0

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.

U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration

Current Population Projections: Population Projections

Population Reports States, 1995 – 2025

By Paul Campbell

C E N S U S B U R E A U P25-1131

Issued May 1997

How will states’ populations

change in the future? All states

will have more people (especially i

the South and West) and more

elderly as Baby Boomers age.

This report identifies population

changes that are projected to affect

the 50 states and the District of

Columbia during the years 1995 to

2025. These projections are used 

the basic input to many federal,

state, and local projection models

that produce detailed statistics on

education, economic factors, labor

force, health care, voting, and so

forth. The results are useful to

planners in both the public and

private sectors.

n

as

Basic assumptions for state

population projections

Population. State projections 

are consistent with the national 

population projections.

Births. State trends in age-raceHispanic-specific fertility rates for

states parallel projected national

trends.

Deaths. State trends in age-sexrace-Hispanic-specific survival rates

for states parallel projected national

trends.

Net international migration. 

820,000 annually, distributed by 

State, based on net international

migration rates derived from 1990

census data for foreign-born persons

who immigrated during the 1985-

1990 period.

Net internal migration. Based on 

a time-series model using estimates

of state-to-state migration for the

1975-94 period; the first 5 projection

years use the time-series projections

exclusively, the next 10 projection

years interpolate toward the 1975-

94 average of the time series, and 

the last 15 years use that average 

exclusively.

(For detailed discussions of the 

assumptions and methodology used

 to develop population projections, see

the report cited on p. 6.)

CA

TX

FL

GA

WA

AZ

NC

VA

NY

NJ

IL

CO

TN

MD

OR

States with the largest projected net increase in

population: 1995 to 2025

Millions

Figure 1.

Most of the Increase is in the South and West

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

0 10 20 30 40 50 6

CA

NM

HI

AZ

NV

ID

UT

AK

FL

TX

WY

WA

OR

CO

GA

NC

MT

VA

TN

SC

NH

MD

OK

AR

AL

KS

NJ

DE

MN

SD

LA

DC

NE

MO

MS

VT

RI

ME

WI

CT

ND

MA

IL

IN

KY

NY

IA

MI

OH

PA

WV

States ranked by percent change in

Figure 2.

Fastest-Growing States

Percent change

population: 1995 to 2025
2 P25–1131

More people in the South 

and West

Over the next three decades, net

population change (births minus

deaths plus net migration) will be

most evident in three states —

California, Texas, and Florida —

each of which will gain more than 

6 million persons (see Figure 1 on

page 1). They will account for 45

percent of the net population change

in the United States. No other state

will gain more than 2.7 million

persons. In fact, the 12 States that

will add between 1.0 million and 2.7

million people during this period will

account for only 30 percent of the

Nation’s growth.

California, the most populous state

with 12 percent of the Nation’s

population in 1995, is expected to

have 15 percent of the Nation’s

population by 2025. California’s

increase in population — 17.7 million

people — is nearly the current

population of New York State.

Besides natural increase, international migration is expected to

contribute to California’s rapid 

growth (Table 1).

The most populous states in the

South will continue to grow fairly

rapidly. During 1994, Texas replaced

New York as the second most

populous state and is expected to

remain in that position throughout

the projection period. Florida is

projected to replace New York as the

third most populous state by 2020.

Fastest growth in the West

The rate of population change

among the 50 states and the District

of Columbia will vary during the late

1990s. Nevada is expected to have

the most rapid growth (22 percent

from 1995 to 2000), with the District

of Columbia at the other end of the

continuum with a population loss of

6 percent. The most rapid rates of

change are projected for the

mountain states, with rates ranging

from 9 percent to 22 percent during

the 1995-2000 period. Georgia, with

a 9 percent rate of population

change, is the only other state

projected to grow this rapidly.

After 2000, the rate of population

change for most states will decline

substantially, assuming that national

projection trends and historical

trends in interstate migration

continue. (See methodology details births per 1,000 population in the

PPL-47.) In contrast, California is District of Columbia and California to

expected to grow faster after 2000, 10 births per 1,000 population in

resulting in the highest rate of West Virginia during the 30 years.

population change (52 percent) The variation in mortality is expected

during the 2000-2025 period; see to range from 13 deaths per 1,000

Figure 2 on page 1. During either population in West Virginia and the

period, the fastest growing states are District of Columbia to 5 deaths per

in the West. 1,000 population in Alaska.

State differences in fertility

and mortality to widen

Alaska, California, Utah, Texas, and

Hawaii (in rank order) are projected

to have the highest average annual

Between 1995 and 2025, the range rate of natural increase from 1995 to

of birth rates is expected to widen 2025, with rates ranging from 14

slightly, reflecting the concentration of down to 9 persons per 1,000 poprace and ethnic groups with high ulation. West Virginia and Arkansas

fertility rates in some states and are the only states expecting either

differential migration patterns. Fertility no gain or a loss from natural

is expected to range from 20 increase (see Figure 3 below).

DE

–2.9 to 1.4

1.5 to 2.4

2.5 to 3.4

3.5 to 4.5

4.6 to 14.1

Figure 3.

Projected Average Annual Rate of Natural

Increase Per 1,000 Population: 1995 to 2025

WA

OR

CA

NV

NM AZ

TX LA

ID

ND

SD

OK

KS

NE

WY

UT

CO

WI

MN

IA

IL IN OH

KY

TN

MO

AR

MS AL GA

SC

NC

WV VA

PA

NY

ME

AK

HI

MD

NJ CT

RI

MA

VT

NH

DC

MI

MT

FL

Percent

Source:

Population Division, PPL-47.

U.S. Bureau of the Census,

Net

In- Out- interstate

States migrants States migrants States migrants

DC 88 DC 98 Florida 8

Alaska 72 Alaska 76 Oregon 7

Wyoming 67 Wyoming 60 New Mexico 6

Nevada 60 Nevada 54 Nevada 6

New Mexico 54 Hawaii 49 Wyoming 6

Lowest rates...

Wisconsin 19 Ohio 22 California -4

Pennsylvania 18 Minnesota 21 Massachusetts -4

California 18 Michigan 21 Illinois -5

Michigan 17 Pennsylvania 19 New York -9

New York 15 Wisconsin 19 DC -10

Figure 4.

out-migrants, and net interstate migrants per 1,000 population

Americans on the Move

States with the highest and lowest rates of in-migrants,

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PE-45.

Highest rates...
Table 1. Total Population and Net Change for States: 1995 to 2025

[Thousands. Resident population]

Projections for July 1 July 1, 1995, to July 1, 2025

Components of change

Region, division, and state Net migration

Net Interstate

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 change Births Deaths migration Immigration

United States ............. 262,755 274,634 285,981 297,716 310,133 322,742 335,050 72,294 126,986 84,633 – 24,666

NORTHEAST .............. 51,466 52,107 52,767 53,692 54,836 56,103 57,392 5,927 21,585 16,537 (7,168) 6,830

New England ................ 13,312 13,581 13,843 14,172 14,546 14,938 15,321 2,009 5,448 4,096 (1,041) 1,338

Maine ...................... 1,241 1,259 1,285 1,323 1,362 1,396 1,423 181 437 402 86 20

New Hampshire................ 1,148 1,224 1,281 1,329 1,372 1,410 1,439 291 481 344 84 31

Vermont . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585 617 638 651 662 671 678 94 221 180 26 7

Massachusetts ................ 6,074 6,199 6,310 6,431 6,574 6,734 6,902 828 2,520 1,860 (815) 831

Rhode Island . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 990 998 1,012 1,038 1,070 1,105 1,141 151 423 318 (94) 113

Connecticut .................. 3,275 3,284 3,317 3,400 3,506 3,621 3,739 464 1,368 992 (329) 337

Middle Atlantic ............... 38,153 38,526 38,923 39,520 40,289 41,164 42,071 3,918 16,136 12,441 (6,127) 5,492

New York . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,136 18,146 18,250 18,530 18,916 19,359 19,830 1,694 8,117 5,598 (5,038) 3,886

New Jersey .................. 7,945 8,178 8,392 8,638 8,924 9,238 9,558 1,613 3,535 2,542 (747) 1,201

Pennsylvania ................. 12,072 12,202 12,281 12,352 12,449 12,567 12,683 611 4,484 4,301 (342) 405

MIDWEST ................ 61,804 63,502 64,825 65,915 67,024 68,114 69,109 7,305 26,334 19,534 (3,541) 2,365

East North Central ............ 43,456 44,419 45,151 45,764 46,410 47,063 47,675 4,219 18,512 13,557 (3,653) 1,839

Ohio ....................... 11,151 11,319 11,428 11,505 11,588 11,671 11,744 594 4,417 3,626 (758) 247

Indiana ..................... 5,803 6,045 6,215 6,318 6,404 6,481 6,546 742 2,377 1,879 (35) 110

Illinois ...................... 11,830 12,051 12,266 12,515 12,808 13,121 13,440 1,610 5,672 3,582 (1,699) 1,037

Michigan .................... 9,549 9,679 9,763 9,836 9,917 10,002 10,078 528 3,965 2,874 (1,122) 310

Wisconsin.................... 5,123 5,326 5,479 5,590 5,693 5,788 5,867 744 2,081 1,596 (39) 134

West North Central ............ 18,348 19,082 19,673 20,151 20,615 21,051 21,434 3,086 7,822 5,978 112 526

Minnesota ................... 4,610 4,830 5,005 5,147 5,283 5,406 5,510 900 1,993 1,349 (89) 190

Iowa ....................... 2,842 2,900 2,941 2,968 2,994 3,019 3,040 198 1,073 958 (97) 83

Missouri ..................... 5,324 5,540 5,718 5,864 6,005 6,137 6,250 927 2,260 1,858 255 105

North Dakota . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 641 662 677 690 704 717 729 88 270 214 (6) 13

South Dakota . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 729 777 810 826 840 853 866 137 341 246 6 6

Nebraska .................... 1,637 1,705 1,761 1,806 1,850 1,892 1,930 293 718 543 35 29

Kansas ..................... 2,565 2,668 2,761 2,849 2,939 3,026 3,108 543 1,167 810 7 102

SOUTH .................. 91,890 97,613 102,788 107,597 112,384 117,060 121,448 29,558 43,142 32,054 11,067 5,273

South Atlantic................ 46,995 50,147 52,921 55,457 57,966 60,411 62,675 15,680 20,682 16,883 6,707 3,790

Delaware . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 717 768 800 817 832 847 861 144 313 249 35 24

Maryland .................... 5,042 5,275 5,467 5,657 5,862 6,071 6,274 1,232 2,295 1,537 (251) 593

District of Columbia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554 523 529 560 594 625 655 101 334 213 (156) 135

Virginia ..................... 6,618 6,997 7,324 7,627 7,921 8,204 8,466 1,848 2,839 2,074 299 605

West Virginia ................. 1,828 1,841 1,849 1,851 1,851 1,850 1,845 17 555 715 105 14

North Carolina................. 7,195 7,777 8,227 8,552 8,840 9,111 9,349 2,154 3,039 2,612 1,295 199

South Carolina ................ 3,673 3,858 4,033 4,205 4,369 4,517 4,645 972 1,566 1,313 546 58

Georgia ..................... 7,201 7,875 8,413 8,824 9,200 9,552 9,869 2,669 3,571 2,340 953 306

Florida ...................... 14,166 15,233 16,279 17,363 18,497 19,634 20,710 6,544 6,169 5,829 3,879 1,856

East South Central............ 16,067 16,918 17,604 18,122 18,586 19,002 19,345 3,279 6,593 5,791 1,737 262

Kentucky .................... 3,860 3,995 4,098 4,170 4,231 4,281 4,314 454 1,439 1,344 175 67

Tennessee ................... 5,256 5,657 5,966 6,180 6,365 6,529 6,665 1,409 2,217 1,909 845 97

Alabama .................... 4,253 4,451 4,631 4,798 4,956 5,100 5,224 971 1,759 1,563 577 71

Mississippi ................... 2,697 2,816 2,908 2,974 3,035 3,093 3,142 445 1,179 975 140 27

West South Central............ 28,828 30,548 32,263 34,019 35,832 37,647 39,427 10,599 15,867 9,380 2,624 1,222

Arkansas .................... 2,484 2,631 2,750 2,840 2,922 2,997 3,055 572 1,000 979 436 31

Louisiana .................... 4,342 4,425 4,535 4,683 4,840 4,991 5,133 790 2,054 1,501 45 90

Oklahoma ................... 3,278 3,373 3,491 3,639 3,789 3,930 4,057 779 1,411 1,224 412 92

Texas ...................... 18,724 20,119 21,487 22,857 24,280 25,729 27,183 8,459 11,403 5,676 1,730 1,008

WEST ................... 57,596 61,413 65,603 70,512 75,889 81,465 87,101 29,505 35,925 16,508 (358) 10,198

Mountain................... 15,645 17,725 19,249 20,221 21,122 22,049 22,962 7,317 8,794 4,938 2,490 646

Montana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 870 950 1,006 1,040 1,069 1,097 1,121 251 374 316 143 13

Idaho....................... 1,163 1,347 1,480 1,557 1,622 1,683 1,739 576 627 379 257 33

Wyoming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 480 525 568 607 641 670 694 214 244 160 111 2

Colorado .................... 3,747 4,168 4,468 4,658 4,833 5,012 5,188 1,442 1,855 1,122 504 123

New Mexico .................. 1,685 1,860 2,016 2,155 2,300 2,454 2,612 927 1,030 526 403 12

Arizona ..................... 4,218 4,798 5,230 5,522 5,808 6,111 6,412 2,195 2,542 1,434 753 276

Utah ....................... 1,951 2,207 2,411 2,551 2,670 2,781 2,883 931 1,310 486 (31) 80

Nevada ..................... 1,530 1,871 2,070 2,131 2,179 2,241 2,312 782 813 516 351 106

Pacific .................... 41,951 43,687 46,354 50,291 54,768 59,416 64,139 22,188 27,130 11,570 (2,848) 9,553

Washington .................. 5,431 5,858 6,258 6,658 7,058 7,446 7,808 2,377 2,600 1,708 931 394

Oregon ..................... 3,141 3,397 3,613 3,803 3,992 4,177 4,349 1,209 1,364 1,169 712 197

California .................... 31,589 32,521 34,441 37,644 41,373 45,278 49,285 17,696 22,035 8,248 (4,429) 8,725

Alaska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 604 653 700 745 791 838 885 281 422 105 (84) 28

Hawaii ...................... 1,187 1,257 1,342 1,440 1,553 1,677 1,812 625 709 339 21 209

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.

P25-1131 3
Table 1. Total Population and Net Change for States: 1995 to 2025—Con.

[Thousands. Resident population]

July 1, 1995, to July 1, 2000 July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2005

Components of change Components of change

Region, division, and state Net migration Net migration

Interstate Interstate

Net change Births Deaths migration Immigration Net change Births Deaths migration Immigration

United States ................. 11,879 19,601 12,727 – 4,113 11,347 19,645 13,240 – 4,112

NORTHEAST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 641 3,585 2,749 (1,531) 1,106 660 3,407 2,747 (1,333) 1,119

New England . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268 898 669 (248) 220 263 853 674 (200) 221

Maine .......................... 18 76 64 (4) 3 26 72 64 8 3

New Hampshire .................... 76 78 50 37 5 57 76 53 23 5

Vermont ......................... 32 38 27 17 1 21 37 28 9 1

Massachusetts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 417 311 (148) 136 111 394 311 (138) 137

Rhode Island...................... 8 68 54 (30) 18 15 65 54 (20) 19

Connecticut....................... 10 222 163 (121) 55 33 209 165 (82) 56

Middle Atlantic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373 2,687 2,080 (1,283) 886 397 2,554 2,073 (1,133) 898

New York . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1,349 962 (1,069) 622 104 1,270 940 (921) 633

New Jersey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 566 412 (151) 198 214 548 418 (143) 199

Pennsylvania. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 772 706 (64) 66 79 737 716 (69) 66

MIDWEST .................... 1,698 4,363 3,089 (236) 395 1,323 4,307 3,154 (473) 393

East North Central . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 963 3,101 2,154 (461) 307 732 3,028 2,200 (565) 306

Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 763 571 (113) 41 109 738 588 (130) 41

Indiana. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 401 288 85 19 171 396 298 30 19

Illinois . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 913 591 (310) 175 216 895 592 (292) 174

Michigan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 684 456 (187) 51 84 656 467 (193) 51

Wisconsin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 340 248 64 22 153 342 255 20 22

West North Central . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 735 1,263 936 224 88 591 1,279 954 92 87

Minnesota. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 316 205 54 31 175 322 212 13 31

Iowa ........................... 58 184 155 - 13 41 182 156 (13) 13

Missouri . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 369 292 96 17 177 369 296 63 17

North Dakota...................... 20 43 33 4 2 16 44 34 - 2

South Dakota ..................... 48 54 38 27 1 32 57 39 9 1

Nebraska ........................ 68 115 84 24 5 56 118 86 12 5

Kansas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 183 128 18 17 93 187 130 7 17

SOUTH ...................... 5,723 6,708 4,547 2,347 894 5,175 6,780 4,855 2,049 885

South Atlantic .................... 3,151 3,254 2,384 1,454 617 2,774 3,256 2,566 1,251 619

Delaware ........................ 50 52 36 27 4 33 51 39 13 4

Maryland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232 364 229 (23) 97 193 357 242 (42) 98

District of Columbia ................. (31) 49 39 (65) 22 5 48 36 (30) 22

Virginia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379 458 291 85 100 327 447 314 66 100

West Virginia...................... 13 105 112 10 2 8 99 114 13 2

North Carolina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 582 489 354 382 33 450 490 390 281 33

South Carolina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 263 179 77 10 175 252 195 91 10

Georgia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 674 543 316 371 52 538 562 345 246 51

Florida .......................... 1,068 933 831 590 296 1,046 950 891 612 299

East South Central . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 852 1,110 849 485 44 686 1,094 888 369 44

Kentucky . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 254 201 56 11 104 245 208 39 11

Tennessee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401 357 271 278 16 308 361 289 197 16

Alabama. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 295 230 104 12 181 287 240 103 12

Mississippi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 205 146 46 4 93 200 151 30 4

West South Central ................ 1,720 2,344 1,315 408 234 1,716 2,430 1,401 429 222

Arkansas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 170 144 106 5 119 169 150 83 5

Louisiana ........................ 82 336 219 (65) 15 111 333 229 (21) 15

Oklahoma........................ 95 224 177 18 15 119 226 185 49 15

Texas........................... 1,395 1,613 775 350 199 1,368 1,703 837 318 187

WEST ....................... 3,816 4,945 2,342 (580) 1,718 4,190 5,151 2,484 (243) 1,716

Mountain ....................... 2,080 1,261 632 1,285 122 1,523 1,384 723 706 114

Montana......................... 79 58 42 57 2 57 63 47 34 2

Idaho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 90 48 131 6 133 103 55 75 6

Wyoming ........................ 44 35 20 27 1 43 39 22 24 1

Colorado . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422 274 140 253 24 299 293 161 134 22

New Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 144 70 94 5 156 156 77 73 4

Arizona . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 580 354 188 351 51 433 387 213 201 48

Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 190 60 106 14 204 211 69 42 13

Nevada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 116 64 266 19 199 132 78 123 18

Pacific......................... 1,736 3,684 1,710 (1,865) 1,596 2,666 3,767 1,761 (949) 1,601

Washington. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427 385 228 182 67 399 399 250 163 66

Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 208 155 156 34 216 216 172 124 33

California . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 932 2,937 1,268 (2,188) 1,459 1,920 2,987 1,274 (1,225) 1,465

Alaska .......................... 50 56 14 - 5 46 62 15 (7) 5

Hawaii .......................... 71 99 45 (15) 31 84 103 50 (4) 32

Note: Components do not include adjustments to bring the sum of the state projections by age, sex, and race into agreement with the national population projections. Thus, the net sum of the

components will not equal the net change in population. A dash (–) represents a value that equals zero, see U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.

4 P25-1131
P25–1131 5

While Americans frequently

move among the states...

Florida, Texas, and North Carolina

will each gain 1 million or more

persons over the 30-year period

through net interstate migration, with

Florida gaining nearly 4 million.

Georgia and Washington will each

gain slightly less than 1 million. Four

states will have a net loss of at least

1 million persons to other states.

New York will lose 5.0 million;

California, 4.4 million; Illinois, 

1.7 million; and Michigan, 1.1 million.

Over the 1995-2025 period, nearly

one-quarter billion people are

projected to move from one state 

to another.

Florida, Oregon, New Mexico,

Nevada, and Wyoming, (in rank

order) will have the highest average

annual net internal migration rates

from 1995 to 2025 (ranging from 8

persons to 6 persons per 1,000

population). Nearly two-fifths of the

50 states will have negative net

interstate migration during 1995 to

2025. The District of Columbia and

New York will each lose 10 and 9

persons per 1,000 population

respectively, to other states.

Clearly, the net interstate migration

for states is relatively small

compared with the total number of

people entering and leaving each

state over the 30-year period. For

example, the District of Columbia will

have the largest net loss, but it is

also expected to have the highest

in-migration flow — an average of

88 migrants per 1,000 population —

and the highest out-migration flow —

an average of 98 migrants per 1,000

population. New York expects the

lowest average annual rate of

in-migration (15 migrants per 1,000

population), while Wisconsin expects

the lowest average annual rate of

out-migration (19 migrants per 1,000

population); see Figure 4 on page 2.

...there are also many

immigrants coming to

America

California is projected to add the

largest number of international

migrants (more than 8 million). This

gain would be more than one-third of

the immigrants added to the Nation’s

population over the 30-year period. 

Other states projected to have gains

of 1 million or more from immigration

are New York, Florida, New Jersey,

Illinois, and Texas.

States with the highest rates of net

international migration (more than 5

people per 1,000 population) were

the District of Columbia, California,

New York, Hawaii, and New Jersey.

The lowest rates are expected for

Wyoming, New Mexico, South

Dakota, West Virginia, Mississippi,

and Arkansas (less than 0.4 persons

per 1,000 population); see Figure 5.

CA

NY

FL

NJ

IL

TX

MA

VA

MD

PA

States with the largest projected net 

Thousands

Figure 5.

Coming to America

3,886

1,856

1,201

1,037

1,008

831

593

605

405

increase in immigrants: 1995 to 2025

8,725

NY

RI

NY

Under 12

12

13 to 18

19 to 20

21 or more

Figure 6.

Percent of Total State Population 65 Years

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.

WA

OR

CA

NV

NM AZ

TX LA

ID

ND

SD

OK

KS

NE

WY

UT

CO

WI

MN

IA

IL IN OH

KY

TN

MO

AR

MS AL GA

SC

NC

WV VA

PA

ME

AK

HI

MD

DE

NJ CT

RI

MA

VT

NH

DC

MI

MT

FL

and Over: 1995 to 2025

Percent Elderly 1995

Percent Elderly 2025

U.S. 12.8

U.S. 18.5

WA

OR

CA

NV

NM AZ

TX LA

ID

ND

SD

OK

KS

NE

WY

UT

CO

WI

MN

IA

IL IN OH

KY

TN

MO

AR

MS AL GA

SC

NC

WV VA

PA

ME

AK

HI

MD

DE

NJ CT

MA

VT

NH

DC

MI

MT

FL

Percent
6 P25–1131

The proportion of youth

should drop...

The Nation’s young (newborns to

age 19) are projected to account for

a slightly smaller proportion of the

population — 27 percent in 2025

compared to 29 percent in 1995.

Most states will follow this trend, but

California, Hawaii, New York, Rhode

Island, and the District of Columbia

are expected to be exceptions.

Even though the West will have a

slight decline in the proportion of

youth, it will continue to lead all

regions with the greatest proportion

of population under 20 years of age,

while the South will have the

smallest. For example, in 2025,

Alaska will be the state with the

highest proportion of its population

under 20 years of age (34 percent),

followed by California (33 percent),

while West Virginia and Florida will

have the smallest proportion (both

with 21 percent).

...as the proportion of 

elderly increases

As the Baby-Boom generation (those

born between 1946 and 1964) starts

reaching retirement age in 2011, the

size of the elderly population (ages

65 and over) is projected to increase

in all states. Over the 30-year

period, California and Florida would

continue to rank first and second,

respectively, in having the largest

number of elderly. By 2025, Texas

will move up to rank third, passing

New York and Pennsylvania. In

contrast, before 2011, the number 

of elderly will remain about the 

same in most states.

In 1995, Florida had the largest

proportion of elderly (19 percent) 

of any state, and Alaska had the

smallest, at 5 percent (see Figure 6

on page 5). By 2025, Florida is

expected to remain the “oldest” state

with more than 26 percent of its

population age 65 or older. Alaska

will still rank as the “youngest” state

with 10 percent elderly. To further

illustrate the rapid growth in elderly

populations, only five states had at

least 15 percent of their population in

the elderly category in 1995. By

2025, that number is expected to

grow to 48 states. Only Alaska 

(10 percent), California (13 percent),

and the District of Columbia (14

percent) will not meet or exceed the

15 percent level. From a different

perspective, the number of elderly is

projected to at least double in 20

states between 1995 and 2025.

Contacts:

Statistical Information Staff

pop@census.gov 

301-457-2422

State Projections

Paul R. Campbell 

301-457-2428 

Paul.R.Campbell@

ccmail.census.gov

Methodology

State population projections were uses Series A, which is a time- U.S. Bureau of the Census, Popuderived using the cohort-compo- series model that uses state-to- lation Division, 105 pages. This

nent method. These projections state migration observed from report also identifies alternative

were prepared for the 50 states 1975-76 through 1993-94. Also sources of state population projecavailable in report PPL-47 and tions. and the District of Columbia by on the Internet is Series B, based age (single year of age — 0 to 84 B) Diskettes PE-45 (3-1/2 inch dis- on Bureau of Economic Analysis years, and 85+), sex, race, and kette ASCII files). A single (BEA) employment projections. Hispanic origin (non-Hispanic diskette with both Series A and B For a more thorough discussion White; non-Hispanic Black; non- for each state or the District of Co- of the methodology, see report Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo lumbia ($20 each state). The PPL-47 cited below. PE-45 diskettes (and Internet files, and Aleut; non-Hispanic Asian and

see below) contain the detailed Pacific Islander; Hispanic White; More Information state populations by single years Hispanic Black; Hispanic American

of age, sex, race, and Hispanic Indian, Eskimo and Aleut; and Detailed information such as origin. Also included are the Hispanic Asian and Pacific results, methodology, and components of population change Islander). Taking into account selected data tables is available (annual total—births, deaths, various assumptions, historical, from the Population Division’s state-to-state migrants, and 

and national trends for each year, Statistical Information Office — international migrants.) 301-457-2422 — in the following state populations change through formats: All of the above information the process of aging, adding births, (except for the detailed tables subtracting deaths, and movement A) Paper Product Listing PPL-47 in PPL-47) are available on from state-to-state, abroad, or to for $28.50. The author and title the Internet. The Internet user

another country. Two projection are: Campbell, Paul R., 1996, should go to the Census Bureau’s

series were calculated based on “Population Projections for States- website — http://www.cendifferent assumptions about state- by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic sus.gov/population/www/projecto-state migration. This report Origin: 1995 to 2025,” PPL-47, tions/stproj.html