A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research
James R. Mahoney

Department of Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Director, Climate Change Science Program

Chair, Subcommittee on Global Change

Research

Ghassem Asrar,Vice Chair

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

Margaret S. Leinen,Vice Chair

National Science Foundation

James Andrews

Department of Defense

Mary Glackin

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Charles (Chip) Groat

U.S. Geological Survey

William Hohenstein

Department of Agriculture

Linda Lawson

Department of Transportation

Melinda Moore

Department of Health and Human Services

Patrick Neale

Smithsonian Institution

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM and 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

Aristides Patrinos

Department of Energy

Jacqueline Schafer

U.S. Agency for International Development

Michael Slimak

Environmental Protection Agency

Harlan Watson

Department of State

EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND OTHER LIAISONS

Kathie L. Olsen

Office of Science and Technology Policy

Co-Chair, Committee on Environment and

Natural Resources

David Conover

Department of Energy

Director, Climate Change Technology Program

Philip Cooney

Council on Environmental Quality

David Halpern

Office of Science and Technology Policy

Margaret R. McCalla

Office of the Federal Coordinator

for Meteorology

Erin Wuchte

Office of Management and Budget

This document was prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for

Fiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554) and information quality guidelines issued by the Department of Commerce and NOAA

pursuant to Section 515 (<http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/iq.htm>). For purposes of compliance with Section 515,

this climate change science research program is an “interpreted product,” as that term is used in NOAA guidelines.

This document describes a strategic plan for developing scientific knowledge regarding climate change. It does not express

any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or make any findings of fact that could serve as predicates

for regulatory action. Agencies must comply with required statutory and regulatory processes before they could rely on any

statements in this document or by the CCSP as a basis for regulatory action.
Strategic Plan

for the U.S. Climate Change

Science Program

A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research
July 2003

Members of Congress:

Transmitted herewith is a copy of the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program.This document describes the Climate

Change Science Program (CCSP) approach to enhancing scientific understanding of global climate change.This plan is summarized

in a companion document, The U.S. Climate Change Science Program:Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan.

This strategic plan responds to the President’s direction that climate change research activities be accelerated to provide the best

possible scientific information to support public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-related issues.The plan also responds to

Section 104 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which mandates the development and periodic updating of a long-term

national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science and Technology Council.This is the first comprehensive

update of a strategic plan for U.S. global change and climate change research since the original plan for the U.S. Global Change

Research Program was adopted at the inception of the program in 1989.

The President established the U.S. Climate Change Science Program in 2002 as part of a new cabinet-level management structure

to oversee public investments in climate change science and technology.The new management structure also includes the Climate

Change Technology Program, which is responsible for accelerating climate-related technology research and development.The CCSP

incorporates the U.S. Global Change Research Program, established by the Global Change Research Act, and the Climate Change

Research Initiative, established by the President in 2001.The Program coordinates and integrates scientific research on global

change and climate change sponsored by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

The CCSP, under the direction of the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, reports through the

Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and Technology to the cabinet-level Committee on Climate Change Science

and Technology Integration.The chairmanship of these coordinating bodies rotates annually between the Departments of

Commerce and Energy, with the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy serving as the Executive Director of the

cabinet-level committee.

The CCSP strategic plan, though disseminated by the Department of Commerce, was developed through a multi-agency collaboration

and has benefited substantially from external review of an earlier discussion draft by a special committee of the National Academy

of Sciences – National Research Council, as well as extensive public review by hundreds of scientists and stakeholders.The strategic

plan document contains a detailed discussion of the goals and priorities for the program and how climate and global change

research activities will be integrated.

The CCSP strategic plan reflects a commitment to high-quality research that advances the frontiers of science and outlines an

integrated approach for developing an improved understanding of climate change and its potential impacts.The program described

in this strategic plan will meet the highest standards of credibility and transparency to support public evaluation of climate change

issues.

We thank the participating departments and agencies of the CCSP for their close cooperation and support and look forward to

working with Congress in the continued development of these important programs.

John H. Marburger III, Ph.D.

Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy

Executive Director, Committee

on Climate Change

Science and Technology Integration

Donald L. Evans

Secretary of Commerce

Vice Chair, Committee on Climate Change

Science and Technology Integration

Spencer Abraham

Secretary of Energy

Chair, Committee on Climate Change

Science and Technology Integration
Annexes

A. Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .179

B. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .189

C. Graphics and Photography Source Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .191

D. Glossary of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .194

E. Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .200

1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

Introduction

2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

Integrating Climate and Global 

Change Research

3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

Atmospheric Composition 

4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39

Climate Variability and Change

5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53

Water Cycle 

6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change 

7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71

Carbon Cycle 

8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83

Ecosystems 

9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93

Human Contributions and Responses 

to Environmental Change 

10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101

Modeling Strategy

11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111

Decision Support Resources

Development

12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .123

Observing and Monitoring the 

Climate System

13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143

Data Management and Information

14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .151

Communications 

15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157

International Research and Cooperation 

16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .169

Program Management and Review

Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iv

TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter
iv

In February 2002, President George W. Bush announced the

formation of a new management structure, the Climate Change

Science Program (CCSP), to coordinate and direct the U.S.

research efforts in the areas of climate and global change.These

research efforts include the U.S. Global Change Research

Program (USGCRP) authorized by the Global Change Research

Act of 1990, and the Climate Change Research Initiative

(CCRI), launched by the President in June 2001 to reduce

significant uncertainties in climate science, improve global

observing systems, develop science-based information resources

to support policymaking and resource management, and

communicate findings broadly among the international scientific

and user communities.The CCSP aims to balance the near-term

(2- to 4-year) focus of the CCRI with the breadth of the

USGCRP.

This strategic plan has been prepared by the 13 federal agencies

participating in the CCSP, with coordination by the CCSP staff

under the leadership of Dr. Richard H. Moss.The development of

this plan has benefited from the contributions of an extraordinarily

large number of climate scientists and users of climate information.

More than 250 federal government scientists participated in

drafting both the Discussion Draft Strategic Plan published by

CCSP in November 2002, and the revised plan presented in this

document.The CCSP Climate Science Workshop, held in

Washington, DC, in December 2002, provided critique and

suggestions from 1,300 climate scientists and information users

from throughout the United States and 35 other nations. In

January 2003, CCSP received 270 sets of comments from

participants in the workshop and other interested specialists. At

the request of CCSP, the National Academy of Sciences –

National Research Council (NRC) convened an expert committee

to review the Discussion Draft Strategic Plan and the workshop

discussions.The NRC committee provided extensive advice in its

review published in February 2003.

We thank all of those individuals and groups who have

contributed substantially to the completion of this strategic plan,

and we hope that the plan will provide useful guidance for the

continued national investment in climate change science.While

acknowledging the useful contributions of many specialists, the

CCSP interagency team takes responsibility for the plan, and

invites continued correspondence regarding improvements that

should be considered over the months and years ahead.A

prominent web link for receiving and displaying comments will

be maintained at the web site <www.climatescience.gov>. In

view of the evolving nature of science, and in view of the

continuing emergence of key climate change issues, we expect

that periodic updates of selected elements of the strategic plan

will be published when warranted.

James R. Mahoney, Ph.D.

Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere,

and Director, Climate Change Science Program

July 2003

FOREWORD

Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2 Integrating Climate and Global Change Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3 Atmospheric Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4 Climate Variability and Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5 Water Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6 Land-Use/Land-Cover Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7 Carbon Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8 Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9 Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change . . . .

10 Modeling Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11 Decision Support Resources Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12 Observing and Monitoring the Climate System . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13 Data Management and Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

14 Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15 International Research and Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

16 Program Management and Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

CHAPTERS
Introduction 1CHAPTER

1

This Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science

Program describes a strategy for developing knowledge of

variability and change in climate and related environmental

and human systems, and for encouraging the application of

this knowledge.The strategy seeks to optimize the benefits

of research that is conducted, sponsored, or applied by

13 agencies and departments of the U.S. government.These

agencies coordinate their research through the Climate

Change Science Program (CCSP), which incorporates the

U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the

Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI).

Scientists and research program managers from the

13 participating agencies and the Climate Change Science

Program Office drafted the Strategic Plan. It reflects a

commitment by its authors to high-quality science, which

requires openness to review and criticism by the wider

scientific community.The process by which the plan was

drafted proceeded with the transparency essential for

scientific credibility.

External comments have played a key role in revising the

initial draft of the plan. Significant input was received during

the CCSP workshop held in December 2002, in Washington, D.C.,

which was attended by 1,300 scientists and stakeholders.Written

comments on the Discussion Draft Strategic Plan were submitted

during a public comment period.When collated, these comments

amounted to nearly 900 pages of input from scientists and

stakeholders. In addition, a special committee of the National

Research Council (NRC) reviewed the draft plan at the request

of the CCSP.The NRC committee also will submit a final

report on both the content of the plan and the process used to

produce it.

This document is not a detailed blueprint for conducting specific

research projects or applying research results. Research strategies

and implementation plans for specific areas of science are the focus

of detailed planning documents that have already been prepared for

some research elements, and are under preparation for others.

These implementation plans spell out agency roles and provide added

detail on the prioritization and sequencing of research activities.

Annual budget information will continue to be provided through

the program’s annual report to Congress, Our Changing Planet. As a

baseline reference for this Strategic Plan, the overall program

budget is assumed to continue at the level of the FY2004

President’s Budget Request. Actual budget commitments will be

made on an annual basis.

While this document provides overviews of research, it does not

report in detail on past or expected scientific conclusions.

CHAPTER CONTENTS

About the Strategic Plan

Vision and Mission of the Climate Change Science

Program

CCSP Goals*

Core Approaches

CCSP Criteria for Prioritization

CCSP Background Management Overview

Roadmap for the Strategic Plan

*See Chapter 2 for more detail on CCSP goals and deliverables.

About the Strategic Plan
Chapter 1. Introduction Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Climate and climate variability play important roles in shaping the

environment, natural resources, infrastructure, economy, and other

aspects of life in all countries of the world. Potential human-induced

changes in climate and related environmental systems, and the

2

Summaries of the current state of scientific knowledge are available

in a series of reports, evaluations, and assessments conducted by

international and national scientific bodies, as well as in the open

scientific literature.

Brief definitions of the terms used throughout this chapter are listed

in Box 1-1. For a more complete listing of the definitions used

throughout the plan, refer to Annex D.

Adaptation

Adjustment in natural or human systems

to a new or changing environment that

exploits beneficial opportunities or

moderates negative effects.

Climate

Climate can be defined as the statistical

description in terms of the mean and

variability of relevant measures of the

atmosphere-ocean system over periods

of time ranging from weeks to thousands

or millions of years.

Climate Change

A statistically significant variation in

either the mean state of the climate or in

its variability, persisting for an extended

period (typically decades or longer).

Climate change may be due to natural

internal processes or to external forcing,

including changes in solar radiation and

volcanic eruptions, or to persistent

human-induced changes in atmospheric

composition or in land use.

Climate Feedback

An interaction among processes in the

climate system in which a change in one

process triggers a secondary process that

influences the first one. A positive

feedback intensifies the change in the

original process, and a negative feedback

reduces it.

Climate System

The highly complex system consisting of

five major components: the atmosphere,

the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the

land surface, and the biosphere, and the

interactions among them.The climate

system evolves in time under the influence

of its own internal dynamics and because

of external forcings such as volcanic

eruptions, solar variations, and humaninduced forcings such as the changing

composition of the atmosphere and

land-use change.

Climate Variability

Variations in the mean state and other

statistics of climatic features on temporal

and spatial scales beyond those of

individual weather events.These often

are due to internal processes within the

climate system. Examples of cyclical

forms of climate variability include

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),

the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),

and the Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV).

Decision Support Resources

The set of observations, analyses,

interdisciplinary research products,

communication mechanisms, and

operational services that provide timely

and useful information to address

questions confronting policymakers,

resource managers, and other users.

Global Change

Changes in the global environment

(including alterations in climate, land

productivity, oceans or other water

resources, atmospheric chemistry, and

ecological systems) that may alter the

capacity of the Earth to sustain life

(from the Global Change Research Act

of 1990, PL 101-606).

Mitigation (Climate Change)

An intervention to reduce the causes of

change in climate.This could include

approaches devised to reduce emissions

of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere;

to enhance their removal from the

atmosphere through storage in geological

formations, soils, biomass, or the ocean;

or to alter incoming solar radiation

through several “geo-engineering”

options.

Observations

Standardized measurements (either

continuing or episodic) of variables in

climate and related systems.

Prediction (Climate)

A probabilistic description or forecast of

a future climate outcome based on

observations of past and current

climatological conditions and quantitative

models of climate processes (e.g., a

prediction of an El Niño event).

Projection (Climate)

A description of the response of the

climate system to an assumed level of

future radiative forcing. Changes in

radiative forcing may be due to either

natural sources (e.g., volcanic emissions)

or human-induced causes (e.g.,

emissions of greenhouse gases and

aerosols, or changes in land use and land

cover). Climate “projections” are

distinguished from climate “predictions”

in order to emphasize that climate

projections depend on scenarios of

future socioeconomic, technological,

and policy developments that may or

may not be realized.

Weather

The specific condition of the atmosphere

at a particular place and time.

It is measured in terms of parameters

such as wind, temperature, humidity,

atmospheric pressure, cloudiness, and

precipitation.

DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

BOX 1-1 

Vision and Mission

of the Climate Change Science Program
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 1. Introduction

options proposed to adapt to or mitigate these changes, may also

have substantial environmental, economic, and societal consequences.

Because of the pervasiveness of the effects of climate variability and

the potential consequences of human-induced climate change and

response options, citizens and decisionmakers in public and private

sector organizations need reliable and readily understood information,

including a clear understanding of the reliability limits of such

information, to make informed judgments and decisions. Over the

past 15 years, the United States has invested heavily in scientific

research, monitoring, data management, and assessment for climate

change analyses to build a foundation of knowledge for decisionmaking.

The seriousness of the issues and the unique role that science can

play in helping to inform society’s course give rise to CCSP’s

guiding vision:

A nation and the global community empowered

with the science-based knowledge to manage the

risks and opportunities of change in the climate

and related environmental systems.

The core precept that motivates CCSP is that the best possible

scientific knowledge should be the foundation for the information

required to manage climate variability and change and related

aspects of global change.Thus the CCSP mission is to:

Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge

of the Earth’s global environment through research,

observations, decision support, and communication.

CCSP will add significant integrative value to the individual Earth

and climate science missions of its 13 participating agencies and

departments, and their national and international partners. A critical

role of the interagency program is to coordinate research and

integrate and synthesize information to achieve results that no single

agency, or small group of agencies, could attain.

CCSP will develop knowledge that addresses the following basic

questions:

How will variability and potential change in climate

and related systems affect natural environments

and our way of life? How can we use and improve

this knowledge to protect the global environment

and to provide a better living standard for all?

Five CCSP goals have been identified to focus and orient research in

the program to ensure that knowledge developed by the participating

agencies and research elements can be integrated and synthesized to

address these broad questions.

CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past

and present climate and environment, including its

natural variability, and improve understanding of

the causes of observed variability and change

Climate conditions change significantly over the span of weeks,

seasons, years, decades, and even longer time scales. CCSP research

will improve understanding of natural oscillations in climate on

time scales from weeks to centuries, including improving and

harnessing ENSO forecasts, a large-scale climate oscillation with

implications for resource and disaster management. Research will

sharpen qualitative and quantitative understanding of climate

extremes, and whether any changes in their frequency or intensity lie

outside the range of natural variability, through improved observations,

analysis, and modeling.The program also will expand observations,

monitoring, and data/information system capabilities and increase

confidence in our understanding of how and why climate is changing.

Fostering improved interactions and connectivity between research

and ongoing operational measurements and activities will be another

important aspect of the program’s work.

CCSP Goal 2:Improve quantification

of the forces bringing about changes

in the Earth’s climate and related systems

Combustion of fossil fuels, changes in land cover and land use, and

industrial activities produce greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols

and alter the composition of the atmosphere and physical and

biological properties of the Earth’s surface.These changes have

several important climatic effects, some of which can be quantified

only poorly at present. Research conducted through CCSP will

address reducing uncertainty in the sources and sinks of GHGs;

aerosols and their precursors; the long range atmospheric transport

of GHGs and aerosols and their precursors; and the interactions of

GHGs and aerosols with global climate, ozone in the upper and

lower layers of the atmosphere, and regional-scale air quality. It will

improve quantification of the interactions among the carbon cycle,

other biological/ecological processes, and land cover and land use

to better project atmospheric concentrations of key greenhouse

gases and to support improved decisionmaking.The program will

also improve capabilities for developing and applying emissions

scenarios in research and analysis, in cooperation with the Climate

Change Technology Program (CCTP).

CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty

in projections of how the Earth’s climate

and related systems may change in the future

While a great deal is known about the mechanisms that affect the

response of the climate system to changes in natural and human

influences, many questions remain to be addressed.There is also a

high level of uncertainty regarding precisely how much climate will

3

CCSP Goals

A nation and the global community

empowered with the science-based

knowledge to manage the risks and

opportunities of change in the climate

and related environmental systems.

GUIDING VISION

FOR THE CCSP
Chapter 1. Introduction Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

change overall and in specific regions. A primary objective of CCSP

is to develop information and scientific capacity needed to sharpen

qualitative and quantitative understanding through interconnected

observations, data assimilation, and modeling activities. CCSPsupported research will address basic climate system properties,

and a number of “feedbacks” or secondary changes that can either

reinforce or dampen the initial effects of greenhouse gas and aerosol

emissions and changes in land use and land cover.The program will

also address the potential for future changes in extreme events and

uncertainty regarding potential rapid or discontinuous changes in

climate. CCSP will also build on existing U.S. strengths in climate

research and modeling and enhance capacity for development of

high-end coupled climate and Earth system models.

CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity

and adaptability of different natural

and managed ecosystems and human systems

to climate and related global changes

Seasonal to annual variability in climate has been connected to

impacts on ecosystems and many aspects of human life. Longer time

scale natural climate cycles and human-induced changes in climate

could have additional effects. Improving our ability to assess potential

implications on ecosystems and human systems of variations and

future changes in climate and environmental conditions could

enable governments, businesses, and communities to reduce damages

and seize opportunities by adapting infrastructure, activities, and

plans. CCSP research will examine the interactions of multiple

interacting changes and effects (e.g., the carbon dioxide “fertilization

effect,” deposition of nitrogen and other nutrients, changes in

landscapes that affect water resources and habitats, changes in

frequency of fires or pests) to improve knowledge of sensitivity and

adaptability to climate variability and change. CCSP research will

also improve methods to integrate our understanding of potential

effects of different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases

and to develop methods for aggregating and comparing potential

impacts across different sectors and settings.

CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits

of evolving knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate variability and change

Over the last decade, the scientific and technical community has

developed a variety of products to support management of risks and

opportunities related to climate variability and change. CCSP will

foster additional studies and encourage evaluation and learning from

these experiences in order to develop decision support processes and

products that use knowledge to the best effect, while communicating

levels of uncertainty. CCSP will develop resources (e.g., observations,

databases, data and model products, scenarios, visualization products,

scientific syntheses, assessments, and approaches to conduct ongoing

consultative mechanisms) to support policymaking, planning, and

adaptive management.

CCSP will employ four core approaches in working toward its

goals, including:

1) Scientific Research. Plan, sponsor, and conduct research on

changes in climate and related systems

2) Observations. Enhance observations and data management systems

to generate a comprehensive set of variables needed for climaterelated research

3) Decision Support. Develop improved science-based resources to

aid decisionmaking

4) Communications. Communicate results to domestic and

international scientific and stakeholder communities, stressing

openness and transparency.

Each of these approaches is essential for achievement of the CCSP’s

goals.The first two of these approaches will rely heavily on existing

programmatic strengths and mechanisms, while the latter two

approaches will require development of new capabilities and initiatives

over the coming years.

Approach 1: Plan, sponsor, and conduct research

on changes in climate and related systems

Fundamental, long-term research on a broad range of global change issues.

Over the past 15 years, the USGCRP element of CCSP has provided

planning and sponsorship of the world’s most extensive program of

scientific research, monitoring, data management, and assessment

for climate change analyses.

Results of this program include the first ever global characterization

of many aspects of the Earth’s environment; the development of

decadal-scale global observations of a limited number of

environmentally important variables; detailed knowledge of a variety

of processes important in the functioning of the Earth system; the

development of ENSO forecasts and derived products used in

management, planning, and emergency preparedness; and significant

improvement in the capability of models used to project the future

evolution of the Earth system, as evidenced by improvements in

their ability to simulate variability in the present and recent past.

USGCRP accomplishments are evidenced by large numbers of

peer-reviewed scientific papers and other reports; unique data

archives; contributions of U.S.-based scientists to the body of work

produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

and other assessment activities; and increased public awareness of

issues associated with climate variability and change.

A substantial percentage of future CCSP budgets will be devoted to

continuing this essential investment in scientific knowledge, facilitating

the discovery of the unexpected and advancing the frontiers of

research. CCSP agencies will coordinate their work through seven

interdisciplinary research elements that have evolved from the

framework for research presented in Global Environmental Change:

Research Pathways for the Next Decade, a report from the National

Research Council that lays out advances in knowledge needed to

improve predictive capability in Earth system science (NRC, 1999a).

The following “snapshot” of CCSP research elements depicts their

foci at the time of the preparation of this Strategic Plan.The program

will encourage evolution of these research elements over the coming

decade in response to new knowledge and societal needs. Over

time, a greater degree of integration across the research elements

and a greater degree of involvement with users are expected.

Atmospheric Composition.The atmosphere creates a protective envelope

for life on Earth, providing key ingredients for respiration and

4

Core Approaches
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 1. Introduction

photosynthesis and shielding the planet from harmful incoming

radiation. It transports materials globally on rapid time scales, yet it

can retain some pollutants for centuries or longer. Changes have

been observed in relative quantities of key constituents that affect

climate and in processes that affect the composition of the atmosphere

itself (e.g., self-cleansing of pollutants). CCSP-supported research

focuses on how the composition of the global atmosphere is altered

by human activities and natural phenomena, and how such changes

influence climate, ozone, ultraviolet radiation, pollutant exposure,

ecosystems, and human health. Specific objectives address processes

affecting the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer from reduced

ozone levels observed in recent decades; the properties and

distributions of greenhouse gases and aerosols; long-range transport

of pollutants and implications for regional air quality; and integrated

assessments of the effects of these changes. Atmospheric composition

issues involving interactions with climate variability and change—

such as interactions between the climate system and stratospheric

water vapor and ozone, or the potential effects of global climate

change on regional air quality—are of particular interest at present.

Climate Variability and Change. Climate is a crucial aspect of the physical

environment.The historical record of climate shows evidence of

variability on multiple time scales, as well as rapid change. CCSPsupported research on climate variability and change focuses on

how climate elements that are particularly important to human and

natural systems—especially temperature, precipitation, clouds, winds,

and storminess—are affected by changes in the Earth system.

Specific objectives include improved predictions of seasonal to

decadal climate variations (e.g., ENSO); improved detection,

attribution, and projections of longer term changes in climate; the

potential for changes in extreme events at regional to local scales;

the possibility of abrupt climate change; and development of

approaches (including characterization of uncertainty) to inform

national dialogue and support public and private sector decisionmaking.

Global Water Cycle.Water is crucial to life on Earth.Water changes

phase from solid to liquid to gas through a natural cycle that also

transports and converts energy.Water in its different phases affects

the Earth’s radiative balance (e.g., changes in water vapor, clouds,

and high-latitude ice formations are important climate feedbacks).

Humans depend on predictability in the water cycle (e.g., water

works are engineered to operate within certain tolerances of

precipitation, evaporation, flow, and storage), and changes beyond

expectations can have serious implications. CCSP-supported

research on the global water cycle focuses on how natural processes

and human activities influence the distribution and quality of water

within the Earth system, whether changes are predictable, and on

the effects of variability and change in the water cycle on human

systems. Specific areas include identifying trends in the intensity of

the water cycle and determining the causes of these changes

(including feedback effects of clouds on the global water and energy

budgets as well as the global climate system); predicting precipitation

and evaporation on time scales of months to years and longer; and

modeling physical/biological and socioeconomic processes to

facilitate efficient water resources management.

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change. Land cover and use influence climate and

weather at local to global scales. Land surface (cover) characteristics

affect the exchange of greenhouse gases, including water vapor,

between the land surface and the atmosphere, the radiation balance

of the continents, the exchange of sensible heat between continents

and the atmosphere, and the uptake of momentum from the

atmosphere. Land-cover characteristics are key inputs to climate

models. Land cover and use also affect water runoff, infiltration,

and quality; biogeochemistry (including the carbon and nitrogen

cycles); the distribution of microorganisms, plants, and animals; and

other factors. Understanding and projecting observed and future

states of land cover and land use will require close integration of the

natural and social sciences. Research within this program element

will focus on the interactions among changes in land use and land

cover, global change, and socioeconomic factors, including the

predictability of land-use and land-cover change. Specific foci will

identify and quantify the human drivers of land-use and land-cover

change; improve monitoring, measuring, and mapping of land use

and land cover, and the management of these data; and develop

projections of land-cover and land-use change under various scenarios

of climate, demographic, economic, and technological trends.

Global Carbon Cycle.Although water vapor is the most significant

greenhouse gas, increased atmospheric concentration of carbon

dioxide in recent decades is the largest single forcing agent of climate

change. Methane is also a significant contributor. Evidence of

increases in the atmospheric concentrations of these gases since preindustrial times is unequivocal.The natural carbon cycle involves

several reservoirs (the oceans, the biosphere, and the atmosphere)

and is in approximate balance. Relatively small human perturbations

can have major impacts, however, and our knowledge of these and

their implications for environmental change is insufficient to manage

carbon effectively. CCSP-supported research on the global carbon

cycle focuses on identifying the size, variability, and potential future

changes to reservoirs and fluxes of carbon within the Earth system,

and providing the scientific underpinning for evaluating options to

manage carbon sources and sinks. Specific programs and projects

focus on North American and oceanic carbon sources and sinks; the

impact of land-use change and resource management practices on

carbon sources and sinks; projecting future atmospheric carbon

dioxide and methane concentrations and changes in land-based and

marine carbon sinks; and the global distribution of carbon sources

and sinks and how they are changing.

Ecosystems. Ecosystems provide a variety of environmental goods and

services that are necessary to sustain life. For the purposes of this

research plan, ecosystems include agricultural lands, commercial

forests, and other ecosystems that are essential to human survival

and a desirable quality of life. Provision of essential resources

depends on a variety of physical and chemical inputs and is affected

by climate variability and change, and by human influences such as

introduction of nutrients and pollutants and fragmentation of

landscapes. Improving projections of future climate and global

changes depends on developing improved understanding of ecosystem

processes under multiple natural and human influences. CCSPsupported research on ecosystems focuses on: (1) how natural and

human-induced changes in the environment interact to affect the

structure and functioning of ecosystems (and the goods and services

they provide) at a range of spatial and temporal scales, including

those ecosystem processes that in turn influence regional and global

environmental changes; and (2) what options society may have to

ensure that desirable ecosystem goods and services will be sustained

5
Chapter 1. Introduction Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

or enhanced in the context of still uncertain regional and global

environmental changes. Among the specific focus areas are the

cycling of nutrients, such as nitrogen, and how these nutrients interact

with the carbon cycle; key processes that link ecosystems with

climate; and options for managing agricultural lands, forests, and

other ecosystems to sustain goods and services essential to societies.

Human Contributions and Responses. Human activities are an important

influence on the global environment. Human responses to change,

through adaptation and mitigation, will strongly influence whether

environmental changes have positive or negative effects on society.

CCSP-supported research on human contributions and responses to

global change focuses on the interactions of changes in the global

environment and human activities.The current focus of this

research is on the potential effects of climate variability and change

on human health and welfare; human influences on the climate

system, land use, and other global environmental changes; analyses

of societal vulnerability and resilience to global environmental

change; decisionmaking under conditions of significant complexity

and uncertainty; and integrated assessment methods.

Enhanced short-term focus on reducing key scientific uncertainties to support

informed public review of adaptation and mitigation strategies. President

Bush created the CCRI in June 2001, and directed that it focus on

short-term (i.e., within 5 years) actions to reduce high-priority

scientific uncertainties about global climate change where possible,

and to synthesize the available scientific information to support

public discussion of global climate change response strategies. CCSP

manages CCRI activities jointly with its management of the longterm USGCRP studies, using the same interagency management

and scientific working group structures.

Enhanced modeling capacity to accelerate incorporation of new knowledge

into comprehensive climate models and to develop model products for decision

support. Models are an essential tool for synthesizing observations,

theory, and experimental results to investigate how the Earth system

works and how it may be affected by human activities.

Comprehensive climate models represent the current imperfect

state-of-the-science understanding of the major components of the

climate system and the transfer of water, energy, chemicals, and

mass among them. CCSP will foster two complementary streams of

climate modeling activities.The first is a research activity that will

support continued model experiments and accelerate incorporation

of new knowledge into comprehensive climate and Earth system

models. Closely associated with the research activity will be the

sustained and timely delivery of predictive model products for

assessments and other decision support resources.

The challenge is that of balancing fundamental long-term Earth system

research with an enhanced short-term focus on climate change

uncertainties. CCSP will focus attention on key climate change

issues that are important for public discussion, while maintaining

sufficient breadth to facilitate scientific discovery on a broad range

of global environmental changes. Establishing a careful balance

between focus and breadth is essential and will require input from

both decisionmakers and the science community.The NRC has

already played a significant role in shaping the program through a

series of reports and evaluations of the program and is expected to

help establish this balance through future interactions and evaluations.

Approach 2: Enhance observations and data

management systems to generate a comprehensive

set of variables needed for climate-related research

Since the early years of the USGCRP, an expanded program of

global observations has been developed to characterize climate

variability and change on a global and regional basis.These

observations have come from a variety of sources, including

paleoclimate studies interpreting climate parameters over thousands

of years, satellite remote-sensing systems, and numerous in situ

systems at the terrestrial surface (including the polar regions), in

the atmosphere, and in the surface and deep oceans.The suite of

available observations includes long-term observations associated

with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s satellite

monitoring program and global weather observations, which have

not historically been considered as part of the USGCRP; several

long-term surface-based measurement networks operated by the

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Energy,

and other agencies; and several long-running NASA research satellite

series, as well as a large number of limited-duration measurements

obtained during research programs. Satellite observations made

under the USGCRP have provided wide-scale, synoptic measurements

and data sets of the global distribution of important environmental

parameters and their spatial and temporal variability.

Prior and current investments in new observations will significantly

enhance our knowledge of a number of environmental parameters

in the coming years as the promise of these investments is realized.

But two considerations have created a need for enhanced attention

to global and regional observation and data management systems:

(1) The large quantity and diverse format of available observations

requires a major expansion of the capacity to prioritize, quality

assure, archive, disseminate (in useful format), and assimilate the

elements of this extensive record; and (2) the importance of

integrated evaluation of climate and ecosystem parameters calls for

the development of new requirements for integrated observation

systems, followed by system design and implementation.This will

enable the research community to address additional research issues

including ecosystem and land-use/land-cover forcing and feedback

relationships with other climate parameters, and impacts of climate

variability and change on terrestrial and marine ecosystem dynamics,

productivity, and biodiversity.

The United States has taken a leading role in fostering the

development of a more broadly defined and integrated global

observing system for all Earth parameters (e.g., including geological

as well as climate information).The United States is hosting a

ministerial-level Earth Observation Summit in July 2003, with

participation by many developed and developing nations as well as

many intergovernmental and international non-governmental

organizations.This summit will initiate a 10-year commitment to

design, implement, and operate an expanded global observing

system that builds on the major observational programs currently

operated by the United States and many other governments and

international organizations. CCSP agencies have provided the

leadership, definition, and support for the Earth Observation

Summit, and CCSP will closely integrate the U.S. observation and

data management programs with the international programs

launched at the summit.

6
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 1. Introduction

CCSP relies on both research and operational systems.The former

are designed principally to address research questions, both those

posed by CCSP as well as those posed by other federal environmental

research efforts—for example, those of other subcommittees of the

Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (see the CCSP

Background and Management Overview section later in this chapter).

A set of fundamental geophysical parameters must be measured to

describe Earth system processes. A subset of these parameters is

measured on an operational basis to serve other needs such as

weather forecasting. CCSP uses measurements from the best available

sources. CCSP working groups and participating agencies must

explicitly include both research and operational systems in

implementation planning. As many CCSP scientific objectives require

long-term data records, facilitating the transition of responsibility for

mature research observations to operational systems is a key element

of the CCSP observing strategy. CCSP will also adhere to NRC

climate monitoring principles, as well as the Global Climate

Observing System (GCOS) climate monitoring principles for

satellites.

Approach 3: Develop improved science-based

resources to aid decisionmaking

Since the earliest years of the USGCRP and its counterparts around

the world, the use of available scientific information to address key

questions about changes in climate and related systems has

continuously grown in importance.The available scientific

record has been used for many years to improve understanding

of a range of questions, from detecting climate change and

attributing it to particular causes, to applying satellite and groundbased observations and related analyses in resource management

applications. CCSP will build on this record and respond to

significant new demands for additional information resources to

support adaptive management of natural resources, planning, and

policymaking.The program will improve approaches for sustained

interactions with stakeholders that consider needs for information

from a “user perspective.” It will encourage development of new

methods, models, and other resources that facilitate economic

analysis, decisionmaking under conditions of complexity and

uncertainty, and integration and application of information from the

natural and social sciences in specific decision contexts.

Critical to the success of CCSP’s contributions to decision support

are partnerships with a variety of federal and non-federal entities

that rely on the outcomes and products of global change research.

These include the Climate Change Technology Program,

subcommittees of the Committee on Environment and Natural

Resources, and agencies with charters to provide essential public

services, such as weather forecasting, disaster preparedness and

response, management of resources, and enhancement of agricultural

efficiency.

Evaluation and communication of uncertainty and levels of confidence

is a crucial issue for the development of credible decision support

resources. Uncertainties can arise from lack of knowledge, from

problems with data, models, terminology, or assumptions, and from

other sources, creating room for considerable misunderstanding.

CCSP research will contribute to reduction of uncertainty, although

research can also unexpectedly increase uncertainty. Because

uncertainty can never be completely eliminated, CCSP will develop

systematic approaches for assessing and updating levels of confidence

and uncertainty and communicating this information in ways that

are appropriate to the particular decision at hand.This will enable

decisionmakers to understand the uses and limits of the information

they are seeking to apply. CCSP will develop and employ transparent

and systematic approaches for decision support under conditions of

uncertainty, and for evaluating and reporting levels of confidence

and uncertainty, including when uncertainties expand unexpectedly

as the result of research. In addition, CCSP will strive to improve

clarity in understanding how and when uncertainty is likely to be

reduced by different research initiatives.

Approach 4: Communicate results to domestic and

international scientific and stakeholder communities,

stressing openness and transparency

The domestic and international communities addressing global

climate change are already well developed.This is evident in

publications in the scientific literature, IPCC collaborations, and

many other scientific forums; in policy discussions in Washington

and other world capitals; and in the media throughout the world.

CCSP has a major responsibility to communicate with interested

partners in the United States and throughout the world, and to

learn from these partners on a continuing basis. Because of the large

commitment of public resources to CCSP activities, CCSP also has

a responsibility to report its findings in the form of educational

materials suitable for use at various educational and public

information levels, so that the dissemination of its findings will be

effective.

Global climate change is complex and often subject to disputed

interpretations even among scientists. Further, the economic and

policy dimensions of the issue often give rise to even greater

debates among individuals with different policy views. Controversy

about climate change can sometimes be characterized as “public

debate by headlines”—selective citations from the scientific literature,

advocacy-oriented quotations from interested persons (often citing

their own expertise), and other debating tactics. As an essential part

of its mission, CCSP undertakes the significant responsibility of

enhancing the quality of discussion by stressing openness and

transparency in its findings and reports.

CCSP will employ four methods to ensure the credibility of its

reported findings: (1) use of structured analyses (usually questionbased) for CCSP scientific synthesis, assessment, and projection

reports; (2) use of transparent methodologies that openly report all

key assumptions, methods, data, and uncertainties; (3) continuous

use of web-based and other forms of information dissemination so

that CCSP information is freely available to all interested users; and

(4) frequent use of “draft for comment” methods to seek external

review before completion of each key document. CCSP will also

continue to urge all of its sponsored researchers to seek publication

of their findings in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

Some of these credibility-enhancing steps have already been

introduced through the public dissemination and review of the

CCSP Discussion Draft Strategic Plan in November 2002, the open

public workshop with 1,300 participants in December 2002, the

subsequent public comment period, and the invited review by a

committee of the NRC.

7
Chapter 1. Introduction Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Research priorities of USGCRP and now CCSP have progressed over

time as the fundamental scientific issues have evolved. Prioritization

is an ongoing process in the program and reflects changes in needs

and scientific progress and opportunity.The CCSP priorities will be

reviewed on an annual cycle through the budget process.

Initial CCSP priorities have developed in response to a report

requested by the Administration of a National Academies’ NRC

committee.The NRC report, Climate Change Science:An Analysis of

Some Key Questions, characterized areas of uncertainty in scientific

knowledge concerning climate change, and identified research areas

that will advance the understanding of climate change. In particular,

the report concluded that “predictions of global climate change will

require major advances in understanding and modeling of (1) the

factors that determine atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse

gases and aerosols, and (2) the so-called “feedbacks” that determine

the sensitivity of the climate system to a prescribed increase in

greenhouse gases.”The report also noted the limitations of current

observing systems as well as the inadequacy of computational

resources. Finally, the report called for an enhancement of the research

enterprise dealing with environmental change and environmentsociety interactions in order to address the consequences of climate

change and better serve the nation’s decisionmakers.This includes

“support of (a) interdisciplinary research that couples physical,

chemical, biological, and human systems; (b) improved capability to

integrate scientific knowledge, including its uncertainty, into effective

decision support systems; and (c) an ability to conduct research at

the regional or sectoral level that promotes analysis of the response

of human and natural systems to multiple stresses.”

In response to this NRC report, the Administration established the

CCRI “to study areas of uncertainty [about global climate change]

and identify priority areas where investments can make a difference.”

CCRI represents a focusing of resources and enhanced interagency

coordination of ongoing and planned research on those elements of

USGCRP that can best address major gaps in the understanding of

climate change.

Initially, CCRI prioritizes research on three sets of uncertainties

highlighted by the NRC: (1) atmospheric concentrations and effects

of aerosols; (2) climate feedbacks and sensitivity, initially focusing on

polar feedbacks;and (3) carbon sources and sinks, focusing particularly

on North America in the immediate term. These priorities are

discussed more completely in CCRI text boxes found in Chapter 3

(aerosols), Chapter 4 (climate feedbacks and sensitivity), and

Chapter 7 (carbon cycle).

In addition, CCRI will focus on climate observing systems including

efforts to: (a) document historical records; (b) improve observations

for model development and applications; (c) enhance biological and

ecological observing systems; and (d) improve data archiving and

information system architectures.These activities involve substantial

collaboration with the international climate science community and

with several ongoing international monitoring development programs.

Details on these efforts are highlighted in Chapters 12 and 13.

Development of state-of-the-art climate modeling that will help us

better understand the causes and impacts of climate change is also a

CCSP priority. Based on recommendations in several NRC reports on

U.S. climate modeling (NRC 1999b, 2001d) and USGCRP evaluations

(see, e.g., USGCRP, 2000), CCSP agencies are prioritizing new

activities to strengthen the national climate modeling infrastructure.

Details on these efforts are included in Chapter 10.

Finally, in the area of decision support resources, CCSP has identified

over 20 synthesis and assessment products that will focus on key

uncertainties and decisionmaking issues.These are described in

Chapter 2. In addition, through CCRI, the program will develop

additional resources to support national discussion and planning,

adaptive management, and policymaking. Chapter 9 includes a

description of research to develop new methods for use of scientific

information under conditions of complexity and uncertainty, and

Chapter 11 describes CCSP’s decision support activities more broadly.

CCSP Criteria for Prioritization

As the program evolves in response to emerging needs and scientific

opportunities, CCSP will employ the following overall criteria in

establishing priorities for work elements selected for support:

1) Scientific or technical quality

– The proposed work must be scientifically rigorous as

determined by peer review.

– Implementation plans will include periodic review by external

advisory groups (both researchers and users).

2) Relevance to reducing uncertainties and improving decision

support tools in priority areas

– Programs must substantially address one or more CCSP goals.

– Programs must respond to needs for scientific information

and enhance informed discussion by all relevant stakeholders.

3) Track record of consistently good past performance and identified

metrics for evaluating future progress

– Programs addressing priorities with good track records of

past performance will be favored for continued investment

to the extent that time tables and metrics for evaluating

future progress are provided.

– Proposed programs that identify clear milestones for periodic

assessment and documentation of progress will be favorably

considered for new investment.

4) Cost and value

– Research should address CCSP goals in a cost-effective way.

– Research should be coordinated with and leverage other

national and international efforts.

– Programs that provide value-added products to improve

decision support resources will be favored.

CCSP Background

CCSP was created by the President in February 2002, as part of a

new cabinet-level management structure (see Figure 1-1) to oversee

public investments in climate change science and technology.The

new structure also includes CCTP, which is responsible for climate

8

CCSP Prioritization

CCSP Background

and Management Overview
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 1. Introduction

change-related technology research and development. Joint oversight

of CCSP and CCTP is intended to increase the degree of coordination

and integration, and to apply the knowledge created by CCSP to

technology development decisionmaking. CCSP and CCTP report

through the Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science

and Technology (IWGCCST) to the cabinet-level Committee on

Climate Change Science and Technology Integration (CCCSTI).The

IWGCCST membership includes deputy secretary and deputy

administrator level representatives of the relevant cabinet departments

and agencies, and representatives of the Executive Office of the

President including the Office of Management and Budget (OMB),

the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), and the Office of

Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). IWGCCST meets regularly,

supplemented with ad hoc meetings as needed.This structure

oversees a combined annual budget exceeding $3 billion.

CCSP integrates federal research on global change and climate

change, as sponsored by 13 federal departments and agencies (the

Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Energy, Health and

Human Services, the Interior, State, and Transportation; together with

the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Aeronautics and

Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, the Agency

for International Development, and the Smithsonian Institution).

OSTP, CEQ, OMB, and the National Economic Council (NEC)

provide oversight. By leveraging the complementary strengths of

the 13 agencies, CCSP integrates the planning of research and

applications that are implemented by the participating agencies.

In addition to the new management structure instituted by the

President, the National Science and Technology Council and its

subsidiary bodies—the Committee on Environment and Natural

Resources and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

(SGCR)—continue to coordinate climate and global change

research. Agency representation on the SGCR and CCSP is identical

to ensure coordination.

CCSP integrates USGCRP and CCRI.The USGCRP was established

in 1989, and codified in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 as a

high-priority national research program to address key uncertainties

about natural and human-induced changes in the Earth’s global

9

*Chair and Vice Chair of Committee and Working Group rotate annually.

DOS, DOE, USAID,

and Other Agencies

International Activities

(including Task Force

on International Energy Cooperation)

Climate Change Policy and Program Review

by NSC, DPC, NEC

Office of the President

Chair: Secretary of Energy* Vice Chair: Secretary of Commerce*

Executive Director: OSTP Director

Secretary of State

Secretary of Agriculture

EPA Administrator

OMB Director

NEC Director

NASA Administrator

Secretary of the Interior

Secretary of HHS

Secretary of Transportation

Secretary of Defense

CEQ Chairman

NSF Director

Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration

Chair: Deputy/Under Secretary of Commerce*

Vice Chair: Deputy/Under Secretary of Energy*

Executive Secretary: OSTP Associate Director for Science

Members DS/US Level:

CEQ, DOD, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA,

HHS, NASA, NEC, NSF, OMB, USDA

Interagency Working Group on

Climate Change Science and Technology

Director: Assistant Secretary of Commerce

for Oceans and Atmosphere

Members:

DOC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, HHS,

NASA, NSF, OMB, OSTP, Smithsonian, USAID, USDA

Climate Change Science Program

Director: Senior-Level Appointee,

U.S. Department of Energy

Members:

DOC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, HHS,

NASA, NSF, OMB, OSTP, USAID, USDA

Climate Change Technology Program

Figure 1-1:

The Climate

Change Science

and Technology

Programs are

overseen by a

cabinet-level

management

structure of

the U.S.

government.
Chapter 1. Introduction Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

environmental system; to monitor, understand, and predict global

change; and to provide a sound scientific basis for national and

international decisionmaking.The rationale for establishing the

program was that the issues of global change are so complex and

wide-ranging that they extend beyond the mission, resources, and

expertise of any single agency, requiring instead the integrated

efforts of several agencies. USGCRP is organized into a set of linked

research program elements, which together support scientific

research across a range of interconnected issues of climate and global

change. As previously described, CCRI was created in June 2001,

by the President in response to a report prepared by the National

Academy of Sciences at the request of the Administration.The goal of

CCRI is to reduce key uncertainties in climate science and measurably

improve the integration of scientific knowledge, including measures

of uncertainty, into effective decision support systems and

resources. Specific examples of research proposed as part of CCRI

in the FY04 President’s Budget Request are highlighted throughout

relevant chapters of this plan.

Management Overview

The CCSP approach to management integrates the planning and

implementation of individual climate and global change research

programs of the participating federal agencies and departments to

reduce overlaps, identify and fill programmatic gaps, and synthesize

products and deliverables generated under the auspices of CCSP.

Five mechanisms are used to achieve this management approach:

• Executive Direction—IWGCCST/CCSP/SGCR Representatives

Overall priority-setting, program direction, management

review, and accountability to deliver program goals.

• Agency Implementation—CCSP-Participating Departments and Agencies

Conducting research, developing and operating observing systems,

and producing CCSP-required products, often in collaboration

and often as defined or refined in interagency working groups.

• Interagency Planning and Implementation—Interagency Working Groups

Coordinated planning and implementation to align agency

programs with CCSP priorities.

• External Guidance and Interactions—Advisory Groups

External guidance, oversight, and interactions to ensure scientific

excellence, credibility, and utility.

• Program Support—CCSP Office

Value-added staffing and day-to-day coordination of CCSP-wide

program integration, strategic planning, product development,

and communications.

Interaction among the groups responsible for these five mechanisms

is essential, especially to prioritize research efforts and decision

support activities. A more complete description of each of these five

mechanisms and the CCSP management approach can be found in

Chapter 16, Program Management and Review.

The strategy describes the goals of the CCSP and its component

programs and elements, the products that are expected to result,

and the approaches and criteria that will be adopted to implement

the program.The products include data sets, geographic information

systems and other approaches for visualization of data, model studies,

scientific publications, state-of-science reports, assessments,

comparative evaluations of response options (including “If...,

then...” scenario analyses), and other decision support resources.

The plan also identifies enhancements needed in observing systems,

data and information capabilities, modeling, and decision support

resources to meet the program’s goals.

Following this introduction, Chapter 2 describes the approach of

CCSP for planning and sponsoring research on variability and change

in climate and related systems.This approach is based on five overall

CCSP goals and a set of interdisciplinary and interagency research

elements. Integration of research from agency programs and

research elements is an essential component of the development of

synthesis products and assessments that address CCSP goals.The

chapter introduces the cross-cutting goals, as well as related CCSP

deliverables.

Chapters 3-9 provide a more detailed description of the research

elements of the plan.These research elements focus on crucial

components and interactions within the Earth system and have

evolved from recommendations of the research community and the

NRC. Each of these chapters describes research questions; provides

an overview of the current state of knowledge; outlines milestones,

products, and benefits from the research; and identifies needed inputs

from and linkages with other national and international programs.

Chapters 10 and 12-13 describe the cross-cutting issues of modeling,

observations, and data management.These are all areas where

CCSP has substantial existing capabilities, but in which additional

capacity will be developed to achieve the goals that have been set.

Chapter 11 focuses on decision support.This chapter lays out the

goals and strategy for participating in state-of-the-science syntheses

and assessments, and for developing additional resources to support

policymaking, planning, and adaptive resource management.

Chapters 14-16

describe

communications,

international

cooperation, and

management

issues that cut

across all areas of

the program.

This plan was

drafted by

scientists and

research program

managers from

the participating

CCSP agencies

and the Climate

Change Science

Program Office.

10

Lead Authors

James R. Mahoney, DOC

Richard H. Moss, CCSPO

Ghassem Asrar, NASA

Margaret S. Leinen, NSF

James Andrews, DOD

Mary Glackin, NOAA

Charles (Chip) Groat, USGS

William Hohenstein, USDA

Linda Lawson, DOT

Melinda Moore, HHS

Patrick Neale, Smithsonian Institution

Aristides Patrinos, DOE

Michael Slimak, USEPA

Harlan Watson, DOS

CHAPTER 1 AUTHORS

Roadmap for the Strategic Plan
Chapter 2 describes the Climate Change Science Program’s

(CCSP) overall approach to climate research on different

components of the Earth system and the integration of this

research to achieve program objectives.This chapter expands

on CCSP’s five goals (see Chapter 1 and Box 2-1), including

a brief overview of current scientific understanding, and

illustrates the relationship between these goals and the

program’s interdisciplinary research elements and crosscutting activities.Tables listing topics to be covered by

CCSP synthesis and assessment products are included and

indicate the target time frame for completion of each

product.These products will fulfill the requirements for

updated synthesis and assessment contained in Section 106

(“Scientific Assessment”) of the 1990 Global Change

Research Act.

This chapter of the plan also includes research products,

milestones, and activities, which are grouped under

research focus areas for each goal.These are given here as

examples and are not meant to constitute exhaustive lists;

completion dates are not provided in this chapter, but are

in related discussions in Chapters 3-9, and range from

2004 to beyond 2007 (greater than 4 years). Other sections

of this chapter discuss integration of research to give a

comprehensive picture of the cumulative effects of natural

processes and human activities on the future evolution of

climate and related systems.

CCSP’s goals span the chain of climate-related issues including natural

climate conditions and variability; forces that influence climate;

cycles and processes that affect atmospheric concentrations of

greenhouse gases and aerosols; climate responses; consequences for

ecosystems, society, and our nation’s economy; and application of

knowledge to decisionmaking.This comprehensive characterization

provides a useful organizing scheme for examining key climate change

issues. CCSP research must focus on the full range of these complex

issues if it is to lay the basis for informed discussion and decisionmaking.

The following text explains the five CCSP goals.The discussion of

each goal includes a set of topics to be addressed by synthesis and

assessment products related to the goal during the next 4 years, and

examples of key research activities to be carried out in moving

toward the goal, with links to the discussion of research activities in

subsequent chapters. Near-term synthesis and assessment products

will draw on a large body of research either already completed or

currently underway throughout the program, in addition to new

research results as they become available. Over time, CCSP research

activities and the development of new synthesis and assessment

products will evolve in partnership, as scientific research progresses

and as new questions related to policymaking, planning, and adaptive

management arise.

CHAPTER CONTENTS

CCSP Goals and Products

“Critical Dependencies” and Approaches to

Integration

Synthesis and Assessment Products

Integrating Climate and Global Change Research 2CHAPTER

11

CCSP Goals and Products
Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past

and present climate and environment, including its

natural variability, and improve understanding of

the causes of observed variability and changes

The climate system is highly variable, with average conditions

changing significantly over the span of seasons, years, decades, and

even longer time scales. Examining the period since the industrial

revolution, when human activities started to significantly alter the

Earth’s land surface and increase the atmospheric concentrations of

greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, an increasing body of evidence

gives a picture of a warming world and other related changes. A key

issue is whether there is a cause and effect relationship between

12

CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of

the Earth’s past and present climate

and environment, including its

natural variability, and improve

understanding of the causes of

observed variability and change

• Better understand the natural longterm cycles in climate (e.g., Pacific

Decadal Variability, North Atlantic

Oscillation).

• Improve and harness the capability to

forecast El Niño-La Niña events and

other seasonal-to-interannual cycles

of variability.

• Sharpen understanding of climate

extremes through improved

observations, analyses, and modeling,

and determine whether any changes

in their frequency or intensity lie

outside the range of natural variability.

• Increase confidence in understanding

of how and why climate has changed.

• Expand observations and data/

information system capabilities.

CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification

of the forces bringing about

changes in the Earth’s climate and

related systems

• Reduce uncertainty about the

sources and sinks of greenhouse

gases, emissions of aerosols and their

precursors, and their climate effects.

• Monitor recovery of the ozone layer

and improve understanding of the

interactions among climate change,

ozone depletion, and other

atmospheric processes.

• Increase knowledge of the interactions

among pollutant emissions, longrange atmospheric transport, climate

change, and air quality management.

• Develop information on the carbon

cycle, land cover and use, and

biological/ecological processes by

helping to quantify net emissions of

carbon dioxide, methane, and other

greenhouse gases, thereby improving

the evaluation of carbon sequestration

strategies and alternative response

options.

• Improve capabilities to develop and

apply emissions and related scenarios

for conducting “If..., then...”

analyses in cooperation with the

Climate Change Technology

Program.

CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty

in projections of how the Earth’s

climate and related systems may

change in the future

• Improve characterization of the

circulation of the atmosphere and

oceans and their interactions through

fluxes of energy and materials.

• Improve understanding of key

“feedbacks” including changes in the

amount and distribution of water

vapor, extent of ice and the Earth’s

reflectivity, cloud properties, and

biological and ecological systems.

• Increase understanding of the

conditions that could give rise to

events such as rapid changes in

ocean circulation owing to changes

in temperature and salinity

gradients.

• Accelerate incorporation of

improved knowledge of climate

processes and feedbacks into climate

models to reduce uncertainty about

climate sensitivity (i.e., response to

radiative forcing), projected climate

changes, and other related

conditions.

• Improve national capacity to develop

and apply climate models.

CCSP Goal 4: Understand the

sensitivity and adaptability of

different natural and managed

ecosystems and human systems to

climate and related global changes

• Improve knowledge of the sensitivity

of ecosystems and economic sectors

to global climate variability and

change.

• Identify and provide scientific

inputs for evaluating adaptation

options, in cooperation with

mission-oriented agencies and other

resource managers.

• Improve understanding of how

changes in ecosystems (including

managed ecosystems such as

croplands) and human infrastructure

interact over long periods of time.

CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and

identify the limits of evolving

knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate

variability and change

• Support informed public discussion

of issues of particular importance to

U.S. decisions by conducting

research and providing scientific

synthesis and assessment reports.

• Support adaptive management and

planning for resources and physical

infrastructure affected by climate

variability and change; build new

partnerships with public and private

sector entities that can benefit both

research and decisions.

• Support policymaking by conducting

comparative analyses and evaluations

of the socioeconomic and

environmental consequences of

response options.

LIST OF CCSP GOALS

INCLUDING EXAMPLES OF KEY EXPECTED OUTCOMES

BOX 2-1 
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research

these developments.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) and the National Research Council (NRC) have

independently concluded (in the words of the NRC) that “changes

observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to

human activities,” but that “a causal linkage between the buildup of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the observed climate

changes during the 20th century cannot be unequivocally established”

(NRC, 2001a). Uncertainty about natural oscillations in climate on

scales of several decades or longer and inconsistencies in the

temperature profiles of different data sets are critical scientific

questions that must be addressed to improve confidence in the

understanding of how and why climate has changed.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a widely-recognized, largescale climate oscillation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes

phase every few years, with significant implications for resource and

disaster management.There are other climate cycles that last

decades, centuries, and even millennia, as revealed in studies of the

Earth’s climate history. Recently improved (but still imperfect)

capacity to forecast ENSO has yielded significant benefits in the

United States and other countries, enabling decisionmakers to

prepare for impacts.

Improved data and information on the climate system’s natural

variability and recent changes are needed to increase confidence in

studies that seek to detect and attribute changes in climate to

particular causes. Expanded observations, modeling, and data/

information system capabilities will also improve society’s ability to

respond to the fluctuations and changes in the environment—

whether natural or human-induced—that the nation and the world

will face in the next 20 to 30 years and beyond. Substantial amounts

of data are already collected through both an extensive observations

system developed under the U.S. Global Change Research Program

(USGCRP) and a set of operational monitoring systems used for

weather forecasting and other uses (that historically were not

identified as part of the USGCRP). New technologies can extend

existing observation and monitoring networks and improve

accessibility to these data, with benefits for both scientific

understanding and resource management.

Examples of Key Research Activities

Focus 1.1: Better understand natural long-term cycles in climate

[e.g., Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), North Atlantic

Oscillation (NAO)]

• An assessment of potential predictability beyond ENSO (e.g.,

associated with PDV, NAO) and improvements in the

representation of major modes of climate variability in climate

change projection models (Chapter 4.2)1

• Identification of impacts of natural oscillations in climate on

marine fisheries and marine ecosystems (Chapter 8.2)

• Identification of adaptation strategies effective for managing

the impacts of seasonal and year-to-year climate variability

(Chapter 9.2)

13

Figure 2-1: Evolution of the 1997-1998 El Niño event. This figure depicts

water temperature and sea surface topography in the equatorial Pacific

Ocean: (a) January 1997; (b) June 1997; (c) November 1997; (d) March

1998. Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Scientific Visualization

Studio; NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.

a)

b)

c)

d)

1Parenthetical references indicate the chapter and question where additional

information on this research can be found.
CCSP GOAL 1

Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Focus 1.2: Improve and harness the capability to forecast

El Niño-La Niña and other seasonal-to-interannual cycles of

variability

• Improved predictions of El Niño-La Niña, particularly the onset

and decay phases, and improved probability forecasts of regional

manifestations of seasonal climate anomalies resulting from

ENSO (Chapter 4.2)

• An assessment of potential predictability of annular modes,

tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean variability and trends, and the

monsoons (Chapter 4.2)

• Analyses of societal adjustment to climate variability and seasonalto-interannual forecasts (Chapter 9.2)

Focus 1.3: Sharpen understanding of climate extremes through

improved observations, analysis, and modeling, and determine

whether any changes in their frequency or intensity lie outside

the range of natural variability

• Improved observational databases, including paleoclimate and

historical data records, and model simulations of past climate, to

detect and analyze regional trends in extreme events

(Chapter 4.4)

• Observational and statistical analyses to assess the relationships

between extreme events and natural climate variations, such as

ENSO, PDV, NAO/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode and

Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode, and ecosystem response

(Chapters 4.4 and 8.2)

Focus 1.4: Increase confidence in the understanding of how and

why climate has changed

• Development and extension of critical data sets (including

paleoclimatic data) to improve analyses of climate variability and

attribution of causes of climate change (Chapter 4.2)

• Integrated long-term global and regional data sets of critical

water cycle variables such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture,

groundwater, clouds, etc., from satellite and in situ observations

for monitoring climate trends and early detection of climate

change (Chapter 5.1)

Focus 1.5: Expand observations and data/information system

capabilities

• Data requirements analysis and planning

– Requirements analysis for a global integrated climatological,

ecological, and land-use monitoring system, followed by

design specifications for the monitoring system (completed

with significant international collaboration) (Chapter 12)

– Definition of the initial requirements for ecosystem

observations to quantify feedbacks to climate and atmospheric

chemistry, to enhance existing observing systems, and to

guide development of new observing capabilities (Chapters

8.1 and 3.5)

– Definition of the initial requirements for observing systems

to monitor the health of ecosystems, including a new suite

of indicators of coastal and aquatic ecosystem change

(Chapter 8.2)

– Identification and rescue of data that are at risk of being lost

because of media deterioration, poor accessibility, or limited

distribution. (Chapter 13)

• Data systems and products

– Monitoring and data systems for water resources research

and management (Chapter 5.4)

– Development of high-resolution climate data products for

climate-sensitive regions, based on monthly instrumental

data and annual paleoclimatic data and climate forecasts

(Chapter 4.1 and 4.5)

– Implementation of climate quality data and metadata

documentation, standards, and formatting policies that will

make possible the combined use of targeted data products

taken at different times, by different means, and for different

purposes (Chapter 13) 

– Global high-resolution satellite remotely sensed data and

land-cover databases and global maps of areas of rapid landuse and land-cover change and location and extent of fires

(Chapter 6.1)

CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces

bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and

related systems

Combustion of fossil fuels, changes in land cover and land use, and

industrial activities produce greenhouse gases and aerosols and alter

the composition of the atmosphere and important physical and

biological properties of the Earth’s surface. For example, the

atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased

approximately 30 percent since the mid-18th century (see

Figure 2-2).The current level of atmospheric CO2 has not been

exceeded during at least the past 420,000 years (the span measurable

in ice cores). Atmospheric concentrations of other greenhouse

gases [methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (O3), nitrous oxide

(N2O), and halocarbons (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs),

hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons

(HFCs))] have also increased. For example, CH4 concentrations

14

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—

steps for understanding and reconciling 

differences.

Inconsistencies in the temperature profiles of different data sets

reduce confidence in understanding of how and why climate has

changed.

within 2 years

Past climate variability and change in the

Arctic and at high latitudes. 

High latitudes are especially sensitive and may provide early

indications of climate change; new paleoclimate data will provide

long-term context for recent observed temperature increases.

within 2 years

Reanalyses of historical climate data for key

atmospheric features. Implications for

attribution of causes of observed change.

Understanding the magnitude of past climate variations is key to

increasing confidence in the understanding of how and why climate

has changed and why it may change in the future.

2-4 years
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research

have more than doubled and the concentrations of industrially

produced molecules have increased against a zero natural

background. In the case of chlorine, the amount of chlorine in

the stratosphere has essentially quintupled due to this human

release.

These changes have several important climatic effects. Greenhouse

gases (which remain in the atmosphere for years to millennia) have

a warming influence on climate, while aerosols (which usually

remain in the atmosphere for weeks to months) have both warming

and cooling effects that can be quantified only poorly at present

(see Figure 2-3). Research conducted as part of CCSP will reduce

uncertainty about the sources and sinks of GHGs and emissions of

aerosols and their precursors, their climate effects, and the

implications of controls on aerosol emissions for both climate and

air quality at regional and local scales.

Changes in land cover and use affect climate directly—for example

by altering the Earth’s albedo, or reflectivity.They also affect

ecosystems and biological processes that contribute to carbon

sources and sinks, emissions of other greenhouse gases, and the

potential for land use changes to alter regional hydrology. Several

CCSP initiatives, including accelerated research on the carbon cycle

under the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI), will develop

needed information for policymaking and improved carbon

management.

Emissions of some sets of industrial compounds also contribute to

depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer and increased exposure to

ultraviolet radiation (which contributes to skin cancers, eye diseases,

and possibly other environmental problems). Many of these same

ozone-depleting gases are also significant greenhouse gases. CCSP

will monitor the recovery of the ozone layer and long-term changes

in the industrial

compounds and

stratospheric

conditions that bring

about stratospheric

ozone depletion.

Future human

contributions to

climate forcing and

potential associated

environmental

changes will depend

on rates and levels of

population change,

economic growth,

development and

diffusion of

technologies, and

other dynamics in

human systems.These

developments are

unpredictable over the

long time scales

relevant for climate

change research.

However, “If...,

then...” scenario

experiments, if

carefully constructed,

can make it possible to

explore the potential

implications of

different technological,

economic, and

institutional conditions

for future emissions,

climate, and living

standards. Improving

the approach to

developing and using

these scenarios, in

cooperation with

15

170

220

270

320

370

-450,000 -350,000 -250,000 -150,000 -50,000

CO2 Mixing Ratio (ppm)

Years before Present

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (Antarctic Record)

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Maunal Loa, Hawaii

South Pole, Antarctica

CO2 Mixing Ratio (ppm)

Year

Figure 2-2: Direct measurements of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii and the South Pole, and CO2 concentration as

derived from the Vostok Antarctic ice core. Source: Adapted from IPCC (2001a), with Mauna Loa record updated by Dave

Keeling and Tim Whorf, Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

CCTP, is a priority for CCSP.The program will work with CCTP to

explore the climate and related implications of different technology

portfolios in order to provide information for decisionmaking and to

enable the United States to continue its work within the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change. In conjunction with

research on the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical cycles, improved

scenario-based analyses hold the promise of increasing understanding

of potential future forcing of climate, as called for by the NRC.

Examples of Key Research Activities

Focus 2.1: Reduce uncertainties about the sources and sinks of

GHGs, emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and their

climate effects

• Observationally assessed and improved uncertainty ranges of the

radiative forcing of the chemically active greenhouse gases

(Chapter 3.2)

Focus 2.2: Monitor the recovery of the ozone layer and improve

the understanding of the interactions of climate change, ozone

depletion, tropospheric pollution, and other atmospheric issues

• Updated trends of stratospheric ozone and ozone-depleting

gases in the atmosphere (Chapter 3.4)

• Improved quantitative model evaluation of the sensitivity of the

ozone layer to changes in atmospheric transport and composition

related to climate change (Chapter 3.4)

Focus 2.3: Increase knowledge of the interactions among

emissions, long-range atmospheric transport, and

transformations of atmospheric pollutants, and their response

to air quality management strategies

• State of the Atmosphere report that describes and interprets the

status of the characteristics and trends associated with atmospheric

composition, ozone layer depletion, temperature, rainfall, and

ecosystem exposure (Chapter 3.5)

• A policy-relevant evaluation of the issues related to intercontinental

transport, the impact of air pollutants on climate, and the

impact of climate change on air pollutants (Chapter 3.5)

Focus 2.4: Develop information on the carbon cycle, land cover

and use, and biological/ecological processes by helping to

quantify net emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other

greenhouse gases, thereby improving the evaluation of carbon

sequestration strategies and alternative response options

• Improved coupled land-atmosphere models (jointly produced by

the Carbon Cycle,Water Cycle, and Land-Use/Land-Cover

Change research elements) and enhanced capability to assess the

consequences of different land-use change scenarios

(Chapters 5.2, 6.4, and 7.3)

• Report on the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on

local carbon dynamics and the mitigation and management of

greenhouse gases (Chapter 6.4 and 7.3) 

16

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Global Mean Radiative Forcing (Wm-2)

N2O

CO2

Greenhouse Gases

Stratospheric

Ozone

The height of a bar indicates a best estimate of the forcing, and the

accompanying vertical line a likely range of values. Where no bar is present

the vertical line only indicates the range in best estimates with no likelihood.

CH4

Cooling

Halocarbons

Tropospheric

Ozone

Sulfate

Organic

 Carbon

from

FossilFuel

Burning

Black

 Carbon

from

FossilFuel

Burning

Biomass

Burning

Mineral

Dust

Aerosol

Indirect

Effect

Contrails Cirrus

Aviation

Aerosols + Clouds

LEVEL OF SCIENTIFIC

UNDERSTANDING

Warming

Land Use

(albedo only)

Solar

Figure 2-3: Global mean radiative forcing of the climate system and degree of certainty (see Chapter 3 and the Figure 3-2 Annex C entry for more detail).

Source: Adapted from IPCC (2001a).
CCSP GOAL 2

Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research

• Carbon cycle information to quantify the magnitude and variability

of CO2 sources, sinks, and fluxes to support analysis of carbon

sequestration and management in terrestrial and oceanic systems

(Chapter 7)

• Interactive global climate-carbon cycle models that explore the

coupling and feedbacks between the physical and biogeochemical

systems (Chapter 7.4)

• Improved projections of climate change forcings and quantification

of dynamic feedbacks among the carbon cycle, human actions,

and the climate system, with better estimates of errors and

sources of uncertainty (Chapters 3.2 and 7.5)

• Scientific criteria and model tests of carbon management

sustainability that take into account system interactions and

feedbacks and analysis of options for science-based carbon

management decisions and deployment by landowners

(Chapters 7.6 and 3.2)

Focus 2.5: Improve capabilities to develop and apply emissions

and related scenarios for conducting “If..., then...” analyses in

cooperation with CCTP

• Quantify and project possible drivers of land-use change for a

range of economic, environmental, and social values and develop

regional, national, and global land-use and land-cover change

projection models, incorporating advances in our understanding

of drivers (Chapter 6.2 and 6.3)

• Linked ecosystem, resource management, and human dimensions

models that enable scientific evaluation of a wide range of policy

scenarios and assessment of effects on atmospheric CO2

concentration and carbon sources and sinks (Chapters 7.3 and 8.1)

• Scenarios strengthened by an improved understanding of the

interdependence among economic growth; population growth,

composition, distribution, and dynamics (including migration);

energy use in different sectors (e.g., electric power generation,

transportation); advancements in technologies; and pollutant

emissions (Chapter 9.1)

CCSP Goal 3:Reduce uncertainty in projections of

how the Earth’s climate and related systems may

change in the future

While there is a great deal known about the mechanisms that affect

the response of the climate system to changes in natural and human

influences, many basic questions remain to be addressed.There is

also a high level of uncertainty regarding precisely how much climate

will change overall and in specific regions (see Figure 2-4). Current

models project significantly different increases in global average

surface temperature, from approximately 1°C to more than 5°C

during the 21st century.This range of uncertainty incorporates both

different estimates of climate sensitivity (the increase in temperature

that results from a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2,

for example) and a wide range in projections of future greenhouse

gas emissions. A primary CCSP objective is to build on existing

information and scientific capacity to sharpen qualitative and

quantitative understanding through observations, data assimilation,

and modeling activities.

CCSP-supported process research will address basic climate system

properties and interactions, including improving characterization of

the circulation and interaction of energy in the atmosphere and

oceans. It will also seek to reduce uncertainties regarding a number

of “feedbacks” or secondary changes caused by the initial influence

that can either reinforce or dampen the initial effect of greenhouse

gases and aerosols.These feedbacks include changes in the amount

and distribution of water vapor, changes in extent of ice and the

Earth’s reflectivity, changes in cloud properties, and changes in

biological and ecological systems that could significantly change

emissions or absorption of greenhouse gases (see Figure 2-5).

A cause for concern about which there is considerable uncertainty is

the potential for changes in extreme events, and rapid, discontinuous

changes in climate. Such changes could have profound effects on the

environment and human well-being because the time available for

adaptation would be limited.The historical record of past climates

revealed through the study of ancient ice cores and other paleoclimate

data indicates that the climate system can change relatively rapidly in

response to internal processes or rapidly changing external forcing.

Increasing our understanding of the conditions that could give rise

to events such as rapid changes in ocean circulation is a key aspect

of CCSP-supported research.

Incorporation of this basic process-level knowledge into climate and

ecosystems models holds promise for improving our ability to forecast

and project climate phenomena. Climate models seek to quantitatively

17

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions

and concentrations, in collaboration with the

CCTP. Review of integrated scenario

development and application.

Sound, comprehensive emissions scenarios are essential for

comparative analysis of how climate may change in the future,

as well as for analyses of mitigation and adaptation options. 

within 2 years

North American carbon budget and implications for

the global carbon cycle.

The buildup of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere and the fraction

of carbon being taken up by North America’s ecosystems and

coastal oceans are key factors in estimating future climate change.

within 2 years

Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate.

There is a high level of uncertainty about how climate may be

affected by different types of aerosols, both warming and cooling,

and thus how climate change might be affected by their control.

2-4 years

Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances,

ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet

radiation exposure and climate change.

This information is key to ensuring that international agreements to

phase out production of ozone-depleting substances are having

the expected outcome (recovery of the protective ozone layer). 

2-4 years
Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

simulate the behavior of the climate system and its response to

changes in forcing.They vary in complexity and uses, but in the most

complex, various components of the climate system (atmosphere,

oceans, biosphere, hydrosphere, and cryosphere) are coupled

together to study the evolution of the entire Earth system. Research

indicates that there are limits to the predictability of regional- and

local-scale phenomena. At this point, modeled projections of the

future regional impacts of global climate change are often contradictory

and are not sufficiently reliable to be used as tools for planning.

Alternative methods such as use of climate analog scenarios and

weather generators may sometimes be employed for these purposes.

Examples of Key

Research Activities

Focus 3.1: Improve characterization of the

circulation of the atmosphere and oceans

and their interactions through fluxes of

energy and materials

• Improved high-resolution three-dimensional

ocean circulation models and improved

estimates of global air-sea-land fluxes of

heat, moisture, and momentum needed to

discern characteristics of ocean-atmosphereland coupling and to assess the global energy

balance (Chapters 4.2 and 5.1)

• Models of ocean uptake of carbon that

integrate biogeochemistry, ocean

circulation, and marine ecosystem responses

(Chapters 7.2 and 8.2)

Focus 3.2: Improve understanding of key

“feedbacks” including changes in the

amount and distribution of water vapor,

extent of ice and the Earth’s reflectivity,

cloud properties, and biological and

ecological systems

• Results from process studies related to the

indirect effects of aerosols on clouds available

for future assessments of climate sensitivity

to aerosols (Chapter 3.1 and 3.2)

• Quantification of the potential changes in

the cryosphere, including the effects of

permafrost melting on regional hydrology

and the carbon budget, and the consequences

for mountain snowpacks, sea ice, and glaciers

(Chapter 5.2)

• Evaluation of the potential for dramatic

changes in carbon storage and fluxes and

quantification of important feedbacks from

ecological systems to climate and

atmospheric composition to improve the

accuracy of climate projections

(Chapters 7.5 and 8.1)

Focus 3.3: Increase understanding of the

conditions that could give rise to events

such as rapid changes in ocean circulation

due to changes in temperature and salinity

gradients

• State of understanding on the causes of abrupt changes, and

probabilistic estimates of future risks of abrupt global and regional

climate-induced changes, including the collapse of the thermohaline

circulation, persistent ENSO conditions, abrupt sea-level rises,

and the positive feedback associated with high-latitude ice (ice

sheets and sea ice) and their impacts on albedo (Chapter 4.3)

Focus 3.4:Accelerate incorporation of improved knowledge of

climate processes and feedbacks into climate models to reduce

uncertainty in projections of climate sensitivity, changes in

climate, and related conditions such as sea level

18

a) Temperature Indicators

b) Hydrological and Storm-Related Indicators

Ocean

Ocean

Ocean

Ocean

Land

Land

Lower Stratosphere

Troposphere

Near Surface

***Lower Stratosphere Cools

***Troposphere Warms

**Snow Cover

Decreases

***Land Warms Faster

than Ocean ***Air Temperature Warms

***Sea Surface Temperature

Warms Almost Everywhere

**Land Night-Time Air Temperatures

Rise Faster than Day-Time Temperatures

***Land Air Temperatures Increase

***Sea Ice Retreats

Lower Stratosphere

Troposphere

Near Surface

***Tropospheric Water Vapor Increases

**Increase of Tropical

Precipitation Mostly

Over Ocean Areas

*Increase in Tropical Storm

Frequency/Intensity

**Mid- to High-Latitude Precipitation

Increases in Winter

**Subtropical Precipitation Decreases

? Increase in Extra-Tropical

Storm Frequency/Intensity

*** Virtually Certain

(many models analyzed and all show it)

** Very Likely

(a number of models analyzed show it, or change is physically plausible and could readily

be shown for other models)

* Likely

(some models analyzed show it, or change is physically plausible and could be

shown for other models)

? Medium Likelihood

(a few models show it or results mixed)

*** Virtually Certain

(many models analyzed and all show it)

** Very Likely

(a number of models analyzed show it, or change is physically plausible and could readily

be shown for other models)

* Likely

(some models analyzed show it, or change is physically plausible and could be

shown for other models)

? Medium Likelihood

(a few models show it or results mixed)

Figure 2-4: Schematic of changes in temperature and hydrological indicators from projections of

future climate changes from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Source:

Adapted from IPCC (2001a).
CCSP GOAL 3

Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research

• Improved representation of processes (e.g., thermal expansion,

ice sheets, water storage, coastal subsidence) in climate models

that are required for simulating and projecting sea-level changes

(Chapter 4.2)

• Estimates of the spatial and temporal limits of predictability of

climate variability and change forced by human activities

(Chapter 4.2)

• Incorporation of water cycle and carbon cycle processes,

interactions, and feedbacks into an integrated Earth system

modeling framework (Chapters 5.2 and 7.5)

• New observationally tested parameterizations for clouds and

precipitation processes for use in climate models based on

cloud-resolving models developed in part through field process

studies (Chapter 5.2)

• National and global models with a coupled climate-land use

system (Chapter 6.4)

• Improved capability to include and accurately formulate

terrestrial and marine ecosystem dynamics within local and

regional climate models

Focus 3.5:Improve national capacity to develop

and apply climate models

• Continue support of the two high-end climate modeling

centers to respond to the need for scenario-driven

19

Ice Sheet Glaciers

Ocean Circulation, Sea Level,

Biogeochemistry

H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, etc.

Aerosols

Clouds

ATMOSPHERIC

COMPOSITION

WATER

CYCLE

LAND-USE/ LAND-COVER CHANGE

HUMAN

CONTRIBUTIONS

AND RESPONSES

CARBON

ECOSYSTEMS CYCLE

Vegetation

Cities

Transportation

Sea-Ice

Volcanoes

Oceans

Rivers

Agriculture

Land Surface

AtmosphereIce Interaction

Evaporation

Precipitation

Terrestrial

Radiation

AtmosphereBiosphere

Interaction

Vegetation-Soil

 interaction

Industries

Solar

Radiation

Heat

Exchange

CLIMATE

VARIABILITY

AND CHANGE

Figure 2-5: Major components needed to understand the climate system and climate change. Source: Adapted from IPCC (2001a).

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Climate models and their uses and limitations, including

sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis.

Clarifying the uses and limitations of climate models at different

spatial and temporal scales will contribute to appropriate

application of these results.

within 2 years

Climate projections for research and assessment

based on emissions scenarios developed through

CCTP.

Production of these projections will help develop modeling

capacity and will provide important inputs to comparative

analysis of response options. 

2-4 years

Climate extremes including documentation of current

extremes. Prospects for improving projections.

Extreme events have important implications for natural

resources, property, infrastructure, and public safety. 2-4 years

Risks of abrupt changes in global climate.

Abrupt changes have occurred in the past and thus it is

important to evaluate what we know about the potential for

abrupt change in the future. 

2-4 years
Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

climate modeling in support of assessments

(Chapter 10) 

• Support for a Common Modeling Infrastructure to optimize

modeling resources and enable meaningful knowledge transfer

among modelers (Chapter 10)

• Develop a program of focused model intercomparisons and

conduct evaluation and analysis of the model sensitivities of

major U.S. models as well as model validation with available

observational data (Chapter 10)

CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and

adaptability of different natural and managed

ecosystems and human systems to climate and

related global changes

Seasonal-to-annual variability in climate has been connected to

impacts on almost every aspect of human life: agricultural yields,

water resources, energy demand and supply, transportation, price

fluctuations, fishery yields, forest fires, human health and welfare,

and many others. Long time scale natural climate cycles and potential

future human-induced changes in climate could have additional effects,

including altering the lengths of growing seasons, the sustainability

of water resource management systems, the geographical ranges of

plant and animal species, biodiversity, estuarine and ocean productivity,

and the incidence of disturbance regimes that affect both natural

and human-made environments. Potential benefits and risks have

been identified for a number of systems and activities. Improving

our ability to assess potential vulnerability and resilience to future

variations and changes in climate and environmental conditions

could enable governments, businesses, and communities to reduce

negative impacts and seize opportunities to benefit from changing

conditions by adapting infrastructure, activities, and plans.

The potential effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems

and human activities will not be determined solely by their sensitivity

and adaptability, but also by multiple, cumulative interactions

among physical, ecological, economic, and social conditions. For

example, some crops and plants that might otherwise experience

reductions in productivity as a result of changes in climate alone

could actually experience increased growth and productivity as a

result of increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and nutrients

(from deposition and runoff). Other species and ecosystems, which

could adjust to climate change alone, might be endangered when

land use and other factors interfere with adaptive mechanisms such

as migration. Interacting factors must be identified and understood

to develop accurate projections of effects.The CO2 “fertilization

effect” (increased plant growth due to higher atmospheric CO2

concentrations), nitrogen deposition, disturbance (e.g., fire, pest

infestations), land-cover fragmentation (see Figure 2-6), air pollution,

and other factors affect the functioning (e.g., water use efficiency,

biomass allocation) and composition of natural and managed

ecosystems over long periods of time. Similarly, estuarine and

coastal ecosystems face multiple-stressor problems associated with

point source and non-point source pollution, increased sedimentation

resulting from upstream land-use practices, invasive species and

20

Natural Area

Unassociated

Vegetation

Agriculture

Urban Area

Land Cover 1972 Land Cover 1985 Land Cover 1997

1972-1985 1985-1997 1972-1997

Urban +15% +30% +49%

Natural Area -8% -15% -21%

Agriculture -22% -20% -37%

Unassociated Vegetation +147% +23% +203%

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change of Chicago Metropolitan Region between 1972 and 1997

Figure 2-6: Land-cover maps of the Chicago Metropolitan Region. These maps, created with Landsat imagery from 1972, 1985, and 1997, document

changes in several categories of land cover and land use. Source: NASA and Y.Q. Wang, University of Rhode Island.
CCSP GOAL 4

Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research

sea-level rise. Multiple changes affecting marine ecosystems include

natural climate variations (e.g., ENSO cycles and PDV), fishing,

and changes in ocean productivity brought on by uncertain causes.

The interactions are even more complex when one examines the

interactions of biophysical and socioeconomic systems. CCSP

research will examine the implications of multiple interacting

changes to improve projections of effects.

Evaluation of the potential impacts associated with different

atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols is an

important input to weighing the costs and benefits associated with

different climate policies. Further research is required to integrate

still limited understanding of effects of different concentration levels,

and the influence of human activities on concentrations, and to

develop methods for aggregating and comparing impacts across

different sectors and settings.

Examples of Key Research Activities

Focus 4.1: Improve knowledge of the sensitivity of ecosystems

and economic sectors to global climate variability and change

• Results from field and modeling experiments to study the role

of mountain environments on precipitation and runoff production

(Chapter 5.3)

• Downscaling techniques, such as improved regional climate

models, for improved evaluation of potential water resource

impacts arising from climate variability and change (Chapter 5.3)

• Reports on past and projected trends in land cover or land use

that are attributable to changes in climate (e.g., changes in forest

type, changes in agriculture) (Chapter 6.4)

• Ecosystem observations, coupled physical-biological models,

indicators, and reports to permit better assessment of the

potential consequences of global and climatic changes on selected

arctic, alpine, wetland, riverine, and estuarine and marine

ecosystems; selected forest and rangeland ecosystems; selected

desert ecosystems; and the Great Lakes (Chapter 8.2)

• Development of data and predictive models determining the

sensitivity of selected organisms and their assemblages to changes

in ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation and other environmental

variables relative to observations of UV-B radiation in terrestrial,

aquatic, and wetland habitats (Chapter 8.2)

• Assessments of the potential economic impacts of climate change

on the producers and consumers of food and fiber products

(Chapters 8.2 and 9.2)

Focus 4.2: Identify and provide scientific inputs for evaluating

adaptation options, in cooperation with mission-oriented

agencies and other resource managers

• Data and models demonstrating how different adaptation strategies

in croplands and commercial forests affect the sustainability of

these ecosystems in changing environmental conditions and

their ability to meet human demands (Chapter 8.3) 

• Initiation of development of decision support tools relevant to

regions where abrupt changes or threshold ecological responses

may occur, especially high-altitude and high-latitude ecosystems

and transitional zones between ecosystems (i.e., ecotones) such

as forest-grassland, agriculture-native prairie, riparian and coastal

zones, coastal-oceanic boundaries, and rural-urban interfaces

(Chapter 8.3)

• Data sets and spatially explicit models for examining effects of

management and policy decisions on a wide range of terrestrial

and marine ecosystems to predict the efficacy and tradeoffs of

management strategies at varying scales, and preliminary

comparisons of the effectiveness of selected management

practices (Chapter 8.3)

• Analysis of potential impacts of climate variability and change on

transportation infrastructure and operations, and preliminary

21

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea-level rise. Evaluation of how well equipped society is to cope with potential

sea-level rise can help reduce vulnerability. within 2 years

State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that

could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in

some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources.

This approach seeks to determine how much climate change natural

environments and resources can withstand before being adversely

affected. 

2-4 years

Relationship between observed ecosystem

changes and climate change.

Earlier blossoming times, longer growing seasons, and other

changes are being observed, and this report will explore what is

known about why these events are happening.

2-4 years

Preliminary review of adaptation options for climatesensitive ecosystems and resources.

Understanding of adaptation options can support improved resource

management—whether change results from natural or human causes—

and thus helps realize opportunities or reduce negative impacts.

2-4 years

Scenario-based analysis of the climatological,

environmental, resource, technological, and

economic implications of different atmospheric

concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Knowing how well we can differentiate the impacts of different

greenhouse gas concentrations is important in determining the

range of appropriate response policies.

2-4 years

State-of-the-science of socioeconomic and

environmental impacts of climate variability.

This product will help improve application of evolving ENSO forecasts

by synthesizing information on impacts, both positive and negative,

of variability.

2-4 years

Within the transportation sector, a summary of

climate change and variability sensitivities,

potential impacts, and response options.

Safety and efficiency of transportation infrastructure—much of which

has a long lifetime—may be increased through planning that takes

account of sensitivities to climate variability and change.

2-4 years
Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

development of decision support tools relevant to transportation

decisionmakers (Chapter 9.2)

Focus 4.3: Improve understanding of how changes in ecosystems

(including managed ecosystems such as croplands) and human

infrastructure interact over long periods of time 

• Evaluations of the effects of water cycle variability and change

on trends in water quality conditions (Chapter 5.4)

• Data from field experiments quantifying aboveground and

belowground effects of elevated CO2 concentration in

combination with other environmental changes on the structure

and functioning of agricultural, forest, and aquatic ecosystems

(Chapters 7.5 and 8.2)

• Examination of responses of ecosystems (including any changes in

nutrient cycling) to combinations of elevated CO2 concentration,

warming, and altered hydrology, with data collection underway

(Chapter 8.2)

• Analysis of the global occurrence, extent, and impact of major

disturbances (e.g., fire, insects, drought, and flooding) on land

use and land cover (Chapter 6.1)

• Identification of the regions in the United States where land-use

and climate change may have the most significant implications

for land management (Chapter 6.5)

• Spatially explicit ecosystem models at regional to global scales,

to improve our understanding of contemporary and historical

changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and synthesis

of known effects of increasing CO2, warming, changes in

precipitation, and other factors (e.g., increasing tropospheric

ozone) on terrestrial ecosystems (Chapter 8.2)

• Estimates of the value of the ancillary benefits (e.g., enhanced

wildlife habitat and improved water quality) that could result

from implementing various mitigation and adaptation activities

within the forestry sector (Chapters 8.3 and 9.2)

• Next phase of assessments of the health effects of combined

exposures to climatic and other environmental factors (e.g., air

pollution) (Chapter 9.4)

CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits

of evolving knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate variability and change

The first four CCSP goals focus on the key issues of understanding

natural climate conditions and variability, forces that influence climate,

climate responses, and implications for human systems and natural

environments. CCSP research will focus on this full range of issues

in order to lay the basis for informed discussion and decisionmaking.

The fifth CCSP goal focuses on the way that this scientific information

is used for support of decision needs.

Over the last decade, USGCRP has enlisted federal and external

experts to develop a variety of products and resources for decision

support.These include methods and tools for integrated assessment

(including a variety of quantitative integrated assessment models);

state-of-science syntheses and assessments of climate variability and

change; international assessments of stratospheric ozone depletion;

applications of Earth science observations and data; experiments for

application of ENSO forecasts in a variety of regions and economic

sectors; and advisory committee assessments of the potential

vulnerabilities and opportunities arising from climate change in

different regions and sectors of the United States.

These products of the first decade have evoked much commentary,

both positive and negative. Formal evaluations of the processes and

products of some of these activities have been conducted by the

NRC. CCSP’s decision support activities will respond to the relevant

recommendations of the NRC in reports such as Global

Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC,

1999a), Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key Questions

(NRC, 2001a), and The Science of Regional and Global Change: Putting

Knowledge to Work (NRC, 2001e).The program will also encourage

further evaluation and learning from these experiences in order to

structure decision support processes and products that use existing

knowledge to the best effect while communicating the limits of this

knowledge.

CCSP activities in support of its fifth goal will improve the nation’s

and global community’s understanding of the nature and extent of

the challenges inherent in climate change and develop improved

resources for evaluating options for adaptation and mitigation.

Fulfilling this goal will require development of a variety of resources

including observations, databases, data and model products, scenarios,

a variety of visualization products, and improved approaches for

interacting with users. Research in many of the program elements

holds promise of yielding decision support information and products.

Improved resources for decision support also require a concerted

focus on the processes through which information is developed and

applied to support decisionmaking in different areas.

Areas of decisionmaking to be supported by CCSP include adaptive

management, planning, and policy. Each of these categories will

have its own unique set of stakeholders and will require different

decision support processes and tools that will be recognized in the

implementation of CCSP decision support activities. CCSP will

engage both decisionmakers and members of the research community

in the development of processes well suited to both the state-ofscience and decisionmaking needs. In addition to supporting

decisionmaking, the decision support activities of CCSP will also

help to identify key knowledge gaps and provide feedback to

researchers that will guide the evolution of the CCSP agenda.

Examples of Key Research Activities

Focus 5.1: Support informed public discussion of issues of

particular importance to U.S. decisions by conducting research

and providing scientific synthesis and assessment reports 

• Contribute to and participate in international assessments on

climate change, ozone depletion, and other issues as they arise

(multiple chapters)

• Produce a number of synthesis reports and assessments that

integrate research results focused on identified science and

decision issues in association with stakeholders and researchers

to meet the requirements of the Global Change Research Act

(multiple chapters)

Focus 5.2: Support adaptive management and planning for

resources and physical infrastructure sensitive to climate variability

and change; build new partnerships with public and private

sector entities that can benefit both research and decisionmaking

• Increased partnerships with existing user support institutions,

such as state climatologists, regional climate centers, agricultural

22
CCSP GOAL 5

Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research

extension services, resource management agencies, and state

and local governments to accelerate uses of climate knowledge

(Chapter 11)

• Assess the adequacy of existing operational climate monitoring

networks to provide regional decision support, and to identify

major data gaps in addressing critical regional and policy issues,

such as drought planning and response (Chapter 4.5)

• Conduct and analyze decision support experiments using

observations, integrated data sets, forecasts of seasonal

climate variability, and longer term model projections

(multiple chapters)

• Develop and apply frameworks for assessing the uses and limits

of current regional-scale information (multiple chapters)

Focus 5.3: Support policymaking by conducting comparative

analyses and evaluations of the socioeconomic and environmental

consequences of response options 

• Improve stakeholder involvement in articulating and framing all

aspects of policy support activities including question formulation,

study design, and transparent review involving stakeholders

(Chapter 11)

• Strengthen capacity and conduct “If..., then...” scenario analyses

(Chapter 11 and through cooperation with CCTP)

• Develop and apply additional methods for integrated assessment

and comparative analyses (Chapters 9 and 11)

The interdisciplinary research elements of CCSP partition the

overall Earth system and the issue of climate change into discrete

and manageable sets of research problems.While partitioning the

problem is necessary for both research and program management

purposes, it carries with it the potential to divert attention from

critical questions that are beyond the scope of the individual

research elements, instead emphasizing lower priority issues that

reside completely within a single research area.Thus, a key challenge

facing CCSP is engaging in integrated planning that “puts back

together” the pieces of the Earth system and fosters problem-driven

interdisciplinary research.This is especially true for “critical

dependencies,” topics for which progress in one research element is

only possible if related research is first completed in other areas.

23

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts,

and other projections in decision support for selected

sectors and regions.

There is a great need for regional climate information; further

evaluation of the reliability of current information is crucial in

developing new applications.

within 2 years

Best-practice approaches to characterize,

communicate, and incorporate scientific uncertainty

in decisionmaking.

Improvements in how scientific uncertainty is evaluated and

communicated can help reduce misunderstanding and

misuse of this information.

within 2 years

Decision support experiments and evaluations using

seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational

data.

Climate variability is an important factor in resource planning

and management; improved application of forecasts and data

can benefit society.

within 2 years

“Critical Dependencies”

and Approaches to Integration

CCSP will need to foster integration across research elements and

disciplines; among basic research and supporting activities such as

observations, modeling, and data management; in the development

of comprehensive climate models; and between participating

departments and agencies if it is to achieve its objectives.

“Critical Dependencies”

among the Research Elements

Scientifically, integration is essential for understanding how the

Earth system functions and will evolve in response to future forcing.

This is because of the inherent interconnectedness among

components of the Earth system. In particular, the existence of

feedback loops in the Earth system creates the need to work across

disciplinary boundaries. For some issues, it will be necessary to

coordinate and integrate across all of the CCSP program elements.

One example that illustrates how the different research elements

may help address a key uncertainty is given in Box 2-2, focused

on the question of the evolution of the global distribution of

atmospheric methane.

Because the components of the Earth system interact continuously,

research in one program element often has a critical dependency with

work in other elements. Critical dependencies can involve insights

from process studies, data flows, model components, and other

research and operational activities.

The most obvious set of critical dependencies is in the area of

observational data. In many cases, observations of the underlying

physical state of the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation

history) are required before questions about climate or global

change can be addressed. Another example is information on land

cover and land use, which also forms the basis for many studies of

hydrology, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems research.

Chapters 3-9 describe both the inputs that each research element

needs from other program elements and the products that each

expects to produce to support goals in other research areas. A

challenge for CCSP will be to coordinate production of

information required to satisfy these critical dependencies so

that they meet requirements and are sequenced properly. CCSP

will coordinate development of implementation plans for the

research elements to meet this challenge. Box 2-3 lists

illustrative examples of “critical dependencies” from the research

elements.
Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Coordination of Research and

Supporting Activities

Just as meeting CCSP objectives will require integration across the

research elements described in Chapters 3-9, so will it require

coordination and integration of the different approaches employed

by the scientific community in addressing these major challenges—

basic research, surface-based networks, field-based process studies,

global satellite observations, computational modeling, data

management, assessment, and decision support. It is worth

emphasizing that many of the surface-based networks and some of

the global satellite observations are carried out as part of operational

monitoring programs not previously considered as part of

USGCRP, and which may not even now be identified in the CCSP

budget. Clearly, our nation’s effort to provide comprehensive,

integrated answers to the questions posed in this plan will require

integrated use of all such data and approaches.

Basic research provides the intellectual framework of the entire

global change research enterprise. From laboratory descriptions of

critical physical, chemical, and biological processes, to

determination of appropriate standards and calibration procedures,

to approaches for simulation, analysis, visualization, etc., of data,

research serves as the basis on which advances in observing and

modeling depend. It also includes the necessary social science and

related research that provides the data and models needed to

include effects of human inputs and response into the CCSP

program.

24

In order to improve understanding of

current and projected atmospheric

concentrations of methane, it is essential

to integrate results obtained through the

different CCSP science elements.This

includes pulling together information on

the initial concentration, the sources of

additional emissions, the processes that

transport it, and the removal processes.

Each of the research elements will

contribute the following information:

• Atmospheric Composition.

Measurement of methane’s

distribution in the atmosphere is by

definition the starting point for

assessing the evolution of its future

concentrations. Since the major

removal process for methane from

the atmosphere is its oxidation by

hydroxyl (OH), assessment of the

distribution of OH, including its

spatial and temporal variation, is also

required.The inverse modeling that is

used to help infer source distributions

is also part of this research element.

• Climate Variability and Change.

The climate system circulates

methane from its source regions and

distributes it uniformly around the

globe. Climate also determines

temperature, which affects both

methane emissions and the rate at

which it is removed through oxidation

by OH (one of the more temperaturedependent reactions that affects

atmospheric composition).This

research element also provides 

estimates of future changes in surface temperatures at high latitudes.

These estimates are important for

determining the likelihood that

methane tied up in the surface at

high latitudes could be released.

• Carbon Cycle. Although methane

is less abundant than carbon dioxide,

its contribution to atmospheric

radiative forcing is significant due to

its much greater radiative impact per

molecule. Carbon cycle studies

estimate the overall release and

uptake of methane, provide the

context necessary for interpreting

measurements and estimates of

methane release and removal, and

incorporate advanced understanding

of process controls on methane

uptake and release from the land and

oceans into carbon cycling models.

• Water Cycle.Water plays a crucial

role in helping to establish the

conditions under which methane is

emitted, and it also is a crucial

precursor to OH, which removes

methane from the atmosphere.

Water availability also affects the

magnitude and rate of emissions

from agricultural sources (e.g., rice

cultivation), landfills, and other

land-based sources.

• Land-Cover/Land-Use Change.

Some land uses are associated with

methane emissions. For example,

methane is emitted from rice

cultivation and natural wetlands, and

is removed from the atmosphere by

vegetation and soils. Improved

understanding of how land is used in

different locations, as well as how

land uses might change over time, is

crucial to estimating current and

projecting future emissions.

• Ecosystems.The production of

methane from biological processes

can be traced to microbial processes,

and the ecosystems research element

provides the knowledge base for

carrying out relevant studies of the

biology that underlies methane

production and its emission to the

atmosphere.

• Human Impacts. Methane is

emitted by many human activities,

including agricultural practices such

as raising livestock and growing rice,

waste disposal practices in landfills

and other sites, and the production

and transportation of coal, natural

gas, and oil.The amount of methane

emitted by these activities depends

on basic characteristics of the

emission processes as well as the

management practices that are

employed.These have changed and

will continue to change over time

and hence must be considered in

estimating current and projecting

future emissions.

INTEGRATING ACROSS RESEARCH ELEMENTS

TO IMPROVE PROJECTIONS OF

METHANE EMISSIONS AND CONCENTRATIONS

BOX 2-2
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research

Surface-based monitoring networks provide a distributed, accurate, and

potentially high-frequency method for obtaining environmental data.

They also allow the network managers to concentrate observing

power in regions where it is most needed. As noted above, many of

these are managed as part of operational monitoring programs and do

not report as part of USGCRP.They also provide critical validation

information for satellite-derived observations.

Field-based process studies allow the combined use of surface-based

measurements and transportable platforms (ships, aircraft, balloons,

etc.), and also provide opportunities to define intermediate spatial

scales between the local scales best studied with surface-based

networks and the larger spatial scales typically observed with satellite

instruments. By virtue of being able to comprehensively sample a

large number of environmental variables associated with a particular

issue, they are excellent for providing data sets that can be used to

quantitatively test process models that ultimately support the

development of parameterizations that can be incorporated into

larger scale models.

Global satellite observations allow for frequent observations over most

if not all of the Earth’s surface, and allow one to make measurements

in regions for which in situ data are not available. Successful

implementation of satellite observing programs requires validation

with surface-based networks and with more focused in situ

observations. Process representation in models will be derived from

knowledge gained in the field-based process studies. It is important

that research observations be integrated with those of operational

monitoring programs not traditionally considered part of

USGCRP.

Computational modeling provides a way in which information about

the potential future of one or more elements of the Earth system

can be expected to evolve, based on assumptions about naturally

occurring and human-induced forcings.The models to be used in

this way can be tested in a retrospective sense by comparing

observed data on Earth system evolution (obtained from surfaceand space-based observing systems as well as field-based process

studies) and the known forcings; conversely, the models can also be

used in an inverse set with the observations to infer present and

historical forcings. Computational models can also be integrated

with observational data in data assimilation systems to provide

accurate and geophysically (and increasingly biogeochemically)

consistent data sets of the distribution and fluctuations of key

25

Chapter 3. Atmospheric

Composition

• Radiative forcing input parameters to

climate model simulations—

Climate Variability and Change

• Characterization of other

composition-climate processes (e.g.,

impact of aerosols on cloud formation

and precipitation)—Water Cycle

Chapter 4. Climate

Variability and Change

• Cloud/water vapor feedback processes

in the context of the coupled climate

system models—Water Cycle

• Environmental condition predictions/

estimates—Land-Use/Land-Cover

Change, Carbon Cycle, and Ecosystems

Chapter 5.Water Cycle 

• Long-range prediction capability for

drought and flood risks (seasonal-tointerannual time scales)—

Climate Variability and Change

• Quantification of the potential

impact of changes in permafrost on

regional hydrology and the carbon

budget—Carbon Cycle

Chapter 6. Land-Use/

Land-Cover Change

• Analysis of the effects of historical

and contemporary land use on

carbon storage and release across

environmental gradients—

Carbon Cycle

• Quantification and projection of

possible drivers of land-use change for

a range of economic, environmental,

and social values—Ecosystems,

Carbon Cycle, and Human Contributions

and Responses 

Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle

• Quantitative estimates of carbon

fluxes from managed and unmanaged

ecosystems in North America and

surrounding oceans, with regional

specificity—Water Cycle, Ecosystems,

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change, and

Climate Variability and Change

• Evaluation of the environmental

effects of mitigation options—

Ecosystems, Human Contributions and

Responses, and Land-Use/Land-Cover

Change

Chapter 8. Ecosystems

• Information about ecological inputs

to atmospheric composition through

greenhouse gas exchanges between

the atmosphere and ecosystems—

Atmospheric Composition

• Information about energy exchanges

between ecosystems and the

atmosphere for inclusion in general

circulation models—

Climate Variability and Change

• Analysis of effects of global change

on ecosystem goods and services—

Human Contributions and Responses

Chapter 9. Human Contributions

and Responses to

Environmental Change

• Improved modeling frameworks that

better link general circulation,

ecological, and economic models of

the agricultural and forestry sectors—

Water Cycle, Ecosystems, Land-Use/LandCover Change, and Climate Variability

and Change

SELECTED EXAMPLES OF CRITICAL DEPENDENCIES

TO BE SUPPORTED BY EACH RESEARCH ELEMENT

BOX 2-3
Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

environmental variables.The assimilation process is also critical for

initializing the global models and for their evaluation.

Data management is a critically important CCSP component for two

reasons. First, it is necessary to provide active, long-term stewardship

for the large volumes and multiplicity of types and sources of data.

Second, it provides the means to distribute the data to a growing

group of users, going far beyond the traditional scientific research

community to the broader set of users who are making the policy

and resource management decisions.

Scientific assessment provides the opportunity for researchers to go

back and critically assess the status of their knowledge, sharpen the

questions they are trying to answer, then provide a “feedback loop”

to the research process so that the research of the future will

better identify and address key uncertainties and knowledge gaps.

Part of the assessment process may involve detailed study of the

observational data sets, process knowledge, or modeling systems

developed under CCSP to resolve discrepancies and competing

approaches. End-to-end assessment is broader in that it can involve

going back to the basic building blocks of a research area, assessing

status and progress, and then looking at the implications of the

results of this analysis for a variety of end states, including many

relevant decision support applications. Assessment used to support

decisions is an iterative analytic process that engages both

researchers and interested stakeholders in the evaluation and

interpretation of the interactions of natural and socioeconomic

systems.These assessments typically consist of four elements:

problem formulation, analysis, characterization of consequences,

and communication of results.

Decision support is the set of processes that includes interdisciplinary

research, product development, communication, and operational

services that provide timely and useful information to address

challenges and questions confronting those who need to make policy

and/or resource management decisions. In addition to the emphasis

on the quality and robustness of scientific information for providing

decision support, there is typically a premium on timeliness,

resolution, comprehensiveness, and effective communication of levels

of scientific confidence and certainty.

Models as Integrating Tools

Computational models are particularly important in integrating

our knowledge of the Earth system, providing both a quantitative

way of assessing the accuracy of the system and of projecting its

future evolution (see Figure 2-7). It is important that the models

used for projecting future conditions include the full range of

processes linking the Earth system’s components, and thus the

feedback processes that are so important in determining the

Earth’s behavior. Such models become complex, requiring the

integration efforts of large teams of scientists (both Earth system

scientists and computational scientists), and require significant

amounts of computing capability, together with human and

data resources for the archiving and distributing of their

results.

26

Atmosphere

Dynamic

Vegetation

Dynamic

Vegetation

Ocean & Sea

Ice Model

Sulfur Cycle

Model

Non-Sulfate

Aerosol

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Dynamic

Vegetation

Carbon

Cycle

Carbon

Cycle

Non-Sulfate

Aerosol

Non-Sulfate

Aerosol

Sulfate

Aerosol

Sulfate

Aerosol

Sulfate

Aerosol

Ocean &

Sea Ice

Ocean &

Sea Ice

Ocean &

Sea Ice

Ocean &

Sea Ice

Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere

Ocean Carbon

Cycle Model

Carbon

Cycle Model

Land Carbon

Cycle Model

Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present Day Early 2000s?

Figure 2-7: The development

of climate models over the

last 25 years showing how the

different components are first

developed separately and

later coupled into

comprehensive climate

models. Source: IPCC (2001a).
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research

These models should have a number of important attributes:

• They should adequately represent the state of the Earth system

and its prior evolution, in particular over the recent past, when

there is a more comprehensive set of observations with which to

compare the models and where better knowledge of the types

and amounts of naturally occurring and human-induced forcings

is available.

• They should be sufficiently comprehensive that they can be

applied confidently over the period of interest.This is particularly

crucial for longer simulations. For example, detailed representation

of the partitioning of carbon among the atmosphere, the ocean,

and terrestrial ecosystems will be crucial to representing

future distributions of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its

concomitant contribution to radiative forcing and climate

change. Human interactions must also be included in models

operating over time scales that are influenced by human

activities.The CCSP strategy for adding comprehensiveness to

these models is outlined in some detail in Chapter 10 of this

plan.

• They should be constructed to provide information at the

desired spatial resolution.

• They should be able to be run in sufficient number and in

sufficiently short time that their results can be provided to

scientific, policy, and decisionmaking users.

27

Summary of Synthesis and Assessment Products – Topics to be Covered

CCSP GOAL 1 Extend knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve

understanding of the causes of observed changes

within 2 years Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—steps for understanding and reconciling differences.

within 2 years Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes.

2-4 years Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change.

CCSP GOAL 2 Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems

within 2 years Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with CCTP. Review of integrated scenario

development and application.

within 2 years North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle.

2-4 years Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate.

2-4 years Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and

climate change.

CCSP GOAL 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future

within 2 years Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis.

2-4 years Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through CCTP.

2-4 years Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes. Prospects for improving projections.

2-4 years Risks of abrupt changes in global climate.

CCSP GOAL 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related

global changes

within 2 years Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea-level rise.

2-4 years State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climatesensitive resources.

2-4 years Relationship between observed ecosystem changes and climate change.

2-4 years Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources.

2-4 years Scenario-based analysis of the climatological, environmental, resource, technological, and economic implications of different

atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

2-4 years State-of-the-science of socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate variability.

2-4 years Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability sensitivities, potential impacts, and response options.

CCSP GOAL 5 Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and

change

within 2 years Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions.

within 2 years Best-practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking.

within 2 years Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal-to-interannual forecasts and observational data. 

TABLE 2-1
Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

on climate and global change, and Section 106 of the act defines

requirements for scientific assessments.2To comply with the terms

of Section 106, CCSP will produce assessments that focus on a

variety of science and policy issues important for public discussion

and decisionmaking.The assessments will be composed of syntheses,

reports, and integrated analyses that CCSP will complete over the

next 4 years.The subjects to be addressed are listed in Table 2-1.

This approach takes account of the need for assessments on the full

range of issues spanning all CCSP objectives and will provide a

“snapshot” of knowledge of the environmental and socioeconomic

aspects of climate variability and change.The products will support

specific groups or decision contexts across the full range of issues

addressed by CCSP, and where appropriate, CCTP.

National policymaking focuses on many issues, but in this case

involves integrating information from forcings and climate response

to impacts and the costs and benefits of different response strategies.

Synthesis of scientific data and results with economic information,

demographic trends, technical specifications, etc., is essential for

producing useful information on responding to the challenges posed

by climate variability and change. How much information needs to

be integrated depends on the specific issue or question that is being

addressed and the type of decision that is being supported.

One highly important issue to be addressed at a national level is the

challenge of developing new technologies to reduce the projected

growth in greenhouse gas emissions.This requires integrating

information from the natural sciences, engineering, and the

economic and social sciences. CCSP will work closely with CCTP

in incorporating information on portfolios of different technologies

in evaluations of the implications of different response options

through “If..., then...” scenario analyses, integrated assessment, and

other approaches to comparative evaluation.This will facilitate

understanding needs for development of new technologies.

There are uncertainties associated with all of this information, so

when knowledge is integrated, information about the degree of

certainty/uncertainty associated with it must also be carried forward.

CCSP’s decision support activities will address this essential

requirement by communicating uncertainties in a manner appropriate

to the decision context. CCSP’s work program also includes

research to improve methods for taking account of uncertainty in

research and analysis, assessing the implications of uncertainty for

decisionmaking,and communicating uncertainty to different audiences.

The comprehensive structure of CCSP’s goals will help to ensure

that the program sponsors research and provides support for

decisionmaking on the full range of issues associated with variability

and change in climate and related systems.

28

Integration between and

among Agencies

Within CCSP, multiple agencies have responsibilities in a number of

the areas outlined above, so it is crucial that the agencies work

together to optimize results, minimize duplication, and capitalize on

their expertise, experience, and capabilities.The way in which this

will be done is outlined in detail in Chapter 16 for federal agencies,

while the relationship between U.S. and international activities is

discussed in Chapter 15.The details of the CCSP structure, including

the creation of interagency working groups, community-based science

steering groups, and management-level interactions within the

CCSP agencies and at higher levels are explained in Chapter 16.

In this section we note as examples some of the things that agencies

working together through CCSP will strive to do to assure the

necessary linkages between program elements:

• Make integrated use of infrastructure, especially for surfacebased networks, airborne campaigns, and ship-based expeditions,

to both reduce cost and maximize return by enhancing the

availability of integrated data sets

• Ensure common data formats and interoperable data systems so

that scientific, management, and policy-oriented data users can

integrate desired data sets with minimal difficulty

• Collaborate on calibration systems and relevant intercomparisons

to be sure that related observing capability can be consistently tied

to measurement activities and to recognized laboratory standards

• Integrate process-oriented, surface- and airborne-based studies

and network observations with calibration and validation activities

for satellite programs

• Develop integrated modeling frameworks that will enhance

opportunities for interchange of components and intercomparison

of model results (both with other models and with observations)

• Issue joint solicitations where the optimal way to engage the

research community in addressing issues of scientific importance.

CCSP will provide a variety of synthesis and assessment products

on an ongoing basis as discussed.These products will support both

policymaking and adaptive management.The overall approach to

decision support is described in Chapter 11 of this plan.This section

integrates the earlier discussion in this chapter and summarizes the

synthesis and assessment products that CCSP will generate.

The 1990 Global Change Research Act provides the overall framework

for the conduct and management of the interagency research program

Lead Authors

Richard H. Moss, CCSPO

Margarita Conkright Gregg, CCSPO

Jack Kaye, NASA

James R. Mahoney, DOC

CHAPTER 2 AUTHORS 2“On a periodic basis (not less frequently than every 4 years) the Council,

through the Committee, shall prepare and submit to the President and

the Congress an assessment which:

1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and

discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings

2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment,

agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources,

transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and

biological diversity

3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and

natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.”

Synthesis and Assessment Products
CHAPTER CONTENTS

Question 3.1:What are the climate-relevant

chemical, microphysical, and optical properties, and

spatial and temporal distributions, of human-caused

and naturally occurring aerosols? 

Question 3.2:What are the atmospheric sources

and sinks of the greenhouse gases other than CO2

and the implications for the Earth’s energy balance?

Question 3.3:What are the effects of regional

pollution on the global atmosphere and the effects of

global climate and chemical change on regional air

quality and atmospheric chemical inputs to

ecosystems?

Question 3.4:What are the characteristics of the

recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in response

to declining abundances of ozone-depleting gases and

increasing abundances of greenhouse gases?

Question 3.5:What are the couplings and feedback

mechanisms among climate change, air pollution, and ozone layer depletion, and their relationship

to the health of humans and ecosystems?

National and International Partnerships

CHAPTER

29

The composition of the atmosphere—its gases and

particles—plays a critical role in connecting human welfare

with global and regional changes because the atmosphere

links all of the principal components of the Earth system.

The atmosphere interacts with the oceans, land, terrestrial

and marine plants and animals, and the frozen regions (see

Figure 3-1). Because of these linkages, the atmosphere is a

conduit of change. Emissions from natural sources and

human activities enter the atmosphere at the surface and

are transported to other geographical locations and often

higher altitudes. Some emissions undergo chemical

transformation or removal while in the atmosphere or

interact with cloud formation and precipitation. Some

natural events and human activities that change atmospheric

composition also change the Earth’s radiative (energy)

balance. Subsequent responses to changes in atmospheric

composition by the stratospheric ozone layer, the climate

system, and regional chemical composition (air quality)

create multiple environmental effects that can influence

human health and natural systems.

Atmospheric composition changes are indicators of many potential

environmental issues. Observations of trends in atmospheric

composition are among the earliest harbingers of global changes.

For example, the decline of the concentrations of ozone-depleting

substances, such as the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), has been the

first measure of the effectiveness of international agreements to end

production and use of these compounds.

A principal feature of the atmosphere is that it acts as a long-term

“reservoir” for certain trace gases that can cause global changes.The

long removal times of some gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2,

>100 years) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs, >1,000 years), imply that

any associated global changes could persist over decades, centuries,

and millennia—affecting all countries and populations.

An effective program of scientific inquiry relating to changes in

atmospheric composition must include two major foci.The first is a

focus on Earth system interactions: How do changes in atmospheric

composition alter and respond to the energy balance of the climate

system? What are the interactions between the climate system and

Atmospheric Composition 3 
Chapter 3.Atmospheric Composition Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

stratospheric ozone? What are the effects of regional pollution on

the global atmosphere and the effects of global climate and chemical

change on regional air quality? The second is a focus on Earth system

and human system linkages: How is the composition of the global

atmosphere, as it relates to climate, ozone depletion, ultraviolet

radiation, and pollutant exposure, altered by human activities and

natural phenomena? How quantitative is the knowledge of the

major sources of emissions to the atmosphere? What are the

atmospheric composition changes that could affect human health

and natural ecosystems?

The overall research approach for understanding the role of atmospheric

composition is an integrated application of long-term systematic

observations, laboratory and field studies, and modeling, with periodic

assessments of understanding and significance to decisionmaking.

Most of the activities related to atmospheric composition research

are part of national and international partnerships, some of which are

noted at the end of this chapter. Such partnerships are necessitated

by the breadth and complexity of current issues and because the

atmosphere links all nations.The overall research approach is based

on the substantial body of knowledge and understanding available

from the work of many international scientists.The status of

understanding is reported as part of cooperative international

assessment activities (e.g., IPCC, 2001a,b,d;WMO,

1999,2003).

In looking ahead at what the specific policy-relevant information

needs associated with atmospheric composition will be, five broad

challenges are apparent, with goals and examples of key research

objectives outlined below.

30

Desert

dust

Agriculture

Biomass

burning

Cattle

Transportation

Transportation

Industry

Cities

Oceans

LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT OF AEROSOLS AND GASES

CHEMICAL

TRANSFORMATION

Aircraft emissions

(NOx, Black Carbon, Sulfate)

Natural and

anthropogenic emissions

from the Earth

(CH4, CO, CO2,

VOCs, Sulfate, Black

Carbon, Dust, N2O,

CFCs, NOx, O3)

O3 production O3 production

O3 destruction

STRATOSPHERE

TROPOSPHERE

Halocarbons

CFCs

FREE

TROPOSPHERE

BOUNDARY

LAYER

Water vapor

PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ - JULY 2003

Forests and other

Ecosystems

CHEMICAL

TRANSFORMATION

CHEMICAL

TRANSFORMATION

CHEMICAL

TRANSFORMATION

AND

Sulfur

emissions

from oceans

DEPOSITION

OF

POLLUTANTS

Evaporation

and Convection

Figure 3-1: Schematic of chemical and transport processes related to atmospheric composition. These processes link the atmosphere with other components

of the Earth system, including the oceans, land, and terrestrial and marine plants and animals.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 3.Atmospheric Composition

State of Knowledge

Research has demonstrated that atmospheric particles (aerosols) can

cause a net cooling or warming tendency within the climate system,

depending upon their physical and chemical characteristics. Sulfatebased aerosols, for example, tend to cool, whereas black carbon (soot)

tends to warm the system (see Figure 3-2). In addition to these

direct effects, aerosols can also have indirect effects on radiative

forcing (e.g., changes in cloud properties).When climate models

include the effects of sulfate aerosol, the simulation of global mean

surface temperatures is improved. One of the largest uncertainties

about the net impact of aerosols on climate is the diverse warming

and cooling influences of the very complex mixture of aerosol types

and their spatial distributions. Further, the poorly understood

impact of aerosols on the formation of both water droplets and ice

crystals in clouds also results in large uncertainties in the ability to

project climate changes (see Figure 3-2). More detail is needed

globally to describe the scattering and absorbing optical properties

of aerosols from regional sources and how these aerosols impact

other regions of the globe.

Illustrative Research Questions

The relationship of aerosols to climate change is complex because of

the diverse formation and transformation processes involving

aerosols (see Figure 3-3).This complexity underlies many of the

important research questions related to aerosols.

• What are the global sources (e.g., oceanic, land, atmospheric) of

particle emissions (e.g., black carbon/soot, dust, and organic

compounds), and their spatial and temporal variability?

• What are the regional and global sources of emissions of aerosol

precursor gases [e.g., sulfur dioxide (SO2), dimethyl sulfide

(CH3SCH3), ammonia (NH3), and volatile organic carbon

(VOC)]?

• What are the global distributions and optical characteristics of

the different aerosol components, and how do they directly and

31

Question 3.1:What are the climate-relevant

chemical, microphysical, and optical properties, and

spatial and temporal distributions, of human-caused

and naturally occurring aerosols? 

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Global Mean Radiative Forcing (Wm-2)

N2O

CO2

Greenhouse Gases

Stratospheric

Ozone

The height of a bar indicates a best estimate of the forcing, and the

accompanying vertical line a likely range of values. Where no bar is present

the vertical line only indicates the range in best estimates with no likelihood.

CH4

Cooling

Halocarbons

Tropospheric

Ozone

Sulfate

Organic

 Carbon

from

FossilFuel

Burning

Black

 Carbon

from

FossilFuel

Burning

Biomass

Burning

Mineral

Dust

Aerosol

Indirect

Effect

Contrails Cirrus

Aviation

Aerosols + Clouds

LEVEL OF SCIENTIFIC

UNDERSTANDING

Warming

Land Use

(albedo only)

Solar

Figure 3-2: Schematic comparing several factors that influence Earth’s climate on the basis of their contribution to radiative forcing between 1750 and 2000.

Two principal categories of radiative forcing factors are the greenhouse gases and the combination of aerosols and clouds. The rectangular bars represent a

best estimate of the contributions of these forcings, some of which yield warming and some cooling, while the vertical line about the rectangular bars indicates

the range of estimates. A vertical line without a rectangular bar denotes a forcing for which no best estimate can be given owing to large uncertainties.

Scientific understanding of aerosol effects is very low, as shown on the horizontal axis. Source: IPCC (2001d). For more information, see Annex C.
Chapter 3.Atmospheric Composition Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

indirectly (e.g., cloudiness changes) affect the radiative balance

of Earth’s atmosphere?

• What are the processes that control the spatial and temporal

distributions and variability of aerosols and that modify aerosol

physical, chemical and optical properties during transport (see

Figures 3-1 and 3-3), and how well do models simulate these

processes and resulting spatial distributions?

• What are the effects of changes in aerosol abundance and

composition on cloud formation and persistence, precipitation

amounts, and cloud radiative properties (see Chapter 5)?

• How do aerosols and aerosol precursors emitted by aviation

affect cloudiness in the upper troposphere?

• How do aerosols affect the chemical composition of the global

troposphere?

• What are the abundances and sources of aerosols that affect

human health and natural ecosystems (see Chapters 8 and 9)?

Research Needs

Significant research is required to complete our understanding of

aerosols and their role in climate change processes.The representation

of aerosol properties and their distribution in the atmosphere is

highly complex.The needs outlined below describe important

future steps to improve our understanding:

• Expand the use of space-based, airborne, and ground-based

instruments and laboratory studies to provide better data for

aerosols containing sulfate, black carbon/soot, dust, or organic

compounds in the following areas:

– Distributions (primarily from space-based instruments) of

aerosols and precursor gases over land and oceans and their

temporal variabilities

– The physical, chemical, and optical properties of anthropogenic

and natural aerosols

– The contributions of aerosols to Earth’s radiative balance.

• Enhance field and laboratory studies of the processes that

influence aerosol distributions and characteristics, including

those involved in indirect (e.g., cloud) effects.

• Improve comprehensive climate model simulations to estimate

aerosol-induced temperature changes and associated uncertainties,

and the direct and indirect effects of aerosols with an emphasis

on establishing bounds on the magnitude of the indirect effects.

• Intensify efforts to determine the composition of organic

aerosols and develop simpler instruments for the characterization

and measurement of carbon-containing aerosols.

• Establish realistic aerosol and precursor source-strength estimates

for specific aerosol compositions for the industrial era.

• Improve aerosol chemistry and transport models and carry out

simulations for aerosol source-strength scenarios.

• Make comprehensive comparisons of the geographic and height

dependence of simulated aerosol distributions and their radiative

characteristics with results from field and satellite data (e.g.,

with multi-wavelength polarimetric measurements), with an

emphasis on regions that can best test the reliability of current

model simulations (e.g., using the extensive North American

emissions database).

• Assess aerosol abundances and variability in the paleoaerosol

record (e.g., ice, bog, and lake core data).

32

Dry Deposition Wet Deposition

Activation

and

Scavenging

Activation and

Hydroscopic Growth

Evaporation

Coalescence

In-Cloud

Reactions

In-Cloud

Reactions

Emissions of Gaseous Precursors Emissions of Primary Particles

Heterogeneous Reactions

Homogeneous

Reactions

(OH, O3, NO3)

Nucleation Coagulation

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10

Particle Diameter

Gas Molecules Cloud Drops P ARTICLES

Condensation

Coagulation

Figure 3-3: Schematic of the processes that cause the formation and transformation of aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Aerosols may be emitted directly

into the atmosphere or be formed there from the emissions of gaseous precursors. Particles grow by condensation of gases and by coagulation with other

particles, and their number and composition can influence the formation and radiative characteristics of clouds. For more information, see Annex C.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 3.Atmospheric Composition

These research needs are strongly linked to those of the Climate

Variability and Change (Chapter 4),Water Cycle (Chapter 5),

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change (Chapter 6), and Carbon Cycle

(Chapter 7) elements.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs 

• Improved description of the global distributions of aerosols and

their properties [2-4 years].

• Empirically tested evaluation of the capabilities of current models

to link emissions to (i) global aerosol distributions and (ii) the

chemical and radiative properties (and their uncertainties) of

aerosols [2-4 years]. Specific products and payoffs include:

– Better estimates of the radiative forcing of climate change for

different aerosol types and the uncertainties associated with

those estimates. Aspects of these capabilities will be addressed

in collaboration with the Climate Variability and Change

research element (Chapter 4).These results will contribute

to the preparation of Climate Change Science Program

(CCSP) climate projections as decision support resources.

– Better defined potential options for changing radiative

forcing within a short time, in contrast to the longer

response times associated with CO2 and other greenhouse

gases.The relatively short atmospheric residence times of

aerosols form the basis of these options.

• An estimate of the indirect climate effects of aerosols (e.g., on

clouds) that is improved beyond the estimate in the last

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC,

2001a) [2-4 years].

• Characterization of the impact of human activities and natural

sources on global and regional aerosol distributions [beyond 4

years].

• Better understanding and description of the physical and chemical processes (and their uncertainties) that form, transform, and

remove aerosols during long-range atmospheric transport

[beyond 4 years].

State of Knowledge

The increasing concentrations of chemically active greenhouse gases,

such as methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (O3), nitrous oxide

(N2O), and halocarbons [e.g., CFCs, PFCs, hydrochlorofluorocarbons

(HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride

(SF6)], represent primary contributions to the radiative forcing of

the climate system (see Figure 3-2).

Anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are

addressed in Chapter 7.Water vapor,

considered the most dominant greenhouse

gas (albeit as a feedback), is discussed as

part of the hydrological cycle (see

Chapter 5).

The natural and anthropogenic emissions

sources leading to the observed growth

rates of CH4 (the second-most influential

anthropogenic greenhouse gas) and N2O

abundances are qualitatively understood

but poorly quantified (e.g., the amount

of CH4 emitted by rice agriculture).

Trends in tropospheric ozone (the thirdmost influential anthropogenic greenhouse

gas) are not well determined because

they are driven by a mix of natural and

anthropogenic emissions, including CH4

and regional pollutants such as the

reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx).The

atmospheric concentrations and sources

of the CFCs and HCFCs have been

well studied because of their role in

stratospheric ozone depletion. Some

important greenhouse gases are

removed from the troposphere and

stratosphere in reaction with the

hydroxyl radical (OH) (e.g., CH4, HFCs,

HCFCs) or by photolysis (e.g., N2O).

Reactions that remove a greenhouse gas

control its lifetime in the atmosphere

and, hence, its contribution to radiative

forcing of climate.

33

FY04 CCRI Priority - Aerosols

The Climate Change Research Initiative

(CCRI) will leverage existing U.S.

Global Change Research Program

(USGCRP) research to address major

gaps in understanding climate change.

Uncertainties related to the effects of

aerosols on climate are large, with both

warming and cooling effects possible

depending on the nature and distribution

of the aerosol.

The CCRI will advance the understanding

of the distribution of all major types of

aerosols and their variability through time,

the different contributions of aerosols

from human activities, and the processes

by which the different contributions are

linked to global distributions of aerosols.

The CCRI will support research to

improve understanding of the processes

by which trace gases and aerosols are

transformed and transported in the

atmosphere. Studies of how atmospheric

chemistry, composition, and climate are

linked will be emphasized, including

those processes that control the abundance

of constituents that affect the Earth’s

radiation budget, such as tropospheric

methane, ozone, and aerosols.

The global distributions of a limited

number of atmospheric parameters

(including climatically relevant

parameters such as ozone and aerosols)

and their variabilities will be obtained

from satellite observations over long

periods of time along with more

comprehensive suites of observations

over briefer time periods. Satellite data

recently obtained and to become

available for the first time for methane,

tropospheric ozone, and tropospheric

aerosols will be analyzed and interpreted

in the context of global models and

assimilation systems.

The studies will provide an observationaland model-based evaluation of the

radiative forcings associated with aerosol

direct and indirect effects.These forcing

results will contribute to the CCSP

climate projections for research and

assessment.

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

BOX 3-1 

Question 3.2:What are the atmospheric sources

and sinks of the greenhouse gases other than CO2

and the implications for the Earth’s energy balance?
Chapter 3.Atmospheric Composition Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Illustrative Research Questions

Driven by the need to have a better predictive understanding of the

relationship between the emission sources of these radiatively active

gases and their global distributions and radiative forcing, several

questions continue to face the research community. More quantitative

information is needed to help answer these questions, which

include:

• What is the inventory of anthropogenic (i.e., energy, industry,

agriculture, and waste) and natural (e.g., ecosystems) emissions

sources of CH4 and N2O on global and regional scales (see

Chapters 7, 8, and 9)?

• What are the causes and related uncertainties of the observed

large variations in the growth rates of CH4 and N2O abundances?

• What are the global anthropogenic and natural (both biogenic

and lightning-related) sources of reactive nitrogen oxides, which

are precursors of troposphere ozone?

• How can paleorecords of greenhouse gases and climate variability

be used to understand the potential for future climate change

(see Chapter 4)?

• What are the trends in mid-tropospheric ozone, particularly in

the Northern Hemisphere, and how well can the trends be

attributed to known chemical and transport processes?

• How is the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere changing (e.g.,

OH abundances) and how do these changes affect the radiative

forcing impact of greenhouse gas emissions?

• How do changes in the abundance of a principal greenhouse gas

(e.g., CH4) cause a feedback that alters its lifetime or that of

another greenhouse gas (see Chapter 7)?

• How do the increasing abundances of greenhouse gases influence

the distribution of atmospheric water vapor and its feedback in

the radiative balance of the climate system (see Chapter 5)?

Research Needs 

Field and laboratory studies, satellite observations, and diagnostic

transport/chemical modeling are needed to fully address these

questions. Examples of these activities are:

• Satellite, field, laboratory, and modeling studies to develop,

evaluate, and improve inventories of global emissions and the

potential for emission reductions for CH4, carbon monoxide

(CO), N2O, and NOx from anthropogenic and natural sources.

This need will be addressed in collaboration with the carbon

cycle research element (Chapter 7).

• Global monitoring sites to continue recording the growth rate of

CH4 and its variability.This need will be addressed in collaboration

with the Carbon Cycle research element (Chapter 7).

• Field and modeling studies to reduce the uncertainty in the airsea exchange rate of key gases (e.g., N2O, CH3SCH3, short-lived

halocarbons) over important regions of the world’s oceans.

• Satellite observations to provide estimates of global distributions

of tropospheric ozone and some of its precursors (e.g., NOx).

• Model studies to simulate past trends in tropospheric ozone to

improve the understanding of its contribution to radiative forcing

over the past ~50 years.

• Satellite and field studies to characterize how regional- and

continental-scale changes in ozone precursor emissions alter

global tropospheric ozone distributions, thereby providing tests

of and improvement in the representation of ozone-related

processes in models.

• Laboratory studies to expand the quantitative descriptions of

tropospheric chemical processes, thereby facilitating the continued

development of reliable climate models.

• Field and model studies to quantify how changes in NOx, CH4,

CO, water vapor, and ozone could alter the abundance of the

hydroxyl radical, which controls the lifetime of many principal

greenhouse gases.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Observationally assessed and improved uncertainty ranges of the

radiative forcing of the chemically active greenhouse gases [2-4

years]. Aspects of this product will be addressed in collaboration

with the Climate Variability and Change research element

(Chapter 4) and those specifically related to CH4 and CO2 with

the Carbon Cycle research element (Chapter 7).These

improved ranges will be used in formulating future scenarios of

radiative forcing, which will be part of CCSP climate projections.

As a result, there will be a broader suite of choices (i.e., in

addition to CO2) for decisionmakers to influence anthropogenic

radiative forcing, particularly in coming decades.

State of Knowledge

Emissions from rapidly industrializing regions of the world have the

potential to impact air quality and ecosystem health in regions far

from the sources. Paleochemical data from ice cores and snow

document past perturbations and demonstrate that even remote

areas, such as Greenland, are influenced by worldwide emissions.

The anthropogenic contribution to the nitrogen cycle from fossilfuel combustion and fertilizer production now rivals in magnitude

the natural input from nitrogen-fixing organisms and lightning.This

additional nitrogen input to the biosphere illustrates how human

activities could have important consequences for ecosystem structure

and function.The importance of the effect of regional pollution on

global tropospheric chemistry has been recognized for some time.

Now, the importance of understanding the reverse effect—that of

global-scale transport of pollutants or global change on regional air

quality—is increasing. A well-recognized example is the enhancement

of background global ozone concentrations by anthropogenic

emissions.

Illustrative Research Questions

This emerging picture is shaping several questions of importance to

society. Some examples of these are as follows:

• What are the impacts of climate change and long-range transport

of regional air pollution on water resources, human health, foodproducing areas, and ecosystems (see Chapters 6, 8, and 9)?

• How do El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related drought

and fires affect regional and global aerosol haze and air quality?

• How do interactions between the biogeochemical cycles of the

macronutrients (e.g., carbon and nitrogen) affect greenhouse gas

34

Question 3.3:What are the effects of regional

pollution on the global atmosphere and the effects of

global climate and chemical change on regional air

quality and atmospheric chemical inputs to ecosystems?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 3.Atmospheric Composition

abundances in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing of the

climate system (see Chapters 6 and 8)?

• How do regional changes in atmospheric composition due to

biomass burning affect the abundances of greenhouse gases and

global nutrient cycles (see Chapters 6 and 8)?

• How do the primary and secondary pollutants from the

world’s megacities and large-scale, non-urban emissions (e.g.,

agriculture, ecosystems, etc.) contribute to global atmospheric

composition? 

• What are, and what contribute to, North American “background”

levels of air quality—that is, what levels of pollution are beyond

national control?

• What controls the long-range transport, accumulation, and

eventual destruction of persistent organic pollutants or the

long-range transport, transformation, and deposition of

mercury?

Research Needs

These questions are being addressed by measurements of key

tropospheric constituents from satellites, airborne platforms, and

surface sites. Model analyses and simulations are used to provide a

regional and global context for the measurement data set and to

address future scenarios. Near-term goals include the

following:

• Quantify North American inflow and outflow of reactive and

long-lived gases and aerosols using observations with increasing

spatial and temporal resolution and project future changes.

• Understand the balance between long-range transport and

transformation of pollutants.

• Build and evaluate models that couple the biogeochemical cycles

of elements with specific emphasis on carbon and nitrogen

compounds.

• Continue baseline observations of atmospheric composition over

North America and globally.

• Carry out a detailed global survey of vertically resolved

distributions of tropospheric ozone and its key precursor

species.

• Carry out studies with atmospheric chemistry models coupled

to general circulation models to improve the understanding of

the feedbacks between regional air pollution and global climate

change.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• A simulation of the changes in the impacts of global tropospheric

ozone on radiative forcing over the past decade brought about

by clean air regulations [2-4 years]. Aspects of this product will

be addressed in collaboration with the Climate Variability and

Change research element (Chapter 4).

• Estimates of atmospheric composition and related processes to

be used in assessments of the vulnerability of ecosystems to

urban growth and long-range chemical transport [beyond 4

years]. Aspects of this product will be addressed in collaboration

with the Ecosystems research element (Chapter 8).

• An evaluation of how North American emissions contribute

to and influence global atmospheric composition [beyond

4 years].

• A 21st century chemical baseline for the Pacific region against

which future changes can be assessed [2-4 years].

State of Knowledge

The primary cause of stratospheric ozone depletion observed over

the last 2 decades is an increase in the concentrations of industrially

produced ozone-depleting chemicals (e.g., CFCs).The depletion has

been significant, ranging from a few percent per decade at mid-latitudes

to greater than 50 percent seasonal losses at high latitudes. Notable

is the annually recurring Antarctic ozone hole, as well as smaller,

but still significant, winter/spring ozone losses recently observed in

the Arctic. Reductions in atmospheric ozone levels lead to increased

exposure to ultraviolet radiation at the surface, which has harmful

consequences for plant and animal life, and human health. In response

to these findings, the nations of the world ratified the Montreal

Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer and agreed to phase

out the production of most ozone-depleting chemicals.

Ground-based and satellite measurements show that concentrations

of many of these compounds are now beginning to decrease in the

atmosphere (WMO, 1999,2003). As the atmospheric burden of

ozone-depleting chemicals falls in response to international efforts,

stratospheric ozone concentrations should begin to recover in coming

decades (see Figure 3-4). However, because of the ongoing changes

in atmospheric composition and climate parameters, which began

before the onset of stratospheric ozone depletion, the exact course and

timing of ozone recovery in the coming decades is not fully known.

Illustrative Research Questions

• How will changes in the atmospheric abundances of greenhouse

gases, such as CO2, N2O, and CH4, and the resulting changes in

the radiation and temperature balance (e.g., stratospheric cooling),

alter ozone-related processes in the stratosphere (see Chapter 7)?

• How will changes in physical climate parameters (e.g., stratospheric

winds and temperatures) affect the production and loss of

stratospheric ozone and how might these changes in ozone cause

a feedback that would alter climate parameters (see Chapter 4)?

• What are the ozone-depleting and radiative forcing properties of

the new chemicals chosen to be substitutes for the now-banned

ozone-depleting substances?

• How might climate change affect the abundances of very shortlived halocarbon gases of natural origin (e.g., from the oceans)

and their contribution to stratospheric ozone depletion?

Research Needs

Improving our understanding of the complex interaction between

the ozone layer and the climate system requires further investigations

of the processes that interconnect ozone, water vapor, reactive trace

constituents (notably chlorine and bromine compounds and reactive

nitrogen oxides), aerosols, and temperature. Research needs include

the following:

• Extend interagency and international satellite observations of

ozone trends, with an emphasis on detecting and attributing

ozone recovery.

35

Question 3.4:What are the characteristics of the

recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in response

to declining abundances of ozone-depleting gases and

increasing abundances of greenhouse gases?
Chapter 3.Atmospheric Composition Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• Continue global monitoring of the changes in the abundances of

ozone-depleting substances and their substitutes and assessing

compliance with the Montreal Protocol.

• Evaluate the impacts on stratospheric ozone and climate forcing

of proposed substitute gases with laboratory chemistry and

atmospheric models to provide early information to industry

prior to large investments in production.

• Maintain and expand measurements of the ozone vertical profile

throughout the troposphere and stratosphere in order to obtain

a more precise evaluation of the radiative forcing associated with

ozone and a more precise detection of stratospheric ozone

recovery.

• Use focused aircraft, balloon, and ground-based campaigns,

satellite data sets, and chemical transport modeling activities to

address:

– Cross-tropopause transport processes to better understand

the ozone-depleting role of the very short-lived (days to

months) halocarbon gases that have either been observed in

the atmosphere or are proposed for applications that may

lead to atmospheric release

– The response of polar stratospheric cloud formation and

ozone-loss chemistry to trends in water vapor and temperature

in the stratosphere

– Stratospheric transport processes to better understand ozone

layer responses to climate change.

• Continue monitoring the trends in ultraviolet radiation,

particularly in regions of high radiation exposure and high

biological sensitivity.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Updated trends in ozone and surface ultraviolet radiation, analysis

of compliance with the provisions of the Montreal Protocol, and

model forecasts of ozone recovery [2-4 years].

• Improved quantitative model evaluation of the sensitivity of the

ozone layer to changes in atmospheric transport and composition

related to climate change [2-4 years].

• Contribute new findings to the 2006 update of the international

scientific assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion [2-4 years].

– This sixth in the series of “operational” products of the ozone

science community is key to addressing accountability with

respect to ozone depletion—namely, is the outcome expected

from international actions being observed?

State of Knowledge

This question is intended to underscore the explicit need to better

understand the relationships that exist between research issues that

historically have been treated separately. Understanding the potential

consequences of changes in atmospheric composition cuts across a

range of important societal issues and scientific disciplines.

Atmospheric composition links climate change, air quality, and

ozone depletion with human and ecosystem health.The links involve

physical processes and feedback mechanisms—some of which are

newly recognized and most of which require further study.

Understanding these connections is important for understanding

climate change on regional and global scales. For example, research

has demonstrated that stratospheric ozone depletion not only causes

increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation at the surface, but also

exerts a cooling influence on the global climate. Conversely, climaterelated changes may cool the lower stratosphere and increase ozone

layer depletion in polar regions.Tropospheric ozone, of concern

primarily as a component of smog, is not only a local health risk,

but also exerts a warming influence on the global climate.

Emissions of SO2 from fossil-fuel combustion not only lead to the

formation of acid rain, but also contribute to sulfate-aerosol haze,

which exerts a cooling influence on the global climate system.

It is clear that these issues, which initially may have been treated

separately by scientists and policymakers, now require a more

integrated approach that addresses multiple sources, stresses, and

impacts (NASA, 2002).

36

Year

1980

-6

Ozone Change from 1980 (%)

2000 2020 2040

-4

-2

0

2

4

60°N - 60°S Total Ozone

Antarctic Total Ozone

200

100

0

Minimum Total Ozone (DU)

Observations:

Average and Range

Range of Atmospheric

Model Predictions

Satellite Observations

Figure 3-4: Schematic illustrating the estimated recovery of stratospheric

ozone in the coming decades. Observations show the decline of global

total ozone (top panel) and minimum values of total ozone over Antarctica

(lower panel) beginning in 1980. As the abundances of ozone-depleting

gases decline in the atmosphere, ozone values are expected to increase

and recover towards 1980 and earlier values. The estimated recovery of

ozone is shown based on predictions by several atmospheric models

which use different assumptions about the composition and meteorology of

the future stratosphere. The research needs as outlined in Section 3.4

address reducing the range of uncertainty in ozone recovery estimates.

Source: Adapted from WMO (2003). For more information, see Annex C.

Question 3.5:What are the couplings and feedback

mechanisms among climate change, air pollution,

and ozone layer depletion, and their relationship to

the health of humans and ecosystems?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 3.Atmospheric Composition

Illustrative Research Questions

• How do changes in the anthropogenic emissions of NOx, CO,

and VOCs affect the abundance of CH4 and ozone on regional

and global scales (see Chapters 7 and 9)?

• How is air quality affected by changes in climate and weather

patterns—for example, changes in ozone resulting from a

change in cloudiness, temperature, precipitation, etc. (see

Chapter 4)?

• How do the regional and global radiative forcings of aerosols

respond to changes in aerosol precursor gases (e.g., sulfur gases,

ammonia, and VOCs)?

• What are the common stresses that climate change, ozone layer

depletion, and regional air quality exert on humans and

ecosystems and do these stresses interact synergistically (see

Chapters 8 and 9)?

Research Needs

Research needs, in addition to those given in Sections 3.1 to 3.4,

linking atmospheric composition issues to the health of humans and

ecosystems are:

• Build and evaluate diagnostic/prognostic models of the coupled

climate, chemistry, transport, and ecological systems at the

local, regional, and global scales.This need will be addressed

in part by products of the Ecosystems research element

(Chapter 8).

• Identify and quantify how ecosystems are affected by human

activities that change the chemical composition of the

atmosphere.

• Build and evaluate models that efficiently represent the behavior

of biogeochemical systems and link these models with

decisionmaking frameworks.

• Carry out multiple-issue state-of-understanding scientific

assessments, in partnership with a spectrum of stakeholders and

with the aim of characterizing integrated “If..., then...”

options.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Strengthened processes within the national and international

scientific communities providing for integrated evaluations of

the impacts on human health and ecosystems caused by the

intercontinental transport of pollutants, the impact of air

pollutants on climate, and the impact of climate change on air

pollutants [2-4 years].The evaluations will be useful in

developing integrated control strategies to benefit both regional

air quality and global climate change, and the local attainment

of air quality standards [2-4 years]. Aspects of this product will

be addressed in collaboration with the Climate Variability and

Change (Chapter 4), Carbon Cycle (Chapter 7), and Human

Contributions and Responses (Chapter 9) research elements.

• In 2006, the U.S. atmospheric research community will produce

the first State of the Atmosphere report that describes and interprets

the status of the characteristics and trends associated with

atmospheric composition, ozone layer depletion, temperature,

rainfall, and ecosystem exposure (see Chapters 12 and 13)

[2-4 years].

• Diagnostic/prognostic models of the coupled climate, chemistry/

transport, and ecological systems [beyond 4 years].

The Atmospheric Composition research focus is linked via cooperation,

co-planning, and joint execution to several national and international

planning and coordinating activities. A few examples follow:

• Interagency Programs: Joint planning [e.g., with the

National Aerosol-Climate Interactions Program (NACIP)] is a

principal strategy for achieving CCSP objectives.

• Committee on Environment and Natural Resources -

Air Quality Research Subcommittee (AQRS): Joint

research is conducted on the global/continental scales within

the CCSP and on the regional/local scales within the AQRS

(e.g., global influences on the “natural background” of air

pollutants and linkages with the stakeholders via the AQRS).

• International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC):

IGAC, a core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere

Programme, coordinates several international projects focused

on the chemistry of the global troposphere and its impact on the

Earth’s radiative balance (e.g., the new Intercontinental

Transport and Chemical Transformation project, involving

Asian, North American, and European researchers).

• Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS):

SOLAS, a new core project of the International GeosphereBiosphere Programme, will coordinate several international

projects focused on the exchange of climate-relevant gases and

particles between the troposphere and oceans.

• World Climate Research Programme/Stratospheric

Processes and their Role in Climate (WCRP/SPARC):

SPARC coordinates international cooperation in research on

climate-related aspects of stratospheric science, including efforts

aimed at understanding long-term trends in the composition of

the stratosphere and upper troposphere.

• International Assessments: Atmospheric composition and its

role in the radiative forcing of climate and ozone depletion is a

key component of

international

assessments on

these topics—

performed under

the auspices of the

Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate

Change and the

United Nations

Environment

Programme/World

Meteorological

Organization,

respectively. Each

involves the

participation of a

large international

body of scientists

that represents

atmospheric

and cross-cutting

disciplines.

37

National and International Partnerships

Lead Authors

Daniel L. Albritton, NOAA

Philip L. DeCola, NASA

Donald E. Anderson, NASA

David W. Fahey, NOAA

James F. Gleason, NASA

Terry J. Keating, USEPA

Dina W. Kruger, USEPA

Michael J. Kurylo, NASA and NIST

Joel M. Levy, NOAA

Peter Lunn, DOE

Jarvis Moyers, NSF

Anne-Marie Schmoltner, NSF

Henry F.Tyrrell, USDA

Darrell A.Winner, USEPA

Contributors

Ronald J. Ferek, ONR

Mary Gant, HHS

CHAPTER 3 AUTHORS
38
CHAPTER CONTENTS

Question 4.1:To what extent can uncertainties in

model projections due to climate system feedbacks

be reduced?

Question 4.2: How can predictions of climate

variability and projections of climate change be

improved, and what are the limits of their

predictability?

Question 4.3:What is the likelihood of abrupt

changes in the climate system such as the collapse

of the ocean thermohaline circulation, inception of

a decades-long mega-drought, or rapid melting of

the major ice sheets?

Question 4.4: How are extreme events, such as

droughts, floods, wildfires, heat waves, and

hurricanes, related to climate variability and change?

Question 4.5: How can information on climate

variability and change be most efficiently developed,

integrated with non-climatic knowledge, and

communicated in order to best serve societal needs?

National and International Partnerships

CHAPTER

39

Climate variability and change profoundly influence social

and natural environments throughout the world, with

consequent impacts on natural resources and industry that

can be large and far-reaching. For example, seasonal-tointerannual climate fluctuations strongly affect the success

of agriculture, the abundance of water resources, and the

demand for energy, while long-term climate change may

alter agricultural productivity, land and marine ecosystems,

and the resources that these ecosystems supply. Recent

advances in climate science are beginning to provide

information for decisionmakers and resource managers to

better anticipate and plan for potential impacts of climate

variability and change. Further advances will serve the

nation by providing improved knowledge to enable more

scientifically informed decisions across a broad array of

climate-sensitive sectors.

Climate research has indicated that, globally, it is very likely

that the 1990s were the warmest decade in the instrumental

record, which extends back to the 1860s (see Figure 4-1);

large climate changes can occur within decades or less, yet

last for centuries or longer; and the increase in Northern Hemisphere

surface temperatures during the 20th century likely exceeds the

natural variability of the past 1,000 years (IPCC, 2001a,d). Placing

instrumental records in the context of longer term variability

through paleoclimate analyses has played a key role in these findings.

Moreover, observational evidence together with model simulations

incorporating a comprehensive suite of natural and anthropogenic

forcings indicate that “...the changes observed over the last several

decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule

out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of

natural variability” (see Figure 4-2) (NRC, 2001a). All climate models

used in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) assessment project that global mean temperatures will continue

to increase in the 21st century and will be accompanied by other

important environmental changes, such as sea-level rise, although

the magnitudes of the projected changes vary significantly depending

on the specific models and emissions scenarios (IPCC, 2001a,d).

Climate research has also significantly advanced our knowledge of

the temporal and spatial patterns of climate variability. Substantial

improvements in our ability to monitor the upper tropical Pacific

Climate Variability and Change 4
Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Ocean now provide the world with an “early warning” system that

shows the development and evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation

(ENSO) events as they occur.This improved observational system,

together with an increased understanding of the mechanisms that

produce ENSO, has led to useful climate forecasts at lead times of up

to several months.This developing capability has given the world an

unprecedented opportunity to prepare for and reduce vulnerabilities

to the impacts of ENSO, and thereby provided direct social and

economic benefits as returns on climate science investments.

Research supported by the U.S. Global Change Research Program

(USGCRP) has played a leading role in these scientific advances,

which have provided new climate information to help society better

anticipate and prepare for potential effects of climate variability

and change.While progress in this area has been impressive, there

still remain many unresolved questions about key aspects of the

climate system, including some that have enormous societal and

environmental implications. For example, we are just beginning to

understand how climate variability and change influence the local

and regional occurrence and severity of extreme events such as

hurricanes, floods, droughts, and wildfires. In many parts of the

world, including the United States, such events are tied to ENSO

variability, which has undergone significant changes in the past,

perhaps in response to relatively subtle changes in forcing. A better

40

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

0.0

0.4

Departures in Temperature in °C (from the 1961-1990 average)

0.8

-0.8

-0.4

1860 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1880

Direct Temperatures

Direct Temperatures

Proxy Data

a)

b)

Year

Figure 4-1: Top Panel: Changes in the Earth’s surface temperature over the period of direct temperature measurements (1860–2000). The departures from

global mean surface temperature are shown each year by the red bars (with very likely ranges as thin black lines) and approximately decade-by-decade by

the continuous red line. Bottom Panel: Proxy data (year-by-year blue line with very likely ranges as gray band, 50-year-average purple line) merged with the

direct temperature measurements (red line) for the Northern Hemisphere. The proxy data consist of tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records that

have been calibrated against thermometer data. Source: IPCC (2001d). For more information, see Annex C.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change

understanding of ENSO behavior under different climate states is

therefore needed.

We have also identified several major recurrent natural patterns of

climate variability other than ENSO, but do not yet know to what

extent they are predictable. Our predictive capabilities at local and

regional scales show promise in some regions and for some

phenomena, but in many instances are still quite poor.We have yet

to obtain confident estimates of the likelihood of abrupt climate

transitions, although such events have occurred in the past (NRC,

2002). Perhaps most fundamentally, we do not yet have a clear

understanding of how these natural climate variations may be

modified in the future by human-induced changes in the climate,

particularly at regional and local scales, and how emerging

information about such changes can be used most effectively to

evaluate the vulnerability and sustainability of human and natural

systems (see, e.g., Figure 4-3).

The transformation of knowledge gained from climate research into

information that is useful for societal decisions presents many

challenges, as well as significant new opportunities.The process of

understanding climate impacts and using climate information

requires a detailed understanding of the interactions of climate,

natural systems, and human institutions.Thus, to obtain maximum

benefits from advances in knowledge of climate variability and

change, it will be essential to forge new relationships between the

climate research community, social scientists, and the rapidly

expanding base of public and private sector users of climate

information. For continued progress over the next decade, research

on climate variability and change will focus on answering two

overarching questions:

• How are climate variables that are important to human and

natural systems affected by changes in the Earth system resulting

from natural processes and human activities?

• How can emerging scientific findings on climate variability and

change be further developed and communicated in order to

better serve societal needs?

Providing decision-relevant answers to these questions will require

a research infrastructure that includes: a sustained, long-term

observing system of a quality necessary for climate research and

assessments (Chapter 12); a highly focused and adequately funded

modeling activity to analyze and integrate climate observations and

support climate predictions and projections (Chapter 10); and a

research-based infrastructure to develop partnerships among climate

scientists, other natural scientists (e.g., biologists), social scientists,

and public/private-sector decisionmakers to accelerate the production

and applications of climate knowledge (Chapter 11). In addition,

41

Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Year

a) Natural Forcing Only

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-1.0

b) Anthropogenic Forcing Only

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

c) Natural + Anthropogenic Forcing

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Model Results

Observations

1850 1900 1950 2000

Figure 4-2: Climate model simulations of the Earth’s temperature variations

compared with observed changes for (a) natural forcing due to solar

variations and volcanic activity; (b) anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse

gases and an estimate of sulfate aerosols; and (c) both natural and

anthropogenic forcing included. The model results show that the forcings

included are sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do not exclude

the possibility that other forcings may also have contributed. Source: IPCC

(2001d). For more information, see Annex C.

Figure 4-3: Wind-blown dust buried farms and equipment, killed livestock,

and caused human death and misery during the Dust Bowl drought of the

1930s. Source: Monthly Weather Review, June 1936 (courtesy NOAA).
Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

coordinated research management will be required to ensure a

broad-based and collaborative research program spanning academic

institutions, government and private laboratories, and public and

private sector expertise, to sustain research into climate variability

and change and to provide advanced graduate and post-doctoral

training for the next generation of scientists (Chapter 16).

In developing a research strategy, it is vital to recognize that the

problems of climate variability and change are intrinsically connected:

for example, regional impacts of climate change will depend

directly on the variability of the global climate system. Moreover,

future climate variability (e.g., frequency of ENSO events) will

depend in part on changes in the mean climate.Therefore, problems

of climate variability and change cannot be cleanly separated, and

the success of understanding each will require improved

understanding of both.The overall scientific strategy described in

this chapter includes:

• Carefully designed, implemented, and managed observing

system elements that will directly improve our knowledge of

the climate system and will drive improvements in climate

models

• Systematic, ongoing programs of climate data collection,

integration, and analysis

• Process studies to elucidate critical processes that govern the

climate system, but which in many cases are poorly understood

and modeled

• Building a research infrastructure, such as the Earth System

Modeling Framework, that supports collaborations among climate

scientists and climate modeling centers

• Improving capabilities to assess climate information needs and to

provide needed information to decisionmakers at local, regional,

and national levels.

Advances will require improvements in paleoclimatic data as well as

modern observational data systems, because in general the latter

have been present for too short a time to extract robust features of

climate variability on decadal or longer time scales. For example, in

the Arctic, few climate stations have records extending back beyond

50 years, but paleoenvironmental analyses indicate that both the

magnitude and spatial extent of 20th century Arctic warming may

be unprecedented over the past 400 years. Paleoclimatic analyses

also reveal the occurrence of decades-long mega-droughts at lower

latitudes, including large portions of the United States (NRC,

2002).

The Climate Variability and Change research element will play a

central integrating role in the Climate Change Science Program

(CCSP). As indicated by the numerous linkages, the Climate

Variability and Change research element will provide the array of

advanced climate prediction and projection products that the other

CCSP elements will utilize.This can be achieved only through the

continued development of core climate system models that integrate

the observational, analytical, and specialized modeling capabilities

planned within the other CCSP elements, in order to provide

improved information necessary to respond to the scientific and

decisionmaking needs of the overall program.The overarching

questions in the areas of climate variability and change can be

addressed most effectively by focusing attention on five key science

questions and their associated research objectives, as described below.

State of Knowledge

Climate system feedbacks, such as from clouds, water vapor,

atmospheric convection, ocean circulation, ice albedo, and vegetation,

produce large uncertainties in climate change projections by

modulating the direct response to radiative perturbations that result

from changing greenhouse gas concentrations, solar variability, or

land-cover changes. State-of-the-art climate models exhibit a large

range in the cumulative strengths of these feedbacks, with major

U.S. models used in recent IPCC assessments lying at nearly the

opposite ends of this range (IPCC, 2001a). A key issue for climate

science is the extent to which the range in model projections resulting

from the differences in climate system feedbacks can be quantified

and reduced. Important feedbacks include relatively fast processes

on time scales of minutes to months (e.g., clouds and turbulent

ocean mixing). Such rapid processes also affect models used for

seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions, which can be used as

effective test beds for research in this area.

All major U.S. climate models fail to accurately simulate certain

climate system processes and their associated feedbacks in response

to natural or anthropogenic perturbations.The oceans store and

transport energy, carbon, nutrients, salt, and freshwater on multiple

time scales and help to regulate and determine climate changes on a

continuum of time scales.Yet some critical ocean phenomena,

including ocean mixing and large-scale circulation features that

determine the rate of storage and transport, remain as key challenges

to understand, assess, and model. Other critical processes that are

inadequately represented in climate models include atmospheric

convection, the hydrological cycle, and cloud radiative forcing

processses. Although observed changes in incoming solar radiation, a

natural climate forcing, are small relative to changes in net radiative

forcing by greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001a,b), there is some evidence

that feedbacks within the climate system may magnify otherwise

weak solar variability. In spite of many research efforts over the past

several decades and longer, the physical processes responsible for

such feedbacks remain uncertain.

The cumulative effect of these processes influences the magnitude,

rate, and spatial distributions of the climate response to natural or

anthropogenic forcing. Modeling deficiencies are related both to

limits in understanding the physics of the climate system and

insufficient fine-scale treatment of the key processes.They contribute

to uncertainties in projections of climate change, and thereby hinder

the development of adequate response strategies and formulation of

environmental and energy policies. High-priority research will

focus on several sub-questions:

• 4.1.1—What are the key climate system feedbacks that determine

the transient and equilibrium responses for a specified radiative

forcing?

• 4.1.2—How and to what extent can uncertainties in these

feedbacks be quantified?

• 4.1.3—How sensitive are climate change projections to various

42

Question 4.1:To what extent can uncertainties in

model projections due to climate system feedbacks

be reduced?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change

strategies for limiting changes in anthropogenic forcing, such as

by enhancing biogeochemical sequestration or changing land use

and cover?

• 4.1.4—How can satellite, instrumental, and paleoclimatic

observations of the Earth’s past variations in climate be used to

quantify and reduce uncertainties in feedbacks and provide

bounds for the major elements of climate change projections for

the next century?

• 4.1.5—To what extent are climate changes as observed in

instrumental and paleoclimate records related to volcanic and

solar variability, and what mechanisms are involved in producing

climate responses to these natural forcings?

• 4.1.6—How may information about climate sensitivity and

feedbacks be used to develop effective strategies for the design

and deployment of observational systems?

Research Needs 

U.S. research into climate forcing, feedbacks, and sensitivity is

conducted at a few major modeling centers, federal and private

laboratories, and universities.The intellectual quality of the research

is outstanding, with many new and innovative ideas for model

development and applications. However, the infrastructure and the

observational data are currently inadequate to implement and

evaluate these ideas cooperatively among the various modeling

groups. Steps are being taken to address these deficiencies, but

more must be done.

In order to optimize modeling resources and enable meaningful

collaborations among modelers, it is necessary to develop and

maintain a common and flexible infrastructure at the major modeling

centers. By adopting common coding standards and system software,

researchers will be able to test ideas at any of the major modeling

centers, and the centers themselves will be able to easily exchange

parameterizations as well as entire modules so that all groups benefit.

The CCSP-supported Earth System Modeling Framework is an

important start in this direction.

Additional infrastructure needs include: continuing enhancements

of computational resources to keep pace with increasing model

complexity (e.g., chemistry, biology); higher resolution, multi-century

climate model simulations run from many different initial states

(i.e., as ensembles) to help understand climate variability and change

of the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries and quantify probabilities of

future climate events; additional software engineers for developing

and managing model codes and building common and flexible

infrastructure; and modeling center outreach scientists to aid and

enable collaborations with external researchers. Benefits will

include more efficient and rapid transfer of research results into

applications, thereby achieving savings in human resource and dollar

costs (Chapter 10).

Climate research also requires sustained, high-quality environmental

observations. Long-term climate observing systems (e.g., ARGO

floats and ocean profilers, aerosol-radiation-cloud observatories),

satellite data, retrospective data (instrumental and paleoclimatic),

field observations, and increased fidelity of current operational data

streams and improved reanalyses of historical data will all be needed

to produce data sets designed for climate change detection studies,

trend analyses, process research, and model development and testing

(see also Question 4.2 and Chapter 12). Moreover, incorporation of

observational data into modeling through improved data assimilation

methods and more advanced models will address the reliability and

uncertainties of these frameworks as well as facilitate the design of

observing networks.

Further modeling research is required to improve simulations of

seasonal-to-interannual variability in global models used for climate

projections and to apply these models to improve seasonal-tointerannual climate predictions. Because many of the most important

effects of global change will be felt at regional to local scales,

improved capabilities of the global models to simulate and predict

seasonal-to-interannual variability at these scales will be important

both for validating the credibility of the models and building

confidence among decisionmakers regarding the use of these models

in global change projections.

A new research mode for accelerating improvements in climate

models will be tested and evaluated with Climate Process and

Modeling Teams (CPTs, see Box 4-1). CPTs are intended to

complement rather than replace single investigators or other

collaborative research on climate sensitivity and feedbacks. Pilot

CPTs will begin in FY2003-2004.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

Products

• Refined estimates of the role of climate feedback processes in

affecting climate sensitivity and improvements in their

representation in climate models, leading to a narrowing of the

range of climate model projections (Questions 4.1.1 and 4.1.2)

[2-4 years and beyond].

– For cloud and water vapor feedbacks, the Water Cycle

research element will provide theoretically based cloudresolving models, mesoscale models of cloud processes,

cloud/precipitation process research, cloud energy budgets,

and satellite data sets (e.g., CloudSat).The Climate

Variability and Change research element will be responsible

for cloud/water vapor feedback processes in the context of

the coupled climate system models (e.g., the use of cloudresolving models to test cloud parameterizations in climate

models).

• Improved estimates of the climate response to different emissions

[e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2), aerosols, black soot] and land-use

scenarios (Question 4.1.3) [2-4 years and beyond].

– The capabilities of current climate models to link emissions

to global atmospheric distributions of concentrations of

pollution, including the chemical and heating and cooling

properties of embedded atmospheric aerosols, will be

addressed in cooperation with the Atmospheric Composition

research element, as will assessments of the ability of the

models to simulate observed radiative forcing of chemically

active greenhouse gases, including improved uncertainty

ranges. Aspects of this research will also be conducted

cooperatively with the Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

research element.

• New and improved climate data products, including: assimilated

data from satellite retrievals and other remotely sensed and in

43
Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

situ data for model development and testing; consistent and

regularly updated reanalysis data sets suitable for climate studies;

centuries-long retrospective and projected climate system

model data sets; high-resolution data sets for regional studies

[e.g., Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site data to

initialize and evaluate cloud-resolving models]; and assimilated

aerosol, radiation, and cloud microphysical data for areas with

high air pollution, such as urban centers throughout the world

(Question 4.1.4) [2-4 years and beyond].

– Some of these data will be collected, quality-controlled, and

integrated in cooperation with the Atmospheric Composition

and Water Cycle research elements, and will support these

and the Carbon Cycle research element.

• Increased understanding and confidence in attribution of the

causes of recent and historical changes in the climate (Questions

4.1.4 and 4.1.5) [2-4 years and beyond].

– The Atmospheric Composition research element will provide

emission and atmospheric concentration data and the LandUse/Land-Cover Change research element will provide

historical land-use change time series and land-use scenarios.

Selected Climate Variability and Change data and analyses

will be provided for the Atmospheric Composition research

element’s assessment of the impacts of tropospheric ozone

on radiative forcing brought about by clean air regulations

enacted during the last decade.

• Targeted paleoclimatic time series as needed, for example, to

establish key time series of observations and natural forcing

mechanisms as benchmarks of climate variability and change

(Question 4.1.5) [2-4 years and beyond].

• Improved effectiveness of global and regional observing systems,

including deployment of new systems and re-deployment of

existing systems, based on guidance provided by modeled climate

sensitivities and feedbacks (Question 4.1.6) [2-4 years and beyond].

• Policy-relevant information on climate sensitivities and the

uncertainties in climate model projections due to climate

system feedbacks, in support of the IPCC and other national and

international assessments (all 4.1 questions) [2-4 years and beyond].

Payoffs

• More efficient and rapid transfer of research results into

applications [2-4 years and beyond].

• Increased confidence in estimates of the global and regional

manifestations of future changes in climate [beyond 4 years].

State of Knowledge

One of the major advances in climate science over the past decade

has been the recognition that much of climate variability is associated

with a relatively small number of recurrent spatial patterns, or

climate modes.These include, in addition to ENSO, the North

Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the northern and southern hemisphere

annular modes (NAM, SAM), Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV),

44

FY04 CCRI Priority - Cloud and

Water Vapor Feedbacks and Ocean

Circulation and Mixing Processes

The Climate Change Science Program

will address targeted climate processes

known to be responsible for large

uncertainties in climate predictions and

projections. A new paradigm for

conducting the research—Climate

Process and Modeling Teams—will be

used and evaluated.

Important processes that are inadequately

represented in climate models include

atmospheric convection, the hydrological

cycle, and clouds and their net radiative

forcing.Water vapor is the most important

of the greenhouse gases, and clouds

affect both vertical heating profiles and

geographic heating patterns. Results

from climate models suggest that there

will be an overall increase in water vapor

as the climate warms. However, scientists

know neither how the amounts and

distributions of water vapor and clouds

will change as the total water vapor in

the atmosphere changes, nor how the

associated changes in radiative forcing

and precipitation will affect climate.

Improved representation of the distribution

of and processes involving water vapor

in climate models is therefore critical to

improving climate change projections.

Ocean mixing plays a pivotal role in

climate variability and change, and is a

primary source of uncertainty in ocean

climate models.The highly energetic

eddies of the ocean circulation are not

well resolved and cannot be sustained

for the multiple thousands of years of

simulations required to assess coupled

climate sensitivity.This leaves the problem

of parameterization of eddy fluxes as a

key issue for improving coupled model

simulations.

Accelerating improvements in climate

models requires coordinated observational,

process, and modeling programs by

teams of scientists—that is, CPTs, an

approach first proposed by U.S. CLIVAR

(a complete description of CPTs can be

found on its website,

<http://www.usclivar.org>). CPTs

will rapidly identify, characterize, and

ultimately reduce uncertainties in climate

model projections as well as determine

observational requirements for critical

processes. For problems that are generic

to all climate models (e.g., cloud

processes and ocean mixing), the CPTs

will consist of teams of climate process

researchers, observing system specialists,

and modelers working in partnership

with designated modeling centers.

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

BOX 4-1 

Question 4.2: How can predictions of climate

variability and projections of climate change be

improved, and what are the limits of their

predictability?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change

Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV), the Tropical Intra-Seasonal

Oscillation (TISO), and monsoon systems. At present, there is

limited understanding of the physical mechanisms that produce and

maintain natural climate modes, the extent to which these modes

interact, and how they may be modified in the future by humaninduced climate changes.These limitations in knowledge introduce

major uncertainties in climate predictions, climate change projections,

and estimates of the limits of climate predictability, especially for

regional climate (see also Question 4.1).They directly hinder our

capabilities to address many of the “If..., then...” questions posed

by decisionmakers.

Simulations of past climate conditions for which forcing estimates

have been obtained provide an effective and practical means for

assessing the scientific credibility of climate models.They enable

detailed investigations of whether climate models realistically

reproduce past climate states and responses in key environmental

variables, such as sea level.They may also be used to evaluate how

well the models simulate the various naturally recurring modes of

climate variability. Process research that includes enhanced and

extended observations—such as over the Pacific, Atlantic, and

Indian Oceans basins and adjacent land and ice regions—provides a

critical means for evaluating physical mechanisms and feedbacks,

validating models, and assessing the corresponding effects on

regional climate.

The extent to which skillful regionally specific climate predictions

and climate change projections can be provided is an issue of

fundamental practical importance.Various approaches have been

proposed, including high-resolution global models, nested globalregional models, probabilistic information derived from ensembles

with either individual or multiple climate models, and statistical

downscaling. Much additional work is required to determine optimal

methods and the feasibility of downscaling climate information to

regional-to-local levels. Here, research on short-term climate

variability (e.g., due to ENSO) can provide valuable insights.

Developing capabilities to reproduce regional manifestations of

interannual climate variability in climate models will also be crucial

for establishing credibility with scientists and decisionmakers

regarding longer term climate change scenarios (see, e.g., Figure 4-4).

High priority research will seek to answer the following questions:

• 4.2.1—How can advances in observations, understanding, and

modeling of ocean-atmosphere-land interactions be used to further

improve climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales?

• 4.2.2—What are the time scales for changes in climate variability

following major changes in the land surface, oceans, or sea ice,

and how does this “memory” contribute to climate predictability

on multi-year to decadal time scales?

• 4.2.3—What are the projected contributions from different

components of the climate system to future sea-level changes,

45

80N

60N

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E

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60S

80N

60N

40N

20N

E

20S

40S

60S

180 140W 100W 60W 20W 20E 60E 100E 140E 180

180 140W 100W 60W 20W 20E 60E 100E 140E 180

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1 April Starts

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

NNO3 SST Anomaly (¡C)

-2

0

2

4

1 September Starts

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

NNO3 SST Anomaly (¡C)

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0

2

4

Observations

Ensemble Member

Ensemble Mean

a)

c)

d)

b)

-70 -60 -50 -45 -40 Nor Clim 40 45 50 60 70

% Changes

Figure 4-4: Left Panel: Multi-model derived probability forecasts of the most likely category for (a) precipitation and (b) temperature for January-March 2003

(models run December 2002). Positive values indicate forecast probabilities in the above normal category (upper one-third of climatological temperature or

precipitation distributions, respectively) while negative values indicate probabilities in the below normal category (lower one-third of the distributions).

Right Panel: Ensemble predictions with a coupled model system of eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies 9 months in advance, with

predictions starting in April (top) and September (bottom) of each year. The spread of the six-member ensembles, which is particularly evident in the 1 April

starts, indicates the relatively large uncertainties in predicting SST anomalies so far in advance. Sources: (a) International Research Institute for Climate

Prediction, and (b) NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project.
Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

what are the uncertainties in the projections, and how can they

be reduced?

• 4.2.4—What is the potential for improved representation of

natural modes of climate variability, such as ENSO, PDV, NAO,

TAV,TISO, monsoons, and the annular modes, and how might

this knowledge be used to extend and improve climate predictions? 

• 4.2.5—How might human-induced changes that affect the climate

system, such as changes in atmospheric composition, aerosols,

ground cover and land use, and natural forcing from solar

variability and volcanic activity, alter climate forcing and hence

climate variability and predictability on global and regional

scales? 

• 4.2.6—How do current and projected climate changes compare

with past changes and variations in climate in terms of patterns,

magnitudes, and regional manifestations? For example, is the

magnitude and time scale of the observed 20th century warming

of the Arctic unprecedented in the last 1,000 to 10,000 years?

Research Needs

Essential research needs include the development and support for

long-term, sustained climate modeling and observing capabilities (see

also Question 4.1 and Chapters 10 and 12).These include remotesensing data sets, global and regional reanalyses, and retrospective

data including new high-resolution paleoclimate data sets. Field

observations and process studies are necessary for improving

understanding and modeling of the physical mechanisms responsible

for climate feedbacks, evaluating the extent to which climate

models successfully replicate these mechanisms, and determining

observational requirements for critical processes. Additional research

is required to develop improved methodologies to determine from

global model projections changes in regional climate and seasonalto-interannual variability.Vital constraints that must be considered

include the water cycle (Chapter 5) and global energy balance.

Focused research efforts, such as the CPTs described earlier in this

chapter, can play an important role in accelerating improvements in

global climate models. Sea-level observations, geodetic reference

frame measurements, ice sheet and glacier volume estimates, as

well as advances in modeling are required to further refine sea-level

change projections. Other research needs include producing data

sets from ensembles of extended model simulations, and an updated,

consistent reanalysis suitable for climate diagnostic analysis, attribution,

and detection, including, if feasible, all of the 20th century. Moreover,

access to model products, predictions, and tailored value-added

products/information must be provided to the decisionmaking

community to foster progress in utilizing prediction capabilities (see

Question 4.5 and Chapter 11).

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

Products

• Dynamically consistent global time series of observations (e.g.,

regularly updated and extended global climate reanalyses; 50-

year long, 1° ocean data assimilation products) (Question

4.2.1.) [2-4 years].

– Some aspects of this work will be conducted in collaboration

with the Water Cycle research element. Selected data products

will provide the Carbon Cycle research element information

required for carbon cycle model development. Climate

model simulations of the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries, and

projections for the next couple of centuries that contain

gridded values of all climate (ocean, atmosphere, sea ice,

etc.) variables, also will be available for use by several other

science elements.

• Extended model-based data sets to assess predictability and

develop new approaches to improving seasonal-to-interannual

climate predictions (Question 4.2.1) [2-4 years and beyond].

• Improved predictions of El Niño-La Niña, particularly the onset

and decay phases (Question 4.2.1) [2-4 years and beyond].

• Improved probability forecasts of regional manifestations of

seasonal climate anomalies resulting from ENSO (Questions

4.2.1 and 4.2.4) [less than 2 years and beyond].

• A paleoclimatic database designed to evaluate the ability of stateof-the-art climate models to simulate observed decadal- to

century-scale climate change, responses to large changes in climate

forcing, and abrupt climate change (Questions 4.2.2, 4.2.5, and

4.2.6) [2-4 years].

– The Carbon Cycle research element will provide information

on feedbacks to the climate from large changes in carbon

storage and fluxes.

• Development and extension of critical data sets to improve

analyses of climate variability and attribution of causes of climate

change (Questions 4.2.2 and 4.2.6) [2-4 years and beyond].

• Improved high-resolution, three-dimensional ocean circulation

models (Questions 4.2.1–4.2.4) [2-4 years and beyond].

– The Climate Variability and Change research element will

lead in development of suitable ocean models for climate

purposes, but will rely on other elements for model

subcomponents (e.g., Carbon Cycle for biogeochemistry,

Ecosystems for biological,Water Cycle for important forcings

such as continental freshwater runoff).

• Improved estimates of global air-sea-land fluxes of heat, moisture,

and momentum needed to discern characteristics of oceanatmosphere-land coupling and to assess the global energy balance

(Questions 4.2.1–4.2.4) [2-4 years].

– The Water Cycle research element (providing precipitation

products and land-surface fluxes) will work jointly with

Climate Variability and Change on this product. Climate

Variability and Change, working with the Water Cycle

research element, will coordinate selected field measurements

with those of the Carbon Cycle research element to derive

more complete three-dimensional time series for flux and

transport studies of carbon and ocean nutrients.

• Improved representation of processes (e.g., thermal expansion,

ice sheets, water storage, coastal subsidence) in climate models

that are required for simulating and projecting sea-level changes

(Question 4.2.3) [2-4 years and beyond].

– In addition to the above factors, local to regional changes in

sea level will be affected by movements in land due to natural

processes or human influences (e.g., the removal of

groundwater), which will require Climate Variability and

Change to coordinate in this area with the Water Cycle and

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research elements.

• Improved understanding and parameterizations of key mechanisms

for seasonal-to-decadal variability, based on process studies

together with modeling research and analyses (Question 4.2.4)

[2-4 years and beyond].

• Improvements in the representation of major modes of climate

46
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change

variability in climate change projection models and predictions

of regional patterns of different modes of climate variability

(Question 4.2.4) [beyond 4 years].

• An assessment of potential predictability beyond ENSO (e.g.,

associated with PDV, NAO, annular modes, tropical Atlantic and

Indian Ocean variability and trends, and the monsoons)

(Question 4.2.4) [beyond 4 years].

• Estimates of the spatial and temporal limits of predictability of

climate variability and change forced by human activities

(Question 4.2.5) [beyond 4 years].

• Policy-relevant information on natural climate variability and

the potential predictability of climate variability and change in

support of national and international science assessments [2-4

years and beyond].

Payoffs

• An improved ability to separate the contributions of natural

versus human-induced climate forcing to climate variations and

change, resulting in more credible answers to “If..., then...”

policy-related questions [beyond 4 years].

• Increased understanding of changes in natural variability and

potential impacts on predictability that may result from

anthropogenic forcing [beyond 4 years].

• Research to address Questions 4.1 and 4.2 will provide more

reliable and useful climate prediction products and other essential

support to U.S. and international decisionmakers and resource

managers, and will assist climate assessment efforts by increasing

understanding of critical processes required to evaluate and

improve major climate models (see Chapter 10) [2-4 years and

beyond].

State of Knowledge

Analyses of the paleoclimate record—the record of the Earth’s

environmental history derived from sources such as ice cores, tree

rings, and lake and ocean sediments—provide compelling evidence

for past abrupt climate changes. In some locations, changes of up to

16°C in temperature and a factor of two in precipitation have

occurred within decades to years, yet lasted for centuries and

longer (NRC, 2002). Paleoclimate data indicate that these changes

have been manifested by significant shifts in the baseline climate and

in the character and patterns of variations about average conditions.

The rapidity of such changes poses major challenges to the

vulnerability and adaptability of societies and ecosystems.

Previous paleoclimate research has provided significant advances in

our understanding of the general structure and geographic extent of

past abrupt climate changes. Much past research has focused on

colder climate conditions, and a challenge for the future will be to

understand the potential for abrupt change in the context of an

overall warming climate. Abrupt climate changes may be associated

with the crossing of a climatic threshold, the onset of nonlinear

responses, or feedbacks in the climate system.To date, however, the

causes of past abrupt changes are not fully explained or understood.

In addition, present climate models fail to adequately capture the

magnitude, rapidity, and geographical extent of past abrupt changes.

Consequently, at this time climate models cannot be used with

confidence to estimate the potential for future abrupt changes

(NRC, 2002). Improved knowledge of the causes for abrupt

changes, and the ability to project their future probabilities, will

provide policymakers with an improved scientific basis to evaluate

risks of future abrupt changes and, as needed, to develop strategies

to reduce vulnerabilities. Major questions include:

• 4.3.1—How common are abrupt changes, based on paleoclimate

records?

• 4.3.2—What are the observational requirements needed to

resolve the spatial and temporal patterns of past abrupt changes,

and to answer questions about differences in timing of the

changes in different parts of the globe?

• 4.3.3—What are the primary natural mechanisms for producing

abrupt climate changes?

• 4.3.4—When might future abrupt changes be expected to

occur, and what would be the expected global and regional

manifestations of such changes?

47

Question 4.3:What is the likelihood of abrupt

changes in the climate system such as the collapse of

the ocean thermohaline circulation, inception of a

decades-long mega-drought, or rapid melting of the

major ice sheets? 

a)

b)

Figure 4-5: The retreat of the South Cascade Glacier in Washington’s

Cascade Mountains shown in photographs from (a) 1928 and (b) 2000.

Since 1957, the glacier has retreated about 700 meters, losing about onefifth of its length and one-third of its volume. Source: USGS.
Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• 4.3.5—What is the nature and extent of abrupt climate change

in the Holocene? Are these stochastic events or the result of

periodic forcing?

• 4.3.6—What is the potential for high-impact climate changes,

such as much drier and warmer summers over the mid-continents

of North America and Eurasia, accelerated Arctic warming, and

more intense coastal storm surges and coastal erosion due to

rising sea levels?

• 4.3.7—What would be the environmental consequences of

extreme warming in the Arctic, and what would be the expected

feedbacks on global climate?

Research Needs

Improved paleoclimatic data sets, expanded observing and monitoring

systems and rigorous paleoclimate modeling studies will be

required to identify the causes and mechanisms of past abrupt

changes. Efforts should be focused on key regions or phenomena

that may be especially vulnerable or contribute most strongly to

abrupt climate change, such as the tropics, the Arctic and Antarctic

regions, and the ocean thermohaline circulation. Significant

research into how to numerically model the full three-dimensional

circulation of the ocean will be required in order to accurately

project impacts and time scales for abrupt changes, which range from

interannual ENSO variability to centennial-millennial fluctuations in

the ocean circulation. Key research

needs include better understanding of

the relationships between abrupt change

and:

• Oceanic circulation, especially related

to deepwater formation

• Sea-ice transport and processes,

particularly where they interact with

deepwater formation

• Land-ice behavior, including conditions

beneath ice sheets

• Modes of atmospheric variability and

how they are altered by changes in

mean climate conditions

• The hydrological cycle, including

storage, runoff, and permafrost

changes.The Water Cycle research

element will provide studies and

modeling of cryosphere hydrological

processes to complement the efforts

of Climate Variability and Change to

address cryosphere-atmosphereocean coupling and feedbacks.

Milestones, Products,

and Payoffs

Products

• Databases of drought and megadrought occurrences in North

America (Questions 4.3.1 and

4.3.6) [2-4 years].

• Online database of annual-to-decadal

resolution paleoclimatic time series

48

and maps of Arctic climate variability over the past 2,000 years

(Questions 4.3.2, 4.3.6, and 4.3.7) [2-4 years].

• Improved understanding of thresholds and nonlinearities in the

climate system, especially for coupled atmosphere-ocean,

ocean thermocline and deepwater, hydrology, land surface,

biogeochemical cycle, and ice processes (Questions 4.3.3 and

4.3.5) [beyond 4 years]. Advances require cooperation with the

Water Cycle and Carbon Cycle research elements.

• Improvements in the accuracy, management, and synthesis of

paleoclimatic data that can be combined with instrumental

observations and climate models to address the nature and

likelihood of future abrupt climate changes (Questions 4.3.2

and 4.3.4) [beyond 4 years].

• Policy-relevant information of the state of understanding on the

causes of abrupt changes, and probabilistic estimates of future

risks of abrupt global and regional climate-induced changes,

including the collapse of the thermohaline circulation, persistent

ENSO conditions, and abrupt sea-level rises, in support of

national and international assessments (Questions 4.3.4 and

4.3.6) [2-4 years and beyond].

Payoff

• Increased use and effectiveness of paleoclimate data and analyses

of abrupt change to better inform environmental decisions and

adaptation strategies [4 years and beyond].

FY04 CCRI Priority -

Polar Feedbacks

The Climate Change Research Initiative

(CCRI) will leverage existing USGCRP

research to address major gaps in

understanding climate change. Polar

systems may be especially sensitive to

climate change and might provide early

indications of climate change as well as

interact with climate variability and change

through several important feedback

processes.

The CCRI will support research to

improve understanding of processes that

determine the behavior of slowly varying

elements of the physical climate system,

especially the oceanic and cryospheric

portions. Particular foci include the

processes by which ice-covered regions

of the high-latitude Earth behave, the

processes by which the distribution of

sea ice varies, and the way in which

knowledge of ocean circulation can be

enhanced through use of global observations

of ocean state and forcing parameters.

The development and testing of new

capabilities for measuring climatic

properties, such as ocean surface salinity,

mixed layer depth, and ice sheet thickness

will also be carried out.

The CCRI will support the obtaining of

systematic data sets for a limited number

of Earth system parameters such as ice

thickness, extent, and concentration in

the case of sea ice, and mass balance and

surface temperatures in the case of land

ice and snow cover. It will shortly enable

the initiation of regular observations of

ice-sheet thickness. Data assimilation

systems using satellite data that provide

for accurate, geophysically consistent

data sets will also be carried out through

this program.The polar feedbacks

research will also contribute to decision

support through cryospheric observations

and associated models that enable the

initialization and verification of climate

models, and the reduction in uncertainty

of model output.The models will also

provide real-time information for use by

the U.S. Navy and commercial maritime

interests in high-latitude regions.

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

BOX 4-2 
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change

State of Knowledge

One of the highest priorities for decisionmakers is to determine

how climate variations, whether natural or human-induced, alter

the frequencies, intensities, and locations of extreme events (NRC,

1999a).There is now compelling evidence that some natural climate

variations, such as ENSO, PDV, and the NAO/NAM, can significantly

alter the behavior of extreme events, including floods, droughts,

hurricanes, and cold waves (IPCC, 2001a,b). Studies of long-term

trends in extreme events show that in many regions where average

rainfall has been increasing, these trends are evident in extreme

precipitation events (there continues to be debate on how to define

an extreme precipitation event). For other high-impact phenomena,

such as tropical storms/hurricanes, no compelling evidence yet

exists for significant trends in frequency of occurrence (IPCC,

2001a,b).

A question central to both short-term climate predictions and

longer term climate change is how climate variability and change

will alter the probability distributions of various quantities, such as

of temperature and precipitation, as well as related temporal

characteristics (e.g., persistence), and hence the likelihood of

extreme events (see Figure 4-6). A key challenge is to develop

improved methods for modeling or downscaling climate information

to the scales required for extreme event analysis (IPCC, 2001a).

Further, understanding of the processes by which climate variability

and change modulate extreme event behavior is incomplete. Major

research questions include:

• 4.4.1—What is the range of natural variability in extreme

events, by phenomena and region?

• 4.4.2—How do frequencies and intensities of extreme events

vary across time scales?

• 4.4.3—What are observed and modeled trends in extreme

events and how do they compare?

• 4.4.4—How are the characteristics of extreme events changed

by natural climate variations, for example, by ENSO, PDV,

NAO/NAM and SAM?

• 4.4.5—To what extent are changes in the statistics of extreme

events predictable?

• 4.4.6—How are behaviors of extreme events likely to change

over this century, and what are the mechanisms that would be

expected to produce these changes?

• 4.4.7—How can the emerging findings on climate-extreme

event links be best developed and communicated to evaluate

societal and environmental vulnerability and opportunities?

Research Needs

Progress in this area will require two key steps. First, it will be

necessary to advance scientific understanding and quantitative

estimates of how natural climate variations such as ENSO,

NAO/NAM, SAM, or PDV alter the probabilities of extreme events

(e.g., floods, droughts, hurricanes, or storm surges). Second, it will

be essential to improve understanding of how human-induced climate

change may alter natural variations of the atmosphere, ocean, land

surface, and cryosphere, and hence the behavior of extreme events

in different regions.

Key data requirements include the development of improved climatequality data and reference data sets and higher resolution model

reanalyses to support analyses of extreme event variability and

trends. High-resolution observations together with focused process

studies will be essential for scientific evaluation of regional model

simulations, especially in regions with significant topographic

variations, such as mountainous and coastal regions. Higher resolution

paleoclimatic data will also be necessary to improve descriptions

and understanding of how natural climate variations have in the past

altered drought, mega-drought, flood, and tropical storm variability

(see Question 4.3). Improving hydrological extreme event risk

estimates will require improved hydrological data sets and advances

in coupled climate-land surface-hydrology models (see Chapters 5,

6, 11, and 12).

Empirical and diagnostic research will be required to ascertain

relationships between natural climate modes, boundary forcing

mechanisms (e.g., SST variations, land surface and cryospheric

changes), and extreme events; to clarify the physical bases for these

relationships; and to evaluate the veracity of model simulations and

projections. Model sensitivity experiments will significantly advance

understanding of how natural climate modes, boundary variations,

and human-induced climate trends alter the probabilities of extreme

events. Further development of regional climate modeling and improved

downscaling techniques will be necessary to provide information at the

scales needed by resource managers and decisionmakers.

Continuing development of ensemble-based approaches, and the

capabilities to produce large ensembles from climate models, will

be essential in order to improve probability estimates of extreme

events for either short-term climate predictions or longer term

climate projections. Because extreme events can have societal and

environmental impacts, it will be essential to identify key climate

information needed to better anticipate and plan for such events

(see Question 4.5 and Chapters 9 and 11).

49

Question 4.4: How are extreme events, such as

droughts, floods, wildfires, heat waves, and hurricanes,

related to climate variability and change?

Figure 4-6: Heavy rains and high surf from storms associated with the

1998 El Niño event produced severe erosion along the California coast,

leading to major property losses. Source: Paul Neiman, Environmental

Technology Laboratory, NOAA.
Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

Products

• Improved observational databases, including paleoclimate and

historical data records, and model simulations of past climate to

detect and analyze regional trends in extreme events and to

assess whether changes in the frequencies of extreme events lie

within or outside the range of natural variability (Questions

4.4.1-4.4.3) [2-4 years and beyond].

• Observational and statistical analyses to assess the relationships

between extreme events and natural climate variations, such as

ENSO, PDV, NAO/NAM, and SAM (Question 4.4.4) [2-4 years

and beyond].

• Improved diagnostic capabilities to better interpret the causes of

high-impact climate events, such as droughts or unusually cold

or warm seasons (Question 4.4.4) [2-4 years and beyond].

– Aspects of this research require data, information, and analyses

of regional hydrological processes related to floods and

droughts, to be provided by the Water Cycle ressearch element.

• Assessments of potential predictability and forecasts of probabilities

of extreme events associated with natural climate variations

(Questions 4.4.4 and 4.4.5) [2-4 years and beyond].

– For floods and droughts, the Water Cycle research element

will focus on the role of hydrological feedbacks and the

predictability of extreme events on weather time scales.The

Climate Variability and Change research element will focus

on variations and changes that generate conditions favorable

for extreme events, assess the predictability of these events,

and develop products useful for applications (e.g., extreme

event outlooks) on seasonal and longer time scales.

• Documented impacts of climate extremes on regions and sectors,

and evaluations of the implications should climate change in the

future (Question 4.4.6) [2-4 years and beyond].

• Policy-relevant information on past variability and trends in

extreme events, and probabilistic estimates of possible future

changes in frequencies, intensities, and geographical distributions

of extreme events in support of national and international

assessments (Question 4.4.1 and 4.4.6) [2-4 years and beyond].

Payoffs

• Improved anticipation of and response to extreme climate events

(e.g., to reduce regional impacts of ENSO or more rapidly

respond to emerging droughts) [2-4 years and beyond].

• Increased understanding of and capabilities to project the

regional manifestations of extreme climate events, to provide a

sounder scientific basis for policymakers to develop strategies to

minimize potential vulnerabilities [beyond 4 years].

State of Knowledge

Research in this area focuses on making climate knowledge more

useful and responsive to the needs of decisionmakers, policymakers,

and the public. Climate information, when integrated together with

knowledge of non-climatic factors, can reduce costs and risks related

to climate variability and change while increasing management and

decisionmaking opportunities across a broad range of sectors, from

local and regional to global scales (NRC, 1999a; IPCC, 2001b).

For example, pilot efforts in sustained regional integrated science

research, such as the NOAA-supported Regional Integrated Science

and Assessments (RISA) projects, NASA Regional Earth Science

Application Centers (RESACs), and NOAA-supported International

Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) for areas outside of

the United States, have provided opportunities to apply climate

information in decision processes in climate-sensitive sectors,

including agriculture, water, energy (e.g., hydropower), and forest

(wildfire) management. USEPA also sponsors regional science and

assessment projects. Finally, specialized entities outside the research

domain, such as state climatologists, regional climate centers, and

agricultural cooperative networks, have served as partners and

liaisons by identifying and communicating climate information

needs and requirements between the climate research and service

communities and a broad array of users.

With continuing population growth and increasing demands on

environmental resources, the need to more effectively identify,

develop, and provide climate information useful for society will

become ever more vital. Even in the absence of human-induced climate

changes, further research in this area provides new opportunities

for resource managers and policymakers to develop strategies to

reduce vulnerabilities to natural climate variability. Major questions

include:

• 4.5.1—What new climate information would provide the greatest

potential for benefits, for different regions and sectors?

• 4.5.2—How can climate information be best developed for use

in adaptive management strategies?

• 4.5.3—Can new climate indicators be developed to better

assess climate vulnerability and resilience in climate-sensitive

sectors such as agriculture, water, marine fisheries and other

environmental resources, transportation, and the built environment,

as well as other potential societal impacts (positive and negative),

including on human health? 

• 4.5.4—What are potential entry points and barriers to uses of

climate information?

• 4.5.5—How can access to and communication of climate data and

forecasts be improved in order to better serve the needs of the

public, scientific community, decisionmakers, and policymakers?

Research Needs

In recent reports the National Research Council (NRC) identifies

the “region” as a key scale for decisionmaking, and stresses the critical

need to improve regional scientific capabilities and user interactions

to better inform such decisions (NRC, 1999a, 2001e). As these

reports emphasize, the impacts of climate variability and change

will continue to be felt most directly at regional to local scales—for

example, within natural boundaries associated with coastlines,

mountains, or watersheds, within the context of demographics,

ecosystems, and land use, and within the context of its economic

and technological wherewithal. A central goal of research over the

next decade will be to improve capabilities to identify, develop, and

deliver climate information at regional to local scales in order to

better meet societal needs.

50

Question 4.5: How can information on climate

variability and change be most efficiently developed,

integrated with non-climatic knowledge, and

communicated in order to best serve societal needs?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change

A key challenge in this area is to continue developing the observational,

diagnostic, and modeling expertise required to determine the

impacts of climate variability and change at global and regional

scales.The required basic science research must be complemented

by a strong applied research component to ensure identification of

key regional issues and impacts of multiple stresses on resource

management, determine responsiveness to user needs, and develop

objective means for measuring success.To be developed most

effectively, these research efforts should be conducted as sustained,

two-way partnerships that directly involve decisionmakers and other

regional stakeholders.This will help to ensure that results of climate

research are made most useful for applications. Further, user needs

can provide important guidance for developing future research

directions. Regional “test beds” or “enterprises” can serve as important

foci for developing such partnerships, evaluating potential uses of

climate information at regional scales, and performing analyses of

regional climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation

options related to climate variability and change.They can also be

used as demonstration projects for providing end-to-end delivery of

climate information and evaluations of its uses, and for establishing

an improved national decision support capability.

Because of the difficulties in evaluating the effectiveness of decisions

with long lead times, important initial steps toward building confidence

in the use of climate information can be made through focused

research on shorter term decisions, such as those that occur on

monthly and seasonal-to-interannual time scales (e.g., agriculture,

water management, energy distribution, wildfire management).

Improved information for supporting climate-sensitive decisions on

these time frames will be critical for building credibility on the uses

of climate data and projections to better inform difficult, long-term

decisions. A focus on shorter term climate variability also provides

opportunities to try various decision options.(e.g., through adaptive

management strategies). Evaluating the effectiveness of strategies on

shorter time scales will be useful for developing longer term policy

options and decisions.

As climate knowledge improves, evaluation can be extended to

multi-year and decadal time scales, which will provide an important

bridge to policy and decision options related to longer term changes.

In this regard, the decadal time scale offers a valuable bridge for

research on climate-sensitive adaptive strategies across time scales.

It links the management of the impacts of individual extreme events

and interannual variations to longer term variations and can provide

tangible observational regional analogs for climatic change.

To ensure that these efforts are efficient and cost-effective, it will be

crucial to involve existing regional experts in climate information,

applications, and user needs, such as state climatologists, regional

climate centers, university extension agents, local weather service

offices, and members of the private sector.These regional efforts must

ultimately be coordinated effectively in order to provide information

that will serve the needs of policymakers and decisionmakers at the

national level (see Chapter 11).

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

Milestones and Products

• Establishment of research teams involving climate and social

scientists and stakeholders in climate-sensitive regions to create

focused, user-responsive partnerships (Questions 4.5.1–4.5.5)

[less than 2 years and beyond].

• Increased partnerships with existing stakeholder support

institutions, such as state climatologists, regional climate centers,

agricultural extension services, resource management agencies,

and state governments to accelerate uses of climate information

(Questions 4.5.1–4.5.5) [less than 2 years and beyond].

• Assessments of the adequacy of existing operational climate

monitoring networks to provide regional decision support, and

to identify major data gaps in addressing critical regional and

policy issues, such as drought planning and response (Questions

4.5.1 and 4.5.2) [2-4 years].

• Development of high-resolution climate products for climatesensitive regions, based on monthly instrumental data, annual

paleoclimatic data, and climate forecasts (Questions 4.5.1 and

4.5.3) [2-4 years and beyond].

• Documented regional impacts of climate variability, and

development of reports on the potential implications of projected

climate changes (Questions 4.5.1 and 4.5.5) [beyond 4 years].

• Development of a framework for assessing the effectiveness of

current regional-scale climate science and services (Question

4.5.5) [2-4 years].

• Development of first-generation “test bed” integrated climate

science and assessment decision support systems for subsets of

user groups (e.g., farmers, ranchers, water managers, forest

managers, fisheries managers, coastal zone managers, urban

planners, and public health officials) in regions where user

demand is already demonstrated (Question 4.5.5) [2-4 years

and beyond].

• Policy-relevant information on uses and needs for climate

information, and potential impacts of future climate variability

and change at regional to local levels, in support of national and

international assessments (Question 4.5.1-4.5.5) [2-4 years and

beyond].

Payoffs

• Expanded decision support resources and the capacity to effectively

apply climate knowledge [2-4 years and beyond].

• Increased public and decisionmaker use of research-based

information on climate variations, forecasts, and impacts

[2-4 years and beyond].

• Knowledge to develop and sustain effective climate services for

all parts of the nation and to support national decisionmaking

capabilities [2-4 years and beyond].

Internationally coordinated research programs such as the World

Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and its projects Climate

Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR), Stratospheric Processes and

their Role in Climate (SPARC), Climate and Cryosphere (CliC), the

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), as well as

the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) PAGES

paleoscience project are critical for developing global infrastructure

and research activities designed to ensure that global aspects of climate

variability and change are addressed in a coordinated manner.

51

National and International Partnerships
Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

of Climate Prediction is leading international development of climate

predictions and their applications. Finally, NOAA’s National Centers

for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will also contribute in many

key areas including climate monitoring and diagnostics, forecasting,

reanalyses, and high-resolution weather modeling. Stronger linkages

with NCEP and other members of the weather modeling community

will be most helpful in advancing capabilities to address issues of

high societal relevance, such as downscaling information to regional

and local scales and improving predictions and projections of extreme

events. Finally, involving the cadre of regional climate centers and

state climatologists will help ensure that regional and user expertise

is represented in the development of effective frameworks for

developing useful information.

52

In particular, CLIVAR—the broadest of the WCRP programs

(WCRP, 1995)—has a suite of vigorous activities that address

numerous facets of the climate problem. For example, its Working

Group on Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction leads worldwide

development and assessment of prediction approaches and forecast

systems while the CLIVAR-WCRP Working Group on Coupled

Modeling is fostering advancements in coupled modeling. In the

Atlantic region, CLIVAR is actively coordinating and encouraging

international (e.g., U.S., European, and South American) observational,

analysis, and modeling activities that will advance understanding and

predictions of the puzzling climate changes that impact this region.

These research activities are identifying how the regional climate

changes are manifested through features such as TAV and

NAO/NAM. Furthermore, CLIVAR investigations are elucidating

critical ocean-atmosphere-land-cryosphere (and with WCRPSPARC, stratosphere-troposphere) coupled processes as well as

critical inherent features such as the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline

circulation that must be correctly modeled to project future climate

changes. CLIVAR and WCRP are fostering numerous activities in

the Americas that are addressing global issues (e.g., process studies

focusing on the evolution and dynamics of the monsoons) as well as

regional issues (e.g., extreme events, paleoenvironmental variability)

and their implications for the global climate system.

Within the United States there are a number of partners that will

coordinate implementation of the Climate Variability and Change

strategic vision. U.S. CLIVAR has in place a nucleus of scientific

and programmatic elements, but will need to strengthen ties with

additional WCRP groups (e.g., U.S. CliC) as well as with focused

model and assimilation system development (e.g., at the National

Center for Atmospheric Research, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

Laboratory, and the Goddard Space Flight Center).The deep-ocean

observation program—a joint U.S. CLIVAR-Carbon Cycle Study

Program effort—is fostering a complementary international

component that is providing an example of the benefits of program

coordination. Additionally, NOAA’s International Research Institute

Lead Authors

Randall Dole, NOAA

Jay Fein, NSF

David Bader, DOE

Ming Ji, NOAA

Anjuli Bamzai, NOAA

Tsengdar Lee, NASA

David Legler, CLIVAR

Milan Pavich, USGS

David Verardo, NSF

Contributors

Stephen Meacham, NSF

Anthony Socci, USEPA

James Todd, NOAA

David Rind, NASA

Ants Leetmaa, NOAA

CHAPTER 4 AUTHORS
CHAPTER CONTENTS

Question 5.1:What are the mechanisms and

processes responsible for the maintenance and

variability of the water cycle; are the characteristics

of the cycle changing and, if so, to what extent are

human activities responsible for those changes?

Question 5.2: How do feedback processes control

the interactions between the global water cycle and

other parts of the climate system (e.g., carbon

cycle, energy), and how are these feedbacks

changing over time?

Question 5.3:What are the key uncertainties in

seasonal-to-interannual predictions and long-term

projections of water cycle variables, and what

improvements are needed in global and regional

models to reduce these uncertainties?

Question 5.4:What are the consequences over a

range of space and time scales of water cycle

variability and change for human societies and

ecosystems, and how do they interact with the Earth system to affect sediment transport and

nutrient and biogeochemical cycles?

Question 5.5: How can global water cycle information be used to inform decision processes

in the context of changing water resource conditions and policies?

National and International Partnerships

CHAPTER

53

The water cycle is essential to life on Earth. As a result of

complex interactions (see Figure 5-1), the water cycle acts

as an integrator within the Earth/climate system, controlling

climate variability and maintaining a suitable climate for

life.The water cycle manifests itself through many

processes and phenomena, such as clouds and precipitation;

ocean-atmosphere, cryosphere-atmosphere, and landatmosphere interactions; mountain snow packs; groundwater;

and extreme events such as droughts and floods.

Inadequate understanding of and limited ability to model

and predict water cycle processes and their associated

feedbacks account for many of the uncertainties associated

with our understanding of long-term changes in the climate

system and their potential impacts, as described by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For

example, clouds, precipitation, and water vapor produce

feedbacks that alter surface and atmospheric heating and

cooling rates, and the redistribution of the associated heat

sources and sinks leads to adjustments in atmospheric circulation,

evaporation, and precipitation patterns.

Because water cycle processes occur, are observed, and are studied

at a wide variety of scales (watershed, basin,continental, global),

understanding of the water cycle is extremely challenging.

Characterizing the interactions between the land and the

atmosphere will require capabilities, such as improved observations

and regional climate models, to scale down global climate model

fields and to scale up the effects of land surface heterogeneity.

The interactions between oceans and the atmosphere manifest

themselves as the slower modes of climate variability, as described

in Chapter 4.

Clean water is an essential resource for human life, health, economic

growth, and the vitality of ecosystems. From social and economic

perspectives, the needs for water supplies adequate for human

uses—such as drinking water, industry, irrigated agriculture,

Water Cycle 5 
Chapter 5.Water Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

hydropower, waste disposal, and the protection of human and

ecosystem health—are critical.Water supplies are subject to a range

of stresses, such as population growth, pollution, and industrial and

urban development.These stresses are exacerbated by climate

variations and changes that alter the hydrologic cycle in ways that

are currently not predicted with sufficient accuracy for

decisionmakers. A number of these concerns and related questions

and strategies are documented in a recent report on research needs

and opportunities, A Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global

Water Cycle (USGCRP, 2001), which formed the basis for initial

interagency planning related to the global water cycle.

Advances in observing techniques, combined with increased computing

power and improved numerical models, now offer new opportunities

for significant scientific progress. Furthermore, field studies and

modeling initiatives like the Global Energy and Water Cycle

Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project,

observation systems such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

(TRMM, see Figure 5-2), and regional test beds such as the Cloud

Atmospheric Radiation Testbed (CART)/Atmospheric Radiation

Measurement (ARM) site have provided data and insights that

accelerated improvements in model physics. Recently, for example,

credible predictions of seasonal variations in the water cycle have

been produced for the western United States and Florida.This

activity has served as a basis for dialogue between the research

community and decisionmakers on the latter’s information needs

and on opportunities for improving the adaptability of infrastructure

and management practices to long-term changes and extremes.

Along with the growing ability to provide advance notice of

extreme hydrologic events, this forecast capability provides new

options for social and economic development and resource and

ecosystem management.

In addition, recently launched satellites such as Terra, Aqua,

GRACE, and IceSAT, among others, will substantially increase the

detailed data needed to better understand and model global and

regional water cycle processes.The water cycle variables needed

from satellite and in situ systems and field campaigns are included in

the comprehensive list shown in Appendix 12.1. In addition, there

are some central water cycle variables that will be featured in water

cycle prediction efforts including clouds, precipitation, soil moisture,

runoff, evaporation, and infiltration rate.

At the same time, considerable additional effort will be required to

extract accurate regional and local climate predictions from global

models. Furthermore, effective operational application of many of

these new prediction and measurement capabilities is hampered by the

lack of adequate networks for observing critical water cycle variables

such as soil moisture, and the absence of effective coordination of

terrestrial water observing activities.

To address the urgent need for better information on the water

cycle, the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is planning its

Water Cycle research program around two overarching questions:

• How does water cycle variability and change caused by internal

processes, climate feedbacks, and human activities influence the

distribution of water within the Earth system, and to what

extent is this variability and change predictable?

• What are the potential consequences of global water cycle

variability and change for society and the environment, and how

can knowledge of this variability and change improve decisions

dependent on the water cycle?

The following five questions address different aspects of these

overarching questions.The first overarching question is dealt with in

54

Figure 5-1: Conceptualization of the

global water cycle and its interactions

with all other components of the

Earth-climate system. The water

cycle involves water in all three of its

phases [solid (snow, ice), liquid, and

gaseous], operates on a continuum

of time and space scales, and

exchanges large amounts of energy

as water undergoes phase changes

and is moved dynamically from one

part of the Earth system to another.

These interactions with radiation and

atmospheric circulation dynamics link

the water and energy cycles of the

Earth system. Source: Paul Houser

and Adam Schlosser, NASA GSFC.

For more information, see Annex C.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 5.Water Cycle

questions 5.1 to 5.3. Questions 5.4 and 5.5 relate to the second

question. Further clarification of the science emphasis planned for

each of the five areas is provided by the illustrative science questions.

Linkages between the Water Cycle element and other CCSP elements

are noted in parentheses after each illustrative question.

State of Knowledge

The global water cycle encompasses the distribution and movement

of water in its three phases throughout the Earth system and

includes precipitation, surface and subsurface runoff, oceans, cloud

cover, atmospheric water vapor, soil moisture, groundwater, and so

on.The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC, 2001a) cites evidence of possibly significant

changes in critical water cycle and related climate variables during

the 20th century.These include a 0.6 ± 0.2°C increase in global mean

surface temperature, a 7-12% increase in continental precipitation

over much of the Northern Hemisphere, massive retreats of most

mountain glaciers, and later autumn freeze-up and earlier spring

break-up dates for ice cover on many Northern Hemisphere lakes.

Less certain, but potentially important possible changes, include a

2% increase in total cloud cover over many mid- to high-latitude

land areas, increases in total area affected globally by combined

extreme events including droughts and floods, and a 20% increase in

the amount of water vapor in the lower stratosphere. Other studies

suggest other conclusions, indicating that the question of significant

changes may still be open for some water cycle variables.

Because there is a substantial range of natural variability in the climate

system due to internal processes alone, it is difficult to distinguish

natural excursions from the “norm” from changes that might be the

result of forcing due to human activities, such as land-use change and

aerosols (see Figure 5-3).The distribution and nature of atmospheric

aerosols have an effect on both cloud radiative properties and the

generation of precipitation. Moreover, the impact of increased

upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric water vapor on the radiative

balance and cloud structure is potentially quite large.These effects

are not yet well enough understood to accurately project their

impact on water and energy cycles or to predict the effects of climate

change on regional water resources. Although significant advances

have been made in modeling moderately sized watersheds, current

global climate models cannot properly simulate many aspects of the

global water cycle, such as precipitation amounts, frequency, and

diurnal cycle, as well as cloud distribution and its influence on climate.

Without appropriate models to conduct tests, it is difficult to

attribute observed trends to human-induced climate changes or

natural variability.

Illustrative Research Questions

• How have the characteristics of the water cycle changed in

recent years, and to what extent are the changes attributable to

natural variability and human-induced causes (Chapter 4)? 

• What are the key mechanisms and processes responsible for

maintaining the global water cycle and its variability over space

and time scales relevant for climate (Chapter 4)? 

• How are regional groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and

runoff affected by changing global precipitation and vegetation

patterns, and cryospheric processes (Chapter 8)? 

• How have changes in land use and water management and

agricultural practices affected trends in regional and global

water cycles (Chapter 6)?

• How do aerosols, their chemical composition, and distribution

affect cloud formation and precipitation processes, patterns, and

trends (Chapter 3)?

• With what accuracy can local and global water and energy

budgets be closed? 

• What is the relative importance of local and remote factors in

extreme hydrologic events such as droughts and floods (Chapter 4)?

• What are the characteristics of upper tropospheric/lower

stratospheric water vapor and clouds and how are they affected

by deep convection (Chapter 4)?

55

Figure 5-2: The TRMM Space-Based Observatory—a joint project of NASA

and Japan’s National Space Development Agency (NASDA)—monitors

global tropical precipitation, sea surface temperature, hurricane structure,

and other key aspects of the global water cycle. These particular renderings

are visualizations of the vertical structure of a typical hurricane created

using data from TRMM’s Precipitation Radar (Hurricane Bonnie,

August/September 1998). Source: X. Shiraz and Y. Morales, NASA

Scientific Visualization Studio.

Question 5.1:What are the mechanisms and

processes responsible for the maintenance and

variability of the water cycle; are the characteristics

of the cycle changing and, if so, to what extent are

human activities responsible for those changes?
Chapter 5.Water Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Research Needs

Although techniques for measuring water cycle variables have

improved, the number of observations is limited and, in some cases,

new sensors are needed. New satellite and in situ observing capabilities

will be critical for detecting patterns and quantifying fluxes, especially

in terrestrial variables such as soil moisture, and atmosphere-ocean

fluxes. Existing in situ networks need to be maintained and

enhanced, particularly those monitoring precipitation, river discharge,

and snow pack. Data sets should be developed using historical and new

observations to ensure consistency in the record and for sufficiently

long time periods to assess climate variability. Network enhancements

and open data access are needed to address water-related issues

especially in areas that are currently underrepresented. Also needed

are new data assimilation techniques to produce consistent data

products for research and process studies from inhomogeneous

and/or disparate observations. Appropriate paleoclimate data sets

must be assembled to provide a long-term perspective on water

cycle variability. New models are needed that can simulate critical

water processes at resolutions that allow comparison with long-term

data sets. Finally, a wide range of process studies must be conducted

to provide understanding of the mechanisms that maintain the

water cycle system.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• In collaboration with the Observing and Monitoring research

element, development of an integrated global observing strategy

for water cycle variables, employing Observational System

Simulation Experiments (OSSE) as appropriate [less than 2 years].

• Documentation of trends in key water cycle variables through

data analysis and comparisons with model simulations to assess

the mechanisms responsible for these trends [beyond 4 years].

• Planned satellite measurements and focused field studies to

better characterize water vapor in the climate-critical area of

the tropical tropopause (the boundary between the troposphere

and the stratosphere) [2-4 years].

• Regional and global precipitation products that merge

measurements from different satellite and other remote-sensing

data streams to support joint Water Cycle/Climate Variability

and Change studies of ocean- and land-atmosphere coupling and

the global energy balance [2-4 years].

• Integrated long-term global and regional data sets of critical

water cycle variables such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture,

groundwater, clouds, etc., from satellite and in situ observations

for monitoring climate trends and early detection of potential

climate change [2-4 years].The Ecosystems, Carbon Cycle, and

other CCSP research elements will use these data sets as inputs

for their analyses and model development studies.

• Results from process studies related to the indirect effects of

aerosols on clouds will be available for future assessments of

climate sensitivity to aerosols [2-4 years].

• Improved regional water cycle process parameterizations based

on process studies conducted over regional test beds to improve

the reliability of climate change projections [beyond 4 years].

• Development of analyses for a State of the Water Cycle evaluation

[beyond 4 years].

State of Knowledge

Feedback processes operating between the global water cycle and

other components of the Earth/climate system represent the

response to external forcing, such as increases in atmospheric carbon

dioxide (CO2). For example, results from climate models suggest

there will be an increase in water vapor as the climate warms.

Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere;

therefore, an increase would result in a strong positive feedback on

temperature. Clouds strongly influence the energy budget because

of their impact on the radiative balance, but the net cloud-radiation

feedback is uncertain. Quantifying the water vapor-cloud-radiation

feedback is key to understanding climate sensitivity and the factors

governing climate change.

Because the physical processes responsible for the vertical transport

of water vapor, cloud formation, cloud-radiation interactions, and

precipitation occur at scales that currently are not resolved by climate

models, they are parameterized. Although progress has been made

in developing and applying high-resolution cloud-resolving models,

to date the benefits of these developments for parameterizing threedimensional cloud distributions in climate models have not been

fully realized.

Climate model results also indicate that temperature increases will

be amplified in the Arctic due to feedbacks involving permafrost,

snow, and ice cover. Should these amplified increases occur, melting

continental snow and ice may result in changes in northern river

runoff and ocean salinity, while thawing permafrost may lead to

increased releases of methane (a greenhouse gas) to the atmosphere.

Given the same greenhouse gas increases, individual climate models

produce different rates of warming and drastically different patterns

of circulation, precipitation, and soil moisture depending on how

56

Figure 5-3: Observational evidence showing the effect of aerosols on

cloud formation and precipitation processes over south Australia. The yellow

patches within Area 2 have reduced droplet sizes, indicating the presence

of pollution. White patches outside Area 2 indicate rainfall. Although

measurements indicated ample water in the polluted clouds, the smaller

droplet size may have prevented precipitation. Source: NASA GSFC

(research results from Daniel Rosenfield, The Hebrew University of

Jerusalem). For more information, see Annex C.

Question 5.2: How do feedback processes control

the interactions between the global water cycle and

other parts of the climate system (e.g., carbon cycle,

energy), and how are these feedbacks changing

over time?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 5.Water Cycle

feedback processes are represented in the models. Basic understanding

of feedback processes must be improved and incorporated into models.

Illustrative Research Questions

• What is the sign and magnitude of the current water vaporcloud-radiation-climate feedback effect (Chapter 4)?

• How do changes in water vapor and water vapor gradients, from

the stratosphere to the surface, affect radiation fluxes, surface

radiation budgets, cloud formation and distribution, and

precipitation patterns, globally and regionally (Chapter 4)?

• How do freshwater fluxes to and from the ocean that affect the

global ocean circulation and climate (precipitation, river discharge,

sea-ice melt, evaporation) vary, and how may they be changing

(Chapter 4)?

• How do changes in global and regional water cycles interact

with evapotranspiration, vegetation and the carbon cycle and

vice versa (Chapters 7 and 8)?

• What are the interactions between land surface changes and

regional water cycles (Chapter 6)?

• How might an intensification of the hydrological cycle, warming

in the Arctic, and melting permafrost affect the production of

methane and nitrous oxide (Chapters 4 and 7)?

Research Needs

Model development can be accelerated by acquiring data from

interdisciplinary field studies over regional test beds, such as those

shown in Figure 5-4, to provide a better understanding of scaling

effects and the best way to include them in parameterizations. New

parameterizations of water cycle/climate feedbacks (e.g., cloudaerosol and land-atmosphere) and sub-grid-scale processes (e.g.,

clouds, precipitation, evaporation) will have to be developed and

validated, and the sensitivity of global climate models to these new

parameterizations will have to be evaluated. Research on water and

clouds will have to be closely linked to investigations of aerosols.

The development and implementation of instrument systems over

selected, globally distributed, test beds is essential. The data

products must be comprehensive and include groundwater, and

they should have sufficient resolution to assess optimal sampling

strategies for future observational campaigns and field programs

over larger regions.Where appropriate, data and experimental field

sites will be shared with the Ecosystems and Carbon Cycle research

elements.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• New observationally tested parameterizations for clouds and

precipitation processes for use in climate models based on

cloud-resolving models developed in part through field process

studies [2-4 years].This will support Climate Variability and

Change research element work on climate feedbacks.

• Incorporation of water cycle processes, interactions, and

feedbacks into an integrated Earth system modeling framework

[2-4 years].

57

Figure 5-4: Water vapor measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from 29 November to

2 December 2002. Top Panel: Measured water vapor mixing ratio from the Raman lidar. These charts of the fundamental measured quantity from the lidar

give unique information about the vertical and horizontal scales of turbulent fluxes that transport moisture. Middle Panel: Relative humidity calculated from the

mixing ratio and associated temperature data at the SGP. Bottom Panel: Comparison between the integrated water vapor from the Raman lidar and the

measured water vapor path from the microwave radiometer. Source: David Turner, University of Wisconsin, DOE ARM Program.

CART Raman Lidar Mixing Ratio Data

CART Raman Lidar RH Data

Precipitable Water Vapor

PWV (cm) Altitude (km AGL) Altitude (km AGL)

0 1 2 3 4 5 76 0 20 40 60 10080

0 6 12 18 0 6 1812 0 6 12 18 0 6 1812 0

MWR

Raman Lidar

Water Vapor Mixing Ratio (g kg Relative Humidity (%) -1)

Hour (UTC)

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6
Chapter 5.Water Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• Quantification of the potential changes in the cryosphere,

including the effects of permafrost melting on regional hydrology

and the carbon budget, and the consequences for mountain

snowpacks, sea ice, and glaciers [beyond 4 years].These efforts

will complement those of the Climate Variability and Change

and Carbon Cycle research elements in the area of cryosphereatmosphere-ocean coupling and feedbacks.

• In collaboration with the Climate Variability and Change

research element, sensitivity tests of global models to improve

parameterizations of feedbacks and sub-grid-scale processes

(land-cover change, land surface processes, precipitation, clouds,

etc.) [beyond 4 years].

• Enhanced data sets for feedback studies, including water cycle

variables, aerosols, vegetation, and other related feedback

variables, generated from a combination of satellite and groundbased data [2-4 years].These data sets will be critical for most

CCSP research elements.

• Together with the Land-Use/Land-Cover Change and Carbon

Cycle research elements, improved coupled land-atmosphere

models and enhanced capability to assess the consequences of

different land-use change scenarios [beyond 4 years].

State of Knowledge

Improved seasonal predictions of water resource availability and

their application can have major economic benefits. For example, in

1999, if the experimental spring runoff forecasts for the Green

River had been used, improved water management decisions could

have resulted in more efficient use of stored water and yielded more

than $3.1 million in additional revenues from power production and

irrigation.While precipitation forecasts on “weather” time scales

have improved, current global and regional models demonstrate

limited skill in predicting precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff on

seasonal and longer time scales.Water managers indicate this skill

level to be inadequate for their needs.

Seasonal-to-interannual predictability is a function of local and

remote influences involving various ocean and land processes.

Enhanced predictability can result from persistence of specific

phenomena or slowly varying boundary conditions (soil moisture/

groundwater, snow/ice, vegetation/land cover, and ocean and land

surface temperatures) that persist over periods of weeks, months,

or even years. More accurate initial surface fields for prediction

models produced by recently developed land data assimilation

systems provide a basis for reducing prediction errors.

Understanding of the El Niño/La Niña cycle has provided some

predictive skill, particularly with respect to seasonal outlooks for

floods and droughts (see Figure 5-5); however, the memory effects of

land conditions on the atmosphere are not well enough understood.

Cloud and precipitation feedbacks and the interactions of the lower

boundary layer (lower 500 meters of the atmosphere) with land and

ocean surface conditions also are not well understood.

A critical prediction problem involves advance warning for major

flood and drought events.The ability to reliably assess whether

hydrologic extremes will increase as greenhouse gas concentrations

rise is also important. Extreme events arise from a combination of

large-scale circulation patterns that enhance atmospheric conditions

conducive to flood or drought, regional patterns and feedbacks that

accentuate the larger scale factors, and preconditioning of the system

to increase the impacts of the flood or the drought event.

Understanding the relative roles of remote and local factors in

initiating, maintaining, and terminating extreme events will require

the Water Cycle and the Climate Variability and Change research

elements to work collaboratively on this topic.

Illustrative Research Questions

• How predictable are water cycle variables at different temporal

and spatial scales over different regions of the Earth’s surface

(Chapter 4)?

58

Question 5.3:What are the key uncertainties in

seasonal-to-interannual predictions and long-term

projections of water cycle variables, and what

improvements are needed in global and regional

models to reduce these uncertainties?

Figure 5-5: Predictability of precipitation in summer (June, July, and August) on seasonal time scales, through analysis of an ensemble of multi-decadal

coupled land-atmospheric model simulations. In map (a), values close to 1 indicate areas where precipitation is strongly determined by sea surface

temperature (SST) and therefore is predictable when SST is predictable; values close to 0 indicate where foreknowledge of SST may not lead to useful

seasonal precipitation predictions. Map (b) shows the same information for SST and land surface moisture state. The addition of land surface information

appears to improve predictability. Source: R.D. Koster, M. Suarez, and M. Heiser, NASA. For more information, see Annex C.

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0 a) b)
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 5.Water Cycle

• For different model resolutions, how can key water cycle

processes be better simulated, in order to enhance the capability

of producing more accurate seasonal-to-interannual predictions

of water cycle variables (Chapters 4 and 8)?

• How can the representation of water cycle processes in climate

models be improved to reduce uncertainties in projections of

climate change (Chapter 4)? 

• What are the critical hydrological and atmospheric factors

present in major flood and drought events that can be isolated,

quantified, and incorporated into water cycle prediction

methodologies (Chapter 4)?

• What model improvements are needed to assess the changes in

seasonality, intensity, and variability of high-latitude freshwater

fluxes (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff) and stores (soil

moisture, snow/ice, permafrost) that may result from climate

change, specifically in large basins covering a range of climate

regions? 

• What processes and model resolutions are needed to improve

regional models used to downscale global predictions to local

and watershed scales? Are there other downscaling techniques

(e.g., statistical approaches) that can be equally effective

(Chapter 4)?

• How can the uncertainty in the prediction of water cycle variables

be characterized and communicated to water resource managers

(Chapter 11)?

Research Needs

Advances in prediction capabilities will depend on improvements in

model structure and initialization, data assimilation, and parameter

representations. Predictability studies will be required to determine

the regions, seasons, lead times, and processes most likely to provide

additional predictive skill. Better understanding and improved

model representations of less well-understood processes—such as

the seasonal and longer term interactions of the atmosphere with

vegetation, soils, oceans, and the cryosphere—are needed.The

modeling of regional feedbacks leading to extreme events also

requires a better understanding of land-atmosphere interactions,

while the modeling of antecedent conditions requires hydrologic

and biospheric models and monitoring programs that will account

for the effects of prolonged rainfall, or lack thereof, in a given

region.The goal of better predictions must be achieved by accurate

representations of precipitation processes in climate models.The

role of mountains in the annual water cycle also needs to be

better understood. Data sets are needed for the calibration and

validation of global coupled climate models and the development

of regional downscaling and statistical forecasting techniques.

In addition, model evaluation studies with enhanced data sets

are needed to improve models and to characterize and reduce

uncertainties.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Regional reanalysis providing a wide range of high-resolution,

daily water cycle analysis products for a 25-year period, for use

in analyzing features absent in global climate data assimilation

products [less than 2 years].

• Observational data sets to initialize and test boundary layer and

other components (including parameterizations) in mesoscale,

regional, and global models [2-4 years].

• Results from field and modeling experiments to study the role of

mountain environments on precipitation and runoff production

[2-4 years].

• New drought monitoring and early warning products based on

improved measurements of precipitation, soil moisture, and

runoff, and data assimilation techniques to inform drought

mitigation planning [2-4 years].This initiative will be

undertaken in collaboration with extreme event activities in

the Climate Variability and Change and Ecosystems research

elements.

• Metrics for representing the uncertainty in predictions of water

cycle variables and measurably improved forecast products for

water resource managers [2-4 years].

• In collaboration with the Climate Variability and Change

research element, the capability for long-range prediction of

drought and flood risks (seasonal-to-interannual time scales)

[beyond 4 years].The Water Cycle research element will focus

on the role of terrestrial feedbacks to extreme events while the

Climate Variability and Change research element will address

the seasonal and longer term changes in remote influences such

as sea surface temperatures.

• Downscaling techniques, such as improved regional climate

models, that bridge the disparate spatial and temporal scales

between global model outputs and atmospheric, land surface,

and river basin processes, for improved evaluation of potential

water resource impacts arising from climate variability and

change [beyond 4 years].

• New space-based systems for measuring global precipitation will

be developed and implemented to support the needs of the

Climate Variability and Change, Carbon Cycle, and Land-Use/

Land-Cover Change research elements [beyond 4 years].

State of Knowledge

Variability and changes in the water cycle have been shown to have

profound impacts on human societies (including human health) and

ecosystems, but many of the linkages between these changes and

their outcomes are not yet understood in the detail needed to

inform policy and management responses. In addition, the

strategies used for water management throughout the last century

to adapt to climate variability have had impacts on water availability

and water quality that must be identified and evaluated as part of

the process of separating climate change effects from other forms

of global change arising from factors such as industrialization and

population growth. Furthermore, the ability to simulate variations

in water availability and quality and their consequences for

agriculture, wetlands, energy production and distribution, urban

and industrial uses, and inland shipping, among others, should be

further developed and integrated into a common modeling

framework.

59

Question 5.4:What are the consequences over a

range of space and time scales of water cycle

variability and change for human societies and

ecosystems, and how do they interact with the Earth

system to affect sediment transport and nutrient and

biogeochemical cycles?
Chapter 5.Water Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

in land use and land cover will be needed to assess consequences for

water supply. It also will be essential to work closely with social and

ecosystem scientists to develop understanding of impacts of water

cycle variability, and social and biological responses and feedbacks

arising from that variability.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Reliable, commensurate data sets at the watershed scale that

scientists from various disciplines will use to examine critical

water-Earth interactions for improved integrated watershed

management [2-4 years].

• Development and application of better methods for monitoring

subsurface waters for inventorying current and future water

availability, including tracking aquifer storage and how it responds

to water withdrawals and climate change [beyond 4 years].

• Development of data sets and analyses of spatial and temporal

trends in stream flow and water quality (including sediments

and chemicals) for a range of watershed conditions including

watersheds with minimal effects from human activities,

agricultural watersheds, sensitive ecosystems, and large river

basins [2-4 years].These activities will address the needs of the

Ecosystems research element for baseline water cycle information.

• Evaluations of the effects of water cycle variability and change

on trends in water-quality conditions [2-4 years]. Information

from these evaluations is needed for studies by the Ecosystems

research element.

• Improved modeling and remote-sensing methods for scaling up

from individual pathways and mixing zones to the scale and

complexity of watershed systems [beyond 4 years].

• Models that partition precipitation among surface and subsurface

pathways, route flows, and quantify physical and chemical

interactions for evaluating climate and pollution impacts

[beyond 4 years].

• Contributions of data and advice to Human Contributions and

Response studies, including use of improved epidemiological

models, to examine the potential for major water-mediated

infectious diseases [2-4 years].

• Scientific capability to assess the climate-related consequences of

water use trends and water management practices [beyond 4

years].This capability is needed to evaluate the effects of water

management on the health of ecosystems, and together with the

Climate Variability and Change research element to examine the

combined effects and relative contributions of groundwater

pumping and climate change on sea-level rise and coastal flooding.

State of Knowledge

Results of recent research on the water cycle can contribute to the

capacities of decisionmakers in such sectors as water management,

agriculture, urban planning, disaster management, energy, and

transportation. Improved understanding of water cycle variability

and trends at regional and watershed scales appears to benefit

60

Many of the impacts of water variability arise because of its effects

on sediment loadings and the transport of nutrients and sediments.

As water cycles through the environment, it interacts strongly with

other biogeochemical cycles—notably carbon, nitrogen, and other

nutrients. Flowing water also erodes, transports, and deposits

sediments in rivers, lakes, and oceans, altering water quality and

affecting agricultural production and ecosystem functioning, among

other socially relevant impacts.Yet our ability to quantify the role of

flowing water as the primary agent for sediment transport that

reshapes the Earth’s surface, and for nutrient transport that feeds

riparian (relating to rivers) habitats and degrades water bodies, is

inadequate. Currently, we do not have the monitoring framework

needed to generate a database to support research on these processes.

The priority challenges are to quantify water flow and the various

transport rates, biochemical transformations, and constituent

concentrations and feedbacks whereby the water cycle alters media

and ecosystems.

Illustrative Research Questions

• How does the water cycle interact through physical, chemical,

biophysical, and microbiological processes with other Earth system

components at the watershed scale (generally 50 to 20,000 km2)

(Chapters 6, 7, and 8)?

• How do changes in climate, land cover, and non-point waste

discharges alter water availability, river flows, water quality, and

the transport of sediments, nutrients, and other chemicals, and

how do these changes affect human and ecosystem health

(Chapters 6 and 8)?

• How do surface and subsurface processes change the quantity

and quality of water available for human and environmental uses

(Chapters 6 and 8)?

• How might an intensification of the hydrological cycle enhance

soil erosion and result in soil degradation, especially losses in

soil carbon (Chapters 6 and 7)?

• How would ongoing systematic depletion of groundwater

resources be influenced by climate change and how is this

process affected by sea-level rise (Chapters 4, 6, and 8)?

• How might ongoing and potential future changes in hydrologic

regimes, such as earlier melting of the snowpack and lake and

river ice, affect the amount and timing of spring, summer, and

fall flows, surface water temperatures, and their impacts on

aquatic biota (Chapters 4 and 8)? 

• How do variability and change in the water cycle affect riparian and

estuarine environments in the United States (Chapters 6 and 8)?

• How might water cycle variability and change affect the spread

of vector-mediated disease (Chapters 4, 6, and 8)?

Research Needs

Overall, there is a basic need to develop an integrated research

vision (complete with hypotheses) for addressing multiple-process

(hydrological, physical, chemical, and ecological) interactions

between water and other Earth systems.Techniques that scale up

processes active at watershed and sub-watershed scales to larger

scales must be developed and tested. In addition, it is necessary to

refine geophysical methods and the use of tracers, including isotopes,

to determine subsurface paths, flow rates, and residence times, and

to track pollution plumes. Experimental watersheds are needed to

develop an understanding of these processes. Information on trends

Question 5.5: How can global water cycle

information be used to inform decision processes in

the context of changing water resource conditions

and policies?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 5.Water Cycle

decisionmakers dealing with climate-sensitive issues (see Figure 5-6).

Whether the water cycle is changing as a result of human activities

or natural low-frequency variation, human societies will have to

adapt, and focused scientific information must be provided to support

their choices.The growing economic and social costs of extreme

events indicate that there is need for improved responses to these

disruptions, whether or not their frequency and intensity are changing.

Currently, climate forecasts are often temporally or spatially too

coarse to be of use for many water-dependent decision processes. In

addition, factors such as regulatory inflexibility, institutional structures,

and time pressures make it difficult to change established management

and decision systems. Interactions between decisionmakers and

research scientists are needed to make mutual adjustments as

appropriate to match scientific information with decision processes.

Efforts to eliminate the barriers between researchers and research

users have been initiated and indicate that early collaboration and sideby-side demonstrations may be effective tools for speeding innovation.

Illustrative Research Questions

• How could climate variability and change potentially alter the

effectiveness of current and future water management practices

and their feedbacks on the climate (Chapter 9)?

• What are the consequences of demographic and land-use trends

on groundwater and surface water supplies domestically and

globally (Chapters 6 and 9)?

• What are effective means for transferring stochastic water cycle

research products (e.g., hydro-climatological predictions,

projections, and associated uncertainties) into the management,

planning, and design of water decision systems and infrastructure

(Chapters 9 and 11)?

• How can advance knowledge of water availability be used to

manage conflicting demands on domestic and transboundary

water resources for water consumption, ecological functions,

industrial uses, and transport (Chapter 9)?

• How can changes in the quality and quantity of water flowing

within riparian and coastal environments arising from land

management and policy decisions affect the provision of

ecosystem services (Chapters 8 and 9)?

• How have water consumption patterns and trends changed as a

result of major climatic events, technological innovation, and

economic conditions, and how are they likely to change as a result

of projected changes in the same factors (Chapters 9 and 11)?

• What are the trends in agricultural, industrial, municipal, and

instream water uses, and what implications do they have for

adaptation strategies (Chapters 6, 8, and 9)?

• What are the economic implications of strategies for the

application of improved capabilities to predict seasonal water

cycle variability and change (Chapters 9 and 11)?

Research Needs

For scientific information to have an impact, it will have to rely on

refined and extended research on the role, entry points, and types

of water cycle knowledge required for water management and policy

decisionmaking processes. In order to make rapid progress it will

be necessary to integrate data from a broad range of sources and

disciplines. A basic requirement for achieving this goal is the

61

Figure 5-6: Schematic of the

flow of data and information

between land surface models,

numerical forecasting products,

and decision support systems

used by water managers to

operate reservoirs and river

systems. Improved forecasts

and data assimilation systems

from water cycle research will

lead to more equitable and

sustainable management of

precious water resources.

Improved forecasts will lead to

enhanced river system

management, and increased

water storage and efficient

hydropower generation, while

preserving flood control space.

SATELLITE DATA MODEL FORCING FORECAST DATA

SATELLITE DATA MODEL FORCING FORECAST DATA

OBSERVATIONS SATELLITE DATA MODEL FORCING

Forecast Data

Satellite Data

Observations

Land Surface Model, Data Assimilation,

and Quality Control

Model Forcing

Land Data

Assimilation

Products

Weather and

Climate Model

Analysis and

Predictions

Land Data

Assimilation

System

Water

Manager

Decisions

Evaluation

and

Management

River System

Modeling Framework

Data

Management

Interface

Consumptive

Use

Prediction

Hydrologic

Database

Data

Storage

System

Hydrologic

Runoff Model

Outputs

Precipitation

Accumulation

Estimate

Decision Support System

River System

Modeling Framework

Data

Management

Interface

Consumptive

Use

Prediction

Hydrologic

Database

Data

Storage

System

Hydrologic

Runoff Model

Outputs

Precipitation

Accumulation

Estimate

Decision Support System
Chapter 5.Water Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

development of frameworks for integrating the natural and social

science information necessary for multiple-objective decisionmaking.

Inputs should include research in remote sensing, uncertainty of

predictions, data management for decision support, risk management,

economic impact assessments, and water and environmental law,

among many others.

An ability to assess the consequences of both historic and potential

future water development paths is needed for assessing trends and

variability in water resources. In addition, to determine patterns

and trends, it will be necessary to inventory existing data sources

and regional and sectoral studies, especially for data for which

regional, national, and global repositories are rare or non-existent

(e.g., water demand, diversion, use, and consumption). An

integrated data system for collection, storage, and retrieval of these

data would enhance national capacities for evaluating policy and

decision options.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

A number of the following milestones, products, and payoffs will be

developed in collaboration with the Decision Support Resources

element.

• An experimental surface and subsurface moisture monitoring

product for land resource management (e.g., fires or agriculture)

[less than 2 years].

• An experimental online decision support tool designed to provide

users with streamflow conditions and their accompanying

probabilities in the Pacific Northwest arising from near- and

far-term future climate predictions and projections [less than

2 years].

• Refinements of web-based tools that improve the communication

and usability of climate/water forecasts [less than 2 years].These

developments will contribute to Human Contributions and

Responses research element analyses of techniques for

communicating and disseminating climate forecasts.

• Transfer to operations of capabilities to produce improved

stochastic operational streamflow forecasts over a range of

spatial and temporal scales (days, weeks, months, and seasons)

to support water management decisions [2-4 years].

• Development of an ensemble forecast system to predict snowpack,

streamflow, and reservoir storage over the western United

States, based on information about global climate teleconnections,

for lead times ranging from several weeks to 1 year for

operational purposes, and from decades to a century for water

resource planning [2-4 years].

• Demonstration of system simulation and forecasts using

advanced watershed and river system management models and

decision support systems, to facilitate acceptance and utilization

of these advanced technologies for improved hydropower

production and river system management [2-4 years].

• Assessment reports on the status and trends of water flows,

water uses, and storage changes for use in analyses of water

availability [2-4 years].

• Integrated models of total water consumption for incorporation

into decision support tools that identify water-scarce regions

and efficient water use strategies [beyond 4 years].The Human

Contributions and Responses research element will supply inputs

on the effects of climate on human drivers of water demand.

As indicated throughout this chapter, the Water Cycle research

element will have strong ties to many of the other components of

the CCSP. It will also contribute to water initiatives that may be

forthcoming from the newly formed Subcommittee on Water

Availability and Quality (SWAQ) and the hydrologic aspects of the

U.S.Weather Research Program.

The Water Cycle research element has strong links to the World

Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and its Global Energy and

Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). In particular, the activities

outlined in this chapter will use data sets from the Coordinated

Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) in model development.The

Water Resources Applications Project (WRAP) will provide a

framework for studies to assess the benefits of improved hydrological

forecasts in decisionmaking.The Earth System Science Partnership’s

Global Water System Project will be a partner for studies of the

feedbacks of water management practices and infrastructure to

regional and global climate.Water cycle observational issues will

form the basis for activities under the water cycle theme of the

International Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) Partnership and

related observational activities, namely the Global Climate

Observing System (GCOS), the Global Ocean Observing System

(GOOS), and the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS).

Improved coordination of terrestrial observations is a critical need of

the Water Cycle research element that will be addressed at the

international level in the IGOS Water Cycle theme report.The

Water Cycle research element also has developed strong linkages

with the Hydrology and Water Resources Programme of the World

Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Hydrology

Programme of the United

Nations Educational,

Scientific and Cultural

Organization

(UNESCO), and the

joint UNESCO/WMO

Hydrology for

Environment, Life, and

Policy (HELP) initiative.

Water Cycle efforts

also will contribute to

observational programs

and research developed

through bilateral

treaties, particularly

with countries such as

Japan that have placed

a priority on water

cycle research, and

with Canada through

the International Joint

Commission, the Great

Lakes Commission,

and the Great Lakes

Environmental

Research Laboratory.

62

National and International Partnerships

Lead Authors

Rick Lawford, NOAA

Jared Entin, NASA

Susanna Eden, CCSPO

Wanda Ferrell, DOE

Harvey Hill, NOAA

Jin Huang, NOAA

L. Douglas James, NSF

William H. Kirby, USGS

David Matthews, DOI

Pamela L. Stephens, NSF

Sushel Unninayar, NASA

Contributors

Mike Dettinger, USGS

John Furlow, USEPA

David C. Goodrich, USDA

David Mathis USACE

Bryce Stokes, USDA

Mark A.Weltz, USDA

Jon Werner, USDA

Jordan West, USEPA

CHAPTER 5 AUTHORS
CHAPTER CONTENTS

Question 6.1:What tools or methods are needed

to better characterize historic and current land-use

and land-cover attributes and dynamics?

Question 6.2:What are the primary drivers of

land-use and land-cover change?

Question 6.3:What will land-use and land-cover

patterns and characteristics be 5 to 50 years into

the future?

Question 6.4: How do climate variability and

change affect land use and land cover, and what are

the potential feedbacks of changes in land use and

land cover to climate?

Question 6.5:What are the environmental, social,

economic, and human health consequences of

current and potential land-use and land-cover

change over the next 5 to 50 years? 

National and International Partnerships

CHAPTER

63

Land-use and land-cover are linked to climate and weather

in complex ways. Key links between changes in land cover

and climate include the exchange of greenhouse gases

(such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous

oxide) between the land surface and the atmosphere, the

radiation (both solar and longwave) balance of the land

surface, the exchange of sensible heat between the land

surface and the atmosphere, and the roughness of the land

surface and its uptake of momentum from the atmosphere.

Because of these strong links between land cover and

climate, changes in land use and land cover can be

important contributors to climate change and variability.

Moreover, reconstructions of past land-cover changes and

projections of possible future land-cover changes are

needed to understand past climate changes and to project

possible future climate changes; land-cover characteristics

are important inputs to climate models. In addition,

changes in land use and land cover, especially when

coupled with climate variability and change, are likely to

affect ecosystems and the many important goods and

services that they provide to society.The National

Research Council recently identified land-use dynamics as

one of the grand challenges for environmental research

(NRC, 2001b).

Determining the effects of land-use and land-cover change on the

Earth system depends on an understanding of past land-use practices,

current land-use and land-cover patterns, and projections of future

land use and cover, as affected by human institutions, population

size and distribution, economic development, technology, and other

factors.The combination of climate and land-use change may have

profound effects on the habitability of Earth in more significant ways

than either acting alone.While land-use change is often a driver of

environmental and climatic changes, a changing climate can in turn

affect land use and land cover. Climate variability alters land-use

practices differently in different parts of the world, highlighting

differences in regional and national vulnerability and resilience.

The interaction between land use and climate variability and change

is poorly understood and will require the development of new

models linking the geophysics of climate with the socioeconomic

drivers of land use. Providing a scientific understanding of the process

of land-use change, the impacts of different land-use decisions, and

the ways that decisions are affected by a changing climate and

increasing climate variability are priority areas for research.

In addition to being a driver of Earth system processes affecting the

climate, carbon cycle, and ecosystems, land-use and land-cover

change is a global change in its own right, requiring its own research

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change 6
Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

foundation. Key issues to be addressed by this research element

include the spatial and temporal dynamics of land-use change, the

role of fragmentation and degradation, the role of multiple drivers,

the role of institutions, and the interactions among drivers and

types of land-use change.

This research element provides the scientific underpinning for landuse decisionmaking and projections of future land use, and has

substantial benefits beyond climate change assessment and mitigation

by supporting a wide array of issues important to users of this

information.To meet multiple objectives, the land-use and land-cover

change research element will address two overarching questions:

• What processes determine the temporal and spatial distributions

of land cover and land use at local, regional, and global scales,

and how and how well can land use and land cover be projected

over time scales of 5-50 years?

• How may changes in land use, management, and cover affect

local, regional, and global environmental and socioeconomic

conditions, including economic welfare and human health, taking

into consideration socioeconomic factors and potential

technological change?

To address these overarching questions, a focused, integrated

research agenda is required that includes process studies, systematic

observations, modeling and prediction, retrospective studies,

research on impacts, and regional science networks and assessments.

In addition, research collaboration with other program elements

will be necessary to gain detailed understanding of the direct impacts

of land-use and land-cover change on climate, as well as the combined

effects of land use and climate change on ecosystems, water, and

carbon cycles. Answers to the overarching questions will require

research focused on the five specific questions posed in this chapter.

State of Knowledge

During the previous decade, significant progress was made in

planning and launching satellites with instruments suited for Earth

observation. In addition, a number of national- to global-scale

experimental land-cover databases were developed that led to

increased use of land cover in climate and carbon cycle models.

Methodological advancements were also made. As a result, there is

an improved capability for and strong reliance on remote-sensing

and land-cover databases for multi-scale environmental studies.The

research and development associated with this question involves the

continuation of, and improvements in, data collection systems and

data products.This will provide new information leading to regular

updates of land-cover databases at scales relevant for issues ranging

from local resource management to global-scale analyses.

While remote sensing provides quick and comparatively inexpensive

information about land-cover changes over large areas, land-cover

database improvements will require integration of data from

ground-based networks (see Figure 6-2).These networks offer a

wealth of historical data (often with data records extending back

50-100 years), and can provide detailed site information (e.g., primary

production, species composition, habitat quality, wildlife population

statistics, soil type, tillage and crop rotation history, and land-use

classifications). Integrating ground-based and remote-sensing data

collection systems provides an opportunity to vastly improve the

speed and quality of land-use and land-cover data for use in applied

research. Much of our understanding of land-use and land-cover

change has built up from individual case studies, using both remote

sensing and ground-based data, and we will continue to rely on case

studies as a means to gain required knowledge.

Illustrative Research Questions 

• What improvements need to be made to current observing

systems and what programs need to be put in place to provide

the necessary long-term data and information to support the

study of land-use and land-cover change at the global, regional,

and national scales? 

• What are the methodological advances needed to improve landuse and land-cover change analyses, including strategies for

integrating ground-based data, socioeconomic statistics (e.g.,

census information), and remotely sensed measurements?

• What are the historical and current patterns and attributes of

land use and land cover at national to global scales that affect the

carbon cycle, atmospheric processes, and ecosystem structure

and function?

• What are the national and global rates, patterns, and characteristics

of contemporary land-use and land-cover change?

• Where are the current areas of rapid land-use and land-cover

change at national and global scales?

Research Needs

Evolving public and private land management questions call for

new data and information and improved scientific bases for

decisionmaking.They also require long-term continuity in data

collection, and the acquisition of data at the global scale.

Coordination and prioritization of the specific land-use and landcover change data requirements with the Observing and Monitoring

research element is imperative. Methods and procedures now exist

64

Figure 6-1: Land use: strip cropping and woodlots in Leelanau County,

Michigan. Source: USDA NRCS (photo by Lynn Betts, 2001).

Question 6.1:What tools or methods are needed to

better characterize historic and current land use and

land cover attributes and dynamics?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

to make routine global observations of land cover, but there is

currently no operational program.With the current suite of satellite

sensing systems and archived data sets available to the research

community, studies at the large spatial scales needed to depict landcover and management changes can begin.

While considerable progress has been made in mapping land-cover

characteristics, the ability to accurately map the wide range of

landscape attributes, including land use and biomass, will require a

considerable research effort. Coordination of existing in situ data

collection efforts, and the retrieval, analysis, and integration of

historical data are needed to extend the usefulness of existing data

and to enrich and standardize data attributes in future data collection

and use. In addition, improvements in remotely sensed data quality

and in automated algorithms for detection of local land-cover

changes and their characteristics are needed. Data integration will

be particularly important so that in situ, remotely sensed, and other

forms of data can be merged and used to derive the needed landuse and land-cover information. As scientific demands and needs for

land-use and land-cover information change, parallel innovation in

the resulting data products will be essential.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs 

• National land-cover database for the United States that includes

attributes of land cover and vegetation canopy characteristics [less

than 2 years].This product is a required model input needed by the

Carbon Cycle,Water Cycle, and Ecosystems research elements.

• Continued acquisition of global calibrated coarse-, moderate-,

and high-resolution remotely sensed data [ongoing].

• Global moderate-resolution land-cover database with attributes

required for parameterization of climate, carbon cycle, and

ecosystem models [less than 2 years]. Parameter specifications

must be coordinated with the Climate Variability and Change

research element.

• Global maps of areas of rapid land-use and land-cover change

and location and extent of fires [less than 2 years].

• Quantification of rates of regional, national, and global land-use

and land-cover change [regional, less than 2 years; national, 2-4

years; global, beyond 4 years].This product is a required model

input needed by the Carbon Cycle,Water Cycle, and

Ecosystems research elements.

• Integrated land-use and land-cover change detection strategies

and operational prototypes of detection systems that enable

accurate and cost-effective detection of local to global changes

[less than 2 years].

• Global high-resolution satellite remotely sensed data and landcover databases with attributes required for national to global

scale applications [beyond 4 years].

• Global and national land-use history maps spanning the period

from the industrial revolution to the present (300 years).This

product is required by the Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems

research elements [beyond 4 years].

• Operational global monitoring of land-use and land-cover

conditions [beyond 4 years].This product will be used by several

other research elements including Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems,

and Climate Variability and Change.

• Analysis of the global occurrence, extent, and impact of major

disturbances (e.g., fire, insects, drought, and flooding) on land

use and land cover [beyond 4 years]. Input on the frequency of

drought and flooding will be sought from the Climate Variability

and Change research element.

State of Knowledge

The ability to forecast land-use and land-cover change and, ultimately,

to predict the consequences of change, will depend on our ability to

understand the past, current, and future drivers of land-use and

land-cover change.These factors as well as other emerging social and

political factors may have significant effects on future land use and

cover. Patterns of land use, land-cover change, and land management

are shaped by the interaction of economic, environmental, social,

political, and technological forces on local to global scales (see, for

example, Figure 6-3).

65

Figure 6-2: Forest cover increase and abandonment of marginal agricultural

lands in Grand Traverse County, Michigan. The left image illustrates landuse change by parcel interpreted from aerial photographs. Green colors

are forest, beige/yellow agriculture, and pink residential development. The

right image is forest cover from Landsat satellite images. Green is forest

and light yellow is not forest. Source: School of Natural Resources and

Environment, University of Michigan. For more information, see Annex C.

Question 6.2:What are the primary drivers of

land-use and land-cover change?
Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

An improved understanding of historical land-use and land-cover

patterns provides a means to evaluate complex causes and responses

in order to better project future trends of human activities and

land-use and land-cover change.We must understand the primary

modern and future drivers of land use and their interrelationship

with land management decisions and resource policies to develop

projections of future land-use and management decision outcomes

under a range of economic, environmental, and social scenarios.

This ability will allow better projections and hopefully minimize

negative impacts, especially as related to climate change.This type

of analysis will require the integration of various disciplines from

the physical and social sciences.

Illustrative Research Questions

• What are the primary historic and contemporary natural and

human drivers of land-use and land-cover change and what will

they be in the future? 

• What has been the historical relationship between land use and

land management systems and how will the relationship change

through the next few decades?

• What are the most significant drivers of land-use and land-cover

change? 

• How have and will the driving forces of change affect(ed) land

use and cover at different scales (i.e., local, regional, and global)

and where are there opportunities for managing land-use change

to minimize negative impacts and maximize positive outcomes?

• How, and to what extent, do extreme events (e.g., natural

disasters, public health emergencies, and war) affect land-use

and land-cover change and vice versa?

• How will environmental, institutional, political, technological,

demographic, and economic processes determine the temporal

and spatial distribution of land use and land cover over the next

few decades?

Research Needs

An innovative approach is needed to quantify, understand, model, and

project natural and human drivers of land-use and land-cover change.

Research is needed to understand and project the interactions of

economic, social, and environmental choices on land use and

management policies and decisions. New techniques and tools that

integrate understanding of human behavior, opportunities,

consequences, and alternatives are needed for improved

decisionmaking and policymaking.There must be close collaboration

with the Human Contributions and Responses research element to

understand the social and economic drivers that affect human choices.

Improvements are needed in process models of land-use and landcover change dynamics in space and time, combining field-level case

66

45 - Piedmont

62 - N.C. Apps.

63 - Coastal Plains

64 - N. Piedmont

65 - S.E. Plains

66 - Blue Ridge

67 - Ridge & Valley

68 - S.W. Apps.

69 - Central Apps.

71 - Interior Plateau

84 - Pine Barrens

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

1972-1980

1980-19861986-19921992-2000

Average Area

Converted

per Interval (%)

02468

Other To Developed

Clear-Cut/

Regeneration

To Mining

To Forest

To Grass/Shrub

To Agriculture

Figure 6-3: Land-cover

change in eastern U.S.

ecosystems, 1973-2000. An

analysis of land-use and landcover change in the eastern

United States provides

evidence of distinctive regional

variation in the rates and

characteristics of changes. The

color of each ecoregion

indicates the rate of change,

while the pie charts indicate

the type of change. In some

areas, rapid, cyclic harvesting

and replanting of forests was

the main cause of change,

while urbanization dominated

in other areas. Source: USGS

EROS Data Center. For more

information, see Annex C.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

studies for analysis of processes and management systems, statistical

studies for large regions, and empirical analyses using remote sensing

at local scales.This process-level understanding of land-use and

land-cover dynamics and interactions with socioeconomic and

biophysical factors will aid the analysis of land-use and land-cover

change across scales.Work is needed to understand the interactions

between agents or causes of land-use change and climate change and

variability.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs 

• Summary of the historical and contemporary regional driving

forces of land-use and land-cover change [United States, less

than 2 years; global, beyond 4 years].This product is needed by

the Ecosystems research element.

• Understand how primary drivers of land use and land management

decisions are likely to change over the next few decades [United

States, 2-4 years; global beyond 4 years].

• Quantify and project possible drivers of land-use change for a

range of economic, environmental, and social values [beyond 4

years].This product is needed by the Ecosystems and Carbon

Cycle research elements.

State of Knowledge

To understand the historical, contemporary, and future linkages

between land-use and land-cover change and its resulting effects on

biogeochemical cycles, climate, ecosystem health, and other systems,

it will be necessary to make significant advances in documenting the

rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change. Our current

understanding of historic land-use and land-cover change is weak

due to the anecdotal or very local nature of past research in this

area. Future understanding of land-use and land-cover changes will

be greatly improved through new systematic methods and study

designs for land-use change research.To understand the forces of

change that operate at different scales, it will be necessary to conduct

studies that explicitly reveal the local and regional variations in landuse and land-cover changes.With this, the historical and contemporary

data needed to develop models that project land use and land cover

for specific intervals into the future will be produced.

Illustrative Research Questions 

• What are the major feedbacks and interactions between climatic,

socioeconomic, and ecological influences on changes in land use

and land management? 

• What spatial and temporal level of information and modeling

are needed to project land use and land management and its

impacts on the Earth system at regional, national, and global

scales?

• Given specific climate, demographic, and socioeconomic

projections, what is the current level of skill and what are the

key sources of uncertainty and major sensitivities in projecting

characteristics of land-use and land-cover change 5 to 50 years

into the future?

Research Needs

A new suite of models that combine climatic, socioeconomic, and

ecological data to model projected changes at scales that are relevant

67

Question 6.3:What will land-use and land-cover

patterns and characteristics be 5 to 50 years into the

future?

1994 Land Use Projected Land Use

Commercial/Industrial

High-Density Residential

Medium-Density Residential

Low-Density Residential

Undeveloped

Protected

Highway

Major Road

Central Maryland Region

(shaded area)

Figure 6-4: The map on the

left shows actual land use in

the seven-county area of

central Maryland in 1994,

while the map on the right is

the predicted distribution of

land-use types based on a

‘polycentric’ city model. There

is remarkable similarity

between the two maps in

commercial, high, and medium

densities, but disagreement

in the low-density residential

category. Models with

improved projections of this

fragmented, low-density

residential development—

which consumes a

disproportionate amount of

open space and causes high

public service costs—will

better support decisionmaking

regarding this type of

development. Source: Nancy

Bockstael, University of

Maryland. For more

information, see Annex C
Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

to resource management and to those relevant for global assessments

is needed.This need for predictive models calls for a better

understanding of the drivers of land-use change, characterization/

parameterization of land-use elements, and credible predictions of

land cover and land use at annual to decadal time scales.

Partnerships are needed with state and regional assessment and

research efforts, to ensure comparability between national/global

and state/regional models. Integration among the Carbon Cycle,

Ecosystems, and Human Contributions and Responses research

elements will be needed to develop and test models for generating

scenarios of land-use and land-cover change, and for making

projections of change that take into account the various influences

of ecosystem functioning, carbon, water, and energy cycling as well

as human-managed systems. Model validation will be a particularly

challenging element of this research area. Simulation of past

conditions will be a necessary strategy for testing the performance

of models, placing more significance on the need to understand

land-use and land-cover change in both historical and contemporary

contexts.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs 

• Single-sector (e.g., urban, suburban, agriculture, forest, etc.)

change models [prototypes for selected sectors, less than 2

years; operational models for selected sectors, 2-4 years;

operational models for all sectors, beyond 4 years].

• Identification and integration of components of land-use and

land-cover change models [regional, less than 2 years; national,

2-4 years; global beyond 4 years].

• Development of regional, national, and global land-use and

land-cover change projection models, incorporating advances in

understanding of drivers [regional, less than 2 years; national,

2-4 years; global beyond 4 years].This product will be used by

the Climate Variability and Change,Water Cycle, Carbon Cycle,

Ecosystems, and Human Contributions and Responses research

elements.

State of Knowledge

Land-use and land-cover change is linked in complex and interactive

ways to global climate change, and the feedback between the two

exists at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Changes in greenhouse

gas emissions, albedo, and surface roughness are the primary

mechanisms by which land-use and land-cover change affect climate.

Climate variability and change, in turn, can affect the land cover of

a given area and the ways in which land is used. Some of the impacts

of these feedbacks are local while others have global ramifications.

For example, trace gas emissions and removals by sinks depend

strongly on land cover and land-use practices (see, for example,

Figure 6-5), while the deposition of atmospheric constituents affects

the potential rate and magnitude of terrestrial sinks.

Illustrative Research Questions 

• What are the critical land uses and landscape variables that affect

climate?

• What can we learn about the relationship between climate and

land cover from studies of the past?

• How do climate variability and extreme events affect land use

and land cover?

• How will climate and land use/cover influence each other in the

future?

Research Needs

Simulation of climate-land use/cover feedbacks will require

advancement of current understanding of multiple stress processes

68

Question 6.4: How do climate variability and

change affect land use and land cover, and what are

the potential feedbacks of changes in land use and

land cover to climate?

Forested Area by Age Category Simulated Spatial Variation

gC m2 yr-1

-216 - -20

-19.99 - -10

-9.99 - 0

0.01 - 4

4.01 - 5

5.01 - 8

8.01 - 11

11.01 - 166

No Data

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 20 40 60 80 100 140 180 300+

Stand Age

Percent of Total Area

Estimate from Forest Inventory Data

55% Fire Return Interval

Figure 6-5: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, climatic variation, and fire disturbance play substantial roles in the historical carbon dynamics of Alaska.

Analyses of stand-age distribution in Alaska indicate that fire has likely become less frequent compared to the first half of the 20th century. Application of the

Terrestrial Ecosystem Model indicates that regrowth under a less frequent fire regime leads to substantial carbon storage in the state between 1980 and 1989.

Source: David McGuire and Dave Verbyla, University of Alaska, Fairbanks. For more information, see Annex C.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

at local to global scales.We need to identify past changes in land use

and land cover that are attributable to changes in climate, in order

to project future changes in land use and land cover that could

result from changes in climate.Validation of the interacting climateland use effects for specific regions of the globe will be particularly

challenging. Inputs will be needed from the Climate Variability and

Change,Water Cycle, and Carbon Cycle research elements.

International cooperation will be needed to optimize the currently

existing and emerging observational networks.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs 

• Analysis of existing databases and theories about climate-related

processes that affect land-use change, including uncertainty

analysis [less than 2 years].

• Evaluation of how the type and distribution of land cover affects

regional weather and climate patterns [less than 2 years].

Collaborative research with the Climate Variability and Change

research element will be necessary.

• Sensitivity studies addressing how land-use and land-cover related

changes in surface albedo, greenhouse gas fluxes, and particulates

affect climate (such data will be given to the Climate Variability

and Change research element) [2-4 years].This investigation will

involve collaboration with the Carbon Cycle and Climate

Variability and Change research elements.

• Report on the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on

local carbon dynamics.The report will discuss implications for

sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon and the overall carbon

budget and will be developed in collaboration with the Carbon

Cycle and Climate Variability and Change research elements

[2-4 years].

• Reports on the effects of land use and land cover on mitigation

and management of greenhouse gases [beyond 4 years]. Data on

greenhouse gas concentrations and history will be needed from

the Carbon Cycle research element.

• Report on past trends in land cover or land use attributable to

changes in climate (e.g., changes in forest type, changes in specific

agricultural crops, or changes in the presence or absence of

agriculture) [beyond 4 years]. Input will be needed from the

Climate Variability and Change research element.

• Report on projected trends in land cover or land uses that are

attributable to changes in climate (e.g., changes in forest type,

changes in specific agricultural crops, or changes in the presence

or absence of agriculture) [beyond 4 years].

• National and global models with a coupled climate-land use system

[beyond 4 years].This will be a collaborative task conducted

with the Climate Variability and Change research element.

State of Knowledge

There is clear evidence that changing land use and land cover has

significant impacts on local environmental conditions and economic

and social welfare. For example, the water cycle depends heavily on

vegetation, surface characteristics, soil properties, and water

resources development by humans (e.g., dam construction, irrigation,

channeling, and drainage of wetlands) which in turn affects water

availability and quality. Land-use and land-cover change, climate

variability and change, soil degradation, and other environmental

changes all interact to affect natural resources through their effects on

ecosystem structure and functioning. In turn, ecological systems may

respond unexpectedly when exposed to two or more perturbations.

The following research questions address the effects of changes in

land use and land cover on other research elements (i.e., Ecosystems,

Water Cycle, Carbon Cycle, Human Contributions and Responses).

Illustrative Research Questions 

• How will different scenarios of land-use change stress or

enhance the productivity of our natural resource base and the

industries that depend on it, including agriculture and forestry? 

• How will land-use and land-cover changes affect the form and

functioning of ecosystems, including the ability to provide

essential goods and services and levels of ecosystem biodiversity,

and what are the ecological, economic, public health, and social

benefits and costs of the changes?

• What are the impacts of future land-use and land-cover change

on water quality and quantity (research will be undertaken with

the Water Cycle research element)?

• Using focused case studies, how can landholders, land managers,

and decisionmakers formulate land use and land management

decisions and practices at various scales in order to mitigate

negative impacts of, and take advantage of any new opportunities

due to, climate change?

Research Needs

The other Climate Change Science Program research elements

provide complementary information about the environmental and

biophysical forces that influence potential land uses (e.g., atmospheric

chemistry and processes, climate variability and change, water

resources, nutrient flows, and ecological processes) and the

anthropogenic pressures that will give rise to various land uses and

processes (e.g., the Human Contributions and Responses research

element). Development of coupled climate-land use/cover models

that incorporate socioeconomic factors and ecosystem function

should be accelerated.The challenge will be to use contemporary

impacts of land-use and land-cover change to calibrate impacts on

ecosystem goods and services; biogeochemical, water, and energy

cycles; and climate processes. Research will require multidisciplinary

cooperation to develop land-use and land-cover projections that

address the necessary spatial and temporal scales, and include the

necessary physical, biological, and social factors of interest, to ensure

that projections of land use and land cover can be incorporated into

models of impacts.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs 

• Report on the social, economic, and ecological impacts of

urbanization on other land uses [less than 2 years].This product

will be used by the Ecosystems and Human Contributions and

Responses research elements.

• Report on the social, economic, and ecological impacts of different

scenarios of land-use change on agriculture, grazing, and

69

Question 6.5:What are the environmental, social,

economic, and human health consequences of current

and potential land-use and land-cover change over

the next 5 to 50 years?
Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

forestry [2-4 years].This product will be used by the Ecosystems

and Human Contributions and Responses research elements.

• Assessment of the impacts of different scenarios of urban and

agricultural expansion on natural (terrestrial and aquatic) systems

[2-4 years].This product will be used by the Ecosystems

research element.

• Reports on the relationship between land-use and land-cover

change and human health [2-4 years].This product will be used

by the Human Contributions and Responses research element.

• Identification of the regions in the United States where land use

and climate change may have the most significant implications

for land management [2-4 years].This product will be used by

the Human Contributions and Responses research element.

• Report on the regional and national impacts of different scenarios

of land use and land cover on water quality and quantity,

conducted with the Water Cycle research element [regional,

2-4 years; national, beyond 4 years].

• Report on land management options associated with different

climate change scenarios [beyond 4 years].This product will be

used by the Human Contributions and Responses research

element.

Nationally, several programs have identified land-use and land-cover

change as part of their individual agency research agendas (e.g., the

National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Geological

Survey, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture) and

have played an active role in developing this research element. It will

be important as the program proceeds to engage multiple agencies

and organizations working in this and related fields (e.g., the

National Institutes of Health, the Department of Transportation, the

Bureau of Land Management, and the U.S. Agency for International

Development). In the next decade of global change research, it will

be particularly important to include stakeholders (e.g., the National

Governors Association, non-governmental organizations, and state

and local land managers) in guiding this research element.

Global change research is strengthened through international

partnerships. In the next 10 years, the establishment of international

land-use and land-cover science programs will augment ongoing

efforts such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

to help bridge the gap between climate change researchers, land

managers, and decisionmakers. For example, the Global

Observation of Forest Cover and Global Observations of Land

Cover Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD) is a new program and part of the

Integrated Global Observing System (IGOS) for coordinating global

land observations. GOFC-GOLD is implemented through regional

networks of data providers and users to address a combination of

global change and natural resource management questions, and

engages local scientists with local and regional expertise and

knowledge. Regional observational and monitoring networks and

associated case studies are key to understanding phenomena at fine

scales, and provide a test bed for models and a mechanism for

comparative analysis.

Another example is the United Nations Land Cover Network—an

emerging cooperative activity of the Food and Agriculture

Organization (FAO) and the United Nations Environment

Programme (UNEP) to develop monitoring and measurement of

land-cover change in support of their global environmental outlooks

and assessments (e.g., the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment). In

addition to these activities, development agencies are attempting to

address questions concerning the societal impacts of global change

through new programs such as the U.S. Agency for International

Development’s Geographic Information and Sustainable

Development program. Such programs can help in strengthening

the scientific underpinning for the decisionmaking process.

To facilitate the U.S. science community achieving broad science

and societal objectives in global land-use and land-cover research,

international partnerships are being formed for regional studies of

global importance. For example, during the last 10 years, studies of

the Amazon have been conducted in the framework of the LargeScale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA), a

cooperative international project led by Brazil. Created through an

international cooperative agreement, LBA has important institutional

relations, including ties with over 40 Brazilian institutions, 25

institutions from various Amazonian countries, as well as institutions

from the United States and eight European nations.The LBA project

is expected to continue for at least 3 years.

During the next 3-5 years, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science

Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) will produce a large-scale

interdisciplinary program of research aimed at developing a better

understanding of the interactions between ecosystems, the

atmosphere, and human dynamics in northern Eurasia.This region,

representing a quarter of the world’s land masses, will be studied by

U.S. scientists in partnership with scientists from northern Eurasia

to enhance scientific knowledge and develop predictive capabilities

to support informed decisionmaking with respect to land-use and

land-cover changes.

70

Lead Authors

Tom Loveland, USGS

Garik Gutman, NASA

Marilyn Buford, USDA

Keya Chatterjee, NASA

Chris Justice, University of Maryland

Catriona Rogers, USEPA

Bryce Stokes, USDA

Julie Thomas, NPS

Contributors

Ken Andrasko, USEPA

Richard Aspinall, NSF

Virgil C. Baldwin, USDA

Matt Fladeland, NASA

Jeff Goebel, USDA

Mike Jawson, USDA

CHAPTER 6 AUTHORS

National and International Partnerships
CHAPTER CONTENTS

Question 7.1:What are the magnitudes and

distributions of North American carbon sources

and sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales, and

what are the processes controlling their dynamics?

Question 7.2:What are the magnitudes and

distributions of ocean carbon sources and sinks on

seasonal to centennial time scales, and what are the

processes controlling their dynamics?

Question 7.3:What are the effects on carbon

sources and sinks of past, present, and future landuse change and resource management practices at

local, regional, and global scales?

Question 7.4: How do global terrestrial, oceanic,

and atmospheric carbon sources and sinks change

on seasonal to centennial time scales, and how can

this knowledge be integrated to quantify and

explain annual global carbon budgets? 

Question 7.5:What will be the future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,

methane, and other carbon-containing greenhouse gases, and how will terrestrial and marine

carbon sources and sinks change in the future?

Question 7.6: How will the Earth system, and its different components, respond to various

options for managing carbon in the environment, and what scientific information is needed

for evaluating these options?

National and International Partnerships

CHAPTER

71

Carbon is important as the basis for the food and fiber that

sustain and shelter human populations, as the primary

energy source that fuels economies, and as a major

contributor to the planetary greenhouse effect and potential

climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest single

forcing agent of climate change, and methane (CH4) is also

a significant contributor. Atmospheric concentrations of

CO2 and CH4 have been increasing for about 2 centuries

as a result of human activities and are now higher than

they have been for over 400,000 years. Since 1750, CO2

concentrations in the atmosphere have increased by 30%

and CH4 concentrations in the atmosphere have increased

by 150%. Approximately three-quarters of present-day

anthropogenic CO2 emissions are due to fossil-fuel

combustion (plus a small amount from cement production);

land-use change accounts for the rest.The strengths of

CH4 emission sources are uncertain due to the high variability in

space and time of biospheric sources (IPCC, 2001a). Future

atmospheric concentrations of these greenhouse gases will depend

on trends and variability in natural and human-caused emissions and

the capacity of terrestrial and marine sinks to absorb and retain

carbon.The global carbon cycle is depicted in Figure 7-1.

Decisionmakers searching for options to stabilize or mitigate

concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are faced

with two broad approaches for controlling atmospheric carbon

concentrations: (1) reduction of carbon emissions at their source,

such as through reducing fossil fuel use and cement production or

changing land use and management (e.g., reducing deforestation);

and/or (2) enhanced sequestration of carbon,either through

enhancement of biospheric carbon storage or through engineering

solutions to capture carbon and store it in repositories such as the

Carbon Cycle 7 
Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

deep ocean or geologic formations. Enhancing carbon sequestration

is of current interest as a near-term policy option to slow the rise in

atmospheric CO2 and provide more time to develop a wider range

of viable mitigation and adaptation options. However, uncertainties

remain about how much additional carbon storage can be achieved,

the efficacy and longevity of carbon sequestration approaches,

whether they will lead to unintended environmental consequences,

and just how vulnerable or resilient the global carbon cycle is to

such manipulations.

Successful carbon management strategies will require solid scientific

information about the basic processes of the carbon cycle and an

understanding of its long-term interactions with other components

of the Earth system such as climate and the water and nitrogen

cycles. Such strategies also will require an ability to account for all

carbon stocks, fluxes, and changes and to distinguish the effects of

human actions from those of natural system variability (see Figure

7-2). Because CO2 is an essential ingredient for plant growth, it will

be essential to address the direct effects of increasing atmospheric

concentrations of CO2 on terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity.

Breakthrough advances in techniques to observe and model the

atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components of the carbon cycle

have readied the scientific community for a concerted research effort

to identify, characterize, quantify, and project the major regional carbon

sources and sinks—with North America as a near-term priority.

The overall goal for Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

carbon cycle research is to provide critical scientific information on

the fate of carbon in the environment and how cycling of carbon

might change in the future, including the role of and implications

for societal actions. In this decade, research on the global carbon

cycle will focus on two overarching questions:

• How large and variable are the dynamic reservoirs and fluxes of

carbon within the Earth system, and how might carbon cycling

change and be managed in future years, decades, and centuries?

• What are our options for managing carbon sources and sinks to

achieve an appropriate balance of risk, cost, and benefit to society? 

A well-coordinated, multidisciplinary research strategy, bringing

together a broad range of needed infrastructure, resources, and

expertise from the public and private sectors, will be essential to

answer these questions. A continuing dialogue with stakeholders,

including resource managers, policymakers, and other decisionmakers,

must be established and maintained to ensure that desired information

is provided in a useful form (NRC, 1999c).

Specific research questions that will be addressed in support of the

two overarching questions are covered in the following sections.

These six carbon cycle questions focus on research issues of high

priority and potential payoff for the next 10 years.They derive from

the program goals recommended by the research community in A

U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (CCWG, 1999). Carbon cycling is an

integrated Earth system process and no one of these questions can

be addressed in isolation from the others—or without contributions

from and interactions with the other research elements of the

CCSP, the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP), and the

international scientific community. Many of the research activities,

research needs, and milestones, products, and payoffs identified

under each question will be relevant to more than one question,

indicating a high degree of complementarity across questions.

72

Atmosphere

778

Fossil Fuels &

Cement

Production

Surface Ocean

1,020

Marine Biota

3

Dissolved Organic

Carbon

< 700

Surface Sediment

150

Intermediate

& Deep Ocean

38,100

2

0.2

2

40

8 91.6

50 100

92

90.3 6.3 ± 0.4

Rivers

Vegetation 610

Soils & Detritus 1,580

2,190

Weathering

Erosion

Net Terrestrial Uptake 1.4

Land-Use Change 0.7-1.6

Land Sink 2-4

0.8

Figure 7-1: The global carbon

cycle. Carbon is exchanged

among the atmosphere,

oceans, and land. This cycling

of carbon is fundamental to

regulating Earth’s climate. In

this static figure, the

components are simplified

and average values are

presented. Storages [in

petagrams carbon (PgC)] and

fluxes (in PgC yr-1) of carbon

for the major components of

the Earth’s carbon cycle are

estimated for the 1990s.

For more information, see

Annex C.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle

State of Knowledge

There is compelling evidence of a current Northern Hemisphere

extra-tropical terrestrial sink of 0.6-2.3 PgC yr-1 (IPCC, 2001a).

Recent work suggests that this sink is a result of land-use change,

including recovery of forest cleared for agriculture in the last century,

and land management practices, such as fire suppression and reduced

tillage of agricultural lands. Other studies suggest that elevated

atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, changes in

growing season duration, and changes in regional rainfall patterns

also play a role. Atmospheric studies indicate that the net terrestrial

sink varies significantly from year to year (see Figure 7-3).

Current estimates of regional distributions of carbon sources and

sinks derived from atmospheric and oceanic data differ from forest

inventory and terrestrial ecosystem model estimates, but there is

growing confidence that these differences can be reconciled (IPCC,

2000a, 2001a).The Carbon Cycle science program will coordinate

the observational, experimental, analytical, and data management

activities needed to reconcile the discrepancies, to reduce the

uncertainties, and to produce a consistent result for North America

through the North American Carbon Program (NACP, 2002).When

integrated with results from corresponding international research

projects in Europe and Asia (Global Carbon Project, 2003), the

results of the NACP will contribute to locating and accurately

quantifying the Northern Hemisphere carbon sink.

Illustrative Research Questions

• What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent

ocean basins, and how is that balance changing over time? How

large and variable are the sources and sinks, and what are the

geographic patterns of carbon fluxes?

• What are the most important mechanisms, both natural and

human-induced, that control North American carbon sources

and sinks, and how will they change in the future?

• How much do North America and adjacent ocean basins

contribute to the Northern Hemisphere carbon sink?

73

Figure 7-2: Average annual global budget of CO2 and uncertainties for 1989 to 1998 expressed in PgC yr-1. Error bounds correspond to a 90% confidence

interval. The numbers reported here are from Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry, a special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC, 2000a). There is compelling evidence that a large fraction of the “unidentified sink” may be accounted for by uptake in the temperate and/or boreal

zones of the terrestrial Northern Hemisphere. Source: F. Hall, Office of Global Carbon Studies, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Atmospheric

Carbon

Fossil Fuels Land-Use

Change

Ocean Uptake

Unidentified

Sink

=+ - -

Atmospheric

Storage

Human

Input

Biosphere

Uptake

Pg C yr-1

To

Atmosphere

To

Land/Ocean

3.3 ± 0.2

6.3 ± 0.6

1.6 ± 0.8

2.3 ± 0.8

2.3 ± 1.3

Question 7.1:What are the magnitudes and

distributions of North American carbon sources and

sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales, and what

are the processes controlling their dynamics?
Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• Are there potential “surprises,” where sources could increase or

sinks disappear?

Research Needs

Continued and enhanced NACP research will require multidisciplinary

investigations that merge observational, experimental, and modeling

approaches at various scales to produce a consistent North American

carbon balance (NACP, 2002). Observational needs include reliable

measurements of atmospheric concentrations, vertical profiles, and

transport of CO2, CH4, and related tracers (e.g., the ratio of oxygen

to nitrogen (O2/N2), CO2 isotopes); micrometeorological estimates of

net CO2 and CH4 fluxes with accompanying biometric measurements

at ecosystem and landscape scales; biomass and soil inventories of

carbon in forests, crop and grazing lands, wetlands, and unmanaged

ecosystems; monitoring of carbon transport by erosion and rivers;

and measurements of coastal ocean carbon constituents, processes,

and air-sea and land-ocean fluxes.There is a need for improved

measurement technologies and standardization of analytical methods

and reference materials.The work to secure the required observational

networks and enhancements will need to be closely coordinated with

the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) plan for climatequality observations.

A field program, with intensive campaigns, process studies, and

remote sensing of productivity and land cover, will be conducted

initially within selected regions of the United States, and subsequently

expanded to include the entire continent. Innovative ecosystem,

inverse, and data assimilation modeling approaches will be needed to

enable comprehensive carbon accounting and improve understanding

of North American carbon stocks and flows.

Joint activities with the Water Cycle research element to measure

CO2 and water vapor fluxes and the transport of carbon and nutrients

through surface waters and wetlands will be needed to economize

on costly field measurements and share expertise. Collaboration

with the Ecosystems research element will be needed to characterize

process controls on carbon flow through plants, soils, and aquatic

systems and to conduct multi-factor manipulative experiments (i.e.,

experiments in which key environmental factors are varied under

controlled conditions) in terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Research

on human system influences, requiring inputs from the Human

Contributions and Responses research element, will be equally

important, especially in studies of emissions from fossil-fuel use; land,

animal, and waste management practices; and the effects of adaptation

actions implemented at local, state, regional, or national levels.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Improved methodologies for carbon source and sink accounting

in agriculture and forestry [2 years].This will be an important

input for the Decision Support element.

• Quantitative measures of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations

and related tracers in under-sampled locations [2-4 years].

74

Linear Average CO2 Growth Rate

Atmospheric CO2 Annual Fossil Fuel Emissions Growth Rate

1955 1966 1975 1985 1995 2005

2

4

6

8

0

Pg C yr-1

Year

Figure 7-3: Rate of

increase of atmospheric

CO2 and fossil-fuel

emissions. The upper curve

shows the annual global

amount of carbon added

to the atmosphere (in PgC

yr-1) in the form of CO2 by

burning coal, oil, and

natural gas. The strongly

varying curve shows the

annual rate of increase of

carbon in the atmosphere.

The difference between the

two curves represents the

total net amount of CO2

absorbed each year by the

oceans and terrestrial

ecosystems. For more

information, see Annex C.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle

• Landscape-scale estimates of carbon stocks in agricultural, forest,

and range systems and unmanaged ecosystems from spatially

resolved carbon inventory and remote-sensing data [beyond 4

years].This will be an important input for the Ecosystems

research element.

• Quantitative estimates of carbon fluxes from managed and

unmanaged ecosystems in North America and surrounding

oceans, with regional specificity [beyond 4 years]. Measurement

sites will be coordinated with the Water Cycle, Ecosystems, and

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research elements.

• Carbon cycle models customized for North America [2-4 years],

with improved physical controls and characterization of respiration

[2 years] and employing the first carbon data assimilation

approaches [2-4 years].

• Prototype State of the Carbon Cycle report focused on North

America [2 years], followed by a more comprehensive report

[beyond 4 years].This will be a valuable input for the Decision

Support element.

New data and models will provide enhanced capability for estimating

the future capacity of carbon sources and sinks and will guide full

carbon accounting on regional and continental scales.These results

are a prerequisite for planning, implementing, and monitoring carbon

management practices in North America. Decisionmakers will

receive a series of increasingly comprehensive and informative reports

about the status and trends of carbon emissions and sequestration in

North America, and their contribution to the global carbon balance,

for use in policy formulation and resource management.

State of Knowledge

The ocean is the largest of the dynamic carbon reservoirs on

decadal to millennial time scales, and ocean processes have regulated

the uptake, storage, and release of CO2 to the atmosphere over past

glacial-interglacial cycles. Globally, the ocean’s present-day net

uptake of carbon is approximately 2 PgC yr-1 (see Figure 7-4),

accounting for the removal from the

atmosphere of about 30% of fossil-fuel

emissions (IPCC, 2001a). Marine carbon

storage is jointly modulated by ocean

circulation and biogeochemistry.

Physical processes, primarily the

ventilation of surface waters and mixing

with intermediate and deep waters, have

been largely responsible for regulating

the historical uptake and storage of this

anthropogenic carbon. However,

knowledge is not yet sufficient to account

for regional, seasonal, or interannual

variations in ocean carbon uptake.

There is growing appreciation of the

importance and complexity of factors

governing the biological uptake of CO2

and subsequent export of organic carbon

to the deep sea (e.g., iron limitation,

nitrogen fixation, calcification, aquatic

community structure, subsurface remineralization).The discovery that iron

is a limiting nutrient for major regions

of the world’s oceans has profound

implications for understanding controls

on ocean carbon uptake, as well as for

evaluating carbon management options.

The responses of air-sea CO2 fluxes and

marine ecosystems to daily, seasonal, and

interannual variations in nutrient supply

and climate are not well documented

outside the equatorial Pacific.

Knowledge is also lacking on the

magnitudes, locations, and mechanisms

of surface carbon export and subsequent

re-mineralization in the mesopelagic

75

FY04 CCRI Priority—North

America’s Carbon Balance

Climate Change Research Initiative

research on the carbon cycle will focus

on North America’s carbon balance.This

research will reduce uncertainties related

to the buildup of CO2 and CH4 in the

atmosphere and the fraction of fossil-fuel

carbon being taken up by North

America’s ecosystems and adjacent

oceans (NRC, 2001a).This work will be

undertaken in the context of the U.S.

Global Change Research Program’s

ongoing North American Carbon

Program to quantify the magnitudes and

distributions of terrestrial, oceanic, and

atmospheric carbon sources and sinks, to

understand the processes controlling their

dynamics, and to produce a consistent

analysis of North America’s carbon

budget that explains regional and

sectoral contributions and year-to-year

variations.

The CCRI will augment monitoring

capabilities for atmospheric concentrations

of CO2, CH4, and related tracers.The

CCRI will invest in expanding and

enhancing the AmeriFlux network,

which measures net CO2 exchange

between terrestrial ecosystems and the

atmosphere, documenting how much

carbon is gained or lost on an annual

basis. New experimental studies of carbon

cycling processes in forests and soils and

new ocean carbon surveys along the

continental margins of North America

will be conducted. Development of new

in situ and remote-sensing technologies

for measuring atmospheric CO2 and CH4

and carbon in plants, soils, and the ocean

is being accelerated. New investments

in diagnostic analyses and modeling will

focus on developing innovative modeling

frameworks and model-data fusion

approaches that will bring together and

ensure synergistic uses of diverse carbon

data sets.

These CCRI investments will yield nearterm information to be summarized in a

first State of the Carbon Cycle report

focused on North America that will

provide: (1) an evaluation of our

knowledge of carbon cycle dynamics

relevant to the contributions of and

impacts on the United States, and (2)

scientific information for U.S. decision

support focused on key issues for carbon

management and policy.

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

BOX 7-1 

Question 7.2:What are the magnitudes and

distributions of ocean carbon sources and sinks on

seasonal to centennial time scales, and what are the

processes controlling their dynamics?
Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

(100-1,000 m) zone, the deep ocean, and sediments. Past analyses

have not fully accounted for carbon fluxes and dynamics on continental

margins or in the coastal ocean, where sediment-water interactions

are significant and terrestrial inputs and human-induced perturbations

are large.The future behavior of the ocean carbon sink is most

uncertain because of potentially large feedbacks among climate

change, ocean circulation, marine ecosystems, and ocean carbon

cycle processes (CCOIIG, 2003).

Illustrative Research Questions

• What is the global inventory and geographic distribution of

anthropogenic CO2 in the oceans?

• What is the magnitude, spatial pattern, and variability of air-sea

CO2 fluxes?

• How are the ocean inventories of carbon and related

biogeochemical constituents changing over time?

• What biogeochemical, ecological, and physical processes control

oceanic uptake and release of carbon, and how may these

processes change in the future? What are the major feedback

mechanisms and climate sensitivities for ocean carbon storage?

• What quantity of carbon is transported to the oceans from the

land and associated freshwater systems, and how much of this

carbon contributes to net storage?

Research Needs

CCSP carbon cycle research will need to continue and enhance

global ocean observations (in situ and remotely sensed) to track the

fate of carbon in the oceans, characterize fluxes of carbon and

nutrients (e.g., iron, nitrogen, phosphorus), quantify transfers from

the land and atmosphere to the ocean over large space and time

scales, and understand the physical and biogeochemical processes

that control ocean carbon fluxes now and in the future. Global carbon

hydrographic surveys, surface water partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2)

observations, time-series measurements, satellite remote sensing,

and a North American coastal observing system are needed to

understand the feedback links among the open ocean, ocean margins,

the terrestrial environment, and the atmosphere (CCOIIG, 2003;

GOOS, 2002; LSCOP, 2002; Ocean Theme Team, 2001).

Enabling activities will be needed in the areas of chemical reference

standards, in situ sensor and autonomous platform technology

development, remote-sensing algorithms and validation, data

management and accessibility, and computational capacity for

modeling. Research will be required to integrate and reconcile

oceanic and atmospheric carbon uptake estimates through enhanced

data synthesis and numerical modeling approaches including both

forward and inverse models as well as data assimilation. Data from

the Climate Variability and Change research element will be needed

to support the development and implementation of models linking

climate, ocean circulation, ocean carbon biogeochemistry, and

marine ecosystem dynamics to assess more accurately the relationship

of carbon sources and sinks to global climate change.

Multidisciplinary process studies will be needed to understand the

response of ocean ecosystems to interannual climatic variability,

biogeochemical cycling in the upper 1,000 meters of the ocean,

continental margin carbon dynamics, and air-sea gas exchange.

76

Figure 7-4: Map showing the climatological mean annual distribution of net sea-air CO2 flux (in moles CO2 m-2yr-1) over the global oceans. The blue-magenta

areas indicate that the ocean is a sink for atmospheric CO2, and the yellow-red areas, a source. The annual CO2 uptake by the oceans has been estimated to

be in the range of 1.5 to 2.1 PgC. Source: T. Takahashi, NOAA Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. For more information, see Annex C.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

-80

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

-80

-9.5 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -3.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 7.1

Net Flux (moles CO2 m-2 yr-1)
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle

Focused process studies in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and

along the continental margins of those basins, including inputs from

rivers and estuaries, are needed in the next several years to provide

independent constraints on quantification of the Northern

Hemisphere carbon sink, enable designation of sources and source

dynamics, and improve estimation of the retention capability of the

sinks (NACP, 2002).

It is anticipated that in 5 to 10 years, an intensive program of

research will be needed to resolve uncertainties about the sensitivity

to climate change of the physical, chemical, and biological factors

regulating carbon fluxes in the Southern Ocean.The specific

objectives of this Southern Ocean Carbon Program will be defined

in the next several years as the results of recent research in the

Southern Ocean [i.e., Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) and

World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE)] are synthesized

and become available, carbon cycle models are improved, and new

enabling technologies are developed.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Quantification of temporal changes in the global ocean inventories

of anthropogenic carbon and related biogeochemical constituents

[2-4 years].

• Estimates of the interannual variability in the regional- and

basin-scale air-sea CO2 fluxes for the North Atlantic and North

Pacific based on in situ measurements, remote sensing, and data

assimilation [2-4 years].

• Greater understanding of the role of nutrients and trace metals,

phytoplankton functional groups, primary productivity, and

subsurface transport and dynamics in carbon export to the deep

sea [2-4 years].

• Improved models of ocean biogeochemical processes based on

linkages with ocean observations from repeat transects and

time-series measurements [2-4 years].

• Observational and modeling constraints on ocean carbon

dynamics, land-ocean exchange, and air-sea fluxes for the

continental margin regions surrounding North America [beyond

4 years].

• Quantification of global air-sea fluxes of CO2, lateral ocean

carbon transport, delivery of carbon from the land to the ocean,

particle fluxes and export rates, and the spatial distribution of

carbon in the ocean on seasonal to interannual time scales using

remote and in situ measurements and data assimilation models

[beyond 4 years].These products will be important inputs for

the Climate Variability and Change and Modeling research

elements.

• Models of ocean uptake of carbon that integrate biogeochemistry,

ocean circulation, and marine ecosystem responses [beyond 4

years].These models will be important inputs for the Climate

Variability and Change and Modeling research elements.

• Estimates of the climate sensitivity and potential feedbacks to

climate change of carbon cycling processes in the Southern

Ocean [beyond 4 years].

This research will quantify the capacity of the oceans to absorb

fossil-fuel CO2 and sequester carbon through export to the deep

sea. Scientific information will be provided on the potential for

large feedbacks to the climate system.

State of Knowledge

Historic and current land-use changes and resource management

practices impact the overall carbon cycle. For example, there has

been widespread reforestation since 1900 in the eastern United

States following the movement of agricultural production toward

the Midwest. Forest growth and conversion of forests to long-lived

wood products increase the carbon stored in the forest products

pool. Better land management practices (e.g., reduced soil tillage in

cropping systems), increased agricultural productivity, and conversion

from cropland to grassland can increase carbon storage in soil.

However, changes in land use and management, such as clearing

forests and grasslands and intensive tillage and harvest practices,

release CO2 to the atmosphere.

Currently, terrestrial ecosystems offset only a modest fraction of

fossil-fuel emissions, but deliberate management options offer the

potential to achieve additional carbon storage (IPCC, 2000a,

2001a). Utilizing terrestrial carbon sequestration as a near-term

option for reducing the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases

requires an improved understanding of the role of land use and

management in the carbon cycle.

Illustrative Research Questions

• What are the roles of past and current land use and management

in terrestrial carbon sources and sinks at local to continental

scales?

• How do resource management practices and likely future changes

in management, at local to continental scales, affect carbon

stored in terrestrial ecosystems and durable products?

• How do social, political, and economic forces influence decisions

regarding land use and resource management, and how might

changes in these forces affect the carbon cycle?

Research Needs

Continued monitoring of carbon fluxes and storage (in soil, litter, root

systems, vegetation, forest products, woody debris, and sediments)

and their response to land-use changes, nutrient inputs, and

resource management practices will be required to accurately

quantify the role of land-cover and land-use change in the global

carbon cycle. Maintenance and enhancement of the data collection and

synthesis capabilities of national networks of long-term experimental

sites in forests, rangelands, wetlands, agricultural lands, and other

ecosystems are needed to provide an essential foundation of

ecosystem monitoring data. Carbon cycle research will require

close collaborations with national and international operational

resource management and inventory programs to ensure the

availability of reliable long-term observations of ecological processes,

environmental changes and impacts, and treatment effects.

Continued satellite land-cover data products and new remote-sensing

estimates of aboveground biomass will be needed. Process studies

77

Question 7.3:What are the effects on carbon

sources and sinks of past, present, and future landuse change and resource management practices at

local, regional, and global scales?
Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

State of Knowledge

There is a growing realization that the carbon cycle can only be

understood as an integrated global system. It is necessary to study

individual components of the carbon cycle (e.g., North America, the

world’s oceans, ecosystems experiencing changes in land use), but

additional attention must be devoted to integrating the results of

such studies and placing them in a global context. Many of the most

important advances over the last decade involved new combinations

of data and models for components of the Earth’s carbon cycle to

provide valuable understanding of, and constraints on, carbon

sources and sinks in other components. Estimates of regional ocean

sources and sinks can now be used in combination with atmospheric

data to constrain estimates of terrestrial carbon sinks. A major

advance in the past decade has been the ability, enabled by new

techniques for atmospheric measurement, to distinguish the roles of

the ocean and land in the uptake and storage of atmospheric carbon

(CCWG, 1999).

Inverse modeling techniques are approaching continental-scale

resolution of sources and sinks, but with significant uncertainties due

to sparse input data and the limitations of atmospheric transport

models. For much of the world, CO2 emissions are calculated from

national reports of fossil-fuel usage; these country-level statistics are

not adequately resolved spatially for many scientific studies and

independent validation information is not available. Key processes

dominating uptake and release of carbon can vary in different

regions of the world, and can change in response to changes in

natural and human forcings (IPCC, 2000a, 2001a). New remotesensing observations have engendered a new appreciation for the

significant spatial and temporal variability of primary productivity

in Earth’s ecosystems (FAO, 2002; Ocean Theme Team, 2001).

Illustrative Research Questions

• What are the current state of and trends in the global carbon cycle?

• What natural processes and human activities control carbon

emissions and uptake around the world, and how are they

changing?

• How will changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration,

and human activity influence carbon sources and sinks both

regionally and globally?

Research Needs

Sustained investments will be needed in the collection, standardization,

management, analysis, and reporting of relevant global carbon

monitoring and inventory data; in the elucidation of carbon cycling

processes; and in the development of improved process models,

interactive carbon-climate models, and, ultimately, Earth system

models. New in situ and space-based observational capabilities will

be needed (FAO, 2002; Ocean Theme Team, 2001). Measurements

of atmospheric carbon isotopic signatures and new approaches for

deriving or measuring fossil-fuel emissions at higher spatial resolution

(i.e., at least 100 km) will be needed to better understand global

fossil-fuel emissions. Process studies must focus on characterizing

key controls as they vary around the world (e.g., land-use history,

ecosystem disturbance regimes, nutrients, climatic variability and

change, ocean circulation, resource and land management actions)

and on explaining changes in the growth rates of atmospheric CO2,

CH4, and other greenhouse gases (the effects of black carbon

78

linked with observations and long-term manipulative experiments

will be required to identify cause-and-effect relationships and evaluate

interactions with other biogeochemical cycles (e.g., the nitrogen

cycle and effects on nitrous oxide emissions).

Research in this area will require inputs from the Land-Use/LandCover Change research element to document global patterns of

land use and land cover and to understand changes in them, along

with land management practices, as powerful drivers of terrestrial

carbon sinks and sources.There is also an urgent need for improved

understanding of the processes of land-use change and the impacts

of environmental and resource management decisions. Models are

needed to link ecosystem, management, policy, and socioeconomic

factors to better project future changes in both carbon storage and

flux and land use and development.Thus, collaborations with social

scientists and inputs on the social and economic drivers of land-use

change from the Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research element

will be necessary.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Database of agricultural management effects on carbon emissions

and sequestration in the United States [2-4 years].

• Evaluation of the effects of land-cover and land-use change and

disturbance (e.g., fire, erosion) on carbon sources and sinks and

the fate of carbon in selected ecosystems (e.g., in Amazonia [2-4

years], northern Eurasia [4 years], and the pan-tropics [beyond 4

years]).This product will be developed in collaboration with the

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research element.

• Quantification of the effects of different land-use changes and

management practices on biomass and soil carbon storage and

release and their costs [beyond 4 years].These results will be an

important input for the Decision Support element.

• Analysis of the effects of historical and contemporary land-use

on carbon storage and release across environmental gradients

[beyond 4 years].This product will be developed in collaboration

with the Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research element.

• Linked ecosystem, resource management, and human dimensions

models that enable scientific evaluation of effects on carbon

sequestration in a context of other management concerns such

as market prices, land allocation decisions, and consumer and

producer welfare [beyond 4 years].These models will be

developed in collaboration with the Human Contributions and

Responses, Land-Use/Land-Cover Change, and Ecosystems

research elements.They will provide important inputs for the

Decision Support element.

Quantifying past and current effects of land-use change and

resource management on the carbon cycle will enable policymakers

and resource managers to predict how current activities will affect

the carbon cycle at multiple scales and to develop alternative policies

and practices for near-term carbon management.

Question 7.4: How do global terrestrial, oceanic,

and atmospheric carbon sources and sinks change on

seasonal to centennial time scales, and how can this

knowledge be integrated to quantify and explain

annual global carbon budgets?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle

aerosols on the global radiation balance are addressed by the

Atmospheric Composition research element).

Improving models will require development of innovative new

assimilation and modeling techniques and rigorous testing, evaluation,

and periodic intercomparison. Climatic and hydrological data

products (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, surface temperature, sea

surface winds, salinity) from the Water Cycle and Climate

Variability and Change research elements will be required as inputs

for these models. Activities to secure enhanced measurements of

atmospheric CO2, CH4, other important carbon-containing

greenhouse gases, carbon monoxide, and related tracers will need to

be coordinated with the Atmospheric Composition research element.

Joint improvement of land-atmosphere exchange and atmospheric

transport models with the Water Cycle, Atmospheric Composition,

and Ecosystems research elements will be required.The Carbon

Cycle science program will need to collaborate with all CCSP

research elements to assemble, merge, and integrate carbon,

biogeochemical, physical, and socioeconomic information for

comprehensive reporting on the state of the global carbon cycle.

Continued international cooperation will be necessary to integrate

results and ensure widespread utility.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• U.S. contributions to an international carbon observing system,

including measurements of carbon storage and fluxes,

complementary environmental data, and assessment of the

current quality of measurements [ongoing; less than 2 years for

enhancements]. Some of these will be the systematic climate

quality observations needed for the CCRI.

• Global, synoptic data products from satellite remote sensing

documenting changes in terrestrial and marine primary productivity,

biomass, vegetation structure, land cover, and atmospheric column

CO2 [all but CO2, ongoing; CO2, beyond 4 years].

• Global maps of carbon stocks derived from model-based analysis

of actual land cover [1-km resolution, 2 years; 30-m resolution,

beyond 4 years].

• Identification and quantification of the processes controlling soil

carbon storage and loss and global CO2 exchange among the

land, ocean, and atmosphere [2-4 years]. Aspects related to

intercontinental transport of carbon-containing trace gases will

be addressed in collaboration with the Atmospheric

Composition research element.

• Identification of the processes controlling carbon sources and

sinks through multi-factor manipulative experiments, studies

of disturbance, and integration of decision sciences and risk

management studies [beyond 4 years].

• Interactive global climate-carbon cycle models that explore the

coupling and feedbacks between the physical and biogeochemical

systems [2-4 years].

• First State of the Global Carbon Cycle report and balanced global

carbon budget [beyond 4 years].These products will be important

inputs for the Decision Support element.

Policymakers and resource managers will be provided with consistent,

integrated, and quantitative information on global carbon sources

and sinks that can be used in worldwide carbon accounting and for

evaluating and verifying carbon management activities. Improved

global carbon models and understanding of key process controls on

carbon uptake and emissions, including regional variations, will be

made available to improve applied climate models and decision

support systems.

State of Knowledge

Geological and paleoclimatic records indicate that major changes in

carbon cycle dynamics have occurred in the past.These changes

have been attributed to a variety of feedbacks, non-linear responses,

threshold effects, or rare events. For example, there is evidence that

huge, near-instantaneous releases of CH4, very likely from clathrate

(CH4 hydrate) deposits, have affected the climate system in the

past. Changes in the ocean’s thermohaline circulation may have

caused large changes in ocean CO2 uptake. Failure to consider such

possibilities in model projections could result in large over- or

under-estimates of future atmospheric carbon concentrations, with

consequent implications for policy scenarios (IPCC, 2001a).

Understanding of how carbon cycling may change in response to

conditions significantly different from those of the present can be

achieved through three complementary approaches: (1) Paleoclimatic

and paleoecological information is used to refine our understanding

of the processes controlling carbon cycling under past conditions;

(2) analogs of future states are employed in manipulative experiments

to observe and quantify the behavior of the system under new

combinations of conditions; and (3) models (both inverse and forward)

are used to simulate future system behavior based on a set of

assumed initial conditions and hypothesized system interactions.

Several different types of carbon models are available, but most lack

complete integration of all components, interactive coupling, ability

to portray rare events or abrupt transitions, and/or full validation.

While no one of these models is ideal, as a group they are becoming

quite useful for exploring global change scenarios and bounding

potential future CO2 conditions and responses of ecosystems

(IPCC, 2001a). Current models are less useful for projecting future

CH4 conditions, primarily because sufficient measurements and

process understanding are lacking.

Illustrative Research Questions

• How will the distribution, strength, and dynamics of global carbon

sources and sinks change in the next few decades and centuries?

• What are the processes that control the responses of terrestrial

and marine carbon sources and sinks to future increases in CO2,

changes in climate, and inherent natural variability?

• How can we best represent carbon cycle processes in models to

produce realistic projections of atmospheric concentrations?

• What are the important land use-climate-ocean-carbon cycle

interactions and feedbacks? Which of these are most sensitive to

climate change and/or have the potential to lead to anomalous

responses?

79

Question 7.5:What will be the future atmospheric

concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and

other carbon-containing greenhouse gases, and how

will terrestrial and marine carbon sources and sinks

change in the future?
Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Research Needs

Accurate projections of future atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels are

essential for calculating radiative forcings in models that project

changes in climate and their impact on the sustainability of natural

resources and human populations (NRC, 2001a). Advances will

require a combination of observations, manipulative experiments,

and synthesis via models enabled by increases in computational

capabilities. Paleoecological and paleoclimatic studies will be needed

to provide insight into the magnitude and mechanisms of past

changes and the potential for abrupt changes in atmospheric levels

of CH4 or CO2. Manipulative experiments will be needed to

understand physiological acclimation to enhanced CO2 levels,

effects on processes that influence feedbacks to the climate system

(e.g., nitrous oxide production, evapotranspiration, melting of

permafrost), and the integrated effects of changes in multiple,

interacting environmental factors.

Modeling activities will need to focus on incorporating improved

process understanding into carbon cycle models, developing new

generations of terrestrial and ocean carbon exchange models, and

developing Earth system models with a dynamic coupling between

carbon cycle processes, human activities, and the climate system.

Collaborations with the Ecosystems research element on processes

of ecosystem change and nitrogen cycling and with the Atmospheric

Composition research element on future atmospheric greenhouse gas

composition will be essential. Modeling of future carbon conditions

will require inputs on future human actions and responses (including

changes in energy consumption, land use and management, technology

utilization, and adaptation and mitigation practices) from the

Human Contributions and Responses and Land-Use/Land-Cover

Change research elements and from the CCTP.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Synthesis of whole ecosystem response to increasing atmospheric

CO2 concentrations, and changes in temperature, precipitation,

and other factors (e.g., iron fertilization for the ocean, nitrogen

fertilization for terrestrial ecosystems) based on multi-factor

experimental manipulation studies [2-4 years].This synthesis

will be developed in collaboration with the Ecosystems research

element.

• Advanced carbon cycle models that incorporate improved

parameterizations based on data from manipulative experiments,

soil carbon transformation studies, and paleoclimatic and

paleoecological studies [beyond 4 years].

• Carbon models that include the long-term effects of land use

[2-4 years].

• Advanced carbon models able to simulate interannual variability

at ecosystem, landscape, and ocean basin scales for selected

areas [2-4 years].

• Analysis of global CH4 dynamics, with the potential for reduced

uncertainties, based on a new synthesis of observational data and

improved models that address radiative forcing and the potential

for abrupt change [beyond 4 years].This product will be

developed in collaboration with the Atmospheric Composition

research element.

• Evaluation of the potential for dramatic changes in carbon storage

and fluxes due to changes in climate, atmospheric composition,

ecosystem disturbance, ocean circulation, and land-use change,

and characterization of potential feedbacks to the climate system

[beyond 4 years].This information will provide important inputs

to the Climate Variability and Change and Modeling research

elements.

• Improved projections of climate change forcings (i.e., atmospheric

CO2 and CH4 concentrations) and quantification of dynamic

feedbacks among the carbon cycle, human actions, and the climate

system, with better estimates of errors and sources of uncertainty,

from prognostic models [beyond 4 years].This information will

provide important inputs to the Climate Variability and Change,

Modeling, and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research elements

and will be of use to the Ecosystems research element for

designing and interpreting ecosystem experiments.

New understanding of the controls on carbon cycle processes will

be provided to improve parameterizations and/or mechanistic

portrayals in climate models. Projections of future atmospheric

concentrations of CO2 and CH4 will be made available for use in

applied climate models and analysis of impacts on ecosystems. Both

will aid in improving model projections of future climate change.

State of Knowledge

Questions about the effectiveness of carbon sequestration, the

longevity of storage, the economic consequences of reducing

emissions, technological options, resultant impacts on natural and

human systems, and the overall costs and economic viability of carbon

management approaches create an imperative for better scientific

information to inform decisionmaking. Current interest in carbon

sequestration centers on land management practices that enhance the

storage of carbon in soils and biomass (see Figure 7-5), fertilization

of the ocean via iron inputs that enhance biological uptake of carbon,

and direct CO2 injection into the deep sea or geological formations.

Presently, there is limited scientific information to evaluate the full

range of impacts of these various carbon management strategies.

Little is known about the long-term efficacy of new management

practices for enhancing carbon sequestration or reducing emissions

or how such practices will affect components of the Earth system

(NRC, 1999a,c). Basic research is needed to assess new management

practices, their feasibility and effectiveness in keeping carbon out

of the atmosphere on centennial time scales, and their potential

environmental consequences or benefits.This research element is

tightly linked to the CCTP, which focuses on engineered technologies,

carbon offsets, and economic systems.

Illustrative Research Questions

• What is the scientific basis for mitigation strategies involving

management of carbon on the land and in the ocean, and how can

we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks to sequester carbon?

• What are potential magnitudes, mechanisms, and longevity of

carbon sequestration by terrestrial and marine systems?

80

Question 7.6: How will the Earth system, and its

different components, respond to various options for

managing carbon in the environment, and what

scientific information is needed for evaluating these

options?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle

• How will elevated atmospheric CO2, climatic variability and

change, and other environmental factors and changes (such as

air, water, and land pollution; natural disturbances; and human

activities) affect carbon cycle management approaches?

• What scientific and socioeconomic criteria should be used to

evaluate the sensitivity of the carbon cycle and the vulnerability

and sustainability of carbon management approaches?

Research Needs

Field studies, manipulative experiments, and model investigations

will be needed to evaluate the effectiveness of designed management

approaches (e.g., emissions reductions, sequestration through

manipulation of biological systems, engineered sequestration) to

manipulate carbon in the ocean, land, and atmosphere and to assess

their impacts on natural and human systems. Approaches for

establishing a baseline against which to measure change will be

required as will be methods for distinguishing natural system

variability from the effects of particular human actions. New

monitoring techniques and strategies to measure the short- and

long-term efficacy of carbon management activities will be needed,

including reliable reference materials that are available to the

international community. Experiments and process studies also will

be needed to evaluate the likelihood of unintended environmental

consequences resulting from enhanced carbon sequestration or

emissions reductions practices as well as the full cost of such

approaches.

Research on the scientific underpinning for carbon management

will require coordination with the Ecosystems research element and

the CCTP as well as public and private programs responsible for

developing and/or implementing carbon management. It is expected

that, whenever possible, field and experimental studies will be

conducted in collaboration with existing carbon management

projects. Inputs from the social sciences will be needed to

characterize societal actions and responses. Models will be needed

to incorporate understanding of basic processes into evaluation of

natural and enhanced mechanisms of carbon sequestration and to

assess the economics of direct CO2 injection in the ocean and carbon

management practices in the agricultural and forestry sectors.

Research is needed to support assessments of carbon sequestration

and emissions reduction potentials, comprehensive accounting of

carbon stocks and fluxes, decisionmaking processes that involve

multiple land management scenarios, approaches for calculating net

carbon emissions intensity, and verification of the reports required

by international agreements.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Evaluation of the biophysical potential of U.S. ecosystems to

sequester carbon [selected regions, 2 years; United States, 4

years] and assessment of carbon sequestration management

practices in crops and grazing systems [2-4 years].

• Monitoring techniques and strategies to improve quantitative

measurement of the efficacy of carbon management activities:

from new in situ and existing satellite capabilities [2-4 years] and

from new satellite capabilities [beyond 4 years].This will be an

important input for the Decision Support element.

• Identification of the effects of enhanced nutrient availability on

carbon uptake in the oceans and on land and of elevated CO2 on

81

CO2

Plant Respiration

CO2

Photosynthesis

CO2

Soil Respiration

Erosion Organic

Matter

Transport

and Sediment

Trapping

Groundwater Transport

Dissolved Organic and Inorganic Carbon

Free

Soil Organic Carbon

Microbes

Roots

Litter

Organic Matter

Chemically Protected

Soil Organic Carbon

Intra-Aggregate

Soil Organic Carbon

Figure 7-5: Soil processes influence carbon

sequestration and transport. The dynamics of

carbon transformations and transport in soil

are complex and can result in sequestration in

the soil as organic matter or in groundwater as

dissolved carbonates, increased emissions of

CO2 to the atmosphere, or export of carbon in

various forms into aquatic systems. Source:

DOE. For more information, see Annex C.
Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

physiological processes and carbon allocation [beyond 4 years].

The terrestrial product will be developed in collaboration with

the Ecosystems research element.

• Evaluation of the environmental effects of mitigation options that

involve reduction or prevention of greenhouse gas emissions

[beyond 4 years].This product will be developed in collaboration

with the Ecosystems research element.

• Analysis of options for science-based carbon management decisions

and deployment by landowners [beyond 4 years].

This research will provide the scientific foundation to inform decisions

and strategies for managing carbon stocks and enhancing carbon

sinks in terrestrial and oceanic systems. It will provide scientific

information for evaluating the effects of actions that change emissions.

Firm quantitative estimates of key carbon cycle properties (e.g., rate,

magnitude, and longevity) will provide fundamental information for

projecting carbon sequestration capacity, for calculating net emissions,

for full carbon accounting, and for evaluating compliance with

international agreements.

Carbon cycle research will depend upon contributions from national

programs and projects managed outside of the CCSP and CCTP as

well as significant investments by state, tribal, and local governments

and the private sector. Priorities for cooperative partnerships are:

(1) coordination with long-term ecological research and monitoring

programs; (2) collaboration with agricultural, forest, and soil

inventories; (3) coordination with the National Oceanographic

Partnership Program (NOPP); and (4) collaboration with carbon

sequestration and emissions reduction projects supported by

governments, non-governmental organizations, and industry.

Partnerships with established data repositories and information

systems will be needed to ensure access to required data.

Cooperation with programs that provide national computational

infrastructure will be essential for advances in carbon cycle and

climate system modeling.These partnerships will be accomplished,

when feasible, through joint planning and coordinated implementation

with all participants.

International cooperation will be necessary to integrate scientific

results from around the world and ensure widespread utility of State

of the Carbon Cycle reports and model projections. Close cooperation

with Canada and Mexico under the NACP will be important to

the success of the program.The United States will depend upon

observational networks and field-based carbon programs in Europe

(e.g., CarboEurope) and Asia to contribute to an overall understanding

of the Northern Hemisphere carbon sink. Partnerships are anticipated

with the Integrated Global Observing Strategy-Partnership (IGOS-P)

and the global observing system programs [the Global Terrestrial

Observing System (GTOS), the Global Ocean Observing System

(GOOS), and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)] in

securing the global observations needed to support carbon cycle

modeling and projections of future atmospheric concentrations of

CO2 and CH4 (FAO, 2002; GOOS, 2002; Ocean Theme Team, 2001).

Coordination to establish common standards and measurement

protocols and means of interrelating measurements will be a priority.

Interactions with, and contributions to, the joint Global Carbon

Project (Global Carbon Project, 2003) of the International

Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human

Dimensions Programme (IHDP), and the World Climate Research

Programme (WCRP) will be essential for scientific interpretation

of results from around the world and global-scale integration. CCSP

carbon cycle research will contribute to bilateral activities of the

Administration by promoting cooperative research on carbon cycle

science. Results of CCSP carbon cycle research are anticipated to

contribute substantially to future international assessments,

especially Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

assessments and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA

Secretariat, 2002).

82

National and International Partnerships

Lead Authors

Diane E.Wickland, NASA

Roger Dahlman, DOE

Jessica Orrego, CCSPO

Richard A. Birdsey, USDA

Paula Bontempi, NASA

Marilyn Buford, USDA

Nancy Cavallaro, USDA

Sue Conard, USDA

Rachael Craig, NSF

Michael Jawson, USDA

Anna Palmisano, DOE

Don Rice, NSF

Ed Sheffner, NASA

David Shultz, USGS

Bryce Stokes, USDA

Kathy Tedesco, NOAA

Charles Trees, NASA

Contributors

Enriqueta Barrera, NSF

Cliff Hickman, USDA

Carol Jones, USDA

Steven Shafer, USDA

Michael Verkouteren, NIST

CHAPTER 7 AUTHORS
Ecosystems shape our societies and nations by providing

essential renewable resources and other benefits.They

sustain human life by providing the goods and services it

depends on, including food, fiber, shelter, energy, biodiversity,

clean air and water, recycling of elements, and cultural,

spiritual, and aesthetic returns. Ecosystems also affect the

climate system by exchanging large amounts of energy,

momentum, and greenhouse gases with the atmosphere.

The goal of the Ecosystems research element of the U.S.

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is to understand

and be able to project the potential effects of global change

on ecosystems, the goods and services ecosystems provide,

and ecosystem links to the climate system (see Box 8-1

and Figure 8-1).

Global change is altering the structure and functioning of

ecosystems, which in turn affects availability of ecological

resources and benefits, changes the magnitude of some

feedbacks between ecosystems and the climate system, and

could affect economic systems that depend on ecosystems.

Research during the last decade focused on the vulnerability

of ecosystems to global change and contributed to

assessments of the potential effects of global change on

ecological systems at multiple scales.

We now know that effects of environmental changes and

variability may be manifested in complex, indirect, and

CHAPTER

83

CHAPTER CONTENTS

Question 8.1:What are the most important

feedbacks between ecological systems and global

change (especially climate), and what are their

quantitative relationships?

Question 8.2:What are the potential consequences

of global change for ecological systems?

Question 8.3:What are the options for sustaining

and improving ecological systems and related goods

and services, given projected global changes?

National and International Partnerships

Ecosystems 8

Ecosystem

A community (i.e., an assemblage of populations of

plants, animals, fungi, and microorganisms that live in an

environment and interact with one another, forming

together a distinctive living system with its own

composition, structure, environmental relations,

development, and function) and its environment treated

together as a functional system of complementary

relationships and transfer and circulation of energy and

matter.

Ecosystem Goods and Services

Through numerous biological, chemical, and physical

processes, ecosystems provide both goods and services.

Goods include food, feed, fiber, fuel, pharmaceutical

products, and wildlife. Services include maintenance of

hydrologic cycles, cleansing of water and air, regulation

of climate and weather, storage and cycling of nutrients,

provision of habitat, and provision of beauty and

inspiration. Many goods pass through markets, but

services rarely do.

TWO KEY DEFINITIONS

BOX 8-1 
Figure 8-1: Key linkages and

feedbacks between ecological

systems, human systems

(societies), and the climate system

and atmospheric composition.

Spatial scales are implicit and span

from local to global. Humans

manage some ecosystems

intensively and others lightly. All

ecosystems are affected to some

degree, positively or negatively, by

major global changes.

Chapter 8. Ecosystems Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

conflicting ways. For example, warming may enhance tree growth

by extending growing season length (in temperate and cool

regions), but pathogens better able to survive the winter because of

higher temperatures may decrease forest productivity and increase

vulnerability of forests to disturbances such as fire. Subtle changes in

winds over the ocean can affect currents which in turn may alter the

ranges and population sizes of fish species and increase or decrease

fish catches.Whether environmental changes are anthropogenic or

natural in origin, human societies face substantial challenges in

ensuring that ecosystems sustain the goods and services on which

we depend for our quality of life and survival itself.

During the next 10 years, research on ecosystems will focus on two

overarching questions:

• How do natural and human-induced changes in the environment

affect the structure and functioning of ecosystems at a range of

spatial and temporal scales, including those processes that can in

turn influence regional and global climate?

• What options does society have to ensure that ecosystem goods

and services will be sustained or enhanced in the face of potential

regional and global environmental changes?

Research should be focused on building the scientific foundation

needed for an enhanced capability to forecast effects of multiple

environmental changes (such as concurrent changes in climate,

atmospheric composition, land use, pollution, invasive species, and

resource management practices) on ecosystems, and for developing

products for decision support in managing ecosystems. Near-term

priorities will be placed on economically important ecosystems

(e.g., Figure 8-2) and special studies relevant to regions where

abrupt environmental changes or threshold responses by ecosystems

may occur. Investigations will emphasize changes in ecosystem

structure and functioning and changes in the frequency and intensity

of disturbance processes anticipated to have significant consequences

for society during the next 50 years, including altered productivity,

changes in biodiversity and species invasions (including pests and

pathogens), and changes in carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles.

Ensuring the desired provision of ecosystem goods and services will

require an understanding of interactions among basic ecosystem

processes and developing approaches to reduce the vulnerabilities to,

or take advantage of opportunities that arise because of, global and

climatic changes. Scientific research can contribute to this societal goal

by addressing three questions that focus on linkages and feedbacks

between ecosystems and drivers of global change, important

consequences of global change for ecological systems, and societal

options for sustaining and enhancing ecosystem goods and services

as environmental conditions change.This research will produce

critical knowledge and provide a forecasting capability that will

continuously improve decisionmaking for resource management and

policy development.

State of Knowledge

Biological, chemical, and physical processes occurring in ecosystems

affect and are affected by weather and climate in many ways. For

example, ecosystems (and the organisms they contain) exchange

large amounts of greenhouse gases with the atmosphere, including

84

Ecosystems

¥ Food, fiber, fuel, clean air and water

¥ Biogeochemical cycles and

greenhouse gas fluxes

¥ Surface energy balance

¥ Biodiversity

¥ Spiritual and cultural benefits

Human Systems

and Actions

¥ Population

¥ Values and beliefs

¥ Government institutions

¥ Economic systems

¥ Laws and regulations

¥ Technology

Climate System and

Atmospheric Composition

¥ Temperature

¥ Precipitation

¥ Wind and storms

¥ Solar radiation

¥ Long-wave radiation

¥ Atmospheric CO2 and ozone

Anthropogenic

Forcings

Consequences

Chemical and

Physical

Feedbacks

Consequences

Ecological

Management

Goods and

Services

Question 8.1:What are the most important

feedbacks between ecological systems and global

change (especially climate), and what are their

quantitative relationships?
Figure 8-2: Landscapes and ecosystems are

managed (some intensively, some lightly) by

humans to produce grain, timber, and cattle,

among many other goods and services

desired by societies. For example, according

to the United Nations Food and Agriculture

Organization, 96% of the protein and 99% of

the energy (usable calories) in the U.S. food

supply come from terrestrial ecosystems (the

remainder is derived from the ocean).

Globally, about 94% of protein and 99% of

energy in the human food supply come from

terrestrial ecosystems. Photo sources: Tim

McCabe (left and right) and Jeff Vanuga

(bottom), USDA NRCS.

Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 8. Ecosystems

water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous

oxide (N2O). Moreover, the reflection (or absorption) of solar

radiation by ecosystems is important to the temperature of Earth’s

surface. Linkages among the physical, chemical, and biological

components of ecosystems are important on short (minutes to days)

and long (years to millennia) time scales, as well as local to global

spatial scales.

Global change has the potential to alter ecosystem structure (e.g.,

amount of leaf area, plant height, or species composition) and

ecosystem functioning (e.g., rates of evapotranspiration, carbon

assimilation, and biogeochemical cycling), and those potential

changes in ecosystems might enhance or reduce global change

through numerous feedback mechanisms (see Box 8-2). In addition

to its direct linkages with ecological systems, global change could

alter human actions that affect the structure, functioning, and spatial

distribution of ecosystems, which in turn could alter important

feedbacks from ecological systems to climate.

The most important feedbacks, either positive or negative, are likely

to involve:

• Altered ecosystem/atmosphere exchanges of greenhouse gases

• Altered releases of aerosols from ecosystems (including black

carbon and sulfur resulting from controlled and uncontrolled

ecosystem burning)

• Altered releases of volatile organic compounds from ecosystems

• Changes in surface albedo resulting from changes in ecosystems

• Changes in the fraction of absorbed solar radiation that drives

evapotranspiration compared to directly heating the plants and

soils in terrestrial ecosystems

• Long-term changes in ecosystem structure or shifts in the geographic distribution and extent of major ecosystem types.

Illustrative Research Questions

• How might changes in temperature and precipitation affect net

ecosystem exchanges (or timing or geographic distribution of

those exchanges) of greenhouse gases and aerosols?

• How might changes in climate and atmospheric composition, in

combination with other factors such as land-use/cover changes,

affect ecosystem albedo, evapotranspiration, and nutrient cycling?

• How might changes in regional air quality (including chemicals

and aerosols released from industrial sources or ecosystem

disturbances such as wildfires and crop residue burning), in

combination with climatic variability and change, affect ecosystem

albedo and exchange of greenhouse gases?

• How might changes in ecosystems alter Earth’s radiation balance,

freshwater cycle, and carbon cycle, and could any such alterations

contribute to abrupt climate change?

• How might human activities affect the release or uptake of

greenhouse gases by ecosystems?

85
Chapter 8. Ecosystems Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Research Needs

Research needs include improved experimental facilities and

capabilities for making measurements in those facilities, ecosystem

models, and ecosystem observing capabilities (and their related

measurements) at multiple scales (to scale up from point observations

with remotely sensed data). Initial efforts will be directed at

enhancing existing capabilities and improving use of existing data

streams. Studies should include identification of early indicators of

changes in ecosystems that may be important as feedbacks to climate

and atmospheric composition. Specific research needs include:

• Field and controlled-environment experimental facilities and

long-term ecological observing systems at multiple locations to

quantify ecosystem-environment interactions (focusing on

ecosystem greenhouse gas and energy exchanges) to better

parameterize, calibrate, and evaluate models of land-oceanatmosphere chemistry feedbacks. Primary linkages are to the

Carbon Cycle and Water Cycle research elements to share data

and experimental sites and facilities.

• Spatially explicit ecosystem models capable of representing

complex interactions between diverse ecosystems and their

physical and chemical environments.

• Models that link remote sensing of land surface albedo to changes

in the spatial distribution of ecosystems and exchanges of mass,

energy, and momentum for implementation in climate models. It

is anticipated that these models will be developed in collaboration

with the Water Cycle and Carbon Cycle research elements. A

primary linkage is to the Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research

element to provide model-based projections of future land cover.

• Social science research to explore human factors in ecosystemclimate linkages and feedbacks.The Human Contributions and

Responses element must supply information on the magnitude

and significance of the primary human drivers of global change.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Reports presenting a synthesis of current knowledge of

observed and potential (modeled) feedbacks between ecosystems

and climatic change to aid understanding of such feedbacks and

identify knowledge gaps for research planning [2-4 years]; Arctic

Climate Impact Assessment [2 years].

• Definition of the initial requirements for ecosystem observations

to quantify feedbacks to climate and atmospheric composition,

to enhance existing observing systems, and to guide development

of new observing capabilities [2-4 years].This will provide key

input to the Observing and Monitoring component of CCSP

research.

• Quantification of important feedbacks from ecological systems

to climate and atmospheric composition to improve the accuracy

of climate projections [beyond 4 years].This product will be

needed by the Climate Variability and Change research element

to ensure inclusion of appropriate ecological components in

future climate models.

86

A feedback from an ecosystem to climate or atmospheric

composition occurs when a change in climate or

atmospheric composition causes a change in the ecosystem

that in turn alters the rate of the “original” change in

climate or atmospheric composition. A positive feedback

intensifies the original change whereas a negative feedback

slows the original change (but does not change its sign).

A positive feedback could occur, for example, if warming

and drying (caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

concentration) of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems

containing large amounts of carbon in plants and soils

(e.g., tundra and peatland) resulted in greater ecosystem

respiration, and this increased the rate of atmospheric CO2

increase, which then accelerated the warming and drying.A

negative feedback might occur, for example, if increasing

atmospheric CO2 concentration increased primary

production in aquatic and/or terrestrial ecosystems, and

that increased production resulted in greater carbon storage

on land and in waters.This could slow the increase in

radiative forcing from greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

FEEDBACKS

BOX 8-2

Figure 8-3: When stressed, corals frequently expel their symbiotic algae

en mass, leaving coral bereft of pigmentation and appearing nearly

transparent on the animal’s white skeleton, a phenomenon referred to as

coral bleaching. This image of bleached coral colonies was obtained during

the January-March 2002 coral bleaching event in Great Barrier Reef,

Australia, the worst bleaching event on record for this reef. Bleaching

events reported prior to the 1980s were generally attributed to local

phenomena (e.g., major storm events, sedimentation, or pollution); but,

since then, a direct relationship between bleaching events and elevated

ocean temperature (see Figure 8-4) was found. Source: Ray Berkelmans,

Australian Institute of Marine Science.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 8. Ecosystems

State of Knowledge 

Many research programs that support long-term observations [e.g.,

forest productivity, ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation received by

ecosystems, greenhouse gas concentrations and fluxes, atmospheric

nitrogen deposition, nutrient loading, fisheries, and the spread of

invasive species] have unambiguously established that large-scale

ecological changes are occurring, and there is considerable evidence

that some of those changes are the result of ecological responses to

climatic variability and change. For example, recent warming has

been indicated as potentially linked to longer growing seasons (i.e.,

period of leaf display) in temperate and boreal terrestrial ecosystems,

grass species decline, changes in aquatic biodiversity, and coral

bleaching (IPCC, 2001b) (see Figures 8-3 and 8-4). Natural modes

of climatic variability (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North

Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Variability) are known to

affect plankton and fisheries, such as those yielding sardine, anchovies,

and salmon. Soil-borne plant pathogens and parasitic nematodes have

been found to move northward (in the Northern Hemisphere) with

increased surface temperature. Because survival and spread of

pathogens and their vectors (carriers) depend on climate and weather,

climatic change and increased natural climatic variability would be

expected to affect disease-causing organisms that could alter the

ecological status of fauna and flora.These and other observations and

expectations have come from both experiments and in situ monitoring.

Most ecosystems are now subject to multiple environmental

changes.The dynamics and interactions of those changes and the

consequences for ecological systems are poorly understood (NRC,

1999a). Recent reviews (e.g., IPCC, 2001b) summarized the range

of observed and potential consequences of combinations of changes

in climate, atmospheric composition, and local drivers (e.g., invasive

species, pollution, and physical habitat modification) on ecological

systems. For example, in aquatic systems, alterations in wind

speeds and precipitation patterns, in combination with increased air

temperature, would affect water column stratification and circulation,

resulting in changes in the rates of nutrient supply and productivity

at all trophic levels. For terrestrial ecosystems, a large knowledge

base of effects of a change in a single environmental parameter exists,

but effects of multiple changes on most ecosystem processes are

uncertain (see, e.g.,Table 8-1). Nonetheless, we know, for example,

that interactions among changes in temperature, precipitation, and

fire regimes can influence vulnerability to invasive species in

terrestrial ecosystems.We also know that elevated atmospheric CO2

concentration can sometimes eliminate the negative effects of elevated

tropospheric ozone (O3) concentration and warming on crop

yields.

Illustrative Research Questions

• How might the combination of increasing CO2 concentration,

increasing tropospheric O3 concentration, and warming affect

yield of major U.S. crops?

• What are the effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration,

precipitation, and temperature on the structure and functioning

of boreal forests?

• What are the effects of increased UV-B radiation, increased rates

of sea-level rise, temperature changes, and elevated concentration

of CO2 on biodiversity, structure, and functioning of coastal

ecosystems?

87

Question 8.2:What are the potential consequences

of global change for ecological systems? SST Anomaly (¡C)

0.50

0.25

0

-0.25

-0.50

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Figure 8-4: Top: Annual global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies relative to the 1880-2002 mean based on in situ and satellite measurements. The

warmest annual global SST occurred in 1998. Bottom: Incidences of coral bleaching were influenced by unprecedented SST anomalies in 1998, due to a

severe El Niño event as shown by this satellite retrospective annual composite monthly mean coral bleaching “HotSpot” chart for 1998. A coral bleaching

HotSpot is defined as an SST anomaly above a coral-bleaching threshold SST climatology. HotSpot charts illustrate the magnitude and spatial distribution of

thermal stresses that may contribute to coral bleaching. This chart was derived from the NOAA/NASA 9-km satellite AVHRR (Advanced Very High-Resolution

Radiometer) Oceans Pathfinder SST data set, the most refined available. Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.
Chapter 8. Ecosystems Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• Does climatic variability and change modify effects of other

changes (e.g., pollution, invasive species, and changes in land,

water, and resource use) on ecosystems?

• How will basin-scale changes in physical forcing mechanisms

affect the productivity, distribution, and abundance of plankton,

fish, seabird, and marine mammal populations in coastal marine

ecosystems?

• How do changes in climate and weather (both its variability and

extremes) affect the ecology and epidemiology of infectious

pathogens, dissemination by their vectors, and susceptibility of

the humans, animals, and plants that are their hosts?

• How rapidly might ecosystems, or individual species, move

poleward and to higher elevations in response to regional

warming?

• What are the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration,

warming, and sea-level rise on wetland plant contributions to

soil elevation and shoreline stability?

• How will changes in the hydrologic

cycle affect aquatic, riverine, and

inland wetland ecosystems?

Research Needs

Identifying and quantifying the rates and

consequences of global change for ecological

systems is essential for appropriately

evaluating options for responding to such

changes. Determining the most important

and societally relevant effects of global

change on ecosystems will require

collaboration among physical, biological,

and social scientists and an improved

understanding of complex interactions

between natural and human disturbances

and climatic variability. Near-term

research priorities should include both

ecosystems of special importance to society

(e.g., major crops, commercial forests, and

parks and preserves) and regions where abrupt changes or threshold

responses may occur, such as high-altitude and high-latitude ecosystems

and transitional zones between ecosystems (e.g., forest-grassland,

agriculture-native prairie, ocean boundary currents, coastal zones, and/

or rural-urban interfaces). Field studies should, where appropriate,

share experimental facilities and research sites (see, e.g., Figure 8-5)

with the Carbon Cycle and Water Cycle research elements. Highresolution ocean shoreline topographic data will be needed to

adequately project effects of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems.

Specific research needs include:

• Experiments to study the interactive effects of climatic variability

and change, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, nutrient/

pollution deposition, increased UV-B radiation, invasive species,

and land use on key species and intact ecosystems. Understanding

the effects of warming, increasing CO2 concentration, and

88

Documented effects of environmental changes on net

primary production (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems

Environmental Change Factor Observed Effect on NPP

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration Stimulation

Increasing tropospheric O3 concentration Inhibition

Increasing temperature Stimulation or inhibitiona

Changes in regional hydrologic cycles Inhibition or stimulationa

Increasing atmospheric nitrogen deposition Stimulation or no effecta

Increasing land-surface UV-B radiation No effect or inhibitiona

Combinations of the above Highly uncertain for most combinations and ecosystems

TABLE 8-1

a Depends on other factors and circumstances. For example, warming might stimulate NPP in a presently cool region,

but inhibit NPP in a presently warm region.

Figure 8-5: Scientific user facility for the

study of effects of simultaneous changes in

concentrations of CO2 and O3 on the structure

and functioning of northern hardwood tree

stands. This facility is located near

Rhinelander, Wisconsin, and is supported by

DOE, USDA, NSF, and others. Source: North

Central Station, U.S. Forest Service.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 8. Ecosystems

changing precipitation on the structure and functioning of

ecosystems will require improved projections of the rate of

change of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration.These

improved projections will be provided by the Climate Variability

and Change and Carbon Cycle research elements, and will be

needed to both design experiments and interpret experimental

results.

• Quantification of biomass, species composition, and community

structure of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in relation to

disturbance patterns, through observations, modeling, and

process studies. Information on disturbance patterns will require

inputs from the Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research element

and information on biomass (carbon) pools will require inputs

from the Carbon Cycle research element.

• Experiments and models that can identify threshold responses of

ecosystems and species to potential climatic variability and

change.

• Studies to connect paleontological, historical, contemporary,

and future changes and rates of change in ecosystem structure

and functioning. Long-term data sets and projections of climate

and the spatial distribution and intensity of various land uses will

be required from the Climate Variability and Change and LandUse/Land-Cover Change research elements.

• Maintenance and enhancement of long-term observations to track

changes in seasonal cycles of productivity, species distributions

and abundances, and ecosystem structure. Improved spatial,

spectral, and especially temporal resolution in observing systems

from the Observing and Monitoring research element is

needed to better understand and project ecological processes to

parameterize models and verify model projections.

• Determination of organismal rates of adaptation and the

magnitude of subsequent effects on community structure in

relation to rates of global change.

• Investigations of the link between biodiversity and ecosystem

functions and resulting services.

• Studies of effects of changes in “upstream” ecosystems on

receiving-water ecosystems. Primary linkages are to the Water

Cycle and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research elements.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Data from field experiments quantifying aboveground and

belowground effects of elevated CO2 concentration in combination

with elevated O3 concentration on the structure and functioning

of agricultural [less than 2 years], forest [2-4 years], and aquatic

[beyond 4 years] ecosystems. Some of the data will be obtained

in collaboration with the Carbon Cycle research element.

• Reports describing the potential consequences of global and

climatic changes on selected arctic, alpine, wetland, riverine,

and estuarine and marine ecosystems; selected forest and

rangeland ecosystems; selected desert ecosystems; and the Great

Lakes based on available research findings, to alert decisionmakers

to potential consequences for these ecosystems [2-4 years].

Results will be important input to the Human Contributions

and Responses research element.

• Field experiments (and user facilities) in place to study responses

of ecosystems (including any changes in nutrient cycling) to

combinations of elevated CO2 concentration, warming, and

altered hydrology, with data collection underway. Such facilities

will be essential for evaluating ecosystem models used to assess

effects of climatic variability and change on ecosystem goods

and services (and therefore input to the Human Contributions

and Responses research element), as well as feedbacks to the

climate system and atmospheric composition (and therefore

input to the Climate Variability and Change and Atmospheric

Composition research elements).Where appropriate, these

research facilities will be developed in collaboration with the

Carbon Cycle research element [2-4 years].

• Synthesis of known effects of increasing CO2, warming, and

other factors (e.g., increasing tropospheric O3) on terrestrial

ecosystems based on multi-factor experiments [2-4 years].This

synthesis will be developed with the Carbon Cycle research

element.

• A new suite of indicators of coastal and aquatic ecosystem

change and health based on output from ecosystem models,

long-term observations, and process studies [2-4 years].

• Definition of the initial requirements for observing systems to

monitor the health of ecosystems, to serve as an early warning

system for unanticipated ecosystem changes, and to verify

approaches for modeling and forecasting ecosystem changes

[2-4 years].This will be an important input to the Observing

and Monitoring component of the program.

• Development of data and predictive models determining the

sensitivity of selected organisms and their assemblages to

changes in UV-B radiation and other environmental variables

relative to observations of UV-B radiation in terrestrial, aquatic,

and wetland habitats [beyond 4 years].

• Development of data and predictive models determining the

sensitivity of selected organisms and their assemblages to

contaminants and other environmental variables in terrestrial,

aquatic, and wetland habitats [beyond 4 years].

• Spatially explicit ecosystem models at regional to global scales,

based on data from remote-sensing records and experimental

manipulations focused on effects of interactions among global

change variables, to improve our understanding of contemporary

and historical changes in ecosystem structure and functioning

[beyond 4 years].

• Enhanced understanding of potential consequences of major

global changes on key ecological systems [beyond 4 years].

State of Knowledge

Experiments and observations have demonstrated linkages between

climate and ecological processes, indicating that future changes in

climate could alter the flow of ecosystem goods and services (IPCC,

2001b). Several specific mitigation and adaptation measures have

been identified and evaluated, including integrated land and water

management; genetic selection of plants and livestock; multiple

cropping systems; multiple use of freshwater and terrestrial

ecosystems; programs for protection of key habitats, landscapes,

and/or species; intervention programs [e.g., captive breeding and

(re)introduction programs]; more efficient use of natural resources;

89

Question 8.3:What are the options for sustaining

and improving ecological systems and related goods

and services, given projected global changes?
Chapter 8. Ecosystems Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

and institutional and infrastructure improvements (e.g., market

responses, crop insurance, and water flow and supply management)

(IPCC, 2001c).

It is clear that management practices can affect climate-related

ecosystem goods and services. For example, management can

influence the emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols from

ecosystems; the rate at which ecosystems gain or lose carbon,

nitrogen, phosphorus, and other elements as well as the total

amount of those elements stored; the radiation balance of ecosystems

(i.e., land surface albedo); and the production of goods valued by

humans.While some management strategies have been studied,

society’s knowledge and ability to manage the broad array of

ecosystem goods and services in the context of increasing and

potentially conflicting demands (e.g., increasing food and fiber

production while storing more carbon in soils and reducing CH4

emissions) is very limited.

Illustrative Research Questions

• How can aquatic ecosystems be managed to balance the

production and sustenance of ecosystem services across multiple

demands (e.g., management of rivers to supply freshwater for

drinking, irrigation, recreation, hydropower, and fish),

considering potential effects of interacting environmental

changes?

• How can terrestrial ecosystems such as rangelands, forests,

woodlands, and croplands be managed (e.g., maintaining wildlife

corridors) to balance the production and sustenance of ecosystem

goods and services across multiple demands (e.g., food, fiber,

fuel, fodder, recreation, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycles,

tourism, and flood control), considering the future effects of

interacting environmental changes?

• What options exist for society to preserve genetic diversity;

respond to species migrations, invasions, and/or declines; and

manage changing disease incidence and severity in the face of

global change?

• How can coral reefs be managed for tourism, erosion protection,

refugia for commercially and recreationally important species,

and biodiversity, considering potential global changes?

• How can coastal and estuarine ecosystems be managed to sustain

their productivity and use in the face of existing stresses (e.g.,

pollution, invasive species, and extreme natural events) and

potential global changes?

• What options exist for responding to abrupt changes in ecological

systems?

• What are the effects of management practices on global and

regional environments (e.g., atmospheric chemistry, water supply,

and water quality), nitrogen cycling, and the health, productivity,

and resilience of ecosystems?

Research Needs

Much ecosystem management for the foreseeable future will proceed

with imperfect knowledge about the effects of multiple global

change processes and about fundamental aspects of ecosystem

structure and functioning. Routine monitoring (see, e.g., Figure 8-6),

scientific evaluation, and feedback from managers could enable

adaptive shifts in management strategies as knowledge about an

ecological system grows, and at the same time will provide important

opportunities for scientists to test hypotheses about ecosystem

responses to environmental change. Substantial improvements in

modeling capabilities are also needed to develop and deploy effective

options to maintain and enhance the supply of critical goods and

services and to evaluate alternative management options under

changing environmental conditions. Modeling alternative management

90 26 September 2002

27 September 200227 November 2002

Figure 8-6: Brightly colored waters in the Gulf of Mexico indicate the presence of sediment, detritus, and blooms of marine plants called phytoplankton (noted

by arrow). The blooms may be caused, or enhanced, by changes in land management “upstream” and/or changes in regional climate. By late November, this

bloom appears to have subsided. Images are true-color Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products. This type of remote-sensing

technology is essential to monitoring and quantifying ecosystem and landscape states and changes. Source: NASA MODIS Ocean Team.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 8. Ecosystems

options will require evaluation of the influence of societal demands

on ecosystems.

Specific research needs include:

• Improve understanding of causal mechanisms that drive complex

changes in ecological systems, including robust indicators and

likely rates of change, to develop predictive management tools

such as ecological forecasting models using socioeconomic data

as an input.

• Identify ecological systems susceptible to abrupt environmental

changes with potentially significant (positive or negative)

impacts on goods and services in order to develop adequate

mitigation and adaptation responses.

• Evaluate the use of ecological information and projections in

decisionmaking.

• Apply information on water quantity, quality, and delivery from

the Water Cycle research element and frequency of extreme

events from the Climate Variability and Change research element

to evaluate ecosystem performance and management options.

• Develop and evaluate local- to regional-scale ecosystem-climate

models.

• Assess the direct and indirect ecological effects and economic

costs of management practices through regular monitoring,

evaluation, and experimentation with a goal of enabling adaptive

shifts in management.

• Explore obstacles to the implementation of ecosystem

management strategies.

• Understand consequences of harvest practices in marine fisheries

on changes in the age structure of the harvested populations, the

structure and productivity of fisheries ecosystems, and responses

of fisheries to global change.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• For forests, agricultural systems, rangelands, wetlands, fisheries,

and coral reefs, conduct preliminary comparisons of the

effectiveness of selected management practices in selected regions

focusing on greenhouse gas exchange, health, productivity, and

biodiversity of the targeted ecosystems and their goods and

services under changing environmental conditions [2-4 years].

• Initiation of development of decision support tools relevant to

regions where abrupt or threshold ecological responses may

91

Ocean: Chlorophyll a Concentration (mg/m3) Land: Normalized Difference Land Vegetation Index

>.01 .02.03.05 .1 .2 .3 .5 1 2 3 5 1015 20 30 50 Maximum Minimum

Figure 8-7: Summer (top) and

winter (bottom) composite of

global ocean chlorophyll a

concentration (a surrogate for

phytoplankton biomass) and

terrestrial vegetation “greenness”

(a measure of potential

productivity) from September

1997 to December 2001. Some

responses to global change

may be evident on extremely

large spatial scales, requiring

global-level observing systems

and international collaborations

for detecting and interpreting

changes. When evaluated over

time, composite photographs

such as this may reveal globalscale changes in the spatial

distribution, structure, and

functioning of ecosystems.

Source: SeaWiFS Project,

NASA/Goddard Space Flight

Center and ORBIMAGE.
Chapter 8. Ecosystems Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

collaboration activities, including those sponsored wholly or in part

by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), such

as the Global Climate and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) project,

the Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECaFS)

project, the Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ)

project, the Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS), the

Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) program, the

Global Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Bloom

(GEOHAB) program, and the Biospheric Aspects of the

Hydrological Cycle (BAHC) project. Also important are the

Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), the Global

Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), the Global Climate

Observing System (GCOS), the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment,

and the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER)

network.

92

occur, especially high-altitude and high-latitude ecosystems and

transitional zones between ecosystems (i.e., ecotones) such as

forest-grassland, agriculture-native prairie, riparian and coastal

zones, and rural-urban interfaces [2-4 years].

• Data sets and spatially explicit models for examining effects of

management and policy decisions on a wide range of ecosystems

to predict the efficacy and tradeoffs of management strategies at

varying scales [beyond 4 years]. A subset of these products will

be developed in collaboration with the Carbon Cycle research

element.

Interagency and international facilities and mechanisms must be in

place to process, archive, and distribute the data collected and to

generate relevant products. Given the nature of global change,

research must span large spatial scales (from small experimental

plots to global satellite image mosaics; see, e.g., Figure 8-7) and

long time scales (paleontological data from ice cores, tree rings, and

fossil pollen to near-real-time forecast models), and monitor a wide

range of variables important for characterizing the state of ecosystems.

National and international observing systems at multiple spatial

scales are needed to develop a consistent record of environmental

change over time. Data from such observing systems would provide

inputs to models and allow evaluation and improvement of model

performance.The resulting large collections of ecological and

environmental data will necessitate large databases and new

approaches to data integration and analysis and will require new and

enhanced national and international partnerships.

Future experimental and observing systems may rely on networks

of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem observatories within particular

biomes or larger ecoregions.They should link together efficiently

and build on existing networks of field stations, experimental forests

and ranges, environmental and resource monitoring programs, and

long-term ecological research sites sponsored by many governmental

and nongovernmental organizations, some of which have lengthy

records (many in non-machine-readable forms) of ecological and

environmental data.

Scientists conducting research under the Ecosystems research

element of the CCSP will participate in the planning of international

Lead Authors

Susan Herrod Julius, USEPA

Steve Shafer, USDA

Jeff Amthor, DOE

Paula Bontempi, NASA

Marilyn Buford, USDA

John Calder, NOAA

Stan Coloff, USGS

Susan Conard, USDA

Sara Mirabilio, NOAA

Knute Nadelhoffer, NSF

Bill Peterson, NOAA

Don Scavia, NOAA

Bryce Stokes, USDA

Woody Turner, NASA

Contributors

Larry Adams, USDA

Nancy Cavallaro, USDA

Pat Megonigal, Smithsonian Institute

Jessica Orrego, CCSPO

Catriona Rogers, USEPA

Chuck Trees, NASA

CHAPTER 8 AUTHORS

National and International Partnerships
CHAPTER CONTENTS

Question 9.1:What are the magnitudes,

interrelationships, and significance of the primary

human drivers of and their potential impact on

global environmental change?

Question 9.2:What are the current and potential

future impacts of global environmental variability

and change on human welfare, what factors influence

the capacity of human societies to respond to

change, and how can resilience be increased and

vulnerability reduced?

Question 9.3: How can the methods and capabilities

for societal decisionmaking under conditions of

complexity and uncertainty about global environmental

variability and change be enhanced? 

Question 9.4:What are the potential human

health effects of global environmental change, and

what climate, socioeconomic, and environmental

information is needed to assess the cumulative risk

to health from these effects?

National and International Partnerships

CHAPTER

93

Human activities play an important part in virtually all

natural systems and are forces for change in the environment

at local, regional, and even global scales. Social, economic,

and cultural systems are changing in a world that is more

populated, urban, and interconnected than ever. Such

large-scale changes increase the resilience of some groups

while increasing the vulnerability of others. A more

integrated understanding of the complex interactions of

human societies and the Earth system is essential if we are

to identify vulnerable systems and pursue options that take

advantage of opportunities and enhance resilience. Basic

social science research into human-environment interactions

provides a foundation for applied analyses and modeling of

human behavior at its interface with global environmental

change.

The need for understanding human contributions and

responses—sometimes referred to as “human dimensions”

of global change—motivates the research questions in this

chapter and elsewhere in this plan. Human dimensions

research includes studies of potential technological, social,

economic, and cultural drivers of global change, and how

these and other aspects of human systems may affect adaptation and

the consequences of change for society. Much of this research is

“cross-cutting”—integral to explorations of causes and impacts of

changes in atmospheric composition, climate, the water cycle, the

carbon cycle, ecosystems, land use and land cover, and other global

systems. Research on human contributions and responses integrates

information from different research elements to establish baseline

characterizations of man acting in and reacting to his environment.

The complex interactions of multiple environmental stressors on

human activities must be examined. It is widely acknowledged

that human dimensions research has special challenges associated

with the cross-disciplinary nature of its topics and with the mix

of qualitative and quantitative data and analyses employed in its

pursuit.

Across the range of human dimensions research there is a particularly

strong need for the integration of social, economic, and health data

with environmental data. Such integration requires data from physical,

biological, social, and health disciplines on compatible temporal and

spatial scales, to support the synthesis of data for research and to

support decisionmaking.There is an especially critical need for georeferenced data.

Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change 9 
Chapter 9.Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

understanding of many of the factors that affect environmentally

significant consumption at the household level. Important advances

have been made in understanding the effects of economic

transformation—for instance, how the growth of the service sector

in urban areas contributes both to social wealth and vulnerability of

human settlements. Similarly, research on technological change has

helped to identify trends in innovation, efficiency, and expanded

living standards, and their implications for natural and depletable

resources.

Illustrative Research Questions

Research questions related to human drivers span a range of topics,

including:What are the key processes and trends associated with

population growth and demographic change, management of natural

resources (including land and water), the development of advanced

technologies, and trade and global economic activity? How can

improved understanding of these issues be used to improve scenarios

and projections of global change? Who are the principal actors, both

individuals and institutions, and what are the key factors, such as

households, markets, property and land tenure, and government

policies and practices? How can researchers develop appropriate

scenarios and link them to decisionmaking frameworks? How can

stakeholder involvement be used to help determine the research

agenda? In addition, questions specific to population and technological

change and the role of trade and economic activity include:

• Population growth and demographic change

– How do population growth, composition, distribution, and

dynamics (fertility, mortality, migration, and household

change) affect the sustainability of energy and land use,

economic activity, land cover, the climate system, and other

global environmental systems?

– How is the relationship between population dynamics and

environmental change affected by the scale at which populationenvironmental linkages are measured (e.g., the plot, the

community, the state, the region, the nation)?

– How do people use information and form perceptions about

potential or actual global environmental changes, along with

other social, economic, and political considerations, to make

decisions about production, consumption (including use of

natural resources), and mobility (including migration)?

– What are the roles played by institutions in structuring the

activities that drive global environmental change?

• Technological change

– What are the drivers, especially institutional factors that induce

technological innovation and adoption of new technologies?

What influences the transfer of technology from region to

region or country to country? How does technological

innovation and transfer impact systemic environmental

change and figure in adaptation and mitigation strategies?

– How can research that identifies viable technology options

be modeled as policy options?

– What can be projected about the effectiveness, cost, and

environmental and health effects of alternative energy and

mitigation technologies, including sequestration options?

– How can this research contribute to efforts to develop

mitigation technology options by, for example, placing values

on such items as temporary carbon storage and the availability

of limited resources such as land and water?

94

A broad research agenda for human contributions and responses has

been identified in a series of national and international reports,

including the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC, 2001a,b,c,d) and a series of focused reports

and monographs from the National Research Council (NRC,

1999a,e, 2001c,e).The NRC report Climate Change Science:An

Analysis of Some Key Questions concluded that: “In order to address

the consequences of climate change and better serve the Nation’s

decisionmakers, the research enterprise dealing with environmental

change and environment-society interactions must be enhanced.”

Such an enterprise should include, “...support of interdisciplinary

research that couples physical, chemical, biological, and human

systems” (NRC, 2001a).This chapter draws from these reports and

from priority areas identified by the research community through

federal research programs.

Two overarching questions for research on the human contributions

and responses to global change are:

• How do humans and human societies drive changes in the global

environment?

• How do humans prepare for and respond to global environmental

change?

These questions frame the human dimensions research outlined in

the four key questions that follow.

State of Knowledge

Human drivers of global environmental change include consumption

of energy and natural resources, technological and economic choices,

culture, and institutions.The effects of these drivers are seen in

population growth and movement, changes in consumption, de- or

reforestation, land-use change, and toleration or regulation of

pollution.The IPCC (IPCC, 2000 a,b, 2001a,b,c,d), the NRC

(NRC, 1999a, 2001a), and additional U.S. studies have summarized

social science research on these drivers in the specific context of

climate change, and the International Human Dimensions

Programme has contributed to this body of knowledge. For example,

research has pointed to population changes (including an aging

population in the United States with rapid growth of human

settlements, especially in the South,West, and coastal areas) that

have affected consumption patterns and other drivers of global

environmental change.

Research into the human drivers of global change has focused on

changes in land use and energy use. But there is also a growing body

of work on fundamental socioeconomic processes that drive human

use of the environment (e.g., changes in population densities,

advances in technology, the emergence of new institutional

structures). Furthermore, current research on sustainability

emphasizes the roles played by societies in driving global

environmental change. Recent research has also improved our

Question 9.1:What are the magnitudes,

interrelationships, and significance of primary human

drivers of and their potential impact on global

environmental change?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 9.Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change

• Trade and global economic activity

– What influences the movement of goods and services

domestically and from one country to another? How does

movement of goods and services impact global environmental

change?

– How do operational and technological changes affect economic

productivity and energy use?

Research Needs

Key needs have been identified, including:

• Development of a connection to decision support capabilities by

improving the scientific information that helps to inform the

policy process.

• Development of more coherent and plausible scenarios with

projections of social, economic, and technology variables. Here,

linkages to outputs from the Climate Change Technology

Program (CCTP) will be made.

• Development of integrated assessment models with the ability

to better analyze the effects (social, economic, and health) of

measures directed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and that

include non-market submodels for the analysis of quantitative

and qualitative data related to human health and well-being.

• Development of integrated assessment models that introduce

new energy and carbon sequestration technologies (including

technologies under consideration in the CCTP) and incorporate

new knowledge about innovation and diffusion.

• Development of the capability to study the economic and trade

effects of various mitigation options that differ in complex ways,

both within and among countries, including broad policy

approaches (e.g., emissions targets, technology subsidies,

voluntary national goals) and means of implementation (e.g.,

voluntary programs, incentives, taxes, cap and trade systems,

and quantity constraints).

• Assessment of the full costs and benefits (including productivity

impacts) of environmental policy and technology choices

(mitigation and adaptation) that affect human well-being at

different scales, including the individual or household level.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Research in this area is expected to improve our understanding

of how human societies drive global environmental change.

Inputs on potential future human drivers of change are required

for Ecosystems,Water Cycle, and Carbon Cycle research.

Available information will be reassessed for its relevance and

contribution to interdisciplinary studies of human-induced

environmental change [less than 2 years].

• Scenarios will be strengthened by an improved understanding of

the interdependence among economic growth; population

growth, composition, distribution, and dynamics (including

migration); energy consumption in different sectors (e.g., electric

power generation, transportation, residential heating and

cooling); advancements in technologies; and pollutant emissions

[less than 4 years] (a benefit to the Carbon Cycle research

element).

• Evaluations will be developed of the economic opportunities to

reduce greenhouse gas emissions or increase sequestration in the

agricultural and forestry sectors [2-4 years].

• Structured methods will be developed to define the connections

and tradeoffs among economic development, technological

change, and human well-being at multiple scales and at the

intersection of complex institutional arrangements

[beyond 4 years].

Human Contributions and Responses products will provide needed

inputs to the Carbon Cycle and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

research elements related to changes in energy consumption,

technology utilization, and adaptation policies (see also Question 9.2).

State of Knowledge

For the purpose of this question, “global environmental variability

and change” includes climate variability and change and related sealevel rise.These environmental changes need to be analyzed in the

context of other natural and social system stresses, such as land-use

and land-cover change, population changes and migrations, and

global economic restructuring.There has been significant progress

in analyzing and modeling regional vulnerabilities and possibilities

for adaptation, including in the context of multiple stresses.

Progress has been made in understanding how society adapts to

seasonal climate variability and, by extension, how it may adapt to

potential longer term climate change (IPCC, 2001b).

The state of global change impact and adaptation research varies,

depending on the nature of the impact, the scale of the analysis, and

the region of the world. For most types of impacts, this field of

inquiry has advanced from modeling direct impacts on natural and

human systems (e.g., crops, forests, water flows, coastal infrastructure)

to analyses of how people might alter specific activities in reaction

to changing climate, and for several types of impacts, anticipatory

responses have been investigated as well. For example, with respect

to sea-level rise, the direct impacts and possible responses are fairly

well established for the United States. However, a high priority for

research concerns the environmental impacts of adaptive responses

in the future.

On a global scale, considerable gaps exist in understanding, modeling,

and quantifying the sensitivity and vulnerability of human systems

to global change and measuring the capacity of human systems to

adapt. For instance, little is known about the effectiveness of applying

adaptation experiences with past and current climate variability and

extreme events to the realm of climate change adaptation; nor

about how this information could be used to improve estimates of

the feasibility, effectiveness, and costs and benefits of adaptation to

long-term change. Gaps also exist in understanding differences in

adaptive capacity across regions of the world and different

socioeconomic groups (IPCC, 2001b). Also less well known are the

roles that institutional change and consumption patterns in the

95

Question 9.2:What are the current and potential

future impacts of global environmental variability

and change on human welfare, what factors influence

the capacity of human societies to respond to change,

and how can resilience be increased and vulnerability

reduced?
Chapter 9.Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

future will play in the capacity of society to prepare for and respond

to global changes.

Illustrative Research Questions

• What factors determine the vulnerability of human systems to

climate variability and change, and how can vulnerability be

reduced?

• What factors determine the vulnerability of natural systems to

the adaptive measures that people may implement in response to

global change?

• How are climate variability, trends in climate, and sea-level rise

likely to affect resource management (e.g., water, fish, agriculture,

forestry, transportation, energy supplies), urban planning, coastal

zone management, and the effectiveness of federal environmental

and infrastructure programs?

• What are the economic and social costs and benefits of current

climate variability and longer term climate change and what are

the market and non-market tradeoffs, feasibility, and effectiveness

of potential adaptation and/or mitigation options?

• To what extent will consumption patterns (e.g., per capita water

consumption) and/or land-use changes influence the vulnerability

of human systems to the impacts of climate variability and change?

• How may methods be refined to accurately assess the combined

impacts of the full range of potential climate change, water

quality and availability, land use, sea-level rise, and ecosystems

on human welfare?

Research Needs

Research needs include empirical studies and model-based simulation

studies of the influence of social and economic factors on vulnerability

and adaptive capacity in households, organizations, and communities;

assessments and economic analyses of the potential impacts of climate

variability and change (including using products from the Ecosystems

research element); retrospective analyses of the consequences of

surprising shifts in climate and the ability of society to respond to

negative impacts and potential opportunities; and studies analyzing

the factors that affect adaptive capacity in the context of multiple

social and natural system stresses (climate change, land-use change,

population change and movements, sea-level rise, changes in political

institutions, technology gains, and economic restructuring).

Much of this research will need to be place-based analysis at regional

and local scales in order to capture the complexities of the humanenvironment interface and the adaptive strategies of individuals,

industries, institutions, and communities (requiring connection to the

place-based research planned through the Decision Support element).

Comparative studies at different locations and in different

socioeconomic contexts are critical. Longitudinal data sets need to be

developed, as do data sets that track adaptation strategies across time

(linkage to the Observing and Monitoring working group is key).

More extensive research crossing social science disciplines as well as

research integrating social and natural system components is needed

for improved understanding and

modeling of impacts and adaptation

and their feedback to possible

mitigation efforts. Integrating

across these connections is

complex and will require methods

for integrating qualitative and

quantitative data and analyses as

well as improvements in linking

component models. Use of

qualitative and quantitative

approaches is critical if we are to

make progress at a range of scales.

Specifically, attention needs to be

paid to the associated costs and

benefits of adaptation strategies,

strategies for mitigating the

impacts of global change on different

economic sectors and people in

different locations and economic

brackets, market and non-market

valuation of positive and negative

impacts, the possibility of new

economic instruments for responding

to global change, and the role of

public and private institutions and

public policies in influencing adaptive

capacity (IPCC, 2001b). Research

could include input from studies of

mitigation and adaptation measures

undertaken by the Ecosystems

research element.

96

Health Impacts

Weather-Related Morbidity and Mortality

Infectious Disease

Air Pollution Respiratory Effects

Agricultural Impacts

Crop Yields

Irrigation Demands

Forest Impacts

Forest Composition

Geographic Range

Change in Water Quality

Water Resources Impacts

Change in Water Supply

Change in Water Quality

Species and Natural Lands

Loss of Habitat and Species

Shift in Ecological Zones

Coastal Impacts

Beach Erosion

Inundation of Coastal Land

Cost to Defend Coastal Communities

Climate Changes

Temperature

Precipitation

Sea-Level Rise

Figure 9-1: Potential climate variability and change impacts.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 9.Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

Research on these questions can be expected to improve analytical

methods and models of how climate variability and change and

sea-level rise combined with socioeconomic changes are likely to

affect decisionmaking in water management, agriculture, forest

management, transportation infrastructure, urban areas, coastal

areas, public health, and other climate-sensitive sectors in the

United States and developing countries.The research will enable

decisionmakers in both the public and private sectors to make more

enlightened choices regarding the nature and timing of actions to

undertake in response to the challenges and opportunities associated

with anticipated climate variability, potential climate change, and

sea-level rise.

Some expected products/milestones include:

• Improved characterization and understanding of vulnerability

and adaptation based on analyses of societal adjustment to climate

variability and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts [2-4 years].

• Identification of adaptation strategies effective for managing the

impacts of seasonal and year-to-year climate variability that could

prove useful for adaptation to projected longer term climate

change [beyond 4 years].

• Elevation maps depicting areas vulnerable to sea-level rise and

planning maps depicting how state and local governments could

respond to sea-level rise [less than 2 years].

• Assessments of the potential economic impacts of climate

change on the producers and consumers of food and fiber

products [2-4 years].

• Estimates of the value of the ancillary benefits (e.g., enhanced

wildlife habitat and improved water quality) that could result

from implementing various mitigation activities within the

forestry sector [2-4 years].

• Assessments of how coastal environmental programs can be

improved to adapt to sea-level rise while enhancing economic

growth [2-4 years].

State of Knowledge

Decisionmaking is rife with uncertainties including risks of irreversible

and/or non-linear changes that may be met with insufficient or

excessive responses whose consequences may cascade across

generations.The difficulties associated with characterizing and

explaining uncertainty have become increasingly salient given the

interest of policymakers in addressing global environmental change.

Uncertainties arise from a number of factors, including problems

with data, problems with models, lack of knowledge of important

underlying relationships, imprecise representation of uncertainty,

statistical variation and measurement error, and subjective judgment

(IPCC, 2001b,d).

Illustrative Research

Questions

How can methods or approaches be

improved:

• For representing, analyzing,

describing, and communicating

uncertainties and for evaluating and

addressing scientific disagreements

about the nature and extent of

risks?

• For understanding the costs (market

and non-market) and opportunities

(societal, organizational, and

individual) associated with global

climatic variability and change? 

• For representing how individuals,

organizations, and societies make

choices regarding risks whose

consequences are long-term and

uncertain? 

• For evaluating and comparing the

effectiveness of different approaches

to modeling decisionmaking?

• For understanding how public and

private decisionmaking impacts

human health and the natural

environment?

97

FY04 CCRI Priority -

Decisionmaking Under Uncertainty

The Climate Change Research Initiative

(CCRI) will leverage existing U.S.

Global Change Research Program

(USGCRP) efforts to provide structured

information to inform national, regional,

and local discussions about possible

global change causes, impacts, and

mitigation and adaptation strategies.

The CCRI will provide continuing

support for a set of interdisciplinary

centers focusing on Decisionmaking Under

Uncertainty associated with climate change

and variability.These centers, which

should be established in FY04 following

a special competition, will conduct

fundamental research on decisionmaking

associated with climate change and

variability.The centers are expected to

advance basic understanding about

decision processes dealing with issues

such as inter-temporal choice, risk

perception, hazards and disaster

reduction, opportunities, trade-offs,

equity, framing, and probabilistic

reasoning associated with uncertainty.

The centers will develop tools that

people, organizations, and governments

can use to better understand the risks

and uncertainties associated with climate

variability and change and the options

they have to address them. In order to

do this, they will develop and disseminate

tangible products for researchers,

decisionmakers and other relevant

stakeholders and make them readily

accessible through a range of media.

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS

AND RESPONSES TO

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

BOX 9-1 

Question 9.3: How can the methods and capabilities

for societal decisionmaking under conditions of

complexity and uncertainty about global

environmental variability and change be enhanced?
Chapter 9.Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• For designing processes that combine scientific analyses with the

policy deliberations and judgments of decisionmakers?

• For disseminating, communicating, and evaluating climate forecast

information for use by decisionmakers?

Research Needs

Associated research needs include analysis of decision processes to

identify what information on global environmental variability and

change is most useful and at what stage in the decision process that

the information is needed.This work will be done in collaboration

with the Decision Support Resources development described in

Chapter 11.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

• Research on these questions will enable the development of

assessments of the kind of knowledge and information needed

by different decisionmakers and stakeholders in order to

enhance decisionmaking associated with climate change, and will

produce decision support resources [beyond 4 years].

• Research centers will be expected to facilitate interactions

among researchers and relevant decisionmakers and stakeholders

[less than 2 years]; provide educational opportunities for U.S.

students and faculty [less than 2 years]; increase understanding

of the types of information needed by decisionmakers [less than

2 years]; develop tools that people, organizations, and governments

can use to better understand the risks associated with climate

variability and change and the options they have to address

those risks [2-4 years]; and increase basic understanding of

decisionmaking processes associated with climate change and

variability [2-4 years].

• In addition to the advancement of basic understanding and

modeling of decisionmaking, the program expects to develop

improved modeling frameworks that better link general circulation,

ecological, and economic models of the agricultural and forestry

sectors [2-4 years].

• Recommendations will be developed for producing,

communicating, and disseminating climate information and its

associated uncertainties to resource managers (e.g., farmers,

forest landowners, drought policy planners, water utilities) and

urban planners at local to national levels. Integration with

Decision Support efforts will be important as will drawing on

communication and dissemination tools developed by the Water

Cycle research element [2-4 years].

State of Knowledge

It is well established that human health is linked to environmental

conditions, and that changes in the natural environment may have

subtle, or dramatic, effects on health.Timely knowledge of these

effects may support our public health infrastructure in devising and

implementing strategies to compensate or respond to these effects.

Over the past decade, several research and agenda-setting exercises

have called for continued and expanded research and development of

methods in this area (WAG, 1997; NRC, 1999a,d, 2001c; EHP, 2001;

IPCC, 2001b). Given the complex interactions among physical,

biological, and human systems, this research must be highly

interdisciplinary, well integrated, and span the breadth from

fundamental research to operations. A multi-agency interdisciplinary

research effort to examine the linkages across these sectors is in

place with research focusing on global and developing country

impacts, and on the effects of simultaneous environmental and

economic shifts on human health and well-being.

Federally supported research has thus far provided information on a

broad range of health effects of global change, including the adverse

effects of ozone, atmospheric particles and aeroallergens, ultraviolet

(UV) radiation, vector- and water-borne diseases, and heat-related

illnesses (see Figure 9-2). Research continues to improve understanding

of the potential impact of climate variability on certain infectious

diseases, and researchers are developing and evaluating tools and

information products for anticipating and managing any such

impacts that capitalize on the enormous protections afforded by

wealth and the public health infrastructure. However, many questions

remain unanswered.

Illustrative Research Questions

• What are the impacts of changes in water quantity and quality,

temperature, ecosystems, land use, and climate on infectious

disease and what is the relative importance of these impacts

compared to other socioeconomic and technological factors?

• What are the impacts of atmospheric and climatic changes on the

health effects associated with ambient air quality and UV radiation?

• What are the health effects and effective preparedness and

response strategies associated with temperature extremes and

with extreme weather events?

• What are the best methods for assessing known and potential

climate-related health impacts and for developing and evaluating

useful tools and information products to enhance public health

and support decisionmaking?

• How can we improve the capacity of public health and societal

infrastructure to prevent, detect, and effectively respond to

health impacts that may be associated with climate change? 

• How can the incorporation of health impacts and trends into

climate change scenarios improve tools for decisionmaking at

various time scales? 

Research Needs

Research needs include:

• Work on improved understanding of the health effects of UV

radiation, including exposure across regions and populations,

risk awareness, and early detection.

• Initiation of a temporally and spatially compatible long-term

field study, empirical analysis, and integrated modeling effort of

the physical, biological, and social factors affecting the potential

impact of climate variability and change on public health issues

of national importance.

• Research on the climatic effects of temperature on air quality,

particularly in urban heat islands and other regional settings, and

the potential health consequences.

98

Question 9.4:What are the potential human health

effects of global environmental change, and what

climate, socioeconomic, and environmental

information is needed to assess the cumulative risk to

health from these effects?
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 9.Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change

• Research on the effect of seasonal-to-interannual climate variation

on public health, especially at a regional scale, and the integration

of this information into decisionmaking processes.

• Research on preventing and reducing the adverse health impacts

of extreme weather events.

• Research on prevention and control of infectious diseases that

might increase in incidence as a result of climate change.

• Research on the regional control and treatment of vector- and

water-borne diseases (this work should be linked to the

Ecosystems research element).

• Economic analysis of the prevention, control, and treatment

strategies for potential public health impacts associated with

climate variability and change.

• Studies on the costs and benefits to public health of mitigation

strategies for greenhouse gas emissions.

A parallel need exists to develop additional appropriate tools and

methods for assessing and adapting to potential health outcomes,

and for evaluating the impact of research, the effectiveness of Earth

science information and products, the methods for communicating

that information, and the systematic identification of knowledge

gaps and feedback to the research communities.

Milestones, Products, and Payoffs

Products from this area include operational tools, research to support

innovative institutional arrangements and processes, and research

results that may be used by decisionmakers. Expected milestones,

products, and payoffs include:

• Additional tools for preventing and managing the public health

threat of infectious diseases [2-4 years].

• Assessments of the potential health effects of combined exposures

to climatic and other environmental factors (e.g., air pollution,

and including input from the Atmospheric Composition research

element) [beyond 4 years].

• A multi-agency joint award for competitive grants to support

research on climate variability and health [2-4 years and beyond].

99

Ecologically Mediated

Vector-Borne

Diseases

Threatened

Food Supply

Marine and WaterBorne Diseases

Air

Pollution

Droughts, Floods,

and Storms

Urban Heat

Island Effect

Sea-Level Rise

Climate Change

El Nio

Skin Cancers

Ocular Cataracts

Immuno-Suppression

Overcrowding

Poor Sanitation

Infectious Disease

Impacts on Fisheries

Ozone Depletion

Disaster-Related Death and Injury

Lost Public Health Infrastructure

Heat-Related Mortality

Respiratory

Dengue and DHF

Encephalitis

Malaria

Lyme Disease

Yellow Fever

Malnutrition

Immuno-Suppression

Toxic Algae

Cholera

Diarrheal Diseases

UV-B Radiation

Figure 9-2:

Possible

pathways of

public health

impacts from

climate change.

For more

information,

see Annex C.
Chapter 9.Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• The next phase of health sector assessments to understand the

potential consequences of global change for human health in the

United States, especially for at-risk demographic and geographic

subpopulations [2-4 years].

The study of human contributions and responses to global change

within the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has ties to a

number of national and international programs beyond those

represented among the CCSP member agencies, including the

International Human Dimensions Programme, the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the World Health

Organization, the Pan American Health Organization, Environment

Canada, Health Canada, the Climate Change Technology Program,

the National Research Council, the Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention, the National Institute of Environmental Health

Sciences, the National Institute for Child Health and Human

Development, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious

Diseases, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics,

and other federal agencies and programs, and to the International

Research Institute for Climate Prediction and the Inter-American

Institute for Global Change Research (see Chapter 15).

Collaborations between the federal agencies involved in global

change research and the abovementioned organizations include

co-sponsorship of scientific workshops and conferences, efforts to

set scientific agendas in research areas of mutual interest, and

collaborative assessments of the state of knowledge.

Furthermore, numerous collaborative research projects between

scientists in the United States and other countries are underway.

As examples, U.S. scientists collaborate with developing country

scientists to analyze coping strategies and the use of climate

information in the face of year-to-year climate variability. In addition,

U.S. researchers in the field of economics and other areas associated

with creating decisionmaking frameworks collaborate through

institutions such as Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum

(EMF). For example, an annual EMF meeting of specialists in

integrated assessment modeling and related disciplines, such as

climate science, biology, and health, has generated a great many

successful research partnerships across both countries and

disciplines.

The scientific community has called for strengthening international

cooperation and coordination related to human contributions and

responses research, particularly in the areas of the potential impacts

of climate on human welfare and resource management, vulnerability

assessments, and adaptation research. Progress depends on advances

in these areas, as well as in improvements in climate modeling,

observations, and our understanding of the integrated climate system

and associated socioeconomic and environmental responses.

Cooperation should include the collection and archiving of social

and economic data, as well as exchanging methodologies and

research insights.

100

National and International Partnerships

Lead Authors

Janet Gamble, USEPA

Caitlin Simpson, NOAA

Contributors

Mitch Baer, DOE

Tom Baerwald, NSF

Nancy Beller-Simms, UCAR

Rebecca Clark, NIH

Cheryl Eavey, NSF

Mary Gant, HHS

Cliff Hickman, USFS

Bill Hohenstein, USDA

John Houghton, DOE

Carol Jones, USDA

David Kirtland, USGS

Elizabeth Malone, PNNL

Melinda Moore, HHS

Claudia Nierenberg, NOAA

Robert O’Connor, NSF

Warren Piver, NIH

Joel Scheraga, USEPA

Jim Titus, USEPA

Juli Trtanj, UCAR

CHAPTER 9 AUTHORS
This chapter introduces goals and objectives intended to

provide accelerated scientific improvements in climate and

climate impact models responsive to the needs of the

Climate Change Science Program’s (CCSP) scientific

research and decision support activities.

Models are essential tools for synthesizing observations,

theory, and experimental results to investigate how the Earth

system works and how it is affected by human activities.

Models can be used in both a retrospective sense, to test

the accuracy of modeled changes in Earth system forcing

and response by comparing model results with observations

of past change, and in a prognostic sense, for calculating the

response of the Earth system to projected future forcing.

Comprehensive climate system models provide the primary

quantitative means to integrate scientific understanding of the

many components of the climate system and, thus, are the

principal tools available for making quantitative projections.

The CCSP modeling strategy consists of three goals:

Improve the scientific basis of climate and climate impacts

models; provide the infrastructure and capacity necessary

to support a scientifically rigorous and responsive U.S.

climate modeling activity; and coordinate and accelerate

climate modeling activities and provide relevant decision

support information on a timely basis. In order to achieve

these goals, three modeling arenas will be implemented:

(1) diverse and disparate research activities that represent

new process understanding in models; (2) assimilation and integration

efforts that employ new types of observations and tools and nextgeneration understanding and model coupling; and (3) “high-end”

climate models run for scenarios required in periodic scientific

assessments or to achieve higher resolutions.

The CCSP strategy envisions two complementary streams of climate

modeling activities.The first is principally a research activity, which

will maintain strong ties to the global change and computational

science research communities to rapidly incorporate new knowledge

into a comprehensive climate and Earth system modeling capability.

Closely associated with the research activity, but distinct from it, will

be the sustained and timely delivery of predictive model products

that are required for assessments and other decision support needs.

CCSP will ensure that a productive partnership is maintained

between product-driven modeling activities and the discovery-driven

modeling research program that will underpin its credibility and

future success.

In his 11 June 2001 speech, the President asked his Administration

to work to “develop state-of-the-art climate modeling that will help

us better understand the causes and impacts of climate change.” In

response to this directive, the program is addressing the following

overarching question:

How can we most effectively accelerate the development,

testing, and application of the best possible scientifically

based climate and climate impact models to serve scientific

research and decision support needs? 

CHAPTER

101

CHAPTER CONTENTS

Goal 1: Improve the scientific basis of climate and

climate impacts models.

Goal 2: Provide the infrastructure and capacity

necessary to support a scientifically rigorous and

responsive U.S. climate modeling activity.

Goal 3: Coordinate and accelerate climate modeling

activities and provide relevant decision support

information on a timely basis.

Modeling Strategy 10
Chapter 10.Modeling Strategy Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Near-Term Priorities

• Because of the highly interdisciplinary and complex nature of

climate processes in general, understanding and modeling

feedbacks is a challenging research task.The program will give

high priority to research conducted under the research elements

aimed at understanding and modeling the most important

known feedback processes (see Chapter 4, Question 4.1), with

the goal of better quantifying and reducing uncertainties in

climate predictions and projections.

• CCSP-supported climate modeling centers will work closely

with scientists to use observations and research advances to

improve modeling capability and provide more useful products

for decision support.The knowledge transfer will be enabled and

accelerated by Climate Process and Modeling Teams (CPTs), a

new paradigm for CCSP climate modeling and applications

research (CPTs are discussed later in this chapter and in Box 4-1).

Enhanced understanding and improved representation in models of

the processes that influence climate will improve confidence in

model forecasts and projections. Reductions in uncertainty will be

measured by the degree to which differences between the major

climate models as well as differences between observations and

relevant model fields are reduced.

Objective 1.2: Develop the next generation of global

climate models through the addition of more

complete representations of coupled interactive

atmospheric chemistry, terrestrial and marine

ecosystems, biogeochemical cycling, and middle

atmospheric processes

Past emphasis has been on the development and testing of physical

aspects of coupled atmospheric and ocean general circulation models

(GCMs).This occurred primarily because climate models have their

roots in numerical weather prediction models (atmospheric GCMs

with some ocean coupling that treat primarily physical processes),

and the available observations were those derived for the application

of weather prediction models. Significant advances have been

achieved on the physical aspects of climate modeling, but much

more research is required (see Chapter 4).

In the 1990s, motivated by unresolved questions about long-term

climate change, modeling efforts expanded to include additional

components of the climate system, such as chemistry and biology,

that are important to longer term climate processes. Here too,

much has been accomplished, but much remains to be done. In

parallel with continued research into physical climate processes and

modeling, the program will enhance efforts to more fully develop

the chemical and biological components of climate models, including

their human dimensions, in the context of a coupled interactive

system, and also expand the atmospheric domain to include middleatmosphere processes.This priority is motivated by the need to

provide answers to pressing questions about long-term change and

variability that may result from human-induced climate forcing

involving chemical, biological, and human-induced processes.

Near-Term Priorities

• In the near term, work will concentrate on improved

representations of aerosols, elements of the carbon cycle,

102

Based on recommendations in National Research Council (NRC)

reports on U.S. climate modeling (NRC, 1999b, 2001d), the CCSP

agencies initiated new activities to strengthen the national climate

modeling infrastructure.These activities will accelerate the delivery

of improved model products that are especially important for

making climate simulations, predictions, and projections more

usable and applicable to the broader research, assessment, and policy

communities (see Annex D for definitions of climate “prediction”

and “projection”).The new activities form the basis of a longer term

solution that will maintain the pace and progress of the basic

research, while simultaneously creating a path for the rapid

exploitation of new knowledge in model development, testing, and

applications.

Virtually all comprehensive climate models project a warmer Earth,

an intensified hydrologic cycle, and rising sea level as consequences

of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

However, projections of the details about the magnitude, timing,

and specific regional impacts and consequences are variable (IPCC,

2001a,b).The program is placing the highest priority on research

aimed at addressing known modeling deficiencies (see Chapter 4,

Question 4.1).The following objectives in pursuit of Goal 1

describe CCSP’s long-term approach.

Objective 1.1:Accelerate research on climate

forcing, responses, and feedbacks aimed at improving

methods for quantifying and reducing uncertainties

in the current generation of prediction and

projection models

The climate system responds in complex ways to changes in forcing

that may be natural (e.g., variations in the magnitude of solar radiation

reaching the top of the atmosphere) or human-induced (e.g., changing

atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases). Several of the

program’s science elements will provide climate modelers with the

best scientific estimates of past and expected future climate forcing

factors—for example, the Climate Variability and Change research

element for solar variability; the Atmospheric Composition, Carbon

Cycle, and Human Contributions and Responses research elements

for radiatively active trace gases and aerosols; and the Land-Use/

Land-Cover Change and Ecosystems research elements for land

surface cover changes and energy exchanges.

The direct response of the climate to a change in forcing may be

either diminished or amplified by feedback processes within the

climate system itself. For example, warmer upper oceans will result

in increased evaporation and, thus, increased concentrations of

atmospheric water vapor—itself a strong greenhouse gas—a positive

or amplifying feedback. Increased water vapor will alter cloudiness,

which may be either a positive or a negative feedback, depending on

the cloud height and type. Climate-induced changes at the land

surface (e.g., through more intense and higher frequency droughts)

may in turn feed back on the climate itself, for example, through

changes in soil moisture, vegetation, radiative characteristics, and

surface-atmosphere exchanges of water vapor.

Goal l: Improve the scientific basis of climate and

climate impacts models.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 10.Modeling Strategy

interactive land surface-atmospheric processes, and middleatmosphere dynamics and chemistry.This work will integrate

research advances by the CCSP research elements (see Chapters

3-9).The products will be next-generation climate system

models with enhanced capabilities to more comprehensively

model the interactive physical, chemical, and biological

components of the climate system.This work will continue

over the longer term, leading to fully interactive Earth system

models. For a more detailed description of research planned for

one key next-generation climate system model, see the

Community Climate System Model website,

<http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/management/sciplan2004-2008>.

The Role of the Middle Atmosphere in Climate

• The representation of the stratosphere will be improved in climate

models, including feedbacks between stratospheric dynamics

and stratospheric ozone, and between stratospheric dynamics

and water vapor (see Chapter 4).

• CCSP will examine whether variations in solar irradiance can play

a significant role in the natural variability of the climate system.

Models will be developed that extend vertically through the

mesosphere and include interactions between ultraviolet radiation,

ozone chemistry, and atmospheric circulation and transports

(see Chapters 3 and 4).

Interaction of Aerosols, Chemistry, Ecosystems, and Hydrology

• CCSP will develop the capability to model a fully interactive

aerosol system within climate models, in order to examine the

multi-faceted roles of aerosols in the climate system (see

Chapters 3, 4 and 5).

Atmospheric Composition

• CCSP climate system models will be developed to include both

tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, chemical processes

related to interactions at the Earth’s surface, and interactions

with hydrologic processes, in order to adequately represent the

sources, sinks, and transformation processes of those molecules

that are important for climate because of their ability to absorb

and/or emit radiation and whose concentration and properties

must be adequately simulated in climate models (see Chapter 3.) 

Biogeochemistry and Ecosystems

• CCSP will develop the modeling tools and validation data sets

for incorporating and assessing historical and future land use;

the dynamics of managed forest, rangeland, agricultural, coastal,

and ocean systems; and deliberate carbon sequestration activities

(see Chapters 6-9).

High-Resolution Climate Model

• At present, there are two complementary approaches to modeling

climate change and climate impacts at regional and sector scales.

One approach uses a variety of “downscaling” techniques, ranging

from nested mesoscale (regional scale) models to adaptable

global grids (see Objective 1.6).The second approach is to

increase the resolution of the global models themselves,

throughout the entire global domain.The former approach is

103

Atmosphere

Dynamic

Vegetation

Dynamic

Vegetation

Ocean & Sea

Ice Model

Sulfur Cycle

Model

Non-Sulfate

Aerosol

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Dynamic

Vegetation

Carbon

Cycle

Carbon

Cycle

Non-Sulfate

Aerosol

Non-Sulfate

Aerosol

Sulfate

Aerosol

Sulfate

Aerosol

Sulfate

Aerosol

Ocean &

Sea Ice

Ocean &

Sea Ice

Ocean &

Sea Ice

Ocean &

Sea Ice

Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere

Ocean Carbon

Cycle Model

Carbon

Cycle Model

Land Carbon

Cycle Model

Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present Day Early 2000s?

Figure 10-1: The development

of climate models over the

last 25 years showing how the

different components are first

developed separately and

later coupled into

comprehensive climate

models. Source: IPCC (2001a).
Chapter 10.Modeling Strategy Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

complicated by several unresolved issues, ranging from the

effects of lateral boundary processes to conservation principles.

The second approach is not practical without very large increases

in computing capability.The CCSP strategy is to continue to

support research in and applications of regional-scale climate

models and other downscaling methods. On a smaller scale, the

program will support pilot projects for next-generation very

high-resolution global climate model development, in anticipation

of continuing advances in computational technologies.

Climate models and observations are intimately connected, as

described under Objectives 1.3-1.5 below. Models must be evaluated

and constrained by observations, which also serve to initialize models

used for prediction. Models provide a dynamically consistent

framework into which diverse climate observations can be assimilated

to produce “value-added” data sets of gridded, continuous time

series of hybrid field observations and modeled data.

Objective 1.3: Foster model analysis and testing

through model diagnostics and intercomparison

activities, including comparison with observations

Given the complexity of climate models, it is difficult to ascertain

why a particular model performs “better” or “worse” than others in

any given situation. Generally speaking, a measure of a model’s

quality is its ability to simulate the current climate [global averages,

annual cycle, major modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

(ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), etc.] and the climate

of the past centuries (19th and 20th) as measured by available

observations.Therefore, it is essential to carefully identify and

document model deficiencies, such as systematic biases (“bias”

refers to the tendency of a model’s prediction to drift toward the

model’s climatology, which may be at variance with the real world).

Furthermore, thorough diagnostics of model deficiencies (e.g.,

intercomparison of various models, comparison of models to

observations, analysis of physical mechanisms using simplified or

conceptual models, and carrying out model sensitivity experiments)

are essential to identify sources of model errors, which then provide

the basis for model improvement.

Near-Term Priorities

• Various projects aimed at fostering intercomparison among

climate models or their components are underway.The program

will continue to support these efforts in model intercomparisons,

with an emphasis on the diagnostics for the sources of deficiencies

common to many climate models, such as the “double

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)” problem in the tropical

Pacific Ocean, which is closely associated with the modeling of

tropical deep convection and cloud feedbacks. A key approach is

to bring together the expertise and interests of observation

specialists, process modelers, diagnosticians, and climate

modeling centers to tackle the problem from various angles in a

coordinated manner (e.g., the CPT approach).

• Given the status of observations, it is not obvious which

model(s) are “better” (see Chapter 12, Goal 4). In practice,

when assessing how models simulate the present climate, most

of the comparisons are made using “reanalysis data” provided by

one of several groups.A wealth of satellite data is already available,

with much more coming available.The linkage between satellite

data and the needs of modeling groups that has been made very

effectively in some modeling organizations (e.g., NASA’s Data

Assimilation Office, NOAA’s National Centers for

Environmental Prediction) should be replicated by other CCSP

modeling groups.The program will address the role of both the

modeling groups and the remote-sensing teams (see Chapter 12,

Goal 6).Those modeling groups that have not made use of

satellite data in the past will be encouraged to utilize it as part of

their activity. Remote-sensing projects will be better integrated

into the modeling community, with the scientific research team

associated with each instrument encouraged to provide userfriendly data sets for modeling as part of their data collection

responsibility.

• For paleoclimate studies, there is often a large gap between the

actual data being obtained and the interpretation of those data in

terms of the climate variables output from each model.When

there is an apparent mismatch between model output and climate

interpretation, it is often unclear whether the interpretation of

the paleoclimate proxy data is responsible.To minimize this

problem, the program will encourage modelers to include

direct representations of the paleoclimate proxy data (e.g.,

water isotopes), so that comparisons can then be made with the

proxy data independent of any climate interpretation.This will

also help to improve the value of proxy data.

• At times, model performance can look satisfactory when

compared with one reanalysis data set, and less so compared

with another. As in the case of GCM differences, the reasons for

the reanalysis differences need to be better understood.The

program will encourage improved understanding through close

cooperation between the reanalysis modeling data centers and

observational and empirical scientific research (e.g., via a CPT).

This effort will require international cooperation, and possibly

some joint funding of such comparisons through international

entities, such as the World Meteorological Organization (see

also Objective 1.5).

Some key examples of global climate model intercomparison projects

include the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP,

<www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/amip/>), the Coupled Model

Intercomparison Project (CMIP, <www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip/>),

and the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP,

<www-lsce.cea.fr/pmip/>). AMIP was initiated in 1989, for the

purpose of identifying and documenting the differences among the

various atmospheric models and observations, to provide a basis for

model improvement. Nearly all atmospheric models in use today

have been calibrated using the AMIP experimental protocol. AMIP

is closely integrated with CMIP, and provides a calibration for

understanding how coupled models respond to increasing levels of

greenhouse gases. Model-model and model-measurement

intercomparisons have been carried out for a number of component

models that will ultimately need to be incorporated into global

climate models. For instance, multi-dimensional stratospheric

composition models have been intercompared with both each other

and with observations in a series of “Modeling and Measurement”

papers.

CMIP, like AMIP, is an activity of the World Climate Research

Programme (WCRP). It was initiated in 1995 with the goal of

collecting and intercomparing simulations from global coupled

climate models—that is, models that operate over the complete

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Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 10.Modeling Strategy

global three-dimensional domain of the climate system, with

components typically consisting of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and

land surface.Virtually every global coupled model group worldwide

is participating in CMIP, including groups from Australia, Canada,

China, France, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Russia, the United

Kingdom, and the United States.

PMIP, launched in 1994 and endorsed by the International

Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and WCRP, is an international

project involving members of all the major modeling groups

worldwide.The aims of the PMIP project are to improve

understanding of the mechanisms of climate change by examining

such changes in the past, and to evaluate the ability of climate

models to reproduce paleoclimate conditions radically different

from present-day climate.

Objective 1.4: Improve short-term climate

predictions through model initialization with

enhanced observational data

Over the past several decades, progress in improving numerical

weather forecasting has been achieved primarily through the

continuing increase in model resolution and improvement in

initializing (specifying the values of the model’s variables at the start

of the forecast) the prediction models. Initialization has been

improved through the increase in available observations, particularly

from remote-sensing platforms, and by advances in data assimilation

techniques.

Improving climate prediction can follow a similar path. Although

seasonal climate forecasting using coupled climate models is still at

an early stage of development, the most significant impact on

forecasts in the past decade has come through the use of ocean data

assimilation to assimilate in situ observations for initializing the

coupled models for ENSO forecasts.

Near-Term Priorities

• To improve short-term climate forecasts, CCSP modeling will

incorporate new and improved technologies in data assimilation,

such as coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation and land

data assimilation, and better utilization/assimilation of in situ

and remotely sensed global oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial

observations (e.g., better utilization of altimetric sea-level data

and improved methodologies for assimilating soil moisture and

sea surface salinity; see also Chapter 12).

• The most significant challenge in data assimilation for climate

prediction is the bias in prediction models.To reduce model bias,

CCSP will significantly improve physical formulations of climate

models, through improved incorporation of existing and new

observations as well as through results from new process studies.

• Observations of several new variables have been demonstrated to

be critical for improving seasonal forecasts, including sea surface

salinity (SSS), particularly in tropical oceans, and soil moisture

over the land. Satellite missions for measuring SSS and soil

moisture have been planned for the next decade (see Chapter 12).

In conjunction with efforts to make these observations available

globally, the program will invest in research and development

on the use of salinity and soil moisture observations in data

assimilation for initialization of climate forecast models.

Objective 1.5: Provide comprehensive observationally

based model-assimilated climate data sets for

climate process research and testing of climate

model simulations and retrospective projections

There is a critical need for an ongoing effort to provide complete

descriptions of the present and past state of the atmospheric and

oceanic components of the global climate system, together with

continually updated data sets compiled in consistent ways to enable

comparison of models with observations (see Chapter 12). As new

climate observations are obtained, it is essential to place them in a

historical context to enable the accurate evaluation of departures

from normal, and trends and change in variability. New observations

can provide additional information about climate when they are put

in the context of past observations at uniformly spaced points in

space.This is accomplished through the systematic processing and

integration of climate observations using the state-of-art climate

models and data assimilation methods.

Near-Term Priority

• The program will support research and development of

advanced data assimilation methods and the production of global

climate time series to establish reliable climatologies, identify

real versus fictitious trends, and develop techniques to minimize

the effects of changing observing systems and model biases.

Objective 1.6:Accelerate the development of

scientifically based predictive models to provide

regional- and fine-scale climate and climate impacts

information relevant for scientific research and

decision support applications

Regional climate models (RCMs, also called mesoscale models) are

used in conjunction with GCMs to provide “downscaling” of climate

variables for regional-scale predictions or projections. RCMs operate

on scales that could not be accessed directly in GCMs due to

computational capability limitations.Thus, while global climate

models will be approaching 100-km resolution in the foreseeable

future, it is unlikely that in the near future they will reach the 10-km

scale that regional models can simulate. RCMs represent the most

prevalent current approach to dynamic downscaling. An alternative

approach is statistical downscaling, for which the applicability to

climate change is uncertain. Other dynamic approaches include

stretched-grid GCMs, with uneven horizontal resolution, which can

provide regional-scale resolution over certain domains.

RCMs can also be used for “upscaling” of information to test GCMs.

To the extent that many small-scale processes, parameterized in

general circulation models as “sub-grid scale,” can be better simulated

in regional models, they can provide feedback on the adequacy and

limitations of the coarse-grid parameterization schemes.

While the finer resolution provided by regional-scale models is

desirable, the quality of the resulting solutions is limited, except

perhaps in better delineating orographic (mountain region)

precipitation.There are several broad issues involved in the use of

regional models.While such models may allow many physical

processes to be incorporated on the scale at which they occur (e.g.,

rainfall in the vicinity of mountains), the physics on regional scales

is often uncertain.The uncertainties have led to the existence of

105
Chapter 10.Modeling Strategy Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

multiple versions of most RCMs.When utilizing them for climate

change simulations, the different versions can produce results that

differ from each other by as much as the observed climate changes

they are attempting to simulate, which questions their use by

policymakers and decisionmakers.

A second issue is consistency. Regional-scale models of necessity

generally utilize physical parameterizations that differ from those of

the GCM, if for no other reason than because parameterizations are

often scale-dependent.The GCM supplies boundary conditions

generated with one physics package, and the RCM utilizes these

boundary conditions in conjunction with different physics.This

effect is made worse in “two-way coupling,” in which the mesoscale

result is fed back to the GCM. Using a mesoscale model over the

Rocky Mountains, for example, and not at the same time over the

Himalayas, provides inconsistent forcing for the GCM planetary

wave structure, which is affected by both mountain chains.

Near-Term Priorities

• Many challenging downscaling and upscaling research issues

remain to be addressed in order to provide the most useful

information possible for decision support. Although regional

modeling is highly relevant to most of CCSP’s participating

agencies, research and applications are often centered on the

missions and interests of individual agencies.This has resulted in

a need for more focused leadership and coordination following

the guidelines given in Chapter 16. Toward this end, CCSP

will establish a process for coordination of regional modeling

activities, including the development of methods to transfer

regional decision support products into operations. Regional

and sectoral climate and climate impacts research and modeling

is a high program priority and its support will be accelerated.

• Reducing the uncertainty associated with such issues will require

diagnostics and intercomparison of regional-scale models and

application techniques.With CCSP support. regional models will

be tested systematically when forced by real-world and GCMproduced boundary conditions, and the results quantified against

regional observations for different locations.The different physical

parameterizations being used on regional scales will be compared

with observations when available, and assessments made of their

realism. Regional reanalysis and observational data sets will be

used for verification purposes when evaluating RCM output.

• To provide greater consistency and to help improve GCMs, CCSP

will support upscaling of well-validated physics at the regional

level to provide insight into parameterizations for the coarser

grid GCM. For example, the mesoscale model resolution will be

expanded systematically to learn how the results change, and

help determine what is appropriate for GCMs.This approach is

promising (e.g., for physically based cloud-resolving models).

The principal U.S. agencies that support climate model development

and application commissioned NRC to analyze U.S. modeling

efforts as well as to suggest ways that the agencies could further

develop the U.S. program so that the need for state-of-the-art

model products can be satisfied.The NRC reports, The Capacity of

U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities

(NRC, 1999b) and Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling

(NRC, 2001d), provided valuable guidance on how to improve U.S.

climate modeling efforts. Also, the U.S. Global Change Research

Program issued High-End Climate Science: Development of Modeling

and Related Computing Capabilities (USGCRP, 2000), a report

commissioned by the Office of Science and Technology Policy to

make recommendations on climate modeling activities.

These documents emphasized four key points: (1) the acknowledged

U.S. leadership in basic climate research that generates the knowledge

base, which underpins both domestic and international modeling

programs; (2) the limited ability of the United States to rapidly

integrate the basic climate research into a comprehensive climate

modeling capability; (3) the challenges, including software, hardware,

human resource, and management issues, to routinely produce

comprehensive climate modeling products; and most important,

(4) the need to establish a dedicated capability for comprehensive

climate modeling activities, including the global climate observations

and data that support modeling.

Objective 2.1: Provide the computing, data storage

and retrieval, and software engineering resources

required to support a world-class U.S. climate

modeling activity

The production of global model predictions of climate variability

and change with sufficient resolution and veracity to provide useful

regional information to decisionmakers requires a comprehensive

computational infrastructure of computing resources, data centers,

networks, and people.The success of this enterprise is predicated

on a long-term commitment of the program to sustain the

institutional support and investment required to maintain a resilient

and state-of-the-art computational and information technology

infrastructure.

Near-Term Priority

• CCSP will support researchers in developing more comprehensive

coupled models that need to be evaluated, then exercised to

produce ensemble projections of multi-century climate change

scenarios.The results from these runs will be analyzed and

employed by hundreds of researchers engaged in climate studies,

impacts research, and assessment.

High-end computing needs are often divided into the two broad

and overlapping categories of capability needs and capacity needs.

The former refers to applications that require the capability to do

sophisticated, cutting-edge simulations that were impossible just a

few years ago because the computing platforms to execute them did

not exist.Typically, these simulations require the dedicated use of

the most powerful computer available for several weeks at a time.

Ensemble simulations with the current and next generations of

coupled models fall into this category. In addition to capability

resources, CCSP requires a large amount of capacity resources to

carry out the bulk (in terms of total computing cycles) of its

modeling and analysis needs.

106

Goal 2: Provide the infrastructure and capacity

necessary to support a scientifically rigorous and

responsive U.S. climate modeling activity.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 10.Modeling Strategy

Near-Term Priority

• To meet its mandate, CCSP will provide researchers at the major

modeling centers with access to steadily growing computational

resources that increase by a factor of four each year.This will

result in a 256-fold increase in available computing power over

4 years and a roughly 1,000-fold increase over 5 years.The

factor of 1,000 will provide a three-fold increase in resolution

which corresponds to a factor of 20 increase in computing

requirements, a factor of two for improved process representation,

a factor of four for increased comprehensiveness, a factor of

three for increased ensemble size, and a factor of two for an

increased number of scenarios.This level of enhancement will

meet the computational requirements for the next-generation

climate system models (described in Objective 1.2).This will be

accompanied by appropriately scaling investments in software

engineering, input/output systems, and local storage systems

together with increasing investments in high-end analysis and

visualization software development. A part of the growth will

be met as computing equipment is replaced periodically every

3 to 5 years, with better technology at lower prices (Moore’s

“law”).

Currently, capability resources needs are met through a combination

of dedicated and shared resources. The dedicated resources—

particularly the computers at the NOAA, NASA, DOE, and NCAR

laboratories—do not fully meet the needs of the modeling

community.The shortfall is made up by additional resources

acquired at several shared-access supercomputer centers by the

researchers themselves, through individual proposals.These centers

are not supported by CCSP and provide computing through a

competitive review process among many researchers from many

fields of science and engineering. CCSP objectives cannot be met

without these additional computing resources.

One example of such computing resources is DOE’s National

Energy Research Scientific Computing (NERSC) facility at the

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.To help meet computing

needs for U.S. climate modeling, 10% of the computing cycles at

NERSC will be made available to the broader scientific community

in an open competition, with a special emphasis on climate modeling.

Those cycles that might be allocated for climate modeling in that

open competition would supplement the cycles at NERSC already

used for climate modeling.

Possible collaborations with the Earth Simulator center in Japan,

which has a computer with 20-50 times the capability of any existing

U.S. machine for climate model applications, may help meet some

of the near future needs. Unfortunately, this resource is now not

directly accessible to U.S.-based researchers, because its lack of

appropriate communication and mass storage and retrieval capacity

requires users to be physically located at the center. Data generated

at the center must be transferred to storage media that are then

physically transported to data archives in the United States.This

problem may be resolved in the near future.

Near-Term Priority

• In April 2003, the Office of Science and Technology Policy

initiated a High-End Computing Revitalization Task Force

(HECRTF) to assess the current high-end computing capability

and capacity within the federal agencies, and to develop a plan

to revitalize high-end computing research and enable leadingedge scientific research using high-end computing. CCSP has

been coordinating with HECRTF to ensure that the CCSP

computing capability and capacity needs are considered.

The divergence in high-end computing architectures over the last

decade has made developing models for high-end capability

machines more labor-intensive, requiring the addition of a software

engineering component to model development.

Near-Term Priority

• Recent CCSP projects, including the NASA Earth System

Modeling Framework (ESMF) program (see Objective 3.2) and

the DOE Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Software

Engineering Consortium program address this requirement.

CCSP will support their continuation.

In addition to these primary capability computational resources,

CCSP requires a network of available capacity computing engines,

data archives, and associated information technology infrastructure

to make the model products readily available and accessible, so that

further analysis and the development of secondary products, such

as downscaled model information, can be used for research and

assessment.While the current archive of model results totals several

tens of terabytes (trillions of units of information), future model

data archives, and associated observational data to evaluate the

models, will consume tens of petabytes (thousand terabytes).

Near-Term Priority

• The information technology infrastructure will be tailored to

meet the specific needs of the CCSP modeling community,

which will require the development and maintenance of both

the software and hardware components that form the backbone

of the infrastructure.To accommodate the rapid rate of turnover

in information technology, the infrastructure will be flexible and

dynamic so that it can evolve over time to meet increasing

demands and utilize the best available technology. Projects such

as the DOE Earth System Grid (ESG) provide a start in this

direction by cataloging and making a subset of the existing model

archives available over the Internet, but far more is needed.

Contingent on continued progress and merit of the ESG project,

the DOE Office of Science will continue to directly support

ESG through at least 2005.

Objective 2.2: Establish graduate, post-doctoral,

and visiting scientist programs to cross-train new

environmental scientists for multidisciplinary

climate and climate impacts modeling research and

applications

The development, testing, and application of climate system models

requires environmental and computer technicians and scientists with

expertise in a broad range of disciplines.The scientific disciplines

include atmospheric physics and chemistry; ocean physics, chemistry,

and biology; ice physics; biological ecology; geology; applied

mathematics; and the interactions among them.The activity also

requires computer software engineering to develop, test, and manage

107
Chapter 10.Modeling Strategy Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

climate forcing fields and uses these to model and study climate

sensitivity to natural and human forcings; the NASA Goddard Space

Flight Center, which focuses on the use of satellite data to generate

research-quality data sets, to improve climate models, and to

improve weather and coupled model predictions; the International

Research Institute for Climate Prediction, which prepares and

internationally distributes seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction

and impacts products; and the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere

Studies, which focuses on studies of the predictability of climate.

The second type is a number of smaller centers that have focused

research interests on specific questions in climate research.

The strategy includes, at its third level, two “high-end” climate

modeling centers that will continue to develop, evaluate, maintain,

and apply models capable of executing the most sophisticated

simulations, such as those required for assessments by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).These two

centers—one based at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

Laboratory (GFDL) and the other based on CCSM and coordinated

by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)—are

complementary, cooperative, and collaborative. Both high-end

modeling groups have a long legacy of successful climate change

research that predates the IPCC process and have led U.S.

participation in international modeling evaluations and assessments.

A healthy balance of resources (financial, human, and computer)

among these three levels is essential to maintain a strong U.S.

applied modeling program. Researchers collaborate extensively

across all three tiers, ensuring the rapid flow of knowledge and

understanding, as well as the definition of new problems. One

example of such collaboration is support for a common modeling

infrastructure (CMI) and the Earth System Modeling Framework to

optimize modeling resources and enable meaningful knowledge

transfer among modelers. By adopting common coding standards

and system software, researchers will be able to test ideas at any of

the several major modeling centers and the centers themselves will

be better able to exchange model components.

The multi-tiered strategy provides a structure by which the diverse

contributions of the basic research community can be quickly utilized

and integrated in state-of-the-art models used for climate simulation

and prediction. At the same time, the strategy supports the decision

support requirements of CCSP to make model simulations available

for policy and impacts studies.

Objective 3.1: Provide routine, on-demand

state-of-the-science model-based global

projections of future climate

A major CCSP objective is to develop scientifically based global,

time-dependent, multi-century projections of future climate change

for different scenarios of climate forcing caused by natural variations

and human activities. These projections are a primary form of

scientific information to support decisionmaking about options to

address the potential consequences of climate change. Development

of capabilities to produce world-class climate change projections on

demand to meet the needs of international and national assessments

and other decision support requirements will bring new cohesion and

coherence to the efforts of the U.S. climate modeling community.

Given current scientific uncertainty and gaps in knowledge, it is

108

model code (which, for a state-of-the-art climate system model, is

currently about 500,000 lines and is projected to grow to about one

million lines over the next 5 years).

Near-Term Priority

• As climate modeling becomes ever more complex, a shortage of

appropriately trained scientists and technicians has become one

of the limiting factors to progress.To meet this need, CCSP will

establish a graduate student, post-doctoral, and visiting scientist

fellowship program for climate modeling research and applications.

The program will offer cross-training opportunities in climate

modeling and computer sciences/software engineering. A modest

post-doctoral and visiting scientist program has been established

in FY2003 and will be expanded in future years.

The NRC review of U.S. climate modeling (NRC, 2001d)

recommended the following as high priorities for the nation:

• Centralized operations and institutional arrangements for delivery

of climate services

• A common modeling infrastructure

• Human resources.

The dispersed and diverse nature of climate research, including

climate modeling research, in the United States requires an

integrating strategy to rapidly infuse new knowledge into the most

complete models used to simulate and predict future climate states.

At the same time, the ability to provide decision support requires a

robust and ready modeling capability to perform specialized

projections and simulations to inform policymaking. A multi-tiered

CCSP strategy has evolved over the last several years to address

shortcomings identified in NRC reports on U.S. integrated climate

modeling efforts (NRC 1999b, 2001d), as well as to meet anticipated

future demands.The strategy combines a “bottom-up” approach

required to solve difficult basic research problems with a “top-down”

approach to focus a component of modeling research on the needs

for decision support.

At the most fundamental level of the strategy is the large number of

basic research projects at universities, federal laboratories, and in

the private sector, which, along with the larger centers, produce

new knowledge required to further improve climate models.

The middle level includes modeling centers that conduct essential

research and development for climate, weather, and data assimilation

applications.These centers are of two types, the first of which are

the large modeling centers that develop and maintain state-of-thescience global models but have primary missions other than centuryscale global climate projection, although they may have some activities

in that area.These centers include the NOAA National Center for

Environmental Prediction, which conducts operational weather and

climate prediction; the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,

which focuses on using satellite data to provide representations of

Goal 3: Coordinate and accelerate climate modeling

activities and provide relevant decision support

information on a timely basis.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 10.Modeling Strategy

essential that the United States maintain more than one high-end

modeling center focused on long-term climate change, so that

differing approaches to unsolved problems can be explored.

Both CCSM and GFDL support ongoing development of

comprehensive climate system models, involving chemistry,

biogeochemistry, and ecological processes.The centers are engaged

in the development and application of distinct models.Their

methods, innovations, and working hypotheses differ regarding

many of the outstanding unresolved theoretical and modeling issues.

The different approaches are essential at this stage, given the highly

complex nature of the climate system with its numerous feedback

mechanisms across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales.

Further, a comprehensive U.S. climate modeling strategy benefits

from a measure of differentiation between the roles of the two

centers. Despite an apparent overlap in responsibilities, the missions

and structures of the two centers are more complementary than

duplicative. CCSM is an open and accessible modeling system that

integrates basic knowledge from the broad, multidisciplinary basic

research community for research and applications.The GFDL model

development team participates in these community interactions and

will focus on model product generation for research, assessments,

and policy applications as its principal activity. GFDL models and

products are integral to the development of the NOAA Climate

Services program, which provides operational climate products

and services to policymakers and resource managers. GFDL

maintains dedicated computer resources that can be allocated

flexibly to meet mission requirements.

Near-Term Priorities

• Results from GFDL and CCSM models will comprise the

primary U.S. contributions to IPCC assessments, as well as

provide input to other assessments of the science and impacts

of climate change. Independent century-long climate

projections will be executed by each center on schedules to

meet national and international assessment demands.

• CCSM will maintain an open model development system

with major changes developed through consensus from the

broad scientific community engaged in climate research.

Computer resources for CCSM research will continue to

be provided mostly at shared-access supercomputer centers

through allocations given to the many projects associated

with CCSM.This arrangement works well for the IPCC and

other major assessments that have long lead-times that

allow for sufficient planning.

• GFDL plans to procure additional supercomputing

resources to enable the systematic generation of model

products needed by the impacts, assessments, and policy

communities to document and assess the regional and global

impacts of long-term climate variability and change. In

addition to products derived from GFDL model simulations,

additional products will be generated using results from

other modeling centers, including CCSM.

• Although they will maintain separate model development

paths, the two centers have developed, and will implement,

a plan for extensive scientific interaction and collaboration.

The first step is to understand why the two coupled models

have significantly different climate sensitivity to increased

atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Initial studies indicate

that the prediction of changes in cloud amount in response to

atmospheric warming is very different in the two models (see

Figure 10-2).This suggests that an important factor leading to

differences in climate sensitivity is the differences in representation

of cloud processes.

• The centers will work with the broader scientific community of

university and other laboratory modeling groups to focus

research, including climate process studies, to better understand

and resolve the differences between the models.

• Further enhancement of the collaborations will be enabled by the

following actions, some of which are dependent upon sufficient

resources: a program of focused model intercomparisons (see

also Objective 1.3); a graduate student, post-doctoral, and visitors

program to accelerate interactions (see also Objective 2.2); and

development of common model diagnostics.

• The centers will work cooperatively to develop methods for

providing global model output for a variety of decision processes

(see Chapter 11).

Objective 3.2: Develop mechanisms for effective

collaborations and knowledge transfer

Climate Process and Modeling Teams. Climate scientists who

conduct observational and empirical research into climate processes

are often not well connected with modeling centers and model

109

Change in Low Cloud Amount (%)

-4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4

Figure 10-2: Changes in the amount of low clouds simulated by the GFDL model

(top) and CCSM (bottom) resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide

concentration. In many areas, the amount of low cloud is reduced in the GFDL

model, where the amount of clouds increases over most areas in CCSM. This

difference in behavior may be a major source of the models’ differing climate

sensitivities. Source: GFDL and NCAR.
developers.The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)

program has developed and promoted a research strategy that involves

the formation of Climate Process and Modeling Teams in order to

improve collaboration between researchers and modelers. CPTs consist

of process-oriented observation specialists, researchers, and individual

process and parameterization modelers, working collaboratively

with climate model developers.The teams are organized around an

issue, model deficiency, and/or parameterization(s) that are generic

to all climate models. An important distinction between CPTs and

other more conventional model development research is the emphasis

on directed teamwork, demonstrated progress, and delivery of products

that will be tested and possibly implemented in climate models.

Near-Term Priority

• The goal of the CPT approach is to facilitate and accelerate

progress in improving the fidelity of climate models and their

predictions and projections. Specifically, CPTs will:

– Speed the transfer of theoretical and practical process-model

understanding into improved treatment of processes in climate

system models (e.g., coupled models and their component

models, assimilation and prediction systems), and demonstrate,

via testing and diagnostics, the impact of these improvements

– Identify process study activities necessary to further refine

climate model fidelity

– Develop observational requirements for climate system models.

Success of CPTs will be measured not only by advances in

knowledge, but more importantly by the development of new

modeling capabilities and products. Several pilot-scale CPTs are

being funded by CCSP in FY2003 (see Chapter 4).

Common Modeling Infrastructure and Earth System Modeling

Framework. One of the great strengths of atmospheric, oceanic,

and climate modeling in the United States is the variety, availability,

and wide use of models. But this diversity has also led to duplication

of effort and a proliferation of models and codes that, due largely to

technical reasons, cannot interoperate and have been unable to keep

up with and exploit advances in computing technology.

Climate models are increasingly being used to support decisionmaking.

The predictive requirements are becoming more stringent.The

demand for interoperability of climate model components has

intensified as various modeling groups are engaging in collaborative

research.Without exchangeable model components, it is often difficult

to point to a component as a clearly identifiable cause of divergent

results when one model is compared against another or against

observations. In order to optimize modeling resources and enable

meaningful collaborations among modelers, it is necessary to build

common and flexible modeling infrastructure at the major centers.

The common modeling infrastructure that will be implemented by

the two centers will enable the exchange of model components

between different modeling systems and facilitate analyses and

intercomparisons of model results by adopting common coding

standards for model components and common output formats, and

developing common diagnostics packages.To achieve part of this

commonality, the Earth System Modeling Framework project has

been established. ESMF is a community-wide engineering effort to

develop common software to facilitate interoperability of climate

models on various hardware platforms, especially on massively

parallel architecture platforms (i.e., many individual computational

units operating in parallel, connected by data communication links).

Near-Term Priority

• CCSP will support further development of CMI/ESMF through

multi-agency mechanisms that will ensure participation of the

major U.S. climate modeling centers and groups. CMI/ESMF will:

(1) facilitate the exchange of scientific codes (interoperability)

so that researchers may more readily interface with smaller scale,

process-modeling efforts and can share experience among diverse

large-scale modeling efforts; (2) promote the implementation of

standard, low-level software, the development of which now

accounts for a substantial fraction of the software development

budgets in many institutions; (3) focus community resources to

deal with changes in computer architecture; (4) present the

computer industry and computer scientists with a unified, welldefined, and well-documented task to address; (5) share the

overhead costs of software development, such as platformspecific user libraries and documentation; and (6) provide

greater institutional continuity to model development efforts by

distributing support for modeling infrastructure throughout the

community. Products will include more efficient and rapid

transfer of research results into model applications, and human

resources and dollar cost savings.

Objective 3.3: Provide for interagency coordination of

CCSP modeling activities to improve implementation

and external advisory processes to evaluate performance

Near-Term Priorities

• CCSP modeling activities are carried out by a number of agencies.

In order to improve the coordination of the implementation of

these activities at the program level, CCSP will establish a

process for coordination of CCSP modeling activities that lie

beyond the boundaries of the missions or programs of single

agencies, including coordination of the use of computer

resources that can be shared between agencies.

• CCSP will use advisory processes to facilitate its programs (see

Chapter 16). In the

case of its modeling

strategy, CCSP will

use a variety of

advisory mechanisms

to evaluate, guide,

and provide

feedback. Such

mechanisms will

include a continuing

NRC relationship

to examine strategic

issues for future

development,

standing advisory

committees,

focused ad hoc

working groups on

technical issues

(e.g., ESMF), and

specialist workshops.

Chapter 10.Modeling Strategy Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

110

Lead Authors

David Bader, DOE

Jay Fein, NSF

Ming Ji, NOAA

Tsengdar Lee, NASA

Stephen Meacham, NSF

David Rind, NASA

Contributors

Randall Dole, NOAA

David Goodrich, NOAA

James Hack, NCAR

Isaac Held, NOAA

Jeff Kiehl, NCAR

Chet Koblinsky, NASA and CCSPO

Ants Leetmaa, NOAA

Rick Piltz, CCSPO

CHAPTER 10 AUTHORS
In order to fulfill the scientific assessment requirements of

the 1990 Global Change Research Act (P.L. 101-606)3, and

to enhance the utility of the extensive body of observations

and research findings developed by the U.S. Global

Change Research Program (USGCRP) since 1990, the

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is adopting a

structured approach to match, coordinate, and extend

resources developed through the research activities to the

support of policy and adaptive management decisionmaking.

The USGCRP has made very large investments in research

and observing programs since 1990. By comparison, the

USGCRP investment in assessment activities and other

decision support resources has been much smaller to date.

The largest assessment program previously undertaken by

the USGCRP was the National Assessment initiated in

1998, which produced overview reports in late 2000 and a

series of specialty reports in the period 2001-2003.

The decision support approach for analyses and assessments

adopted by the CCSP builds upon the “lessons learned”

from earlier USGCRP assessment analyses, as well as other

sector, regional, national, and international assessments.

The Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) will place

enhanced emphasis on the extraction of mature scientific

knowledge from the core research program for use in assessment

and decision support.The principal guidelines for the CCSP decision

support approach follow:

• Analyses structured around specific questions.This approach enhances

consistent communications among all involved scientists and

stakeholders addressing designated questions.

• Early and continuing involvement of stakeholders. Stakeholder feedback

is essential in defining key science and observation questions,

and in defining the key issues in each analysis.

• Explicit treatment of uncertainties.The CCSP and the general scientific

community have the responsibility to define the applicability

limits imposed on various projections and other analyses, as

related to the uncertainties in the underlying data and analysis

methods.The CCSP will consistently address the uncertainties

and the limits of applicability (related to underlying uncertainties)

associated with the decision support analyses it reports.

CHAPTER

111

CHAPTER CONTENTS

The Role of Decision Support

Goal 1: Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments

to support informed discussion of climate variability

and change issues by decisionmakers, stakeholders,

the media, and the general public.

Goal 2: Develop resources to support adaptive

management and planning for responding to climate

variability and climate change, and transition these

resources from research to operational application.

Goal 3: Develop and evaluate methods (scenario

evaluations, integrated analyses, alternative

analytical approaches) to support climate change

policymaking and demonstrate these methods with

case studies.

Decision Support Management Strategy

Decision Support Resources Development 11 

The Role of Decision Support

3“On a periodic basis (not less frequently than every 4 years) the Council,

through the Committee, shall prepare and submit to the President and

the Congress an assessment which:

1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and

discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings

2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment,

agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources,

transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and

biological diversity

3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and

natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.”

(from Section 106).
Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• Transparent public review of analysis questions, methods, and draft results.

In the same manner that the CCSP published a Discussion Draft

Strategic Plan for public review in November 2002, the CCSP

will publish drafts of decision support analysis plans for open

review. Draft results from the analyses will also be published for

review before their completion.

• Evaluate ongoing CCSP analyses and build on the lessons learned.The

CCSP plans to conduct, through a variety of mechanisms, a

limited number of decision support case studies during the next

2 years, and to expand the scope of these analyses only after

evaluating scientific and stakeholder community feedback from

the initial experiences.

The CCSP activities in Decision Support Resources go beyond what

has been accomplished in the past in the breadth of interagency

activity and commitment to extend beyond traditional science

assessments to new forms of stakeholder interactions that focus

development and delivery of information in more effective and

credible ways.The CCSP Decision Support Resources activities will

build on the science foundation established by the USGCRP, the

CCRI, and related international research programs, as well as the

lessons learned from other assessments and stakeholder interaction

projects conducted during the last decade.The planned decision

support resource development will address key recommendations

from the National Research Council (NRC), particularly those

discussed in Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the

Next Decade (NRC, 1999a), Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some

Key Questions (NRC, 2001a), and The Science of Regional and Global

Change: Putting Knowledge to Work (NRC, 2001e).

Priorities on decision support resources are guided by national and

international priorities that have been established with stakeholder

partnerships. National priorities include the management of carbon,

energy, water, air quality, community growth, disaster, invasive

species, and coasts, along with possible negative ancillary impacts

associated with health and agricultural efficiency.

The analyses and development of other decision support resources

are intended to support the decisionmaking process and to be

capacity-building activities. By sponsoring these activities (conducted

by government, academic, and other groups), the CCSP will

enhance the capabilities of various interdisciplinary research groups

to assist in the evaluation of the many different policy and adaptive

management questions likely to arise in the coming years. Decision

support resources are improved on an iterative basis, requiring a

continuous process of incorporating new technologies, processes, and

knowledge.The CCSP plan for evaluation is to systematically verify

and validate the integration of each new generation of climate change

research results into decision support resources and to determine the

confidence in using the enhanced tools in a variety of applications.

112

Decision Support Resources

Decision support resources refers to

the set of analyses and assessments,

interdisciplinary research, analytical

methods (including scenarios and

alternative analysis methodologies),

model and data product development,

communication, and operational services

that provide timely and useful

information to address questions

confronting policymakers, resource

managers and other stakeholders.

Policy Decisions

Policy decisions result in laws, regulations,

or other public actions.These decisions

are typically made in government settings

(federal, state, local) by elected or

appointed officials.These decisions, which

usually involve balancing competing

value issues, can be assisted by—but not

specified by—scientific analyses.

Adaptive Management Decisions

Adaptive management decisions are

operational decisions, principally for

managing entities that are influenced by

climate variability and change.These

decisions can apply to the management

of infrastructure (e.g., a waste water

treatment plant), the integrated

management of a natural resource (e.g.,

a watershed), or the operation of

societal response mechanisms (e.g.,

health alerts, water restrictions).

Adaptive management operates within

existing policy frameworks or uses

existing infrastructure, and the decisions

usually occur on time scales of a year or

less.

Planning

Planning is a process inherently important

for both policy decisions and adaptive

management. It usually occurs in the

framework of established or projected

policy options.

Stakeholders

Stakeholders are individuals or groups

whose interests (financial, cultural,

value-based, or other) are affected by

climate variability, climate change, or

options for adapting to or mitigating

these phenomena. Stakeholders are

important partners with the research

community for development of decision

support resources.

Assessments

Assessments are processes that involve

analyzing and evaluating the state of

scientific knowledge (and the associated

degree of scientific certainty) and, in

interaction with users, developing

information applicable to a particular set

of issues or decisions.

Scenario

A scenario is a coherent statement of a

potential future situation that serves as

input to more detailed analysis or

modeling. Scenarios are tools to explore

“If ..., then...” statements, and are not

predictions of or prescriptions for the

future.

WORKING DEFINITIONS

BOX 11-1 
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development

all three categories as shown in Figure 11-1.The figure illustrates

stakeholder partnerships with scientists to identify and formulate

the problems to be addressed, the development of decision support

resources, and expected outcomes. Key elements in this framework

include:

• Involvement of stakeholders in question identification and

formulation

• Science syntheses and assessments focused on the identified

question(s)

• Formation of interdisciplinary research teams that interact with

the decisionmaking communities, and that integrate the natural

and social sciences 

• Development, with users, of a decision support “toolbox” (a

collection of validated and verified products and processes that

can be used by decisionmakers)

• Quantification and communication of the level of confidence in

reported findings

• Evaluation and review processes for the decision support analyses

that engage the relevant decisionmaking communities.

The “decision support toolbox” refers to the collection of decision

support products [including communication methods, integrated

maps, geographic information system (GIS)-based analysis products,

targeted forecasts for particular sectors, “decision calendars,”

scenarios, etc.] that have been validated, verified, and evaluated

from the perspective of users. In its mature state, decisionmakers

will be able to assess the extent to which analytical tools applied in

a particular sector or circumstance could be applied or modified in

their particular setting.The toolbox depends upon the physical,

113

The planned CCSP Decision Support Resource activities respond to

the following three goals:

1) Scientific syntheses. Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments to

support informed discussion of climate variability and change

issues by decisionmakers, stakeholders, the media, and the

general public.

2) Adaptive management for resources and infrastructure. Develop

information resources to support adaptive management and

planning for responding to climate variability and climate change,

and transfer these resources from research to operational

application.

3) Support for policymaking. Develop and evaluate methods (scenario

evaluations, integrated analyses, alternative analytical approaches)

to support climate change policymaking and demonstrate these

methods with case studies.

Management and advisory processes (involving both government

and non-government reviewers) will be developed to ensure

implementation of a coordinated CCSP decision support effort

using review and feedbacks to identify and set priorities.

Three decisionmaking categories will be addressed by the CCSP:

(1) public discussion and planning based on state-of-science syntheses

and assessments; (2) operational adaptive management decisions

undertaken by managers of natural resources and built infrastructure

(i.e., “climate services applications”); and (3) support for policy

formulation. Each of these decisionmaking categories has a unique

set of stakeholders and requires different decision support tools. A

common framework of activities will be used where appropriate for

Problem Identification

and Formulation

Characterizing

and Communicating Outcomes

Policy Contexts and

Decisionmaking

Processes

Scientific

Resources and

Knowledge

Stakeholder

Parnerships

Informed

Decisionmaking

Identification of

Key Knowledge Gaps

Enhanced Policy Options/

Expanded Regional

Adaptive Capacity

Decision Resources

[across Scales and Communities]

Interdisciplinary

Research

Communications

(results and uncertainties,

education]

Product

Development

and Evaluation

Observations

and Data

Ecosystems ¥ Water Resources ¥ Forests ¥ Agriculture ¥ Energy ¥ Human Health ¥ Air Quality ¥ Fisheries ¥ Transportation ¥ Coastal Zone

Figure 11-1: Schematic representation of decision support framework illustrating components of problem identification and formulation, development of decision

resources, and final outcomes.
Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Objective 1.2: Plan and implement designated

assessment analyses in collaboration with the

stakeholder and research communities

The CCSP will produce a set of assessments that focus on a variety

of science and policy issues important for public discussion and

decisionmaking.The assessments will be composed of syntheses,

reports, and integrated analyses that the CCSP will complete by the

third quarter of 2006. CCSP cooperating agencies will sponsor or

carry out the analyses with interagency oversight to ensure that

resources from the entire program are best utilized.This approach

will cover the full range of CCSP goals and will provide a “snapshot”

of knowledge concerning the environmental and socioeconomic

aspects of climate variability and change. A list of the planned CCSP

scientific synthesis and assessment reports is provided in Box 11-2.

This list reclassifies the product summary in Table 2-1 (Chapter 2)

by primary decision support purpose.

Adapting to climate variability and potential change poses challenges

to management of resources, infrastructure, and the economy.The

pressures of increased population densities and intensified land use,

common throughout much of the United States and other nations,

increase the demand for effective management of resources sensitive

to climate in many regions. For example, information on short-term

climate variability (i.e., weekly, monthly and seasonal projections) is

relevant for the development of state and regional drought action

plans, agricultural operations management, water resource system

management, and fishery management. Much of the information

from CCSP research is relevant to these decisions, but often is

insufficiently focused on management applications to be directly

useful.Thus, the CCSP decision support resource activities will play

an important role in the “transition from research to operations” for

major elements of the underlying research. In the transition

process, particular attention will be placed on the establishment of

validation and verification guidelines for the extension of the

research, analyses and assessments, model and data products, and

other resources into operational decision support.

CCSP research results, data products, forecasts, and model results

are already being applied to adaptive management decision support

in a limited number of regional and sectoral case studies. Elements

of climate and associated ecosystem observations from satellite,

ground-based, and in situ platforms are also being synthesized into

useful data products for decisionmakers. Examples include a variety

of maps for crop management, water quality management, and

urban planning, and integrated products illustrating snowpack,

precipitation, streamflow, and potential for drought conditions.

Climate projections, especially those from El Niño-Southern

Oscillation (ENSO) analyses (which have demonstrated elements of

seasonal- to biennial-scale forecast skill), have provided information

for state and local emergency preparedness organizations; water

resource management plans for the western regions; agricultural

planning for the southeast; and fire management for drought-stricken

114

natural, social science, and, now, assessment foundations of the

CCSP, including Earth observation networks and systems, Earth

system models, the data and data-handling infrastructure of the CCSP

research activities, and an evolving network of socioeconomic data.

The expected outcomes from the CCSP Decision Support

Resources activities include:

• Improved science syntheses and assessments for informing public

discussion of climate change issues

• Expanded adaptive management capacity to facilitate the

responses of resource managers to climate variability and change

• Assessment information for evaluating options for mitigation of

and adaptation to climate variability and change

• Identification of information needs to guide the evolution of the

CCSP science agenda.

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606, Section 106)

directs the USGCRP to support research to “produce information

readily usable by policymakers attempting to formulate effective

strategies for preventing, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of

global change” and to undertake periodic science assessments.

Assessments are an effective means for integrating and analyzing

CCSP research results with other knowledge, and communicating

useful insights in support of a variety of applications for decision

support. Assessments also help identify knowledge gaps and thus

provide valuable input to the process of focusing research.

During the next decade, CCSP will continue to support assessment

analyses. Given the broad set of policy, planning, and operational

decisions that would benefit from climate and global change

information, there are a wide variety of candidates for CCSP

assessment analyses. A focused, systematic approach for selecting

and producing a practical number of assessments—and for

continuously addressing the “lessons learned” from each assessment

analysis—will be developed and published by the CCSP.

Objective 1.1: Produce scientific synthesis reports

The CCSP participating agencies will coordinate their work to

produce a number of synthesis reports that integrate research

results focused on identified science and decision issues.These

reports will provide current evaluations of the science foundation

that can be used for informing public debate, policy, and operational

decisions, and for defining and setting the future direction and

priorities of the program.

The CCSP agencies and scientists funded by these agencies will also

continue to participate in the principal international science

assessments including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) fourth assessment scheduled for completion in

2007, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/United

Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assessments of stratospheric

ozone depletion and associated environmental impacts.

Goal 1: Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments

to support informed discussion of climate variability

and change issues by decisionmakers, stakeholders,

the media, and the general public.

Goal 2: Develop resources to support adaptive

management and planning for responding to climate

variability and climate change, and transition these

resources from research to operational application.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development

regions. Decision support tools are also employed by federal

agencies to serve the public in local and regional decisionmaking

and include applications in the management of carbon, water,

disasters, invasive species, and coastal ecosystems along with

information on public health, agriculture efficiency, and energy use.

All of these products have been co-developed by scientists and users

after extensive dialogue and are potential resources for a “decision

support toolkit.”

Making use of information on variability and potential future

changes in climate requires that decisionmakers be directly involved

in shaping their key questions, and not passive consumers of general

scientific information. User partnerships that actively engage scientists

provide the opportunity for understanding where scientific

resources and knowledge can best be used and what new research

may be needed. Outputs from such interactions include decision

calendars and assessments that frame the context in which the science

will be used, determination of what products need to be developed

using the science information base and experiential knowledge of

stakeholders, and determination of the limits of existing knowledge

to be applied to the problem.

Decision support for adaptive management requires advances in

basic knowledge and progress in applying scientific information

within adaptive management settings. Conducting research within a

decision support framework can provide multiple benefits for both

practitioners and scientists. Ideally, users of research information are

served so that new options exist for minimizing negative impacts or

pursuing opportunities, and researchers benefit from refinement

and prioritization of research agendas through the identification of

the uncertainties most relevant to decisionmaking.

CCSP will play an important role in generating processes and

products relevant to adaptive management decision options.

Examples of pilot products include historical data analyses and

products; forecasts for particular sectors at key time periods;

probabilistic climate variability and change information integrated

with decision models; “decision calendars;” geo-referenced maps of

critical climate and associated environmental parameters; and specific

model runs or data sets.The CCSP will also develop mechanisms to

sustain interactions between users and researchers in order to better

understand how to optimize the delivery of research results, data

products, and forecasts.

115

Science Reports to Inform

Evolution of the Science Research

Agenda

• Temperature trends in the lower

atmosphere—steps for understanding

and reconciling differences

• Past climate variability and change in

the Arctic and at high latitudes

• Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas

emissions and concentrations, in

collaboration with the Climate

Change Technology Program

(CCTP); review of integrated scenario

development and application

• North American carbon budget and

implications for the global carbon cycle

• Climate models and their uses and

limitations, including sensitivity,

feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis

• Climate projections for research and

assessment based on emissions

scenarios developed through the CCTP

• Climate extremes including

documentation of current extremes;

prospects for improving projections

• Relationship between observed

ecosystem changes and climate change

• State of the science of socioeconomic

and environmental impacts of climate

variability

Synthesis and Assessment

Products to Inform Adaptive

Management Decisions

• Risks of abrupt changes in global

climate

• Coastal elevation and sensitivity to

sea-level rise

• Within the transportation sector, a

summary of climate change and

variability sensitivities, potential

impacts, and response options

• Preliminary review of adaptation

options for climate-sensitive

ecosystems and resources

• Uses and limitations of observations,

data, forecasts, and other

projections in decision support

for selected sectors and

regions

• Best practice approaches for

characterizing, communicating, and

incorporating scientific uncertainty

in decisionmaking

• Decision support experiments and

evaluations using seasonal-tointerannual forecasts and observational

data

Synthesis and Assessment Products

to Inform Policy Decisions

• Re-analyses of historical climate data

for key atmospheric features;

implications for attribution of causes

of observed change

• Aerosol properties and their impacts

on climate

• Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting

substances, ozone layer recovery, and

implications for ultraviolet radiation

exposure and climate change

• State-of-knowledge of thresholds of

change that could lead to discontinuities

(sudden changes) in some ecosystems

and climate-sensitive resources

• Scenario-based analysis of the

climatological, environmental,

resource, technological, and

economic implications of different

atmospheric concentrations of

greenhouse gases

CCSP TOPICS FOR INTEGRATED

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS

CATEGORIZED BY PRIMARY END USE

BOX 11-2
Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

support are the foundation for a “tool kit,” a term that describes a

range of products useful to individuals and institutions responding

to the effects of climate variability and change.The CCSP will support

the mechanisms to help users identify and use the capabilities in the

tool kit, including web-based tutorials, workbooks, and interactive

forums.

Objective 2.2: Promote the transition of resources

from research to operations for sustained use

Once decisionmakers begin using new products, there is a need to

ensure the continuity of that product through services entities.

While the CCSP itself does not have a service mission, many of the

CCSP collaborating agencies do.The CCSP will work to facilitate

the successful transitioning, verification and validation, and

maintenance of newly developed decision support products within

its collaborating agencies or other non-federal service entities.

CCSP will work to support collection of data, information, and

other resources utilized by the decision support products and will

aid in the transition of this collection to operational entities when

appropriate. In the transition process, it is important to benchmark

116

Objective 2.1: Conduct research to extend the uses

and identify the limits of existing decision support

resource capabilities for adaptive management

The CCSP’s approach for accelerating and enhancing decision support

for adaptive management will be based on the following:

• Enhancement of existing case studies of adaptive management

decision support using a variety of approaches sponsored by

CCSP agencies

• Implementation of evaluation processes to address (1) the role

of scientific uncertainties in the analyses and (2) feedback

information to help frame future research agendas

• Development and demonstration of elements of a decision support

toolkit.

CCSP research will target adaptive management issues and

information use, including the potential entry points and barriers to

using climate information as well as the types of new information

that would provide the greatest benefit to decision processes.This

research will integrate natural and social systems within an application

context of managed resources or infrastructure, utilizing climate

and environmental observations, model

outputs, socioeconomic data, and decision

models. It will incorporate elements of

regional/ sub-regional climate science

and associated environmental processes,

socioeconomic impacts, technological

capabilities, management institutions

and policies, and decision processes

including evaluation.

CCSP will integrate lessons learned

from current adaptive decision support

case studies sponsored by CCSP

participating agencies.These lessons will

provide a mechanism for evaluating how

scientific information is currently used

by decisionmakers (to help frame

problems) and for evaluating the quality

of the scientific resources available to be

applied to the problems.

Within a case studies framework, CCSP

will support development of resources

for decision support, and will develop

methods to quantify uncertainty and its

effect on the adaptive management

process in a range of example cases.

Illustrative resources to be developed

are listed in Box 11-3.

CCSP will periodically organize

workshops and forums to gather

information on lessons learned from

adaptive management decision support

activities, and will prepare summary

reports that help transition knowledge

and resources across regions and sectors.

The resources (processes and tools) that

emerge from this research in decision

New experimental long-lead (12-month)

streamflow forecasts for major watersheds

of the United States, coupled with

improved decision-support for water

managers and users [2-4 years].

Experimental to operational decision

support systems for agriculture and

ranching in selected regions (Southwest

and Southeast) of the United States

[2-4 years].

Prototype regional (Western and

Southeastern) integrated “multi-stress”

and multi-jurisdiction decision support

systems for forest and wildfire

management [2-4 years].

Development of a blueprint for the

improved regional climate, hydrologic, and

ecological observing systems needed for

enhanced decision support, particularly

in mountainous regions [2-4 years].

Tests of existing regional modeling

capabilities, and definition of the

improved regional modeling capabilities

needed for enhanced decision support

[2-4 years and beyond].

Improved public health decision support

for major climate-modulated infectious

disease threats in the United States,

including mosquito-borne viral disease,

Hantavirus, and Valley Fever [2-4 years].

Analysis of historical records in target

areas to gain a better understanding of

past and current climate variability across

all time-scales for use in sensitivity

analyses of existing and planned physical

infrastructure [2-4 years and beyond].

Assessments of potential effects of climate

change and land-use change on water

and vector-borne diseases [2-4 years].

Assessment of the potential effects of

climate change, land-use change, and UV

radiation on aquatic ecosystems

[2-4 years].

ILLUSTRATIVE RESOURCES TO BE

DEVELOPED FOR ADAPTIVE

MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT

BOX 11-3 
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development

the improvement in performance of solutions that result from

integrating research-quality observations with research-quality

predictions and outlooks into operational decision support

tools.

Two case studies of adaptive management decision support,

summarized in Boxes 11-4 and 11-5, illustrate the transition of

decision support analyses into the type of operational management

resources anticipated by the CCSP Decision Support Resource

development goals.

Policy-related questions regarding climate change typically arise

from numerous sources, for example from:

• Consideration of climate change policy within federal government

117

This case study describes research and

assessment activities undertaken to better

understand the cause of outbreaks of

hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS)

in the southwestern United States in the

1990s.The research and assessment efforts

led to pilot production and evaluation of

risk maps, which were then used by

public health officials for on-the-ground

interventions to prevent disease outbreaks

and protect public health.This study

illustrates how multidisciplinary, placebased research and assessment, conducted

in response to questions raised by a

particular user group (public health

officials), can lead to the development of

products (risk maps) that successfully

increase regional adaptive capacity

(enhanced public health care).

Problem Formulation

In 1993, a disease characterized by acute

respiratory distress with a high death rate

(greater than 50%) among previously

healthy persons was identified in the

southwestern United States.This disease,

HPS, was traced to a virus maintained

and transmitted primarily within

populations of a common native rodent,

the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus).

Public health officials wanted to understand

the cause of the outbreak so they could

develop effective techniques for intervening

and preventing the disease.

Researchers hypothesized that the

outbreak was due in part to the unusual

weather in 1991-1992 associated with

the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Unseasonable rains in 1991 and 1992

during the usually dry spring and summer,

and the mild winter of 1992, were

thought to have created favorable

conditions for an increase in local

rodent populations. It was suggested

that a cascading series of events from

weather—through changes in vegetation,

to virus maintenance and transmission

within rodent populations—culminated

in changes in human disease risk from

HPS.

The Assessment

A study explored this hypothesis by

comparing the environmental

characteristics of sites where people

were infected with those sites where

people were not infected.The study

used a retrospective epidemiologic

approach to risk assessment. Satellite

imagery (Landsat Thematic Mapper

images), combined with epidemiologic

surveillance, retrospectively identified

areas at high risk for HPS associated

with Peromyscus populations over broad

geographic regions during the 1993

outbreak.Thematic Mapper data

identified environmental conditions

approximately 1 year before the outbreak

that were measurably different near HPS

sites than in rural, populated sites where

the disease did not occur.

Pilot Production and

Evaluation of Risk Maps as a

Decision Support Tool

The assessment revealed that

environmental conditions near HPS sites

varied with the presence or absence of

ENSO.The geographic extent and level

of predicted HPS risk were higher during

ENSO, supporting the view that El Niño

may increase the likelihood of HPS

outbreaks.

It was then determined that high-risk

areas for HPS can be predicted more than

6 months in advance based on satellitegenerated risk maps of climate-dependent land cover. Predicted risk paralleled

vegetative growth, supporting the

hypothesis that heavy 1992 rainfall due

to El Niño was associated with higher

rodent populations that triggered the

Hantavirus outbreak in 1993. Landsat

satellite remote-sensing images from

1995, a non-El Niño “control” year,

showed low risk in the region, whereas

the images from the 1998 strong El Niño

again showed high risk areas as in

1992-1993.Trapping mice in the field

validated the satellite-generated risk

maps with mouse populations directly

related to risk level, with a correlation

factor of over 0.90. Risk classification

also was consistent with the numbers of

HPS cases in 1994, 1996, 1998, and 1999.

Next-Generation

Integrated Knowledge

This information was used to develop an

early warning system, with intervention

strategies designed to avoid exposure.

These strategies, developed in partnership

with the Centers for Disease Control

and Prevention (CDC) and the Indian

Health Service, are already being

implemented by the U.S. Department of

Health and Human Services for disease

prevention in the southwest.

HANTAVIRUS PULMONARY SYNDROME IN THE

SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES

BOX 11-4

Goal 3: Develop and evaluate methods (scenario

evaluations, integrated analyses, alternative analytical

approaches) to support climate change policymaking

and demonstrate these methods with case studies.
Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Wildland fires burn millions of acres each

year and major resources are committed to

fuel (live and dead vegetation) treatment,

fire prevention, and fire suppression.

Effective decision support products and

tools can improve resource allocation

decisions and maintain a high standard of

safety for firefighters and the public.The

fire-climate assessment tool, which is in

essence a structured process, allows fire

and fuels specialists and fire weather

meteorologists in each of the National

Interagency Fire Center’s eleven

Geographic Area Coordination Centers

(GACCs) to work with climatologists to

develop GACC-level assessments of fire

risk at seasonal to shorter time scales.

The tool also allows Predictive Services

staff to develop and update a national

map and discussion of fire potential for

the fire season each year.

Problem Formulation

• La Niña conditions prompted the

first climate-fire-society stakeholder

workshops in 2000.These annual

workshops have established a dialogue

between stakeholders (fire managers

and decisionmakers) and climatologists.

• The workshops evolved over 3 years,

refining the contribution of climate

information to seasonal fire outlooks

at the regional level and focusing on

“fire science,” including the nature of

the fire regime (frequency, size,

intensity); conditions in the natural

system (adaptive ecosystems,

vegetation, fuels, watershed, soil,

wildlife); and characteristics of the

human systems (property, economic

sectors affected, policy and land-use

planning, multi-agency jurisdictions).

• The workshop process is supported

by interdisciplinary teams of research

scientists interested in focusing climate

impacts research on information and

insights essential to decision challenges

influenced by climate variability and

change.

Research Modules

• Design and communication of climate

information and forecasts useful for fire

management involves collaboration

between decisionmakers and scientists

in the conduct of research to

improve institutional capacity to

integrate scientific information and

predictions into planning and

operations; analysis of individual

stakeholder perceptions of fire risk

and of their capabilities and

willingness to use scientific

information in their decision

processes; and identification of the

factors (environmental, economic,

and public health) that are most

relevant in the context of overall

public good, as viewed across

geographic and agency boundaries.

• Climate and ecological processes

including improving understanding

of the spatial variability of fire.

Recent investigations have found

strong associations between the

Palmer Drought Severity Index

(PDSI) several months to 2 years

earlier and fire season severity.

Correlating anomalous wildfire

frequency and extent with the PDSI

illustrates the importance of prior

and accumulated precipitation

anomalies to future wildfire season

severity.

• Risk assessment and mitigation

including strategic planning for fire

use (i.e., prescribed burns and

allowing selected fires to burn) and

fire suppression; improving

predictive capabilities based on

improved understanding of

relationships between wildland fire

and climate before, during, and after

events; and determination of how

science can inform development of

wildland fire objectives important

to interagency preparedness

planning.

• Development of an integrated model

called Fire-Climate-Society (FCS-1)

to provide a planning tool, accessible

to fire managers and community

members, that would integrate the

climate, fuels, fire history, and

human dimensions of wildfire

behavior for strategic management.

Next-Generation

Integrated Knowledge

The objective is to develop an

understanding of the interactions among

climate, ecology (e.g., fuel load), and

human factors (e.g., real estate, land use,

recreation, conservation, jurisdiction, law)

such that decision support insights reflect

the true “multiple-stressor” realities of

wildland fire risk and management.

Particularly important are questions

such as:

• What federal/state policies and

programs increase fire risks and

severity; what policies pose barriers

to adoption of innovations such as

new decision support tools?

• What are the scales of impacts

(temporal and spatial) that influence

fire regimes?

• What are the connections between

multi-year drought and fire risk?

Pilot Product

Development and Evaluation

• A new Predictive Services program

has been launched to anticipate

where fires are most likely to occur

in order to allocate the appropriate

firefighting resources to these areas.

Geographic area predictive services

units, established by the 2000

National Fire Plan, are tasked with

integrating information about climate,

weather, fire danger, and firefighting

resources to provide decision support

to fire managers on the location,

timing, and severity of fire potential.

• The National Wildland Fire Outlook

is the compilation of the 11

geographic area outlooks generated

at the National Seasonal Assessment

Workshop, and provides the first

national-level, interagency, climatebased seasonal fire outlook.

In the spirit of the adaptive learning

approach built into many of the regional

projects, pilot products are inspiring a

new round of research into understanding

decision structures and constraints in

order to transfer knowledge gained in this

particular decision support experience.

CLIMATE-ECOSYSTEM-FIRE MANAGEMENT

BOX 11-5
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development

• Proposals advanced by private and non-governmental organizations

• Preparation for international negotiations

• Consideration of legislative proposals

• Priority-setting processes for science and technology programs.

The CCSP will work in close collaboration with the Climate Change

Technology Program (CCTP) to develop evaluations of relevant

policy questions that incorporate up-to-date knowledge of both

scientific and technology issues.The CCSP will focus on two

objectives in this area: (1) developing scientific syntheses and

analytical frameworks (“resources”) to support integrated evaluations,

including explicit characterization of uncertainties to guide appropriate

interpretation, and (2) initially conducting a limited number of case

studies with evaluation of the lessons learned, to guide future analyses.

Objective 3.1: Develop scientific syntheses and

analytic frameworks to support integrated evaluations,

including explicit evaluation and characterization of

uncertainties

One of the challenges of developing scientific syntheses is providing

a systematic way of integrating knowledge across disciplines, each

having their own methodologies, resolutions, and degrees of certainty

of scientific information. Meeting this challenge requires defining

and meeting information needs across these borders, and developing

methods and approaches to put information from different disciplines

in compatible formats. Integrated models are an important tool for

synthesis and comparative evaluation because they impose stringent

standards of cross-disciplinary consistency and intelligibility.The

CCSP supports the development of a number of integrated modeling

frameworks that are useful for exploring many dimensions of climate

and global change.The CCSP will also adopt other approaches for

synthesis, including integration of expert knowledge across the

relevant fields.

The CCSP will structure its syntheses and integrated analyses of

policy questions related to climate variability and change using four

types of approaches and drawing on research results produced

throughout all areas of the program.These four approaches are:

1) Evaluations of net greenhouse gas flux and uptake using a variety

of methods

2) Climate system analyses to study sensitivities and quantify

ranges of climate variability and change

3) Analyses of the effects of climate variability and change

4) Integrated analytic frameworks.

Evaluation of net greenhouse gas flux and uptake in the Earth system

(including human activities, the land surface, ecosystems, the

atmosphere, and the oceans).The CCSP will use several methods to

evaluate historical, current, and projected future patterns of

greenhouse gas flux uptake, and consequent concentrations.These

methods include state-of-science syntheses for emissions and carbon

cycle information, evaluation of the effects of future technology

adoption in the United States and globally (in collaboration with the

CCTP), use of expert working groups (including both government

and non-government specialists) to evaluate historical and projected

greenhouse gas emission information and uncertainties (including

uncertainties arising from different assumptions about human driving

forces), and various inverse-calculation methods to verify greenhouse

gas flux rates compared to recent and current observations of

greenhouse gas levels. Consistent with overall CCSP guidelines,

these analyses will be developed in response to specific questions,

and will be released for public review prior to publication in final

form.

Climate system analyses.The CCSP will examine the range of natural

variability (short- and long-term), responsiveness of the climate

system to changes in net greenhouse gas fluxes and concentrations,

and the potential for abrupt climate changes. CCSP analyses will

use analytic approaches to improve the evaluation of uncertainty in

important variables. It is well-recognized that there are significant

questions about climate model sensitivity, as well as questions about

verification of climate model projections when compared to longterm observation records.The CCSP will prepare an updated

analysis on the uses and limitations of climate models for various

policy support applications, and this CCSP analysis will guide the

use of climate models in other CCSP analyses. In addition to

computer-based climate models, several other analytical techniques

will be used by the CCSP in developing policy-support analyses.

These include atmospheric and oceanographic process research,

historical and analog evaluations, and various data analysis and

projection techniques. The CCSP supports a major program of

climate model development and verification (see Chapter 10), and

results from this program will be used in support of syntheses as

appropriate.

Analyses of the effects of climate variability and change. Evaluation of the

potential impacts associated with different atmospheric concentrations

of greenhouse gases and aerosols is an important input to weigh the

costs and benefits associated with different climate policies. Further

research is required to integrate our understanding of the range of

effects of different concentration levels and to develop methods for

aggregating and comparing those impacts across different sectors

and settings.Working with external advisory groups and the broad

range of CCSP scientists, the CCSP-supported research will analyze

a range of possible climate change impacts determined from climate

system modeling and arising from different assumptions about natural

and human influences, including (among many others) implications

for agriculture, forestry, drought, fire, water resources, fisheries,

coastal zones, and built environments such as ports. It will also

address (to the extent possible given uncertainties) the potential

implications of various response options for both the climate system

and the economy.

Integrated analytic frameworks. Integrated analysis of climate change is

essential for bringing together research from many contributing

disciplines and applying it to gain comparative insight into policyrelated questions. Full integration of information including research

on human activities, greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, land-use

and land-cover change, cycling of carbon and other nutrients, climatic

responses, and impacts on people, the economy, and resources is

necessary for analysis of many important questions about the

potential implications (both economic and environmental) of

different greenhouse gas concentrations and various technology

portfolios. Development and use of techniques for scenario and

comparative analysis is useful for exploring the implications of

different hypothetical policies for curbing emissions growth or

encouraging adaptation. Answers from integrated analysis can only

reflect the existing state of knowledge in component studies, but it

119
Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

is important to develop frameworks and resources for integration,

exercise them, and learn from analysis of the results. CCSP will

encourage innovation and development of approaches to integrated

analysis, and test these approaches in case study evaluations.

Evaluation of uncertainty. For all four of the analytical approaches

described above, the issue of evaluation and communication of

uncertainty and levels of confidence is fundamental. Uncertainties

can arise from lack of knowledge; from problems with data, models,

terminology, or assumptions; and from other sources. Integrated

models are strong tools for examining uncertainty through repeated

model runs with variation of key parameters. Use of scenarios,

sensitivity analysis, and the specification of probability distributions

for many inputs coupled with model runs are among the ways in

which integrated models can be used to explore uncertainty. CCSP

will use these and other techniques to evaluate uncertainty, and

couple this analysis with its commitment to reporting levels of

confidence and uncertainty clearly and transparently.The approaches

to uncertainty evaluation and communication will enable users of

CCSP analyses to understand the uses and limits of the information.

As indicated elsewhere in this plan, broad guidelines for consideration

of scientific uncertainty by the CCSP include the following:

• Uncertainty by itself (i.e., without regard to its magnitude in each

specific case) should not prevent the development of analyses that

may provide useful information for policy considerations.

• The magnitude (or importance) of uncertainty should be directly

reported as a key element of analytical results in all cases where

policy-supporting analyses are conducted.

Analytic approaches.Within the four analytical domains described

above, a variety of approaches will be used and tailored to the study

of a particular set of policy questions.The approaches are a means for

examining proposed courses of action that incorporate knowledge of

important key factors and uncertainty. In addition to development

of decision support-related resources, the CCSP will also support

research that furthers development of resources for integrated and

comparative analysis, including:

• Use of historical climates (climate analogs)

• Techniques for posing and analyzing “If ..., then...” questions,

and reporting analytical results in the form of probability

distributions of possible outcomes, thereby incorporating

uncertainty information directly in the projected outcomes

• Models and qualitative frameworks for integrating scientific

and technical information to compare environmental and

socioeconomic effects of alternative response options

• Techniques for developing and analyzing scenarios using only a few

of the most important variables (parametric analysis techniques)

• Techniques for “inverse analysis” that start from the study of

temperature, precipitation, and other climate inputs required to

maintain a system or activity, then identify rates or levels of

climate change that would lead to discontinuities or thresholds.

An emphasis will be placed on the development of the greenhouse gas

net flux scenarios through collaboration with CCTP.The distinctive

feature of scenarios is that they integrate knowledge from the full

range of relevant sources into a consistent description of potential

future events.The specific variables incorporated in scenario

development depend on the question being addressed. Scenarios for

atmospheric chemistry, climate, impacts, adaptation, and mitigation

models all require different techniques and variables. Scenarios will

be constructed using up-to-date information on projections for key

variables (e.g., demography, technology characteristics and costs,

and economic growth and characteristics) and the relationship of

key driving forces to environmental change (e.g., land use and land

cover). CCSP will coordinate its scenario development plans with

CCTP plans for analysis of different plausible technology portfolios

and with the scenario efforts of the IPCC.

Objective 3.2: Conduct a limited number of case

study analyses and evaluate the lessons learned in

order to guide subsequent analyses

During the next 2 years, CCSP will conduct a limited number of

case study integrated analyses using the approaches described above.

For each case study analysis, a project team will be established that

is responsible for design and implementation of the decision support

methodology and products. Diverse input will be solicited to frame

the questions, determine analytic methodologies to be used, identify

needed observations to address the problem, and determine what

resulting analyses and products are to be prepared. Stakeholder

involvement will be sought throughout the case studies to aid in

question development, selection of analytical methods, review of

products, and guidance for communication of results. CCSP will

provide support and coordination of the scientific community,

stakeholder, and public interactions. End products of each case

studied will include appropriate assessment reports, as well as the

related “lessons learned” documents.

The lessons learned during the decision resource case studies

conducted in the next 2 years will be used to guide the definition of

a wider set of analyses to be completed in a 2- to 4-year time period.

Both the initial and subsequent case studies will be specified (e.g.,

by choice of technical issues addressed, and by parameters selected

for analysis) to reflect relevant climate variability and change issues.

An illustrative case study demonstrating the application of the policy

decision support process to an examination of technology mitigation

is summarized in Box 11-6. Note that this illustration does not

constitute a specific plan for analysis. As mentioned previously,

CCSP will present specific plans for decision support analyses in

separate announcements when ready, and will solicit public comment

on each proposed plan.

Other case studies being considered for short-term (within 2 years)

or longer term (2-4 years) analysis include:

• Possible climate and ecosystem responses to long-term

greenhouse gas stabilization at various specified levels

• Projected climate, socioeconomic, and environmental outcomes

of various carbon sequestration initiatives adopted both in the

United States and globally

• Application of scientific information on the carbon cycle,

ecosystems, and other research elements for the development of

guidelines for crediting carbon sequestration activities—for

example, as related to land use and soil type, cover species type,

management practices, and so on

• Possible outcomes (in terms of projected greenhouse gas

concentrations and climate system response) projected for various

scenarios of new energy technology penetration both in the

United States and globally

• Risk analyses related to various examples of abrupt climate change

120
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development

121

Evaluate Two Categories

of Scenarios

1) What combinations of technologies

can be expected to provide energy

consistent with different emission

levels between now and 2050? 

2) What are the range of plausible

consequences (on the climate system

and socioeconomic parameters) of

different emission scenarios reflecting

the technology options responsive to

the previous question? 

Analysis Planning

A project workshop—with expert

stakeholders including climate scientists,

energy technology engineers and scientists,

energy economists, and industry,

government, and non-government

organization representatives would be

held (late 2003/early 2004) to gain

alignment and organize cooperative

research on deliverables. Additional

project working groups would be formed

for continued dialogue throughout the

project time frame. A draft study plan,

including competitive proposal processes

and federal in-house research assignments,

and a timeline for completion of tasks

would be prepared by early 2004. CCSP

would post the draft plan for public

comment on its website,

<www.climatescience.gov>.

Scenarios for Technology

Performance with Alternative

Profiles

Each profile would include technologies

that are presently part of the global

energy system and that are expected to

have their performance improved over

time, as well as new technology options

presently under development (e.g., carbon

capture and disposal, hydrogen systems,

fusion energy, and biotechnology).

Performance improvements with

alternative technology options would

also be explored. Estimates of potential

benefits in terms of greenhouse gas

emissions, energy security, and oil

dependence would be assessed. The

scenarios would also explore the potential

for unintended consequences—both

positive and negative. For example, if

wind energy were extracted over large

areas, it could reduce conventional air

pollution as well as reduce greenhouse

gas emissions, but it could also conceivably

affect regional atmospheric circulation.

Interaction with CCTP would be

essential in developing these baseline

scenario profiles. Incorporation of

current scientific information about

socioeconomic, technological, climatic,

and environmental factors would be

undertaken, with a characterization of

the uncertainty in the scenarios.The

scenarios would be completed by the

end of 2004.

Modeled Climate Change for Each

Greenhouse Gas Scenario, including

Dynamic Carbon Cycle and

Reasonable Projections of Land Use

This climate modeling task would be the

responsibility of the large U.S. modeling

groups.The model runs would also

estimate the uptake of greenhouse gases

by natural systems.This modeling must

be informed by the results of carbon

cycle research.The veracity of the model

simulations for carbon sources and sinks

needs to be tested ahead of time by

comparisons to historical observations

of the carbon cycle and the contribution

of land-use changes.The model results

would likely be presented in probabilistic

form, and would be required to achieve

agreed confidence limits to be considered

usable for decision support.The large

baseline computer modeling would be

completed by mid-2005.

Modeled Environmental

Impacts on Soil Moisture,

Streamflow, and Vegetation

It is likely that one or both of the highend U.S. climate models used for these

studies would include fully interactive

hydrologic-carbon-biogeochemical

cycles (i.e., the major natural systems

being impacted by climate).Workshops

would be held to engage the broader

community of researchers studying

climate impacts in the analysis of these

experiments, and provide guidance as to

how process-driven impacts models can

be interfaced with these simulations.The

baseline global impacts modeling would be

completed with probability distributions

of projected outcomes by the end of

2005. Higher resolution (50-km or

greater) simulations may be available for

portions of the baseline scenarios starting

in FY06, but only if such higher resolution

models are shown to have useful

confidence limits by that time.

Analyses, Assessments, and Reports

Throughout the process, several interim

analyses, assessments, and reports would

be generated. Example products for this

case could include the following:

• Synthesis report on the scenario

development and the characterization

and evaluation of the uncertainties in

the scenarios (2005).

• Evaluation of the impacts on the

climate system for the baseline and

alternative technology pathways.

Report on the analysis of the scenarios

of response of the climate system to

various emission scenarios with

emphasis on intercomparison of the

different pathways (2006).

• Analysis of the scenarios of

environmental responses to those

response scenarios of the different

climate states. Reports on the intercomparison of those responses to the

different climate states. One example

may be an evaluation of the potential

for carbon sequestration in different

ecosystems and agricultural systems,

including initial greenhouse gas

accounting analyses and guidelines

for agriculture and forestry (2006).

• Final synthesis report on the intercomparison of different technology

pathways with the baseline pathways

including an analysis of potential

environmental benefits and associated

costs of each scenario (2007).

TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO CASE STUDY: AN ILLUSTRATIVE

CASE STUDY (IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CCTP)

BOX 11-6
Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• Projected climate and ecosystem outcomes related to significant

changes in land use and land cover, both in the United States and

globally

• Analysis of adaptation strategies related to specified changes in

climate or ecosystem parameters.

CCSP management and advisory processes will ensure implementation

of an open and credible process for development of decision support

resources.

Management Structure

Leadership and direction will be provided by the CCSP interagency

governing body, working with representatives of the Interagency

Working Group on Climate Change Science and Technology

(IWGCCST) and CCTP to:

• Select syntheses or assessments to be conducted by the program,

and provide oversight for these activities

• Review needs for decision support focused on adaptive

management and promote development of CCSP research and

resources to respond to these needs

• Periodically identify and define topics of importance to national

decisionmaking to be addressed by the CCSP case studies of

integrated analyses and scenario evaluations

• Establish external advisory mechanisms.

CCSP decision support activities will be implemented through an

interagency working group with management and coordination

support from the Climate Change Science Program Office

(CCSPO). Specific responsibilities of the working group

include:

• Carry out approved activities (e.g., identify resource requirements,

develop implementation plans) under supervision of the CCSP

interagency governing body

• Evaluate program needs and develop initiatives that respond to

these needs

• Maintain an inventory of ongoing decision support and assessment

activities within the CCSP agencies

• Coordinate agency activities

• Support advisory mechanisms as directed by the CCSP, including

workshops, committees, or NRC activities.

CCSPO will support development of decision support activities,

under the supervision of the CCSP interagency governing committee.

CCSPO will be responsible for helping to coordinate the preparation

of assessment and synthesis products; connecting the assessment

activities, lessons learned, and decision tools development to broader

interests and communities; and evaluating, reporting, and

communicating results from the decision support activities.

Stakeholder Input and Evaluation

CCSP decision support activities will be conducted openly with

input from external technical experts and other stakeholders.

Advisory processes will be structured to meet specific requirements

for each activity. Past experience has indicated that open framing of

the questions to be addressed and methods to be adopted are crucial

to establishing an open process and credible product. Ongoing

advisory processes will provide independent review and oversight and

ensure that products developed bring in all relevant perspectives.

Independent evaluation of both products and processes will be

included as a component of decision support efforts to ensure that

future activities are improved by consideration and application of

experience garnered through initial case study activities.

A first step that will be taken in developing stakeholder input is to

hold a focused workshop to provide comments on (1) initial selection

of topics/questions for policy decision support activities; (2) possible

structures of “If ..., then...” scenario analyses and other approaches

for providing insight into the identified topics; (3) suggestions

regarding the appropriate role of CCSP-supported research in

fostering problem-oriented/solution-based adaptive management

decision support; and (4) suggestions for ongoing external advisory

and review mechanisms.

122

Decision Support Management Strategy

Lead Authors

Susan Avery, NOAA and CCSPO

James R. Mahoney, DOC

Richard Moss, CCSPO

Jae Edmonds, PNNL

Shahid Habib, NASA

John Houghton, DOE

Claudia Nierenberg, NOAA

Joel Scheraga, USEPA

Contributors

James Andrews, ONR

Ron Birk, NASA

David Goodrich, NOAA

John Haynes, NASA

Ants Leetmaa, NOAA

Robert Marlay, DOE

Robert O’Connor, NSF

Rick Piltz, CCSPO

CHAPTER 11 AUTHORS
CHAPTER

123

CHAPTER CONTENTS

For each of six overarching goals, this chapter

introduces objectives that provide products and

milestones to be addressed in the coming decade

based upon current knowledge.

Goal 1: Design, develop, deploy, integrate, and

sustain observation components into a

comprehensive system.

Goal 2:Accelerate the development and deployment

of observing and monitoring elements needed for

decision support.

Goal 3: Provide stewardship of the observing system.

Goal 4: Integrate modeling activities with the

observing system.

Goal 5: Foster international cooperation to develop

a complete global observing system.

Goal 6: Manage the observing system with an

effective interagency structure.

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 specifically calls for

“global measurements, establishing worldwide observations

necessary to understand the physical, chemical, and biological

processes responsible for changes in the Earth system on

all relevant spatial and time scales,” as well as “documentation

of global change, including the development of mechanisms

for recording changes that will actually occur in the Earth

system over the coming decades.”The program continues

to respond to this call by following a strategy for the

development and deployment of a global, integrated, and

sustained observing system to address science requirements

and decision support needs at appropriate accuracies and

space and time resolutions.

The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) strategy for

observations and monitoring includes guiding principles,

identification of priorities, and effective management of

available resources.The purpose of this chapter is to

describe how all the disparate observations described by the

CCSP plan will be systematically organized and managed to

improve our understanding of the climate system.The data

management discussion that follows (see Chapter 13)

describes the plan for archival and distribution of these data.

The CCSP observations and monitoring component seeks to

address the following overarching question:

How can we provide active stewardship for an observation

system that will document the evolving state of the climate

system, allow for improved understanding of its changes,

and contribute to improved predictive capability for society?

The development of space-based and in situ global observing

capabilities was a primary focus of the program’s first decade.

Several new Earth-observing satellites, in situ networks, reference

sites, and process studies are now producing unprecedented highquality data that have led to major new insights about the climate

system.The observing system for the future will build upon this

success. For the purposes of this document, surface-based remotesensing observations, as well as aircraft or suborbital measurements—

in addition to direct observations within the atmosphere, ocean,

ice, or land—will be considered as in situ measurements, and any

references to in situ measurement networks should be considered as

applying to networks using these techniques wherever appropriate.

The challenge for the coming decade is to maintain current capabilities,

implement new elements, make operational the elements that need

to be sustained, and integrate these observations into a comprehensive

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System 12
Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

global system to address the objectives of the CCSP research elements

and decision support activities. Fundamental questions about the

climate system and societal benefits that can be addressed are

described in Chapters 3 through 11; these provide the basis for the

observing system design and implementation. Illustrative examples

of CCSP observation needs and milestones that address the research

questions are described in Appendix 12.2. In addition, the overall

climate observing system must address the five basic integrating

goals for CCSP outlined in the introductory chapter:

• Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and

environment, including its natural variability, and improve

understanding of the causes of observed variability and change

• Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in

the Earth’s climate and related systems

• Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate

and related systems may change in the future

• Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural

and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and

related global changes

• Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge

to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability

and change.

A system that integrates atmospheric, oceanographic, terrestrial,

cryospheric, and cross-cutting observations does not currently exist

per se. However, many components are available. For example, the

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is a fairly well documented

but not completely implemented international approach that has

components in place to satisfy some climate requirements (see

GCOS, 2003). GCOS is intended to provide a focused set of

observations from a subset of established measurement sites that are

considered to have a sufficient climate history and spatial distribution.

The system discussed here, however, goes beyond GCOS. CCSP has

expanded the initial inventory of important climate observations

(see Appendix 12.1) to encompass the needs of research on and

applications to the global cycles of carbon, water, energy, and

biogeochemical constituents; atmospheric composition; and changes

in land use.

Building on the CCSP mission, the United States has also taken a

leading role in fostering the development of a more broadly defined

and integrated global observing system for all Earth parameters—

for example, including geological as well as climate information.

The United States hosted a ministerial-level Earth Observation

Summit in July 2003, with participation by many developed and

developing nations as well as many intergovernmental and

international nongovernmental groups. This summit initiated a

10-year commitment to design, implement, and operate an expanded

global observing system that builds on the major observational

programs currently operated by the U.S. and many other governments

and international organizations. CCSP agencies have provided the

leadership, definition, and support for the Earth Observation

Summit, and CCSP will closely integrate the U.S. observation and

data management programs with the international programs

launched at the summit.

The global observation system needed to fully implement CCSP

includes the evolution of the observing capability provided through

the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the

operationally oriented monitoring systems routinely provided by

several federal agencies.The latter were never included as part of

USGCRP, and may or may not be included as part of CCSP in

budget inventories. In fact, as noted below, a critical issue associated

with the implementation of the observing system for CCSP is the

transitioning of research observations, typically made through

USGCRP, into operations, not currently included as part of USGCRP

(see Objective 1.3). Any consideration of budgets associated with

global observations should be based on those for all the component

programs, and not the historic USGCRP budget.

The basic elements of a global observing system must consist of:

• Routine and continuing measurements of selected variables,

collected using established principles

• Shorter term exploratory observations carried out with satellites,

process-oriented field campaigns with in situ techniques, and

other, finite duration, research observations, collected using

established principles

• A comprehensive and reliable distribution network and longterm archive

• Analysis and integration activities, including the use of fourdimensional (space, time) data assimilation and scientifically

validated models.

These elements must be managed by an effective national entity,

and coordinated at the international level.The management must

have the capability to establish observing protocols, provide oversight,

address deficiencies, and mobilize resources as required to maintain

the integrity of the entire end-to-end system. A major challenge

for CCSP in this decade will be the transition of many observation

elements developed in a research mode to a sustained and operational

124

“Knowledge of the climate system and projections about the

future climate are derived from fundamental physics and

chemistry through models and observations of the atmosphere

and the climate system. Climate models are built using the best

scientific knowledge of the processes that operate within the

climate system, which in turn are based on observations of these

systems.A major limitation of these model forecasts for use

around the world is the paucity of data available to evaluate

the ability of coupled models to simulate important aspects of

past climate. In addition, the observing system available today is

a composite of observations that neither provide the information

nor the continuity in the data needed to support measurements

of climate variables.Therefore, above all, it is essential to ensure

the existence of a long-term observing system that provides a

more definitive observational foundation to evaluate decadal- to

century-scale variability and change.This observing system must

include observations of key state variables such as temperature,

precipitation, humidity, pressure, clouds, sea ice and snow cover,

sea level,sea surface temperature, carbon fluxes, and soil moisture.

Additionally, more comprehensive regional measurements of

greenhouse gases would provide critical information about their

local and regional source strengths.”

Climate Change Science:

An Analysis of Some Key Questions (NRC, 2001a)
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

environment [e.g., NASA research satellites to National Polarorbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and

some in situ networks].The resulting global system must obviously

engage many countries in a cooperative enterprise. Developing such

a system presents a daunting challenge that must be met to provide

essential information for decisionmakers.

In order to move toward a global observing system, CCSP will

focus on six goals:

1) Design, develop, deploy, integrate, and sustain observation

components into a comprehensive system

2) Accelerate the development and deployment of observing and

monitoring elements needed for decision support

3) Provide stewardship of the observing system

4) Integrate modeling activities with the observing system

5) Foster international cooperation to develop

a complete global observing system

6) Manage the observing system with an

effective interagency structure.

A system is the integration of interrelated,

interacting, or interdependent components

into a complex whole.The path to an overall

observing system must address a number of

key issues in addition to the observation

components themselves, including the priorities

for development, the implementation strategy,

assessment, utilization, cooperation with other

providers of environmental measurements,

data management, international development,

and system management. Some of these

activities are considered in this goal, but others

are of sufficient complexity that they are a

goal unto themselves and are discussed later in

this chapter.

Prioritization. Observing elements are in place

within existing research and operational

programs that partially fulfill the requirements

for meeting these objectives. Other key

sensors and observing networks still need to

be developed and implemented. Priorities for

these augmentations are required because resources are limited.The

CCSP research element questions and decision support goals provide

the basis for determining priorities. In CCSP implementation plans,

the research and decision support elements will provide a link

between research question or decision support goal, measurement

requirements, and the observation elements that meet the

requirements.The prioritization criteria include: benefit to society,

scientific return, partnership opportunities, technology readiness,

program balance, and implementation of the climate monitoring

principles (see Appendix 12.4).The management of the program will

recommend priorities in consultation with the scientific community

using the management mechanisms outlined in Chapter 16.

Evaluation.A key lesson learned over the past decade is that observing

systems and networks must be implemented in a way that allows

125

Goal 1: Design, develop, deploy,

integrate, and sustain observation

components into a comprehensive

system.

380

370

360

350

340

CO2 (μmol mol-1)

60¡N

30¡N

0¡

30¡S

60¡S

90¡S 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

90¡N

60¡N

30¡N

0¡

30¡S

60¡S

90¡S

100¡E 140¡E 180¡ 140¡W 100¡W 60¡W 20¡W 20¡E 60¡E 100¡E

Network

Observatory

Aircraft

Tower open symbol represents inactive site

b) Distribution of In Situ Stations

a) Ten-Year Record of Atmospheric CO2

Figure 12-1: (a) Ten-year record of atmospheric

carbon dioxide (CO2) at a variety of stations as a

function of latitude, and (b) distribution of in situ

stations collecting data on CO2 and other

greenhouse gases. Source: Pieter Tans, NOAA

CMDL. For more information, see Annex C.
Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

flexibility as both requirements and technology evolve.Therefore,

the program will regularly assess the science and decision support

requirements and propose modifications to the observing systems

required for CCSP to execute its research plans.This process

will involve the scientific community and program managers

working on each research element, as well as those involved in

modeling, scientific assessment, and other integrative activities (see

Goal 6).

Cooperation. Many important observing systems are developed and

operated by organizations that are not formal participants in CCSP,

making the development of strong cooperative relationships that

extend beyond the current CCSP a necessity. CCSP will work with

observing system partners and the scientific community to identify

climate requirements for these observing systems and to set priorities

in light of available resources and competing needs.

Objective 1.1: Develop a requirements-based design

for the climate observing system

A requirements-based design will be developed to identify baseline

and minimum requirements that will address CCSP research element

questions and decision support goals. U.S. needs and contributions

will be weighed in the global context of the requirements and

contributions of other nations and coordinated with them in a

manner that will lead to a global system.The most efficient and

effective observation elements and networks will be selected that

will meet the requirements.

Objective 1.2: Stabilize and extend existing

observational capabilities

CCSP will maintain and improve basic research observing facilities,

networks, and systems (both space-based and in situ). Climatequality data requires long-term continuous records (see Chapter 4,

Figure 4-1). It is critical to maintain records required to answer

research questions before they are lost for other reasons (see

Figure 12-2). Long-term observations require a focus on

maintenance and replacement to sustain the capability at a sufficient

level of accuracy to detect climate change over decades.To meet

this objective, CCSP will:

• Continue satellite missions (see Figure 12-3) that are critical to

answering the research element questions and upgrade the quality

of their data to climate standards

• Extend and stabilize in situ networks for global coverage with

consistent data quality, including moored, drifting, and shipbased networks in the ocean; surface and upper air networks in

the atmosphere; and the major terrestrial networks

• Provide a uniform global set of surface reference sites of key

ocean, land, atmosphere, and hydrology variables [see

Figure 12-1 as an example of a global system for carbon

dioxide (CO2)]

126

Active and Recently Discontinued Long-Term HCDN Streamflow Gaging Stations

Still Active in 2002

Discontinued since 1988

Figure 12-2: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) was compiled in 1988 and included 854 gauges that were active and

had at least 36 years of record. Stations that are still active are shown in green. Stations discontinued since 1988 are shown in red. These stations would

have had at least 50 years of record as of 2002, if they had been kept in operation. Source: William Kirby, Global Hydroclimatology Program, USGS.

For more information, see Annex C.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

• Provide careful calibration and overlapping operation of new

and old technology during transitions to maintain quality control

of data records

• Extend the capacity in terrestrial inventory programs to provide

comprehensive information for key ecosystems within the

United States.

Objective 1.3: Develop and implement a strategy

for the transition of proven capabilities to an

operational mode

The transition of proven research observation elements to sustained

or operational status will make these components more cost-effective

and sustainable for long-term benefit. CCSP will work toward an

effective integration for the planning and development of research

and operational systems. CCSP will develop a strategy to transition

from research to operations that will adhere to the climate monitoring

principles (see Appendix 12.4), including continuity, in order to

have the most benefit to its objectives. Management structures will

be developed to provide for a handoff from research management

to operational systems management.The operation management

will be responsible for continuing the research mission and producing

and delivering day-to-day operational results and products.

Objective 1.4: Incorporate climate and global change

observing requirements in operational programs at

the appropriate level

Operational observation networks continue to be the backbone of

climate system measurements.These networks, with only modest

incremental costs, will satisfy significant parts of the climate

observing requirements as described in the climate monitoring

principles (see Appendix 12.4). Scientific, as well as decision support,

oversight of operational systems for climate must be implemented

using the concept of Climate Data Science Teams described in

Goal 6 below.

Objective 1.5: Identify, develop, and implement

measurement improvements

CCSP must maintain a sustained research and technology

development program to address major deficiencies in observing

systems and the paleoclimate record identified in Chapters 3 to 9

(e.g., closing the budgets for carbon, energy, and water cycles;

integrating the coastal ocean monitoring systems; and completing

records about decadal- and century-scale climate variability prior to

the instrumental record).To the extent possible, new or improved

measurements will be integrated into existing networks so as to

minimize redundant operations and costs. Future global measurements

from satellites and regional in situ networks will be developed that

dramatically improve quality and vertical, spatial, and/or temporal

resolution, especially to enhance regional coverage for decision

support applications.

Objective 1.6: Continue intensive field missions

The science chapters have described and justified numerous field

studies that integrate airborne (in situ), surface, and satellite

observations over regional scales and durations from days to several

weeks.These intensive observation periods provide valuable data for

127

Outgoing Longwave Radiation (Wm-2) Reflected Solar Radiation (Wm-2)

100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200

Figure 12-3: For scientists to understand climate, they must also determine what drives the changes within the Earth’s radiation balance. From March 2000 to

May 2001, the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite measured some of these changes and produced new images that dynamically

show heat (thermal radiation) emitted to space from Earth’s surface and atmosphere (left sphere) and sunlight reflected back to space by the ocean, land,

aerosols, and clouds (right sphere). Source: CERES Project, NASA (<http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/ceres/ASDceres.html>).
Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

testing and validating satellite retrieval algorithms, and for the finescale resolution necessary to test, validate, and constrain physical

processes in climate models.These coordinated observation efforts

will need to become even more sophisticated as satellites evolve

towards formation flying, onboard processing, and smart sensor

technology. Aircraft remain a valuable platform for CCSP and

mechanisms to make efficient use of these facilities across the CCSP

agencies will be investigated.

Objective 1.7:Assess observing system performance

with uniform monitoring tools and

evaluation standards

A global effort of this magnitude must be managed as a system in

order to be effective. For agencies to assess the performance of the

observing system, an institutional mechanism must be put in place

to monitor the status of the globally distributed components and to

evaluate their combined capabilities.

CCSP, working with international partners, will develop a system

architecture for monitoring distributed global operations that

establishes and maintains links among the in situ and satellite elements

and the data and modeling activities that are essential components

of climate observation.The purpose is to provide a framework so

that the nation can manage its observing system more efficiently

and effectively, and:

• Provide an integrated view of the observing system linked to the

CCSP mission 

• Develop a more cost-effective observation system

• Allow all observations to be accessible by all customers when

needed 

• Provide a framework for examining future requirements and costs

• Allow for evolutionary improvements

• Identify gaps and overlaps

• Identify opportunities to migrate observations from the research

elements into a sustained operational status.

The guiding principles for development of this uniform interagency

and international monitoring capability include:

• Provide a system that is requirements-based

• Provide elements that are standards-based and interoperable

• Provide for system evolution that is minimally intrusive to other

national and international missions

• Provide ample margins to accommodate changing requirements

• Provide a basis for continual evaluation and evolution.

Objective 1.8: Generate climate information through

analysis and assimilation

Many countries have gathered climate system data to document climate

system variability using many different instrument types during the

past 150 years. In order to document and understand change from a

historical perspective, we need to develop global, comprehensive,

integrated, quality-controlled databases of climate system variables

based on historical or modern measurements, and provide the user

community with open and easy access to these databases.We must

integrate these records as far into the past as is practical to reduce

uncertainties in the climate trend estimates of individual parameters.

Our understanding of some of the changes in the physical climate

system over the past 50 or more years has improved because of systematic reprocessing and integration of climate observations using

state-of-the-art climate models and data assimilation technology.

This must be continued through a routine and iterative improvement

process that incorporates a rigorous research and validation

component.

Objective 1.9: Initiate or participate in end-to-end

pilot demonstrations of atmosphere, ocean, and

terrestrial hydrologic observing systems

The integration of satellite and in situ observing networks for

synthesis of the ocean, atmosphere, or terrestrial spheres in a

systematic manner will be addressed through focused pilot programs.

The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment, while not specifically

focused on climate issues, is an example of a pilot approach to the

synthesis of ocean observations.

Objective 1.10: Develop a requirements-based

program for collecting, integrating, and analyzing

social, economic, and health factors with

environmental change

Across the range of research on human response and consequences

to climate change there is a particularly strong need for the

integration of social, economic, and health data with environmental

data (see Chapter 9). Observations will be used to address gaps in

understanding, modeling, and quantifying the sensitivity and

vulnerability of human systems to global change and measuring the

capacity of human systems. Using retrospective analyses of

consequences of shifts in climate will also help model future ability

of hazard and resource management institutions to respond.

CCSP provides resources to develop observation systems and

processing and support systems that will lead to reliable and useful

products.These products will provide critical policy-neutral

information for decision support and policymakers in areas such as

climate and weather forecasting, human health, energy, environmental

monitoring, greenhouse gases, and natural resource management.

CCSP will enhance the existing long-term monitoring elements

with accelerated focused initiatives to provide a more definitive

observational foundation for determining the current state of the

climate. Many shortcomings of the current climate observing system

relate to understanding climate forcings. In addition, fundamental

observations for characterizing and understanding the state of the

climate are needed for the global ocean, atmosphere, land surface,

and ice variables. For the atmosphere, only half of the GCOS

Upper-Air Network (GUAN), established for climate purposes, has

been reporting regularly, and the GCOS Surface Network (GSN)

for climate has had similarly disappointing results.The ocean is

poorly observed below the surface, which limits our understanding

about the ocean’s response to a warming planet and its ability to

naturally sequester greenhouse gases. Over land, the spatial

heterogeneity requires detailed measurements and presents a major

challenge.

128

Goal 2: Accelerate the development and deployment

of observing and monitoring elements needed for

decision support.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

In the budget requests for the past 2 years (FY2003 and FY2004),

progress has been made to address many of these deficiencies, as

described in Appendix 12.3.The objectives in this goal outline

specific CCSP elements that will expand on this progress and support

a directed strategy to focus resources and accelerate observations

for climate change and decision support.

Objective 2.1: Complete the required atmosphere

and ocean observation elements needed for a

physical climate observing system

Within the climate monitoring arena, atmosphere and ocean

observation elements to measure the physical aspects of the climate

system are the most complete, and are ready to be brought together

as a system. For example, the detailed open ocean observing system

has been designed at both national and international levels through

numerous community workshops, and implementation is about

40% complete (see Figure 12-4).The atmospheric system, which is

a mixture of both climate and non-climate elements, has been

recently examined (GCOS, 2003) and needs support for fixing

degradations, sustaining current capabilities, and adding improvements.

An accelerated effort to complete these two subsystems will

improve understanding of climate characterization, forcing, and

prediction, as well as facilitate the implementation and testing of

the interagency management of complete observing systems.

Focused new data management practices are being developed and

will promote efficient acquisition, validation, delivery, and archival

of the measurements and data products. In order to complete these

systems the following steps need to be taken in conjunction with

international partners:

• GSN measures surface temperature, pressure, and precipitation

at about 1,000 sites within the World Weather Watch

(WWW) surface climate network.The network is not

providing useful data at many sites in underdeveloped countries

because of a lack of resources and training. Furthermore,

only one-third of the network has provided historical data for

examining climate extremes. CCSP will improve GSN data

reporting.

• GUAN collects upper atmosphere temperature, wind, and

humidity at 150 stations around the world. Performance at

about one-third of the stations is poor. CCSP will improve

in situ atmospheric column observations in GUAN. In addition,

CCSP will identify techniques and implementation strategies

for in situ atmospheric column observations of temperature,

wind, and water vapor over the ocean, where GUAN cannot be

used.

• CCSP will complete the U.S. Climate Reference Network of

250 stations nationwide to provide long-term homogeneous

observations of temperature and precipitation that can be coupled

to past long-term observations for the detection and attribution

of present and future climate change.

129

Sea Surface Temperature,

Sea Surface Height, and Surface

Vector Wind from Space

Tide Gauge Network

3¡x3¡ Argo Profiling Float Array

5¡x5¡ Surface Drifting Buoy Array

Moored Buoy

Ocean Reference Station

High-Resolution XBT and Flux Line

Frequently Repeated XBT Line

Carbon and Deep Ocean Survey

45% Complete

25% Complete

35% Complete

Existing Planned

Existing Planned

Existing Planned

Existing Planned

Global Survey Every 10 Years

Figure 12-4: In 2003, the international global ocean observing system for measurements of the physical climate system was 40% complete. Source:

Michael Johnson, NOAA Office of Global Programs.
Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• The United States will increase contributions to monitoring

upper-ocean temperature and salinity structure that will

improve understanding of the ocean’s response to a warming

planet. CCSP will support 50% of the international ocean

profiling float program (Argo) and additional expendable

bathythermographs from ships-of-opportunity to observe

changes in heat and freshwater content.

• CCSP will improve estimates of global sea surface temperature

for climate model initialization for better prediction capability,

as well as regional barometric pressure and surface current

velocity for improved model validation, by completing the global

distribution of 1,250 surface drifting buoys.

• CCSP will reduce uncertainty in sea-level rise estimates by

obtaining absolute positions for sea-level stations that are

required to improve the calibration of satellite altimeters, used

for the detection of long-term sea-level trends.

• The United States will continue to monitor the state of the

tropical atmosphere and oceans in the Pacific and Atlantic

Oceans with instrumented moored buoys and satellites,

and contribute to the development of a similar network in

the Indian Ocean for improved climate prediction and

research.

• CCSP will improve model-based global air-sea flux estimates

with surface flux reference moored buoy sites and Volunteer

Observing Ships (also collect routine surface meteorological

observations) with upgraded instruments for climate-quality

observations.

Objective 2.2: Retrieve important paleoclimate

records to provide a global long-term perspective on

historical changes in climate

There are three aspects of the paleoclimatic record that need to be

addressed by accelerated and focused programs within CCSP in

order to improve characterization of long-term climate change and

provide a valuable benchmark for testing models that are used to

project the future (see Goal 4):

• Increase priority for retrieving rapidly disappearing paleoclimate

information (e.g., melting glaciers, loss of corals and trees

whose growth patterns are used for dating purposes, etc.)

before these records are permanently lost

• Accelerate efforts to obtain interannual climate information in

the Southern Hemisphere and tropics to develop a global record

of millennium-scale climate variability 

• Improve the integration of paleoclimatic observations and

measurements with historical and modern climate data to form

continuous time series of climatic information.

Objective 2.3: Develop new capabilities

for ecosystem observations

Changes in an environmental variable—most often warming, but

also changes in precipitation and air quality—have often been related

to observed changes in biological and ecological systems. Several

examples were mentioned in the Working Group II contribution to

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment

Report (IPCC, 2001b), including thawing of permafrost, lengthening

of the period of active photosynthesis in mid- and high-latitude

ecosystems, poleward shifts of plant and animal species ranges,

movement of plant and animal species up elevation gradients, earlier

spring flowering of trees, earlier spring emergence of insects, earlier

egg-laying in birds, and shifts in a forest-woodland ecotone (the

boundary between the forest and the woodland).

These changes in ecosystems and organisms are consistent with

warming and changes in precipitation, but the possibility remains

that the observed biological and ecological changes were caused (in

part) by other factors such as biological invasions or human land

and marine resource management. Because of this, the attribution

of the causes of biological and ecological changes to climatic change

or variability is extremely difficult. Moreover, because many

ecosystem-environment interactions play out over long periods—

ultimately involving evolutionary changes and adaptations within

ecosystems—long periods of study are needed in many cases to

draw firm conclusions about relationships between environmental

change, effects of that change on biological and ecological systems,

and the significance of any observed biological or ecological changes

for the functioning of ecosystems (see Chapter 8).

New research is needed to provide a significantly more complete

picture of how biological and ecological systems may have responded

to recent climatic change and variability, including possible biological

or ecological responses to extreme events. New observational systems

will also be needed to appropriately monitor potential future changes

in the environment and accompanying biological or ecological

changes (if any). A key challenge will be to provide organization,

guidance, and synthesis for the emerging field of observed effects of

climate change on biological and ecological systems.

CCSP will initiate studies of early effects and indicator systems

across diverse ecosystems and geographic regions. A substantial

amount of existing climate and effects data, a variety of monitoring

efforts, and comparisons to scenario-based effects studies can be

marshaled in this effort. CCSP will facilitate linked analyses of

climatic trends and observed biological and ecological effects by

supporting identification of appropriate past and ongoing monitoring

efforts, design of needed new monitoring systems, and synthesis of

results across ecosystems and regions. Research efforts will target

those ecosystems that are subjected to the most rapid or extensive

environmental changes and/or are most sensitive to possible

environmental changes.

Long-term, spatially explicit, and quantitative observations of

ecosystem state variables and concomitant environmental variables

are needed. Initial activities and products will include:

• Define ecosystems sensitive to climate change and thresholds for

measurable impacts

• Identify ecosystems and the interfaces between ecosystems

(ecotones) that are either sensitive or resilient to environmental

change 

• Identify ecosystems experiencing the most rapid environmental

changes (e.g., ecosystems located at high latitudes and high

elevations or coastal ecosystems affected by ongoing sea-level

rise and intensive human influences) 

• Identify concurrent trends in other factors, such as population

and land-use change and provide links to data sets that document

these trends

• Identify links to biological and ecological data sets from

monitoring programs, including those from remote-sensing

platforms

130
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

• Validate impacts studies done with climate change scenarios

over the near term or for small amounts of warming using

observed climate and impact data

• Develop observational design criteria related to risk assessment

and identification of causes of changes in distribution of

pests and pathogens (e.g., climatic change interacting with

weather)

• Develop design criteria for remote and in situ observations of

biological and ecological systems that will help determine

whether any observed ecological changes are attributable to

global change 

• Produce global, synoptic observational data products from

satellite remote sensing documenting changes in biomass, albedo,

leaf area and duration, and terrestrial and marine ecosystem

composition for use in geographic information system (GIS)-

based decision support systems

• Produce climate data at appropriate temporal and spatial scales

for impacts studies.

Objective 2.4: Provide regular reports documenting

the present state of the climate system components

CCSP will initiate a regular reporting program on the state of the

climate system. Reports on various components of the system will

highlight analysis products from the observing system to address the

overarching question stated at the beginning of the chapter:

• Provide regular State of the Climate reports that include analyses

of trends and variability in climate throughout the historical

record using instrumental and paleoclimate records

• Evaluate the capabilities of existing and planned observing

networks for providing data that will support the analysis of

changes and trends in climate extremes and hazards 

• Calculate the number of Climate Reference Network observing

sites required to reduce the uncertainty in the observed climate

signal for surface temperature to less than 0.1°C per century

and precipitation to less than 1% per century on national and

regional scales (see Figure 12-5)

• Regular reports evaluating the reduction in time-dependent

biases in the space-based observing system obtained through

implementation of the GCOS satellite monitoring principles

and scientific data stewardship including the development of

complementary independent observation and analysis techniques

for critical climate variables

• For all operational monitoring networks, develop the tools

necessary to identify time-dependent biases in the data as close

to real-time as possible 

• For climate monitoring networks, develop an operational system

to identify non-climatic biases in the observing system for those

climate system variables identified by the NRC (1999g) report

on the adequacy of climate observing systems as relevant to

detection, attribution, and direct societal impacts 

• Identify and quantify the source of biases in climate system

variables in existing climate reference data sets.

Observations of the climate require careful scientific oversight

because climate signals are usually quite small relative to higher

frequency phenomena in the data. Consequently, the climate science

community has developed a set of principles that can be uniformly

applied to all relevant measurements. In addition, special rigor must

be applied to the algorithms, which are used to translate fundamental

physical measurements into useful geophysical products,so that

consistent results can be obtained and improved. Finally, scientific

oversight of the algorithm, instrument calibration, and data processing

131

a) USCRN Station (Fairbanks, Alaska)

b) Proposed Initial USCRN Locations (~296 stations)

c) Sensor Detection and Correction

0

0.5

1

Temperature (¡C)

08/19/01 08/27/01 09/05/01

Faulty Sensor

Detection and

Correction In the past, these

small biases

could take years

to detect, if ever

Difference in temperature between a nominal and faulty sensor

Difference in temperature of two nominal sensors

PR VI

Pair of Stations Single Station

Figure 12-5: The U.S. Climate Reference Network is being established to

reduce uncertainty and biases in long-term trends of key atmospheric

variables at 296 stations (a&b). The monitoring system is designed such

that multiple independent measurements are being made to capture sensor

drift or biases (c). Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center.

Goal 3: Provide stewardship of the observing system.
Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

and validation is critical to understanding the differences between

instrument error and climate signal, and reduction of the error bars

that define the uncertainty.This approach is captured in the four

objectives of this goal.

Objective 3.1: Follow climate monitoring principles

Efforts in the last decade to use current research and operational

data sets in global climate change research have provided a critical

set of lessons learned.These lessons have been gathered into two

sets of climate monitoring principles (see Appendix 12.4).These

principles and experience will be used to guide the major

improvements needed for the observing system. Instrument

calibration, characterization, and stability become paramount

considerations. Instruments must be tied to national and international

standards such as those provided by the National Institute of

Standards and Technology (NIST).When observations cannot

achieve sufficient absolute accuracy or changes in spatial or temporal

sampling occur, overlapping observations with high stability are

required to ensure accurate monitoring of global change. Agreedupon measurement protocols and procedures (e.g., continuous data

validation and intercomparisons) are required to produce climatequality data.

Objective 3.2: Provide independent

measurement and analysis

To be policy-relevant, climate data must have reliable confidence

intervals. Narrow intervals are most effective for decision support

and policy development. Experience from previous scientific

assessments, NIST, and other national standards laboratories have

shown that actual accuracy is only known after comparison of

independent measurements and analysis from multiple laboratories.

Most climate observing systems are pushing the edge of capability

in calibration.This suggests a final climate observing principle that

climate observations should strive to address: Each key climate

variable will be measured using independent observations and examined with

independent data analyses.

Observation independence verifies instrument accuracy, while

analysis independence verifies algorithms and computer code. For

sea surface temperatures, examples of independent observations

include satellite-derived measurements via infrared [Advanced Very

High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)] and passive microwave

[Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR)], and in situ

instruments on ships, buoys, and floats. But many climate variables

do not yet have independent sources.When surprises in climate

data sets occur relative to current theory, independent confirmation

is essential to ensure policy-relevant confidence in the results. A

recent key example of this need is the air temperature record from

radiosondes and the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) satellite data,

as well as the different results from two analyses of the MSU satellite

record. Using a single measurement of a key climate variable is a highrisk approach to reducing uncertainty for policymaking decisions.

Objective 3.3: Provide a sound foundation for

climate-quality data products that will maintain

integrity over time using well-characterized sensors

and validated algorithms

An instrument radiometric mathematical model, termed the

“measurement equation” by metrology experts, is developed to

define, describe, and represent the relationship between the sensor

output and desired physical observable (e.g., volts to temperature,

counts to radiance, etc.). Additional models are used to reference

the results in space and time (geo-location), and, finally, models are

used to derive desired physical parameters (ozone profile, chlorophyll

concentration, etc.).This process of characterization has been very

successful in the past, especially for satellite programs. Its practice

will continue to be encouraged, the results promulgated, and the

instrument designs critically evaluated so that future measurements

will produce the desired results.

It is important to understand that a sensor does not have to be

ideal, but it must be well-characterized so that systematic effects

can be evaluated and removed, even years after the mission, if new

effects are identified. If these data are not available, the utility of the

measurements is greatly compromised.The measurement equation

approach defines the problem and places the entire procedure on a

scientific basis. In the future all climate-quality observations need to

be linked to their climate data records through an approved algorithm

model that is described, for example, in an algorithm theoretical

basis document (ATBD).These documents were pioneered by

NASA in its implementation of the Earth Observing System (EOS)

and provide a valuable lesson learned for future measurements.

Objective 3.4: Scientific stewardship for

production of climate data records

Achieving climate accuracy with global and decadal sampling

represents a unique scientific and organizational challenge.

Calibration and stability requirements for climate data are often an

order of magnitude more stringent than weather data.This accuracy

is often achieved in research in situ and satellite data sets, with the

length of this accuracy being dependent on the lifetime of the

platforms and rate of instrument degradation; while in the longest

satellite case (Earth Radiation Budget Satellite) this may approach

2 decades, in other cases it is much shorter. Global decadal sampling

is often achieved in operational data sets, but without the accuracy

and stability. Scientific data stewardship addresses this challenge

through the production of Climate Data Records (CDRs).

Ultimately, the production of CDRs includes setting climate accuracy

and stability requirements, instrument calibration and characterization,

algorithm selection and development, end-to-end data validation

and error analysis, quality control, and data production. Long-term

archival and effective distribution are also essential and are

addressed in Chapter 13. Experience in the last decade has shown

that achieving CDR stewardship requires active and continual

collaboration with the science community including both data

producers and data users. Examples include Atmospheric Radiation

Measurement (ARM) and Aeronet surface observations, the global

surface temperature record,Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean buoys, and

many forms of satellite observations for ocean, land, and atmosphere

climate variables. Climate Data Science Teams (CDSTs) will be

discussed in Goal 6 as a critical implementation strategy for the

climate observing system.

Long-term CDRs will come about through the harmonious integration

of highly accurate, research-quality observing systems with longer

term operational and paleoclimate data.To reach the desired level

of climate quality will also require additional efforts for current

132
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

changes accurately? The answers are a function of both climate

models and the climate observing system design.

The definition of climate model evaluation metrics will affect

observing system design. As models and data improve in quality,

these metrics will evolve in an iterative fashion over the next decade.

Objective 4.2: Use observations to initialize

climate variability models

Climate model initialization is primarily effective only for seasonalto-interannual time scales, and for initialization of the state of the

world’s oceans, soil moisture, and vegetation.These latter conditions

reflect climate processes with sufficiently long time scales that their

initial state can affect seasonal-to-interannual climate states.The

prime initialization example is prediction of El Niño events using

initial ocean conditions.To improve short-term climate forecasts, it

will require new and improved technologies in data assimilation

and better utilization of in situ and remotely sensed global ocean,

atmosphere, and terrestrial observations of key physical variables,

such as ongoing observations of temperature and new measurements

of salinity and soil moisture (see Chapter 10, Objective 1.4).

Objective 4.3: Utilize climate system models to

assist in the design of observation systems

While climate models are not perfect, for some variables they can

strongly support the estimation of accuracy requirements for

CDRs. Consider the following simple paradigm of climate change:

forcing => feedback => response => climate change. If

the Earth were such a simple linear system, then designing observing

systems and testing climate model predictions would be a relatively

straightforward process. But the climate system is highly coupled and

fundamentally nonlinear. Consequently, intrinsic internal variability

is an inherent part of the real climate system. Climate change must

be detected and understood. However, this signal is usually smaller

than the background climate variability (e.g., year-to-year climate

variability). CDRs will require accuracies at a temporal and spatial

scale greatly below the level of natural variability.

Unfortunately, most quantitative observations of the climate system

only exist for the last century and are a combination of background

and climate variability, climate change, and observation error. Using

the total variability of the system to define measurement requirements

represents only an upper limit on required accuracy and is not likely

to be sufficient. Climate model simulations, on the other hand, do not

include the full complexity of the Earth’s climate system.The models

typically represent an underestimate of background variability. As a

result, climate model ensemble simulations can be used to estimate

the required accuracy for the observation system.The ensembles

can also specify intrinsic variability of the system as a function of

temporal and spatial scale.These simulations can use varying climate

forcing and can separate background variability from the climate

signal by running large numbers of simulations with slightly varying

initial conditions, but the same boundary conditions.

Objective 4.4: Develop protocols for validating data

assimilation and reanalysis products from the

observing system

Increasingly, global and regional data sets derived from data assimilation

models and retrospective reanalysis models are being used for climate

133

operational systems.We anticipate that CDSTs will be required to

produce climate-quality data and represent the organizational link

that provides operational level continuity with research-quality science

direction.

The stewardship of scientific data is required to produce the climatequality data sets that are a critical resource for policymakers and a

legacy for future generations. As the length of CDRs increase, the

power of the data to narrow uncertainties will increase and provide

a basis for future decisions.

There are two primary roles for observations in the improvement of

climate models: evaluation and initialization.At the same time, climate

system models provide important insights for the improvement and

interpretation of measurements through the use of simulations.

These two-way interactions of observations and models affect not

only the design but also the improvement of the observing system.

Objective 4.1: Develop protocols to evaluate models

with climate-quality observations

Model testing uses observations to determine the uncertainties in

current climate models and to prioritize needed improvements in

future models.This is the most critical function of climate data

records and depends primarily on two factors: (1) accuracy and

stability of the climate data; and (2) the intrinsic background

variability or noise in the Earth’s climate system. Both factors vary

with temporal and spatial scale. Climate system noise is typically

largest at short time scales and small spatial scales (e.g., seasonal/

regional scales), and smallest at long time scales and large spatial

scales (e.g., century/global scales). Useful climate model tests

require that both the data accuracy and the climate system noise be

carefully assessed. As a result, climate accuracy requirements cannot

be specified as a single number per variable, but must also be defined

at several relevant temporal and spatial scales. Examples of relevant

temporal/spatial scales include monthly/local, seasonal/regional,

annual/zonal, and decadal/global. Some climate data records will

have sufficient accuracy or stability to resolve regional climate

change but inadequate coverage to resolve global changes and vice versa.

Consequently, observations and models of the climate system

cannot make progress without continuous interaction between and

understanding of the uncertainties in each research area (see also

Chapter 10, Objective 1.3). Rapid progress requires regular interaction

between the modeling and observation communities through

CDSTs. One of the most critical collaborations between climate

model and measurement scientists in the future will be the definition

of prediction accuracy metrics capable of constraining key model

uncertainties, such as cloud and water vapor feedback. Currently,

such metrics are rather ad hoc because of the difficulty in unraveling

the complex nonlinear climate system and in documenting climate

data accuracy as a function of time and space. In the simplest sense,

how would you recognize a perfect climate model if you had one?

What tests would it pass? How will we know when the observing

network is sufficient to characterize, attribute, and predict climate

Goal 4: Integrate modeling activities with the

observing system.
Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

research, monitoring (time series), diagnostics, applications, and

impact assessments (see Objective 1.8 and also Chapter 10,

Objective 1.5). Evaluation protocols must be developed to assess

the accuracy and stability of these reanalysis products for climate

applications. Acceptable error standards need to be established that

will provide guidance on whether the data sets are usable or not,

especially at regional scales and for model-derived/computed

parameters.

The range of global observations needed to understand and monitor

climate processes, and to assess human impacts, exceeds the capability

of any one country. Cooperation is therefore necessary to address

priorities without duplication or omission (see Chapter 15).

Satellite missions and in situ networks require many years of planning.

Observations of the state of and trends in planetary processes cut

across land, water, air, and oceans. National programs need to fit

into larger international frameworks. At the international level,

participation in both science and operational oversight committees

must be continued, and strengthened or developed in disciplines

that have not yet developed a global system.

In 1998, Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC) noted with concern the mounting

evidence of a decline in the global observing capability and urged

Parties to undertake programs of systematic observations and to

strengthen their capability in the collection, exchange, and utilization

of environmental data and information.The United States supports

the need to improve global observing systems for climate, and will

join other Parties in submitting information on national plans and

programs that contribute to the global observing capability.

Objective 5.1: Foster and support international

partnerships in observations

The United States is an active and leading partner in the development

and support of a global observing system that assembles key elements

from a number of observing networks under the aegis of appropriate

international organizations.With regard to climate, GCOS has fostered

the integration of key elements including meteorological observations

from the WWW Global Observing System, atmospheric constituents

from the Global Atmosphere Watch, hydrological observations from

the World Hydrological Observing System, critical oceanographic

climate variables from the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS),

and several terrestrial variables from the Global Terrestrial Observing

System (GTOS). Coordination of global satellite observations is

carried out through the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites

(CEOS).This is particularly important as multi-national, multispacecraft constellations and increased use of higher altitude orbits

(e.g., geostationary) are used to improve the temporal resolution of

global observations that may further enhance decision support.

Given the importance of validating satellite observations under a

broad range of geophysical and biogeochemical conditions,

participation of international partners—in providing coincident and

correlative information that can be used to test and improve satellite

observations—is especially important. International partners are

also important in the implementation of field campaigns that are

best carried out with the full scientific involvement and logistical

support of the host countries.

The full implementation of a global system for climate will require

enhanced international coordination and commitment. Components

for atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, and satellite observations

are supported at varying levels depending on scientific priorities,

availability of national contributions, and the sophistication of the

relevant observing technologies. A specific focus on climate variables

is essential to provide an adequate database to meet climate needs.

Recently, these observing systems, their sponsors, and the satellite

community have developed the International Global Observing

Strategy (IGOS). IGOS is a strategic planning process, uniting the

major satellite and surface-based systems for global environmental

observations of the atmosphere, oceans, and land in a framework

for decisions and resource allocations by individual partners.The

IGOS Partnership (IGOS-P) focuses specifically on the observing

dimension in the process of providing environmental information for

decisionmaking.This includes all forms of data collection concerning

the physical, chemical, and biological environments of our planet, as

well as data on the human environment, pressures on the natural

environment, and environmental impacts on human well-being.

IGOS-P is currently focusing on identifying and gaining commitments

for essential requirements for observing oceanic processes, global

carbon, atmospheric chemistry, the global water cycle, geo-hazards,

and coral reefs as part of a future coastal initiative.

Bilateral agreements provide another strategy for achieving

partnerships in observations and monitoring. Additionally, activities

such as the U.S.-led Earth Observations Summit, the Subsidiary

Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) meetings, and

UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties provide opportunities to build

international consensus—both scientific and political—for the

implementation of a more integrated global climate observing system.

Objective 5.2: Provide support for key

observations in developing countries

Developing countries provide key opportunities and challenges for

observing systems.While many developing countries have the

potential to make routine weather observations, and do so on a regular

basis, many do not have the capability to collect and disseminate

reliable observations of other variables that are critical for climate

characterization and understanding. Further, many developing countries

do not have adequate human resources to take full advantage of climate

projections that would yield many benefits to their citizens.

It has been established that many developing countries lack either

the capital or human resources to support high-quality observations

or to sustain data and information systems. Countries often lack

adequate capital for investment in equipment and supplies, trained

technical staff, or maintenance capability.

The U.S. research community can point to numerous examples where

it has contributed to measurements of key variables in developing

countries. Many of these have provided valuable long-term data.

The networks to measure atmospheric constituents through flask

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Goal 5: Foster international cooperation to develop

a complete global observing system.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

sampling and through vertical soundings have contributed a global

database of important information on greenhouse gases.The

oceanographic community has successfully engaged many coastal

nations to participate in one or more of its observing systems (e.g.,

sea level, drifting floats and buoys, volunteer ships, etc.). International

programs addressing terrestrial processes have demonstrated similar

successes in observing ecosystems, obtaining hydrologic information,

and initiating cryospheric measurement.

CCSP has specifically noted the key role that the United States

can play in improving observational networks. In the President’s

June 2001 Rose Garden speech, he stated that “We’ll also provide

resources to build climate observation systems in developing

countries and encourage other developed nations to match our

American commitment.”

The United States can contribute further by:

• Evaluating existing networks’ capability to meet established

climate requirements

• Improving existing networks through direct contributions to

international programs [e.g., the World Meteorological

Organization’s (WMO) Voluntary Cooperation Programme]

• Forming partnerships with other developed countries to make

directed investments to meet developing country inadequacies

• Providing direct assistance through U.S. programs of aid to

specific developing country activities, such as the U.S. Agency

for International Development (USAID)

• Continuing and expanding the collaborative international scientific

programs that address critical climate variables.

Objective 5.3: International coordination through

membership in key international groups

It is essential for the United States to maintain a leadership role in

those international programs, both research and operational, that

support climate observations of importance to U.S. programs.The

principal international research programs (e.g., the World Climate

Research Programme, the International Geosphere-Biosphere

Programme, and the International Human Dimensions Programme)

invite members from the U.S. scientific community and often from

federal agencies to serve on relevant steering committees and working

groups.These committees and working groups provide a forum for

planning future research campaigns and for developing observational

components that often lead to continuing measurement strategies.

Individuals participating in these groups provide key links between

U.S. and international research programs.

With regard to observations, U.S. scientists serve on the steering

committees and working groups of the global observing systems

and provide continuing advice to them.The principal programs for

atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial observations of climate include

GCOS, GOOS, and GTOS, as well as their working groups.

U.S. scientists also serve on more operationally oriented international

committees that support ongoing observational activities. Examples

include the Commissions of the WMO (e.g., Basic Systems,

Climatology, Hydrology, etc.) and the Joint Commission for

Oceanography and Marine Meteorology sponsored by WMO and

the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Individuals

named to such groups serve as national representatives.These

groups establish observing requirements, develop protocols for data

and information exchange, and obtain international commitments.

CCSP encourages U.S. scientists to continue their important roles

in support of these diverse international programs.

The development of a national observing and monitoring system

will require a coordinated management plan, which involves all

federal agencies that conduct research and operational observations

of the climate system.The management approach described in this

goal follows the general guidelines outlined in Chapter 16.

However, based upon the “best practices” learned over the history of

USGCRP, a more detailed management structure is described for

the observation system within this goal. Experience has shown that

scientific oversight is key for the maintenance of climate-quality

data from observing systems; consequently, the management plan

will engage the science and user communities in key oversight and

evaluation capacities. Finally, the observing system will be global and

carried out with the nations of the world; therefore, cooperation at

the international level for both operational and scientific oversight

will need further development (see Goal 5).

At present, some of these management elements are in place, but a

well-coordinated national management plan for observing the climate

system is not, and will be addressed in the coming decade. At the

federal level, coordination at the program level will be strengthened

to address implementation, and oversight by agency principals will

be established. Scientific oversight will occur through a layered

pyramid of working groups starting at the most basic level of

instrument teams and building up to an observing system science

advisory council.This structure has been demonstrated to be an

effective strategy over the lifetime of USGCRP and this goal expands

the “best practices” learned to the observing system as a whole.

Objective 6.1: Provide coordinated management

groups for the observing system elements

The management of the observing system elements will vary

depending on size and complexity. Space systems, both operational

and research, require focused project management groups that

are dedicated to monitoring health and safety, providing command

and control, receipt and quality control of downlinked data, fault

recovery, and ground tracking, if necessary.

In situ systems can vary from control and maintenance of a single

convenient site on land to maintenance of a large international

network at sea.While the former can rely on a simple management

program, the latter requires a much larger national management

group and international coordination. CCSP will coordinate

management groups of similar measurement techniques and logistics;

coordinate with international management where applicable; work

with international implementation coordination groups, such as the

Joint Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meterology; and

finally provide overall management and guidance for the national

system as a whole through an interagency working group.The

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Goal 6: Manage the observing system with an effective

interagency structure.
Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

selection and oversight of management groups will depend on

whether they are research or operational, and federal, commercial,

or university.

Objective 6.2: Provide Climate Data Science Teams

for climate data stewardship

The foundation of the management strategy is to obtain key CDRs

through the use of CDSTs. Definition of the CDSTs is based on the

last 2 decades of experience and lessons gained from previous Earth

observation systems focused on climate measurements. A clear

message from this experience is the need for CDSTs.These teams

are composed of a group of scientists and engineers whose purpose

is to convert raw instrument data into CDRs, including calibration,

algorithm development, validation, error analysis, quality control,

and data product design. If the data volume is small, the CDST

may also produce and distribute the data products. If the data

volume is large, the CDST may interface to a separate data center

for production, archiving, and distribution.

Examples of effective CDSTs include the production of climate

versions of the surface air temperature records; most NASA EOS

satellite data products, as well as those of precursor activities such

as the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer, Stratospheric Aerosol

and Gas Experiment, and Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance

Monitor; the international Argo ocean profiling float program; the

NOAA-led Baseline Surface Radiation Network; and DOE’s ARM

Program.The reason that CDSTs are required for most, if not all,

climate data records is the extreme accuracy needed for rigorous

climate records (see Objective 3.1). Because the methods of

measurement vary so greatly, effective CDSTs focus on just a

few of the climate data records, and some only on a single

CDR. A minimal list of variables needed as CDRs is given in

Appendix 12.1.

Most CDSTs are chosen by scientific peer review.They consist of a

principal investigator and a set of co-investigators.The co-investigators

lead key instrument, algorithm, sampling, validation, and data

management functions. CDSTs include members of the climate

modeling or climate analysis community (i.e., data users).This is

key to keeping the CDST focused on the most effective approach to

meeting users’ needs. Most CDSTs are currently funded by a single

U.S. agency. CDSTs have their work and products peer-reviewed.

CDSTs are often used in national and international assessments of

the state of climate science and climate impacts.They document the

136

Decision Resources

Climate Modeling

Climate Data

Science Boards

(e.g., radiative energy)

Climate Data

Science Teams

(e.g., satellite)

Climate Data

Science Councils

(e.g., climate variability)

Cabinet-Level

Management Structure

CCSP Observing System

Management Executive Council

International

Coordinating Committees

Observing System

Operations Executive Council

Observing System

Science Executive Council

Climate

Observing

System

NonClimate

Observing

System

Data Product

(e.g., TOA fluxes)

Data

Management

System

Climate Science

Advisory Councils

(e.g., U.S. CLIVAR) Implementation

Users

Evaluation

Feedback

Objectives

Requirements

Feedback

Figure 12-6:

Schematic of

the overall

management

structure for the

observing system.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

climate data products and their quality through web documents,

conference papers, and journal papers.

Objective 6.3: Develop science and management

advisory boards and councils to prioritize across

climate system components and to guide

system evolution

Observing system science direction will be provided by boards and

councils. It is too long a step between a single CDST focusing on

one or two climate variables and CCSP. A logical structure will be

needed between these two extremes.The structure chosen must be

able to handle the following set of changes and prioritizations:

• Evolving scientific understanding and changes in accuracy

requirements

• Changing financial/human resources and delivery schedules

• Evolving technology for developing and implementing improvements

• Changing instrument, surface site, and spacecraft operations

• Changing data management interfaces and technology (e.g.,

production, distribution, and archival)

• User-driven changes in data product format requirements.

Addressing these trade-offs between resources, requirements, and

climate variables will require a hierarchical science management

committee structure.While there are many ways to provide such a

structure, climate data and climate modelers will be best served by

a structure that gives highest priority to tight integration of major

climate system components (see Figure 12-6). Portions of such a

system have evolved over the last decade, primarily at the international

level as discussed under Goal 5. It is most fully evolved and effective

for ocean observations, while the process for terrestrial observations

is at a much earlier stage of development. More of this structure

will be developed by CCSP for the United States.

The CCSP cabinet-level management structure is at the top level,

responsible for resource commitments to the climate observing

system.

The second level consists of a sub-group of CCSP—the Observing

System Management Executive Council (OSMEC), composed of

agency executives capable of committing agency funding.This group

will provide a formal interface with international coordination

groups, such as CEOS and IGOS-P.

Two groups comprise the third level.The first is an interagency

program management group responsible for providing resources to

implement the observations and to support science investigations—

the Observing System Operations Executive Council (OSOEC).

The second is the highest level science advisory group—the U.S.

Observing System Science Executive Council (OSSEC).This science

council makes recommendations to both OSMEC and OSOEC by

prioritizing across the entire climate observing system. In addition,

OSSEC will develop the objectives and requirements for the

observing system, based on input from the Climate Science

Advisory Councils of the research elements and decision support

groups, and will evaluate the ability of the observing system to

meet these objectives.These Climate Science Advisory Councils will

also provide OSSEC with evaluation reports on the performance of

the system in meeting the needs of its users.

At the fourth level, Climate Data Science Councils are responsible

for climate observations to support each of the seven major

CCSP research elements: Atmospheric Composition, Climate

Variability and Change,Water Cycle, Land-Use/Land-Cover

Change, Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems, and Human Contributions

and Responses, as well as Decision Support activities.The Climate

Data Science Councils could be a sub-group of the Climate

Science Advisory Councils shown in Figure 12-6. Some of the

Climate Science Advisory Councils already exist, such as the U.S.

Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) team for the

Climate Variability and Change theme.The Climate Data Science

Councils address the complete range of climate variables within

their theme.

A minimum set of climate variables is given in Appendix 12.1.

Some variables will be relevant to several of the Climate Data

Science Councils. Such overlaps are inevitable in any management

structure given the tight coupling of processes in the climate system.

It is the responsibility of OSSEC to assign primary responsibility for

each variable to one of the Climate Data Science Councils.The

Climate Data Science Councils are responsible for setting CDR

requirements for absolute accuracy, stability, and space/time

sampling.

At the fifth level, Climate Data Science Boards will address data

parameters grouped into the most natural subsets for climate

processes and/or for the type of instrumentation. For example, one

of the Climate Variability and Change science boards would cover

radiative energy from the top of atmosphere to the surface of the

Earth. Some of these groups have already been formed by individual

agencies (e.g., sea surface topography, ocean winds, sea surface

temperature, and ocean color within NASA).Within each Science

Board there are in situ, satellite, and field experiment observations.

The advantage of this approach is that the linkages of surface,

satellite, and in situ data types for key climate parameters are

actively considered in any observing system trade-offs and will be

valuable to the implementation decisions of OSOEC. Each CDST

will report to the relevant Climate Data Science Board.

The Climate Data Science Boards and Executive Councils will meet

as required to assess progress in the data system, nominally once

per year.These meetings are expected to be indepth workshops

sufficient to deal with the complex trade-offs and linkages between

the observing system components. Every 5 years, a major assessment

of the entire climate observing system would be produced,

reviewed by the National Research Council, and coordinated with

international assessments (e.g., the International Conference on

Ocean Observing Systems for Climate, GCOS Adequacy Reports,

IPCC assessments).

These boards and councils must include members of the climate

data user community (e.g., climate modelers, climate analysts), as

well as CDST representatives and data management representatives.

In addition, members of the community who participate in

international science or operations groups will be ex officio members

of their appropriate counterpart board or council.The most efficient

organization will be to maximize the extent that the data management

and climate modeling management structures parallel that of climate

observing and monitoring.

137
Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

138

Objective 6.4: Provide a management structure

that allows clear interagency responsibility,

prioritization, peer review, and evolution

of the observing system

Observations and monitoring of the climate system are carried out

by a number of federal agencies. Success will require a series of

steps to be initiated jointly by OSMEC, OSOEC, and OSSEC.These

steps include:

• Assign agency responsibility for measurement contributions to

each variable and measurement type.These contributions would

typically be defined in terms of measurement system (satellite,

in situ, field experiment) and sampling (e.g., satellite orbits,

number/location of ground sites). OSSEC will be necessary in

this step in order to ensure that the climate monitoring

principles (see Appendix 12.4) are adhered to in assigning these

responsibilities and evaluating the ability of the observations to

meet the science objectives and requirements. If more than one

agency is involved in measuring a single parameter, OSSEC must

clearly define the responsibilities of each. Given the need for

independent observations, it is recommended that the United

States and the international community each provide at least one

measurement of each variable.This would ensure the absolute

minimum of two observations for each key climate variable.

• Assess the state of the climate observing system, including current

agency plans.This assessment must include climate observing

system requirements for each component as well as current and

planned capabilities.

• Once shortcomings are identified, the Executive Councils

(Science, Operations, and Management) and international groups

must coordinate a plan for eliminating these shortcomings over

time.

• Select the CDSTs for each climate variable, preferably through

peer review.Typically, for any given variable, there will be separate

CDSTs for surface and satellite observations.This is dictated by

the large differences in instrumentation, calibration, operations,

and sampling for these systems.

Lead Authors

Chester Koblinsky, NASA and CCSPO

Thomas Spence, NSF

Waleed Abdalati, NASA

Michael Dettinger, USGS

Howard Diamond, NOAA

Michael Johnson, NOAA

Thomas Karl, NOAA

James Mcguire, NASA

Lawrence Pettinger, USGS

Sushel Unninayer, NASA

Bruce Wielicki, NASA

Contributors

Jeff Amthor, DOE

James Andrews, ONR

James Butler, NOAA

Margarita Conkright, NOAA and CCSPO

Wanda Ferrell, DOE

Gerald Fraser, NIST

David Goodrich, NOAA

Carol Johnson, NIST

Jack Kaye, NASA

William Kirby, USGS

Laura Miner-Nordstrom, USEPA

Steve Piotrowicz, NOAA

Cynthia Rosenwieg, NASA

David Shultz, USGS

Brent Smith, NOAA

Sidney Thurston, NOAA

CHAPTER 12 AUTHORS
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

139

EARTH CLIMATE SYSTEM OBSERVATIONS

This table provides a summary of “State” and “Forcing/Feedback” variables for the major components of the Earth system for which observations are

required. In parentheses, “I” and “S” denote measurements made by in situ and space-based instruments, respectively. See Annex C for source information.

STATE VARIABLES EXTERNAL FORCING OR FEEDBACK VARIABLES

(1) Atmosphere

• wind (I/S)

• upper air temperature (I/S)

• surface air temperature (I/S)

• sea-level pressure (I)

• upper air water vapor (I/S)

• surface air humidity/water vapor (I/S)

• precipitation (I/S)

• clouds (I/S)

• liquid water content (I/S)

• sea surface temperature (I/S)

• land surface soil moisture/temperature (I/S)

• land surface structure and topography (I/S)

• land surface vegetation (I/S)

• CO2 and other greenhouse gases, ozone and chemistry, aerosols (I/S)

• evaporation and evapotranspiration (I/S)

• snow/ice cover (I/S)

• shortwave and longwave surface radiation budget (I/S)

• solar irradiance and shortwave/longwave radiation budget (S)

(2) Ocean

• upper ocean currents (I/S)

• sea surface temperature (I/S)

• sea-level/surface topography (I/S)

• sea surface salinity (I/S)

• sea ice (I/S)

• wave characteristics (I/S)

• mid- and deep-ocean currents (I)

• subsurface thermal structure (I)

• subsurface salinity structure (I)

• ocean biomass/phytoplankton (I/S)

• subsurface carbon (I), nutrients (I)

• subsurface chemical tracers (I)

• ocean surface wind and wind stress (I/S) 

• incoming surface shortwave radiation (I/S)

• downwelling longwave radiation (I/S)

• surface air temperature/humidity (I/S)

• precipitation (freshwater/salinity flux) (I/S)

• evaporation (I/S)

• freshwater flux from rivers and ice melt (I/S)

• CO2 flux across the air-sea interface (I)

• geothermal heat flux—ocean bottom (I)

• organic and inorganic effluents (into ocean) (I/S)

• biomass and standing stock (I/S)

• biodiversity (I)

• human impacts—fishing (I)

• coastal zones/margins (I/S)

(3) Terrestrial

• topography/elevation (I/S)

• land cover (I/S)

• leaf area index (I)

• soil moisture/wetness (I/S)

• soil structure/type (I/S)

• permafrost (I)

• vegetation/biomass vigor (I/S)

• water runoff (I/S)

• surface ground temperature (I/S)

• snow/ice cover (I/S)

• subsurface temperature and moisture (I/S)

• soil carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, nutrients (I)

• necromass (plant litter) (I)

• subsurface biome/vigor (I)

• land use (I/S)

• groundwater and subterranean flow (I)

• lakes and reservoirs (I/S)

• rivers and river flow (I/S)

• glaciers and ice sheets (I/S)

• water turbidity, nitrogen, phosphorus, dissolved oxygen (I/S)

• incoming shortwave radiation (I/S)

• net downwelling longwave radiation (I/S)

• fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (I/S)

• surface winds (I)

• surface air temperature and humidity (I/S)

• albedo (I/S)

• evaporation and evapotranspiration (I/S)

• precipitation (I/S)

• land use and land-use practices (I/S)

• deforestation (I/S)

• human impacts—land degradation (I/S)

• erosion, sediment transport (I/S)

• fire occurrence (I/S)

• volcanic effects (on surface) (I/S)

• biodiversity (I/S)

• chemical (fertilizer/pesticide and gas exchange) (I)

• waste disposal and other contaminants (I)

• earthquakes, tectonic motions (I/S)

• nutrients and soil microbial activity (I)

• coastal zones/margins (I/S)

APPENDIX 12.1
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140

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH MILESTONES

FOR OBSERVATIONS AND MONITORING

This table provides examples of observing priorities highlighted in the research element chapters (Chapters 3-9) of this plan.

Atmospheric Composition

• Continue baseline observations of atmospheric composition over North America and globally. 

• Improve description of the global distributions of aerosols and their properties.

• Develop and improve inventories of global emissions of methane, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from anthropogenic and

natural sources.

• Monitor global distributions of tropospheric ozone and some of its precursors (e.g., NOx). 

• Continue monitoring trends in ultraviolet radiation. 

Climate Variability and Change

• Improve effectiveness of observing systems, including deployment of new systems and re-deployment of existing systems, as well as the collection of

targeted paleoclimatic data. 

• Improve estimates of global air-sea-land fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum.

• Regularly update and extend global climate reanalyses. 

• Conduct process studies for needed observations of critical ocean mixing processes. 

• Develop a paleoclimatic database to evaluate climate models. 

Water Cycle

• Develop an integrated global observing strategy for water cycle variables.

• Characterize water vapor in the climate-critical area of the tropical tropopause.

• Monitor drought based on improved measurements of precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff. 

• Test parameterizations for clouds and precipitation processes. 

• Initialize and test boundary layers and other components in models. 

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

• Continue to acquire global calibrated coarse-, moderate-, and high-resolution remotely sensed data.

• Provide global maps of areas of rapid land-use and land-cover change, and location and extent of fires.

• Quantify rates of regional, national, and global land-use and land-cover change.

• Develop global high-resolution satellite land-cover databases.

• Provide operational global monitoring of land use and land-cover conditions. 

Carbon Cycle

• Provide U.S. contributions to an international carbon observing system, including measurements of carbon storage, fluxes, and complementary

environmental data. 

• Assessment of the quality of measurements that support global carbon cycle science.

• Measure atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations and related tracers in under-sampled locations.

• Observe global air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide, lateral ocean carbon transport, and delivery of carbon from the land to the ocean. 

• Develop database of agricultural management effects on carbon emissions and sequestration in the United States.

Ecosystems

• Define requirements for ecosystem observations to quantify feedbacks to climate and atmospheric composition, to enhance existing observation

systems, and to guide development of new capabilities.

• Quantify biomass, species composition, and community structure of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in relation to disturbance patterns.

• Maintain and enhance satellite terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic observing systems and networks, to monitor trends in ecosystem variables to

parameterize models and verify model projections. 

• Continue and enhance long-term observations to track changes in seasonal cycles of productivity, species distributions and abundance, and ecosystem

structure. 

• Provide data quantifying aboveground and belowground effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentration in combination with elevated ozone

concentration on the structure and functioning of agricultural, forest, and aquatic ecosystems.

Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change

• Gridded world population database, including time series as far as possible into the past.

• Human footprint data set that depicts the geographic extent of human impacts on the environment.

• Produce elevation maps depicting areas vulnerable to sea-level rise and planning maps depicting how state and local governments plan to respond to

sea-level rise.

APPENDIX 12.2
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141

CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH INITIATIVE (CCRI)

ACTIVITIES IN OBSERVATIONS AND MONITORING

CCRI Milestones

Ocean Observations

CCRI funds will be used to work toward the establishment of an ocean observing system that can accurately document climate-scale changes in ocean

heat content, carbon uptake, and sea-level changes. Global tropical measurements will be augmented to improve seasonal forecasts. Ocean reference

stations will be added to improve routine analyses of ocean-atmosphere fluxes at these stations to improve energy balance studies and coupled modeling

parameterizations. In addition, key locations will be instrumented to improve understanding of abrupt climate change detection. The requirements for ocean

observations for climate have been well documented, the relevant technology is available, and the international community is mobilized through GCOS and

GOOS to implement key elements of the system. 

Atmosphere Observations

CCRI funds will be used to work with other developed countries to reestablish the benchmark upper air network, emphasizing data-sparse regions; to

upgrade the GCOS surface network for baseline variables; to deploy mobile Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program facilities; to begin planning for

an early copy of an NPOESS aerosol instrument; and to place new Global Atmospheric Watch stations in priority sites to measure pollutant emissions,

aerosols, and ozone, in specific regions.

Aerosol Observations

Aerosols and tropospheric ozone play unique, but poorly quantified, roles in the atmospheric radiation budget. CCRI investments will be used to begin

implementation of plans developed by the interagency National Aerosol-Climate Interactions Program to define and evaluate the role of aerosols that

absorb solar radiation, such as black carbon and mineral dust. Proposed activities include field campaigns, in situ monitoring stations to measure black

carbon and aerosol precursors, global climatologies of tropospheric aerosols, and satellite algorithm development.

Carbon Cycle Observations

Research objectives for carbon cycle science include improved observations to address some of the field’s greatest areas of uncertainty. CCRI funds will

be targeted for the integrated North American Carbon Program (NACP), a priority of the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan. NACP calls for implementing a

North American Carbon Cycle Observing System consisting of a network of small aircraft stations and tall towers to obtain profiles of carbon gases for

determining sources and sinks of carbon dioxide in the United States, expansion of the AmeriFlux sites, the development of automated carbon dioxide and

methane sensors, improvements in ground-based measurements, and inventories of forest and agricultural lands. In addition, funds are provided for

improved estimates of carbon dioxide over and into the ocean derived from ship-based instruments.

In addition, CCRI will select and award development assistance projects for climate monitoring in developing nations.

APPENDIX 12.3
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142

1. The impact of new systems or changes to existing systems should be assessed prior to implementation.

2. A suitable period of overlap for new and old observing systems is required.

3. The details and history of local conditions, instruments, operating procedures, data processing algorithms, and other factors pertinent to

interpreting data (i.e., metadata) should be documented and treated with the same care as the data themselves.

4. The quality and homogeneity of data should be regularly assessed as a part of routine operations.

5. Consideration of the needs for environmental and climate-monitoring products and assessments, such as IPCC assessments, should be

integrated into national, regional, and global observing priorities.

6. Operation of historically uninterrupted stations and observing systems should be maintained.

7. High priority for additional observations should be focused on data-poor regions, poorly observed parameters, regions sensitive to change,

and key measurements with inadequate temporal resolution.

8. Long-term requirements, including appropriate sampling frequencies, should be specified to network designers, operators, and instrument

engineers at the outset of system design and implementation.

9. The conversion of research observing systems to long-term operations in a carefully planned manner should be promoted.

10. Data management systems that facilitate access, use, and interpretation of data and products should be included as essential elements of

climate monitoring systems.

Furthermore, satellite systems for monitoring climate need to: 

a. Take steps to make radiance calibration, calibration monitoring, and satellite-to-satellite cross-calibration of the full operational constellation a

part of the operational satellite system.

b. Take steps to sample the Earth system in such a way that climate-relevant (diurnal, seasonal, and long-term interannual) changes can be

resolved.

Thus, satellite systems for climate monitoring should adhere to the following specific principles:

11. Constant sampling within the diurnal cycle (minimizing the effects of orbital decay and orbit drift) should be maintained.

12. A suitable period of overlap for new and old satellite systems should be ensured for a period adequate to determine inter-satellite biases and

maintain the homogeneity and consistency of time-series observations. 

13. Continuity of satellite measurements (i.e., elimination of gaps in the long-term record) through appropriate launch and orbital strategies should

be ensured. 

14. Rigorous pre-launch instrument characterization and calibration, including radiance confirmation against an international radiance scale

provided by a national metrology institute, should be ensured.

15. On-board calibration adequate for climate system observations should be ensured and associated instrument characteristics monitored.

16. Operational production of priority climate products should be sustained and peer-reviewed new products should be introduced as appropriate.

17. Data systems needed to facilitate user access to climate products, metadata, and raw data, including key data for delayed-mode analysis,

should be established and maintained.

18. Use of functioning baseline instruments that meet the calibration and stability requirements stated above should be maintained for as long as

possible, even when these exist on de-commissioned satellites.

19. Complementary in situ baseline observations for satellite measurements should be maintained through appropriate activities and cooperation.

20. Random errors and time-dependent biases in satellite observations and derived products should be identified.

GCOS CLIMATE MONITORING PRINCIPLES4

APPENDIX 12.4

Effective monitoring systems for climate should adhere to the following principles:

4The ten basic principles were adopted (in paraphrased form) by the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change

through Decision 5/CP.5 of COP-5 at Bonn in November 1999.
CHAPTER CONTENTS

For each goal, this chapter introduces the objectives

for data management to be addressed in the

coming decade based upon current knowledge and

infrastructure.

Goal 1: Collect and manage data in multiple

locations.

Goal 2: Enable users to discover and access data

and information via the Internet.

Goal 3: Develop integrated information data

products for scientists and decisionmakers.

Goal 4: Preserve data.

Management Structure

National and International Partnerships

One of the goals of the U.S. Climate Change Research

Initiative (CCRI) is to enhance and integrate observation,

monitoring, and data management systems to support

climate process and trend analyses.This chapter lays the

strategy for managing integrated data and information for

the next decade.

The nature of the concerted effort of the Climate Change

Science Program (CCSP) calls for an overarching data

policy that provides full and open access to Earth sciencerelated data in a timely fashion.The terms and conditions

of exchange and use for this purpose should be agreed to

both nationally and internationally. In the early 1990s, the

U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) agreed

to data exchange principles that are still adhered to today

(see Box 13-1).The governing law for U.S. Government

agencies, OMB Circular A130, specifically states that the

“open and efficient exchange of scientific and technical

government information, subject to applicable national

security controls and the proprietary rights of others,

fosters excellence in scientific research and effective use of

federal research and development funds.” Office of

Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A130 establishes

agency user charges at the marginal cost of dissemination,

including a provision that agencies can plan to “establish

user charges at less than cost of dissemination because of a

determination that higher charges would constitute a

significant barrier to properly performing the agency’s functions,

including reaching members of the public whom the agency has a

responsibility to inform”.This lofty standard should be emulated by

all participants in the larger endeavor described by this plan.

The need to manage data as a shared national resource in a manner

that focuses on the needs of end users has not previously been

recognized, nor has the challenge been undertaken in a serious and

systematic manner. Climate data are complex and variable as the

data are obtained by diverse means, across a broad range of disciplines,

for a variety of purposes, and by wide-ranging organizations—

individual researchers; institutions; private industry; and federal,

state, and local government organizations. These data come in

different forms, from a single variable measured at a single point

(e.g., a species name) to multi-variate, four-dimensional data sets

that may be petabytes (1015 bytes) in size.

Although new data sets that integrate information from multiple

sources are being developed, current efforts are limited in scope and

a significant expansion is required to meet the needs of policymakers

and scientists.The challenge is that data are often inconsistently

calibrated in space or time—making scientifically sound integration

of multiple data sets difficult. No simple data standard can be

designed that all data providers will utilize. Moreover, the U.S.

government has limited resources to support long-term electronic

data management beyond the life of individual investigators’ projects

or programs. Currently, no interagency management structure

CHAPTER

143

Data Management and Information 13 
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

exists to develop and enforce adoption of a complex data management

solution. Scientific data that are not institutionally managed are at

serious risk of vanishing when the scientist or data collector turns

to other projects or retires.

Traditional core activities within data management have been

regarded to be data curation—quality control, context-setting (i.e.,

metadata), preservation, etc.—and distribution of data sets. In

order to focus on the needs of the scientists who use the data, we

must significantly expand this core to include data discovery (the

ability to locate data that are distributed across multiple institutions

and disciplines) and data interoperability (changes to how we conduct

data management in ways that free users from the productivity

losses associated with incompatible formats, unwieldy file sizes, and

large non-aggregated collections).

In addition, many of the scientific and decision support needs of the

CCSP require analysis and processing of data into specialized products.

Even with a large number of measurement systems, there will always

be quantities of interest that are either impractical or impossible to

measure directly or routinely.Thus, physical models using instrument

data as inputs are implemented and can help fill some of the unmet

measurement needs of the program. Additionally, products are

developed not to fill unmet measurement

needs, but instead to improve the quality

of existing measurements.

Fulfilling the need for climate and

climate-related data that are useful for

scientists, planners, and other end users

will be a complex task.The overall

challenge, then, is:

To provide seamless, platform-independent,

timely, and open access to integrated

data, products, information, and tools

with sufficient accuracy and precision to

address climate and associated global

changes.

This challenge can be met through

development of a system that efficiently

links observations to data management

and analysis, and ensures timely delivery of

climate data and related information and

their preservation for future generations

(see Figure 13-1).This integration can

be implemented using proven and

emerging technologies such as the

Internet and digital libraries. Specific

goals in this effort are:

1) Collect and manage data in multiple

locations

2) Enable users to discover and access

data and information via the Internet

3) Develop integrated information

data products for scientists and

decisionmakers

4) Identify data to be preserved.

These goals will be achieved through implementation of an effective

management structure that will ensure interagency coordination of

these efforts, scientific and technological guidance, and user input

and requirements.

Researchers, planners, and decisionmakers need seamless access not

only to information produced by CCSP efforts, but also to the larger

scope of information produced by other federal, non-federal,

regional, and international programs and activities.These users should

be able to focus their attention on the information content of the

data, rather than how to discover, access, and use it.The challenge for

data management is a system where the user experience will change

fundamentally from the current process of locating, downloading,

reformatting, and displaying to one of accessing information,

browsing, and comparing data with standard tools, such as web

browsers, geographic information system (GIS) programs, and

scientific visualization/analysis systems, without concern for data

format, data location, or data volume.

The strategy for building this framework must be an evolutionary

process with a development model based on ongoing interactions

with users. In addition, modifications to existing systems and the

development of new systems will require use of existing technologies

144

• The USGCRP requires an early and

continuing commitment to the

establishment, maintenance,

validation, description, accessibility,

and distribution of high-quality, longterm data sets.

• Full and open sharing of the full suite

of global data sets for all global

change researchers is a fundamental

objective.

• Preservation of all data needed for

long-term global change research is

required. For each and every global

change data parameter, there should

be at least one explicitly designated

archive. Procedures and criteria for

setting priorities for data acquisition,

retention, and purging should be

developed by participating agencies,

both nationally and internationally. A

clearinghouse process should be

established to prevent the purging

and loss of important data sets.

• Data archives must include easily

accessible information about the data

holdings, including quality assessments,

supporting ancillary information,

and guidance and aids for locating

and obtaining the data.

• National and international standards

should be used to the greatest extent

possible for media and for processing

and communication of global data

sets.

• Data should be provided at the lowest

possible cost to global change

researchers in the interest of full and

open access to data.This cost

should, as a first principle, be no

more than the marginal cost of filling

a specific user request. Agencies

should act to streamline administrative

arrangements for exchanging data

among researchers.

• For those programs in which selected

principal investigators have initial

periods of exclusive data use, data

should be made openly available as

soon as they become widely useful.

In each case, the funding agency

should explicitly define the duration

of any exclusive use period.

DATA MANAGEMENT FOR

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

POLICY STATEMENTS

BOX 13-1 
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 13. Data Management and Information

with the vision that the systems would be regularly updated with

new technologies to respond to user requirements. Such a framework,

with established metadata and quality control/quality assurance

standards, mechanisms of transport, protocols, and requirements, will

permit data and product providers to contribute their information

as well as allow users to query and access the system for relevant

information.The challenges to CCSP will be pursuing unprecedented

levels of cooperation across current data management institutions

and programs and a commitment to mapping the future development

and execution of a suitable strategic plan.

The guiding principles for this CCSP data management plan are:

• The measure of success will be the ability of scientists and

decisionmakers to access “stand-alone” or “integrated” data and

information in a consistent and easily accessed format.

• The value added will be integration—many types of climate

data from different suppliers will be available in a manner

consistent with user requirements.

• The methods used by data suppliers to deliver data to their

“customers” need will evolve with new technology.

• It will be easy for users to discover and access data (local,

regional, national, and international).

• The system will be responsive to user feedback.

• The system will preserve irreplaceable data, making use of

effective compression technologies where appropriate.

• There will be an open design and open standards process.

• Operations will be reliable, sustained, and efficient.

A distributed system requires CCSP to exploit advances in information

technology that enable the development of a distributed data and

information system in which data will be collected and managed in

multiple locations including federal, state, and local agencies;

academic institutions; and non-governmental organizations. Our

ability to provide Climate Data Records (CDRs; see Chapter 12,

Objective 3.4) and climate information to the community will

depend on the interoperability of the system and metadata standards.

Long-term archiving and stewardship of the data will be the

responsibility of accredited (typically federal) data centers.

Objective 1.1: Develop standard metadata guidelines

Under this objective, CCSP will provide additional specific communitybased guidelines for scientific metadata content where and as

appropriate. One approach will be to adopt the ISO 19115/TC211

Geographic Information/Geomatics standard

(<http://www.isotc211.org>), which is built on the Federal

Geospatial Data Clearinghouse (FGDC) core standards.

145

Individual Researchers; Institutions; Private Industry;

and Federal, State, and Local Government Organizations

Quality Control, Context Setting,

Metadata, and Preservation

Distributed, Heterogeneous

Science Communities

Federal, Non-Federal, Regional, and

International Programs and Activities

Web Browsers, GIS Tools, Scientific

Visualization, and Analysis Systems

Data Sources - NASA, NOAA,

USGS, NSF, DOE, others Raw Observational Data

Data Management and Archiving

Data Analysis and Manipulation

User Communities

Delivery Systems

Information, Products,

and Service Providers

Decision Support Systems

Societal Impacts

and Outcomes

To provide seamless, timely access to integrated climate

data, information, and products within the next decade

VISION

Figure 13-1: Roadmap from data collection to decision support. Source: NASA.

Goal 1: Collect and manage data in multiple locations.
Chapter 13. Data Management and Information Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

implementation of tools to enable communication among multiple

data locations.The process of identifying the data requirements of

the program on a regular basis, including visualization, analysis, and

modeling requirements, needs to be strengthened. Human resources

will be required to perform these tasks, particularly individuals

with the technical expertise to support user requirements.These

needs will be addressed by CCSP (see Figure 13-2).

Objective 2.1: Improve access to data

Several activities are planned under this objective which will enable

improved access to data:

• Expand the Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) to facilitate

access to data. Agencies will provide descriptions in the format

needed for this action.

• Ensure the provision of socioeconomic data collected by federal

statistical agencies (e.g., the Census Bureau and the Bureau of

Economic Affairs), by resource management agencies (e.g., the

U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Army Corps of

Engineers, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Bureau of

Land Management, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), by

energy-related agencies (e.g., the Department of Energy and the

Environmental Protection Agency), and by state and local agencies.

Objective 2.2: Management of biological data

Management of biological data will receive priority. Objective 2.3

of the Observing and Monitoring research element focuses on

developing new capabilities for ecosystem observations.This is a

CCRI priority and is a critical need for evaluating the effects of

146

Objective 1.2: Expand

collaboration among data providers

CCSP will expand the collaboration between the federal data centers

and external (university, commercial, and non-profit) data service

providers.This collaboration will build on the strong foundation

provided by existing distributed systems, encompassing the data

centers established by federal science agencies, such as the National

Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Energy,

U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS),

and the National Science Foundation.The data management plan

also calls for expanding partnerships with foreign governments,

intergovernmental agencies, and international scientific bodies and

data networks to provide data that are needed to address the

international character of research and decisionmaking.These

collaborations should improve access to regional, state, and local data.

This goal requires a greater emphasis on the development of a

framework to respond to the need for integration and communication

of information across disciplines and among scientists and policymakers.

Multi-agency and multidisciplinary institutional and data resources

will need to be targeted to develop standards and processes for

sound data management. System upgrades need to include the

Goal 2: Enable users to discover and access data and

information via the Internet.

MODEL FORCING FORECAST DATA

OBSERVATIONS SATELLITE DATA

MODEL FORCING FORECAST DATA

Keyword or Free-Text Search for Data

<http://gcmd.nasa.gov>

SEARCH

Metadata

Records

User

Connects to

GCMD

Web Site

Related_URL

GCMD

Database

Link Directly to Data Resource

Search Translated

to Query

MODIS

Ocean

Products

Related

URL

Returned within

Metadata Record

Figure 13-2:

Search and direct

retrieval of data set

information from

NASA’s Global Change

Master Directory.

Source: NASA.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 13. Data Management and Information

climate change on ecosystems. Biological data management is

hampered by its requirement for extensive metadata, changes in

named taxonomic species, and availability (at present mostly in nonelectronic form and in the hands of individual investigators).

Objective 2.3: Data and information portals

Under this objective, CCSP will consolidate agency data information

into one portal; that is, an agency home page would provide a

mechanism for identifying all available data and information. CCSP

will create special, tailored portals for data products of interest to

the various CCSP working groups.These portals will use the

emerging web metadata clearinghouse technology to allow

researchers to locate and access coincident data of interest from

various observation systems.This will require implementation of

climate-quality data and metadata documentation, standards, and

formatting policies that will make possible the combined use of

targeted data products taken at different times, by different means,

and for different purposes. Additionally, CCSP will work toward

supporting the national climate observing system monitoring

architecture described in Chapter 12 (Objective 1.7) 

The goal of information analysis and interpretation is to incorporate

the multidisciplinary science elements of the CCSP in order to

integrate information and provide integrated products.This requires

that links between scientists and data managers on one hand and

data quality and data products on the other need to be enhanced to

provide a more effective translation of user requirements into data

products (see Chapter 12, Objective 3.4). Data managers must be

able to understand, communicate, and work closely with scientists

and others to ensure proper stewardship for the data archive and its

distribution. Data managers must be included in scientific working

groups and steering committees to guide the integration of data

management and science and decision support. CCSP will ensure

data quality and preservation by making data management an integral

part of any observing or data collection program. Decision support

needs will set the priorities for integrated products and help to

define and address data management issues associated with the

integrated products.

Objective 3.1: Establish links between

data providers and decisionmakers

A dialogue needs to be established between data providers and

decisionmakers to understand how scientific resources and knowledge

are currently used by decisionmakers. Scientific discussion, planning,

and implementation are needed for key data issues (e.g., gridding

algorithms, gap-filling periods of missing observations) to permit

assimilation of many CCSP data products. CCSP data analysis will

draw on and promote further advances in data-processing automation,

data visualization techniques, and web-based data delivery mechanisms.

Activities under this objective include:

• Create a link on the CCSP website where decisionmakers can

search for, locate, and link to data and information products

identified by CCSP working groups as potentially of significant

utility.

• Develop a prototype of the provision of support services for

decision support systems. Provide an initial operational capability

that interfaces one or more CCSP data systems to one or more

decision support systems.

• Implement procedures to solicit climate information requirements

from regions, sectors, and users who are using climate projections

for management and policy decisions.

Objective 3.2:Application of

data products and information

The emphasis on regional data, modeling, and decision support

activities is increasing. Researchers and stakeholders are collaborating

to develop applications based on research findings. An example of

this effort is an experiment to integrate scientists and stakeholders

to frame and apply El Niño-Southern Oscillation forecasts and other

research products in a variety of regions and economic sectors.

Regional environmental data products that can provide up-to-date

information on environmental conditions to decisionmakers—and,

if appropriate, allow an interactive “If..., then...” environment—

must be anchored in considerations of input and process uncertainties

and outcome accuracies. Decision support services must provide

information about uncertainty to be of maximum utility to

decisionmakers.This objective includes:

• Improve access to climate data and information for addressing

regional concerns and issues

• Provide geo-referenced and spatially and temporally averaged

socioeconomic data products for integrated studies

• Continually improve and clearly articulate the accuracy of

regional data.

Objective 3.3: Harness emerging technologies

CCSP needs to take advantage of emerging information systems

such as Digital Libraries (DLs). DL is a paradigm for investment by

several agencies that has the potential of becoming the world’s most

vital environment for discourse and resources promoting excellence

in science and education. Data management could be greatly

informed and enabled by the DL technology.The guiding principles

for the development of DL are to provide a spectrum of

interoperability, to provide one library with many portals, and to

leverage the energy and achievements of others. DL’s effort will

focus on building a comprehensive library of digital resources and

this effort will enhance CCSP’s successful implementation.

One daunting challenge of the 21st century is the management of

the large volume of highly diverse data describing the Earth’s climate.

These data are a result of comprehensive observing and monitoring

systems and models producing new data sets from the climate

observations.The size of the data archives is growing faster than we

can derive information from them. For example, NASA’s Earth

science data holdings increased by a factor of six between 1994 and

1999; the total amount of data doubled between 1999 and 2000. It

is estimated that by 2010, the size of a major U.S. archive for data

from NOAA, NASA, and USGS will be 18,000 terabytes (1018

bytes). Lessons learned from NASA’s pioneering efforts in handling

their current holdings (more than 2,500 terabytes) must be used by

147

Goal 3: Develop integrated information data products

for scientists and decisionmakers.

Goal 4: Preserve data.
Chapter 13. Data Management and Information Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

the community. In addition, new technologies need to be developed

that will enable us to keep all data needed for long-term global

change research, reducing the need to prioritize which data will be

archived.This endeavor would also consider lessons learned from

communities that already handle this volume of data (e.g., defense

intelligence, commercial video streaming).

Objective 4.1: Enhance the

data management infrastructure

Telecommunications bandwidth capacity must be adequate to

accommodate the movement of these larger data volumes as they

progress through an information cycle including measurements,

distributed scientific analyses, science models, predictions,

decision support tools, assessments, and policy and management

decisions. Increased levels of bandwidth will become available

through government research, development, and funding;

commercial availability and acquisition; and non-profit sector

partnering. It is important to keep in mind that the evolutionary

realization of this vitally needed infrastructure must be continually

planned. Another critical area requiring enhancement is the

development of new technologies for storage of large volumes of

data and information.

Objective 4.2: Preserve historical records

At the same time, many important heritage data sets face a growing

risk of loss due to deterioration of paper records, obsolescence of

electronic media and associated hardware and software, and the

gradual loss of experienced personnel (see, e.g., Figure 13-3).We

look to these historical records, from which we can derive longterm trends, to help provide the missing pieces of the overall climate

puzzle.The primary focus under this objective will be to identify

and rescue data that are at risk of being lost due to media deterioration,

poor accessibility, or limited distribution.

Objective 4.3: Support an open data policy

Another data management challenge is data policy—described as

the set of rules, regulations, laws, or agreements governing the

access and use of data. Database protection legislation, enacted in

Europe and proposed in the United States, has raised concerns that

the flow of scientific information may become much more constrained.

148

Chapter 3 –

Atmospheric Composition

• Improved description of the global

distributions of aerosols and their

properties.

• A 21st century chemical baseline for

the Pacific region against which

future changes can be assessed.

Chapter 4 –

Climate Variability and Change

• New and improved climate data

products, including assimilated data

from satellite retrievals and other

remotely sensed and in situ data for

model development and testing;

consistent and regularly updated

reanalysis data sets suitable for climate

studies; centuries-long retrospective

and projected climate system model

data sets; high-resolution data sets

for regional studies; and assimilated

aerosol, radiation, and cloud

microphysical data for areas with

high air pollution.

• A paleoclimatic database designed to

evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art

climate models to simulate observed

decadal to century-scale climate change,

responses to large changes in climate

forcing, and abrupt climate change.

Chapter 5 – Water Cycle

• Integrated long-term global and

regional data sets of critical water cycle

variables such as evapotranspiration,

soil moisture, groundwater, clouds,

etc., from satellite and in situ

observations for monitoring climate

trends and early detection of climate

change.

• Enhanced data sets for feedback

studies, including water cycle

variables, aerosols, vegetation, and

other related feedback variables,

generated from a combination of

satellite and ground-based data.

Chapter 6 –

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

• Global high-resolution satellite

remotely sensed data and land-cover

databases.

• Operational global monitoring of

land use and land-cover conditions.

Chapter 7 – Carbon Cycle

• Global, synoptic data products from

satellite remote sensing documenting

changes in terrestrial and marine

primary productivity, biomass,

vegetation structure, land cover, and

atmospheric column CO2.

• Landscape-scale estimates of carbon

stocks in agricultural, forest, and

range systems and unmanaged

ecosystems from spatially resolved

carbon inventory and remote-sensing

data.

Chapter 8 – Ecosystems

• Data sets for examining effects of

management and policy decisions on

a wide range of ecosystems to predict

the efficacy and tradeoffs of

management strategies at varying

scales.

• Synthesis of known effects of

increasing CO2, warming, and other

factors (e.g., increasing tropospheric

ozone) on terrestrial ecosystems

based on multi-factor experiments.

Chapter 9 –

Human Contributions

and Responses to

Environmental Change

• Assessments of the potential economic

impacts of climate change on the

producers and consumers of food

and fiber products.

• Elevation maps depicting areas

vulnerable to sea-level rise.

EXAMPLES OF DATA PRODUCTS

BOX 13-2
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 13. Data Management and Information

Many of these policies are in conflict with each other and the challenge

will be to understand these conflicts and chart a course that benefits

all.This will necessitate the close interaction of and negotiation

between the database rights holders and users, in order to strike a

balance between protection and fair use (NRC, 1999f). Compiling

long-term climate-quality data sets from which long-term climate

trends can be derived will be greatly affected by the future data

policies of national and international bodies. CCSP will develop and

implement guidelines for when and under what conditions data will

be made available to users other than those who collected them.

Working in partnership with members and representatives of the

research community in federal agencies and academia, and with

appropriate committees of the National Research Council, CCSP

will seek to identify the data requirements of the program on a

regular basis, including visualization, analysis, and modeling

requirements. Priority attention will be given to those observations

and data that are central to a specific research element but for

which requirements are not currently being met, or that exist but

are not part of a publicly available data system. Accomplishment of

these goals will require an integrated management structure that

involves the CCSP agencies with oversight by members of the

external community. A Data Management Steering Committee

composed of federal, state, academic, and industry managers and

decisionmakers will provide oversight, priorities, coordination, and

recommendations to the CCSP Data Management Working Group

(DMWG). DMWG will be responsible for the preparation,

implementation, and periodic review of data management activities,

and publication of annual reports describing milestones achieved

and future activities. Close links via shared membership will be

maintained with the Observing and Monitoring boards and councils

as described in Chapter 12.

CCSP will facilitate access to the data and information required and

generated as part of this program. A critical need for observations

and data are identified throughout this plan. Box 13-2 provides

examples from each research chapter that illustrates the type of data

products to be generated; Box 13-3 provides examples of the type of

information products. Note that this latter box does not reflect output

from the various modeling activities described in each chapter.

149

380

370

360

350

340

330

320

310

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

CO2 Concentration (ppmv)

Figure 13-3: Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration

at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over time. This figure illustrates the critical need to

preserve historical data. Source: Dave Keeling and Tim Whorf, Scripps

Institution of Oceanography.

Management Structure

National and International Partnerships

Chapter 3 – Atmospheric Composition

• A State of the Atmosphere 2006 report that describes

and interprets the annual status of the characteristics

and trends associated with atmospheric composition,

ozone layer depletion, temperature, rainfall, and

ecosystem exposure.

Chapter 4 – Climate Variability and Change

• Documented impacts of climate extremes on regions

and sectors, and evaluations (both positive and

negative) of the implications should climate change in

the future.

Chapter 5 – Water Cycle

• Assessment reports on the status and trends of water

flows, water uses, and storage changes for use in

analyses of water availability.

Chapter 6 – Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

• Report on the regional and national impacts of

different scenarios of land use and land cover on

water quality and quantity.

Chapter 7 – Carbon Cycle

• State of the Carbon Cycle report focused on North

America.

Chapter 8 – Ecosystems

• Reports describing the potential consequences of

global and climatic changes on selected arctic, alpine,

wetland, riverine, and estuarine ecosystems; selected

forest and rangeland ecosystems; selected desert

ecosystems; and the Great Lakes.

Chapter 9 – Human Contributions and

Responses to Environmental Change

• Assessments of the potential health effects of combined

exposures to climatic and other environmental factors

(e.g., air pollution).

EXAMPLES OF

INFORMATION PRODUCTS

BOX 13-3
Chapter 13. Data Management and Information Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

The generation of U.S. and global data products will require

cooperation with national and international data centers and

institutions.The CCSP will utilize and participate in the development

of the data discovery and data interoperability framework being

advanced by other programs such as the U.S. Integrated Ocean

Observing System effort. CCSP will coordinate its activities with

international programs to take advantage of emerging data

management and information tools and technologies and sharing of

climate change data and information. Examples of international

programs that actively engage in data management include the

World Data Center system, which functions under the guidance of

the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and facilitates

international exchange of scientific data; the World Climate

Research Programme, which sponsors multiple major projects

involving international cooperation and data collection with guidance

by a Joint Scientific Committee; the International Human

Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change Data and

Information System (IHDP/DIS), which links social science data

centers and scientists; and the Data Management Coordination

Group of the Joint World Meteorological Organization/

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Technical

Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, which is

currently developing an Oceans Information Technology Pilot Project.

150

Lead Authors

Margarita Conkright, NOAA and CCSPO

Wanda Ferrell, DOE

Clifford Jacobs, NSF

Martha Maiden, NASA

Contributors

Vanessa Griffin, NASA

Steve Hankin, NOAA

Thomas Karl, NOAA

Chet Koblinsky, NASA

CHAPTER 13 AUTHORS
This chapter describes how the Climate Change Science

Program (CCSP) will improve communication of federal

government climate change science research. It highlights

current CCSP communication activities and outlines a

series of future steps.

The CCSP has a responsibility for credible and effective

communications with stakeholders in the United States and

throughout the world on issues related to climate variability

and climate change science. Effective communication is not

always straightforward, however, as climate science is

complex and rapidly evolving, and respected scientists can

sometimes disagree in their interpretations.The economic

and policy dimensions of the issue can give rise to even

greater disputes among individuals with different policy

views. Professional, institutional, and cultural perspectives

can also impede the flow of information.

At the same time, the public investment in understanding,

mitigating, and adapting to climate variability and change

is substantial.As an essential part of its mission and

responsibilities, the CCSP will enhance the quality of public

discussion by stressing openness and transparency in its

scientific research processes and results, and ensuring the widespread

availability of credible, science-based information.

The CCSP and individual federal agencies generate substantial

amounts of authoritative scientific information on climate variability

and change.While public and private sector interests have made

progress in generating valuable climate science information, efforts

to improve public access to this information have not always kept

pace. Research findings are generally well reported in the scientific

literature, but relevant aspects of these findings need to be reported

in formats suitable for use by diverse audiences whose understanding

and familiarity with climate change science issues vary.

To further its commitment to the effective communication of climate

change science information, the CCSP has established the following

goals:

• Disseminate the results of CCSP activities credibly and effectively

• Make CCSP science findings and products easily available to a

diverse set of audiences.

In addition to CCSP efforts, individual federal agencies have

relationships with stakeholders, and they disseminate science-based

climate information. Efforts include activities in which agencies

respond directly to inquiries from the public and other stakeholders;

maintain websites and listservs; produce and distribute hardcopy

documents and multimedia products; conduct or sponsor briefings,

lectures, and press conferences; testify before Congress or other

CHAPTER

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CHAPTER CONTENTS

The Need for Effective Communication

Dissemination of Credible and Reliable Research

Findings

Communication with Diverse Audiences

Coordination and Implementation

Communications 14

The Need for Effective Communication
Chapter 14. Communications Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

planning process, including the Discussion Draft Strategic Plan, all of

the workshop proceedings, and all public comments received after

the workshop are openly available at the CCSP website,

<www.climatescience.gov>.

Reports on the Basis for Findings

and Levels of Confidence

CCSP aims to describe the basis for each of its key findings and

projections, with sufficient detail to allow independent reviewers to

replicate the underlying analyses. Evaluation and communication of

uncertainty and levels of confidence is also a crucial issue.

Uncertainties can arise from lack of knowledge; from problems

with data, models, terminology, or assumptions; and from other

sources, creating room for misunderstanding.

Because uncertainty can never be completely eliminated, CCSP will

develop systematic approaches for evaluating levels of confidence

and uncertainty and communicating this information.This will

enable users of the information to understand the uses and limits of

the information they are seeking to apply.Where appropriate,

“confidence level” descriptions will be used to communicate these

characterizations.The introduction of uncertainty is not intended to

imply a basis for inaction. In cases where the uncertainty of analyses

or projections is so large as to make the discrimination between

options impractical, this finding will be reported directly.

The Audience

Section 102 of the 1990 Global Change Research Act (P.L. 101-606)

requires CCSP to “consult with actual and potential users of the

results of the Program to ensure that such results are useful in

developing national and international policy responses to global

change.” As described in Chapter 11, CCSP is responding to this

charge within the framework of three decisionmaking categories:

(1) public discussions and evaluations based on available state-ofscience syntheses; (2) operational adaptive management decisions

undertaken by resource managers; and (3) support for policy

formulation.

Each of these decisionmaking categories has a unique set of

stakeholders. Stakeholders are individuals or groups whose interests

(financial, cultural, value-based, or other) are affected by climate

variability, climate change, or options for adapting to or mitigating

these phenomena. CCSP stakeholders range from members of

Congress to those involved in the development of state and

regional drought action plans, to those managers of agricultural

operations, water resource systems, fire, and fisheries, to the general

public.

Interactive Communication

CCSP will actively seek to learn from its constituencies through

ongoing dialogue and feedback mechanisms.The CCSP will aim to

improve dialogue with public and private sector constituencies with

152

government bodies; finance scholarships, fellowships, and internships;

support museum exhibits and other public displays; sponsor,

participate, or otherwise contribute to meetings attended by

stakeholders; provide scientifically sound content for K-12 education

activities; and fund communication efforts managed outside the

federal government.Working with the agencies’ climate science

communications activities will be a key component of CCSP

communications efforts.

The CCSP acknowledges that in seeking to strengthen its ongoing

communications with diverse constituencies—ranging from

international, national, and regional policymakers to academic

researchers, adaptive management technical experts, the media, and

concerned citizens—it faces the challenges of constrained resources

and institutional fragmentation. CCSP’s ongoing communications

efforts will build on existing resources and explore new

communications and information-sharing opportunities.

Responding to the direction of President Bush that the best available

scientific information be developed to support decisionmaking on

global climate change issues, CCSP has developed its strategic

planning and public review processes to facilitate “credible fact

finding” on (a) key climate science issues, (b) comprehensive climate

and ecosystem observing and data management systems, and (c) the

development of decision support resources.

Transparency and

Comprehensiveness

CCSP will undertake a number of approaches for ensuring that

research plans, reports, and related activities are prepared in an

open fashion. Approaches will include early and ongoing review of

draft and final work products by stakeholder communities; reporting

of key assumptions, methodologies, data, and uncertainties; the use

of a variety of decision support tools discussed in Chapter 11 that

relate research findings to policymakers and technical experts

involved in adaptive management decisions; and web-based

information that is freely available to all users.

To maintain credibility among users of the CCSP analyses and

projections, CCSP draft and final plans, reports of findings, and

projections of future outcomes will be posted on publicly accessible

websites, and all comments communicated by interested stakeholders

also will be posted for public review. CCSP will aim to make its

analyses comprehensive (i.e., covering a range of plausible policy

options) within the limits of the resources available for analysis.

Moreover, whenever possible and practical, CCSP will facilitate

comparisons with other relevant studies.

The CCSP public workshop held in December 2002 set a high

standard of open proceedings.The workshop presented the

current state of climate change science and gathered comments

from both scientists and public stakeholders on defining a strategy

for climate observations and research. All elements of the strategic

Dissemination of Credible and Reliable

Research Findings

Communication with

Diverse Audiences
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 14. Communications

the end result of providing stakeholders with adequate opportunities

to help frame important scientific research activities.This dialogue

is an essential component of the development of decision support

discussed in Chapter 11 (see Figure 14-1).

Where practical and effective, CCSP will communicate through

professional, civic, and other membership organizations representing

key constituency groups, and through the news media. In this way,

CCSP can leverage those organizations’ and institutions’ information

dissemination capabilities.

CCSP will initiate a series of pilot projects that will serve as a

basis for longer term sustained efforts to improve two-way

communications with a wide range of interests.This effort will

reflect a commitment to learn from those same interests, and

incorporate feedback received regarding successes and shortcomings.

The initial pilots will be modest in scope and will likely involve

expansion of existing partnerships—for instance, an initiative to

coordinate information access and linkages among existing climate

change science-related websites.The pilot projects, as is the case

with ongoing communications efforts, will include an evaluation

phase to determine the design and implementation of subsequent

communication activities.

Accessibility of Science Information

for Diverse Audiences

The American public is making a sizeable financial commitment to

improving scientific understanding of climate variability and change.

In turn, the American public has a right to expect ongoing access to

high-quality scientific assessments and evaluations.

There are many channels of communication that are available to

CCSP, including:

• Peer-reviewed scientific publications and science summaries for

diverse audiences

• The CCSP website

• The media

• Other outreach materials.

Publications

Most of the information produced under CCSP sponsorship is in

the form of peer-reviewed, published scientific articles and reviews.

153

Figure 14-1: Two-way communications. The CCSP

plan encourages input from specific constituent groups

and from the public at large. Here, Janine Bloomfield of

Environmental Defense, a participant in the CCSP

Planning Workshop for Scientists and Stakeholders,

comments in a session on Resource Management

Decision Support (4 December 2002).

Source: Nick Sundt, CCSPO.

Figure 14-2: Our Changing Planet. Issued annually by CCSP, this report

summarizes the program’s recent accomplishments and near-term plans.

Published in hardcopy and in digital format, Our Changing Planet is a primary

source of information about federally funded research on global change.
Chapter 14. Communications Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

• Strengthen ties and links among CCSP interagency and agency

websites

• Expand online support for interagency working groups

• Better meet the growing demand for digital images

• Foster timely interactive dialogues with stakeholders

• Solicit from users reactions on usefulness of websites and ways

to make them more effective

• Produce periodic and annual summary reports documenting

progress and near-term objectives.

The Media

Americans obtain most of their news and information, and therefore

their impressions, about climate science through the mass-circulation

print and broadcast news media (see Figure 14-3). As they do in

other important public policy/science issues, the news media play

an essential role in informing Americans about climate change and

climate variability. CCSP will help ensure that the news media are

well equipped to meet the needs of their audiences by supporting

distribution of timely, credible, and useful information to news media

through printed and electronic means, and through participation

with and support for climate science journalism training activities as

appropriate.

Other Outreach Materials

CCSP will develop outreach materials on climate change science

fundamentals geared to varied audiences, using formats such as

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) and educational fact sheets.

154

These articles and reviews are the products of specific agency program

efforts and are the working base of scientific knowledge. In addition

to the core research publications, CCSP will produce interagency

reports that integrate and synthesize information from nationally

and internationally sponsored climate science activities. One of

these reports will address climate change issues framed in a practical,

real-life perspective for the concerned, general public.

As described in Chapter 2, CCSP will focus interagency attention

on the ongoing development of synthesis and assessment products.

These products will support both policymaking and adaptive

management.The synthesis and assessment products take account of

the need for assessments on the full range of issues spanning all

CCSP objectives and will provide a “snapshot” of knowledge of the

climate, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects of climate

variability and change.The products will support specific groups or

decision contexts across the full range of issues addressed by CCSP,

and where appropriate, the Climate Change Technology Program

(CCTP).

Another CCSP publication is the Our Changing Planet report (see

Figure 14-2), which has established itself as the authoritative guide

to ongoing climate science research by federal agencies.This annual

report describes the activities, budgets, and plans of the U.S.

Global Change Research Program (USGCRP).The 2003 report,a

supplement to the President’s Fiscal Year 2003 Budget, also

describes the start-up activities of the U.S. Climate Change

Research Initiative (CCRI).

The CCSP Website

CCSP’s web initiatives are a valuable

tool for public education and

communications. Combined, the CCSP

and related websites—

<www.climatescience.gov>,

<www.usgcrp.gov>, and

<www.gcrio.org>—attract roughly

1 million visitors annually (see Box 14-1).

These websites provide a comprehensive

reference for users seeking information

on climate science structured around

scientific disciplines as well as by

sponsoring agency. In addition, scientists

can find information on funding sources

and announcements of research

opportunities.

The CCSP will implement a web

development strategy to improve

content and delivery to diverse

audiences to:

• Continue to update and improve

related interagency sites

• Increase target audience familiarity

with the CCSP websites and the

resources available through them

• Improve processes for preparing

documents for the web to ensure full

accessibility

The CCSP’s initial interagency efforts to

improve communications via the web

(primarily through <www.usgcrp.gov>,

<www.climatescience.gov>, and

<www.gcrio.org>) have attracted nearly

1 million visitors annually, a number that

has continued to steadily increase.

Additional users, including scientists,

resource managers, planners, business

executives, journalists, students, teachers,

and others are increasing their use of the

Internet. By providing outstanding

content, well-designed websites can

serve these diverse users.

The E-Government Strategy presented

by the Office of Management and

Budget (OMB) in February 2002

emphasized that “the President has made

‘Expanding E-Government’ integral to a

five-part Management Agenda for making

government more focused on citizens

and results.” One example of a low-cost,

high-payoff opportunity for expansion is

the extension of the CCSP’s web strategy

to the new website of the Climate

Change Technology Program (CCTP),

<www.climatetechnology.gov>.

Accordingly, the CCSP is cooperating

with its partner program in developing

the new site, and the resulting close

web collaboration will continue to be an

ongoing high priority of both programs.

This cooperative effort, in addition to

efficiently using existing interagency

resources, will provide early and tangible

evidence of the fundamental linkage

between climate science and

technology—and between the people

and organizations working on different

facets of the climate change issue.

‘E’ GOVERNMENT

AND CLIMATE SCIENCE

BOX 14-1 
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 14. Communications

These FAQs will address particular climate science issues, including

model studies, state-of-scientific-understanding reports, “If...,

then...” scenario analyses, and decision support resources. Each

will be coordinated and produced with the involvement of the

appropriate CCSP technical working groups.

CCSP also recognizes the value of collaborating with the traditional

formal educational community.Working with a network of federal

departments and agencies—and their own networks of partner

educational interests—CCSP will develop a series of “Climate in

the Classroom” educational fact sheets on climate science.These

“white papers” will be written to provide the lay public with

information on topics such as climate models, the role of aerosols,

or the influence of oceans in shaping climate.While concise and

easily accessible to a broad audience, these fact sheets will also point

to additional resources that will allow individuals to get additional

information.They will be disseminated electronically via the web

and also will be targeted to key educational institutions and to key

resource organizations for distribution to specialized constituencies.

The number of fact sheets for the coming year will be determined

by resource availability. At a minimum, four fact sheets will be

developed and distributed over the first year.

In order to accomplish the goals of the CCSP communications

efforts, new mechanisms for interagency coordination and

implementation are needed. CCSP will:

• Formalize the interagency climate Outreach and Communications

working group so that it can participate actively in the

development of the CCSP master communications plan and

carry out CCSP-sponsored information dissemination and

outreach activities.This group will work with the CCSP sciencebased and decision support working groups to ensure that the

program’s communications needs are met.

• Develop a comprehensive communications implementation plan

and funding plan, based on an inventory of existing communications

activities and building on experience from several short-term

pilot projects to determine and shape ongoing effective

communication strategies.

Improved Interagency

Working Relationships

CCSP will formalize and engage the existing informal interagency

climate Outreach and Communications group. Membership will

consist of key agency professionals whose responsibilities routinely

involve work with climate change science as part of their

communications activities—typically through agency communication

and education programs.

The Outreach and Communications working group will work with

the seven CCSP science-based and separate decision support, data

management, and observations and monitoring groups. It will also

work with stakeholders to ensure that the information needs of

public and private sector interests are understood. Efforts to improve

coordination among CCSP participating agencies will capitalize on

existing distribution systems and the strengths of participating agencies.

Comprehensive

Communications Plan

With interagency input, the CCSP will develop a comprehensive

communications implementation plan and the corresponding

communications/education budget using the results of the climate

science outreach and education activities inventory now underway.

The inventory will describe ongoing federal agency communications

and educational outreach activities related to climate variability and

change science.The interagency communications plan will be based

on the inventory and agency expertise and will include several

short-term communications pilot projects in order to explore the

effectiveness of new communication strategies.

The implementation plan will contain specific benchmarks and time

tables to allow tracking of the plan’s progress. It will be developed

in cooperation with agency representatives and other stakeholder

interests and will be completed by the end of 2003.

155

Lead Authors

Bud Ward, CCSPO

Nick Sundt, CCSPO

Susan Avery, NOAA and CCSPO

Stephanie Harrington, NOAA and CCSPO

James Mahoney, DOC

Richard Moss, CCSPO

Kathryn Parker, USEPA

CHAPTER 14 AUTHORS

Figure 14-3: A pivotal role for journalists. Because of their capability to

inform large and diverse audiences, the news media are crucial to CCSP’s

communications efforts. Shown here is Dr. John H. Marburger III, Assistant

to the President for Science and Technology and Director of the Office of

Science and Technology Policy, responding to journalists’ questions at the

CCSP Planning Workshop for Scientists and Stakeholders (3 December

2002). Source: Nick Sundt, CCSPO.

Coordination and

Implementation
156
Climate varies over a wide range of geographic scales that

transcend national boundaries. Climate change and its

impacts are therefore intrinsically international in scope.

To study climate change and variability on appropriate scales

thus requires international cooperation—cooperation

among scientists and research institutions and governmental

agencies. U.S. scientists, institutions, and agencies are at

the forefront of such international cooperation, reflecting

the leadership role of U.S. climate science.The United

States, at the governmental level, similarly leads in efforts

to develop and maintain an intergovernmental framework

within which climate change science, including research and

observational programs, can be planned and implemented.

The overarching goals of U.S. efforts to promote

international cooperation in support of the U.S. Climate

Change Science Program (CCSP) are therefore to:

• Actively promote and encourage cooperation between

U.S. scientists and scientific institutions and agencies

and their counterparts around the globe so that they can aggregate

the scientific and financial resources necessary to undertake

research on change at all relevant scales, including both the

regional and global.

• Expand observing systems in order to provide global observational

coverage of change in the atmosphere and oceans and on land,

especially as needed to underpin the research effort.

• Ensure that the data collected are of the highest quality possible

and suitable for both research and forecasting, and that these

data are exchanged and archived on a timely and effective basis

among all interested scientists and end users.

• Support development of scientific capabilities and the application

of results in developing countries in order to promote the fullest

possible participation by scientists and scientific institutions in

these countries in the above research, observational, and data

management efforts.

To achieve these goals, CCSP has assigned high priority to development

of international cooperation to support the research elements of the

program in the realization of programmatic goals.This includes

working closely with U.S. scientists involved in the various CCSP

components to ensure effective advocacy of their programmatic

needs and interests in the complex international framework that has

been established for global change research. CCSP supports U.S.

CHAPTER

157

CHAPTER CONTENTS

Goals for International Cooperation in Climate

Science

The International Framework

International Assessments and Applications

Engaging the International Global Change Research

Community

Bilateral Discussions

Research

Observing Systems

Data Management

Capacity Building

U.S. Plans and Objectives for Future International

Cooperation

International Research and Cooperation 15 

Goals for International

Cooperation in Climate Science
Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research

(CGIAR).The United States, for example, is one of the largest

donors to CGIAR, which sponsors 16 international agricultural

research centers devoted to improving food security, alleviating

poverty, and improving the management of natural resources in

developing nations.These centers are engaged in biological research

that is intended to increase production of basic food crops and

livestock and to maintain and enhance the natural resource base

relating to soil, water, aquatic resources, agroforestry, and forestry.

The United States interacts at the intergovernmental level with

partner countries in United Nations organizations that support

global change research, both directly and indirectly. Preeminent

among these are the World Meteorological Organization (WMO);

the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization

(UNESCO); the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP);

the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the United Nations

Development Programme (UNDP); and the World Health

Organization (WHO).The anticipated re-entry of the United States

into UNESCO should provide additional opportunities for U.S.

scientists to interact with and participate in the full range of

UNESCO science activities.Through its participation in UNEP,

UNDP, and the World Bank, the United States also participates

actively in and supports the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the

primary international institution for the exchange of energy and

carbon sequestration technologies with the developing world.

As a leader in climate change science, the United States assumes

responsibility to participate in and provide data to international

assessments such as those concerning ozone, biodiversity, ecosystems,

and climate. In addition to the role that the United States plays in

assessments, the federal government also provides support for and

data to a number of programs that apply climate change information

to provide critical decision support resources such as the U.S.

Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Famine Early

Warning System (FEWS NET).

The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone

Layer stands as one of the best examples of effective international

cooperation on an environmental issue. In response to growing

evidence of stratospheric ozone depletion, the nations of the world

were able to develop the Montreal Protocol.Through global

cooperation and compliance and the development of new nondepleting technologies, the increase in atmospheric concentrations

of ozone-depleting gases has slowed and in some cases started to

decline. International assessment has been a critical part of this process

from the very beginning, providing the scientific underpinnings for

decisionmaking on this issue.The series of Scientific Assessments of

Ozone Depletion has provided decision support resources in the

form of scientific information about the global state of ozonedepleting compounds.

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is building a new

framework to link ecosystem services (e.g. food, fuel, clean water)

158

scientists in interfacing with international organizations and other

countries on the many broad issues related to global change and

global climate change.

CCSP remains dedicated to supporting and participating in existing

cutting-edge international climate change science and technology

research and assessments—for example, by assisting scientists in the

planning and implementation of international collaborative projects.

In doing so, CCSP continues to advocate maintaining the flexible

international framework that permits U.S. scientists and agencies to

select the approach that best suits their needs from various avenues

for international cooperation.

CCSP will continue to support improvement of data sharing across

international boundaries, thus contributing to the most effective

development of scientific results and knowledge; to seek reductions

in administrative and political barriers to international collaborative

research and scientific exchange; to support expansion of specific

observation systems and associated scientific infrastructure; and to

support research in areas such as the mitigation of and adaptation

to change—areas essential to economic development and its

sustainability. CCSP will also continue to support programs that are

building capacity through the training of competent scientists to

address global change issues, the education of stakeholders, and the

strengthening of institutions.

CCSP is a leader within a global network of active and engaged

international research scientists and institutions.This network has

developed an extensive framework to address both research and

observational requirements for addressing global climate change

issues.This framework includes a series of global-scale research

programs; non-governmental and intergovernmental international

organizations at both the regional and global level; various networks

for coordination of observing systems—both in situ and remote

sensing—and data exchange and management; international

assessments; and organizations that focus on education, training, and

capacity building.

The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the

International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP), the World

Climate Research Programme (WCRP), Diversitas, and the Earth

System Science Partnership (ESS-P) are among the most important

of these organizations. CCSP has and will continue to interact with

these organizations directly when appropriate, and by supporting

U.S. scientists to participate in and provide dynamic scientific

leadership for them through financial support, provision of data

products, and scientific input.

National agencies that conduct and fund global change research,

satellite remote-sensing systems, agricultural and forest research,

and development projects also coordinate their efforts with their

counterpart agencies in other countries through a number of

organizations and networks.These include the International Group

of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA), the

Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), and the

The International Framework

International Assessments and Applications
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation

with human well-being. MA takes an integrated and multi-scale

(local, regional, to global) approach and focuses on ecosystem

services, the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human

well-being, and the consequences of changes in ecosystems for other

life on Earth. It addresses questions like: “What are the potential

impacts, both positive and negative, of economic growth and

globalization on ecosystems?” and “What policies and actions

concerning ecosystems can best contribute to the alleviation of

poverty?” In particular, it assesses the current and historical trends

in ecosystems and their contribution to human health; choices for

conserving and sustainably managing ecosystems to augment their

contribution to human well-being; and scenarios for changes in

ecosystems and their impacts on human well-being. By taking an

integrated multi-scale approach that brings the latest scientific

data, MA will provide information that will allow decisionmakers

to review the trade-offs associated with choices they need to

make.

WMO and UNEP established the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to conduct multidisciplinary

reviews of current scientific and socioeconomic information

pertaining to climate change. IPCC performs its critical task

through an organizational structure composed of three working

groups and a task force:Working Group I assesses the science of the

climate system and climate change;Working Group II assesses the

vulnerability of socioeconomic and natural systems to climate

change;Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse

gas emissions and mitigating climate change; and the Task Force

focuses on inventories of national greenhouse gases. CCSP

participates extensively in the IPCC process, including support

of the Working Group I Technical Support Unit, support for

the IPCC Task Group on Scenarios for Climate and Impact

Assessment, and support for scientist participation in IPCC

activities.

The Famine Early Warning System Network is an example of how

climate information can and is directly supporting decisionmaking

in areas that are highly susceptible to both man-made and natural

hazards, including change.The network combines food economy

analysis, which analyzes the structure of poor urban and rural

households in Africa, with a variety of data including climate to

determine the risk of food shortage.These analyses are conducted

on a seasonal basis and in response to predicted and observed

hazards as well as other conditions that may threaten food security

(e.g. natural disasters, market data).

The United States and U.S. scientists engage the international global

change research community in a variety of ways—for example, by

sponsoring and contributing to climate change science-related

workshops that foster cutting-edge science collaborations.

The Interagency Working Group for International Research and

Cooperation (IWG-IRC) brings together the U.S. federal agencies

interested in international cooperation in climate change science.

This group traces its beginnings to the International Cooperation in

Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Title II).The primary purpose

of the working group is to provide international affairs support to

the research programs of CCSP. It consists of representatives of 11

U.S. agencies that have major interests in global climate change

science and technology. Meeting regularly, member agencies

exchange information on international issues pertaining to climate

change research and develop interagency approaches directed at

resolving these issues.The working group coordinates U.S.

interagency support for the international infrastructure that

provides coordination for the major international global change

research programs.

U.S. participation in IGFA aids in efforts to engage the national

funding agencies of over 20 member countries.This group ensures

that national funding agencies are regularly informed about national

global change research programs, supporting initiatives, facilities,

and related issues.The agencies then identify topics of mutual

interest that they address through their respective national processes

and, in some cases, coordinated international efforts. IGFA is also

concerned with the reduction of barriers to international collaborative

research at all levels—for example, constraints on the exchange of

scientists and equipment.

The United States actively promotes global change research in the

Antarctic and Arctic. Regarding the Antarctic, the United States

works through cooperation with parties to the Antarctic Treaty and

the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). Regarding

the Arctic, the United States works through the Arctic Council, the

International Arctic Sciences Committee (IASC), and the Arctic

Ocean Sciences Board (AOSB).Work with these organizations will

advance fundamental knowledge of the polar regions as well as

provide observations that are critical to our understanding of climate.

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), conducted under the

auspices of the Arctic Council and IASC, is assessing the consequences

of climate change on the circum-Arctic environment, its resources,

economy, and peoples.

An especially important example of U.S. efforts to engage scientists

in other countries in cooperative research involves Japan.The

United States is involved in a focused cooperative effort with Japan

in the geosciences and environment.Within this effort, a series of

10 annual workshops have been conducted on global change

research.This year, the United States hosted the 10th U.S.–Japan

workshop in this series, on the topic of “Water and Climate.”

Workshop topics for the two previous years were “Health and the

Environment” and “Carbon Cycle Management in Terrestrial

Ecosystems.”These meetings have proven to be an excellent forum

for the exchange of ideas and information and are serving to

stimulate international scientific collaborations.

A new series of bilateral discussions has recently been added to the

United States’ international affairs repertoire as a result of the

Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) of 2001.This initiative

provides yet another means to engage other countries in scientific

collaboration on climate change science and technology.These

activities are described in detail in the following section.

159

Engaging the International

Global Change Research Community
Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

President Bush’s climate change policy announcements on 11 June

2001 and 14 February 2002 highlighted the importance of international

cooperation to develop an effective and efficient global response to

the complex and long-term challenge of climate change. Under the

leadership of the Department of State, the United States adopted a

Bilateral Climate Change Strategy, focusing on countries or regional

entities that are responsible for nearly 75% of the world’s greenhouse

gas emissions.Through this important network of bilateral and

regional partnerships, the United States is advancing the science of

climate change, enhancing the technology to monitor and reduce

greenhouse gases, and assisting developing countries through capacity

building and technology transfer.

Working with a mix of developed and developing countries, the

Bilateral Climate Change Cooperation effort builds upon and

supplements the four U.S. international research and cooperation

activity goals: research, observations, data management and

distribution, and capacity building. Examples from the range of

activities included under the bilateral climate change effort are:

global climate observing systems; evaluation of climate systems

models; observations and data exchange; research on polar regions,

aerosols, and clouds; ocean and atmospheric research; research on

greenhouse gas sinks including land use, land-use change, and

forestry; advancement of clean and renewable energy technologies;

and energy efficiency. Capacity building and technology transfer

activities with developing countries also include cooperation in

economic and environmental/climate modeling, carbon cycle

measurements, monitoring and measurement of greenhouse gases,

development of adaptive capacity to improve resource management,

implementation of integrated environmental strategies, investments

in climate observing systems, and creating partnerships for energy

efficiency.

The United States has made significant progress on many aspects of

the President’s international climate change agenda through the

establishment of results-oriented “action plans” with bilateral and

regional partners.These partners include Australia, Japan, the seven

Central American countries (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador,

Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama), the People’s

Republic of China, the European Union (EU), India, Italy, New

Zealand, Canada, the Russian Federation, the

Republic of Korea, Mexico, and South Africa.

Specific examples follow.

Under the U.S.–Australia Climate Action

Partnership (CAP) the focus is on practical

approaches towards dealing with climate

change. Specific priority areas included under

CAP are climate change science and monitoring;

renewable and reduced emission stationary

energy technologies; engagement with business

on technology development; policy design and

implementation; capacity building in developing

countries; and greenhouse gas accounting in the

forestry and agriculture sectors (see Figure 15-1).

160

Bilateral Discussions

Figure 15-1: Australia’s Federation Satellite carrying NASA’s Global

Positioning System receiver.

Figure 15-2: The NOAA Climate Monitoring and

Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) Carbon Cycle

Greenhouse Gases (CCGG) Group’s

Cooperative Air Sampling Network at Syowa,

Antarctica, is a collaboration with Japan’s National

Institute of Polar Research. The flasks collected here

are analyzed for 12 chemical species including

greenhouse gases and related isotopes.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation

The U.S.-Japan High Level Consultations on Climate Change

(HLC) Working Group on Science and Technology focuses on seven

priority areas: improvements of climate models; impacts and

adaptation/mitigation policy assessment employing emission-climate

impact integrated models; observation and international data

exchange and quality control (see, for example, Figure 15-2);

research on greenhouse gas sinks including land use, land-use

change, and forestry; research on polar regions; and development of

mitigation and prevention technologies. Experts also

are collaborating on issues relating to developing

countries and market-based approaches.

The United States and seven Central American

countries (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador,

Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama)

agreed to enhance climate change collaboration

under the auspices of the Central AmericanUnited States of America Joint Accord, known by

its Spanish acronym CONCAUSA.The partnership

emphasizes the need for intensified cooperative

efforts to address climate change through scientific

research, estimating and monitoring greenhouse

gases, investing in forestry conservation, enhancing

energy efficiency, utilizing new environmental

technologies, enhancing capacity to adapt to

climate change, and collaborating to better

understand its regional impacts. In March 2002,

the State Department announced a CONCAUSA

Action Plan that included $2 million in new funds

from USAID, with supplemental project support

from EPA and NASA.

The United States and the People’s Republic of

China have agreed under an approved charter to

collaborate on a broad suite of climate change

science and technology issues, including cooperative

research on and analysis of gases other than carbon

dioxide, economic/environmental modeling,

integrated assessments and evaluation strategies

for adaptation, capture and sequestration,

observations and measurements, institutional

partnerships, energy and environment follow-up

to the World Summit on Sustainable Development,

and existing clean energy protocols and annexes.

Under the agreement of representatives to the

U.S.–EU High Level Dialogue on Climate

Change on 23 April 2002, a “U.S.–EU Joint

Meeting on Climate Change Science and

Technology Research” convened in Washington on

5-6 February 2003, to enhance cooperation on

climate-related science and research.The two

sides identified cooperative research activities in

six areas: (1) carbon cycle research; (2) aerosolclimate interactions; (3) feedbacks, water vapor,

and thermohaline circulation; (4) integrated

observation systems and data; (5) carbon capture

and storage; and (6) hydrogen technology and

infrastructure.

The United States and Italy have developed a bilateral partnership

encompassing a wide range of cooperative science and technology

projects and activities, including climate change modeling, atmospheric

processes, the carbon cycle, remote sensing, human and ecosystem

health, and ocean observations and the ocean ecosystem. On the

technology side, the partnership is advancing cooperative efforts on

hydrogen infrastructure and energy technologies, including fuel

cells, renewable energy, advanced power systems, and advanced

161

Figure 15-3: NASA/NASDA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave imager data.
Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

energy technologies including carbon capture and sequestration.

The two countries have announced their intention to promote the

exchange of graduate students, young scientists, and senior scientists

in the area of climate change science and technology.

Most recently, the United States and India identified a broad range

of cooperative programs, including science and technology activities.

The two countries have identified collaborative efforts in the area of

climate change science—for example, the NASA/Japanese Space

Agency (NASDA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (see

Figure 15-3). Additional anticipated areas of collaboration are

adaptation, land-use change and forestry, climate modeling, ocean

observations for the Indian Ocean, economic and environmental

modeling, source-level measurement and monitoring, and a broad

range of energy issues.

As discussed in the opening section, the United States has a number

of goals with respect to climate change science research. International

cooperation in research has an important role in focusing the

world’s scientific resources on the highest priority global change

research issues, in helping to reduce scientific redundancy in a

world of limited financial resources, and in improving the exchange

of information internationally. U.S. research efforts are significantly

enhanced through international cooperation. By developing both

conceptual and research frameworks, international research programs

provide models that aid U.S. program managers to plan and

coordinate their efforts. CCSP will to continue to facilitate cuttingedge climate change research by providing appropriate venues and

resources for scientists to meet, to identify research areas of common

interest, and to plan and implement joint projects.

Much of the research conducted and sponsored through CCSP

benefits from and contributes to projects sponsored by the four

major international research programs: IGBP,WCRP, IHDP, and the

Diversitas program (see Table 15-1).The Diversitas program is

dedicated to fostering global research on biodiversity in order to

provide information to be integrated into conservation and

sustainable management of biodiversity.

Examples of the links between the CCSP research elements and

international programs include the Climate Variability and

Predictability (CLIVAR) program and the Global Energy and Water

Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), both core programs of WCRP.The

CCSP Climate Variability and Change research element will continue

to work with CLIVAR, Stratospheric Processes and their Role in

Climate (SPARC), Past Global Changes (PAGES), and Climate and

Cryosphere (CliC) programs. Both the CCSP Climate Variability

and Change and Water Cycle research elements will continue their

work in close coordination with the GEWEX program.

The CCSP research elements maintain regular exchanges with the

various international projects to which they are related.The U.S.

scientists leading CCSP projects have offered substantial input to

the design and implementation of many of these projects that are

now underway. In addition to programs and projects that operate

under the auspices of the international global change research

programs, the CCSP research elements interact with many others

(see Table 15-2). For example, the scientists involved in the U.S.

North American Carbon Program (NACP) will, in order to realize

the research goals of the program, expand their interaction with

162

Research

60¡S

30¡S

60¡N

30¡N

0¡

90¡E 180¡W 90¡W 0¡

United States

Not Funded

Spain

Netherlands

Canada

Australia

Germany

Japan

United Kingdom

France

Figure 15-4: Map of planned deep-ocean, repeat hydrography cruises to address scientific objectives of the U.S. CLIVAR and Carbon Cycle Science Program

objectives. Source: Chris Sabine, NOAA-PMEL.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation

colleagues in Canada and Mexico and with the Carboeurope cluster,

the International Global Observing Strategy Partnership (IGOS-P),

and the Global Carbon Project as well (see Chapter 7).The programs

described in these two tables represent the primary international

interactions of the research programs within CCSP.

The synergies and coordination developed by such parallel programs

are instrumental in addressing global and regional issues. For example,

representatives of the world’s major climate modeling centers form

the WCRP/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modeling

(WGCM) to collectively address needed advancements in coupled

163

Examples of key programs and projects with which the CCSP research elements

cooperate, coordinated through the four international research programs

Project Description

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)

International Global

Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC)

IGAC is dedicated to understanding the processes that determine atmospheric composition. This includes detailed

examination of the interactions between atmospheric and chemical composition, physical, biospheric, and climatic

processes. They also investigate the prediction of impacts on atmospheric composition associated with natural and

anthropogenic forcing (see Chapter 3). 

Past Global Changes (PAGES)

The primary objective of PAGES is to facilitate international cooperation in paleo-environmental research. PAGES

coordination embraces paleoclimatic aspects of the interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes that regulate

the Earth system, concentrating on those aspects which best inform our understanding of potential future changes of

relevance to human concerns (see Chapter 4).

Joint Global Ocean Flux Study

(JGOFS)

The JGOFS program was designed to advance our understanding of the processes that control carbon exchanges

between the atmosphere, surface ocean, ocean interior, and continental margins, and the sensitivity of these fluxes to

climate change.

GLOBal ocean ECosystems

dynamics (GLOBEC)

The GLOBEC program is designed to investigate and advance our knowledge of the global ocean ecosystem, its major

subsystems, and its response to physical forcing, with emphasis on natural variability (see Chapter 8).

Global Climate and Terrestrial

Ecosystems (GCTE) 

The GCTE program investigates the effects of climate changes, atmospheric composition, and land use on the structure

and function of terrestrial ecosystems and how they lead to feedbacks to the atmosphere and the climate system (see

Chapter 8).

Land-Ocean Interface in the

Coastal Zone (LOICZ) 

LOICZ studies biogeochemical processes and changes in the fluxes of materials from within river catchments to coastal

shelf boundaries, the influence of human activities on these changes, and the impact of flux changes on human welfare.

LOICZ also provides science information to the global community, especially decisionmakers and coastal zone managers

(see Chapter 8). 

Biospheric Aspects of the

Hydrological Cycle (BAHC) 

BAHC is an interdisciplinary project that fosters and promotes research to better understand the role that the terrestrial

biosphere plays in the Earth system, and the increasing human-induced changes (see Chapter 8).

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

Climate Variability and Change

(CLIVAR) 

The CLIVAR program is one of the major research efforts of WCRP concerned with climate variability, extending predictions

of climate variation and refining estimates of anthropogenic climate change. CLIVAR will advance the findings of the

successfully completed Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project, and continues its valuable work with the

World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) (see Chapter 4).

Stratospheric Processes And

their Role in Climate (SPARC)

SPARC concentrates on the interaction of dynamic, radiative, and chemical processes in the stratosphere and what role

they play in climate. SPARC is constructing a stratospheric reference climatology; improving the understanding of trends

in temperature, ozone, and water vapor in the stratosphere; and improving the understanding of gravity waves (see

Chapter 4).

The Global Energy and Water

Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) 

GEWEX focuses on the study of atmospheric and thermodynamic processes that determine the hydrological cycle and

water budget as well as their adjustments as a function of climate change (see Chapters 4 and 5).

Climate and Cryosphere, Arctic

Climate System Study (CliC,

ACSYS) 

ACSYS—a regional project studying climate of the Arctic region including its atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and hydrological

regime—is being expanded into a global project, CliC, to investigate the role of the entire cryosphere in global climate.

World Ocean Circulation

Experiment (WOCE) 

The WOCE program was designed to understand and predict changes in the world’s ocean circulation, volume, and heat

storage that would result from changes in atmospheric climate and net radiation with a variety of in situ, remote-sensing,

and modeling methodologies.

International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP)

Land-Use and Land- Cover

Change (LUCC) 

LUCC, co-sponsored by IGBP, focuses on the understanding of the interrelationship between land use and land-cover

change, biogeochemistry, and climate. It addresses these issues with an interdisciplinary approach utilizing case studies,

models, and integrative analyses. Topics such as climate change, food production, health, urbanization, coastal zone

management, transboundary migration, and the availability and quality of water are addressed in LUCC research (see

Chapter 6).

TABLE 15-1
Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

modeling of the global physical climate system. Research activities

coordinated by WCRP elements have led to major advancements in

the understanding and modeling of the North Atlantic

Oscillation/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAO/NAM),

improved precipitation and solar insulation products, and advanced

representations of the Arctic in models.

The CLIVAR Variability of the American Monsoon (VAMOS)

program has been instrumental in enlisting the participation of

South and Central American scientists to focus on observing,

modeling, and assessing variability of the American monsoon system

and our ability to predict its changes. A new era of cooperation

between participating scientists and key organizations responsible

for national meteorological and oceanographic observational

systems is not only entraining key scientists, but is also enhancing

existing observational systems, initiating new observation capabilities

(e.g., rain gauge and sounding networks) for climate and application

research, and providing improved practical knowledge for

decisionmakers.

U.S. scientists play an important role in the research programs

carried out by the Inter-American Institute for Global Change

Research (IAI), and in bringing together the more than 200

research universities and government institutions in the Western

Hemisphere that make up its research network. Research programs

sponsored by IAI have aided in the development of new decision and

management tools in diverse areas, ranging from the incorporation

of long-range forecasts into dam management for hydropower and

irrigation to the establishment of a tri-national sardine fishery

forum that regularly brings together regulatory agencies, resource

managers, fishermen, and researchers from Canada, Mexico, and

the United States. In addition, IAI research enabled the first rigorous

scientific ranking of the drivers of global change, based on scenarios

of changes in global biodiversity.

Some of the most productive international cooperative interactions

are developed through international research expeditions and field

experiments.The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) is an outstanding

example of a long-term field study that has obtained cores of sediments

and crustal rock from the oceans to improve understanding of the

history of changes in the oceans and climate.The National Science

Foundation (NSF) and Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture,

Sport, Science, and Technology (MEXT) signed a memorandum of

understanding in April of 2003 to further advance scientific ocean

drilling through a new Integrated Ocean Drilling Program

(IODP—see Figure 15-5). IODP will develop ocean sediment

records from a global array of sites to allow a sophisticated and

detailed analysis of the causes, rates, and severity of changes in the

Earth’s climate system and their relation to major pulses in biologic

evolution on time scales ranging from a few hundred years to more

than 500,000 years.

Other recent examples of successful field campaigns include the

Indoex campaign off of India and over the Indian Ocean to study

atmospheric aerosols; the ACE-Asia and TRACE-P field campaigns

to study atmospheric trace constituent and aerosol observations

over East Asia and the Western Pacific Ocean; and the Large Scale

Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) campaign to

study the ecology and hydrology of the Amazon region. Such field

campaigns and others have demonstrated the great value of having

good relationships with host countries to ensure the highest quality

scientific observations.

164

Examples of key programs and projects with which the CCSP research elements

cooperate, coordinated through the four international research programs

Project Description

Jointly Sponsored IGBP/WCRP/IHDP Projects

Global Environmental Change

and Food Systems (GECAFS)

GECAFS tries to address the suite of issues associated with population growth and globalization of economies as they

relate to food stability in the context of global environmental change. This includes consideration of the potential impacts

of global change on both individuals and societies (see Chapter 8).

The Global Carbon Project

(GCP)

GCP integrates atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, and human dimension aspects of the carbon cycle with commitment and

balanced input from the global environmental change programs. It has developed an international framework for carbon

research and investigates system-wide questions of interactions between humans and the carbon cycle. National and

regional studies contribute to the implementation of the project (see Chapter 7). 

The Global Water System

Project (GWS)

A joint water project, sponsored by all four global environmental change programs, is in the planning phase and will take

an integrative look at the global water system. GWS aims at understanding impacts of global change on local and regional

coupled water-human systems, and how local and regional anthropogenic activities in turn affect global environmental

change. Approaches to establish more sustainable water systems will be identified (see Chapter 5).

Global Change SysTem for

Analysis, Research, and

Training (START)

START focuses on regional interdisciplinary global change research. Its objective is to build scientific capacity in developing

countries through regional research and training to address the science and policy issues relevant to environmental

change and sustainable development. START has regional offices in East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania,

Africa, and the Mediterranean. 

Surface Ocean-Lower

Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) 

SOLAS is a new international research initiative to carry out research at the interface between the oceans and the

atmosphere in order to achieve a quantitative understanding of the key biogeochemical-physical interactions and feedbacks

between the ocean and the atmosphere, and how this coupled system affects and is affected by climate and environmental

change (see Chapter 8).

TABLE 15-1 (CONTINUED)
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation

Although climate modeling capabilities have progressed in recent

years, sustained improvements will require substantial expansion of

Earth observing systems, both remote and in situ, in order to fill

gaps in existing databases, especially in those areas of the world for

which existing data is sparse. Such data-sparse areas include remote

regions, especially those with harsh environments, and areas where

existing capabilities to make observations and collect data are limited,

such as the oceanic and interior land areas of the Southern

Hemisphere and both polar regions.

The United States hosted an Earth Observation Summit in July 2003

to engage the international community in a continuing dialogue on

the issues associated with building a comprehensive, integrated

Earth observation system.The Earth Observation Summit had four

165

Additional examples of key international and regional programs and projects

with which CCSP research elements cooperate and/or coordinate

Organization Project Description

Intergovernmental Organizations

World Meteorological

Organization (WMO)

Hydrology and Water

Resources Programme

This group focuses on the application of hydrology to sustainable development, the mitigation of

water-related disasters, and effective environmental management at national and international levels

(see Chapter 5).

United Nations

Educational, Scientific,

and Cultural Organization

(UNESCO) 

International Hydrological

Programme

This is an intergovernmental capacity-building program and information center for information

pertaining to water resources. It is dedicated to building the capacity of member states to better

manage and develop their water resources (see Chapter 5).

WMO/UNESCO

Hydrology for

Environment, Life, and

Policy (HELP) Program 

HELP is a joint initiative of UNESCO and WMO, led by the International Hydrological Programme.

HELP is creating a new approach to integrated catchment management through the creation of a

framework for water law and policy experts, water resource managers, and water scientists to work

together on water-related problems (see Chapter 5).

Northern Eurasia Earth

Science Partnership

Initiative (NEESPI)

NEESPI will identify the critical science questions and establish a program of coordinated research

on the state and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in northern Eurasia and their interactions with

the Earth's climate system to enhance scientific knowledge and develop predictive capabilities to

support informed decisionmaking and practical applications (see Chapter 6).

Intergovernmental

Oceanographic

Commission (IOC)/

Scientific Committee on

Ocean Research (SCOR)

Global Ecology and

Oceanography of

Harmful Algal Bloom

(GEOHAB)

The GEOHAB program is an international program designed to improve international capabilities for

effective management and mitigation of harmful algal blooms. This research program utilizes a

comparative approach at a variety of scales from the cellular to the ecosystem level. This research

effort will improve understanding of the distribution of and trends in harmful algal blooms and the

influences of anthropogenic and climate-related factors (see Chapter 8). 

Intergovernmental and Similar Organizations and Activities

International Research

Institute for Climate

Prediction (IRI)

IRI is dedicated to improving and providing climate predictions to help societies worldwide cope with

climate fluctuations, particularly extreme events that have great impacts on both human populations

and the environment.

European Commission Carboeurope

The Carboeurope cluster is a research program dedicated to understanding the terrestrial carbon

cycle for a range of environments in Europe, including carbon fixation and carbon sources and

sinks. These issues are considered in the context of climate variability, the availability of nutrients,

nitrogen deposition, and management. Their research effort is complemented by research in the

Amazon forests.

Inter-American Institute

for Global Change

Research (IAI)

IAI is an intergovernmental research organization supported by 19 countries in the Americas. It is

dedicated to the understanding of global change and its socioeconomic implications. This includes

study of the natural and social sciences, the full and open exchange of data relevant to global climate

change, augmenting the capacity of countries to conduct scientific research, and the provision of

information in a timely manner and in a useful form for policymakers (see Chapter 9).

Asia-Pacific Network for

Global Change Research

(APN)

APN fosters global environmental change research in the Asia-Pacific region, increases the

participation of developing countries in that research, and strengthens the connection between the

science community and policymakers.

International Long-Term

Ecological Research

(ILTER)

ILTER is an international organization dedicated to ecological research on long temporal scales and

large spatial scales (see Chapter 8).

TABLE 15-2

Observing Systems
Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

major goals: to promote the international exchange of in situ,

aircraft, and satellite observations in a full and open manner and in

a timely fashion with minimal cost; to gain international agreement

on the concept of an international, comprehensive, integrated, and

sustained Earth observation system that will meet collective

requirements for observations, minimize data gaps, and maximize

the utility of the system; to establish an intergovernmental ad hoc

working group to develop a 10-year implementation plan for the

system; and to help improve observing systems and advance the

scientific capacity in developing countries.

The United States supports a number of international observing

systems and networks with which the CCSP research programs

work closely (see Chapters 5, 6, 7, and 8).The International Global

Observing Strategy Partnership (IGOS-P) incorporates a number of

large-scale observing systems that are designed to cover land,

through the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS); the

ocean, through the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS); and

climate, through the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

and the Global Observing System/Global Atmosphere Watch

(GOS/GAW).The United States not only supports these programs

directly, but also encourages the international global change

research programs to ensure that the observational needs of research

scientists are fed into IGOS-P and that the partners also benefit

from the observational expertise developed in research projects.

In the Arctic, the United States is also involved in a number of

international observing projects such as the Arctic and Subarctic

Ocean Fluxes Study (ASOF) and the North Pole Environmental

Observatory (NPEO).The ASOF program, which the European

Commission also provides support for, will monitor and advance

understanding of the oceanic fluxes of heat, salt, and freshwater and

their effect on global ocean circulation. NPEO, coordinated with

Japan and Canada, is a series of drifting buoys, oceanographic

moorings, and hydrographic casts that serve collectively as an

observing system.

The CCSP research programs will need to continue to work closely

with these observational program groups in order to benefit from

and contribute to them. CCSP assigns very high priority to the Argo

ocean observations program, a global array of free-drifting profiling

floats that measures the temperature and salinity of the upper 2,000

meters of the ocean.The United States is actively seeking, through a

wide range of multilateral and bilateral cooperative efforts, to

encourage and promote a wide range of international participation to

complement the U.S. efforts. Cooperation in Argo has been initiated

successfully with Japan, Australia, the European Commission, China,

the Russian Federation, India, the Republic of Korea, Canada, Spain,

Norway, Germany, Denmark, France, the United Kingdom, and

New Zealand. Another important example of a focused observing

system of importance to CCSP is the program for the Global

Observation of Forest Cover and Global Observations of Land

Cover Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD—see Chapter 6).

Satellite remote-sensing systems are continually being developed to

take advantage of new technologies to collect an ever-widening range

of data on both global and regional scales. Successful implementation

of such systems requires development of collaborative international

ground-based networks, maintenance of these networks, and

assurance of calibration relative to widely recognized standards.This

can be accomplished only through collaboration among scientists

and national and international agencies from many nations. NASA

and NOAA work closely with their counterpart agencies in other

countries, such as the European Space Agency (ESA) and the

Japanese Space Development Agency (NASDA) to coordinate

planning and implementation of new satellite remote-sensing systems.

These agencies interact directly with one another regularly and as a

group in CEOS.

NASA also partners on a bilateral basis with its counterpart agencies

in other countries in algorithm development [e.g., with Canada,

Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)], instrument

development [e.g., with the United Kingdom on the HighResolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HRDLS) and Brazil on the

Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB)], and mission implementation

(e.g., with Japan on the TRMM project and instrumentation for the

AQUA spacecraft).The United States and Japan are now actively

discussing the possibility of leading a multi-national Global

Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in the future. Similarly,

the United States and France have jointly provided for two satellites

measuring ocean surface height (TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992, Jason-1

in 2002), and are actively exploring further investments in this area

as part of a strategy to transition these research measurements to

operations.

166

Figure 15-5: The January 2002 launch of the Japanese riser drill

ship Chikyu (Earth) in Kobe, Japan. This vessel and a U.S.-

provided non-riser drill ship will be the primary global scientific

ocean drilling platforms for the new Integrated Ocean Drilling

Program. IODP will address many fundamental and societally

important questions in Earth and ocean science including improving

our understanding of past climate and climate change.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation

Climate change science depends critically on the full and open

exchange of scientific observations and data both within and across

national borders. It is essential that scientists have the widest possible

access to scientific data in order to conduct effective research and to

develop reliable climate forecasts. Scientists involved in both research

and forecasting must also be able to make the data that they use

available for others to test, to replicate their research results and

forecasts, and to indicate lines for future research and forecasting.

Furthermore, these data must also be made available in a timely and

useful manner to policymakers and decisionmakers in order to assist

in efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.

As a leader in and major supporter of climate change research, the

United States has the opportunity to influence the rest of the world

on issues pertaining to data management and thus to continue to

advocate the full and open exchange of scientific data across

international boundaries. It is also important to develop and

promote wide application of common methodologies and protocols

in order that collected data are of high quality, comparable, and

easily accessible, especially through an effective international network

of data archival and exchange systems.

A number of international efforts to manage and exchange data

have been underway for many years.The World Data Center System

(WDCS), established by the International Council of Scientific

Unions (ICSU), has successfully collected, maintained, archived,

and distributed scientific data, including climate change data. Since

it was founded,WDCS has expanded into a number of worldwide

independent sites.The Data and Information System (DIS) is the

data management portion of IHDP and links social science data to

scientists and institutions researching climate change.

CCSP expects to continue to interact closely with data management

and dissemination efforts such as NASA’s Global Change Master

Directory (GCMD) and the International Directory Network

(IDN). GCMD is the set of data and information systems from

individual agencies that support climate change science and serves

as the U.S. coordinating node of CEOS.The GCMD system utilizes

a standard format, known as the Directory Interchange Format

(DIF), that provides a simple user interface allowing access to over

1,800 data sets. Using the DIF system, CEOS developed IDN, which

allows worldwide access to data and information about climate

change.The Global Observation Information Network (GOIN)

project is an example of U.S.-Japan bilateral cooperation in Earth

observation information networks including satellite and in situ data.

All of these programs are examples of the ideals of data sharing the

United States continues to work toward internationally.

CCSP and the major international research programs have recognized

that to address the myriad of issues associated with understanding

and responding to global change will require a truly global research

effort.They have and will continue to provide resources in order to

build scientific capacity in developing countries and thus to improve

the ability of developing countries to undertake global change

research and to benefit more fully from the results of such research.

CCSP therefore supports a number of efforts to build scientific

capacity in the developing world.

A key component of this effort is the System for Analysis, Research,

and Training (START) that is sponsored jointly by IGBP,WCRP,

IHDP, and Diversitas. Its mission is to build capacity in developing

countries in order that they can conduct research on global change

and be better prepared to understand and thus mitigate the potential

impacts those changes may have for human health, agriculture,

natural resources, water, and food security.

The START program is hosted by the United States, and supported

in large part by CCSP, while also receiving direct support from

USAID and EPA. START is undertaking capacity building on a

regional basis in Africa, Southeast Asia, temperate East Asia, the

Mediterranean, and Oceania.The START program also sponsors

fellowships and training workshops, and is currently developing a

young global scientists’ network that will link young scientists in the

developing world with their peers in the United States.

Another example of a science project with a strong capacity-building

component is the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in

Amazonia. LBA is designed to promote understanding of the effects

of climate, land-use change, ecology, and biogeochemical and

hydrological cycling in Amazonia. In the LBA campaign, capacitybuilding issues are addressed by requiring the involvement of

Brazilian scientists and students, and has become a critical criterion

in the selection of participants for the program.

Established in 1991, the Global Environment Facility funds

environmental projects in developing countries. Climate change

projects constitute approximately 40% of GEF’s activities—its

largest single focus.The United States has pledged $500 million over

the next 4 years for GEF, a 16% increase that leveraged $2.2 billion

and helped bring about the largest funding commitment in GEF’s

history. A significant portion of this funding is to help build capacity

by supporting the transfer of advanced energy and sequestration

technologies to the developing world.The Administration has also

pledged to pay U.S. arrears that had built up over the course of the

previous replenishment period.

The United States also supports two regional efforts that grew out

of the “White House Conference on Scientific and Economic

Research Related to Global Change” hosted by President George

Bush in 1990: the Inter-American Institute for Global Change

Research, and the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Environmental

Change Research (APN).The United States is the primary supporter

of IAI, and has joined with Japan in supporting APN. A goal of both

IAI and APN is to increase participation of developing countries in

global climate change research and to strengthen links between the

science community and policymakers. Both institutions, independently

and in collaboration with organizations like START, have strong

capacity-building programs.The United States seeks to complement

support of IAI and APN regions by advancing regional cooperation

in Africa.These efforts will not only contribute to improving the

167

Data Management

Capacity Building
Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

capabilities of African countries to conduct climate change science,

but in the long term also will result in improved databases for this

data-sparse region that, in turn, can improve models of climate

change around the world.

The overall framework for international cooperation in global

change research and observations has been responsive to the needs

of U.S. global change science. However, this framework should be

broadened and strengthened to keep pace with the evolving needs

of this science with respect to both research and observations.

To expand cooperation internationally, the President has announced

that the United States intends to:

• Commit $25 million to support the implementation of climate

observation and response systems in developing countries

• Expand funding of GEF

• Support the transfer of advanced energy and sequestration

technologies to developing countries in order to limit their

greenhouse gas emissions growth 

• Expand cooperation in climate change research and technology

with a number of key countries and regional organizations

• Work with IAI and other institutions to better understand

regional aspects of climate change.

CCSP also will:

• Continue to support and advance regional cooperation in Africa,

possibly through a workshop that could lead to improved and

expanded hemisphere-scale regional cooperation in global

change research in Africa

• Expand international cooperation by continuing to support

bilateral discussions in climate change science and technology 

• Support further development and expansion of global observing

systems through IGOS-P and three of its partners—GCOS,

GOOS, and GTOS—and the Argo program for ocean

observations, through further multilateral and bilateral cooperative

efforts analogous to those already initiated

• Expand cooperation in biodiversity research, especially through

the Diversitas program 

• Enhance efforts to bring science and technology to bear on

increasingly complex problems of natural resource development

(e.g., the application of climate information for improved

adaptation and disaster preparedness)

• Work with the international global change research programs—

WCRP, IGBP, IHDP, and Diversitas—to promote effective

transition of a number of their present focused programs to

cross-cutting programs (such as the new programs on water,

carbon, and global change and food security) that are intended

to relate global change research more directly to major societal

and economic factors

• Continue to work with and be supportive of international

assessments such as those of IPCC.

168

Lead Authors

Louis B. Brown, NSF

Toral Patel-Weynand, DOS

Jim Buizer, NOAA

David Allen, CCSPO

Contributors

Christo Artusio, DOS

Ko Barrett, USAID

Garik Gutman, NASA

Michael Hales, NOAA

Jack Kaye, NASA

Kate Maliga, NASA

Linda Moodie, NOAA

Duane Muller, USAID

Carrie Stokes, USAID

Lisa F.Vaughan, NOAA

CHAPTER 15 AUTHORS

U.S. Plans and Objectives for Future

International Cooperation
Several circumstances define the unique management

environment of the Climate Change Science Program

(CCSP). Fundamentally, CCSP integrates federal research

on global change and climate change, as sponsored by 13

federal departments and agencies (the Departments of

Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Energy, Health and

Human Services, the Interior, State, and Transportation;

together with the Environmental Protection Agency, the

National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the

National Science Foundation, the Agency for International

Development, and the Smithsonian Institution).The Office

of Science and Technology Policy, the Council on

Environmental Quality, the National Economic Council , and

the Office of Management and Budget provide oversight.

Planning and implementation must be coordinated across

the participating departments and agencies because the

capabilities required for comprehensive scientific inquiries

and synthesis extend beyond the mission, resources, and

expertise of any single agency (see Box 16-1 for the roles

and responsibilities of CCSP’s participating agencies).

As a federal program, CCSP is implemented within the

context of the federal budget cycle. Budget requests are

coordinated through interagency research working groups and other

mechanisms, but ultimate budget accountability resides with the

participating agencies and departments. As a result of its interagency

composition, activities in the CCSP budget are funded by the U.S.

Congress through six separate Appropriations bills.There is also

oversight provided by a number of Authorization committees, making

the relationship between CCSP budgeting and the appropriations

process complex.

CCSP partners closely with the independent national and international

research community, which has partitioned research on the Earth

system and climate change into discrete and manageable research

issues and questions. CCSP has developed management mechanisms

to ensure that data and information needs are coordinated across

disciplines and research areas so that synthesis and model development

can proceed as rapidly as scientific advances allow. In addition,

CCSP must manage its research portfolio to facilitate discoverydriven investigation on a broad range of global change issues while

also providing sufficient focus to achieve its climate objectives.

Under the President’s direction, CCSP is placing increasing emphasis

on realizing returns on society’s investment in scientific discovery

by developing resources that apply this information in support of

climate change policymaking and adaptive management/planning.

This requires the program to improve interactions between

researchers and users of scientific information, and aid in the transfer

of capabilities from research and development to operational services.

CHAPTER

169

CHAPTER CONTENTS

Background

Program Criteria

The Climate Change Science Program

Management Strategy

• Executive Direction by the Cabinet-Based

Management Structure

• Program Implementation by CCSPParticipating Agencies

• Coordinated Planning and Program

Implementation through Interagency Working

Groups

• External Interactions for Guidance, Evaluation,

and Feedback

• Coordination and Management Support by an

Interagency Office

Program Management and Review 16

Background
Chapter 16. Program Management and Review Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

170

Department of Agriculture (USDA)

USDA-sponsored research supports

long-term studies to improve our

understanding of the roles that terrestrial

systems play in influencing climate

change, and the potential effects of

global change (including water balance,

atmospheric deposition, vegetative quality,

and ultraviolet-B radiation) on food, fiber,

and forestry production in agricultural,

forest, and range ecosystems. USDA’s

research program is strengthening

efforts to determine the significance of

terrestrial systems in the global carbon

cycle, and to identify agricultural and

forestry activities that can contribute to

a reduction in greenhouse gas

concentrations. USDA’s research agencies

will support the Department in

responding to the President’s directive to

develop accounting rules and guidelines

for carbon sequestration projects.

Contributions from USDA’s research

program include the development of

improved emission and sequestration

coefficients, new tools for accurately

measuring carbon and other greenhouse

gases, and the development of improved

sequestration methodologies.

Department of Commerce (DOC)

DOC’s National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administation (NOAA)

mission is: “To understand and predict

changes in the Earth’s environment and

conserve and manage coastal and marine

resources to meet the nation’s economic,

social, and environmental needs.”The

long-term global change efforts of NOAA

are designed to develop a predictive

understanding of variability and change

in the global climate system, and to

advance the application of this information

in climate-sensitive sectors through a

suite of process research, observations

and modeling, and application and

assessment activities. Specifically,

NOAA’s research program includes

ongoing efforts in operational in situ and

satellite observations with an emphasis

on oceanic and atmospheric dynamics,

circulation, and chemistry; understanding

and predicting ocean-land-atmosphere

interactions, the global water cycle, and

the role of global transfers of carbon

dioxide among the atmosphere, ocean,

and terrestrial biosphere in climate

change; improvements in climate

modeling, prediction, and information

management capabilities; the projection

and assessment of variability across

multiple time scales; the study of the

relationship between the natural climate

system and society and the development

of methodologies for applying climate

information to problems of social and

economic consequences; and archiving,

managing, and disseminating data and

information useful for global change

research. DOC’s National Institute of

Standards and Technology (NIST)

provides measurements and standards

that support accurate and reliable

climate observations. NIST also performs

calibrations and special tests of a wide

range of instruments and measurement

techniques for accurate measurements.

NIST provides a wide array of data and

modeling tools that provide key support

to developers and users of complex

climate prediction models.

Department of Defense (DOD)

DOD does not support dedicated global

change research, but continues a history

of participation in CCSP through

sponsored research that concurrently

satisfies national security requirements

and stated CCSP goals. All data and

research results are routinely made

available to the civil science community.

DOD science and technology investments

are coordinated and reviewed through

the Defense Reliance process and

published annually in the Defense

Science and Technology Strategy, the

Basic Research Plan, the Defense

Technology Area Research Plan, and the

Joint Warfighting Science and

Technology Plan.

Department of Energy (DOE)

Research supported by DOE’s Office of

Biological and Environmental Research

(BER) is focused on the effects of energy

production and use on the global Earth

system, primarily through studies of

climate response. Research includes

climate modeling, aerosol and cloud

properties and processes affecting the

Earth’s radiation balance, and sources

and sinks of energy-related greenhouse

gases (primarily carbon dioxide). It also

includes research on the consequences

of climatic and atmospheric changes for

ecological systems and resources, the

development of improved methods and

models for conducting integrated

economic and environmental assessments

of climate change and of options for

mitigating climate change, and education

and training of scientists for climate

change research.

Department of Health

and Human Services (HHS)

Four National Institutes of Health (NIH)

institutes support research on the health

effects of ultraviolet (UV) and near-UV

radiation.Their principal objectives

include an increased understanding of

the effects of UV and near-UV radiation

exposure on target organs (e.g., eyes,

skin, immune system) and of the

molecular changes that lead to these

effects, and the development of

strategies to prevent the initiation or

promotion of disease before it is clinically

defined. In addition, the National

Institute of Environmental Health

Sciences (NIEHS) supports research on

the health effects of chlorofluorocarbon

replacement chemicals, including studies

on the metabolism and toxicity of

hydrofluorocarbons and halogenated

hydrocarbons. HHS (NIH and the

Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention) also conducts research

related to other impacts of global

change on human health, including

renewed concern about infectious

diseases whose incidence could be

affected by environmental change. In

addition, NIH sponsors a program to

assess the impact of population

change on the physical environment

and to account for effects of the

physical environment on population

change.

PRINCIPAL AREAS OF FOCUS FOR THE CCSP AGENCIES

BOX 16-1
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 16. Program Management and Review

171

Department of the Interior (DOI)

Research at DOI’s U.S. Geological

Survey (USGS) contributes directly to

the CCSP’s intellectual framework of a

whole-system understanding of global

change (i.e., the interrelationships

among climate, ecological systems, and

human behavior). USGS examines

terrestrial and marine processes and the

natural history of global change,

including the interactions between

climate and the hydrologic system.

Studies seek to understand the character

of past and present environments and

the geological, biological, hydrological,

and geochemical processes involved in

environmental change. USGS supports a

broad area of global change research,

with a focus on understanding the

sensitivity of natural systems and impacts

of climate change and variability,

surficial processes, and other global

change phenomena on the nation’s lands

and environments at the regional scale.

Specific goals of the program are to

improve the utility of global change

research results to land management

agencies; to emphasize monitoring the

landscape and developing technical

approaches to identifying and analyzing

changes that will take advantage of a

burgeoning archive of remotely sensed

and in situ data; and to emphasize the

response of biogeographic regions and

features, particularly montane, coastal,

and inland wetland ecosystems.

Department of State (DOS)

Through DOS annual funding, the

United States is the world’s leading

financial contributor to the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate

Change and to the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a

major organization for the assessment of

scientific, technical, and socioeconomic

information relevant to the understanding

of climate change, its potential impacts,

and options for adaptation and mitigation.

Recent DOS contributions to the IPCC

provide substantial support for the

Global Climate Observing System,

among other activities.

Department of

Transportation (DOT)

DOT utilizes existing science to

improve decisionmaking tools in three

primary areas: (1) impact of climate

variability and change on transportation

(research to examine the effects that

climate change and variability may have

on transportation infrastructure and

services, and to identify potential

adaptation strategies for use by

transportation decisionmakers, operators,

state and local planners, and infrastructure

builders); (2) increasing energy efficiency

and reducing greenhouse gases (research

on reducing energy use will cover

mitigation of transportation’s

environmental impacts both through

conservation and through the application

of new technology); and (3) modeling

(research to develop and improve

analytical tools for transportation energy

use to support decisionmaking throughout

government and in the private sector).

Agency for International

Development (USAID)

USAID provides decisionmakers with

the information to effectively respond

to drought and food insecurity through

the Famine Early Warning System

Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET

analyzes remote-sensing data and

ground-based meteorological, crop, and

rangeland observations to track progress

of rainy seasons in semi-arid regions of

Africa in order to identify early

indications of potential famine.

Environmental Protection

Agency (EPA)

EPA’s Global Change Research Program

is an assessment-oriented program with

primary emphasis on understanding the

potential consequences of climate

variability and change on human health,

ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems

in the United States.This entails: (1)

improving the scientific basis for

evaluating effects of global change on air

quality, water quality, ecosystems, and

human health in the context of other

stressors and in light of human dimensions

(as humans are catalysts of and respond

to global change); (2) conducting

assessments of the risks and opportunities

presented by global change; and (3)

assessing adaptation options to increase

resiliency to change and improve society’s

ability to effectively respond to the risks

and opportunities presented by global

change. EPA’s program emphasizes the

integration of the concepts, methods,

and results of the physical, biological,

and social sciences into decision support

frameworks.

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration (NASA)

The mission of NASA’s Earth Science

Enterprise is to understand and protect

our home planet by using our view from

space to study the Earth system and

improve prediction of Earth system

change. NASA programs are aimed at

understanding the Earth system and

applying Earth system science to

improve prediction of climate, weather,

and natural hazards in partnership with

other federal agencies and international

space and research programs. Its

Research Strategy orchestrates observing

and modeling programs to address these

essential questions:

• How is the Earth changing, and what

are the consequences for life on

Earth?

• How is the global Earth system

changing?

• What are the primary causes of

change in the Earth system?

• How does the Earth system respond

to natural and human-induced

change?

• What are the consequences of

change in the Earth system for

human civilization?

• How well can we predict future

changes in the Earth system?

NASA’s portfolio includes observations,

research, analysis, modeling, and

advanced technology development, in

order to answer select science questions,

and benchmarking decision support

resources to ensure society receives the

benefits of this research.

PRINCIPAL AREAS OF FOCUS FOR THE CCSP AGENCIES

BOX 16-1 (CONTINUED)
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Mission agencies that can benefit from observations, methods, and

information developed through CCSP need to have ready access to

these resources (see Chapter 11).

After more than a decade of experience, the U.S. Global Change

Research Program (USGCRP) provides the foundation for managing

an interagency research program on complex climate and global

change issues.The new cabinet-level management structure instituted

by President Bush in 2002 helps to focus efforts addressing the

challenges of improving science-based information to manage the

risks and opportunities of variability and change in climate and

related systems during the coming decade. Among the new

management techniques to be employed are approaches for addressing

gaps in research and integration capacity that do not fit easily into

the activities of any particular agency. In addition, the program

coordinates with the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)

to address issues at the intersection of science and technology, such as

evaluating approaches to sequestration, monitoring of anthropogenic

greenhouse gas emissions, and energy technology development and

market penetration scenarios.

CCSP uses a problem-driven rather than a disciplinary approach in

setting priorities and sequencing investments, identifying for early

action and support those projects and activities that meet the

following agreed-upon criteria:

• Scientific or technical quality.The proposed work must be

scientifically rigorous as determined by peer review.

Implementation plans will include periodic review by external

advisory groups (both researchers and users).

• Relevance to reducing uncertainties and improving decision support tools

in priority areas. Programs must substantially address one or

more of the CCSP goals. Programs must respond to needs for

scientific information and enhance informed discussion by all

relevant stakeholders.

• Track record of consistently good past performance and identified metrics

for evaluating future progress. Programs addressing priorities with

good track records of past performance will be favored for

continued investment to the extent that time tables and metrics

for evaluating future progress are provided. Proposed programs

that identify clear milestones for periodic assessment and

documentation of progress will be favorably considered for new

investment.

• Cost and value. Research should address Climate Change

Research Initiative (CCRI)/USGCRP goals in a cost-effective

way. Research should also be coordinated with and leverage

other national and international efforts. Programs that provide

value-added products to improve decision support resources

will be favored.

Management of CCSP involves five mechanisms:

• Executive direction by the cabinet-based management

structure, including priority setting, management review, and

accountability

• Program implementation by CCSP-participating agencies

172

National Science Foundation (NSF)

NSF programs address global change issues through

investments in challenging ideas, creative people, and

effective tools. In particular, NSF global change research

programs support research and related activities to

advance the fundamental understanding of physical,

chemical, biological, and human systems and the

interactions among them.The programs encourage

interdisciplinary activities and focus particularly on Earth

system processes and the consequences of change. NSF

programs facilitate data acquisition and information

management activities necessary for fundamental

research on global change, and promote the enhancement

of models designed to improve understanding of Earth

system processes and interactions and to develop

advanced analytic methods to facilitate basic research.

NSF also supports fundamental research on the general

processes used by organizations to identify and evaluate

policies for mitigation, adaptation, and other responses

to the challenge of varying environmental conditions.

Smithsonian Institution

Within the Smithsonian Institution, global change

research is conducted at the Smithsonian Astrophysical

Observatory, the National Air and Space Museum, the

Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, the

National Museum of Natural History, the Smithsonian

Tropical Research Institute, and the National Zoological

Park. Research is organized around themes of atmospheric

processes, ecosystem dynamics, observing natural and

anthropogenic environmental change on daily to decadal

time scales, and defining longer term climate proxies

present in the historical artifacts and records of the

museums as well as in the geologic record at field sites.

The Smithsonian Institution program strives to improve

knowledge of the natural processes involved in global

climate change, provide a long-term repository of

climate-relevant research materials for present and

future studies, and to bring this knowledge to various

audiences, ranging from scholarly to the lay public.The

unique contribution of the Smithsonian Institution is a

long-term perspective—for example, undertaking

investigations that may require extended study before

producing useful results and conducting observations on

sufficiently long (e.g., decadal) time scales to resolve

human-caused modification of natural variability.

PRINCIPAL AREAS OF FOCUS

FOR THE CCSP AGENCIES

BOX 16-1 (CONTINUED)

Program Criteria

The Climate Change Science Program

Management Strategy
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 16. Program Management and Review

• Coordinated planning and program implementation through

interagency working groups

• External interactions for guidance, evaluation, and feedback

• Coordination and management support from an interagency

office accountable to the CCSP interagency governing committee.

Interactions among those responsible for these five mechanisms are

critical for improving the scientific planning, the effectiveness of

interagency management, and the focus of climate and global

change research to support governmental and non-governmental

needs. CCSP will also employ guidance from the President’s

Management agenda to strengthen the implementation of this plan.

Executive Direction by the CabinetBased Management Structure

CCSP’s executive direction is provided by the cabinet-based

management structure introduced in Chapter 1 and shown in

Figure 16-1. At the highest level, this structure includes the

Executive Office of the President, with policy review provided by a

combined National Security Council (NSC), Domestic Policy

Council (DPC), and National Economic Council (NEC) panel.The

Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration

(CCCSTI), consisting of cabinet secretaries and agency heads, was

developed to provide management oversight to the federal climate

change science and technology programs.The Interagency Working

Group on Climate Change Science and Technology (IWGCCST)

reports to CCCSTI and consists of the Deputy/Under Secretaries

(or the counterparts of these positions in non-cabinet agencies and

offices).The working group provides oversight for both CCSP and

CCTP (which develops and reviews climate technology programs

within the federal government), and makes recommendations to

CCCSTI about funding and program allocations, in order to

implement a coordinated climate change science and technology

program that will better support policy development.

Membership on CCSP’s interagency governing body, which is

chaired by the CCSP Director (a Department of Commerce

173

*Chair and Vice Chair of Committee and Working Group rotate annually.

DOS, DOE, USAID,

and Other Agencies

International Activities

(including Task Force

on International Energy Cooperation)

Climate Change Policy and Program Review

by NSC, DPC, NEC

Office of the President

Chair: Secretary of Energy* Vice Chair: Secretary of Commerce*

Executive Director: OSTP Director

Secretary of State

Secretary of Agriculture

EPA Administrator

OMB Director

NEC Director

NASA Administrator

Secretary of the Interior

Secretary of HHS

Secretary of Transportation

Secretary of Defense

CEQ Chairman

NSF Director

Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration

Chair: Deputy/Under Secretary of Commerce*

Vice Chair: Deputy/Under Secretary of Energy*

Executive Secretary: OSTP Associate Director for Science

Members DS/US Level:

CEQ, DOD, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA,

HHS, NASA, NEC, NSF, OMB, USDA

Interagency Working Group on

Climate Change Science and Technology

Director: Assistant Secretary of Commerce

for Oceans and Atmosphere

Members:

DOC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, HHS,

NASA, NSF, OMB, OSTP, Smithsonian, USAID, USDA

Climate Change Science Program

Director: Senior-Level Appointee,

U.S. Department of Energy

Members:

DOC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, HHS,

NASA, NSF, OMB, OSTP, USAID, USDA

Climate Change Technology Program

Figure 16-1:

The Climate

Change Science

and Technology

Programs are

overseen by a

cabinet-level

management

structure of

the U.S.

government.
Chapter 16. Program Management and Review Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

appointee), is joint with the Subcommittee on Global Change

Research (SGCR), the interagency committee that coordinates

USGCRP. Its membership includes representatives from agencies

that have mission responsibilities and/or funding in climate and

global change research. USGCRP and CCRI are integrated within

CCSP and responsibility for compliance with the requirements of

the Global Change Research Act of 1990—including its provisions

for annual reporting of finding and short-term plans, scientific

reviews by the National Academy of Sciences/National Research

Council, and periodic publication of a strategic plan for the

program—rests with the CCSP’s interagency governing body.

The CCSP interagency governing body provides overall management

direction and is responsible for ensuring the development and

implementation of an integrated interagency program. It oversees

and directs all aspects of the program, including setting top-level

goals for the program and determining what products will be

developed and produced to meet those goals.

Agency representatives on the CCSP’s interagency committee

coordinate development of an integrated, interagency budget as a

component of the President’s annual budget request to Congress.

They conduct periodic inventories and reviews of agency or

departmental programs within the CCSP budget cross-cut (e.g., for

the FY03 inventory, see <www.climatescience.gov>) and, in

cooperation with IWGCCST and OMB, determine which agency

programs are considered part of the CCSP budget cross-cut.They

ensure that agency/departmental climate and global change

research programs are prioritized and aligned with CCSP’s

interagency goals.

CCSP’s governing committee ensures periodic program reviews and

evaluations involving both the CCSP agencies and external partners,

including the scientific research community and users of global

change information. It also conducts periodic reviews of progress

toward interagency objectives in order to evaluate the performance

and effectiveness of the allocated budget.

The CCSP interagency governing body is responsible for ensuring

the availability of scientific inputs needed to achieve the program’s

mission. It will develop and oversee mechanisms that support crucial

research that is not central to the core missions of the participating

agencies and that is most effectively and efficiently carried out in an

interagency setting.

Finally, the CCSP interagency governing committee is responsible

for coordinating activities with CCTP and other related programs;

several members serve in leadership roles in coordinating committees

for both CCSP and CCTP.

Program Implementation

by CCSP-Participating Agencies

The goals and objectives of CCSP and the plans designed by the

interagency working groups are carried out by the participating

agencies, either individually or collaboratively. Each agency has its

respective mission, capabilities, and budget authorizations, on the

basis of which it commits to conduct research, make observations,

run models, and generate products contributing to CCSP objectives.

Agency managers serve as chairs and members of the CCSP

interagency working groups, facilitating the alignment of agency

plans and CCSP implementing strategies. Agency managers pursue

collaborative agreements with other CCSP agencies and other

organizations as required to generate the products they commit to

in the CCSP context.

Coordinated Planning and

Implementation through

Interagency Working Groups

At the implementation level, CCSP draws on the strengths of many

agencies and departments. It requires a significant degree of

coordination to ensure that the individual agency research conducted

under the umbrella of CCSP supports program scientific objectives

and that developments are effectively and efficiently synthesized and

transferred into operational and sustained societal benefits.

Interagency Working Groups (IWGs) of program managers who

have budget authority within their agencies to implement programs

will oversee development of integrated science and implementation

plans for each of the CCSP IWGs.5 IWGs will commission preparation

of science plans (see next section on external interactions) to provide

overall guidance for the research, observations, and modeling

needed to achieve program goals. IWGs will themselves prepare

implementation plans for the research program elements, which

will provide performance objectives.The implementation plans will

describe the priority scientific programs necessary to meet goals,

the roles of the participating agencies, and joint agency initiatives,

where needed.The plans will also provide generalized timelines and

budget estimates for the investments necessary to carry out the

activities, noting any critical dependencies.The implementation

plans will also include priorities for the observations and/or

observing systems necessary to meet the goals of the research as

well as critical modeling efforts and/or information management

issues.These priorities will inform the choices that will need to be

made by agencies and by CCSP as a whole.

Appropriate CCTP working groups will coordinate with CCSP

through membership on the relevant CCSP interagency working

group [e.g., CCTP Measurement, Monitoring, and Verification

(MMV) Working Group members on CCSP Observations and

Monitoring Working Group, CCTP Scenarios and Modeling Task

Force member on CCSP Modeling and Decision Support groups,

CCTP Sequestration group member on CCSP Carbon Cycle

Working Group] and vice versa. In addition, the CCTP Scenarios

and Modeling Task Force and the MMV and sequestration working

groups will meet jointly on occasion with the CCSP Decision

Support, Observations and Monitoring, and Carbon Cycle groups,

respectively, to review program directions and potential joint

initiatives.

174

5 Currently, CCSP has research-oriented interagency working groups

focusing on Atmospheric Composition, Climate Variability and Change,

Global Water Cycle, Land-Use/Land-Cover Change, Global Carbon

Cycle, Ecosystems, Human Contributions and Responses to

Environmental Change, Decision Support, Modeling, Observations and

Monitoring, International, and Data Management.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Chapter 16. Program Management and Review

External Interactions for Guidance,

Evaluation, and Feedback

The science community brings essential expertise to CCSP activities.

CCSP recognizes the need to develop and utilize a variety of

processes and mechanisms to provide an open and transparent

process, program evaluation, and feedback. Scientific input will be

sought from individuals from universities, federal research agencies,

non-governmental organizations, and industry.

Relevant committees and boards of the National Academy of

Sciences and the National Research Council (NRC) will continue to

be asked to provide scientific guidance as appropriate. Since the

establishment of USGCRP, NRC has provided a wealth of valued

advice to USGCRP, leading to such documents as Global

Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC,

1999a), Our Common Journey (NRC, 1999c), The Science of Regional

and Global Change: Putting Knowledge to Work (NRC, 2001e), and

Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key Questions (NRC, 2001a).

Most recently, NRC has engaged in the review of the development

of this strategic plan by participating in the CCSP Workshop in

December 2002, and providing a review of the CCSP draft strategic

plan.The NRC will provide an overall review of the CCSP Strategic

Plan and its development process after the plan is published.

CCSP has considered the NRC recommendation that a permanent

external advisory group be created to oversee CCSP performance.

After careful review, CCSP believes that essential program oversight

is better provided by the use of a number of external advisory

mechanisms, including periodic overall program reviews by NRC or

other groups, rather than a single body. Additional mechanisms to

seek external scientific input—such as workshops, steering

committees, ad hoc working groups, and review boards—will be

employed as needed. CCSP will continue to consider creation of a

permanent overall advisory group as program implementation

proceeds.

The research community, in cooperation with users, will develop

science plans for each research element of the program.These plans

will describe in greater detail than is possible in this Strategic Plan

the research that is required to address the questions in the research

program elements. An example of a detailed science plan is the U.S.

Carbon Cycle Science Plan (CCWG, 1999).This science plan was

requested by several agencies participating in USGCRP and was

developed by a Carbon and Climate Working Group that drew on

the expertise of the U.S. carbon cycle science community through

workshops. Scientific plans have been developed or are being

developed for the other CCSP research program elements as well

to guide research efforts.

Coordination on an ad hoc basis across advisory bodies of the

participating agencies involved in CCSP and related programs, such

as CCTP, will be encouraged by the CCSP’s interagency governing

body.This will help ensure that the respective advisory bodies of

participating CCSP agencies are aware of the roles and responsibilities

of each of the other agencies in the program. It will also enable the

interagency governing body for CCSP to consult with an independent

group of individuals who also serve as members of scientific advisory

committees for the individual CCSP agencies.

Coordination and Management

Support by an Interagency Office

The agencies participating in CCSP fund and supervise an interagency

office—the Climate Change Science Program Office (CCSPO)—

which fosters program development and coordination by

supporting:

• Research coordination and integration

• Development, coordination, and integration of decision support

resources 

• Integration of agency activities in the areas of observing,

monitoring, and data management 

• Development and implementation of an interagency

communications plan

• Secretariat support for the CCSP Director, the interagency

governing body of CCSP, and related bodies.

Research Coordination and Integration. CCSPO staff will support

interagency working groups responsible for coordinating major

CCSP program elements. Specific responsibilities will include (1)

helping to develop scientific strategies and implementation plans;

(2) assisting in the coordination of element-specific planning and

implementation; (3) assisting in supporting and managing interactions

with scientific advisory groups; (4) assisting in development of

program milestones/deliverables and approaches for monitoring

progress toward objectives; and (5) providing general support

including coordinating meetings, acting as a central point of contact,

and responding to queries. In addition, CCSPO staff will take

responsibility for helping to achieve better integration across the major

research elements. Strides have been made in science coordination

and integration in recent years in several areas of CCSP/USGCRP,

including climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, and the

water cycle.

Development, coordination, and integration of decision support resources.

CCSPO staff will support the CCSP agencies/departments and

interagency groups responsible for oversight and implementation of

CCSP decision support activities. This will foster evaluation of

differing approaches to decision support analyses. CCSP focuses on

solutions that integrate climate change research results into decision

support resources based on national and international priorities. CCSP

coordinates agency activities employing peer-review solicitations to

identify best-in-class decision support solutions. Interagency working

groups benchmark the performance of decision support solutions

associated with specific local, regional, national, and international

areas of emphasis. CCSPO staff will also support interagency

oversight and review processes, ensuring a feedback link between

decision support and research planning.

Integration of agency activities in the areas of observing, monitoring, and

data management. CCSPO will coordinate and facilitate the work of

the interagency CCSP Observations and Monitoring and Data

Management working groups. CCSPO staff for observing and

monitoring and data management will work with the agencies to:

(1) develop a strategy for the U.S. contributions to a global climate

observation and monitoring system; (2) coordinate an interagency

design of U.S. contributions to the global system; (3) coordinate

and ensure interagency implementation of the system (i.e., moving

from design to operations); and (4) help evaluate the development

175
Chapter 16. Program Management and Review Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

176

and performance of the system in meeting the needs of the science

and decision support communities.

Development and Implementation of an Interagency Communications Plan.

CCSPO will facilitate program reporting and communications.

CCSPO staff coordinate preparation of the annual Our Changing

Planet report to Congress and other stakeholders, as well as other

reports as requested. They are responsible for designing and

maintaining the program’s websites (including the USGCRP and

CCSP websites, and the web presence of related programs in areas

such as the carbon cycle). CCSPO will also take responsibility for

maintaining an inventory of agency communications efforts, and

working with agency CCSP representatives to develop an interagency

communications plan.

CCSPO also supports the Working Group on International Research

and Cooperation.

Secretariat Support for the CCSP Director, the Interagency Governing Body

of CCSP, and Related Bodies.Activities include:

• Providing support to the CCSP Director and program staff

• Preparing and staffing the meetings of CCSP/SGCR, including

timely distribution of needed materials, preparation of agenda,

recording decisions, and supporting follow-up actions

• Supporting the annual production of Our Changing Planet

• Preparing and compiling budgets and supporting materials for

the office and other activities supported through the distributed

cost mechanism

• Establishing and maintaining office infrastructure (computer

network and peripherals; databases; records of CCSP and

CCSPO activity)

• Coordinating U.S. government review of Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change and other assessment reports.

Lead Authors

James R. Mahoney, DOC

Richard H. Moss, CCSPO

Chester Koblinsky, NASA and CCSPO

Contributors

Ghassem Asrar, NASA

Margaret S. Leinen, NSF

James Andrews, ONR

Mary Glackin, NOAA

Charles Groat, USGS

William Hohenstein, USDA

Linda Lawson, DOT

Melinda Moore, HHS

Patrick Neale, Smithsonian Institution

Aristides Patrinos, DOE

Emmy B. Simmons, USAID

Michael Slimak, USEPA

Harlan Watson, DOS

CHAPTER 16 AUTHORS
A. Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants . . . . . . .

B. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

C. Graphics and Photography Source Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

D. Glossary of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

E. Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ANNEXES

Mark R. Abbott Oregon State University

Waleed Abdalati National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Thomas P. Ackerman Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Larry Adams U.S. Department of Agriculture

Thomas C. Adang The Aerospace Corporation

Jeremy A. Adler Canadian Embassy

Robert F. Adler NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Syun Akasofu University of Alaska Fairbanks

Saromi Adedeji Akeem Compotech Nigeria Limited

Marryl Alber University of Georgia

Steven R Albersheim Federal Aviation Administration

Bruce Alberts National Academy of Sciences

Mariann Albjerg NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Daniel L. Albritton NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory

Stephen C. Aldrich Bio Economic Research Associates

Latonya Alexander National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Arthur G. Alexiou UNESCO/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

David M. Allen Climate Change Science Program Office

Douglas R.Allen Naval Research Laboratory

Anthony D. Amato University of Maryland

Stephen D. Ambrose National Aeronautics and Space Administration

P. Foerd Ames Ocean Wave Energy Company

Jeff Amthor U.S. Department of Energy

Paul Anastas Office of Science and Technology Policy

Cort Anastasio University of California, Davis

Karen Andersen National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Stephen Andersen U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Donald E. Anderson National Aeronautics and Space Administration

James Anderson Harvard University

Lee Anderson University of Delaware

Ken Andrasko U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Jean-Claude Andre NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board

James K. Andreasen U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Jeffrey A. Andresen Great Lakes Regional Climate Change Assessment/Michigan State

University

James E. Andrews Office of Naval Research

James R. Angel Illinois State Water Survey

Richard A. Anthes University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Behrooz Arastoo Natural Resources Higher Education of Semnan

Hugo Arevalo Insituto del Mar del Perú

Richard Arimoto New Mexico State University

Phillip A. Arkin University of Maryland

Joan L.Aron Science Communication Studies

Vicki Arroyo Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Christo Artusio U.S. Department of State

Dan E. Arvizu CH2M HILL

Richard Aspinall National Science Foundation

Ghassem R. Asrar National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Cynthia Atherton Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Carol L. Auer National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Stephen J. Auer National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/OAR

Susan K. Avery University of Colorado

Roni Avissar Duke University

Peter W. Backlund National Center for Atmospheric Research

David Bader U.S. Department of Energy

Stephen Baenziger Crop Science Society of America

Mitchell T. Baer U.S. Department of Energy

William L. Baer Space Imaging

Thomas J. Baerwald National Science Foundation

Rick Bailey Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation 

Ronald Bailey Reason Magazine 

Ronald C. Baird National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/OAR

Marcia Baker University of Washington

Wayman Baker NOAA/Nat’l Centers for Environmental Prediction

Dennis Baldocchi University of California, Berkeley

Mark P. Baldwin Northwest Research Associates, Inc.

Todd W. Baldwin Island Press

Virgil C. Baldwin, Jr. USDA Forest Service

Roger C. Bales University of Arizona

Peter J. Balint George Mason University

Roberta Balstad Miller Center for Int’l Earth Science Information Network

Seema Balwani Office of Senator Daniel K. Akaka

Gil Bamford

Anjuli S. Bamzai National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Raymond J. Ban The Weather Channel

Mary Barber Ecological Society of America

Fairley J. Barnes Los Alamos National Laboratory

Christopher D. Barnet NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Tim P. Barnett Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants AANNEX

179

Thomas O. Barnwell, Jr. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Jill Baron U.S. Geological Survey

Enriqueta Barrera National Science Foundation

Jennifer H. Barrett Office of Representative Mark Udall

Ko Barrett U.S. Agency for International Development

Eric J. Barron Pennsylvania State University

Ana P. Barros Harvard University

Roger Barry University of Colorado, Boulder (CIRES)

Patrick J. Bartlein University of Oregon

Gerald S. Barton NOAA (retired)

Joseph L. Bast The Heartland Institute

John J. Bates NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information

Service

Robert Bauer NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Eric J. Bayler National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Reginald A. Beach Consortium for Oceanographic, Research and Education (CORE)

William H. Beasley University of Oklahoma

Joe M. Becerra U.S. Navy

Glynda A. Becker U.S. Department of Commerce

Markus E. Becker RWE

David Beecy U.S. Department of Energy

Carolyn C. Bell U.S. Geological Survey

Nancy Beller-Simms University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/NOAA

Deborah R. Belvedere NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Michael Bender Princeton University

Richard E. Benedick Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Timothy C. Benner U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Richard A. Benson Los Alamos National Laboratory

Kathleen A. Beres Orbital Sciences Corporation

Jonas Berg Humboldt State University

Brian Berger Space News

Wolfgang Berger Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

Belle Bergner University of Pennsylvania

Chris Bernabo National Council for Science and the Environment

James Berner Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium

Leonard S. Bernstein L. S. Bernstein & Associates, L.L.C.

Joe Berry Carnegie Institution of Washington

Uma Bhatt University of Alaska Fairbanks

Kathryn A. Bickel U.S. Department of Agriculture

Eugene W. Bierly American Geophysical Union

Robert Bindschadler National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Richard A. Birdsey USDA Forest Service

Jennifer L. Biringer World Wildlife Fund

Ronald J. Birk National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Charon M. Birkett University of Maryland College Park

Jeanne M. Bisanz Great Lakes Regional Climate Change Assessment

Suzanne S. Bishop Arctic Research Consortium of the United States

Maurice L. Blackmon National Center for Atmospheric Research

Rainer Bleck Los Alamos National Laboratory

Paul Bledsoe National Commission on Energy Policy

Jack Blevins City of Fairfax,Virginia

Janine Bloomfield Environmental Defense

Richard A. Blum Integrity in Science Project

Richard Blumenthal State of Connecticut

Tom A. Boden Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Samuel W. Bodman U.S. Department of Commerce

Bo Bodvarssi Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory

Kerry D. Bolognese National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges

George D. Bolton AgCert International, LLC

Suzanne H. Bolton National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NMFS

John Bonitz Independent Reviewer

Brian Bonlender Congressman Jay Inslee

James V. Bonta USDA/Agricultural Research Service

Paula Bontempi National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Davis B. Bookhart Consumer Energy Council of America

James E. Bossert Los Alamos National Laboratory

Lisa D. Botluk National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sara R. Bowden U.S. Global Change Research Program/International Program

Michael Bowers National Science Foundation

Dan Braden National Council for Science and the Environment

Raymond S. Bradley University of Massachusetts, Amherst

Russell Bradley PRBO Conservation Science

Raymond J. Braitsch U.S. Department of Energy

Sarah K. Brandel U.S. Department of State

Stephen B. Brandt NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

Lee E. Branscome Climatological Consulting Corporation

Marcia Branstetter Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Garrett W. Brass U.S. Arctic Research Commission

Richard C. Bratcher Electric Power Research Institute
Annex A.Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Hans G. Brauch Free University of Berlin/AFES-PRESS

Troy Bredenkamp American Farm Bureau Federation

Sean T. Brennan U.S. Geological Survey

William J. Brennan U.S. Department of Commerce

David D. Breshears Los Alamos National Laboratory

Francis P. Bretherton University of Wisconsin-Madison

Michael J. Brewer National Weather Service

Lawson W. Brigham U.S. Arctic Research Commission

Julie Brigham-Grette IGBP-PAGES

Anthony J. Broccoli NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Eduardo Brondizio Indiana University

Priscilla Brooks Conservation Law Foundation

Dail W. Brown National Marine Fisheries Service

Joel Brown New Mexico State University

Judy P. Brown Rio Tinto North American Group Companies

Louis B. Brown National Science Foundation

Sandra Brown Winrock International

W. Steven Brown National Institute of Standards and Technology

William H. Brune Pennsylvania State University

David Bttisti University of Washington

Claire L. Buchanan Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin

Katherine F. Buckley U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Shannon H. Buckley Hart Downstream Energy Services

Janice L. Buckner NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Marilyn A. Buford USDA Forest Service Research and Development

James L. Buizer NOAA Office of Global Programs

Stas Burgiel Defenders of Wildlife

Virginia R. Burkett U.S. Geological Survey

Mark A. Burnham Lewis-Burke Associates

George H. Burrows Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute

Robert C. Burruss U.S. Geological Survey

Antonio J. Busalacchi Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC)

James H. Butler NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory

Carsten Butsch German National Committee on Global Change Research

Lee Hayes Byron U.S. Climate Action Network

Daewon W. Byun University of Houston

Terry Cacek NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board/National Park

Service

Ming Cai University of Maryland

Ken Caldeira Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

John A. Calder National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Francisco J. Calderon USDA/Agricultural Research Service

William Russell Callender DOC/NOAA/OAR/Office of Scientific Support

Stephen E. Calopedis Energy Information Administration

David B. Campbell National Science Foundation

Julie K. Campbell The Campbell Marketing Group, Inc.

Penelope Canan University of Denver

Mark A. Cane Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory

Ralph D. Cantral NOAA Ocean Service

Linda A. Capuano Honeywell Inc.

Robert Card U.S. Department of Energy

Ann B. Carlson Executive Office of the President

Peter S. Carlson MHPC Corporation

R. Jared Carpenter CREA

David J. Carson World Meteorological Organization

Lynne M. Carter Environmental Consultant

Thomas B. Carter Portland Cement Association

Eileen M. Casabianca DOC/NOAA/OAR

Ben Cash Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

Michael Caughey Illinois State Water Survey

Billy D. Causey NOAA/Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Nancy Cavallaro USDA/Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service

Daniel R. Cayan Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

Richard P. Cebula Science Systems and Applications, Inc.

Christine Celata Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Kelly Chance Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory

Stanley A. Changnon Illinois State Water Survey

Elaine G. Chapman Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Thomas W. Chapman National Science Foundation

Chris Charles Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Robert J. Charlson University of Washington

Michael L. Charney Massachusetts Climate Action Network

Eric Chassignet NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board

Keya Chatterjee National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Chen-Tung A. Chen National Sun Yat-sen University

R. Douglas Chiappetta, M.A. National Alternative Fuels Association

Gary Chilefone

Anne F. Choate ICF Consulting

Elizabeth Chornesky University of California, Santa Cruz

Bob Christian East Carolina University

John R. Christy University of Alabama in Huntsville

Margaret M. L. Chu U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Pamela M. Chu National Institute of Standards and Technology

180

William P. Chu NASA Langley Research Center

Thomas Church University of Delaware

Alice T. Cialella Brookhaven National Laboratory

Noreen Clancy RAND Corporation

Candyce E. Clark National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Cathy Clark University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Martyn Clark University of Colorado

Rebecca Clark National Institutes of Health

William C. Clark Harvard University

Eileen Claussen Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Mary L. Cleave National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Pablo Clemente-Colón NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Nicholas L. Clesceri National Science Foundation and RPI

James A. Coakley Oregon State University

Stella Melugin Coakley Oregon State University

Roz E. Cohen National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Kenneth A. Colburn Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Mgmt

Alessandro Coletti TITAN Systems Corp.

Kimberly N. Collell American Soybean Association

Nancy S. Colleton Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Jackson D. Collier National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Stan Coloff U.S. Geological Survey

Rita Colwell National Science Foundation

Josefino Comiso NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Susan G. Conard USDA Forest Service

Margarita Conkright Gregg NOAA/National Oceanographic Data Center

Joseph M. Conny National Institute of Standards and Technology

Dawn M. Conway Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences

Gary A. Cook Greenpeace

Todd Phillip Cook Lakeview Terrace Sanitarium

Charli Coon The Heritage Foundation

Philip A. Cooney White House Council on Environmental Quality

James N. Cooper Earth Satellite Corporation

Ellen J. Cooter U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Rob Coppoch

Robert W. Corell American Meteorological Society and Harvard University

John G. Cormier National Institute of Standards and Technology

Peter Cornillon University of Rhode Island

Roman Michail Corobov Institute of Geography, Moldavian Academy of Sciences

Christine Corwin Bluewater Network

Ellis Cowling North Carolina State University

Paul Craig Sierra Club Global Warming and Energy Committee

Rachael G. Craig National Science Foundation

Jonah B. Crawford Stirling Energy Systems

Ted S. Cress DOE/Pacific Northwest Laboratory

David Crisp Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology

Thomas M. Cronin U.S. Geological Survey

Thomas J. Crowley Duke University

Richard M. Cruse Iowa State University

Ivan A. Csiszar University of Maryland

Bill J. Cunningham Unions for Jobs and the Environment (UJAE)

Thomas A. Curran Sippican, Inc.

William B. Curry Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Michael R. Curtis U.S. Department of Energy

Robert M. Cushman Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Ned Cyr NOAA Fisheries

Harvey D. Dahljelm ITT Industries

Roger C. Dahlman U.S. Department of Energy

H. Daily Independent Researcher

Virginia H. Dale Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Marie Chantale Damas National Science Foundation

William P. Dannevik Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

H. Lee Dantzler DOC/NOAA/NESDIS

Margaret A Davidson NOAA Ocean Service

Kert Davies Greenpeace

Anthony B. Davis Los Alamos National Laboratory

Joseph A. Davis Society of Environmental Journalists

Danny M. Day Eprda

Barbara M. De Rosa-Joynt U.S. Department of State

Gitane De Silva Canadian Embassy

Russell De Young NASA Langley

Helvecio De-Polli Embrapa Labex/ARS

Lois Dean U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Robert T. Deck University of Toledo

Cynthia J. Decker Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy

Philip L. DeCola National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Ruth DeFries University of Maryland

Victor E. Delnore NASA Langley Research Center

John J. DeLuisi National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Thomas L. Delworth NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Scott Denning Colorado State University

John G. Dennis NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board/National Park

Service
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Annex A.Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants

Lawrence M Denton The Weather Channel

Matthew S. DeRosier Northrop Grumman 

Paul V. Desanker University of Virginia

Floyd DesChamps U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

Mike Dettinger U.S. Geological Survey

Russell DeYoung NASA Langley

Atulya Dhungana Independent

Howard J. Diamond NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Hilda Diaz-Soltero U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service

Robert Dickinson Georgia Institute of Technology, American Geophysical Union

Nancy M. Dickson Harvard University

Thomas Dietz George Mason University

Lisa Dilling National Center for Atmospheric Research

John Dilustro University of Georgia 

Joseph P. DiPietro Energetics, Incorporated

Paul Dirmeyer Center for Ocean, Land and Atmosphere

Gerald J. Dittberner NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Keith W. Dixon U.S. Department of Commerce / NOAA / GFDL

Larisa E. Dobriansky U.S. Department of Energy

Richard D. Doctor Argonne National Laboratory

David J. Dokken U.S. Global Change Research Program/CCSP

Randall M. Dole NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center

Dennis C. Doll U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

J.R. M. Donald AETC Inc.

Scott Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Martin J. Donohoe Independent

John W. Doran USDA-ARS/Soil Science Society of America

Craig Dorman University of Alaska Fairbanks

Paul Doskey Argonne National Laboratory

Bruce C. Douglas Florida International University

David H. Douglass University of Rochester

Harry J. Dowsett U.S. Geological Survey

JR Drabick Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Hank Drahos NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

John B. Drake Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Robert S. Drosdzal Computer Sciences Corporation

Charles J. Drummond U.S. Department of Energy

Qingyun Duan NOAA/National Weather Service

Manvendra K. Dubey Los Alamos National Laboratory

Melissa L. Dubinsky Stone and Webster Management Consultants, Inc.

Robert Duce Texas A&M University

Claude E. Duchon University of Oklahoma

James L. Duda IPO/NPOESS

Chris Duffy Pennsylvania State University

Philip B. Duffy Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

J.C. Duh National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Robert J. Dumont National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Stephen V. Dunn U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Lisa F. Duriancik USDA/CSREES

Margaret E. Dushin University of Minnesota

Ellsworth Dutton NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory

Jon D. Dykstra Earth Satellite Corporation

C. Mark Eakin NOAA/National Climate Data Center

Richard C. Easter Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

David R. Easterling NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

William E. Easterling III The Pennsylvania State University

Cheryl Eavey National Science Foundation

Myron Ebell Competitive Enterprise Institute

Kristie L. Ebi Electric Power Research Institute

Frank Eden Eden Consulting

Susanna Eden Climate Change Science Program Office

N.Terence Edgar U.S. Geological Survey

Kodjovi Sidéra Edjame University of Lomé

James A. Edmonds Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Marta Edwards Compliance Solutions Corporation

Steven Edwards National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Kenneth Eggert Los Alamos National Laboratory

Franco Einaudi NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Bernard P. Elero Harris Corporation

Chris Elfring The National Academies

Scott M. Elliott Los Alamos National Laboratory

Ann L. Elsen Montgomery County Department of Environmental Protection

Chris Elvidge NOAA-NESDIS National Geophysical Data Center

Jerry W. Elwood U.S. Department of Energy

William R. Emanuel University of Virginia

David B. Enfield NOAA AOML

Jürgen Engelhard RWE

Jared K. Entin National Aeronautics and Space Administration

A. Christine Eppstein Environmental Council of the States

Paul R. Epstein Center for Health and the Global Environment

David J. Erickson Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Mary C. Erickson National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jaime Esper National Aeronautics and Space Administration

181

Robert Etkins National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Diane L. Evans NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory

John T. Everett UN Atlas of the Oceans

David Fahey NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory

William L. Fang Edison Electric Institute

Mike Farrell Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Sherry O. Farwell South Dakota School of Mines and Technology

Stephen P. Faulkner U.S. Geological Survey

Kevin Fay International Climate Change Partnership

Richard A. Feely National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Robert W. Fegley EPA/Research and Development

Jay S. Fein National Science Foundation

Howard J. Feldman American Petroleum Institute

John C. Felmy American Petroleum Institute

Murray Felsher Washington Remote Sensing Letter

Benjamin Felzer Marine Biological Laboratory

Ed J. Fendley U.S. Department of State

George R. Fenske Argonne National Laboratory

Ron Ferek Office of Naval Research

Frank M. Ferrell U.S. Department of Energy

Wanda R. Ferrell U.S. Department of Energy

Anton C. Ferrer Earth Scout International

Florence M. Fetterer National Snow and Ice Data Center

Christopher B. Field Carnegie Institute

Ann Fisher Pennsylvania State University

Genene M. Fisher Climate Change Science Program

Matt Fladeland National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Brian P. Flannery Exxon Mobil Corporation

Paul G. Flikkema Northern Arizona University

Ruxandra M. Floroiu The National Academies

Lawrence E. Flynn U.S. Department of Commerce/NOAA

Gary Foley U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Jonathan A. Foley Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin

Peter F. Folger American Geophysical Union

Jennifer E. Folta International City/County Management Association

Kathleen S. Fontaine NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Keith J. Forbes Fundação da Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade da Lisboa

Ned Ford Sierra Club

Michael A. Fortune Climate Science Forum

Ariele Foster SustainUS

Ian Foster NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board

Joshua G. Foster University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/NOAA

Guido F. Franco California Energy Commission

Gerald T. Fraser National Institute of Standards and Technology

Edward N. Frazier TRW

Melissa P. Free National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

J. Randall Freed ICF Consulting

Andrew C. Freedman Congressional Quarterly

Kenneth P. Freeman Caelum Research Corporation

Amy J. Freise International START Secretariat

Lars Friberg Johns Hopkins University, SAIS

Elbert (Joe) W. Friday National Academies, National Research Council

Julie Friddell U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Lawrence Friedl National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Robert M. Friedman The Heinz Center

Deborah Frisch NSG

Jeffrey B. Frithsen U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

J. Fruci United States House of Representatives

Peter C. Frumhoff Union of Concerned Scientists

Roland J. Fuchs International START Secretariat

William Fulkerson LERDWG

Inez Fung University of California, Berkeley

John Furlow U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Clifford J. Gabriel Office of Science and Technology Policy

Najwa Abbas Gadaheldam UNIDO/ Energy Efficiency Branch

Mary Gade Sonnenschein, Nath, and Rosenthal

Michael Gaffen Datum International

Jeffrey S. Gaffney Argonne National Laboratory

Peter T. Gage World Resources Institute

William B. Gail Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corporation

Gerardo V. Galamay Volunteers Movement For Green Concerns

James Galloway University of Virginia

L. Peter Galusky Marathon Ashland Petroleum LLC

Janet L. Gamble U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Susan M. Gander U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Mary M. Gant NIH/National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

Yuan Gao Princeton University

Jurgen D. Garbrecht U.S. Department of Agriculture

Hernan E. Garcia National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Martha N. Garcia U.S. Geological Survey

Edward P. Gardiner American Museum of Natural History

David K. Garman U.S. Department of Energy

Charles T. Garten, Jr. Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Annex A.Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Silvia L. Garzoli National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Lawrence W. Gates Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Lydia Dumenil Gates Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Stephen D. Gawtry University of Virginia

Gerald L. Geernaert Los Alamos National Laboratory

Charlette A. Geffen Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Robert P. Gehri Southern Company

Melvyn E. Gelman National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Bruce M. Gentry National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Dylan George National Science Foundation

Paul J. Georgia Competitive Enterprise Institute

Janette C. Gervin NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Steven Ghan Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Anver Ghazi European Commission

Michael Ghil University of California, Los Angeles

Henry Gholz National Science Foundation/Division of Environmental Biology

Anne Giblin Marine Biological Laboratory

Lewis E. Gilbert Columbia University

Ron S. Gird NOAA National Weather Service

Anatoly A. Gitelson University of Nebraska Lincoln

Mary M. Glackin NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Karl M. Glasener Soil Science Society of America

James F. Gleason National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Peter Gleick Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security

Patricia Glick National Wildlife Federation

Anand Gnanadesikan NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

David S. Godwin U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Jeff Goebel U.S. Department of Agriculture

Scott J. Goetz University of Maryland

Roberto Goidanich Brazilian Embassy in Washington

Alan M. Goldberg The MITRE Corp.

Donald M. Goldberg Center for International Environmental Law

Mitchell D. Goldberg NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Stephen M. Goldberg Argonne National Laboratory

Edward S. Goldstein National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Rachel Goldstein George Washington University Graduate Program

David J. Goldston United States House of Representatives

Janet R. Gomon Smithsonian Institution

Patrick Gonzalez U.S. Geological Survey

Margaret G. Goodbody District of Columbia Public Library

David C. Goodrich USDA/Agricultural Research Service

David M. Goodrich NOAA Climate Office

Steven M. Goralczyk TRW

William D. Goran U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Thomas E. Graedel Yale University

Thomas J. Grahame U.S. Department of Energy 

Anne E. Grambsch U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Mads Greauer Resources for the Future

Kenneth Green Fraser Institute

Richard S. Greenfield American Meteorological Society

Suzie E. Greenhalgh World Resources Institute

Greg Greenwood California Resources Agency

Gregory B. Greenwood Resources Agency of California

Robert A. Griffin University of Alabama

Vanessa L. Griffin NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Roger B. Griffis National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

David J. Griggs Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Stanley H Grigsby Virginia Tech

William F. Griswold University of Georgia

Charles Groat U.S. Geological Survey

Robert Grossman NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA)

Wolf D. Grossmann Center for Environmental Research

Arnold Gruber NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Hermann Gucinski USDA Forest Service

Scott B. Gudes National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Franklin R. Guenther National Institute of Standards and Technology

Manoj K. Guha American Electric Power

Anthony R. Guillory National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Mohan Gupta NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Guy G. Guthridge National Science Foundation

Garik Gutman National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Shahid Habib NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

James Hack National Center for Atmospheric Research

Peter Hacker University of Hawaii

Charles S. Hakkarinen Consultant

Ida M. Hakkarinen NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Sirpa M.A. Hakkinen NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Robert C. Hale University of Oklahoma

Michael B. Hales NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Dorothy K. Hall NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Forrest G. Hall University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Colin K. Haller International City/County Management Association (ICMA)

Richard E. Hallgren American Meteorological Society

182

David Halpern Office of Science and Technology Policy

Kevin Hamilton University of Hawaii

Annette P. Hanada George Mason University

Steve Hankin NOAA/PMEL

Lisa J. Hanle U.S. Department of Energy

Lee Hannah Center for Applied Biodiversity Science

Bryan J. Hannegan United States Senate 

James M. Hannon Sippican Inc.

Lara J. Hansen World Wildlife Fund

James E. Hansen NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Penelope Hansen Environment and Energy Study Institute (EESI)

Robert C. Hansen National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Howard P. Hanson Los Alamos National Laboratory

Paul J. Hanson Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Penny Hanson Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Singy Hanyona Green Living Movement

Pat Harcourt Waquoit Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve

Douglas R. Hardy University of Massachusetts

Lowry A. Harper USDA-Agricultural Research Service

Stephanie Harrington National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Susan W Harris National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Ed Harrison NOAA/PMEL

Edwin F. Harrison NASA Langley Research Center

Jake Haselswerdt Lewis-Burke Associates

John C. Haskins Moss Landing Marine Laboratories

Jerry L. Hatfield USDA/Agricultural Research Service

John R. Haugh Bureau of Land Management

Karl Hausker PA Consulting Group

Katharine Hayhoe ATMOS Research and Consulting

Anthony D. Haymet CSIRO

John A Haynes National Aeronautics & Space Administration

Badra Sriyani Hearath University of Sri Jayawardhanapura

Sarah V. Heath GF Energy, LLC

Michael A. Heeb National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Steve Heibein

BertJan Heij Netherlands Climate Change Research Programme

Douglas W. Heim NEDO

Isaac M. Held NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Edward Helminski National Carbon Sequestration Conference

George R. Hendrey Brookhaven National Laboratory

Blair C. Henry University of North Dakota

Robert T. Henson University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Einar-Arne Herland European Space Agency - ESTEC

Charles N. Herrick Stratus Consulting Inc.

Antonia Herzog Natural Resources Defense Council

Shannon D. Heyck-Williams Senate Environment & Public Works Committee

Joseph S. Hezir EOP Group, Inc.

Thomas J. Hickey Raytheon

Clifford A. Hickman USDA Forest Service

Winston H. Hickox California Environmental Protection Agency

Bruce B. Hicks National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jennifer Hicks Chesapeake Climate Action Network

Wayne Higgins Climate Prediction Center/NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Steven D. Hilberg Illinois State Water Survey

Peter H. Hildebrand NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Steve G. Hildebrand Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Harvey S. Hill National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Dexter Hinckley Retired

Brian R. Hinman U.S. Climate Action Network

Larry Hinzman University of Alaska Fairbanks

Leonard P. Hirsch Smithsonian Institute

Porter Hoagland WHOI

Stacey Hockett Sherlock University of Maryland

Robert Hoeft American Society of Agronomy

Martin I. Hoffert New York University

David J. Hofmann NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory

William G. Hohenstein U.S. Department of Agriculture

Patrick W. Holden Waterborne Environmental, Inc.

Eric K. Holdsworth Edison Electric Institute

Elisabeth A. Holland National Center for Atmospheric Research

David Y. Hollinger USDA Forest Service

Steven E. Hollinger Illinois State Water Survey

Tony Hollingsworth European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Connie D. Holmes National Mining Association

Susan H. Holte U.S. Department of Energy

John L. Hom USDA Forest Service

Maria Hood Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission - UNESCO

William H. Hooke American Meteorological Society

Robert P. Hopkins National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Eli W. Hopson House Science Committee

Christopher C. Horner Competitive Enterprise Institute

Fiona M. C. Horsfall National Weather Service

Linda L. Horton Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Annex A.Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants

Andrew H. Horvitz NOAA/National Weather Service

Wayne Hosking Horne Engineering

John C. Houghton U.S. Department of Energy

Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center

Thomas F. Hourigan NOAA Fisheries

Paul R. Houser NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Bob Howarth Cornell University

Douglas Hoyt Retired

James M. Hrubovcak U.S. Department of Agriculture

Jin Huang National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Ho Chun Huang Illinois State Water Survey

Robert E. Huie National Institute of Standards and Technology

Allen G. Hunt National Science Foundation

Thomas G. Huntington U.S. Geological Survey

James Hurrell University Corporation Atmospheric Research

George C. Hurtt University of New Hampshire

Robert C. Hyman Cambridge Systematics

Helen Ingram University of California, Irvine

Ron Isaacs Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER)

Eric C. Itsweire National Science Foundation

R. Cesar Izaurralde Joint Global Change Research Institute

Clifford A. Jacobs National Science Foundation

Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University

Katharine L. Jacobs Arizona State Department of Water Resources

Henry D. Jacoby Massachusetts Institute of Technology

L. Douglas James National Science Foundation

Anthony C. Janetos H. John Heinz, III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment

Jack E. Janisch Washington Department of Ecology

Steven Japar Ford Motor Company

Emily A. Jarvis Senator Snowe’s Office

Julie D. Jastrow Argonne National Laboratory

Pincas Jawetz New York University

Michael D. Jawson USDA/Agricultural Research Service

David A. Jay Oregon Health & Science University

Tara Jay University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)

Steven Jayne Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Ming Ji National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Gensuo J. Jia University of Virginia

J. Scott Jiusto George Perkins March Institute

Anne K. Johnson U.S. General Accounting Office

B. Carol Johnson National Institute of Standards and Technology

Mark Johnson University of Alaska Fairbanks

Michael R. Johnson NOAA Office of Global Programs

Gary H. Johnston National Park Service

Amber L. Jones National Science Foundation 

Carol A. Jones U.S. Department of Agriculture

James Jones University of Florida

Philip W. Jones Los Alamos National Laboratory

Russell O. Jones American Petroleum Institute

Sonja B. Jones Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Linda A. Joyce Rocky Mountain Research Station

Glenn Patrick Juday University of Alaska Fairbanks

Lesley Julian Retired National Weather Service

Susan Julius USEPA/Office of Research and Development

Chris O. Justice University of Maryland

John R. Justus Library of Congress - Congressional Research Service

Tina M. Kaarsberg United States Congress Science Committee 

Menas Kafatos George Mason University

Ramesh K. Kakar National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Eugenia Kalnay University of Maryland

Sally M. Kane National Science Foundation

Ben J. Kangasniemi British Columbia Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection

Zoe H. Kant The Nature Conservancy

Marlene Kaplan National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jeffrey S. Kargel U.S. Geological Survey

Dave Karl University of Hawaii

Thomas R. Karl NOAA/National Climatic Data Center

Miriam Kastner Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

Seiji Kato Hampton University

Kelli L. Kay American Legislative Exchange Council

Leslie Kay National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jack A. Kaye National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Terry J. Keating U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air and Radiation

Alvin E. Keaton Senior Scientists and Engineers

Michael J. Keeler Ecologic Solution

Ralph Keeling Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Timothy R.E. Keeney National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Stephen E. Kelleher World Wildlife Fund-WWF

Bill Keller Ontario Ministry of the Environment

John J. Kelly, Jr. NOAA/National Weather Service

Walter B. Kelly U.S. Department of State

Willett Kempton University of Delaware

Charles F. Kennel Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

183

John L. Kermond University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/NOAA

William Kessler NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Ehsan U. Khan U.S. Department of Energy

Reza M. Khanbilvardi City University of New York

Haroon S. Kheshgi Exxon Mobil Research and Engineering Company

Margaret Kieffer National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jeffrey Kiehl National Center for Atmospheric Research

Timothy Killeen National Center for Atmospheric Research

Edward J. Kim National Aeronautics and Space Administration

John Kimble U.S. Department of Agriculture

Anthony W. King Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Michael D. King NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Roger King National Aeronautics and Space Administration

James L. Kinter Institute of Global Environment and Society

William Kirby U.S. Geological Survey

S.M. Kirschner Union of Concerned Scientists

David Kirtland U.S. Geological Survey

David E. Kissel University of Georgia

Michael J. Klassen Science Applications Int’l Corporation

Steven L. Kleespie Rio Tinto

Axel Kleidon University of Maryland

George A. Klouda National Institute of Standards and Technology

Robert G. Knox NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Malcolm K. Ko NASA Langley Research Center

Chester J. Koblinsky NASA and CCSPO

Kristen Koch DOC/NOAA/OAR/Office of Scientific Support

Louisa Koch National Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (NOAA)

Drew K. Kodjak National Commission on Energy Policy

Russell Koffler NOAA (Retired); Consultant

Felix Kogan National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NESDIS

Christine R Kojac House Appropriations Committee

Charles Kolstad Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Karen H. Koltes U.S. Department of the Interior

George J. Komar NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Burton H. Koske Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL)

Thomas Krafft German National Committee on Global Change Research

Richard J. Kramer DynCorp

Kristen L. Krapf National Research Council

Jamie M. Krauk National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

David A.R. Kristovich Illinois State Water Survey

Herbert W. Kroehl National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Dina Kruger U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Edward W. Kruse National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jeff Kueter George Marshall Institute

Jeff R. Kuhn University of Hawaii

Keelin S. Kuipers National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

George Kukla Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University

Betsy A. Kulle Maryland Department of Natural Resources

Arun Kumar National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sunil Kumar Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

Michael J. Kurylo National Aeronautics and Space Administration; NIST

Won-Tae Kwon Meteorological Research Institute

Kent P. Laborde National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University

Murari Lal Indian Institute of Technology Delhi

Rattan Lal The Ohio State University

Peter J. Lamb The University of Oklahoma

H. Richard Lane National Science Foundation

Nadine T. Laporte University of Maryland 

Daniel A. Lashof Natural Resources Defense Council

John A. Lasley SAIC

Istvan Laszlo National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jim Latimer U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Thomas Laughlin NOAA/International Affairs

Conrad C. Lautenbacher Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere

Peggy A. Lautenschlager State of Wisconsin Department of Justice

James D. Laver NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Richard G. Lawford National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Edward A. Laws University of Hawaii

Linda L. Lawson U.S. Department of Transportation

David Layzell Queens University, Canada

Judith L. Lean Naval Research Laboratory

Neil A. Leary START

Stephen Leatherman Florida International University 

Sharon K. LeDuc NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Albert Lee National Institute of Standards and Technology

Arthur Lee ChevronTexaco Corporation

Cindy Lee State University of New York at Stony Brook

Tsengdar J. Lee NASA Earth Science Enterprise

Virginia Lee RI Sea Grant/ URI CRC

Ants Leetmaa NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Robert J. Leffler NOAA National Weather Service

David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office
Annex A.Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Margaret Leinen National Science Foundation

Richard Lempert National Science Foundation

Barry M. Lesht Argonne National Laboratory

Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington

Daniel W. Leubecker Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation

L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Sydney Levitus NODC/NOAA

Joel M. Levy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Gad Levy NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA)

Orest Lewinter New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (retired)

Craig A. Lewis ChevronTexaco

Marlo Lewis, Jr. Competitive Enterprise Institute

Clement D. Lewsey NOAA/NOS

Frances C. Li National Science Foundation

Tim Li University of Hawaii

Zin-Zhong Liang Illinois State Water Survey

Sanjay S. Limaye Office of Space Science Education, Space Science and Engineering Center

Allison F. Linden Department of Health and Human Services

John J. Lipsey Tetra Tech, Inc.

Michael M. Little NASA Langley Research Center

Chung-Ming Liu National Taiwan University

Diana M. Liverman University of Arizona

Robert E. Livezey National Weather Service

Steven A. Lloyd The Johns Hopkins University

Maryalice Locke U.S. Federal Aviation Administration

Eric R. Locklear National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Brent M. Lofgren NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

William Logan National Research Council

Susan Long Columbia University

Geoff B. Love Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Thomas R. Loveland U.S. Geological Survey

Alan A. Lucier National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc.

Roger Lukas University of Hawaii

Peter Lunn U.S. Department of Energy

Le N. Ly NPS/NOAA

Sheila Lynch Northeast Advanced Vehicle Consortium

Lingfang Ma University of Virginia

Michael MacCracken International Commission on Climate

Sandy MacCracken U.S. Global Change Research Program/CCSPO

Alexander MacDonald NOAA/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

Anthony MacDonald Coastal States Organization

Tahamoana Macpherson Embassy of New Zealand

Caren W. Madsen NOAA Research 

Lorenz Magaard University of Hawaii

Judith Maguire Environmental Protection Agency

Obed A. Mahena VIijana Vision of Tanzania 

Jerry D. Mahlman National Center for Atmospheric Research

Bernard J. Mahoney Independent

James R. Mahoney NOAA/U.S. Climate Change Science Program

Martha E. Maiden National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Gyorgy Major Hungarian Meteorological Society

Gene Makar Forte Associates, Inc.

Jonathan T. Malay Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.

Kate Maliga NASA Office of External Relations 

Elizabeth L. Malone Joint Global Change Research Institute

Robert C. Malone Los Alamos National Laboratory

Deborah R. Mangis U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Martin R. Manning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/WG I

Antonio Mannino NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Nathan Mantua University of Washington

John H. Marburger III Office of Science and Technology Policy

Kristin Marcell NYS DEC Hudson River Estuary Program

Suzanne K. M. Marcy U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Jan W. Mares EOP Group

Hank Margolis Universite Laval, Canada

Hal Maring National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Helaine W. Markewich Department of the Interior/U.S. Geological Survey

Gregg Marland Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Robert Marlay U.S. Department of Energy

Todd Marse University of New Orleans

Robert R.R. Marston National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

R. Gene Martin University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Judy Martz Western Governors’ Association

Paul L. Marx Federal Transit Administration

Byron Mason National Academies

Cheryl L. Mason National Science Foundation

Katie Mastriani Columbia University

Edward J. Masuoka NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Roser Matamala Argonne National Laboratory

David Mathis USACE

Gary C. Matlock NOAA/National Ocean Science

Patty Matrai Bigelow Laboratory

David A. Matthews DOI/U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

184

Mike A. Matthews National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Lourdes Q. Maurice Federal Aviation Administration

Nancy G. Maynard NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Wilfred E. Mazur NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Michael Mazzella Science Applications International Corp.

Margaret R. McCalla NOAA/Office of the Federal Coordinator

Eileen McCauley California Air Resources Board

Bonnie McCay Rutgers University

Douglas A. McChesney Washington Department of Ecology

Charles R. McClain NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Lindsay R. McClelland National Park Service

John L. McCormick Citizens Coal Council

John McCoy

Julian McCreary University of Hawaii

Kenneth R. McDonald NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Robert H. McFadden GHG Associates

Mack McFarland DuPont Fluoroproducts

Jim McGrath Retired

James Mcguire National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Edward L. McIntosh Citizen

Douglas G. McKinney National Risk Management Research Laboratory

Diane McKnight University of Colorado

Andrea McMakin Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Larry M. McMillin NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

John A. McMorris AgCert International, LLC

Catherine P. McMullen Allophilia

James M. McNeal U.S. Geological Survey

Richard T. McNider National Space Science and Technology Center

Diane McNight University of Colorado

Ronald D. McPherson American Meteorological Society

Steve Meacham National Science Foundation

Linda O. Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research

Esther Mecking Burke Mountain Academy

Tom Medaglia RWE

Michelle Medeiros Greenpeace

Jerry Meehl University Corporation Atmospheric Research

J. Patrick Megonigal Smithsonian Environmental Research Center

Vikram M. Mehta The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System

Eric A. Meindl National Data Buoy Center

Jill R. Meldon National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jie Meng NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Phil Merilees National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Karen L. Metchis U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Alden M. Meyer Union of Concerned Scientists

Jim Meyer Shannon Lab

Frederick Meyerson AAAS/NSF Science and Technology Policy Fellow

Horst Meyrahn RWE Rheinbraun AG

Patrick J. Michaels University of Virginia

Aurelia J. Micko UCAR/NOAA

Elizabeth M. Middleton NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Paulette B. Middleton Panorama Pathways

Edward Miles University of Washington

Constance I. Millar U.S. Forest Service, PSW Research Station

Alan Miller The World Bank

Charles E. Miller Haverford College

Christopher D. Miller National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

David L. Miller Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory

Douglas A. Miller Pennsylvania State University

Mark Miller Brookhaven National Laboratory

Norman L. Miller Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Ralph Milli NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA)

John L. Mimikakis United States House of Representatives Committee on Science

Laura Miner-Nordstrom U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Jean-Bernard Minster University of California, San Diego

Irving Mintzer Pacific Institute

Sara E. Mirabilio National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

Ron Mitchell University of Oregon

Humio Mitsudera University of Hawaii

Alan C. Mix Oregon State University

John R. Moisan National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Bruce F. Molnia U.S. Geological Survey

Craig F. Montesano National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Linda V. Moodie National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Harold A. Mooney Stanford University

Kenneth A. Mooney National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Berrien Moore III University of New Hampshire

Dennis W. Moore Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA

Melinda Moore U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

Thomas G. Moore Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Joseph M. Moran American Meteorological Society

Stephen G. Moran Raytheon Company

Barbara J. Morehouse University of Arizona

Jack A. Morgan USDA Agricultural Research Service
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Annex A.Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants

Jennifer Morgan World Wildlife Fund

Richard E. Moritz University of Washington

John H. Morrill Arlington County

John M. Morrison North Carolina State University

Wayne A. Morrissey Library of Congress

Susanne Moser Union of Concerned Scientists

John F. Moses National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Richard Moss U.S. Climate Change Science Program

Philip W. Mote University of Washington

Jarvis L. Moyers National Science Foundation

Glenn D. Mroz Michigan Tech University

Hussin Muhamed Department of Geography, Damascus

Patrick J. Mulholland Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Duane M. Muller U.S. Agency for International Development

Charles H. Murphy Unidata/UCAR

William L. Murray NOAA/Office of Global Programs

John N. Musinsky Conservation International

John C. Mutter Columbia University

Carolyn Z. Mutter International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University

Charles E. Myers National Science Foundation

Gerald Myers Ophir Corporation

Knute J. Nadelhoffer National Science Foundation

Hironori Nakanishi NEDO

Don Nangira World Meteorological Organization

Arthur F. Napolitano Raytheon - Space and Airborne Systems

Syed Mahmood Nasir Ministry of Environment, Local Government & Rural Development

Patrick J. Neale Smithsonian Environmental Research Center

Thomas R. Neff Mitretek Systems

William D. Neff National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/OAR

Juniper M. Neill National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Ronald P. Neilson U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service

Loren Nelson Ophir Corporation

Paul Nelson Southwest Research Institute

Patrick J. Neuman National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sandra G. Neuzil U.S. Geological Survey

Richard E. Newell U.S. Department of Commerce (retired)

George B. Newton U.S. Arctic Research Commission

Mary D. Nichols California Resources Agency

Elizabeth E. Nicholson National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Ala Vladimir Nicolenco Moldavian Academy of Sciences

Claudia Nierenberg National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Ian R Noble The World Bank

Juan C. Nogales JRM Inc.

Vivian Pardo Nolan U.S. Geological Survey

Richard J. Norby Oak Ridge National Laboratory

John J. Novak Electric Power Research Institute

Albert Nunez City of Takoma Park, Cities for Climate Protection Campaign

Frank Nutter Reinsurance Association

James J. O’Brien Florida State University

Maureen R O’Brien Office of Science and Technology Policy

Robert E. O’Connor National Science Foundation

Sean O’Keefe National Aeronautics and Space Administration

William F. O’Keefe George C. Marshall Institute

James M. O’Sullivan National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Godwin O.P. Obasi World Meteorological Organization

Walter C. Oechel San Diego State University

Robert J. Oglesby National Aeronautics and Space Administration/MSFC

John Ogren NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory

Eiji Ohira Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry

Richard L Ohlemacher National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Peter E. Ohonsi York University

George Ohring National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Dennis S. Ojima Colorado State University

Charles Chinedu Okeke NUSA International ltd.

Kirsten U. Oldenburg U.S. Department of Transportation

Lembulung O. Kosyando Naadutaro (Pastoralists’ Survival Options)

Curtis R. Olsen University of Massachusetts Boston

John O. Olsen Heatlog Industries Inc.

Kathie L. Olsen Office of Science and Technology Policy

Lola M. Olsen NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Joan Oltman-Shay NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA)

James Opaluch University of Rhode Island

Michael Oppenheimer Princeton University

William C. Orr National Alternative Fuels Foundation

Jessica P. Orrego Climate Change Science Program Office

Charles B. Osmond Columbia University

Doug Osugi State of California, Department of Water Resources

Ralph P. Overend National Renewable Energy Laboratory

James E. Overland PMEL/NOAA

Jonathan T. Overpeck University of Arizona

Stphen W Pacala Princeton University

Rajendraa K. Pachauri TATA Energy Research Institute.TERI,The Habitat Place

Pamela E. Padgett USDA Forest Service

185

Julie M. Palais OPP/NSF

Michael A. Palecki Illinois State Water Survey

Anna C. Palmisano U.S. Department of Energy

Theresa Paluszkiewicz National Science Foundation

Robert J. Pankiewicz Product Application Services

Kathryn L. Parker U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Claire L. Parkinson NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Martin I. Parry School of Environmental Scientists

Edward A. Parson Harvard University

Mark Parsons University of Colorado, Boulder (CIRES)

David F. Paskausky Wind,Water and Waves

Toral Patel-Weynand U.S. Department of State

Ari A. Patrinos U.S. Department of Energy

James W. Patten Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Jonathan A. Patz Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Eldor A. Paul Colorado State University

James H. Paul House Science Committee

Milan J. Pavich U.S. Geological Survey

Steven Pawson UMBC/GEST & NASA/DAO

D. S. Peacock National Science Foundation

Donald H. Pearlman The Climate Council

Sam Pearsall The Nature Conservancy - North Carolina Chapter

William T. Pennell Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Diana L. Perfect NOAA National Weather Service

Alan D. Perrin U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Veronika Pesinova U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Christa Peters-Lidard NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

William Peterson NOAA Fisheries

Annie Petsonk Environmental Defense Fund

Lawrence Pettinger U.S. Geological Survey

Rickey C. Petty U.S. Department of Energy

Jonathan T. Phinney National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Roger A. Pielke, Sr. American Association of State Climatologists

Crispin H. Pierce University of Washington

Henry J. Pierce SAIC

Raymond Pierrehumbert The University of Chicago

Leonard J. Pietrafesa North Carolina State University

Paul R. Pike Ameren

Rick S. Piltz Climate Change Science Program Office/USGCRP

Nicholas Pinter Southern Illinois University

Rodrigo G. Pinto Brazilian Embassy

Stephen R. Piotrowicz NOPP/Ocean.US

Hugh M. Pitcher Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Warren Piver National Institutes of Health

William A. Pizer Resources for the Future

Robert J. Plante Raytheon Information Systems

Gayther L. Plummer GEORGIA Climatology Association

Mitchell A. Plummer Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory

Ethan J. Podell Consultant

John Drew Polisar U.S. Department of State

Igor Polyakov University of Alaska Fairbanks

David M. Pomerantz House Committee on Appropriations

William M. Porch Los Alamos National Laboratory

Dianne L. Poster National Institute of Standards and Technology

Krishna Rao Potarazu TRW

Joanne R. Potter Cambridge Systematics

Murray Poulter National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand

Kendall S. Powell Nature

Daniel Power Climate Institute

Michael J. Prather University of California, Irvine

Cary Presser National Institute of Standards and Technology

Benjamin L. Preston Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Stuart V. Price RSVP Communications

Joseph Prospero University of Miami

Alex Pszenny University of New Hampshire

Roger Pulwarty NOAA/CIRES

Mary Quillian Nuclear Energy Institute

John Quinn Constellation Energy Group

Nancy Rabalais Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium

Frank R. Rack Joint Oceanographic Institutions

Alexander Radichevich National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Patricia A. Rainey The Boeing Company

Michael T. Rains USDA Forest Service

Don R. Raish California Casualty Insurance

Sudhir Chella Rajan Tellus Institute

V. Ramanathan Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Bruce H. Ramsay NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Robert L. Randall The RainForest ReGeneration Institute

Randy Randol Exxon Mobil

R. Keith Raney Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

Robert H. Rank NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Kenneth J. Ranson NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

S.Trivikrama Rao National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Annex A.Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Aaron G. Rappaport Union of Concerned Scientists

Beth G. Raps Independent Scholar

A. R. Ravishankara National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Walter J. Rawls USDA/Agricultural Research Service

K.B. N. Rayana IAMMA

Scott C. Rayder Department of Commerce/NOAA

Donald G. Rea Senior Scientists and Engineers, AAAS

Anthony L. Reale NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Ruth A. Reck University of California

Kambham Raja Reddy Mississippi State University

Michelle Redlin Hart Downstream Energy Services

Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center

Denise Reed University of New Orleans

Michelle A. Reed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Eileen Regan Strategic Environmental Research and Development

David E. Reichle Environmental Consultant

Stephen J. Reid National Science Foundation

Daniel A. Reifsnyder U.S. Department of State

Chris Reilly Argonne National Laboratory

John M. Reilly Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Thomas Reilly Commonwealth of Massachusetts

David S. Renné National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Nilton O. Renno The University of Michigan

Andrew C. Revkin The New York Times

Jose A. Rial University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Charles W. Rice Kansas State University

Don Rice National Science Foundation

Joseph P. Rice National Institute of Standards and Technology

Richard C. Rich Virginia Tech

Kelvin Richards University of Hawaii

Richard Richels Electrical Power Research Institute

Michele M. Rienecker NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Ray A. Rigert U.S. Army

David Rind National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Kathleen E. Ritzman Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Alberto L.R.-Rentas Metropolitan University

John O. Roads Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

Franklin R. Robertson NASA/ MSFC

David A. Robinson Rutgers University

Richard Robinson Coastal and Watershed Resources Advisory Committee

Margaret Robnett Chesapeake Climate Action Network

Alan Robock Rutgers University

Barrett N. Rock University of New Hampshire

Arturo E. Rodriguez Miami-Dade Community College

Phillip J. Roehrs American Coastal Coalition

Dean Roemmich Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

Catriona E. Rogers U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Richard B. Rood NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Peter W. Rooney House Science Committee

Maurice D. Roos California Department of Water Resources

Eugene Rosa Washington State University

Richard D. Rosen Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.

Norman J. Rosenberg Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Jeffrey O. Rosenfeld American Meteorological Society

Joshua P. Rosenthal National Institutes of Health - Fogarty International Center

Joyce E. Rosenthal Columbia University

Cynthia Rosenzweig NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Richard Rosenzwieg Natsource LLC

Kevin T. Rosseel U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

William B. Rossow NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Doug Rotman NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board

Steven Rowe Office of the Attorney General of Maine

Amy E. Royden STAPPA/ALAPCO

Howard Runge Orbital Sciences Corporation

George B. Runion USDA/Agricultural Research Service

Steven W. Running University of Montana

Leslie F. Ruppert U.S. Geological Survey

David P. Russ U.S. Geological Survey

Thomas A. Russell ITT Industries

William (Bill) E. Russo U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Gene Russo THE SCIENTIST News Journal

Glenn K. Rutledge NOAA National Climatic Data Center 

Robert Ryan NBC4

Jeffrey D. Sachs The Earth Institute at Columbia University

Rafe D. Sagarin Office of Congresswoman Hilda Solis

Raphael Sagarin University of California, Santa Barbara

William A. Salas Applied GeoSolutions, LLC

Ross J. Salawitch Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech

Michael J. Sale Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Vincent V. Salomonson NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Jason P. Samenow U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Alan H. Sanstad Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Jessica A. Santacruz

186

Benjamin D. Santer Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Edward S. Sarachik NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board/University of

Washington

Myriam Sarachik American Physical Society

Jorge Sarmiento Princeton University

Jayant A. Sathaye Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Tetsuya Sato Japan Maritime, Science and Technology Center

Janet L. Sawin Worldwatch Institute

Karyn Sawyer University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Earl C. Saxon The Nature Conservancy

Donald Scavia NOAA National Ocean Service

John C. Schaake NOAA/National Weather Service

Jacqueline Schafer U.S. Agency for International Development

Joel D. Scheraga U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Kenneth Schere U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Craig Schiffries National Council for Science and the Environment

David Schimel National Center for Atmospheric Research

Michael E. Schlesinger University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

William H. Schlesinger Duke University

Adam Schlosser GEST/UMBC/NASA

David Schmalzer Argonne National Laboratory

Cynthia E. Schmidt University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Gavin Schmidt NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board

John A. Schmidt NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board

Raymond W. Schmitt Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Anne-Marie Schmoltner National Science Foundation 

Marcus Schneider U.S. Clean Energy Program

Niklas Schneider University of Hawaii

Stephen Schneider Stanford University

Russ Schnell NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory

Mark Schoeberl NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Paul S. Schopf NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board

Siegfried D. Schubert NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Laurel J. Schultz U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Heidi Z. Schuttenberg NOAA Coral Team

Richard A. Schwabacher The Cousteau Society

Stephen E. Schwartz Brookhaven National Laboratory

Franklin B. Schwing NOAA Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory

Karen M. Scott U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Roger A. Sedjo Resources for the Future

Dian J. Seidel NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

Piers Sellers NASA/JSC

Cynthia E. Sellinger NOAA/GLERL

Hratch G. Semerjian National Institute of Standards and Technology 

Jeff Severinghaus Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

Craig Shafer National Park Service

Steven R. Shafer U.S. Department of Agriculture

Awdhseh K. Sharma NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Gary D. Sharp Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study

Walter Shaub U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Eileen L. Shea East-West Center

Edwin J. Sheffner National Aeronautics and Space Administration

J. Marshall Shepherd NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Noriko L. Shoji Office of Senator Daniel K. Inouye 

Steve E. Short Short & Associates, Inc.

Randy Showstack American Geophysical Union

Jagadish Shukla George Mason University

Martha Shulski University of Alaska Fairbanks

David Shultz U.S. Geological Survey

C. K. Shum Ohio State University

Smita Siddhanti Endyna Inc.

Hilary H. Sills Sills Associates

Katherine Silverthorne World Wildlife Fund

Lynn Simarski National Science Foundation

Emmy B. Simmons U.S. Agency for International Development

Michael E. Simmons North Carolina A&T State University

Robert J. Simon Chlorine Chemistry Council

Fiorella V. Simoni George Mason University

Caitlin F. Simpson National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Michael M. Simpson U.S. Congressional Research Service

N. Michael Simpson NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Naaman M. Simpson Department of Commerce/NOAA/NESDIS

Michael J. Singer Soil Science Society of America

Michael W. Singer Harris Corp

S. Fred Singer Science and Environmental Policy Project

Ashbindu Singh United Nations Environment Programme

Vijai Pratap Singh Institute of Environment Management & Plant Sciences,Vikram University

Douglas L. Sisterson Argonne National Laboratory

Sreeshankar S. Nair SES, NOAA (contractor)

Howard Skinner USDA-Agricultural Research Service

William Skirving NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

David Skole Michigan State University

Francis P. Slakey Public Affairs
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Annex A.Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants

Michael W. Slimak U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Julia M. Slingo NERC Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling

Richard L. Slonaker Raytheon

James R. Slusser Colorado State University

John A. Small National Institute of Standards and Technology

D. Brent Smith NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Ellen S. Smith Columbia University

Lowell F. Smith Retired

Neville R Smith Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Robert E. Smith Compass International Development

Steven J. Smith Joint Global Change Research Institute

Wade B. Smith Mitretek Systems

Anthony D. Socci U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Robert H. Socolow Princeton University

Brian Soden NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Youngsinn Sohn University of Maryland Baltimore County

Allen M. Solomon U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Susan Solomon NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory

Andrew Solow Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Shiv Someshwar International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University

W. Somplatsky-Jarman Presbyterian Church (USA)

J. Richard Soulen Retired

Thomas W. Spence National Science Foundation

Peter L. Spencer U.S. House of Representatives

Elliott C. Spiker Retired

Eliot Spitzer State of New York Office of the Attorney General

Martin A. Spitzer House Science Committee

Michael S. Spranger University of Florida

Bill Sprigg University of Arizona

Margaret F. Spring U.S. Senate Commerce Committee

Everett P. Springer Los Alamos National Laboratory

Jordan P. St. John National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Judson E. Stailey NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Detlef Stammer Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

John M. Stamos U.S. Department of Energy

Carroll L. Stang National Weather Service Office of Science and Technology

Diane Stanitski-Martin Shippensburg University, PA

Carl P. Staton National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/CIO

Amanda C. Staudt The National Academies

Eugene Steadman, Jr. CELANESE

Konstantinos Stefanidis NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Will Steffen IGBP: International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

David E. Steitz National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Sue P. Stendebach National Science Foundation

Pamela L. Stephens National Science Foundation

Louis T. Steyaert U.S. Geological Survey

Raphaela Stimmelmayr Tanana Chiefs Conference, Inc.

Alexander R. Stine Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Bryce J. Stokes USDA Forest Service

Carrie Stokes U.S. Agency for International Development

Gerald M. Stokes Joint Global Change Research Institute

Douglas H. Stone American Meteorological Society

John M.R. Stone Environment Canada

William E. Stoney Mitretek Systems

Ronald J. Stouffer NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Greg Stover NASA Langley Research Center

Tana L. Stratton Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade

Alan E. Strong NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Chris Struble Software Engineer

Jeffrey A. Stuart National Weather Service

Max J. Suarez NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Susan E. Subak University of East Anglia

Carla C. Sullivan National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Charles Sun National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Shan Sun NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

S.S. Sundarvel Pondicherry University

Eric T. Sundquist U.S. Geological Survey

Nicholas A. Sundt Climate Change Science Program Office

Terry Surles California Energy Commission

Jon Sutinen University of Rhode Island

Jan A. Suurland Royal Netherlands Embassy

Freyr Sverrisson Independent Energy Consultant

Lea E. Swanson Global Environment & Technology Foundation

William Sydeman PRBO Conservation Science

Gregory H. Symmes National Academies

Keiko Takahashi Earth Simulator Center

Taro Takahashi Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University

Eugene S.Takle Iowa State University

Pieter Tans NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory

Jay J.Tanski State University of New York

Leland Tarnay NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board/National Park

Service

Dan Tarpley NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

187

John Taylor Argonne National Laboratory

Phillip R.Taylor National Science Foundation

Kathy A.Tedesco NOAA Office of Global Programs

Miguel J. C. A.Tenreiro U.L.H.T.

Angel R.Terán National Weather Service

Maxime J.Thibon Consulate General of France

Mark Thiemens University of California, San Diego

Alan R.Thomas World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Julie E.Thomas DOI/National Park Service

Elvia H.Thompson National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Louisa R.Thompson Maryland Native Plant Society

Peter Thompson NOAA/SEFSC

Elizabeth Thorndike Center for Environmental Information

Carolyn Thoroughgood University of Delaware

Alan J.Thorpe University of Reading

Sidney Thurston National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

James G.Titus U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Andreas Tjernshaugen CICERO

James F.Todd National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sean P.Todd Fox Potomac Resources LLC

Christine Todd-Whitman Administrator, US Environmental Protection Agency

Pamela L.Tomski EES Group, Ltd.

John C.Topping Climate Institute

Margaret S.Torn Lawrence Berkeley Lab/UCB

Michael P.Totten Conservation International

John R.Townshend University of Maryland

Charles C.Trees National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Kevin E.Trenberth National Center for Atmospheric Research

Thomas Triller German Embassy

Dennis A.Trout Retired

Juli M.Trtanj University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Paul D.Try International GEWEX Project Office

Lucia S.Tsaoussi National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Nancy C.Tuchman National Science Foundation

Diane M.Turchetta U.S. Department of Transportation

Karl K.Turekian Yale University

Vaughan C.Turekian U.S. State Department

Kenneth W.Turgeon U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy

William T.Turnbull NOAA/CIO

Kelly M.Turner National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

William W.Turner National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Alexander Tuyahov National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Paul F.Twitchell International GEWEX Project Office

Henry Tyrrell U.S. Department of Agriculture

Michael Uhart National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Deborah P. Underwood North Carolina A&T State University

Sushel Unninayar National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Ana L. Unruh Office of Rep. Edward Markey

Lall Upmanu Columbia University

Deanne R. Upson Teletrips

David P. Urbanski Air Force Combat Climatology Center

Susan Ustin Department of Land, Air, and Water Resource

Arthur C.Vailas University of Houston

Francisco P.J.Valero Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego

Azita Valinia NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Deborah G.Vane Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Lelia B.Vann NASA Langley Research Center

Dalia E.Varanka U.S. Geological Survey

Lisa Farrow Vaughan National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Robert Venezia National Aeronautics and Space Administration

David J.Verardo National Science Foundation

Michael Verkouteren National Institute of Standards and Technology

Hans J.H.Verolme British Embassy

Konstantin Vinnikov University of Maryland

Hassan Virji START Secretariat

Martin Visbeck Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Stephen M.Volz National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Thomas H.Vonder Haar Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Richard Wagener Brookhaven National Laboratory

David L.Wagger Independent Researcher

Frederic H.Wagner Utah State University

Thomas W.Wagner University of Michigan

Cameron Wake University of New Hampshire

Shelby E.Walker National Science Foundation

Margaret K.Walsh ICF Consulting

John Walsh University of Alaska Fairbanks

Chris Walvoord National Environmental Trust

Bin Wang University of Hawaii

Julian X.L.Wang Air Resources Laboratory

Rik Wanninkhof NOAA/AOML

James T.Waples University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee/Great Lakes WATER Institute

M. Neil Ward International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)

Morris (Bud) A.Ward Moris A.Ward, Inc.
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David A.Warrilow UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Warren M.Washington National Center for Atmospheric Research

Lewis T.Waters Consultant

Harlan L.Watson U.S. Department of State

Kathy L.Watson NOAA, Office of Global Programs

Thomas B.Watson National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Mark P.Weadon U.S. Air Force

John W.Weatherly Cold Regions Research Lab, ERDC, US Army Corps of Engineers

Ronald L. S.Weaver National Snow and Ice Data Center

Robert S.Webb NOAA/OAR/Climate Diagnostics Center

Elke U.Weber Columbia University

Larry H.Weber National Science Foundation

Ted Weber Chesapeake and Coastal Watershed Service, Maryland Department of Natural

Resources

Eric Webster United States House of Representatives

Michael F.Wehner Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Rodney Weiher National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Allan M.Weiner Harris Corporation

Joseph M.Welch NOAA/National Ocean Service

Gunter Weller University of Alaska Fairbanks

Robert A.Weller Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Mark Weltz USDA/Agricultural Research Service

Gerd Wendler University of Alaska Fairbanks

Frank J.Wentz Remote Sensing Systems

Carol A.Werner Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Jon Werner U.S. Department of Agriculture

Jason West AAAS Environmental Fellow

Jordan M.West U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

June M.Whelan National Petrochemical and Refiners Association

Elizabeth A.White National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

James C.White Center for Environmental Information

Robert M.White Washington Advisory Group

Jeff Whitlow U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Carol E.Whitman National Rural Electric Cooperative Association

Gene Whitney Office of Science and Technology Policy

Diane E.Wickland National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Bruce A.Wielicki NASA Langley Research Center

John Wiener Independent Reviewer

Tom M.L.Wigley UCAR,WORI, Acacia Project

Mark Wigmosta Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Thomas J.Wilbanks Oak Ridge National Laboratory

George T.Wilcox American Meteorological Society

Harold Wilhite University of Oslo

Richard R.Wilk Indiana University

Diana Wilkins UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Debra A.Willard U.S. Geological Survey

Sean R.Willard NOAA Climate Office

Ted Z.Willard NASA Programs/CSC

Allen Williams Illinois State Water Survey

Darrel L.Williams NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Elizabeth O.Williams National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Gregory J.Williams National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Larry J.Williams Electric Power Research Institute

Richard S.Williams, Jr. U.S. Geological Survey

Samuel P.Williamson NOAA/Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Stanley Wilson Department of Commerce

Doug Wilson National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Gary P.Wilson Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.

Jim Wilson University of Dublin

Tyrone P.Wilson U.S. Geological Survey

David M.Winker NASA Langley Research Center

Julie A.Winkler Michigan State University

Darrell A.Winner U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Robert S.Winokur Earth Satellite Corporation (EarthSat)

Derek Winstanley Illinois State Water Survey

Creighton D.Wirick Brookhaven National Laboratory

Warren Wiscombe NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Gregory W.Withee DOC/NOAA/NESDIS

James M.Witting Unaffiliated

Steve Wittrig BP Amoco Chemicals Company

Steven C.Wofsy Harvard University

David E.Wojick Climatechangedebate.org

Henry Wolf George Mason University School of Computational Science

David W.Wolfe Cornell University

George Wolff General Motors Corporation

Kevin R.Wood National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

George Wooddell University of Louisiana at Lafayette

Ginny L.Worrest United States Senate

Robert C.Worrest U.S. Global Change Research Information Office (GCRIO)

Darlene Wright Tanana Chiefs Conference, Inc.

Xiangqian Wu DOC/NESDIS/Office of Research and Application

Stan D.Wullschleger Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Annie Wyndham Independent Reviewer

David Yap Ontario Ministry of the Environment

Brent Yarnal Pennsylvania State University

Jim Yoder National Science Foundation

Shira Yoffe U.S. Department of State

Abby M.Young International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives

Michael T.Young Short and Associates

Barbara G.Yuhas International City/County Management Association

Cheryl L.Yuhas National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Scott A.Yuknis Meteorlogix

Bernard Zak Sandia National Laboratory

Rahul A. Zaveri Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Stephen E. Zebiak NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board/Int’l Research

Institute for Climate Prediction

Steve Zebiak NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board

Richard Zepp U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Chris Zganjar The Nature Conservancy

Renyi Zhang Texas A&M University

Jiayu Zhou NOAA/National Weather Service

Herman B. Zimmerman National Science Foundation

Patrick R. Zimmerman South Dakota School of Mines and Technology

Rae Zimmerman New York University

Mark A. Zito U.S. Department of Agriculture

Francis Zwiers Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

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NACP, 2002: The North American Carbon Program (NACP).A

Report of the NACP Committee of the U.S. Carbon Cycle

Science Steering Group [Wofsy, S. and R. Harriss (eds.)].

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,

Boulder, Colorado, USA, 56 pp.

NASA, 2002: Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: Proceedings of

a Workshop (Honolulu, Hawaii • 29 April - 3 May 2002)

[Hansen, J.E. (ed.)]. National Aeronautics and Space

Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies,

New York, NY, USA, 169 pp.

NRC, 1999a: Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways

for the Next Decade. Committee on Global Change

Research, National Research Council, National Academy

Press,Washington, DC, USA, 616 pp.

NRC, 1999b: Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support

Climate Change Assessment Activities. Climate Research

Committee, National Research Council, National

Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 78 pp.

References BANNEX

189
Annex B. References Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

NRC, 1999c: Our Common Journey:A Transition toward Sustainability.

Board on Sustainable Development, National Research Council,

National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 363 pp.

NRC, 1999d: From Monsoons to Microbes: Understanding the Ocean’s

Role in Human Health. Committee on the Ocean’s Role in

Human Health, National Research Council, National Academy

Press,Washington, DC, USA, 144 pp.

NRC, 1999e: Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Committee on the

Human Dimensions of Global Change, National Research

Council, National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 187 pp.

NRC, 1999f: A Question of Balance: Private Rights and the Public Interest

in Scientific and Technical Databases. National Research Council,

National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 158 pp.

NRC, 1999g: Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems. Panel on Climate

Observing Systems Status, Climate Research Committee,

National Research Council, National Academy Press,

Washington, DC, USA, 66 pp.

NRC, 2000: Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change.

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources,

National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 104 pp.

NRC, 2001a: Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key Questions.

Committee on the Science of Climate Change, National

Research Council, National Academy Press,Washington, DC,

USA, 42 pp.

NRC, 2001b: Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences. Committee

on Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences, National

Research Council, National Academy Press,Washington, DC,

USA, 106 pp.

NRC, 2001c: Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious

Disease. Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National

Research Council, National Academy Press,Washington, DC,

USA, 160 pp.

NRC, 2001d: Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling.

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research

Council, National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 142 pp.

NRC, 2001e: The Science of Regional and Global Change: Putting

Knowledge to Work. Committee on Global Change Research,

National Research Council, National Academy Press,

Washington, DC, USA, 19 pp.

NRC, 2001f: Global Air Quality:An Imperative for Long-Term

Observational Strategies. Committee on Atmospheric Chemistry,

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research

Council, National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 56 pp.

NRC, 2002: Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Committee

on Abrupt Climate Change, Ocean Studies Board, Polar

Research Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,

Division on Earth and Life Sciences, National Research Council,

National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 230 pp.

Ocean Theme Team, 2001: An Ocean Theme for the IGOS Partnership

[Lindstrom, E., J. Fellous, M. Drinkwater, R. Navalgund, J.

Marra,T.Tanaka, J. Johannessen, C. Summerhayes, and L.

Charles (eds.)]. NP-2001-01-261-HQ. National Aeronautics and

Space Administration [on behalf of the Integrated Global

Observing Strategy (IGOS) Partnership],Washington, DC,

USA, 36 pp.

USGCRP, 2000: High-End Climate Science: Development of Modeling

and Related Computing Capabilities. Ad Hoc Working Group on

Climate Modeling (report to the USGCRP, December 2000),

U.S. Global Change Research Program,Washington, DC, USA,

44 pp.

USGCRP, 2001: A Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water

Cycle [Hornberger, G.M. J.D. Aber, J. Bahr, R.C. Bales, K.

Beven, E. Foufoula-Georgiou, G. Katul, J.L. Kinter III, R.D.

Koster, D.P. Lettenmaier, D. McKnight, K. Miller, K. Mitchell,

J.O. Roads, B.R. Scanlon, and E. Smith (eds.)].The USGCRP

Water Cycle Study Group, U.S. Global Change Research

Program,Washington, DC, USA, 118 pp.

WAG, 1997: Climate Change and Vector-Borne and Other Infectious

Diseases:A Research Agenda.The Washington Advisory Group,

Washington, DC, USA, 25 pp.

WCRP, 1995: CLIVAR Science Plan - A Study of Climate Variability and

Predictability.World Climate Research Programme Report No.

89 (WMO/TD No. 690),World Meteorological Organization,

Geneva, Switzerland, 157 pp.

WMO, 1999: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1998. Global

Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report No. 44,

World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 732 pp.

WMO, 2003: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002. Global

Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report No. 47,

World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 498 pp.

190
Only Strategic Plan graphics with more detailed captions

and/or source information have been included in this

annex—hence the gaps in figure numbering.

Figure 3-2: Schematic illustrating a comparison among

several factors that influence Earth's climate.These factors

can be broadly compared using the concept of radiative

forcing.The principal forcings arise from changes in

atmospheric composition of gases, aerosols, clouds, land

use, and solar output.The rectangular bars represent best

estimates of the contributions of these forcings, some of

which yield warming and some cooling.The forcing

contributions are shown for different aerosol types and for

those produced or emitted by aviation.The indirect effect

shown for aerosols is their effect on the size and number of

cloud droplets. A second indirect effect, namely the effect

on cloud lifetime, which would lead to a negative forcing, is

not shown.The vertical line about the rectangular bars

indicates the range of estimates. A vertical line without a

rectangular bar denotes a forcing for which no best estimate

can be given owing to large uncertainties. Aerosol forcings

are generally not uniform over the globe, unlike those of

well-mixed greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2).A more detailed

description of this schematic and its interpretation is

provided by the IPCC (IPCC, 2001a,d).

Figure 3-3: Schematic of the processes that cause the

formation and transformation of aerosol particles in the

atmosphere. Aerosols can be emitted directly into the

atmosphere or be formed there from the emissions of

gaseous precursors. Particles grow by condensation of gases

and by coagulation with other particles. Sizes of important

atmospheric particles vary over several orders of magnitude.

Reactions can occur on the surfaces of particles that can

alter the composition of the particle or the surrounding

atmosphere. Particles can also grow to become cloud

droplets or ice crystals. Particle number and composition

can influence the formation and radiative characteristics of

clouds. Particles scavenge a variety of gases from the

atmosphere and are eventually removed from the atmosphere

by wet or dry deposition to Earth's surface. Graphic adapted

from: Heintzenberg, J., F. Raes, and S.E. Schwartz, 2003:

Tropospheric aerosols. In: Atmospheric Chemistry in a

Changing World:An Integration and Synthesis of a Decade of

Tropospheric Chemistry Research [Brasseur, G.P., R.G. Prinn,

and A.A.P. Pszenny (eds)]. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY,

USA, pp. 125-156.

Figure 3-4: Schematic illustrating the estimated recovery

of stratospheric ozone in the coming decades. Observations

show the decline of global total ozone (top panel) and

minimum values of total ozone over Antarctica (lower

panel) beginning in 1980. In the future, the amounts of

chlorine- and bromine-containing gases are expected to

further diminish in the stratosphere as a result of international

compliance with the Montreal Protocol and, in response,

ozone amounts are expected to recover significantly toward

values observed in 1980 and before.The range of recovery

times shown is based on predictions of atmospheric models.

The model results differ because they have different

assumptions about the composition and meteorology of the

future stratosphere.The research needs as outlined in

Section 3.4 address reducing the range of uncertainty in

ozone recovery estimates. More detail on the recovery of

stratospheric ozone is provided in the Scientific Assessment of

Ozone Depletion: 2002 (WMO, 2003).

Figure 4-1:The Earth's surface temperature has increased

by about 0.6°C over the record of direct temperature

measurements (1860-2000, top panel)—a rise that is

unprecedented, at least based on proxy temperature data

for the Northern Hemisphere, over the last millennium

(bottom panel). In the top panel the departures from global

mean surface temperature are shown year-by-year (red bars

with very likely ranges as thin black line) and approximately

decade-by-decade (continuous red line). Analyses take into

account data gaps, random instrumental errors and

uncertainties, uncertainties in bias corrections in the ocean

surface temperature data, and also uncertainties in adjustments

for urbanization over the land.The lower panel merges

proxy data (year-by-year blue line with very likely ranges as

gray band, 50-year-average purple line) and the direct

temperature measurements (red line) for the Northern

Hemisphere.The proxy data consist of tree rings, corals, ice

cores, and historical records that have been calibrated

against thermometer data. Insufficient data are available to

assess such changes in the Southern Hemisphere. Source:

IPCC (2001d).

Figure 4-2: Simulating the Earth's temperature variations

and comparing the results to the measured changes can

provide insight into the underlying causes of the major

changes. A climate model can be used to simulate the

temperature changes that occur from both natural and

anthropogenic causes.The simulations represented by the

band in (a) were done with only natural forcings: solar

variation and volcanic activity.Those encompassed by the

band in (b) were done with anthropogenic forcings:

greenhouse gases and an estimate of sulfate aerosols.

Those encompassed by the band in (c) were done with

both natural and anthropogenic forcings included. From

(b), it can be seen that the inclusion of anthropogenic

forcings provides a plausible explanation for a substantial

part of the observed temperature changes over the past

century, but the best match with observations is obtained in

(c) when both natural and anthropogenic factors are

included.These results show that the forcings included are

sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do not

exclude the possibility that other forcings may also have

contributed. Similar results to those in (b) are obtained

with other models with anthropogenic forcing. Source:

IPCC (2001d).

Graphics and Photography Source Information CANNEX

191
Annex C. Graphics and Photography Source Information Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Figure 5-1: Conceptualization of the global water cycle and its

interactions with all other components of the Earth-climate system.

The figure illustrates the transport and transformation of water

within the Earth system, and the distribution of freshwater over the

Earth’s surface.The cycling of water in the Earth system involves

water in all three of its phases: solid (snow, ice), liquid (precipitation,

the oceans, land water bodies, groundwater, rivers/lakes, etc.), and

gaseous (atmospheric water vapor, fluxes between the atmosphere

and the land surface in the form of evaporation, evapotranspiration

from vegetation, and evaporation from the oceans).The water cycle

operates on a continuum of time and space scales and exchanges

large amounts of energy as water undergoes phase changes and is

moved dynamically from one part of the Earth system to another.

The energy exchanges involving water in all its phases include

interactions with radiation and dynamics of the atmospheric

circulation; together, they intertwine the water and energy cycles

of the Earth system. Source: Paul Houser and Adam Schlosser,

NASA GSFC.

Figure 5-3: Observational evidence showing the effect of aerosols

on cloud formation and precipitation processes.TRMM Visible and

Infrared Scanner (VIRS) paints yellow pollution tracks in the clouds

over South Australia due to reduced droplet size (Area 2).The

TRMM Precipitation Radar shows precipitation as white patches

only outside the pollution tracks (Areas 1 and 3).TRMM

Microwave Imager (TMI) data (not shown) indicated ample water in

the polluted clouds.The effective droplet radius retrieved by

TRMM VIRS does not exceed 14 μm in polluted clouds within

Area 2, lending credence to the hypothesis that pollution causes

effective cloud water droplet size to drop below this precipitation

threshold. Source: NASA GSFC (research results from Daniel

Rosenfield,The Hebrew University of Jerusalem).

Figure 5-5: Factors affecting the predictability of precipitation in

summer (June, July, and August).The influence on the predictability

of precipitation is shown for (a) sea surface temperature (SST) alone

and (b) both SST and land surface moisture state.The values of the

predictability index were determined through an analysis of an

ensemble of multi-decade atmospheric general circulation model

simulations.The plotted precipitation predictability index varies

from 0 to 1. Areas with values close to 1 indicate that precipitation

is strongly determined by SST (and/or soil moisture), and is thus

“predictable” on seasonal time scales if the SSTs (and soil moisture)

themselves are predictable; whereas values close to 0 indicate that a

foreknowledge of these fields may not lead to useful seasonal

precipitation predictions. In the latter areas (values close to 0),

nonlinear turbulent atmospheric processes would appear to

dominate over SST (or soil moisture) control. Source: R.D. Koster,

M. Suarez, and M. Heiser, NASA.

Figure 6-2: Forest cover increase and abandonment of marginal

agricultural lands in Grand Traverse County, Michigan. Analyses of

the upper midwestern United States show an increase in forest cover

since 1970.This increase results in greater carbon sequestration

because forest cover is primarily replacing pastures and croplands.

The left image illustrates land-use change by parcel interpreted

from aerial photographs. Green colors are forest, beige/yellow

agriculture, and pink color residential development.The right

image is forest cover from Landsat MSS satellite images. Green is

forest and light yellow not forest.The images illustrate the forest

regrowth that is occurring across the Upper Midwest concurrently

with parcel fragmentation, agricultural abandonment, and rural

residential development. Source: School of Natural Resources and

Environment, University of Michigan.

Figure 6-3: Land-cover change in eastern U.S. ecosystems, 1973-

2000. An analysis of land-use and land-cover change in eastern U.S.

ecological regions provides evidence of distinctive regional variation

in the rates and characteristics of changes. USGS, in cooperation

with EPA and NASA, used Landsat images from 5 years (1973,

1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000) to map the rates of ecoregion change

in each time interval (portrayed in ecoregion color), and the primary

land-cover transformations (portrayed in the pie charts). Land cover

of approximately 20 percent of the land in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal

Plain and Southeastern Plain changed during the nearly 30-year

period due to the rapid, cyclic harvesting and replanting of forests.

The adjacent Piedmont region also showed substantial change in

forest cover. Urbanization was the dominant conversion in the

Northern Piedmont and Atlantic Coast Pine Barrens.The two

Appalachian regions studied (Blue Ridge and North Central

Appalachia) had comparatively low overall change, with the primary

transformations being urban development and forest conversion,

respectively. Source: USGS EROS Data Center.

Figure 6-4:The map on the left is a true reflection of land use

types as of 1994 in the seven-county area of central Maryland and

the map on the right is the predicted distribution of land use types

based on a ‘polycentric’ city model. Comparing the two maps, one

sees remarkable similarity in commercial, high, and medium densities,

but disagreement in the low density residential category. This

finding is important because it is this fragmented, low density

residential development that is consuming a disproportionate

amount of open space and is causing high public service costs and

possibly large environmental costs. Models with better projections

of this type of development will better support development-related

decisionmaking.Work is being done with grants from NASA to

develop models that can predict this type of development. Source:

Nancy Bockstael, University of Maryland.

Figure 6-5: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), climatic

variation, and fire disturbance play substantial roles in the historical

carbon dynamics of Alaska. Analyses of stand-age distribution in

Alaska indicate that fire has likely become less frequent compared

to the first half of the 20th century.The contemporary stand-age

distribution of forest in interior Alaska is reproduced by assuming

that fire return interval (FRI) prior to 1950 was 55% of FRI since

1950. Logging associated with the gold rush appears to be responsible

for the discrepancy between observed and simulated for stands that

are approximately 100 years old. Application of the Terrestrial

Ecosystem Model indicates that regrowth under a less frequent fire

regime leads to substantial carbon storage in the state between 1980

and 1989. Source: David McGuire and Dave Verbyla, University of

Alaska, Fairbanks.

Figure 7-1:The global carbon cycle. Storages [in petagrams carbon

(PgC)] and fluxes (in PgC yr-1) of carbon for the major components

of the Earth’s carbon cycle are estimated for the 1990s.The carbon

storage and flux figures are from the IPCC’s Third Assessment

192
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Annex C. Graphics and Photography Source Information

Report (IPCC, 2001a). Carbon is exchanged among the atmosphere,

oceans, and land, and, more slowly, with sediments and sedimentary

rocks.The natural cycling of carbon within the Earth system is

fundamental to the capture and storage of the energy that fuels life

and human societies and to regulating the climate of the planet. In

this figure, the components are simplified and average values are

presented.There is strong evidence of significant year-to-year

fluctuations in many of the key fluxes (see, e.g., Figure 7-3), which

this static view cannot portray. Source: Graphic courtesy of David

Schimel and Lisa Dilling, NCAR; it is updated from UCAR, 2000:

The Carbon Cycle [Wigley T. and D. Schimel (eds.)]. Cambridge

University Press, New York, NY, 292 pp. Figure update courtesy of

D. Schimel and L. Dilling, NCAR.

Figure 7-3: Rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 and fossil-fuel

emissions.The upper curve shows the annual global amount of

carbon added to the atmosphere (in PgC yr-1) in the form of CO2

by burning coal, oil, and natural gas.The strongly varying curve

shows the annual rate of increase of carbon in the atmosphere based

on measurements, originally at Mauna Loa Observatory, and later at

a global network of monitoring sites.The difference between the

two curves represents the total net amount of CO2 absorbed each

year by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. Source: CMDL,

2002: Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Summary Report

26, 2000-2001 [King, D.B., et al. (eds.)]. Climate Monitoring and

Diagnostics Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado.

Figure 7-4: Map showing the climatological mean annual distribution

of net sea-air CO2 flux (moles CO2 m-2 yr-1) over the global oceans

in a reference year 1995.The blue-magenta areas indicate that the

ocean is a sink for atmospheric CO2, and the yellow-red areas, a

source.The annual CO2 uptake by the oceans has been estimated to

be in the range of 1.5 to 2.1 PgC.This map has been constructed

on the basis of about 1.4 million measurements of partial pressure

of CO2 (pCO2) in surface waters made during the past 40 years.

The sea-air pCO2 difference is computed using atmospheric CO2

concentrations from the GLOBALVIEW-CO2 data set compiled by

CMDL/NOAA.The monthly net sea-air CO2 flux in each 4° x 5°

pixel area has been estimated using the NCEP 41-mean wind speed

at 10 meters. Source: After Takahashi et al. (2002). Reference:

Takahashi,T., Sutherland, S.C., Sweeney, C., Poison, A., Metzl, N.,

Tilbrook, B., Bates, N.,Wanninkhof, R., Feely, R.A., Sabine, C.,

Olafsson, J., and Nojiri,Y., 2002: Global sea-air CO2 flux based on

climatological surface ocean pCO2, and seasonal biological and

temperature effects. Deep Sea Research II, 49, 1601-1622.

Figure 7-5: Soil processes influence carbon sequestration and

transport.The dynamics of carbon transformations and transport in

soil are complex and can result in sequestration in the soil as organic

matter or in groundwater as dissolved carbonates, increased emissions

of CO2 to the atmosphere, or export of carbon in various forms

into aquatic systems. Source: DOE, 1999: Carbon Sequestration

Research and Development [Reichle, D., J. Houghton, B. Kane, J.

Ekmann (eds.), S. Benson, J. Clarke, R. Dahlman, G. Hendrey, H.

Herzog, J. Hunter-Cevera, G. Jacobs, R. Judkins, J. Ogden, A.

Palmisano, R. Socolow, J. Stringer,T. Surles, A.Wolsky, N.

Woodward, and M.York]. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge,TN.

Figure 9-2: Possible pathways of public health impacts from climate

change. Source: Adapted from Patz and Balbus, 1996: Methods for

assessing public health vulnerability to climate change. Climate

Research, 6, 113-125.

Figure 12-1a:Three-dimensional representation of the latitudinal

distribution of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the marine

boundary layer.The data are from the NOAA Climate Monitoring

and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) cooperative air sampling

network.The surface represents data smoothed in time and latitude.

Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA CMDL Carbon

Cycle Greenhouse Gases, Boulder, Colorado.

Figure 12-1b:The NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse

Gases group operates four measurement programs. In situ

measurements are made at the CMDL baseline observatories:

Barrow, Alaska; Mauna Loa, Hawaii;Tutuila, American Samoa; and

South Pole, Antarctica.The cooperative air sampling network

includes samples from fixed sites and commercial ships.

Measurements from tall towers and aircraft began in 1992.

Presently, atmospheric CO2, methane, carbon monoxide, hydrogen,

nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, and the stable isotopes of CO2

and methane are measured. Source: Pieter Tans, NOAA CMDL

Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases, Boulder, Colorado.

Figure 12-2:The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hydro-Climatic

Data Network (HCDN) was compiled in 1988 and included 854

gauges that were active and had at least 36 years of record. Stations

that are still active are shown in green. Stations discontinued since

1988 are shown in red.These stations would have at least 50 years

of record as of 2002 if they had been kept in operation. HCDN is a

subset of the USGS stream gauge network that includes continuous

long-record stations that have relatively accurate records and are

relatively free of overt regulation or diversions. Source:William

Kirby, Global Hydroclimatology Program, USGS.

Appendix 12.1: Adapted from Unninayar, S. and R.A. Schiffer,

2002: Earth Observing Systems. In: Encyclopedia of Global

Environmental Change,Volume 1:The Earth System: Physical and Chemical

Dimensions of Global Environmental Change [MacCracken, M.C. and

J. S. Perry (eds.)]. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, United

Kingdom, pp. 61-81.

193
Acclimatization

The physiological adaptation to climatic variations.

Biologically, acclimation is a physiological (phenotypic)

adjustment by an organism to an environmental change

(distinguished from adaptation, which is genotypic).

Adaptation

Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing

environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or

moderates negative effects.

Adaptive capacity

The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including

climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential

damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope

with the consequences.

Adaptive management 

Operational decisions principally for managing entities that

are influenced by climate variability and change.

Adaptive management decisions

Operational decisions, principally for managing entities that

are influenced by climate variability and change.These decisions

can apply to the management of infrastructure (e.g., a waste

water treatment plant), the integrated management of a

natural resource (e.g., a watershed), or the operation of

societal response mechanisms (e.g., health alerts, water

restrictions). Adaptive management operates within existing

policy frameworks or uses existing infrastructure, and the

decisions usually occur on time scales of a year or less. See

policy decisions.

Aerosols

Airborne solid or liquid particles, with a typical size

between 0.01 and 10 μm that reside in the atmosphere for

at least several hours. Aerosols may be of either natural or

anthropogenic origin. Aerosols may influence climate in two

ways: directly through scattering and absorbing radiation,

and indirectly through acting as condensation nuclei for

cloud formation or modifying the optical properties and

lifetime of clouds.

Albedo

The fraction of solar radiation reflected by a surface or

object, often expressed as a percentage. Snow-covered

surfaces have a high albedo; the albedo of soil ranges from

high to low; vegetation-covered surfaces and oceans have a

low albedo.The Earth’s albedo varies mainly through varying

cloudiness, snow, ice, leaf area, and land-cover changes.

Assessments

Processes that involve analyzing and evaluating the state of

scientific knowledge (and the associated degree of scientific

certainty) and, in interaction with users, developing

information applicable to a particular set of issues or decisions.

Atmosphere

The gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth.The dry

atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1%

volume mixing ratio) and oxygen (20.9% volume mixing

ratio), together with a number of trace gases such as argon

(0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium, and radiatively active

greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035% volume

mixing ratio) and ozone. In addition, the atmosphere contains

water vapor, whose amount is highly variable but typically

1% volume mixing ratio.The atmosphere also contains

clouds and aerosols.

Attribution

See detection and attribution.

Biosphere

The part of the Earth system comprising all ecosystems and

living organisms in the atmosphere, on land (terrestrial

biosphere), or in the oceans (marine biosphere), including

derived dead organic matter such as litter, soil organic

matter, and oceanic detritus.

Carbon cycle

The term used to describe the flow of carbon [in various

forms such as carbon dioxide (CO2), organic matter, and

carbonates] through the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial

biosphere, and lithosphere.

Climate

Climate can be defined as the statistical description in terms

of the mean and variability of relevant measures of the

atmosphere-ocean system over periods of time ranging

from weeks to thousands or millions of years.

Climate change

A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of

the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended

period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be

due to natural internal processes or to external forcing,

including changes in solar radiation and volcanic eruptions,

or to persistent human-induced changes in atmospheric

composition or in land use. See also climate variability.

Climate feedback

An interaction among processes in the climate system in

which a change in one process triggers a secondary process

that influences the first one. A positive feedback intensifies

the change in the original process, and a negative feedback

reduces it.

Climate model

A numerical representation of the climate system based on

Glossary of Terms

194

D ANNEX

*Italicized words or phrases within definitions cross-reference to

other glossary terms.
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Annex D. Glossary of Terms

the physical, chemical, and biological properties of its components,

their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for all or

some of its known properties.The climate system can be represented

by models of varying complexity—that is, for any one component

or combination of components a “hierarchy” of models can be

identified, differing in such aspects as the number of spatial

dimensions, the extent to which physical, chemical or biological

processes are explicitly represented, or the level at which empirical

parametrizations are involved. Coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice

general circulation models provide a comprehensive representation

of the climate system.There is an evolution towards more complex

models with active chemistry and biology. Climate models are

applied, as a research tool, to study and simulate the climate, but

also for operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal, and

interannual climate predictions.

Climate scenario

A plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate,

based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships,

that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential

consequences of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input

to impact models. Climate projections often serve as the raw material

for constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually

require additional information such as about the observed current

climate. A “climate change scenario” is the difference between a

climate scenario and the current climate.

Climate sensitivity

In IPCC assessments, “equilibrium climate sensitivity” refers to the

equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature following a

doubling of the atmospheric (equivalent) CO2 concentration. More

generally, equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium

change in surface air temperature following a unit change in radiative

forcing (°C/Wm-2). In practice, the evaluation of the equilibrium

climate sensitivity requires very long simulations with coupled

general circulation models.The “effective climate sensitivity” is a

related measure that circumvents this requirement. It is evaluated

from model output for evolving non-equilibrium conditions. It is a

measure of the strengths of the feedbacks at a particular time and

may vary with forcing history and climate state. See also climate

model.

Climate system

The highly complex system consisting of five major components:

the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the land surface, and

the biosphere, and the interactions among them.The climate system

evolves in time under the influence of its own internal dynamics

and because of external forcings such as volcanic eruptions, solar

variations, and human-induced forcings such as the changing

composition of the atmosphere and land-use change.

Climate variability

Variations in the mean state and other statistics of climatic features

on temporal and spatial scales beyond those of individual weather

events.These often are due to internal processes within the climate

system. Examples of cyclical forms of climate variability include

El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation

(NAO), and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV). See also climate

change.

Critical dependencies 

Topics within the Strategic Plan for which progress in one research

element is only possible if related research is first completed in

other areas.

Cryosphere

The component of the climate system consisting of all snow, ice, and

permafrost on and beneath the surface of the Earth and ocean.

Decision support

The provision of timely and useful information that addresses

specific questions. See also decision support resources.

Decision support resources

The set of observations, analyses, interdisciplinary research products,

communication mechanisms, and operational services that provide

timely and useful information to address questions confronting

policymakers, resource managers, and other users. See also decision

support.

Detection and attribution

Climate varies continually on all time scales. Detection of climate

change is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in

some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that

change. Attribution of causes of climate change is the process of

establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with

some defined level of confidence.

Ecosystem

A community (i.e., an assemblage of populations of plants, animals,

fungi, and microorganisms that live in an environment and interact

with one another, forming together a distinctive living system with its

own composition, structure, environmental relations, development,

and function) and its environment treated together as a functional

system of complementary relationships and transfer and circulation

of energy and matter.

Ecosystem goods and services

Through numerous biological, chemical, and physical processes,

ecosystems provide both goods and services to humanity. Goods

include food, feed, fiber, fuel, pharmaceutical products, and wildlife.

Services include maintenance of hydrologic cycles, cleansing of

water and air, regulation of climate and weather, storage and cycling

of nutrients, and provision of beauty and inspiration. Many goods

pass through markets, but services rarely do.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

El Niño, in its original sense, is a warmwater current that periodically

flows along the coast of Ecuador and Peru, disrupting the local

fishery.This oceanic event is associated with a fluctuation of the

intertropical surface pressure pattern and circulation in the Indian

and Pacific Oceans, called the Southern Oscillation.This coupled

atmosphere-ocean phenomenon is collectively known as El NiñoSouthern Oscillation. During an El Niño event, the prevailing trade

winds weaken and the equatorial countercurrent strengthens,

causing warm surface waters in the Indonesian area to flow eastward

to overlie the cold waters of the Peru current.This event has great

impact on the wind, sea surface temperature, and precipitation

patterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic effects throughout the

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Annex D. Glossary of Terms Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Pacific region and in many other parts of the world.The opposite of

an El Niño event is called La Niña.

Emissions

In the climate change context, emissions refer to the release of

greenhouse gases and/or their precursors and aerosols into the

atmosphere over a specified area and period of time.

Emissions scenario

A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of

substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g., greenhouse

gases, aerosols), based on a coherent and internally consistent set

of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and

socio-economic development, technological change) and their key

relationships. Concentration scenarios, derived from emissions

scenarios, are used as input into a climate model to compute climate

projections.

Evapotranspiration

The combined process of evaporation from the Earth’s surface and

transpiration from vegetation.

External forcing

See climate system.

Extreme weather event

An extreme weather event is an event that is rare within its statistical

reference distribution at a particular place. Definitions of “rare”

vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as

or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By definition, the

characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary from

place to place. An extreme climate event is an average of a number

of weather events over a certain period of time, an average which is

itself extreme (e.g., rainfall over a season).

Feedback

See climate feedback.

Full carbon accounting

Complete accounting of all carbon stocks and changes in them for

all carbon pools related to a given spatial area in a given time period.

Global change

Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate,

land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric

chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the

Earth to sustain life (from the Global Change Research Act of 1990,

PL 101-606).

Global change research

Study, monitoring,assessment, prediction, and information management

activities to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical,

and biological processes that regulate the total Earth system; the

unique environment that the Earth provides for life; changes that

are occurring in the Earth system; and the manner in which such

system, environment, and changes are influenced by human actions.

Greenhouse gas

Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere,

both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at

specific wavelengths within the spectrum of infrared radiation

emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere, and clouds.This

property causes the greenhouse effect.Water vapor (H2O), carbon

dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and ozone

(O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Moreover there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse

gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons and other chlorineand bromine-containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal

Protocol.

Human system

Any system in which human organizations play a major role. Often,

but not always, the term is synonymous with “society” or “social

system” (e.g., agricultural system, political system, technological

system, economic system).

Hydrosphere

The component of the climate system composed of liquid surface and

subterranean water, such as oceans, seas, rivers, freshwater lakes,

underground water, etc.

(Climate) Impact assessment

The practice of identifying and evaluating the detrimental and

beneficial consequences of climate change on natural and human systems.

(Climate) Impacts

Consequences of climate change on natural and human systems.

Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish

between potential impacts and residual impacts.

• Potential impacts: All impacts that may occur given a projected

change in climate, without considering adaptation.

• Residual impacts:The impacts of climate change that would

occur after adaptation.

Information

Knowledge derived from study, experience, or instruction.

Integrated assessment

A method of analysis that combines results and models from the

physical, biological, economic, and social sciences, and the interactions

between these components, in a consistent framework, to evaluate

the status and the consequences of environmental change and the

policy responses to it.

Land cover

The vegetation and artificial built-up materials covering the land

surface.This includes areas of vegetation (forests, shrublands, crops,

deserts, lawns), bare soil, developed surfaces (paved land, buildings),

and wet areas and bodies of water (watercourses, wetlands).

Land use

The total of arrangements, activities, and inputs undertaken in a

certain land cover type (a set of human actions).The social and

economic purposes for which land is managed (e.g., grazing, timber

extraction, and conservation).

Land-use change

A change in the use or management of land by humans, which may

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Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Annex D. Glossary of Terms

lead to a change in land cover. Land cover and land-use change may

have an impact on the albedo, evapotranspiration, sources, and sinks

of greenhouse gases, or other properties of the climate system, and may

thus have an impact on climate, locally or globally.

Lifetime 

Lifetime is a general term used for various time scales

characterizing the rate of processes affecting the concentration

of trace gases. In general, lifetime denotes the average length of

time that an atom or molecule spends in a given reservoir, such as

the atmosphere or oceans.The following lifetimes may be

distinguished:

• “Turnover time” (T) or “atmospheric lifetime” is the ratio of

the mass M of a reservoir (e.g., a gaseous compound in the

atmosphere) and the total rate of removal S from the reservoir:

T = M/S. For each removal process separate turnover times can

be defined.

• “Adjustment time,” “response time,” or “perturbation lifetime”

(Ta) is the time scale characterizing the decay of an instantaneous

pulse input into the reservoir.The term adjustment time is also

used to characterize the adjustment of the mass of a reservoir

following a step change in the source strength. Half-life or decay

constant is used to quantify a first-order exponential decay

process. See response time for a different definition pertinent to

climate variations.The term “lifetime” is sometimes used, for

simplicity, as a surrogate for “adjustment time.”

In simple cases, where the global removal of the compound is

directly proportional to the total mass of the reservoir, the adjustment

time equals the turnover time:T = Ta.An example is CFC-11

which is removed from the atmosphere only by photochemical

processes in the stratosphere. In more complicated cases, where several

reservoirs are involved or where the removal is not proportional to

the total mass, the equality T = Ta no longer holds. CO2 is an

extreme example. Its turnover time is only about 4 years because of

the rapid exchange between atmosphere and the ocean and terrestrial

biota. However, a large part of that CO2 is returned to the atmosphere

within a few years.Thus, the adjustment time of CO2 in the

atmosphere is actually determined by the rate of removal of carbon

from the surface layer of the oceans into its deeper layers. Although

an approximate value of 100 years may be given for the adjustment

time of CO2 in the atmosphere, the actual adjustment is faster initially

and slower later on. In the case of CH4, the adjustment time is

different from the turnover time, because the removal is mainly

through a chemical reaction with the hydroxyl radical OH, the

concentration of which itself depends on the CH4 concentration.

Therefore the CH4 removal S is not proportional to its total

mass M.

Mitigation (climate change)

An intervention to reduce the causes of change in climate.This

could include approaches devised to reduce emissions of greenhouse

gases to the atmosphere; to enhance their removal from the

atmosphere through storage in geological formations, soils, biomass,

or the ocean; or to alter incoming solar radiation through several

“geo-engineering” options.

Mitigative capacity

The social, political, and economic structures and conditions that

are required for effective mitigation.

Monitoring

A scientifically designed system of continuing standardized

measurements and observations and the evaluation thereof.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

The North Atlantic Oscillation consists of opposing variations of

barometric pressure near Iceland and near the Azores. On average, a

westerly current, between the Icelandic low pressure area and the

Azores high pressure area, carries cyclones with their associated

frontal systems towards Europe. However, the pressure difference

between Iceland and the Azores fluctuates on time scales of days to

decades, and can be reversed at times. It is the dominant mode of

winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region, ranging from

central North America to Europe.

Observations

Standardized measurements (either continuing or episodic) of

variables in climate and related systems.

Parameterization

In climate models, this term refers to the technique of representing

processes that cannot be explicitly resolved at the spatial or temporal

resolution of the model (sub-grid-scale processes), by relationships

between the area- or time-averaged effect of such sub-grid-scale

processes and the larger scale flow.

Place-based

Related to the locus (regional, sectoral, cultural) of a particular

object or action (e.g., place-based decisions).

Planning

A process inherently important for both policy decisions and adaptive

management. It usually occurs in the framework of established or

projected policy options.

Policy decisions

Decisions that result in laws, regulations, or other public actions.

These decisions are typically made in government settings (federal,

state, local) by elected or appointed officials.These decisions, which

usually involve balancing competing value issues, can be assisted

by—but not specified by—scientific analyses. See adaptive

management decisions.

Prediction (climate)

A probabilistic description or forecast of a future climate outcome

based on observations of past and current climatological conditions

and quantitative models of climate processes (e.g., a prediction of

an El Niño event).

Projection (climate)

A description of the response of the climate system to an assumed

level of future radiative forcing. Changes in radiative forcing may be

due to either natural sources (e.g., volcanic emissions) or humaninduced causes (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or

changes in land use and land cover). Climate “projections” are

distinguished from climate “predictions” in order to emphasize that

climate projections depend on scenarios of future socioeconomic,

technological, and policy developments that may or may not be

realized.

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Annex D. Glossary of Terms Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Radiative forcing 

A process that directly changes the average energy balance of the

Earth-atmosphere system by affecting the balance between incoming

solar radiation and outgoing or “back” radiation. A positive forcing

tends to warm the surface of the Earth and a negative forcing tends

to cool the surface.

Rapid climate change

The non-linearity of the climate system may lead to rapid climate

change, sometimes called abrupt events or even surprises. Some such

abrupt events may be imaginable, such as a dramatic reorganization

of the thermohaline circulation, rapid deglaciation, or massive

melting of permafrost leading to fast changes in the carbon cycle.

Others may be truly unexpected, as a consequence of a strong,

rapidly changing, forcing of a non-linear system.

Regional reanalysis

The process of “freezing” or holding constant a recent version of

a regional climate or weather model with the latest process

representations and assimilation capabilities, and rerunning that

model with historical satellite and in situ data sets to generate

products for the period covered by the historic records.This process

allows climatological analyses to be carried out using the best

consistent data products possible.

Resilience

The ability of an organism or other entity to recover from or to

adjust easily to change or other stress.

Response time

The response time or adjustment time is the time needed for the

climate system or its components to re-equilibrate to a new state,

following a forcing resulting from external and internal processes

or feedbacks. It is very different for various components of the climate

system.The response time of the troposphere is relatively short, from

days to weeks, whereas the stratosphere comes into equilibrium on a

time scale of typically a few months. Due to their large heat capacity,

the oceans have a much longer response time, typically decades, but

up to centuries or millennia.The response time of the strongly

coupled surface-troposphere system is, therefore, slow compared to

that of the stratosphere, and mainly determined by the oceans.The

biosphere may respond fast (e.g., to droughts), but also very slowly

to imposed changes. See lifetime for a different definition of

response time pertinent to the rate of processes affecting the

concentration of trace gases.

Scenario

A coherent description of a potential future situation that serves as

input to more detailed analyses or modeling. Scenarios are tools to

explore, “if ..., then...” statements, and are not predictions of or

prescriptions for the future. See climate scenario and emissions scenario.

Sensitivity

Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either

adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli.The effect may

be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the

mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages

caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to

sea-level rise). See also climate sensitivity.

Sequential decisionmaking

Stepwise decisionmaking aiming to identify short-term strategies

in the face of long-term uncertainties, by incorporating

additional information over time and making mid-course

corrections.

Sequestration

The process of increasing the carbon content of a carbon reservoir

other than the atmosphere. Biological approaches to sequestration

include direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere through landuse change, afforestation, reforestation, and practices that enhance

soil carbon in agriculture. Physical approaches include separation

and disposal of CO2 from flue gases or from processing fossil fuels

to produce hydrogen- and CO2-rich fractions and long-term storage

in underground depleted oil and gas reservoirs, coal seams, and

saline aquifers.

Sink

Any process, activity, or mechanism that removes a greenhouse gas,

an aerosol, or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol from the

atmosphere.

Socio-economic potential

The socio-economic potential represents the level of greenhouse

gas mitigation that would be approached by overcoming social

and cultural obstacles to the use of technologies that are

cost-effective.

Source

Any process, activity, or mechanism that releases a greenhouse gas, an

aerosol, or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol into the

atmosphere.

Spatial and temporal scales

Climate may vary on a large range of spatial and temporal scales.

Spatial scales may range from local (less than 100,000 km2),

through regional (100,000 to 10 million km2) to continental

(10 to 100 million km2).Temporal scales may range from seasonal

to geological (up to hundreds of millions of years).

Stabilization

The achievement of stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of

one or more greenhouse gases.

Stakeholders

Individuals or groups whose interests (financial, cultural, valuebased, or other) are affected by climate variability, climate change, or

options for adapting to or mitigating these phenomena.

Stakeholders are important partners with the research community

for development of decision support resources.

Stratosphere

The highly stratified region of the atmosphere above the troposphere

extending from about 10 km (ranging from 9 km in high latitudes

to 16 km in the tropics on average) to about 50 km.

System

Integration of interrelated, interacting, or interdependent components

into a complex whole.

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Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Annex D. Glossary of Terms

Technology

A piece of equipment or a technique for performing a particular

activity.

Technology transfer

The broad set of processes that cover the exchange of knowledge,

money, and goods among different stakeholders that lead to the

spreading of technology for adapting to or mitigating climate change.

As a generic concept, the term is used to encompass both diffusion

of technologies and technological cooperation across and within

countries.

Time scale

Characteristic time for a process to be expressed. Since many

processes exhibit most of their effects early, and then have a long

period during which they gradually approach full expression, for

the purpose of this report the time scale is numerically defined as

the time required for a perturbation in a process to show at least

half of its final effect.

Troposphere

The lowest part of the atmosphere from the surface to about 10 km

in altitude in mid-latitudes (ranging from 9 km in high latitudes to

16 km in the tropics on average) where clouds and “weather”

phenomena occur. In the troposphere, temperatures generally

decrease with height.

Uncertainty

An expression of the degree to which a value (e.g., the future state

of the climate system) is unknown. Uncertainty can result from lack

of information or from disagreement about what is known or even

knowable. It may have many types of sources, from quantifiable

errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology,

or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can

therefore be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a range of

values calculated by various models) or by qualitative statements

(e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts).

Vulnerability 

The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope

with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability

and extremes.Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude,

and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its

sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Weather

The specific condition of the atmosphere at a particular place

and time. It is measured in terms of parameters such as wind,

temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness, and

precipitation.

199
ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

ACRIM Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance

Monitor

ACSYS Arctic Climate System Study

AMIP Atmospheric Model Intercomparison

Project

AMSR Advanced Microwave Scanning

Radiometer

AOSB Arctic Ocean Sciences Board

APN Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change

Research 

AQRS Air Quality Research Subcommittee

ARM Atmospheric Radiation Measurement

ASOF Arctic and Subarctic Ocean Fluxes Study 

ATBD Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document

AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution

Radiometer

BAHC Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological

Cycle (IGBP core project)

BER Biological and Environmental Research

CAP Climate Action Partnership

CART Cloud Atmospheric Radiation Testbed

CCCSTI Committee on Climate Change Science

Science and Technology Integration

CCGG Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases

CCRI Climate Change Research Initiative

CCSM Community Climate System Model

CCSP Climate Change Science Program

CCSPO Climate Change Science Program Office

CCTP Climate Change Technology Program

CDC Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention

CDR Climate Data Record

CDST Climate Data Science Team

CEOP Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period

CEOS Committee on Earth Observation

Satellites

CEQ Council on Environmental Quality

CERES Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy

System

CFC chlorofluorocarbon

CGIAR Consultative Group on International

Agricultural Research

CH3SCH3 dimethyl sulfide

CH4 methane

CliC Climate and Cryosphere 

CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability

CMDL Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics

Laboratory

CMI Common Modeling Infrastructure

CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

CO carbon monoxide

CO2 carbon dioxide

COLA Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

CONCAUSA Central American-United States of

America Joint Accord

CPT Climate Process and Modeling Team

DIF Directory Interchange Format

DIS Data and Information System 

DL Digital Library

DMWG Data Management Working Group

DOC Department of Commerce

DOD Department of Defense

DOE Department of Energy

DOI Department of the Interior

DOS Department of State

DOT Department of Transportation

DPC Domestic Policy Council

EMF Energy Modeling Forum

ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation

EOS Earth Observing System

EPA Environmental Protection Agency

ESA European Space Agency

ESG Earth System Grid

ESMF Earth System Modeling Framework

ESS-P Earth System Science Partnership

EU European Union

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FAQ Frequently Asked Question

FCS Fire-Climate-Society

FEWS NET Famine Early Warning System Network

FGDC Federal Geographic Data Clearinghouse

FRI Fire Return Interval

GACC Geographic Area Coordination Center

GAW Global Atmosphere Watch Programme

GCM general circulation model

GCMD Global Change Master Directory

GCP Global Carbon Project

GCOS Global Climate Observing System

GCTE Global Climate and Terrestrial Ecosystems

GECAFS Global Environmental Change and Food

Systems 

GEF Global Environment Facility

GEOHAB Global Ecology and Oceanography of

Harmful Algal Bloom

GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle

Experiment

GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

GHG greenhouse gas

GIS geographic information system

GLOBEC Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics

GOFC-GOLD Global Observation of Forest Cover and

Global Observations of Land Cover

Dynamics

GOIN Global Observation Information Network

GOOS Global Ocean Observing System

GOS Global Observing System

GPM Global Precipitation Measurement

GSFC Goddard Space Flight Center

GSN GCOS Surface Network

GTOS Global Terrestrial Observing System

GUAN GCOS Upper-Air Network

Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Units

200

EANNEX
Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Annex E.Acronyms,Abbreviations, and Units

GWS Global Water System

HAB harmful algal bloom

HCDN Hydro-Climatic Data Network

HCFC hydrochlorofluorocarbon

HECRTF High-End Computing Revitalization Task Force

HELP Hydrology for Environment, Life, and Policy 

HFC hydrofluorocarbon

HHS Department of Health and Human Services

HLC High-Level Consultations on Climate Change

HPS hantavirus pulmonary syndrome

HRDLS High-Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder

HSB Humidity Sounder for Brazil

IAI Inter-American Institute for Global Change

Research

IASC International Arctic Sciences Committee

ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions

IDN International Directory Network

IGAC International Global Atmospheric Chemistry

IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

IGFA International Group of Funding Agencies for

Global Change Research

IGOS International Global Observing Strategy

IGOS-P International Global Observing Strategy

Partnership

IHDP International Human Dimensions Programme

ILTER International Long-Term Ecological Research 

IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

IODP Integrated Ocean Drilling Program

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRC International Research and Cooperation

IRI International Research Institute for Climate

Prediction 

ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone

IWG Interagency Working Group

IWGCCST Interagency Working Group on Climate Change

Science and Technology Integration

JGOFS Joint Global Ocean Flux Study

LBA Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in

Amazonia

LOICZ Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone project

LUCC Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

MEXT Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and

Technology

MMV Measurement, Monitoring, and Verification

MODIS Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

MOPITT Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere 

MSS Multispectral Scanner

MSU Microwave Sounding Unit

N nitrogen

N2O nitrous oxide

NACIP National Aerosol–Climate Interactions Program

NACP North American Carbon Program

NAM northern hemisphere annular mode

NAO North Atlantic Oscillation

NAS National Academy of Sciences

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NASDA Japan’s National Space Development Agency

NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NEC National Economic Council

NEESPI Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership

Initiative

NERSC National Energy Research Scientific Computing

NGO Non-governmental organization

NH3 ammonia

NIEHS National Institute of Environmental Health

Sciences

NIH National Institutes of Health

NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOPP National Oceanographic Partnership Program

NOx nitrogen oxides

NPEO North Pole Environmental Observatory

NPOESS National Polar-Orbiting Operational

Environmental Satellite System

NRC National Research Council

NSC National Security Council

NSF National Science Foundation

O2 oxygen

O3 ozone

ODP Ocean Drilling Program

OH hydroxyl radical

OMB Office of Management and Budget

ONR Office of Naval Research

OSMEC Observing System Management Executive Council

OSOEC Observing System Operations Executive Council

OSSE Observation System Simulation Experiment

OSSEC Observing System Science Executive Council

OSTP Office of Science and Technology Policy

PAGES Past Global Changes 

PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index

PDV Pacific Decadal Variability

PFC perfluorocarbon

PMIP Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project

PNNL Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

RCM regional climate model

RESACs Regional Earth Science Applications Centers

RISA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments 

SAGE Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment

SAM southern hemisphere annular mode

SBSTA Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice

SCAR Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research

SCOR Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research

SeaWiFS Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor

SF6 sulfur hexafluoride

SGCR Subcommittee on Global Change Research

SGP Southern Great Plains

SO2 sulfur dioxide

SOLAS Surface Ocean–Lower Atmosphere Study

SPARC Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate

SSS sea surface salinity

SST sea surface temperature

START Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research, and

Training

SWAQ Sub-committee on Water Availability and Quality

TAV Tropical Atlantic Variability

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Annex E.Acronyms,Abbreviations, and Units Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

TISO Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillation

TM Thematic Mapper

TMI TRMM Microwave Imager

TOGA Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project

TOMS Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer

TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and

Cultural Organization

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change

USAID U.S. Agency for International Development

USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture

USGCRP U.S. Global Change Research Program

USGS U.S. Geological Survey

UV-B ultraviolet-B

VIRS Visible and Infrared Scanner

VOC volatile organic carbon

VAMOS Variability of the American Monsoon Systems

WCRP World Climate Research Programme

WDCS World Data Center System

WGCM Working Group on Coupled Modeling

WHO World Health Organization

WMO World Meteorological Organization

WOCE World Ocean Circulation Experiment

WRAP Water Resources Applications Project

WWW World Weather Watch

202

SI (Systéme Internationale) Units

Physical Quantity Name of Unit Symbol

length meter m

mass kilogram kg

time second s

thermodynamic temperature kelvin K

amount of substance mole mol

Special Names and Symbols for Certain SI-Derived Units

Physical Quantity Name of SI Unit Symbol for SI Unit Definition of Unit

force newton N kg m s-2

pressure pascal Pa kg m-1 s-2 (= Nm-2)

energy joule J kg m2 s-2

power watt W kg m2 s-3 (= Js-1)

frequency hertz Hz s-1 (cycle per second)

Decimal Fractions and Multiples of SI Units Having Special Names

Physical Quantity Name of Unit Symbol for Unit Definition of Unit

length ångstrom Å 10-10 m = 10-8cm

length micrometer μm 10-6m = μm

area hectare ha 104 m2

force dyne dyn 10-5 N

pressure bar bar 105 N m-2

pressure millibar mb 1hPa

weight ton t 103 kg

UNITS
James R. Mahoney, CCSP Director

Richard H. Moss, CCSPO Director

David M. Allen

Jeff Amthor

Susan K. Avery

James H. Butler

Margarita Conkright Gregg

David J. Dokken [TECHNICAL EDITOR]

Susanna Eden

Genene Fisher

Stephanie A. Harrington

Chester J. Koblinsky

David M. Legler

Sandy MacCracken

Jessica Orrego

Rick S. Piltz

Nicholas A. Sundt

Ahsha N.Tribble

Bud Ward

Robert C.Worrest

To obtain a copy of this document, contact:

Climate Change Science Program Office

1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW

Suite 250

Washington, DC 20006

202-223-6262 (voice)

202-223-3065 (fax)

information@climatescience.gov

http://www.climatescience.gov/

http://www.usgcrp.gov/

The Climate Change Science Program

incorporates the U.S. Global Change

Research Program and the Climate Change

Research Initiative.

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM OFFICE
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U.S. Climate Change Science Program

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+1.202.223.6262 (voice) • +1.202.223.3065 (fax)

http://www.climatescience.gov/