Title: Protective Intelligence Threat Assessment Investigations: A Guide for State and Local Law Enforcement Officials.
Series: Research Report
Author: Robert A. Fein and Bryan Vossekuil
Published: July 1998
Subject: Police training, stalking, terrorism
46 pages
99,000 bytes

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Protective Intelligence Threat Assessment Investigations: A Guide for
State and Local Law Enforcement Officials

Research Report

U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
810 Seventh Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20531

Janet Reno
Attorney General
U.S. Department of Justice

Raymond C. Fisher
Associate Attorney General

Laurie Robinson
Assistant Attorney General

Noel Brennan
Deputy Assistant Attorney General

Jeremy Travis
Director, National Institute of Justice

-------------------------------

Department of Justice Response Center
800-421-6770

Office of Justice Programs
World Wide Web Site
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov

National Institute of Justice
World Wide Web Site
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij

-------------------------------

Protective Intelligence and Threat Assessment Investigations: A Guide
for State and Local Law Enforcement Officials

by Robert A. Fein and Bryan Vossekuil

July 1998

NIJ
Jeremy Travis, Director
Richard Rau, Program Monitor

Robert A. Fein, Ph.D., is a Psychologist for the U.S. Secret Service,
U.S. Department of the Treasury. Bryan Vossekuil is Deputy Special
Agent in Charge, Intelligence Division, U.S. Secret Service. This
project was supported by the National Institute of Justice, Office of
Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice, under award number 92-
IJ-CX-0013, and by the U.S. Secret Service, U.S. Department of the
Treasury.

The findings, conclusions, and opinions expressed in this document are
those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position or
policies of the U.S. Department of Justice or the U.S. Department of the
Treasury.

NCJ 170612

-------------------------------

The National Institute of Justice is a component of the Office of Justice
Programs, which also includes the Bureau of Justice Assistance, the
Bureau of Justice Statistics, the Office of Juvenile Justice and
Delinquency Prevention, and the Office for Victims of Crime.

-------------------------------

Message From the Director, 
U.S. Secret Service

The U.S. Secret Service is committed to providing a safe environment
for each public official it is entrusted to protect. To accomplish this
mission, it has developed comprehensive protective programs. The U.S.
Secret Service believes that threat assessment and protective intelligence
are important aspects of these protection efforts. The purpose of U.S.
Secret Service threat assessment and protective intelligence activities is
to identify, assess, and manage persons who might pose a threat to those
we protect, while the goal of these activities is to prevent assassination
attempts.

In carrying out its protective responsibilities, including threat
assessment, the U.S. Secret Service works closely with State and local
law enforcement agencies. The cooperation, information, and assistance
provided through this relationship play a major role in assisting the U.S.
Secret Service in fulfilling its responsibilities. At the same time, the
U.S. Secret Service has searched for opportunities to further
partnerships with State and local police agencies and increase knowledge
across all levels of law enforcement.

During the past several years, with the support of the National Institute
of Justice and the cooperation of the Federal Bureau of Prisons, the U.S.
Secret Service conducted an operational study of the thinking and
behavior of the 83 persons known to have attacked or come close to
attacking prominent public officials and figures in the United States
during the past 50 years. This study, the Exceptional Case Study
Project, was recently completed; its findings are leading the U.S. Secret
Service to refine and improve its approaches to preventing assassination
attempts.

One major product of the Exceptional Case Study Project is this guide,
which represents the U.S. Secret Service's efforts to share what it has
learned about protective intelligence and threat assessment with State and
local law enforcement officials who have responsibilities in the areas of
physical protection or protective intelligence.

The U.S. Secret Service is pleased to join the National Institute of
Justice in providing this information to our colleagues in the law
enforcement and criminal justice communities. We believe that the ideas
and information in the guide may assist persons and organizations
responsible for preventing attacks on public officials and figures. We
also hope that this information will be useful to other individuals and
agencies working to prevent other forms of targeted violence, such as
stalking, domestic violence, and workplace violence.

Lewis C. Merletti
Director
U.S. Secret Service
U.S. Department of the Treasury

-------------------------------

Message From the Director, National Institute of Justice

Throughout our country's history, persons in the public spotlight have
faced danger from others. Elected leaders, political figures, educators,
musicians, authors--all have been threatened with attacks on their safety
and, in some cases, their lives. In the past, often the only courses of
action for threatened individuals were to hire private security, to use
publicly provided protection (such as the U.S. Secret Service), and
simply to be more aware of the dangers facing them.

In recent years, however, efforts have focused on more proactive
prevention techniques--developing ways to identify and neutralize people
who pose a threat to public officials and figures. The U.S. Secret
Service, in its role as protector of the President and other U.S. and
international officials, has pioneered these efforts. The U.S. Secret
Service developed the field of threat assessment--the process of
investigating and analyzing persons and groups who are interested in and
capable of attacking public persons--not only to help it fulfill its mission
but also to assist other Federal agencies and State and local law
enforcement organizations.

Between 1992 and 1997, the U.S. Secret Service, assisted by the Federal
Bureau of Prisons, participated in a collaborative project with the
National Institute of Justice, studying assassins and would-be assassins
of the past 50 years. The purpose of the Exceptional Case Study Project
was to examine in detail the lives of assassins and would-be assassins to
determine any common traits. Researchers felt that similarities of
characteristics, thoughts, or behaviors among past assassins could be key
in helping law enforcement officials better identify which persons could
pose a present threat to public figures.

This guide is a product of these efforts; project researchers used the data
gleaned from the Exceptional Case Study Project to devise a standard set
of protocols and procedures for law enforcement and security agencies
responsible for protecting public persons and others vulnerable to
targeted violence. The guide takes agencies through the entire threat
assessment process, from designing a protective intelligence program to
investigating suspicious persons to closing a case. The National Institute
of Justice and the U.S. Secret Service hope that State and local law
enforcement organizations and other criminal justice practitioners will
find this guide useful as they work to prevent and deter those who would
engage in violence such as stalking, workplace violence, or domestic
violence.

Jeremy Travis
Director
National Institute of Justice
U.S. Department of Justice

-------------------------------

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to acknowledge the support of the National Institute of
Justice, especially the guidance of Richard Rau, Ph.D., and the editorial
support of the NIJ publications unit.

Staff from the Federal Bureau of Prisons assisted in obtaining records
and interviewing study subjects. The authors especially thank Daniel
Cowell, M.D.; Ruth Westrick-Connolly, M.D.; Sally Johnson, M.D.;
Casey Skvorc; and staff at the Federal Medical Centers in Rochester,
Minnesota, and Butner, North Carolina. 

Many persons within the U.S. Secret Service supported the authors'
efforts and contributed to the success of the Exceptional Case Study
Project (ECSP). The authors especially thank Director Lewis C.
Merletti; former Directors John R. Simpson and Eljay Bowron;
Assistant Directors H. Terrence Samway, Michael Smelser, David Lee,
and Stephen Sergek; Special Agents in Charge Jane Vezeris and Dale
Wilson; Deputy Special Agent in Charge James Lucey; Special Agents
Marty Allen, Steve Amico, Al Baker, John Berglund, Mike Garduno,
Paul Gebicke, and George Sexton; Intelligence Research Specialist Chris
Wallace; Research Section Chief Margaret Coggins, Ph.D.; Researchers
Angela Macdonald and Joseph Gerston; Senior Intelligence Research
Specialist Lynn Zimney; Archivist Michael Sampson; Supervisory
Visual Specialist Ed Ross; and Visual Information Specialists Jeff
Clemente, Bob Fulk, MacKenzie Kearney, and Patrick Nolan. A special
note of thanks is due Assistant Director Sergek, who reviewed ECSP
drafts and provided numerous comments.

Pamela Clark Robbins and Henry Steadman, Ph.D., of Policy Research
Associates, Inc., provided incisive suggestions and key support at each
stage of this project.

Shervert Frazier, M.D., provided invaluable information on violence
that shaped the authors' understanding of assassination behaviors.

Gavin de Becker shared information and insights and made many helpful
comments about an early draft of the guide.

The authors also wish to thank several other people who reviewed early
drafts of the guide, including Randy Borum, Psy.D., Frederick Calhoun,
Ph.D., Michael Gelles, Psy.D., Chris Hatcher, Ph.D., Robert Kasdon,
Paul Kelly, David Noznesky, Lieutenant Tom Taylor, and Patrick
Wolfe. Their comments strengthened the guide. 

The authors are grateful to Rita Premo of Aspen Systems Corporation
for her editorial assistance.

Finally, the authors wish to acknowledge the contribution of Gwen
Holden, who provided both enormous support and great expertise. Her
vigorous and skillful editing helped shape the guide into a useful
document for Federal, State, and local law enforcement and security
professionals.

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Contents

Message From the Director, U.S. Secret Service

Message From the Director, National Institute of Justice

Acknowledgments

Chapter 1. Introduction
The Problem
Exceptional Case Study Project
Threat Assessment Protocols

Chapter 2. Assassins and Assassination Behavior
The Assassin
 Myth 1
 Myth 2
 Myth 3
Key Observations on Assassins
 Attacks are the product of organized thinking and behavior
 Attacks are the means to a goal
 Motive and target selection are directly connected
 Who is dangerous?

Chapter 3. Elements of a Threat Assessment Program
Effective Design
Key Functions of a Protective Intelligence Program
 Identification
 Assessment
 Case management
Functions and Approaches of the Case Investigator
 Investigative skill
 Corroboration
 Common sense
Building a Database and Sharing Information

Chapter 4. Conducting a Threat Assessment Investigation
Opening a Case
 Inappropriate or unusual interest
 Threats
Investigating a Case
 Interviewing the subject
 Content of a protective intelligence investigation

Chapter 5. Evaluating a Threat Assessment Case
Principles to Guide a Protective Intelligence Evaluation
Questions to Ask in a Threat Assessment
Protection

Chapter 6. Managing a Protective Intelligence Case
Monitoring, Controlling, and Redirecting the Subject
Ending Monitoring
 Sources of postassessment information
Closing a Case
Conclusion

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Chapter 1: Introduction

Threat assessment is a developing field pioneered by the U.S.
Department of the Treasury's U.S. Secret Service, which is charged
with protecting the President of the United States and other U.S. and
foreign leaders. Threat assessment measures involve investigation and
analysis of situations and individuals that may pose threats to persons in
public life. In 1992, the Secret Service, in partnership with the National
Institute of Justice and with assistance from the Federal Bureau of
Prisons, began the Exceptional Case Study Project (ECSP), a 5-year
study to examine the thinking and behavior of individuals who have
attacked or approached to attack prominent public officials or figures in
the United States since 1949.[1] ECSP findings reveal general threat
assessment information relating to attacks on public officials and figures,
while suggesting that broader application of threat assessment protocols
by Federal, State, and local law enforcement officials could help
anticipate and prevent other crimes, such as stalking and workplace
violence.

Drawing from project findings, this guide describes an approach to
threat assessment and the protective intelligence investigative process
that can be of assistance to Federal, State, and local law enforcement and
security professionals with protective intelligence responsibilities.
Though not intended to serve as an operations manual, the guide
presents information and ideas about developing and implementing
protective intelligence programs and activities. Information about the
thinking and behavior of persons who have attacked or come close to
attacking public officials and figures can help refine law enforcement
operations related to preventing and investigating violence and threats of
violence.

The Problem

Assassination of political leaders and other public figures has been
a significant problem in the United States. Since 1835, 11 attacks on
U.S. presidents (4 of them resulting in the death of the President) have
occurred. Since 1949, two attacks on Presidential candidates have been
attempted, in addition to two attacks on Members of Congress, several
assassinations of national political leaders, a number of attacks on State
and local elected officials, several murders of Federal and State judges,
and several well-publicized attacks on celebrities and business leaders.
These attacks do not include many other individuals who presented
themselves as warranting serious concern. Each year, Federal, State, and
local law enforcement officials and private security officers intercede
with thousands of individuals who demonstrate inappropriate or unusual
interest in a public official or figure. Some of these individuals were
intercepted within lethal range of a target just before they attempted to
mount an attack.

Although substantial academic literature on assassination exists, little has
been written about the thinking and behavior of assailants who attempt
attacks on prominent persons. For example, how do attackers select their
targets? What are their motives? How do they plan their attacks? How
do these persons assess the security barriers that face them? What
communications, if any, do they make before their attacks? To what
extent do symptoms of mental illness affect their actions?

Planned, targeted attacks are not confined to those involving prominent
public officials and celebrities. Tragically, such attacks are a frequent
feature of interpersonal violence in this country today. Cases involving
stalking, domestic violence, workplace violence, and bias-motivated
criminal activity involve planned--often violent--attacks on intentionally
selected targets. 

Exceptional Case Study Project

The study examined the thinking and behavior of all 83 persons known
to have attacked or approached to attack a prominent public official or
figure in the United States from 1949 to 1996. During this time period,
74 attacks and near-lethal approaches occurred.[2] Six attacks were
carried out by 16 individuals who were members of groups. Sixty-eight
of the attacks and near-lethal approaches were carried out by 67
individuals acting alone. (One individual attacked two public figures.)
Targets of these individuals included Presidents, other officials protected
by the Secret Service, Members of Congress, Federal judges, prominent
national political leaders, State and city officials, business executives,
and entertainment, sports, and media celebrities. (See exhibit 1.) All
targets were selected because they were prominent persons.

ECSP information gathering and analysis focused on seven major
questions:

o How did these individuals develop the idea of assassination, and how
did they move from the idea of assassination to lethal or near-lethal
action?

o What were the individuals' motives?

o How did the individuals select their targets?

o How did the individuals plan their attacks?

o What communications, if any, did individuals make before
their attacks or near-lethal approaches?

o What role, if any, did symptoms of mental illness play in individuals'
assassination behaviors?

o Were there key life experiences or incidents that appeared to affect
individuals' assassination interests or behaviors?

ECSP findings could be used to help law enforcement and security
professionals throughout the United States reevaluate their methods of
investigating assassinations and kidnapings, formulating protective
strategies, and gathering protective intelligence. This guide describes the
following:

o Important information about assassins and assassination behaviors.

o Elements of an effective protective intelligence system.

o Specialized threat assessment investigations. 

Threat Assessment Protocols

Law enforcement organizations, private security experts, and
the potential targets of violent attacks spend considerable resources on
personal protection measures such as enhancements in physical security;
24-hour-a-day physical protection for themselves, their home, and their
office; and/or periodic protection. They also may include specialized
personal safety training for potential targets.

Threat assessment or protective intelligence is the process of gathering
and assessing information about persons who may have the interest,
motive, intention, and capability of mounting attacks against public
officials and figures. Gauging the potential threat to and vulnerability of
a targeted individual is key to preventing violence. Among criminal
justice functions, threat assessment holds great promise for determining
vulnerability and guiding interventions in potentially lethal situations.

The primary goal of every protective intelligence investigation is to
prevent an attack on a potential target. By using a combination of
investigative skill, corroboration, and common sense, a protective
intelligence investigator can gather the information and evidence to make
a thoughtful assessment of the threat an individual may pose to a target.
Once an assessment is made, a plan can be developed and implemented
to monitor the individual and to intervene, as appropriate, to prevent an
attack. Attention to the individual's motives and attack-related behaviors
and to the systems (family, work, community, criminal justice, mental
health, and social services) that the individual is involved with are key to
assessing and managing a potential threat.

Building and maintaining the organizational capacity to conduct
protective intelligence investigations at the Federal, State, and local
levels takes careful conceptualization, planning, and oversight by
experienced law enforcement and security agency managers. Once
developed, a protective intelligence program will serve as a key
component of a comprehensive protection program to prevent targeted
violence.

-------------------------------

Chapter 2: Assassins and Assassination Behavior

Three days after a Presidential candidate visited a small Southern city in
September 1988, an anonymous letter writer ordered the candidate to
drop out of the Presidential race. The letter stated that the writer had
attended the candidate's rally with a gun and had stood within shooting
range of the candidate. "I didn't shoot this time," said the letter. "I will
the next." Enclosed with the letter were three photographs of the rally.
Investigative analysis suggested that the photographer was standing
within 100 feet of the candidate.

A receptionist in the Governor's office reported that a well-dressed man
came to the office, gave his name, and demanded a meeting with the
Governor. Asked why he wanted to see the Governor, the man stated,
"If he won't meet with me by next Thursday, I will place him under
arrest." The man then left the office.

A man called the police to report that a female tenant in his apartment
building appeared to be "fixated" on a popular film actor. He said that
when he was asked to fix a broken toilet in her apartment about a month
ago, he noticed that the walls were covered with posters of the actor.
The day before, another tenant had told him that the woman said that "X
[the actor] and I will both be dead in a week." When the man read in the
newspaper that X was scheduled to make an appearance at a benefit
dinner in the city early the following week, he decided to contact the
police.

These are examples of situations that come to the attention of Federal,
State, and local law enforcement authorities and security managers. Any
of these cases may present a risk to a target. The overwhelming majority
of cases that come to law enforcement's attention do not result in
attacks. But, a few cases do culminate in assassination attempts.
Sometimes, individuals and groups attempt assassinations without
becoming known to authorities before they attack.

The Assassin

Three prevalent beliefs about assassination exist in popular culture,
largely unsupported by data that have been gathered and analyzed about
attackers of public officials and figures in the United States. Critical
thinking about assassination behaviors proves these beliefs to be myths.

Myth 1: There is a profile of "the assassin."

Fact: Attackers and near-lethal approachers do not fit any one
descriptive or demographic profile (or even several descriptive or
demographic profiles).

Much has been written about profiles of assassins, but in reality there
are no accurate descriptive or demographic profiles of American
assassins, attackers, and near-lethal approachers. American assassins and
attackers have been both men and women of various ages, educational
backgrounds, employment histories, and other demographic and
background characteristics.

ECSP findings about the histories and personal characteristics of
attackers and near-lethal approachers include the following: 

o Their ages ranged between 16 and 73.

o Almost half had attended college or graduate school.

o They often had histories of mobility and transience. 

o About two-thirds were described as socially isolated.

o Few had histories of arrests for violent crimes or for crimes that
involved weapons.

o Few had been incarcerated in Federal or State prisons before their
attack or attempt to attack a public figure.

o Most had histories of weapons use, but few had formal weapons
training.

o Many had histories of harassing other persons.

o Most had histories of explosive, angry behavior, but only half of the
individuals had histories of physically violent behavior.

o Many had indicated their interest in attacking a public figure to
someone else.

o They often had interests in militant or radical ideas and groups, though
few had been members of such groups.

o Many had histories of serious depression or despair.

o Many were known to have attempted suicide or to have considered
suicide at some point before their attack or near-lethal approach.

o Almost all had histories of grievances and resentments, many directed
against a public official or figure.

Although there is no such thing as an assassin profile, potential attackers
often engage in many of the same behaviors and actions before their
attacks. Mounting an attack on a prominent person requires a number of
preparatory decisions and activities--attack-related behaviors. For
instance, a potential assassin must choose a target, learn where the target
is going to be, choose and secure a weapon, survey security, develop an
attack plan, and consider whether and/or how to escape. Although not
every ECSP attacker and near-attacker engaged in all of these activities
and behaviors, most engaged in several of them.

Myth 2: Assassination is a product of mental illness or derangement.

Fact: Mental illness only rarely plays a key role in assassination
behaviors.

Many believe that attacks on public figures are deranged behaviors,
without rational or understandable motives; they therefore believe that
perpetrators of these crimes must be mentally ill. In most cases,
however, mental illness does not appear to be a primary cause of
assassination behavior. Attacks on prominent persons are the actions of
persons who see assassination as a way to achieve their goals or solve
problems, which requires a fairly rational process.

Most near-lethal approachers and the great majority of assassins were
not mentally ill--none were models of emotional well-being, but
relatively few suffered from serious mental illnesses that caused their
attack behaviors.

In almost every case--even those in which the attackers were seriously
mentally ill--an attack was a means to achieve an end, such as calling
attention to a perceived problem. Moreover, in cases where mental
illness clearly played a role in assassination attempts, symptoms of
mental illness generally did not prevent the person from engaging in
attack-related activities, such as rationally developing an attack strategy.
In most situations involving persons with severe and untreated mental
illness, the symptoms disable the person's usual problem-solving
abilities. However, among mentally ill ECSP attackers and near-lethal
approachers, most remained organized and capable of planning and
mounting an attack.

Mental health histories of ECSP attackers and near-lethal approachers
include the following:

o Many had contact with mental health professionals or care systems at
some point in their lives, but few indicated to mental health staff that
they were considering an attack on a public official or figure.

o Almost half had histories of delusional ideas, but few of these ideas led
directly to a near-lethal approach or attack.

o Few had histories of command hallucinations (imagined voices
ordering the individual to take action).

o Relatively few had histories of substance abuse, including alcohol
abuse.

Myth 3: The persons most likely to carry out attacks are those who make
direct threats.

Fact: Persons who pose an actual threat often do not make threats,
especially direct threats.

People who study assassination often associate threateners with
attackers, as if the two are the same. Many assume that those who make
threats pose real threats. Although some threateners may pose a real
threat, usually they do not. However, most importantly, those who pose
threats frequently do not make threats.

o None of the 43 assassins and attackers communicated a direct threat to
the target before their attack.

o Fewer than one-tenth of all 83 attackers and near-lethal approachers
communicated a direct threat to the target or to a law enforcement
agency.

o Two-thirds of the assassins and near-lethal approachers were known to
have spoken or written in a manner suggesting that they were
considering an attack. Would-be assassins told family members, friends,
colleagues, and associates about their thoughts and plans, or they wrote
down their ideas in journals or diaries.

These data do not suggest that investigators should ignore threats that are
communicated to or about public officials or figures. Many persons may
have been prevented or deterred from taking action because of a prompt
response to their threatening communications. However, careful
attention should also be paid to identifying, investigating, and assessing
anyone whose behaviors suggest that he or she might pose threats of
violence, even if the individual does not communicate direct threats to a
target or to the authorities.

Key Observations on Assassins

Three key observations about assassins and their behaviors emerged
from the ECSP study:

o Assassinations and attacks on public officials and figures are the
products of understandable and often discernible processes of thinking
and behavior.

o Most people who attack others perceive the attack as the means to a
goal or a way to solve a problem.

o An individual's motives and selection of a target are directly
connected.

Attacks are the product of organized thinking and behavior 

Almost without exception, assassinations, attacks, and nearattacks are
neither impulsive nor spontaneous acts. The notion of attacking the
President does not leap fully formed into the mind of a person standing
at a political rally attended by the President. Ideas of assassination
develop over weeks, months, even years, and are stimulated by
television and newspaper images, movies, and books. Potential assassins
seek out historical information about assassination, the lives of attackers,
and the protectors of their targets. They may deliberate about which
target--and sometimes targets--to choose. They also may transfer their
interest from one target to another.

After selecting a target, attackers and near-lethal approachers develop
plans and sometimes rehearse before mounting an attack. Often, their
days are shaped by their planning activities: What kind of weapon shall I
use? Where will the target be? How will I get close? What should I
wear? What should I carry with me? Should I leave a letter in case I am
killed? For some would-be attackers, such thinking dominates their
lives, providing a sense of meaning or a goal that will end their
emotional pain.

Frequently, thinking about assassination is compartmentalized; some
potential assassins engage in ongoing internal discussions about attacks
while maintaining outward appearances of normality. In every ECSP
case, assassination was the result of an understandable and often
identifiable process involving the attacker's pattern of thoughts,
decisions, behaviors, and actions that preceded the attack.

Attacks are the means to a goal

Most people who attack others consider violence the means to a goal or
a way to solve a problem. The problem may be that the potential
perpetrator feels unbearably unhappy, enraged, overwhelmed, or bereft.
If the person views violence as an acceptable or permissible solution, the
risk of violent action increases.

Violence--especially assassination--is an event in which a person,
triggered by an event or change, and operating in a situation that
facilitates, permits, or does not prevent violence, takes action against a
designated target. These four elements--the potential attacker, event,
situation, and target--form the basis for a threat assessment investigation.

The potential attacker. Determining the risk of targeted violence, such as
assassinations, begins with gathering information about the potential
attacker. In threat investigations and assessments, a key concern is how
the person has dealt with unbearable stress in the past.

People have many options for dealing with stress: resting, working,
exercising, sleeping, changing activities, seeking family support, making
contact with friends, etc. However, what happens when the usual means
of dealing with stress are not available, do not work, or are not pursued
and a person considers life unbearably stressful? At such a time, four
reactions are possible. A person might become:

o Physically ill.

o Psychotic or otherwise out of touch with reality.

o Suicidal or self-destructive.

o Violent to others or homicidal.

The event. Investigators should also examine past traumatic events in the
life of the individual, particularly those that caused life to seem
unbearably stressful. These might include major changes such as:

o Losses of significant relationships (the end of an intimate relationship,
death of a parent, or loss of a child).

o Changes in financial status (the loss of a job or threatened financial
disaster).

o Changes in living arrangements (being released from an institution, for
example).

o Feeling humiliated or being rejected, especially in public.

Major adverse changes in life circumstances, such as losses, failures
(real or perceived), and rejections appear to stimulate attack-related
behavior--more than half of the ECSP subjects were known to have
experienced a major life stressor event in the year before their attack or
near-lethal approach.

People deal with life changes and events differently. What might cause
one person major worry and distress is met with acceptance by another.
To determine whether an individual may be a cause for concern, three
questions must be answered: What events or changes led the individual
to perceive life as unbearably stressful? How did he or she respond to
these events? What is the likelihood that such events or changes will
recur in the individual's life?

The situation. The third factor to consider is the individual's specific
situation at the time of peak stress. Do people around the person
support, permit, or ignore the threat of violence? Do family, friends,
colleagues, or supervisors say--directly or indirectly--that violence is not
a solution to problems and is not permitted? Or is the possibility of
violence condoned, accepted, or ignored? People around a person who is
acutely at risk of behaving in a violent manner can act to prevent
violence.

The target. When conducting a threat assessment, protectors and 
investigators must also pay attention to the individual's choice of a
potential target, assuming the individual has selected a target. The
following questions should be addressed:

o How well is the target known to the individual? Is the individual
acquainted with the target's work and lifestyle patterns? Is that
information readily available, as in the case of many public officials or
highly visible public figures?

o How vulnerable is the target to an attack? What changes in the target's
lifestyle or living arrangements could make attack by the individual more
difficult or less likely?

o How sophisticated is the target about the need for caution? How
concerned about safety is the target? How concerned are those around
the target (such as family or staff)? How responsive is the target likely to
be to the advice of law enforcement and security professionals?

Motive and target selection are directly connected

Contrary to the general perception, few assassins in the United States--
even those targeting major political leaders--have had purely political
motives. Other than the Puerto Rican nationalists who attacked President
Harry S. Truman in 1950 and Members of Congress in 1954, most
recent assassins, attackers, and near-lethal approachers held motives
unrelated to politics or political causes. ECSP's examination of the
thinking and behavior of the 83 American attackers and near-lethal
approachers identified 8 major motives, most of which are personal:

o To achieve notoriety or fame.

o To bring attention to a personal or public problem.

o To avenge a perceived wrong; to retaliate for a perceived injury.

o To end personal pain; to be removed from society; to be killed.

o To save the country or the world; to fix a world problem.

o To develop a special relationship with the target.

o To make money.

o To bring about political change.

Many attackers and near-lethal approachers craved attention and
notoriety, while others acted to bring attention to a particular problem.
A number of assailants of public officials and figures were consumed
with seeking revenge for perceived injuries or harm. A few attacked or
nearly attacked public officials or figures in hopes of being killed by law
enforcement or being removed from society by being incarcerated.
Several believed that assassinating their target was a way to save the
world. Others responded to beliefs or imagined voices that they felt
ordered them to attack a national leader. A number of subjects
approached a celebrity with a weapon to try to force the target into a
special relationship. Finally, a few attacked public officials or figures for
money, either because they were paid to kill the target or as part of an
attempt to secure ransom money.

Targets are selected on the basis of motive, not primarily because of
feelings about or hostility toward a particular target or office. Whether
an individual likes a particular elected official may be irrelevant if the
individual's motive is to achieve notoriety. "I would have voted for
him," said one would-be attacker, "if I hadn't been in jail charged with
trying to kill him." 

Consistent with their motives, many ECSP attackers and would-be
attackers considered more than one target before moving to attack. For
example, several individuals whose primary motive was notoriety
considered attacking public officials like Governors and Members of
Congress before ultimately deciding to attack the President or Vice
President; they calculated that an attack on the President or Vice
President would receive more attention. Assailants often made final
decisions about whom to attack because an opportunity for attack
presented itself or because they perceived another target was
unapproachable.

Who is dangerous?

Not all "dangerous" persons should be considered dangerous to a
particular public official or figure. Clearly, a man who is serving
multiple life sentences for killing bank customers during a robbery is a
dangerous person, but he may not pose a threat to a Governor or to an
entertainer. Therefore, threat investigators need to consider if he has a
motive to attempt such an attack. If he does, the next question is: What
is his current and foreseeable ability to attack a Governor or entertainer?

Who, then, is dangerous to public officials and figures? Generally,
a person who thinks that attacking a public official or figure is a
desirable, acceptable, or potentially effective way to achieve a goal can
be considered a potential assassin. If such a person has or develops the
capacity to mount an attack on a public official or figure, the threat
increases. Changes in thinking about the acceptability or effectiveness of
attacking, or changes in ability to attack, may decrease the threat posed.

-------------------------------

Chapter 3: Elements of a Threat Assessment Program

Effective Design

Designing and implementing a protective intelligence program in a law
enforcement or security organization involves two steps. The first step is
to define the problem, conceptualize the program and its functions, and
establish objectives. The next step is to assess what capabilities are
needed to implement the program and to plan so that essential functions
can continue over time.

In completing the first step, certain questions must be answered:

o How does the organization define its protective responsibilities? What
protective responsibilities does the organization now have? What
responsibilities is it likely to have?

o What approaches to protection are currently being used? What kinds of
protective services and programs are most likely to fulfill the
organization's responsibilities?

o What is the legal basis for protection?

o How often is the organization faced with the task of responding to a
threat or a concern about possible violence directed against a public
official or figure? 

o What currently happens when a threat is received by a protected
person's office?

o What should occur when an individual who might be interested in
harming a public official or figure comes to attention? For instance, who
should be notified?

o Is the organization faced with other targeted violence investigative
concerns such as stalking or workplace violence?

Protective services encompass a range of functions, including protective
intelligence and physical protection, designed to shield potential targets
of violent attacks or assassinations. Visible protectors, such as
uniformed officers and security agents, are deployed to defend against
any attempted attack on a protected person. Other physical protection
measures, such as metal detectors, may keep persons with weapons away
from a protected person and deter would-be attackers from trying to
approach with a weapon.

Protective intelligence--a less visible aspect of protection--consists of
programs and systems aimed at identifying and preventing persons with
the means and interest to attack a protected person from getting close
enough to mount an attack and, when possible, reducing the likelihood
that they would decide to mount an attack. Protective intelligence
programs are based on the idea that the risk of violence is minimized if
persons with the interest, capacity, and willingness to mount an attack
can be identified and rendered harmless before they approach a protected
person. This involves three key functions:

o Identification of persons who might pose a threat.

o Assessment of persons who are identified as a potential threat.

o Case management of persons and groups deemed a threat to a
protected person.

The second step in developing a threat assessment program involves
determining what is needed to complete protective intelligence tasks,
examining what is needed to conduct threat assessments, and deciding
how to maintain the threat assessment program. Again, several questions
must be answered:

o Who will carry out protective intelligence responsibilities? What kind
of staffing is needed?

o How will the knowledge and expertise developed by protective
intelligence investigators be maintained and shared over time?

o How will new investigators learn, and how will experienced
investigators teach?

o What balance of specialized threat assessment expertise and general
investigative experience is desirable?

o Can the protective intelligence program build ways to learn from its
experiences?

o How will case information be stored and retrieved for individual and
aggregated case analysis?

The needs of agencies responsible for protective intelligence mainly
depend on their activities. For instance, an organization like the U.S.
Secret Service, with responsibility for protecting the President and other
national leaders, needs to have the ability to respond immediately to
information that a person or group may pose a threat to a protected
person. Likewise, a police department in a major city may have a
substantial need to fulfill ongoing protective responsibilities as well as
intermittent needs to support other targeted violence investigations. A
security organization responsible for protecting celebrities may require
extensive protective intelligence abilities. Smaller security organizations
or those with limited or episodic protective responsibilities may have
less extensive needs.

Key Functions of a Protective Intelligence Program

A protective intelligence program involves three key functions:
identifying those who might pose a threat, investigating and assessing
those individuals, and engaging in case management of those who have
been deemed a threat to a protected person.

Identification

Identification is the process by which persons who might present a risk
to a public official or figure come to the attention of agencies responsible
for protective intelligence.

Some persons self-identify--they call, write, e-mail, or approach a public
official or figure or indicate an unusual or inappropriate interest in a
person. These individuals often give their names or provide other
information that leads to easy identification.

The threatener--someone who communicates a direct, indirect, or
conditional threat--is the classic example of a self-identifier. Such a
person may threaten for various reasons: to warn of a possible attack, to
ask to be stopped, to demand help or attention, to express frustration or
anger, or to communicate distress. Threats should always be
investigated; even if a threat is not an early warning of attack, making a
threat is usually a violation of law, which is a valid reason for opening
an investigation. 

Other persons self-identify by expressing an inappropriate interest in a
public official or figure. They may feel that they have (or should have) a
special relationship with the potential target, a unique assignment or role
to play, or extraordinary information or expertise that must be shared
directly with the public official or figure.

In addition to self-identifying, people also come to the attention of law
enforcement by being noticed by others who:

o Recognize that the behavior of the individual is of concern. 

o Believe that the individual should be brought to the attention of
authorities.

o Understand that authorities want to know about persons who might
pose a risk to public officials or figures.

o Know how to contact the proper law enforcement or security
organization (or know someone who knows how to contact authorities).

Individuals can be brought to the attention of the authorities by various
second parties, including other law enforcement agencies, State
agencies, security professionals, family members, neighbors, coworkers,
mental health practitioners, and correctional staff. But before this can
happen, protective intelligence program staff must decide on
identification criteria--which kind of persons the unit wants to be
informed about: Those who make threats against a protected person?
Those who indicate to others that they are considering an attack on a
protected person? Those who demonstrate inappropriate interest in a
protected person?

Once identification criteria are determined, decisions must be made
about education: Who should be informed about how to report cases of
potential concern? What should family members, associates, and staff of
a public official or figure know? What should be said to the public about
reporting cases of potential concern? 

Liaison between protective intelligence agencies and the public is a key
function of the identification process. Law enforcement and security
agencies will receive information only if the public is aware that they
have protective intelligence capacities and know how to contact
protective intelligence personnel.

In addition, liaison is important within a given organization and with
other organizations. Access to information is increased when the
protective intelligence unit previously has engaged in liaison efforts
designed to educate organizations and individuals who may have
information on potential threats about the mission and functions of the
protective intelligence unit. People and organizations with information
may be more willing to share information if they are aware of the
responsibilities of the protective intelligence unit and if they previously
have met or become acquainted with protective intelligence staff. For
instance, information from other city agencies about possible threats to
the mayor's safety is more likely to come to the police department if
staff know that the police department has a protective intelligence
capacity. In a corporate environment, reports about persons of possible
concern will come more readily to those responsible for an executive
protection unit if employees know that the unit exists and how to contact
unit staff.

Assessment

After an individual who poses a possible threat to protected persons
comes to the attention of agencies responsible for protective intelligence,
an initial evaluation is conducted and a decision is made about whether
to conduct an investigation. If an investigation is opened, investigators
gather information about the individual and then evaluate the information
collected to determine whether the individual poses a threat to a
protected person. The quality of an assessment is related to both the
relevance and the range of information gathered. Key facts of a case
should be authenticated and corroborated, with appropriate investigative
skepticism about the credibility, accuracy, and veracity of witnesses and
informants.

Sources of information. Protective intelligence investigators should make
use of all the information available about an individual that will help
them answer the fundamental question of threat assessment
investigations: Does this subject pose a threat to protected persons?
Investigators should emphasize factual data that can be corroborated,
rather than the opinions of those who know (or purport to know) the
individual.

Sources of information include interviews with the individual and those
who have had contact with or appear to have information about the
individual (employers, coworkers, neighbors, relatives, associates,
caregivers, arresting police officers), records from agencies and
institutions that have had contact with the individual, writings by or
about the individual, and receipts from the individual's purchases and
travels. 

A variety of strategies and tools are used in protective intelligence
investigations, including interviews; searches of people, residences,
automobiles, etc.; background checks; reviews of weapons purchases,
credit card purchases, phone records, and travel verifications; and
consultations with threat assessment professionals.

The processes of information gathering and evaluation occur
simultaneously; they are distinct, but influence each other. Newly
developed information affects the ongoing evaluation of the risks an
individual poses to protectees. At the same time, the evaluation process
may suggest new investigative leads or directions of inquiry.

Case management

When sufficient information is gathered to permit a full evaluation,
a decision is made about whether the individual being investigated poses
a threat to a protected person. If investigators believe that the individual
does not pose a risk, the investigation ends and the case is closed.
However, information about closed cases should generally be retained
for a period of at least several years. An individual may come to an
agency's attention as a potential threat again, in which case information
from the previous investigation may be invaluable.

If the individual is deemed a threat, a plan to manage the individual and
possible risks is developed and implemented. Such a plan may be as
simple as periodically confirming the whereabouts, for example, of an
individual confined to a correctional or mental health facility for an
extended period of time. A case management plan also may involve a
pattern of specified contacts with the individual and others around the
individual--such as family members, police officers, coworkers, and
caregivers--designed to prevent the individual from approaching a
protected person and to decrease the risk of violence posed by the
individual. In developing and implementing a case management plan,
consultation with threat assessment and other professionals is useful. In
all cases, the plan should include informing targets or their designated
protectors.

Once developed, a case management plan is implemented until the
protective intelligence agency decides that an individual no longer poses
a threat of violence. At that point the investigation is concluded and the
case is closed.

Functions and Approaches of the Case Investigator

Protective intelligence investigations should be based on three principles-
-investigative skill, corroboration, and common sense--that guide
investigators as they develop and execute protective intelligence
operations. 

Investigative skill

Protective intelligence investigations should be approached with the
inquisitiveness and skepticism that are hallmarks of other investigations.
The central goal of a protective intelligence investigation is to determine
whether an individual has the motive and means to develop or act on an
opportunity to attack a protected person. A primary task of the
investigator is to gather information, some of which may later be used as
evidence, that can be used to determine whether the individual poses a
threat to a protected person.

Corroboration

The second component of protective intelligence work is corroboration.
Significant facts of a case, including the statements of an individual who
may pose a threat, should be corroborated whenever possible. This
means, for example, that a report that the individual traveled to a city on
a given date should be viewed skeptically until corroborated;
investigators should attempt to secure copies of travel and lodging
receipts, statements of credible witnesses who saw the individual, and so
on. If the individual is to be interviewed, questions regarding recent
activities that would form the basis for corroboration may also help the
investigator form a judgment about the accuracy and truthfulness of the
information gathered during the interview.

Common sense

Protective intelligence investigations, by their nature, involve
considerable discretion and judgment on the part of the investigator.
Thus, common sense is necessary. For instance, common sense would
indicate that a person who attends three events where a protected person
is speaking during a period of several weeks (the last time with a pistol)
and who has no plausible explanation for attending these events is a
subject for concern--even if no direct threats have been made against the
protected person.

Likewise, a man serving multiple life sentences in a maximum-security
State prison for murdering three people who writes the Governor saying,
"I am committed to killing you by any means necessary," may have
motives for writing other than a desire to kill the Governor. Common
sense suggests that the letter writer may be a dangerous person.
However, common sense also leads an investigator to explore other
possible motives that might have led the prisoner to threaten the
Governor, such as the wish to secure transfer to another prison or to
increase his status in the prison population. After such an inquiry, an
investigator is better prepared to conclude whether the letter writer poses
a threat to the Governor.

Building a Database and Sharing Information

Information about the persons who are subjects of threat assessment
investigations should be organized and maintained in a manner that
permits search capabilities, efficient retrieval, and analysis. Some
individuals come to the attention of the authorities more than once,
sometimes months and even years after the initial investigation was
completed and the case closed. In these cases, prompt retrieval of case
materials fosters an informed decision of what additional investigation, if
any, is needed.

Developing a database also permits later analysis of behavior patterns
that come to the attention of threat assessment investigators. A database
containing both anecdotal and statistical information about individuals
who have been investigated could promote future development of
training materials and teaching programs for agencies with protective
intelligence and physical protection responsibilities.

Creating a database of threat assessment cases is also useful for
interagency cooperation. Attackers and would-be attackers often consider
multiple targets, who may live in different jurisdictions with various law
enforcement agencies and security organizations responsible for physical
protection and protective intelligence. To facilitate the detection of
patterns of behavior in known would-be attackers, law enforcement
agencies should implement information-sharing programs with other
such organizations. Under most circumstances, law enforcement
organizations are permitted to share such information. In many cases,
law enforcement organizations can receive information, even though
they may not provide information to other agencies. Other organizations
and individuals often understand these restrictions and may be willing to
give information that may help prevent attacks. 

-------------------------------

Chapter 4: Conducting a Threat Assessment Investigation

Opening a Case

An individual may come to the attention of protective intelligence
professionals after exhibiting inappropriate or unusual interest in a
protected person or by threatening a protected person. The information
may be general ("I'm going to the State capital to even the score") or
specific ("John Smith wrote the mayor's name on a .45 caliber bullet last
night"). The person may be acting alone or as part of a group.
Sometimes an individual is a person acting alone who becomes a fringe
member of an extremist group, using the rhetoric and rationale of "the
cause" for personal reasons.

Protective intelligence investigators determine whether the individual is
already known to the unit and decide--using criteria identified during the
program development phase--whether to initiate an investigation. If so,
an investigator is assigned to begin an inquiry.

Inappropriate or unusual interest

Much of the information that initially comes to the attention of protective
intelligence professionals appears on the surface to be relatively
innocuous. When initial information (provided by either a suspected
individual or another person) suggests that the suspected individual has
an inappropriate or unusual interest in a protected person, it is
reasonable to presume that the individual eventually will be deemed to
not pose a threat. The investigator's task is to search for information that
rebuts this presumption and suggests that the individual does pose a real
threat. Often, a relatively brief investigation will confirm that the
individual has neither the interest, motive, nor means to mount an attack
against a protected person, thus supporting the presumption that the 
individual is not a threat.

However, initial information sometimes suggests that the individual
already has taken action on his or her inappropriate or unusual interest,
such as going to the target's home or office or approaching the target in
a public place. The combination of inappropriate or unusual interest
coupled with actions based on that interest makes the case more serious. 

In even more serious cases, the individual's actions involve weapons-
seeking or weapons use. It is then reasonable to presume that the
individual poses a real threat. Investigators of these persons should
gather information refuting the assumption that the individual poses a
threat, if such information is available or exists.

Threats

An individual may come to the attention of authorities after making a
threat against a protected person or after being accused of making such a
threat. Threats should always be taken seriously and investigated.
Although many people who make threats against protected persons do
not pose a real threat, some make threats in order to convey a warning
that they are prepared to act. These individuals may interpret a lack of
investigative interest in their threats as permission or encouragement to
mount an attack. 

Also, some people make threats against protected persons to signal that
they are in danger of losing control and hurting someone. Making a
threat is a way for them to get attention (albeit less direct than desirable)
from authorities who they believe can prevent them from acting
violently. Ignoring these threats might make the individual more
desperate, possibly increasing the risk of violence to others, such as
family members of the individual.

Occasionally, anonymous threats by phone, letter, or electronic mail
come to the attention of law enforcement authorities. Individuals have
various motives for communicating anonymous threats. ECSP
information suggests that a few attackers and near-lethal approachers of
prominent persons who made anonymous threats were trying to warn
authorities that they were considering attacks. These individuals were
ambivalent about attacking and were communicating with the hope that
they might be stopped. Yet they did not want to identify themselves and
make it more likely that the attack would be prevented.

Anonymous threats, though rarely acted upon, should be taken seriously
and investigated to the fullest extent possible. Specific threats indicating
that the threatener has plans to attack or that the threatener may have
been in proximity to a protected person should be regarded with special
concern.

Investigating a Case

Once a case has been opened, the protective intelligence investigator
develops an investigation plan with the primary goal of collecting
information and evidence that will help determine whether an individual
has the interest, motive, and capacity to mount an attack on a target. 

A protective intelligence investigation differs from other kinds of
assessments of danger because the goal is to prevent a particular kind of
violence: attacks directed against public officials or figures. For
example, a parole board may try to assess the likelihood that an inmate,
if released, will commit another crime. A mental health professional may
attempt to predict whether a mentally ill person is likely to act violently
if he or she is not hospitalized. These are different kinds of evaluations
than the assessment required in a protective intelligence investigation.

Interviewing the subject

Traditionally, protective intelligence investigators have relied on their
interview of the individual who is the focus of a protective intelligence
investigation as a key (if not the key) source of information. But this rule
is not ironclad--for example, if the subject is known to be a member of a
radical or militant group, any interview should be considered only within
the context of the overall strategy for investigating the group.

The timing of the interview is often a major question. It usually makes
sense to first gather preliminary information about a subject's
background and interests before conducting an interview, as background
information can guide an investigator during the interview. Such
background information may lead the interviewer to areas relevant to
whether the person poses a threat to particular targets.

Interviews can provide investigators with valuable information about
subjects' thinking, motives for engaging in the behavior that initially
brought them to the attention of the authorities, behavior that might be
of concern, and leads for further investigation. Interviews may
corroborate subjects' statements and be the basis for judging their
veracity. Interviews also give subjects the opportunity to tell their
personal stories, to be heard, and to reassess and redirect their behavior
away from activities that concern investigators. 

If at all possible, an interview should be conducted in a subject's
"natural environment"--for example, at home--permitting the investigator
to observe and gather nonverbal information and evidence that is
relevant to the investigation, such as writings, pictures, and weapons
that are within sight. Also, the investigator will learn about the subject's
overall lifestyle and personality traits.

Investigators must sometimes interview persons who appear to be
mentally ill. Such interviews often require special patience. Investigators
should remember several basic principles regarding interviews with
mentally ill subjects:

o Any subject, including a mentally ill subject, will behave in accord
with how he or she perceives reality. Thus, to understand how a
mentally ill subject has behaved or may behave in the future,
investigators must learn how the person perceives reality. For example,
a subject who believes that aliens are controlling his mind and telling
him to attack the Governor may feel that he is being forced to stalk the
Governor, even though he sees himself as generally law-abiding and
knows that attacking the Governor is illegal. An investigator who
dismisses this thinking as crazy, concluding that the subject is unlikely to
act, and who stops the interview may not explore whether the subject has
made efforts to get a weapon or travel to sites where the Governor is
likely to be.

o People, including those who are mentally ill, are more likely to reveal
their thoughts and actions when treated with respect. Mentally ill
subjects who perceive their interviewers as interested in hearing what
they have to say are more likely to tell their stories than those who feel
humiliated or scorned.

o Someone who is acutely or chronically mentally ill may still be able to
think clearly in some areas and to determine whether an investigator is
speaking truthfully. Interviewers who use a style that is clear, direct, and
nonjudgmental are more likely to solicit useful information than those
using an approach in which they pretend to agree with a subject's
delusions. An interviewer needs to be an active listener and to
communicate a genuine interest in hearing and understanding the
subject's story, no matter how outlandish it may seem. However,
listening and understanding do not mean agreeing; an investigator should
take care not to inadvertently reinforce the views of a delusional subject.
Respectful skepticism will elicit more useful information: "I haven't had
that experience, but I'm very interested in what you believe."

Although interviews can provide valuable information, relying too
heavily on interviews does present problems. The information provided
by the subject may be incomplete, misleading, or inaccurate. The
interviewer may fail to solicit the information that is most relevant to the
protective intelligence strategy called for in the investigation. The
interviewee may present different information at different points in time,
depending on his or her current circumstances, degree of desperation,
mental health treatment, or other factors. In some cases, a subject's
mental condition may be worsened by the interview.

Content of a protective intelligence investigation

Protective intelligence investigations differ from many other kinds of
investigations in that the ultimate goal of these investigations is to
prevent an attack, not to secure an arrest or conviction or to verify facts.
Thus, any errors should be made on the side of safety and violence
prevention.

Corroborated information and evidence. A primary task of a protective
intelligence investigator is to seek and collect information and evidence
to corroborate the statements of the subject of the investigation.
Corroborated information about the individual's thinking and behavior
facilitates assessment of the subject's interests, motives, and capacity to
attempt to attack a protected person.

Corroborated evidence is more useful to investigators than subjective
information and opinions. For instance, in a more traditional
investigation, a detective would not ask a subject's wife, "Do you think
he would ever pass a bogus check?" Likewise, asking the relative of a
subject or a mental health professional questions such as "Do you think
he is the type of person who would try to attack the mayor?" are rarely
useful.

Areas of inquiry. A protective intelligence investigation of a subject
should seek information in five areas: 

The facts of the situation that initially brought the subject to the attention
of the authorities. The first area of inquiry concerns how the subject
came to the attention of the protective intelligence unit. In cases where
the subject went to the mayor's office with "special information only for
the mayor that will keep the city safe," the answer is obvious. But other
situations may be less clear. For example, a threatening letter from the
county jail to a judge signed John Doe, Inmate 502, may have been
written by inmate Jones to get Doe into trouble. An anonymous call to
the local police by a "concerned citizen" about Mary Smith's disparaging
comments about the mayor and her recent purchase of a gun may be
from a disgruntled employee who hopes to embarrass her by a visit from
law enforcement agents. Providers of information may have multiple
motives, and eyewitness accounts of people's behavior are notoriously
inaccurate. Protective intelligence investigators should carefully establish
the facts of a case to determine if the subject being reported is a victim
and if the "informant" is the true threat.

General information about the subject. Three kinds of general 
information about a subject are gathered in a protective intelligence
investigation: identifiers, background information, and information about
the subject's current life situation and circumstances.

o Identifiers. Identifying information (identifiers) includes the following:

 o Name and aliases.

 o Date of birth. 

 o Social security and military identification numbers.

 o Current address.

 o Names and addresses of close relatives.

 o Physical description and current photograph.

 o Handwriting samples.

o Background information. Background information includes the
following:

 o Education and training.

 o Criminal history.

 o History of violent behavior.

 o Military history.

 o History of expertise with and use of weapons.

 o Marital and relationship history.

 o Employment history.

 o Mental health history (especially involuntary psychiatric
commitments, episodes of depression or despair, including suicidal
thinking and behavior, and violent behavior while mentally ill).

 o History of grievances.

 o History of harassing others.

 o Interest in extremist ideas or radical groups.

 o Travel history, especially in the previous year.

There are four purposes for gathering background information: to learn
about past behaviors, interests, and lifestyles of subjects that may
influence their current interests, motives, or capacity to attempt an
attack; to develop sources of information, if further inquiry into a
subject's life (past and present) is needed; to develop information that
could help investigators locate the subjects in the future; and to assist in
managing cases that are deemed serious.

o Current life situation and circumstances. A third area of general
information sought in protective intelligence investigations concerns the
current living arrangements and environment of the subject being
investigated. Inquiry about a person's current situation is based upon the
knowledge that some persons engage in extreme behavior or reach out to
law enforcement authorities when they are in transition, in crisis, or in
an unstable living situation.

Protective intelligence investigators should consider a number of issues
related to a subject's current situation. Is the subject in a stable living
situation, with basic needs for food, clothing, shelter, and human contact
being met? Is the subject currently employed, and how stable is the
subject's employment situation? Is the subject currently or soon likely to
be in transition or crisis? For example, has the subject recently left a
marriage, job, or community? Will the subject soon be discharged from
a correctional or mental health institution? How does the stability of the
subject's current living situation compare with past living situations and
with the subject's likely living situation in the near future? Does the
subject appear to be on a downward course? For example, has the
subject recently appeared to be giving up hope, becoming more
desperate, losing important contacts and supports, or becoming suicidal?
Who is the best source to identify and convey this information?

Information about attack-related behaviors. ECSP examinations of the
thinking and behaviors of persons who have attacked or approached to
attack prominent persons in the United States suggest that many attacks
and near-lethal approaches are preceded by discernible attack-related
behavior. This behavior is often observed by people in the subject's life;
the protective intelligence investigator who discovers such behavior in a
subject will recognize it as a warning sign.

The idea that most assassins and near-lethal approachers engage in
similar attack-related behaviors is consistent with an understanding of
what is involved in mounting an attack on a protected person. An
individual must select a target, locate the target, secure a weapon, travel
to the vicinity of the target, and try to thwart whatever security measures
are in place. These efforts may provide clues, indicating that the subject
being investigated has been planning an attack. Protective intelligence
investigators should look for evidence of attack-related behaviors, which
can be categorized by whether or not weapons are involved.

Behaviors of concern in a threat assessment include: 

o An interest in assassination. Manifestations of such an interest include
gathering information about murder or assassination, writing to or about
assassins, following news accounts of violence directed at public figures,
visiting sites connected with assassinations, and emulating assassins.

o Ideas and plans about attacking a public figure or official. Evidence
that a person has been thinking about or planning an attack may be
revealed in comments to others, notes in a diary or journal, recent
attention to the activities or travel of a public person, inquiries about law
enforcement protective measures, travel patterns, attempts to breach
security, or recent efforts to secure a weapon.

o Communicating an inappropriate interest in a public official or figure,
especially comments that express or imply an interest in attacking the
person. ECSP information suggests that attackers and near-lethal
approachers rarely communicate direct threats to their targets or to law
enforcement agencies, but many communicate information that indicates
their intention to harm a target to relatives, coworkers, neighbors, or
others.

o Visiting a site linked to a protectee. Appearance at an event or site
where a public official or figure is, is believed to be, or will be in the
future is significant. Visits to these sites, when there is no obvious
reason for the subject's appearance there, may be evidence of attack-
related behavior.

o Approaching a protectee. To attack a protected person, an individual
usually must travel to an event or site where the public official or figure
is scheduled to be. Information that an individual has approached a
target by visiting a site under these circumstances may be cause for
concern.

Evidence of attack-related behavior involving a weapon should be taken
very seriously by protective intelligence investigators. Of special interest
is information about subjects purchasing or otherwise acquiring a
weapon around the same time as they develop or hold an inappropriate
or unusual interest in a public official or figure. In these circumstances,
investigators must determine the intended use of the weapon. 

Investigators should presume that an individual who has engaged in
attack-related behavior involving a weapon or who has breached security
is interested in attacking if given the opportunity. Investigative efforts in
such a case should focus on ruling out the possibility of an attack. For
example, investigators might establish that the individual had valid
reasons, unrelated to a possible attack on a protected person, to carry a
weapon or to travel to a certain site.

Motives. A thorough protective intelligence investigation involves
careful attention to a subject's motives, because motives may determine
whether a public official or figure is being targeted for attack and, if so,
which persons are at greatest risk.

As noted in chapter 2, the 83 American assassins and near-lethal
approachers studied by ECSP researchers had some combinations of
eight motives. However, U.S. Secret Service case experience suggests
that the motives of protective intelligence subjects who did not engage in
near-lethal behavior have included the following:

o Bringing themselves to the attention of persons they perceived to be
authorities. 

o Instigating their involuntary commitment to a mental health or
correctional institution. 

o Effecting change in a current living situation viewed as intolerable (for
example, to be moved from one prison to another).

o Obtaining help, e.g., being stopped from acting violently.

o Getting someone else in trouble.

o Obtaining attention or notoriety or bringing a concern to public
attention.

o Achieving a special relationship with a public official or figure.

o Correcting a perceived wrong.

o Being injured or killed.

An investigator's opinion about the rationality of the subject's motives
has no bearing on whether the subject will take action. Because subjects'
acts are based on their perceptions of reality, the investigator's views
will not determine a subject's future course of conduct. It may not
matter whether the motives are illogical or rational, foolish or realistic,
self-destructive or in the individual's best interests.

For example, a subject who believes that she is a relative of a public
figure and that she has been invited to move into the public figure's
residence is unlikely to be dissuaded by an investigator's rational
analysis. Such a person is likely to continue to believe that she is related
to the public figure despite facts to the contrary. The interviewer's tasks
in such a case are to understand how the subject views her situation, not
to reinforce any delusional ideas, and to try to gauge what action the
subject might take based on her perceptions and beliefs.

The motive of suicide can also be a factor in near-lethal approaches or
attacks on public figures and officials. This phenomenon--"suicide by
cop"--has received considerable attention in the past 10 years. An
individual who wants to die, but is not willing or able to take his or her
own life, may believe that instigating gunfire by approaching a protected
person with a weapon is a way to get killed. 

When coupled with an individual's wish for fame or notoriety, suicide
becomes an even more ominous motive. An individual whose motives
are notoriety and suicide may consider attacking a political leader, even
though he or she has no political interest and no negative feelings about
the protected person. The only issue that matters is that the public
official is protected by armed law enforcement officers and will be
accompanied by news media that will record the assailant's death.

Target selection. Many attackers and near-lethal approachers may
consider several potential targets and change their primary target several
times.

For example, the published diary of Arthur Bremer (who shot Alabama
Governor George Wallace in 1972) suggests that his first target was
President Richard Nixon. After unsuccessfully attempting to position
himself to shoot the President during a trip to Ottawa, Canada, Bremer
shifted his interest to Wallace, by then a Presidential candidate. Other
near-lethal attackers have shifted from one target to another based on
their perception of the importance of a given target. One subject shifted
between attacking a Governor, a Senator, and a Presidential candidate,
settling on the candidate because he thought a "Presidential candidate is
much more powerful."

When gathering information, therefore, investigators should be alert to
the possibility that a subject has considered, is simultaneously
considering, or might consider in the future a number of public officials
or figures as possible targets. Selection of a primary target may depend
on many factors, such as the subject's motives, ability to travel, financial
situation, and opportunities to approach a target, as well as the perceived
importance of, the media attention given to, and the perceived security
afforded a target.

-------------------------------

Chapter 5: Evaluating a Threat Assessment Case

A protective intelligence investigation, at least in part, is an effort to
predict specific future violence. Two points about violence prediction are
worth consideration. First, violence prediction is conditional--not a yes-
no, "this person will be violent or will never be violent" proposition. A
prediction of violence is a statement that, given certain circumstances or
conditions, a specified risk exists that a particular subject will act
violently toward a particular target.

Second, targeted violence is different than other kinds of violence, and
attacks on public officials or figures appear to be a specific kind of
targeted violence. An attack on a mayor, Governor, or President is a
different kind of behavior than an armed robbery, rape, or attack on a
roommate. A murder of a celebrity or a business leader is a different
kind of violence than a murder of a parent or neighbor. ECSP
information about attackers and would-be attackers of prominent persons
suggests that some factors that have been seen as general predictors of
violence, such as a history of violence, may not specifically predict
violence toward a public official or figure.

Principles to Guide a Protective Intelligence Evaluation

After information about a subject has been gathered, this material must
be organized and evaluated. A two-stage process is suggested. First,
information should be examined for evidence of behavior and conditions
that would be consistent with the likelihood of a violent attack on a
public person. In the second stage of evaluation, the protective
intelligence investigator will determine whether a subject appears to be
moving toward an attack and, if so, how rapidly.

Protective intelligence investigators should conduct threat assessments
using two principles discussed in chapter 2 as guides:

o Assassination is the result of an understandable and often discernible
process of thinking and behavior.

o Assassination stems from an interaction of the potential attacker,
event, situation, and target.

Questions to Ask in a Threat Assessment

Investigators should ask a number of questions of both the subject and
collateral sources throughout the investigation. The answers to these
questions will guide the evaluation:

o What motivated the subject to make the statement or take the action
that caused him or her to come to attention?

o What, if anything, has the subject communicated to someone else
(target, law enforcement, family, friends, colleagues, 

associates) or written in a diary or journal concerning his or her
intentions?

o Has the subject shown an interest in any of the following?

 o Assassins or assassination.

 o Weapons (including recent acquisition of a weapon).

 o Militant or radical ideas/groups.

 o Murders, murderers, mass murderers, and workplace violence and
stalking incidents.

o Is there evidence that the subject has engaged in menacing, harassing,
and/or stalking-type behaviors? Has the subject engaged in attack-related
behaviors? These behaviors combine an inappropriate interest with any
of the following:

 o Developing an attack idea or plan.

 o Approaching, visiting, and/or following the target.

 o Approaching, visiting, and/or following the target with a weapon.

 o Attempting to circumvent security.

 o Assaulting or attempting to assault a target.

o Does the subject have a history of mental illness involving command
hallucinations, delusional ideas, feelings of persecution, etc., with
indications that the subject has acted on those beliefs?

o How organized is the subject? Does the subject have the ability to plan
and execute a violent action against a target?

o Is there evidence that the subject is experiencing desperation and/or
despair? Has the subject experienced a recent personal loss and/or loss
of status? Is the subject now, or has the subject ever been, suicidal?

o Is the subject's "story" consistent with his or her actions?

o Are those who know the subject concerned that he or she might take
action based on inappropriate ideas?

o What factors in the subject's life and/or environment might increase or
decrease the likelihood that the subject will attempt to attack a target (or
targets)?

In addition, an investigator should address troubling or unresolved issues
about a particular case, which could include missing information or new
information that might clarify the subject's motives and interests.

Attacks on public officials and figures are rare; all cases that are serious
enough to be opened deserve a thorough investigation. Usually,
information gathered during the investigation will lead to the conclusion
that the subject does not pose a threat. However, sometimes the facts
cause the investigator to become concerned about the risk a subject
poses. These cases require particularly painstaking investigative efforts
and consideration.

In most cases, an investigator should consult with other professionals
before drawing a conclusion about whether a subject poses a threat to a
public official or figure. Another investigator with protective intelligence
experience is often the most effective consultant. However, people with
special expertise that might pertain to the facts of a given case can
sometimes offer a useful perspective. For example, a mental health
professional who has experience assessing mentally ill persons who act
violently and who is familiar with the operations of law enforcement
agencies could help assess information about a mentally ill subject.

Documenting and keeping a record of the information gathered and
evaluated in a protective intelligence investigation is vital. A well-
documented record permits others to review the case and offer
assistance, and shows that the investigation was performed with care and
attention. Also, a carefully documented case file provides baseline
information about a subject's thinking and actions at a certain point in
time, which can be invaluable if the subject is investigated again or if
future investigators need to determine whether the subject has changed
thought or behavior patterns.

Protection

Those charged with protection of the targeted public official or figure
must be notified about cases of concern, and the information should be
incorporated into protection activities. The structure and operations of an
organization should determine how threat assessment data are connected
to protection activities. For instance, if an organization has one unit
responsible for protection and one for threat assessment functions, this
often can be accomplished through intramural briefings. Briefing of
protectors usually includes a description of a subject's identifiers,
behavior, interests, and current location and situation. However, such
briefings should be two-way exchanges of information, because
protectors often have information that can be important in a protective
intelligence investigation as well as in followup investigations used in
monitoring the subject.

-------------------------------

Chapter 6: Managing a Protective Intelligence Case

In most protective intelligence cases, based on the information gathered,
investigators determine that an individual does not pose a risk to a public
person. The majority of these cases are --closed following the
investigation, unless a criminal violation occurred (for example, the
subject threatened a public official) or protectors feel that the subject
may harm a person other than the original target. If a criminal violation
has occurred, the case may be presented to the prosecutor's office for
possible charges. If investigators believe that a subject is a threat to an
unprotected person, they can attempt to direct the subject to the
appropriate resources or otherwise intervene to prevent violence.

When a thorough investigation suggests that the subject has the interest,
motive, and ability to attempt an attack on a public official or figure, the
investigator's task is to manage the case so that violence does not occur.
Successful case management involves considerable time and effort and is
composed of two functions: efforts directed at protection (discussed in
chapter 5), so that a target is shielded from the potential assailant, and
efforts directed at monitoring, controlling, and redirecting the subject.

Monitoring, Controlling, and Redirecting the Subject

The central premise of case management efforts is that violence directed
against a protected person is in no one's best interest, including that of
the potential assailant. Coordinated, consistent efforts to tell the potential
attacker that an attack will not be permitted and that it is not in anyone's
best interest to attack can increase the chance that a subject will abandon
the idea of assassination.

Unless there is reason to do otherwise, the subject should be made aware
of the investigation and told that unacceptable interest in a protected
person and unacceptable behavior must change. This message should be
communicated to the subject clearly and professionally. However, in
certain investigations--for example, those involving a member of a
radical or militant group--it may not be appropriate to alert the subject.
Many people considered a threat want attention and will accept ongoing
contact with the law enforcement or security organization responsible for
protective intelligence. Therefore, the subject should be asked to
cooperate with being monitored by the investigator and the law
enforcement or security agency. For example, the agency might ask the
subject to report all planned travel and to check in with the investigator
on a regular basis. 

Many subjects see law enforcement officers as important authority
figures in their lives. Regular, respectful interviews, in which
investigators listen while delivering a consistent, clear message about
unacceptable behavior, are key to supporting these subjects as they
attempt to change. For a mentally ill subject, simply reinforcing the idea
that he or she must remain connected to and cooperative with mental
health treatment professionals may be sufficient. Other cases, such as
those involving terrorists, call for different strategies.

Effective case management is aided by a systems perspective. That is,
investigators should identify existing social systems that might help them
manage persons who are potential threats. Social systems that might
work cooperatively with the investigator to engage, neutralize, and
redirect the potential attacker include the following:

o Criminal justice system (prosecutors, courts, probation officers,
correctional officials).

o Health and mental health care organizations (managed care
organizations, public mental health agencies, local hospitals).

o Social services organizations.

o Religious organizations to which the subject belongs or in which the
subject is interested.

o Community organizations.

o Family and friends.

Ending Monitoring

The purpose of connecting the subject to services and systems that will
aid and encourage change is ultimately to enable the investigator to
discontinue monitoring. After monitoring is ended and a case is closed,
the subject may continue to be involved with service systems that aid
successful functioning.

The investigator will be able to end monitoring after performing the
following tasks:

o Assessing whether (and to what extent) the subject has changed
unacceptable thinking and behavior over time.

o Developing and supporting intervention strategies that encourage and
help the subject to change.

Sources of postassessment information

To evaluate changes in behavior, an investigator should develop a
baseline of the subject's behaviors of concern and then collect
information over time about the subject from multiple and consistent
sources. Such a strategy takes into account the likelihood that the living
conditions may change, as may the law enforcement or security staff
with responsibility for ongoing investigation of the subject. 

To permit later comparisons to baseline behavior, the investigator should
write detailed descriptions of the subject's initial attack-related behavior
and worrisome thinking and actions when he or she was first deemed a
threat. A list also should be compiled of persons and organizations who
can be contacted at regular intervals for information about the subject's
behavior. Collateral-source information can corroborate or clarify
information gained directly from interviews with a subject during the
case management process. An interview with such a subject might be
followed by interviews with others who are in regular contact with the
subject to determine whether he or she behaves in a manner consistent
with his or her statements to the investigator. For example, a prison
inmate who tells an investigator that he is no longer interested in the
Governor but who is described by the shift commander on the cell block
as being intensely interested each time the Governor appears on the news
might be suspect in other comments about his interests and behaviors.
Similarly, seeking an opinion from a doctor in a mental health unit who
has little contact with a subject about the likelihood that the patient will
try to kill the Governor may prove less useful than interviewing a mental
health worker who frequently interacts with the patient.

Closing a Case

A protective intelligence investigator can close a case when he or she is
able to: 

o Articulate why a subject was originally considered to pose a threat.

o Document changes in the subject's thinking and behavior that negate
the original concerns.

o Describe why the subject is unlikely to pose a future threat to
protected persons.

If postassessment contacts have been made, closing the case involves
ensuring that the subject understands that the protective intelligence
investigator will initiate no further contact. For some subjects, cessation
of contact with the investigator may be a desired goal and a relief; for
others, the thought of ending contact with officials who they viewed as
helping them may be difficult. In most cases, therefore, it makes sense
that discontinuance of contact be gradual, rather than abrupt. Ongoing
contact with other organizations, such as mental health or social services
agencies, can help these subjects function after their contact with the law
enforcement or security organization has ended.

Conclusion

The ECSP has developed knowledge about assassins, attackers, and
near-lethal approachers and about other forms of targeted violence. This
guide has incorporated this information and is offered as an aid for law
enforcement agencies and other organizations to formulate their own
processes and protocols for investigating, evaluating, and managing
people who are considered threats to public officials and figures.

The ECSP underscores an important point: Nearly all citizens of the
United States share the task of preventing assassinations and attacks--
physical protection and protective intelligence are not just the
responsibility of law enforcement and security organizations. The public,
other law enforcement and security organizations, mental health and
social services agencies, the private sector, and the media can help
identify, assess, and manage potential attackers and thus help to prevent
attacks and assassinations.

Notes

1. Fein, Robert A., and Bryan Vossekuil, Preventing Assassination:
Secret Service Exceptional Case Study Project, unpublished report,
Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice
Programs, National Institute of Justice, and U.S. Department of the
Treasury, U.S. Secret Service, 1997. 

2. A near-lethal approacher is defined here as an individual who exhibits
behaviors that suggest he or she is preparing for an attack on another
person and who, without intervention, might attack. Such behaviors
include acquiring a weapon and traveling to a site where the target is
believed to be. An attacker is a person who actually mounts an attack,
while an assassin is a successful attacker.

-------------------------------

To find out more about the National Institute of Justice please contact:

National Criminal Justice reference Service
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
800-851-3420
e-mail: askncjrs.org 

-------------------------------

About the National Institute of Justice

The National Institute of Justice (NIJ), a component of the Office of
Justice Programs, is the research agency of the U.S. Department of
Justice. Created by the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act of
1968, as amended, NIJ is authorized to support research, evaluation, and
demonstration programs, development of technology, and both national
and international information dissemination. Specific mandates of the 

Act direct NIJ to: 

o Sponsor special projects and research and development programs that
will improve and strengthen the criminal justice system and reduce or
prevent crime.

o Conduct national demonstration projects that employ innovative or
promising approaches for improving criminal justice.

o Develop new technologies to fight crime and improve criminal justice.

o Evaluate the effectiveness of criminal justice programs and identify
programs that promise to be successful if continued or repeated.

o Recommend actions that can be taken by Federal, State, and local
governments as well as by private organizations to improve criminal
justice. 

o Carry out research on criminal behavior.

o Develop new methods of crime prevention and reduction of crime and
delinquency. 

In recent years, NIJ has greatly expanded its initiatives, the result of the
Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 (the Crime
Act), partnerships with other Federal agencies and private foundations,
advances in technology, and a new international focus. Some examples
of these new initiatives: 

o Exploring key issues in community policing, violence against women,
violence within the family, sentencing reforms, and specialized courts
such as drug courts.

o Developing dual-use technologies to support national defense and local
law enforcement needs.

o Establishing four regional National Law Enforcement and Corrections
Technology Centers and a Border Research and Technology Center. 

o Strengthening NIJ's links with the international community through
participation in the United Nations network of criminological institutes,
the U.N. Criminal Justice Information Network, UNOJUST (United
Nations Online Justice Clearinghouse), and the NIJ International Center.

o Improving the online capability of NIJ's criminal justice information
clearinghouse. 

o Establishing the ADAM (Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring) program--
formerly the Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) program--to increase the
number of drug-testing sites and study drug-related crime.

The Institute Director establishes the Institute's objectives, guided by the
priorities of the Office of Justice Programs, the Department of Justice,
and the needs of the criminal justice field. The Institute actively solicits
the views of criminal justice professionals and researchers in the
continuing search for answers that inform public policymaking in crime
and justice.