# STATE OF CONNECTICUT DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

October 14, 2009 David Conroy, Air Branch Chief United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1 One Congress Street, Suite 1100 Boston, MA 02114-2023 Re: 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration Revised RFPCalculations Including Banked Emission Reduction Credits Dear Mr . Conroy: On February 1, 2008, the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection (CTDEP) submitted an attainment demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. In June of 2009, while reviewing that submittal, EPARegion 1 staff requested that CTDEP determine if emission estimates used to demonstrate reasonable further progress (RFP) incorporated the effects of banked emission reduction credits (ERC's) that were applicable during the RFPperiod (i .e., 2002 through 2008) . After consulting with your technical staff and reviewing our records, CTDEP has determined that a small number of nitrogen oxides (NOx) ERC's are not accounted for in the RFP calculations . When NOx emission calculations are revised to include the ERC's, RFPcontinues to be easily demonstrated. The attached figures illustrate that inclusion of ERC's (Figure 1) has only minor impacts on the RFP calculations compared to the original RFP calculations (Figure 2) included with the February 2008 ozone attainment demonstration submittal . Thus, CTDEP's conclusion in the attainment demonstration that control programs provide for compliance with all reasonable further progress requirements remains valid. The enclosed technical analysis provides more detailed documentation of the impact that ERC's have on the RFP demonstration. CTDEPwill ensure that ERC's are appropriately considered in future revisions to the State Implementation Plan. We are reviewing our trading policy and anticipate amendments in orders extended beyond May 2010 . Please contact Paul Bodner at (860) 424-3383 with any questions regarding this information. Sincerely, QX"-X 

# I-A . ' Anne Gobin, Chief Bureau of Air Management Attachment Enclosure (Printed on Recycled Paper) 79 Elm Street 9 Hartford, CT 06106-5127 www .ct.gov/dep An Equal Opportunity Employer

# Connecticut's 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration

Revised Reasonable Further Progress Calculations to Account for Banked NOx Emission Reduction Credits

October 2009

### Summary

On February 1, 2008, the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection (CTDEP) submitted an attainment demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. In June of2009, while reviewing that submittal, EPARegion 1 staff requested that CTDEPdetermine if emission estimates used to demonstrate reasonable further progress (RFP) incorporated the effects of banked emission reduction credits (ERC's) that were applicable during the RFP period (i .e., 2002 through 2008) . After consulting with EPA technical staff and reviewing internal records, CTDEPhas determined that a small number of banked ERC's are not accounted for in the RFP calculations. When emission calculations are revised to include the ERC's, RFPcontinues to be easily demonstrated with a large surplus of emission reductions that are more than sufficient to also satisfy RFPcontingency requirements
. The attached figures illustrate on a statewide basis that inclusion of ERC's (Figure 1) has only minor impacts on the RFP calculations compared to the original RFP calculations (Figure 2) included with the February 2008 ozone attainment demonstration submittal . Thus, CTDEP's conclusion in the attainment demonstrationthat control programs provide for compliance with all reasonable further progress requirements remains valid. The following discussion and tables provide more detailed documentation on the impact that banked ERC's have on the revised RFPdemonstration for each of Connecticut's nonattainment areas. ReviewofWP Req

uirements EPA's Phase 2 Ozone Implementation Rulel requires moderate 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas (such as Greater Connecticut and Southwest Connecticut) to provide a demonstration of at least a 15%

emission reduction between 2002 and 2008. The 15%reduction requirement can be satisfied with any combination of VOCand NOxreductions (e.g., 10% VOCand 5%

NOx reductions) . In order to demonstrate RFP, aregion must show that its projected emissions, including growth and controls, of NOXand VOCwill not exceed calculated "target levels" set for the end of the RFP period at levels that produce the required 15%reduction. For the 2002- 2008 RFPperiod, the "target levels" of emissions are the maximum quantity of anthropogenic emissions permissible during the 2008 projection year. Determination of Applicable ERC's CTDEP's regulations and policies recognize two types of NOx ERC's, discrete emission reduction credits (DERC's) and continuous emission reduction credits (CERC's) . DERCs have a defined lifetime of five years, so any DERC's that existed in the base year of 2002 or earlier would have expired by the end of the RFP period in 2008. Therefore, DERC's need not be considered in this analysis. CERC's initiated prior to or during the 2002 base year do need to be incorporated into the RFP recalculations because the associated credit streamextends indefinitely. CERC's initiated after the 2002 base year do not need to be considered because 170 FR71612

.

# Figure 1 : Estimated Connecticut NOx Emissions

Compared to 2008 RFPStatewide Target Level Accounting for Unused ERC's

-- TQrat.,=,U4A_ RFPTarget = 297.9



# Figure 2 : Estimated Connecticut NOx Emissions Compared to 2008 RFP Statewide Target Level NotAccounting for Unused ERC's Actual Projected 2002 2008

400 .0 .; .. r 

### 350.0 'a 300.0 d 

### E
c


### E W 

### 250.0 

# .~~.,~ . . . Total = 249.7

Total = 247.5 Oct 2009 Revisions to RFP Csicuiations



### a Unused NOx ERC's " Point NOx 

### 0Area NOx N Non-Road NOx ~` On-Road NOx

Feb 2008Ozone Attainment SIP RFPCaicuiations



### rr Point NOx Area NOx 0Non-Road NOx m, On-Road NOx



### Actual Projected 2002 2008

### growth factors used to project 2002 emissions to 2008 inherently account for new and shutdown sources that occur during that time period. Table 1 provides a summary of pre-2002 base year NOx CERC's to be accounted for in the RFP recalculations. For the Southwest Connecticut area (Fairfield, New Haven and Middlesex Counties), it was determined that 770 tons/year (2.1 tons/day) of CERCs must be added to both the 2002 base year and the 2008 projected inventories2. For the Greater Connecticut area (the remainder of Connecticut), 195 tons/year (0.53 tons/day) must be incorporated into the 2002 base year inventory and 45 tons/year (0.12 tons/day) into the 2008 projected inventory3. Revised RFP Demonstration Inclusion ofthe identified ERC's into the RFPdemonstration involves calculation updates to both the 15%

emission reduction target levels and future year projected emission levels. Revised target calculations for the Greater Connecticut (GrCT) and Southwest Connecticut (SWCT) areas are summarized in Tables 2 and 3, respectively. Revised projected emissions for 2008, 2009 and 2012 are provided in Table 4 . Complete descriptions of the calculation methodologies used for determining target levels and projected emissions are provided in the CTDEP's ozone attainment demonstration submittal4 Inclusion of applicable ERC's has only minor impacts on the RFP calculations.s Total 2002 base year anthropogenic NOx emissions increase from 145.5 to 146 .0 tons/day for GrCT and from 186 .3 to 188 .4 tons/day for SWCT. NOx target levels increase from129.5 to 130 .0 tons/day for GrCT and from165.9 to 167.9 tons/day for SWCT. Projected 2008 NOx emissions increase fro ~ 129 .5 to 130 .0 tons/day for GrCT and from 165.9 to 167.9 tons/day for SWCT. « i 

### As depicted in Table 4, the revised projections for 2008 remain significantly below the revised 2008 target levels that represent compliance with RFPrequirements. Furthermore, surplus /^ac.w ~ ~ . ~ 

### reductions are more than sufficient to satisfy the 3%of base year RFP contingency requirement . ~~ Thus, CTDEP's conclusion that control measures in the 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration achieve sufficient emission reductions to meet all RFP requirements remains valid. z As indicated in the Notes column ofTable 1, of the 770tons/year ofCERC's to be addedto the 2002 inventory for Southwest Connecticut, 377.79 tons/year are included as offsets in permits for facilities that were not yet operating in 2008 and 392 tons/year are currently being banked for potential future use. 3 As indicated in the Notes column ofTable 1, of the 195 tons/year ofCERC's to be addedto the 2002 inventory for Greater Connecticut, 150tons/year were transferred for use by a Rhode Island facility and 45 tons/year are currently being banked for potential future use. 4 The inclusion of CERC's only impacts calculations for NOx, notVOC . Procedures for developing target emission levels and 2008 projected emission levels are described in detail in Sections 5.2 and 4.3, respectively of the 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration, submitted to EPA on February 1, 2008 (see: http://www

.ct.gov/dep/cwp/view

.asp?a=2684&q=385886&depNav GID1619 . 5 Previous 2002 base year emission levels, target emission levels, and 2008projected emission levels are presented in Tables 5.2.1 and 5.2 .2, Tables 5.2.5 and 5.2.6, and Tables 5.3.1 and 5.3 .2, respectively ofthe 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration, submitted to EPAon February 1, 2008 (see: http://www

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### Table 4 : Comparison of 2008 Projected Emissions to Target Levels Summary of Greater Connecticut's Projected Emission Trends 2002 -2012 (tons / summer aay) 2002 2008 2009 20 12 Greater Connecticut VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC NOx 

### Stationary Point 4.6 19 .6 4.6 18

.9 4.6 18

.0 4.6 18

.2 Stationary Area 75.5 6.4 69.5 6.5 61 .6 5.6 61 .0 5 .7 On-Road Mobile 45.1 89.3 28.5 54.3 26.3 49.2 19.8 34.8 Non-Road Mobile 56.2 30.8 46.7 27.4 45.2 26.4 42.3 23.3 Total Anthropogen ic 181 .4 146 .1 149

.3 107

.1 137.8 99

.2 127.7 82.0 2008 RFPTarget Emission Level : 159.4 130 .0 (RFP Demonstrated) 

### Summary of Southwest Connecticut's Projected Emission Trends 2002 -2012 (tons / summer aay) 

## 2002 2008 2009 2012 Southvvest Connecticut VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC NOx 

### Stationary Point 11 .3 39 .8 11 .8 40

.4 11 .8 37

.7 12.1 38

.0 Stationary Area 84.1 7.2 76.6 7.4 69.4 6.6 68.6 6.7 On-Road Mobile 48.3 102.7 29.7 60.5 27.4 54.6 20.6 38.2 Non-Road Mobile 66.0 38.7 49.5 34.3 47.6 33.0 44.5 29.2 Total Anthropogenic 209 .7 188

.4 167.6 142.6 156 .2 131 .9 145.8 112 .1 2008 RFPTarget Emission Level : 184.6 167 .9 (RFP Demonstrated)
Note: Values in red/italics reflect updates to account for unused CERCs.N

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# Figure 1 : Estimated Connecticut NOx Emissions

Compared to 2008 RFPStatewide Target Level Accounting for Unused ERC's

Actual Projected 

## 2002 2008

a

N c 

## E c

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# Figure 2

: Estimated Connecticut NOx Emissions Compared to 2008 RFP StatewideTarget Level Not Accounting for Unused ERC's
R_- 250.0 r200.0 150.0 

### RFPTarget = 297' .9

_... ..~~~, . ., .~. .~ Total = 249

.7

caL._=....2,_47.5

.---._._ ...__ ...__. ... .._..~



## 100.0 -~ j- 50 .0 0 .0 oa 2ooa Revisions to RFPCslculstions

a Unused NOx ERC's 0Point NOx Area NOx N Non-Road NOx

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Feb2008Ozone AttainmentSIP RFPCalculations

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