Arms Control and International Security Papers

Volume I | Number 24

December 29, 2020

Issues to Watch in Arms

Control, Nonproliferation, 

and Disarmament

by Christopher A. Ford
Arms Control and International Security Papers Volume 1, Number 24 | December 29, 2020

Issues to Watch in Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament

Issues to Watch in Arms Control, 

Nonproliferation, and Disarmament

by Christopher A. Ford

Assistant Secretary Ford surveys a number of current questions in the arms 

control, nonproliferation, and disarmament arenas, identifying key “issues to 

watch” in the years ahead.

former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry has 

admitted
Arms Control and International Security Papers Volume 1, Number 24 | December 29, 2020

Issues to Watch in Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament

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dreamed up 

merely in order to sound less worrisome to Americans 

traditionally suspicious of NFU

As I have pointed 

out elsewhere

a blow to the heart of our 

alliance system

my analysis of this question in May 

2019

In a panel discussion at the Nov. 12, 2020, European Union conference, I confronted PRC Ambassador Fu Cong with the contradiction between 

Beijing’s “no first use” policy and the reality of its massive nuclear build-up. If the PRC really had an NFU policy, I pointed out, it would have no 

reason to expand its nuclear weapons stockpile in recent years, since the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals have shrunk to only a fraction of their 

previous size over the last generation. If nuclear weapons are just to deter other nuclear weapons, why has China still continued to build more 

weapons even while the U.S. nuclear threat facing it has shrunk? Fu’s answer was telling: he did not deny that the PRC was expanding its arsenal –

claiming merely that “China will not expand its nuclear arsenal to a large extent” (emphasis added) – but declared that Chinese policy was a 

reaction to the PRC facing “more threats from the U.S.” Since the United States is not adding to the size of its own arsenal, and indeed U.S. 

warhead numbers have been shrinking since 1967, Fu thus admitted that Beijing does not regard Chinese nuclear weapons as having the sole 

purpose of deterring other nuclear weapons, but instead sees them as having a role in deterring non-nuclear threats as well. I do not fault the 

theory that nuclear weapons have potential value in deterring grave non-nuclear threats, for that’s certainly true in principle. But one cannot say 

this and pretend to have a “no first use” policy at the same time.

demonstrating how NFU can 

actually undermine deterrence and stability

2010 Nuclear Posture 

Review
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commitment 

to create the conditions

Prague speech” of 

April 2009

proposed cutting our deployed strategic 

arsenal by an additional one-third

unilaterally retired our sole remaining 

sea-launched nuclear cruise missile
Arms Control and International Security Papers Volume 1, Number 24 | December 29, 2020

Issues to Watch in Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament

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biological weapons program

madly reckless flying Chernobyl

Treaty 

of Tlatelolco
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2010 NPR

2018 NPR

Additional Protocol II to 

the Treaty of Tlatelolco

2010 NPR
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Issues to Watch in Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament

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2018 NPR
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Issues to Watch in Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament

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Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, 

Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and 

Commitments

2020 Compliance Report
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Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties

rightly criticized at the time

a recent monograph in our Arms 

Control and International Security Papers series
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more than 40 years old
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It was precisely this problem that led to the U.S. exit from the JCPOA. As I have recounted elsewhere, in late 2017 and early 2018, Special Envoy 

Brian Hook and I met repeatedly with European counterparts to try to work through a way to get their commitment to putting permanent limits 

on Iranian nuclear capabilities in return for the United States not leaving the deal. They refused.

Thirteen 

Practical Steps
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I noted in a recent ACIS 

Paper

U.N. General Assembly resolution in December 1976 calling for aid to drought-stricken areas of Ethiopia

Food and Agriculture Organization 

records show a terrible low point in food supply there that year

endless procession declarations by 

States Party

2010 NPT RevCon Final 

Document

still call 

for more to be done to implement the “Thirteen Steps

I have made this point elsewhere
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