GAO

United States General Accounting Office

Report to Congressional Requesters 

June 1999 VIETNAM ECONOMIC 

DATA

Assessment of 

Availability and 

Quality

GAO/NSIAD-99-109

Page 1 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

United States General Accounting Office

Washington, D.C. 20548 Leter

National Security and

International Affairs Division

B-279772 Letter

June 1, 1999

The Honorable Dana Rohrabacher

The Honorable Zoe Lofgren

House of Representatives

The recent financial crisis in East Asia and the overall importance of the 

region to the United States has highlighted the need for reliable and timely 

economic and trade data on individual countries in the region. In recent 

years, the United States has taken several steps to normalize relations with 

Vietnam and is currently negotiating a long-term trade agreement with its 

government. You asked us to examine economic data on Vietnam, which 

has been experiencing considerable economic growth and development as 

it transitions from a centrally planned to a more market-based economy. To 

respond to your requests, we examined the availability, transparency, and 

quality of published economic and trade data on Vietnam.

Results in Brief Vietnam has released data on a number of key economic indicators such as 

the gross domestic product (GDP), imports and exports, foreign 

investments, and growth rates. However, it has not made available some 

other important data on the economy. For example, it does not publish the 

state budget and does not provide standard financial information used by 

the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for its monthly International 

Financial Statistics (IFS) publication. Virtually all countries in the world, 

including transitional economies and the poorest countries, publish their 

country pages in the IFS.

When data is available, it is highly aggregated and difficult to interpret 

because the data collection, analysis, and reporting methods used to 

produce it are not transparent or readily available to users. While the 

quality of the data has improved in recent years, published indicators such 

as GDP contain weaknesses because they do not include important 

components of the economy. For example, small businesses, the service 

sector, and remittances from overseas are underreported, while growth and 

foreign investment estimates may be overestimated. Without more 

accurate data, it is difficult to effectively evaluate economic conditions in 

Vietnam and identify economic and financial problems that may be 

occurring. Several international agencies, such as the IMF and the World 

Letr
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Page 2 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

Bank, have recognized that data deficiencies exist and are currently 

providing technical and financial assistance to the Vietnamese government 

to help it improve the availability and quality of its data. 

Background Data on Vietnam’s economy and trade originates primarily from the 

General Statistical Office (GSO), a Vietnamese government agency. Other 

agencies such as the Ministry of Industry and the State Bank of Vietnam 

also provide some data. The GSO publishes monthly and annual reports on 

the economy and population that include information on the labor force, 

GDP, foreign investment, industrial sectors, retail sales, prices, and 

inflation rates, among others.

The IMF, the World Bank, and the United Nations also publish economic 

and trade data on Vietnam, but as a standard practice they rely primarily on 

the government for much of the information. The IMF has a permanent 

representative in Vietnam who monitors economic conditions, and the 

Fund periodically sends missions to Vietnam to collect additional 

information and provide technical assistance. As it does with most other 

countries, the IMF summarizes Vietnam’s economic and financial condition 

in periodic staff reports that are available to the public and generates 

confidential studies that examine specific topics such as banking.

For its part, the World Bank publishes the World Development Indicators

(WDI) in collaboration with 26 other public and private agencies, including 

the IMF, the International Labour Organization, the United Nations, the 

World Trade Organization, Moody’s Investors Service, Price Waterhouse, 

and Standard and Poor’s Rating Services. The 1998 WDI includes a broad 

range of economic, population, and environmental data on 210 countries 

from 1960 to 1996. The United Nations publishes National Accounts 

Statistics on different countries, including Vietnam, each year. The United 

Nations Development Programme (UNDP) also issues a number of reports 

and evaluations of poverty and economic conditions in Vietnam. There are 

other publications with a narrower focus, such as the IMF’s Direction of 

Trade Statistics Yearbook and the United Nations’ Monthly Bulletin of 

Statistics.

U.S. agencies such as the Departments of Treasury, Commerce, and State 

and the Trade and Development Agency rely mainly on international 

agencies for data on Vietnam’s economy. However, several U.S. federal 

agencies jointly publish an annual report on Vietnam, the Country 

Commercial Guide, written by an in-country expert. The Department of 

Letr
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Page 3 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

Commerce also releases data on bilateral trade between the United States 

and its trading partners, including Vietnam. The United Nations publishes 

similar bilateral trade data reported by member states.

Several economic magazines and journals also provide economic and trade 

data on Vietnam. The Vietnam Business Journal, for example, publishes 

indicators of Vietnam’s economy, foreign investment, imports, and exports, 

using the government and international agencies as its sources. The 

Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd., also issues quarterly reports on the 

Vietnamese economy and covers major economic and trade indicators. It 

pools data from various sources, including its own estimates.

Gaps in Availability of 

Data

Although the government does publish many key economic indicators, 

there are major gaps. For example, by law, Vietnam’s state budget is 

classified as a secret document and therefore cannot be made available to 

the public. Under much pressure from international agencies and donors, 

in 1998 top government officials indicated they would release the budget, 

but as of March 1999, they had not yet done so. The government includes 

some estimates of the budget in its aggregate economic indicators, but it 

does not provide a breakdown of the data, making it difficult to determine 

specific allocations. In addition, although the GSO did publish aggregate 

budget figures in its 1994 Statistical Yearbook, it did not do so in 1996.

State-owned enterprises (SOE) are a key component of the budget and of 

the country’s overall economy. The government has traditionally granted 

SOEs special advantages over other businesses through greater access to 

credit, control over markets, and other forms of indirect support. The IMF 

has reported that SOEs may account for as much as 40 percent of Vietnam’s 

GDP. However, the government releases very little information about how 

much it spends to support SOEs and their true financial conditions. Some 

donors have raised concerns about the financial viability of SOEs in 

Vietnam and have warned that without reliable information, financial 

problems may develop undetected.

Furthermore, the IMF’s monthly IFS reports do not contain a country page 

for Vietnam because the government has not released certain key 

indicators and other needed statistics. Country pages generally include 

data on exchange rates, money, banking, interest rates, production, prices, 

foreign reserves, international trade, balance of payments, and government 

and national accounts. Virtually all countries in the world publish their 

country pages in the IFS. According to IMF officials, the Vietnamese 
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Page 4 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

government has not done so in part because for many years Vietnam used a 

national accounts system modeled after that of the former Soviet Union 

and different from international reporting standards (the 1993 System of 

National Accounts) advocated by the IMF, the United Nations, and the 

World Bank. Vietnam adopted these standards in the late 1980s but has not 

fully implemented the system and has not been willing to release some 

statistics.

In 1998, the IMF said it was waiting for the government to approve 

publication of Vietnam’s country page that the IMF had prepared. 

Neighboring Cambodia and Lao PDR, both of which have also transitioned 

from the Soviet accounting system, have published their country pages 

since April 1996. Rwanda and Ethiopia, which had the lowest per capita 

incomes in the world1

 (about a third of Vietnam’s), have also been 

publishing their country pages.

The amount of information reported in the WDI provides another 

indication of a country’s overall data availability. The WDI contains up to 

526 series of data indicators for individual countries, covering economic 

and trade conditions as well as other demographic, environmental, and 

social indicators. Vietnam and Lao PDR, for example, provided data for 

only about 250 indicators between 1990 and 1995, while China, the 

Philippines, and Thailand provided over 400 indicators during the same 

period (fig. 1). In 1995, the median number of indicators available for the 

63 countries that the WDI classified as “low income” was 322. Vietnam 

provided 256 indicators for that year. Only 10 of the other low-income 

countries provided fewer indicators than Vietnam.2

1Human Development Report, UNDP, 1997.

2

Afghanistan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cambodia, Eritrea, Lao PDR, Liberia, Myanmar, Somalia, the Sudan, 

and Tajikstan.
B-279772

Page 5 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

Figure 1: Available Data in the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, 1998.

Note: All four comparison countries are in the immediate vicinity of Vietnam. Thailand, the Philippines, 

and Vietnam are similar in population size. China, Lao PDR and Vietnam have changed from the 

Soviet to the System of National Accounts accounting system.

Transparency of Data 

Collection and 

Reporting Methods

If the accuracy and quality of published economic and trade data are to be 

properly assessed, the methods used by the sources of the data to collect, 

analyze, and present the data must be transparent. In other words, data 

transparency means that methods should be clearly defined and explained 

and made readily available to data users. Without such information, users 

cannot adequately determine the value and meaning of the published 

figures. For example, data can be very different depending on whether it is 

developed through expert opinion, sampling, or census. If an agency relies 

on other agencies for data, it is also important that it disclose the sources 

and methods it uses to review and revise the data. 

In the case of Vietnam, information on data collection and reporting 

methods generally is either missing or unclear. The GSO does not publish 

the methods used to collect and process economic and financial figures 

and does not identify potential data limitations or gaps. International 

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Thailand The Philippines China Lao PDR Vietnam

Number of Data Indicators
B-279772

Page 6 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

agencies that re-publish the GSO’s figures in their reports also do not 

disclose the methods they use to evaluate or revise the data. This process is 

consistent with how these agencies report data for other countries. Most 

tables we reviewed cited their sources as the GSO or another Vietnamese 

agency and “staff estimates.” But the methods used to produce these staff 

estimates were not specified. We also found that even when staff estimates 

were cited, the published data often did not differ from the original GSO 

figure. However, the IMF recently reported estimates that differed from 

those published by the GSO.

The Country Commercial Guide primarily cited “unofficial estimates” as its 

sources, without reporting the data collection methods used, but its figures 

matched those we found in GSO publications. 

Quality of Available 

Data

Although many of the published figures from the GSO, IMF, the World 

Bank, and the Asian Development Bank corresponded with each other, one 

should not interpret this to mean that they are valid or correct, but simply 

that they came from the same source—the Vietnamese government (see 

app. I). 

According to international agency officials and other experts, the quality of 

available data on Vietnam has improved in recent years. They all agreed, 

however, that data on many key indicators such as GDP, growth rate, and 

foreign investments still contained several weaknesses. In a June 1998 

assessment of economic conditions in Vietnam, the UNDP concluded that 

Vietnam “is in the midst of an information crisis which needs to be urgently 

redressed to avert financial crisis”3

 and advocated more reliable data on 

the banking and corporate sectors in particular. Most banks are partially or 

wholly state–owned, and information on their debt levels, loan portfolios, 

and investments is not available in sufficient detail or is of questionable 

reliability. Some international agency officials, for example, have raised 

concerns that these banks have made many large loans to SOEs whose 

assets are largely overstated. The IMF has indicated that the banking sector 

in Vietnam is in worse condition than what the official data shows. Moody’s 

has also cited weaknesses with the banking system and “considerable 

uncertainty [arising] from the lack of transparency in the reporting of 

3

East Asia: From Miracle to Crisis, Lessons for Viet Nam, UNDP Viet Nam, 1998. Italics in the original.
B-279772

Page 7 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

official foreign exchange reserves” as key factors in giving Vietnam a 

low-credit rating.4

Vietnam does not effectively measure certain components of the economy 

in its calculations of GDP, which is a measure of the total output of a 

country’s goods and services. For example, GDP figures do not accurately 

reflect the large informal economy, small businesses, telecommunications, 

or the service sector. Similarly, official trade estimates do not include 

illegal smuggling of consumer goods, which has been estimated to account 

for a significant portion of the economy, according to IMF and other 

international agency officials. A State Department official also noted that 

this reporting problem occurs in other developing countries.

Other indicators reported by the government, on the other hand, may be 

overestimated. For example, the government announced that the economy 

grew at a rate of 5.8 percent in 1998, but IMF officials made their own 

in-country assessment and estimated a growth rate of between 3 and 

4 percent. The government also reported $1.9 billion in disbursements of 

foreign direct investments in 1998, but the IMF estimated only $600 million, 

and Moody’s estimated $800 million. According to a State Department 

official, Vietnam counts the value of land it contributes to joint business 

ventures as part of a foreign direct investment. The IMF does not. This may 

account for part of the discrepancy between official and independent 

estimates. It also illustrates the importance of transparency in data 

collection and reporting methods.

There are also a number of unexplained differences between reports 

published by different international agencies and even between those 

published by the same agency. One example is the average employment 

(the average number of employees per enterprise) in the private sector, an 

important component of Vietnam’s economy in terms of growth and 

development. According to the 1996 IMF staff report, average employment 

between 1992 and 1995 was between 7.4 and 5.1 employees. In another IMF 

staff report 16 months later, the average employment for the same period 

was reported as between 1.8 and 1.2 employees. It is not clear why a 

1992 figure was revised in 1998, but agency officials noted that there are 

often long delays and frequent adjustments of prior data by Vietnamese 

government sources. The data series cited its sources as the GSO and staff 

estimates.

4

Global Credit Research: Vietnam, Moody’s Investors Service, 1999.
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Page 8 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

International agencies have various efforts underway to help Vietnam with 

its data collection and reporting. The Asian Development Bank is 

developing a project to assist Vietnam in preparing its state budget and 

calculating GDP. The IMF has also been helping Vietnam develop its IFS 

country page. This aid has included providing preliminary analytical tables 

necessary for completing the country page in accordance with IMF 

methodology. Other ongoing assistance is geared mainly toward the 

collection of social and demographic data. Further monitoring will be 

needed to determine whether these efforts are effective in improving the 

quality of data.

In the late 1990s, the IMF developed and issued two sets of standards for 

data production and dissemination by its member states. The key 

objectives of one set of standards (known as the General Data 

Dissemination System) are to improve data quality; provide a framework 

for evaluating needs and setting priorities for data improvement; and guide 

countries in the provision of comprehensive, timely, accessible, and 

reliable economic, financial, and sociodemographic statistics. A more 

detailed set of standards (the Special Data Dissemination Standard) 

focuses on specific elements of data quality. A number of countries in East 

Asia, including the Philippines and Thailand, have voluntarily subscribed to 

the Special Data Dissemination Standard, but Vietnam and none of the 

poorest developing countries receiving loans from the World Bank’s 

International Development Agency have subscribed to this standard.

Agency Comments and 

Our Evaluation

We sent a draft of this report to the Departments of Treasury and State and 

to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Treasury and the CIA indicated 

that they had no comments. The Department of State provided oral 

comments. Generally, State concurred with our overall findings and 

conclusions. It also provided some technical comments, which we 

incorporated where appropriate.

Scope and 

Methodology

To assess the availability, transparency, and quality of published economic 

and trade data on Vietnam, we met with officials from a number of U.S. and 

international agencies, including the Departments of Commerce, State, and 

the Treasury, the Trade and Development Agency, the CIA, the IMF, the 

World Bank, the United Nations Statistics Division, and the UNDP. We 

conducted a literature search and contacted researchers in the field. In 
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Page 9 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

addition, we contacted the Embassy of Vietnam in Washington, D.C., and 

the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi.

We requested information on the methods agencies use to evaluate data 

and on the strengths and limitations of the data. We also compared data 

from different sources and from different time periods, concentrating on 

1992, 1994, and 1996. Although we did not conduct a systematic 

comparison of Vietnam’s data with that of other countries, we did make 

some comparisons with readily available data in the WDI.

We did not travel to Vietnam, although we did meet with a Vietnamese 

embassy counselor in Washington, D.C. We limited the documentation for 

this report to nonclassified information. In addition, we did not address 

perspectives from the business community regarding the availability and 

quality of Vietnam’s economic data.

We performed our review from March 1998 to March 1999 in accordance 

with generally accepted government auditing standards.

We are sending copies of this report to the Honorable Madeleine K. 

Albright, Secretary of State; the Honorable Robert E. Rubin, Secretary of 

Treasury; the Honorable William M. Daley, Secretary of Commerce; and 

appropriate congressional committees. Copies will also be made available 

to others upon request.

Please contact me at (202) 512-3092 if you or your staff have any questions 

or would like additional information. Major contributors to this report were 

John Oppenheim, Lê Xuân Hy, and Stan Kostyla.

Kwai-Cheung Chan

Director, Special Studies and Evaluations
Page 10 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

Appendix I

Selected Economic Statistics on Vietnam ApIenxdi

GDP, revenue, and expenditures in billions of Vietnamese dong Exports and 

imports in millions of dollars.

General

Statistical

Office 1996a

General

Statistical

Office 1994b

International

Monetary

Fund 1998c

International

Monetary

Fund 1996d

International

Monetary

Fund 1997e

United

Nations

1998f

World

Bank

1998g

Asian

Development

 Bank 1998h

Department

Commerce

of 1998i

1992

GDP nominal 

(current)

110,535 110,535 110,535 110,535 110,535

GDP real 

(constant)

33,991 33,991 33,987 33,991 33,991

Government 

revenue m 21,023 21,000 21,023 j

Government 

expenditure

23,711 25,800 25,121 j

Total imports, 

c.i.f. n 2,540 2,541 2,817 2,817 3,027 2,541 2,946

Total exports, 

f.o.b. o 2,581 2,581 2,475 2,475 2,918 2,581 k

1994

GDP nominal 

(current)

170,258 170,258 170,258 170,258 170,258 170,258

GDP real 

(constant)

39,982 39,982 39,982 39,980 39,982 39,982

Government 

revenuem 42,100 41,440 j 38,299

Government 

expenditure

46,600 46,121 j 33,355

Total imports, 

c.i.f. n 5,826 5,827 5,827 5,826 5,826 6,514 5,826

Total exports, 

f.o.b. o 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 k 4,054

1996

GDP nominal 

(current)

258,609 258,609 258,609 258,609

GDP real 

(constant)

47,888 47,888 47,888

Government 

revenuem 60,900 62,000p j 59,960

Government 

expenditure

63,900 66,417p j 45,800
Appendix I

Selected Economic Statistics on Vietnam

Page 11 GAO/NSIAD-99-109 Vietnam Economic Data

aStatistical Yearbook 1996.

bStatistical Yearbook 1994.

cStaff country report 98/30, April 1998.

dStaff country report 96/145, December 1996.

eDirection of Trade Statistics 1997.

f

Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division, 

Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, July 1998. 

gWorld Development Indicators 1998. 

hFrom http://internotes.asiandevbank.org/notes/vie/VIEOTH.htm.

i

1998 Country Commercial Guide, U.S. embassy, Hanoi.

j

Reported as missing.

kReported as c.i.f.

l

Estimated.

mIncluding grants.

nc.i.f.: cost, insurance, freight, that is, at the importer’s custom frontier

of.o.b.: free on board, that is, at the exporter’s customs frontier.

pBudgeted.

General

Statistical

Office 1996a

General

Statistical

Office 1994b

International

Monetary

Fund 1998c

International

Monetary

Fund 1996d

International

Monetary

Fund 1997e

United

Nations

1998f

World

Bank

1998g

Asian

Development

 Bank 1998h

Department

Commerce

of 1998i

Total imports, 

c.i.f. n 11,144l 11,644 13,668 11,144 12,870 11,144 11,000

Total exports, 

f.o.b. o 7,256l 7,337 6,933 7,256 k 7,255 7,000

(713020) Lret
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