18 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Crops 

Near-term weakness in the global economy diminishes demand growth for crops over the next 

several years. However, steady economic growth assumed later in the projections provides a more 

favorable demand setting. Although corn-based ethanol production in the United States is 

projected to slow, the large expansion in recent years keeps this use of corn high. In combination, 

these factors support longer run increases in global consumption and trade, with prices, although 

lower than in early 2008, remaining at historically high levels. 

Projections for field crops reflect provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 

(2008 Farm Act), which are assumed to continue through the projection period. An important 

change in the 2008 Farm Act was the reduction in the maximum acreage enrollment in the 

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Rather than the previous cap on enrollment of 39.2 million 

acres, the new farm legislation sets the maximum at 32 million acres, beginning on October 1, 

2009. With CRP enrollment at 34.8 million acres on September 30, 2008, this policy change 

provides some additional cropland for potential use in production rather than tightening cropland 

availability over the projection period. 

Sustained high prices prompted by strong demand combined with reduced CRP enrollment keep 

U.S. cropland use high in the projections. Although declining somewhat from the high plantings 

in 2008 of over 252 million acres, projected plantings for the 8 major field crops remain near 

250 million acres over the next 10 years. 

225

250

275

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. planted area: Eight major crops 1/

Million acres

1/ The eight major crops are corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, 

upland cotton, and soybeans.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 19

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. planted area: Corn, wheat, and soybeans

Million acres

Corn

Wheat

Soybeans

Plantings of different crops are influenced by expected net returns. Net returns are determined by 

market prices, yields, and production costs, with returns augmented by marketing loan benefits 

when prices are low. Producer planting decisions are also affected by revenue protection available 

through the Federal Crop Insurance program and the new Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) 

program, which starts in 2009 under the 2008 Farm Act. 

 A gradual shift to corn away from other crops reflects the high levels of domestic cornbased ethanol production and gains in exports that keep corn demand and producer returns 

strong. Following a decline in 2008, corn acreage increases to 90 million acres by 2011 

and remains at or above that level over the remainder of the projection period. 

 

 Soybean plantings decline over the next several years, but remain above 70 million acres as 

net returns remain favorable. 

 

 Wheat plantings decline from the high level of 2008 as producer returns are lower. Wheat 

acreage falls below 60 million acres in the longer run as weak demand growth reduces the 

crop’s competitiveness for land relative to other crops. 
20 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Corn-based Ethanol Expansion Projected To Slow 

Ethanol production in the United States has increased rapidly over the past several years, from less 

than 3 billion gallons in 2003 to over 9 billion gallons in 2008. Most ethanol production in the 

United States currently uses corn as the feedstock, with close to a third of total corn use expected 

to go to ethanol production in the 2008/09 corn crop year. 

These projections assume the tax credit available to blenders of ethanol and the 54-cent-per-gallon 

tariff on imported fuel ethanol remain in effect. While expansion in the ethanol industry continues, 

smaller gains for corn-based ethanol are projected, largely reflecting moderate growth in overall 

gasoline consumption in the United States. By the end of the projection period, ethanol production 

accounts for about 35 percent of corn use and corn-based ethanol production exceeds 9 percent of 

annual gasoline consumption. The continued presence of ethanol demand in the corn sector, in 

combination with other long-term factors, holds prices for corn and many other crops well above 

their historical levels, although season-average annual prices are not projected to reach the record 

highs seen in the first half of 2008. 

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. corn: Use for ethanol production

Billion bushels

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Ethanol

FSI less ethanol 1/

Exports

Feed & residual 

U.S. corn use

Billion bushels

1/ Food, seed, and industrial use less ethanol. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 21

0

2

4

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. corn: Feed use, ethanol, and exports

Billion bushels

Feed use

Exports

Ethanol

Domestic corn use grows throughout the projection period, largely reflecting increases in corn 

used in the production of ethanol. Global economic growth underlies increases in U.S. corn 

exports. 

 Continued increases are projected for corn used to produce ethanol over the next 10 years, 

although the pace slows from the rapid gains of the past several years. Projected gains after 

2009/10 are largely in line with moderate expected increases in overall gasoline usage in 

the United States. 

 Feed and residual use of corn bottoms out in the initial years due to reduced meat 

production and increased feeding of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol 

production. Feed use rises through the rest of the projections as meat production picks up 

and growth in availability of distillers grains slows with the reduced pace of corn-based 

ethanol expansion. 

 Gains in food and industrial uses of corn (other than for ethanol production) are projected 

to be smaller than increases in population. Consumer dietary concerns and other changes 

in tastes and preferences limit increases in the combined use of corn for high fructose corn 

syrup, glucose, and dextrose to about half the rate of population gain. Starch use initially 

declines due to the slowing U.S. economy, but grows moderately thereafter. 

 U.S. corn exports rise in response to stronger global demand for feed grains to support 

growth in meat production, with the U.S. share of global corn trade holding in the 55-60 

percent range. 
22 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. wheat: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

Overall demand in the U.S. wheat sector grows slowly through the projection period. 

 

 Domestic demand for wheat reflects a relatively mature market. Food use of wheat is 

projected to show moderate gains, generally in line with population increases. 

 

 Feed use of wheat, a lower value use of the crop, declines through the projection period 

from the relatively high levels of 2008/09. 

 U.S. wheat exports increase slowly over the projection period as competition from the 

European Union (EU), Canada, Argentina, Australia, and the Black Sea region limits 

further gains. In particular, wheat prices are projected at levels high enough that the EU 

can export wheat without subsidies, thus permitting higher EU exports. Although the U.S. 

market share initially increases from 22 percent in 2008/09, it falls over the latter part of 

the projections to about 21 percent by 2018/19. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 23

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. soybeans: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

Domestic use of soybeans continues to rise slowly. U.S. soybean exports remain high but with 

little growth as more soybeans are processed domestically. 

 

 Declines in the livestock sector initially reduce demand for soybean meal for livestock 

feed, thereby lowering domestic soybean crush in the near term. However, once meat 

production gains resume, soybean crush will follow. Then, longrun growth in domestic 

soybean crush is mostly driven by increasing domestic soybean meal demand. 

 U.S. soybean exports hold fairly flat near 1.2 billion bushels. While this is a historically 

high level of exports, competition from South America limits U.S. exports from further 

growth. Consequently, the U.S. market share of global soybean trade declines from 40 

percent in 2009/10 to about 30 percent at the end of the projections. 

 Strengthening competition from Argentina and Brazil, combined with increasing use for 

the growing U.S. livestock sector, lead to only small gains in U.S. soybean meal exports 

from 2009/10-2018/19, reducing the U.S. export share in global soybean meal trade. U.S 

soybean oil exports similarly face increasing competition from South America. 
24 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. farm-level prices: Corn, wheat, and soybeans

Dollars per bushel

Corn

Wheat

Soybeans

Projected farm-level prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans fall from the very high levels seen in 

2007/08 and 2008/09 that reflected a number of short-term factors. However, prices are projected 

to remain historically high due to the influence of continuing longer term factors, including 

structural shifts that drive demand for these crops. 

 Corn prices initially fall from their high 2008/09 level as increases in ethanol production 

slow and corn stocks build. In the longer run, corn prices remain higher than their pre2006 levels due to continued demand for corn to produce ethanol as well as growth in feed 

use and exports. 

 Land-use competition from corn keeps soybean acreage from rising and holds soybean 

prices high throughout the projections. 

 As for other crops, wheat prices decline from current levels in the early years of the 

projections, although they remain historically high. Price increases in the latter years of the 

projections are moderate as yield gains mostly offset demand increases (despite falling 

acreage), keeping stocks relatively stable. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. rice: Domestic use and exports

Million hundredweight

Domestic use

Exports

Continued expansion in domestic food use of rice is projected over the next decade. U.S. rice 

exports increase as well, but somewhat slower than overall growth in global rice trade. 

 

 Domestic use of rice is projected to grow somewhat faster than population growth. Imports 

of aromatic varieties of rice from Asia account for a growing share of domestic use in the 

projections. 

 U.S. rice exports are projected to increase as the U.S. price difference over Asian 

competitors falls, increasing U.S. competitiveness in global markets. Exports of rough rice 

to Latin America are expected to continue increasing, and account for most of the U.S. 

export expansion. 

 Stocks of rice gradually increase in the projection period, keeping the stocks-to-use ratio at 

11-12 percent. 

 Global rice prices fall over the next several years from recent highs. Over the latter part of 

the projections, global prices increase about 2.5 percent per year, approaching $11 per 

hundredweight (rough basis) at the end of the projection period. These price increases 

largely reflect tightening global stocks due to slow yield growth and little ability to expand 

area in most producing countries. This effect is partially offset by declining global per 

capita disappearance, largely due to dietary shifts away from staple foods in Asia as 

incomes rise. 

 U.S. rice prices follow a similar pattern to global prices, initially declining from the high 

levels of 2008/09 before rising in the latter years of the projections. By the end of the 

projection period, U.S. rice prices increase to $12 per hundredweight. 
26 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. upland cotton: Domestic mill use and exports

Million bales

Domestic mill use

Exports

U.S. mill use of upland cotton continues to decline in the projections while upland cotton exports 

rise after 2010/11. 

 

 The decline in mill use of cotton is projected to continue over the next decade. At the end 

of the projection period, domestic mill use is projected to represent less than one-fourth of 

total use. Underlying this projection, apparel imports by the United States increase over 

the next 10 years, reducing domestic apparel production and lowering the apparel 

industry’s demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States. 

 U.S. upland cotton exports are projected to decline through 2010/11, reflecting a reduction 

in acreage and production and diminished availability of stocks. Exports then grow 

moderately, accounting for over three-fourths of U.S. cotton use by the end of the 

projection period. As a consequence, while the U.S. cotton trade share initially falls below 

30 percent, it then rebounds to nearly 34 percent by the end of the projection period. 

 

 Cotton stocks decline in the first several years of the projections as some acreage shifts to 

other crops. As projected cotton prices strengthen after 2009/10, improved net returns 

provide economic incentives for cotton acreage to rise, and stocks increase through the end 

of the projections. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 27

Two primary determinants of the U.S. sugar projections are implementation of the sugar and 

energy provisions of the 2008 Farm Act and increased imports of sugar from Mexico. 

 The 2008 Farm Act increased the raw sugar loan rate from 18 cents per pound in the 2008 crop 

year to 18.25 cents per pound in the 2009 crop year, to 18.50 cents per pound in the 2010 crop 

year, and to 18.75 cents per pound in the 2011 and 2012 crop years. The refined beet sugar 

loan rate is specified to equal 128.5 percent of the raw cane sugar loan rate. Marketing 

allotments for sugar are set annually at a level not less than 85 percent of estimated sugar 

deliveries for domestic human consumption. 

 Higher support prices help to keep sugar competitive with alternative crops. Beet sugar 

production averages 5.089 million short tons, raw value (STRV) per year over the projections, 

while cane sugar production averages 3.822 million STRV. Both of these projections are about 

9 percent higher than production in the 6-year period covered by the 2002 Farm Act. Higher 

support prices also help to preserve processing capacity. Beet processing capacity is projected 

to increase 3.3 percent in the Red River Valley of the Northern Plains and 2.2 percent in the 

Pacific Northwest, while capacity in the Great Lakes and Great Plains regions are down 

marginally. Cane processing is about the same at the end of the projection period as it was at 

the beginning. (The proposed sale of sugarcane land by the U.S. Sugar Corporation in Florida 

was not included in these projections.) 

 The 2008 Farm Act also introduced the Feedstock Flexibility Program, which requires the 

diversion of sugar from food use to ethanol producers, if needed, to keep sugar prices above 

levels at which sugar processors might otherwise forfeit sugar under loan to the Commodity 

Credit Corporation (CCC). Consequently, there are no sugar loan forfeitures projected because 

of USDA purchases of sugar under this program. These purchases are projected to begin in 

2013/14, with the largest projected purchases in 2014/15. Purchase levels are then somewhat 

lower over the remaining years of the projections. From 2013/14 through the end of the 

projection period, U.S. sugar prices are at the minimum level to avoid forfeiture—about 

21.30 cents per pound for raw sugar (No. 16 NY contract). 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. sugar stocks

Million short tons

Crop year

Total stocks

CCC surplus 

disbursements
28 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Other imports

TRQ impor ts

U.S. sugar imports

Million short tons

Crop year

Increased U.S. imports of sugar from Mexico are a result of increased use of high fructose corn 

syrup (HFCS) in Mexico and duty-free sweetener trade (sugar and HFCS) between the United 

States and Mexico. After a phase-in period, HFCS use by Mexico’s beverage industry is assumed 

to be 75 percent of total sweetener demand by that industry. 

 Although there are fluctuations in sugar exports from Mexico to the United States through 

2014/15, on average these exports increase by 159,000 STRV per year. After this period, 

Mexican sugar consumption increases annually by about 50,000 tons (resulting in per capita 

consumption rising only slightly) and Mexican sugar exports to the United States drop by a 

corresponding amount. 

 Raw and refined sugar tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) are established at the beginning of the 

marketing year at the minimum levels required to comply with international trade agreements 

approved by the U.S. Congress. There are no projections of any midyear increases in TRQs 

throughout the projection period. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 29

Farm sales of horticultural crops are projected to grow by 2.1 percent annually over the next decade, 

reaching $71.6 billion in calendar year 2018, up from $58 billion in 2008. U.S. horticultural trade 

continues to become increasingly important, both in terms of the export share of production and the 

import share of consumption. 

 Within horticultural products, vegetables and melons continue to rank first in farm sales value over 

both fruits and nuts and greenhouse and nursery crops. Annual growth over the next 10 years is 

expected to be fastest for fruits and tree nuts, at 2.6 percent, followed by vegetables at 2.0 percent, 

and nursery crops at 1.6 percent. 

 The volume of farm production of horticultural crops is projected to rise annually at 0.4 percent. 

Total vegetable production volume is projected to expand at 0.6 percent annually and fruit 

production is forecast to decline on average by 0.1 percent in the next decade. The gradual 

increases in U.S. vegetable production volume hold gains in producer prices for vegetables at an 

annual 1.3 percent rate through the next decade. Combined with average price increases of 2.7 

percent for fruits and nuts, farm produce prices are estimated to increase by 1.9 percent annually in 

the projection period. 

 The average growth of U.S. horticultural import value is forecast at 3.7 percent from fiscal year (FY) 

2009 to 2018. The value of exports is forecast to grow at 3 percent, with both fruits and vegetables 

averaging 2.8 percent in the next 10 years. Import growth and export growth of fresh-market 

vegetables and fruits exceed that of their processed products. The U.S. trade deficit in horticulture 

crops and products increases from $14 billion in FY 2008 to more than $21 billion in FY 2018. Of 

the total $28 billion U.S. exports of horticultural products in FY 2018, fruits and nuts contribute 

$12.8 billion and vegetables represent $6.5 billion. Total imports of $50.5 billion in FY 2018 

include $16 billion worth of fruits and nuts, and $12 billion of vegetables and vegetable products. 

 Imports will increasingly supplement the domestic supply of horticulture crops and products. The 

share of imports in U.S. consumption of horticulture crops and products (based on dollar value) is 

projected to climb from 48 percent in 2008 to 54 percent by FY 2018. Horticultural exports are 

projected to increase their share of U.S. production value from 36 percent in FY 2008 to 39 percent 

in FY 2018. The import and export shares of fruits and nuts are about twice as large as the 

corresponding import and export shares of vegetables. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Value of horticultural trade

Billion dollars

Imports

Exports

Fiscal year
30 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 5. Conservation Reserve Program acreage assumptions

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million acres

Corn 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7

Sorghum 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

Barley 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Oats 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Wheat 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2

Upland cotton 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

Soybeans 5.8 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5

Subtotal 24.8 23.5 23.0 21.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.6 21.6

Other 12.0 11.3 11.0 10.3 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4

Total 36.8 34.8 34.0 31.9 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.5 31.4 31.9 32.0 32.0

Crop allocation

Table 4. Summary policy variables for major field crops, 2008-2018

Target price

 2008-2009 2010-2018 2008-2009 2010-2018 2008-2009 2010-2018

Dollars 1

Corn 0.28 1.95 1.95 2.63 2.63 2.35 2.35

Sorghum 0.35 1.95 1.95 2.57 2.63 2.22 2.28

Barley 0.24 1.85 1.95 2.24 2.63 2.00 2.39

Oats 0.024 1.33 1.39 1.44 1.79 1.416 1.766

Wheat 0.52 2.75 2.94 3.92 4.17 3.40 3.65

Rice 2.35 6.50 6.50 10.50 10.50 8.15 8.15

Upland cotton 0.0667 0.52 0.52 0.7125 0.7125 0.6458 0.6458

Soybeans 0.44 5.00 5.00 5.80 6.00 5.36 5.56

1/ Units are dollars per bushel except for upland cotton (per pound) and rice (per hundredweight). 

Direct payment 

rate

Marketing assistance 

loan rate Counter-cyclical trigger
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 31

Table 6. Planted and harvested acreage for major field crops, long-term projections

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million acres

Planted acreage, eight major crops

Corn 93.6 85.9 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.5 90.5 90.5

Sorghum 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3

Barley 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Oats 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

Wheat 60.4 63.0 60.5 60.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 60.0 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.5

Rice 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

Upland cotton 10.5 9.2 8.4 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3

Soybeans 64.7 75.9 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.5 71.5 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0

 Total 247.5 252.6 249.2 249.3 250.5 249.6 249.3 248.8 248.4 249.0 249.1 249.1

Harvested acreage, eight major crops

Corn 86.5 78.2 80.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 83.3 83.3 83.3

Sorghum 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3

Barley 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Oats 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Wheat 51.0 55.7 51.4 51.4 51.9 51.4 51.0 51.0 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.6

Rice 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1

Upland cotton 10.2 7.6 7.6 7.9 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3

Soybeans 64.1 74.4 73.0 72.1 71.1 70.6 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1

 Total 226.3 231.4 227.6 227.8 229.0 228.0 227.7 227.2 226.9 227.6 227.7 227.7
32 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 7. Selected supply, use, and price variables for major field crops, long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Yields1

Corn 153.8 157.0 151.1 159.0 161.0 163.0 165.0 167.0 169.0 171.0 173.0 175.0 

Sorghum 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 74.2

Barley 63.6 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.4 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.8 70.4 71.0 60.4

Oats 63.5 63.5 63.9 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8 60.9

Wheat 44.9 43.0 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.7 40.5

Rice 6,959 7,138 7,209 7,185 7,281 7,353 7,414 7,481 7,548 7,603 7,664 7,725 

Upland cotton 827 850 865 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950 864

Soybeans 39.3 42.6 43.0 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.8 45.2 45.6 46.1 41.7 46.5 

Production2

Corn 12,020 13,074 12,685 13,005 13,330 13,495 13,660 13,830 13,995 14,245 14,410 14,580 

Sorghum 465 435 420 420 415 415 410 410 410 410 405 505

Barley 239 230 230 235 235 240 240 240 245 245 250 212

Oats 89 95 95 95 95 100 100 100 100 100 100 92

Wheat 2,500 2,210 2,225 2,067 2,265 2,255 2,255 2,270 2,265 2,280 2,295 2,310 

Rice 203.5 213.0 197.5 215.1 217.3 219.4 224.9 227.0 229.0 234.4 236.3 238.2 

Upland cotton 18,355 13,069 13,500 14,200 15,800 16,100 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 18,000 18,400 

Soybeans 2,921 3,110 3,100 2,676 3,095 3,100 3,130 3,140 3,170 3,195 3,230 3,260 

Exports2

Corn 1,900 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,436 2,075 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,175 2,200 2,225 

Sorghum 140 140 140 145 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 278

Barley 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 41

Oats 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Wheat 1,000 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,264 1,050 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 

Rice 107.0 109.0 107.9 111.5 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 124.5 127.0 129.0 

Upland cotton 12,820 12,500 10,800 10,500 11,000 11,700 12,200 12,700 13,200 13,600 14,000 14,400 

Soybeans 1,020 1,175 1,200 1,200 1,161 1,180 1,180 1,175 1,175 1,180 1,190 1,200 

Soybean meal 9,200 8,600 8,400 8,500 8,700 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 

Ending stocks2

Corn 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,624 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 1,589 

Sorghum 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 53

Barley 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 83 68

Oats 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 59 67

Wheat 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 620 306

Rice 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 30.2 29.4

Upland cotton 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 5,437 

Soybeans 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 205 238 

Prices3

Corn 4.20 4.40 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

Sorghum 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35

Barley 4.02 5.00 4.30 4.15 4.00 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95

Oats 2.63 2.90 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35

Wheat 6.48 6.85 5.75 5.60 5.50 5.35 5.30 5.40 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45

Rice 12.80 15.00 12.50 11.45 10.90 10.60 10.80 11.03 11.27 11.52 11.78 12.04

Upland cotton 0.593 0.500 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.605 0.610 0.615 0.620 0.625 0.630 0.635

Soybeans 10.10 9.85 8.85 8.75 8.75 8.70 8.60 8.70 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.80

Soybean oil 0.520 0.395 0.350 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345

Soybean meal 335.9 285.0 260.0 255.0 252.5 251.0 246.0 249.0 250.5 250.5 250.5 252.0

1/ Bushels per acre except for upland cotton and rice (pounds per acre).

2/ Million bushels except for upland cotton (thousand bales), rice (million hundredweight), and soybean meal (thousand tons).

3/ Dollars per bushel except for upland cotton and soybean oil (per pound), rice (per hundredweight), and soybean meal (per ton).
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 33

Table 8. U.S. corn long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 93.6 85.9 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.5 90.5 90.5

 Harvested acres 86.5 78.2 80.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 83.3 83.3 83.3

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 151.1 153.8 157.0 159.0 161.0 163.0 165.0 167.0 169.0 171.0 173.0 175.0

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 1,304 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514

 Production 13,074 12,020 12,685 13,005 13,330 13,495 13,660 13,830 13,995 14,245 14,410 14,580

 Imports 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

 Supply 14,398 13,659 13,824 14,024 14,374 14,684 14,949 15,174 15,354 15,599 15,849 16,109

 Feed & residual 5,974 5,300 5,300 5,350 5,400 5,450 5,525 5,600 5,675 5,725 5,775 5,850

 Food, seed, & industrial 4,364 5,335 5,520 5,620 5,750 5,885 5,995 6,105 6,190 6,275 6,360 6,445

 Ethanol for fuel 3,026 4,000 4,200 4,300 4,425 4,550 4,650 4,750 4,825 4,900 4,975 5,050

 Domestic use 10,338 10,635 10,820 10,970 11,150 11,335 11,520 11,705 11,865 12,000 12,135 12,295

 Exports 2,436 1,900 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,075 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,175 2,200 2,225

 Total use 12,774 12,535 12,820 12,995 13,200 13,410 13,620 13,830 14,015 14,175 14,335 14,520

 Ending stocks 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 1,589

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 12.7 9.0 7.8 7.9 8.9 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.0 10.6 10.9

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 4.20 4.40 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 226 301 308 305 309 312 316 319 322 326 330 334

 Per bushel 1.50 1.95 1.96 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 408 376 320 315 303 291 287 299 311 315 319 323

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn.
34 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 9. U.S. sorghum long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3

 Harvested acres 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 74.2 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 32 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63

 Production 505 465 435 420 420 415 415 410 410 410 410 405

 Imports 000000000000

 Supply 537 518 503 488 488 483 478 473 473 473 473 468

 Feed & residual 172 240 225 210 205 200 185 170 160 150 140 125

 Food, seed, & industrial 35 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

 Domestic 207 310 295 280 275 270 255 240 230 220 210 195

 Exports 278 140 140 140 145 150 160 170 180 190 200 210

 Total use 484 450 435 420 420 420 415 410 410 410 410 405

 Ending stocks 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 63

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 11.0 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.2 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.6

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35

 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 132 166 159 160 163 166 168 170 172 174 177 179

 Per bushel 1.77 2.64 2.48 2.50 2.55 2.59 2.62 2.65 2.69 2.73 2.76 2.80

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 171 73 65 61 54 46 40 41 42 40 38 35

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 35

Table 10. U.S. barley long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

 Harvested acres 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 60.4 63.6 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.4 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.8 70.4 71.0

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 69 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81

 Production 212 239 230 230 235 235 240 240 240 245 245 250

 Imports 32 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

 Supply 312 333 323 323 327 331 335 339 342 345 348 356

 Feed & residual 34 80 70 70 70 75 75 75 80 80 80 85

 Food, seed, & industrial 168 160 160 161 161 161 161 162 162 162 162 163

 Domestic 203 240 230 231 231 236 236 237 242 242 242 248

 Exports 41 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

 Total use 244 265 255 256 256 261 261 262 267 267 267 273

 Ending stocks 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 83

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 27.9 25.7 26.7 26.2 27.7 26.8 28.4 29.4 28.1 29.2 30.3 30.4

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 4.02 5.00 4.30 4.15 4.00 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95

 Loan rate 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 111 141 141 141 143 145 147 149 150 152 154 156

 Per bushel 1.84 2.22 2.15 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 2.20

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 132 177 141 134 124 118 115 119 123 123 124 124

Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for barley. 
36 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 11. U.S. oats long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

 Harvested acres 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 60.9 63.5 63.5 63.9 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 51 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60

 Production 92 89 95 95 95 95 100 100 100 100 100 100

 Imports 123 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 Supply 265 260 257 259 260 261 262 262 262 262 261 260

 Feed & residual 121 120 115 115 115 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

 Food, seed, & industrial 75 75 75 76 76 76 77 77 77 78 78 78

 Domestic 196 195 190 191 191 196 197 197 197 198 198 198

 Exports 333333333333

 Total use 199 198 193 194 194 199 200 200 200 201 201 201

 Ending stocks 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 59

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 33.7 31.3 33.2 33.5 34.0 31.2 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.3 29.9 29.4

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 2.63 2.90 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35

 Loan rate 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 82 106 107 107 109 110 112 113 114 116 118 119

 Per bushel 1.34 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.69 1.70 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.76 1.77 1.79

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 78 78 52 50 45 42 38 40 40 39 39 38

Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for oats.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 37

Table 12. U.S. wheat long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 60.4 63.0 60.5 60.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 60.0 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.5

 Harvested acres 51.0 55.7 51.4 51.4 51.9 51.4 51.0 51.0 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.6

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 40.5 44.9 43.0 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.7

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 456 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611

 Production 2,067 2,500 2,210 2,225 2,265 2,255 2,255 2,270 2,265 2,280 2,295 2,310

 Imports 113 100 100 105 105 110 110 115 115 120 120 125

 Supply 2,635 2,905 2,913 2,946 2,990 3,005 3,012 3,030 3,020 3,021 3,028 3,046

 Food 948 960 965 974 983 992 1,001 1,010 1,019 1,028 1,037 1,046

 Seed 88 82 82 82 82 81 81 80 80 80 80 80

 Feed & residual 30 260 250 245 235 235 235 225 225 225 225 225

 Domestic 1,066 1,302 1,297 1,301 1,300 1,308 1,317 1,315 1,324 1,333 1,342 1,351

 Exports 1,264 1,000 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075

 Total use 2,330 2,302 2,297 2,326 2,350 2,358 2,367 2,390 2,399 2,408 2,417 2,426

 Ending stocks 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 620

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 13.1 26.2 26.8 26.7 27.2 27.4 27.2 26.8 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.6

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 6.48 6.85 5.75 5.60 5.50 5.35 5.30 5.40 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45

 Loan rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 97 133 141 125 127 129 130 132 134 135 137 139

 Per bushel 2.39 2.97 3.28 2.89 2.91 2.93 2.95 2.96 2.98 3.00 3.02 3.04

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 166 185 111 118 113 106 104 108 111 110 110 110

Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for wheat. 
38 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 13. U.S. soybean and products long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Soybeans

Area (million acres):

 Planted 64.7 75.9 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.5 71.5 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0

 Harvested 64.1 74.4 73.0 72.1 71.1 70.6 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1

Yield/harvested acre (bushels) 41.7 39.3 42.6 43.0 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.8 45.2 45.6 46.1 46.5

Supply (million bushels)

 Beginning stocks, September 1 574 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237

 Production 2,676 2,921 3,110 3,100 3,095 3,100 3,130 3,140 3,170 3,195 3,230 3,260

 Imports 10 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

 Total supply 3,260 3,133 3,320 3,362 3,361 3,351 3,370 3,380 3,404 3,432 3,470 3,502

Disposition (million bushels)

 Crush 1,801 1,745 1,720 1,735 1,750 1,770 1,790 1,810 1,830 1,850 1,875 1,895

 Seed and residual 92 162 168 166 165 166 166 166 167 167 168 169

 Exports 1,161 1,020 1,175 1,200 1,200 1,180 1,180 1,175 1,175 1,180 1,190 1,200

 Total disposition 3,055 2,928 3,063 3,101 3,115 3,116 3,136 3,151 3,172 3,197 3,233 3,264

Carryover stocks, August 31

 Total ending stocks 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 238

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 6.7 7.0 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.3

Prices (dollars per bushel)

 Loan rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00

 Soybean price, farm 10.10 9.85 8.85 8.75 8.75 8.70 8.60 8.70 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.80

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 105 130 132 132 134 135 136 138 139 140 141 143

 Per bushel 2.51 3.32 3.10 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 316 257 245 244 247 247 245 252 257 259 262 266

Soybean oil (million pounds)

 Beginning stocks, October 1 3,085 2,471 2,016 1,786 1,801 1,816 1,886 1,916 1,951 1,941 1,916 1,881

 Production 20,568 19,895 19,610 19,795 19,985 20,230 20,480 20,725 20,970 21,220 21,525 21,775

 Imports 65 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

 Total supply 23,718 22,416 21,686 21,651 21,866 22,136 22,466 22,751 23,041 23,291 23,581 23,806

 Domestic disappearance 18,272 18,100 18,000 18,100 18,350 18,550 18,750 18,950 19,150 19,375 19,600 19,850

 For methyl ester1 2,983 3,100 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300

 Exports 2,975 2,300 1,900 1,750 1,700 1,700 1,800 1,850 1,950 2,000 2,100 2,100

 Total demand 21,247 20,400 19,900 19,850 20,050 20,250 20,550 20,800 21,100 21,375 21,700 21,950

 Ending stocks, September 30 2,471 2,016 1,786 1,801 1,816 1,886 1,916 1,951 1,941 1,916 1,881 1,856

 Soybean oil price (dollars per lb) 0.520 0.395 0.350 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345

Soybean meal (thousand short tons)

 Beginning stocks, October 1 346 294 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

 Production 42,242 41,491 40,935 41,235 41,635 42,085 42,585 43,085 43,585 44,085 44,585 45,085

 Imports 140 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165

 Total supply 42,728 41,950 41,400 41,700 42,100 42,550 43,050 43,550 44,050 44,550 45,050 45,550

 Domestic disappearance 33,234 33,050 32,700 32,900 33,100 33,500 34,000 34,500 35,000 35,500 36,000 36,500

 Exports 9,200 8,600 8,400 8,500 8,700 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750

 Total demand 42,434 41,650 41,100 41,400 41,800 42,250 42,750 43,250 43,750 44,250 44,750 45,250

 Ending stocks, September 30 294 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

 Soybean meal price (dollars per ton) 335.94 285.00 260.00 255.00 252.50 251.00 246.00 249.00 250.50 250.50 250.50 252.00

 Crushing yields (pounds per bushel)

 Soybean oil 11.42 11.40 11.40 11.41 11.42 11.43 11.44 11.45 11.46 11.47 11.48 11.49

 Soybean meal 46.90 47.56 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60

 Crush margin (dollars per bushel) 3.72 1.43 1.33 1.26 1.20 1.22 1.20 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.16

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 1/ Soybean oil used for methyl ester for production of biodiesel, history 

from the U.S. Department of Commerce. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 39

Table 14. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (thousand acres):

 Planted 2,940 3,000 2,761 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,050 3,050 3,050 3,100 3,100 3,100 

 Harvested 2,924 2,984 2,748 2,984 2,984 2,984 3,034 3,034 3,034 3,083 3,083 3,083 

Yields (pounds per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 7,185 6,959 7,138 7,209 7,281 7,353 7,414 7,481 7,548 7,603 7,664 7,725 

Supply and use (million hundredweight):

 Beginning stocks 39.3 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3

 Production 197.5 203.5 213.0 215.1 217.3 219.4 224.9 227.0 229.0 234.4 236.3 238.2

 Imports 23.9 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.3 29.3 30.3 31.3 32.4 33.6 34.8 36.0

 Total supply 260.7 258.4 264.8 270.3 274.6 277.6 283.0 287.7 291.4 297.6 302.3 305.4

 Domestic use and residual 123.3 126.0 127.9 129.8 131.7 133.7 135.7 137.7 139.8 141.9 144.0 146.2

 Exports 107.9 107.0 109.0 111.5 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 124.5 127.0 129.0

 Total use 231.2 233.0 236.9 241.3 245.7 249.7 253.7 257.7 261.8 266.4 271.0 275.2

 Ending stocks 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 30.2

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 12.7 10.9 11.8 12.0 11.8 11.2 11.6 11.6 11.3 11.7 11.5 11.0

Milling rate, percent 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5

Prices (dollars per hundredweight):

 World price 11.53 13.50 11.00 10.00 9.50 9.25 9.50 9.78 10.02 10.27 10.53 10.79

 Average market price 12.80 15.00 12.50 11.45 10.90 10.60 10.80 11.03 11.27 11.52 11.78 12.04

 Loan rate 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 414 511 497 499 507 514 520 527 533 540 547 554

 Per hundredweight 5.76 7.35 6.96 6.93 6.97 6.99 7.02 7.04 7.06 7.10 7.13 7.17

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 506 532 396 326 286 265 280 299 318 336 356 377

Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for rice. 
40 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 15. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 10.5 9.2 8.4 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3

 Harvested acres 10.2 7.6 7.6 7.9 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3

Yields (pounds per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 864 827 850 865 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950

Supply and use (thousand bales):

 Beginning stocks 9,338 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302

 Production 18,355 13,069 13,500 14,200 15,800 16,100 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 18,000 18,400

 Imports 6 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

 Supply 27,699 22,979 19,647 18,732 19,767 20,652 21,287 21,872 22,407 22,792 23,227 23,712

 Domestic use 4,573 4,365 4,315 4,265 4,215 4,165 4,115 4,065 4,015 3,965 3,915 3,865

 Exports 12,820 12,500 10,800 10,500 11,000 11,700 12,200 12,700 13,200 13,600 14,000 14,400

 Total use 17,393 16,865 15,115 14,765 15,215 15,865 16,315 16,765 17,215 17,565 17,915 18,265

 Ending stocks 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 5,437

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 56.9 36.4 29.9 26.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.8

Prices (dollars per pound):

 Farm price 0.593 0.500 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.605 0.610 0.615 0.620 0.625 0.630 0.635

 Loan rate 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 421 491 493 498 507 514 522 530 538 546 555 564

 Per pound 0.49 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns1 205 150 152 151 170 174 178 183 188 193 198 203

Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for upland cotton.

1/ Net returns include estimates of marketing loan benefits.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 41

Table 16. U.S. sugar long-term projections

Item Units 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Sugarbeets

 Planted area 1,000 acres 1,269 1,080 1,408 1,306 1,261 1,301 1,311 1,310 1,297 1,287 1,296 1,300

 Harvested area 1,000 acres 1,247 1,053 1,356 1,264 1,227 1,264 1,273 1,267 1,249 1,239 1,248 1,252

 Yield Tons/acre 25.6 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 

 Production Mil. s. tons 31.9 28.0 35.2 32.5 31.5 32.6 32.9 32.9 32.5 32.4 32.8 33.0 

Sugarcane

 Harvested area 1,000 acres 832 830 843 840 840 832 840 850 839 833 836 838

 Yield Tons/acre 35.1 34.7 34.3 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.9 35.0 35.1 

 Production Mil. s. tons 29.2 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 

Supply:

 Beginning stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,799 1,690 907 1,646 1,425 1,535 1,703 1,805 1,790 1,751 1,746 1,776

 Production 1,000 s. tons 8,150 7,681 9,139 8,794 8,701 8,894 9,032 9,113 9,066 9,076 9,205 9,308

 Beet sugar 1,000 s. tons 4,721 4,225 5,405 5,026 4,907 5,103 5,183 5,198 5,171 5,175 5,259 5,323

 Cane sugar 1,000 s. tons 3,429 3,456 3,734 3,768 3,794 3,792 3,849 3,916 3,895 3,902 3,946 3,986

 Total imports 1,000 s. tons 2,456 2,496 2,839 2,365 2,807 2,753 3,238 3,312 3,237 3,187 3,133 3,085

TRQ imports 1,000 s. tons 1,352 1,511 1,357 1,359 1,361 1,367 1,369 1,372 1,374 1,379 1,382 1,384

Other imports 1,000 s. tons 1,104 985 1,483 1,006 1,446 1,386 1,869 1,940 1,863 1,808 1,751 1,700

 Total supply 1,000 s. tons 12,405 11,867 12,886 12,805 12,933 13,183 13,973 14,230 14,094 14,015 14,085 14,169

Use:

 Exports 1,000 s. tons 203 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

 Domestic deliveries 1,000 s. tons 10,781 10,710 10,990 11,130 11,148 11,230 11,308 11,376 11,433 11,477 11,519 11,558

 Miscellaneous 1,000 s. tons -269 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Total use 1,000 s. tons 10,715 10,960 11,240 11,380 11,398 11,480 11,558 11,626 11,683 11,727 11,769 11,808

CCC surplus disbursements 1,000 s. tons 0 0 0 0 0 0 609 815 660 541 540 544

Ending stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,690 907 1,646 1,425 1,535 1,703 1,805 1,790 1,751 1,746 1,776 1,817

Raw sugar price:

New York (No. 16) Cents/lb. 23.34 25.66 23.67 22.67 22.15 21.53 21.32 21.31 21.30 21.30 21.30 21.29

Raw sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 18.00 18.00 18.25 18.50 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75

Beet sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 22.90 23.13 23.45 23.77 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09

Grower prices:

Sugarbeets Dol./ton 39.70 46.83 41.33 38.91 39.27 38.14 37.36 37.24 37.31 37.38 37.45 37.52

Sugarcane Dol./ton 29.25 31.35 31.77 31.13 30.82 30.48 30.39 30.48 30.60 30.73 30.85 30.96

CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
42 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 17. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years

Item Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Production area1

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 1,000 acres 10,928 10,707 10,906 10,917 10,955 10,994 11,035 11,076 11,120 11,165 11,211 11,259

Fruit and tree nuts 1,000 acres 3,908 3,897 3,895 3,894 3,893 3,893 3,893 3,894 3,894 3,896 3,898 3,900

Vegetables and melons 1,000 acres 7,020 6,810 7,011 7,023 7,061 7,101 7,141 7,183 7,225 7,269 7,313 7,359

Supply

Production, farm weight

Fruit and nuts Mil. lbs. 59,047 64,369 64,249 64,142 64,043 63,954 63,875 63,804 63,743 63,691 63,648 63,614

Citrus Mil. lbs. 20,934 25,994 25,604 25,220 24,842 24,469 24,102 23,741 23,384 23,034 22,688 22,348

Noncitrus Mil. lbs. 34,129 34,300 34,471 34,643 34,817 34,991 35,166 35,342 35,518 35,696 35,874 36,054

Tree nuts Mil. lbs. 3,984 4,076 4,174 4,278 4,385 4,495 4,607 4,722 4,840 4,961 5,085 5,212

Vegetables and melons Mil. lbs. 141,158 135,778 136,562 137,858 138,712 139,576 140,451 141,337 142,233 143,140 144,059 144,988

Fresh market2 Mil. lbs. 60,700 59,950 59,659 60,358 61,066 61,784 62,510 63,247 63,992 64,748 65,513 66,288

Processing3 Mil. lbs. 35,777 34,774 34,370 34,542 34,473 34,404 34,335 34,267 34,198 34,130 34,062 33,994

Potatoes Mil. lbs. 44,681 41,055 42,532 42,958 43,173 43,388 43,605 43,823 44,043 44,263 44,484 44,706

Pulses4 Mil. lbs. 4,535 4,550 4,641 4,734 4,828 4,925 5,024 5,124 5,227 5,331 5,438 5,546

Total fruit, nuts, vegetables Mil. lbs. 200,470 200,412 201,074 202,263 203,018 203,793 204,588 205,403 206,238 207,093 207,968 208,864

Imports

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 41,597 42,197 42,719 43,734 45,137 46,586 48,082 49,628 51,225 52,874 54,578 56,337

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 20,928 20,568 20,780 21,204 21,780 22,372 22,980 23,604 24,246 24,905 25,581 26,277

Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 18,456 19,196 19,446 19,932 20,649 21,393 22,163 22,961 23,787 24,644 25,531 26,450

Use

Exports

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 20,019 23,034 23,800 24,197 24,602 25,014 25,435 25,865 26,303 26,749 27,205 27,670

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 7,817 9,238 9,553 9,689 9,827 9,968 10,111 10,257 10,406 10,558 10,713 10,871

Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 10,552 11,927 12,285 12,481 12,681 12,884 13,090 13,299 13,512 13,728 13,948 14,171

Domestic use5

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 222,048 219,575 219,993 221,800 223,554 225,365 227,235 229,167 231,160 233,217 235,341 237,531

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 72,159 75,699 75,476 75,657 75,997 76,359 76,744 77,151 77,582 78,037 78,516 79,020

Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 149,062 143,048 143,723 145,309 146,681 148,085 149,524 150,998 152,508 154,056 155,642 157,267

Farm sales value6

Fruit and nuts $ Mil. 17,765 18,449 18,922 19,409 19,909 20,424 20,954 21,498 22,059 22,636 23,229 23,839

Citrus $ Mil. 2,292 2,304 2,315 2,327 2,338 2,350 2,362 2,374 2,385 2,397 2,409 2,421

Noncitrus $ Mil. 11,502 12,032 12,345 12,667 12,997 13,335 13,682 14,038 14,404 14,779 15,164 15,559

Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,971 4,114 4,262 4,415 4,574 4,739 4,910 5,086 5,270 5,459 5,656 5,859

Vegetables and melons $ Mil. 20,865 21,878 22,313 22,759 23,213 23,676 24,149 24,631 25,123 25,626 26,138 26,661

Fresh market2 $ Mil. 6,640 6,739 6,995 7,149 7,306 7,467 7,631 7,799 7,971 8,146 8,325 8,509

Processing3 $ Mil. 2,592 2,833 3,032 3,086 3,142 3,198 3,256 3,314 3,374 3,435 3,497 3,560

Potatoes $ Mil. 2,960 3,233 3,039 3,096 3,155 3,215 3,276 3,339 3,402 3,467 3,533 3,600

Pulses4 $ Mil. 878 966 898 923 948 973 999 1,026 1,054 1,083 1,112 1,142

Nursery and greenhouse7 $ Mil. 17,179 17,453 17,733 18,016 18,305 18,597 18,895 19,197 19,505 19,817 20,134 20,456

Total horticulture crops8 $ Mil. 56,387 58,362 59,553 60,771 62,017 63,291 64,593 65,926 67,289 68,683 70,109 71,567

Producer prices9

Fruit and tree nuts 2000=100 181.1 172.6 177.3 182.2 187.2 192.3 197.5 202.9 208.4 214.0 219.7 225.6

Citrus 2000=100 150.4 121.7 124.2 126.7 129.3 131.9 134.6 137.3 140.1 143.0 145.9 148.8

Noncitrus 2000=100 152.2 158.4 161.7 165.1 168.6 172.1 175.7 179.4 183.1 187.0 190.9 194.9

Tree nuts 2000=100 144.7 146.5 148.2 149.8 151.4 153.1 154.7 156.4 158.1 159.7 161.5 163.2

Vegetables and melons 2000=100 128.6 140.1 142.1 143.6 145.5 147.5 149.5 151.6 153.6 155.7 157.8 159.9

Fresh market 2000=100 110.1 113.1 118.0 119.2 120.4 121.6 122.9 124.1 125.4 126.6 127.9 129.2

Processing 2000=100 120.5 135.5 146.7 148.6 151.5 154.6 157.7 160.8 164.1 167.3 170.7 174.1

Potatoes 2000=100 147.8 175.7 159.4 160.8 163.1 165.3 167.6 170.0 172.4 174.8 177.2 179.7

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 2000=100 145.7 152.1 155.0 157.6 160.6 163.6 166.6 169.8 172.9 176.2 179.4 182.8

1/ Bearing acreage for fruit and nuts; harvested area for vegetables. 2/ Includes melons, sweet potatoes, fresh mushrooms, and California specialty vegetables. 3/ Major 

processing vegetables and agaricus mushrooms. 4/ Includes edible dry beans and peas, lentils, and other peas. 5/ Calculated by adding farm weight production to 

imports, then subtracting exports. Stocks are not accounted for. 6/ Farm cash receipts except for major fresh market and processing vegetables, which are from 

production values. 7/ Includes floral crops, greenhouse vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumbers, and colored peppers, and fruit/vegetable transplants. 8/ Includes 

honey, maple syrup, hops, mint oils, and coffee. 9/ Based on cash receipts of U.S. farmers relative to their farm weight production.

Data source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; Foreign Agricultural Service; Economic Research Service.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 43

Table 18. Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal years

Item Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exports

 Fruit and nuts

 Fresh fruits $ Mil. 3,010 3,574 3,999 4,093 4,189 4,287 4,388 4,491 4,596 4,703 4,813 4,925

 Citrus $ Mil. 668 856 1,194 1,199 1,202 1,205 1,207 1,208 1,208 1,207 1,205 1,202

 Noncitrus $ Mil. 2,342 2,718 2,805 2,894 2,987 3,083 3,181 3,283 3,388 3,497 3,608 3,724

 Processed fruits $ Mil. 2,013 2,355 2,414 2,474 2,536 2,599 2,664 2,731 2,799 2,869 2,941 3,014

 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,022 1,157 1,187 1,218 1,249 1,282 1,315 1,349 1,384 1,420 1,457 1,495

 Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,025 3,487 3,600 3,726 3,856 3,991 4,131 4,276 4,425 4,580 4,741 4,906

 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 8,048 9,415 10,013 10,293 10,581 10,878 11,183 11,497 11,820 12,153 12,494 12,846

 Vegetables

 Fresh $ Mil. 1,775 1,941 2,001 2,063 2,127 2,193 2,261 2,331 2,403 2,478 2,555 2,634

 Processed1 $ Mil. 2,387 3,015 3,093 3,174 3,256 3,341 3,428 3,517 3,608 3,702 3,798 3,897

 Total vegetables $ Mil. 4,162 4,956 5,094 5,237 5,383 5,534 5,689 5,848 6,012 6,180 6,353 6,531

 Other horticulture

 Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 357 373 381 389 398 406 414 423 432 441 450 460

 Essential oils $ Mil. 1,142 1,278 1,318 1,359 1,401 1,444 1,489 1,535 1,583 1,632 1,682 1,734

 Wine $ Mil. 906 966 1,005 1,045 1,087 1,130 1,175 1,222 1,271 1,322 1,375 1,430

 Beer $ Mil. 232 266 267 268 270 271 272 274 275 277 278 279

 Other2 $ Mil. 3,173 3,541 3,422 3,549 3,680 3,816 3,958 4,104 4,256 4,413 4,577 4,746

Total horticulture $ Mil. 18,020 20,795 21,500 22,140 22,799 23,479 24,180 24,903 25,649 26,417 27,209 28,027

Fresh3 $ Mil. 4,786 5,515 6,000 6,156 6,316 6,480 6,649 6,822 6,999 7,181 7,368 7,559

Processed3 $ Mil. 4,399 5,370 5,600 5,734 5,872 6,013 6,157 6,305 6,456 6,611 6,770 6,932

Export share of production4 Percent 32 36 36 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 39 39

Imports

 Fruit and nuts

 Fresh fruits $ Mil. 5,401 5,544 5,600 5,824 6,057 6,299 6,551 6,813 7,086 7,369 7,664 7,971

 Citrus $ Mil. 499 417 288 321 356 393 432 474 518 565 615 668

 Noncitrus $ Mil. 4,903 5,127 5,312 5,503 5,701 5,906 6,119 6,339 6,567 6,804 7,049 7,303

 Processed fruits $ Mil. 3,416 3,984 4,400 4,572 4,750 4,935 5,128 5,328 5,535 5,751 5,976 6,209

 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,616 1,935 2,000 2,074 2,151 2,230 2,313 2,398 2,487 2,579 2,675 2,774

 Tree nuts $ Mil. 1,078 1,277 1,400 1,457 1,517 1,579 1,644 1,712 1,782 1,855 1,931 2,010

 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 9,896 10,805 11,400 11,853 12,324 12,814 13,323 13,852 14,403 14,975 15,570 16,189

 Vegetables

 Fresh $ Mil. 4,165 4,442 4,500 4,698 4,905 5,121 5,346 5,581 5,827 6,083 6,351 6,630

 Processed1 $ Mil. 3,149 3,520 3,700 3,841 3,987 4,138 4,295 4,458 4,628 4,804 4,986 5,176

 Total vegetables $ Mil. 7,314 7,962 8,200 8,539 8,891 9,259 9,641 10,040 10,455 10,887 11,337 11,806

 Other horticulture

 Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 1,531 1,514 1,500 1,541 1,582 1,625 1,669 1,714 1,760 1,808 1,856 1,906

 Essential oils $ Mil. 2,431 2,653 2,800 2,864 2,930 2,998 3,067 3,137 3,209 3,283 3,359 3,436

 Wine $ Mil. 4,543 4,755 4,800 4,987 5,182 5,384 5,594 5,812 6,039 6,274 6,519 6,773

 Beer $ Mil. 3,686 3,662 3,600 3,701 3,804 3,911 4,020 4,133 4,249 4,368 4,490 4,616

 Other2 $ Mil. 2,985 3,360 3,494 3,634 3,779 3,931 4,088 4,251 4,421 4,598 4,782 4,974

Total horticulture $ Mil. 32,386 34,712 35,794 37,119 38,493 39,920 41,401 42,939 44,535 46,193 47,913 49,700

Fresh3 $ Mil. 9,567 9,986 10,100 10,522 10,962 11,420 11,897 12,394 12,912 13,452 14,015 14,601

Processed3 $ Mil. 6,565 7,505 8,100 8,412 8,736 9,073 9,423 9,786 10,163 10,555 10,962 11,384

Import share of domestic use4 Percent 46 48 49 49 50 50 51 51 52 52 53 54

1/ Includes dry edible beans, peas, lentils, and potatoes. 2/ Includes hops, ginseng, sauces, condiments, mixed food, yeast, starches, etc. that contain horticulture 

ingredients. 3/ Includes fruits and vegetables only. 4/ Percent shares are based on values.

Exports are free alongside ship (FAS) value at U.S. port of exportation. Imports are customs value at U.S. port of entry.

Data source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.