14

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### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14-1 14.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 14-1 14.3 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14-2 14.4 IMPACT OF STA NDARDS ON ELECTRICITY PRICES AND ASSOCIATED BENEFITS FOR CONSUME RS ................................................................................. 14-10 14.4.1 Impact on Electricity Prices ......................................................................................... 14-10 14.4.2 Impact of Changes in Electricity Price on Electricity Users ........................................ 14-14 14.4.3 Discussion of Savings in Electricity Expenditures ...................................................... 14-15

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 AEO 2010 Reference Case Forecast .................................................................. 14-3 Table 14.3.2 Clothes Drye rs Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ................................................ 14-4 Table 14.3.3 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ................................................ 14-4 Table 14.3.4 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ................................................ 14-5 Table 14.3.5 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ................................................ 14-5 Table 14.3.6 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast ................................................ 14-6 Table 14.3.7 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast ................................................ 14-6 Table 14.3.8 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast .................................. 14-7 Table 14.3.9 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast .................................. 14-7 Table 14.3.10 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast .................................. 14-8 Table 14.3.11 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast .................................. 14-8 Table 14.3.12 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast .................................. 14-9 Table 14.3.13 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast .................................. 14-9 Table 14.3.14 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2043 Under Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Trial Standard Levels ........................................... 14-10 Table 14.4.1 Cumulative NPV of the Economy- Wide Savings in Electricity Expenditures Due to the Projected Decline in Electricity Prices Resulting from the Proposed Standards for Clothes Dryers and Room Air Conditioners* ................................................................................................... 14-15

LIST OF FIGURES

Figur e 14.4.1 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended Clothes Dryer Energy Conservation Standard ........................................................................ 14-11 Figure 14.4.2 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standard .................................................... 14-1214

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### Figure 14.4.3 Effect of Proposed Clothes Dryer Energy Conservation Standard on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users) ...................................................... 14-13 Figure 14.4.4 Effect of Proposed Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standard on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users) ................................................. 14-1414 -1 

### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALY SIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of its amended standard levels on the electric and natural gas utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). a 

### NEMS is a public domain, multi -sectored, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce an energy forecast for the United States, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) . The AEO for 2010 (AEO2010) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2035. 1 

### DOE used a variant of this model, referred to as NEMS-BT, b 

### to account for the impacts of clothes d ryer and room air conditioner energy conservation standards. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the AEO2010 Reference Case and for cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of
assump tions as the AEO2010 . The AEO2010 reference case corresponds to medium economic growth.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed capacity and generation that result for each trial standard level (TSL) by plant type, as well as changes in res idential electricity and natural gas consumption.

NEMS

- BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the analysis of energy conservation standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy supply and demand sectors, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS- BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of energy conservation standards than considering only average effects.



### 14.2 METHODOLOGY

NEMS provides reference case load shapes for several end uses. The model uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to build up a projection of the total electric system load growth for each region, which it uses in turn to predict the necessary additions to capacity. DOE uses NEMS

- BT to account for the implementation of energy conservation standards by

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003 , DOE/EIA

- 0581(2003), March, 2003.

b DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are vari ations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS

BT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS

- BT was previously called NEMS

- BRS.14 -2 

### decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. For clothes dryers the drying end use

was decremented and for room air con ditioners the c ooling end use. These decrements are also divided amongst the nine U.S. Census divisions based upon the share of energy end use consumption in each division, as given in NEMS. Clothes dryers and room air conditioners will have different allocations among the censu s divisions.

DOE used the site energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (chapter 10) for each TSL as input to NEMS -BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for NEMS -BT to produce stable results out of the range of nu merical noise is larger than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher energy use reduction levels in NEMS-BT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2035, other parts of the energy conservation standards analysis extend th rough the year 204 3. It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2035. While it might seem reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be contradictory. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2035 are simple replications of year 2035 results. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS -BT results.



### 14.3 RESULTS

This utility impact analysis reports NE MS -BT forecasts for residential sector electricity consumption, natural gas consumption, total electricity generation by fuel type, and installed electricity generation capacity by fuel type. Results are pres ented in five

- year increments through 2035. Beyond 2035, an extrapolation through 2043 for each TSL represents a simple replication of the 2035 results.

The results from the AEO2010 Refe rence Case are shown in Table 14 .3.1.

A separate set of TSLs wa s modeled for room air conditioners and clothes washers. The results for the clothes dryer TSLs are presented in Tables 1 4.3.2 through 14.3.7, and the results for room air conditioner TSLs are presented in Tables 1 4.3.8 through 14.3.13. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 14.2, for total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity.

The considered clothes dryer TSLs reduce electricity as well as natural gas consumption compared to the AEO2010 Reference Case. The electrici ty savings predicted by the NIA Model for all clothes dryer products range from 0.001 to 1.02 percent of total residential electricity consumption in the year 2035. The natural gas savings range from 0.000 percent to 0.122 percent of total residential natural gas savings in the year 2035.14 -3 

### The considered room air condition er TSLs reduce only electricity consumption compared to the AEO2010 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA Model for all room air conditioner products range from 0.049 to 0.206 percent of total residential electricity consumption in the year 2035.



### Table 14.3.1 AEO 2010 Reference Case Forecast 

## NEMS-BT Results: AEO2010 Reference

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1
Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 1,359 1,388 1,400 1,472 1,553 1,637 1,707

Total U.S. Electric Generation 3

Coal (TWh) 2,013 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,305
Gas (TWh) 759 857 690 769 886 1,018 1,095
Petroleum (TWh) 122 45 46 47 48 48 49
Nuclear (TWh) 782 813 834 883 886 886 895
Renewables (TWh) 358 462 649 714 797 850 890
Total (TWh) 4 4,034 4,005 4,257 4,503 4,746 5,012 5,234

Installed Generating Capacity 5
Coal (GW) 314 321 325 326 326 330 337
Other Fossil (GW) 6 439 468 445 446 467 501 534
Nuclear (GW) 100 102 105 111 111 111 113
Renewables (GW) 99 133 171 177 186 196 209 Total (GW) 7 952 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192

1 Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2010: Energy Consumption, Residential

2 Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2010: Electricity Sales by Sector

3 Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2010: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

4 Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

5 Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2010: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

6 Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

7 Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells14 -4 

### Table 14.3.2 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

Table 14.3.3 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,472 1,553 1,637 1,707 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 -0.009 -0.011 -0.013 -0.014 -0.015 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.29 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.97 5.04 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (Quads) 1.59 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 886 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.001 -0.001 -0.005 -0.005 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Renewables (TWh) 462 649 714 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,503 4,746 5,012 5,234 Total (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.005 -0.008 -0.010 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 337 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 133 171 177 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,553 1,637 1,707 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.041 -0.148 -0.242 -0.312 -0.361 -0.397 -0.415 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.29 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.97 5.04 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (Quads) 1.59 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.004 0.010 -0.033 0.000 -0.053 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052 Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.006 0.037 -0.038 -0.132 -0.136 -0.123 -0.123 -0.123 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023 Renewables (TWh) 462 648 714 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.010 -0.091 -0.081 -0.099 -0.106 -0.129 -0.129 -0.129 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,746 5,011 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.000 -0.044 -0.153 -0.232 -0.296 -0.329 -0.329 -0.329

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 337 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.008 -0.010 -0.022 -0.021 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 Renewables (GW) 133 171 177 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.003 -0.025 -0.025 -0.022 -0.024 -0.031 -0.031 -0.031 Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.003 -0.034 -0.036 -0.046 -0.049 -0.060 -0.060 -0.060 Extrapolation14 -5 

### Table 14.3.4 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

Table 14.3.5 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,552 1,635 1,705 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.24 -0.88 -1.45 -1.86 -2.15 -2.36 -2.47 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.29 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.97 5.04 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (Quads) 1.59 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.02 0.06 -0.20 0.00 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 Gas (TWh) 857 691 769 885 1,017 1,094 Gas (TWh) 0.04 0.22 -0.23 -0.79 -0.81 -0.73 -0.73 -0.73 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 796 849 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.06 -0.55 -0.49 -0.59 -0.63 -0.77 -0.77 -0.77 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,010 5,232 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.26 -0.91 -1.38 -1.76 -1.96 -1.96 -1.96

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 337 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.009 -0.008 -0.008 -0.026 -0.016 -0.016 -0.016 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.048 -0.062 -0.134 -0.124 -0.136 -0.136 -0.136 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 112 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.017 -0.149 -0.148 -0.131 -0.141 -0.187 -0.187 -0.187 Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.017 -0.206 -0.217 -0.273 -0.291 -0.358 -0.358 -0.358 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,552 1,635 1,705 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.24 -0.85 -1.40 -1.79 -2.07 -2.28 -2.38 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.29 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.96 5.04 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 Other (Quads) 1.59 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.02 0.06 -0.19 0.00 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 Gas (TWh) 857 691 769 885 1,017 1,094 Gas (TWh) 0.04 0.22 -0.22 -0.76 -0.78 -0.71 -0.71 -0.71 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 796 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.06 -0.53 -0.47 -0.57 -0.61 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,010 5,232 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.25 -0.88 -1.33 -1.70 -1.89 -1.89 -1.89

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 337 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.009 -0.007 -0.007 -0.025 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.046 -0.059 -0.129 -0.120 -0.131 -0.131 -0.131 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 112 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.016 -0.144 -0.143 -0.127 -0.136 -0.181 -0.181 -0.181 Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.017 -0.199 -0.210 -0.263 -0.280 -0.345 -0.345 -0.345 Extrapolation14 -6 

### Table 14.3.6 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

Table 14.3.7 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,399 1,468 1,548 1,630 1,700 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.87 -3.15 -5.15 -6.62 -7.65 -8.42 -8.79 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007 Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.96 5.03 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007 Other (Quads) 1.59 1.44 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,208 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.08 0.22 -0.70 0.01 -1.12 -1.11 -1.11 -1.11 Gas (TWh) 857 691 768 883 1,015 1,092 Gas (TWh) 0.14 0.80 -0.82 -2.81 -2.90 -2.61 -2.61 -2.61 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 894 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49 Renewables (TWh) 462 647 712 795 848 888 Renewables (TWh) -0.21 -1.95 -1.73 -2.11 -2.24 -2.73 -2.73 -2.73 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,256 4,499 4,741 5,005 5,227 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.93 -3.26 -4.93 -6.28 -6.98 -6.98 -6.98

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.17 -0.22 -0.48 -0.44 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 112 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 195 209 Renewables (GW) -0.06 -0.53 -0.53 -0.47 -0.50 -0.67 -0.67 -0.67 Total (GW) 1,024 1,045 1,058 1,090 1,137 1,191 Total (GW) -0.06 -0.73 -0.78 -0.97 -1.04 -1.27 -1.27 -1.27 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,398 1,464 1,542 1,622 1,690 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -1.98 -7.20 -11.76 -15.11 -17.47 -19.21 -20.07 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007 Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.96 5.03 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007 Other (Quads) 1.59 1.44 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,089 2,128 2,206 2,302 Coal (TWh) 0.04 -0.04 -1.52 -1.39 -2.77 -3.05 -3.05 -3.05 Gas (TWh) 858 691 767 878 1,010 1,088 Gas (TWh) 0.48 1.05 -2.52 -7.27 -7.77 -7.30 -7.30 -7.30 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 -0.05 -0.07 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 894 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 Renewables (TWh) 462 645 711 793 846 885 Renewables (TWh) -0.50 -3.09 -3.00 -3.87 -4.09 -5.10 -5.10 -5.10 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,255 4,496 4,733 4,997 5,217 Total (TWh) 0.01 -2.09 -7.07 -12.57 -14.69 -16.29 -16.29 -16.29

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.12 -0.07 -0.07 -0.19 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 466 500 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.25 -0.38 -0.82 -0.96 -0.88 -0.88 -0.88 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 112 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 185 195 208 Renewables (GW) -0.15 -0.86 -0.87 -0.78 -0.83 -1.12 -1.12 -1.12 Total (GW) 1,024 1,045 1,058 1,089 1,136 1,190 Total (GW) -0.15 -1.22 -1.32 -1.67 -1.98 -2.27 -2.27 -2.27 Extrapolation14 -7 

### Table 14.3.8 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

Table 14.3.9 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,552 1,636 1,707 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.300 -0.837 -1.030 -1.009 -0.840 -0.644 -0.560

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.021 -0.141 -0.086 -0.158 -0.195 -0.195 -0.195 Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.063 0.060 -0.272 -0.515 -0.364 -0.237 -0.237 -0.237 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.006 -0.006 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Renewables (TWh) 462 648 714 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.060 -0.328 -0.297 -0.324 -0.284 -0.220 -0.220 -0.220 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,011 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.002 -0.292 -0.716 -0.931 -0.811 -0.658 -0.658 -0.658

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.007 -0.011 -0.010 -0.018 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.094 -0.129 -0.192 -0.262 -0.271 -0.271 -0.271 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 133 171 177 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.018 -0.091 -0.086 -0.076 -0.067 -0.055 -0.055 -0.055 Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.018 -0.192 -0.226 -0.278 -0.347 -0.348 -0.348 -0.348 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,552 1,636 1,706 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.36 -1.00 -1.23 -1.21 -1.03 -0.83 -0.74

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.026 -0.168 -0.103 -0.191 -0.239 -0.239 -0.239 Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.075 0.072 -0.325 -0.615 -0.438 -0.292 -0.292 -0.292 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.007 -0.007 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.072 -0.392 -0.354 -0.386 -0.342 -0.271 -0.271 -0.271 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,011 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.002 -0.348 -0.854 -1.112 -0.976 -0.809 -0.809 -0.809

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.009 -0.013 -0.012 -0.022 -0.028 -0.028 -0.028 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.112 -0.154 -0.229 -0.315 -0.334 -0.334 -0.334 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.021 -0.109 -0.103 -0.091 -0.081 -0.067 -0.067 -0.067 Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,090 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.021 -0.230 -0.269 -0.332 -0.418 -0.429 -0.429 -0.429 Extrapolation14 -8 

### Table 14.3.10 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

Table 14.3.11 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,470 1,552 1,636 1,706 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.42 -1.13 -1.32 -1.25 -1.05 -0.84 -0.74

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.030 -0.190 -0.110 -0.196 -0.244 -0.244 -0.244 Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.091 0.085 -0.366 -0.658 -0.452 -0.297 -0.297 -0.297 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.003 -0.008 -0.008 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.087 -0.462 -0.400 -0.413 -0.352 -0.276 -0.276 -0.276 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,011 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.41 -0.96 -1.19 -1.01 -0.82 -0.82 -0.82

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.010 -0.014 -0.013 -0.023 -0.029 -0.029 -0.029 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.132 -0.174 -0.245 -0.324 -0.340 -0.340 -0.340 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.026 -0.128 -0.116 -0.097 -0.084 -0.068 -0.068 -0.068 Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,090 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.026 -0.271 -0.304 -0.356 -0.431 -0.436 -0.436 -0.436 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,470 1,552 1,635 1,706 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.56 -1.50 -1.79 -1.74 -1.52 -1.27 -1.15

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.040 -0.254 -0.149 -0.274 -0.353 -0.353 -0.353 Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.121 0.112 -0.489 -0.894 -0.629 -0.430 -0.430 -0.430 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.004 -0.011 -0.010 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 796 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.115 -0.611 -0.534 -0.561 -0.491 -0.399 -0.399 -0.399 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,501 4,744 5,010 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.54 -1.29 -1.61 -1.40 -1.19 -1.19 -1.19

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.014 -0.019 -0.018 -0.032 -0.041 -0.041 -0.041 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.175 -0.232 -0.333 -0.452 -0.492 -0.492 -0.492 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.034 -0.169 -0.155 -0.132 -0.116 -0.099 -0.099 -0.099 Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,090 1,137 1,192 Total (GW) -0.034 -0.358 -0.406 -0.483 -0.600 -0.632 -0.632 -0.632 Extrapolation14 -9 

### Table 14.3.12 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

Table 14.3.13 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,399 1,469 1,551 1,634 1,705 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.81 -2.21 -2.69 -2.70 -2.44 -2.10 -1.90

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.06 -0.37 -0.22 -0.42 -0.57 -0.57 -0.57 Gas (TWh) 857 690 768 884 1,017 1,094 Gas (TWh) 0.17 0.16 -0.72 -1.35 -0.97 -0.69 -0.69 -0.69 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 796 849 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.17 -0.88 -0.78 -0.85 -0.76 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,256 4,501 4,743 5,010 5,232 Total (TWh) 0.01 -0.78 -1.89 -2.43 -2.17 -1.91 -1.91 -1.91

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.05 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.25 -0.34 -0.50 -0.70 -0.79 -0.79 -0.79 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.05 -0.24 -0.23 -0.20 -0.18 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 Total (GW) 1,024 1,045 1,058 1,090 1,137 1,191 Total (GW) -0.05 -0.52 -0.60 -0.73 -0.93 -1.01 -1.01 -1.01 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,399 1,469 1,550 1,633 1,704 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -1.08 -2.99 -3.70 -3.78 -3.52 -3.11 -2.85

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,129 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.08 -0.51 -0.31 -0.59 -0.81 -0.81 -0.81 Gas (TWh) 857 691 768 884 1,017 1,094 Gas (TWh) 0.23 0.22 -0.97 -1.85 -1.37 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99 Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Renewables (TWh) 462 647 713 796 849 889 Renewables (TWh) -0.22 -1.18 -1.06 -1.16 -1.06 -0.92 -0.92 -0.92 Total (TWh) 4,005 4,256 4,500 4,743 5,009 5,231 Total (TWh) 0.01 -1.05 -2.56 -3.35 -3.04 -2.75 -2.75 -2.75

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.07 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 467 500 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.34 -0.46 -0.69 -0.98 -1.14 -1.14 -1.14 Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.07 -0.33 -0.31 -0.27 -0.25 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23 Total (GW) 1,024 1,045 1,058 1,090 1,137 1,191 Total (GW) -0.07 -0.69 -0.81 -1.00 -1.30 -1.46 -1.46 -1.46 Extrapolation14

- 10 

### Table 14.3.14 presents the estimated reduction in electricity generating capacity in 2043 for the TSLs that DOE considered in this rulemaking.

Table 14.3.14 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2043 Under Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Trial Standard Levels TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

Clothes Dryers Gigawatts 

### 0.002 0.060 0.358 0.345 1.27 2.27 Room Air Conditioners 0.348 0.429 0.436 0.632 1.01 1.46

14.4 IMPACT OF STANDARDS ON ELECTRICITY PRICES A ND ASSOCIATED
BENEFITS FOR CONSUME RS

Using the framework of the utility impact analysis , DOE analyzed the potential impact on electricity prices resultin g from the standards on clothes dryer and room air conditioner products. Associated benefits for all electricity users in all sectors of the economy are then derived from these price impacts.

DOE’s analysis of energy price impacts used NEMS

- BT in a similar manner as described in section 14.2. Like other widely- used energy

- economic mod els, NEMS uses elasticities to estimate the energy price change that would result from a change (increase or decrease) in energy demand. The elasticity of price to a decrease in demand is the “inverse price elasticity.” The calculated inverse price elasticity based on NEMS -BT simulations differs throughout the forecast period in response to the dynamics of supply and demand for electricity.

14.4.1 Impact on Electricity Prices

DOE analyzed the electricity price effect of clothes dryers and room air conditioners separately . A separate regression was completed for both products to determine their effect on electricity prices independent of one another. After generating results using higher decr ements to energy consumption, a regressed interpolation toward the origin derived the price effects associated with the energy savings of the TSLs. Results were then scaled to the appropriate TSL ; the amended standard for both of these products is TSL 4

. The electricity price impacts for clothes dryers and room air conditioners are presented separately below.

Figure 1 4.4.1 and 14 .4.2 show the annual change in U.S. electricity sales for the amended standards, relative to the base case which involves no new standards.14

- 11 

### Figure 14.4.1 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended Clothes Dryer Energy Conservation Standard - 2.0 - 1.8 - 1.6 - 1.4 - 1.2 - 1.0 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0.0

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034TWH 

## Change in Electricity Sales for Clothes Dryers

TSL 414

- 12 

### Figure 14.4.2 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standard

Figures 14.4.3 and 14.4.4 show the annual change in average U.S. price for electricity, relative to the Reference case, projected to result from the amended standards. For clothes dryers the price reduction averages 0.001 cents per kWh (in 2009$), or a price redu ction of 0.01 percent, over t he period from 2014 through 2035. For room air conditioners the price reduction
averages 0.003 cents per kWh (in 2009$), or a price reduction of 0.03 percent over the same period. - 1.6 - 1.4 - 1.2 - 1.0 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0.0

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034TWH 

## Change in Electricity Sales for Room Air Conditioners

TSL 414

- 13 

### Figure 14.4.3 Effect of Proposed Clothes Dryer Energy Conservation Standard on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users) - 0.00003 - 0.00002 - 0.00001 0.00000

2014 2019 2024 2029 20342009$/KWH 

## Change in Electricity Prices for Clothes Dryers

TSL 414

- 14 

### Figure 14.4.4 Effect of Proposed Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standard on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users)

14.4.2 Impact of Changes in Electricity Price on Electricity Users

Using the estimated electricity price impacts, DOE calculated the nominal savings in total electricity expenditures in each year by multiplying the annual change in the average

- user price for electricity by the total ann ual U.S. electricity sales forecast by NEMS, adjusted for the impact of the standards. The amended standards would continue to reduce demand for electricity after 2035 (which is the last year in the NEMS forecast). DOE’s estimate for 2036–2043 (the period used to estimate the NPV of the national consumer benefits from amended standards) multiplied the average electricity price reduction in 2015 –2035 by estimated tota l annual electricity sales in 2036–2043. c 

### DOE then discounted the stream of reduced expenditures to calculate a NPV.

Table 14 .4.1 shows the calculated NPV of the economy- wide savings in electricity expenditures for each considered TSL at 3 -percent and 7-percent discount rates. The need to extrapolate price effects and electricity sales beyond 2035 suggests that one should interpret the post-2035 results as a rough indication of the benefits to electricity users in the post-2035 period.

c The estimation of electricity sales after 2035 uses t he average annual growth rate in 2031

- 2035 of total U.S. electricity sales forecasted by NEMS. This forecast includes the impact of the standards. 

### - 0.00004 - 0.00003 - 0.00002 - 0.00001 0.00000

2014 2019 2024 2029 20342009$/KWH 

## Change in Electricity Prices for Room Air Conditioners

TSL 414

- 15 

### Table 14.4.1 Cumulative NPV of the Economy- Wide Savings in Electricity Expenditures Due to the Projected Decline in Electricity Prices Resulting from the Proposed Standards for Clothes Dryers and Room Air Conditioners* Discount Rate Clothes Dryers (billion $2009) Room Air Conditioners (billion $2009) 3 percent 0. 862 2. 098 7 percent 0.4 09 1. 051

* Impacts for units sold from 2014 to 2043



### 14.4.3 Discussion of Savings in Electricity Expenditures

Although the aggregate benefits for all electricity users are potentially large, there may be negative effects on the actors involved in electricity supply. The electric power industry is a complex mix of power plant providers, fuel suppliers, electricity generators, and electricity distributors. While the distribution of electricity is regulated everywhere, the institutional structure of the power sector varies, and has changed over time. For these reasons, an assessment of impacts on the actors involved i n electricity supply from reduction in electricity demand associated with energy conservation standards is beyond the scope of this rulemaking.

In considering the potential benefits to electricity users, DOE takes under advisement the provided by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis (OMB Circular A-4 (Sept. 17, 2003), section E, “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs”). Specifically, at page 38, Circular A

- 4 instructs that transfers should be excluded from the estimates of the benefits and costs of a regulation. DOE is continuing to investigate the extent to which change in electricity prices projected to result from standards represents a net gain to society.14

- 16 

### REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration, Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference Case Service Report , 2010. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2010 ).

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ >