Improved Observations for Disaster Reduction: 

Near-Term Opportunity Plan 

PRE-PUBLICATION September 2006 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. PREFACE.................................................................................................................................... 4

2. THE OPPORTUNITY .................................................................................................................. 4

2.1 WHY NOW?.......................................................................................................................... 5

2.2 MAJOR COMPONENTS ...................................................................................................... 6

3. GULF OF MEXICO INTEGRATED MULTI-HAZARD DEMONSTRATION PROJECT ............ 8

3.1 EXISTING COMPONENTS................................................................................................... 8

3.2 ADDITIONAL COMPONENTS REQUIRED......................................................................... 8

4. PACIFIC STATES INTEGRATED MULTI-HAZARD DEMONSTRATION PROJECT.............. 9

4.1 EXISTING COMPONENTS................................................................................................. 10

4.2 ADDITIONAL COMPONENTS REQUIRED....................................................................... 10

5. INTEGRATED EARTHQUAKE OBSERVATION SYSTEM .................................................... 10

5.1 EXISTING COMPONENTS................................................................................................. 11

5.2 ADDITIONAL COMPONENTS REQUIRED....................................................................... 11

6. INTEGRATED COASTAL INUNDATION OBSERVATION SYSTEM...................................... 12

6.1 EXISTING COMPONENTS................................................................................................. 12

6.2 ADDITIONAL COMPONENTS REQUIRED....................................................................... 12

7. NEXT STEPS ............................................................................................................................ 13

7.1 WILDLAND FIRES ............................................................................................................. 13

7.2 NEXT-GENERATION GEODETIC NETWORK.................................................................. 14

APPENDIX A: NATIONAL VOLCANO EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS AND 

GAPS............................................................................................................................................. 15

APPENDIX B: INTEGRATED EARTHQUAKE OBSERVATION SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS 

AND GAPS.................................................................................................................................... 16

APPENDIX C: INTEGRATED COASTAL INUNDATION OBSERVATION SYSTEM 

REQUIREMENTS AND GAPS...................................................................................................... 17

APPENDIX D: ABOUT THE NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL’S U.S. 

GROUP ON EARTH OBSERVATIONS/SUBCOMMITTEE ON DISASTER REDUCTION TASK 

GROUP ON IMPROVED OBSERVATIONS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION NEAR-TERM 

OPPORTUNITIES ......................................................................................................................... 18
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1. PREFACE 

This plan was prepared jointly by the U.S. Group on Earth Observations1 and Subcommittee on Disaster 

Reduction2 and is one of six near-term opportunities identified in the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Integrated Earth 

Observation System.3

 Near-term opportunities in this context are: identifying observing systems or integration of 

components that meet high priority societal needs, are making improvements to inadequate existing systems 

that can be completed within 5 years and have tangible, measurable results. Further, the plans provide a 

framework for prioritizing actions and addressing critical gaps that will maximize the return on investments. 

The near-term opportunities are: 

 Improved Observations for Disaster Warnings (published September 2006); 

 Global Land Observation System (in development); 

 Sea Level Observation System (in development); 

 National Integrated Drought Information System (published September 2006); 

 Air Quality Assessment and Forecast System (published September 2006); and 

 Architecture and Data Management (in development). 

2. THE OPPORTUNITY 

Observations are integral to reducing losses from natural hazards and improving resilience by producing 

information that is needed throughout the disaster cycle: from forecasts and warnings to facilitating pre-event 

deployment and rapid response. These vital data are also required to support the longer-term processes of 

mitigation, land-use planning, recovery, and rebuilding. 

In order to emphasize the need for earth observation systems to fit within an integrated, end-to-end, disaster 

reduction framework, multi-hazard demonstration projects are proposed for two regions at high risk: the 

Pacific states and the Gulf of Mexico coast. These projects are a means to show rapid progress with modest 

investments, thereby demonstrating proof of concept with benchmarks for success in areas vulnerable to 

catastrophic natural hazard events. Figure 1 illustrates the observation systems that will be brought to bear in 

the demonstration projects to deliver the following products and services: 

 Real-time earthquake information delivery for targeting rapid emergency response; 

 Improved tsunami and coastal inundation forecast and warning capability; 

 Rapid detection of conditions allowing forecasting of volcanic eruptions, especially ash-forming 

events endangering aviation; and 

 Prototype early warning system for debris flows and landslides in wildfire-impacted areas. 

These observation systems were identified as key gaps in the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS) 

planning process: 

 Ground-based networks have consistently been identified as either not extensive enough or in danger 

of serious deterioration over the next decade. Although new technology is available to improve 

observation capabilities for hazard loss reduction, the challenge is to deploy these systems to provide 

systematic, widespread coverage for regions with significant risk. 

 High-resolution digital topography emerges as a key unmet need for many hazards. The most widely 

cited inadequacy in satellite data is lack of access to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to provide 

all-weather day/night imaging, monitor surface deformation, and determine inundation extent. 

In addition to the multi-hazard demonstration projects, the near-term opportunity emphasizes the need for 

integrated earthquake and coastal inundation observation systems to close these gaps nationwide. A final 

section on Next Steps identifies longer-term opportunities in wildland fire assessment and the next-generation 

geodetic network, calling for near-term progress in planning to take advantage of future opportunities. 

 

1 The United States Group on Earth Observations (USGEO) was established in March 2005 as a standing subcommittee of the National

Science and Technology Council Committee on Environment and Natural Resources. 2 Chartered in 1988, the Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction is a subcommittee of the Committee on Environment and Natural 

Resources, an element of the President’s National Science and Technology Council. 

3 http://usgeo.gov/docs/EOCStrategic_Plan.pdf 
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The multi-hazard observation system 

opportunities include integration of 

existing data management systems across 

regional, multi-agency, multi-state as well 

as multi-hazard data systems for access. 

These projects will work together to 

provide interoperability, common 

metadata, and consistent data policy to 

ensure the robust data management 

capabilities and requirements needed for 

successful demonstration. 

The principal agencies involved in this 

NTO are the National Aeronautics and 

Space Administration (NASA), the 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration (NOAA), the National 

Science Foundation (NSF), and the U.S. 

Geological Survey (USGS). The ultimate 

ability of hazard observation systems to 

deliver any societal benefit depends on 

close cooperation with the Federal 

Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and its state and local counterparts. Other participating agencies 

include the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and U.S. 

Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS). 

2.1 Why Now? 

From the Indian Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico, we are continually reminded of both the tragedy and the widespread economic consequences of low-probability but high-risk extreme events. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita 

demonstrated this in all-too-graphic terms, with more than a thousand dead4 and millions more displaced from 

their homes,5 the most since the U.S. Civil War.6 These high-risk disasters devastate local lives and economies. 

They also produce a significant strain on the public treasury. Katrina’s cost is estimated to rise to an excess of 

$100 billion7 and the nation’s projected Gross Domestic Product this year will be significantly reduced as a 

result of the storm.8 To cope with these costs, governments must displace other important public priorities. 

While Katrina was certainly extreme in its impacts, the risk it posed was not unique. 

Unfortunately, we cannot reduce the number of extreme events like Katrina, but we can and must reduce the 

short-term and long-term public costs associated with these events. Important steps in doing so are network 

modernization and improved system integration. These steps will provide decision-makers with improved 

forecasting, which in turn supports risk assessment, improved mitigation strategies, and rapid warnings so lives 

can be saved and disaster averted. The National Science and Technology Council’s Subcommittee on Disaster 

Reduction June 2005 report, Grand Challenges in Disaster Reduction, identifies six themes in moving towards a 

disaster resilient society. Implementing the Near-Term Opportunities identified in this document will make 

substantial progress on the first three: 

1. Provide hazard and disaster information where and when it is needed; 

2. Understand the natural processes that produce hazards; and 

3. Develop hazard mitigation strategies and technologies. 

 

4 CNN, “Katrina’s Official Death Toll Tops 1,000,” September 21, 2005. 

5 New York Times, “Miles of Traffic as Texans Heed Order to Leave,” September 23, 2005; ABC News, “Life’s OK – ‘But it’s Not New

Orleans,” February 26, 2006 

6 National Science Teachers Association WebNews Digest, “Educators Respond to Teaching Crisis Caused by Recent Hurricanes;” November 2, 

2005. 

7 Washington Post, “Two-Thirds of Katrina Donations Exhausted;” February 27, 2006. 8 BusinessWeek Online, “Katrina’s ‘Unique’ Economic Impact,” September 7, 2005. 

Figure 1. Integrated multi-hazard demonstration projects 
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Earthquakes represent the largest single potential source for casualties and damage from a natural hazard in 

the United States. The Indian Ocean disaster underscored U.S. vulnerability to earthquakes of similar size along 

the coast of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, and brought home the risk posed by infrequent but catastrophic 

events. The $40 billion cost of the magnitude-6.7 Northridge earthquake in 1994 demonstrated the impact that 

a considerably smaller event can have on an urban area.9

Coastal inundation due to tsunamis and severe storms, including hurricanes, is a leading cause of public 

(i.e., National Flood Insurance Program) and private casualty insurance losses in the United States. The 

December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2004 Atlantic tropical storm season (insured loses more than $22 

billion in 16 states and Puerto Rico, affecting nearly 2.5 million policyholders),10 and the flooding of New 

Orleans from Katrina merely serve to underscore the severity of these events and their effects on lives, the 

economy, and the environment. 

Volcanoes The United States is also one of the most volcanically active countries in the world. 

Approximately 103 U.S. volcanoes pose moderate or greater threats to people, property, and infrastructure on 

the ground, and to jet aircraft in the air.11 Increasing air transport in the northern Pacific region, plus 

expanding population and infrastructure, mean that our exposure to volcanic hazards is increasing. 

Landslides and subsidence affect every sState, causing more than $1 billion worth of damage and more 

than 25 deaths each year,12 as well as threatening critical infrastructure and housing. An additional complication 

from wildfires, which can cause devastation over vast areas of land, is their effect on slope stability. On 

December 25, 2003, flooding and debris flows from recently burned hillslopes in California resulted in the 

death of 16 people, and damages totaling $26.5 million for road repair and other flood damage clean-up and 

reconstruction areas, including the removal of 4.1 million cubic meters of material deposited in debris-retention 

basins.13

In addition to humanitarian concerns, international disasters also adversely impact the U.S. economy by 

disrupting production and supply. These effects are felt with increasing speed and severity due to globalization. 

The development of effective warning systems for disaster reduction in the United States also will function to 

help our economy become more resilient to disasters abroad. 

2.2 Major Components 

Delivering the products and services identified for this near-term opportunity will require the integration of 

several existing and proposed systems. Integration is facilitated by the fact that individual components of the 

observing system service multiple hazards. Table 1 identifies the hardware components, data management 

capabilities and requirements, and associated modeling capabilities and requirements needed. These 

components contribute to integrated systems for earthquakes, tsunami and coastal inundation, volcanoes, and a 

prototype system for debris flows. The list also includes those components required to ensure interoperability 

and hardening of communications and warning systems, critical factors for systems to successfully meet their 

intended mission goals, as graphically demonstrated by the communications failures associated with Hurricane 

Katrina. Finally, the table notes those components that provide consistency in how information is 

communicated, recognizing the importance of delivering hazard information in a manner that has maximum 

utility for first-responders and others on the front lines of disaster management. 

In order to integrate the data, information, and tools needed for emergency managers and other key customers, 

a portal will be established, making use of existing systems where possible. When it comes to hazards, 

emergency managers will be on the front lines and must have the capabilities at hand to provide information 

where and when it is needed. This portal will provide an Internet window into essential information, service, 

and application assets. 

 

9 PBS, “Savage Earth: Learning from Earthquakes” 10 http://www.nbc6.net/weather/3766401/detail.html 

11 Simkin, T. and Siebert, L., Volcanoes of the World; Geoscience Press, Inc., Tucson Arizona 12 http://landslides.usgs.gov/ 

13Hungr, O. and Jacob, M. Debris-Flow Hazards and Related Phenomena, Spring-Praxis Books in Geophysical Sciences, p. 321-344. 
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Products and Services

Major Components 

Rapid earthquake information delivery for improved response Enhance tsunami and coastal inundation forecast and warning capability Rapid detection of volcanic eruptions , especially ash-forming events affecting aviation Prototype debris-flow early warning system for wildfireimpacted areas. Ensure interoperability and hardening of communication and warning systems Provide consistency in how information is communicated 

Hardware components 

Improved array of deep-ocean tsunami detectors; coastal 

ocean buoys; coastal tide, water-level, and stream gauges 

feeding real-time data into online forecast models 

 X X X 

Modernized, real-time seismic network infrastructure X X X X X 

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) satellite 

targeted for land deformation X X X X 

Develop and deploy airborne repeat-pass InSAR capability to 

monitor seismic/volcanic targets and inundation events X X X X 

Continuity of moderate-resolution imaging capabilities X X X 

Dense streamflow and precipitation gauge deployment in 

burned areas for monitoring debris-flow conditions 

 X 

Integrated, real-time observation capabilities for high-threat 

volcanoes (continuous strain recording, explosion detection, 

gas sensors, acoustic lahar detectors) 

 X X X 

Upgrade/modernize geodetic (GPS and reference) networks 

to provide integrated and systematic performance X X X X X X 

Surveys and mapping for high-resolution topography and 

shallow bathymetry X X X X 

Robust, broadband telemetry and data transmission 

infrastructure X X X X X 

Data management capabilities and requirements

Collaborative international operations. Enhanced use of 

international observing capabilities to supplement U.S. 

satellites. Enhancement of International Charter on Disasters 

to encourage pre-event monitoring of hazards (e.g. restless 

volcanoes) for which there are precursory signals 

X X X X X 

Implementation of applicable data exchange mechanisms and 

standards among all regional, national and global all-hazard 

warning systems. Participation in the Common Alerting 

Protocol (CAP) 

X X X X X X 

Multi-hazard SAR/InSAR data management and processing 

system with automation 

X X X X X 

Apply GIS-based and other Decision Support System formats 

with appropriate reference datums for forecasts and warnings X X X X X X 

Ensure adequate archiving systems in place to ensure 

continued utility of observation data X X X X X 

Associated modeling capabilities and requirements

Develop community-level models for risk and vulnerability 

assessments X X X X X 

Develop improved models for interpretation of surface 

deformation to better constrain characterization of 

geophysical processes 

X X X X 

Table 1. Major components required for NTO products and services 
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3. GULF OF MEXICO INTEGRATED MULTI-HAZARD DEMONSTRATION PROJECT 

The Gulf of Mexico region is particularly vulnerable to the devastating impacts of coastal inundation, whether 

seismic or meteorological. Tsunami-related inundation is a concern, with possible slumping of the Puerto Rico 

Trench in the Atlantic Ocean affecting the Caribbean and Florida as well as the south Atlantic, and possible 

secondary impacts in the Gulf region. Hurricane Katrina’s record 28-foot storm surge14 and widespread 

catastrophic flooding underscore the vulnerability of this low-lying region to inundation, whether seismic or 

meteorological. The region’s critical coastal infrastructure (oil and gas platforms and refineries [1.5 million 

barrels produced per day]15 ports, hospitals, etc.) is extremely vulnerable to these impacts. FY2004 and 2005 

were extremely active years for coastal flooding. 

The President’s Ocean Action Plan (OAP) calls for an effort led by the National Science and Technology 

Council Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology to coordinate Federal and Federally-supported 

mapping activities for the U.S. coastal and ocean environment. The OAP calls for establishing the Global 

Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the U.S. coastal component, the Integrated Ocean 

Observing System (IOOS). The OAP also calls for a special interagency partnership with the governors of the 

five Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX) states (Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida). Given these 

priorities and the region’s vulnerabilities, GOMEX is the most appropriate regional demonstration site for the 

effective updating and linking of Coastal Digital Elevation Models with coastal observing systems. 

By integrating and utilizing multi-hazard observing systems, decision-makers will be better informed and 

prepared to handle potential disasters. The GOMEX project will demonstrate the efficacy and viability of 

multi-hazard observing systems, including enhancing the network of elevation benchmarks (i.e. Continuously 

Operating Reference System (CORS), coordinating shallow water bathymetric surveys (e.g. Light Detection and 

Ranging, or LiDAR), and developing storm surge and flooding models using existing and new data and 

observations in high risk areas. 

3.1 Existing Components 

In Fiscal Year (FY) 2005, NOAA undertook a needs assessment to understand the requirements of 

interoperable observations, models, and decision support tools to improve storm-related planning, response, 

and recovery in northern GOMEX. Program and budget partners include USGS, Department of Interior 

Minerals Management Service, FEMA, USACE, and EPA. The FY 2006 budget for the IOOS broadens the 

focus on accelerating coastal inundation forecasting, buoy system improvements, next generation storm surge 

model development, and data transformation tool development for the Gulf of Mexico. This will include 

leveraging USGS investments in stream gauge enhancements, as well as USACE wave gauge installations in the 

Gulf of Mexico region. 

3.2 Additional Components Required 

An all-hazards approach will be undertaken through regional and product expansion of the application of 

interoperable observations, models, and decision-support tools to improve planning, response, and recovery. 

This expansion will include: 

 NOAA’s Coasts, Estuaries, and Oceans (CEO) and MTS programs enhancement of the buoy, CMAN and water-level station networks in the FY 2007 – 2011 timeframe; 

 NOAA intends to develop a GOMEX Coastal Hazards Information Center to leverage the geospatial 

capabilities within the region and facilitate the extension of coastal hazards planning and mitigation; 

 NOAA’s Coastal Storms Program will begin a regional demonstration that will provide enhanced 

observations, inundation models, and decision-support tools to aid in coastal hazards forecasting, 

planning and mitigation; 

 USGS is proposing vulnerability assessments of hurricane-threatened U.S. coasts to different 

hurricane types and intensities; and 

 Increased coastal LiDAR surveying – a joint effort by NOAA, USGS, NASA and USACE. 

 

14 http://www.magazine.noaa.gov/stories/mag178.htm 15 http://api-ec.api.org/media/index.cfm?objectid=134704E4-9EF8-4392-

A41CC2E202D8FC61&method=display_body&er=1&bitmask=001007006000000000 
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4. PACIFIC STATES INTEGRATED MULTI-HAZARD DEMONSTRATION PROJECT 

The states bordering the Pacific Ocean face the full range of natural hazards targeted in this near-term 

opportunity. Demonstration projects will focus initially on southern California and the Pacific Northwest but 

with clear applicability to the rest of this restless region. 

For FY 2007, a multi-hazard demonstration project is being proposed in southern California to integrate 

information with products about several hazards to improve the usefulness of the information in reducing 

losses. Southern California represents half the earthquake risk in the United States, with numerous faults 

capable of generating losses topping a quarter trillion dollars; but it also is at risk for flash floods, wildfires and 

resulting debris flows, and coastal hazards including vulnerability to tsunamis. Scientists at USGS and Federal 

partner agencies, particularly NOAA and FEMA, will work with emergency managers and the public to 

develop the integrated information products that individuals need to prepare for and recover from natural 

disasters. This will be accomplished by merging information and products about disparate hazards into 

decision-support products that are more user-friendly and support land-use planning, hazards mitigation, 

emergency response, and business recovery. This project is intended to be a model for future efforts in other 

regions. 

As a key part of this project, USGS and NOAA will cooperatively develop and operate a prototype flash flood 

and debris-flow warning system for burned areas within southern California. The prototype initially will utilize 

the National Weather Service Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction operational framework for 

meteorological data analyses, comparison with rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, and information and 

warning dissemination. The system also will include a new capability to provide map results on a publicly 

available risk-assessment and early warning website, updated throughout significant storm events. 

Tsunamis are also a concern for southern California, particularly the need for adequate warning in this heavily 

populated region. The NOAA Coastal Storms Program (CSP) makes inundation and flooding products a 

major focus. The CSP southern California effort began in 2005 and is funding development of datum 

transformations for the region. Products should be available by 2008. 

The Pacific Northwest is home to some of the highest-threat volcanoes in the nation and represents a nearterm opportunity to demonstrate the value of strengthening integrated observation capabilities to address that 

threat. The re-awakening of Mt. St. Helens in September 2004 was a reminder of the awesome power of 

volcanic eruptions, their potential to devastate adjacent areas, and to threaten aviation. Where monitoring 

instruments and methods are in place at a hazardous volcano in advance of the onset of unrest, communities at risk 

can be forewarned with sufficient time and information to undertake mitigation measures. 

In April 2005, the USGS released a report (USGS Open-File Report 2005-1164) that systematically assessed the 

relative threat posed by all young volcanic centers in the U.S. and its territories to set priorities for the greatest 

improvement in public safety. The report identified 103 U.S. volcanoes as posing high to moderate threats to 

life and property and called for establishing a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) to address 

serious monitoring gaps and bring high-threat volcanoes up to a level of monitoring commensurate with the 

threats they pose. Seven of the ten highest threat volcanoes are located in the Pacific Northwest, and all of 

them have significant observation gaps that must be considered when deciding whether to provide some 

monitoring at lower threat volcanoes. The seven include Mt. St. Helens (WA), Rainier (WA), Hood (OR), 

Shasta (CA), South Sister (OR), Lassen (CA), and Crater Lake (OR). Although of lesser threat, it may also be 

important to monitor Baker (WA) and Glacier Peak (WA). 

The NVEWS report primarily evaluates the need for in situ (seismic, deformation, gas, hydrologic) monitoring, 

but also indicates where remote-sensing support is needed. Testing models of volcanic behavior and making 

reliable forecasts of events requires an integrated observation system including GPS, digital broadband 

seismometers, digital telemetry, the Internet, InSAR, and a new suite of physico-chemical sensors. Table 2 in 

the Appendix focuses specifically on filling the gaps to enable rapid detection of volcanic eruptions and ashforming events endangering aviation. 
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4.1 Existing Components 

The southern California component of this demonstration project builds on existing dense seismic and 

geodetic networks in the region supported by USGS, NSF, NASA and the State of California. The USGS and 

its partners operate the California Integrated Seismic Network, the Southern California Integrated GPS 

Network, and a flood-monitoring system. Reimbursable funding from USFS funded studies of the ecologic 

impacts of the 2003 fires. USGS recently acquired a LiDAR dataset of the southern San Andreas fault in 

partnership with NASA. The project also takes advantage of an extensive earthquake modeling 

cyberinfrastructure through the Southern California Earthquake Center, a university consortium jointly 

supported by NSF and USGS. 

Responsibility for monitoring volcanic unrest and activity in the United States rests largely with the Volcano 

Hazards Program of the USGS. Tracking of volcanic ash and aerosol clouds is conducted by NOAA in 

cooperation with the USGS, with the Washington and Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) 

having primary responsibility for issuing warnings to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Recent 

efforts by the USGS have expanded monitoring networks, especially in the Aleutian Islands, so that 50 

volcanoes now are tracked by monitoring networks. However, there still are many volcanoes where monitoring 

is either lacking or suboptimal. Also, responsibility for these networks is dispersed among five volcano 

observatories, and the existing networks are not fully integrated at the national level. 

4.2 Additional Components Required 

As with the Gulf of Mexico project, an all-hazards approach will be undertaken, to include: 

 Improved streamgauge and precipitation alert sensors for a prototype flash flood and debris flow 

warning system for burned areas within southern California; 

 An integrated GIS system developed by USGS in cooperation with emergency managers of FEMA, 

OES, and the counties to make their science more useful; 

 Tools that local and state emergency managers can layer in their own GIS systems to map hazards to 

their facilities; 

 Modern seismic and geodetic networks in southern California to conduct focused hazard 

characterization efforts on the southern San Andreas Fault; 

 NOAA and USGS inundation and flooding models and products for southern California; and 

 Expanded USGS volcano monitoring networks in the Pacific Northwest, as laid out in the NVEWS 

report; including interferometric SAR as a means of monitoring deformation at dormant volcanoes, 

even in the absence of in situ (GPS) networks. 

5. INTEGRATED EARTHQUAKE OBSERVATION SYSTEM 

By improving our ability to assess, monitor, and rapidly respond to earthquakes, a well-designed, integrated 

Earth observation system can help reduce the severity of the impact from these events. Recent improvements 

in hardware and software technology have greatly increased the capabilities of seismic monitoring networks to 

deliver real-time earthquake information as well as the capabilities of ground and satellite-based deformation 

monitoring systems such as GPS networks, InSAR and the increasing ability to produce and use highresolution digital topography derived from LiDAR or SAR imagery. The need for a dedicated InSAR to 

monitor surface deformation has been widely recognized and was deemed an essential component of 

EarthScope by the National Research Council (NRC). 

Dedicated InSAR also is the highest priority mission recommended by NASA’s Solid Earth Science Working 

Group in Living on a Restless Planet and in the review of that finding by the NRC. The recent interim report of 

the NRC Decadal Survey also encourages progress towards a SAR/InSAR capability. The observational 

requirements for all the geohazards, including earthquakes, were reviewed as part of the development of the 

IEOS, and are summarized in the technical reference document that will be posted on the SDR website 

(www.sdr.gov). Table 3 in the Appendix shows the critical gaps that remain to be filled in order to effectively 

deliver real-time earthquake information for targeting rapid emergency response. 
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5.1 Existing Components 

The 2000 reauthorization of the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) 

tasked the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) to modernize and strengthen seismic monitoring in the 

United States. This initiative, begun in 2002 and 10 percent complete, is improving the performance and 

integration of the national and regional seismic monitoring networks, with a particular focus on dense networks 

of urban stations capable of monitoring strong motion both on the ground and in structures. These dense 

networks enable rapid deployment of ShakeMaps portraying the extent of potentially damaging ground motion 

following an earthquake. ShakeMaps are generated and served via the Internet within minutes of the 

earthquake, and are used primarily for emergency response, loss estimation, and public information. 

USGS is also working with the NSF EarthScope facility to expand the ANSS backbone network to strengthen 

coast-to-coast earthquake detection. In FY 2005-2006, NSF is funded 17 new ANSS backbone stations and 

eight station upgrades. This national backbone provides a stable reference for EarthScope’s rolling deployment 

of 400 seismographic stations in stripes across the United States from west to east, combined with a 

deployment of portable seismic arrays for targeted research projects. Each deployment will last for 

approximately one year, and then the stations will be removed and re-deployed to the east. The unprecedented 

density of the deployments will bring a great deal of new data and information about the Earth’s structure. 

As part of the President’s tsunami initiative, USGS seismic systems and operations will provide more robust 

detection and notification of earthquakes that could trigger tsunamis. USGS is conducting this effort in 

partnership with NOAA. The software and hardware capabilities of the National Earthquake Information 

Center, the ANSS nerve center, will be upgraded as will telemetry for the Global Seismographic Network 

(GSN) in partnership with NSF. Through GSN, USGS also will install new seismic stations in the Caribbean 

region, complementing NOAA’s deployment of Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) 

buoys for rapid tsunami detection and warning. 

Geodetic networks provide essential information about movement of the land surface near faults and 

earthquake source zones. NASA, NSF and USGS work with universities and local agencies to conduct geodetic 

investigations using GPS and laser-ranging surveys. A dense network of continuous GPS stations has been 

installed in southern California in a cooperative effort by the NASA, NSF, USGS, and U.C. San Diego to 

determine the distribution of long-term crustal deformation and the spatial and temporal variations of the 

strain field. Beginning in FY 2005 and continuing through the duration of this NTO, the Plate Boundary 

Observatory (PBO) component of NSF’s Earthscope facility will expand geodetic networks along the U.S. 

West Coast’s active plate boundary. 

Imaging the spatial distribution of surface deformation is revolutionizing our understanding of Earth processes 

that can lead to hazards and is an essential complement to the in situ networks. Research efforts supported by 

NASA, USGS and NSF using limited quantities of C-band SAR data from international missions (Radarsat-1 

and Envisat ASAR) document the potential of a dedicated L-band InSAR to better understand and monitor 

seismic hazards as well as to evaluate damage after an event. NASA has an airborne repeat-pass InSAR 

capability under development (confirmation review in November 2005) that could be used to monitor selective 

areas. 

5.2 Additional Components Required 

ANSS plans call for the addition of 6,000 new seismic monitoring instruments in more than 25 urban centers; 

3,000 of these would be deployed in reference sites (i.e., ground-based), and an additional 3,000 in structures. 

Implementation of ANSS also will result in improved integration of existing networks and the replacement of 

obsolete equipment at 1,000 stations in regional networks across the country. 

NASA, NSF and USGS are investigating the potential of InSAR to quickly and accurately provide wide-area 

views of pre- and post-earthquake land deformation. Work is under way to develop computational tools 

necessary to efficiently analyze, interpret, and model InSAR data and to assimilate InSAR data into geophysical 

models. InSAR results in southern California will be used to augment, check, and, if necessary, correct the 

independent GPS measurements. When completed, the airborne repeat-pass InSAR could provide monitoring 
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of selected seismic zones and a local rapid-response capability. The principal limitation of SAR data is the lack 

of continual and affordable satellite data to provide systematic observations of surface deformation. Preformulation concepts for such a system have been developed by NASA, NSF and USGS and show that it could 

be developed in 4 to 5 years. 

6. INTEGRATED COASTAL INUNDATION OBSERVATION SYSTEM 

For the United States to be adequately prepared for all forms of coastal inundation, communities must have 

timely focused data, forecasts, and decision-support tools. A concerted effort must be made to deploy effective 

warning systems, respond quickly, implement necessary mitigation measures, and increase public capabilities. 

More importantly, an all-hazards approach must be taken to ensure coastal communities are more resilient. 

Increased densification of tsunami and other related coastal observations (both in situ and remotely sensed) are 

needed to drive and enhance an integrated system of models, inundation and evacuation map applications, and 

other decision-support tools. This includes the need for interoperable high-resolution data (e.g., highresolution coastal bathymetry and topography) on which tsunami and surge elevations can be overlaid using 

vertical datum transformation tools (VDatum). Table 4 in the Appendix identifies the observations needed to 

deliver improved tsunami and coastal inundation forecast and warning capability. An enhanced stream of 

SAR/InSAR data will improve our ability to evaluate the subsidence component of local sea-level rise and 

provide timely observations of inundation extent both day/night and independent of cloud-cover that is 

commonly associated with flooding events. 

6.1 Existing Components 

Detecting and effectively responding to coastal inundation is critical to mitigating its effects. USGS and NSF 

have global, national- and regional-scale seismic monitoring networks to detect seismic activity with the six 

currently deployed DART buoys providing information on whether the activity has the potential to cause a 

tsunami. The National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) provides near-shore water level 

observations for tsunamis and storm inundation. Information from these systems is monitored and assessed 

by the Tsunami Warning Centers and the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, which then 

disseminate the information through standard procedures and communications between USGS, NOAA, and 

FEMA, to Primary and Alternate State Warning Points that react based on the information. 

NOAA also has been working with Ocean.US to develop the IOOS Regional Associations. These regional 

observing systems offer a higher resolution capability than Federal systems alone can provide. Many regions 

have a variety of off- and on-shore monitoring systems that already supply valuable coastal meteorological 

information to the Global Telecommunications System (30 percent of what the National Data Buoy System 

feeds to the Global Telecommunications System is coming from these regional observing systems). 

6.2 Additional Components Required 

The United States has a good coastal hazard mitigation network but there are areas in need of improvement. 

The DART buoy array should be increased to 39 buoys, with seven of those in the Atlantic and Caribbean. 

Installation must be completed on the 49 coastal sea-level monitoring stations. Additionally, forecast models 

must continue to be improved and modeling for inundation maps should be completed. An increase in the 

availability of timely and accurate seismic data through expansion of seismic coverage in the Caribbean, 

additional telemetry and maintenance for the Global Seismographic Network, and modernization and 

completion of regional seismic networks in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington is necessary. 

For more accurate flood forecasts and warnings, the USGS Stream Gauge Network must be expanded and 

modernized to sufficiently meet decision-maker needs for information on streamflow and levels. In addition, 

decision-makers need higher resolution shallow water bathymetry and coastal topographic mapping in coastal 

counties and watersheds. Without them, there are insufficient resources to accurately predict floods and warn 

at-risk populations, putting more people in danger. For coastal regions outside the United States, the 30-m 

Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital topography should be made publicly available to improve run-up 

models. 
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For the data to be used effectively, the Tsunami Warning Centers and USGS National Earthquake Information 

Center must attain and maintain robust 24/7 operations. Existing information dissemination systems such as 

Emergency Managers Weather Information Network and Radio and InterNET Communications 

Meteorological and Climate Information should be expanded and their use incorporated into an evacuation 

notification system. 

The conceptual L-band InSAR for surface deformation could also satisfy several of NOAA’s observational 

needs applicable to tsunamis and coastal inundation, and serve as a prototype U.S. operational SAR satellite. 

The surface deformation observations will improve our knowledge of the location, extent and severity of 

regional and local subsidence related to fluid withdrawal and compaction of sediments. SAR data also will 

provide all-weather and day/night imaging capabilities for monitoring inundation and for the detection and 

tracking of oil spills and leaks from vulnerable coastal and off-shore infrastructure. If NASA, NSF, and USGS 

decide to develop such a mission, NOAA plans to request funds beginning in FY 2008 to support enhanced 

capabilities that meet its requirements. 

7. NEXT STEPS 

In the course of developing this near-term opportunity, it is clear that there are related hazards that would 

benefit from a concerted effort to strengthen earth observation capabilities – in particular wildland fires. It is 

also clear that even as progress is made on the specific observation capabilities identified in the near-term 

opportunity, it is crucial that planning move forward to take advantage of longer-term opportunities that 

require considerable lead time, as is the case for a next-generation geodetic network. 

7.1 Wildland Fires 

Wildland fires continue to be a costly and destructive force in the United States. The 10-year average annual 

cost for suppression of wildland fires by Federal agencies is nearly $1 billion. Continued development adjacent 

to forest and rangeland not only results in a greater number of fire starts, but also increases the need to protect 

more property from the devastating effects of fire. Better earth observation capabilities can assist with wildland 

fire suppression by improving strategic and tactical allocation of firefighting resources and can assist with 

prevention of potential fire disasters through improved mitigation and landscape management strategies. 

Improved monitoring and mapping of wildland fires, fire impacts, hazardous fuels, and land cover change is an 

important set of products and services that can be delivered through advancements in earth observations and 

their application to wildland fire suppression and mitigation efforts. 

The best potential for reducing the damaging effects of wildland fires on communities and ecosystems, and for 

long-term reduction in the cost of wildfire suppression, rest in accurate monitoring, mapping, and modeling of 

fuels, fire hazard, and fire effects across the landscape. This information is critical input for models of fire 

behavior, emissions, post-fire erosion and flooding, and assessment of other impacts. There are currently a 

number of observation and monitoring programs in place or being developed for meeting these information 

needs. For example, the USDA Forest Service and the Department of Interior, along with other collaborators, 

are developing LANDFIRE (also known as the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools 

Project), which will produce nationwide maps of vegetation, fuels, and other biophysical characteristics to 

model potential fire behavior conditions. They also recently agreed to implement a nationwide program to 

map the geographic extent and burn severity of both past and future fire areas. Both of these programs rely 

heavily on data from LANDSAT satellites for successful execution. 

Gaps in such long-term and technically consistent data from U.S. satellites will endanger our future capability 

to develop, update, and use this critical information; or require the information to be purchased at great cost 

from other countries if international data-sharing agreements are not developed. In addition, currently 

approved monitoring programs for fire and fuels do not enable land management agencies to monitor the 

structure of the fuels, which is one of the most critical determinants of fire behavior. Emerging remote 

sensing-based monitoring programs, however, will map estimated fuel structure using a series of models. As a 

result, leveraging remote sensing assets for mapping fuel structure on a landscape level would greatly improve 

our predictive capabilities for identifying fuel hazard areas that require treatment to prevent catastrophic fires. 

Active remote sensing technologies such as multi-return LIDAR and InSAR show great potential for such 

applications. 
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Another next-step opportunity exists for improving wildland fire detection and monitoring capabilities for 

future sensors. For example, the current design of the Visible Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) 

sensor, scheduled to fly on-board the National Polar-orbiting Operation Environmental Satellite System series 

of satellites, has limitations for hot-target detection and characterization. The current technical specifications 

of the VIIRS long-wave infrared band emphasize characterization of relatively cold temperatures associated 

with sea surface temperature and atmospheric measurements. Consequently, unlike the Moderate Resolution 

Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor currently aboard NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites, the VIIRS instrument 

will suffer in its ability to detect and measure wildland fire characteristics because of the relatively low 

saturation threshold. Additionally, there is a concern that false detection information will arise. A solution is 

needed that will benefit the atmospheric and meteorological community as well as research and operational 

applications for wildland fire and other thermal anomalies. 

It should be possible to devise and implement economical solutions to these problems in time for future 

launches of VIIRS and other space-based thermal imaging sensors. Additional work also is needed to enhance 

geostationary as well as low-earth-orbiting satellites. Improved spatial and spectral resolution of geostationary 

sensors and greater re-visit times for orbiting sensors are highly desirable features, and any improvements in 

these areas would help to supplement existing airborne and ground-based observations. 

7.2 Next-Generation Geodetic Network 

Space Geodesy provides the most accurate global topography and provides spectacular images of earthquake 

deformation Geodetic GPS has become a critical tool for mapping volcanic inflation, tectonic-driven surface 

deformation, and other geohazard processes. Unfortunately, the diminishing state of the global geodetic 

network places long-term comparability and deformation measurements at great risk. Delivering accurate 

figures on a global basis will require a reference frame at least 10 times more accurate than the current one. The 

international space agencies and geodetic institutions are charting strategy for the development of the Next 

Generation Geodetic Network. Total cost of this network is likely to exceed $200 million, but international 

leveraging could significantly reduce cost to the United States. GEOSS could play a significant role here. 

Planning needs to begin now for a formulation phase and an implementation phase if these capabilities are to 

be available in a reasonable timeframe. 
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APPENDIX A: NATIONAL VOLCANO EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS AND GAPS

 

Required Observations Existing Systems Filling the Gaps

Characterize seismicity of volcano(es) 

or group of volcanoes (magnitude, 3-D 

location, type of earthquake) to locate 

quakes to magnitude <0.5; data relayed 

and processed in real time 

Seismic networks at many individual 

volcanoes plus some regional 

networks 

Many high-threat volcanoes 

unmonitored or under-monitored. 

Upgrades (additional short period, 

3-component, and broadband 

seismometers) needed at all 

volcanoes with minimal or no 

seismic networks 

Monitor deformation of volcanic 

edifice (horizontal, vertical and tilt) 

GPS networks and/or EDM, 

leveling and tilt monitoring 

networks 

Borehole strainmeters 

SAR interferometry 

Most high-threat volcanoes are 

not actively monitored for 

deformation. 

C-band SAR data stream 

inadequate to monitor all 

volcanoes of interest; L-band 

SAR/InSAR completely lacking 

Characterize gas emissions of 

volcano(es) by species (SO2 and CO2) 

and flux (near-surface or tropospheric 

plumes) 

COSPEC, LICOR surveys at regular 

intervals – fixed stations, truck, or 

aircraft-mounted 

Satellite imagery with appropriate 

bands (IR) at moderate resolution 

FTIR measurements, direct 

sampling of gases 

Few active volcanoes routinely 

monitored. 

Appropriate satellite imagery 

(ASTER) scarce. No successor 

mission known. UV sensors lack 

sensitivity, resolution needed. 

Characterize local thermal features of 

volcanoes (nature, number, location, 

temperature) 

Field observations, plus use of 

thermocouples, visible and IR 

pyrometers 

High-resolution IR imagery using 

digital IR cameras 

Moderate resolution airborne IR 

imagery (TIMS) 

Thermal IR bands critical for 

hazard mapping. 

Needed resolution not possible in 

most satellite imagery. 

Landsat 7 impaired; no known 

successor to ASTER doppler 

radar equipment 

Detect and monitor volcanic 

explosions, eruption columns and 

lahars 

Doppler radar (assess column 

height and density), cloud-to-cloud 

lightning detectors 

Acoustic flow monitors (lahars) 

Deployment of such equipment 

very limited 

Deployment of acoustic flow 

monitors limited 

Detect and monitor high-altitude 

volcanic ash clouds and aerosol plumes 

Meteorological satellites 

(geostationary, polar-orbiting) plus 

MODIS, TOMS and OMI 

Split-window (separate 10.5 and 

12 micron bands) needed to 

recognize ash are lacking on some 

satellites 

Acquire baseline topography of 

volcano(es) 

Aerial photography, LiDAR 

DEMs from SRTM or ASTER 

imagery 

Data still not available or not 

processed and released for many 

active volcanoes 

Make geologic and structural maps of 

volcano(es); date young deposits; 

characterize eruptive style and eruptive 

history of volcano(es) 

Field surveys, aerial photography, 

AVIRIS surveys 

Moderate or high-resolution 

multispectral imagery 

Landsat 7 impaired; no known 

successor to ASTER 
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APPENDIX B: INTEGRATED EARTHQUAKE OBSERVATION SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS AND 

GAPS

Required Observations Existing Systems Filling the Gaps 

Monitor seismicity nationwide to 

magnitude 3.0, to magnitude 2.0 in 

seismically active areas 

National and regional seismic 

networks 

Upgrade and expand through 

Advanced National Seismic System 

(ANSS) 

Monitor strong ground shaking in 

all urban areas subject to moderate 

to high earthquake risk 

Dense seismic networks with 

high dynamic range “strongmotion” sensors 

Upgrade and expand through 

urban area focus of ANSS 

Monitor response of critical 

facilities, and of typical buildings of 

different classes of construction in 

urban areas subject to moderate to 

high earthquake risk 

Seismic instruments in critical 

facilities and in typical buildings 

Upgrade and expand through 

urban area focus of ANSS 

High-resolution topographic 

mapping in seismically active areas 

LiDAR surveys or stereo aerial 

photography 

More comprehensive availability of 

LiDAR and Digital Elevation 

Models 

High-resolution deformation 

monitoring in seismically active 

areas 

Ground-based networks and 

surveys using GPS satellite 

constellation, limited C-band 

SAR imagery for InSAR 

Systematic InSAR data stream 

(particularly L-band); GPS 

networks expanded through 

EarthScope 

Strain and slow movement (creep) 

measurements along active faults 

and near fault zones 

Arrays of creep meters, 

dilatometers and tensor strain 

meters; limited C-band SAR 

imagery for InSAR 

Systematic InSAR data stream 

(particularly L-band); wider 

installation of tensor strain meters 

through EarthScope 
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APPENDIX C: INTEGRATED COASTAL INUNDATION OBSERVATION SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS 

AND GAPS

Required Observations Existing Systems Filling the Gaps

Coastal high-resolution topography Topographic LiDAR, InSAR, 

VDATUM, SRTM 

Areas lack updated highresolution topography; public 

release of international SRTM-30 

topography for coastal areas 

Shallow water bathymetry and 

navigational obstructions 

Ship surveys (e.g. multibeam) 

Bathymetric LiDAR, VDATUM 

Outdated surveys, turbid water 

bathymetry 

Deformation/subsidence Sporadic international C-band SAR Need orbital L-band InSAR 

Waves, heights and patterns, wave 

spectra 

Buoys, coastal radar, Volunteer 

Observer Ship (VOS) program 

SAR Imagery ($11.4 M in FY 2008) 

Insufficient near shore spatial 

resolution, wave height forecasts, 

and verification points. 

Tides/water levels, inundation 

patterns 

Tide gauges (NWLON), USGS river 

gauges, six Pacific DART tsunami 

sensors, VDATUM, international 

SAR data 

Outmoded water level 

measurement; inadequate stream 

and tide gauge coverage; 

enhanced SAR data stream for allweather and day/night 

monitoring of inundation 

Currents Buoys (e.g. with ADCP); coastal 

radar; radar altimeter 

Insufficient spatial resolution near 

shore 

Surface Winds (10 meter AGL) Buoys, CMAN, VOS, NWLON 

(met), PORTS, coastal ASOS. 

Scatterometer (QuickScat) + SAR 

(off-shore only) imagery 

Insufficient spatial resolution near 

shore and lack of verification 

points at Coastal Waters Forecast 

Zones. 

Seismic information for tsunamis Seismic networks, notification 

systems 

 

Post-event damage assessment Ground-based visits, photographic 

documentation, high-resolution 

satellite imagery 

 

Sea Temperature - Surface VOS, fixed Buoy, GOES Imager, 

POES Imager, PORTS, NWLON 

Limited information during 

extended periods of cloud cover 

Sea Temperature - Column ARGOS floats, fixed buoys (limited) Limited information below 10 cm 

depth. 
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APPENDIX D: ABOUT THE NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL’S U.S. GROUP 

ON EARTH OBSERVATIONS/SUBCOMMITTEE ON DISASTER REDUCTION TASK GROUP ON 

IMPROVED OBSERVATIONS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION NEAR-TERM OPPORTUNITIES

David Applegate (co-lead) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 

Margaret Davidson (co-lead) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 

Craig Dobson (co-lead) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 

Steve Ambrose NASA 

Ralph Cantral NOAA 

Sue Conard U.S. Forest Service 

Melba Crawford Department of State 

David Green NOAA 

Paul Greenfield U.S. Department of Agriculture 

Roz Helz USGS 

Brenda Jones USGS 

David Lambert National Science Foundation (NSF) 

John Lyon U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Mike Norris USGS 

Gran Paules NASA 

Paul Scholz NOAA 

Kaye Shedlock NSF 

Gene Whitney White House Office of Science and Technology Policy 

A Report of the National Science and Technology Council 

September 2006