|Strategic Forum 199 Head                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    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|Finding a Kashmir Settlement: The Burden of Leadershipby Teresita C. Schaffer                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
|Key Points                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|Although prospects for resolving the dispute betweenIndia and Pakistan over Kashmir may not seem encouraging, politicaldevelopments in Pakistan and Kashmir, as well as India's blossomingrelationship with the United States, hold some promise. Peace processesin other parts of the world offer lessons on possible approaches towardpeace in Kashmir.Three basic propositions should guide thinking about a Kashmir peaceprocess:Kashmir is only apart, albeit the most central and stubborn one, of the larger problem ofIndia-Pakistan relations.No party can enterthe process having defined in advance what a settlement will looklike.At this stage,crafting the process is more important than agreeing in advance on whatkind of end state is acceptable.These propositions imply that a peace process should address severalbaskets of problems rather than focusing exclusively on core issues. Toprevent premature and unrealistic expectations, the process should beginin discreet backchannels and become formal only after carefulpreparation.The Kashmiri people must be brought into the process in a serious way,which will require changes in the behavior of New Delhi andIslamabad.Finally, both sides should consider the proven value of the involvementof third parties in helping structure and manage a bilateral peaceprocess. The United States needs to plan seriously its role. Pakistanhas always favored international engagement, and the Indian governmentnow seems more open to such U.S. involvement.The combined talents of the people of India andPakistan, with the fitful help of a long list of others, have beentrying for over 50 years to resolve the Kashmir issue. This essay offersno ready-made answers but rather suggestions on where to begin to lookfor them. Experience with other recent peace processes teaches valuablelessons about how would-be peacemakers need to approach their task andthe ways in which third parties can help.The May 2003 announcement that India and Pakistan would resumediplomatic ties at the ambassadorial level and resume civil air linkscame after nearly a year-and-a-half of unusually bad relations.Transportation links had been severed and most normal contactssuspended. Although massive troop deployments along the internationalborder had been reduced since the high point in 2002, there is still ahuge military presence along the line of control and the working border.Violence had been high within the Kashmir Valley and nearby districts,and Indians were convinced that infiltration was continuing despite Pakistani assurances to the contrary to the United States. Attackselsewhere in India--Parliament, various Hindu temples--had left a residualbitterness there, and India's unwillingness to engage in talks withPakistan has produced a legacy of enormous frustration.But even during these generally unpromising times, there have beenpromising developments. The October 2002 elections on the Indian side ofKashmir, despite their obvious flaws, did shake up the politicalsituation and create an opening for change. More recently, gestures byleaders on both sides convey tentative interest in exploring greatercontact.1 Pakistan's stronger international position in general, and itschanged relationship with the United States since September 11, 2001, inparticular, could be an asset if Pakistan were to adopt a moredetermined search for a settlement. Perhaps most interesting is India'schanged attitude toward international involvement in its relations withPakistan. India has not embraced the idea of international mediation,but it has come to accept tacitly the notion that an outside country canplay a useful facilitating role. This should strengthen U.S. Governmentinterest in developing a strong and sustained diplomatic strategy formoving toward a real settlement.Searching for a ProcessThree propositions should be held in mind in considering aKashmir peace process. The first is that Kashmir is only a part, albeitthe most central and stubborn one, of the larger problem ofIndia-Pakistan relations. Those two issues--Kashmir and India-Pakistanties--have inflamed each other for five decades. Each can be managedseparately, but resolving either one requires solving the other as well.India and Pakistan have already made a start here. Indications are thatIndia has accepted partition and Pakistan's legitimacy. Indian PrimeMinister Atal Vajpayee's visit to the Minar-e-Pakistan almost 4 yearsago carried that message, and those few in India who contradict it arerecognized as a fringe element. Correspondingly, one must hope thatPakistanis have come to terms with the fact that India is an enduringreality. Neither the unrest in Kashmir nor the other challenges it facesoccasionally will lead India to fall apart and drop Kashmir into the lapof an expectant Pakistan. India is, and will remain, seven times thesize of Pakistan in population and substantially larger as a militarypower; Pakistan is, and will remain, far too large and militarilypowerful to be taken for granted in regional power relationships.Resolving the fundamental problem of India-Pakistan relations meansgoing beyond these basic propositions and working together to diminishthe unrelenting hostility that both sides now assume will alwayscharacterize their ties. This cannot be done by negotiation or byagreement, but it can be the end product of a dialogue that tackles themore specific issues that divide the two countries.Second, no party can enter a peace process having defined in advancewhat a settlement will look like. Indians, Pakistanis, and Kashmiris allhave their hopes, but the only certainty is that no one's hopes will bealtogether fulfilled. No participant in any recent peace process hasemerged completely satisfied. In the Middle East, Israel has had toaccept that a Palestinian state is going to be part of its neighborhood.In Ireland, the Ulster Protestants have had to accept a substantialCatholic and Irish Republic role in their political life. South Africacomes closest to an agreement that fulfilled one side's dream--but eventhere, the new government had to grant the white minority a significantrole in running the government during its first 5 years.Third, at this stage, crafting the process is more important thanagreeing in advance on what kind of end state is acceptable. But tocraft a successful process, the participants do need to agree on onebasic objective: that they all seek a peaceful and stable solution tothe issues that have bedeviled India-Pakistan relations for over half acentury, with Kashmir a critical element. The commitment and processneed to be robust enough to survive interruptions. All recent peaceprocesses have taken at least several years. All have suffered crisesand breakdowns.Successful peace processes have been structured to handle more than onetopic at a time. In Lahore, Pakistan and India established a workinggroup structure to ensure that their preferred topics (Kashmir andterrorism respectively) received appropriate prominence. It should bewell within the talents of both sides to give the Lahore arrangement afacelift and, if necessary, a new name.A process needs a story line--a brief description that all participantscan publicly accept. When Indian and Pakistani leaders met in the summerof 2001 at Agra, their hopes for a joint statement that would relaunchpeace efforts broke down. They were not able to combine, in a mannerthat satisfied both sides, Pakistan's concern with the "centrality ofKashmir" and India's primary issue of the "centrality of violence in the[Kashmir] Valley" and a "broad perspective on India-Pakistan relations."In a statement launching a long-term peace process, an inclusiveformulation would be advisable. Both Kashmir and violence in the valleytruly are central issues, and saying so will add a refreshing dimensionof honesty to the stale rhetoric both sides so often use.The lack of substance in earlier discussions on Kashmir has been anunderstandable frustration to Pakistanis, who conclude that, withoutviolence or international mediation, the Indians will simply stonewallthem. This is a serious problem, but another approach may be moreeffective. Those who have made progress solving other serious disputeshave found that while the most difficult issues need to be addressedfrom the start, it is usually impossible to resolve them before theprocess has had some initial successes. Experience gained in tacklingmore manageable parts of the dispute can provide political leaders withthe confidence and the political space that they need to deal with thetough ones and to sell painful compromises.The peace talks now under way between Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigerinsurgents are a good example. The agreement of the two sides on aceasefire in February 2002 started the current peace campaign. In the 7months between that agreement and the first round of talks, the twosides, and the Norwegians who are facilitating the talks, worked hard todefine an agenda that could ease them into talking about some of theirmore manageable problems, with the objective of reaching some earlynegotiating successes--that both sides could point to as they moved intomore difficult territory. At the end of the first round of negotiations,the two sides announced that they had agreed to set up joint commissionson demining and on postwar reconstruction. Both parties genuinely wantedto pursue these subjects, and they were willing to treat each other aspartners. This set the stage for a real political breakthrough in earlyDecember 2002, when both sides publicly agreed to "explore a solutionfounded on the principle of internal self-determination . . . based on afederal structure within a united Sri Lanka." This convoluted phrasemeant that both sides were willing to use terms that they had previouslyrejected in order to set an agreed framework for their discussions. Butit was their early work on limited, concrete issues that gave them theconfidence to start working on the more contentious and abstractpolitical issues. The peace talks have run into difficulties since thislandmark agreement, as has been the case with almost every othersuccessful peace process. But this does not detract from theiraccomplishment in finding a basis to start serious discussions.The Virtue of Small StepsPakistani leaders have felt for many years that they could notsimply put Kashmir at the end of the queue, however compelling the logicof tackling small issues first. What is needed, therefore, is a bridgeto cover a period in which discussions on Kashmir are likely toaccomplish little but need enough substance not to be an embarrassmentto Pakistan. One approach would be for both sides to work up a menu oftopics that can be discussed as icebreakers, to buy time and buildconfidence before tackling more fundamental issues. Candidate topicsmight be the economic status of different parts of Kashmir, the problemsof electricity and water supply in the state, the possibility of issuingvisas along the line of control, or how local commanders can communicateover problems on the ground. India's insistence on discussing violencein the valley strictly under the heading of terrorism has never beenacceptable to Pakistan. Perhaps the two sides could instead comparetheir records on numbers of incidents and people killed in the valleyand could issue joint statements of regret at the loss of civilian life.These discussions are sure to be difficult and awkward, but it is a wayto get started and can eventually lead to more productive dialogue--aprerequisite for a stable settlement.Another device for moving a Kashmir dialogue forward would be for bothsides to develop a list of goodwill gestures that they could make todemonstrate that this is a serious process. The goodwill gestures couldbe made individually or in pairs. Some gestures might be specificallyKashmir-oriented; they might include reducing troop strength oreliminating certain types of violence, such as attacks on weddingparties and other civilian targets. Other gestures might concernnon-Kashmir issues. The central point is that these gestures would beundertaken, not as a favor to the other side, but as a way of continuinga process that the Pakistan government believes is good for Pakistan andthat the Indian government likewise believes is good for India.These negotiating approaches presuppose that the two principal partiesare talking to each other; but, at the moment, that is not the case withIndia and Pakistan. Although that will now change, given the backgroundof the unusually deep bitterness in their relations, it makes sense toplan for an extended period during which India and Pakistan communicatethrough some means other than formal, bilateral meetings. Agreeing on astructure for discussions, setting an agenda for initial discussions onKashmir, and vetting possible goodwill gestures are all tasks that mightbetter be initiated through discreet back-channel contacts--either athird party or special representatives of the national leaders, whowould take care to stay out of the media. The last India-Pakistan summitfailed. It is thus especially important that the next bilateral meeting,whenever it occurs, be very well prepared and choreographed without theglare of publicity that will accompany formal bilateral talks.India and Pakistan cannot dispose of the Kashmir problem without involving the Kashmiris. The eventualKashmiri role in the process must be affirmed at the start. India needsto maintain an active Delhi-Srinagar dialogue including the forcesrepresented in the All Parties Hurriyet Conference.2 India also needs toacknowledge publicly that bothKashmiris and Pakistanis have roles in defining the Kashmir portion of asettlement and to allow communication between Kashmiri political figuresand Islamabad. Pakistan, for its part, could remove itself from theinternal Kashmiri political disputes. These are not easy steps, butwithout them it is hard to see how a real peace dialogue could takeshape.Pakistan's policy statements in the past few years have stressed thewishes of the Kashmiri people. But Pakistan needs to follow the logic of this policyif it is serious about peace. That means, most importantly, notencouraging those who would like to sabotage a dialogue between Delhiand Srinagar.An International Role?Pakistan has traditionally proposed that the internationalcommunity help India and Pakistan to overcome the obstacles to asuccessful peace process by brokering a deal. India traditionallyrejected such suggestions out of hand but is now, as indicated above,more receptive. Certainly one lesson of recent peace processes is that athird party can play a very useful role in a difficult negotiation--butonly when the direct disputants want to solve the problem and arewilling to work with the third party. Rather than argue about whether anoutside party should get involved with India and Pakistan, the realquestion is what needs to be done in a negotiation and whether there isa particular role that can be usefully relegated to a third party.The most interesting example is the Middle East. In light of recentevents, the negotiating process between Israel and the Palestinians doesnot look like a success story. However, if one examines the past 35years, it is beyond question that these two parties have taken importantsteps toward peace. The fact that they now find themselves in adisastrous downward spiral does not invalidate the lessons one can learnfrom the earlier, more successful parts of their experience.For nearly 10 years after the 1967 war, Israel rejected involvement byany third party, no matter how friendly, in the dialogue it hoped toachieve with its Arab neighbors. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's"shuttle diplomacy" in the mid-1970s demonstrated that a go-betweencould produce results. The big breakthrough came with Anwar Sadat's 1977visit to Jerusalem, which demonstrated conclusively that the Arabworld's most powerful leader was prepared to take Israel seriously. Thiswas of course an unmediated, bilateral gesture. But it launched aprocess in which a third party--the United States--played a critical role,and by the end of the Camp David summit, Israel had embraced the idea ofworking with the United States.Israel learned, in the course of those 10 years, the first major ruleabout mediation: it does not and cannot take the place of thenegotiating that must be done by the parties to a dispute. A thirdparty, however, can put fresh ideas on the table without any of thedirect participants' taking the risk of moving away from their officialpositions. In any serious peace process, someone needs to take theresponsibility for putting new ideas into play, and it is worth thinkinghard about how this can best be done--with or without an outsidepresence. An outsider can also provide the direct participants with anindependent judgment on whether their message is getting across.Pakistanis and Indians alike are generally confident that they can readthe signals of the other, but the history of recent crises is notreassuring.Consequences of FailureThis approach is not guaranteed to produce results. Indeed, as wehave seen all too tragically in both the Middle East and Ireland, goodresults are not immune to sudden and disastrous downturns. Sustaining anagreement is at least as difficult as reaching one.But the dynamic since 1989, in which Pakistan has used and encouragedviolence in the Kashmir Valley and occasionally deep in India and inwhich India has treated Kashmir as a law-and-order problem to be metwith repression, is sure to fail. The first victims of that failure willbe the Kashmiris, who already talk of having lost a generation. ButIndia and Pakistan also will suffer the consequences.Some argue that India can handle the violence in Kashmir, that it losesmore people to traffic accidents than it does to fighting in the valley,and that, as the stronger power, it need only stand firm, confident thatPakistan and the militants cannot undermine the Indian state. This is, in a narrow sense, true. India's billion-pluspeople and its 1.2-million-strong army are hardly being bled white, andthe rest of the country is enjoying progress and prosperity. Thebudgetary costs of the security operations in Kashmir aremanageable.There is also an argument that encouraging the Kashmiri insurgency is amanageable way for Pakistan to ensure that India does not consolidateitself in Kashmir at Pakistan's expense. The argument here holds thatIndia is structurally vulnerable to internal division and that thebudgetary cost of keeping the Kashmiri pot at a boil is well withinPakistan's means. This, too, is true in a narrow sense: Pakistan has nothad to devote much of its budget to direct costs in Kashmir.Both countries pay a terrible price nonetheless. India puts at risk itsbroader international ambitions. Undoubtedly, India will ultimately bewilling to pay this price if it sees no choice--if Pakistan doeskeep the pot boiling. In other words, Pakistan can probably goad Indiainto continuing a policy that squeezes the Kashmiris for many moreyears, but continued trouble will not lead to a Pakistani success in Kashmir.The price for Pakistan is much higher. It strikes at the heart ofPakistan's national security. A "hot" Kashmir drives away the investmentthat Pakistan so urgently needs to employ its mushrooming population. Itlocks into place a relationship of unremitting hostility with India anda defense burden that has robbed the country of desperately neededpublic investments in health and education. However skillfully the armyhas defended Pakistan's frontiers, military strength cannot protect thecountry against the threat to its security that comes from millions ofunemployed or underemployed, undereducated young people who come toadulthood seeing no way for themselves to make a better future for theirfamilies. The army has been called upon to try to compensate for otherweaknesses of state institutions, but it is most difficult to add thetask of nation-building to an already overburdened military. Add to thisthe badly stressed political system, in which leaders feel trapped intopolicies that they probably know will lead nowhere. Pakistan, given itsrevitalized relationship with the United States and potential new aidflows, may find the economic constraints less binding--but what a tragedyto use its resources for a never-ending fight, rather than investing in a brighter future for Pakistan's talentedpeople!Burden of LeadershipThere is a way out of this trap. However deep their differenceson other issues, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and PresidentPervez Musharraf need to become partners and find Kashmiri partners inseeking a settlement that is peaceful, honorable, and practical. Theparticipants will start with incompatible definitions of what that meansbut will work toward a definition they can all live with. Pursuing thisgoal is the ultimate test of leadership.Pakistan and India are the primary actors who need to learn from thisexperience, but they are not the only ones. The United States too needsto take it seriously and to plan a serious and sustained diplomaticengagement that will nurture the kind of peace process described here.This is a difficult task in which success is not guaranteed--especiallysince neither Pakistan nor India is unhappy enough with the status quoto make a significant change in policy. But the stakes are high enoughthat the United States should try despite this difficult outlook. Theprice of failure, or of inattention, is the certainty of more war scaresand the risk of nuclear miscalculation.Notes1An example of this is Pakistani Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali's call to Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee. See AmyWaldman, "Phone Call by Pakistan Leader May Mark a Thaw, India Says,"The New York Times, April 29, 2003.[BACK]2The All Parties Hurriyet Conference is an umbrella group of politicalorganizations favoring a change in the relationship with India on the Indian side of Kashmir. It includes pro-Independence and pro-Pakistangroups, some secular and some more religiously oriented.[BACK]
|Ambassador Teresita C. Schaffer is director of the South Asia Program atthe Center for Strategic and International Studies. She retired after a30-year career in the U.S. Foreign Service, having served as deputyassistant Secretary of State for South Asia, ambassador to Sri Lanka,and director of the Foreign Service Institute. Ambassador Schaffer maybe contacted at (202) 775-3171 or via e-mail at [email protected].