August 16, 2005



# Final Report for the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) Regional Modeling Center (RMC) for the Project Period March 1, 2004, through February 28, 2005

WGA Contract Number: 30203

Prepared for:
Western Regional Air Partnership Western Governors’ Association 1515 Cleveland Place, Suite 200 Denver, CO 80202
Prepared by:
Gail Tonnesen, Zion Wang, Moha mmad Omary, Chao-Jung Chien Bourns College of Engineering Center for Environmental Research and

Technology (CE-CERT), Universi ty of California, Riverside 1084 Columbia Avenue, Riverside, CA 92507 http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ Ralph Morris, Gerry Mansell, Su san Kemball-Cook, Greg Yarwood ENVIRON Internati onal Corporation 101 Rowland Way, Suite 220, Novato, CA 94945 http://www.environcorp.com
Zac Adelman, Andy Holland, Kim Hanisak UNC-Chapel Hill, Carolina Environmental Program Bank of America Plaza, CB# 6116, 137 E. Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-6116 http://cf.unc.edu/cep/empdFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

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## Executive Summary

This report describes work completed for pr oject year 2004 (March 1, 2004, through February 28, 2005) at the Regional Modeling Ce nter (RMC), which comprises st aff from the University of California, the University of North Carolina, and ENVIRON Internationa l Corporation. Funding for this work was provided by the Western G overnors’ Association’ s Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP). This was the fourth year of a continuing projec t to analyze and model regional haze and visibility in th e western United States. Listed below are the titles and purposes of the tasks that were include d in the 2004 RMC work plan, whic h was developed in coordination with WRAP technical staff and the WRAP Modeling Forum.

• Task 0.5, 2002 Ammonia Emissions Inventory for WRAP Region: To review current ammonia emissions generation techniques and devel op a GIS-based ammonia emissions model.

• Task 1, Project Administration: To manage the WRAP RMC activ ities, participate in WRAP conference calls, attend WRAP meetings, and prepare project status reports.

• Task 2, Test, Improve, Quality Control, Obtain External Peer Review, and Finalize 36-km and 12-km MM5 Simulations for Eventual Use in CMAQ: To perform MM5 modeling for 2002 on the 36-km Inter-RPO continental U.S. gr id and a 12-km western U.S. WRAP grid.

• Task 3, 2002 Base Year Emissions Mode ling, Processing, and Analysis: To revise the interim 2002 inventory by integrating missing emissions sour ces; to assimilate the results of applying the new analysis tools and QA plan for improving the emissions modeling process; and to integrate the final 2002 emissi ons inventories into a base 2002 emissions data set.

• Task 4, Air Quality Model Evaluation for 2002 Annual Simulation: To test the 2002 base year air quality modeling performed with CMAQ, including a preliminary simulation using the 2002 interim emissions inventory followed by severa l iterations with bug fixes or updates.

• Task 5, Preparation and Reporting of Ge ographic Source Apportionment Results: To implement, test, and apply Tagged Species S ource Attribution PM algorithms in CMAQ.

• Task 6, Further Analysis of Model Performance in Regard to the Contribution of Natural Emissions to Visibility Impairment: To perform modeling without anthropogenic emissions to help elucidate natural ba ckground visibility levels.

• Task 7, Evaluation and Comparison of Alternative Models: To analyze altern ative models to CMAQ for 2002 modeling.

• Task 9, Testing and Further Improvements to th e Windblown Dust Emissions Modeling Methodology: To further refine and test the WRAP windblown dust model.

• Task 10, Continued Improvement to Model Evaluation Software: To continue developing model evaluation software for meteorol ogy, emissions, and air quality modeling.

• Task 11, Sensitivity Studies Designed to Eval uate Uncertainties in Fire Emissions: To perform fire sensitivity simulations as reque sted by the Fire Emissions Joint Forum.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

iii • Task 12, Preliminary Meteorological, Emissions , and Air Quality Mode ling Activities for Alaska: To perform MM5 modeling of Alaska a nd preliminary dispersion modeling using a Lagrangian puff model.

• Task 13, Training Courses for the WRAP States and Tribes: To conduct training activities as needed to transfer datase ts and technology to WRAP me mber tribes and states.
Section 1 of this report provides project back ground information. Sections 2 through 14 discuss the tasks in detail, and include li sts of project deliverab les as well as links to where they can be downloaded or viewed on the project web site, at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ . Section 15 gives concise summaries of all the tasks.
The overall goal for 2004 was to develop, quality a ssure, test, and refine all model input data required to perform simulations of visibility for calendar year 2002. Visibility was modeled on both a continental 36-km domain and a higher-res olution 12-km domain for the WRAP region. A primary objective was to validate the modeling scenarios so that they can be used in subsequent analysis to support the development of State and Tribe Implementation Plans, which are due in December 2007. Most of these activit ies were performed under Tasks 1-4, 7, and 10.
Another major activity (Task 12) was the develo pment of modeling scenarios to analyze visibility in Alaska. These data were developed independently of the conterminous WRAP region because Alaska is so far removed from the ot her WRAP states and because it has much lower emissions densities and longer tr ansport distances. Alaska mode ling required separate simulations that used a polar version of the mete orology model and that employed the CALPUFF model, which is more appropriate than grid-b ased models for studying visibility in Alaska.
The 2004 project year also included development of tools and model simulations to analyze the sources of haze. This activity was performe d under Tasks 5 and 7. The CMAQ model was initially used to analyze source apportionment—that is, to identify partic ular emissions source categories and regions that are responsible for visi bility impairment at individual receptor sites. Because of mass conservation errors in the mode ling system, the source apportionment results in CMAQ were more qualitative than quantitative. We also evaluated the CAMx model’s source apportionment tools, and plan to use CA Mx in future source apportionment work.
Several model simulations were performed to a ssess CMAQ’s sensitivity to changes in the fire emissions data (Task 11). Some key data needed for the fire sensitivit y studies (e.g., detailed information on small fires) were not available, so the task definition was modified during 2004; the small fire sensitivity analysis and other plume rise analyses will now be completed in 2005.
In 2005-2006, the RMC will finish developing future visibility scenarios for 2018 to be used in additional modeling to support development of SIPs/T IPs. The ultimate goal is to transfer these data sets to the states and tribes so that they can carry out additional modeling analyses for their areas. During 2004 there were extensive discussi ons about what combination of training and technical support would be most be neficial for technology transfer. It was agreed that the most efficient approach would be to develop a standard ized version of all data sets, computer software, and computer hardware, and that instruc tions for model setup and use would be provided on the project web site. Additionally , training classes will be offered on an “as needed” basis.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

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## Contents

Executive Summary.............................................................................................................. ........ ii

Tables ......................................................................................................................... ................... xi Figures........................................................................................................................ ................. xiv

Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. ......... xxiv

1. Introduction................................................................................................................... ......... 1 1.1 Background................................................................................................................. ... 1 1.1.1 Need for regional haze modeling ..................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Role of the Western Regional Air Partnership................................................. 2 1.1.3 WRAP strategic plan ........................................................................................ 3 1.1.4 Organization of the Regional Modeling Center ............................................... 4 1.2 Overview of RMC 2004 Activities................................................................................ 5

2. Task 0.5: 2002 Ammonia Emissions Inventory for WRAP Region .................................. 7 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... .... 7 2.2 Emissions Inventory Development................................................................................ 9 2.2.1 Emission factors ............................................................................................. 10 2.2.2 Activity data ................................................................................................... 13 2.2.3 Temporal allocation........................................................................................ 14 2.2.4 Spatial allocation ............................................................................................ 15 2.2.5 Land use and environmental data................................................................... 16 2.2.6 GIS-based modeling ....................................................................................... 19 2.3 2002 Ammonia Emissi ons inventory .......................................................................... 19 2.3.1 Livestock operations....................................................................................... 22 2.3.2 Fertilizer application....................................................................................... 23 2.3.3 Native soils ..................................................................................................... 25 2.3.4 Domestic sources............................................................................................ 26 2.3.5 Wild animals................................................................................................... 27 2.3.6 Comparison with CMU emission estimates ................................................... 28 2.4 Summary and Recommendations ................................................................................ 29 2.4.1 Summary ........................................................................................................ 30 2.4.2 Recommendations .......................................................................................... 30 2.5 Status of Task 0.5 Deliverables ................................................................................... 31

3. Task 1: Project Administration.......................................................................................... 33Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

v 3.1 Project Administration................................................................................................. 33 3.2 Computer Systems Administration.............................................................................. 33 3.3 Status of Task 1 Deliverables ...................................................................................... 35

4. Task 2: Test, Improve, Quality Contro l, Obtain External Peer Review, and Finalize 36-km and 12-km MM5 Simulations for Eventual Use in CMAQ ................... 36 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... .. 36 4.1.1 Task history .................................................................................................... 36 4.1.2 Summary of approach .................................................................................... 38 4.2 Additional 36-km MM5 Sensitivity Tests ................................................................... 39 4.3 Analysis Procedures .................................................................................................... 40 4.4 MM5 Sensitivity Test Results ..................................................................................... 41 4.4.1 Cumulus parameterization sensitivity test...................................................... 41 4.4.2 LSM/PBL sensitivity test ............................................................................... 45 4.4.3 FDDA sensitivity test ..................................................................................... 49 4.4.4 Tests in other seasons ..................................................................................... 54 4.4.5 Selection of best-performing run.................................................................... 61 4.5 Summary of Results for the WRAP Region, and Performance in Other Subdomains ................................................................................................................. 62 4.5.1 Summary of WRAP region results................................................................. 62 4.5.2 Tests in other subdomains .............................................................................. 67 4.6 Additional 12-km MM5 Sensitivity Tests ................................................................... 70 4.7 Evaluation of the Final WRAP 2002 MM5 36/12-km Annual Run............................ 72 4.7.1 METSTAT Surface Evaluation ......................................................................... 73 4.7.2 Precipitation Evaluation .................................................................................... 80 4.7.3 Upper-Air Evaluation........................................................................................ 83 4.7.4 12-km METSTAT Surface Performance Evaluation ........................................ 87 4.7.5 12-km Precipitation Pe rformance Evaluation ................................................... 91 4.8 Summary.................................................................................................................... .. 94 4.9 Status of Task 2 Deliverables ...................................................................................... 96

5. Task 3: 2002 Base Year Emissions Modeling, Processing, and Analysis........................ 98 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... .. 98 5.2 WRAP 2002 Emissions Inventories .......................................................................... 100 5.2.1 Stationary area sources................................................................................. 103 5.2.2 Road dust sources......................................................................................... 104 5.2.3 Windblown dust ........................................................................................... 105 5.2.4 Anthropogenic fugitive dust sources............................................................ 105 5.2.5 Agricultural NH 3 sources ............................................................................. 106Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

vi 5.2.6 On-road mobile sources................................................................................ 107 5.2.7 Nonroad mobile sources............................................................................... 108 5.2.8 Stationary point sources ............................................................................... 109 5.2.9 Offshore sources........................................................................................... 110 5.2.10 Fire sources................................................................................................... 112 5.2.11 Biogenic sources........................................................................................... 116 5.2.12 Inventories summary for the fina l preliminary 2002 simulations ................ 117 5.3 WRAP 2002 Ancillary Emissions Inputs .................................................................. 118 5.3.1 Temporal allocation data .............................................................................. 119 5.3.2 Spatial allocation data .................................................................................. 120 5.3.3 Chemical speciation data.............................................................................. 121 5.3.4 Meteorology data.......................................................................................... 121 5.3.5 Other emissions input data ........................................................................... 121 5.4 Description of FY 2004 Emi ssions Modeling Simulations ....................................... 122 5.4.1 Emissions simulation Pre02a_36.................................................................. 123 5.4.2 Emissions simulation Pre02b_36 ................................................................. 124 5.4.3 Emissions simulation Pre02c_36.................................................................. 124 5.4.4 Emissions simulation Pre02c_12.................................................................. 125 5.4.5 Emissions simulation Pre02c_PinG ............................................................. 125 5.4.6 Emissions simulation Pre02c_36s01............................................................ 125 5.4.7 Emissions simulation Pre02d_36 ................................................................. 126 5.4.8 Emissions simulation Pre02e_36.................................................................. 127 5.4.9 Emissions simulation Pre02f_36 .................................................................. 128 5.4.10 Emissions simulation Pre02d_12 ................................................................. 128 5.5 RMC Emissions Modeling Deliverables and QA/QC Products............................... 129 5.5.1 SMOKE time requirements and disk use ..................................................... 130 5.5.2 RMC version control .................................................................................... 132 5.5.3 Quality assurance products........................................................................... 133 5.6 WRAP Preliminary 2002 Emissions Progress........................................................... 134 5.7 Emissions Sensitivities .............................................................................................. 152 5.8 Problems Encountered and Corrections .................................................................... 153 5.8.1 Stationary area sources................................................................................. 153 5.8.2 Nonroad mobile sources............................................................................... 154 5.8.3 Road dust sources......................................................................................... 157 5.8.4 On-road mobile sources................................................................................ 157 5.8.5 Point sources................................................................................................. 158 5.8.6 Biogenic sources........................................................................................... 160 5.8.7 SMOKE ancillary input files........................................................................ 160Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

vii 5.9 Outstanding Emissions Issues ................................................................................... 161 5.10 Emissions Data Technology Transfer........................................................................ 162 5.11 Next Steps................................................................................................................ .. 163 5.12 Status of Task 3 Deliverables .................................................................................... 163

6. Task 4: Air Quality Model Evalua tion for 2002 Annual Simulation............................ 165 6.1 Operational Evaluation Approach ............................................................................. 165 6.1.1 Performance evaluation tools ....................................................................... 166 6.1.2 Subdomains analyzed................................................................................... 167 6.1.3 Model performance goals and criteria.......................................................... 167 6.1.4 Performance time periods............................................................................. 168 6.1.5 Performance measures.................................................................................. 169 6.2 Operational Evaluation of CMAQ Base Case D (pre02d) in the WRAP States ....... 169 6.2.1 Sulfate (SO 4 )................................................................................................. 169 6.2.2 Nitrate (NO 3 ) ................................................................................................ 177 6.2.3 Ammonium (NH 4 )........................................................................................ 184 6.2.4 Organic carbon (OC) .................................................................................... 186 6.2.5 Elemental carbon (EC) ................................................................................. 191 6.2.6 Other fine PM (soil) and coarse mass (CM)................................................. 196 6.3 Evaluation of CMAQ at Class I Areas for the Best-20% and Worst-20% Days....... 201 6.3.1 Procedures for projecting visibility improvements ...................................... 201 6.3.2 Evaluation for best/worst-20% days............................................................. 202 6.4 Conclusions of CMAQ 2002 pre02d 36-km and 12-km Base Case Model Performance Evaluation ............................................................................................ 212 6.5 Status of Task 4 Deliverables .................................................................................... 215

7. Task 5: Preparation and Reporting of Geographic Source Apportionment Results........................................................................................................................ ......... 216 7.1 Overview ................................................................................................................... 216 7.2 Description of TSSA Method .................................................................................... 218 7.2.1 Initialization of tagged species ..................................................................... 218 7.2.2 Definition of source regions ......................................................................... 219 7.2.3 Definition of source categories..................................................................... 222 7.2.4 Updating of tracers in CMAQ science algorithms ....................................... 223 7.2.5 Postprocessing of TSSA results ................................................................... 225 7.2.6 Uncertainties in the TSSA results ................................................................ 226 7.3 Source Attribution Modeling Results ........................................................................ 227 7.4 Status of Task 5 Deliverables .................................................................................... 230Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

viii 8. Task 6: Further Analysis of Model Perf ormance in Regard to the Contribution of Natural Emissions to Visibility Impairment............................................................... 232 8.1 Background................................................................................................................ 2 32 8.2 Work Performed from March 2004 through February 2005 ..................................... 233 8.3 Next Steps................................................................................................................. . 233 8.4 Status of Task 6 Deliverables .................................................................................... 234

9. Task 7: Evaluation and Compar ison of Alternative Models ......................................... 235 9.1 Advantages in Operating Multiple Models ............................................................... 235 9.2 Description of the CAMx Modeling System............................................................. 236 9.2.1 Overview ...................................................................................................... 236 9.2.2 PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) ......................................... 238 9.3 Approach for Testing and Evalua tion of Alternative Models ................................... 239 9.4 Comparative Evaluation of the CAMx and CMAQ Models ..................................... 240 9.4.1 Evaluation for Sulfate (SO 4 )......................................................................... 240 9.4.2 Evaluation for Nitrate (NO 3 ) ........................................................................ 241 9.4.3 Evaluation for organic carbon (O C) and elemental carbon (EC)................. 246 9.4.4 Evaluation for other PM 2.5 (soil) and coarse mass (CM) ............................. 246 9.5 Comparison of the PSAT and T SSA PM Source Attribution ................................... 249 9.5.1 CAMx PSAT PM Source Attr ibution Configuration ................................... 249 9.5.2 Differences in TSSA and PSAT Configurations.......................................... 251 9.5.3 Source Attribution Modeling Results........................................................... 251 9.5.4 Conclusions on PM S ource Attribution........................................................ 254 9.6 Status of Task 7 Deliverables .................................................................................... 261

10. Task 9: Testing and Further Improveme nts to the Windblown Dust Emissions Modeling Methodology...................................................................................................... 262 10.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. . 262 10.2 Summary of Phase I Methodology an d Phase II Literature Review ......................... 262 10.2.1 Summary of Phase I methodology ............................................................... 262 10.2.2 Review of recent literature ........................................................................... 264 10.3 Phase II Windblown Dust Emission Estimation Methodology ................................. 268 10.3.1 Friction velocities ......................................................................................... 268 10.3.2 Threshold friction velocities......................................................................... 268 10.3.3 Surface roughness lengths ............................................................................ 269 10.3.4 Emission fluxes ............................................................................................ 269 10.3.5 Reservoir characteristics............................................................................... 269 10.3.6 Soil disturbance ............................................................................................ 271 10.3.7 Data sources ................................................................................................. 271Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

ix 10.3.8 Agricultural land adjustments ...................................................................... 273 10.4 Model Results for 2002 ............................................................................................. 274 10.4.1 Scenario a ..................................................................................................... 274 10.4.2 Scenario b..................................................................................................... 277 10.4.3 Scenario c ..................................................................................................... 279 10.4.4 Scenario d..................................................................................................... 281 10.4.5 Summary of results and recommendations .................................................. 283 10.5 Model Performance Evaluation ................................................................................. 287 10.5.1 Evaluation, Part 1: Comparisons of windblown dust emissions with the occurrence of enhanced “ dust” at IMPROVE monitors......................... 288 10.5.2 Evaluation, Part 2: Enhancements to CMAQ to separately track dust......... 289 10.6 Summary................................................................................................................... . 289 10.6.1 Results .......................................................................................................... 290 10.6.2 Recommendations ........................................................................................ 290 10.7 Status of Task 9 Deliverables .................................................................................... 291

11. Task 10: Continued Improvement to Model Evaluation Software............................... 292 11.1 Work Performed from March 2004 through February 2005 ..................................... 292 11.2 Status of Task 10 Deliverables .................................................................................. 293

12. Task 11: Sensitivity Studies Designed to Evaluate Uncertainties in Fire Emissions ...................................................................................................................... ...... 294 12.1 Scenario 1(a)............................................................................................................. . 295 12.2 Scenario 1(b)............................................................................................................. . 296 12.3 Scenario 2 ................................................................................................................ .. 296 12.4 Scenario 3 ................................................................................................................ .. 297 12.5 Scenario 4 ................................................................................................................ .. 297 12.6 Scenario 5 ................................................................................................................ .. 298 12.7 Status of Task 11 Deliverables .................................................................................. 299

13. Task 12: Preliminary Meteorological, Emissions, and Air Quality Modeling Activities for Alaska .......................................................................................................... 311 13.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. . 311 13.2 Meteorological Modeling Approach ......................................................................... 313 13.2.1 Overview of MM5........................................................................................ 313 13.2.2 The meteorology of Alaska .......................................................................... 314 13.2.3 MM5 configuration ...................................................................................... 315 13.2.4 Procedure to simulate the year 2002 ............................................................ 324 13.2.5 Evaluation procedures for the 2002 annual run............................................ 324 13.2.6 CALMET modeling ..................................................................................... 329Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

x 13.3 Emissions Modeling Approach ................................................................................. 329 13.4 Air Quality Modeling Approach................................................................................ 330 13.5 Status of Task 12 Deliverables .................................................................................. 330

14. Task 13: Training Courses for the WRAP States and Tribes ....................................... 331 14.1 Work Performed from March 2004 through February 2005 ..................................... 331 14.2 Status of Task 13 Deliverables .................................................................................. 332

15. Summary of Work for March 1, 2004, through February 28, 2005 ............................. 333 15.1 Task 0.5: 2002 Ammonia Emissions Inventory for WRAP Region.......................... 333 15.2 Task 1: Project Administration.................................................................................. 334 15.3 Task 2: Test, Improve, Quality Contro l, Obtain External Peer Review, and Finalize 36-km and 12-km MM5 Simulations for Eventual Use in CMAQ ............. 334 15.4 Task 3: 2002 Base Year Emissions Modeling, Processing, and Analysis................. 335 15.5 Task 4: Air Quality Model Evaluation for 2002 Annual Simulation ........................ 336 15.6 Task 5: Preparation and Reporti ng of Geographic Source Apportionment Results ....................................................................................................................... 3 37 15.7 Task 6: Further Analysis of Model Pe rformance in Regard to the Contribution of Natural Emissions to Visibility Impairment.......................................................... 338 15.8 Task 7: Evaluation and Comparison of Alternative Models ..................................... 338 15.9 Task 9: Testing and Further Improvements to the Windblown Dust Emissions Modeling Methodology ............................................................................................. 338 15.10 Task 10: Continued Improvement to Model Evaluation Software............................ 339 15.11 Task 11: Sensitivity Studies Designed to Evaluate Uncertainties in Fire Emissions................................................................................................................... 340 15.12 Task 12: Preliminary Meteorological, Emissions, and Air Quality Modeling Activities for Alaska.................................................................................................. 340 15.13 Task 13: Training Courses for the WRAP States and Tribes .................................... 341

References..................................................................................................................... ............. 342 Appendices A through E: Five Appendices to Section 5, “Task 3: 2002 Base Year Emissions Modeling, Processing, and Analysis”............................................................. 349 Appendix F: Appendix to Section 11, “Tas k 10: Continued Improvement to Model Evaluation Software” ........................................................................................................ 350Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

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## Tables

Table 1-1. WRAP 2003 Strate gic Plan (WGA, 2003).....................................................................4 Table 2-1. Ammonia emission source cat egories included in the WRAP NH 3 inventory. ............9 Table 2-2. Livestock emission factors (kg/animal-yr)...................................................................10 Table 2-3. Fertilizer emission factors. ........................................................................................ ...10 Table 2-4. Emission factors for native soils................................................................................... 11 Table 2-5. Emission factors for domestic ammonia sources. ........................................................12 Table 2-6. Emission factors for w ild animal ammonia sources.....................................................12 Table 2-7. Monthly livestoc k allocation factors. ...........................................................................14 Table 2-8. NLCD land cover classification codes. ........................................................................17 Table 2-9. Annual 2002 NH 3 emissions by state (tons).................................................................20 Table 2-10. Status of the Task 0.5 deliverables.............................................................................32 Table 3-1. Status of the Task 1 deliverables..................................................................................3 5 Table 4-1. MM5 configurations from original (Run 0) and m odified (Run 5) MM5 runs............37 Table 4-2. Summary of additional MM5 sensitivity tests..............................................................39 Table 4-3. METSTAT subdom ain abbreviations...........................................................................40 Table 4-4. Surface model performance evaluation statistics summary. ........................................67 Table 4-5. Summary of cumulus sensitivity tests on the 12-km grid. ...........................................70 Table 4-6. Final MM5 configuration for 2002 annual run for 36-km and 12-km grids. ...............96 Table 4-7. Status of the Task 2 deliverables..................................................................................9 7 Table 5-1. Major emissions modeling task s completed in project year 2004................................99 Table 5-2. Emissions inventory categories included in the preliminary 2002 simulations .........102 Table 5-3. Preliminary 2002 stationary-area-so urce emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations..................................................................104 Table 5-4. Preliminary 2002 road dust emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations.........................................................................................105 Table 5-5. SCCs removed from the area-source i nventories and replaced with VISTAS or Canadian inventory data to represen t explicit fugitive dust emissions..................................105 Table 5-6. Preliminary 2002 fugitive dust emissi ons inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations. ..................................................................................106 Table 5-7. Preliminary 2002 on-road mobile-s ource emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations..................................................................107 Table 5-8. Preliminary 2002 nonroad mobile-sou rce emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations..................................................................108Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xii Table 5-9. Preliminary 2002 stationary-point-s ource emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations..................................................................110 Table 5-10. Preliminary 2002 offs hore-point-source emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations..................................................................111 Table 5-11. Preliminary 2002 offshore-mobile-sou rce emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations..................................................................112 Table 5-12. Preliminary WRAP 200 2 agricultural fire emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations..................................................................113 Table 5-13. Preliminary WRAP 2002 prescribed-fire emission s inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations..................................................................114 Table 5-14. Preliminary 2002 wildfire emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations.........................................................................................115 Table 5-15. Preliminary 2002 other fire emission s inventory summary w ith references for inventories used in all simulations.........................................................................................116 Table 5-16. Preliminary 2002 biogenic emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations.........................................................................................117 Table 5-17. Summary of fina l preliminary 2002 emissions inventories compiled during 2004 and used for simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12....................................................117 Table 5-18. Mapping of ESRI/CIESIN to EP A99 codes for 12-km Mexican spatial surrogates. .................................................................................................................... ..........120 Table 5-19. Web sites and Bugzilla ticket numbers for preliminary 2002 emissions simulations. ................................................................................................................... .........129 Table 5-20. SMOKE time and disk use sta tistics for simulation Pre02c_36 km.........................131 Table 5-21. CVS revision tags fo r preliminary 2002 modeling...................................................133 Table 5-22. Summary of emissions updates betw een the Pre02c and Pre02d inventories..........134 Table 5-23. Comparison among the three Pre02 simu lations of annual U.S. pollutant totals in tons/year for all source categories combined.....................................................................137 Table 5-24. Comparison among the three Pr e02 simulations of annual WRAP-region pollutant totals in tons/year fo r all source categories combined............................................137 Table 5-25. Pre02b U.S. pollutant totals by source category.......................................................139 Table 5-26. Pre02c U.S. pollutant totals by source category.......................................................139 Table 5-27. Pre02d U.S. pollutant totals by source category.......................................................139 Table 5-28. Pre02b WRAP-region polluta nt totals by source category.......................................140 Table 5-29. Pre02c WRAP-region polluta nt totals by source category.......................................140 Table 5-30. Pre02d WRAP-region polluta nt totals by source category.......................................140 Table 5-31. Description and profile assignments for new WRAP 2002 nonroad mobile SCCs. .......................................................................................................................... ...........155 Table 5-32. Status of the Task 3 deliverables..............................................................................164 Table 6-1. Model performance goals/criteria us ed to help interpret modeling results. ...............168Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xiii Table 6-2. Status of the Task 4 deliverables................................................................................215 Table 7-1. Combinations of source categories and geographic regions that are typically included in a TSSA simulation. .............................................................................................223 Table 7-2. Status of the Task 5 deliverables................................................................................231 Table 8-1. Status of the Task 6 deliverables................................................................................234 Table 9-1. Definitions of the geographic source regions used in the TSSA and PSAT source attribution modeling. ..................................................................................................2 50 Table 9-1. Status of the Task 7 deliverables................................................................................261 Table 10-1. Summary of surface ch aracteristics for application of the Phase II dust model. .....269 Table 10-2. Number of days afte r precipitation event to re-ini tiate wind erosion for rainfall amounts (constant) ≥ 2 in........................................................................................................270 Table 10-3. Number of days afte r precipitation event to re-ini tiate wind erosion for rainfall amounts (constant) <2 in....................................................................................................... .270 Table 10-4. Percentage of each la nd use type for the U.S. portion of the modeling domain. .....271 Table 10-5. STATSGO soil textur e and soil group codes. ..........................................................272 Table 10-6. Status of the Task 9 deliverables..............................................................................291 Table 11-1. Status of the Task 10 deliverables............................................................................293 Table 12-1. Summary of new air quality model simu lations used to evaluate effects of fire emissions...................................................................................................................... ..........295 Table 12-2. Status of the Task 11 deliverables............................................................................300 Table 13-1. Summary of MM5 configur ation for sensitivity tests. .............................................317 Table 13-2. Physics options selected for the 2002 WRAP winter Alaska MM5 simulation.......322 Table 13-3. Physics options selected for the 2002 WRAP summer Alaska MM5 simulation. ...322 Table 13-4. FDDA analysis nudging coefficients (s -1 ). ...............................................................323 Table 13-5. Status of the Task 12 deliverables............................................................................330 Table 14-1. Status of the Task 13 deliverables............................................................................332Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xiv 

## Figures

Figure 1-1. Regional Planning Organizations engaged in regional haze modeling.........................2 Figure 1-2. Locations of Class I areas in the WRAP states.............................................................3 Figure 2-1. RPO Unified Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain.............................................8 Figure 2-2. NLCD data for the c onterminous United States. ........................................................17 Figure 2-3. Mean soil pH for th e conterminous United States. .....................................................18 Figure 2-4. 2002 annual NH 3 emissions by source category and st ate in tons per year (tpy). ......22 Figure 2-5. Annual livestock NH 3 emissions by animal type for WRAP states............................23 Figure 2-6. Annual fertilizer NH 3 emissions by fertilizer type for WRAP states..........................24 Figure 2-7. Annual fertilizer NH 3 emissions: dataset a0 is with pH effects, dataset a1 is without them. .................................................................................................................. .........25 Figure 2-8. Annual native soil NH 3 emissions by land use type for WRAP states. ......................26 Figure 2-9. Annual domestic-source NH 3 emissions by source type for WRAP states. ...............27 Figure 2-10. Annual wild animal NH 3 emissions by animal type for WRAP states. ....................28 Figure 2-11. Comparison of total 2002 annua l ammonia emissions between the CMU and WRAP models. ................................................................................................................... .....29 Figure 4-1. Definition of METSTAT subdomains. .......................................................................41 Figure 4-2a. Wind soccer plot for cumulus parameterization sensitivity test................................43 Figure 4-2b. Temperature soccer plot for cumu lus parameterization sensitivity test....................43 Figure 4-2c. Humidity soccer plot for cumu lus parameterization sensitivity test. ........................44 Figure 4-3. Precipitation comparison for the cu mulus parameterization sensitivity test. Run 2a (top left): Betts-Miller; Run 2b (bottom left): Grell; Run 5 (bottom right): KainFritsch II. Observed is shown at top right................................................................................45 Figure 4-4a. Wind soccer plot for LSM/PBL parameterization sensitivity test. ...........................47 Figure 4-4b. Temperature soccer plot for LS M/PBL parameterization sensitivity test.................47 Figure 4-4c. Humidity soccer plot for LSM/ PBL parameterization sensitivity test......................48 Figure 4-5. Precipitation comparison for the LS M/PBL parameterization sensitivity test. Run 2a (top left): PX/ACM; Run 3b (bottom left): 5-layer/M-MRF; Run 1ba (bottom right): NOAH/M-MRF. Observed is shown at top right..........................................................49 Figure 4-6a. Wind speed soccer plot for FD DA configuration sensitivity test. ............................50 Figure 4-6b. Wind speed/direction soccer plot fo r FDDA configuration sensitivity test..............51 Figure 4-6c. Temperature soccer plot for FD DA configuration sensitivity test............................51 Figure 4-6d. Humidity soccer plot for FDDA configuration sensitivity test.................................52 Figure 4-7a. Wind soccer plot for N OAH/M-MRF nudging sensitivity test.................................53 Figure 4-7b. Temperature soccer plot fo r NOAH/M-MRF nudging sensitivity test. ....................53Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xv Figure 4-7c. Humidity soccer plot fo r NOAH/M-MRF nudging sensitivity test. .........................54 Figure 4-8a. Wind soccer plot fo r Run 2ae seasonal test...............................................................55 Figure 4-8b. Wind soccer plot fo r Run 1bb seasonal test..............................................................56 Figure 4-8c. Temperature soccer plot for Run 2ae seasonal test. ..................................................56 Figure 4-8d. Temperature soccer plot for Run 1bb seasonal test. .................................................57 Figure 4-8e. Humidity soccer plot for Run 2ae seasonal test. .......................................................57 Figure 4-8f. Humidity soccer plot for Run 1bb seasonal test. .......................................................58 Figure 4-9a. CPC observed precipitation for the five-day modeled segment in each season........59 Figure 4-9b. Seasonal precipitation test for Run 2ae (PX). ...........................................................60 Figure 4-9c. Seasonal precipitation test for Run 1bb (M-MRF)....................................................61 Figure 4-10a. Wind speed soccer plot for compar ison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs........................................................................................63 Figure 4-10b. Wind direction soccer plot for co mparison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs. .................................................................................63 Figure 4-10c. Temperature soccer plot for comp arison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs........................................................................................64 Figure 4-10d. Humidity soccer plot for compar ison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs........................................................................................64 Figure 4-11a. July 1-5, 2002, MM5 predicted versus observed surf ace temperature time series for Run 0. .............................................................................................................. .........65 Figure 4-11b. July 1-5, 2002, MM5 predicted ve rsus observed surface temperature time series for Run 2ae............................................................................................................. ........65 Figure 4-12. Precipitation comp arison for July 2002 for original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) MM5 runs. Obse rved is shown at top right..............................................66 Figure 4-13a. Wind soccer plot for comparison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs fo r subdomains outside WRAP. ..........................................68 Figure 4-13b. Temperature soccer plot for comp arison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs for subdomains outside WRAP.....................................69 Figure 4-13c. Humidity soccer plot for comp arison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs for subdomains outside WRAP.....................................69 Figure 4-14a. Wind soccer plot for cumu lus sensitivity test on 12-km grid..................................71 Figure 4-14b. Temperature soccer plot for cu mulus sensitivity test on 12-km grid......................71 Figure 4-14c. Humidity soccer plot for cu mulus sensitivity test on 12-km grid. ..........................72 Figure 4-15. 36-km surface wind performance soccer plot for January for western U.S. (top) and central and eas tern U.S. (bottom).............................................................................74 Figure 4-16. 36-km surface temperature perfor mance soccer plot for January for western U.S. (top) and central and eastern U.S. (bottom).....................................................................75 Figure 4-17. 36-km surface humidity performan ce soccer plot for January for western U.S. (top) and central and easte rn U.S. (bottom).............................................................................76Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xvi Figure 4-18. 36-km surface wind performance so ccer plot for July for western U.S. (top) and central and eastern U.S. (bottom)......................................................................................77 Figure 4-19. 36-km surface temperature performa nce soccer plot for July for western U.S. (top) and central and easte rn U.S. (bottom).............................................................................78 Figure 4-20. 36-km humidity performance soccer plot for July for western U.S. (top) and central and eastern U.S. (bottom). ...........................................................................................79 Figure 4-21. January observed and modeled precipitation. ...........................................................81 Figure 4-22. July observed and modeled precipitation..................................................................82 Figure 4-23. July 2, 2002, 12Z Sounding for Spokane, WA. Upper left-hand panel: CENRAP; upper right-hand panel: VISTAS; lower left-hand panel: WRAP_0; lower right-hand panel: new WRAP..................................................................................................85 Figure 4-24. July 16, 2002, 00Z Sounding for Midland, TX. Upper left-hand panel: CENRAP; upper right-hand panel: VISTAS; lower left-hand panel: WRAP_0; lower right-hand panel: new WRAP..................................................................................................86 Figure 4-25. 12/36-km surface temperature performance soccer plot for January for the WRAP region.................................................................................................................... .......87 Figure 4-26. 12/36-km surface wind performance soccer plot for January for the WRAP region. ........................................................................................................................ ..............88 Figure 4-27. 12/36-km surface humidity perfor mance soccer plot for January for the WRAP region.................................................................................................................... .......88 Figure 4-28. 12/36-km surface temperature performance soccer plot for July for the WRAP region.................................................................................................................... .......89 Figure 4-29. 12/36-km surface wind performan ce soccer plot for July for the WRAP region. ........................................................................................................................ ..............89 Figure 4-30. 12/36-km surface humidity performan ce soccer plot for July for the WRAP region. ........................................................................................................................ ..............90 Figure 4-31. Annual cycle in 12-km MM5 precipitation. (a) January CPC observed precipitation. (b) January MM5 predicted total precipitation. (c) March CPC observed precipitation. (d) March MM5 predicted total precipitation. (e) July CPC observed precipitation. (f) July MM5 predicted total pr ecipitation. (figure continued on next page).......................................................................................................................... ...............93 Figure 4-31 (cont’d.). Annual cycle in 12- km MM5 precipitation. (g) October CPC observed precipitation. (h) October MM5 pred icted total precipitation. (i) December CPC observed precipitation. (j) December MM5 predicted total precipitation.......................94 Figure 5-1. Project year 2004 emi ssions processing schedule.......................................................99 Figure 5-2. Example of WRAP ocean-going shipping CO emissions in the 36-km modeling domain. ............................................................................................................... ...112 Figure 5-3. RPO Unified Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain.........................................122 Figure 5-4. WRAP nested 12-km modeling domain. ..................................................................123 Figure 5-5. Simulation Pre02c_36 timing statis tics by source and SMOKE program for the programs that took the longest to run. (AR: stationary area, RD: road dust, NR: nonroad mobile,Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xvii PT: point, MB: WRAP on-road mobile, MB-VMT: non-WRAP on-road mobile, OS: offshore point, BG: biogenic, AGF: agricultural fires, RXF: prescribed fires, WF: wildfires) .........................................131 Figure 5-6. Simulation Pre02c_36 disk usag e by source and SMOKE program for the programs that required the gr eatest amount of disk space. (AR: stationary area, RD: road dust, NR: nonroad mobile, PT: point, MB: WRAP on-road mobile, MB-VMT: non-WRAP on-road mobile, OS: offshore point, BG: biogenic, AGF: agricultura l fires, RXF: prescribed fires, WF: wildfires) ...............132 Figure 5-7. U.S. total emissions comparis on of three annual Pre02 simulations. .......................138 Figure 5-8. WRAP-region total emissions compar ison of three annual Pre02 simulations. .......138 Figure 5-9. Pre02b_36 total domain annual emissions summary................................................141 Figure 5-10. Pre02c_36 total domain annual emissions summary. .............................................141 Figure 5-11. Pre02d_36 total domain annual emissions summary..............................................142 Figure 5-12. Pre02b total U.S. a nnual emissions pie charts. .......................................................143 Figure 5-13. Pre02c total U.S. annual emissions pie charts.........................................................144 Figure 5-14. Pre02d total U.S. a nnual emissions pie charts. .......................................................145 Figure 5-15. Pre02c WRAP annua l emissions pie charts. ...........................................................146 Figure 5-16. Pre02d WRAP annua l emissions pie charts............................................................147 Figure 5-17. Pre02d annual CO sour ce contributions by WRAP state........................................148 Figure 5-18. Pre02d annual NO x source contributions by WRAP state. .....................................148 Figure 5-19. Pre02d annual VOC sour ce contributions by WRAP state.....................................149 Figure 5-20. Pre02d annual NH 3 source contributions by WRAP state. .....................................149 Figure 5-21. Pre02d annual SO 2 source contributions by WRAP state.......................................150 Figure 5-22. Pre02d annual PM 2.5 source contributions by WRAP state. ...................................150 Figure 5-23. Pre02d annual PM 10 source contributions by WRAP state.....................................151 Figure 5-24. Pre02d annual PMc sour ce contributions by WRAP state......................................151 Figure 6-1a. CMAQ 2002 pre 02d base case simulation SO 4 model performance in the WRAP states for January 2002 using the IM PROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right ) monitoring networks. (NADP measures wet SO 4 deposition, whereas the other three networks measure ambient air SO 4 concentrations.)............................................................................................................... .......171 Figure 6-1b. CMAQ 2002 pre 02d base case simulation SO 4 model performance in the WRAP states for April 2002 using the IMPR OVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right) monitoring networks. (NADP measures wet SO 4 deposition, whereas the other three networks measure ambient air SO 4 concentrations.)............................................................................................................... .......172 Figure 6-1c. CMAQ 2002 pre 02d base case simulation SO 4 model performance in the WRAP states for July 2002 using the IMPR OVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right) monitoring networks. (NADP measures wet SO 4 deposition, whereas the other three networks measure ambient air SO 4 concentrations.)............................................................................................................... .......173Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xviii Figure 6-1d. CMAQ 2002 pre 02d base case simulation SO 4 model performance in the WRAP states for October 2002 using the IM PROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right ) monitoring networks. (NADP measures wet SO 4 deposition, whereas the other three networks measure ambient air SO 4 concentrations.)............................................................................................................... .......174 Figure 6-2. Monthly fractional bi as (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d 36-km and 12-km base case SO 4 model performance across IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states....................................................................................................... .175 Figure 6-3. Monthly fractional bi as (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case SO 4 model performance as a function of observed concentration.................................................................................................................. ........176 Figure 6-4a. CMAQ 2002 pre 02d base case simulation NO 3 model performance in the WRAP states for January 2002 using the IM PROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (botto m right) monitoring networks.....................................178 Figure 6-4b. CMAQ 2002 pre 02d base case simulation NO 3 model performance in the WRAP states for April 2002 using the IMPR OVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right) monitoring networks..............................................179 Figure 6-4c. CMAQ 2002 pre 02d base case simulation NO 3 model performance in the WRAP states for July 2002 using the IMPR OVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right) monitoring networks..............................................180 Figure 6-4d. CMAQ 2002 pre 02d base case simulation NO 3 model performance in the WRAP states for October 2002 using the IM PROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (botto m right) monitoring networks.....................................181 Figure 6-5 Monthly fractional bi as (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d 36-km and 12-km base case NO 3 model performance across IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states....................................................................................................... .182 Figure 6-6. Monthly fractional bi as (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d 36-km and 12-km base case NO 3 model performance as a function of observed concentration. ........................................................................................................ .183 Figure 6-7. Monthly fractional bi as (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case NH 4 model performance as a function of observed concentration.................................................................................................................. ........185 Figure 6-8a. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation OC model performance in the WRAP states for January (top) and April (b ottom) using the IMPR OVE (left) and STN (right) monitoring networks...................................................................................................1 87 Figure 6-8b. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case si mulation OC model performance in the WRAP states for July (top) and October ( bottom) using the IMPROVE (left) and STN (right) monitoring networks...................................................................................................1 88 Figure 6-9. Monthly fractional bi as (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case OC model performan ce across IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states......................................................................................................................... ..............189Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xix Figure 6-10. Monthly fractional bias (top) and fractional gr oss error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case OC model performance as a function of observed concentration.................................................................................................................. ........190 Figure 6-11a. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case s imulation EC model performance in the WRAP states for January (top) and April (b ottom) using the IMPR OVE (left) and STN (right) monitoring networks...................................................................................................1 92 Figure 6-11b. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case s imulation EC model performance in the WRAP states for July (top) and October ( bottom) using the IMPROVE (left) and STN (right) monitoring networks...................................................................................................1 93 Figure 6-12. Monthly fractional bias (top) and fractional gr oss error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case EC model perf ormance across IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states. ................................................................................................................... ......194 Figure 6-13. Monthly fractional bias (top) and fractional gr oss error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case EC model performance as a function of observed concentration.................................................................................................................. ........195 Figure 6-14. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simu lation “other fine PM” (soil) model performance in the WRAP states for January (top left), April (top right), July (bottom left), and October (bottom right) usi ng the IMPROVE monitoring network. .......................197 Figure 6-15. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case si mulation CM model performance in the WRAP states for January (top left), April (top right), July (bottom left), and October (bottom right) using the IM PROVE monitoring network......................................................198 Figure 6-16. Monthly fractional bias (top) and fractional gr oss error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case “other fine PM ” (soil) model performance across the IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states.....................................................................................199 Figure 6-17. Monthly fractional bias (top) and fractional gr oss error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case CM model perf ormance across the IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states. ............................................................................................................... ....200 Figure 6-18a. Comparison of predicted and obs erved average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at IMPROVE monitors for SO 4 , NO 3 , OC, EC, CM, and soil. .........205 Figure 6-18b. Comparison of predicted and obs erved average extinction for the best-20% visibility days in 2002 at IMPROVE monitors for SO 4 , NO 3 , OC, EC, CM, and soil. .........206 Figure 6-19a. Comparison of predicted (right) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Grand Canyon (top) and Ch iricahua (bottom) Class I areas. ................................................................................................................. .........207 Figure 6-19b. Comparison of predicted (right) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Bandelier (top) and Rocky Mountain National Park (bottom) Class I areas. ....................................................................................208 Figure 6-19c. Comparison of predicted (right) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Yell owstone (top) and Glacier (bottom) Class I

areas. ......................................................................................................................... .............209Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xx Figure 6-19d. Comparison of predicted (right) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Mount Rainier (top) and Kalmiopsis (bottom) Class I areas. ........................................................................................................ ...210 Figure 6-19e. Comparison of predicted (right) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Po int Reyes (top) and San Gorgonio (bottom) Class I areas. ................................................................................................................. .........211 Figure 6-20. Comparison of predicted (right) an d observed (left) average extinction for the best-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Grand Canyon (top) and Yellowstone (bottom) Class I areas. ................................................................................................................. .........212 Figure 6-21. Comparison of CMAQ 2002 36-km pre02d and Base Case C wet SO 4 deposition model performance in the WRAP stat es for May (top left), June (top right), July (bottom left) and September (bottom right). ..................................................................214 Figure 7-1. Three-dimensional plot of aerosol nitrate attribut ed to California mobile-source emissions on January 14, 2002. .............................................................................................219 Figure 7-2a. Source area mapping file as used in the CMAQ TSSA algorithm, with each source region distinguished by a unique numeric code. ........................................................221 Figure 7 2b. Source area mapping file as used in CAMx PSAT showing the boundaries for each state/region.............................................................................................................. .......222 Figure 7-3. Flowchart of the TSSA implementation in CMAQ’s CCTM. ..................................224 Figure 7-4. Example bar plot produced by UCR postprocessing software showing the largest 20 contributors to aerosol nitrate at a recept or site in the Grand Canyon. The x
axis labels are explained in Table 7-1....................................................................................226 Figure 7-5. CMAQ source attribu tion results at the Ft. Peck IMPROVE site on July 2, 2002: (a) modeled and measured SO 4 concentrations; (b) TSSA results using proportional mass renormalization; (c) TSSA results with lost mass represented as “other.”....................................................................................................................... ............229 Figure 7-6. Source attribution results for SO 4 at the Grand Canyon IMPROVE site on July 2, 2002: (a) CMAQ TSSA results; (b) CAMx PSAT results.................................................230 Figure 9-1a. Comparison of CM AQ (red) and CAMx (blue) SO 4 model performance at sites across the U.S. for July 2002 using th e IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and SEARCH (bo ttom right) monitoring networks. ...............................242 Figure 9-1b. Comparison of CM AQ (red) and CAMx (blue) SO 4 model performance at sites across the U.S. for February 2002 us ing the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and SEARCH (bottom right) monitoring networks. ....................243 Figure 9-2a. Comparison of CM AQ (red) and CAMx (blue) NO 3 model performance at sites across the U.S. for July 2002 using th e IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and SEARCH (bo ttom right) monitoring networks. ...............................244 Figure 9-2b. Comparison of CM AQ (red) and CAMx (blue) NO 3 model performance at sites across the U.S. for February 2002 us ing the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and SEARCH (bottom right) monitoring networks. ....................245Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xxi Figure 9-3. Comparison of CMAQ (red) and CAMx (blue) OC (left) and EC (right) model performance at sites across the U.S. for Ju ly 2002 (top) and February 2002 (bottom) using the IMPROVE monitoring network. ............................................................................247 Figure 9-4. Comparison of CMAQ (red) and CAMx (blue) soil (left) and CM (right) model performance at sites across the U.S. for Ju ly 2002 (top) and February 2002 (bottom) using the IMPROVE monitoring network. ............................................................................248 Figure 9-5. Geographic source re gions used in the PSAT and T SSA PM source attribution modeling. ...................................................................................................................... .........250 Figure 9-6. Locations of IMPROVE monitoring s ites in the western U.S. where the TSSA and PSAT PM source attribution ap proaches were compared...............................................252 Figure 9-7. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PSAT (bottom) sulf ate source attribution at Grand Canyon National Park on July 1, 2002 (day 182).......................................................255 Figure 9-8. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PSAT (bottom) sulf ate source attribution at Grand Canyon National Park on July 7, 2002 (day 188).......................................................256 Figure 9-9. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PSAT (bottom) sulf ate source attribution at Grand Canyon National Park on February 1, 2002 (day 32). ................................................257 Figure 9-10. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PS AT (bottom) sulfate source attribution at Fort Peck, Montana on July 4, 2002 (day 185)......................................................................258 Figure 9-11. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PS AT (bottom) sulfate source attribution at Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, on July 1, 2002 (day 182)...........................................259 Figure 9-12. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PSAT (bottom) sulfate source attribution at Salmon, ID, on July 1, 2002 (day 182)..................................................................................260 Figure 10-1. Comparison between (1) the Martic orena et al. (1997) modeled relationship of threshold friction velocity and aerodynamic roughness length and (2) wind tunnel data from Gillette et al. (1980, 1982), Gillette (1988), and Nickling and Gillies (1989).] ...........266 Figure 10-2. The emission flux as a function of friction velocity predicted by the Alfaro and Gomes (2001) model constrained by the f our geometric-mean-diameter soil classes of Alfaro et al. (2003). ....................................................................................................... ....267 Figure 10-3. Spatial distribution of total 2002 an nual PMc dust emissions for Scenario a.........275 Figure 10-4. Distribution of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type and state for Scenario a........................................................................................................... ......276 Figure 10-5. Spatial distribution of total 2002 an nual PMc dust emissions for Scenario b. .......277 Figure 10-6. Distribution of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type and state for Scenario b........................................................................................................... ......278 Figure 10-7. Spatial distribution of total 2002 an nual PMc dust emissions for Scenario c.........279 Figure 10-8. Distribution of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type and state for Scenario c........................................................................................................... ......280 Figure 10-9. Spatial distribution of total 2002 an nual PMc dust emissions for Scenario d. .......281 Figure 10-10. Distributi on of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type and state for Scenario d........................................................................................................... ......282 Figure 10-11. Distributi on of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by scenario and state......283Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xxii Figure 10-12. Monthly dist ribution of total 2002 PM 10 dust emissions for each scenario across the entire WRAP domain............................................................................................284 Figure 10-13. Distribu tion of total 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type for each scenario for all WRAP states combined. ...............................................................................285 Figure 10-14. Spatial distribution of annual 2002 PMc dust emissions for Scenario b...............286 Figure 10-15. Spatial distribution of 2002 PMc dus t emissions by season for Scenario b..........287 Figure 12-1. (a) The July total fire emissions of carbon monoxide, used as an indicator of fire size and location; (b) th e effect of combined wild fire, agricultural burning, and prescribed burning fire emissions on visibi lity, calculated as the July average. ...................301 Figure 12-2. Two example plots of results s howing effects of fire emissions on extinction coefficient at the Grand Canyon IMPROVE site. Top panel is for anthropogenic emissions; bottom panel is for natural emissions. .................................................................302 Figure 12-3. Monthly average for January throu gh June (as labeled in each plot) showing effect of total fire emissions calculated as the difference of the Pre02f case with both natural and anthropogenic fire emissions minus the Pre02b case with no fire emissions. ....303 Figure 12-4. Monthly averages for July through December (as labeled in each plot) showing effect of total fire emissions calcu lated as the difference of the Pre02f case with both natural and anthropogenic fire em issions minus the Pre02 case with no fire emissions...................................................................................................................... ..........304 Figure 12-5. Left panels show change in carbon monoxide emissions. Right panels shows the change in visibility from all aerosol sp ecies, as monthly aver age deciviews, for each fire sensitivity case: (b) July wild fire s; (d); November prescribed burning; (f) November agricultural burning..............................................................................................305 Figure 12-6. Seasonal total change in carbon monoxide emissions for the Optimal Smoke Management emissions compared to the Base Smoke Management emissions....................306 Figure 12-7. Seasonal average change in de civiews showing effect of Optimal Smoke Management emissions compared to Ba se Smoke Management emissions. ........................307 Figure 12-8. Monthly average for January throu gh June (as labeled in each plot) showing effect of Optimal Smoke Management compared to Base Smoke Management emissions...................................................................................................................... ..........308 Figure 12-9. Monthly average for July through December (as labeled in each plot) showing effect of Optimal Smoke Management compared to Base Smoke Management emissions...................................................................................................................... ..........309 Figure 12-10. (a) The July total natural fire emissions of carbon monoxide. Panels (b) through (d) show the effect of fire sensitivity simulations on visibility, calculated as deciviews and averaged for the month of Jul y, as the difference of each fire sensitivity case minus base case (i.e., Pre02b) for (b) the natural fire sensitivity case; (c) the anthropogenic fire emissions, and (d) the co mbined natural and anthropogenic fire emissions...................................................................................................................... ..........310 Figure 13-1. Locations of the four Class I areas in Alaska and of th e two biggest Alaskan cities, Anchorage and Fairbanks............................................................................................312Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xxiii Figure 13-2. Spatial coverage of the Alaska Grid with 45-km grid point spacing (D01) and the nested 15-km grid (D02)..................................................................................................31 6 Figure 13-3. Wind soccer plot for winter and summer Alaska sensitivity tests. .........................319 Figure 13-4. Temperature soccer plot for wint er and summer Alaska sensitivity tests...............320 Figure 13-5. Humidity soccer plot for winter and summer Alaska sensitivity tests....................321 Figure 13-6. Stations co ntributing data used for observational nudging.....................................324 Figure 13-7. Observed (black) and modeled (re d) temperature and dew point soundings for a sample weather station (BRW) in the Alaska domain for July 3, 2002..............................326 Figure 13-8. NCAR ds472 surface observing network stations in the 45-km Alaska domain....327 Figure 13-9. Example of METSTAT graphi cs from a WRAP Alaska January 2002 sensitivity test............................................................................................................... ..........328Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xxiv 

## Abbreviations

ACM ....................Asymmetric Convective Model ADEC...................Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation AIM......................Aerosol Inorganic Module AML.....................ARC Macro Language AoH......................Attribution of Haze AQS......................Air Quality System ARDB ..................Acid Rain Database BART...................Best Available Retrofit Technology BC ........................boundary condition BEIS.....................Biogenic Emissions Inventory System BELD ...................Biogenic Emissions Landcover Database BM .......................Betts-Miller BRAVO................Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observations Study CAA .....................Clean Air Act CAFO...................confined animal feed operations CALMET .............California Meteorological Model CALPUFF............California Puff Model CAMx ..................Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions CAPE ...................convective available potential energy CARB...................California Air Resources Board CASTNet..............Clean Air Stat us and Trends Network CB-IV...................Carbon Bond IV (also referred to in the modeling community as CBIV, CB4) CCM2...................Community Climate Model 2 CCTM ..................CMAQ Chemical Transport Model CEM ....................continuous emissions monitoring CENRAP..............Central Regional Air Planning Association CEP ......................Carolina Environmental Program CM .......................coarse mass (a term used in the cont ext of the IMPROVE network; see also PMc) CMAQ..................Community Multi scale Air Quality CMAS ..................Community Modeling and Analysis System CMC.....................Chemical Mechanism Compiler CMU ....................Carnegie Mellon University CNG .....................compressed natural gas CPC......................Climate Prediction Center CVS......................Concurrent Versions System CY02....................calendar year 2002 DDM ....................decoupled direct method DEAD ..................Dust Entrainment and DepositionFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xxv dV.........................deciview EC ........................elemental carbon EDAS ...................Eta Data Assimilation System EEA......................European Environment Agency EGAS ...................Economic Growth Analysis System EGU .....................electric generating utility EPA......................U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ESSC....................Earth System Science Center FAQ......................frequently asked question FDDA...................four-dimensional data assimilation FEJF .....................Fire Emissions Joint Forum FIPS......................Federal Implementation Standards GCVTC................Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission GIS .......................geographic information system GUI ......................graphical user interface IC..........................initial condition IDNR....................Iowa Department of Natural Resources IEH.......................Implicit-Explicit Hybrid IMPROVE............Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments IOA ......................index of agreement IPR .......................Integrated Process Rates IRR.......................Integrated Reaction Rates KF ........................Kain-Fritsch LADCO................Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium LAC......................light-absorbing carbon lat-lon ...................latitude-longitude LPG......................liquefied petroleum gas LSM .....................land-surface model LULC ...................land use/land cover M4........................Mechanism 4 MADM.................Multicomponent Aerosol Dynamics Model MADRID .............Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution MANE-VU...........Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union MM5 ....................Fifth-Generation Penn Stat e/NCAR Mesoscale Model M-MRF ................modified Medium-Range Forecast MPE .....................model performance evaluation MRF .....................Medium-Range Forecast MRLC ..................Multi-Resolution Land Characterization MRPO ..................Midwest Regional Planning Organization NADP...................National Atmospheric Deposition Program NASS ...................National Agricultu ral Statistics Service NCAR ..................National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP ...................National Centers for Environmental PredictionFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xxvi NEI.......................National Emissions I nventory (NEI96 = 1996 versi on; NEI99 = 1999 version) NLCD...................National Land Cover Database NNRP...................NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis Project NWS.....................National Weather Service OC........................organic carbon ORD .....................Office of Resear ch and Development OSAT ...................Ozone Source Apportionment Technology PAMS...................Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station PAVE ...................Program for the Analysis and Vi sualization of Environmental data PBL ......................planetary boundary layer PDM.....................Plume Dynamics Model PinG .....................plume-in-grid PM........................particulate matter PM 10 .....................particulate matter ≤ 10 μm in diameter PM 2.5 ....................particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter (referred to in this report as “fine particulate matter”) PMc......................coarse particulate matter: PM that ra nges from 2.5 to10 μm in diameter (note that PMc is also referred to as CM in the context of the IMPROVE network) PPM......................Piecewise Parabolic Method PSAT....................PM Source Apportionment Technology PX ........................Pleim-Xiu QA........................quality assurance QAPP ...................quality assurance project plan QC........................quality control QSSA ...................Quasi Steady State Approximation RADM..................Regional Acid Deposition Model RAMS ..................Regional Atmospheric Modeling System REMSAD.............Regional Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition RHR .....................Regional Haze Rule RMC.....................Regional Modeling Center RMSE...................root mean squared error RPO......................Regional Planning Organization RRF......................relative reduction factor RRTM ..................Rapid Radiative Transfer Model Rx.........................prescribed (used with “wildfires”) SAPRC.................Statewide Air Pollution Research Center SCC......................source classification code SEARCH..............Southeastern Aerosol Research a nd Characterization (monitoring network) SEARCH_H.........SEARCH monitoring ne twork collecting hourly data (vs. daily [24-hour] data) SIP........................State Implementation Plans SMOKE................Sparse Matrix Operat or Kernel Emissions SMVGEAR..........Sparse-Matrix Vectorized Gear SOA......................secondary organic aerosolsFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

xxvii SST.......................sea-surface temperature STATSGO............State Soil Geographic STN......................Speciated Trends Network TIP........................Tribal Implementation Plan TM........................thematic mapper TSD......................Technical Support Document TSSA....................Tagged Species Source Apportionment UAF......................University of Alaska Fairbanks UCR .....................University of California, Riverside UNC .....................University of North Carolina USDA...................U.S. Department of Agriculture USGS ...................U.S. Geological Survey VISTAS................Visibility Improvement – State and Tribal Associations of the Southeast VMT.....................vehicle miles traveled VOC .....................volatile organic compound(s) VRSM ..................Variable Size-Resolution Model WEQ ....................Wind Erosion Equation WRAP..................Western Regional Air PartnershipFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

1 

## 1. Introduction

The Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) Re gional Modeling Center (RMC) is responsible for performing air quality modeling simulations for the WRAP region’ s states and tribes in order to provide analytical results used in developing implementati on plans under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regional Haze Rule. Responsibilities of the RMC include

• meteorological modeling;

• emissions processing and modeling;

• air quality and visibili ty modeling simulations;

• analysis, display, and reporti ng of modeling results; and

• storage and quality assurance of th e modeling input and output files.
This document is a final report that discusses the activities the WRAP RMC performed from March 1, 2004, through February 28, 2005.



### 1.1 Background
1.1.1 Need for regional haze modeling
The Clean Air Act (CAA) establishes special goa ls for visibility in many national parks, wilderness areas, and international parks. Thr ough the 1977 amendments to the Clean Air Act, Congress set a national goal for visibility as “the prevention of any future, and the remedying of any existing, impairment of vi sibility in mandatory Class I Federal areas which impairment results from manmade air pollution” (40 CFR 51.300). States are requi red to develop State Implementation Plans (SIPs) to attain visibility standards; also, tribes may opt to assume responsibility for visibility programs under 40 CFR Pa rt 49 by developing Tribal Implementation Plans (TIPs). The goal of the Regional Ha ze Rule (RHR) is to achieve na tural visibility conditions at 156 Federally mandated Class I areas by 2064. To ach ieve this goal, the RHR has set up milestone years of 2018, 2028, 2038, 2048, 2058, and 2064 to monitor progress toward natural visibility conditions. CAA Section 308 (§308) requires that the first visibility SIP/TIP be submitted to EPA by 2007-2008 to demonstrate progress toward natural visibility conditions in 2018 using the 2000-2004 five-year baseline.
Regional haze is linked to fi ne particulate matter (PM 2.5 , which is particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter), for which EPA has a new standard. PM 2.5 SIPs/TIPs are to be submitted three years after designation of PM 2.5 nonattainment areas. EPA performed the final designations of the PM 2.5 nonattainment areas in December 2004, so the PM 2.5 SIPs / TIPs are due by December 2007. As regional haze is intricately linked to PM 2.5, the PM 2.5 and regional haze SIPs / TIPs are in the process of being aligned so that they would both be due by approximately December 2007 (January 2008). EPA designated 8-h ozone nonatt ainment areas in April 2004, which makes 8-h ozone SIPs / TIPs also due in 2007. States and tribes may use the integrated one-atmosphereFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

2 WRAP RMC base-year modeling as the regiona l component of the 8-h ozone attainment activities as well as for PM 2.5 and regional haze. Those decisions will be based on schedule constraints, model performance, appropriatene ss of the episodes, feasibility, and need.



### 1.1.2 Role of the Western Regional Air Partnership
WRAP is one of five Regional Pl anning Organizations (RPOs) (Fig ure 1-1) that are responsible for coordinating development of SIPs and TIPs in selected areas of the Unites States to address the requirements of the RHR. Th e WRAP region is composed of st ates and tribal lands located within the boundaries of Alaska, Arizona, Calif ornia, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, S outh Dakota, Utah, Washington and Wyoming; it includes the Class I areas indicated in Figure 1-2. WRAP is a regional partners hip of states, tribes, Federal agencies, stakeholders, and citizen groups that wa s established to initia te and coordinate activities associated with the management of regi onal haze and other air quality issues within the WRAP states; their role includes providing techni cal and policy tools to he lp states and tribes. The members of WRAP committees and forums ( http://wrapair.org/about/orgchart.htm ) consist of representatives from the affected stakeholder groups identified above. Committee and forum members are urged to communicate fr eely with their peers and profe ssional associations so that they can adequately represent th e views of that segment of the public. Each committee and forum is expected to translate technical materials into a form accessible to the public. More information about the WRAP organizational struct ure and activities is available at http://wrapair.org/facts/forumdescribe.html

.

Figure 1-1. Regional Planning Organizatio ns engaged in regional haze modeling.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

3 Figure 1-2. Locations of Class I areas in the WRAP states.



### 1.1.3 WRAP strategic plan
On September 29, 2003, WRAP released their st rategic plan for the years 2003-2008 (WGA, 2003): http://wrapair.org/WRAP/meetings/03101 4board/Tab_4_Strategic_Plan_Final.pdf . Prior to 2003, WRAP’s activities focused on developing the Section 309 (§309) SIPs/TIPs that nine WRAP states may elect to opt into and ther eby adopt the recommendati ons of the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC). Thes e §309 SIPs/TIPs address visibility at the 16 Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau (see Figure 1-2). In 2003, WRAP’s efforts turned to performing the technical analyses needed to develo p the §308 SIPs/TIPs that address all 116 Class I areas in the WRAP region. The WRAP 2003-2008 stra tegic plan is broken down into two phases (Table 1-1). It will be re viewed and revised in 2005.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

4 Table 1-1. WRAP 2003 Strategic Plan (WGA, 2003).

Phase I 2003-2005 Phase II 2005-2007 Purpose: Dry run for Phase II. Hedge against earlier due dates. Refine and apply Phase I approaches for SIP/TIP purposes.
Scale: Regional. Regional and subregional. Apportionment: 1996 & 2002 source contributions. Areas each plan to address. 2002 source contributions. Reduction obligations. Strategies: Identify options, screen. Perform cost/benefit, select, design.
Communications: Public education. Public acceptance. Major state/tribe submittals: 2002 emissions inventories. Modeling run specifications.



### 1.1.4 Organization of the Regional Modeling Center
The WRAP RMC is composed of researchers fr om the University of California, Riverside (UCR), ENVIRON International Corporation, and the University of North Carolina’s Carolina Environmental Program (UNC-CEP). Dr. Gail T onnesen of UCR is the Project Manager and Principal Investigator for the RMC. Mr. Ra lph Morris and Mr. Zac Adelman lead the RMC efforts at ENVIRON and UNC-CEP, respectively. We are performing mete orological, emissions, and air quality modeling to support WRAP’s effo rts to comply with the requirements of the RHR. UCR hosts the RMC’s computer center, which includes numerous Linux computer platforms and RAID disk storage systems. In the past , training of states, tribes, and others has been performed at UCR’s facilities.
The primary modeling tools used by the RMC in clude the Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) meteorological modeling system, the Sparse Ma trix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) emissions modeling system, and the Models-3 Community Multiscale Ai r Quality (CMAQ) airquality modeling system. We have also performed some sensitivity tests using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) and Regional Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition (REMSAD) air quality models. In addition, there are plans to apply MM5 and the California Meteorological Model/Califor nia Puff Model (CALMET/CALPUFF) modeling system to Alaska.
During 2002 and 2003, the RMC focused on performing the technical analysis needed to develop the §309 SIPs/TIPs for those states and tribes that elect to pursue the §309 process. We set up the SMOKE emissions and Models-3/CMAQ modeling sy stem for 1996 for the western states using 36-km-resolution MM5 data, and performed the tec hnical analysis needed for the §309 SIPs and TIPs. More details can be found in the Secti on 309 Technical Support Do cument (TSD) (WRAP, 2003) located at http://wrapair.org/309/031215Final309TSD.pdf

. In 2003, the RMC then turned its efforts to set ting up the modeling tools needed to address the technical requirements of the §308 SIPs/TIPs. This included setting up the MM5, SMOKE, andFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

5 CMAQ modeling systems for calendar year 2002 (C Y02) using a 36-km-resolution grid for the continental United States and a 12-km-resolutio n grid for the WRAP states. During 2004 and early 2005, we continued setting up the modeli ng infrastructure for CY02 to address the requirements of the WRAP strategic plan.
The RMC notes and understands the importance of the guidance contained in the WRAP Tribal Template ( http://wrapair.org/WRAP/reports/Gen-Tribe-Temp.pdf ). Work products from the RMC are reviewed by the WRAP Modeling Fo rum and any interested stakeholders.



### 1.2 Overview of RMC 2004 Activities
From March 2004 through February 2005, the RMC activities continued to focus on developing the modeling databases needed to address the t echnical requirements of the §308 SIPs/TIPs. This included not only setting up the emissions, mete orological, and air quali ty modeling for CY02, but also implementing a particulate matter (PM) source apportionment capability to obtain a preliminary assessment of source culpability to re gional haze at Class I areas. Our work efforts also included separate meteorological and disp ersion modeling for Alaska, a WRAP state with four Class I areas whose size and remoteness from the other states make it inefficient to include with the other states’ modeling domain.
At the end of 2003, all 2003 RMC work was co mpleted except for developing the new WRAP ammonia emissions model, for which the data collection efforts were not completed. This remaining work was rolled into the WRAP 2004 RMC work effort. The 2004 work plan ( http://www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ reports/RMC_2004_Workplan_Final_ Version_03_01_04.pdf ) was divided into 13 new tasks plus a task for the ammonia emissions work (Task 0.5). Note that Task 8 is not covered in this report because it did not receive funding for 2004.

• Task 0.5—2002 Ammonia Emissions Inventory for WRAP Region: This task was initiated in 2003 to develop a new GIS-based ammonia emissions model that uses high-resolution land cover data, new ammonia emission fact ors, and MM5 meteor ological data to generate gridded, day-speci fic ammonia emissions.

• Task 1—Project Administration: Project management activities, including progress reports, interim and final reports, conferen ce calls, and day-to-day management, were performed under this task. It also covered the purcha se of computing hardware.

• Task 2—Test, Improve, Quality Control, Ob tain External Peer Review, and Finalize 36- km and 12-km MM5 Simulations for Eventual Use in CMAQ: The MM5 meteorological modeling for CY02 for the continental U.S. at 36 km and the western U.S. at 12 km was performed under this task. This included sensitivity modeling to identify the optimal MM5 configuration, development of an MM5 modeling protocol, peer review of the MM5 approach, and the 2002 annual MM5 modeling.

• Task 3—2002 Base Year Emissions Modeling, Processing, and Analysis: This task covered setting up and performing the 2002 SM OKE emissions modeling at 36- and 12- km resolution.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

6 • Task 4—Air Quality Model Evaluation for 2002 Annual Simulation: Under this task the RMC performed the CMAQ 2002 base case simulation and model performance evaluation.

• Task 5—Preparation and Reporting of Geographic Source Apportionment Results: Implementation of the Tagged Species Source Apportionment (TSSA) algorithms in CMAQ was performed under this task, along with the evalua tion and application of the TSSA as part of the Attr ibution of Haze (AoH) study.

• Task 6—Further Analysis of Model Perform ance in Regard to the Contribution of Natural Emissions to Visibility Impairment: The use of models to aid in the definition of natural conditions was inves tigated under this task.

• Task 7—Evaluation and Comparison of Alternative Models: This task investigated and evaluated the benefits of applyi ng alternative models to CMAQ.

• Task 8—Improvement of WRAP Spatial, Chem ical Speciation, and Te mporal Allocation Profiles: The purpose of this task was to impr ove several components of the emissions inventory. However, it was not funded during 2004.

• Task 9—Testing and Further Improvements to the Windblown Dust Emissions Modeling Methodology: This task refined the WRAP win dblown dust model and applied it to 2002, and included a model performance evaluation.

• Task 10—Continued Improvement to Model Evaluation Software: Updates and enhancements to the UCR model evaluation soft ware were performed under this task.

• Task 11—Sensitivity Studies Designed to Ev aluate Uncertainties in Fire Emissions: The analysis of the sensitivity of PM and visibility to modeli ng assumptions made for wildfires, prescribed burns, and agricultural burning was accomplished under this task.

• Task 12—Preliminary Meteorological, Emi ssions, and Air Quality Modeling Activities for Alaska: Meteorological and disper sion modeling for Alaska were evaluated under this task.

• Task 13—Training Courses for the WRAP States and Tribes: Any training requested was to be performed under this task.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

7 

## 2. Task 0.5: 2002 Ammonia Emissions Inventory for WRAP Region

2.1 Introduction
Ammonia (as ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate) plays an important role in the formation of particulate matter. Recent advances in unders tanding the health impacts of particulate pollution and the important role ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions play in the formation of secondary PM has spawned a great deal of new research in to these emissions. Major sources of NH 3 emissions include livestock operations, fertilizer use, wast e management, mobile sources, industrial point sources, and various biological s ources such as human respiration, wild animals, and soil microbial processes. For each of these source categorie s there remain large uncer tainties in the magnitude of emissions, the diurnal and seasonal variat ions, and the spatial dist ribution. Uncertainty in NH 3 emissions is a key source of uncertainty in modeling the formation of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. Thus, development of improved NH 3 emissions inventories is essential for modeling the formation of fine PM and regional haze, and for developing effective plans to mitigate visibility impairment at national pa rks, forests, and wilderness areas.
The understanding of ammonia emissions has signi ficantly improved since the development of the 1996 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) that wa s used in the WRAP visibility modeling to meet CAA §309 requirements. WRAP funded the RMC to develop an improved NH 3 emissions inventory for the WRAP states and tribes to use in CAA §308 modeling. The development of this improved inventory involved a literature review of recent research in NH 3 emissions, the incorporation of environmental factors that infl uence the magnitude and temporal variation of ammonia emission, and the development of a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling system for efficient generation of a gr idded modeling inventory of ammonia emissions for CY02. We developed the inventory at a spatia l resolution of 36 km on the RPO Unified Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain (abbreviated in this report as “RPO Unified domain”), which is shown in Figure 2-1. This modeling grid is common to all five RPOs, with all emissions gridded to 36-km 2 cells for subsequent ai r quality modeling simulati ons. The source categories considered in the emissions inventory include the four major contributors of ammonia on a regional scale: livestock operati ons, fertilizer usage, domestic s ources, and native soils. At the request of the WRAP Emissions Forum, we also included ammoni a emissions from wild animals in the inventory.
As part of developing the improved inventory, we reviewed recent liter ature concerning ammonia emission factors for various source categories. Particular a ttention was give n to identifying current research focusing on the temporal vari ation of ammonia emissions and the effects of environmental factors. The results of this li terature review are documented in Chitjian and Mansell (2003a). The review identified a numbe r of environmental factors affecting ammonia emission factors and temporal a llocation of annual emission estimat es; these factor s include soil pH and meteorological data. Data on the effect s were obtained from various sources, and the effects were incorporated into the modeling system used in creating the improved ammoniaFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

8 emissions inventory. Chitjian a nd Mansell (2003b) present a detail ed discussion of the environmental factors incorporated into the ammonia emissions modeling system, and their impacts on the resulting ammonia emissions are discussed in Mansell (2004a).

Figure 2-1. RPO Unified Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain.

We developed a GIS-based modeling system using the latest version of ESRI’s GIS, ArcGIS, and the ARC Macro Language (AML). The model incorporates the improved estimation algorithms just discussed, and include s a user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) to facilitate implementation. It also allows eas y modification of activity data, emission factors, and associations between the ammonia emission source cate gories’ land use/land cover (LULC) characteristics. We populated the modeling system with a ll the data needed to produce an ammonia inventory for the U.S. portion of the RPO Unified domain for 2002 at a 36-km spatial resolution. The development of the GIS-based model is doc umented in Chitjian and Mansell (2003b).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

9 

### 2.2 Emissions Inventory Development
The development pathway of the 2002 ammonia em issions inventory is summarized below. (Chitjian and Mansell [2003a,b] and Mansell [2004a] provide greater detail.) Since WRAP forums other than the Air Quality Modeling Forum will be developing ammonia emissions inventories for mobile sources, industrial point sources, and fire sources, we considered only selected major and minor sources of ammonia em issions for our inventor y: livestock operations, fertilizer usage, domestic sources, native soils, and wild animals. Ta ble 2-1 shows the source categories and subcategories in cluded in the inventory.

Table 2-1. Ammonia emission source categories included in the WRAP NH 3 inventory. Major Source Category Subcategories Major Source Category Subcategories
Beef cattle Human respiration Dairy cattle Human perspiration Swine Infant cloth diapers Poultry Infant disposable diapers
Horses Cats Livestock operations

Sheep Domestic

sources

Dogs Anhydrous ammonia Urban Aqueous ammonia Barren/desert Nitrogen solutions Deciduous forest Urea Evergreen forest
Ammonium nitrate Mixed forest Ammonium sulfate Shrubland Ammonium thiosulfate Grassland Other straight nitrogen Fallow Ammonium phosphates Urban/recreational grasses
N-P-K Native soils

Wetlands Calcium ammonium nitrate Black bears Fertilizer usage

Potassium nitrate Grizzly bears
Elk Wild animals

DeerFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

10 

### 2.2.1 Emission factors
2.2.1.1 Livestock operations

Ammonia emissions from livestock were develo ped using county-level head counts and emission factors based on a literature review performed by Chinkin et al. (2003) . Our inventory includes emissions for beef and dairy cattle, poultry, sw ine, sheep, and horses. The approach we used does not treat the individual pr ocesses leading to ammonia emi ssions from various management practices, which has been the subject of recent re search in the emissions inventory development community. Rather, we used emission factors ba sed on a “whole animal” approach. The factors used in developing the WRAP inve ntory are presented in Table 2-2.

Table 2-2. Livestock emission fa ctors (kg/animal-yr).

Source Category Emission Factor Source Category Emission Factor
Beef cattle 25.0 Swine 7.0 Dairy cattle 9.0 Horses 12.2 Poultry 0.1 Sheep 3.4

2.2.1.2 Fertilizer application

Ammonia emission estimates from fertilizer application were deve loped using emission factors from the European Environment Agency (EEA , 2002) as recommended in Chitjian and Mansell (2003b). Emission factors for fertiliz er application are presented in Table 2-3. Fertilizer emission factors are adjusted as a func tion of soil pH. Based on research conducted by Potter et al. (2001), the emission factors are scaled by applying a scalar, a, to each factor, where a is calculated using the following relationship:

a = (0.3125

· pH) - 1.01
Note that soil pH scalars were not applied to urea emission factors, as research has indicated that urea emissions are not affected by initial soil pH. Data for soil pH were derived from the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database from the U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA, 1994). The soil pH data source and processing are disc ussed in more detail in Mansell (2004a).

Table 2-3. Fertilizer emission factors. Fertilizer Type %N Fertilizer Type %N Anhydrous ammonia 4.0 Calcium ammonium nitrate 2.0 Aqueous ammonia 2.4 Ammonium thiosulfate 2.4 Nitrogen solutions 8.0 Other straight nitrogen 2.4Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

11 Fertilizer Type %N Fertilizer Type %N Urea 15.0 Ammonium phosphates 5.0
Ammonium nitrate 2.0 N-P-K 2.0
Ammonium sulfate 10.0 Potassium nitrate 2.4

2.2.1.3 Native soils

Natural soils can be both a source and a sink of ammonia emissions, depending on the ambient NH 3 concentrations, climatic conditions, and the conditions of the soils. While there are a number of researchers consid ering this issue, ammonia emissions from natural soils remain highly uncertain. For our inventory, ammonia emissions from natural soils were estimated based on emission factors developed or recommended by Ba ttye et al. (2003) and Chinkin et al. (2003) (Table 2-4). Land use data used for the invent ory were developed from the National Land Cover Database ( http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/ pub/edcuser/vogel/states/ ) . A more complete description of the LULC data we used can be found in Sect ion 2.2.5.1 and in Mansell (2004a). Emissions from agricultural lands are assumed to be included in the ferti lizer application estimates.

Table 2-4. Emission factors for native soils.

Land Use Type Emission Factor (kg/km 2 -yr) Land Use Type Emission Factor (kg/km 2 -yr)
Urban 10 Shrubland 400 Barren/desert land 10 Grassland 400 Deciduous forest 174 Fallow 205 Evergreen forest 54 Urban/recreational grasses 400 Mixed forest 114 Wetlands 400

Potter et al. (2001) estimated ammonia emissions from native soils based on several environmental variables, including monthly rainfall, surf ace air temperature, solar radiation, soil texture, land cover type, and vegetative type. The model fi rst calculates the avai lable mineral nitrogen substrate for ammonia emissions and then modifies this value by applying scalars for soil surface temperature ( T , in K), pH, and soil moisture content ( M , in g/g). The scalars are of the form
(1/{1 + 10 [0.09018 + 2729.92/(273.16+ T ) – ( c · pH)] })

· (1- M ),

where c is a constant that determines the sensitivity to pH. The authors used c =1.3 (consistent with measurements they had made), and c =10 to produce results with minimal pH effects. Ammonia emissions were calculated for seven nonagricultural soil t ypes. Emission factors derived from the model range from 6.5 kg/km 2 -yr for evergreen needle leaf forests, using a moderate pH effect, to 206 kg/km 2 -yr for mixed forests, using a minimal pH effect.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

12 The emission factors presented in Table 2-4 have been modified for temperature and pH effects using the scalars described above. We used a value of c =1.3. Soil pH data were derived from the STATSGO database (USDA, 1994). Soil temperature and soil moisture content were taken from the meteorological data used in the developm ent of the ammonia emissions inventory, as discussed in Section 2.2.5.3.

2.2.1.4 Domestic sources

Ammonia emissions from domestic source consid ered in the current i nventory include human respiration and perspiration, disposable and cloth diapers, and domestic pets (cats and dogs). Table 2-5 presents the emission factors r ecommended by Chitjian and Mansell (2003b) and Chitjian et al. (2000).

Table 2-5. Emission factors fo r domestic ammonia sources.

Source Emission Factor Unit Cats 0.348 lb N/cat/yr Dogs 2.17 lb N/dog/yr Human perspiration 0.55 lb NH 3 /person/yr Human respiration 0.0035 lb NH 3 /person/yr Cloth diapers 6.9 lb NH 3 /infant/yr Disposable diapers 0.36 lb NH 3 /infant/yr

2.2.1.5 Wild animals

Ammonia emissions from wild an imals considered in the curren t inventory include emissions from grizzly bears, black bears, elk, and deer. The emission factors presen ted in Table 2-6 were obtained from the Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) Ammonia Model (Strader et al., 2004).

Table 2-6. Emission factors for wild animal ammonia sources.

Source Emission Factor Unit Black bears 0.378 kg NH 3 /animal/yr Grizzly bears 0.378 kg NH 3 /animal/yr Elk 1.707 kg NH 3 /animalyr Deer 0.378 kg NH 3 /animal/yrFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

13 

### 2.2.2 Activity data
Complete listings of county-level activity data fo r all source categories considered in the ammonia inventory can be found in Mansell (2004b). Summaries are given below.
2.2.2.1 Livestock operations
Activity data for livestock ammonia emissions we re based on total county-level animal head counts. We obtained animal head counts from the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) county livestock files (NASS, 2003).
2.2.2.2 Fertilizer application
Activity data for fertilizer ammonia emissions we re based on county-level fertilizer usage data. Originally, we sought to obtain th ese data from a number of s ources, including the Association of American Plant Food Control Officers ( AAPFCO, 2003), the USDA agricultural census (2001), and the county crop files (NASS, 2003). Howe ver, these data did not provide the monthly or seasonal variation require d for temporal allocation of the resulting emission estimates. As an alternative, fertilizer sales data obtained from the most recent version of the CMU Ammonia Model (Strader et al., 2004) were extracted and reformatted for us e in our inventory. These data were available for calendar year 2002 on a mont hly basis for each county in the conterminous U.S. The primary source of these data was th e AAPFCO, with monthly variation based on crop planting times and fertilizer application times and rates as documented in Strader et al. (2004).

2.2.2.3 Native soils
The total area of each land use type from the LULC data used for this task provided the activity data for estimating soil emissions. These LULC data were developed from the National Land Cover Database ( http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/pub/ edcuser/vogel/states/ ).

2.2.2.4 Domestic sources
Activity data for domestic sources were based on the most recent U.S. Census (2000), and per capita pet ratios based on recommen dations of Dickson et al. (1991).

2.2.2.5 Wild animals
As noted in Section 2.1, wild animal ammonia em issions were included in the inventory at the request of the WRAP Emissions Forum. Because this source category was added after the data collection efforts were completed, activity data for wild animals were obtained from the latest version of the CMU Ammonia Mode l (Strader et al., 2004). Note th at these data were used “as is” (i.e., no additional quality assurance of the data was performed).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

14 

### 2.2.3 Temporal allocation
2.2.3.1 Livestock operations

A review of current literature revealed a lack in consistency of results quantifying temporal variations in ammonia emissions from livestock (Chitjian and Mansell, 2003a). However, most of the studies cited concluded that ammonia em issions from livestock display both a seasonal and a diurnal variation consistent , in general, with increased a mmonia emissions associated with warmer temperatures.
Chinkin et al. (2003) recommend seasonal allocation factor s derived from those proposed by Gilliland et al. (2002), which are based on inverse modeling results. The factors were adjusted to reflect the current recommended emission factors from EPA’s Office of Research and Development (ORD) (U.S. EPA, 2002), which were not available at the time Gilliland and coworkers performed their modeling. The adjusted factors ar e shown in Table 2-7. Inspection of this table indicates a 3- to 4-fold increase in emissions du ring the warmest months. Also note that the minimum emissions occur during the late fall, as opposed to the coldest months; the minimum in fall is explained by the relatively dry co nditions at that time of year.

Table 2-7. Monthly livestock allocation factors.

Month Temporal Allocation Factor Month Temporal Allocation Factor January 67 July 183 February 75 August 154 March 75 September 115 April 82 October 73 May 126 November 51 June 164 December 51

A discussion of the diurnal variation of livestock ammonia emissions is presented in Chitjian and Mansell (2003b). In general, the literature repor ts an increase in dayt ime emissions over nighttime emissions. Russell and Cass (1986) develope d a theoretical equati on to predict diurnal emission variations as a function of meteorologi cal data. This equation relates hourly ammonia emission rates to temperatur e and wind speed, as follows:

E i ∝ [2.36 ( T i -273)/10 ] V i A

where

E i = ammonia emission rate at hour i from animal waste decomposition
A = daily total emission rate fo r ammonia from animal waste = ∑ E i T

i = ambient temperature in Kelvin at hour iFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

15 V

i = wind speed in m/s at hour i (a minimum wind speed of 0.1 m/s was assumed)
For our inventory, the model of Russell and Cass was used to provide th e diurnal variation of livestock ammonia emissions. This approach is consistent with first-principle assumptions.
Although the seasonal and diurnal va riations presented here are bot h empirically based, they are consistent with theory and measurements show ing increased ammonia vol atilization rates with increased temperature and wind speed. The monthl y allocation factors show n in Table 2-7 were used to allocate annual emission es timates to each month of the year.
2.2.3.2 Fertilizer application
Emissions from fertilizer application were temporally allocated monthly based on the monthly activity data (see Section 2.2.2.2). Di urnal variations in fertilizer emissions are expected, as temperature and wind speed affect ammonia pr oduction and volatilization. Our inventory used the equations developed by Russell and Cass (1986) to temporally allocate daily emissions to each hour of the day as a function of temperatur e and wind speed, as with livestock emissions. Chitjian and Mansell (2003b) provide a more deta iled discussion of the temporal variation of fertilizer ammonia emissions.

2.2.3.3 Native soils
Temporal allocation of native soil ammonia emi ssions was calculated using the emission factor scalars described in Section 2.2.1.3, which are temporally resolved.

2.2.3.4 Domestic sources

The ammonia emissions from domestic sources were assumed to be temporally invariant. Thus, daily emissions can be estimated as the annual estimates divided by 365.

2.2.3.5 Wild animals

The ammonia emissions from wild animals were a ssumed to be temporally invariant. Thus, daily emissions can be estimated as th e annual estimates divided by 365.



### 2.2.4 Spatial allocation
2.2.4.1 Livestock operations
Ideally, for spatial allocation of livestock ammonia emissions, the locations of large confined animal feed operations (CAFOs) should be used to geocode each CAFO within the modeling domain. In addition, grazing livestock must be spatially allocated from the county level to modeling grid cells using land use surrogates. Fo r our inventory, geocoding of large CAFOs was not practical for the WRAP re gional modeling domain, given th e task schedule and budget constraints. Therefore, all livestock ammonia emi ssions were spatially a llocated using surrogates based on the grassland and pasture land use categ ories (codes 71 and 81 in Table 2-8, which is discussed in Section 2.2.5.1).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

16 2.2.4.2 Fertilizer application
Ammonia emissions from fertilizer application ar e spatially allocated as a function of land use types. We developed spatial allo cation factors based on the agricu ltural land classes available in the LULC data used for this task.

2.2.4.3 Native soils
Native soil emissions are spatially allocated ba sed on the land area for each land use category from the LULC data used for this task.

2.2.4.4 Domestic sources
Domestic animal ammonia emissions were spat ially allocated by populatio n density based on the 2000 U.S. Census.

2.2.4.5 Wild animals
Wild animal ammonia emissions were spatially allocated to forestland, shrubland, and grassland as determined by the LULC data used for this task.



### 2.2.5 Land use and environmental data

The land use and environmental data utilized in developing the WR AP ammonia emissions inventory are discussed below.

2.2.5.1 Land use/land cover
The default LULC data used in creating the inventory was based on the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). The NLCD was developed as part of a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and EPA to produce a c onsistent land cover data layer for the entire conterminous U.S. based on 30-m Landsat thema tic mapper (TM) data. The NLCD was developed from TM data acquired from the Multi-Re solution Land Characterization (MRLC) Consortium, a partnership of Federal agencies that prod uce or use land cover data. The partners include USGS (the National Mapping, Biol ogical Resources, and Water Re sources Divisions), EPA, the U.S. Forest Service, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
NLCD datasets are available as flat generic raster image files that are easily imported into a GIS (e.g., ARC/Info) and are provided in an Albers Conic Equal Area pr ojection at a spatial resolution of 30 m. They can be found at http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/ pub/edcuser/vogel/states/ , along with a discussion on how they were developed. The land cover characteristics are defined in terms of the 21 separate categories given in Tabl e 2-8. A sample display of the NLCD data is presented in Figure 2-2.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

17 Table 2-8. NLCD land cover classification codes.

Code Description Code Description

11 Open water 51 Shrubland 12 Perennial ice/snow 61 Orchards/vineyards/other 21 Low-intensity residential 71 Grassland/herbaceous 22 High-intensity residential 81 Pasture/hay 23 Commercial/industrial/transportation 82 Row crops 31 Bare rock/sand/clay 83 Small grains 32 Quarries/strip mines/gravel pits 84 Fallow 33 Transitional 85 Urban/recreational grasses 41 Deciduous forest 91 Woody wetlands 42 Evergreen forest 92 Emer gent herbaceous wetlands
43 Mixed forest

Figure 2-2. NLCD data for the conterminous United States.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

18 2.2.5.2 Soil pH
The STATSGO database developed by USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service was used to specify the soil pH necessary for deve loping our emissions inventory. These soils data are available as geospatial coverages and associated attribute tables for each state in the U.S., and require considerable effort to calculate and extr act the relevant parameters. Detailed documentation of the database and data stru ctures can be found in USDA (1994).
To reduce the resource-intensive data processi ng required with the complete STATSGO database, processed soils datasets were obtained fr om the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at Pennsylvania State Universi ty via anonymous ftp at http://www.essc.psu.edu/soil_info/ . The datasets archived by the ESSC include a single GIS coverage of soil pH for the conterminous U.S. (Figure 2-3).

Figure 2-3. Mean soil pH for the conterminous United States.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

19 2.2.5.3 Meteorological data
Meteorological data were derived from MM5 simulations for 2002 on th e RPO Unified domain. Data required as input to the GIS-based ammonia emissions modeling system include wind speeds, ambient temperatures, soil temperatures, and soil moisture. These data were extracted from the MM5 output files and reformatted for use in the GIS-based modeling system.


### 2.2.6 GIS-based modeling
We developed a GIS-based modeling system to ge nerate a gridded ammoni a emissions inventory that includes the improvements identified for this project. The county-le vel activity data were used in conjunction with the a ppropriate emission factors and environmental factors described above to generate the gridded inventory on the RPO Unified domain. The inventory is temporally resolved hourly. A detailed discussion of the design and implementation of the modeling system is presented in Ch itjian and Mansell (2003b).
As noted earlier, the GIS-based modeling systemwas developed using AML and the latest version of ArcGIS. The model inco rporates our improved estimation algorithms, includes a userfriendly GUI, and allows easy modification of activ ity data, emission factors, and associations between ammonia emission source categories’ LU LC characteristics. The modeling system was populated with all the necessary data to produce an ammonia inve ntory for the U.S. portion of the RPO Unified domain for 2002 at a 36-km sp atial resolution. See Chitjian and Mansell (2003b) for further information.
As discussed in Mansell (2004c), the modeling system applies gr idding surrogates to the countylevel emission estimates on an annual basis (or m onthly for fertilizer application emissions). Effects of soil pH on the emission factors for fertilizer applicati on are applied to the annual gridded ammonia emission estimates. Other environmenta l factors are incorporated in the temporal allocation modules, since these factors impact the diurnal variation of em issions through gridded, hourly temperatures and wind speeds. An exception applies for the emissions from native soils: for this source category, the effects of soil condi tions (pH and moisture) and meteorological data are both incorporated in the emissions estimat es during the temporal allocation process.



### 2.3 2002 Ammonia Emissions inventory

As stated earlier, the 2002 ammonia emissions i nventory developed for th is project includes the source categories of livestock ope rations, fertilizer usage, domestic sources, native soils, and wild animals; see Table 2-1 for the subcategor ies under each of these. Below we present the inventory in terms of the complete inventor y and also by major source category. A comparison with the results of the CMU Ammonia Model is also presented. A more detailed discussion of the 2002 ammonia emissions inventory can be found in Mansell (2004a).

Table 2-9 shows the annual ammonia emissions estimates for calendar year 2002 by state for each of the five major source categories above. W ith the exception of the soil pH adjustments to fertilizer emission factors, the re sults presented here for fertilizer usage, livestock operations, and native soil emissions do not reflect the effects of environmental fact ors, as explained before. InFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

20 general, the ammonia inventory is dominated by livestock operati ons, fertilizer usage, and native soil emissions, as expected. This trend varies by state, with largely agricultural regions representing the majority of the emissions from thes e source categories. A lthough native soil ammonia emissions are highly uncertain, the variation in emissions from this category across states reflects the variation in land use types within each stat e. The magnitude of domestic-source emissions are reflective of the population in each state, base d on the 2000 U.S. Census data used as activity data. Ammonia emissions from wild animals ar e based on activity data and emission factors extracted from the CMU Ammonia Model. The wild animal data were not scrutinized in detail, and clearly there are some omissi ons and/or inconsistencies in the datasets, as discussed in Section 2.3.5.
Figure 2-4 gives a graphical represen tation of the data in Table 2-9.

Table 2-9. Annual 2002 NH 3 emissions by state (tons).

State Livestock Operations Fertilizer Usage Native Soils Domestic Sources Wild Animals TOTAL
AL 34,306 5,562 15,793 2,259 7,500 65,419 AZ 10,331 12,109 102,837 2,553 1,798 129,628 AR 45,396 38,744 14,578 1,365 4,023 104,107 CA 97,721 78,052 102,447 16,704 302 295,225 CO 34,133 18,848 74,967 2,127 5,586 135,661 CT 1,802 796 1,937 1,668 375 6,577 DE 4,607 888 531 387 110 6,523 DC 0 0 9 272 0 281 FL 20,562 3,300 28,667 6,632 6 59,167 GA 38,408 6,468 18,229 4,132 5,203 72,440 ID 30,082 31,442 51,230 660 3,425 116,839 IL 48,391 120,817 6,361 6,137 3,699 185,405 IN 38,690 46,642 4,418 3,055 2,123 94,928 IA 159,638 120,694 6,729 1,472 1,500 290,032 KS 69,753 100,340 44,151 1,351 748 216,344 KY 34,476 26,858 12,066 2,049 2,184 77,633 LA 9,326 15,273 18,973 2,246 5,001 50,820 ME 2,321 924 10,449 645 1,299 15,638 MD 11,049 4,294 2,753 2,604 974 21,673 MA 1,487 405 3,059 3,079 304 8,334 MI 25,964 26,409 22,820 4,954 8,874 89,021 MN 86,787 114,864 26,827 2,460 4,587 235,525 MS 26,361 14,228 13,630 1,469 7,498 63,186 MO 62,834 61,084 16,543 2,798 3,820 147,079 MT 24,926 31,376 102,946 454 4,024 163,727 NE 80,050 91,584 48,356 859 1,255 222,105 NV 4,415 1,395 106,982 988 92 113,872Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

21 State Livestock Operations Fertilizer Usage Native Soils Domestic Sources Wild Animals TOTAL
NH 967 56 3,150 619 335 5,128 NJ 1,268 808 2,425 4,101 931 9,532 NM 21,397 5,599 112,468 913 1,414 141,791 NY 33,157 4,471 14,724 9,289 3,673 65,315 NC 101,463 6,771 17,005 4,071 5,517 134,827 ND 21,540 95,026 32,021 323 1,141 150,051 OH 34,443 55,453 7,192 5,632 2,049 104,769 OK 72,221 37,626 35,297 1,740 1,652 148,535 OR 17,325 22,988 55,624 1,691 3,361 100,989 PA 46,840 8,924 13,934 6,014 5,894 81,605 RI 112 56 450 507 52 1,176 SC 10,754 3,864 10,081 2,025 4,249 30,973 SD 50,786 66,051 43,705 386 1,316 162,244 TN 29,369 14,680 12,330 2,861 3,704 62,944 TX 146,410 83,349 175,959 10,502 18,012 434,233 UT 17,458 2,091 62,973 1,150 1,623 85,295 VT 6,529 624 3,087 309 635 11,183 VA 26,787 8,352 12,851 3,501 4,021 55,512 WA 18,349 17,300 28,024 2,911 2,186 68,771 WV 6,449 1,331 9,465 911 3,790 21,947 WI 73,031 28,807 16,352 2,674 6,932 127,795 WY 15,159 11,037 93,013 246 2,944 122,400 TOTAL 1,755,633 1,448,659 1,620,414 137,752 151,744 5,114,202Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

22 Annual NH3 Emissions (tpy) - WRAP NH3 Model

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000ALAZARCACOCTDEDCFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY

StateNH3 (tpy) Fertilizer Livestock
Domestic Wild_Animals Native_Soils

Figure 2-4. 2002 annual NH 3 emissions by source category and state in tons per year (tpy).



### 2.3.1 Livestock operations
Figure 2-5 presents the 2002 annual livestock emissions by animal type for each the WRAP states. Beef cattle, dairy cattle, and swine cont ribute approximately 87% of the total livestock emissions across all 13 states. The majority of dairy cattle emissions are found in California. Beef cattle emissions are more evenly distributed across the WR AP region, with the exception of Arizona and Nevada; South Dakota shows the high est amount of ammonia emissions from beef cattle. The remaining source categories (swine, poultry, horses, and sheep) are minor contributors of livestock ammonia em issions across the WRAP region.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

23 2002 Annual Livestock NH3 Emissions

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

Arizona
C a l iforn i a Colo ra do Id ah

o M onta n a Nevada New Me x ic

o North Dakota O re

gon

So

u th Dakota U ta

h

Wa

s hin

g ton Wy om

i ng

StateNH3 (tpy) Beef Cattle Dairy Cattle Swine Poultry Horses Sheep

Figure 2-5. Annual livestock NH 3 emissions by animal type for WRAP states.

Tabulated livestock ammonia em issions by state and animal t ype are presented in Mansell (2004a), as is the spatial dist ribution of total annual livest ock ammonia emissions. Both the county-level emissions and the gridded emission estimates generated using the display modules of the GIS-based modeling system are given in th e draft report for this task (Mansell, 2004a).



### 2.3.2 Fertilizer application
Figure 2-6 shows the 2002 annual fertilizer appli cation emissions by fert ilizer type for the WRAP states. The majority of fertilizer am monia emissions are found in California and the Dakotas. The distribution among the various fertiliz er types can also be seen. Note that these emission summaries include the dependence of emi ssion factors on soil pH. As expected, states with large agricultural regions dominate the fertilizer-usage ammonia emissions.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

24 2002 Annual Fertilixer NH3 Emissions

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY
StateNH3 (tpy) Anhydrous Ammonia Aqua Ammonia Nitrogen Solutions

Urea

Ammonium Nitrate
Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonia Thiosulfate Ammonium Phosphates
Calcium Ammonium Nitrate

Miscellaneous

Figure 2-6. Annual fertilizer NH 3 emissions by fertilizer type for WRAP states.

Tabulated fertilizer-usage ammonia emissions by state and fertilizer type can be found in Mansell (2004a), as can the sp atial distribution of total mont hly fertilizer-usage ammonia emissions.
To assess the impact of the adjustments made to account for soil pH, we estimated the emissions for this source category based on unadjusted emission factors. Figure 2-7 displays the annual fertilizer ammonia emissions both with emission factor adjustments (dat aset a0) and without them (dataset a1). The difference between these tw o cases is relatively minor at the state level. The differences are both positive and negative, as the soil pH varies regionally.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

25 Comparison of Annual Fertilizer NH3 Emissions - Datasets a1 vs a0

0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 90,000 105,000 120,000 135,000 150,000ALAZARCACOCTDEDCFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY

StateNH3 (tpy) Fertilizer (a1) Fertilizer (a0)

Figure 2-7. Annual fertilizer NH 3 emissions: dataset a0 is with pH effects, dataset a1 is without them.



### 2.3.3 Native soils
Figure 2-8 presents the 2002 annual native soil ammonia emissions by land use type for the WRAP states. Note that these emission summaries do not reflect the dependence of soil emissions on environmental factors; as discussed in Mansell (2004a), these factors are incorporated during the temporal allocation pr ocedures in the modeling system . The variation seen in soil emissions across the WRAP region reflects the land use characteristics of each state. These emissions are dominated by shrubland and grassl and, which reflects the characteristics of the land use/cover types in the western U.S. and th eir relatively high emissi on factors. The spatial distribution of total annual native soil ammonia emissions is presen ted in the draft report for this task (Mansell, 2004a).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

26 2002 Annual Native Soil NH3 Emissions

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY
StateNH3 (tpy) Urban Barren Deciduous Forest Evergreen Forest Mixed Forest Shrubland Grassland Fallow Urban Grass Wetlands

Figure 2-8. Annual native soil NH 3 emissions by land use type for WRAP states.



### 2.3.4 Domestic sources
Figure 2-9 gives the 2002 annual ammonia emissions from domestic sources for the 13-state WRAP region. The magnitude of domestic-source em issions reflects the population in each state, based on the 2000 U.S. Census data used as activ ity data. Emissions from California dominate the contribution to the inventor y from this source category, re flecting the state’s higher population. Displays of the spatial distribution of total annual domestic-s ource ammonia emissions are presented in Mansell (2004a).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

27 2002 Anual Domestic Source NH3 Emissions

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY
StateNH3 (tpy) Respiration Perspiration Cloth Diapers Disposable Diapers

Cats Dogs

Figure 2-9. Annual domestic-source NH 3 emissions by source type for WRAP states.



### 2.3.5 Wild animals
Figure 2-10 presents the 2002 annual ammonia em issions from wild animals for the WRAP states. Domainwide, results are dominated by the d eer emissions estimates, consistent with the large deer populations in the activity data. While elk populations are considerably smaller than those of other animals in most states (based on the CMU data), the emi ssion factor for elk is much higher, resulting in a si gnificant contribution by elk to the wild animal source category emissions. However, as noted previously, the activ ity data and emission factors were taken from the CMU Ammonia Model “as is.” The emission resu lts highlight some of the deficiencies in those datasets. For example, alt hough the figure shows that elk domin ate the emissions, in reality a significant contribution from deer should be seen in several of the states. Th is is not reflected in the CMU activity datasets; for California, for instance, the data show no deer populations. The spatial distribution of total annual wild animal a mmonia emissions is presented in the draft task report (Mansell, 2004a). A review of the displays in that report also highlights dataset problems for Florida and Nevada. As this source category is a relatively minor cont ributor to the overall ammonia emissions inventory, no corrective act ion was taken to rectify these problems.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

28 2002 Annual WIld Animal NH3 Emissions

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY
StateNH3 (tpy) Black bears Grizzly bears

Elk Deer

Figure 2-10. Annual wild animal NH 3 emissions by animal type for WRAP states.



### 2.3.6 Comparison with CMU emission estimates
We compared the ammonia emissions inventory we developed against results obtained from the CMU Ammonia Model for the source categories c onsidered. This comparison served as check on the reasonableness and consistency of our invent ory, as well as an assessment of the various environmental factors incorporated in the mode ling system. The CMU mode l was applied for all states in the conterminous U.S. to obtain m onthly and annual ammonia emission estimates for the five major source categories estimated for the WRAP.
Figure 2-11 compares the total 2002 annual amm onia emissions, by state, between the CMU model and the WRAP inventory. In general, the ove rall state-level emission totals were comparable for most states. For some states, the CMU emission estimates were higher than those from the WRAP model, while for othe rs the WRAP model estimates we re the higher ones. Certainly, differences in the estimation methodologies, activ ity data, and emission f actors contributed to these differences in ammonia emissions. For example, the CMU model treats livestock emissions using a processed-based approach, while our sy stem considers this source category using a “whole animal” approach. Other differences and similarities between the two inventories areFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

29 described in Mansell (2004a) for each major s ource category. Considering the emissions uncertainties associated with some source categories (e.g., native so ils), overall the two inventories compared quite favorably. A more comple te comparison between the WRAP and CMU ammonia emissions inventories is presen ted and discussed in Mansell (2004a).

Comparison of Annual Total NH3 Emissions - CMU Model vs WRAP NH3 Model

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000ALAZARCACOCTDEDCFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY

StateNH3 (tpy) CMU WRAP

Figure 2-11. Comparison of total 2002 annual ammonia emissions between the CMU and WRAP models.



### 2.4 Summary and Recommendations

The results of the WRAP ammonia emissions inventory improvement task are summarized below. Also included here are recommendations regarding improvements in data quality and enhancements to the ammonia invent ory and emissions modeling system.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

30 

### 2.4.1 Summary
We created a gridded modeling ammonia emissi ons inventory for the following major source categories: livestock operations, fertilizer application, native so ils, domestic sources, and wild animals (see Table 2-1 for a breakdown). We developed the inventory using the improvements and estimation methodologies described above and documented in detail in Chitjian and Mansell (2003a,b). The improvements, based on a literature survey of recent research in ammonia emissions inventory development, were associated w ith the effects of environmental parameters on the emission factors, and temporal and spatia l allocation of ammonia emissions for several source categories. A GIS-based ammonia emission s modeling system was developed and applied for calendar year 2002 to generate a gridded, hour ly emissions inventory for the WRAP modeling domain at a spatial resolution of 36 km. The da ta sources and environmental factors used in the inventory improvements are presented in mo re detail in the draft task report (Mansell, 2004a).

The 2002 ammonia emissions invent ory for the WRAP domain is dominated, on a regional scale, by fertilizer application and lives tock operation emissions. This resu lt is entirely consistent with the current understanding of am monia emissions within the air quality and emissions modeling community. Ammonia emission from native soils, while a major component of the overall inventory, remains highly uncertain. The uncertainty arises mainly from unresolved issues in the research community regarding wh ether soils act as a source or a sink of ammonia. Ammonia emissions from domestic sources, while only a small contributor to the total regional ammonia inventory, can be a major source of emissions on smaller, urban scales. The wild animal ammonia emissions, although only a small portion of the i nventory, were included at the request of the WRAP Emissions Forum.
A comparison of the WRAP ammo nia inventory with similar results obtained from the CMU Ammonia Model was summarized above and is di scussed in greater deta il in Mansell (2004a). Based on state-level comparisons, the results of this task are seen to be consistent with existing ammonia emissions inventories. Evaluation of the differences and similaritie s, and further investigation of the two emissions inventories for deta iled source categories at the county level, may provide useful insights into potential enhancemen ts to the inventory a nd the emissions modeling system.



### 2.4.2 Recommendations
We make the following recommendations with resp ect to improving data qua lity and refining the ammonia inventory and emissions modeling system:

• The quality and detail of ac tivity data collected for the study should be improved. In particular, livestock head counts for large CAFOs should be obtaine d and reconciled with the county-level activity data. This would allow improved spa tial allocation of these large CAFO sources as point emissions sources.

• The current inventory could be improved furt her by obtaining detailed information on the specific types of livesto ck. For example, the current inve ntory considered beef cattle and dairy cattle in aggregate (i.e ., independent of the specific pr ocesses occurring at the farmFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

31 level and using a single “whole animal” emission factor.) Given the recent trend toward a process-based emission estimation methodology, em ission factors for the different stages of an animal’s lifetime are av ailable and can be used, given the appropriate activity data. Similarly, the WRAP model treated poultry as a composite, rather than separately for broilers, layers, pullets, etc., for wh ich emission factors are available.

• The temporal allocation of th e inventory would benefit from the collection of activity data on a monthly basis for livestock operati ons, as is done for fertilizer usage data.

• Ammonia emissions from native soils should be evaluated to see whether implementing some of the modeling techniques currently undergoing research and development with respect to ammonia emission and depos ition would improve their estimation.

• The existing inventory was generated at a spatial resolution of 36 km, for two reasons: the air quality modeling will be conducted at this resolution, and the meteorological data necessary for applying the various environmental factors used for this task were available only at 36-km resolution at the time the inventory wa s developed. Higher spatial resolution of meteorological da ta would allow development of emissions data at a higher resolution, thus improving th e overall spatial allocation of various emission source categories. The GIS-based modeling system is already capable of handling modeling domains of arbitrary spatia l resolution. Results from running the ammonia model using the latest 12-km MM5 modeling results will be documented in the final report for this task.

• While domestic-source ammonia seems to be a relatively small component of the inventory, refinement of these emissions es timates using 2002 population estimates would provide additional improvements in the overall emissions inventory.

• The activity data used in developing the wild animal emissions should be reviewed and updated to address the various probl ems and omissions we identified.

• Some additional ammonia emission sources coul d be added to the current inventory. The ammonia emissions modeling system we developed is de signed to treat essentially any source category, provided the activity and emission factor data are available.

• With respect to source cla ssification of anthropogenic ve rsus natural, all source categories estimated by the ammonia model except native soils and wild animal emissions should be considered anthr opogenic sources of ammonia emissions.



### 2.5 Status of Task 0.5 Deliverables

Table 2-10 gives the status of each Task 0.5 de liverable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliv erables agreed upon after th e work plan was prepared.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

32 Table 2-10. Status of the Task 0.5 deliverables.

Deliverable Status Draft final task report Delivered August 26, 2004 Final task report Expected completion: March 18, 2005 User’s guide and modeling system E xpected completion: March 18, 2005Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

33 

## 3. Task 1: Project Administration

3.1 Project Administration
Project administration activities included communicating with WRAP members and other WRAP contractors; participati ng in monthly conference calls w ith the RMC project management team and with the WRAP Air Quality Modeling Forum; attending or par ticipating by teleconference in meetings with several of the othe r WRAP forums; prepari ng project reports and a quality assurance project plan (QAPP); and main taining and updating the project web page and project mailing lists.
During 2004, the RMC team participat ed in the following meetings:

• Air Quality Modeling Forum M eeting, January, Phoenix, AZ

• RPO Modeling Discussion Group Meeting, May, Denver, CO

• Attribution of Haze Meeting, July, Denver, CO

• Emissions Forum Conference Call, August 27

• Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meeting (by phone), September 9, Worley, ID

• Attribution of Haze Meeting, Se ptember, Salt Lake City, UT

• Attribution of Haze Meeting, November, Las Vegas, NV

• Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meeting, December, Las Vegas, NV
Because the RMC contract in 2004 included proj ects under the direction of the WRAP’s Air Quality Modeling Forum, Fire Emissions Joint Fo rum, Dust Emissions Joint Forum, and Emissions Forum, there were frequent conference ca lls to coordinate and report progress on the various subtasks within the work plan.



### 3.2 Computer Systems Administration
Computer systems administration included mainte nance, updates, expansion, and optimization of the computing systems. All emissions, meteor ology, and air quality modeling was performed on RMC computer equipment located at UCR; st aff from UNC-CEP and ENVIRON have accounts on these computer systems. Much of the comput er hardware used for the WRAP modeling was purchased in 2001 or early 2002, and is no longer under warranty. As a result, considerable effort was required to maintain and repair the computing systems.
We also experimented with new CPUs, network equipment, and system configurations to optimize the computer system performance duri ng 2004. UCR had previously ported CMAQ to Linux, implemented a parallel version of CM AQ in Linux, and ported CMAQ to the 64-bit Opteron CPUs. During 2004 we attempted to port CMAQ to the Apple G5/PowerPC CPU (aFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

34 new 64-bit CPU that was priced competitively with Athlon and In tel CPUs). We were motivated to complete the port because we felt that the Apple/G5 systems would have better performance and be more reliable than PC systems. After c onsiderable effort invest ed in porting the code, however, we were unable to achieve good perf ormance of CMAQ on the G5/PowerPC platform. We still believe it would be worthwhile to cons ider operating CMAQ on the G5 in the long term, but the effort needed to optimize CMAQ for th e G5/PowerPC platform will require greater resources than were available to the RMC in 2004 for this activity. The CMAS Center at UNCCEP is currently working on this project. Given that the RMC is already heavily invested in PC/Linux systems, we plan to complete the project with PC/Linux hardware; however, we recommend that states and tribes who are purchas ing new hardware consider the G5 systems if the CMAS Center is able to optimi ze CMAQ and SMOKE for that platform.
Within the PC/Linux platforms there are a variet y of CPU choices. We be lieve that the Athlon CPUs are the most cost effective, and we pur chased new test systems for the Athlon CPU to perform benchmarks for comparison to the more expensive Opteron systems. Benchmarks on the 36-km domain showed that the ch eaper Athlon system’s performance was very similar to that of the Opteron system.
Increased computational and input/output load from running multiple model simulations and increasing domain size have conti nued to increase the network traffic associated with the modeling effort. During 2004 we purchased a new hi gh-speed network switch to reduce problems resulting from network congestion. We also conti nued to experiment with system configurations to attempt to reduce network congestion and improve system I/O performance.
As of February 2005, we continue to experience problems with CMAQ jobs crashing in simulations using multiple CPUs. Usually this occurs when a CMAQ job fails to start after the completion of a previous day’s simulation. This is caused by communication failure between CPUs on different machines. Jobs using one or two CPUs run without difficulty, but jobs using four or more CPUs will fail to restart on average about 10% of the time. This requires considerable effort to monitor and manually restart CMAQ jobs when they fail to start. This problem may occur only on the UCR cluster, perhaps because of the large number of CPUs and/or the amount of disk storage in the cluster, and the resul ting heavy load on net comm unications. Other groups have not reported this problem, so it is likely that states or tribes will not experience it, but it is a possibility worth noting here.
We expect that computer hardware will need to be upgraded and expanded before doing large numbers of emissions sensitivity simulations during 2005. Hardware needs will depend on the number of model simulations to be performed and whether we r un only the 36-km model or both the 36-km and 12-km models. We believe that the RMC’s current computing facilities are sufficient to handle the 36-km modeling and a lim ited number of 12-km simulations. Additional CPUs will be needed if we perform a large number of 12-km simulations. We will need additional data storage for mode ling control strategies during 2005.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

35 

### 3.3 Status of Task 1 Deliverables
Table 3-1 gives the status of each Task 1 deliv erable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliverables agreed upon after the work plan was prepared.

Table 3-1. Status of th e Task 1 deliverables.

Deliverable Status Biweekly Modeling Forum (MF) conference call Ongoing. Switched to a monthly MF call and a monthly RMC project management call in October 2004. Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) Completed first draft in Se ptember 2004. Revised version completed in December 2004. Monthly project reports Combined into a single interim report for January through September 2004. Monthly reports began in August 2004; see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/progress_reports04.shtml

. Periodic web site updates Web site has been periodically updated with reports, PowerPoint files, QA products, and evaluation results; see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/

. MM5, emissions, and CMAQ data files Datasets are available via portable disk drives.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

36 

## 4. Task 2: Test, Improve, Quality Control, Obtain External Peer Review, and Finalize 36-km and 12-km MM5 Simulations for Eventual Use in CMAQ

To support CMAQ visibility modeling for the § 308 SIPs/TIPs, the RMC has carried out MM5 simulations for the entire year of 2002 on grids with resolutions of 36 km and 12 km. In this section, we first describe the process through which the optimal MM5 model configuration was determined. We then give an overview of the performance of the final WRAP 2002 annual 36-km and 12-km simulations.



### 4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 Task history

In the fall of 2003, we made an initial MM5 run for the year 2002 on the RPO Unified Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain. The model conf iguration for this run was based on a prior 2002 MM5 application undertaken by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) (Matthew Johnson, IDNR, personal communication, 2003), which was in turn set according to the optimal MM5 physics options that resulted from an in-depth se nsitivity project carried out by IDNR and the Lake Michigan Air Directors C onsortium (LADCO). While the IDNR simulations used MM5 version 3.5, the applicati ons carried out for the WRAP us ed the latest version of the model (v3.6.1) available at th e end of 2003. Additional modifications to the physics configuration and application methodology were made for th e WRAP simulation based on the latest information from EPA, IDNR, LADCO, and others. Firs t, we opted to use the Reisner 2 mixed-phase cloud microphysics package (Reisner et al., 1998) , according to suggestions from EPA/ORD. Second, the INTERPPX option, which allows for con tinuous soil moisture initialization from one run segment to the next, was not used, ba sed on poor performance reported by IDNR and LADCO.

The initial 2002 36-km WRAP simu lation (referred to hereafter as Run 0) results showed that MM5 performed better in the central and eastern U. S. than in the West, and generally performed better in winter than in summer(Morris et al., 2004a; Kemball- Cook et al., 2004). In the western U.S., the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle was persistently underestimated during the summer, especially in the Southw est. In the desert Southwest, the humidity was greatly overestimated during the summer as well, and there was a pronounced cold bias. Some of these problems appeared to be linked to the excessive simu lated precipitation genera ted by MM5 during the summer, especially in the Sout hwest. This can have serious repercussions for CMAQ modeling, since too much rain can “wash out” pollutants, while the too cool, humid, and cloudy environment may lead to incorrect pol lutant chemistry and aerosol thermodynamics. Temperature and humidity problems overshadowed the surface wind performance, which was not particularly good, but was likely affected by sm aller-scale topographic influen ces that are not well represented even at the finer 12-km resolution. Wi nd performance improved quickly with heightFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

37 above the surface, suggesting th at regional transport speeds/ directions were reasonably represented.
In April 2004, we undertook initial sensitivity tests for a five-d ay period in July 2002 for the RPO Unified domain in an attempt to find alte rnative MM5 configuratio ns that would improve the poor summertime performance at 36 km. Furthe rmore, in-depth analyses were conducted to compare our performance against 36-km MM5 runs made for the Visibility Improvement – State and Tribal Associations of the Southeast (V ISTAS) RPO, and against operational Eta Data Assimilation System (EDAS) fields. From these analyses, we found that the use of the KainFritsch II scheme (as in the VISTAS 2002 MM5 m odeling) improved, but did not entirely solve, the precipitation overprediction problem. We also found that removal of soil moisture nudging improved temperature and humidity performance for the short summ ertime tests. The evaluation of the EDAS fields used in the MM5 four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) revealed that EDAS did not exhibit the summertime cold, wet bi as in the Southeast, so the bias was not introduced by the FDDA. From these initial test s, we identified a new model configuration for the 36-km run (referred to as Run 5) for new annual 2002 simulations, and updated the WRAP MM5 modeling protocol to reflect this (see Ta ble 4-1). (“Analysis F DDA” and “observational FDDA” are defined in Section 4.2.)

Table 4-1. MM5 configurations from original (Run 0) and modified (Run 5) MM5 runs.*

Run

ID LSM PBL Cumulus Microphysics Analysis FDDA 3-D Surface Obs FDDA Soil Moisture Nudging

Run 0 PX ACM KF Reisner 2 W/T/H W/T/H None Yes Run 5 PX ACM KF II Reisner 2 W/T/H W/T/H None No

*Abbreviations used in this table: LSM = land-surf ace model; PBL = planetary bou ndary layer; FDDA = fourdimensional data assimilation; obs = observational; PX = Pleim-Xiu; ACM = Asymmetric Convective Model; KF = Kain-Fritsch; W/T/H = wind/temperature/humidity.

Although the configuration identified in the ne w MM5 modeling protocol did improve humidity, temperature, and precipitation performance over the short July test period (especially where improvement was needed most), the desert Southw est continued to exhibit unsatisfactory levels of precipitation and humidity. As stated above, th ese issues will likely play crucial roles in CMAQ performance.
These initial MM5 sensitivity simulations attempted to identify a better-performing 36-km MM5 simulation that could be used to simulate all of 2002 but retain the Pleim-Xiu (PX) land-surface model (LSM) and the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) planetary boundary layer (PBL) options. When results of the Run 5 model perf ormance were presented at the May 24-25, 2004, national RPO modeling meeting in Denver, CO (E mery et al., 2004), there were still concerns about the 2002 MM5 model performance in the we stern U.S. Thus, WRAP requested that the RMC perform further MM5 sensitivity tests to identify a better-performing configuration, including investigating (1) alternat ive LSM/PBL configurations to PX/ACM and (2) the possibilityFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

38 of using different MM5 configurat ions for different times of year . After the performance issues at 36-km resolution had been addressed, we could then turn our attention to MM5’s performance on the WRAP nested 12-km grid.


### 4.1.2 Summary of approach
During the summer of 2004, we car ried out additional 36-km MM5 te st simulations in an attempt to further improve MM5 performance on that grid . The latest available version of MM5 (v3.6.2) was used. Since the most severe problems for the initial WRAP 2002 MM5 annual simulation were the wet bias and precipitation overestimation in summer, we first investigated these issues for the five-day July test period (July 1-5, 2002) on the 36-km grid to maximize computational efficiency. We tested four phys ics options: (1) the cumulus pa rameterization; (2) the LSMs; (3) the PBL models; and (4) FDDA.
The first group of tests focused on the cumulus parameterization, which is the major MM5 component responsible for the overstated summertime rainfall. Most of the summer rainfall in the U.S. is due to convective clouds; stratiform ra in produced by midlatitude cyclones is a smaller fraction of the total rainfall in summer than in winter. We examined the performance of the Kain-Fritsch II, Betts-Miller, and Grell cumulus schemes.
Next, we conducted a series of tests using different combinati ons of PBL and LSM options. In other MM5 applications around th e country, including in Califo rnia, we have achieved good model performance using the historically standa rd five-layer slab m odel as well as the NOAH LSM. Our choices for PBL models include the Eta scheme , the ACM, the Blackadar scheme, and our “modified” Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) m odel (M-MRF). The standard MRF available with MM5 is known to contain deficiencies that lead to overestimates of mixing depth and diurnal phase lags in wind speed due to overe stimates of surface mo mentum flux. Our simple modifications have been shown to fix these problems (ATMET, 2003).
In the past, we have avoided performing MM5 se nsitivity tests that altered the Pleim-Xiu/ACM LSM/PBL configuration because it is recomm ended by EPA and it has been shown by other RPOs (e.g., VISTAS) to provide the best overall meteorologica l model performance and best CMAQ performance (Olerud and Sims, 2003; Morris et al., 2004b). Also, it allows the use of the Pleim-Xiu dry deposition scheme in CMAQ, which is technically superior and performs better than the alternative (Wesely scheme). However, because most of the MM5 Pleim-Xiu tests to date have focused on the eastern U.S., and given the importance of the LSM/PBL scheme to MM5 performance, we tested alte rnative LSM/PBL schemes to see if they would provide better performance in the western United States.

Once the cumulus and LSM/PBL schemes had been selected, we performed a series of experiments to determine the best FDDA configuration. Finally, because the ab ove sensitivity tests were done for July only, we ran 5-d segments in winter, spring, and fall to assess whether the performance showed improvement in seasons other than summer. Once we had an optimal configuration, we went back a nd tested it against the original MM5 run from the initial WRAP 2002 36-km modeling (Table 4-1, Run 0), and also against our interim Run 5 configuration from Table 4-1. We then examined the non-WRAP subdomains to determine how the new set of physics options affected MM5’s performance in the eastern U.S.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

39 After settling on a configuration for the 36-km annual run, we turned ou r attention to MM5’s performance on the WRAP nested 12-km grid. Furt her sensitivity tests at this resolution were undertaken, allowing for the possibility that the 36-km physics options might differ from those selected for the 12-km run. Sections 4.2 through 4.6 provide details on each step of the approach just discussed.



### 4.2 Additional 36-km MM5 Sensitivity Tests
Table 4-2 shows the additional 36-km MM5 sensitivity tests discussed above that were used to identify a better MM5 configuration for simulatin g meteorology in the western U.S. These sensitivity tests differed in the choice of LSM, PBL scheme, cumulus parameterization, explicit cloud microphysics, and type and level of FDDA. Be low are the various schemes tested in this study. No soil moisture nudging was performed for any of the runs.

• LSMs: NOAH; Pleim-Xiu (PX) ; five-layer slab

• PBL Schemes: Eta; modified MRF (M-MRF); As ymmetric Convective Model (ACM); Blackadar

• Cumulus Schemes: Betts-Miller (BM); Grell; Kain-Fritsch II (KF II)

• Cloud Microphysics Schemes: simple ice; Reisner 2

• FDDA: W = wind; T = temperature; H= humidity. “Analysis FD DA” refers to analysis (grid) nudging; “observational FDDA” indicate s that FDDA is used to nudge the model solution toward observational data at individual measurement sites.

Table 4-2. Summary of addition al MM5 sensitivity tests.

Run ID LSM PBL Cumulus Microphysics Analysis FDDA 3-D Surface Obs FDDA Run 1a NOAH Eta Betts-Miller Simple ice W/T/H W/T/H None Run 1ba NOAH M-MRF Betts-Miller Reisner 2 W/T/H W/T/H None Run 1bb NOAH M-MRF Betts-Miller Reisner 2 W/T/H W/T/H W Run 2a Pleim-Xiu ACM Betts-Miller Reisner 2 W/T/H W/T/H None Run 2aa Pleim-Xiu ACM Betts-Miller Reisner 2 W/T/H W None Run 2ac Pleim-Xiu ACM Betts-Miller Reisner 2 W/T/H W/T/H W/T/H Run 2ad Pleim-Xiu ACM Betts-Miller Reisner 2 W/T/H W W Run 2ae Pleim-Xiu ACM Betts-Miller Reisner 2 W/T/H W W Run 2b Pleim-Xiu ACM Grell Reisner 2 W/T/H W/T/H None Run 3a 5-layer Blackadar Betts-Miller Simple ice W/T/H W/T/H None Run 3b 5-layer M-MRF Betts-Miller Reisner 2 W/T/H W/T/H NoneFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

40 

### 4.3 Analysis Procedures
We conducted the MM5 sensitivity test evaluati on by examining the surface performance statistics using the METSTAT evaluation software package developed by ENVIRON, and by comparing the output MM5 total (conve ctive + large-scale) precipitation fields with gridded observed precipitation amounts. Observed precipitation da ta came from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gridded precipitation amount dataset, avai lable from the National Weather Service (NWS) CPC web site at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products /precip/realtime/retro.shtml

. The CPC daily precipitation amounts are on a grid th at covers the U.S. mainland at a resolution of 0.25° x 0.25°, and are ramped down to zero imme diately offshore. The advantage of this field is that it has a reasonably high resolution, which is especially important when it comes to resolving the effects of orography on precipitation over the western U. S. We calculated the performance statistics for surface wind, temperature, and humidity using METSTAT with the NCAR ds472 surface observa tions dataset.
Our analysis is organized around a type of s catterplot called “soccer plots,” developed by ENVIRON, that display average performance stat istics for each subdomain for the modeled time period. Subdomain definitions are shown in Fi gure 4-1; Table 4-3 lis ts the METSTAT subdomain numbers shown in Figure 4-1 and the co rresponding abbreviations used in the discussions below. Soccer plots usually plot average bias versus error for a meteorological variable. Model performance benchmarks or goals also plotted on the soccer plot are used to show whether the performance of the variable meet s the goal. In the following subsections, soccer plots are shown for wind speed bias versus wind speed root m ean squared error (RMSE), temperature bias versus temperature error, and humid ity bias versus humidity error. In each plot, a solid line indicates the benchmark. The benchm arks, developed by Emery and Tai (2001), were based upon the evaluation of more than 30 MM5 and Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) meteorological simulations in support of air quality applic ations performed in the last few years, as reported by Tesche et al. (2002). A data point that falls inside the box represents a model run that meets the performance benchmar k. Perfect model performance is indicated by a data point at (0,0); the closer a data point is to the origin, the better the model’s performance. We emphasize that the benchmarks are not used as acceptance/rejection crite ria of the MM5 model simulation. Rather, they put th e MM5 model performance into perspective and allow the identification of potential pr oblems in the MM5 fields.

Table 4-3. METSTAT subdomain abbreviations.

METSTAT Subdomain Name Abbreviation METSTAT Subdomain Name Abbreviation
1 PacNW 7 GreatLakes 2 SW 8 OhioVal 3 North 9 SEFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

41 METSTAT Subdomain Name Abbreviation METSTAT Subdomain Name Abbreviation
4 DesertSW 10 NE 5 CenrapN 11 MidAtl 6 CenrapS

Figure 4-1. Definition of METSTAT subdomains.



### 4.4 MM5 Sensitivity Test Results

4.4.1 Cumulus parameterization sensitivity test
We began by testing MM5’s sensitivity to the c hoice of cumulus paramete rization. The original 2002 MM5 run (Run 0) used the Kain-Fritsch scheme. Because results from VISTAS 36-km MM5 modeling showed improved surface fields rela tive to Run 0 using Kain-Fritsch II, KF IIFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

42 was the first scheme we tested (Run 5). Next, we compared runs that used the Grell (Run 2b) and Betts-Miller (Run2a) parameterizations to Run 5. A ll of these runs were made using the PX/ACM LSM/PBL schemes, the Reisner 2 cloud microphys ics scheme, W/T/H analysis nudging at the surface and aloft, and no FDDA nudging to observations (“obs nudging”).
Figure 4-2a summarizes the wind performance for the July 2002 test period. All three cumulus schemes show a low wind speed bias. For the SW, PacNW, and North subdomains, the Grell scheme has a smaller error than the other schemes, and is similar in bias. In the DesertSW subdomain, the Betts-Miller scheme slightly outperforms the others in both bias and error, but all three schemes are far from the benchmark for DesertSW.
Figure 4-2b shows the results for temperature. Al l three schemes show a general cold bias. The Betts-Miller scheme has the smallest overall bias , and does slightly better than the Grell scheme for error. The KF II scheme has the smallest e rror, except in the PacNW subdomain, in which it is an outlier. The Betts-Miller scheme has the be st overall temperature performance. It has the smallest bias, and although it has a slightly larger error than the KF II scheme for DesertSW, SW, and North, it does significantly better than KF II in the Pacific Northwest.
The humidity performance is shown in Figure 4-2c . Here again, the Betts-Miller scheme shows the best overall performance. For the SW and PacNW subdomains, the pe rformance of the three schemes is comparable, but the Be tts-Miller scheme is clearly be tter for the North and DesertSW subdomains.
Figure 4-3 is a plot of observed versus MM5 precipitation for th e modeled time period. All three runs are too wet across the north ern United States. Kain-Fritsch II has a strong wet bias, particularly in the SW and DesertSW subdomains, a nd also underpredicts the precipitation maximum over Texas. Both the Grell a nd Betts-Miller schemes produce a maximum over Texas, although they translate it to the southwest of the observed location. Overthe southwestern U.S., the BettsMiller precipitation field is closer to the observations than that from Grell, which generates too much rain in this region. Based on the improve ment in performance over the Southwest and Texas, we concluded that the Betts-Miller sche me produced the best simulation of precipitation for this time period.
Overall, of the three cumulus packages tested, Betts-Miller was the best-performing scheme for temperature, humidity, and precip itation. We therefore selected this scheme and used it in all subsequent runs as we continued with further sensitivity tests.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

43 WRAP 36 km July Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark Run 2a: Betts-Miller Run 2b: Grell Run 5: Kain-Fritsch II Cumulus Parameterization Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-2a. Wind soccer plot for cumulus parameterization sensitivity test.

WRAP 36 km July Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark Run 2a: Betts-Miller Run 2b: Grell Run 5: Kain-Fritsch II Cumulus Parameterization Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-2b. Temperature soccer plot for cumulu s parameterization sensitivity test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

44 WRAP 36 km Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark Run 2a:Betts-Miller Run 2b: Grell Run 5: Kain-Fritsch II Cumulus Parameterization Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-2c. Humidity soccer plot for cumulu s parameterization sensitivity test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

45 Figure 4-3. Precipitation comparison for the cumulus parameterization sensitivity test. Run 2a (top left): Betts-Miller; Run 2b (bo ttom left): Grell; Run 5 (bottom right): Kain-Fritsch II. Observed is shown at top right.



### 4.4.2 LSM/PBL sensitivity test
Next, we tested the LSM and PBL parameterizations . All of the runs desc ribed in this section used the Betts-Miller cumulus pa rameterization, W/T/H analysis nudg ing at the surface and aloft, and no obs nudging. We began by comparing the NOAH LSM (Run 1ba) with the five-layer model (Run 3b). In both runs, the modified MR F (M-MRF) PBL scheme and the Reisner 2 cloud microphysics scheme were used.
Figure 4-4a shows the wind performance for the Runs 1ba and 3b LSM sensitivity test. * Both the five-layer and NOAH runs show a low wind speed bias, with the bias more pronounced in the

* Note that Figures 4-4a through 4-4c include results for more than just these two runs. The other runs are discussed later in the text. The same is true for Figure 4-5.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

46 five-layer case. For both runs, the SW and P acNW subdomains lie within the benchmark, while North and DesertSW do not. The NOAH run performs better for all subdomains except for the DesertSW. For DesertSW, the NOAH run has a s lightly smaller bias, but a larger error.
The LSM temperature comparison is shown in Figur e 4-4b. Both runs have a cold bias, but the bias is remarkably pronounced for the NOAH run in the PacNW and North subdomains. The error is smaller for all subdomain s in the five-layer run, as is the bias in PacNW and North. For the SW and DesertSW subdomains, the NOAH run has a smaller bias, but larger error. Overall, the five-layer model temperature performance wa s an improvement over that of the NOAH run.
Figure 4-4c shows the humidity performance for th ese runs. There is an overall wet bias, exceptin the SW subdomain. For humidity, the NOAH run meets the performance goal, while the fivelayer run lies entirely outside the benchmark. The NOAH run performs better in the North and PacNW than in the SW and DesertSW subdomains.
The precipitation performance is shown in Figur e 4-5. Run 1ba does sligh tly better here, producing less rain over the desert Southw est states than does run 3b; Run 1ba is therefore closer to the observed rainfall field than Run 3b.
Overall, the NOAH model outperfor med the five-layer model. The five-layer model introduces a large positive humidity bias in the DesertSW and SW subdomains, which is one of the main problems from the original Run 0 that we were trying to ameliorate in this study. Having eliminated the five-layer LSM model from furthe r consideration, we then compared the NOAH/MMRF combination (Run 1ba) with th e run that used the PX/ACM c onfiguration (Run 2a), also in Figures 4-4 and 4-5.
Figure 4-4a displays the wi nd comparison for the NOAH/M-MRF and PX/ACM runs. The two runs show equivalent performance for erro r, and the NOAH/M-MRF run has a smaller overall bias. For temperature (Figure 4-4b), neither run meets the performance benchmark, but the PX/ACM run is a clear improvement in both bias and error over the NOAH/M-MRF run. Thecold bias is far more pronounced in the NOAH/M-MRF run for the PacNW and North subdomains.
For humidity (Figure 4-4c) there is not much difference between the two runs, except in DesertSW, where PX/ACM has a higher bias an d error. For precipitation, the PX/ACM run shows some slight improvement over the NOAH/ M-MRF case over the sout hwestern U.S. The intensity of the maximum over Texas is less well simulated in the PX/ACM run, however. Performance is roughly e quivalent elsewhere.
Overall, there was no single factor that made it easy to select one LSM/PBL scheme over the other. As there was no significant improveme nt in going to the NOAH/M-MRF configuration, we decided to use the PX/ACM configuration be cause it allows the use of the Pleim-Xiu dry deposition algorithm in subsequent CMAQ modeli ng, is endorsed by EPA, and allows consistency with the other RPOs.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

47 WRAP 36 km July Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark Run 1ba: NOAH-MRF Run 3b: 5 lyr-MRF Run 2a: PX-ACM Run 1bb: NOAH-MRF, OBS Nudged LSM/PBL Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-4a. Wind soccer plot for LSM/PBL parameterization sensitivity test.

WRAP 36 km July Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark Run 1ba: NOAH-MRF Run 3b: 5 lyr-MRF Run 2a: PX-ACM 1bb: NOAH-MRF, OBS Nudged LSM/PBL Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-4b. Temperature soccer plot for LSM/P BL parameterization sensitivity test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

48 WRAP 36 km Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark Run 1ba: NOAH-MRF Run 3b: 5 lyr-MRF Run 2a: PX-ACM Run 1bb: NOAH-MRF, OBS Nudged LSM/PBL Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-4c. Humidity soccer plot for LSM/P BL parameterization sensitivity test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

49

Figure 4-5. Precipitation comparison for the LSM/PBL parameterization sensitivity test.

Run 2a (top left): PX/ACM; Run 3b (bottom left): 5-layer/M-MRF; Run 1ba (bottom right): NOAH/M-MRF. Observed is shown at top right.



### 4.4.3 FDDA sensitivity test
Having selected a cumulus parameterization and an LSM/PBL combination, we turned to the FDDA configuration. The runs disc ussed in this secti on (2aa, 2ac, 2ad, and 2ae) differ only in their FDDA (see Table 4-2 for the run specificati ons); all use the PX/A CM, Betts-Miller, and Reisner 2 schemes and W/T/H analysis nudging aloft.
Figure 4-6a compares the wind performance for the runs with different FDDA configurations. For all runs, all subdomains except PacNW (2a and 2aa) and SW (2a) lie outside the benchmark. There is low wind speed bias for all runs and al l subdomains. Run 2a shows the smallest bias, while 2ac has the lowest overall error. It is difficult to say which runs exhibit the best wind performance based on this figure. Figure 4-6b shows the wind direction error versus the wind speed RMSE. In this figure, the effects of obs nudging on the surface wind field are apparent.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

50 Runs that had obs nudging (2ac, 2ad, and 2ae) lie t ogether closer to the benchmark than the runs that were not obs nudged (2aa).
For temperature (Figure 4-6c), Run 2ae clearly shows the best performa nce. All subdomains but one are within the benchmark; Run 2ae also has th e smallest bias and error. For humidity (Figure 4-6d), performance is comparable among the ru ns, and all subdomains except DesertSW lie within the benchmark. Differences in the precip itation fields for all the FDDA sensitivity runs were small (not shown) and did not help to distinguish among the runs in terms of performance.
On the basis of its superior temperature perfor mance and wind performance, which were similar to those of the best-performing runs, Run 2ae was determined to have the best FDDA configuration.

WRAP 36 km July Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark Run 2a Run 2aa Run 2ac Run 2ad Run 2ae FDDA Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-6a. Wind speed soccer plot for F DDA configuration sensitivity test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

51 WRAP 36 km July Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

0 20 40 60 Wind Direction Error (Degrees)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark Run 2a Run 2aa Run 2ac Run 2ad Run 2ae DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-6b. Wind speed/direction soccer plot for F DDA configuration sensitivity test.

WRAP 36 km July Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark Run 2a Run 2aa Run 2ac Run 2ad Run 2ae

FDDA Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-6c. Temperature soccer plot for FDDA configuration sensitivity test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

52 WRAP 36 km Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark Run 2a Run 2aa Run 2ac Run 2ad Run 2ae

FDDA Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-6d. Humidity soccer plot for F DDA configuration sensitivity test.

Next, to allow for the possibility that nudgi ng the NOAH/M-MRF case might cause significant improvement, we made another run (Run 1bb), whic h was identical to Run 2ae except that the NOAH/M-MRF LSM/PBL scheme was used instead of PX/ACM. The results are shown in Figures 4-7a through 4-7c, with the more weakly nu dged Run 1ba included to show the effects of nudging. For wind speed bias and error, Run 1bb ( NOAH) is a slight improvement over Run 2ae (PX), except for the SW subdomain, for which NOAH shows marked improvement over PX. For temperature, Run 2ae (PX) had a smaller bias and error than the other runs (NOAH). For humidity and precipitation, there is no r un that clearly performed better than the others. We selected Run 2ae (PX, with W/T/H analysis nudging at the surface and W observational nudging) as the best-performing run overall for July 2002, because the temperature performance is deemed to be more important than the wind performance, given that the terrain in the western U.S. may prevent good agreement between modeled and obs erved surface winds at 36-km resolution.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

53 WRAP 36 km July Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark Run 1ba Run 1bb Run 2ae DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-7a. Wind soccer plot for NO AH/M-MRF nudging sensitivity test.

WRAP 36 km July Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark Run 1ba 1bb Run 2ae DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-7b. Temperature soccer plot for NO AH/M-MRF nudging sensitivity test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

54 WRAP 36 km Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark Run 1ba Run 1bb Run 2ae DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-7c. Humidity soccer plot for NO AH/M-MRF nudging sensitivity test.



### 4.4.4 Tests in other seasons
Having determined a better MM5 co nfiguration based on the July sensitivity tests, we then moved to other parts of the year , leaving open the possibility th at we may use a different MM5 configuration for different times of year for the final year-long 2002 simulation. The two bestperforming runs overall for July (Runs 2ae and 1b b) were run for 5-d periods in January, April, and October, representing the winter, spring, and fall seasons.
Figures 4-8a through 4-8f show the performance of Runs 2ae and 1bb during the four 5-d runs representing the four seasons. We begin by comp aring the wind performance of the two runs for all four seasons (Figures 4-8a,b). For January, pe rformance in the PacNW, SW, and DesertSW is similar, while Run 1bb shows significant improveme nt in the North subdomain over Run 2ae. In both April and October, Run 1bb ha s generally lower bias and error, with the four subdomains clustered closer to the benchmark than in Run 2ae. In July, Run 1bb has a smaller bias, while Run 2ae has a smaller error. This is true fo r all subdomains except PacNW, for which Run 2ae has a smaller bias than Run 1bb. Overall, the n, Run 1bb performs better for wind throughout the year, with the points clustered cl oser to the benchmark. Note, howev er, that all points lie outside the benchmark for both simulations except for January PacNW and North for Run 1bb.
For temperature (Figures 4-8c,d) in January, Run 2ae has a smalle r bias and error for North and DesertSW. For SW, performance is similar, a nd for PacNW, Run 1bb has a smaller bias and error. In April, Run 1bb does bett er; in Run 2ae, PacNW and Nort h have a strong cold bias and lie far outside the benchmark. In July and Octobe r, Run 2ae performs better, with most of theFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

55 subdomains situated within the benchmark, while in Run 1bb all subdomains lie in a halo around the benchmark.
For humidity (Figures 4-8e,f), performance betw een the two runs is comparable. The precipitation performance (not shown) was similar enough that differences in the pr ecipitation fields were not useful in choosing between the two runs.
Figures 4-9a through 4-9c compare the observed precipitation (Figure 4-9a; for the U.S. only) versus estimated precipitation for Runs 2ae and 1bb (Figures 4-9b,c) for the four 5-d seasonal periods. There is good agreement between the obse rved and estimated precipitation in January. Both MM5 runs overstate the extent of the preci pitation in April and Ju ly, but agree with the observations fairly well in October. The precipit ation performance for Runs 2ae at 1bb is nearly identical.

WRAP 36 km Run 2ae Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark Jan Apr Oct Jul DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-8a. Wind soccer plot fo r Run 2ae seasonal test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

56 WRAP 36 km Run 1bb Seasonal Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark Jul Jan Apr Oct DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-8b. Wind soccer plot fo r Run 1bb seasonal test.

WRAP 36 km Run 2ae Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark Jul Jan Apr Oct DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-8c. Temperature soccer plot for Run 2ae seasonal test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

57 WRAP 36 km Run 1bb Seasonal Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark Jul Jan Apr Oct DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-8d. Temperature soccer plot for Run 1bb seasonal test.

WRAP 36 km Run 2ae Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark Jul Jan Apr Oct DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-8e. Humidity soccer plot for Run 2ae seasonal test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

58 WRAP 36 km Run 1bb Seasonal Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark Jul Jan Apr Oct DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-8f. Humidity soccer plot for Run 1bb seasonal test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

59

Figure 4-9a. CPC observed precipitation for th e five-day modeled segment in each season.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

60 Figure 4-9b. Seasonal precipitation test for Run 2ae (PX).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

61 Figure 4-9c. Seasonal precipitati on test for Run 1bb (M-MRF).



### 4.4.5 Selection of best-performing run
The regional haze events critical for WRAP CM AQ modeling tend to occur in the summer. We therefore selected Run 2ae, wh ich gave better temperature pe rformance during the summer, as the best-performing run overall. In the July simu lation, the winds and humidity were comparable between Runs 2ae and 1bb. The performance impr ovement in Run 1bb in January and April was insufficient reason to switch the LSM/PBL scheme in winter/spring because the improvement brought only one additional subdomain point into the benchmark, and there was no improvement in temperature or humidity. We therefore chose to stay with PX/ACM throughout the year to get the best summer simulation and to allow the us e of the Pleim-Xiu dry deposition algorithm in CMAQ throughout the year.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

62 

### 4.5 Summary of Results for the WR AP Region, and Performance in Other Subdomains

4.5.1 Summary of WRAP region results
A graphical representation of the differences between the initia l MM5 run (Run 0) (Morris et al., 2004a; Kemball-Cook et al., 2004), the interim run (Run 5) (Emery et al., 2004), and the final run (Run 2ae) is shown in Figures 4-10 through 4-12. Figure 4-10a shows the wind bias and error for all three runs. For the DesertSW subdomain, th ere is improvement in both bias and error as we progress from Run 0 through Run 2ae. For the other three subdomains, as we move from Run 0 to Run 5, there is a reduction in error and an increase in the low wind speed bias. All points but one (Run 0, PacNW) lie outside the benchmark. Figure 4-10b, which shows wind direction bias and gross error, indicates that Run 2ae also pr oduces improvements in the wind direction field relative to Runs 0 and 5.
For temperature (Figure 4-10c), all subdomains but DesertSW now lie within the benchmarks for Run 2ae, and that run is clearl y the best-performing run for both error and bias in all subdomains. The most noticeable change in going from Run 0 to Run 2ae is that DesertSW is no longer an outlier, but now lies close to the benchmark for error, and within it for bias.
For humidity (Figure 4-10d), all subdomains now lie within the benchmark. Again, DesertSW has gone from being an outlier, whose wet bias left it far wide of the benchmark, to falling within the benchmark. For North, going from Run 0 to R un 5 and from Run 5 to Run 2ae brings the subdomain inside the benchmark. For SW, Run 2ae is an improvement in error but not in bias.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

63 WRAP 36 km Run 0, Run 5, and Run 2ae Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark Run 0 Run 5 Run 2ae DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-10a. Wind speed soccer plot for comparison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs.

WRAP 36 km Run 0, Run 5, and Run 2ae Wind Direction Performance Comparison

0 10 20 30 40 50

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wind Direction Bias (m/s)Wind Direction Gross Error (m/s)

Benchmark Run 0 Run 5 Run 2ae DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-10b. Wind direction soccer plot for comparison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

64 WRAP 36 km Run 0, Run 5, and Run 2ae Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

4

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark Run 0 Run 5 Run 2ae DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-10c. Temperature soccer plot fo r comparison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs.

WRAP 36 km Run 0, Run 5, and Run 2ae Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark Run 0 Run 5 Run 2ae DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-10d. Humidity soccer plot for comparison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

65 Figures 4-11a and 4-11b are time series of pred icted (MM5) and observed temperature for Run 0 and Run 2ae. In Run 0, the amplitude of the pred icted diurnal temperature cycle is smaller than in the observations. This was attributed to the pr esence of excess water at the surface, indicated by the wet bias in DesertSW (Figure 4-10d) and the excessive precipitatio n seen in Run 0 in Figure 4-12. Since water has a higher specific heat than soil, the presence of excess water at the surface tends to damp the amplitude of daily temperature rise and fall. There is a marked improvement in Run 2ae; the amplitude of the diurnal cycle more nearly matches that of the observations, and the substantial cold bias of Run 0 has been replaced by a slight warm bias.

Observed/Predicted Temperature

285 290 295 300 305 310 315

7/ 1 7/ 2 7/ 3 7/ 4 7/ 5K ObsTemp PrdTemp

Figure 4-11a. July 1-5, 2002, MM5 predicted versus observed surface temperature time series for Run 0.

Observed/Predicted Temperature

285 290 295 300 305 310 315

7/ 1 7/ 2 7/ 3 7/ 4 7/ 5K ObsTemp PrdTemp

Figure 4-11b. July 1-5, 2002, MM5 predicted versus observed surface temperature time series for Run 2ae.

The precipitation field for Run 2ae is notable for its improvement over Runs 0 and 5 (Figure 4-12). The general overprediction of precipitation is less severe in Run 2ae than in the other two runs. The WRAP subdomains in particular see ra infall amounts from Run 2 ae that are closer toFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

66 observed; this is reflected in the humidity soccer plot (Figure 4-10d), which shows a reduction of the wet bias in the DesertSW seen in Runs 0 and 5. The observed precipitation maximum over Texas is simulated reasonably well in Run 2ae, but is underpredicted in Runs 0 and 5. These precipitation patterns suggest that the Betts-Miller scheme is si mulating the buildup and release of convective available potential energy (CAPE) mo re accurately than the Kain-Fritsch schemes, which seem to be discharging CAPE too soon a nd causing more widespread, less intense rainfall.

Figure 4-12. Precipitation comparison for July 2002 for original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) MM5 ru ns. Observed is shown at top right.

Table 4-4 summarizes the change in surface mo del performance evalua tion (MPE) statistics, moving from the original WRAP 2002 annual run (Run 0) through the interim version (Run 5) to the final version (Run 2ae) in the western subdom ains. There is significa nt improvement from Run 0 to Run 2ae. Of particular note are the in creases in the humidity indexes of agreement (IOAs) in SW and DesertSW. These two subdomains had a substantial deficiency in the originalFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

67 run, with a large wet bias. Note that the wet bias in the DesertSW subdomain has been more than halved in going from Run 0 to Run 2ae. The gros s humidity error is also greatly reduced in these two subdomains. PacNW and SW also show improve ment in humidity gross error, but show a slight degradation in bias perfor mance. Overall, the new Run 2ae model configuration resulted in a greatly improved simulation of humidity over the western U.S.

Table 4-4. Surface model performance evaluation statistics summary.

DesertSW Runs North Runs PacNW Runs SW Runs Statistic Bench mark 0 5 2ae 0 5 2ae 0 5 2ae 0 5 2ae Wind spd bias < ± 0.5 -1.47 -1.30 -1.22 -0.90 -0.85 -0.94 -0.34 -0.35 -0.59 -0.82 -0.77 -0.94 Wind spd RMSE <2.0 2.69 2.51 2.21 2.32 2.2 1.88 1.97 2.05 1.67 2.16 1.98 1.85 Wind spd IOA ≥ 0.6 0.55 0.57 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.83 0.67 0.65 0.77 0.68 0.70 0.77
Wind dir bias < ± 10 0.05 4.79 3.13 -3.22 6.23 2.19 -3.75 9.23 5.18 -11.85 -2.28 -2.23 Wind dir gross

error <30 50.5 50.3 32.8 42.2 43.4 28.3 45.9 46.6 34.2 49.3 47.3 34.2
Temp bias < ± 0.5 -2.07 -0.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.26 0.22 -0.56 -1.28 -0.10 -0.64 -0.39 -0.26 Temp gross error <2 3.42 2.19 2.07 2.32 2.09 1.77 2.14 2.8 1.86 2.37 2.72 2.02 Temp IOA ≥ 0.8 0.89 0.96 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.94 0.89 0.96 0.95 0.99 0.97 Humidity bias < ± 1 2.73 1.90 1.00 1.08 0.75 0.40 -0.23 -0.41 -0.30 -0.28 -0.24 -0.47 Humidity gross

error <2 3.14 2.40 1.91 1.80 1.60 1.30 0.92 0.96 0.88 1.72 1.41 1.42
Humidity IOA ≥ 0.6 0.65 0.75 0.80 0.73 0.79 0.83 0.70 0.69 0.72 0.62 0.73 0.77

There is also a reduction in the cold bias that wa s apparent in Run 0. In DesertSW, the cold bias that was originally –2.1 ° C drops to 0.2 ° C in Run 2ae. Reductions in the cold bias are also seen in the other subdomains. Likewise, temperature error is reduced in all subdomains, although not enough to bring it entirely with in the performance benchmark. Corresponding improvements are seen in the temperature IOA. Finally, the wind sp eed and wind direction bias and error generally exhibit improved model performance fr om initial Run 0 to final Run 2ae.



### 4.5.2 Tests in other subdomains

The tests described above focused on the western U.S., and the final configuration was selected on the basis of those results. Op timizing the MM5 configuration fo r the western U.S. may cause degradation of performance in other parts of the country, howe ver. To investigate this, we compared model performance in the non-WRAP subdomains for Run 0, Run 5, and Run 2ae. Example results are presented for several of the subdomains; all results are available in the task interim report ( http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/docs.shtml ).
Figure 4-13a displays the wind performance comparis on. Run 2ae is clearly the best of the three runs here, with a lower error than Run 0 or R un 5 for all subdomains. For MidAtl, CenrapN, andFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

68 NE, Run 2ae also has the smallest bias (note that the point for CenrapN coincides with the point for MidAtl for Run 2ae). For the CenrapS subdomain , Run 2ae has a smaller bias than Run 0, but a slightly larger bias than R un 5. For the OhioVal subdomain, the bias for Run 0 and Run 2ae is identical, and is slightly la rger than that of Run 5.
For temperature (Figure 4-13b), Run 2ae has lowe r or equal error for all subdomains, and a smaller bias for MidAtl and CenrapS. For the other subdomains, the bias in 2 ae is slightly larger than in Run 5, but still falls well within the be nchmark. All points show a warm bias in Run 2ae, which is a shift from Run 0, for which all subdomains have a cold bias. Run 5 shows the subdomains equally split between warm and cold biases.
For humidity (Figure 4-13c), Run 2ae shows impr ovement over Runs 0 and 5 for all subdomains, lowering or eliminating the wet bias seen in R uns 0 and 5. Changes in error are less pronounced, but where they occur, Run 2ae has a smaller error.

July 1-5, 2002 36 km: Run 0, Run 5, and Run 2ae Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark Run 0 Run 5 Run 2ae cenrapN

cenrapS

SE

midAtl

NE

OhioVal x o

Figure 4-13a. Wind soccer plot for comparison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs for subdomains outside WRAP.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

69 July 1-5, 2002 36 km: Run 0, Run 5, and Run 2ae Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark Run 0 Run 5 Run 2ae cenrapN

cenrapS

SE

midAtl

NE

OhioVal x o

Figure 4-13b

. Temperature soccer plot for comparison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs for subdomains outside WRAP.

July 1-5, 2002, 36 km: Run 0, Run 5, and Run 2ae Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark Run 0 Run 5 Run 2ae cenrapN

cenrapS

SE

midAtl

NE

OhioVal x o

Figure 4-13c. Humidity soccer plot for compar ison of original (Run 0), interim (Run 5), and final (Run 2ae) 2002 MM5 runs for subdomains outside WRAP.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

70 

### 4.6 Additional 12-km MM5 Sensitivity Tests
Having settled on a better MM5 conf iguration for the 36-km grid, we turned our attention to the WRAP 12-km grid. Reviewers of the MM5 sens itivity study report titled “MM5 Sensitivity Studies to Identify a More Optimal MM5 Conf iguration for Simulating Meteorology in the Western U.S.” (Kemball-Cook et al., 2004) raised concerns about the us e of the Betts-Miller scheme at 12-km resolution. We therefore ran seve ral tests to evaluate th e effect of different cumulus parameterizations on the 12-km domain using the final “R un 2ae” configuration. At the 12-km scale, the problem of cumulus parameteri zation is not well posed, as there is no clear spectral gap between the resolved grid-scale proc ess and the scale of the parameterized process (Arakawa and Chen, 1987). Molinari (1993) sugges ts that parameteriza tion of cumulus convection for grid resolutions of 2 to 20 km cannot be addressed with ei ther a fully explicit method or a hybrid parameterization approach. However, our ultimate goal of doing visibility modeling with CMAQ required us to be pragmatic and co nfigure MM5 in a physically reasonable way that produces the most accurate representation of the 2002 meteorology. Our plan for the 12-km-grid cumulus scheme, therefore, was to conduct severa l sensitivity tests to determine which cumulus scheme (or alternatively, no cumulus scheme at all) gives the best performance in terms of rainfall and surface temperature, humidity, and wi nd. The sensitivity tests were conducted for the modeling period July 1-5, 2002, and are summarizedin Table 4-5. The runs are identically configured except for the choice of cumulus parame terization, and, in the case of Run BM0a, the surface obs nudging and surface analysis nudging.

Table 4-5. Summary of cumulus sens itivity tests on the 12-km grid.

Run

ID 36-km Cumulus 12-km Cumulus Analysis FDDA 3-D Surface Obs FDDA

BM Betts-Miller Betts-Miller W/T/H W/T/H W BM0 Betts-Miller None W/T/H W/T/H W BM0a Betts-Miller None W/T/H W W KF Kain-Fritsch Kain-Fritsch W/T/H W/T/H W KFII Kain-Fritsch II Kain-Fritsch II W/T/H W/T/H W

Figure 4-14a shows the soccer plot for the wind performance on the 12-km grid for the above five MM5 runs. The BM and BM0 runs have the smallest biases in al l four subdomains, and slightly larger errors. BM0a represents a degr adation in performance relative to BM and BM0. For wind, then, the BM and BM0 runs give the best performance, and are too similar to one another to say which of the two is preferable. For temperature (Figure 4-14b), the KF run is a clear outlier. KFII and the BM simulations give approximately equivalent performance in terms of temperature. For humidity (Figure 4-14c), the BM and BM0 runs ar e a clear improvement over KF and KFII. Run BM0a offers a slight improvement over BM and BM0 for the DesertSW and North subdomains.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

71 WRAP 12 km July Wind Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark BM BM0 KF KFII BM0a Cumulus SensitivityTest

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-14a. Wind soccer plot for cumulus sensit ivity test on 12-km grid.

WRAP 12 km July Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark BM BM0 KF KFII BM0a Cumulus Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-14b. Temperature soccer plot for cumulus sensitivity test on 12-km grid.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

72 WRAP 12 km Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark BM BM0 KF KFII BM0a

Cumulus Sensitivity Test

DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-14c. Humidity soccer plot for cumulus se nsitivity test on 12-km grid.

On balance, the BM and BM0 runs produced the best performance out of all the simulations tested on the12-km grid, with BM0a producing sl ightly degraded but comparable performance relative to BM and BM0. Based on peer review er comments on the document “MM5 Sensitivity Studies to Identify a More Optimal MM5 Conf iguration for Simulating Meteorology in the Western U.S.,” we chose BM0a. The reason for this choice is the concern raised by the reviewers regarding surface analysis nudging of temperatur e and humidity. While this type of nudging can improve the surface statistics (making the run lo ok better on the soccer plot), it can cause a degradation in the aloft simulation by a dversely affecting the modeled stability.
The BM0a configuration was then used for the annual 2002 MM5 simulation to support WRAP’s regional haze modeling. This final MM5 si mulation was conducted using the RPO Unified domain 36-km grid combined with the WRAP ne sted 12-km grid (this type of nested-grid simulation is referred to from here forward as a “36/12-km” simulati on). The WRAP modeling protocol (ENVIRON and UCR, 200 4) was updated to reflect the new model configuration.



### 4.7 Evaluation of the Final WRAP 2002 MM5 36/12-km Annual Run
After rerunning the MM5 36/12-km 2002 annual si mulation, we compared the 36-km run’s performance with that of the in itial WRAP_0 run (referred to as Run 0 above) as well as with two additional 36-km continental-scale annua l runs performed by the CENRAP and VISTASFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

73 RPOs. We evaluated the performa nce of each model run in replic ating the evolution of observed winds, temperature, humidity, precipitation, a nd boundary layer morphology to the extent that resources and data availability allowed. This serv ed as an assessment of the reliability of the new WRAP run’s 36-km meteorological fields in adequately charac terizing the state of the atmosphere and for serving as (1) boundary conditions for the 12-km regional-scale WRAP domain MM5 run and (2) the meteorologica l driver for the CMAQ 36-km continental-scale run. Finally, we evaluated the final 12-km WRAP run and asse ssed its suitability for providing meteorological conditions for the proposed 12-km CMAQ applicati on. This work is discussed in the WRAP MM5 final report available at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/ aqm/308/mm5_reports04.shtml

.


### 4.7.1 METSTAT Surface Evaluation
The starting point for the analysis of the ne w 2002 36-km MM5 runs was an assessment of the surface statistics for wind, temperature, and humidity using METSTAT. Soccer plots were generated and evaluated for each month of 2002. For brevity, we include only January (Figures 4-15 through 4-17) and July (Figures 4-18 throu gh 4-20) in this report. MM5's performance was qualitatively different during su mmer and winter, with the spri ng and fall seasons serving as transitional periods between wi nter and summer. January and July were found to be representative of MM5’s performance during the winter and summer seasons. The model’s spring statistical performance was similar to that of fall. The main stre ngths and weaknesses of the 2002 MM5 runs are captured in the January and July plots. For each of those months, we show a soccer plot for the subdomains in the western U.S. (the WRAP region) and a second soccer plot for the central and eastern U.S. Th is is done to reduce the amount of data shown on one plot to a manageable level, and also becau se MM5’s performance was qualitatively different between the western U.S. and the rest of the count ry. A detailed analysis is given in the final report (link listed above). Here, we li st the major result s of the analysis.
Summary of the Annual Cycle in MM5 Surface Performance:

• For temperature and humidity, the best-performing run overall was VISTAS; it had no outliers and had no serious performance problem s at any particular time or subdomain.

• For wind, the best-performing run was th e new WRAP run. There was not much difference in wind performance among th e other three runs (WRAP_0, CENRAP, VISTAS).

• For wind, there is not much variation in pe rformance in the east or the west over the course of the annual cycle, al though the wind direction error is smaller in winter than in summer. The wind direction RMSE does not vary significantly over the course of the year for any of the four runs.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

74 Figure 4-15. 36-km surface wind performance soccer plot for January for western U.S. (top) and central and eastern U.S. (bottom) CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP January Wind Performance Comparison Over the Western U.S.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Wind Speed RMSE (m/s)Wind Direction Error (m/s)

Benchmark VISTAS OldWRAP CENRAP WRAP DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP January Wind Performance Comparison Over the Central and Eastern U.S.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Wind Speed RMSE (m/s)Wind Direction Error (m/s)

Benchmark VISTAS OldWRAP CENRAP WRAP CENRAP N

CENRAP S

Ohio Val

SE

NE

MidAtlFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

75 CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP January Temperature Performance Comparison Over Western U.S.

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Temperature Bias (K)Temperature Error (K)

Benchmark VISTAS CENRAP WRAP OldWRAP DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP January Temperature Performance Comparison over Central and Eastern U.S.

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Temperature Bias (K)Temperature Error (K)

Benchmark VISTAS OldWRAP CENRAP WRAP CENRAP N

Figure 4-16. 36-km surface temperature perfor mance soccer plot for January for western U.S. (top) and central and eastern U.S. (bottom).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

76 Figure 4-17. 36-km surface humidity performan ce soccer plot for January for western U.S. (top) and central and eastern U.S. (bottom). CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAPJanuary Humidity Performance Comparison Over the Western U.S.

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark VISTAS WRAP CENRAP OldWRAP DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAPJanuar y Humidit y Performance Comparison Over the Central and Eastern U.S.

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark VISTAS OldWRAP CENRAP WRAP CENRAP N

CENRAP S

Ohio Val

SE

NE

MidAtlFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

77

Figure 4-18. 36-km surface wind performance so ccer plot for July for western U.S. (top) and central and eastern U.S. (bottom). CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP Jul y Wind Performance Comparison Over the Western U.S.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Wind Speed RMSE (m/s)Wind Dierction Error (m/s)

Benchmark VISTAS OldWRAP CENRAP WRAP DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP July Wind Performance Comparison Over the Central and Eastern U.S.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Wind Speed RMSE (m/s)Wind Dierction Error (m/s)

Benchmark VISTAS OldWRAP CENRAP WRAP CENRAP N

CENRAP S

Ohio Val

SE

NE

MidAtlFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

78 Figure 4-19. 36-km surface temperature performa nce soccer plot for July for western U.S. (top) and central and eastern U.S. (bottom). CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP July Temperature Performance Comparison Over the Western U.S.

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark VISTAS WRAP CENRAP OldWRAP DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP July Temperature Performance Comparison Over the Central and Eastern U.S.

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark VISTAS WRAP CENRAP OldWRAP CENRAP N

CENRAP S

Ohio Val

SE

NE

MidAtlFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

79

Figure 4-20. 36-km humidity performance soccer plot for July for western U.S. (top) and central and eastern U.S. (bottom). CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP July Humidity Performance Comparison Over the Western U.S.

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark VISTAS WRAP CENRAP OldWRAP DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

CENRAP / VISTAS / WRAP July Humidity Performance Comparison Over the Central and Eastern U.S.

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark VISTAS OldWRAP CENRAP WRAP CENRAP N

CENRAP S

Ohio Val

SE

NE

MidAtlFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

80 Summary of the Annual Cycle in MM 5 Surface Performance (continued):

• For temperature in the west, all runs ex cept the nudged WRAP_0 run lie outside the benchmark (except for the SW and PacificNW subdomains, which lie barely within the benchmark in December). Performance is mu ch better in the east than in the west.

• The new WRAP run had a less accurate su rface temperature simulation than WRAP_0, which used analysis nudging of surface temperature.

• For temperature in the east, all or nearly a ll of the subdomains lie within the benchmark during most months.

• Humidity performance was generally within th e benchmarks for all regions for all runs except the WRAP_0 run.

• For humidity, in the west, performance is be st in winter and de teriorates as summer approaches. The culprit is the humidity erro r, not the bias, exce pt for the WRAP_0 run outliers in July in the North and DesertSW subdomains.

• Except for SW, all western subdomains have a wet bias in July. This is likely related to excess simulated precipitation.

• For eastern subdomains, humid ity performance is comparable to western subdomains, as was true for wind.

• The new WRAP run showed significant improve ment in July humidity performance in the west relative to the WRAP_0 run, but does worse in the east. We can attribute both of these changes in performance to reducti on in rainfall and therefore surface moisture that we get in going from the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme to the Betts-Miller scheme



### 4.7.2 Precipitation Evaluation
Next, we evaluated the precipitation fields in the VISTAS, CENRAP, WRAP_0, and new WRAP 2002 36-km MM5 runs. We examined the a nnual cycle in the monthl y rainfall totals in the MM5 runs and compare them to observed m onthly rainfall totals (Figures 4-21 and 4-22).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

81 Figure 4-21. January observed and modeled precipitation.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

82 Figure 4-22. July observed and modeled precipitation.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

83 In summary, differences among the four 36-km MM5 runs in terms of pr ecipitation performance were relatively small. All four runs were ab le to reproduce many of th e major stratiform (i.e., resolved at grid-scale) precipi tation features, and all four ha d difficulty with convective precipitation. This is to be expected, give n that convection is a subgrid-scale phenomenon whose parameterization is poorly understood. Th e biggest difference among the four simulations came in July; in the western U.S., the overestimation of precipitation was smallest in the new WRAP run, but the new WRAP r un also overpredicted convective rainfall in the southeastern United States. These changes are cl early related to the use of a different type of cumulus scheme in the new WRAP run than in the other three runs. For the purposes of WRAP visibility modeling, the new WRAP run is clearly an improvement over th e WRAP_0 run, and has more accurate precipitation fields in the we stern U.S. in both summer and winter.



### 4.7.3 Upper-Air Evaluation
To assess whether MM5 is simulating the vertical structure of the atmosphere with reasonable accuracy in the four 36-km runs, we compared model temperature and dew point soundings with those from a limited number of radiosonde stations . We focused on the months of January and July, as these two months were at the extr emes of good and poor model performance at the surface.
For the months of January and July, a radiosonde station was selected from each subdomain, and the 00Z and 12Z observed and modeled soundings from each day were compared for the CENRAP, VISTAS, WRAP_0, and WRAP runs. 12Z and 00Z soundings were analyzed in order to examine differences between stable (nocturn al) and unstable (daytime) conditions (00Z and 12Z are 4pm PST/7pm EST and 4am PST/7am PST, respectively). In th e following discussion, we summarize the general features of the upper-a ir soundings found in the extended analysis of January and July. By looking at two months for a limited number of stations, we had a manageable amount of sounding data to analyze, but we caution that it would be unwise to place too much confidence in generalizin g these results from two months of data from 11 stations to the entire MM5 domain and the entire year. We summarize the results of the upper-air analysis below:

• In both January and July, the CENRAP and VI STAS runs were better able to simulate PBL temperature inversions than were th e two WRAP runs. Figure 4-23 shows the 12Z sounding for Spokane, WA (OTX) for July 2, 2002. The CENRAP and VISTAS runs both underestimate the strength of the inve rsion, but the problem is worse in the WRAP_0 and new WRAP runs.

• CENRAP and VISTAS dew point temperature profiles were generally closer than that of WRAP_0 to the observed profile, and these two runs were be tter able to handle extreme excursions in temperature and dew point profiles in the lower troposphere.

• The new WRAP run tended to have a more accurate dew point profile than the WRAP_0 run at 12Z, and a temperature profile that wa s less accurate near the surface, which is reasonable given the lack of surface temperat ure analysis nudging the new WRAP run.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

84 • Because of the analysis nudging of surface temperature, the WRAP_0 surface temperature was generally closer than CENRAP or VISTAS to the observed surface temperature, but profiles above surface were less ac curate in WRAP_0 than in CENRAP or VISTAS.

• For July soundings with a deep, convec ting boundary layer, CENRAP and VISTAS frequently better reproduced the observed temp erature inversion at the top of the PBL, while the WRAP_0 run showed a smoother de crease of temperature with increasing altitude. This problem is somewhat ame liorated in the new WRAP run. Figure 4-24 shows the observed and simulated soundings for 00Z on July 16 at Midland, TX. The observed sounding shows a deep, dry adiabatic convecting layer with an inversion at 700 mb. Both the CENRAP and VISTAS runs simulate an inversion just above 700 mb, although it is weaker than the observed inve rsion. The WRAP_0 temperature sounding shows temperature decreasing smoothly with in creasing altitude, with no inversion. The new WRAP run still does not manage to pr oduce an inversion, but does a better job of approximating the temperature profile imme diately above the obs erved inversion.

• The new WRAP run has a more accurate surf ace pressure than any of the other three runs. This improvement in the surface pressure in the new WRAP run seems to be a general feature of this run, and was noted in both summer and wi nter soundings. It is unclear what caused this improvement.

• During winter, there was not much differen ce between the new and old WRAP runs. What differences there were occurred near the surface. The WRAP_0 run tended to have a more accurate temperature profile near the surface, due to its surface analysis nudging. Because cumulus convection is not as active during the winter, the surface temperature differences predominated in wi nter. There was generally litt le change in the dew point profile in winter.

• In summer, there were larger differences be tween the new and old WRAP runs stemming from the difference in parameterization of cumulus convection. Although there was a deterioration in the temperature profile near the surface in the new WRAP run (due to turning off surface temperature nudging), the dew point profile was often more accurate in the new WRAP run

• Overall, the upper-air profiles in the CENRAP and VISTAS runs were very similar to one another, and both of these runs had so me marked differences with the two WRAP runs (i.e., success at simulating low-level noctur nal inversions or the PBL top inversion). It is possible that the diffe rences between the two WRAP runs and the other two runs may be attributed to the different explicit moisture schemes.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

85 Figure 4-23. July 2, 2002, 12Z Sounding for Spokane, WA. Upper left-hand panel: CENRAP; upp er right-hand panel: VISTAS; lower left-hand panel: WRAP_0; lower right-hand panel: new WRAP.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

86 Figure 4-24. July 16, 2002, 00Z So unding for Midland, TX. Upper left-hand panel: CENRAP; upp er right-hand panel: VISTAS; lower left-hand panel: WRAP_0; lower right-hand panel: new WRAP.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

87 

### 4.7.4 12-km METSTAT Surface Performance Evaluation
Next, we assessed the performance of the 2002 12-km MM5 run. The evaluation of the MM5 surface meteorological variables using METSTAT is presented first, followed by a comparison of the CPC observed and MM5 pred icted precipitation patterns.
As in the analysis of the 36-km run, soccer plot s were generated and evaluated for each month of the year 2002 for the 12-km grid. On these soccer plots, we also include for reference the data from the 36-km run, so that we can see the eff ects on performance of running at higher resolution and with different cumulus parameterization (none, in the case of the 12-km run). As in the 36-km run, MM5’s performance was qualitatively different during summer and winter, with the spring and fall seasons serving as transitional periods between winter and summer. January and July were found to be representative of MM5 ’s performance during the winter and summer seasons. For brevity, we include only January an d July in this report. The main strengths and weaknesses of the 2002 12-km MM5 run are captured in the January plots (Figures 4-25 through 4-27) and July plots (Figures 4- 28 through 4-30). For both months, we show a soccer plot for the subdomains in the western U.S. (the 12-km WR AP region). The subdomain definitions are the same as those used in the 36-km run.

WRAP 12/36 km January Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark WRAP 12 km WRAP 36 km DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-25. 12/36-km surface temperature pe rformance soccer plot for January for the WRAP region.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

88 WRAP 12/36 km January Wind Performance Comparison

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Wind Speed RMSE (m/s)Wind Direction Error (m/s)

Benchmark WRAP 12 km WRAP 36 km DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-26. 12/36-km surface wind perfor mance soccer plot for January for the WRAP region.

WRAP 12/36 km January Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark WRAP 12 km WRAP 36 km DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-27. 12/36-km surface humidity pe rformance soccer plot for January for the WRAP region.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

89 WRAP 12/36 km July Temperature Performance Comparison

0 0.5

1 1.5 2 2.5

3 3.5

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark WRAP 12 km WRAP 36 km DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-28. 12/36-km surface temperature pe rformance soccer plot for July for the WRAP region.

WRAP 12/36 km July Wind Performance Comparison

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Wind Speed RMSE (m/s)Wind Direction Error (m/s)

Benchmark WRAP 12 km WRAP 36 km DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-29. 12/36-km surface wind performance soccer plot for July for the WRAP region.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

90 WRAP 12/36 km July Humidity Performance Comparison

0 1 2 3

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark WRAP12 km WRAP 36 km DesertSW

PacNW

SW

North

Figure 4-30. 12/36-km surface humidity pe rformance soccer plot for July for the WRAP region.

We summarize the results of the 12-km analysis below:

• January: For temperature (Figure 4-25), al l subdomains fall outside the benchmark for both the 36-km and 12-km runs. For the No rth, SW, and DesertSW subdomains, the 12- km run offers a small improvement in performance, but not enough to move the subdomains significantly closer to the benchmark.

• January: For all four subdomains, the 12-km wind and humidity performance (Figures 4-26 and 4-27) falls within the benchmark a nd is a slight improvement over the 36-km performance.

• July: The soccer plot for temperature (Figure 4-28) shows that the bias for the PacificNW, North, and DesertSW subdomain s is now within the benchmark. Although the temperature error is not w ithin the benchmark for these three subdomains, it has been reduced relative to the error in January. This is a significant improvement in performance relative to the WRAP_0 36-km a nd 12-km runs, and is a result of the new WRAP run configuration’s optimization fo r improvement of the July humidity and temperature performance.

• July: Very small improvements are seen in the July 2002 wind speed and wind direction model performance using the 12-km over the 36-km grid (Figure 4-29).

• July: For humidity (Figure 4-30) , all subdomains fall within th e benchmark. This is in marked contrast to the WRAP_0 run (not s hown), where a strong wet biases occurred inFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

91 the North and DesertSW subdomains due to excessive convectiv e rainfall in those regions.
The METSTAT surface analysis shows that the 12-km run is within or near performance benchmarks for wind and humidity over the annual cycl e of 2002, but the temperature results fall outside the bias benchmark. It is possible that this is due to te rrain resolution effects. The new 12-km WRAP is a significant improvement in term s of its surface performa nce relative to the WRAP_0 12 km run.



### 4.7.5 12-km Precipitation Performance Evaluation

In this section, we evaluate the precipitation perf ormance of the 2002 12-km MM5 run. The original WRAP_0 run had a strong positive precipitation bias over the WRAP region on both the 36-km and 12-km grids. In tandem with the 36-km sensitivity tests described in Kemball-Cook et al. (2004b), a second series of sensitivity test s was performed on the 12-km grid to identify a more optimal configuration for that domain. Th e best choice for cumulus scheme turned out to be no cumulus parameterization, as discussed in Section 2. Figures 4-31a through 4-31j show a comparison of the observed CPC precipitation an d the MM5-predicted precipitation over the course of the new WRAP 2002 12-km simulation.
In January (Figures 4-31a and 4-31b), the agr eement between the overall predicted and observed pattern is reasonably good. MM5 picks up the precipitation maxi ma over the mountain ranges in the Pacific Northwest, although rainfall amounts are too high ove r both ranges. There is excessive precipitation in the Ce nrapN and North regions, and MM5 underpredicts the rainfall over the central California coast. In March (Figure 4-31c and 4-31d), the model again overpredicts the rainfall over the mountain ra nges of the Pacific Northwest. Aside from this, however, MM5 shows impressive skill.

As we move from winter to summer and convective rainfall becomes more important, MM5’s forecast skill deteriorates. Figure 4-31e and Fi gure 4-31f show the observed and modeled precipitation for July. Although MM5 does a reasonab le job with the SW and PacNW subdomains, where little or no rain falls, there is a general overp rediction of rainfall. This is consistent with the wet bias seen in the surface humidity soccer plot for July (Figure 4-30) for all subdomains except SW. In general, the model does a good job with the overall pr ecipitation pattern, but individual maxima are overpredicted. The m odel is running with no convective parameterization. This means that in or der for convection to occur, the entire 12-km grid column must saturate and be unstable. In the real world, convective updrafts tend to be smaller than 12 km across. This may mean that it is relatively difficult for modeled convection to be initiated, and it becomes unrealistically intense when it does occu r because an unphysical amount of instability has been allowed to build up in the convecting grid cell.
As fall arrives, and the partitioning of rainfall moves toward an increase in the stratiform component, MM5’s performance improves. Figures 4- 31g and 4-31h show th e observed and modeled precipitation for October. In October, the model underestimates precipitation in the banded features over the CenrapS regi on, but otherwise agrees reas onably well with observations.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

92 MM5’s December performance (Figures 4-31i and 4-31j) is similar to that of January. The model simulates the overall pattern of precipitation over the Pacific Northwest, but overestimates the intensity of the maxima. As in January, precipitation over the North and CenrapN subdomains is overestimated. Otherwise, the model does a good job of simulating the December precipitation field.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

93

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

(e) (f)
Figure 4-31. Annual cycle in 12-km MM5 pr ecipitation. (a) January CPC observed precipitation. (b) January MM5 predicted to tal precipitation. (c) March CPC observed precipitation. (d) March MM5 predicted tota l precipitation. (e) July CPC observed precipitation. (f) July MM5 p redicted total precipitation. ( figure continued on next page )Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

94

(g) (h)

(i) (j)
Figure 4-31 (cont’d.). Annual cycle in 12- km MM5 precipitation. (g) October CPC observed precipitation. (h) October MM5 predicted total p recipitation. (i) December CPC observed precipitation. (j) December MM5 predicted total precipitation.

In summary, MM5 predicts the precipitation on the 12-km grid with reasonable skill over most of the annual cycle. The perfor mance is better in winter than in summer. Throughout the year, the model tends to overpredict precipitation maxima, but does a good job of simulating the overall precipitation pattern. The new WRAP run exhibits bette r skill than the WRAP_0 run, particularly in July. The modeled rainfall is sti ll excessive in July, but the severity of the overprediction and the corresponding biases in July su rface temperature and humidity have lessened.



### 4.8 Summary

In this task, we conducted a seri es of sensitivity tests and arri ved at a revised 36-km MM5 configuration that resulted in signi ficant improvements in the precipi tation, temperature, humidity, and wind fields, all of which are likely to he lp produce more accurate CMAQ results. At bothFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

95 12-km and 36-km resolutions, the new WRAP 20 02 MM5 simulation produced results that are generally within the range of mete orological model results that have been used in the past for air quality applications. The new 36-km and 12-km runs represent a significant improvement inperformance over the original WRAP_0 run. They show an improvement in the modeled precipitation fields, particularly in the summer in the Southwest. With a reduction in the overprediction of summer convective rainfall in both the 36- and 12-km runs, wet biases in the surface humidity and cold biases in the surface temp erature have been reduced in the North and DesertSW subdomains in the summer months. Although the new WRAP run was optimized for summer performance over the WRAP region, the wint er performance in the west did not deteriorate significantly. There was a loss of accuracy, pa rticularly in temperature and humidity in the east, but this region is not the focus of WRAP . To summarize, the new WRAP 36/12-km run:

• Saw its surface wind performance improve signif icantly throughout the year relative to the WRAP_0 run due to observational nudging of surface winds.

• Showed significant improvement in summer rainfall and surface humidity performance relative to the WRAP_0 run in the WRAP region.

• Did worse than the original WRAP run for hu midity performance in the east (at 36-km resolution). We can attribute both of these changes in perf ormance to a reduction in the areal coverage in rainfall and an increas e in convective rainfall in active cells (and therefore surface moisture) that occur when going from the KF scheme to the BettsMiller scheme.

• Showed improved temperature performance in summer in the west, and slightly worse performance in winter rela tive to the WRAP_0 run.

• Showed a small overall degrada tion in performance in the east. Some of this was the result of eliminating the surface analysis nudgi ng of temperature and moisture that was done in WRAP_0.
Our comparison of the two 36-km WRAP runs (WRAP_0 and new WRAP) to the CENRAP and VISTAS 36-km continental-scale annual runs showed:

• Overall, VISTAS performed best in the si mulation of surface temperature and humidity. It had no outliers and no serious performan ce problems at any particular time or subdomain. It is unclear whethe r this is due to the explicit moisture physics or convection schemes or to the interaction between them , or to effects of differences in FDDA.

• The new WRAP run performed best for surface winds throughout the year.

• For precipitation, the four runs were similar in terms of performan ce if the whole 36-km domain and the entire year were considered . Over the WRAP region, however, the new WRAP run performed best, with the smallest overprediction of c onvective rain of all runs. The overprediction of convective prec ipitation was most severe in the WRAP_0

run.

• For upper-air structure, CENRAP and VISTAS performed best and were similar to one another. We attribute this to the use of the Reisner 2 scheme, as the simulation of, forFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

96 example, the PBL inversion was relatively insensitive to the change of convection scheme in the WRAP runs.

• In all four 36-km runs, MM5 performe d better in winter than in summer.

• Although WRAP_0 had the best surface statistics for temperature, its upper-air performance was worst of all four runs, which suggests that analysis nudging of surface temperature and humidity is counterproductive. The new WRAP run, which did not have analysis nudging of surface temperature and humid ity, had larger errors in its temperature structure in the lowest levels of the atmosphe re, but had a more realistic dew point profile and a smaller surface pressure bias than any of the four runs.
Based on the upper-air soundings, the most serious problem is the difficulty MM5 has in establishing the observed PBL structure. MM5 has trouble getting the PBL depth right, particularly in the stable nocturnal case. Also , the model’s difficulty in simulating the observed fine structure of the dew point temperature profil e and the overall level of saturation in the lower troposphere is cause for concern. It is impor tant that the model produce cloud decks at the correct height. Errors in humidity and cloud prediction will have a negative impact on the accuracy of downwelling solar radi ation, cause errors in the te mperature profile and the surface fluxes, affecting chemistry, and making it diffi cult for the PM model to perform properly.
We conclude, based on the results of this st udy, that the 36-km and 12-km WRAP MM5 runs exhibit reasonably good performanc e and are certainly w ithin the bounds of other meteorological databases used for prior air quality modeling efforts. It is theref ore reasonable to proceed with their use as inputs for future CMAQ visibili ty modeling. Table 4-6 shows the final MM5 configuration that produced the results that will be used as input for the regional particulate matter and visibility modeling.

Table 4-6. Final MM5 configuration for 2002 annual run for 36-km and 12-km grids.

Run ID LSM PBL Cumulus Microphysics Analysis FDDA 3-D Surface Obs FDDA

36-km Grid Pleim-Xiu ACM Betts-Miller Reisner 2 W/T/H W W 12-km Grid Pleim-Xiu ACM None Reisner 2 W/T/H W W



### 4.9 Status of Task 2 Deliverables
Table 4-7 gives the status of each Task 2 deliv erable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliverables agreed upon after the work plan was prepared.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

97 Table 4-7. Status of th e Task 2 deliverables.

Deliverable Status 2002 MM5 modeling protocol Revised December 10, 2004; see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports/mm5/WRAP_modeling_protocol_ revsd.pdf 2002 preliminary MM5 modeling report Completed March 2004; see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/ 308/reports/2002_MM5_2003WRAP.pdf 2002 MM5 modeling sensitivity report Revised December 10, 2004; see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports/mm5/MM5SensitivityRevRep_De c_10_2004.pdf Response to peer-review comments on WRAP 2002 MM5 modeling Completed December 17, 2004; see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/re ports/mm5/Response_to_Comments.pdf

2002 MM5 36/12-km distribution disks Generated January 2005

2002 MM5 36/12-km CMAQ MCIP input files Generated January 2005

2002 MM5 36/12-km CAMx input files Generated January 2005

2002 MM5 36/12-km final evaluation report Completed February 28, 2005; see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/mm5_reports04.shtmlFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

98 

## 5. Task 3: 2002 Base Year Emissions Modeling, Processing, and Analysis

5.1 Introduction
From March 1, 2004, through February 28, 2005 (referr ed to in this report as project year 2004), the RMC emissions modeling efforts focuse d on (1) improving the emissions modeling infrastructure at the RMC; (2) developing a preliminary annual 2002 base case emissions simulation over the RPO Unified Continental 36 -km Modeling Grid domain; (3) developing and evaluating emissions on the WRAP nested 12- km-resolution modeling do main; and (4) simulating various emissions pertur bations for CMAQ sensitivity simulations. The RMC performed most of this emissions modeling with SM OKE version 2.0 (CEP, 2003). UCR and ENVIRON continued work begun in 2003 on the development of stand-alone emissions models for fugitive windblown dust (Mansell et al., 2004a) and agricultura l ammonia emissions (Mansell, 2004a), respectively, providing emissions from these models to be merged with the emissions generated by SMOKE. UNC-CEP and UCR conducted all of the SMOKE modeling and quality assurance (QA), emissions modeling quality control (QC), and documentation.
During the first quarter of 2004, we finished im plementing a comprehensive QA/QC protocol for emissions modeling to ensure that all RMC emis sions modeling is well-documented, reproducible, and free of avoidable errors, such as doubl e-counted or mistakenly dropped emissions data (Adelman, 2004). In January 2004, we complete d a preliminary 36-km emissions simulation with SMOKE for January and July 2002 as a test of the emissions mode ling protocol and new versions of the SMOKE scripts; this is referred to as prel iminary 2002 simulation case A, or Pre02a_36 (Adelman and Omary, 2004). This simu lation served as a prototype for emissions simulation Pre02b_36 (Holland and Adelman, 2 004), the first annual CMAQ-ready emissions simulation for 2002 conducted by the RMC. With the delivery of 2002 WR AP fire emissions inventories by Air Sciences Inc. for prescribed fires and wildfires in April 2004, we created emissions simulation Pre02c_36 (Adelman and Holla nd, 2004) by merging these fire data with the typical-year agri cultural fire emissions (version July 31, 2002) and emissions simulation Pre02b_36. In the fall of 2004, act ual 2002 inventories for the WRAP, VISTAS, and Central Regional Air Planning Association (CENRAP) RPOs became available, along with revised prescribed and wildfire inventories for the WRAP states, a 2000 Canadian inventory, and results from the windblown dust and agricultural NH 3 emissions models mentioned above. The RMC combined these major data updates with other minor modifications to create the final preliminary 36-km 2002 simulation, Pre02d_36. After the annual 2002 meteorology data for the WRAP 12- km modeling domain became available in January 2005, we were able to complete the annual preliminary 12-km 2002 simulation, Pre02d_12, in Fe bruary as the final simulation of project year 2004. Technical details, problems encount ered and their resolutions, QA products, and qualitative summaries for emissions simula tions Pre02a_36, Pre02b_36, and Pre02c_36 are available in the respective technical reports ju st cited. The same kinds of information for emissions simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12 ar e available later in this section.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

99 Along with developing the above preliminary ve rsions of the 2002 annual base case emissions simulation, we also created test emissions on the WRAP nested 12-km modeling domain (Pre02c_12), preliminary plume-in-gri d (PinG) emissions for the top NO x and SO 2 sources in the WRAP region (Pre02c_PinG), two one-month emissi on control scenarios for the nonroad diesel retrofit program (Pre02c_36s01), and two sensitivity simulations for testing the effects of natural versus anthropogenic fire emissions (Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36). In addition, we integrated numerous data updates into the WRAP mode ling from March 2004 through February 2005. Figure 5-1 is a timeline of all of the emissions simulations completed during project year 2004.

Simulation ID11/0312/031/042/043/044/045/046/047/048/049/0410/0411/0412/041/052/05

Pre02a_36 Pre02b_36 Pre02c_36 Pre02c_12 Pre02c_Ping Pre02c_36s01 Pre02e_36 Pre02f_36 Pre02d_36 Pre02d_12

Figure 5-1. Project year 2004 emis sions processing schedule.

Table 5-1 lists the major emissions processi ng tasks we completed from March 2004 through February 2005 and indicates how they fit into the WRAP RMC 2004 work plan.

Table 5-1. Major emissions modeling ta sks completed in project year 2004.

Simulation ID Work Plan Task # Completion Date Description
Pre02a_36 3-1 01/2004 Winter/su mmer 2002 test 36-km simulation Pre02b_36 3-2 05/2004 Preliminar y annual 2002 36-km simulation Pre02c_36 3-3 06/2004 Enhancement to si mulation Pre02b_36 with the addition of WRAP prescribed, agricultural, and wildfires Pre02c_12 3-4 07/2004* Simulation to generate CMAQ emissions for the WRAP 12-km nested domain*Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

100

Simulation ID Work Plan Task # Completion Date Description
Pre02c_PinG 3-5 07/2004 Simulation to generate plume-in-grid 36-km emissions for CMAQ; a one-month (January 2002) test dataset Pre02c_36s01 3-3 9/2004 Nonr oad mobile-source diesel retrofit sensitivity 36-km simulation Pre02e_36 3-3 9/2004 Enhancement to si mulation Pre02b_36 with the addition of natural fire events only Pre02f_36 3-3 9/2004 Enhancement to si mulation Pre02b_36 with the addition of agricultural fires and revised 2002 prescribed and wildfires Pre02d_36 3-3 1/2005 Final prelimin ary annual 2002 36-km simulation Pre02d_12 3-4 2/2005 Preliminar y annual 2002 12-km simulation *Meteorology data were not yet available at the time of the simulation; only non-meteorology-dependent emissions were completed.

The rest of Section 5 summarizes the results of each emissions case and how the data progressed from one simulation to the next. We first disc uss all of the emissions inventories used in developing the preliminary 2002 modeling covered in this report (Section 5.2). Section 5.3 highlights the sources of and major updates to th e SMOKE ancillary data (spatial surrogates, temporal profiles, etc.) used in these emissions simulations. Section 5.4 gi ves details on all of the emissions modeling simulations list ed in Table 5-1. Section 5.5 describes the emissions quality control system that the RMC used to document a nd track the different mo deling tasks. Next, we provide a summary of the 2004 deliverables from the RMC emissions modeling team, including the model-ready emissions files and QA products a ssociated with each deliv erable (Section 5.6). The progress of the WRAP 2002 annual base case emissions modeling is discussed in Section 5.7, which also includes summaries of the di fferences and qualitative comparisons among the various preliminary 2002 emissions cases. Section 5. 8 presents technical de tails of the emissions sensitivities built from the pr eliminary base case 2002 simulations. A concise summary of the problems encountered in the 2002 emissions simula tions and their correctio ns is then provided (Section 5.9), followed by a list of the outstanding issues to be addresse d during the next round of modeling in 2005 (Section 5.10). Section 5.11 de scribes emissions data technology transfer activities that the RMC performed during this reporting period. We finish Section 5 with a discussion of the directions that we anticipate the RMC emissions modeling team will take through 2005 and into 2006 (Section 5.12).



### 5.2 WRAP 2002 Emissions Inventories

From December 2003 to December 2004, we built the 2002 WRAP emissions inventory database for the preliminary 2002 modeling with data fr om various inventory development contractors that are used by the WRAP Air Quality Modeling Forum and by other RPOs, the U.S. EPA, and Environment Canada. This section presents deta ils about the inventories received, including the sources and formats of the files, how we a pplied them, and any problems we addressed orFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

101 modifications we made to integrate them into the preliminary 2002 modeling. While some of the information presented in this section is redundant of similar text in the final reports for simulations Pre02a_36, Pre02b_36, and Pre02c_36, we ha ve included it because the purpose of this section is to present a unified summary of all of the emissions inventories we modeled from March 2004 through February 2005. Simulation Pre02c_36 was the la st simulation we completed that used “placeholder” U.S. 2002 inventories; all of the non-WRAP U.S. inventories in simulation Pre02c_36 were either U.S. 1999 Nati onal Emissions Inventory (NEI99) or NEI96 inventories that the RMC grew to 2002 using U.S. EPA projection fa ctors. For additional details about all of the emissions inventories used th rough simulation Pre02c_36, please refer to the final reports for the specific simulation. For simulation Pre02d_36, we transitioned to using actual 2002 inventories either deve loped explicitly for the RPOs or provided by the U.S. EPA as the preliminary NEI2002. The final inventory updates in project y ear 2004 occurred for simulation Pre02d_36. All subsequent simulati ons were either fire sensitivities based on simulation Pre02b_36 (Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36) or a nested simulation (Pre02d_12) and did not integrate any new inventory data. In lieu of individual final reports for simulations Pre02d_36, Pre02e_36, Pre02f_36, and Pre02d_12, we are documenting these simulations collectively in this project repo rt. The inventories used for Pr e02d_36 represent the last set of inventory files received in 2004; the documentation for these data and the simulations that used them is included in this report.
Table A-1 in Appendix A gives details about the inventory files received after the completion of simulation Pre02c_36, which represent the final se t of 2002 inventories used during project year 2004. The information in Table A-1 includes exac t emissions inventory file names, the source agency of the files with the delivery date to th e RMC, the number of records in the files, the spatial and temporal coverage of the files, and th e pollutants contained in the files. The inventory files used in the Pre02d_36, Pre02e_36, Pre02f_36, and Pre0 2d_12 modeling are a combination of files created by WRAP inventor y contractors, files created by contractors for other RPOs, the NEI2002 provided by the U.S. EPA, and inventories supplied by the U.S. EPA in cooperation with Environment Canada and the Mexican go vernment. The files prepared for the WRAP, VISTAS, and CENRAP are actual 2002 inventories for each respective region, and the NEI2002 covers the areas of the U.S. domain not included in the RPO inventories. The Canadian data are a preliminary 2000 province-level in ventory distributed by the U.S. EPA, and the Mexican data are the same 1999 dataset that the WRAP RMC used throughout all of the preliminary 2002 modeling. Additional details about these data are provided in Sections 5.2.1 through 5.2.11. First, we provide brief background info rmation on the primary emissions categories used in SMOKE modeling.
Emissions inventories are typical ly divided into area, mobile, point, and biogenic source categories. These divisions stem from differing methods for preparing the inventories, different characteristics and attributes of the categories, and how the emissions are pr ocessed through models. Generally, emissions inventories are divided into the following s ource categories, which we refer to later in the section as “SMOKE processing categories.”

• Stationary area: Sources that are treated as being sp read over a spatial extent (usually a county or air district) and th at are not movable (as compar ed to nonroad mobile and onroad mobile sources). Because it is not possi ble to collect the emissions at each point of emission, they are estimated over larger regi ons. Examples of stati onary area sources areFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

102 residential heating and architectural coatings . Numerous sources, such as dry cleaning facilities, may be treated either as stati onary area sources or as point sources.

• Mobile sources: Vehicular sources that travel on roadways. These sources can be computed either as being spread over a spatial extent or as be ing assigned to a line location (called a link). Data in on-road inventories can be either emissions or activity data. Activity data consist of vehicle miles trav eled (VMT) and, optionally, vehicle speed. Activity data are used when SMOKE will be computing emission factors via another model, such as MOBILE6. Examples of on -road mobile sources include light-duty gasoline vehicles and hea vy-duty diesel vehicles.

• Point sources: These are sources that are identifie d by point locations, typically because they are regulated and their locations are avai lable in regulatory repor ts. Point sources are often further subdivided into electric gene rating utilities (EGUs) and non-EGU sources, particularly in criteria inventories in which EGUs are a primary source of NO x and SO 2 . Examples of non-EGU point sources include chemical manufacturers and furniture refinishers. Point sources are included in both criteria and toxics inventories.

• Biogenic land use data: Biogenic land use data characte rize the types of vegetation that exist in either county-total or grid cell values. The biogenic land use data in North America are available using two different sets of land use cate gories: the Biogenic Emissions Landcover Database (BELD) vers ion 2 (BELD2), and the BELD version 3 (BELD3) (CEP, 2004b).
To initiate the preliminary 2002 modeling, we re fined the emissions source categories from the standard definitions listed above to include more explicit emissions sectors. The advantage of using more detailed definitions of the source cate gories is that it leads to more flexibility in designing control strategies, subs tituting new inventory or profile data into the modeling, and managing the input and output data from SMOKE. The major drawback to defining more emissions source categories is the in creased level of complexity that results from having a larger number of input datasets. Table 5-2 summarizes the entire group of source sectors that composed each of the major emissions simulations comp leted for the preliminary 2002 WRAP emissions modeling. The rest of Section 5.2 describes all of these various emissions sectors in detail. Each of the emissions sectors is described in term s of the SMOKE processing category, the year covered by the inventory, and the source(s) of the data. Additiona l details about the inventories are also provided, including any modifications that we made to prepare them for input into SMOKE.

Table 5-2. Emissions inventory categories in cluded in the preliminary 2002 simulations.

Emissions Sector Pre02a Pre02b Pre02c Pre02d Pre02e Pre02f Stationary Area 9 9 9 9 9 9
Road Dust 9 9 9 9 9 9
Windblown Dust 9 Fugitive Dust 9 9 9 9 * 9 9 Agricultural and Natural NH 3 9 9 9 9 * 9 9Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

103 Emissions Sector Pre02a Pre02b Pre02c Pre02d Pre02e Pre02f
On-road Mobile 9 9 9 9 9 9
Nonroad Mobile 9 9 9 9 9 9
Offshore Mobile 9
Offshore Point 9 9 9 9 9 9 Stationary Point 9 9 9 9 9 9 WRAP Agricultural Fires 9 9 9 9 WRAP Prescribed (Rx) Fires 9 WRAP Anthropogenic Rx Fires 9 9
WRAP Natural Rx Fires 9 9 9
WRAP Wildfires 9 9 9 9
VISTAS Fires 9 Biogenic 9 9 9 9 9 9

* These sources are represented explicitly as separate categories in simulation Pre02d.


### 5.2.1 Stationary area sources
We initialized the preliminary 2002 stationa ry-area-source emissions modeling up through simulation Pre02c_36 by combining an inventory developed by E.H. Pechan and Associates specifically for the WRAP modeling with the NEI96 (U.S. EPA, 2003a) “grown” to 2002 by the RMC. The annual WRAP inventory represented actual 2002 emissions and contained data for both the WRAP and CENRAP states (Pechan, 2003). To cover the rest of the U.S., we grew the NEI96 inventory to 2002 using Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) 4.0 growth factors (Pechan, 2001). We used the EPA 1995 Clear Sk ies inventory for Canada (U.S. EPA., 2003b) and the 1999 Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational Study (BRAVO) inventory for Mexico (Kuhns et al ., 2003) to cover the non-U.S. i nventories. In September and November 2004, we made the final round of i nventory updates for the year, resulting in simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12. Starting in September, we created simulation Pre02d_36 by replacing the grown NEI96 data with update d inventories that Al pine Geophysics began distributing in May 2004: an actu al 2002 area-source inventory for the VISTAS region (Alpine, 2004), the preliminary NEI2002 inventory for the re st of the U.S. (U.S . EPA, 2004b), and areasource fire data for the CENRAP and VISTAS stat es (Alpine, 2004). In November the U.S. EPA posted a preliminary 2000 area-source inventory for Canada through the Emissions Factors and Inventory Group (EFIG) web site (U.S. EPA, 200 4c). We replaced the Canadian area-source inventories with these new data as the final area-source invent ory update for simulation Pre02d. Table 5-3 summarizes the U.S. stationary-area-source inventories used for all simulations in the preliminary 2002 modeling. The highlighted cells in the table illustrate the major inventory update just described that occurred during the preliminary 2002 modeling for simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

104 Table 5-3. Preliminary 2002 stationary-area -source emissions inventory summary with references for inventorie s used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Stationary area Inventory Years: 2002 (U.S.), 1995 or 2000 (Canada), 1999 (Mexico) Temporal Coverage: Annual Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, SO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NH 3

Simulation WRAP CENRAP MRPO* VISTAS MANE-VU* Mexico Canada Pre02a_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02b_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02c_36/12 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02c_PinG Same as Pre02c but with top 100 NO x and SO 2 point sources treated with plume-in-grid Pre02c_36s01 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02d_36/12 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004b Alpine, 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004c Pre02e_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02f_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b
*MRPO = Midwest Regional Planning Organization; MANE-VU = Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union



### 5.2.2 Road dust sources

To create the U.S. road dust emissions inventor y for the preliminary 2002 modeling, we linearly interpolated between the 1996 and 2018 seasonal ro ad dust inventories created by ENVIRON in late 2003 (Pollack et al., 2004). As a derivativ e of the 1996 and 2018 inventories, the 2002 road dust inventory uses the same me thodology to account for the tran sportable fraction reductions as was used in developing the inventories for the WRAP §309 modeling performed in 2001-2003 (Pollack et al., 2004). The seasonal U.S. road dust inventory covers th e entire country and includes PM 2.5 and PM 10 emissions for both paved and unpaved roads. We extracted the source classification codes (SCCs) for paved a nd unpaved road dust emissions (2294000000 and 2296000000) from the Canada and Mexico area-source inventories to create separate road dust inventories for these sections of the modeling domain. Table 5-4 summarizes the road dust inventories used for the preliminary 2002 modeling. The road dust inventories did not change throughout all of the prelim inary 2002 WRAP modeling.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

105 Table 5-4. Preliminary 2002 road dust emissi ons inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Stationary area Inventory Year: 2002 (US), 1995 (Canada), 1999 (Mexico) Temporal Coverage: Seasonal (U.S.), annu al (Canada, Mexico) Pollutants: PM 10 , PM 2.5

Simulation WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada
All Simulations Pollack et al., 2004 Pollack et al., 2004 Pollack et al., 2004 Pollack et al., 2004 Pollack et al., 2004 Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b



### 5.2.3 Windblown dust
Pre02d_36 was the first preliminary 2002 simula tion completed by the RMC that contained emissions from the WRAP windblown dust model (M ansell, 2004a). Refer to Section 10 of this report for the technical detail s of the windblown dust emissions used in simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12.



### 5.2.4 Anthropogenic fu gitive dust sources
For all of the preliminary 2002 simulations be fore Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12, anthropogenic fugitive dust (referred to herein as just “fugitiv e dust”) emissions were included in the areasource inventory; they did not have transport fractions (which indicate the portion that is transported out of a source area) applied to them . To create the fugitive dust inventory for the Pre02d modeling, we removed the area sources represented by the SCCs in Table 5-5 and replaced them with data from the U.S. inve ntory prepared by Alpi ne Geophysics for VISTAS modeling (Alpine, 2004). The VISTAS inventory uses county-based transp ort fractions based on county land cover data. For Canada, we extracte d the SCCs listed in Table 5-5 from the 2000 Canadian inventory (U.S. EPA, 2004c) for use in simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12. There are no fugitive dust emissions in the BRAVO 1999 invent ory for Mexico. Table 5-6 summarizes the fugitive dust inventories used for the prelim inary 2002 modeling. The highlighted cells in the table indicate the major inventory update th at occurred during the preliminary 2002 modeling for simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12.

Table 5-5. SCCs removed from the area-sourc e inventories and replaced with VISTAS or Canadian inventory data to represen t explicit fugitive dust emissions.

SCC Description Canada* 2275085000 Aircraft;Unpaved Airstrips;Total N 2311010000 Construction:General Building Construction;Total Y 2311010070 Construction:General Buildi ng Construction;Vehicle Traffic N 2311020000 Construction:Heav y Construction;Total Y 2311030000 Construction: Ro ad Construction;Total Y 2325000000 Mining and Quarryin g: All Processes;Total YFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

106 2801000003 Agriculture Production - Cr ops;Agriculture - Crops;Tilling Y 2801000005 Agriculture Production - Crops ;Agriculture - Crops;Harvesting N 2801000008 Agriculture Production - Crops ;Agriculture - Crops;Transport Y 2805001000 Agriculture Production - Liv estock;Beef Cattle Feedlots;Dust Kicked-up by Hooves Y

* Y = SCC present in Canadian inventory, N = not present.

Table 5-6. Preliminary 2002 fugitive dust emi ssions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Stationary area Inventory Year: 2002 (US), 1995 (Canada), 1999 (Mexico) Temporal Coverage: Seasonal (U.S.), annu al (Canada, Mexico) Pollutants: PM 10 , PM 2.5

Simulation WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada Pre02a_36 in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory not available in area inventory Pre02b_36 in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory not available in area inventory Pre02c_36/12 in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory not available in area inventory Pre02c_PinG Same as Pre02c but with top 100 NO x and SO 2 point sources treated with plume-in-grid Pre02c_36s01 in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory not available in area inventory Pre02d_36/12 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 not available U.S. EPA, 2004c Pre02e_36 in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory not available in area inventory Pre02f_36 in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory in area inventory not available in area inventory



### 5.2.5 Agricultural NH 3 

### sources
Pre02d_36 was the first preliminary 2002 simula tion completed by the RMC that contained explicit emissions from the WRAP agricultural NH 3 emissions model (Mansell, 2004b). Refer to Section 2 of this report for the technical details of the model used to prepare NH 3 emissions for simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12. To limit redundancy in the emissions modeling, we removed several SCCs from the U.S. area-source inventory that were repr esented explicitly in the NH 3 emissions model. As only U.S. emissions are represented by the NH 3 model, we retained these SCCs in the area-source invent ories for Mexico and Canada. Table B-1 inFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

107 Appendix B lists the SCCs and desc riptions of the agricultural NH 3 emissions sources that we removed from the U.S. area-source inventory.



### 5.2.6 On-road mobile sources

To model the U.S. on-road mobile sources for all preliminary 2002 simulations except Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12, we combined precomputedmobile-source emissions with mobilesource activity data from the NEI99 (U.S. EP A, 2004a). ENVIRON created SMOKE emissions inputs for the WRAP states by running stand-al one versions of MOBILE6 and PART5 (Pollack et al., 2004). These seasonal 2003 inventories treate d California separately from the rest of the WRAP region because of state-specific c ontrols and technologies for on-road mobile sources that apply only to California. For bot h the California and “Other-WRA P” inventories, these files contain prespeciated PM 2.5 inventories in addition to the gas-phase pollutants and PM 10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 μm in diameter). Because thes e inventories contain precomputed emissions (daily emissions by source by county), we modeled them as area sources. We modeled the rest of the U.S. as mobile sources with MOBILE6 in SMOKE using activity data from the annual NEI99. We used the EPA 1995 Clear Skies on-road mobile inventory for Canada (U.S. EPA., 2003b) and the BRAVO 1999 on-road mobile inventory for Mexico (Kuhns et al., 2003) to cover the non-U.S. inventories. For simu lations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12 we replaced the non-WRAP U.S. activities with the preliminar y NEI2002 (U.S. EPA, 2004b), and the Canadian inventory with the 2000 inventory that became av ailable in November 2004 (U.S. EPA, 2004c). Table 5-7 summarizes the U.S. on-road mobile -source inventories that we used for all simulations in the preliminary 2002 modeling. The highlighted cells in th e table illustrate the major inventory update that occurred for simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12.

Table 5-7. Preliminary 2002 on-road mobile-s ource emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Stationary area (WRAP, Canada, Mexico), mobile (rest of U.S) Inventory Year: 2003 (WRAP), 2002 (rest of U.S.), 1995 or 2000 (Canada), 1999 (Mexico) Temporal Coverage: Seasonal (WRAP), annual (rest of U.S., Canada, Mexico) Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, NH 3 , SO 2 , SO 4_2.5 , PMC_PRE, EC 2.5 , OC 2.5 , OTHER 2.5 , VMT, speed
Simulation WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada Pre02a_36 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02b_36 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02c_36/12 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02c_PinG Same as Pre02c but with top 100 NO x and SO 2 point sources treated with plume-in-grid Pre02c_36s01 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02d_36/12 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004cFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

108 SMOKE Processing Category: Stationary area (WRAP, Canada, Mexico), mobile (rest of U.S) Inventory Year: 2003 (WRAP), 2002 (rest of U.S.), 1995 or 2000 (Canada), 1999 (Mexico) Temporal Coverage: Seasonal (WRAP), annual (rest of U.S., Canada, Mexico) Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, NH 3 , SO 2 , SO 4_2.5 , PMC_PRE, EC 2.5 , OC 2.5 , OTHER 2.5 , VMT, speed
Simulation WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada Pre02e_36 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02f_36 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a U.S. EPA, 2004a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b



### 5.2.7 Nonroad mobile sources
To create the nonroad mobile-source inventory for all preliminary 2002 simulations, the RMC combined seasonal 2003 inventories for the WRAP states with the U.S. NEI, the Canadian National Pollutant Release Inventor y, and data extracted from the Mexico area-sour ce inventory. For modeling the WRAP region, we used an inventory developed by ENVIRON. Using NONROAD2003, ENVIRON created s easonal emissions inventories for the WRAP states only (Pollack et al., 2004). Like the on-road mob ile-source emissions, the WRAP nonroad mobilesource inventories contain prespeciated PM 2.5 inventories in addition to the gas-phase pollutants and PM 10 . For the simulations up through Pre02c_36, to model the rest of the U.S. we grew the NEI96 inventory (U.S. EPA., 2003a) to 2002 using E GAS 4.0 growth factors. We used the EPA 1995 Clear Skies on-road mobile-source data for Canada (U.S. EPA., 2003b) and the BRAVO 1999 on-road mobile inventory for Mexico (Kuhns et al., 2003) to cover the non-U.S. inventories. For simulations Pre02d_36 a nd Pre02d_12 we replaced the non-WRAP U.S. inventories with the preliminary NEI2002 (U.S. EPA, 2004b) and the Canadian inventory with the updated 2000 inventory that became availabl e in November 2004 (U.S. EPA, 2004c). Table 5-8 summarizes the U.S. nonroad mobile-source inve ntories that we used for all simulations in the preliminary 2002 modeling. The highlighted cells in the table illustrate the major inventory update that we performed for si mulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12.

Table 5-8. Preliminary 2002 nonroad mobile-s ource emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Stationary area Inventory Year: 2003 (WRAP), 2002 (rest of U.S.), 1995 or 2000 (Canada), 1999 (Mexico) Temporal Coverage: Seasonal (WRAP), annual (rest of U.S., Canada, Mexico) Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, NH 3 , SO 2 , SO 4_2.5 , PMC_PRE, EC 2.5 , OC 2.5 , OTHER 2.5

Simulation WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada Pre02a_36 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02b_36 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02c_36/12 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003bFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

109 SMOKE Processing Category: Stationary area Inventory Year: 2003 (WRAP), 2002 (rest of U.S.), 1995 or 2000 (Canada), 1999 (Mexico) Temporal Coverage: Seasonal (WRAP), annual (rest of U.S., Canada, Mexico) Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, NH 3 , SO 2 , SO 4_2.5 , PMC_PRE, EC 2.5 , OC 2.5 , OTHER 2.5

Simulation WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada Pre02c_PinG Same as Pre02c but with top 100 NO x and SO 2 point sources treated with plume-in-grid Pre02c_36s01 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02d_36/12 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004c Pre02e_36 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02f_36 Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a U.S. EPA, 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b



### 5.2.8 Stationary point sources
We initialized the preliminary 2002 stationary-poi nt-source emissions modeling by combining an actual 2002 inventory developed by E.H. Pechan and Associates specifically for the WRAP modeling with the NEI96 grown to 2002 by the RMC. For all simulations except Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12, we used the entire annual WRAP inve ntory containing data for both the WRAP and CENRAP states (Pechan, 2003), and for the rest of the U.S. we grew the NEI96 inventory (U.S. EPA., 2003a) to 2002 using EGAS 4.0 growth factor s (Pechan, 2001). We used version 1 of the EPA 1995 Clear Skies inventory for Canada (U.S . EPA, 2003b) and the BRAVO 1999 inventory for Mexico (Kuhns et al., 2003) to cover the non -U.S. inventories. The major update to the stationary-point-sour ce inventory for simulations Pre 02d_36 and Pre02d_12 was replacing all of the non-WRAP U.S. inventories with NEI2002 (U.S . EPA, 2004b) data. We removed the records for the CENRAP states from the 2002 WRAP inve ntory generated by Pechan and replaced these data with the preliminary NEI2002. Table 5-9 summarizes the sta tionary-point-source inventories that we used for a ll simulations in the preliminar y 2002 modeling. The highlighted cells in the table illustrate the major invent ory update that occurred for simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

110 Table 5-9. Preliminary 2002 stationary-point -source emissions inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Point Inventory Year: 2002 (US), 1999 (Mexico) Temporal Coverage: Annual Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, SO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NH 3

Simulation WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada Pre02a_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02b_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02c_36/12 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02c_PinG Same as Pre02c but with top 100 NO x and SO 2 point sources treated with plume-in-grid Pre02c_36s01 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02d_36/12 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02e_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b Pre02f_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) (U.S. EPA., 2003a) Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b



### 5.2.9 Offshore sources
5.2.9.1 Offshore point sources
The RMC combined a 1996 emissions inventory fo r the Gulf of Mexico with 2002 data for California to create an offs hore-point-source inventory for th e preliminary 2002 modeling. We obtained the Gulf of Mexico data from the EP A Clear Skies database (U.S. EPA, 2003b). The California data we extracted from a spreadshee t provided by the Californi a Air Resources Board (CARB) (Michael Benjamin, CARB, personal communication, February 11, 2004). Table 5-10 summarizes the U.S. offshore-poi nt-source inventories we used . The offshore-point-source inventories did not change throughout all of the prel iminary 2002 WRAP modeling.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

111 Table 5-10. Preliminary 2002 offshore-point-source emissions inventory summary with references for inventor ies used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Point Inventory Year: 1996 (Gulf of Mexico), 2002 (CA) Temporal Coverage: Annual Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, SO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NH 3 Simulation Gulf of Mexico California All simulations US. EPA, 2003b Michael Benjamin, CARB, personal communication, February 11, 2004

5.2.9.2 Offshore mobile sources
During the QA of simulation Pre02c, we determined that a portion of th e shipping emissions in the WRAP states was not being spatially allocated correctly. SCC 2280002000 in the nonroad inventory represents both in-port and ocean-going shipping emissions (Poll ack et al., 2004). The ocean-going portion of this SCC accounts for shi pping traffic outside of ports and within 25 miles of landfall. The “Marine Ports” spatial surr ogate that we used to spatially allocate this source placed all of the emissions in ports and did not account for the ocean-going portion of the data. To reconcile this issue, UNC-CEP and ENVIRON split out the ocean-going emissions from SCC 2280002000 to a new source that we represented by SCC 2280002001.
After this correction, the original shipping S CC represented only in-port emissions and was spatially allocated using the “Marine Ports” su rrogate. The new SCC represents the ocean-going emissions and is spatially allocated with a custom spatial surrogate created by UNC-CEP especially for the WRAP modeling. We created this new surrogate (“Ocean-going Shipping”) manually using information provided by ENVIRON a bout the locations of the ports with emissions represented in the WRAP nonroad mobile-sour ce inventory. We allocated the emissions to cells within 25 miles of the ports in the WRAP nonroad mobile-source inve ntories that contained emissions. We used the data from the summ er season nonroad mobile-source inventory to represent the annual ocean-going shipping emissions. For those counties that contained shipping emissions but did not have any ports, we alloca ted the emissions within 25 miles of land along the entire coast of the county. We introduced the offshore-mobile-s ource emissions into simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12. Table 5-11 summarizes the U.S. offshore-mobile-source inventory used for these two simulations. Figure 5-2 is an example of the ocean-going shipping emissions in the WRAP region of the 36-km modeling domain.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

112 Table 5-11. Preliminary 2002 offshore-mo bile-source emissions inventory summary with references for inventor ies used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Stationary area Inventory Year: 2002 Temporal Coverage: Annual Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, SO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NH 3

Simulation U.S. Pacific Coast Pre02d_36/12 Pollack et al., 2004

Figure 5-2. Example of WRAP ocean- going shipping CO emissions in the 36-km modeling domain.



### 5.2.10 Fire sources
The WRAP Fire Emissions Joint Forum (FEJF) c ontractors provided fire inventories as SMOKE point-source files for the 13-state WRAP region. Prior to the Pre02d_36 simulation, we modeled U.S. and Canadian fires outside of the WRAP do main in the area-source inventory; the Mexican inventories do not contain any fire data. One of the invent ory updates for simulation Pre02d_36 included adding point-source fires for the VISTAS states (Alpine, 2004). The preliminary 2002 WRAP fire inventories included two separate fire categories: prescribed (“Rx”) burning, and wildfires. In September 2004 we received refined fire inventories from Ai r Sciences Inc. (the WRAP fire emissions inventory contractor) that split the prescribed fire inventory into natural and anthropogenic fires and included a new 2002 wildfire inventory (Randall, 2004a). AllFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

113 WRAP fire inventories include daily emissions data and hourly, precomputed plume rise information. To represent agricultural burning in the preliminary 2002 modeling, we used the 2018 inventory that was originally develope d during the RMC’s §309 modeling and included base smoke management controls on the fire sources (Air Sciences, 2004). The 2002 prescribed and wildfire inventories were created specifically for the pr eliminary and final 2002 modeling (Randall, 2004a). The fire invent ory contractor delivered the file s as annual inventories with three files per fire category: (1) PTINV inventory files with latitude-longit ude (lat-lon) locations for the fires; (2) PTDAY files with daily emi ssions totals for each fi re; and (3) PTHOUR files with hourly plume rise characte ristics that included for each fire the fraction of emissions allocated to model layer 1, the t op of the plume in meters, and the bottom of the plume in meters. Additional details about each of the fire inventories used in the preliminary 2002 emissions modeling follow.
5.2.10.1 Agricultural fires
The RMC used the 2018 base smoke management agricultural burning in ventory (version July 31, 2002) to represent agricultura l fires in the WRAP region for the preliminary 2002 modeling. The agricultural fires are the one source that did not change throughout all of the preliminary 2002 modeling. Table 5-12 summarizes the ag ricultural fire inventory we used.

Table 5-12. Preliminary WRAP 2002 agric ultural fire emissi ons inventory summary with references for inventor ies used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Point with precomputed plume rise Inventory Year: 2018 Temporal Coverage: Daily emissions, hourly plume rise Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, SO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NH 3

Simulation Agricultural fires in the WRAP states Pre02a_36 Air Sciences, 2004 Pre02b_36 not used Pre02c_36/12 Air Sciences, 2004 Pre02c_PinG Not applicable Pre02c_36s01 Air Sciences, 2004 Pre02d_36/12 Air Sciences, 2004 Pre02e_36 not used Pre02f_36 Air Sciences, 2004

5.2.10.2 Prescribed fires
In May 2003, Air Sciences Inc. provided actu al 2002 prescribed-fire in ventories for the WRAP region to include in the preliminary 2002 modelin g (Randall, 2004a). Afte r splitting the annualFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

114 inventory file into monthly files, * the RMC included these data in emissions simulation Pre02c_36. In September 2004 Air Sciences deliver ed to us a refined se t of 2002 prescribed-fire inventories for the WRAP region that distinguishe d between natural prescribed fire events and anthropogenic ones (Randall, 2004b). Due to th e large number of events in the naturalprescribed-fire inventory, we on ce again split the annua l inventory into monthly files to avoid memory problems with SMOKE; the anthropogenic pres cribed fires we were able to model as an annual inventory. The RMC included both of the refined prescribed -fire inventories in simulations Pre02d_36, Pre02d_12, and Pre02f_36, while in simulation Pre02e_36 we included only the natural-prescribed-fire inventory. Simulations Pre02e _36 and Pre02f_36, derived from the Pre02b_36 simulation, were designed for ev aluating the effects of the new WRAP fire inventories and the effects of natural versus an thropogenic fire emissions on modeled haze in the WRAP region. To see the results of these emi ssions sensitivities on air quality model result, please refer to Section 12 of this report. Tabl e 5-13 summarizes the prescribed-fire inventories that the RMC used in the different preliminary 2002 emissions simulations.

Table 5-13. Preliminary WRAP 2002 pres cribed-fire emissions inventory summary with references for inventor ies used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Point with precomputed plume rise Inventory Year: 2002 Temporal Coverage: Daily emissions, hourly plume rise Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, SO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NH 3 Simulation Total Prescribed Fires in the WRAP States Natural Prescribed Fires in the WRAP States Anthropogenic Prescribed Fires in the WRAP States Pre02a_36 not used not used not used Pre02b_36 not used not used not used Pre02c_36/12 Randall, 2004a not uses not used Pre02c_PinG Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Pre02c_36s01 Randal, 2004a not used not used Pre02d_36/12 not used Randall, 2004b Randall, 2004b Pre02e_36 not used Randall, 2004b not used Pre02f_36 not used Randall, 2004b Randall, 2004b

5.2.10.3 Wildfires
In May 2004 Air Sciences Inc. provided actual 2 002 wildfire inventories for the WRAP region to include in the preliminary 2002 modeling (Randall, 2004a). We included these wildfire emissions in the simulations based on the Pre02c inventories. Then in September, Air Sciences delivered a refined 2002 WRAP-region wildfire i nventory to us (Randall, 2004b). We included this refined inventory in si mulations Pre02d_36, Pre02d_12, Pre 02e_36, and Pre02f_36. Table

* We split the files because the large number of sources in the annual in ventory caused SMOKE to run out of memory.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

115 5-14 summarizes the wildfire i nventories that the RMC used in the various preliminary 2002 emissions simulations.

Table 5-14. Preliminary 2002 wildfire emissions inventory summary with references for inventorie s used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Point with precomputed plume rise Inventory Year: 2002 Temporal Coverage: Daily emissions, hourly plume rise Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, SO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NH 3

Simulation Wildfires in the WRAP states Pre02a_36 not used Pre02b_36 not used Pre02c_36/12 Randall, 2004a Pre02c_PinG Not applicable Pre02c_36s01 Randall, 2004a Pre02d_36/12 Randall, 2004b Pre02e_36 Randall, 2004b Pre02f_36 Randall, 2004b

5.2.10.4 Other fire sources
In the May 2004 release of VIST AS actual 2002 inventories, Alpi ne Geophysics provided pointsource and area-source fires for the VISTAS a nd CENRAP regions. The RMC adopted these files for the WRAP, integrating them in the preliminary 2002 modeling st arting with simulation Pre02d_36. The VISTAS fire inventories consist of both a point-source in ventory for the large wildfires and an area-source inventory for the agricultural fires, solid waste burning, prescribed fires, and small wildfires. The VISTAS point-sour ce fire inventory is stru ctured like the WRAP point-source fire inventories, consisting of daily emissions and hourly precomputed plume rise information. The CENRAP fire inve ntory treats agricultura l fires, prescribed fires, and wildfires, regardless of size, as stationary area sources. Other U.S. fire sources, such as municipal waste burning, yard waste burning, and structure fires, are contained in the area-source inventories for all regions of the country, includ ing the WRAP states. Canadian fires are all contained in the area-source inventory and include agricultural fires, wildfires, municipal and residential waste burning, and structure fires. Me xican fires are also contained in the area-source inventory and include agricultural fires, municipal and resident ial waste burning, and structure fires. Table 5-15 summarizes the fire inventories that we used in the preliminary 2002 emissions simulations in addition to the WRAP agricultural, prescrib ed, and wildfire inventories discussed above.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

116 Table 5-15. Preliminary 2002 other fire emissi ons inventory summary with references for inventories used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Point with precomputed plume rise (VISTAS); stationary area (entire domain) Inventory Year: 2002 (US), 1995/2000 (Canada), 1999 (Mexico) Temporal Coverage: Daily emissions (VISTAS), hourly plume rise (VISTAS), annual (entire domain) Pollutants: VOC, NO x , CO, SO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NH 3

Simulation WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada Pre02a_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003b Pre02b_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003b Pre02c_36/12 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003b Pre02c_PinG Same as Pre02c but with top 100 NO x and SO 2 point sources treated with plume-in-grid Pre02c_36s01 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003b Pre02d_36/12 Pechan, 2003 Alpine, 2004; U.S. EPA,

2003a U.S. EPA, 2004b Alpine, 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA., 2004c

Pre02e_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003b Pre02f_36 Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a U.S. EPA., 2003a Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA., 2003b



### 5.2.11 Biogenic sources
While most of the emissions inventory data came either directly from WRAP inventory contractors or from EPA, the RMC benefited from prev ious work done using the RPO Unified domain by acquiring gridded biogenic land use file s developed by Alpine Geophysics for VISTAS modeling (Alpine, 2004). The VIST AS gridded land use data came to us in the form of binary input files for running the Bioge nic Emissions Inventory System , version 3 (BEIS3) in SMOKE; they cover the entire RPO Unified domain, includ ing Mexico and Canada. The first set of BEIS3 biogenic emission factors that we used through simulation Pre02c_36 was version 0.97 and came from EPA (2004d). Starting in simulation Pre02d_36 we used an updated set of emissions factors, version 0.98, also provided by EPA (2004d) . The differences in these files relate to emissions factor changes for fir and spruce trees . Table 5-16 summarizes the biogenic emissions inputs that we used in the prel iminary 2002 emissions simulations.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

117 Table 5-16. Preliminary 2002 biogenic emissions inventory summary with references for inventorie s used in all simulations. SMOKE Processing Category: Biogenic Inventory Year: 2002 Temporal Coverage: n/a Pollutants: n/a

Simulation Gridded Land Use BELD Emissions Factors Pre02a_36 Alpine, 2004 v0.97 (U.S. EPA, 2004d) Pre02b_36 Alpine, 2004 v0.97 (U.S. EPA, 2004d) Pre02c_36/12 Alpine, 2004 v0.97 (U.S. EPA, 2004d) Pre02c_PinG Not applicable Not applicable Pre02c_36s01 Alpine, 2004 v0.97 (U.S. EPA, 2004d) Pre02d_36/12 Alpine, 2004 v0.98 (U.S. EPA, 2004d) Pre02e_36 Alpine, 2004 v0.97 (U.S. EPA, 2004d) Pre02f_36 Alpine, 2004 v0.97 (U.S. EPA, 2004d)



### 5.2.12 Inventories summary for the fi nal preliminary 2002 simulations

Table 5-17 summarizes all of the inventories used in the final iterations of the preliminary 2002 WRAP modeling performed in 2004: simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12. * This table includes the inventory categories modele d, the inventories’ spatial and temporal coverages, and the sources of the data. The cells in Table 5-17 pr ovide references for the documentation for each inventory. The color codes corr espond to the temporal coverage s (see key at bottom of table). The spatial coverages of the inve ntories are provided in terms of the RPO or country represented in each inventory. The table incl udes inventory coverage for all fi ve of the U.S. RPOs and for Mexico and Canada.

Table 5-17. Summary of final preliminary 200 2 emissions inventories compiled during 2004 and used for simulations Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12.
Inventory WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada Stationary

area Pechan, 2003 Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004b Alpine, 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004c

Road dust Pollack et al., 2004 Pollack et al., 2004 Pollack et al., 2004 Pollack et al., 2004 Pollack et al., 2004 Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b
Windblown dust Mansell, 2004a Mansell, 2004a Mansell, 2004a Mansell, 2004a Mansell, 2004a Not available U.S. EPA, 2004c
Fugitive dust Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Not available U.S. EPA, 2004c

*The same kind of table for simulations Pre02a, Pre02b, and Pre02c was given in “2004 Interim Report for the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) Regional Modeling Center (RMC)”; see Table 5-14 in that report.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

118 Inventory WRAP CENRAP MRPO VISTAS MANE-VU Mexico Canada Agricultural NH 3 Mansell, 2004b Mansell, 2004b Mansell, 2004b Mansell, 2004b Mansell, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004c On-road mobile Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004c On-road mobile (CA) Pollack et al., 2004 Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable
Nonroad mobile Pollack et al., 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004c Stationary point Pechan, 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2003b
Offshore point CARB, 2004 U.S. EPA, 2003b Not available Not available Not available Not available Not available
Offshore mobile Pollack et al., 2004 Not available Not available Not available Not available Not available Not available
WRAP agricultural fires Randall, 2004b Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable

WRAPanthropogenic Rx fires Randall, 2004b, Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable

WRAP natural Rx fires Randall, 2004b Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable

WRAP wildfires Randall, 2004b Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable

Other fire

sources Not applicable Alpine, 2004; U.S. EPA,

2003a U.S. EPA, 2004b Alpine, 2004 U.S. EPA, 2004b Kuhns et al., 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004c

Biogenic Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Alpine, 2004 Annual inventory Seasonal inventory Daily meteorology-dependent emissions



### 5.3 WRAP 2002 Ancillary Emissions Inputs

In addition to emissions invent ories, SMOKE requires various ki nds of supporting information, such as data that describe how to distribute the emissions in space and time, data that enable the partitioning of emitted pollutants to different ch emical parameterizations , and meteorology data for modeling certain source categories. We refer to these supporting data as SMOKE ancillary inputs. Examples of other ancillary information include tables of defau lt stationary-p oint-source stack parameters; numeric codes for indexing co untries, states, and counties; and detailed descriptions of the modeled sources by SCC. For all ancillary information other than the meteorology data, the SMOKE direct ory structure stores these data in a general data directory aliased by the environmen t variable GE_DAT.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

119 Except for the temporal profile/cross-reference fi les and the spatial surrogates/cross-reference files, all of the nonmeteorology ancillary emissions input files that we used for the preliminary 2002 modeling originated from the SMOKE version 2 distribution (sources for the temporal and spatial ancillary files are discussed below). We initiated the preliminary 2002 modeling with nonmeteorology ancillary SMOKE inputs from th e §309 modeling that the RMC performed in 2002-2003. Throughout the preliminary 2002 modeling we made minor updates to these data and added new inventory-specific information as they were delivered with the new inventories. We also generated an initial set of 2002 36-km and 12-km meteorology data that we used in all of the preliminary 2002 emissions modeling to model plum e rise from stationary point sources and fires, biogenic emissions, and on-road mobile activ ities; these data are described in detail in Section 4 of this report. The rest of Section 1.3 highlights the s ources of and major updates to the SMOKE ancillary data used in the prelimin ary 2002 modeling and is organized by each major class of ancillary data. Tables A-2 and A-3 in Appendix A summarize the ASCII and binary ancillary input files used in th e Pre02d_36 modeling. For detailed listings of the ancillary inputs used in Pre02a_36, Pre02b_36, and Pre02c_36, pl ease refer to the final reports for those simulations.



### 5.3.1 Temporal allocation data
SMOKE uses temporal profiles and SCC cross-re ference files to apply monthly, weekly, and daily temporal variability to a nnual and daily emissions inventor ies. Temporal profiles are a group of scalars that describe th e fraction of emissions allocated to each specific temporal unit (i.e., month of the year, day of the week, or hour of the day). An accompanying temporal crossreference file associates monthly, weekly, and di urnal profiles (indexed with a numeric code) to SCCs. Temporal profile and cross-reference files combine to form the SMOKE temporal allocation data and contain profiles for most i nventory sources; for sources that do not have entries in these files, default profiles are applied. The default temporal profiles are flat—in other words, they do not vary across months, days, or hours. We initiated the preliminary 2002 emissions modeling with temporal data de veloped during the WR AP §309 modeling (Houyoux et al., 2003).
Throughout the preliminary 2002 modeling, the RMC integrated new inventories into the WRAP modeling that required the additi on of new profiles and cross-refe rences to the base temporal data. Adelman and Omary (2004) document the add ition of temporal profiles to model the new SCCs contained in the WRAP on-road mobile -source inventory. Adelman and Holland (2004) describe the addition of diurnal profiles for the new WRAP fire sources. For the Pre02d modeling, we added month-specific stationa ry-point-source profile s provided by Alpine Geophysics (2004) for VISTAS mo deling that are based on con tinuous emissions monitoring (CEM) data. We also added cr oss-references for the new 2002 fi re SCCs that apply the fire profiles developed for modeling simulation Pre02c (Adelman and Holland, 2004). The temporal allocation data files used in the final round of preliminary 2002 36-km emissions modeling (simulation Pre02d_36) are doc umented in Table A-2.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

120 

### 5.3.2 Spatial allocation data
SMOKE uses spatial surrogates and SCC cross-refe rence files to allocate county-level emissions inventories to model grid cells. GIS-calculated fractional land use values define the percentage of a grid cell that is covered by standard sets of land use categories. For example, spatial surrogates can define a grid ce ll as being 50% urban, 10% forest, and 40% agricultural. In addition to land use categories, spatial surroga tes can also be defi ned by demographic or industrial units, such as population or commercial area. Simila r to the temporal allocation data, an accompanying spatial cross-reference file asso ciates the spatial surr ogates (indexed with a numeric code) to SCCs. The U.S. EPA distributes GIS Shapefiles, unified spatial surrogates, and spatial cross-referencing data for modeling the U. S., Canada, and Mexico. We used the unified surrogates and cross-references files to build th e spatial allocation dataset used to model the preliminary 2002 emissions.
The RMC initiated the preliminary 2002 emissions modeling with spatial surrogates distributed by the U.S. EPA. Adelman and Omary (2004) describe the integration of the “old” EPA surrogates into simulation Pre02a_36, and Holla nd and Adelman (2004) describe the application of the same surrogates for simulation Pre02b_36. With the delivery of the VISTAS inventory and ancillary data from Alpine Geophysics in May 2004, we obtained a copy of the “new” EPA surrogates for the RPO Unified 36-km modeling doma in. We transitioned to using these data in simulation Pre02c_36 (Adelman and Holland, 20 04). The “new” EPA surrogates (U.S. EPA, 2004) use 65 surrogate categories as opposed to the 15 categories contained in the “old” surrogate dataset. UNC-CEP deve loped spatial surrogates for Ca nada on the RPO Unified 36-km domain and mapped the standard ESRI Shapefile codes to those contained in the EPA “new” surrogates. For modeling Mexico, we used Shapefiles developed fo r the BRAVO modeling to create surrogates for Mexico on the RPO Un ified 36-km domain (U.S. EPA, 2004e). The Mexico surrogates use the 15 land use categories c ontained in the EPA “old” surrogates. For the 12-km modeling, we applied the EPA Shapefiles in the “new” surrogate database to create spatial surrogates for the WRAP 12-km modeling domain. We used the same Shapefiles for Canada and Mexico that we ha d applied in the 36-km modeling. A minor difference between the 36-km and 12-km modeling is that we mapped th e ESRI/CIESIN Shapefile codes for Mexico to the U.S. EPA “new” surrogate codes (EPA99); Table 5-18 documents the mapping of spatial surrogate codes used by the RMC for the 12- km preliminary 2002 simulations (Pre02c_12 and Pre02d_12). The spatial allocation da ta files used in the final round of preliminary 2002 36-km emissions modeling (simulation Pre02d_36) are documented in Table A-2.

Table 5-18. Mapping of ESRI/CIE SIN to EPA99 codes for 12-km Mexican spatial surrogates.

ESRI Code Description Maps to... EPA99 Code Description
1 Agriculture Æ 310 Total agriculture 2 Airports Æ 700 Airport area
3 Land area Æ 340 Land 4 Housing Æ 110 HousingFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

121 ESRI Code Description Maps to... EPA99 Code Description
7 Major highways Æ 240 Total road miles 8 Population Æ 100 Population
9 Ports Æ 800 Marine ports
10 Railroads Æ 260 Total railroad miles

5.3.3 Chemical speciation data
SMOKE uses chemical profiles and SCC cross-refe rence files to map inve ntory pollutants to the various chemical parameteriza tions required by air quality m odels. For the preliminary 2002 modeling, we used Carbon Bond IV gas-phase chemistry and the third-generation CMAQ aerosol model chemistry parameterizations (aer o3). We modeled the emissions inventories specifically for these chemistry mechanisms, addi ng SCCs to the base chemical cross-reference file for new sources in the WRAP inventorie s. Adelman and Holland (2004) describe the addition of new VOC and PM 2.5 profiles and cross-reference in formation to model the WRAP fire sources. Adelman and Omary (2004) descri be the addition of chemical cross-reference codes to accommodate the new on-road mob ile-source SCCs contained in the 2002 WRAP inventories. The changes that we made to th e base chemical speciation data used for the preliminary 2002 modeling, which originated from the SMOKE version 2.0 distribution, were relatively minor. The chemical allocation da ta files used in simulation Pre02d_36 are documented in Table A-2.

5.3.4 Meteorology data
SMOKE uses meteorology data to model specific processes for stationa ry point sources and fires, biogenic emissions, and on-road mobile act ivities. The SMOKE/BEIS3.12 integration uses temperature and radiation data to calculate bi ogenic emissions. SMOKE uses temperature and atmospheric stability variables to calculate plume rise from point sources and the vertical layer structure of the meteorology to allocate the fire inventories with pre-com puted plume rise to the appropriate model layers. The SMOKE/MOBILE6 in tegration uses temperatures and humidity data to adjust mobile-source emissions factors. For additiona l details on how hourly meteorology data are used by SMOKE, please refer to CEP (2004b). The RMC generated the meteorology data used for the 36-km and 12-km emissions modeling runs. For documentation about these data, refer to Section 4 of this report. The bina ry meteorology input data files used in simulation Pre02d_36 are documented in Table A-3.



### 5.3.5 Other emissions input data

Table A-2 lists all of the other nonmeteorol ogy ancillary input data used in simulation Pre02d_36. For the most part, these additional suppor t files did not change from their original forms in the SMOKE version 2.0 distribution. We made minor modificatio ns to these supportingFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

122 emissions input files as the preliminary 2002 em issions modeling progressed, such as adding SCC descriptions for new sources in the invent ory and adding descrip tions of the spatial surrogates used for the three countries in the modeling domain.



### 5.4 Description of FY 2004 Emi ssions Modeling Simulations

As discussed earlier, emissions modeling performed by the RMC in project year 2004 focused primarily on developing the WRAP 2002 base case emissions simulation. From March 2004 to February 2005, we completed four preliminar y 2002 (Pre02) emissions simulations on the RPO Unified 36-km domain (Figure 5-3): Pre02a_36, Pre02b_36, Pre02c_36, a nd Pre02d_36. We also finished one full simulation on the WRAP 12-km domain (Figure 5-4), Pre02d_12; two fire sensitivity simulations on the 36-km domain, Pr e02e_36 and Pre02f_36; and several test simulations for assessing the RMC’s capabilities for pe rforming plume-in-grid modeling (Pre02_PinG), emissions reduction sensitivities (Pre02c_36s 01), and nested modeling (Pre02c_12).

Grid Specification Value

Columns 148 Rows 112 Layers 19 X

-origin -2,736,000 m Y

-origin -2,088,000 m X

-center -97 degrees Y

-center 40 degrees X

-cell 36,000 m Y

-cell 36,000 m Vertical Top 10,000 m Vertical Layers ( σ ) 1.0, 0.995, 0.99, 0.985, 0.98, 0.97, 0.96, 0.95, 0.94, 0.92, 0.9, 0.88, 0.86, 0.82, 0.77, 0.7, 0.6, 0.45, 0.25, 0.0

Figure 5-3. RPO Unified Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

123 Grid Specification Value

Columns 207 Rows 186 Layers 19 X

-origin -2,376,000 m Y

-origin -936,000 m X

-center -97 degrees Y

-center 40 degrees X

-cell 12,000 m Y

-cell 12,000 m Vertical Top 10,000 m Vertical Layers ( σ ) 1.0, 0.995, 0.99, 0.985, 0.98, 0.97, 0.96, 0.95, 0.94, 0.92, 0.9, 0.88, 0.86, 0.82, 0.77, 0.7, 0.6, 0.45, 0.25, 0.0
Figure 5-4. WRAP nested 12-km modeling domain.

We used these Pre02 simulations to test the SM OKE scripts, quality assure the preliminary 2002 emissions inventories generated by the WR AP Air Quality Modeling Forum inventory contractors, refine the definiti on of the emissions sectors, and provide preliminary results for conducting emissions sensitivity simulations with CMAQ. Table 5-1 in Section 5.1 and Table 5-2 in the introductory paragr aphs of Section 5.2 summarize key information on all of the preliminary emissions simulations covered in this section.



### 5.4.1 Emissions simulation Pre02a_36

The RMC initiated the 2004 emissions modeli ng tasks by completing preliminary 2002 simulation case A (Pre02a_36). A six-mo nth simulation of the winter (December, January, February) and summer (June, July, August) months of 2002, Pre02a_36 carried over from the 2003 WRAP RMC work plan (Tonnesen et al., 2004) and servedto resolve any major problems with the emissions modeling system and with the pr eliminary 2002 emissions and meteorology datasets. It also acted as a test bed for the WRAP emissi ons modeling QA protocol (Adelman, 2004). Table 5-2 lists the emissions source categor ies included in si mulation Pre02a_36.
With the completion of simulation Pre02a_36, we established a version c ontrol system for emissions datasets, modeling inputs, SMOKE scripts and executables, and important pieces of documentation for the 2002 emissions modeling. Details about the emissions inventories used in simulation Pre02a_36 are included in the 2003 em issions modeling final report (Adelman and Omary, 2004). The quality assurance we b site for simulation Pre02a_36 is http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/Pre02a_36.shtml . After successfully evaluating the emissionsFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

124 modeling results for Pre02a_36, we moved on to th e first annual emissions simulation using the 2002 meteorology and emissions inventories for the RMC in 2004: preliminary 2002 simulation case B (Pre02b_36).



### 5.4.2 Emissions simulation Pre02b_36
Compared with Pre02a_36, simulation Pre02b_36 in tegrated a few minor changes to the input data as well as revisions to the emissions modeling QA protocol. We modified the SMOKE scripts following the Pre02a_36 simulation in order to modularize the system further, add errorchecking loops, and break up the input and output directories by source category. We also added more in-line documentation to the scripts and cleaned up extraneous lines of source code to make the SMOKE user interface at the RMC more tran sparent. In addition to correcting some inventory-related issues discovered during the QA of Pre02a_36, we added offshore-point-source emissions in the Gulf of Mexico and off the co ast of California, and removed the WRAP agricultural fires from the simulation in order to have an emissions simulation with no fires in the WRAP region to use in fire emissions sensitiv ities. Table 5-2 lists the emissions source categories included in simulation Pre02b_36. On the ancillary input side of the modeling, we upgraded the spatial surrogates us ed in Pre02a_36 with new EPA spa tial surrogates for the U.S. and Canada. We continued to use the surrogates fr om Pre02a_36 to spatially allocate the Mexican emissions. Details about all of the changes made between simulations Pre02a_36 and Pre02b_36 are included in the emissions simulation Pre 02b_36 final report (Hol land and Adelman, 2004). The QA web site for simulation Pre02b_36 is http://pah.cert.ucr.e du/aqm/308/Pre02b_36.shtml

. During the final phase of the Pre02b_36 modeling, we received the 2002 WRAP fire inventories from the FEJF inventory contractor. The next major update to the RMC emissions inventory included the 2002 fires in simulation Pre02b_36, wh ich resulted in the creation of the next preliminary 2002 annual simulation: Pre02c_36.



### 5.4.3 Emissions simulation Pre02c_36
After receiving the 2002 WRAP fire inventories from the FEJF inventory contractor in April 2004, we preprocessed the files and modeled th em through SMOKE for inclusion in emissions simulation Pre02c_36. This simulation differed from Pre02b_36 only in the addition of the 2002 prescribed fire and wildfire a nd 2018 agricultural fire (version 07/31/02) inve ntories. Table 5-2 lists the emissions source categories included in simulation Pre02c_36. Details about all of the changes made between simulations Pre02b_36 and Pre02c_36 are included in the emissions simulation Pre02c_36 final report (Adelman and Holland, 2004). The QA web site for simulation Pre02c_36 is http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/Pre02c_36.shtml

. Before conducting the next annual preliminar y simulation in the series (Pre02d_36), we completed several other, short-term simulations based on simulation Pre0 2c_36: (1) a simulation for testing nested grid modeling, (2) a simulation for testing PinG treatmen t of point sources, and (3) an emissions sensitivity st udy targeting a specific source cat egory (nonroad mobile diesel engines). These are discussed in Sections 5.4.4 through 5.4.6.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

125 

### 5.4.4 Emissions simulation Pre02c_12
We began work on the emissions for the WRAP nested 12-km modeli ng domain (Figure 5-4 above) in July 2004. UNC-CEP prepared spa tial surrogates using the EPA unified 12-km surrogates (EPA99) for the U.S. and Canada (U.S. EPA, 2004) and ESRI/CIESIN Shapefiles for Mexico (ESRI, 2002; CIESIN, 2004). To facilitate th e cross-referencing of the spatial surrogate codes to specific SCCs, we mapped the ESRI/CIE SIN codes to the EPA99 codes being used for the U.S. and Canada, as explained in Section 5.3.2 (see Table 5-18 above). With the WRAP 12- km meteorology data not available until late 2004, we modeled only those source categories that did not require meteorology information to deri ve emissions estimates (area, nonroad mobile, onroad mobile for the WRAP states, and road dust). Once we completed the processing and QA of the non-meteorology-dependent emissions sector s, we archived the SMOKE scripts and executables in the RMC version control system and deleted the output files to conserve disk resources. We never used the results from emissions simulation Pre02c_12 for air quality modeling; we developed this simulation to test the 12-km spatial surrogates and prepare the scripts for the annual 12-km simulation. When the 12-km meteorology data became available, we modeled the entire emissi ons simulation, including non mete orology-dependent data, using the best available inventories at that time. A description of the full annual preliminary 2002 12- km simulation (Pre02d_12) is described below in Section 5.4.10. The QA web site for the Pre02c_12 12-km-resolution emissions modeling is http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/qa_pre02b12.shtml

.


### 5.4.5 Emissions simulation Pre02c_PinG
A parallel activity to the Pre02c_36 12-km-reso lution emissions modeling was the creation of a one-month plume-in-grid (PinG) emissions simu lation for testing SMOKE emissions with the CMAQ Plume Dynamics Model (PDM). We used SMOKE to select the top 100 NO x and top 100 SO 2 stationary point sources in the WRAP st ates from emissions simulation Pre02c to receive the PinG treatment. Due to a shortcom ing in the way SMOKE selects sources for the PinG treatment, we had to split the stationary-point-source inventories into two components: the WRAP states and the non-WRAP portion of the domain. Afte r dividing the inventory, we applied the PinG selection criteria to the WRAP inventory and prep ared CMAQ-ready PinG emissions. SMOKE selected 144 unique sources to receive the PinG treatment in the WRAP region. The reason SMOKE selected 144 sources and not 200 (top 100 NO x and top 100 SO 2 ) was that many of these sources are redundant (i.e ., the same source exists in both lists). The annual PinG emissions simulation was never completed as the status of the CMAQ PinG test simulation. We were waiting on the results of this test simulation before proceeding with the rest of the modeling.



### 5.4.6 Emissions simulation Pre02c_36s01
In September 2004 we completed a two-and-a-half -month emissions sensitivity with simulation Pre02c that targeted nonroad mobile diesel e ngines in three WRAP states. Working with the WRAP Economic Analysis Forum, we develope d a preliminary set of control factors for simulating the effects of a diesel retrofit emi ssion control program on agricultural, mining, and construction nonroad mobile sources in Arizona, North Dakota, and Montana. If the EconomicFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

126 Analysis Forum determines that air quality modeling results using Pre02c_36s01 emissions lend compelling evidence to the effectiveness of these types of controls, then we would revisit the simulation, targeting with greater precision the sources and pollutants that the actual controls would affect. Additional information on simulation Pre02c_36s01 is provided in Section 5.8.



### 5.4.7 Emissions simulation Pre02d_36
Simulation Pre02d_36 was the final prelimin ary annual 36-km 2002 simulation of the 2004 project year. To prepare for it, we made severa l improvements to the Pre02c emissions, such as substituting new inventories for the non-WRAP states and Cana da, and updating the temporal and chemical allocation profiles used in SMOKE. Details about all of th e changes made between simulations Pre02c_36 and Pre02d_36 ar e given in this subsection.
As we were completing emissions simulation Pr e02c_36, we also began collecting updated 2002 inventory data to include in simulation Pre 02d_36. We ultimately compiled new inventory data for each sector for every region of the 36-km modeling domain, except for Mexico, to create Pre02d_36. In addition to integrating newly ava ilable inventory data in to the WRAP emissions modeling, we also corrected a few errors th at we discovered during the modeling and QA of simulation Pre02c_36. The data collection e ffort for Pre02d_36 began in May 2004 with the release of the VISTAS 2002 emissions invent ory by Alpine Geophysics, and finished in November 2004 with the release of a preliminary 2000 national Cana dian inventory by the U.S. EPA. The only source categories that did not need reprocessing for simulation Pre02d_36 were the offshore point sources and the agricultural fire emissions. Due to inventory updates, refinements, or additions, the RMC reprocesse d every other source ca tegory beginning in November 2004 and finishing the modeling and QA of simulation Pre02c_36 in January 2005.
The emissions modeling tasks we performed fo r the Pre02d_36 simulation consisted of the following components:

• Receive and preprocess the 2002 VISTAS and preliminary 2002 U.S. NEI inventories from Alpine Geophysics.

o Split the area-source inventories by emissi ons source sector and spatial region to conform with the WRAP RMC emissions inventory configuration (Section 5.2). We split these inventories into the followi ng components: stationary area, fugitive dust, and road dust for the VISTAS, CENR AP, and “other U.S.” regions of the modeling domain.

o Remove the fugitive dust sources that are contained in the dust inventory prepared by Alpine (which uses county-based transp ort fractions) from the U.S. area-source inventories. Table 5-5 lists the dust sources that we removed from these inventories.

o Remove the agricultural and natural NH 3 emissions sources from the U.S .areasource inventories that are represented in the WRAP process-based NH 3 emissions model. Table B-1 lists the NH 3 emissions sources that we removed from these inventories.

• Receive and preprocess the revised 2002 w ildfire and prescribed fire emissions inventories from Air Sciences Inc. that distinguish between na tural and anthropogenicFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

127 fires. This involved splitting the annual natu ral prescribed fire inventory into monthly files.

• Integrate the 2018 base smoke manageme nt agricultural burning area-source inventory received in July 2002 during the §309 modeling.

• Integrate the gridded output from the WRAP windblown dust model.

• Integrate the gridded out put from the ENVIRON NH 3 emissions model.

• Ensure correct temporal and spatia l coverage of the inventories.

• Run SMOKE for the annual simulation.

• Perform QA on the annual period results.

• Deliver the emissions fo r use in CMAQ modeling. More information on these components of the Pr e02d_36 simulation is given in various sections of this report. In Sections 5.2 and 5.3, resp ectively, we described the SMOKE inventory files and SMOKE ancillary files used. In Sections 5.5 and 5.6, we provi de summaries and descriptions that illustrate the application of the WRAP QA pr otocol to the emissions modeling for this task; the documentation and QA web site for simulation Pre02d_36 are accessible at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/Pre02d_36.shtml . Section 5.7 discusses the differences between simulation Pre02d_36 and the two previously co mpleted annual simulations, Pre02b_36 and Pre02c_36. In Section 5.9 we describe the proble ms and issues that aros e during the modeling of this simulation, and make recommendations abou t what can be done in the next round of 2002 emissions modeling to improve the data collection, modeling, and QA efforts. Appendix A summarizes the input and output data (Tables A-1 through A-3) and the SMOKE configuration options (Table A-4) for simulation Pre02d_36. A ppendix C contains emissi ons density maps for the significant pollutants from all the major emissions source categor ies modeled in this simulation. Appendix D contains bar charts th at qualitatively compar e simulations Pre02c_36 and Pre02d_36, illustrating how the inventory updates that occurred between these two simulations affect the emissions totals in each region of the modeling domain.



### 5.4.8 Emissions simulation Pre02e_36
The RMC designed the annual emissions simulati on Pre02e_36 to study th e effects of natural versus anthropogenic fire emissions. With the delivery of the revised 2002 fire inventories by Air Sciences in September 2004, we designed this simulation to evaluate the effects of the new natural prescribed and wildfire inventories on the modeling. We created simulation Pre02e_36 by adding the natural prescribed and wildfire inventories to simulation Pre02b_36, the base simulation that contained no fires at all; a comparison between Pre02b_36 and Pre02e_36 therefore illustrates how the natural fire inve ntories affect the mode ling. As simulation Pre02b_36 was extensively quality assured and documented in Holland and Adelman (2004) and we changed it to create Pre02e_36 on ly by adding the revised fire i nventories, we did not have to perform much additional QA on si mulation Pre02e_36. The fire inventories that distinguish Pre02e_36 from Pre02b_36 are documented and quali ty assured in Section 5.2.10. Section 5.7 discusses the differences between simulati on Pre02e_36 and the other annual simulationsFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

128 completed in 2004. Section 5.8 also summarizes th e emissions sensitivities completed during this calendar year, including simula tions Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36.



### 5.4.9 Emissions simulation Pre02f_36
We designed the annual emissions simulation Pr e02f_36 to study the effects of the revised 2002 fire emissions inventories and to study the effects of natural fi re emissions versus all fire emissions

. When we received the revised 2002 fire i nventories in September 2004, we designed this simulation for comparison with simulati ons Pre02b_36, Pre02c_36, and Pre02e_36. We created simulation Pre02f_36 by adding the base sm oke management agricultural fires, natural and anthropogenic prescribed fires, and revised wildfire inventories to simulation Pre02b_36, the base simulation that contained no fires at a ll. A comparison between Pre02b_36 and Pre02f_36 therefore illustrates how adding all of the 2002 fi re inventories affects the air quality modeling results. Comparing simulations Pre02c_36 and Pre02f_36 shows the effects of the old versus new fire inventories. Finally, comparing si mulations Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36 illustrates the effects of natural fire inventories only versus all fire inventories. As simulation Pre02b_36 was extensively quality assured and documented in Holland and Adelman (2004) and we changed it to create Pre02f_36 only by adding the above revi sed fire inventories, we did not have to perform much additional QA on si mulation Pre02f_36. The fire inventories that distinguish Pre02f_36 from Pre02b_36 are documented and quality assured in Section 5.2.10 . Section 5.7 discusses the differences between simulati on Pre02f_36 and the other annual simulations completed in 2004. Section 5.8 also summarizes th e emissions sensitivities completed during this calendar year, including simula tions Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36.



### 5.4.10 Emissions simulation Pre02d_12
The RMC completed the entire 12-km annual mete orology data set in January 2005, allowing us to begin the modeling and QA of all the 12-km emissions. We initiated the 12-km emissions modeling with simulation Pre02c_12 in July 2004, debugging the SMOKE scripts and checking the initial results of the fine-grid simulation (see Section 5.4.4). We completed the full 12-km emissions simulation, Pre02d_12, by the end of Fe bruary 2005. To create spatial surrogates for this simulation, we used the EPA 65-category “new” 12-km surrogates (U.S. EPA, 2004e) (see Section 5.3.2). We applied the same ESRI/C IESIN Shapefiles that we used for the Pre02d_36 simulation, simply applying them to the fine r-scale 12-km grid. The inventory QA that we applied to simulation Pre02d_36 also applied to the 12-km nested grid; basic QA of the 12-km emissions involved confirming that we had allocated the data to the correct model grid cells. The same input and output data and SMOKE conf iguration options for simulation Pre02d_36 summarized in Appendix A also ap plied to simulation Pre02d_12. We prepared the 12km Pre02d emissions for use in a nested simulation that is based off the 36km Pr e02d simulation. Appendix C contains emissions density maps by county for th e significant pollutants from all of the major emissions source categories modeled in Simulation Pre02d_12. These maps are not based on a model grid resolution but merely show county level emissions normalized by the county land area. Appendix D contains bar charts compari ng the inventories from simulations Pre02c and Pre02d, illustrating the effect s of the inventory updates th at occurred between these two simulations. Similar to the density maps, these re sults are model grid-independent as they are based on state totals only and are applicable to all model grid resolutions.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

129 

### 5.5 RMC Emissions Modeling Deli verables and QA/QC Products
Quality assurance in the context of emissions mode ling refers to ensuring that the results of the simulations are of the highest quality possible with respect to the data. Quality control, on the other hand, refers to ensuring that the model simulations completed successfully and without errors. QA focuses on the quality of the data; QC focuses on the process of modeling, archiving, and documenting the data. Some of RMC products , like the emissions spatial plots and the simulation web sites, are used for both QA and QC. Other products, such as the SMOKE settings document are used for QC only. This section de scribes both the QA and QC products that the RMC used during this project year to ensure high quality mode l results and that the modeling software performed as we expected.

Table 5-19 lists the RMC web site locations and th e Bugzilla ticket numbers associated with all of the emissions simulations processed from March 2004 through February 2005 (see Section 5.4). Bugzilla is an on-line bug tracking system th at we use as an alternative to conventional email for tracking and archiving correspondence among the emissions modeling team members. To access the database containi ng the Bugzilla tickets, visit http://bugz.unc.edu and use the “Enter a bug #” box to search fo r the ticket numbers listed in Ta ble 5-19. The web sites listed in that table contain links to documentation and QA /QC graphics for each of the simulations. Those reports and QA/QC graphics, pl us the CMAQ-ready emissions they document, constitute the deliverables for Task 3 in the WRAP RMC 2004 work plan. Section 5.6 summarizes the deliverables and QA/QC products generated by the RMC duri ng this reporting period.

Table 5-19. Web sites and Bugzilla ti cket numbers for preliminary 2002 emissions simulations.

Simulation ID Web Site for Links to Documentation and QA Graphics Bugzilla Ticket #
Pre02a_36 http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ Pre02a_36.shtml 805, 858, 859

Pre02b_36 http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ Pre02b_36.shtml 905, 924, 925, 929, 930, 933, 939, 941-944, 949, 952-958, 960, 967, 968, 973-977, 979, 981, 982, 985, 989, 991, 994 Pre02c_36 http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ Pre02c_36.shtml 992, 999, 1007, 1010

Pre02b_12 http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ Pre02b_12.shtml 1067

Pre02c_PinG None 1068 Pre02c_36s01 None 1356 Pre02d_36 http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ Pre02d_36.shtml 1104, 1146, 1179, 1184, 1185, 1259, 1260, 1340, 1364, 1411, 1412, 1431, 1454, 1482Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

130 Simulation ID Web Site for Links to Documentation and QA Graphics Bugzilla Ticket #
Pre02e_36 None None Pre02f_36 None None Pre02d_12 http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ Pre02d_12.shtml 1512

The following subsections summarizes the deliv erables and QA products we generated during project year 2004. It also in cludes a summary of the SMOKE time and disk requirements for annual simulations on the RMC compute servers (using simulation Pre02c_36 as an example), and documents the location of the data on the servers and the version control system we used.
We generated all of the SMOKE modeling result s for these simulations on the RMC computing cluster. The input files, SMOKE executables, SM OKE scripts, and model output are all available through the RMC. We documented simulations Pre 02a through Pre02c with comprehensive final reports (Adelman and Omary, 2004; Holland an d Adelman, 2004; Adelman and Holland, 2004); these include descriptions of the work performed to complete the simulations, comparisons to the previous simulation, and QA products documenti ng the input files and model configurations used for each simulation. We have documented th e final preliminary 2002 simulation, Pre02d, in this report. The web sites documenting the QA pr ocedures performed on these simulations are listed in Table 5-19 above.



### 5.5.1 SMOKE time requirements and disk use
Managing the disk use and time requirements of the SMOKE simulations is as large a component of the emissions quality control as is the assurance of quality results. With large-spatialscale, annual simulations like those described ab ove, the length of time required for completing the simulations and the amount of disk space requir ed to store all of the input, intermediate, and final output files are both massive. Table 5-20 su mmarizes the run times and disk use requirements for each emissions component of simulatio n Pre02c_36. The statistics in Table 5-20 are approximations. The disk use estimates account fo r the intermediate and output files only; the actual disk requirements for the 36- km Pre02c simulation are slight ly larger than those shown. The totals show that simulati on Pre02c_36 required over 1.6 terabyt es of disk storage and took almost 400 total hours to complete. Figures 5- 5 and 5-6 are graphical summaries of the time requirements and disk use by source categor y and SMOKE program. Only the SMOKE programs that required the greatest amount of disk sp ace and took the longest to run are displayed in these figures.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

131 Table 5-20. SMOKE time and disk use st atistics for simulation Pre02c_36 km.

Source Category Disk Use (MB) Disk Use (%) Run Time (Hours) Run Time (%) Stationary area 25,540 1.6 8.54 2.1 Road dust 3,776 0.2 1.33 0.3 Nonroad mobile 20,675 1.3 5.12 1.3 On-road mobile 29,150 1.8 80.55 20.1 Point 431,028 26.4 82.75 20.7 Offshore 181,743 11.1 9.07 2.3 Ag fire 219,489 13.4 55.03 13.8 Rx fire 243,713 14.9 71.48 17.9 Wildfire 251,263 15.4 20.97 5.2 Biogenic 29,503 1.8 4.08 1.0 Merge 199,655 12.2 60.83 15.2 Total 1,635,535 100.0 399.75 100.0

A

R RD NR PT MB MB-VMT OS BG AGF RXF WF M

e rge SMKINVEN EMISFAC

TMPBEIS3

TEMPORAL

LAYPOINT

SMKMERGE

MRGGRID 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500Minutes

Figure 5-5. Simulation Pre02c_36 timing statistics by source and SMOKE program for the

programs that took th e longest to run. (AR: stationary area, RD: road dust, NR: nonroad mobile, PT: point, MB: WRAP on-road mobile, MB-VMT: non-WRAP on-road mobile, OS: offshore point, BG: biogenic, AGF: agricultural fires, RXF: prescribed fires, WF: wildfires)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

132 AR RD NR P T MB MB- V

MT OS BG AGF RXF WF Merge SMKINVEN NORMBEIS3

TEMPORAL

LAYPOINT

SMKMERGE

MRGGRID 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000Megabytes

Figure 5-6. Simulation Pre 02c_36 disk usage by source and SMOKE program for the programs that required the greate st amount of disk space. ( AR: stationary area, RD: road dust, NR: nonroad mobile, PT: point, MB: WRAP on-road mobile, MB-VMT: non-WRAP on-road mobile, OS: offshore point, BG: biogenic , AGF: agricultural fires, RXF: prescribed fires, WF: wildfires)



### 5.5.2 RMC version control
To facilitate reproducibil ity of the RMC emissions modeling results and to provide enhanced QC of the modeling, we first implemented the WR AP emissions modeling QA protocol (Adelman, 2004) during simulation Pre02a_36. Th e protocol defines strict proc edures for data and simulation management, administering the SMOKE modeling system a nd input/output data, and documenting all modeling procedures. As specified in the QA protocol, we used the Concurrent Versions System (CVS) to provide version control for the simulations completed in 2004. Version control is a system for archiving the scripts, configuration files, and input files so that a simulation can be reproduced in the future. CVS uses a sy stem of revision tags, or text identifiers, to label both ASCII and binary files. As the RMC adds new files or updates existing files to the modeling system, a CVS command is invoked to tag the files and associate them with the applicable simulation. As the simulation is completed and the QA finalized, a final CVS tag is added to the files that can be used to recall all of the script s, executables, and inputs that generated the emissions simulation. Table 5-21 lists the CVS re vision tags used for version control during the preliminary 2002 modeling.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

133 Table 5-21. CVS revision tags for preliminary 2002 modeling.

Simulation ID CVS Revision Tag Pre02a_36 Pre02a_36_Final Pre02b_36 Pre02b_36_Final Pre02c_36 Pre02c_36_Final Pre02b_12 Pre02c_12_Final Pre02c_PinG Pre02c_36_Ping_Final Pre02c_36s01 Pre02c_36s01_Final Pre02d_36 Pre02d_36_Final Pre02e_36 Pre02e_36_Final* Pre02f_36 Pre02f_36_Final* Pre02d_12 Pre02d_12_Final *Assigns directory only.
To invoke the CVS revision tags on the RMC compute servers, the CVSROOT environment variable must be set to poin t to the location of the prelim inary 2002 modeling archives. The CVSROOT location on the RMC machines is /h ome/aqm3/edss2/archi ve. Once CVSROOT is defined, the installation for any of the simulations listed in Table 5-21, in cluding the run scripts, executables, and all input files, can be reca lled from the archive by issuing the command “cvs checkout –r ‘CVS Revision Tag’”. For example, to check out the files needed to reproduce the Pre02b_36 simulation, you would invoke the co mmand “cvs checkout –r Pre02b_36_Final” from the command line anywhere on the RMC servers.



### 5.5.3 Quality assurance products

In addition to version control, the RMC emission s modeling QA protocol also defines a series of QA products that must be created to document ev ery simulation that produces emissions input for CMAQ. Before delivering the results of an emissions simulation to the RMC air quality modeling team, the RMC emissions modelers gene rate and scrutinize tabu lar and graphical summaries that summarize the simulation and provide insight into its quality. The emissions QA protocol contains a checklist of QA procedures that must be completed before the simulation results are ready to be given to the air quality modelers. The checklist provides guidance for ensuring that each step of the SMOKE m odeling process is checked and documented. The final reports for simulations Pre02a through Pre02c contain co mpleted QA checklists documenting that each simulation was thoroughly review ed. The QA checklist for simula tion Pre02d is contained in Appendix E. For the many QA procedures in the checklist that do not produce tangible products such as emissions plots or tabulated information, the checklist itself is the documentation substantiating completion of th e QA procedures. Other, more tangible QA products that we generate include spatial plot s of the daily maximum emissi ons for each source sector and pollutant, daily and annual time-series plots of the emissions, linear regressions comparing annual inventory summaries against reports from each SMOKE process (e.g., inventory import, speciation, spatial allocation), and daily vert ical emissions profiles of the point-source simulations. Refer to the links in Table 5-19 to see these QA products for each preliminary 2002 simulation.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

134 

### 5.6 WRAP Preliminary 2002 Emissions Progress
As noted in Section 5.3, the preliminary 2002 emissions modeling performed by the RMC in project year 2004 was an iterative process wher eby each simulation was built from the previous one. We used the six-month simulation Pre02a to test the emissions QA protocol, the SMOKE run scripts, and the preliminary 2002 emissions inventories and meteorology. After making adjustments to both the modeling protocol and the input data, we moved on to the first annual simulation of the year, Pre02b. With the delivery of the 2002 WRAP fire inventories, we then created simulation Pre02c by adding these ne w data on top of simulation Pre02b. Adding updated 2002 fire data to the emissions from simulation Pre02b_36 resulted in simulations Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36. To create simula tions Pre02d_36 and Pre02d_12, we combined entirely new inventories for the non-WRAP stat es, revised Canadian i nventory data, gridded emissions data from the WRAP win dblown dust model and the ENVIRON NH 3 emissions model, and the revised 2002 fire inventories. Whil e the final reports on the first three simulations mentioned above detail the modeling and QA performed for each, they do not include comparisons between the simulations to demons trate how the preliminary 2002 base emissions simulation progressed through pr oject year 2004. This secti on contains comparisons of simulations Pre02b, Pre02c, and Pre02d to illust rate how the inventory changes that we made affected the overall distributi on of emissions among the major source categories and across the various regions of the modeling domain. For de tails about the exact i nventory changes that occurred between these three simu lations, refer to Section 5.4.
As we used Pre02a simply as a short-time-pe riod test for the annual simulation Pre02b, the changes to the inventory inputs between these tw o simulations were minor, so a comparison between the inventories used fo r these two cases is unnecessary . The changes to the Pre02b inventory that resulted in simulation Pre02c included the addition of 2002 wildfire and prescribed fire inventories and the 2018 base smoke management ag ricultural fire inventory. The Pre02d inventory represented seve ral updates to all regions of th e modeling domain. Table 5-22 summarizes the updates by source category that occurred betw een the Pre02c and Pre02d inventories.

Table 5-22. Summary of emissions updates between the Pre02c and Pre02d inventories. Source Category Pre02d Update Stationary Area • Upgraded the NEI96 grown to 2002 with the preliminary NEI2002 for the nonWRAP states

• Removed the NH 3 SCCs represented by the ENVIRON NH 3 model from all U.S. inventories

• Removed the fugitive dust SCCs represented from all U.S. inventories

• Added the VISTAS and CENRAP area-source fire inventories; removed these fire sources from the non-WRAP stationary-area-source inventoryFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

135

Source Category Pre02d Update
Nonroad Mobile • Upgraded the NEI96 grown to 2002 with the preliminary NEI2002 for the nonWRAP states

• Removed the refueling SCCs represented by MOBILE6 from the WRAP inventory

• Split the shipping SCC into in-port a nd ocean-going sources; allocated the ocean-going sources to marine grid cells within 25 miles of the coast On-road Mobile • Upgraded NEI99 to NEI2002 for non-WRAP states Stationary Point • Replaced CENRAP records in the WRAP inventory with NEI2002 records

• Added the VISTAS hourly CEM inventory and temporal profiles for modeling sources in the VISTAS region Fugitive Dust • Added an explicit fugitive dust category that uses an inventory with countybased transport fractions
Road Dust • No change Windblown Dust • Added gridded emissions from the WRAP windblown dust model for U.S.

sources Agricultural and Natural NH 3 • Added gridded emissions from the ENVIRON NH 3 model for U.S. sources; these replaced emissions for SCCs in the stationary area inventory
Prescribed Fire • Replaced the WRAP 2002 prescribed fire inventory with revised inventories that differentiate between natu ral and anthropogenic events Agricultural Fire • No change Wildfire • Upgraded to the revised 2002 inventory for the WRAP states

• Added the 2002 VISTAS fire inventory Offshore Point • No change Offshore Mobile • Add an explicit offshore-mobile-source category derived from nonroad mobile shipping SCCs Biogenic • Upgraded the white spruce and fir emi ssions factors based on revised U.S. EPA data Canada • Upgraded all of the nonpoint inventory to the preliminary 2000 National Canadian Inventory Mexico • No change

Tables 5-23 and 5-24 are cursory summaries of the annual total emissions by pollutant between the Pre02b, Pre02c, and Pre02d inventories for the entire U.S. and the WRAP states, respectively, for all modeled source categories comb ined. Figures 5-7 and 5-8 illustrate the U.S. domainwide trends indicated in these tables: (1) the total non-NH 3 and non-PM 10 emissions slightly increased between the Pre02b and Pre0 2c inventories and then decreased with the Pre02d inventory; and (2) the total NH 3 and PM 10 emissions increased with each new inventory. Tables 5-25 through 5-27 expand upon Table 5-23 by showing the total annual U.S. emissionsFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

136 for the Pre02b, Pre02c, and Pre 02d inventory pollutants by source category. Tables 5-28 through 5-30 expand upon Table 5-24 in the same way fo r the total annual WRAP-region emissions.
Figures 5-9 through 5-16 illustrate the differences among the Pre02b, Pre02c, and Pre02d inventories. Figures 5-9 thr ough 5-11 show the total emissi ons differences among the three inventories in each of the major regions of the 36-km modeling domain. These figures illustrate the interregional differences in magnitude of the total emissions among the five RPOs, Canada, and Mexico. A comparison between Figures 5-9 and 5-10 demons trates that only the WRAP emissions changed between these two simulations, the result of adding fire emissions in the WRAP region. Comparing Figures 5-10 and 5-11 shows the overal l reduction in emissions for most pollutants in the U.S. and Canada. This comparison also illustrates the effect of the windblown dust emissions in the increase in PM 10 emissions between the Pre02c and Pre02d inventories. Figures 5-12 through 5-14 are pie chart summaries of the total U.S. emissions for the Pre02b, Pre02c, and Pre02d inventories. Figures 5-15 and 5-16 are pie chart summaries of the total WRAP-domain emissions for the Pre02c an d Pre02d inventories. These emissions pie charts show how the contributi on of each of the major emissi ons components to the total emissions changed among the variou s inventories. The effects of a dding the first set of 2002 fire emissions are most evident in comparing the CO and PM pie charts in Figures 5-12 and 5-13. A comparison of Figures 5-13 and 5- 14 shows the effects of the NH 3 model’s emissions in the NH 3 pie chart, and the effects of adding the windblow n dust and other explicit dust categories in the three PM pie charts. Figures 5-15 and 5-16 illustra te the source category contributions to the total emissions for the WRAP states only for the Pr e02c and Pre02d inventories. These figures magnify the effects of the WRAP fire invent ories relative to the total U.S. pie charts.
Figures 5-17 through 5-24 expand on the WRAP-reg ion pie charts in Figure 5-16 by showing the contribution of each of the emissions source cate gories to the total annual emissions in each of the WRAP states in simulation Pre02d for the major inventory pollutants (CO, VOC, NO x , SO 2 , NH 3 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 , and coarse particulate ma tter [PMc]). For the pollutants that are related to land area or population—such as VOC emissions, which are dominated by the biogenic sources, and NO x emissions, which are dominated by the m obile- and area-source sectors—California tends to be the largest emissions source state in the WRAP region. Oregon is the largest emitter of CO, PM 10 , and PM 2.5 in the WRAP region, due to an active wildfire year in 2002. North Dakota is the largest SO 2 emitter in the WRAP states because of large contributions from the area- and point-source sectors. California, Montana, and South Dakota are the largest emitters of NH 3 in the WRAP region, attributable to the high amount of agricultural act ivity in these states captured in the new agricultural and natural NH 3 inventory. Although Oregon was the largest emitter of PM 10 and PM 2.5 in the WRAP region during 2002, when the wildfire signal from PM 2.5 is removed by looking at PMc, Oregon drops to the fifth-largest emitter of PMc behind California, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Colorado. Outside of Oregon, the PMc emissions levels are affected primarily by the fugitive dust and road dust sectors.
The inventory comparisons presented here al so apply to the 12-km (Pre02c_12 and Pre02d_12), PinG (Pre02c_PinG), and fire sensitivity (P re02e_36 and Pre02f_36) simulations. All of the inventories used in the preliminary 2002 emissions modeling are included in these analyses.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

137 Table 5-23. Comparison among the three Pre02 simulations of annual

U.S. pollutant totals in tons/yea r for all source ca tegories combined.

Pollutant Pre02b Pre02c Pre02d

CO 115,323,289 128,369,633 69,281,420
NO x 26,155,742 26,444,753 16,546,150 VOC 74,773,640 75,399,946 68,584,807
NH 3 5,094,587 5,156,807 5,487,759
SO 2 19,512,966 19,590,788 15,250,166
PM 10 12,271,953 13,542,065 17,099,895
PM 2.5 4,206,658 5,298,888 5,225,398 PMc 8,065,560 8,243,442 6,645,623

Table 5-24. Comparison among the three Pre02 simulations of annual WRAP-region pollutant totals in tons/y ear for all source categories combined*

Pollutant Pre02b Pre02c Pre02d

CO 21,468,363 34,514,706 34,488,024
NO x 4,248,803 4,537,814 4,532,715 VOC 24,134,792 24,761,099 24,686,023
NH 3 1,038,013 1,100,233 1,823,284
SO 2 1,247,963 1,325,785 1,324,388
PM 10 2,903,972 4,174,085 4,922,535
PM 2.5 942,716 2,034,946 1,924,883 PMc 1,961,521 2,139,403 1,688,846 *Does not include offshore point sources.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

138 0.00E+00 2.00E+07 4.00E+07 6.00E+07 8.00E+07 1.00E+08 1.20E+08 1.40E+08

CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5 PMC(tons/yr) Pre02b Pre02c Pre02d

Figure 5-7. U.S. total emissions comparison of three annual Pre02 simulations.

0.00E+00 5.00E+06 1.00E+07 1.50E+07 2.00E+07 2.50E+07 3.00E+07 3.50E+07 4.00E+07

CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5 PMC(tons/yr) Pre02b Pre02c Pre02d

Figure 5-8. WRAP-region total emissions compar ison of three annual Pre02 simulations.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

139 Table 5-25. Pre02b U.S. pollutant totals by source category Category CO NO x VOC NH 3 SO 2 PM 10 PM 2.5 PMc Area 8788585 2133791 8743374 4547733 1328943 7381849 2351239 5030603 Biogenic 6335679 968676 54484314 0 0 0 0 0 On-road 69371953 8078587 5868161 251904 273748 225877 170672 55205 Nonroad 25336215 5320217 3166860 12032 942749 471442 423330 48382 Road Dust 0 0 0 0 0 2917582 507809 2409776 Point 5458565 9515094 2462456 282919 16967419 1275162 753570 521592 Offshore 32293 139377 48474 0 107 40 39 2 Total 115323289 26155742 74773640 5094587 19512966 12271953 4206658 8065560

Table 5-26. Pre02c U.S. pollutant totals by source category Category CO NO x VOC NH 3 SO 2 PM 10 PM 2.5 PMc Area 8788585 2133791 8743374 4547733 1328943 7381849 2351239 5030603 Biogenic 6335679 968676 54484314 0 0 0 0 0 On-road 69371953 8078587 5868161 251904 273748 225877 170672 55205 Nonroad 25336215 5320217 3166860 12032 942749 471442 423330 48382 Road Dust 0 0 0 0 0 2917582 507809 2409776 Point 5458565 9515094 2462456 282919 16967419 1275162 753570 521592 Rx Fire 753945 19826 37702 3523 5436 73922 64302 9620 Ag Fire 217083 10129 20353 4379 1353 22083 20954 1129 Wildfire 12075316 259056 568251 54318 71032 1174106 1006973 167133 Offshore 32293 139377 48474 0 107 40 39 2 Total 128369633 26444753 75399946 5156807 19590788 13542065 5298888 8243442

Table 5-27. Pre02d U.S. pollutant totals by source category Category CO NO x VOC NH 3 SO 2 PM 10 PM 2.5 PMc Area 8997365 1588240 8053704 155713 1228561 1434640 1280075 154557 Biogenic 6335679 968676 54484314 0 0 0 0 0 On-road 14077418 1565522 1205058 51452 39573 57953 45619 12334 Nonroad 22400629 4316894 2508503 6562 509894 410306 358358 51949 Road Dust 0 0 0 0 0 3011884 526178 2485710 Windblown Dust 0 0 0 0 0 5228817 0 0 Ammonia 0 0 0 5114196 0 0 0 0 Fugitive Dust 0 0 0 0 0 4243739 841450 3402280 Point 4418380 7683523 1666043 98185 13395672 1455641 1093396 362237 Anthro Rx Fire 363499 7799 17106 1636 2139 35344 30313 5032 Natural Rx Fire 363759 6935 13001 1212 1902 25343 22080 3263 Ag Fire 217083 10129 20353 4379 1353 22084 20955 1129 Wildfire 12075316 259056 568251 54318 71032 1174106 1006973 167133 Offshore 32293 139377 48474 107 40 39 2 0 Total 69281420 16546150 68584807 5487759 15250166 17099895 5225398 6645623Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

140 Table 5-28. Pre02b WRAP-region polluta nt totals by source category Category CO NO x VOC NH 3 SO 2 PM 10 PM 2.5 PMc Area 1448071 453881 1741918 961371 153465 2117539 640254 1477275 Biogenic 2662325 288738 20640180 0 0 0 0 0 On-road 12630468 1399267 1097751 45603 32312 53796 42621 11175 Nonroad 4059991 1101916 422651 4537 155124 75230 69735 5767 Road Dust 0 0 0 0 0 470112 82714 387403 Point 667508 1005001 232292 26501 907063 187296 107393 79901 Total 21468363 4248803 24134792 1038013 1247963 2903972 942716 1961521

Table 5-29. Pre02c WRAP-region pollu tant totals by source category Category CO NO x VOC NH 3 SO 2 PM 10 PM 2.5 PMc Area 1448071 453881 1741918 961371 153465 2117539 640254 1477275 Biogenic 2662325 288738 2064018 0 0 0 0 0 0 On-road 12630468 1399267 1097751 45603 32312 53796 42621 11175 Nonroad 4059991 1101916 422651 4537 155124 75230 69735 5767 Road Dust 0 0 0 0 0 470112 82714 387403 Point 667508 1005001 232292 26501 907063 187296 107393 79901 Rx Fire 753945 19826 37702 3523 5436 73922 64302 9620 Ag Fire 217083 10129 20353 4379 1353 22084 20955 1129 Wildfire 12075316 259056 568251 54318 71032 1174106 1006973 167133 Total 34514706 4537814 24761099 1100233 1325785 4174085 2034946 2139403

Table 5-30. Pre02d WRAP-region pollu tant totals by source category Category CO NO x VOC NH 3 SO 2 PM 10 PM 2.5 PMc Area 1448071 453881 1674437 12479 153465 320940 289328 31607 Biogenic 2662325 288738 2064018 0 0 0 0 0 0 On-road 12630468 1399267 1097751 45603 32312 53796 42621 11175 Nonroad 4059996 1101910 422651 4537 155123 85159 79089 6070 Road Dust 0 0 0 0 0 490176 87032 403144 Windblown Dust 0 0 0 0 0 1308787 287933 1020854 Ammonia 0 0 0 1672618 0 0 0 0 Fugitive Dust 0 0 0 0 0 1219504 239098 980394 Point 667508 1005001 232292 26501 907063 187296 107393 79901 Anthro Rx Fire 363499 7799 17106 1636 2139 35344 30313 5032 Natural Rx Fire 363759 6935 13001 1212 1902 25343 22080 3263 Ag Fire 217083 10129 20353 4379 1353 22084 20955 1129 Wildfire 12075316 259056 568251 54318 71032 1174106 1006973 167133 Total 34488024 4532715 24686023 1823284 1324388 4922535 2212816 2709700Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

141 W R

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Figure 5-9. Pre02b_36 total domain annual emissions summary.

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Figure 5-10. Pre02c_36 total doma in annual emissions summary.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

142 W R

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Figure 5-11. Pre02d_36 total domain annual emissions summary.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

143 Pie Chart Legend Stationary Area Biogenic On-Road Mobile Nonroad Mobile Road Dust Point Offshore

CO NO x

VOC SO 2 NH 3

PMc PM 10 PM 2.5 Figure 5-12. Pre02b total U.S. annual emissions pie charts.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

144 Pie Chart Legend Stationary Area Biogenic On-Road Mobile Nonroad Mobile Road Dust Point WRAP Rx Fire WRAP Ag Fire WRAP Wildfire Offshore CO NO x

VOC SO 2 NH 3

PMc PM 10 PM 2.5 Figure 5-13. Pre02c total U.S. annual emissions pie charts.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

145 Pie Chart Legend
Stationary Area NH 3 Model Biogenic On-Road Mobile Nonroad Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust Windblown Dust Point Offshore WRAP Nat Rx Fire WRAP Anthro Rx Fire WRAP Ag Fire WRAP Wildfire CO NO x

VOC SO 2 NH 3

PMc PM 10 PM 2.5 Figure 5-14. Pre02d total U.S. annual emissions pie charts.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

146 Pie Chart Legend Stationary Area Biogenic On-Road Mobile Nonroad Mobile Road Dust Point WRAP Rx Fire WRAP Ag Fire WRAP Wildfire Offshore CO NO x

VOC SO 2 NH 3

PMc PM 10 PM 2.5 Figure 5-15. Pre02c WRAP an nual emissions pie charts.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

147 Pie Chart Legend Stationary Area NH 3 Model Biogenic On-Road Mobile Nonroad Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust Windblown Dust Point Offshore WRAP Nat Rx Fire WRAP Anthro Rx Fire WRAP Ag Fire WRAP Wildfire CO NO x

VOC SO 2 NH 3

PMc PM 10 PM 2.5 Figure 5-16. Pre02d WRAP an nual emissions pie charts.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

148 Area Biogenic On-Road Nonroad Point Nat Rx Fire Anthro Rx Fire Ag Fire Wildfire 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 8000000 9000000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY(Tons/Yr)

Figure 5-17. Pre02d annual CO source contributions by WRAP state.

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000

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Figure 5-18. Pre02d annual NO x source contributions by WRAP state.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

149 Area Biogenic On-Road Nonroad Point Nat Rx Fire Anthro Rx Fire Ag Fire Wildfire NH 3 Model 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY(Tons/Yr)

Figure 5-19. Pre02d annual VOC source contributions by WRAP state.

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000

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Figure 5-20. Pre02d annual NH 3 source contributions by WRAP state.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

150 Area On-Road Nonroad Point Nat Rx Fire Anthro Rx Fire Ag Fire Wildfire Road Dust Fugit Dust Windblown Dust 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY(Tons/Yr)

Figure 5-21. Pre02d annual SO 2 source contributions by WRAP state.

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000

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Figure 5-22. Pre02d annual PM 2.5 source contributions by WRAP state.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

151 Area On-Road Nonroad Point Nat Rx Fire Anthro Rx Fire Ag Fire Wildfire Road Dust Fugit Dust Windblown Dust 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY(Tons/Yr)

Figure 5-23. Pre02d annual PM 10 source contributions by WRAP state.

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY(Tons/Yr)

Figure 5-24. Pre02d annual PMc source contributions by WRAP state.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

152 

### 5.7 Emissions Sensitivities
As most of the RMC’s efforts during project year 2004 were focused on developing and refining the 2002 emissions base case, th e number of emissions sensit ivities performed during the reporting period was limited.

• A group of sensitivities for tes ting the effects of different configurations of the fire inventories (Task 11) was carri ed over from the 2003 work plan and is covered in detail in Section 12 of this report.

• Although simulation Pre02c is considered an extension of the prel iminary 2002 base case modeling rather than an emissions sensitivity, Pre02c could be evaluated as an emissions sensitivity of the WRAP fi re inventories by comparing it with Pre02b. Comparisons between the two simulations ar e provided in Section 5.7.

• Using the revised 2002 WRAP fire emissions inventories, we designed two sensitivities to test the effects of these new fire invent ories on the air quality modeling. We designed simulation Pre02e_36 to evaluate of the effect s of natural versus an thropogenic fires and simulation Pre02f_36 to study the overall eff ects of the new fire inventories on the modeling. Additional details about simula tions Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36 are found in Sections 5.4.8 and 5.4.9, respectively.

• Although several emissions sens itivities were outlined in the 2004 RMC work plan (for evaluating different configura tions of the agricultural NH 3 emissions and windblown dust models, plus a series of othe r unspecified sensitivities), we were able to complete only one emission control sensitivity that was derived from the Pre02c_36 simulation: Pre02c_36s01, which was introduced in Section 5.4.6 and is discussed in more detail below.
Simulation Pre02c_36s01 addressed nonroad mobile diesel controls. Working with the WRAP Economic Analysis Forum, we implemented a cont rol scenario to evalua te the effects of the diesel retrofit program on nonroad diesel emissions in Arizona, North Dakota, and Montana. The Economic Analysis Forum provided us with control factors by Federal Implementation Standards (FIPS) code and SCC. We used this inform ation to generate a SMOKE input file to apply the diesel retrofit program contro ls to VOC, CO, and PM emissions in the applicable counties in those three states. As the WRAP nonroad mobile -source inventory is not detailed enough for us to apply the controls to the exact sources th at were targeted, we decided to use a more conservative approach that woul d control more simulated emissions than the actual controls would impact. This conservative approach ove rstates the effects of the control program by affecting more emissions sources and pollutants th an is realistic. The Economic Analysis Forum contractor that provided the control factors agr eed that the conservative approach was reasonable because of the relatively limited amount of emissions that the controls target in the model (Tom Timbario, Emissions Advantage, personal co mmunication, October 13, 2004). Emissions Advantage and the RMC agreed th at if the conservative appro ach showed significant results when used in an air quality modeling simula tion, we would then re visit the Pre02c_36s01 sensitivity simulation and refine the controls to be more realistic. Analysis of the modeling results are available in the Economic Analysis Framework Test Application report (BBC, 2004)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

153 

### 5.8 Problems Encountered and Corrections

This section summarizes the emissions modeli ng problems we encountered during the preliminary 2002 modeling and the corrections we made . Subsections on the various emissions components present details about each major issue, incl uding an explanation of the issue, how it was discovered, and (if necessary) the corrective actions implemented. If the issue did require corrective action, we also explain how we confirmed the fix.


### 5.8.1 Stationary area sources

• Area Issue #1

♦ Question : Why did we observe large differen ces between winter and summer areasource CO emissions in the eastern U.S. a nd Canada? Spatial plots of the emissions showed large differences in magnitude (> 100%) across vast spatia l extents in some areas of the modeling domain.

♦ Answer : The differences in CO emissions are du e to (1) seasonal activity trends and (2) different approaches for spatiall y allocating residential wood smoke and prescribed-fire emissions.

• As those wood combustion sources are the la rgest sources of CO in the stationaryarea-source inventory, the hi ghly seasonal temporal profiles applied to them result in large differences in the emissions throughout the year.

• The reason behind the spatial patterns of the emissions differences is related to how the emissions from those combusti on sources are spatially allocated. Canada: Due to the lack of high-resoluti on spatial surrogates for Canada, the area-source emissions are spat ially allocated at the province level, as opposed to the county level in the U.S. The larg e-magnitude wood smoke emissions are spread over a wide spatial extent and app ear to impact major areas of Canada in the modeling domain when spatial pl ots of the emissions are viewed. United States: In the eastern U.S., the prescribed-fire emissions exhibit wide spatial impacts as opposed to the western U.S. because in the 2002 WRAP inventory, fires are treated as point sour ces and are concentrated to single grid cells in the WRAP states. Treated as area sources in the inventory for the eastern U.S., the fire emissions appear to have larger spatial impact s because they are being fractionally allocated to the area of entire counties.

• Area Issue # 2

♦ Question : Why were there no NH 3 emissions from area sources in the eastern U.S.? Spatial plots of the emissions showed NH 3 emissions everywhere in the domain except the eastern U.S.

♦ Answer : The NH 3 column in the NEI96 inventory that we used for the preliminary 2002 modeling was corrupted, resu lting in the loss of some data. After reinstalling the inventory on the RMC machines, we rege nerated the simulation with SMOKE. TheFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

154spatial plots created from this new simulation showed complete coverage for all areasource pollutants.

• Area Issue # 3

♦ Question : After integrating the NH 3 model emissions into simulations Pre02d_36, why were there still NH 3 emissions from the modeled sources in the VISTAS areasource inventory?

♦ Answer : To keep from double-counting emissions, we removed the SCCs covered by the NH 3 emissions model from the U.S. area-so urce inventories. The first round of the removal missed the sources in the VI STAS inventory. We discovered during QA of simulation Pre02d_36 that the sources we were supposed to have removed were still in the VISTAS inventory. We rem oved the sources and reran the area-source simulation.



### 5.8.2 Nonroad mobile sources

• Nonroad Issue # 1

♦ Question : Why did the spatial plots of CO, NO x , and SO 2 show emissions in water cells off the coasts of Canada?

♦ Answer : The Canadian nonroad mobile-source in ventory contains shipping emissions that are spatially allocated in shipping lanes off the coasts of Canada.

• Nonroad Issue #2

♦ Question : Why do time-series plots of the dom ain-total area-source emissions show that the emissions for the month of Ja nuary are lower than in December and February?

♦ Answer : We expect all three wint er months to have the same emissions magnitude. In this case, however, December and February are the same but January is lower. For some reason the WRAP area-source emissions did not get importe d correctly for the January simulation and we lost these emissi ons from the results. A simple rerun of SMOKE for the month of January resolved th e issue. The final time-series plot shows that the emissions magnitudes for December, January, and February are the same.

• Nonroad issue #3

♦ Question : Why did the WRAP nonroad mobile-s ource emissions exhibit less diurnal variability than the rest of the domain?

♦ Answer : Animations of the emissions data s howed strong diurnal variability in the nonroad mobile-source emissions everywhere but in the WRAP states. Diagnostic analysis revealed that because of a new lumped SCC contained in the WRAP inventory, we were assigning the defau lt uniform temporal profiles to the WRAPFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

155 nonroad emissions. These default profiles ar e flat, meaning that they assign the emissions uniformly across all months, days , and hours. These flat profiles caused the WRAP nonroad mobile-source emissions to exhi bit less diurnal variability relative to the rest of the domain. Since the WRAP inventory contractor created these SCCs specifically for the 2002 WRAP modeling, we did not have cross-references for themin the default SMOKE ancillary input files. To correct this problem, we added crossreferences for these new SCCs to the temporal, speciation, and spatial cross-reference files. We also added descriptions of these new WRAP nonroad SCCs to the SMOKE SCC description file. Table 5-31 lists the de scriptions and the temporal, speciation, and spatial cross-reference codes applied to these new SCCs. After rerunning SMOKE with the corrected cross-reference codes, animations of the nonroad mobile-source emissions showed that the diurnal variability in these emissions in the WRAP states was more similar to that in the rest of the domain.

Table 5-31. Description and profile assignment s for new WRAP 2002 nonroad mobile SCCs.*

SCC Description TREF code † SREF code † GREF code †

2200001000 Mobile Sources; Off-highway Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG+LPG; Recreational Equipment; Total 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 1

2200002000 Mobile Sources; Off-highway Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG+LPG; Construction and Mining Equipment; Total 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 1

2200003000 Mobile Sources; Off-highway Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG+LPG; Industrial Equipment; Total General Industrial 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 1

2200004000 Mobile Sources; Off-highway Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG+LPG; Lawn and Garden Equipment; Total 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 2

2200005000 Mobile Sources; Off-highway Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG+LPG; Agricultural Equipment; Total 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 6

2200006000 Mobile Sources; Off-highway Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG+LPG; Commercial Equipment; Total 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 1

2200007000 Mobile Sources; Off-highway Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG+LPG; Logging Equipment; Total 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 14

2200008000 Mobile Sources; Off-highway Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG+LPG; Aircraft; Total 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 10

2200008005 Mobile Sources; Off-highway Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG+LPG; Airport Ground Support Equipment; Airport Ground Support Equipment 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 10

2200009000 Mobile Sources; Off-highw ay Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG +LPG; Underground Mining Equipment; Total 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 1

2200010000 Mobile Sources; Off-highw ay Vehicles; Gasoline+CNG +LPG; Industrial Equipment; Total Oil Field Equipment 26 VOC: 1186 PM2.5: 35700 1

*New abbreviations used in this table: CNG = compressed natural gas; LPG = liquefied petroleum gas. † TREF, SREF, and GREF are SMOKE cross-reference input f iles for temporal allocation, chemical speciation, and spatial allocation, respectively.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

156 • Nonroad Issue #4

♦ Question : Why do the time-series plots of the nonroad mobile-source emissions show monthly as opposed to the e xpected seasonal variability?

♦ Answer : Similar to the area-source emissions , the nonroad emissions data exhibit strong seasonal temporal patterns. The tim e-series plots of the nonroad emissions showed more monthly variation than we e xpected. Diagnostic analyses revealed that because the time-series plots are derived from domainwide emissions totals (U.S. + Canada + Mexico), conflicti ng definitions of the seasons between the U.S. and Canada affect the temporal patterns in the a ggregate emissions totals. In the U.S., the winter temporal profiles encompass the m onths January, February, and March; spring includes April, May, and, June; etc. In Ca nada, the winter tem poral profiles encompass the months December, January, February ; spring comprises March, April, May; etc. Buried in the time-series plots are tw o different patterns of seasonal variability, one for the U.S. and one for Canada. Because these definitions are out of phase, they give the aggregate time-series plots the a ppearance of monthly va riation. We did not do anything to correct this issue. Two sc hools of thought exist on what months constitute each season. These two schools of thought are captured in the U.S. versus Canadian temporal profiles.

• Nonroad Issue #5

♦ Question : Shipping emissions in the WRAP nonro ad inventory are all allocated to ports, but the inventory represents both in-port and ocean-going emissions.

♦ Answer : UNC-CEP and ENVIRON split the ship ping SCC in the nonroad inventory into in-port and ocean-going sources. We us ed the original SCC to represent the inport component of the data and modeled them as emissions occurring at the ports. ENVIRON provided guidance on how to split th e inventory to obtain the ocean-going component of the data. We allocated these emissions to cells within 25 miles of the ports or landfall. The Pacific coast of the WRAP domain now correctly represents the shipping emissions in the nonroad mobile-source inventory.

• Nonroad Issue #6

♦ Question : Why were on-road mobile-source refu eling emissions counted in both the nonroad and MOBILE6-der ived inventories?

♦ Answer : The developer of the WRAP on-road mobile-source emissions inventory alerted us to the fact that refueling emi ssions are contained in the on-road mobilesource inventory that they derived with MOBILE6. Investigation of the nonroad inventory revealed that we ar e counting refueling emissions in that inventory as well. Looking at the processes that the RMC is modeling with MOBILE6 for the nonWRAP states also reveals that we are mode ling the refueling emissions in the on-road inventory there. To correct this double-c ounting issue, we removed the refueling SCCs from the WRAP nonroad inventory and turned off the refueling emissionsFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

157 process in the non-WRAP on-road mobile simu lations. Because of the form in which we received the mobile-source inventory data from the WRAP inventory developers, we are forced to be inconsistent in the way we model refueling emissions in the WRAP and non-WRAP states. For the WR AP states, we are using precomputed MOBILE6 emissions that include refueling emissions and a nonroad inventory that does not include refueling emissions. For the non-WRAP states we are running MOBILE6 to calculate on-road mobile emissions without computing refueling emissions, and using a nonroad mobile inventory that does contain refueling emissions. A more consistent approach w ould be either to run MOBILE6 for the entire domain and represent refueling emissions in the on-road mobile inventory or to use the precomputed refueling emissions in the nonroad mobile inventory for the entire domain.



### 5.8.3 Road dust sources
The RMC encountered no major QA issues dur ing the road dust emissions modeling.



### 5.8.4 On-road mobile sources

• On-road Issue #1

♦ Question : What was causing MOBILE6 to crash on the RMC computers?

♦ Answer : We discovered that we can run MOBI LE6 only on a dedicated node because of memory limitations. MOBILE6 requires too much system memory to run on both processors of a node. We now run MOBILE6 on dedicated RMC machines.

• On-road Issue #2

♦ Question : Why do the MOBILE6 emissions files s poradically contain bad values and infinities?

♦ Answer : We are speculating that networking tr affic corrupts the write functions of some SMOKE programs. We think that th e system is the culprit and not SMOKE. Rerunning the modeling period where the bad values occurred corrects the problem, thus identifying the state of the system as the variable affecting the model results. When we find files containing bad values, we rerun SMOKE to correct the problem.

• On-road Issue #3

♦ Question : Why do the on-road mobile-source time-series plots show weekly and monthly variability? There does not appear to be any uniformity in the temporal patterns.

♦ Answer : Unlike the stationary-area- or nonr oad mobile-source emissions, on-road mobile-source emissions are derived using hourly temperat ures. The influence of the hourly meteorology causes emissions differences on an hourly basis.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

158 • On-road Issue #4

♦ Question : Why were PM emissions double-counted in the states outside of the WRAP domain?

♦ Answer : Analyses of the spatial plots of the on-road mobile-source emissions revealed that PM emissions existed in both the VMT simulations and the precomputed emissions simulations in the non-WR AP states. The redundancy indicated that the emissions were being double-counted dur ing the final merge of the files. We removed the PM contribution from the preco mputed emissions and reran the simulations. Now PM is being calculated only by MOBILE6 for the non-WRAP states.

• On-road Issue #5

♦ Question : Why do the spatial plots of the on-road mobile-sou rce emissions show that there is no SO 2 from mobile sources in Canada, nor NH 3 from mobile sources in Mexico?

♦ Answer : The Canadian and Mexican emissions inventories do not contain on-road mobile-source emissions for SO 2 or NH 3 , respectively.



### 5.8.5 Point sources
5.8.5.1 Stationary point sources

• Point Issue #1

♦ Question : Why did the first PinG simulation dr op all of the emissions in the WRAP states?

♦ Answer : Spatial plots of vertically summed emissions showed that there were no stationary-point-source emi ssions in the WRAP states following the PinG SMOKE simulation. Because we wanted to select on ly PinG sources in the WRAP states, we attempted to define the WRAP region as a subdomain of the entire modeling region. SMOKE was not able to handle the defi nition of the subdomain and ended up dropping all emissions in the WRAP states. Th e solution to the problem was to split the point-source inventory betw een the WRAP and non-WRAP states. We then applied the PinG selection criteria to the WRAP inventory and merged it with the non-WRAP point-source inventory later. The vertically summed spatial plots derived from this new simulation revealed that only a select subset of cells in the WRAP states are affected by the PinG simulation.

• Point Issue #2

♦ Question : Why were there stationary point NH 3 sources in the CENRAP states that are 50% larger than similar sources in other parts of the modeling domain?Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

159 ♦ Answer : An error in the NEI96 propagated through to the WRAP 2002 stationarypoint-source inventory, whic h was based on the NEI96. The NEI2002 released by the EPA in 2004 corrected these errors. We removed the CENRAP point sources from the WRAP inventory and replaced these data with the NEI2002.

5.8.5.2 Fire sources

• Fire Issue #1

♦ Question : Why was SMOKE having a memory fault when we tried to import the prescribed-fire inventory?

♦ Answer : The prescribed-fire emissions invent ory is too large (too many sources) to process as an annual inventory. We broke the inventory into monthly segments and it processed through SMOKE with no problems.

• Fire Issue #2

♦ Question : What do the vertical profile plots for the prescribed and wildfire emissions show large emissions spikes in layer 15 on some days?

♦ Answer : Some prescribed and wildfire emission s reach to the top of the model (layer 19). When the emissions layers are capped at layer 15, all of th e emissions that are allocated above layer 15 are collapsed into the top emissions layer by SMOKE. We reconfigured SMOKE to extend the emissions layers for prescribed and wildfires to layer 19. Regenerated verti cal profile plots then show ed a smooth falloff of the emissions with height.

• Fire Issue #3

♦ Question : Why was SMOKE unable to recognize the time zone “AKT” in the 2002 fire inventories?

♦ Answer : The 2002 fire inventories contained data for Alaska that are tagged with the time zone code “AKT”. SMOKE is not configured to run using the AKT time zone, so it crashed when it read this field in the inventory files. As Alaska is outside of the WRAP 36-km modeling domain, we changed the time zone of the Alaska emissions to “PST” to allow SMOKE to run through to completion. The Alaska emissions are not being used in this app lication of the preliminary 2002 modeling, so this modification to the time zone for these sources is irrelevant.

• Fire Issue #4

♦ Question : Why did the new prescribed fire and wi ldfire sources have default temporal and speciation profiles applied, when we created profiles specifically for these sources during the §309 modeling in 2002?Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

160 ♦ Answer : The new 2002 fire inventories contained SCCs that we had never modeled. We needed to add these SCCs to the tempor al and speciation cro ss-reference files to apply the correct temporal and chemical pr ofiles to these new sources. After adding the correct cross-references to these sources to the SMOKE input files, we reran the natural and anthropogenic fire emissions a nd the revised wildfire emissions through SMOKE. QA on the new simulation revealed that the correct prof iles are now being applied to these sources.

5.8.5.3 Offshore sources

• Offshore Issue #1

♦ Question : Why did the first version of the off- shore emissions inventory for California contain sources on-shore?

♦ Answer : Spatial plots of the off-shore emissions revealed several sources on-shore in California. We adjusted the la t-lon coordinates for these s ources to place them in their intended locations off the coast.



### 5.8.6 Biogenic sources
The RMC encountered no major QA issues dur ing the biogenic emissions modeling.


### 5.8.7 SMOKE ancillary input files
5.8.7.1 Spatial surrogates

• Surrogate Issue #1

♦ Question : When we implemented the new spatial cross-reference file from EPA, why did SMOKE indicate that it could not find surrogates for Dade County, FL?

♦ Answer : The EPA spatial cross-reference file s use an updated FIPS code for MiamiDade County, FL. We updated all of the inve ntory files for Florida to be consistent with the new coding scheme. By changing the FIPS code for Dade County from 12025 to 12086 in the appropriate inventor y files, we made the inventories compatible with the new cross-reference files.

• Surrogate Issue #2

♦ Question : Why were there a large number of SCCs from the WRAP inventory missing from the new EPA spat ial cross-reference file?

♦ Answer : The WRAP inventory contained more recent information than the EPA surrogates file. Switching to the new EP A surrogates in April 2004 and obtaining the new cross-reference file for these surroga tes corrected most of these missing SCC assignments.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

161 5.8.7.2 Temporal profiles
The RMC encountered no major QA issu es with the temporal profiles.
5.8.7.3 Speciation profiles
The RMC encountered no major QA issu es with the speciation profiles.



### 5.9 Outstanding Emissions Issues
This section outlines two sets of issues with the preliminary 2002 modeling. The first set below are those that needed to be re solved after simulation Pre02c. Th ese were listed in the WRAP 2004 interim report, but had not yet been resolved at that time. As discussed below, we corrected many of the issues from the Pre02c simulation in simulation Pre02d .The second set are issues that came to light during the Pre02d modeling and that are yet to be resolved. They will need to be corrected in the next round of 2002 modeling.

• Pre02c emissions issues (now corrected):

♦ We did not include windblown dust emissions in simulation Pre02c.

 Emissions from the WRAP windblown dust model were added in simulation Pre02d.

♦ No transport fractions were applied to the fugitive dust emissions sources within the stationary-area-s ource inventory.

 Fugitive dust sources were treated explic itly in simulation Pre02d using an inventory that contains transp ort fraction corrections ba sed county land-cover data.

♦ Placeholder 2002 emissions inventories were used for the non-WRAP U.S. states. (We were waiting for actual 2002 emissions inventories from the other RPOs.)

 In simulation Pre02d we replaced the pl aceholder inventories with the VISTAS 2002 inventories and the NEI2002.

♦ We did not include outpu t from the ENVIRON NH 3 emissions model in simulation Pre02c.

 We added emissions from the NH 3 model in simulation Pre02d.

♦ We used an outdated Canadian emissions inventory.

 In simulation Pre02d we replaced all of the nonpoint Canadian inventories with the 2000 National Canadian Inventory.

♦ There were no 12-km meteorol ogy data to use for finishing the emissions simulations on the nested WRAP domain.

 Annual meteorology data for the 12-km WRAP modeling domain became available in February 2005, allowing us to co mplete the 12-km emissions simulation.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

162 ♦ We did not include offshore-mobile-sour ce (shipping) emissions in simulation Pre02c.

 For simulation Pre02d, we split the shi pping emissions in the nonroad inventory into in-port and ocean-going sources. The ocean-going emissions only are a fraction of the shipping emissions, but there is still work required to add emissions from the commercial shipping lanes and in international waters.

• Pre02d emissions issues (still to be corrected):

♦ We need to replace the placeholder NEI2002 inventories with actual 2002 inventories from the other RPOs as they become available. The MANE-VU, CENRAP, and Midwest RPOs all have 2002 inventories that we will include in the next iteration of the 2002 emissions base case simulation.

♦ No in-flight aircraft em issions were included.

♦ We treated Mexican and Canadian emissions with U.S. rather than local holidays.

♦ We need to replace the 1999 Mexican em issions inventory wi th the 2000 inventory that will be available in Spring 2005.

♦ We need to replace the Gulf of Mexico offshore-point-source emissions inventory with the 2002 Minerals Management area- and point-source inventories.

♦ Emissions from many natural sources are mi ssing, such as geogenic, volcanic, and sea salt emissions.

♦ We need to replace the preliminary Canadi an 2000 inventories with the final version of these data.

♦ We need to upgrade the RMC systems to SMOKE version 2.1.



### 5.10 Emissions Data Technology Transfer

As part of an outreach program, the RMC prep ared a number of SMOKE reports and gridded emissions data in ASCII format and sent them to Cassie Archuleta of Air Resource Specialists, Inc. These reports included annual totals by st ate for area, mobile, nonro ad mobile, point, road dust, and offshore sources from scenario Pre02b, and daily reports for the fire and biogenic sources from scenario Pre02c.

Also for Cassie Archuleta, we summed and extr acted yearly totals for PMFINE and PMC from netCDF files, and prepared ASCII gridded emis sions files for area, point, road dust, and windblown dust sources and total emissi ons. We also sent her files of NH 3 data from the ammonia emissions model devel oped by ENVIRON, as gridded da ta and “by county” data for total NH 3 and by NH 3 category.
Annual averages for EXT, DECV, OC, and EC we re calculated and se nt to Air Resource Specialists, Inc., as ASCII gridded values for scenarios Pre02b, Pre02c , Pre02e, and Pre02f.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

163 We sent SMOKE programs and scripts to the Park Services in Colorado and helped them install and run these scripts for scenario Pre02d. Th e Pre02 inventory and me teorology data along with some SMOKE outputs were also sent to them. Other SMOKE reports were sent to the Utah Division of Air Quality.



### 5.11 Next Steps
As stated at the beginning of Section 5, the primary goal of the RMC emissions modeling team in project year 2004 was to develop a comprehe nsive 2002 base case emissions inventory for the WRAP. Through the modeling of the various prelim inary base case simulations discussed above, we refined and quality-assured th e WRAP 2002 emissions inventories. The next step in the emissions simulation task is to conduct the final (as opposed to preliminary) 2002 base case simulation. We anticipate starting on this simula tion after the RMC finishes preparing the final 36-km and 12-km meteorology data in early 2005 . The first step in simulating the final 2002 base case will be to upgrade th e RMC modeling system to SMOKE version 2.1 (CEP, 2004a). Then, as the data become available, we w ill reprocess the meteorology-dependent emissions categories, integrate any new inventory data that become available, and address any issues/problems discovered during the QA process for simulation Pre02d. In addition to the new meteorology, we expect new Mexi can inventories, additional U. S. RPO 2002 inventories, and updates to the WRAP windblown dust emissions to become available before the final 2002 base case simulation is completed. The final 2002 emissions modeling will be completed for both the continental 36-km domain and the nested WRAP 12-km domain. Depending on the results of the PinG emissions sensitivity that is pending w ith the RMC, the final 2002 emissions may also include some PinG emissions for the largest WRAP point sources.
After completing the final 2002 base case simulati on, we will work on creating a future-year, 2018 base case emissions simulation. After finalizing the 2018 emissions, we will begin conducting emissions sensitivities to evaluate na tural sources of haze in the WRAP region. Throughout all of the modeling that the RMC em issions modeling team will complete in 2005, we will continue to refine the WRAP emissions modeling QA protocol and streamline the process of running annual emissions simulati ons, completing the quality assurance, and transmitting the data to the air quality m odeling team for input to CMAQ or CAMx.



### 5.12 Status of Task 3 Deliverables
Table 5-32 gives the status of each Task 3 deli verable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliverables agreed upon after the work plan was prepared.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

164 Table 5-32. Status of the Task 3 deliverables.

Deliverable Status
2002 36-km winter/summer emissions simulation Completed in January 2004: simulation Pre02a_36

2002 36-km annual emissions simulation Comp leted in May 2004: simulation Pre02b_36 Periodic major updates to the annual 2002 simulation Completed in June 2004: simulation Pre02c_36 Completed in December 2004: simulation Pre02d_36 Completed in September 2004: simulation Pre02e_36 Completed in September 2004: simulation Pre02f_36 2002 12-km emissions simulation Completed meteorology-independent emissions in August 2004: simulation Pre02c_12 Completed in February 2005: simulation Pre02d_12 Emissions for PinG case Completed one-month preliminary PinG emissions simulation in August 2004: simulation Pre02c_36_PinGFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

165 

## 6. Task 4: Air Quality Model Evaluation for 2002 Annual Simulation

In this section we present th e operational model performance ev aluation of the preliminary 2002 Base D (pre02d) CMAQ base case annual simulati on. The pre02d scenario is the fourth and final preliminary 2002 base case emissions scen ario generated as part of the WRAP 2002 modeling using preliminary and projected es timates of 2002 emissions (see Section 5). * We applied CMAQ for the 2002 calendar year on the 36-km continental RPO Unified domain and the 12-km WRAP modeling domain. For mete orological input, the pre02d CMAQ base case simulation used results from the final WRAP 200 2 MM5 simulation discussed in Section 4. The CMAQ pre02d model performance evaluation pr esented in this section focuses on the performance for PM components within the WRAP subregion, although model performance across the entire continental U.S. is also presented. The CMAQ 2002 pre02d 36- and 12-km simulations were evaluated usi ng gas-phase and particulate matter species and wet deposition from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet), the Speciated Trends Network (STN), and the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) network, as well as the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization 24-hour (SEARCH) and hourly (SEARCH_H) observations networks in the southeastern Un ited States. Many di splays of CMAQ model performance have been generated for the pre 02d base case simulation and are contained on the project web site:
http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#pre02d
Section 6 summarizes the operati onal evaluation of the CMAQ pre02d base case simulation for PM species only in the WRAP subregion. The reader is invited to peruse the project web site for additional model performance information.



### 6.1 Operational Evaluation Approach
As the 2002 CMAQ pre02d simulation is an inte rim simulation using preliminary emissions inputs, the model performance eval uation is neither comprehensive nor exhaustive. Rather, it is designed to test the 2002 modeling approach and to identify any obvious flaws in the modeling system and model inputs so that any corrections n eeded can be applied to the subsequent revised 2002 CMAQ base case simulation to be conduc ted in 2005. The WRAP 2002 CMAQ modeling database is intended be used to develop the vi sibility SIPs and TIPs due in December 2007 (see Section 1.1.1). Accordingly, our operational evaluation focuse s on the six components of PM that are used to generated visibility estimates using the IMPROVE aerosol extinction equation (these include four of the major components of PM 2.5 ):

* Future 2002 emissions modeling performed in the next project year will be based on final 2002 emissions inventories.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

166 • Sulfate (SO 4 )

• Particulate nitrate (NO 3 )

• Organic carbon (OC)

• Elemental carbon (EC) or lig ht-absorbing carbon (LAC)

• Other inorganic fi ne PM (soil)

• Coarse mass (CM)
The IMPROVE aerosol extinction equati on (Malm et al., 2000) assumes that SO 4 and NO 3 are completely neutraliz ed by ammonium (NH 4 ). This is partly becau se the standard IMPROVE measurements do not include NH 4 . Thus, the evaluation belo w only briefly discusses NH 4 model performance using derived NH 4 “observations” for the IMPROVE network by assuming NH 4 completely neutralizes the SO 4 and NO 3 measurements.



### 6.1.1 Performance evaluation tools
One of the challenges in evaluating an annual PM-ozone model simulation is the synthesis and interpretation of many graphical and tabular displays of model performance into a few concise and descriptive displays that iden tify the most salient features of model performance. As part of the WRAP evaluation of the 2002 36- and 12-km CMAQ pre02d base case simulations, we used several analysis tools that automatically genera ted numerous graphical a nd statistical summaries used to gauge model performance, taking advant age of their various de scriptive and complementary characteristics:

• UCR Analysis Tools: The UCR analysis tools were us ed extensively in the WRAP §309 modeling for 1996, and are run on a Linux pl atform separately for each monitoring network. Graphics are automatically genera ted using gnuplot, and the software generates the following:

♦ Tabular statistical measures

♦ Time-series plots

♦ Scatterplots for three stratifications: (1) all sites in the selected subregion and selected time period (allsite_allday); (2) all days in the selected time period for each site (allday_onesite); and (3) a ll sites within the selected subregion for each day (allsite_oneday).

• ENVIRON Analysis Tools: ENVIRON also has model evalua tion analysis tools similar to the UCR tools. Because they were redundant, they were not used in the WRAP study. However, as part of the WRAP §309 SIP analysis, ENVIRON developed specialized evaluation tools that interface with the UCR tools to analy ze visibility model performance for the best-20% and worst-20% visibil ity days that are used in visibility projections.

• Bugle Plots: Dr. James Boylan of the Georgia Department of Natural Resources has developed a technique for disp laying model bias and error w ith model performance goalsFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

167 and criteria as a function of observed concentr ation that allows the performance goals to expand as the concentrations decrease.
The analysis tools generated thous ands of statistical measures a nd graphical displays of model performance that cannot all be displayed in this report. We went through the plots and measures using slide shows, looking for i ndications of potentially faulty inputs or model formulation problems that should be corrected for the re vised 2002 CMAQ simulations and pulling out key descriptive displays for this report.
Note that model performance statistics are calculated separately for each of the monitoring networks. Different PM measurement technol ogy can produce different measurement values even when measuring the same air parcel. Thus , we did not mix measurements from different networks when calculating m odel performance metrics.


### 6.1.2 Subdomains analyzed
Using the monitoring networks listed in the first paragraph of Section 6, we analyzed PM model performance for the preliminary 2002 CMAQ 36-km and 12-km pre02d base case simulations for just the WRAP subregion. Note that becau se the SEARCH network monitors reside only in the southeastern U.S., the model performance fo r the SEARCH and SEARCH _H networks is not included in this report.



### 6.1.3 Model performan ce goals and criteria
The issue of model performance goals for PM sp ecies is an area of ongoing research and debate. For ozone modeling, EPA has established performance goals for 1-h ozone normalized mean bias and gross error of ≤ ±15% and ≤ 35%, respectively (U.S. EPA, 1991). EPA’s draft fine PM modeling guidance notes that pe rformance goals for ozone should be viewed as upper bounds of model performance that PM models may not be able to always achieve , and that we should demand better model performance for PM components that make up a larger fraction of the PM mass than those that are minor contributors (U.S . EPA, 2001). Measuring PM species is not as precise as monitoring ozone. In fact, the differen ces in measurement techniques for some species likely exceed the more stringent performance goals , such as those for ozone. For example, recent comparisons of the PM species measuremen ts using the IMPROVE and STN measurement technologies found differences from approximately ±20% (SO 4 ) to ±50% (EC) (Solomon et al., 2004).
For the preliminary 2002 CMAQ pre02d base case m odeling, we adopted three levels of model performance goals or criteria for bias and gross error (Table 6- 1). They start with the most stringent ozone bias/error performance goals of ±15%/35%, which ar e followed by ±30%/50% bias/error performance go als that we believe a good-perfor ming PM model should achieve, and they conclude with ±60%/75% bi as/error criteria that, if equaled or exceeded, suggest potential problems with the model simulation. Note that we are not suggesting that these performance goals/criteria be generally adopted or that they are the most appropriate to use. Rather, we are using them just to frame and put the PM model pe rformance into context a nd to facilitate model performance intercomparison across episodes, species, models, and sensitivity tests.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

168 Table 6-1. Model performance goals/criteria us ed to help interpret modeling results.

Fractional Bias Fractional Error Comment

≤ ±15% ≤ 35% If these ozone model performance goals are met, PM model performance would be considered good. Note that for many PM species, measurement uncertainties may exceed these goals.

≤ ±30% ≤ 50% Proposed PM model performance goals that we would hope each PM species could meet.

≤ ±60% ≤ 75% If these proposed PM criteria are exceeded, that indicates potential fundamental problems with the modeling system.

As noted in EPA’s draft fine PM modeling guidance, less abundant PM species should have less stringent performance goals. Accordingly, we are al so using performance goals that are a continuous function of average observed concentratio ns, as proposed by Dr. James Boylan at the Georgia Department of Natural Resources (Boy lan, 2004), which have the following features:

• Asymptotically approaching proposed perfor mance goals/criteria (i.e., the ±30%/50% and ±60%/75% bias/error levels listed in Table 6-1) when the mean of the observed concentrations is greater than 2.5 μg/m 3

.

• Approaching 200% error and ±200 % bias when the mean of the observed concentrations approaches zero.
On “bugle plots,” bias and error are plotted as a function of aver age observed concentrations. As the mean observed concentration approaches zero, the bias performance goals and criteria flare out to ±200%, creating a horn shape (hence the pl ot name). Dr. Boylan has defined three zones of model performance: Zone 1 meets the ±30% /50% bias/error performance goals and is considered “good” model performa nce; Zone 2 lies between the ±30%/50% performance goals and ±60%/75% performance criteria and is an area where concern for model performance is raised; and Zone 3 lies above the ±60%/75% performance criteria a nd is an area of questionable model performance.
Note that Dr. Boylan’s chosen observed concentration (2.5 μg/m 3 ) where the performance goals/criteria begin to flare toward ±200% may be more appropriate for the eastern U.S., where concentrations are higher and vi sibility impairment greater; it may be too high for the western U.S., which has lower concentrations. For now we are using his chosen concentration in our evaluation, but the issue should be re-examined for the western states.



### 6.1.4 Performance time periods
In this 2002 CMAQ pre02d evaluation, model perfo rmance evaluation statistics and graphical displays were generated for monthly time peri ods using the native averaging times of each monitoring network (i.e., 24 hours for IMPROVE and STN; one week for CASTNet and NADP). We did not attempt to evaluate the model usin g longer-term averages (e.g., seasonal and annualFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

169 averages). The monthly performance evaluation doe s provide some indications of seasonal trends in performance. We could have used longer-te rm averaging in the model evaluation by converting the predicted and observed short-term concen trations into longer-ter m averages, but using that procedure can mask some performance problems and may introduce compensating errors, with overpredictions compen sating for underpredictions. For example, in the WRAP 1996 multimodel evaluation we saw that the three models (CMAQ, REMSAD, and CAMx) exhibited low sulfate bias for annual averages, but that was due to a winter overestimation bias being compensated for by a summer underestimation bias . We therefore avoided using longer-term averages so that we did not defeat one of the purposes of the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case evaluation: to uncover flaws and problems that should be corrected in revised CMAQ base cases.



### 6.1.5 Performance measures
The UCR model performance analysis tools ge nerate hundreds of graphical displays over 20 statistical measures of model pe rformance for each species, netw ork, subdomain, and time period comparison (see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml ). As we reviewed the CMAQ performance, we found that the fractional bias and fractional gross erro r, along with graphical displays including scatter- and time-series plot s, contain the best descriptive power for evaluating PM species. We also focus much of our discussion on the performance for four months that represent the di fferent seasons: January, Apr il, July, and October (although fractional bias and error are pres ented for all 12 months of 2002).



### 6.2 Operational Evaluation of CMAQ Base Case D (pre02d) in the WRAP States
In the following discussions we use selected mont hly scatterplots, time-series plots, and model performance statistical measures in an operati onal evaluation of the model for PM species. As noted above, we focus on the six main components of PM that are used to project visibility: SO 4 , NO 3 , OC, EC, soil, and CM. We also briefly examine NH 4 model performance.



### 6.2.1 Sulfate (SO 4 

### )
Figure 6-1 displays scatterplots of predicted and observed sulf ate concentrations for IMPROVE, CASTNet, STN, and NADP sites in the WRAP stat es for January, April, July, and October 2002. In January, the CMAQ 36-km simulation exhibits SO 4 fractional bias levels of 42%, 28%, and -7% across monitors in the IMPROVE, CASTNe t, and STN networks, respectively, in the western U.S. When a 12-km grid is used, the fr actional bias across the sa me three networks is much higher: 65%, 63%, and 60%, respectively. Th e use of the higher-resolution grid results in higher SO 4 concentrations and a degradation in the SO 4 model performance. The January performance for wet SO 4 deposition is also degraded when the 12-km grid is used, from a 10% fractional bias using a 36-km grid (not shown) to a 69% bias using a 12-km grid (Figure 6-1a). The fractional error for January SO 4 performance degrades by approximately 20 percentage points when going from the 36-km to 12-km grid (e.g., IMPROVE SO 4 January fractional error increases from ~60% to ~80%).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

170 Better SO 4 performance is exhibited across the WRAP IMPROVE sites in April, with a relatively low bias of -6% and 7% and error 39% and 43% using the 36-km and 12-km grid, respectively (Figure 6-1b). The CASTNet bias (-24% at 36-km a nd -1% at 12-km) and STN bias (-14% at 36-km and 13% at 12-km) suggest fa irly good model performance using both grid resolutions. The fractional errors for April SO 4 concentrations are also fairly low (34% to 43%) using both grid resolutions. The April SO 4 concentrations are higher using a 12-km grid than a 36-km grid, but because the model SO 4 bias straddles zero, the model performance between the 36-km and 12-km grid resolutions is comparable. Wet SO 4 deposition in April across the western U.S. indicates a slight underprediction bias of -16% us ing the 36-km grid and slight overprediction bias of 26% using the 12-km grid , with comparable errors of 93% and 86%.
The model also estimates higher SO 4 levels in July using the higher resolution grid, with fractional bias across the IMPROVE, CASTNet, a nd STN networks of 4%, -1%, and -23% using a 36-km grid, increasing to 14%, 23%, and -9% using a 12-km grid. With the exception of the STN network, there is a sli ght degradation in July SO 4 model performance when the 12-km grid is used. However, the July SO 4 model performance is still fairly good. The July wet SO 4 deposition bias increases from -38% using the 36-km grid to 28% using the 12-km grid, with both simulations exhibiting ~100% error.
In October 2002, use of the 12-km grid sligh tly degrades model performance across the more rural IMPROVE and CASTNet mon itors in the western U.S. but improves it across the STN monitors, with fractional bias levels acro ss the three networks increasing from 13%, 3%, and -19% using a 36-km grid to 26%, 21%, and 13% using a 12-km grid. Wet SO 4 deposition using a 36-km grid exhibits low bi as (6%) but high error (84%); results for this metric using the 12-km grid are not available.
The time series of monthly fracti onal bias and gross error for SO 4 at sites in the WRAP states for the 2002 CMAQ pre02d 36-km and 12-km simulations (Figure 6-2) confirm the results from the scatterplots for the four months; SO 4 is overestimated in the wint er and underestimated in the summer, and the fractional bias levels using the 12-km grid are always higher than when using a 36-km grid. With the exception of June 2002, the SO 4 model performance using the IMPROVE network exhibits better bias (i.e., closer to zero ) and lower error when using a 36-km grid versus using a 12-km grid, with the diffe rences in the model performance using the two grid resolutions greater in winter than in summer.
Figure 6-3 displays the SO 4 bugle plots for the 2002 CMAQ pre02d 12-km simulation and the IMPROVE, CASTNet, and STN networks. Th e monthly average fractional bias for SO 4 concentrations in the western U.S. mostly resides in the Zone 1 area of “good” model performance (bias/error of less than ±30%/ 50%), although there are four network-month combinations that reside in th e Zone 2 area between the performa nce goals and criteria, which is an area of concern. SO 4 performance never exceeds the perfor mance criteria. The poorer winter SO 4 model performance occurs under lower SO 4 concentrations, so th e bias and error points reside in the horn of the bugle pl ot, where goals and criteria are relaxed. As noted previously, the relaxing of performa nce goals at around 2 μg/m 3 may be appropriate for the eastern U.S., but more stringent goals/criteria shou ld be defined at these levels for the western U.S. due to the lower concentrations present in the west.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

171 Figure 6-1a. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation SO 4 model performance in the WRAP states for January 2002 using the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right) monitoring networks. (NADP measures wet SO 4 deposition, whereas the other three networks measure ambient air SO 4 concentrations.)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

172 Figure 6-1b. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation SO 4 model performance in the

WRAP states for April 2002 using the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right) monitoring networks. (NADP measures wet SO 4 deposition, whereas the other three networks measure ambient air SO 4 concentrations.).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

173 Figure 6-1c. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation SO 4 model performance in the WRAP states for July 2002 using the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right) monitoring networks. (NADP measures wet SO 4 deposition, whereas the other three networks measure ambient air SO 4 concentrations.)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

174 Figure 6-1d. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation SO 4 model performance in the WRAP states for October 2002 using the IM PROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bottom right) monitoring networks. (NADP measures wet SO 4 deposition, whereas the other three networks measure ambient air SO 4 concentrations.)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

175 Figure 6-2. Monthly fractional bias (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the

CMAQ 2002 pre02d 36-km and 12-km base case SO 4 model performance across IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states. 

### Monthly Fractional Bias, IMPROVE-SO4

-40 -20

0 20 40 60 80 100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFB (%) 12k 36k



### Monthly Fractional Gross Error, IMPROVE-SO4

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFE (%) 12k 36kFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

176 Figure 6-3. Monthly fractional bias (top) a nd fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case SO 4 model performance as a function of observed concentration.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

177 

### 6.2.2 Nitrate (NO 3 

### )
The plots of nitrate (NO 3 ) model performance are shown in Figures 6-4 through 6-6. Except for the STN network, which exhibits an average NO 3 underestimation tendency throughout the year, the CMAQ pre02d base case simula tion tends to overestimate NO 3 in the winter and underestimate it in the summer. The 12-km base case tends to estimate slightly higher NO 3 levels that exacerbate the NO 3 overestimation tendency in the wint er, but improve the underestimation tendency in the summer. As seen in the bugle plots (Figure 6-6), the winter overestimation generally occurs at conc entration levels twice that of the summer underestimation and causes the fractional bias and error points fo r the IMPROVE and CASTNet networ ks to reside in the Zone 3 area of serious model performance concern. At the more urban STN sites, the NO 3 underprediction bias occurs throughout the year and is mo re pronounced in the summer, when its performance also resides in the Zone 3 area of model pe rformance concern (See Fi gures 6-4c and 6-6). The NADP wet NO 3 deposition bias is higher using the 12 -km than the 36-km grid, with 36-km values for January and July being -11% and -73% and corresponding va lues using the 12-km grid being 21% and 43%.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

178 Figure 6-4a. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation NO 3 model performance in the WRAP states for January 2002 using the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bot tom right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

179 Figure 6-4b. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation NO 3 model performance in the WRAP states for April 2002 using the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bot tom right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

180 Figure 6-4c. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation NO 3 model performance in the WRAP states for July 2002 using the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (bot tom right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

181 Figure 6-4d. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation NO 3 model performance in the WRAP states for October 2002 using the IM PROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and NADP (botto m right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

182 Figure 6-5 Monthly fractional bias (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ

2002 pre02d 36-km and 12-km base case NO 3 model performance across IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states. 

### Monthly Fractional Bias, IMPROVE-NO3

-150 -100

-50

0 50 100 150

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFB (%) 12k 36k



### Monthly Fractional Gross Error, IMPROVE-NO3

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFE (%) 12k 36kFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

183 Figure 6-6. Monthly fractional bias (top) a nd fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d 36-km and 12-km base case NO 3 model performance as a function of observed concentration.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

184 

### 6.2.3 Ammonium (NH 4 

### )
The IMPROVE network does not directly measure NH 4 . Consequently, we use “derived” NH 4 concentrations in the IMPROV E model performance evaluati on whereby the “observed” NH 4 is assumed to be the level of NH 4 needed to completely neutralize SO 4 and NO 3 . During the winter this is likely an adequate assumption; during the warmer months, howev er, this may overstate NH 4 concentrations. The NH 4 evaluation should thus be cons idered qualitative, so only bugle plots are presented for NH 4 (Figure 6-7). The bugle plots suggest that NH 4 is overestimated, with the overestimation severe enough that the fractional bias and error exceed the model performance goal and the fractional bias exceed s the model performance criterion for CASTNet for several months.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

185 Figure 6-7. Monthly fractional bias (top) a nd fractional gross error (bottom) for the

CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case NH 4 model performance as a function of observed concentration.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

186 

### 6.2.4 Organic carbon (OC)
The CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case si mulation exhibits very different OC model performance across the IMPROVE and STN networks in th e WRAP states (Figur es 6-8 through 6-10). Whereas OC is overestimated across the IMPROVE sites, it is underestimated across the STN sites. We believe this is due to (1) higher OC c oncentrations at the more urban STN sites versus the more rural IMPROVE sites; and (2) differe nt OC measurement technologies, whereby the STN measurement technology is believed to understate OC and overstate EC.
During April 2002, a very high observed OC value occurs (~115 μg/m 3 ), which was traced to an observation on April 5 at Bryce Ca nyon. Unusually high EC (~17 μg/m 3 ) was also observed at this site on this day, suggesting that biomass burning may have contributed (e.g., wildfire or prescribed burn).
The time series of monthly fractional bias a nd error for the IMPROVE network are shown in Figure 6-9 and suggest a winter overestimation bias and summer underestimation bias for OC in the western US. Unlike SO 4 and NO 3 , where the 12-km modeling re sults showed higher concentrations than those obtained usi ng the 36-km grid, for OC the 36-km bias values are substantially larger than those obtained using the 12-km grid. In the summer, when the model underestimates, this results in improved OC model performance us ing a 36-km grid, whereas in the winter, when the model overestimates, OC model performance is worse using a 36-km grid. For example, in January and July the OC bias using the 36-km grid is 35% and 8%; th e corresponding values using the 12-km grid are 25% and -28%. The bugle plots using the 12-k m grid are shown in Figure 6-10 and suggest that the summer OC underestimation is a performance area of concern, whereas the winter overestimation occurs under conditions of lower OC levels so may not be as much of a concern.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

187 Figure 6-8a. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case si mulation OC model performance in the

WRAP states for January (top) and April (bottom) using the IMPROVE (left) and STN (right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

188 Figure 6-8b. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case si mulation OC model performance in the

WRAP states for July (top) and October (bottom) using the IMPROVE (left) and STN (right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

189 Figure 6-9. Monthly fractional bias (top) a nd fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case OC model performance across IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states. 

### Monthly Fractional Bias, IMPROVE-OC

-40 -30 -20 -10

0 10 20 30 40 50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFB (%) 12k 36k

Monthly Fractional Gross Error, IMPROVE-OC

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFE (%) 12k 36kFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

190 Figure 6-10. Monthly fractional bias (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case OC mo del performance as a function of observed concentration.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

191 

### 6.2.5 Elemental carbon (EC)
The EC performance (Figures 6-11 through 6-13) across the IMPROVE netw ork exhibits fairly low bias, without as strong a seasonal variation as was exhibited by the other species. For the STN network, EC tends to be overestimated durin g most months, although the bias is still low relative to the other species. As s een in the scatterplots and bugle plots, EC measurements at the IMPROVE sites tend to be fairly lo w, except when there are incursions of plumes from fires. As seen for OC, but in contrast to SO 4 and NO 3 , the CMAQ 12-km EC estimates are lower than their 36-km counterparts. For example, during th e first six months of 2002 the EC fractional bias for the IMPROVE monitoring sites is approxima tely –20% using the 36-km grid and approximately –30% using the 12-km grid (Figure 6-12). The bugle plots show that the EC concentrations are typically very low across the IMPROVE network, so that the model performance meets the expanding performance goal in the hor n of the bugle plot (Figure 6-13).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

192 Figure 6-11a. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case si mulation EC model performance in the

WRAP states for January (top) and April (bottom) using the IMPROVE (left) and STN (right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

193 Figure 6-11b. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case simulation EC model performance in the WRAP states for July (top) and October (bottom) using the IMPROVE (left) and STN (right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

194 Figure 6-12. Monthly fractional bias (top) an d fractional gross e rror (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case EC model p erformance across IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states. 

### Monthly Fractional Bias, IMPROVE-EC

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10

0 10 20 30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFB (%) 12k 36k

Monthly Fractional Gross Error, IMPROVE-EC

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFE (%) 12k 36kFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

195 Figure 6-13. Monthly fractional bias (top) and fractional gross error (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case EC mo del performance as a function of observed concentration.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

196 

### 6.2.6 Other fine PM (soil) and coarse mass (CM)
Figures 6-14 and 6-15 display scatterplots of pr edicted and observed othe r fine PM (soil) and coarse mass (CM), respectively, across the IMPROVE network in the western U.S. for the CMAQ 2002 36-km and 12-km pre02d base case simu lations. The time series of monthly bias and error for soil and CM are given in Figures 6- 16 and 6-17, respectively. Soil is overestimated in January by approximately 100%, with the bi as dropping almost linearl y to an underestimation bias of -33% (36-km) and -24% (12-km) in Apri l. The soil bias is then <±20% from May to September, when both the 36-km and 12-km base cases exhibit near zero bias. The soil bias then increases linearly from zero in September to ~80% in December. Unlike the other species, for soil the 36-km and 12-km performance statistics track each other very closely in the winter, early spring, and late fall, and in the summer the 12-k m results are lower than when a 36-km grid is used, resulting in slightly worse performance with the 36-km grid than the 12-km grid.
The performance for CM, on the other hand, exhi bits a severe underprediction bias throughout the year that is worse (exceeding -100%) in summer than in winter. The January-December CM fractional bias is approximately -40%; it then decreases as one moves toward summer, with the lowest fractional bias of approximately -120% (12-km) and -130% (36-km) occurring in JuneJuly. The reasons for the CM underestimation bias are unclear but are likely due to missing dust sources and subgrid-scale local dust impact s that are not simulated by the model.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

197 Figure 6-14. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case si mulation “other fine PM” (soil) model performance in the WRAP states for January (top left), April (top right), July (bottom left), and October (bottom right) using the IMPROVE monitoring network.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

198 Figure 6-15. CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case si mulation CM model performance in the WRAP states for January (top left), April (t op right), July (bottom left), and October (bottom right) using the IMPR OVE monitoring network.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

199 Figure 6-16. Monthly fractional bias (top) an d fractional gross e rror (bottom) for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case “other fine PM” (soil) model performance across the IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states. 

### Monthly Fractional Bias, IMPROVE-SOIL

-60 -40 -20

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFB (%) 12k 36k

Monthly Fractional Gros s Error, IMPROVE-SOIL

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFE (%) 12k 36kFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

200 Figure 6-17. Monthly fractional bias (top) an d fractional gross e rror (bottom) for the

CMAQ 2002 pre02d base case CM model performance across the IMPROVE sites in the WRAP states. 

### Monthly Fractional Bias, IMPROVE-CM

-140 -120 -100

-80 -60 -40 -20

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFB (%) 12k 36k

Monthly Fractional Gro ss Error, IMPROVE-CM

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthFE (%) 12k 36kFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

201 

### 6.3 Evaluation of CMAQ at Class I Areas for the Best-20% and Worst-20% Days
The 2007/2008 RHR SIP/TIP will be the first prog ress SIP/TIP that must demonstrate progress toward achieving natural conditi ons at Federally mandated Cl ass I areas by 2064. The 2000-2004five-year baseline is used as the starting point for the visibility projections, with the first futureyear progress demonstration year being 2018. Fo r the 2007/2008 SIP/TIP, vi sibility is projected at Class I areas for the worst-20% visibility days and the best-20% visibility days to achieve the following goals:

• demonstrate progress toward na tural conditions in 2064 for the worst-20% visibility days, and

• demonstrate no worsening in visibilit y conditions for the best-20% days.



### 6.3.1 Procedures for projectin g visibility improvements
Visibility is projected using modeling results in a relative fashion to scale the observed components of light extinction for the worst/best-20% days (U.S. EPA, 2001). The species-dependent and Class-I-area-dependent scali ng factors are referred to as rela tive reduction factors (RRFs). Although the exact procedures for projecting visibility are under going analysis and refinement and will depend on the amount of m odeling results available, the st eps that would be taken using 2002 annual CMAQ modeling results to project current-year to 2018 future-year visibility conditions would likely be as follows (U.S. EPA, 2001):

1. Identify the worst-20% and best-20% observed visibility days at each Class I area during each year within the 2000-2004 baseline.

2. Calculate the average CMAQ estimated concentrations of SO 4 , NO 3 , OC, EC, soil, and CM for the worst-20% days and the best-20% days (separately) fo r the 2002 “typical year base case” and the 2018 emissions scenario, th en calculate the speci es- and Class-I-areadependent RRFs as the ratio of average future to current year modeling results (2018/2002) across the observed worst- 20% or best-20% days from 2002.

3. Apply the model-derived RRFs for the worst- 20% days to the current observed concentrations at each Class I area for each of the worst-20% days from the years 2000-2004 to obtain projected 2018 PM species concentra tions for the worst-20% days from 2000- 2004.

4. Calculate visibility extinction from the 2018 projected concentrations for each of the observed worst-20% days from 2000-2004 us ing the reconstructed mass extinction equation and monthly-average Class-I-area-specif ic relative humidity adjustment factors.

5. Convert the 2018 projected daily average total visibility extin ction for each of the worst20% days from 2000-2004 to deciview (dV) a nd average across each year to obtain the five average 2018 deciviews for 2000-2004.

6. Average the five annual worst-20% 2018 decivi ews to obtain the five-year-average 2018 deciview.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

202 7. Repeat steps 3 through 6 for the best-20% days.

8. Compare the 2018 projected five-year average d eciviews with the visi bility progress goal for each Class I area.
The key modeling components used to project futu re-year visibility are the Class-I-area- and species-specific RRFs that are based on the mode l-estimated average concentrations for the worst-20% and best-20% observe d visibility days. Consequently, the CMAQ model performance for the worst-20% and best-20% days is very important.


### 6.3.2 Evaluation for best/worst-20% days
In this section we provide examples of the CM AQ model performance for extinction on the best20% and worst-20% visibility days during 2002. No te that in this eval uation we used results from the previous CMAQ Base Case C rather th an pre02d results. Base Case C is one iteration previous to the pre02d scenario, but since Base Case C produced model performance similar to pre02d’s (see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#pre02d ) our evaluation results provide insights to the CMAQ pre02d performance.
The evaluation was conducted by comparing the pr edicted and observed av erage extinction for each component of light extinc tion in the IMPROVE aerosol mass extinction equation using the Class-I-area-specific monthly relative humidity ad justment factors. The extinction is averaged across the worst-20% and best-20% obs erved visibility days during 2002.

6.3.2.1 Performance across IMPROVE si tes for average of worst-20% days
Figure 6-18 compares the predicted and observed ex tinction averaged for the worst-20% days at western U.S. IMPROVE sites for the six co mponents of light extinction due to SO 4 , NO 3 , OC, EC, soil, and CM. The model estimates th e observed average extinction due to SO 4 on the worst20% days fairly well, although there is an underestimation tendency when the observed extinction due to SO 4 is above ~15 Mm -1

.
At most of the IMPROVE sites the model exhib its little bias in the extinction due to NO 3 at western U.S. IMPROVE sites for the worst-20% days, although there is a lot of scatter. However, there do appear to be three sites where the m odel underestimates the average extinction due to NO 3 on the worst-20% days by a factor of 2 to 3 (Figure 6-18a, top right).
With the exception of one very la rge overestimation outlier, the extin ctions due to OC and EC on the worst-20% days appear to be reproduced reasonably well (Figure 6-18a, middle). The one outlier is the Kalmiopsis site, which was hi ghly influenced by fires during August 2002.
Extinction due to CM is understated by the mode l for the worst-20% days. However, both the model and observations indicate th at CM is a minor contributor to the total extinction on the worst-20% days. There do appear to be three predicted and observed CM extinction points for the average of the worst-20% days that stand out from the rest (F igure 6-18a, bottom left): (1) a point lying above the 1:1 line at around 10 Mm -1 predicted/observed value, which is Kalmiopsis; (2) a point with a 10 Mm -1 predicted and 20 Mm -1 observed, which is Phoenix; and (3) a point with about 2 Mm -1 predicted and 17 Mm -1 observed, which is Saguaro National Park.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

203 With the exception of the 40 Mm -1 point that is Kalmiopsis, the model and observations agree that soil is also a minor cont ributor to the extinction budget at IMPROVE monitors in the western U.S. during th e worst-20% days.

6.3.2.2 Performance across IMPROVE si tes for average of best-20% days
On the best-20% days (Figure 6-18b), the agr eement between the predicted and observed average extinction across the six species is not as good as it was for the worst-20% days. Extinction due to SO 4 , NO 3 , and OC is overstated for the average of the best-20% days. For around a half-dozen IMPROVE monitors, extinction due to OC, EC, a nd soil is greatly overstated on the average of the best-20% days, whereas extinction due to CM is generally understated at most monitors on the best-20% days.
6.3.2.3 Example predicted and obser ved Class I area extinction budgets for worst-20% and best-20% days
Figure 6-19 displays compar isons of predicted and observed stacked bar charts of total extinction averaged across the worst-20% days at several of the IMPROVE mon itors at Class I areas in the western U.S. These stacked bar charts are s hown without including Rayleigh background, which would add a constant 10 Mm -1 to all plots if it were incl uded. A comparison of the average predicted and observed extinction for the wo rst-20% days at Gra nd Canyon National Park (Figure 6-19a, top) reveals fairly good agreem ent with the total exti nction. Although extinction due to SO 4 and NO 3 is slightly underestimated, this is compensated for by slightly overstated extinction due to OC. However, the extinction du e to CM is greatly understated at the Grand Canyon for the worst-20% days.
Results for the average of the worst-20% days at Chiricahua National Monu ment in southeastern Arizona are not as good, with the observed total extinction of approximately 35 Mm- 1 underestimated by approximately a factor of 3 (Fi gure 6-19a, bottom). Every component of extinction for the worst-20% days is underestimated at Ch iricahua, with the undere stimation of extinction due to CM being over an order magnitude lower. We suspect that issues associated with the Mexican inventory, missing fugitive dust sources (e.g., windblown dust), and local impacts are contributing to the poor extinction performance at Chiricahua for the worst-20% days.

At Bandelier National Monument in north central New Mexico (F igure 6-19b, top), the total extinction on the worst-20% days is undere stimated by approximately 20% due to an understatement of the extin ction that is due to SO 4 , NO 3 , EC, soil, and especially CM. Extinction due to OC is overstated at Bandelier for the worst-20% days.
For Rocky Mountain National Park the total extinction fo r the worst-20% days is underestimated by approximately 35% (Figure 6-19b, bottom). Again, extinction due to SO 4 , NO 3 , EC, soil, and CM is understated, with the underestimation of th e extinction due to CM be ing about a factor of 10. The extinction due to OC is reproduced qui te well by the CMAQ Base Case C simulation at Rocky Mountain National Park for the worst-20% days.
At Yellowstone National Park (Figure 6-19c, top), the model overstates the total extinction on the worst-20% days by approximately 60% due to an overstatement of the extinction caused by OC and EC, where extinction due to these two components is oversta ted by a factor of 2 and 3,Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

204 respectively. Extinction due to soil is also overstated, although soil is a minor contributor to total extinction for the worst-20% days at Yellowstone. As seen at the other Class I areas, extinction due to CM is understated by the model.
At Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana, total extinction on the worst-20% days is understated by approximately 30%, with undere stimation of the extinction due to SO 4 , EC, and CM contributing the most to this bias (Figure 6-19c, bottom).
At Mount Rainier National Park (Figure 6-19d, top) the amount of extinction due to NO 3 is overestimated by the model by almost a factor of 5, resulting in a net overestimation bias for total extinction of 65%. Extinction due to OC and soil is also overstated, whereas extinction due to SO 4 and CM is understated at Mount Rainier for the worst-20% days.
The overstated OC and EC impacts at Kalmiops is (Figure 6-19d, bottom) due to the August 2002 fires in southwestern Oregon are clearly evident in the extinction budgets for the worst-20% days at this site. The observe d total extinction (187 Mm -1 ) is overestimated by a factor of 3 by the model (581 Mm -1 ). Even though Kalmiopsis has the highest observed total extinction of any site examined in Figures 6-19a-e, the model still greatly overstates it.
The final two IMPROVE sites with predicted and observed extinction comparisons for the worst20% days are Point Reyes and San Gorgonio in California (Figure 6-19e). The high NO 3 contributions in both the observed and estimated extinction budgets are cl early evident. At San Gorgonio the model estimates the extinction due to NO 3 reasonably well, overstates the extinction due to EC and OC, and understates it due to CM, resulting in a good agreement in total extinction for the worst-20% days (within 10%). At Point Reyes, however, the model underestimates extinction due to SO 4 and NO 3 by approximately a factor of 2, resulting in an understatement of to tal extinction by 33%.
Finally, Figure 6-20 presents two fairly typical examples of the CMAQ Base Case C extinction performance for the best -20% days. The model overstates total extinction at Grand Canyon and Yellowstone on the best-20% days by approximately a factor of 2, with overstated extinction due to SO 4 , NO 3 , and OC contributing to this bias. Clearly the model has difficulty in simulating the clearest-visibility days.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

205 Figure 6-18a. Comparison of predicted and obs erved average extincti on for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at IMPROVE monitors for SO 4 , NO 3 , OC, EC, CM, and soil. bNO3 (US)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 0 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm) bSO4 (US)

0 10 20 30 40 50

0 10 20 30 40 50 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm)

bOC (US)

0 80 160 240 320 400

0 80 160 240 320 400 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm) bEC (US)

0 40 80 120 160

0 40 80 120 160 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm)

bCM (US)

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5

0 5 10 15 20 25 O bs (bEXT 1/M m )CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm) bSOIL (US)

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

206

Figure 6-18b. Comparison of predicted and ob served average extinction for the best-20% visibility days in 2002 at IMPROVE monitors for SO 4 , NO 3 , OC, EC, CM, and soil. bSO4 (US)

0 3 6 9 12 15

0 3 6 9 12 15 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm bNO3 (US)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

0 5 10 15 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm

bOC (US)

0 5 10 15 20 25

0 5 10 15 20 25 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm bEC (US)

0 3 6 9 12 15

0 3 6 9 12 15 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm

bCM (US)

0 3 6 9 12

0 3 6 9 12 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/Mm bSOIL (US)

0 2 4 6 8 10

0 2 4 6 8 10 Obs (bEXT 1/Mm)CMAQ (bEXT 1/MmFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

207 Figure 6-19a. Comparison of predicted (righ t) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Grand Canyon (top) and Chiricahua (bottom) Class I areas. 0 5 10 15 20 25

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4 

## Grand Canyon NP, AZ

Chiricahua NM, AZFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

208 Figure 6-19b. Comparison of predicted (rig ht) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Bandelier (top) and Rocky Mountain National Park (bottom) Class I areas. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4 

## Bandelier NM, NM

Rocky Mtn. NP, COFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

209

Figure 6-19c. Comparison of predicted (righ t) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Yellowstone (top) and Glacier (bottom) Class I areas. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4 

## Yellowstone NP, WY

Glacier NP, MTFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

210 Figure 6-19d. Comparison of predicted (rig ht) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Mount

Rainier (top) and Kalmiopsis (bottom) Class I areas. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4 

## Mount Rainier NP, WA

Kalmio p sis, ORFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

211 Figure 6-19e. Comparison of predicted (rig ht) and observed (left) average extinction for the worst-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Point Reyes (top) and San Gorgonio (bottom) Class I areas. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4 

## Point Re y es , CA

San Gor g onio , CAFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

212 Figure 6-20. Comparison of p redicted (right) and observed (left) average extinction for the best-20% visibility days in 2002 at the Grand Canyon (top) and Yellowstone (bottom) Class I areas.



### 6.4 Conclusions of CMAQ 2002 pre02d 36-km and 12-km Base Case Model Performance Evaluation
Performance for the CMAQ 2002 pre02d 36-km a nd 12-km base case simulation for sulfate across the western states is reasonably good, albeit with a su mmer underestimation and winter overestimation bias; the biases in the sp ring and fall are near zero. The summer SO 4 underestimation bias affects the model performance for vi sibility for the worst-20% days. One of the biggest changes between the previous CMAQ Base Case C simulation and the new CMAQ 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Obs CMAQbEXT (1/Mm) bCM bSOIL bEC bOC bNO3 bSO4 

## Yellowstone NP , WY

Grand Can y on NP , AZFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

213 pre02d base case was the inclusion of the new MM5 meteorological modeling results (see Section 4). WRAP expended ex tensive effort finding a more optimal MM5 configuration for simulating meteorological conditions in the western U.S. In particular, a summer overestimation of the precipitation in the sout hwestern U.S. led to overstate d wet deposition and understated concentrations in previous CMAQ base cas e simulations. Figure 6-21 compares the SO 4 wet deposition across NADP sites in the WRAP states for the previous Base Case C and current pre02 2002 36-km CMAQ simulations. Usi ng the older MM5 meteorology, wet SO 4 deposition is overstated by Base Case C during these four months by 36%, 61%, 55%, and 57%. However, using the new MM5 meteorology, wet SO 4 deposition is understated for the same four months by smaller amounts: -25%, -15%, -38% and -34%; also, in each month this deposition exhibits lower bias and the same or lower error. The CMAQ 2002 pre02d 12-km simulation produced higher SO 4 concentrations than the 36-km simulati on. Comparisons of 36-km and 12-km wet SO 4 deposition were not available.
Nitrate performance exhibits a large winter overestimation and summer underestimation bias, with large errors thr oughout the year. During the summer th e model and observations both show low NO 3 values, so the NO 3 underestimation does not drastica lly affect visibility model performance for the worst-20% days. However, the winter NO 3 overestimation bias can affect performance the best-20% days. Th e 12-km base case produced higher NO 3 concentrations than the 36-km base case, resulting in slightly im proved model performance in the summer and slightly degraded model performance in the winter when a 12-km grid is used.
Organic carbon at the IMPROVE sites has a positive bias in the winter and near zero (36-km) or negative (12-km) bias in the summer. There we re large differences in the CMAQ OC performance using the 36-km and 12-km grids, with th e 12-km modeling results estimating lower OC than did the 36-km results. On at least one documented case of large fire impacts (August 2002 in southwestern Oregon), the model greatly overs tated the amount of both OC and EC at the monitors. Other than that, EC bias across th e IMPROVE sites was relatively low, with an approximately -20% (36-km) and -30% (12-km ) bias during the nonsummer months and bias <±20% during the summer.
Coarse mass was understated throughout the year, with the understateme nt greatest during the summer, late spring, and early fall, exceeding -100% for some months. Other fine PM (soil) was overstated in the winter (60% to 100%) and understated in the summer (0% to -40%).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

214 Figure 6-21. Comparison of CMAQ 2002 36-km pre02d and Base Case C wet SO 4 deposition model performance in the WRAP states for May (top left), June (top right), July (bottom left) and Se ptember (bottom right).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

215 

### 6.5 Status of Task 4 Deliverables
The table below gives the status of each Task 4 deliverable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliv erables agreed upon after th e work plan was prepared.

Table 6-2. Status of th e Task 4 deliverables.

Deliverable Status CMAQ pre02b (Base B) Base Case Performance Evaluation Posted January 2004: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#pre02b Comparison of CMAQ V4.3 with CMAQ V4.4beta model performance Posted June 2004: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#compare CMAQ pre02c (Base C) Base Case Performance Evaluation Posted July 2004: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#pre02c Comparison of CMAQ V4.4beta with final CMAQ V4.4 (October 2004 release) Posted November 2004: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#beta CMAQ pre02d (Base D) Base Case Performance Evaluation Posted January and April 2005: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#pre02dFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

216 

## 7. Task 5: Preparation and Reporting of Geographic Source Apportionment Results

7.1 Overview
A primary motivation for using air quality models is the attempt to identify the particular emissions sources that contribute to pollutant exposu re at a particular receptor site. This source attribution information can then be used to develop the most effective emissions reduction strategy for attaining air quality goals at that site.
A variety of modeling and data an alysis methods have been used to perform source attribution (also sometimes referred to as “source apportionme nt”). Model sensitivity simulations have been used in which a “base case” model simulation is performed and then a particular source is “zeroed out” of the emissions. The importance of that source is assessed by evaluating the change in pollutants at the receptor site, calculated as pollutant concentration in the sensitivity case minus that in the base case. This approach is known as a “brute force” sensitivity because a separate model simulation is required for each sensitivity.
Although sensitivity approaches are widely used a nd provide valuable information, they also have some disadvantages. For small sources, th e model used may lack sufficient numerical precision to represent the effect of the source at a receptor site. More importantly, the chemical reactions of some precursor species have a nonlinear dependence on ambi ent species concentrations and are subject to positive and negative feedback effects when a model input parameter is changed. Thus, the change in pol lutant concentration at a recept or site in the sensitivity case might not accurately reflect the contribution of that source to the receptor in the base case. The concern regarding nonlinear ity primarily affects NO x , O 3 , and nitrate, with a smaller effect on organic aerosols and sulfate. (Nonlinearity is no t a concern for nonreactiv e or slowly reacting species.) Another limitation of brut e force sensitivity approaches is that very large numbers of sensitivity simulations must be completed to de velop source attribution for all of the emissions source categories and source regions of interest. More efficient sensitivity approaches, e.g., the decouple direct method (DDM), are available for gas-phase sensitivities and are being developed for aerosols.
Mass-tracking approaches such as a tagged-species algorithm re present a second approach for performing source attribution. Mass-tracking approaches do not attempt to predict how the pollutant concentrations will change at a recepto r site; instead, they attempt to identify the mass contributions of each source to the pollutant at the receptor site in the base case model simulation. Thus, these mass-tracking approaches for performing source attribution have the potential to evaluate the cont ribution or “responsibility” for all sources in a single model simulation. These approaches have not been wide ly used in air quality modeling because of the complexity and difficulty of implementing a ma ss-tracking algorithm. A tagged species approach using tracers to track the contributions of partic ular emissions sources is probably the most easily implemented type of mass tracking approach. EP A has previously used tagged-species methodsFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

217 to do source attribution for su lfate in regional acid deposit ion modeling. ENVIRON’s CAMx model uses a source attribution algorithm for ozone (OSAT). ENVIRON has recently implemented a particulate source attribut ion algorithm in CAMx, known as PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT). It is still uncertain whether sens itivity approaches or source attribution approaches are more useful for attributing responsibil ity to emissions sources. It is likely that a combination of both approaches will be most useful for developing optimal emission control strategies. The key differe nce between the approaches is that source attribution estimates the contribution of a source to pol lutants at a receptor, while sens itivity simulations estimate the change in pollutants at receptor when an indivi dual source is change d by a particular amount.
During 2003 and 2004, UCR developed a new algorith m in CMAQ to assess source attribution. The Tagged Species Source Apportionment (TSSA ) algorithm uses a system of tracers or “tagged species” to track the chemical transforma tions, transport, and rem oval of emissions from particular source categories or so urce locations. This algorithm has been implemented and tested for NO x -NO z -nitrate chemistry, sulfate, and ammoni um. The algorithm was initially implemented in CMAQ version 4.2.2 using the Sparse-M atrix Vectorized Gear (SMVGEAR) gas-phase chemistry solver. During 2004 we implemented the TSSA algorithm in a beta release of CMAQ 4.4 and adapted it for use with a more computationally effici ent Quasi Steady State Approximation (QSSA) gas-phase chemistry solv er in CMAQ. The algorithm is written in Fortran 90 and supports multiprocessor usage. The results of this algorithm were first demonstrated at the WRAP Technical Workshop in Ja nuary 28-29, 2004, using the RMC’s preliminary 2002 modeling with CMAQ 4.2.2. In this secti on we describe the implementation of the algorithm and summarize results for modeling wi th the beta CMAQ 4.4 using the Pre02c 2002 simulation discussed in Section 5.
During the testing of the TSSA algorithm in CMAQ 4.4beta, we discovered significant mass conservation errors in the algorith m. These errors were likely th e result of a bug that affected mass conservation in CMAQ 4.4beta. However, it is also possible that the vertical advection algorithm in CMAQ introduces errors in mass c onservation in the TSSA algorithm. During 2004 we experimented with several different methods to handle probl ems with mass conservation in CMAQ. Nonetheless, large fractions of ma ss of PM species could not be attributed to the source categories. Additional development and testing of the TSSA algorithm are required. This effort is currently underway with separate funding from EPA using a new release of CMAQ 4.4 in which the mass conservation error was corrected.
Although there are concerns regarding the absolute mass attributions in the CMAQ TSSA results, comparisons with brute force sensitivity tests and alternate models have made us more confident that the relative mass attributions are correct. As noted above, a similar source attribution algorithm has been implemented in the CAMx model by ENVIRON. The CAMx PSAT was released in 2004 and uses a system of tracers similar to the system used in the TSSA algorithm to attribute particulate mass at receptor sites to emissions source categories or source regions. To compare CMAQ TSSA results with CAMx PSAT results, we performed CAMx PSAT simulations for two months: February a nd July, 2002. Results for both models are described in Section 7.3. The CAMx and CMAQ results are not directly comparable because updated versions of the emissions and meteor ology data were used in the CAMx PSAT simulation. However, we would e xpect the results to be generally similar, so the CAMx results provide a useful test to evaluate the usefulness of the CMAQ results.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

218 In summary, the CAMx PSAT results are gene rally consistent with the relative source attributions in CMAQ. However, the PSAT much more accurately accounts for the total mass of PM at receptor sites. In the CMAQ results large fractions of mass were e ither not attributed to emissions sources at some receptor sites or we re attributed to a combination of emissions categories, such as fires and ar ea sources, that were not individua lly tracked. Although work is in progress to develop a new version of the TSSA algorithm in CMAQ, we do not expect this to be completed in time for additional WRAP source attri bution studies in 2005. We therefore plan to complete additional source attribution simulatio ns in 2005 using the CAMx model with PSAT.



### 7.2 Description of TSSA Method

7.2.1 Initialization of tagged species
The CMAQ TSSA methodology uses ta gged species to track the te mporal evolution of emissions, chemical transformations, transport, a nd dispersion of mass across the model’s spatial domain. Tracers are defined for a subset of ke y chemical species and for certain predefined subregions and emissions source categories. In addition, tracers are included to represent mass contributions from the initial conditions (ICs) an d from transport into the model domain from the boundary conditions (BCs). The tracers are all in itialized with zero values, except for the IC tracer, which is identical to the initial species concentrations. Then , the tracer concentrations are updated at each model time step over the entire model simulation period.
For each species, the “bulk concentration” is defi ned to be the model-predicted concentration of the species for each grid cell. Thus, a three-dimens ional (3-D) array is required to represent the concentration of the bulk species. For the TSSA method, the source attribution requires the addition of one additional 3-D array for each source category or source region that is tracked by the algorithm. For example, if sour ce attribution is perf ormed for three emissions categories (e.g., point, mobile, and biogenic) and 10 different source regions (e.g., 10 different state or tribal areas), a total of 32 new 3-D tracers must be ad ded to represent the 30 combinations of source category and region plus the ICs and BCs. By defin ition, the sum of the tracers must always be identical to the bulk species conc entration because the tracers are defined to represent the sources that compose the bulk species, as shown in Equation 7-1: 

## ∑ + + = N

M j BC j IC j

n m j bulk C C C C ,

1
, 1 , (7-1)

where j represents the chemical species, m represents emissions source categories, and n represents geographical source regions.

The 3-D concentration fields for each tracer are ou tput at the same time interval (typically hourly) that is used for the CMAQ bulk concentration output files. Thus, trac er output files provide three-dimensional fields showing the time-varyin g contribution of each tagged source (where a “tagged source” is defined by the use of a set of tagged species to identify the contributions from that source) in all spatial re gions throughout the model domain. For example, Figure 7-1 showsFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

219 the 3-D concentration field for a tracer for aerosol nitrate attributed to California mobile-source emissions at 24:00 UTC on January 14, 2002.

Figure 7-1. Three-dimensional plot of aero sol nitrate attributed to California mobile-source emissions on January 14, 2002.

Currently, the tagged species implemented in CMAQ include the family of nitrogen model species, including NOX (the “reactive N” fam ily), HNO3, PAN, RNO3, ANO3I, and ANO3J. The reactive NOX species is defined as the sum of NO, NO2, NO3, 2*N 2O5, and HONO. We note that this definition of “big NOX” differs from the usual definition of NO x as the sum of NO and NO 2 . We use the expanded definition of big NOX because these short-lived, reactive forms of nitrogen are in fairly rapid chemical equilib rium, and we achieve a substantial computation cost reduction by using a single family to represent the sum of reactive N.



### 7.2.2 Definition of source regions
Tracers are defined for selected, predefined ge ographical regions. Source regions are defined by assigning a unique numeric code to the model gr id cells that compose each source area. TheFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

220 source region can be defined to be a single grid cell or any number of grid cells up to the total number of cells used in the sp atial domain. Typically, a source region is composed of a group of contiguous cells, but a source regi on could also be composed of noncontiguous cells. Figure 7-2a illustrates the TSSA regions for each state with in the WRAP 36-km modeling domain. In this figure, California is assigned the number 1, Nevada is assigned 2, etc. The entire source regions of Canada and Mexico are assigned the numeric c odes of 91 and 92, respectively. All U.S. states outside of the WRAP region ar e grouped together. The boundaries of California, Oregon, and Washington were extended westward so that o ffshore shipping would be included in the source attribution for those states. The map in Figure 7.2a is truncated, so portions of Canada, Mexico, and the easternmost U.S. states are not shown, but the full model domain is included in the algorithm.
The state and national boundaries can be only co arsely represented in this map because the resolution is limited by the 36-km grid used in the modeling. We assigned each grid cell to whichever state accounted for the largest area of the grid cell. Thus, emissions sources near political boundaries might be incorrec tly located in an adjacent state.
A 12-km grid definition would allow better repres entation of political bou ndaries. Alternatively, the digital map could easily be modified to change the sour ce region definitions by simply editing the numeric values in the ASCII text file that contains the source region definitions. For example, if a border cell is located primarily in California but includes a large point source located in Nevada, that grid cell could easily be reassigned to Nevada by changing the cell’s numeric code. The ASCII file can also be edit ed to define new source regions as needed.
Figure 7.2b shows the boundaries of the source regions used in the CAMx PSAT model. It appears that the boundaries are not always correct ly represented, possibly because of the map projection used. These should be ad justed in future simulations.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

221 000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 000000 0000444444444 4 0 4 4 4 4 4 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 000000 0000444444444 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 000000 0000444444444 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 11 11 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 000000 0000444444444 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 000000 0000444444444 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 91 91 91 91 000000 0000444444444 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 000000 0000444444444 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 000000 0000333333334 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 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11 11 11 11 11 11 000003 3333333333333 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000001 1111111133333 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000001 1111111111133 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000001 1111111111111 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000011 1111111111111 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000011 1111111111111 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000011 1111111111111 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000011 1111111111111 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000011 1111111111111 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000011 1111111111111 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 000011 1111111111111 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 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0 0 0 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Figure 7-2a. Source area mapping file as used in the CMAQ TSSA algorithm, with each source region distinguished by a unique numeric code.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

222 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 -1500 -1000

-500 0 500 1000

1 2 3 4

5

6

7 8 9 10 11 12

13

14 15

Figure 7 2b. Source area mapping file as used in CAMx PSAT showing the boundaries for each state/region.



### 7.2.3 Definition of source categories
The source categories include in itial and boundary conditions; indi vidual types of emissions sources, such as motor vehicles, point sources, area sources, and fires; and “other” sources, which include all sources other than those that are explicitly defined. Lumping all unassigned sources together in the “other” cat egory allows the total mass of tracers to be identical to the bulk species concentration, as required by Equation 7-1.
In the SMOKE/CMAQ modeling system, all emissions are merged into a single emissions file that is read by CMAQ. However, all information regarding the source categories is lost in this merging step. The TSSA method th erefore requires that emissi ons files be read by CMAQ for each individual emissions source category that is included among the tagged sources. Because of the file structure used in CMAQ, this can requir e a vast increase in disk storage cost for the emissions, because sparse data storage is not employed in the CMAQ emissions files.
Table 7-1 gives details on the ta gged-sources naming scheme that is used in the algorithm and displayed in some of the plots showing mode l simulation results. Source category codes in column 2 of the table are combined with two-lett er state abbreviations to create identifiers for particular source categorie s within a given state.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

223 Table 7-1. Combinations of source categories and geographic regions that are typically included in a TSSA simulation.

Types Source Category † Notes

ICON ICON Initial concentration BCON BCON Boundary concentration MV_* Mobile sources of any state BG_* Biogenic sources of any state RD_* Road dust of any state NR_* Nonroad dust of any state PN_* Point sources without SO 2 of any state PS_* Point sources with SO 2 of any state AR_* Area sources of any state WF_* Wildfire sources of any state AG_* Agricultural fire sources of any state RX_* Prescribed fire sources of any state MX_* Mexico fire ET_* Total emission of any state Emissions

*_WRAP Any type of emission of WRAP domain Others OTHERS Any sources other than those listed above

† The asterisks can be the two-letter state code for any state in the WRAP region (or for Canada [CN] or Mexico [MX]), or all states in the WRAP region.



### 7.2.4 Updating of tracers in CMAQ science algorithms
The CMAQ Chemical Transport Model (CCTM) is a three-dimensional, regional-scale, nonhydrostatic air quality model base d on the mass conservation equation to simulate transport, transformation, dry and wet deposition, and aerosol formation of pollutants. The governing equation can be rewritten in generalized coordinates wh ere the turbulent flux terms are expressed with eddy diffusion theory (further described in B yun and Ching [1999]). Through operator splitting, or the use of fractional time steps, modularity is achieved in CCTM and computationally efficient algorithms are applied to so lve each science process (e.g., a dvection, chemistry). The TSSA routine is implemented into each science proces s to account for the change in species concentration and update the tracer species accordingl y. Figure 7-3 illustrates the TSSA implementation in CCTM science processors. The TSSA routine checks for mass conservation at each advection time step and adjusts mass (renormalizes) if needed. The program will halt if large errors are detected during the mass conservation check.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

224 driver.F: read tssa configuration, ptssa_init ... do n = 1, nsteps tssa_couple

tssa_decouple write tssa output
end do sciproc.F Xadv Yadv Yadv Xadv Zadv Tssa Adjadv Hdiff Tssa Decouple Vdiff Tssa Cldproc Chem Tssa Aero Tssa Couple Hppm Tssa adv update vppm

Tssa hdiff update
Tssa vdiff update

smvgear Tssa chem update TSSA mass normalization driver.F: read tssa configuration, ptssa_init ... do n = 1, nsteps tssa_couple

tssa_decouple write tssa output
end do sciproc.F Xadv Yadv Yadv Xadv Zadv Tssa Adjadv Hdiff Tssa Decouple Vdiff Tssa Cldproc Chem Tssa Aero Tssa Couple Hppm Tssa adv update vppm

Tssa hdiff update
Tssa vdiff update

smvgear Tssa chem update TSSA mass normalization

Figure 7-3. Flowchart of the TSSA implementation in CMAQ’s CCTM.

The TSSA initialization stage ta kes place at the beginning of the model simulation. The tagged species are initialized with con centrations from the initial conditions input file. The TSSA algorithm also updates the tagged sp ecies at the boundary with co ncentrations from the boundary conditions input file.
The equation below is the mass continuity equation that defines the processes that are solved for in the CMAQ model. We added new computer c ode to CMAQ to track the changes in tagged species at each time step for each of the processes represented in the equation.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

225 The terms in this equation are summarized below:
a. Time rate of change in species concen tration g. Off-diagonal vertical eddy diffusion b. Horizontal advection h. Producti on or loss from chemical reactions c. Vertical advection i. Emissions d. Horizontal eddy diffusion (diagonal term) j. Cloud mixing and aqueous-phase chemical production or loss e. Vertical eddy diffusion (diagonal term) k. Aerosol process f. Off-diagonal horizont al eddy diffusion l. Plume-in-grid process



### 7.2.5 Postprocessing of TSSA results
The tracer output files can be immediately visu alized using the Program for the Analysis and Visualization of Environmental da ta (PAVE) and can also be convert ed into the format required by the Vis5D visualization software. This is usef ul for visualizing the transport of pollutants from a source across the model domain. However, the result of most interest is the source attribution at a particular receptor site. UCR has developed postprocessing software to read the 3-D TSSA output file and extr act data for a list of IMPROVE sites, and create bar plots and ASCII files showing the 20 larges t contributors at each site.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

226 The source attribution can be calculated as the attribution averaged ove r a 24-h period (to match the temporal resolution specified in the IMPROVE monitoring protocol) or for some other averaging period. In particular, UCR has developed so ftware to sort and identify for each receptor site the average source attribution for the best -20% and worst-20% visibility days, where the worst and best can be defined using either ambient IMPROVE data or model predictions.
Figure 7-4 shows an example bar plot created using the UCR postprocessi ng software. UCR also provides the ASCII data to Air Re source Specialists, another WRAP contractor, to develop other types of plots for displaying these results.

Figure 7-4. Example bar plot produced by UCR postprocessing software showing the largest 20 contributors to aerosol nitrate at a receptor site in the Grand Canyon. The x -axis labels are explained in Table 7-1.



### 7.2.6 Uncertainties in the TSSA results
While we have made considerable progress in developing and testing the TSSA algorithm in CMAQ, further work is needed. Most significantly , the algorithm should be implemented in the final release of CMAQ 4.4. The beta release contained a mass conservation error, which also introduced errors into the tracers used in the TSSA met hod. Although we experimented with a number of approaches for renormalizing to minimize the effects of mass errors, there are cases in which this introduces error term s into the TSSA algorithm that may accumulate over time. It is difficult to quantify the effect of these mass e rrors. In the current T SSA results for the 2002 modeling, we in some cases accumulated errors in the “other” category. The result of thisFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

227 approach was that attributions to “other” were ov erestimated and attributions to mass transport at the domain boundary were probably underestimated . However, we believe that we obtained useful information from these model results by evaluating the relative contributions of the various source and emissions ca tegories at each receptor site.



### 7.3 Source Attribution Modeling Results
During 2004 we completed three iterations of th e source attribution m odeling. Results were presented at WRAP Attribution of Haze Meetings in July, Se ptember, and November. These results represented three differe nt approaches used in the CM AQ TSSA algorithm to account for mass conservation errors. Specifically, we trie d two different algorithms to force mass conservation in the TSSA tagged species by renorm alizing the sum of the tagged species to be identical to the bulk species concentr ation at each step in the CMAQ model:

• We first used a proportional renormalization scheme in which lost mass was added to each tagged species proportionally to the mass of each tag within a given grid cell. This method failed in grid cells with very low concentrations.

• We then used an equal-weighting scheme where lost mass was added equally to all tagged species within a given grid cell. This scheme produced unrealistic source attributions, for example, when mass was added to tracers for the boundary conditions.
We also experimented with several variations and hybrids of these two schemes, but no approach gave satisfying results. In the end, we simply allocated lost mass to an artificial tag labeled “other” and tracked this separate ly. The relative source attributi on results were similar for each of these approaches, so we used the results in a re lative sense, i.e., to rank the importance of each emissions source at the receptor sites. Here we describe example plots for the results that we presented at the September 2004 Attribution of H aze meeting. Complete results are on the RMC web page (see http://www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#source ) and have also been further processed and reported by Ai r Resource Specialists.
Figure 7-5a shows an SO 4 concentration time series at the Ft . Peck IMPROVE site for part of July 2002. On July 2, the first day of the time-series, the model-simulated SO 4 was 0.5 μg/m 3

. Figures 7-5b and 7-5c show the CMAQ TSSA resu lts for this site on July 2 using the proportional mass renormalization scheme (Figure 7- 5b) and the method in which lost mass was attributed to an “other” category (Figure 7-5c). This site is repr esentative of the sites that had larger disagreements between the TSSA algorithms , in which even the relative ranking differed.
In Figure 7-5b, boundary conditions (bcon) were ra nked as the largest cont ributor, although this primarily represents the accumulation of mass e rror terms. Among the other source categories, point sources in the eastern U.S. and in North Dakota were ranked as th e largest contributors, followed by smaller contributions from point s ources in Canada and Washington and mobile sources in North Dakota and Wash ington. In Figure 7-5c, mass error terms were accumulated in the “other” tag, and point sour ces in North Dakota were ranked as the largest contributors, followed by contributions from point sources in the eastern U.S.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

228 Due to the uncertainty of the results from th e CMAQ TSSA algorithm, we also used the CAMx PSAT model to evaluate source attribution for Fe bruary and July of 2002. Figure 7-6a shows CMAQ TSSA results for SO 4 at the Grand Canyon IMPROVE site on July 2, 2002. Point sources from Nevada were the single largest cont ributor, followed by smaller contributions from point sources in Arizona and Mexico. Fi gure 7-6b shows CAMx PSAT results for SO 4 for the same site and date. Point sources from Nevada were again the single largest contributor, followed by smaller contributions from point sources in Mexico and Arizona. The similarity in the relative rankings and in the magnitudes of th e sources at the Grand Canyon site increased our confidence in the results of the CMAQ TSSA simulations.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

229 (a)

(b)

(c)

Figure 7-5. CMAQ source attribution results at the Ft. Peck IMPROVE site on July 2, 2002: (a) modeled and measured SO 4 concentrations; (b) TSSA results using proportional mass renormalization; (c) TSSA res ults with lost mass represented as “other.”Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

230 24-hr average contributions to SO4 at GRCA on 2002 182

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0All otherFir_COPts_UTMob_NVMob_CAANR_NMMob_MexMob_AZFir_UTPts_EstPts_NMPts_CAANR_CAANR_AZANR_MexANR_NVBCFir_AZPts_AZPts_MexPts_NV

PSAT Tracerug/m3 24-hr average contributions to SO4 at GRCA on 2002 182

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0All otherFir_COPts_UTMob_NVMob_CAANR_NMMob_MexMob_AZFir_UTPts_EstPts_NMPts_CAANR_CAANR_AZANR_MexANR_NVBCFir_AZPts_AZPts_MexPts_NV

PSAT Tracerug/m3

Figure 7-6. Source attribution results for SO 4 at the Grand Canyon IMPROVE site on July 2, 2002: (a) CMAQ TS SA results; (b) CAMx PSAT results.



### 7.4 Status of Task 5 Deliverables
Table 7-2 gives the status of each Task 5 deliv erable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliverables agreed upon after the work plan was prepared.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

231 Table 7-2. Status of th e Task 5 deliverables.

Deliverable Status
Source attribution report using emissions and meteorology data available in early May Because of problems with mass conservation in the CMAQ source code, we performed several iterations of CMAQ s ource attribution modeling. The final model simulations were completed in Oct ober 2004. Analysis products (bar charts showing source attribution at receptor sites) are available on the RMC web site, and ASCII results were provided to Ai r Resource Specialists for additional processing during September-October 2004. Plots for each receptor site are available here: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#source

Additional source attribution simulations with CAMx PSAT were completed for two months, February and July, to evaluate the CMAQ results. The CAMx PSAT source attribution results are available at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/mee tings/March_2005/03-08_09-05.SF_CA/ by clicking on Alternative_Model_Mar8-9_2005_MF_Meeting.ppt

Simulation interim results and final results were presented as PowerPoint files at three meetings of the Attribution of Haze work group (below) and at the WRAP Modeling Forum Meeting. See http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/meetings.shtml

.

• Attribution of Haze Meeting, July 21-22, 2004, Denver, CO

• Attribution of Haze Meeting, Nove mber 18-19, 2004 Las Vegas, NV:

UCR_TSSA_results_Nov_2004 (ppt)

• Attribution of Haze Meeting, Septem ber 22, 2004 Salt Lake City, UT: UCR TSSA Tracer Results (ppt files)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

232 

## 8. Task 6: Further Analysis of Model Performance in Regard to the Contribution of Natural Emissions to Visibility Impairment

In addressing the effects of regional haze on visi bility, estimating reasonable progress goals and formulating the associated control strategies re quire an understanding of how two types of emissions sources contribute to haze : natural sources, and non-U.S. background sources. To develop this understanding, it is important to identify the natural emissions sources that impact regional haze. Combining guidance provided by EPA, anal yses performed by other RPOs, publications in the primary literature, and the results of RMC modeling sensitivities, we have worked on identifying and quantifying the natural and non-U.S. background haze emissions sources in the WRAP region. This section summarizes the wo rk completed from March 2004 through February 2005 to further our understanding of these source s of haze and their potential impacts on model performance evaluations and control stra tegy development in the WRAP states.



### 8.1 Background
One of the first phases of developing regional ha ze control strategies involves identifying the various sources of haze. During 2003, we began reviewing work by othe r groups and performing modeling sensitivities to identify and quantify the contributions of different sources of haze to visibility impairment in the WRAP region. We performed brute-force emissions sensitivities to study the effects of biogenic and wildfire emissions on visibility in the WRAP states. These simulations, in which we eliminated all anthr opogenic emissions and included only biogenic and wildfire emissions, were insightful but somewhat incomplete in that the biogenic model did not include emissions estimates for some im portant sources, such as lightning NO x . Also, the boundary conditions in these simulations did not diffe rentiate between natura lly derived and anthropogenic sources of haze, which is important for dr awing conclusions about the influence of background haze on regional visibility. In addition to performing cursor y model simulations, we have leveraged regional haze guidance from EPA and re search completed by other RPOs to provide direction in identifying the resear ch needs for addressing visibility issues in the WRAP region.
The Draft Guidance for Estimating Natural Visib ility Conditions Under the Regional Haze Rule (U.S. EPA, 2001) helps regional ha ze planning efforts by establishi ng default approaches for estimating the natural visibility conditions in the Class I areas. Through descriptions on how EPA interprets baseline haze and asse sses visibility improvements, the guidance provides insight on what to consider when trying to identify natu ral and background sources of haze. Work by the VISTAS RPO (Tombach, 2004; Kumar, 2004; Br ewer, 2004) has pointed out problems and recommended possible refinements to the EPA a pproach for calculating baseline and natural conditions, identified the importance of backgr ound or transported haze to the model domain boundary, and suggested definitions of contro llable and uncontrollable haze sources.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

233 

### 8.2 Work Performed from Ma rch 2004 through February 2005

While the information sources cited above treat haze sources in general, they do not provide explicit direction concerning which emissions are classified as na tural emissions. During the past project year, the primary focus of our research fo r Task 6 was to clearly define the distinction between natural and anthropogenic emissions sources contributing to visibility impairment in the WRAP region. The RMC initiated the 2004 work with a draft memorandum identifying all potential sources of natural emissions in th e WRAP region (Tonnesen, 2004). A comprehensive literature review based on this memo identified sources of emission factors published in the primary literature and in techni cal reports in the past deca de (CEP, 2004b). These documents outline potential deficiencies in the current inve ntories and provide a basis for enhancing the WRAP emissions inventories to explicitly treat natural emissions sources in the future. To prepare for the development of refined WRAP emis sions inventories for addressing the issue of natural haze sources, the WRAP Emissions Foru m worked on characterizing natural versus anthropogenic emissions for va rious emissions sectors.

The RMC and several WRAP foru ms completed work in 2004 to identify the components of emissions sources that contribute to haze. The Fire Emissions Joint Forum worked to define natural versus anthropogenic fi res in their existing inventorie s (Randall, 2004b), and in September 2004 the RMC received a revised set of 2002 WR AP fire inventories applying this distinction for prescribed-fire emissions. (Wildfire emissi ons are defined as natu ral, and agricultural burning emissions are defined as manmade; pres cribed-fire emissions can be either.) After modeling these new fire invent ories in SMOKE, we conducted a CMAQ sensitivity to evaluate the impact of the natural fires on modeled visibi lity. We discuss the emissions preparation for these simulations in Section 5.4. The Dust Emi ssions Joint Forum is currently working on characterizing natural versus anthropogenic dust sour ces and will provide gu idance during the next project year on how to develop refined fugitive and windblown dust inventor ies that make this distinction. Exploratory work by the RMC has looked at adding s ea salt emissions, geogenic and volcanic emissions , and lightning NO x emissions to the WRAP 2002 modeling. In addition to emissions inventory refinements, we have in cluded boundary conditions derived from a global model (GEOS-CHEM) to better capture the temporal and spatial variation in the pollutants transported to the boundary of the WRAP modeling domain.
To enhance the representation of the background sour ces of haze, we integrated seasonally averaged 1° x 1° grid cell GEOS-CHEM (Park et al., 2003) modeled boundary conditions representing calendar year 2001 into the preliminary 2002 simula tions. We used 2001 GEOS-CHEM results because they were readily available during the time frame in which we performed this modeling; we anticipate replaci ng them with 2002 data when they become available. These temporally and spatially resolved bound ary conditions better capture se asonal variations in pollutant transport impacting the United States.



### 8.3 Next Steps
Upcoming work will focus on finalizing the definition of what sources constitute natural emissions sources and on integrating refinements to the WRAP inventories for distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic sources. During th e next project year we anticipate receivingFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

234 fugitive and windblown dust inventories that are sp lit to identify the natural components of these emissions. We will also work on integrating missing natural emissions sources into the 2002 modeling, such as lightning NO x , sea salt, and geogenic emissions . With the creation of these refined and new emissions inventories, the RMC will continue the simulation and analysis of air quality model sensitivities to assess the cont ribution of natural emissions to visibility impairment.



### 8.4 Status of Task 6 Deliverables
Table 8-1 gives the status of each Task 6 deliv erable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliverables agreed upon after the work plan was prepared.

Table 8-1. Status of th e Task 6 deliverables.

Deliverable Status Natural emissions inventory Partially complete . Natural versus manmade fire inventories became available in September 2004; still need emissions for other categories (e.g., dust, marine, geogenic). CMAQ simulation with natural emissions Partially complete. Simulations are underway to study the effects of the natural versus manmade fires; will complete when other natural emissions s ources are modeled (see above). Report describing natural emissions research and CMAQ simulations A literature review of natural emissions sources was completed in August 2004; will complete this deliverable in 2005.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

235 

## 9. Task 7: Evaluation and Comparison of Alternative Models

Under this task, the RMC was directed to apply an alternative air quality model and compare its results to those from CMAQ. Th e Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions (CAMx) (ENVIRON, 2004) was selected as the alternative model. CAMx is currently being applied as the primary model by MRPO and is also bei ng used by VISTAS as a secondary model to corroborate and serve as a diagnos tic tool for the CMAQ results. CENRAP is currently applying the CMAQ and CAMx models in parallel and has not yet decided whether one will be a primary and the other a secondary model. Thus, it may be important for WRAP to familiarize themselves with CAMx in order to interpret othe r RPOs’ modeling procedures and results.
Under Task 7 the RMC applied CAMx for February and July 2002 on the 36-km grid, and compared CAMx’s performance with that of CMAQ. In addition, the CAMx PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) was configured in a way that is similar to CMAQ’s TSSA source attribution algorithm (see Section 7) and the two PM s ource attribution schemes were compared for February and July 2002.



### 9.1 Advantages in Operating Multiple Models
Although CMAQ is the primary air quality mode ling system being used by WRAP, there are many advantages in applying and evaluating altern ative models. All models have uncertainties and limitations. By applying multiple models, we obtain more confidence in the results and also obtain an estimate of the uncertainties in the modeling. During the CY02 work efforts, WRAP applied and evaluated the CMAQ, REMSAD, and CAMx models for 1996. The three models generally exhibited similar performance, both good and bad. CAMx was operated in both a twosection mode and a multisection mode whereby secondary PM (e.g., sulfate and nitrate) was allowed to grow into the coarse (i.e., PM 2.5-10 ) mode; CMAQ, on the other hand, assumes that all of the secondary PM is in the fine mode. The CA Mx model estimated that a vast majority of the secondary PM was in the fine mode, a finding that strengthened the credibility of CMAQ’s assumption and therefore the confidence in its results. Thus, WRAP has already received some benefits from applying multiple models.
EPA’s guidance on model selection for PM 2.5 SIPs / TIPs and regional haze reasonable progress demonstrations does not identify a preferred photochemical grid modeling system, recognizing that at present there is “no single model which has been extensively tested and shown to be clearly superior or easier to us e than several alternatives” (U.S . EPA, 2001, pg. 169). The agency recommends that models used for PM 2.5 SIPs / TIPs or regional haze reasonable progress demonstrations should meet the requirements for alternative models. The CMAQ, CMAQ-MADRID (Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ioni zation, and Dissolution) , CMAQ-AIM (Aerosol Inorganic Module), and CAMx modeling sy stems all meet these requirements.
We believe that there may be significant value in including multiple modeling systems in the WRAP modeling analysis. Our te sting and comparisons of the CMAQ and CAMx models forFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

236 WRAP, VISTAS, and other recent PM 2.5 /regional haze applications demonstrate that the models are capable of producing results of comparable accuracy and reliability, and having results from CAMx as well as CMAQ has many benefits. For example:

• Diagnosis: To serve as an efficient diagnostic tool for addressing model performance issues that may arise in the establishment of the a nnual 2002 base case. CMAQ and CAMx both include process anal ysis that can help diagnose model performance. CAMx’s suite of diagnostic probing tools and its flexi- nesting algorithms make it an attractive tool for assisting in the diagnosis of model performance.

• Model Evaluation Corroboration: To provide corroboration of the base case model performance evaluation exercises to be perfor med with the two models, and help identify any compensatory errors in the modeling systems.

• Emission Control Response Corroboration: To provide corroboration of the response of a modeling system to generic and specific fu ture-year emissions changes on modeled gasphase and particulate aerosol concentrati ons and resultant regional haze impacts.

• Quantification of Model Uncertainty: To provide one estimate of the range of uncertainty in the annual and episodic base case simulations, and in the estimates of PM 2.5 and visibility reductions associated with future emissions-change scenarios.

• Alternative Science: CAMx and CMAQ contain alternat ive science algorithms that may elucidate model performance issu es with one model or the other or provide an alternative approach for simulating aerosols.

• Consistency with Other RPOs: MRPO may end up using CA Mx for their regional haze modeling. The CENRAP states are curren tly using both CMAQ and CAMx. As sources in the MRPO and CENRAP regions likely infl uence visibility at Class I areas in the WRAP region, and vice versa, having result s from both models would be useful for reconciling any differences.

• Backup Contingency: To provide a “backstop” model in the event that unforeseen difficulties with the primary model occur.
The benefits of employing a pair of complementary state-of-the-science air quality models are thus quite significant and well worth the extra effort. Note that these two particular models can be applied without performing any additional mete orological or emissions modeling, because the same MM5 output (through MCIP2.3 and MM5 CAMx) and SMOKE output and CMAQ IC/BC files (through CMAQ-to-CAMx emi ssions and IC/BC converters) ca n be used to operate both CMAQ and CAMx.



### 9.2 Description of the CAMx Modeling System

9.2.1 Overview
The CAMx modeling system is a publicly available ( http://www.camx.com ), three-dimensional, multiscale photochemical-aerosol grid modeli ng system that ENVIRON developed and isFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

237 maintaining. CAMx was developed with all ne w code during the late 1990s using modern and modular coding practices. This has made the mode l an ideal platform for extension to treat a variety of air quality issues, including ozone, PM, visibility, acid deposition, and mercury and other air toxics. The flexible CAMx framewor k has also made it a convenient and robust host model for the implementation of a variety of mass balance and se nsitivity analysis techniques, including process analysis (Integr ated Reaction Rates [IRR] and In tegrated Process Rates [IPR]), the decoupled direct method (DDM), and the Ozone Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT). Designed originally to address multiscale ozone issues from urban to regional scales, CAMx has been widely used in recent years by a variety of regulatory agencies for 1-h and 8-h ozone and PM 10 SIP / TIP modeling studies, as well as by several RPOs for regional haze modeling. Key attributes of the CA Mx system include the following:

• Two-way grid nesting that supports multiple leve ls of fully interactiv e grid nesting (e.g., 36/12/4/1.33 km);

• Carbon Bond IV (CB-IV) or Statewide Ai r Pollution Research Center (SAPRC-99) chemical mechanisms;

• Two chemical solvers, the CAMx Chemical Mechanism Compiler (CMC) Fast Solver or the highly accurate Implicit-Explicit Hybrid (IEH) solver;

• Multiple numerical algorithms for horizontal transport, including the Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM), Bott, and Smolarkiewicz advection solvers;

• A sub-grid-scale plume-in-grid algorithm to treat the near-source plume dynamics and chemistry from large NO x point-source plumes;

• The ability to interf ace with a variety of meteorologica l models, including the MM5 and RAMS prognostic hydrostatic meteorologi cal models and the CALMET diagnostic meteorological model (others are also compatible);

• The OSAT ozone attribution technique, which identifies th e ozone contribution due to geographic source regions and source categ ories (e.g., mobile, point, biogenic);

• The DDM sensitivity method, which is implem ented for emissions and ICs/BCs to obtain first-order sensitivity coefficien ts for all gas-phase species; and

• Treatment of PM using an empirical aerosol thermodynamics algorithm.
Culminating extensive model de velopment efforts at ENVIRON and other participating groups, the CAMx (ver 4.11s) code was released in au tumn 2004 as a truly “one-atmosphere” model that rigorously integrates the gas-pha se ozone chemistry with the si mulation of primary and secondary fine and coarse particulate aerosols. This extension of CAMx to treat PM involved the addition of several science modules to represent important physical processes for aerosols. Noteworthy among these are the following:

• Two separate treatments of PM. The Mech anism 4 (M4) “one-atmosphere” treatment uses two size sections and science modules comparable to CMAQ’s (e.g., the Regional Acid Deposition Model [RADM] aqueous-pha se chemistry and ISORROPIA equili-Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

238 brium). The multisection “full-science” approa ch uses aerosol modules developed at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU).

• Size distribution is represented using the Multicomponent Aerosol Dynamics Model (MADM), which uses a sectional approach to represent the aerosol particle size distribution (Pilinis et al., 2000) . MADM treats the effects of condensation/evaporation, coagulation, and nucleation upon th e particle size distribution.

• Inorganic aerosol thermodynamics can be re presented using the ISORROPIA (Nenes et al., 1998, 1999) equilibrium approach with in MADM, or a fully dynamic or hybrid approach can be used.

• Secondary organic aerosol thermodynamics are represented using the semivolatile scheme of Strader and coworkers (1999).

• Aqueous-phase chemical reactions are m odeled using either the RADM module (as CMAQ does) or the Variable Size-Resolu tion Model (VRSM) of Fahey and Pandis (2001), which automatically determines whethe r water droplets can be represented by a single “bulk” droplet-size mode or whether it is necessary to use fine and coarse dropletsize modes to account for the different pH effects on sulfate formation.
CAMx (ver 4.11s) provides two key options to users interested in simulating PM. For CPUefficient annual PM modeling applications, CA Mx can be run using M4 with only two size sections (fine and coarse) and the efficient RADM bulk aqueous- phase module (as is used in CMAQ). Alternatively, more rigorous aerosol simu lations (perhaps for shorter episodes) can be addressed using the version that treats N size sections ( N is typically 10) and the rigorous, but computationally intensive, CMU multis ection aqueous-phase chemistry module.



### 9.2.2 PM Source Apportio nment Technology (PSAT)
PSAT has been developed for CAMx to provide geographic and source-c ategory-specific PM source attribution (Yarwood et al., 2004). PM so urce attribution information from PSAT is useful for:

1. understanding model performance and ther eby improving model inputs/formulation,
2. performing culpability assessments to identify sources that contribute significantly to PM pollution, and

3. designing the most effective and cost -effective PM control strategies.
Source attribution for primary PM is relatively si mple to obtain from a ny air pollution model, because source-receptor relationships are essentia lly linear for primary pollutants. Gaussian steady-state models and Lagrangi an puff models have been used extensively to model primary PM pollution from specific sources, which pr ovides source attribution. The Gaussian and Lagrangian approaches work fo r primary PM because the models can assume that emissions from separate sources do not interact. This assumption breaks down for secondary PM pollutants (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, secondary orga nic aerosol), so puff models may dramatically simplify the chemistry (to eliminate interactions between sources) when they are applied toFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

239 secondary PM. Eulerian photochemical grid mode ls are better suited to modeling secondary pollutants because they account for chemical in teractions between sources. However, these models do not naturally provide source attributio n because the impact of all sources has been combined in the total pollutant concentration. PS AT has been developed to retain the advantage of using a grid model to describe the chemistr y of secondary PM formation and also provide source attribution.
Like the CMAQ TSSA algorithm discussed in Se ction 7, the CAMx PSA T source attribution uses reactive tracers (or tagged species), which are extra species added to a grid model to track pollutants from specific sources. For example, a st andard grid model calculates concentrations for a species X that has many sources, and the concentration of X is the total concentration due to all sources. A reactive tracer ( x i ) is assigned to each source ( i ) with the intention that the sum of the reactive tracer s will equal total concentration ( X

= ∑ x i ). The challenge is to develop numerical algorithms for solving th e reactive tracer concentrations that ensure this equality is maintained. Depending upon the formulation of the tracer algorithms, it may be possible to model tracers for a single source of interest a nd omit tracers for all other sources, or it may be necessary to include tracers for all sources (as is the case for PSAT). Re active tracers can potentially provide true source attribution ( X

= ∑ x i ); however, the numerical value of the source attribution will depend upon assumptions within the reactive tracer fo rmulation. In particular, for any process that is nonlinear in species concentr ations (e.g., chemistry), there is no unique way to assign the total concentration change to the reactive tracers. The rese archers at ENVIRON and UCR have separately and independently implemented the PSAT and TSSA PM source attribution approaches into CAMx and CMAQ, respectively. A comparison and evaluation of these two PM source attribution methods is warranted.
MRPO is using the CAMx PSAT to address their requirements to identify whether Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART)-e ligible sources contribute to visi bility impairment at Class I areas (see http://www.ladco.org/tech /photo/photochemical.html ). The MRPO BART PSAT application demonstrates the usefulness of thes e techniques for satisf ying regulatory modeling requirements.



### 9.3 Approach for Testing and Evaluation of Alternative Models
CAMx was set up on the same RP O Unified Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain used for CMAQ modeling. The CAMx modeling was conduc ted for February and July 2002 using the latest 2002 MM5 simulations that are discussed in Section 4. We used the MM5CAMx processor to generate the CA Mx-ready meteorological inputs from the WRAP final 2002 36-km MM5 simulation. The CAMx ICs/BCs and em issions were generated from the CMAQ inputs using the CMAQ-to-CAMx IC/BC and emissions processors. The CAMx model simulations used a 15-day spin-up period that started on Janua ry 16 and June 15 for the February and July 2002 runs, respectively. Although approximately 45 days were simulated for each of the monthly applications, only the last ~30 days were analyzed in the model performance evaluation. CAMx was applied using the 2002 pre02d Base D base case emissions and evaluated against measurements; the model performance was compar ed with CMAQ’s. Since one of the objectives of this work was comparison of the CAMx PSAT and CMAQ TSSA PM source attribution approaches, a beta version of the CAMx Ve rsion 4.20 (V4.20beta) that includes the PSATFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

240 algorithm was used in the analysis . This version of the model is going through its final testing and evaluation and will soon be made available on the CAMx website ( www.camx.com ), and is currently publicly available on request.



### 9.4 Comparative Evaluation of the CAMx and CMAQ Models

The CMAQ and CAMx models were evaluated us ing speciated PM measurements from four separate air quality monitoring networks:

• IMPROVE

• CASTNet;

• STN

• SEARCH

Because some of these networks use different averaging times (IMPROVE and STN collect 24- hour samples, whereas CASTNet collects weekly samples) and measurement technologies, the two models were evaluated separately for each ne twork. Note that differences in measurement technologies can result in differences in measured speciated concentrations comparable to model performance objectives. For example, a comp arison of the IMPROVE and STN measurement technologies using collocated sample s found differences in sulfate (SO 4 ) and organic carbon (OC) as high as 20% and 50%, respectively (Solomon et al., 2004).
The comparative evaluation of the CMAQ and CA Mx models for February and July 2002 was conducted for all monitors in the United St ates (U.S.) and for five subregions:

• Monitors in the WRAP Western states

• Monitors in the CENRAP Central states

• Monitors in the MRPO Midwestern states

• Monitors in the VISTAS Southeastern states

• Monitors in the MANE-VU Northeastern states
In the discussion below we present re sults for the entire United States.



### 9.4.1 Evaluation for Sulfate (SO 4 

### )
Figure 9-1 compares the CM AQ and CAMx sulfate (SO 4 ) model performance at sites across the U.S. from the IMPROVE, CASTNet, STN, and SEARCH monitoring networks. Sulfate model performance for July 2002 for the two models (Figure 9-1a) is generally quite good, with fractional bias <±10% and fracti onal error of 30-40%. The excep tion to this is the SEARCH network in the Southeastern U.S., where both mode ls exhibit a slight overestimation tendency of 17% (CMAQ) and 25% (CAMx) and errors of approximately 50%.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

241 For February 2002 (Figure 9-1b), both m odels generally ex hibit a slight SO 4 overestimation tendency, with the CAMx overestimation tendency be ing greater than CMAQ’s. For example, for the IMPROVE monitors in February 2002, CMAQ and CAMx produce fractional bias values of 26% and 41% and fraction error values of 49% and 56%, respectively.



### 9.4.2 Evaluation for Nitrate (NO 3 

### )
Comparisons of the CMAQ and CAMx nitrate (NO 3 ) model performance for February and July 2002 are shown in Figure 9-2. NO 3 model performance for both models is fairly poor, exhibiting summer underestimation and winter overest imation tendencies. The summer NO 3 underestimation is more severe in CMAQ than in CAMx, whereas the winter NO 3 overestimation is more severe with CAMx than CMAQ. The winter over estimation tendency is of more concern, given that NO 3 can be is a higher fraction of the fine particulate in the winter on some days.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

242 Figure 9-1a. Comparison of CMAQ (red) and CAMx (blue) SO 4 model performance at sites across the U.S. for July 2002 using th e IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and SEARCH (b ottom right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

243 Figure 9-1b. Comparison of CMAQ (red) and CAMx (blue) SO 4 model performance at

sites across the U.S. for February 2002 us ing the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and SEARCH (bottom right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

244 Figure 9-2a. Comparison of CMAQ (red) and CAMx (blue) NO 3 model performance at sites across the U.S. for July 2002 using th e IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and SEARCH (b ottom right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

245

Figure 9-2b. Comparison of CMAQ (red) and CAMx (blue) NO 3 model performance at

sites across the U.S. for February 2002 us ing the IMPROVE (top left), CASTNet (top right), STN (bottom left), and SEARCH (bottom right) monitoring networks.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

246 

### 9.4.3 Evaluation for organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC)
Figure 9-3 compares the CMAQ a nd CAMx OC and EC model pe rformance at IMPROVE sites across the U.S. for February and July 2002. Bo th models exhibit a similar fractional bias underestimation for OC for July 2002 of -34% a nd -39% and fractional errors of 83% and 63% for CMAQ and CAMx, respectively. OC performa nce for the two models in February 2002 is also very similar except the bias is toward overes timation, with fractional bias values of 30% and 33% and fraction errors of 63% and 65% fo r CMAQ and CAMx, respectively. EC model performance for July 2002 differs between th e two models, with CMAQ exhibiting a -16% underestimation and CAMx exhibiting a +16% ov erestimation fractional bias, and the CAMx fractional error (57%) being slig htly lower than that for CMAQ (68%). For February 2002, however, CMAQ exhibits a lower EC fractional bi as of -4% whereas the CAMx value is 47%, and the CMAQ fractional error (60%) is slight ly lower than is seen for CAMx (69%).



### 9.4.4 Evaluation for other PM 2.5 

### (soil) and coarse mass (CM)
The soil and CM model performance across the U.S. IMPROVE monitors for CMAQ and CAMx for February and July 2002 are shown in Figure 9- 4. The soil species is overestimated by both CMAQ and CAMx for July (17% and 62%) and fo r February (102% and 136%). This overestimation is expected, as the modeled species mapped to the IMPROVE soil measurement contains other unidentified compounds, whereas the IM PROVE soil measurement is built up from the elements. In fact, the usual application of th e CAMx model is to model the fine and coarse crustal PM separately from the other unidentified PM components so that the crustal PM can be compared directly against the IMPROVE soil measurement. When CAMx treats dust emissions as separate crustal species, much better soil performance is seen. However, since the CAMx emissions for this application were generated from the CMAQ emissions using the CMAQ-toCAMx processor and CMAQ does not separately treat the soil species, CAMx could not be configured with the separate fi ne and coarse crustal species.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

247 Figure 9-3. Comparison of CMAQ (red) and CAMx (blue) OC (left) and EC (right) model performance at sites across the U.S. for July 2002 (top) and February 2002 (bottom) using the IMPROVE monitoring network.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

248 Figure 9-4. Comparison of CM AQ (red) and CAMx (blue) soil (left) and CM (right) model performance at sites across the U.S. for July 2002 (top) and February 2002 (bottom) using the IMPROVE monitoring network.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

249 

### 9.5 Comparison of the PSAT and TSSA PM Source Attribution

In Section 7, results from the TSSA PM s ource attribution algorithm implemented in CMAQ were described and presented. In this section we compare those source attribution results with results from the CAMx PSAT scheme.
Currently CMAQ TSSA is capable of providing source attribution for SO 4 , NO 3 , and primary PM particle species and rela ted gaseous compounds (e.g., SO 2 and NO x ). The CAMx PSAT is capable of providing PM source attribution for the following families of species:

• SO 4

• NO 3

• NH 4

• Primary PM, which includes EC, primary organic carbon (POC), PMFINE, and PMc

• SOA (secondary organic aerosols)

• Hg (mercury)
For the WRAP February and July 2002 PSAT application, only the SO 4 family of PM source attribution was specified.



### 9.5.1 CAMx PSAT PM Source Attribution Configuration
CAMx PSAT was applied for February and July 2002 using a configuration similar to the one used in the CMAQ TSSA source attribution modeling.

Both TSSA and PSAT obtain PM source attribution for user-d efined source groups. Source groups typically consist of ge ographic source regions combined with source categories—for example, elevated-point-source emissions in Ariz ona. Figure 9-5 displays the geographic source regions used in the TSSA and PSAT source attri bution modeling. These regions are defined in Table 9-1.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

250 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 -1500 -1000

-500 0 500 1000

1 2 3 4

5

6

7 8 9 10 11 12

13

14 15

Figure 9-5. Geographic source regions used in the PSAT and TSSA PM source attribution modeling.

Table 9-1. Definitions of the geographic sour ce regions used in the TSSA and PSAT source attribution modeling. Region Definition Region Definition Region Definition 1 California (CA) 6 Utah (UT) 11 Montana (MT) 2 Nevada (NV) 7 Arizona (AZ) 12 North Dakota (ND) 3 Oregon (OR) 8 New Mexico (NM) 13 South Dakota (SD) 4 Washington (WA) 9 Colorado (CO) 14 Eastern States (East) 5 Idaho (ID) 10 Wyoming (WY) 15 Mexico/Canada/Ocean (Mex)

For the CAMx PSAT source attribution modeling, the emissions inventory was split into the following major source categories:

• Biogenic sources (Bio)

• On-road mobile sources (Mob)

• Point sources (Pts)

• Fires (Fir)

• Area plus nonroad mobile sources (ANR)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

251 Thus, the CAMx PSAT application was configured with 15 geographic regions and five source categories. Adding in the ini tial conditions (ICs) and boundary c onditions (BCs) that are always included in the CAMx PSAT source attribution, th is results in a total of 77 source groups that tracked PM source attribution in PSAT (15 x 5 + 2 = 77).


### 9.5.2 Differences in TSSA and PSAT Configurations
The PM source attribution algorithms in PSAT and TSSA were developed independently from one other, so they would be expected to produce similar, but not exactly the same, results. In addition, there were some differences in the way the two schemes were configured that will also produce results differences.
One of the biggest differences between the PSAT a nd TSSA source attribution schemes is that in PSAT all emissions in the domain must be account ed for by the source groups. In TSSA, on the other hand, only a portion of the emissions inventor y can be tagged, emission sources that are not tagged are collected in an “Other” category. This “Other” category also includes mass conservation errors and mass adjustments desi gned to ensure mass consistency in the CMAQ model. After the completion of the CMAQ TS SA modeling using CMAQ Version 4.4beta in 2004, a mass conservation error was discovered in the CMAQ vertical transport algorithm; it was subsequently corrected in the final version of CMAQ Version 4.4. The mass conservation error, along with the CMAQ mass adjustment, can accumulate in the TSSA “Other” category, resulting in its being a large contributor to PM source attribution. As CAMx does not have similar mass conservation errors or the mass adjustment operato r, all PM is accounted for and allocated to the source groups. Two differences in the way the TSSA and PSAT s ource attribution schemes were configured for the source attribution tests were as follows:

• TSSA modeled on-road and nonroad mobile sources as one source group (mv), whereas PSAT modeled on-road mobile sources (mob) and area plus nonroad sources (ANR) as separate source groups.

• TSSA did not track separate source attributi on for fires (fir) and ICs/BCs, whereas CAMx did. Thus, TSSA accumulated any SO 4 source attribution due to fires and BC in the “Other” category.



### 9.5.3 Source Attribut ion Modeling Results
We present TSSA and PSAT source attribution modeling results for a few IMPROVE sites/Class I areas and days from the February and July 2002 modeling periods. These Class I areas and days were selected to illustrate the similar ities and differences between the TSSA and PSAT PM source attribution approaches. Figure 9-6 shows the locations of the Class I areas (actually, IMPROVE and IMPROVE protocol sites) where PM source attri bution was obtained. Example results are presented below for the following sites:

• GRCA – Grand Canyon National Park in northwestern ArizonaFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

252 • FOPE – Fort Peck in northeastern Montana

• RMHQ – Rocky Mountain National Pak in central Colorado

• SALM – Salmon in eastern-central Idaho



### -2000 -1750 -1500 -1250 -1000 -750 -500 -250 0 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1000

GUMO1 ORPI1

CHIR1 SAGU1 SAWE1 SAAN1 GICL1 QUVA1

SACR1 AGTI1

WHIT1 PHOE1 TONT1 BOAP1 BALD1 JOSH1 TR

SIAN1 SAGO1 SAGA1

IKBA1 HILL1 RAFA1

WIMO1 PEFO1 SYCA1 DOLA1 ME1

BAND1 GRCA2 MEAD1

SAPE1 GRCA1 GRCA1HS

INGA1 INGA1HS

ELLI1 PINN1

SEQU1
DEVA1

CHER1 WHPE1 MEVE1 KAIS1

ZION1 BRCA1

WEMI1 YOSE1

GRSA1

HOOV1

CAPI1 CARE1

TALL1 CANY1

CEBL1 ARCH1 SOLA1 BLIS1

GRBA1

WHRI1 WHCL1 ROMO1 RMHQ1 LOPE1

STPE1 MOZI1 LAVO1

WAUB1 TRIN1

BRLA1 NOPL1 REDW1

HALS1 LABE1

JARB1

WALT1 KALM1 CRLA1

NIOB1 BRID1 CRMO1

BLMO1 WICA1 SCOV1

BADL1 SAWT1 THSI1

CLPE1 1 YELL2
THBA1 NOAB1 HECA1 SALM1 STAR1 MOHO1

NOCH1 COGO1 CORI1

SULA1 WHPA1 MORA1

GAMO1

THRO1 MONT1 SNPA1 PUSO1

ULBE1 SPOK1 CABI1 OLYM1

FLAT1 PASA1

MELA1 FOPE1 GLAC1

LOST1 NOCA1

Figure 9-6. Locations of IMPROVE monito ring sites in the western U.S. where the TSSA and PSAT PM source attribution approaches were compared.

Figures 9-7 through 9-9 display three ex ample comparisons of TSSA and PSAT SO 4 source contributions to sulfate at GRCA for July 1, July 7, and February 1, 2002. July 1, 2002 (Figure 9-7) was the worst visibility day at GRCA duri ng 2002. Both TSSA and PSAT agree that point sources from Nevada (Pts_NV) ar e the largest contributor to SO 4 at GRCA on this day, although the PSAT Pts_NV SO 4 contribution is over tw ice that of TSSA. Th e TSSA second largest contributing category is “Other” (described in Se ction 9.5.2). TSSA and PSAT agree that point sources from Arizona and “Mexico” (i.e., Me xico, Canada, and Ocean) are the next most important contributors, but then the rankings of the source contri butions begin to deviate fromFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

253 each other. PSAT estimates that fires from Arizona and boundary conditions (BC) are the next most important categories, whereas in TSSA thes e contributions are assumed to reside in the “Other” category. Both source attribution scheme s estimate that mobile sources from NV, AZ, and CA make contributions in the TSSA mv category (on-road plus nonroad mobile sources) and the PSAT ANR category (area plus nonroad mobile ); because on-road mobile sources use lowsulfur gasoline, most of the SO 2 emissions in the TSSA mobile sources mv category come from the nonroad mobile-source sector , suggesting that the TSSA mv and PSAT ANR contributions are being driven by the same source category and so are consistent.
July 7, 2002, was the 15 th worst visibility day at the Grand Canyon in 2002. The SO 4 contributions from TSSA and PSAT (Figur e 9-8) exhibit more differences than were seen for July 1. Whereas PSAT estimates that point sources from Nevada (Pts_NV) are the largest contributors to SO 4 at GRCA on this day, the TSSA “Other” categ ory is by far the largest contributor (over 3 times larger than the Pts_NV contribution). This “Other” category consists of untagged sources, such as BCs and possibly fires, and mass errors/c orrections in CMAQ. Based on this category’s dominant contribution, the mass conservation errors in CMAQ must have accumulated to a large amount on this day. Although the rankings are a little different between the two source attribution methods, they agr ee that point sources and nonroa d sources from AZ, NV, CA, and Mex are the major contributors to SO 4 at GRCA on July 7, 2002.
February 1, 2002, was the cleanest visibility day at the Grand Canyon during 2002. The TSSA and PSAT SO 4 contributions are shown in Figure 9-9. Both source a ttribution techniques agree that point sources from Utah are the largest contributor to SO 4 at GRCA on this clean day. Whereas PSAT estimates that BCs are the next largest contributor, TSSA estimates that the “Other” category is next largest. In fact, looki ng at the cleanest days at other Class I areas across the western U.S., TSSA almost always estimates that the “Other” category is one of the largest contributors. This likely occurs because the BC contri bution is included in the “Other” category and because the mass conservation and adjustment te rms are a relatively larger share of the total SO 4 mass under cleaner conditions. Although the two source attri bution methods differ on the rankings of the remainder of the sources, they bo th agree that point sour ces from more distant states to the northwest of GRCA (suc h as OR, ID, and WA) contribute to SO 4 at GRCA on this cleanest day of 2002. This is consistent with the Clean Air Corridor c oncept that the cleanest days at GRCA occur when winds are out of the northwest.
Up at the Fort Peck, MT (FOPE) site, July 4 was the 6 th worst visibility day at FOPE during 2002. TSSA and PSAT both estima te that different source gr oups contribute to the SO 4 concentrations than is the case at GRCA (Figur e 9-10); this is expected, given their different geographic locations. Both source attribution methods agree that point sources from North Dakota (Pts_ND) contribute the most to SO 4 at FOPE on this day, although the PSAT Pts_ND contribution is almost twice that of TSSA. The two methods also agree th at the next three source groups contributing to SO 4 at FOPE on July 4 are much smaller and are due to nonroad emissions from ND and MT and point sources ea st of the WRAP states. Again the TSSA “Other” category is the sec ond largest contributor to SO 4 at FOPE on this day. Since PSAT suggests that most of the signifi cant contributions at FOPE are due to identified sources that are tagged in the TSSA run (i.e., not fires or BCs), this suggests that the “Other” category at FOPE on this day is due primarily to mass conserva tion errors and the mass adjustment terms.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

254 The SO 4 contributions at Rocky Mount ains National Park (RMNP) on July 1, 2002, estimated by TSSA and PSAT are shown in Figure 9-11. This was the worst visibility day at RMNP during 2002. If fires are included in the TSSA “Oth er” category, then TSSA and PSAT exhibit good agreement in the source contributions to SO 4 at RMNP on this day, w ith fires from Utah and Colorado having significant cont ributions along with point sour ces in CO, NV, and UT and nonroad sources in CO and CA.

The TSSA and PSAT SO 4 contributions at the Salmon, Ida ho (SALM) site in eastern ID are shown in Figure 9-12. With the exception of th e large “Other” contribu tion in TSSA and the BC contribution in PSAT, the two source attributi on methods agree on the to p contribution sources groups (i.e., point sources in OR and WA and nonroad sources in OR, WA, ID, and MT). Examining the BC and fire contributions to SO 4 at SALM estimated by PSAT does not explain the TSSA highest “Other” contribution, sugges ting that the mass conser vation errors and mass adjustment terms in PSAT have a large influence on the SO 4 predictions at SALM on July 1.



### 9.5.4 Conclusions on PM Source Attribution
The comparisons of the CMAQ TSSA and CAMx PSAT PM source attribution modeling results for SO 4 for February and July 2002 were confounded due to the presence of the TSSA “Other” category, which includes untagged source terms, such as BCs and fires, and the accumulation of mass conservation errors and the CMAQ mass adjustment term designed to insure mass consistency. The PSAT SO 4 source attribution accounts for all so urces in the region, so there are no untagged sources and the CAMx model is formul ated without a mass adjustment step. It is unfortunate that the WRAP CMAQ TSSA mode ling used Version 4.4beta of CMAQ that was later found to have mass conservation errors in th e vertical transport algorithm; this has been fixed in the final Version 4.4 of CMAQ. Ev en with the confounding in fluence of the TSSA “Other” category, the SO 4 contributions from TSSA and PSA T were generally consistent in identifying the same top contributors to SO 4 across the western U.S.
Until the relative magnitudes of the contributions of untagged sources, mass conservation errors, and mass adjustment terms in the CMAQ TSSA “O ther” category can be resolved, the TSSA PM source attribution should be vi ewed qualitatively. As the CAMx PSAT PM source attribution does not suffer these limitations, it can be viewed in more quantitative terms.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

255 24-hr average contributions to SO4 at GRCA on 2002 182

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50All otherFir_COPts_UTMob_NVMob_CAANR_NMMob_MexMob_AZFir_UTPts_EstPts_NMPts_CAANR_CAANR_AZANR_MexANR_NVBCFir_AZPts_AZPts_MexPts_NVug/m3

Figure 9-7. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PS AT (bottom) sulfate source attribution at Grand Canyon National Park on July 1, 2002 (day 182).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

256 24-hr average contributions to SO4 at GRCA on 2002 188

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20All otherPts_WAFir_NMANR_ORFir_AZFir_UTMob_MexPts_NMMob_CAFir_CAANR_NVPts_UTMob_AZBCANR_AZANR_MexPts_CAANR_CAPts_AZPts_MexPts_NVug/m3

Figure 9-8. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PS AT (bottom) sulfate source attribution at Grand Canyon National Park on July 7, 2002 (day 188).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

257 24-hr average contributions to SO4 at GRCA on 2002 032

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12All otherMob_ORMob_WAPts_COMob_UTANR_IDPts_MexANR_AZMob_AZANR_WAANR_ORPts_WAANR_MexPts_ORPts_WYPts_IDPts_NMANR_UTPts_AZBCPts_UTug/m3

Figure 9-9. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PS AT (bottom) sulfate source attribution at Grand Canyon National Park on February 1, 2002 (day 32).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

258 24-hr average contributions to SO4 at FOPE on 2002 185

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70All otherPts_UTPts_NVPts_WAMob_MTPts_IDBCFir_MTANR_WYFir_UTANR_MexFir_WYPts_COANR_EstANR_SDPts_MTPts_WYPts_EstANR_MTANR_NDPts_NDug/m3

Figure 9-10. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PSAT (bottom) sulfate source attribution at Fort Peck, Montana on July 4, 2002 (day 185).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

259 24-hr average contributions to SO4 at RMHQ on 2002 182

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30All otherMob_CAANR_AZPts_AZPts_NMANR_UTFir_CAANR_MexANR_NVMob_COPts_WYBCPts_MexPts_CAANR_COANR_CAPts_UTFir_COPts_NVPts_COFir_UTug/m3

Figure 9-11. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PSAT (bottom) sulfate source attribution at Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, on July 1, 2002 (day 182).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

260 24-hr average contributions to SO4 at SALM on 2002 182

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12All otherFir_WAPts_CAANR_MexANR_CAFir_ORPts_MexPts_IDPts_MTMob_WAFir_IDMob_ORMob_MTMob_IDANR_MTANR_WAANR_IDPts_WABCANR_ORPts_ORug/m3

Figure 9-12. Comparison of TSSA (top) and PSAT (bottom) sulfate source attribution at Salmon, ID, on July 1, 2002 (day 182).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

261 

### 9.6 Status of Task 7 Deliverables
Table 9-2 gives the status of each Task 7 deliv erable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliverables agreed upon after the work plan was prepared.

Table 9-2. Status of th e Task 7 deliverables.

Deliverable Status Acquisition of the CMAQ TSSA results, latest 2002 MM5 data, and Pre02d emissions Completed January 2005 Initial testing and evaluation of CAMx and comparison of the CAMx PSAT and CMAQ TSSA PM source attribution techniques To be completed March 2005 PowerPoint presentation at WRAP Modeling Forum meeting (available at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/ 308/meetings/March_2005/03-08_09- 05.SF_CA/Alternative_Model_Mar8-9_2005_MF_Meeting.ppt ) To be completed March 2005Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

262 

## 10. Task 9: Testing and Further Improvements to the Windblown Dust Emissions Modeling Methodology

10.1 Introduction
The WRAP area-source emissions inventory currently does not include fugitive windblown dust because of strong concern that the methodology previously used to calculate these particulate emissions yielded inaccurate and misleading re sults. WRAP has funded a task under which the RMC is addressing this lack of windblown dust emissions. The task objective is to develop a model and inventory of PM dust emissions fr om wind erosion. We documented our fugitive windblown dust methodology and results from Phase I of this task in a final report (ENVIRON, 2004a) and technical memoranda (Mansell, 2003a,b) . Many of the assumptions employed in the Phase I methodology were related to a lack of deta il in the underlying data used to characterize vacant land use types and soil conditions. In ad dition, the Phase I methodology relied on arbitrarily assigned threshold friction velo cities and dust reservoir charac teristics. The results of the initial model runs and subsequent sensitivity simu lations demonstrated a need to revise and/or update various assumptions associated with th e development of the emissions inventory.
We are currently in Phase II of the task, duri ng which we have developed a general Phase II estimation methodology for PM dust emissions fr om wind erosion. Various approaches for refining and enhancing the exis ting version of the windblown dust model were presented and discussed in Mansell et al. (2004b). These refinements focus primarily on improving the determination of surface friction velocities and threshold friction velocities, as well as the calculation of dust emission fluxes. We also considered the char acterization of the disturbance level of vacant land parcels. La nd use datasets to more accurately characterize vacant lands were identified for use in the revised dust emission es timation methodology. In a ddition, we identified a number of studies for review, and incorpor ated algorithms and methodologies from these studies, as appropriate, into th e revised windblown dust model.
Section 10.2 briefly summarizes the Phase I me thodology, assumptions, and shortcomings, and discusses the literature review conducted for Phase II. The methodologies, assumptions, and data sources for the Phase II revised windblown dust model are document ed in Section 10.3. Results for calendar year 2002 are presente d and discussed (Section 10.4), as are preliminary results of an initial model performan ce evaluation (Section 10.5).



### 10.2 Summary of Phase I Method ology and Phase II Literature Review
10.2.1 Summary of Phase I methodology
The development and implementation of the Phase I windblown dust model, including various assumptions incorporated in the estimation methodology, have been documented previouslyFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

263 (ENVIRON, 2004a, 2003a,b; Mansell, 2003a,b). Th e estimation method that was ultimately implemented in Phase I is referred to as the MacDougall method (see ENVIRON [2004] for more details). In summary, it relies on the characterization of vacan t land use types and soil conditions, and numerous assumptions regarding dus t reservoir characteristics. Wind erosion is initiated in the model based on an arbitrary wi nd speed assignment, independent of surface conditions. Emission factors, or dust fluxes, were derived from limited wind tunnel study results as a function of wind speed and soil text ure. Adjustments were applied to the resulting emission rates based on the vegetation density of vacant land parc els. Surface disturbance levels were based on land use types. In addition, adjustments were ap plied for agricultural lands based on nonclimatic factors. Land use characterization was based on BELD3; soil texture was derived from the STATSGO database.

The relative lack of detail in the datasets used for characteri zing the physical conditions of land parcels and soils required a num ber of assumptions to be em ployed in the methodology. These assumptions are presented and discussed in detail in Mansell (2003b) and Mansell et al. (2004a). The primary assumptions affecting the mode l results can be summarized as follows:

• Threshold Wind Velocity: The threshold wind velocity is assumed to be 20 mph, independent of land use and soil texture.

• Vacant Land Stability: The methodology relies on specifica tion of the stability of vacant land parcels. The stability characteristic s are based solely on the land use type.

• Dust Reservoirs: The amount of erodible soil available for suspension into the atmosphere for a given vacant land parcel is referre d to as the reservoir. Reservoir properties are based on the stability characteristics of land parcels, and determine the duration of dust events. Limited reservoirs emit dust fo r a shorter time than unlimited reservoirs. Assumptions are made concerning the amount of time a reservoir will emit windblown dust. Also assumed are the re servoir recharge intervals.

• Rain, Snow, and Freeze Events: Assumptions are included that determine the time intervals after which land parcels will emit dus t following precipitation, snow, and freeze events. These assumptions greatly affect the number of wind even ts treated in the methodology as well as the total dust emissions generated.

• Vegetation Density: The percentage of ve getative, or canopy, cover is determined by the general land use category of vacant land parc els. These percentages are constant for a given land use type. Estimated emission factor s, or emission rates, are attenuated based on the assumed canopy cover percentage.
The above assumptions have a number of implicati ons with respect to th e estimation of fugitive dust from wind erosion. However, in many cases the data necessary to address these issues for a regional-scale domain are lacking. These issues a nd their implications ar e discussed in Mansell et al. (2004a). Phase II of the windblown dust task , documented in this sec tion, seeks to address these assumptions and limitations and impr ove the overall estimation methodology and dust model implementation.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

264 

### 10.2.2 Review of recent literature

A number of windblown dust studie s have been identifie d in the literature and are summarized below with respect to the algorithms and physical parameters considered . These studies are compared with each other and summa rized in regard to improving the model application for the Phase II dust study. A more detailed comparison of the salient features of each of the windblown dust emission estimation methodologies is presented in Mansell et al. (2004a).

10.2.2.1 Recent dust emission models
Draxler et al. (2001) constructed a regional model for estimating PM 10 from windblown dust using the concept of threshol d friction velocity, which is dependent on the aerodynamic roughness length of the surface, z 0 . PM 10 vertical mass flux was calculated using the Marticorena et al. (1997) algorithm. The flux is a function of wind velocity, threshold wind velocity, and a coefficient that relates the su rface soil texture to PM 10 emissions. Emissions start when the friction velocity is greater than the threshold friction velocity at that height. Friction velocity was calculated as a function of z 0 . Threshold friction velocity is calculated as the ratio of the threshold velocity for a smooth surface ( u *ts ) to the effective friction velocity ( f

eff

). Marticorena and Berg amette (1995) define f eff

as the ratio of friction velocity fo r a smooth surface to actual fricti on velocity. To determine this ratio, the aerodynamic roughness length for a smooth surface ( z 0 s )—which is defined as the mean soil particle diameter ( D p ) divided by 30 (Greeley and Iver sen, 1985)—is divided by the actual aerodynamic roughness length. Soil samples were co llected from the modeled area to determine D

p . The value for z 0 s was calculated using the measured D p . Using a mean value of 22 cm/s for

u *ts , the actual threshold friction velocity was ca lculated for different values of aerodynamic roughness length.
Using images of the area, a map of surface conditions and geomorphology, and the u *t data from the Mojave Desert (Gillette et al., 1980, 1982), the authors estimat ed the threshold friction velocity and surface roughness length for each surface classification. The coefficient that relates the surface soil texture to PM 10 emissions was estimated using data for several soils from semi-arid areas (Gillette et al., 1997) showi ng the ratio of vertical flux of PM 10 to total horizontal mass flux as a function of friction velocity.
In their work, Draxler et al. (2001) considered a special case of windbl own dust. Land with vegetative cover has a relatively high threshold velocity and was not considered as an emission source. Two types of soil surface conditions we re considered: loose undisturbed soil and disturbed soil. All the area was considered dry and therefore the effect of rain and snow was not considered.
Zender et al. (2003) developed a Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model for studying dust-related processes at both loca l and global scales. They consid ered three major factors that affect the dust flux: wind friction velocity, ve getation cover, and surface soil moisture content. The approach developed by Marticorena and Bergam ette (1995) was used to develop the model. For computing the threshold fricti on velocity they used a semi-empirical equation developed by Iversen and White (1982). In this equation, the friction velocity is a function of soil density andFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

265 particle size, and air density and kinematic viscosity. A constant surface roughness length of 0.01 cm was assumed for the entire domain.
The change in threshold friction velocity wa s calculated using the equation developed by Marticorena and Bergamette (1995), similar to what Draxler et al. (2001) used in their model. Zender et al. used one global value of 0.0033 cm for the roughness length for a smooth surface. The effect of moisture content of the surface soil was considered in the Zender et al. model. A threshold moisture content was calculated as a function of the mass fraction of clay, as adopted from Fécan et al. (1999). Land covered by vege tation was not consider ed as a dust-emitting

source.

The vertical mass flux was calcula ted as a function of the horizontal mass flux, a global tuning factor, a source erodibility factor, the fraction of bare soil, and th e fraction of clay mass. The horizontal mass flux was calculated as a function of fri ction velocity and thres hold friction velocity.
Shao (2001) developed an emission flux model as a function of the horizontal mass flux, threshold friction velocity, and an empirical function of the diameters of saltating and emitted particles. In his work, Shao emphasized the micr oscale forces working on saltating particles and the impact of these particles on dust emissions. In this model, a particle size distribution of the soil is required.

10.2.2.2 ENVIRON/RMC model

The “ENVIRON/RMC model” refers to the estimation methodology proposed by the RMC’s Phase I fugitive windblown dust task team a nd documented in ENVIRON (2003a). Based on a review of wind tunnel studies, we noted that the two important components for characterizing dust emission process from an erodible surface ar e (1) the threshold fr iction velocity, which defines the inception of the emission process as a function of the wind speed and as influenced by the surface characteristics; and (2) the streng th of the emissions that follow the commencement of particle movement. The two critical factors affecting emission strength are the wind speed (wind friction velocity), which drives the saltation system, and the soil characteristics.

10.2.2.2.1 Threshold friction velocities
The methodology relies on the determination of threshold surface friction velocities, u *t , as a function of aerodynamic surface roughness length, z 0 . In addition to aerodynamic roughness, the degree of disturbance of the surf ace also plays a key role in es timating threshold friction velocities. Based on the work of Marticoren a et al. (1997), relationships between u *t and z 0 were identified and compared with wind tunnel data fr om Gillette et al. (1980, 1982), Gillette (1988), and Nickling and Gillies (1989). This comp arison is presented in Figure 10-1.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

266 u *t = 0.31e 7.44 x (Zo)

R 2 = 0.60

u *t = 0.30e 7.22 x (Zo)

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1

z o (cm)u*t(m s-1)

wind tunnel data Marticorena et al. 1997 Expon. (wind tunnel data) Expon. (Marticorena et al. 1997)
Figure 10-1. Comparison between (1) the Marticorena et al. (1997) modeled relationship of threshold friction velocity and aerodynami c roughness length and (2) wind tunnel data from Gillette et al. (1980, 1982), Gillette (1988), and Nickling and Gillies (1989).]

Several general relationships can be described for threshold friction velocity data. Two major factors have the greatest influe nce on the threshold of wind-erodi ble soils: the de gree of disturbance and the aerodynamic roughness. For loose or di sturbed soils, the most important factor controlling the threshold friction velocity is aerodynamic roughness. The effect of surface disturbance on threshold friction velocity has been evaluated and documented by others (Gillette et al., 1980,1 982; Gillette, 1988; Nick ling and Gillies, 1989). For a give n surface type, the effect of disturbance is to lower the threshold to betw een ~90% and ~20% of the undisturbed value.
Applying the relationship shown in Figure 10-1 to assign a threshold fricti on velocity to a surface requires information on a surface’s aerodynamic roughness length. This type of information is not generally available in land use databases, because they were not specifically developed to quantify aerodynamic properties of surfaces. Base d on the designation of land use type, the aerodynamic roughness can be assigned using previ ously reported values for similar surfaces.

10.2.2.2.2 Emission factors
Field and wind tunnel experiments suggest that the dust emissions are proportional to wind friction speed and approximate theoretical model pr edictions, but the considerable scatter in the available data makes it impossible to clearly de fine this dependence (Nickling and Gillies, 1993).Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

267 Different surfaces appear to have different cons tants of proportionality for the flux versus wind friction velocity relationship, implying that the fl ux is predictable, but that surface and soil properties affect the magnitude of the flux. A deta iled discussion of wind tunnel studies, including various limitations and measured data, is provi ded in ENVIRON (2003a,b). The findings of the various wind tunnel studies ar e briefly summarized here.
Alfaro et al. (2003) re-analyzed the Nickling and Gillies (1989) data and found that the tendency of a surface to emit dust does not depend primaril y on its textural qualities, but instead on the size distribution of the loose so il aggregates available for sa ltation, and the aerodynamic roughness length that conditions the emission threshold. The re-analysis was based in part on the work of Chatenet et al. (1996) in whic h they found that desert soils coul d be broadly divided into four populations based upon their soil aggregate populati ons. The differences between the four groups are based upon the estimated geometric mean diamet er of the soil particles. The four size classes are 125 mm, 210 mm, 520 mm, and 690 mm, which they label FSS (silt), FS (sandy silt), MS (silty sand), and CS (sand). The emission fl ux relationships are displayed in Figure 10-2.

FFS F = 2.45 x 10 -6 (u * ) 3.97

FS F = 9.33 x 10 -7 (u * ) 2.44

MS F = 1.243 x 10 -7 (u * ) 2.64

CS F = 1.24 x 10 -7 (u * ) 3.44

0.000000001 0.00000001 0.0000001 0.000001 0.00001

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Friction Velocity (m s -1 )Emission Flux (F, g cm-2s-1) FSS FS MS CS Power (FSS) Power (FS) Power (MS) Power (CS)

Figure 10-2. The emission flux as a function of friction velocity predicted by the Alfaro and Gomes (2001) model constrained by the four geomet ric-mean-diameter soil classes of Alfaro et al. (2003).

Using the Alfaro et al. (2003) a pproach, emissions of dust for so ils can be confined to four different emission factors, depe nding on the geometric mean grain size, as determined by theFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

268 methods of Chatenet et al. (1996). The model pr edictions were tested against the wind tunnel dataset of Nickling and Gillies ( 1989) and found to fit the measured data satisfactorily. Of key importance is that Chatenet et al. (1996) establ ished relationships between the 12 soil types that are defined in the classical soil texture triangl e and their four dry soil types (FSS, FS, MS, and CS). The soil texture categorization and the re lationships among texture assignments and soil groupings are discussed in Section 10.3.7.2.



### 10.3 Phase II Windblown Dust Emission Estimation Methodology

We found that all of the dust m odel applications we reviewed (Section 10.2.2), including the ENVIRON/RMC methodology, utilize a similar approach for determining threshold friction velocities and dust emission flux rates. With each particular application, certain simplifying assumptions are incorporated. These assumptions are generally required because there is not enough detailed information to full y characterize physical conditions and parameters of erodible surfaces.
The Phase II dust model implementation follows the same general approach as the ENVIRON/RMC methodology origina lly proposed by the RMC team during the Phase I work effort and the other models discussed above, butwith improvements. The approach for determining and applying each of the required elem ents of the model is presented below.



### 10.3.1 Friction velocities

Surface friction velocities are determined from the aerodynamic surface roughness lengths and the 10-m wind speeds from the MM5 mode l simulations. Friction velocity, u * , is related to the slope of the velocity versus the natural l ogarithm of height thr ough this relationship:

o * z
z z ln 1

u u

κ =

where

u z = wind velocity at height z (m s -1 )

u * = friction velocity (m s -1 )

κ = von Karman’s constant (0.4)

z 0 = aerodynamic roughness length (m)



### 10.3.2 Threshold friction velocities

The threshold friction velocities, u *t , are determined from the relationships developed by Marticorena as a function of the aerodynamic surface roughness length, z 0 . This relationship was presented in Figure 10-1.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

269 

### 10.3.3 Surface roughness lengths
Surface friction velocities, including the threshol d friction velocity, are a function of the aerodynamic surface roughness lengths. The surface roughness lengths are in turn dependent on surface characteristics, particularly land use/land cover. While these values can vary considerably for a given type of land, published data ar e available that provide a range of surface roughness lengths for various land use types and vegeta tion covers. Table 10-1 su mmarizes the assignments of surface roughness for each land cover t ype considered for wind erosion. Other land cover types were not considered erodible due to the large assumed surface roughness lengths.

Table 10-1. Summary of surface characteristics for application of the Phase II dust model.

Parameter Dust Code 3 Dust Code 4 Dust Code 6 Dust Code 7 Land use category Agricultural Grassland Shrubland Barren Surface roughness length (cm) 0.031 0.1 0.05 0.002 Threshold friction velocity (mi/h) 8.33 13.81 9.62 6.81 Threshold wind velocity at 38 m height (mi/h) 29.5 44.3 32.8 28.5



### 10.3.4 Emission fluxes

Emission fluxes, or emission rates, are determined as a function of surface friction velocity and soil texture. The relationships developed by Alfa ro and Gomes (2001) for each of the soil texture groups of Alfaro et al. (2003) is applied for es timating dust emission fluxes. These relationships were presented in Figure 10-2 above.



### 10.3.5 Reservoir characteristics
Dust emissions from vacant lands are limited by the amount of erodible soil available for suspension into the atmosphere. In addition to the amount of soil pres ent, the condition of the soil (including texture and stability ) and climatological factors in fluence the total windblown dust emission potential of a given parcel of vacant land . The amount of soil available for a given land parcel is referred to as the reservoir and can be classified as limited or unlimited. The classification chosen has implications with respect to th e duration of time over which the dust emissions are generated. In general, the reservoirs should be classified in terms of the type of soils, the depth of the soil layer, soil moisture content, and meteorological parameters. Finally, the time required for a reservoir to rechar ge following a wind event is infl uenced by a number of factors, including precipitation and snow events and freezing conditions of the soils.

Given that the soils database for use in this task does not provide information concerning themoisture content or the depth of the soil layer, we made certain assumptions regarding the determination and classification of soil reservoirs. Th ese assumptions are based primarily on the landFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

270 use type and stability of the vacant land parcel. Re servoirs are classified as limited for stable land parcels and unlimited for unstable land parcels.
The duration and amount of precipitation and snow and freeze events also affect the dust emissions from wind erosion. In the Phase I applicati on, these parameters were somewhat arbitrarily assigned. Barnard (2003) has compiled a set of conditions for treating these events based on season, soil characteristics, a nd the amounts of rainfall and snow cover. These conditions were based on limited information found in the literature a nd additional assumpti ons. The results of the analysis of Barnard are summ arized in Tables 10-2 and 10-3.

Table 10-2. Number of days after precipitation event to re-initiate wind erosion for rainfall amounts (constant) ≥ 2 in. Soil type Spring/Fall Summer Winter
Sand 3 2.1 4.2 Sandy loam 3 2.1 4.2 Fine sand loam 3 2.1 4.2
Loam 4 2.9 3.8 Silt loam 4 2.9 3.8 Sandy clay loam 4 2.9 3.8 Clay loam 5 3.6 7.2 Silty clay loam 6 4.3 8.6 Clay 7 5.0 10.0

Table 10-3. Number of days after precipitation event to re-initiate wind erosion for rainfall amounts (constant) <2 in. Soil type Spring/Fall Summer Winter
Sand 1 0.7 1.4 Sandy loam 1 0.7 1.4
Fine sand loam 1 0.7 1.4
Loam 2 1.4 2.8 Silt loam 2 1.4 2.8 Sandy clay loam 2 1.4 2.8 Clay loam 3 2.0 4.0 Silty clay loam 4 2.8 5.6 Clay 5 3.6 7.2Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

271 

### 10.3.6 Soil disturbance

The level of disturbance of anerodible surface is an important parameter in estimating windblown dust emissions. Disturbed surfaces tend to generate more dust than undisturbed ones. In the application of the Phase I model, different emission rates were applie d for disturbed versus undisturbed surfaces. The disturbance level of su rfaces was assumed to be determined by the land use type and to be invari ant in time and across the modeling domain. Thus, assumptions were required to assign surface disturbance base d on land cover type. As noted previously, the disturbance level of a surface more appropriately has the effect of altering the threshold surface friction velocity; disturbed surfaces have lower thresholds while undisturbed surfaces exhibit higher threshold fric tion velocities.

The disturbance level of various surfaces across a regional-scale si mulation is difficult to determine, given the lack of detail in both the LULC and soils data available for use in the model. Except for agricultural lands, which are treated se parately in the model (see Section 10.3.8), vacant land parcels are typically und isturbed unless some activity is present that causes a disturbance—for example, off-road vehicle activity in desert lands, or animal grazing on rangelands.
For the Phase II model application, we chose to consider all nonagricu ltural land use types as undisturbed surfaces, since there is no a priori info rmation to indicate otherwise for the regionalscale modeling domain being considered. The effects of assumed disturbance levels were evaluated with sensitivity simulations (discussed in Section 10.4). For the sensitivity simulations, threshold surface friction velocities for the a ssumed disturbed land use types were based on limited experimental data.



### 10.3.7 Data sources
The various datasets required for implementing the Phase II approach to windblown dust estimation are summarized below.

10.3.7.1 Land use/land cover

The land use/land cover data used for Phase II were based on the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). These are the same datasets used in developing the ammonia em issions inventory, and are documented in Section 2. A summary of la nd use types for the U.S. portion of the RPO Unified domain is given in Table 10-4.

Table 10-4. Percentage of each land use type for the U.S. portion of the modeling domain.

Land Use Type Total Area (Acres) % of Total When Water Included % of Total When Water Excluded Water 98,484,739 5.0% — Urban 35,629,865 1.8% 1.9% Barren 37,204,176 1.9% 2.0% Forest 556,424,387 28.1% 29.6%Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

272 Land Use Type Total Area (Acres) % of Total When Water Included % of Total When Water Excluded Shrubland 355,796,082 18.0% 18.9% Grassland 302,601,621 15.3% 16.1% Agricultural 515,624,831 26.0% 27.4% Wetlands 78,127,135 3.9% 4.2% Total when water included 1,979,892,836 100.0% — Total when water excluded 1,881,408,097 — 100.0%

10.3.7.2 Soil characteristics
Application of the emission factor relationships described above requires the characterization of soil texture in terms of the four soil groups consid ered by the model. The type (characteristics) of soil is one of the parameters of primary impor tance when applying the emission estimation relationships derived from wind tunne l study results. We used the ST ATSGO database to determine the types of soils present in the modeling domai n. These data were developed from the same databases as the soils data for the amm onia emissions inventory (see Section 2).

The classification of soil textures and soil group c odes is based on the standard soil triangle that classifies soil texture in term s of percent sand, silt, and clay. Combining the soil groups defined by the work of Alfaro et al. (2003) and Chatenet et al. (1996) and the standard soil triangle provides the mapping of the 12 soil textures to the four soil groups consider ed in their study (see Section 10.2.2.2.2). This soil texture/soil group ma pping (Table 10-5) allows the application of emission factor data.

Table 10-5. STATSGO soil texture and soil group codes.

STATSGO Soil Texture Soil Group STATSGO Soil Texture Soil Group No data N/A Sandy clay loam MS Sand CS Silty clay loam FFS Loamy sand CS Clay loam MS Sandy loam MS Sandy clay MS Silt loam FS Silty clay FFS Silt FFS Clay FS
Loam MSFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

273 10.3.7.3 Meteorology
As with the Phase I model implementation, grid ded hourly meteorological data are required for the dust estimation methodology. The meteorological data for Phase II are based on MM5 model simulation results. Data fields required includ e wind speeds, precipitatio n rates, soil temperatures, and ice/snow cover. The 2002 MM5 mode l results on the RPO Unified domain (see Section 4), at both 12- and 36-km reso lutions, are processed as in Phas e I and used in the application of the Phase II windblown dust model.



### 10.3.8 Agricultural land adjustments
Unlike other types of vacant land, windblown dust emissions from agricultural land are subject to a number of nonclimatic influences, includi ng irrigation and seasonal crop growth. We therefore developed several nonclimatic correction or adjustment factors to apply in calculating the agricultural wind erosion emissions. These factors address:

• long-term effects of irriga tion (i.e., soil “cloddiness”);

• crop canopy cover;

• post-harvest vegetative cover (i.e., residue);

• bare soil (e.g., barren areas within an agricu lture field that do not develop crop canopy for various reasons); and

• field borders (i.e., bare areas surroundi ng and adjacent to agricultural fields).
The methodology used to develop individual nonc limatic correction factors for the Phase I study was described in ENVIRON (2004 a). Most of these methods were based upon previous similar work performed by CARB in their development of California-specific adjustment factors for USDA’s Wind Erosion Equation (WEQ) (CARB, 1997). We developed these correction factors for specific soil textures, crop type s, and geographic locations and then applied them to the wind erosion estimates developed from the wind tunnel studies. Correction f actors were developed only for the 17 field crops specifica lly identified in the BELD3.1 dataset (i.e., alfalfa, barley, corn, cotton, grass, hay, oats, pasture, peanuts, potatoes, rice, rye, sorghum, soybeans, tobacco, wheat, and miscellaneous crops). Due to the in sufficient characterization of the wind erosion emission processes for orchards an d vineyards, correction factors fo r this type of agricultural land were not developed.
For the Phase II dust model implementation, we applied these same nonclimatic adjustments. However, because the BELD3 database was not us ed, these factors were instead related to the agricultural land use types avai lable in the NLCD LULC data . The existing county-level crop percentages from the BELD3 database were linke d to the aggregated agricultural land parcels from the NLCD data. Note that for all states outside of the WRAP and CENRAP regions, no agricultural data were collected. Therefore, for those states no agricultural adjustments were applied.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

274 

### 10.4 Model Results for 2002

This section discusses the re sults obtained from running th e Phase II revised windblown dust emission model using the estima tion methodologies and data de scribed above. However, note that after this set of model r uns was performed, a minor error was discovered in the meteorological data processor. The effect of the error was to shift the wind fields a fixed number of grid cells to the west. The model is therefore being rerun to correct this error and to utilize the latest MM5 simulation results. The revised windblown dust emission estimates, as well as the emission estimates based on the 12-km resolution meteorological data, will be documented in the draft final report for this task, which is schedule for completion in March 2005. Nevertheless, the results from the four sensitivity scenarios descri bed below are still relevant because in each case the wind field shift is the same. The results of these scenarios can still be compared with each other to provide some insight in to the sensitivity of the model and the estimation methodology to various assumptions.
Four scenarios were conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the various assumptions incorporated in the methodol ogy. These scenarios were designe d to consider the effects of soil disturbance and reservoi r characteristics. The scenarios were as follows:

a. No limitation on dust event duration; all soils loose and undisturbed
b. Dust event duration limited to 10 hours per day; all soils loose and undisturbed

c. No limitation on dust event durati on for disturbed or undisturbe d soils; 10% of grassland, shrubland, and barren land area assumed disturbed; threshol d friction velocity for disturbed grass and shrubland = 0.5

· (undisturbed value); thresh old friction velocity for barren land = 0.27

· (undisturbed value)
d. Dust event duration limited to 10 hours per day for undisturbed soils; no limitation on dust event duration for disturbed soils; 10% of grassland, shrubland, and barren land area assumed disturbed; threshold friction velo city for disturbed grass and shrubland = 0.5

· (undisturbed value); thre shold friction velocity for barren land = 0.27

· (undisturbed value)
Sections 10.4.1 through 10.4.4 present plots of coarse PM (PMc) and PM 10 for each scenario. Section 10.4.5 discusses the resu lts for the scenarios, and reco mmends the scenario to use for further evaluation and air quality modeling

. Displays of the spatial distribution of dust emissions are presented in terms of PMc, while state-le vel and domainwide results (bar charts) are presented in terms of PM 10 . The spatial displays are genera ted from the gridded model-ready emission files, which represent PMc as required by the air quality models. PM 10 emission estimates are available as text files output di rectly from the dust model and are summarized by land type and/or stat e for presentation.



### 10.4.1 Scenario a

Scenario a considered al l soils to be loose and undisturbed. In addition, no limit on the duration of dust events was imposed. The spatial distri bution of PMc emissions is displayed in FigureFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

275 10-3. Figure 10-4 shows the di stribution of predicted PM 10 dust emissions by land use type for each of the WRAP states.

Figure 10-3. Spatial distribution of total 2002 annual PMc dust emissions for Scenario a.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

276 Dust from all Categories for Scenario a PM10 Yearly Total

0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000 300,000 330,000 360,000 390,000 420,000AZCACOIDMTNVNMNDORSDUTWAWY



### Statetons/yr Dust Code 3 - Ag Dust Code 4 - Grasslands Dust Code 6 - Shrublands Dust Code 7 - Barren

Figure 10-4. Distribution of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type and state for Scenario a.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

277 

### 10.4.2 Scenario b

As in Scenario a, Scenario b considered all so ils to be loose and undisturbed. In contrast to Scenario a, however, the durati on of dust events was limited to 10 hours per day. Figure 10-5 shows the spatial distributi on of PMc emissions. The distribution of predicted PM 10 dust emissions by land use type for each of the WR AP states is displayed in Figure 10-6.

Figure 10-5. Spatial distribution of total 2002 annual PMc dust emissions for Scenario b.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

278 Dust from all Categories for Scenario b PM10 Yearly Total

0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000AZCACOIDMTNVNMNDORSDUTWAWY



### Statetons/yr Dust Code 3 - Ag Dust Code 4 - Grasslands Dust Code 6 - Shrublands Dust Code 7 - Barren

Figure 10-6. Distribution of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type and state for Scenario b.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

279 

### 10.4.3 Scenario c
Scenario c assumed that 10% of the grassland, shrubland, and barren la nd area was disturbed. For the disturbed areas, threshold friction velociti es were reduced, resulting in the initiation of wind erosion at lower wind speeds. For disturbed grassland and shrubland the threshold friction velocity was assumed equal to 0.5 times the undi sturbed value; for disturbed barren land the threshold friction velocity was assumed equal to 0.27 times the undisturbed value. In addition, no limit on the duration of dust events was imposed for either dist urbed or undisturbed soils. The spatial distribution of PMc emissions is displa yed in Figure 10-7, while Figure 10-8 shows the distribution of predicted PM 10 dust emissions by land use type for each WRAP state.

Figure 10-7. Spatial distribution of total 2002 annual PMc dust emissions for Scenario c.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

280 Dust from all Categories for Scenario c PM10 Yearly Total

0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000 300,000 330,000 360,000 390,000 420,000AZCACOIDMTNVNMNDORSDUTWAWY



### Statetons/yr Dust Code 3 - Ag Dust Code 4 - Grasslands Dust Code 6 - Shrublands Dust Code 7 - Barren

Figure 10-8. Distribution of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type and state for Scenario c.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

281 

### 10.4.4 Scenario d
Scenario d made the same assumption as Scenar io c concerning the disturbance of grassland, shrubland, and barren land. However, a 10-hou r-per-day limit on dust event duration was imposed for all undisturbed soils, while no limit on the dust event duration was imposed for disturbed soils. This scenario differs from the previous scenario in that Scenario c has no limit on the event duration imposed for either disturbe d or undisturbed soils. Figure 10-9 shows the spatial distribution of PMc emissions . The distribution of predicted PM 10 dust emissions by land use type and WRAP state is displayed in Figure 10-10.

Figure 10-9. Spatial distribution of total 2002 annual PMc dust emissions for Scenario d.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

282 Dust from all Categories for Scenario d PM10 Yearly Total

0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000AZCACOIDMTNVNMNDORSDUTWAWY



### Statetons/yr Dust Code 3 - Ag Dust Code 4 - Grasslands Dust Code 6 - Shrublands Dust Code 7 - Barren

Figure 10-10. Distribution of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type and state for Scenario d.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

283 

### 10.4.5 Summary of results and recommendations
The results of the four sensitivity simulations are compared below. Figure 10-11 is a state-bystate comparison of the total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions for the four scenarios. Also displayed in this figur e are the total annual PM 10 dust emissions for 1996 estimated as part of Phase I of this task. Figure 10-12 show s the distribution by month of total PM 10 for the entire domain for the four scenarios. The emissions for Scenarios a and c (no limitation on dust event duration) are consistently higher than those fr om their counterparts, Scenarios b and d (dust event duration limited to 10 hours a day). This result is expected, since the lack of limitation on dust events causes higher emissions to be gene rated in regions where winds exceed the land-usedependent threshold surface velocities for longer tim e periods. Also as expected, the cases with assumed disturbance of grassland, shrubland, an d barren land (Scenarios c and d) show consistently higher emissions than those with no a ssumed soil disturbance (Scenarios a and b).

Dust Yearly Total PM10 by State WRAP States

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000AZCACOIDMTNVNMNDORSDUTWAWY



### Statetons/yr scen a scen b

scen c scen d 1996

Figure 10-11. Distribution of total annual 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by scenario and state.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

284 

### Monthl y Dust Emissions for the Entire Domain

0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 2,400,000 2,800,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


### Monthtons/mon scen a scen b

scen c scen d

Figure 10-12. Monthly dist ribution of total 2002 PM 10 dust emissions for each scenario across the entire WRAP domain.

The seasonal variation of predicted dust emissi ons can also be discerned from Figure 10-12. The dust emissions tend to peak in the spring months due to generally higher winds throughout most of the domain. In addition, for agricultural areas this time period correspo nds to the spring planting when the crop canopy is relative small or absent. A second, smaller peak occurs in the fall for similar reasons.
Figure 10-13 displays the percentage of dust by land use type across the WRAP domain for each scenario. In all cases, the dust emissions are dom inated by those from agricultural lands. Shrubland and grassland make up the majority of the remaining dust emissions, while barren land contributes only a minor portion. A lthough barren lands have the lowe st surface threshold velocity based on the assumed surface roughness length, th ere are only limited areas across the domain characterized as barren lands based on the NLCD used for the project. The impact of the various assumed disturbance levels of the soils and reserv oir characteristics are reflected in the differences between the four pie char ts and are seen to be cons istent with expectations. For example, a comparison of Scenario a and S cenario c shows the expected in crease in estimated dust emissions for the assumed disturbed lands. A comparison of Scenario b and Scenario d shows similar results.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

285 Dust emissions, Scenario a

60.2% 18.4% 20.4% 1.0% Dust Code 3 - Ag Dust Code 4 - Grasslands Dust Code 6 - Shrublands Dust Code 7 - Barren Dust emissions, Scenario b

61.7% 15.7% 21.5% 1.1% Dust Code 3 - Ag Dust Code 4 - Grasslands Dust Code 6 - Shrublands Dust Code 7 - Barren

Dust emissions, Scenario c

48.6%

26.0% 23.3% 2.1% Dust Code 3 - Ag Dust Code 4 - Grasslands Dust Code 6 - Shrublands Dust Code 7 - Barren Dust emissions, Scenario d

42.9%

28.6% 25.7% 2.8% Dust Code 3 - Ag Dust Code 4 - Grasslands Dust Code 6 - Shrublands Dust Code 7 - Barren

Figure 10-13. Distribution of total 2002 PM 10 dust emissions by land use type for each scenario for all WRAP states combined.

Based on review and comparison of the results of the sensitivity simulations, we recommend that the results of Scenario b be used for further evaluation and air quality modeling. Scenario b assumes that all soils are loos e and undisturbed, and imposes a 10-hour-per-day limit on the duration of dust events. Given the limitations of the da ta used for this task, this scenario appears to be the most appropriate, for the following reasons:

• Dust Event Duration: It is reasonable to expect that a limit on the dust event duration is related to the type and amount of soil available for erosion due to winds. Therefore, the assumed limit of 10 hours per day, although only an assumption, is more appropriate than imposing no limit at all on the dust reservoirs.

• Soil Disturbance: Although clearly not al l soils are undisturbed, there is no information available to assign disturbance levels to va rious areas throughout the region. Scenarios c and d assumed a 10% level of disturbance, but that was only for conducting sensitivity simulations. Clearly the percent disturbance will vary by regi on, soil type, and season. In addition, the threshold surface velocities fo r the disturbed soil cases are based on only very limited test results and are ther efore not likely to apply regionwide.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

286 Given the lack of supporting data for the dust re servoir and soil disturba nce characteristics, we feel that the results of Scenario b would be more universally applicable on a regional scale for the WRAP’s air quality modeling purposes.
The spatial distributions of mode led coarse PM dust from Scenario b are presented in Figures 10-14 (annual total) * and 10-15 (seasonal totals). † The dust emissions are highest in agricultural areas in the central portion of the U.S. and in parts of the West that are dominated by shrub- and grassland. Echoing the results s hown in Figure 10-12, the seasonal plots in Figure 10-15 indicate that the highest predicted dust emission occur during the spring, when winds are typically stronger throughout the region and agricultural crops have recently been planted. Lower overall dust emissions are predicted in the summer mont hs, corresponding to th e higher level of crop canopy cover and, in the Southwest, to increased periods of precipitation.

Figure 10-14. Spatial distribution of annua l 2002 PMc dust emissions for Scenario b.

* This figure looks different from Figure 10-5 because Figure 10-5 uses to ns/yr while Figure 10-14 uses log(tons/yr). † Note that these figures show only th e western portion of the domain. Due to the lack of detailed agricultural information for states outside the WRAP and CENRAP regions, we could not apply the nonclimatic agricultural adjustments described above outside those two regions. Because the assumed surface roughness for agricultural lands is representative of a bare field, these areas have a greater potential for wind erosion. Therefore, since noagricultural adjustment could be applied to the eastern portion of the domain, results for that region are overestimated and are therefore neither realistic nor applicable. The displays were prepared for the western region only in order to highlight spatial details not apparent when the entire domain is displayed.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

287 Figure 10-15. Spatial distribution of 2002 PMc dus t emissions by season for Scenario b.



### 10.5 Model Performance Evaluation
As part of Phase II of this task, the RMC is to conduct a model performance evaluation of the revised windblown dust emission model. We have in itiated this evaluation, but at this time only preliminary information has been collected and an alyzed, so there are no results to discuss yet. The model performance evaluation has been delaye d due to the need to rerun the windblown dust emissions model with the latest MM5 meteorological data for the WRAP 12-km modelingdomain. These results will be fully documented in this task’s Phase II final report, to be completed in early March 2005. In this section we summarize th e model performance evaluation approach and procedures.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

288 The 2002 windblown dust emissions model will be evaluated several ways for the reasonableness and accuracy of its output. On e of the challenges in this ev aluation is that measurements generally do not distinguish between windblown dust and other forms of dust (e.g., from paved and unpaved roads). Moreover, measurements of co arse mass, which is typically assumed to be dust, can contain other nondust compounds (e.g., sulfate and nitrate compounds).
The IMPROVE monitoring network measures a fine soil species and a CM species that are generally assumed to be due to dust emissions. The fine soil species consists of mineral elements, so in the absence of interference by fires it is probably a fairly good es timate of the fine dust contribution. The CM measurement, on the othe r hand, is the difference between the PM 10 and PM 2.5 mass measurements, so it can co ntain compounds other than dust.
WRAP is performing a study titled “Assessment of the Major Causes of Dust-Resultant Haze in the WRAP” (Etyemezian et al., 2004) that will ch aracterize dust events at IMPROVE monitors for 2001-2003. This study is using visibility extinc tion due to fine soil ( FS) and CM to define extinction due to dust:

B dust = [FS] + 0.6 [CM]

Dust events at the WRAP IMPROVE monito rs are being characterized as follows:

• Transcontinental events

• Regional windblown dust events

• Wildfire-related events

• Local windblown dust

• Other events

• Unknown source
This analysis will be very valuable as we evaluate the windblown and other dust emissions. However, results from this study are not yet available.
We initially intended to conduct th e model performance evaluation in three parts: (1) an initial comparison of modeled dust emissions with m easured dust at IMPROVE monitors; (2) an evaluation of the CMAQ model results with and without the windblow n dust emissions; and (3) a refined evaluation using the results of the Causes of Dust project. However, due to the delays in the Causes of Dust project and the desire to complete the windblown dust emissions inventory in a reasonable time frame, the e nhanced model performance evaluation was dropped from the scope of work for this task. The remaining two parts of the model performance evaluation are described in Sections 10.5.1 and 10.5.2.



### 10.5.1 Evaluation, Part 1: Comparison s of windblown dust emissions with the occurrence of enhanced “dust” at IMPROVE monitors
For each 24-hour IMPROVE sample during 2002, we will match the IMPROVE dust extinction ( B dust ) with modeled windblown dust emissions for the concurrent day in the nine (3 x 3) and 25Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

289 (5 x 5) grid cells centered on th e IMPROVE monitor. Statistics will be generated to identify the occurrence of four di fferent situations:

1. near-zero B dust and zero modeled windblown dust ( nonoccurrence of both measured and modeled dust);
2. near-zero B dust and enhanced (i.e., exceeding background levels) modeled windblown dust (no measured dust, but modeled windbl own dust in vicinity of monitor);
3. enhanced B dust and no windblown dust (occurrence of measured dust, but no modeled windblown dust); and
4. enhanced B dust and modeled windblown dust emissi ons (occurrence of both enhanced measured and enhanced modeled dust).
These classifications allow a qua litative evaluation ofthe windblown dust emissions. It is expected that type 1 would occur most frequently, especially at more north erly sites and during the winter months, and there should be a lot of agreement between the modeled values and the measurements. Type 2 does not necessarily indi cate a problem with the windblown dust model, as the dust cloud may be real but may not have impacted the monitor. Likewise, the elevated B dust in type 3 may be due to sources other than windblown dust, so type 3 also does not necessarily indicate a problem. Type 4 may provide the most information, especially if a positive correlation can be established be tween windblown dust emissions and B dust . If the above analysis provides useful information, it would be repeat ed for the fine and co arse components of the measured (FS and CM) dust and modeled windblown dust emissions.



### 10.5.2 Evaluation, Part 2: Enhancements to CMAQ to sepa rately track dust
CMAQ currently tracks all fine PM that is not SO 4 , NO 3 , EC, or OC as a single species (A25). Similarly, all coarse PM is typical ly tracked as one species (ACORS). * We will modify CMAQ by adding two additional fine and coarse PM speci es, one set to track fine and coarse windblown dust emissions and the other set to track fine a nd coarse “other dust” emissions. This will allow the separate accounting of CMAQ’s fine and coarse PM species in to windblown dust, other dust, and other primary fine and co arse PM emissions species.
We will run the modified CMAQ and compare the model estimates against the IMPROVE measures for fine soil and CM. The evaluation will be performed for dus t (windblown and other) species alone and with and w ithout windblown dust to determin e whether adding the windblown dust emissions improves model performance. Th e performance of CMAQ using all other fine and coarse emissions would also be eval uated, as has been done in the past.



### 10.6 Summary
This section summarizes the major findings so fa r of Phase II of the windblown dust model task. It also lists recommendations with regard to improvements in data quality, and suggests enhancements and refinements of the estimati on methodology. As noted at the beginning of

* Note that there are other coarse species for s ea salt and soil, but they are not typically used.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

290 Section 10.4, we are currently revising the wi ndblown dust emissions estimates due to a minor error that occurred in processi ng the wind fields used in the estimation methodology. However, the general qualitative discussi on of the results presented here is not expected to change significantly. The revised emission estimates will be presented in the draft final task report. Several of the recommendations provided below also will be addressed in that report.



### 10.6.1 Results
Based on a review of recent studies concerning du st emission from wind er osion, we developed a general Phase II estimat ion methodology for PM dust emission s from wind erosion. Emission rates were developed by soil type and stability class. Land use/la nd cover data were based on the NLCD database and used to determine the su rface roughness lengths n ecessary for estimating threshold surface friction veloci ties. Wind speed, precipitation rate s, and soil temperatures were based on MM5 model simulation results at a sp atial resolution of 36 km. Although the overallestimation methodology was updated and improved upon from the Phase I methodology, a number of assumptions were still required to impl ement the methodology, primarily related to limitations in the input data used in the model (see Section 10.3).
We implemented the Phase II estimation methodology for calendar year 2002 on the RPO Unified domain. A number of sensitivity simulations we re performed to investigate the effects of the various assumptions regarding dust reservoir char acteristics and the disturbance levels of the soils across the domain. The results were presente d and discussed in Section 10.4. Qualitatively, the results appear to be consistent with what would be expected based on the various assumptions made.
A more detailed analysis of the model results a nd a comparison with ambient data are currently underway and will be documented in the task final report.



### 10.6.2 Recommendations

As the results of the task are still under revi ew and a more detailed model performance evaluation is underway, it is too early to present a fu ll set of recommendations. However, based on a preliminary assessment of the results from th e Phase II fugitive windblown emission estimation methodology, we can make the followi ng initial set of recommendations:

• An attempt should be made to identify more detailed data on land use types and soil characteristics for the regional domain.

• The lack of information needed to apply agricultural adjustments to the eastern U.S. should be addressed.

• The dust model should be rerun using the latest 36-km annual MM5 modeling results from Task 2.

• The model should be applied using the 12- km-resolution MM5 meteorology data when they become available from Task 2.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

291 • To validate the methodology, the model should be applied to a smaller local domain for which detailed data are available.

• The transport fractions developed by the EPA should be applied. This should be implemented from within the dust model to make use of the higher resolution of the land use data, as opposed to appli cation at the county level.



### 10.7 Status of Task 9 Deliverables
Table 10-6 below gives the status of each Task 9 deliverable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliverables ag reed upon after the work plan was prepared.

Table 10-6. Status of the Task 9 deliverables.

Deliverable Status Draft final task report Expected completion in early March 2005. Final task report To be completed after re ceiving comments on draft final task report. Updated model results To be included in the draft final task report.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

292 

## 11. Task 10: Continued Improvement to Model Evaluation Software

11.1 Work Performed from Ma rch 2004 through February 2005
During this project year, the RMC continued to use and improve the UCR model performance evaluation (MPE) software that wa s developed earlier in the proj ect and that has been supported primarily by WRAP. We note that funding from VISTAS was also used to improve the MPE software during 2003; in return, VISTAS realized substantial benefits from applying the MPE software. This example represents one of many benefits of this project to multiple RPOs.
Only minor changes in the MPE software were planned for 2004. The original work plan included tasks to process Photochemical Assessmen t Monitoring Station (PAMS) and PM Supersite data, and to develop software for creating contour plots of error and bias. In consultation with the WRAP Air Quality Modeling Forum, ho wever, it was agreed that these were low priority tasks, so instead those resources were reallocated for the acquisition of additional disk storage that was needed for the project. Because there is relatively minimal benefit in evaluating the small amount of PAMS (prima rily located in urba n areas) and Supersite data for the WRAP region, we do not recommend continuing those tasks in the 2005 work plan.
We continued to revise and improve the MPE so ftware during 2004. For a snapshot of the MPE software as of January 2005, please refer to Appendix F, which is MPE draft documentation titled “User’s Guide, Air Quality Model Evalua tion Software, Version 2.0.1.” Because model performance guidance does not yet exist for visi bility modeling, we continue to explore new evaluation methods, and sometimes discover improve d methods for presenting model results that necessitate changes in the MPE software. In particular, during 2004 we experimented with various types of plots for summa rizing and effectively presenting the results of the model-toambient-data comparisons, including soccer plot s and bugle plots. Beginning in January 2005 we also adapted a Microsoft Access Database program originally developed by Air Resource Specialists (Cassie Archuleta, Air Resource Sp ecialists, Inc., pers onal communication) to produce stacked-bar time-series plots.
While there is not yet official EPA guidance on which model performance metrics or which type of evaluation products should be used, we have found that the stacked-bar time-series plots and the bugle plots are most effective for conveying both qualitative and quantitative information about model performance. Although we continue to compute a wide variety of model performance metrics, we typically use mean fractiona l bias (MFB) and mean fractional error (MFE) when presenting evaluation results because thes e metrics provide the most balanced and symmetrical approach for characterizing m odel underpredictions and overpredictions.
Figures 11-1 through 11-4 present examples of th e newer model evaluation products. We present these to illustrate the types of model evaluation results that can be produ ced using the MPE.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

293 An advantage of our traditional MPE products (i.e ., time-series plots and scatterplots) was thatthey were produced automatically by the MPE software with minimal staff time. The new evaluation products (soccer plots, bugle plots, stacked-bar time-series pl ots) have been very resource intensive to produce because we have prepared them “manually” by importing error and bias metrics into Excel spreadsheets or Access and th en preparing the plots. Therefore, we spent additional effort in 2004 to begi n automating development of the stacked-bar time-series plots.
We plan to release a public version of the MPE software after completing revisions to the MPE user’s guide given in Appendix F. This documentation will also be posted to the RMC web site.
During this project year, we also invested substantial effort in attempting to identify updated site information for IMPROVE sites that can be used in the MPE software. There are at least three different versions of site clas sifications that are referenced in policy guidance from EPA, so we made an effort to determine the most correct li st of IMPROVE sites for use in the MPE software. We have implemented additional sets of site lists into the routine model evaluation. These include some sites that are in Class I areas but for which there are no monitoring data. These sites can be used for evaluating the results of different model sensitivity experiments and emissions reductions or for producing source attri bution products. However, these sites cannot be used in model performance evaluations for which ambient monitori ng data are required.



### 11.2 Status of Task 10 Deliverables
Table 11-1 gives the status of each Task 10 de liverable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliv erables agreed upon after the work plan was prepared.

Table 11-1. Status of the Task 10 deliverables.

Deliverable Status
Visualization tools for source attribution Completed in March 2004, with peri odic updates afterward. Source code available to WRAP members on request. GUI for using model evaluation tools and visualization tools We developed GUI tools for using the model performance evaluation software, as described in the MPE documentation. However, we believe that the script version of the MPE software is easier to use and maintain, and we recommended continuing with only a script version of the software. Therefore, per agreement with the WRAP Air Qualit y Modeling Forum, we agreed to drop this deliverable to focus resources in other areas. Revised version of MPE package Periodic updates were made throughout the project year. List of sites used in evaluation in October 2004 was revised to accommodate vague EPA guidance on identification of site definitions. Source code is available to WRAP members on request. We plan to release a public, open-source version for wider distribution when the MPE documentation is completed in March 2005. Documentation of model software To be completed in March 2005.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

294 

## 12. Task 11: Sensitivity Studies Designed to Evaluate Uncertainties in Fire Emissions

With the Fire Emissions Joint Forum and Air Sciences Inc., the RMC developed several emission scenario combinations to study the effect of fires on air quality in ge neral, and on visibility in particular. Some of these scenarios include 2018 emissions and fire s; others include 2002 emissions and fires. In general, we compared CMAQ results created using emissions with no fires in the WRAP domain against CMAQ results cr eated after adding either one type of fire or all types of fires to the emi ssions. Development of fire emissions data was completed by Air Sciences Inc. under contract from WRAP. Processi ng of fire emissions is described in Section 3 of this report. Figure 12-1a, discussed in more detail in Section 3.1, shows the locations and magnitudes of total fire emissions for July 2002.
Sections 12.1 through 12.6 describe the results of the fire sensitivity modeling scenarios. We have completed emissions processing and CMAQ simulations and analysis for all of the fire sensitivity model simulations th at were included in the revi sed 2004 work plan. The primary analysis products in clude the following:

• Monthly-average spatial visibi lity plots using both decivi ew (dV, or dcv) and the extinction coefficient ( B ext ) and concentrations of selected PM species and ozone. These include plots showing spatial distributions of concentration for a model base case simulation, and difference plot s that show the spatial change in concentration for a sensitivity scenario compared to the base cas e simulation. The base case spatial plots are included in the analysis a nd evaluation of the Pre02b, Pre02c and Pre02d base case simulations at the RMC web page http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml

. Therefore, our analysis here focuses on the difference plots for the fire sensitivity simulations. Key results are discussed below; for complete results, see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#fire

.

• Stacked-bar time-series plots show ing the summed contribution to B ext at each selected sites. Example plots are shown in Figure 12-2, for the anthropoge nic and natural fire emissions at the Grand Canyon IMPROVE site. At sites for which monitoring data are available, these time-series plots can also be compared to a stacked-bar time-series plot of the ambient monitoring data. Alternatively, model-versus-model resu lts can be compared at sites for which ambient data are not avai lable. Stacked bar plots for the Pre02d base case are available at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml , so here we focus on the stacked-bar difference plots comparing the fire sensitivity runs to a base case run. Note that in some instances we may compare th e differences between two different fire sensitivity cases rather than a sensitivity case and base case. These plots have been used primarily as a qualitative approach for asse ssing source attribution to fire emissions.

Table 12-1 lists the new model simu lations completed, including a short name used to identify each modeled fire sensitivity case. Each of th e sensitivity scenarios is also summarized below. In addition to these new model simulations, we al so completed further analysis for some fireFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

295 model simulations carried out using the 1996 and 2018 scenarios th at were developed during the Section 309 modeling effort.

Table 12-1. Summary of new air quality mode l simulations used to evaluate effects of fire emissions.

Model Case Motivation Case ID Base case (no fire) Base case to compare with modeled fire sensitivity simulations Pre02b

Base + ag vertical sens (Scenario 4) Evaluate model sensitivity to uncertainty in plume rise of emissions from agricultural burning. Pre02b_agmod

Base + wildfires Evaluate effect of all wildfires on model-simulated visibility Pre02b_wf02
Base + “natural” fires (Scenario 5a) Evaluate effect of natural fires on model-simulated visibility (includes all wildfires and some prescribed burning). Pre02e

Base + ag burning Evaluate effect of agricultural burning emissions on modelsimulated visibility Pre02b_ag18

Base + Rx burning Evaluate effect of prescribed burning on model-simulated visibility Pre02b_rx02

Base + all fire emis (Scenario 1a) Reference case with all fires to compare with Pre02b (base case) and with other fire sensitivity cases. Pre02c

Base + anthro + natural fires Uses new fire emissions classes. The total of the anthro plus natural fire emissions is identical to the total Pre02c fire emissions in scenario 1a. Pre02f



### 12.1 Scenario 1(a)
This scenario was designed to investigate the comb ined effects of all fire types on air quality. It compares the 2002 CMAQ results that were based on the preliminary Pre02b base case emissions scenario against the 2002 CMAQ results that were based on emissions scenario Pre02c, which includes Pr e02b emissions plus the combined emissions of three fire types:
(1) 2002 wildfires (wf02)
(2) 2018 typical agricultural fire s (agbase.073102, also refe rred to below as ag18)
(3) 2002 prescribed fires (rx02)

The fire emissions are described in 5.2.10. A detailed description of the other (i.e., nonfire) emissions sources used in these model simulations is also available at http://www.cert.ucr.edu/rmc/2002/emissi ons/WRAP_2004_Emissions_Workplan_v1-2.xls

.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

296 Figure 12-1 shows results of this analysis averag ed for the month of July. The July average is shown here as illustrative of the relation between emissions and visibility impact because it is one of the months with large total fire emissions, and total fire emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), shown in Figure 12-1a, are us ed here as an indicator of fire size and location. Plots of emissions of other gas and partic ulate species, which are included on the RMC web site, have the same relative intensity and distribution as the CO emissions. Figure 12-1b shows the effect of combined wild fire, ag burning, and prescribed bu rning fire emissions on vi sibility (in deciviews) calculated as the July average. We note that the Pre02f case (Figure 12-1b), which combines natural and anthropogenic fire emissions, is iden tical to the Pre02d case, which combines wild fire, ag burning, and prescribed burning emissi ons. Figure 12-1 shows that fire emissions have large effects on visibility throughout the western states. The peak im pact of 20.6 dV is in western Colorado; also, large regions show vi sibility changes gr eater than 4 dV.
Figures 12-3 and 12-4 show the monthly average effects on visibility as deciviews for all 12 months. The effects of the wildfire emissions in June through August are by far the largest contribution to fire emissions, with the highest modeled decivi ew values occurring August.



### 12.2 Scenario 1(b)
This scenario was created to investigate the effect of each individual fire type on air quality. It is made up of three subscenarios that compare the CMAQ scenario with no fires (Pre02b) with a CMAQ sensitivity run that includes the Pre 02b emissions plus one type of fire:

1. Scenario Pre02b_wf02: Pre02b vs. Pre02b + wf02 (wild fires for 2002, as identified by SCC in the SMOKE point file). SMOKE was run to merge Pre02b and wf02 emissions to create the emissions input for CMAQ.

2. Scenario Pre02b_ag18: Pre02b vs. Pre02b + agbase. 073102. SMOKE was run to merge Pre02b and ag18 emissions to crea te emissions input to CMAQ.

3. Scenario Pre02b_rx02: Pre02b vs. Pre02b + rx02 (prescri bed fires for 2002, as identified by SCC in the SMOKE PT file). SMOKE was run to merge Pre02b and rx02 emissions to create emissions input to CMAQ. Figure 12-5 shows the results of each of these three scenarios as spatial plots in PAVE for the month of July, for which the monthly average wa s calculated from the model simulation results over all hours in the month. Note that the left pa nels show CO emissions for each fire category, but that the color scale varies acr oss the three plots, and that wildfire emissions are an order of magnitude larger than emissions from prescribed and agricultural burning. The visibility effects of wildfire emissions in Figure 12-5b are very similar to the effects of the combined fire emissions in Figure 12-1b.



### 12.3 Scenario 2
This scenario compares CMAQ results based on using the 2018 “All control” Base Smoke Management scenario (Allcntl_bsm) with thos e using the 2018 “All control” Optimal SmokeFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

297 Management scenario (Allcntl _osm), where base and optimal smoke management have been defined by the Fire Emissions Joint Forum. Th e Allcntl_bsm emissions include 2018 emissions with controls applied to some point sources and to all three base 2018 typical fire emissions. The Allcntl_osm emissions include 2018 emissions with controls applied to some point sources and fire emissions reductions derived from the optim al smoke management strategy for 2018 typical agricultural and prescribed fire emissions, and to the wildfires. No new SMOKE or CMAQ runs were required for this scenario because we used model simulation results that we developed in the §309 modeling effort.
Figures 12-6(a-d) show the seasonal differences in CO emi ssions as a result of changing from the base smoke management (BSM) scenario to th e optimal smoke management (OSM) scenario; blue colors indicate reductions in emissions. As expected, the OSM scenario produced only reduced emissions with no increases relative to BSM. The highest reduction was during the spring and the lowest reductions were during the winter. Figure s 12-6(a-d) and 12-7(a-d) show the seasonal change in visibility (in deciview s) for OSM compared to BSM. The pattern of temporal (seasonal) and spatial changes in visibility is similar to changes in emissions. The changes in B ext were as low as -15.69 1/Mm (plots for B ext are not shown here but their spatial pattern is identical to that of the deciview plots); in deciviews they were as low as -1.0 deciview.
Figures 12-8 and 12-9 show the monthly average changes in visibility, as monthly average deciviews, for the OSM case compared to th e BSM case. The monthly average results are consistent with the seasonal results; the greatest absolute improvement in visibility occurs in September, with a reduction extin ction coefficient of 29.7 1/Mm im provement in visibility (plots of extinction coefficient are not shown here but are included in the September 2004 FEJF meeting presentation (see the PowerPoint file at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/meetings.shtml ). In terms of deciviews, the la rgest improvements were in the spring and fall months, both in magnitude and in spatial extent of the improve ment, with the greatest improvement being a 2.3- dV improvement in June. There were small improvem ents in visibility in the summer and winter months.



### 12.4 Scenario 3
This scenario will compare CMAQ results using emissions simulation Pre02c with those using a modified Pre02c in which the prescribed fires an d wildfires will be repla ced with new inputs in which some of the smaller fires will be zeroed ou t. This activity has been deferred until the FEJF develops these data.



### 12.5 Scenario 4
This scenario, named Pre02b_agmod, was designed to investigate the effect ofa vertical redistribution of fire emissions by removing 50% of the agricultural burning emissions from the model’s surface layer and redistributing an equal mass of emissions to higher layers in the model. The total agricultural fire emissions in each grid cell for the Pre02b_agmod scenario were the same as those in Scenario Pre02b_ag18 (see Section 12.2). New PTHOUR files were created in which the emission fractions in the first la yer (L1FRAC) were reduced by th e ratio 38/80. The rest of theFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

298 first-layer emissions (42/80) were placed in the higher layers. SMOKE and CMAQ runs were required to complete this scenario. Results are available on the RMC web site (see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#fire ) and in PowerPoint files (see the files from the FEJF meetings at http://pah.cert.ucr.e du/aqm/308/meetings.shtml ). The results are not shown here because the change in vertical distribut ion had essentially no ef fect on visibility.
There are two probable reasons why this sensitivity did not show an effect on visibility. First, the agricultural burning emissions were small compared to wildfire emissions, so changes in the agricultural burning vertical profile should logically have only a small relative effect on visibility (Figure 12-5f). Second, the agri cultural burning emissions are generally small fires for which the plume rise does not exceed the height of the pl anetary boundary layer (PBL). Because the PBL is well mixed during the daytime when most agricu ltural burning emissions occur, these emissions tend to be well mixed in the PBL regardless of wh ich layer they are injected within the model.
However, we would expect a different result for large wildfires for which the plume rise height may extend into the free troposphere, and which also have much larger emissions than agricultural burning, and therefore a larger effect on visibility in general. Additional sensitivity simulations should still be performe d to evaluate the effects of plum e rise height for large fires.



### 12.6 Scenario 5

To evaluate the effects of natural versus an thropogenic fire emissi ons, we created two new emission scenarios using new fire emissi ons datasets provided by Air Sciences.

1. Scenario Pre02e: Includes Pre02b base emissions and the new natural fire emissions files only (i.e., no new anthropogenic fire emissions), using fire emissions received from Air Sciences on September 10, 2004.

2. Scenario Pre02f: Includes Pre02b base emissions, the new natural fire emissions, the new anthropogenic fire emissions, and the old agricultural burning emissions.
The following comparisons using th ese datasets were performed:

• Compare Pre02e to Pre02b to assess sour ce attribution for natural fire emissions.

• Compare Pre02f to Pre02e to assess source at tribution for anthropogenic fire emissions.

• Compare Pre02f to Pre02b to assess sour ce attribution for total fire emissions.

• Compare Pre02f to Pre02c to evaluate the effects of the new fire emissions inventory compared to the older fire emissions data used in earlier 2002 modeling.
Complete results are given on the RMC web site (see http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#fire ); here, we present summary results. Figure 12-10a shows the July total natural fire emissions of CO. Comparing this w ith Figure 12-1a, it is apparent that the natural fire emissions are almost identical to the wildfire emissions. Natural fire emissions were defined by the FEJF to include all wildfire emissions and a portion of the prescribed burning emissions, while anthropogeni c emissions were defined to include all ag burning and the remaining portion of the prescribed burning. Because the wildfire emissions areFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

299 much larger than the other two ca tegories, the effects of natural fire emissions on visibility, as shown in Figure 12-10b, were nearly identical to the effects of th e wildfire emissions. Moreover, the effects of the anthropogenic emissions on visi bility (Figure 12-10c) were small, with peak increases of 1.2 dV in Oregon and increases of le ss than 0.5 dV in all other regions. Finally, comparing Figure 12-10b to Figure 12-10d shows that the effects of the na tural fire emissions were nearly identical to the combined natural an d anthropogenic fire emissions in Figure 12-10d.
In retrospect, it is not surprising that the anthr opogenic emissions had a relatively small effect on visibility, given the small magnitude of anthropoge nic agricultural burning compare to total fire emissions. However, anthropogenic fire emissi ons might show larger effects in model simulations with finer grid resolutions. For example, results shown here were from model simulations on a 36-km grid. It is possible that on a 4-km grid the emissions intensity could be as much as 81 times greater than the 36-km grid be cause each 36-km grid cell contains 9x9 of the 4-km grid cells. Thus, it is possible that an thropogenic fire emissi ons might have more significant effects on visibility in model simulati ons using higher grid resolutions. This would be a special concern for emissions located in or near a Class I area. Thus, the significance of anthropogenic emissions should not be discounted based on these re sults, and additional studies should be performed at finer grid resolutions.



### 12.7 Status of Task 11 Deliverables
Table 12-1 gives the status of each Task 11 de liverable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliv erables agreed upon after th e work plan was prepared.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

300 Table 12-2. Status of the Task 11 deliverables.

Deliverable StatusReport on analysis of existing results Results were presented at the Fire Emissions Joint Forum meeting in Idaho on Sept 9, 2004. PowerPoint files are available on the RMC web site: Preliminary Fire Emissions Sensitivity Results in CMAQ Report results of additional model

runs. Deliverables include the PowerPoint presentations given at the Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meetings, available at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/meetings.shtml

. FEJF Meeting in Las Vegas, NV, December 8, 2004:

• Additional Fire Emissions Sensitivity Results in CMAQ

• Example Stacked Bar Time-Series Plot FEJF Meeting in Idaho, Sept 9, 2004:

• Preliminary Fire Emissions Sensitivity Results in CMAQ
Additional results are available on the RMC web site at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#fire . Results of analyzing the air quality model simulations are available on the RMC web site for the following comparisons: Monthly average spatial difference plot s to examine source attribution fire emissions:

• Pre02f (natural+anthropogenic fire) vs. Pre02e (natural fire only)

• Pre02f (natural+anthropogenic fire) vs. Pre02b (no fire)

• Pre02f (natural+anthropogenic fire) vs. Pre02c (old fire)

• Pre02e (natural fire) vs. Pre02b (no fire) Daily difference stacked-bar plots for extinction contribution:

• Pre02f (natural+anthropogenic fire) vs. Pre02e (natural fire only)

• Pre02f (natural+anthropogenic fire) vs. Pre02b (no fire)

• Pre02e (natural fire) vs. Pre02b (no fire)Monthly average spatial difference plots for the three fire categories individually compared to no fire emissions:

• Pre02b_wf02 (Wild Fires) vs. Pre02b (no fire)

• Pre02b_rx02 (Prescribed burning) vs. Pre02b (no fire)

• Pre02b_ag18 (Ag Burning) vs. Pre02b (no fire) Sensitivity of model to changes in verti cal distribution of ag burning emissions, with half of surface layer emissions redist ributed to upper layers in the model:

• Pre02b_agmod (Redistributed verti cal Ag Burning) vs. Pre02b_ag18

(original Ag Burning)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

301

Figure 12-1. (a) The July total fire emissions of carbon monoxide, used as an indicator of fire size and location; (b) the effect of co mbined wild fire, agricultural burning, and prescribed burning fire emis sions on visibility, calcul ated as the July average. (a)

(b) Log(tons/mo)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

302

Figure 12-2. Two example plots of results show ing effects of fire em issions on extinction coefficient at the Grand Canyon IMPROVE site . Top panel is for anthropogenic emissions; bottom panel is for natural emissions.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

303

Figure 12-3. Monthly average for January throug h June (as labeled in each plot) showing effect of total fire emissions calculated as the difference of the Pre02f case with both natural and anthropogenic fire emissions minus the Pre02b case with no fire emissions.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

304 Figure 12-4. Monthly averages for July th rough December (as labeled in each plot) showing effect of total fire emissions calculated as the difference of the Pre02f case with both natural and anthropogenic fi re emissions minus the Pre02 ca se with no fire emissions.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

305

Figure 12-5. Left panels show change in carb on monoxide emissions. Right panels shows the change in visibility from all aerosol species , as monthly average deciviews, for each fire sensitivity case: (b) July wild fires; (d ); November prescribed burning; (f) November agricultural burning.. (a)

(c)

(e) (b)

(d)

(f)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

306

Figure 12-6. Seasonal total change in carbon monoxide emissions for the Optimal Smoke Management emissions compared to th e Base Smoke Management emissions.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

307 Figure 12-7. Seasonal average change in d eciviews showing effect of Optimal Smoke Management emissions compared to Base Smoke Management emissions.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

308

Figure 12-8. Monthly average for January throug h June (as labeled in each plot) showing effect of Optimal Smoke Management compar ed to Base Smoke Management emissions.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

309 Figure 12-9. Monthly average for July through December (as labeled in each plot) showing

effect of Optimal Smoke Management compar ed to Base Smoke Management emissions.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

310 Figure 12-10. (a) The July total natural fire emissions of carbon monoxide. Panels (b) through (d) show the effect of fire sensitivity simulations on visibilit y, calculated as deciviews and averaged for the month of July, as th e difference of each fire sensitivity case minus base case (i.e., Pre02b) for (b) the natu ral fire sensitivity case; (c) the anthropogenic fire emissions, and (d) the combined natu ral and anthropogenic fire emissions. (a)

(c) (d) (b)Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

311 

## 13. Task 12: Preliminary Meteorological, Emissions, and Air Quality Modeling Activities for Alaska

13.1 Introduction
As explained in Section 1.1.1, EPA’s Regional H aze Rule calls for state and Federal agencies to work together to improve visibi lity in 156 Federally mandated Class I areas that include national parks and wilderness areas. The objective of the RHR is to achieve natural visibility conditions in these Federally protected lands by the year 206 4. The rule requires th at states develop and implement air quality SIPs and TIPs to reduce th e pollution that causes visibility impairment. WRAP is charged with implementing regional pla nning processes to improve visibility in western U.S. Class I areas.
The State of Alaska is developing a plan to prot ect visibility and comply with the intent of the RHR. Alaska poses some unique challenges for re gional haze modeling. Geographically, it is far enough removed from the rest of the WRAP states that using a unified m odeling domain would be quite large and inefficient. Also, Alaska ha s much lower emission densities than the other WRAP states (except during fire events), and there are longer transport distances between the various source regions and Class I areas. In additi on, the influence of lo ng-range (international) transport of pollutants from Eurasia may domi nate regional haze events on occasion (this phenomenon is known as Arctic haze).
There are four Class I areas in Alaska (Figure 13-1):

• Denali National Park and Preserve

• Tuxedni Wilderness Area

• Simeonof Wilderness Area

• Bering Sea Wilderness Area
Both the Simeonof and Bering Sea Wilderness Areas are quite far away (>500 mi) from Anchorage and Fairbanks, the two largest cities in Alaska. However, the Tuxedni Wilderness Area and Denali National Park are close enough that they may be affected by emissions from, respectively, Anchorage and Fairbanks, as we ll as other emission sources in the region.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

312 Figure 13-1. Locations of the four Class I areas in Alaska and of the two biggest Alaskan cities, Anchorage and Fairbanks.

As part of the WRAP Alaska effort, the RMC is developing techniques fo r credible modeling of regional haze in Alaska, and providing an initia l evaluation of the potentia l contributions to regional haze in the Alaska Class I areas that are mo re likely to be affected by in-state emissions: Denali National Park, Tuxedni Wilderness Area, and (less so) Simeonof Wilderness Area. (Due to its remoteness, the Bering Sea Wilderness Area will not be addressed in this initial modeling analysis). There are three main components of regional haze m odeling: meteorological modeling, emissions modeling, and air quality modeling.
The State of Alaska is developing a statewide emissions inventory fo r all sources. It is therefore premature to perform emissions modeling, as not all of the data are cu rrently available in a suitable form. Consequently, it is also prematur e to perform photochemical grid modeling with a model such as CMAQ, since source-oriented mode ls require complete emissions inventories. Thus, the approach in our WRAP Alaska modeling work is to develop meteorological modeling techniques to simulate the unique and comple x meteorological conditions of Alaska, and to perform some preliminary air qua lity modeling using a simplified Lagrangian (trajectory) model to provide an initial assessment of the potenti al emissions contributi ons from Anchorage and Fairbanks, as well as major stationary sources, to visibility at Denali Na tional Park and Tuxedni Wilderness Area. The Lagrangian model chosen for preliminary WRAP Alaska visibility modeling is the California Puff Model (C ALPUFF) air quality modeling system.
We are using MM5 to develop hourly meteorological fields for the Alaska region. In the initial modeling phase, MM5 has been applied to simula te two different and diverse episodes (i.e., aFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

313 summer and a winter period) to develop appr opriate methods for running MM5 over Alaska, including Cook Inlet, the Alaska Range, and the region north of Fairbanks. The meteorological conditions of Alaska, describe d in Section 13.2.2, required some special consideration.
We have developed a modeling protocol for the meteorological modeling component using MM5, as well as a brief outline of the air qual ity modeling component, and are proceeding with the meteorological component of the 2002 annual r un. Section 13.2 describes the meteorological modeling approach. It overviews MM5 (Section 13. 2.1) and the meteorology of Alaska (Section 13.2.2), and discusses the MM5 c onfiguration we chose (based on some preliminary sensitivity studies) and the procedure used to simulate the year 2002 meteorology (Sections 13.2.3 and 13.2.4). Section 13.2.5 presents the plan for ev aluating MM5’s performance in replicating the evolution of observed winds, temperature, humidity, and boundary layer morphology to the extent that resources and data av ailability allow; this will be the primary approach to assessing the reliability of the meteorological fields to ma ke sure they adequately characterize the state of the atmosphere for input to CALPUFF. Secti ons 13.3 and 13.4 briefly discuss the emissions modeling and air quality modeling approaches.



### 13.2 Meteorological Modeling Approach
The CALPUFF modeling system includes the CA LPUFF dispersion model and the diagnostic meteorological preprocessor CA LMET (California Meteorologica l Model). CALPUFF requires inputs of 3-D gridded wind, temperature, humid ity, cloud/precipitation, and boundary layer parameters. These fields are generated by CALMET, which can reprocess output fields from MM5 and supply them in a format suitable for CALPU FF. MM5 is a state-of-the-science atmosphere model that has proven very useful for air quality applications a nd has been used extensively in past local, state, regional, and national modeling efforts. It has undergone extensive peer review, with all of its components continually under going development and scrutiny by the modeling community. The MM5 modeling system software is freely provided and supported by the Mesoscale Prediction Group in the Mesoscale a nd Microscale Meteorol ogy Division of NCAR. For these reasons, MM5 is the most widely used public-domain prognostic model. In-depth descriptions of MM5 can be found in Dudhi a (1993) and Grell et al. (1994) and at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5

.


### 13.2.1 Overview of MM5

MM5 is a limited-area, terrain-f ollowing (sigma-coordinate), prognos tic meteorological model. It solves the full suite of nonhydrostatic prognostic primitive equations for the 3-D wind, temperature, water, and pressure fields. It can be run with multiple one-way or two-way nested grids to resolve a range of atmospheric processes and circ ulations on spatial scal es ranging from one to several thousands of kilometers . The model is highly modular, facilitating the interchange of physics and data assimilation options. Several opti ons exist for boundary layer schemes; resolved and sub-grid-scale cloud and prec ipitation treatments ; soil heat budget mode ls; and radiative transfer. The model equations are solved horizon tally on an Arakawa-B grid structure defined on a number of available map projectio ns. The vertical coordinate is a terrain-following normalized pressure coordinate, referred to as “sigma-p.” Typically, 30 to 50 vertical levels are used to resolve the troposphere and lowe r stratosphere to ~15 km.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

314 

### 13.2.2 The meteorology of Alaska
The meteorology of Alaska poses some unique a nd special challenges for MM5 modeling. In winter, there is little liquid water or insola tion, and temperatures and specific humidities are extremely low north of the Alaska Range. In the northern part of the domain, there is extensive sea ice in the winter in the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean; interactions between sea ice and the air above it have historically been difficult for mode ls to simulate well, and the energy exchange between the sea ice and the overl ying air is not well understood (C urry et al., 2001). In the dark of winter, the ice undergoes str ong radiative cooling, which sets up a strong temperature inversion near the surface. This also occurs over the snow-covered inland areas from the Alaska Range north. This creates an extremely stable bou ndary layer, which can then decouple from the flow aloft. It is therefore possi ble to have air masses with diffe rent origins and properties superimposed in the vertical. This can be significant in terms of air quality modeling if the overlying air mass has different chemical properties than the air below it. In addition, it is difficult for an atmosphere model to handle this type of extremel y stable boundary layer we ll, as turbulent flows in stable layers are not well understood (Mahrt , 1998). These stable laye rs can be broken up by intermittent turbulence, sometimes arising from gravity-wave generation over the Alaska Range.These events are notoriously difficult for an atmosphere model to simulate (Jeff Tilley, University of North Dakota, personal communication, 2004).
MM5-modeled temperature fields are very sensit ive to the cloud field. Small errors in cloud cover can produce large errors in the temperatur es. Because clouds can be a sub-grid-scale phenomenon, errors in characterization of the cloud fi eld are inevitable, and ma y lead to significant temperature errors, particularly in winter. For ex ample, in a region with strong radiative cooling over sea ice, if the model places a cloud where th ere is none in the real world, then the outgoing longwave radiation trapped by the modeled cloud and re-emitted dow nward will cause a spurious warming below the cloud. This will cause the m odel to overestimate the surface temperature and underestimate or entirely fail to produce the inversion th at should be there. This may have serious implications for subsequent air quality modeling.
Further complicating the characteri zation of the cloud field is the fact that some Arctic clouds have unusual properties. There are clouds composed of ice crystals that can extend down to the ground, (known as “diamond dust”). Multiple thin cl oud decks may appear in the statically stable atmosphere, and convective plumes may appear in ga ps in the sea ice (Curry et al., 2001). All of these phenomena may be difficult or impossible to capture in a model running at a maximum resolution of 15 km.

Another issue is that Alaska is so cold in winter that the some of the physical assumptions underpinning the parameterizations of moist proce sses may no longer be valid. MM5 has a POLAR option (Cassano et al., 2001) for use at high latitude that atte mpts to compensate for this problem.
Given the low population density an d often harsh conditions, it is not surprising that the observing network in Alaska is sparse compared to that of the U.S. mainland. This complicates model validation, particularly in a 15-km-resolution do main, where representative observations may be very widely spaced if one or more observing sites are down (Jeff Tilley, personal communication, 2004). The rugged Alaskan te rrain can also cause problems in model validation. ManyFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

315 stations are located in regions where meso-gam ma and microscale effects forced by topographycan form a significant part of the signal in temperature and winds (Jeff Tilley, personal communication, 2004).
In the spring and fall, the model must account fo r the breakup and formation of sea ice. Sea ice has a large effect on the surface en ergy budget, and a mischaracteriza tion of the extent of sea ice will degrade MM5’s simulation of the thermal structure of the overlying atmospheric column.



### 13.2.3 MM5 configuration
The WRAP MM5 modeling system configuration for the Alaska application is based on the work of the Mesoscale Modeling and Applications Gr oup at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF). The UAF group has extensive experience with operational numeri cal weather prediction in high latitudes using MM5 modeling ( http://knik.iarc .uaf.edu/AtmGroup ). We are building on their experience by incorporating some facets of their MM5 confi guration for use in our Alaska application.
13.2.3.1 Modeling domain
We have configured MM5 to run on two grids: a large-scale grid with 45-km grid point spacing, and a smaller, nested grid with 15-km grid point spacing focused on the Class I areas (Figure 13-2). The model is run on both grids simultaneously , but in a “one-way” ne sting mode. In this approach, information from the 45-km grid is transferred to the 15-km domain through boundary conditions during the simulation, but there is no feedback of the 15-km fields up to the 45-km domain. Another alternative is “two-way” nestin g, wherein MM5 is run for both grids simultaneously and information propagates both down- and up-scale between th e two. Our experience suggests that the choice of one-way versus two- way nesting does not sign ificantly affect model performance for regional applicatio ns with coarse grid spacing.

Our 45-km Alaska Grid is defined on a polar stereographic projecti on, with central latitude 59o N and central longitude 151o W. The grid has 109 (east-west) by 90 (north-south) dot points, and 108 (east-west) by 89 (north-south) cross points. The 15-km subreg ional grid is defined on the same polar stereographic projec tion, but covers the populated ar eas and Class I areas (see in Figure 13-2) with 15-km grid point spacing.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

316 Figure 13-2. Spatial coverage of the Alaska Grid with 45-km grid point spacing (D01) and the nested 15-km grid (D02).

13.2.3.2 Physics options and FDDA

This section details the rationale behind our choices of physic s options and FDDA for the Alaska MM5 modeling effort. As mentioned above, the 2002 annual MM5 applica tion has been configured in many aspects accordi ng to the optimum arrangement identified by the UAF group. We have also used some information from additional sensitivity tests specific to this application; these tests are discussed below.
When modeling a full year over the Alaska domain, the annual cycle of sea ice must be taken into account. The sea ice, which forms part of the atmosphere’s lower boundary condition, grows in spatial extent during fall and winter, and re treats during the spring and early summer. MM5 has an option whereby the sea ice fraction in a grid cell is diagnosed using the sea surface temperature, and this flag must be used during the winter months to ensure adequate treatment of the atmosphere’s lower boundary condition. Use of the sea ice option limits the available physics options in MM5, however, as it requires the use of the five-layer land surface model. Thus, for winter modeling, we use the sea ice option, the five-layer LSM, and the Eta PBL scheme. During summer, however, we turn off the sea ice option, which allows us to choose a more detailed land surface model. The NOAH LSM has been shown to be effective in simulating the Alaskan summer when used with the Eta PBL scheme (Jeff Tilley, personal communication, 2004), so we use this configuration as our star ting point. Note that although th e LSM/PBL/sea ice configuration changes in going from summer to winter, the re st of the physics options are held constant throughout the year.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

317 To treat stratiform clouds, we use the Reisne r 2 cloud microphysics scheme (Reisner et al., 1998). Although this scheme is more computati onally intensive than the “simple ice” option, EPA recommends that a mixed-pha se ice scheme be employed in MM5 to drive aqueous chemistry and wet scavenging in CMAQ. This is becaus e the simple ice approach treats all condensed water forms as a single liquid variable, which when passed to CMAQ overstates the quantity of liquid cloud and precipitation wate r available for chemistry and removal. Furthermore, the next version of CMAQ will include separate contribu tions from precipitating ice (graupel). Although the initial Alaska visibility modeling will be done with CALP UFF, subsequent air quality modeling of Alaska may be done with CMAQ, so we selected the Reisner 2 cloud microphysics scheme to allow the use of CMAQ at a later date . For cumulus convection, we selected the Grell scheme, which has been used successfully by the UAF group. Cumulus convection is not expected to play a large role in the Alaska simulation during winter, but significant convection can occur in the summer, particularly in the De nali area. Convection in this region is driven largely by topographic/land surface forcings (Jeff Tilley, personal communication, 2004). Sensitivity tests regarding the cumulus parameterizati on may be carried out at a later date, depending on model performance.
Next, we needed to select a radiation scheme and an FDDA configuration. We performed several sensitivity tests to determine the appropriate c onfiguration. These tests are summarized in Table 13-1. Below is listing of the various schemes te sted in this study and an explanation of the abbreviations used in the table.

• Land Surface Models: NOAH LSM; Pleim-Xiu LSM (PX); five-layer LSM

• Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes: Eta PBL; Pleim-Xiu PBL (PX)

• Cumulus Scheme: Grell

• Radiation Schemes: Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM); Community Climate Model 2 (CCM2); CLOUD

• IPOLAR: Y = sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) vary with time; N = SSTs do not vary with time

• IEXSI: 0 = no sea ice fraction information; 1 = sea ice fraction is diagnosed from SST

• Cloud Microphysics Scheme: Reisner 2

• Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation: W = wind; T = temperature; RH= relative humidity

Table 13-1. Summary of MM5 configuration for sensitivity tests.

Run ID* LSM PBL Cumulus Radiation IPOLAR IEXSI Microphysics Analysis FDDA 3-D Surface Obs FDDA
Run_S1 NOAH Eta Grell RRTM Y 0 Reisner 2 W/T/RH W/T/RH None Run_S2 NOAH Eta Grell CCM2 Y 0 Reisner 2 W/T/RH W/T/RH None Run_S4 PX PX Grell RRTM Y 0 Reisner 2 W/T/RH W/T/RH NoneFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

318

Run ID* LSM PBL Cumulus Radiation IPOLAR IEXSI Microphysics Analysis FDDA 3-D Surface Obs FDDA Run_W1 5-layer Eta Grell RRTM Y 1 Reisner 2 W/T/RH W/T/RH None Run_W1b 5-layer Eta Grell RRTM Y 1 Reisner 2 W/T/RH W/T/RH W Run_W2 5-layer Eta Grell CCM2 Y 1 Reisner 2 W/T/RH W/T/RH None Run_W3 5-layer Eta Grell CLOUD Y 1 Reisner 2 W/T/RH W/T/RH None *In the run IDs, “S” stands for “summer” (July) and “W” stands for “winter” (January)

The results of the tests are discussed below. As in Section 4, we organi ze our analysis discussion around soccer plots, which display average perfor mance statistics for a particular modeled time period. Soccer plots are shown for wind speed bi as versus wind speed RMSE, temperature bias versus temperature error, and humidity bias versus humidity error. In each plot, a solid blue line indicates the benchmark. The benchmark was generated by considering the performance statistics from approximately 50 MM5 and RAMS simu lations performed in support of air quality modeling studies in the continenta l U.S. (Tesche et al., 2002). A so ccer plot, therefore, places the current MM5 model run in the context of prior meteorological databases used for air quality modeling. A data point that falls inside the box represents a model run that meets the performance benchmark. Perfect model performance is indi cated by a data point at (0,0). The closer a data point is to the origin, the better the m odel’s performance. We emphasize that the benchmarks are not used as acceptance/rejection criter ia of the MM5 model simulation. Rather, they put the MM5 model performance into perspective and allow the identification of potential problems in the MM5 fields. Furthermore, the be nchmarks are mainly for ozone episodes in the continental U.S., which typically occur in mete orological conditions very different from those found in Alaska.
Most prior modeling efforts in Alaska have us ed the RRTM or CCM2 radiation schemes. They showed that RRTM performed better in some cases while CCM2 did better in others, and there was no guidance to determine a priori which would be the best choice for this application (Jeff Tilley, personal communication, 2004). We tested three MM5 radiation schemes: CCM2, RRTM, and CLOUD. The CLOUD radi ative package was widely used before the advent of the RRTM scheme, and has a simpler treatment of th e longwave absorption than RRTM, which uses the correlated- k method of calculating absorption coe fficients. The shortwave treatments in CLOUD and RRTM are similar. We tested the CLOUD scheme in order to have a range of complexity of parameterization when evaluating the sensitivity of the Alaska simulation to the choice of radiation scheme. We ran MM5 for a five -day period in July and a five-day period in January to span the range of c limatological conditions the model wa s likely to encounter in the annual 2002 run. We examined the results on both the 15-km and 45-km domains.
The surface wind performance for th e three runs testing the different radiation schemes is shown in Figure 13-3. Runs W1_45km, W2_45km, and W3_45km are othe rwise identical 45-km January runs that differ only in the radiation scheme used (the W1b Ja nuary run, designed to test the effect of observational nudging, is discussed late r). The winter runs are shown by blue symbols without borders. The correspondi ng 15-km model runs are shown by blue symbols with black borders. The summer runs (S1 andS2) are displa yed using the same convention for 45- and 15-Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

319 km runs, but are shown in red * (the S4 July run, designed to te st the effect of LSM scheme, is discussed later).

Alaska: 45 km and 15 km Wind Performance

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Wind Speed Bias (m/s)WindSpeed RMSE (m/s)

Benchmark W1 45 km W2 45 km W3 45 km S1 45 km S2 45 km W1 15 km

W2 15 km W3 15 km W1b S1 15 km S2 15 km S4 15 km Run 1: RRTM Run 2: CCM2 Run 3: CLOUD

Figure 13-3. Wind soccer plot for winter and summer Alaska sensitivity tests.

A comparison of winter Runs W1_45km through W3_45km shows that there is not much difference among the three radiation schemes in terms of model performance; the three points are tightly clustered and lie outside the benchmark, with a slight low wind speed bias. At 15 km, the three winter runs (Runs W1_15k m, W2_15km, W3_15km) were agai n quite similar in terms of performance, and there was a stronger low wind speed bias on the higher-resolution 15-km grid.
Figure 13-4 displays the temperature performan ce of the winter runs W1 through W3 and the summer runs S1 and S2. Most of the runs fell with in or near the benchmark for bias, but outside the benchmark for error. In the 45-km series of winter runs, the RRTM (Run W1_45km) and CLOUD (Run W3_45km) runs were comparable, but the CCM2 (Run W2_45km) run had a cold bias that was nearly twice as large as those of RRTM and CLOUD. There was little difference in the error among the three runs. In winter at 15 km, the bias changed sign and increased somewhat for RRTM and CLOUD, and the error decreased slightly. For CCM2, however, bias and error both increased.

* Note that the summer runs used different LSM schemes, a different IEXSI setting, and, in the case of run S4, a different PBL scheme than the winter runs (see Table 13-1), so the summer and winter runs are not directly comparable with each other for examining the effects of the radiation schemes.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

320 Alaska: 45 and 15 km Temperature Performance

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Temperature Bias (K)Temeprature Error (K)

Benchmark W1 45 km W2 45 km W3 45 km S1 45 km
S2 45 km W1 15 km W2 15 km W3 15 km W1b 15 km
S1 15 km S2 15 km S4 15 km Run 1: RRTM Run 2: CCM2 Run 3: CLOUD

Figure 13-4. Temperature soccer plot for winter and summer Alaska sensitivity tests.

In the summer 45-km runs, there was not much difference in temperature between the RRTM (Run S1_45km) and CCM2 (Run S2_45km). At 15 km, both bias and error in the CCM2 run (Run S2_15km) were reduced to the point where they lay within the benchmark. In the RRTM run (Run S1_15km), on the other hand, the bias decreased bu t error increased.
The humidity soccer plot (Figure 13-5) shows all runs in summer and winter tightly clustered within the benchmark. Humidity performance is quite good relative to the benchmark, but it is worth noting again that the benchmark is based on MM5 and RAMS simulations of regions in the continental U.S. In these regions, the specific humidities are generally higher than in Alaska, and the fact that the Alaska runs fall within the benchmark may be a reflection of the lower Alaskan humidity rather than an indication of good model performance. Since the humidity performance was consistent acro ss the sensitivity tests, humidity was not a useful metric for selecting a radiation scheme.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

321 Alaska: 45 km and 15 km Humidity Performance

0 1 2 3 4 5

-3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 Humidity Bias (g/kg)Humidity Error (g/kg)

Benchmark W1 45 km W2 45 km W3 45 km S1 45 km S2 45 km W1 15 km W2 15 km W3 15 km W1b 15 km S1 15 km S2 15 km S4 15 km Run 1: RRTM Run 2: CCM2 Run 3: CLOUD

Figure 13-5. Humidity soccer plot for winter and summer Alaska sensitivity tests.

Based on the surface wind and temperature performance, the CCM2 scheme did not sufficiently improve MM5 performance to justify its added co mputational burden (~20%), so we selected the RRTM parameterization to be the radiat ion scheme for summer and winter.
In the next sensitivity test we looked at the choice of LSM for th e summer months. Recall that in winter, we must use the five-layer LSM in order to turn on the sea ice parameterization. In summer, however, we are free to select the best-per forming LSM scheme for this application. The Pleim-Xiu scheme has been shown to perform we ll over the continental U.S. (Olerud and Sims, 2003; Kemball-Cook et al., 2004) and also allows use of the Pleim deposition scheme in subsequent CMAQ modeling; we therefore made a r un (S4) using the Pleim-Xiu scheme and the RRTM radiation scheme for the July time period. The 15-km results for wind (Figure 13-3) show a reduction in the low wind speed bias relative to the other 15-km summer runs, and little change in the RMSE. For temperature (Figure 13-4), the bi as increased and the error decreased relative to the other 15-km run that used the RRTM radiation scheme (Run S1_15km). The humidity soccer plot (Figure 13-5) shows a change of sign in the bias, and a small increase in error. Overall, the Pleim-Xiu scheme did not cause signif icant improvement, so we elected to use the NOAH/Eta LSM/PBL comb ination for summer.
In summary, Tables 13-2 and 13-3 give the MM5 physics options we used for the winter and summer months, respectively.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

322 Table 13-2. Physics options selected for the 2002 WRAP winter Alaska MM5 simulation. Physics Option Parameterization Cloud microphysics Reisner 2 Cumulus parameterization Grell Planetary boundary layer Eta Land surface model Five-layer Model
Radiation RRTM Shallow convection None Varying SST with time? (IPOLAR) Yes Sea ice (IEXSI ) Yes
Snow cover Simple Snow Model

Table 13-3. Physics options selected for the 2002 WRAP summer Alaska MM5 simulation. Physics Option Parameterization Cloud microphysics Reisner 2 Cumulus parameterization Grell Planetary boundary layer Eta Land surface model NOAH
Radiation RRTM Shallow convection None Varying SST with time? (IPOLAR) Yes Sea ice (IEXSI ) No
Snow cover No

Regarding FDDA capabilities to use in the Alas ka simulations, we configured MM5 to use FDDA to nudge the model toward observed wind, temperature, and moisture fields on both the 45-km and 15-km grids throughout the 2002 annual si mulation. Specifically, analysis (or grid) nudging was performed at three-hourly intervals for both the 2-D surface fields and the 3-D fields aloft, excluding the bounda ry layer depth. Excluding th e boundary layer in the FDDA process removes the potential for damping out resolved mesoscale fo rcings in the model that are important to boundary layer development and thus the vertical fluxes of momentum, heat, and moisture into the free atmosphere and to the surface. Two-dimensional surface nudging was based on NCAR/National Centers for Environmen tal Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis Project (NNRP) surface analyses, but were enhanced via the “little_R” program using hourly NWSFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

323 surface observations from NCAR dataset ds472. * The analysis nudging coefficients we chose to use are shown in Table 13-4.

Table 13-4. FDDA analysis nudging coefficients (s -1 ). Data Type 45 km 15 km
Wind 2.5 × 10 -4 1.0 × 10 -4 Temperature 2.5 × 10 -4 1.0 × 10 -4 Water vapor 1.0 × 10 -5 1.0 × 10 -5

In addition to analysis nudging, FDDA may be us ed to nudge the model solution toward observational data at individual measur ement sites (i.e., “station” or “observational” nudging). Usually this option is best suited for smaller, high-reso lution grids in which data from a very dense network of measurement sites are available (such as an intensive field study). The next sensitivity test was designed to test the effect of observational ( obs) nudging using the ds472 surface meteorological observation networ k (Figure 13-6). Obs nudging of the winds was performed for the winter W1 configuration (R un W1b in Table 13-1), and the effect on the surface wind speed performance is shown in Figure 13-3. With obs nudging turned on, the low wind speed bias increased and the RMSE decreased relative to the comparable un-nudged run W1. For temperature (Figure 13-4) and humidity (Figure 13-5), the difference in performance between runs W1 and W1b is nearly indistingui shable. Although this test of nudging was not conclusive, we elected to proceed with observational nudging of winds.

* Note that the NNRP analysis fields are used instead of the usual EDAS fields because Alaska falls out of the EDAS domain.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

324 Figure 13-6. Stations contributing data used for observational nudging.



### 13.2.4 Procedure to simulate the year 2002
Once we had selected model configurations for su mmer and winter that w ould ensure reasonable model performance in both seasons, the annual simulation for the year 2002 was begun. The January-June 2002 time period of the simulati on was done at UCR and July-December 2002 was done at ENVIRON. The 2002 annual simulation was made in sequential five-day run segments, each with an initial spin-up period of 12 h that overlaps the last 12 h of the preceding run. This is done so that the air quality model can be started at either 00Z or 12Z without including the MM5 re-initialization period. MM5 wa s re-initialized at the beginning of each five-day period to reduce error propagation through the simulation. The 2002 annual simulation included the final two weeks of December 2001 to allow sufficient spin-up time for photochemical/visibility applications with start dates at the beginning of January 2002. The model was run with 90-s and 30-s time steps on the 45-km and 15-km grids, respectively. The MM5 annual run for 2002 is now complete, and analysis of the results is underway.



### 13.2.5 Evaluation procedures for the 2002 annual run

13.2.5.1 Overview
The goal of the evaluation is to determine whet her the meteorological fi elds are sufficiently accurate to properly characterize the transport, chemistry, and removal processes in CALPUFF.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

325 If errors in the meteorological fiel ds are too large, the ability of the air quality model to replicate regional pollutant levels over the entire base y ear will be compromised. To provide a reasonable meteorological characterization to the photochemical/vis ibility model, MM5 must represent the following with some fidelity:

• Large-scale weather patterns (i.e., synoptic patterns depicted in the 850-300–mb height fields), as these are key forci ngs for mesoscale circulations

• Mesoscale and regional wind, temperature, PB L height, humidity, and cloud/precipitation patterns

• Mesoscale circulations such as sea br eezes and mountain/drainage circulations

• Diurnal cycles in PBL depth, temperature, and humidity
For visibility applications, the moisture and condensate fields are particularly important, as they significantly impact PM chemical formation, rem oval, and light scattering efficiency. In addition, cloud and precipitation fields are a good meas ure of the integrated performance of the model because these are model-derived quantitie s and not nudged to observations. Because of the coarse resolutions of 45 and 15 km, the model cannot be expected to faithfully simulate the pattern or variability of the convective precipitation, but s hould reproduce th e synoptic precipitation and cloud patterns.
In this study, the basis for the performance assessment is a comparison of the predicted meteorological fields with availa ble surface and aloft data that ar e collected, analyzed, and disseminated by NWS. This is being carried out both graphically and statistically to evaluate model performance for winds, temperature, humidity, and the placement, intensity , and evolution of key weather phenomena. For example, Figure 13-7 sh ows a comparison of modeled and observed upper-air soundings for a weather st ation in the Alaska domain. A specific set of statistics has been identified for use in establishing benchm arks for acceptable model performance (Emery et al., 2001); these benchmarks, similar to current EP A guidance criteria for air quality model performance, are intended to allow for a consiste nt comparison of various meteorological simulations for important variables at the surface a nd in the boundary layer. ENVIRON has developed a statistical analysis software package, METS TAT, to calculate and graphically present the statistics described above.
13.2.5.2 Surface statistical analyses

The statistical evaluation of the Alaska MM5 surface fields using NCAR dataset ds472, which contains hourly observations of th e commonly measured variables fr om airports in the U.S. and Canada. The network of ds472 stations used in the Alaska MM5 evaluation is shown in Figure 13-8. Variables in the ds472 data set include temperature, de w point, wind speed/direction and gusts, cloud cover fraction and cloud base for mul tiple cloud layers, visu al range, precipitation rates and snow cover, and a descri ptive weather code. The key data of interest were extracted for the modeled domain, and processed into the appr opriate formats for METSTAT that is used to generate time-series plots of observed and mode led surface wind, temperature, and humidity and relevant performance statistics. Example time series of observed and estimated temperature performance for a preliminary Alaska MM5 si mulation for January 2002 are shown in Figure 13-9.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

326 Figure 13-7. Observed (black) and modele d (red) temperature and dew point soundings for a sample weather station (BRW) in the Alaska domain for July 3, 2002.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

327 

## -17 5 -170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -14 5 -140 -13 5 -130 -12 5 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 ds472 Stations in the Alaska Modeling Domai n

Figure 13-8. NCAR ds472 surface observing netw ork stations in the 45-km Alaska domain.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

328 Observed/Predicted Temperature

267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274

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Figure 13-9. Example of METSTAT graphics from a WRAP Alaska January 2002 sensitivity test.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

329 As described above, care must be taken in se lecting an area for averaging when calculating model performance statistics. One problem with av erage evaluation statistics is that the more data pairings a given metric includes, the better the statistic generally looks, so calculating a single set of statistics for a very large area would not yield signif icant insight into performance. Therefore, a balance must be struck betw een taking an area large enough to create a representative sample but not c hoosing such a large area as to sm ear out the signal of interest. For Alaska, the observing network is sufficiently sparse that we must average over the entire domain or else we may not have enough data poi nts to form a meaningful average. However, special attention needs to be given to the meteorological mode l performance near the Class I areas of interest.
The METSTAT statistical package is used to calculate hourly and daily statistical measures, and compare them against the Emery et al. (2001) benchmarks (see Section 13.2.5.1) for acceptable model performance. Potential reasons for any poor statistical performa nce for particular variables, times, and/or subr egions are being investigated and documented in an evaluation report.


### 13.2.6 CALMET modeling
To generate the 3-D gridded wi nd, temperature, humidity, clo ud/precipitation, and boundary layer parameters required by CALPUFF for ai r quality modeling, the CALMET meteorological preprocessor was used. As we noted earlier, CALMET can reprocess output fields from MM5 and supply them in a format suitable for CALPUFF. The 2002 MM5 output discussed in Section 4 was processed using the CALMM program to create files of the format and with the variables needed by CALMET. CALMET was run initially using the MM5 data as input in the NOOBS mode; this mode uses the MM5 data only, w ithout any surface or upper-air observations. The feasibility of running with meteorological observ ations in addition to the MM5 data is being investigated along with the eval uation of the use of 15-km vers us 5-km grid resolution for CALMET/CALPUFF modeling.



### 13.3 Emissions Modeling Approach
In June 2004, the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) submitted 2002 annual emissions for major point sources and railr oad emissions to EPA for inclusion in EPA’s initial 2002 NEI. These data are undergoing correc tions and will be resubmitted in the future. Previously, ADEC submitted 1999 criteria pollutant inventories for Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau for all source categories (point, area, and mobile) that are included in the EPA 1999 NEI Version 2 (NEI99 v2). Day-specifi c 2002 emissions for major point sources, such as EGUs, are available from EPA’s Acid Rain Database (ARDB). ADEC intends to have additional 2002 emissions data ready by the March-April 2005 time frame. Also, WRAP has contracted to obtain aviation and rural area emissions for Alaska that should be ready in spring 2005.
The Alaska air quality sensitivity modeling wa s initiated in late 2004 and will be completed during 2005. The following approach is being used to develop an Alaskan emissions inventory for sensitivity modeling:Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

330 • Acquire (1) the latest 2002 poi nt-source and railroad emissi ons inventories and (2) the 1999 Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau criteri a pollutant emissions inventories for the three main Alaska urban areas.

• Download the Alaska 2002 major-point -source emissions from the ARDB.

• Combine the 2002 ARDB, 2002 point-source and railroad, and 1999 criteria pollutant emissions databases, eliminating duplicate so urces by keeping the source characteristics according to the following priorities: 2002 ARDB, 2002 point/railroad, and 1999 criteria.

• Process emissions into CALPUFF format in separate files by major source categories, such as major point sources, minor point sour ces, railroads, on-road mobile sources, and other sources.



### 13.4 Air Quality Modeling Approach
As discussed at the beginning of Section 13.2, preliminary air quality modeling using the 2002 MM5 meteorological fields for Alaska, processe d first through CALMET (see Section 13.2.6), will be conducted using CALPUFF, a Lagrangian (trajectory) puff model. This model is typically used to simulate the concentration and deposition impacts due to a source or group of sources. Species that CALPUFF tr eats include primary PM (e.g., PM 2.5 , PM 10 , EC, and OC), SO 2 , NO x , and secondary sulfate and nitrate PM. We w ill use the model to simulate the effect of primary emissions of PM, NO x , and SO 2 on atmospheric PM (e.g., primary PM and SO 4 and NO 3 ) in Alaska, including the three Class I areas in the Alaska CALMET/CALPUFF modeling domain. Separate CALPUFF simula tions will be made by major source category, and the results will be summed by CALPOST to estimate visibility impairment at the Class I areas.
At this time we are not proposing to use a more comprehensive photochemical grid model, such as CMAQ, to simulate air quality in Alaska beca use such models require emissions data from all sources, which as noted in Section 13.3 are not yet available for Alaska. The CALPUFF air quality modeling of Alaska is ongoing and will be completed in 2005.



### 13.5 Status of Task 12 Deliverables
Table 13-5 gives the status of each Task 12 de liverable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliv erables agreed upon after th e work plan was prepared.

Table 13-5. Status of the Task 12 deliverables.

Deliverable Status Conduct 2002 MM5 sensitivity runs for Janua ry and July 2002 Completed December 2004 Conduct 2002 annual MM5 simulati ons Completed February 2005 Initiate CALMET/CALPUFF runs To be completed in 2005Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

331 

## 14. Task 13: Training Courses for the WRAP States and Tribes

14.1 Work Performed from Ma rch 2004 through February 2005
Training needs were uncertain at the beginning of 2004, so a contingency fund was included in the 2004 funding to allow training to be conduc ted as needed. Basic training in CMAQ and SMOKE is routinely being provided through th e Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Center, which is hosted at UNC-CEP. Since this is the mo st efficient method to provide basic SMOKE/CMAQ training, it was determined that the RMC would provide “advanced training.” Based on discussions w ith WRAP members, we develope d a one-day training class for managers (i.e., non-modeling staff) that provides an introduction to the te chnical aspects of the modeling program, including definition of termin ology, an introduction to the modeling system, and explanations of the products from the m odeling activity and how to access them. A major goal of this class is to enhance the ability of managers to presen t and explain modeling results to their constituents.
The content of the training was selected after extensive discussions with WRAP members. An initial one-day training class was conducted in conjunction with the Attribution of Haze meeting held in September 2004. Additional training classes will be offered as needed.
During 2004, another training opportunity emerged: training to assist staff at state and tribal air pollution agencies in setting up and operating the visibi lity modeling system, including the aspects of hardware, operating systems, and in stallation and operation of models and datasets and the associated computers. We are engaged in several activities related to this need. For example, we are producing a fre quently asked questions (FAQ) sheet that explains how to install an operating system and the modeling system on a Linux PC, and includes recommendations for computer hardware appropriate for the modeling system users’ needs. This FAQ sheet will be posted on the project web page.
After providing some assistance to one state in setting up a specialized operating system for managing parallel computers, we determined that the best use of RMC resources would be to limit the assistance we provide to supporting a single, standard insta llation of Linux and the modeling system.
The original funding budgeted for training and te chnology transfer in the 2004 RMC work plan was $85,000, with activities to be defined depending on training needs during 2004. Per agreement with the WRAP Modeling Forum, so me of these funds were rebudgeted for other activities. On July 30, 2004, we rebudgeted $20,000 to perform additional MM5 testing and sensitivity simulations to improve the meteorol ogy data used in the air quality modeling. The additional MM5 testing was a high priority because the MM5 pe rformance in the WRAP region was inferior to that in other regions of the Un ited States. The additiona l MM5 sensitivity testing resulted in new parameters for the MM5 conf iguration that substantially improved MM5’sFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

332 performance in the WRAP states. In a Se ptember 2004 conference call, we rebudgeted an additional $20,000 to purchase new computer equipment, including additional RAID5 disk storage and parts to build ei ght additional dual-CPU compute nodes. UCR charged $25,000 for training activities in 2004. At the end of December 2004, U CR carried over a balance of $100,420, which included funding of $20,000 budgete d for training and technology transfer.



### 14.2 Status of Task 13 Deliverables
Table 14-1 gives the status of each Task 13 de liverable listed in the 2004 WRAP RMC work plan, plus any additional deliv erables agreed upon after th e work plan was prepared.

Table 14-1. Status of the Task 13 deliverables.

Deliverable Status Develop material for a one-day introductory training class Completed. Training agenda and PowerPoint files are available at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/re ports/training/Model_Training.htm Offer first class in Salt Lake City in September 2004 Completed.

Provide support in computer systems configuration to Arizona DEQ Initial support task complete. Additional support available as needed.

Develop a hardware and software FAQ sheet to be accessed on the RMC web site In progress; to be updated periodically.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

333 

## 15. Summary of Work for March 1, 2004, through February 28, 2005

15.1 Task 0.5: 2002 Ammonia Emissi ons Inventory for WRAP Region
The RMC has developed an ammonia emissions inventory that include s livestock operations, fertilizer application, native soils, domestic sources, and wild animals, to be used for gridded modeling in the WRAP region. The inventory was created using the improvements and estimation methodologies described in Se ction 2 and documented in de tail in Chitjian and Mansell (2003a,b). These inventory enhancements were a ssociated with the effects of environmental parameters on the emission factors, and with the temporal and spatial allocation of NH 3 emissions for several source categories. The improveme nts were based on the results of a literature survey of recent research in NH 3 emissions inventory development. We developed a GIS-based NH 3 emissions modeling system and applied it fo r calendar year 2002 to generate a gridded, hourly emissions inventory for the WRAP modeli ng domain at a spatial resolution of 36 km. The data sources and environmental factors used in the inventory improve ments were presented previously and in more detail in th e draft task report (Mansell, 2004a).
On a regional scale, the 2002 NH 3 emissions inventory is domina ted by fertilizer application and livestock operation emissions. This result is entir ely consistent with the current understanding of NH 3 emission within the air quality and emi ssions modeling community. Ammonia emission from native soils, while a major component of the overall inventory, remains highly uncertain. This uncertainty arises mainly from the current differences of opinion in the research community with respect to whether soils act as a source or a sink of NH 3 . Ammonia emission from domestic sources, while only a small contri butor to the total regional NH 3 inventory, can be a major source of emissions on smaller, urban scales. The wild animal NH 3 emissions are only a small portion of the inventory.
Section 2.3.6 compares the WRAP NH 3 inventory with similar results obtained from the CMU Ammonia Model; this is discusse d in greater detail in Manse ll (2004a). Based on state-level comparison, the results of this task are seen to be consistent with existing NH 3 emissions inventories. Evaluation of the differences and sim ilarities, and a further investigation of the two inventories for detailed source cate gories at the county level, may provide useful insight into potential improvements and enhancements to the inventory and to the emissions modeling system.
Based on the results of this task, we make a number of recommendati ons (see Section 2.4.2) regarding improvements in data quality and refinements to the NH 3 inventory and emissions modeling system.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

334 

### 15.2 Task 1: Project Administration
The major activities in this task included:

• Communication with WRAP to define the scop e of work, approach and specific tasks, and deliverables, and to communicate project results

• Coordination among the three contractors (one prime cont ractor, two subcontractors)

• Computer systems administra tion, including computer hard ware, software, project web site, and mailing lists

• Contract administration
Because of the evolving and sometimes uncerta in nature of the regulatory framework and guidance for visibility SIPs and TIPs, extensive discussion is required to carefully define the scope of work and deliverables. Moreover, beca use the RMC includes thr ee different contractors who receive data from several WRAP contract ors and WRAP forums, the project requires frequent communication. Projec t communication and coordination is handled through monthly conference calls with the WRAP modeling forum co chairs on the second Monday of each month, and through a conference call with the WRAP Modeling Foru m on the following Monday of each month. Additional conference calls are schedul ed as needed, typically at least one call per week, for detailed follow-up on specific tasks. Pr ogress and refinement of task definitions are also frequently discussed by e-mail and phone communications.
Computer systems for the RMC are maintain ed at UCR. ENVIRON and UNC staff have accounts on these computer systems so that all pr oject staff can perform simulations on the RMC computers. Because there are “down times” be tween model simulations, computer resources funded by WRAP and other agencies can be shared. This provides an important efficiency in the use of computer resources and allows WRAP to benefit by having access to a larger number of computers when WRAP simulations are being performed.
The RMC web site and e-mail listserv are the prim ary method of communicating project results. These are updated regularly.
Finally, contract administration is also a comp lex and time-consuming activity that involves contract administration staff at WGA, UCR, UNC, and ENVIRON. Difficulty in communicating with or between administrative staff members at these institutions can sometimes be a significant source of frustration and dela y in managing the project.



### 15.3 Task 2: Test, Improve, Quali ty Control, Obtain External Peer Review, and Finalize 36-km and 12-km MM5 Simulations for Eventual Use in CMAQ

The RMC has carried out MM5 simulations for th e entirety of 2002 to su pport CMAQ visibility modeling for the §308 SIPs/TIPs. During the fall of 2003, we made an initial MM5 run for 2002 on the RPO Unified Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain. This simulation used an MM5 model configuration similar to what has been used by the other RPOs (i.e., VISTAS, CENRAP,Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

335 MRPO). For this run, the modeling system perf ormed better in the central and eastern United States than in the West, and in general performe d better in winter than in summer (Morris et al., 2004a; Kemball-Cook et al., 2004). In the western U. S., the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle was persistently un derestimated during the summer, esp ecially in the Southwest. In the desert Southwest, the humidity was greatly overestimated during the summer as well, and there was a pronounced cold bias.
WRAP then requested that we perform further MM5 sensitivity tests to identify a better-performing model configuration for the western states. We ran sensitivity tests in which four physics options were changed: (1) the cumulus paramete rization, (2) the LSM, (3) the PBL model, and (4) the FDDA. As a result of these tests, we obtained an improved MM5 configuration that provided better results.
The 36-km MM5 runs we made with this improve d configuration showed a dramatic reduction in the summertime cold, wet bias in the desert So uthwest. The surface temperature and humidity performance are now within benchmarks for all WRAP subdomains, except the desert Southwest for temperature. The new confi guration gives a more accurate re presentation of the diurnal temperature cycle in the desert Southwest as well as a more realistic precipitation pattern over the western United States. Model performan ce over the eastern U.S. also improved.
After settling on a configuration for the 36-km a nnual run, we turned ou r attention to MM5's performance on the nested WRAP 12 -km grid. Further sensitivity te sts at this resolution were undertaken, allowing for the possibility that the 36-km physics options might differ from those selected for the 12-km run. Improved MM5 perf ormance using the new configuration was also seen on the 12-km grid. Therefore, a new annual 36/12-km 2002 MM5 simulation was conducted and the results subjected to a model performance evaluation. The revised WRAP 2002 MM5 36-km results were compared against those for the initial WRAP 2002 36-km simulation, as well as the CENRAP and VISTAS 2002 36-km MM5 simulations. The results from the new WRAP 36-km and 12-km results were also compared. Details of these activities can be found at http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/mm5_reports04.shtml

.


### 15.4 Task 3: 2002 Base Year Emissions Modeling, Processing, and Analysis
The four preliminary 2002 emissions simulations conducted by the RMC duri ng this project year have served to prepare us for the final 2002 simu lation and emissions sensitivities that will begin in 2005. The WRAP emissions modeling QA pr otocol—which includes the generation of comprehensive documentation, implementation of the Bugzilla project management system, and using CVS for version control—ha s proved to be a success. Using a team of emissions modelers, each with well-defined roles, worked well for managing the complex emissions modeling project at the RMC.
A summary of the major em ission modeling tasks comple ted in 2004 by the WRAP RMC includes the following:

• 2002 WRAP emissions inventory database development: This task included collection, QA, and enhancement of 2002 emissions inventories for the U.S., Canada, andFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

336 Mexico. We collected inventor y data from WRAP inventor y contractors, other RPOs, and EPA to build the WRAP inventory database for preliminary 2002 emissions modeling. The database is hosted at the RMC and will provided the basis for the final 2002 modeling that will be completed in 2005.

• Simulation Pre02a_36: We used this first prelimin ary 2002 simulation to test the emissions modeling QA protocol , collect a first set of 2002 inventories, and diagnose any problems with the em issions modeling system.

• Simulation Pre02b_36: The annual extension of simu lation Pre02a_36, this simulation contained some data updates and pr oduced the first results used in CMAQ modeling by the RMC.

• Simulation Pre02c_36: This annual simulation was cr eated by the addition of actual 2002 wildfires and prescribed fires and typi cal-year agri cultural fires to Pre02b_36.

• Simulation Pre02c_36s01: A one-month sensitivity to test the effects of the diesel retrofit emissions control pr ogram in the WRAP region.

• Simulation Pre02d_36: Several data updates, incl uding new 2002 fires, actual 2002 VISTAS inventories, windblown dust, and anthropogenic ammonia emissions, created the last annual simulation of the year.

• Simulation Pre02d_12: An annual fine-grid nest of simulation Pre02d_36 on the WRAP 12-km modeling grid.

• Simulation Pre02e_36: An annual fire sensitivity to test the effects of natural fires.

• Simulation Pre02f_36: An annual fire sensitivity to test the effects of the updated 2002 fire inventories.
With the emissions modeling and QA infrastructu re now fully developed, we are well prepared to begin the final 2002 emissions mo deling, as well as the host of derivative sensitivities for evaluating the impacts of natural emissions on re gional haze (Task 6 in th e 2004 work plan, to be continued in 2005).



### 15.5 Task 4: Air Quality Model Evaluation for 2002 Annual Simulation

The RMC performed a CMAQ 2002 annual model simulation on the RPO Unified Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain and the WRAP west ern U.S. 12-km domain using the final WRAP 2002 MM5 meteorological fields and the Base Ca se D (pre02d) emissions inputs. We then conducted an operational model performance evaluation that compared the CMAQ model estimates against observations from the IMPROV E, CASTNet, STN, and NADP networks in the WRAP region.

• Model performance for sulfate was reasonably good, albeit with a winter overestimation bias of 20% to 80% and a summer underestim ation bias that reached as low as –20%.

• Nitrate performance was generally poor, w ith a winter overestimation (~ +100%) and summer underestimation (~ -100%) bias a nd large (100%-140%) errors. With theFinal Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

337 exception of California, summer NO 3 levels are low, so the summer underestimation bias is not as big a concern as the overe stimation bias in winter, when NO 3 makes up a larger fraction of the visibility extinction.

• Organic carbon performance exhibited less seas onal variation and is overstated in the winter. The CMAQ 36-km and 12-km OC perf ormances are quite different from each other: summer OC bias was generally within ±10% using the 36-km grid, but OC is underestimated by -30% when the 12-km grid is used.

• Performance for elemental carbon was genera lly fairly good, with low (<±20%) monthly bias across the year, although w ith a fair amount of scatter (i.e., errors of 60%-80%).

• “Other fine PM” (soil) was overstated in the winter, with fairly low bias in the summer. Coarse mass, on the other hand, was understa ted throughout the year, with winter bias of -40% to -80% and summer bias exceedi ng -100%. The reasons for the poor soil and CM performance are related to (1) model-versus-measur ement incommensurability, whereby modeled soil and CM may include di fferent components from those included in the measured values; (2) uncertainties a nd missing emissions (e.g., windblown dust); and (3) local (sub-grid-scale) impacts that are not captured by the model.
In summary, although there are noticeable ar eas of improvement needed in the 2002 CMAQ pre02d model performance, the performance is substantially better th an the CMAQ 1996 simulation used in the §309 analysis. Performance for SO 4 and EC is generall y fairly good, whereas performance of NO 3 and CM is poor.



### 15.6 Task 5: Preparation and Re porting of Geographic Source Apportionment Results
During 2003, UCR developed the Tagged Species Source Apportionment (TSSA) algorithm in CMAQ version 4.2.2 to assess source attribution. In 2004 we ported this code to a beta release of CMAQ version 4.4. However, it was disc overed that there were problems with mass conservation in the model that made it difficult to fully attribute PM mass at receptor sites to emissions sources. We expended significant effort in the source attribution modeling task, which included debugging and refining the algorithm, co mpleting the annual sour ce attribution model simulation, and presenting and pr oviding results to WRAP and its other contractors. Some uncertainty remains in the source attribution because of probl ems with mass conservation in CMAQ. This creates uncertainty in some of the s ource attribution results, especially with respect to the contribution of boundary conditions. However, we have more confidence in the ranking of the relative source attribution for the tagged s ources other than boundary conditions. As part of Task 7, we also performed source attribution si mulations for February a nd July using the CAMx Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (PSA T). In general the PSAT results were consistent with the CMAQ TSSA results, althoug h there were significan t differences in the relative ranking of sources at some receptor site s. Any additional sour ce attribution modeling should be performed using the CAMx PSAT model while we complete fu rther testing of the TSSA algorithm in a new release of CMAQ that corrects some mass conservation errors.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

338 

### 15.7 Task 6: Further Analysis of Model Performance in Regard to the Contribution of Natural Emissions to Visibility Impairment
The RMC used 2004 to focus on identifying the sour ces of haze impacting the WRAP region. By reviewing cursory model simulations we pe rformed in 2003, EPA regional haze guidance documentation, and research completed by other RPOs, we established a direction for defining the distinction between natura l and anthropogenic emissions s ources contributing to regional visibility impairment. We ci rculated a memorandum in 2004 defining the various natural emissions sources that would be the focus of continuing research. Based on this memo, we completed a literature review to identify the avai lability of emission fact ors for modeling natural emissions sources. We used this information to develop emissions estimates for previously unaccounted-for natural sources of haze, and to implement new inventories created by the WRAP Emissions Forums that define natural ve rsus anthropogenic emissions. We now have the information needed to begin modeling to assess the impacts of natural emissions sources on visibility impairment in the WRAP region.



### 15.8 Task 7: Evaluation and Comparison of Alternative Models
The CMAQ modeling system is the primary mo deling tool being used in the WRAP 2002 modeling. However, there are many advantages to operating alternative models, such as being able to diagnose model performance, corroborat e the primary model’s results, quantify model uncertainty, and provide a bac kup modeling tool. A review of available alternative models identified the Comprehensive Air-quality Mode l with extensions (CAMx) as the optimal alternative model because it’s similar state-of-science formul ations as CMAQ, its use by several other RPOs (e.g., MRO and CENRAP) and av ailability of a PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) capability. The CAMx modeling system was applied for February and July 2002 on the RPO Unified Continental 36-km Modeli ng Grid domain, and the model performance compared with CMAQ. In general CMAQ and CAMx exhibited similar model performance attributes with neither model exhibiting supe rior model performance across all species and subregions. The CAMx PSAT su lfate source apportionment was also compared with the PM source apportionment modeling results from the CMAQ TSSA runs. The CAMx PSAT and CMAQ TSSA sulfate source apportionment prod uced similar rankings of source region contributions to sulfate at western Class I ar eas, with the exception that the TSSA “Other” category that includes non-tagged sources, mass ad justments and mass conser vation errors is not present in the PSAT results that accounts for the contributions of all sources.



### 15.9 Task 9: Testing and Further Improvements to the Windblown Dust Emissions Modeling Methodology
In 2004 we implemented the Phase II estimati on methodology for PM dust emissions from wind erosion for calendar year 2002 on the RPO Unifie d Continental 36-km Modeling Grid domain. A number of sensitivity simulations were perfor med to investigate the effects of the various assumptions regarding dust reservoir characteristic s and disturbance levels of the soils across the domain.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

339 Based on a review of recent studies concerning du st emission from wind er osion, we developed a general estimation methodology. Emission rates we re developed by soil type and wind speed. Land use/land cover data came fr om the NLCD database were used to determine the surface roughness lengths necessary for estimating thre shold surface friction ve locities. Wind speed, precipitation rates, and soil temperatures were based on MM5 model simula tion results at a spatial resolution of 36 km. A lthough we improved the overall estimation methodology compared with our Phase I methodology, a number of assu mptions were still required to implement the methodology (see Section 10.3).
The results, presented and discusse d in Section 10.4, qualitatively appear to be consistent with the various assumptions made. Variations in estimated dust emissions by land use type and season are described in that sec tion. A more detailed an alysis of the model results and a comparison with ambient data are curren tly underway and will be document ed in the final task report.
Although the results of the projec t are still being reviewed, we can already make a number of recommendations with regard to improvements in data quality and in the estimation methodology. These include incorporati ng more detailed land use type and soil characteristics data, implementing the model using higher-resolution meteorological data, applying transport fractions to the estimated dust emissions, and valid ating the methodology using a smaller-scale local domain.



### 15.10 Task 10: Continued Improvemen t to Model Evaluation Software
We continued to revise and improve the mode l performance evaluation (MPE) software during 2004. Because model performance guidance does not yet exist for visibility modeling, we continue to explore new eval uation methods and sometimes discover improved methods for presenting model results that necessitate changes in the MPE software. In particular, during 2004 we experimented with various types of plots for summarizing and effectively presenting the results of the model-to-ambient-data comparis ons, including soccer plots and bugle plots. Beginning in January 2005 we also adapted a Mi crosoft Access Database program originally developed by Air Resources Inc. to pr oduce stacked-bar time-series plots.
Although we continue to compute a wide variety of model performance metrics, we typically use mean fractional bias (MFB) and mean fractional error (MFE) when presenting evaluation results because these metrics provide the most balanced and symmetrical approach for characterizing model underpredictions and overpredictions.
We currently recommend presenting model ev aluation results using a combination of bugle plots, stacked-bar time-series plots, and soccer plots. We are continuing to modify the MPE software to make it easier to generate these plot s. We still need guidance from EPA on official criteria for defining acceptable perf ormance for visibility modeling.

The MPE software is available for use to all WRAP contractors and WRAP members. We plan to release a public vers ion of the MPE after completing revi sions to the MPE documentation. A draft of the MPE user’s guide is included as Appendix F.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

340 

### 15.11 Task 11: Sensitivity Studies D esigned to Evaluate Uncertainties in Fire Emissions
With the Fire Emissions Joint Forum and Air Sciences Inc., the RMC developed several emission scenario combinations to study the effect of fires on air quality in ge neral, and on visibility in particular. We completed CMAQ simulations for each of these scenarios and compared the results to the CMAQ results with no fire emissions. Fire emissions were classified as wildfires, prescribed burning, or agricultural burning. They were further classified as either natural or anthropogenic, with wildfires defined exclusively as natural, prescribed burning divided between natural and anthropogenic, and agricultural burni ng defined as exclusively anthropogenic. The fire scenario evaluations completed include the following:

• Comparison of the 2018 Base Smoke Management (BSM) and Optimal Smoke Management (OSM) strategies.

• Comparison of natural versus anthropogenic emissions.

• Evaluation of individual contri butions of wildfires, prescr ibed burning, an d agricultural burning.

• Evaluation of the sensitivity of the CMAQ results to changes in the vertical distribution of agricultural burning emissions.

Wildfires and natural fire emissions were the ma jor component of the fire emissions inventory and by far the largest contribu tors among the three categories to ambient PM. Anthropogenic emissions had a relatively small effect on visibi lity because of the small magnitude of agricultural burning compare to total fire emissions. Ho wever, anthropogenic fire emissions might show larger effects in model simulations that use fi ner grid resolution. Th is would be a special concern for emissions located in or near Class I area. Thus, the significance of anthropogenic emissions should not be discounted based on thes e results, and additiona l studies should be performed at finer grid resolutions.
The CMAQ results were not sensitive to changes in the vertical distri bution of agricultural burning emissions because these were small compar ed to the wildfire emissions. However, we would expect a different result for large wildfires for whic h the plume rise height may extend into the free troposphere, and which also have mu ch larger emissions th an agricultural burning, and therefore a larger effect on visibility in general. Additional sensitivity simulations should still be performed to evaluate the effect s of plume rise height for large fires.



### 15.12 Task 12: Preliminary Meteorological, Emissions, and Air Quality Modeling Activities for Alaska
The State of Alaska is developing a plan to prot ect visibility and comply with the intent of the RHR. As part of the WRAP Alaska effort, we are developing techniques for credible modeling of regional haze in Alaska, and providing a prelim inary evaluation of the potential contributions to regional haze in the Alaska Class I areas that are more likely to be affected by in-state emis-Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

341 sions. There are three main components of re gional haze modeling: meteorological modeling, emissions modeling, and air quality modeling.
The State of Alaska is developi ng a statewide emissions inventor y. It is thus premature to perform emissions and photochemical grid modeling, as not all of the data are currently available in a suitable form. Therefore, our current modeling approach for Alaska is to begin by developing meteorological modeling techniqu es to simulate the unique and complex meteorological conditions of the region. The MM5 model was applied for year 2002 on a 45/15- km grid and evaluated against available surf ace, upper-air, and synoptic data. The 2002 MM5 data are being used to perform preliminary ai r quality modeling using a simplified Lagrangian (trajectory) model in 2005 to pr ovide an initial assessment of the potential effects of emissions from Anchorage and Fairbanks, as well as majo r stationary sources, on visibility at Denali National Park and Tuxedni Wilderness Area. The Lagrangian model we will use for preliminary WRAP Alaska visibility mode ling is CALPUFF. CALPUFF is being applied for 2002 and the results compared against available observations for reasonableness.



### 15.13 Task 13: Training Courses fo r the WRAP States and Tribes
Basic CMAQ and SMOKE training classes are ava ilable through the CMAS Center. Therefore, the RMC focuses its efforts on advanced traini ng and technology transfer. A one-day training class on the use of visibility modeling results was developed and offered in conjunction with the Attribution of Haze meeting held in September 2004.
The primary training need concerns the transfer of the models and datasets to the states and tribes, and instruction or assistance in setting up the modeling system. This includes aspects of hardware, operating systems, and installation and operation of models and datasets and the associated computers. We are enga ged in several activities related to this need. For example, we are producing a frequently asked questions (FAQ) sheet that explains how to install an operating system and the modeling system on a Linux PC, and includes recommendations for computer hardware appropriate for the modeling system users’ needs. This FAQ sheet will be posted on the project web site.
After providing some assistance to one state in setting up a specialized operating system for managing parallel computers, we determined that the best use of RMC resources would be to limit the assistance we provide to supporting a single, standard insta llation of Linux and the modeling system.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

342 

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. , 108: 4416-4437.Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

349 

## Appendices A through E: Five Appendices to Section 5, “Task 3: 2002 Base Year Emissions Modeling, Processing, and Analysis”

Five appendices are referred to in Section 5, which covers Task 3. They are contained in a separate file located at
http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports/fin al/2004_RMC_final_report_Appendices_A-E.pdf
The titles of the append ices are as follows:

• Appendix A: Complete Listing of Simulati on Pre02d_36 Input/Output Files and SMOKE Configuration Settings

• Appendix B: Area-Source Agricultural SCCs Replaced by Process-Based NH 3 Emissions Model

• Appendix C: Preliminary 2002 Emissions Density Maps

• Appendix D: Preliminary 2002 Bar Charts

• Appendix E: SMOKE QA Checklist for Simulation Pre02d_36Final Report for the WRAP Regional Modeling Center for the Project Period March 1, 2004 – February 28, 2005

350 

## Appendix F: Appendix to Section 11, “Task 10: Continued Improvement to Model Evaluation Software”

One appendix is referred to in Section 11, which c overs Task 10. This appendix is a draft of the model performance evaluation (MPE) documenta tion prepared by RMC staff at CE-CERT, University of California, Riverside and title d “User’s Guide: Air Qu ality Model Evaluation Software, Version 2.0.1.” The appendix is co ntained in a separate file located at
http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports/f inal/2004_RMC_final_report_Appendix_F.pdf