Technical Steering Panelof the Hanford EnvironmentalDose Reconstruction Project SPECIAL REPORT Published: December 1995

Estimates of

Population by Age

and Exposure

Number of children (ages 0-4) in 1945 potentially

at risk using HEDR dose estimates by node

Estimated median thyroid dose (pasture model)1945-51
Number of children (ages 0-4) in 1945 potentially

at risk using HEDR dose estimates by node
May 11 1994

To: Technical Steeering Panel

Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

From: Richard Morrill

Subject Special report on populations by age level by dose level

Enclosed is a draft report on numbers of people likely to have received various levels

of doses, by age/residence or lifestyle combinations. These were derived from the

Battelle HEDR report on the air pathway. While the estimates are subject to

considerable uncertainty, it is hoped that they will be useful for getting a broad picture

of the magnitude of doses for people and across territory. I have no idea what levels

are more or less "meaningful", but perhaps the analysis shows a little less magnitude

and extent than seems to have been implied at our April meeting.
ALBERTSONS LIBRARY

BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY
draft draft draft draft draft

ESTIMATES OF POPULATION BY AGE AND EXPOSURE

SPECIAL REPORT:

Dr. Richard Morrill

Technical Steering Panel

May 9, 1994

The recently prepared reports on doses from Hanford radiation releases included

provocative and useful maps of exposure levels to selected representative individuals.

and others have been asked, “Well, how many people were affected?" Having completed

work earlier on the distribution ofpopulation by age, and by urban-rural residence, I was

able to estimate the numbers of people by age and levels ofexposure. In addition, the

resultsjust released suggest higher than expected deposition in Canada and perhaps

Montana, so I have undertaken a very limited analysis ofthe numbers ofpersons

potentially affected in this extended, territory.

Tables 1A, IB and 1C, and Maps 1 through 7 summarize the findings. Table 1A

presents estimates ofnumbers of people by exposure level by age group by rural and urban

residence for parts ofWashington, Oregon and Idaho in the main model domain. Table

1B gives crude estimates for extensions ofthe domain into Canada (British Columbia),

Montana, and farther into Idaho. Table 1C summarizes the total persons by state and by

age. The maps depict dose levels by age group and type ofresidence.

Table 1A. Washington includes all persons, all ofwhom are children, receiving more

than 18 rads (median) and most of persons (mostly children) receiving over 6 rad.

Moderate to small numbers of children 0 to 4 received doses over 6 in Oregon and Idaho.

Put another way, the large majority ofWashington children 0-4 in the domain, 35500 of

59000, received doses of 6 or more, and most, 53000 of59000, received doses of 1 rad or

more. Lower shares of Oregon and Idaho children received likely doses over 6, 2800 of
10000, and 1445 of 11000 respectively, but shares receiving over 1 rad were quite high:

8000 or 10000 in Oregon and 10500 of 11000 in Idaho.

Only Washington had children 5 to 19 with doses over 6 and these were 10800 of

112000 (a little under 10%). Doses over 1 might have been received by a high share of

Washington children 5 to 19 (82000 of 112000),. but smaller shares in Oregon (7500 of

19000) and Idaho (14000 of 21000). A few Washington adults (1433) may have received

doses over 6, but probably over 100000 of about 418000 may have received doses over 1

rad. In Oregon, about 20000 of 720000 might have received doses over 1; however, in

Idaho probably no adults received median doses over 1 rad. From the table, larger

numbers ofinterest include 8000 rural children with doses over 10, especially in Walla

Walla, Whitman, and Spokane counties, 16000 urban children with doses 6 to 10 , mainly

in Spokane and Walla Walla areas, 9000 urban children with doses 3-6 in Yakima,

Lewiston, Moscow-Pullman and Couer d’Alene, 15000 rural children 5 to 19 with doses 3

to 6, in Walla Walla, Whitman and Spokane counties, and 32000 urban children 5 to 19,

with doses 2 to 3, especially in the Spokane and. WallaWalla areas.

Table IB. For the area beyond the model domain, estimates are more conjectural.

Most children 0 to 4 (in Montana, 1300 of 1500, in Canada 8000 of 8500, and in Idaho

all 1670 of 1670 received possible doses over 1, and even some received likely doses over

3 (2400 in Canada). Only a modest number (1000 in Montana, 5320 in Canada) children

5 to 19 received likely doses over 1 rad.

Table 1C summarizes persons affected by states and provinces over the model domain

and the extended area. Most higher doses were to Washington residents (48000 of 52000

over 6), with a few in Oregon and Idaho, and three-quarters of all with doses over I rad

(236000 of 313 5 00) were to Washington residents; still, significant numbers of persons in

Idaho (24000), Oregon (32400) and Canada (13300) had likely exposures over 1 rad. Of

the total population of 917000 in the extended area, 5.6 % had likely doses over 6 rad and

a little over one-third (34 %) had likely doses over 1 rad. For the Washington portion, 8

% had doses over 6 and 40 % over 1 rad; in Oregon, 32 % had over 1 rad, and in Idaho,

19%, and in Canada and Montana, 16 %.
Across all age groups. 39825 or 43.5 % ofthe 91000 children 0 to 4 were exposed at 6

rads or more and 90 % (82700) at 1 rad or higher. For the 5 to 19 group, 6.2 % (10800)

wer exposed at 6 rads or higher, and 63 % (109800) at one rad or higher, but for adults

the share was only 19 % (121000).

The Maps. Figure I (Pasture, 0 to 4) The extent of a given dose level is not quite so

extensive as forjust infants, but does cover at 1 rad or more, almost all the original

domain except the extreme western edge, and does appear to spread well across the

Canada and Montana borders. A does of 6 or more extends across Spokane, at least

slightly into British Columbia. Figure 2 (Commercial, 0-4). The commercial dose levels

average about 85% ofthe pasture levels, except may be higher or lower depending on

milk redistribution, as discussed in the air report. The area over 1 rad also extends well

into Canda and Montana, and the 6 or more well past Spokane.

Figure 3 (pasture 5 to 19) and Figure 4 (Commercial, 5 to 19). The pattern here is the

same, but the doses are quite a bit less. Still the over 1 rad zone does extend into Canada

and Montana, and the over 3.2 rad area for pasture reaches the Spokane area and the over

1 rad. area just encompasses Yakima. Figure 5 (Pasture adult) and Figure 6 (Commercial,

adult) show the same pattern but doses over I are confined to Washington and Oregon,

with the over 3 rads zone quite restricted.

Figure 7 maps the extended area in British Columbia and Montana. About 50000

people, half urban, lived fairly close to the border, up the Columbia and Kootenai river

valleys; cities included Trail (11600), Rossland (4500) and Nelson (7000). The part of

British Columbia north ofIdaho and ofMontana east ofthe Idaho panhandle is also

basically the Kootenai river valley, but more interrupted by mountain ranges, and includes

about 30000 people, more dispersed and less urban.

Methodology and Assumptions

Exposure levels. I chose to provide estimate for the intervals used in the air pathway

report, but with each divided : thus < 1, 1 to 2 (1.8), 2 to3.2, 3.2 to 6 (5.6), 6 to 10, 10 to

18,18 to 32, 32 to 56, 56 to 100, and over 100.
Age groups. The maps presented in the air pathway report were only for infants < 1 in

1945, and for “adults” who were 15-19 in 1945. These are not very comprehensive, so I

chose to make estimates for children 0 to 4 (weighted average ofinfants and children 1 to

4); for older children, 5 to 19; and for adults over 20 (i.e.. already were in 1945). Note:

by “0 to 4” I mean those 0 to 4 in 1945, 1946, 1947, 1948 and 1949, adding those bom in

1946,1947,1948 and 1949 and dropping those that became 5 each year; similarly for the

other groupings. This is why the 0 to 5 group in 10% ofthe population total, not the 9 %

it was in 1945.

“Lifestyle”. Urban-rural and pasture-commercial. Great complexity is possible. I made

the following simplifying assumption, which could overestimate doses slightly. Let urban

population in 1945-1949 coincide with commercial and let rural population coincide with

pasture. This will overestimate for a few dairies whose cows were not on pasture, and for

rural areas ifcows were on stored feed.

Revised does maps. It was necessary to make six new maps, created from the

published maps and the accompanying tables. I did this by adding more contours to the

infant pasture and commercial maps (the two basic patterns), labelled the contours with

the corrected weighted doses for my age groups, based on the detailed air report tables.

Thus 0 to 4 doses were.85 the infant doses; 5 to 19 doses were .33 the infant doses and

adults . 1 the infant doses. These revised contours were plotted in population maps and

are included as Figures 1 to 6.

Estimated population. Codes for the dose levels for each cell were added to the

population spreadsheet, and sorted by dose level and populations by age by dose level

totalled. These are on Tables 1 A.

The extended area. Maps for southeastern British Columbia and northwestern Montana

were copied and reprinted in Figure 7. Populations were found from the US Census for

1950 (and 1940) and for the Canadian Census for 1951, and 1945 populations estimated.

Native American Indian populations were probably about 5 % in both Canada and

Montana [note the area does not extend to the very large Flathead reservation much

farther south]. The mapped contours were extended in a “plausible” way, but it must be

recognized that the atmospheric model is not designed to extend this far, so the values

4
should be treated with extreme caution. It is the case that a fairly large population, rural

and urban, existsjust across the border in British Columbia, with as many as 85000 in the

river valleys (Kettle River, Columbia river, and Kootenai river, immediately downwind.

The Montana population is also down the Kootenai river, but aiming southeasterly. In

addition more Idaho population, some east ofLewiston-Moscow, but most in mining

towns east ofCoeur d’Alene appears to be in the over 1 rad to children zone. In all the

extended area adds about 117000 people to the 800000 in the model domain.

Error and uncertainty. While the population totals and any larger aggregations, are

fairly certain, small estimates are not, and should be viewed as “plausible” estimates only.

Recall that the values are estimates ofmedian doses from the printed maps; thus all the

values are also subject to the uncertainty or range associated with each estimate in the

dose model (five times higher or lower). The precise placement of dose contours through

the Spokane area is critical to exactly where the population gets placed in the tables.

Since I did not have the precise calculations for nodes, these placements are subject to

correction.

Conclusion

While the number ofpersons, 52000, who may have received doses of6 rad or more is

sizeable, including 49000 ofthe 80000 young children, and while over one third of all

people. 313 000 of917000, may have received decision-level doses of 1 rad or more, the

analysis actually indicates that the number and severity are less than the first impression

one would get from the maps presented in the air repon. This is because most children

received much less than the infant dose, and most adults less than the mapped adult doses

and because the area oftruly highest doses had rather low populations. Nevertheless, the

analysis does highlight areas offairly high exposure and population, both rural and urban,

and indicates numerically important and high density rural and urban populations in critical

areas — Walla Walla, Whitman, Spokane and northern Umatilla, as well as the Tri-Cities

area itself.
Sheetl

TABLE 1A MODEL DOMAIN

WASHINGTON OREGON

Dose 0to4 Qto4 5to19 5to19 >20 >20 0to4 0to4 5to19 5to19 >20 >20

Pasture Commer Pasture Commer Pasture Comment Pasture Comment Pasture Comment Pasture Commer

100 ; 12

56 486

32 853 1700 22

18 1163 1300 1353

10 7061 2450 794 1615 396 924 1000

6 4553 16000 2910 4085 1037 421 450

>6 14134 21450 5079 5700 1433 1345 1450

3.2 4255 6350 13015 4655 2931 12240 665 1635 1615

2 2817 1210 6401 31010 10140 7200 1462 940 1545 1140 3725 2160 ’

1 2375 300 5377 10980 48123 19320 1350 900 1525 5692 8080

>1 23581 29310 29872 52315 62627 38760 4822 3290 4705 2755 9417 10240

IDAHO

Dose 0 to4 Oto 4 5to19 5to19

Pasture Comment Pasture Comment

100 [

56 |

32 ! .

18 !

10 I

8 I 1445

i 1445

3.2 2523 2500

2 1043 2150 4104

-------- 1 864 6288 3420

>1 | 5875 4850 10392 3420

TABLE IB EXTENDED AREA

MONTANA (IDAHO

Dose Oto 4 Oto 4 5to19 0 to4 0 to4 5 to 19 5 to 19 p to 4 0 to 4 . Pasture Comment Pasture Pasture Commer Pasture Commer Pastura Commer

3 50 1400 1000 I

2 200 1500 700 ! 470

1 1010 240 1000 1600 1800 2660 26601 500 TOO

>1 1210 240 1000 4500 3500 2660 26601. 970 700

<1 0 0 1850 0 500 5890 49401 0 0

All 1210 240 28SO 4500 4000 8550 76001 970 700 1

TABLE 1C TOTALS

Dose WA ORE ID ModDom MT CANADA IDext

100 12 12 56 486 486 . . ..

32 2575 2575

18 3816 38161

10 12316 1924 14240

6 28591 871 1445 30907

47796 2795 1445 520361

3 43446 3915 5023 52384 50 2400

2 58778 10972 7297 77047 200 2200 470

1 86475 17547 10572 114594 2250 8720 1200

>1 236495 35229 24337 296061 2500 13320 1670

_____ <1 352205 65721 86013 503939 12500 71680 15030

All 588700 100950 110350 800000 15000 85000 16700

Page 1
dosebyage

TOTALS Bf AGE

ALL

Oose 0 to 4 Past 0 to 4 Comm 5 to 19 Pas 5 to 19 Comm >20 Past >20 Comm ALL

100 1 2 1 2

56 486 486

32 853 1700 22 2575

1 8 1163 1300 1353 3816

1 0 7985 3450 794 1615 396 14240

6 6425 16450' 2910 4085 1037 30907

>6 16924 22900 5079 5700 1433 52036

3 8893 9850 14650 6270 2931 12240 54834

2 7492 5000 12050 32150 13865 9360 79917

1 7699 3940 16850 17060 53815 27400 126794

>1 41 008 41690 48629 61180 72044 49000 313551

<1 5192 3810 37450 25580 255500 27603 613149

All 46200 45500 86110 86310 327500 325080 916700

PEACENT. OF GROUP

Dose

56 1.1

32 1.8 3.7 0.3

1 8 2.5 2.9 1.6 0.4

1 0 17.3 7.6 0.9 1.7 0.1 1.6

6 13.9 36.2 3.4 4.3 0.3 3.4

>6 36.6 50.3 5.9 5.9 0.4 5.7

3 19.2 21.6 1 7 6.5 0.9 3.8 6

2 16.2 1 1 14 33.4 4.2 2.9 8.7

1 16.7 10.5 19.6 17.7 16.4 8.4 _____ 13.6

>1 86.7 91.6 54.1 63.1 32 15.1 34.2

Page 1

Pasture/Rural

0 to 4
Urban/Commercial

0 to 4

MAP 2
Pasture/Rural 5 to 19

MAP 3
Circles proportional to

population 1945 POPULATION

Urban/commercial 5 to 19

MAP 4
1945 POPULATION

ADULT RURAL DOSES

MAP 5
1945 POPULATION

ADULT COMMERCIAL

DOSES

Map 6

Suggestion for Table and possible Graph for Atmospheric Model report

Richard Morrill, TSP

The report provided a great complexity ofinformation ofrepresentative individuals at

representativelocations, but these are never conveniently brought together. I suggest a

table and graphic ofthe kind attached, which can probably be more readily understood by

the casual reader ofthe report I do suggest this larger number of places, in order to give

wider coverage ofIdaho and Oregon, and a little more farther out in Washington. I also

suggest the six coverages shown: children 0-4, children 5-19 and adults (over 20), for

basically rural, dependent on backyard cow on pasture, and for urban, dependent on

commercial milk, etc. production. My numbers are obviously only approximate. They are

derived as follows: The weighted average 0-4 is .85 times the mapped values for an infant

bom Dec 26,1994. The 5-19 values are a weighted average which appears to be .35

times the mapped infant values (in both cases whether backyard pasture, or commercial).

The adult map seems to actually be based on persons 15-20, judging from the printed

tables, so the more accurate adult weighted average is .71 times the mapped values or .1

times the values for infants. Ithink a graphic ofthis general type would be effective in

showing the relative magnitude ofdoses for different areas.

Note that when a weighted adult average is used, the median adult doses ofat least 1 rad

cumulative do not cross the Canadian or Montana border, so only children would appear

to be relevant to an enlarged domain.
Sheet 1

DOSES AT SELECTED PLACES

Place Past0-4 Comm 0-4 Past 5-19 Comm 5-1 PastAdult CommAdult

Ringold 200 95 60 28 26 11

Richland 79 26 24 7.5 8 3

Eitopia 62 51 18 15 8 6

Pasco 64 47 19 14 7 5.5

Ritzville 24 17 7 5 3 2

Sunnyside 13 8.5 4 2.5 2 0.9

WallaW 11 12 3.3 3.6 1.5 1.5

Spokane 8.5 7.7 2.5 2.2 1.8 0.8

Pendleton 7.3 7.7 22 2.2 1.4 1

Colfax 8.5 7.5 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.8

MosesLk 8.5 7.5 2.5 1.4 0.8

Lewiston 3.4 3.4 1 1 0.4 0.35

CoeurdAI 5 5 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.5

Chewelah 7 6 2 1.8 0.8 0.6

Yakima 2.4 4.3 0.7 12 0.3 0.4

Ellensburg 1.8 2.7 0.5 0.8 025 0.3

LaGrande 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 02

Dalles 1.3 0-8 0.4 0.2 0.14 0.1

Wenatche 0.5 0.3 0.15 0.1 0.07 0.03

Page 1
Chart 1

-♦-Pasi 0-4

-*—Comm 0-4

Past 5-19

—x—Comm 5-10

—*— pastAdult

—♦—CommAdult

Page 1