National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozo

Final Regulatory Impact Analysis

Briefing for Interagency Workgroup

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

September 3, 2015
Outline

•Overview of Methodology•Analytical Structure of Final RIA

•Results for 2025 for everywhere in the U.S., e

California

•Results for postͲ2025 for California•Analyses Included from Proposal RIA

DRAFT DELIBERATIVE MATERIAL for INTERAGENCY REVIEWͲͲ

DO NOT DISTRIBUTE
Forecast Future Year Base Case 

Emissions & Air Quality

Estimate 2025 Baseline Air 

Quality

Estimate Air Quality and 

Emissions Reductions for 

Attainment of the Revised & 

Alternative NAAQS Levels

Calculate Costs Associated with 

Identified Control Strategies

Calculate Costs Associated 

with Identified and 

Unidentified Control 

Strategies

Estimate Total Costs

Conduct Benefits Analysis 

Associated with Identified Control 

Strategies

Conduct Benefits Analysis 

Associated with Identified 

and Unidentified Control 

Strategies

Estimate Total Benefits

EstablishBaseline

DRAFT DELIBERATIVE MATERIAL for INTERAGENCY REVIEWͲͲ

DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

Methodology of Overview
enil esaB 5202 –seul aV ngiseD enoz O detcej or P

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
AI Rl ani Ff o er utcurt Sl acityl anA

2025 of Year Future •

III, Tier MATS, CSAPR, incorporates baseline 2025 •

Po

Clean for adjustment as well as Haze, Regional

ppb 65 and 70 Analyzed •

Benefits and Costs •

California except U.S., the in everywhere for 2025 •

California for 2025 Ͳ Post •

emis

source mobile reflect to quality air baseline Adjusted •

California for reductions

o

2037/beginning of end the through occur costs Assumed •

populatio

projected using California for benefits Modeled •

2038 for demographics

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
AI Rl ani Ff o er utcurt Sl acityl anA

$15,000/ton used we controls, unidentified from costs estimate To •

only NOx for value primary

l

controls some that reflects and proposal with consistent is Value • $15,000/ton than more cost some and $15,000/ton than

c

higher slightly applied controls, identified from costs estimate To • proposal at than

V

and NOx both for measures control identified on data Reviewed •

values cutoff selecting for methodology transparent defined

identified through line trend exponential plotted controls, NOx For • $19,000/ton of value cutoff determined and curve

p

clear revealed curve cost control identified the controls, VOC For • $33,000/ton of value cutoff

ap

were and controls NOx than expensive more generally are controls VOC •

concent

ozone on effect greater had effectiveness relative where locations

$15,000

above values at applied actually are controls few Because •

estimates cost alter substantially don’t values cutoff higher

$10,400/ton was controls NOx for cost control Median •

less or $15,000/ton at applied controls NOx of 97% •

Analysis Benefits •

analysis sensitivity a in estimates productivity worker Added •

ast

in changes estimating for studies epidemiology of set Modified •

w/oz

associated admissions hospital respiratory and exacerbation

INTERAGEN

for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
AI Rl ani Ff o er utcurt Sl acityl anA

sensitivity emissions quality air additional Conducted •

runs modeling

all

that factors response ozone refined more Generated •

reduc

emissions effective and targeted more of analysis

areas geographic smaller across

times 3 to 2 were reductions emissions local Texas, East In •

equiv

the than concentrations ozone reducing at effective

proposal the in used reductions emissions regional

2.

to up were reductions emissions local Northeast, the In •

tha

concentrations ozone reducing at effective more times

prop

the in used reductions emissions regional equivalent

estimates benefit and cost refine to us Allowed •

modeling quality air case base 2025 Updated •

input

modeling inventories, emissions to Improvements •

an

gas, & oil EGU, including sectors, key for models and

onroad sources

DVs 2025 projected New •

R

INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
REVIEW– INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO

Proposal

Final

Mo

Sensitivity Emissions Quality Air Refined for Regions

Final and – Proposal

7
sVD enoz O detcej or P 5202 weN

w

areas are there proposal to compared ppb, 70 For •

DVs projected lower and higher

DV the dominate decreases DV large with areas Two •

changes

ppb >70 DVs with Dallas around counties fewer Two •

Da

around counties Texas in ppb 2.2 to up of Decreases •

Houston and

and NY County, Suffolk in ppb 1.5 to up of Decreases •

CT Fairfield,

Louisville, Denver, in observed were increases DV •

areas Pittsburgh and Sheboygan,

increas

are there proposal to compared ppb, 65 For •

dispe

more a across DVs projected in decreases and

seen decreases DV the and areas geographic of set

dominate longer no Northeast and Texas

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
AI Rl asopor P morfstl useR nisecner effi D

th

exceed to projected areas two were there RIA proposal the For •

excep

U.S. – for exceed to projected areas no are there final at and California

e

to projected areas of number similar a were there California, For • analyses final and proposal the both

an

lower ~50% are needed reductions NOx nationwide ppb, 70 For •

than lower 60% and 55% between are costs and benefits resulting proposal the for estimated

more concentrations ozone approach, modeling quality air new With • 

8

for accounts – this monitors some to closer emissions in changes todifference

inpu

and models in changes from results difference 20% of Remaining •

case base 2025 updated the generate

controls identified cost, lower of number greater a Applied •

re

lower, ~20% are needed reductions NOx nationwide ppb, 65 For • tha

higher slightly are costs resulting and lower, ~20% are benefits proposal the for estimated

propo

to similar are results California, for analysis 2025 Ͳ post the In • 

n

did DVs baseline and same the are inputs and methods because

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
tcudeRsnoissi mEf o yra mmuS –stl useR yget art Sl ort noC

5202, ai nr ofil aCt pecxe,. S. Ur of

Applied Controls Identified

SNCRs and SCRs EGUs

(commercial/resi

Burners NOx Low gas), & (oil Engines NSCR – IC Nonpoint

retrofits and rebuilds engine Diesel Nonroad

SCR and NOx burners Low Point EGU Ͳ Non

ppb 65 and 70 for Reductions Emissions

2025) in Thousand Tons/Yr (Annual

Baseline) to (Results Incremental

AQ

Level Pollutant

Identified

Control

Reductions

Unidentified

Control

Reductions

from %

Unidentifie

Controls

ͲͲ ͲͲ ͲͲ ͲͲ 75

70 NOx VOC 24020 470 17%0%

65 NOx VOC 550 110 8600 61%0%
5202, ai nr ofil aCt pecxe,. S. Ur ofstsoCl aunnAl at oT

) et aRt nuocsi D %7, $1102f osnoilli b(

b

to set data comprehensive a have not do We rate. discount 7% reflect costs Engineering *

rate. discount 3% a at costs engineering calculate

Baseline* to Results Incremental

Alternative

Standards

(ppb)

Total

Costs*

Identified

Costs Control

Unidentified

Control Costs

Pe

Unide

Contr

$1.4 $0.69 $0.70 5

70

65 $15.5 $2.6 $13 8
 5202 nistl useRstif eneB htl aeH

ai nr ofil aCt pecxe er ehwyr evet ne mni att af ostif eneb edi wnoit an(

70ppb 

Endpoint Health

160 4

to 96 term) Ͳ (short (all ages) avoided deaths premature related Ͳ Ozone

500 1,1

to term) 220 Ͳ (long 30+) avoided (age deaths premature related Ͳ PM

avoided effects health Other

99) Ͳ 18 (age attacks heart fatal Ͳ Non PM 

260 14

to 28

99) Ͳ 0 (age admissions hospital Respiratory O3+PM 

250

99) Ͳ 18 (age admissions hospital Cardiovascular PM 80 

18) Ͳ 0 (age visits department emergency Asthma O3+PM 630 

12) Ͳ 8 (age bronchitis Acute PM 340 

18) Ͳ 6 (age exacerbation Asthma O3+PM 230,000 

65) Ͳ 18 (age days work Lost PM 28,000 

65) Ͳ 18 (age days restricted activity Minor O3+PM 620,000 

(children) respiratory symptoms & lower Upper PM 11,000 

days loss School O3 160,000 

with combination in or alone, (either ozone from impacts reflect blue in estimates incidence Note,

and 70ppb of levels standard for 1700 340, mortality: respiratory attributable) Ͳ (Ozone term Long Ͳ

respectively.
 5202r ofstif eneB dnastsoC dezit eno Ml at oT

f osnoilli bͲ ai nr ofil aC gni dul cxe. S. U eht nit ne mni att af ostif eneb edi wnoit an(

) et art nuocsi d

p

ppb 65 70

$1.4 $15

Costs Total

to $5.9 $15 to $2.9 Benefits Health Total

t

$1.7 $5.3 to Ozone $1.0

t

$4.2 $9.3 to PM $1.9

$1.0 t

 Ͳ $4.5 to $1.5 Benefits Net

to $6.4 from ranged benefits and billion $3.9 were costs ppb 70 for proposal, At

billion. $38 to $19 from ranged benefits and billion $15 were costs ppb, 65 For

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
tcudeRsnoissi mEf o yra mmuS –stl useR yget art Sl ort noC

5202Ͳtsop, ai nr ofil aCr of

ppb 65 and 70 for Reductions Emissions

2025) Thousand Tons/Yr (Annual

Baseline) to (Results Incremental

Level Pollutant AQ Control Identified Reductions Unidentified Control Reductions 

75 NOx VOC 3255 1560 

70 NOx 0 51 65 NOx 0 100 

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
5202Ͳtsop, ai nr ofil aCr ofstsoCl aunnAl at oT

) et aRt nuocsi D %7, $1102f osnoilli b(

to set data comprehensive a have not do We rate. discount 7% reflect costs Engineering *

rate. discount 3% a at costs engineering calculate

Baseline* to Results Incremental

Alternative

Standards

(ppb)

Costs* Identified Total

Costs Control

Unidentified

Control Costs

U

Co

$0.80 0 $0.80 

7065 $1.5 0 $1.5 

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO

$1.6 were costs ppb, 65 for and billion $0.8 were costs ppb 70 for proposal, At
 5202Ͳtsopstl useRstif eneB htl aeH

) ai nr ofil aC nit ne mni att af ostif eneb edi wnoit an(

Endpoint 70ppb 

Health

120 

to 72 term) Ͳ (short (all ages) avoided deaths premature related Ͳ Ozone

98 

to term) 43 Ͳ (long 30+) avoided (age deaths premature related Ͳ PM

avoided effects health Other

99) Ͳ 18 (age attacks heart fatal Ͳ Non PM 

51 

to 6

99) Ͳ 0 (age admissions hospital Respiratory O3+PM 150 

99) Ͳ 18 (age admissions hospital Cardiovascular PM 16 

18) Ͳ 0 (age visits department emergency Asthma O3+PM 380 

12) Ͳ 8 (age bronchitis Acute PM 64 

18) Ͳ 6 (age exacerbation Asthma O3+PM 160,000 

65) Ͳ 18 (age days work Lost PM 5,300 

65) Ͳ 18 (age days restricted activity Minor O3+PM 360,000 

(children) respiratory symptoms & lower Upper PM 2,000 

days loss School O3 120,000 

combination in or alone, (either ozone from impacts reflect blue in estimates incidence Note,

a

70ppb of levels standard for 590 290, mortality: respiratory attributable) Ͳ (Ozone term Long Ͳ

respectively.

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
 5202Ͳtsopr ofstif eneB dnastsoC dezit eno Ml at oT

 %7, $1102f osnoilli bͲ ai nr ofil aC nit ne mni att af ostif eneb edi wnoit an(

ppb ppb 65 70

$0.8 $1.5 Costs Total

$

to $2.1 $2.3 to $1.2 Benefits Health Total

$2

to $1.3 $1.6 to Ozone $0.8

$1

to $0.8 $0.7 to PM $0.4

$

to $1.3 $0.8 to $0.4 Benefits Net

bill

$2 to $1.1 from ranged benefits and billion $0.8 were costs ppb 70 for proposal, At

billion. $4.1 to $2.2 from ranged benefits and billion $1.6 were costs ppb, 65 For

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO
AI Rl asopor P morf dedul cnIsesyl anA

Analysis EJ •

demographic Ͳ socio of analysis screening Limited •

monito

with areas in living populations of characteristics standards alternative and revised exceeding DVs

20

Ͳ (2012 data quality air current with analysis Updated •

Quality Air of Impacts Employment •

effects to related literature reviewed Ͳ peer of Discussion • employment on regulation environmental

installa

to related employment of discussion Qualitative •

generatin

electric fired Ͳ gas and Ͳ coal on controls NOx of plan

typical at kilns cement and boilers, industrial units,

benefits Ͳ co Welfare •

and forestry in yields in changes estimated proposal, For •

FASOMGHG using sectors agricultural

quantitative not but proposal, from discussion Included •

estimates

ͲͲ REVIEW INTERAGENCY for MATERIAL DELIBERATIVE DRAFT

DISTRIBUTE NOT DO