### J-1 APPENDIX J: SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX This Supplemental Appendix contains information and data on which the Final Rule for residential central air conditioners and heat pumps is based. Most data contained in this appendix provide results based on the use of Reverse Engineering manufacturing cost data. The tables and figures presented in this appendix usually have a corresponding table or figure from one of the chapters in the Technical Support Document (TSD). Tables and figures in this appendix with corresponding information in the TSD use the same table or figure numbers as the TSD but with an “S” added after the number to designate it as supplemental information. For example, Table 5.28 from Chapter 5 of the TSD that provides average repair costs based on ARI mean manufacturing cost data is shown in this appendix as Table 5.28S with the results based on Reverse Engineering manufacturing cost data. There are some tables and figures in this appendix that do not have a corresponding table or figure from the TSD. In these cases, the supplemental tables and figures are identified with the table or figure number from the TSD that the new data most closely pertains to and an “A” is added after the number to designate it as additional information.

J.1 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES AND FIGURES TO CHAPTER 5 Table 5.3S Reverse Engineering Standard-Level Manufacturer Cost Multipliers Split A/C Split HP Package A/C Package HP SEER Most Likely Value Most Likely Value Most Likely Value Most Likely Value

10 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 11 1.12 1.05 1.09 1.08 12 1.28 1.13 1.16 1.13 13 1.44 1.30 1.43 1.38 18 a 1.99 1.94 1.87 1.86

a Cost multipliers for 18 SEER are based on data for 15 SEER. 

### Table 5.8S Weighted-Average Total Installed Costs for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Split A/C Package A/C Split HP Package HP SEER 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ 1998$

10 $2,236 $2,607 $3,668 $3,599 11 $2,327 $2,696 $3,723 $3,691 12 $2,449 $2,765 $3,812 $3,748 13 $2,571 $3,032 $4,000 $4,034 18 $2,990 $3,466 $4,707 $4,584

### J-2 Table 5.28S Central Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Average Repair Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs SEER Split System A/C Single Package A/C Split System HP Single Package HP Btu/W ^ hr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ 10 $26 $34 $38 $39 11 $26 $34 $38 $39 12 $27 $34 $38 $40 13 $27 $35 $39 $40 18 $46 $57 $66 $66

### J-3 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500

10 11 12 13 18 SEERInstalled Consumer Cost Equipment Price Installation Price

Figure 5.29S Split A/C: Mean Installed Consumer Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000

10 11 12 13 18 SEERInstalled Consumer Cost Equipment Price Installation Price

Figure 5.32S Split HP: Mean Installed Consumer Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700

10 11 12 13 18 SEERAnnual Operating Cost Electricity Compr. Repair Maint.

Figure 5.33S Split HP: Mean Annual Operating Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

10 11 12 13 18 SEERLife-Cycle Cost Installed Consumer Cost Lifetime Operating Cost

Figure 5.31S Split A/C: Mean Life-Cycle Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350

10 11 12 13 18 SEERAnnual Operating Cost Electricity Compr. Repair Maint.

Figure 5.30S Split A/C: Mean Annual Operating Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000

10 11 12 13 18 SEERLife-Cycle Cost Installed Consumer Cost Lifetime Operating Cost

Figure 5.34S Split HP: Mean Life-Cycle Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

### J-4 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000

10 11 12 13 18 SEERInstalled Consumer Cost Equipment Price Installation Price

Figure 5.35S Pack A/C: Mean Installed Consumer Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350

10 11 12 13 18 SEERAnnual Operating Cost Electricity Compr. Repair Maint.

Figure 5.36S Pack A/C: Mean Annual Operating Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

10 11 12 13 18 SEERLife-Cycle Cost Installed Consumer Cost Lifetime Operating Cost

Figure 5.37S Pack A/C: Mean Life-Cycle Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000

10 11 12 13 18 SEERInstalled Consumer Cost Equipment Price Installation Price

Figure 5.38S Pack HP: Mean Installed Consumer Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000

10 11 12 13 18 SEERLife-Cycle Cost Installed Consumer Cost Lifetime Operating Cost

Figure 5.40S Pack HP: Mean Life-Cycle Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700

10 11 12 13 18 SEERAnnual Operating Cost Electricity Compr. Repair Maint.

Figure 5.39S Pack HP: Mean Annual Operating Costs based on Rev Eng Manufacturing CostsJ-5Table 5.35S Summary of LCC Results for Split System Air Conditioners based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing CostsEfficiency Level(SEER)Change in LCC from BaselineShown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results (values in1998$)Percent ofHouseholdswith reducedLCC0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean11 $-2,060 $-301 $-160 $-90 $-44 $-14 $10 $31 $51 $71 $168 $-75 56%12 $-4,382 $-525 $-276 $-147 $-64 $-4 $43 $83 $121 $160 $344 $-113 51%13 $-4,372 $-676 $-345 $-157 $-46 $35 $99 $155 $206 $262 $530 $-113 45%18 $-9,321 $-922 $-282 $47 $250 $390 $508 $611 $719 $866 $1,840 $137 28%Table 5.36S Summary of LCC Results for Split System Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing CostsEfficiency Level(SEER)Change in LCC from BaselineShown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results (values in1998$)Percent ofHouseholdswith reducedLCC0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean11 / 7.1 $-1,676 $-488 $-332 $-250 $-192 $-147 $-109 $-77 $-45 $-10 $100 $-209 92%12 / 7.4 $-3,205 $-881 $-597 $-440 $-334 $-249 $-179 $-116 $-59 $10 $234 $-365 89%13 / 7.7 $-4,214 $-1,106 $-700 $-484 $-330 $-216 $-115 $-28 $58 $145 $484 $-372 73%18 / 8.8 $-12,215 $-1,333 $-560 $-148 $131 $347 $514 $659 $817 $1,012 $1,947 $41 35%J-6Table 5.37S Summary of LCC Results for Single Package Air Conditioners based on Reverse EngineeringManufacturing CostsEfficiency Level(SEER)Change in LCC from BaselineShown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results (values in1998$)Percent ofHouseholdswith reducedLCC0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean11 $-2,179 $-310 $-172 $-97 $-49 $-16 $10 $30 $50 $70 $151 $-78 56%12 $-4,756 $-577 $-329 $-197 $-111 $-49 $-3 $37 $73 $109 $226 $-163 61%13 $-6,374 $-650 $-269 $-79 $48 $129 $192 $249 $303 $364 $611 $-29 36%18 $-8,768 $-779 $-138 $187 $393 $538 $658 $759 $867 $1,011 $1,677 $276 24%Table 5.38S Summary of LCC Results for Single Package Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing CostsEfficiency Level(SEER)Change in LCC from BaselineShown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results (values in1998$)Percent ofHouseholdswith reducedLCC0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean11 / 7.1 $-1,190 $-520 $-343 $-253 $-190 $-143 $-102 $-67 $-30 $13 $185 $-207 87%12 / 7.4 $-3,373 $-977 $-681 $-514 $-399 $-310 $-233 $-165 $-95 $-16 $227 $-421 92%13 / 7.7 $-4,405 $-1,138 $-712 $-487 $-318 $-194 $-89 $9 $107 $219 $613 $-353 69%18 / 8.8 $-8,734 $-1,689 $-878 $-416 $-92 $144 $340 $525 $715 $953 $2,086 $-166 44%

### J-7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 

### SEERPayback Period (years)

Median Mean



### Figure 5.72S Split A/C: Median and Mean Payback Periods based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Table 5.53S Summary of Payback Period Results for Split Air Conditioners based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs
Efficiency Level (SEER) Payback Period in Years Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean 11 1 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 16 24 339 12 12 1 3 5 6 8 10 12 15 20 31 571 15 13 1 4 6 7 9 11 14 17 23 34 670 17 18 1 5 8 11 15 20 27 41 89 1000 >1000 174

### J-8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 

### SEERPayback Period (years)

Median Mean



### Figure 5.73S Split HP: Median and Mean Payback Periods based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Table 5.54S Summary of Payback Period Results for Split Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs
Efficiency Level (SEER / HSPF) Payback Period in Years Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean 11 / 7.1 0 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 1000 4 12 / 7.4 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 7 9 >1000 6 13 / 7.7 1 3 4 5 5 6 7 9 11 15 1000 9 18 / 8.8 2 5 7 9 11 14 17 22 32 62 >1000 78

### J-9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 

### SEERPayback Period (years)

Median Mean



### Figure 5.74S Package A/C: Median and Mean Payback Periods based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Table 5.55S Summary of Payback Period Results for Single Package Air Conditioners based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Efficiency

Level (SEER) Payback Period in Years Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean 11 1 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 16 24 299 11 12 1 3 4 5 6 8 9 12 16 24 591 11 13 1 5 7 9 12 15 18 22 30 46 > 1000 22 18 1 6 9 13 18 25 35 57 163 1000 >1000 240

### J-10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 

### SEERPayback Period (years)

Median Mean



### Figure 5.75S Package HP: Median and Mean Payback Periods based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Table 5.56S Summary of Payback Period Results for Single Package Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs
Efficiency Level (SEER / HSPF) Payback Period in Years Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean 11 / 7.1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 11 > 1000 7 12 / 7.4 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 10 1000 6 13 / 7.7 1 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 > 1000 13 18 / 8.8 2 5 7 9 11 13 16 21 28 56 > 1000 62

### J-11 Table 5.58S Summary of Rebuttable PBPs and Inputs for Split System Air Conditioners based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Weighted-Avg of Units Sold below Effc’y Installed Annual Annual Annual Annual Assumed Installed Annual Rebutt. Effc’y Consumer Energy Repair Maint. Operating 2006 Consumer Operating Payback Level Cost Use Cost Cost Expense Effc’y Cost Expense Period SEER 1998$ kWh/yr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ Distr. 1998$ 1998$ years

10 $2,236 3,600 $26 $36 $357 78.7% - - - 11 $2,327 3,273 $26 $36 $331 5.4% $2,236 $357 3.5 12 $2,449 3,000 $27 $36 $310 12.0% $2,241 $355 4.5 13 $2,571 2,769 $27 $36 $292 3.6% $2,267 $350 5.2 18 $2,990 2,000 $46 $36 $250 0.2% $2,279 $347 7.3 

### Table 5.59S Summary of Rebuttable PBPs and Inputs for Split System Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Weighted-Avg of Units Sold below Effc’y Installed Annual Annual Annual Annual Assumed Installed Annual Rebutt. Effc’y Consumer Energy Repair Maint. Operating 2006 Consumer Operating Payback Level Cost Use Cost Cost Expense Effc’y Cost Expense Period SEER/HSPF 1998$ kWh/yr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ Distr. 1998$ 1998$ years 10 /6.8 $3,668 11,844 $38 $36 $894 59.3% - - - 11 / 7.1 $3,723 11,168 $38 $36 $850 15.0% $3,668 $894 1.3 12 / 7.4 $3,812 10,575 $38 $36 $812 19.7% $3,679 $885 1.8 13 / 7.7 $4,000 10,049 $39 $36 $778 4.5% $3,707 $870 3.2 18 / 8.8 $4,707 8,370 $66 $36 $697 0.5% $3,734 $864 5.8 

### Table 5.60S Summary of Rebuttable PBPs and Inputs for Single Package Air Conditioners based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Weighted-Avg of Units Sold below Effc’y Installed Annual Annual Annual Annual Assumed Installed Annual Rebutt. Effc’y Consumer Energy Repair Maint. Operating 2006 Consumer Operating Payback Level Cost Use Cost Cost Expense Effc’y Cost Expense Period SEER 1998$ kWh/yr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ Distr. 1998$ 1998$ years

10 $2,607 3,600 $34 $36 $365 82.3% - - - 11 $2,696 3,273 $34 $36 $339 9.7% $2,607 $365 3.5 12 $2,765 3,000 $34 $36 $318 6.8% $2,616 $362 3.3 13 $3,032 2,769 $35 $36 $300 1.2% $2,627 $359 6.8 18 $3,466 2,000 $57 $36 $261 0.0% $2,632 $358 8.6

### J-12 Table 5.61S Summary of Rebuttable PBPs and Inputs for Single Package Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Weighted-Avg of Units Sold below Effc’y Installed Annual Annual Annual Annual Assumed Installed Annual Rebutt. Effc’y Consumer Energy Repair Maint. Operating 2006 Consumer Operating Payback Level Cost Use Cost Cost Expense Effc’y Cost Expense Period SEER/HSPF 1998$ kWh/yr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ Distr. 1998$ 1998$ years

10 / 6.8 $3,599 11,844 $39 $36 $895 64.2% - - - 11 / 7.1 $3,691 11,168 $39 $36 $852 13.6% $3,599 $895 2.1 12 / 7.4 $3,748 10,575 $40 $36 $814 22.2% $3,615 $888 1.8 13 / 7.7 $4,034 10,049 $40 $36 $780 0.0% $3,645 $871 4.3 18 / 8.8 $4,584 8,370 $66 $36 $696 0.0% $3,645 $871 5.4

### J-13 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

12345 Trial Standard LevelNational Energy Savings (Quads)

NAECA Roll-up Shift



### Figure 7.2S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Reference Case (2006- 2030) J.2 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES AND FIGURES TO CHAPTER 7 Table 7.11S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Reference Case (2006 - 2030) Efficiency Scenario NAECA Roll-up Shift Trial Standard Level Quads Quads Quads 1 1.7 1.5 1.9 2 3.0 2.9 3.5 3 3.5 3.4 3.9 4 4.3 4.2 4.7 5 8.6 8.8 8.6

### J-14 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

12345 Trial Standard LevelNational Energy Savings (Quads)

NAECA Roll-up Shift



### Figure 7.3S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006- 2030) Table 7.12S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006 - 2030) Efficiency Scenario NAECA Roll-up Shift Trial Standard Level Quads Quads Quads 1 1.7 1.5 1.9 2 2.9 2.8 3.4 3 3.4 3.3 3.8 4 4.3 4.1 4.7 5 8.4 8.4 8.4

### J-15 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

12345 Trial Standard LevelNational Energy Savings (Quads)



### Figure 7.4S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006- 2030) Table 7.13S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006 - 2030) Efficiency Scenario NAECA Roll-up Shift Trial Standard Level Quads Quads Quads 1 1.8 1.6 2.0 2 3.2 3.0 3.6 3 3.7 3.5 4.1 4 4.6 4.4 5.0 5 9.0 9.0 9.0

### J-16 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5 Trial Standard LevelTotal National Equipment and Operating Costs(billion 98$) NAECA Roll-up Shift



### Figure 7.10S Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Reference Case (2006 - 2030) Table 7.14S Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Reference Case (2006 - 2030) Base Case Efficiency Scenario NAECA Roll-up Shift Total Total NPV Total NPV Total NPV TSL billion 98$ billion 98$ billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total billion 98$ billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total billion 98$ billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total 1 $379 $378 $2 0.4% $377 $2 0.5% $378 $1 0.4% 2 $379 $377 $2 0.5% $377 $3 0.7% $380 ($1) -0.2% 3 $379 $378 $1 0.4% $377 $2 0.6% $381 ($2) -0.5% 4 $379 $379 $0 0.0% $378 $1 0.3% $383 ($4) -0.9% 5 $379 $390 ($10) -2.7% $390 ($10) -2.7% $390 ($10) -2.7%

### J-17 -$12 -$10 -$8 -$6 -$4 -$2 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10

12345

Trial Standard LevelNational NPV (billion 98$)

NAECA Roll-up Shift 2%

-2%



### Figure 7.11S Cumulative NPVs relative to ±2% of Total National Base Case Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Reference Case (2006 - 2030)

### J-18 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5 Trial Standard LevelTotal National Equipment and Operating Costs(billion 98$) NAECA Roll-up Shift



### Figure 7.12S Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006 - 2030) Table 7.15S Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006 -2030) Base Case Efficiency Scenario NAECA Roll-up Shift Total Total NPV Total NPV Total NPV TSL billion 98$ billion 98$ billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total billion 98$ billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total billion 98$ billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total 1 $367 $366 $1 0.4% $365 $2 0.5% $366 $1 0.3% 2 $367 $366 $1 0.4% $365 $2 0.6% $368 ($1) -0.3% 3 $367 $366 $1 0.3% $365 $2 0.5% $369 ($2) -0.5% 4 $367 $367 $0 -0.1% $366 $1 0.2% $371 ($4) -1.0% 5 $367 $378 ($11) -2.9% $378 ($11) -2.9% $378 ($11) -2.9%

### J-19 -$12 -$10 -$8 -$6 -$4 -$2 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10

12345

Trial Standard LevelNational NPV (billion 98$)

NAECA Roll-up Shift 2%

-2%



### Figure 7.13S Cumulative National NPVs relative to ±2% of Total National Base Case Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006 - 2030)

### J-20 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5 Trial Standard LevelTotal National Equipment and Operating Costs(billion 98$) NAECA Roll-up Shift



### Figure 7.14S Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006 - 2030) Table 7.16S Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006 -2030) Base Case Efficiency Scenario NAECA Roll-up Shift Total Total NPV Total NPV Total NPV TSL billion 98$ billion 98$ billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total billion 98$ billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total billion 98$ billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total 1 $402 $400 $2 0.5% $400 $2 0.6% $400 $2 0.4% 2 $402 $400 $2 0.6% $399 $3 0.8% $402 $0 -0.1% 3 $402 $400 $2 0.5% $399 $3 0.7% $403 ($1) -0.3% 4 $402 $401 $1 0.1% $400 $2 0.4% $405 ($3) -0.8% 5 $402 $412 ($10) -2.4% $412 ($10) -2.4% $412 ($10) -2.4%

### J-21 -$12 -$10 -$8 -$6 -$4 -$2 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10

12345

Trial Standard LevelNational NPV (billion 98$)

NAECA Roll-up Shift 2%

-2%



### Figure 7.15S Cumulative National NPVs relative to ±2% of Total National Base Case Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006 - 2030)

### J-22 $708 $702 $698 $698 $699 $716

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5 Trial Standard LevelTotal National Equipment and Operating Costs(billion 98$)



### Figure 7.26S Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario, and 3% Discount Rate Scenario (2006 - 2030) Table 7.19S Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario (2006 - 2030): 3% Discount Rate Scenario

TSL Base Case Total billion 98$ TSL Total billion 98$ TSL NPV billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total 1 $708 $702 $6 0.9% 2 $708 $698 $10 1.4% 3 $708 $698 $10 1.4% 4 $708 $699 $9 1.2% 5 $708 $716 ($8) -1.2%

### J-23 $6 $10 $10 $9

-$8

-$20 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20

12345

Trial Standard LevelNational NPV (billion 98$) 2%

-2%



### Figure 7.27S Cumulative National NPVs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario, and 3% Discount Rate Scenario (2006 - 2030)

### J-24 $708 $701 $697 $697 $697 $716

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5 Trial Standard LevelTotal National Equipment and Operating Costs(billion 98$)



### Table 7.26A Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario, and 3% Discount Rate Scenario (2006 - 2030) Table 7.19A Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario (2006 - 2030): 3% Discount Rate Scenario

TSL Base Case Total billion 98$ TSL Total billion 98$ TSL NPV billion 98$ as % of Base Case Total 1 $708 $701 $7 0.9% 2 $708 $697 $11 1.6% 3 $708 $697 $11 1.6% 4 $708 $697 $11 1.5% 5 $708 $716 ($8) -1.2%

### J-25 $7 $11 $11 $11

-$8

-$20 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20

12345

Trial Standard LevelNational NPV (billion 98$) 2%

-2%



### Table 7.27A Cumulative National NPVs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario, and 3% Discount Rate Scenario (2006 - 2030)

### J-26 J.3 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES TO CHAPTER 8 Table 8.14S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, NAECA Efficiency Mix
Standard

Level Industry Net Present Value

($ million) Change in INPV from Base Case $ million percent Base $ 1,539 -- --

1 $ 1,509 $ (30) -2% 2 $ 1,380 $ (159) -10% 3 $ 1,368 $ (171) -11% 4 $ 1,370 $ (169) -11%



### Table 8.15S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Roll-up Efficiency Mix
Standard

Level Industry Net Present Value

($ million) Change in INPV from Base Case $ million percent Base $ 1,539 -- --

1 $ 1,379 $ (160) -10% 2 $ 1,226 $ (313) -20% 3 $ 1,220 $ (319) -21% 4 $ 1,236 $ (303) -20%

### J-27 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 ($40)

$0 $40 $80 $120 Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4 TSL3 TSL2 Base TSL1



### Figure 8.3S Industry Net Cash Flow – Reverse Engineering, Shift Efficiency Scenario Table 8.16S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Shift Efficiency Mix
Standard

Level Industry Net Present Value

($ million) Change in INPV from Base Case $ million percent Base $ 1,539 -- --

1 $ 1,658 $ 119 8% 2 $ 1,772 $ 233 15% 3 $ 1,776 $ 237 15% 4 $ 1,824 $ 285 19%

### J-28 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 ($40)

$0 $40 $80 $120 Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4 TSL3 Base

TSL2 TSL1



### Figure 8.4S I ndustry Net Cash Flow – Reverse Engineering, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201 ($40)

$0 $40 $80 $120 Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4

TSL3

TSL2 TSL1 Base



### Figure 8.5S Industry Net Cash Flow – Reverse Engin eering, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario

### J-29 Table 8.29S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Lower Operating Cost Subgroup, Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, NAECA Efficiency Scenario
Standard

Level Industry Net Present Value

($ million) Change in INPV from Base Case $ million percent Base $ 368 -- --

1 $ 385 $ 17 5% 2 $ 393 $ 25 7% 3 $ 397 $ 29 8% 4 $ 412 $ 44 12%



### Table 8.30S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Lower Operating Cost Subgroup, Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Roll-up Efficiency Mix
Standard

Level Industry Net Present Value

($ million) Change in INPV from Base Case $ million percent Base $ 368 -- --

1 $ 378 $ 10 3% 2 $ 385 $ 17 5% 3 $ 390 $ 22 6% 4 $ 405 $ 37 10%

### J-30 Table 8.31S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Lower Operating Cost Subgroup, Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Shift Efficiency Mix

Standard

Level Industry Net Present Value

($ million) Change in INPV from Base Case $ million percent Base $ 368 -- --

1 $ 391 $ 23 6% 2 $ 414 $ 46 13% 3 $ 419 $ 51 14% 4 $ 437 $ 69 19%



### Table 8.32S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Higher Operating Cost Subgroup, Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, NAECA Efficiency Scenario
Standard

Level Industry Net Present Value

($ million) Change in INPV from Base Case $ million percent Base $ 1,171 -- --

1 $ 1,124 $ (47) -4% 2 $ 987 $ (184) -16% 3 $ 971 $ (200) -17% 4 $ 958 $ (213) -18%

### J-31 Table 8.33S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Higher Operating Cost Subgroup, Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Roll-up Efficiency Mix
Standard

Level Industry Net Present Value

($ million) Change in INPV from Base Case $ million percent Base $ 1,171 -- --

1 $ 1,000 $ (171) -15% 2 $ 841 $ (330) -28% 3 $ 830 $ (341) -29% 4 $ 831 $ (340) -29%



### Table 8.34S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Higher Operating Cost Subgroup, Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Shift Efficiency Mix

Standard

Level Industry Net Present Value

($ million) Change in INPV from Base Case $ million percent Base $ 1,171 -- --

1 $ 1,267 $ 96 8% 2 $ 1,358 $ 187 16% 3 $ 1,357 $ 186 16% 4 $ 1,387 $ 216 18%

### J-32 Table 8.35S Changes in ROIC in 2011 — Lower Operating Cost Subgroup

Standard

Level Reverse Engineering NAECA Reverse Engineering Roll-up Reverse Engineering Shift Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Change in ROIC from Base Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Change in ROIC from Base Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Change in ROIC from Base Base 13.2% -- 13.2% -- 13.2% --

1 13.6% 3% 13.5% 2% 13.9% 5% 2 13.4% 2% 13.2% 0% 14.1% 7% 3 13.5% 2% 13.2% 0% 14.1% 7% 4 13.6% 3% 13.4% 2% 14.3% 8%



### Table 8.36S Changes in ROIC in 2011 — Higher Operating Cost Subgroup

Standard

Level Reverse Engineering NAECA Reverse Engineering Roll-up Reverse Engineering Shift Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Change in ROIC from Base Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Change in ROIC from Base Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Change in ROIC from Base Base 13.0% -- 13.0% -- 13.0% --

1 12.2% -6% 10.7% -18% 14.0% 8% 2 10.2% -22% 8.5% -35% 14.4% 11% 3 10.0% -23% 8.4% -35% 14.2% 9% 4 9.7% -25% 8.4% -35% 14.1% 8%

### J-33 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 -40

0 40 80 Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4 TSL3 TSL2 TSL1 Base



### Figure 8.9S Net Cash Flows for the Lower Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse Engineering, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 -40

0 40 80 Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4 TSL3 TSL2 Base TSL1



### Figure 8.10S Net Cash Flows for the Lower Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse Engineering, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario

### J-34 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201 6 -40

0 40 80 Effective Date = Jan 1 , 2006

TSL4 TSL3 TSL2 TSL1 Base



### Figure 8.11S Net Cash Flows for the Lower Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse Engineering, Shift Efficiency Scenario

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 -40

0 40 80 120 160

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4

TSL3 Base

TSL2 TSL1



### Figure 8.12S Net Cash Flows for the Higher Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse Engineering, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

### J-35 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 -40

0 40 80 120 160
Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4 TSL3 TSL2 TSL1 Base



### Figure 8.14S Net Cash Flows for the Higher Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse Engineering, Shift Efficiency Scenario 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 -40

0 40 80 120 160

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4 TSL3 TSL2 TSL1 Base



### Figure 8.13S Net Cash Flows for the Higher Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse Engineering, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario

### J-36 J.4 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES TO CHAPTER 10

Table 10.3S Split A/C: LCC Result Comparisons between Low-Income Households and Overall Sample based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Low-Income Households All Households and Commercial Buildings
Efficiency

SEER Average LCC Avg LCC (Savings)

Costs Net Savings (>2%) No Signif. Impact Net Costs (>2%) Average LCC Avg LCC (Savings)

Costs Net Savings (>2%) No Signif. Impact Net Costs (>2%) 10 $4,906 - - - - $5,170 - - - - 11 $4,855 ($51) 21% 74% 5% $5,095 ($75) 28% 70% 2% 12 $4,841 ($65) 28% 38% 34% $5,057 ($113) 35% 40% 25% 13 $4,863 ($43) 26% 24% 50% $5,057 ($113) 34% 27% 39% 18 $5,176 $270 17% 6% 77% $5,307 $137 25% 7% 68% 

### Table 10.4S Split Heat Pump: LCC Result Comparisons between Low-Income Households and Overall Sample based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Low-Income Households All Households and Commercial Buildings
Efficiency

SEER Average LCC Avg LCC (Savings)

Costs Net Savings (>2%) No Signif. Impact Net Costs (>2%) Average LCC Avg LCC (Savings)

Costs Net Savings (>2%) No Signif. Impact Net Costs (>2%) 10 $8,965 - - - - $9,679 - - - - 11 $8,836 ($129) 26% 74% 0% $9,470 ($209) 40% 60% 0% 12 $8,742 ($223) 44% 56% 0% $9,314 ($365) 58% 42% 0% 13 $8,780 ($185) 39% 49% 12% $9,307 ($372) 52% 42% 6% 18 $9,389 $424 15% 10% 75% $9,720 $41 28% 15% 57% 

### Table 10.5S Package A/C: LCC Result Comparisons between Low-Income Households and Overall Sample based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Low-Income Households All Households and Commercial Buildings
Efficiency

SEER Average LCC Avg LCC (Savings)

Costs Net Savings (>2%) No Signif. Impact Net Costs (>2%) Average LCC Avg LCC (Savings)

Costs Net Savings (>2%) No Signif. Impact Net Costs (>2%) 10 $5,327 - - - - $5,629 - - - - 11 $5,272 ($55) 21% 77% 2% $5,551 ($78) 27% 72% 1% 12 $5,202 ($125) 34% 52% 14% $5,466 ($163) 40% 51% 9% 13 $5,364 $37 21% 18% 61% $5,600 ($29) 28% 20% 52% 18 $5,704 $377 15% 5% 80% $5,905 $276 21% 6% 73%

### J-37 Table 10.6S Package Heat Pump: LCC Result Comparisons between Low-Income Households and Overall Sample based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs Low-Income Households All Households and Commercial Buildings
Efficiency

SEER Average LCC Avg LCC (Savings)

Costs Net Savings (>2%) No Signif. Impact Net Costs (>2%) Average LCC Avg LCC (Savings)

Costs Net Savings (>2%) No Signif. Impact Net Costs (>2%) 10 $9,149 - - - - $9,626 - - - - 11 $9,031 ($118) 24% 76% 0% $9,419 ($207) 39% 61% 0% 12 $8,884 ($265) 52% 48% 0% $9,205 ($421) 66% 34% 0% 13 $9,001 ($148) 36% 44% 20% $9,273 ($353) 50% 38% 12% 18 $9,433 $284 20% 14% 66% $9,460 ($166) 37% 15% 48%J-38NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,185 1,281 1,375 1,454 1,539 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -4.3 -9.8 -14.4 -17.5 -19.5Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,930 2,127 2,171 2,249 2,341 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -2.3 -6.1 -6.1 -6.1Gas (TWh) 601 717 998 1,289 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -8.3 -9.1 -9.1 -9.1Petroleum (TWh) 90 68 53 47 45 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh) 3,698 3,997 4,278 4,533 4,727 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -4.6 -10.2 -14.3 -14.3 -14.3Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 310.6 310.7 315.6 325.2 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 334.0 404.2 458.0 501.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -3.8 -5.7 -5.7 -5.7Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.3 836.5 900.6 944.8 989.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -4.0 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5Table 11.2S Standard Level 1 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency ScenarioJ.5 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES TO CHAPTER 11J-39NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,185 1,281 1,371 1,447 1,527 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.6 -17.3 -25.6 -31.0 -34.6Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,930 2,127 2,169 2,247 2,337 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.6 -4.2 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3Gas (TWh) 601 717 997 1,283 1,460 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -4.4 -13.9 -15.7 -15.7 -15.7Petroleum (TWh) 90 68 53 47 45 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.2 1.3 1.3 1.3Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Total (TWh) 3,698 3,997 4,275 4,525 4,716 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.9 -17.7 -24.8 -24.8 -24.8Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 310.6 310.7 315.4 324.7 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 334.0 403.8 455.5 498.3 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -6.3 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.3 836.5 900.3 942.2 985.7 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -6.6 -10.6 -10.6 -10.6Table 11.3S Standard Level 2 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency ScenarioJ-40NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,185 1,281 1,370 1,444 1,523 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -8.8 -20.1 -29.7 -36.1 -40.3Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,930 2,127 2,169 2,246 2,335 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -4.9 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0Gas (TWh) 601 717 996 1,281 1,458 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -5.1 -16.1 -18.2 -18.2 -18.2Petroleum (TWh) 90 68 53 47 45 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.2 0.3 1.5 1.5 1.5Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Total (TWh) 3,698 3,997 4,274 4,522 4,712 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -9.2 -20.6 -28.8 -28.8 -28.8Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 310.6 310.7 315.4 324.5 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 334.0 403.7 454.5 496.8 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -7.3 -10.8 -10.8 -10.8Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.3 836.5 900.1 941.1 983.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -7.7 -12.4 -12.4 -12.4Table 11.4S Standard Level 3 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency ScenarioJ-41NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,185 1,281 1,368 1,439 1,516 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.9 -24.9 -36.9 -44.9 -50.2Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,930 2,127 2,171 2,245 2,332 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -5.8 -14.7 -14.7 -14.7Gas (TWh) 601 717 992 1,277 1,454 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -8.7 -20.3 -22.5 -22.5 -22.5Petroleum (TWh) 90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.5 2.0 2.0 2.0Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh) 3,698 3,997 4,272 4,518 4,706 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.0 -25.2 -35.2 -35.2 -35.2Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 310.6 310.7 315.3 324.1 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 334.0 403.4 452.5 494.0 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.3 -13.6 -13.6 -13.6Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.3 836.5 899.8 939.0 980.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -9.8 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5Table 11.5S Standard Level 4 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency ScenarioJ-42NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,185 1,281 1,358 1,416 1,480 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -20.6 -48.0 -72.7 -89.7 -100.8Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,930 2,127 2,169 2,240 2,320 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -3.1 -11.4 -26.7 -26.7 -26.7Gas (TWh) 601 717 986 1,261 1,437 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -36.3 -38.6 -38.6 -38.6Petroleum (TWh) 90 68 52 47 42 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.8 0.4 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 411 429 437 448 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5Total (TWh) 3,698 3,997 4,263 4,496 4,674 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -20.1 -47.0 -67.0 -67.0 -67.0Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 310.6 310.6 314.8 322.4 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 334.0 402.4 445.0 482.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -2.3 -16.8 -25.2 -25.2 -25.2Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.6 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Total (GW) 782.3 836.5 898.8 931.0 967.5 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -2.4 -17.8 -28.8 -28.8 -28.8Figure 11.6S Standard Level 5 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency ScenarioJ-43NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,185 1,281 1,368 1,440 1,517 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.6 -24.2 -35.8 -43.6 -48.7Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,930 2,127 2,170 2,245 2,332 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.7 -5.9 -14.9 -14.9 -14.9Gas (TWh) 601 717 993 1,277 1,454 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.8 -19.9 -22.1 -22.1 -22.1Petroleum (TWh) 90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 2.0Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh) 3,698 3,997 4,272 4,518 4,706 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.0 -25.3 -34.9 -34.9 -34.9Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 310.6 310.7 315.3 324.1 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 334.0 403.4 452.7 494.1 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.1 -13.5 -13.5 -13.5Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.3 836.5 899.8 939.2 980.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -9.6 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5Table 11.7S Standard Level 4 Roll-up Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing CostsJ-44NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,185 1,281 1,367 1,437 1,513 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.8 -27.1 -40.2 -49.1 -54.9Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,930 2,127 2,169 2,245 2,331 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.7 -6.2 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0Gas (TWh) 601 717 993 1,276 1,452 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.7 -21.4 -23.8 -23.8 -23.8Petroleum (TWh) 90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 0.3 2.0 2.0 2.0Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh) 3,698 3,997 4,271 4,516 4,703 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.8 -26.9 -37.8 -37.8 -37.8Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 310.6 310.7 315.2 323.9 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 334.0 403.4 452.1 493.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.7 -14.4 -14.4 -14.4Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.6 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Total (GW) 782.3 836.5 899.8 938.5 979.7 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -10.3 -16.6 -16.6 -16.6Table 11.8S Standard Level 4 Shift Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing CostsJ-45NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 Lmac ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,183 1,275 1,356 1,414 1,469 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.4 -23.8 -35.8 -44.6 -50.6Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,923 2,105 2,131 2,170 2,208 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.9 -2.1 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6Gas (TWh) 591 683 933 1,178 1,311 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.4 -21.9 -26.2 -26.2 -26.2Petroleum (TWh) 85 60 42 39 35 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 428 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 388 409 425 433 441 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4Total (TWh) 3,675 3,931 4,158 4,331 4,423 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.0 -23.4 -33.2 -33.2 -33.2Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 309.6 308.0 309.4 310.8 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6Other Fossil (GW) 275.0 325.3 387.7 426.1 458.7 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -8.8 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.3 101.2 103.0 104.4 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.5 826.6 881.0 905.8 930.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.0 -14.5 -14.5 -14.5Table 11.9S Standard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs,NAECA Efficiency ScenarioJ-46NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 Hmac ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,183 1,286 1,379 1,460 1,544 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.6 -26.2 -38.6 -47.0 -52.6Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,937 2,159 2,230 2,368 2,601 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -11.3 -28.1 -28.1 -28.1Gas (TWh) 615 762 1,063 1,357 1,468 Gas (TWh) 0.0 -0.4 -9.2 -16.2 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9Petroleum (TWh) 95 83 74 65 70 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.6 0.4 1.8 1.8 1.8Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 510 440 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 414 435 446 459 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Total (TWh) 3,724 4,092 4,429 4,746 5,037 Total (TWh) 0.0 -0.4 -12.3 -27.1 -36.5 -36.5 -36.5Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 311.2 315.4 329.8 358.5 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 340.1 426.3 481.9 516.7 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -9.8 -12.5 -12.5 -12.5Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 58.7 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.9 99.1 102.7 105.1 107.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.5 843.8 928.5 984.3 1,041.4 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -10.8 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0Table 11.10S Standard Level 4 High Economic Growth Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs,NAECA Efficiency ScenarioJ-47NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,185 1,281 1,369 1,440 1,518 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.4 -23.8 -35.4 -43.3 -48.4Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,930 2,127 2,172 2,246 2,333 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -5.5 -14.2 -14.2 -14.2Gas (TWh) 601 717 992 1,278 1,455 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -8.7 -19.1 -21.2 -21.2 -21.2Petroleum (TWh) 90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.3 1.6 1.6 1.6Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh) 3,698 3,997 4,273 4,519 4,707 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.0 -24.0 -33.8 -33.8 -33.8Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 310.6 310.7 315.3 324.2 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 334.0 403.4 453.0 494.5 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -8.8 -13.1 -13.1 -13.1Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.3 836.5 899.9 939.5 981.3 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.3 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0Table 11.7A Standard Level 4 Roll-up Forecast based on ARI Mean Manufacturing CostsJ-48NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,185 1,281 1,368 1,438 1,513 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.4 -26.5 -39.6 -48.6 -54.5Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,930 2,127 2,171 2,244 2,331 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -6.5 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0Gas (TWh) 601 717 992 1,276 1,452 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -9.5 -21.1 -23.7 -23.7 -23.7Petroleum (TWh) 90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.1 0.2 2.1 2.1 2.1Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh) 3,698 3,997 4,272 4,516 4,703 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.5 -27.0 -37.5 -37.5 -37.5Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 310.6 310.7 315.2 323.9 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 334.0 403.3 452.2 493.3 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -9.6 -14.3 -14.3 -14.3Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.3 836.5 899.8 938.7 979.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -10.1 -16.4 -16.4 -16.4Table 11.8A Standard Level 4 Shift Forecast based on ARI Mean Manufacturing CostsJ-49NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 Lmac ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,183 1,275 1,356 1,415 1,470 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.1 -23.4 -35.4 -44.3 -50.4Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,923 2,105 2,132 2,170 2,209 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.8 -2.4 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1Gas (TWh) 591 683 932 1,179 1,312 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.9 -20.6 -25.4 -25.4 -25.4Petroleum (TWh) 85 60 42 39 35 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 511 428 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 388 409 425 433 441 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Total (TWh) 3,675 3,931 4,159 4,332 4,424 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.3 -22.5 -32.2 -32.2 -32.2Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 309.6 308.0 309.4 310.8 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6Other Fossil (GW) 275.0 325.3 387.7 426.4 459.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -8.5 -13.4 -13.4 -13.4Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.7 98.3 101.2 103.0 104.4 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.5 826.6 881.0 906.2 931.5 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -8.6 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9Table 11.9A Standard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast based on ARI Mean Manufacturing Costs,NAECA Efficiency ScenarioJ-50NEMS-BRS Results: Difference from AEO2000 Hmac ReferenceExtrapolation2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,183 1,286 1,380 1,460 1,545 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.4 -25.8 -38.2 -46.6 -52.3Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 1,937 2,159 2,229 2,368 2,601 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.1 -11.1 -27.8 -27.8 -27.8Gas (TWh) 615 762 1,064 1,358 1,469 Gas (TWh) 0.0 -0.4 -8.2 -15.1 -8.8 -8.8 -8.8Petroleum (TWh) 95 83 74 65 70 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.8 0.0 1.5 1.5 1.5Nuclear (TWh) 688 674 627 510 440 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 389 414 435 446 459 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Total (TWh) 3,724 4,092 4,429 4,747 5,039 Total (TWh) 0.0 -0.4 -12.2 -26.2 -35.4 -35.4 -35.4Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 315.3 311.2 315.4 329.9 358.6 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4Other Fossil (GW) 274.8 340.1 426.5 482.0 517.1 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -9.7 -12.1 -12.1 -12.1Nuclear (GW) 97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 58.7 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 94.9 99.1 102.7 105.1 107.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW) 782.5 843.8 928.7 984.4 1,041.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -10.7 -15.6 -15.6 -15.6Table 11.10A Standard Level 4 High Economic Growth Forecast based on ARI Mean Manufacturing Costs,NAECA Efficiency Scenario

### J-51 -70.0 -60.0 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0

0.0 10.020062011201620212026

YearJobs (Thousands) Trial Standard 1 Trial Standard 2 Trial Standard 3 Trial Standard 4 Trial Standard 5



### Figure 12.1S Net National Employment Impacts J.6 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES AND FIGURES TO CHAPTER 12

Table 12.1S Net National Change in Jobs Trial Standard Level 2010 (thousands) 2020 (thousands) 2030 (thousands) 1 -4.9 -0.8 1.0 2 -11.5 

### -3.8 -0.9 3 -14.9 -6.5 -3.4 4 -22.6 -12.8 -9.5 5 -57.3 -52.4 -52.5

### J-52 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0

0.0 10.0 20.020062011201620212026

YearJobs (Thousands)

Trial Standard 1 Trial Standard 2 Trial Standard 3 Trial Standard 4 Trial Standard 5


### Figure 12.2S Employment Impacts of Consumer Savings

-30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.020062011201620212026

YearJobs (Thousands)

Trial Standard 1 Trial Standard 2 Trial Standard 3 Trial Standard 4 Trial Standard 5



### Figure 12.3S Economic Impacts of Changes in Equipment Cost

### J-53 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0

-5.0 0.0 5.020062011201620212026

YearJobs (Thousands)

Trial Standard 1 Trial Standard 2 Trial Standard 3 Trial Standard 4 Trial Standard 5 `



### Figure 12.4S Economic Impacts of Changes in Utility Savings

### J-54 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 55.54% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($75) .000 .011 .021 .032 .042

0 106 212 318 424

($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200 

## 10,000 Trials 285 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.1S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 55.54% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($75) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200 

## 10,000 Trials 285 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.2S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs J.7 SUPPLEMENTAL FIGURES TO APPENDIX E

### J-55 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 50.70% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($113) .000 .011 .021 .032 .042

0 105.2 210.5 315.7 421

($1,000) ($625) ($250) $125 $500 

## 10,000 Trials 330 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.3S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 50.70% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($113) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($1,000) ($625) ($250) $125 $500 

## 10,000 Trials 330 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.4S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-56 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 45.29% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($113) .000 .011 .023 .034 .045

0 112.7 225.5 338.2 451

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750 

## 10,000 Trials 234 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.5S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 45.29% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($113) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750 

## 10,000 Trials 234 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.6S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-57 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 28.38% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = $137 .000 .011 .022 .034 .045

0 111.7 223.5 335.2 447

($2,500) ($1,375) ($250) $875 $2,000 

## 10,000 Trials 213 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.7S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 28.38% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = $137 .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($2,500) ($1,375) ($250) $875 $2,000 

## 10,000 Trials 213 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.8S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-58 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 92.43% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($209) .000 .008 .017 .025 .034

0 83.75 167.5 251.2 335

($800) ($550) ($300) ($50) $200 

## 10,000 Trials 288 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.9S Split HP, 11 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 92.43% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($209) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($800) ($550) ($300) ($50) $200 

## 10,000 Trials 288 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.10S Split HP, 11 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-59 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 88.80% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($365) .000 .008 .016 .023 .031

0 78 156 234 312

($1,500) ($1,063) ($625) ($188) $250 

## 10,000 Trials 272 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.11S Split HP, 12 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 88.80% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($365) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($1,500) ($1,063) ($625) ($188) $250 

## 10,000 Trials 272 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.12S Split HP, 12 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-60 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 73.25% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($372) .000 .008 .015 .023 .030

0 75.75 151.5 227.2 303

($2,000) ($1,375) ($750) ($125) $500 

## 10,000 Trials 231 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.13S Split HP, 13 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 73.25% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($372) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($2,000) ($1,375) ($750) ($125) $500 

## 10,000 Trials 231 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.14S Split HP, 13 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-61 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 35.06% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = $41 .000 .009 .018 .027 .036

0 88.75 177.5 266.2 355

($3,000) ($1,750) ($500) $750 $2,000 

## 10,000 Trials 231 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.15S Split HP, 18 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 35.06% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = $41 .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($3,000) ($1,750) ($500) $750 $2,000 

## 10,000 Trials 231 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.16S Split HP, 18 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-62 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 55.82% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($78) .000 .011 .022 .032 .043

0 107.7 215.5 323.2 431

($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200 

## 10,000 Trials 262 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.17S Single Package A/C, 11 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 55.82% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($78) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200 

## 10,000 Trials 262 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.18S Single Package A/C, 11 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-63 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 60.57% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($163) .000 .011 .022 .033 .045

0 111.2 222.5 333.7 445

($1,250) ($875) ($500) ($125) $250 

## 10,000 Trials 191 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.19S Single Package A/C, 12 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 60.57% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($163) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($1,250) ($875) ($500) ($125) $250 

## 10,000 Trials 191 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.20S Single Package A/C, 12 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-64 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 35.85% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($29) .000 .011 .022 .033 .045

0 111.2 222.5 333.7 445

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750 

## 10,000 Trials 197 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.21S Single Package A/C, 13 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 35.85% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = ($29) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750 

## 10,000 Trials 197 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.22S Single Package A/C, 13 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-65 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 23.72% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = $276 .000 .011 .023 .034 .045

0 113.2 226.5 339.7 453

($2,500) ($1,375) ($250) $875 $2,000 

## 10,000 Trials 203 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.23S Single Package A/C, 18 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 23.72% from -Infinity to $0 $ Mean = $276 .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($2,500) ($1,375) ($250) $875 $2,000 

## 10,000 Trials 203 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.24S Single Package A/C, 18 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-66 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 86.80% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($207) .000 .008 .016 .024 .032

0 80.5 161 241.5 322

($900) ($625) ($350) ($75) $200 

## 10,000 Trials 193 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.25S Single Package HP, 11 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 86.80% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($207) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($900) ($625) ($350) ($75) $200 

## 10,000 Trials 193 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.26S Single Package HP, 11 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-67 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 91.89% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($421) .000 .008 .015 .023 .030

0 76 152 228 304

($1,750) ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 

## 10,000 Trials 150 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.27S Single Package HP, 12 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 91.89% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($421) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($1,750) ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 

## 10,000 Trials 150 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.28S Single Package HP, 12 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-68 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 68.85% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($353) .000 .007 .015 .022 .030

0 74.5 149 223.5 298

($2,000) ($1,313) ($625) $63 $750 

## 10,000 Trials 241 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.29S Single Package HP, 13 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 68.85% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($353) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($2,000) ($1,313) ($625) $63 $750 

## 10,000 Trials 241 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.30S Single Package HP, 13 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-69 

## Frequency Chart

Certainty is 43.94% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($166) .000 .009 .018 .026 .035

0 87.5 175 262.5 350

($3,500) ($2,000) ($500) $1,000 $2,500 

## 10,000 Trials 228 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.31S Single Package HP, 18 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs



## Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 43.94% from -Infinity to $0 Mean = ($166) .000 .250 .500 .750 1.000

0 10000

($3,500) ($2,000) ($500) $1,000 $2,500 

## 10,000 Trials 228 Outliers Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.32S Single Package HP, 18 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-70 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.45 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.1.1S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 11 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Split A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 3.23 Total Equipment Cost 2.56 Net Present Benefit 0.68 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.26

Table F.1.2S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.1S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs 

### J.8 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES AND FIGURES TO APPENDIX F

### J-71 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.79 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 1.84 1.84 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.2.1S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 12 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Split A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 5.84 Total Equipment Cost 5.48 Net Present Benefit 0.36 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.07

Table F.2.2S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.2S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-72 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 1.11 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 2.60 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.3.1S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 13 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Split A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 8.19 Total Equipment Cost 8.68 Net Present Benefit -0.50 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.94

Table F.3.2S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.3S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-73 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 2.09 2.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.4.1S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 18 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Split A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 11.77 Total Equipment Cost 18.43 Net Present Benefit -6.67 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.64

Table F.4.2S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.4S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-74 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.19 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.45 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.5.1S Split HP, 11 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 11 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Split HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 1.18 Total Equipment Cost 0.48 Net Present Benefit 0.70 Benefit/Cost Ratio 2.47

Table F.5.2S Split HP, 11 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.5S Split HP, 11 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-75 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.35 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.82 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.6.1S Split HP, 12 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 12 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Split HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 2.18 Total Equipment Cost 1.08 Net Present Benefit 1.09 Benefit/Cost Ratio 2.01

Table F.6.2S Split HP, 12 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.6S Split HP, 12 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-76 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.53 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 1.24 1.24 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.7.1S Split HP, 13 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 13 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Split HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 3.29 Total Equipment Cost 2.53 Net Present Benefit 0.76 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.30

Table F.7.2S Split HP, 13 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.7S Split HP, 13 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-77 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 1.09 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 2.60 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.8.1S Split HP, 18 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 18 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Split HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 5.15 Total Equipment Cost 7.49 Net Present Benefit -2.34 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.69

Table F.8.2S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.8S Split HP, 18 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-78 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.9.1S Pack. A/C, 11 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 11 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Package A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 0.42 Total Equipment Cost 0.30 Net Present Benefit 0.12 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.39 Table F.9.2S Pack. A/C, 11 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.9S Package A/C, 11 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-79 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 Table F.10.1S Pack. A/C, 12 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 12 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Package A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 0.72 Total Equipment Cost 0.52 Net Present Benefit 0.20 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.39 Table F.10.2S Pack. A/C, 12 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.10S Package A/C, 12 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-80 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.31 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 Table F.11.1S Pack. A/C, 13 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 13 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Package A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 0.98 Total Equipment Cost 1.28 Net Present Benefit -0.30 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.77 Table F.11.2S Pack. A/C, 13 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.11S Package A/C, 13 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-81 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.58 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 Table F.12.1S Pack. A/C, 18 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 18 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Package A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 1.31 Total Equipment Cost 2.39 Net Present Benefit -1.09 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.55 Table F.12.2S Pack. A/C, 18 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.12S Package A/C, 18 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-82 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 Table F.13.1S Pack. HP, 11 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 11 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Package HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 0.19 Total Equipment Cost 0.10 Net Present Benefit 0.09 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.88 Table F.13.2S Pack. HP, 11 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.13S Package HP, 11 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-83 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 Table F.14.1S Pack. HP, 12 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 12 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Package HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 0.33 Total Equipment Cost 0.16 Net Present Benefit 0.17 Benefit/Cost Ratio 2.07 Table F.14.2S Pack. HP, 12 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.14S Package HP, 12 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-84 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.19 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 Table F.15.1S Pack. HP, 13 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 13 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Package HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 0.49 Total Equipment Cost 0.46 Net Present Benefit 0.03 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.06 Table F.15.2S Pack. HP, 13 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.15S Package HP, 13 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

### J-85 Energy Saving in Quads Total Elec Gas Oil LPG from 2006 to 2010 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2020 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 to 2030 0.37 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 Table F.16.1S Pack. HP, 18 SEER: Energy Savings based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs



### CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 18 SEER Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$) Cumulative for Package HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to year 1998 Total Operating Savings 0.76 Total Equipment Cost 0.98 Net Present Benefit -0.23 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.77 Table F.16.2S Pack. HP, 18 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25Billion 1998 Dollars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Price Change Operating S avings Net S aving



### Figure F.16S Package HP, 18 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs