APPENDIX 9

- B. ADDITIONAL SHIPMENTS DATA FOR COMMERCIAL

PACKAGED BOILERS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

9

- B.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ . 9

- B

- 1

9

- B.2 HISTORICAL SHIPMENTS OF RESIDENTIAL BOILE RS

.............................. 9

- B

- 1

9

- B.3 HISTORICAL SHIPMENTS OF COMMERCIAL PACKAG ED BOILERS

...... 9

- B

- 3

9

- B.4 FRACTIONS OF EACH PR ODUCT CLASS

................................ ...................... 9

- B

- 3

9

- B.5 FRACTION OF COMMERCI AL PACKAGED BOILERS SHIPPED TO

COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS

................................ ................................ .............. 9

- B

- 5

9

- B.6 PROJECTED SHIPMENTS BY EQUIPMENT CLASSES

................................ . 9

- B

- 5

LIST OF TABLES

Table 9

- B.2.1 Adjusted Historical Residential Boiler Shipment Data

............................. 9

- B

- 1

Table 9

- B.3.1 Historical Commercial Boiler Shipment Data and Ratios of Commercial to Residential Boiler Shipments in 2007

............................... 9

- B

- 3

Table 9

- B.4.1 Fractions of Number of Models in the AHRI Model Directory

................ 9

- B

- 4

LIST OF FIGURE S

Figure 9

- B.5.1 Total Projected Shipments of Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr in the Base Case and

Each Standards Case

................................ ................................ .................. 9

- B

- 5 Figure 9

- B.5.2 Total Projected Shipments of Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boi ler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

in the Base Case and Each Standards Case

................................ ................ 9

- B

- 6 Figure 9

- B.5.3 Total Projected Shipments of Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr in the Base Case and

Each Standards Case

................................ ................................ .................. 9

- B

- 6

9

- B

- iAPPENDIX 9

- B. A DDITIONAL SHIPMENTS D ATA FOR COMMERCIAL

PACKAGED BOILERS

9

- B.1 INTRODUCTION

To calculate historical shipment s of commercial packaged boilers, the U.S. Department of Energy ( DOE ) use s the historical shipments of residential boilers from 1960 to 2013

, the historical shipment s of commercial packaged boilers in 2007 reported in the 2009 commercial packaged boiler final rule at 74 FR 36312 (July 22, 2009)

, and Air

- Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute ( AHRI ) model data for commercial packaged boilers from 2007 to 2013. a The following sections describe the se data sources and DOE’s methodology for deriving historical shipments of commercial packaged boilers

9

- B.2 HISTORICAL SHIPMENTS OF RESIDENTIAL BOILER S

DOE use s historical shipments data for domestic shipments and imports to populate its shipments model for residential boilers. The historical shipments data for all gas and oil boilers

were collected from AHRI

, Appliance Magazine (AM), and the Ene rgy Star program

. 1

, 2

, 3

DOE collected historical shipment d ata of total boilers (residential and commercial) disaggregated by fuel type from the Appliance Magazine as annual values for each year for the period 1960

‒ 1986 and 1990

- 2008

, and historical shipment data of total boilers (residential and commercial) f rom AHRI

, as annual values for each year for the period 1969

- 2000. 4

, 5

, 6

, 7

, 8

, 9

DOE also collected historical shipments and market penetration data of residential boilers for the period of 2003

‒ 201 2 from the Energy Star program

. 3 Additionally , AHRI provided historical shipments information for the period of 2003 through 2012.

To account for the fraction of shipments from non

- AHRI member companies, DOE applie s an adjustment factor to each year of the historical shipments. This adjustment fac tor is developed by comparing the model information from 2012 California Energy Commission (CEC), Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), and Energy Star directories to that of the AHRI reported values. The adjusted historical shipments of residential boilers by equipment classes are

shown in Table 9

- B.2.1

.

Table 9

- B.2.1 Adjusted Historical Residential Boiler Shipment Data

Year HWGB SGB HWOB SOB

a The Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), formed in 2008 by a merger of the Air

Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI) and the Gas Appliance Manufacturers Association (GAMA), is a North American trade association of manufacturers of air conditioning, heating, and commercial refrigeration equipment

. 9

- B

- 11960 113,719 29,051 107,984 32,009

1961 124,634 31,839 110,657 32,801

1962 129,850 33,171 104,090 30,854

1963 136,511 34,873 116,156 34,431

1964 160,186 40,921 126,389 37,464

1965 160,748 41,065 140,517 41,652

1966 149,673 38,235 113,788 33,729

1967 139,481 35,632 113,788 33,729

1968 149,914 38,297 112,324 33,295

1969 141,086 36,042 103,271 30,612

1970 131,455 33,582 119,532 35,432

1971 126,159 32,228 108,191 32,070

1972 124,955 31,921 127,703 37,854

1973 117,732 30,076 115,817 34,331

1974 98,391 25,135 69,465 20,591

1975 70,703 18,062 75,544 22,393

1976 90,366 23,085 101,013 29,942

1977 90,606 23,146 102,486 30,379

1978 101,200 25,852 82,513 24,458

1979 177,601 45,370 64,958 19,255

1980 235,677 60,131 36,617 11,697

1981 131,064 32,597 52,810 14,383

1982 120,822 29,287 58,362 14,553

1983 122,181 28,821 67,801 15,416

1984 150,152 34,503 76,093 15,700

1985 162,129 36,282 88,993 16,570

1986 166,840 36,308 110,459 18,438

1987 162,891 34,504 121,163 17,988

1988 166,801 34,382 159,982 20,921

1989 159,161 31,914 145,124 16,519

1990 173,082 33,711 120,970 12,446

1991 158,517 28,908 115,829 11,108

1992 160,574 27,347 142,439 13,427

1993 181,143 28,661 141,822 13,902

1994 200,605 32,167 169,145 16,544

1995 175,041 28,438 149,309 15,372

1996 185,736 30,564 160,690 17,349

1997 193,524 32,248 159,403 18,025

1998 174,776 29,484 148,110 17,504

1999 190,530 32,531 149,240 18,398

2000 213,366 36,904 135,650 18,555

2001 212,234 36,205 152,343 18,115

2002 214,286 34,836 153,567 16,814

2003 239,843 38,105 169,680 17,706

2004 264,588 36,846 167,444 19,460

2005 252,465 37,127 152,742 17,256

2006 229,231 30,243 127,531 16,016

2007 232,969 33,932 130,301 15,494

9

- B

- 22008 259,742 32,374 132,785 11,061

2009 204,370 23,540 98,626 9,616

2010 208,711 21,957 106,340 9,951

2011 218,112 25,615 99,611 9,084

2012 246,590 28,516 84,952 7,483

Note: “HWGB” is a Hot Water Gas Boiler. “SGB” is a Steam Gas Boiler. “HWOB” is a Hot

Water Oil Boiler. “SOB” is a Steam Oil Boiler.

9

- B.3 HISTORICAL SHIPMENTS OF COMMERCIAL PACKAGED BOILER S

DOE calculate s the ratio of commercial packaged boiler shipment s to residential boiler shipment s in 2007 using the historical shipment data for residential boilers in Table 9

- B.2.1 and historical shipment data for commercial packaged boilers in 2007 reporte d in the commercial packaged boiler 2009 final rule

. (74 FR 36312) DOE estimate s that the ratio of commercial to

re sidential boiler shipment s in Table 9

- B.3.1 remained relatively constant from 1960 to 2013.

Table 9

- B.3.1 Historical Commercial Boiler Shipment Data and Ratios of Com mercial

t o Res idential Boiler Shipment s in 2007

Fuel Type Commercial Packaged Boiler Shipments in 2007 Residential Boiler Shipments in 2007 Com/Res

Gas 23,400 266,901 8.8%

Oil 12,600 145,759 8.6%

9

- B.4 FRACTIONS OF EACH PR ODUCT CLASS

DOE disaggregate s t he oil

- fired and gas

- fired commercial packaged boiler shipments to each product class using the number of models in the AHRI Directory of Certified Product

Performance . The fractions of product classes in the AHRI Directory are summarized in Table 9

- B.4.2

. Table 9

- B.4.1 summarizes the abbreviations of each product class.

Table 9

- B.4.1 Name Abbreviations by Product Class

Abbreviation Full product name

SGNDHW Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

LGNDHW Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

SONDHW Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

LONDHW Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

SGNDST Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packag ed Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

9

- B

- 3LGNDST Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr

SONDST Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

LONDST Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr

SGMDHW Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

LGMDHW Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

SOMDHW Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

LOMDHW Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

SGMDST Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commerci al Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

LGMDST Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

SOMDST Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

LOMDST Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Table 9

- B.4.2 Fractions of Number of Models in the AHRI Model Directory

Year SGNDHW LGNDHW SONDHW LONDHW SGNDST LGNDST SONDST LONDST

2007 4.5% 4.1% 3.1% 5.6% 7.1% 10.0% 2.9% 8.0%

2008 9.1% 2.7% 2.2% 4.0% 8.4% 7.1% 2.0% 5.6%

2009 8.5% 2.8% 2.2% 4.0% 7.9% 7.1% 2.0% 5.7%

2011 5.6% 2.1% 1.6% 3.1% 9.6% 6.1% 1.5% 4.3%

2012 4.7% 2.1% 1.6% 3.0% 9.0% 6.0% 1.5% 4.2%

2013 4.6% 2.0% 1.6% 2.9% 11.9% 6.6% 1.5% 4.2%

2014 7.7% 1.6% 2.5% 0.1% 8.9% 3.7% 1.3% 0.0%

Year SGMDHW LGMDHW SOMDHW LOMDHW SGMDST LGMDST SOMDST LOMDST

2007 11.2% 3.4% 7.7% 4.0% 7.2% 5.6% 7.6% 8.0%

2008 21.6% 3.6% 7.2% 4.2% 5.5% 4.7% 5.8% 6.3%

2009 23.5% 3.0% 7.3% 3.5% 5.6% 4.7% 5.8% 6.4%

2011 34.5% 4.1% 5.7% 2.9% 4.9% 4.1% 4.9% 4.9%

2012 35.8% 5.3% 5.6% 2.9% 4.8% 4.0% 4.8% 4.8%

2013 35.6% 5.1% 5.2% 2.5% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 4.7%

9

- B

- 42014 42.1% 8.9% 4.9% 3.8% 4.5% 3.6% 3.5% 2.9%

9

- B.5 F RACTION OF COMMERCIAL PACKAGED B OILERS S HIPPED TO

C OMMERCIAL B UILDINGS

DOE derive s commercial boiler shipments by building types from the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey ( CBECS 2003 ) and Residential Energy Consumption Survey ( RECS ) 2009 data. DOE assume s that boilers in commercial and residential buildings

that are larger than 10,000 sq

. ft

. are commercial packaged boilers and that multiple boilers could

be used per commercial building depending on the size of the building

. Results show that 5.5
percent of commercial packaged boilers were shipped to the residential sector

.

9

- B.6 PROJECTED S HIPMENTS BY EQUIPMENT C LASSES

Figure 9

- B.6.1 to Figure 9

- B.6.3 show total projected shipments of mechanical draft gas

fired hot water commercial packaged boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr, mechanical draft oil

- fired hot water commercial packaged boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr, and mechanical draft

oil

- fired hot water commercial packaged boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr in the base case and under

each standards case , respectively

. Because the elasticity is modeled as a delayed replacement of a boiler, the projection for the standards case s shows a decline in the early years, but an increase in later years once the delayed replacements are finally made. DOE understands that the elasticity parameter decreases over time, so the impact of standards on shipments diminishes.

Figure 9

- B.6.1 Total Projected Shi pments of Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr in the

Base Case and Each Standards Case 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Shipments (thousand)

Base EL 1 EL 2 EL 3

EL 4 EL 5 EL 6 EL 7

9

- B

- 5Figure 9

- B.6.2 Total Projected Shipments of Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500 ,000 Btu/hr in the Base Case and Each Standards Case

Figure 9

- B.6.3 Total Projected Shipments of Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr in the

Base Case and Each Standards Case 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Shipments (thousand)

Base EL 1 EL 2 EL 3

EL 4 EL 5 EL 6 EL 7

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Shipments (thousand)

Base EL 1 EL 2 EL 3

EL 4 EL 5 EL 6 EL 7

9

- B

- 6REFERENCES

1. Gas Appliance Manufacturers Association (GAMA), Updated Shipment Data for Residential Furnaces and Boilers, personal communication. April 25, 2001, 2005.

2. U.S. Appliance Industry Statistical Review

. Appliance Magazine , Multiple year.

3. U.S. Environm ental Protection Agency: ENERGY STAR, Unit Shipment Data Archives, (Last accessed September, 2013.)

< http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=partners.unit_shipment_da ta_archives >

4. U.S. Appliance Industry Statistical Review

. Appliance Magazine , 1970: pp. 53.

5. U.S. Appliance Industry Statistical Review

. Appliance Magazine , 1979: pp. 41.

6. U.S. Appliance Industry Statistical Review

. Appliance Magazine , 1987.

7. U.S. Appliance Industry Statistical Review

. Appliance Magazine , 2000.

8. U.S. Appliance Industry Statistical Review

. Appliance Magazine , 2009.

9. Kendall, M., Comment #24 on the Efficiency Standards for Furnaces and Boilers (GAMA Shipment Data) Dock et No. EE

- RM/STD

- 01

- 350, April 10, 2002. Gas Appliance Manufacturers Association. Arlington, VA.

10. Richman, E. E., Current and Projected Commercial Space Heating, Space Cooling, and Water Heating Equipment Use in the United States: Update 1995, January , 1995. Pacific Northwest Laboratory. Richland, WA.

11. Science Applications International Corporation, Development of Issues Papers for GHG Reduction Project Types: Boiler Efficiency Projects, Table 2, January 7, 2009.

< http://www.climateactionreserve.org/wp

- content/uploads/2009/03/future

- protocol

development_boiler

- efficiency.pdf >

12. U U.S. Department of Energy: Energy Inform ation Administration, Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey, 2003. (Last accessed November, 2013.)

< http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2003/index.cfm?view=microdata >

13. U.S. Department of Energy: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey: 2009 RECS Survey Data, 2013. (Last accessed March, 2014.)

< http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2009/ >

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