Agency for International Development

Mission:

The Agency for International Development (USAID) is charged with coordinating the
U.S. Government response to declared disasters worldwide. Within USAID, the Bureau of
Humanitarian Response's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) is concerned
with minimizing loss of life and damage to property from both natural and manmade
disasters. During relief operations, OFDA provides emergency assistance in the areas of
shelter, water and sanitation, health, food, logistics, and technical assistance. OFDA also
promotes disaster prevention, mitigation, and preparedness through public education,
emergency management training, drought and famine mitigation, shelter structural mitiga-
tion, and disaster early warning systems.

Activities:

* Provides technical assistance to design and implement interventions for famine mitiga-
tion.

* Trains disaster professionals in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

* Performs worldwide volcano and earthquake monitoring and risk assessment in coop-
eration with the U.S. Geological Survey.

* Fosters cooperation between communities, the private sector, and local government to
reduce the threat of industrial accidents in cooperation with the World Environment
Center.

* Reduces vulnerability to regional hazards and promotes sustainable development
through risk mapping, public awareness programs, and incorporation of risk level in
insurance pricing.

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

Mission:

The Public Health Service (PHS), Office of Emergency Preparedness, coordinates the
disaster preparedness, response, and recovery activities of the Department. The Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and other appropriate agencies, have responsi-
bilities for responding when natural disasters occur in the United States and, upon request,
provide technical assistance to other countries. Recently, the PHS has assisted after earth-
quakes in Japan, Egypt, and the Philippines; hurricanes in the Caribbean and the United
States; typhoons in the Western Pacific; tornadoes in the United States; a catastrophic
cyclone and storm surge in Bangladesh; volcanic eruptions in the Philippines, Chile, and
Nicaragua; a severe drought in southern Africa; and serious flooding in China and the
United States.

Activities:

+ Develops disaster preparedness plans for assisting community officials in dealing with
a disaster.

+ Develops improved strategies to prevent or mitigate injury and death, such as warning,
evacuation, and sheltering systems.

+ Provides programs and activities to ensure that the health and medical needs of stricken
areas are quickly assessed and people receive appropriate medical and public health
assistance.

+ Identifies risk factors for morbidity and mortality during disasters through epidemio-
logic research and environmental health studies to develop strategies for preventing
deaths and injuries in the future.

+ Evaluates emergency preparedness programs and the effectiveness of response to disas-
ters.

* Disseminates information, manages emergency information systems, and promotes
disaster information technology.


The International Decade for Natural Hazard Reduction

In 1984, Frank Press, President of the National Academy of Sciences, proposed an Interna-
tional Decade for Natural Hazard Reduction. In 1989, the U.N. General Assembly declared
the years 1990 through 2000 as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
(IDNDR). a period of concerted international action to reduce loss of life and property caused
by natural disasters, especially in developing countries. The goals of such action, as stated by
the United Nations, are that each nation will:

—AImprove its capacity to mitigate the effects of natural disasters.

—Apply existing scientific and technological knowledge.

—Foster advances in science and engineering.

—Disseminate new and existing technical information.

—Develop measures for the assessment, prediction, prevention, and mitigation of natural
disasters through technical assistance and technology transfer, demonstration projects,
education and training, and evaluation of program effectiveness.

The U.S. Congress passed resolutions calling for U.S. participation in the Decade. Within the
Executive Branch of the Federal Government, the President's Science Advisor requested that
the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, of the Federal Coordinating Council on
Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET), the predecessor of the National Science
and Technology Council, recommend appropriate U_S. action. This strategy and implementa-
tion plan, which builds on existing Federal programs and activities and on the strategy formu-
lated under FCCSET, is aimed mainly at reducing the domestic impact of natural hazards but
will also contribute to the IDNDR.

* Ready access to global, regional, nated, sustained action by the research

national, and local warning systems
and broad dissemination of warnings.

The National Mitigation Strategy, the
National Weather Service Modernization,
and the IDNDR incorporate numerous
milestones and performance measures.
However, these activities are operational
and are not included as focused research
programs under the Committee on Envi-
ronment and Natural Resources. The
research activities under the Subcommit-
tee on Natural Disaster Reduction
(SNDR) are necessarily built on and con-
tribute significantly to these programs.

In particular, several important objectives
can be achieved only through coordi-

and development community across a
spectrum of disciplines. Achieving these
objectives will require close collaboration
among Federal agencies, State and local
governments, the private sector, and the
general public. These objectives are the
focus of the SNDR plan. They include:

* Acomprehensive national risk assess-
ment.

* An information network to support the
National Mitigation Strategy.

* Comprehensive programs addressing
specific hazards.

A Comprehensive
National Risk Assessment

During the next 5 years, the United States
must refine capabilities for risk assess-
ment, with respect to:

* More precise characterization of the
Physical/biological risk of. specific nat-
ural hazards, including microzonation
and the cumulative risk associated
with multiple hazards.

* Improved knowledge of the interac-
tions between natural hazards and nat-
ural/manmade environments and
technological systems.

* Impact assessment (i.e., characteriza-
tion of risk in terms of the lives, prop-
erty, economic activity, and ecological
and environmental aspects affected).

* Extension of analysis capabilities
beyond the structural integrity of indi-
vidual buildings to comprehensive
assessments of the functional viability
of communities (especially large urban
areas) and regions.

* Improved ability to analyze the
cost-benefit tradeoffs of various policy
options.

* Improved introduction of best-avail-
able risk assessment into operational
Practice.

* Expanded capabilities to aid other
nations in their efforts to carry out
national assessments of risks from
their natural hazards.

During the same period, the United States
must begin to exercise these new analyti-
cal capabilities in an integrated fashion.
One product of such efforts should be a
national risk assessment. The exact form
of such an assessment has yet to be deter-

mined, but it should contain the following
elements:

* A summary of recent disasters and
extreme events.

* Acomparison of the past loss of life
and economic loss during the previous
reporting period with the predictions
of previous risk assessments.

* Assessment of risk in future years,
Over time frames ranging from the next
year to the next quarter century.

* Identification of special risks by theme
(e.g., hazard type, or engineering vul-
nerability, or ecological and environ-
mental concerns) and (or) by urban
area or geographical region.

* Highlights of advances in risk assess-
ment methodology and (or) national
capabilities for risk assessment.

An Information Network
to Support the National
Mitigation Strategy

A basic principle underlying the National
Mitigation Strategy is that mitigation
Occurs at the local level. Accordingly, the
Proposed 5- and 10-year goals for achiev-
ing the National Mitigation Strategy focus
on the development and implementation
of specific plans at State and local levels
and implementation of incentives for
undertaking mitigation. Statewide vulner-
ability assessments in all States and terri-
tories, as well as the establishment of
public awareness programs to develop
grass roots support for mitigation, adop-
tion and enforcement of local multi-haz-
ard building code provisions, and
implementation of wind, seismic, and
flood standards for all Federal construc-
tion, are necessary elements to support


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce

Mission:

The mission of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is
to promote global environmental stewardship and to describe and predict changes in the
Earth's environment. NOAA provides forecasts and warnings of various natural hazards
related to the atmosphere and the oceans: tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, tsunamis, and
geomagnetic storms. Research and development is conducted by NOAA in support of its
operational responsibilities to protect life and property from these hazards. NOAA devel-
ops observing and monitoring systems, advances understanding of underlying environ-
mental processes and predictive methodologies, and disseminates these predictions to
State and local governments and the general public.

Activities:

+ Is completing the National Weather Service modernization and associated restructur-
ing, a major effort to upgrade weather observing and data-processing systems.

© Leads the multi-agency U.S. Weather Research Program, which seeks to improve the 0-
to 48-hour weather forecast.

* Participates in the National Space Weather Program, a multi-agency effort to improve
the Nation's civilian and military space weather services.

National Science Foundation

Mission:

The National Science Foundation (NSF) is an independent agency of the Federal Govern-
ment established to promote and advance scientific and engineering progress. The NSF
sponsors and funds scientific and engineering research and education projects and sup-
ports cooperative research between the United States and other countries. Although the
NSF does not itself conduct research, it funds research on natural hazards that focuses on
new and fundamental knowledge needed to better understand, manage, and mitigate natu-
ral disasters.

Activities:

Supports basic research to:

+ Improve understanding of underlying physical phenomena, such as disruptions in the
space environment; formation of severe weather systems; precipitation, runoff, and
flood relationships; seismicity and seismic wave propagation; stability and soil collapse
Processes; soil failure mechanisms; and ground movement phenomena.

« Enhance hazard prediction and forecasting methodologies as the basis for new and
improved warning, evacuation, and response systems.

+ Improve knowledge of the behavior of structures, buildings, facilities, lifelines, techno-
logical systems, and mechanical features under extreme conditions by conducting
scale, physical simulation experimentation and mathematical simulation to provide a
framework for new and improved design, monitoring, control, and construction sys-
tems.

* Advance understanding of recovery and reconstruction processes as a foundation for
new and better methods of and decision-support systems for expedited and improved
recovery.

37


TABLE OF CONTENTS

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Strategic Plan
Goal/Opportunity .
Policy Questions and Issues..
Scientific Goal
Current State of Understanding

Program Objectives and Plans..

Agency Roles and Activities .

Constraints and Challenges

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International Dimension .

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Department of Energy

Mission:

The Department of Energy (DOE) performs basic and applied research and development

and implements policies, standards, and practices to reduce the effects of natural hazards

on buildings, facilities with hazardous materials, and energy transmission systems. It also
assesses the site-specific nature of natural hazards. develops criteria for design and evalu-
ation of new and existing facilities, upgrades existing facilities, and encourages technol-
ogy transfer through training, conferences, and technical newsletters. DOE strives to
achieve substantial mitigation of natural hazards through development and application of
performance-based, multi-hazard design and evaluation standards to support mission
objectives in energy and nuclear programs.

Activities:

* Developed the Seismic Safety Guide providing plant engineers with tools to develop
and manage practical and cost-effective seismic safety programs.

* Developed computerized earthquake ground-motion models for Eastern United States
tectonics; improved deterministic and probabilistic methods to obtain site-specific seis-
mic loads for facility design.

+ Improved standards and guides for design and evaluation of structures, systems, and
components using performance goals to provide a graded approach for building design
and risk assessment.

* Uses experience data from earthquakes to provide cost-effective methods to evaluate
and qualify equipment for earthquake loads in existing plants.

* Evaluates the structural response of existing masonry buildings by using the results of
destructive and nondestructive testing of unreinforced materials and structural systems.

* Conducts emergency preparedness activities at DOE sites and supports the Federal
Disaster Response Planning.

30

Federal Emergency Management Agency

Mission:

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides leadership and support to

reduce the loss of life and property and to protect our institutions from all types of hazards

through a comprehensive, risk-based, all- hazards emergency management program of

mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.

Activities:

* Provides continuing financial and technical assistance to State and local governments
for natural hazard reduction activities.

+ Provides post-event grants to State and local governments, after Presidentially declared
disasters, for identification of hazards and risks and implementation of hazard mitiga-
tion measures.

* Prepares and disseminates information on hazard-resistant building codes and prac-
lices.

+ Prepares and executes training, education, and public awareness programs in natural
hazard reduction.

+ Plans and coordinates activities of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Pro-
gram and the National Hurricane Program.

* Coordinates and leads a unified national program for floodplain management.

* Administers the National Flood Insurance Program, including hazard identification,
risk assessment, implementation of loss reduction measures, and provision of flood
insurance.

* Develops and coordinates the execution of Federal response and recovery plans for
disasters.

31


U.S. Geological Survey
Department of the Interior

Mission:

The U.S. Geological Survey conducts research, transfers technology to end users, and fos-
ters the adoption and implementation of public policies and professional practices to
reduce losses from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, ground subsidence, geo-
magnetic storms, floods, droughts, wildfires and biological hazards in the United States
and abroad.

Activities:
* Conducts basic research on geologic and geophysical hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes,
landslides, ground subsidence, and geomagnetic storms), hydrologic hazards (floods

and droughts), and biological hazards (including land cover characteristics for fire-fuel
assessments and disease in natural populations).

* Performs hazard and risk assessments on national, international, regional, urban, and
local scales.

* Develops monitoring networks and geographic information systems.

* Transfers the technology needed to enhance professional skills and to expand the tech-
nical capacity for mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, and recovery.

* Organizes and conducts post-disaster investigations.

Tennessee Valley Authority

Mission:

Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) activities include emergency preparedness, mitigation,
response, and recovery programs; development of agency plans, exercises, and training;
support of State and local prey and evacuation planning efforts; and interagency
planning and coordination. TVA also is involved in the evaluation, design, and construction
of specific projects to mitigate flood threats. TVA updates hazard models; develops design
standards and guides; evaluates risks due to natural hazards; and modifies and strengthens
existing dam structures and designs and constructs new facilities to withstand threats from
natural hazards. In conjunction with regional power distributors, TVA works to reduce losses
from earthquakes, severe weather, and fire. The agency manages a seismic safety program to
implement seismic design standards and Federal mandates and conducts research to assess
seismic hazards at its facilities. TVA supports Federal disaster response and recovery efforts
with technical engineering and specialized support, as required, and supports major wildland
firefighting with trained firefighters.

Activities:

+ Conducts research aimed at improving forecasting and warning services.

* Modernized its Reservoir Forecast Center by creating state-of-the-art forecast processing
to include creating an emergency backup center.

+ Developed a state-of-the-art Emergency Operations Center to effectively manage all
emergency situations.

* Participates in training programs aimed at improving hazard awareness, preparedness,
and warning capabilities.

* Designs and provides training exercises for agency personnel involving various emer-
gency scenarios, including dam safety, flood, natural disasters, security violations, fire,
police, etc.

* Establishes open communications with other local, State, and Federal agencies involved
with emergency management.

* Assesses earthquake ground motion at selected hydro facilities.

+ Implements Federal seismic safety standards for new building construction.

* Studies seismic mitigation for existing switch houses, switchboards, and relay boards.

* Replaces critical live-tank circuit breakers with dead-tank circuit breakers; designs trans-
mission line structures that will be subject to liquefaction; provides proper bracing for
transformer radiators: extends the length of jumpers from rigid buses to bushing of equip-
ment; and improves the telecommunications capability of the seismic monitoring net-
work.

* Modernizes the valleywide communications system to better integrate and coordinate
wide-area emergency response.

+ Provides trained, qualified teams to assist other Federal agencies in damage assessment,
technical assistance, and firefighting.

3


National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Mission:

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration uses the unique vantage point of
space to obtain information about the Earth—its land, atmosphere, and oceans—and the
processes that occur among these domains. Environmental and hazards research focuses
on the development, implementation, and application of new and improved remote sens-
ing and high-resolution space geodetic systems and the modeling and data analysis tech-
niques needed for such research.

Activities:

* Conducts fundamental research on the processes of hazard occurrence and recurrence.

* Performs space-based hazard mapping, risk assessment, and monitoring; detects
minute changes in topography; measures volcanic inflation and deflation and thermal
properties; tracks and models volcanic plumes: monitors crustal deformation and strain

buildup to assess earthquake hazards; tracks severe storms; monitors wildfires and
landslides.

* Develops information and communication systems for information dissemination and
disaster mitigation.

34

National Institute of Standards and Technology
U.S. Department of Commerce

Mission:

The National Institute of Standards and Technology's Building and Fire Research Labora-
tory is dedicated to improving the life-cycle quality of constructed facilities. Its perfor-
mance prediction and measurement technologies enhance the competitiveness of U.S.
industry and public safety. The laboratory studies structural, mechanical, and environmen-
tal engineering, fire science and fire safety engineering, building materials, and computer-
integrated construction practices.

Activities:
* Performs problem-focused research and development to improve practices, standards,

and codes for new and existing buildings and lifelines to reduce loss from earthquakes,
extreme winds, and fire.

* Identifies mechanisms of failure and establishes criteria to ensure structural safety.

* Develops technical criteria and methods to strengthen and repair buildings and life-
lines.

* Develops methods to predict the behavior of fire and smoke and to enable high perfor-
mance of fire detection and suppression systems.


development agencies, builders, and oth-
ers will ensure that all possible incentives
and activities that encourage individuals,
businesses, and State and local govern-
ments to implement mitigation strategies
have been addressed and explored. The
All-Hazards Radio Network, proposed as
an enhancement of the Weather Radio
Network, will provide rapid dissemina-
tion of hazard warnings to local commu-

International Dimension

Natural disaster reduction is not a domes-
tic matter alone but rather an international
challenge for the United States. The
Mount Pinatubo eruption occurred half a
world away, yet it caused immediate U.S.
losses of over $1 billion and triggered a
change in U.S. strategic military presence
in the western Pacific that will have
implications for decades. For many
nations of the world, a single natural
disaster can significantly reduce that
year’s gross national product; in a number
of regions, these events recur so fre-
quently that they strain the social fabric,
not just the economic growth. The result-
ing unrest contributes significantly to
global geopolitical instability. As a world
leader, the United States cannot afford to
focus its efforts on disaster reduction on a
domestic scale only; it must continue to
take a global approach.

Currently, the Office of Foreign Disaster
Assistance (OFDA) has the responsibility
for U.S. Government response to interna-
tional disasters. Within OFDA, the Divi-
sion of Prevention, Mitigation, Prepared-

nities, especially critical facilities such as
schools and hospitals. The private sector
and State and local governments will play
a key role in the implementation of the
network. Truly, programs aimed at reduc-
ing the impact of natural hazards must
occur on a local or regional level and,
therefore, require the considerable
involvement of State and local govern-
ments and the private sector.

ness, and Planning (PMPP) has the
responsibility for natural disaster reduc-
tion internationally, and has achieved sig-
nificant success in reducing lives lost and
economic losses due to natural disasters
globally. For example, the impact of the
Mount Pinatubo eruption was signifi-
cantly reduced because of the monitoring
provided by OFDA/PMPP through the
US. Geological Survey (USGS).

The United States Agency for Interna-
tional Development (USAID), through
OFDA/PMPP’s contributions, has signifi-
cantly improved the leadership capability
of the USGS in geophysical hazards, par-
ticularly volcanic, and in enhancing sci-
entific and technical exchanges relating to
geophysical issues. OFDA has a continu-
ing link with the Joint U.S/Japan Panel
on Wind and Seismic Effects through the
National Institute of Standards and Tech-
nology and has supported the Board on
Natural Disasters of the National Acad-
emy of Sciences.

OFDA/PMPP works with numerous
regional institutions, such as the Organi-

zation of American States, the Pan Amer-
ican Health Organization, the Asian
Institute of Technology's Disaster Pre-
paredness Center, and the World Environ-
mental Center on training and educational
programs. These programs have resulted
in major improvements in the ability of
countries in the Latin American and Car-
ibbean region and in the Asian and South
Pacific regions to manage disaster
response and decrease the social and eco-
nomic impact of natural disasters within
their countries, directly supporting the
goals of the IDNDR.

The challenge of reducing losses from
natural disasters brings with it significant
opportunity. By dint of its unique vulnera-
bility to the full range of natural hazards,
the United States enjoys unmatched world
leadership in the development and use of
a number of technologies for monitoring
natural hazards and for disaster reduction.
Continuing cooperation will enable the
United States to learn from the experience
and expertise of other nations. Similarly,
all nations profit from data exchange on
natural hazards.

International cooperation in natural disas-
ter reduction technologies and associated
educational training programs could pro-
vide important benefits to the United
States and to our foreign policy goals. For
example, cooperation can:

+ Create American jobs by increasing
US. exports of products and services
related to infrastructure, communica-
tions, and disaster response technolo-
gies.

* Advance the state of science and tech-
nology by providing the United States
with access to data, procedures, and
facilities of other nations.

* Promote global stability and sustain-
able international economic develop-
ment by reducing the impact of
disasters on economies that are partic-
ularly vulnerable, such as developing
economies.

* Accelerate the development of a global
climate observing system and improve
prospects for international conventions
on global climate change.

A United Nations framework for achiev-
ing these goals already exists—the Inter-
national Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction (IDNDR) displayed at the mid-
term World Conference on Natural Disas-
ter Reduction in Yokohama in May 1994.
The Clinton Administration showed
strengthened U.S. participation and com-
mitment to the IDNDR by having Vice
President Al Gore make a videotaped
statement to the Conference Plenary and
through high-level representation at the
meeting. The U.S. delegation was led by
Walter F. Mondale, Ambassador to Japan,
supported by Vice Chairs Frank Press and
James Lee Witt, Director of FEMA.

Natural disaster reduction poses two
international challenges for the United
States. First, because the United States
has a global reach, it has a global vulnera-
bility as well. The international financial
and monetary system has evolved to a
point where the effects of catastrophic
events are no longer confined to the
nation in which they occur. Second, natu-
ral disasters, even occurring outside U.S.
political and geographical boundaries,
can significantly impact U.S. global stra-
tegic interests and world geopolitical sta-
bility in ways that far exceed mere dollar
figures. Developing nations in particular
are least able to recover from disasters,
and, as the least prepared and protected,


management, building codes, engineer-
ing design and practice, and financial and
insurance institutional frameworks)? Just
where are the favorable cost-benefit
boundaries in specific mitigation actions
and policies?

Precisely how are urbanization, rapid
societal change, and technological
advance increasing or decreasing our vul-
nerability to natural hazards? What tech-
nological opportunities are there for
natural disaster reduction?

How will climate change affect the fre-
quency, intensity, and (or) geographic
track of natural hazards such as hurri-
canes and other storms, flooding, drought,
and wildfires?

By improving U.S. resilience with respect
to the environmental extremes repre-
sented by natural hazards, could the

Scientific Goal

To develop the predictive understanding,
technological capabilities, and societal
frameworks necessary for a sustainable
society resilient to natural hazards.

This cross-cutting scientific goal
addresses areas in which research and
development are necessary for improve-
ments in the three objective areas of
assessment, mitigation, and warning and
dissemination.

Subgoal: To improve understanding of
the physical and biological nature of
natural hazards

+ Determining climate, weather, and
hazard linkages, with special atten-

United States address the bulk of its vul-
nerabilities to global change?

What is the threat of natural hazards to the
production of food and fiber? To biomass
and biodiversity? To societal infrastruc-
ture? What are the options for reducing
these impacts?

Given the threat of natural hazards world-
wide, what are the U.S. opportunities and
responsibilities with regard to foreign pol-
icy and foreign aid? By helping other
nations cope with natural hazards, how
can the United States (1) foster its interna-
tional trade, especially technology export,
and (2) reduce global tensions?

Currently, the answers to these questions
remain vague. The effect of this uncer-
tainty is to inhibit effective policy formu-
lation. To guide the United States in this
task of natural hazards reduction, contin-
ued research and development is needed.

tion to the linkages between
weather events and floods and
between weather events and storm
surges and waves.

* Understanding how crustal stress
accumulates and is released sud-
denly to generate earthquakes; how
release of dissolved gases from
magma controls the timing, explo-
sivity, and magnitude of most vol-
canic eruptions; which factors are
responsible for the timing and loca-
tion of landslides and liquefaction;
and how tsunamis are generated by
submarine fault movements, vol-
canic explosions, and landslides.

+ Examining the fundamental rela-
tionships between ecosystem
dynamics and natural hazards such
as drought, wildfires, and pesti-
lence, including learning what eco-
system changes precede and
contribute to natural hazards and
how these changes, in turn, affect
the structure and function of eco-
systems and hence the probability
of subsequent events.

* Researching the underlying proc-
esses by which observable struc-
tures on the Sun generate
disturbances in the interplanetary
medium, the interaction of those
disturbances with the Earth's envi-
ronment, and the effects of the
resulting disruptions on communi-
cations, navigation, transportation,
security, and power and distribution
systems.

Subgoal: To better understand the

impact of natural hazards on human
health, ecological systems, and
socioeconomic framework (and the
possibilities of improving the resilience
of these systems to natural variability,
especially extreme events)

+ Studying human behavior, health,
and communication in the context
of natural hazards, including devel-
oping highly diagnostic tools for
social assessments; identifying and
developing a variety of incentives
for safe behavior; acquiring knowl-
edge of how individuals and groups
Freact to emergencies; clearly under-
standing information on health
impacts, including increased
knowledge about the epidemiology
of natural disasters, and methods
for estimating casualties; and devel-

oping effective techniques for
designing and delivering disaster
reduction programs, including iden-
tification of effective strategies for
preventing disaster-related injuries.

Building the resilience of managed
environmental systems in the face
of natural hazards to reduce dam-
ages to plants and livestock; agri-
cultural and forest management
techniques to minimize vulnerabil-
ity to disease, pests, and fire; soil
management; and improved biolog-
ical controls.

+ Determining institutional opportu-
nities and constraints and the role of
government, financial institutions,
industry, and public and private
partnerships.

* Developing accurate economic

analyses of disasters; tools for eval-

uating the costs and benefits of
disaster reduction measures and
estimating the costs of rehabilita-
tion; and making effective decisions
in the face of natural hazards.

Subgoal: To expand the base of new

environmental technologies (i.e.,
engineering and technological
capabilities for natural disaster
reduction)

* Understanding how structures and
lifelines and their systems respond
to natural hazards and how existing
Structures and lifelines might be
modified for more resilience in the
face of natural hazards; improving
engineering design with respect to
natural hazards; developing
advanced tools for hazard-averting
engineering: improving the engi-
neering of architectural and
mechanical subsystems in struc-


social change, and technological
advances are exposing new vulnerabilities
to natural hazards; the costs of natural
disasters are escalating at an alarming
rate.

Natural disasters jeopardize sustainable
development. Inaction today regarding
natural hazards compromises safety, eco-
nomic growth, and environmental quality
for generations to come. Furthermore, the
burden of natural disasters falls dispro-
portionately on the poor and disenfran-
chised. However, forward-looking
decisionmaking today regarding land
use, the direction and nature of economic
development, and needed investment in
societal infrastructure and capital facili-
ties can improve the prospects and oppor-
tunities afforded to future generations.

The impact of natural hazards mirrors
many of the challenges of global change:
in microcosm and on an accelerated time
scale. Because natural hazards occur fre-
quently, they could allow testing and
rapid evaluation of policy options in a
wide range of geographical and cultural
contexts. However, in most instances
today, such analyses are not conducted.
Accordingly, although effective natural
disaster reduction could also improve
U.S. adaptation with respect to global
change. this opportunity is largely being
missed. In a similar way, natural disaster
reduction research and activities directly
address Federal research priorities in eco-
system management.

Natural disaster reduction poses two
international challenges for the United
States. First, because the United States
has a global reach, it has a global vulnera-
bility. For example, the Mount Pinatubo

volcanic eruption, which occurred half a
world away, forced the closure of Clark

is)

Air Force Base and thus changed U.S.
strategic posture in the western Pacific for
the foreseeable future. Second, natural
disasters worldwide are an increasingly
potent trigger of geopolitical instability.
For reasons stemming from both self-
interest and humanitarianism, the United
States should exercise leadership in
reducing natural disasters worldwide.
After two centuries of research and devel-
opment on natural hazards, the United
States leads the world in developing and
implementing technologies for both mon-
itoring natural hazards and reducing natu-
ral disasters. For example, we have
weather surveillance technologies and
wind and seismic engineering that are
unsurpassed. This investment creates an
extraordinary foreign policy opportunity
for the United States with respect to both
foreign assistance and trade promotion.

Business-as-usual approaches to natural
disaster reduction have focused on saving
lives and disaster recovery. The limited
attention paid to mitigation encouraged
societal resistance to natural hazards—

We can help create a
sustainable society, resilient to
natural disasters

e.g., building levees that would withstand
the lesser flooding events but fail during
major floods: putting out smaller forest
fires but allowing the buildup of forest
fuels over time and thus setting the stage
for the massive forest fires of recent
years. As a result, we now have the same
number of natural disasters, but those that
do occur are often of greater magnitude.
The Nation’s Strategy for Natural Disas-
ter Reduction focuses on the transition

from policies aimed at resistance to natu-
ral hazards to policies that build resilience
to natural hazards.

To meet the challenges ahead, our Nation
must make three major policy shifts: (1)
anticipate and assess risk, not simply
react to disasters; (2) focus on mitigation
that builds resilience at the earliest plan-
ning stages, not as an afterthought. and
deal with mitigation comprehensively
rather than piecemeal; and (3) implement
warning and dissemination systems that
allow society to bring its resilience into
play. By expanding our goal beyond sav-
ing lives to ensuring the continued, unin-
terrupted functionality and viability of
communities, regions, and their associ-
ated managed and natural ecosystems, we
can help create a sustainable society, resil-
ient to natural disasters.

Research is needed to drive this transi-
tion, especially with respect to (1) the
physical and biological structure and
character of the hazards themselves;

(2) improved risk assessments to guide
natural disaster reduction; (3) holistic,
systems-level understanding of the socio-
economic factors driving societal vulner-
ability and the full range of engineering
and other strategies available to improve
mitigation and adaptation: and (4) im-
proved use of new information technolo-
gies to disseminate warnings and provide
integrated, ready access to information on
natural disaster reduction. This research
will improve the links between the physi-
cal, biological, and social and economic
sciences and environmental policy and
will aid in the development of science
policy tools.

Future directions for natural disaster
reduction. in addition to individual
agency plans relating to specific responsi-
bilities, build on the National Mitigation
Strategy, developed in concert with over
two dozen Federal agencies under the
leadership of the Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA), and on a
multibillion-dollar modernization and
associated restructuring of the National
Weather Service (Department of Com-
merce/National Oceanographic and
Atmospheric Administration) in coordi-
nation with parallel efforts at the Depart-
ment of Defense and Department of
Transportation (not under National Sci-
ence and Technology Council auspices).
Key elements include:

* Development of a National Risk
Assessment to report periodically on
the Nation's exposure to natural haz-
ards and trends or changes in that
exposure and to guide priorities in nat-
ural disaster reduction efforts.

* Development of an Integrated Natural
Disaster Mitigation Information Net-
work to provide the tools needed by
Federal agencies, State and local gov-
ernments, the private sector, and the
general public as they identify neces-
Sary steps and take the actions dictated
by the National Mitigation Strategy.
The network will also facilitate
much-needed augmentation of educa-
tion and training.

* Augmentation of comprehensive, haz-
ard-specific programs, including the
National Earthquake Hazards Reduc-
tion Program, the National Space
Weather Program. and the U.S.
Weather Research Program.


NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION

A Plan for the Nation

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

During the period August 1992-Decem-
ber 1995, the United States experienced
structural losses amounting, on average.
to about $1 billion a week on natural
disasters.! Such expenditures can, and
should, be reduced. The United States
must create a sustainable society, resilient
to natural hazards.

Natural hazards of terrestrial origin
(earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, land-
slides, tsunamis, hurricanes and other
severe storms, tornadoes and high winds,
floods, wildfires, and drought) and
solar-terrestrial hazards (solar flares and
geomagnetic storms) are inevitable.

‘Between August 1992 and December 1995, major
Josses resulted from: Hurricane Andrew, $25 B;
Hurricane Iniki, $12 B; March 1994 blizzard, $6 B:
1993 Midwest floods, $30 B; Northridge earth-
quake, $30 B; 1993-1994 winter storms, 1994 spring
floods, and summer wildfires, S25 B; 1995 spring
floods, $7 B; 1995 hurricanes, more than $6 B. In
addition to these major losses, numerous other
storms and flooding events resulted in losses
exceeding $1 Beach. These estimates cover struc-
tural losses only; economists estimate that direct
business losses are comparable in magnitude.

By contrast, natural disasters—the linger-
ing disruption of entire communities, per-
sisting long after the causative event itself
and exceeding the communities’ ability to
recover unaided—are determined as
much or more by societal behavior and
practice as by nature per se. The impacts
of natural hazards can, at a minimum, be
mitigated or, in some instances, prevented
entirely.

Natural disasters kill and inflict human
suffering. In addition, they destroy prop-
erty, economic productivity, and natural
resources, and they harm the environ-
ment. Assets are diverted from much-
needed investments in our future—

Natural disasters can, at a
minimum, be mitigated or, in some
instances, prevented entirely

research, education, and the eradication of
crime, disease, and poverty. Recent popu-
lation growth, urbanization, worldwide


suffer the most devastating impacts. More
than 95 percent of all deaths caused by
disasters occur in developing countries,
and the losses, as a percentage of gross
national product, are almost 20 times
greater than those suffered by industrial-
ized countries. When disasters occur fre-
quently, a nation's economic development
is constrained, social stability is under-
mined, and the stage is set for civil and
political unrest. However, example after
example has demonstrated that, although
natural hazards will always exist, natural
disasters need not be. Through effective
action, it is possible to reduce the impact
of natural hazards on everyday human
experience. Indeed, expenditures for
disaster prevention are repaid several
times over in savings of unbudgeted
disaster relief and recovery expenses.

In response to the global need to reduce
loss of life and property and to reduce
social and economic disruption caused by
natural disasters, especially in develop-
ing countries, the United Nations General
Assembly declared 1990 through 2000
AD. as the International Decade for Nat-
ural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Each
member nation was urged to develop a
national program for the IDNDR that,
together with others, would constitute the

core of the IDNDR effort. The work of
the SNDR in providing a forum for coop-
eration among U.S. Federal agencies par-
ticipating in natural hazard assessments,
mitigation, and warning and dissemina-
tion is congruent with the U.N. request.
The SNDR has also been an active partic-
ipant in the global effort for the IDNDR,
through its active participation in the
development of alert systems, mitigation
capabilities, and the capacity to assess
vulnerability as well as participation in
international forums, including the 1994
World Conference on Natural Disaster
Reduction at Yokohama, Japan.

For both self-interest and humanitarian
reasons, the United States should exercise
leadership in reducing natural disasters
worldwide. After two centuries of
research and development on natural haz-
ards, the United States leads the world in
technologies for monitoring natural haz-
ards and for reducing natural disasters.
This investment creates an extraordinary
foreign policy opportunity for the United
States, with respect to both foreign assis-
tance and trade promotion. In addition,
the United States would gain important
data as well as access to engineering and
scientific expertise through cooperation
with other nations.

APPENDIX

Agency Roles and Activities


tainable development are necessarily
woven together. Physical plants and facil-
ities must be designed to survive the natu-
ral hazards that they can expect to
experience throughout their lifetimes.
New technologies must be examined with
an eye to the new vulnerabilities that they
may create with respect to natural haz-
ards. For example, current dependence on
computers and high-speed telecommuni-
cations means that, even if electrical
power is protected during a storm or
earthquake, the loss of business activity
could be substantial if computers are
destroyed and communications disrupted.

Natural disaster reduction is also a matter
of environmental justice. The burden of
natural disasters falls disproportionately
on the disenfranchised—the poor, ethnic
minorities, the aged, and those with dis-
abilities. Worldwide, loss of life from
floods, earthquakes and storms is far
higher among the less developed nations
than it is in developed nations. Within
each nation, the poor are most greatly
affected, even in developed nations. Two
thirds of the casualties after the Kobe
earthquake in Japan were the elderly. In
the United States, the greatest danger
from tornadoes lies in mobile home parks.
In the 1995 heat wave, most of the fatali-
ties were among the elderly. Further-
more, natural disaster reduction is
intergenerational. The disasters we suffer
today are, to a large extent, inevitable
consequences of decisions made by our
forefathers. By contrast, forward-looking
decisionmaking today regarding land
use, the direction and nature of economic
development, and needed investment in
societal infrastructure and capital facili-
ties improves the prospects and opportu-
nities afforded to future generations.
Unfortunately, these forward-looking

practices are rarely proportionately dis-
tributed across economic, ethnic, and
societal groups. In addition, housing for
the poor and disenfranchised is often
located in marginal areas (such as along
flood plains or on hillsides) and is rarely
retrofitted with modern mitigation tech-
nologies.

Natural disaster reduction
and sustainable development
are necessarily woven together

Natural hazards impact and shape the
environment and biodiversity. The Mid-
west drought of 1988 and the floods of
1993 both had impacts not only on local
riverine ecosystems but also downstream
on Gulf of Mexico coastal ecologies,
through changes in salinity, as well as
transport of toxins and other pollutants
washed out by the floods. The floods also
accelerated the spread of the Zebra mus-
sel in the Mississippi watershed. In
many respects, the Mississippi River
flooding of 1993 was exacerbated by fail-
ure to take into account the role of river-
ine ecologies in mitigating flooding and
by years of engineering practices that
neutralized much natural protection.

Hurricane Andrew had a strong effect not
only on the city of Homestead, Fla., but
also on the entire ecosystem of the Ever-
glades and nearby coastal waters. Timber
losses during the winter ice storms of
1993-94 cost casualty insurers more than
their total payout in the aftermath of Hur-
ricane Andrew. The 1994 forest fires cost
several lives, destroyed millions of acres
of habitat, and threatened many commu-
nities. Current strategies for protecting
renewable natural resources and biodiver-
sity in the United States must therefore

take into account the impact of natural
hazards.

In keeping with its commitment to natural
disaster reduction, the United States
should build optimal decisionmaking into
weather- and climate-sensitive sectors of
the economy such as agriculture, con-
struction, energy production and use,
transportation, and water-resources man-
agement. In most cases, decisionmaking
will need to be based on pinpoint, timely
forecasts rather than on simple observa-
tion of prevailing conditions.

Fundamental New
Approaches Are Required

Sustainable development requires a
reworking of the U.S. posture toward nat-
ural disaster reduction. In general:

* Attention must shift from the current
emphasis on reaction to natural disas-
ters to greater anticipation of natural
hazards, on the basis of long-range risk
assessment and accurate, timely, deter-
ministic prediction.

* Hazard-by-hazard, site-by-site
approaches must give way to compre-

hensive, coordinated, community wide
planning and action.

+ Affer-the-fact retrofits must give way
to societal planning and ways of doing
business that build in resilience to nat-
ural hazards from the beginning and
from the ground up.

More specifically:

Broadcast warnings must be replaced
by fail-safe two-way communications
to ensure thal warnings reach those in
harm's way.

* Special attention must be given to the
needs of the disenfranchised, because
the burden of natural disasters often
falls primarily on the poor.

* Reliance on Federal bailouts must give
way to increased individual responsi-
bility for insuring against unacceptable
risk.

* Federal, State, and local governments,
as well as the private sector and the
general public, must act in partnership.

* The United States must show leader-
ship internationally and focus on a
multi-hazard approach.

Policy Questions and Issues

The broad outline of a US. strategy for
reducing losses from natural disasters is
clear—improved risk assessment, better
mitigation practice, and enhanced warn-
ing. Within that envelope, however,
important policy questions remain.

What are the expected impacts of natural
hazards on the United States in future
years under prevailing policies?

Who should bear these costs? What is the
Federal share? How should these costs be
built into the Federal budget? Can the
US. insurance industry remain economi-
cally viable following a future major
earthquake or hurricane? If not, what
form of reinsertion is needed?

To what extent can these costs be reduced
by changes in policy (e.g., land use and


U.S. Department of Defense

Mission:

As part of its mission to preserve national security, the Department of Defense (DoD)
develops programs to deal with emergency preparedness, assessment, mitigation, inter-
vention, response, and recovery from natural disasters. The DoD conducts research and
development to minimize the reduction in operational readiness caused by the occurrence
of natural disasters and to minimize the resources needed to restore these capabilities. The
DoD response to natural disasters includes military assistance to insure the security of
populations and property, rapid damage assessment to facilitate rehabilitation programs,
and emergency reconstruction of critical infrastructure. To support these loss-minimiza-
tion activities, DoD conducts research and development in military and civil works pro-
grams that relate to every major kind of natural disaster, as well as militarily oriented
research that has dual applicability to natural disasters.

Activities:

* Anticipates and quantifies disaster scenarios.

* Develops efficient. resilient design or retrofit of conventional DoD facilities, including
buildings and utilities.

* Develops innovative techniques for construction of airfields and pavements and
advanced engineering systems to maintain or restore critical airbase capability under
adverse conditions.

* Improves survivability of critical facilities.

* Develops logistics capabilities, systems, and structures for effective ocean and water-
front operations under adverse conditions.

* Provides logistics support for rapid deployment of people and supplies and engineering
design for rapid development or repair of essential infrastructure (such as power sup-
ply, communication, transportation routes, shelters, water supply, etc.).

+ Evaluaies earthquake effects on reservoir dams and appurtenant structures and devel-
ops effective remediation where necessary. The Corps of Engineers has direct responsi-
bility for over 600 dams, 200 of which are located in seismically hazardous areas.
Failure of these structures would have great potential for large loss of life and property.

38

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Mission:

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) improves and preserves the quality of
the environment, both national and global. EPA works to protect human health and the
productivity of the natural resources on which all human activity depends. EPA ensures
that Federal environmental laws are implemented and enforced effectively.

Activities:
* Implements environmental research into standards for bioremediation, debris burning,
water quality, and soil toxicity after chemical and oil spills.

+ Develops computer models and programs for management of chemical releases,
including plume and dispersion models.

* Performs systematic risk assessments of chemical industries, particularly in areas at
risk for earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods.

* Maintains a cadre of highly trained specialists in chemical response and environmental
disasters.

* Promotes international coordination and cooperation between industrial and industrial-
izing countries to improve chemical safety practices and regulation and provides train-
ing, technical assistance, and response for chemical emergencies.

39


NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION
A PLAN FOR THE NATION

National Science and Technology Council
: Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources
| Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction

2 sD
December 1996



The roles of massive urbanization, tech-
nological advance, globalization of soci-
ety, and cultural diversity in changing
societal vulnerability to natural hazards in
particular are not well understood. Espe-
cially worrisome is the prospect that such
trends will lead to more massive. complex
disasters in the world of the future and the
growing contribution of such events to
geopolitical instability.
Research Priorities
Human interactions: Our understanding
of individual response and vulnerability
to natural hazards must be improved, and
opportunities for safer behavior must be
increased. Improved analytical tools are
needed for the study of institutional
opportunities, as are constraints for natu-
ral disaster reduction. Improved cost-ben-
efit analysis is essential for natural
disaster reduction.

Integrated assessments: Methods of inte-
grated assessments must be developed
that include scientific and technological
information as integral components of the
decisionmaking process. These inte-
grated assessments provide a measure of
the “value in use” of the information, as
well as the direct linkages between scien-
tific and technological information and
social and economic policy instruments.

Development of Science
Policy Tools

Our understanding of the options and
opportunities for reducing the impact of
natural hazards and adapting to their
occurrence is rudimentary at best. The
major policy tool of the past has been
insurance; as the scale and cost of natural
disasters have grown, the casualty insur-
ers have been threatened. Prior to 1988,

casualty insurers had never suffered a loss
from any single event exceeding $1 bil-
lion; since then, they have suffered such
losses on 17 occasions. Over half of all
the losses incurred throughout their entire
history have been suffered since 1990.
Research Priorities

Health: Capabilities for assessing health
impacts immediately following a disaster
must be improved, including methods of
data collection that will characterize
affected populations and the need for
emergency medical services. Without this
information, it is difficult to plan in a
cost-beneficial way to handle future med-
ical emergencies stemming from natural
disasters.

Disaster epidemiology: The following
issues must be addressed: description of
the public health impacts of different
types of natural disasters; descriptions of
the natural history of acute health effects;
analysis of risk factors for adverse health
effects in order to develop effective strate-
gies for preventing death and injury; clini-
cal investigations of the impact of
diagnostic and treatment approaches;
improved understanding of the long-term
health effects and psychosocial impacts of
disasters; the effectiveness of various
kinds of assistance and the long-term
effects of aid on the restoration of pre-
disaster conditions; and improved public
health surveillance and accurate reporting
of disease outbreaks following a disaster
so that appropriate disease control mea-
sures and proper follow-up actions can be
taken.

Casualty estimation modeling: Estima-
tions of disaster-related casualties must be
improved to guide the public- and private-
sector organizations responsible for pub-
lic safety. Predictions from more realistic

models could be used to improve natural
hazard mapping, risk assessment and
management strategies, and early warning
systems. In addition to improving esti-
mates of casualties from future disasters,
this research can also be used to develop
more realistic scenarios for training simu-
lations and exercises, improve design
guidelines for building safety, help plan-
ners predict the impact of hazards on
vulnerable subpopulations and allocate
medical resources, and lead to more
effective medical training for response
personnel.

Economic assessments: Validation of the
methods and models available for accu-
rately assessing economic impacts both
before and following disasters on all
scales (local, regional, and international)
must be improved. Methods for assessing
ecological system damage are also
needed, as are methods for measuring the
risk to cultural assets and the valuation of
these assets. Research is also needed in
the development of improved and innova-
tive cost-benefit models and methods for
assessing Past, present, and proposed mit-
igation, prediction, response, and recov-
ery policies and the development of
improved methods for accurately assess-
ing the costs of rehabilitating both natural
and built environments following natural
disasters.

Environmental
Technologies

A number of promising technologies exist
for monitoring, risk assessment, and miti-
gation; however, their use in demonstra-
tion projects, let alone in general practice,
has been extremely limited.

Research Priorities

Engineering: Research is needed to
develop new or promising technologies
and speed their utilization. Increased
attention should be focused on engineer-
ing of massively integrated human sys-
tems and identification of unanticipated
new exposures and risks to natural haz-
ards emerging as a result of technological
advance.

Observations and
Information and
Data Management

Information on natural disaster reduc-
tion—real-time information regarding
the development of hazards as well as
general information on risk, natural haz-
ards, opportunities, and "how-to" infor-
mation for mitigation—remains today
fragmented and difficult to access. No
single source exists for the broad range of
information needed for natural disaster
reduction, nor are there aids to help inte-
grate information from diverse sources.
Information dissemination: Development,
through demonstration projects, of an
information resources network on the
information highway. Geographic infor-
mation systems (GIS) technology will
permit interactive visualization and analy-
sis of any natural hazard or combination
of hazards, population densities, streets,
lifelines, communities at risk, and other
information that can be shown on maps.
Different types of information can be
overlain, and degrees of risk can be
aggregated. GIS will also provide refer-
ences to germane case studies (both suc-


tures; and developing engineering
systems for monitoring, testing,
communications, search and rescue,
and event suppression.

Subgoal: To improve data management

+ Providing timely dissemination and
convenient online access to real-
time hazards observations and
warnings as well as complete meta-
data and retrospective information
on all aspects of natural disaster
reduction; making expert systems
available to help with application of
the information.

Subgoal: To substantially improve
assessments of risk (with respect to
geographical and temporal specificity
of risks likely from individual hazards
and to cumulative risk associated with
multiple hazards, end-to-end impacts,
and cost-benefit analyses of disaster
reduction measures)

+ Improving the Nation's capacity to
perform systems-level risk assess-
ments to provide (1) reliable and

valid estimates of the expected
losses from natural hazard events
(structures, buildings, building con-
tents, life loss and injury), (2) an
assessment of the consequences of
those losses (social, economic,
political, environmental, and

legal), and (3) a means for assessing
the costs, benefits, effectiveness,
and priorities of alternative risk mit-
igation policies and strategies.

* Developing regional hazard, vul-
nerability, exposure, and socioeco-
nomic databases for performing
quantitative risk assessments and
for monitoring and validating risk
simulations.

* Developing enhanced dynamic sim-
ulation models to assess high-con-
sequence risks resulting from
catastrophic changes that are
extremely difficult to predict in
nature.

Current State of Understanding

Scientific Basis for
Ecosystem Management

Characterization of basic physical and
biological hazards varies a great deal
from hazard to hazard and between geo-
graphic locations. Generally, however, we
lack the understanding needed for making
timely predictions that are specific
enough to allow those potentially
impacted to take measures to mitigate or
entirely prevent a disaster. For example,

there is currently no fully accepted expla-
nation of the entire causal series of proc-
esses responsible for the 1993 Midwest
floods. Although important progress has
been achieved in predicting the effects of
earthquakes and in delineating zones of
potential damage, many potentially active
fault zones remain unidentified. Further-
more, prediction of earthquakes them-
selves remains elusive. Volcano monitor-
ing has reached an advanced stage and the
importance of certain precursors is now

recognized; however, further work is
needed in the fundamental physics of
magma flow, flows of exsolved volatiles
and heated ground water, and related edi-
fice deformation and failure. We have a
far better understanding of how interplan-
etary disturbances affect the Earth than
we have of the processes responsible for
the creation of these disturbances on the
Sun itself and their propagation through
the interplanetary medium—knowledge
that is necessary for timely predictions.

Research Priorities

Climate, weather, and hydrologic sys-
tems: Better monitoring and prediction of
the causal linkages between climate and
weather and hazards such as floods,
drought, and wildfire. Special focus on
hydrologic impacts, such as improved
ability to predict floods and better manage
our water resources. Improved predictive
capability with regard to storm surge.
Research priorities for this element are
embodied in the Federal publication Pre-
dicting Our Weather: A Strategic Plan for
the U.S. Weather Research Program.

Solid earth processes: Improved under-
standing with regard to the crustal stress
accumulation and release responsible for
earthquakes; release of dissolved gases
from magma and interactions with ground
water to control the timing, explosivity,
and magnitude of major volcanic erup-
tions; the influences of rock strength,
slope, water saturation, and preexisting
slip planes on landslides and soil liquefac-
tion; the recurrence rates and identifica-
tion of high-risk fault zones; and tsunami
generation by submarine fault move-
ments, volcanic explosions, and land-
slides.

Ecosystem processes: Improved under-
standing of how multiple hazards interact
to threaten forests and agriculture; eco-
system response to physical and biologi-
cal events; the causal mechanisms and
abatement processes that determine the
origin, development, and termination of
ecological hazards; and the effects of cat-
astrophic events that induce disasters
indirectly (both natural and anthropolo-
genic, such as damage to oil and chemical
facilities).

Ecological systems: Improved resistance
of important plant and domestic livestock
species to diseases, insect pests, and envi-
ronmental stresses induced by drought;
improved methods for managing forest
and agricultural vegetation to reduce the
intensity, frequency, and (or) magnitude
of the impacts of natural hazards;
improved soil management to enhance
drought and flood resistance before and
during droughts or floods; and develop-
ment of natural biological controls of
insect and disease outbreaks.

Space environment processes: Better
monitoring, understanding, and prediction
of the causal linkages between conditions
on the Sun and in the interplanetary
medium and hazards to terrestrial systems
such as geomagnetic disturbances and
solar particle events.

Socioeconomic
Dimensions of
Environmental Change

A clear understanding of the socioeco-
nomic forces needed to reduce natural
disasters versus those that exacerbate the
problem is only now coming into focus.


STRATEGIC PLAN
Goal / Opportunity

Create a Sustainable Society,
Resilient to Natural Hazards

Sustainable development—which meets
the needs of the present without compro-
mising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs—is generally
understood to require (1) economic
growth, (2) protection of the environment,
and (3) sustainable use of ecological sys-
tems. There is, however, a fourth criterion
of equal importance: Sustainable develop-
ment must be resilient with respect to the
natural variability of the Earth and the
solar system.

Sustainable development must be
resilient with respect to the
natural variability of the
Earth and the solar system

This variability can be extreme. Violent
events—earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,
landslides, subsidence, tsunamis, hurri-
canes and other severe storms, tornadoes
and high winds, floods, wildfires,
drought, geomagnetic storms, meteoritic
and cometary impacts—brutally interrupt
the affairs of society and ecosystems
alike. These events have not merely punc-
tuated Earth's history so much as they
have defined it. Although some natural
events such as wildland fires and floods
are important for maintaining the viability
and health of the landscape, certain ones
can have adverse effects on society. Our

success in coping with these events in the
future will determine our destiny.

Natural hazards—that is, the extreme
geophysical phenomena themselves—are
inevitable. In principle and (in most
cases) in practice, they can be predicted.
although sometimes only a few hours or
days in advance. The threat that they pose
can be assessed, albeit with some uncer-
tainty, decades or centuries in advance.

All too often, however, natural hazards
lead to natural disasters—ingering dis-
ruptions of entire communities, persist-
ing long after the causative event itself
and exceeding the communities’ abilities
to recover unaided. Such natural disasters
are determined as much or more by soci-
etal behavior and practice as they are by
nature alone. They reveal that our eco-
nomic development is unacceptably brit-
ue and fragile, altogether too vulnerable
to the normal workings of nature. The
effects of natural disasters can, and
should, be reduced.

Cost-effective, affordable opportunities
for natural disaster reduction abound.
Disaster reduction begins with risk
assessment and care to stay out of harm's
way. Proper land use and management,
especially in coastal and riverine environ-
ments, near fault zones, and in other geo-
logically active sites, can result from
good risk assessments. They can also lead
to mitigation of disastrous consequences.
Further opportunities for disaster reduc-
tion are afforded by good mitigation prac-

tices—adequate building codes and
proper enforcement of these codes: care-
ful attention to ensure the resilience of
societal lifelines such as transportation
systems, gas, water. and electrical power
delivery, and communications; and appro-
priate agriculture and silviculture. Proper
societal frameworks and policies, with
respect to public awareness, cultural val-
ues, and financial and insurance institu-
tional structure and behavior, are also
essential components of any mitigation
strategy.

Once the risk becomes reality—from the
event onset. throughout its duration, and
in the immediate aftermath—the highest
priorities for saving lives and reducing
injury are an adequate warning system
and well-rehearsed, effective emergency
response procedures. Some hazards, nota-
bly drought. flooding, and wildfires, offer
opportunities for active intervention.
Much can also be done during short- and
long-term disaster recovery to mitigate
the impacts.

These three elements—risk assessment as
the necessary Starting point, to identify
the resiliency needed; an overarching mit-
igation strategy to build societal resil-
ience to hazards; and warning and
information dissemination to bring that
resiliency into play immediately before
and during the hazardous event itself—
are the comerstones of natural disaster
reduction.

U.S. Stakes Are High and
Climbing

Today. the rising toll of insured losses,
government expenditures and other indi-
cators provide mounting evidence that the
United States lacks resilience in the face

w

of natural hazards. Risk assessments,
mitigation strategies, and warning capa-
bilities of the past and present are inade-
quate to meet future requirements.
Although fatalities have decreased in
recent years, despite population growth,
there are worrisome signs that this
decrease reflects recent good fortune
more than foresight. Meanwhile, the rise
in property and economic losses has been
meteoric. In a l-year period, Hurricanes
Andrew and Iniki, the March 1993 "storm
of the century,” and the Midwest floods
cost the country over $50 billion. A few
months later, the Northridge earthquake
added another $30 billion to the price tag.
NOAA's National Climate Data Center
estimates that 15 major weather-related
disasters alone resulted in direct and indi-
rect losses of $70 billion between August
1992 and January 1996.

Future prospects are sobering. Continued
US. population growth, increased urban-
ization and concentration in hazard-prone
coastal areas, increased capital and physi-
cal plant, accelerated deterioration of the
urban infrastructure, and emerging but
unknown new vulnerabilities posed by
technological advance virtually guaran-
tee that economic losses from natural haz-
ards will continue to rise throughout the
early part of the coming century. Losses
of $100 billion from individual events.
and perhaps unprecedented loss of life,
loom in our future.

Natural Disaster
Reduction is a Sustainable
Development Issue

Sheer size and geography expose the

United States to a broad range of hazards,
so that natural disaster reduction and sus-


Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Mission:

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), under the Federal Power Act, is
mandated to regulate all non-Federal public and private hydroeleciric projects in the
United States. The Commission has established a dam safety program to require repairs
and/or modifications of projects, or changes in their operation, as may be necessary to
ensure project safety and adequacy of project works and for the protection of life, health,
property, and the environment.

Activities:
* Develops engineering guidelines for dam safety analyses.

+ Establishes methodology and criteria for determining probable maximum precipitation
and probable maximum floods.

* Conducts seismic analyses and evaluations and develops criteria for analyzing and pro-
tecting dams against failure due to seismic events.

+ Establishes and maintains an emergency action plan program to provide early warning
notification and provides training for conducting tests.

* Provides criteria to promote public safety at jurisdictional projects.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

Mission:

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) administers Federal housing
programs that increase the quality and affordability of housing. This effort fulfills its legis-
lative mandate to provide decent, safe. and sanitary housing in a suitable living environ-
ment for every American family by enhancing the strength and stability of the Nation's
housing markets. HUD also funds earthquake studies related to disaster response, damage
assessment, and mitigation. HUD is also engaged in conducting seismic risk assessments
of HUD-assisted properties and in developing seismic safety standards for such properties
as well as for manufactured housing. Additionally, the Department provides major
rebuilding and emergency housing assistance to earthquake-stricken communities such as
Northridge, Calif.

Activities:

+ Develops Minimum Property Standards (MPS) for design and construction of single-
family, multifamily, and public housing projects and Manufactured Housing Construc-
tion and Safety Standards (MHCSS) to enable manufactured housing to resist natural
hazards.

* Performs risk and vulnerability assessments of existing residential construction under
HUD programs and retrofits and strengthens buildings to resist natural hazards.

* Trains professional engineers for post-disaster investigation and maintains and equips
quick-response post-disaster investigation teams.

* Provides natural disaster reduction information to all HUD field offices and dissemi-
nates information to civil engineers at local, State, and Federal levels.

* Provides structural engineering review and analysis of designs of new and existing res-
idential buildings to assure resistance to natural hazards.

* Conducts building technology research and tests residential building components and
systems to assure adequate and cost-effective resistance to natural hazards; fosters
interagency agreements with other Federal agencies for research and testing.

* Maintains representation on building code and standards committees to upgrade natural
hazard provisions to current state of knowledge; recommends revisions to building
codes and standards.

33


U.S. Department of Transportation

Mission:

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) conducts research to advance disaster-
resistant design, construction, and retrofit of the transportation infrastructure through
nationally applicable specifications and guides to recommended practice; assesses DOT
facil to prevent interruption of vital DOT functions; and provides immediate response
to major disasters.

USS. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1997—424-500

ABSTRACT

The United States currently loses, on average, about $ billion per week to natural disas-
ters. Such losses can and should be reduced. The United States must create a sustainable
society, resilient to natural hazards. Natural hazards of terrestrial origin (earthquakes, vol-
canic eruptions, landslides, tsunamis, hurricanes and other severe storms, tornadoes and
high winds, floods, wildfires and drought) and solar-terrestrial hazards (solar flares and
geomagnetic storms) are inevitable. By contrast, natural disasters—the lingering disrup-
tion to entire communities, persisting long after the causative event itself—are determined
as much or more by societal behavior and practice as by nature itself. The impacts of natu-
ral hazards can, at a minimum, be mitigated or, in some instances, prevented entirely.

To meet the challenges ahead, our Nation must make three major policy shifts: (1) anti
pate and assess risk, not simply react to disasters; (2) focus on mitigation that builds resil-
ience at the earliest planning stages, not as an afterthought, and deal with mitigation
comprehensively rather than piecemeal; and (3) implement warning and information dis-
semination systems that allow society to bring its resilience into play. The first steps
toward achieving this goal rely upon our Nation’s ability to focus its efforts on the follow-
ing elements: (1) a national risk assessment; (2) an integrated natural disaster mitigation
information network; and (3) augmentation of comprehensive, hazard-specific programs,
including the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the National Space
Weather Program, and the U.S. Weather Research Program. By expanding our goal
beyond saving lives to ensuring the continued, uninterrupted functionality and viability of
communities, regions, and their associated managed and natural ecosystems, we can cre-
ate a sustainable society, resilient to natural disasters.

For Additional Copies, Contact:

William Hooke, National Weather Research Program, NOAA

telephone: (301) 713-0460 ext 218

fax: (301) 713-0666

via link from OSTP Home Page:
hitp://www.whitchouse.gov/WH/EOP/OSTP/htm/OSTP_Home.html

For Further Information, Contact:

Environment Division, OSTP
telephone: (202) 456-6202
fax: (202) 456-6025


Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction

William Hooke
Robert Hamilton
Robert Volland

Chris Adams
William Anderson
Miriam Baltuck
Richard Behnke
Riley Chung
Gienn Coplon
Paula Davidson
Cheryl Eichom
Lawrence Enomoto
Rene Eppi

‘Shou Shan Fan
Dave Farrell

Joe Friday

Ed Gross

Robert Hall

Walter Hays
Rosalind Helz
Barry Heyman
Jim Hill

Mary Ellen Hynes
Joe Koester
Joanna Long
William Luth
James Makris
Josephine Malilay

Thomas Murray
Eric Noji

Elaine Padovani
Erie Paylor
John Porco

Noel Raufaste
Claire Rubin
Eleonora Sabadell
Don Sarreals

Jim Saveland

Robert Stein

Nathalie Valette-Silver
James Whitcomb

Art Zeizel

Chair, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Science Vice-Chair, U.S. Geological Survey
Policy Vice-Chair, Federal Emergency Management Agency

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Science Foundation

National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Science Foundation

National Institute of Standards and Technology
Department of Energy

Department of Energy

US. Geological Survey

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
U.S. Department of Agriculture

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers

U.S. Geological Survey

U.S. Geological Survey

Department of State

Department of Energy

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

U.S. Amy, Corps of Engineers

Office of Management and Budget

Department of Energy

Environmental Protection Agency

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

US. Geological Survey

National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Department of Transportation

National Institute of Standards and Technology
Environmental Protection Agency

National Science Foundation

Office of the Federal Coordinator

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Department of Transportation

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Science Foundation

Federal Emergency Management Agency


the National Mitigation Strategy. The
development and adoption of design
guidelines and standards for lifelines will
also be essential to this support.

To facilitate the accomplishment of these
objectives, to speed the transfer of
research and technology advances into
operational practice, and to ensure that
best-available practice is fully communi-
cated, Federal agencies will develop an
information network building on the
National Information Infrastructure.

grams address end-to-end aspects of the
challenge, beginning with risk assess-
ment, including a mitigation emphasis,
paying special attention to socio-eco-
nomic impacts and aspects of the prob-
lem, and addressing the warning/
dissemination needs. Such broad pro-
grams generally require multi-agency
coordination over a substantial period of
years.

Several programs of this type are either
underway or in the planning and prepara-

tion stages. They include:

Comprehensive

Programs Addressing ae National Earthquake Hazards
juction Program

Specific Hazards

In 1977, Congress passed the Earthquake

Hazards Reduction Act, which estab-
lished the National Earthquake Hazards
Reduction Program (NEHRP) as a
long-term, nationwide earthquake risk

Building societal resilience with respect
to specific hazards continues to be an
effective approach toward natural disaster
reduction, especially when these pro-

Review of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)

In response to the continuing earthquake threat and to concerns expressed by Congress, Dr.
John H. Gibbons, Presidential Science Advisor and Director of the Office of Science and
Technology Policy (OSTP), announced in March 1994 that a review would be made under the
auspices of the OSTP to address methods for improving the performance and effectiveness of
the national earthquake program from two perspectives. The first is earthquake research and
development (R&D) performed under the sponsorship of the NEHRP, and the second is the
implementation of knowledge gained from this R&D in reducing earthquake losses. The
review was conducted under the direction of the President's National Science and Technology
Council (NSTC) and was coordinated with the SNDR. The review activities were conducted
by the National Earthquake Strategy Working Group (NESWG), with membership drawn
from over a dozen Federal agencies in addition to the four NEHRP agencies, and was spon-
sored and chaired by OSTP.

The goal of the resulting National Earthquake Loss Reduction Strategy is to mobilize and
integrate the actions of numerous programs in both the public and private sectors into an
aggressive, focused National Earthquake Loss Reduction Program. The Program will
include enhancement of elements of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. All
sectors of society and all levels of government have a fundamental responsibility for and a
self-interest in addressing the threat of earthquakes. Local and state governments, as well as
private firms, must make independent choices to safeguard people and property. The Program
will provide stimuli and information to all sectors of society to help them to make these
choices.

reduction program. In November 1990,
the President approved Public Law
101-614, "The National Earthquake Haz-
ards Reduction Program Reauthorization
Act,” which refined the descriptions of
agency responsibilities, program goals,
and objectives. The purpose of NEHRP
has been to reduce the risks to life and
property from earthquakes in the United
States through the establishment and
maintenance of an effective national
earthquake risk reduction program. This
goal is accomplished through activities
and research aimed at improving under-
standing, characterization, and prediction
of earthquake hazards and vulnerabilities;
improving building codes and land use
practices; reducing risks of earthquakes
through post-earthquake investigations
and education; developing and improving
design and construction techniques;
improving mitigation capacity; and accel-
erating application of research results.
NEHRP supports research on:

* Science of earthquakes.

* Earthquake performance of buildings,
lifelines, and other structures.

+ Earthquake-resistant structural design
standards and practices.

* Societal impacts.

+ Emergency response and recovery.
+ Regional and land use planning.

* Education programs for the public.

Although original legislation named only
FEMA, USGS, the National Institute of
Standards and Technology (NIST), and
the National Science Foundation (NSF) as
participating agencies, a NEHRP review
committee in OSTP resulted in an expan-
sion of the program to include a broader
representation by Federal agencies.

The National Space Weather Program

In response to the increasing vulnerability
of the Nation's technological systems. a
National Space Weather Program
(NSWP) is being developed to improve
space weather forecasts and services.
“Space weather” refers to conditions on
the Sun and in the solar wind, magneto-
sphere, and ionosphere/thermosphere
that can significantly influence the perfor-
mance and reliability of space-borne and
ground-based systems and endanger
human life. Examples include effects,
some potentially catastrophic, on satel-
lites, navigation and communication sys-
tems, electric power distribution, and
people in spacecraft or high-altitude air-
craft.

The goal of the National Space Weather
Program is to fully achieve an active, syn-
ergistic, interagency, “single-minded”
system to provide timely, accurate, and
reliable space environment observations,
specifications, and forecasts in the next
10 years.

The U. S. Weather Research Program

The U.S. Weather Research Program is an
interagency program designed to advance
observing capabilities and fundamental
understanding of weather to:

* Eliminate observational blind spots
with respect to offshore conditions,
humidity, and space and time resolu-
tion (in particular).

* Improve the prediction of high-impact
weather.

¢ Enhance communication of life-pro-
tecting information and warnings.

* Accelerate the application of research
and development.


inertia of modern society, which serves to
reduce flexibility and responsiveness.

Today’s cities, by virtue of their large
scale alone, have become increasingly
complex systems. Interlocking, technol-
ogy- dependent systems of communica-
tion, transportation, banking, and defense,
among others, are therefore increasingly
vulnerable to natural hazards. Often,
many individual structures in a large
urban area may survive a hazardous
event, but the area is rendered dysfunc-
tional by the disruption of one or more of
the five basic lifelines: gas/liquid fuel
supplies, electrical power, communica-
tion, transportation, and water/sewage.
Currently, cities and regions of the United
States are themselves becoming increas-
ingly interlocked and interdependent.
Thus the Northridge earthquake disrupted
delivery of electrical power as far north as
Seattle. Flooding in downtown Chicago
resulting from the breakage of old water
transport infrastructure affected financial
markets nationwide. A major concern
regarding a repeat of the New Madrid
earthquake is the potential disruption of
heating oil supply to the Northeast in the
winter. The threat of solar flares to electri-
cal power supplies is compounded by the
current interlocking of power grids, in
some Cases across national boundaries.
Technological advances that have
changed the structure of today’s society
have also given rise to new, mixed haz-
ards. A tornado striking above-ground
facilities for nuclear waste or floods
releasing toxic substances from chemical
plants into watersheds are examples of
complex disasters that challenge the miti-
gation capabilities of local entities.

Mitigation efforts generally fall to State
and local governments, businesses, and

individuals; as a result, societal attitudes
and perceptions can present a formidable
obstacle to disaster reduction. Few com-
munities have conducted comprehensive
tisk assessments or considered the full
range of available disaster reduction mea-
sures despite their feasibility and cost
effectiveness. Misperceptions of risk, a
failure to learn from past disasters, inade-
quate dispersion of knowledge and
resources, and community planning
divorced from prevention are but a few
of the challenges at the State, local, and
regional levels. Lack of awareness of the
potential threat and indifference to the
consequences, underestimation of the risk
to the community, business, or individual,
and overreliance on technology, luck, or
personal ability to cope with a “hypotheti-
cal” disaster can precipitate an apathetic
or inactive response to the threat of natu-
ral disasters on the part of State and local
officials as well as individuals. As a
result, scarce local funds are not commit-
ted to hazard reduction.

Fundamentally new approaches to natural
disaster reduction are called for to address
these challenges. Attention must shift
from reaction to anticipation on the basis
of long-range risk assessment and com-
prehensive, coordinated communitywide
planning and action. After-the-fact retro-
fits must give way to societal planning
and ways of doing business that build
resilience to natural hazards from the
beginning and from the ground up. To
achieve these ends, Federal, State, and
local governments, as well as the private
sector and the general public, must make
the commitment to create a more resilient
and sustainable society through assess-
ment, mitigation, and preparedness.

External Input

Partnerships among Federal, State, and
local governments and the private sector
are essential to successful natural disaster
reduction. Assessment efforts need such
partnerships, both to develop accurate
estimates of vulnerability and impact and
to ensure that those who will be affected
by natural disasters will contribute to the
needed response. Mitigation is necessar-
ily the sum of many individual actions.
Because most of the assets at risk are non-
Federal, most of the needed actions reside
in these other sectors. Because warnings
and dissemination necessarily involve
both the giving and the receiving of infor-
mation, partnership is therefore funda-
mental.

The agencies of the SNDR, through
expanded and enhanced coordination,
communication, information systems,
education, research, and public policy
options, are working to impact the policy
environments of local jurisdictions across
the Nation and throughout the world. Fed-
eral-State-academia-industry linkages
will deepen our understanding of the
social, technical, administrative. politi-
cal, legal, and economic forces that shape
the policy environments in each jurisdic-
tion. With this deeper understanding,
decisionmakers will be able to balance
these forces, which change with time,
place, and circumstances, and to seize
windows of opportunity to adopt policies
and professional practices that will bene-
fit their community. The kinds of changes
that are envisioned include:

* New and improved preventive mecha-
nisms and techniques.

+ New and cost-effective remedial mea-
sures.

+ Interdisciplinary approaches to mitiga-
tion, which integrate all available
knowledge and benefit from the con-
tinuous flow of new knowledge from
ongoing research and the interaction of
researchers and practitioners.

+ Efficient wansfer of knowledge and
technology among and between Fed-
eral, State, academic, industrial, and
public partners across the United
States with counterparts worldwide.

Projects involving the private sector are
an integral part of the activities of many
SNDR agencies. Hazard information cen-
ters, educational forums, advisory partici-
pation of the user community, Federal
assistance programs, preparedness simu-
lation exercises, and publication and dis-
semination of resource materials are
essential to involve the private sector and
local decisionmakers in disaster reduc-
tion. Reducing losses caused by natural
hazards requires that hazard information,
risk assessments, and warnings be trans-
ferred to the user community, including
various State and local agencies, private
industry, and the public, and that the user
community be actively involved in the
creation and implementation of strategies
for mitigation. The National Mitigation
Strategy will not only solidify existing
partnership arrangements with constituen-
cies but, more importantly, will also forge
new partnerships beyond the traditional
allies in the emergency management com-
munity. Working partnerships with archi-
tects, lenders, insurers, economic


Committee on Environment and Natural Resources

D. James Baker

Co-Chair

National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration

Rosina Bierbaum (Act)
White House Co-Chair

Robert Huggett
Co-Chair
Environmental Protection Agency

Christine Ervin
Co-Chair
Department of Energy

H. Ronald Pullium
Department of the interior

William Townsend
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration

Thomas Lovejoy
Smithsonian Institute

Joseph Bordogna
National Science Foundation

Kathie Woteki
Department of Agriculture

TJ. Glauthier
Office of Management and Budget

Patricia Beneke
Department of the Interior

Kenneth Olden
National Institute of
Environmental Health Sciences

Dan Tarullo
National Economic Council

Joseph Canny
Department of Transportation

Michael Stegman
Department of Housing and
Urban Development

Anna Johnson-Winegar
Department of Defense

Eileen B. Claussen
Department of State

Robert Volland
Federal Emergency
Management Agency

Ronald Ritschard
Tennesee Valley Authority

Skip Wright
Office of the Coordinator for
Meteorology

Linda Zall
Central Intelligence Agency

Subcommittees

Air Quality
Martha Krebs (DOE)
Dan Albritton (NOAA)
Mary Nichols (EPA)

Biodiversity and Ecosystem
Dynamics

Tom Lovejoy (SI)

Ron Pullium (Dol)

Global Change
Bob Coreill (NSF)
Robert Harriss (NASA)

Natural Disaster Reduction
Bill Hooke (NOAA)
Rober Hamilton (USGS)
Robert Volland (FEMA)

Resource Use and
Management

Jerry Sesco (USDA)

Gary Hill (USGS)

Toxics Substances/Solid and
Hazardous Waste

Bob Huggett (EPA)

Kenneth Olden (NIEHS)

Thomas Grumbly (DOE)

Sherri Goodman (DOD)

Water Resources

Robert Hirsch (USGS)
Don Scavia (NOAA)
Robert Perciasepe (EPA)

Risk Assessment
Lynn Goldman (EPA)
George Lucier (NIEHS)

Socioeconomic Science
Vacant

Taskforce on Observation
and Data Management
William Townsend (NASA)

Robert Winokur (NOAA)


U.S. Department of Agriculture
U.S. Forest Service

U.S. Department of the Interior
Bureau of Land Management
Bureau of Indian Affairs

Fish and Wildlife Service

National Park Service

Mission:

These Federal agencies, in cooperation with other Federal, State, county, and municipal
Cooperators, provide fire protection for life, property, and natural resources. They maintain
lookouts, aerial detection, and fire prevention patrols, engines, crews, helicopters, dis-
patchers, fire suppression overhead, and firefighting equipment. Technical assistance in
fire behavior, smoke management, fuels management, prescribed fire, fire research, infra-
red systems, equipment development, fire training and prevention is also available. The
Forest Service has the lead, with assistance and support from the other agencies, for Emer-
gency Support Function 4—Firefighting—in the National Response Plan and for provid-
ing cooperative fire protection to the 50 States, and 6 Territories and Commonwealths.

Activities:
* Maintains the National Interagency Coordination Center in Boise, Idaho, for rapid

deployment and logistical support of personnel, aircraft, and equipment for responding
to wildfires and other disasters.

* Maintains 12 strategic geographic area coordination centers to provide the equipment,
personnel, and aircraft mobilization needs for rapid deployment and logistical support
in responding to wildfires and other disasters.

* Develops national training standards and qualifications programs in the Incident Com-
mand System to assure an interagency approach in which Federal, State, and local Ppart-
ners use the same standards and qualifications for wildfire suppression and disaster
response.

* Develops and maintains national incident management teams to respond to wildfires or
other natural disasters and provides skills in operations, planning, finance, logistics,
and command functions as needed.

* Develops prescribed fire programs as a tool to accomplish mission objectives such as
reduction of hazardous fuels and enhancement and maintenance of natural resources.
This fire-use program is implemented under strict guidelines and management-
approved burning plans.

Natural Resources Conservation Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture

Mission:

The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Emergency Watershed Protection
Program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture helps individuals, organizations, and State
and local governments to conserve and wisely use natural resources. NRCS may provide
technical and financial assistance whenever fire, flood, or other natural disasters cause
sudden damage in a watershed. To safeguard lives and property. as authorized by the Sec-
retary of Agriculture, NRCS can assist local sponsors with emergency measures to retard
runoff and reduce erosion and sedimentation. Frequently used emergency measures
include vegetative cover, gully control, stream bank Protection devices. debris and sedi-
ment removal, and repair of dams, dikes, and other water control structures,

Activities:
+ Responds immediately in cooperation with other Federal and local agencies to provide
the technical support to assess damages and identify needed actions. If life or Property

is threatened, provides remedial action in | or 2 days. Assistance can continue until all
hazards are controlled.

* Uses contract easements for reconstituting wetlands on flood-damaged agricultural
lands.

* Uses contract easements in specific sites that are ecologically sensitive and should be
conserved as habitats for endangered species.

41


The purpose of this report is to highlight ongoing Federal research efforts in this sci-
ence and technology (S&T) field and to identify new and promising areas where
there might be gaps in Federal support. The report is intended for internal planning
purposes within the Federal agencies and as a mechanism to convey to the S&T
community the types of research and research priorities being sponsored and consid-
ered by the Federal agencies. The Administration is committed to a broad range of
high-priority investments (including science and technology), as well as to deficit
reduction, and to a smaller, more efficient Federal Government. These commit-
ments have created a very challenging budget environment—requiring difficult
decisions and a well-thought-out strategy to ensure the best return for the Nation’s
taxpayers. As part of this strategy, this document does not represent the final deter-
minant in an overall Administration budget decisionmaking process. The research
programs presented in this report will have to compete for resources against many
other high-priority Federal programs. If these programs compete successfully, they
will be reflected in future Administration budgets.

About the National Science and Technology Council

President Clinton established the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC)
by Executive Order on November 23, 1993. This Cabinet-level council is the prin-
cipal means for the President to coordinate science, space, and technology policies
across the Federal Government. The NSTC acts as a “virtual” agency for science
and technology to coordinate the diverse parts of the Federal research and develop-
ment enterprise. The NSTC is chaired by the President. Membership consists of the
Vice President, the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, Cabinet
Secretaries and Agency Heads with significant science and technology responsibili-
ties, and other top White House officials.

An important objective of the NSTC is the establishment of clear national goals for
Federal science and technology investments in areas ranging from information tech-
nologies and health research to improving transportation systems and strengthening
fundamental research. The Council prepares research and development strategies
that are coordinated across Federal agencies to form an investment package that is
aimed at accomplishing multiple national goals.

To obtain additional information regarding the NSTC, please contact the NSTC Sec-
retariat at 202-456-6100.

About the Office of Science and Technology Policy

The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was established by the
National Science and Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976. OSTP’s
responsibilities include advising the President on policy formulation and budget
development on all questions in which science and technology are important ele-
ments; articulating the President's science and technology policies and programs;
and fostering strong partnerships among Federal, State, and local governments, and
the scientific communities in industry and academia.

To obtain additional information regarding OSTP, please contact the OSTP Admin-
istrative Office at 202-395-7347.

THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON

December 10, 1996

Dear Colleague:

Natural disasters cause fatalities and inflict human suffering. In addition, they destroy
property, diminish economic productivity, negatively impact the environment, and cause
lingering disruptions of entire communities. Between August 1992 and December 1995, the
United States experienced structural losses amounting. on average. to approximately one billion
dollars a week due to natural disasters. Such expenditures, which divert assets from much
needed investment in our country’s future, can and should be reduced.

Reducing losses from natural disasters is one of the Administration's top priorities for
science and technology. Natural disasters jeopardize sustainable development. Inaction today
regarding natural hazards compromises safety, economic growth, and environmental quality for
generations to come. However, forward-looking decision making today regarding land use. the
direction and nature of economic development, and needed investment in societal infrastructure
and capital facilities can improve the prospects and opportunities afforded to future generations.

I am pleased to introduce the NSTC’s Natural Disaster Reduction: A Plan for the Nation,
which provides an interagency approach for the strategic coordination and advancement of
Programs, strategies, and research to reduce the social, environmental, and economic costs of
natural hazards. This document focuses on creating a sustainable society resilient to natural
hazards through the establishment of anticipatory practices with regard to risk assessment,
mitigation, and warning systems. Natural Disaster Reduction: A Plan for the Nation lays the
groundwork for a comprehensive set of Federal R&D policies to address this critical issue.

Sincerely.

Si

Assisttnto the President
for
Science and Technology


cesses and failures), resource directories,
and other nonspatial metadata. One
important goal of such a network would
be to aid community development of miti-
gation plans. Rapidly improving artificial

intelligence expert system software and
new graphics capabilities would aid in
this effort. Modules would include gen-
eral hazard information and “how-to”
information.

Program Objectives And Plans

Achieving a sustainable society, resilient
to natural hazards, implies not only pro-
tection of life and property but also con-
tinued, uninterrupted community and
regional functionality, including both nat-
ural and managed ecosystems. The
United States has taken important initia~
tives toward these objectives in both a
domestic and an international context.

National Mitigation Strategy (see box).
The National Mitigation Strategy has two
components: by the year 2020, (1) ro sub-
stantially increase public awareness of
natural hazard risk so that the public
demands safer communities in which to
live and work; and, (2) to significantly
reduce the risk of loss of life, injuries,
economic costs, and destruction of natural
and cultural resources that result from

Another domestic initiative of consider-
able size and scope—and one that holds
broad implications for natural disaster

tion activities within the Departments of
Defense and Transportation. The mod-
ernization addresses a broad range of

reduction—is the multibillion-dollar
modernization and associated restructur-
ing of the National Weather Service
(Department of Commerce/NOAA) and
complementary technology moderniza-

hydrometeorological hazards (from
drought to floods to tornadoes) that are
responsible for 85 percent of the Presi-
dentially declared disasters in the United
States.

National Weather Service Modernization

The National Weather Service is nearing completion of a modernization that includes dey

ment of Proven observational, information processing, and communications teethog od
the establishment of an associated cost-effective operational structure. New Doppler Weather
tadar, high-resolution satellite instruments, automated surface observations, and interactive
information processing systems are ushering in radical improvements at the local forecast
level. These developments are supported by greatly enhanced numerical weather prediction,
enabled by improved understanding of atmospheric processes and by a new generation of
computers. The modemization and associated restructuring will ensure that major advances in
our ability to observe and understand the atmosphere are applied to the practical problems of

Domestically, FEMA led two dozen Fed-

eral agencies in the development of a natural hazards.

The National Mitigation Strategy

‘The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has developed a National Mitigation
Strategy involving its Federal agency partners, the Congress, State and local governments,
academia, the private sector, and individual citizens. The strategy is intended to be a living,
flexible conceptual approach to mitigation. It proposes initiatives in (1) hazard identification
and risk assessment, (2) applied research and technology transfer, (3) public awareness, train-
ing, and education, (4) incentives and resources. and (5) leadership and coordination to fur-
ther the goal of reducing risk to life and property from natural hazard events. Finally, the
strategy includes provisions for evaluation not just of the achievement of strategic objectives
but of mitigation itself.

‘The United States already has in place a multi-agency Federal Response Plan that coordinates
the actions of 26 Federal agencies in the event of natural disasters. An interagency framework
will also be used in developing the National Mitigation Strategy to facilitate integrating disas-
ter reduction measures into policy formulation and regulation rather than adding them onto
established ways of doing business as an afterthought.

Developing and implementing the National Mitigation Strategy requires both the solidifica-
tion of existing partnership arrangements with constituencies and the forging of new partner-
ships beyond the traditional emergency management community. Working with architects.
lenders, insurers, economic development agencies, builders, and others will assure that all
possible incentives and activities that encourage individuals, business, and local and State
governments to implement mitigation strategies have been identified and explored. FEMA
has conducted a series of mitigation forums throughout the country to solicit advice and coun-
sel on how best to gain public acceptance and support for mitigation. These forums also have
provided an opportunity to promote mitigation at the State and local levels, where effective
mitigation must be implemented.

i

providing weather and hydrologic services to the Nation.

In addition, steps are being taken to build
on U.S. capabilities to provide all-hazards
warnings. Programs will coordinate
development of warnings to ensure that
critical environmental information vital to
response actions reaches local decision-
makers and the public in a timely, consis-
tent, and effective manner; Federal, State,
and local efforts will be fully coordinated;
and new technologies will be quickly
incorporated into operations as they
become available. A program to modern-
ize, upgrade, and expand the NOAA
Weather Radio (NWR) and the NOAA
Weather Wire Service into all-hazards
warning networks will incorporate geo-
physical and post-event information

(e.g., location of shelters and other emer-
gency services) as well as information on

technological hazards provided by State
and local officials.

Internationally, the United States is partic-
ipating in the United Nations Interna-
tional Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction (see box below). intended to
ensure that, by the year 2000, all coun-
tries, as part of their plans to achieve sus-
tainable development, will have in place:

+ Comprehensive national assessments
of risks posed by natural hazards
(these assessments to be taken into
account in development plans).

* Mitigation plans at national and local

levels involving long-term prevention
and preparedness measures and com-
munity awareness.


The results of this program will have
broad-reaching impact. Optimal decision-
making in agriculture, construction,
energy, transportation, and water-
resources management must be based on
reliable predictions of extreme weather
phenomena. Community infrastructure is
quite vulnerable to weather hazards. The
more these hazards are understood and
made predictable, the better the risk
assessments and mitigation strategies for
dealing with them will be.

The USWRP supports the scientific basis
for integrated ecosystem management by
providing better predictions of natural
change; development of science policy

tools by providing predictive input to risk
assessments and mitigation strategies and
by developing warning dissemination sys-
tems; and environmental technology
through research and development on
new observing technologies.

An implementation plan sent to Congress
in January 1994 (requested in NOAA's
Authorization Act for FY 1993) describes
the science and applications priorities,
critical activities and projected budgets
for the next 10 years, an outline of agency
roles and responsibilities, and linkages to
other national programs. There are no
new funds yet associated with this pro-
gram.

Wildland Fire Management and Protection

The U.S. Forest Service in the Department of Agriculture and the Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bureau of Indian Affairs in
the Department of the Interior provide fire protection for life, property, and natural resources
on an interagency and intergovernmental basis in cooperation with State, local, and Tribal
governments. The five agencies maintain protection organizations consisting of lookouts, aer-
jal detection and fire prevention patrols, engines, crews, helicopters, dispatchers, fire suppres-
sion overhead, and firefighting equipment. Technical assistance is provided in fire behavior,
smoke management, fuels management, prescribed fire, fire research, infrared systems,
equipment development, fire training, and prevention. The Forest Service also provides coop-
erative fire protection assistance to the States, Territories and Commonwealths, and other

Federal agencies through cooperative agreements. In addition, the Department of Defense

manages 25 million acres and is currently working to develop standard wildfire policies and

procedures consistent with those of other Federal agencies. The five agencies

* Operate a three-tier interagency dispatch and resource coordination system to provide the
equipment, personnel, aircraft mobilization, and information needs for rapid deployment
and logistical support to wildfires and other disasters. The system includes 12 geographic
area coordination centers and the National Interagency Coordination Center in Boise,
Idaho.

+ Develop national training standards and qualifications programs in the Incident Command
System to assure an interagency approach with Federal, State, and local partners using the
same standards and qualifications for wildfire suppression and disaster response.

* Develop and maintain national interagency incident management teams to respond to
wildfires or other natural disasters and provide skills in operations, planning, finance,
logistics, and command functions as needed.

+ Develop and implement prescribed fire programs as a tool to accomplish mission objec-
tives such as reduction of hazardous levels of brush, grasses, and other fuels.

20

National Interagency Wildland Fire
Mitigation Activities

One of the primary risk areas in fire man-
agement is in the wildland/urban inter-
face. An important task is to provide
mitigation through zoning and fuels man-
agement. Much of this responsibility must

occur at the county and city level. The
need for increased partnerships in this
area is addressed in “Federal Wildland
Fire Management Policy and Program
Review” (December 1995). This report
deals with wildfire hazard mitigation and
ecosystem health through broader use of
fire as a management tool.

Agency Roles and Activities

The SNDR is made up of 19 member
agencies and departments, cooperating to
increase the overall effectiveness and pro-
ductivity of U.S. Federal agency pro-
grams for reducing deaths, injuries, and
economic and social disruptions from nat-
ural hazards. The scope of Federal pro-
grams represented on the SNDR encom-
passes all types of natural hazards and
agency activities ranging from basic

research to emergency services response.
The agencies of the SNDR believe that,
through expanded and enhanced coordi-
nation, communication, information sys-
tems, education, research, and public
policy options, we can have a direct, posi-
tive impact on the resiliency of U.S. soci-
ety with respect to natural hazards. Spe-
cific agency activities and services toward
this end are provided in the Appendix.

Constraints and Challenges

To achieve a resilient society in the face
of natural hazards means overcoming sig-
nificant societal inertia. The entire U.S.
posture toward natural disasters must be
reworked in the face of government, busi-
ness and individual decisions that each
day create new vulnerabilities. The con-
tinued upward spiral of the costs of natu-
ral disasters in the United States will be
broken only by a strategy that addresses
the full range of obstacles to natural disas-
ter reduction. With the growth in popula-
tion and the globalization of the economy
and trade, the value of property and capi-
tal assets at risk in the United States and

21

around the world is constantly increasing.
As a consequence, more assets than ever
are in harm's way in a given event. The
continued location of these assets at haz-
ardous sites and in inadequate shelter fur-
ther raises the possible losses. Decisions
regarding the siting of valuable, fragile,
long-range capital investment are typi-
cally made with little or no regard for nat-
ural hazards. Furthermore, this problem is
compounded when these assets are shel-
tered in structures that are inadequately
engineered to survive a hazardous event.
Decisions are rendered more difficult still
by the complexity, interdependence, and