Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline: 

Recapitalizing American Education 

Partial Cost Estimates for 

Road Map for National Security

May 15, 2001 

U.S. Commission on 

National Security/21st Century

Prepared by: 

Dr. Lyntis H. Beard, Jr., Dr. Charles B. Johnson and Dr. Pat Pentland 

Study Group Members 

USCNS/21st Century 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline ii

Contents 

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii 

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 

USCNS/21 Recommendations on Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 

Public and Private School Student and Teacher Pipelines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 

The Science and Mathematics Teacher Pipeline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 

Modernizing Assessment Capability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 

Addressing the Science and Mathematics Teacher Shortage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 

Addressing Government Science and Math Personnel Shortages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 

Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 

Appendix A, Commission Science and Math Teacher Tabular Estimates . . . . . . . . 25 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline iii

Preface 

he National Security Study Group (NSSG) is a chartered entity that provides basic 

research and analytical support for the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st

Century (USCNS/21). The NSSG has issued documents through the medium of “Supporting 

Research” or “Addenda” associated with specific Commissioner reports. The NSSG staff prepared 

this supporting research document at the direction of the Commission. Education, particularly 

science and mathematics education, is crucial to national security and to our nation’s future. The 

Commission and Study Group considered it important to provide a cost estimate of the education 

reform recommendations in the Phase III report, Road Map for National Security: Imperative for 

Change. The pertinent recommendations are those in section IIB of the main Commissioner report, 

“Education as a National Security Imperative.” 

The full-time NSSG staff, a collection of national security scholars and practitioners, has 

prepared this report. The interpretation of the education statistics and data herein is that of the NSSG 

staff, and not that of the Commissioners. Moreover, this report informs a different audience than that 

of the original Phase III report; those concerned with the implementation requirements for the 

Commission’s recommendations. The report should also assist interested parties in further 

understanding the Commission’s recommendations. 

Stemming from the last distinction—the intended audience—this report offers more in-depth 

guidance to accountable authorities. A clear view of the current and near future state of the nation’s 

educational system is critical. Although a significant amount of information is available on the 

public and private school systems, the material is dispersed throughout many sources. Worse, it is 

not always suitable for the “operational” analyses required to target and solve the many problems 

faced by the nation’s educational system. For this reason many indirect estimates and assumptions 

were necessary in the preparation of this addendum. This report makes a strong effort to be very 

explicit and transparent in all its assumptions. The estimates are intended to be approximate. 

Detailed estimates are beyond the resources and time constraints faced by the Commission. 

Charles G. Boyd, General, USAF (Retired) 

Executive Director 

 USCNS/21 

T
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline iv
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 1

Executive Summary

his report provides cost estimates for several of the education recommendations made 

by the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (USCNS/21). The estimates 

are based on an evaluation of the public school teacher and student pipeline as projected by the U.S. 

Department of Education’s National Center of Education Statistics for the coming decade. These 

statistics indicate that significant hurdles will have to be overcome to address future education 

requirements. Key among these is the tremendous increase in teacher retirements that are projected 

by 2010. Today roughly 57,000 teachers retire per year; by 2010 that number will grow close to 

88,000. On average each year there will be 3,448 more teachers retiring than the year before. 

Upwards of two million new teachers will be needed over the next decade. In the areas of science 

and mathematics, the situation is even worse given the needs of today’s technology-oriented private 

sector where job opportunities are significantly more attractive than teaching in both compensation 

and working conditions. The National Commission on Mathematics and Science Teaching for the 

21st Century estimated that within the two million total new teachers, 240,000 new science and 

mathematics teachers are needed in the coming decade. Even with the required number of new 

teachers, critical shortfalls will likely exist in many rural and economically depressed urban areas. 

The second major problem faced by the education system is the insufficient number of 

students opting to enter science and technology fields, particularly in the pursuit of graduate 

education. A shortage of personnel with technical skills already exists today in government, in the 

military, and in industries critical to national security. In the absence of public policy remedies, this 

shortage is likely to grow worse. 

The cost estimates in this report address two problems; the science and mathematics teacher 

shortage, and the inducements necessary to encourage more students to pursue science and 

technology related fields. These include incentives needed to induce those majors who pursue 

science and technology careers to enter education, government, and military service. Various options 

are considered to include targeted salaries, scholarships, and loan forgiveness. Costs are 

approximated below and are meant to provide rough estimates adequate for the purpose of the 

Commission. 

Our low and high-end projections bracket the estimates of the National Commission on 

Mathematics and Science Teaching for the 21st Century (hereafter referred to as the Glenn 

Commission) on the need for 240,000 new science and mathematics teachers over the next decade. 

Adopting this conservative figure, the USCNS/21 supports the associated $174 million funding 

T
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

2 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

recommendation of the Glenn Commission to bring additional science and math teachers into the 

teaching profession. 

Beyond attracting new teachers, the Glenn Commission recommends providing other 

funding initiatives to improve teacher training and professional development. Including the 

aforementioned $174 million, they propose $5 billion in expenditures, $3 billion of which should 

be provided by the Federal government, and the rest provided by State/Local and the 

public/private sector. The USCNS/21 endorses these estimates. 

The USCNS/21 further recommends differential salary pay as a step to bring the salaries of 

public school secondary science and mathematics teachers to competitive levels. Currently, the 

average salary of an entering science and math professional in the private sector is $50,000. Using 

the current $25,000 starting teacher salary as a baseline, it would take about $6.4 billion annually to 

raise the salaries of all public secondary school science and mathematics teachers to a 

comparable level with the private sector. For comparison, an alternate proposal would reward the 

top quartile teachers to fully competitive salaries and second quartile teachers to a half salary 

differential increase. This would cost $2.4 billion annually. 

The need to recruit and retain science and technology personnel into government service 

must also be addressed. The USCNS/21 estimates that the four-year cost of reinvigorating 

government with needed undergraduate and graduate scientists using the National Security 

Science and Technology Education Act would amount to a total of $105 million. This would 

provide funds to attract 8,400 additional graduates into government service over four years. The 

annual cost from that four-year point forward would amount to approximately $41 million per year. 

The USCNS/21 considers this a reasonable price to help ensure our national security and national 

prosperity. 

he preparation of this report revealed several worrisome problems and deficiencies 

concerning U.S. Department of Education statistics. In turn, this generated the following 

recommendations: 

• The U.S. Department of Education, with the support of the Executive and Legislative Branches, 

needs to reassess how the nation’s school systems are evaluated, how statistics are gathered, and 

to what purpose. This is essential if scarce resources are to be properly targeted. 

• The U.S. Department of Education should devote greater analytical capability to develop new 

operational measures of effectiveness to address year-to-year local and regional educational 

T
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 3

problems as well as long-term deficiencies in the nation’s school system. This would entail a 

shift in its organizational culture and as well a significant increase and reallocation of 

resources. 

• Many current projections are based on dated education statistics, spanning a period of significant 

demographic change. Funds should be devoted to an Internet-based data collection system to 

provide data automatically from each school district across the nation to serve the statutory 

needs of Federal, State, and local governments.
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

4 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

USCNS/21 Recommendations on Education 

he Commission views education as critical to the nation’s security and its future, and 

stresses the imperative to recapitalize America’s strength in science and education as a 

major national security challenge. The scale and nature of the ongoing revolution in science and 

technology implies the need for human capital of unprecedented quality in the 21st century. The 

Phase III report states: “Second only to a weapon of mass destruction detonating in an American 

city, we can think of nothing more dangerous than a failure to manage properly science, technology, 

and education for the common good over the next quarter century.” 1

Furthermore, the USCNS/21 points out the harsh reality that the nation’s need for the 

highest quality human capital in science, mathematics, and engineering is not being met by its 

education system. Various reasons exist. Perhaps foremost among them is that American students 

see professional careers in basic science and mathematics as requiring considerable preparation and 

effort, while salaries are often more lucrative in areas requiring less demanding training. Non-U.S. 

nationals, however, find these professions attractive, and thanks to science, math, and technical 

preparation superior to that of many Americans, they increasingly fill American university graduate 

studies seats and commercial careers. Just as important, but more troubling, the American 

kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) education system is not performing as well as it should in 

preparing students for college education or the commercial sector. The fact is that too few American 

students are qualified to take these slots, even were they so inclined. 2

In a knowledge-based future, only an America that remains at the cutting edge of science 

and technology will sustain its current world leadership. In such a future, only a well-trained and 

educated population can thrive economically and prosper. Complacency with our current 

achievements and educational standards will put all of this at risk.

To address these concerns the USCNS/21 made the following recommendations:3

1) The President should propose, and Congress should pass, a National Security Science and 

Technology Education Act (NSSTEA) with four sections: reduced-interest loans and 

scholarships for students to pursue degrees in science, mathematics, and engineering; loan 

forgiveness and scholarships for those in these fields entering government or military service; a 

 

1 Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change, Phase III report of the United States Commission 

on National Security/21st Century, March 15, 2001, Section II, p. 29. 2

 Ibid. 

3

 Ibid., pp. 40-44. 

T
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 5

National Security Teaching Program to foster science and math teaching at the K-12 level; and 

increased funding for professional development for science and math teachers. 

2) The President should direct the Department of Education to work with the states to devise a 

comprehensive plan to avert a looming shortage of quality teachers. This plan should emphasize 

raising teacher compensation, improving infrastructure support, reforming the certification 

process, and expanding existing programs targeted at districts with especially acute problems. 

3) The President and Congress should devise a targeted program to strengthen the historically black 

colleges and universities in our country, and should particularly support those that emphasize 

science, mathematics, and engineering. 

cting on the above recommendations, this addendum provides cost estimates to 

redress the teacher shortage in science and mathematics. For that purpose, student and 

teacher pipelines are analyzed. Cost estimates are also made for the incentives needed to attract 

greater numbers of students into the science and mathematics teaching profession, and to attract 

students into science, engineering, and technology-related fields for the purpose of government and 

military-related service. 

A
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

6 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

Public and Private School Student and Teacher Pipelines

he public and private elementary and secondary school teacher and student pipelines 

must be understood in order to make sound estimates of future teacher requirements. 

Both of these pipelines vary over time because of social and demographic changes. Our knowledge 

of these pipelines is limited to the occasional statistical snapshots taken by the U.S. Department of 

Education. The last major snapshot of the teacher pipeline was done for the 1993-94 school year.4

Unfortunately, the scheduled 1997 survey was delayed. Our projected characterization of future 

teacher requirements must be based on the 1993-94 data, assuming that similar statistics apply. 

Given that there are over 2.5 million teachers in the public school system, this assumption should 

provide approximate teacher pipeline requirements adequate for making the USCNS/21’s cost 

estimates. These estimates are rough, however, and cannot be viewed as actual predictions. 

The Student Pipeline

he demand for teachers is tied to the teacher supply and to the demands placed upon it 

by the student population. According to U.S. Department of Education statistics, the 

public school student population rose significantly from approximately 39 million in 1985 to about 

47 million in the 1990s, and is projected to remain at that level in the upcoming decade.5

 These 

statistics are illustrated in Figure 1. 

 

4

 Stephen P. Broughman and Mary R. Rollefson, Teacher Supply in the United States: Sources of Newly Hired 

Teachers in Public and Private Schools, 1987-88 to 1993-94, U.S. Department of Education, Office of 

Educational Research and Improvement, NCES 2000-309. 

5 Projections of Education Statistics to 2008 and Projections of Education Statistics to 2010 as obtained from 

W. J. Hussar, National Center of Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education. 

T

T

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Number (in Thousands)

Figure 1. Projected Public School Student Population 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 7

These projections indicate that the overall teacher population we currently have of approximately 

2.9 million should be an adequate “floor” upon which to base future teacher pipeline levels. The 

term floor is used because of the known inadequate number of teachers in many of the nation’s 

school districts. 

The Teacher Pipeline

ach year, fluctuations in the teacher pipeline occur due to the influx of newly prepared 

teachers, teachers delaying entry into the system, retiring teachers, teachers leaving the 

profession, teachers transferring between jobs, and former teachers reentering to the profession. The 

health of the pipeline depends on maintaining teacher levels required to meet the needs of the student 

population, and a reasonable equilibrium in teachers entering and leaving the pipeline. Based on the 

1993-1994 U.S. Department of Education data, the teacher pipeline can be characterized as shown in 

Figure 2.6

 

6

 William J. Hussar, Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008-2009, 

National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, NCES 1999-026, 1999. And see 

Stephen P. Broughman and Mary R. Rollefson, Teacher Supply in the United States: Sources of Newly Hired 

Teachers in Public and Private Schools, 1987-88 to 1993-94, U.S. Department of Education, Office of 

Educational Research and Improvement, NCES 2000-309. 

E

Teacher

Reentrants

First Time

Newly Prepared Delayed Entrants

2,191,863 Continuing

+ 202,679 New Hires

46,277

51,433

59,098 33,655

Transfers

63,597

29.16% 16.61%

22.86%

31.38%

45.76%

Total New Hires = First Time Teachers + Reentrants + Transfers

Percentages are relative total new hires.

Retiring(Unpublished Data)

92,753

2,394,542

Total

Figure 2: 1993-94 Public School Teacher Pipeline
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

8 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

Figure 2 portrays new hires as teachers transferring, teachers reentering the pipeline after a 

year or more of absence, or as first time teachers. First time teachers are newly prepared teachers or 

delayed entrants that chose to wait, or work elsewhere before entering the teacher pipeline. In 1993-

94 a total of 2,394,542 teachers were in the pipeline, excluding the 51,433 retirees. 

Analysis of U.S. Department of Education projections on the teacher pipeline highlights two 

major concerns. First is the graying of the teacher population. Second is the problem of attracting a 

sufficient number of teachers into the profession. This year the number of retirees is expected to rise 

to roughly 57,000 teachers per year. By 2010 that number will grow to about 88,000 retirees 

annually.7

 This is illustrated in Figure 3. 

The data indicate that on average about 3,448 more teachers will retire each year than the 

previous year, and many teachers are retiring as early as possible in their early sixties. The reason for 

this large slope can be seen in the age distribution of the current teacher population, which reflects 

the demographic realities of the “baby boom” generation (shown in Figure 4 below). 8 This growth 

 

7

 Unpublished data obtained from William J. Hussar, based on “School and Staffing” and “Common Core of 

Data” surveys, National Center of Education Statistics, April 2001. 

8

 William J. Hussar, Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008-2009, 

National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, NCES 1999-026, 1999. 

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

Slope = 3,448

Figure 3. Retirees – Public Schools 2000 to 2010 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 9

in retirement numbers will place tremendous pressure on efforts to maintain an adequate teacher 

supply. 

Retirement pressures on the teacher supply will be compounded by the second major 

concern, failure to attract and retain sufficient numbers of teachers in today’s economy. The 

Commission pointed out in its Phase III report that increasing numbers of teacher-qualified 

candidates opt to pursue other more attractive and monetarily rewarding fields.9 Based on these 

numbers the U.S. Department of Education estimates that 2.4 to 2.7 million new public school 

teachers will be needed in the coming decade.

10 Each year 220,000 to 260,000 new teachers must 

be hired. 

Since the student population is relatively stable, as discussed earlier, the current teacher 

numbers will be used as a baseline to estimate future teacher requirements. Currently there are 

2,887,000 teachers for public schools and 397,000 teachers for private K-12 schools.11 Table 1 

summarizes the 1993-94 reference statistics and the 1999-2000 estimated statistics derived from 

 

9 Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change, Phase III report of the United States Commission 

on National Security/21st Century, March 15, 2001. 10 William J. Hussar, Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008-2009, 

National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, NCES 1999-026, 1999, Table 7, p. 35. 

11 Thomas D. Snyder and Marlene M. Hoffman, Digest of Education Statistics 2000, U.S. Department of 

Education, Office of Educational Research Improvement, NCES 2001-034, January 2001, Table 65, p. 74. 

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Age

Number

Figure 4. Age Distribution of Public School Teachers 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

10 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

them. Numbers in italic are those estimated by the USCNS/21 for this report, those without italic are 

U.S. Department of Education statistics. 

Table 1. 1999-2000 Base Estimates for Teacher Pipeline

1993-94 Estimated 1999-2000+ 

Public Private Public Private 

K-12 Totals 2,394,542 337,228 2,887,000 397,000

 Continuing 2,191,863 281,040 2,642,638 330,853

 New Hires 202,679 56,188 244,362 66,147

 Newly Prepared 59,098 11,830 71,252 13,927

 Delayed Entrants 33,655 12,016 40,576 14,146

 Transfers 63,597 19,266 76,676 22,681

 Reentrants 46,330 13,076 55,858 15,394

 

These estimates clearly show that if the current trend continues, about 85,000 newly minted 

teachers are needed to maintain the pipeline if the retirement rate was constant. However, as 

highlighted earlier, each succeeding year will require on average an additional 3,400 teachers. The 

estimate of 244,362 new hires per year conforms with the U.S. Department of Education estimates 

that 220,000 to 260,000 new hires per year are needed, taking into account retirement rates. 

Depending on scenario assumptions, a total of 2.2 to 2.7 million new public school teachers, and 

520,000 to 620,000 private school teachers are needed over the next decade.12 This also assumes that 

current teacher retention rates do not decline. If they do, higher numbers of newly prepared teachers 

will be required. Unfortunately, there are already indicators that increasing numbers of current 

and potential teachers are leaving for the private sector. 

 

12 Note that these are teachers in the new-hire category and are a mix of newly made, delayed entrants, 

reentrants and transfers. See William J. Hussar, Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United 

States to 2008-2009, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, NCES 1999-026, 

1999, Table 7, p. 35 and Table 9 p. 37. 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 11

Today the United States produces about 106,000 education majors with a bachelor’s 

degree.13 Excluding science and math, this raw number should be sufficient to serve most of the 

nation’s needs, but many choose not to go into education. The National Education Association points 

out that 30 percent of graduates never enter teaching, and of those who do, 30 percent leave within 

the first five years.14 In major cities the problem is much worse; 50 percent leave within the first five 

years. 

Of greater concern is the loss of high quality graduates. Novice teachers scoring in the top 

quartile on college-entrance examinations are nearly twice as likely to leave the profession.15

Continuation rates and new entrant rates—especially of science and math teachers—must to be 

improved through effective salary and scholarship incentives. These incentives are explained in 

later sections of this report. 

 

13 Thomas D. Snyder and Marlene M. Hoffman, Digest of Education Statistics 2000, U.S. Department of 

Education, Office of Educational Research Improvement, NCES 2001-034, January 2001, Table 257, p. 300. 

14 NEA Today, The Magazine of the National Education Association, May 2001, p. 10. 15 “A Picture of the Teacher Pipeline: Baccalaurate and Beyond,” Quality Counts 2000: Who Should Teach, 

http://www.edweek.org. 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

12 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

The Science and Mathematics Teacher Pipeline

eacher statistics for specific subject areas is generally quite limited. Those statistics 

available are sufficient to provide only a rough, if not crude, view of the science and 

mathematics teacher pipeline. As in the previous estimates, the 1993-94 U.S. Department of 

Education statistics must serve as a base reference for current and projected estimates. Again, 

numbers in italic are those estimated for this report, those without italic are U.S. Department of 

Education Statistics. The estimates are presented in Table 2. 

Note that the total K-12 teacher numbers are different than in Table 1. This is due to the 

different statistical survey data sets used at the National Center for Education Statistics.16 From these 

rough estimates we can see that there are currently about 260,000 science and mathematics teachers 

in public secondary school and about 31,000 in private secondary schools. The number in 

elementary schools is very small by comparison. 

Table 2. 1999-2000+ Base Estimates for the Science and Mathematics Teacher Pipeline 

1993-9417 Estimated 1999-2000+18

Public Private Public Private

Number %19 Number % Number % Number %

K-12 Totals 2,561,294 378,365 2,877,000 397,000

Elementary (K-8) 1,331,281 51.98 221,036 58.42 1,733,000 60.03 281,000 70.78

 General 938,646 70.51 153,691 69.53 1,221,886 70.51 195,385 69.53

 Mathematics 3,372 0.25 560 20 0.25 4,390 0.25 712 0.25

 Other Areas 389,263 29.24 66,785 30.21 506,725 29.24 59,035 30.21

Secondary (9-12) 1,230,013 48.02 157,329 41.58 1,154,000 39.97 116,000 29.22

 Mathematics 141,051 11.47 23,238 14.77 132,334 11.47 17,134 14.77

 Science 132,179 10.75 18,399 11.69 124,011 10.75 13,566 11.69

 Other Areas 956,783 77.79 115,692 73.54 897,655 77.79 85,301 73.54

 

16 The previous table was base on statistics found in William J. Hussar, Predicting the Need for Newly Hired 

Teachers in the United States to 2008-2009, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of 

Education, NCES 1999-026, 1999, which does not provide a breakdown into teacher subject areas. 

17 Thomas D. Snyder and Marlene M. Hoffman, Digest of Education Statistics 2000, U.S. Department of 

Education, Office of Educational Research Improvement, NCES 2001-034, January 2001, Table 68, p. 77. 

18 Ibid., Table 65, p. 74. Estimates are based on the analogous statistics in the previous two columns. 

19 Elementary and Secondary percentages are relative to total K-12 totals. Subcategory percentages are relative 

to either elementary or secondary totals as applicable. 

T
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 13

In order to estimate the total number of science and mathematics teachers over the next 

decade, the U.S. Department of Education predictions for the yearly number of new hires will be 

used. The government estimates cover the total number of teachers needed, but are not broken down 

by educational subject area. We estimate the number of science and mathematics new hires based on 

the percentages shown in Table 2. We do this by estimating required math and science teacher 

numbers based on different “percentages of teachers” who are teaching these subjects in the public 

and private sector. All of the Commission’s detailed estimates can be found in Appendix A, in 

Tables A-1 through A-4. Tables A-1 and A-2, for example, show these estimates for public and 

private schools respectively.21 Extrapolating from Table 2, the USCNS/21’s initial raw estimates 

show that over the next decade the public secondary schools will need roughly 223,000 new hires in 

science and mathematics. An additional 44,000 science and math new hires will also be needed by 

private secondary schools. 

 major concern, however, arises over the number of science and mathematics teachers 

in elementary schools, particularly in the 7th and 8th grades. From Table 2 above, the 

percentage of math subject area teachers is 0.25 percent for elementary schools (K-8). The 

percentage of science teachers in elementary schools is not available from the U.S. Department of 

Education. Either science is taught entirely by generalists, or the statistics are not tracked. 

Generalists at this level normally teach both math and science. 

The USCNS/21 believes that it is absolutely essential to improve the quality of science and 

mathematics education in this country as early as possible. When compared to international tests, the 

performance of American school children often suffers going from the 4th to the 8th grade.22 To 

remedy this situation the percentage of science and mathematics teachers at the junior high level 

should approximate those found in high school. Hence, the Commission added the estimated 

number of new hires needed to meet this higher goal to improve the quality of science and math 

teachers in junior high schools. With this addition, a total approximate number of 297,000 science 

and math new hires are needed for public 7-12 education and about 68,000 for private 7-12 

education. 

 20 This number is not provided in the reference table; it was estimated using the analogous public school 

numbers in the first column. 

21 We note that the Digest of Education Statistics 2000 defines elementary school as K-8. However, secondary 

school is defined as either 7-12 or 9-12. If so, what is called “secondary” in many of the U.S. Department of 

Education tables may be mixed. We have assumed that elementary is K-8 and secondary is 9-12. We have 

inferred the population of junior high school teachers based on a uniform distribution of teachers K-8, i.e. the 

number of 7th and 8th teachers is 2/9 of the total number of elementary school teachers. 22 “Lessons from the World: What TIMSS Tells Us About Mathematics Achievement, Curriculum, and 

Instruction,” AFT Educational Issues Department, Washington, DC, Education Policy Brief, Number 10, 

A
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

14 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

Even these estimates, however, potentially fail to capture another quality-related problem. 

The U.S. Department of Education estimates that 34 percent of public school mathematics and 

nearly 40 percent of science teachers lack even an academic minor in their primary teaching 

field.

23 Department of Education data for “teaching field in which largest portion of time was spent” 

also indicates that 12.6 percent is spent teaching science and 17.2 percent is spent on mathematics in 

public secondary schools.24 This is further evidence that a significant number of teachers without 

strong science and mathematics backgrounds are teaching these subjects. It indicates that curricula 

needs actually exceed the number of both qualified and non-qualified science and mathematics 

teachers by a significant percentage.25 However, the U.S. Department of Education’s data captures 

none of this; it must be extrapolated. 

If the actual percentage of teachers in science and mathematics assumed for public junior 

high and secondary schools is modified to reflect the higher 12.6 and 17.2 teaching percentages (as 

discussed above), a total of 399,000 science and mathematics new hires may be needed by public 

schools vice 297,000. (See Table 3 below.) 

Table 3. High Estimated Number of Public School Math and Science New Hires 

(in Thousands) 

[Jr. High and Secondary with 12.6% Science and 17.2% Math Teachers] 

Year 

Public 

Total

K-8 7-8 9-12 Math 

7-8 

Math 

9-12 

Science 

7-8 

Science

9-12 

2000 235 141 31 94 5.4 16.2 3.9 11.8 

2001 233 140 31 93 5.3 16.0 3.9 11.7 

2002 244 146 33 98 5.6 16.8 4.1 12.3 

2003 252 151 34 101 5.8 17.3 4.2 12.7 

2004 253 152 34 101 5.8 17.4 4.3 12.8 

2005 256 154 34 102 5.9 17.6 4.3 12.9 

2006 256 154 34 102 5.9 17.6 4.3 12.9 

2007 259 155 35 104 5.9 17.8 4.4 13.1 

2008 261 157 35 104 6.0 18.0 4.4 13.2 

2009 261 157 35 104 6.0 18.0 4.4 13.2 

 Totals 57.6 172.7 42.2 126.5 

 Total Sec. 299 

 Total 7-12 399 

Note: Rounding may cause sums to not appear exact 

 

November 1999. For greater discussion see the National Commission on Mathematics and Science Teaching 

for the 21st Century Report, Before It’s Too Late, September 27, 2000. 23 U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1993-1994 Schools and Staffing 

Survey (Teacher Questionnaire), Washington, DC: 1997, p. 26. 24 Thomas D. Snyder and Marlene M. Hoffman, Digest of Education Statistics 2000, U.S. Department of 

Education, Office of Educational Research Improvement, NCES 2001-034, January 2001, Table 71, p. 80. 

25 Excess curricula needs may produce additional negative consequences. These include larger class sizes and 

over-worked science and math teachers, which helps to explain the further exodus of talent from this teaching 

career field. 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 15

Ultimately, all these numbers illustrate what it will take to address the deficit involved. 

This significant difference may be required to improve and provide high-quality science and 

mathematics teachers in junior and senior high. However, we will focus on the more moderate 

accepted estimates. 

ll the estimates given above are for the number of new hires. Recall that this includes 

new teachers—those who delayed their entry into teaching, reentrants who have been 

away from teaching a year or more, and transfers. Tables A-3 and A-4 in Appendix A provide an 

estimated breakdown of data for each of the above new hire categories, using high and low 

percentages for the required number of science and mathematics teachers. Thus, the Commission 

notes that 136,000 to 183,000 new public school science and mathematics teachers are needed 

(newly prepared plus delayed entrants). We also estimate that 68,000 to 91,000 reentrants are 

needed. This of course assumes that continuation, retirement, and reentry rates will remain as 

currently projected by the Department of Education. In today’s economy this may not be the case, 

particularly for science and mathematics teachers. If new teachers and reentrants are combined, we 

estimate that 204,000 to 274,000 science and mathematics teachers are needed that are not in the 

current pipeline. These numbers can be compared to the 240,000 estimate of the Glenn 

Commission.26 If the reentry rate remains stable the Glenn Commission estimate of 240,000 appears 

adequate and would actually improve current shortages in the status quo. 

 

26 The National Commission on Mathematics and Science Teaching for the 21st Century, or Glenn Commission 

Report, Before It’s Too Late, September 27, 2000. 

A
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

16 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

Modernizing Assessment Capability

t is unavoidable that statistics will vary according to survey, particularly when statistics 

are gathered only periodically over a limited population sample. Significant differences 

can be found depending on the source and the specific survey. The statistics are only as good as the 

quality of the survey estimates. Much better operational statistics are needed. At present, great 

emphasis is placed on “social statistics” and general qualifications. Far more knowledge is required 

of the teacher pipeline and its behavior over time, to include accurate numbers for the categories 

of teachers entering and leaving the profession. This is particularly true for critical information 

on teacher statistics by educational subject area. Only then can the impact of Federal, State and 

local policies be measured. The last major survey by the Department of Education was in 1993-

1994. The 1997 survey was postponed and the currently available statistics are dated. Significant 

changes in demographics and the economy have occurred since then. 

To put this problem into its proper context, consider the case of the military Services. Bulk 

statistics on personnel are simply not useful. Because of their operational responsibilities, each of the 

Services must also gather data on each of its many job and skill categories. For example, the Air 

Force needs to know how many pilots of different categories, how many weapon systems operators, 

and how many avionics technicians, flight mechanics and so forth are in its current and future 

pipelines. Furthermore, many different measures of effectiveness based on exercises and real world 

operations are required. The military uses data to improve its human capital to meet current and 

future missions. In the private sector similar human resource information is gathered for the purpose 

of competitive analysis and long-range planning. Improving “operational performance” is 

recognized as essential to insure greater profits and productivity. The U.S. Department of 

Education, with the support of the Executive and Legislative Branches, needs to reassess how the 

nation’s school systems are evaluated, how statistics are gathered, and to what purpose. This is 

essential if scarce resources are to be properly targeted.

Perhaps nothing illustrates the need for better data than the situation regarding available 

statistics on science and mathematics education in elementary schools, particularly in middle 

schools. According to Department of Education statistics, there are only 0.25 percent mathematics 

teachers within elementary school faculties. 27 The number of science trained teachers is not given. 

Earlier we noted that secondary school statistics may contain 7th to 12th grade or 9th to 12th grade 

statistics. This is understandable given that some large secondary schools include middle school 

I
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 17

grades. Unfortunately, this confusion opens up more questions than it answers. If the elementary 

school statistics are correct they point to the sad shortage of elementary school mathematics and 

science teachers. It is for this reason that the USCNS/21 expanded its earlier secondary school 

science and mathematics statistical estimates to include the junior high school grades. In any case, a 

better measure is needed of how much time is spent on science and mathematics teaching versus 

the number of properly trained teachers for all grades K-12. If the situation exists as it appears, 

significant investment in new science and mathematics teachers is needed. However, without 

adequate data, estimating the necessary investments will be a shot in the dark. 

Both the Commission’s Phase I and Phase III reports point out that America faces an era of 

great opportunity in which distributed scientific instrumentation and information technologies will 

greatly expand our ability to understand and improve our complex work environment.28 We 

currently possess an unprecedented capability to gather information instantaneously via the Internet. 

Given that Internet connectivity is rapidly becoming an integral part of today’s schools, the 

opportunity exists to collect data directly and instantaneously from the vast majority of the nation’s 

public schools. Hence, we recommend that the Executive and Congress devote funds to a userfriendly, Internet-based data collection system to provide improved student and teacher pipeline 

data automatically from each school district across the nation to serve the needs of Federal, State, 

and local governments. Too many of the U.S Department of Education’s projections are based on 

dated statistics, spanning a period of significant demographic and socio-economic change. Likewise, 

too much teacher pipeline data is ambiguous and often focused on “social characteristics” at the 

expense of necessary operational data. Of course adequate safeguards must also be included to 

protect personal privacy. 

The efforts recommended above would complement the President’s initiative to measure 

performance in education since they would help capture data to better diagnose teacher and resource 

problems in the nation’s schools. With the appropriate analytical capability and greater budgetary 

flexibility, both States and the Federal government would posses enhanced means to target education 

funds in a more timely and effective manner. 

 27 See Thomas D. Snyder and Marlene M. Hoffman, Digest of Education Statistics 2000, U.S. Department of 

Education, Office of Educational Research Improvement, NCES 2001-034, January 2001, Table 68, p. 77, or 

Table 2 in this report. 

28 New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century, Supporting Research & Analysis, Phase I report 

of the United States Commission on National Security/21st Century, September 15, 1999; and, Road Map for 

National Security: Imperative for Change, Phase III report of the United States Commission on National 

Security/21st Century, March 15, 2001. 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

18 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

Addressing the Science and Mathematics Teacher Shortage

oth the Glenn Commission and the USCNS/21 proposed a combination of fellowships, 

loans, and scholarships to redress the shortage of science and mathematics teachers.29

Our low and high end projections bracket their estimate of the need for 240,000 new science and 

mathematics teachers over the next decade. Adopting this conservative figure, this Commission 

supports the associated $174 million funding recommendation of the Glenn Commission. The 

details are summarized in Table 4. 

Table 4. Glenn Commission Funding Recommendations to Increase the Number of New 

Science and Mathematics Teachers 

3,000 fellowships per year ($30,000 each) 

with $10,000 per fellow per school district 

Total .................................................................... 

$ 90,000,000 

$ 30,000,000 

$120,000,000

6,000 loans with forgiveness for teaching 

($6,000 per loan) 

$ 36,000,000 

1,500 scholarships for exemplary candidates 

($12,000 each) 

$ 18,000,000 

Total Funds required from the 

Federal Government ......................................... $174,000,000 

However, if teaching continues to be an unattractive profession, these funding estimates will 

be inadequate. The Glenn Commission provides other funding initiatives to improve teacher training 

and professional development based on three “Goals:” first, to establish an ongoing system to 

improve the quality of math and science teaching grades K-12; second, to increase significantly the 

number of math and science teachers and improve the quality of their preparations; and third, to 

improve the working environment and make the teaching profession more attractive for K-12 math 

and science teachers.30 In total (including the $174 million above) they propose $5 billion in 

expenditures, $3 billion of which should be provided by the Federal government, and the rest 

 

29 See, The National Commission on Mathematics and Science Teaching for the 21st Century, or Glenn 

Commission Report, Before It’s Too Late, September 27, 2000, and USCNS/21 Road Map for National 

Security: Imperative for Change, pp. 40-43. 30 Ibid., pp. 8-9. 

 B
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 19

provided by State/Local and the public/private sector. Their proposal is recreated in Table 5 

below.31

 

 

Ultimately, the key to recapitalizing the science and mathematics teacher pipeline is to 

stabilize and improve the retention of teachers. The Glenn Commission cites “poor salary” as the 

primary reason (66 percent) for science and math teachers leaving the profession.32 A potential 

solution is to use differential pay for teachers in these critical demand areas. The typical salary of an 

entry-level bachelors degree teacher is $25,000 whereas a mathematics major can earn $40,000 to 

 

31 Ibid., p. 42. 

32 Ibid., p. 33. 

Table 5. Glenn Commission Total Cost Estimate in First Year

 [Prepared by the U.S. Department of Education Budget Office]

Action Strategy Federal State/Local Business Public/Private

Goal 1 Needs Assessment1, 2 $15,340,000 $7,660,000 

 Summer Institutes1, 4 $1,214,000,000 $606,060,000 

 Inquiry Groups1, 5 1,574,950,000 $786,300,000 

 Leadership Training3

 $112,000,000 

 Internet Portal $50,000,000 

 Coordinating Council $4,000,000 

 Rewards Program $500,000,000 

Goal 2 Scholarships6

 $18,000,000 

 Loan Forgiveness7

 $36,000,000 

 Academies/Fellows8, 9 $120,000,000 

Goal 3 Induction/Partnerships/Incentives/Salaries To be determined locally

 

Sub Total: $3,140,290,000 $1,400,020,000 $500,000,000 $4,000,000

 Total: $5,044,310,000 

 

NOTES: 

1. Current authorizing legislation for the Eisenhower Professional Development State Grants (ESEA,IIB)

requires that each participating Local Education Agency match every two dollars of federal funding with one

dollar of its own resources. Such local resources can come from other federal programs or from non-federal 

sources. The same ratio is used here for those Strategies in which it is most appropriate. 

2. First year, one time cost. 

3. First year, one time cost for 15,000 leaders. 

4. One-fifth of the math/science teaching force (340,000 per year) 

5. All K-12 math/science teachers (1.7 million) 

6. Scholarships offered (1,500/year) 

7. Loans offered (6,000/year) 

8. Stipends and operating expenses (3,000 Fellow/year) 

9. Beginning in second year, an additional $30,000,000 needed for induction programs 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

20 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

$50,000 in the private sector.33 Furthermore, college debt burdens prevent many from entering the 

teaching profession. This same difficulty is found in recruiting college graduates for the government 

and the military. 

If differential salaries are acceptable, the first step should be to bring the salaries of public 

school secondary science and mathematics teachers to competitive levels. Using the $50,000 private 

sector salary and the $25,000 starting teacher salary as baselines, it would take about $6.4 billion 

annually to raise the salaries of all public secondary school science and mathematics teachers (as 

shown in Table 6 below). For comparison, a less ambitious proposal to reward the top quartile 

teachers to fully competitive salaries and second quartile teachers to a half salary differential 

increase would cost $2.4 billion annually. Needless to say, these estimates are cursory, but they 

illustrate the annual costs that might have to be faced if the current salary imbalance continues for 

these professionals. Bonuses could be considered, but the results would likely be short-lived. 

Because most education funding comes from state and local governments, they will have to 

be persuaded to accept a portion of the costs involved. The Glenn Commission placed funding 

responsibility at those levels, as does the USCNS/21. However, the U.S. Department of Education 

should be involved in developing and incentivizing innovative partnerships with the private sector 

 

33Ann Bradley, “States’ Uneven Teacher Supply Complicates Staffing of Schools,” http://www.edweek.org. 

Table 6. Cost Estimate for Secondary Science and Mathematics Teacher 

 Salary Differential Pay 

[Overhead and benefits costs not included.]

Public School Reference Starting Salary $25,000

Private Sector Reference Starting Salary $50,000

Full Salary Differential $25,000

Half Full Salary Diffential $12,500

1999-2000+

Secondary 25% 25%

Teachers Full Raise Half Raise

Mathematics 132,334 $827,087,500 $413,543,750

Science 124,011 $775,068,750 $387,534,375

Total $1,602,156,250 $801,078,125

$2,403,234,375

for all Secondary Science and Math Teachers ...... $6,408,625,000

Total Additional Salary Requirements ...................

Total Additional Salary Requirement
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 21

that can assist this effort and share the financial burden. This is explained in the Commission’s main 

Phase III report and in the Glenn Commission report. The USCNS/21 emphasizes that both the 

private sector and the nation will benefit from a highly trained workforce, and science and 

mathematics teachers are a critical ingredient in achieving that workforce. 

As a legislative vehicle to redress the nation’s critical needs in science and technology, the 

Commission proposes the National Security Science and Technology Education Act (NSSTEA). 

Funding proposals such as those above should be incorporated into this legislation. 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

22 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

Addressing Government Science and Math Personnel Shortages 

he depletion of math and science expertise in the government’s civilian and military 

work force is of critical concern. At the exact time that American science and 

technology is most valued and integral to ensure U.S. national security and continued prosperity in 

the world, it is placing its greatest demands on government. The USCNS/21 calls this a true “crisis 

in competence in government.” Nowhere is our competence more challenged than the science, 

math, and engineering brain drain that is taking place within government ranks at an ever-increasing 

rate. In addition, government service is not attracting new talent, as was the case in previous 

generations. While Americans still appear to admire selected government institutions such as the 

Foreign Service and the Military, they are increasingly less likely to serve in them. Without a 

renewed call, particularly to scientists, mathematicians, and engineers, the government, both civilian 

and military, will neither cope with 21st century security requirements, nor keep pace in a world 

increasingly characterized by its singular reliance on science and technology expertise. 

 The National Security Science and Technology Education Act (NSSTEA) has another 

crucial objective beyond improving education. It will also provide a substantial and much needed 

incentive for math, science, and engineering graduates to choose civilian or military government 

service as an alternative to K-12 teaching. The USCNS/21 developed estimates based on existing 

scholarship programs in government and the statistics of annual personnel turnover, together with 

projected retirement rates (especially for civilian scientists). The Commission estimates that the 

four-year cost of reinvigorating government with needed undergraduate and graduate scientists 

using the NSSTEA would amount to a total of $105 million. 34 (See Table 7 below.) 

In the military, officer accessions are a known figure for any given year. The number of 

new officers coming into service via the military academies, the Reserve Officer Training Corps 

(ROTC), and other specialized accession programs provide an indication of the requirement that 

could be filled effectively by the NSSTEA source. For civilian government service, and particularly 

the national security elements of government, the costing variables are both different and more 

difficult to quantify. A graying civilian scientific workforce, together with a downsized and everreorganizing research and development (R&D) force, makes predictions precarious.35 Table 7 

 

34 The cost estimates are based on 840 scholarships per year for all majors in the military and the civilian 

workforce. Forty percent of the scholarships would be offered through the NSSTEA to math, science, and 

engineering students. Ten percent of that civilian math and science pool could qualify for post-graduate 

degrees. 

35 The Commission had access to the Air Force’s science Ph.D. goals and estimated the other services. On the 

civilian side, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) provided the number of scientist GS 9 through GS 

15’s hired annually in the government (31,000). However, the Commission could not get statistics for those 

T
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 23

provides cost estimates using a planning figure of 400 undergraduate scholarships for the military 

and 400 for government. In addition, the table provides the estimated cost of 40 three-year postgraduate math and science scholarships for civilian candidates. This would provide funds to attract 

8,400 additional graduates into government service over four years. The annual cost from the fouryear point forward would amount to $41 million per year. The USCNS/21 considers this a 

reasonable price to ensure our national security and national prosperity. 

Table 7. National Security Science and Technology Education Act

Government Participants (Civil and Military)

 

Tuition/Room/Board % Split Average Loan Debt 

Private: $22,541 25 $11,987.75 Average $14,000* 

Public: $8,470 75 

 

Participants Year and Quantity

Scholarship YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 Total Cost 

Over 4 

Years**

Annual 

Operating 

Cost***

Military-Technical 400 800 1,200 1,600 

 

Civilian-Technical 400 800 1,200 1,600 

Civilian-Graduate 40 80 120 120 

Subtotal Cost $10,549,220 $21,098,440 $31,647,660 $41,237,860 $104,533,180 $41,237,860

 

Administrative Costs $300,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $450,000 $50,000

TOTAL COST $10,849,220 $21,148,440 $31,697,660 $41,287,860 $104,983,180 $41,287,860

* Average College debt based on composite of public and private school mean debt. Debt relief provisions covered in 

separate legislation expanding NSEA at an estimated cost of 33.6M when fully operational. 

** Annual tuition increase approximately 7%. 

***Total Operating costs based on FY 2001 dollars. Operating estimates not adjusted for inflation. 

 

 

specifically entering only the national security elements of government, and OMB could not give the number 

of scientists in R&D labs and elsewhere. The Commission also used figures from the National Science Board 

on the graying government scientist population, which is similar to the civilian force as a whole. 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

24 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

Implications 

he U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century did not approach its tasks with 

the attitude of an accountant. Some of its recommendations cost money; others promise 

to save money. In the former case, the Commission considers such costs as investments in first-order 

U.S. national security priorities. In the latter case, the Commission considers saving as second-order 

benefits. 

In the area of education, which is, after all, a special if broader facet of the personnel issues 

addressed in Section IV of the Phase III report, the investments required seem significant—but they 

pale by orders of magnitude when contrasted against the cost of other national security programs. 

The total additional Federal investments implied by the Commission’s recommendations on 

education come to a little over $3 billion initially, and over a decade average about $715 million per 

year. This latter figure is one fourth of one percent of the annual defense budget. Such comparisons 

are prone to abuse by polemicists of various sorts, but in this case, given that the Commission sees 

education as a national security issue, we believe the contrast to be a meaningful one. 

In the course of estimating the magnitude of the investment in education that the 

Commission’s recommendations entail, the USCNS/21 ran into surprising and worrisome analytical 

problems regarding basic data. Discussions with analysts on the Glenn Commission revealed they 

had a similar problem, which forced them to resort to many in-house estimates. The Department of 

Education is simply not in a position to do the analytical work required to make sensible estimates of 

future needs in science and math education. Without such abilities, the capacity of the government to 

plan sensibly for meeting the challenge of education is severely jeopardized. Thus, in addition to the 

specific investments noted above, additional energies and resources need to be devoted to improving 

the Department of Education’s statistical capacity. 

Unfortunately, the USCNS/21 is at a loss to estimate what that would cost. But it is not too 

much to suggest that this is a fitting—and, indeed, urgent—subject of scrutiny for both the Office of 

Management and Budget and the General Accounting Office. 

T
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 25

Appendix A, Commission Science and Math Teacher Tabular Estimates 

Table A-1. Estimated Number of Public School Math and Science New Hires 

(in Thousands) 

[Jr. High and Secondary with 10.75% Science and 11.47% Math Teachers] 

Year 

Public 

Total36

K-8 7-8 9-12 Math 

7-8 

Math 

9-12 

Science 

7-8 

Science

9-12 

2000 235 141 31 94 3.6 10.8 3.4 10.1 

2001 233 140 31 93 3.6 10.7 3.3 10.0 

2002 244 146 33 98 3.7 11.2 3.5 10.5 

2003 252 151 34 101 3.9 11.6 3.6 10.8 

2004 253 152 34 101 3.9 11.6 3.6 10.9 

2005 256 154 34 102 3.9 11.7 3.7 11.0 

2006 256 154 34 102 3.9 11.7 3.7 11.0 

2007 259 155 35 104 4.0 11.9 3.7 11.1 

2008 261 157 35 104 4.0 12.0 3.7 11.2 

2009 261 157 35 104 4.0 12.0 3.7 11.2 

 Totals 38.4 115.2 36.0 107.9 

 Total Sec. 223 

 Total 7-12 297 

Note: Rounding may cause sums to not appear exact 

Table A-2. Estimated Number of Private School Math and Science New Hires 

(in Thousands) 

[Jr. High and Secondary with 14.77% Science and 11.69% Math Teachers] 

Year 

Public 

Total37

K-8 7-8 9-12 Math 

7-8 

Math 

9-12 

Science 

7-8 

Science

9-12 

2000 55 39 8.7 16.1 1.3 2.4 1.0 1.9 

2001 55 39 8.7 16.1 1.3 2.4 1.0 1.9 

2002 57 40 9.0 16.7 1.3 2.4 1.0 1.9 

2003 57 40 9.0 16.7 1.3 2.5 1.0 1.9 

2004 58 41 9.1 16.9 1.3 2.5 1.1 2.0 

2005 57 40 9.0 16.7 1.3 2.5 1.0 1.9 

2006 58 41 9.1 16.9 1.3 2.5 1.1 2.0 

2007 58 41 9.1 16.9 1.3 2.5 1.1 2.0 

2008 58 41 9.1 16.9 1.3 2.5 1.1 2.0 

2009 58 41 9.1 16.9 1.3 2.5 1.1 2.0 

 Totals 13.3 24.6 10.5 19.5 

Total Sec. 44 

Total 7-12 68 

Note: Rounding may cause sums to not appear exact 

 

36 William J. Hussar, Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008-2009, 

National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, NCES 1999-026, 1999, Table 7, p. 35. 

Note the 2009 entry corresponding to the 2009-2010 school year was taken to be equal to the year before. 

37 Ibid., Table 9, p. 37. The 2009 entry corresponding to the 2009-2010 school year was taken to be equal to 

the year before. Note, comparing Table A-1 to Table A-2 that private schools have a higher percentage of 

science and math teachers than public schools. 
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century 

26 Journeys Through the Teacher Pipeline 

Table A-3. Estimate of Public School Science and Mathematics Pipeline 

[10.75% Science, 11.47% Mathematics Teacher Mix]

Percentage 100% 29.16% 16.61% 22.86% 31.38%

Math Math Science Science Total Newly Delayed

Year Jr. High Secondary Jr. High Secondary New Hires Prepared Entrants Reentrants Transfers

2000 3,594 10,782 3,368 10,105 27,849 8,120 4,624 6,366 8,738

2001 3,563 10,690 3,340 10,019 27,612 8,051 4,585 6,312 8,664

2002 3,732 11,195 3,497 10,492 28,916 8,431 4,801 6,610 9,073

2003 3,854 11,562 3,612 10,836 29,864 8,708 4,959 6,827 9,371

2004 3,869 11,608 3,626 10,879 29,982 8,742 4,979 6,854 9,408

2005 3,915 11,745 3,669 11,008 30,338 8,846 5,038 6,935 9,519

2006 3,915 11,745 3,669 11,008 30,338 8,846 5,038 6,935 9,519

2007 3,961 11,883 3,712 11,137 30,693 8,950 5,097 7,016 9,631

2008 3,992 11,975 3,741 11,223 30,930 9,019 5,136 7,070 9,705

2009 3,992 11,975 3,741 11,223 30,930 9,019 5,136 7,070 9,705

Total New Hires 2000-2010 297,452 86,731 49,392 67,994 93,334

204,117

136,123

161,329

New Teachers Experienced Teachers

Total New Teachers 2000-2010

Total Experienced Teachers 2000-2012

Total Reentrants + New Teachers 2000-2010

Source of New Hires

Table A-4. Estimate of Public School Science and Mathematics Pipeline 

[12.6% Science, 17.2% Mathematics Teacher Mix]

Percentage 100% 29.16% 16.61% 22.86% 31.38%

Math Math Science Science Total Newly Delayed

Year Jr. High Secondary Jr. High Secondary New Hires Prepared Entrants Reentrants Transfers

2000 5,389 16,168 3,948 11,844 37,349 10,890 6,202 8,538 11,719

2001 5,343 16,030 3,914 11,743 37,031 10,798 6,149 8,465 11,620

2002 5,596 16,787 4,099 12,298 38,780 11,307 6,439 8,865 12,168

2003 5,779 17,338 4,234 12,701 40,051 11,678 6,651 9,155 12,567

2004 5,802 17,406 4,250 12,751 40,210 11,724 6,677 9,192 12,617

2005 5,871 17,613 4,301 12,902 40,687 11,863 6,756 9,301 12,767

2006 5,871 17,613 4,301 12,902 40,687 11,863 6,756 9,301 12,767

2007 5,940 17,819 4,351 13,054 41,164 12,003 6,835 9,410 12,916

2008 5,986 17,957 4,385 13,154 41,482 12,095 6,888 9,482 13,016

2009 5,986 17,957 4,385 13,154 41,482 12,095 6,888 9,482 13,016

Total New Hires 2000-2010 398,923 116,318 66,241 91,190 125,174

273,749

182,559

Total Experienced Teachers 2000-2012 216,364

Total Reentrants + New Teachers 2000-2010

New Teachers Experienced Teachers

Source of New Hires

Total New Teachers 2000-2010