STATE OF CONNECTICUT 

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION 

October 14, 2009 

David Conroy, Air Branch Chief 

United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1 

One Congress Street, Suite 1100 

Boston, MA 02114-2023 

Re : 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration 

Revised RFP Calculations Including Banked Emission Reduction Credits 

Dear Mr. Conroy: 

On February 1, 2008, the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection (CTDEP) 

submitted an attainment demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard . In June of 2009, 

while reviewing that submittal, EPA Region 1 staff requested that CTDEP determine if emission 

estimates used to demonstrate reasonable further progress (RFP) incorporated the effects of 

banked emission reduction credits (ERC's) that were applicable during the RFP period (i .e ., 2002 

through 2008). 

After consulting with your technical staff and reviewing our records, CTDEP has determined that 

a small number of nitrogen oxides (NOx) ERC's are not accounted for in the RFP calculations . 

When NOx emission calculations are revised to include the ERC's, RFP continues to be easily 

demonstrated . The attached figures illustrate that inclusion of ERC's (Figure 1) has only minor 

impacts on the RFP calculations compared to the original RFP calculations (Figure 2) included 

with the February 2008 ozone attainment demonstration submittal. Thus, CTDEP's conclusion 

in the attainment demonstration that control programs provide for compliance with all reasonable 

further progress requirements remains valid. The enclosed technical analysis provides more 

detailed documentation of the impact that ERC's have on the RFP demonstration. 

CTDEP will ensure that ERC's are appropriately considered in future revisions to the State 

Implementation Plan. We are reviewing our trading policy and anticipate amendments in orders 

extended beyond May 2010. Please contact Paul Bodner at (860) 424-3383 with any questions 

regarding this information. 

Sincerely, 

QX"-X I-A. ' 

Anne Gobin, Chief 

Bureau of Air Management 

Attachment 

Enclosure 

(Printed on Recycled Paper) 

79 Elm Street 9 Hartford, CT 06106-5127 

www.ct.gov/dep 

An Equal Opportunity Employer 
Connecticut's 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration 

Revised Reasonable Further Progress Calculations 

to Account for Banked NOx Emission Reduction Credits 

October 2009 
Summary 

On February 1, 2008, the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection (CTDEP) 

submitted an attainment demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard . In June of 2009, 

while reviewing that submittal, EPA Region 1 staff requested that CTDEP determine if emission 

estimates used to demonstrate reasonable further progress (RFP) incorporated the effects of 

banked emission reduction credits (ERC's) that were applicable during the RFP period (i .e ., 2002 

through 2008). 

After consulting with EPA technical staff and reviewing internal records, CTDEP has 

determined that a small number of banked ERC's are not accounted for in the RFP calculations . 

When emission calculations are revised to include the ERC's, RFP continues to be easily 

demonstrated with a large surplus of emission reductions that are more than sufficient to also 

satisfy RFP contingency requirements. The attached figures illustrate on a statewide basis that 

inclusion of ERC's (Figure 1) has only minor impacts on the RFP calculations compared to the 

original RFP calculations (Figure 2) included with the February 2008 ozone attainment 

demonstration submittal. Thus, CTDEP's conclusion in the attainment demonstration that 

control programs provide for compliance with all reasonable further progress requirements 

remains valid. The following discussion and tables provide more detailed documentation on the 

impact that banked ERC's have on the revised RFP demonstration for each of Connecticut's 

nonattainment areas. 

Review ofWP Requirements 

EPA's Phase 2 Ozone Implementation Rule l requires moderate 8-hour ozone nonattainment 

areas (such as Greater Connecticut and Southwest Connecticut) to provide a demonstration of at 

least a 15% emission reduction between 2002 and 2008. The 15% reduction requirement can be 

satisfied with any combination of VOC and NOx reductions (e .g ., 10% VOC and 5% NOx 

reductions) . In order to demonstrate RFP, a region must show that its projected emissions, 

including growth and controls, of NOX and VOC will not exceed calculated "target levels" set 

for the end of the RFP period at levels that produce the required 15% reduction. For the 2002-

2008 RFP period, the "target levels" of emissions are the maximum quantity of anthropogenic 

emissions permissible during the 2008 projection year. 

Determination of Applicable ERC's 

CTDEP's regulations and policies recognize two types of NOx ERC's, discrete emission 

reduction credits (DERC's) and continuous emission reduction credits (CERC's). DERCs have a 

defined lifetime of five years, so any DERC's that existed in the base year of 2002 or earlier 

would have expired by the end of the RFP period in 2008 . Therefore, DERC's need not be 

considered in this analysis . CERC's initiated prior to or during the 2002 base year do need to be 

incorporated into the RFP recalculations because the associated credit stream extends 

indefinitely . CERC's initiated after the 2002 base year do not need to be considered because 

170 FR 71612. 
Figure 1 : Estimated Connecticut NOx Emissions 

Compared to 2008 RFP Statewide Target Level 

Accounting for Unused ERC's 

-- TQrat.,=,U4A_ 

RFP Target = 297.9 

Figure 2: Estimated Connecticut NOx Emissions 

Compared to 2008 RFP Statewide Target Level 

Not Accounting for Unused ERC's 

Actual Projected 

2002 2008 

400.0 .;.. 

r 

350.0 

'a 300.0 

d 

E 

c 

E W 

250.0 

.~~.,~ . . . 

Total = 249.7 

Total = 247.5 

Oct 2009 

Revisions to 

RFP Csicuiations 

a Unused 

NOx ERC's 

" Point NOx 

0 Area NOx 

N Non-Road NOx 

~` On-Road NOx 

Feb 2008 Ozone 

Attainment SIP 

RFP Caicuiations 

rr Point NOx 

Area NOx 

0 Non-Road NOx 

m, On-Road NOx 

Actual Projected 

2002 2008 
growth factors used to project 2002 emissions to 2008 inherently account for new and shutdown 

sources that occur during that time period . 

Table 1 provides a summary of pre-2002 base year NOx CERC's to be accounted for in the RFP 

recalculations . For the Southwest Connecticut area (Fairfield, New Haven and Middlesex 

Counties), it was determined that 770 tons/year (2 .1 tons/day) of CERCs must be added to both 

the 2002 base year and the 2008 projected inventories2 . For the Greater Connecticut area (the 

remainder of Connecticut), 195 tons/year (0.53 tons/day) must be incorporated into the 2002 

base year inventory and 45 tons/year (0.12 tons/day) into the 2008 projected inventory3. 

Revised RFP Demonstration 

Inclusion of the identified ERC's into the RFP demonstration involves calculation updates to 

both the 15% emission reduction target levels and future year projected emission levels . Revised 

target calculations for the Greater Connecticut (GrCT) and Southwest Connecticut (SWCT) areas 

are summarized in Tables 2 and 3, respectively. Revised projected emissions for 2008, 2009 and 

2012 are provided in Table 4. Complete descriptions of the calculation methodologies used for 

determining target levels and projected emissions are provided in the CTDEP's ozone attainment 

demonstration submittal 4 

Inclusion of applicable ERC's has only minor impacts on the RFP calculations . s Total 2002 base 

year anthropogenic NOx emissions increase from 145.5 to 146.0 tons/day for GrCT and from 

186.3 to 188.4 tons/day for SWCT. NOx target levels increase from 129 .5 to 130.0 tons/day for 

GrCT and from165 .9 to 167.9 tons/day for SWCT. Projected 2008 NOx emissions increase fro ~ 

129.5 to 130.0 tons/day for GrCT and from 165.9 to 167.9 tons/day for SWCT. « 

i 

As depicted in Table 4, the revised projections for 2008 remain significantly below the revised 

2008 target levels that represent compliance with RFP requirements. Furthermore, surplus /^ac.w ~ ~ . ~ 

reductions are more than sufficient to satisfy the 3% of base year RFP contingency requirement. ~~ 

Thus, CTDEP's conclusion that control measures in the 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration 

achieve sufficient emission reductions to meet all RFP requirements remains valid. 

z As indicated in the Notes column of Table 1, of the 770 tons/year of CERC's to be added to the 2002 inventory for 

Southwest Connecticut, 377.79 tons/year are included as off sets in permits for facilities that were not yet operating 

in 2008 and 392 tons/year are currently being banked for potential future use. 

3 As indicated in the Notes column of Table 1, of the 195 tons/year of CERC's to be added to the 2002 inventory for 

Greater Connecticut, 150 tons/year were transferred for use by a Rhode Island facility and 45 tons/year are currently 

being banked for potential future use. 

4 The inclusion of CERC's only impacts calculations for NOx, not VOC. Procedures for developing target emission 

levels and 2008 projected emission levels are described in detail in Sections 5.2 and 4.3, respectively of the 8-Hour 

Ozone Attainment Demonstration, submitted to EPA on February 1, 2008 (see : 

http ://www.ct.gov/dep/cwp/view.asp?a=2684&q=385886&depNav GID1619. 

5 Previous 2002 base year emission levels, target emission levels, and 2008 projected emission levels are presented 

in Tables 5 .2 .1 and 5.2 .2, Tables 5.2 .5 and 5.2 .6, and Tables 5 .3 .1 and 5.3 .2, respectively of the 8-Hour Ozone 

Attainment Demonstration, submitted to EPA on February 1, 2008 (see : 

http ://www.ct.%zov/dep/cwp/view.asp?a°2684&q=385886&depNav GID=1619. 
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Table 4: Comparison of 2008 Projected Emissions to Target Levels 

Summary of Greater Connecticut's Projected Emission Trends 2002 -2012 

(tons / summer aay) 

20 02 2008 20 09 20 12 

Greater 

Connecticut VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC NOx 

Stationary Point 4.6 19.6 4.6 18.9 4.6 18.0 4.6 18.2 

Stationary Area 75.5 6.4 69 .5 6.5 61 .6 5 .6 61 .0 5 .7 

On-Road Mobile 45.1 89.3 28 .5 54.3 26.3 49.2 19.8 34.8 

Non-Road Mobile 56.2 30.8 46.7 27.4 45.2 26 .4 42.3 23 .3 

Total 

Anthropogen ic 181 .4 146.1 149.3 107.1 137.8 99.2 127.7 82.0 

2008 RFP Target Emission Level: 159.4 130.0 (RFP Demonstrated) 

Summary of Southwest Connecticut's Projected Emission Trends 2002 -2012 

(tons / summer aay) 

2002 20 08 20 09 2012 

Southvvest 

Connecticut VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC NOx VOC NOx 

Stationary Point 11 .3 39.8 11 .8 40.4 11 .8 37.7 12.1 38.0 

Stationary Area 84 .1 7.2 76.6 7.4 69.4 6.6 68.6 6.7 

On-Road Mobile 48 .3 102.7 29.7 60.5 27.4 54.6 20.6 38.2 

Non-Road Mobile 66.0 38 .7 49.5 34.3 47.6 33 .0 44.5 29.2 

Total 

Anthropogenic 209.7 188.4 167.6 142.6 156.2 131.9 145.8 112.1 

2008 RFP Target Emission Level: 184.6 167.9 (RFP Demonstrated) 

Note: Values in red/italics reflect updates to account for unused CERCs. 
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Figure 1: Estimated Connecticut NOx Emissions 

Compared to 2008 RFP Statewide Target Level 

Accounting for Unused ERC's 

Actual Projected 

2002 2008 

a 

N 

c 

E 

c 

. 

E 

W 

z 

400.0 

350.0 

300.0 

Figure 2: Estimated Connecticut NOx Emissions 

Compared to 2008 RFP Statewide Target Level 

Not Accounting for Unused ERC's 

R_- 

250.0 r200.0 

150.0 

RFP Target = 297' .9 _ ... ..~~~,. ., .~..~ 

Total = 249.7 

caL._=.. ..2,_47.5.---._._. ..__...__. ... . ._ ..~ 

100.0 -~j - 

50.0 

0.0 

oa 2ooa 

Revisions to 

RFP Cslculstions 

a Unused 

NOx ERC's 

0 Point NOx 

Area NOx 

N Non-Road NOx 

~ On-Road NOx 

Feb 2008 Ozone 

Attainment SIP 

RFP Calculations 

* Point NOx 

* Area NOx 

. Non-Road NOx 

n On-Road NOx 

Actual Projected 

2002 2008