Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

1

Population Division Working Paper #61

Evaluating Components of International Migration:

The Residual Foreign Born

Joseph M. Costanzo

Cynthia Davis

Caribert Irazi

Daniel Goodkind

Roberto Ramirez

DAPE Task Team #5 – Unauthorized Migration Evaluation Team (UMET)

Population Division

U.S. Census Bureau

Washington, D.C. 20233-8800

June 2002
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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Synopsis

On March 1, 2001, the U.S. Census Bureau issued the recommendation of the Executive

Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy (ESCAP) that the Census 2000 Redistricting Data not be

adjusted based on the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.). By mid-October 2001,

the Census Bureau had to recommend whether Census 2000 data should be adjusted for

future uses, such as the census long form data products, post-censal population estimates,

and demographic survey controls. In order to inform that decision, the ESCAP requested that

further research be conducted.

Between March and September 2001, the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates

(DAPE) research project addressed the discrepancy between the demographic analysis data

and the A.C.E. adjusted estimates of the population. Specifically, the research examined the

historical levels of the components of population change to address the possibility that the

1990 Demographic Analysis understated the national population and assessed whether

demographic analysis had not captured the full population growth between 1990 and 2000.

Assumptions regarding the components of international migration (specifically, emigration,

temporary migration, legal migration, and unauthorized migration) contain the largest

uncertainty in the demographic analysis estimates. Therefore, evaluating the components of

international migration was a critical activity in the DAPE project.

This report focuses on the evaluation of the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimated residual

foreign-born population (including both unauthorized and quasi-legal migrants) in 1990

and 2000. The estimates shown here were calculated in conjunction with estimates of other

components of international migration: legal permanent migration and legal temporary

migration. These components of international migration, along with assumed deaths and

emigrants, are subtracted from a total foreign-born population yielding a residual count.

This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized

migrants. This estimate also includes people who are here legally but are not yet

included in the official estimates of legal migrants and refugees. It also includes people

in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on their legal migration requests. Because

the estimate was derived from a residual methodology, any limitations in the methods or

in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

In addition, our assumptions include a great deal of uncertainty, especially for small

migration components. Therefore, the residual may be quite different from the actual

number of unauthorized migrants.

According to our calculations, the estimated residual foreign-born population was 3,765,906

in 1990 and 8,705,419 in 2000. The residual foreign born were less likely to be male (48.4

percent) in 1990 than in 2000 (54.2 percent). Of the residual foreign born, 26.8 percent

were from Mexico in 1990 and 44.5 percent were from Mexico in 2000.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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Outline

Summary

Background

Methods

1. Method 1: Woodrow’s 1990 DA Estimates of the Residual Foreign-Born Population,

1990

2. Method 2: Ahmed’s Preliminary Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born Counted in the

1990 Census

3. Method 3 (1990): DAPE Estimates of the Residual Foreign-Born Population, 1990

4. Method 3 (2000): DAPE Estimates of the Residual Foreign-Born Population, 2000

Limitations

Results

Next Steps

Appendix

A. Tables

A-1. Estimates of Residual Foreign Born by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 1990 (Census Level)

A-1a. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 15 percent undercount,

by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 1990

A-1b. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 20 percent undercount,

by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 1990

A-2. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by DA Race & Hispanic Origin, Sex, and

Age: 1990 (Census Level)

A-2a. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 15 percent undercount,

by DA Race & Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age: 1990

A-2b. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 20 percent undercount,

by DA Race & Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age: 1990

A-3. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 2000 (Census

Level)

A-3a. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 15 percent undercount,

by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 2000

A-3b. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 20 percent undercount,

by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 2000

A-4. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by DA Race & Hispanic Origin, Sex, and

Age: 2000 (Census Level)

A-4a. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 15 percent undercount,

by DA Race & Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age: 2000

A-4b. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 20 percent undercount,

by DA Race & Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age: 2000

A-5. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by Place of Birth and Sex, 1990

A-6. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by Place of Birth and Sex, 2000
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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B. Reference Materials: Bibliography

1. Demographic Analysis–Population Estimates (DAPE) Research Project Reports Related

to Evaluating Components of International Migration

2. Census Bureau Technical Documentation Related to Estimating the Residual ForeignBorn Population

3. Non-Census Bureau Technical Documentation on Measuring the Residual ForeignBorn Population and Unauthorized Migration

C. Comparing Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born with Estimates Others Have Made of

the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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Estimating the Residual Foreign-Born Population: 1990 and 2000

Summary

Estimates of the residual foreign-born population shown here were calculated in

conjunction with estimates of other components of international migration: legal

permanent migration and legal temporary migration. These “known” components of

international migration, along with assumed deaths and emigrants, are subtracted

from a total foreign-born population yielding a residual count. This residual foreignborn population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This

estimate also includes people who are here legally but are not yet included in the

official estimates of legal migrants and refugees. It also includes people in "quasilegal" status who are awaiting action on their legal migration requests. Because the

estimate was derived from a residual methodology, any limitations in the methods or

in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual

number. In addition, our assumptions include a great deal of uncertainty, especially

for small migration components. Therefore, the residual may be quite different from

the actual number of unauthorized migrants.

According to our calculations, the estimated residual foreign-born population

counted in the 1990 census was 3,765,906. Assuming a 15-percent undercount rate

(discussed later in this report) yields a population of 4,430,478 in 1990.

Selected characteristics of the residual foreign-born population counted in Census

1990 include:

• 1.8 million (48.4 percent) were male

• 1.2 million (32.8 percent) were ages 18 to 29

• 3.5 million (92.2 percent) were Nonblack

• 1.9 million (50.7 percent) were Hispanic

• 1.0 million (26.8 percent) were from Mexico

According to our calculations, the estimated residual foreign-born population

counted in the 2000 census was 8,705,419. Assuming a 15-percent undercount rate

yields a population of 10,241,669 in 2000.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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Selected characteristics of the residual foreign-born population counted in Census

2000 include:

• 4.7 million (54.2 percent) were male

• 3.5 million (40.0 percent) were ages 18 to 29

• 8.1 million (93.0 percent) were Nonblack

• 5.4 million (61.5 percent) were Hispanic

• 3.9 million (44.5 percent) were from Mexico

(See Tables in Appendix A for more details by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and

place (country) of birth for both 1990 and 2000 estimates, but recall that these

estimates are not of the unauthorized migrant population.)

The basic methodological approach for both 1990 and 2000 was the residual

method. A decennial census sample file was used for the foreign-born population

base as of April 1st. Estimates of legal permanent residents (LPRs), temporary

migrants, and Special Agricultural Workers (SAWs) and pre-1982 entrants into the

U.S. (LAWs) were subtracted from the foreign-born population base.1 Assumptions

were made about emigration and mortality of the legal and IRCA-legalized

populations. Race and Hispanic origin distributions were assigned by age, sex, and

place (country) of birth.2 Population undercount assumptions were not included in

this methodology. However, estimates of the total residual foreign-born population

are shown here at different assumed levels of undercoverage.

Background

Since the 1980s, empirically-based estimates have been developed to measure the

population of persons illegally present in the United States. Prior to these studies,

estimates of the unauthorized population ranged from one to twelve million.3

The most straightforward and simplest measure of the unauthorized population has

been the residual method. This method essentially removes the legal component of

the census or survey-based foreign-born population, leaving behind the unauthorized

component as a residual. Estimates obtained using residual methods most often are

 

1 Both the Special Agricultural Workers (SAWs) and pre-1982 entrants (LAWs) were legalized under the

Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA).

2

 Assignment of race and Hispanic Origin based on state-specific foreign-born populations would have

been a refinement of this allocation technique, given the geographic concentration of the foreign-born

population in the U.S. However, this approach was not used due to time constraints of this project.

3

 ”Residual methods generally were not employed with data collected before the 1980s because the

1980 census was the first decennial census in which a sizable enumerated unauthorized migrant

population could be detected through demographic analysis.” (Fay, Passel, and Robinson, 1988 cited

in Bean, 2001, p. 412)
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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derived from federal data providers: the U.S. Census Bureau and the Immigration

and Naturalization Service (INS). Using more than one data source is required given

that no one source of data includes all the necessary components for directly

estimating the unauthorized population.

Adjustments to these estimates have been made since the early 1980s. Researchers

have incorporated new components into their estimates of unauthorized migration.

(Woodrow-Lafield, 1991; Ahmed, 1995; Passel & Clark, 1998; Bean et al., 2001) In

an effort to improve the validity of the measures, we have adjusted characteristics of

immigrants entering under the Special Agriculture Workers (SAWs) program,

emigrants leaving the United States, and nonimmigrants (temporary admissions not

for permanent residence).

Although the INS is the U.S. federal agency responsible for providing the official

estimates of the unauthorized population, the U.S. Census Bureau must include

assumptions about any migrants not counted in the official legal immigration data.

As part of the Bureau’s evaluation of Census 2000 results and the determination as to

whether the Census 2000 counts should be adjusted for purposes other than

reapportionment and redistricting, the Population Division at the Census Bureau has

reviewed the reliability of its demographic analysis and population estimates

methodology, and the underlying components of population change, including

components of international migration.

This report provides an evaluation of the residual foreign-born component of

international migration as it relates to the U.S. resident population on April 1, 1990

and April 1, 2000. This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the

number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people who are here

legally but are not yet included in the official estimates of legal migrants and refugees.

It also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on their legal

migration requests. Because the estimate was derived from a residual methodology,

any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other migration components

are reflected in the residual number. In addition, our assumptions include a great

deal of uncertainty, especially for small migration components. Therefore, the

residual may be quite different from the actual number of unauthorized migrants.

Methods

In addition to detailing our own approach to estimating the residual foreign-born

population (of which the unauthorized population is a part), this report highlights two
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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other methods used at the Census Bureau during the 1990s to estimate the residual

foreign-born population as of 1990.4

In order to answer the question placed before us, “Is the assumed flow of

unauthorized migration realistic?”, the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates

(DAPE) team reviewed the related research conducted in the late 1980s and in the

1990s at the Census Bureau as well as other studies addressing this issue. (See

Appendix B for details.)

We identified two methods as having been used in the Bureau’s estimation of the

residual foreign-born population as of 1990. These methods will be referred to as: 1)

Woodrow’s 1990 DA estimates (1991); and 2) Ahmed’s 1990 preliminary census

estimates (1995).

Each of the methods relies on residual techniques. In a residual technique, one or

more identifiable components are subtracted from a comprehensive universe (such as

the decennial census’ total foreign-born population) yielding a residual estimate of a

population for which no direct measure exists.

Method 1: Woodrow’s 1990 DA Estimates of the Residual Foreign-Born

Population, 19905

Woodrow (1991) developed preliminary estimates of the 1990 residual foreign-born

population as part of the 1990 Demographic Analysis Evaluation Project.6 This

project was undertaken and completed prior to the internal release of 1990 census

sample data, therefore, 1990 census data were not used in these calculations.

Woodrow estimates the residual foreign-born population residing in the United States

on April 1, 1990 using two approaches yielding “direct” and “implicit” estimates, as

termed by Woodrow. For the first approach, a residual method was applied to the

1989 Current Population Survey (CPS) to derive the size of the residual foreign-born

population. This CPS-based estimate was then extended to reflect the size of the

residual foreign-born population on April 1, 1990 by assuming a linear population

growth rate. Because of the uncertainties associated with the sampling and nonsampling errors as well as census under-coverage, a range of possible estimates was

 

4

Earlier Census Bureau documentation used such terms as "undocumented," "illegal," or

"unauthorized" migrants. The methods and results supporting these documents were actually reflecting

the residual foreign-born population.

5

See Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. 1991. “Demographic analysis evaluation project D2: Preliminary

estimates of undocumented residents in 1990.” (1990 Decennial Census, Preliminary Research &

Evaluation Memorandum no. 75) (22 October 1991).

6

 This analysis provided the unauthorized population number used for the 1990 DA. The 1990 DA

number was used later in the construction of the 2000 DA estimates released in March 2001.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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derived. Finally, from the range of possible values, a (mid)point estimate was

determined for six separate census undercount scenarios. The preferred undercount

scenario of 25 percent yielded a midpoint estimate of 3.3 million residual foreignborn persons.7

For her second approach (yielding an “implicit” estimate) Woodrow carried forward

the 1980 estimate of the residual foreign-born population and estimated change in

the unauthorized and IRCA-legalized populations between 1980 and 1990 based on

alternative post-1980 demographic assumptions from previous CPS-based estimates.

This approach requires estimates of: 1) 1980 residual foreign-born population

estimate; 2) the number of IRCA legalizations (LAWs and SAWs); and 3) the net

change during the period.

Based on her analysis Woodrow determined likely ranges under each method, with a

1990 estimate of 3.3 million (total residual foreign-born population in the United

States) falling in the middle of each range. When considering census undercoverage

(20 to 30 percent, as estimated by Woodrow) and the effect of CPS sampling and

estimation errors, the estimates range from a low of 1.9 million to a high of 4.5

million.

From her 1989 November CPS data carried forward to April 1, 1990, Woodrow

estimated a residual foreign-born population of 2.1 million was counted in the 1990

census (with a range of 1.6 million to 2.7 million).

Some assumptions may widen the lower end of the ranges even further. For

example, the residual method based on the 1989 CPS assumed that no SAWs were

counted among the foreign born because the number of SAWs then known to be

living in the U.S. could not be confirmed (1991, p. 16; p. 29). Yet, Woodrow cited

1.3 million SAW applications from June 1, 1987 to November 30, 1988. The

inclusion of a portion of these SAWs would reduce the level of Woodrow’s proposed

range.

Woodrow assumed an annual net flow of about 200,000 residual foreign born during

the 1980s.8 She based this figure on previous research using November 1979, April

1983, June 1986, June 1988, and November 1989 CPS data. With each new CPS

supplement Woodrow supported the range of between 100,000 and 300,000 net

annual growth in the residual foreign-born population.

 

7

 Woodrow (1991) suggested that plausible levels of undercoverage in the census were between 20

and 30 percent.

8

 A net annual flow of 200,000 unauthorized migrants was used in the Bureau’s postcensal population

estimates during this period.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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In her 1991 report, Woodrow cautioned the interpretation and use of her preliminary

estimates citing the following issues:

1. Accuracy of the prior research (e.g., 2.1 million residual foreign-born persons

counted in the 1980 census);

2. Additional (and unaccounted for) categories of foreign born in the U.S.;

3. Assumptions about the foreign-born undercount;

4. Lack of availability (at the time of her research) of 1990 census data; and

5. Definition and applicability of “usual place of residence” to this population.

Method 2: Ahmed’s Preliminary Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born Counted

in the 1990 Census

Following the preliminary Woodrow report (1991), 1990 census results were used to

improve residual techniques. In the early 1990s, Bureau work on unauthorized

migration (Fernandez, E.W. and J.G. Robinson, 1994; Robinson, J.G., 1994) and

emigration (Ahmed, B. and J.G. Robinson, 1994) led to the first extensive internal

report regarding the residual equation and how components were derived to estimate

an unauthorized population counted in the 1990 census.

Assuming no coverage or estimation error in the census or in the components,

Ahmed (1995) estimated that 942,000 residual foreign born were counted in the

1990 census. This figure is well below the 3.3 million total residual foreign-born

population put forward in Method 1 by Woodrow (1991), as well as Woodrow’s

estimated 2.1 million enumerated residual foreign-born population as of 1990.

The Ahmed method uses residual techniques based on the 1990 decennial census,

INS data on legal admissions and IRCA legalizations, and components of change.

The 1990 census data represent the counted foreign-born population as of April 1,

1990, whereas the other components yield the expected legal population at the

census date. These include the number of legal immigrants and refugees (and deaths

to and emigration of these populations), foreign students, and persons illegally present

who legalized under IRCA.9 This technique assumes that the difference between the

census-based total foreign-born estimate and the legal population will reflect the

residual foreign-born population as counted in the 1990 census.

In his estimates, Ahmed restricts his population to those who entered between 1980

and 1990. This has an effect on both the legal and IRCA-legalized population

estimates used in his method.

 

9

 From the INS IRCA-legalized files, Ahmed selected cases with status granted or pending and having

complete information on age, sex, and country of birth, year of entry, and intended state of and

county of residence: 1,658,986 LAWs and 1,084,233 SAWs. (Ahmed 1995, pgs. 5-6)
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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The legal population (on the INS legal admissions files) consists of both new arrivals

and adjustees. The new arrivals’ year of entry is assumed to be that of the INS file; in

other words, those new arrivals included in the 1980 INS file are assumed to have

entered the U.S. in 1980. Adjustees were present in the U.S. prior to admission to

permanent legal status, and have years of entry earlier than the year in which they

appear on the INS files. Ahmed does not take this into account, but assumes that the

new arrivals and the adjustees have years of entry corresponding the INS file year.

The IRCA-legalized population who entered the U.S. prior to 1980 was also excluded

from his method.10 He states an assumption that anyone who had come before 1980

would have been legalized under IRCA. However, the LAW population (pre-1982

entrants) would for the most part have entered the U.S. prior to 1980 (given the pre1982 requirements as set in the IRCA legislation), and would be excluded from the

1980-1990 restricted universe in Ahmed’s work. Had Ahmed included this

population, his estimates of the residual foreign-born population would have been

even lower, as this IRCA-legalized component is part of the legal population

subtracted from the total foreign-born population counted in the census.

For a comparable universe, the legal immigrant population (in the INS Legal

Permanent Resident files) should have been restricted to the legal immigrant

population with years of entry 1980 to 1990. By including the additional persons

(who adjusted from a nonimmigrant status, but who arrived prior to 1980) in the legal

population yields a significantly decreased residual foreign-born population count.

In his calculations of legal immigration from the INS legal admissions files, Ahmed

appears to have included an additional quarter of admissions (adding January through

March 1980). The addition of this extra quarter overestimates the legal population.

Unlike the DAPE Method (discussed below), Ahmed does not apply emigration and

death rates to the IRCA-legalized population as he does with the legal population.

Fortunately, Ahmed does age the IRCA-legalized population an average of two years

(from an averaged application year of 1988) to April 1990.

Ahmed restricted the temporary migrant population to the foreign student population

for his work. Had this population been more broadly defined (to include other

temporary residents such as H-1B workers) the overall residual foreign-born

population estimate would have been lower.

 

10 When describing the LAW and SAW populations Ahmed takes into account IRCA-legalized people

regardless of when they entered the U.S. However, in his calculations (shown in the formulas on

pages 1 and 8 of his report) he does not appear to include the pre-1980 entrants, a large segment of

the LAW population.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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The Ahmed estimates were never incorporated into any official estimates produced

by the Census Bureau.

Method 3 (1990): DAPE Estimates of the Residual Foreign-Born Population, 1990

The 1990 residual foreign-born estimate was calculated in conjunction with estimates

of other components of international migration: legal permanent migration and legal

temporary migration. These “known” components of international migration, along

with assumed deaths and emigrants, are subtracted from a total foreign-born

population yielding a residual count. This residual foreign-born population is not an

estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people

who are here legally but are not yet included in the official estimates of legal migrants

and refugees. It also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action

on their legal migration requests. Because the estimate was derived from a residual

methodology, any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other

migration components are reflected in the residual number. In addition, our

assumptions include a great deal of uncertainty, especially for small migration

components. Therefore, the residual may be quite different from the actual number

of unauthorized migrants.

Numbers presented here are based on the entire residual foreign-born population

(including some legal populations such as refugees and asylum applicants).

Characteristics attributable to the residual foreign born may not be the same as for

the unauthorized migrant population.

The DAPE Team estimates 3,765,906 residual foreign born were counted in the 1990

census. Adjusting for an assumed 15-percent net undercount rate, we estimate that

as of April 1, 1990 the total residual foreign-born population would be 4,430,478.

Adjusting for an assumed 20-percent net undercount rate, the estimated 1990

residual foreign-born population would be 4,707,383.

(Table A-1 of Appendix A shows the total residual foreign-born population as of April

1, 1990 by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, but recall that these estimates are not

of the unauthorized migrant population.)

The foreign-born population can be depicted as:

FB = L + U

where FB is the total foreign born, and L and U are the legal and unauthorized

migrant components, respectively.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

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The residual foreign-born population in 1990 (R1990) was estimated using the

following formula:

R1990 = [R1980 - (E1980-1990 + D1980-1990)] + FB1980-1990 - [(LPR1980-1990 + IRCA1980-1990) -

 (E1980-1990 + D1980-1990)] - T1987-1990

where a 1980-based estimate of the residual foreign born (R1980) is carried forward to

April 1, 1990 through emigration and death. FB is the 1990 Census total foreign born

who entered the U.S. between 1980 and 1990. LPR is the legal permanent residents

(legal admissions) component for the 1980-1990 period and IRCA refers to the IRCAlegalized population. These two “legal” populations are carried forward to April 1,

1990 through E (emigration) and D (death).11

T refers to temporary migrants (nonimmigrants) who are not affected by emigration or

death because they are assumed to be continuously replaced by new temporary

migrants of similar characteristics. The years of entry were limited to the past three

years (1987-1990) to reflect the short-term residence of most temporary migrants.12

Similar to Method 2 discussed earlier, the DAPE Method uses residual techniques

based on the 1990 decennial census, INS data on legal admissions, and components

of change. The 1990 census data represent the counted foreign-born population as

of April 1, 1990, whereas the latter two components yield the expected legal

population at the census date. These include the number of legal migrants (including

most refugees who adjusted to LPR status), temporary migrants, and people illegally

present who legalized under IRCA,13 deaths to and emigration of legal migrants and

the IRCA-legalized population. This technique relies on the simple assumption that

the difference between the census-based total foreign-born estimate and the legal

population will reflect the size of the residual foreign-born population on the census

date.

Adjustments were necessary to address errors in the two primary sets of data, the

census data and the INS figures. Any response misreporting, such as citizenship

status, through a misinterpretation of the question being asked or through an

intentional misrepresentation, is not addressed by this method.

 

11 No legal migrants are assumed to have become unauthorized during the decade.

12 For more information on the treatment of temporary migrants, see Working Paper #60.

13 Unlike Ahmed’s (1995) method (Method 2 here), this method does not include cases pending

authorization in the IRCA-legalized population.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

14

About 900,000 refugees were estimated to have entered the U.S. during the 1980s.

Approximately 800,000 adjusted status during this period. The remaining 100,000

are assumed to be included in the residual amount shown here.14

Unauthorized Population Universe

One of the major problems in measuring unauthorized migration is defining the

population. Of the unauthorized migrants physically present in the U.S. at any given

time, some proportion would not be considered “usual residents” of the United

States according to the definitions of enumeration used in the U.S. census. It is

assumed that the DAPE Method does not include “sojourner” or “commuter”

migrants—people who enter the U.S. for temporary (even daily) lengths of stay. (See

Passel (1988) for more information.)

1990 Census Modified Sample File

A 1990 sample file was created for use by all DAPE teams working on international

migration components. This file contains race, Hispanic origin, sex, age, place of

birth, citizenship status, and other information. Race and Hispanic origin were

assigned, based on the 1990 sample file distribution of the foreign born who entered

the U.S. between 1980 and 1990, to components that did not have these

characteristics.

This allocation method proportionally assigned race and Hispanic origin by place of

birth, year of entry, age, and sex of the foreign born.15

People for whom no place of birth was reported (808,158 weighted cases) were

assigned a place of birth based on the proportional distribution by state of the

foreign-born population with reported place of birth in the 1990 sample file.

The total foreign-born population estimate from the 1990 census file, used in these

calculations, is 19,767,316.16 For the purpose of this analysis, the foreign-born

population was restricted to those whose year of entry into the U.S. was between

1980 and 1990 (8,663,627).

For the year of entry question on the 1990 census, a multiple-choice format that

offered ten pre-determined entry periods of various durations was used. However,

 

14 In evaluating this work in the near future, this “humanitarian” component will be treated separately

helping to make possible a more precise estimate of the unauthorized population.

15 For the DAPE work, countries of birth of the foreign born were grouped into 40 countries and

regions. (See Appendix A for tables with details by place (country) of birth.)

16

 Of the total foreign-born population (all years of entry), 488,570 were in group quarters in 1990.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

15

the Census 2000 questionnaire provided a write-in field limited to four spaces to

represent the actual year of arrival.

Legal Permanent Residents (LPRs) – INS Administrative Records, 1980-199017

The LPR files used for this analysis were created from the INS microdata where some

allocations for age and sex have been made. The fiscal year-based INS files (October

1

st to September 30th) have been converted to “census years,” April 1st to March 31st

.

For new arrival cases, year of admission (into legal permanent resident status) was

assumed to equal year of entry into the U.S. For adjustees, year of nonimmigrant

admission has been used in place of year of admission for year of entry into the U.S.

as these people resided in the U.S. prior to obtaining LPR status. Of these cases,

anyone with a year of entry prior to 1980 has been excluded from our analysis

(542,245 cases).

Although some researchers have questioned the completeness of the records in the

INS LPR files (Warren and Passel, 1987), we have not assessed the quality of the INS

data for this project. Instead, we recognize that any incompleteness could lead to

some legal residents being included in the residual foreign-born estimate.

IRCA-Legalized Population (LAWs (INA Section 245A) & SAWs (INA Section 210))

IRCA-legalized data for our 1990 estimates come from the 1992 Legalization

Summary Public Use Tape (LSPUT) file of IRCA LAWs and SAWs, processed through

August 12, 1992.18 The file consists of 3,040,948 applications (1,763,434 LAWs and

1,277,514 SAWs). Of these, 1,031,404 LAWs (58.5 percent) and 1,256,015 SAWs

(98.3 percent) entered the U.S. between 1980 and 1990. Our 1990 estimate

included only those people who were granted LPR status through August 12, 1992

(942,078 LAWs and 1,057,293 SAWs). Our 2000 estimate (described below)

included those cases processed throughout the remainder of the 1990s.

For the DAPE Method we assume that all the SAWs were resident in the United

States as of Census Day, April 1, 1990. Of the 1.3 million SAW applications for

legalization, 9,177 (0.7 percent) had a state of residence outside the 50 States and

Washington, DC. (Smith, et al., 1996) Other researchers have taken different

approaches to address the issue of whether SAWs were present or not at the time of

the census, assuming that some portion of the SAW population (certainly greater than

 

17 Refer to Working Paper #59 for detailed information on the legal files used in this analysis.

18 The INS discontinued the data system used to process the IRCA-related applications through

August 12, 1992. By this time, the INS had processed 3.0 million applications or 88 percent of the

LAW and 84 percent of the SAW cases. (Smith, et al., 1996)
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

16

0.7 percent) was not present in the U.S. at the time of the 1990 census. (Woodrow,

1991; Clark et al., 1994; Bean, 2001)

Pending cases (22,906 LAWs and 18,144 SAWs), who entered the U.S. between

1980 and 1990 are not counted in the IRCA-legalized population for our 1990

estimate, and, therefore, are included in the residual foreign-born population count

for 1990. Denied cases are assumed to be counted in this residual-based foreignborn estimate as well.

Because the age of IRCA applicants was recorded as their age at the date of

application, we aged this population two years to the census date, April 1, 1990. The

period of application for LAWs was May 5, 1987 to May 4, 1988, and June 1, 1987

to November 30, 1988 for SAWs.

The LSPUT file contains incomplete data on race and Hispanic origin detail for the

IRCA-legalized population. Therefore, we have assigned these characteristics, based

on the foreign born whose entrance to the U.S. was 1980 to 1990 from the 1990

Census Modified Sample File, by age, sex, country of birth, year of entry, and

citizenship status (non-citizens only).

Death to and Emigration of Legal and IRCA-Legalized Populations

Calculations of mortality and emigration rates were based on information provided by

the Emigration DAPE Team. 19 This team developed the assumptions used for

estimating emigration and mortality of the foreign born.

For estimating emigration, rates were assigned by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and

country of birth. For estimating mortality, for each year of entry (beginning in 1980),

survival rates were calculated by age group according to amount of time between

year (time) of entry and the census year (for instance, age 0 in mid-year 1980 would

have 9.75 years exposure through April 1990).20

Temporary Migrants (Nonimmigrants)21

For the 1990 estimates of international migration, data on temporary migrants come

from the 1990 Census Modified Sample file. People were considered to be

temporary migrants depending on their education (attainment and school

enrollment), industry, occupation, employment status, income, age, year of entry,

and household relationship.

 

19 See Working Paper #62 for detailed information on the emigration and mortality data and

assumptions used in this analysis.

20 Persons 100 years of age and above are assumed to have the same mortality rates (by sex).

21 Refer to Working Paper #60 for detailed information on temporary migrants (nonimmigrants).
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

17

Not all countries are included (for example, Cuba and USSR), because people from

those countries were assumed to most likely be refugees, and therefore were not

counted as temporary migrants.

According to the Temporary Migrant DAPE research, 487,453 temporary migrants

were counted in the 1990 census.

1980 Residual Foreign-Born Population Carried Forward to 1990

For our 1980 residual foreign-born population base, we relied on figures that Passel

(1988) provided for his 1980 census-enumerated residual foreign-born population

estimates. Passel estimated that about 2.1 million residual foreign born were

included in the 1980 census (1.1 million men and 1.0 million women).

We allocated age, country of birth, race, and Hispanic origin to this population from

the 1990 sample file distribution of the foreign born who entered the U.S. prior to

1980. This estimate was carried forward to April 1990 through emigration and death

yielding a residual foreign-born population estimate of 1,770,505.

Some unauthorized migrants, included in the 1980 estimate, would eventually

acquire legal status through IRCA in the 1980s. These migrants have not been

removed from the 1980 estimate carried forward to 1990, and thus the result is a

residual foreign-born rather than unauthorized population as of 1990.22 (See the

Limitations section of this report.)

Undercount Rates

Previous research on estimating unauthorized migration has included varying

assumptions about the undercount of the foreign-born population and the rates of

undercoverage by legal status. (Passel, 1988; Woodrow, 1991; Bean, 2001) Rates of

undercount in the census for the unauthorized population have been assumed to be

higher than for the legal population, and have generally fallen between 15 and 20

percent, with undercount rates for men being higher than for women. (Bean, 2001)

Appendix A includes four tables (A-1a, A-1b, A-2a, A-2b) showing our estimated

1990 residual foreign-born population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin with

assumed rates of undercount at 15 and 20 percent. These rates were simply applied

to the residual foreign-born population estimates shown in Table A-1, and were not

integrated into the development of the estimates themselves.

 

22 This limitation will also affect the 2000 estimate. (This will be discussed in greater detail later in this

report.)
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

18

Method 3 (2000): DAPE Estimates of the Residual Foreign-Born Population, 2000

The 2000-based estimates of the residual foreign born were calculated using the

1990 methodology (for the 1980 to 1990 period) plus the resulting 1990 estimate

carried forward to April 1, 2000. As with the 1990 estimates, unauthorized migrants

and quasi-legal migrants (e.g., refugees not adjusted to LPR status) are included in the

residual-based estimate.

Our initial attempt at estimating the quasi-legal migrant population suggests that

about 1.7 million (19.5 percent) were included in the residual foreign-born estimate

for 2000. This estimate includes (estimated number):

• refugees (who have not yet adjusted status) and asylum applicants (awaiting claim

adjudication) (200,000 and 400,000, respectively)

• migrants deported during the decade (200,000)

• population legalizing (adjusting status) during the decade (900,000)

Numbers presented here are based on the entire residual foreign-born population

(including some legal populations such as refugees and asylum applicants).

Characteristics attributable to the residual foreign born may not be the same as for

the unauthorized migrant population.

The DAPE Team estimates 8,705,419 residual foreign born were counted in the 2000

census. Adjusting for undercount, we estimate that as of April 1, 2000 the total

residual foreign-born population was 10,241,669 (15 percent undercount). This

estimate was used for the revised DA estimate for 2000.

(Table A-3 of Appendix A shows the total residual foreign-born population as of April

1, 2000 by age, sex, and race and Hispanic origin, but recall that these estimates are

not of the unauthorized migrant population.)

1990 Methodology Applied to 2000

Our 2000 method uses residual techniques based on preliminary 2000 census data,

INS data on legal admissions 1990 to 2000,23 and components of change. The 2000

census data represent the counted foreign-born population as of April 1, 2000,

whereas the latter two components yield the expected legal population at the census

date. These include the number of legal migrants (including most refugees who

adjusted to LPR status), temporary migrants, and persons illegally present who

 

23 INS data on legal immigrants and refugees are available through fiscal year 1999 (September 1999).

A population as of April 1, 2000 is needed for our analysis. An October 1999-March 2000 population

was estimated using the distributions of the FY 1999 file.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

19

legalized under IRCA who were processed after August 12, 1992,24 deaths to and

emigration of legal migrants and the IRCA-legalized population. This technique relies

on the simple assumption that the difference between the census-based total foreignborn estimate and the legal population will reflect the size of the residual foreignborn population on the census date.

2000 Census Preliminary Sample File

The total foreign-born population estimate from the Census 2000 Preliminary Sample

File, used in these calculations, was 31,098,946.25 For the 2000 estimates, the

foreign-born population was restricted to those whose year of entry into the U.S. was

between April 1990 and March 2000 (12,518,098).

The Census 2000 file used for these estimates (and those of other international

migration components in the DAPE project) may differ from final census files

processed later in 2001/2002.26

1990 Residual Foreign-Born Population Carried Forward to 2000

The 1990 estimate of 3,765,906 should be reduced due to death (162,830),

emigration (391,275), and adjustment of status of unauthorized migrants included in

the 1990 residual foreign-born population who adjusted throughout the 1990s (about

900,000). However, the population legalizing during the decade was not removed

from this 1990 residual foreign-born population carried forward to 2000.27

 

24 The 2000 method picks up where the 1990 method left off with regard to the IRCA-legalized

population. As of August 12, 1992, 22,906 LAWs and 18,144 SAWs were pending authorization.

With the use of published INS data (INS, 2000), cases identified as pending in the IRCA files were

“matched” to actual cases approved post-August 1992. As limited detail was included in the published

data, characteristics were assigned to these cases based on IRCA LSPUT information used in the 1990-

based estimates. It is assumed that the only reason why these cases were pending was administrative

in nature, and, therefore, had no bearing on the applicants’ characteristics.

25

 Of the total foreign-born population (all years of entry), 543,435 were estimated to be in group

quarters in 2000.

26 Final edit specifications and weighting schemes had not yet been fully developed for use in these

preliminary sample files.

27 Beginning in October 1994, section 245(i) of the Immigration & Nationality Act (INA) allowed

unauthorized residents who were eligible for legal immigrant status to remain in the U.S. and adjust to

permanent resident status by applying at an INS office and paying a fee. Prior to October 1994, most

unauthorized residents were required to leave the U.S. and acquire a visa abroad from the

Department of State as they are again now. (INS, pA.3-2, 2000)
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

20

Limitations

Although the residual technique used to derive estimates of the residual foreign born

is based on the simple idea of subtracting the expected legal population from the

counted foreign-born population at the census date, the approach suffers from a

number of limitations. These limitations stem from anomalies and shortcomings in

the data sets used, assumptions made to correct for data deficiencies or to derive

intermediate estimates, and the exclusion of components that may prove to be

relevant in the changing migration environment.

Inclusion of Quasi-Legal Migrants in the Residual Foreign-Born Estimate

The most important limitation to the methodology and the resulting estimates

described in this report pertains to the inclusion of quasi-legal migrants (e.g., refugees

not adjusted for LPR status) in the residual foreign-born estimate. This limitation

appears to have a greater impact on the 2000 estimate than on the 1990 estimate.

This is actually not a limitation for the use of this estimate in calculating coverage

since legal status is not relevant.

Data Quality and Other Data Source Limitations

The precision of our results will depend upon the quality and completeness of the

data used, namely the decennial census files, and the administrative records of legal

and IRCA-legalized populations provided by the INS.

Other data source limitations include:

• For the 2000 estimate, final Census 2000 sample data were not available at the

time of this project;

• Individual years-of-entry from 1990 census were unattainable given questionnaire

response options;

• Accuracy of 1980 residual foreign-born estimate was unknown; and

• Emigration and mortality rates were assumed to be the same regardless of legal

status.

Methodological Limitations

• Limitations of other international migration components are carried over into our

estimates;

• Flow (INS) data were modified to be combined with stock (Census) data;

• For calculations, assumed 100 percent census coverage of foreign born regardless

of legal status;

• For the 1990 estimate, assume 100 percent of SAWs were present in U.S. on

April 1, 1990;
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

21

• Some “humanitarian” populations (i.e., non-adjusted refugees and asylum

applicants) were omitted from legal population, and, therefore, included in

residual foreign-born count;

• IRCA-legalized 1990 estimate was restricted to people granted permanent legal

status (Phase II decisions); pending cases were included in the residual foreign

born in 1990 estimate;

• Applicability of “usual residence” unclear for migrants;

• Assumed no difference in race or Hispanic origin identification between

administrative records and census; and

• Approximated characteristics of the 1980 residual foreign-born population based

on the foreign born who reported pre-1980 entries in the 1990 Census.

Time Constraints

The DAPE project began in late April 2001, and was originally scheduled for

completion by July 31, 2001. Extensions were granted through September 10th for

the DAPE task of estimating the residual foreign-born population as of 1990 and

2000.

However, lack of detailed, historical documentation on both source files and

assumptions and methods led to delays in meeting the milestones of the overall

project timeline. In addition, several technical obstacles resulted due to limited

documentation.

Comparisons of our 1990 estimates with the official (original) 1990 DA work by

Woodrow (1991) could not be made given different data sources and limited time to

replicate her CPS-based work while preparing our census and administrative recordsbased estimates.

Therefore, future work should include a validation of the 1990 DA work by

Woodrow, along with additional research into alternative methods and data by other

researchers working on this issue. (Espenshade, 1995a; Passel, 1998; Warren, 2000;

Bean, 2001)

Impact of Legislation on Migratory Patterns and Quality of Data Collection

Legislation such as IRCA and more recent legislation in the 1990s including the

changes to the Immigration & Nationality Act (INA) in 1990 and migration-related

legislative changes in 1996 (e.g., Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant

Responsibility Act (IIRIRA) (Pub. L. 104-208); Antiterrorism and Effective Death

Penalty Act (AEDPA) (Pub. L. 104-132) impact both migratory patterns and the

quality of data collection. Movement across borders (and into legal statuses) are

facilitated and impeded by legislation. Data collection instruments and the type of
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

22

data collected also change with new legislation. These changes, such as with the

IRCA legalizations (and related data), affect our estimates as well.

Undercount Rates

Undercount rates are used in this report only for illustrative purposes. Nowhere

within this report has there been a comprehensive evaluation of undercount rates for

the foreign-born population by legal status or otherwise. Our 1990 and 2000

estimates are shown in Appendix A tables for both census (enumerated) and DA

(“true” or resident) levels. In line with contemporary research on undercoverage of

the foreign born, undercount rates of 15 and 20 percent (DA level estimates) are

presented along with the census-level estimates of the residual foreign-born

population as of 1990 and 2000.

From all appearances, the 2000 census is more complete and accurate than 1990.

The advertising campaign, partnership programs, and use of the Master Address File

(MAF) may have contributed to the improved coverage of the 2000 census.

Assessing the coverage of the foreign-born and both the legal and residual foreignborn populations is important to developing improved estimates of each population.

As part of the Post Enumeration Survey (PES) for the 1990 census, undercount rates

were not calculated for the foreign born in particular. Race and Hispanic originspecific rates were derived that can be used to approximate such rates for the foreign

born. Harder still is the development of undercount rates by legal status. Again,

researchers outside the Census Bureau have analyzed this issue and have provided

their own rates by legal status. (Binational Study, 1997; Bean, 2001).

Anecdotal evidence suggests that census coverage improved between the 1990 and

2000 decennial censuses. Hence, undercount rates for the residual foreign-born

population are assumed to have improved between 1990 and 2000.28

IRCA-Legalized Population

Our 1990 residual foreign-born estimate includes the IRCA-legalized population

through August 12, 1992. People granted legal status after April 1, 1990 (but before

August 13, 1992) would be included in our 1990 residual-based estimate as legal,

thereby reducing the “true” unauthorized population present on Census Day, April 1,

1990.

 

28

 The revised DA estimates used a 15-percent net undercount rate assumption for the residual foreign

born in 2000, and a 20-percent net undercount rate assumption for the residual foreign born in 1990.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

23

Results

We put forward estimates of the residual foreign-born population residing in the

United States as of April 1, 1990 and April 1, 2000, as shown below in Table 1.

Table 1. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, by DA Race and Sex: 1990 and 2000

Subject 1990 2000

Total Male Female Total Male Female

Counted in Census 3765906 1822406 1943500 8705419 4717733 3987686

 Black 293708 150284 143424 611499 317121 294378

 Nonblack 3472198 1672122 1800076 8093920 4400612 3693308

Assumed 15-percent

Undercount 4430477 2144007 2286470 10241670 5550275 4691395

 Black 345539 176805 168734 719411 373084 346327

 Nonblack 4084938 1967202 2117736 9522259 5177191 4345068

Assumed 20-percent

Undercount 4707383 2278008 2429375 10881774 5897166 4984608

 Black 367135 187855 179280 764374 396401 367973

 Nonblack 4340248 2090153 2250095 10117400 5500765 4616635

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also

includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods

or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

1990 Estimates

According to our calculations shown above in Table 1, the estimated residual foreignborn population counted in the 1990 census was 3,765,906. Assuming a 15-percent

undercount rate yields a residual foreign-born population of 4,430,478 in 1990.

Of the 3.8 million, 1.8 million (48.4 percent) were male (Table A-1); 1.2 million (32.8

percent) were ages 18 to 29 (Table A-1); 3.5 million (92.2 percent) were Nonblack

(Table A-1); 1.9 million (50.7 percent) were Hispanic (Table A-2); and 1.0 million

(26.8 percent) were from Mexico (Table A-7).

2000 Estimates

According to our calculations shown above in Table 1, the estimated residual foreignborn population counted in the 2000 census was 8,705,419. Assuming a 15-percent

undercount rate yields a residual foreign-born population of 10,241,669 in 2000.

Of the 8.7 million, 4.7 million (54.2 percent) were male (Table A-3); 3.5 million

(40.0 percent) were ages 18 to 29 (Table A-3); 8.1 million (93.0 percent) were

Nonblack (Table A-3); 5.4 million (61.5 percent) were Hispanic (Table A-4); and 3.9

million (44.5 percent) were from Mexico (Table A-8).
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

24

(See Appendix A for extensive detail by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and place

(country) of birth for both 1990 and 2000 estimates, but recall that these estimates

are not of the unauthorized migrant population.)

Our new 1990 estimate, also with an assumed undercount rate of 25 percent, is 5.0

million, well above the Woodrow 1990 DA figure of 3.3 million.29 To clarify,

Woodrow’s DA estimate was computed based on November 1989 CPS data, prior to

the availability of the 1990 census sample files.

Our estimates are based on a modified 1990 census sample file, and include legal

migrants not explicitly accounted for in other legal migrant components of this

project.

Comparing the DAPE 1990 and 2000 Estimates with Other Findings (Woodrow, 1991;

Ahmed, 1995; Warren, unpublished; Bean, 2001; Passel, 2001)

Although not included here, a comprehensive analysis of our estimates would

comprise an evaluation beyond total population counts to include reviews by specific

countries of birth, age, sex, race/Hispanic origin, year of entry, and other components

of migration (used to derive these estimates). 30

Even though the sources used similar techniques, estimates of the size of the residual

foreign-born population varied widely. Ahmed (Method 2) placed the figure at

942,000 while Woodrow (Method 1) found the number to be 2.1 million counted in

the 1990 census.31

Discrepancies among estimates, in comparing our 1990 estimates with both Ahmed

(1995) and Woodrow (1991), can be summarized as follows:

1. Adjustments for Undercount: Not all methods included an adjustment for

undercount of the foreign born or by legal status. Neither the DAPE Method nor

Ahmed’s make assumptions about undercount in the calculations of the residual

foreign-born population. Woodrow (1991) assumes undercoverage in the census

and makes allowances for sampling and estimation error in the CPS.

 

29

 Woodrow’s (1991) DA-level estimate of 3.3 million was calculated based on an assumed 25 percent

undercount of unauthorized migrants in the 1990 census.

30

 Such a review is forthcoming.

31 As mentioned previously, Woodrow did not make use of 1990 census data for her estimates. She

estimated the residual foreign-born population as of November 1989 and carried them forward

(through emigration and death) to April 1, 1990.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

25

2. Death and Emigration: Estimates of deaths to and emigration of legal immigrants

were calculate for both Method 1 and Method 2, but figures were not always

incorporated in the calculations of the residual foreign-born population.

3. IRCA LAWs and SAWs: The figures for LAWs and SAWs differed greatly from one

source to another. These differences may account for significant discrepancies in

the estimates of the residual foreign-born population across methods.

4. Country-Specific (Negative) Estimates: While the range of derived figures for the

residual foreign-born population may be plausible, evaluating the total number

reveals some inconsistencies. For a number of countries the estimates are

negative, and this is true across methods. On the other hand, the derived

estimates for other countries seem over-estimated. For example, the Ahmed

report places the size of residual foreign-born population from Mexico at about

160,000 or 17 percent, which appears to be low. We estimated that 27 percent

of the residual foreign born in 1990 was from Mexico; our 2000 estimate was

closer to 45 percent from Mexico. Most studies indicate that Mexico constitutes a

substantial proportion of the unauthorized population, around 55 percent.

(Warren, 2000; Bean, 2001)

In comparison with our 2000 residual estimate, Warren (unpublished) suggests 6.7

million unauthorized migrants were counted in the 2000 census, and that when

undercount of the foreign born was taken into consideration (by legal status) the

unauthorized resident population count rose to 7.6 million.

Bean (2001) estimates about 2.5 million Mexicans were residing in the U.S. in March

1996 yielding an estimated 3.9 million unauthorized migrants from Mexico (when

carried forward to March 2000). Through our calculations of the counted residual

foreign born in 2000, we estimated 3.9 million Mexicans (44.5 percent of the

residual foreign born in 2000).32 Bean also estimates a total unauthorized population

of about 7.1 million in 2000.

According to the 1990 residual results, the 18-49 age group accounted for 58 percent

of the total population; for the 2000 estimate the proportion of the same age group is

70 percent.

Analysis of the sex structure, on the other hand, shows the number of residual

foreign-born women greater than the number of residual foreign-born men in 1990;

for the 2000 results, more residual foreign-born men were living in the country. The

greater number of women in 1990 was unexpected as migrants were

disproportionately male, but it may be attributed to the effect of the IRCA legalization

program. Because more men benefited from the amnesty than women and were

 

32

 Bean assumes that 55 percent of the unauthorized population would be Mexican in 2000.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

26

subsequently allowed to bring their families to the U.S., it is conceivable that the

number of residual foreign-born women was higher than the number of residual

foreign-born men in 1990. This explanation is consistent with the higher number of

Hispanic women aged 18 to 49.

Next Steps – Improvements in Current Approach and Alternative Methods of

Measurement

Research will be conducted in the near future on the extent to which the 1990 and

2000 estimates can be revised to more accurately reflect the unauthorized migrant

component of the residual foreign-born population. Some minor changes are readily

apparent and relatively simple to incorporate into the current methodology.

Our selection of a single method by which to estimate the unauthorized population

for the DAPE task should not be misinterpreted as a clear preference for one

methodology.

The DAPE project was endeavored to be an “integrated” process. In other words, all

of the task teams that were responsible for estimating a single component of

international migration (e.g., legal, unauthorized, and temporary migrants, and

emigrants) were required to integrate their work (methods, assumptions, and data

sources) wherever possible.

Estimates of unauthorized migration (flow) and unauthorized migrants (stock) that use

alternative data sources (e.g., apprehensions data (Espenshade, (1995a); 3-Card

Method (GAO, 1998)) should be explored to test the validity and reliability of the

estimates produced here.

Alternative assumptions and methods developed outside the Bureau should be

examined more closely as well. Warren (2000 and unpublished), Bean (2001), and

Passel (1998 and 2001) have provided extensive detail on the estimation of the

unauthorized population.

Their research provides invaluable information that should be referenced regularly as

the Census Bureau revisits its estimates of the residual foreign-born and unauthorized

migrant populations.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

27

Appendix A. Tables*

This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized

migrants. This estimate also includes people who are here legally but are not yet

included in the official estimates of legal migrants and refugees. It also includes

people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on their legal migration requests.

Because the estimate was derived from a residual methodology, any limitations in the

methods or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the

residual number. In addition, our assumptions include a great deal of uncertainty,

especially for small migration components. Therefore, the residual may be quite

different from the actual number of unauthorized migrants.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on

their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

28

Table A-1. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 1990 (Census Level)*

Age All Races Black Nonblack

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 3765906 1822406 1943500 293708 150284 143424 3472198 1672122 1800076

0-17 1081957 567688 514269 85713 43374 42339 996244 524314 471930

18-29 1236149 625957 610192 109435 59313 50122 1126714 566644 560070

30-49 953514 423177 530337 75283 37944 37339 878231 385233 492998

50+ 494286 205584 288702 23277 9653 13624 471009 195931 275078

 50-64 312027 137116 174911 14314 6539 7775 297713 130577 167136

 65+ 182259 68468 113791 8963 3114 5849 173296 65354 107942
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on

their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

29

Table A-1a. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 15 percent undercounta, by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 1990*

Age All Races Black Nonblack

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 4430478 2144007 2286471 345539 176805 168734 4084939 1967202 2117736

0-17 1272891 667868 605022 100839 51028 49811 1172052 616840 555212

18-29 1454293 736420 717873 128747 69780 58967 1325546 666640 658906

30-49 1121781 497855 623926 88568 44640 43928 1033213 453215 579998

50+ 581513 241864 339649 27385 11356 16028 554128 230507 323621

 50-64 367091 161313 205778 16840 7693 9147 350251 153620 196631

 65+ 214422 80551 133872 10545 3664 6881 203878 76887 126991

a

Census level divided by 0.85

Table A-1b. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 20 percent undercounta, by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 1990*

Age All Races Black Nonblack

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 4707383 2278008 2429375 367135 187855 179280 4340248 2090153 2250095

0-17 1352446 709610 642836 107141 54218 52924 1245305 655393 589913

18-29 1545186 782446 762740 136794 74141 62653 1408393 708305 700088

30-49 1191893 528971 662921 94104 47430 46674 1097789 481541 616248

50+ 617858 256980 360878 29096 12066 17030 588761 244914 343848

 50-64 390034 171395 218639 17893 8174 9719 372141 163221 208920

 65+ 227824 85585 142239 11204 3893 7311 216620 81693 134928

a

 Census level divided by 0.80
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on

their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

30

Table A-2. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by DA Race and Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age: 1990 (Census Level)*

Age All Races Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic API Non-Hispanic AIAN Hispanic

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 3765902 1822406 1943496 918409 458058 460351 205391 105923 99468 727482 380561 346921 5392 2774 2618 1909228 875090 1034138

0-17 1081957 567689 514268 151556 78321 73235 58607 29513 29094 217227 112987 104240 1319 699 620 653248 346169 307079

18-29 1236149 625957 610192 240827 136120 104707 79048 42522 36526 245942 135046 110896 1918 1102 816 668414 311167 357247

30-49 953513 423177 530336 297584 149466 148118 54049 28146 25903 225094 110700 114394 1510 757 753 375276 134108 241168

50+ 494283 205583 288700 228442 94151 134291 13687 5742 7945 39219 21828 17391 645 216 429 212290 83646 128644

 50-64 312025 137115 174910 142287 62446 79841 8415 3933 4482 30082 17559 12523 392 126 266 130849 53051 77798

 65+ 182258 68468 113790 86155 31705 54450 5272 1809 3463 9137 4269 4868 253 90 163 81441 30595 50846
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on

their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

31

Table A-2a. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 15 percent undercounta, by DA Race and Hispanic Origin,

Sex, and Age: 1990*

Age All Races Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic API Non-Hispanic AIAN Hispanic

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 4430473 2144007 2286466 1080481 538892 541589 241636 124615 117021 855861 447719 408142 6344 3264 3080 2246151 1029518 1216633

0-17 1272891 667869 605021 178301 92142 86159 68949 34721 34228 255561 132926 122635 1552 822 729 768527 407258 361269

18-29 1454293 736420 717873 283326 160141 123185 92998 50026 42972 289344 158878 130466 2256 1296 960 786369 366079 420291

30-49 1121780 497855 623925 350099 175842 174256 63587 33113 30474 264816 130235 134581 1776 891 886 441501 157774 283727

50+ 581509 241862 339647 268755 110766 157989 16102 6755 9347 46140 25680 20460 759 254 505 249753 98407 151346

 50-64 367088 161312 205776 167396 73466 93931 9900 4627 5273 35391 20658 14733 461 148 313 153940 62413 91527

 65+ 214421 80551 133871 101359 37300 64059 6202 2128 4074 10749 5022 5727 298 106 192 95813 35994 59819

a

 Census level divided by 0.85

Table A-2b. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 20 percent undercounta, by DA Race and Hispanic Origin,

Sex, and Age: 1990*

Age All Races Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic API Non-Hispanic AIAN Hispanic

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 4707378 2278008 2429370 1148011 572573 575439 256739 132404 124335 909353 475701 433651 6740 3468 3273 2386535 1093863 1292673

0-17 1352446 709611 642835 189445 97901 91544 73259 36891 36368 271534 141234 130300 1649 874 775 816560 432711 383849

18-29 1545186 782446 762740 301034 170150 130884 98810 53153 45658 307428 168808 138620 2398 1378 1020 835518 388959 446559

30-49 1191891 528971 662920 371980 186833 185148 67561 35183 32379 281368 138375 142993 1888 946 941 469095 167635 301460

50+ 617854 256979 360875 285553 117689 167864 17109 7178 9931 49024 27285 21739 806 270 536 265363 104558 160805

 50-64 390031 171394 218638 177859 78058 99801 10519 4916 5603 37603 21949 15654 490 158 333 163561 66314 97248

 65+ 227823 85585 142238 107694 39631 68063 6590 2261 4329 11421 5336 6085 316 113 204 101801 38244 63558

a

 Census level divided by 0.80
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on

their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

32

Table A-3. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by DA Race, Sex, and Age: 2000 (Census Level)*

Age All Races Black Nonblack

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 8705419 4717733 3987686 611499 317121 294378 8093920 4400612 3693308

0-17 1988956 1029065 959891 164480 82111 82369 1824476 946954 877522

18-29 3483802 2026526 1457276 197987 101905 96082 3285815 1924621 1361194

30-49 2605123 1374099 1231024 224089 121384 102705 2381034 1252715 1128319

50+ 627538 288043 339495 24943 11721 13222 602595 276322 326273

 50-64 407613 194747 212866 15126 7452 7674 392487 187295 205192

 65+ 219925 93296 126629 9817 4269 5548 210108 89027 121081
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on

their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

33

 Table A-3a. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 15 percent undercounta, by DA Race, Sex and Age: 2000*

Age All Races Black Nonblack

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 10241669 5550274 4691395 719411 373084 346327 9522259 5177191 4345068

0-17 2339948 1210665 1129284 193506 96601 96905 2146442 1114064 1032379

18-29 4098591 2384148 1714442 232926 119888 113038 3865665 2264260 1601405

30-49 3064851 1616587 1448264 263634 142805 120829 2801216 1473782 1327434

50+ 738280 338874 399406 29345 13789 15555 708935 325085 383851

 50-64 479545 229114 250431 17795 8767 9028 461749 220347 241402

 65+ 258735 109760 148975 11549 5022 6527 247186 104738 142448

a

 Census level divided by 0.85

Table A-3b. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 20 percent undercounta, by DA Race, Sex and Age: 2000*

Age All Races Black Nonblack

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 10881774 5897166 4984608 764374 396401 367973 10117400 5500765 4616635

0-17 2486195 1286331 1199864 205600 102639 102961 2280595 1183693 1096903

18-29 4354753 2533158 1821595 247484 127381 120103 4107269 2405776 1701493

30-49 3256404 1717624 1538780 280111 151730 128381 2976293 1565894 1410399

50+ 784423 360054 424369 31179 14651 16528 753244 345403 407841

 50-64 509516 243434 266083 18908 9315 9593 490609 234119 256490

 65+ 274906 116620 158286 12271 5336 6935 262635 111284 151351

a

 Census level divided by 0.80
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

** Numbers shown with "-" reflect negative values. See Results section entitled "Country-Specific (Negative) Estimates" for more information.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on

their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

34

Table A-4. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by DA Race and Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age: 2000 (Census Level)* **

Age All Races Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic API Non-Hispanic AIAN Hispanic

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All ages 8705418 4717731 3987687 1604584 820254 784330 470640 240013 230627 1258659 686118 572541 17941 9365 8576 5353594 2961981 2391613

0-17 1988956 1029065 959891 373698 190680 183018 133081 65928 67153 292738 138919 153819 6767 3380 3387 1182672 630158 552514

18-29 3483801 2026525 1457276 425162 222307 202855 146075 70744 75331 505539 269205 236334 4955 2516 2439 2402070 1461753 940317

30-49 2605122 1374098 1231024 507594 281644 225950 177383 96223 81160 455405 259868 195537 5296 2941 2355 1459444 733422 726022

50+ 627539 288043 339496 298130 125623 172507 14101 7118 6983 4977 18126 -13149 923 528 395 309408 136648 172760

 50-64 407613 194747 212866 167588 74470 93118 8115 4259 3856 23647 18847 4800 675 463 212 207588 96708 110880

 65+ 219926 93296 126630 130542 51153 79389 5986 2859 3127 -18670 -721 -17949 248 65 183 101820 39940 61880
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

** Numbers shown with "-" reflect negative values. See Results section entitled "Country-Specific (Negative) Estimates" for more information.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on

their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

35

Table A-4a. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 15 percent undercounta

, by DA Race and Hispanic Origin,

Sex, and Age: 2000* **

Age All Races Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic API Non-Hispanic AIAN Hispanic

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All

ages

10241668 5550272 4691396 1887746 965005 922741 553694 282368 271326 1480775 807198 673578 21107 11018 10089 6298346 3484684 2813662

0-17 2339948 1210665 1129284 439645 224329 215315 156566 77562 79004 344398 163434 180964 7961 3976 3985 1391379 741362 650016

18-29 4098589 2384147 1714442 500191 261538 238653 171853 83228 88625 594752 316712 278040 5829 2960 2869 2825965 1719709 1106255

30-49 3064849 1616586 1448264 597169 331346 265824 208686 113204 95482 535771 305727 230044 6231 3460 2771 1716993 862849 854144

50+ 738281 338874 399407 350741 147792 202949 16589 8374 8215 5855 21325 -15469 1086 621 465 364009 160762 203247

 50-64 479545 229114 250431 197162 87612 109551 9547 5011 4536 27820 22173 5647 794 545 249 244221 113774 130447

 65+ 258736 109760 148976 153579 60180 93399 7042 3364 3679 -21965 -848 -21116 292 76 215 119788 46988 72800

a

 Census level divided by 0.85

Table A-4b. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born, adjusted for 20 percent undercounta, by DA Race and Hispanic Origin,

Sex, and Age: 2000* **

Age All Races Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic API Non-Hispanic AIAN Hispanic

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

All

ages

10881773 5897164 4984609 2005730 1025318 980413 588300 300016 288284 1573324 857648 715676 22426 11706 10720 6691993 3702476 2989516

0-17 2486195 1286331 1199864 467123 238350 228773 166351 82410 83941 365923 173649 192274 8459 4225 4234 1478340 787698 690643

18-29 4354751 2533156 1821595 531453 277884 253569 182594 88430 94164 631924 336506 295418 6194 3145 3049 3002588 1827191 1175396

30-49 3256403 1717623 1538780 634493 352055 282438 221729 120279 101450 569256 324835 244421 6620 3676 2944 1824305 916778 907528

50+ 784424 360054 424370 372663 157029 215634 17626 8898 8729 6221 22658 -16436 1154 660 494 386760 170810 215950

 50-64 509516 243434 266083 209485 93088 116398 10144 5324 4820 29559 23559 6000 844 579 265 259485 120885 138600

 65+ 274908 116620 158288 163178 63941 99236 7483 3574 3909 -23338 -901 -22436 310 81 229 127275 49925 77350

a

Census level divided by 0.80
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also

includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods

or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

36

Table A-5. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by Place of Birth and Sex, 1990*

Country of Birth

Total Male Female

Total 3,765,897 1,822,403 1,943,494

North and Central America 1,891,000 849,425 1,041,575

Mexico 1,008,372 396,602 611,770

Cuba 157,187 83,716 73,471

Dominican Republic 28,243 13,736 14,507

El Salvador 203,308 112,978 90,330

Guatemala 97,817 52,883 44,934

Canada 114,394 51,863 62,531

Haiti 11,797 1,860 9,937

Jamaica 17,838 9,253 8,585

Trinidad & Tobago 31,069 14,753 16,316

Other North & Central America 220,975 111,781 109,194

South America 278,093 144,669 133,424

Argentina 22,507 12,055 10,452

Colombia 78,592 39,701 38,891

Ecuador 41,210 22,210 19,000

Peru 43,976 22,295 21,681

Other South America 91,808 48,408 43,400

Europe 649,285 316,737 332,548

France 21,110 9,465 11,645

Germany 78,199 32,629 45,570

Greece 14,385 8,603 5,782

Ireland 20,024 9,944 10,080

Italy 56,368 30,177 26,191

Netherlands 13,516 7,010 6,506

Poland 65,838 33,547 32,291

Portugal 37,638 20,661 16,977

Spain 17,990 9,691 8,299

U.S.S.R. (incl. Est., Lat., Lith.) 111,674 54,320 57,354

United Kingdom 109,806 50,384 59,422

Yugoslavia 18,361 10,130 8,231

Other Europe 84,376 40,176 44,200

Asia 834,643 445,990 388,653

Middle East 122,886 73,932 48,954

Iran 47,507 27,298 20,209

Israel 24,479 14,227 10,252

Other Middle East (incl. Afghanistan) 50,900 32,407 18,493

South & East Asia 711,757 372,058 339,699

China (incl. Taiwan) 137,068 74,803 62,265

India 51,137 32,474 18,663

Japan 86,564 39,795 46,769

Korea 77,226 41,738 35,488

Philippines 114,350 57,837 56,513

Other South & East Asia 245,412 125,411 120,001

Africa 89,619 52,889 36,730

Oceania 23,257 12,693 10,564

Australia 8,515 4,714 3,801

Other Oceania 14,742 7,979 6,763
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

* Numbers shown here may differ from numbers produced in actual calculations due to rounding.

** Numbers shown with "-" reflect negative values. See Results section entitled "Country-Specific (Negative) Estimates" for more

information.

NOTE: This residual foreign-born population is not an estimate of the number of unauthorized migrants. This estimate also

includes people in "quasi-legal" status who are awaiting action on their legal migration requests. Any limitations in the methods

or in the measurement of other migration components are reflected in the residual number.

37

Table A-6. Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born by Place of Birth and Sex, 2000*

Country of Birth

 Total Male Female

Total 8,705,421 4,717,733 3,987,688

North and Central America 5,312,990 2,919,604 2,393,386

Mexico 3,871,912 2,137,177 1,734,735

Cuba 216,297 115,377 100,920

Dominican Republic 17,942 8,000 9,942

El Salvador 336,717 196,597 140,120

Guatemala 238,977 146,483 92,494

Canada 156,231 74,772 81,459

Haiti 48,003 22,086 25,917

Jamaica 37,666 16,754 20,912

Trinidad & Tobago 44,178 20,960 23,218

Other North & Central America 345,067 181,398 163,669

South America 624,419 333,092 291,327

Argentina 35,958 19,779 16,179

Colombia 174,786 88,049 86,737

Ecuador 105,197 62,369 42,828

Peru 68,174 37,069 31,105

Other South America 240,304 125,826 114,478

Europe 1,113,683 555,063 558,620

France 36,477 18,234 18,243

Germany 113,327 50,771 62,556

Greece 15,507 9,424 6,083

Ireland** -2,233 -1,314 -919

Italy 62,456 33,818 28,638

Netherlands 17,885 9,885 8,000

Poland 92,684 47,629 45,055

Portugal 33,874 18,078 15,796

Spain 23,816 12,775 11,041

U.S.S.R. (incl. Est., Lat., Lith.) 344,877 167,149 177,728

United Kingdom 123,246 60,145 63,101

Yugoslavia 110,280 58,347 51,933

Other Europe 141,487 70,122 71,365

Asia 1,363,419 753,272 610,147

Middle East 114,818 70,188 44,630

Iran 30,823 20,504 10,319

Israel 24,372 12,254 12,118

Other Middle East (incl. Afghanistan) 59,623 37,430 22,193

South & East Asia 1,248,601 683,084 565,517

China (incl. Taiwan) 226,886 114,592 112,294

India 200,306 135,059 65,247

Japan 118,357 56,713 61,644

Korea 182,621 93,295 89,326

Philippines 155,239 88,780 66,459

Other South & East Asia 365,192 194,645 170,547

Africa 243,342 130,340 113,002

Oceania 47,568 26,362 21,206

Australia 16,777 9,767 7,010

Other Oceania 30,791 16,595 14,196
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

38

Appendix B. Reference Materials: Bibliography
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

39

Appendix B. Reference Materials: Bibliography

Demographic Analysis–Population Estimates (DAPE) Research Project Reports

Related to Evaluating Components of International Migration (in order of Working

Paper Series Number)

Deardorff, K. and L. Blumerman. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration:

Estimates of the Foreign-Born Population by Migrant Status: 2000. (Population

Division Working Paper #58) (release pending) U.S. Census Bureau.

Perry, M., B. Van der Vate, L. Auman, and K. Morris. 2001. Evaluating Components of

International Migration: Legal Migrants. (Population Division Working Paper #59)

(release pending) U.S. Census Bureau.

Cassidy, R. and L. Pearson. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration:

Temporary (Legal) Migrants. (Population Division Working Paper #60) (release

pending) U.S. Census Bureau.

Costanzo, J., C. Davis, C. Irazi, D. Goodkind, R. Ramirez. 2001. Evaluating Components of

International Migration: The Residual Foreign Born. (Population Division Working

Paper #61) (release pending) U.S. Census Bureau.

Mulder, T., B. Guzmán, and A. Brittingham. 2001. Evaluating Components of International

Migration: Foreign-Born Emigrants. (Population Division Working Paper #62) (release

pending) U.S. Census Bureau.

Gibbs, J., G. Harper, M. Rubin, H. Shin. 2001. Evaluating Components of International

Migration: Native Emigrants. (Population Division Working Paper #63) (release

pending) U.S. Census Bureau.

Christenson, M. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Migration Between

Puerto Rico and the United States. (Population Division Working Paper #64) (release

pending) U.S. Census Bureau.

Cresce, A., R. Ramirez, and G. Spencer. 2001. Evaluating Components of International

Migration: Quality of Foreign-Born and Hispanic Population Data. (Population Division

Working Paper #65) (release pending) U.S. Census Bureau.

Malone, N. 2001. Evaluating Components of International Migration: Consistency of 2000

Nativity Data. (Population Division Working Paper #66) (release pending) U.S.

Census Bureau.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

40

Census Bureau Technical Documentation Related to Estimating the Residual

Foreign-Born Population

Ahmed, B. unpublished. “Estimates of undocumented immigration counted in the 1990

Census.” (Draft: March) (U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division).

Costanzo, J. unpublished. “Workshop on estimating unauthorized immigration: Summary”

(11 December 1998, Census Bureau, Suitland, Maryland).

Fernandez, E.W. and J.G. Robinson. 1994. “Illustrative ranges of the distribution of

undocumented immigrants by state.” (Technical Working Paper Series no.8, U.S.

Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections) (October)

p.6 (+Appendix).

Goodkind, D. 1999. Measuring International Illicit Migration: An Exploratory Report.

(November) U.S. Census Bureau.

Heer, D.M., and J.S. Passel. 1987. “Comparison of two methods for estimating the number

of undocumented Mexican adults in Los Angeles County.” International Migration

Review 21(4): 1446-1473.

Luther, N.Y. and J.S. Passel. 1991. Estimation Of Undocumented Immigration To The United

States. (Final Report – Joint Statistical Agreement Between the Bureau of the Census

and the East-West Population Institute) (Report No. JSA88-3).

Passel, J.S. and K.A. Woodrow. 1987. “Change in the undocumented alien population in the

United States, 1979-1983.” International Migration Review 21(4): 1304-1334.

---. 1984. “Geographic distribution of undocumented immigrants: Estimates of

undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 Census by state.” International Migration

Review 18(3): 642-671.

Robinson, J.G. unpublished. “Estimates of undocumented residents.” (Internal memo, draft

date 26 February 1998) (U.S. Census Bureau).

---. unpublished. “Review of estimates on the size and geographic distribution of the

undocumented immigrants.” (Written statement to the US Senate–Committee on

Appropriations, June 22, 1994).

---. 1980. “Estimating the approximate size of the illegal alien population in the United

States by the comparative trend analysis of age-specific death rates.” Demography

17(2): 159-76.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

41

Rodriguez, N. and J.S. Hagan. 1991. “Investigating census coverage and content among the

undocumented: Ethnographic study of Latin tenants in Houston, Texas.”

(Ethnographic Evaluation of the Decennial Census Report no.3).

Warren, R. and J.S. Passel. 1987. “A count of the uncountable: Estimates of undocumented

aliens counted in the 1980 United States Census.” Demography (August) 24(3): 375-

393.

Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. 1991. “Demographic analysis evaluation project D2: Preliminary

estimates of undocumented residents in 1990.” (1990 Decennial Census, Preliminary

Research & Evaluation Memorandum no. 75) (22 October 1991).

---. unpublished. “Estimates for the Undocumented Residents in 1990.” Internal Memo,

U.S. Census Bureau, December 20, Demographic Analysis Evaluation Project D2.

Non-Census Bureau Technical Documentation on Measuring the Residual ForeignBorn and Unauthorized Migration

1997. Binational Study on Migration Between Mexico and the United States (U.S.

Commission on Immigration Reform, Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores -

Coordinators) (F.D. Bean and K. Woodrow-Lafield, authors of Quantification of

Migration section) Mexico.

Bean, F. et al. 2001. “Circular, invisible, and ambiguous migrants: Components of difference

in estimates of the number of unauthorized Mexican migrants in the United States.”

Demography 38(3): 411-22.

Briggs, V. 1984. “Methods of analysis of illegal immigration into the United States.”

International Migration Review 18(3): 623-41.

Clark, R.L. et al. 1994. Fiscal Impacts of Undocumented Aliens: Selected Estimates for Seven

States. Washington, DC: Urban Institute.

Delaunay, D. and G. Tapinos. 1998a. La Mesure de la Migration Clandestine en Europe

(Volume 2: Rapport des Experts) (Measuring Illegal Migration in Europe) (Eurostat

Working Papers, Population et conditions sociales) (3/1998/E/no.7) (English).

---. 1998b. La Mesure de la Migration Clandestine en Europe (Volume 1: Rapport de

Synthèse) (Measuring Illegal Migration in Europe) (Eurostat Working Papers, Population

et conditions sociales) (3/1998/E/no.7) (French).
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

42

Espenshade, T.J. 1995a. “Using INS border apprehension data to measure the flow of

undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico frontier.” International Migration

Review 29(2): 545-565.

---. 1995b. “Unauthorized immigration to the United States.” Annual Review of Sociology

21: 195-216.

---. 1994. “Does the threat of border apprehension deter undocumented US immigration?”

Population Development Review 20(4): 871-92.

Haines, D.W. and K.E. Rosenblum (eds.). 1999. Illegal Immigration in America: A Reference

Handbook. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press. p. 573.

Johnson, H.P. 1996. Undocumented Immigration to California: 1980-1993. (September

1996) (http://www.ppic.org/publications/PPIC100/index.html).

La Fondazione Cariplo per le Iniziative e lo Studio sulla Multietnicità (I.S.MU.). 1988. The

Fourth Report on Migrations 1998. (Chapter on Illegal Migration by G-C. Blangiardo,

Dr. Farina) +methodological appendix (Italian).

Lederer, H.W. 1998. “Illegal migration: Why does it exist and what do we know about

numbers and trends?” (Managing Migration in the 21st Century–On the politics and

economics of illegal migration, 21-23 June 1998, Hamburg, Germany).

Lowell, B. L. 1992. “Circular mobility, migrant communities, and policy restrictions:

Unauthorized flows from Mexico.” (U.S. Dept. of Labor, DOL-ILAB Working Paper

#13).

Lowell, B.L. and Z. Jing. 1994. “Unauthorized workers and immigration reform: What can

we ascertain from employers?” International Migration Review (Fall) 28(3): 427-448.

Passel, J.S. unpublished. “Some random thoughts on undocumented immigration in Census

2000, Demographic Analysis, A.C.E, and the CPS.” Mimeo (2001).

---. unpublished. “Comparison of Demographic Analysis, A.C.E., and Census 2000 Results by

Race.” (27 February 2001) (Memo to Frances Bourne).

---. 1999. "Undocumented immigration to the United States: Numbers, trends, and

characteristics.” (in Illegal Immigration in America: A Reference Handbook. Westport,

CT: Greenwood Press. p. 27-111.

Passel, J.S. and R.L. Clark, 1998. Immigrants in New York: Their Legal Status, Incomes, and

Taxes. Washington, DC: Urban Institute.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

43

Singer, A. and D.S. Massey. 1998. "The social process of undocumented border crossing

among Mexican migrants to the United States." International Migration Review

32: 561-92.

Smith, S., R.G. Kramer, and A. Singer. 1996. Effects Of The Immigration Reform And Control

Act: Characteristics And Labor Market Behavior Of The Legalized Population Five Years

Following Legalization (U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of International Labor

Affairs, Immigration Policy and Research) (May) p129 (+Appendix).

U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO). 1999a. Illegal Aliens: Significant Obstacles To

Reducing Unauthorized Alien Employment Exist. (GAO/GGD-99-33) (April) p. 48.

---. 1999b. Survey Methodology: An Innovative Technique for Estimating Sensitive Survey

Items. (GAO/GGD-00-30) (November) p. 88.

---. 1995a. Illegal Aliens: National Net Cost Estimates Vary Widely. (GAO/HEHS-95-133)

(July) p. 64.

---. 1995b. Illegal Immigration: INS Overstay Estimation Methods Need Improvement.

(GAO/PEMD-95-20) (September) p. 68.

---. 1993. Illegal Aliens: Despite Data Limitations, Current Methods Provide Better Population

Estimates. (GAO/PEMD-93-25) (August) p. 92.

---. 1982. Problems and Options in Estimating the Size of the Illegal Alien Population.

(GAO/IPE-82-9) (September 24) p. 37.

Warren, R. 2000. Annual Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the

United States and Components of Change: 1987 to 1997. (Draft Report, September)

(Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS)) http://lamarsmith.house.gov/.

---. 1998. "Unauthorized Immigrants Residing in the United States: Estimated Population,

Components of Change, and Trends, by Sex and Broad Area of Origin, 1987 to

1997." (December 11) (draft mimeo as basis for Seminar at U.S. Census Bureau).

---. 1997. Estimates of the Undocumented Immigrant Population Residing in the United

States: October 1996. U.S. Department of Justice. Office of Policy and Planning.

Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS).

---. 1994. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States,

by Country of Origin and State of Residence: October 1992. (Final 20 April 1994)

Immigration and Naturalization Service.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

44

Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. 1998. “Undocumented residents in the United States in 1990: Issues

of uncertainty in quantification.” International Migration Review (Spring) 32(1): 145-

73.
Estimating the Residual Foreign Born, 1990 and 2000

45

Appendix C. Comparing Estimates of the Residual Foreign Born with Estimates

Others Have Made of the Unauthorized Migrant Population

Source Estimate

(millions)

Assumed

Undercount

(percent)

Data Year

DAPE (2001 - U.S. Census Bureau) 8.7 (7.0)*

(counted)

--- 2000

*8.7 million residual foreign born

(7.0 million unauthorized migrants)

10.2

(incl. underct)

15 % 2000

3.8

(counted)

--- 1990

4.7

(incl. underct)

20 % 1990

Warren (2001 unpublished) 6.7

(counted)

--- 2000

7.6

(incl. underct)

10 % (90-00 entrants)

&

5 % (pre-90 entrants)

2000

Bean (2001) 7.1

(incl. underct)

15 to 25%

(Mexican Illegal Pop);

assumed higher for

males than females

2000 (Total)

3.9

(incl. underct)

2000 (Mex only)

2.5

(incl. underct)

1996 (Mex only)

Woodrow (1991)

– U.S. Census Bureau DA, 1990

2.1

(counted)

--- 1990

3.3

(incl. underct)

25% 1990

2.8 to 5.0

(incl. underct)

10 % to 50 % 1990

Passel (1988)

– U.S. Census Bureau DA, 1980

2.1

(counted)

--- 1980

2.5 to 3.5

(incl. underct)

19 to 38%

(derived)

1980