2

General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

Energy Conservation Standards for

General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector 

Lamps

ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

Building Technologies Program

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

U.S. Department of Energy

March 10-11, 2008

National Impact Analysis 

ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagram 

Framework 

Document ANOPR NOPR Final 

Rule 

National 

Impact 

Analysis 

Energy Use 

Characterization 

Market and 

Technology 

Assessment 

Screening 

Analysis 

Engineering 

Analysis 

Product Price 

Determination 

Life-Cycle 

Cost and 

Payback 

Period Analysis 

Shipments 

Analysis 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Purpose 

 Shipments Analysis 

• To estimate lamp shipments and the product mix of the stock over time (2012-

2042) in the base case and standards case. 

 National Impact Analysis 

• To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from GSFL and IRL efficacy 

standards at different levels. 

• To estimate the national economic impact on the nation (or the Net Present 

Value (NPV)) from GSFL and IRL efficacy standards at different levels. 

3 

4 

National Impact Analysis 

Fluorescent Base-Case Shipment Methodology 

# of Lamps in the 

Inventory in 2011 

Extrapolated 

Shipments to 2011 

# of Systems in the 

Inventory in 2011 

Total Lumens in 

2011 

Lumen Demand System Age 

Distribution 

NEMA Historical 

Shipments 

(2001-2005) 

Average Lamp 

Lifetime in 2011 

Lamps per 

System 

Ballast 

Shipment 

Census Data 

Characteristic 

Lamp and 

Ballast Lifetimes 

Market Shares of 

the Lamp and 

Ballast Inventory in 

2011 

Market Shares of 

Lamp and Ballast 

Shipments in 2012-

2042 

Lamp 

Replacement 

Shipments 

Ballast 

Replacement 

Shipments 

New 

Construction 

Shipments 

Total Shipments (2012-2042) 

Lumen Growth Rate 

• Product Mix of Shipments 

• Product Mix of Inventory 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

2011 Fluorescent Lamp Stocks 

 NEMA provided data from 2001 to 2005 for fluorescent lamp shipments 

 DOE assumes that NEMA shipments represent 90% of total fluorescent lamp 

shipments 

 2011 lamp stocks calculated from lamp average lifetimes determined by 

assumed market shares of lamp inventory in 2011 

Lamp Type Lamp Stock 

(millions) 

4-foot T8 medium bipin 1,670 

4-foot T12 medium bipin 626 

8-foot T8 single pin slimline 28 

8-foot T12 single pin slimline 72 

8-foot T8 recessed double contact HO 1 

8-foot T12 recessed double contact HO 63 

5 

National Impact Analysis 

Base-Case Shipment Forecast Assumptions: 

4-foot Medium Bipin 

 New Construction: Exponential growth of total lumens serviced by 

4-foot medium bipin lamps and 8-foot single pin slimline lamps 

• 1.6% annual growth rate obtained from growth in CBECS commercial building 

floor space 

• All new construction results in the purchase of 4-foot T8 lamp-and-ballast 

systems 

 Ballast Replacement: 14 year ballast service lifetime 

• No new 4-foot T12 MBP magnetic ballast purchases after 2009 (2000 Ballast 

Rulemaking) 

• As 4-foot T8, 4-foot T12, and some 8-foot T12 SP slimline ballasts retire, new 

4-foot T8 lamp-and-ballast systems are purchased as system replacements 

 Currently, the model assumes commercial operating hours and 

electricity prices 

6 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Base-Case Shipment Forecast Assumptions: 

8-foot SP Slimline 

 No new construction modeled 

• Historical shipments indicate a decline in total 8-foot SP slimline shipments 

 Ballast Replacement: 14 year ballast service lifetime 

• No new 8-foot T12 SP slimline magnetic ballast purchases after 2009 (2000 

Ballast Rulemaking) 

• As 8-foot T12 SP slimline ballasts retire, 10% of those systems are replaced 

with 8-foot T8 SP slimline lamp-and-ballast systems and 90% are replaced 

with two 4-foot T8 MBP lamp-and-ballast systems 

• As 8-foot T8 SP slimline ballast retire, new 8-foot T8 SP slimline lamp-andballast systems are purchased as system replacements 

 Currently, the model assumes commercial operating hours and 

electricity prices 

7 

National Impact Analysis 

Base-Case Shipment Forecast Assumptions: 

8-foot RDC High Output 

 No new construction modeled 

• Historical shipments indicate relatively flat 8-foot RDC HO shipments 

• All new construction assumed to be serviced by other technologies (e.g., T5) 

 Initial (2012) stock of only T12 lamps are modeled 

• T8 lamps accounted for less than 2% of total 8-foot RDC HO shipments in 

2005 

 Ballast Replacement: 10 year ballast service lifetime 

• As 8-foot T12 RDC HO ballasts retire, new electronic 8-foot T12 RDC HO 

lamp-and-ballast systems are purchased as system replacements 

 Currently, the model assumes industrial operating hours and 

electricity prices 

8 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Base-Case Market-Share Matrices 

 Two base-case market share (product mix) inputs for each lamp 

type: 

• Product mix of the lamp and ballast inventory in 2011 

• Product mix of new system shipments after from 2012 to 2042 

 The shipment model assumes that when a lamp fails it is replaced 

with the same lamp 

 Key Inputs into the Matrices: 

• Lamp wattage distributions (e.g., 32W, 30W, 28W, 25W) 

• Lamp efficacy distributions (CSLs) 

• Ballast factor distributions (e.g., 0.88, 0.78, 0.75) 

• Correlation of the above properties to obtain system distributions 

9 

National Impact Analysis 

4-foot Medium Bipin Base-Case Market Share Matrix Inputs 

4-foot T8 MBP Electronic Systems 

System 

Characteristic 

2012 

Shipment 

Distribution 

2042 

Shipment 

Distribution 

Lamp 

Wattage 

32W 90% 60% 

30W 4% 15% 

28W 6% 17% 

25W 0% 8% 

Lamp 

Efficacy 

CSL2 43% 12% 

CSL3 29% 10% 

CSL4 15% 35% 

CSL5 13% 43% 

Ballast 

Factor 

0.88 90% 54% 

0.78 5% 33% 

0.75 5% 13% 

4-foot T12 MBP Magnetic 

Systems 

System 

Characteristic 

2012 

Inventory 

Distribution 

Lamp 

Wattage 

40W 31% 

34W 69% 

Lamp 

Efficacy 

CSL0 56% 

CSL1 22% 

CSL2 14% 

CSL3 8% 

Complete 4-foot MBP basecase market share matrices 

are presented in Tables 9.3.3 

and 9.3.4 in Chapter 9 of the 

ANOPR TSD. 

10 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Example Base-Case Market Share Matrix: 4-foot T8 MBP 

CSL Lamp 

Efficacy 

Lamp 

Wattage 

Lamp 

Lifetime 

System 

Input 

Power 

Installed 

Lamp Price 

Mix of Systems 

Purchased in 

2012 and 

Earlier 

Mix of 

Systems 

Purchased in 

2042 

lm/W W hrs W $ % % 

BF 

0.88 

2 86.2 32.5 20,000 87.5 3.93 43 8 

3 90.8 32.5 20,000 87.5 4.96 29 10 

4 92.3 32.5 24,000 87.5 5.10 11 14 

4 95.0 30.0 18,000 80.5 5.39 0 3 

5 95.4 32.5 24,000 87.5 5.62 7 12 

5 97.3 28.0 18,000 71.1 5.19 0 3 

5 96.0 25.0 24,000 66.8 6.64 0 4 

0.78 

2 86.2 32.5 20,000 78.5 3.93 0 4 

3 90.8 32.5 20,000 78.5 4.96 0 0 

4 92.3 32.5 24,000 78.5 5.10 0 6 

4 95.0 30.0 18,000 72.4 5.39 2 6 

5 95.4 32.5 24,000 78.5 5.62 0 6 

5 97.3 28.0 18,000 63.3 5.19 3 7 

5 96.0 25.0 24,000 58.1 6.64 0 4 

0.75 

2 86.2 32.5 20,000 75.9 3.93 0 0 

3 90.8 32.5 20,000 75.9 4.96 0 0 

4 92.3 32.5 24,000 75.9 5.10 0 0 

4 95.0 30.0 18,000 70.0 5.39 2 6 

5 95.4 32.5 24,000 75.9 5.62 0 0 

5 97.3 28.0 18,000 60.9 5.19 3 7 

5 96.0 25.0 24,000 55.5 6.64 0 0 

Total 100 100 

11 

National Impact Analysis 

8-foot SP Slimline Base-Case Market Share Matrix Inputs 

CSL5 8% 53% 

CSL4 48% 27% 

CSL3 44% 20% 

Lamp 

Efficacy 

8-foot T12 SP Slimline Magnetic 

Systems 

8-foot T8 SP Slimline Electronic Systems 

System 2012 2042 

Characteristic System 2012 

Distribution 

Shipment Shipment 

Characteristic Inventory 

Distribution 

Distribution 

59W 100% 70% 

Lamp Lamp 75W 63% 57W 0% 15% Wattage Wattage 60W 37% 55W 0% 15% 

0.88 70% 40% 

Ballast 0.85 15% 33% Factor 

0.78 15% 27% 

CSL1 41% 

CSL3 8%

CSL2 19% 

CSL0 32% 

Lamp 

Efficacy 

Complete 8-foot SP slimline 

base-case market share matrices 

are presented in Tables 9.3.5 and 

9.3.6 in Chapter 9 of the ANOPR 

TSD. 12 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

8-foot RDC HO Base-Case Market Share Matrix Inputs 

8-foot T12 RDC High Output Electronic 

Systems 

System 

Characteristic 

2012 

Shipment 

Distribution 

2042 

Shipment 

Distribution 

Lamp 

Wattage 

110W 60% 34% 

95W 40% 66% 

Lamp 

Efficacy 

CSL0 54% 15% 

CSL1 21% 25% 

CSL3 7% 21% 

CSL3 18% 39% 

Ballast 

Factor 

0.90 33% 33% 

0.89 33% 35% 

0.88 34% 32% 

Complete 8-foot RDC HO 

base-case market share 

matrices are presented in 

Table 9.3.8 in Chapter 9 of 

the ANOPR TSD. 

13 

National Impact Analysis 

Base-Case Shipment Results: 4-foot Medium Bipin 

New Construction 

7% 1.0 

Lamp 

Replacement 

63%

0.9 

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 

Year 

4-foot T8 MBP 

4-foot T12 MBP 

Shipments (billions) 0.8 

0.7 Ballast 

Replacement 

30% 

0.6 

0.5 

0.4 

0.3 

0.2 

0.1 

0.0 

 4-foot T8 MBP shipments grow due to new construction and 

retrofitting of 4-foot T12 and 8-foot T12 SP Slimline systems 

 2000 Ballast Rule effectively eliminates the sale of 4-foot T12 MBP 

magnetic ballasts causing T12 lamp shipments to reach zero by 

2022 

14 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

15 

National Impact Analysis 

Base-Case Shipment Results: 8-foot SP Slimline 

Ballast 

Replacement 

22% 

Lamp 

Replacement 

78% 

0.00 

0.01 

0.02 

0.03 

0.04 

0.05 

0.06 

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 

Year 

Ship

ments (billions) 

8-foot T8 SP 

8-foot T12 SP 

 8-foot T8 SP slimline shipments show slight growth due to the 

retrofitting of some 8-foot T12 SP slimline systems 

 2000 Ballast Rule effectively eliminates the sale of 8-foot T12 SP 

magnetic ballasts causing T12 lamp shipments to reach zero by 

2022 

16 

National Impact Analysis 

Base-Case Shipment Results: 8-foot RDC High Output 

Ballast 

Replacement 

20% 

Lamp 

Replacement 

80% 0.00 

0.01 

0.01 

0.02 

0.02 

0.03 

0.03 

0.04 

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 

Year 

Shipments (billions) 

8-foot T8 RDC HO 

8-foot T12 RDC HO 

 8-foot T12 RDC HO shipments are projected to be flat due to 

penetration of other technologies 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

17 

National Impact Analysis 

Fluorescent Standards-Case Shipment Methodology 

# of Lamps in the 

Inventory in 2011 

Extrapolated 

Shipments to 2011 

# of Systems in the 

Inventory in 2011 

Total Lumens in 

2011 

Lumen Demand System Age 

Distribution 

NEMA Historical 

Shipments 

(2001-2005) 

Average Lamp 

Lifetime in 2011 

Lamps per 

System 

Ballast 

Shipment 

Census Data 

Characteristic 

Lamp and 

Ballast 

Lifetimes 

Market Shares of 

the Lamp and 

Ballast Inventory in 

2011 

Standards-Case 

Market Shares of 

Lamp and Ballast 

Shipments in 2012-

2042 

Lumen Growth Rate 

• Product Mix of Shipments 

• Product Mix of Inventory 

Retrofit Rate 

Lamp 

Replacement 

Shipments 

Ballast 

Replacement 

Shipments 

New 

Construction 

Shipments 

Total Shipments 

Retrofit 

Shipments 

National Impact Analysis 

Fluorescent Standards-Case Shipment Methodology 

 Develop standards-case market-share matrices 

• Use shipment scenarios to characterize how consumers will change purchase 

decisions with standards 

• Standards-case market share matrices show movement to higher efficacy 

lamps and alternate BF ballasts 

• Separate standards-case market-share matrices for lamp replacements on 

existing ballasts and for new system purchases 

 Incorporate standards-induced retrofits 

• Assumes that the increased first-cost of higher-efficacy 4-foot T12 MBP and 

8-foot T12 SP lamps will result in additional voluntary retrofits in the standards 

case 

• Mandatory T12 ballast retrofits when no standard-compliant T12 lamps are 

available 

 Recalculate shipments and stock product mixes 

18 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Fluorescent Standards-Case Shipment Scenarios 

 Scenarios consider lamp price, system lumen output, and system 

energy consumption as drivers for consumer purchases 

 Roll-up Scenario – “lower bound of energy savings” 

• Only consumers purchasing below the candidate standard level analyzed, 

change purchase decisions in the standards case. 

• These consumers purchase the lowest first cost lamp option 

 Shift Scenario – “upper bound of energy savings” 

• All consumers reevaluate their lamp and ballast purchase decisions 

• Consumers currently purchasing the lowest efficacy option, purchase the 

lowest first cost standards compliant lamp option 

• All other consumers purchase the lowest first-cost, energy-saving option 

19 

National Impact Analysis 

Fluorescent Lamp Standards-Case Retrofits 

 Increased Voluntary Magnetic T12 Ballast Retrofit at all CSLs 

• Current trends indicate that consumers are retrofitting their existing 4-foot T12 

MBP and 8-foot T12 SP slimline magnetic systems and are replacing them 

with the corresponding more cost-effective T8 electronic systems 

Increased 

efficacy 

standard 

Increased 

T12 lamp 

price 

Increased 

T12 

retrofits 

• Increasing retrofit rate of 4-foot T12 MBP and 8-foot T12 SP systems in the 

standards case at each CSL 

CSL Retrofit Rate (% remaining stock per year) 

1 10% 

2 20% 

3 30% 

4 40% 

5 50% 

 Mandatory T12 Ballast Retrofit 

• At CSL4 and CSL5, no T12 lamps are standards-compliant. Therefore, upon 

T12 lamp failure, the entire T12 lamp-and-ballast system is retrofitted and 

replaced with a T8 system. 20 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Fluorescent Shipment Forecasts 

DOE invites comment on the methodology and data sources used to 

estimate initial lamps stocks in 2011. (Issue #11) 

DOE invites comment on the fluorescent base-case and standardscase market share matrices. (Issue #10, Issue #12) 

DOE invites comment on the fluorescent base-case shipment 

forecasts. (Issue #11) 

DOE invites comment on appropriate standards-case voluntary 

magnetic T12 ballast retrofit rates for the 4-foot MBP and 8-foot SP 

slimline. (Issue #11) 

DOE invites comment on the shipment scenarios analyzed and other 

scenarios DOE should analyze for GSFL. (Issue #12) 

21 

22 

National Impact Analysis 

Incandescent Reflector Lamp Base-Case Shipment 

Methodology 

Lamps in the 

Inventory in 2011 

Extrapolated 

Shipments to 2011 

NEMA Historical 

Shipments 

(2001-2005) 

Market Shares of 

the Lamp Inventory 

in 2011 

Market Shares of 

the Lamp Inventory 

in 2012-2042 

Lamp 

Replacement 

Shipments 

New 

Construction 

Shipments 

Total Shipments 

Rate of New Construction 

• Product Mix of Shipments 

• Product Mix of Inventory 

# of Lamps in the 

Inventory in 2012-

2042 

Historical 

Shipments of 

Covered Lamps by 

Sector 

Emerging Technologies 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Base-Case Shipments Forecasts: IRL 

2011 Lamp Stock 

 NEMA data provides historical shipments for non-halogen and 

halogen IRL 

 Assumptions: 

• NEMA shipments represent 85% of total IRL shipments 

• DOE estimates that EISA 2007 exempts approximately 60% of nonhalogen IRL 

• Non-halogen shipments: 33 percent serve the commercial sector, 67 

percent serve the residential sector 

• Halogen shipments: 60 percent serve the commercial sector, 40 

percent serve the residential sector 

 Installed stock of covered IRL in 2011 

• Residential sector: 297 million lamps 

• Commercial sector: 77 million lamps 

23 

National Impact Analysis 

IRL Stock Projection Assumptions 

 New Construction: Exponential growth in IRL sockets 

• Historical annual growth rate of IRL stock is estimated to be 8-10%. 

However, this growth may be unsustainable. 

• DOE uses building floor space growth to estimate new construction 

growth 

– 1.3% sockets/year in the residential sector (RECS building floor 

space) 

– 1.6% sockets/year in the commercial sector (CBECS building 

floor space) 

 DOE assumes other technologies like reflector CFL, ceramic metal 

halide, and solid state lighting will penetrate the IRL market: ~50% 

IRL sockets in 2042 

24 
2011 

2014 2017 

2020 

2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 

2038 

2041 

General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

IRL Stock Projection 

0 

100 

200 

300 

400 

500 

600

Reflect

or Lamp S

ockets (

millions) 

Covered Incandescent 

Reflector Lamps 

Emerging 

Technologies 

Year 

25 

National Impact Analysis 

Base-Case Market-Share Matrices: IRL 

 Analyzed three lumen packages: 

• 27% at 580 lumens (50W Halogen baseline) 

• 32% at 1,050 lumens (75W Halogen baseline) 

• 41% at 1,310 lumens (90W Halogen baseline) 

 Residential stock: 100% halogen throughout the analysis period 

 Commercial stock: 80% halogen and 20% HIR in 2012 

50% halogen and 50% HIR in 2042 

Commercial Sockets 

Lamp Design 

Stock in 

2011 

Stock in 

2042 

90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, 

Halogen 33% 21% 

75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, 

Halogen 26% 16% 

50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, 

Halogen 22% 14% 

70W, 18.0 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 8% 21% 

60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 6% 16% 

41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 5% 14% 

Residential Sockets 

Lamp Design 

Stock in 

2011 

Stock in 

2042 

90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, 

Halogen 41% 41% 

75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, 

Halogen 32% 32% 

50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, 

Halogen 27% 27% 

26 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

27 

National Impact Analysis 

IRL Base-Case Shipment Forecasts 

Commercial Sector Residential Sector 

 Shipments calculated by tracking the retirement (based on lifetime) 

of IRL in the stock 

 Base-case shipment decline caused by: 

• Increased penetration of reflector CFLs and other emerging technologies 

• Shift towards longer-lived HIR lamps in the commercial sector 

0.00 

0.02 

0.04 

0.06 

0.08 

0.10 

0.12 

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 

Year 

Shipments (billions) 

Base-Case Forecast 

Historical Shipments 

0.00 

0.02 

0.04 

0.06 

0.08 

0.10 

0.12 

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 

Year 

Shipments (billions) 

Base-Case Forecast 

Historical Shipments 

28 

National Impact Analysis 

Incandescent Reflector Lamp Standards-Case Shipment 

Methodology 

Lamps in the 

Inventory in 2011 

Extrapolated 

Shipments to 2011 

NEMA Historical 

Shipments 

(2001-2005) 

Market Shares of 

the Lamp Inventory 

in 2011 

Standards-Case 

Market Shares of 

the Lamp Inventory 

in 2012-2042 

Lamp 

Replacement 

Shipments 

New 

Construction 

Shipments 

Total Shipments 

Rate of New Construction 

• Product Mix of Shipments 

• Product Mix of Inventory 

# of Lamps in the 

Inventory in 2012-

2042 

Historical 

Shipments of 

Covered Lamps by 

Sector 

Emerging Technologies 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Incandescent Reflector Lamp Standards Case Scenarios 

 Stock of IRL lamps in the standards-case is the same as the stock 

of IRL lamps in the base-case in all scenarios. 

 Main Scenario – “upper bound of energy savings” 

• Assumes all base-case IRL consumers continue to purchase regulated IRL 

products 

• All IRL consumers purchase lowest first cost, higher efficacy, reducedwattage lamps in the standards case (light output of standards-compliant lamp 

is same as baseline lamp) 

 65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity – “reduced energy savings” 

• Accounts for standards case market migration to the exempted 65W BR30 

and BR40 lamps 

• 65W BR lamp is a direct replacement for the 50W PAR baseline lamp. 

 10% Lumen Increase Sensitivity – “reduced energy savings” 

• Residential consumers purchase same-wattage, higher-wattage, and 

reduced-wattage lamp designs 

• Results in an overall increase in lumens 

29 

National Impact Analysis 

IRL Main Scenario: Commercial Standards-Case Market Share Matrices 

CSL Lamp Design 

Stock in 

2011* 

Stock in 

2013** 

Stock in 

2042 

% % % 

90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 33 21 

75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 26 16 

50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 22 14 

Base Case 70W, 18.0 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 8 21 

60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 6 16 

41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 5 14 

Total 100 100 

79W, 16.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 32 21 

66W, 15.9 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 25 16 

44.3W, 14 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 21 14 

CSL1 70W, 18 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 9 21 

60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 7 16 

41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 6 14 

Total 100 100 

70W, 18 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 41 41 

CSL2 60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 32 32 

41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 27 27 

Total 

66W, 19.8 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 41 41 

CSL3 55W, 19.1 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 32 32 

40W, 17 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 27 27 

Total 100 100 

*Base-Case Input Only 

**Standards-Case Input Only (2013 is the year when standards-compliant lamps are 

able to fill all sockets. 30 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

IRL Main Scenario: Residential Standards Case Market Share Matrices 

CSL Lamp Design 

Stock in 

2011* 

Stock in 

2015** 

Stock in 

2042 

% % % 

90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 41 41 

Base Case 75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 32 32 

50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 27 27 

Total 100 100 

79W, 16.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 41 41 

CSL1 66W, 15.9 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 32 32 

44.3W, 14 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 27 27 

Total 100 100 

70W, 18 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 41 41 

CSL2 60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 32 32 

41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 27 27 

Total 

66W, 19.8 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 41 41 

CSL3 55W, 19.1 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 32 32 

40W, 17 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 27 27 

Total 100 100 

*Base-Case Input Only 

**Standards-Case Input Only (2015 is the year when all standards-compliant lamps are able 

to fill all sockets. 

31 

National Impact Analysis 

IRL Shipment Forecasts 

DOE invites comment on the methodology used to incorporate 

emerging technologies in the base-case IRL forecast. (Issue #11) 

DOE invites comment on the assumptions discussed including IRL 

operating sectors, market shares of incandescent and halogen IRL, and 

market shares of exempted IRL. (Issue #11) 

DOE invites comment on the population of IRL base-case and 

standards-case market share matrices. (Issue #10, Issue #12) 

DOE invites comment on the national lumen output projection in both 

the standards case and base case. Specifically DOE invites comment 

on whether any shipment or stock adjustments are necessary in 

response to over-lighting or under-lighting. (Issue #11) 

DOE invites comment on standards-case shipment scenarios analyzed 

for incandescent reflector lamps. (Issue #12) 

32 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

National Energy Savings Inputs 

 Product Stock by Design 

• Tracked by shipments, market-share matrices, and product retirements 

 Unit Annual Energy Consumption 

• Per unit values for each lamp or lamp-and-ballast system as developed by the 

Energy-Use Characterization 

 Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

• Conversion factors forecast using 2007 Annual Energy Outlook (2030-2042 

estimated using 2020-2030 forecast trends) 

• Factors vary annually and account for generation, distribution, and 

transmission losses

 HVAC Interaction 

• Commercial and industrial sector: 6.25% (2000 Ballast rulemaking) 

• No HVAC modeled in the residential sector 

 Rebound Rate 

• Accounts for increased lighting usage due to lower operating costs in the 

standards case 

• Commercial and Industrial sectors: 1%, Residential sector: 8.5% 

33 

National Impact Analysis 

National Energy Savings Inputs 

DOE invites comment on the HVAC interaction implemented in the 

commercial and residential sectors. 

DOE invites comment on the inclusion and the magnitude of the 

rebound effect for purposes analyzing the expected effects of this 

regulation. 

34 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Net Present Value Inputs 

 Shipments by Product Design 

• Taken from shipments analysis 

 Per Unit Installed Cost 

• Taken from LCC and Product Price Determination (prices and labor costs) 

 Electricity Prices 

• Average prices taken from LCC analysis 

• Future energy prices adjusted according to trend forecasted by the 2007 

Annual Energy Outlook 

 Discount Rate 

• 7% and 3% real from OMB’s Regulatory Analysis Circular A-4 

• Future expenses discounted to 2007, reported in 2006$ 

 DOE also calculates a residual value in 2042 to account for 

remaining life of installed lamps in the base case and standards 

case. 

DOE invites comment on its usage of residual value to account for 

the remaining lifetime of lamps. 35 

36 

National Impact Analysis 

General Service Fluorescent Lamps NES and NPV Results 

(Shift Scenario, 7% Discount Rate) 

4-foot Medium Bipin 

0 

2 

4 

6 

8 

10 

12 

14 

CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL5 

Energy Savings (Quads) 

0 

5 

10 

15 

20 

25 

NPV (Billion $) 

Energy Savings NPV 

8-foot Single Pin Slimline 

0 

0.05 

0.1 

0.15 

0.2 

0.25 

0.3 

0.35 

0.4 

0.45 

CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL5 

Energy Savings (Quads) 

-0.1 

0 

0.1 

0.2 

0.3 

0.4 

0.5 

0.6 

0.7 

0.8 

NPV (Billion $) 

Energy Savings NPV 

8-foot Recessed Double Contact High Output 

0 

0.5 

1 

1.5 

2 

2.5 

CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL5 

Energy Savings (Quads) 

0 

0.5 

1 

1.5 

2 

2.5 

3 

3.5 

4 

NPV (Billion $) 

Energy Savings NPV 
General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 

Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting 

37 

National Impact Analysis 

Incandescent Reflector NES and NPV Results 

(Main Scenario, 7% Discount Rate) 

0 

0.5 

1 

1.5 

2 

2.5 

3 

CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 

Energy Savings (Quads) 

0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

NPV (Billion $) 

Energy Savings NPV 

National Impact Analysis 

ANOPR Issues for Public Comment 

 Base-Case and Standards-Case Market Share Matrices (Issue #10)

 Shipment Forecasts (Issue #11)

 Base-Case and Standards-Case Forecasted Efficiencies (Issue #12)

 NES and NPV Calculation Inputs

38