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TECHNICAL REFERENCE DOCUMENT

IMPROVING WEATHER FORECASTING

1. Introduction

Improving weather information is an international concern. Severe weather events (tornadoes, 

blizzards, hail, tropical storms such as hurricanes, and extra-tropical storms such northeasters) 

impact every person and nation on the face of the Earth. These events cause short-lived and longterm hazards, such as flash floods, storm surge and droughts, the latter often leading to wildfire 

events which further complicate interactions with regional weather, air quality and climate. Each 

year, tens of thousands of lives are needlessly lost and many billions of dollars in avoidable 

economic impact result because of the inability to reliably forecast and warn decision makers and 

the public about impending weather hazards. Furthermore, worldwide socioeconomic sectors 

(including agriculture, energy distribution, construction, financial, tourism and recreation, public 

health, ecosystems and biodiversity) are directly affected by severe changes in temperature, 

precipitation and other general weather conditions. These sectors need improved and extended 

lead-time weather forecasts to improve productivity, cut costs and/or reduce losses. Scientific 

research, of El Nino as a case in point, is providing the foundation for more accurate weather 

forecasts and warnings. Achievable improvements in Earth observations, however, are needed to 

understand underlying physical phenomena and reduce model uncertainties.

The societal benefits of weather observation are many and date back to the early days of 

civilization, affecting food production and human migration. Weather prediction improvements 

yield savings in life, property, and infrastructure. Aviation safety, for example, could be improved 

through better knowledge of the location and quantity of super cooled liquid water and volcanic 

ash emissions. Transportation costs could be reduced through better knowledge of the sea surface 

wind and sea ice for transoceanic ship routing. More accurate weather predictions could result in 

significant savings for the energy industry, such as better matching of supply to projected demand. 

Better forecasts are important in planning disaster assessment and emergency response. The 

commodities market could also bene fit from improved weather forecasts. Improved weather 

observations, assimilated into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, would yield 

quantitative improvements in global and regional forecast capability. Improvements could be 

expected in areas such as regional forecasting of rain and snow, forecasting of winter storms on 

the local level, hurricane landfall accuracy, tornado lead-time, and prediction of thunderstorm 

occurrence. These improvements would yield easily appreciable benefits to the public.

While even perfect forecasts will not prevent all losses due to weather and floods, further forecast 

and warning improvements will lessen these losses. For example, the annual cost of electricity 

could decrease by at least $1 billion per year, if the accuracy of temperature forecasts improved by 
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1 degree Fahrenheit [1]. Better preparation, response, and mitigation could reduce the average 

annual cost of storm-related disasters by approximately 10 percent or $700 million per year [2]. 

Improved flash and river flood forecasts will save lives and an estimated $240 million per year in 

flood losses [3]. Worldwide agriculture benefits from better El Niño forecasts could exceed $500 

million per year [4].

A U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System and Improving Weather Forecasting—A 

Necessary Synergy

Improving weather forecasting is one of nine preliminary societal benefit areas, which are the 

focus of the planned U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System. The nine preliminary benefit 

areas are:

• Improve Weather Forecasting

• Reduce Loss of Life and Property from disasters

• Protect and Monitor Our Ocean Resource

• Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate, and Adapt to Climate Variability and 

Change

• Support Sustainable Agriculture and Forestry, and Combat Land Degradation

• Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors and Human Health and WellBeing

• Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts

• Protect and Monitor Water Resources

• Monitor and Manage Energy Resources

These areas are linked and not mutually exclusive, especially in the area of weather forecasting. 

For example, weather forecasting improvements could likely lead to reducing loss of life and 

property from disasters, better energy resource management, and better sustained agriculture. The 

Earth is an integrated system. All the processes that influence conditions on the Earth (whether 

ecological, biological, climatological, or geological) are linked and impact one another. As 

illustrated in Figure 1, current weather observing systems (to be discussed in further detail in 

Section 3) provide environmental data and information necessary for realizing the other specified 

benefits. However, weather forecasting improvements depend on feedback from those areas. 

Figure 2 illustrates the types of information and insight the weather community needs to produce 

more accurate specification and forecasts of environmental phenomena impacting the societal 

benefit area of interest. For example, better specification of soil properties and crop coverage 

from agriculture is necessary for better forecasts from numerical prediction models for farmers. 

A U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System contributes to improving weather information in 

three ways. This integrated system provides a timely, comprehensive initial synoptic view (or 

“Earth” picture), which is crucial to more specific short-range forecasts—more timely and 

accurate weather information available to decision-makers. This integrated system also provides 

comprehensive observations necessary to extend the range of useful products—reducing the 
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impact of weather on a larger number of global inhabitants and regions. Furthermore, this 

integrated system provides an organization and infrastructure allowing U.S. participating agencies 

to more efficiently address their end-to-end weather information services needs—resulting in 

greater service for less cost.

Disasters

Agriculture

Weather

Oceans

Health

Water

Climate

Ecosystems

Energy

Winds

Temps/LtngWinds/SolarTemps, AQ

Sea State/SST/Salinity

Sea Level

Precip./Snow

Clouds/ Soil Properties

Precip/Temps

Soil Temp/RH

Sea PropertiesPrecip./Temps

Precip/Snowfall

Winds/Haz. Storms

Surface Cover (Veg)

Evaporation/SST

Figure 1: Weather data and information critical 

to realizing other societal benefits

More specifically, models will exploit improved observations from the U.S. Integrated Earth 

Observation System to yield weather forecasts of sufficient quality that many disciplines, which 

are currently structured to cope reactively with weather as it occurs, will transition to operations 

that proactively anticipate threats and take action days in advance. For example, energy 

generation decisions made 4-6 days in advance of heat waves and cold snaps based on accurate 

weather forecasts can save millions of dollars. Accurate forecasts of excessive temperatures and 

humidities will allow health officials to anticipate and adequately staff for heat-stress-related 

emergencies. Similarly, accurate weather forecasts will allow: the agriculture sector to take 

measures to protect crops; ecological monitoring teams to evolve beyond tracking to predicting 

biological invasions; and disaster teams to minimize the impact of potentially catastrophic 

environmental events threatening life and property.

In summary, the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System contributions not only improve 

weather information, but, in doing so, also produce derivative contributions to the other societal 

benefit areas, creating an interdisciplinary synergistic approach to addressing societal needs—
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thereby improving the utilization of information, its overall quality and reducing development 

costs.

Disasters

Agriculture

Weather

Oceans

Health

Water

Climate

Ecosystems

Energy

Air Quality

EmissionsDeposition

Biological Inventories

Ocean Properties

Stream Level/Flow

Water Table/Snow

Soil Properties

Crop Coverage

Fire/Flood Innundation

Volcano Eruptions

Topography/Bathimetry

Energy BudgetOcean Props.Temps

Ocean Properties/Biomass

Soil/Canopy Properties

Figure 2: Other societal benefit data necessary 

to improve weather forecasting capabilities

Weather Forecasting—A Benchmark for U.S. and International Cooperation

Sustained global cooperation on Earth observations is well established in the area of weather, as 

acknowledged by the ministers from 47 countries attending the Second Earth Observation Summit 

in Tokyo, Japan on April 25, 2004. The Framework Document, adopted by the ministers at the 

Summit, recognized the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Watch as 

demonstrating the value of international collaboration in the weather area, but stated that 

improvements in observation networks are still needed and will yield further success through 

improved accuracy in weather information and long-term prediction [5]. The U.S. has been an 

active participant in WMO activities for over 50 years.
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Within the U.S., the area of weather is equally well established, with well-defined organizational 

missions to provide a continuum of weather support. This continuum includes:

• Operations and services, which includes education and training, observing system 

deployment and operational implementation

• Applied research to solve immediate problems, through forecast technique 

development, hazard detection algorithms and proof of concept activities

• Basic research to increase the fundamental understanding of the weather through 

theoretical studies, numerical simulations, and field projects

The operations and services part of the continuum is the domain of individual agencies. The basic 

and applied research parts of the continuum are the domain of the U.S. Weather Research Program 

(USWRP), an interagency partnership that provides the essential focal point and organizational 

driver for moving ideas and technology from the research arena to operational implementation in 

order to achieve the goal of greatly improved weather prediction [6].

Over the past 40 years, provision of weather services within the U.S. has evolved from an almost 

exclusively governmental function to one carried out by the public sector (a combination of 

federal, state, and local government agencies), the private sector and academia. Partnerships exist 

at all levels (described further in Section 6) to support meeting the weather needs of an 

increasingly diverse user community [7].

On the federal level, the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and 

Supporting Research (also known as the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology 

(OFCM)) ensures the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic 

coordination of operational weather requirements and services, and supporting research, among 

the federal agencies (http://www.ofcm.gov). Fifteen federal agencies are currently engaged in 

meteorological activities and participate in the OFCM’s coordination and cooperation 

infrastructure. Each year, OFCM prepares The Federal Plan for Meteorological Services and 

Supporting Research for the next fiscal year. This Congressionally mandated plan is a one-of-akind document, which articulates the meteorological services, provided and supporting research 

conducted by federal agencies. The Fiscal Year 2004 plan can be found at 

http://www.ofcm.gov/fp-fy04/fedplan.htm. 

In the operational domain, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 

National Weather Service (NWS) is the primary source of weather, water, and climate data, 

forecasts and warnings for the U.S., its territories, adjacent waters, and ocean areas. The NWS 

operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping 

to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing 

economic security and national safety through the research and prediction of weather and climaterelated events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation’s coastal and marine 

resources. 
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NWS, through its National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), delivers national and 

global weather, water, climate and space weather analyses, forecasts, warnings and guidance to its 

Partners and External User Communities. These products and services are based on a servicescience legacy and respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation's 

economy and support the nation's growing need for environmental information. NCEP provides 

tailored services through the following 9 centers:

• Aviation Weather Center—provides warnings and forecasts of hazardous flight 

conditions at all levels within the domestic and international airspace.

• Climate Prediction Center— assesses and forecasts the impacts of short-term 

climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, 

for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.

• Environmental Modeling Center—improves numerical weather, marine and 

climate predictions at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction through a 

broad program of research in data assimilation and modeling.

• Hydrometeorological Prediction Center— provides analysis, forecast, and guidance 

products and services in support of the daily public forecasting activities of the 

National Weather Service and its customers, and tailored weather support to other 

government agencies in emergency and special situations. Focuses on heavy 

precipitation forecasting, winter weather forecasting, medium-range forecasting, 

real-time numerical model diagnostics and interpretation, and surface analyses.

• Ocean Prediction Center— continually monitors and analyzes maritime data, 

originates and issues marine warnings and forecasts, and provides guidance of 

marine atmospheric variables for purposes of protection of life and property, safety 

at sea, and enhancement of economic opportunity. These products fulfill U.S. 

responsibilities with the World Meteorological Organization and Safety of Life at 

Sea Convention (SOLAS) [International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 

1960 and 1974].

• Space Environment Center—continually monitors and forecasts Earth’s space 

environment; provides accurate, reliable and useful solar-terrestrial information; 

conducts and leads research and development programs to understand the space 

environment and to improve services.

• Storm Prediction Center—provides short-term forecasts of hazardous weather to 

the public and the NWS local field offices.

• Tropical Prediction Center—issues analyses, forecasts, watches, and warnings of 

hazardous tropical weather.

• NCEP Central Operations—sustains and executes the operational suite of the 

numerical analyses and forecast models and prepares NCEP products for 

dissemination.
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Through the operation of the nine centers described above, the NWS is the most well-known 

government provider of weather services. However, several other federal agencies also provide 

weather-related services (operational and/or research):

• Department of Agriculture (USDA)--operating specialized weather observation 

networks and conducting active supporting research to ensure an abundance of 

high-quality agricultural commodities while minimizing the adverse effects of 

agriculture on the environment

• Department of the Interior (DOI)--supporting the Bureau of Land Management’s 

remote automatic weather station program

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)--providing user-appropriate and 

scientifically credible air-quality meteorological programs to support regulatory 

applications

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)--aviation weather 

research, Earth Observing System and Earth Probe instruments

• Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)--obtaining and analyzing meteorological 

data and information related to siting new nuclear power plants and safe operation 

of nuclear facilities, the protection of public health and safety and protection of the 

environment

• Department of Transportation (DOT)--through the Federal Aviation Administration 

(FAA) Weather and Radar Processor (WARP), disseminating aviation weather 

information throughout the National Airspace System (NAS) and operating of 

WSR-88D Doppler weather radar, Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), 

and automated weather information systems

• Department of Defense (DoD)--acquiring the National Polar-orbiting Operational 

Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), operating WSR-88D, ASOS and 

automated weather information systems, and supporting DoD operational weather 

requirements

• Department of Energy (DOE)—providing meteorological services for national 

defense projects and homeland security at DOE and National Nuclear Security 

Administration (NNSA) sites; operating the National Atmospheric Release 

Advisory Center (NARAC); and conducting research and development regarding 

climate change, radiation transfer mechanisms and cloud studies, atmospheric 

chemistry and studies of atmospheric boundary layer processes

• Department of Homeland Security (DHS)--providing atmospheric transport and 

diffusion modeling and plume forecasts

Illustrating the effective national cooperation in improving weather forecasting services, these 

agencies, working together through OFCM, have accomplished the following over the past two 

years:
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• Developed a Homeland Security Environmental Support Plan

• Published the Weather Information for Surface Transportation National Needs 

Assessment Report

• Implemented of a more rigorous, scientific-based Wind Chill Temperature Index

• Published the Aviation Weather Program Mid-Course Assessment, a periodic 

review of progress in improving aviation weather safety

• Completed requirements definition for a new national lightning data contract

• Investigated the applicability of phased array radar technology for use in upgrading 

current weather radar capabilities

• Collaborated with the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council to 

examine research opportunities and required services to improve weather 

forecasting for the Nation’s roadways

• Broadened agency participation with USWRP to accelerate forecast improvements 

of high impact weather and to facilitate full use of advanced weather information

2. User Requirements

Benefiting from the strong international and national cooperation in improving weather 

forecasting mentioned above, the specification and prioritization of weather observation is well 

established. Internationally, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has a long history of 

defining its weather observational data requirements. Guided by its Long-term Planning Process, 

the WMO presently follows a process that results in a hierarchical set of requirements. The Sixth 

Long-term Plan is the current plan and spans the time frame 2004 to 2011. The current procedure 

for setting, reviewing and updating weather observational data requirements by the various WMO 

Technical Commissions is called the Rolling Review of Requirements (RRR). The RRR 

procedure consists of four stages: a review of users’ requirements for observations, within areas of 

applications covered by WMO programs; a review of the observing capabilities of existing and 

planned satellite and in situ systems; a critical review of the extent to which the capabilities meet 

the requirements; and a resulting statement of guidance. Requirements for observations are stated 

quantitatively in terms of a set of relevant parameters, of which the most important are horizontal 

and vertical resolution, frequency (observing cycle), timeliness (delay of availability), and 

accuracy (http://www.wmo.ch). 

Working with input from the RRR process, the WMO Expert Team on Observational Data 

Requirements and Redesign of the Global Observing System (GOS) has developed a vision for the

GOS of 2015, which includes an observation component (with both remote sensing and in situ

systems), and a data management component. This vision document provides a prioritized list of 

critical atmospheric parameters that are not adequately measured by current or planned observing 

systems. Those parameters in order of priority are:
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• Wind profiles at all levels

• Temperature profiles of adequate vertical resolution in cloudy areas

• Precipitation

• Soil moisture

• Surface pressure

• Snow equivalent water content.

Additionally, the document provides a prioritized list of recommendations, in two categories, to 

facilitate development of this future system. Those categories are: satellite systems and in situ

systems. Table 1 summarizes the priorities, the details of which are included in the WMO GOS 

2015 vision document [8].

Priority Satellite In Situ

1 Calibration Data Distribution and Coding

2 GEO Imager AMDAR Development

3 GEO Sounder Ground-based GPS

4 GEO Imager/Sounder Improved Observations--Ocean Areas

5 LEO Data Timeliness Improved Observations--Tropical Land Areas 

6 LEO Temporal Coverage New Observing Technologies

7 LEO Sea Surface Winds

8 LEO Altimeter

9 LEO Earth Radiation

10 R&D LEO Doppler

11 R&D Precipitation

12 R&D Radio Occultation

Table 1: Prioritized Recommendations for WMO Global Observing System of 2015

The above specific observing priorities were used by an international team developing the 

“Improving Weather Information, Forecasting and Warning” section of the Implementation Plan 

for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). This team recognized that, in 

addition to the above specific observing priorities, the following general end-to-end weather 

information services priorities exist:

• Full access to GEOSS information (necessary policies, interoperability standards, 

dissemination technologies)

• Enhanced data initialization and assimilation capabilities to facilitate full use of the 

expanded remotely-sensed and in situ observations captured through GEOSS
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• Necessary Research and Development activities, related to new archive, access and 

data processing (including numerical modeling) capabilities, to ensure sustained 

weather information for the long-term

• Sufficient education and training to enable full worldwide use of GEOSS

These international priorities form a basis for U.S. national weather forecasting priorities, as the 

U.S. is an active participant in the WMO World Weather Watch program.

Within the U.S. several national studies have shown that present and future users will require 

access to weather data that are more detailed and available in less time. These users will require 

access to environmental data and information within minutes, hours, or days of the recorded 

observations, depending on the type of application for the data [9, 10 and 11]. New and improved 

weather products are leading to new users, such as the “weather derivatives” industry [12]. 

Weather derivatives are financial instruments that allow energy and other companies sensitive to 

weather variability to spread out the risk associated with these uncertainties by purchasing 

insurance against such risks. A multibillion-dollar industry that provides this protection against 

weather risks has emerged—an industry that is very sensitive to accurate weather forecasts and 

accurate historical climate data [13].

Based upon an active, continuous dialogue with mission partners, NWS has determined users 

(including NWS field offices, other governmental agencies, the media, the private sector, 

academic institutions, the international community, and the general public) have the following 

priorities:

• Increased coverage and resolution of observations—to improve the accuracy of 

depictions of critical phenomena and processes enabling more accurate and 

extended lead-time warnings and forecasts. 

• Observations of environmental elements not presently observed—to improve 

existing and enable the creation of new warning and forecast products. 

• Improved timeliness, data quality, and long-term continuity of observations—to

reduce analysis and model initialization error; increase forecast accuracy; extend 

warning lead times; and maintain the climate record. 

• Integrated multi-purpose observing systems and networks which allow rapid 

dissemination of weather information—to cost-effectively meet multi-purpose 

observational requirements and to provide more timely data access. 
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Table 2 lists the NWS-derived listing of common weather observations needed to perform the 

specified weather forecasting and warning mission. 

Weather Missions

Geo-Physical 

Parameters

Flash Flood 

Warnings

Tropical 

Storm 

Warnings

Winter 

Storm 

Warnings

Severe 

Thunderstorm 

Warnings 

(Wind, Hail, 

Tornados)

Transport 

Safety 

(ground and 

air)

Cloud Properties X X X X X

Soil Properties X X X X

Pressure Surface 

Height

X X X X X

Lake/River/Sea 

Ice Properties

X X X

Electro-Static 

Discharge

X X X X X

Precipitation 

Properties

X X X X X

Atmospheric 

Moisture

X X X X X

Other 

Lake/River/Sea 

Properties 

(salinity, flow rate, 

level, 

temperature)

X X X

Land Surface 

Properties

X X X X X

Atmospheric 

Temperature

X X X X X

Atmospheric 

Winds 

X X X X X

Atmospheric 

Vertical Motion

X X X X X

Visibility 

Properties (e.g. 

dust, smoke, 

haze, fog)

X X X

Land Surface 

Snow Properties

X X X

Table 2: Observations Required for Successfully Meeting Weather Missions

Another national source of common weather observation requirements is the Integrated 

Operational Requirements Document for the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental 

Satellite System. This requirements document contains a detailed requirements correlation matrix, 
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as well as a set of key performance parameters (KPPs). The listing of these KPPs, contained in the 

table below, are validated sets of user prioritized environmental requirements.

System Requirement Threshold Objective

ATMOSPHERIC VERTICAL 

MOISTURE PROFILE

(measurement uncertainty)

Clear, surface to 600mb Greater of 20% or 0.2g kg -110%

Cloudy, surface to 600mb Greater of 20% or 0.2g kg -110%

ATMOSPHERIC VERTICAL 

TEMPERATURE PROFILE

(measurement uncertainty)

Clear, surface to 300mb 1.6K/1km layer None

Cloudy, surface to 700mb 2.5K/1km layer None

GLOBAL SEA SURFACE WINDS

Measurement Accuracy (Speed) Greater of 2m s –1 or 10 % Greater of 1m s –1 or 10 %

IMAGERY 

(Refresh for visible and IR bands)

At any location: a) 

the avg. revisit time will be 4 hrs 

or less and the max revisit time 

will be 6 hrs or less 

b) at least 75% of the revisit 

times will be 4 hrs or less

1 Hour

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

Horizontal Cell Size – Nadir, clear 1 km 0.25km

Measurement uncertainty – clear 0.5 deg C 0.1 deg C

SOIL MOISTURE

Sensing Depth Surface (skin layer: -0.1cm) Surface to –80cm

DATA ACCESS Capable of selectively denying all 

U.S. environmental sensor data 

(except ARGOS and SARSAT7)

None

INTEROPERABILITY 100% of top-level IERs 

designated as critical

100% of top level IERs

Table 3: Key Performance Parameters for NPOESS

3. Existing Capabilities and Commonalities 

The U.S. uses both remote sensing and in situ observation systems to collect required weather 

observations. Earth observation satellites provide an inherent wide area observation capability, 

non-intrusive observations, uniformity, rapid measurements and continuity. In situ observation 

systems provide measurements unobtainable from space, measurements complementary to those 

from space and validation of satellite measurements [14]. Weather information providers need 

observations from both types of systems to provide required weather forecasts. Major 

observational infrastructure investments by NOAA, NASA, FAA, and DOD provided the bulk of 

the currently deployed U.S. weather observing capabilities. The U.S. has an impressive space-, 

surface- and air-based weather observation infrastructure. Below are brief descriptions (including 

internet URL) of those major U.S. surface- and air-based weather observing systems and weather-
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related satellites deployed today. Following the brief descriptions, Table 4 depicts the current U.S. 

weather-related satellites deployed for both research and operational use.

Deployed Non-Satellite Systems

Ameriflux Network The Ameriflux network: provides an infrastructure for guiding, collecting, 

synthesizing, and disseminating long-term measurements of CO2, water, and energy exchange 

from a variety of ecosystems; collects critical new information to help define the current global 

CO2 budget; enables improved predictions of future concentrations of atmospheric CO2; and 

enhances understanding of carbon fluxes, Net Ecosystem Production (NEP), and carbon 

sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere 

(http://public.ornl.gov/ameriflux/Participants/Sites/Map/index.cfm). 

Automated Meteorological Reports from Aircraft Automated meteorological reports from 

aircraft are generically called AMDAR (Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay) reports. In the 

United States, however, these data are generally referred to as ACARS data. (ACARS stands for 

Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System, a communication system operated for 

the airlines by Aeronautical Radio Inc. [ARINC] that reports a number of aircraft parameters such 

as passenger loading, and dispatch information along with weather information. We use the term 

ACARS to refer to only the weather information from U. S. carriers.) The U. S. data are also 

sometimes referred to as MDCRS (Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System). 

MDCRS is a database containing ACARS data and a distribution system that feeds the data from 

ARINC, where the database resides, to NCEP, where the data are used in NCEP's operational 

models and placed on the GTS (Global Telecommunications System) for distribution to 

government NWP centers worldwide (http://acweb.fsl.noaa.gov).

Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) NWS, FAA and DoD operate this network of 

967 stations located throughout the U.S. The data generally available from ASOS include hourly 

observations of air temperature, dew point, wind speed and direction, cloud cover, visibility, 

present weather, and precipitation (see http://205.156.54.206/asos).

Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS) AWOS is a suite of sensors, which measures, 

collects and broadcasts weather data to help meteorologists, pilots and flight dispatchers prepare 

and monitor weather forecasts, plan flight routes, and provide necessary information for correct 

takeoffs and landings. The FAA and various state agencies operate this network of over 600 

stations located throughout the U.S. These stations typically provide 20-minute observations of 

air temperature, dew point, wind speed and direction, cloud cover, visibility, altimeter setting, 

present weather and precipitation (http://www.faa.gov/asos/).

Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX) BAMEX was a study 

using highly mobile platforms to examine the life cycles of mesoscale convective systems. The 

study combined two related programs investigating bow echoes (principally those which produce 

damaging surface winds and last at least 4 hours) and larger convective systems, which produce 

long-lived mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs). The main objectives of BAMEX were to 
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understand and improve prediction of the mesoscale and cell-scale processes that produce severe 

winds (http://www.ofps.ucar.edu/bamex/dm/archive/data_list.html).

Citizen Weather Observer Program (CWOP) CWOP is comprised of weather stations operated 

by the general public (of which almost 700 stations are in the U.S.) and reported by amateur radio 

operators around the world. The NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory collects these observations 

(http://www.wxqa.com/). 

Cooperative Agency Profiler (CAP) Network NOAA FSL collects data from approximately 80 

CAP sites around the world, providing vertical profiles of horizontal winds within the atmospheric 

boundary layer (http://www.profiler.noaa.gov/jsp/aboutCap.jsp). 

Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) NWS oversees this network with almost 10,000 

participating cooperative observers located throughout the U.S. This network provides daily 

observations (7am local time) of maximum and minimum air temperature, precipitation, snowfall, 

and snow depth (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/index.htm). The data are archived at the 

National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Integrated Surface Irradiance Study Network (ISIS) ISIS, a network of 9 sites operated by 

NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory, provides 3-minute observations of downwelling global solar, 

direct solar, downwelling diffuse and global UVB radiation (http://www.srrb.noaa.gov). 

International H2O Project (IHOP 2002) IHOP 2002 was a field project designed to obtain 

more accurate and reliable measurements of moisture in the air. The project had four main 

research components: quantitative precipitation forecasting, convection initiation, atmospheric 

boundary layer interactions, and instrumentation. Although the project is complete, the following 

URL points to the rich network of national, regional, state and local meteorological networks used 

during the field project (http://www.joss.ucar.edu/ihop/dm/insitu/sfcmet.html). 

Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network LTER, a collaborative effort established by 

the National Science Foundation, involves more than 1800 scientists and students investigating 

ecological processes over long temporal and broad spatial scales. This network of 24 sites, 

including at least one automated weather station at each site, promotes synthesis and comparative 

research across sites and ecosystems and among other related national and international research 

programs (http://lternet.edu).

NCEP Hourly Precipitation Data NCEP routinely develops a national multi-sensor hourly 

precipitation analysis (Stage II) data set from hourly radar precipitation estimates and hourly 

gauge reports from approximately 4000 gauges across the U.S. collected by NOAA River Forecast 

Centers (http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpanl). 

NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory operates this network of 

35 unmanned Doppler Radar sites located in 18 central U.S. states and Alaska, providing hourly 

vertical wind profile data (http://www.profiler.noaa.gov/jsp). 
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Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) Network This interagency network, overseen by 

the U.S. Forest Service, consists of 726 stations located throughout the U.S., but heavily 

concentrated in the forested areas of the western mountains. The network provides hourly values 

of air temperature, dew point, wind speed and direction, precipitation, fuel temperature and fuel 

moisture (http://www.fs.fed.us/raws).

Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) SCAN, operated by USDA, provides hourly 

observations of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, solar radiation, 

precipitation, barometric pressure, snow water content, snow depth, soil temperature, and soil 

moisture collected at 80 stations across the U.S. (primarily agricultural regions 

(http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov).

Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) SURFRAD supports climate research with 

accurate, continuous, long-term measurements of the surface radiation budget over the United 

States. Seven SURFRAD stations, operated by NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory, primarily 

measure upwelling and downwelling, solar and infrared radiation; ancillary observations include 

direct and diffuse solar, photosynthetically active radiation, UVB, spectral solar, and 

meteorological parameters (http://www.srrb.noaa.gov/surfrad). 

Upper-Air Observations Program NWS manages the operation of 92 Radiosonde stations in 

North America and the Pacific Islands and supports the operation of 10 stations in the Caribbean. 

Radiosondes provide upper-air data that are essential for weather forecasts and research 

(http://www.ua.nws.noaa.gov). 

Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) Network NWS and DoD operate this 

network of 143 WSR-88D radars across the contiguous U.S, providing Level II data (reflectivity, 

mean radial velocity, and spectrum width) for recording at most sites. This Level II data is then 

processed in order to create a number of meteorological analysis products including velocity 

azimuth display wind profiles, 1-hour precipitation, severe weather probability, storm tracking 

information, and tornadic vortex signature information. All Level II and III data are archived at 

NCDC (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/radar/radarresources.html or http://www.roc.noaa.gov). 

Deployed Satellite Systems

Aqua Aqua is one of a series of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise space based platforms and a 

joint project of the U.S., Japan and Brazil. Aqua carries six instruments (MODIS, AMSR-E, 

AMSU-A, CERES, AIRS and HSB) and collects data on the Earth’s water cycle. NASA is 

working with NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to facilitate 

incorporation of Aqua data in their weather forecasting efforts (http://eos-pm.gsfc.nasa.gov). 

Aura Aura is one of a series of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise space based platforms and a 

joint project of the U.S., United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Aura carries four instruments 

(OMI, HIRDLS, TES, and MLS) and collects data on the Earth’s atmospheric chemistry and 

dynamics. These data are key for improving air quality forecasts and climate modeling and 

prediction (http://www.earth.nasa.gov). 
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Coriolis Coriolis is a test mission for the flight of two DoD payloads: Windsat and Solar Mass 

Ejection Imager (SMEI). Windsat is a polarimetric microwave radiometer experiment to passively 

measure ocean surface wind vectors. SMEI will monitor solar activity, with the goal of more 

accurately predict geomagnetic disturbances to orbiting satellites 

(http://nkma.ksc.nasa.gov/payload/missions/coriolis). 

Challenging Mini-Satellite Payload for Geo-scientific Research and Applications Program 

(CHAMP) CHAMP is a cooperative project among the U.S. (NASA and AFRL), Germany and 

France. CHAMP carries six instruments (LRR, OVM, FGM, DIDM, ACC, and GPS receiver) and 

will perform atmospheric and ionospheric soundings with applications to global climate studies, 

weather forecasting, disaster research and navigation (http://op.gfz-potsdam.de/champ/). 

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) DMSP is a Department of Defense (DoD) 

program run by the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC). The DMSP designs, 

builds, launches, and maintains satellites monitoring the meteorological, oceanographic, and solarterrestrial physics environments. Data from DMSP satellites are received and used at operational 

weather forecasting centers (NOAA and DoD) continuously and archived at NOAA’s National 

Geophysical Data Center (http://www.oso.noaa.gov/dmsp). 

Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) ERBS is a NASA satellite, which carries two 

instruments (ERBE and SAGE II) designed to investigate how solar energy is absorbed and reemitted by the Earth. ERBS observations are used to determine the effects of human activities 

(such as burning of fossil fuels) and natural occurrences (such as volcanic eruptions) on the 

Earth’s radiation balance (http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/erbe/erbs.html). 

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) GOES, built and launched by 

NASA and operated by NOAA, provides timely global weather information, including advance 

warning of developing storms. GOES imagery is commonly featured on many TV weather reports 

across the United States and the world. The GOES Program maintains two satellites operating in 

conjunction to provide observational coverage of 60% of the Earth. The GOES satellite system has 

remained an essential cornerstone of weather observations and forecasting for 25 years. The twosatellite GOES system maintains a continuous data stream in support of the National Weather 

Service requirements. Current weather satellites can transmit visible or infrared imagery, focus 

on a narrow or wide area, and maneuver in space to obtain maximum coverage. In addition to an 

imager, GOES 12, the latest in the current GOES-series satellites, contains four other instruments 

(Solar X-ray imager, Space Environment Monitor, Atmospheric Sounder, and Search and Rescue 

package) providing data for use in weather forecasts, disaster management, public health and 

aviation safety (http://www.goes.noaa.gov). 

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) GRACE, a joint partnership between 

NASA and Germany, is primarily designed to map variations in the Earth’s gravity field. 

However, GRACE carries six instruments (Star Camera Assembly, GPS Receiver, IPU, LRR, KBand Ranging Instruments, and SuperSTAR Accelerometers), which will help provide a better 

profile of the Earth’s atmosphere (http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/). 
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Ice, Clouds, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) ICESat, part of NASA’s Earth Observing 

System (EOS), is primarily designed to quantify ice sheet mass balance and understand how 

changes in Earth’s atmosphere and climate affect polar ice masses an global sea level. However, 

ICESat’s two instruments (GLAS and GPS receiver) measure the distribution of clouds and 

aerosols, land topography, sea ice and vegetation cover (http://icesat.gsfc.nasa.gov). 

Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) POES, built and launched by 

NASA and operated by NOAA, provides atmospheric profiles (temperature, moisture and ozone), 

radiation budget, cloud cover and storm location information for improved weather forecasting. 

POES, a two-satellite operational complement to GOES, carries eight instruments (AMSU-A, 

AMSU-B, MHS, SBUV, DCS, AVHRR, HIRS and Search and Rescue package) for use in 

weather forecasting, disaster management, public health and aviation safety 

(http://www.oso.noaa.gov/poes). 

Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) QuikSCAT is a NASA satellite designed to measure seasurface wind speed and direction data under all weather and cloud conditions over the Earth’s 

oceans. QuikSCAT’s main instrument, SeaWinds, is an active radar scatterometer that covers 

90% of the Earth’s surface in one day, providing data vital for operational weather forecasting, 

storm warning and global climate research (http://winds.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/quikscat/). 

Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) SORCE is a NASA-sponsored satellite 

mission that provides state-of-the-art measurements of incoming x-ray, ultraviolet, visible, nearinfrared and total solar radiation. SORCE’s four instruments (TIM, SIM A&B, SOLSTICE A&B, 

and XPS) provide measurements critical to studies of the sun, its effect on the Earth system and its 

influence on humankind (http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce). 

Terra Terra is the flagship of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise (the first EOS platform), 

providing global data on the state of the atmosphere, land and oceans, as well as their interactions 

with solar radiation and with one another. Terra’s five instruments (CERES, MISR, MODIS, 

MOPITT, and ASTER) allow simultaneous study of clouds, water vapor, aerosol particles, trace 

gases, terrestrial and oceanic properties, the interaction among them and their effect on 

atmospheric radiation and climate (http://terra.nasa.gov). 

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TRMM is a NASA satellite devoted to 

determining rainfall in the tropics and subtropics of the Earth. A joint NASA/Japan mission, 

TRMM has five instruments (CERES, LIS, TMI, PR, and VIRS) that provide three-dimensional 

maps of storm structure, rainfall distribution and intensity and lightning location over the tropics 

(http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov). 

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) UARS is a NASA satellite, the first dedicated to 

studying stratospheric processes. UARS’ ten instruments (ISAMS, MLS, HALOE, HRDI, WIND 

II, SOLSTICE, SUSIM, PEM, ACRIM, and CLAES) measure winds and temperatures in the 

stratosphere, as well as energy input from the sun (http://umpgal.gsfc.nasa.gov/uarsscience.html). 
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The following table lists satellites deployed for both research and operational use:

Mission Organizations Associated 

Countries Environmental Parameters

Aqua NASA Japan, Brazil Weather & environment

Aura NASA UK, Netherlands Aerosols & volcanic plumes

CHAMP DLR/DARA/NASA Germany, France Atmospheric temperature

Coriolis NRL/NOAA/NASA Ocean surface winds

DMSP DoD/NOAA Weather & environment

ERBS NASA Earth energy balance

GOES NOAA/NASA Weather

GRACE NASA/DLR Germany Atmospheric temperature

ICESat NASA Clouds and Aerosols

OrbView-1 ORBIMAGE/NASA Atmospheric temperature & lightning

POES NOAA/NASA Weather & environment

QuikSCAT NASA Ocean surface winds

SAC-C CONAE/NASA Argentina Atmospheric temperature

SORCE NASA Solar irradiance

Terra NASA Weather & environment

TRMM NASA Japan Rainfall, lightning, storm structure

UARS NASA UK, Canada Stratospheric winds and temperature

Table 4: Currently Deployed U.S. Weather-Related Satellites

The listing of deployed Earth observing capabilities above is not exhaustive. Inventories of those 

capabilities are available from every agency listed in Section 2. For example, NOAA completed 

its baseline observing system architecture (including an inventory of observing systems) in early 

2003. NOAA published its Strategic Direction for NOAA’s Integrated Global Environmental 

Observation and Data Management System in July 2004 (available at http://www.nosc.noaa.gov), 

which contains a catalog of NOAA’s observing systems. NASA has a detailed description of its 

Earth observing systems within its Destination Earth website (http://www.earth.nasa.gov).

4. Major Gaps and Challenges

Major gaps affecting weather forecasting improvements exist in two broad areas: exploiting 

weather information that currently exists and improving that existing information. Exploiting 

existing weather information is a particular problem for developing countries, which often lack 

communication mechanisms to properly receive and act on that information. Additionally, there is 

a short fall in education and training processes and resources needed to sustain the development 

and use of existing weather information capabilities in those developing countries.

Within these two broad areas, there are five sub-categories of gaps in weather information that can 

be addressed by the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System:
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• Observational. As previously stated, lack of complete global observational 

coverage of the atmosphere, land and oceans (e.g., poor resolution, inadequate 

quality) inhibits development and exploitation of extended range products. Table 5 

illustrates the following critical atmospheric parameters not adequately measured 

by current or planned observing systems: wind profiles; vertical profiles of 

moisture; precipitation; thermal profiling of the ocean mixed layer; soil moisture; 

surface pressure; and snow equivalent water content.

• Modeling. Inadequate aspects of scientific modeling (data assimilation, numerical 

weather prediction, and statistical post processing) limit the accuracy and reliability 

of weather forecasts and warnings. NWP models have gaps in the following 

categories of data that increase uncertainty and reduce model accuracy: vertical 

profiles of moisture flux; coverage of tropical land areas and ocean areas; 

measurements of clouds, precipitation, and ozone; rigorous calibration of remotely 

sensed radiances.

• Decision Support Tools. Decision analysis in disparate areas needs more than an 

accurate weather forecast. Techniques are needed to tailor those forecasts to 

specific applications to achieve full value (may lie outside the charter of the U.S. 

Integrated Earth Observation System).

• Information Technologies. Telecommunication and computer processing gaps 

limit observations exchange, scientific collaboration, and dissemination of critical 

information to decision-makers and people. Also, full implementation of new 

observing systems technologies is challenging due in part to a lack of structure to 

facilitate transition of research technologies to operational use in all components of 

the end-to-end weather information services system. 

• Education and Training. With improvements in all facets of producing and 

delivering weather information, parallel improvements in education and training 

processes are necessary to ensure full user exploitation of that information.

The WMO has developed an international strategy to address the above-listed gaps [15]. The 

U.S., through the implementation of the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System Strategic Plan, 

is now poised to develop a national strategy to address these same gaps.

Variable

Warnings 

and 

Nowcasts

(0-1 day)

Short-range 

Forecasts

(1-3 days)

Mediumrange 

Forecasts

(3-5 days)

Long-range

Forecasts

(5-15 days)

Aerosol profile 4 4 4 4

Air pressure over land and sea surface 1 1 1 2

Air specific humidity (at surface) 1 2 3 3

Air temperature (at surface) 1 1 1 4

Atmospheric stability index 1 1 2 2

Atmospheric temperature profile 1 1 2 4
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Cloud base height 2 3 3 4

Cloud cover 1 1 1 1

Cloud drop size (at cloud top) 4 4 4 4

Cloud ice profile 2 3 4 4

Cloud imagery 1

Cloud top height 1 2 3 4

Cloud top temperature 1 2 3 4

Cloud type 1 3 4 4

Cloud water profile 2 3 4 4

Dominant wave period and direction 2 2 3 3

Fire area and temperature 2 3 4 4

Height of top of the Planetary Boundary 

Layer

2 3 4 4

Height of tropopause 2 3 4 4

Land surface temperature 1 1 2 3

Leaf Area Index (LAI) 2 2 2 2

Long-wave Earth surface emissivity 1 2 3 4

Normalized Differential Vegetation Index 

(NDVI)

2 3 4 4

Ocean currents (vector) 3 3 4 4

Outgoing long-wave radiation at TOA 2 2 3 4

Outgoing short-wave radiation at TOA 2 2 3 4

Ozone profile 3 3 4 4

Precipitation index (daily cumulative) 2 3 4 4

Precipitation rate (liquid & solid) at the 

surface

2 3 4 4

Sea surface bulk temperature 1 1 2 3

Sea-ice cover 1 1 2 3

Sea-ice surface temperature 4 4 4 4

Sea-ice thickness 3 4 4 4

Significant wave height 1 2 3 4

Snow cover 1 3 4 4

Snow water equivalent 3 3 4 4

Soil moisture 2 3 3 4

Specific humidity profile 2 3 4 4

Temperature of tropopause 2 3 4 4

Wind profile (horizontal & vertical 

components)

3 4 4 4

Wind speed over land & sea surface 

(horizontal)

2 2 3 4

TABLE KEY:

1 Possible and available today

2 Not yet available, but possible in 2 years (existing systems)

3 Not yet available, but possible in 6 years (existing and new systems)

4 Not yet available, but possible within 10 years if work is started now

Table 5: Capability to Observe Environmental Parameters (WMO)

A recent article, reporting on a national workshop to develop an implementation plan for the 

USWRP, listed warm-season quantitative precipitation forecasts as the poorest performance area 
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of forecast systems worldwide [16]. This report illustrates the gaps and challenges facing the 

national and international weather forecasting communities. Key gaps were found in 

understanding key scientific processes, observations, and data assimilation.

• Scientific processes-. Knowledge of environmental aerosols may prove necessary 

for properly representing cloud microphysical processes, but there are no efforts 

underway to provide routine observations of aerosols or even to provide a 

systematic research assessment of the forecast sensitivity.

• Observations- Observations on the scale of the events being forecast (e.g., summer 

thunderstorms) are limited to those available from surface mesonets, profilers, 

radars and geostationary and GPS satellites. While useful, these observing systems 

do not provide certain key pieces of information required by models. For example, 

the quality and vertical resolution of geosynchronous satellite data over 

heterogeneous continental backgrounds remains unacceptably low, distant radars 

overshoot the boundary layer, nearby radars leave a “cone of silence” and surface 

mesonets provide no information about the free troposphere unless augmented with 

profiling devices.

• Data assimilation- In the overall process of forecasting convective precipitation, 

data assimilation may be the most critical path through which the pace of forecast 

advances will be modulated. Two glaring gaps exist here. First, there is a serious 

deficiency in human resources working on data assimilation. Second, a large 

fraction of current observations are not being assimilated into today’s models.

To address these challenges, the USWRP recommends a tightly knit implementation plan 

addressing basic research, advanced development (observations, assimilation technologies, and 

forecast systems), and experimental forecast demonstrations (with emphasis on societally 

grounded verification metrics).

5. Future Earth Observation Systems that May Fill Gaps

Vision The following illustration (scenario or “use case”) provides one view of the benefits 

possible from improving weather forecasting through a U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System. 

One can certainly develop similar views for other regions or for global application.

Ten years from now a weak tropical storm forms in the Caribbean Sea. In situ 

AMDAR measurements from commercial aircraft and space-based 

hyperspectral sounders and NPOESS instruments provide atmospheric and 

oceanic environmental data to advanced numerical prediction models. These 

models predict a high probability of a minimum-intensity hurricane with great 

rainfall potential making landfall along the coasts of Honduras and

Guatemala days hence. Other space-based sensors detect abnormally high 

soil moisture along northern slopes of the Honduran and Guatemalan

highlands. Using these soil moisture data and numerical rainfall predictions, 
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hydrologic models predict massive run-off, flooding and high probability of 

mudslides for a 300-km band of the highlands 18-24 hours following landfall. 

Global weather and hydrological predictions are transmitted from the U.S. 

National Weather Service to a new regional environmental prediction and 

warning center, established to serve Central American nations. With expertise 

on local conditions, the regional center issues warnings 4 days in advance, 

allowing decision makers, relief agencies and inhabitants to take action. As 

predicted the storm barely reaches hurricane strength, but following landfall 

rain totals exceed 25 cm in 6 hours over the higher elevations. Rampaging 

rivers subsequently uproot trees and destroy many hundreds of homes, but 

thousands of lives and much property are saved by the ample warnings.

Given this scenario, one envisions that every country will have the weather information needed to 

virtually eliminate loss of life and to strongly reduce property damages from severe weather 

events. For developing countries, the reduction of impacts could reach that attained in developed 

countries over the past decades.

One envisions an end-to-end weather information system that provides, to decision makers around 

the world, timely, reliable and actionable information prior, during and after the event for relief 

support. This system will have the following improved capabilities:

• Improved in situ and remotely-sensed observations of critical parameters, 

coordinated and exchanged globally, providing input to

• Improved numerical prediction models, with advanced physics capabilities, 

providing accurate (in location and time) forecasts of severe weather events to

• New or strengthened regional and local warning centers, allowing rapid and 

tailored notification to local authorities responsible for protecting people and 

property.

One envisions societies where weather forecasts are fully used in decision support systems to 

improve economic efficiency and productivity, as well as environmental protection, through 

improved longer-range predictions available in probabilistic terms.

Transitioning Research to Operations

To attain the benefits “foreseen” above requires a substantial increase in current weather 

forecasting capabilities. The key to increasing those capabilities is to field new capabilities that, if 

existent, are presently in some stage of research or development (transitioning research to 

operations). A recent NRC study [20] addresses this topic, noting the weaknesses in current 

transition pathways and processes and providing recommendations for improvement. The report 

describes the transition process as one that involves a “push-pull” dynamic in which research and 

technology development programs respond to the requirements (pull) of the operational user and 

the operational system takes advantage of new research results and technologies (push) that 

emerge as a result of science and technology evolution. User requirements and priorities were 
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discussed in Section 4. Research activities are discussed below which, upon successful transition, 

provide an opportunity for improving weather forecasting capabilities.

NWS has published two plans that form the basis of improving weather information within the 

U.S.—the NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) and the NWS Service 

Improvement Plan (NSIP—2004). The NWS STIP: looks into the future and explains how 

science and technology may evolve NWS products and services; defines long term strategies, 

objectives, and programs; and illustrates how the NWS plans to take advantage of scientific 

opportunities beyond the next ten years [21]. The NSIP—2004 translates the grand vision of the 

NWS STIP into specific customer service improvements in the areas of aviation, climate, fire 

weather, hydrology, marine weather, health (e.g., air quality), and homeland security [22]. Figure 

3 (taken from the NWS STIP) illustrates the NWS science and technology plan for monitoring and 

observing. The bulleted items are advances NWS plans to pursue to improve capabilities over the 

near-, mid- and far-term of the next decade.

Monitor and Observe Science & Technology Infusion Plan

Increase Resolution:

• Surface Parameters (COOP-M)

Improve Quality:

• Surface Moisture (ASOS Sensor 

Availability & Maintenance) 

• Liquid Precipitation (ASOS All 

Weather Precipitation Gauge)

Integrate Observing Systems:

• Surface Weather and Climate 

Networks (COOP-M) 

Increase Resolution:

• Clouds, Precipitation, & Winds

(WSR-88D ORDA)

• Total column moisture (GPS)

• Atmospheric Winds,

Temperature & RH (RRS)

Add New Elements:

• Chemical Emission Inventory (AQ)

• EPA Ozone (AQ)

Improve Quality:

• Atmospheric Winds (RRS)

• Vertical Wind Profilers (NPN 

449MHz Upgrade)

Integrate Observing Systems:

• Non-NOAA Satellites (METOP-1)

Land/Hydro

Observations

Increase Resolution:

• Sea Sfc Temps (GOES R& POESS)

Integrate Observing Systems:

• Network Integration (C-GOOS/CSI)

Improve Quality:

• Temp and Precip (21st Century COOP)

• Surface Mesonet Standards

• Surface Winds (ASOS Ice Free Wind 

Sensor)

Add New Elements:

• Radiation Budget (ASOS Sunshine 

Sensor)

Integrat Observing Systems:

• Temp and Precip (21st Century COOP)

• Stream Gauge Networks (21st Century 

COOP)

Increase Resolution:

• Atmospheric Parameters (Expanded 

Aircraft Targeting)

• Radiances (NPP Satellite)

• Clouds, Precipitation, & Winds 

(Supplemental Radars, NPP)

Add New Elements:

• Moisture (MDCRS)

• Precipitation Type (WSR-88D Dual 

Polarization)

Integrate Observing Systems:

Non-NOAA Satellite Systems (NASA Jason, 

GIFTS) 

Increase Resolution:

• Ocean Parameters (Argo, VOS)

• Ocean Height (JASON2) 

Integrate Observing Systems:

• Ocean Networks Integration 

(GOOS)

Near-Term Mid-Term Far-Term

Atmospheric

Observations

Ocean

Observations

Increase Resolution:

• Parameters in Targeted Regions (UAV, 

Mobile Platforms)

• Temp and Moisture Parameters 

(TAMDAR)

• Clouds, Precipitation, & Winds 

(Phased Array, X-Band Radar)

• Additional Visible, Infrared & 

Microwave Wavelengths (GOES-R & 

NPOESS)

Add New Elements:

• Cloud Characterization (ASOS and 

Lidar)

• Soil Parameters (GOES-R & NPOESS)

Integrate Observing Systems:

• Integrated Atmospheric Networks 

(RAOB, Aircraft, Profilers)

•Satellite Systems (NPOESS)

• Aircraft Observations (Command and 

Control)

Add New Elements:

• Soil Temperature & Moisture (21st 

Century COOP)

Capability

Figure 1. Monitor and observe science and technology infusion plan. Bulleted items are advances NWS will pursue to improve capabilities (denoted 

by color) over near-, mid-, and far-term time periods of the next decade. Objectives (see text for definitions) are underlined, items in 

parenthesis denote specific programs (see acronym list for defin itions).

Add New Elements:

• Solar Wind (GOES M - SXI) Integrate Observing Systems:

• Leverage NASA SOHO Satellite Space

Observations

Improve Quality:

• Deploy NexGen L-1 Satellite 

Figure 3: National Weather Service Monitor and Obs erve Science Technology Infusion Plan
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There are several collaborative research and development activities focused on improving 

operational weather forecasting capabilities. 

First, through the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), NOAA, NASA, and DoD 

are developing common NWP model and data assimilation infrastructure for:

• Accelerated development of assimilation algorithms for current operational 

satellite soundings from GOES, POES and DMSP

• Rapid assimilation of programmed operational (CrIS, ATMS and VIRS on 

NPOESS) and research satellite data (from QuickSCAT, TRMM, and MODIS) 

into operational models

Second, NOAA is working with NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) 

Center to accelerate the infusion of NASA science and technology to help meet Weather Forecast 

Office (WFO) needs for improved:

• Aviation forecasts

• Specification of convective initiation and evolution

• Specification of precipitation type

• Prediction of precipitation amounts and areal extent

SpoRT helps fill gaps in the NWS STIP, maps regional NWS WFO priorities to SpoRT research 

capabilities, prepares field offices for new forecasting tools (risk reduction), provides required 

training and develops assessment strategies. Figure 4 provides a vision of the improved forecast 

and warning lead times available as a result of effective NOAA/NASA collaboration through 

SPoRT.
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Earth Science Enterprise

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

LATEST Briefing to ILDC 9/6/04 

*Visionary Forecast and Warning Lead Times

Air Quality (city) 5 days

Maritime wind, wave - 5 hr

5 hr along flight 

corridor Turbulence, icing `-

Low ceiling, visibility - 5 hr (airport, port)

5 days 

(neighborhood) Winter storm 9 hr (county)

3 days/200 mi 

(coastline)

20 hr/400 mi 

(coastline) Hurricane

Flash flood 43 min (county) 4 hr (neighborhood)

Severe Storm 18 min (county) 4 hr (city)

Tornado 12 min 1 hr

2000 2012

Variable

(Lead Time)

*NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan: Lightning Observation and Forecast Benefit

Figure 4: National Weather Service Envisioned Weather Forecast Capabilities in 2012

Third, NASA has a Weather Research Roadmap, which is a combined vision of NASA, NOAA 

and the research community. This Roadmap outlines recommended steps to help the nation 

achieve improvement in near-, mid- and far-term forecasts using NASA’s latest data and modeling 

research. The Roadmap sets weather forecast improvement goals, identifies key steps to achieve 

those goals, identifies enabling research for improved weather forecasts, and links this weather 

program implementation plan to the NASA Earth Science Enterprise research strategy. Figure 5 

illustrates some key steps and a notional schedule for this plan.
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Systematic meas. of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface parameters

“How Can Weather Forecast Duration and Reliability Be Improved By New 

Space-Based Observations, Assimilation, and Modeling?”

By 2015: Weather and severe storm forecasting should be improved greatly:•Hurricane landfall accurate enough for evacuation decisions•Winter storm hazards determine at local levels for appropriate mitigation•Regional forecasting of rain and snow accurate for economic decisions

Steady, evolutionary improvement in weather prediction accuracy due to 

ongoing model refinement in operational agencies, finer-scale model 

resolution, improved use of probabilistic and statistical forecasting aided by 

multiple-component ensemble initializations, and incorporation of radar and 

aircraft-measurements

Knowledge Base

2002

2004

NRA

2007

NRA 2005 2006

2010

NRA 2003 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

Weather satellite

sensor and technique 

development; used by NOAA

Improvements require:

• Focused validation experiments 

• New Technology

• Impact Assessments

Observations of tropical 

rainfall/energy release

NASA/NOAA collaborative centers

High-resolution global 

measurements of temperature, 

moisture, cloud properties, and 

aerosols

Global monitoring of water, energy, clouds, and 

air quality/Operational prototype missions

Global tropospheric winds

Satellite-derived localized heating inputs will allow regional

models to have better predictive capabilities.

Use of NOAA operational models to 

optimize assimilation of NASA’s new 

satellite data will ensure realistic and 

accelerated use of new technology and 

techniques.

New, high-resolution temperature and moisture sounding 

will provide needed information to describe the 

atmospheric dynamics, cloud distributions for radiation 

modeling, aerosol concentrations for air quality 

projection, and better imagery of severe weather 

phenomena like hurricanes, floods, and snow/ice cover.

High-resolution 

sounding for fast 

forecast updates

Soil moisture

Funded

Unfunded

T

Proposed Global Precipitation

Continuous lightning

Improved 

forecasts

Improved physical 

& dynamical 

processes

Figure 5: NASA Weather Research Plan for Improving Weather Forecasting

Fourth, the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) is striving to increase scientific 

understanding of atmospheric conditions that cause dangerous weather impacting aviation. The 

research is aimed at producing weather observations, warnings, and forecasts that are more 

accurate and more accessible. Within the AWRP, FAA partners with NOAA, DoD, the National 

Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln 

Laboratory (MIT LL) to develop product development teams (PDTs). These PDTs are teams of 

scientists from the partner organizations who work together to solve aviation problems caused by 

weather. Teams are currently organized to address the following topics: in-flight icing, aviation 

forecasts, forecast quality, turbulence, winter weather, convective weather, terminal and national 

ceiling and visibility, model development and enhancement, advanced weather radar techniques, 

and oceanic weather.

Fifth, through USWRP, federal agencies are partnering with universities and other research 

institutions to mitigate the effects of weather disasters (such as hurricanes) and to improve 

predictions of precipitation and flooding. Four current USWRP initiatives promise immediate 

benefits to national security, energy, and the economy [23]:
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• The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) will be used by both 

researchers and forecasters, putting research improvements into immediate 

operational use. With USWRP and other funding, a prototype has been developed 

and is currently being tested. WRF is a collaborative effort among a number of 

government agencies and universities.

• The Hemispheric Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment 

(THORpex), a major international field experiment over the Pacific Ocean, will 

improve two- to ten-day forecasts for U.S. regions and urban areas. THORpex is 

planned for 2003-2010, and involves dozens of institutions, and researchers and 

operational meteorologists from 14 nations in the Northern Hemisphere.

• Operational testbeds will evaluate new weather prediction models and new 

forecasting techniques without interfering with the day-to-day operation of forecast 

centers. Two testbeds are currently being developed—one for hurricane 

predictions and another for modeling improvements.

• Short-term forecasting improvements will focus on a few hours out to two days and 

will improve predictions of severe storms, distribution of precipitation, 

temperature, and air quality.

This is not an exhaustive list of research programs, but illustrates the national focus on improving 

weather forecasting to benefit society.

Planned Programs Two new operational weather satellite systems – NPOESS and GOES-R –

will replace NOAA’s current polar and geostationary satellites in 2009 and 2012, respectively. 

Both will provide improved technologies to support the detection and monitoring of severe 

weather, tropical cyclones, volcanic eruptions and ash clouds. These instruments will have 

improved spatial and temporal resolution, and will include a wider range of spectral bands than 

current POES systems, although some bands currently available and used for fire detection will 

either be absent or too sensitive on the NPOESS equivalent for fire detection in daytime.

National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). In 1994, it was 

recognized that converging the existing polar-orbiting weather satellite systems from the 

Department of Commerce (DOC) and Department of Defense (DoD) would result in a more cost 

effective and higher performance integrated system. The National Polar-orbiting Operational 

Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is that system. The tri-agency Integrated Program 

Office (IPO), utilizing personnel from the Department of Commerce, Department of Defense and 

NASA, manages the NPOESS program. NPOESS is a satellite system used to monitor global 

environmental conditions, and collect and disseminate data related to weather, atmosphere, 

oceans, land and the near-space environment. These three agencies serve as the program 

directorates. The DOC (through NOAA) has overall responsibility for the program, as well as for 

satellite command, control and communications operations. The DoD (through the Air Force) has 

the primary responsibility to acquire and support the converged satellites. NASA has lead 

responsibility for facilitating development and insertion of new cost-effective technologies that 

may enhance the ability of the converged system to meet its operational requirements. By 
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converging U.S. polar-orbiting satellite programs (e.g. POES and DMSP), the NPOESS will 

reduce the number of polar-orbiting systems from four U.S. satellites to three. NPOESS goals 

include the incorporation of new technologies from NASA and encouragement of international 

cooperation. The current NPOESS mandate extends to the year 2018. In addition to costeffectiveness the National Polar-orbiting Operational Satellite System (NPOESS) increases the 

timeliness and accuracy of severe weather event forecasts. Advanced microwave imagerysounding data products will lead to improved prediction of ocean surface wind speed and 

direction, a major factor in the phenomenon we call weather. The knowledge obtained from 

NPOESS data reduces the potential loss of human life and property resulting from severe weather. 

An improved hurricane landfall forecast skill will save an estimated $1 million per mile of 

coastline that does not have to be evacuated. Support for general aviation, agriculture, and 

maritime activities aimed at improved early warnings will mitigate the devastating effects of 

floods through disaster planning and response. NPOESS will be instrumental in helping the 

military shift its tactical and strategic focus from "coping with weather" to anticipating and 

exploiting atmospheric and space environmental conditions (http://www.npoess.noaa.gov). 

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite System-R (GOES-R). The Geostationary 

Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-R, to be launched in 2012, will provide critical 

atmospheric, oceanic, climatic, solar and space data. The satellite will house an advanced imager, 

hyperspectral suite (including atmospheric sounding and coastal waters capabilities), lightning 

mapper, solar imager and space environment monitor. This new GOES, planned for launch in 

2012, will scan the Earth nearly five times faster than the current GOES. The satellites will 

provide the user community (television meteorologists, private weather companies, the aviation 

and agriculture communities, and national and international government agencies) with about one 

hundred times the amount of data currently provided (http://www.osd.noaa.gov). 

Table 6 presents all planned U.S. weather satellite systems, both operational and research:

Mission Organizations Associated 

Countries Environmental Parameters

Aquarius CONAE/NASA Argentina Ocean salinity

CALIPSO NASA/CNES France Clouds & aerosols

Cloudsat NASA Cloud structure

Glory NASA Aerosols & volcanic plumes

GOES-R series NOAA/NASA Weather

GPM Core NASA/JAXA Japan Precipitation

Hydros NASA/ASI/CSA Italy, Canada Soil moisture

NPOESS series NOAA/DoD/NASA Weather & environment

NPP NASA Weather & environment

ROCSAT-3/COSMIC NSPO/UCAR/NASA Taiwan Atmospheric temperature

Table 6: Currently Planned U.S. Weather-Related Satellites
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Other weather-related future solutions include: 

• Global expansion of the commercial aircraft Meteorological Data Collecting and 

Reporting System (MDCRS) and more use of local carriers; 

• Expanded deployment of surface-based radar wind profilers to observe the 

atmospheric boundary layer; 

• Enhancement of the NWS upper air network with GPS accuracy;

• Development and deployment of arrays of phased-array radars to significantly 

increase the quantity, quality and timeliness of weather information in extreme 

weather; 

• Operational deployment of high-altitude UAVs such as NASA’s Global Hawk. 

Most important is the need to integrate these observations to make optimum use of each and 

enhance information content.

Time table The vast number of weather forecasting advancements and improvements referred to 

above will likely occur over time. The schedule below provides a rough near-, mid- and far-term 

view of “what needs to be done and when” to attain the capabilities envisioned in the scenario 

described above.

Two-year time frame:

Initial investments in critical data gaps (e.g., atmospheric wind and humidity profiles, and soil 

moisture) and improved predictive models will augment the quality of forecasts of severe events 

and general weather conditions; greater sharing of these forecasts with developing countries will 

reduce impacts on life and property.

Six-year timeframe:

Further improvements in data and models will allow the production of reliable forecasts of severe 

weather, i.e. forecasts that include reliability/probability estimates as well as range of possible 

outcomes. This improved information will be used by newly established regional and local 

warning centers that will interact with local authorities and provide them tailored guidance. In 

addition, these new products and services will find great applications to support economic growth 

and sustainable development.
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Ten-year timeframe:

Full-fledged system will provide local authorities all the weather information they need to 

eliminate loss of life and greatly reduce property damage. 

6. Interagency and International Partnerships

Partnerships at government, academic and private sector levels are key for engendering the 

socioeconomic benefits of improved weather forecasting. A recent document by the National 

Academy of Sciences states “without a strong, effective collaboration among the government, 

academic, and private sectors, the general public would not have been the beneficiary of the great 

advances in weather and climate science and technology over the last 50 years” [17]. Various 

types of partnerships described below address aspects of observation, exploitation and 

dissemination.

Government-academic partnerships are necessary in order to have a strong scientific 

component in the national weather program. Many government-academic partnerships involve 

state and local agencie s that are beneficiaries of improved capabilities. A strong partnership exists 

between the government and the media in providing weather warnings to the public, especially 

during life-threatening events. Private sector companies have also responded to such governmentprivate sector partnerships by developing communications technologies and systems for tracking 

storms and tornadoes.

Academic-private sector partnerships reflect the fact that the work force today and in the future 

requires highly educated graduates with increasingly diverse skills. In addition to their 

“traditional” knowledge skills, meteorologists will need greater familiarity with economics, social 

science and/or specific industries (e.g., agriculture, health care, transportation, energy). By 

stimulating interaction among teachers, researchers and students at universities with forecasters 

and other professionals in the government and private sectors, cooperative programs should help 

meet the demand for a broadly trained and flexible work force [18]. 

Finally, in some cases all three sectors may cooperate because each has an interest in a particular 

improvement or because the expertise of all three sectors is required to address the problem and 

present opportunities for government-private-academic sector partnerships. Examples of 

successful partnerships are cited by NAS [19], and include the collocation of new weather service 

offices in academic research environments, the NWS cooperation with military and emergency 

responders under the Homeland Security Initiative, programs at the University Corporation for 

Atmospheric Research (UCAR), and advances to NEXRAD.

Table 7 illustrates some of the key weather partnerships nationally and internationally. OFCM 

coordinates the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research 

activities. The Operational Processing Centers partnership is coordinated through OFCM and 

emphasizes common approaches to better data assimilation, numerical weather prediction (NWP), 

and product and service development and delivery within the major governmental NWP centers. 
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The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU), collocated with the U.S. Air Force Range Weather 

Operations flight at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, is a technology transition organization 

jointly funded and supported by DoD, NASA and NOAA. The AMU is a “transition of research to 

operations” success story”, ensuring the sustainment of high quality operational weather 

forecasting support to the NASA Space Shuttle program and launches from the Air Force’s 

Eastern Range. The National Ice Center, a joint activity of the U.S. Navy (DoD), NOAA, and the 

U.S. Coast Guard (DHS), provides operational ice analyses for sea and lake ice for the Great 

Lakes and U.S. coastlines. The U.S. is an active partner with WMO and the World Weather 

Watch. In fact, the Federal Plan for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research addresses 

individual agency participation in WWW activities annually. The Joint Center for Satellite Data 

Assimilation is a virtual center, comprised of NASA, NOAA and DoD scientists, established to 

facilitate the use of satellite environmental data by developing new and powerful mathematical 

techniques to assimilate the data into numerical weather prediction models.

PARTNERSHIPS PARTICIPATING AGENCIES

Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and 

Supporting Research

OSTP, DOC, USDA, DoD, DOE, DOI, 

DOS, OMB, DOT, DHS, NASA, NTSB, 

EPA, NSF, Nuclear Regulatory 

Commission

U.S. Weather Research Program NOAA, NSF, NASA, DoD, DOT, DOE, 

USDA, NCAR, American Meteorological 

Society

Operational Processing Centers NOAA (NCEP), U.S. Air Force, U.S. Navy

Applied Meteorology Unit DoD, NASA, NOAA

National Ice Center DHS, DoD, NOAA

World Meteorological Organization 186 countries throughout the world

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation DoD, NASA, NOAA

Table 7: Key National and International Weather Partnerships

7. U.S. Capacity Building Needs

Operational weather data are among the most valuable Earth observation capacities that nations 

can have. Each year hazardous weather and floods kill tens of thousands of people and cause 

many billions of dollars in infrastructure damage. Such losses have already been reduced 

substantially in developed countries through use of Earth observations to produce timely, accurate 

forecasts and warnings. Creating greater capacity to observe the global environment is 

fundamental to building more accurate forecasts and extending this capability to developing 

nations.

In countries where limited or no operational weather capability exists, priority needs include 

partnering with developed nations for access to high-cost weather data and prediction services; 

partnering with neighboring nations to develop and deliver regional warnings; and local education 
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and training for use of warnings by decision makers and the public so they can most effectively 

and efficiently exploit existing weather information services worldwide.

Expansion of observing capacity is needed to detect precursor environmental conditions that

constitute the foundation for improving all weather and climate services, as called for in the WMO 

World Weather Watch Plan. Highest priority should be given to filling gaps in the in situ and 

space-based observation capacity that limits data assimilation and predictive capabilities. 

Additionally, emphasis is needed on open global sharing of data. Next, these data must be 

exploited through better research, advanced data assimilation and predictive models, building 

telecommunications infrastructure capacity, and transforming weather predictions into formats 

understandable to decision makers and the public.

Needs for building capacity in the U.S. can be identified in part from existing strategic and 

roadmap documents. These needs include:

• Developing technologies that enhance systems for observing weather phenomena 

and for assimilating and analyzing resulting data.

• Maintaining a research staff of sufficient size and expertise at national weather 

centers to develop new forecast techniques and products.

• Working with the academic community to improve weather prediction models.

• Developing and maintaining the capability to test and evaluate new algorithms and 

forecast models in parallel with operational systems.

• Obtaining feedback from the user community (e.g., agriculture, transportation, 

insurance, emergency managers, the media and the general public).

• Securing sufficient budgets to develop necessary algorithms to allow the 

introduction of new sensors into operational systems, and assigning the 

responsibility for technology transitions.

• Providing for adequate computer resources, including parallel processing and 

efficient code development, and model archiving systems.

• Developing personnel with proper understanding of user needs, as well as 

technological capabilities, including communications expertise.

•

NWS forecast and warning services will be an essential component of the information on weather, 

climate, hydrology, space weather, air quality and other environmental factors used by the 

expanded provider network to serve a variety of socioeconomic needs. 

8. Conclusions

From an international to a local perspective, improving the accuracy, timeliness, and reliability of 

weather information is critically important. Gradually, more nations are recognizing the societal 

benefits to be gained through Earth observations and the efficiencies to be realized by working 
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together. Within the U.S., an Integrated Earth Observation System will help realize those 

efficiencies

For the U.S., there is synergy between improving weather forecasting and the development of an 

Integrated Earth Observation System. Cooperation among weather forecasting agencies, on the 

national and international level, is a benchmark for other Earth observation communities. Weather 

forecasters have made significant progress in establishing common requirements across the 

spectrum of users (public and private sectors and academia). Improvements in weather forecasting 

capabilities have been dramatic over the past 20 years, but much still needs to be done to meet 

users’ expectations. Continued weather forecasting improvements and a sustained weather 

information infrastructure will depend on effective partnerships, implementing appropriate 

components of existing plans, and developing and implementing the Integrated Earth Observation 

pathway forward.
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References

1. Jones, Del, Forecast: 1 degree is worth $1B in Power Savings, USA Today, June 19, 

2001.

2. Evaluation of Erosion Hazards, H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and 

the Environment, Washington, DC, April 2000. 

3. Use and Benefits of the NWS River and Flood Forecasts, National Hydrologic 

Warning Council, April 1, 2002.

4. McCarl, B., and Kim, M., The Value of El Nino and NAO Information in Worldwide 

Agriculture, Working Paper, Department of Agriculture Economics, Texas A&M 

University, College Station, Texas.

5. Framework Document, Adopted by Earth Observation II at Tokyo, Japan, April 25, 

2004.

6. USWRP, 2003: The U.S. Weather Research Program: National Need, Vision, & 

Interagency Plan for FY 2000-2006, http://uswrp.org. 

7. National Research Council (NRC). 2003a. Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in 

Weather and Climate Services. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

8. WMO Vision Document

9. NRC. 2001a. Transforming Remote Sensing Data into Information and Applications. 

National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

10. NRC. 2001b. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. National 

Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

11. NRC. 2003b. Satellite Observations of the Earth’s Environment: Accelerating the 

Transition of Research to Operations. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

12. Dutton, J.A. 2002. Opportunities and priorities in a new era for weather and climate 

services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 83:1303-1311.

13. Zeng, L. 2000. Weather derivatives and weather insurance: Concept, application and 

analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 77:19-40.

14. Committee on Earth Observation Satellites, Earth Observation Handbook, 2002, 

http://www.ceos.org. 

15. Sixth Annual WMO Long Term Plan (2004-2011) (Draft)

16. Fritsch, J.M. and R.E. Carbone. 2004. Improving Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts 

in the Warm Season—A USWRP Research and Development Strategy. Bulletin of the 

American Meteorological Society. 85: 955-965.

17. NRC. 2003a.

18. Ibid.

19. Ibid.

20. NRC. 2003b.

21. NWS Science & Technology Plan: FY 2004, available at http://www.weather.gov/ost. 

22. NWS Service Improvement Plan: FY 2004, available at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/. 

23. USWRP. 2002. Saving Lives, Money, and Time: Better Weather Forecasts for the 

Nation. http://uswrp.org 

24. “A Vision for the National Weather Service: Road Map for the Future,” The National 

Academy of Sciences, 1999.
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25. NASA Earth Science Enterprise, 2000. Understanding Earth System Change: NASA's 

Earth Science Enterprise Research Strategy for 2000-2010. 

http://www.earth.nasa.gov/visions/researchstrat/Research_Strategy.htm 

26. NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, 2003. 

Priorities for the 21st Century: A Strategic Plan for NOAA’s Satellite and Information 

Service For FY 2003-2008 and Beyond. October 2003. 17 pp. 

http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov