicable implementation plan for any other State under Part C to prevent significant

deterioration of air quality or to protect visibility. The Arizona Department of Environmental

Quality recently submitted to EPA the Arizona Interstate Transport SIP to address the

requirements of section 110(a)(2)(D)(i) of the Clean Air Act.

Visibility, as defined in Part C of the Clean Air Act, is currently addressed through a Federal

Implementation Plan for the State of Arizona. The lack of proximity to another state makes

it unlikely that ozone emissions are transported 'from the nonattainment area to another

state.

1-7
(4) Preconstruction Review for All New and Modified Stationary Sources; Stationary

Source Emissions Monitoring; and Permitting Fees for Major Stationary Sources

The requirements of Sections 11 0(a)(2)(C), (F),and (L) concerning preconstruction review,

emissions monitoring, and permitting fees for stationary sources are addressed by the

State in Title 49. Article 2. State Air Pollution Control, and Article 3. County Air Pollution

Control, of the Arizona Revised Statutes. Compliance with this requirement is the

responsibility of the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality or applicable county

agency. Appendix A, Exhibit 2 of the Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan contains the

1992 Memorandum of Agreement for Air Quality Planning [MAG, 2001]. This agreement

identifies Maricopa County as having the lead role for stationary source emissions control.

Following adoption by the State, Maricopa County adopted new source review regulations

designed to prevent significant deterioration of air quality, patterned after the State

regulations. The Maricopa County Regulations contain requirements for obtaining

installation permits for new major sources located in nonattainment, attainment, or

unclassifiable areas. Both the State and Maricopa County new source review regulations

are currently in effect.

The Maricopa County Air Pollution Control Regulations contain the regulations that

constitute the legal basis for control of air pollution sources in Maricopa County, Arizona.

They are adopted to implement the policy set forth in Title 49 of the Arizona Revised

Statutes and to fulfill the State's responsibilities under the federal Clean Air Act and its

amendments to provide a legally enforceable State Implementation Plan for the attainment

and maintenance of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

Applicable Maricopa County Air Pollution Control Regulations include; Rule 240 - Permits

for New Major Sources and Major Modifications to Existing Major Sources, Rule 241 -

Permits for New Sources and Modifications to Existing Major Sources, and Rule 245 -

Continuous Source Emission Monitoring.

(5) Provide for Authority Comparable to that in Section 303 for Emergency Powers

Section 11 0(a)(2)(G) addresses the authority for emergency powers. Under Section 303

of the Clean Air Act, upon receipt of evidence that a pollution source or combination of

sources (including moving sources) is presenting an imminent and substantial

endangerment to public health or welfare, orthe environment, the EPA Administrator may

bring suit on behalf of the United States in the appropriate United States district court to

immediately restrain any person causing or contributing to the alleged pollution to stop the

emission of air pollutants causing or contributing to such pollution or to take such other

action as may be necessary. If it is not practicable to assure prompt protection ot public

health or welfare or the environment by commencement of such a civil action, the

Administrator may issue such orders as may be necessary to protect public health or

welfare or the environment.

1-8
Emergency powers for the State of Arizona are addressed under A.R.S. 49-465. Imminent

and substantial endangerment, 49-462.07 Violation; injunctive relief, and 49-465 Air

Pollution Emergency.

(6) Provide for Plan Revisions to Account for Changes to the NAAQS or When a Plan

is Found Substantially Inadequate to Attain a Standard

Section 110(a)(2)(H) requires a plan revision to take into account revisions of such national

primary or secondary ambient air quality standard, or the availability of improved or more

expeditious methods of attaining such standard, and whenever the Administrator finds that

the plan is substantially inadequate to attain the national ambient air quality standard.

A.R.S. 49-404 State Implementation Plan and 49-406 NonattainmentArea Plan provisions

provide for State, county, and local agencies to revise the SIP to account for changes to

air quality standards or if a plan is found to be inadequate. The applicable documentation

for making plan revisions can be found in the Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan,

Appendix A, Exhibit 2, 1992 Memorandum of Agreement for Air Quality Planning [MAG,

2001].

(7) Meet the Applicable Requirements of Section 127 (Relating to Public Notification)

Section 110(a)(2)(J) requires a plan revision to meet the applicable requirements of

Section 127 relating to Public Notification. Public notification procedures followed for the

Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan are documented in the section, Public Participation

in the Preparation of the MAG 1999 Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan and MAG 1999

Serious Area PM-10 Plan, in Chapter Ten (page 10-3) [MAG, 2001].

(8) Air Quality Modeling

Section 110(a)(2)(K) provides for the performance of such air quality modeling as the

Administrator may prescribe for the purpose of predicting the effect on ambient air quality

of any emissions of any air pollutant for which the Administrator has established a national

ambient air quality standard, and the submission, upon request, of data related to such air

quality modeling to the Administrator.

Chapter Five of this Plan describes the photochemical grid modeling that was conducted

to demonstrate attainment of the standard by June 15, 2009. The ozone modeling is

described in detail in the Technical Support Document (TSD) for this plan. Chapter Five

describes key elements of the ozone modeling, including the attainment date, attainment

measures, emissions inventories, and modeled attainment demonstration.

(9) Consultation and Participation by Local Political Subdivisions Affected by the SIP

Evidence for consultation and participation by local political subdivisions affected by the

SIP can be found in Chapter Ten, Public Participation in the Serious Carbon Monoxide

1-9
Plan (page 10-1) [MAG, 2001]. The decision-making structure of the MaricopaAssociation

of Governments includes twenty-five cities and towns; the Fort McDowell, Salt River PimaMaricopa, and Gila River Indian Communities; Maricopa County; and the Arizona

Department of Transportation. These entities are voting members of the MAG Regional

Council which is the decision making body of MAG. The Regional Council adopts the

regional air quality plans.

In addition, the MAG member agencies participate in the development of the regional air

quality plans through participation in the MAG Air Quality Technical Advisory Committee,

MAG Management Committee, workshops, and public hearings. For several years, the

MAG member agencies have submitted commitments to implement a wide variety of air

quality measures which are included in the plans that have been approved by the

Environmental Protection Agency.

Appendix A, Exhibit 2 -1992 Memorandum of Agreement for Air Quality Planning from the

Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan details the consultation and participation process

used in developing the air quality plans.

(10) Meet the Applicable Requirements of Part 0

Part 0, Subpart 1, Section 172(c) of the Clean Air Act specifies the Nonattainment Plan

Provisions applicable to this Eight-Hour Ozone Plan. The Plan meets each of the

provisions, as discussed below.

A. Implement all reasonably available control measures as expeditiously as practicable

In accordance with Section 172(c)(1), the state is required to submit a revision that

implements RACM as expeditiously as practicable, including such reductions as may be

obtained through the adoption, at a minimum, of RACT. Since the Maricopa nonattainment

area is designated as a subpart 1 area for ozone, and expects to show attainment by 2009,

RACT is deemed to be met with control requirements associated with a demonstration that

the NAAQS is attained as expeditiously as practicable (70FR71612, 11/29/2005, Section

IV.G.1). Under the anti-backsliding provisions of 40 CFR 51.905 for areas designated

Serious nonattainment for the one-hour ozone standard at the time of designation for the

eight-hour standard, the state remained subject to the obligations to implement RACT for

the categories of sources identified under Sections 182(a)(2)(A) and (b)(2). On June 14,

2005, EPA approved the One-hour Ozone Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan

for the Maricopa County Nonattainment Area, including the RACT demonstration under

Sections 182(a)(2)(A) and (b)(2) [MAG, 2004]. NOx RACT was not required in the OneHour Ozone Maintenance Plan, because EPA approved a NOx exemption petition for the

nonattainment area on April 19, 1995. The source categories subject to RACT in

accordance with Section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.905 are summarized in Table 1-1.

1-10
Table 1-1 Maricopa County vac RACT Rules and SIP Status

MC Rule 350: adopted July 13, 1988, revised April 6,

1992; revision approved September 5, 1995 (60 FR

46024), effective October 5, 1995.

MC Rule 351: adopted February 15, 1995, approved

February 9, 1998 (63 FR 6489).

Gasoline Bulk Plants

Service Stations - Stage I

Fixed Roof Petroleum Tanks

Miscellaneous Refinery Sources

Cutback Asphalt

Solvent Metal Cleaning

SUrfcice Coating of:

Cans

Metal Coils

MC Rule 350: adopted July 13, 1988, revised April 6,

1992; revision approved September 5, 1995 (60 FR

46024).

MC Rule 353: adopted July 13, 1988, revised April 6,

1992; approved February 1, 1996 (61 FR 3578).

MC Rule 350: adopted July 13, 1988, revised April 6,

1992; revision approved September 5, 1995 (60 FR

46024).

Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

MC Rule 340: adopted July 13, 1988, revised June 22,

1992, revised September 21, 1992; approved Februa

1, 1996 (61 FR 3578).

MC Rule 331: adopted July 13, 1988, revised June 22

1992, revised June 19, 1996, revised April 21, 2004;

approved February 1, 1996 (61 FR 3578), approved

February 9, 1998 (63 FR 6489), approved December

21, 2004 (69 FR 76417).

MC Rule 336: adopted July 13, 1988, revised

September 21, 1992, June 19, 1996, April 7, 1999;

approved September 20, 1999 (64 FR 50759).

MC Rule 336: adopted July 13, 1988, revised

September 21,1992, June 19, 1996, April 7, 1999;

approved September 20, 1999 (64 FR 50759).

1-11
Fabrics MC Rule 336: adopted July 13, 1988, revised

September 21,1992, June 19,1996, April 7, 1999;

approved September 20, 1999 (64 FR 50759).

Paper Products MC Rule 336: adopted July 13, 1988, revised

September 21,1992, June 19,1996, April 7, 1999;

approved September 20, 1999 (64 FR 50759).

Automobile and Light Duty Trucks Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Metal Furniture MC Rule 336: adopted July 13, 1988, revised

September 21, 1992, June 19, 1996, April 7, 1999;

approved September 20, 1999 (64 FR 50759).

Magnetic Wire Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Large Appliances MC Rule 336: adopted July 13, 1988, revised

September 21, 1992, June 19, 1996, April 7, 1999;

approved September 20, 1999 (64 FR 50759).

Leaks from Petroleum Refineries Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Miscellaneous Metal Parts Surface Coating MC Rule 336: adopted July 13, 1988, revised

September 21, 1992, June 19, 1996, April 7, 1999;

approved September 20, 1999 (64 FR 50759).

Surface Coating of Flat Wood Paneling Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Synthetic Pharmaceutical Manufacture Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Rubber Tire Manufacture Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

External Floating Roof Petroleum Tanks MC Rule 350: adopted July 13, 1988, revised April 6,

1992; revision approved September 5, 1995 (60 FR

46024).

Graphic Arts MC Rule 337: adopted November 20, 1996, submitted

February 26, 1997, approved February 8, 1998, (63 FR

6489).

1-12
Perchloroethylene Drycleaning (a) Perchloroethylene was delisted as a VOC by EPA'8'.

Gasoline Truck Leaks and Vapor Collection MC Rule 352: adopted November 16, 1992, submitted

February 4, 1993, approved September 5, 1995, (60

FR 46024).

Manufacture of High-Density Polyethylene Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

Polypropylene, and Polystyrene Resins approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Fugitive Emissions from Synthetic Organic Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

Chemical, Polymer, and Resin Manufacturing approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Equipment

Large Petroleum Dry Cleaners MC Rule 333: adopted June 19, 1996, submitted

February 26, 1997, approved February 9, 1998 (63 FR

6489).

Air Oxidation Processes - Synthetic Organic Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

Chemical Manufacturing Industries approved August 26, 2002 (67 FR 54741).

Equipment Leaks from Natural Gas/Gasoline Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

Processing Plants approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

Industries (SOCMI) - Distillation and Reactor approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Processes

Volatile organic liquid storage MC Rule 350: adopted July 13, 1988, revised April 6,

1992; revision approved September 5, 1995 (60 FR

46024).

SOCMI batch processes Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Industrial Wastewater Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

Plastic Parts Coating (for business machines MC Rule 336: adopted July 13, 1988, revised

and automobiles) September 21,1992, June 19,1996, April 7, 1999,

approved September 20, 1999 (64 FR 50759).

Cleaning solvents MC Rule 331: adopted July 13, 1988, revised June 22

1992, revised June 19, 1996, revised April 21, 2004,

submitted July 28, 2004; approved February 1, 1996

(61 FR 3578), approved February 9, 1998 (63 FR

6489), approved December 21, 2004 (69 FR 876417).

1-13
Offset lithography

Shipbuilding and ship repair coatings

Wood Furniture

Aerospace

Architectural and industrial maintenance (AIM)

coatings

Fiberglass Boat Manufacturing

Rubber Sports Ball Manufacturing

Metal Casting

Commercial Bread Bakeries

Semiconductor Manufacturing

Vegetable Oil Extraction Processes

Coating Wood Millwork

Ferrous Sand Casting

MC Rule 337: adopted November 20, 1996, submitted

February 26, 1997, approved February 9, 1998 (63 FR

6489).

Negative declaration: submitted December 14, 2000,

approved August 26,2002 (67 FR 54741).

MC Rule 342: adopted November 20, 1996, submitted

February 26, 1997, approved February 9, 1998 (63 FR

6489).

MC Rule 348: adopted April 7, 1999, submitted August

4, 1999, approved September 20, 1999 (64 FR 50759)

MC Rule 335: adopted July 13, 1988, submitted

January 4, 1990, approved January 06, 1992 (57 FR

354).

MC Rule 334: adopted June 19, 1996, submitted

February 26, 1997, approved February 2, 1998 (63 F

6489).

MC Rule 341: adopted August 5, 1994, submitted

August 16, 1994, approved February 12, 1996 (61

FR 5287).

MC Rule 343: adopted February 15, 1995, submitted

August 31,1995, approved March 17, 1997 (62 FR

12544).

MC Rule 338: adopted June 19, 1996, submitted

February 26, 1997, approved February 9, 1998 (63 FR

6489).

MC Rule 339: adopted November 16, 1992, submitted

February 4, 1993, approved February 9, 1998 (63 FR

6489).

MC Rule 346: adopted November 20, 1996, submitted

February 26, 1997, approved February 9, 1998 (63 FR

6489).

MC Rule 347: adopted March 4, 1998, submitted

August 4, 1999, approved June 12, 2000 (65 FR

36788).

1-14
Vitamin Manufacturing MC Rule 349: adopted April 7, 1999, submitted

August 4, 1999, approved June 8, 2001 (66 FR

30815).

Automotive Windshield Wiper Fluid MC Rule 344: adopted April 7, 1999, submitted

August 4, 1999, approved November 30, 2001 (66

FR 59699).

Fiberboard for Expansion Joints vac RACT by permit (W.R. Meadows): submitted

April 20, 2005; approved: June 14, 2005 (70 FR

34357).

Polystyrene Foam Manufacturing MC Rule 358: adopted April 20, 2005, submitted

April 25, 2005; approved May 26, 2005 (70 FR

30370).

NA = not applicable

(II) Perchloroethylene was delisted as a vac effective March 8, 1996 (see 61 FR 4588, February 7, 1996).

Source: Maricopa County vac RACT Rules and SIP Status. Maricopa County Air Quality Department,

May 31,2007.

B. Plans shall require reasonable further progress

In Part D of the Clean Air Act, Section 171 indicates that the term "Reasonable Further

Progress" means such "annual incremental reductions in emissions of the relevant air

pollutant as are required by this part or may reasonable be required by the Administrator

for the purpose of ensuring attainment of the applicable national ambient air quality

standard by the applicable date." RFP is addressed in Chapter Five of this attainment

demonstration plan.

C. Plans shall include a comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual

emissions from all sources of the relevant pollutant or pollutants in the area and

periodic revisions

The Clean Air Act requires a comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual

emissions 'from all sources. On April 1, 1993, the 1990 base year emission inventory for

the Maricopa County ozone nonattainment area was submitted to EPA. Full approval of

the inventory became effective on June 26, 1998 (see 63 FR 28898, May 27, 1998). The

1996 base year (July through September 1996) ozone inventory was submitted as part of

the Final Serious Area Ozone SIP, Appendix E.

The 1999 Periodic Ozone Emissions Inventory for the Maricopa County Nonattainment

Area was included in the One-Hour Ozone Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan

in Appendix A, Exhibit 1. The document includes a complete description of the sources

and methodology used to calculate ozone precursor emissions. The 1999 inventory was

submitted to EPA in August 2002.

1-15
The latest periodic emissions inventory for ozone precursors prepared by Maricopa County

was submitted to EPA in 2004. This inventory is included as an Appendix to the TSD for

this plan. The Maricopa County Air Quality Department has begun work on the 2005

inventory for ozone precursor emissions, and expects to submit the periodic inventory to

EPA during the second half of 2007.

D. The plan provisions shall identify and quantify the emissions of any pollutant

allowed from the construction and operation of major new or modified stationary

sources in the area

The TSD for this Plan describes the stationary source emissions, including major new or

modified sources. The 2001 and 2002 stationary source emissions used in validating the

models for the attainment demonstration were provided by the Maricopa County Air Quality

Department. These emissions are consistent with the 2002 Periodic Emissions Inventory

for Ozone Precursors [MCAQD, 2004]. The 1992 Memorandum of Agreement for Air

Quality Planning found in Appendix A, Exhibit 2, of the Serious Area Carbon Monoxide

Plan provides the distribution of responsibilities for local air quality planning [MAG, 2001].

The Maricopa County Air Quality Department regulates stationary sources in Maricopa

County through the Maricopa County Air Pollution Control Regulations, including

Regulation II - Permit and Fees and Rule 240 - Permit Requirements for New Major

Sources and Major Modifications to Existing Major Sources.

Section 172(c)(4) requires an area, in developing its attainment plan, to identify expected

emissions increases that will result from new or modified major sources in a "zone to which

economic development should be targeted" according to Section 173(a)(1)(8). These

provisions effectively allow the State to provide a "growth allowance" for sources in such

an area in lieu of the offset requirements under Section 173(a)(1)(A). This is an optional

alternative to requiring the acquisition of offsets under Section 173(a)(1)(A). Neither the

Maricopa County Air Pollution Control Requlations nor the Arizona Administrative Code

provides a growth allowance in such areas.

E. The plan provisions shall require permits for the construction and operation of new

or modified major stationary sources anywhere in the nonattainment area

Maricopa County received SIP approval of its major and minor source NSR program in

1988 (see 53 FR 30220, 53 FR30224, and 53 FR 30238, Auqust 10, 1988). Effective

November22, 1993, EPA delegated Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) authority

to Maricopa County via a PSD Delegation Agreement. On August 15, 1994, ADEQ

submitted a SIP revision containing portions of the State permitting program that are

applicable to major sources, major source modifications, and minor sources. Part of the

SlP revision, under a separate cover, included applicable Maricopa County rules, pertinent

to the NSR/PSD program. The amendments to Maricopa County Rules 100,200,210,

220, 240, and Appendix 8 were submitted as a revision to the NSR/PSD program. The

submittal also requested approval of synthetic minor provisions under Section 112 (I)of the

Clean Air Act (CAA). On September 1,1994, EPA deemed both the ADEQ and Maricopa

County SIP revision complete. To assure adequate SIP revisions required by Section

1-16
110(a)(2)(E) of the CAA, the Director of ADEQ is authorized under ARS §§ 49-402B to

assert jurisdiction over major NSR/PSD and minor NSR sources, excluding those located

on Indian Reservations. ADEQ received SIP approval of its NSR/PSD program effective

May 3, 1983, and delegation of PSD authority for PM-1 0, effective March 12, 1999.

F. The plans shall Include enforceable emission limitations and other control

measures, means, or techniques, as well as schedules and timetable for

compliance to provide for attainment of such standard

All of the measures for which credit is taken in modeling attainment of the eight-hour ozone

standard by June 15, 2009 have already been implemented. Legally-enforceable

commitments, including the schedules for compliance for these measures, were included

in prior EPA-approved plans and programs: the Serious Area CO Plan [MAG, 2001], the

One-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan [MAG, 2004], the modified Arizona Cleaner Burning

Gasoline Program, effective April 5, 2004, and the Final Serious Area Ozone State

Implementation Plan for Maricopa County, effective June 14,2005.

G. Plans shall meet the applicable requirements of Section 11 0(a)(2)

Nonattainment plans must show that the requirements under Section 110 are met. These

requirements specify that the plans must contain enforceable emission limits, monitoring

requirements, procedures to prevent interstate pollution problems, adequate resources to

carry out the control programs, and other provisions related to the development and

administration of effective air pollution control programs. These requirements are listed

at the beginning of this section.

H. States may use equivalent techniques for modeling, emission inventories, planning

procedures unless they are less effective than the methods specified by the

Administrator.

The provisions of Section 172(c)(8) allow the State to use equivalent techniques for

modeling, inventorying, or other planning activities, unless EPA determines that the

techniques are less effective. This attainment plan uses models, emissions inventories,

and planning procedures that were documented in the eight-hour ozone modeling protocol

[MAG, 2005] that was reviewed and incorporates recommendations by Scott Bohning of

EPA-Region IX. The modeling protocol adheres closely to EPA guidance [EPA, 2005a].

I. Provide for specific contingency measures to be undertaken if the area fails to make

reasonable further progress, or to attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment

date

Section 172(c)(9) of the Clean Air Act requires that nonattainment plans contain

contingency measures. Such measures are to be undertaken without further action by the

State or the EPA Administrator if the area fails to make reasonable further progress or

meet the standard by the attainment date. Committed measures that have already been

implemented may be contingency measures if they are not needed to show attainment and

1-17
do not hasten attainment. EPA also allows federal measures to be contingency measures

if they are not needed for attainment [EPA, 2005b].

The five contingency measures in the Eight-Hour Ozone Plan are: Area A Expansion (H.B.

2538); Gross Polluter Option for 11M Program Waivers; Increased Waiver Repair Limit

Options; Federal Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Emission Standards, and Federal Nonroad

Equipment Emission Standards. Emission reduction credit for these contingency

measures was not taken in modeling attainment of the eight-hour ozone standard in 2008.

A description of the contingency measures and their emission reduction benefits is

provided in Chapter Five.

The next chapter describes characteristics of the eight-hour ozone nonattainment area.

General factors that can impact the levels of eight-hour ozone, such as the geography,

climate, population, and transportation systems, are discussed.

1-18
CHAP"rER TWO

DESCRIPTION OF THE NONATTAINMENT AREA

The Maricopa nonattainment area for eight-hour ozone was formally designated on April

15, 2004. As defined in the Clean Air Act, the term nonattainment area refers to locations

which exceed any national ambient air quality standard for any pollutant based upon the

data collected through air quality monitoring. A general description of the eight-hour ozone

nonattainment area, including a discussion of the geographical location of the area, climate

conditions, population, and the existing and planned transportation systems, is provided

below.

NONATIAINMENT AREA GEOGRAPHY

The nonattainment area is located in the Salt River Valley in the central portion of Arizona

and encompasses 4,880 square miles. The northern boundary of the area is the Yavapai

County line and the southern boundary is located generally along Hunt Highway, excluding

the Gila River Indian Community, and approximately six miles north of Interstate 8 at Gila

Bend. On the east, the area is bounded by Pinal County and Gila County lines; and on the

west by approximately 355th, 403rd, and 45pt Avenues. The area contains portions of the

municipal planning areas for twenty-five cities and towns, and the Fort McDowell and Salt

River Pima-Maricopa Indian Communities, as well as unincorporated areas under the

jurisdiction of Maricopa County (see Figure 2-1). The southeastern portion of the area

also includes Apache Junction in Pinal County.

The elevation of the Phoenix metropolitan area is approximately 1,105 feet above mean

sea level (MSL); however, the elevation in the nonattainment area ranges from 600 feet

above MSL near Gila Bend to 7,638 feet above MSL at Four Peaks in the Mazatzal

Mountains in eastern Maricopa County. In addition to the Mazatzal Mountains, there are

several mountain ranges throughout the nonattainment area. The Salt River Mountains

are located on the southern border near the Gila River Indian Community and rise to an

elevation of 2,507 feet above MSL. The Sierra Estrella Mountains located in the

southwestern portion of the nonattainment area have an elevation of 3,320 feet above

MSL. To the west, the White Tank Mountains rise to an elevation of 4,026 feetabove MSL

and the Phoenix Mountains have an elevation of 2,310 feet above MSL. Additional

mountain ranges in the nonattainment area include the Hieroglyphic, McDowell, Maricopa,

and Gila Bend Mountains.

There are six main rivers that run through the nonattainment area: the Salt River, Agua Fria

River, Gila River, New River, Verde River, and Hassayampa River. These river beds are

generally dry, except during torrential rainfall, which happens infrequently.

2-1
CC

ASSOCIATION of

• GOVERNMENT S

Ptepared by !he Mancopa Association of GoYem"*lIs, February 2001

H1c......

Figure 2-1

G

EIGHT-HOUR OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA

--:. -:. --:c U N PLANNING AREAS

c. ...c'""

e,,"'IT.,

r/

MdJ".....1J

1'" ...,..,1 ,...·/i/i" ,.

Stlft Ri. w l'im" •.\f. ,;....

/". ;... ('_ Itt,mil)

Sron.•d.l/r 1'11"",..1"

I!Ub

fOOl ( I .,.,,,, L ' 60 J m,... ,.,...."'.. ........

101/,.._

i A.......". I

(i~~:,,· .,.;s:::al

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J SN""iir- l""'U> I JaFJr--1t---T'"' I I .......

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Legend

D Eight-Hour Ozone Nonaltainm ent Area

- Existing Freeway

--Planned Freeway

Major Roads

Municipal Planning Areas Shaded

N

.<

o e

Wh~. ewry IllftV1 111111 t-l mRdelo .rnI~.Ih. ltCWl'IloC)' of thuI

IrlformllllOfl, the MIlII'\OJIPfI ~11Ofl 01GOYtlmm8<lW mak61 no

w.....Mnly. UXI"--...d or lmphlld , 111110 lis ltoetHBq end t1lpllltiSly

d1sclalll" IlAbllity lor the llCOOr.cy thereot.

:Irl "Y/m"pelA~85 11/oz_mp8. mxd

2-2
The climate in the nonattainment area is arid continental, experiencing extreme ranges in

daily temperatures. Temperatures range from a mean of 55.5 degrees Fahrenheit in

December to a mean of 94.8 degrees Fahrenheit in July; the annual mean temperature is

74.2 degrees Fahrenheit. The sun shines approximately 85 percent of the time and the

annual average rainfall is 8.29 inches. Most of the rainfall occurs from December through

March and during the months of July and August. (Source: National Oceanic &

Atmospheric Administration National Data Centers.)

The air flow pattern in the area is typically drainage 'flow winds in the early morning,

transition in the late morning to early afternoon, and upslope flow in the afternoon. That

is, due to the heating and cooling effects of the ground surface, the air flow pattern

generally exhibits a morning downslope to afternoon upslope cycle. This typical flow cycle

virtually traps the air pollutants in the valley. Transport of the air pollutants from the valley

to the mountain area can happen during the afternoon upslope flow hours, which is

normally about three hours before transition starts. After the transition, the air flow is

dominated by downslope flow, bringing the pollutants back to the valley. The average

annual wind speed is 6.2 miles per hour.

POPULATION

In September 2005, the United States Census Bureau conducted a Special Survey of

Maricopa County. The purpose of the Survey was to capture the region's rapid population

growth since the last decennial census, which was conducted in 2000. Based on the

Survey, the population for Maricopa County on July 1,2005 was 3,681,300. A comparison

of the 2005 population figure with the 2000 population figure of 3,096,600 indicates that

population has increased by 18.9 percent over the five year period. This area has

experienced a high rate of population growth, which is characteristic of metropolitan areas

located in the sunbelt.

According to the population projections approved by the MAG Regional Council in June

2003, Maricopa County will continue to grow significantly in the future (see Table 2-1). The

2010, 2020, and 2025 population projections are 4,134,400, 5,164,100, and 5,664,000,

respectively. These figures represent a population increase of 33.5, 66.8, and 82.9

percent respectively from 2000. (Source: MAG. Interim Projections of Population. Housing

and Employment by Municipal Planning Area and Regional Analysis Zone. July 2003.)

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

The transportation system in the nonattainment area is comprised of freeways,

expressways, arterials, collectors, and local streets. In addition, the region is served by

public transit systems, which are discussed later in this chapter. Table 2-2 illustrates the

breakdown of travel by roadway facility type within the nonattainment area. These

estimates were derived from the MAG EMME/2 Travel Demand Model.

2-3
TABLE 2-1

TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION BY MUNICIPAL PLANNING AREA

(JULY 1, 2000 AND INTERIM PROJECTIONS JULY 1, 2010 TO JULY 1, 2030)

MPA 2000 2010 2020 2025 2030

Avondale 37,800 82,100 122,500 141,600 161,400

Buckeye 16,700 58,600 153,400 275,500 380,600

Carefree 3,000 4,000 4,800 4,800 4,900

Cave Creek 3,900 5,100 5,800 9,800 12,900

Chandler 185,300 260,000 286,600 287,000 288,600

County Areas 85,300 92,900 109,900 124,600 138,000

EI Mirage 8,700 29,700 31,400 32,200 33,100

Fountain Hills 20,500 24,700 30,400 30,400 30,700

Gila Bend 2,300 2,800 6,000 12,500 17,800

Gila River 2,700 3,200 4,200 4,700 5,200

Gilbert 119,200 202,800 280,300 281,900 290,500

Glendale 230,300 290,400 308,100 309,800 312,200

Goodyear 21,200 61,300 161,100 247,400 330,400

Guadalupe 5,200 5,200 5,500 5,500 5,600

Litchfield Park 3,800 7,000 13,700 13,700 14,200

Mesa 441,800 537,900 617,800 630,300 647,800

Paradise Valley 14,100 15,200 15,700 15,800 15,900

Peoria 114,100 160,800 206,600 232,200 253,400

Phoenix 1,350,500 1,700,300 2,022,500 2,101,600 2,187,500

Queen Creek 7,400 18,900 58,300 73,100 88,100

Salt River 6,500 7,400 7,500 7,500 7,500

Scottsdale 204,300 253,100 287,300 289,600 292,700

Surprise 37,700 115,200 213,300 312,300 395,500

Tempe 158,900 176,400 189,200 192,700 196,700

Tolleson 5,000 6,100 6,200 6,200 6,300

Wickenburg 7,400 7,700 10,000 14,800 16,000

Youngtown 3,000 5,400 6,200 6,300 6,600

Total County 3,096,600 4,134,400 5,164,100 5,664,000 6,140,000

Notes:

- Total resident population includes resident population in households and resident population in group

quarters (dorms, nursing homes, prisons and military establishments)

- These projections include the Maricopa County portion of Peoria, Queen Creek, and the Gila River Indian

Community.

- The City of Apache Junction which became a MAG member in 2002, had a resident population of

approximately 40,000 in the year 2000. MAG has assembled databases and compiled placeholder

projections based on their input for potions of Pinal County. Based upon their input, the population of

Apache Junction is projected to be: 78,000 in 2010; 122,000 in 2020; 142,000 in 2025; and 157,000 in 2030.

- MPA numbers rounded to nearest 100. County numbers may not add due to rounding.

- Please refer to Caveats for Interim Projections for complete notation of this series.

2-4
TABLE 2-2

2006 AVERAGE WEEKDAY VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED

FOR THE EIGHT-HOUR OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA

Facility Type Urban Percent Rural Percent Total Percent

Freeway 27,361,872 34.13% 4,137,046 44.71% 31,498,918 35.23%

Expressway 1,414,063 1.76% 1,039,339 11.23% 2,453,402 2.74%

Arterial 41,491,563 51.76% 2,759,946 29.83% 44,251,510 49.49%

Collector 2,459,716 3.07% 409,939 4.43% 2,869,655 3.21%

Local 7,437,893 9.28% 906,447 9.80% 8,344,341 9.33%

Total 80,165,107 100.00% 9,252,718 100.00% 89,417,825 100.00%

Note: Totals shown may not equal the sum of individual values due to independent rounding.

Source: MAG EMME/2 Travel Demand Model.

2-5
As estimated by MAG travel demand models, the total regional vehicle miles traveled

(VMT) per average weekday within the nonattainment area will grow from 89.4 million in

2006 to 154.2 million in 2026, an increase of 72 percent over the 20 year period (see

Figure 2-2). As indicated in Table 2-2 and Figure 2-2, facilities classified as arterial will

continue to carry the greatest share of travel, approximately one-half of all VMT. Facilities

such as freeways and expressways will accommodate 38-40 percent of total travel. The

remaining 11-12 percent of VMT will be carried by collector and local streets.

Increases in population and vehicle miles traveled have contributed to traffic congestion

at a number of intersections throughout the MAG area. At the same time, additional

roadway capacity has helped to mitigate the impacts of growth in travel demand. Locations

of current and future congestion are illustrated in Figures 2-3 and 2-4, respectively, based

on the Draft Regional Transportation Plan 2007 Update. It is anticipated that the MAG

Regional Council will take action on the 2007 Update in July 2007.

On November 2, 2004, the voters of Maricopa County passed Proposition 400, which

authorized the continuation of the existing half-cent sales tax for transportation in the

region. This action provides a 20-year extension of the half-cent sales tax through

calendar year 2025 to implement projects and programs identified in the MAG Regional

Transportation Plan (RTP). The previous half-cent sales tax for transportation was

approved by the voters of Maricopa County in 1985 through Proposition 300, and expired

on December 31, 2005. The current half-cent sales tax extension approved through

Proposition 400 went into effect on January 1, 2006.

As specified in A.R.S. 42-6105. E, 56.2 percent of all sales tax collections will be distributed

to freeways and highways; 10.5 percent will be distributed to arterial street improvements;

and 33.3 percent of all collections will be distributed to transit. Total half-cent revenues

from FY 2007 through FY 2026 are projected to be approximately $14.1 billion.

Over the next two decades the existing freeway system will undergo significant expansion

as shown in Figure 2-5. Based on the MAG Regional Transportation Plan 2006 Update,

funding sources for these improvements include the half-cent sales tax; Arizona

Department of Transportation funds; Federal Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality funds;

bond proceeds; and other income.

The major freeways presently located in the study area are: Interstate 17 (Black Canyon

Freeway), Interstate 10 (Maricopa Freeway), State Route 51 (Piestewa Freeway), US 60

(Superstition Freeway), Loop 101 (Agua Fria, Pima, and Price Freeways), and Loop 202

(Santan and Red Mountain Freeways). The new freeway/highway corridors in the RTP

include the 1-10 Reliever, Loop 202 (South Mountain Freeway), Loop 303 (Estrella

Freeway), the Williams Gateway Freeway, and the Wickenburg Bypass. In 2006, the

freeway and expressway system carried 38 percent of vehicular travel in the nonattainment

area.

2-6
FIGURE 2-2

REGIONAL AVERAGE WEEKDAY TRAVEL PROJECTIONS BY FACILITY TYPE

FOR THE EIGHT·HOUR OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - . . . .. . . . . .. . ... ... . _ .... . . ..

. .. - - - - - _. - - - - - - ...... ..---120,L ...

. . .. . . . . 97.6

11% . . . . ... .

- - - - - - . . . ..

12%

- - - - - ... - 50% . . .. .

. .. . . . . - - . - - - . . 50% . . . . . - - --

. . . . . . 49% - . - . . . . - . .. . ... - . . .

. . . . . . . - - - - - - .. . ... - - - - I · _ _

. _ .... - 38%

40% .. - - _ .. . 39% . . . . . . .. . - . . . .

- -

. · 154:2

1 - .. . . . - . . . . . . . . - - . - _ . . . . . . . . .. .

,- . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ .. _ . . . . . . .

\ - . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - . . . . . . ... .

1 - . . . . . . . . . - . . ... . - . . . . . . .. _ . . . .

1 - - .. .. . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ . . . . . . . .

r- 4- I - ..d 7) -'-'. . . . . . . . . 13%

13%

- .. . - - - - - - - - -

51%

49%

- .. - . - . . . . . . . .- - . .. . - - - _ . . . . 37% 38%

_.

Vehicle Miles of Travel

Per Day in Millions

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

o

2002 2006 2009 2016 2026

o Local/Collector • Arterial Freeway/Expressway

Note: Totals shown may not equal the sum of individual values due to independent rounding.

Source: MAG EMME/2 Travel Demand Model.

2-7
co,

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_ Greater than 1

AJignlTlf1nts fOf new IT(/8WBY. hI(}flW8Y. arterial.

and light TlJI/HlIgh c;apaaytranSitfaci_I6S wi' be determrlfJd foIOWIrtg thtr complBlion 01

sppropna/ff ~1fJfI and ff(MronmentBl Sludlfftl.

Freeways

• Level of ServiceE & F

Intersections

Other Features

Freeway

County Boundary

MAP

AREA

Highways

Other Roads

_ Lesslhan 1

2028 RTP Network:

PM Peak Period

Hours of

Level of Service E & F

~~((~ Figure 2-4

ASSOCIATION of

• GOVERNMENTS

'(

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SOURCE: Orall Regtan81 Tranapor1alion Plan 2001 Update

While every dort has been mad8 tl ensure me accuracy of thill

information, Ihe Maricopa Association 011 Governments makes no

WHmlnty, e~pre$1Illd tIt implied, as 10its accuracy and exprtluly

disdaims liability for Ihe lICC\lfacy thllfeOf .

o 5 10

N

~IA :OP"

"' G:\De¥V'\Ipo\l!Tl'\2OO1.,I'WI..l4>dMt'I1.<4 :!lilt._os....",

2-9
Long Term Capacity Improvements

New High Occupancy VehiCle lanes

New General Purpose Lanes

New High occcceocv Vehicle Ramp Connect-on

Grand Avenue Corridol' Improvements

New Freeway/Highway Consnucnoe

Corridot Capacity Improvements

Proposed CANAMEX Corridor

I;" """'......'.TO',:"'M ""'" " •...,_'.IlI" ....., ................. -,.,"'."

Other Roads

MAP

AREA

Existing Freeway

Figure 2-5

County Boundary

AI~for,.,.w ''''_y. highway. 8"e,.,BI.

and IlfJhtR1'VhlfJh upote'Y 1_,'lId'lea WI' ". dlJle,mtMd fbI<Mw'll' 1M ~1(]fI 01

6f'IYOIKIlI1. de5Igtl.nd ."VlfOllmental sflJO;e,s

• Now Trame Interchange

•

Freeways/Hi9hways

Reg>oM/1.-.n1pOlt800nI«lItt,..In plfl8II CoLnIy

.. by 1M c.ntraI AriZOIYAuoa8tion 01

aovemm.nl. (CAAG).

• I InterimCorridor Development

• ••• RighI 01Way Preservation

(

)

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5

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"il..!I I!I<, '- I'i"' -n I

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i

,

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!

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I

,

,

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U>I;:Mon ,.. Sour. .n F_.,. IIbei"ll""".....,.."" OCR/f' S .llIly ~(>,If'_"1~

•

--- "'L..i,;·

·

··

···

":'::::: r,;;" ....

....._....

.-.............

'60

•••

185'

_m

Source: Regional Transportation Plan 2006 Update

WhIle8vefy effOfl has been made 1IJ.... ~r.. 'h' accurxy or 111.

Inlonna lion, the Mancopa A..adaMn 01GoYemmlllnlamltkn no

_fTilnty.•~pntSMd Of implied. f11 to ,I. lICCUIlICY and flllpfltUly

disclaims Mabnlly lor thtt accurKY 11'1_01

----=:=---\-=---- -- -- -_ __ __ ,J.J; WO< " _ ,, _ .. ')

- "-" _ \J --"-.. ,.,- ---

2-10
The arterial street network is also a major component of the regional transportation

system in the region. This element carries one-half of the vehicle miles traveled in the

nonattainment area and provides access to adjacent land uses. Like the freeway system,

the arterial network will be undergoing a number of regionally funded improvements in

the future (see Figure 2-6).

CONGESTION MANAGEMENT PROCESS

Although there has been a significant expansion of the freeway system, the construction

of freeways alone will not solve traffic congestion problems in the long term. Locations

of current and future congestion are illustrated in Figures 2-3 and 2-4. Two primary

factors contributing to traffic congestion within the MAG region are an increasing

population and a vigorous economy. These factors have resulted in high levels of

internal metropolitan growth, and have also brought significant levels of urban

development to previously undeveloped lands on the urban fringe. Such internal and

peripheral growth has created greater travel demand throughout the region, bringing

about higher traffic volumes and congestion on the existing freeway and arterial roadway

network. As part of the regional transportation planning effort, MAG maintains a

congestion management process to improve traffic flow and mitigate congestion

throughout the greater metropolitan area.

The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) called for

Congestion Management Systems (CMS) within transportation management areas,

which are urbanized areas over 200,000 population. In response to ISTEA, MAG has

maintained an ongoing process that provides for an overall analysis of various congestion

management strategies and their applicability to the region. This process was based on

three planning efforts. The first phase included an analysis of traffic congestion and

related problems in the region, and was completed in 1991. The second phase included

the development of congestion management alternatives, and the final phase, which was

initially adopted in September of 1994, involved the full implementation of the CMS

through the recommendations of an annual report and the programming of specific

improvements in the MAG Five-Year Transportation Improvement Program (TIP).

The MAG CMS is a multimodal planning process that considers a variety of alternative

transportation options in an effort to reduce congestion throughout the greater

metropolitan region. This is an ongoing process that provides for the identification of

congested areas; implements traffic management system projects and defines the

continuing process for traffic management in the MAG region; monitors subregional and

regional travel patterns; and applies multi-modal transportation improvements and travel

reduction efforts to the congested portions of the transportation system. MAG, through

the annual review, approval and implementation of numerous plans, including the RTP,

and the development of the Five-Year TIP, promotes methods which reduce congestion

throughout the region. As part of this effort, MAG prepares an annual Transportation

Improvement Program Guidance Report that provides a systematic examination and

review of congestion, safety, air quality, socioeconomic data and conditions, system

2-11
- .....- c-, .,,'(

- l - ---- -__ ,'/

, .._-- '" ..- .._ --..- ,j

"- .._ .._... ,..'"oJ -..,

----..----------------'--

(

Figure 2-6

ABSOCIATIONof

• GOVERNMENTS

County Boundary

MAP

AREA

Highways

Freeways

... Improved fntersecrons

R6gtons/ Iran.'IpOIt8l1OfltacllltJes In Pmal County

5"8 ;iannecl by t/Ifl CenlflJl Anzana A.ssocta'ion 01

Govemmenf.s (CAAG),

Othe r Road s

.1 1 1 RighI of Way Preservation

Newflmproved Arterials

AJignm8n~ kK new frgeway. hlfJhway. artrmal.

and light flJl~h ctlfNJClytranSIt flJc"/&s wi. be delerrl'WledfoIOWWIg the completion of

IIfJP<OPI'IlJle d8:s1ptf and 8IYIIlfO{lfJl8t1181 sludl9s

New/Improved Arterials

.......... '"

'r od I t_ _• -~

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- ,

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<,

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'II

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, ,' ! l •

~~-~~ \11\ ...... ' \-\I 'l!1 QUtE N ,

i~· _ ...............

f '- CRUll !=.: I """l -r ' <.. -~ -._._ _,no iT' ! ! ! ! ! l ! : iI,' ; I

;ill! I n, 11; i •hl l ! !II11'"1'I"; ji Ii ! 'I ' I II i

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185

8 lJCKEYE

~~.

Source: Regional Transportation Plan 2006 Update

Whilll every effort has been made 10"!MIre the accuracy of Ilia

Infonnlllion. lhe Mllrir:op a A8Mlclation cA GoYllITlmante make. no

WlIrranty. expr1:Isaet'l or implied, a" 10jlJ accuracy and expressJy

o.sdaim81abillly for lhe accur..::y thereof o 5 10

• MA,fU .. " llJN;

,~\IITP\;l(lIlIi,_'-\ll1·11""""",_"""

2-12
preservation, and a number of other factors in developing and implementing a regional

Transportation Improvement Program and RTP.

On August 10, 2005, the President signed the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient

Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). This legislation

authorized the nation's surface transportation programs for highways, highway safety,

and transit over a five year period between 2005 and 2009. As part of this Act, guidance

was provided on the desired features of the congestion management process in

transportation management areas. Through the development and implementation of the

MAG CMS, an ongoing congestion management process has been established that

complies with the features identified in SAFETEA-LU (2005).

PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEM

Publicly-funded fixed route transit service is provided in 15 communities in the MAG

Regional Planning Area. The services are provided by private operators including Arnett

Transportation Services; Laidlaw Transit Services;Veolia/Regional PublicTransportation

Authority (RPTA), VeolialTempe, Veolia/Phoenix; Total Transit; and Ajo Transportation.

Funding for these services is provided by the cities of Avondale, Chandler, Gilbert,

Glendale, Mesa, Phoenix, Queen Creek, Scottsdale, Surprise, Tempe, Tolleson and

Regional Sales Tax funds.

Sixty-three local routes, 19 express routes, and five circulator routes are operated

throughout the region each weekday. Transit service is operated weekdays for

approximately 15 hours from 5 a.m. to 8 p.m. The exact hours vary by route, with some

service beginning the first trip as early as 4:30 a.m. and some running as late as

12:30 a.m. On Saturdays service hours are from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m., with variations by

route. Sunday service is provided on some, but not all routes.

Nine dial-a-ride systems operate within Maricopa County including Glendale Dial-a-Ride,

Maricopa County/Red Cross Special Transportation Services (STS), East Valley

Dial-a-Ride operated by Arnett Transportation Services, Inc., Peoria Dial-a-Ride, EI

MirageDial-a-Ride, Phoenix Dial-a-Ride operated byArnett Transportation Services, Inc.,

Sun Cities Area Transit System (SCAT), Surprise Dial-a-Ride, and Tempe/Scottsdale

Dial-a-Ride operated by MayUower Contract Services. Seven of these dial-a-rides

operate within the area in which fixed route bus service is also offered. These dial-arides, with scheduled modifications, fully comply with all Americans with Disabilities Act

(ADA) complementary paratransit provisions for eligible persons. All dial-a-ride systems

plan to continue demand response service to existing passengers, in addition to serving

persons certified as ADA paratransit eligible.

The exact hours of dial-a-ride operation vary by system. However, most systems operate

weekday service between 7 a.m. and 5 p.m., with some service being provided as early

as 6 a.m. and as late as 7 p.m. Saturday service is provided by four of the dial-a-ride

systems, while service on Sundays and holidays is limited to East Valley Dial-a-Ride

2-13
(Mesa service only), Phoenix Dial-a-Ride, and SCAT. In addition, ADA complementary

paratransit is provided by six dial-a-ride systems, with days and hours of operation

parallel to fixed route service.

The Maricopa County/American Red Cross Special Transportation Services operates a

prescheduled service. Transportation is provided for qualified persons for specific trip

purposes in portions of Maricopa County unserved by other systems. This provides

outlying areas of the region with needed transportation services.

Vans owned by RPTA provide vanpool services for commuters who live and/or work in

Maricopa County through a contract with Vanpool Services Incorporated (VPSI). VPSI

provides insurance, vehicle maintenance, billing, and National Database reporting forthe

program. The Valley Metro Vanpool program serves 6-15 people by providing a fully

insured and maintained Agency owned van for which the users pay a monthly fare based

on mileage, number of riders and type of van. Each vanpool group has three volunteer

drivers, one primary and two alternates, who drive the van. Decisions are made by the

vanpool group about their vanpool such as the route to work, pick up spots, times of

operation, fare payment, excreta. The vanpool agreement is not a lease or contract and

vanpools may terminate with a thirty-day notice.

Fixed route, scheduled service is provided to an area of approximately 600 square miles

within the MAG Regional Planning Area by VeolialRPTA, VeolialPhoenix, VeolialTempe,

and Laidlaw. In FY 2005-06, a total of 55,832,297 passengers rode these systems.

During this period, 55,832,297 miles were driven for a total of 1,861,464 hours by fixed

route service vehicles.

Valley Metro 'fixed route service is provided by five different entities:

• During FY 2005-06, the City of Phoenix Transit System carried a total of 44,182,683

passengers. The system logged 20,276,910 miles and a total of 1,166,967 hours were

spent in service during the year.

• VeolialRPTA transported 6,484,886 passengers during FY 2005-06. VeolialRPTA

buses traveled 4,956,352 miles in 389,349 hours during FY 2005-06.

• The Scottsdale Connection carried 154,456 passengers in FY 2005-06. The

Connection provided 609,772 miles of service in 27,701 hours during FY 2005-06.

• VeolialTempe reported 5,063,284 passenger boardings in FY 2005-06. They provided

5,063,284 miles of service in 297,027 hours during FY 2005-06.

• Glendale GUS reported 101,444 passenger boardings in FY 2005-06. They provided

142,109 miles of service in 9,117 hours during FY 2005-06

2-14
Demand response and ADA paratransit service is provided in the MAG Regional

Planning Area by Glendale Dial-a-Ride, Maricopa County STS, Paradise Valley Dial-aRide, EI Mirage Dial-a-Ride, Peoria Dial-a-Ride, Phoenix Dial-a-Ride, Southwest Valley

Dial-a-Ride, SCAT, Surprise Dial-a-Ride and East Valley Dial-a-Ride. In FY 2005-06,

938,879 passengers boarded these systems. In this same fiscal year, 658,989 hours of

service were provided.

The Valley Metro Vanpool program has experienced significant growth from a modest

beginning in 1989. There were only 34 vanpools in 1993, the first recorded record of

vanpools on the road. At the end of January 2007, there were 310 vanpools operating

in Maricopa County, all of which commute into the Phoenix Metropolitan area with the

exception of a handful that commute to areas outside of the area, Palo Verde, Hayden,

and Casa Grande. From FY 04-05, 229 vanpools, to FY 05-06, 291 vanpools, the

vanpool program experienced a 27 percent growth rate. January 2007 statistics reflect

that Valley Metro Vanpools commute an average of 72 miles daily, and save 3,460,280

vehicle miles not traveled in single occupancy vehicles. Those same vanpools save

121,109 pounds of pollution from being emitted into the Valley's air monthly.

In 2003, the MAG Regional Council adopted the RTP, which provided a blueprint for a

series of freeway, arterial street, and transit improvements that would be implemented

in the valley over the next twenty years. This was followed by the passage, in November

2004, of Proposition 400 which reauthorized an existing county-wide sales tax to 2025.

The sales tax will provide a regional funding source to fund implementation of the

transportation improvements identified in the RTP. The Regional Bus Rapid

TransiVExpress transit services and the Regional Grid transit services are depicted in

Figures 2-7 and Figure 2-8, respectively. The transit program identified in the RTP will

supplement locally funded programs identified in the Cities of Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa,

Scottsdale, Glendale, Peoria and Surprise.

The Light Rail Transit (LRT) Minimum Operating Segment (MOS) is currently under

construction. The approved alignment for the LRT MOS starter segment extends from

Bethany Home Road and 19th Avenue into downtown Phoenix; from downtown Phoenix

to downtown Tempe and Arizona State University; and continuing to the intersection of

Main Street and Sycamore in Mesa. The MOS will be completed by December 2008 and

service will be initiated through a single opening of the entire system at that time.

The RTP includes regional funding for the completion of six additional LRT segments on

the system. These include a five-mile extension to the Rose Mofford Sports Complex

(Northwest Extension); a five-mile extension to downtown Glendale (Glendale Extension);

an 11-mile extension along 1-10 west to 79th Avenue (1-10 West Extension); a 12-mile

extension to Paradise Valley Mall (Northeast Phoenix Extension); a two-mile extension

south of the MOS on Rural Road to Southern Avenue (Tempe South Extension); and a

2.7-mile extension from the east terminus of the MOS to Mesa Drive (Central Mesa

Extension). In total, the extensions account for a total of 37.7 miles of the 57.7-mile

system. Figure 2-9 depicts the full LRT system envisioned for the region.

2-15
~- ( ...... - . I

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Source: Regional Transportation Plan 2006 Update

While e....ry.,n'ort h.. bHn made lDensure the acwracy oIlhii

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2-16
Figure 2-8

Super Grid

Bus System

FreewayalHighways

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MAP

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Reg ional GridRoutes

Gnd Routes Funded by City of Phoenix

RUl'81Routes

R"f1'OIIIIJ '''fI4JO''f8/lOII fiIC~.'" HI Pm.alCounty

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WhilfllMlry dort has be.. made tDII\8Ure tNt IICCUIlICY ollhia

lnlormaUon. \he Maricopa AuDel_lion of GO'illmnwnt, mdh, no

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2-17
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t. cWt8mJffJfK1 'he r:otIl/HelJoo of

tlppfDpriBr" dNlf1'l4nd .,lVIronmental studies.

Ughl RaillHigh Capacity Corridor Extensions

Eligible High Capacity Corridors

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Freewa ys/Highways

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R6gIOIIlII1trlJoapottllhofl flJCl, ...In Pm. CoutJty

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----- .

2-18
CHAPTER THREE

ASSESSMENT OF AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS

In the Maricopa nonattainment area, ozone can be an air pollution problem during the

warmest months. Ozone is not directly emitted from a source, but is produced by the

mixing of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the presence

of heat and sunlight. Precursors to ozone, volatile organic compounds, and nitrogen

oxides are emitted from onroad and nonroad engines; industrial, manufacturing and

electrical power generation facilities; dry cleaners, service stations, architectural coatings,

and consumer and commercial solvent use; and natural vegetation (biogenics). Peak

concentrations typically occur from May through September when high temperatures are

conducive to the formation of ozone. Also, due to prevailing afternoon winds, ozone and

ozone precursors are transported to the mountainous areas east and north of the

nonattainment area where elevated levels of ozone may occur.

Ozone irritates the lungs and repeated exposure may cause permanent lung damage.

Symptoms of ozone exposure may include wheezing, coughing, and pain when taking

a deep breath. Children, persons with pre-existing respiratory conditions such as

asthma, and others who are active outdoors when ozone levels are high are most

affected by the adverse health effects of ozone. Even low levels of ozone may cause

aggravated asthma, reduced lung capacity, and make persons more susceptible to

respiratory illnesses like pneumonia and bronchitis.

In order to effectively reduce ozone, it is important to assess air quality conditions in the

Maricopa eight-hour ozone nonattainment area. This chapter presents a discussion of

ozone formation, sources of ozone precursor emissions, and air quality monitoring data.

OZONE FORMATION

Unlike other air pollutants, ozone is not directly emitted into the atmosphere. Ozone is

formed through a chemical reaction between NOx and VOCs in the presence of sunlight.

In order for this chemical reaction to take place, it is also necessary to have elevated

temperatures and minimal wind speeds.

The nature of the surrounding atmosphere is an important element in assessing air

quality conditions. In the Salt River Valley, the climate is arid continental with extreme

ranges in daily temperatures. This meteorology is conducive to ozone formation during

the months of May through September, when days are typically sunny and daytime

temperatures exceed 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Consequently, ozone concentrations tend

to rise and exceedances may occur. The highest ozone concentrations tend to occur

during the eight-hour period of 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

3-1
SOURCES OF OZONE PRECURSOR EMISSIONS

The Clean Air Act requires a comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual

emissions from all sources. In 2004, The Maricopa County Air Quality Department

compiled a 2002 periodic emissions inventory to determine the sources of VOCs, NOx,

and carbon monoxide (CO) for Maricopa County and the one-hour ozone nonattainment

area. These pollutants are considered ozone precursors. An emissions inventory for

determining the sources for the eight-hour ozone nonattainment area has not yet been

completed. Since the one-hour ozone nonattainment area was smaller than the eighthour ozone nonattainment area (1,926 square miles versus 4,880 square miles), the

emissions for Maricopa County have been used. Maricopa County is 9,223 square miles.

The 2002 periodic ozone emissions inventory provides average daily emissions which

are calculated for a typical day during the three month period from July through

September 2002. The inventory also provides annual emissions for the twelve-month

period beginning January 1 and ending December 31,2002 for the categories listed in

the inventory.

The sources of ozone precursor emissions are grouped into five major categories:

Onroad Mobile Sources, Area Sources, Nonroad Mobile Sources, Point Sources, and

Biogenic Sources. Collectively, all five categories are estimated to contribute 476.5

(English) tons of VOCs, 381.2 tons of NOx, and 2,720.3 tons of CO per day in the 2002

ozone season for Maricopa County; Figure 3-1 shows the relative contribution of each

category for VOCs. A complete description of these sources and the corresponding

methodology used to calculate the emissions for 2002 are included in the 2002 Periodic

Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors for the Maricopa County, Arizona,

Nonattainment Area, June 2004. This inventory is provided in Appendix A, Exhibit 1.

The onroad mobile source category consists of eight onroad vehicle classes. The

estimated 2002 ozone season onroad mobile source emissions in Maricopa County are

90.2 tons of VOCs per day, 218.9 tons of NOx per day, and 1,011.7 tons of CO per day.

Onroad mobile sources account for 18.9 percent of the average season day VOC

emissions, 57.4 percent of the average season day NOx emissions, and 37.2 percent of

the average season day CO emissions. Table 3-1 includes a breakdown of emissions

from all sources in the Maricopa County 2002 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone

Precursors.

Area sources include numerous small stationary sources which, when added together,

emit significant amounts of ozone precursors. Examples of area sources include

residential wood burning, commercial cooking, waste incineration and wildfires.

Estimated 2002 ozone season area source emissions for Maricopa County are 158.0

tons of VOCs per day, 30.8 tons of NOx per day, and 853.1 tons of CO per day. Area

sources account for 33.2 percent of the average season day voe emissions, 8.1 percent

of the average season day NOx emissions, and 31.4 percent of the average season day

3-2
FIGURE 3-1

Sources of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions

2002 Periodic Emissions Inventory (Ozone Season Day Emissions)

Nonroad - 58.2 tons/day Onroad - 90.2 tons/day

Aircraft, Locom otives, Agricultural

Equipment, Recreational Equipment,

Construction Equipment, and Lawn

and Garden Equipment

-:

Area - 158.0 tons/day

I

Residential Wood Burning,

Commercial Cook ing, Waste

Incineration, and Wildfires

o

'<

I

2f5vo

Total = 476.5 tons/day

Point - 15.4 tons/day

Power Plants, Petroleum Product

Storage and Transfe r Facilities, and

Large Industrial Facilities

Indigenous Vegetation, Crops,

and Landscaping Vegetation

Notes: Total shown may not equal the sum of individual values due to independent rounding.

1.00 ton = 0.91 metrictons

3-3
TABLE 3-1

EMISSIONS FROM ALL SOURCE CATEGORIES INCLUDED

IN THE 2002 PERIODIC EMISSIONS INVENTORY FOR

OZONE PRECURSORS

POINT

Electricity Generation 69.07 0.25 2,783.19 10.39 1,058.25 3.62

Commerciai/institutio 6.99 0.03 103.90 0.44 45.63 0.14 nal Fuel Combustion

Industrial Fuel 43.99 0.17 481.08 1.66 426.44 1.39 Combustion

Food/Agriculture 98.76 0.34

Industrial Processes 35.21 0.11 60.74 0.17 82.07 0.28

Manufacturing 1,013.62 3.61 65.13 0.23 146.12 0.46 Processes

Petroleum Product 19.74 0.06 Storage

Petroleum Product 550.34 1.47 Transportation/Mktg

Waste Disposal 40.79 0.12 27.51 0.08 64.40 0.18

Health Services 17.94 0.05

Solvent Use 367.47 1.27

Surface Coating 1,831.86 7.89

TOTAL POINT 4,095.77 15.36 3,521.55 12.97 1,822.90 6.07 SOURCES

AREA

Fuel Combustion 3,211.00 0.68 4,560.90 10.31 4,817.71 3.72

Industrial Processes 930.91 3.25 589.86 1.96 412.98 1.22

Solvent Use 31,817.28 105.27

StoragelTransport 2,187.56 6.29

Waste 655.70 2.48 67.36 0.22 616.30 1.65 TreatmenVDisposal

Miscellaneous Area 209.46 40.02 95.36 18.30 2976.99 846.53 Sources

TOTAL AREA 39,011.90 157.99 5,313.47 30.79 8,823.98 853.11 SOURCES

3-4
TABLE 3-1 (Continued)

EMISSIONS FROM ALL SOURCE CATEGORIES INCLUDED

IN THE 2002 PERIODIC EMISSIONS INVENTORY FOR

OZONE PRECURSORS

NONROAD MOBILE

Agricultural 70.60 0.31 477.46 2.07 632.96 2.92

Airport Ground 139.57 0.38 147.09 0.40 3,471.09 9.54 Support

Commercial 1,758.91 6.22 1,319.44 3.90 45,797.55 170.02

Construction & Mining 1,786.47 7.67 9,834.69 41.56 15,584.58 71.71

Industrial 361.99 1.23 3,174.80 10.03 15,135.47 52.04

Lawn & Garden 4,523.18 23.21 695.48 2.80 77,273.13 425.52

Logging 20.94 0.07 38.74 0.12 136.54 0.50

Pleasure Craft 600.20 7.71 43.01 0.50 1,423.91 19.56

Railway Maintenance 5.10 0.02 20.35 0.07 61.28 0.24

Recreational 885.25 5.73 63.35 0.33 9,788.20 68.71

Aircraft 1,924.48 5.29 4,187.59 11.50 10,097.03 27.74

Locomotives 136.88 0.38 3,444.32 9.44 344.35 0.94

TOTAL NONROAD 12,213.57 58.22 23,446.32 82.73 179,746.09 849.44 MOBILE SOURCES

TOTAL ONROAD 31,960.00 90.19 79,572.00 218.87 352,821.00 1,011.72 MOBILE SOURCES

TOTAL BIOGENIC 24,152.00 154.76 8,327.00 35.82 SOURCES

TOTAL ALL SOURCES 111,433.24 476.51 120,180.34 381.18 543,213.97 2,720.34

Notes: Totals shown may not equal the sum of individual values due to independent rounding.

1.00 ton =0.91 metric tons

Source: 2002 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors for the Maricopa County. Arizona.

Nonattainment Area. Maricopa County Environmental Services Department, June 2004.

3-5
CO emissions. It is important to note that a wildfire was reported by the Arizona

Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ), in cooperation with the United States

Forest Service, that burned 1,000 acres in the Tonto National Forest July 16-18, 2002.

In addition, ADEQ reported negligible prescribed fires in Maricopa County in 2002.

Nonroad mobile sources include aircraft, locomotives, and agricultural, recreational, lawn

and garden, and construction equipment. Estimated 2002 ozone season nonroad mobile

source emissions for Maricopa County are 58.2 tons of VOCs per day, 82.7 tons of NOx

per day, and 849.4 tons of CO per day. Nonroad mobile sources account for

12.2 percent of the average season day VOC emissions, 21.7 percent of the average

season day NOx emissions, and 31.2 percent of the average season day CO emissions.

The point source category includes stationary sources which emit a significant amount

of pollution into the air. Examples of point sources include power plants, petroleum

product storage and transfer facilities, and large industrial facilities. A total of 172 point

sources are identified in the inventory; 153 are within the one-hour ozone nonattainment

area and 17 are located outside the one-hour ozone nonattainment area within Maricopa

County. There are two additional point sources within the 25-mile boundary around the

one-hour ozone nonattainment area and are located in Pinal County. Estimated 2002

ozone season point source emissions for Maricopa County are 15.4 tons of VOCs per

day, 13.0 tons of NOx per day, and 6.1 tons of CO per day. Point sources account for

3.2 percent of the average season day VOC emissions, 3.4 percent of the average

season day NOx emissions, and 0.2 percent of the average season day CO emissions.

Biogenic sources consist of emissions from all vegetation in Maricopa County. These

sources include indigenous vegetation, crops, and landscaping vegetation. Estimated

2002 ozone season biogenic source emissions for Maricopa County are 154.8 tons of

VOCs per day and 35.8 tons of NOx per day. Biogenic sources account for 32.5 percent

of the average season day VOC emissions and 9.4 percent of the average season day

NOx emissions.

In 2005, MAG contracted with ENVIRON International Corporation to develop a more

reliable and accurate biogenic emissions model and update the desert plant emission

rates for Maricopa County. Biogenic emissions estimates for the modeling domain have

been prepared using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature

(MEGAN) Biogenic Emissions Inventory System. The MEGAN Model is a biogenic

emissions model designed to generate hourly gridded VOC, NOx, and CO emissions.

The emission factors used in MEGAN were developed based on the results of a field

study to identify prevalent plant species in Maricopa County, including their locations and

biomass density. Additional information on the MAG Biogenics Study can be found in

Section V of the Technical Support Document.

3-6
AIR QUALITY MONITORING DATA AND TREND ANALYSIS

In addition to identifying sources of ozone emissions, it is important to examine the

impact of these emissions on the ambient concentrations. This section includes

discussions of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and the air quality

data recorded by the areawide monitoring network.

In July 1997, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promulgated the eight-hour

ozone standard of 0.08 parts per million (ppm). On April 15, 2004, EPA officially

designated the Maricopa region as a nonattainment area for eight-hour ozone. The onehour ozone standard of 0.12 ppm was revoked on June 15, 2005, one year after the

effective date of the eight-hour ozone designation.

In order to determine the extent of the regional ozone pollution problem, it is necessary

to examine the air quality data collected by the areawide monitoring network. A total of

28 criteria pollutant monitoring stations are currently operated by the Maricopa County

Air Quality Department (MCAQD), Pinal County Air Quality Control District (PCAQCD),

and Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) in the Maricopa County eighthour ozone nonattainment area. Nineteen of these sites monitor ozone. The Tonto

National Monument site is located just outside the nonattainment area in Gila County and

also monitors ozone. The network is dispersed geographically so as to monitor air quality

in the many diverse physical environments in the region. Land use patterns near the

monitoring sites vary from heavy populated urban areas to sparsely populated rural

areas. Site-specific information regarding the ozone monitoring stations is provided in

Table 3-2, and the geographic location of each site is indicated in Figure 3-2.

Thirteen of the ozone monitoring stations are neighborhood scale sites. These stations

record the ambient ozone level present in the neighborhood scale air mass surrounding

the monitor. The defined parameter (radius) for neighborhood scale is 0.5 to 4

kilometers. Five of the ozone monitoring stations are urban scale sites and the remaining

two are regional scale. The defined parameters for urban scale and regional scale are

4 to 50 kilometers and 10 to 1OOs of kilometers, respectively. The spatial scale for each

ozone monitor station is provided in Table 3-2.

All of the ozone monitors within the network operate continuously (24 hours per day).

Ten of the ozone monitors operate on a seasonal basis (April 1 to November 1) and the

remaining ten operate throughout the year, with periodic short-duration shutdowns for

maintenance and calibration. Each monitoring station is also linked electronically to

computers at the agencies operating the monitors. This allows assessments of overall

regional air quality to be readily performed by acquiring pollutant concentration data from

several different sites.

One method of assessing the overall air quality of a region is to examine the

concentrations measured at the monitoring stations. An exceedance of the standard

occurs when a monitoring station records a daily maximum eight-hour average value

3-7
TABLE 3-2

OZONE MONITORING STATIONS

FIGURE 3-2 OPERATING

MAP INDEX SITE ADDRESS AGENCY SCALE

Apache Junction

AJ Maintenance Yard 305 E. Superstition PCAQCD Neighborhood

BE Buckeye 26453 W. MC 85 MCAQD Neighborhood

Usery Pass and Bush

BP Blue Point Highway MCAQD Urban

CC Cave Creek 37109 N. Lava Lane MCAQD Urban

CP Central Phoenix 1845 E. Roosevelt MCAQD Neighborhood

DY Dysart 16825 N. Dysart MCAQD/ADEQ Neighborhood

FF Falcon Field 4530 E. McKellips MCAQD Urban

FH Fountain Hills 16426 E. Palisades MCAQD Neighborhood

GL Glendale 6000 W. Olive MCAQD Neighborhood

Pine Mountain

HM Humboldt Mountain Wilderness MCAQD Regional

NP North Phoenix 601 E. Butler MCAQD Neighborhood

PP Pinnacle Peak 25000 N. Windy Walk MCAQD Urban

25608 N. Forest

RV Rio Verde Road MCAQD Urban

SP South Phoenix 33 W. Tamarisk MCAQD Neighborhood

SS South Scottsdale 2857 N. Miller MCAQD Neighborhood

SUPR JLG Supersite 4530 N. 1]'h Avenue ADEQ Neighborhood

1525 S. College

TE Tempe Avenue MCAQD Neighborhood

ADEQ/United

Tonto National States Forest

TNM Monument Tonto National Forest Service Regional

WC West Chandler 163 S. Price MCAQD Neighborhood

WP West Phoenix 3847 W. Earll MCAQD/ADEQ Neighborhood

Source: ADEQ Air Quality Annual Report 2006; Maricopa County 2005 Air Monitoring Network Review.

3-8
Hom.

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InformBlIDn, 1tIl1 Mllnoopa ASSOCliII,on of Gowmmotnls rna,," no

wilfranly. IIllf".-.d Of ,mphfld. as to ,I!; aocuracy and ..~Iy

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Legend

o Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area

• Ozone Monitoring Sites

- Existing Freeway

- - - Planned Freeway N

Major Roads

(

GL •

,

Figure 3-2

G

r-- ····_--

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g:ld8Y1mapslAQ'851111/oz. _In'llrl,m xd

3-9
greater than or equal to 0.08 ppm. Due to mathematical rounding, values greater than or

equal to 0.085 ppm are necessary to exceed the standard. A violation of the standard

occurs when the three-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum eighthour average concentration measured at each site is greater than or equal to 0.085 ppm.

Figures 3-3 and 3-4 summarize the trend for monitors in the nonattainment area with the

highest three-year average of the fourth-highest eight-hour ozone concentrations and the

number of eight-hour ozone violations recorded since 1999, respectively.

In addition, Table 3-3 provides monitoring data for the most recent three year period

(2004-2006). Table 3-4 contains an eight-hour ozone monitoring data summary for the

three-year average of the annual fourth-high from 2002-2006. It is important to note that

there have been no violating monitors for the last two calendar years (2005 and 2006).

In contrast to the past two years of "clean" data, there were seven violating monitors in

2000. There was a noticeable decrease in the number of violations from 2000 to 2001,

with three violations recorded in 2001. During the years of 1999 through 2006, the annual

number of ozone violations have ranged from seven (in 2000) to zero (in 2005 and 2006).

These data indicate the downward trend in ozone concentrations occurring in the

nonattainment area.

The eight-hour ozone concentration data collected by the monitoring network provide an

indication of the progress toward attainment made by the MAG region. The North Phoenix

monitoring station has recorded the largest number of violations since 1996. The site

violated from 1996 through 2003 with three-year averages of the fourth-high ranging from

0.091 ppm in 1997 to 0.085 ppm in 2003. However, the North Phoenix monitoring site has

not violated the eight-hour ozone standard in the last three years (2004-2006).

Two of the monitoring sites in eastern and northeastern Maricopa County (Le. Blue Point

and Humboldt Mountain) are located on National Forest Service land. The Rio Verde

monitor is also located in a very low density residential area on the edge of a Federal

Class I Wilderness Area. High concentrations recorded at these rural monitors in the past

may be caused by emissions produced in the urbanized area, as well as biogenic

emissions at the rural monitor sites. The emissions from the urbanized area react

photochemically in the presence of sunlight, and are transported by the prevailing winds

to these remote locations. The Fountain Hills and Pinnacle Peak monitors are also located

downwind of the Phoenix metropolitan area and have recorded high ozone concentrations

in the past.

In summary, data from the regional monitoring network indicate that the Maricopa County

nonattainment area has not violated the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for

eight-hour ozone for the past two years. In addition, the magnitude of observed eight-hour

ozone concentrations have decreased. This trend is due to the control measures already

implemented within the one-hour ozone maintenance area and Area A.

3-10
FIGURE 3-3

EIGHT-HOUR OZONE TRENDS

(1999-2006)

Highest 3-Year Average of the 4th-Highest 8-Hour Ozone Concentration

0.09

0.089

-- NP MO §. 0.088 -.---------

Q.

-- HM

0.084 -j-----------------------lIIII,.."...----I.--

0.085

0.083

0.082

NP

HM

s-Hour Standard =.084 (ppm)*

NP,P RV HM, NR, P HM

0.086

en 0.087

C

o

.....

coI-

.....

C

Q.)

o

C

o

U

Q.)

c

o

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o

0.081

0.08 -+--------;,--------.-----,---------.------.----------;------,

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

* Due to mathematical rounding, values .085 ppm are necessary to exceed the

standard.

Monitors Where the Highest 3-Year Average of the 4th-Highest

8-Hour Ozone Concentration Occurred

(HM) Humboldt Mountain

(MO) Mount Ord

(NP) North Phoenix

(PP) Pinnacle Peak

(RV) Rio Verde

Source: EPA Monitor Values Report.

3-11
FIGURE 3-4

VIOLATIONS OF THE EIGHT-HOUR OZONE STANDARD IN THE

MARICOPA COUNTY NONATTAINMENT AREA

10 - ,-- ---- - --- - --- - - --- - --- - --

8

co

7

LI 0

C

0

6 O'l

c

:;:;

ro

0

>-

-- 4 0

Leu

..0

E

:::J

Z 2 -

o o o

1999

Source: EPA Monitor Values Report.

2000 2 0 0 1 2002 2003

Yea r

3-12

2 0 04 2005 2006
TABLE 3-3

EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MONITORING DATA SUMMARY

THREE-YEAR AVERAGE OF THE FOURTH-HIGH, 2006

(STANDARD: 8-HOUR: 0.08 PPM*)

2004 4th High 2005 4th High 2006 4th High 3-Year Avg. 4th

Site (PPM) (PPM) (PPM) Highest (PPM)

Apache Junction .069 .068 .084 .073

Blue Point .075 .081 .062 .072

Buckeye" .058# .065 .067 .063

Cave Creeks .076 .082 .080 .079

Central Phoenix .074 .075 .080 .076

Dysart" .065 .066 .072 .067

Falcon Fields .070 .076 .079 .075

Fountain Hills .075 .088 .084 .082

Glendale" .076 .076 .078 .076

Humboldt Mountains .078 .087 .079 .081

JLG Supersite .072 .076 .076 .074

North Phoenix .080 .084 .085 .083

Pinnacle Peak .068 .083 .076 .075

Rio Verdes .074 .087 .083 .081

South Phoenix .072 .076 .069 .072

South Scottsdale .073 .077 .080 .076

Tempe" .072 .076 .079 .075

Tonto Natl Mons .077 .084 .081 .080

West Chandler" .070 .075 .081 .075

West Phoenix .072 .068 .082 .074

* Due to mathematical rounding, values .085 ppm are necessary to exceed the standard.

# Indicates < 75 percent data available.

S Seasonal monitor operating from April 1 to November 1.

Source: EPA Monitor Values Report.

3-13
TABLE 3-4

EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MONITORING DATA SUMMARY

THREE-YEAR AVERAGE OF THE FOURTH-HIGH, 2002-2006

(STANDARD: 8-HOUR: 0.08 PPM*)

2000-2002 2001-2003 2002-2004 2003-2005 2004-2006

Avg.4th Avg.4th Avg.4th Avg.4th Avg.4th

Site High (PPM) High (PPM) High (PPM) High (PPM) High (PPM)

Apache Junction .080 .076 .073 .069 .073

Blue Point .084 .084 .082 .080 .072

BuckeyeS N/A N/A N/A N/A .063

Cave Creeks N/A .084 .081 .080 .079

Central Phoenix .075 .076 .076 .076 .076

Dvsart" N/A N/A N/A .068 .067

Falcon Fields .080 .081 .077 .075 .075

Fountain Hills .084 .084 .081 .082 .082

Glendale" .080 .082 .081 .079 .076

Humboldt Mountains .085 .087 .085 .084 .081

JLG Supersite .077 .076 .074 .074 .074

Maryvales .079 .080 N/A N/A N/A

Mesa .073 N/A N/A N/A N/A

North Phoenix .085 .085 .083 .083 .083

Palo Verdes .077 .075 .075 N/A N/A

Pinnacle Peak .085 .084 .078 .078 .075

Rio Verdes .084 .083 .080 .081 .081

South Phoenix .080 .077 .076 .074 .072

South Scottsdale .079 .079 .077 .076 .076

Surprises N/A .072 N/A N/A N/A

Tempe" .079 .079 .077 .076 .075

Tonto Natl Mons N/A N/A N/A N/A .080

West Chandler" .079 .079 .077 .074 .075

West Phoenix .080 .078 .077 .072 .074

* Due to mathematical rounding, values 2 .085 ppm are necessary to exceed the standard.

S Seasonal monitor operating from April 1 to November 1.

N/A-Data not available.

Sources: EPA Monitor Values Report; ADEQ FY 2003 Air Quality Report; ADEQ Air Quality

Annual Reports 2004-2006.

3-14
CHAP"rER FOUR

THE ADOPTED PLAN

The overall approach taken in this plan is to demonstrate attainment of the eight-hour

ozone standard in the Maricopa nonattainment area with the committed measures in the

Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan [MAG, 2001], the Carbon Monoxide Maintenance

Plan [MAG, 2003], the One-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan [MAG, 2004], and other air

quality plans and programs that have been approved by EPA. The One-Hour Ozone

Maintenance Plan demonstrated maintenance of the one-hour ozone standard with these

same committed measures in 2006 and 2015.

The carbon monoxide and ozone plans also relied upon EPA-approved programs and

plans such as the modified Arizona Cleaner Burning Gasoline Program, effective April 5,

2004, and the Final Serious Area Ozone State Implementation Plan (SIP) for Maricopa

County, effective June 14, 2005. The Eight-Hour Ozone Plan relies on these approved

control measures, as well.

Although the one-hour ozone standard was revoked by EPA on June 15, 2005, all control

measures in the One-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan remain in effect as legally-binding

commitments on the part of the State of Arizona, Maricopa County, and local governments.

These permanent and enforceable measures will continue to reduce the volatile organic

compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) that contribute to the formation of ozone.

Detailed descriptions of the committed control measures are contained in Chapter Eight

of the Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan (fifty-five measures), Chapters Two and Three

of the Carbon Monoxide Maintenance Plan, and Chapter Two of the Serious Area Ozone

SIP.

The measures from the EPA-approved plans and programs have already been effective

in reducing ozone in the Maricopa nonattainment area, as evidenced by the fact that there

were no violations of the eight-hour standard in 2005 or 2006. Collectively, these existing

measures are expected to result in continued attainment of the eight-hour ozone standard

in 2008 and beyond.

EPA has recently issued new consumer and commercial product standards under Section

183(e) of the Clean Air Act. The standards go into effect under a phased implementation

schedule in 2006 through 2009. These more stringent standards will provide additional VOC

reductions and will reinforce the effectiveness of the adopted measures in the Plan.

However, the credit for emission reductions was not available in time to be quantified for

inclusion in this plan.

Descriptions of the committed control measures in the Plan are organized into three sections

below. The first section describes the measures for which numeric credit is assumed in the

attainment demonstration. The second section addresses the contingency measures for

4-1
which credit has not been taken in modeling attainment. The third section contains

measures for which credit has not been quantified, but which remain legally-binding

commitments to reduce ozone precursor emissions. All of these measures will assist the

nonattainment area in attaining the eight-hour ozone standard by June 15, 2009.

MEASURES USED FOR NUMERIC CREDIT

The seven attainment measures used for numeric credit in this Plan are: Summer Fuel

Reformulation: California Phase 2 and Federal Phase II Reformulated Gasoline with 7 psi

from May 1 through September 30; Phased-In Emission Test Cutpoints; One Time Waiver

from Vehicle Emissions Test; Coordinate Traffic Signal Systems; Develop Intelligent

Transportation Systems; Tougher Enforcement of Vehicle Registration and Emission Test

Compliance; and Maricopa County Rule 358: Polystyrene Foam Operations.

All of these measures, except Rule 358, were also quantified for emissions reduction credit

in the One-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan. Rule 358 was included as a commitment in the

One-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan and was subsequently adopted in 2005. Credit for this

measure has been quantified for the attainment demonstration.

Maricopa County Rule 348 was a maintenance measure for which credit was taken in the

One-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan. However, since Rule 348 was adopted in 1999, it has

been assumed in the base case 2001 and 2002 emissions inventories, rather than as an

attainment measure in this Plan.

The attainment measures are described below. The methodologies used to quantity the

emissions reduction credit for these measures are described in Section V of the Technical

Support Document.

1. Summer Fuel Reformulation: California Phase 2 and Federal Phase /I Reformulated

Gasoline with 7 psi from May 1 through September 30

Arizona Legislature passed H.B. 2307 in 1997 which contains requirements for the

sale of gasoline from and after May 1, 1999 in Area A, subject to an appropriate

waiver granted under Section 211 (c)(4) of the Clean Air Act, that meets the following

fuel reformulation options:

• California Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline, including alternative formulations

allowed by the predictive model, as adopted by the California Air Resources

Board pursuant to the California Code of Regulations, Title 13, Sections 2261

through 2262.7 and 2265, in effect on January 1, 1997, that meets the

maximum 7.0 psi summertime vapor pressure requirements in A.R.S. Section

41-2083, Subsections D and F.

• Gasoline that meets the standards for Federal Phase II Reformulated

Gasoline, as provided in 40 CFR Section 80.41, paragraphs (a) through (h),

4-2
in effect on January 1, 1997, that meets the maximum 7.0 psi summertime

vapor pressure requirement in A.R.S. Section 41-2083 Subsections D and F.

By September 15, 1997, the Director of the Arizona Department of Environmental

Quality in consultation with the Director of the Weights and Measures, is required to

adopt rules for the 1998 and 1999 fuel reformulation requirements.

House Bill 2307 also provides that if the Environmental Protection Agency fails to

approve the sale and use of both reformulated gasolines, the Director of the Arizona

Department of Environmental Quality will adopt standards by rule for one of the

following fuels:

• A gasoline that meets standards for Federal Phase II Reformulated Gasoline,

as provided in 40 C.F.R. Section 80.41, paragraphs (a) through (h) in effect

on January 1, 1997, that meets the maximum vapor pressure requirements of

A.R.S. Section 41-2083, Subsections D and F.

• California Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline, including alternative formulations

allowed by the predictive model, as adopted by the California Air Resources

Board pursuant to the California Code of Regulations, Title 13, Sections 2261

through 2262.7 and 2265, in effect on January 1, 1997, that meets the

maximum vapor pressure requirements of A.R.S. Section 41-2083,

Subsections D and F.

On September 29,2003, EPA published a notice of proposed approval on revisions

to the Arizona CleanerBurning Gasoline (CBG) program. The Regional Administrator

for EPA Region IX approved the revisions to the CBG program in the March 4, 2004

Federal Register.

The emission impacts attributable to this measure on a Thursday in June 2008 are

a 0.1 metric ton per day increase in VOC and a 10.3 metric tons per day decrease in

NOx. This is equivalent to an increase in total base case 2008 anthropogenic

emissions of less than 0.1 percent in VOC and a reduction of 3.6 percent in NOx.

2. Phased-In Emission Test Cutpoints

Arizona Legislature passed H.B. 2237 in 1997 which contains an appropriation of

$120,000 from the State General Fund to the Arizona Department of Environmental

Quality to develop and implement an alternative test protocol to reduce the false

failure rates associated with the more stringent pass-fail standards for the Vehicle

Emissions Testing Program (Section 19 of H.B. 2237).

In 1998, the Arizona Legislature passed S.B. 1427 which requires that vehicles in

Area A and B be emissions tested. The vehicles subject to the Vehicle Emissions

Inspection Program that have been included within the new boundaries of Area A are

4-3
required to comply beginning from and after December 31, 1998. The newest five

model year vehicles are exempted from the Vehicle Emissions Inspection Program

on a rolling basis. Owners of these vehicles are required to pay an in lieu fee

equivalent to the price of the test unless they choose to take and pay for an emissions

test. The in lieu fees will be deposited into the Arizona Clean Air Fund. S.B. 1427

also allows the Vehicle Emissions Inspection contract to be extended for three

additional years (A.R.S. 49-542, 49-543, 49-545 and Section 41 of S.B. 1427).

The emission reductions attributable to this measure on a Thursday in June 2008 are

3.1 metric tons per day of VOC and 2.6 metric tons per day of NOx. This is equivalent

to a reduction in total base case 2008 anthropogenic emissions of 1.2 percent in VOC

and 0.9 percent in NOx.

3. One Time Waiver from Vehicle Emissions Test

Arizona Legislature passed S.B. 1002 in 1996 which limits the issuance of a waiver

for failure to comply with the emission testing requirements to one-time only

beginning January 1, 1997.

Also, the Arizona Legislature passed House Bill 2237 in 1997 which requires the

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality to submit a report on one-time vehicle

waivers to the Governor, President of the Senate, and Speaker of the House of

Representatives by September 30, 1997. The report is required to include: a

description of the air quality benefits from the measure; recommendations on making

the provision more effective, considering the impact on motorists; and

recommendations on improving motorists access to the repair grant program.

The emission reductions attributable to this measure on a Thursday in June 2008 are

0.1 metric tons per day of VOC and less than 0.1 metric tons per day of NOx. This

is equivalent to a reduction in total base case 2008 anthropogenic emissions of less

than 0.1 percent of VOC and less than 0.1 percent of NOx.

4. Coordinate Traffic Signal Systems

House Bill 2237 contains an appropriation of $500,000 in each of fiscal years 1997-

1998 and 1998-1999 'from the state general fund to the Arizona Department of

Transportation for distribution to cities and counties for synchronization of traffic

control signals within and across jurisdictional boundaries (Section 23 of H.B. 2237).

In addition, cities and towns responded to measure 97-TC-8, Coordinate Traffic

Signal Systems. The synchronization of existing signals, as well as the enhancement

of coordination in signal systems which are already synchronized, has been identified

by many jurisdictions through a number of programs. Enhancement efforts range

from large scale programs covering broad geographic areas to incremental additions

4-4
of a few synchronized signals to the network. This includes both individual city

projects and regional level programs, such as AZ. Tech which is noted under Develop

Intelligent Transportation Systems below.

The emission reductions attributable to this measure on a Thursday in June 2008 are

less than 0.1 metric tons per day of VOC and less than 0.1 metric tons per day of

NOx. This is equivalent to a reduction in total base case 2008 anthropogenic

emissions 01' less than 0.1 percent of VOC and less than 0.1 percent of NOx.

5. Develop Intelligent Transportation Systems

Nearly all of the local jurisdictions are planning and implementing advanced

technology based solutions to address complex traffic management issues on the

regional transportation network. These technologies involve the application of

electronics, telecommunications and sensortechnologies and are collectively referred

to as Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS).

"Coordinate Traffic Signal Systems," "Develop Intelligent Transportation Systems,"

and "Reduce Traffic Congestion at Major Intersections" are committed control

measures in the MAG One-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan. These measures reduce

VOC and NOx emissions by increasing vehicle speeds and reducing congestion.

The mobile source emission reductions attributable to these FY 2003-2006 ITS

projects on a Thursday in June 2008 are 2.2 metric tons per day of VOC and 0.4

metric tons per day of NOx. The reductions in anthropogenic emissions attributable

to this attainment measure are 0.9 percent for VOC and 0.1 percent for NOx.

6. Tougher Enforcement of Vehicle Registrationand Emission Test Compliance

Arizona Department of Transportation indicates that this measure would use

additional methods to increase the registration compliance of residents. According

to the December 1996 Report of the Governor's Air Quality Strategies Task Force,

the Motor Vehicle Division (MVD) of the Arizona Department of Transportation

(ADOT) has instituted a comprehensive enforcement program. Three key elements

of the new program are a Registration Enforcement Team, a Registration

Enforcement Tracking System, and a New Resident Tracking Program. Through

public participation, consistent policy and procedure application, and new tracking

methods, MVD will enforce the Arizona registration laws to ensure vehicles in

question are registered properly. This will be an ongoing effort.

Another phase of the Program is an initiative to coordinate ADOT efforts with other

law enforcement agencies to assist MVD personnel in enforcing registration

compliance. Other initiatives include a system user agreement between MVD and the

City Courts to utilize information in conjunction with registration compliance and

4-5
discussions with U.S. West for obtaining information relating to new connect

customers.

The Registration Compliance Program began in January 1994 with one full time

employee responding only to complaints. In April of '1996, this program was

enhanced with five MVD officers periodically conducting a statewide effort locating

and issuing warning notices on vehicles suspected of being in violation of Arizona

registration laws. This effort resulted in a substantial increase in Vehicle Licenses

Tax (VLT) for 1996. As the program continues, there will be an enhanced focus on

the local vehicles not in compliance.

Administration of the program began with a required staff time equivalent to one full

time employee. Currently, the required staff time is equivalent to eight full time

employees. Additional staff requirements for the initial phase of the Registration

Compliance Program will require a total of 12 full time (active) employees and one

supervisor. The funding allocated for implementation of the Registration Compliance

Program is included as part of the overall MVD budget.

Arizona Legislature passed S.B. 1427 in 1998 which requires school districts and

special districts in Area A to prohibit parking in employee parking lots by employees

who have not complied with emissions testing requirements. Cities, towns, and

counties in Area A and Area B are currently subject to this provision (A.R.S. 49-552).

In 1999, the Arizona Legislature passed H.B. 2254 which requires each vehicle that

is owned by the United States government and that is domiciled in this state for more

than ninety consecutive days and each vehicle that is owned by a state or political

subdivision of this state to comply with A.R.S. 49-542.

Collectively, the provisions in H.B. 2254 that apply to Tougher Enforcement of Vehicle

Registration and Emissions Test Compliance include A.R.S. 49-557 and 49-541.01

D. and E.

The emissions reduction attributable to this measure on a Thursday in June 2008 is

0.2 metric tons per day of VOC and 0.1 metric tons per day of NOx. This is equivalent

to a reduction in total base case 2008 anthropogenic emissions of less than 0.1

percent of VOC and less than 0.1 percent of NOx.

7. Maricopa County Rule 358: Polystyrene Foam Operations

Maricopa County adopted Rule 358 on April 20, 2005. This rule limits the emissions

of volatile organic compounds from the manufacturing of expanded-polystyrene

products. The Rule applies to any facility that expands, ages, or molds expandable

polystyrene.

4-6
The VOC emissions reduction attributable to this measure on a Thursday in June

2008 is 0.5 metric tons per day. This is equivalent to a reduction in total base case

2008 anthropogenic emissions of 0.2 percent of VOC. This measure has no impact

on 2008 NOx emissions.

CONTINGENCY MEASURES

This section describes the contingency measures for the Eight-Hour Ozone Plan. No

emissions reduction credit was taken for these measures in the attainment demonstration

and the impact of these measures is not reflected in the 2008 modeling emissions inventory.

The five contingency measures include Expansion of Area A Boundaries; Gross Polluter

Option for 11M Program Waivers; Increased Waiver Repair Limit Options; Federal Heavy Duty

Diesel Vehicle Emissions Standards; and Federal Nonroad Equipment Emissions Standards.

EPA allows the use of federal measures as contingency measures, if credit for these

measures is not needed to demonstrate attainment [EPA, 2005b]. All of the contingency

measures have been implemented. Early implementation of contingency measures is

allowed [EPA, 1993], since it helps to ensure that the standard will be attained as quickly

as possible. The methodologies used to quantify the emission reduction impact of the

contingency measures are described in Section V of the Technical Support Document.

Descriptions of the five contingency measures are provided below.

1. Expansion ofArea A Boundaries

Arizona Legislature passed H.B. 2538 in 2001 which expands the boundaries of Area

A. Previously, the Area A boundaries followed the boundaries defined by S.B. 1427,

which was passed by the Arizona Legislature in 1998. Specifically, H.B. 2538

expands the boundaries of Area A past those described in S.B. 1427 adding

additional portions of Maricopa County west of Goodyear and Peoria and a small

piece of land on the north side of Lake Pleasant. The implementation of air quality

measures in the areas described in H.B. 2538 began on January 1, 2002, except for

public sector alternative fuel requirements that are phased in over a seven year

period.

"Area A" means the area delineated as follows:

(a) In Maricopa County:

Township 8 North, Range 2 East and Range 3 East

Township 7 North, Range 2 West Through Range 5 East

Township 6 North, Range 5 West Through Range 6 East

Township 5 North, Range 5 West Through Range 7 East

Township 4 North, Range 5 West Through Range 8 East

Township 3 North, Range 5 West Through Range 8 East

Township 2 North, Range 5 West Through Range 8 East

4-7
Township 1 North, Range 5 West Through Range 7 East

Township 1 South, Range 5 West Through Range 7 East

Township 2 South, Range 5 West Through Range 7 East

Township 3 South, Range 5 West Through Range 1 East

Township 4 South, Range 5 West Through Range 1 East

(b) In Pinal County:

Township 1 North, Range 8 East And Range 9 East

Township 1 South, Range 8 East And Range 9 East

Township 2 South, Range 8 East And Range 9 East

Township 3 South, Range 7 East Through Range 9 East

(c) In Yavapai County:

Township 7 North, Range 1 East And Range 1 West Through Range 2 West

Township 6 North, Range 1 East And Range 1 West

It is important to note that under AR.S. 49-406 (A), MAG has statutory authority to

conduct nonattainment area planning within Maricopa County. However, MAG does

not have air quality planning authority for either Pinal or Yavapai Counties.

Under AR.S. 49-406 (K), the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality has air

quality planning authority to adopt SIP measures in those portions of Area A in Pinal

and Yavapai Counties where MAG does not have authority. For ozone, the

committed measures include the Vehicle Emissions Inspection Program, Clean

Burning Gasoline Program, Stage II Vapor Recovery Program, Trip Reduction

Program, Voluntary Vehicle Repair and Retrofit Program, and Traffic Signal

Synchronization. For carbon monoxide, the committed measures include the Vehicle

Emissions Inspection Program, Clean Burning Gasoline Program, Trip Reduction

Program, Clean Burning Fireplace Construction and Conversion Program, No Burn

Days and Public Participation Programs, Voluntary Vehicle Repair and Retrofit

Program. MAG anticipates that ADEQ will also provide notice and public hearing on

this plan, perhaps jointly with MAG, prior to ADEQ's adoption of the plan under AR.S

section 49-404 and ADEQ's subsequent submittal of the plan to EPA for approval.

Upon EPA approval of the submitted plan, the contingency provisions will become an

enforceable part of the Arizona SIP, which means that implementation of the specific

measures included within "Expansion of Area A Boundaries" can be enforced by EPA

or citizens under the Clean Air Act (once the triggering event occurs), including those

speci'fic measures that relate to actions to be taken outside of the nonattainment area.

Emission reduction credit for this measure applies only to the area between the Area

A boundary established by S.B. 1427 and the Area A boundary established by H.B.

2538.

The emissions reduction attributable to this contingency measure is 1.3 metric tons

per day of VOC and 0.7 metric tons per day of NOx. This is equivalent to a reduction

in emissions on June 6, 2002 of 0.2 percent for both VOC and NOx.

4-8
2. Gross Polluter Option for 11M Program Waivers

Arizona Legislature passed S.B. 1427 in 1998 which requires that in order to obtain

a waiver from compliance with the Vehicle Emissions Inspection Program, the owner

of a vehicle emitting more than twice the emission standard has to repair the vehicle

sufficiently to reduce the emission levels to less than twice the standard (A.R.S. 49-

542).

The emissions reduction attributable to this contingency measure is less than 0.1

metric tons per day of voe and less than 0.1 metric tons per day of NOx. This is

equivalent to a reduction in emissions on June 6, 2002 of less than 0.1 percent for

both voe and NOx.

3. Increased Waiver Repair Limit Options

Arizona Legislature passed S.B. 1427 in 1998 which increases the amount a person

must spend to repair a failing 1967-1974 vehicle in Area A to qualify for a waiver. The

increased amount is $200 rather than the previous $100 (A.R.S. 49-542).

The emissions reduction attributable to this contingency measure is less than 0.1

metric tons per day of voe and less than 0.1 metric tons per day of NOx. This is

equivalent to a reduction in emissions on June 6, 2002 of less than 0.1 percent for

both voe and NOx.

4. Federal Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle EmissionsStandards

In 2001 EPA issued a final rule setting more stringent emission standards for new

heavy duty diesel vehicles (EPA, Federal Register, Vol. 66, No. 12, January 18,2001,

pp. 5001-5193). The rule requires that high-efficiency catalytic converters or

comparably effective technologies be installed on 2007 and later model year diesel

vehicles. Because these devices are damaged by sulfur, the rule also mandates that

ultra-low sulfur (Le., 15 ppm) diesel fuel be used in all onroad diesel vehicles

beginning in 2006. The requirement for all onroad diesel vehicles to use ultra-low

sulfur fuel went into effect nationwide on October 15, 2006.

The emissions reduction attributable to this contingency measure is less than 0.1

metric tons per day of voe and 2.5 metric tons per day of NOx. This is equivalent

to a reduction in emissions on June 6, 2002 of less than 0.1 percent of voe and 0.8

percent of NOx.

5. Federal Nonroad Equipment Emissions Standards

In 1998 EPA issued a 'final rule setting more stringent Tier 2 and Tier 3 emission

standards for new diesel nonroad equipment [EPA, 1998] The Tier 2 program phased

in more stringent standards for all equipment between 2001 and 2006 and Tier 3

4-9
imposed even more stringent standards for 50 to 750 hp engines beginning in 2006

through 2008.

In 2004 EPA issued the Glean Air Nonroad Diesel - Tier 4 Final Rule that requires

manufacturers to produce nonroad engines with advanced emission-control

technologies that will reduce emissions by more than 90 percent [EPA, 2004]. The

Tier 4 standards apply to nonroad engines less than 25 hp, beginning in 2008. The

Tier 4 standards for larger engines will be phased in between 2011 and 2015,

depending upon the size and type of engine.

The emissions reduction attributable to this contingency measure is 14.6 metric tons

per day of VOG and 15.6 metric tons per day of NOx. This is equivalent to a

reduction in emissions on June 6, 2002 of 2.1 percent of VOG and 6.1 percent of

NOx.

MEASURES THAT IMPROVE AIR QUALITY. WHICH WERE NOT USED FOR NUMERIC

CREDIT

There are some committed measures from the EPA approved Serious Area Carbon

Monoxide Plan, Carbon Monoxide Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan, and

One-Hour Ozone Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan which improve air quality

that were not used for numeric credit in those approved plans. The reduction in carbon

monoxide and ozone precursor emissions attributable to these measures was not easily

quantified or may not have been possible to quantify. However, these committed

measures may continue to reinforce the air quality benefits of the measures for which

numeric credit towards attainment was taken.

THE NEXT CHAPTER

The next chapter discusses the emissions inventories and modeling that were applied to

demonstrate that the Maricopa nonattainment area will attain the eight-hour ozone

standard by June 15, 2009, as required by the Clean Air Act. The modeling for the

attainment demonstration assumes emissions reduction credit for the seven attainment

measures described earlier in this chapter.

4-10
CHAPTER FIVE

ATTAINMENT DEMONS"rRA"rlON

This chapter documents the 2008 attainment demonstration for the Maricopa eight-hour

ozone nonattainment area. Photochemical grid modeling has been performed to

determine if the Maricopa nonattainment area will meet the eight-hour ozone standard of

0.085 ppm by June 15, 2009. The modeling concludes that the nonattainment area will

meet the eight-hour ozone standard with the existing federal, state, and local control

measures.

The conclusion that the standard will be attained by June 15, 2009 is also supported by

results of technical analyses, including an EPA-recommended screening test and a weight

of the evidence analysis. A detailed description of the modeling and supplemental

technical analyses is provided in the Technical Support Document.

To support the finding of attainment, this chapter discusses the attainment date, attainment

measures, modeling emissions inventories, and modeled attainment demonstration. Other

Clean Air Act requirements for an attainment demonstration, addressed at the end of this

chapter, include the onroad mobile emissions budgets for conformity, contingency

measures, and reasonable further progress.

ATTAINMENT DATE

Eight-hour ozone nonattainment areas, such as the Maricopa area, that are classified as

Basic under Part D, Subpart 1, of the Clean Air Act, must attain the standard no later than

five years from the date of designation. The designation of portions of Maricopa and Pinal

Counties as an eight-hour ozone nonattainment area became effective on June 15, 2004,

establishing an attainment date of June 15,2009. To ensure that the standard is achieved

by this date, EPA requires that control measures be implemented and attainment be

modeled for the ozone season in the year that precedes the attainment date, in this case,

2008.

\

This plan demonstrates through photochemical grid modeling and other supporting

technical analyses that attainment will be achieved during the ozone season of 2008 for

three different episodes. These episodes represent meteorological regimes and emissions

inventories that caused worst-case violations of the eight-hour ozone standard during the

years 2000-2004. The process for selecting the episodes for the attainment demonstration

is fully documented in the protocol for the eight-hour ozone modeling [MAG, 2005]. The

three episodes selected for modeling were August 5-11,2001, June 3-7, 2002, and July

8-14, 2002. Three "spin-up" days were added to the beginning of each episode, for a total

of 25 days that were modeled.

5-1
The purpose of photochemical grid modeling is to demonstrate attainment of the eight-hour

ozone standard with control measures that have been implemented before the ozone

season of 2008. The simulations for August 2001, June 2002, and July 2002 and

projections for these same episodes in 2008 were conducted using the Comprehensive Air

quality Model with Extensions (CAMx).

The CAMx modeling was one of several technical approaches used to determine whether

the Maricopa nonattainment area will attain the federal standard for eight-hour ozone with

the committed attainment measures. A screening test and weight of evidence analysis

were also conducted to bolster the findings of the modeled attainment demonstration. The

screening test is described below; the weight of the evidence analysis is documented in

Appendix V of the Technical Support Document.

The modeling conducted for the Plan demonstrates attainment for all three of the 2008

eight-hour ozone episodes. However, only the June 2002 episode performed satisfactorily

in replicating monitored eight-hour ozone concentrations, based on EPA statistical criteria

for model performance [EPA, 2005a]. CAMx simulations for the July 2002 and August

2001 consistently underestimated monitored ozone concentrations. Therefore, the results

of the modeled attainment demonstration reported in this chapter represent the June 2008

episode. The modeling results for all three episodes are documented in Section V of the

Technical Support Document.

The validation of the CAMx model for the June 2002 episode involved simulating eight-hour

ozone concentrations on eight consecutive days: May 31 - June 7, 2002. The emissions

inventories and modeling results discussed in this chapter represent the meteorological

conditions and diurnal and spatial patterns of emissions on the day during the June 2002

episode that the highest eight-hour ozone concentration was measured, i.e., June 6, 2002.

To ensure that the same meteorology and diurnal patterns that resulted in the highest

ozone concentration are reflected in the attainment demonstration, the 2008 modeling

results comparable to June 6,2002 are labeled "a Thursday in June 2008." This distinction

is necessary because June 6 falls on a Friday in 2008.

ATTAINMENT MEASURES

The committed measures used to model attainment of the eight-hour ozone standard in

2008 are summarized in Table 5-1. The VOC and NOx emissions reduction credit

attributable to these measures on a Thursday in June 2008 is quantified in Table 5-2.

Credit for these attainment measures is assumed in the 2008 emissions inventories used

in modeling attainment for all three high ozone episodes. The committed attainment

measures are described in Chapter Four.

Relative to total base case anthropogenic emissions, the cumulative emission reductions

due to all seven attainment measures in June 2008 are 2.4 percent for VOC and 4.6

percent for NOx. The methodologies for quantifying the emission reduction credit for the

individual measures are described in Section V of the Technical Support Document.

5-2
Table 5-1 Attainment Measures Used for Numeric Credit

1. Summer Fuel Reformulation: California Phase 2 and Federal Phase II

Reformulated Gasoline with 7 psi from May 1 through September 30

2. Phased-In Emission Test Cutpoints (11M 147 Program)

3. One Time Waiver from Vehicle Emissions Test

4. Coordinate Traffic Signal Systems

5. Develop Intelligent Transportation Systems

6. Tougher Enforcement of Vehicle Registration and Emission Test

Compliance

7. Maricopa County Rule 358: Polystyrene Foam Operations

5-3
Table 5-2

2008 Emission Reductions by Individual Measure for the

Eight-Hour Ozone Modeling Domain (4 km)

voe NOx

Total Base Case Anthropogenic Emissions on 254.3 291.8

a Thursday in June 2008 (metric tons/day)

Emission Percent Emission Percent

Attainment Measure Reductions Reduction Reductions Reduction

(metric in (metric in

tons/day) Emissions tons/day) Emissions

1. Summer Fuel Reformulation: 0.1 <0.1% 10.3 3.5%

California Phase 2 and Federal Phase (Increase) (increase)

II Reformulated Gasoline with 7 psi

'from May 1 through September 30

2. Phased-In Emission Test Cutpoints 3.1 1.2% 2.6 0.9%

3. One Time Waiver from Vehicle 0.1 <0.1% < 0.1 <0.1%

Emissions Test

4. Coordinate Traffic Signal Systems < 0.1 <0.1% < 0.1 <0.1%

5. Develop Intelligent Transportation 2.2 0.9% 0.4 0.1%

Systems

6. Tougher Enforcement of Vehicle 0.2 <0.1% 0.1 <0.1%

Registration and Emission Test

Compliance

7. Rule 358: Polystyrene Foam 0.5 0.2% N/A N/A Operations

Total Emission Reductions due to Attainment 6.0 2.4% 13.4 4.6% Measures

5-4
EMISSIONS INVENTORIES

The ozone precursor emissions for June 6, 2002 and the comparable emissions on a

Thursday in June 2008 are summarized by source category in Table 5-3, for VOC and

Table 5-4, for NOx. Pie charts showing the VOC emissions by source for the June episode

day are illustrated in Figure 5-1 for 2002 and Figure 5-2 for 2008. Figures 5-3 and 5-4

show the NOx emissions for the same episode day in June 2002 and 2008, respectively.

The methodologies and assumptions used in developing the base year and attainment

year emissions inventories for the June, July, and August episodes are described in the

Technical Support Document.

It is important to note that the anthropogenic voe and NOx emissions for all three

episodes were increased by three percent in 2008 to accommodate new population

projections recently prepared by the Arizona Department of Economic Security (DES),

based on the 2005 Special Census for Maricopa County. Although the new DES

population control totals for Maricopa County beccame available in the Fall of 2006, MAG

had not completed the land use modeling that allocates the control totals to small areas

(e.g., one acre grids, traffic analysis zones, regional analysis zones) in time to be used in

the modeling for this Plan. When the new projections are adopted by the MAG Regional

Council (anticipated in late May 2007), the projected population, employment, and vehicle

miles of travel are expected to be about 3 percent higher in 2008 than the projections used

in the eight-hour ozone modeling for the attainment demonstration.

In addition, the NOx emissions for onroad mobile sources were increased by five percent

in 2008 for all three episodes in order to create a safety margin for transportation

conformity purposes. The rationale for this increase is discussed in the Onroad Mobile

Emissions Budgets for Conformity section in this chapter.

The modeling for the 2008 attainment demonstration assumed both the three percent

increase in VOC and NOx from anthropogenic sources and the five percent increase in

NOx from onroad mobile sources. These increases were distributed spatially in proportion

to the 2008 emissions for the appropriate source (I.e., anthropogenic, onroad mobile

sources) in each 4 km grid cell.

In addition, Transwestern Pipeline Company is proposing a Phoenix Expansion Project to

construct pipeline and ancillary facilities to provide capacity for the transport of natural gas

to delivery points in the Phoenix area. Transwestern has indicated that the construction

emissions of nitrogen oxides for the Phoenix Expansion Project exceeded the General

Conformity de minimis values in filings made to the Federal Energy Regulatory

Commission [Osborne, 2007].

Jon Pollack of TRC Solutions provided the emission estimates of 0.09 tons per day of VOC

and 1.35 tons per day of NOx for the Phoenix Expansion Project [Pollack, 2006]. Mr.

Pollack indicated that the source of the ozone precursor emissions for the Phoenix

Expansion Project is construction-related and that the construction of the project will

5-5
Table 5-3 voe Emissions in the Ozone Modeling Domain for June 2002 and 2008

Point 11.72 13.55* 15.6

Area 90.56 105.04* 14.5

Nonroad Mobile 50.73 57.55* 13.4

Onroad Mobile 91.84 72.34* -21.2

Biogenics 451.28 451.28 0.0

Total 696.13 699.76* 0.5

*Includes a 3 percent (Le., 7 metric ton) increase in anthropogenic VOC emissions to

accommodate new population and employment projections for 2008 based on the 2005 Census

for Maricopa County.

Figure 5-1 voe Emissions for June 6, 2002

Total vee =696.13 mtlday

Point

2%

Area

13%

M>bile

13%

Figure 5-2 voe Emissions for a Thursday in June 2008

Total vee =699.75 mtlday

Point

Biogenics

65%

M>bile

10%

5-6
Table 5-4 NOx Emissions in the Ozone Modeling Domain for June 2002 and 2008

Point 11.15 32.78* 194.0

Area 9.79 13.49* 37.8

Nonroad Mobile 79.97 86.58* 8.3

Onroad Mobile 182.36 145.52* -20.2

Biogenics 8.56 8.56 0.0

Total 291.82 286.93* -1.7

*Includes a 3 percent (Le., 8 metric ton) increase in anthropogenic NOx emissions to accommodate

new population and employment projections for 2008 based on the 2005 Census for Maricopa

County and a 5 percent increase in onroad mobile emissions to create a safety margin for the NOx

conformity budget.

Figure 5-3 NOx Emissions for June 6, 2002

Total NOx =291.82 mtlday

Biogenics F\>int Area

3% 4% 3%

Non Road

27%

Mobile

63%

Figure 5-4 NOx Emissions for a Thursday in June 2008

Total NOx =286.93 mtlday

Biogenics

Non Road

30%

5-7
commence and be completed during the calendar year of 2008. Mr. Pollack requested that

the nonroad construction equipment emissions associated with this project be added to the

emissions inventories for the 2008 attainment demonstration.

To accommodate this request, MAG added the nonroad construction-related emissions for

the Phoenix Expansion Project to the NOx and VOC emissions for every day of the week,

except Sunday, in the modeled June, July and August 2008 episodes. The emissions from

the project are included in the area source category for the Thursday in 2008 shown in

Tables 5-3 and 5-4.

For purposes of photochemical grid modeling, the emissions for the Phoenix Expansion

Project were apportioned equally across the 4 kilometer by 4 kilometer grid cells in the

ozone modeling domain that contains the proposed alignment for the pipeline. As

discussed in the next section, the modeling for the Eight-Hour Ozone Plan, including the

additional NOx and VOC emissions from construction of the Phoenix Expansion Project,

demonstrates attainment of the eight-hour ozone standard for all three episodes during the

ozone season of 2008.

ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION

To demonstrate attainment of the national ambient air quality standard, modeled eight-hour

ozone concentrations in 2008 should be less than 0.085 ppm for all modeled episode days.

The attainment demonstration followed the modeling procedures described in EPA

guidance [EPA, 2005a].

The process for selecting the models, modeling domains, and episodes for the attainment

demonstration is fully described in the protocol for the eight-hour ozone modeling [MAG,

2005]. A detailed discussion of the models that were applied, as well as model inputs,

validation, and projections, is provided in the Technical Support Document.

The Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) is the photochemical grid

model that was selected and applied to model attainment of the eight-hour ozone standard

in 2008. Validation of the CAMx model was performed for the August 2001, June 2002,

and July 2002 eight-hour ozone episodes. Based on EPA statistical criteria for model

performance, the CAMx model satisfactorily replicated actual eight-hour ozone

concentrations on all days during the June 2002 episode, except June 3. For the July 2002

and August 2001 episodes, CAMx consistently underestimated monitored ozone

concentrations. The results of the CAMx validations for all three episodes are presented

in the Technical Support Document.

The CAMx modeling demonstrates attainment in 2008 for the June, July, and August

ozone episodes. Since the June 2002 episode provided the best model validation from a

statistical perspective, the results of the CAMx simulations for June 2008 are reported in

this section. The detailed modeling results for the July and August 2008 episodes are

contained in the Technical Support Document.

5-8
For each episode, a relative reduction factor (RRF) was calculated for ozone monitoring

sites in accordance with the guidance provided by EPA [EPA, 2005a]. The RRF is the ratio

of the 2008 CAMx-modeled eight-hour ozone concentration to the base year (Le., 2001 or

2002) CAMx-modeled concentration at each monitoring location. The RRF is applied to

the base year design value to predict the future year design value. An isopleth plot of the

relative reduction factors for the June episode is shown in Figure 5-5.

The RRFs and the predicted eight-hour ozone design values for each monitoring site in

June 2008 are shown in Table 5-5. An isopleth plot of the predicted eight-hour ozone

design values for the June 2008 episode is shown in Figure 5-6.

The highest future design value in the June 2008 modeled episode is 0.0848 ppm at the

Humboldt Mountain monitor. The highest future design value in July 2008 is 0.0836 ppm

at the North Phoenix monitor. The highest future design value in August 2008 is 0.0848

ppm at the Blue Point monitor. EPA guidance specifies that the modeled future design

values should be truncated to the thousandth of a ppm [EPA, 2005a]. This means that the

peak future design values are 0.084 ppm in June and August 2008 and 0.083 ppm in July

2008.

Since these peak future design values for all three episodes are less than the eight-hour

ozone standard, the modeling concludes that the eight-hour ozone standard will be met in

the Maricopa nonattainment area during the ozone season of 2008 with the control

measures that are in place by the beginning of that season. However, the modeling

protocol [MAG, 2005] for the Eight-Hour Ozone Plan indicated that additional analyses

would be performed if the design values predicted by the CAMx model exceeded 80 ppb.

Since many of the future design values exceed 80 ppb, additional technical analyses were

conducted to corroborate the modeling results. One of these analyses was a screening

test recommended by EPA [EPA, 2005a].

The screening test is designed to ensure that ozone will not exceed the standard in

locations that are not near (Le., in the 7 x 7 grid array surrounding) a monitor. In general,

this test is performed for the identified areas in the nonattainment area where predicted

eight-hour daily maximum ozone concentrations are "consistently greater" than any

predicted in the vicinity of a monitoring site. To be conservative, the screening test was

performed for the entire 4 km ozone modeling domain (i.e., 50 x 29 cells; 1450 cells). A 7

x 7 array of grid cells was constructed around each cell in the 4 km domain. For each cell,

the design value was estimated by multiplying the modeled RRF by the current design

value of each cell, that had been estimated using spatial interpolation. The screening test

concluded that the estimated values are less than or equal to 84 ppb in all grid cells in the

nonattainment area for each modeling episode. So the screening test is passed.

5-9
Figure 5·5. Isopleth Plot of the Modeled RRFs for the June Episode

3 •

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37<0000

pp BY

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0

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0 ' SP

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5-10
Table 5-5 Site-Specific Eight-Hour Ozone Design Values for the June 2008 Episode

Calculated Baseline s-hr daily Future predicted Relative Future design

Monitoring baseline desigr max. concentration 8-hr daily max. reduction value, (DVF)I'

Site value, (DVB)I' at monitor (ppb) concentration at factor (RRF) (ppb)

(ppb) monitor (ppb)

Blue 83.3 88.8 88.9 1.001 83.4 = 83 ppb Point

Cave 82.5 89.7 89.2 0.994 82 = 82 ppb Creek

Central 75.7 84.7 85.8 1.013 76.7 = 76 ppb Phoenix

Falcon 79.3 87.5 88.2 1.008 79.9 = 79 ppb Field

Fountain 83 88.9 88.9 1 83 = 83 ppb Hills

Glendale 81 84.5 84.9 1.005 81.4 = 81 ppb

Humboldt 85.7 87.4 86.5 0.99 84.8 = 84 ppb Mountain

Maryvale 79.5 85.2 85 0.998 79.3 = 79 ppb

North 84.3 85.2 85.6 1.005 84.7 = 84 ppb Phoenix

Palo 75.7 87.5 87.9 1.005 76.1 = 76 ppb Verde

Pinnacle 82.3 89.3 88.9 0.996 82 = 82 ppb Peak

Rio 82.3 88.9 88.7 0.998 82.1 = 82 ppb Verde

South 77.7 83.8 84.2 1.005 78.1 = 78 ppb Phoenix

Super 78.3 86.1 87.2 1.013 79.3 = 79 ppb Site

Surprise 75.7 84.7 85.6 1.011 76.5 = 76 ppb

Tempe 78.3 84.9 85.9 1.012 79.2= 79 ppb

West 78.3 83.1 83.4 1.004 78.6 = 78 ppb Chandler

West 78.3 84.4 84.9 1.006 78.8 = 78 ppb Phoenix

5-11
Figure 5-6. Isopleth Plot of the Future Design Values for the June 2008 Episode

(Max = 84 ppb)

L .. _ - - -. --- - - Rlii 3760000 •

6'7 CC

• 3740000

6'0 R' , pp • • su

• 3720000 -Q f H

• ... ..---I • '"

""P• o 81

77 su1II 80 ..,.. ' 55 o 0 c(> • ff

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• ..• -,

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300000 320000 3<0000 360000 360000 400000 420000 440000 ' 60000 -eoooo

5-12
In addition to the screening test, a comprehensive weight of evidence analysis was

conducted that supports the modeling conclusion that the eight-hour ozone standard will

be attained by June 15, 2009 [ENVIRON, 2007]. This corroboratory information is

presented in Appendix V of the Technical Support Document. The weight of evidence

analysis concludes that ozone precursor emissions and concentrations in the Maricopa

nonattainment area are trending downward and that the federal standard for eight-hour

ozone will be attained by June 15, 2009.

ONROAD MOBILE EMISSIONS BUDGETS FOR CONFORMITY

In accordance with the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, transportation conformity

requirements are intended to ensure that transportation activities do not result in air quality

degradation. Section 176 of the Amendments requires that transportation plans, programs,

and projects conform to applicable air quality plans before the transportation action is

approved by a Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO). The designated MPO for

Maricopa County is the Maricopa Association of Governments.

Section 176(c) of CAAA provides the 'frameworkfor ensuring that Federal actions conform

to air quality plans under section 110. Conformity to an implementation plan means that

proposed activities must not (1) cause or contribute to any new violation of any standard

in any area, (2) increase the frequency or severity of any existing violation of any standard

in any area, or (3) delay timely attainment of any standard or any required interim emission

reductions or other milestones in any area.

EPA transportation conformity regulations establish criteria involving comparison of

projected transportation plan emissions with the motor vehicle emissions assumed in

applicable air quality plans. The regulations define the term "motor vehicle emissions

budget" as meaning lithe portion of the total allowable emissions defined in a revision of

the applicable implementation plan (or in an implementation plan revision which was

endorsed by the Governor or his or her designee) for a certain date for the purpose of

meeting reasonable further progress milestones or attainment demonstrations, for any

criteria pollutant or its precursors, allocated by the applicable implementation plan to

highway and transit vehicles."

EPA approved the One-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan for the Maricopa Area on June 14,

2005. The Maintenance Plan contained 2006 and 2015 transportation conformity budgets

for VOC and NOx for the one-hour ozone nonattainment area. On June 15,2005, EPA

revoked the one-hour ozone standard.

The EPA transportation conformity guidance for eight-hour ozone (EPA, 2004) indicates

that the appropriate interim emissions tests for the Maricopa eight-hour ozone

nonattainment area, which is larger than the former one-hour ozone nonattainment area,

are: a budget test, based on the approved one-hour ozone budgets, and a no-greater-than2002 baseline emissions. For the eight-hour ozone interim budget test, the one-hour

ozone budgets have been adjusted to remove local travel in the Gila River Indian

5-13
Community. This adjustment is done, because the Maricopa County portion of the Gila

River Indian Community was previously in the one-hour ozone nonattainment area, but was

excluded from the eight-hour ozone nonattainment area by EPA [EPA 2004b].

The interim budget and no-greater-than-2002 emissions tests for eight-hour ozone were

applied in the transportation conformity analyses conducted in 2005 and 2006 and will

continue to be used until eight-hour ozone budgets are found to be adequate or approved

in a SIP by EPA. This Eight-Hour Ozone Plan establishes conformity budgets based on

2008 onroad mobile source VOC and NOx emissions in the eight-hour ozone

nonattainment area.

The conformity budget is represented by the onroad mobile source VOC and NOx

emissions for the peak episode day in June 2008 that was used to model attainment of the

eight-hour ozone standard, as discussed in the previous section. As shown in Tables 5-3

and 5-4, the onroad mobile source emissions in the eight-hour ozone modeling domain on

a Thursday in June 2008 are 72.3 metric tons per day for VOC and 145.5 metric tons per

day for NOx.

GIS was applied to extract the portion of the onroad mobile emissions in the eight-hour

ozone nonattainment area from the larger modeling domain. The resultant onroad mobile

emissions for the nonattainment area are 67.9 metric tons per day for VOC and 138.2

metric tons per day for NOx. These represent the 2008 eight-hour emissions budgets for

use in transportation conformity.

MAG will replace the interim eight-hour ozone emissions tests with the new VOC and NOx

emissions budgets for use in the conformity analysis that begins after the budgets are

found to be adequate or approved by EPA as part of the Eight-Hour Ozone Attainment

Plan. In subsequent conformity analyses, onroad mobile source emissions for conformity

horizon years can not exceed these 2008 budgets.

The methodology used to estimate onroad mobile source emissions for 2008 is

documented in Section V-3 of the Technical Support Document. The models and

assumptions used in estimating onroad mobile source emissions for future conformity

analyses may differfrom those described in the Technical Support Document, because the

latest planning assumptions (e.g., new emissions models, vehicle registrations, speeds,

population and travel projections) must be used each time a conformity analysis is

performed. [FHWA, 200"1].

Due to the inherent uncertainties associated with the requirement to use latest planning

assumptions in conformity analyses, the onroad mobile NOx emissions used in modeling

attainment were increased by five percent to create a safety margin for the NOx conformity

budget. EPA has indicated that safety margins are allowed, if attainment can be modeled

with the increased emissions [EPA, 2004a; EPA, 2007]. The onroad mobile source NOx

emissions used in modeling attainment of the eight-hour ozone standard for all three

episodes were increased by five percent. The increase was distributed spatially in the

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ozone modeling domain based on the proportion of onroad mobile emissions assigned to

each 4 km grid cell. The five percent increase is reflected in the onroad mobile source

NOx emissions in Table 5-4, as well as the NOx conformity budget of 138.2 metric tons per

day.

CONTINGENCY MEASURES

Section 172(c)(9) of the Clean Air Act requires that nonattainment plans contain

contingency measures. Such measures are to be undertaken without further action by the

State or the EPA Administrator if the area fails to make reasonable further progress or

meet the standard by the attainment date. Committed measures that have already been

implemented may be contingency measures if they are not needed to show attainment and

do not hasten attainment. [EPA, 1993]. EPA also allows federal measures to be

contingency measures if they are not needed for attainment [EPA, 2005b].

The five contingency measures in the Eight-Hour Ozone Plan are: Area A Expansion (H.B.

2538); Gross Polluter Option for 11M Program Waivers; Increased Waiver Repair Limit

Options; Federal Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Emission Standards, and Federal Nonroad

Equipment Emission Standards. Emission reduction credit for these contingency

measures was not taken in modeling attainment of the eight-hour ozone standard in 2008.

A description of the individual contingency measures is provided in Chapter Four. Early

implementation of the local contingency measures and the phased implementation of the

federal measures provides additional confidence that the eight-hour ozone standard will

be attained in 2008 and beyond.

Table 5-6 quantifies the emission reduction credit attributable to each of the contingency

measures, relative to the base case emissions on June 6, 2002. The methodologies for

quantifying the emission reduction credit for the contingency measures are described in

Section V-2-2 of the Technical Support Document.

Although there is no mandated emissions reduction level for contingency measures, EPA

recommends that contingency measures provide a minimum reduction of three percent,

relative to the base year, in VOC and NOx emissions, with at least a 0.3 percent reduction

in VOC [EPA, 1993]. As indicated in Table 5-6, the reductions attributable to the

contingency measures are 15.9 metric tons per day of VOC and 18.8 metric tons per day

of NOx. These represent a 2.2 percent reduction in VOC emissions and a 6.4 percent

reduction in NOx emissions, relative to base case emissions on June 6, 2002.

The combined VOC and NOx reductions of 8.7 percent surpasses the EPA-recommended

three percent. In addition, the 2.3 percent reduction in VOC emissions greatly exceeds the

EPA-recommended value of 0.3 percent. Therefore, the EPA guidelines for emission

reductions from contingency measures are satisfied.

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Table 5-6 Emission Reductions by Individual Contingency Measure in the Eight-Hour Ozone Modeling Domain

VOC NOx

Base Case Emissions on 696.13 291.82 June 6,2002 (metric tons/day)

Emission Percent Emission Percent

Contingency Measure Reductions Reduction Reductions Reduction in

(metric in (metric Emissions

tons/day) Emissions tons/day)

1. Expansion of Area A 1.3 0.2% 0.7 0.2% Boundaries (H.B. 2538)

2. Gross Polluter Option

for I/M Program <0.1 <0.1% <0.1 <0.1%

Waivers

3. Increased Waiver <0.1 <0.1% <0.1 <0.1% Repair Limit Options

4. Federal Heavy Duty

Diesel Vehicle <0.1 <0.1% 2.5 0.9%

Standards

5. Federal Nonroad 14.6 2.1% 15.6 5.3% Equipment Standards

Total Emission Reductions

due to Contingency Measures 15.9 2.3% 18.8 6.4%

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The modeled attainment demonstration discussed earlier in this chapter did not assume

emission reduction credit for the contingency measures. Supplemental analyses have

indicated that the contingency measures would not reduce the peak modeled ozone

concentrations in June, July, or August 2008. Therefore, inclusion of these contingency

measures in the modeling for the attainment demonstration would not hasten attainment,

(Le., advance the attainment date from 2008 to 2007).

The success of an air quality program is measured by the concentrations recorded at the

monitors. A violation of the eight-hour ozone standard occurs when the three-year average

of the fourth highest annual value at a monitor is 0.085 ppm or greater. Ambient air quality

monitoring data will be examined to determine if a violation has occurred. If the standard

is violated at any monitor, additional contingency measures will be considered, which may

include new measures or the strengthening of existing measures. If a violation occurs,

additional contingency measures would be considered on the following schedule: (A)

verification of the monitoring data to be completed three months after the violation occurs;

(B) applicable contingency measure(s) to be considered for adoption six months after the

date established in (A) above, and (C) contingency measure(s) to be implemented within

six to twelve months after adoption, depending upon the time needed to put the measure

in place.

REASONABLE FURTHER PROGRESS

Part 0 of the Clean Air Act, Section 171, indicates that "the term Reasonable Further

Progress" means "such annual incremental reductions in emissions of the relevant air

pollutant as are required by this part or may be reasonably required by the Administrator

for the purpose of ensuring attainment of the applicable national ambient air quality

standard by the applicable date." The EPA Final Rule implementing the eight-hour ozone

standard [EPA. 2005c] states that reasonable further progress (RFP) for areas, such as

the Maricopa nonattainment area, that are classified under Part 0, Subpart 1, with an

attainment date within five years of designation (Le., June 15,2009 or sooner), would be

met "by ensuring emissions reductions needed for attainment are implemented, ..., by the

beginning of the ozone season prior to the attainment date." The table on page 71632 of

the same rule indicates that Subpart 1 areas with attainment dates within 5 years of

designation would "meet RFP through showing of expeditious attainment."

This EPA guidance indicates that this plan can demonstrate reasonable further progress

by showing that (1) the emissions reductions needed for attainment are implemented by

the beginning of the ozone season prior to attainment and (2) attainment of the eight-hour

ozone standard is achieved expeditiously with these measures. The Attainment

Demonstration section of this chapter indicates, through photochemical grid modeling

supplemented by other technical analyses, that the eight-hour standard will be attained in

June, July, and August 2008 with the adopted measures described in Chapter Four. All

of the adopted measures are already implemented. Therefore, the EPA requirement for

the measures to be in place prior to the ozone season of 2008 is met.

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The requirement to achieve the eight-hour standard expeditiously with the measures in

Chapter Four has also been met, as evidenced by the fact that there have been two

consecutive years (Le., 2005 and 2006) of "clean data" at all eight-hour ozone monitors in

the Maricopa nonattainment area. Early implementation of the measures in Chapter Four

has resulted in early implementation of the eight-hour ozone standard (Le., before 2009),

which clearly qualifies as expeditious attainment.

Since the measures needed for attainment have already been implemented and the

standard has been met expeditiously, reasonable further progress has been demonstrated.

The contingency measures and other measures that have not been quantified for the

attainment demonstration will provide additional benefit in meeting the standard in 2008

and beyond.

CONCLUSIONS

As discussed in this chapter, the CAMx modeling demonstrates attainment of the eighthour ozone standard for three multi-day high ozone episodes representing differing

meteorological and emissions regimes. The modeling indicates that eight-hour ozone

concentrations throughout the Maricopa nonattainment area (MNA) will be less than 0.085

ppm for all three episodes during the ozone season of 2008.

The peak modeled ozone concentration of 0.0848 ppm occurs at the Humboldt Mountain

monitor during June 2008. The peak modeled concentration during the July 2008 episode

is 0.0836 ppm at the North Phoenix monitor. The peak modeled concentration of 0.0848

ppm occurs at the Blue Point monitor in August 2008. EPA guidance for eight-hour ozone

modeling [EPA, 2005a] indicates that the modeled design values should be expressed in

terms of three significant digits, with less significant digits truncated. Therefore, the peak

concentrations in the June and August episodes are 0.084 ppm, the peak value for the July

episode is 0.083 ppm, and all three episodes demonstrate attainment of the standard in

2008.

While the modeled values are only slightly below the standard, a screening test and weight

of evidence analysis also support the results of the modeled attainment demonstration.

The latter concludes that "eight hour ozone air quality in the MNA is improving as a result

of existing control measures. Despite a continuous increase in the population in Maricopa

and Pinal counties...and increases in other factors such as vehicle miles traveled..., the

MNA is exhibiting decreasing trends for ozone and its precursors, NOx and VOC." (Page

1, Appendix V of the TSO.)

Excerpts from the summary section of the weight of evidence analysis prepared by

ENVIRON International Corporation are shown in italics below (Pages 26-27, Appendix V

of the TSO).

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The weight of evidence analyses support the numerical modeling demonstration

that the MNA will attain the 8-hour ozone standard by the attainment year of2009

with current emission reduction programs and existing assumptions for population

growth and economic development. The weight of evidence analyses

considered...ambient ozone and NOx concentration trends, precursor emission

trends, and ozone sensitivity to changes in NOx vs. VOG.

The weight of evidence analysis also concludes that:

• The MNA is eXhibiting downward trends in ozone using several metrics, namely the

number of annual violations of the 8-hour standard, the basinwide 8-hour ozone

Design Value, and the basinwide annual 4h highest 8-hour ozone concentration;

• The largest ozone reductions have occurred for urban sites;

• The MNA is exhibiting large reductions in ozone precursor (NOx and VOG)

emissions;

o Historically, mobile-source controls have more than offset VMTgrowth in the

region andhave contributed to reductions in ozone precursorconcentrations;

o VMT is projected to grow by 84% in the next 20 years but increasingly

stringent federal emission standards for vehicles and fuels will lead to VOG

and NOx emissions reductions that are about double the needed offsets to

maintain the ozone standard;

• Gomparison of modeled and measured VOG composition (i.e., PAMS

measurements) shows that the model is accurately reproducing VOG composition

in central Phoenix. This finding build confidence in the ability of the photochemical

model to characterize ozone photochemistry in Phoenix.

In addition, the fact that the nonattainment area has not violated the eight-hour ozone

standard in the past two years lends additional credence to the conclusions of the modeled

attainment demonstration, screening test ,and weight of evidence analysis. It is important

to reiterate that the measures that have enabled the nonattainment area to achieve "clean

data" at the monitors in 2005 and 2006 are ongoing federal and legally-enforceable local

commitments that should continue to improve ozone air quality in 2008 and beyond.

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REFERENCES

ADEQ, 2000. "Serious Area Ozone State Implementation Plan for Maricopa County."

Prepared by the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality. December 14, 2000.

ENVIRON, 2007. Memorandum to Cathy Arthur, et. al. "Weight of Evidence Analysis to

Support the Maricopa 8-Hour Ozone SIP'. Prepared by ENVIRON International

Corporation. February 21,2007.

EPA, 1993. "Early Implementation of Contingency Measures for Ozone and Carbon

Monoxide (CO) NonattainmentAreas'. Prepared by G. T. Helms, EPA Chief, Ozone/Carbon

Monoxide Programs Branch. August 13, 1993.

EPA, 1998. "Control ofEmissions ofAirPollution from Nonroad Diesel Engines, Final Rule."

Federal Register, Vol. 63. No. 205. October 23, 1998.

EPA,2004a. "Control ofEmissions ofAir Pollution from Nonroad Diesel Engines and Fuel;

Final Rule." Federal Register, Vol 69, No. 124. June 29, 2004.

EPA,2004b. "8-Hour Ozone National AmbientAir Quality Standards; Final Rules." Federal

Register, Vol. 69., No. 84. April 30, 2004.

EPA, 2005a. "Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses in Attainment

Demonstrations for the 8-hour Ozone NAAQS." February 17, 2005.

EPA, 2005b. "Final Rule to Implement the 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality

Standard." November 29,2005.

EPA, 2006. "Diesel Retrofits: Quantifying and Using Their Benefits in SIPs and Conformity."

June 2006.

EPA,2007. Conference calls with EPA Region IX staff on April 19 and 27, 2007.

FHWA, 2001. "Use of Latest Planning Assumptions in Conformity Determinations."

Memorandum issued jointly by FHWA, FTA, and EPA. January 18, 2001.

MAG, 2001. "Revised MAG 1999 Serious Area Carbon Monoxide Plan for the Maricopa

County Nonattainment Area." Prepared by the Maricopa Association of Governments.

March 2001.

MAG, 2003. "Carbon Monoxide Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan for the

Maricopa County Nonattainment Area." Prepared by the Maricopa Association of

Governments. May 2003.

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MAG, 2004. "One-Hour Ozone Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan for the

IMaricopa County Nonattainment Area." Prepared by the Maricopa Association of

Governments. March 2004.

MAG, 2005. "Modeling Protocol in Support of an Eight-Hour Ozone Attainment

Demonstration for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area." Prepared by the Maricopa

Association of Governments. September 28, 2005.

MCAQD, 2004. "2002 Periodic Emissions Inventoryfor Ozone Precursors for the Maricopa

County, Arizona, Nonattainment Area." Prepared by the Maricopa County Air Quality

Department. June 2004.

Osborne, 2007. "Transwestern Pipeline Company, LLC - Phoenix Expansion Project

General Conformity Request." Letter from William R. Osborne to Jo Crumbaker of the

Maricopa County Air Quality Department. February 22,2007.

Pollack, 2006. "General Conformity - Transwestern." E-mail from Jon Pollack of TRC

Solutions to Cathy Arthur of MAG. December 28,2006.

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