NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION STATISTICS

Statistical Analysis Report August 2001

Postsecondary Education Descriptive Analysis Reports

High School Academic Curriculum and

the Persistence Path Through College

Persistence and Transfer Behavior of

Undergraduates 3 Years After Entering 4-Year

Institutions

Laura Horn

Lawrence K. Kojaku

MPR Associates, Inc.

C. Dennis Carroll

National Center for Education Statistics

U.S. Department of Education

Office of Educational Research and Improvement NCES 2001–163
U.S. Department of Education

Rod Paige

Secretary

Office of Educational Research and Improvement

Grover J. Whitehurst

Assistant Secretary

National Center for Education Statistics

Gary W. Phillips

Acting Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and

reporting data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to

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Suggested Citation

U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics. High School Academic Curriculum

and the Persistence Path Through College, NCES 2001–163, by Laura Horn and Lawrence K. Kojaku.

Project Officer: C. Dennis Carroll. Washington, DC: 2001.

For ordering information on this report, write:

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Contact:

Aurora D’Amico

(202) 502-7334
iii

Executive Summary

This report examines the relationship between

high school academic curricula and students’ persistence path through college, approximately 3

years after first enrolling. The data are drawn from

the 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Survey, a longitudinal study of beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in a 4-year

college in 1995–96. Measures of high school academic preparation are based on academic courses

taken in high school as reported by students on

their college entrance exam applications.

The high school academic curriculum measure

identifies three levels of coursetaking: (1) Core

curriculum or below, (2) mid-level, and (3) rigorous. The lowest threshold is based on the core

New Basics curriculum first recommended by the

National Commission on Excellence in Education

in A Nation at Risk (1983). Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of mathematics,

3 years of science, and 3 years of social studies.1

The highest threshold, or rigorous curriculum,

identified in the current study, includes 4 years of

English, 3 years of a foreign language, 3 years of

social studies, 4 years of mathematics (including

pre-calculus or higher), 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least

one Advanced Placement (AP) course or test

taken. Mid-level covers curricula between core

and rigorous curricula, but at a minimum must

include algebra I, geometry, at least 1 year of a

 

1It also included courses in computer science, but students

did not report on such courses on their entrance exam applications.

foreign language, and two science classes from the

combination of biology, chemistry, and physics.2

Level of High School Academic

Curriculum Completed

The distribution of beginning students enrolled

in 4-year institutions across the three levels of

course taking is displayed in figure A. Approximately one-third (31 percent) reported completing

course work no higher than core curricula, onehalf completed mid-level curricula, and the remaining one-fifth (19 percent) completed rigorous

curricula.

The level of high school academic curriculum

completed by beginning 4-year college students

was associated with their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and also with the economic status of the student body in their high

schools. Specifically, students from low-income

families, students whose parents had no more than

a high school education, and students who graduated from high schools in which 25 percent or

more of the students were eligible for free or reduced-price lunches were less likely than their

more advantaged counterparts to report completing rigorous high school curricula.

Related in part to family income, racial/ethnic

group differences also were apparent. Black stu-

 

2The research of Burkam, Lee, and Smerdon (1996) and

Adelman (1999) was used extensively in guiding the development of the variable.
Executive Summary

iv

Figure A.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginFigure A.—ning postsecondary students who enrolled in 

Figure A.—4-year institutions, by high school academic 

Figure A.—curriculum

1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social 

studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than 

rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the 

following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of 

mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a 

foreign language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science 

(including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for 

Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Mid-level2

Rigorous3 Core curriculum

or less1

50

19

31

dents were much less likely than either White or

Asian/Pacific Islander students to complete rigorous curricula (8 percent versus 20 and 31 percent,

respectively) and more likely to complete programs no higher than the core curriculum (42 percent versus 29 and 27 percent). Asian/Pacific

Islander students were the most likely to complete

rigorous curricula (31 percent). While it appears

as though White students were more likely than

Hispanic students to complete rigorous curricula

(20 percent versus 16 percent) and less likely to

complete no higher than core curricula (29 percent

versus 34 percent), there was not enough statistical evidence to draw this conclusion.

High school academic curriculum also had an

obvious association with where students first enrolled in college. As the level of curricula increased, so did students’ likelihood of attending

selective 4-year colleges or universities.3 For example, 71 percent of students who completed rigorous curricula enrolled in a selective college or

university, compared with 40 percent who completed mid-level curricula and 32 percent who

completed core curricula or lower.

Postsecondary Persistence 3 Years

After Enrolling

As of 1998, roughly two-thirds of students who

had first enrolled in a 4-year college in 1995–96

were still enrolled in the same college (including 6

percent who had left and returned; figure B). Onefifth had transferred to another institution, and 13

percent had left and not returned.

The level of college students’ high school curricula was strongly related to their persistence in

postsecondary education. This was true both for

maintaining enrollment at their initial institution

(institutional retention) and, if they transferred,

staying on track to a bachelor’s degree.4 For example, 79 percent of students who had participated in rigorous high school academic curricula

were continuously enrolled in their initial institution (including 1 percent who had attained a

bachelor’s degree; figure C). In contrast, 62 percent and 55 percent, respectively, of those in mid-

 

3Selectivity was determined by admitted students’ entrance

exam scores. See appendix A for definition.

4The “persistence track” to a bachelor’s degree is defined as

maintaining uninterrupted enrollment in a 4-year institution

toward a bachelor’s degree objective. It includes those who

transfer between 4-year institutions without a break in enrollment. The persistence track concept was first developed by

Carroll (1989) to demonstrate the optimal path to a bachelor’s

degree and the adverse effects of straying from the path.
Executive Summary

v

level curricula or core curricula or lower were

continuously enrolled in their initial institution.

Students in rigorous curricula also were less likely

to transfer from their first institution (13 percent)

than those who participated in less than rigorous

curricula, whether in mid-level or core or lower

curricula (23 percent of both groups transferred).

The difference between levels of academic curricula was especially notable with respect to staying on track to a bachelor’s degree (i.e.,

continuous enrollment in any 4-year institution).

As the level of academic curricula increased, so

did the proportion of undergraduates who stayed

on track (figure D). As of 1998, the vast majority

(87 percent) of those who had participated in rigorous high school academic curricula were still on

track to a bachelor’s degree, compared with 71

percent of those in mid-level curricula, and 62

percent of those who completed core curricula or

lower. Correspondingly, the proportion of those

who had left postsecondary education and did not

return declined with each successive level of academic curriculum (from 17 percent to 10 percent

to 4 percent).

Figure B.—Postsecondary persistence path of 1995–96 beginning students who enrolled in 4-year

Figure B.—institutions, 3 years after first enrollment (as of 1998)

1

Maintained continuous enrollment in first institution or earned a bachelor’s degree. 2

Transferred to a 4-year institution with no break in enrollment.

3

Stopped out (break of more than 4 months) and/or enrolled in a less-than-4-year institution.

4

Maintained continuous enrollment in any 4-year institution.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

0.7 Earned bachelor's degree

Continuously enrolled

Left without return

Transferred

Retention at first institution 

4.6 

Left without return

Off bachelor’s track3

Off 

bachelor’s

track3

Stayed on bachelor’s 

degree track2

14.0 

18.0 

68.1 

56.6 

38.9 

59.9 

12.7 

20.4 Bachelor's 

track4

6.2 Stopped out and returned

75.6 

16.4 

Bachelor's 

track1

 Left without 

return

8.0

Off 

bachelor’s

track3

Status in 1998 Status of 

all in 1998

 Left without 

return

No transfer

Transferred
Executive Summary

vi

Figure C.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students’ 1998 enrollment status in their first

Figure C.—institution for those who began in a 4-year institution, by high school academic curriculum

1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Mid-level2 Rigorous3 Core curriculum or less1

0.7 Bachelor's degree

Continuously enrolled

Left without return

Transferred

6.3 Stopped out 

 and returned

54.6 

15.4 

23.1 

9.1 

0.2 Bachelor's degree

Continuously enrolled

Left without return

Transferred

5.6 Stopped out 

 and returned

61.8

23.2 

1.2 Bachelor's degree

Continuously enrolled

3.1 Left without return

Transferred

4.2 Stopped out 

 and returned

78.1

13.4 

Status at first institution

Figure D.—Enrollment status in 1998 of 1995–96 beginning students who first enrolled in 4-year

Figure D.—institutions, by high school academic curriculum

1

Continuously enrolled in any 4-year institution.

2

Stopped out (break of 4 or more months) and/or enrolled in a less-than-4-year institution.

3

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

4

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

5

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Mid-level4 Rigorous5 Core curriculum or less3

Bachelor's 

track1

Bachelor's 

track1

Bachelor's 

track1

Left 

without 

return

4.2

Left 

without 

return

Left 

without 

return

Enrollment status of all in 1998

19.0 

70.8

10.3 

86.6 

16.9 

21.2 

61.9 

9.2 

Off 

bachelor’s track

Off 2

bachelor’s

track2

Off 

bachelor’s

track2
Executive Summary

vii

Patterns of Transfer

The rate of transfer for those who completed

no higher than a core curriculum in high school

was the same as for those who completed midlevel curricula. Roughly one-quarter of these students had transferred from their first institution,

while just 13 percent in rigorous high school curricula had done so. However, as shown in Figure

E, among students who transferred, as their level

of academic curricula increased, so did the likelihood of staying on track to a bachelor’s degree

(i.e., they transferred to another 4-year institution

without a break in enrollment). For those who had

completed core curricula or lower, 31 percent of

transfers stayed on the bachelor’s degree track, as

did 39 percent of transfers who had completed

mid-level curricula and 60 percent of those who

had completed rigorous high school curricula.

These differences were clearly evident when

examining the destination of transfers. Staying on

track to a bachelor’s degree implies staying enrolled in a 4-year institution, so all transfers who

stayed on track transferred to 4-year institutions.

However, there were also differences across high

school academic curricula with respect to the selectivity of the 4-year institutions where students

transferred (table A). Among all transfers who

completed rigorous high school curricula, 40 percent transferred to selective institutions, compared

with just 21 percent of their counterparts who

completed mid-level curricula and 17 percent who

Figure E.—For 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution, percentage 

Figure E.—distribution of enrollment status in 1998 with respect to earning a bachelor’s degree, by high

Figure E.—school academic curriculum

1

Continuously enrolled in any 4-year institution.

2

Stopped out (break of 4 or more months) and/or enrolled in a less-than-4-year institution.

3

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

4

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

5

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Mid-level4

Left without return

4.5 

Rigorous5

Left without return

7.4 

Core curriculum or less3

Left without return

5.4 

Bachelor's 

track1

Bachelor's 

track1

Bachelor's 

track1

32.3 

60.4 

38.5 

57.0 63.5 

31.1 Off 

bachelor’s

track2

Off 

bachelor’s

track2

Off 

bachelor’s

track2

Enrollment status of transfers in 1998
Executive Summary

viii

Table A.—Among 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution, percentage

Table A.—distribution according to their transfer institution, by high school academic curriculum and

Table A.—selectivity of first institution

Transfer destination

Less-than-4-year

 4-year institution or for-profit

 Selective1 Less-selective2 4-year

 Total 21.3 39.5 39.3

High school academic curriculum

 Core curriculum or less3 17.4 36.9 45.7

 Mid-level4 20.9 39.0 40.1

 Rigorous5 40.4 38.9 20.8

 Total 34.1 30.0 35.9

 Core curriculum or less3 21.5 31.4 47.1

 Mid-level4 32.8 27.6 39.6

 Rigorous5 48.5 32.4 19.1

 Total 14.7 44.3 41.0

 Core curriculum or less3 16.2 38.4 45.4

 Mid-level4 13.3 46.2 40.5

 Rigorous5 25.0 50.9 24.0

1

Selective institutions are public and private not-for-profit institutions in which students’ average SAT scores 

exceeded 1000 or Carnegie classifications in which a majority of students were enrolled in very selective institutions. 

2

Less-selective institutions are all others not identified in the selective groups. 3

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

4

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

5

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

All transfers from 4-year institutions

Began in selective institution 

Began in less-selective institution

completed core curricula or lower. Correspondingly, transfers who completed rigorous curricula

were much less likely to transfer either to a lessthan-4-year or a for-profit institution (21 percent)

than their counterparts in mid-level (40 percent) or

core curricula or lower (46 percent).

Examining the selectivity of students’ first institution with their second, the likelihood of making a lateral transfer from selective to selective

institution was much higher for those completing

rigorous high school curricula (49 percent) than

for those completing either mid-level curricula (33
Executive Summary

ix

percent) or no higher than core curricula (22 percent). Similarly, the likelihood of transferring

from a selective institution to a less-than-4-year or

for-profit institution was much lower for those

completing rigorous curricula (19 percent) than

for their counterparts completing mid-level curricula (40 percent) or no higher than core curricula

(47 percent).

While the patterns of transfer appear to be

similar among those who began in less-selective

institutions (i.e., those completing rigorous high

school curricula more likely than those in less rigorous curricula to transfer to selective institutions

or to transfer laterally, and less likely to transfer to

less-than-4-year or for-profit institutions), there is

not enough statistical evidence to draw this conclusion.

Transfers left postsecondary education at

similar rates no matter what their high school academic curricula. As shown in figure E, 5 to 7 percent of transfers left postsecondary education

altogether as of 1998.

Controlling for Related Variables

In addition to high school academic curricula,

many other variables can influence postsecondary

education outcomes. Therefore, it is necessary to

use multivariate analysis techniques to disentangle

the net influence of related variables on the outcome of interest.

In this study, covariance adjustment techniques

based on simple linear regression models were

used to analyze two persistence outcomes: (1)

continuous enrollment at the initial institution, and

(2) staying on track to a bachelor’s degree. Independent variables reflected students’ academic

experience in high school (academic curricula and

college entrance exam scores), demographic characteristics (gender, race/ethnicity, age), socioeconomic characteristics (income and parents’ education), and the economic status of their high

schools (the proportion of students eligible for

free or reduced-price lunches). Other variables

reflected students’ experiences in their first year

in college, including the type of postsecondary

institution, full- or part-time attendance, and work

status. In addition, because previous research has

shown first-year grade-point average (GPA) to be

a strong predictor of success in college (e.g., Pascarella and Terenzini 1991), both analyses were

run twice, once without GPA, and once including

GPA as an independent variable.

High School Academic Curricula

The results indicated a strong association between high school academic curricula and both

measures of persistence. Students who participated in rigorous high school curricula were at a

distinct advantage over those who completed no

higher than core curricula (the comparison group).

In addition, there was some evidence that completing mid-level curricula also was associated

with higher rates of staying on track to a bachelor’s degree when compared to those completing

programs no higher than core curricula. However,

the difference did not reach statistical significance

after adjusting for the design effect of the dependent variable.5

SAT Scores and Other Variables

In both persistence analyses, prior to including

first-year college GPA as an independent variable,

SAT composite test score levels and high school

academic curriculum levels were significantly associated with the outcome. However, once GPA

 

5After adjusting for the design effect, the t-value of the coefficient was 1.90. See appendix B for a description of methods

and adjustment for design effect.
Executive Summary

x

was taken into account, high school academic curriculum remained a significant predictor of persistence (specifically, completing a rigorous

versus core or lower curriculum), but the association between levels of SAT scores and persistence

disappeared. In other words, once all related variables were taken into consideration including

college GPA, entrance exam scores were no

longer associated with the likelihood of persisting,

either with respect to institutional retention or

staying on track to a bachelor’s degree.

Other variables were also significantly associated with both measures of persistence after

holding related variables consistent. For example,

students whose parents did not attend college were

less likely to persist than those whose parents

were college-educated.6 In addition, students who

started college attending part time and/or working

full time were less likely to persist than their

counterparts, as were those who first enrolled in

less-selective 4-year institutions compared with

those in selective institutions.

Conclusions

The findings of this study demonstrated a consistent advantage experienced by students who

completed rigorous high school curricula, and to a

lesser extent by those completing mid-level curricula, over their peers completing core curricula

or lower.

However, the level of high school curricula

students reported completing also was related to

their family background characteristics and indicators of socioeconomic status, including family

income, parents’ education, race/ethnicity, and the

 

6A recent NCES report provides a detailed analysis of the

experiences of “first-generation” college students—those

whose parents did not attend college (Warburton, Bugarin,

and Nuñez 2001).

economic status of their high school’s student

body. All of these factors relate to whether or not

students have the opportunities to participate in

and complete rigorous curricula. Moreover, students’ success in staying in college was also related to where they first enrolled and how well

they did in their first year. Yet, even when all

these factors were taken into consideration, the

advantage of completing a rigorous high school

academic curriculum remained.

The same was not observed for levels of SAT

scores. Similar to the findings for curriculum levels, SAT scores were related to persistence when

first-year college GPA was not included in the

regression. However, after GPA was added, high

school curriculum remained a significant factor,

but SAT scores did not. These findings are consistent with recent research based on high school

transcripts for a cohort of 1980 high school

sophomores (Adelman 1999); this study demonstrated that high school curriculum was a stronger

predictor of bachelor’s degree attainment than

standardized test scores or other measures of high

school academic performance.

Perhaps most notable in the current study, is

the apparent benefit of a strong high school academic curriculum for transfer students. Students

who transfer from their initial 4-year college may

do so because they are struggling either academically or socially, and attempting to find a better fit

in another institution. One-fifth of 1995–96 beginning undergraduates enrolled in 4-year colleges

had transferred from their first institution by 1998.

For these students in particular, as their level of

high school academic curriculum increased, so did

their likelihood of staying on track to a bachelor’s

degree (by transferring to another 4-year institution without a break in enrollment).
Executive Summary

xi

Taken together, the results suggest that completing a rigorous academic curriculum in high

school may help students overcome socioeconomic disadvantages such as low family income

and parents with no college experience, as well as

helping those who get a poor start in college

(whether academic or social) and decide to transfer.
xii

Foreword

This report examines the relationship between high school academic curricula and students’

persistence path through college, approximately 3 years after first enrolling. The data are drawn

from a longitudinal survey of beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in a 4-year

college in 1995–96 (BPS:96/98). Measures of high school academic preparation are based on

academic courses taken in high school as reported by students on their college entrance exam applications. These data come from Educational Testing Service (ETS) and the American College

Testing (ACT) Program.

The estimates presented in the report (mostly percentages) were produced using the NCES

Data Analysis System (DAS) for the BPS:96/98 survey. The DAS is a PC-based application that

allows users to specify and generate their own tables. With the DAS users can also generate correlation coefficient matrices to use as input data for standard regression procedures. The DAS

produces design-adjusted standard errors necessary for testing the statistical significance of differences shown in the tables. For more information regarding the DAS, readers should consult

appendix B of this report.
xiii

Acknowledgments

Many individuals made important contributions to this report. At MPR Associates, Robin

Henke reviewed the analysis at various stages and provided helpful comments; Chloe Huynh assisted with the analysis; Andrea Livingston edited the report, Francesca Tussing and Leslie Retallick formatted the graphics, tables, and text, and Barbara Kridl proofread the final report.

Members of the PEDAR Technical Review Panel (TRP) who reviewed the preliminary results included Clifford Adelman, Paula Knepper, and Roslyn Korb at NCES; and Jacob Stampen

from the University of Wisconsin.

The final report was reviewed by the following adjudication panel members at the U.S. Department of Education: Bernie Greene (Early Childhood and International and Crosscutting

Studies Division), Jeff Owings (Associate Director, Elementary/Secondary and Library Studies

Division), Karen Wenk (Office of Postsecondary Education), and Ann Mullen (National Institute

on Postsecondary Education, Libraries and Lifelong Learning); Bruce Taylor (Statistical Standards Program of ODC) served as the panel chair. Special thanks to Jacqueline King, Director of

Research at the American Council on Education, for reviewing both the preliminary results and

the final report. The authors wish to thank all of these individuals who helped shape and

strengthen the final report.
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xv

Table of Contents

Page

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. iii

Foreword.................................................................................................................................... xii

Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................... xiii

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. xvii

List of Figures............................................................................................................................ xix

Introduction............................................................................................................................... 1

Data and Definitions of Key Variables.................................................................................... 3

High School Academic Curriculum ...................................................................................... 3

Postsecondary Persistence Measures..................................................................................... 4

Other Variables ..................................................................................................................... 6

Multivariate Analyses............................................................................................................ 7

High School Academic Curriculum......................................................................................... 9

Factors Associated With High School Academic Curriculum.............................................. 9

Persistence Path Through College ........................................................................................... 13

Starting Out ........................................................................................................................... 14

Persistence at First Institution ............................................................................................... 17

Staying on Track to a Bachelor’s Degree.............................................................................. 17

Transfer Path............................................................................................................................. 21

Staying on Track to a Bachelor’s Degree.............................................................................. 21

Transfer Destinations ............................................................................................................ 21

Reasons Given for Transferring ............................................................................................ 24

Controlling for Related Variables ........................................................................................... 27

Continuous Enrollment at First Institution............................................................................ 27

Staying on Track to a Bachelor’s Degree.............................................................................. 30

Summary and Conclusions....................................................................................................... 37

References.................................................................................................................................. 39
Table of Contents

xvi

Page

Appendix A—Glossary ............................................................................................................. 41

Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology .................................................................. 49
xvii

List of Tables

Executive Summary Table Page

A Among 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution,

percentage distribution according to their transfer institution, by high school academic

curriculum and by selectivity of first institution ............................................................. viii

Text Tables

1 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions, by high

school academic curriculum levels and by selected student background and high

school characteristics....................................................................................................... 10

2 Percentage distribution of institution type where 1995–96 beginning students in 4-

year institutions first enrolled, by high school academic curriculum.............................. 14

3 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who reported taking

remedial courses in their first year of college, by high school academic curriculum...... 15

4 Grade-point average (GPA) and percentage distribution of GPA quartiles for 1995–96

beginning students in their first year of college among those enrolled in 4-year

institutions, by high school academic curriculum ........................................................... 16

5 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students who reported frequent participation in

various academic activities in their first year in college, among those enrolled in 4-

year institutions, by high school academic curriculum ................................................... 17

6 Percentage distribution by enrollment status in first institution as of 1998, among

1995–96 beginning students who first enrolled in 4-year institutions, by high school

academic curriculum ....................................................................................................... 18

7 Among 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution,

percentage distribution according to their transfer institution, by high school academic

curriculum and by selectivity of first institution ............................................................. 23

8 Among 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution, the

percentage reporting their first reason for leaving, by high school academic

curriculum ....................................................................................................................... 25
List of Tables

xviii

Text Tables Page

9 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who were

continuously enrolled in their first institution or attained a bachelor’s degree as of

1998 and the adjusted percentage after taking into account the covariation of the

variables listed in the table.............................................................................................. 28

10 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who were

continuously enrolled in their first institution or attained a bachelor’s degree as of

1998 and the adjusted percentage after taking into account the covariation of the

variables listed in the table, controlling for first-year college GPA................................ 31

11 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who remained on

bachelor’s degree track as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage after taking into

account the covariation of the variables listed in the table.............................................. 33

12 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who remained on

bachelor’s degree track as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage after taking into

account the covariation of the variables listed in the table, controlling for first-year

college GPA .................................................................................................................... 35

Appendix Table

B1 Standard errors for table 1: Percentage distribution of high school academic curricula

among 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions, by selected student

background and high school characteristics.................................................................... 51
xix

List of Figures

Executive Summary Figures Page

A Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who enrolled in

4-year institutions, by high school academic curriculum................................................ iv

B Postsecondary persistence path of 1995–96 beginning students who enrolled in 4-year

institutions, 3 years after first enrollment (as of 1998) ................................................... v

C Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students’ 1998 enrollment status in

their first institution for those who began in a 4-year institution, by high school

academic curriculum ....................................................................................................... vi

D Enrollment status in 1998 of 1995–96 beginning students who first enrolled in 4-year

institutions, by high school academic curriculum ........................................................... vi

E For 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution, percentage

distribution of enrollment status in 1998 with respect to earning a bachelor’s degree,

by high school academic curriculum............................................................................... vii

Text Figures

1 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who enrolled in

4-year institutions, by high school academic curriculum................................................ 5

2 Postsecondary persistence path of 1995–96 beginning students who enrolled in 4-year

institutions, 3 years after first enrollment (as of 1998) ................................................... 13

3 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students’ 1998 enrollment status in

their first institution for those who began in a 4-year institution, by high school

academic curriculum ....................................................................................................... 18

4 Enrollment status in 1998 of 1995–96 beginning students who first enrolled in 4-year

institutions, by high school academic curriculum ........................................................... 19

5 For 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution, percentage

distribution of enrollment status in 1998 with respect to earning a bachelor’s degree,

by high school academic curriculum............................................................................... 22
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1

Introduction

The importance of improving the academic curricula of American youth to better prepare

them for college is evident in the first stated goal of Gear Up, the U.S. Department of Education’s outreach program designed to help disadvantaged youth pursue postsecondary education—

“to promote significant growth in student academic achievement through high standards and a

rigorous academic core curriculum beginning as early as middle school.”1

Beginning in the late 1970s, Karl Alexander and others demonstrated that measures of high

school students’ “academic resources” are much stronger predictors of educational outcomes

than are social background factors including gender, race, and socioeconomic status (Alexander

and Cook 1978, 1982; Alexander, Holupka, and Pallas 1987; Alexander, Riordan, Fennessey,

and Pallas 1982). One study in particular (Alexander et al. 1982), examined college graduation

rates of high school seniors using the National Longitudinal Study of 1972 (NLS-72) with respect

to their social background factors and high school academic resources (defined as college or noncollege curriculum track, standardized test scores, and class rank). The authors concluded that

academic factors were by far the strongest predictors of degree attainment. Once academic resources were taken into consideration, there were no differences by gender, modest differences

by race (Black students had higher completion rates), and larger differences by socioeconomic

status.

Recently, Adelman (1999) examined graduation rates among 1980 high school sophomores

using High School and Beyond (HS&B) data. Through the analysis of high school transcripts, he

developed a much more complex curriculum variable based on the intensity and quality of

courses taken. The findings of this study indicated that the academic curriculum variable was a

better predictor of degree attainment than standardized test scores or class rank.

The current study examines the association between high school curricula and college persistence and transfer patterns for a cohort of students who first enrolled in a 4-year college in

1995–96, and who were followed up three years later in 1998 (BPS:96/98). Unlike age cohort

surveys, the BPS survey is made up of all students who enter college in a given year, including

older students who have delayed enrollment. In a previous report, Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and

McCormick (1996) reported extensively on the persistence and degree attainment of an earlier

 

1U.S. Department of Education, http://www.ed.gov/gearup/funding FY2001.html.
Introduction

2

BPS cohort who entered postsecondary education in 1989–90. However, the earlier survey data

lacked measures of high school academic curricula. Thus, it was not possible to determine the

impact of high school academic preparation on students’ persistence or transfer behavior once

they reached college. The newer BPS survey includes data obtained from the SAT and ACT

testing agencies, which in addition to college admission test scores, contain self-reports of high

school courses completed. BPS:96/98 also contains information on characteristics of the students’ high schools from the Common Core of Data (CCD). These additional data provide the

opportunity to examine students’ academic preparation for college in more depth.

Using these data, the analysis examines the association between levels of high school academic curricula on measures of persistence 3 years after first enrolling in a 4-year college or university addressing the following questions:

• How were college students’ high school academic curricula related to measures of

postsecondary persistence?

• How did students’ high school academic curricula relate to transfer behavior, in particular, whether or not they stayed on track to a bachelor’s degree?

• To what types of institutions (i.e., more or less selective 4-year, or less-than-4-year institutions) did students transfer and how was this related to high school academic curricula?
3

Data and Definitions of Key Variables

This analysis uses data from the first follow-up of the Beginning Postsecondary Students

cohort who first entered postsecondary education in 1995–96 (BPS:96/98). In addition, student

reported high school academic courses taken were derived from applications to take the SAT or

ACT college entrance exams. These data were obtained from Educational Testing Service (ETS)

and the American College Testing (ACT) Program.2 Data were available for 93 percent of students at 4-year institutions (public and private not-for-profit) and for 43 percent of those at public

2-year institutions. Because high school coursetaking data were not available for a majority of

students who began in 2-year institutions, this study is limited to students who began college at

public or private not-for-profit 4-year institutions. The small percentage of students who first enrolled in 4-year private for-profit institutions (0.4 percent) was excluded from the analysis.

High School Academic Curriculum

The definition of levels of academic curricula used in this analysis was based on three

sources: the core curriculum recommended in A Nation at Risk as “New Basics” by the National

Commission on Excellence in Education (1983), the high school mathematics course-level analyses of Burkam, Lee, and Smerdon (1996), and Adelman’s (1999) research on the effects of secondary school courses taken on postsecondary outcomes.

The core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of mathematics, 3 years of science,

3 years of social studies, and one-half year of computer science.3 The core curriculum represents

the threshold for the lowest level of course taking in this analysis defined as follows:

 

2Previous research comparing student self-reports to transcripts indicates that although students tend to inflate their grades, they

fairly accurately report the courses they took in high school. A 1999 analysis by the American College Testing Program’s Department of Research Services compared courses reported by approximately 12,000 ACT test takers across the nation in 1995–96

with their high school transcripts. For courses identified in the high school academic curriculum variable, between 1 percent and

17 percent of courses reported as taken or planned to take were not identified on their transcripts. This is generally consistent

with two earlier ACT studies: a 1987 study of high school students in two states that found 94 percent agreement between selfreported courses taken and official high school transcripts; and a 1988 national study that found 87 percent overall accuracy of

student self-report of courses taken compared to high school transcripts, without adjusting for missing data. However, the 1999

ACT analysis mentioned above also found that between 23 percent and 34 percent of self-reported grades for courses included in

the high school academic curriculum variable were higher than those on high school transcripts. Based on these findings, selfreported grades are not included as an indicator of academic preparation/achievement.

3Data concerning computer science courses taken were not available for this study because the subject was not separately identified on admission test application forms.
Data and Definitions of Key Variables

4

• Core curriculum or below: 4 years of English, 3 years of mathematics, 3 years of science, and 3 years of social studies.

• Mid-level curriculum: exceeds core curriculum by the addition of at least 1 year of a

foreign language; also, two of the mathematics courses must have included algebra I

and geometry, and the science courses must have included two of the following: biology, chemistry, or physics.4

• Rigorous curriculum: at least 4 years of English, 3 years of a foreign language, 4 years

of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of science (including biology,

chemistry, and physics), 3 years of social studies, and at least 1 honors or advanced

placement (AP) course or, if missing, an AP test score.5

Each successive curriculum level includes students who took at least the specified number

of years of subjects and courses but did not meet the parameters of the next higher level. The

distribution of beginning students in 4-year public or private not-for-profit institutions according

to this definition of high school curriculum is shown in figure 1. Roughly one-third (31 percent)

had completed academic curricula no higher than the core level, one-half had completed a midlevel curriculum, but did not meet the criteria for rigorous, and about one-fifth (19 percent) completed a rigorous curriculum.

Postsecondary Persistence Measures

Two indicators of postsecondary persistence were used to determine the enrollment status

of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students. The time frame for both measures is about 3 years

(the spring of 1998), so attainment of a bachelor’s degree is relatively rare. The first measure of

persistence identifies the enrollment status of undergraduates with respect to their first institution

or institutional retention as follows:

Institutional retention:

Retained

• Continuously enrolled in (or attained a degree at) the initial institution within the 3-

year study period.

• Enrolled in the same institution in 1998, but stopped out at least once (had a break of

more than 4 months in enrollment).

 

4This group was originally divided into two, with the higher group completing 2 years of a foreign language, algebra II, biology,

chemistry, and physics. But few differences in outcomes were detected for the two middle groups, so they were combined.

5Test scores were available for about 20 percent of students who took AP tests.
Data and Definitions of Key Variables

5

Figure 1.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who enrolled in 4-year

Figure 1.—institutions, by high school academic curriculum

1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Mid-level2

Rigorous3

Core curriculum

or less1

50

19

31

Not retained

• Transferred to another postsecondary institution without a break in enrollment.

• Transferred to another institution after a break in enrollment of more than 4 months.

• Left postsecondary education (not enrolled at their initial institution, did not attain a

degree, and did not transfer to another postsecondary institution).

The second persistence measure characterizes the postsecondary enrollment behavior of students

3 years after entering 4-year institutions with respect to staying on track to a bachelor’s degree.

The “persistence track” is a concept first developed by Carroll (1989), who analyzed the outcomes of 1980 high school sophomores with respect to their postsecondary enrollment. He determined the optimal path for completing a bachelor’s degree and demonstrated the hazards of

straying from the path. It was later applied to the first BPS cohort (BPS:89/94) by Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and McCormick (1996).
Data and Definitions of Key Variables

6

Persistence track to bachelor’s degree:

• Stayed on track: maintained continuous enrollment at any 4-year institution for all 3

years, including students who transferred between 4-year institutions.

• Still enrolled, but off track: had a break in enrollment (4 or more months) and/or transferred to a less-than-4-year institution.

• Left postsecondary education without returning (includes those who transferred and

then left).

Other Variables

College Admission Test Scores

Performance on a standardized college admission test reflects SAT I original scale composite scores or their equivalents derived from ACT Assessment composite scores. ACT Assessment composite scores were converted to estimated SAT composite scores using a

concordance table (Marco, Abdel-Fattah, and Baron 1992).

College Grade-Point Average (GPA)

Students’ academic performance at their initial 4-year institution is based on their first-year

grade-point average, as recorded by those institutions. The GPA of students who left their initial

institution before the end of the first academic year reflects their grades for the period they were

enrolled.

Postsecondary Institution Type and Transfer Destination

Types of 4-year institutions are based on institution control (i.e., public or private not-forprofit) and Carnegie classification. Public and private not-for-profit institutions were aggregated

into two categories, “selective” and “less selective” classifications within Carnegie classifications. Carnegie classifications identified as selective were those in which the average SAT I (or

equivalent ACT) scores of beginning students exceeded 1000 or in which a majority of students

were enrolled in very selective institutions (institutions in which 75 percent of admitted students

scored 1000 or higher on the SAT I test). The resulting aggregations differed between public and

private not-for-profit institutions (see appendix A under entry for “ITCARCT3” for detail). The

four categories are as follows:
Data and Definitions of Key Variables

7

• Public selective: Research I or II Universities, and Baccalaureate I institutions.

• Public less selective: all other public institutions.

• Private not-for-profit selective: Research I or II Universities, Doctoral I or II Universities, and Baccalaureate I institutions.

• Private not-for-profit less selective: all other private not-for-profit 4-year institutions.

In addition, transfer destination institutions include a fifth category:

• Less-than-4-year institutions (such as community colleges or trade schools) or forprofit 4-year institutions.

Multivariate Analyses

In addition to the univariate tabular analysis, multivariate analyses were conducted using

the persistence measures as dependent variables. Independent variables included high school experiences (academic curricula, entrance exam test scores), student demographic characteristics

(gender, race/ethnicity, age at college enrollment), socioeconomic background (family income

and parents’ education), and the economic level of their high schools’ student body (as measured

by the proportion of students eligible for free or reduced-price lunches). Other variables reflected

students’ experiences in college, including the type of postsecondary institution in which students

first enrolled, first-year college grade-point average, attendance status (full or part time) when

they started, and the number of hours worked while enrolled in their first year.
9

High School Academic Curriculum

About one-fifth (19 percent) of 4-year college students who first enrolled in 1995–96 reported completing rigorous high school academic curricula (figure 1). Not only had these students taken chemistry, physics, and at least one advanced mathematics course (precalculus or

higher), they had studied a foreign language for at least 3 years and completed 4 years of English.

In addition, they reported taking at least one advanced placement (AP) course or test. At the other

end of the spectrum, roughly one-third (31 percent) of 4-year college students had completed

programs no higher than the core curriculum, which the National Commission on Excellence in

Education (1983) considered the minimum requirements for high school graduation. The remaining 50 percent had completed high school curricula that fell between core and rigorous cur

ricula (mid-level). At a minimum these students took at least 1 year of a foreign language, and

algebra I and geometry, and two of their science classes included a combination of biology,

chemistry, or physics.

Factors Associated With High School Academic Curriculum

Differences in high school academic curriculum levels were found for several student

demographic characteristics including race/ethnicity, age at college enrollment, family income,

and parents’ highest education. Students’ college admission test scores and an indicator of the

economic status of their high schools’ student body also varied with the level of academic curricula students reported completing.

Student Demographic Characteristics

Nearly one-third of Asian/Pacific Islander students (31 percent) reported completing rigorous curricula, a much higher rate than all other racial/ethnic groups, including 20 percent of

White students, 16 percent of Hispanic students, and 8 percent of Black students (table 1). White

students were more likely than Black students to report completing rigorous curricula and less

likely to report completing programs no higher than the core curriculum.6 It also appeared as

though White students were more likely than Hispanic students to complete rigorous curricula

 

6While it appears as though Hispanic students were more likely than Black students to report rigorous high school curricula, and

less likely to complete core curricula or lower, the differences did not reach statistical significance.
High School Academic Curriculum

10

Table 1.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions, by high school

Table 1.—academic curriculum levels and by selected student background and high school characteristics

Core curriculum

or less1 Mid-level2 Rigorous3

 Total 31.0 50.3 18.7 

Gender

 Male 32.5 47.5 20.1 

 Female 29.9 52.5 17.6 

Race/ethnicity

 Asian/Pacific Islander 26.9 42.1 31.0 

 Hispanic 34.3 49.5 16.2 

 Black, non-Hispanic 41.6 50.3 8.1 

 White, non-Hispanic 29.0 51.4 19.7 

 American Indian/Alaskan Native ———

Age during first month enrolled

 18 years or younger 29.2 52.0 18.9 

 19 or older 42.1 40.3 17.6 

Family income in 1994

 Low income 39.6 45.6 14.8 

 Middle income 30.8 51.6 17.6 

 High income 24.5 48.4 27.1 

Parents’ highest education

 High school or less 39.4 51.2 9.4 

 Some college 32.7 54.3 13.0 

 Bachelor’s degree or higher 25.7 49.3 25.0 

Derived SAT combined score

 Lowest quartile (400–790) 49.0 49.1 1.9 

 Middle quartiles (800–1090) 29.7 55.7 14.7 

 Highest quartile (1100–1600) 15.0 40.8 44.1 

Free or reduced-price lunch eligibility at high school

 0–4 percent 24.7 48.2 27.1 

 5–24 percent 32.6 50.6 16.7 

 25 percent or higher 37.4 51.4 11.2 

—Sample size too small for a reliable estimate. 1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).
High School Academic Curriculum

11

(20 percent versus 16 percent) and less likely to complete core curricula or lower (29 percent versus 34 percent), but there was not enough statistical evidence to draw this conclusion.

Unlike age cohort studies, the BPS survey includes older students who may have delayed

college enrollment. Differences in academic curricula were apparent relative to age, but only at

the lower levels. That is, students 19 or older completed programs no higher than the core curricula at a much higher rate than did traditional age students, 18 or younger (42 percent versus 29

percent). However, the two age groups did not differ in their rates of completing rigorous high

school curricula (18 and 19 percent, respectively).

As levels of family income rose, so did the proportion of students who reported completing

rigorous high school curricula. Similarly, as the level of parents’ education increased, so did the

proportion of students who reported completing rigorous academic curricula.

College Entrance Exam (SAT) Scores

How well students scored on their SAT entrance exams was strongly associated with the

level of high school academic curricula they had completed. For example, just 2 percent of students who scored in the lowest SAT quartile had completed rigorous academic curricula, compared with 44 percent who scored in the highest SAT quartile. However, among those who

scored in the highest SAT quartile, the likelihood of completing rigorous curricula (44 percent)

was no higher than the likelihood of completing mid-level curricula (41 percent).

High School Economic Status Indicator

Not all high schools offer the level of courses required to complete a rigorous curriculum.

Schools that do not have the financial resources may not be able to offer AP or honors-level

courses. This analysis used the proportion of a school’s student body eligible for a free or reduced-price lunch as an indicator of the economic status of the high school. Three levels of eligibility were identified: 0–4 percent, 5–24 percent, and 25 percent or more eligible for free or

reduced-price lunch. Similar to student socioeconomic indicators (income and parents’ education), the high school economic status indicator and the level of academic curriculum students

completed exhibited an obvious association. That is, with each successive level of free or reduced-price lunch eligibility, the likelihood of completing a rigorous curriculum declined among

4-year college students who had attended these schools (from 27 to 17 to 11 percent).
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13

Persistence Path Through College

Three years after first entering 4-year institutions in 1995–96, about 60 percent of undergraduates had been continuously enrolled at their first institution (or had attained a degree), 6

percent had left and returned to the same institution, and 20 percent had transferred to another

postsecondary institution (figure 2). The remaining 13 percent had left postsecondary education

from their first institution without returning. The paths from first enrollment to final enrollment

status 3 years later are discussed in the following sections.

Figure 2.—Postsecondary persistence path of 1995–96 beginning students who enrolled in 4-year

Figure 2.—institutions, 3 years after first enrollment (as of 1998)

1

Maintained continuous enrollment in first institution or earned a bachelor’s degree. 2

Transferred to a 4-year institution with no break in enrollment.

3

Stopped out (break of more than 4 months) and/or enrolled in a less-than-4-year institution.

4

Maintained continuous enrollment in any 4-year institution.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

0.7 Earned bachelor's degree

Continuously enrolled

Left without return

Transferred

Retention at first institution 

4.6 

Left without return

Off bachelor’s track3

Off 

bachelor’s

track3

Stayed on bachelor’s 

degree track2

14.0 

18.0 

68.1 

56.6 

38.9 

59.9 

12.7 

20.4 Bachelor's 

track4

6.2 Stopped out and returned

75.6 

16.4 

Bachelor's 

track1

 Left without 

return

8.0

Off 

bachelor’s

track3

Status in 1998 Status of 

all in 1998

 Left without 

return

No transfer

Transferred
Persistence Path Through College

14

Starting Out

Students’ experiences in their first year of college play an important role in the process of

persistence (Tinto 1993). Where students begin college, how well they perform in their first year,

and their level of involvement in academic activities are important indicators of their likelihood

of persisting.

Where They Enroll

High school academic curricula completed by beginning college students were obviously

related to where they first enrolled (table 2). For example, just over two-thirds of those who had

completed rigorous curricula enrolled in selective 4-year institutions (38 percent in public and 33

percent in private not-for-profit institutions). In contrast, one-third who completed curricula no

higher than the core level had enrolled in selective institutions—22 percent in public and 10 percent in private not-for-profit institutions. Those who completed mid-level curricula also were less

likely than their counterparts who completed rigorous curricula to attend more selective 4-year

institutions, but they were no more likely than those in core curricula to do so.

Table 2.—Percentage distribution of institution type where 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions

Table 2.—first enrolled, by high school academic curriculum

Private Private

 Public2 not-for-profit3 Public not-for-profit

 Total 25.2 14.9 38.1 21.8

High school academic curriculum

 Core curriculum or less4 22.1 10.2 45.1 22.5

 Mid-level5 27.0 13.1 38.5 21.5

 Rigorous6 37.7 33.4 15.9 13.0

1

Selective institutions are identified within Carnegie classifications and are those institutions in which students’ average SAT

scores exceeded 1000 or Carnegie classifications in which a majority of students were enrolled in very selective institutions. 

Less-selective institutions are all others not identified in the selective groups.

2

Public 4-year Research I or II Universities and Baccalaureate I institutions.

3

Private, not-for-profit 4-year Research I or II Universities, Doctoral I or II Universities, and Baccalaureate I institutions.

4

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

5

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

6

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Less-selective1 Selective1
Persistence Path Through College

15

Remedial Coursework

Enrollment in remedial courses in the first year of college may reflect students’ level of

high school academic preparation. Roughly 14 percent of those who began in a 4-year institution

reported taking remedial classes in their first year of college (table 3). With each successive level

of high school academic curricula, the proportion taking remedial courses declined, from 19 percent of those who completed no higher than core curricula, to 13 percent of those completing

mid-level curricula, to 3 percent of those completing rigorous curricula. Examining types of remedial courses taken revealed the same pattern. For example, 13 percent of those completing

academic curricula no higher than the core level reported taking remedial mathematics classes,

compared with 7 percent of those in mid-level curricula, and 1 percent of those completing rigorous curricula.

Table 3.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who reported taking remedial

Table 3.—courses in their first year of college, by high school academic curriculum

 Any remedial English

courses language Mathematics Reading Study skills Writing

 Total 13.8 3.7 8.8 4.8 4.1 6.1

High school academic curriculum

 Core curriculum or less1 19.3 5.7 13.3 6.9 5.8 8.8

 Mid-level2 12.8 3.3 7.2 4.0 3.5 5.4

 Rigorous3 2.7 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.3 2.0

1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

First-Year Grades

There was an obvious relationship between students’ high school academic curricula and

their first-year GPA, especially with respect to the overall average GPA (table 4). That is, with

each level of high school academic curricula completed, students’ GPA increased (from 2.5 to

2.7 to 3.1). However, the most notable differences occurred between students who had completed

rigorous curricula and all others. Differences between students who had completed core curricula

or lower and those who had completed mid-level curricula were not as apparent. For example,

looking across a distribution of GPA quartiles, the proportions in the lowest quartile (i.e., those
Persistence Path Through College

16

with 2.1 GPAs or lower) did not differ measurably between the two groups (30 percent and 25

percent), but both groups were roughly three times more likely than those who completed rigorous curricula to earn such low GPAs.

Table 4.—Grade-point average (GPA) and percentage distribution of GPA quartiles for 1995–96 beginning 

Table 4.—students in their first year of college among those enrolled in 4-year institutions, by high school 

Table 4.—academic curriculum

 Lowest quartile Middle quartiles High quartile Average

 (2.11 or lower) (2.12–3.26) (3.37 and higher) first-year GPA

 Total 24.6 50.2 25.2 2.69

High school academic curriculum

 Core curriculum or less1 29.9 50.9 19.2 2.53

 Mid-level2 24.5 51.5 24.0 2.67

 Rigorous3 7.8 50.0 42.1 3.10

1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Study Groups and Communication With Faculty

Students who are actively involved with other students and who are able to communicate

with faculty and advisors outside of class are likely to do better and stay in school than their

counterparts who are less involved (Tinto 1993; Pascarella and Terenzini 1977). In this analysis,

unlike with GPA and remedial coursework, there was little association between high school academic curricula and the frequency with which students reported participating in study groups or

communicating with faculty in their first year of college (table 5). For example, regardless of

high school academic curricula, about one-quarter of students reported frequently attending study

groups or often talking with faculty outside the classroom. Students who completed rigorous high

school curricula were actually less likely than those completing mid-level curricula to report

meeting often with an advisor to discuss plans (16 percent versus 23 percent). This may reflect

the confidence that those completing rigorous curricula have in their college academic program,

relative to their peers reporting less rigorous high school curricula.
Persistence Path Through College

17

Table 5.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students who reported frequent participation in various

Table 5.—academic activities in their first year in college, among those enrolled in 4-year institutions,

Table 5.—by high school academic curriculum

 Attend Meet with advisor Talk with faculty

study groups about plans outside class

 Total 24.6 19.9 24.6

High school academic curriculum

 Core curriculum or less1 23.3 19.6 24.2

 Mid-level2 25.6 22.5 26.4

 Rigorous3 25.2 16.2 25.2

1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Persistence at First Institution

Three years after first enrolling, 4-year college students’ high school curricula was strongly

associated with their enrollment status at their first institution (figure 3 and table 6). For example,

78 percent of students who had completed rigorous high school academic curricula had been

continuously enrolled in their initial institution, compared with 62 percent and 55 percent, respectively, of those in mid-level or no higher than core curricula. Students who had completed

rigorous curricula also were less likely to transfer from their first institution (13 percent) than

those who had completed less rigorous programs, whether mid-level or core levels or below (23

percent of both groups transferred).

Staying on Track to a Bachelor’s Degree

The difference between levels of academic curricula was especially notable with respect to

staying on track to a bachelor’s degree (i.e., maintaining continuous enrollment in any 4-year institution). As the level of academic curricula increased, so did the proportion of undergraduates

who stayed on track (figure 4). As of 1998, the vast majority of those who had completed rigorous high school academic curricula (87 percent) were still on track to a bachelor’s degree, compared with 71 percent of those who had completed mid-level curricula, and 62 percent of those

who completed core curricula or lower. Correspondingly, the proportion of those who had left

postsecondary education and did not return declined with each successive level of academic curriculum (from 17 percent to 10 percent to 4 percent).
Persistence Path Through College

18

Figure 3.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students’ 1998 enrollment status in their first

Figure 3.—institution for those who began in a 4-year institution, by high school academic curriculum

1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Mid-level2 Rigorous3 Core curriculum or less1

0.7 Bachelor's degree

Continuously enrolled

Left without return

Transferred

6.3 Stopped out 

 and returned

54.6 

15.4 

23.1 

9.1 

0.2 Bachelor's degree

Continuously enrolled

Left without return

Transferred

5.6 Stopped out 

 and returned

61.8

23.2 

1.2 Bachelor's degree

Continuously enrolled

3.1 Left without return

Transferred

4.2 Stopped out 

 and returned

78.1

13.4 

Status at first institution

Table 6.—Percentage distribution by enrollment status in first institution as of 1998, among 1995–96

Table 6.—beginning students who first enrolled in 4-year institutions, by high school academic curriculum

 Bachelor’s Continuously Stopped out1 Continuous Stopped out1 Left without

 degree enrolled and returned transfer and transferred return

 Total 0.7 59.9 6.2 15.2 5.2 12.7 

High school academic curriculum

 Core curriculum or less2 0.7 54.6 6.3 16.4 6.7 15.4 

 Mid-level3 0.2 61.8 5.6 17.9 5.3 9.1 

 Rigorous4 1.2 78.1 4.2 11.3 2.1 3.1 

1

A stopout is defined as an enrollment break of more than 4 months.

2

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

3

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

4

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).
Persistence Path Through College

19

Figure 4.—Enrollment status in 1998 of 1995–96 beginning students who first enrolled in 4-year

Figure 4.—institutions, by high school academic curriculum

1

Continuously enrolled in any 4-year institution.

2

Stopped out (break of 4 or more months) and/or enrolled in a less-than-4-year institution.

3

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

4

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

5

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Mid-level4 Rigorous5 Core curriculum or less3

Bachelor's 

track1

Bachelor's 

track1

Bachelor's 

track1

Left 

without 

return

4.2

Left 

without 

return

Left 

without 

return

Enrollment status of all in 1998

19.0 

70.8

10.3 

86.6 

16.9 

21.2 

61.9 

9.2 

Off 

bachelor’s track

Off 2

bachelor’s

track2

Off 

bachelor’s

track2

Roughly one-fifth of students who had completed less than rigorous academic curricula (19

percent from mid-level and 21 percent from core or lower) had left the bachelor’s degree track,

but were still enrolled in postsecondary education in 1998. Leaving the track meant they either

had a break in enrollment of more than 4 months (stopped out), or they transferred to a less-than4-year institution. Students completing either mid-level or no higher than core curricula did not

differ in their likelihood of leaving the persistence track. In contrast, just 9 percent of those who

completed rigorous curricula left the bachelor’s degree track.
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21

Transfer Path

While most student departures from postsecondary institutions are not academic dismissals,

many voluntary withdrawals occur in anticipation of academic failure, “sometimes in order to

transfer to other institutions where academic demands are seen as more reasonable” (Tinto 1993,

p. 51). Although the search for a better fit may be the motivation for many of the transfers from

4-year institutions, some studies have shown that any disruption in the educational sequence (including transferring between institutions) may negatively affect degree completion (Pascarella

and Terenzini 1991). The findings from this study indicate that, despite transferring, those who

completed rigorous academic curricula were likely to stay on track to a bachelor’s degree.

Staying on Track to a Bachelor’s Degree

As previously noted, the likelihood of transferring from the initial 4-year institution was

similar for those completing high school academic curricula no higher than core levels and those

completing mid-level curricula. That is, roughly one-quarter in either group had transferred from

their first institution, while just 13 percent completing rigorous curricula had done so. However,

among transfers, the higher the level of academic curriculum completed in high school, the

greater the likelihood of staying on track to a bachelor’s degree (figure 5).7 For those who completed no higher than core curricula, 31 percent of transfers stayed on track to a bachelor’s degree, as did 39 percent of transfers who completed mid-level curricula, and 60 percent of

transfers who had completed rigorous curricula.

Transfer Destinations

Consistent with McCormick’s (1997) research on transfer behavior using the earlier BPS

cohort, transfer students were highly likely to leave the 4-year sector. Nearly 40 percent had

transferred to a less-than-4-year institution (table 7).8 However, if transfers had completed a rigorous high school curriculum, they were about half as likely to transfer out of the 4-year sector as

their counterparts completing lower levels of academic curricula (21 percent versus 40 to 46 percent).

 

7Those who were off track had a break in enrollment of more than 4 months (stopout) and/or transferred to a less-than-4-year

institution or a for-profit 4-year institution.

8This group includes a small percentage who transferred to for-profit 4-year institutions.
Transfer Path

22

Figure 5.—For 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution, percentage 

Figure 5.—distribution of enrollment status in 1998 with respect to earning a bachelor’s degree, by high

Figure 5.—school academic curriculum

1

Continuously enrolled in any 4-year institution.

2

Stopped out (break of 4 or more months) and/or enrolled in a less-than-4-year institution.

3

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

4

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

5

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Mid-level4

Left without return

4.5 

Rigorous5

Left without return

7.4 

Core curriculum or less3

Left without return

5.4 

Bachelor's 

track1

Bachelor's 

track1

Bachelor's 

track1

32.3 

60.4 

38.5 

57.0 63.5 

31.1 Off 

bachelor’s

track2

Off 

bachelor’s

track2

Off 

bachelor’s

track2

Enrollment status of transfers in 1998

By definition, transfers who stay on track to a bachelor’s degree transfer to another 4-year

institution without a break in enrollment. However, there were differences across high school

academic curricula with respect to the selectivity of the institution where they transferred.

Among all transfers who completed rigorous high school curricula, 40 percent transferred to a

selective institution, compared with just 21 percent and 17 percent of their counterparts who

completed either mid-level or no higher than core curricula, respectively. On the other hand, the

likelihood of transferring to a less-selective 4-year institution (or for-profit 4-year institution) was

similar regardless of academic curricula: just under 40 percent of transfers in each group transferred to less selective 4-year institutions.
Transfer Path

23

Table 7.—Among 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution, percentage

Table 7.—distribution according to their transfer institution, by high school academic curriculum and

Table 7.—selectivity of first institution

Transfer destination

Less-than-4-year

 4-year institution or for-profit

 Selective1 Less-selective2 4-year

 Total 21.3 39.5 39.3

High school academic curriculum

 Core curriculum or less3 17.4 36.9 45.7

 Mid-level4 20.9 39.0 40.1

 Rigorous5 40.4 38.9 20.8

 Total 34.1 30.0 35.9

 Core curriculum or less3 21.5 31.4 47.1

 Mid-level4 32.8 27.6 39.6

 Rigorous5 48.5 32.4 19.1

 Total 14.7 44.3 41.0

 Core curriculum or less3 16.2 38.4 45.4

 Mid-level4 13.3 46.2 40.5

 Rigorous5 25.0 50.9 24.0

1

Selective institutions are public and private not-for-profit institutions in which students’ average SAT scores 

exceeded 1000 or Carnegie classifications in which a majority of students were enrolled in very selective institutions. 2

Less-selective institutions are all others not identified in the selective groups.

3

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

4

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

5

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

All transfers from 4-year institutions

Began in selective institution 

Began in less-selective institution

Examining the selectivity of students’ first institution with their second, the likelihood of

making a lateral transfer from selective to selective institution was much higher for those completing rigorous high school curricula (49 percent) than for those completing either mid-level

curricula (33 percent) or no higher than core curricula (22 percent). Similarly, the likelihood of
Transfer Path

24

transferring from a selective institution to a less-than-4-year or for-profit institution was much

lower for those completing rigorous curricula (19 percent) than for their counterparts completing

mid-level curricula (40 percent) or no higher than core curricula (47 percent).

While the patterns of transfer appeared to be similar among those who began in lessselective institutions (i.e., those completing rigorous high school curricula more likely than those

in less rigorous curricula either to transfer to a selective institution or to transfer laterally, and

less likely to transfer to less-than-4-year or for-profit 4-year institutions), there is not enough statistical evidence to draw this conclusion.

Finally, as was shown in figure 5, transfers also left postsecondary education at similar

rates no matter what their high school academic program. Approximately 5 percent of students

who completed either mid-level or no higher than core curricula had left postsecondary education, as had 7 percent who had completed rigorous curricula.

Reasons Given for Transferring

Students who transferred from their first institutions were asked what their first reason was

for leaving. There were few differences in the type of reason reported with respect to high school

academic curricula. Reasons that did vary with curricula were related either to academic problems or changing majors or degree programs. As shown in table 8, students who completed midlevel academic curricula were more likely than those who completed rigorous curricula to report

academic problems as their first reason for transferring (8 percent versus 2 percent), though the

mid-level group did not differ from those who completed no higher than core curricula (5 percent).

As the level of high school academic curricula increased, so did the proportion who reported changing degree programs or majors as their first reason for transferring; 4 percent of

transfers who completed no higher than core curricula reported this as their first reason for transferring, as did 10 percent who completed mid-level, and 14 percent who completed rigorous curricula.

Though it appears as though the pattern is reversed for reasons related to location, work, or

home demands (i.e., as level of curricula goes up, the frequency of reporting these reasons declines), there was not enough statistical evidence to draw this conclusion.
Transfer Path

25

Table 8.—Among 1995–96 beginning students who transferred from a 4-year institution, the percentage

Table 8.—reporting their first reason for leaving, by high school academic curriculum

 Class Changed Location/

schedule/ degree Any work/ Any other

Academic not satisfied program financial home or no reason

 problems with program or major reason demands given

 Total 6.2 23.3 8.9 18.4 13.6 29.6

High school academic curriculum

 Core curriculum or less1 5.0 20.2 3.7 21.5 17.4 32.3

 Mid-level2 8.0 24.1 10.3 16.9 13.0 27.7

 Rigorous3 2.3 20.2 13.7 17.0 10.0 36.7

1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
27

Controlling for Related Variables

In addition to high school academic curricula, many other variables may influence postsecondary education outcomes. Therefore, it is necessary to control for their simultaneous effects

to determine the net contribution of each variable to the outcome in question. In particular, as

was shown in table 1, students’ SAT composite scores were highly correlated with their high

school academic curricula. Similarly, the likelihood of attending a selective institution was far

higher for those completing rigorous academic curricula. Thus, covariance adjustment techniques

using simple regression models (see appendix B under “Adjustments of Means to Control for

Covariation” for details of method) were used to disentangle the net influence of related independent variables.

Two outcome (dependent) variables were analyzed: (1) continuous enrollment in the initial

institution, and (2) staying on track to a bachelor’s degree. Each dependent variable was coded as

a dichotomous measure (yes/no). Independent variables included in the regression models reflected students’ academic experience in high school (academic curricula and college entrance

exam scores), demographic characteristics (gender, race/ethnicity, age at college entry), socioeconomic background (income and parents’ education), and the economic status of their high

schools (as measured by the proportion of students eligible for free or reduced-price lunches).

Other variables reflected students’ experiences in college, including the type of postsecondary

institution in which students first enrolled, enrollment status (full or part time) when they first

enrolled, and work status while enrolled. Finally, because independent variables may indirectly

affect persistence through an association with college grades, and college grades are a strong predictor of success in college,9 each regression was run twice, once without and then with first-year

GPA (entered as a continuous variable).

Continuous Enrollment at First Institution

The results of the first multivariate analysis are presented in table 9. The first column displays the unadjusted percentages—that is, the proportion of students who stayed continuously

enrolled in their initial institution for 3 years. The second column displays the percentages

 

9In research summarized by Pascarella and Terenzini (1991), the authors conclude: “A student’s grades are probably the single

most revealing indicator of his or her successful adjustment to the intellectual demands of a particular college’s course of study

... as a measure of successful adaptation to an academic environment, grades tend to reflect not only requisite intellectual skills,

but also desirable personal work habits and attitudes” (p. 388).
Controlling for Related Variables

28

Table 9.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who were continuously enrolled in

Table 9.—their first institution or attained a bachelor’s degree as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage after

Table 9.—taking into account the covariation of the variables listed in the table

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

estimates1 estimates2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 60.7 60.6 31.5 4.58 

High school academic curriculum

 Mid-level5 62.1* 59.8 3.4 2.34 

 Rigorous6 79.3* 70.1* 13.7 3.30 

 Core curriculum or less 7 55.3 56.4 † †

Derived SAT combined score

 Lowest quartile (400–790) 48.5* 53.6* -7.7 2.75 

 Highest quartile (1100–1600) 74.8* 65.6 4.3 2.71 

 Middle quartiles (800–1090) 63.4 61.3 † †

Gender

 Female 61.6* 61.8 2.5 2.03 

 Male 59.5 59.3 † †

Race/ethnicity

 American Indian/Alaskan Native 74.1 77.1 16.8 12.74 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 69.2 65.3 5.0 4.35 

 Hispanic 58.2 62.4 2.1 3.28 

 Black, non-Hispanic 50.2* 57.6 -2.7 3.62 

 White, non-Hispanic 61.6 60.3 † †

Family income in 1994

 Low income 51.5* 57.4 -3.9 2.94 

 Middle income or high income 62.6 61.3 † †

Parents’ highest education

 High school or less 51.2* 56.8* -5.9 2.26 

 Attended college or higher 64.4 62.7 † †

Free or reduced-price lunch eligibility at high school

 25 percent or higher 58.2* 60.7 0.1 2.20 

 0–24 percent 64.3 60.6 † †

First 4-year institution8

 Public selective9 69.8* 65.1* 7.2 2.75 

 Private not-for-profit selective10 71.7* 63.9 6.0 3.39 

 Private not-for-profit less-selective 55.3 58.2 0.3 2.73 

 Public less-selective 53.3 57.9 † †

Attendance status first enrolled

 Full time 62.9* 61.9* 13.0 3.62 

 Part time 40.1 49.0 † †
Controlling for Related Variables

29

Table 9—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who were continuously enrolled in

Table 9—their first institution or attained a bachelor’s degree as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage after

Table 9—taking into account the covariation of the variables listed in the table—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

estimates1 estimates2 coefficient3

error4

Hours worked when first enrolled

 Did not work 66.3* 63.5* 15.0 3.73 

 Part time 62.0* 61.1* 12.5 3.58 

 Full time 42.1 48.6 † †

*p<0.05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

6

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

7

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

8

Selective institutions are identified within Carnegie classifications and are those institutions in which students’ average SAT

scores exceeded 1000 or Carnegie classifications in which a majority of students were enrolled in very selective institutions. 

Less-selective institutions are all others not identified in the selective groups.

9

Public 4-year Research I or II Universities and Baccalaureate I institutions.

10Private, not-for-profit 4-year Research I or II Universities, Doctoral I or II Universities, and Baccalaureate I institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

after adjusting for the covariation among all the independent variables listed in the table. In other

words, the second column shows the net influence of each independent variable, once other variables are taken into account. The italicized category for each variable is the reference group

against which all comparisons and tests of statistical significance are made. Asterisks indicate

when a particular category of a variable differs significantly from the reference group. If asterisks

appear in both columns, it means that even after controlling for related variables, a particular

variable is associated with the outcome. For example, students who began in selective public institutions were more likely to stay continuously enrolled for 3 years than students who began in

less-selective public institutions (comparison group). This remained true after adjusting for the

covariation of related variables.

The multivariate results demonstrate a distinct advantage that students who completed rigorous high school curricula held over those who completed no higher than core curricula (the

comparison group). That is, after controlling for demographic characteristics, high school socioeconomic status, SAT scores, and other related variables, students who completed rigorous high
Controlling for Related Variables

30

school academic curricula were more likely to remain continuously enrolled at their first institution than those who completed no higher than core curricula. Students who completed mid-level

curricula, on the other hand, did not differ measurably in their likelihood of staying enrolled at

their first institution from their counterparts who completed core curricula or lower.

Other independent variables associated with persistence at the first institution after covariance adjustment included parents’ education (those whose parents completed no higher than a

high school education were less likely to stay continuously enrolled than their peers whose parents attended college),10 attendance status when first enrolled (students who enrolled full time

were much more likely to stay continuously enrolled than those who began part time), employment while enrolled (students who were working full time when they began college were less

likely to stay continuously enrolled than those working part time or not working), and SAT

scores (those scoring in the lowest quartile were less likely to stay continuously enrolled than

those scoring higher).

Table 10 shows the results of the same means adjustment analysis after including first-year

GPA as an independent continuous variable in the regression model. Students’ high school academic curricula continued to play a role in persistence at the first institution even when GPA was

taken into account. Students who completed rigorous high school curricula were still more likely

to stay continuously enrolled in their first institution than those who completed curricula no

higher than core levels. Similarly, all the other variables that had been significant before adding

GPA as an independent variable (i.e., adjusted estimates in table 9), remained significant after

GPA was added with the exception of SAT scores. SAT scores no longer had a direct association

with persistence at the first institution (adjusted estimates in table 10).

Staying on Track to a Bachelor’s Degree

When examining the likelihood of staying on track to a bachelor’s degree (which includes

transfer students), high school curriculum appeared to play an even stronger role in predicting

persistence at first institution (table 11). That is, students who completed either rigorous high

school curricula or those who completed mid-level curricula were more likely to stay on track to

a bachelor’s degree than their counterparts who completed no higher than core curricula. In other

words, when transfers were included in the outcome, those who completed mid-level academic

curricula held an advantage over those who completed no higher than core curricula.

 

10A recent NCES report provides a detailed analysis of the experiences of “first-generation” college students—those whose parents did not attend college (Warburton, Bugarin, and Nuñez 2001).
Controlling for Related Variables

31

Table 10.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who were continuously enrolled

Table 10.—in their first institution or attained a bachelor’s degree as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage

Table 10.—after taking into account the covariation of the variables listed in the table, controlling for firstTable 10.—year college GPA

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

estimates1 estimates2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 60.7 60.6 -12.2 5.08 

High school academic curriculum

 Mid-level curriculum6 62.1* 60.3 2.2 2.21 

 Rigorous7 79.3* 66.0* 7.9 3.13 

 Core curriculum or less 8 55.3 58.0 † †

Derived SAT combined score

 Lowest quartile (400–790) 48.5* 61.2 -0.2 2.63 

 Highest quartile (1100–1600) 74.8* 58.4 -3.0 2.59 

 Middle quartiles (800–1090) 63.4 61.4 † †

Gender

 Female 61.6* 59.8 -1.9 1.93 

 Male 59.5 61.7 † †

Race/ethnicity

 American Indian/Alaskan Native 74.1 69.8 10.3 12.03 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 69.2 65.4 5.9 4.11 

 Hispanic 58.2 64.7 5.2 3.10 

 Black, non-Hispanic 50.2* 62.1 2.7 3.43 

 White, non-Hispanic 61.6 59.5 † †

Family income in 1994

 Low income 51.5* 57.6 -3.6 2.78 

 Middle income or high income 62.6 61.2 † †

Parents’ highest education

 High school or less 51.2* 56.9* -5.8 2.13 

 Attended college or higher 64.4 62.7 † †

Free or reduced-price lunch eligibility at high school

 25 percent or higher 58.2* 60.7 0.1 2.08 

 0–24 percent 64.3 60.6 † †

First 4-year institution9

 Public selective10 69.8* 65.6* 7.0 2.59 

 Private not-for-profit selective11 71.7* 64.2 5.6 3.20 

 Private not-for-profit less-selective 55.3 56.1 -2.5 2.58 

 Public less-selective 53.3 58.6 † †

Attendance status first enrolled

 Full time 62.9* 61.9* 13.0 3.41 

 Part time 40.1 49.0 † †

Controlling for GPA5
Controlling for Related Variables

32

Table 10.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who were continuously enrolled

Table 10.—in their first institution or attained a bachelor’s degree as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage

Table 10.—after taking into account the covariation of the variables listed in the table, controlling for firstTable 10—year college GPA—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

estimates1 estimates2 coefficient3

error4

Hours worked when first enrolled

 Did not work 66.3* 63.0* 12.7 3.52 

 Part time 62.0* 61.1* 10.7 3.38 

 Full time 42.1 50.3 † †

*p<0.05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Added as a continuous independent variable simultaneously with all other independent variables.

6

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

7

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

8

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

9

Selective institutions are identified within Carnegie classifications and are those institutions in which students’ average SAT

scores exceeded 1000 or Carnegie classifications in which a majority of students were enrolled in very selective institutions. 

Less-selective institutions are all others not identified in the selective groups.

10Public 4-year Research I or II Universities and Baccalaureate I institutions.

11Private, not-for-profit 4-year Research I or II Universities, Doctoral I or II Universities, and Baccalaureate I institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Controlling for GPA5

Prior to adding GPA into the regression model, SAT scores also predicted staying on track

to a bachelor’s degree. However, as shown in table 12, once GPA was taken into account, SAT

scores were no longer associated with staying on track to a bachelor’s degree. High school curricula, on the other hand, remained a significant predictor of staying on track to a bachelor’s degree. However, the difference between the completing mid-level curricula and completing

curricula no higher than core levels did not reach statistical significance.11

Many of the same variables that were important for predicting persistence at first institution

remained significant for predicting the likelihood of staying on track to a bachelor’s degree (both

 

11Prior to adjusting the standard error for the design effect of the dependent variable, the two groups (mid-level and core curricula) were significantly different in their rate of staying on track to a bachelor’s degree, but after adjusting for the design effect,

the difference did not reach statistical significance (t=1.90). See appendix B for a description the design effect adjustment procedure.
Controlling for Related Variables

33

Table 11.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who remained on bachelor’s

Table 11.—degree track as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage after taking into account the covariation

Table 11.—of the variables listed in the table

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

 estimates1 estimates2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 68.1 68.1 30.8 4.24 

High school academic curriculum

 Mid-level curriculum5 70.8* 68.1* 5.0 2.16 

 Rigorous6 86.6* 76.4* 13.4 3.05 

 Core curriculum or less 7 61.9 63.0 † †

Derived SAT combined score

 Lowest quartile (400–790) 54.9* 59.9* -9.1 2.54 

 Highest quartile (1100–1600) 82.7* 73.4 4.3 2.50 

 Middle quartiles (800–1090) 71.6 69.0 † †

Gender

 Female 70.2* 70.3* 5.0 1.88 

 Male 65.5 65.3 † †

Race/ethnicity

 American Indian/Alaskan Native 82.1 88.7 21.0 11.80 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 74.6 71.1 3.4 4.03 

 Hispanic 66.1 70.7 3.0 3.03 

 Black, non-Hispanic 56.4* 64.8 -2.9 3.35 

 White, non-Hispanic 69.2 67.7 † †

Family income in 1994

 Low income 57.8* 64.6 -4.1 2.72 

 Middle income or high income 70.3 68.7 † †

Parents’ highest education

 High school or less 57.4* 63.7* -6.7 2.09 

 Attended college or higher 72.5 70.4 † †

Free or reduced-price lunch eligibility at high school

 25 percent or higher 63.8* 70.1 3.2 2.04 

 0–24 percent 73.0 66.9 † †

First 4-year institution8

 Public selective9 75.5* 70.4 4.8 2.54 

 Private not-for-profit selective10 81.6* 72.7* 7.0 3.14 

 Private not-for-profit less-selective 63.7 66.4 0.8 2.53 

 Public less-selective 60.4 65.7 † †

Attendance status first enrolled

 Full time 70.7* 69.5* 14.9 3.35 

 Part time 43.7 54.6 † †
Controlling for Related Variables

34

Table 11—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who remained on bachelor’s

Table 11—degree track as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage after taking into account the covariation

Table 11—of variables listed in the table—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

 estimates1 estimates2 coefficient3

error4

Hours worked when first enrolled

 Did not work 74.1* 71.5* 19.3 3.45 

 Part time 69.8* 68.9* 16.8 3.31 

 Full time 44.9 52.1 † †

*p<0.05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

6

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

7

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

8

Selective institutions are identified within Carnegie classifications and are those institutions in which students’ average SAT

scores exceeded 1000 or Carnegie classifications in which a majority of students were enrolled in very selective institutions. 

Less-selective institutions are all others not identified in the selective groups.

9

Public 4-year Research I or II Universities and Baccalaureate I institutions.

10Private, not-for-profit 4-year Research I or II Universities, Doctoral I or II Universities, and Baccalaureate I institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

before and after adding GPA). For example, the disadvantage of starting college either attending

part time (versus full time) or working full time (versus part time or not working) remained pronounced for staying on track to a bachelor’s degree. Similarly, students whose parents did not

pursue an education beyond high school were less likely to stay on track than those whose parents attended college.

On the other hand, the influence of first institution type on the rate of staying on track to a

bachelor’s degree changed. In predicting whether or not students remained continuously enrolled

at their first institution, attending a public selective institution (versus a public less-selective institution) produced a higher rate of persistence, while the rate for those starting in selective private not-for-profit institutions did not appear to differ from the rate of those in public lessselective institutions. Staying on track to bachelor’s degree on the other hand, was more likely to

occur for those who began in a selective private not-for-profit institution (versus public lessselective), while the rate for those who began in public selective institutions did not appear to

differ from that of their counterparts in public less-selective institutions.
Controlling for Related Variables

35

Table 12.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who remained on bachelor’s

Table 12.—degree track as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage after taking into account the covariation

Table 12.—of the variables listed in the table, controlling for first-year college GPA

 Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

 estimates1 estimates2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 68.1 68.1 -15.8 4.62 

High school academic curriculum

 Mid-level curriculum6 70.8* 68.6 3.8 2.01 

 Rigorous7 86.6* 72.1* 7.3 2.85 

 Core curriculum or less 8 61.9 64.8 † †

Derived SAT combined score

 Lowest quartile (400–790) 54.9* 68.1 -1.1 2.39 

 Highest quartile (1100–1600) 82.7* 65.6 -3.5 2.36 

 Middle quartiles (800–1090) 71.6 69.1 † †

Gender

 Female 70.2* 68.2 0.3 1.76 

 Male 65.5 67.9 † †

Race/ethnicity

 American Indian/Alaskan Native 82.1 80.9 14.1 10.94 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 74.6 71.1 4.3 3.73 

 Hispanic 66.1 73.1* 6.4 2.82 

 Black, non-Hispanic 56.4* 69.6 2.8 3.12 

 White, non-Hispanic 69.2 66.8 † †

Family income in 1994

 Low income 57.8* 64.8 -3.8 2.52 

 Middle income or high income 70.3 68.7 † †

Parents’ highest education

 High school or less 57.4* 63.8* -6.6 1.94 

 Attended college or higher 72.5 70.4 † †

Free or reduced-price lunch eligibility at high school

 25 percent or higher 63.8* 70.1 3.2 1.89 

 0–24 percent 73.0 66.9 † †

First 4-year institution9

 Public selective10 75.5* 71.0 4.6 2.36 

 Private not-for-profit selective11 81.6* 73.0* 6.6 2.91 

 Private not-for-profit less-selective 63.7 64.2 -2.2 2.35 

 Public less-selective 60.4 66.4 † †

Attendance status first enrolled

 Full time 70.7* 69.5* 15.0 3.10 

 Part time 43.7 54.6 † †

Controlling for GPA5
Controlling for Related Variables

36

Table 12—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions who remained on bachelor’s

Table 12—degree track as of 1998 and the adjusted percentage after taking into account the covariation

Table 12—of the variables listed in the table, controlling for first-year college GPA—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

 estimates1 estimates2 coefficient3

error4

Hours worked when first enrolled

 Did not work 74.1* 71.0* 17.0 3.20 

 Part time 69.8* 68.9* 14.9 3.07 

 Full time 44.9 54.0 † †

*p<0.05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Added as a continuous independent variable simultaneously with all other independent variables.

6

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

7

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

8

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

9

Selective institutions are identified within Carnegie classifications and are those institutions in which students’ average SAT

scores exceeded 1000 or Carnegie classifications in which a majority of students were enrolled in very selective institutions. 

Less-selective institutions are all others not identified in the selective groups.

10Public 4-year Research I or II Universities and Baccalaureate I institutions.

11Private, not-for-profit 4-year Research I or II Universities, Doctoral I or II Universities, and Baccalaureate I institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Controlling for GPA5

With respect to students’ background characteristics, there were no gender or racial/ethnic

differences in the rates of persistence at first institution, but the same was not true for staying on

track to a bachelor’s degree. Prior to controlling for GPA, women were more likely than men to

stay on track, but differences by race/ethnicity were not significant. After controlling for GPA,

the gender difference disappeared, but Hispanic students’ rate of staying on track was higher than

that of White students. It is not clear why differences by gender and race/ethnicity should not

have been the same for both measures of persistence (i.e., institutional retention and bachelor’s

degree persistence track).
37

Summary and Conclusions

The findings of this study demonstrated a consistent advantage experienced by students

who completed rigorous high school curricula—and to a lesser extent by those completing midlevel academic curricula—over their peers in core curricula or lower. Those who completed rigorous curricula were more likely to stay enrolled in their first institution or, if they transferred, to

stay on track to a bachelor’s degree.

It stands to reason that the level of coursework completed by students in high school would

be associated in part with their early education and opportunities to take advanced coursework. In

this study, students from low-income families, those whose parents attained no higher than a high

school education, and those who attended high schools in which a large proportion of the students were eligible for free or reduced-price lunches all were less likely to have completed a rigorous high school academic curriculum than their more advantaged counterparts. It also stands to

reason that students who complete a rigorous curriculum would score higher on their college entrance exams, enroll in more selective colleges and universities, and earn higher grades in their

first year of college. All of these associations were demonstrated in this study. Yet, once all such

related variables were taken into consideration, high school academic curriculum continued to

play a role in how well students persisted toward their college degree. For both measures of persistence—staying continuously enrolled in the same institution (institutional retention) and staying on track to a bachelor’s degree if they transferred—students who completed a rigorous high

school curriculum did better than those who completed no higher then core curricula. This finding held even when controlling for socioeconomic background, college admission exam scores,

the type of college students first attended, how well they did in their first year, and other variables known to be associated with college persistence and degree attainment.

Before taking first-year college GPA into account, both high school curriculum and levels

of SAT scores were related to persistence. However, after GPA was taken into consideration,

high school curriculum remained a significant factor, while SAT scores did not. These findings

are consistent with Adelman’s (1999) research on determinants of degree attainment. His findings demonstrated that high school curriculum was a stronger predictor of bachelor’s degree attainment than standardized test scores or other measures of high school academic performance,

leading the author to conclude:
Summary and Conclusions

38

When academic intensity and quality of one’s high school curriculum is such a dominant

determinant of degree completion, and both test scores and (especially) high school grade

point average or class rank are so much weaker contributors to attainment, college admission

formulas that emphasize test scores and (especially) high school grade point average or class

rank are likely to result in lower degree completion rates. (Adelman 1999, p. ix)

In the current study, the benefit of a strong high school academic curriculum was particularly noteworthy for transfer students. Students who transfer from their initial 4-year college may

be struggling either academically or socially, and attempting to find a better fit in another institution. Among students who first enrolled in college in 1995–96, one-fifth had transferred as of

1998. For these students in particular, as their level of high school academic curriculum increased, so did their likelihood of staying on track to a bachelor’s degree (by transferring to another 4-year institution without a break in enrollment).

Taken together, the results suggest that completing a rigorous academic curriculum in high

school may help students overcome socioeconomic disadvantages such as low family income and

parents with no college experience, as well as helping those who, for whatever reason, decide to

transfer to another institution.
39

References

Adelman, C. (1999). Answers in the Toolbox: Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and

Bachelor’s Degree Attainment. U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Alexander, K.L., and Cook, M.A. (1978). Curriculum Tracking and Educational Stratification.

American Sociological Review, 43: 47–66.

Alexander, K.L., and Cook, M.A. (1982). Curricula and Coursework: A Surprise Ending to a

Familiar Story. American Sociological Review, 47: 626–640.

Alexander, K.L., Holupka, S., and Pallas, A.M. (1987). Social Background and Academic Determinants of Two-Year Versus Four-Year College Attendance: Evidence From Two Cohorts

a Decade Apeart. American Journal of Education, 96(1): 56–80.

Alexander, K.L., Riordan, C., Fennessey, J., and Pallas, A.M. (1982). Social Background, Academic Resources, and College Graduation: Recent Evidence From the National Longitudinal

Survey. American Journal of Education, 90(4): 315–333.

American College Testing Program. (2000). News Release: National College Dropout and

Graduation Rates, 1999. Available: http://www.act.org/news/releases/2000/02-16b00.html

[November 28, 2000].

Berkner, L.K., Cuccaro-Alamin, S., and McCormick, A.C. (1996). Descriptive Summary of

1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students: Five Years Later (NCES 96–155). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Burkam, D.T., Lee, V.E., and Smerdon, B.A. (1996). Mathematics Coursetaking and the

NELS:88 Transcript Data. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan.

Carroll, C.D. (1989). College Persistence and Degree Attainment for 1980 High School Graduates: Hazards for Transfers, Stopouts, and Part-Timers (NCES 89–302). U.S. Department of

Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government

Printing Office.
References

40

Marco, G., Abdel-Fattah, A., and Baron, P. (1992). Methods Used to Establish Score Comparability on the Enhanced ACT Assessment and the SAT. New York: College Entrance Examination Board.

McCormick, A.C. (1997). Transfer Behavior Among Beginning Postsecondary Students: 1989–

94 (NCES 97–266). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics.

Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

National Commission on Excellence in Education. (1983). A Nation at Risk: The Imperative for

Educational Reform. Washington, DC: Author.

Pascarella, E.T., and Terenzini, P.T. (1977). Patterns of Student-Faculty Informal Interaction Beyond the Classroom and Voluntary Freshman Attrition. Journal of Higher Education: 540–

552.

Pascarella, E.T., and Terenzini, P.T. (1991). How College Affects Students: Findings and Insights From Twenty Years of Research. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Tinto, V. (1993). Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes and Cures of Student Attrition (2nd

ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Warburton, E.C., Bugarin, R., and Nuñez, A.-M. (2001). Bridging the Gap: Academic Preparation and Postsecondary Success of First-Generation Students (NCES 2001–153). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S.

Government Printing Office.
41

Appendix A—Glossary

This glossary describes the variables used in this report. The items were taken directly from

the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study First Follow-up (BPS:96/98) Data

Analysis System (DAS), which is the NCES software application that generates tables from

BPS:96/98. A description of the DAS software can be found in appendix B. The variable names

are in capital letters and correspond to the names of the variables in the DAS. In the index below,

the variables in each section are listed in the order they appear in the report; the glossary is in alphabetical order by variable name (displayed in the right-hand column).

GLOSSARY INDEX

DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS

Gender ...................................................... SBGENDER

Race/ethnicity .............................................SBRACECI

Parents’ highest education .............................PBEDHI3

Family income in 1994 ....................................SFPOV3

Age first enrolled in postsecondary

 education.....................................................SBAGEFM

HIGH SCHOOL VARIABLES

Academic curriculum................................... CTAKING

Average SAT I (or equivalent ACT)

 composite score ........................................TESATDER

Percentage eligible for free or reduced-

 price lunch ................................................HSLUNCH2

POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTIONS AND EXPERIENCES

Type of initial institution............................. ITCARCT3

Type of transfer destination institution ....... ITCARCT4

Employment status when first

 enrolled .......................................................... J1HOUR

First-year grade-point average (GPA)...........SEGPAY1

First reported reason for transferring ........... RTFIRSB1

REMEDIAL COURSES

Any remedial courses .....................................REMED2

English language ............................................. SILANG

Math ............................................................... SIMATH

Reading............................................................ SIREAD

Study Skills.......................................................SISTUD

Writing ...........................................................SISWRIT

ACADEMIC ACTIVITIES IN FIRST YEAR OF COLLEGE

Attend study group outside of class.......... CMSTUDGP

Meet with advisor about plans.......................CMMEET

Talk with faculty outside of class ..................CMTALK

POSTSECONDARY PERSISTENCE

Persistence at first institution.............................PRSIB1

Persistence track to bachelor’s degree........ PRFLTYB1
Appendix A—Glossary

42

Meet with advisor about plans CMMEET

Response to question: “Please tell me how often you participated in the activity. Talk with faculty about academic

matters outside of class time (never, sometimes, often)”? For this analysis, only those who responded “often” were

identified.

Talk with faculty outside of class CMTALK

Response to question: “Please tell me how often you participated in the activity. Meet with advisor concerning academic plans (never, sometimes, often)”? For this analysis, only those who responded “often” were identified.

Attend study group outside of class CMSTUDGP

Response to question: “Please tell me how often you participated in the activity. Attend study groups outside of the

classroom (never, sometimes, often)”? For this analysis, only those who responded “often” were identified.

High school academic curriculum CTAKING

Academic curriculum based on courses reported taken or planned to take by respondents when they applied to take

the SAT I or ACT Assessment. There were approximately 22 percent of 4-year students with missing data for the

curriculum variable either because of missing course-taking data items or because they did not take the SAT exam in

the time period for which the data were collected. Missing cases were more likely to be older, independent students

who might have taken the SAT exams much earlier.

Core curriculum or lower Completed no more than 4 years of English, 3 years each

of social science, mathematics, science.

Mid-level I 4 years of English; 1 year of a foreign language; 3 years

each of mathematics and science including two of the

following science courses: biology, chemistry, and physics.

Mid-level II 4 years of English; 2 years of a foreign language; 3 years

each of mathematics (including Algebra II) and science

(including biology, chemistry, and physics) .

Rigorous 4 years of each English and mathematics (including precalculus or higher); 3 years each of a foreign language,

science (including biology, chemistry, and physics), social

science; one AP or honors class or AP test score in any

subject.

For this analysis, the middle two groups were combined into one mid-level category.
Appendix A—Glossary

43

Percentage eligible for free or reduced-price lunch HSLUNCH2

Indicates the percentage of respondents’ high school student body eligible for free or reduced-price lunches if they

graduated from a public school. If student graduated from a private high school, it was assumed that no students were

eligible for free or reduced-price lunch.

0 to 4 percent Up to 4 percent eligible for free or reduced-price lunch in

public school (includes all private schools).

5 to 24 percent 5 to 24 percent eligible for free or reduced-price lunch

25 percent or more 25 percent of more eligible for free or reduced-price

lunch.

Type of initial institution ITCARCT3

Identifies the first institution attended by respondent, by selectivity within control and 1994 Carnegie classification.

The Carnegie classification system includes all colleges and universities in the United States that are degree granting

and accredited by an agency recognized by the U.S. Secretary of Education. In this study, selective institutions were

identified as Carnegie classifications in which the average SAT scores of beginning students exceeded 1000 or in

which a majority of students were enrolled in very selective institutions (institutions in which 75 percent of students

scored 1000 or higher on the SAT exam as identified in the Common Data Set12). The classifications differ for public and private not-for-profit institutions (see table below for details).

Public selective Institutions classified as Research University I and II, and

Baccalaureate I

Public less-selective All other public 4-year institutions

Private not-for-profit selective Research University I and II, Doctoral University I and II,

and Baccalaureate I

Private not-for-profit less-selective All other private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

 

12The Common Data Set is an institutional data collection sponsored by a collaboration of The College Board, Peterson’s, U.S.

News & World Report, and Wintergreen/Orchard House. Fall 1997 rather than fall 1996 data were used because more institutions

participated and provided more complete responses in the latter year. Although there is a 2-year interval between the college

entry of BPS:96/98 freshmen and fall 1997 institutional data, any change in an institution’s admission test score distribution

would have been unlikely to have affected its selectivity classification for this study.
Appendix A—Glossary

44

Carnegie Classifications meeting selective criteria* (in bold)

 Derived SAT Derived SAT

combined score for Percent of students combined score for Percent of students

full-time 4-year in very selective full-time 4-year in very selective

students institutions students institutions

 Total 937 23.6 986 33.1

Carnegie classification

 Research I and II 1,025 49.3 Research I and II 1,154 92.1 

 Doctoral I 935 13.5 Doctoral I 1,022 59.7 

 Doctoral II 871 13.3 Doctoral II 1,042 65.1 

 Comprehensive 854 1.7 Comprehensive 930 18.1 

 Baccalaureate I 995 100.0 Baccalaureate I 1,094 47.3 

 Baccalaureate II 834 0.0 Baccalaureate II 848 0.0 

 All others 803 0.0 All others 873 0.0 

*Average SAT score of beginning students was over 1000 or a majority of students were enrolled in very selective institutions (25th

percentile of SAT score 1000 or higher).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).

Public institutions Private not-for-profit institutions

Type of transfer destination institution ITCARCT4

Identifies the second institution attended by respondents who transferred, by control and Carnegie Classification. See

ITCARCT3 (above) for classification of 4-year transfer institutions. In addition, a fifth category was added for lessthan-4-year institutions (such as community colleges or trade schools) and for-profit 4-year institutions.

Employment status when first enrolled J1HOUR

Indicates the number of hours worked while enrolled in 1995–96.

Did not work while enrolled

Worked part time Worked less than 35 hours

Worked full time Worked 35 or more hours

Parents’ highest education PBEDHI3

Indicates the highest education level attained by either parent of the respondent.

High school or lower Parent had less than a high school education or a high school

diploma.

Some college Parent went to trade school, had less than 2 years of college, or

had 2 or more years of college.
Appendix A—Glossary

45

Bachelor’s or advanced degree Parent earned a bachelor’s degree or postgraduate/professional

degree.

Persistence track to bachelor’s degree PRFLTYB1

Identifies the type of first departure from the persistence track. Responses were categorized as follows:

Did not leave track Respondents stayed continuously enrolled in any 4-year institution through 1998.

Left track, still enrolled Respondents left persistence track by a break in enrollment of

more than 4 months (stopout), or transferring to a less-than-4-

year institution.

Left without return Respondents left without return to postsecondary education.

Persistence at first institution PRSIB1

Identifies the outcome of the first spell of continuous enrollment at the first institution. For those who attained a degree prior to the spell end, the variable identifies the degree attained. For those who did not attain prior to the spell

end, the variable distinguishes whether the student was still enrolled at the first institution in Spring 1998, experienced a stopout and returned to the institution, experienced a stopout and enrolled at new institution, experienced an

immediate transfer to a new institution, or left postsecondary education without return at the end of the spell. Responses were grouped as follows:

Continuous enrollment, no transfer, attained BA

Continuous enrollment as of 1998

No degree, stopout, returned to institution (stopout return)

No degree, stopout, enroll at new institution (stopout transfer)

No degree, continuous enrollment, enrolled at new institution (continuous transfer)

No degree, left without return

For the multivariate analysis, the first two categories of continuous enrollment were used as the dependent variable

indicating persistence at the first institution. In some cases the two transfer groups (stopout transfer and continuous

transfer) were combined.

Any remedial courses REMED2

Indicates whether student reported taking any remedial or developmental course in language, math, reading, or writing in 1995–96. NOTE: Does not include courses in study skills.

First reported reason for transferring RTFIRSB1

Indicates the first reason for transfer based on the interview question: Why did you decide to leave the [sampled]

institution? Reasons were coded as follows:

Academic problems/reasons Includes academic problems; transfer school is less competitive; school/program closed/lost accreditation; completed the desired class.
Appendix A—Glossary

46

Class schedule/ not satisfied Student reported that classes were not available, had

scheduling problems, or was not satisfied with program/institution.

Changed degree program/major/field Student reported he/she either changed major or degree

program.

Financial reasons Student reported any financial reasons for transferring.

Location or home demands Respondent moved from the area and or reported

other/personal reasons which include: conflicts with

job/military; change in family status (e.g., marriage); conflicts with demands at home.

Other reasons or none Any reason other than those listed above or no reported

reason for transferring.

Gender SBGENDER

Male

Female

Race/ethnicity SBRACECI

Indicates the race/ethnicity of respondents who were U.S. citizens and permanent residents. Racial/ethnic groups

were defined as follows:

White, non-Hispanic Respondent has origins in any of the original peoples of

Europe, North Africa, or the Middle East (except those of

Hispanic origin).

Black, non-Hispanic Respondent has origins in any of the black racial groups

of Africa, not of Hispanic origin.

Hispanic Respondent is Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central or

South American, or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race.

Asian/Pacific Islander Respondent has origins in any of the original peoples of

the Far East, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, or

Pacific Islands. This includes people from China, Japan,

Korea, the Philippine Islands, Samoa, India, and Vietnam.

American Indian/Alaskan Native Respondent has origins in any of the original peoples of

North America and who maintains cultural identification

through tribal affiliation or community recognition.
Appendix A—Glossary

47

Age first enrolled in postsecondary education SBAGEFM

Indicates the respondent’s age when first enrolled at 1995–96 postsecondary institution. Age was defined in the following categories:

18 years or younger

19 or older

First-year grade-point average (GPA) SEGPAY1

Indicates the average student GPA (standardized to a 4.00 point scale) as reported by the institution. Scores were

grouped as follows:

Lowest quartile Less than 2.10

Middle quartiles 2.11–3.26

Highest quartile 3.27–4.00

In some cases, the average GPA was reported.

English language SILANG

Students who indicated that they took any remedial or developmental courses in 1995–96 were asked if specific

courses were in the following:

Reading (SIREAD)

Writing (SIWRIT)

Math (SIMATH)

Study Skills (SISTUD)

English language skills (SILANG)

This variable indicates whether student took a remedial course in English.

Math SIMATH

Indicates whether student took a remedial course in math. For more detailed information, see SILANG.

Reading SIREAD

Indicates whether student took a remedial course in reading. For more detailed information, see SILANG.

Study skills SISTUD

Indicates whether student took a remedial course in study skills. For more detailed information, see SILANG.

Writing SISWRIT

Indicates whether student took a remedial course in writing. For more detailed information, see SILANG.
Appendix A—Glossary

48

Family income in 1994 SFPOV3

Total 1994 income as a percentage of the federal poverty level thresholds for 1994. Based on family size, total income, and dependency. Refers to the family of the parents of dependent students and the student’s own family if independent.

Low income Below 125 percent of poverty level

Middle income 125 to 634 percent above poverty level

High income 635 percent or more above poverty level

Average SAT I (or equivalent ACT) composite score TESATDER

Indicates respondent’s derived SAT I original scale combined score as either the sum of SAT I verbal and math

scores or the ACT Assessment composite score converted to an estimated SAT I combined score. Scores were combined as follows:

Lowest quartile 400–790

Middle quartiles 800–1090

Highest quartile 1100 or above
49

Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

The Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98)

The Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS) is composed of the students who participated in the 1995–96 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:96)

who enrolled in postsecondary education for the first time in 1995–96. The National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) is a comprehensive nationwide study conducted by the U.S.

Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to determine how

students and their families pay for postsecondary education.13 It also describes demographic and

other characteristics of students enrolled. The study is based on a nationally representative sample of all students in postsecondary education institutions, including undergraduate, graduate, and

first-professional students. For NPSAS:96, information was obtained from more than 830 postsecondary institutions on approximately 44,500 undergraduate, 8,700 graduate, and 2,500 firstprofessional students. They represented about 16.7 million undergraduates, 2.4 million graduate

students, and 300,000 first-professional students who were enrolled at some time between July 1,

1995 and June 30, 1996.

The BPS sample consists of approximately 12,000 students identified in NPSAS:96 who

were beginning postsecondary education for the first time. The first follow-up of the BPS cohort

(BPS:96/98) occurred in the spring and summer of 1998, approximately 3 years after they first

enrolled. Approximately 10,300 of the students who first began in 1995–96 were located and interviewed in the first follow-up. The weighted effective response rate for potential members of

the BPS cohort in the NPSAS:96 base year was 77.6 percent. The weighted effective response

rate in the 1998 follow-up of the NPSAS:96 respondents was 85.9 percent. The overall weighted

response rate (including those who were nonrespondents in NPSAS:96) for the BPS:96/98 first

follow-up was 79.8 percent.14

 

13For more information on the NPSAS survey, consult U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics,

Methodology Report for the 1995–96 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NCES 98–073) (Washington, DC: 1997). Additional information is also available at the NPSAS website http://nces.ed.gov/npsas.

14For more information on the BPS:96/98 survey, consult U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study First Follow-up 1996–98, Methodology Report (NCES 2000–157)

(Washington, DC: 2000).
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

50

The BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System includes a sample weight for longitudinal analysis of

the data through 1998 (B98AWT). All the estimates in this report are based on this weight.

Accuracy of Estimates

The statistics in this report are estimates derived from a sample. Two broad categories of

error occur in such estimates: sampling and nonsampling errors. Sampling errors occur because

observations are made only on samples of students, not entire populations. Nonsampling errors

occur not only in sample surveys but also in complete censuses of entire populations. Nonsampling errors can be attributed to a number of sources: inability to obtain complete information

about all students in all institutions in the sample (some students or institutions refused to participate, or students participated but answered only certain items); ambiguous definitions; differences in interpreting questions; inability or unwillingness to give correct information; mistakes in

recording or coding data; and other errors of collecting, processing, sampling, and imputing

missing data.

Data Analysis System

The estimates presented in this report were produced using the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis

Systems (DAS). The DAS software makes it possible for users to specify and generate their own

tables. With the DAS, users can replicate or expand upon the tables presented in this report. In

addition to the table estimates, the DAS calculates proper standard errors15 and weighted sample

sizes for these estimates. For example, table B1 contains standard errors that correspond to table

1, generated by the DAS. If the number of valid cases is too small to produce a reliable estimate

(less than 30 cases), the DAS prints the message “low-N” instead of the estimate.

In addition to tables, the DAS will also produce a correlation matrix of selected variables to

be used for linear regression models. Included in the output with the correlation matrix are the

design effects (DEFTs) for each variable in the matrix. Since statistical procedures generally

compute regression coefficients based on simple random sample assumptions, the standard errors

must be adjusted with the design effects to take into account the stratified sampling method used

in the NPSAS and BPS surveys.

 

15The NPSAS:96 samples are not simple random samples, and therefore, simple random sample techniques for estimating sampling error cannot be applied to these data. The DAS takes into account the complexity of the sampling procedures and calculates

standard errors appropriate for such samples. The method for computing sampling errors used by the DAS involves approximating the estimator by the linear terms of a Taylor series expansion. The procedure is typically referred to as the Taylor series

method.
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

51

Table B1.—Standard errors for table 1: Percentage distribution of high school academic curricula among

Table B1.—1995–96 beginning students in 4-year institutions, by selected student background and high

Table B1.—school characteristics

Core curriculum

or less1 Mid-level2 Rigorous3

 Total 0.97 1.06 0.84

Gender

 Male 1.56 1.68 1.38

 Female 1.21 1.36 1.00

Race/ethnicity

 Asian/Pacific Islander 3.52 4.23 3.57

 Hispanic 3.15 3.53 2.74

 Black, non-Hispanic 3.04 3.07 1.39

 White, non-Hispanic 1.08 1.23 1.00

 American Indian/Alaskan Native ———

Age during first month enrolled

 18 years or younger 1.02 1.12 0.85

 19–24 years 3.02 3.01 2.75

Family income in 1994

 Low income 2.66 2.66 1.80

 Middle income 1.09 1.20 0.91

 High income 2.92 3.17 2.79

Parents’ highest education

 High school or less 1.99 2.05 1.00

 Some college 2.16 2.30 1.52

 Bachelor’s degree or higher 1.34 1.55 1.32

Derived SAT combined score

 Lowest quartile (400–790) 1.97 1.97 0.50

 Middle quartiles (800–1090) 1.39 1.53 1.19

 Highest quartile (1100–1600) 1.71 2.17 2.04

Free or reduced-price lunch eligibility at high school

 0–4 percent 1.74 2.03 2.00

 5–24 percent 1.59 1.70 1.12

 25 percent or higher 2.83 2.94 1.78

—Sample size too small for a reliable estimate. 1

Core curriculum includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of mathematics, and 3 years of science.

2

Mid-level curriculum exceeds core curriculum, but is less than rigorous. Includes at a minimum 1 year of a foreign language, 

geometry, algebra I, and 3 years of science including two of the following courses: biology, chemistry, or physics.

3

Rigorous curriculum includes 4 years of English, 4 years of mathematics (including precalculus or higher), 3 years of a foreign

language, 3 years of social studies, 3 years of science (including biology, chemistry, physics), and at least one advanced 

placement (AP) class or test taken.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:96/98).
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

52

For more information about the BPS:96/98, and other Data Analysis Systems, consult the

NCES DAS website (www.nces.ed.gov/das) or its West Coast mirror site (www.pedar-das.org),

or contact:

Aurora D’Amico

National Center for Education Statistics

1990 K Street, NW

Room 8115

Washington, DC 20006

(202) 502-7334

Internet address: Aurora.D’Amico@ed.gov

Statistical Procedures

Three types of statistical procedures were employed in this report: testing differences between means (or proportions), testing linear trends, and adjustment of means after controlling for

covariation among several variables. Each procedure is described below.

Differences Between Means

The descriptive comparisons were tested in this report using Student’s t statistic. Differences between estimates are tested against the probability of a Type I error,16 or significance

level. The significance levels were determined by calculating the Student’s t values for the differences between each pair of means or proportions and comparing these with published tables of

significance levels for two-tailed hypothesis testing.

Student’s t values may be computed to test the difference between estimates with the following formula:

2

2

2

1

21

sese

EE

t

+

− = (1)

where E1 and E2 are the estimates to be compared and se1 and se2 are their corresponding standard errors. This formula is valid only for independent estimates. When estimates are not independent, a covariance term must be added to the formula:

 

16A Type I error occurs when one concludes that a difference observed in a sample reflects a true difference in the population

from which the sample was drawn, when no such difference is present.
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

53

E -E

se + se - 2(r)se se

1 2

1

2

2

2

1 2

 (2)

where r is the correlation between the two estimates.17 This formula is used when comparing two

percentages from a distribution that adds to 100. If the comparison is between the mean of a subgroup and the mean of the total group, the following formula is used:

2

sub

2

tot

2

sub

sub tot

se se 2p se

E E

+ −

− (3)

where p is the proportion of the total group contained in the subgroup.18 The estimates, standard

errors, and correlations can all be obtained from the DAS.

There are hazards in reporting statistical tests for each comparison. First, comparisons

based on large t statistics may appear to merit special attention. This can be misleading since the

magnitude of the t statistic is related not only to the observed differences in means or percentages

but also to the number of students in the specific categories used for comparison. Hence, a small

difference compared across a large number of students would produce a large t statistic.

A second hazard in reporting statistical tests for each comparison occurs when making

multiple comparisons among categories of an independent variable. For example, when making

paired comparisons among different levels of income, the probability of a Type I error for these

comparisons taken as a group is larger than the probability for a single comparison. When more

than one difference between groups of related characteristics or “families” are tested for statistical significance, one must apply a standard that assures a level of significance for all of those

comparisons taken together.

Comparisons were made in this report only when p< .05/k for a particular pairwise comparison, where that comparison was one of k tests within a family. This guarantees both that the

individual comparison would have p< .05 and that for k comparisons within a family of possible

comparisons, the significance level for all the comparisons will sum to p< .05.19

 

17U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, A Note from the Chief Statistician, no. 2, 1993.

18Ibid.

19The standard that p≤ .05/k for each comparison is more stringent than the criterion that the significance level of the comparisons should sum to p≤ .05. For tables showing the t statistic required to ensure that p≤ .05/k for a particular family size and degrees of freedom, see Olive Jean Dunn, “Multiple Comparisons Among Means,” Journal of the American Statistical Association

56 (1961): 52–64.
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

54

For example, in a comparison of males and females, only one comparison is possible

(males versus females). In this family, k=1, and the comparison can be evaluated without adjusting the significance level. When students are divided into five racial/ethnic groups and all possible comparisons are made, then k=10 and the significance level of each test must be p< .05/10, or

p< .005. The formula for calculating family size (k) is as follows:

k j j = ( ) −1

2 (4)

where j is the number of categories for the variable being tested. In the case of race/ethnicity,

there are five racial/ethnic groups (American Indian/Alaskan Native; Asian/Pacific Islander;

Black, non-Hispanic; Hispanic; and White, non-Hispanic), so substituting 5 for j in equation 4,

k = 5(5 -1)

2

=10

Linear Trends

While many descriptive comparisons in this report were tested using Student’s t statistic,

some comparisons among categories of an ordered variable with three or more levels involved a

test for a linear trend across all categories, rather than a series of tests between pairs of categories. In this report, when differences among percentages were examined relative to a variable

with ordered categories, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to test for a linear relationship

between the two variables. To do this, ANOVA models included orthogonal linear contrasts corresponding to successive levels of the independent variable. The squares of the Taylorized standard errors (that is, standard errors that were calculated by the Taylor series method), the

variance between the means, and the unweighted sample sizes were used to partition total sum of

squares into within- and between-group sums of squares. These were used to create mean squares

for the within- and between-group variance components and their corresponding F statistics,

which were then compared with published values of F for a significance level of .05.20 Significant values of both the overall F and the F associated with the linear contrast term were required

as evidence of a linear relationship between the two variables. Means and Taylorized standard

errors were calculated by the DAS. Unweighted sample sizes are not available from the DAS and

were provided by NCES.

 

20More information about ANOVA and significance testing using the F statistic can be found in any standard textbook on statistical methods in the social and behavioral sciences.
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

55

Adjustment of Means to Control for Covariation

Many of the independent variables included in the analyses in this report are related, and to

some extent the pattern of differences found in the descriptive analyses reflect this covariation.

For example, when examining the percentages of those who were still enrolled or who had completed a degree at their initial institution 3 years after beginning postsecondary education, it is

possible that some of the observed relationship with high school academic curriculum is due to

differences in other factors related to academic preparation, such as college admission test scores,

type of institution attended, and so on. However, if nested tables were used to isolate the influence of these other factors, cell sizes would become too small to identify the significant differences in patterns. When the sample size becomes too small to support controls for another level

of variation, one must use other methods to take such variation into account. The method used in

this report estimates adjusted means with regression models, an approach sometimes referred to

as communality analysis.

To obtain estimates that were adjusted for the covariation among the entire set of independent variables identified as significant in the descriptive analyses, a multiple linear regression21

was used to regress the dependent variable on the full set of independent variables. Each independent variable is divided into several discrete categories. To find an estimated mean value on

the dependent variable for each category of an independent variable, while adjusting for its covariation with other independent variables in the equation, substitute the following in the equation: (1) a one in the category’s term in the equation, (2) zeroes for the other categories of this

variable, and (3) the mean proportions for all other independent variables. This procedure holds

the impact of all remaining independent variables constant, and differences between adjusted

means of categories of an independent variable represent hypothetical groups that are balanced or

proportionately equal on all other characteristics included in the model as independent variables.

For example, consider a hypothetical case in which two variables, attendance status and

gender, are used to describe an outcome, Y (remaining enrolled at the first institution). The variables attendance status and gender are recoded into a dummy variable representing attendance

status, A, and a dummy variable representing gender, G:

 

21For more information about weighted least squares regression, see Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Applied Regression: An Introduction, Vol. 22 (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 1980); William D. Berry and Stanley Feldman, Multiple Regression in

Practice, Vol. 50 (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, Inc. 1987).
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

56

Attendance status A

Full time 1

Part time 0

and

Gender G

Female 1

Male 0

The following regression equation is then estimated using the correlation matrix output from the

DAS as input data for any standard regression procedures:

ˆ

Y = a + b1A+ b2G (5)

To estimate the adjusted mean for any subgroup evaluated at the mean of all other variables, one substitutes the appropriate values for that subgroup’s dummy variables (1 or 0) and the

mean for the dummy variable(s) representing all other subgroups. For example, suppose Y represents remaining enrolled, and is being described by attendance status (A) and gender (G), coded

as shown above, with means as follows:

Variable Mean

A 0.90

G 0.55

To estimate the adjusted value for women, one substitutes the appropriate parameter estimates (obtained from standard regression procedures) and variable values (obtained from the

DAS output) into equation 5.

Variable Parameter Value

a 0.392 —

A 0.227 0.900

G 0.017 1.000

This results in:

0.392 (0.017)(1) (.227)(0.90) 0.613 Yˆ = + + =

In this case, the adjusted mean for women is 0.613 and represents the expected outcome for

women who resemble the average student across the other variables (in this example, attendance
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

57

status). In other words, the adjusted percentage of women remaining enrolled at their first institution after holding attendance status constant is 61.3 percent (0.613 x 100 for conversion to a

percentage).

It is relatively straightforward to produce a multivariate model using the DAS, since one of

the DAS output options is a correlation matrix, computed using pairwise missing values. In regression analysis, there are several common approaches to the problem of missing data. The two

simplest are pairwise deletion of missing data and listwise deletion of missing data. In pairwise

deletion, each correlation is calculated using all of the cases for the two relevant variables. For

example, suppose you have a regression analysis that uses variables X1, X2, and X3. The regression is based on the correlation matrix between X1, X2 and X3. In pairwise deletion the correlation between X1 and X2 is based on the nonmissing cases for X1 and X2. Cases missing on

either X1 or X2 would be excluded from the calculation of the correlation. In listwise deletion

the correlation between X1 and X2 would be based on the nonmissing values for X1, X2, and

X3. That is, all of the cases with missing data on any of the three variables would be excluded

from the analysis.22

The correlation matrix can be used by most statistical software packages as the input data

for least squares regression. That is the approach used for this report, with an additional adjustment to incorporate the complex sample design into the statistical significance tests of the parameter estimates. Most statistical software packages assume simple random sampling when

computing standard errors of parameter estimates. Because of the complex sampling design used

for the BPS survey, this assumption is incorrect. A better approximation of their standard errors

is to multiply each standard error by the design effect associated with the dependent variable

(DEFT),23 where the DEFT is the ratio of the true standard error to the standard error computed

under the assumption of simple random sampling. It is calculated by the DAS and output with the

correlation matrix.

 

22Although the DAS simplifies the process of making regression models, it also limits the range of models. Analysts who wish to

estimate probit/logit models (which are the most appropriate for models with categorical dependent variables) can apply for a

restricted data license from NCES. See John H. Aldrich and Forrest D. Nelson, Linear Probability, Logit and Probit Models

(Quantitative Applications in Social Sciences, Vol. 45) (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1984).

23The adjustment procedure and its limitations are described in C.J. Skinner, D. Holt, and T.M.F. Smith, eds., Analysis of Complex Surveys (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1989).