THE CHANGING FACE OF
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U.S. Department of Transportation

Bureau of Transportation Statistics

The Changing Face of Transportation

BTS00-007

Washington, DC: 2000

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Bureau of Transportation Statistics

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As stewards of America’s transportation system, the U.S. Department of Transportation remains

vigilant in the face of change and visionary in preparing for the future. We know that to be

effective, our transportation system must be international in reach–linking us to new markets

and destinations around the world; intermodal in form–gaining from the combined strengths of

the individual modes; intelligent in character–harnessing the tremendous power of technological

advancement to expand our capabilities; and inclusive in service–moving all forward and

leaving no one behind. Perhaps, above all, it must be innovative–creating a system that will

grow safer and more efficient over time.

We also know transportation is about more than concrete, asphalt, and steel. It is about people

and their daily lives. It is about their dreams and aspirations, their connection to the economy

and to each other. Transportation is the tie that binds.

As we take stock of the challenges we face, the Department has embraced a decisionmaking

process that ensures the public’s interests are served and that the public and all other stakeholders are involved in the process. How is this process different from others before it? The

key is a tenacious focus on outcomes–beyond inputs, activities, and outputs–and a commitment

to measure our performance against the goals we set. We hold ourselves accountable, but our

plans aren’t prescriptive; they are inherently flexible. This means that we need high-quality,

objective data to guide our programs and judge our success. In fact, Congress created the

Bureau of Transportation Statistics as an operating administration within the U.S. Department of

Transportation precisely for this purpose–to ensure the availability and reliability of relevant

data for decisionmaking in transportation.

We are moving from strength to strength, taking our planning process to a new level with the

assistance of both this document, The Changing Face of Transportation, and its companion

document, Transportation Decision Making: Policy Architecture for the 21st Century. As a

companion document, the Policy Architecture report will help translate the trends we see and the

goals we set into choices that will guide decisionmaking for the next 25 years. Thus, we build

on the foundation laid down by those who have gone before us, those who carved the path in

National Transportation Trends and Choices 25 years ago.

I invite you to continue improving our nation’s transportation system so that it will not only serve

the needs of today’s Americans, but tomorrow’s Americans as well. Each of us has an important role in helping to shape and pave the way for the future in this, the new century and the

new millennium. Together we will continue to provide the best transportation system in the

world.

Rodney E. Slater

Secretary o f Transportation

A Message from

Secretary Slater
Acknowledgments

U.S. Department of Transportation

Rodney E. Slater

Secretary

Mortimer Downey

Deputy Secretary

Eugene A. “Gene” Conti

Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy

Stephen Van Beek

Associate Deputy Secretary

and Director of Intermodalism

Jerry L. Malone

Chief of Staff

Norma Krayem

Deputy Chief of Staff

Modal Administrators

James Loy, USCG

Jane Garvey, FAA

Kenneth R. Wykle, FHWA

Jolene Molitoris, FRA

Sue Bailey, NHTSA

Nuria I. Fernandez, FTA

Albert S. Jacquez, SLSDC

John E. Graykowski (acting), MARAD

Kelley Coyner, RSPA

Ashish K. Sen, BTS

Clyde J. Hart, Jr. (acting), FMCSA

George C. Fields, TASC

Office of the Inspector General

Kenneth Mead

Assistant Secretaries

Melissa J. Allen, Assistant Secretary for

Administration

Peter “Jack” Basso, Assistant Secretary for

Budget and Programs

Michael J. Frazier, Assistant Secretary for

Governmental Affairs

Rosalind A. Knapp, Deputy General Counsel

Francisco J. Sanchez, Assistant Secretary for

Aviation and International Affairs

Mary L. Trupo, Assistant to the Secretary and

Director of Public Affairs

Bureau of Transportation Statistics

David Banks

Russ Capelle

Lillian Chapman

Ed Christopher

Marsha Fenn

Wendell Fletcher

Deborah Johnson

Terry Klein

Rick Kowalewski

Susan Lapham

Chip Moore

Lisa Randall

Joanne Sedor

Peg Young

Carole Zok

Office of the Secretary, Transportation

Policy Development

Peter Belenky

Jack Bennett

Robert Clarke

Nancy DiModica

Arnold Konheim

Ira Laster

Linda Lawson

Thomas Marchessault

Camille Mittelholtz

Jeanne O’Leary

Elizabeth Parker

Todd Ramsden

Ken Reinertson

Sherry Riklin

Robert Stein

Carl Swerdloff

Donald Trilling

Edward Weiner

For their dedicated efforts in

producing this document, the

Department extends special

thanks to

Deepak Virmani,

Chip Moore,

Susan Lapham, and

Felix Ammah-Tagoe

iv
Acknowledgments

Other Major Contributors

Felix Ammah-Tagoe

William Anderson

Lata Chatterjee

Martha Courtney

Deborah Davidson

Ron Duych

Jennifer Eddy

Alexander Elles-Boyle

Matthew Gifford

David Greene

Lance Grenzeback

Charlie Han

Matthew Herzberg

Michael Huerta

T.R. Lakshmanan

Marcello Leonardi

William Mallett

Sharon Manwering

Dan Muko

Alan Myers

Dan Patrizio

Alan Pisarski

Ted Prince

David Reed

Arlee Reno

Matt Sheppard

David Smallen

Peggy Tadej

David Williams

Sally Winter

Deepak Virmani

Matthew J. Adams

Layout and Design

Donna Gleich

Text Processing

Tina Payne

Editorial Support

Office of the Secretary

Robert Ashby

Richard Biter

Manson Brown

Linda Darr

Thomas Falvey

Robert Goldner

Luz Hopewell

Oliver McGee

Steve Metoyer

George Moloski

A. Bradley Mims

Beverly Pheto

Jeff Shumaker

Paul Stieger

Ronald Strohman

Katherine Tiongson

Kim Waggoner

Jamie Williams

Federal Aviation Administration

Robert Bowles

Chuck Dennis

Chris Hart

Peter LeBoff

Cheryl Mixer

Charles Moles

Gary O’Toole

Janice Peters

Ned Preston

Arthur Salomon

Arnold Schwartz

Toni Trombecky

Courtney Tucker

Howard Wesoky

Federal Highway Administration

Sherri Alston

Wayne Berman

Larry Brown

King Gee

Christine Johnson

Jim March

Joe Peters

James Shrouds

Frederick Wright

Federal Motor Carrier Safety

Administration

William Hill

Chuck Rombro

Terry Shelton

Federal Railroad Administration

Jane Bachner

Steven Ditmeyer

Stan Ellis

Gregory Harshaw

John Leeds

Arrigo Mongini

Peter Montague

Neil Moyer

Joel Palley

John Sneed

Billie Stultz

John Wells

Federal Transit Administration

Richard Steinmann

Darren Timothy

Maritime Administration

Russell Byington

National Highway Traffic Safety

Administration

Larry Blincoe

William Walsh

Research and Special Programs

Administration

Bahar Barami

Bernard Blood

Edith Boyden

Aviva Brecher

Kevin Green

John Hopkins

Richard John

Thomas McNamara

John Pollard

Mark Safford

Mary Stearns

Jeff Wiese

George Whitney

U.S. Coast Guard

J A Kinghorn

James McEntire

David O’Connell

Pat Rohan

Gary Schenk

v

Table of Contents

Chapter 1—Visions Past and Future ................................................................................. 1-1

Goals of the Changing Face of Transportation ........................................................1-3

25 Years Ago .....................................................................................................1-3

As the Last Quarter Century Unfolded ...................................................................1-9

Forecasting .......................................................................................................1-10

The Transportation Context .................................................................................1-10

Passenger Travel ...............................................................................................1-12

Freight Transportation ........................................................................................1-15

Transportation Safety .........................................................................................1-17

The Environment ...............................................................................................1-21

Energy .............................................................................................................1-26

Globalization ....................................................................................................1-27

Technology .......................................................................................................1-29

National Security ..............................................................................................1-29

Policy ...............................................................................................................1-30

Overview of This Report.....................................................................................1-31

References........................................................................................................1-32

Chapter 2—Growth, Deregulation, and Intermodalism ...................................................... 2-1

Growth of the Transportation System .....................................................................2-4

Highway System .....................................................................................2-5

Transit .................................................................................................2-11

Passenger Railroads ..............................................................................2-15

Aviation ...............................................................................................2-17

Maritime Shipping ................................................................................2-31

Deregulation .....................................................................................................2-39

Motor Carriers .....................................................................................2-40

Freight Railroads...................................................................................2-42

Aviation System ....................................................................................2-45

Maritime ..............................................................................................2-48

Intermodal Freight Transportation ........................................................................2-50

National to Global Markets ....................................................................2-53

Manufacturing to Service-Based Economy ...............................................2-54

Just-In-Time Systems ..............................................................................2-55

References........................................................................................................2-59

vii
Chapter 3—Safety ..........................................................................................................3-1

Highway Safety ...................................................................................................3-6

Crash Characteristics ..............................................................................3-9

Behavioral Characteristics ......................................................................3-12

Demographic Characteristics .................................................................3-20

Vehicle Characteristics ...........................................................................3-21

Road Characteristics .............................................................................3-24

Safety Data ..........................................................................................3-25

Motor Carrier Safety .........................................................................................3-28

Transit Safety ....................................................................................................3-32

Railroad Safety .................................................................................................3-33

Aviation Safety..................................................................................................3-39

Maritime Safety .................................................................................................3-46

Pipeline Safety...................................................................................................3-53

Hazardous Materials Safety ................................................................................3-57

References........................................................................................................3-62

Chapter 4—Globalization ................................................................................................4-1

Growth of the Global Economy.............................................................................4-2

The Automobile Industry ......................................................................................4-5

International Passenger Travel by Air ...................................................................4-11

Air Cargo and Express Carriers .........................................................................4-20

Maritime Shipping .............................................................................................4-25

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) ..................................................4-31

References........................................................................................................4-37

Chapter 5—People, Energy, and the Environment ............................................................. 5-1

Mobility and Access............................................................................................. 5-2

Energy ..........................................................................................................5-18

Environment .....................................................................................................5-25

Air Quality...........................................................................................5-27

Global Climate Change .........................................................................5-33

Water Quality ......................................................................................5-37

Noise Pollution .....................................................................................5-41

Solid Waste ..........................................................................................5-45

Land-Use and Habitat Effects of Transportation .....................................................5-46

References........................................................................................................5-50

viii
Chapter 6—Technology ................................................................................................... 6-1

Global Positioning Systems ...................................................................................6-2

Intelligent Transportation Systems ..........................................................................6-6

High-Speed Ground Transportation .....................................................................6-17

Railroad System Technologies .............................................................................6-21

Aviation Technology ..........................................................................................6-24

Maritime Technology ..........................................................................................6-33

References........................................................................................................6-37

Chapter 7—National Security .......................................................................................... 7-1

Force Deployment ...............................................................................................7-2

Sealift ....................................................................................................7-2

Airlift.....................................................................................................7-5

Ground Transportation ............................................................................7-5

Vulnerability .......................................................................................................7-6

Threats to Infrastructure Security...............................................................7-7

Threats to Aviation Security ....................................................................7-15

Threats to Maritime Security ...............................................................................7-20

References........................................................................................................7-22

Appendix A: List of Figures and Tables ............................................................................ A-1

Appendix B: Acronyms and Initialisms .............................................................................. B-1

Appendix C: Glossary ................................................................................................... C-1

ix

1-1

Visions

Past and Future

chapter 1

Our vision of transportation in this new century and this new

millennium is shaped by the many successes of our past and a

renewed commitment not only to meet but to surpass new

goals, as we strive to obtain transportation excellence for all

Americans. Today, under the leadership of President William J.

Clinton and Vice President Al Gore, transportation has moved

from strength to strength, and the U.S. Department of

Transportation (USDOT) is poised to lead the transportation

enterprise as we improve safety, expand mobility, support

economic growth and trade, protect our environment, and

support America’s national security interests.

A quarter century ago, William T. Coleman, Jr., the fourth

Secretary of Transportation, opened a window into the lives of

Americans that was extraordinary. He painted a picture of our

society, of the ways in which we travel and interact, of our

economic lives, of our safety and health, of our environment,

and of our use of natural resources. And then he went even

further. He used the knowledge of the past to look into the

future, and he set about creating a planning and decisionmaking framework to guide that

future. Over the next two-and- a-half decades, the document that outlined that framework

would fade from view. But, remarkably, the future unfolded in many ways just as Secretary

Coleman envisioned in the 1977 report, National Transportation Trends and Choices [USDOT

1977].

Eight USDOT Secretaries would stand watch as the future became reality. They challenged

the Department and the transportation community to implement a new vision for transportation in the United States—to embrace higher safety goals, to champion deregulation and

investment efforts, to pursue greater private-sector participation in meeting our transportation

needs, and to adopt policies that enhanced the performance of the nation’s transportation

system. Among the Secretaries, Secretary Neil E. Goldschmidt continued efforts to deregulate

the railroad and trucking industries as the Staggers Rail Act of 1980 and the Motor Carrier Act

of 1980 became law. Secretary Samuel K. Skinner oversaw the passage of the Intermodal

Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA), a major surface transportation

program, which also led to the establishment of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS)

during Secretary Andrew H. Card’s administration in 1992. And Secretary Federico F. Peña

successfully worked with the transportation community to implement the provisions of

ISTEA.

Today, Rodney E. Slater, our thirteenth Secretary of Transportation, has changed the face of

transportation through visionary and vigilant leadership and by setting aggressive goals that

will make our transportation system progressively safer and more sustainable in the face of

“If we make wise and informed choices today and in

the years to come, we can

make our communities more

livable, give our citizens

greater choice and mobility,

protect our environment, and

help create a truly global

community. The 20th century

was indeed a golden age for

transportation; the 21st century can be an even brighter

one.”

William J. Clinton

President of the United States

May 15, 2000
1-2

change. Secretary Slater challenged us to expand our horizon by pursuing a transportation

system that is more than just a physical infrastructure of concrete, asphalt, and steel; and in

turn, he redefined transportation to be about people and their total quality of life. Through

transportation, he created opportunities for us all to lead safer and more fulfilling lives.

During his administration, several laws governing major transportation programs were

reauthorized. These include the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 1998 (OSRA), the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century of 1998 (TEA-21), the Coast Guard Authorization Act of

1998, which established the Marine Transportation System (MTS) initiative, and the Aviation

Investment and Reform Act for the 21st Century (AIR-21). Also, during Secretary Slater’s

tenure, 38 new “open skies” agreements were signed with countries around the world,

bringing today’s total number of these liberalized aviation agreements to 52.

The Changing Face of Transportation, together with its companion document, Transportation

Decision Making: Policy Architecture for the 21st Century, links past and present and then points

us toward future successes. Both documents reflect the Department’s determination to fulfill

its Strategic Plan, its resolve to remain visionary and vigilant, and its intent to lead the way to

transportation excellence in the 21st Century.

Under the collaborative and open leadership of Secretary Slater, today’s transportation

enterprise is leading America’s great transition into the global economy. Today’s

decisionmakers persist in ensuring that our transportation system remains international in

reach—linking us to new markets and destinations around the world; intermodal in form—

gaining from the combined strengths of the individual modes; intelligent in character—

harnessing the tremendous power of technological advancement to expand our capabilities;

and inclusive in service—moving always forward and leaving no one behind. Our transportation system must also be innovative in scope—deriving every benefit from technology that

enhances safety and makes our communities more livable.

Under the leadership of the Clinton-Gore Administration, we have made safety our top

transportation priority. But today’s USDOT is positioned to do much more; we must make the

system even safer, we must improve mobility and accessibility, and we must protect our

environment, while supporting our national security goals.

1. Present a blueprint to build a transportation system that goes far beyond the

goal of safely and efficiently moving

people and goods to one that improves

our total quality of life.

2. Provide a vision to inform future

decisionmakers and policymakers for

the 21st Century—a vision that puts

people first and strives to leave no one

behind.

3. Show that aggressive “stretch” goals

can be achieved through collaborative

leadership that brings partners

together to produce maximum results.

4. Estimate and illustrate the potential

results of current policies.

5. Show the potential improvements from

achieving the Department’s Strategic

Goals.

6. Illustrate record-level infrastructure

investment that significantly improves

the condition and performance of our

nation’s transportation system.

7. Forecast and show the impacts of

policies on public safety, energy use,

environmental enhancements, and

technological advances.

8. Show the emerging trends in

transportation demand and their

potential impacts.

9. Encourage an informed decisionmaking process that draws on the

best from all stakeholders at federal,

state, and local levels, and from the

private sector.

10. Facilitate a transportation system

that is truly the “tie that binds” us

together as a nation and connects us

to the rest of the world.

Purposes of The Changing Face of Transportation and Transportation

Decision Making: Policy Architecture for the 21st Century, 2000 :

Box 1-1
1-3

Goals of The Changing Face of Transportation

The Changing Face of Transportation provides a historical perspective for policymaking. It

reviews the major policy milestones of the past quarter century and the social and economic

context for those milestones. Secretary Slater provides a logical foundation for making future

policy choices and challenges the transportation enterprise to aspire toward higher marks of

excellence, moving beyond what we think is possible and also thinking globally. Some future

policy choices are apparent already and, as with the choices envisioned by former Secretarys

of Transportation, undoubtedly many more will emerge as the future unfolds.

Today, we can look forward with confidence knowing that our transportation system reflects

the remarkable achievements of the Clinton-Gore Administration in striving to meet our

nation’s transportation needs. Under their leadership, virtually every law governing major

transportation programs has been renewed, including the Trucking Industry Deregulation Act

of 1994, the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 1998, the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st

Century of 1998 (TEA-21), and the Aviation Investment and Reform Act for the 21st Century

(AIR-21). These Acts provided record-level infrastructure investments, increased funding

flexibility, expanded the proven strategies of public participation in the planning process, and

affirmed this Administration’s top transportation priority of improving safety and creating

opportunities for all Americans. The ramification of this extraordinary era will positively

shape transportation in the coming decades.

25 Years Ago . . .

Trends and Choices was developed at a critical time in our nation’s transportation history. The

United States had just experienced a major energy shock in 1973 and would soon experience

another in 1979 due to oil embargoes by OPEC—the Organization of Petroleum Exporting

Countries. Kindled by recent memories of long gas lines, a major concern about petroleum

fuel was availability—perhaps even more so than price. But in the aftermath of the 1973

shock, the public had returned quickly to its old driving habits, almost as though nothing had

happened.

The Purposes of Trends and Choices, 1977:

1. Estimate and illustrate the potential consequences of policies.

2. Show that long-range consequences are

considered in both substantive and resource

allocation decisions.

3. Encourage a view of transportation as a

means to broader national goals.

4. Promote a more informed public debate on

transportation decisions.

5. Forecast and illustrate the impacts of policies on energy conservation, environmental

enhancement, assistance to the transportation

disadvantaged, and public safety.

6. Indicate the directions in which current and

future transportation policies are taking us.

7. Initiate a planning process based on

common time horizons and planning

assumptions.

8. Encourage transportation performance

measurement.

9. Facilitate federal decisionmaking with

information on desired or probable

directions.

10. Encourage careful evaluation of proposed

regulatory actions.

Box 1-2
1-4

A Chronology of Vision and Vigilance

Under the Leadership of Secretary Rodney E. Slater

“As we look to the future, I am confident that we are truly in on the ground floor of a new age of

prosperity for everyone. And the role of transportation in this age is to create the links that make it

happen. Transportation is truly the tie that binds.”

October 2000

National Drunk Driving Standard – Confirming his consistent commitment of safety as the Clinton-Gore

Administration’s top transportation priority, President Clinton signed into law the “Department of

Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2000.” This Act provides critical

transportation safety funding and contains a provision that will help set a national impaired driving

standard at 0.08 Blood Alcohol Concentration, thereby reducing drunk driving on the nation’s roads

and saving lives.

USDOT Performance Report Rated the Best in Government by the U.S. Senate – The Senate

Governmental Affairs Committee rated the USDOT’s 1999 Annual Performance Report one of the best

in government. The USDOT’s Report was one of two agencies to be rated “A”, out of 24 federal

agencies. The Performance Report informs Congress and the public what USDOT is doing and how well

we are doing in terms of our strategic goals under the Government Performance and Results Act

(GPRA). In 1997, the USDOT’s Strategic Plan and Performance Goals were also rated the best in the

entire government. The USDOT plans to continue achieving improved results in safety, mobility,

economic growth, human and natural environment, and organization excellence.

International Transportation Symposium – USDOT hosted the first International Transportation

Symposium for world transportation ministers, industry leaders, academia, and the public to develop a

bolder vision for a truly global transportation system and create the environment conducive to

addressing the emerging challenges of the 21st century.

Open Skies – During the last eight years, the United States signed 51 Open Skies agreements with

countries around the world. Under Secretary Slater’s leadership, the United States signed 37 of these

agreements, opening more markets and creating more opportunities for international air service than

ever before.

July 2000

10th Anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA) – In celebrating the 10th

anniversary of the ADA, USDOT emphasized its commitment to envisioning accessibility as a civil right.

July 2000

First to Achieve EEO Goal – The USDOT became the first federal agency to achieve an important goal in

equal employment opportunity complaint handling. DOT has eliminated its complaint backlog and has

an aggressive compliance goal of zero backlog.

April 2000

AIR-21 – The 2000 Wendell H. Ford Aviation Investment and Reform Act for the 21st Century (AIR-21)

substantially increased funding for aviation safety, modernization and stability of critical air traffic

services, and airport development.

March 2000

New Generation of Vehicles – The Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) program

celebrated a milestone. The PNGV partnership, started under Vice President Gore in 1993, brings

together the federal government and the U.S. auto industry. It achieved a major goal when the three big

U.S. automakers started marketing hybrid-electric vehicles with very low emissions and fuel efficiency of

up to 80 miles per gallon. Another Vice-President Gore initiative, “A Research Initiative for 21st Century

Trucks,” will build on the PNGV success by cutting fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions of delivery

vehicles while improving the safety and efficiency of the nation’s trucking industry.

February 2000

Moving Passenger and High-speed Rail into the Future – The Clinton-Gore Administration consistently

supported a national passenger rail system to help meet our nation’s growing transportation needs in the

21st Century. Critical funding was provided to help Amtrak achieve self-sufficiency, improve and

increase the speed of rail service, and lay the foundation for high-speed rail corridors. Passenger rail

Rodney E. Slater

Secretary, Department of Transportation
1-5

service, including high-speed rail, will play a key role in meeting the nation’s transportation needs and

providing solutions to the effects of economic growth and urban sprawl.

January 2000

Motor Carrier Safety – The Department’s newest agency, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety

Administration was formed following passage of the Motor Carrier Safety Improvement Act and USDOT

set a stretch goal to reduce the number of truck-related fatalities by 50 percent over 10 years.

December 1999

Aviation in the 21st Century Beyond Open Skies Ministerial – USDOT hosted an Open Skies

Ministerial, attended by leaders from more than 90 countries, to expand and strengthen international

aviation partnerships far beyond bilateral agreements. This ministerial promoted transportation policies

that foster the Clinton-Gore Administration’s goals for prosperity, stability, and democracy and was a

follow-up to the historic meeting held in Chicago 55 years earlier.

September 1999

Africa-US Transportation Ministerial – USDOT hosted the first Africa-U.S. Transportation Ministerial for

African transportation leaders to develop a vision of collaboration and partnership in transportation,

safety, trade, and development.

Marine Transportation System Assessment – Secretary Slater submitted to Congress the first comprehensive assessment of the U.S. Marine Transportation System. This assessment was prepared by a congressionally mandated public- and private-sector task force under the leadership of the U.S. Coast Guard

and the Maritime Administration.

July 1999

Order on Accessibility – A new USDOT Order on Accessibility was signed, stating that accessibility is a

civil right. This Order and other activities put USDOT in the forefront of federal activities to lower

barriers and obstacles to people with disabilities in their use of transportation infrastructure.

June 1999

Innovation in Transportation – Looking toward the future impacts of technological innovation in

transportation, USDOT hosted the “Spirit of Innovation in Transportation” conference to foster a climate

of ongoing innovation. Secretary Slater challenged the transportation community to work toward a

transportation system that is innovative in scope, international in reach, intermodal in form, intelligent in

character, and inclusive in service.

May 1999

Transportation and Community Livability – USDOT made the first awards under the new TEA-21

Transportation and Community and System Preservation program, established to enhance our

understanding of links between land use and transportation. Under Secretary Rodney Slater’s

leadership, the USDOT has ensured that transportation programs support the Clinton-Gore

Administration’s community livability efforts. Such efforts include development of information on USDOT

programs supporting livability, initiation of ONEDOT partnership efforts, and implementation of the

Delta, New Markets, and Rural initiatives. The USDOT has used tools and resources to preserve green

space, ease traffic congestion, restore a sense of community, pursue regional smart growth strategies,

and enhance economic competitiveness.

March 1999

Transportation and Community Development – The USDOT showed strong commitment to new markets

and emerging corridors and initiated major programs to use transportation in promoting economic

development in the Appalachian region, the Delta region, and in Rural America. Although we have

made progress in improving transportation in these underserved regions of America, more needs to be

done so that no region in the country is left behind. Transportation could bring greater economic

opportunity and improved quality of life to communities in these regions.

National Transportation Safety Conference – In partnership with the safety leadership of the

transportation community, the USDOT hosted the first ever national safety conference involving all modes

of transportation that had two significant outcomes on partnership and promise. The partners developed

an aggressive safety action plan and committed to make safety their top priority to the American people.

Safety is the USDOT’s North Star by which we are guided and willing to be judged. The safety

partnership was challenged to embrace safety as a promise we make and keep together. Progress has

been made since this conference, including efforts to improve data for strategic and operational

transportation decision, development and use of advanced safety technologies, and promotion and

funding of enforcement of transportation-related laws and regulations.

continued next page
1-6

January 1999

New Rule Revising USDOT’s Disadvantaged Business Enterprise (DBE) program – USDOT announced a

significant new rule revising the Department’s Disadvantaged Business Enterprise (DBE) program, a

major component of the Administration’s commitment to minority businesses. The new rule assures that

help is extended to those businesses that need it the most. USDOT has one of the largest DBE programs

in the federal government, thus ensuring minority and disadvantaged access to federal contracts.

December 1998

Western Hemisphere Transportation Partnerships – Secretary Slater continued the Clinton-Gore

Administration’s goal to promote free trade, economic development, and democracy throughout the

Americas. Secretary Slater hosted a Transportation Ministerial for the 34 nations of the Western

Hemisphere at which a two-year action plan was adopted to improve transportation safety and security,

to continue the integration of transportation policies and programs across national and modal lines, and

to enhance disaster prevention and relief.

November 1998

Marine Transportation System National Conference – Under Secretary Rodney Slater’s leadership, the

USDOT collaborated with other federal agencies and numerous private-sector stakeholders to develop a

bold and comprehensive plan to modernize our nation’s Marine Transportation System (MTS), as

required in The Coast Guard Authorization Act of 1998. The MTS vision is to be the world’s most

technologically advanced, safe, secure, efficient, effective, globally competitive, and environmentally

responsible system for moving people and goods by 2020.

OneDOT – Secretary Rodney Slater challenged the Department to reinvent our workplace culture to better

serve the American people through teams that produce higher performance goals by working better

together across all modes.

June 1998

TEA-21 – The 1998 Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) guaranteed a record $200

billion in surface transportation investment for highway safety, highways, transit, and other surface

transportation programs for six years.

Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act – Authorized under TEA-21, The

Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act of 1998 (TIFIA) provided direct loans, loan

guarantees, and lines of credit to private and public sponsors of major surface transportation projects,

epitomizing the importance of public-private partnerships under the Clinton-Gore Administration.

National Transportation Library – Embracing advances in information and communication technology,

TEA-21 established the National Transportation Library within the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

The library, an electronic repository of materials from public and private organizations around the

country, facilitates the exchange of transportation-related information. This Library will allow USDOT to

meet emerging information challenges of the future.

November 1997

First Electronic Docket on the Internet – Secretary Rodney Slater broke new ground by unveiling the first

electronic docket on the Internet to involve Americans in the governmental decision-making process. This

improves access to government information, improves service to the American people, and makes

government more efficient.

October 1997

Africa Transportation Initiative – Secretary Rodney Slater led the Clinton-Gore Administration’s

Partnership for Growth and Opportunity in Africa. USDOT promoted sustainable improvements in

aviation safety and airport security, trade and market development, technical assistance and technology

transfer, and human capacity building throughout Africa.

June 1997

USDOT Strategic Plan Rated Best in Government by the U.S. Senate – Under the leadership of

Secretary Rodney Slater, USDOT’s Strategic Plan 1997-2002 was rated the best in government by the

Senate Governmental Affairs and Appropriations committees under the GPRA. The Strategic Plan sets

aggressive performance goals in safety, mobility, economic growth, human and natural environment,

national security, and organizational excellence; and it identifies measures to gauge progress. The

Department increased its investment in America’s infrastructure while reducing staffing.
1-7

May 1997

Garrett A. Morgan – Under Secretary Slater’s visionary leadership, the USDOT started the Garrett A.

Morgan Technology and Transportation Futures Program to enhance transportation education at all

levels by leveraging the Department’s current technology, education, and research program through

public/private partnerships. Garrett A. Morgan (1877-1963) was an African-American inventor

whose lifetime of contributions includes the invention of the traffic signal.

April 1997

30th Anniversary of U.S. Department of Transportation – The USDOT, celebrating its 30th anniversary,

is positioned to remain more vigilant and visionary, committed to making the American transportation

system safer.

 January 1996

Intelligent Transportation Systems – Under Secretary Federico F. Peña, the USDOT challenged the

transportation community to embrace advances in ITS technology to save time and lives and improve

quality of life.

November 1995

National Highway System Designation – President Clinton signed the National Highway System

Designation Act passed by the Congress, formally establishing the National Highway System (NHS). The

NHS has focused federal resources on the most heavily used highways and on those that link other key

elements of the transportation system, such as ports, international border crossing points, major airports,

and public transit facilities.

April 1995

Transportation and Environment Policy Statement – Under the leadership of Secretary Rodney Slater,

the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) expanded the definition of environment far beyond

“natural” and “scenic” to include the built environment, the cultural and social fabric of our country, our

neighborhoods, and the total quality of life of all Americans. This was part of his overall vision to

redefine transportation beyond public works of concrete, asphalt, and steel to one about creating

opportunities for all Americans.

August 1994

Hazardous Materials Transportation Authorization Act of 1994 – This Act became law under Secretary

Federico F. Peña and made the American transportation system safer by improving federal hazardous

materials transportation provisions.

October 1993

The Federal Highway Administration – FHWA celebrated 100 years of service to the country. Record

levels of infrastructure investments provided under the Clinton-Gore Administration have positioned the

FHWA to continue to make our nation’s highways safer.

August 1993

Livable Communities and Transportation – The USDOT announced the first Livable Communities grant to

the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. The USDOT has continued to support communities by

encouraging transit-oriented commercial and residential development and supporting improved access to

transit service.

August 1993

Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA) – President Bill Clinton signed the GPRA to

require government agencies to develop three important performance measurement systems: strategic

plans, performance plans, and performance reports. The USDOT aggressively responded with our

organizational excellence goal, which advances the Department’s ability to manage for results and

innovation.

July 1993

The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Key Station Compliance – This Act took effect and required

all transit stations, unless granted extension by the USDOT, to be readily accessible to and usable by

individuals with disabilities.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, December 2000.
1-8

Forecasts Past and Future

Table 1-1

215

$1,598

$7,417

NA

2,560

11,881

130

138

2,285,000

754,252

565,984

1,695

454,000

3,470

507,000

49,214

16,998

Transportation Context

Population (millions)1

GNP (constant 1975 $, billions)2

GNP Per Capita (1975 $)2

GDP (constant 2000 $, billions)3

Passenger Transportation

Passenger-Miles (billions)4

Passenger-Miles Per Capita4

Licensed Drivers (millions)5

Vehicles (millions)6

Freight Transportation7

Total Ton-Miles (millions)

Rail*

Water (domestic ton-miles)

Water (domestic and foreign tons)

Truck (intercity)

Air

Pipeline

Safety8

Transportation fatalities

Air Pollution9

CO (millions of tons)

NOx (millions of tons)

Greenhouse gas emissions10

Energy11

Btu12 (trillions)

1975

Actual

247

$2,830

$11,457

NA

3,850

15,600

161

170

4,394,706

1,845,777

1,010,782

NA

703,153

8,789

834,994

45,500

NA

16,700

1990

Coleman

forecast

249

$2,409

$9,675

NA

3,946

15,847

167

193

3,196,000

1,033,969

833,544

2,164

735,000

9,064

584,000

47,248

24,070

1990

Actual

275

$3,049

$11,087

$9,942

5,036

18,313

190

219

3,959,432

1,416,446

763,540

2,453

1,130,132

15,904

633,410

42,600

25,200

2000

Estimated

338

$5,486

$16,240

$18,258

8,438

24,979

243

262

5,098,888

1,484,802

NA

3,429

2,121,837

33,925

797,950

40,300

36,600

2025

Forecast13

85.27

9.45

350.00

27.00

8.82

61.18

8.51

420.00

50.48

8.66

500.00

24.24

7.98

600.00

* The FRA forecasts a two percent average annual growth rate for the 2000-2025 period. This translates into 2.4 trillion

 ton-miles in 2025.

1

Population projections are taken from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Annual Projections of the Total

 Resident Population as of July 1: Middle Series Projections for 2000 and 2025.

NA = not available.

The Clean Air Act of 1970 had introduced vehicle emission standards and local plans for

meeting national ambient air quality standards to be administered by a new agency—the

Environmental Protection Agency. The Federal Task Force on Motor Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980

issued a report in 1976 recommending fuel consumption standards for a new vehicle fleet while

dealing with often conflicting requirements to preserve personal mobility, reduce emissions, and

enhance safety. Many public research efforts were launched after 1973, focusing on alternative

fuel technologies. It was for these reasons, among others, that a national document like Trends

and Choices would have a special section devoted to the automobile.

Issues of expanding safety regulation and economic deregulation of common carriers for both

passengers and freight were at the forefront of policymaking. American railroads were in

serious difficulty with rates of return that, at best, did not permit adequate investment. Amtrak

had been created in 1970 as part of a divestiture process. Conrail had just been created from a

family of bankrupt Eastern and Midwestern railroads. Congress was also considering

legislation to reduce the economic regulatory burdens imposed on carriers by the Interstate

Commerce Commission (ICC), which oversaw rail, truck, and intercity bus activities; and the

Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB), which oversaw air passenger and freight activities. The U.S.

maritime industry was in a long decline from its once-dominant position in the world.

Thus, at the time Trends and Choices was issued in 1977, every sector of the transportation system

faced significant challenges; however, unlike today, system capacity was not a major issue.
1-9

2

Forecasts for GNP are based on 1975 through 1999 data, using log linear (Holt) exponential smoothing

model, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.

3

Forecasts for GDP are based on 1929 through 1999 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing,

parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.

4

Forecasts are based on 1990 through 1997 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters

optimized through SAS/ETS software.

5

Forecasts are based on 1949 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters

optimized through SAS/ETS software.

6

Forecasts for vehicles are based on 1990 through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing,

parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.

7

Forecasts for total ton-miles are an aggregate of the individual forecasts by mode. Forecasts for rail ton-miles

are based on 1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters optimized

through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for water ton-miles are based on two forecast models: log damped

trend exponential smoothing based on 1990 through 1997 data, and log simple exponential smoothing based

on 1960 through 1995 data in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with equal weights.

Forecasts for truck ton-miles are based on two forecast models: linear trend based on 1990 through 1997 data,

and double (Brown) exponential smoothing based on 1960 through 1995 data in five year increments; the two

forecasts are combined with equal weights. Forecasts for air ton-miles are based on two forecast models:

linear trend based on 1990 through 1998 data, and damped trend exponential smoothing based on 1960

through 1995 data in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with equal weights. Forecasts for

pipeline ton-miles are based on 1990 through 1997 data using log linear trend. All forecast model parameters

optimized through SAS/ETS software.

8

Forecasts are based on 1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters

optimized through SAS/ETS software.

9

Forecasts for CO are based on 1985 through 1997 data, using log linear trend parameters optimized through

SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for NOx are based on 1985 through 1997 data, using double (Brown)

exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for greenhouse gas

emissions are based on expert opinion.

10Millions of metric tons of carbon equivalent, excluding bunker fuels.

11Forecasts based on 1990 through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing, parameters

optimized through SAS/ETS software.

12Btu: British thermal unit.

13The 2025 forecasts are purely statistical. For sources of data used in these forecasts see page 1-32.

As the Last Quarter Century Unfolded . . .

Perhaps the centerpiece of transportation policy over the last 25 years has been the economic

deregulation of aviation, trucking, intercity buses, railroads, and, recently, the ocean shipping

industry. These actions produced profound impacts not only on the structure of these

industries, but also—because of enhanced competition—on their performance rates, fares, and

quality of service.

Airlines and railroads continue to experience major consolidations through mergers,

alliances, and buyouts. Lowered entry barriers have allowed new small air carriers,

thousands of small trucking companies, and regional intercity bus companies to offer

services, and have brought about the resurgence of regional and short-line railroads. At the

same time, enhanced competition within each industry has lowered fares and freight rates.

Growth brought about by deregulation has provided unprecedented levels of mobility and

contributed to the enormous economic prosperity of the last decade. Since 1975, passengermiles of travel have nearly doubled, just as economic production has nearly doubled over the

same period. Yet the number of transportation fatalities continues to decline, and most

measures of air pollution/emissions have declined as well. Energy use has risen; but with

gains in energy efficiency, cars now get close to 33 percent more miles per gallon than they did

25 years ago.
1-10

“In 1970, U.S. per capita

income was 31 percent

higher than that of other

major industrialized

countries. By 1991, that

difference had narrowed to

only 10 percent. But with

the dawn of the Internet

Age, the gap has started to

widen again—to more than

22 percent this year.”

Michael S. Mandel

Business Week

Oct. 4, 1999

Technology has played a critical role in enabling change. During

the past quarter century, the aviation system has moved to

satellite-based communications, navigation, and surveillance

systems. Global Positioning System (GPS) technology has

provided major advances in positioning accuracy for maritime

shipping, railroads, and highway vehicles as well. Cars are no

longer controlled by purely mechanical devices, as they were in

1975. Instead, microchips control many mechanical components.

How much of this could have been anticipated?

Forecasting

Even in the most tranquil of times, projecting trends into the future

is an undertaking filled with challenges and pitfalls. Still, the

forecasts made in Trends and Choices were fairly accurate. And

history is instructive. The past suggests that most of the

technologies likely to be deployed widely over the next generation

are ones that either exist today or are under development. It is imperitive that we invest in

research and development today to support future generations. Even while we might safely

forecast that the pace of change will quicken, history cautions us to avoid assuming that

futuristic visions will quickly become reality (table 1-1). The past suggests that public

acceptance of new technologies or policies can play a major role in whether they are deployed

or implemented. The past also has shown that many changes will be associated with wild

cards—developments like wars, recessions, or other phenomena that we know might occur but

which we cannot forecast with any confidence. Perhaps most importantly, through Trends and

Choices, Secretary Coleman demonstrated that well-informed policy decisions can have

important effects on the ultimate outcomes for transportation.

The Transportation

Context

During the Clinton-Gore Administration,

a steady growth in population and

strong economic growth increased

demand for transportation services. By

1998, under the leadership of

Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater,

Congress provided nearly $200 billion

over six years in surface transportation

investment, an increase of nearly $50

billion over previous funding (see

box 2-1 in chapter 2).

In 1975, the U.S. population was

growing steadily, with most of the

increase due to migration, and the

economy was picking up after a

recession. The U.S. population stood at

215.9 million, the Gross National

Product (GNP) was $1,598.4 billion,

and GNP per-capita—a commonly

used indicator of economic wellbeing—was $7,400 per person.

1975 1980

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

0

Constant dollars 1975, billions

1985 1990 2000 2010 2020 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected

U.S. Gross National Product (GNP): 1975-2025

1975 1985 1980

Millions

1990 2000 2010 2020 1995 2005 2015 2025

100

50

0

150

200

250

300

350

400

Projected

U.S. Population: 1975-2025
1-11

At the time of Trends and Choices, the U.S. population was projected to grow by about 0.5

percent compounded annually over the next 15 years to 247 million. Real GNP was projected

to grow at a faster rate — by about 2.3 percent per year — to $2.83 trillion, or about $11,460 per

person (in constant 1975 dollars).

By 1990, without any major social upheavals over that period, the population actually grew to

a level almost exactly as forecast—to 249 million. But the nation’s economy had been buffeted

by another major oil shock in 1979 and had stagnated through the 1970s and 1980s. With

high levels of inflation accompanying slow growth, economists came to call this unusual

phenomenon “stagflation.” GNP fell short of the projections by 15 percent—$2.41 trillion vs.

$2.83 trillion projected in Trends and Choices. Real GNP per-capita fell short of the $10,000

forecast by Coleman for 1990.

Under the leadership of President Clinton and Vice President Gore, we have witnessed a

continuing rise in population, still largely through immigration, and the longest expansion of

the economy in our nation’s history. Making up for the pause in growth during the 1980s, the

economy has grown to an estimated $9.9 trillion in 2000, and per-capita Gross Domestic

Product (GDP)1 stood at about $36,153 thousand in 1998 or about $11,100 in 1975 dollars.

Over the next 25 years, the U.S. population is likely to continue growing at an average annual

rate of change of about 0.82 percent, reaching a level of 337 million by 2025. But the age

distribution of the population will continue to change significantly. The median age has risen

from 28.8 in 1975 to 35.2 in 1999, and it is expected to reach 38.0 by 2025 [USDOC Census

1999]. These changing demographics will challenge transportation decisionmakers both

directly and indirectly through the makeup of the workforce, consumer preferences for

products and services, and the numbers of youthful and aging drivers, among other things.

Economic projections tend to be more near-term. But the Congressional Budget Office’s

estimates suggest growth in production at a substantially faster rate than population

growth—about 2.7 percent compounded annually over the next 10 years [CBO 2000].

Projected forward, we might expect GDP to reach $29 trillion by 2025. In that event, per-capita

GDP might well be close to 1.5 times today’s level in real terms.

One facet of the trends in this period was the growth in workers that resulted from the baby

boomers coming of working age from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s and the growth in

women joining the labor force. In the 1980s, more people were added to the labor force than to

total population. Women’s increasing involvement in the workforce shifted the historical

pattern in which one-third of working-age women worked to one in which one-third of

women of that age group did not work. By 1975, female labor force participation had risen to

47.3 percent; by 1998, it stood at 59.4 percent. It is to the great credit of the U.S. economy that

the surge of workers found jobs in a thriving economy. Today, the ever-increasing demand for

workers directly supports President Clinton’s welfare

reform plan, and an increasing number of welfare

recipients are transitioning to the job market.

Population and economic production have always

been important factors in shaping the nation’s travel

patterns. As population grows, travel generally rises proportionately. But changes in the age

distribution, geographic distribution, and even immigration can affect travel volume and

patterns as well. Economic well-being can brake or accelerate the use of the transportation

system, while changing the mix of transportation modes or trip purpose. Also,

internationally, population growth and globalization of the economy will amplify both trade

and passenger flows. Thus, demographics and economics provide an important part of the

context for transportation decisionmaking by individuals, government, and in private

industry.

Transit ridership grew from 7.4 billion

passenger trips in 1993 to 9 billion in

1999 – the highest level since 1964.

1

 Since 1992 the United States changed from GNP to GDP as the aggregate measure of the size of the economy

to better reflect the domestic production capacity of the country. In 1992, U.S. GNP was $24,490 per capita in

current 1992 dollars, while GNP was $24,447 per capita in current 1992 dollars.
1-12

Today, highway vehicle-miles traveled exceed 2.6 trillion per year and continue to grow.

Transit ridership reached 9 billion in 1999, the highest in 40 years. Commercial airports

handled more than 8.5 million flights, nearly double the number of flights handled in the mid1970s. By 1999, U.S. domestic revenue passenger-miles had climbed to 473 billion and will

continue to increase.

Increased demand for transportation brings increased safety, security, energy, environmental,

and congestion concerns. The challenge will be to address these concerns while developing

innovative solutions to ensure the free flow of goods and people within and among all of the

various modes of transportation, to allow people to be even more productive with their time, to

experience new things, and to always be connected.

Passenger Travel

In 1975, Americans used the automobile for more than 90 percent of their travel (by mileage),

and travel by automobile was continuing to rise faster than the population was growing

[USDOT 1977]. Therefore, it was natural that Trends and Choices would forecast what we

would see by 1990:

50.4 percent rise in passenger-miles,

23.4 percent rise in licensed drivers, and

23.2 percent rise in the number of vehicles on the highways.

What is a little surprising is the

accuracy of these forecasts even

while the economy fell short of

forecasts by 14.9 percent.

Passenger-miles per capita, in

particular, were almost exactly

as projected. The number of

licensed drivers grew to a level

slightly (3.7 percent) more than

projected. But the number of

vehicles increased to an

astonishing 193 million—

23 million more than expected

only 15 years before. The

number of light trucks and

sport utility vehicles (SUVs)

alone grew by more than 23 million.

Evidently, the American fascination with automobiles was tied much more loosely to the

economy than originally thought. And vehicles were starting to last longer, so even moderate

levels of new car purchases inflated the national inventory. The increase in telecommuting,

e-commerce, and other advances that can be a substitute for transportation will likely slow the

growth in transportation demand. However, continued growth in the demand for

transportation may result in more attempts to control demand through pricing, regulation,

and other mechanisms.

Over the past 10 years, passenger travel rose even more steeply than during earlier decades as

the economy grew rapidly. Highway travel (as measured in passenger-miles) has continued

to dominate—still accounting for 90 percent of travel—while air travel accounts for another

9 percent, and the other modes together account for the last one percent. Until the past decade

Passenger-Miles: 1975-2025

1975

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1985

Billions of miles

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected
1-13

or so, about every five years highway travel lost a percent of the modal share, while air travel

gained a percent. Reasons for this shift include lower costs, faster travel, and an increased

willingness to travel longer distances and visit more places.

The next 25 years present some

real uncertainties. While

vehicle miles of travel (VMT)

certainly have risen over the

last 25 years, today congestion

presents a real challenge. Our

strong economy has increased

demand and created capacity

challenges. Record-level

investments have made

funding available, but we

cannot build ourselves out of

this situation. We cannot build

enough lanes or roads in most

places where capacity is

needed.

The current market share of

transit—and its capacity in some

geographic areas—is limited,

and currently forms only a small

part of the solution. Although

transit ridership has been

growing at a rate faster than

automobiles in some urban areas,

its full potential to ease

congestion is yet to be realized.

The market share of transit—and

its capacity in some areas—

must be expanded. The other

main mode of passenger

travel—aviation—is also beset

by capacity problems, with

significant public concern

about flight delays and

cancellations, even now. Three

current options offer hope.

First, Intelligent Transportation

Systems (ITS) technology offers

one option, as metropolitan

areas across the country are

actively deploying some of

these technologies to improve

the capacity of the highway

system. Second, modernization

of the nation’s air traffic control system offers another part to the overall solution for

transportation. Third, continued investment in airport capacity that will allow increasing

aviation activity that is compatible with environmental standards.

For some time now, we have had the tools necessary to advance telecommuting. But, there

may be some aspects of the way we work that are preventing greater market penetration.

Recall that no less a visionary than Thomas Alva Edison predicted the demise of the

1975

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985

Millions of vehicles

1990 2000 2010 2020 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected

Vehicles: 1975-2025

1975

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected

Licensed Drivers: 1975-2025

Millions of drivers

1975

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected

Passenger-Miles Per Capita: 1975-2025

Miles per capita
1-14

conventional classroom with the advent of films and radio. As work is becoming more

information- and innovation-oriented, team development is becoming more important.

Systems are becoming more complex. As one is less and less able to master entire systems,

trust is perhaps becoming more critical, and face-to-face contacts are needed to develop that

trust. In fact, it seems that workplaces are beginning to pay more attention to “professional

emotional” relationships. These take time and close interaction. We can support efforts to

continue to increase telecommuting.

By 2025, travelers will have widespread, real-time access— any time, any place—to

information of all types, such as transportation availability, geographic location, and

operating conditions over various segments of a trip. Passenger-miles of travel will increase

faster than the growth in travel experienced during the 1990s—from 5 trillion miles in 2000 to

8.4 trillion in 2025, provided that capacity issues can be adequately addressed. A

corresponding rise in global travel will also occur.

Forces of Change Affecting Commuting, Land Use, and Other Travel

(in this decade and beyond)

The Democratization of Mobility—Everyone can travel—the number of vehicles in the nation

exceeds the number of drivers. Currently, the saturation in drivers licenses and vehicles is really

the saturation of the white population alone. As affluence increases, more African-American,

Hispanic, and Asian households will acquire both licenses and vehicles. This equalizing of mobility

will be critical to both the ability to fully exploit job opportunities and to expand the ability to enjoy

social and recreational opportunities.

Aging of the Population—As future numbers of older and retired people increase, travel patterns

and levels will change as well. Travel in nonpeak hours may increase at a greater rate, relative to

commuting travel, as the retired have more time for leisure activities.

Changing Immigration—With immigration returning to turn of the 20th century levels, immigrants

will become a critical factor in future commuting patterns. In 1998, close to 60 percent of arrivals

from abroad went directly to metropolitan suburbs, rather than the cities. While new immigrants

may initially stimulate transit use over time, they may make other travel choices.

Growing Affluence— Rising incomes increase auto availability and use, trips per household, and

average trip lengths. As the means to travel increase, people consume more transportation. With

70 percent of the nation’s workers living in two-or-more-worker households, commuting trips

become longer, more auto-centered, and more likely to be in a peak period. Household income

levels of $25,000 appear to be the threshold for shifts to private vehicles for transportation.

Dispersal Technologies— Transportation services, both ground and air, have been a key factor in

dispersing the population by making formerly remote areas highly connected to the rest of the

country. Airport congestion will push development to areas with excess capacity. Airports will be

the economic engines of the 21st century, not unlike the seaports and railroad stations at the turn

of the 20th century. The Internet, computers, and future technologies will further loosen constraints

on dispersal, expanding the freedom to work anywhere.

Source: Alan Pisarski, excerpts from speech to the “Road Gang,” Channel Inn, Washington, DC, June 15, 2000.

There will be greater concerns for the safe mobility of older adults, who will make up onesixth of the population. New technologies will be employed to keep them driving safely

longer, as they continue to use the automobile as their main source of transportation. And

more user-friendly, reliable forms of nondriving transportation will be perfected, providing

older adults with additional options.

Box 1-3
1-15

While traveling in the future will be different, the basic modes we use are unlikely to change.

What will change are the characteristics of these systems, how we use them, and how we

construct our daily routines, all of which will help enhance the quality of the transportation

experience. Certainly, technology, automation, and the prospect for increased affluence will

play major roles. And capacity is going to have to be addressed head-on, even if just to avoid

constraining the U.S. economy.

With the unveiling of “Acela,” Amtrak’s new high-speed train service (with speeds

reaching150 mph) in the Northeast Corridor, the interest in high-speed, rail-based ground

transportation continues to grow. It is expected that by 2025 most of the corridors in the

nation will have a high-speed train service. The advent of MagLev (magnetic levitation) over

the next 25 years will present intercity travel times that will rival those of air travel.

Increased use of ferryboat systems is being looked at as a measure to address congestion in

major metropolitan areas like San Francisco, New York City, and Seattle. The U.S. Marine

Transportation System (MTS) report, submitted by the USDOT to Congress in 1999, estimates

very rapid growth of the high-speed passenger ferry industry. Ferries traveling up to 80 knots

or more will be used to compete with other forms of transportation. The growth in the ferry

industry is expected to continue over the next 25 years and will require improvements to the

port infrastructure and a continuing focus on prevention programs to minimize risk to

passengers.

Freight Transportation

In 1975, the U.S. economy was more product- and less service-oriented than it is today. The

domestic transportation system handled about 2,285 billion ton-miles of freight—or a little

over 1.4 ton-miles per dollar of GNP. Freight tonnage was split among rail (33 percent), water

(25 percent), pipeline (22 percent), and truck (20 percent) by modal share; air transportation

accounted for much less than 1 percent of ton-mileage. Over-regulation and energy costs were

among the more visible issues. But the demand for freight transportation was growing

rapidly.

Trends and Choices forecast 92 percent growth in ton-miles by 1990—even more than the 77

percent projected growth in real GNP. In fact, while GNP fell somewhat short of the forecast,

freight traffic fell short even more. By 1990, real GNP was up about 50 percent while total tonmiles were up only 40 percent. Two important things were happening. The economy had

cooled, and changes in the nature of U.S. production had reduced the overall tonnage for a

given level of national output. In particular, the service sector of the economy grew disproportionately. Changes in the type of commodity moving (higher value-added-per-unit-weight

commodities like computers, electronic equipment, and the like) might also have reduced the

tonnage.

Trends and Choices

overestimated total freight tonmiles by some 27 percent, but

the modal split also shifted

significantly and

unexpectedly. Rail tonnage fell

short of predictions by 44

percent, pipeline by 30 percent,

and water transport by 18

percent. Trucking and air

transport were slightly less

1975

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1985

Ton-Miles of Freight (All Modes): 1975-2025

Billions of ton-miles

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected
1-16

than predicted. The large difference in the

rail mode, in particular, is probably a reflection of the large increase in the price of

petroleum that was expected but did not

materialize, which would have made rail

relatively more attractive compared to

trucking.

Over the past 10 years, freight ton-miles

have grown another 23 percent—just

trailing the growth in the U.S. economy.

Large increases in truck and rail freight

together can account for this growth.

Trucking, in particular, increased its modal

share from 23 to 30 percent in just 10 years.

By contrast, domestic waterborne transpor–

tation declined fairly dramatically, from a

26 percent share to an 18 percent share.

Pipeline transportation grew, but more

modestly than other modes. Aviation grew

by more than 70 percent. While it remains

a very small part of freight transportation

by tonnage, aviation accounts for about 30

percent of the value of U.S. merchandise

trades, and this share will increase.

The next 25 years will be a challenging

time for all sectors of the freight community.

Congestion and capacity issues are already

facing every mode. Intermodal connections

need to be made more efficient.

Much of the transportation infrastructure

requires modernization. Workforce

shortages are projected. At the same time,

e-commerce and increasing globalization of

the economy could increase transportation

demand. Just-in-time inventory systems

are likely to move even more inventory out

of warehouses and into the transportation

system, requiring both system capacity and

greater reliability. And economic

production (GDP) is likely to grow by 84

percent, in 2000 dollars.

Given all these factors, we expect freight

transportation to grow to just over 5 billion

ton-miles by 2025—a 29 percent increase

over our current estimates. But we also

expect further shifts in how freight is

moved and freight transportation is

managed:

A high volume of smaller shipments to

satisfy low or noninventory

1975

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1985

(based on statistical forecast in table 1-1)

Ton-Miles of Freight by Mode: 1975-2025

1980 1990

Billions of ton-miles

Billions of ton-miles

Millions of tons

Billions of ton-miles Billions of ton-miles Billions of ton-miles

1995 2005 2015 2025 2000 2010 2020

Projected

1975

0 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1980 1985

Domestic and foreign tons

Domestic ton-miles

1990 2000 2010 2020 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected

1975

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected

Rail

Water

Pipeline

1975

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected

1975

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected

Truck (intercity)

Air
1-17

production and distribution requirements and express package delivery. Highly

integrated freight transportation companies that provide full logistics/transportation

services using multiple modes.

The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) sestimates that while domestic water freight movement is

expected to increase moderately over the next quarter century, foreign waterborne

commerce is expected to double during the same period. A significant increase in

international freight movement will require much larger ships; deeper channels; and

high-capacity, highly efficient intermodal cargo-handling ports. The innovative marine

transportation system initiative started by Secretary Slater will be an important catalyst to

address the changes necessary to meet the challenges this growth will present.

A rapid growth in trucking due to the increase in point-of-sale and just-in-time inventory

systems, express package delivery, and e-commerce. Trucks will continue to dominate the

freight transportation market, although their share of the primary shipment tonnage

transported in the United States is expected to remain relatively constant for the next 10

years.

Air cargo growth is expected at a pace even greater than today’s because of e-commerce

and globalization. Larger aircraft, both dedicated freighters and passenger aircraft with

excess storage capacity, will carry cargo.

FRA projections show that rail ton-miles will grow an average of 2 percent per year

between 2000 and 2025.

The evolutionary changes of the past 25 years have created a highly efficient, market-driven

freight system with increased responsiveness and lower costs to consumers and producers.

But the success of our nation’s freight movement system has generated a new set of issues—

and future choices to be made—in areas of freight system development, utilization, and

management. The size and shape of the transportation system will be determined to a large extent by

strategies for capital investment, financing, research and technology, and balancing mobility needs

with safety and environmental considerations.

Transportation Safety

Safety concerns have always been a critically important area of emphasis for the public sector.

Safety is the Clinton-Gore Administration’s top transportation priority and the Department’s

“North Star” by which we set our goals and policies to improve safety in all transportation

modes. Under the Clinton-Gore Administration, the transportation system as a whole is the

safest it has ever been. Advances in technology, our renewed focus on partnerships aimed at

positively changing human factors, and effective legislation offer great hope for progress in

reducing transportation crashes and fatalities.

1975 1980

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0

1985

Fatalities

1990

Transportation Fatalities: 1975-2025

1995 2005 2015 2025 2000 2010 2020

Projected

Actual

USDOT Goal

Projected
1-18

In 1975, the nation saw nearly 50,000 fatalities associated with transportation. Highway

crashes were the leading cause of death for individuals between 1 and 44 years of age, and

accounted for 95 percent of all transportation fatalities [USDOT 1977].

At the time of the Trends and Choices report, the authors reasoned that if nothing were done, we

would “lose the race with increased travel” and the total number of deaths would rise

substantially. It was thought that by 1990 the highway death toll could exceed 60,000 per

year [USDOT 1977]. This was clearly unacceptable.

Instead, Secretary Coleman established a planning goal to implement countermeasures that

would cut the fatality rate (fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles of travel) in 1990. “The goal

is not, of course, to have 40,000 fatalities in 1990 but to cut the fatality rate by more than 40

percent and to save more than 20,000 lives that year compared to what the situation would be

without the countermeasures.” [USDOT 1977]. The resulting forecast—adjusted for this

ambitious plan—was 45,500 transportation fatalities in 1990.

That forecast was remarkably close to the actual number: 47,247 fatalities in 1990. Despite the

rapid growth of transportation usage, the number of fatalities had actually declined, with

safety gains in almost every category. Highway fatalities—still the dominant component of

overall transportation safety—essentially held steady in the face of a 60 percent rise in

vehicle-miles of travel [USDOT BTS 1999]. That accomplishment, alone, explains most of the

difference between the original “no intervention” projections and the actual numbers by 1990.

Meanwhile, maritime and aviation fatalities each dropped by more than 40 percent, and rail

fatalities fell by 13 percent [USDOT BTS 1999]. And since then, transportation fatalities have

dipped below 44,000.

Most advances in highway safety have come from improvements in road and motor vehicle

design, increased seat belt use, decreased drunk driving, and improvements at rail grade

crossings. Public awareness campaigns, launched by the USDOT in cooperation with nonprofit organizations, have also helped improve safety. We expect additional improvements

from advances in motor vehicle road designs, in-vehicle technologies, technology-enhanced

traffic law enforcement, and improvements in pedestrian/cyclist safety. Advances in trauma

response and medical treatment have significantly reduced the lethal consequences of many

crashes, but further improvements are possible. If the statistical trend of the past 25 years is

applied to the next 25 years, fatalities could be expected to decrease to about 40,300 per year by 2025.

However, we are not content with that scenario. So the USDOT has established a “stretch” goal of

reducing highway fatalities by 20 percent—to 33,500—by 2008. This will clearly require even

more aggressive and innovative approaches to preventing crashes and reducing their lethal

consequences. But if successful, this should put us on a path toward a major milestone: fewer

than 25,000 highway fatalities by 2025.

The goals and policies we set today will be pivotal for

transportation safety over the next 25 years. The high

marks we set today for the next quarter century will

hopefully propel our progress beyond what we might

otherwise achieve. Along with the goal for a 20 percent

reduction in highway fatalities, the USDOT has set

“stretch” goals for an 80 percent reduction in aviation

fatalities by 2007, and a 50 percent reduction in motor

carrier-related fatalities by 2010.

FAA’s “Safer Skies” initiative is focusing on six key causal factors that contribute to the

majority of incidents and crashes: controlled flight into terrain, loss of control, uncontrolled

“As we work together, let us aim

for ‘stretch goals’ – goals that

push us towards greater achievement than we can now imagine.”

Secretary Rodney Slater

U.S. Department of Transportation
1-19

engine failure, runway incursions, approaches and

landings, and weather. The FAA is working in

partnership with the airline industry, pilots, technicians,

and air traffic controllers to use improved forecasting

and new communication technology to detect severe

weather sooner.

In motor carrier safety, heightened public attention

combined with new legislative mandates will be the

basis for improvement—expanding safety regulatory and

enforcement programs, coupled with technological

innovations and proactive approaches by industry and

government to raise safety program quality and

effectiveness by all motor carrier operations.

In October 2000, President Clinton signed into law the “Department of Transportation and

Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2000.” This Act provides critical transportation safety

funding and contains a provision that will help set a national impaired driving standard at

0.08 Blood Alcohol Content, thereby reducing drunk driving on the nation’s roads and saving

lives.

Railroad crossing crashes and fatalities declined dramatically since 1975, and today, the

number of fatalities has been reduced by more than half. A significant factor contributing to

this decline has been the forging of strong partnerships among rail labor, management,

suppliers, state rail safety agencies, and other rail stakeholders. These partners impact

rulemaking through the Rail Safety Advisory Committee and the only collaborative safety

initiatives on every major railroad, called the Safety Assurance Compliance Program. These

efforts have made 1993-1999 the safest seven years in railroad history. These partnerships,

together with improved technology, education, and enforcement, can continue increasing

safety in the future. Railroad worker and passenger fatalities and injuries are also expected to

decline steadily in the next 25 years as a result of widespread use of Positive Train Control

(PTC) and other Advanced Train Control Systems, improved locomotive and passenger car

safety standards, and improvements in human factors. However, as train movements

increase, and development and urbanization spreads along railroad tracks, the incidence of

trespassing may increase, along with a corresponding rise in trespasser fatalities.

Fatalities associated with maritime operations have dropped nearly 50 percent since 1975,

due in large part to improvements in recreational boating safety and the U.S. Coast Guard’s

marine safety programs. Improvements resulted from implementation of the Federal Boat

Safety Act of 1971, which drove new regulations affecting both boat manufacturers and boat

operators. The U.S. Coast Guard has partnered with States to conduct boater safety and

education programs. The states have implemented their own boating safety programs with

the help of federal grant funding, and commercial marine operations have been enhanced

through Port State Control policies that focus on foreign vessels operating in U.S. ports—

covering the design and maintenance of ships, as well as the capabilities and qualifications of

their crews. An aggressive program to ensure that all foreign flag passenger vessels operating

from U.S. ports comply with all applicable international and U.S. standards has resulted in no

passenger deaths since 1984, and the death rate involving the U.S. domestic passenger vessel

fleet continues to decline.

In the future, increased global trade will result in ships that are larger and faster, and which

carry more cargo. Increased emphasis will be placed on changes in ship design and engineering standards to improve the structural safety, fire protection, and general safety of vessels.

Additional improvements in human performance will follow the introduction of advanced

technological, organizational management, and work environment products and practices.

“Secretary Rodney Slater has not

only tried to get more money for

the nation’s roads, bridges,

airports, rail, and mass transit –

he has also tried to humanize the

face of transportation and save

lives.”

William J. Clinton

President of United States

October 23, 2000
1-20

Box 1-4

FAA and NASA: Working Together on Aviation Vision and Goals

On October 9, 1998, FAA Administrator Jane Garvey and NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin

signed a formal agreement establishing a partnership between their agencies with the objectives of

defining and achieving specific goals in aviation and future space transportation. This

agreement, built on a long history of FAA-NASA joint efforts and cooperation, will provide the

leadership needed to define, develop, and deploy the research and technology necessary for the

nation’s aviation system to meet the difficult challenges of the coming decades.

Looking into the future, NASA and FAA are working to achieve long-terms goals in these critical

areas:

1. Reduce the aircraft accident rate by a factor of 5 by 2010, and by a factor of 10 by

2025.

2. Reduce CO2 emissions of future aircraft by 25 percent by 2010, 50 percent by 2025,

and possibly totally by 2030 to 2040; reduce NOx emissions of future aircraft by a

factor of 3 by 2010, 5 by 2025, and completely by 2030 to 2040.

3. Reduce the perceived noise levels of future aircraft by 50 percent (10 dB) from today’s

subsonic aircraft by 2010, and 75 percent (20 dB) by 2025.

4. While maintaining safety, triple the aviation system throughput, in all weather conditions,

by 2010.

5. Reduce the cost of air travel by 25 percent by 2010 and by 50 percent by 2025.

6. Reduce travel time to the Far East and Europe by 50 percent by 2025 and do so at

today’s subsonic ticket prices.

7. Invigorate the general aviation industry, delivering 10,000 aircraft annually by 2010

and 20,000 aircraft annually by 2025.

8. Provide next generation design tools and experimental aircraft to increase design

confidence, and cut the development cycle time for aircraft by 50 percent.

9. Reduce the payload cost to low-Earth orbit by an order of magnitude, from $10,000 to

$1,000 per pound, by 2010, and by an additional order of magnitude from thousands

to hundreds of dollars per pound by 2025.

10. Reduce the cost of interorbital transfer by an order of magnitude by 2015, and reduce

travel time for planetary missions by a factor of two by 2015, and by an order of

magnitude by 2025.

Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Roadmaps to the Future — Version 1.0, available at

http://www.nasa.gov/ as of Dec. 15, 2000.
1-21

Under Secretary Rodney Slater’s leadership, the USDOT developed a bold and comprehensive

plan to modernize our nation’s Marine Transportation System (MTS). He led an MTS Task

Force, which was a highly collaborative effort of federal, state, local, and private sector stakeholders, to develop a vision for the future, define the critical issues facing the industry, and

implement a course of action. Safety remains MTS Task Force’s most critical goal and will

guide our action plans to improve vessel operations and better manage our marine

infrastructure.

Technology, innovation, and leadership may well be the keys to major safety advances in the

future. In particular, widespread deployment of collision-avoidance technologies and mitigation strategies will be necessary to achieve the dramatic reductions in deaths and injuries

that we seek.

In March 1999, the USDOT held the first-ever National Transportation Safety Conference

where we identified the top 10 issues that would lead to the creation of a National Safety

Action Plan. These action plans were held together by the concept that “Safety is a promise

we make and keep together.”

1. Promote and require use of safety equipment in all transportation modes.

2. Promote a culture of safety for all transportation modes and the population.

3. Increase research of performance factors across all transportation modes.

4. Adopt a Federal uniform law of .08 percent blood alcohol concentration for drivers and a

zero tolerance level for truckers.

5. Increase funding to support enforcement of existing transportation laws and

regulations.

6. Maximize existing safety partnerships.

7. Do a better job of data collection and reporting across all jurisdictions.

8. Implement fatigue management practices.

9. Increase use of technology to improve safety in all transportation modes.

10. Improve international safety cooperation.

Moving forward from this conference, we have made progress. In October 2000, President

Clinton signed into law a national impaired driving standard of 0.08 Blood Alcohol

Concentration. This will reduce drunk driving on the nation’s roads and save lives. We have

taken steps to improve transportation safety data for strategic and operational decision, to

develop and use advanced safety technologies, and to fund the enforcement of transportationrelated laws and regulations.

The Environment

The future of the environment and the course of environmental protection are inextricably linked by a variety of factors

and events. These include the rate of growth in the

population and the economy, the use of and alternatives to

fossil fuels, the nature of land use development patterns, and

the application of technology and other factors that could

help limit the negative impact of transportation on the

environment.

Under the leadership of Vice President Gore, the Livable

Communities Initiative was developed to ensure an improved

quality of life and strong local economies by preserving open

spaces, enhancing air and water quality, securing safe streets,

and developing places where we work, but spend less time in

“We have pursued a new

strategy for prosperity–fiscal

discipline to cut interest rates

and spur growth; investments

in education and skills, in

science and technology and

transportation, to prepare our

people for the new economy;

and new markets for American

products and American

workers.”

William J. Clinton

President of the United States

January 27, 1998
1-22

traffic and more time with families, friends, and neighbors. In June 2000, First Lady Hillary

Rodham Clinton and Secretary Rodney Slater designated 16 National Millennium Trails that

connect our nation’s landscape, heritage, and culture and demonstrate our national

commitment to improving the quality of life for all Americans. Another initiative by President

Clinton addresses findings that show the burdens of a polluted environment are borne

disproportionately by members of minority and low-income communities. The initiative,

known as Environmental Justice, advocates policies that will either cease, reduce, or evenly

distribute such problems. Executive Order 12898 directs federal agencies to initiate

procedures and actions that make environmental justice part of their basic mission. In 1997,

the USDOT issued guidance to incorporate the principles of environmental justice throughout

its programs, policies, and activities.

It will become increasingly challenging to balance the need for greater mobility with the needs

of the environment. Growing tradeoffs among competing objectives make it more difficult, but

not impossible, to develop new transportation facilities as costs of mitigation increase.

Creative management of transportation systems to reduce congestion will become

increasingly important.

In the mid-1970s, transportation agencies were beginning to develop tools for assessing the

environmental impacts of proposed transportation activities, following enactment of the

National Environmental Policy Act in 1969. Other environmental statutes passed in the 1970s

addressed particular resources. Over time, more sophisticated tools were developed to

address environmental considerations, leading to a recent emphasis on improved processes

and outcomes.

In 1975, air pollution posed a serious public health threat that was capturing the public’s

attention. In that year, unleaded gasoline was introduced for use in automobiles equipped

with catalytic converters, and emissions standards for motor vehicles were becoming more

stringent in general. Transportation sources produced 85 million tons of carbon monoxide

(CO), 9 million tons of nitrogen oxide (NOx), and 11 million tons of volatile organic

compounds (VOC).

Trends and Choices forecast significant

reductions in these pollutants by 1990 as

mandated by the Clean Air Act (CAA) of

1970—CO declining from 85 to 27 million tons,

NOx declining from just over 9 million tons to

just under 9 million tons, and VOC declining

by more than half from 11 to just over 4 million tons. In fact, all three declined by 1990, but

only NOx declined by as much as Secretary Coleman’s forecast. CO emissions dropped not by

68 percent but by a more modest 38 percent; VOC fell not by 61 percent but by 35 percent.

Still, in view of the rapid growth in vehicle usage for both passengers and freight over this

period, these changes reflect dramatic improvements in emissions and, therefore, air quality.

The reduction in lead emissions, however, was most extraordinary—registering a decline of

more than 99 percent by 1990. Major amendments to the CAA were enacted in 1977 and 1990.

Emissions in all of these areas continued declining through 2000.

Clearly, this is not enough. Today, 39 percent of the U.S. population lives in a “nonattainment” area—not meeting National Ambient Air Quality Standards—for one or more of six

criteria pollutants. Ground-level ozone, in particular, remains an important problem for about

90 percent of people in these areas. Further advances can be achieved through greater choices

in transportation, reformulated fuels, or greater capture of pollutants. But projected growth in

the population and the economy, along with the associated increases in travel and shipping,

might easily offset these kinds of technological gains. And the use of fossil fuels or internal

combustion engines present powerful constraints on the amount of improvement that can be

Since 1993, highway emissions declined by

almost 15 percent – from 74.4 million tons

to 63.7 million tons in 1999.
1-23

made. The key will be in the

development and widespread

deployment of alternative energy

storage systems, including fuel cells,

batteries, hybrid vehicles, regenerative

braking, or even flywheels. With breakthroughs in one or more of these areas,

we can expect a big decline or even the

virtual elimination of vehicle

emissions.

Emissions from airports and aircraft

remain a concern, and in recent years,

we have promoted strategies to reduce

these emissions. International

standards for cleaner aircraft engines

have been developed, and today the

current stage 3 standard, fully

implemented in the United States by

2000, has resulted in the quitest aircraft

fleet in U.S. history. New Stage 4

aircraft will result in even quiter and

cleaner aircraft by 2025. Increased use

of cleaner ground support equipment

and other steps to reduce airportrelated emissions are likely to be in

place.

An emerging issue only beginning to be

discussed by the public in 1975 was

the potential for global climate change

resulting from the buildup of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

One of the most important of these

greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide,

and transportation is a major source of

this. In 1975, transportation produced

350 million metric tons of carbon

dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the

atmosphere carried 330 parts per

million CO2 by volume. Today,

transportation produces nearly 500 million metric tons of CO2 per year, and atmospheric

loading is estimated to be about 370 parts per million—1.3 times pre-industrial levels.

Scientists propose that changing global climate may result in further population shifts due to

shoreline flooding, changes in agricultural patterns, increased intensity in weather-related

disasters (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes), and direct impacts on transportation infrastructure.

The Clinton-Gore Administration has consistently supported strong environmental strategies

to mitigate global warming. The USDOT is committed to mitigating the unwanted side effects

of transportation-related emissions and established the Center for Climate Change and

Environmental Forecasting to identify and promote transportation strategies to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions.

Water pollution was not featured as a major problem in Trends and Choices, but the 1970s

brought a series of high-profile oil spills that focused international attention. In response,

regulations were developed in the 1970s and 1980s to address vessel design, construction,

1975

20

0

40

60

80

100

1980 1990 1985

Millions of tons

1995 2005 2015 2025 2000 2010 2020

Projected

CO (Carbon Monoxide)

Emissions from Transportation Sources: 1975-2025

1975

4

2

0

6

8

10

12

1980 1990 1985

Millions of tons

1995 2005 2015 2025 2000 2010 2020

Projected

NOx (Nitrogen Oxide)

1975

4

2

0

6

8

10

12

1980 1990 1985

Millions of tons

1995 2005 2015 2025 2000 2010 2020

Projected

HC (Hydrocarbon)
1-24

operations, maintenance, and manning, as well as many corresponding controls for the

shoreside facilities that transferred oil to and from these ships and barges. Then, in 1989, the

Exxon Valdez spilled a record 11 million gallons of oil in Valdez, Alaska. As a result, the Oil

Pollution Act of 1990 brought about some of the most widespread changes in petroleum

shipping to date, aimed especially at reducing the risk of catastrophic spills. This included

an upgraded liability and compensation regime to encourage preventive measures by vessel

owners and operators.

Although the total number of spills has

remained relatively constant, the total amount of

oil spilled into U.S. waters has fluctuated

significantly from year to year as a result of a

small number of very large spills. But large

spills clearly are becoming less common and

smaller spills are being controlled as well. The

future will depend very much on what happens

to motor vehicles over the next 25 years, because

transportation is the major user of oil, and U.S. production can supply only about half of all

U.S. oil consumption. A continuing flow of oil imports will present continuing risks of

spillage. A dramatic change in automobile design, on the other hand, could break the pattern

of both U.S. reliance on foreign oil and the associated pollution risks of moving that oil.

The Clinton-Gore Administration’s aggressive goals to speed innovations in environmental

technologies will increase vehicle fuel economy, reduce fuel use, improve safety, and lead to

greater U.S. energy independence. The Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles program,

a public-private endeavor, has made revolutionary technology breakthroughs for automobiles

and light trucks that will make our economy more energy independent and help meet such

environmental challenges as global warming.

The advent of increased environmental awareness and legislative action in the early 1970s

paved the way for measures to prevent water contamination from other transportation-related

sources, such as salt and other chemicals used to deice roads and runways. These actions

included the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972 and the Clean Water Act of 1977.

With the expected increase in number of vehicles, the improper disposal of used motor oil may

increase unless new vehicle technologies that do not require the use of motor oil are

developed. There is a need for proper design of transportation infrastructure to reduce

pollution from runoff from highways and airports. Use of new materials and sensor

technologies can prevent leakage from oil storage tanks. The use of nanotechnology may

provide materials for road surfacing that will prevent ice formation on the roads without the

use of salts. Some of these options may be expensive to deploy, but if we are to achieve longterm sustainability, they may become our only options. Additionally, when we consider the

societal and environmental costs of leaving these concerns unchecked, we may conclude that

the mitigation costs are well within reason.

Wetlands—an important component of our complex

ecological systems—came under increasing pressure

from agricultural activities, urbanization, and

transportation infrastructure development during the

1960s and 1970s, but were only just emerging as a

major issue in 1975. At that time, wetland loss was

estimated at approximately 450,000 acres per year,

primarily due to agricultural activities. As a result of

increased emphasis on preserving our environment,

wetland loss has been reduced to 50,000 acres per

Striving to lessen noise pollution from

aircraft, the USDOT worked with the

airline industry and achieved remarkable results. In 1993, 2.1 million

Americans were exposed to significant

aircraft noise. By 1999, this number

had fallen to 680,000.

During the past eight years, the USDOT

partnered with the shipping industry to

develop prevention and response standards that reduced maritime oil spill

from 5.3 gallons per million gallons

shipped in 1993 to 2.7 in 1999.
1-25

year, and less than 10 percent of this is estimated to be from highway construction activities.

Today, wetlands are being restored as we work toward the national goal of a net gain in

wetlands. In 1996, FHWA began nationwide monitoring of annual wetland loss and gain for

the Federal-aid highway program. The data collected show that across the country the

Federal-aid highway program has achieved a 150 percent gain in wetland acreage (i.e., 2.5

acres of wetlands gained for every acre of loss). The Federal-aid highway program has

produced a total net gain of 11,628 acres of wetlands nationwide since 1996. It will be

important to improve our conservation of finite resources such as wetlands and other

habitats, cultural and natural resources, and green spaces as transportation systems are

planned and implemented.

The recent emphasis on managing watersheds and conserving groups of species and

ecosystems is likely to continue as we better understand the ecosystem processes that govern

environmental quality. The challenge of reducing transportation pathways for the spread of

invasive alien species is likely to continue into the next 25 years.

An unintended consequence of transportation is noise pollution. Today, highway and aircraft

noise are considered major environmental problems, and with the projected growth in

highwayand air travel by 2025, there is a need to further reduce vehicle noise. Although noise

was considered in Trends and Choices, the only observation made about the future suggested

that with the advent of quieter aircraft, the number of people exposed to aviation noise would

be reduced. The impact of highway noise has been mitigated over the past 25 years through

development of quieter engines, improved noise mufflers in vehicles, and construction of

noise barriers along major highways. The Aircraft Noise and Capacity Act of 1990 made the

quieter Stage 3 aircraft mandatory and older Stage 2 aircraft were fitted with “hush kits” to

meet noise-reduction requirements. Stage 4 aircraft will further reduce the impact of aviation

noise and quieter aircraft should make up much, if not all, of the fleet in place in 2025.

International cooperation in development of noise standards will continue to be important as

new noise standards are developed due to growth in passenger travel and freight movements.

A major challenge for the future will be managing growth so that we retain our economic and

environmental viability. Improved linkages between transportation and land-use planning

will be needed to achieve a more sustainable environment. Dispersed, auto- and truckdependent development patterns, often referred to as urban sprawl, can increase costs of

providing community services and increase congestion, pollution, and consumption of

natural resources. Land-use patterns that support a range of transportation choices—

communities that encourage use of transit, walking, and bicycling—can begin to address

these concerns, but will take many years to develop. Similarly, steps to increase efficiencies in

and reduce environmental impacts of freight movement are also needed. By 2025, many of the

environmental issues and problems are likely to be similar to those of today’s world, largely

because any changes or advances that have a substantial positive impact on the environment

take a long time to produce results. We expect water quality and air and noise pollution to

continue to improve due largely to enhanced technology (e.g., advances in vehicles, use of

nanotechnology, and implementation of ITS), shifts in energy sources and modes of

transportation, and reductions in pollutant runoff.

We will need to continue to minimize air, water, and noise pollution. This will require

enhanced technology (e.g., advances in vehicles and fuels and implementation of ITS), shifts

in modes of transportation, and better means of avoiding environmental impacts (e.g.,

advancing designs that minimize pollution from runoff). Identifying financing for our

environmental efforts will also be a major challenge. There will be a greater emphasis on

options that reduce the demand for transportation, such as telecommuting, electronic

communications, and alternative work schedules coupled with efforts to further reduce

pollution and energy consumption. Other options will include peak pricing and various user

fees to positively impact congestion and environmental concerns.
1-26

Energy

In 1975, the United States consumed almost one-third (29 percent) of the world’s petroleum

production [USDOT BTS 1999]. Transportation represented a little over half (54.8 percent) of

that consumption, but the United States was producing nearly two-thirds of its petroleum

needs. Trends and Choices—written at a time of rising fuel prices—projected a slight (2 percent)

decline in transportation energy usage by 1990, generally assuming that gains in fleet energy

efficiency and changes in travel behavior would offset increases in travel and freight

shipping.

By 1990, while passenger travel was nearly as predicted (within 2 percent) and freight

transportation was actually much lower than predicted, energy usage by the transportation

sector had risen by 48 percent. While the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards

improved the fuel efficiency of highway vehicles—especially passenger vehicles—in the

1970s and early 1980s, these improvements began to level off by the late 1980s. Fuel prices

had moderated, and consumers continued to use the automobile as the predominant choice

for personal transportation. The average fuel economy of passenger cars hovered at 21.7 miles

per gallon while the standard mandated by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975

was 27.5 miles per gallon by 1985. Since that time, new energy efficient technologies have

been applied, for the most part, to enable owners to drive larger, more powerful vehicles,

rather than reduce the amount of fuel used.

The trend of the 1990s is an extension of the trend of the late 1980s. With no changes being

made to the CAFE regulations, and with a lower standard for passenger trucks than cars,

ownership of light duty trucks, especially SUVs, began to soar. As a result, the energy

efficiency of the U.S. highway vehicle fleet has begun to decline, while total vehicle-miles

traveled continues to grow (around 2 percent per year).

Technology will probably be the single, most important factor in where we go from here.

Regardless of the energy source, transportation will still require energy. If current trends are

projected forward, energy use is likely to be 45 percent greater by 2025 than today, or

depending on technologies that are deployed, increases may be offset by gains in technology.

For example, electric motors are about twice as efficient as internal combustion engines in

converting energy into work. They may be powered by batteries, fuel cells, solar panels,

flywheels, or any of a variety of energy storage technologies. In addition, they will take

advantage of lightweight materials and low-carbon fuel. Their widespread use could clearly

reverse the long-term increases in energy use by transportation. Hybrid engines that use a

combination of conventional internal combustion engines and battery-powered electric

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0.50

0

Constant 2000 dollars

Projected

1950 1955 1960

Per Gallon Gasoline Pump Prices in Constant 2000 Dollars: 1975-2000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
1-27

motors have already been introduced to the market. Honda’s Insight gasoline-electric hybrid

reportedly can achieve 70 mpg on the highway and 65 mpg in combined city/highway

driving [Insight]. Perhaps just as importantly, most of these technologies would alter our

dependence on oil—with all of the associated environmental and national security

implications.

Two partnership programs initiated by the Clinton-Gore Administration, the Partnership for a

New Generation of Vehicles program and the 21st Century Truck Initiative, are making

significant progress in developing vehicles with low emissions and exceptional fuel efficiency.

Today, as part of this federal government / U.S. auto industry partnership, DaimlerChrysler,

Ford, and General Motors would be marketing hybrid vehicles that combine a gasoline or

diesel-powered engine with an electric motors. Some models are capable of obtaining up to

80 miles per gallon on the highway. Environmental pressures from oil consumption and

concerns about oil supply will continue to drive development of alternatives. Public

acceptance of new technologies will be key. Public policy and public-private sector

collaboration that facilitates the deployment of those technologies will be the major challenge

for government agencies. With the right alignment of policies to stimulate the availability of

highly efficient vehicles, with full utility and performance, and at reasonable costs (e.g.

hybrid-electrics), transportation energy use would grow at a diminishing rate.

By the year 2025, transportation energy use is projected to rise from 25 trillion Btu per year to

nearly 37 trillion Btu. Over the next quarter century, transportation energy growth will

continue to be dominated by the

burning of gasoline and diesel fuels.

New powertrain designs, such as

hybrid electric and fuel cells, will

become more common. However,

these new vehicle designs will be

introduced slowly into the fleet over

the next 10 years, and it will take

several years before their sales

volumes comprise a significant

portion of new vehicle sales.

Because it will take nearly a decade

for such vehicles to make up a

significant portion of the total U.S.

vehicle fleet, their effect on

transportation energy use may only begin to make an impact by 2025. By then, estimates are

that vehicles powered by advanced technology powertrains will slightly exceed 50 percent of

new car sales. Alternative policies such as tax incentives will encourage buyers to purchase

these new vehicles.

Globalization

The trend toward globalization was beginning to take shape when Trends and Choices was

written. The leader in this phenomenon was the automobile industry. During that period,

there was a high demand for fuel-efficient Japanese and European cars due to the energy

crisis, and in 1975, 18 percent of the cars sold in the United States were imported. At that time,

American automakers did not have any manufacturing facilities abroad. But soon, General

Motors acquired an ownership stake in the Japanese manufacturing company Isuzu, and in

1978, the first foreign car was produced in the United States by Volkswagen. Since then, the

increasing trend toward cross-border ownership and manufacturing facilities has led to

intense consolidation and competition within the global auto manufacturing industry. Today,

1975

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1985

Btu Used by Transportation Sources: 1975-2025

1980

Trillions of Btu

1990 2000 2010 2020 1995 2005 2015 2025

Projected
1-28

General Motors has manufacturing facilities in 50 countries, and Ford Motor Company has

such facilities in 30 countries outside the United States. Similarly, there are numerous foreign

manufacturers now operating in the United States.

Advances in communication and transportation technologies have been major forces

allowing for the rapid growth in globalization and economic integration worldwide. Lower

transportation costs and higher levels of service and speed have contributed to widely

dispersed production and distribution facilities managed by firms that are truly international

in scope.

The trend toward globalization is also highlighted by the increase in international air travel—

both leisure- and business-related. This has heightened our sensitivity to the safety and

security of passengers traveling across the globe and different aviation systems. Under the

Clinton-Gore Administration, the United States signed 50 open skies agreements with

countries around the world, extending the international reach of the nation’s aviation system

and making it truly global. These agreements remove all restrictions on airline service and

increase competition and service. The FAA has initiated regional safety efforts, such as Safe

Skies for Africa and the Partnership for Safer Skies with Latin America. The International

Civil Aviation Organization has started the Universal Safety Oversight and Audit Program to

ensure that countries provide adequate safety oversight in areas of personnel licensing,

aircraft operations, and airworthiness. At the 1999 International Aviation Conference, held in

Chicago, Secretary Rodney Slater announced safety audit requirements for U.S. carrier’s codesharing partners.

The integration of manufacturing facilities around the globe has been associated in many

countries with the growing divestment of national firms from government ownership. This

trend has important implications for international transportation as well, bringing efficiency

and competitive marketing to the forefront as criteria of operating decisions. Supporting this

development is the progressive deregulation of transportation, although there are still many

restrictions on which carriers can operate and where they can pick up or discharge passengers and cargo. Privatization and deregulation have increased the pressure on airlines and

ocean shippers either to merge or to conclude marketing alliances across national boundaries.

Advances in computerized reservations, container shipping technology, and on-demand air

freight have put a competitive premium on seamless integration of logistic services. Future

transportation providers may have major operations in all modes and all regions of the world.

We must continue to ensure that such consolidation does not reduce the competitiveness of

the transportation industry.

During the next 25 years, the phenomenon of globalization will gain more momentum as more

countries become linked by advanced information technologies and financial markets. If the

necessary capital and infrastructure investments are not available to the less developed

countries, they will not be able to share in the economic benefits of globalization, and they will

fall further behind in the world economy. As globalization spreads, average per-capita

income of countries around the world will become closer. These changes will also demand a

rethinking of the remaining responsibilities of government toward private industries.

International transportation will continue to require enforcement of safety codes,

environmental standards, fair labor practices, precautions against criminal activity, and

antitrust protections. In dealing with globalized firms, the present geographic division of

sovereign authority will frequently prove inadequate, and the United States will have to

collaborate with other countries to develop a common program.
1-29

Technology

Today, we have indeed reached a stage where we direct our resources toward finding

solutions to our problems through technological improvements and enhanced efficiency. A

prime example of a technology employed to solve problems and enhance efficiency is the

computer chip, which makes automatic braking, fuel injection, pollution control, airbag

deployment, and many other in-vehicle systems possible. Embedded computer chips are at

the heart of many advancements that will one day become standard equipment on

automobiles and trucks, such as driver alertness, perimeter (front, behind, to the side)

monitoring, accident avoidance, automatic accident reporting, and automatic vehicle

operation systems.

For example, the accuracy of GPS in real-time navigation and tracking is driving the

development of several advanced systems across all modes of transportation. By 2025, GPS

technologies will proliferate through all modes of transportation, functioning as both a

transportation utility and a personal utility—an integral component of vehicles as well as

such personal items as cellular phones. GPS will provide the basic infrastructure for a

continuing and substantial improvement in the safety and efficiency of our national air space

system.

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) are being widely deployed to improve the mobility

and safety of our surface transportation systems. Technologies such as ramp meters, electronic surveillance, and signal synchronization and pre-emption; advanced weather and

road condition information; computer-aided dispatch systems; commercial vehicle technologies; and a host of infrastructure and vehicle innovations promise to reduce congestion,

improve efficiency, and make travel safer. While all of these benefits are expected as we

increase the deployment of GPS and ITS, some of the gains may be offset by the expected

growth in highway travel by 2025.

The current trend of embedding new technologies into the operations and management of the

transportation systems will continue and probably accelerate over the next 25 years. The

management of transportation systems will become highly automated and increasingly realtime. Congestion will remain an issue, but advances in communication technologies will

allow increased telecommuting options. New technologies will allow for the realtime pricing

of transportation facilities to increase efficiency and reduce congestion delays. Information

technology will play a prominent role both in shaping future transportation demands and in

enabling advanced management and operations of transportation services in an era of

constrained expansion of physical infrastructure.

National Security

In 1975, the United States and the Soviet Union were engaged in a protracted cold war, and

the world was split into two major military alliances. In Trends and Choices, the authors tested

the capacity of the intercity transportation impact for a conventional two-front war in 1990.

They concluded that the 1990 national transportation system would have sufficient overall

capacity. They reasoned that as the nation’s transportation system continues to grow, the

requirements of a military emergency become a smaller proportion of the total transportation

demand.

In the early 1990s, the Gulf War proved that reasoning to be essentially valid. But the focus on

national security has shifted considerably from the view in the 1970s. The Soviet Union

collapsed along with the communist bloc, and today every country but one—Cuba— in the

Western Hemisphere is a democracy. We now have increasing concerns over terrorism, and

regional conflicts are a chronic problem. We also have continuing incidents of illegal
1-30

immigration and drug smuggling by sea. Infrastructure security—both physical and

technological—is another area of growing national concern, and access to oil—a factor in the

Gulf War—continues to present a national security interest for the United States.

Continuing globalization of the world’s economies will profoundly affect the national

security picture. Globalization tightly couples the economies of different countries and tends

to increase the power and influence of the private sector. It also tends to blur political

boundaries and stimulate cross-boundary agreements, such as the European Union and the

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The forces of economic efficiency are likely

to further stimulate the formation of such alliances. These forces will likely lead to an increase

in the volume of trade and movement of people. In addition, our transportation system will be

called on to meet the requirement to provide the just-in-time delivery of goods. This poses

significant security challenges for the United States by a myriad of threats such as cyberterrorism, smuggling of people and illegal drugs, protection of natural resources, and the

introduction of weapons of mass destruction.

The maritime environment is particularly challenging with the heavy volume of containerized

cargo inherent in the system. The key is in identifying the threats before they can manifest

themselves in U.S. cities and waterways. To accomplish this, the USDOT, through the U.S.

Coast Guard, will develop a new approach suited to the information age to allow us to

conduct a risk assessment of every arriving, departing, transiting, and loitering vessel within

a geographic coastal area of responsibility. This maritime goal dovetails with existing or

envisioned security and transparency needs for other transportation modes, elevating border

and economic security, as called for in President Clinton’s National Security Strategy.

By 2025, transportation and computerization together will be the catalysts for continuing

expansion of the global economy. International interests, in turn, should continue to grow in

importance. Globalization challenges conventional thinking about national interests. As

commerce grows in importance, so, too, will transportation; however, this will also increase

our vulnerability to security threats. Policy direction will, therefore, be guided, by security

considerations.

Policy

Today, a little over seven years after passage of the Government Performance and Results Act

of 1993 (GPRA), the challenge to manage our programs with quantitative information that is

reliable, accurate, timely, and relevant, is even greater. In keeping with this effort to streamline

government, Vice President Gore’s 1993 National Partnership on Reinvention moved the

federal government to be more accountable to the public and not restrained by rules and

regulations that can hamper federal agencies in carrying out their missions.

The USDOT was already poised for implementing GPRA, in part because of the visionary

work of our predecessors who, like Secretary Coleman, laid out 10 principles encompassing

the policy objectives of the time, addressing government’s relationship with the private sector,

international transportation concerns, how transportation can contribute to an enhanced

quality of life, maintaining multimodal diversity and competition, and the role of the federal

government. Many of the goals articulated then have since been met. But, again, we aren’t

stopping to merely recount our successes. We know we have much to do to improve the

transportation system, to make it as safe as it can be; to finish the job of making it accessible to

everyone; to increase its capacity to support a rapidly expanding economy; to protect and

enhance communities and the natural environment; and to make our transportation system

and the nation secure.
1-31

The Federal Highway Administration has been a leader in the application of concrete,

asphalt, and steel. Administrator Slater made it a top priority to make the agency about more

than concrete, asphalt, and steel—making it about people. Innovations included touring

thousands of miles to meet with state and local community leaders to better respond to their

highway transportation needs. This resulted in building bridges to carry new ideas and to

help transform both federal and state DOTs. He also called for innovation in the way we paid

for surface transportation. This resulted in the programs of innovative finance that have

become a standard, adding billions to transportation infrastructure needs every year. He also

recognized the need for expanded uses of research and technology. As a result, we have

introduced many new technologies that have made our transportation system safer and more

efficient.

As we take stock of the challenges we face, the USDOT has embraced a decisionmaking

process that will ensure the public’s interests are served, and that the public is involved in the

process. This new process began with two plans that were subsequently named “best in

government” by Congress—the Department’s first Strategic Plan followed by the Department’s first annual Performance Plan. In successive steps, we identified the outcomes that the

public cares about, set goals to achieve those outcomes, developed our programs and budgets

to deliver on our commitments, then measured our performance against our goals. Not all

goals were met—to do so would indicate that we had made them too easy to achieve.

Consequently, even when we fell short of the mark, we achieved many improvements in safety, mobility, economic growth, the human and natural environment, and national security.

The management of the vast transportation enterprise needs data: to monitor its performance

and the performance of elements it affects to see if things are getting better, to monitor its

environment, to plan for future transportation, and for command and control. But a particular

effort needs to be made on behalf of decisionmakers so they can determine the state of the

system, directions of change, and the costs involved in intervening to make things better.

A quickened pace that is driven by technology makes prediction a risky business. Yet, in

some sense, we must do it. It is better to move with a direction in mind. This report also poses

a challenge to its readers to debate what we have written and improve on the forecasts.

Perhaps even in a few years we will have a brand new picture of the year 2025. But as Karl

Pearson—considered the father of modern statistics—said, “No scientific investigation is final; it

merely represents the most probable conclusion that can be drawn from the data at the disposal of the

writer. A wider range of facts, or more refined analysis, experiment, and observation will lead to new

formulas and new theories. This is the essence of scientific progress.”

The Changing Face of Transportation is a part of our foundation. Its companion report— Policy

Architecture: A Framework for Transportation Decision Making in the 21st Century—is our blueprint

for the process of building a transportation system that gives the people of America the ability

to live their lives to the fullest. Together, these documents are aimed at improving our ability

to formulate good decisions, making the transportation system better serve the needs of the

American people, and involving everyone in the process. They will help demonstrate a

simple truth: that transportation truly is “the tie that binds.”

Overview of This Report

The Changing Face of Transportation provides a historical, perspective, and futuristic look for

policymaking. It reviews the major policy milestones of the past quarter century, and the

social and economic context for those milestones and looks ahead to 2025. Secretary Slater

has challenged us to develop data as a logical foundation for making future policy choices.

Some of those choices are apparent already. Undoubtedly, others will emerge as the future

unfolds.
1-32

References

Clinton-Gore Livable Communities website (Clinton-Gore). 2000. Available at http://

www.livablecommunities.gov, as of September 26, 2000.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO). 2000. The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2001-

2010, table 13. Available at http://www.cbo.gov/, as of August 30, 2000.

Insight. Honda website. 2000. Available at http://www.honda2000.com/models/insight/

engineering/index.html, as of September 27, 2000.

U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC), U.S. Census Bureau (Census). 1999. Statistical

Abstract of the United States. Washington, DC.

U.S. Department of Justice (USDOJ). 2000. Guidance Concerning Environmental Justice.

Available at http://www.usdoj.gov/enrd/ejguide.html, as of September 26, 2000.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). 1977. National Transportation Trends and Choices

(To the Year 2000). Washington, DC. 12 January.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). 1999.

National Transportation Statistics 1999. Washington, DC.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). 1999. An Assessment of the U.S. Marine Transportation System: A Report to Congress.

Table 1-1 Sources

Population

1975 and 1990 actual: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States,

table 2, p. 8 (Washington, DC:1999), available at www.census.gov/statab, as of August 2000.

1990 Coleman forecast: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Transportation Trends and Choices (To the Year

2000), table II.2, p. 23 (Washington, DC: 1977).

2000 and 2025: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Projections of the Total Resident

Population as of July 1: Middle, Lowest, and Highest, and Zero International Migration Series, 1999 to 2100,

available at www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/summary/np-t1.txt, as of September 3, 2000.

Gross National Product

1975 and 1990 actual: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States,

1999, table 722, available at www.census.gov/statab, as of August 2000. Note: 1992 dollars converted to 1975

dollars. 1990 Coleman forecast: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Transportation Trends and Choices (To

the Year 2000), table II.2, p. 23 (Washington, DC: 1977).

2000 and 2025: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, unpublished estimates based

on Congressional Budget Office forecasts to 2010.

This report is organized around six thematic areas:

Growth, Deregulation, and Intermodalism;

Safety;

Globalization;

People, Energy, and the Environment;

Technology; and

National Security.

Within each of these areas, we look at the world in the mid 1970s, the changes that have taken

place since then, and the implications of those trends and others for the future of 2005.

A glossary at the end of the report clarifies terms used in the body of the report.
1-33

Gross Domestic Product

2000: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2000,

BEA news release, available at www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrel/gdp200p.htm, as of August 25, 2000.

2025: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, unpublished estimates.

Passenger-Miles

1975 and 1990 Coleman forecast: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Transportation Trends and Choices

(To the Year 2000), table II.2, p. 23 (Washington, DC: 1977).

1990 actual: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics

1999, table 1-30, pp. 46-47 (Washington, DC: 1999).

2000 and 2025: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, unpublished estimates.

Licensed Drivers

1975 actual and 1990 actual: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National

Transportation Statistics 1999, p. 408 (Washington, DC: 1999).

1990 Coleman forecast: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Transportation Trends and Choices (To the Year

2000), p. 96 (Washington, DC: 1977). 2000 and 2025: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation

Statistics, unpublished estimates.

Vehicles

1975 actual and 1990 actual: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National

Transportation Statistics 1999, table 1-9, p. 13 (Washington, DC: 1999).

1990 Coleman forecast: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Transportation Trends and Choices (To the Year

2000), p. 96 (Washington, DC: 1977).

2000 and 2025: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, unpublished estimates.

Ton-Miles of Freight

1975 actual and 1990 actual: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National

Transportation Statistics 1999, table 1-38, p. 61 (Washington, DC: 1999).

1975 and 1990 ton data: Army Corps of Engineers, Waterborne Commerce of the United States, 1998.

2000 and 2025: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, unpublished estimates.

2000 and 2025 ton estimates: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Coast Guard, personal communication, 2000.

Air Pollution

1975 actual and 1990 actual: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National

Transportation Statistics 1999, table 1-38, p. 61 (Washington, DC: 1999).

2000: U.S. Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, personal communication, 2000.

2025: David Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, personal communication, 2000.

Fatalities

1975: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics 1994,

(Washington, DC: 1994).

2000: U.S. Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Abency, personal communication, 2000.

2025: David Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, personal communication, 2000.

Energy

1975 actual and 1990 actual: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National

Transportation Statistics 1999, table 4-38 (Washington, DC: 1999). EPA. GHG Trends, 1990-98.

1990 Coleman forecast: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Transportation Trends and Choices (To the Year

2000) table II.2, p. 23 (Washington, DC: 1977).

2000 and 2025: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, unpublished estimates.

Growth, Deregulation,

and Intermodalism

chapter 2

“Looking into the future, we have to change our attitudes about “Looking into the future, we have to change our attitudes about

transportation. This is the biggest challenge of transportation.”

Congressman James Oberstar

2025 Visioning Session, San Jose, CA, June 24, 2000

“The transportation enterprise must get smarter “The transportation enterprise must get smarter, marrying new

technologies with new innovative financing techniques.”

Professor Joseph Giglio, Northeastern University

2025 Visioning Session, New York, May 18, 2000

“In the next 25 years, the challenge we will face is inertia or the

unwillingness to try to do new things.”

Roy Kienitz

Executive Director, Surface Transportation Policy Project

2025 Visioning Session, Saint Louis, Missouri, June 13, 2000

2-1

Growth, Deregulation,

and Intermodalism

chapter 2

Over the past quarter century, the American transportation system changed dramatically in

size and form as it carried ever-increasing numbers of passengers and volumes of freight, both

domestically and internationally. A steady increase in population (figure 2-1) coupled with

strong economic growth (figure 2-2) is largely responsible for tremendous demand for

transportation services today.

Other forces also have had a significant impact on the way our transportation system has

grown and the shape it has taken. Deregulation of the transportation industry is one such

force. Deregulation of the aviation, rail, motor carrier, and maritime shipping industries over

the past 25 years opened the door to thousands of new competitors, creating an environment

that spawned innovative, efficient, and affordable transportation services, which supported a

rapidly globalizing economy. Subsequently, globalization enabled growth of a transportation

system that, today, spans every corner of the world.

U.S. Population: 1975-2025

Figure 2-1

Note: Middle series projection.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States 1999

(Washington, DC: 1999). Projections: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. Annual Projections of the Total

Resident Population as of July 1: Middle, Lowest, Highest, and Zero International Migration Series, 1999 to 2100, available at

http://www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/summary/np-t1.txt, as of Sept. 3, 2000. Millions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
2-2

Intermodalism in the freight industry—the seamless movement of goods by several transportation modes on the same journey—is another significant change that has influenced the

growth of the transportation system in the last 25 years. One of the most visible manifestations of intermodalism is the growth in container traffic, spurred by technological advances

and the search for faster and cheaper ways to transport freight across the globe. Innovative

ways of doing business—just-in-time manufacturing and delivery and supply chain

logistics—demand intermodal movement within a guaranteed timeframe. While these

changes are reverberating throughout the entire transportation enterprise, other factors are

also influencing the growth of our transportation system:

1. Federal budget deficits, which peaked during the 1980s and early 1990s (figure 2-3),

reduced the available funding for building and maintaining transportation infrastructure.

But by the late 1990s, the budget deficit was significantly reduced, and in recent years,

unprecedented levels of public investment have been made in new transportation

infrastructure. Projected federal budget surpluses over the next decade may result in even

higher funding levels. The recently enacted U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT)

appropriations budget of $58.5 billion is the largest in the Department’s history.

2. Communities concerned about transportation’s impacts on their quality of life,

particularly economic development, environment, land use, and congestion, have

increased decisionmaking authority over how transportation funds will be spent in their

areas. Little by little, these decisions have helped shape the national transportation

system. Recently enacted surface and aviation transportation reauthorization measures

increase the opportunity for public participation.

3. Technological innovations in the highway, rail, air, pipeline, and maritime transportation

industries have made transportation cheaper, more productive, and, in many cases, faster.

Transportation is also safer, with fatality rates dropping on our nation’s highways,

Economic Growth in the United States: 1975-99 (Gross Domestic Product)

Figure 2-2

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Accounts data, available

at http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/gdplev.htm, as of Aug. 24, 2000. Billions of chained 1996 dollars

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
2-3

among recreational boaters and maritime workers, on the rails, in the skies, from pipeline

mishaps, and from hazardous materials discharges. On the whole, our transportation

system is the safest it has ever been.

The three interlinked trends—transportation system growth, deregulation, and intermodalism

coupled with economic growth, increased funding for infrastructure, and technological

innovations—reshaped the transportation enterprise in the last quarter century and produced

enviable productivity gains across all modes of transportation (figure 2-4). The following

sections, beginning with Growth of the Transportation System, trace each of these trends and

their impacts in the last 25 years.

Federal Budget Outlays and Receipts: 1975-2005

Figure 2-3

Source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Budget Office, Historical Tables

(Washington, DC: Annual issues). Billions of dollars (current)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2001 2003 2005 

estimates

Deficit

Receipts

Outlays Surplus

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, December 1999.

Productivity Trends for Transportation Industries: 1955-97

(Index of output per employee)

Figure 2-4

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

1987=100

1995 1997

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Motor Carrier Act of 1980

Airline Deregulation Act of 1978

Staggers Rail Act of 1980

Railroad (SIC 4011)

Trucking, except

local (SIC 4213)

Air Transportation

Petroleum Pipelines
2-4

Growth of the Transportation System

In the past two decades, the focus of transportation shifted from building transportation

systems to adapting and modernizing transportation facilities and services. Growth during

this period has largely been in use of the transportation system. People are traveling more

frequently and more often for personal and business trips, and

increasing numbers of people are vacationing and working in

other countries. In business and industry, domestic and

international companies have spurred an increase in the

movement of freight around the world.

The interlocking elements of the U.S. transportation system

support 4.5 trillion miles of passenger travel and about

3.7 trillion ton-miles of goods movement. The system includes

more than 5.5 million miles of public roads, railroads, waterways, and oil and gas pipelines; over 19,000 public and private

airports; and 230 million motor vehicles, railcars, aircraft,

ships, and recreational boats. Growth and change have been

experienced in several elements of the U.S. transportation

system:

Highway travel is the predominant mode of transportation for

both passengers and freight. The

number of vehicle-miles traveled

now exceeds 2.6 trillion miles,

and continues to grow at a rate of

about 2.5 percent per year. More

freight is moving on the

highways than ever before.

[USDOT BTS 1997a; USDOC

1977].

Transit encompasses a wide

range of vehicles, services, and

settings. There were approxi–

mately 6,000 transit systems in

the United States in the late 1990s

[APTA 2000]. Ridership in 1999

reached 9 billion trips—the

highest since the 1964 level of

10.4 billion.

Once the country’s leading provider of intercity freight and passenger transportation, the

railroad system continues to be one of the nation’s principal modes of transportation,

although its share of both the freight and passenger market has declined considerably. In

1977, railroads accounted for 37 percent of the freight ton-miles. About 3 percent of all

intercity passengers traveling on public carriers use rail service, compared with 5 percent

in 1977.

Commercial airports operating in the mid-1970s serviced 4.5 million flights. By 1999, the

number of flights handled at those same airports nearly doubled to 8.5 million. Passenger

traffic has nearly tripled since 1975.

“Together, the united forces of

our communication and transportation systems are dynamic

elements in the very name we

bear—United States. Without

them, we would be a mere

alliance of many separate

parts.”

General Dwight D. Eisenhower

Seven of the top 10 Public Works Projects of the 20th

Century (in no particular order) were transportation

related:

Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART)

Tennesse Valley Project

Panama Canal

Interstate Highway System

Reversal of the Chicago River

St. Lawrence Seaway/Power Project

Golden Gate Bridge

The other three projects are the Grand Coulee

Dam & Columbia River Basin Project; Hoover

Dam, Boulder Canyon; and Hyperion Treatment

Plant.

American Public Works Association,

Top Ten Public Work Projects of the Century

www.pubworks.org
2-5

The U.S. Marine Transportation System consists of waterways, ports, and their intermodal

connections. Each component is a complex system within itself and is closely linked with

the other components. Since 1975, domestic shipping has grown 16 percent by weight

while waterborne foreign trade increased by 65 percent by weight. It is expected that

these volumes will more than double over the next 20 years.

The following sections highlight the growth across all transportation modes in the last

quarter century.

Highway System

The United States highway network consists of 4 million miles of roads and streets. Highway

bridges also comprise a critical link in the nation’s infrastructure. At present, there are about

600,000 bridges on the entire highway network [USDOT BTS 1999]. State and local governments control most roads and bridges in the United States, but all highways serve as part of

an integrated national network.

The Interstate Highway System (IHS) accounts for only one percent of all highway mileage,

but carries 25 percent of the total vehicle miles of travel (VMT) [USDOT FHWA 1998]. With the

completion of the Interstate System in the 1980s, the focus shifted toward maintaining and

improving the system, improving traffic flow, and upgrading intermodal connections.

Growth in the number of drivers and cars, an increase in the number of trips per household,

and increased freight movement are all contributing factors to growth in highway use over the

last 25 years.

In the mid-1970s, the IHS had been under construction for nearly two decades, and 37,000 of

its 42,500 miles were open to traffic. The advantages of the IHS were being felt across the

entire country, and travel was increasing. Since 1975, VMT on the nation’s roads has doubled

(figure 2-5). Figure 2-6 shows the change in VMT per capita for various states between 1975

and 1998.

Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT): 1975-98 (Annual totals)

Figure 2-5

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual issues). Billions of miles

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

1998
2-6

Under the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991, a National

Highway System (NHS) was designated in 1995 comprising the completed IHS, urban and

rural principal arterials, other strategic highways, and intermodal connectors. The NHS is

161,117 miles long—just 4 percent of the total highway miles—but carries 43 percent of the

total VMT [USDOT 1999b]. Because of its network of intermodal connectors, which tie all

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: 1975 and 1998).

Figure 2-6

Vehicle-Miles Traveled on Highways: 1975 and 1998

3,612 - 6,999

7,000 - 9,499

9,500 - 11,999

12,000 - 14,499

14,500 - 16,696 

VMT Per Capita

1975

1998
2-7

transportation modes together as one, the NHS serves as the backbone of our nation’s transportation system. ISTEA, and later the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA21), enacted in 1998, provided a record level of funding for highway programs. According to a

1999 Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) study, increases in funding have improved

Interstate pavement quality. In 1999, nearly 92 percent of the NHS pavement had acceptable

ride quality [USDOT 1999b]. The NHS also includes 130,000 bridges, and only 23 percent of

these were rated deficient—structurally deficient or functionally obsolete—in 1999. Of the

nearly 600,000 bridges on all roads nationwide, about 29 percent were found to be structurally or functionally deficient in 1999, an improvement over the 42 percent that were deficient

in 1990 (figure 2-7). FHWA data are confirmed by the American public. In a recent highway

user survey, satisfaction with pavement condition increased from 48 to 60 percent of adult

drivers “satisfied” between 1996 and 2000. Similarly, their satisfaction with bridge condition

increased from 58 to 77 percent “satisfied” during that same period.

Increased highway use led to growing congestion on our highway network, especially in and

around urban areas. The FHWA’s calculation of volume/capacity ratio, which compares

peak-hour traffic to the theoretical capacity of the highway, found that more than half of peakhour traffic in urban areas occurs under congested conditions, and the severity is increasing.

Delay on the NHS costs billions annually in lost wages and wasted fuel [USDOT 1999b].

Congestion also affects air quality.

Studies at the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) show that mobility in urban areas is getting

worse. Recent analyses show that the average increase in delay per driver for 68 urban areas

was 181 percent between 1982 and 1997 and 29 percent between 1992 and 1997 [USDOT

1999b]. Based on daily traffic volume per lane, travel in congested conditions has doubled

since 1982 (figures 2-8 and 2-9).

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics (Washington, DC:

Annual issues).

Percentage Deficient Bridges of Total Bridges: 1990-99

Figure 2-7 Percent

25

27

29

31

33

35

39

41

43

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

43
2-8

ISTEA/TEA-21

The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) created a surface transportation program with flexible funding that created new opportunities to address statewide and urban

transportation problems. ISTEA authorized $151 billion over six years for highways, mass transit,

and safety programs.

The Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21), signed into law on June 9, 1998, by

President Clinton, built and expanded on ISTEA policies and programs. TEA-21 guaranteed a

record $200 billion in surface transportation investment for highways, highway safety, transit, and

other surface transportation programs from FY 1998 through FY 2003. Contrary to earlier

predictions, TEA-21 continued all major ISTEA programs and added a number of new programs to

meet specific safety, economic, environmental, and community challenges. Other special programs

include:

the Transportation and Community and System Preservation Program,

the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA),

the Access to Jobs and Reverse Commute, and

the Rural Transportation Accessibility Program.

Although TEA-21 retains the basic structure established by ISTEA, it does include some important

changes. Two of the most significant achievements of TEA-21 are: 1) guaranteed funding; and

2) the continuation and expansion of the landmark environmental programs created by ISTEA.

TEA-21 also strengthens the planning requirements, expands the flexible funding provisions, and

places a stronger emphasis on safety. It includes some new programs, such as funding for border

crossing and trade corridor activities, to improve freight movements. It continues special provisions

for hiring women and minorities, the Disadvantaged Business Enterprise requirement, and labor

protections such as the Davis-Bacon prevailing wage guarantee.

Surface Transportation Financing

The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956, coupled with the Highway Revenue Act of the same year,

established the Highway Trust Fund, into which a 3 cents per gallon fuel tax was deposited (in

1959, this was increased to 4 cents per gallon). Thus, the mechanism for financing expanded

highway programs was created. The 1960s and 1970s saw no changes to this financing, but

many changes were made in the 1980s and 1990s:

The Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982 increased the motor fuels tax to 9 cents

per gallon and allocated a portion of that fuel tax equal to about a penny per gallon to mass

transit programs.

Another increase of 5 cents per gallon—increasing the federal fuel tax to 14 cents per

gallon—was enacted as part of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990. For the first

time in the history of the Highway Trust Fund, half of the revenues derived from this additional

5 cent fuel tax increase went to the general fund of the Treasury for deficit reduction. The

general fund portion of the tax was imposed on a temporary basis through September 30,

1995.

Another fuel tax increase of 4.3 cents per gallon was enacted effective October 1, 1993, with

the entire increase directed to the general fund of the Treasury for deficit reduction. In

addition, the 5 cents enacted in 1990 was extended and all directed to the Highway Trust

Fund. So, fuel taxes deposited in the Trust Fund totaled 14 cents per gallon, with 2 cents

dedicated to funding mass transit programs. Overall, taxes totaled 18.3 cents per gallon.

The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 redirected the 4.3 cents general fund tax to the Highway Trust

Fund, effective October 1, 1997. The Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21)

linked highway and transit spending directly to tax receipts. Of the 18.3 cents per gallon total,

2.86 cents is dedicated to funding mass transit programs.

Box 2-2

Box 2-1
2-9

Source: Texas Transportation Institute. The 1999

Annual Mobility Report:

Information for Urban

America (College Station,

Texas: 1999).

Figure 2-8

Congestion in 68 Urban Areas: 1982-97

20

0

40

60

80

100

1982 1990

Extreme

Severe

Heavy

Moderate

Uncongested

1997

Percent

Notes: An eligible driver is someone 16 years and older who is eligible for a driver’s license. The cities

shown represent the 50 largest metropolitan areas, as well as others chosen by the states sponsoring the

study. For a detailed explanation of the formulas used, see the source document.

Source: Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Roadway Congestion Annual Report (College Station,

TX: 1998).

Figure 2-9

Annual Person-Hours of Delay Per Eligible Driver: 1982 and 1997

Cities with population 

over 1 million

Cities with population

under 1 million

Tacoma

Spokane Salem

Eugene,

Springfield

Honolulu

Fresno

Bakersfield

Salt Lake City

Tucson El Paso

Albuquerque

Brownsville

Corpus Christi Laredo

Austin

Beaumont

Memphis

Nashville

Tampa

Jacksonville

Providence,

Pawtucket

Hartford,

Middletown

Albany,

Schenectady,

Troy

Rochester

Boulder

Colorado Springs

Omaha

Charlotte

Seattle, 

Everett

Portland

San Francisco

San Jose

Los Angeles San Diego

Phoenix

Sacramento

San Bernardino,

Riverside

Las Vegas Denver

Oklahoma City

Fort Worth Dallas

Houston

San Antonio

New Orleans

Atlanta

Orlando

Ft. Lauderdale,

Hollywood,

Pompano Beach

Miami,

Hialeah

Boston

New York

Philadelphia

Baltimore

Norfolk

Minneapolis,

St. Paul

Milwaukee

Chicago

Kansas City

Indianapolis St. Louis

Detroit

Cleveland

Cincinnati

Columbus

Pittsburgh

Washington, DC

Rochester

Annual PersonHours of Delay Per 

Eligible Driver

80 hr.

1982

1997

Louisville

40 hr.

20 hr.
2-10

Apart from increasing

lane miles of highway

(difficult to do in urban

areas where congestion

is most severe),

approaches to mini–

mizing congestion

include telecommuting

(box 2-3), work schedule

changes, and the use of

Intelligent Transpor–

tation Systems (ITS).

ITS uses electronic

information and

communication

technologies to augment

the capacity of existing

highway infrastructure.

Examples of such

systems include freeway

management, arterial

management, traffic signal control, electronic toll collection, transit management, and regional

multimodal traveler information. These systems are explained in detail in Chapter 6,

Technology.

Keys to the Future

Our highway system ranks as one of the top 20 engineering marvels of the 20th century

because of the freedom of mobility it provides to people [NAE 2000]. While significant

improvements have been made in the last quarter century to improve pavement and bridge

conditions and to improve the mobility of people and movement of goods, there is continued

need for emphasis on developing better road construction, repair, and maintenance

technologies.

Source: Joanne H. Pratt, Cost/Benefits of Teleworking to Manage Work/Life Responsibilities, report prepared for The International Telework Association & Council, Washington,

DC 1999; Thomas E. Miller, Recent Trends in Telework, 1990-1998, data available at

www.cyberdialog.com, as of July 2000.

New Technologies Drive Growth of Work at Home: 1990-99

Figure 2-10

1994 1995 1996

Millions U.S. adults

1990 1991 1992 1997 1998 1993 1999

20

15

10

5

0

Use PC at home

Go online from home

Employees who work at home

Telecommuting

Emerging technologies, including the computer, the Internet, and cellular telephones, are providing

opportunities to work anywhere, anytime. Telecommuting, as this phenomena is known, is changing the way people live and work, including how, when, and where they travel. In fact, transportation issues have played a key role in spurring the growth of telecommuting. Gasoline shortages in

the 1970s led to the recognition that working at home as a substitute for driving to work could

save gasoline. Federal legislative acts such as the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 spurred the

growth of telecommuting as a transportation demand strategy to reduce congestion and air

pollution (see figure 2-10).

The Clinton-Gore Administration strongly promoted telecommuting. The National Telecommuting

Initiative, endorsed by President Clinton’s Management Council in January 1996, has resulted in a

significant increase in the numbers of federal employees who telecommute.

Another Clinton-Gore initiative, the Commuter Choice Initiative, promotes a greater range of

employer-provided commuting options designed to reduce traffic congestion, improve air quality,

and allow employers to tailor transportation benefits to their individual employees’ needs. This

program has made it easier and more economical for people to get to work and has been shown to

increase employee satisfaction, improve employee retention rates, and make employers more

competitive.

Box 2-3
2-11

There also is a need to take further steps to ease congestion in urban areas. A variety of

strategies will be used to address capacity issues. If we remain visionary and vigilant and

make prudent investments, congestion levels in 2025 will be much lower than they are

today. Increasing the rate of deployment of ITS technologies will enhance capacity and help

enable the effective, real-time intermodal operation of the surface transportation system.

Vehicle-based technologies will facilitate high-density traffic flow. Continuous collection of

real-time data on the performance of the transportation system and on projected demand

will enable innovative strategies and services such as telecommuting, preferential treatment

for high occupancy vehicles, and value pricing of transportation infrastructure.

By the year 2025, we will have moved substantially beyond today’s modal perspective of

transportation to one that views transportation as a seamless integration of transportation

technologies, with the highway system as its backbone. A person-trip will be perceived as

being from door to door and movement of goods as being from factory to point of retail or

consumption, regardless of the number of modes used. Our highway system will be the

backbone. The highway system’s success in this role will result from a series of strategic

research programs spurred by the Transportation Research Board’s “Future Strategic

Highway Research Program,” which will yield more durable and efficient pavement and

bridge technologies requiring less construction/reconstruction time, and fewer and shorter

construction zone delays and traffic constrictions.

This holistic view of transportation and the implementation of ITS and construction technologies will yield a focus that centers on the efficient operation and management of a

mature highway network.

There are ongoing efforts to collect remote sensing data for traffic management, infrastructure management, hazards and disaster assessment, and environmental impact assessment.

By 2025, such data would be seamlessly integrated with data collected from ground-based

sensors as part of ITS to enhance region-wide traffic management, safety, and efficiency of

the entire transportation system.

Transit

The U.S. transit system includes a variety of multiple-occupancy vehicle services designed

to transport customers on local and regional routes. These services are operated by more

than 5,000 public transportation systems throughout the United States and include rail,

road, and water modes. Currently, the public transportation fleet comprises 129,000

vehicles in active service, of which 58 percent are buses, 26 percent are demand-responsive

vehicles, 8 percent are heavy rail cars, 4 percent are commuter rail cars, 1 percent are light

rail cars, and 3 percent are all other modes. In 1998, Americans made 8.7 billion passenger

trips on transit with 61 percent of the trips on buses, 27 percent on heavy rail, and 8 percent

on commuter and light rail.

Beginning in the 1960s, local public agencies were created to take over the transit operations

of financially distressed private transit operations. Federal funds were made available for

capital purchases in 1964. In the mid-1970s, the nation’s transit systems were hoping to

reverse years of ridership decline with a new program of operating assistance from the

federal government (National Mass Transportation Act, 1974). Public involvement stemmed

from the fact that transit systems provided mobility options for many people who were

unable to travel by automobile due, for example, to income, disability, or age. In many areas,

transit plays a role in strategies for mitigating congestion and air pollution. Some communities are also emphasizing transit as a means to reduce the negative effects of urban sprawl

and enhance the quality of life, a core strategy of the Clinton-Gore Administration’s Livable

Communities Initiative (see box 5-11 in Chapter 5).
2-12

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration, special tabulations, October 2000.

Figure 2-11

Urban Rail Systems in the United States: 1975 and 2000

Northern New Jersey

Pittsburgh

Boston

New York

Newark

Philadelphia

Baltimore

Washington, DC

Cleveland Chicago

San Francisco

New Orleans

1975

2000

Existing systems: 1975 and 2000

Heavy

Commuter

Light

Heavy

Commuter

Light

Under construction in 2000

Seattle

Portland

San Francisco

Sacramento

Salt Lake City

San Jose

Los Angeles

San Diego

Denver

Northern New Jersey

Pittsburgh

Boston

New York

Philadelphia

Baltimore

Washington, DC

Cleveland

Chicago

New Orleans

Buffalo

Newark

New Haven

Miami

St. Louis

Atlanta

Dallas
2-13

Between 1975 and today, two developments in U.S. urban transit service are notable. The first

is the increase in the number of cities served by rail transit. Much of the growth in rail transit

has been in new light rail systems (figure 2-11), including systems in Baltimore, Buffalo,

Denver, Long Beach (California), Portland (Oregon), Sacramento, San Diego, San Jose, and St.

Louis. In the late 1970s, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., added to their heavyrail systems, while Los Angeles began service on a new heavy-rail line in 1994. Miami and

New Haven (Connecticut) added commuter rail service during this period, while Los Angeles

and Washington, D.C., extended commuter rail services begun during the previous decade.

The second major development in the past quarter century is the expansion of bus transit

service to lower density suburbs as a response to continued decentralization of population

and employment within U.S. metropolitan areas. Suburban service extensions in many

metropolitan areas were facilitated by the creation of regional transit authorities, which

typically extended routes into previously unserved areas to secure a broader geographic base.

Many smaller urban areas also established new services, often in response to concerns about

automobile-related air pollution and energy consumption, or the mobility of transportationdisadvantaged groups. Today, there are more than 100 miles of transit lines under

construction—the most since Woodrow Wilson was President. Additionally, 42 new projects

are being designed and more than 100 being planned; demand for federal investment in

transit facilities greatly exceeds available and anticipated funds. Ten communities are

exploring the potential for bus rapid transit to achieve mobility, environmental, development,

and community livability goals at a lower capital cost than light rail transit.

Over a 10-year period, from 1988 to 1998, federal, state, and local investments in transit have

nearly doubled from $3.8 billion to $7.1 billion. State and local governments increased their

annual transit investments from $1.36 billion to $3 billion, while federal participation

increased from $2.5 billion to $4.1 billion. In addition to continuing record-level federal funds

for transit investments, the ISTEA of 1991 and TEA-21 provide state and local governments

with the flexibility to use specific highway funds to support transit investments. Over the

past eight years, state and local governments have taken advantage of this flexible funding

option, choosing to use a total of $4.9 billion of highway funds for transit.

Besides providing increasing levels of financial support for transit, communities are acting to

maximize the use of transit facilities by implementing a host of transit-oriented policies, such

as zoning ordinances that encourage transit-oriented, mixed-use developments, joint

developments that generate revenues and riders, policies that enable employers to support a

variety commuter options, and fare policies that target specific travel markets for transit.

Communities are also seeking to maximize the productivity of their transit operations through

the use of ITS , such as automatic vehicle locator (AVL) systems and “smart” fare cards.

Partly as a result of these developments, the level of urban transit service provided nationwide

has continued to grow into the 1990s. Ridership in 1999 reached about 9 billion trips

(figure 2-12), the highest since the 1964 level of 10.4 billion.

Keys to the Future

Transit ridership has increased dramatically since the mid-1990s, and this trend is expected

to continue over the next 25 years. The continuing trend toward lower densities and decentralization of economic activities presents difficulties for traditional transit services, which

rely on ridership in densely populated areas. Equipment, services, and supporting policies

must be designed to attract new ridership, and some are already in use. Newly developed

technologies include signal pre-emption systems that in some settings have reduced onboard

travel time by more than 30 percent. Advanced communications and use of global positioning

systems (GPS) (see chapter 6) are reducing waiting times for transit users. These and similar

technologies will make transit much more convenient in the future. Advances in bus design
2-14

and construction, for example, will significantly improve bus safety, reduce operating noise,

and increase efficiency. By 2025, the range of battery-powered electric vehicles, with back-up

solar interchange systems, will exceed the 500-mile travel mark. Buses, charged overnight,

will be ready to travel long distances.

Transit will remain a vital part of the total transportation picture by combining its best

characteristics seamlessly with those of other modes. Indeed, transit ridership has been

increasing and we expect that trend to continue. We must continue to invent innovative

transportation routes, start new services, invent more responsive public and community

transit, and create efficient, cost-effective programs.

That TEA-21 authorizes over 190 major transit projects is a recognition that communities

throughout the United States view transit as a significant strategic element in their efforts to

mitigate traffic congestion, improve air quality, reduce energy consumption, provide access to

jobs, stimulate and sustain economic development, and strengthen community life. During

the next 25 years, transit will become a competitive mode in regional multimodal transportation systems. Large urban areas will expand, and medium-sized urban areas will develop

fixed guideway transit systems including commuter rail, light rail, and bus rapid transit.

These systems will provide high-quality transit services that are designed to compete effectively with the automobile in a variety of travel markets. An extensive network of local and

feeder bus services will support the fixed guideway transit services that, in turn, will provide

“seamless” connections to the national transportation network at airports and intercity rail

and bus depots. Transit providers will meet the growing need of an aging population for

demand responsive transit with increasingly efficient and responsive paratransit services.

ITS, such as AVL, will enable transit providers to respond in “real time” and to coordinate the

extensive number of paratransit services provided in their communities.

Over the next 25 years, transit will continue to influence how urban planning and growth

should occur. Coordinated transportation and land-use policies have impacted the shape of

development. An interconnected network of high-speed intercity rail and magnetic levitation

systems, and local commuter, rapid, and light-rail systems can form the backbone for a new

pattern of development. These systems would serve to link livable rural, suburban, and urban

communities. At each node, relatively dense clusters of housing and employments sites,

connected with well laid out pedestrian linkages, would become the new standard of development. Such a pattern would provide increased choices and produce more efficient use of land

and other resources.

By 2025, this approach to development will work because it will benefit the economy, the

environment, social equity, and personal quality of life, all at the same time. Access to a broad

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration, special tabulations, October 2000.

Transit Ridership: 1975-99 (Annual totals)

Figure 2-12

1975 1980 1985

Millions

1990 1995 1999

9,500

9,000

8,500

8,000

7,500

7,000
2-15

mix of housing types, jobs, commercial areas, parks, and civic uses is within a short distance

of transit stops. Services such as health care, education, and job training are readily available

near transit. Street layout and building design maximize the ease of use and pleasure of

movement for pedestrians, bicyclists, and persons with disabilities. Transit serves new

communities in new centers, in-fill development, and redevelopment along transit corridors

within existing neighborhoods. The new transit-oriented development expands transportation choices and broadens the range of housing types and costs for all Americans. Recent

evidence suggests that areas that adopt policies designed to enhance transit access produce

significant savings in automobile user costs.

By 2025, our nation’s transit system will continue to meet and surpass communities’ mobility

needs as transit ridership doubles from its current level. As a nation, we would have fully

embraced the fact that mobility options beyond the automobile enhance our collective quality

of living and keep us competitive in the world economy.

Passenger Railroads

The Rail Passenger Service Act of 1970 established The National Railroad Passenger Corporation (popularly known as Amtrak) on May 1, 1971, following nearly a century and a half of

intercity passenger operations by private freight railroads. At least since the end of World War

II, the economic viability of rail passenger service had been declining. The advent of relatively

inexpensive air travel in long-distance markets and the widespread availability of the private

automobile for shorter trips generated new travel patterns and drew passengers away from

the railroads. Other contributing factors included increasing costs and a declining share of

mail traffic.

Since its founding, Amtrak rebuilt rail equipment and benefited from significant public

investment in track and stations, particularly in the Northeast Corridor. Even more important

has been a shift in prevailing attitudes, both in the nation and within Amtrak itself. The 1977

Trends and Choices report [USDOT] termed Amtrak as experimental, but after nearly 30 years,

Amtrak is now a critical fixture in America’s infrastructure. Figure 2-13 shows the frequency

of service on various Amtrak routes in 1999; Amtrak ridership from 1975 to 1999 is shown in

figure 2-14.

In 1997, President Clinton signed into law the Amtrak Reform and Accountability Act, which

authorized a record $2.3 billion in payments for capital improvements to the rail system. This

was the first Amtrak Reauthorization Act, made possible by timely intervention of the administration to prevent a systemwide Amtrak strike. The Act establishes the principle that Federal

funds should go only toward capital subsidies to Amtrak, while operating costs should be

paid from corporate revenues. Under this principle, operating subsidies will be phased out by

2003. The Act also expanded Amtrak management’s flexibility, including the ability to

contract out all types of work subject to labor-management negotiations; reorganized the

Amtrak Board; and set up an independent commission (the Amtrak Reform Council) to

monitor progress.

Following passage of the Act, the new Amtrak Board developed a strategy that emphasized

high-speed rail corridor development (see Chapter 6 for a detailed discussion on high-speed

rail systems), network expansion, customer service, and new profit centers. With the new

strategy, Amtrak will:

restructure service in the Northeast Corridor, with the new high-speed Acela Express

trainsets and the recent completion of electrification from New Haven to Boston;

proceed aggressively in conjunction with states outside the northeast on high-speed rail

corridor development in the Pacific Northwest, California, the Midwestern Chicago Hub,
2-16

the Gulf Coast Corridor, New York’s Empire Corridor, Pennsylvania’s Keystone Corridor,

and the Southeast Corridor linking the Northeast Corridor with the South Atlantic states;

re-emphasize customer service by offering service guarantees (reimbursement coupons good

for future travel) that are unprecedented in the American passenger transportation

industry; and

extend its franchise to other businesses, such as mail delivery, that traditionally formed

part of its predecessor railroads’ passenger operations.

Source: National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak), Annual Report (Washington, DC: Various years).

Figure 2-14

Amtrak Ridership: 1975-99 (Annual totals) Millions of riders

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

23

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation,

Federal Railroad

Administration, Office

of Railroad Development, special tabulations, October 2000.

Figure 2-13

Amtrak Passenger Rail System: 2000

Minimum six times daily

Minimum three times daily

At least daily

Less than daily

Level of Train Service
2-17

Keys to the Future

Amtrak will face the challenge of operating quality high-speed and conventional rail systems

while generating a positive operating cash flow to help support its continuing investment

requirements. Amtrak may extend service to regions now unserved by passenger trains and

add additional daily trains to established long-distance routes. The most significant challenge for Amtrak is eliminating its dependence on federal operating subsidies while maintaining and increasing its ability to serve the nation’s passenger transportation needs.

Corridors in many regions of the United States may provide high-speed rail (HSR) service by

2025 if state and Amtrak interest continues to grow and build on success of high-speed

corridors (see Chapter 6 discussion on high-speed ground transportation). By 2025, nextgeneration high-speed rail technologies could mature to support reliable, cost-effective

systems with superb quality, including nonelectrified corridors operating at top speeds

ranging from125 to150 mph, positive train control in place nationwide to improve productivity and safety, elimination of virtually all grade crossings on routes with significant traffic,

and infrastructure that delivers excellent ride quality at low cost.

The public would also benefit by reductions in airport and highway congestion and air

pollution through increased use of passenger rail. HSR would provide expanded transportation options to a growing ridership by connecting to commuter rail and urban transportation

systems. Analogous benefits could accrue on other, less heavily traveled Amtrak routes with

upgraded conventional service quality, new equipment, and enhanced reliability.

In the Northeast Corridor, high-speed rail could generate 3.5 billion passenger-miles annually

by 2025, more than double the 1.7 billion in 2000. Corridors designated thus far could bring

high-speed rail service to almost 75 percent of the nation’s metropolitan population — over

150 million people.

Aviation

Air travel is the fastest growing mode of transportation, becoming ever more popular and

frequent. The growing pervasiveness of air travel can be seen by the increasing numbers of

people that have flown on a commercial jet: less than 50 percent in 1975 compared with more

than 80 percent today [ATA 1998]. After a lull in the 1980s, private sector aviation is also

becoming more popular. And, on the freight side, air cargo is a rapidly growing segment of

the air transportation market.

In the last quarter-century, the aviation industry has undergone dramatic growth (see

figure 2-15 for enplanement growth in major markets). It has experienced consolidation,

while at the same time, new-entrant, low-fare competitors have emerged. Older, established

airlines, such as Eastern, National, and Pan American, have disappeared, while an expanding former intrastate carrier (Southwest) has become the model for many new airlines.

Globalization of our economy, the development of hub-and-spoke systems, and the emergence

of low-fare carriers have also contributed to an increasing number of flights.

Passenger traffic has nearly tripled since 1975 (figure 2-16) and is expected to reach one

billion enplanements within the next decade [USDOT FAA 2000a]. Air cargo (freight, express,

and mail) grew much faster than the passenger sector, increasing nearly fivefold from 5 billion

revenue ton-miles (RTMs) in 1975 to 25 billion in 1999 (figure 2-17). During this period,

airline employment more than doubled from 297,000 employees to 728,000 employees, and

labor productivity increased. The ratio of enplaned passengers per employee rose by

25 percent, and the ratio of RTMs per employee rose by 89 percent over this period. This

remarkable increase in output per employee arises, in part, from the use of larger and faster

aircraft, changes in flight personnel requirements, changes in work rules and practices, and

adoption of various marketing strategies.
2-18

Air Traffic Performance-Based Organization

On December 7, 2000, President Clinton issued an executive order to establish an Air Traffic

Organization (ATO) within the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The purpose of this order is

to enhance the FAA’s mission to ensure safety, security, and efficiency of the nation’s air

transportation system. Establishment of the ATO will further improve the delivery of air traffic

services to the American public.

A Chief Operating Officer (COO) and a five member Board of Directors, drawn from business

and labor leaders to help oversee the COO and the air traffic budget, will administer the new

organization.

Specifically, the ATO will:

(a) optimize use of existing management flexibilities and authorities to improve the

efficiency of air traffic services and increase the capacity of the system;

(b) develop methods to accelerate air traffic control modernization and to improve

aviation safety related to air traffic control;

(c) develop agreements with the Administrator of the FAA and users of the products,

services, and capabilities it will provide;

(d) operate in accordance with safety performance standards developed by the FAA

and rapidly respond to FAA safety and security oversight findings;

(e) consult with its customers, the traveling public, including direct users such as

airlines, cargo carriers, manufacturers, airports, general aviation, and commercial

space transportation providers, and focus on producing results that satisfy the FAA’s

external customer needs;

(f) consult with appropriate federal, state, and local public agencies, including the

Department of Defense and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, to

determine the best practices for meeting the diverse needs throughout the National

Airspace System;

(g) establish strong incentives to managers for achieving results; and

(h) formulate and recommend to the Administrator any management, fiscal, or

legislative changes necessary for the organization to achieve its performance goals.

The establishment of the semiautonomous ATO will go a long way toward improving our ability to

cope with increasing congestion in the skies. It will allow more efficient management of the air

traffic services and accelerate the reform of our air traffic system. Additionally, if we reform the

way air traffic control service is financed, from a system financed by passenger taxes to one in

which commercial users pay the costs of the services they use, we can ensure that air travel in the

21st century is the safest, most cost-effective, and most efficient in the world.

Box 2-4
2-19

Caption

Figure 2-

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of

Airline Information (Washington, DC: Various years).

Domestic Enplanements on U.S. Commercial Air Carriers: 1975-99

Figure 2-16

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1980 1990

Millions

1975 1985 1995 1999

Note: These data include those hubs that were classified as large hubs in either 1975 or 1998 or in both

years. A large hub is a geographic area that enplanes 1 percent or more of national enplaned passengers.

A hub may include more than one airport.

Figure 2-15

Enplanements in Major Markets: 1975 and 1998

Seattle

Portland

San Francisco

San Diego Phoenix

Los Angeles

Las Vegas

Salt Lake City

Dallas-Ft. Worth

Houston

New Orleans

Tampa

Honolulu

Minneapolis-St. Paul

Denver Kansas City

Chicago

Detroit

St. Louis

Cleveland

Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

New York

Boston

Newark

Philadelphia

Baltimore

Washington, DC

Atlanta

Charlotte

Orlando

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale

Enplanements

1975

1998

30 million

15

7.5

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of Airline

Information, 1976; and Airport Activity Statistics of Certificated Air Carriers, Summary Tables 1999

(Washington, DC: 1999).

The increases in passenger and cargo traffic, however, have come with an associated price.

More traffic has increased congestion in the aviation system, especially at the hubs. A study

by the USDOT Inspector General’s Office [USDOT OIG 2000] shows that delays are growing

nationwide. The study tracked 2,036 domestic routes and found that gate-to-gate times had

increased on 77 percent of them between 1988 and 1998.
2-20

Box 2-5

Through collaborative leadership, the FAA is working with the aviation industry to address

aviation congestion issues. In March 2000, USDOT initiated a collaborative spring/summer

effort in cooperation with the airlines industry to reduce delays due to severe weather

conditions. In August 2000, Secretary Slater convened, for the first time, airline industry

stakeholders to discuss the current challenges facing the industry and promote innovative

strategies to reduce congestion at the nation’s airports. As a result of this meeting, three task

forces were set up to: address airlines service quality performance, identify “best practices” in

improving the accuracy and timeliness of flight information provided to air travelers, and

expedite the investment in infrastructure. Similar collaborative efforts are continuing at the

USDOT to reduce congestion and the resulting delays and to provide a better experience to the

air travelers.

AIR-21

The Aviation Investment and Reform Act for the 21st Century (AIR-21) was enacted by Congress

and signed by the President in the spring of 2000. The act substantially increases funds for airport

development both through the Airport Improvement Program and by enabling an increase in the

Passenger Facility Charge. AIR-21 provides needed airport infrastructure grants that can result in

competitive access for new entrant carriers across the nation. The Act also funds the continued

redevelopment of the air traffic control infrastructure, providing the most significant changes in

technology and procedures in 50 years.

Air-21 continues implementing the goal of modernizing and stabilizing FAA’s critical air traffic

services for the nation. It shifts FAA’s air traffic management from a centralized command and

control hierarchy to a more demand responsive and collaborative model managed by the

expanded Aviation Management Advisory Council.

AIR-21 also contains increased authorizations to provide for USDOT enforcement of consumer

protection, such as those prohibiting deceptive advertising and those providing denied-boarding

protection.

Source: Public Law 106-181 (Apr. 5, 2000), Aviation Investment and Reform Act for the 21st Century (AIR-21), 2000.

Information available at www.nw.faa.gov/airports/preservations/FieldAIR=21/index.htm/ as of Aug. 23, 2000.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of

Airline Information (Washington, DC: Various years).

U.S. Domestic and International Freight Revenue Ton-Miles: 1975-99

Figure 2-17

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Billions

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

U.S. domestic

International
2-21

Large Commercial Air Carriers: To accommodate growth in domestic demand, commercial

air carriers have expanded capacity. From 1975 through 1999, the number of large passenger

jet aircraft in the U.S. fleet more than doubled, increasing from 2,135 in 1975 to 4,312 in 1999

(figure 2-18). Domestic available seat miles increased from 244 billion to 677 billion, up more

than 177 percent.

As passenger miles increased during the last two decades, the average domestic load factor

increased from 53 percent in 1975 to almost 70 percent in 1999 (figure 2-19). Air carriers also

improved their operating profits by better managing full-fare and discounted seats. Due to

increased load factors, airlines restructured and reduced unit costs, increasing efficiency and

productivity.

U.S. domestic Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM) grew from 129 billion in 1975 to 473 billion in

1999—an average increase of 5.6 percent per year. From 1975 through 1999, commercial air

carrier domestic fares, adjusted for inflation, declined 38.6 percent [USDOT BTS OAI n.d.(a)].

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of

Airline Information (Washington, DC: Various years).

Large Passenger Jet Aircraft in the U.S. Fleet: 1975-99

Figure 2-18

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Aircraft

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of Airline Information

(Washington, DC: Various years).

Domestic Load Factor for Large Commercial Air Carriers: 1975-99

Figure 2-19

1975 1980 1985

Percent

1990 1995 1999

75

70

65

60

55

50
2-22

Box 2-7

Box 2-6

Higher Profits for U.S. Airlines

During the 20 years since deregulation, U.S. air carriers have earned more than $38 billion in

operating profits and more than $6.5 billion in net profit. The years 1994 to 1998 were the most

prosperous, with more than $30.9 billion in operating profits and $14.6 billion in net profits.

From 1979 through 1983— the first five years of deregulation— the U.S. air carrier industry

incurred operating losses of more than $1 billion. Losses resulted from operating in an increasingly unregulated market, petroleum price increases in 1979 and 1980, and the economic

recessions of 1980 and 1982.

From 1984 through 1988, losses in the air-carrier industry began to reverse. During this time,

operating profits were more than $10.3 billion, and net profits were more than $3.2 billion.

Profits came from a stronger U.S. economy and slower growth in operating expenses. Slower

growth in operating expense, in turn, resulted from increasing productivity, wage concessions from

airline employees, and declining fuel costs.

The industry experienced difficult times again during the 1989 to 1993 period, when operating

losses exceeded $2.1 billion, and net losses were almost $10.5 billion. In part, problems stemmed

from uncertainties generated by the Gulf War and the threat of terrorism. Other reasons included

a downturn in both U.S. and world economies, as well as rising jet fuel prices. In 1993, President

Clinton signed legislation creating the National Commission to Ensure a Strong, Competitive Airline

Industry to study problems facing the aviation industry. Former Virginia Governor Gerald L. Baliles

chaired the commission, whose recommendations stimulated the return of the commercial aviation

industry to profitability in 1994 and subsequent strong growth. The strong growth resulted from

several factors, including a growing U.S. economy, an increase in worldwide traffic demand,

declining fuel prices, and high load factors.

The historically high load factors being experienced by the industry today (70 percent domestic

market and 74 percent international market) are attributed to the use of a wide variety of yield

management strategies. Today’s technology allows carriers to maintain large databases that

include information on flights, bookings, and the impacts of seat-selling discounts. This information

allows airlines to predict demand and manage capacity. Yield management systems are largely

responsible for U.S. carriers increasing load factors by almost 17 percentage points system-wide

since 1975 [USDOT BTS OAI n.d.(b)].

Airlines are changing their marketing strategies to take advantage of new opportunities offered by

selling tickets via the Internet, because this allows them to cut costs and deal directly with travelers.

The major air carriers encourage this method of distributing tickets by offering frequent flier

mileage bonuses and discount fares for purchasing tickets over the Internet.

Air System Financing

Airport and Airway Trust Fund dollars have accounted for approximately 64 percent of all FAA

funding since the Trust Fund’s creation in 1970. The Trust Fund percentage of the total has been

increasing, from 40 percent in the 1970s to 54 percent in the 1980s and 71 percent in the

1990s. There were frequent statutory changes from the 1970s through the 1990s that redefined

the eligible uses of aviation trust fund monies, particularly the mix of operations versus capital

spending from the trust fund.

Regionals/Commuters: The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 created major opportunities for

the group of airlines originally called “commuter” airlines and now called “regional”

airlines. In 1975, the industry was operating on the fringes of the service areas of the large

commercial air carriers. The typical commuter airline was a fixed-base operator that provided
2-23

scheduled air service to small communities using small aircraft that seated fewer than 30

passengers.

Between 1975 and 1985, regional/commuter enplanements more than tripled, increasing from

7 million to 25 million; revenue passenger miles increased almost five-fold, from 760 million to

almost 3.8 billion [USDOT BTS OAI n.d.(c)]. The regional/commuter airlines became

increasingly important sources for connecting traffic to major carriers. These connections led

to the next significant trend to evolve from deregulation—the development of “code-sharing

agreements” between the major and regional air carriers (see Chapter 4, box 4-3).

In 1986, large air carriers began purchasing their regional partners, and as of 1999, the major

airlines owned 15 regionals, totally, or in part. The close relationship between the regionals

and the large air carriers continues to shape the industry today. In 1999, the regional/

commuter airline industry enplaned 72 million passengers, the result of a 10.1 percent

average annual increase since 1975 (figure 2-20). Revenue passenger miles totaled 18.8 billion

in 1999, representing an average annual increase of 14.3 percent [USDOT BTS OAI n.d.(c)].

The evolution within the regional/commuter industry is also underscored by changes in the

range of markets served and in the fleet composition. As passenger traffic continued to grow,

larger regional aircraft with greater range were introduced into the regional fleets.

These new aircraft, designed to meet the mission and market demand of the regional industry,

are probably the most visible sign of changes within the industry and reflect its growth and

reach. During the 1980s and early 1990s, larger turboprop aircraft were prevalent. From the

mid-1990s to today, new regional jets, first introduced in 1993, became common. Figure

2-21 shows the growth of the regional/commuter aircraft fleet. Between 1975 and 1999, the

industry’s average passenger trip length increased from 105 to 260 miles (figure 2-22). In the

future, new regional jets will help shape and support regional/commuter airline growth.

The regional airline industry has become an integral part of today’s national air transpor–

tation system. However, this growth has led to increased consolidation. The number of

airlines has declined significantly, while the average size of the carriers has increased

dramatically. In 1975, there were 170 reporting carriers, which grew to a high of 245 in 1980.

Since then, the number of regional/commuter airlines has declined steadily to only 93 carriers

in 1999. In 1975, the 170 regional carriers averaged just over 42,300 enplanements per carrier,

but in 1999, the 93 carriers averaged more than 778,000 passenger enplanements per carrier.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of

Airline Information (Washington, DC: Various years).

Regional/Commuter Airline Revenue Enplanements: 1975-99

Figure 2-20 Millions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999
2-24

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of

Airline Information (Washington, DC: Various years).

Regional/Commuter Passenger Aircraft Fleet: 1975-99

Figure 2-21

0

500

Aircraft

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Turboprop

Regional jet

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working

Paper on Aerospace Capacity and Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).

Average Trip Length on Regional/Commuter Carriers: 1975-99

Figure 2-22 Miles

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Today’s regional airlines are more aptly characterized as large, professionally managed

businesses, operating state-of-the-art aircraft and poised for continued growth [USDOT BTS

OAI n.d.(c)].

Air Cargo: The demand for air cargo transportation has grown as economic activity has

increased. Growth in air cargo activity has historically been strongly related to growth in the

Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By providing faster ways for businesses to deliver high-value

goods to customers, air cargo transportation has become a major factor in economic growth.

Air cargo has grown even faster than airline passenger traffic. The 6.1 percent annual growth

in domestic freight RTMs from 1975 to 1999 was greater than the percent growth in RPMs

(figure 2-17). Industry growth was primarily attributable to the growth of all-cargo carriers,

which accounted for more than two-thirds of domestic freight RTMs in 1999 [USDOT BTS OAI

n.d.(b)]. Federal Express and United Parcel Service are the two largest domestic all-cargo

carriers. Both of these carriers are integrated carriers providing door-to-door service using

intermodal systems.
2-25

Freight also is moved in the cargo-holds of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo

aircraft. To meet the increased demand for air-freight traffic, the fleet of dedicated all-cargo jet

aircraft increased from 70 aircraft in 1975 to 1,013 aircraft in 1999 (figure 2-23). The most

significant change in the fleet during the 1980s was the extensive use of Boeing 727 freighters

due to the rapid growth of integrated express carriers.

General Aviation: General

aviation—the use of

business and corporate

aircraft, personal aircraft,

and air taxis—is in a period

of strong growth, with more

planes flying, more new

aircraft being delivered, and

more pilots earning their

licenses. Even greater

increases are projected for

the next quarter century

[USDOT FAA OAPP 2000].

After a decline in the early

1990s, general aviation

activity increased 4.3 percent per year between 1996

and 1999 [USDOT FAA

2000b]. The turnaround in

general aviation is attributed to the U.S. economic expansion during the Clinton-Gore

administration, in 1993, President Clinton’s first trip to Everett, Washington, focused on

bringing the aviation leaders together to foster growth in the industry after a serious

downturn in prior year profits. The General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA)

estimates that more than 7,000 U.S. companies operate business aircraft. Favorable economic

conditions have improved the market demand for business jets, especially for larger aircraft

with ranges of more than 6,000 miles. In addition, fractional ownership, aircraft shared

among several individuals or businesses, has contributed to the demand for business jets

[GAMA 2000].

Fixed-wing piston aircraft continue to dominate general aviation, currently accounting for

more than 79 percent of the active fleet. Currently, the size of the fixed-wing piston fleet is

similar to that of 1975, but the industry is rebounding from a decline in the early 1990s

(figure 2-24). The size of the fixed-wing turbine fleet has more than tripled since 1975, totaling

12,700 in 1999 (figure 2-25).

GAMA has estimated that more than 25,000 manufacturing jobs have been created in the

general aviation industry as a result of GARA. GARA limits the number of years for which

manufacturers are liable for general aviation aircraft. The general aviation industry had been

in a dramatic decline in the 1980s—U.S. companies sold more than 17,000 piston aircraft in

1979 and had dropped to less than 700 in 1999—citing the costs of liability insurance for

older aircraft as a major cause in this decline. GAMA also reports increases in general

aviation exports, new general aviation products due to increases in research and development

by its members, and an increase in the number of student pilots [GAMA 1999].

Commercial Space Transportation: Commercial space transportation did not exist in 1975.

However, since the mid-1990s, commercial space-launch activities have grown as U.S. com–

mercial companies responded to the increased global demand for commercial satellite-launch

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working Paper

on Aerospace Capacity and Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).

U.S. All-Cargo Fleet: 1975-99

Figure 2-23

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1975

Aircraft

1980 1985 1990 1995 1999
2-26

services. The first

U.S. commercial

launch took place in

1989. In 1999, there

were 17 FAA-licensed

commercial space

launches, for a total

of 130 launches

through July 2000; of

these, 115 have been

successful [Smith

2000].

The growth in the

commercial satellitelaunch industry was

prompted by the

destruction of the

space shuttle

Challenger and the subsequent decision to prohibit

commercial payloads on the shuttles. This left the

United States with severely limited launch capability.

Other nations entered this business, setting the stage for

the highly competitive and growing world market in

space launch. The United States went from zero

commercial launch capability in 1988 to $1 billion in

launch revenues in 1998. In 1998, U.S.-based launch

providers achieved a 47 percent share of the

international commercial launch market (figure 2-26).

Before 1990, most responsibilities for the U.S. spacelaunch bases and ranges belonged to the government,

particularly the Air Force. Today, commercial launch

operators and spaceports are responsible for operating

and maintaining the satellite and launch vehicle

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working

Paper on Aerospace Capacity and

Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).

Fixed-Wing Turbine Aircraft: 1975-99

Figure 2-25

1975

Thousands

1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Source: U.S.

Department of

Transportation,

Federal Aviation Administration, Commerical Space Transportation:

1998 Year in Review

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Commercial Satellite Launches by

Country: 1998 (Percent of market

share in 1998)

Figure 2-26

United States

47%

Ukraine

3%

China

11%

Europe

25%

Russia

14%

Fixed-Wing Piston Aircraft: 1975-99

Figure 2-24

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

50

0

100

150

200

250

Thousands

Source: U.S. Department

of Transportation, Bureau

of Transportation

Statisticas, Office of

Airline Information

(Washington, DC:

Various years).
2-27

facilities and launch complexes that they lease or license from the Air Force. The FAA has

issued a space-launch site operator’s license for commercial spaceports at Vandenberg Air

Force Base, California; Spaceport Florida at Cape Canaveral Air Station, Florida; the Virginia

Space Flight Center at Wallops Island, Virginia; and Spaceport Alaska at Kodiak Island,

Alaska. The FAA has also licensed launches from the Sea Launch venture, which had its first

successful launch in 1999 from a sea-based platform near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

These spaceports focus on small to medium rockets used primarily to launch low Earth orbit

(LEO) communications satellites. LEO satellites orbit at altitudes ranging from 100 to

22,300 miles—the distance required for geostationary orbit. Demand for this type of launch is

increasing, and a number of firms are competing to establish constellations of LEO satellites

providing global mobile communications systems. All of the numerous proposed LEO

systems use varying numbers of evenly spaced satellites circling the globe, so that one is

always within reach of Earth-bound communications devices. They essentially allow anyone,

anywhere on Earth, to communicate with anyone anywhere else, using a special handheld

telephone (Big LEO) or other, nonvoice communications device, such as a pager or

alphanumeric messaging receiver (Little LEO).

Keys to the Future

FAA estimates show that commercial airlines will continue to benefit from moderate to strong

economic growth. The forecasts also expect a combination of technological improvements

and continued cost containment efforts to benefit the overall financial performance of both

U.S. and foreign flag carriers.

In addition, the operation of a fleet consisting entirely of Stage 3 aircraft (aircraft with reduced

noise level), which are more fuel-efficient, will result in further cost savings and increased

industry productivity. These productivity improvements should strengthen overall industry

financial performance, reduce air-carrier marginal costs, and benefit the traveling public with

lower airline fares. Further, we are working with our international partners to develop a Stage

4 aircraft and schedule it for future deployment.

Domestic enplanements are

predicted to increase

3.4 percent per year from

2000 to 2025 (figure 2-27).

To accommodate the

growth in traffic over this

period, the large air carrier

jet passenger fleet is

expected to increase

3.6 percent per year,

expanding from 4,355

aircraft in 2000 to an

estimated 9,941 aircraft in

2025 (figure 2-28). With

congestion already

apparent at airports and in

the skies, capacity issues

must be addressed to

accommodate future

growth. Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working Paper

on Aerospace Capacity and Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).

Domestic Enplanements on U.S. Commercial Air Carriers:

Projected – 2000-25

Figure 2-27

2000

Millions

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600
2-28

 The FAA, in cooperation

with NASA, is carrying

out research and

development to modernize

the National Air Space

(NAS) system and

improve its safety, security,

efficiency, and

environmental

compatibility. Together,

they have set a vision and

identified goals to be

achieved by 2025 (see box

1-4). Daniel S. Goldin,

NASA administrator,

foresees a future in which

new technological

developments will allow

our aviation system to

meet growth in air travel

by 2025 (see box 6-13).

Over the next 25 years,

the regional/commuter

airline industry is

expected to continue

outpacing the growth of

large commercial air

carriers. By 2025, the

regional airline industry

is estimated to enplane

more than 244 million

passengers annually, at

a 4.7 percent average

annual growth rate

(figure 2-29). By 2025,

the regional/commuter

industry’s share of total

domestic enplanements

is predicted to be well

over 15 percent,

compared to

11.2 percent in 1999.

More than any other factor, the change in the regional aircraft fleet will define the industry’s

future. While deregulation was the driving force behind the industry’s growth from 1978

through the mid-1990s, the popularity and recent rapid introduction of regional jets and the

market applications they dictate will shape the industry’s future trends.

During the next 25 years, the regional/commuter fleet is expected to increase from 2,237

aircraft in 1999 to 3,870 in 2025, an increase of 73 percent (figure 2-30). More significantly,

regional jets are expected to become the mainstays of the fleet midway through this 25-year

period. By 2025, regional jets may account for nearly 65 percent of the fleet, compared to only

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working Paper

on Aerospace Capacity and Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers’ Passenger Jet Aircraft:

Projected – 2000-25

Figure 2-28

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Aircraft

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working

Paper on Aerospace Capacity and Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).

Regional/Commuter Air Carrier Enplanements:

Projected – 2000-25

Figure 2-29

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Millions
2-29

15 percent in 1999. The number of turboprops may actually decline by an estimated

28 percent. The projected large growth in the number of regional jets raises questions about

the ability of the air traffic system to handle the demand placed on it. The expected decline in

the number of small turboprops may also mean that some small communities will lose all

scheduled air service.

Air cargo growth is expected to mirror trends in economic growth. The ever-increasing trend

toward globalization could stimulate demand for both domestic and international markets.

Domestic air cargo RTMs are

forecasted to increase nearly

four times between 1999 and

2025, with an annual

increase of more than

5 percent to reach 43.7

billion RTMs in 2025

(figure 2-31). The all-cargo

carriers are expected to

accommodate nearly all of

the additional growth. To

accommodate the demand

for air cargo growth, the fleet

of all-cargo jet aircraft is

forecasted to more than

double between 1999 and

2025. The fleet is projected

to increase from

1,046 aircraft in 2000 to

2,646 aircraft in 2025, an

annual increase of 3.8 percent. An increasing percentage of the future cargo fleet will be

composed of passenger aircraft conversions.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working

Paper on Aerospace Capacity and Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).

Figure 2-30

Regional/Commuter Commercial Passenger Aircraft Fleet:

Projected – 2000-25

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Aircraft

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Turboprop

Regional Jet

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working

Paper on Aerospace Capacity and Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).

U.S. Domestic Air Freight Revenue Ton Miles:

Projected – 2000-25

Figure 2-31

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Billions
2-30

In 1999, narrow-body aircraft and wide-body aircraft accounted for 67.7 and 32.3 percent of

the all-cargo jet fleet, respectively. The number of wide-body aircraft is forecasted to grow

much faster than that of narrow-body aircraft and account for more than half the fleet by 2011.

A key issue will be the capacity of existing infrastructure to handle the increasing air cargo

movement efficiently.

The general aviation fleet is expected to continue its growth over the next 25 years. The largest

absolute increase is projected to be in the number of active fixed-wing piston aircraft—

increasing from 165.2 thousand to 190.7 thousand.

The fixed-wing turbine aircraft fleet is expected to almost double over the next 25 years,

reaching 24,900 in 2025. Rotocraft are forecast to increase by more than 36 percent over the

same period, from about 7,700 in the year 2000 to approximately 10,500 in 2025. Increases in

the numbers of experimental aircraft and other aircraft (gliders, lighter-than-air, balloons) are

also expected.

The FAA and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) project

an annual average of 51 commercial space launches worldwide through 2010, a 40 percent

increase from the 36 commercial launches conducted worldwide in 1999 (figure 2-32). It is

forecasted that, on average, the following type and number of launches will occur each year

through 2010: 40 launches of medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (25 to geosynchronous orbit

and 15 to LEO) and 11 launches of small launch vehicles to LEO.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working Paper on Aerospace Capacity and

Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).

Commercial Launches by Country: 1982-2010

Figure 2-32 Launches

0

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Projected

2006 2008 2010

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 USA (by U.S. government)

USA (by industry)

Europe

China

Russia

Ukraine

Projected launches
2-31

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Water Resources Support Center, Waterborne Commerce of the United States 1998, Part 5,

National Summaries (Fort Belvoir, VA: 2000).

U.S. Waterborne Domestic Trade: 1970-98 (Annual totals)

Figure 2-33 Millions of short tons

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998 

Government and industry representatives have worked together to consider alternatives for

the several possible paths along which U.S. space-launch capability may develop over the

coming decades, as well as the appropriate near-term steps. It is likely that the FAA and the

Air Force will develop a shared relationship for determining commercial-launch safety

requirements.

Maritime Shipping

The U.S. maritime transportation system consists of waterways, ports and their intermodal

connections, vessels, vehicles, and system users. During the past 25 years, pressure to lower

prices and improve service, as well as the growing application of new technologies have

transformed the maritime shipping industry. Maritime shipping has generally been

intermodal; other forms of transportation are needed to haul cargo to and from ports. The

container revolution has made the connections to rail and truck significantly more efficient.

The increased use of containers during the past 25 years has far outpaced that of other forms

of maritime trade (dry bulk, tanker, and general cargo).

In 1975, the U.S. domestic shipping industry was growing rapidly due to an increase in crude

oil trade and was projected to grow even faster. But by 1998, it had grown by only 16 percent

in tonnage (figure 2-33) due to increased dependence on pipelines to transport crude oil. On

the other hand, waterborne foreign trade has grown 65 percent by weight (short-tons) since

1975 (figure 2-34). The projected growth in domestic shipping led to improvement of the

nation’s inland waterway system, including the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway, new locks

and dams on the Mississippi River, and the St. Lawrence Seaway (figure 2-35), and other

improvements. Figure 2-36 shows the overall U.S. inland waterway system.
2-32

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Water Resources Support Center, Waterborne Commerce of the United States 1998, Part

5, National Summaries (Fort Belvoir, VA: 2000); DRI/McGraw-Hill, World Seatrade Service (New York, NY: McGraw-Hill

Companies: 1999).

U.S. Waterborne Foreign Trade: 1975-2001 (Annual totals)

Figure 2-34 Millions of short tons

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2001

Projected

Figure 2-35

The St. Lawrence Seaway

Sault St. Marie

Duluth/Superior

Green Bay

Milwaukee

Chicago

Burns International Harbor

Detroit

Toledo Lake Michigan

Lake Huron

Lake Ontario

Atlantic Ocean

St. Lawrence River

Oswego

Ogdensburg

Quebec

Montreal

Sept-Iles

Toronto

Canada

The United States

Area of Detail

Lake Superior

Lake ErieErie

Gulf of St. 

 Lawrence

Source: Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., ESRI Data & Maps (CDROM) (Redlands, CA: 1999).
2-33

Based on the Maritime Administration’s analysis of a survey conducted by the American

Association of Port Authorities, the U.S. port industry has invested approximately $15 billion

since 1973 on improvements in its port facilities and infrastructure. Between 1979 and 1989,

new construction was 72.6 percent of total U.S. public port industry capital expenditures. In

the 1970s and 1980s, the North Atlantic ports ranked highest in the level of total industry

investments [USDOT MARAD 1997]. Port industry investments between 1994 and 1998

account for about 42 percent of total U.S. port industry investments since 1973. Types of

investment include new construction and modernization/rehabilitation. For 1998, new

construction accounted for 73.3 percent of total expenditures. Also for 1998, the Pacific Coast

ports accounted for nearly 50 percent of total industry investment.

The world’s general-cargo trades were revolutionized by U.S. shipbuilding innovations in

advanced containerships and roll-on/roll-off vessels. At the end of 1975, the United States

held 25 percent of the world’s fleet of general cargo ships, which carried 30 percent of the

tonnage. Tables 2-1 and 2-2 show the status of the U.S. oceangoing merchant fleet in 1975 and

1999, respectively. Growth in the number of full containerships began to change the shipping

world, as shipping lines and ports developed container facilities to compete with

noncontainer general-cargo vessels.

In 1975, New York led all U.S. ports in tonnage. The Port of Long Beach was the tenth-ranked

port by tonnage (table 2-3); primary trade for California ports was tanker imports of petroleum

and petroleum products. The tanker trade, hurt by the worldwide oil crisis of previous years,

was beginning to recover in 1976 due to increased petroleum imports. Overall, the liner trade

was strongest at that time and was expected to continue to increase, while the cruise industry

carried only a limited number of passengers.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Atlas

Database (Washington, DC: 2000).

Figure 2-36

U.S. Inland Waterway System: 1999
2-34

The maritime industry has changed more dramatically in the past 30 years than in any other

period in history. Where shipping could once be divided into tankers, bulk carriers, and drycargo ships, there are now many more specialized ship designs. Container ships, which first

appeared in the 1960s, are now commonplace, although their proportion of the world

shipping fleet is still relatively small. Between 1994 and 1998, the number of container vessels

grew by 57 percent (figure 2-37). Roll-on/roll-off ships dominate short sea routes in many

parts of the world.

World containerized trade moves almost doubled between 1991 and 1999 (figure 2-38), and

U.S. ports on both coasts have responded to their increased activity. By 1987, New York was

the top U.S. port in the container trade, followed by Long Beach, and the top 15 U.S. container

ports accounted for 89 percent of the total activity in the United States. Figure 2-39 shows the

location of the top 25 container ports and the volume of containers handled in 1987 and 1999

(see also tables 2-4 and 2-5).

U.S. Oceangoing Merchant Marine: as of June 30, 1975

(Self-propelled vessel 1,000 gross tons)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Maritime Administration, June 1976.

Table 2-1

Privately owned Government-owned Total

Ships

Deadweight

tons (000) Ships Ships

Deadweight

Tons (000)

Deadweight

tons (000)

Combination passenger/cargo

Freighters

Bulk carriers

Intermodal

Total U.S. flag

7

162

19

148

583

59

2,190

543

2,807

14,610

354

2,176

0

47

2,999

64

377

19

152

891

57

215

0

4

308

413

4,366

543

2,854

17,609

>

=

U.S.-Flag Oceangoing Self-Propelled

Merchant Vessels of 1,000 Gross Tons

and Over as of Apr. 1, 1999

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime

Administration, U.S. Merchant Marine Data Sheet, as of

Apr. 1, 1999.

Table 2-2

Deadweight

Ships tons (000)

Tanker

Dry bulk

Containership

Roll-on/roll-off

Cruise/passenger

Other

Total

123

14

82

27

4

28

278

7,914

579

2,905

552

37

689

12,676

Active fleet

U.S. Oceanborne Foreign Trade Top 10 Ports (1975)

(Thousands of tons)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Maritime Administration, United

States Oceanborne Foreign Trade Routes (Washington, DC: 1978).

Table 2-3

Imports Exports Total

New York

Baton Rouge

Houston

Norfolk

Philadelphia

New Orleans

Baltimore

Corpus Christi

Beaumont

Long Beach

50,153

39,861

23,520

5,818

29,055

13,814

17,546

17,125

15,441

13,348

5,524

8,563

13,360

27,694

4,370

19,170

13,309

3,844

3,476

4,975

55,677

48,424

36,880

33,512

33,425

32,984

30,855

24,969

18,917

18,323

U.S. Port
2-35

Source: Lloyd’s Maritime Information Service, vessel inventory datafile, various years, available at

www.lmis.com/f-sdat.htm, as of October 2000.

World Container Vessel Fleet: 1994-98

Figure 2-37

Source: K.C. Sjetnan, 1999, Cargo Systems, The Future of the Container Shipping Industry

(London: IIR Publications, Ltd.).

World Containerized Trade Moves: 1991-2001

Figure 2-38

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

1995 1997

Number of vessels

1994 1996 1998

1991

Millions TEU*

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Projected *TEU = Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit.
2-36

Source: Journal of Commerce, data from Port Import/Export Reporting Service (PIERS), 2000.

Figure 2-39

Top 25 U.S. Container Ports: 1987 and 1999

Tacoma, WA

Seattle, WA

Portland, OR

Oakland, CA

Long Beach, CA

Los Angeles, CA

Houston, TX

New Orleans, LA

Gulfport, MS

Savannah, GA

Newport News, VA

Baltimore, MD

Philadelphia, PA

Chester, PA

Boston, MA

New York, NY

Wilmington, DE

Norfolk, VA

Wilmington, NC

Charleston, SC

Jacksonville, FL

West Palm Beach, FL

Port Everglades, FL

Miami, FL

San Juan, Puerto Rico

Thousand 20-foot equivalent units

1987

1999

3,000

1,500

750

375

U.S. Waterborne Container

Trade – Top 10 Ports

(Thousands of metric tons)

Source: Journal of Commerce, data

from PIERS, 1998.

Table 2-4

U.S. Port 1997

Long Beach, CA

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Charleston, SC

Seattle, WA

Oakland, CA

Norfolk, VA

Houston, TX

Miami, FL

Savannah, GA

20,142

15,231

15,003

8,996

7,980

7,289

7,433

6,207

4,982

4,895

Source: K.C. Sjetnan, 1999, Cargo Systems, The Future of the

Container Shipping Industry (London: IIR Publications, Ltd.).

Table 2-5

Container

throughput

Singapore

Hong Kong

Kaohsiung

Rotterdam

Pusan

Long Beach

Hamburg

Los Angeles

Antwerp

Shanghai

Dubai

Tokyo

New York/New Jersey

Felixstowe

Gioia Tauro

Kobe

Yokohoma

San Juan

Manila

Algreciras

15,100,000

14,582,000

6,271,053

6,010,000

5,752,955

4,100,000

3,546,940

3,378,218

3,265,000

3,000,000

2,804,104

2,495,000

2,465,993

2,461,823

2,100,000

2,100,000

2,091,240

1,990,272

1,856,372

1,825,614

Port

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

(Tie) 15

17

18

19

20

Top 20 Container Ports: Throughput 1998
2-37

Ships, on average, are getting bigger. Today’s container vessels have 50 percent or more cargo

capacity than those of 1975. Figure 2-40 shows the increasing size of container vessels

between 1980 and 2000. The first mega-container ship, with a capacity of 8,000 20-foot

equivalent units (TEUs) (e.g., a TEU is the length of a container divided by 20), was developed

by a German consortium in 1997.

The container revolution has emphasized the serious infrastructure problems facing the U.S.

ports and waterways. The newer, larger ships of the 1970s required deepening of waterways

and ports, but a political stalemate over funding in the early 1980s stopped these improvements. The Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) of 1986 provided the impetus for

many U.S. ports to deepen channels to enable them to handle large bulkships. The WRDA

fundamentally altered the financial basis of the maintenance of American harbors by creating

a new Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund. Rather than relying on general appropriations to pay

for port deepening and maintenance dredging, funds were collected by a tax—the Harbor

Maintenance Tax—on cargo value. The WRDA also, for the first time, required local project

sponsors (state and local agencies) to pay a share of costs. Since then, the U.S. Supreme Court

has ruled that the Harbor Maintenance Tax is an unconstitutional tax when applied to

exports. In 1999, the Clinton Administration proposed a fee based on registered tonnage of a

ship, adjusted for the ship’s cargo and passenger capacity.

U.S. domestic waterborne trade, consisting primarily of bulk commodities moving on U.S.

inland, Great Lakes, and coastal waters, suffered during the oil shortages of the mid-1970s,

the inflation and financial crises of the early 1980s, and the Mississippi River flood in 1993.

In the 1990s, however, it has shown moderate increases. The top three commodity groups in

the U.S. domestic waterborne trade over the past 10 years have been petroleum and petroleum

products, crude materials, and coal. In the mid-1980s, food and farm products fell to number

four, behind coal. Figure 2-41 shows the top commodities shipped by waterborne commerce

in the United States.

The North American cruise passenger trade has shown steady growth for almost two

decades, increasing an average of 7.6 percent per year from 1980 to 1997. The cruise industry,

which is primarily foreign-owned, is using new ships and amenities to attract the vacation

dollars of American tourists [DRI/McGraw-Hill 2000].

Source: K.C. Sjetnan, 1999, Cargo Systems, The Future of the Container Shipping Industry

(London: IIR Publications, Ltd.).

The Largest Container Vessels: 1980-2000

Figure 2-40

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Estimated

0

20-foot equivalent units

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000
2-38

Keys to the Future

As foreign trade continues to grow, U.S. ports and their intermodal connections face four

significant problems:

changing business practices;

ports must seek new financial resources for expansion and deepening projects to

accommodate the new generation of bigger, faster cargo ships;

environmental concerns that have impacted port expansion must be addressed; and

maintenance projects and landside connections must be improved.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling, in March 1998, that the Harbor Maintenance Tax is an

unconstitutional tax on exports has placed funding for port expansion, deepening, and

maintenance in jeopardy. Proposals have been made to adopt other tax structures or return to

the use of general appropriations for port projects. In any case, a strategic investment in the

marine transportation system is required to meet future global demands.

The U.S. Coast Guard will continue to seek innovative means of managing our nation’s

waterways to ensure the safe and efficient movement of people and goods. These efforts must

proactively manage the multiple competing uses of the nation’s waterways and ensure that

increased usage of the waterways for both commerce and recreation does not degrade the

safety, efficiency, and environmental integrity of the waterways. The outcome of these efforts

will ensure the continued reliability and efficiency of waterway transportation needed to

accommodate the increased demands the marine transportation system will face in light of

projected increases in maritime trade.

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Waterborne Commerce of the United States 1998, Part 5, National Summaries

(Fort Belvoir, VA: 2000).

U.S. Total Waterborne Commerce: 1978-97

Figure 2-41
2-39

Spurred by an expected three-fold increase in container traffic by 2025, the maritime sector

will likely follow the lead of the aviation industry and establish a “hub and spoke” system of

marine transportation. One or two megaports (hubs) on each coast will receive and send linehaul traffic, which would be lightered up or down the coasts on container barges. Establishment of hub and spoke systems will likely be further prompted by the inability of most U.S.

ports to handle future generations of container megaships while the likelihood of constructing

new, large ports is very low.

Many areas of the country, such as New York, Boston, and Oakland, have experienced lengthy

permit application processes for dredging ports because of environmental concerns related to

disposal of dredged material in the ocean.

Ports, in cooperation with other modes of transportation, must also look to innovative means

of moving cargo to and from landside destinations. The total volume of domestic and inter–

national marine trade is expected to triple over the next 25 years. Major U.S. ports face prob–

lems of landside congestion and scarcity of land to accommodate these increasing cargo

flows.

In southern California, the Alameda Corridor is under construction to move huge volumes of

cargo to and from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The 20-mile, $2.4 billion corridor,

expected to be open in 2002, connects the ports by rail to an intermodal transfer site.

Accompanying truck lanes are also part of the project. In northern New Jersey, officials are

considering construction of a new portway for trucks to move cargo to and from Port Newark

and Port Elizabeth. Other ports are also considering projects to provide better on-dock or

near-dock rail access and to improve the flow of truck traffic into and out of ports. Over some

medium-distance destinations, it may be possible to promote barge operations to ease

landslide congestion.

The use of new information technologies is likely to increase the global nature of shipping as

buyers and sellers use the Internet to execute transactions worldwide as they solicit product

bids, obtain freight rates, and charter ships online.

By 2025, port operations will be fully automated and information technologies, beyond

today’s tracking and tagging, will specify where and when a container should be loaded and

what time it should arrive at the port, eliminating storage needs while promoting seamless

transfer of containers across transportation modes. However, these technological improvements will not obviate the need for people. Low-cost global positioning system (GPS) receivers can also improve operations. For example, very accurate positioning readings can help

ship pilots find navigable channels, greatly reducing the need to dredge.

All of these technologies will help meet the higher expectations businesses will demand of

transportation services: reliability, timeliness, efficiency, low cost, and damage minimization.

Deregulation

Since the late 1970s, both the nature and importance of regulation have changed as the federal

government has undertaken some major deregulation initiatives. In the mid-1970s, nearly all

interstate transportation was subject to government economic regulation. By 1999, the

decisionmaking process covering entry, exit, pricing, and quality of service has been

relinquished by the federal government and turned over to the carriers and to market forces.

Regulatory emphasis has shifted from economic controls, such as rate and entry controls,

industry concentration, labor relations, and antitrust immunity to safety, environmental, and

capability concerns.
2-40

Significant deregulation legislation includes the Motor Carrier Act of 1980 for Interstate

trucking; deregulation of intrastate trucking in 1994; the Revitalization and Regulatory

Reform Act of 1976 and the Staggers Rail Act of 1980 for railroads; the Bus Regulatory Reform

Act of 1982 for buses; the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 for airlines; and the 1984 Shipping

Act for ocean carriers.

Generally, the goal of deregulation has been to remove or reduce government-imposed

constraints on the power of the market forces to determine industry economics. The desire to

relax these constraints often grew out of recognition by the transportation enterprise that the

conditions that stimulated the original regulatory actions no longer applied. In most cases,

deregulation has been successful in creating conditions more conducive to industry success,

but in some circumstances has led to decreased service options in rural areas.

This section on deregulation focuses on the far-reaching changes that resulted from the

economic deregulation of the motor carrier (trucking and bus), freight railroad, aviation, and

maritime industries, and looks at the impacts on transportation activity.

Motor Carriers

The motor carrier industry comprises truck and bus companies. In 1975, the motor carrier

industry was regulated by the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC). The ICC controlled

routes of service and rates through its rate bureaus. Start-up companies were required to

prove that their plan to provide new service was in the public’s best interest. Only a limited

number of truck and bus companies were authorized to provide service—18,000 truck

companies in 1975 compared with nearly 500,000 today [USDOT FMCSA 2000]. Responding

to concerns about the economic inefficiency of the trucking industry, the ICC loosened the

entry standards in the late 1970s. The Motor Carrier Act of 1980 further eased barriers to

entry.

Trucking companies were given authority to set rates independently, and most antitrust

immunity for collective rate-making was eliminated. As a result, existing carriers expanded

into new services with new routes and new, smaller carriers entered the business operations.

In the years immediately following 1980, the use of private carriers (“in-house” trucking

fleets) declined as companies chose to take advantage of lower rates and improved service by

the for-hire carriers.

During the 1980s, the

number of motor carriers

and commercial trucks

increased (see figure 2-42

for growth in the number

of commercial trucks).

Today, there are nearly

500,000 trucking

companies providing

service, most of them with

six or fewer trucks

(table 2-6).

Deregulation also led to

fragmentation of industry

services and concentration

of market power. Under

the regulatory regime, Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway

Statistics (Washington, DC: various years).

Index of Number of Commercial Trucks: 1975-98

Figure 2-42

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

1975 = 1.0

1975 1980 1985 1990

Single-unit truck

Tractor-trailer truck

1995 1998
2-41

many carriers offered both truckload (TL) and less than truckload (LTL) services. But, under

deregulation, carriers began to specialize in either LTL or TL with the vast majority of carriers

entering the TL segment. Very few carriers entered the LTL sector, and the largest LTL carriers

have increased their control of that segment even more significantly. Deregulation also

increased the use of owner operators, drivers who own their vehicle and typically rent

themselves out to larger carriers.

Increased competition has improved industry efficiency as carriers face constant pressure to

reduce operating costs or risk losing market share to competitors. Since labor represents a

relatively significant portion of total operating costs in the industry, drivers’ wages have not

been immune to this pressure. Since 1975, drivers’ real earnings, adjusted for inflation, have

declined. Coinciding with, and partially responsible for, this wage stagnation has been a

decrease in the number of for-hire drivers represented by labor unions, with representation

falling from a high of 60 percent in 1973 to below 25 percent by 1995.

Less than half of total trucking activity on the nation’s highway network, measured by both

ton-miles and value of shipments, occurs within state boundaries [USDOT BTS 1997b]. In

1994, 41 states still maintained some form of economic regulation over intrastate trucking.

With interstate trucking deregulated, intrastate rates were 40 percent higher than rates for

interstate moves of the same distance. The federal government removed intrastate regulations

in 1994.

Bus companies, too, were given freedom to set rates and determine routes as a result of

deregulation in 1982. Economic deregulation spurred strategic reorganization of the bus

industry, created conditions for improved services, and, in certain cases, resulted in

diminished services. Greyhound and Trailways joined forces in 1987 to provide a larger

network of intercity bus service. In addition, new, smaller regional carriers have started

providing service to specialized niche markets. These carriers not only serve geographic

markets, but also sectors of the population, such as senior citizens, metropolitan commuters,

vacation travelers, or luxury travelers. About 4,000 private motorcoach companies operate in

the United States, offering charters, tours, regular route service, and other bus services

[ABA n.d.].

Following deregulation and with increasing competition from airlines and automobiles, bus

companies eliminated many unprofitable routes and stops, particularly in rural areas. In

1982, more than 11,000 locations were served nationwide, down from more than 16,000 in the

early 1970s. Today, the number of locations served has fallen to just about 5,000, with much of

Active Interstate Carriers by Fleet Size: 2000

Note: Data include intrastate hazardous materials carriers.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Motor Carrier Management Information System Report LS50B901

(Washington, DC: March 2000).

Table 2-6

Passenger

carriers All others

Hazardous

material

One

2 to 6

7 to 20

21 to 100

101 to 5,000

Over 5,000

Unspecified

Total

9,083

17,249

9,028

5,194

1,644

17

1,410

43,625

5,927

4,535

1,470

832

147

1

2,360

15,272

204,269

139,021

32,058

9,799

1,417

8

80,587

467,159

Number of Carriers

Total

219,279

160,805

42,556

15,825

3,208

26

84,357

526,056

Fleet size

(number of

power units)
2-42

the curtailed service in rural areas. The Federal Transit Act provides support for the intercity

bus needs of rural residents.

Keys to the Future

Today, regulatory concerns focus on safety in both the truck and bus industry. The new

USDOT Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) was created in 1999 by the

Motor Carrier Safety Improvement Act to step up enforcement efforts and target more

resources to ensure safety compliance. New efforts using information technology are

underway to improve safety data collection, its timeliness, and dissemination to enforcement

officials. The FMCSA was the first regulatory agency to move many of its regulatory process

to the Internet in order to fully maximize public participation in its processes. This could

have a major impact and help USDOT ensure safer movement of goods and passengers on

our highways as we look to the future. For a discussion of safety trends, see Chapter 3.

Today, the motor carrier industry remains an integral part of the increasingly intermodal

supply chains. By 2025, large logistics providers who today manage these supply chains

will have their own truck fleets largely through acquisitions and mergers of existing motor

carriers. These companies will also own air- and sea-based fleets to provide door-to-door

service across the world. The increase in LTL shipments for just-in-time deliveries will

provide opportunities for using smaller containers, compared to the 20- to 40-foot containers

used today.

By 2025, the United States, Canada, and Mexico will have seamless cross-border movements

truly creating a seamless North America. This will provide tremendous economic benefits to

the entire region.

Freight Railroads

In 1975, the nation’s railroads—once the cornerstone of the transportation system—were

foundering under ICC regulations that dated back to the 19th century. They did not have

enough capital to invest in new track and equipment and operated with unsafe and

deteriorating equipment. In 1976, more than 47,000 route-miles—about 25 percent of the

nation’s total—were operated at reduced speeds because of dangerous conditions [AAR

2000a].

The Railroad Revitalization and Regulatory Reform Act of 1976 partially deregulated rail

rates and expedited merger processing. That year, government-sponsored Conrail replaced

seven bankrupt northeastern rail lines. In 1980, the Staggers Act gave railroads the freedom

to set rates, subject to maximum rate regulation, and were allowed to abandon service on

unprofitable rail lines.

The Staggers Act was the springboard for the U.S. railroad industry. From 1980 to 1998, rail

freight rates per ton adjusted for inflation declined an average of 38 percent and Class I

(major) freight railroads averaged a 7.5 percent return on their net investment, up from

2 percent in the 1970s (figure 2-43). Figure 2-44 shows the Class I railroad performance

indices for labor productivity, revenue ton-miles, revenues, and workforce from 1975 to 1998.

Over the past 20 years, the railroad industry experienced many changes:

1. The industry consolidated, and today, there are eight Class I (major) railroads in the

United States. Class I railroads now own approximately 100,000 miles of road (routemiles), down from 192,000 in 1975. Figure 2-45 shows the 1998 volume of freight moved

along various route lengths of the rail network, including Class I railroads, regionals,

and short-lines.
2-43

Source: Association of American Railroads, Railroad Facts (Washington, DC: various years).

Class I Railroad Rate of Return on Net Investment: 1975-98

Figure 2-43 Rate of return

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

1.0

0.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1998

Source: Association of American Railroads, Railroad Facts (Washington, DC: various years).

Class I Railroad Performance Indices: 1975-98 (1975 = 1.0)

Figure 2-44

0.0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Labor productivity 

(revenue ton-miles per 

employee)

Revenue ton-miles

Employees

Revenue (real)

Staggers Act 

passed October 

1980
2-44

2. Ninety-one thousand miles of rail line were abandoned or sold by major railroads. Many

of the lines were sold to new, aggressive regional and short-line railroads. Regional and

short-line railroads operated 50,000 miles of road in 1998 [AAR 2000a].

3. The railroads have undergone productivity growth that far outpaces the American

economy as a whole [AAR 2000b].

4. Railroads established connections with trucking and ocean-shipping companies so that

today, intermodal traffic has grown from 3.1 million trailers and containers in 1980 to 8.8

million in 1998 [AAR 2000b].

Between 1981 and 1995, the federal government increased funding to the states for rail freight

planning and acquisition, rail facility construction, and rehabilitation. The Railroad

Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing (RRIF) Program an innovative program of TEA-21,

provides loans and loan guarantees for railroad capital improvements to state and local

governments, corporations, railroads, and joint ventures that include at least one railroad for

the first time ever in the rail industry.

The resurgence of the freight railroads proved so successful that Conrail was privatized in

1987. At that time, this was the largest initial public offering ever made in the nation’s history.

In 1999, Conrail was absorbed by CSX and Norfolk Southern in a historic consolidation tying

East Coast and Midwest freight traffic to the South through two different systems.

Today, the overall challenges facing the railroad industry is to address issues of safety,

congestion, productivity, and cost in an environment of ongoing mergers and consolidation.

As the industry moves increasingly to consolidation, it is critical to maintain the

competitiveness of the rail industry.

Keys to the Future

The Federal Railroad Administration expects rail ton-miles to increase from an estimated 1.46

trillion in 2000 to 2.40 trillion in 2025 and the rail freight industry to grow an average of 2

percent per year between now and 2025. This growth reflects the adoption of technological

advances in communications, command, and control; more fuel-efficient locomotives;

high-capacity, lightweight freight cars; and moderate traffic growth, led by intermodal traffic.

Figure 2-45

Railroad Network Showing Volume of Freight: 1998

Note: Data for Hawaii are not shown here as they have no freight railroads; data were not available for Alaska.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Atlas Database 2000

(Washington, DC: 2000).

Under 9.9 mgt

10 to 19.9 mgt

20 to 39.9 mgt

40 to 59.9 mgt

60 to 99.9 mgt

Over 100 mgt

Railroad Freight Density

(million gross tons = mgt)
2-45

In this decade, the industry’s movement toward mergers is expected to continue, and the

number of major railroad systems may be reduced from today’s seven to as few as two transcontinental railroads. There is uncertainty over the structure the railroad industry will take,

however, in large part due to uncertainty over what rules will ultimately be applied to future

railroad merger applications. Currently, there is a proceeding underway, initiated by the

Surface Transportation Board (STB) proposing a rewrite of the merger rules. These proposed

changes would require applicants to explore the consequences of possible merger activities of

other railroads, provide service assurances to shippers, and enhance competition for the first

time ever. The final rule, due in June 2001, will influence the speed and extent of future

railroad mergers.

In the future, there is the possibility that non-railroads could acquire railroad systems and

operate them very differently than they are operated today. Innovative transportation companies, such as the United Parcel Service, could acquire railroads to strengthen their multimodal

operations and control the railroad’s operation rather than be a customer of that railroad as

we have historically seen.

The issue of access to rail lines of competing railroads will continue to be contentious. If, to

increase competition, access is mandated by either the STB or Congress, the owning railroads

could be faced with reduced financial ability due to more complex operations, and worsened

service. Alternatively, such access could provide improved service if the additional carrier can

provide innovative, low-cost service. The pricing of access is critical in order not to discourage the owning railroad from investing in roadway.

With increased financial pressures on the major railroads to provide improved service and

reduce cost, one solution is to expand capacity. This is possible through adoption of technological improvements, such as Positive Train Control. In addition, out of financial necessity,

these railroads may be more amenable to an increased federal government role in funding

projects that provide both public and private benefits.

Aviation System

In 1975, the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) controlled market entry by new airlines, regulated

cargo rates and passenger fares, provided government subsidy to airlines, and controlled

interairline relations, such as mergers and agreements.

In 1978, the U.S. Congress passed the Airline Deregulation Act, ending four decades of

economic regulatory policy that governed the development of domestic air transportation.

Prior to 1978, air regulation came under intense criticism from academic economists, and later

by lawmakers, who wanted open competition in the air industry to replace government

control of entry, exit, pricing, and other industry structures. The 1978 Deregulation Act

created conditions for competition, removed restrictions on domestic service entry, allowed

market-based fares and pricing, made changes to antitrust laws to conform to general antitrust principles, recognized the need to continue service to small communities, and abolished

the CAB [Brenner et al. 1985].

Deregulation changed the air industry structure, both in terms of the airlines offering services

and the nature of the services offered. One major change in airlines’ operations is the change

in route structure from a linear point-to-point network, in which airplanes flew through a

series of points collecting passengers along the route, to a hub-and-spoke network. The

primary advantage of the hub-and-spoke network is that it allows airlines to connect several

origins with multiple destinations without having all points directly connected. “Hubbing”

allowed carriers to serve more markets without having to increase fleet size and seat capacity

on flights to and from smaller cities, although total miles traveled could be higher. The huband-spoke system cut airline operating costs and allowed airlines to create more compre–

hensive networks to efficiently serve many different city-pair markets. It also resulted in fewer
2-46

direct flights to destinations and allowed airlines to establish dominance at their hubs. Before

deregulation, there were only a few airports with limited hub-and-spoke operations for the

major carriers, including Atlanta, Chicago O’Hare, Denver, Dallas/Fort Worth, Minneapolis,

New York, and St. Louis. At present, there are more than 20 airports designated as hubs by the

major carriers (table 2-7).

Major airlines also withdrew from small markets to focus on their hub-and-spoke systems. At

the end of 1978, large U.S.-certified airlines served 473 airports in 49 states and the District of

Columbia (there was no service in Delaware) [USDOT FAA 2000a]. By the end of 1998, only

260 airports were served by large commercial air carriers [USDOT FAA 2000c]. This gap has

been filled by regional airlines.

There has been a growing concentration of market share among the largest airlines. In 1999,

the four most dominant airlines measured by enplanements were Delta Air Lines, United

Airlines, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines. The four largest carriers increased their

percentage of total system enplanements from 40.7 percent in 1978 to 53.1 percent in 1998

(figure 2-46). The four largest carriers also significantly increased their share of total RPMs,

expanding from 43.5 percent in 1978 to 65.3 percent in 1998 [USDOT BTS OAI n.d.(b)].

Small communities that lost airline service due to deregulation received subsidized services

through the federal Essential Air Service program. When the program was started in 1978,

383 communities received subsidies. As of

July 2000, 106 communities still receive

subsidies, with 30 of those communities

located in Alaska [USDOT Office of Aviation

Analysis 1998].

While the major airlines implemented their

hub-and-spoke systems, other parts of the

commercial air carrier industry also

changed:

1. The advent of Southwest Airlines

extended the system it used in the

unregulated intrastate Texas market,

creating a model for new low-fare

entrants. Cities across the country

sought service from Southwest.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation,

Federal Aviation Administration, Working

Paper on Aerospace Capacity and Demand

(Washington, DC: 2000).

Top Four Largest Carriers’

Enplanements: 1978 and 1998

Figure 2-46

60

40

20

0

80

100

Other

Percent

Top 4

1978 1998

New 

entrants

Other

Top 4

Airline Domestic Hubs

Source: Airline websites, as of August 2000.

Table 2-7

United

Northwest

Continental

U.S. Air

TWA

America West

Alaska

Chicago (O’Hare)

Los Angeles

San Francisco

Washington, DC

Denver

Minneapolis/St. Paul

Detroit

Memphis

Houston

New York/Newark

Cleveland

Philadelphia

Pittsburgh

Charlotte

New York (JFK)

St. Louis

Phoenix

Las Vegas

Columbus, Ohio

Seattle

Los Angeles

Portland

Anchorage
2-47

2. Following Southwest’s marketing strategy of focusing on short-haul routes and low-fare

pricing, new entrants frequently served smaller and less used airports in metropolitan

areas, cutting their operating costs and reducing the threat of congestion that would

cause delays. In 1999, at least eight new airlines filed applications with the USDOT to

begin scheduled domestic passenger jet operations [USDOT BTS OAI n.d.(b)].

3. New regional carriers, designated as commuter carriers prior to 1978, linked smaller

markets to the major airlines’ hub-and-spoke systems. These markets had frequently

faced a loss of service as the major airlines consolidated to their hubs. The regional jets

can carry up to 70 passengers, cruise at speeds of more than 500 mph, and have a range of

about 800 miles, all significant improvements over earlier turboprop aircraft.

4. To provide small and medium communities with connecting service to and from large hub

airports, to create traffic to feed their hub airports, and to maintain their market share,

established airlines entered into code-sharing relationships with regional carriers.

5. Major airlines also created new, low-fare subsidiaries such as Delta Air Lines, Delta

Express, U.S. Airways’ Metro Jet, and the United Airlines Shuttle to compete with the new

entrants.

6. Applying information technology, airlines implemented “yield management systems,”

which allowed them to sell different seats on the same flights for widely varying prices.

Although purchase conditions were frequently complex, business travelers who

purchased tickets closer to flight times generally paid significantly more than travelers

who bought their tickets well in advance.

Deregulation also had a positive impact on fares. Between 1978 and 1998, real airfares have

declined by more than 30 percent in domestic markets and by 43 percent in international

markets, helping to create a mass market for air travel [USDOT BTS OAI n.d.(b)]. As a result of

declining fares, the industry yield (revenues per RPM) has declined (figure 2-47), but the

airlines remain profitable.

A 1999 USDOT study found that from 1979 to 1997, inflation-adjusted average fares increased

26 percent in short-haul markets without low-fare competition, but declined 36 percent in

markets with competition [USDOT FAA 2000a]. The study also found differences in traffic

growth. In short-haul markets with low-fare competition, passenger traffic has nearly

quadrupled since 1979—an increase of 60 million passengers [USDOT 1999a]. Traffic in other

short-haul markets grew by only 48 percent, or 26 million passengers, over the same period

[USDOT FAA 2000a].

An analysis of 50 city-pairs representing a geographic sample of short- and long-haul

markets, as well as travel in and between large, medium, and small hub airports, found

variations in fare trends. Between 1979 and 1998, real fares increased in 16 of the 25 markets

that were less than 700 miles apart. However, during the same time period, real fares declined

in 21 of the 25 markets more than 800 miles apart and in 14 of the 15 city-pairs more than

1,100 miles apart [USDOT BTS OAI n.d.(b)]. Under regulation, short-haul fares were kept

artificially low and were cross-subsidized by higher long-haul fares.

Keys to the Future

The issue of competition remains a major issue in the aviation industry. We must address

growing concern by new-entrant airlines that major airlines have used anticompetitive

practices to drive them out of markets. The USDOT and the Department of Justice (DOJ) have

both taken steps against anticompetitive actions, including a USDOJ antitrust suit against

American Airlines for anticompetitive actions on four routes from its Dallas-Ft. Worth Airport
2-48

hub. The USDOT identified best business practices, which airports could undertake to assure

access to new entrants and carriers seeking to expand their service. A new law requires

USDOT to analyze airports’ competition plans in response to the AIR-21 [Public Law

106-181].

While deregulation has provided higher levels of service and lower fares to much of the

country, certain areas have received fewer benefits. Travelers in some mid-sized cities on the

East Coast and in the Midwest have experienced limited service and pay relatively high fares

on certain routes. Since low-cost, convenient airline service is now a major factor in economic

growth and our quality of life, provision of adequate air service to these communities remains

an issue to be addressed.

Our efforts will continue to improve the efficiency of our air transportation system and

enhance domestic competition so that the American public in all communities will reap the

benefits of deregulation. We have to be visionary and vigilant to ensure that industry

restructuring and alliances bring greater benefit to all air travelers. At the same time, we have

to ensure that the regulatory environment does not curtail the profitabiliy of the industry.

Maritime

In 1975, the shipping liner industry operated on a regulated system of conferences established

in the 19th century. These conferences were voluntary associations of ocean carriers that

served as rate-setting mechanisms globally or on particular trade routes. Conferences also

attempted to ensure strong support for national flag carriers.

The Shipping Act of 1916 endorsed antitrust immunity for conferences and adopted the

concept of “common carriage” (all shippers, small or large, must be treated equally by

carriers) as its guiding principle. This law regulated the ocean-shipping industry for the next

68 years. Meanwhile, technological advances in the industry, especially containerization,

dramatically improved the industry’s productivity in the 1960s.

The advent of containerization and the growing uncertainty about the future of the conference

system led to calls for reform, culminating in the Shipping Act of 1984. This Act allowed the

conferences to engage in collective ratemaking activities, but provided Federal Maritime

Commission (FMC) oversight. The FMC’s primary responsibility is to “protect the nation’s

oceanborne trade from unfair treatment by foreign governments and to ensure that carrier

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working Paper on Aerospace Capacity and Demand

(Washington, DC: 2000).

International and Domestic Yield: 1978-98

Figure 2-47

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

U.S. cents (1998$)/revenue passenger-miles 

1978 1992 1994 1996 1998

25

20

15

10

5

0

Domestic

International
2-49

Box 2-8

agreements do not unduly impair competition or adversely affect service or rates.” The

Commission also is charged with monitoring the rates and practices of carriers owned or

controlled by their respective governments.

The Jones Act

After World War I, Congress enacted the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, Section 27 of which is

known as the Jones Act. The purpose of the Jones Act was to maintain reliable, domestic shipping

services and to ensure the availability of the domestic merchant marine industry to U.S. armed

forces in times of national emergency. The Jones Act fleet is a central component of American

military sealift. More than 75 percent of the self-propelled ocean-going vessels over 1,000 gross

tons in the Jones Act fleet are militarily useful. Approximately 124,000 U.S. citizens are employed

under the Jones Act maritime industry’s vessel crews or on shore-side jobs.

During the past 25 years, opponents frequently targeted the Jones Act for repeal. However,

supporters focusing on national security impacts and economic implications have succeeded in

preserving the Act.

The Jones Act requires U.S.-built, -owned, and -registered vessels to be used in waterborne

commerce along the inland waterways, across the Great Lakes, along the U.S. seaboard, and

between the U.S. mainland and noncontiguous U.S. states and territories. This practice is known

as cabotage and has been part of U.S. policy since 1789. Cabotage also is common in most

maritime nations; more than 40 industrial nations have cabotage laws similar to those of the United

States.

During the 1990s, the shipping industry underwent major consolidation in an effort to

improve the efficiency and productivity of the industry. Some of the important mergers were

P&O Container and Nedlloyd, Neptune Orient and APL Ltd., and Sealand and Maersk. Liner

carriers are currently using vessel-sharing arrangements with other carriers to improve

productivity. As a result, individual companies have less need to provide direct services to

multiple ports. Carriers can move cargo

through a limited number of hub ports and

use other intermodal transportation, such

as train, air, truck, or vessel feeder services,

to connect the hub with the cargo’s ultimate

destination or origin. In the United States,

the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles in

California are the largest container hub

ports in North America. Table 2-8 shows

the hub ports in various world regions.

Under pressure for deregulation from the

shipping industry, the U.S. Congress

passed the Ocean Shipping Reform Act

(OSRA) in 1998. OSRA allows shippers

and ocean carriers to enter, for the first time,

into confidential service contracts that must

be filed only with the Federal Maritime

Commission. Under previous Acts, the

carriers had to share this infor-mation with

all other shippers, small or large, who

could then demand similar rates from

ocean carriers. Now rates may be

negotiated on a case-by-case, one-to-one

World Container Port Ranking: 1998

Source: Mark Lambert et al., Containerization International Yearbook

1999 (London: Emap Business Communications, Ltd: 1999).

Table 2-8

Rank TEUs

Singapore

Hong Kong

Kaohsiung

Rotterdam

Busan

Long Beach

Hamburg

Los Angeles

Antwerp

Shanghai

Dubai

Tokyo

New York/New Jersey

Giola Tauro

Yokohama

15,136

14,582

6,271

6,004

4,539

4,098

3,588

3,378

3,266

3,066

2,804

2,495

2,466

2,126

2,091

Port

Container traffic, TEUs* (000s)

Country

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Singapore

China

Taiwan

Netherlands

South Korea

USA

Germany

USA

Belgium

China

UAE

Japan

USA

Italy

Japan

*TEUs = 20-foot equivalent units.
2-50

basis between shippers and carriers. This deregulation may eventually lead to disbanding of

the confer-ences because they would effectively be unable to set rates. OSRA strengthens

provisions that prohibit unfair foreign shipping practices and provides greater protection

against discrim-inatory actions. It could also lead to another round of consolidation in the

industry.

In 1999, the USDOT collaborated with other federal agencies to develop a bold and

comprehensive plan to modernize our nation’s Marine Transportation System (MTS), as

required in the U.S. Coast Guard Authorization Act of 1998. The MTS vision is to be the

world’s most technologically advanced, safe, secure, efficient, globally competitive, and

environmentally responsive system for moving people and goods by 2020.

Keys to the Future

The consolidation of ocean liner-shipping companies and vessel-sharing activity has raised

questions about the importance of nationality among carriers, as well as concern that national

and economic security could be weakened by the blurring of carrier nationalities. We are

likely to face questions about the extent of the liner-carrier industry’s globalization through

the consolidation process.

The full effect of the 1998 changes is not yet clear, but the liner industry’s trend is toward hub

ports. Major carriers, many of them newly consolidated, are using only a limited number of

ports and employing intermodal transfers to connect with other locations. This trend

emphasizes the importance of intermodal connections at ports and also raises questions

about future investment in nonhub ports.

Intermodal Freight Transportation

The U.S. transportation system, responding to domestic economic growth, global competition,

and advances in information and production technologies, has undergone major changes in

the freight transportation industry—what is being transported, how it is transported, and the

origins and destinations of the transported goods. This section looks at how these changes

have evolved over the last quarter century, particularly intermodalism. Intermodalism is a

term used to describe the movement of freight through the transportation system using two or

more modes that interconnect and interchange, allowing timely and cost-efficient delivery.

This section also discusses the growth in container use; the rise in global markets; shifts from

a manufacturing to a service economy; a general shift from a supplier-driven, high-inventory

freight logistics (“push”) system to a consumer-driven, low-inventory, just-in-time freight

logistics (“pull”) system; and e-commerce. See Chapter 5 for a similar discussion of the

changes in the passenger transportation industry.

Advances in technology and efforts to improve productivity led the move to intermodal freight

shipments. During the past 25 years, motor carriers, railroads, and ports have invested in

container facilities as they recognized the efficiency of containerized transport. Growth in

container transportation worldwide and associated developments by railroads and ports

have resulted in growth in intermodal transportation. The growing demand for intermodal

transport has also spurred demand for larger, specialized container ships and enough intermodal capacity to handle increased landside traffic. Today, an increasing proportion of cargo

from the Pacific Rim moves through West Coast container ports, particularly Los Angeles and

Long Beach, for destinations not only on the west coast, but throughout the nation.

Freight movement is increasingly becoming “mode invisible” with performance (time, cost,

and reliability) determining the choice of mode or modes. The ability to interchange goods
2-51

Box 2-9

between modes in a timely, cost-effective manner (primarily through containerization) has

become crucial to measuring system performance. Today, freight transportation logistics goals

are performance-based, rather than modally based, and the ability to interconnect and

interchange among modes to optimize the end-to-end movement of freight is vital. At the same

time, the individual modes continue to fill market niches (e.g., high-speed, or low-cost), within

an intermodal framework.

In 1975, waterborne commerce dominated international trade tonnage and value. Trucking

was the leading mode of domestic freight transportation from the standpoint of value, while

rail was the leader in terms of ton-mileage. Domestic waterborne commerce via barges along

the inland waterways, Great Lakes, and coastwise routes was important, but handled less

tonnage and value than either truck or rail. The intermodal container, first introduced in 1956

for domestic ocean/truck services, began a period of accelerated growth. However international container shipping had not begun its period of explosive growth, and domestic

intermodal and doublestack rail services had not been initiated.

Today, water continues to handle more international cargo by value, and substantially more

international cargo by weight, than any other mode. But, growth in high-value trade with

Canada and Mexico (principally by truck, but also by rail and pipeline) has led to a

substantial share of U.S. international trade by value for trucks. Growth in the global market

for high-value, time-sensitive goods also has led to a substantial international trade value for

air cargo. Domestically, trucks still carry more freight by value, and rails carry more ton-miles.

Trucks increased their share of intercity tonnage, while river barges and Great Lakes and

coastwise shipping had a slightly reduced share (although actual tonnage increased). In

terms of ton-miles, both rail and truck increased their share of total movement, while the

waterways remained relatively constant. Figure 2-48 shows domestic ton-miles of freight from

1975 to 1997. Figure 2-49 shows the domestic ton-miles of freight moved by different modes

during the same period.

To assemble the most efficient intermodal freight system, carriers have diversified and, in

many cases, consolidated. Companies, such as FedEx, UPS Worldwide Logistics, Hub Group

Logistics, Schneider Logistics, and Ryder Dedicated Logistics, have created air-truck, railtruck, ocean-truck, and ocean-rail combinations to become the leading players in domestic

and worldwide freight movements.

Intermodal Transportation and Supply Chains

Intermodal transportation, with options for integrating multiple modes, provides a flexible response

to the changing supply chain management requirements in global markets and distribution systems.

Integrating modes requires a process or systems approach for execution and a higher degree of

skill and broader knowledge of the transportation/supply chain processes— information, equipment, and infrastructure. Intermodal transport, as it moves from a focus on infrastructure components to a holistic focus on process or systems, will have more viability and applicability in the

world of global supply chain management.

A supply chain is defined as a set of three or more organizations directly linked by one or more of

the upstream and downstream flows of products, services, finances, and information from a source

to a customer. Supply chain management is defined as the systematic, strategic coordination of the

traditional business functions and the tactics across these business functions within a particular

company and across businesses within the supply chain, for the purposes of improving the longterm performance of the individual companies and the supply chain as a whole.

It is in this time of information and communications technology and capability that the supply chain

processes, and the modes supporting those processes, are gaining the capability of being

integrated.

Source: W. DeWitt and J. Clinger, Intermodal Freight Transportation, Transportation Research Board, Transportation

in the New Millennium (Washington, DC: 2000).
2-52

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics (Washington, DC: 1999).

Domestic Ton-Miles of Freight: 1975-97

Figure 2-49

Air carrier

Intercity truck

Class I rail

Water transportation

Oil pipeline

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1997

Billions

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation

Statistics (Washington, DC: 1999).

Total Ton-Miles of Freight: 1975-97

Figure 2-48

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1997

Billions

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000
2-53

National to Global Markets

The U.S. freight system has been driven by the rapid growth of international trade, which has

influenced the development of marine cargo facilities, air cargo facilities, land border

crossings, and domestic access infrastructure to connect these international ports of call with

domestic U.S. origins and destinations.

In 1975, U.S. freight transport was organized to serve regional and national markets. With

much of the Interstate highway system (IHS) in place by 1975, businesses had built a truck

freight system organized around regional and national supply chain and distribution

networks. Trucking had displaced the railroads as the dominant mode of domestic freight

transportation, just as the railroads had displaced the riverboats and barges a century earlier.

In most cases, trucking was more flexible and more time-sensitive than rail service, and could

provide customized service to manufacturers and distributors. Domestic truck transportation

accounted for a growing portion of the nation’s total freight shipments by value, although

railroads carried more by tonnage.

In 1975, international trade accounted for a modest portion of total U.S. freight movements

with the majority of this trade moving between Europe and east coast ports. Cross-border

trade with Canada was growing, especially among automobile manufacturers, but trade with

Mexico and Latin America was limited. A wave of growth in expanding global markets was

being felt on the west coast, where the surge in trade with Japan and Korea was reshaping the

west coast ports and transcontinental rail service.

Today, the continuing growth in international trade has sparked a push for upgraded

seaports, airports, rail terminals, border crossings, air cargo facilities, and navigation

channels, as well as the highway and rail access corridors needed to support them. Water

transport carries the most international cargo by weight and also by value, because it is the

most inexpensive mode of transportation (figure 2-50). Air cargo also hauls a growing share

of international trade by value, stemming from the growth in the global market for high-value,

time-sensitive goods. Trucks, taking advantage of the growth in trade with Canada and

Mexico, also move a substantial share of international trade by value.

Source: K.C. Sjetnan, 1999, Cargo Systems, The Future of the Container Shipping

Industry (London: IIR Publications, Ltd.).

Average Cost of Transporting One Ton One Mile: 1998

Figure 2-50

0

Sea

U.S. cents

Rail Truck Air

60

10

20

30

40

50
2-54

Japan and Korea are still our major western Pacific trading partners, but the Asian market has

expanded to encompass China and some Southeast Asian nations as our top trading

partners. Despite the recession in East and Southeast Asia in 1997, the volume of freight in

the Pacific trade continues to grow and is triggering additional port expansions around the

Pacific Rim.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has increased trade between the United

States and Canada, and between the United States and Mexico. The European Union (EU)

and NAFTA experience has spurred the formation of the MERCOSUR (Southern Common

Market) free-trade agreement among the major South American economies, as well as a series

of ongoing negotiations to integrate the Caribbean and Latin American economies into a

broad trade zone of the Americas.

Manufacturing to Service-Based Economy

The types of commodities moved on the freight system are directly related to the structure of

our economy, which determines production and consumption patterns. Over the past

25 years, the U.S. economy has expanded its industrial output while evolving to an

information and service-based structure.

The U.S. economy in 1975 was transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a service

economy. It was recovering from the economic and social impacts of the Vietnam War, but

growth alternated with periods of sharp recessions. Unstable fuel supplies and prices sent

shock waves through the economy, dampening domestic and international trade.

The U.S. economy was losing manufacturing jobs to the booming, low-wage Asian economies.

Traditional manufacturing jobs were being replaced by jobs in the growing service industries

(i.e., business services, health services, and finance), and in the technology sector. The

resultant economic pressures resulted in a massive restructuring of the U.S. business

enterprise. By 1975, businesses were lobbying for lower freight transportation costs and better

freight services to facilitate establishment of manufacturing facilities abroad.

Today, the economy’s service sector is larger than all other sectors in output and growth

potential. It also has fueled the longest period of economic expansion in U.S. history. The

service-producing sectors of the economy now account for about two-thirds of the nation’s

economic output and three-quarters of its jobs. This economy is slowly shifting from mass

manufacturing and distribution toward custom manufacturing and retailing—a world of

mail-order houses and overnight delivery.

These changes in the U.S. economy have transformed the nature of the freight moved in both

domestic and international markets. More freight is being moved over longer distances. This

freight is lighter (with more frequent shipments) and higher in value, on average, than it was

25 years ago (figure 2-51).

The cost per unit of moving freight has dropped significantly from 25 years ago. Total

logistics costs (e.g., transportation, warehousing, administration, and insurance) account for a

significantly smaller proportion of the GDP than in 1975. Inefficient freight operations have

been reorganized and new logistics practices adopted.

The relative shares of U.S. domestic versus U.S. international freight movement have also

changed. Domestic freight still accounts for the dominant share by volume and value, but the

share of international freight by value is growing.
2-55

Just-In-Time Systems

Another critical element of freight transportation is the relationship between consumer and

producer, which encompasses the logistics decisions a producer makes to optimize performance, customer service, and profitability. Today’s businesses often require higher priced,

higher quality transportation to assure timely product deliveries with little product loss or

damage. As business manufacturing and delivery practices have changed, so too have

transportation modes to fit a dynamic economy moving toward lower overall production and

distribution costs.

The logistics system of 1975 was a “push” system. Manufacturing, distribution, and retailing

were organized to support mass production, warehousing, and retailing.

In the push system, large hierarchical corporations used centralized design, production, and

marketing to achieve economies of scale. These integrated manufacturers purchased

materials and components from suppliers in large batches. Long production runs by the

manufacturer generated large inventories of finished products, which were warehoused by

distributors until shipped to retailers and customers. Throughout the process, large

inventories were maintained to buffer against changes in supply and demand cycles.

Transportation was organized to move goods through the logistics chain from supplier to

manufacturer, to distributor, and to the retailer. Each link was operated independently and

managed and priced within strict guidelines.

Today, the logistics system is increasingly a “pull” system. Retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and suppliers track customer demand daily and hourly through point-of-sale cash

registers and electronic purchase order data interchange. Orders and purchase patterns pull

goods through the supply chain. Increasingly, industries do not produce parts and final

products until an order is placed, giving rise to just-in-time manufacturing and retailing

systems.

Note: 1977 data limited to primary shipments of manufactured goods.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Commodity Flow Survey data

(Washington, DC: Various years); and U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Commodity Flow Survey

data (Washington, DC: Various years).

Freight Shipments by Value and Tonnage: 1977, 1993, and 1997

Figure 2-51 Percentage of shipments

By value By tonnage

1977 1993 1997 1977 1993 1997

10 -49.9

1 - 9.9

< 1

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

> 50 _

Pounds per shipment, 

all modes (thousands)
2-56

This shift from a “push” to a “pull” system is a result of the information revolution brought

about by computer and communication technologies. The “pull” system tailors products and

delivery to consumers’ needs and business cycles. The risk of over- or under-production is

reduced, as is the need to maintain large, costly inventories.

The information revolution and the “pull” logistics system have reshaped freight transportation. With improved communications and control, manufacturers and retailers have substituted more frequent and longer distance transportation services to obtain lower cost labor and

supplies. This pressures carriers to provide integrated and intermodal transportation services

that are cost-effective, timely, reliable, and can be tracked from door-to-door. Third-party

logistics companies (3PLs) have emerged as the dominant brokers of transportation services,

often handling the whole freight trip from manufacturer to customer. Fourth-party logistics

companies (4PLs) are an emerging trend.

Keys to the Future

The rate of public investment in domestic freight infrastructure is lagging behind changes in

freight movement patterns. Growth in government investment in intermodal connectors

providing access to ports, airports, marine terminals, rail terminals, and truck terminals has

not kept pace with growth in international and domestic freight and changing logistics

strategies of business and industry, creating even greater needs for public - private

partnerships and investments.

The nation’s highway and rail freight systems, which were developed for the east-west trade,

are being strained by the north-south NAFTA trade, especially at border crossings. Trade

flowing from South Asia via the Suez Canal is forcing reinvestment in older east coast ports,

and the growth of Latin American trade may soon overwhelm Florida and Gulf ports. The

demand for international air cargo service, much of it carried as belly cargo in wide-body

passenger planes, could outstrip the supply of planes and ground facilities handling

capacity.

Passengers and freight are competing for space on crowded transportation facilities, such as

highways, freight railroads, and airports. Freight service will face questions of incompatibility with new high-speed passenger rail. At seaports, containerships compete for space

with cruise ships; and on congested highway freight corridors, truck-only lanes, or

truckways, may be an option.

Improving intermodal connectors became a focus of federal policy in the 1990s, but new

policies and programs may be needed, especially where connectors span many jurisdictions.

It may be necessary to examine the financing of local freight-related improvements that

provide regional and national benefits.

The public or private sector, or some form of partnership between the two may need to finance

building truck staging and rest areas to improve carrier productivity and reduce truck travel

in urban settings. There also may be a need to improve staffing, skills, data, and planning

tools needed to support freight planning and investment at the federal, state, and local levels.

As U.S. carriers and 3PLs expand globally and foreign operators move into the U.S. transportation market, competition will intensify. Governments will be faced with balancing the

needs of domestic companies against the free and open international movement of freight.

There will be questions of providing support and coordination for efficient operations such as

free and fast passage of freight and personnel, standardization of policies affecting equipment

and lading, fair access to foreign ports and airports, and protection from subsidized

competition.
2-57

Concerns exist about the effect of the concentration of market power in a small number of

private 3PLs and retail distribution companies. Competition resulting from economic

deregulation could be undone by the market dominance of a limited number of carriers or

3PLs or both.

With 3PLs emerging as the new business model for transportation and logistics, questions

exist concerning their impact on competition and safety and whether there is a need for

additional or redesigned regulation. Further changes in regulation may be needed to respond

to the industry’s shift to shared containers and truck chassis, vessel-space chartering

agreements, and expanded use of independent owner-operators.

After two decades of consolidation, the rail industry may face questions about open access in

order to produce competition at a time when there are pressures for transcontinental rail

freight systems. There also are questions of whether regulatory streamlining of customs

clearance operations and truck size, weight, and safety enforcement will keep pace with

market growth and freight movement.

Box 2-10

Third- and Fourth-Party Logistics

The growth in U.S. freight transportation and the deregulation of transportation services created

opportunities for new transportation services, increased competition among transportation service

providers, and changed the relationships between shippers, consignees, carriers, and intermediaries. These changes, in part, led to the emergence of third-party logistics (3PL) service providers in

the early 1980s and, more recently, to fourth-party logistics (4PL) providers.

As production, distribution, and customer expectations changed, so did firms that provide logistics

services. In 1980, a third-party logistics service described a for-hire provider that performed

outsourced functions, such as carrier selection, warehousing, rate negotiations, and freight

payments. Today, these companies provide more services, including logistics information systems,

inventory management, customer order management, and real-time information feedback to

customers.

Fourth-party logistics service describes a for-hire provider that manages an entire supply chain by

integrating the resources, capabilities, and technology of its own firm with those of complementary

service providers to deliver a comprehensive supply chain solution to customers. These firms

provide value-added services beyond the traditional logistics functions, such as business strategy

consulting, business redesign, technology integration, management of multiple service providers,

and migration to e-systems.

Today, the average number of outsourcing relationships with logistics providers has risen to more

than 6 per company in certain industries, with more than 50 percent of Fortune 500 companies

having at least one contract with a 3PL provider. Industry estimates indicate that, by 1999, gross

revenues for outsourced logistics totaled nearly $46 billion and are expected to increase rapidly in

coming years.

Industry consolidation and e-commerce are two key factors that will change the future of 3PLs and

4PLs. For the immediate future, industry experts speculate that major acquisitions and mergers of

3PLs in Europe in 1999 may spark a similar trend in the domestic U.S. logistics market. Providing

superior solutions to manage the logistics needs of Dot-Com retailers and the business-to-consumer market will determine how competitive 3PLs and 4PLs will become in the ever-expanding

global marketplace.

Sources: Logistics Management and Distribution Report, 2000 Annual Report Online; S. Boyson, T. Corsi, M.

Dresner, and E. Rabinovich, Managing Effective Third Party Logistics Relationships: What Does It Take?, Journal of

Business Logistics, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 73-100 (1999); T. Prince, Onward in the Brave New World of Logistics,

Journal of Commerce, available at http://www.joc.com/, as of Aug. 20, 2000.
2-58

Box 2-11

E-commerce

By expanding marketplaces, the Internet is having a major, if not yet fully realized and understood,

affect on business. According to one estimate, e-commerce revenue is expected to top $1,600

billion by 2003 (figure 2-52). The U.S. share of users and revenues is expected to decline

somewhat in the future (figure 2-53). E-commerce results in fewer personal shopping trips, but

requires more delivery trips. However, the practical impact of e-commerce on transportation is

uncertain. As much as 90 percent of e-commerce, appears to be business-to-business (B2B)

transactions, rather than business-to-consumer (B2C) sales known as “ e-tailing.” E-commerce may

result in a shift in how goods are purchased, as well as how they are delivered.

Source: International Data Corp., EBusiness Trends, Internet Commerce Market Model,

Vol. 6, no. 1, 2000, available at http://www.idc.com, as of May 15, 2000.

Internet Commerce Revenues: 1997-2003

Figure 2-52 Billions of U.S. dollars

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Projected

2003

Non-U.S.

U.S.

We may have to consider workforce-related issues, such as shortages of trained truck drivers

(each driver turnover costs about $8,000 in replacement and training costs) and railroad

engineers, worker training, and modifications of work rules.

Despite significant gains, some challenges remain because of global trends. Our nation has

become an increasing part of a global economy and has expanded its manufacturing capability, while transforming itself to a largely service-based economy. The relationship between

consumer and manufacturer has become much more direct, with shorter production cycles

and delivery times, increased customization, and sharply reduced inventory. Advanced

information technologies and e-commerce have enabled better control over material and

information and facilitated business-to-business and business-to-consumer communications.

The dynamic changes of the past 25 years have created an efficient, market-driven freight

system, providing a variety of time-sensitive and lower cost services to consumers and

producers. This freight system stimulated the economic expansion of the 1990s and itself was

positively changed by the economic growth it helped spur.
2-59

References

Air Transportation Association of America (ATA). 1998. Air Travel Survey 1998, p. III-2.

Washington, DC.

American Bus Association (ABA). n.d. Industry Profile: Motorcoach Industry Facts. Available at http://www.buses.org/MAINframeset.cfm?dir=industryprofile&Path=index.cfm, as

of July 26, 2000.

American Public Transportation Association. 2000. 2000 Public Transportation Fact Book.

Washington, DC.

Association of American Railroads (AAR). 2000a. Impact of the Staggers Act. Available at

http://www.aar.org/comm/statfact.nsf/5406ac733125e6c7852564d000737b60/

651eb7a37771bf588525688000612858?OpenDocument, as of July 10, 2000.

_____. 2000b. Railroads: A Historical Perspective. Washington, DC. Available at http://

www.aar.org/comm/statfact.nsf/5406ac733125e6c7852564d000737b60?OpenView, as of

June 26, 2000.

Boyson, S., T. Corsi, M. Dresner, and E. Rabinovich. 1999. Managing Effective Third Party

Logistics Relationships: What Does It Take? Journal of Business Logistics 20, no. 1:73-100.

Brenner, M.A., J.O. Leet, and E. Schott. 1985. Airline Deregulation. Westport, CT: Eno Foundation for Transportation.

DRI/McGraw-Hill. 1999. World Seatrade Service. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Companies.

General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA). 1999. A Report to the President and

Congress on the General Aviation Revitalization Act, Five Year Results, p. 2. Washington, DC.

_____. 2000. Annual Industry Review – Outlook and Agenda 2000. February. Available at

www.generalaviation.org, as of April 14, 2000.

Source: International Data Corp., EBusiness Trends, Internet Commerce Market Model,

Vol. 6, no. 1, 2000, available at http://www.idc.com, as of May 15, 2000.

U.S. Percentage of Web Users and Internet Commerce Revenues as

a Proportion of World Share: 1999-2003

Figure 2-53

100

75

50

25

0

1999 2000 2001

Projected

2002 2003

Percent

Revenues

Users
2-60

Logistics Management and Distribution Report. 2000. Annual Report, July 2000. Available at

http://www.manufacturing.net/magazine/logistic/, as of August 20, 2000.

National Academy of Engineering (NAE). 2000. Greatest Engineering Achievements of the 20th

Century. Available at http://www.greatachievements.org/, as of August 2, 2000.

Prince, T. 1999. Onward in the Brave New World of Logistics. Journal of Commerce, 14 October. Available at http://www.joc.com/, as of August 20, 2000.

Public Law 106-181. 5 April 2000 (codified at 49 U.S.C. 40101). Aviation Investment and

Reform Act for the 21st Century (AIR-21). Available at http://www.nw.faa.gov/airports/

Presentations/FieldAIR-21/index.htm, as of August 23, 2000.

Rosato, D. 1998. Flying into Pockets of Pain. USA Today. 23 February.

Smith, P.G. 2000. Remarks to the Conference on Quality in the Space and Defense Industries.

Cape Canaveral, FL. 6 March.

U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC), U.S. Census Bureau. 1977. Commodity Flow

Survey. Washington, DC.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). 1977. National Transportation Trends and Choices

(To the Year 2000). Washington, DC. 12 January.

_____. 1997. Comprehensive Truck Size and Weight Study, volume 2, chapter 4, pp IV-7—IV-8.

Available at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/tswstudy/TSWfinal.htm, as of August 30,

2000.

_____. 1999a. Competition in the U.S. Domestic Airline Industry: The Need for a Policy to Prevent

Unfair Practices, p. 2 Washington, DC. May.

_____. 1999b. Performance Plan, Fiscal Year 1999. Washington, DC.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). 1997a.

Commodity Flow Survey. Washington, DC.

_____. 1997b. Truck Movements in America: Shipments From, To, Within, and Through States,

BTS/97-TS/1. May. Available at http://www.bts.gov/programs/transtu/ts1/ts1.htm, as of

August 29, 2000.

_____. 1999. National Transportation Statistics 1999. Washington, DC.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), Office

of Airline Information (OAI). n.d.(a). Data Administration Division, Form 41, 1975-1999.

_____. n.d.(b). Data Administration Division, Form 41, 1978-1998.

_____. n.d.(c). Data Administration Division, Form 298C, 1975-1985.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). 2000a.

Working Paper on Aerospace Capacity and Demand, Washington, DC. March.

_____. 2000b. Query to Air Traffic Activity Data System, year 1996 and 1999, as of April 14,

2000.
2-61

_____. 2000c. Query to 1998 OAG Flight Guide database, as of April 14, 2000.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Office of

Aviation Policy and Plans (OAPP). 2000. FAA Aerospace Forecasts, p. I-14. Washington, DC.

March.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA).

1998. Highway Statistics. Washington, DC.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

(FMCSA). 2000. Personal communication. 1 August.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Office of the Assistant Secretary for Aviation and

International Affairs (OAS), Office of Aviation Analysis. 1998. What is Essential Air Service?

Available at http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/rural/ruralair.htm, as of August 24, 2000.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Office of Inspector General (OIG). 1999. Audit

Report: Air Carrier Departure Data, number CE-1999-054. 5 February. Available at http://

www.oig.dot.gov/audits/ce1999054.pdf, as of September 8, 2000.

Safety

chapter 3

“ There is need for a real emphasis on safety in all highway program

funding. Safety should be a ‘North Star funding. Safety should be a ‘North Star’ for every one. It cannot be

just the direction for the USDOT.”

Dr. Robert Scopatz

Kissimmee, Florida

2025 Visioning Session, Atlanta, GA, Mar. 13, 2000

“Seat belt use is just as important to transportation safety as

vaccinations are to disease. We must look at seat belt use as a

public health issue.”

Dr. Marvin Liebovich

2025 Visioning Session, Apr. 20, 2000

3-1

Safety

chapter 3

“Safety is President

Clinton and Vice President

Gore’s highest transportation priority, and

reaching this goal will

benefit all. I call on you,

the safety leadership of

America, in partnership

with the Department, to

join us in a renewed effort

to increase seat belt use

and reduce catastrophic

loss of lives on our

highways.”

Rodney E. Slater,

Secretary, U.S. Department of

Transportation

Mar. 13, 2000

The public embraced the need for higher levels of transportation safety in the late 1960s and

early 1970s, creating a climate for new safety initiatives. Since then, the focus on safety within

the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) has progressively increased. Today, safety is

the Department’s “North Star.” Working closely with other levels of government and the

private sector, the USDOT is aggressively pursuing safety initiatives in all modes of transportation: highways, motor carriers (trucks and buses), transit, railroads, aviation, the maritime

industry, and pipelines.

Over the last 25 years, many new transportation safety measures have been successfully

implemented. Death and injury rates have been reduced on the roads, rails, and waters, as

well as in the skies. In 1975, transportation-related incidents were the sixth leading cause of

death in the United States, accounting for nearly 50,000 fatalities. By 1998, transportationrelated incidents had become the eighth leading cause of death,

accounting for nearly 44,000 fatalities (figure 3-1) in which 41,501

people died on the nation’s roads, 667 in air crashes (none of these

involved U.S. air carriers), and more than 1,500 were from other

transportation-related incidents [USDOT BTS 1999]. Table 3-1

shows the detailed distribution of transportation-related fatalities

for all modes in 1998, the latest year for which these numbers are

available.

This improvement in safety took place while travel across all modes

of transportation increased substantially. The success of safety

programs is especially visible on our highways. The fatality

rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for highway

traffic crashes (which constitute more than 90 percent of all

transportation-related fatalities annually) has been reduced by more

than half. The fatality rate went from 3.4 in 1975 to 1.5 in 1999

(figure 3-2), while the VMT nearly doubled during the same period

[USDOT NHTSA 2000].

USDOT has set specific targets for the next few years to improve

transportation safety. These include President Clinton’s goal to

reduce child fatalities in highway traffic crashes by 25 percent by

2005, Vice President Gore’s initiative to reduce the U.S. commercial

air carrier fatal crash rate by 80 percent by 2007, and the USDOT’s goals to reduce highway

fatalities by 20 percent by 2008 and commercial truck-related fatalities by 50 percent by 2010.

Specific rail safety [USDOT OST and FRA 1996], transit safety [USDOT FTA 2000], maritime

safety [USDOT 1999], and pipeline safety [USDOT RSPA 2000a] initiatives also are in place.
3-2

Note: For 1975, 1980, and 1985, there may be some overlap in fatality numbers between various modes.

The overlaps may affect 1 percent of data and would not impact the shape of the graphic. 1998 numbers

are based on preliminary BTS estimates.

Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation

Statistics 1999 (Washington, DC: April 1999), Table 3-1, page 203.

Total Fatalities in All Modes of Transportation: 1975-98

Figure 3-1

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Number of fatalities

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Transportation Fatalities by Mode: 1998 and 1999

Table 3-1

Fatalities by mode

Highway 41,501 41,345

Percent change from previous year -1.29 -0.30

Recreational Boating 813 773

Percent change from previous year -0.97 -4.92

General Aviation 621 622

Percent change from previous year -5.91 0.16

Railroad 577 530

Percent change from previous year -4.15 -8.15

Highway-Rail Grade Crossing 431 402

Percent change from previous year -6.51 -6.73

Transit (1997-1998)* 275 286

Percent change from previous year 4.17 4.00

Commercial Maritime Transportation** 107 154

Percent change from previous year -30.52 43.93

Pipeline 18 26

Percent change from previous year 80.00 44.44

1998 1999

Sources: Data compiled from various government agencies as cited in the U.S. Department of

Transporation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics 1999,

table 3-1, available at http://www.bts.gov/ntda/nts/nts.html, and the U.S. Department of

Transportation, 1999 Performance Report/2001 Performance Plan, available at http://

www.dot.gov/ost/ost_temp/. Preliminary highway data for 1999 are from the U.S. Department

of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, personal communication,

October 2000.

 *1999 transit data are unavailable.

**1999 data are preliminary and subject to change as state and local jurisdictions close fatal

accident cases.

Note: Summing the numbers in the table will not result in a correct count for all fatalities

because some are double counted.
3-3

As we start this new century, the United States has one of the safest transportation systems in

the world. New strategies are being developed to continue the success of the last quarter

century as the returns from past programs near saturation. In the decades to come, we will

strive to make our transportation system even safer by being visionary and vigilant and by

using new technology that complements laws, regulations, and enforcement measures.

Human error is a leading contributor to transportation-related safety problems, and research

in understanding the human factors appears to be one of the key areas for future emphasis.

The National Science and Technology Council’s National Transportation Science and Technology Strategy highlights human performance and behavior as one of the research areas that

could dramatically transform transportation in the coming years. The USDOT, through its

multimodal Human Performance Coordination Committee, has set specific goals and is

leading the effort to make the transportation system safer by promoting research and development in this field (box 3-1).

In March 1999, the USDOT hosted the first-ever National Transportation Safety Conference

and brought together the entire transportation safety community across all transportation

modes. At this conference, the safety community adopted the motto “safety is a promise we

make and keep together” and identified 10 top goals and objectives that led to the creation of a

National Safety Action Plan. These action goals are held together by a collaborative leadership effort to mobilize the public and private sectors to:

1. promote and require use of safety equipment in all transportation modes,

2. promote a culture of safety for all transportation modes and the population,

3. increase research of performance factors across all transportation modes,

 4. adopt a federal uniform law of 0.08 percent blood alcohol concentration for drivers and a

zero tolerance level for truckers,

5. increase funding to support enforcement of existing transportation laws and regulations,

6. maximize existing safety partnerships,

Motor Vehicle Crash Fatality Rate Per 100 Million Vehicle-Miles Traveled: 1975-99

(Annual rates)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety

Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-2 Fatality rate

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Preliminary
3-4

Box 3-1

7. do a better job of data collection and reporting across all jurisdictions,

8. implement fatigue management practices,

9. increase use of technology to improve safety in all transportation modes, and

10. improve international safety cooperation.

Since the conference, this collaborative effort has yielded key improvements in addressing

safety. In October 2000, President Clinton signed into law a national impaired driving

standard of 0.08 blood alcohol concentration. This will reduce drunk driving on the nation’s

roads and save lives. Together we have taken steps to improve transportation safety data for

strategic and operational decision, to develop and use advanced safety technologies, and to

fund the enforcement of transportation-related laws and regulations. In addition to the top 10

goals, the USDOT has major programs to address human-performance related safety issues.

Human Performance Factors

Human performance-related problems play a significant role in the safety of U.S. transportation

systems. Because 70 to 90 percent of transportation crashes involve human error, reducing or

mitigating these human errors can have a significant impact on associated human, environmental,

and financial costs.

The USDOT has established a multimodal Human Factors Coordinating Committee (HFCC) as the

focal point for human factors issues within the Department. The HFCC’s responsibilities include

developing and implementing a national strategic agenda for human factors research in transportation and serving as a human factors information resource to the transportation community. The

HFCC facilitates the implementation of human factors elements of the USDOT Strategic Plan and

supports the activities of the USDOT Research and Technology Coordinating Council as well as the

National Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Technology and its Subcommittee on

Transportation R&D.

“We need to employ human factors expertise in the design, development, evaluation and use of

transportation technologies and systems to ensure that we do not exceed the limits of human

performance, and that we use the full capabilities of the human. We compromise the capabilities of technologies when we fail to consider human performance issues associated with their

use. We need transportation systems that adapt to humans instead of humans adapting to

them.”

Rodney E. Slater

Secretary, U.S. Department of Transportation

Human-Centered Systems: The Next Challenge in Transportation, June 1999.

A heightened awareness of the role of human performance and behavior issues in transportation

safety is occurring at a time when a variety of new technologies are being developed and introduced into transportation systems to enhance their capabilities. The major areas of human factorsrelated concerns associated with transportation systems include:

• fatigue and workload,

• hours of service,

• training and certification,

• automation,

• passenger security,

• aging and mobility,

• information overload,

• substance abuse, and

• adequate staffing. continued on next page
3-5

Box 3-1 continued

The USDOT human factors coordinated program is integrated and synergistic and incorporates the

following elements:

• modal specific — each mode will continue to conduct focused, applied programs designed

to support their unique needs.

• cross-modal — new initiatives will sponsor broadly applicable projects that complement the

modal programs and can be tailored for use by the modes.

• interagency — all of the USDOT’s human factors research programs will leverage the

resources of other federal agencies.

The human factors research program supports long-term national transportation goals to:

• ensure safer, more efficient, and more productive transportation products and services;

• provide reliable, safe, dependable transportation systems that will enable efficient U.S.

industries to achieve or maintain world-class competitiveness;

• improve the integration of national transportation resources to provide “seamless”

transportation to customers using multiple modes; and

• provide mobility for diverse populations and ensure the accessibility of transportation

technologies and services.

Within the broad framework of human-factors research, each of the modal agencies have their

own programs. The Federal Aviation Administration human factors program conducts research to

support the development and implementation of equipment, training, and procedures that enhance

the safety and efficiency of National Airspace System operations. The U.S. Coast Guard plan

focuses on safety issues and organizational design. At the Maritime Administration, the focus is on

productivity and competitiveness through safe, pollution-free construction and operations. The

Federal Highway Administration, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, and the National

Highway Traffic Safety Administration focus on regulation, achievement of crash and injury

reduction, and improved mobility for all citizens. The Federal Transit Administration is focusing on

education for both transit agency managers and employees on the dangers and long-term expense

and consequences of fatigue. The Federal Railway Administration program conducts research on

railroad operating practices, railroad system design, and grade crossings to improve the overall

safety of railroad operations, with a particular emphasis on reducing railroad employee fatigue.

Some representative systems being developed as a part of this research effort are collision

avoidance systems, development and application of technology to measure driver fitness, fatigue

research, an intelligent vehicle initiative, flight deck human factors, designs to accommodate aging

drivers, and implementation of piloting navigation aids.

Projects under the various human factors initiatives are conducted in partnership with other federal

agencies such as the Department of Defense and the National Aeronautics and Space

Administration, as well as, where appropriate, with academia and industry. The key is to conduct

research that will lead to a transportation system that adapts to the human, as opposed to the

current system that requires the human to adapt to it. By working together, federal agencies and

nongovernmental organizations can enjoy the synergy and economies of scale that make the most

effective use of research and development efforts in the pursuit of answers to the nation’s most

pressing transportation safety and efficiency problems.

continued on next page
3-6

The USDOT human factors research initiative is developing advanced technologies to mitigate

human error and upgrade skills specifically for new operators and older individuals through the

application of advanced instructional technology. The overall goal of this initiative is to reduce

transportation incidents by as much as one-third by the year 2020 by focusing on two critical

areas:

• managing operator fatigue to sustain alertness; and

• upgrading operator abilities and skills, especially those related to recognizing and

responding to imminent crash threats.

Specifically, the key elements of the coordinated program are two new multiagency human

performance and behavior initiatives relating to fatigue detection and alertness enhancement—the

Operator Fatigue Management (OFM) Initiative and Advanced Instructional Technology (AIT)

Initiative. The strategic goal of the OFM is to reduce the economic impact from fatigue-related

transportation injuries, fatalities, and property and environmental damage or loss by one-third

within 20 years of the implementation and application of OFM findings, products, practices, and

systems. The desired outcome of the AIT is to reduce the rate of motor vehicle crashes, deaths, and

injuries among operators who participate by 33 percent within 20 years. This will be accomplished

by using AIT techniques to enhance vehicle operator skills, decisionmaking, and safety-related

attitudes.

Attention to human-centered technologies in transportation will contribute to U.S. leadership in

transportation products and services. Currently, the United States is a leader in systems integration

technologies, which will be key to achieving a competitive edge in the future. By linking our strength

in systems integration to human performance, the “human-centered systems” concept will

contribute to the commercial success of U.S. transportation systems.

Highway Safety

When National Transportation Trends and Choices was

issued in 1977, the legislative framework and funding for

highway safety improvement programs had already been

initiated by passage of the Highway Safety Acts of 1966,

1970, and 1973. The 1970 Act also established a new

agency: the National Highway Traffic Safety

Administration (NHTSA) under the USDOT, which along

with other USDOT administrations (Federal Highway

Administration, the new Federal Motor Carrier Safety

Administration, Federal Transit Administration, and

Federal Railroad Administration) provides leadership in

promoting highway safety. In the last 25 years, new

programs have been developed and safety on our nation’s highways has improved owing to a

combination of efforts by government regulatory agencies, the transportation research

community, vehicle manufacturers, law enforcement agencies, and the public.

NHTSA’s preliminary estimates show that 41,345 people were killed in highway crashes in

1999—3,180 fewer than in 1975 (figure 3-3). Figure 3-4 provides a comparison of fatalities by

state for 1975 and 1998. The reduction in fatality rate per 100 million VMT (as shown in

figure 3-2) since 1975 saved an estimated 46,000 lives in 1998 alone, and an estimated

479,000 lives since 1975 (figure 3-5).

“One of the most successful

governmental efforts to protect

the public is in the area of auto

safety. Hundreds of thousands

of lives have been saved, thanks

to laws requiring safety features

such as bumpers, seatbelts, and

airbags.”

President William J. Clinton

Radio Address to the Nation

Feb. 27, 1999

Box 3-1 continued
3-7

Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities: 1975-98 (Annual totals)

Figure 3-3

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,

Traffic Safety Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Preliminary

Number of fatalities

Although highway crash fatality rates have declined, new strategies are being developed to

provide even further reductions. In this context, some of the major issues that need to be

addressed within the broad framework of improving highway safety include:

1. crash characteristics (single-vehicle run-off-the-road crashes, vehicle rollover and size

compatibility in multivehicle collisions, and pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities);

2. behavioral characteristics (impaired driving; speeding; aggressive driving; driver

fatigue; and use of safety belts, child restraints, and motorcycle helmets);

3. demographic characteristics (younger and older drivers);

4. vehicle safety characteristics (vehicle crashworthiness, crash avoidance standards,

and air bags); and

5. road characteristics (highway speed limits and safer roads).
3-8

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Total Traffic Fatalities: 1975 and 1998

Figure 3-4

9.24 - 19.99

20 - 34.99

35 - 49.99

50 - 64.99

65 - 75.5

Rates

1975

1998
3-9

Total Fatalities in Motor Vehicle Crashes by Type of Crash: 1998

Table 3-2

Drivers/occupants killed in single-vehicle crashes

Drivers/occupants killed in two-vehicle crashes

Drivers/occupants killed in more than two-vehicle crashes

Pedestrians killed in single-vehicle crashes

Bicyclists killed in single-vehicle crashes

Pedestrians/bicyclists killed in multiple-vehicle crashes

Others/unknown

Total

16,671

15,724

2,964

4,795

737

449

131

41,471

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety

Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Crash Characteristics

Single-Vehicle Run-Off-the-Road Crashes: In 1998, 40 percent of traffic crash fatalities were

vehicle occupants (including drivers) killed in single-vehicle crashes (table 3-2). This includes approximately 15,000 people who are killed each year as a result of run-off-the-road

collisions with fixed objects, such as trees, embankments, guardrails, and utility poles.

According to NHTSA, between 1974 and 1994, as many as 28 percent of all highway traffic

fatalities can be attributed to crashes with fixed objects [USDOT NHTSA 1998d]. In rural

areas, these crashes accounted for 66 percent of all traffic fatalities [USDOT FHWA 2000a].

Key factors in these collisions included driving errors associated with inattention, excessive

speeding, and evasive maneuvers.

Improvements in freeway

ramp and curve designs, use

of “rumble strips,” state-ofthe-art road features, (i.e.,

breakaway devices, barriers,

and crash cushions), highly

visible reflective signs and

markings, and variable

message signs are being used

to reduce the numbers of these

crashes and their severity.

Several advanced technologies (discussed later in

box 3-6), such as night vision

enhancement and driver

drowsiness detection systems

might also be valuable in

reducing single-vehicle

crashes and fatalities.

Highway Fatalities and Estimated Lives Saved (based on 1975 fatality rate per 100 million VMT): 1975-98

Figure 3-5

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998 (Washington, DC:

1999); U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Various years). Number of lives

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Lives saved

Fatalities
3-10

Vehicle Rollover and Size Compatibility Issues: Since the early 1980s, the category of

vehicles referred to as light trucks and vans (LTVs) has grown dramatically. The vehicles in

this category include pickup trucks, vans, minivans, truck-based station wagons, and sport

utility vehicles (SUVs). New LTV sales are growing at a compound annual growth rate of

8 percent, while the overall vehicle fleet is growing at a rate of 2 percent. These popular

vehicles now represent 34 percent of the total fleet on U.S. highways [USDOT NHTSA 1998c].

There are two characteristics of LTVs that can cause fatalities in traffic crashes: propensity to

roll over and size compatibility. For example, SUVs are twice as likely to roll over as passenger cars, increasing the likelihood of occupant ejection and fatal injury. This contributes to the

average rate of 98 rollover fatalities per million registered vehicles for SUVs compared to

47 such fatalities per million registered vehicles for all vehicle types.

Compatibility issues involve differences in vehicle size, weight, and geometry in multivehicle

crashes, which can put occupants of cars at greater risk in an LTV-car crash than in a crash

involving two or more cars. For example, research at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute shows that when an SUV strikes a passenger car in a frontal crash,

occupants of the car are five times as likely to have fatal injuries as the occupants of the SUV;

in cars that suffer side impacts, fatalities are 30 times higher for car occupants [USDOT

NHTSA 1998c].

Pedestrian and Bicyclist Safety: Pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities in motor vehicle-related

crashes declined between 1975 and 1998 from a combined total of more than 8,500 to about

6,000 each year (figure 3-6 and box 3-1). Ninety percent of these fatalities were pedestrians. In

fact, more pedestrians are killed each year than the combined fatalities from air, sea, and train

incidents. In 1998, approximately 5,220 pedestrians were killed and 77,000 injured in traffic

crashes [USDOT NHTSA 1999b]. In the same year, there were 761 bicyclist fatalities. Table 3-3

lists some of the major factors involved in pedestrian fatalities in 1998, and table 3-4 lists

major factors involved in bicyclist fatalities.

Pedestrian and Bicyclist Fatalities in Motor Vehicle Crashes: 1975-98

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-6 Number of fatalities

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000
3-11

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety

Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Table 3-4

Factors

Riding, playing, etc., in roadway

Failure to yield right of way

Improper crossing of roadway or intersection

Failure to obey (e.g., signs, control devices, officers)

Operating without required equipment

Erratic, reckless, careless, or negligent operation

Not visible

Failure to keep in proper lane or running off road

Making improper turn

Inattentive (talking, eating, etc.)

Driving on wrong side of road

Failing to have lights on when required

Improper entry/exit from trafficway

Improper lane change

Other factors

None reported

Unknown

Total

167

163

89

47

38

36

32

29

27

25

16

15

11

10

74

216

12

761

21.9

21.4

11.7

6.2

5.0

4.7

4.2

3.8

3.5

3.3

2.1

2.0

1.4

1.3

9.7

28.4

1.6

100

Number Percent

Factors in Bicyclist Fatalities: 1998

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic

Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Table 3-3

Factors

Walking, playing, working, etc., in roadway

Improper crossing of roadway or intersection

Failure to yield right-of-way

Darting or running into road

Not visible

Inattentive (talking, eating, etc.)

Physical impairment

Failure to obey traffic signs, signals, or officer

Emotional (e.g., depressed, angry, disturbed)

Getting on/off/in/out of transport vehicle

Blackout

Nonmotorist pushing vehicle

Other causes

None reported

Unknown

Total

1,589

1,517

709

649

414

131

70

67

25

22

12

8

106

1,271

105

5,220

30.4

29.1

13.6

12.4

7.9

2.5

1.3

1.3

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.2

2.0

24.3

2.0

100

Number Percent

Factors in Pedestrian Fatalities: 1998
3-12

Box 3-3

Pedestrian and Bicycle Trips

According to the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), walking trips declined from

9.3 percent to 5.5 percent of all personal trips between 1977 and 1995, while bicycle trips

increased from 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent during the same period [Pickrell & Schimek 1997].

Assuming the average trip length for pedestrians has remained the same, risk to pedestrians may

not have actually decreased.

Pedestrians aged 25 to 44 suffered the highest number of fatalities, while for bicyclists, those

10 to 15 years old were the most vulnerable [USDOT NHTSA 1999b]. One significant factor in

pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities is time of day—most pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities occur

between 6:00 PM and 9:00 PM when visibility is low [USDOT NHTSA 1999b].

The Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) enhances integration and project

funding for pedestrian and bicycle safety. It also requires states and metropolitan planning

organizations to include bicyclists and pedestrians in their long-range transportation plans.

Behavioral Characteristics

Impaired Driving: Alcohol-related death rates were not compiled prior to 1982. That year,

alcohol (Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) _ 0.01) was involved in 57 percent of all

highway-related fatalities (figure 3-7). By 1999, this number dropped to 38 percent. In actual

numbers, 15,794 people died in alcohol-related crashes in 1999 [USDOT 2000], compared to

25,165 such deaths in 1982 [USDOT NHTSA 1999a].

Improved state and local education programs; stiffer enforcement, including adoption of the

.08 blood alcohol content law by 18 states (figure 3-8); higher minimum drinking age; and

reduced tolerance for drinking and driving all have been major factors in reducing alcoholrelated deaths1

. However, alcohol is still the single largest factor in highway-related traffic

fatalities. See figure 3-9 for alcohol-related crash fatalities by state in 1992 and 1998.

Also, in 1998, 18 percent of passenger car drivers, 20 percent of LTV operators, 1 percent of

large truck operators, and 31 percent of motorcycle operators involved in fatal crashes were

legally intoxicated (BAC equal to or greater than 0.10) [USDOT NHTSA 1999a]. Alcohol

intoxication also poses a safety risk to pedestrians (see box 3-2).

Alcohol Intoxication and Pedestrian Fatalities

In 1998, of the total number of pedestrians (14 years of age or older) killed in crashes, 33 percent were intoxicated. Also, of the total number of pedestrians killed in traffic crashes, 46 percent

died in alcohol-related crashes where either the driver of the vehicle or the pedestrian, or both,

were under the influence of alcohol.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts

1998, DOT HS 808 956, available at http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/people/ncsa/pdf/Overview98.pdf, as of July 7,

2000.

By age group, 21- to 34-year-olds comprised the highest percentage of intoxicated drivers

involved in fatal crashes (figure 3-10). In 1975, the minimum drinking age for all alcoholic

beverages was less than 21 years of age in 26 states (figure 3-11), and in 11 others, beer and

wine could be bought at age 18. Such variations created “blood borders” as teenagers drove

to neighboring states to drink and then attempted to drive home intoxicated.

Box 3-2

>

1 Any state that does not adopt a BAC of 0.08 by year 2004 will lose a portion of federal highway funds—2

percent in 2004, 4 percent in 2005, 6 percent in 2006, and 8 percent in 2007.
3-13

Alcohol-Related Fatalities in Motor Vehicle Crashes: 1982-98 (Annual totals)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-7

Alcohol-Related Fatalities as a Proportion of all Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities Number of fatalities Percent of total

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1982 1985 1990 1995 1998

1982 1985 1990 1995 1998

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

(NHTSA), Digest of State Alcohol-Related Safety Legislation (Washington, DC); and USDOT, NHTSA,

Traffic Safety Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) Limits: 2000

BAC Limits

0.08

0.1

None

Figure 3-8
3-14

Figure 3-9

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts

(Washington, DC: 1982 and 1999).

Alcohol-Related Traffic Fatalities: 1982 and 1998

Number of fatalities

1998

1982

21 - 249

250 - 499

500 - 899

900 - 1,999

2,000 - 2,888
3-15

Legal Drinking Age: 1975

Figure 3-11

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Alcohol and

Highway Safety Laws: A National Overview (Washington, DC: 1979).

18

19

20

21

21 for liqour

18 for beer

Ages

Drivers in Fatal Crashes with a Blood Alcohol Concentration of 0.10, by Age: 1998

Note: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) estimates alcohol involvement when

alcohol test results are unknown.

Figure 3-10

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, NHTSA, Traffic Safety Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999). Percent of drivers

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

<16 16-20 21-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >74

Age group

_>
3-16

Under TEA-21, some portion of federal highway funding was restricted until states adopted a

statute that not only prevented drivers under the age of 21 from obtaining alcoholic beverages,

but also prevented persons of any age from making alcoholic beverages available to those under

21 [23 CFR Part 1313]. As a result, today, all 50 states and the District of Columbia have set the

minimum drinking age at 21. NHTSA estimates that laws raising the minimum age for drinking have altogether saved 18,220 lives since 1975 [USDOT NHTSA 1998a].

Speeding and Aggressive Driving: Speeding—exceeding the posted speed limit or driving too

fast for conditions—is one of the most pervasive factors contributing to traffic crashes. Speeding is a factor in 33 percent of all fatal crashes, and this percentage has remained consistent

from 1993 to 1998 [USDOT NHTSA 1999c].

In 1998, 12,477 lives were lost in crashes where speeding was cited as a factor; the economic

cost to society of these crashes was estimated by NHTSA to be $27.7 billion [USDOT NHTSA

1999c]. Collector and local roads have the highest speed-related fatality rates, both in urban

and rural areas, while Interstate highways have the lowest speeding fatality rates. There also is

a strong link between alcohol intoxication and speeding; 47 percent of speeding drivers between 21 and 24 years of age involved in fatal crashes were alcohol impaired [USDOT NHTSA

1999c].

Aggressive driving—when individuals commit a combination of moving traffic offenses that

endanger other persons or property—became a safety issue in the 1990s, and it threatens to

become a major public safety concern for the motoring public and law enforcement agencies in

the 21st century. Some behaviors typically associated with aggressive driving include exceeding the posted speed limit, following too closely, making erratic or unsafe lane changes, improperly signaling lane changes, and failing to obey traffic control devices (e.g., stop signs, yield

signs, traffic signals, and railroad grade cross signals). NHTSA calls the act of running a red

light one of the most dangerous forms of aggressive driving. Increasing travel times due to

congestion on our roads, especially in large cities, is considered to be one of the major triggers of

this type of behavior. Exact numbers on fatalities and injuries caused by aggressive driving are

not available at this time, but NHTSA is working toward collecting this information [USDOT

NHTSA 1998b].

Driver Fatigue: In recent years, driver fatigue and drowsiness may have been a factor in

56,000 crashes annually, resulting in 1,550 fatalities and 40,000 injuries a year [USDOT NHTSA

1998e]. The causes of driver fatigue have been attributed to certain sleep disorders (sleep apnea,

insomnia, narcolepsy) or just lack of sufficient rest. NHTSA is undertaking public education

campaigns targeted at high-risk groups to reduce these types of crashes. FHWA and NHTSA

also are cooperating in laboratory and field research to study driver drowsiness detection

devices in vehicles, which can alert drivers to impending crash situations

(see box 3-7, Advanced Vehicle Safety and Control Systems).

Safety Belt Use: Safety belt use is the most important measure vehicle

occupants can take to protect themselves in the event of a crash. When

used, safety belts reduce the risk of fatal injury to front-seat passenger car

occupants by 45 percent. For light truck occupants, safety belts reduce the

risk of fatal injury by 60 percent [USDOT NHTSA 1998e]. From 1975 to

1998, as many as 112,000 lives may have been saved through the use of

safety belts, including 11,000 in 1998 alone [USDOT NHTSA 1999b]

(figure 3-12).

Use rates are not available for 1975, but 1982 surveys found that only

11 percent of vehicle occupants used safety belts [USDOT NHTSA 1983].

Today, the reported safety belt use rate is 79 percent in the 14 states and the

District of Columbia with primary enforcement laws and 62 percent in the

36 states with secondary enforcement laws [NSC 1999]. Primary enforcement laws permit law enforcement officers to stop a vehicle and write a

citation whenever they observe a violation of the safety belt law; secondary enforcement allows

a citation to be given only after a vehicle is stopped for another traffic violation [NSC 1999]. The

USDOT has been carrying out mobilization efforts in collaboration with nongovernmental

USDOT, NHTSA
3-17

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-12

Estimated Number of Lives Saved Each Year by Use of Safety Belts: 1975-98

(Annual totals) Lives saved

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Key Provisions of Safety Belt Use Laws: 1998

Figure 3-13

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety

Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Enforcement*

Year law took effect Primary

Secondary

No enforcement

* With secondary enforcement, police officers are permitted to write a citation only after a vehicle is 

 stopped for some other traffic violation. With primary enforcement, police officers can stop 

 vehicles and write citations whenever they observe violations of safety belt laws.

organizations to encourage the use of seat belts. As a part of this effort, in November 2000,

Mothers Against Drunk Driving became involved in the Operation ABC Mobilization:

America Buckles Up Children. Figure 3-13 shows current seat belt use laws in each state.
3-18

Estimated Number of Lives Saved Each Year by Use of Child Restraints: 1975-98 (Annual totals)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-14

Child Restraints: Standards for child restraint systems in motor vehicles were set in 1971, but

major changes were made in 1981. Child restraint systems have been shown to reduce fatal

injuries by 69 percent for infants less than 1 year old and by 47 percent for children up to

4 years old [NSC 1999]. All states have had child restraint use laws in effect since 1985, but

these laws vary.

The use of child restraint systems has saved an estimated total of 4,193 lives since 1975

(figure 3-14). According to NHTSA, 173 additional lives could have been saved in 1998 if all

children less than five years of age were properly restrained in appropriate safety seats

[USDOT NHTSA n.d. (a)].

Motorcycle Helmet Standards and State Helmet Use Laws: Motorcyclists have the highest

fatality rate of all motorists on the roads. This rank has remained unchanged since 1975,

although their fatality rate has decreased from 56.7 to 20 per 100 million VMT. The fatal crash

involvement rate for motorcycles also is the highest—22.7 per 100 million VMT in 1998,

compared to a rate of 1.9 for passenger cars, 2.2 for light trucks, and 2.5 for large trucks

[USDOT NHTSA n.d. (b)].

NHTSA performance standards for motorcycle helmets went into effect in 1974. In 1998,

22 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico required all motorcycle riders to use

helmets. In another 24 states, only riders under 18 years of age are required to wear helmets,

while 3 states have no laws regarding helmet use (figure 3-15).

A 1998 NHTSA survey estimated the use of helmets at 67 percent nationwide [USDOT

NHTSA n.d. (b)]. Previous NHTSA surveys have shown helmet use at nearly 100 percent in

states with universal helmet use laws and as low as 34 percent in states with limited or no

helmet use laws. The use of helmets saved the lives of an estimated 500 motorcyclists in 1998

(figure 3-16). An estimated 307 additional lives might have been saved that year if all motorcyclists used helmets. The use of motorcycle helmets reduced the risk of fatal injuries to

motorcyclists by an estimated 29 percent [USDOT NHTSA n.d. (b)]. Lives saved

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

0

100

200

300

400
3-19

Figure 3-15

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Motorcycle Helmet Use Laws: 1998

Required By Law

Year law took effect

Under age 15

Under age 18

Under age 19

Under age 21

All riders

Law repealed

Other

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Estimated Number of Lives Saved Each Year by Use of Motorcycle Helmets: 1975-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 3-16

1975

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1977 1989 1991 1993 1995 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1997 1998

Lives saved
3-20

Demographic Characteristics (age)

Increasing numbers of younger and older drivers—the highest risk segments of the population—will create a new highway safety challenge in the 21st century. In 1998, 40 percent of

the drivers who died in crashes were in one of these two age groups—23 percent in the 16-to24-year age group and 17 percent were in the 65-and-older age group [USDOT NHTSA

1999a]. The traffic crash fatality rate per 100,000 population is the highest in the 16-to-24-year

age group, followed by those over age 74 (figure 3-17).

The expanding U.S. population—a 23 percent increase is expected by 2025 [Hollmann et al.

2000]—will lead to an increase in the number of drivers on the road, and changing demographics in the United States will result in a shift of drivers from younger to older age groups.

The 17 million licensed drivers 70 years old and older in 1999 [USDOT NHTSA 1999a] could

increase to as many as 25 million by 2025 [Slater 2000]. Therefore, we must take steps to

address the needs of this growing sector of our population.

Older Drivers and Technologies

As the “ baby boom” generation ages, the safety of older drivers will become an even greater

concern. Although older people use automobiles less than younger ones, they are nonetheless

highly auto-dependent. Among urban people 75 to 84 years of age, 90 percent of all trips are by

automobile, and for urban people 85 years and older, 86 percent of all trips are by automobile.

In rural areas, the comparable dependency figures are 94 and 83 percent, respectively. The

automobile is the dominant mode of travel among older people, and it likely will remain so.

In the future, we may expect that seniors will tend to age in place as they do today. Many will stay

in their existing residences in suburban, exurban, or rural neighborhoods rather than relocate to

retirement communities. They will, therefore, be highly dependent on the private automobile; and

as they get older, driving will likely become more difficult. Many older people are aware of their

limitations and reduce their driving in difficult circumstances or voluntarily discontinue it. As a

result, their incidence of automobile crashes per licensed driver is less than for other groups (see

figure 3-18).

Older people are less able to survive the trauma of crashes (see figure 3-19). When they are

victims of automobile crashes, people over 80 are four times more likely to die than 20-year-olds.

With many more older adults driving in the future, the fatalities for this population segment will

probably climb faster than for the overall population. This scenario presents a formidable challenge for future transportation managers, but opportunities abound to counter this trend by making

highways and automobiles safer and providing better options for other transportation services,

such as public transportation and paratransit.

Highway engineers have begun updating standards for signs, control devices, and highway and

intersection designs to provide increased consideration for the needs of an aging population. In

future vehicles, a number of new technologies should become operational that will protect and aid

older drivers, particularly vehicle collision and crash avoidance warning systems, speech navigation, and information and warning systems. But designs also must be found to make future

vehicles more crashworthy for older, more fragile drivers and passengers.

Box 3-4
3-21

Vehicle Characteristics

NHTSA sets safety standards for all motor vehicles. These standards are designed to improve

vehicle safety in the event of a crash (crashworthiness standards) and to improve the vehicle

so drivers can better avoid collisions (crash avoidance standards). Over the last three decades, NHTSA has set crashworthiness standards covering a wide range of issues, including:

side impact protection,

vehicle rollover stability,

roof crush resistance,

air bags,

safety belts,

fuel system integrity,

head restraints,

Crash avoidance standards have included:

antilock brakes,

center high-mounted stop lamps,

heavy truck conspicuity,

This is just a partial list of the changes implemented to protect vehicle occupants and others

who use the roadways. NHTSA also conducts crash tests on vehicles under the New Car

Assessment Program. This program was initiated in 1979 and provides consumers with

crashworthiness ratings for new model vehicles. Together these regulations and programs

have helped contribute to the dramatic decline in fatality rates since 1975, preventing thousands of fatalities and injuries every year.

Persons Killed per 100,000 Population in Highway Crashes by Age Group: 1998

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-17 Rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

<5 5-9 10-15 16-20 21-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >74

Age group

upper interior protection,

advanced windshield glazing,

school bus safety,

child safety seats,

flammability of interior materials,

heavy truck underride, and

advanced air bags.

electronic brake controls,

heavy truck splash and spray, and

school bus visibility issues (i.e., mirrors and

signal arms).
3-22

Note: Data not included for the District of Columbia.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Facts

1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-18

Crash Rate per 100,000 Licensed Drivers by Age and Gender: 1998

Note: Data not included for the District of Columbia.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety

Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-19

Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT by Age: 1996

16-20 30-49 60-64 65-69 70-74

Crash rate

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

21-24 25-29 50-54 55-59

Male

Female

75-79 80-84 85+

Age group

<_16 17 18 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Fatality rate

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Age group
3-23

Aside from safety belts, perhaps the most well-known vehicle safety feature is air bags.

Automobile manufacturers sold air bags as optional equipment for many years before they

became required equipment for cars in 1997 and for multipurpose passenger vehicles, trucks,

and buses in 1998. NHTSA estimates that air bags saved 3,706 lives from 1975 through 1998,

including 1,043 in 1998 (figure 3-20).

Air bags have been at the center of controversy due to the deaths of vehicle drivers and

passengers from air bags that deployed in a small number of low-speed crashes. Through

April 1, 1999, 78 children and 60 adults have been killed by air bags in such crashes

[Insurance Institute 2000]. Children under 12 have been most vulnerable. In most of these

cases, the children were in rear-facing child restraints, improperly placed in front seats, or

were unrestrained; most of the adults were unrestrained.

NHTSA has adopted new

requirements, to be phased in

over the next few years, to

minimize the risk of injury

from air bags. Vehicle manufacturers are developing smart

air bags using microsensor

technologies (crash severity

sensors, occupant weight and

proximity sensors, and safety

belt and seat-position sensors)

to adjust the air bag deployment rate during a crash to

reduce injuries.

Additionally, some popular

models of vehicles are now

fitted with side air bags to

reduce the risk of injury from

side impact crashes.

As part of its new car assessment program, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

uses a 35-mph frontal impact test to measure the crashworthiness of the 1999 Volkswagen Beetle.

USDOT, NHTSA

Estimated Number of Lives Saved Each Year by Use of

Air Bags: 1987-98 (Annual totals)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety

Administration, Traffic Safety Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-20 Lives saved

1987 1990 1995 1998

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200
3-24

Road Characteristics

Safer Roads: Since 1975, FHWA leadership, advocacy, and other programs have provided

progressively higher safety standards and guidance for road design, construction, and

maintenance practices, which have been adopted by highway authorities nationwide. All

federal-aid projects are required to improve or maintain safety. Examples of road infrastructure safety improvements to reduce crash impacts include installing or upgrading breakaway

poles, safety barriers, and crash attenuators. Examples of road infrastructure safety improvements to reduce crashes include rumble strips, travel lanes, shoulders, roadside clear zones,

and traffic control devices.

Evaluations of the two special programs, the Federal-aid Hazard Elimination Program and

Rail-Highway Crossing Program, suggest that these two safety programs contributed to

preventing 58,000 deaths and 1.1 million nonfatal injuries between 1974 and 1995 [USDOT

FHWA 1996].

New technologies being incorporated into the road infrastructure for safety include improved

safety monitoring and driver advisory systems, such as changeable message signs and radio,

high visability signs and markings, new and improved materials and designs for crashworthy devices and traffic control devices.

Speed Limits: In 1973, Congress set a National Maximum Speed Limit (NMSL) of 55 miles

per hour (mph) as a temporary energy conservation measure. States that failed to enforce the

speed limit faced highway-funding sanctions [USDOT FHWA 2000b]. Safety advocates, citing

a decrease of 9,000 highway fatalities during the first year, backed the speed limit as a safety

measure. It became permanent in 1974.

As the memories of the gas crisis of the 1970s faded, pressure began to build, especially in

western states, for the repeal of the 55-mph speed limit. In 1987, the federal government gave

states the option of an NMSL of 65 mph on rural Interstate highways and certain rural

freeways without risking the loss of federal highway funds. In December 1995, the NMSL

was repealed completely, and full authority to set speed limits on public roads was returned to

states and local communities.

Since 1995, all states except the District of Columbia and Hawaii have raised the speed limit

on some or all of their Interstate highways. Figure 3-21 shows current maximum rural

Interstate speed limit by state. NHTSA is collecting travel speed and crash data to determine

if there is conclusive evidence of an association between speed limits and crashes.

Speed Management and Variable Speed Limit Technology

Speed management involves matching speed with roadway design and area characteristics. Many

factors must be taken into consideration, including type and amount of roadside development, road

design, accident experience, pedestrian presence, and weather conditions. Speed management

practices include setting realistic speed limits, traffic calming techniques, and public education.

One technology-based speed management approach is the variable speed limit (VSL), which sets

speed limits appropriate to weather and traffic conditions. VSL has been used successfully in

Europe to adjust speed limits to improve safety and traffic flow. VSL is a part of the Intelligent

Transportation System (ITS) group of technologies.

Box 3-5
3-25

Safety Data

Better Data and Safety Management Systems: Availability of better data has improved our

understanding of the causes of highway crashes and has allowed us to measure the success

of safety efforts. Safety management systems and better safety data now are used by many

states to identify safety concerns and to determine which initiatives are most beneficial in

reducing crashes.

Before 1975, it was difficult to study the causes of motor vehicle crashes because there was no

national-level database. In 1975, the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) was established

by NHTSA to create a national-level database of the most severe motor vehicle crashes, those

involving a fatality. Since then, these data have been updated and analyzed each year, factors

contributing to crashes have been studied, and improved measures have been developed.

FARS was later renamed the Fatality Analysis Reporting System.

FARS data are supplemented by another database developed by NHTSA in 1988, the National

Automotive Sampling System. This database has two components: the General Estimates

System (GES) and the Crashworthiness Data System (CDS). The GES contains data from a

nationally representative sample of law enforcement-reported crashes of all severities, including those resulting in death, injury, or property damage. The CDS database includes additional detailed information on an annual sample of approximately 5,000 law enforcementreported traffic crashes across the country, which are studied in great by crash

investigators.

The FHWA established the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS), which provides a

sample database of highway safety and road inventory data from each state. It is used to

study highway safety issues, direct research efforts, and evaluate effects of safety measures.

Figure 3-21

Maximum Rural Interstate Speed Limits: 2000

Note: Data not included for the District of Columbia.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Traffic

Safety Facts 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999); and USDOT, NHTSA, personal communication, October 2000.

Speed limit

55

65

70

75
3-26

Together, these systems provide an overall measure of highway traffic safety and are used to

identify traffic safety problems, suggest solutions, and provide a basis on which to evaluate

the effectiveness of motor vehicle safety standards and highway traffic safety initiatives.

Safety In Numbers

The Safety In Numbers project was developed in response to Secretary Slater’s 1999 National

Transportation Safety Conference, where stakeholders identified better data collection and reporting

across all jurisdictions as one of the top priorities for safety improvement.

Under this initiative, four Safety Data Workshops were organized by the Bureau of Transportation

Statistics (BTS) in September and October 1999, with a concluding national conference held in

April 2000, in Washington, D.C., to gather input and develop an action plan for improving the

quality of safety data. Organized along “modal” lines, these workshops (two surface transportation and one each for aviation and maritime transportation) brought together more than

200 stakeholders representing the diverse interests of the transportation community, such as

nonprofit organizations, associations, businesses, government (state, local, and federal), advocacy

organizations, and academia.

These workshops laid the foundation for a “ Safety Data Action Plan” with BTS as the lead USDOT

agency for improving data quality and ensuring intermodal collaboration. Key issues addressed in

this plan include improving data quality, timeliness, and relevance; developing methods for examining safety intermodally; developing data standards; increasing data accessibility and sharing; and

using technology to automate data collection and dissemination.

Keys to the Future

Over the last 25 years, the highway fatality rate has dropped steadily, reaching an all time low

of 1.5 per 100 million VMT in 1999. However, the rate of decrease has slowed in recent years,

and we are seeing “diminishing returns” on current safety improvement efforts. If the current

fatality rate is not reduced and VMT grows at the current rate of 1.96 percent annually, about

60,000 people will be killed on the highways in 2015.

In order to continue the trend of significant yearly reductions in the VMT fatality rate over the

next 25 years, greater application of safety management to our nation’s roads will be required.

It will be necessary to adapt new safety strategies and vehicle technologies to match changing

demographics and ever-increasing highway traffic. Vehicle safety also must be enhanced, and

occupants must be encouraged to take advantage of the protection provided by safety belts,

child safety seats, and motorcycle helmets.

The USDOT has targeted a 20 percent reduction in highway-related fatalities and injuries by

2008. To achieve this goal, safety strategies and advanced technologies will need to address

issues such as:

high levels of alcohol-impaired driving,

alcohol-impaired pedestrians,

failure of nearly one-third of the driving population to wear safety belts,

growing size of vehicles and safety problems due to incompatibility between large

and small vehicles,

high numbers of pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities,

highway-rail grade crossing fatalities,

special needs of the rising numbers of aged drivers,

issues relating to growing population of young drivers,

rising incidence of aggressive driving and speed-related crashes,

run-off-road crashes, and

intersection crashes.

Box 3-6
3-27

Most of these issues were highlighted during the first-ever National Transportation Safety conference hosted by the USDOT in March 1999 and subsequently

during the 2025 Visioning Session on safety. We must remain visionary and

vigilant and aggressively pursue actions that promote these strategies.

New, advanced crash-avoidance and vehicle control systems are on the verge of being introduced into the general market for all vehicle types. In the next few years, extensive deployment of these technologies is likely as they become less expensive. Some of these technologies

are presented in box 3-6.

Advanced Vehicle Safety and Control Systems

Night vision enhancement: This technology, which uses an infrared sensor behind the center of

the vehicle’s grill, detects people, animals, and moving vehicles on the road well before the vehicle’s

headlights, even high beams, can illuminate them. The image of the person, animal, or vehicle is

projected onto a black-and-white head-up display on the windshield in front of the driver.

Drowsy driver detection systems: These systems track driver alertness through observation of eye

movements and lanekeeping variation (which is a key predictor variable for detecting driver

drowsiness). Drowsy driving can be caused by a combination of sleep loss, driving when circadian

rhythms are low (early morning hours and mid-afternoon), or driving for long periods of time.

The vehicle devices alert the driver when such behavior is detected.

Adaptive cruise control: Automotive Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) is a “smart” device that

maintains a driver-selected headway interval between vehicles. ACC monitors the headway

interval, provides an audible warning, and slows the vehicle when the interval becomes dangerously narrow. Next generation or “ Intelligent” systems, once set, will automatically maintain a safe

distance, governed by throttle and brake control.

Rear-end collision avoidance: A rear-end collision occurs when safe distance is not maintained

due to a driver’s unawareness and a lack of safe distance information. Rear-end collisionavoidance systems will typically sense critical information about an impending collision, process the

information into a usable form, and present this information to the driver (or directly to the vehicle)

in a way that elicits appropriate collision avoidance action. Rear-end collision-avoidance systems

may include Driver Warning, Intelligent Cruise Control, and Automatic Control systems.

Collision notification: This is a “ Mayday” system for passenger vehicles that automatically and

reliably detects the occurrence of a crash and alerts emergency medical services (EMS), police,

and fire agencies. The primary objective of the system is to significantly reduce emergency response times for personal injury crashes by automatically assembling and transmitting a cellular

telephone message from the vehicle to local emergency agencies. The message would include the

vehicle location and crash severity data.

Intersection collision avoidance: This system consists of traffic-actuated warning signs linked to

pavement loops and a traffic signal controller to enhance driver awareness of the traffic situation

at intersections, particularly unsignalized intersections where signalizing would be prohibitively

expensive.

Vehicle stability enhancement: Two countermeasures have been identified by NHTSA to help

reduce the incidence of heavy-vehicle rollovers. The first is a Roll Stability Advisory System, which

measures the rollover stability properties of a typical tractor-semitrailer as it is operated on the

roadway and provides the driver with a graphical depiction of the vehicle’s loading condition

relative to its rollover propensity. The second countermeasure is a Rearward Amplification Suppression System that selectively applies brakes to wheels to stabilize the vehicle and thereby reduce

the incidence of rear-trailer rollover in double- and triple-trailer combination vehicles during crashavoidance steering maneuvers.

Source: Hagler Bailly, Inc., The Market for Emerging Technology Applications in Transportation: Market Analysis and

Forecast (Washington, DC: 1999).

Box 3-7
3-28

Automation of enforcement efforts—monitoring red-light running or speed-limit violations—

can help improve crash avoidance by making drivers more aware and increasing compliance

and respect for traffic control devices and traffic laws intended to prevent crashes. Further

improvements in data collection systems can provide timely information necessary to maximize the effectiveness of safety measures. Strategies relying on more accurate data about

trends can be developed to improve public services, such as emergency services, enforcement,

and hazardous materials teams.

By the year 2025, we will have made a quantum leap forward in reducing highway fatalities and injuries by dramatically decreasing the number of crashes that

occur on America’s roadways. Automated cruise control and collision avoidance

systems, including interactive systems to prevent collisions at intersections, will be

widely available. Detection systems that alert drowsy drivers or prevent the operation of a

vehicle by impaired drivers will be more widely accepted and commonly used. Automated

observation technologies will permit more effective enforcement of highway safety laws,

particularly speeding and red-light running violations, thereby substantially reduce crashes.

Improved safety data and information systems, as well as a better understanding of highway

crash causation, will ensure that infrastructure investments are targeted toward the highest

hazard locations using the most effective countermeasures available. To make the driving task

safer for an older driving population and other users, improved computer-aided highway

design—for example, next-generation high-visibility pavement designs, enhanced pavement

markings and signs, and other roadside safety hardware—will ensure that we have in place a

highway system that actively works to prevent crashes and minimizes the severity of crashes

when they may occur.

Motor Carrier Safety

A quarter century ago, the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) regulated the economic

aspects of the motor carrier industry. The FHWA had responsibility for safety regulation,

performing several thousand on-site reviews annually for carrier compliance with both

federal safety and hazardous materials regulations.

In 1975, about 15,000 carriers had authority to provide interstate transportation for hire [Hill

2000]. Economic deregulation of for-hire interstate truck and bus transportation, signed into

law in 1980 and followed by intrastate deregulation, meant that nearly anyone could begin

service anywhere. There was a flood of new entrants—mostly small carriers, creating a safety

oversight challenge for the FHWA and the states.

Between 1975 and 1998, annual VMT for large trucks more than doubled—from 81 billion

miles to 196 billion miles [USDOT FHWA 1975–1998]. Despite this increase in large-truck

VMT, both the fatality rate and total crash incident rate per 100 million VMT have decreased

for large trucks. The number of fatalities, however, has risen over the same period. In 1999,

5,203 people were killed in crashes involving large trucks compared to 4,500 in 1975.

Figure 3-22 shows the fatalities in large truck crashes from 1975 to 1998. On average, 80 percent of those killed in large-truck crashes were nonmotorists or occupants of other vehicles

involved in the crash [USDOT FMCSA 2000a].

In the mid-1970s, about 18,000 roadside driver-vehicle safety inspections were conducted

each year by a small federal field staff [Hill 2000]. In 1982, Congress enacted the Motor

Carrier Safety Assistance Program, a multimillion-dollar grant program under which states

perform roadside driver/vehicle inspections and carrier on-site compliance reviews. By 1999,

more than 2 million inspections per year were being conducted (figure 3-23) mostly by states.

Figure 3-24 shows the percent of vehicles and drivers removed from service (“out of service”)

as a result of these roadside inspections.
3-29

Number of Vehicle Inspections: 1984-99 (Annual totals)

Source: U.S. Department of

Transportation, Federal Motor

Carrier Safety Administration,

Motor Carrier Inspection Database

(Washington, DC: Various years).

Figure 3-23 Number of inspections

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1984 1990 1994 1998 1999 1986 1988 1992 1996

Fatalities in Large Truck Crashes: 1975-98 (Annual totals)

Source: U.S. Department

of Transportation, National

Highway Traffic Safety

Administration, Traffic

Safety Facts 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 3-22 Number of fatalities

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1975 1990 1996 1998 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1992 1994

Source: U.S. Department of

Transportation, Federal Motor

Carrier Safety Administration,

Motor Carrier Inspection

Database (Washington, DC:

Various years).

Figure 3-24

Out-of-Service Inspections*: 1984-99

(Annual percentage rates)

* Roadside inspections that

result in the vehicle and/or

driver being removed from

service for violating Federal

Motor Carrier Safety

Regulations or Federal

Hazardous Materials

Regulations.

1984 1990 1996 1998 1999

Percent of total inspected vehicles

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1986 1988 1992 1994

Vehicles

Drivers
3-30

By the mid-1980s, with deregulation, ease of entry, and limited safety oversight, the FHWA

requested and received authority from Congress to hire 300 additional inspectors to enforce

safety regulations [Hill 2000]. The FHWA also expanded its information systems to gather

additional safety information on all interstate motor carriers whose number had expanded to

more than 190,000 [USDOT FMCSA 2000b].

Other major safety actions quickly followed. Under a 1987 law, commercial truck and bus

drivers are prohibited from having more than one commercial driver’s license (CDL), thereby

preventing operators from circumventing driving suspensions by spreading citations among

licenses from various states. Another change was that drivers were required to pass comprehensive road tests in the vehicles they were to operate. Subsequent changes included mandatory drug and alcohol testing of commercial drivers, which began in 1990; improved medical

screening; and a 1994 ban on radar detectors in commercial vehicles.

By the late 1990s, the FHWA was able to use its data system to target high-risk carriers for onsite compliance reviews to bring them into regulatory compliance or, in the worst cases, levy

fines or even suspend operations. Most states also have adopted the Federal Motor Carrier

Safety and Hazardous Material Safety Regulation standards or have state laws comparable to

these federal standards for trucks that operate only within the state and, therefore, are not

subject to federal regulations. States also have increased enforcement efforts to improve

compliance with these safety standards. As a result of these safety initiatives, NHTSA

estimates show that the involvement rate of large trucks in fatal crashes per 100 million large

truck VMT decreased from 4.9 in 1975 to 2.5 in 1998. Figure 3-25 shows the decline in fatal

crash involvement rate (per 100 million VMT) for large trucks between 1988 and 1998.

To further improve the enforcement of motor carrier safety programs and reduce fatalities from

crashes involving large trucks, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) was

created by the Motor Carrier Safety Improvement Act of 1999. This legislation provided

increased resources to target:

increased roadside inspections,

compliance reviews and enforcement actions,

improved safety data,

additional research into the causes of crashes,

increased education for highway drivers,

review of the CDL program, and

close monitoring of new truck and bus drivers.

Fatal Accident Rate for Large Trucks and Passenger Vehicles: 1988-98 (Annual totals)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Large Truck Crash

Profile: The 1998 National Picture (Washington, DC: 2000).

Figure 3-25 Fatality rate/100 million VMT

Large trucks

Passenger vehicles

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
3-31

Keys to the Future

On January 1, 2000, the FMCSA began its life with the ambitious goal of reducing fatalities in

crashes involving trucks and buses by 50 percent over the next 10 years. This target, the

centerpiece of the Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety Action Plan, was announced by the

Secretary of Transportation in May 1999.

Current trends suggest that over the next 25 years, the number of large trucks and their VMT

may continue to grow significantly. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and

the expanding international freight trade also may create more truck traffic. If truck travel

continues to grow at its current rate, the miles traveled will increase by approximately 55 percent by 2025 to more than 300 million truck-miles per year. Given

this growth rate, large truck fatalities would be expected to increase to over 8,300

in 2025 if the current fatality rate of 2.7 fatalities per 100 million miles traveled

does not change. However, we can do better. Our stretch goal of reducing motor

carrier-related fatalities by 50 percent by 2010 will propel further reductions by

2025. The FMCSA and the trucking industry will be challenged to reduce deaths while the

motor carrier industry grows rapidly. The major challenges likely to be faced include:

collecting accurate information to allow field staff to focus on motor carriers and

drivers identified as the highest safety risks and to remove problem carriers and

drivers from the road;

increasing safety awareness among the driving public on how they can better cope

with trucks and buses on the highways;

increasing safety awareness among commercial drivers and safety personnel in the

area of fatigue recognition and management;

developing standards for the many new motor carriers expected to enter the industry;

and,

using technology advances—crash avoidance systems, early hazard detection,

countermeasures for driver fatigue, and roadside brake examination on moving

vehicles—to increase safety in the truck and bus industries.

Possible long-range solutions include:

imposing crashworthiness requirements to reduce fatalities in truck/car collisions,

requiring new carriers to demonstrate knowledge of existing safety regulations,

setting aggressive and accountable goals for states to reduce fatalities,

imposing stiffer requirements on CDL applicants for traffic and drug- and alcoholrelated violations, and

establishing a National Commission to study how economic considerations may

affect drivers’ decisions to drive for longer periods without rest.

The momentum developed to meet the 2010 goals could propel us to even higher levels of

safety. While crashes involving large trucks are frequently deemed not to be the fault of the

operator of the truck, advanced technological systems installed in trucks together with

carefully targeted investments will continue to reduce large truck-related fatalities. By 2025, a

target of reducing fatalities far beyond the 50 percent goal by 2010 is entirely feasible.
3-32

Transit Safety

In 1975, transit, like the intercity rail system, was beset by serious financial difficulties. As

transit ridership steadily declined from the late 1940s through the early 1970s, public agencies were forced to bail-out the financially beleaguered private transit operators. The public

agencies kept transit systems operating, but limited funds remained for system upgrades and

safety improvements.

In the past quarter century, fare increases, public funding, and, recently, increased ridership to

more than 9 billion have improved the financial stability of transit agencies. New equipment

and tracks, better safety training, and tougher federal and state oversight have produced

transit systems that are safer and more efficient.

Twenty-five years ago, the major focus of most transit agencies was to generate enough funds

to continue operating. Many transit systems considered operating funds to be top priority,

while maintenance for aging tracks and vehicles was a lesser concern. These systems could

not afford new equipment.

Beginning in 1975, transit systems received some relief from the pressures of generating

operating expenses with the first federal operating assistance and an increase in federal funds

for capital assistance. When the Federal Mass Transit Account was established in 1983,

funded by a penny-per-gallon gas tax, transit systems began receiving even more federal

capital funds, freeing more of their own money for operating expenses. Many state and local

governments also recognized the financial crisis facing transit agencies and came to their aid;

some provided direct aid, and others provided dedicated local tax revenues. As these funds

were combined with revenues from the farebox, transit agencies gradually began to invest in

system improvements and new equipment. Greater attention also was focused on preventing

operator errors through better training and stricter enforcement of drug and alcohol

standards.

Between 250 and 300 people die annually in transit incidents (figure 3-26), and about 55,000

people are injured, according to the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). Figure 3-27 shows

the declining trend in transit incidents between 1990 and 1998 (fatality and injury data are

unavailable before 1990). There are more deaths and injuries on bus systems than on other

transit modes, more incidents per million vehicle-miles on light rail than on other modes, and

more deaths per 100 million unlinked passenger trips on commuter rail systems.

Fatalities in All Transit Incidents: 1990-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 3-26

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration, Safety Management Information

System (Washington, DC: 1998). Number of fatalities

250

300

350

400

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
3-33

In 1995, Congress mandated the FTA to create the State Safety Oversight program, requiring

states to manage the safety of rail transit systems and to develop system safety program

standards. This requirement applies to 34 transit agencies in 22 states. Commuter rail safety

is covered by Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) safety standards.

Keys to the Future

If current trends continue, transit systems will be carrying more riders early in the new

century—particularly the aging U.S. population, which may create more transit demand for

ridership.

Increased investment in new and better equipment by transit agencies is one solution for

providing the safety needed for increasing ridership. Recently, transit agencies have joined in

testing railcars and railcar windows. New technologies (e.g., rear collision avoidance, lane

change and merge collision avoidance, road departure warning, and pedestrian/passenger

sensing) also promise to increase the margin of safety.

Transit agencies also can provide improved safety education and training for the workforce.

In 1999, the Transportation Safety Institute provided more than 53,000 hours of training for

transit workers.

Railroad Safety

In 1975, much of the U.S. railroad industry was hobbled by major financial problems. Railroads, struggling to survive, lacked the funds to maintain existing infrastructure or buy new

equipment. Deteriorating track and aging railcars and other equipment posed significant

safety threats.

Following economic deregulation in 1980, the railroads gradually regained financial strength

and the resources to reach higher safety levels. Today, with increasing rail traffic, safety has

improved and the number of railroad-related crashes and fatalities have decreased

(figures 3-28 and 3-29). But, we can do more—the FRA has set a 5-year goal to reduce the rate

of fatalities fatalities in rail-related incidents by 25 percent [USDOT FRA 1999].

Transit Incidents: 1990-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 3-27

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration, Safety Management Information

System (Washington, DC: 1998). Number of incidents

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

60,000

80,000

100,000

70,000

90,000
3-34

Significant challenges in the railroad industry have confronted the USDOT from the time of its

creation in 1966. The FRA was granted broad safety rulemaking authority under the Federal

Railroad Safety Act of 1970 [Public Law 91-458] and set the first federal track safety standards

in 1971 [36 Federal Register 20336] and, in 1973, set freight car safety standards [38 Federal

Register 32230]. The new regulations did not immediately improve the railroads’ safety

performance. In 1978, total train crashes, excluding highway-rail grade crossing and trespass

incidents, reached 10,991 with 61 fatalities, including 24 deaths resulting from the release of

hazardous materials from 232 railcars involved in train crashes [USDOT FRA 2000].

Part of the problem in the mid-1970s was that economic regulation curtailed the railroad

industry’s ability to generate sufficient revenues to maintain its infrastructure. The Staggers

Rail Act of 1980—legislation that liberalized the regulatory environment for railroads—

initiated the industry’s return to financial recovery. Safety improved with increased

Fatalities in Train Incidents: 1978-98

(Annual totals)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, Accident/Incident

Overview (Washington, DC: Various years).

Figure 3-29 Number of fatalities

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1978 1984 1990 1994 1998 1980 1982 1986 1988 1992 1996

Total Train Incidents: 1978-98

(Annual totals)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, Accident/Incident Overview

(Washington, DC: Various years).

Figure 3-28 Number of incidents

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1978 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998
3-35

investment in railroad infrastructure, including technologically advanced physical plant and

equipment. At the same time, the industry was faced with new, higher safety standards set by

the FRA, ranging from crashworthiness standards for tank cars to alcohol and drug testing

regulations for operators and other workers.

As a result of these measures, rail-related injuries dropped by 75 percent between 1978 and

1993 [USDOT FRA 2000]. During the same period, incidents declined by more than 75 percent

while the incident rate per million train-miles dropped by more than 65 percent. The

highway-rail grade crossing incident rate was reduced by more than 75 percent, from 18 per

million train-miles to 4.8 per million train-miles (figure 3-30). Since 1980, only three people

have died as the result of hazardous materials release in train crashes [USDOT FRA 2000].

These substantial safety improvements took

place while freight railroad traffic increased to a

record 1.1 trillion ton-miles by 1993. The

fatality rate per million train-miles stayed

nearly constant from 1978 to 1993, but with

FRA’s new safety inspection program and

continuing investment, the rate then decreased

by 38 percent from 1993 to 1999 (figure 3-31).

From 1993 to 1999, despite increases in highway and train traffic, incidents at highway-rail

crossings decreased by 29 percent, and crossing

deaths decreased by 36 percent. Figure 3-32

shows the location of grade crossing fatalities

in 1998. Overall railroad fatalities fell by

27 percent, and total railroad injuries fell by

39 percent [USDOT FRA 2000]. In 1999, only 39

hazardous materials releases were due to train

crashes—an 83 percent drop since 1978

[USDOT FRA Annual issues].

Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Incident Rate: 1978-99

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, Annual Safety Statistics, (Washington, DC: Various years).

Figure 3-30 Incident rate/million train-miles

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1978 1985 1990 1995 1999 1980

FRA promotes strategic partnerships with

rail labor, management, suppliers, state

rail safety agencies, and other rail stakeholders. through the advent of this partnership concept, begun in 1993, a new

safety culture has emerged within the

railroad industry to implement safer

operating practices and procedures. This

new safety culture, along with technological advances, permits new and

innovative practices to be adapted and

thereby improve the overall safety of the

industry as well as the quality of life of

the employee.
3-36

Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

Combined public and private action has been successful in eliminating thousands of crossings and

reducing fatalities and grade crossing crashes. Figure 3-33 shows the decline in highway-rail

grade crossing fatalities. Between 1974 and 1993, 49,000 public grade crossings were eliminated. In 1994, the USDOT developed the Rail-Highway Grade Crossing Safety Action Plan,

whose implementation eliminated another 9,000 public grade crossings. The 1996 Federal

Railroad Administration (FRA) requirement for all locomotives to have warning lights also helped

produce significant reductions in the rate of grade crossing incidents. To add another safety precaution, Congress required FRA to issue rules preempting state and local laws banning the sounding of locomotive horns at public grade crossings. FRA also has expanded and strengthened its

partnerships with groups such as Operation Lifesaver. As a result of these measures, deaths at

highway-rail grade crossings have declined by more than half since the late 1970s [USDOT FRA

2000].

Rail-Related Fatality Rate, Including Highway-Rail Grade Crossings: 1976-99

Source: U.S. Department ot Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, Annual Safety Statistics (Washington, DC:

Various years).

Figure 3-31

Figure 3-32

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Railroad Administration, Offices of Policy and Safety,

special tabulations (Washington, DC: 2000); and USDOT, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Atlas Database 2000.

Grade-Crossing Fatality Locations: 1998

(continued on next page)

Fatality rate/million train-miles

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Box 3-8
3-37

Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

Still, many rail-related fatalities— 402 in 1999— result from collisions between trains and motor

vehicles at railroad crossings. About 159,000 public grade crossings remain, with about 20 percent having automatic gates and another 20 percent having flashing lights [USDOT OIG 1999].

Figure 3-34 shows the highway-rail grade crossings by active and passive controls. Almost one-third

of the more than 3,000 grade crossing collisions in 1999 (and 42 percent of the fatalities) occurred

in five states: California, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, and Texas [USDOT FRA 2000]. FRA focuses a

broad-based approach in these states including education and enforcement under Operation Lifesaver and through public announcements. Under proposed FRA rules, communities wishing to

prohibit the sounding of locomotive horns at public grade crossings may be required to implement

other grade crossing improvements, such as four-quadrant gates, photo enforcement, and roadway

medians.

Today, trespassing has become the leading cause of railroad fatalities [USDOT FRA Annual

issues]. Each year, approximately 500 people are killed as a result of trespassing on railroad

rights-of-way. Railroads face the challenge of identifying sites vulnerable to trespassing,

improving awareness, and installing fencing.

In 1997, after the merger of Union Pacific and

Southern Pacific, concerns about merger-related

safety problems—blending different corporate

cultures and reconciling different operating rules

and practices—arose. To address these concerns,

the FRA, the Surface Transportation Board, and the

two railroads worked jointly to develop Safety

Integration Plans (SIPs)—blueprints to ensure

critical safety needs were addressed. CSX and

Norfolk Southern (NS) implemented SIPs as part of

their acquisition of Conrail. Despite well-publicized service problems, reported crashes and

injuries decreased in the realigned CSX and NS

territories.

In the past seven years, the safety focus has moved from site-specific inspections and enforcement to a cooperative industry-government partnership to identify and solve systemwide safety

problems. This paradigm shift is the same as the work between NHTSA and its partners that

focuses on prevention and not just response. As a result, safety regulations rules have been

issued on bridge protection, maintenance of way, trackside workers, passenger train emergency

preparedness, passenger equipment, two-way end-of-train devices, and track safety standards.

Partnerships also were

formed to address highway-rail crossings and to

develop recommendations

on other safety issues. In

the first 6 years of this new

cooperative safety approach, the fatality rate per

million train-miles declined by 27 percent

[USDOT FRA 2000].

Inspections, violation

reports, and fines also were

reduced. Today, approximately 400 FRA safety

inspectors, joined by

150 state inspectors,

monitor compliance with

FRA safety regulations.

Box 3-8 continued

Source: U.S. Department ot Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, Railroad Safety

Statistics Annual Report (Washington, DC: 1998).

Figure 3-33 Number of fatalities

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Highway-Rail Grade-Crossing Fatalities: 1975-98

“Our challenge is about saving lives.

It is about ensuring that more people

arrive home safely each and every

day — people who work on

railroads, travel on railroads, and

live near railroads. Our results

speak for themselves. The years

1993-1999 were the safest seven years

in rail history.”

Jolene Molitoris

Administrator,

Federal Railroad Administration
3-38

Keys to the Future

Based on FRA’s current safety programs and strategies, its goal is to achieve an entire year

with zero employee-on-duty fatalities before the year 2025. FRA has also set the goal of

reducing highway-rail grade-crossing fatalities 75 percent by the year 2025 to fewer than 100

per year. Working with its rail industry partners, FRA hopes to cut the train accident rate by

nearly 50 percent by 2025 [USDOT FRA 1999]. Further progress in rail safety requires continued partnership between FRA and the rail industry to actively address the following key

issues, as called for during the 1999 National Transportation Safety Conference:

researching, testing, evaluating, and implementing alternative grade crossing technologies to prevent highway grade crossing accidents;

researching human factors, including fatigue, which hamper operator alertness,

resulting in crashes;

promoting safety in high-speed train operations, including those reaching 90 to 150 mph

on existing railroad rights of way; future trains reaching 200 mph using advanced steelwheel-on-rail systems on largely new rights of way; and trains reaching 300 mph

with magnetic levitation (maglev), where magnetic forces lift, propel, and guide a

vehicle over a specially designed guideway;

safe sharing of mainline freight track with light rail, commuter rail, and intercity passenger operations; and

deploying positive train control systems (box 3-8).

To improve safety, the FRA and the railroad industry are examining ways to develop Intelligent Railroad Systems that would incorporate new digital communications technologies into

positive train control, electronically controlled braking systems, grade crossings, and defect

detection in tracks.

Number of Highway-Rail Grade Crossings by Active and Passive Controls: 1990-98

(Annual totals)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, Railroad Safety Statistics Annual Report

(Washington, DC: Annual issues).

Figure 3-34 Number of crossings

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Active

Passive
3-39

The FRA recognizes that there are many contributing aspects to human factor-caused train

incidents, such as fatigue and train operator experience. The FRA is exploring more sophisticated ways of developing and analyzing data associated with these incidents. The FRA also

is working with the railroads to strengthen job training and compliance with safety

regulations.

Technology for Rail Safety

Intelligent Railroad Systems use digital communications technologies for train control, braking

systems, grade crossings, and defect detection to make the railroad system safer. New electronic

sensors, computers, and transmission systems will help railroads detect hazardous equipment and

track conditions and prevent collisions and derailments.

Positive Train Control (PTC) systems will use digital data link communications networks, positioning systems, and on-train and control center computers to maintain assured separation

between trains.

Electronically controlled pneumatic brakes will substantially shorten braking distance by

using an electronic signal to simultaneously apply all brakes on a train.

Intelligent grade crossings with sensors will send information about trains to highway

traffic control centers and to motorists through roadside traffic information signs. Sensors

will send information to both trains and railroad control centers if a stalled vehicle blocks

a grade crossing.

Electronic sensors, on or alongside tracks and on locomotives and freight cars, will

identify track and equipment problems and transmit the information to train and maintenance crews, and to control centers, in order to stop or slow a train, if necessary, to

initiate repairs.

New high-speed trainsets will have complex, computerized safety systems that are integrated with the safety system for the entire railroad.

Aviation Safety

A quarter century of focus on aviation safety has made air

travel an extremely safe mode of transportation. The rate at

which major U.S. aviation crashes (hull losses with fatalities) occur has decreased by more than two-thirds in the

past two decades [USDOT FAA 2000b].

Stricter enforcement, higher standards, evolving technology,

and information sharing have combined for continuous

long-term safety improvements in air travel for both commercial and general aviation (figures 3-35 through 3-37).

Figure 3-38 shows the decline in fatal U.S. air carrier

accidents per 100,000 departures since 1978. For example,

today, commercial aircraft are equipped to “know” when

they are not configured properly and to employ corrective actions. They “know” when they

are too close to terrain or too close to each other. In the past 25 years, there have been major

breakthroughs in:

air traffic control system technologies,

understanding human factors that cause crashes,

development of simulators used for training pilots,

airframe and engine reliability,

onboard automation,

cabin safety and survivability, and

crash investigation data.

“Already, there is less than

one fatal crash for every

one million commercial

flights. But we know we

can do better still. Any

accident, any death in the

air is still one too many.”

President William J. Clinton

in announcement on airline safety

Jan. 14, 2000

Box 3-9
3-40

Fatal Commercial Air Transportation Accidents: 1975-98

Figure 3-35

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation

Statistics 1999 (Washington, DC: 1999), Tables 3-9 through 3-13, pages 221-225.

Commercial Air Transportation Fatalities: 1975-98

Figure 3-36

Note: There was one fatality involving air carriers in 1998.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation

Statistics 1999 (Washington, DC: 1999), Tables 3-9 through 3-13, pages 221-225. Number of fatalities

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Air carrier

Commuter/on-demand air taxi

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Air carrier

Number of accidents

Commuter/ 

on-demand air taxi
3-41

Fatal Accidents and Fatalities in General Aviation: 1975-98

Figure 3-37

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics 1999

(Washington, DC: 1999), Table 3-14, p. 226.

Fatal U.S. Air Carrier Accidents Per 100,000 Departures: 1978-98

Figure 3-38

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, personal communication, 2000. Number of fatal accidents and fatalities

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Fatalities

Fatal accidents

0.00

1978

Rate

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14
3-42

In the early 1970s, the aviation industry did not have a good safety record, prompting criticism of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) policies. In January 1975, Claude S. Brinegar,

the Secretary of Transportation (1973–1975), appointed a special 10-person Task Force on the

FAA Safety Mission to examine FAA’s organizational structure, management, and performance

on safety issues. In April 1975, during Secretary William T. Coleman’s administration, the

task force made recommendations to the FAA that enabled the FAA to improve its organizational efficiency and expedite rulemaking procedures [USDOT FAA OPA 2000]. These improvements allowed the FAA to address some of the most challenging aspects of aviation

safety—issues that would remain at the forefront of FAA programs during the next 25 years.

Some of the issues addressed by FAA since 1975 are described in the following paragraphs.

Altitude Safety: The FAA examined landing approach procedures following the December

1974 crash of a Boeing 727 into a mountain near Berryville, Virginia, while on approach into

Dulles International Airport. Soon after the crash, the FAA implemented higher standards by

specifying pilot responsibilities for maintaining safe altitude and specifying the role of air

traffic controllers in maintaining pilots’ awareness of altitude restrictions.

The agency also expedited work on a technological solution by requiring installation of a

Ground Proximity Warning System (GPWS) on large airliners. The system provided both

visual and audible warning signals if an aircraft descended too close to the ground. All major

airlines were in compliance with the GPWS rule by the end of 1976. In March 1992, the rule

was extended to turbine-powered aircraft with 10 or more passenger seats flown by air taxi

and commercial operators. More recently, the FAA and industry have taken steps to equip

airliners with more advanced terrain awareness warning systems.

Rapid Decompression Standards: In July 1975, the FAA raised standards requiring widebody jets to withstand the effects of rapid decompression. Concern about aircraft airworthiness was prompted by the March 1974 crash in France of a Turkish Airlines McDonnell

Douglas DC-10 wide-body airliner, killing all 346 people on board in the worst air disaster up

to that time. In this incident, a cargo door of the jet opened in flight, producing explosive

decompression that disabled vital flight-control cables. This series of events led to a broader

use of FAA airworthiness directives to ensure in-flight safety of aircraft systems.

Separation Standards: Also in 1975, the FAA increased the standard of distance separation

for small aircraft landing behind larger aircraft that are capable of generating wake turbulence. Depending on the size of the lead aircraft, the new procedures required a separation of

either four or six miles for the trailing plane. In the 1990s, the FAA modified these standards

to give added protection from wake turbulence to small aircraft traveling behind the

Boeing 757.

Structural Safety: As the service lives of commercial aircraft are extended, greater focus has

been placed on the safety of aging aircraft. This problem was highlighted by a 1988 incident

in which structural fatigue caused the opening, in mid-flight, of an 18-foot gap in the fuselage

of an Aloha Airlines plane. One cabin attendant was ejected from the aircraft by the force of

decompression. The FAA responded with a new approach to aging aircraft—replacement of

mandatory inspections with preventive modifications for high-service airliners and the

replacement of certain parts after a specified number of flight hours or takeoff-and-landing

cycles.

Fire Safety: In March 1977, the full destructive potential of post-crash fire—and the need for

higher standards and new technology—was revealed when a fiery runway collision

involving a Dutch and a U.S. airliner produced history’s worst airline incident at Tenerife,

Canary Islands. That incident claimed the lives of 583 passengers and crew. The FAA’s
3-43

Special Aviation Fire and Explosion Reduction (SAFER) Advisory Committee made a series of

recommendations for research and rulemaking.

In 1984, the FAA published two SAFER-based rules on fire-resistant seat cushions and escapepath marking. During the next several years, the agency issued important fire protection rules

that included stricter flammability standards for interior materials and improved protection

for cargo compartments.

Fire concerns continued into the 1990s. The 1996 crash of a ValuJet DC-9 in the Florida

Everglades was traced to a fire in the cargo compartment. The subsequent investigation

resulted in new rules banning oxygen generators from the cargo holds of passenger planes,

new focus on labeling and handling hazardous materials, and new rules for fire detection

and suppression systems in cargo compartments by March 2001 (see the Hazardous Materials

Safety section found later in this chapter).

The investigation following the crash of a SwissAir MD-11, in 1998, focused on wiring and

insulation and the tests used to determine flammability. Aircraft insulation blankets covered

with metalized Mylar were ordered replaced within four years in five types of transport

aircraft, and the standard used to determine material flammability was tightened.

Wires and Fuel Tanks: The July 1996 crash of Trans World Airlines (TWA) Flight 800 into the

Atlantic Ocean killed 230 passengers and crew. The investigation of that crash heightened

attention to the dangers of corroded wires that could ignite fuel tank vapors. Inspections by

the FAA and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) determined that the wires near

fuel tanks in Boeing 747s and other planes required maintenance. The follow-up included

new certification standards and mandatory maintenance instructions on fuel systems for

newly designed aircraft, a design review of the fuel tank system of larger existing transports,

and a requirement for manufacturers to design specific programs for fuel tank maintenance

and protection.

Commuter Airline Safety: As economic regulation of airlines was phased out by legislation

enacted in 1978, the FAA adjusted its oversight program. The rules governing air taxis and

commuter airlines (Federal Aviation Regulations, Part 135)—the fastest growing segment of

the air transportation business—were revised in December 1978 to include mandates for

better pilot qualifications and training, more stringent aircraft maintenance programs, and

more sophisticated safety equipment. In 1980, the FAA added additional experience requirements for commuter airline crews.

These revisions were designed to bring the safety level of the commuter airlines closer to those

of major airlines. In December 1995, the Commuter Safety Initiative set a single level of safety

for all travelers by applying the stricter standards of major airlines (Federal Aviation Regulations, Part 121) to commuter airlines that had scheduled passenger operations and/or used

aircraft seating 10 to 30 passengers or propelled by turbojets. The rules contained provisions

on standards for airplane performance and for flight crew training and qualifications. In

addition, the regulations also extended to commuter airline pilots the age-60 rule on mandatory retirement, which had formerly applied to airline pilots flying larger aircraft.

Aviation Safety Reporting: In 1975, the FAA established the Aviation Safety Reporting System

(ASRS), designed to collect information on potentially unsafe conditions from airspace users.

To encourage reporting of safety problems, the program generally granted immunity from

disciplinary action to pilots or controllers filing timely reports. Although immunity programs

had been instituted before, the ASRS was the first that did not limit immunity to reports of

near midair collisions.
3-44

The program was enhanced by an agreement between the FAA and the National Aeronautics

and Space Administration (NASA) under which NASA would operate a third-party reporting

system, guaranteeing anonymity to individuals providing the data. To help collect safetyrelated information, the FAA opened a confidential Aviation Safety Hotline in July 1985 for

reports of specific regulatory violations.

Collision Avoidance Equipment: The use of airborne collision avoidance equipment was a

major technology development of the past quarter century. By 1975, the FAA had already been

studying this technology for several years; and by 1981, the agency had pursued a design,

which was designated the Traffic Alert Collision Avoidance System (TCAS). In 1989, the FAA

directed airlines and commuter operators to install TCAS.

Keys to the Future

Although today’s air-incident rate is low, an even lower rate is

necessary for the future to improve safety in a rapidly growing

aviation industry. Based on projected 15-year growth rates in

the industry, current worldwide incident rates will produce an

aircraft loss somewhere in the world every eight days [Boeing

2000a, 2000b]. In the United States, the present incident rate

would produce an aircraft loss about every three months by

2015. The FAA’s 2007 goal is an 80 percent reduction in the air

carrier fatal incident rate [Flynn 2000] from the 1994 through

1996 levels.

To achieve this ambitious reduction, major breakthroughs and

innovations—new ways of acquiring and sharing knowledge

about safety, new ways of setting safety standards, and a new

way of working with the aviation community—will be needed.

This will require creative strategies that go beyond the government’s traditional regulatory

role, as well as timely implementation. To further improve aviation’s safety record, public and

private researchers must work cooperatively to achieve new and innovative breakthroughs

from technology, advances in automation, and new human factors knowledge.

The FAA’s future safety strategies will focus on a collaborative

process that involves working with the aviation community to

prevent crashes by finding potential causes. An important

element will be new data systems to provide necessary information. These new systems depend on the day-to-day exchange and analysis of operational data by government,

industry, and academia. The FAA is working with the aviation

community to identify and address potential causes of crashes

using data from flight recorders, maintenance reports, and

other sources.

Based on detailed analysis of recurrent crash causes, the FAA

works with the aviation community to prevent crashes

through targeted, systematic interventions. Safer Skies, the

Administrator Garvey’s Safety Agenda [USDOT FAA 2000c],

highlights three broad initiatives that will change over time.

Commercial Aviation Safety addresses accident causes such as

controlled flight into terrain (CFIT), uncontained engine

failures, approach and landing, loss of control, and runway

“The ultimate aim of our

efforts is to assure a safe

and secure system that

enhances the unprecedented

levels of mobility we have

achieved and which fuels

our economic growth while

improving the quality of

the environment.”

Ashish Sen

Director, Bureau of

Transportation Statistics

“Both Safer Skies and GAIN

mark what I think is a historically important shift in

direction for aviation safety.

Both rely on partnership—

on the FAA and the aviation

industry working together.

Both take a preventive

approach. And, both rely on

information technology.”

Jane F. Garvey

Administrator

Federal Aviation Administration

Third GAIN World Conference

Nov. 4, 1998
3-45

incursion. General Aviation Safety addresses causes such as CFIT, weather, loss of control,

survivability, aeronautical decisionmaking, and runway incursion. Cabin Safety, the third

initiative, addresses passenger interference, passenger seat belt use, carry-on baggage, and

child restraints.

The FAA also is working with the worldwide aviation community to develop a privately

owned and operated Global Aviation Information Network (GAIN) to collect, analyze, and

disseminate aviation safety information. GAIN will dig deeper into the worldwide unreported occurrences of aviation incidents to gather information for their prevention.

To measure success, the agency has specific targets for improvement by specified dates

[USDOT FAA 2000a].

1. Fatal Air Carrier Accident Rate: By 2007, reduce the U.S. commercial air carrier fatal

accident rate per 100,000 hours flown by 80 percent of the 3-year average from 1994

to 1996. This performance goal was the chief safety recommendation of the 1997 White

House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security.

2. General Aviation Fatal Accidents: Reduce general aviation fatal accidents to produce a

20 percent improvement over the projected 2007 estimate of 437. This goal was agreed

upon by a coalition representing the general aviation community and the FAA.

3. Occupant Risk: Increase the probability that passengers and crew will survive an air

carrier flight (figure 3-39).

Looking into the future, NASA and the FAA are working together to achieve the long-term goal

of reducing the aircraft accident rate by a factor of 5 by 2010, and by a factor of 10 by 2025.

Flight Data Recorders

The first permanent requirement for flight data recorders aboard specific commercial aircraft

became effective in 1958. A requirement for Cockpit Voice Recorders followed in 1967. Since

then, the requirements have continually expanded— to business-type jets in February 1975, to some

existing and newly manufactured large commuter aircraft in 1988, and to new jet and turboprop

commuter aircraft in 1989. Voice recorders were mandated in 1988 for all multiengine, turbinepowered commuter and air taxi aircraft able to seat six or more persons with a two-pilot crew. In

1989, the FAA ordered the installation of more sophisticated digital flight data recorders on about

Probability that Passengers Will Survive an Air Carrier Flight

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working paper on

Aviation Safety, draft, March 2000.

Figure 3-39

(continued on next page)

Odds (millions to one)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Box 3-10
3-46

2,000 older, large commercial jets. Requirements for voice recorders and flight data recorders

also were extended to general aviation aircraft with multiple turbine engines. In recent years, the

National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have

been seeking to use advanced recording technology to better identify the causes of aviation crashes

and predict trends to prevent future crashes.

Flight Data Recorders

The flight data recorder onboard aircraft records many different operating conditions of the flight

that can aid in an investigation in case of a crash. The items monitored can include anything from

altitude, airspeed, and heading to flap position, autopilot mode, or even smoke alarms. When

used in conjunction with other information gained in the investigation, the flight data recorder and

the cockpit voice recorder are playing an ever-increasing role in determining the causes of aircraft

crashes.

In 1995, in response to an NTSB recommendation, the FAA called on the aviation industry to

begin voluntarily retrofitting Boeing 737 aircraft with upgraded digital flight data recorders

(DFDRs). In 1997, the FAA ordered the installation of such DFDRs by August 2001.

The number of specific areas of flight information— data parameters— will be set at 88 for newly

manufactured aircraft and will be increased from 11 to 17 or 18 for older aircraft. These

parameters deal primarily with information such as the position of flight controls and pilot input.

In response to an NTSB recommendation based on the finding that a rudder malfunction resulted in

the deaths of 132 passengers and crew aboard USAir (now USAirways) Flight 427 in 1994, the

FAA has proposed additional flight data recorder parameters for the rudder systems of

Boeing 737s. Newer Boeing 737s would have upgraded rudder parameters installed by August

4, 2000, while older 737s would have to be in compliance by August 2001.

In response to NTSB recommendations, the FAA also is proposing to increase the 30-minute

recording now required on cockpit voice recorders to two hours and to require a 10-minute

backup power supply by January 1, 2005. Additionally, the agency is proposing that aircraft built

after January 1, 2003, have combination voice and data recording systems. One unit would be

close to the cockpit; the other would be in the back of the aircraft.

Maritime Safety

New safety regulations, technological change, education and training programs, and enhanced law enforcement have made our waters much safer than they were 25 years ago. Most

fatalities, injuries, and incidents on the water involve recreational boating (which has become

an increasingly popular pastime), but fatalities have declined 50 percent since 1975 [USDOT

USCG 1999]. Fatalities from commercial vessel operations have decreased by 87 percent from

1975 levels, even though traffic has increased [USDOT USCG 2000c]. Maritime workers still

have a fatality rate that is four to five times greater than the average for all other U.S. occupations [USDOT BTS, MARAD, and USCG 1999]. Fishermen are more likely than other maritime

workers to die on the job, even though commercial fishing fatalities are down 20 percent since

passage of the Commercial Fishing Industry Vessel Safety Act of 1988 [USDOT USCG 1999].

From 1995 to 1999, 60 people died on commercial passenger vessels from all causes (excluding natural causes and diving accidents), and the number of passenger injuries averaged 183

over that same time period [USDOT USCG 2000e]. The NTSB in 1989, and again in 1993,

identified serious shortcomings in passenger ship safety and issued recommendations to

improve standards for fire protection, crew qualifications, emergency drills, and crew language requirements.

Box 3-10 continued
3-47

Safety on our waters has improved over the last

25 years as a result of efforts by the U.S. Coast Guard

(USCG), in collaboration with industry, the public,

and the states. Concerted efforts are being made to

improve safety even further. The strides made in the

last 25 years and the future direction of safety

programs are discussed in detail below for each

aspect of the maritime system.

Recreational Boating: Recreational boating fatalities peaked at 1,466 in 1975. In response to the high

number of fatalities that year, the USCG implemented an aggressive enforcement campaign to

crack down on boaters operating under the influence of alcohol, along with efforts to increase the use

of life jackets. As a result of these efforts, recreational

boating fatalities declined to 734 by 1999

(figure 3-40). Figure 3-41 shows recreational boating

accidents by state in 1975 and 1998.

Of the 815 reported recreational

boating fatalities in 1998, 217

were alcohol-related [USDOT

USCG 1999], and alcohol was

involved in 15 percent of all fatal

boating accidents (Figure 3-43).

Operating a watercraft while

intoxicated became a federal

offense in 1998, but the USCG is

seeking to tighten enforcement

even further by lowering the

blood-alcohol content level from

0.10 percent to 0.08 percent in all

states (20 states already have a

0.08 percent blood-alcohol

concentration limit). This is the

same standard used today for

motor vehicle drivers [USDOT USCG 2000b].

While jet skis and other personal watercraft are

involved in as many accidents as open motorboats,

more than five times as many people die in open

motorboat accidents [USDOT USCG 1999]. Use of

life jackets by jet ski users and the reluctance of

many boaters to wear life jackets may be the

difference. Although jet skiers are less likely to

drown than motorboat passengers, they are much

more likely to die from blunt force trauma—the

primary cause of death in personal watercraft

mishaps [USDOT BTS, MARAD, and USCG 1999].

Fatalities Involving Recreational Boating: 1975-99

Source: U.S. Department ot Transportation, U.S. Coast Guard, Office of Investigation and Analysis, Compliance Analysis Division (Washington, DC: Various years).

Figure 3-40 Number of fatalities

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998 1999

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Box 3-11

Growth of

Recreational Boats

Today, more people than ever

are spending their recreational

time on the water, and the

number of state-registered

recreational boats grows annually (figure 3-42). Adding to the

mix of boats and recreational

vessels are thousands of personal

watercraft, more commonly

known as jet skis. According to

the National Marine Manufacturers Association, an estimated

106,000 personal watercraft

were sold in 1999, up from

29,000 in 1987.

Box 3-12 Life Jackets

The vast majority of boating

fatalities result from factors that

can be controlled or eliminated by

individual boaters. Simply

wearing a life jacket can vastly

improve the chances of surviving

a boating accident. About 7 out

of 10 boating fatalities are caused

by drowning. About 90 percent

of these victims were not wearing

life jackets.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Coast Guard, “Campaign

Targets Boating Fatalities for Elimination,” (news release), available at http://

www.safeboatingcampaign.com/

2000announce.htm, as of June 19, 2000.
3-48

Figure 3-41

Recreational Boating Accidents: 1975 and 1998

Note: Data on individual fatalities in North Dakota are not available for 1975.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Coast Guard, Boating Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual issues).

0 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 199

200 - 449

450 - 1312

1975

1999
3-49

Commercial Vessel Operations: In 1975, safety was a growing concern as 243 commercial

maritime industry fatalities were recorded (figure 3-44). In the 1970s, new navigation safety

regulations became effective, and the USCG began to focus on ensuring compliance by

thousands of foreign vessels entering U.S. waters. Federal research and development centered

on ship control, navigation, and communication as a means of improving vessel operations

and enhancing safety.

Since then, much of the maritime transportation industry has implemented electronic shipboard controls for better navigation, communications, and maneuvering. Computer-based

Number of Recreational Boats: 1975-98

Figure 3-42

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Coast Guard, Boating Statistics

(Washington, DC: Annual issues).

Recreational Boating Fatalities, by Cause: 1998

Figure 3-43

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation,

U.S. Coast Guard, Boating

Statistics (Washington DC: 1998).

0

2

4

6

8

10

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

12

Recreational boats (millions)

14

Operation

of vessel,

excluding

alcohol use

31%

Environment

21%

Operation 

of vessel, 

including

alcohol use

15%

Unknown

10%

Other

6%

Loading of 

passengers

or gear

14%

Machinery/equipment 2% Hull failure 1%

Ignition of

spilled fuel

or vapor 

0%
3-50

systems for steering and

machinery monitoring, along

with antistranding sonar

systems to prevent vessel

groundings also have

improved ship safety.

Through the Internet, mariners receive notices about

potentially hazardous situations on a real-time basis.

Continued emphasis on

vessel inspections as well as

on improvement of design

and equipment requirements

combined with new vesseltracking technology, worldwide digital communications, and integrated navigation systems using electronic

charting have allowed the

commercial maritime transportation system to attain high levels of safety. As the number of marine casualties has

dropped, so has the number of fatalities. The principle focus of marine safety efforts is now

on human error, a primary causal factor in four out of five marine accidents.

Prevention Through People (PTP), a USCG initiative, attempts to reduce the human factors

problem through education and training programs, as well as by publishing and broadcasting information for mariners on weather, waterway depth, changes to navigation markers,

and hazards to navigation. In 1995, to further reduce the human factors problem in maritime incidents, the world’s maritime community reached an agreement on new standards

and certifications for training and educating mariners, which is now being implemented.

Passenger Vessels: The U.S. domestic passenger vessel fleet consists of approximately 6,200 vessels, of which approximately 98

percent are small passenger vessels (e.g., charter fishing, harbor

tour, or dinner cruise boats) or ferries. Passenger vessels in the

domestic fleet carry approximately 200 million passengers annually. Ferry vessels carry 134 million of these passengers. There are

approximately 130 foreign-flag passenger vessels that operate from

U.S. ports. These vessels carried almost 5.5 million passengers on

cruises in 1998 [USDOT 1999]. The USCG enforces applicable

domestic and international safety standards on the U.S. domestic

passenger vessel fleet and international safety standards on foreignflag passenger vessels operating out of U.S. ports. The aggressive

USCG examination program of these vessels has resulted in no

passenger deaths on a foreign-flag vessels operating from U.S. ports

since 1984, and the death rate involving the U.S. domestic passenger vessel fleet continues to decline.

Today, technological advances have made passenger vessels safer,

but they also have increased the complexity of vessel operation and

maintenance. Newer vessels, which often have much higher

passenger capacities than previous vessels, have increased the

number of possible casualties in the unlikely case of a catastrophic event. Passenger-vessel

traffic is increasing rapidly due to the growing markets for cruise ships, gambling ships, and

passenger ferries; and the number of high-speed, high-capacity passenger vessels is also

growing. Such increases can offset technological safety advances as the opportunity for

human error, resulting in collisions and/or vessels running aground, increases.

Fatalities Involving Commercial Waterborne Transportation:

1975-98

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Coast Guard, Office of Investigation and Analysis, Compliance Analysis Division (Washington, DC: Various years).

Figure 3-44 Number of fatalities

0

50

100

150

200

250

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

300

“Based on careful analysis,

the Coast Guard has

focused its safety efforts

toward the source of most

accidents: human error.

The Prevention Through

People program has created

partnerships throughout

industry that have

significantly reduced the

number of maritime

accidents—without

additional regulations.”

Adm. James M. Loy

Commandant,

U.S. Coast Guard
3-51

Search and Rescue: Over the past quarter century, the USCG has rescued more than 3,000

boaters, fishermen, divers, and swimmers each year—or more than eight a day—from the

nation’s oceans, rivers, lakes, and bays (figure 3-45). Figure 3-46 shows the number of lives

saved and lost in search and rescue missions in various USCG districts.

Lives Saved in Search and Rescue Missions: 1975-99 (Annual totals)

Figure 3-45

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Coast Guard, Search and Rescue Summary Statistics

(Washington, DC: Annual issues). Lives saved

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Figure 3-46

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Coast

U.S. Coast Guard Districts and the Number of Lives Lost and Saved: 1999

13th District

242 Lives saved

50 Lives lost

11th District

273 Lives saved

62 Lives lost

14th District

88 Lives saved

26 Lives lost

17th District

270 Lives saved

29 Lives lost

8th District

810 Lives saved

107 Lives lost

7th District

900 Lives saved

88 Lives lost

5th District

290 Lives saved

50 Lives lost

1st District

533 Lives saved

53 Lives lost

9th District

297 Lives saved

63 Lives lost

Lives lost

Most

Least
3-52

In addition to search and rescue activities in U.S. waters, the USCG, under international

agreement, is responsible for search and rescue activities in about 50 percent of the North

Atlantic Ocean and more than 75 percent of the North Pacific Ocean, an area covering more

than 28 million square nautical miles [USDOT USCG 2000d]. The USCG’s search and rescue

system—a high-impact, highly computerized structure—consists of multimission shore

stations, 23 cutters, 1,400 small boats, and more than 200 aircraft, all linked by communications networks [USDOT USCG 2000a]. More than 10 percent of the USCG’s operational hours

for aircraft, cutters, and boats are devoted to search and rescue.

Distress calls: Over the last 25 years, the world’s maritime system emerged from dependence

on 19th century telegraph code to send distress signals, to modern communications

technology—the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS).

Distress calls using Morse code (the familiar S-O-S) have saved thousands of lives, but its use

required skilled radio operators spending many hours monitoring the radio distress frequency, and its range was limited. In 1988, the International Maritime Organization set a

February 1, 1999, deadline for ships to complete installation of GMDSS technology. U.S. ships

were compelled to comply by the Telecommunications Act of 1996, which set GMDSS as the

new standard.

This new system is based on a combination of satellite and terrestrial radio services and has

changed international distress communications from being primarily ship-to-ship based to

ship-to-shore Rescue Coordination Center based. Now used almost universally, GMDSS can

reliably determine a vessel’s position, home in on its exact location, broadcast maritime safety

information, and provide general and ship-to-ship communications.

Keys to the Future

Recreational Boating: In the next quarter century, the number of recreational boaters is

expected to increase by more than 65 percent to more than 130 million annually [Loy 1999].

The success of safety efforts will depend on the effectiveness of many education and enforcement programs that focus on seamanship and the use of life jackets. The Coast Guard estimates that the use of life jackets might have saved more than 500 drowning victims in 1998

alone [USDOT BTS, MARAD, and USCG 1999].

Increases in recreational and commercial traffic (particularly barge traffic) on shared waters

pose a growing threat to recreational boaters, mariners, and the environment. Each year, 800

million short tons of U.S. domestic trade (approximately 75 percent of all domestic trade) is

carried aboard barges that are either towed or pushed by tugs through our coastal and inland

waters [USACE]. All boaters should be aware of the location of shipping channels, anchorages, commercial piers, draw bridges, and other congested port areas and should understand

that tugs, barges, and any large commercial vessels have limited ability to steer clear of

collisions or stop. In 2000, the USCG is proposing regulations that would create four sets of

safety measures for towing vessels and tank barges operating in northeast waters:

1. positive control for barges,

2. enhanced communications,

3. voyage planning, and

4. areas of restricted navigation.

Commercial Vessel Operations: Growth in intermodal cargo movement using larger ships—

and projected continued growth—presents a new safety challenge. Since 1975, a new

generation of high-capacity container ships has emerged with double- and triple-container

capacity. These new, bigger ships use radar-based Vessel Traffic Systems, navigational aids,

and automated identification systems for better ship-to-shore and ship-to-ship communi-
3-53

cations to enter and leave ports safely. The new technologies allow minimal crews—as few as

two—creating new challenges should these large vessels founder.

Maritime workers have a high fatality rate, and fishermen top the list. Dwindling fishery

stocks, increased competition, and limited fishing seasons have increased risk-taking by

fishermen. This risk-taking is compounded by the fact that fishing vessels have relatively few

safety standards imposed by law or regulation. The number of fishing vessels of different

sizes that operate in different locations and climates makes development of universal safety

regulations difficult. The USCG has recently begun implementing a safety program aimed at

the fishing industry [USDOT USCG 1999]. Its long-term recommendations include safety

examinations, inspections, and operator licensing; vessel safety and stability standards;

coordination of fisheries stock management with safety; and improvement of casualty

investigation data. Efforts to focus on safety awareness to reduce human errors need to be

combined with enforcement.

Passenger Vessels: Cruise ships are expected to attract 6.5 million passengers by 2002; and

because there are only two U.S.-flag cruise ships, most of these passengers will be sailing on

foreign-flag vessels [USDOC ITA 2000]. U.S. safety regulations do not always apply to foreign

vessels, especially outside of U.S. waters, prompting safety concerns for Americans traveling

on vessels over which the United States may have limited jurisdiction. The increased

passenger capacity of cruise ships has raised questions regarding the adequacy of

international passenger vessel safety requirements. These requirements will need to be

evaluated to ensure the continued safety of cruise ships operating out of U.S. ports.

As conventional land transportation arteries grow more congested, ferry passenger transport

is attracting renewed attention, particularly interest in fast ferries. Even though overall ferry

traffic has declined slightly in recent years, fast-ferry operations have experienced some

growth. From 1993 to 1997, fast-ferry passenger traffic increased at a rate of 6.8 percent per

year [USDOT MARAD 1999]. The USCG’s focus on targeting human errors (through domestic

and international programs) as a means to reduce accidents and fatalities, likely will result in

specific safety oversight of high-speed ferries and other technologically advanced vessels.

Safety Advances: Ships are required to receive broadcasts of maritime safety information,

which may prevent some maritime disasters from taking place, while enhancing rescue

operations for those that do occur. By 2005, the USCG will have a new generation of

technology that will eliminate more than 65 existing coverage gaps and reduce search times—

in essence, taking the search out of search and rescue—increasing the probability of

successful rescues [USDOT USCG 2000b]. If the 2005 target is reached, then by 2025 advances

in technology will completely eliminate coverage gaps and rescuing efforts will be highly

successful.

Pipeline Safety

As urban sprawl has encroached deeper into surrounding land over the past 25 years, risks

posed by the nation’s network of nearly 2 million miles of pipelines and their impact on the

environment has become a major public concern [USDOT RSPA 2000c]. Two pipeline incidents during the past two years have raised further public concerns: the Bellingham, Washington, incident in June 1999 and the Carlsbad, New Mexico, incident in August 2000. In

April 2000, the Secretary of Transportation proposed new legislation that would require: a)

internal inspection, pressure testing, or other best achievable technology performed on a

periodic basis; b) clearly defined criteria for analyzing the inspection of testing and the repair

of any problems found; c) measures (e.g., emergency flow-restricting devices or leak detection)

that prevent and mitigate the consequences of a leak; and d) providing the public and local
3-54

communities with access to the information they need to ensure their protection from potential

pipeline accidents. The proposed legislation includes provisions for expanded partnerships

with state regulatory agencies, improved collection of safety and accident data, and tougher

penalties for operators found to violate safety regulations. In November 2000, the USDOT

issued strong new requirements for large hazardous liquid pipeline operators to regularly

inspect and promptly repair pipelines in populated and environmentally sensitive areas and

to take systematic steps to detect and prevent leaks. Also, the USDOT is taking steps to

implement stronger pipeline safety standards, including improved enforcement, enhanced

federal-state partnerships, increased public access to information, and more innovative

technology. Together, these actions will help ensure that our oil and gas pipeline system is

sound, our communities safe, and our environment protected.

In 1975, 16 people were killed and 208 were injured in almost 1,700 pipeline incidents.

During that decade, excavation damage was estimated to cause more than half of all pipeline

incidents [NTSB 1998].

Other major causes of

pipeline incidents included material failure and

corrosion. Of particular

concern were the many

low-pressure natural gas

distribution lines in towns

and cities that were made

of century-old, uncoated

cast iron that was increasingly subject to failure.

During the era of pipeline

construction, the industry

was governed mostly by

voluntary standards. But,

by 1975, the USDOT had

issued regulations covering pipeline design,

construction, operation, and

maintenance for both natural

gas and interstate hazardousliquid pipelines.

Today, there are far fewer

pipeline incidents. These

incidents dropped nearly

80 percent from 1975 through

1998 (figure 3-47), and the

loss of product due to accidental ruptures has been cut

by more than half [USDOT

RSPA 2000c]. However, the

number of fatalities associated with pipeline incidents

has generally risen (figure 3-48).

Pipeline Incidents: 1975-98

Figure 3-47

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration, Office of Pipeline Safety, personal communication, 1999, available at http://

ops.dot.gov/stats.htm. Number of incidents

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Liquid pipeline

Gas pipeline

Fatalities in Pipeline Incidents: 1975-98

Figure 3-48

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration, Office of Pipeline Safety, personal communication, 1999, available at http://

ops.dot.gov/stats.htm. Number of fatalities

0

10

20

30

40

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Liquid pipeline

Gas pipeline
3-55

Outside force damage, usually from excavation, still is the leading cause of pipeline failures,

averaging 39 percent of the total, followed by corrosion with an average of 20 percent [USDOT

RSPA 2000c]. Other causes of failure are incorrect operation, construction, or material defect;

equipment malfunction; and failed pipe. To reduce the problem of excavation damage, onecall notification centers have been established in 48 states and the District of Columbia [NTSB

1998]. Efforts are underway by the Research and Special Programs Administration (RSPA),

state officials, and industry to raise awareness of the one-call centers in order to lower the

number of incidents caused by

excavation.

Major advances in the materials used for pipes and welding, inspections, and the installation

process over the past 25 years have reduced the number of leaks and made those that take

place less severe. New corrosion coatings and new application processes have produced

dramatically longer lives for pipes.

Computer technology—Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition systems—continuously

provides today’s dispatchers with temperature, pressure, and flow rates along many pipelines. This information is vital for the daily operation of these pipelines and can help pinpoint potential and real problems as they occur.

Keys to the Future

The conflict between expanding residential communities and pipeline operations is likely to

increase as the U.S. population continues to grow and metropolitan areas expand into the

rural areas where pipelines are predominately located. The consequential crowding of

pipelines will increase the need to identify sensitive locations in high-density population

areas (which may need special attention in the

unlikely event of an incident) and to prevent

damage due to excavation.

A multiagency effort, the geographic

information system-based National Pipeline

Mapping System will help pinpoint where

pipelines are located, providing an analytical

tool to mitigate risks to environmentally

sensitive and populated areas and will help

educate the public about the risks of pipelines

in their communities. Efforts are underway

now to define the data, which will result in

better information for identifying safety trends,

targeting where problems are most likely to

occur, and monitoring how well applied

solutions are working. Further technological

advances will be used to improve pipeline

safety. Industry will be equipped with

advanced computer control systems that

monitor pipeline integrity and deliver pipeline

products more efficiently. New improvements

in aerial leak detection technology will

complement these efforts.

A technology known as “smart pigs” promises

to be the primary inspection tool for pipelines

well into the 21st century [USDOT RSPA

2000c]. Smart pigs have been used for at least

10 years, and their use and their capabilities

Smart pigs ensure pipeline safety by using magnetic or

ultrasonic scanning to inspect the internal and external walls of

a pipeline. They can be used to inspect pipe sections, as

shown, or they can be inserted in to existing pipelines where

they are moved by the flowing material, avoiding the need for

excavating or flow stoppage to inspect pipelines.

Battelle
3-56

are growing. Smart pigs will be increasingly used to detect a variety of pipeline integrity

concerns such as pipe wall thinning, excavation hits to pipelines or other mechanical

damage, material defects, and cracks. Efforts in the area of acoustical monitoring will provide

real-time detection of excavation-related damage. Complementary to these efforts, in the future,

Global Positioning System (GPS) technology will work with smart pig technology to

accurately map pipelines and pinpoint potential problems so they may be corrected before

incidents occur [Wilke 1998]. A longer range effort is underway to develop a single smart pig

that can detect corrosion and mechanical defects.

Smart pigs are effective for about 90 percent of hazardous liquid pipelines, but they have more

limited use on natural gas pipelines because these pipelines tend to have interconnected pipe

segments of varying diameters. Alternative inspection technologies will be needed for

pipelines that cannot accommodate smart pigs due to varying pipe sizes and configurations.

Based on historical trends, we anticipate an 8 percent reduction every five years in the number

of reported natural gas transmission system leaks through the year 2025, as the chart depicts

(figure 3-49), or an overall reduction of about 36 percent in the number of system leaks from

the year 2000 through the year 2025.

Smart Pigs

Smart pigs— computerized magnetic or ultrasonic mechanical devices that are pushed along by

flowing material inside the pipeline— inspect internal and external pipe wall conditions and the

thickness of the metal wall. They allow pipeline operators to inspect for damage without excavating

the pipe or stopping product flow.

Types of pigs:

Magnetic flux leakage pigs detect pipe wall thinning or loss of material, which usually means

corrosion. Under certain conditions, they can detect some types of mechanical damage, such

as gouges, but cannot characterize or size mechanical damage to determine its severity. They

can be used in both gas and hazardous-liquid pipelines and have been available since the mid1960s.

Figure 3-49

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs

Administration, personal communication December 5, 2000.

2000 2005 2010

Number of system leaks

2015 2020 2025

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline System Leaks

continued next page

Box 3-13
3-57

Box 3-13 continued

Reported Hazardous Materials Incidents: 1975-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 3-50

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration, Office

of Hazardous Material Safety, Hazardous Materials Information System (Washington, DC: 1999). Number of incidents

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Total

Highway

1998

Ultrasonic pigs detect corrosion and cracks in the pipe wall. They also can detect mechanical

damage, although they cannot determine the severity of the damage with a high level of

confidence. These devices require a liquid film between the ultrasonic transducer and the pipe

wall. Therefore, they can be used only in liquid pipelines.

Elastic wave pigs detect cracks, stress corrosion cracking, external coating faults, and

other axially oriented pipe defects. The ultrasonic transducers used in elastic wave tools

have rolling contact with the pipe wall. They do not require a liquid film and can be used

in gas pipelines as well as in hazardous-liquid pipelines.

Geometry pigs detect changes in the internal size of new and operating pipelines. Ovality,

dents, and buckles can be detected in both gas and hazardous-liquid pipelines.

Camera pigs allow visual inspection of the inside bottom quadrant of gas pipelines by

producing photographs of the inside surface.

Pipe-curvature pigs determine position, orientation, curvature, ovality, dents, and wrinkles

in gas pipelines and those that transport liquids. These devices can detect pipe movement

after seismic events.

Hazardous Materials Safety

Over the last 25 years, the transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) has been the

subject of increased scrutiny. Today, an estimated 800,000 U.S. hazmat shipments are made

daily [USDOT RSPA 1998]. These shipments, in combination with a growing population,

urban sprawl, and increasing air-, road-, rail-, and water-traffic congestion, fuel concern for

the safe transportation of hazardous materials and the potential consequences of a

catastrophic event.

The Hazardous Materials Transportation Act of 1974, signed into law in 1975, gave the

USDOT expanded power to regulate hazmat transportation. The USDOT has the authority to

determine which materials pose unreasonable transportation risks to public health and safety.
3-58

loss of aircraft control. Chemical oxygen generators were subsequently banned as freight

aboard any passenger aircraft. If transported on cargo aircraft, such materials must be

shipped in an inaccessible compartment that is required to have smoke and fire detection and

suppression systems. Empty oxygen generators were banned from all aircraft, both cargo and

passenger.

Although the number of hazmat incidents reported annually to USDOT is growing due to

long-term traffic growth and better reporting compliance, the level of serious incidents has

remained nearly constant (figure 3-51). Serious incidents are defined as one involving a

fatality or major injury due to a hazardous material; closure of a major transportation artery or

facility or evacuation of six or more people due to the presence of hazardous material; or a

vehicle accident or derailment resulting in the release of hazardous material.

Efforts to improve data collection, management, and allocation of USDOT resources are also

underway. Efforts by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) are yielding much greater

detail about nationwide hazardous materials flows, as well as better hazmat vehicle use

information, and the modal distribution of hazardous materials (table 3-5).

Regulations are issued by the USDOT covering training, packaging, hazard communication,

operations, enforcement, emergency response, and incident reporting.

In 1975, more than 15 million barrels of petroleum products, the largest single component of

transported hazmat, were being shipped daily across the country [USDOE 1997], as were

hundreds of thousands of tons of hazardous chemicals [Maio & Liu 1987]. Most hazmat

tonnage was carried by rail, water, and pipeline modes, but highway transport—accelerated

by growth of the Interstate Highway System—resulted in the greatest number of individual

shipments. Most hazardous materials incidents, defined as any unintentional release of

material (or evacuation based on potential release), took place on highways (figure 3-49).

Hazmat safety regulation has undergone profound change since 1975, sparked by several

major events, including the 1984 toxic gas release in Bhopal, India. That incident resulted in

approximately 3,800 deaths and prompted a new subclass of hazardous materials—those

that are classified as poisonous by inhalation. The Bhopal incident also led to passage of the

1986 Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act, which gave local communities

a greater ability to learn what hazardous materials were being stored in their communities.

Moreover, the incident catalyzed emergency response planning efforts at the federal, state, and

local levels.

In 1990, the Hazardous Materials Transportation Uniform Safety Act required certain hazmat

shippers and carriers to pay a fee to register with the USDOT. According to RSPA, changes in

the registration and fee assessment program, authorized in the 1990 Act, have provided a

projected 50 percent increase in funding, as expanded registration requirements swelled the

number of registered hazmat shippers and carriers from about 27,000 to 45,000. This money

has been used to fund emergency planning and training grants with enhanced capabilities for

identifying, controlling, and responding to risks posed by hazmat shipments. This registration program also created a funding mechanism for federal grants to support local hazmat

safety planning and training. Since 1993, these grants have provided training to about

815,000 people who respond to hazardous materials incidents [USDOT RSPA 2000a].

The May 1996 ValuJet crash, resulting in 110 deaths, again heightened public awareness of

hazmat transport risks. Improperly marked and stowed chemical oxygen generators aboard

the flight triggered intense heat in an inaccessible cargo bay, causing a rapid fire, smoke, and
3-59

Serious Hazardous Materials Incidents and All Hazardous Materials Incidents:

1990-98 (Annual totals)

Figure 3-51

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration, Office of

Hazardous Materials Safety, Hazardous Materials Information System, 1999. Serious incidents All incidents

300

400

500

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Hazardous Materials Shipment Characteristics by Mode of

Transportation for the United States: 1997

Table 3-5

Mode of transportation Number Percent

Ton-miles

All modes

Single modes

Truck

For-hire truck

Private truck

Rail

Water

Air (including truck and air)

Pipeline

Multiple modes

Parcel, U.S. Postal Service or courier

Other multiple modes

Other and unknown modes

263,809

258,912

74,939

45,234

28,847

74,711

68,212

95

n/a

3,061

78

2,982

1,837

100.0

98.1

28.4

17.1

10.9

28.3

25.9

 0.04

–

1.2

–

1.1

0.7

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,

1997 Commodity Flow Survey data; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census

Bureau, 1997 Commodity Flow Survey, Hazardous Materials, EC97TCF-US(HM)

(Washington, DC: 1999).
3-60

Keys to the Future

A number of current trends will continue to shape how the USDOT fulfills its hazardous

materials mandate over the next 25 years. Hazmat shipment growth, continued globalization

of trade, changes in the workforce, and improvements in materials technology and IT/

telecommunications applications are among these.

The number of U.S. hazmat shipments is expected to grow from about 1 million daily to well

over 1.5 million per day. In terms of tonnage, the annual volume of hazardous materials

transported for commerce in the United States is forecast to reach 5.7 billion tons by 2025.

Using the 1996 baseline figures of 3.2 tons of hazardous materials shipments, the Chemical

Manufacturers Association projects that aggregate hazmat shipments will grow at roughly at

2 percent per year (figure 3-52).

Curbs in fossil fuel use may slow growth in the shipment of petroleum products, the largest

component of hazmat traffic. However, an expanding economy will pressure growth, and

continued changes in chemical and biological technology present an ever-increasing list of

products with which the government and the shipping community must be familiar.

By 2025 the modal share of hazmat transportation will change as well. By one set of forecasts

(the DRI/McGraw Hill) air and intermodal shipments are expected to gain an increasingly

significant share of the hazmat market. As high value-added chemical products gain market

share and demand for time-definite delivery grows, hazmat is more likely to be shipped by air

and truck modes.

Over the next 25-year period, air and intermodal movements are likely to double the

current growth rates to meet the increasing demand in the high value-added segments of

the chemical industry. Small-package and on-bulk containers will also grow at a rapid

rate.

The shift to the air and truck modes will be balanced by a slight decline in the share of

water and pipeline transportation of hazmat. Rail is forecast to maintain its market share

of about 6 percent. Truckload/LTL highway transportation is anticipated to gain market

Figure 3-52

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration,

personal communication, December 5, 2000.

0

2000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Tons of shipment

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Actual and Forecast Hazardous Materials Shipments
3-61

share of moving chemical products. For moving petroleum, trucks are also forecast to

continue to increase their market share.

Radioactive shipments, considered to be specialized hazmat traffic, will remain about 1

percent of total annual shipments. Although these shipments are a small proportion of the

traffic, they still may pose increased safety challenges. Ongoing legislative efforts to establish

a permanent spent fuel waste repository in the United States could increase the number of

spent fuel shipments as much as fourfold annually by the year 2025, from 100 to more than

400 shipments. Combined with transport and burial of other nuclear wastes at the Waste

Isolation Pilot Project site in New Mexico, an increased number of highly radioactive

shipments will traverse the U.S. rail, highway and, to a lesser extent, waterway networks.

Along with growth in the U.S. economy and its hazmat traffic base, continued globalization of

trade will pose additional safety challenges. Not only are export and import trade shipments

expected to grow in number, but the complexity of that traffic will grow as well. Differing

hazmat regulations, safety policies, and technological proficiencies will present continuing

challenges to ensuring the safety of global hazmat traffic. Current efforts to harmonize U.S.

hazmat regulations with internationally endorsed practices must keep pace with the safety

demands placed on the transportation network.

As changes in the workforce continue, the need for education and training in the hazmat

community will also increase. The U.S. transportation system, including the hazmat sector,

will be characterized by an aging population and higher levels of turnover among employees.

Coupled with higher demand for hazmat shipments and, consequently, increased technical

knowledge, there will be an acute need for education and training of hazmat employees by the

year 2025. As underscored in the 1996 Valuejet accident, the need for shipper and air carrier

personnel to be knowledgeable about the USDOT’s hazardous materials regulations will be

critical.

Technology will play a vital role in future hazmat transportation. Offsetting continued

development of new hazardous materials and growth in their traffic will be improvements in

materials technology. Stronger, more durable materials will make the packaging—for example,

boxes, canisters, barrels, containers, and tank cars—more resistant to damage during normal

handling and transport, and even under accident conditions. Other technology advances may

also help prevent hazmat incidents from occurring in the first place. Computer software, for

example, may improve the ability to translate shipping papers, packaging labels, and other

documentation and communication media into other languages or into a single, common

trading language.

For monitoring hazmat traffic and managing incidents when they do occur, improved

information and telecommunications technology will be critical. Tracking sensitive cargos

will be easier and more affordable as various global satellite systems become operational and

as wireless handsets become increasingly “connected” to the Internet. Similarly, wireless

telecommunications and other information technology advances will improve the ability of

emergency response personnel to manage events at hazardous materials accident sites.

Challenges to the USDOT’s ability to manage hazmat traffic and trade will grow as

globalization increases. Helping to meet these challenges will be continued improvements in

hazmat education and training, aided by a confluence of technology improvements and

deployment.
3-62

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Globalization

chapter 4

“In the Year 2025, all of the transportation modes will continue to play

critical roles in the global economy, whether for transporting goods

over long distances between nations or for shorter movements to and

from intermodal terminals.”

Secretary Rodney Slater

October 2000

“Transportation is the industry that connects other industries ... it is

the key to globalization.”

Lawrence H. Summers, Secretary U.S. Department of Treasury

International Transportation Symposium

Oct. 10, 2000, Washington, DC

4-1

Globalization

chapter 4

In the last quarter-century, a host of political, economic, and

technological changes noticeably accelerated the trend toward

globalization. Political changes included the end of the Vietnam War

(1975) and the Cold War (with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and

the Soviet Union in 1991). Complementing these political developments, an increasing number of countries abandoned their policies of

protectionism and lowered barriers to free trade. At the same time,

technological innovations in communications and transportation

facilitated the flow of goods, people, and information across the globe.

Today, the rise of Internet commerce is driving the expansion of the

global marketplace, underscoring the need for a transportation

system that is international in reach.

Faster and cheaper transportation systems allow multinational

corporations to build manufacturing facilities across the globe while

maintaining scheduled, frequent deliveries of parts and finished

products. For example, advances in the aviation system allow

businesses to substitute just-in-time deliveries from remote manufacturing plants in place of large inventories. Today, about one-third of

world trade consists of shipments between branches of multinational

companies [UN Annual].

The extent of this manufacturing expansion is visible in many

countries, including Mexico, China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey, and

Pakistan. In 1980, manufactured goods as a share of exports exceeded 50 percent only in

Globalization involves the

increasing international

integration of production

processes and the market for

goods and services. It results

from the liberalization of

national economies,

reduction of trade barriers,

freer movement of foreign

direct investment (FDI)

across the world, expanding

role of multinational firms in

international production and

growing intrafirm trade

across national boundaries.

Lata Chatterjee

Transportation, Globalization and

Competitiveness: A Review and Synthesis of

Literature, Bureau of Transportation

Statistics, August 2000.

Source: The World Bank, World Development Indicators (Washington, DC: 1999), p. 204, table 4.5.

Proportion of Manufactured Goods as a Share of Total Value of

Merchandise Exports: 1980 and 1997 Percent

0

20

40

60

80

100

1997

1980

Mexico China India South Korea Indonesia Thailand Turkey Pakistan

Figure 4-1
4-2

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, International Transactions Account,

available at http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dil.htm, as of May 5, 2000.

Imports and Exports as a Percent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP):

1975 and 1999 (Chained 1996 $)

Figure 4-2 Billions of U.S. dollars

500

0

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1975 1999 (preliminary)

30 percent

of GDP 

18 percent 

of GDP 

Foreign investment payments

Receipts

Service imports

Service exports

Goods imports

Goods exports

India and South Korea, and were as low as 2 percent in Indonesia (figure 4-1). However, by

1997, manufactured goods exceeded 70 percent of exports in seven of these eight countries.

The exception was Indonesia, where manufactured goods grew from 2 percent to an amazing

42 percent of exports by 1997 [World Bank 1999].

Recognizing the need for a bolder vision to realize a truly

global transport system, Transportation Secretary Rodney

Slater hosted two international conferences in 1999 and 2000:

Aviation in the 21st Century – Beyond Open Skies Ministerial,

in Chicago, and the International Transportation Symposium,

in Washington, DC. Each attended by representatives from

more than 90 countries, these conferences created an environment conducive to addressing global challenges of the coming

decades.

Growth of the Global Economy

The world’s economy has grown enormously, with the sum of all nations’ Gross National

Product (GNP) rising from $1.3 trillion in 1960 to $29 trillion in 1997 [Worldwatch Institute

2000a]. During the same period, the Gross World Product (GWP) increased from $10 trillion

and $37 trillion and exports’ share of the GWP grew from 7 percent to 15 percent [Worldwatch

Institute 2000b]. Today, the transportation sector represents 11 percent of the overall U.S.

Gross Domestic Product and accounts for “1 in 7” jobs in the U.S. economy.

This pattern was evident in the United States. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce

(USDOC), in the last 25 years, U.S. imports and exports grew from $726 billion in 1975 to $2.6

trillion in 1999 —well over 300 percent (figure 4-2). Transportation equipment was the second

largest import sector in 1998, accounting for 19 percent of all U.S. merchandise imports

[USITC 1999].

China, with which we had limited trade in 1975, is now our fourth largest trading partner,

surpassed only by Canada, Japan, and Mexico (table 4-1). South Korea, Singapore, and

Taiwan have joined the top 10 list of U.S. trading partners. Iran, the Netherlands, and

Venezuela have dropped from the top 10 list.

“Transportation is the

industry that connects other

industries...it is the key to

globalization.”

Lawrence H. Summers

Secretary, U.S. Department of Treasury

International Transportation Symposium

Washington, DC

Oct. 10, 2000
4-3

“Globalization involves the integration of free

markets, nation-states and information

technologies to a degree never before witnessed,

in a way that is enabling individuals,

corporations and countries to reach around the

world farther, faster, deeper and cheaper than

ever.”

Thomas L. Friedman

NY Times Magazine, Mar. 28, 1999

Manifesto for the Fast World

The Phenomenon of Globalization

During the past few decades, the most significant development in the world economy has been the

globalization of economic activities. Globalization has been the outcome of four key processes that

have shaped and changed the pattern of economic activities within nations and around the globe:

1. expanding political cooperation among countries,

2. changing strategies of transnational corporations,

3. dynamic interactions between businesses and states, and

4. rapid technological advancement.

Through a complex set of interactions, these processes have dramatically increased interdependence within the world economy.

The emergence of globally dispersed production networks is the eventual outcome of the open

international trade initiated under U.S. leadership at Bretton Woods, N.H. in 1944 with the

creation of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and later the General Agreement on

Tariffs and Trade, now the World Trade Organization. During the past decade, the formation of

regional trading blocs such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the European

Union, and Mercosur, has accelerated the pace of globalization.

Transnational corporations have been key to the emergence of the global economy. These firms

have expanded global production networks, increased intra-firm trade, and redefined globalization

to involve more than a mere geographical extension of economic activity across national borders.

It involves integrating the functions of different economic activities dispersed around the world.

Decisions by transnational corporations on where and how to invest and manage their resources

directly shape the geography of the world economy.

The changing relationship between governments and businesses has created economic conditions

that have enhanced access to markets and resources and changed the rules of operation in the

increasingly competitive global economy. Significant changes in the governance of transportation

and trade policies include: economic deregulation, privatization of infrastructure, open skies

agreements, and adoption of international standards and trade practices.

Recent technological developments in transportation and communications have fundamentally

transformed distance and time between all parts of the world. Today, the global economy is more

interrelated because of jet aircraft, growth in the mega ships, and containerization. These advancements and innovations in telecommunications have reduced the costs of interregional connections and the flow of information. In today’s globalized economy, transportation is becoming

increasingly faster, more flexible, and more predictable within a narrow time range.

Source: Lakshmanan, T.R., William P. Anderson, and Lata Chatterjee, Boston University, Center for Transportation

Studies, personal communication, October 2000.
4-4

Top 10 U.S. Merchandise Trade Partners, by Value: 1975 and 1998

(Millions of chained 1996 $)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States (Washington, DC: Various years).

Table 4-1

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

109,738

52,470

26,510

20,750

20,518

14,670

13,310

13,205

12,988

11,605

Canada

Japan

Germany

United Kingdom

Mexico

Venezuela

Italy

Netherlands

France

Iran

54,360

23,908

12,985

11,318

12,853

5,608

7,168

10,483

7,578

8,110

55,378

28,563

13,525

9,433

7,665

9,063

6,143

2,723

5,410

3,495

1975

Rank Country Exports Imports Total

Figure 4-3

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business (Washington, DC: July 1999).

U.S. Direct Investment Abroad: 1998

186 – 3,999

4,000 – 10,999

11,000 – 24,999

25,000 – 79,999

80,000 – 178,648

No data

Millions of dollars

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

321,217

174,473

168,507

82,851

74,172

71,647

49,742

40,551

39,261

33,010

Canada

Japan

Mexico

China

Germany

United Kingdom

Taiwan

France

South Korea

Singapore

151,618

56,151

76,640

13,830

25,843

37,898

17,612

17,196

16,042

15,203

169,598

118,322

91,867

69,021

48,329

33,749

32,129

23,355

23,218

17,807

1998

Rank Country Exports Imports Total
4-5

Investment by foreign companies in the United States has grown as has U.S. investment

abroad. In fact, U.S. foreign investment has grown, in real terms, from an average of $45.3 billion per year in the 1970s to an average of $117.5 billion in the first half of the 1990s (in

constant 1990 dollars), and from 1.04 percent of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to

1.64 percent [PPI 2000]. Figures 4-3 and 4-4 show U.S. investment abroad and foreign direct

investment into the United States, respectively, for 1998.

In the early 1990s, about 20 percent of the total output of U.S. firms was produced outside of

the country [The Economist 1998]; this figure seems likely to grow. In 1997, U.S. News and World

Report reported that 82 percent of the money spent by U.S. businesses each year on fixed

investment—plant and equipment—was spent in Asia, compared with only 33 percent

10 years earlier [Holstein et al. 1997]. A good example of globalization of economy is the

automobile manufacturing industry—discussed in the following section.

The phenomenon of globalization is not without its drawbacks, however. As world economies become increasingly integrated and reliant on a transportation infrastructure that is

responsive and flexible, transportation systems and the sophisticated electronic information

and communications systems that make their day-to-day operations possible become more

attractive as terrorist targets. Threats against highway, rail, transit, and aviation systems;

piracy; disruption of the Internet and cyber-based information systems; and interference with

Global Positioning Systems and Intelligent Transportation Systems are growing concerns that

are discussed in detail in Chapter 7, National Security.

The Automobile Industry

The past quarter century was a period of turmoil and challenge for the nation’s automobile

manufacturers. Faced with an energy crisis that changed consumer buying habits, at least

temporarily; continuing environmental pressures; and the growing success of Japanese and

European imports, the industry retooled its manufacturing processes, cars, marketing, and

financial structure.

Figure 4-4

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States 1999

(Washington, DC: 1999).

Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: 1998

986 – 5,499

5,500 – 12,999

13,000 – 24,999

25,000 – 49,999

50,000 – 91,788

Millions of dollars
4-6

In 1975, the United States had four major automobile manufacturers: Ford Motor Company,

General Motors, Chrysler Corporation, and American Motors Corporation. Of these four

manufacturers, Chrysler was hit the hardest by industry changes, needing both a federal

intervention and wholesale management changes to survive. In 1987, Chrysler bought

American Motors, and in 1998, Chrysler Corporation was acquired by Germany-based

Daimler-Benz to form DaimlerChrysler. Today, only two U.S.-owned automobile

manufacturers—Ford Motor Company and General Motors—remain in an industry that has

global connections and cross-ownership (table 4-2). Changing the essential nature of the “Big

3” as has been historically known — while still maintaining Detroit, Michigan, as the “Automobile Capital of the World.”

Despite the many challenges in the auto manufacturing industry, vehicle purchases continued at a rapid pace in the United States. The introduction of the minivan in 1983 and the

sport utility vehicle (SUV) in 1990 stimulated high demand in the domestic market. However,

imports and transplants—foreign cars built in U.S. plants—now make up more than half of

all new car sales (figure 4-5).

Individual companies have been seeking new markets in both developed and less developed

countries. They are working with foreign partners to develop cars tailored to specific markets,

as well as to produce cars that can be sold in all markets. At the same time, they are advancing efforts to harmonize vehicle standards around the world.

A Short Timeline of the Global Auto Industry

1970 Volkswagen exports its five-millionth vehicle to the United States. Mazda begins U.S. sales

operations.

1972 American Imported Automobile Dealers Association (AIADA) is founded.

1973 Datsun dealers sell one millionth vehicle in the United States.

1976 First Honda Accord is named Motor Trend magazine’s “ Import Car of the Year.”

1978 Volkswagen’s Westmoreland, Pennsylvania, plant opens for production of the Volkswagen

Rabbit, making it the first international automaker to build vehicles in the United States.

1980 AIADA becomes the American International Automobile Dealers Association (AIADA).

1981 BMW becomes the first European automaker to establish its own subsidiary in Japan.

1982 Honda of America Manufacturing begins U.S. auto production in Marysville, Ohio.

* DaimlerChrysler is also headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany.

Source: Manufacturers’ websites, as of May 2000.

Global Brands Owned by Car Manufacturers Headquartered in the

United States: 2000

Table 4-2

Company Global brands

DaimlerChrysler*

General Motors

Ford

Mercedes-Benz, Chrysler, Plymouth, Jeep, Dodge, Smart

Chevrolet, Chevy Trucks, Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Buick, Cadillac,

GMC, Saturn, Opel, Vauxhall, Saab, Isuzu

Ford, Volvo, Mazda, Lincoln, Mercury, Jaguar, Aston Martin

(continued on next page)

Box 4-1
4-7

Mitsubishi Motor Sales of America, Inc., begins selling cars and trucks in the United States.

Mazda dealers sell one millionth passenger car in the United States.

1983 Nissan (formerly Datsun) begins vehicle production in Smyrna, Tennessee.

1984 New United Motor Manufacturing, Inc. (NUMMI), a joint venture between Toyota and

General Motors, begins production in Fremont, California.

1985 Diamond-Star Motors Corporation is incorporated as a joint venture between Mitsubishi

Motors Corporation and Chrysler Corporation.

Suzuki of America Automotive Corporation is established, and the Samurai is introduced to

the U.S. market.

1986 Range Rover enters the U.S. market. Honda of America Manufacturing begins engine

production in Anna, Ohio.

Hyundai introduces its first vehicle in the U.S. and sets a new sales record for an importer’s

first year in the U.S. market.

Toyota begins building Corollas in the United States.

1988 Honda begins export of U.S.-built automobiles to Japan.

Mazda Motor Manufacturing (USA) Corporation begins vehicle production in Flat Rock,

Michigan.

Diamond-Star Motors Corporation begins vehicle production in Normal, Illinois.

Toyota Motor Manufacturing (USA), Inc., begins vehicle production in Georgetown, Kentucky.

1989 U.S. Treasury Department exempts four-door minivans and sport utility vehicles from the

25 percent tariff.

Subaru-Isuzu Automotive, Inc., a joint venture between Subaru and Isuzu, begins vehicle

production in Lafayette, Indiana.

Honda of America Manufacturing begins production of vehicles in East Liberty, Ohio.

Nissan in Smyrna, Tennessee, produces one millionth vehicle.

Ford Motor Company acquires Jaguar.

1990 Honda of America Manufacturing begins U.S. production of right-hand drive vehicles for

export to Japan.

Saab and General Motors establish a joint venture.

1991 Mitsubishi Motors purchases Chrysler Corporation’s 50 percent stake in Diamond-Star Motors.

1992 Mazda Motor Manufacturing (USA) Corporation becomes a joint venture between Mazda and

Ford, renamed Auto Alliance International, Inc.

1993 Mercedes-Benz Project, Inc., is founded in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

1994 Kia Motor Corporation introduces its first Kia nameplate vehicle, the Sephia, to the U.S. market.

The first U.S.-built BMW rolls off the production line in Greer, South Carolina.

1995 Honda celebrates the sale of its ten millionth car in the U.S. and introduces the new 1996 Civic,

which has 93 percent domestic content, the highest ever for an international nameplate

automobile.

Toyota unveils the GM-built Toyota Cavalier for sale in Japan.

1998 Toyota opens a plant in Lafayette, Indiana, to produce the Tundra Truck series.

Daimler-Benz buys Chrysler Corporation.

Box 4-1 continued
4-8

In 1975, the American automobile industry faced the

challenge of developing cars to meet new emissions

standards under the Clean Air Act of 1970 and to

comply with the fuel economy requirements of the

Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, while

still appealing to the American driving public.

By 1975, U.S. auto manufacturers were finding that

higher gasoline prices and the memory of gas lines

were eroding the traditional American desire for

large, high-performance cars. Japanese and European imports were better suited to meet the new

demand for smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. In

1975, 18 percent of the cars sold in the United States

were imports, a market share almost 20 percent

higher than in previous years, but well below future

growth. No “foreign” cars were built in the United

States [ORNL 1999]. However, the global networking of the industry had already begun with General

Motors abandoning its policy against partnerships

and alliances to acquire a substantial share in Isuzu

Motors of Japan.

The American automobile industry continues to face

the same major challenges of the last 25 years—

producing fuel-efficient, low-pollution vehicles that

“Foreign” Vehicles Built in the USA

Source: The American International Automobile Dealers

Association, available at http://www.aiada.org/pubs/

poster/usa.htm, as of Apr. 26, 2000.

Table 4-3

Location Manufacturer

Country

association

Avon Lake, OH

East Liberty, OH

Edison, NJ

Flat Rock, MI

Fremont, CA

Georgetown, KY

Lafayette, IN

Marysville, OH

Normal, IL

Shreveport, LA

Smyrna, TN

Spartanburg, SC

Tuscaloosa, AL

Westmoreland, PA

Nissan

Honda Acura

Mazda

Mazda

Toyota

Toyota

Subaru

Isuzu Honda

Toyota

Honda

Mitsubishi

Isuzu

Nissan

BMW

Mercedes

Volkswagen

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

Germany

Germany

Germany

Figure 4-5

Source: American Automobile Manufacturers Association, Motor Vehicle Facts and Figures (Detroit, MI:

Various years); U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Databook

(Oak Ridge, TN: 1999).

New Automobile Sales in the United States: 1976-95

(Annual totals) Thousands

Domestic

Foreign Transplant

Import

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995
4-9

appeal to the American public

and compete with increasingly

popular imports.

Industry globalization has proceeded through the two-pronged

trend of cross-ownership and

cross-border manufacturing. In

1978, the first foreign car produced in the United States rolled

off Volkswagen’s assembly line in

Westmoreland, Pennsylvania.

Ford purchased a share of Mazda

Motors in 1979. Tables 4-3 and 4-

4 show data on current crossborder manufacturing facilities in

the United States, Mexico, and

Canada.

In 1982, the Japanese government

voluntarily initiated an import

control program to protect the U.S.

auto industry while it retooled.

These controls reduced imports

from 28 percent of the market to

19 percent. However, the production of transplants rose from

1.4 percent of the market to more

than 16 percent [ORNL 1999].

Japanese car manufacturers,

alone, have invested more than

$14 billion in U.S. manufacturing

facilities. Today, excluding

exports to Canada, Japanese

name-brand cars comprise more

than half of the vehicles exported

from the United States, and

Honda is the single largest

exporter of cars from the United

States, [Japan Auto 1999].

Imports peaked in 1986 at

4.2 million vehicles—more than

26 percent of the automobile

market. Eighty percent of these

imports were Japanese, which

made up 20 percent of the total

market [USDOC 2000].

U.S. auto manufacturers fared

better in the 1980s as memories of

the energy crisis faded, and much

of the American public returned

to larger cars and luxury vehicles, categories dominated by domestic products. The American

manufacturers surpassed their foreign competitors with the introduction of the minivan by

Chrysler in 1983 and the SUV by Ford in 1990. Both of these products were quickly embraced

by the American public. But it was not long before foreign manufacturers followed suit. By

“Domestic” Vehicles Built in Mexico and Canada: 2000

Source: The American International Automobile Dealers Association, available

at http://www.aiada.org/pubs/poster/mexico.htm, as of Apr. 26, 2000.

Table 4-4

Location Make Manufacturer

Cuautitlan, Mexico

Hermosilla, Mexico

Lago Alberta, Mexico

Saltillo, Mexico

Silao, Mexico

Tolucca, Mexico

Boisbriand, Quebec

Brampton, Ontario

Ingersoll, Ontario

Oakville, Ontario

Oshawa, Ontario

St. Therese, Quebec

St. Thomas, Ontario

Windsor, Ontario

Contour

Mystique

Escort

Mercury Tracer

Dodge Ram Club Cab

Dodge Ram Club Cab

Chevy Suburban

Chevy Tahoe

GMC Yukon

Sebring

Neon

Firebird

Concorde

LHS

New Yorker

Dodge Intrepid

Eagle Vision

Geo Metro

Geo Tracker

Windstar

F-150 Pickup

Lumina

Monte Carlo

Buick Regal

Chevy C/K

GMC Sierra

Chevy Camaro

Crown Victoria

Mercury Grand Marquis

Dodge Caravan

Grand Caravan

Plymouth Voyager

Grand Voyager

Dodge Ram Van

Ram Wagon Van

Ford

Ford

Chrysler

Chrysler

General Motors

Chrysler

General Motors

Chrysler

General Motors

Ford

General Motors

General Motors

Ford

Chrysler
4-10

the late 1990s, foreign minivans and SUVs of varying sizes began appearing in the market.

Meanwhile, the distinction between domestic and foreign vehicles has continued to fade. Not

only was the manufacturing industry becoming more global, but parts suppliers were as well.

Cars built in the United States may contain parts built abroad. General Motors’ recent contract with Honda to supply engines for its small cars built in the United States is symbolic of

this long-term trend.

Despite the steady loss of U.S. market share during the past three decades, General Motors

and Ford still rank as the top two manufacturers in the world, by production [USDOC 2000].

However, Industry Week ranks them behind DaimlerChrysler in revenue [Industry Week 2000b].

The industry has become a global network of partnerships, alliances, and joint ventures over

the past 25 years. The biggest of these moves, the Daimler-Benz acquisition of Chrysler in

1998, kicked off a new round of global consolidation. This acquisition was quickly followed

by Ford’s purchase of the car manufacturing division of Swedish luxury carmaker Volvo.

Volvo then bought Renault’s U.S. Mack Truck manufacturing business, and, in turn, gave

Renault a 15 percent stock ownership stake in Volvo. The combined Volvo-Mack Truck line

leads the European market and is the second largest seller in the United States, with 25 percent of the large-truck market.

General Motors has alliances with three Japanese companies, owning 10 percent of Suzuki;

20 percent of Fuji Heavy Industries, maker of Subaru [Fiat 2000]; and 49 percent of Isuzu.

Additionally, General Motors, Isuzu, and Suzuki together make the Opel, the most popular car

in Europe [GM 1999]. General Motors also owns 20 percent of Fiat in Italy and all of Swedish

Saab. General Motors is moving into the fast-growing Asia Pacific region with new plants in

China, supplied by parts from Michigan in the United States, and Thailand.

Ford owns 33 percent of the Japanese company, Mazda [Ford 1999], and it has taken over

Sweden’s Volvo and Britain’s Jaguar and Land Rover operations. Ford operates 12 major

assembly plants in Europe and has moved into India [Industry Week 1999], with 78 percent

ownership of Ford India.

Keys to the Future

The globalization trend in the automobile industry likely will continue in the coming years.

With Asia-Pacific and Latin America projected as the fastest growing regions, automakers will

be seeking ways to enter those markets. However, the U.S. market remains the largest, and

automakers continually will seek new ways to sell cars in this country.

The global auto market continues to be determined by consumer preferences and government

regulation. The divergence between the two sometimes creates problems for auto manufacturers attempting to develop a global brand and to cut costs by producing the same vehicle

worldwide. The American consumer preference for larger vehicles with luxurious interiors is

shared only in Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Consumers in the rest of the world buy

smaller cars that are more fuel efficient and have more modest interiors. Attempts are underway to develop global vehicle standards.

The U.S. Department of Commerce projects that auto imports will rise in the United States

during the next several years with improved products offered at competitive prices [USDOC

2000]. American consumers have shown an increased willingness to pay more for import cars

than for domestic vehicles, paying 63 percent more in 1999, compared to 20 percent in 1992

[USDOC 2000]. Table 4-5 shows sales of the top 10 cars and trucks in the United States,

including imports.
4-11

The Council on Competitiveness has expressed concerns that higher demand for fuel-efficient

or advanced-fuel vehicles outside the United States could lead to greater investment in

research, and result in faster marketing opportunities there. Although U.S. manufacturers

have joined with the government to produce fuel-efficient vehicles, the relative low cost of

fuel—if it continues—is unlikely to lead to massive consumer demand. Except for China, fuel

costs are higher in other major nations because of higher taxes.

Also in the coming years, the auto industry may face the challenge of surplus production

capacity, particularly in Europe, while production growth is taking place in Asia and Latin

America.

International Passenger Travel by Air

Over the past 25 years, U.S. policy has favored a more open international aviation system, and

much of the world has followed. In 1975, flying between countries was governed by bilateral

agreements that were restrictive and designed to protect national flag carriers from competition. While the basic framework of bilateral agreements remains in

effect, the U.S. government has advocated “open skies” agreements

aimed at increasing competition, lowering fares and cargo rates,

and increasing service.

Changes in global aviation began in 1978 when U.S. airlines were

deregulated, while the international system remained tightly

regulated. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) set

fares and rates, subject to government approval, until 1979 when

the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) withdrew “blanket” antitrust

protection from IATA. International fare-setting continued to be

subject to case-by-case approval of the CAB and, later, the U.S.

Department of Transportation (USDOT). But, as competition

improved, the USDOT cut back its supervision of international

pricing, effectively deregulating first charters, then cargo transportation. Today, after decades of pressing for marketplace fare setting,

foreign governments rarely attempt to disapprove U.S. carrier

pricing initiatives and pricing regulation in U.S. international

markets is largely a thing of the past.

Top Selling Cars and Trucks in the United States: 1998

Source: Ward’s Communications, Ward’s Motor Vehicle Facts and Figures 1999

(Detroit, MI: 2000).

Table 4-5

Top 10 cars Cars sold Top 10 trucks Trucks sold

Toyota Camry

Honda Accord

Honda Civic

Ford Escort

Chevrolet Cavalier

Toyota Corolla

Saturn

Chevrolet Malibu

Pontiac Grand Am

Chevrolet Lumina

429,575

401,071

371,074

334,562

256,099

250,501

231,522

223,703

180,428

177,631

Ford F-Series

Chevrolet C/K Pickup

Ford Explorer

Dodge Ram Pickup

Ford Ranger

Dodge Caravan

Jeep Grand Cherokee

Chevrolet S10 Pickup

Ford Expedition

Chevrolet Blazer

836,758

538,254

431,488

410,130

328,136

293,819

229,135

228,093

225,703

219,710

“The world economy today

is fifteen times its size 40

years ago. And travel and

tourism have already

become the world’s largest

industry.”

Rodney E. Slater

Secretary, U.S. Department of

Transportation

International Transportation

Symposium

Washington, DC

Oct. 10, 2000
4-12

“This is an extrordinary

time to be in

transportation — and I

would say — in aviation.

It is a time that is at once

exhilarating, exciting,

sometimes exhausting, but

always challenging. We

live in an era of globalization, that in the words

of one economist, is

‘turbocharged’.”

Jane F. Garvey

Administrator,

Federal Aviation Administration

In 1975, only four U.S. carriers—Pan American (PanAm), Trans

World Airlines (TWA), Northwest, and Braniff—had authority to fly

overseas. Departure points for overseas flights were Kennedy

Airport in New York for transatlantic destinations; Los Angeles or

San Francisco for transpacific flights; and Miami for Latin American

flights.

After deregulation, several more U.S. carriers—American, United,

Delta, and, for a time, Eastern—obtained new international authority from CAB/USDOT and acquired some international routes from

PanAm, TWA, and Braniff. Domestic flights linked up to the

international flights at the four traditional gateways. American,

United, Braniff, and Delta also brought international flights to other

hubs, expanding the number of U.S. gateways.

Over the past quarter century, U.S. airlines have extended their

reach. For example, between 1983 and 1993, the number of international city-pair markets flown by U.S. airlines grew by more than

one-third [60 Federal Register 21841]. New technology made new

gateways possible with smaller planes, which could fly longer and

more frequently to more distant locations. These flights replaced the use of fewer, larger

planes, which only flew to a few major airports.

During the last 25 years, a number of airlines throughout the world, including British Airways, went from “state” to private control. A 1997 Foreign Policy article estimated that while

“the state was the majority owner of most airlines in the 1950s and 1960s, private investors

now control 75 percent of the airline industry.” It predicted that “the remaining holdovers

will likely be privatized within the next few years [Juan 1997-98].”

Changing Markets, Changing Aircraft

In the past 25 years, airlines have moved from using a few large airplanes for international flights

to using numerous smaller planes. More flights, combined with extended nonstop flying ranges,

have changed the system. Boeing, in its “Current Market Outlook,” notes the importance of the

change in aircraft: “ Twenty years ago, the performance, capacities, and economics of airplanes

then available dictated the business strategies of transatlantic carriers. They could either operate

single-aisle Boeing 707s and DC-8s with fewer than 200 seats or fly widebodied B747s and DC10s with more than 300 seats. With lower seat-mile costs and newer technology, the widebodies

predominated, forcing airlines to a business strategy of fewer, high-capacity flights linking only a

few transatlantic gateways.

Today, an ongoing shift to smaller, highly fuel-efficient and long-range airplanes is fundamentally

transforming North Atlantic air travel. Introduced in the 1980s, the B767 and A310 have freed

airlines to pursue flexible business strategies, offering consumers greater choice. As a result,

travelers now fly to and from more cities on both sides of the Atlantic. They save time and money

because their travel is more direct, and they have a greater choice of convenient departure times

because today’s traffic is divided among a greater number of smaller capacity jets.” [Boeing 2000]

The increase in aircraft range also has popularized nonstop flights between Europe and the Pacific

basin. Boeing predicts that the Pacific market will continue to grow as political restrictions are

eased and more use is made of smaller capacity A340 and B777 jetliners that can fly as far as, or

significantly farther than, the B747-400.

Source: The Boeing Company, Current Market Outlook, available at http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/

1eo00.html, as of July 10, 2000.

Box 4-2
4-13

The European Union (EU) achieved full-airline deregulation for intra-EU service in 1998.

Throughout the world, airlines are becoming less of a national political symbol and more of a

business, with increasing cross-border investments. However, most countries still retain

national ownership rules.

Cross-Border Ownership

Airlines are considered national assets, and therefore, many nations, including the United States,

have strict rules against foreign ownership. These rules fit the existing general structure of bilateral

treaties that require airlines to be identified by national origin.

Many airlines have moved from state ownership to full or partial privatization in recent decades, but

the next step of opening ownership to foreign interests generally has not been taken. For the U.S.

system, one key consideration is the need for U.S. airlines to commit planes to the Civil Reserve Air

Fleet (CRAF) during national emergencies; CRAF provides up to half of the military’s airlift capabilities

(see Chapter 7 for a detailed discussion on CRAF).

Some cross-border ownership has taken place. Examples include SAirGroup, the parent of

SwissAir, which acquired 85 percent of the Belgian Sabena Air [SAirGroup 2000], formerly a state

airline, and KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, which purchased 25 percent of U.S.-based Northwest Airlines

(later divested). But, cross-border ownership still remains rare in an industry that is rapidly becoming

more global. As globalization becomes more dominant in the 21st century, the issue of cross-border

ownership may be compelling.

Other issues that continue on an international scale are cabotage and right of establishment.

Cabotage is the carriage of domestic traffic by a foreign carrier. Historically, this has been

prohibited by national laws in order to reserve domestic traffic for homeland carriers, for both

economic and security reasons. In 1998, the European Union integrated its Member States’ domestic

markets, permitting a carrier of any Member State to carry traffic within and among all other

Member States, performing what would ordinarily be considered cabotage.

The right of establishment would allow airlines or others to create or purchase airlines within a foreign nation; this is an element of the EU’s internal liberalization. Although there has been little

movement on cabotage or right of establishment, both are likely to be discussed during the coming

years.

Code Sharing

Code sharing is a common industry practice wherein one airline offers services in its own name for a

particular city-pair, but some, or all, of the transportation is provided by another carrier. Globalization of the airline industry is making this practice increasingly common in international travel.

While code sharing allows carriers to provide more convenient service to travelers, the USDOT

requires disclosure to passengers and has recognized the need to ensure that foreign partners meet

the highest safety and security standards. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) does not,

however, directly certify and oversee the safety of foreign carriers. Under international law, such

direct safety oversight is the responsibility of foreign civil aviation authorities.

Therefore, one indication of the level of safety of the foreign code-share carriers is the FAA’s International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) Program. Under this program, the FAA determines whether

a country’s aviation safety oversight meets minimum international oversight standards.

A code share with a foreign carrier will be approved only if the foreign carrier is from a country that

meets such standards or is using aircraft and crew from such a country.

Another important safety measure is the program of audits conducted by U.S. air carriers of their

code-share operations. Under recent USDOT guidelines, a U.S. air carrier will perform initial and

periodic safety audits of each foreign carrier having a U.S. code-share service. The FAA reviews

these results and advises USDOT, which determines whether the code-share service is in the public

interest. Such a public interest determination is a required part of the code-share approval process.

Box 4-3

Box 4-4
4-14

To overcome the barriers of national ownership rules, airlines have turned to global alliances

(table 4-6) to help compete in the emerging global market. Using joint marketing and service

arrangements—and, sometimes, code-sharing (box 4-4)—these alliances provide the means

with which airlines can develop worldwide networks for their passengers and offer global

service. In 1998, more than half of the world’s airline capacity, based on available seats per

kilometer, was involved in alliances [Boeing 2000].

In recent years, bilateral agreements have accommodated globalization through alliances,

including code-sharing, and are beginning to be overtaken by open skies agreements. So far,

the United States has signed 51 “open skies” agreements, which eliminate all restrictions on

airline service between the signing countries (figure 4-6 and box 4-5).

In addition, the first ever multilateral

open skies agreement was initialed

in November 2000 by the United

States and four other Asia-Pacific

Economic Cooperation (APEC)

economies (Chile, Brunei, New

Zealand, and Singapore). With this

agreement, we are beginning to

move beyond the current system of

bilateral aviation agreements and

into the international aviation

environment of the 21st century

while still maintaing the highest

levels of safety as well as ensuring

the needs of the workforce.

Major International Airline Alliances

Source: Commercial Air Carrier websites, as of May 1, 2000.

Table 4-6

Members

Air Canada

Air New Zealand

All Nippon Airways

Ansett Australia

Austrian Airlines

British Midland

Lauda Air (Austria)

Lufthansa (Germany)

Scandinavian Airline System

Singapore Airlines

Thai Airways (Thailand)

Tyrolean Airways (Austria)

United Airlines (U.S.)

Varig (Brazil)

Aer Lingus and Lan Chile

 (will join in 2000)

American Airlines (U.S.)

British Airways

Canadian Airlines

Cathay Pacific (Hong Kong)

Finnair (Finland)

Qantas (Australia)

Iberia (Spain)

Air Europe (UK)

Air Portugal

AOM & Air Littoral (France)

Crossair (Switzerland)

LOT (Poland)

PGA (Portugal)

Sabena (Belgium)

Swiss Air

Turkish Airlines

Volare Airlines (Italy)

Continental Airlines (U.S.)

KLM Royal Dutch Airlines

Northwest Airlines (U.S.)

AeroMexico

Air France

Delta Airlines (U.S.)

 Alliance

Star Alliance

One World

Qualiflyer Group

Wings Alliance

Global Alliance

Started

May 1997

February 1999

March 1998

1999

October 1999

“Alliances will become a master

brand where customers will begin

to relate to the system rather than

its parts . . . I see a future of

seamless travel from ordering and

paying for tickets online to

electronic check-in to

destinations reached through the

smooth coordination of different

components of the alliance brand.

This is not fantasy. It’s already

happening.”

Jim Goodwin

President, United Airlines

Aviation Club of Great Britain

Nov. 11, 1998
4-15

Figure 4-6

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of International Aviation, personal communication, Apr. 20, 2000.

Open Skies Agreements with the United States: 2000

Guatemala,

El Salvador,

Honduras:

April 1997

Dominican Republic:

Dec. 1999

Netherlands

Antilles:

Dec. 1997

Aruba:

July 1997

Nicaragua: May 1997

Costa Rica: April 1997

Panama: March 1997

Peru: May 1998

Argentina: Aug. 1999

 (multilateral)

Chile: Oct. 1999

Finland,

Norway,

Sweden, 

Denmark:

May 1995

Iceland: May 1995

Portugal: Dec. 1999

Italy: 

Nov. 1998 Turkey: March 2000

Netherlands:

Sept. 1992 Germany: Feb. 1996

Romania:

Dec. 1997

Czech Republic:

Dec. 1995

Slovak Republic:

Jan. 2000 Belgium,

Luxembourg,

Austria,

Switzerland:

May 1995

Jordan:

Nov. 1996 Qatar: Oct. 1999

Bahrain: May 1999

United Arab Emirates:

April 1999

Burkina Faso: 

Feb. 2000

Ghana: March 2000

Namibia: Feb. 2000

Tanzania:

Nov. 1999

South Korea:

April 1998

Taiwan: March 1997

New Zealand: May 1997

(multilateral)

Uzbekistan: Feb. 1998

Pakistan:

April 1999

Malaysia:

June 1997

Brunei: Feb. 1997 

 (multilateral) 

The Gambia:

May 2000

Nigeria: August 2000

Morocco: Oct. 2000

Rwanda:

Oct. 2000

Malta:

Oct. 2000

Benin: Nov. 2000

Senegal: 

Dec. 2000

Singapore: Jan. 1997 

(multilateral)

Bilateral Open Skies Treaties

Multilateral Open Skies Treaties
4-16

“Open Skies” Bilateral and Multilateral Agreements

Air services between the United States and foreign destinations in the world are governed primarily

by government-to-government bilateral aviation agreements. Most of these agreements impose

significant restrictions on airline operations by limiting the destinations served, the airlines and

services available, and prices charged. The Clinton Administration has developed and implemented a comprehensive program for eliminating these restrictions. Open-Skies agreements are

central to this program because they replace government regulation with a system in which the

market determines airline destinations, services, and prices.

Open-skies agreements permit unrestricted international air service between participating countries,

allowing each country’s airlines to fly between any city in its home country and any city in participating countries. This type of agreement maximizes potential competition and facilitates new

services through cooperative arrangements among the participating countries’ airlines. To date,

there have been 52 Open-Skies agreements; the first one was signed with the Netherlands in

September 1992.

In November 2000, the United States and four Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)

economies (Chile, Brunei, New Zealand, and Singapore) initialed the first ever multilateral open

skies agreement. With this agreement we are beginning to move beyond the current system of

bilateral aviation agreements and into the international aviation environment of the 21st century.

This historic agreement, is a direct result of the concepts we explored and the vision we established

at the Beyond Open Skies Conference held in Chicago in 1999.

In 1975, 16.3 million passengers boarded international flights in the United States [ATA

1999b]. By 1998, that number had tripled to more than 53 million passengers (figure 4-7).

Figures 4-8 and 4-9 show the extent of international air travel to and from the United States in

1998.

In 1975, the load factor—a measure of revenue-passenger “load” divided by passenger

capacity for an aircraft—for international flights was 50 percent, and it has steadily increased

during the past 25 years (figure 4-10). In recent years it has exceeded 70 percent [ATA 1999a].

This growth has substantially improved profitability and, therefore, reduced costs to

consumers. U.S. flight destinations also have changed. Although Atlantic routes carry the

most passengers, the Latin American and Pacific markets are expected to grow at a much

faster annual growth rate between 2000 and 2011 [USDOT FAA].

Source: Air Transport Association, available at http://www.air-transport.org, as of

Apr. 25, 2000.

International Passengers Enplaned in the United States: 1975-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 4-7 Passenger enplanements (in millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Box 4-5

“Just as the Hubble Space

Telescope has opened up the

universe to millions, the

aviation system of the

future will open the corners

of the world to more and

more people, ensuring that

the new millennium is the

Aviation Millennium.”

Daniel S. Goldin

Administrator, National Aeronautics

and Space Administration, Aviation in

the 21st Century—Beyond Open Skies

Ministerial Conference, 1999.
4-17

Figure 4-8

Foreign Residents Visiting the United States: 1998

Notes: Overseas excludes Canada and Mexico (for those two countries, visitation estimates include all modes; for all other countries, estimates

are available only for air travel to that country). The visitation estimates are made based on the airlines that voluntarily participate in this

program. If a major carrier does not participate and we do not have access to other carriers who generate passenger travel to that destination,

our estimates will be affected.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Tourism Industries (Washington, DC: 1999).

Figure 4-9

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Tourism Industries (Washington, DC: 1999).

U.S. Residents Traveling to Overseas Countries: 1998

 Number of visitors

 1 – 549

 550 – 2,999

 3,000 – 13,349

 13,350 – 99,999

 100,000 – 499,999

 500,000 – 999,999

 1,000,000 – 18,016,748

 No data

Numbers Traveling

23,000 – 299,999

300,000 – 499,000

500,000 – 999,999

1,000,000 – 9,999,999

Above 10,000,000

No data
4-18

Keys to the Future

The Boeing Company projects an annual growth of 4.7 percent in international air travel over

the next 20 years [Boeing 2000]. According to Boeing, the greatest growth potential is in Asia,

which has become an important tourist destination and also is home to emerging strong

economies, such as those of India, China, and South Korea. To accommodate increasing

passenger traffic, countries across the world, especially Asia, are enhancing capacity at

existing airports and building new ones. For example, the Chek Lap Kok airport, built in

Hong Kong at a cost of nearly $20 billion, went into operation in 1999.

A key challenge facing international aviation today and in

the coming years is to create a system that fits the global

economy. To address this challenge, public officials are

looking beyond bilateral treaties that have governed international aviation relations for the past 55 years, to establish

multilateral groupings of “open skies” nations. In 1999, the

USDOT hosted an “Aviation in the 21st Century—Beyond

Open Skies Ministerial” Conference in Chicago, attended by

representatives of 93 nations, to discuss a new international

aviation policy architecture. The conference created new

opportunities for growth in international aviation to pursue

air service liberalization beyond the current bilateral system

to foster the creation of expanded international multilateral

partnerships. It also helped us create a bold new vision for

international aviation—one that capitalizes on communications, information, and technological revolution of the 21st

century. This will help us achieve the safest, most secure,

environmentally friendly, and efficient aviation system

possible by 2025.

International Aviation Load Factor: 1975-98

Figure 4-10

Source: Air Transport Association, available at http://www.air-transport.org, as of Apr. 25, 2000. Percent

0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Box 4-6

Superjumbo Aircraft

The projected growth of the

volume of passenger traffic and

increasing congestion at European

and Asian airports has encouraged the development of a new

generation of higher capacity

superjumbo airliners. Boeing has

announced it is developing the

747X (capable of seating more

than 500 passengers), while

Airbus is developing the A3XX

(capable of seating 481 to

656 passengers).

Source: K. Done, Survey— Aerospace 2000:

One Challenge That Could Not Be Refused:

AIRBUS A3XX, The Financial Times,

July 24, 2000.
4-19

The record growth of world travel has also created heightened sensitivity to the safety and

security of the global aviation system. To maximize safety, international standards need to be

applied around the globe, and trouble spots need to be identified and addressed.

The operating structure of the scheduled passenger airline industry will change through

further refinement of existing business models and the development of totally new business

models. For example, low-fare carriers have fundamentally changed the competitive dynamic

in U.S. and European domestic aviation markets, and it is entirely possible that low-fare

airlines could expand to link continents. Airlines have learned that to maximize profits and

shareholder value they must select the traffic segment that fits their cost structure and corporate strengths, rather than simply chasing all passengers in an effort to improve market share.

In the next 25 years, the evolution of the industry structure will be guided by airlines optimizing the relationship between targeted passenger segments and their cost and business structures.

Aviation in the year 2025 will be marked by characteristics that differ from today’s environment. These changes will be driven by consumer demand and the industry’s need to meet

those demands while creating shareholder value.

The distinction between domestic and international aviation will be nearly nonexistent in

the key forms it exists in today: ownership and control, licensing, and competition policy.

The thousands of bilateral air transport agreements between national governments will

give way to regional/plurilateral pacts that will probably evolve toward a multinational

regime. By 2025, the airline industry will have followed other industries in becoming truly

global, even on the production side. In short, we will see the complete deregulation of the

industry on a global basis and normalization of the airline industry as an economic

sector.

In an effort to enhance productivity and efficiency, airlines will substantially rationalize

hub-and-spoke systems. This will be done not only through consolidation, but also

through airline planning and operating changes and innovations, such as dynamic

scheduling, which provides for capacity management changes close to flight time. Longterm efficiency gains will be possible by operating fewer, larger aircraft into permanently

constrained hubs.

Airlines will successfully use new aircraft and information technologies to transition

from planning their business based on traffic pools to focusing on passenger profiles,

seeking to provide a range of products and services that more effectively match a

passenger’s needs, not just his/her willingness to pay. Airlines may evolve into

“lifestyle” management companies in an effort to further leverage their individual brands

and effectively meet the needs of more granular market segments.

As airlines become comfortable with not competing for every passenger segment, the

rationalization of the hub-and-spoke networks on a global scale will create new

opportunities for other innovative services that will be largely point-to-point, but will

have the ability to focus on the needs of a particular market segment.

The role of the government will be to facilitate this process, providing leadership to steer

toward promising regional/plurilateral arrangements and away from forums that might

regress from the open-skies standards. Where stakeholder interests are mutually exclusive, the

Department should secure the public interest on the basis of a long-term vision, ameliorating

the long-term negative effects of short-term corporate policies—both of which are inherent

when an industry is in fundamental transition.
4-20

Air Cargo and Express Services

One of the most significant transportation developments of the past quarter century has been

the rapid growth of air cargo, and, as a result of that growth, development of global integrated

express carriers. Lower shipping costs and more frequent service have made air cargo a major

factor in the way business is conducted. Consequently, air freight’s share of U.S. international

merchandise trade grew from 16 percent by value in 1980 [USDOT BTS 1999] to 28 percent in

1997, valued at $433 billion (figure 4-12). Although this represents less than 1 percent of

tonnage, domestic ton-miles of air freight have tripled since deregulation in 1977, and international ton-miles have grown nearly fivefold [ATA 1999b].

Air cargo has grown in importance as more U.S. businesses replace traditional inventory

stockpiling practices with lean inventories and just-in-time deliveries. Electronics and

computers are the largest single air-freight category, comprising nearly 20 percent of the

market (table 4-7). While high-value, time-sensitive goods are moved by air, especially critical

goods may be sent by integrated express carrier, such as Federal Express, United Parcel

Service (UPS), DHL, Airborne Express, CF/Emery, Burlington, and, increasingly, by the U.S.

International Aviation Safety and Security

Exposure to risk varies greatly around the world. Aviation accident rates are among the lowest in

the United States and Canada (figure 4-11). With aircraft loss rates in Latin America, Africa, and

Asia up to 19 times as high as the North American rates, it will be a challenge to reduce the

accident rate throughout the world.

The FAA’s assessments of safety oversight found weaknesses in the safety/regulatory environment

in various regions of the world. The IASA program, which released its first results in 1994, focuses

on whether a country’s safety oversight for aircraft operations and maintenance meets International

Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards. As a direct result of this program, many countries

have improved safety oversight efforts. These improvements have made travel safer, not only on

foreign carriers with operations to the United States, but to other destinations worldwide.

The White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security, established in July 1996 and

chaired by Vice President Al Gore, strengthened security requirements and certifications and

recommended procedures to improve aviation security.

Safe Skies for Africa, and the Partnership for Safer Skies with Latin America, and the Western

Hemisphere aviation initiative are three FAA-initiated regional safety efforts aimed at spreading a

model set of aviation laws, regulations, and standards that nations around the world can use to

meet international safety standards. The FAA’s technical assistance programs may be insufficient,

however, to meet growing demand. Greater efforts may be needed to harmonize certification

standards, air traffic control procedures, and navigational capabilities.

Beginning in 2000, ICAO is taking steps, through its Universal Safety Oversight and Audit

Program, to ensure that countries provide adequate safety oversight in the areas of personnel

licensing and aircraft operation and airworthiness. To help ensure global aviation safety, the FAA

has:

introduced Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreements in 1995 to allow reciprocal acceptance of

various approvals, reducing the industry’s burden of duplicate certifications;

moved to harmonize civil aviation regulations, practices, and procedures with the Joint

Aviation Authorities of Europe, and with certification authorities in the Former Soviet

Union, China, and other countries that manufacture aircraft; and

provided technical assistance to authorities around the world.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of the Inspector General, Audit report: Aviation Safety Under

International Code Share Agreements, number AV-1999-138, available at www.oig.dot.gov/audits/av1999138.pdf,

as of July 21, 2000.

Box 4-7
4-21

Figure 4-11

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration data, personal communication (Washington, DC: 2000).

Hull Loss Accident Rates by World Region: 1988-97 (10 year averages)

(Accidents per million departures for western-built transports)

United States 

and Canada 

 0.5

Europe - 0.8

JAA* - 0.6

Non JAA - 1.2

C.I.S.**

Latin America

and Caribbean 

 4.7

Middle East 

 1.9

Africa 

 9.5

China

 2.7

Asia 

 2.3

Oceania 

 0.5

(excluding China)

** Insufficient fleet experience to calculate reliable rate.

* Joint Aviation Authority.

Figure 4-12

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Freight

USA, draft, 2000.

Tonnage Value

Modal Share of U.S. International

Merchandise Trade: 1997

Air

0.3%

Truck

4.5%

Rail

3.2%

Pipeline

3.8%

Air

28%

Truck

21%

Rail

5%

Pipeline

1%

Other

4%

Water

41%

Water

62.6%

Other

25.6%
4-22

Postal Service (USPS). Modern information technology allows customers to receive door-todoor tracking information from integrated express carriers.

In 1975, the express services industry was just getting started, and its potential was not

widely foreseen. Domestic air cargo, already growing rapidly in 1975, amounted to about

2.8 billion revenue ton-miles that year—five times greater than in 1960 [USDOT 1977]. By

1999, revenue ton-miles had grown to 11.5 billion, at an annual growth rate of 6.1 percent. At

the same time, international revenue ton-miles by U.S. carriers increased from 2.2 billion to

13.6 billion (figure 4-13). This phenomenal success of both air cargo and express carriers was

spurred by the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, discussed in chapter 2, which created

conditions that allowed both competition among carriers and basic changes to the airindustry structure.

FedEx was founded in 1973. It used a then novel hub-and-spoke method to move air cargo at

night to a central hub and distribute it before the end of the next business day through

Figure 4-13

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Working Paper on

Aerospace Capacity and Demand, draft (Washington, DC: 2000).

International Freight Revenue Ton-Miles by U.S. Carriers: 1975-99

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Billions

Top 10 Shipments by Air, Ranked by Value: 1997

Table 4-1

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau; and U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of

Transportation Statistics, 1997 Commodity Flow Survey, EC97TCF-US (Washington, DC: 1999).

Table 4-7

Value

($ millions)

Tons

(thousands)

Ton-miles

SCTG Commodity (millions)

35

37

38

40

34

21

29

36

30

33

Electronic and Other Electrical Equipment and

Components and Office Equipment

Transportation Equipment, NEC

Precision Instruments and Apparatus

Miscellaneous Manufactured Products

Machinery

Pharmaceutical Products

Printed Products

Motorized and Other Vehicles (Including Parts)

Textiles, Leather, and Articles of Textiles or Leather

Articles of Base Metal

89,325

55,500

17,475

16,373

12,055

10,524

7,090

5,387

3,699

1,976

Total 229,062 4,475 6,233

634

78

135

200

305

71

337

370

115

355

863

100

151

325

474

98

418

376

185

507

Key: NEC = Not Elsewhere Classified; SCTG = Standard Classification of Transported Goods.
4-23

integrated air and truck service. At that time, FedEx was delivering to 25 U.S. cities. UPS

(founded in 1907) gained permission in 1975 for its trucks to deliver in all 48 contiguous

states. At that time, it was still a ground-based North American company; its first venture into

Europe did not come until the following year. DHL pioneered door-to-door foreign express

deliveries in the early 1970s, starting service to the Philippines, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore,

Australia, and Europe.

Since 1975, the express business has become a global enterprise. UPS began its European

operations in 1976, expanding to Asia in 1988 and Latin America in 1989; FedEx began its

service to Asia and Europe in 1984; and DHL expanded to Latin America, Africa, the Middle

East, and China by 1986. While these three companies are not the only ones providing

domestic or international express service, they are the largest in the world.

With hubs across the globe, integrated carriers have perfected the use of the hub-and-spoke

system for cargo transport (figure 4-14). Their delivery systems and schedules bypass airport

congestion, which can be the source of many delays. UPS, the largest carrier, moves cargo

through primary international hubs in Cologne, Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore, and

Taiwan. FedEx has primary international hubs in Paris and the Philippines; DHL operates

primary hubs in Brussels and Hong Kong.

According to a report by BT Alex. Brown, even with such extensive operations by cargo

carriers, passenger planes still carry about half of all air cargo [Logistics Online 1999]. As a

result, several passenger airlines are now separating their cargo operations from their passenger business to more efficiently accommodate increasing cargo traffic.

Figure 4-14

Sources: FedEx, personal communication, 2000; DHL, available at http://www.dhl-usa.com; UPS, company fact sheet, 2000.

Express Carrier Hubs: 2000

Oakland

Los Angeles

Ontario

Rio de Janeiro

St. Maartens

Caracas

Panama City

Guatemala City

Guadalajara

Mexico City

Montreal

New York

Newark

Philadelphia

Miami

Columbia

Rockford

Memphis

Indianapolis

Louisville Ft. Worth/Dallas

Hartford

Cincinnati

Tokyo

Taipei

Subic Bay

Manila

Hong 

Kong

Singapore

Sydney

Bahrain

London

Paris

Copenhagen Brussels

Frankfurt

Cologne/Bonn

Nuremburg

East Midlands

Bergamo

Hamilton

San Francisco

Chicago

Seattle

Amsterdam

Madrid

Johannesburg Harare

Dubai

Lagos

Anchorage

Monterrey

DHL

FedEx

UPS

Express carriers
4-24

Express services continue to grow at a rapid pace; annual growth averaged nearly 20 percent

from 1992 to 1997, and total volume doubled. Although it comprises only about 5 percent of

the international air cargo market, express is the fastest growing segment. In 1999, FedEx

reported delivering an average of nearly 2 million overnight packages and 282,000 international priority packages each day. UPS ranks as the ninth largest airline in North America

based on number of jets [UPS 2000], while Industry Week places FedEx as the fifth largest

airline in the world, based on operating revenue [Industry Week 2000a]. Today, these express

carriers (UPS, FedEx, and DHL) deliver to more than 200 countries (figure 4-15).

Keys to the Future

Boeing projects an average annual growth of 6 percent in international air cargo during the

next decade and 6.4 percent average annual growth for the next 20 years [Boeing 1998-99].

The most rapid growth is expected in Asian markets. MergeGlobal predicts at least 8.9 percent growth per year in the Intra-Asian market through 2004 [Clancy & Hoppin 2000]. But to

continue to move cargo rapidly, growth in international air cargo may require airport construction and expansion. To avoid delays, companies will probably continue to seek cargo

facilities that are separate from congested passenger airports.

To expand U.S. presence in the Asian market, USDOT in November 2000, proposed expansion

in United States-China air service that will eventually lead to full liberalization. In a showcause order, USDOT tentatively selected UPS as the fourth U.S. carrier authorized to serve

China and extended the roundtrip flights of the other three airlines (United Airlines, Northwest Airlines, and Federal Express). These efforts will eventually result in “open skies”

agreement with China after 2004.

The continued expansion of air cargo also will require additional aircraft. This projected

growth in air cargo, coupled with a trend to seek airports that are clear of passenger aircraft

Sources: FedEx, personal communication, May 15, 2000; DHL, personal communication, May 2000.

Shipping Times from the United States: 2000

Figure 4-15

1

2

3

Number of days 

 for delivery

4

5

6

No data
4-25

traffic, will likely result in the spread of noise pollution to areas that had previously enjoyed

minimal disruptions. Although today’s aircraft are about 80 percent quieter than their 1950s

counterparts (see chapter 5), aircraft noise pollution can still interrupt conversations and

disrupt sleep.

Boeing predicts that used and converted passenger aircraft will be the primary source of

freighters. Boeing also projects:

continued use of lower hold cargo capacity on passenger airplanes; and

a need for 190 additional large-capacity freighters, 155 medium-capacity

widebody freighters, and 140 small freighters (Airbus has forecast the need for 300 

additional freighters) [Sobie 2000].

Others in the freight field are considering new designs to save unloading time. Some are also

discussing the possibility of an amphibious freighter as another solution to airport capacity

concerns. Overall, it is clear that overcoming capacity constraints will drive creative solutions

and investment decisions.

Maritime Shipping

The ocean shipping industry has been dramatically transformed in the past 25 years. Ships

have generally become faster and larger, and intermodal container shipping has replaced

breakbulk cargo on many routes. And, although the United States continues to conduct most

of its foreign trade by ship, our rank among the world’s maritime fleets has dropped.

Figures 4-16 and 4-17 show the size of the world shipping fleet and U.S. share of the world

fleet from 1975 to 1997. Even though productivity in the U.S. shipbuilding industry has

improved, new shipbuilding activity has declined.

Waterborne trade has grown in the last quarter century with the expansion of the world’s

economy, and it is expected to double over the next 20 years . The primary commodities

include semimanufactured products; dry cargoes, such as grains, coal, steel, and iron ore; and

liquid-bulk products, such as petroleum and petroleum products.

World Shipping Fleet: 1975-97

Figure 4-16

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, Merchant Fleets of the World

(Washington, DC: Annual issues) and unpublished revisions.

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

1975 1980 1985 1993 1994 1990 1991 1992 1995 1996 1997

Number of ships
4-26

In 1975, oceangoing shipping was growing, due in part to growth in the crude oil trade. As a

result, the shipping capacity of the world merchant fleet (oceangoing steam and motor ships

of 1,000 gross tons and over) more than quadrupled to 557 million deadweight tons (dwt) in

1975 [USDOC MARAD 1976] from 130 million dwt in 1955 [USDOC MARAD 1956]. Also in

1975, new construction additions to the world merchant fleet increased to 791 vessels

[USDOC MARAD 1976], compared to 470 vessels in 1955 [USDOC MARAD 1956].

In 1975, Japan and West Germany led the world in shipbuilding (figure 4-18). The number of

vessels on order or under construction reached an all-time high at the close of 1975, although

the rate of growth for new shipbuilding orders had begun to decline. By the 1970s, the crude

oil boom ended, and the capacity created during the previous decade stifled demand for

new tonnage.

In 1975, oceangoing ships carried 625 million metric tons of foreign trade. By 1999, this trade

had almost doubled to 1.13 billion metric tons. Figure 4-19 shows the U.S. oceanborne foreign

trade by different types of cargo ships. However, the U.S.-flag fleet carried only 5.1 percent by

volume and 17.5 percent by value [USDOC MARAD 1978]. Figure 4-20 shows the country

shares of world maritime trade by cargo value in 1998.

The world’s general cargo trades were being revolutionized, largely by U.S. shipbuilding

innovations in advanced containerships and roll-on/roll-off vessels. At the end of 1975, the

United States held 25 percent of the world’s fleet of general cargo ships and 30 percent of the

tonnage [USDOC MARAD 1976]. But there was growing worldwide competition between the

expanding fleet of containerships and traditional general cargo vessels.

A quarter century ago, our foremost trading partner in oceanborne foreign trade, in both

tonnage and value, was Japan (figure 4-21). U.S. purchases of consumer goods from Japan

drove the Asia-Pacific trade in the late 1970s, and were largely responsible for the growth in

liner trade vessels—those operating on fixed itineraries or regular schedules and with

established rates. The continuing growth in the liner industry greatly contributed to the

overall globalization of the maritime industry.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, Merchant Fleets of the World

(Washington, DC: Annual issues) and unpublished revisions.

U.S. Share of World Shipping Fleet: 1975-97

Figure 4-17 Percent

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

1975 1980 1985 1993 1994 1990 1991 1992 1995 1996 1997
4-27

Note: The Maritime Administration moved from the Department of Commerce to the Department of Transportation in 1982.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Maritime Administration, data on new ship construction as of Dec. 31, 1975.

World Shipping Deliveries: 1975

Figure 4-18 Number of vessels

Spain

United Kingdom

Norway

Poland

Netherlands

USSR

Sweden

Denmark

France

Italy

Germany, East

United States

Japan

All Others

Germany, West

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, Office of Statistical and Economic Analysis, data

available at http//www.marad.dot.gov/statistics, as of

Aug. 8, 2000.

Oceanborne Foreign Trade: 1975 and 1999

Figure 4-19

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Liner

Billion metric tons

Non-Liner Tanker

1975

1999
4-28

Even though Japan was our foremost trading partner a quarter century ago, in both tonnage

and value, transatlantic trade was the primary traffic route. Today, major U.S. trade routes

have shifted. Transpacific trade is now the primary traffic route for U.S. oceanborne commerce. Our top five trading partners account for approximately 42 percent of the tonnage and

value [USDOT MARAD 1998]. Currently, Venezuela is our leading trading partner in terms of

tonnage (primarily oil), but Japan is still our leading trading partner in terms of value. Mexico

and Saudi Arabia joined the ranks of our top trading partners in terms of tonnage.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Maritime Administration, United States Oceanborne Foreign Trade Routes

(Washington, DC: March 1978).

Top 10 U.S. Oceanborne Foreign Trade Partners: 1978

(Exports to U.S./Imports from U.S.)

Figure 4-21

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

60,000

70,000

80,000

Japan Venezuela Canada Netherlands

Antilles

Netherlands

Holland

Bahamas Nigeria Trinidad/

Tobago

Indonesia Brazil

Exports

Imports

Thousands of long tons

Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Review of Maritime Transport 1999 (New York,

New York: 1999).

Country Shares of World Maritime Trade by Cargo Value: 1998

Figure 4-20 Percent

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

United Kingdom

Italy

Netherlands

Canada

Hong Kong, China

China

Belgium-Luxembourg

Other

France

United States

Germany

Japan
4-29

The world merchant fleet in 1975 consisted of 22,872 ships of 556,572 thousand deadweight

tons. The United States ranked eighth in terms of deadweight tonnage. Liberia was ranked

number one in vessel registries (by number of ships) and was considered a country flag of

convenience. [USDOC MARAD 1975].

Flags of Convenience

Some ship owners register their shipping companies in foreign countries to avoid taxes, higher

labor costs, and/or stringent safety regulations than might be imposed by the ship owner’s home

country. These ships are operated under the flag of a foreign nation— known as a flag of

convenience. More than 5,400 ships— one-fourth of the world’s merchant ships and nearly onethird of the total tonnage— were registered under a flag of convenience in 1975. Most of these

were bulk cargo carriers and tankers.

In 1975, Liberia was the most-used flag of convenience, followed by Panama and Singapore. In

1999, Panama was the top flag of convenience with more than twice as many registries as any

other nation; following were Liberia, Greece, and the Bahamas.

Studies have found that ships bearing a flag of convenience are more likely to suffer from poor

material condition, lack of maintenance, inadequately trained crews, and more frequent casualties.

This is due to both poor flag state enforcement and to operating companies lowering costs by

evading their responsibility to run safe ships. More economically advanced nations in Europe,

North America, and on the Pacific Rim have launched Port State Control (PSC) initiatives, coordinated through multinational Memorandums of Understanding, with the objective of forcing sub–

standard ships out of trade. While these PSC efforts seem to be resulting in fewer casualties in PSC

country waters, the problem of substandard ships has not gone away. According to the British

Broadcasting Corporation, 46 percent of all ships lost in 1997 sailed under flags of convenience.

The worst record for losses as a percentage of the fleet belonged to ships registered under the

Cambodian flag.

In 1999, the United Kingdom revised its tax laws affecting shipping to attract British-owned ships

and others to transfer their registrations. Maritime unions in Australia and Japan have mounted

protest campaigns against flags of convenience. The United States has pushed aggressively to raise

international standards overall through the International Maritime Organization and has developed

its own PSC system, which is a model for many countries.

The number of containerships is expected to grow at a significantly higher rate (8 to 10

percent) than other vessels types (1 to 4 percent) in the near term [USDOT 1999]. Container

ships are also becoming larger. Approximately 40 percent of the new capacity on order is for

vessels with a capacity of 4,500 or more TEUs. These vessels have design drafts approaching

50 feet, which will require channel deepening at the ports where they call. In order to reduce

the time vessels spend in port, liner operators are developing routes based on a hub-andspoke system.

The Panama Canal is now less critical to global maritime trade because it cannot accommodate the newest generation of container vessels. Another factor that has reduced the importance of the Panama Canal is that transcontinental rail serves as a cost-effective land bridge.

This could change if the Panama Canal were to be expanded.

By the end of 1997, Japan, South Korea, and China led the world in shipbuilding, the latter

rising from its 1980 ranking of 17th. Today, the United States ranks 12th, with about 1.3 percent of the world’s gross tonnage on order [USDOC 2000]. Reduced demand for new ship

construction has led to a steady decline in world new shipbuilding prices since the early

1990s [Journal of Commerce 2000].

As the size and prominence of the U.S. merchant fleet decreased, the U.S. transitioned from

being a “flag state” becoming a “port state,” as well. A “port state” is a nation whose interactions with merchant shipping come about primarily through port calls and coastal accidents

Box 4-8
4-30

involving ships whose safety is overseen by other governments. Today, fully 95 percent of U.S.

foreign trade is carried in ships flying the flags of other nations. The United States is no longer

able to carry out the same kind of risk reduction measures as was possible when the majority of

ships in our ports flew the American flag. Further, not all nations are as conscientious in their

flag state duties as the United States had been. Accordingly, the USCG has pursued a twotiered approach to protecting public and environmental safety from the threats posed by

inadequately supervised foreign shipping. The first tier is has been to promote increasingly

rigorous international standards at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The IMO is

a specialized branch of the United Nations, responsible for a wide range of safety and environmental protection standards issued under several international conventions. In recent years,

IMO standards have been made far more stringent, for both the protection of life and the marine

environment. These improvements have been largely at the instigation of the United States, and

the USCG is recognized at IMO and elsewhere as the world leader in maritime safety and

environmental protection issues. Rigorous standards are meaningless, however, if they are not

adequately enforced. Therefore, the United States, acting in concert with other nations, has

embarked on an aggressive Port State Control program to ensure foreign flag vessels calling in

our ports meet applicable IMO standards and any additional measures required for entry into

U.S. ports. The United States, again in cooperation with other nations, is working to improve

flag state enforcement capabilities through technical assistance and international training

programs and by developing the Model Maritime Code to guide developing nations’ efforts in

building effective enforcement capabilities.

Keys to the Future

The U.S. maritime industry is challenged to remain competitive in the face of industry consolidation during an era of deregulation (discussed in Chapter 2). At the same time, the commercial

fleet provides critical capacity for military sealift during national emergencies, which may have

important implications for national security (see Chapter 7).

 The U.S. trade deficit causes additional problems for shipping companies. Imbalance of cargo

flows—more imports than exports and differences in the type of cargo and the kinds of ships

needed in each direction—causes some routes to be largely one-directional, and leads to costly

repositioning of empty containers.

The U.S. shipbuilding industry faces an even more serious challenge as commercial orders have

declined to record lows (figure 4-22). A continuing lack of U.S.-built ships may threaten both

the viability of the commercial U.S. fleet and our nation’s security.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, Shipyard Activity Reports data

(Washington, DC: Various years).

U.S. Commercial Shipbuilding Orderbook History–Nonmilitary

Ships of 1,000 Gross Tons or More: 1975-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 4-22 Number of ships

Gross tons (millions)

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

5

4

3

2

1

0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Number of ships

Gross tonnage
4-31

“I believe we have made a

decision now that will

permit us to create an

economic order in the world

that will promote more

growth, more equality,

better preservation of the

environment, and a greater

possibility of world peace.

We are on the verge of a

global economic expansion

that is sparked by the fact

that the United States at

this critical moment decided

that we would

compete, not retreat.”

President William J. Clinton

remarks on the signing of

NAFTA agreements, December 8,

1993

By 2025, U.S. ports must be prepared to accommodate larger, next-generation oceangoing

vessels and to provide efficient intermodal connections to rail and truck. Secretary Slater’s

Marine Transportation System initiative is intended to address these issues in a comprehensive, multidisciplinary way with active involvement of all agencies and stakeholders. The

U.S. Coast Guard interagency collaborative deepwater capability replacement project will also

help in upgrading the infrastructure over the next decade.

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

On December 8, 1993, the United States, Canada, and Mexico joined together in an historic

agreement to form a North American Free Trade Agreement—NAFTA. Trade among the three

North American nations was already on the rise in the early 1990s, but growth accelerated

when the treaty went into effect on January 1, 1994. Between 1995 and 1999, U.S.- Mexico

surface trade increased by 75 percent (by value), while U.S. - Canada surface trade grew by 20

percent. Figure 4-23 shows the increase in surface trade with Canada and Mexico between

1995 and 1999. Mexico has now become our third largest

trading partner (by value), up from its fifth position in 1975

[USDOC Annual]. Figures 4-23 through 4-27 show the trade

flow between the United States, Mexico, and Canada in 1998.

In the six years since the three governments decided to loosen

trade restrictions, foreign investment into Mexico has increased

from companies hoping to take advantage of a low-cost labor

market with duty-free access to the United States. One result of

that investment—increased Mexican production and exports to

the United States—has changed the trade patterns in North

America and brought renewed attention to the need to upgrade

trade corridors among these three countries.

Rapid trade growth, especially with Mexico, means a greater

flow of goods in specific trade corridors, many of which were

unprepared for increased traffic. For example, between 1994

and 1999, the value of Mexican imports by land modes passing

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transborder Surface Freight

data (Washington, DC: Various years), available at http://www.bts.gov/transborder, as of October 2000.

Total U.S. Surface Trade with Mexico and Canada: 1995-99 (Annual

totals)

Figure 4-23 Value in billions of U.S. dollars 250

300

350

100

50

0

150

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Canada

Mexico
4-32

Figure 4-24

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transborder Surface Freight data

(Washington, DC: Various years), available at http://www.bts.gov/transborder, as of October 2000.

Merchandise Exports to Mexico: 1998 (Surface modes)

Millions of U.S. dollars

 200 – 299

 300 – 999

 1,000 – 2,499

 2,500 or more

Baja California Norte

Baja California Sur

Guanajuato

Mexico

Jalisco

Sonora

Chihuahua

Distrito Federal

Nuevo Leon

Tamaulipas

Coahuila De Zaragoza

Figure 4-25

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transborder Surface

Freight data (Washington, DC: Various years), available at http://www.bts.gov/transborder, as of

October 2000.

Merchandise Imports from Mexico: 1998 (Surface modes)

Millions of U.S. dollars

Less than 1

1 – 224.9

225 – 499.9

500 – 999.9

1,000 or more
4-33

Figure 4-26

Merchandise Exports to Canada: 1998 (Surface modes)

Yukon 

Territory Northwest Territories

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

Prince Edward

Island

New Brunswick

Newfoundland

and Labrador

Nova Scotia

British

Columbia

Alberta

Ontario

Quebec

0.7 – 0.99

1 – 1.99

2 – 4.99

5 or more

Billions of U.S. dollars

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transborder Surface Freight data (Washington, DC:

Various years), available at http://www.bts.gov/transborder, as of October 2000.
4-34

Figure 4-27

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transborder Surface Freight data (Washington, DC: Various

years), available at http://www.bts.gov/transborder, as of October 2000.

Merchandise Imports from Canada: 1998 (Surface modes)

Yukon 

Territory

Northwest Territories

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

Prince Edward

Island

New Brunswick

Newfoundland

and Labrador

Nova Scotia

British

Columbia

Alberta

Ontario Quebec

1.1 – 1.49

1.5 – 1.99

2 – 4.99

5 or more

Billions of U.S. dollars
4-35

through Laredo, Texas, increased 248 percent. Otay Mesa, California, experienced a 95

percent increase. In the gateway port of Detroit, Michigan, total surface trade with Canada

increased 25 percent, and in Buffalo, New York, trade increased 53 percent [USDOT BTS

2000].

Even though the United States has delayed full implementation of the NAFTA trucking

provision because of concern about truck compliance with U.S. safety standards, more than

70 percent, based on value, of the U.S.-Mexico trade is carried by trucks [USDOT BTS 1999].

Figures 4-28 and 4-29 show the U.S. surface trade with Mexico and Canada by different

modes. Cross-border delays to and from Mexico have been blamed on inadequate infrastructure, lengthy inspection procedures, heavy traffic, and U.S. efforts to stop the influx of drugs

and illegal aliens.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,

Transborder Surface Freight data (Washington, DC: Various years), available at

http://www.bts.gov/transborder, as of October 2000.

U.S. Surface Trade with Canada (selected modes): 1995-99

(Annual totals)

Figure 4-29

 

Value in billion U.S. dollars 250

300

100

50

0

150

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Rail

Truck

Pipeline

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,

Transborder Surface Freight data (Washington, DC: Various years), available at http://

www.bts.gov/transborder, as of

October 2000.

U.S. Surface Trade with Mexico (selected modes): 1995-99

(Annual totals)

Figure 4-28 Value in billion U.S. dollars 100

120

140

160

40

20

0

60

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Rail

Truck

Pipeline
4-36

In the United States, traditional trade routes have been east-west, serving the coastal ports.

However, with NAFTA, new north-south trade corridors are emerging. Texas is concerned

about the truck traffic on its segment of Interstate 35, which is expected to increase 85 percent

by 2005. Concerns also have been raised about air quality at congested border crossings.

Simply adding capacity to existing systems is no longer seen as a salve for these problems.

Intelligent Transportation Systems (see chapter 6), which incorporate the use of advanced

communication and information technologies in managing day-to-day traffic operations, can

enhance safety, ease congestion, and reduce pollution by monitoring and coordinating traffic

flow.

Under TEA-21, a National Corridor Planning and Development Program and Coordinated

Border Infrastructure Program was established to fund improvements in national highway

corridors and border facilities. The program aims to improve border infrastructure and

transportation telecommunications to facilitate the safe and efficient movement of people and

goods at or across the U.S.-Canada and the U.S.-Mexico borders. The National Corridor

Planning and Development Program provides USDOT authority to allocate dollars to states

and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) for coordinated planning, design, and

construction of highway corridors.

Ports also are seeking NAFTA business. The Port of Mobile is starting high-speed intermodal

ferry service with the Canadian National Railroad and two Mexican partners, while the Port

of Galveston is initiating rail-barge service to Mexico’s east coast.

To the north, Canadian railroads have geared up to move more goods. Canadian National, an

east-west route, purchased Illinois Central, giving it access to the Port of New Orleans and the

Gulf of Mexico. Canadian Pacific purchased the Susquehanna Railroad for access to the Port

of New York and New Jersey.

In trucking, U.S. companies are restricted to a 49 percent ownership share in Mexican companies. Because of this restriction, American companies have formed alliances, joint ventures,

and partnerships with Mexican companies. Under NAFTA, full ownership would be permitted in 2004, but that provision may not be implemented as long as the United States delays

entry of Mexican trucks. NAFTA also will permit U.S. bus companies to own 100 percent of

Mexican companies, beginning in 2004.

To promote safety, the three countries have reached an agreement on comparable standards for

commercial driver ’s licenses. To ensure that Mexico-domiciled motor carriers comply with

U.S. statutes, USDOT and states are establishing controls and enhancing safeguards,

including verifying registration information, using automated data and state safety inspectors

to monitor compliance, implementing consistent enforcement policies, and allocating

additional resources for the border program. California has hired additional inspectors and is

working to provide adequate mechanisms to control access of Mexico-domiciled motor

carriers into the United States. Texas, which receives two-thirds of the truck traffic from

Mexico, has also hired more than 100 additional inspectors, while Arizona has opened new

inspection facilities. In addition, the new Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has

hired additional border personnel.

The NAFTA agreement did not cover aviation, but the United States has signed liberalizing

agreements with both Canada and Mexico. The 1995 agreement with Canada replaced a

restrictive treaty and, after an initial period of slow growth, resulted in a 37 percent increase in

passenger traffic in the first 3 years, with 42 percent more nonstop destinations. Today, the

U.S.-Canadian market is the world’s largest bilateral aviation market. A 1999 agreement with

Mexico expanded code-sharing rights for U.S. and Mexican airlines. Six U.S. airlines were
4-37

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People, Energy, and

the Environment

chapter 5

“The transportation enterprise must be equitable, flexible, and

sensitive to environmental issues. We must keep in mind that e must keep in mind that

transportation is a means—not an end; the common good must transportation is a means—not an end; the common good must

take priority over specific group’ take priority over specific group’s opposition to projects.”

Christopher Zearfoss

Acting Deputy Mayor, City of Philadelphia

2025 Visioning Session, Sept. 14, 2000, Philadelphia, PA.

“25 years from now, alternative fuel vehicles, hybrid electrics, and

fuel cells will have a large market share”

Vision of the Denver Roundtable

2025 Visioning Session, Denver CO, Apr. 4, 2000

“Transportation needs to focus more on ‘how can it best ransportation needs to focus more on ‘how can it best

accommodate and work for people with disabilities,’ instead of accommodate and work for people with disabilities,’ instead of

‘how can we comply with the rules and regulations’.”

Debbie Kaplan, World Institute on Disability

2025 Visioning Session, Berkeley, CA, June 24, 2000

5-1

People, Energy, and

the Environment

chapter 5

Patterns of demographic change stamp their image indelibly on the transportation system.

By 2025, the U.S. population is expected to grow by nearly 23 percent, and the number of

Americans in older age groups will multiply as “baby boomers” continue to enter their senior

years. For these aging Americans, funds formerly devoted to buying homes, raising children,

and paying for college are becoming available as discretionary income, increasing the freedom

to travel. These household composition shifts, changes in labor force

participation and household income, and shifts in licensing and vehicle

ownership all affect transportation and individual mobility.

These demographic changes are transforming the day-to-day life of

American households and altering the demands and challenges facing

the transportation enterprise. Increased awareness of other peoples and

increased global activity create a greater interest in travel. At the same

time, Americans share a greater sensitivity to the importance of the

environment and the close interaction between transportation activities

and environmental impacts, as well as the use of energy and other

natural resources.

Transportation, as the major energy-using sector of the U.S. economy,

plays a major role in both energy conservation and the environment.

As demographic shifts occur, levels of energy use will change, and their

combined impact on the environment will shift. Although an adequate

fuel supply is available to American consumers, the United States is

becoming increasingly dependent on imported oil. Patterns of energy

use, petroleum dependence, and the sustainability of energy supplies

will greatly influence our future transportation options.

Addressing concerns over the environmental impact of transportation is

now a fundamental part of transportation decisionmaking. The interdependence between transportation and the environment continues to

require great care in keeping the two appropriately balanced. For

example, automobiles are more fuel efficient and emit significantly fewer

pollutants than did their 1975 counterparts, and the use of transportation funding in the nation’s metropolitan area is tied directly to the steps

needed to maintain air quality. The Transportation Efficiency Act for the

21st Century (TEA-21) strengthens metropolitan and statewide planning

and has been called one of the most important pieces of legislation

passed by Congress in recent years. TEA-21 continues and strengthens

the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act’s (ISTEA’s) emphasis on the environment. It improves communities and quality of life

through transportation and transit enhancements and protects and

“This is truly a

mountaintop moment for

America. We are strong

and prosperous. Our

automotive and related

industries – which employ about one out of

seven Americans – are

leading the world. I

believe we have to use

this moment to make the

investments that will

keep our progress and

prosperity going far into

the future. By reducing

our dependence on foreign

oil; by reducing greenhouse gas emissions; and

by positioning the American auto industry as the

world leader in a crucial

new market in this new

economy.”

Vice President Al Gore

Mar. 30, 2000
5-2

enhances the environment through several programs, including

the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Program (CMAQ).

TEA-21 significantly increases funding for the CMAQ program,

creates new transit enhancements program, provides additional

incentives to foster use of alternative modes of transportation,

and increases funding for recreational trails program.

Each of these factors—people, energy, and the environment—

influence transportation demand, some positively, some negatively, and each leads to changes in the markets served by the

transportation enterprise. This chapter looks at mobility trends

and access for people, energy use, and impacts of transportation

on our environment over the last 25 years. It also highlights key

issues for the future.

Mobility and Access

Mobility—the freedom to travel without undue restraint—must be available to all Americans.

Travel has always contributed to Americans’ enjoyment of their lives and leisure. When

transportation does not work well, it can be a source of great personal frustration and economic loss. Safe and efficient transportation, by contrast, supports the freedom and access

Americans have always cherished. Travel includes local, long-distance, and international

travel by all modes of transportation. Local travel includes daily activities—work, school,

shopping, personal business, social activities, and recreation. Intercity travel generally

includes long-distance travel or an overnight stay away from home. Taken together, local and

intercity travel represent total national travel. International travel encompasses travel by air

and water, as well as travel by highway and railway to and from Canada and Mexico. This

section summarizes national trends in the demand for and use of transportation services by

household and demographic characteristics. Discussions focus on the various transportation

users and the implications of past and current trends for future transportation services.

Local Travel: America is a nation of prodigious travelers. Local travel has grown by 50 percent since the mid-1970s. In the mid-1990s, people traveled an average of 14,000 mile per year

in and around their communities (table 5-1) [USDOT FHWA Various years]. Local travel

activity focuses on the household and involves many different daily activities. For the past

two decades, growth in local travel has exceeded population growth for several reasons,

including household income, household composition shifts, changes in labor force participation, and shifts in licensing and vehicle ownership.

Demographic Trends: Demographic factors are among the most important considerations in

any projection of future transportation demand. Changes in the size and composition of the

American population have a major impact on the growth of our labor force and on demands

for a variety of consumable items, including transportation. The dominant demographic story

of the post-World War II period has been the birth and aging of the baby boom generation. The

movement of this generation from early adulthood through the beginning of their retirement

years provided the demographic theme for the past quarter century.

Lower birth rates, the maturation of the baby boomers’ offspring, and changing trends in

society (e.g., later marriage, greater longevity, and higher divorce rates) have all served to

decrease household sizes in the later years of the 20th century (table 5-2). If our current

population of 275 million people were contained in households of the size prevalent in 1975,

they would comprise 88 million households instead of the 100 million households in America

today. Because much of the demand for transportation is household-based, implications for

“Regardless of where we

Americans live or where

we stand on the economic scale, one thing

that unites us is our

desire for a high quality

of life, safe communities,

healthy open spaces, and

reduced congestion.”

Vice President, Al Gore

Livable Communities Initiative

Feb. 4, 2000
5-3

the transportation enterprise are immense. Food shopping and

other household chores generate substantial travel. The estimated

12 million additional households spawned by today’s demographic trends contribute greatly to the increase in both local and

long-distance travel.

Further, the smaller size of

households reflects lower

dependence ratios—the ratio

of those not of working-age

(under 16 and over 65), to

those of working age (figure 5-1). This means that

more persons in each household are fundamentally

responsible for supporting

themselves rather than also

supporting spouses, children,

or parents. This has been the

most important factor responsible for increases in discretionary time and discretionary income, leading to more

leisure travel. Figure 5-1

illustrates the dependence

ratio in 1970 where the baby

Population and Passenger Travel in the United States: 1977 and 1995

Notes: Data used for local travel are from the travel-day file and include trips of

all lengths made by respondents on a single day. About 95 percent of these trips

were 30 miles or less.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,

1995 American Travel Survey, data; U.S. Department of Commerce, Census

Bureau, National Travel Survey, Travel During 1977 (Washington, DC: 1979);

U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United

States 1998 (Washington, DC: 1998); U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal

Highway Administration, Summary of Travel Trends: 1995 Nationwide Personal

Transportation Survey (Washington, DC: 1999).

Table 5-1

1995

Percentage increase

1977 1977 to 1995

Resident population (thousands)

Annual local person trips (travel day) (millions)1

Annual long-distance person trips (millions)

Local person trips per capita, one way (per day)1

Long-distance trips per capita, roundtrip (per year)

Local person-miles (millions)1

Long-distance person-miles (millions)

Local person-miles per capita1 (annually)

Long-distance person-miles per capita (annually)

Local mean trip length (miles)

Long-distance mean trip length (miles)

219,760

211,778

521

2.4

2.5

1,879,215

382,466

9,470

1,796

8.9

733

262,761

378,930

1,001

4.3

3.9

3,411,122

826,804

14,115

3,129

9.0

826

20

79

92

47

56

82

116

49

74

1

13

1 Persons over 5 years of age.

Average Household Size:

1970-98

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,

U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of

the United States (Washington, DC: 1998).

Table 5-2

Year Number of persons

1970

1980

1990

1998

3.14

2.76

2.63

2.62

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the

United States (Washington, DC: Various years); U.S. Census Bureau, Projections of the

Resident Population by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1999 to 2100

(Washington, DC: 2000).

Dependence Ratio: 1950-2030

Figure 5-1

Ratio

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Over 65

Under 16

Projected
5-4

boomers, as children, dominated the dependence structure and in 2010 where they begin to

dominate again as the older population.

One of the most impressive trends of the U.S. economy over the past 25 years has been the

absorption of an expanding working-age population into the labor market as the baby boom

generation moved from childhood into adulthood. Since the 1970s, the economy has been

creating jobs at about twice the rate of population growth.

One facet of the trends in this period was the growth in workers that resulted from baby

boomers coming of working age from the mid-1960s through the mid-1980s. Another facet

was the enormous growth in women joining the labor force during that period (figure 5-2). In

the 1980s, we added more people to the labor force than to the total population. In the 1970s

and 1980s there was a discernible spike in the growth of the workforce and, therefore, in the

number of commuters. From 1990 through 1999, another 13.5 million workers were added to

the labor force [USDOL BLS 2000]. The female share of the labor force rose from 29 percent to

about 47 percent from 1950 through 1999 [USDOC Census 1978; USDOL BLS 2000].

Since 1975, traffic volume

and transportation characteristics, including trip

chaining, have been

affected by the labor force

trends. Trip chaining is a

term used to describe a

pattern of travel first

evident during the early

1970’s energy crisis when

households began to

incorporate a number of

stops for different purposes

into one trip to save fuel.

Both men and women

began to conduct their

household chores (i.e.,

dropping off children and

dry cleaning) on the way to

and from work and making

stops on the way home (i.e.,

grocery shopping and picking up children).

In 1995, about 33 percent of

women made stops on their

way to work, compared

with 19 percent of men;

61 percent of women made

stops on their way home

from work, compared with 46 percent of men [McGuckin & Murakami 1999]. While trip

chaining represents a time- and fuel-efficient approach to travel, it adds to congestion in peak

commuter periods and makes carpooling and transit use difficult.

Another key change in travel from women’s increased labor force participation was that by

1990, 70 percent of workers lived in households with two or more workers. Having these

dual-worker households has changed the character of local travel. One effect is that many

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the

United States (Washington, DC: 1998); U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor

Statistics, Employment Status of the Civilian Noninstitutional Population 16 Years and Over

by Sex, 1967 to Date, available at http://www.bls.gov/pdf/cpsaat2.pdf, as of Aug. 9,

2000.

Additions to the Labor Force per Decade: 1950-2000

Figure 5-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1998

Millions of workers

Female

Male
5-5

carpools are now really family activities with two or more household members participating.

But more significantly, multiworker households change the nature of the work-home relationship. Both the potential for and impact of living near the workplace are changed when one

worker chooses to move. As a result, the other worker or workers in the household may be

located further from their work. It also creates the need for joint leisure travel planning, which

has changed to more frequent trips of shorter duration. Multiworker households also may

choose to be located in larger metropolitan areas where more job opportunities are available.

Household Income: One measure of the value that Americans place on mobility is that they

spend a relatively large share of their incomes on transportation. Only expenditures on

housing exceed those for transportation in the typical household budget [USDOL BLS 1998].

A key factor in recent travel growth is increased household income, which has a substantial

impact on both trip frequency and trip length. Study of income and travel behavior relationships supports the observation that transportation is both a necessity and a discretionary

good. For many lower income households, transportation spending is a necessity that

consumes a significant share of total expenditures. Transportation spending ranges from

about $2,500 for the lowest income quintile to nearly $12,500 per year for households with the

highest income quintile. About 94 percent of all spending is related to the acquisition, operation, and upkeep of motor vehicles. The remainder goes to air travel, local transit, and miscellaneous purchases and rentals.

Licensing and Vehicle Ownership Patterns: On average, the adult population of the United

States has reached saturation levels in drivers licenses. Saturation is a term used to describe

the point at which the number of drivers licenses equals or nearly equals the number of people

legally eligible to obtain a license. Older age groups—those born before the advent of the auto

age—still have low levels of licensing, but these groups are being replaced by high licenseholding groups as they age. In the past three decades, the number of people holding licenses

increased by more than 70 percent—men by 50 percent and women by nearly 100 percent

[USDOT FHWA, Various years]. However, the rate of growth in the number of new licensees

has decreased within the same time period (figure 5-3) [USDOT FHWA Annual issues].

Although the number of people holding a license, on average, has greatly increased since

1975, licensing levels remain skewed by racial and ethnic group. For the most part, license

saturation has occurred among the white population. Among most minority groups, there

still is significant potential for growth, particularly among minority women (table 5-3). The

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway

Statistics, Summary to 1995 (Washington, DC: 1997).

Drivers Licenses by Sex: 1975-95

(Five-year increases)

Figure 5-3

1975

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

2,000

4,000

1980 1985 1990 1995

Number of licenses

Male

Female
5-6

gap in licensed minorities is most pronounced among those over age 60, but even among

young adults, there are significant differences (figure 5-4). The most notable are the youngest

groups of African-Americans, among whom only one-half have licenses. Given that a drivers

license often is a passport to job opportunities, this has broad significance.

In 1977, the household vehicle fleet of America numbered about 120 million vehicles. But,

after a decade in which the nation added more vehicles than people—23 million vehicles and

22 million people between 1980 and 1990—Americas’ household vehicle fleet surpassed

175 million vehicles in 1995 as more than 50 million vehicles were added in less than 20 years

[USDOT FHWA Various years]. Vehicles per household rose from 1.59 in 1977 to 1.78 in 1995,

despite declining household sizes in this period. More significantly, vehicles per household

surpassed licensed drivers per household by 1990, essentially producing saturation. In

addition, most households have more vehicles per household than workers per household,

indicating that almost all American workers have access to a vehicle for work travel. However, while the proportion of households with no vehicle has dropped sharply in the past

25 years, there were still about 8 million American households without vehicles in 1995

(figure 5-5).

Licensing Rate of Whites and African-Americans by Age: 1995

Figure 5-4

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1995 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey data

(Washington, DC: 2000), available at www-cta.ornl.gov/npts, as of October 2000.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent

16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-79 80-84 85+

Age group

African-American

White

Licensing by Race/Ethnicity: 1995

(Percent)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal

Highway Administration, 1995 Nationwide

Personal Transportation Survey data (Washington,

DC: 2000), available at www.cta.ornl.gov/npts, as

of October 2000.

Table 5-3

95

81

93

87

90

69

80

74

Male Female

White

African-American

Asian

Hispanic
5-7

As a direct result of improvements in vehicle quality and

longevity, affordable and effective

older vehicles were available to

purchasers who may not have

been able to afford a vehicle

otherwise. In effect, increased

vehicle longevity lowered the

threshold costs of owning and

operating a vehicle. Since the

1970s, the fleet of private vehicles

six or more years old has grown

substantially (figure 5-6). In

1977, the average age of the

private vehicle fleet was

6 years—in 1995, it was 8 years

[USDOT FHWA Various Years].

Older vehicles are being used at

increasing levels. New vehicles,

or those less than three years old,

cover about the same distance

annually as they did in the past,

approximately 16,000 miles per

year. But, there have been

significant increases in annual

miles of travel for vehicles

10 years or older, from roughly

6,800 miles per year in 1977 to

8,800 miles in 1995 [USDOT

FHWA Various years].

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Summary of Travel Trends: 1995 Nationwide

Personal Transportation Survey (Washington, DC: 1999).

Household Vehicle Ownership: 1969, 1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995

Figure 5-5 Percent

0 vehicles 1 vehicle 2 vehicles 3 or more vehicles

1969

1977

1983

1990

1995

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,

Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey data (Washington, DC: Various years).

Distribution of the Private Vehicle Fleet by Age of Vehicle:

1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995

Figure 5-6 Percent

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1977 1983 1990 1995

0-2

3-5

Years

6-9

10+
5-8

The improved longevity of vehicles combined with lower relative costs of owning and operating a vehicle has resulted in their pervasive use for all travel purposes. One of the effects of

this increasing availability of vehicles was a marked decline in carpooling for work travel and

declining auto occupancy rates for other trip purposes. Average vehicle occupancies for work

travel declined from about 1.3 per vehicle in 1977 to about 1.1 by 1995. Occupancies for all

purposes dropped from 1.9 to 1.6 in the same period [USDOT FHWA NPTS Various years].

Changing Trip Purposes and Patterns: One important change over the past 25 years has been

the purpose of travel. In the early 1970s, work was the major factor influencing travel. However, since then, while commuting has grown rapidly, trips for household chores and personal

business have grown even faster (figure 5-7) [USDOT FHWA Various years].

As households and jobs have shifted to the suburbs, commuting, as well as other trip purposes, have increasingly taken on a circumferential rather than a radial pattern. Contemporary commuting flows are dominated by suburb-to-suburb flows (figure 5-8), which accounted

for half of all commuting growth between 1980 and 1990. The dominance of the suburb-tosuburb pattern tends to increase with the size of metropolitan area and has been strongest in

areas where population exceeds two million. In contrast, smaller metropolitan areas tend to

retain the importance of their center [Pisarski 1996].

Another flow pattern that has increased is “reverse-commuting,” as city residents commute

outward to suburban jobs. This is a critical commuting concern because of the difficulties in

serving the growing transportation needs of this population, particularly those with low

income (box 5-1). As metropolitan areas grow closer together, there also has been a small, but

rapidly growing, flow pattern from rural areas into suburbs and from suburbs of one metropolitan area into the suburbs of another as edges of metropolitan areas grow closer together.

The net result is a complex commuting pattern comprised of many cross-directional flows.

Personal Travel: 1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995

Figure 5-7

Note: The Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) was first conducted in 1969, and then again in 1977, 1983, 1990, and

1995. Numerous methodological improvements in the NPTS make exact comparisons across time difficult, but travel behavior for

these two points in time are adequately reflected in the survey data.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey

(Washington, DC: Various years).

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Person-trips per person per day

Work Family/

personal business

School/

church

Social/

recreational

Other

1977

1983

1990

1995
5-9

Access to Jobs

Changes in the nation’s welfare system in 1996 have promoted aggressive public- and privatesector actions to provide employment opportunities for welfare recipients. More than 5.6 million

Americans left the welfare rolls between August 1996, when President Clinton signed a sweeping

welfare overhaul into law, and September 1999. There were 46 percent fewer individuals and 44

percent fewer families on welfare in September 1999 than in August 1996. Welfare rolls

dropped in every state during this period, in some cases, by as much as 90 percent [USDHHS

2000].

With these changes, communities are becoming increasingly aware that one of the keys to moving

people from welfare to work and helping them keep a job is providing adequate and reliable

transportation. Obtaining reliable transportation to and from work, and often to and from

childcare facilities, is a challenge that employees and employers struggle to meet. Transportation is

the “to” in welfare to work. We have strived to make our transportation system inclusive in service,

leaving no one behind.

According to a 1998 survey conducted by Wirthlin Worldwide [Welfare to Work Partnership,

1998], more than half of businesses participating in the Welfare to Work Partnership, a publicprivate initiative to help workers make the transition, found that employee transportation is a

problem. The most common problems reported were deficiencies in public transportation. Thirtythree percent of employers surveyed said that there are no public transportation routes near their

businesses, and 18 percent said that public transportation does not operate during the hours

necessary to transport workers to and from work.

Many entry-level jobs, especially in the service and retail sectors, require employees to work late

hours and weekends. People in these jobs may find that their needs are not met by transit service

geared to the standard “9-to-5” workday. Additionally, job growth has increasingly occurred in

Source: A. Pisarski, Commuting in America II (Lansdowne, VA: Eno Transportation Foundation, Inc.,

1996).

Commuting Flow: 1960-90

Figure 5-8 Millions of workers

City center

to

city center

City center

to

suburbs

Suburbs

to

city center

Suburbs

to

suburbs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 1960

1970

1980

1990

(continued on next page)

Box 5-1
5-10

suburbs, forcing many central-city residents to rely on “reverse commute” transit services and

vanpools that go to suburban office parks, shopping malls, and other sites. In rural areas, transit

service is a lifeline for millions of residents.

Access to Jobs

One response to the problem has been the federal Job Access and Reverse Commute grant

program. A part of the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21), the program

assists states and localities in developing new or expanded transportation services that connect

welfare recipients and other low-income persons to jobs and other employment-related services.

Job Access projects are targeted at developing new or expanded transportation services such as

shuttles, vanpools, new bus routes, connector services to mass transit, and guaranteed-ride-home

programs for welfare recipients and low-income persons. Reverse Commute projects provide

transportation services to suburban employment centers from urban, rural, and other suburban

locations for all populations.

Changing Modal Choice: Automobiles and other private vehicles are used for most local trips

(figure 5-9). This share has increased since 1977. Moreover, when people drive they now are

more likely to have fewer passengers with them. For example, car-pooling to work has

declined from about 15 percent of commuters in 1977 to 10 percent in 1995. Additionally,

average per-vehicle occupancy for work travel declined by 15 percent per vehicle in 1977 to

about 1.1 in 1995. Occupancies for all purposes dropped from 16 percent during this same

period [USDOT FHWA Various years]. Trends in the annual number of trips taken by each

house hold and their choice of transportation are shown in figure 5-10.

Note: The Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) was first conducted in

1969, and then again in 1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995. Numerous methodological

improvements in the NPTS make exact comparisons across time difficult, but travel

behavior for these two points in time are adequately (if not perfectly) reflected in the

survey data.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1995

Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey data (Washington, DC: 2000), available at

www-cta.ornl.gov/npts, as of October 2000.

Annual Household Trips by Mode: 1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995

Figure 5-10 Household trips

0

500

1977 1983 1990 1995

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Private vehicle

Public transit

Walk

Other

Box 5-1 continued

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1995 Nationwide Personal

Transportation Survey data (Washington, DC: 2000), available at

www-cta.ornl.gov/npts, as of October

2000.

Transportation Choice for Trips Under

50 Miles: 1995

Figure 5-9

Taxi, other

4%

School bus

2%

Walk

6%

Bicycle

1%

Transit

2%

Automobile

57%

Other personal

vehicle

28%
5-11

Access to Transportation for Americans with Disabilities

Many people have disabilities that make it difficult or impossible for them to operate a motor

vehicle or to use public transportation without special equipment or assistance. Such disabilities

can include problems with walking or other motor functions, hearing or sight impairments, and/or

various cognitive and mental difficulties. People who are unable to fully use the transportation

system may experience reduced access to opportunities for employment, health care, education,

shopping, social and cultural events, and recreation. But our transportation system must be

inclusive in service, providing access to opportunities for all Americans.

In 1990, Congress passed the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), which protects persons with

disabilities from discrimination in employment, provision of public services and accommodations,

and transportation. The ADA defines a disability as a physical or mental impairment that substantially limits one or more of an individual’s major life activities. The Census Bureau estimates that, at

the end of 1994, about 1 in 5 people in the United States, including both adults and children, had

some form of disability (54 million), while 1 in 10 had a severe disability (26 million) [McNeil

1997].

Under the ADA, it is a violation of civil rights law to discriminate against people with disabilities in

providing public transportation. When federal funds are involved, accessibility guidelines are also

governed by Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973. Although the ADA applies nationwide, about 600 public transportation agencies and 700 key railroad stations have been the focal

point for most transportation compliance activities. Figure 5-11 shows the general improvement in

accessible transit vehicles. Today, 83 percent of transit buses are ADA accessible, an increase of

nearly 30 percent since 1994. It is expected that 100 percent of transit buses will be accessible by

2002. (Additional ADA requirements apply to intercity bus lines, Amtrak, and other public and

private carriers. A separate law, the Air Carriers Access Act of 1986, makes it illegal for air

carriers to discriminate against people with physical or mental impairments.)

One of the main effects of the ADA is that paratransit (e.g., alternative transportation arrangements for the disabled) is no longer to be used as a substitute for fixed-route service. Under the

ADA, fixed-route service must be made available to the disabled; paratransit is to be provided only

when fixed-route transit does not meet a customer’s needs or is inappropriate to the situation.

Moreover, paratransit eligibility is no longer based on a person’s disability, but on whether or not

the person has the ability to use the fixed-route system.

In 1998, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) amended its ADA regulations to require

accessibility for new over-the-road buses (OTRBs). The new rule applies both to intercity and other

fixed-route bus operators and to charter- and tour-bus operators. The rules require operators to

ensure that passengers with disabilities can use OTRBs.

ADA-Accessible Vehicles by Mode: 1994-97

Figure 5-11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percentage of fleet

Buses Heavy rail Commuter rail Light rail Demand 

response

1994

1995

1996

1997

Source: U.S. Department of

Transportation, Federal

Transit Administration,

Federal Transit Summaries

and Trends (Washington, DC:

1998), p.25.

Box 5-2
5-12

Long-Distance Travel: Initiated for a variety of purposes, long-distance travel—both intercity

and international—has increased dramatically in the past 25 years. Long-distance travel has

become more international in reach, linking us to destinations around the world. Longdistance travel trips—over 100 miles one-way from home—include more frequent, shorter

duration trips and more travel around weekends than did long-distance travel trips of two

decades ago. In addition, as female labor-force participation rates have increased, women are

traveling more.

On average, each American makes about 4 long-distance trips per year averaging about

830 miles each, up from the 1977 average of about 2.4 trips per year. In 1995, Americans

generated about a billion long-distance roundtrips per year within the United States

(table 5-1). Long-distance travel accounts for only a small fraction of trips, but nearly 25 percent of total national travel in terms of miles traveled. The transportation system also is used

by approximately 50 million foreign visitors who come to the United States by air each year,

and millions more who arrive by land and sea [USDOT BTS 1999].

Some of the same factors that have spurred local travel have also led

to an increase in long-distance travel over the past 25 years, including

population and household growth, higher median income, and

greater vehicle availability. Other factors, such as increasing regional

interdependencies (including globalization) of economic production

and consumption, and lower airfares (adjusted for inflation), have

also caused this growth. The critical attributes of long-distance trips

are purpose of the trip and length of the trip. These two factors

determine the trip’s time and cost sensitivities, and, thereby, affect the

mode of transportation chosen. Traveler characteristics are also

important, partly because of the substantial variation in long-distance

trips. Characteristics of significance include gender, age, income, race

and ethnicity, and family composition.

Long-distance travel can have multiple purposes, such as a work trip

that includes a vacation and even a visit to local friends and relatives.

The broad-purpose categories used in the American Travel Survey are

business, which accounts for about 23 percent of domestic longdistance travel; pleasure travel, accounting for about 63 percent of the

trips; and personal business trips, with about 15 percent of the trips

[USDOT BTS 1997a].

Modal choice is greatly influenced by the distance of the trip (figure 5-12). For roundtrips up

to 1,000 miles, the automobile dominates; thereafter, air travel gains an increasing share. The

other modes—scheduled intercity bus, charter bus, and Amtrak passenger rail service—have

short- to intermediate-distance roles, but their combined share of all trips is less than 5 

percent.

Travel by personal vehicle accounts for more than 80 percent of all domestic trips, but only

about 55 percent of miles; air travel accounts for only 16 percent of all trips, but 43 percent of

miles traveled. Intercity bus travel, including charter trips, is 2 percent of all trips and 1.6 percent of the miles. Amtrak’s share is about one-half of one percent for both number of trips and

miles traveled. Ships have a negligible share [USDOT BTS 1997a].

Intercity transportation modes serve very different trip purposes (figure 5-13). For example,

business travel is a major factor in air travel services, but less so in other modes. The “visit

friends and relatives market” is critical to the scheduled bus industry, and leisure travel is

critical to the charter bus market. The personal-use vehicle has significant roles in all travel

purposes.

“Transportation is only a

means to an end: getting

people, products, and

information where they

need to go. We need to

encourage forms of transportation that fulfill this

mission without harming

the environment, including public transit,

carpooling, bicycles,

walking, and

telecommuting.”

Mortimer Downey

Deputy Secretary of Transportation

Fifth Conference on U.S.–Japan

Cooperation In Transportation

June 2, 1998, Washington, D.C.
5-13

In travel for all purposes, the use of the private vehicle declines as the distance of the trip

increases. However, it declines much more quickly and sharply in business travel

(figure 5-14). This is undoubtedly due to the time sensitivities of business travel.

There is substantial variation in trip making among men and women. Although there has

been substantial growth in women’s long-distance travel in some areas, their travel still lags

behind men’s. Both men and women have increased their long-distance trip making rates by

about 60 percent over 1977 rates. But overall, women make only 80 percent as many longdistance trips as men, unchanged from 1977 (figure 5-15). This is most notable in two areas:

women still make only 40 percent as many long-distance business trips as men; and they

make only about 85 percent as many long-distance leisure trips as men, primarily because

women take fewer outdoor recreational trips for activities such as camping and fishing.

Women do, however, make more trips to visit friends and relatives [USDOC 1979; USDOT BTS

1997b].

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 1995 American Travel Survey:

U.S. Profile (Washington, DC: 1997).

Mode of Transportation by Roundtrip Distance: 1995

Figure 5-12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Number of household trips, millions

Roundtrip distance (miles)

Less than 300 300-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000+

Private vehicle

Air

Other

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,1995 American Travel Survey: U.S.

Profile (Washington, DC: 1997).

Trip Purpose by Mode of Travel: 1995

Figure 5-13 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent

All

modes

Private

vehicle

Commercial 

air

Intercity bus Charter bus Train

Business

Visit friends/relatives

Leisure travel

Personal business
5-14

Age is, and will continue to be, a significant factor in long-distance travel. But the age distribution of travelers has shifted significantly since 1977 (figure 5-16). The peak travel age has

shifted from the 35-to-44 age group in 1977 to the 45-to-54 age group (the age group into

which the baby boomers are moving) in 1995. Those above age 55 also had a noticeable

increase in travel, compared to 1977 figures [USDOC 1979; USDOT BTS 1997b].

Travel by African-Americans increased more than for whites and Hispanics between 1977

and 1995. African-Americans made about 80 percent more long-distance trips in 1995 than in

1977, compared with about a 60 percent increase for both whites and Hispanics (figure 5-17).

But travel activity for whites is still double that of Hispanics and African-Americans [USDOC

1979; USDOT BTS 1997b].

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 1995 American Travel Survey data

(Washington, DC: 2000), available at http://www.bts.gov/ats, as of October 2000.

Vehicle Use by Distance and Trip Purpose: 1995

Figure 5-14

300-499 500-999

Roundtrip distance (miles)

<300 1,000-1,999 2,000+

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Business

Leisure

Personal business

Visit friends/relatives

Percent

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,

1995 American Travel Survey data (Washington, DC: 2000), available at http://

www.bts.gov/ats, as of October 2000.

Female-to-Male Ratios of Long-Distance Travel-Miles by Purpose:

1995

Figure 5-15

Business

Travel - mile ratio

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Visit

friends/

relatives

Leisure Personal

business

All trips
5-15

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 1995

American Travel Survey data (Washington, DC: 2000), available at http://www.bts.gov/ats,

as of October 2000.

Long-Distance Trip Making Rates by Age Group: 1977 and 1995

Figure 5-16

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Annual trips per person

< 18 18– 24 25– 34 35– 44 45– 54 55– 64 65+

1977

1995

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 1995

American Travel Survey data (Washington, DC: 2000), available at http://

www.bts.gov/ats, as of October 2000.

Annual Long-Distance Trip Rates: 1977 and 1995

Figure 5-17

1977 1995

Personal trips per person

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0 Black

Hispanic

White
5-16

Income also has a major impact on the propensity to travel long distances. Those with

incomes greater than $50,000 per year in 1995 made 5.6 long-distance trips per year, compared with 2.2 long-distance trips per year for those earning under $25,000 and

3.8 long-distance trips for those in the middle income group [USDOT BTS 1997b]. Most of the

growth in long-distance travel between 1977 and 1995 occurred in higher income groups

[USDOC 1979; USDOT BTS 1997b].

Keys to the Future

The future of passenger transportation over the next 25 years will depend on a wide range of

factors: demographics, immigration, social equity, affluence, and urban decentralization.

The changing age profile in America will facilitate growth in both local and intercity passenger travel in the near term, but reduce growth over the long term (figure 5-18). As the baby

boom generation passes through the ages when people travel most (in their 40s and 50s),

passenger travel will increase. However, beginning in 2011, the eldest of this group reaches

the traditional retirement age of 65. After retirement, personal travel tends to remain the same,

while work travel is reduced substantially. As people become increasingly physically and

mentally frail in their 70s and 80s, all travel declines.

Counteracting the aging population will be the number of new immigrants entering the

country. Future population growth will result largely from immigration. Because most

immigrants are adults, they have an immediate impact on the transportation system. These

individuals tend to use the transit system more than other sectors of the population because of

lower income and because they tend to locate in urban areas. Transit use tends to decline the

longer an immigrant is in the country, and subsequent generations tend to adopt the same

transit profile as the rest of the population.

Another possible source of travel growth is social equity, particularly growth in vehicle

ownership and, therefore, vehicle travel among racial and ethnic minorities. About 95 percent

of white households have at least one vehicle, compared with about 88 percent of Hispanic

households and about 75 percent of African-American households. Increases in vehicle use

among these groups will be a function of vehicle cost, income, and geographic location.

Cyclical and long-term changes in economic activity have a strong impact on the level of local

and long-distance travel. Income growth generally increases the propensity to make more

frequent and longer trips. But increased affluence also tends to increase the value people

place on time, generally pushing them to faster means of transportation, such as the singleoccupant vehicle and (on longer trips) aircraft. The interaction of an aging population,

smaller households, and time pressures may, in some places, influence people to live in

smaller, higher density neighborhoods that have more potential for transit use and walking.

On the whole, the dominant trend will still be urban decentralization, spurred by technology

that allows people to set up home-based businesses in order to work at home, or to have

multiple places of work—which will include private vehicles. Technology also will increasingly allow employers to locate facilities near skilled employees and in places with spare road

and airport capacity. Increases in the share of workers who telecommute part or full-time

imply that the location and type of transportation necessary to support a given level of

economic activity will change. Increasing use of the Internet for the purchase of goods and

services will affect the nature and location of shopping travel, with increased freight deliveries

to residences.
5-17

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States (Washington, DC: 1999).

Estimated Percentage of Total State Population Over the Age of 65: 1975, 1998, and 2025

Figure 5-18

Percentage over 65

1975

1998

2025

2.56 - 11.99

12 - 15.99

16 - 19.99

20 - 23.99

24 - 26.33
5-18

The USDOT’s mobility goals are directed toward improving the physical condition of the

infrastructure, reducing transportation time from origin to destination, increasing accessibility, reducing costs, and increasing reliability. To achieve these goals, the USDOT will address

the efficient use of transportation resources; anticipate the needs of low-income, minority, and

older Americans; address transportation needs in key geographic areas; ensure mobility in

response to emergencies and disruptions; address feedback from customers; and improve

information collection.

All mobility outcomes present complex measurement issues. Accordingly, the USDOT will:

develop a means of measuring user transportation cost, time, and reliability with timeseries data;

develop better approaches for measuring access;

develop a straightforward measure of congestion and its costs;

produce more timely and comprehensive data on the condition and use of the transportation system; and

develop a more complete understanding of variables influencing travel behavior.

Energy

Transportation cannot occur without energy, which is a major concern for the transportation

industry because of the environmental consequences of using energy and because the world’s

resources of petroleum, on which most modern transportation systems rely, are limited. This

section focuses on the nature of transportation energy use, the industry’s dependence on

petroleum and the consequences thereof, and the sustainability of energy supplies for future

transportation needs.

Transportation is a major energy-using sector of the U.S. economy. Transportation used

26 quadrillion Btu (British thermal unit) (quads) of energy in 1999, 27 percent of the 97 quads

used by the entire U.S. economy [USDOE EIA 1999a]. This approximate energy use by transportation has not varied by more than three or four percentage points since 1950. Total

transportation energy use, however, has nearly tripled since 1950 (figure 5-19). From 1950

until the first oil price shock in 1973, transportation energy use increased steadily, at an

average annual rate of 3.5 percent. Since then, the average rate of growth has slowed to

1.2 percent, partly due to improved energy efficiency [USDOE EIA 1999a].

Petroleum supplies more than 95 percent of the energy used in transportation and has done so

for the past 40 years (figure 5-19). The largest nonpetroleum energy uses in transportation are

natural gas and electricity for pipelines and natural gas-derived liquids blended with gasoline. While other sectors of the economy reduced their petroleum dependence after the oil

supply upheavals of the 1970s and 1980s, transportation has remained nearly totally dependent on petroleum, despite significant efforts to promote alternative fuels. The Alternative

Motor Fuels Act of 1988 and the Energy Policy Act of 1992 provide a combination of tax

incentives, fuel economy credits, and fleet mandates that have helped increase the numbers of

alternative-fuel vehicles on U.S. roads from an estimated 251,000 in 1992 to 430,000 in 2000

[USDOE EIA 1999b]. Over the same period, use of alternative fuels grew by 49 percent, to 341

million gallons in 1999. Still, this number is slight, less than 1 percent, compared with the 155

billion gallons of fuel consumed by 215 million motor vehicles on U.S. highways in 1998

[USDOT FWWA 1999a]. As a result of its continuing dependence on petroleum,
5-19

transportation’s share of U.S. petroleum use has risen from 51 percent in 1973 to 66 percent in

1998 [Davis 1999]. Moreover, the transportation sector demands a disproportionate share of

the lighter, higher value petroleum products that drive the market.

Within transportation, the highway mode dominates energy use, with an 82 percent share in

1997 (figure 5-20). Energy use by aircraft, the fastest growing component of transportation

energy use, comes next with an 8 percent share [USDOT BTS 1999].

Water transport accounts for five percent of transportation energy use, one percent of which is attributable

to recreational boating. Pipelines require four percent

of transportation energy, but nearly four-fifths of that

is natural gas used by natural gas pipeline pumps.

The remainder is electricity used by crude oil and

petroleum product pipeline pumps, but their 0.2

quads of electricity consumption makes them the

largest electricity-using mode. Finally, rail accounts

for 2 percent, of which more than 85 percent is for

freight movement [Davis 1999].

Energy-Efficiency Trends: The energy market

upheavals from 1973 to 1985 greatly slowed the

growth of transportation energy use in the highway,

air, and pipeline modes (table 5-4). As a consequence

of the oil embargo of 1973 to 1974 and related events,

oil prices more than doubled from $11.76 per barrel in

1973 to $23.56 in 1974. Oil supply shortages associated with the Iran-Iraq War and subsequent OPEC

supply restrictions caused oil prices to jump again,

from $24.48 in 1978 to $53.39 in 1981 (in 1992 dollars). Both oil-price shocks slowed the growth of

transportation activity and led to major energyefficiency improvements across all modes.

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy

Review 1999 (Washington, DC: 2000).

U.S. Transportation Energy Use: 1950-98 (Annual totals)

Figure 5-19

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation,

Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National

Transportation Statistics 1999, BTS99-04

(Washington, DC: 1999),

pp. 289-90.

Transportation Energy

Use by Mode: 1997

Figure 5-20

Other

Petroleum

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1950 1965

Quadrillion Btu

1980 19951998

Highway

82%

Air

8%

Rail

2%

Water

5%

Pipeline

3%
5-20

Most transportation modes responded to higher fuel prices and the conservation policies they

spawned by reducing the amount of energy required to carry a passenger or a ton of freight

(called energy intensity). From 1975 to 1997, the energy required for a passenger-mile of travel

by car fell more than 20 percent, from 4,700 to 3,700 Btu [USDOT BTS 1999]. During the same

period, the energy needed to transport a passenger one mile by commercial aircraft domestically decreased by more than 40 percent, from 7,500 to 4,100 Btu [USDOT BTS 1999]. The

energy intensity of Amtrak intercity rail travel also declined, from 2,380 Btu per passengermile in 1975 to 2,070 in 1990 [USDOT BTS 1999]. Energy intensities of urban bus transit

actually increased. The somewhat remarkable result was a convergence in the energy intensity of travel by most modes (figure 5-21). Intermodal comparisons are generally misleading,

however, because the modes perform different functions and serve different travel markets.

Since 1990, improvements in energy efficiencies have generally slowed or stopped, due to

falling energy prices and constant fuel economy standards.

Less is known about the energy intensiveness of freight transport. Rail freight energy use per

ton-mile has been declining consistently over the past 30 years, from roughly 840 Btu per tonmile in 1960 to about 370 Btu per ton-mile today [USDOT BTS 1999]. The data for domestic

waterborne commerce are more volatile for reasons that are not well understood, and it is

difficult to draw conclusions from them. Reliable data on heavy truck ton-miles do not exist,

but it is clear that energy use per vehicle-mile has decreased, albeit more slowly than for other

modes. Between 1970 and 1997, energy use per tractor-trailer truck-mile decreased at an

average annual rate of 0.8 percent [USDOT BTS 1999; USDOT FHWA 1999a]. This, combined

with a general increase in truck size and weight limits, suggests that truck energy use per tonmile has probably also decreased.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National

Transportation Statistics 1999, BTS99-04 (Washington, DC: 1999), pp. 291-292.

Table 5-4

1960

Air

Rail

Water

Pipeline*

Transit

Highway

1970 1980

293

480

701

358

55

5,261

1,155

14.7%

492

0.2%

753

0.7%

745

7.6%

70

-1.3%

11,707

8.3%

1,394

1.9%

551

1.2%

1,677

**

654

-1.3%

111

2.4%

14,657

2.3%

1997

1,965

0.7%

507

1.9%

1,230

- 0.9%

775

1.3%

122

0.9%

19,215

2.0%

1990

1,811

2.6%

445

-2.1%

1,396

-1.8%

680

0.4%

117

4.8%

16,692

1.3%

 *Pipelines include natural gas only. Crude oil pipeline energy use not shown

here.

**The source of water data changed between 1980 and 1990, making these

estimates non comparable.

Transportation Energy Use by Mode: 1960-97

(Trillions of Btu)
5-21

Oil Dependence: The U.S. economy’s dependence on petroleum is driven principally by the

transportation sector’s dependence on it. The risks of oil dependence was a major theme of

the 1977 National Transportation Trends and Choices report [USDOT 1977]. Not only is transportation nearly totally dependent on petroleum as an energy source, but it also is the largest and

fastest growing consumer of petroleum products. According to the Department of Energy,

transportation derives 97 percent of its energy from petroleum (figure 5-19), although this

includes a small percentage of nonpetroleum gasoline blending stocks such as ethanol

[USDOE EIA 1999a].

Transportation consumes 66 percent of the petroleum products supplied to the U.S. economy,

up from 55 percent in 1975. As a result of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s and the

deregulation of U.S. natural gas markets, oil use in residential and commercial buildings and

by utilities to generate electricity has fallen to about half of its 1975 level (figure 5-22). Industrial use of petroleum is up by 26 percent over 1975 consumption, but transportation oil use is

up 93 percent over the same period [USDOE EIA 1999a].

Note: 1975 Passenger bus data are not available.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation

Statistics 1999, BTS99-04 (Washington, DC: 1999), p. 309.

Changes in the Energy Intensiveness of U.S. Passenger Travel:

1975, 1990, and 1997

Figure 5-21

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1999, table 5.12,

available at www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/petrol.html, as of June 23, 2000.

Petroleum Use in the U.S. Economy: 1975-99 (Annual totals)

Figure 5-22

Btu/passenger-mile

Air

domestic

Air

international

Passenger

car

Light 

truck

Transit

bus

Amtrak

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1975

1990

1997

Utilities

Buildings

Industrial

Transportation

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

5

0

10

15

20

25

Millions of barrels per day
5-22

The continuing growth of petroleum use by transportation, combined with declining domestic

oil production, has resulted in increasing U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. In 1998,

for the first time in U.S. history, net imports exceeded 50 percent of U.S. petroleum supply

[USDOE EIA 2000]. In 1973, the year of the first OPEC-driven oil price shock, net imports to

the United States totaled 6 million barrels of oil per day (mmbd), while the United States

produced 11 mmbd. In 1999, domestic production was down to 7.8 mmbd, while net imports

were 9.6 mmbd [USDOE EIA 2000]. Still, today there is much less public concern over the

issue of petroleum imports than there was at the time of the 1977 Trends and Choices report.

More than a decade of lower oil prices, as low as $10 a barrel (bbl) during the winter of 1998-

1999, and abundant supplies during most of the 1990s may explain the apparent lack of

concern by U.S. citizens (figure 5-23). The realization that oil prices are unlikely to rise forever,

that what went up could also come down, and a strong economy also helps explain our

relative complacency in the face of the highest levels of oil imports on record, even in the face

of recent gasoline price increases. But, higher prices for petroleum products in 2000 have

raised the issue of oil dependency in the public consciousness, once again.

The costs of past oil dependence were real and

substantial, and the

doubling of world oil prices

between January 1999 and

January 2000 as a result of

production cutbacks by

Organization of Petroleum

Exporting Countries

(OPEC), with the cooperation of Mexico, Norway,

and Russia, suggest that oil

dependence may reemerge

as a serious concern for

transportation and the

economy in the not-toodistant future. Estimates of

the economic costs of past

oil price shocks and the

anticompetitive influence of

OPEC on world oil markets

are numbered in the

trillions of dollars, and

prospective analyses indicate that a single future shock could cost hundreds of billions of

dollars [Greene, Jones, & Leiby 1998]. When oil prices are suddenly increased by the exercise

of market power, oil consumers suffer three kinds of economic costs [Greene 1997]. First, an

energy price increase, whether due to geologic scarcity or cartel-created scarcity, signals to the

economy that less can be produced with the same amount of capital, labor, and materials. The

increased economic scarcity of a basic resource reduces the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) the

economy is able to produce when all resources are fully employed. Second, when prices

increase suddenly, the economy is unable to respond immediately to the changed price regime.

As a result, there is less than full employment of productive resources and a further, temporary

loss of GDP. The size of these economic losses will depend on the importance of oil in the

economy and its ability to substitute other energy sources for oil. The transportation sector

has so far shown little capacity to replace oil with alternative energy sources.

Finally, a cost to the U.S. economy (but not to the world economy) is the transfer of wealth from

oil consumers to oil producers, which is caused by the noncompetitive price increase. The

Note: Gasoline prices are for regular leaded (1970-75) and for regular unleaded (1976-99).

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, available at

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/petro.html, tables 5.19 and 5.22, as of June 23, 2000.

Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices: 1970-99 (Chained 1996 U.S. dollars)

(Annual totals)

Figure 5-23

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

1970

Per gallon

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Gasoline

Crude Oil
5-23

loss to the U.S. economy is equal to the price increase times the amount of oil imported. For

example, the recent OPEC-orchestrated price increase from approximately $10/bbl in the

winter of 1998/1999 to $25/bbl in the fall of 1999 increased U.S. wealth transfer by approximately $15/bbl. With imports exceeding 9.5 mmbd, the daily loss of wealth amounted to $142

million or over $50 billion on an annual basis. For comparison, total expenditures on the

nation’s highways by all levels of government are approximately $100 billion per year

[USDOT FHWA].

There are military, strategic, and geopolitical costs of oil dependence as well. Though these

components are less readily measured, their importance should not be underestimated. In

addition, inappropriate responses to oil price shocks can increase their cost. For example,

tightening money supply to curb the inflation caused by an oil price increase, rather than

accommodating it, can unnecessarily slow economic growth.

Global Trends: Around the world, the rates of growth of motorized transport and its energy

use exceed those in the United States. From 1973 to 1996, world transportation energy use (of

which petroleum comprises 96 percent) increased by 66 percent, from 950 million metric tons

(Mtoe) to 1,580 Mtoe [IEA 1999]. Over the same period, U.S. transportation energy use grew by

only 32 percent. Petroleum’s share of world transportation energy use also increased slightly,

from 94.7 percent to 96.0 percent. Globally, road transport accounts for more than 70 percent

of transportation energy use, and light duty vehicles are responsible for about 50 percent, very

similar to the U.S. statistics [IEA 1999].

The growth of world transportation energy use and its petroleum dependence is driven by the

long-term trend of increasing motorization of the world’s transportation system and the evergrowing demand for mobility. Just after World War II, the world’s motor vehicle fleet numbered 46 million vehicles, of which 75 percent were in the United States. In 1996, there were

671 million motor vehicles in the world, and the U.S. share was only 30 percent. Whereas the

U.S. motor vehicle population has been growing at 2.5 percent per year since 1970, the rest of

the world’s stock has been growing at nearly twice that rate to 4.8 percent per year [MVMA

1998].

Keys to the Future

Future Energy Requirements: Projections of future transportation energy requirements

foresee continually expanding energy needs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration

anticipates a 77 percent increase in total world transportation energy use over 1996 levels by

2020, an average annual rate of growth of 2.4 percent [USDOE EIA 1999d]. Continued petroleum dependence is expected as world motor vehicle stocks surpass 1.1 billion in 2020.

Vice President Al Gore has been instrumental in new initiatives to meet key energy challenges.

With his leadership through the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles and the 21st

Century Truck Initiative, businesses are developing innovative technologies that promise

dramatic increases in automotive fuel economy – reducing our reliance on imported oil while

saving consumers money. Pursuing the strategies of promoting clean energy alternatives and

reducing fuel use in the federal government vehicle fleet by 20 percent by 2005 will help ease

reliance on imported oil.

The World Energy Council has produced a series of scenario projections for future world

transportation energy use, with annual growth rates ranging from 0.9 percent to 2.2 percent,

implying 26 percent and 92 percent increases, respectively, in 2020 over 1990 [WEC 1993].

Passenger travel and associated energy use have been projected over a much longer period, to

2050, using the concepts of constant travel time and money budgets [Schafer & Victor 1999].

Their analysis foresees global passenger travel growing from 23 trillion passenger-kilometers
5-24

in 1990 to 105 trillion in 2050. Increasingly wealthy travelers are expected to shift to faster

modes of transportation.

All of these forecasts foresee ever increasing demands for energy by the world’s transportation

systems—systems that, today, are all but totally dependent on petroleum for energy. Experts

disagree over whether there will be adequate sources of low-cost, environmentally acceptable

energy for transportation well into the 21st century. But, few would disagree that continued

advances in the technologies of energy supply and transportation energy efficiency must be

achieved.

Available Energy Resources: Running out of energy is not a problem for transportation as it

enters the 21st century. The world’s hydrocarbon resources appear to be sufficient to last for a

century, but at a potentially high cost to environmental damage, potential climate change, and

vulnerability to the costs of oil market manipulation. Conventional oil reserves total about 1

trillion barrels, but reserves measure known amounts ready to be produced at prevailing

prices and are more a measure of the oil industry’s inventory than an estimate of the total

geologic resources.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) [Masters et al. 1994] puts the world’s ultimate resources of

conventional petroleum at 1.7 trillion barrels, enough to last 46 years at current consumption

rates, 33 years if oil consumption continues to grow at 2 percent per year (table 5-5). Some

geologists point out that it is unreasonable to expect a smooth drawdown of resources to the

last drop [Campbell & Laherrère 1998]. These analysts predict that when cumulative oil

production exceeds 50 percent of the world’s ultimate resources, oil production will decline.

There is general agreement that the 50 percent point will be passed during the first two

decades of the 21st century. If production does begin to decline, higher prices and greater

market power for OPEC producers can be anticipated.

Oil industry analysts

point out that, presently, only an average

of 34 percent of the oil

in the ground is

recovered and that

technological advances

have and likely will

continue to increase

recovery rates, perhaps

to 50 percent [Porter

1995]. This would

expand ultimate

resources of conventional oil to 2.8 trillion

barrels, enough to last

117 years at current

consumption rates, but

only 60 years if consumption continues growing at 2 percent per year (table 5-5). But conventional oil is not the

only resource from which transportation fuels can be made.

Venezuelan heavy oils are already beginning to be produced and processed into fuels as are

Canadian oil sands. The United States contains vast deposits of oil shale that, at a higher cost

and with greater environmental damage, can be made into gasoline or distillate fuel. If these

resources are considered usable, 137 years of growing world petroleum demand could be

accommodated. Moreover, natural gas can be converted into clean, low-emission distillate

fuel and even gasoline, but growing demand for natural gas by other users will have to be

outbid, or ways will have to be found to make use of the vast methane deposits in coal seams

and in the form of methane hydrates [USDOE 1998]. The USGS estimates that the United

World Petroleum Resources

Source: C.D. Masters, E.D. Attanasi, and D.H. Root. “World Petroleum Assessment and

Analysis,” Proceedings of the 14th World Petroleum Congress (New York, NY: John Wiley and

Sons, 1994).

Current

consumption

Consumption

growing 2%

annually

Cumulative quantity

(Trillion barrels)

Proven reserves

USGS identified reserves

Ultimate resources

Enhanced recovery 34% to 50%

Unconventional oil resources

Oil shale and tar sands

1

1.1

1.7

2.8

3.4

17.4

42

46

71

117

142

725

30

33

44

60

67

137

Years remaining

Resource

Current consumption rate of 0.024 trillion barrels per year.

Table 5-5
5-25

States’ gas hydrate resources alone range from 100 to 700 quadrillion cubic feet with a mean

estimate of 200 quadrillion, 20 times the optimistic estimate of remaining world reserves of

conventional gas, roughly equivalent in energy content to conventional petroleum reserves.

Technology and Policy Options: Transportation can improve its energy sustainability by

increasing the energy efficiency of transportation vehicles, developing the ability to use

cleaner alternative energy sources, reformulating existing fuels and developing improved

emissions control technologies for existing power plants, and increasing system efficiency.

The future holds enormous potential for both energy-efficiency improvements and alternative

fuels. As a result of industry and governmental research and development, transportation

technology has progressed substantially, especially for light-duty highway vehicles [Greene

DeCicco 2000]. The U.S. Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) has made

considerable progress toward its goal of tripling fuel economy while reducing pollutant

emissions and maintaining safety and all consumer amenities [NRC 1999].

Similar research and development efforts are underway in Europe and Japan. Japanese manufacturers have introduced lean-burn gasoline, direct-injection engines capable of improving

fuel economy on the order of 20 percent. In Europe, direct-injection, light-duty diesel engines,

which improve fuel economy 40 percent over modern gasoline engines, have captured nearly

half of the passenger car market. One European manufacturer offers such engines in the

United States. And, for the first time, an ultra-low emission hybrid vehicle is being offered for

sale in the United States in model year 2000, following the success of a hybrid passenger car

introduced in 1997 in Japan. The U.S. hybrid achieves 65 miles per gallon, making it the most

efficient passenger car in the United States. Pollution-free fuel cell vehicles seemed a remote

possibility just a decade ago. But rapid advances in power density, cost, and systems improvements have led to fully functional prototype fuel cell cars being demonstrated by major

manufacturers around the globe and promises of commercial models by 2005. The successes

of light-duty vehicle technology research and development suggest that other modes might

achieve similar advances. At present, promising technologies have been identified for heavy

trucks, aircraft, rail, and marine transport, but these receive far less attention, even though

their combined energy use accounts for 40 percent of transportation’s total.

Public policy will play a critical role in creating a sustainable transportation energy future;

technological progress may need policies to speed implementation in the short term. At

present, all of the advanced technologies mentioned above face one or more barriers to success

in the marketplace. In the case of direct-injection gasoline and diesel engines, the hurdle is

meeting ever tighter emissions standards. In the case of hybrid vehicles, cost reduction is the

key issue, and fuel cells still face a number of technical and economic challenges. In an environment of relatively low fuel prices, even with recent price increases and abundant supplies, consumers are, generally, more interested in acceleration and size of their vehicles and

less sensitive to fuel efficiency. If hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are to succeed, considerable effort

will be needed to create an efficient and safe transition to such a radically different energy

source. History suggests that different policies will work best for different modes and circumstances. Moreover, history also suggests technological and institutional evolution work best

in concert with market forces and when they reinforce other important societal goals.

Transportation will always require energy. Achieving sustainable energy for transportation

will require that pollutant emissions fall faster than traffic grows, that greenhouse gas emissions are controlled to acceptable levels, that dependence on oil is reduced, and that energy

resources for transportation expand faster than they are consumed.

Environment

The effects of transportation on the environment are complex and widespread. Air, water,

land use, and animal habitats, are just a few of the areas affected by transportation. Often,
5-26

these impacts are not fairly distributed—a fact that is taken into

consideration in many planning processes today (see box 5-4 on

environmental justice). But, we have come a long way in recognizing

and dealing with environmental impacts over the past 25 years, in

large part reflecting environmental laws enacted in the late 1960s

and early 1970s. These include the National Environmental Policy

Act (NEPA) of 1969—the basic charter for environmental protection—requiring an environmental impact statement for every major

federal government project; the creation of the U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 to oversee the nation’s efforts to

clean up the air and water; the Clean Air Act and the Resource

Recovery Act, both enacted in 1970; the Clean Water Act and the

Ocean Dumping Act, both of 1972; the Endangered Species Act of

1973; and the Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974.

This section outlines several problem areas with which we grappled

over the past 25 years, including air quality, global climate change, water quality, noise, solid

waste, and land-use and habitat.

Sustainability

As we enter the 21st century, it is apparent that we must not only consider the ramifications of

transportation for relatively short-term problems such as air and water quality; we must also

consider the relationships between our transportation systems and the degree to which natural

ecosystems and livable communities can be nurtured and sustained in the long term.

The most frequently cited definition of sustainability was adopted by the World Commission on

Environment and Development (known as the “ Brundtland Commission” ): “ A sustainable condition

for this planet is one in which there is stability for both social and physical systems, achieved

through meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to

meet their own needs.” This definition acknowledges that sustainability has social and community,

as well as physical dimensions, and is the most broadly accepted definition of “sustainability.”

Transportation systems produce environmental, economic, and social equity effects, characterized

as the “ Three Es.” Transportation systems can be considered sustainable to the extent that they

contribute, in the short- and long-term, to national goals, including reduced greenhouse gas

emissions, healthy ecosystems, enhanced biodiversity, reduced air and water pollution, reduced

dependence on finite fossil fuel supplies, and affordable access to economic and social opportunity.

Transportation decisions can be considered more or less sustainable in terms of how they produce

and balance these effects. The challenge for decisionmakers is to achieve an appropriate balance.

The USDOT is laying the foundation for this broad-based approach to sustainability as related to

transportation. The Department has formed a Center for Climate Change and Environmental

Forecasting, which is conducting research and development solutions that can address long-term

environmental problems while accomplishing other national transportation goals. The Center is the

USDOT’s focal point for technical expertise on transportation and climate change. One of its

primary goals is to develop compliance and multimodal approaches to reduce transportationrelated greenhouse gases. The USDOT also has launched Smart Growth initiatives focused on the

interaction between transportation investments and land use. These, and related initiatives, will

address both current and future challenges in enhancing and preserving communities and the

natural environment.

“In the new century,

innovations in science

and technology will be

the key not only to the

health of the environment, but to

miraculous improvements

in the quality of our lives

and advantages in the

economy”

President William J. Clinton

State of the Union Address

Jan. 27, 2000

Box 5-3
5-27

Environmental Justice

Community groups have raised concerns and challenges about the disparate impacts from and

inequities in transportation services, including environmental quality effects on minority populations

and low-income populations.

In 1994, President Clinton issued an executive order to address environmental justice. The order

directs each federal agency to “make achieving environmental justice part of its mission by identifying and addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects of its programs, policies, and activities on minority populations and low-income

populations.” The executive order and accompanying presidential memorandum emphasize that

agencies should use existing laws to achieve this goal.

The USDOT issued an order in 1997 that incorporates environmental justice principles throughout

its programs, policies, and activities. The order also sought to integrate the executive order’s goals

with the existing requirements of such laws as NEPA, Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and

the Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Properties Acquisition Policies Act.

Environmental justice principles must be considered during the transportation planning process.

Proposed new planning and environmental regulations will provide guidance on how states can

demonstrate consistency in environmental justice principles.

Air Quality

Over the past 25 years, the United States has made significant progress in reducing air

pollution. For highway vehicles, this success resulted primarily from improvements in

vehicle fuel systems, the use of catalytic converters to treat combustion products, and the

development of cleaner burning fuels. These changes have occurred because of a combination

of scientific and engineering innovations and regulations. Aircraft emissions also have been

reduced, largely through international standards.

Federal standards for light-duty vehicle emissions were put in place in the 1960s and have

become increasingly stringent over time, covering not only tailpipe emissions but also fuel

evaporation. Standards for heavy-duty highway vehicles were adopted in the 1970s; they, too,

have become more stringent over time. The EPA has proposed new emission standards for

heavy-duty vehicles to take effect in 2001 and diesel fuel requirements, lowering sulfur levels

from the current 500 parts per million (ppm) to 15 ppm by 2006. In the 1990 Clean Air Act

Amendments, the EPA’s responsibility for mobile source regulation was expanded to cover

“nonroad engines and vehicles,” including ships and locomotives.

Cold Starts

Motor vehicle exhaust emissions are controlled by catalytic converters. The catalyst requires heat to

reach the temperature at which it functions most efficiently; thus, there is a delay before it reaches

operating temperature. Since emissions during normal operation have been dramatically reduced,

now about 70 to 80 percent of the nonmethane hydrocarbons that escape conversion by the

catalysts are emitted during the first two minutes after a cold start. Several engineering techniques

are being developed to warm catalysts up more quickly so they can better control emissions. In the

absence of such technologies, many transportation specialists recommend strategies such as

reducing the number of trips or chaining trips to reduce cold starts. In 1998, eligibility under the

Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program was expanded to allow funding for

projects intended to reduce emissions from extreme cold-start conditions.

For the first time, the EPA published regulations this year in February 2000 covering both

vehicles and fuels as an integrated system under the “Tier II” standards. These standards

require a reduction in tailpipe emissions and lower sulfur content. The regulations specify

Box 5-4

Box 5-5
5-28

Box 5-6

acceptable ranges for some fuel qualities (e.g., volatility, sulfur content). And in areas of the

country with severe ozone problems, the EPA requires the use of reformulated gasoline to

reduce emissions.

For the six air contaminants known as criteria pollutants, EPA establishes air quality standards based on maximum acceptable atmospheric concentrations. The six contaminants are:

1. carbon monoxide (CO),

2. sulfur dioxide (SO2

),

3. lead (Pb),

4. nitrogen dioxide (NO2),

5. ozone (O3), and

6. particulate matter less than 10 microns (PM10).

States that fail to meet the standards must develop State Implementation Plans (SIPs) specifying how they will reach these standards. These SIPs must also contain enforceable requirements to keep emissions within necessary levels.

Since 1990, regulatory developments have been complemented by significant changes in

transportation planning. These changes have occurred because of provisions in the 1990

Clean Air Act Amendments and the 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act

Air Quality and Transportation Planning

In many areas, transportation planning is subjected to the conformity process. Transportation

emissions must remain within levels projected by State Implementation Plans (SIPs) that, when

implemented, will lead to attainment of air quality standards. Transportation plans and programs,

therefore, must “ conform” with air quality goals. This process is the result of more than three

decades of legal and regulatory evolution. The current Transportation Conformity regulation was

adopted in 1993 and amended in 1997.

The enaction of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in 1969 established a framework for

collaboration between federal agencies and those who will bear the environmental, social, and

economic impacts of agency decisions. NEPA further established a requirement that decisions

about development projects, such as highway and airport construction, be informed by analyses of

environmental impacts. Although this law established procedures for such analyses, it provided

little guidance about how project decisions should be made. It also had a project-specific focus that

did not necessarily lead to consideration of the integrated impact of multiple projects in a region.

Amendments to the Clean Air Act in 1977 added a requirement prohibiting metropolitan planning

organizations from adopting plans that did not conform to an approved SIP and authorized the

USDOT to withhold federal highway funding in cases of nonconformity. Guidance from the

USDOT and the EPA required the timely implementation of any transportation control measures

included in a SIP. Clean Air Act Amendments in 1990 provided more specific requirements for

conformity determination. The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 solidified

the connection between conforming requirements and the use of transportation funding.

Subsequent regulations and legislation have further defined these requirements and made them

more flexible. However, the underlying philosophy that transportation plans and programs must

conform to air quality plans has not changed.

(ISTEA), which was subsequently updated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st

century (TEA-21) in 1998. ISTEA and TEA-21 also allow a portion of fuel tax revenues to be

used to fund public transit systems and other specific projects to reduce congestion and

improve air quality.
5-29

Despite dramatic reductions in air emissions by mobile sources and measurable improvements in the nation’s air quality, some areas do not meet the standards set by the EPA for the

six criteria pollutants. These nonattainment areas, as of 1998, are shown in figure 5-24. At

that time, 113 million people were affected by the air quality in these areas.

Historical trends vary for criteria air pollutants emitted by transportation. For example, lead

has been virtually eliminated since the late 1980s, while nitrogen oxide (NOx

) has generally

increased since the late 1980s.

By banning the use of lead in gasoline, the United States has virtually eliminated transportation sector emissions of lead (see figure 5-25) [USEPA 1998]. As a result of this ban and other

lead control measures, such as restrictions on the use of lead in paint, lead levels in children’s

blood are down more than 80 percent from levels experienced in the late 1970s [Jacobs 1999].

In a period during which vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) rose considerably, emissions of volatile

organic compounds (VOCs) and carbon monoxide (CO) have declined since the mid-1970s.

However, emissions of NOx

 have not declined (see figure 5-26). NOx and VOCs contribute to

the formation of ground-level ozone (i.e., smog), which causes pulmonary health problems.

Ozone and NOx also damage aquatic ecosystems, forests, and agricultural crops. CO contributes to cardiac health problems. These data reflect national emissions. Emissions in many

areas of the country have fallen further and faster in response to the implementation of

regional strategies such as vehicle inspection and maintenance and clean fuel programs.

Emissions of particulate matter smaller than 10 microns (PM10) can contribute to pulmonary

health problems (figure 5-27). Much of the improvement over the years is attributable to

improvements in diesel engine technology and diesel fuel quality.

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, National Air

Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Nonattainment Areas for Criteria Pollutants: 1998

Figure 5-24

Ozone

CO

Lead

SO2

PM10

Circle diameter indicates 

the relative sizes of the 

populations affected.
5-30

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Air Quality Planning and Standards, National Air

Pollution Emission Trends, 1900-1998, EPA 454/R-00-002 (Washington, DC: 2000), available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/

trends98/trends98.pdf, as of June 28, 2000.

Lead Emissions from Transportation: 1975-98 (Annual totals)

Figure 5-25

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Air Quality Planning and Standards, National Air

Pollution Emission Trends, 1900-1998, EPA 454/R-00-002 (Washington, DC: 2000), available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/

trends98/trends98.pdf, as of June 28, 2000.

VOCs, NOX, and CO Emissions from Transportation: 1975-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 5-26 Index, 1975=1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998

Index, 1975=1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 19971998

NOx

VOCs

CO
5-31

Box 5-7

Reductions in emissions from the transportation sector, as well as from other sectors (in particular, electric utilities), have resulted in improvements in measured urban air quality from

1988 to 1997. Although directly comparable air quality measurements from the 1970s are

scarce, emissions trends suggest that improvements from the late 1980s to the late 1990s

represent a continuation of air quality improvements [USEPA 2000b].

In 1997, EPA tightened the standards for ozone and particulate matter. A court decision has

prevented EPA from implementing the tighter ozone standard; however, the agency has

appealed the decision. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case in the 2000-2001

timeframe.

Transportation Demand Management and Air Quality

Transportation Demand Management (TDM) is a strategy used to reduce travel on the nation’s

roadway system in large urban areas that have both high levels of traffic congestion and poor air

quality. The strategies typically include carpooling, transit use, pedestrian, and cyclist programs.

TDM is not a new concept, having been first used during World War II to reduce civilian fuel

consumption and, again, during the energy crisis of the 1970s.

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 included a reduction of auto emissions through the

promotion of ridesharing and public transit. Large metropolitan areas submitted transportation

control plans that included regulatory measures, including driving reductions.

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Air Quality Planning and Standards, National Air

Pollution Emission Trends, 1900-1998, EPA 454/R-00-002 (Washington, DC: 2000), available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/

trends98/trends98.pdf, as of June 28, 2000

Particulate Emissions: 1975-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 5-27

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1975

Index, 1975=1.0

1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998

PM10

PM2.5
5-32

Transportation Demand Management and Air Quality

The 1974 Emergency Highway Energy Conservation Act authorized the creation of regional

rideshare programs, high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, and park-and-ride lots. The Federal

Energy Act, also passed in 1974, provided corporate tax incentives for the purchase of ridesharing vans. The 1992 Comprehensive Energy Policy Act added more incentives through the

Commuter Choice incentive program. This program was expanded in 1999 to include a pretax

option that employers could offer as an incentive to transit and ridesharing employees. The federal

government as an employer has spearheaded attempts to encourage telecommuting, transit use,

and alternative work schedule arrangements. For instance, on October 1, 2000, by executive

order, all federal employees in the National Capital region became eligible for up to $65 per

month in transit benefits.

Mandatory programs requiring businesses to reduce their employees’ commuting trips began to

spring up in the mid-1980s. These programs were included in the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments as a mandated measure for areas with the worst pollution and as an optional measure for

those with less serious problems. These mandates were changed to voluntary options under

legislation passed in 1995. Some metropolitan areas, such as Washington, D.C., now include

voluntary trip reduction programs in their transportation and air quality planning processes. Trip

reduction has been part of the debate surrounding urban sprawl; sustainability; and, lately, the

push for “ livable communities.”

Bicycle and Pedestrian Alternatives

Although bicycling and walking are two of the oldest forms of transportation, their role in the U.S.

transportation system has changed significantly over the last 25 years. In the late 1970s, both

were recognized as energy-efficient modes that could be used for shorter trips or in combination

with other modes, such as mass transit, for longer trips. Given that a large part of harmful

emissions are released within the first two minutes of starting cars, walking and bicycling on short

trips were increasingly recognized as good for air quality. However, these transportation modes

were sometimes overlooked when projects and programs were planned and implemented.

This began to change in the 1990s as a result of federal legislation such as ISTEA and TEA-21.

Pedestrian and bicycle projects and programs must now be part of the planning process at the state

and Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) levels. Increasingly, states have allocated additional funding for such projects.

The USDOT is supporting these forms of transportation by expanding funding and setting goals to

increase their use and to make them safer. Goals call for doubling the percentage of trips made by

bicycling and walking and for reducing the number of injuries and fatalities attributed to these

activities by 10 percent.

Keys to the Future

Nitrogen oxide and unburned hydrocarbon emissions are projected to

continue declining in response to more stringent regulations related to

fuel quality and vehicle emissions, although an upturn, in response to

increased travel, is still possible over the longer term.

Beyond 2010, further reductions in particulate matter might be available through more stringent emission standards and/or more stringent

fuel-quality requirements. The groundwork has been laid so in the

future, emissions of some hazardous air pollutants should decline significantly as fuel quality improves. The same types of changes that

have enabled air-quality improvements, cleaner vehicles and fuels, and

“There’s no doubt that

clean-fuel vehicles are

coming to the mass

market. The billion

dollar question is which

one or ones will get there

first and when?”

Mortimer Downey

Deputy Secretary of Transportation

Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Oct. 5, 1999

Box 5-8

Box 5-7 continued
5-33

cleaner industrial and electrical generation facilities likely will

continue in response to technological improvements and ongoing

regulation.

Through the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV),

government and industry are collaborating on developing prototype

passenger vehicles that would achieve up to a tripling in fuel

economy without increasing life-cycle cost and without compromising

safety, performance, or convenience. Lightweight structural materials,

hybrid electric power trains, and hydrogen fuel cells show promise

toward meeting this goal. Such technologies also can significantly

improve the efficiency of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, a goal the

federal government is pursuing through the Advanced Vehicle

Technologies Program (AVP) and other incentives. AVP goals include

tripling the fuel economy of transit buses and doubling that of freight

trucks (see discussion in Chapter 6 Technology). If manufacturers are

ultimately successful in marketing vehicles that meet AVP and PNGV

goals, the long-term growth of emissions could be reduced

significantly.

Air quality in the year 2025 will almost certainly be better than it is today. These improvements will probably be achieved in all sectors, but perhaps most significantly from mobile

sources where the benefits of some regulations like those on heavy duty trucks and small

engines are just starting to be realized. The improvements will be driven by the continuing

importance the American people place on a healthy environment, which will result in increasingly stringent governmental and private sector attention to air quality. New technologies

and fuels will be the mechanisms by which air quality gains are made. Electric hybrid

vehicles, fuel cell engines, and new fuels—from reformulated petroleum products and entirely

new sources like biomass—will be commonplace through widespread commercialization and

“green marketing.” Interestingly, these improvements will come despite ever increasing

demand for travel. All travel modes will experience this increased demand as wealth, leisure

time, and market globalization expand, but none so much as aviation. Yet despite these

increases, extremely low and even zero-emitting engine-fuel combinations will represent a

large part of what is now the complete set of internal combustion engines. Americans will

have cost- and convenience-competitive choices in every class of engine. Such innovations

will continue to be developed and introduced into the marketplace, completely offsetting any

increases in emissions due to the volume of travel.

In the coming decades, the Marine Transportation System will provide environmentally

sound transportation of people and goods, which can relieve congestion in other transportation modes, thereby reducing some unintended environmental impacts, including air pollution. Ferries increasingly will provide an environmentally sound alternative. The ferry

system in New York and Washington State, for example, will continue to provide significant

commuter links. The Puget Sound ferries, which today carry 23 million passengers per year,

and the Alaska ferries will remain vital transportation links to homes and businesses.

Global Climate Change

In the last quarter century, the scientific evidence of human impacts on global climate patterns

has mounted. It is now commonly recognized that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere could cause increased average global temperatures; higher average sea levels that

inundate some wetlands and low-lying coastal areas; more intense droughts, storms, and

floods; extended growing seasons; and an expansion in the geographic range of insect-borne

“The key (to reducing

green-house gases) will

be reducing the carbon

intensity of our transportation sector, which

can be done in three

ways: by encouraging

more efficient travel

practices, by making

transportation more fuel

efficient, and by adopting fuels that will emit

less carbon.”

Mortimer Downey

Deputy Secretary of Transportation

Washington, D.C.

Dec. 9, 1998
5-34

diseases such as malaria. Moreover, the emissions that contribute to

the greenhouse effect remain in the atmosphere for much longer

periods than do emissions affecting air quality. Most of the CO2

released in 2000 through fossil fuel combustion will still be in the

atmosphere at the beginning of the 22nd century.

Carbon dioxide is the dominant greenhouse gas emitted by transportation. It is produced in approximate proportion to the amount

of petroleum used, and its production can only be reduced by

burning less fossil fuel (i.e., through energy efficiency or use of

alternative fuels). Transportation sources account for about 26 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, and transportation sector greenhouse gas emis-sions have increased by nearly 40 percent since

1975, in parallel with increases in transportation sector energy

consumption (figure 5-28) [USDOE EIA 1999e]. Contributing factors

include growth in travel; a significant market shift away from

automobiles and toward trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs);

and petroleum prices during the 1990s that, adjusted for inflation,

were much lower than past levels.

Greenhouse gas emissions from private vehicles (cars and light trucks) increased by about

12 percent from 1990 to 1997 and accounted for about 70 percent of that period’s overall

growth in transportation greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from other trucks and buses

grew much faster—21 percent over the same period—accounting for most of the remaining

overall growth. About 95 percent of these emissions were from medium- and heavy-duty

trucks.

“Just last week, automakers unveiled cars that

get 70 to 80 miles a gallon, the fruits of a unique

research partnership

between government and

industry. And, before you

know it, efficient production of biofuels will give

us the equivalent of

hundreds of miles from a

gallon of gasoline.”

President William J. Clinton

State of the Union Address

Jan. 27, 2000

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United

States, 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End-Use Sector: 1975-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 5-28

0

100

Million metric tons of carbon 200

300

400

500

600

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998

Industrial

Transportation

Residential

Commercial
5-35

Because transportation greenhouse gas emissions are the direct result of fuel combustion, the

nation’s transportation-related energy trends and policies have had a major impact on the

direction of levels of greenhouse gas emissions. A key energy policy step was passage of the

Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, which mandated Corporate Average Fuel

Economy (CAFE) standards for each new car fleet. As a result, the average fuel economy of

automobiles and light trucks increased by 54 percent and 63 percent, respectively, between

1975 and 1998 (figure 5-29). These measures were not adopted in response to climate change,

but they have reduced the growth rate of CO2

 emissions. However, in the last few years, the

growth in energy efficiency of automobiles and light trucks has slowed.

As scientific recognition of the climate change problem grew in the

1980s, the public in the United States and elsewhere became increasingly interested in finding solutions. In 1992, the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was negotiated

in Rio de Janeiro to establish a framework for a global response to this

problem. The ultimate pur-pose of the Convention is to stabilize

atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations “at a level that would

prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

A prominent feature was the nonbinding aim of returning to 1990

greenhouse gas emission levels by the year 2000 in developed countries.

The United States was one of 184 (as of May 2000) countries that ratified

the Rio accords; we did this in 1992.

The overall growth in transportation greenhouse gas emissions is

indicative of the significant difficulties the United States, like many

other developed countries, has experienced in making progress toward

the voluntary goal under the Rio accords. Instead, transportation sector

greenhouse gas emissions have grown since 1992 and are projected to

grow significantly over the next 20 years.

In October 1997, President Clinton set out his goals for both international negotiations and domestic actions and proposed a shift from

nonbinding aims to binding targets. He identified the nation’s six

climate change principles:

Note: This figure shows results for the entire fleet of operating vehicles, not just

new ones. It is derived from estimates of vehicle travel and total fuel consumed.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,

Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual issues).

Average Fuel Economy of Highway Vehicles: 1975-98

Figure 5-29

Automobiles

Light trucks, 

including vans, 

SUVs, and 

pickups

Large 2-axle 

trucks with 6 

or more tires

0

5

10

15

20

25

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998

Miles per gallon

Buses

Combination

trucks

“The Kyoto Agreement is

based on the simple idea

that it will not be

government bureaucrats

or regulators, but free

markets and free minds

that will be our best bet

to win the battle against

global warming, while

lifting the lives and the

hopes of citizens around

the world ... I believe the

American people can

meet the challenge of

global warming and end

up with a better and

stronger economy in the

process.”

Vice President Al Gore

Dec. 11, 1997
5-36

1. policies should be guided by science;

2. policies should rely on market-based, common-sense tools;

3. win-win solutions should be sought;

4. global participation is essential;

5. the United States will not adopt binding obligations without developing country

participation; and

6. policies should be informed by common-sense economic reviews conducted every

5 years.

In December 1997, the third Conference of the Parties under the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto

Protocol, which has as its central feature a set of binding emission targets for developed

nations. The specific limits vary from country to country, although those for the key industrial

countries of the European Union, Japan, and the United States are similar: eight percent

below 1990 levels for the European Union, seven percent for the United States, and six percent

for Japan.

The Protocol allows nations with targets to save money by

meeting those targets as blocs, rather than on a country-bycountry basis. The emissions targets are to be reached over

five-year budget periods, the first of which will be 2008 to

2012. The emissions targets include six major greenhouse

gases, and they may be offset through activities that absorb

carbon, such as forestation.

Because climate change is a global problem, the Protocol

provides flexibility in meeting emission reduction targets.

It allows for emission trading so countries can purchase

less expensive emission permits from countries that might reduce their emissions more easily.

The Protocol addresses greenhouse gases from international aviation and marine transportation by requiring nations to work through the International Civil Aviation Organization and

the International Maritime Organization.

In the United States, the Protocol becomes binding only with a two-thirds majority vote of the

Senate. In addition, it will not enter into force until it is ratified by at least 55 countries,

collectively accounting for 55 percent of developed countries’ 1990 emissions. The ClintonGore Administration’s proposed strategy for complying with a binding cap on domestic

emissions in the Kyoto Protocol emphasizes reliance on domestic and

international emissions trading. The United States signed the Kyoto

Protocol, but the Clinton Administration stated it will not submit the

Protocol to the U.S. Senate for its advice and consent until there is

meaningful participation by developing countries.

Keys to the Future

An important way to limit future transportation greenhouse gas

emissions is to increase reliance on fuels made from renewable

resources. For example, Argonne National Laboratory has estimated

that it is possible to achieve emission reductions of up to 25 percent

by switching to corn-based ethanol fuels now; and, with wider use, a

reduction of about 30 percent might be possible by 2005 [Wang et al.

1999]. However, because of issues such as cost and land availability,

ethanol appears unlikely to displace more than 10 percent of gasoline

consumption in the near future.

“We have a chance to

completely rewrite the

transportation future of

America, to dramatically

reduce the one-third of

our greenhouse gases that

come out of transportation, and do it without

some crippling regulation

or some astronomical

tax.”

President William J. Clinton

U.S. Conference Of Mayors

Breakfast Reception

Jan. 28, 2000

Greenhouse Gases

Governed by the Kyoto Protocol

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)

Box 5-9
5-37

Other fuels show less promise at this time. Natural gas may provide modest greenhouse gas

benefits, relative to gasoline, but can actually increase overall greenhouse gas emissions,

relative to diesel fuel. When produced from renewable resources, hydrogen and electricity

have the potential to virtually eliminate greenhouse gas emissions when they can be substituted for gasoline. However, the infrastructure does not exist to produce, distribute, or deliver

hydrogen fuel on a widespread basis. Electric vehicles also are limited by infrastructure; and

without breakthroughs in battery performance and cost, pure electric vehicles appear unlikely

to significantly penetrate the market.

Although policies, such as purchasing requirements and tax incentives, have successfully

increased the number of alternatively fueled vehicles and the use of alternative fuels, the

transportation sector is still 95 percent dependent on petroleum. Moreover, despite the

promise of these technologies and fuels, the cost and the pace of fleet turnover could limit their

impact in the next 20 years. Five national energy laboratories recently projected that under

favorable conditions, the combined effect of advanced vehicle technologies and alternative

fuels could reduce transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 by 25 percent

relative to “business as usual” [ORNL et al. 1997]. This same analysis also projected that

growth during that time could offset much of these reductions so that net emissions could

remain at 1997 levels.

In the 1990s, domestic electric utilities gained considerable experience with emissions trading

through the Clean Air Act sulfur dioxide permit-trading program. It is not yet clear whether or

how the transportation sector might participate in an emissions trading program, although

general concepts have been outlined; the USDOT’s Center for Climate Changes and Environmental Forecasting is researching this issue.

Under one option, with energy-source-based emissions trading, refiners and refined product

importers could be required to hold permits covering the projected emissions of transportation

fuels sold by them for domestic use. Alternatively, under a manufacturer-based approach,

transportation vehicle manufacturers and importers could be required to hold permits covering the projected future emissions of vehicles offered for sale. There are important policy,

administrative, and technical differences among these and other potential approaches. Since

reducing the transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions may be difficult, emissions

trading among sectors and across countries might provide needed flexibility if a binding cap

on overall domestic emissions is adopted.

Water Quality

The major direct source of water contamination from the transportation sector comes from oil

and fuel leaks and spills, particularly from tankers, motor vehicles, and above- and belowground fuel storage tanks. Oil spills from tankers can have major impacts on nearby ecosystems, aquatic species, wildlife, and birds, but the extent and severity of environmental contamination vary greatly with the location and size of the spill. Even a small amount of

petroleum in the groundwater system can contaminate large quantities of water.

Runoff from roads, infrastructure construction, and the deterioration of discarded vehicles

also have an impact on surface and groundwater quality. The amount and magnitude of

highway runoff depend on traffic characteristics, maintenance activities, and climatic conditions, as well as the location of the road itself. For example, runoff from roads and parking

lots has a higher than normal concentration of toxic metals, suspended solids, and hydrocarbons, which alter the composition of surface and groundwater. In northern regions, the

application of road salts in winter is another concern. Increased sodium levels in water and

surrounding soils can damage vegetation.
5-38

Moreover, transportation infrastructure may cause changes in the local water table and

drainage patterns by increasing the share of rainwater that becomes runoff. This affects the

soil moisture content of the area, which, in turn, may alter vegetation and wildlife. The

construction of transportation facilities also may result in the destruction of wetlands.

Wetlands are areas that are neither fully terrestrial nor fully aquatic. They range from the vast

cypress swamps of the southern United States to shallow holes that retain water only a few

weeks of the year. Wetlands can provide critical habitat for migratory waterfowl, control

flooding, act as natural filters for drinking water, and provide recreation.

The largest threat to U.S. waterways remains petroleum in transport; of the 198 billion gallons

spilled since 1975, 75 percent of it spilled during transportation. Nevertheless, oil spilled into

U.S. waters in the 1990s has been much less than in the late 1970s and 1980s. From 1990

through 1998, the average annual amount of oil spilled was 2.6 million gallons, compared

with 9.5 million in the 1980s, and 16.0 million from 1975 through 1979 [USDOT BTS 1999].

The improper disposal of used motor oil is a widespread source of groundwater and surface

water contamination. According to EPA estimates, of the 714 million gallons of used motor oil

collected annually in the early 1990s, 161 million gallons (23 percent) were disposed improperly [USEPA 1994].

Groundwater contamination often is caused by leaks from underground storage tanks, such

as those found at local gasoline service stations, which have a history of leaking due to

corrosion, overflows, and spills. Most underground storage tanks are used by the transportation sector. In response to legislation, EPA set up the Underground Storage Tank (UST)

Program in the mid-1980s to remediate leaking tanks and establish regulations on leak

detection and tank standards. Data reported to EPA by states, as of September 1998, show that

the country has almost 900,000 active tanks, and that 1.2 million tanks have been closed and

more than 300,000 cleanups initiated since 1990. There are 168,000 known releases not yet

cleaned up [USEPA 1998].

Spills from aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) also are a source of groundwater contamination. ASTs at transportation facilities serve two primary functions: 1) to provide breakout

storage or overflow relief at small pumping stations, and/or 2) to provide short-term storage

at tank farms/distribution facilities. Spills from these facilities are often due to overfill, failure

of tank bottoms, improper disposal of tank-bottom contaminants, and leakage from piping

associated with tanks. A 1994 American Petroleum Institute (API) survey found improved

spill prevention and reduced incidents of environmentally unsound disposal practices at

refining, service station, and transportation facilities operated by API member companies [API

1994]. The survey did not yield information regarding incident frequencies or accidental

release volumes.

Runoff from streets, parking lots, and airports is another source of water and groundwater

contaminants. Motor vehicles are the primary source of pollutants, except during periods of

snow and ice when deicing chemicals and abrasives predominate. Pollutants derive from,

among others, tire and brake lining residue, gasoline, oil, grease, and hydraulic fluids. The

nature and extent of damage nationally from highway runoff is still being studied. Aircraft

deicing and ethylene or propylene glycol-based chemicals at airports are other sources of

runoff contaminants. The total amount of aircraft deicing fluid (ADF) released by U.S. airports

is uncertain and varies from year to year with weather, number of aircraft departures, and size

and type of aircraft. EPA estimates that the United States released a total of about 28 million

gallons of ADF per year to surface waters prior to 1990, when new practices for managing

stormwater were implemented. Current discharges to surface waters are estimated to be 21

million gallons of ADF, with another 2 million gallons being discharged to publicly owned

treatment works [USEPA 2000c].
5-39

The advent of increased environmental awareness and legislative action in the early 1970s

paved the way for the preservation of wetlands and water quality. The Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972 and The Clean Water Act of 1977 significantly strengthened federal

requirements. These laws clarified the intent of wetlands protection, strengthened the control

of pollutant discharges from point sources, and eventually led to a national program to protect

waters from pollutants introduced by stormwater runoff.

Additional Clean Water Act amendments in 1987 strengthened the stormwater program and

instituted new measures, giving rise to greater areawide or watershed-based management

approaches. Subsequent regulations were issued controlling the discharge of runoff from

temporary construction sites and, in larger municipal areas, stormwater in general.

Mitigation for water quality impacts has always been an eligible activity on newly proposed

transportation projects as part of the project development and the environmental review

process established with NEPA. ISTEA and TEA-21 provided for and expanded funding for

wetlands banking, environmental restoration, and pollution abatement. Environmental

restoration returns the habitat, ecosystem, or landscape to a state as close as possible to its

predisturbance condition and function. Since natural systems are diverse and dynamic, the

process of recreating or duplicating their natural, or presettlement, state is virtually impossible. Therefore, the goal of the restoration is to reestablish the basic structure and function

associated with recent predisturbance conditions. Pollution abatement includes the retrofit or

reconstruction of stormwater treatment systems. In essence, a proposed restoration project

will include analysis of the water quality impact from a previous highway project, in relation

to a watershed plan for the area, and correct any past deficiencies in a stormwater treatment

plan. These costs can be funded with federal highway dollars.

Since 1968, successive Presidents and Congresses have responded to the health and environmental threats posed by inadvertent releases of oil and hazardous substances by passing

several major pieces of legislation. The Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972 is the

principal federal statute protecting navigable waters and adjoining shorelines from pollution

caused by oil and hazardous substance releases. Regulations based on this act detail specific

requirements for pollution prevention and response measures. The EPA and U.S. Coast Guard

(USCG) implement these provisions. EPA implements the legislation through a variety of

regulations and programs, including the National Contingency Plan (NCP). The NCP (more

properly known as the National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan)

was first developed in 1968 in response to 37 million gallons of oil spilled off the coast of

England in 1967 from the Torrey Canyon oil tanker. To avoid the kinds of problems faced in

this incident, officials developed a coordinated approach to cope with future incidents in U.S.

waters. The 1968 plan provided the first comprehensive system of accident reporting and

spill containment and cleanup. The NCP also established a response headquarters, a

national reaction team, and regional reaction teams, which were precursors to the current

National Response Team and Regional Response Teams.

Over the years, Congress has broadened the scope of the NCP. The Plan was revised in 1973

to include a framework for responding to hazardous substance spills, as well as oil discharges. Following the passage of Superfund legislation in 1980, the NCP was again broadened to cover emergency removal actions at hazardous waste sites on land. The latest revisions to the NCP were passed in 1994 to reflect the oil spill provisions of the Oil Pollution Act

of 1990 (OPA-90), which was enacted largely in response to rising public concern following

the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska. OPA-90 required vessels and facilities that store and

transport oil in bulk to develop response plans that ensure they have the equipment and

manpower to respond to and mitigate a worst-case discharge. Additionally, it required the

EPA and the USCG to develop stronger Regional and Area Contingency Plans concentrating

on their area’s unique hazards and risks, including the planning for the potential use of
5-40

alternate response technologies including dispersants and in-situ burning. As the beginning

of a strong prevention initiative, OPA-90 enabled the USCG to initiate sweeping improvements

to prevention, preparedness, and response. Using risk analysis and partnerships throughout

the maritime community, over 42 regulatory projects were enacted. These changes have

substantially reduced the risk of a pollution incident and have ensured increased vigilance by

those transporting oil in our waterways.The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 also created the national Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, providing up to $1 billion per incident for compensation

if the spiller of the oil cannot be found or refuses to pay. In the latter case, the issue is settled

in the courts.

The USCG’s Port State Control (PSC) program ensures that foreign-flagged vessels calling at

U.S. ports comply with the comprehensive safety standards of the International Maritime

Organization. All foreign flag vessels have been subject to PSC exams to ensure that substandard vessels are identified and detained until safety deficiencies are corrected, thus reducing

the risk of vessel casualties that may result in oil spills. This successful program resulted in a

reduction of over 50 percent in the rate of such vessels discovered in U.S. ports between 1995

and 1999, and the downward trend is expected to continue as the quality of ships calling at

U.S. ports continues to improve.

Hazardous liquid pipelines incurred an average of 200 incidents per year between 1988 and

1997 resulting in an average of 2 deaths, 16 injuries, $34 million in damages, and a net loss of

85,000 barrels of liquid per year. Outside damage and external corrosion were the primary

cause of hazardous liquid pipeline incidents in 1997 [USDOT OPS 1998]. Natural gas

transmission and distribution operators reported a 1988 to 1997 average of 215 incidents per

year, resulting in 18 fatalities, 91 injuries, and $32 million in property damage. In 1997, the

primary cause of natural gas pipeline incidents was the same as for hazardous liquid pipelines—damage from outside forces. For transmission pipelines alone, internal corrosion

ranked second. At the conclusion of a 1996 liquid pipeline accident investigation, the

National Transportation Safety Board recommended in late 1998 that the USDOT Office of

Pipeline Safety make several changes to federal regulations to improve the pipeline industry’s

ability to prevent accidental releases caused by corrosion [USDOT OPS 1998]. In November

2000, the USDOT issued strong new requirements for large hazardous liquid pipeline operators to regularly inspect and promptly repair pipelines in populated and environmentally

sensitive areas and to take systematic steps to detect and prevent leaks. Also the USDOT is

taking steps to implement stronger pipeline safety standards, including improved enforcement, enhanced federal-state partnerships, increased public access to information, and more

innovative technology. Together, these actions will help ensure that our oil and gas pipeline

system is sound, our communities safe, and our environment protected.

Keys to the Future

Over the past 25 years, most water quality control efforts relied on broadly applied national

programs that reduced pollution from individual sources, such as discharges from sewage

treatment plants, industrial sites, and from polluted runoff. The result has been dramatic

improvements in water quality throughout the nation. Today, there is a growing recognition

that clean water strategies built on this foundation, but applied on a watershed scale, are the

keys to the future. By 2025, universal application of consolidated and coordinated water

resource management programs, coupled with dramatic advances in technology, will spell the

end of water pollution as we know it today. The watershed approach in managing water

resources and most other land-use issues will be applied uniformly throughout the nation.

Such management will be commonplace in federal, state, tribal, and local governments and in

private programs. There will be new collaborative efforts to restore watersheds that will

involve all stakeholders, including transportation entities. Nonpoint source pollutant
5-41

reduction programs will be highly successful in defining and treating water quality problems

originating from diffuse sources.

Technology will match these management programs. Treatment facilities will be

commonplace on highway facilities, such that no untreated roadway runoff having the

potential to impact water quality will enter receiving waters. An abundance of inexpensive,

yet highly effective, Best Management Practices will be available to highway designers to

incorporate into road drainage system reconstruction and retrofit projects. Sources of

pollution from roadways will also be controlled. The potential for water pollutant emissions

will be a factor in the design of new vehicle propulsion systems, tires, lubricants, and

structural components. Closed system lubrication will largely eliminate the oil and grease

now common on roadway surfaces. Finally, the effectiveness of response to transportationrelated water quality problems will dramatically improve. Spill response, crash clean-up, and

other emergency actions will move from its infancy today to become a highly perfected,

routine practice on future highways.

By 2025, many of today’s challenges facing the nation’s coastal-ocean interface will be a thing

of the past. A strong risk-based network of regulations and partnerships to prevent spills from

all sources coupled with an integrated planning and response capability from the local to the

national level is a key to the future.

Noise Pollution

The transportation industry generates considerable noise pollution, which is defined as an

intrusive, unwanted sound. Aircraft, trains, buses, automobiles, and other forms of

transportation produce noise pollution that can lower the quality of life. Noise can be irritating or distracting and can disrupt sleep, all of which can be harmful to health. At extreme

levels, or at high levels over a long period, noise can permanently harm hearing.

Sound is usually measured in decibels. The A-weighted scale, measuring the sound frequencies that humans can most easily hear, is the common reference point. As with the Richter

Scale, which measures earthquakes, the measurements of decibels are nonlinear; a 10-decibel

increase in sound on a scale of A-weighted decibels (dBA) represents a perceived doubling of

sound. A vacuum cleaner operating 10 feet away is audible at 70 to 75 dBA. Noise becomes

annoying at 65 dBA and painful at 128 dBA.

Noise is a purely local phenomenon, and its transmission is affected by both manmade

structures and natural terrain. Therefore, because national or even regional measurements are

nearly impossible, regulations are based on limiting the sources of noise pollution to safe

levels. The federal Noise Control Act of 1972 authorizes the EPA to regulate transportation

and other major sources of noise.

Selected vehicles are required to generate no more than certain levels of noise at prescribed

distances. For example, trucks manufactured after 1988 are supposed to generate no more

than 80 dBA. The limit for motorcycles varies from 70 to 80 dBA, depending on such factors

as the year of manufacture. Locomotives built after 1979 must meet standards ranging from

70 to 90 dBA, depending on whether they are moving or stationary. Railcars moving at

speeds above 45 miles per hour have a 93-dBA limit. Measurements are made 50 feet from the

centerline of travel (figure 5-30) [USDOT FHWA 1994].
5-42

Figure 5-30

Key: EPNdB = Effective Perceived Noise Level used to measure aircraft flyover noise during a specified 10-second interval.

Included maximum audible sound level. Measurement is not comparable to A-weighted decibel scale.

dBA = A-weighted decibels (see text definition).

dBA— L50 = The sound level (measured in A-weighted decibels) exceeded by no more than 50 percent of the sample

readings in the measurement time period. Peak sound level is not necessarily measured. Noise measured at a point 7.5

meters from highway vehicles and locomotives. Unless noted, highway vehicles are 1992 European models.

L = Landing noise over reference point 2,000 meters from runway threshold.

T = Takeoff noise over reference point 6,500 meters from start of takeoff roll.

Small jet = Commercial aircraft up to 100,000 lbs maximum takeoff weight.

Large jet = Up to 1,000,000 lbs maximum takeoff weight.

Stage 1 = Aircraft certified prior to 1969, before Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) noise regulations.

Stage 2 = Aircraft sound level needed to meet FAA 1969 noise regulations; now being phased out.

Stage 3 = Aircraft sound level needed to meet FAA’s more stringent 1975 noise regulations.

Sources: Aircraft noise. adapted from 14 Code of Federal Regulations, Part 36, appendix C; Highway and railroad noise: P.M.

Nelson, ed., Transportation Noise Reference Book (London, England: Butterworths, 1987) and T. Berge, Vehicle-Noise Emission

Limits: Influence on Traffic Noise Levels Past and Future, Noise Control Engineering Journal, vol. 42, no. 2, March– April 1994;

All other information adapted from Ann Arbor Science Publishers, Inc., Environmental Impact Data Book (Ann Arbor, MI:

1979).

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160 M14 rifle

Hand grenade (75 ft)

Pneumatic

hammer

Locomotive whistle

Chain saw

Chinook helicopter

Bench grinder

Lawnmower

Air compressor

Alarm clock

Vacuum

cleaner

Window 

air conditioner

Washing machine

Refrigerator

Whisper

Crickets 

in wilderness

Rustling leaves

Pain

threshold

Annoyance

70

85

90

95

105

110

115

80

75

100

Large jet— Stage 1 (L)

Large jet— Stage 2 (T&L)

Large jet— Stage 3 (L)

Large jet— Stage 3 (T)

Small jet— Stage 2 (T&L)

Small jet— Stage 3 (L)

Small jet— Stage 3 (T)

dBA— L EPNdB 50

Diesel locomotive

Electric locomotive

Heavy truck (1970)

Heavy truck (1992)

City bus

Motorcycle

Car

dBA

Transportation Noise Levels
5-43

A 1980s study estimated that 37 percent of Americans were exposed to noise levels exceeding

55 dBA from all sources; 10 percent were exposed to noise above 60 dBA; 7 percent were

exposed to noise above 65 dBA; 2 percent were above 70 dBA; and 0.4 percent were above

75 dBA [OECD 1988].

Highway Noise: Highway noise is the most common form of transportation-related sound.

The noise is produced by a combination of tires moving on pavement and the operation of

engines, exhaust, and other vehicle systems. Traffic volume, vehicle speed, and vehicle mix

are factors affecting the level of noise generated.

Highway noise can be mitigated through a variety of strategies, ranging from vehicle controls

to highway design and land-use planning. Vehicle controls include quieter engines, engine

sound enclosures, and improved mufflers. Proper vehicle maintenance, alone, can produce

sound reductions in the 5 to 10 dBA range, and many localities enforce requirements restricting vehicle operating sounds to acceptable levels. Local agencies also sometimes employ

various measures to prevent noise from affecting people, including limits on new development

near roads, mandatory soundproofing, and the erection of noise barriers.

Highway design also is an effective countermeasure. Studies can determine a new roadway’s

potential impact on nearby communities. If the projected noise exceeds acceptable levels,

alternative routes can be selected or other measures can be taken to construct the roadway in a

manner that minimizes noise.

Finally, noise barriers—solid obstructions that separate roads from residences and other

structures—can further reduce noise; reductions of 10 to 15 dBA are possible. Noise barriers

also screen the view of roadways and can serve as a safety measure. For these reasons, their

popularity as a solution to noise pollution

has grown (table 5-6).

Aviation Noise: Aircraft noise was a minor

problem during aviation’s first half-century,

but the advent of commercial jetliners in the

1960s made it a much more serious issue.

Although the noise from aircraft is not

dangerous except in unusual or extreme

circumstances, it can be disruptive to sleep

and conversations.

Amendments in 1968 to the Federal Aviation Act mandated standards and regulations for

aircraft noise. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) adopted its first regulations the

following year, establishing “Stage 2” standards for new turbojet and transport category

aircraft. However, even in 1974, it was estimated that about seven million people were

severely affected by aviation noise pollution. In 1976, the FAA required that existing planes be

retrofitted to meet the Stage 2 standard.

Ensuing regulations have evolved to cover virtually all aircraft. These regulations have

resulted in substantially lower noise levels for aircraft operating in the United States, as well

as for the affected population (figure 5-31). Today, the average aircraft generates perceived

loudness of about 25 dBA less than in the 1950s (a drop of about 80 percent in perceived

loudness). Perceived loudness is a scale developed in the 1950s to measure the loudness of a

jet aircraft by observers on the ground. The majority of these improvements resulted from the

introduction of high-bypass-ratio engine designs.

Stage 3 aircraft were made mandatory by the 1990 Aircraft Noise and Capacity Act, which

restricted noise levels to between 95 and 105 dBA (at a distance of 2,000 meters on landing

Highway Noise Barrier Construction: 1970-98

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway

Administration, Highway Traffic Noise Barrier Construction

Trends (Washington, DC: 2000).

Table 5-6

Linear length (km)

Cost (millions $1998)

1970-79 1980-89

281

134

925

656

1990-98

1,397

1,141
5-44

approach and 6,500 meters on takeoff). All large aircraft operating within the United States

had to meet Stage 3 requirements by the end of December 1999. This was accomplished,

giving the United States the quietest aviation fleet in the history of the country. Many older,

Stage 2 aircraft have been retrofitted with so called “hush kits” to bring them into regulatory

compliance.

In January 2001, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will meet to set international noise standards for the next several decades. This meeting will set the stage for future

FAA actions. The Clinton-Gore Administration believes that the best way to achieve such

noise reduction levels is to work through ICAO to establish a new Stage 4 standard and then

implement that standard.

Keys to the Future

Highway traffic noise reduction is a shared responsibility. Thus, the Federal Highway

Administration encourages state and local governments to practice compatible land-use

planning and control in the vicinity of highways. Source control or control of noise emissions

from the vehicles themselves is a joint responsibility of private industry and of federal, state,

and local governments and will be an ongoing activity in the future. Noise abatement measures also will be considered and implemented if determined to be both reasonable and

feasible. The construction of noise barriers will likely continue to be the most commonly used

method. Future research efforts will strive to produce more cost-effective solutions and

efficient allocation of resources to deal with the problems of highway traffic noise. Emphasis

is anticipated in the areas of traffic noise prediction and abatement analysis.

The Federal Railroad Administration regulates noise based on standards developed by the

Environmental Protection Agency. Operations in yards, particularly switching, is the primary

source of railroad noise. By 2025, railroad traffic is expected to increase by nearly 75 percent;

Sources: Exposure estimates: U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Office of Environment and Energy; Departures 1975-93: USDOT, FAA, Statistical Handbook of Aviation (Washington, DC: Annual issues); Departures

1994-95: USDOT, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Airport Activity Statistics of Certificated Air Carriers: Twelve Months Ending

December 31, 1995 (Washington, DC: 1996).

Estimated Population Exposed to Airport Noise Levels of DNL 65 dB or More: 1975-99

(Annual totals)

Figure 5-31

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Population exposed (millions)

Aircraft departures (millions)

Population exposed (millions)

Departures (millions)
5-45

and if we remain vigilant, we could stem the growth in railroad noise. As rail traffic increases

and more people are exposed to railroad noise, pressure may grow to impose a more stringent

train noise standard.

Because of the international nature of aviation, aircraft noise standards are established by the

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a specialized agency of the United Nations.

In 1991, ICAO’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection, while retaining noise

reduction at the source as the preferred option, agreed to pursue a “balanced approach” to

noise. This approach would consist of reducing aircraft noise, developing procedures to make

operations quieter, and land-use planning to minimize the number of homes and other

incompatible uses near airports. Currently, airspace redesigns and remediation measures,

such as land buyouts and residential insulation, play an important role in managing aircraft

noise in the United States. Moreover, the U.S. Department of Transportation is currently

working with NASA on developing even quieter airplanes, and is also working through the

ICAO to establish and implement a new standard—Stage 4.

Solid Waste

Transportation generates a good deal of solid waste that is either recycled or ends up in

landfills. Discarded vehicles and vehicle parts and abandoned infrastructure, such as

pavement from highways or rail line materials, are the major elements of transportationrelated solid waste. The maintenance of transportation infrastructure can also generate solid

waste, the most notable of which is disposal of silt and other material dredged from ports and

harbors.

Significant improvements have been made in dealing with these elements. Much of the

material generated by scrapping automobiles is currently recycled. In 1994, nearly threequarters of the 12.8 million tons of material generated from retired automobiles was recycled.

The remainder (3.5 million tons) was placed in landfills [USDOT BTS 1999]. Between 1990

and 1998, the number of scrap tires stockpiled, landfilled, and dumped annually declined

appreciably, while the annual number of scrap tires generated each year increased 10 percent.

The number of tires used as fuel increased nearly fivefold, reaching more than 110 million.

Nonfuel markets for processed and whole tires consumed 49 million scrap tires in 1998, three

times the 1990 level. Export of scrap tires has increased more modestly since 1990, from 12

million tires in 1990 to 15 million in 1998 [USEPA 1991; Scrap Tire Management Council

1999].

The railroad industry also reuses and recycles much of its old infrastructure. Almost all rails

removed from mainlines are reused on secondary lines, branch lines, or yard tracks. Other

track materials such as fasteners, tie plates, spikes, and anchors are reused when possible,

and components such as switch stands, joint bars, and switch plates are repaired and used or

sold to short lines that need lower cost products. Materials that are not reusable are sold to

brokers or directly to steel mills for recycling. Wooden ties are often repaired with a chemical

plugging agent to fill holes, and are then reused. Those that cannot be reused are sold as

landscape materials, parking bumpers, fence posts, and retaining walls or are sold to

powerplants. Only the worst ties are placed in landfills. Like wooden ties, treated timber

from bridges and other structures is either reused or disposed. Used concrete ties and most

plastic rail-tie components are placed in landfills. Fine materials removed from ship ballasts

that have been cleaned are occasionally reused on roads [Thompson & Morehead 1996].

Approximately 14 to 28 million cubic yards of contaminated material is dredged each year.

This is estimated to be about 5 to 10 percent of all dredged material [NRC 1997]. Uncontaminated dredged material can be used for beach nourishment, wetland creation, and as caps for
5-46

landfills, or it can be dumped in certain disposal sites in open waters. Contaminated material, on the other hand, may have to be treated to reduce its toxicity and managed using

unique methods, increasing the costs of navigational dredging. Contaminants include heavy

metals and other pollutants, such as dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs), that have

been discharged into water and air. Contributing sources are industrial facilities within ports

and upstream and nonpoint sources, such as transportation and agriculture. Contaminants

reduce or injure fish and wildlife populations. Improper disposal of contaminated material

can present costly environmental and human health risks.

Keys to the Future

Continued vigilance will be vital to reducing and reusing the many and varied types of solid

waste generated by the transportation sector. Pressure to reduce and reuse solid waste will

emanate from landfill capacity problems and NIMBY (“not in my back yard”) sentiments, but

also will be spurred on by technological innovations that reduce the amount of waste produced and which make recycling solid waste easier and more cost effective.

Land-Use and Habitat Effects of Transportation

The effects of transportation on land use and habitat include the impact of transportation on

wetlands, the introduction of invasive species into ecosystems by transportation, and transportation and land-use interactions.

Wetlands: Since the early 1800s, the United States has lost or converted more than half of the

wetlands that existed prior to European settlement. About 100 million acres of wetlands

remain in the contiguous 48 states. Some states, such as California, Indiana, and Iowa, have

lost more than 90 percent of their original wetlands. Much of this loss resulted from agriculture, urbanization, and infrastructure construction. In the 1960s and early 1970s, wetland

loss was estimated at approximately 450,000 acres per year, primarily due to agricultural

activities [USEPA 1996]. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture resource inventories,

the wetlands’ rate of loss has, subsequently, declined to approximately 100,000 acres per year,

not including those created or preserved through wetland restoration activities and programs,

and now amounts to less than 50,000 acres per year. ISTEA and TEA-21 provided expanded

funding for wetlands banking, which allows the mitigation of several or many projects at one

location by combining funds to establish and manage larger wetlands complexes. This

enhances wetlands functions and improves management while controlling costs.

Data on annual wetlands losses due to all

transportation projects are not available, but

those caused by federally funded highway

construction have been available since 1996.

Between 1,100 and 2,400 acres have been

converted or lost annually since then (table 5-7).

This represents less than 10 percent of the

estimated total national loss or conversion and

has been compensated at a rate of about 2.3 to 1,

exceeding USDOT’s performance standard of 1.5

to 1 [USDOT 1999]. In other words, wetlands are

being replaced at more than twice the rate of loss

in the federal-aid highway program.

Wetlands Loss and Replacement for

Federal-Aid Highways: 1996-99

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway

Administration, Connecting America: 1999 Report to the

Nation, available at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/

1999annual/, as of Sept. 25, 2000.

Table 5-7

Acres

impacted

1996

1997

1998

1999

Acres

replaced

Recovery

ratio Target

1,568

1,699

1,167

2,354

3,554

4,484

2,557

5,409

2.3:1

2.6:1

2.2:1

2.3:1

1.0:1

1.0:1

1.5:1

1.5:1
5-47

Invasive Species: Transportation influences water resources

not only as a result of physical infrastructure, but also as a

means by which species can be transferred between distinct

ecosystems. One example of this type of problem is the zebra

mussel. Zebra mussels are part of an environmental threat of

invasions by non-indigenous species brought on, in part, by

the increasing level of global commerce. Zebra mussels are

thumbnail-sized freshwater mollusks that arrived in the

United States through ship ballast water in 1986 and are

projected to cause $5 billion in economic disruption to the

Great Lakes region by the end of the year 2000. Since their

discovery in Lake St. Clair in 1988, zebra mussels have

spread throughout the Great Lakes; the Arkansas, Hudson,

Illinois, Mississippi, Mohawk, Ohio, St. Lawrence, and

Tennessee rivers; and other waters of southern Canada and

the eastern United States. They also have been intercepted on

boat trailers at four points in California.

The mussels attach themselves to various surfaces, such as rocks, aquatic weeds, and industrial and residential water intake pipes. They rapidly form large reefs, reducing or blocking

water flow through pipes used for municipal drinking water facilities, electric power generation, and industrial plants. By competing for the food and habitat of native species, the

mussels can alter local aquatic ecosystems. They have also affected navigation, fishing, and

the recreational use of beaches.

Earlier invaders, such as the lamprey and alewife, continue to affect Great Lakes fisheries.

New England waters, such as Long Island Sound, are being invaded by new species on the

average of one species every 36 months. The most common method of transport is via ballast

water in oceangoing ships; although the organisms also can travel between lakes and rivers

on boat hulls, on aquatic weeds caught in propellers, on boat trailers, and invisibly in bait

buckets in their larval form. Other aquatic examples of species that have invaded U.S. ecosystems include:

Asian clams, which filter the equivalent of the entire volume of northern San Francisco

Bay more than once per day, severely disrupting the food chain;

hydrilla, an aquatic plant that clogs waterways in 40 states and costs Florida $14

million per year to control; and

purple loosestrife, another aquatic plant that has invaded 40 states, where it displaces

native vegetation and disrupts ecosystems.

Urban Sprawl: Urban sprawl is a response to individual preferences and market signals.

However, it also is the primary cause of numerous social and environmental problems,

including the loss of farmland, forests, wetlands, and other natural habitats. Sprawl also is

costly for government because the resulting development usually is served by new roads and

single-occupant vehicles rather than more efficient transportation modes, such as mass

transit, bicycling, or walking.

Sprawl is a complex, multidimensional phenomenon, with no easy solutions. There is no

consensus about the severity and breadth of the problem because many of the contributing

factors, such as single-family homes on large lots, low industrial and commercial structures,

and abundant parking availability, are considered desirable.

 “In its path, sprawl consumes

thousands of acres of forests and

farmland, woodlands and wetlands. It requires government to

spend millions extra to build new

schools, streets, and water and

sewer lines. In its wake, sprawl

leaves boarded up houses; vacant

storefronts; closed businesses;

abandoned, and often

contaminated, industrial sites;

and traffic congestion, stretching

miles from urban centers.”

Maryland Governor

Parris N. Glendening

A New Smart Growth Culture for Maryland
5-48

Box 5-10

Moreover, the role of transportation is not always clear. Partly this is a “chicken and the egg”

question: does an extensive highway system lead to sprawl or do new highways handle the

congestion created by growth? Some metropolitan areas, such as Phoenix and Milwaukee,

have sprawled extensively without major highway systems. Others, such as Los Angeles,

have extensive highway networks but have experienced little additional sprawl in recent

years. Regardless, sprawl is inconsistent and does not occur across all metropolitan areas at

the same rate.

Characteristics of Sprawl

Unlimited outward extension

Low-density residential and commercial settlements

Leapfrog development

Fragmentation of powers over land use among many small localities

Dominance of transportation by private automotive vehicles

No centralized planning or control of land use

Widespread strip commercial development

Great fiscal disparities among localities

Segregation of types of land use in different zones

Primary reliance on the trickle-down or filtering process to provide housing to low-income

households.

Source: Adapted from remarks by Anthony Downs at the University of Minnesota, Center for Transportation Studies,

Transportation Research Conference, May 19, 1998, Minneapolis, MN.

The decentralization characteristic of urban sprawl is a phenomenon well entrenched in the American landscape. It was recognized as long ago as the 1920s. Researchers, at that time, identified

causes of sprawl that are still applicable today: high urban property values, traffic congestion, inability to secure ample space, lack

of choice locations, legal restrictions, and the desire to avoid urban

problems.

Keys to the Future

Wetlands: As the demand for wetlands mitigation increases, the

costs of mitigation are expected to increase, even allowing for the

increased efficiency of wetlands banking. Average mitigation costs

for wetlands are expected to exceed the $20,000 per acre of mitigation provided in the immediate future and continue to increase as

land values, performance demands, and technology costs increase.

The federal government also expects demands for compensatory

mitigation to increase as regulatory agencies perceive continued threats and risks to existing

wetlands and landscapes. This, combined with increases in the federal-aid highway program

under TEA-21, is expected to result in slightly greater losses of wetlands due to additional

construction, with even greater compensatory mitigation costs. The cost of compensatory

mitigation in the federal-aid program is expected to exceed $100 million annually by 2010 if

funding levels and construction programs continue at their current rate.

Invasive Species: The 1996 National Invasive Species Act is expected to help prevent contaminated ship ballast water from entering U.S. ports in the Great Lakes and across the

country. As of July 1999, ships operating outside of U.S. waters must report their ballast water

management practices to the USCG, which will enter the information into the National Ballast

Water Information Clearinghouse database. The database will aid the USCG in identifying

the patterns of ballast water management and delivery in U.S. waters. The USCG’s ballast

water program regulates discharges of ballast water in U.S. waters, while fostering the

research and development of new technologies and management procedures that will greatly

“Investing in important

mass transit projects...is

key to rebuilding our

cities and creating livable

communities...” For

hardworking Americans,

who live in our metropolitan areas, the payoff

is in a better quality of

life.”

Vice President Al Gore

Livable Communities Initiative

Press Release

Feb. 4, 2000
5-49

Box 5-12

Clinton-Gore Livable Communities Initiative

Haphazard development patterns, disinvestment in older communities, and a deteriorating quality

of life have led to concern about the livability of communities. Problems such as these, resulting

from existing development patterns, have led many states and localities to adopt growth management laws over the past few decades.

Recently, these concerns have led to the “smart growth” or “ livable communities” movement and

the Clinton-Gore Administration’s Livable Communities Initiative. The Livable Communities Initiative

is aimed at broadening choices available to communities and empowering them to sustain prosperity and expand economic opportunity by strengthening local and regional economies, reclaiming

brownfields, achieving a more favorable jobs-housing balance, and encouraging smart growth.

The initiative also seeks to enhance the quality of life by preserving open space; easing traffic

congestion; securing safe streets; enhancing air and water quality; and ensuring that families have

places and more time to walk, play, and relax with neighbors and friends. The initiative also hopes

to build a stronger sense of community by creating community-centered schools, preserving local

cultural heritage, and empowering individuals and communities with the information and tools they

need to create the communities they desire. A whole range of initiatives has been developed in a

variety of areas to accomplish this, including the Redevelopment of Abandoned Buildings Initiative,

Regional Crime-Data Sharing, Community Transportation Choices, Land Acquisition Grants, and

the Farmland Protection Program.

One way in which the U.S. Department of Transportation is supporting Livable Communities is by

encouraging participation in transportation projects that include the use and redevelopment of

contaminated “ brownfield” sites when appropriate.

reduce the risks posed by shipping. Since invasive species are broadly recognized as a global

problem requiring a global solution, there is a sense of optimism that the concerted efforts

underway today to find technological solutions will be rewarded with significant breakthroughs soon. If we remain vigilant, by 2025, we will have developed environmentally sound

methods to completely minimize the impacts of invasive species.

Urban Sprawl: Although urban sprawl is attributable to a series of factors, many have little

relationship to transportation. Moreover, many of the factors contributing to sprawl are

viewed as desirable by the public and, therefore, cannot be readily altered. However, factors

such as home ownership and decreasing household size will change naturally over time, and

their effects on sprawl will wane. It is likely that in the near future urban sprawl will be more

a function of population growth; it is even conceivable that lower labor force participation

rates, increasing household size, lower home ownership rates, and smaller lot sizes will

contribute to more compact cities in the future. These offer promise toward declining rates of

sprawl and need to be coordinated with new transportation initiatives to produce livable

cities.

Environmental Streamlining

Environmental streamlining refers to a new way of doing business to achieve both the timely

completion of transportation projects and environmental protection. Enacted into law for highway

and transit projects with the passage of TEA-21, environmental streamlining consists of cooperatively establishing and adhering to realistic project development schedules among government

transportation and environmental agencies.

Because major transportation projects are affected by dozens of federal, state, and local environmental requirements administered by a multitude of agencies, such cooperation ensures that

projects meet environmental standards without delay. Strategies include pilot efforts, process reinvention, alternative dispute resolution, and a focus on performance evaluation. Experience in

implementing environmental streamlining may point to the need for revisions to transportation or

environmental laws or regulations.

Box 5-11
5-50

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5-53

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Technology

chapter 6

“Just as in the 19th Century, when catalogs opened up retail , when catalogs opened up retail

markets and the railroads [transportation] made it happen, in the

21st Century, e-commerce will expand markets and again transporta- , e-commerce will expand markets and again transportation will make it happen.”

Ted Prince

Journal of Commerce

2025 Visioning Session, Atlanta, GA

“Technology will not reduce the need for travel, but change its

nature and purpose and allow us to meet higher customer demands.”

William W. Millar, President

American Public Transportation Association

2025 Visioning Session, Saint Louis, Missouri, June 13, 2000

“The PNGV showed us that partnerships work. We need to have

more public-private partnerships on fuels, vehicle design, road

design, mobility, transit, and intermodalism.”

Curt Magleby

Ford Motor Co.

2025 Visioning Session, Mar. 29, 2000

6-1

Dramatic developments in advanced technologies have been the single greatest factor

influencing changes in transportation during the past 25 years. In 1975, most of America’s

transportation infrastructure rested on technologies that were, in some cases, almost a century

old. Since then, technology has quietly and thoroughly transformed the nation’s transportation systems. We have harnessed the awesome power of technology to improve the safety,

capacity, and efficiency of our transportation system. While vehicles and their guideways

might appear relatively unchanged, internal changes are occurring rapidly. For example, in

personal vehicles, microchips regulate engines; new technologies control the braking systems;

and electronic tuning ensures cleaner engine burn. Additionally, vehicle components,

materials, and systems are safer than they were 10 years ago. Flame-retardant materials have

replaced flammable padding in cars, buses, trains, and airplanes; and a new generation of

reinforced plastics has replaced conventional structural materials. Communication,

information, and Global Positioning System (GPS)-based navigation are enabling efficient and

safer travel. In aviation, aircrafts continue to become quieter,

more efficient, and environmentally friendly; and tracking

systems have revolutionized the freight industry.

As infrastructure nears capacity, particularly in our urban areas,

technology is helping to support continuing and growing

demands. Advances in technologies for all modes—highways,

transit, rail, air, maritime, and pipelines—promise to make our

transportation system safer, more efficient, and environmentally

friendly. Some of these technologies are described below.

New information and communications systems have already

transformed planning, design, development, maintenance,

management, and control of our nation’s transportation

system. On our highways, video-monitored intersections

and synchronized traffic lights are improving safety,

capacity, and efficiency of urban and corridor travel. Positive

Train Control systems have a similar potential to reduce

collisions and improve efficiency by using the satellite-based GPS to monitor rail traffic.

Travelers with computer terminals can conduct instant travel planning, reservations,

ticketing, and rerouting through Internet connections for many kinds of trips and travel.

Electronic tagging technology is used for diverse applications, such as automated toll

collection on turnpikes and the automatic identification of freight train contents.

Advanced material and structural technologies have led to new, environmentally safe,

and corrosion-resistant materials with high structural strength (e.g., geosynthetics and

fiber-reinforced composites) used in building safer vehicles. Other physical infrastructure

improvements include durable recycled pavements and composite wrapping materials to

Technology

chapter 6

Of the top 20 engineering

breakthroughs of the 20th

century, five were transportation related: the automobile,

No. 2; the airplane, No. 3; the

Interstate highway system,

No. 11; space exploration,

No. 12; and petroleum and

gas technologies, No. 17

(electrification was No. 1).

National Academy of Engineering

National Engineers’ Week 2000

February 2000
6-2

reinforce older structures. New kinds of superconducting and magnetic materials may

make high-speed ground transportation more attractive, and improved high-temperature

alloys could lead to the development of hypersonic and orbital craft. The emergence of the

field of nanotechnology (the building of devices and materials at the level of atoms and

molecules) opens a new world of possible technology applications and lighter and

stronger materials. For example, nanotechnology could allow for self-healing pavements,

which would prevent cracks and other road damage.

Energy, propulsion, and environmental engineering advances provide options to deliver

improved transportation service that is less costly, more energy-efficient, and environmentally safe. A variety of new power plants for personal vehicles have entered operation

on a test basis; hybrids that use gasoline-electric engines, and vehicles with alternativefueled engines will have particularly broad impacts. The use of alternative fuels, such as

natural gas, can reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides, energy costs, power plant maintenance costs, and dependence on foreign oil. Turbine-powered locomotives, now under

development, are expected to accelerate implementation of high-speed rail corridor

services throughout the country. New technology turbojet/turbofan, ramjet and scramjet

(supersonic combustion ramjet), and linear aerospike engines could transform aviation

during the next quarter century.

Advanced simulation systems enable better evaluation of technological alternatives and

allow more informed transportation investment decisionmaking.

Improvements in information technology will facilitate timelines and improved data

collection and dissemination.

Today’s $300 billion telecommunications industry is becoming inextricably linked with the

transportation system. Transportation moves people and products, while communications

move data and ideas. The two systems provide a link and network for billions of users across

the globe and reinforce each other’s growth. GPS-aided in-car navigation and other satellitebased services serving multimodal transportation users become possible with real-time

communication links to satellites. Geographic information systems will use real-time data

from GPS to become a major resource for planners of future transportation systems.

The following sections provide a detailed description of past and future technological

advances in GPS; Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS); high-speed ground transportation;

and railroad, aviation, and maritime system technologies.

Global Positioning Systems

GPS is a fully operational, worldwide, all-weather, satellite-based navigation system

originally developed in the 1970s. The system has three parts: the space segment, the user

segment, and the control segment. The space segment consists of 24 satellites, each in its own

orbit, 11,000 nautical miles above the Earth; the user segment consists of receivers, which can

be handheld or mounted in a car; and the control segment consists of ground stations (five,

located around the world) that ensure the satellites are working properly [The Aerospace

Corp. 1997]. GPS receivers receive these signals, measure the relative arrival times, and from

these, compute the user’s position. Using signals from at least four satellites, a GPS receiver

can determine three-dimensional geographic coordinates. The United States provides free

GPS service worldwide.

GPS began with the first satellite launch in 1978 and was completed by 1994 with the deployment of the 24th satellite, creating a virtual net of satellite coverage over the entire globe [The

Aerospace Corp. 1997]. The Department of Defense (DOD) originally created GPS to provide
6-3

U.S. and Allied forces with accurate positioning information throughout the globe [Trimble

2000]. Allied forces successfully used GPS during Operation Desert Storm to carry out

complex military maneuvers on land, sea, and in the air [The Aerospace Corp. 1997].

The commercial benefits of GPS became apparent in the early 1990s. Ground-based radionavigation systems were limited in their use; high-frequency radio waves could provide

accurate positioning but within a limited area; and lower frequency radio waves (AM radio)

provided coverage over larger areas but provided inaccurate positioning. With increased

global trade and development of complex logistics, the need for accurate global positioning

became more apparent [The Aerospace Corp. 1997]. The GPS solved this problem by

providing accurate worldwide satellite coverage, and today, the use of GPS in the civil/

commercial sector has grown as the accuracy of positioning information has increased.

Until recently, for national security reasons, the DOD deliberately introduced error into the

GPS signal for civilian and commercial uses. This practice, termed Selective Availability (SA),

provided accuracy of GPS signals to only within 300 feet for civilian and commercial use

[USDOC 2000].

In an effort to increase the reliability and accuracy of GPS and to encourage its peaceful

civilian use, President Clinton issued a Presidential Decision Directive in March 1996,

committing the United States to discontinue the use of SA by 2006. But, on recommendation

by the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Departments

of State, Transportation, and Commerce, the Director of Central

Intelligence, and other Executive Branch departments and

agencies, President Clinton announced the immediate

discontinuation of SA on May 1st 2000, increasing the positioning

accuracy of GPS to within 60 feet for civilian and commercial

usage [USDOC 2000].

Differential GPS: To provide more reliable and accurate satellite

navigation for civilian transportation, the U.S. Department of

Transportation (USDOT) is implementing GPS “augmentations”

based on a technique known as “Differential” GPS (DGPS). DGPS

provides civilian and commercial users predictable accuracy of

better than 10 meters (2 drms) in the coverage area and typically

better than 1 meter within 150 km of the reference station [USDOC

2000] (figure 6-1).

A DGPS ground-based reference station continuously monitors

GPS signals; and because the position of the reference station is

precisely known, errors in satellite signals can be calculated and

corrections broadcast to area users. The users’ DGPS receivers

apply the correction message to improve the accuracy of its own

position. The DGPS broadcast may also include warnings to inform users when the system is

unreliable for navigation. While it is highly accurate, DGPS relies on ground stations, which

limits its geographic coverage over large expanses of water. However, this limitation has not

prevented development of a variety of DGPS–based technologies for various transportation

applications. Maritime DGPS sites incorporate NOAA’s GPS Surface Observing Systems

(GSOS) for measuring weather data and precipital water vapor measurements for forecasting.

In addition, all sites have integrated NOAA’s Continuously Operated Reference Station

(CORS) equipment used for precise positioning and survey uses.

Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) is a technology used for tracking vehicles; vessels; and

mobile assets such as trailers, containers, and equipment. Each mobile unit has a GPS

receiver that reports its position to the base station over a communications network, allowing

“The same technology that

helped our troops succeed

in Desert Storm will bring

us safer air travel throughout the world, improved

transportation on our

roads and highways, and

faster response to emergencies by rescue vehicles.

And it will help America’s

industries lead the world.”

President William J. Clinton

President Opens Door to Commercial

GPS Markets; Move Could Add

100,000 New Jobs to Economy

by Year 2000 (press release)

Mar. 29, 1996
6-4

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Coast Guard Navigation Center, personal communication, October 2000.

Nationwide Differential GPS Coverage as of November 2000

Figure 6-1
6-5

the base station to monitor the entire fleet and manage mobile assets. This permits more

reliable and timely logistics, more precise in-car satellite navigation, and more effective

emergency responses (see also section on Intelligent Transportation Systems).

Satellite navigation also provides unprecedented accuracy and capabilities for mariners and

maritime transportation managers. Underwater surveying, buoy placement, navigational

hazard location, and mapping are increasingly being executed using satellite navigation

signal data. Commercial fishing fleets use satellite navigation to locate optimum fishing

locations and to track fish migrations. Quick access to accurate position, course, and speed

information will save time and fuel by providing more efficient traffic routing.

Many railroad systems are comprised of long stretches of single track. Precise knowledge of a

train’s location is essential to prevent collisions, maintain smooth traffic flow, and minimize

costly delays waiting for a track to clear. Satellite navigation provides a sound positionlocating capability for rail traffic management systems, be it to manage the movement of cars

and engines in switchyards or to ensure worker safety. Current technology also allows for

fully automated train control through the use of DGPS capability, digital maps, and onboard

inertial units.

Important applications of the GPS in aviation are under development and may be deployed in

the near future. These are discussed under Keys to the Future. While we have described

transportation-related uses of GPS above, there are many other civilian uses of GPS. GPS is

being applied in the field of mapping and land surveys; construction of tunnels; location and

dispatch of police, fire, and emergency medical services; wildlife management; and the use of

GPS-equipped balloons to monitor air quality and holes in the ozone layer over polar regions.

Keys to the Future

The USDOT is carrying out three types of DGPS augmentations to meet the requirements of

transportation—maritime, land, and aviation.

The Nationwide Differential Global Positioning System (NDGPS) is being implemented for surface

transportation (maritime and land). Current coverage consists primarily of the USCG’s

Maritime DGPS Service, which is fully operational. More than 30 foreign countries also

recognize the value of DGPS and have implemented surface DGPS services that conform to the

USCG standard [USDOC 2000].

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is implementing GPS augmentation systems for

aviation. Together, the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) and the Local Area Augmentation

System (LAAS) will support all phases of flight. The Chicago metropolitan area’s O’Hare

International and Midway airports will be the initial testbeds for the LAAS. WAAS will

provide guidance for en route flight, terminal, and approach operations. It sends differential

correction and message reliability to aircraft via geostationary earth-orbit (GEO) satellites at

the same frequency as the GPS, thus providing greater accuracy. LAAS will provide greater

accuracy in all weather conditions for the more stringent approach and surface operations.

The LAAS is intended to complement the WAAS; together they supply users with seamless,

satellite-based navigation for all phases of flight and permit the full development of Free

Flight (box 6-1) [USDOT 2000].

The USDOT, along with other federal government departments and agencies, including the

DOD, is seeking to improve GPS services through a modernization program. Future GPS

satellites will have three civilian signals: two frequencies will be protected for radio

navigation, including aviation, and the third for nonaviation civilian uses. There also will be

new military signals [USDOT 2000].
6-6

Free Flight

Pilots today pick from a very limited set of routes and altitudes. But, with GPS navigation, a pilot is

allowed Free Flight—the ability to select the safest and most fuel-efficient route. Through continuous tracking of a plane’s position in relation to that of other planes, a Free Flight path can be

changed manually or by computer to avoid extreme weather conditions or the possibility of collision

with terrain or other aircraft. Tests have been conducted in the United States and over the central

Pacific, and the results have been encouraging. Free Flight should be used by a significant portion

of the world’s airlines by 2010. Benefits of Free Flight include shorter flight times, cost savings,

safer flights, lower energy use, and less pollution.

Sources: Trimble Navigation Limited, All About GPS, available at http://www.trimble.com/gps/index.htm, as of Aug.

18, 2000; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Free Flight, available at http://

www.faa.gov/freeflight/ff-OV.htm, as of Aug. 10, 2000.

This modernization should provide civilian and commercial users with both the accuracy of

DGPS and worldwide coverage. The availability of multiple signals will make the modernized GPS more resistant to atmospheric interference. By 2015, civilian use of GPS is projected

to achieve a positioning accuracy to within 15 feet, anywhere in the world [USDOT 2000].

Intelligent Transportation Systems

ITS represents the application of advanced technologies involving

information processing, electronics and communication, and management strategies to improve our transportation system. Benefits

associated with ITS include improved safety, increased system

capacity, reduced travel times, and improved productivity. In short,

ITS is using technology to make travel smarter.

ITS technologies can be divided into four functional areas—

Metropolitan ITS, Rural ITS, Intelligent Vehicle Initiative (IVI), and

Commercial Vehicles Operations (CVO). Each of these functional

areas has a set of interlinked systems, which are discussed in this

section.

Box 6-2

Galileo—The European ‘Satellite Navigation Initiative’

Galileo is an initiative of the European Union, in collaboration with the European Space

Agency and the private sector, to provide a European civilian-controlled satellite navigation system.

As of today, it is still in the planning stage with system design and development to be initiated on

January 1, 2001, and deployment to be completed by the end of 2008. Galileo provides a

European alternative to GPS and will seek to achieve interoperability with GPS for the benefit of the

user community.

Galileo will operate on three levels. The global component will provide basic positioning services of

the Galileo system worldwide. A regional component will fulfill a higher performance requirement

on a regional basis especially on a European geographic level. The local component aims to

increase the accuracy and integrity of the service over local areas, such as airports or harbors.

The primary means for this is a local differential station, located in a fixed and well-known

position, which can then calculate the local errors in the Galileo signals and broadcast the

associated corrections to the users.

Source: Galileo Definition Phase Initial Results, available at www.galileo-pgm.org as of October 5, 2000.

Box 6-1

“I want 75 of our largest

metropolitan areas with a

complete Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure in

10 years. And let us make

a similar commitment to

upgrading technology in

450 other communities, our

rural roads, and

Interstates, as the need

warrants.”

Federico Peña

Former Secretary of Transportation

Transportation Research Board

Jan. 10, 1996
6-7

Box 6-3

The roots of ITS predate the establishment of a formal program by several decades. The

world’s first centralized traffic signal control system was installed in Toronto, Canada, in

1963. The first metered ramp was installed in Chicago on the Eisenhower Expressway in

1963. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) conducted research on an Electronic

Route Guidance System (ERGS) in the late 1960s. These early efforts, however, were isolated

and costly; although some, such as ERGS, were ahead of the times.

ITS in its current form emerged only in the late 1980s. Its growth and development were

encouraged by several factors:

The revolution in electronics and information technology generated dramatic

performance/cost improvements in computer, sensor, and communications technologies.

Concerns over traffic congestion, traffic safety, and air quality were growing.

There was an increasing realization that new construction alone would not solve these

problems.

There was growing concern that

European and Japanese ITS initiatives

would reduce the competitiveness of

the U.S. transportation industry.

The most significant incentives in ITS

development came from three sources: an

ad hoc public-private-academic

partnership called Mobility 2000, an

independent study by the National

Academy of Sciences, and a congressionally requested USDOT study. The

recommendations of these groups

resulted in the passage of the Intelligent

Vehicle Highway System (IVHS) Act in

1991. The act called for a “national

system of travel support technology,

smoothly coordinated among modes and

jurisdictions to promote safe, expeditious,

and economical movement of goods and people.” The federal focus was placed on research,

development, and operational testing of ITS technologies and standards (box 6-3).

The Transportation Efficiency Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21), which President Clinton

signed into law in 1998, recognized the maturity of many ITS-related technologies and

broadened federal focus to place an equal importance on deployment. Similarly, state and

local governments, as well as private industry, had begun deploying ITS.

Standards Development

The USDOT-led creation of a national ITS architecture and the drafting of related standards are

intended to lead to the development of open, interchangeable systems and components. This

common architecture serves as a framework for regional ITS planning throughout the United

States, and it has become a model for similar architecture development efforts now underway in

Canada, the European Union, and Japan.

The growth in deployment is demonstrated through federal spending on ITS infrastructure,

which totaled $1.3 billion from FY 1991 to FY 1997 [USGAO 1997]. These funds were

Charlie Westerman/Chicago

In-vehicle navigation devices (most commonly found in rental

and luxury cars) provide drivers with navigational assistance

while en route to their destination
6-8

primarily invested in Freeway Management Systems and Coordinated Traffic Signal Control

Systems. ITS is being deployed across the country, and the rate of both public- and privatesector deployments appears to be increasing. Figure 6-2 shows the actual federal funding for

ITS infrastructure from 1997 to 1999 and targeted funding through 2003 under TEA-21.

Between 1991 and 1999, ITS technologies, such as electronic toll collection and freeway

monitoring systems, were increasingly deployed throughout the country. Figure 6-3 illustrates

the deployment of ITS technologies among the 78 largest metropolitan areas with ITS

deployments. Early testing, such as the TravTek test in Orlando, Florida, during 1991 and

1992, and ADVANCE in Chicago, Illinois, led to niche deployment of in-vehicle navigation

systems. During this same period, the Internet became a global phenomenon, and civilian use

of the GPS became available and affordable.

The following subsections discuss the first 10 years of ITS research, testing, and deployment,

from 1991 through 2000.

Metropolitan ITS: Metropolitan ITS infrastructure is made up of nine major components,

including Arterial Management Systems, Freeway Management Systems, Transit Management

Systems, Incident Management Systems, Emergency Management, Electronic Toll Collection

(ETC), Electronic Fare Payment, Highway-Rail Intersections, and Regional Multimodal

Traveler Information. Table 6-1 shows these various components of Metropolitan ITS and

their benefits.

Arterial Management Systems involve the use of roadside devices, communications equipment,

and specialized software to improve traffic flow along local roads and arterials (non-freeway

roadways). Primary focus is on traffic signal control to alleviate congestion; secondary

emphasis is on signal pre-emption or prioritization for emergency and transit vehicles and

intersection monitoring. The signal pre-emption technology, where a traffic signal turns to

green as a transit bus approaches the intersection, can reduce travel times by up to 30 percent

[Hagler Bailly 1999]. Figure 6-4 shows the number of metropolitan areas where different types

of traffic signal control technologies are deployed.

Note: 1997 data reflect funding

from multiple sources. 1998 to

2003 data include ITS Research

and Development funds and ITS

Deployment funds.

Source: U.S. Department of

Transportation, Federal Highway

Administration, TEA-21 Fact

Sheet – Intelligent Transportation

Systems Program (Washington,

DC: 1998).

Federal Funding for Intelligent Transportation

Systems Program: 1997-2003

Figure 6-2

200

Millions of U.S. dollars

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

250

0

50

100

150
6-9

Projected Growth in E-Commerce (1997 to 2004)

Figure 6-16

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Joint Program Office for Intelligent

Transportation Systems, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan Intelligent Transportation Systems

Infrastructure in the USA: FY 1997 Results (Washington, DC: 1999).

The Largest 78 Metropolitan Areas with ITS Deployments: 1997

Figure 6-3

Seattle-TacomaBremerton

Portland-Salem

Las Vegas

SacramentoYolo San Francisco-

 Oakland-

 San Jose

Fresno

Bakersfield

Los AngelesRiversideOrange County

San Diego

Salt Lake CityOgden

PhoenixMesa

Albuquerque

DenverBoulderGreeley

El Paso

Dallas-Ft. Worth

Austin-San Marcos

San Antonio

Tulsa

HoustonGalvestonBrazoria

Oklahoma City

Wichita

New Orleans

Atlanta

Jacksonville

Baton

Rouge

Birmingham

Memphis

Omaha

Kansas City

Little Rock

Nashville

Charleston

MinneapolisSt. Paul

TampaSt. Petersburg

Orlando

MiamiFt. Lauderdale

Knoxville

Louisville St. Louis

ChicagoGaryKenosha

MilwaukeeRacine

DetroitAnn ArborFlint

Grand RapidsMuskegonHolland

Indianapolis

Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV

Richmond-Petersburg

Baltimore

Philadelphia-WilmingtonAtlantic City

Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle

New York-Northern New JerseySouthwestern Connecticut

Rochester

Buffalo- Syracuse

Niagara Falls

AlbanySchenectadyTroy

Cincinnati-Hamilton

Dayton-Springfield

Columbus

ClevelandAkron

Pittsburgh

Boston-Worcester

Lawrence

Springfield

Providence-Fall RiverWarwick

Hartford

New Haven

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton

Honolulu

Raleigh-DurhamChapel Hill

GreensboroWinston Salem-High Point

Charlotte-GastoniaRock Hill

Greenville-SpartanburgAnderson

See Detail Below

San Juan, Puerto Rico
6-10

Freeway and Incident Management Systems include ramp metering programs, freeway surveillance systems, incident response systems, and information display or communications

systems (e.g., variable message signs and highway advisory radio). Ramp meters are traffic

signals on freeway entrance ramps that supply traffic to the freeway in a measured or

regulated amount. The number of cities with ramp metering has remained fairly constant

during the decade (22 of the largest 78 metropolitan areas employ ramp metering) (figure 6-5),

but the number of ramps that are metered has increased. Surveillance systems, such as loop

detectors and video cameras, became widely deployed on the freeways during the 1990s

(figure 6-6). As the decade ended, a few localities also were beginning to provide video

surveillance at major intersections to reduce the incidence of red-light running.

The acceptance of automated enforcement technology, while still controversial, has grown as

the limited use of automated traffic signal enforcement has shown large benefits. For example,

Fairfax City, Virginia, showed a 35 percent reduction in red-light running incidents after

installing enforcement systems.

Transit Management Systems were deployed in the 1990s by many large and small transit

agencies. Typical systems included AVL and Computer-Aided Dispatch (CAD) systems.

These systems date back several decades, but in the 1990s, GPS became the primary location

technology, due to its general reliability and decreasing cost. These systems delivered

improved service reliability, improved operator visibility into problems, and enhanced

security. A 1996 study found that 22 transit agencies had equipped 7,000 vehicles with AVL,

and another 47 agencies were in the process of securing AVL systems. The passage of the

Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) also guaranteed increased demand for AVL and CAD

Metropolitan Intelligent Transportation System Infrastructure—Functions and Benefits

Source: A. Proper, Intelligent Transportation Systems Benefits: 1999 Update, prepared by Mitretek Systems for the Federal Highway

Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1999, available at www.its.gov/eval/itsbenefits.htminventory99b.pdf, as of Aug.18,

2000.

Table 6-1

Infrastructure

Arterial management

Functions

Monitor arterial network traffic

Implement range of adaptive control strategies

Manage area-wide signal coordination

Benefits Provided

Safety, decreased travel times, increased capacity, fuel savings/lower

emissions, customer satisfaction

Freeway management Monitor freeway conditions

Identify flow impediments

Control ramp metering and lane control

Control highway advisory radios

Safety, decreased travel times,

increased capacity

Incident management Incident detection

Incident response/clearance

Safety, decreased travel times, fuel

savings/lower emissions

Transit management Monitor transit vehicle position

Disseminate real-time schedules

Provide computer-aided dispatch

Provide vehicle condition monitoring

Safety, decreased travel times, lower

costs, customer satisfaction

Electronic fare payment Provide payment at station/stop or in-vehicle Decreased travel times, customer satisfaction

Electronic toll

collection

Provide payment at toll collection stop Decreased travel times, increased

capacity, lower costs

Emergency

management

Monitor vehicle location

Provide fleet management support

Decreased travel times, customer

satisfaction

Highway-rail crossing

management

Provide remote monitoring of highway-rail

intersections

Safety

Regional multimodal

traveler information

Provide information distribution on weather

conditions

Lower costs, customer satisfaction, fuel

savings/lower emissions
6-11

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Joint Program Office for Intelligent Transportation

Systems, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan Intelligent Transportation Systems Infrastructure in the USA, FY

1997 Results (Washington, DC: 1998).

Deployment of Traffic Signal Control Technologies: 1997

Figure 6-4

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Joint Program Office for Intelligent Transportation

Systems, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan Intelligent Transportation Systems Infrastructure in the USA, FY

1997 Results (Washington, DC: 1998).

Deployment of Freeway Management Traffic Control Technologies: 1997

Figure 6-5

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Number of metropolitan areas

Signals that allow

preemption for

emergency

vehicles

Signalized

intersections

under closed-loop

control

Signalized

intersections

under centralized

control

Signals with realtime traffic

adaptive control

using advanced

software

Signals that allow

priority for transit

vehicles

25

20

15

10

5

0

Ramp meter Ramp 

meters under

centralized

control only

Ramp 

meters under

isolated and

centralized

control

Ramp

meters

providing

priority for

transit

vehicles

Ramp 

meters 

providing

priority for

emergency

vehicles

Ramp 

meters under

isolated

control only

Lane control

Number of metropolitan areas
6-12

systems, as well as for

communications, automatic stop annunciation, and other

technologies [McGurrin

2000].

Electronic Toll Collection

(ETC) deploys various

communication and

electronic technologies

to support the automated collection of

payment at toll plazas

and other collection

points. ETC is among

the most successful ITS

applications

(figure 6-7). Since the

first electronic toll

system was installed in New Orleans in 1989, more than 100 facilities in 39 areas have

installed ETC systems, and the number of vehicles equipped with radio frequency toll tags

has grown to more than four million. The Oklahoma turnpike has estimated that the

operating cost for an electronic toll lane is less than one-tenth that of a standard lane. The

Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority found that the increased throughput of ETC lanes

has shortened the evening congestion period by 90 minutes on the Verrazano Narrows Bridge

[Shibata & French 1996].

Electronic Fare Payment systems were tested or deployed by a number of transit agencies during

the 1990s. Although only a limited number of systems have been deployed, the rate of deployment is expected to increase because reliable and fast systems are now available. These

systems reduce operating costs (due to reduced cash handling), can aid in passenger

counting, and are convenient for passengers. This convenience is expected to increase as the

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Joint Program

Office for Intelligent Transportation Systems, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan Intelligent Transportation Systems Infrastructure in the USA: FY 1997 Results (Washington,

DC: 1998).

Deployment of Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) Technologies: 1997

Figure 6-7

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Joint

Program Office for Intelligent Transportation Systems, Tracking the Deployment of the

Integrated Metropolitan Intelligent Transportation Systems Infrastructure in the USA,

FY 1997 Results (Washington, DC: 1998).

Figure 6-6

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Loop

detectors

Closedcircuit

television

Radar

detectors

Video image

detectors

Acoustic

detectors

Video Probe

readers

 

Number of metropolitan areas

Deployment of Freeway Surveillance Systems: 1997

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Dedicated 

or mixed 

ETC lanes

Tag-based

in-vehicle

equipment

Distributed

antennae

location

Focus beam

antennae

location

In pavement

antennae

location

Other

antennae

location

Number of metropolitan areas
6-13

payment systems become

integrated with other

applications and one card can

be used for many purposes.

Regional Multimodal Traveler

Information is being supplied

by several transit agencies that

have started using traveler

information kiosks and Internet

sites to provide schedules,

expected arrival times, expected

trip times, and route planning

services to patrons. Also,

several traffic management

centers are providing current

traffic conditions and expected

travel times using similar

approaches. These services

allow users to make a more

informed decision for trip

departures, routes, and travel.

They have been shown to increase transit usage and may help to reduce congestion when

travelers choose to defer or postpone trips or select alternate routes.

Traveler information via the Internet went from nonexistent in 1990 to widespread deployment by 2000. Today, nearly every state provides highway construction and/or road closure

information via the Internet (box 6-4). Thirty-five of the 75 largest cities make real-time

freeway traffic information available [Gordon 1999].

ITS and the Internet

The Internet will play an increasingly important role in disseminating traveler information. Currently, the Internet is used primarily for semiautomated information exchange, in which people use

a browser to pull information on traffic conditions and transit schedules from an automated server.

The next major stage in the evolution of the Internet will be support for fully automated information

exchange. This will be supported by the widespread availability of high-speed Internet access; lowcost, adequate security; and new standards. These trends will increase the utility of Internet-based

real-time and predictive traffic information, both between agencies and consumers, with benefits

also provided to commercial vehicle operations, fleet management, and intermodal freight tracking.

Rural ITS: Rural travelers need the same basic ITS services required by urban travelers, but

the priorities are different. These priorities and needs reflect the conditions in rural localities:

generally longer local travel distances; lower traffic volumes; longer emergency response

times; sparse and patchy telecommunications infrastructure; and a dispersed system with

high unit costs for service delivery, operations, and maintenance.

As a result, there is an emphasis on weather and road condition information for all rural highway

users and on the use of automatic vehicle location and computer-aided dispatch systems for rural

transit and paratransit services. Automated collision notification and mayday services are

already operational in some areas. Improving traveler information in National Parks also is

an important initiative under Rural ITS. Table 6-2 shows the major components of Rural ITS

and their benefits.

Advanced Traffic Management Centers (TMCs), such as this one in

Atlanta, Georgia, allow traffic engineers and operations personnel to

proactively manage the freeway and arterial street systems while

providing a comprehensive source of real-time traffic data for traveler

information systems.

Georgia Department of Transportation

Box 6-4
6-14

Intelligent Vehicle Initiative:

Following the successful testing

in 1997 at San Diego, California,

the federal Automated Highway

System program became the

Intelligent Vehicle Initiative,

with a focus on implementable,

near-term safety improvements.

Automated highway research,

such as the California

Department of Transportationsupported research into fully

automated vehicle operation,

continued at a lower level.

Three important sets of

technologies under this

initiative are discussed below.

In-Vehicle Navigation and

Dynamic Route Guidance (using

real-time traffic information)

can provide turn-by-turn

instructions to guide travelers to

their destinations and support

travel-related services (gas

stations, hotels, and parking). Within a few years, navigation systems will be able to

incorporate data on traffic conditions in real-time and adapt the preferred route accordingly.

This system may incorporate the use of GPS antennas and receivers, Liquid Crystal Display

(LCD) panels, Compact Disk-Read Only Memory/Digital Video Disk (CD-ROM/DVD)

players, communications hardware, driver interface units, map databases, and route

optimization programs. These technologies have established a niche in the rental car market

and in some higher-end car models, but their use is spreading with the increasing accuracy

and falling costs of component technologies [Proper 1999].

Rural ITS Infrastructure—Functions and Benefits

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Joint Program Office for Intelligent

Transportation Systems, Measuring ITS Deployment and Integration, Version 2 (Washington, DC: January 1999).

Table 6-2

Infrastructure

Travel safety and security

Functions

Hazardous conditions information

Surveillance

Benefits Provided

Safety, customer satisfaction 

Emergency services Incident notification mobilization and

response

Safety

Tourism and travel

information

Route selection, navigation, and

services information

Operation and

maintenance

Traffic management Decreased travel times, lower costs

Public travel and

mobility services

Transit accessibility

Dispatch and routing

Ride sharing and matching

Fuel, savings/lower emissions,

customer satisfaction

Customer satisfaction

Washington State Department of Transportation

State and local departments of transportation make use of the Internet to

provide real-time traveler information to the public. Dynamic Web pages

are linked to advanced traffic management systems to display real-time

travel speed, incident and road construction information.
6-15

Collision Avoidance and Warning Systems are expected to improve highway safety by reducing

the number of crashes. Collision avoidance includes several user services, such as Intelligent

Cruise Control, Rear-End Crash Avoidance, and Road Departure Avoidance. Each of these is

described in detail in Chapter 3 under Highway Safety.

Mayday and Security Systems combine wireless communications and positioning information

to enhance driver/passenger safety. The Mayday System enables the driver (or vehicle) to

notify emergency services immediately in the event of an accident. As an added feature,

travelers can contact roadside assistance, request navigation assistance, and track a stolen

vehicle. Typical systems consist of in-vehicle hardware and a monthly service charge.

Applicable hardware includes GPS antennas and receivers and communications hardware

[Hagler Bailly 2000].

Commercial Vehicle Operations (CVO): The ITS/CVO initiative is expected to improve

administrative efficiency, highway data collection, and safety, and also reduce operating costs

of commercial vehicles. Currently, ITS/CVO covers three areas of state motor vehicle

regulations. These are discussed below.

Electronic Screening can result in reduced congestion at weigh and inspection stations by

allowing safe and legal carriers to bypass without stopping. Roadside electronic screening

allows authorities to concentrate on greater percentages of potentially unsafe vehicles.

Safety Information Exchange Programs will assist in improving the safe operation of commercial

vehicles. These programs will provide inspectors with better access to safety information,

increasing the number of unsafe commercial drivers and vehicles removed from the highway.

On-board monitoring of cargo can alert drivers and carriers of potential unsafe load

conditions.

Credentials Administration will support in-house administrative functions and can provide

savings to state and administrative agencies. Electronic credentialing can improve the time

required for states to approve operating permits. Data warehouses can facilitate the exchange

of credentials data between agencies and states.

Keys to the Future

By 2010, high quality, real-time travel information will be generally available for urban and

heavily used Interstate routes, usually via wireless receivers. By 2025, real-time transportation

management will be a reality, with highways and transit not just monitored, but proactively

managed. For example, traffic control strategies will be closely coordinated to prevent

alternative routes from becoming congested after a primary route becomes congested.

By 2025, improved sensors, sophisticated algorithms, and more powerful computers will yield

systems that greatly improve driver situational awareness, vehicle controllability, and

crashworthiness, as well as sense driver incapacitation due to fatigue, alcohol, drugs, or any

other cause. Voice recognition for various functions will minimize problems caused by driver

inattention resulting from distraction or other factors. Full integration of these systems into

vehicle design, coupled with external inputs regarding weather, road conditions, intentions,

or status of nearby vehicles, and other safety advisories, will extend the dramatic decline in

fatality and injury rates that began in the early 1970s.

Open standards-based traffic management equipment now in development will support

interoperability, which will promote new entrants and encourage development of new

technologies. Today’s cluster of intelligent transportation vehicles and travel planning and
6-16

information services will be integrated in new vehicles with smart driver-operator

technologies, in-car sensors, on-board emission management systems, and links to wayside

information infrastructure. Advanced multispectral sensors, distributed microprocessors,

communications, tracking technologies, and traffic information displays in urban traffic

management centers will improve safety, enable more efficient use of limited infrastructure

capacity, relieve congestion, and lessen the environmental impacts of transportation.

Travelers will benefit from integrated trip planning, scheduling, and routing options—the

result of in-car navigation and information systems that are linked directly into the vehicle’s

electronics systems to provide maps, weather data, traffic conditions, and alternative routes.

With the improvements made possible by ITS deployment, the passenger automobile probably

will continue to dominate transportation in the United States. However, the passenger car

will go through some marked changes over the next 20 to 30 years. More fuel-efficient

gasoline powered cars will be joined by hybrid diesel-electric vehicles, alternatively fueled

vehicles, and fuel cell powered vehicles. The market for automobiles may partition, based on

trip lengths and purposes. Electric cars and station cars, powered by advanced or

conventional electric batteries, as well as solar-powered and people-powered personal

vehicles, will assist commuters to perform local errands or economically reach transit system

suburban collection terminals. These will complement larger vehicles, which will be used for

longer trips, or when additional carrying capacity is needed. Both types of vehicles should be

lighter and safer than current autos, as vehicle structures use more new plastics and

composite materials.

Application of improved understanding of human performance and behavior, vehicle

crashworthiness, and biomechanics, coupled with the structural improvements noted above,

will help mitigate crash impacts substantially. However, most of the systems to improve

safety will be introduced as equipment on new vehicles. The integration of new systems on a

fleetwide basis may take 10 to 20 years from initial introduction of the technology. The

average age of vehicles in the fleet is increasing, as more solid construction and reduced needs

for maintenance permit consumers to retain their vehicles longer. Overall safety statistics will

improve, but may not fully reflect the benefits of new crash avoidance/mitigation techniques

at once.

Personal commuting and family pleasure travel will have many more real-time travel

planning, scheduling, and routing options, due to intelligent recreational vehicles, advanced

public transportation systems, and automated highway systems. The safety of personal travel

and commercial vehicle operations will be ensured by advanced incident management and

onboard collision avoidance radars, as well as intelligent cruise control. Speech recognition

software will allow drivers to make vehicles comply by asking for the change. In-car

navigation and information systems will be commonplace, integrated directly at all times and

in all weather, and small video cameras may substitute for items like rearview mirrors.

Intelligent driver trainers and simulators will be used to prepare and test for driver licensing

and sobriety testing, as well as for safety recertification.

For intercity trips, there should also be fully automated highways, allowing high-speed auto

travel with minimal driver intervention on selected routes. These may be separate highways,

or lanes on existing/expanded highways reserved for vehicles with the appropriate highspeed control packages. The intelligent infrastructure for these highways will be compatible

with, and possibly integrated into, multimodal traffic control systems directing aviation and

maritime movements.

Public transportation systems will provide widely available, inexpensive alternatives to the

personal vehicle for shorter trips. The recent emphasis on “smart growth” and “livable

communities” will promote new human-scale developments that are designed to be served by

local circulation and transit systems. Shuttle services will link these complexes with intercity

modes for longer trips among clusters of development.
6-17

Computer dispatched paratransit vehicles serving the suburbs and elderly and disabled

passengers will integrate with, and share HOV lanes with, advanced technology urban and

intercity transit buses in more densely developed areas. Specialized and public transit

services will reach into rural and lower-density areas, linking their carless residents to urban

services. Many of these options will be powered using alternative fuels or use fuel cells.

The transit systems will profit from the technologies of the intelligent transportation

infrastructure, with safety and performance improvements in bus vehicle maneuvering, merge

collision avoidance, forward collision avoidance, and docking. Automatic vehicle location

systems will be commonplace, with positions monitored from metropolitan scale traffic

management centers. Real-time information on actual bus positions and schedules should be

readily available to potential riders. With an increasing number of elderly riders, these

systems will exemplify the “human centered design” concept.

High-Speed Ground Transportation

High-speed, ground transportation is a self-guided intercity passenger transportation mode

that is time-competitive with air and/or auto for trips of 100 to 500 miles. This form of

transportation has been a prevalent phenomenon outside of the United States, with the French

National Railways’ TGV, Germany’s ICE train, and Japan’s Shinkansen train having long

been leaders in high-speed ground transportation.

From the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, intercity passenger trains lost more than three-fourths of

their traffic base; high-speed services such as the multiple fast schedules between Chicago

and the Twin Cities disappeared, and much of the passenger infrastructure deteriorated or

was scrapped. Amtrak, which was created in 1971, was establishing itself from the passenger

services, equipment, and facilities it had inherited from its predecessor railroad companies.

In 1975, corridor-type passenger service with top speeds of 90 miles per hour (mph) or greater

existed on the Northeast Corridor main line, on two Northeast Corridor extensions, and on

former Santa Fe Railway trackage in Southern California. However, no federal funding was

available or proposed for high-speed rail corridors beyond the Northeast Corridor main line.

Under the High-Speed Ground Transportation Act of 1965, a partnership between the federal

government and the Penn Central Transportation Company had created two major demonstrations of incremental high-speed rail technology later operated by Amtrak:

1. Metroliners, which offered schedules of three hours between New York City and

Washington over old tracks and other fixed facilities; and

2. Turbotrains, which provided a somewhat improved service between New York and

Boston over the antiquated former New Haven Railroad.

In 1975, the Northeast Corridor main line was about to receive what amounted to nearly $3.3

billion (by the end of 1980s) in federal fixed-facility investments to implement the

recommendations of the Northeast Corridor Transportation Project for improved high-speed

rail service between Washington, New York, Boston, and intermediate points [USDOT FRA

2000b].

High-speed service also was offered on two analogous routes in the 100- to 150-mile range,

each linking a state capital with the state’s largest city. The first ran over 104 miles of former

Pennsylvania Railroad trackage between Philadelphia and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. The

second covered 145 miles of former New York Central Railroad trackage between New York

City and Albany, New York. A third line in California, Santa Fe’s 129-mile Surf Line, provided

90-mph service between Los Angeles and San Diego [USDOT FRA 2000b].
6-18

The federally funded Northeast Corridor Project provided the Washington–New York–Boston

main line with a largely new infrastructure. The project realigned curves; upgraded track

structure, including concrete ties; installed a new train control system with centralized traffic

and electrification control; renovated stations; built new equipment shops; eliminated most

highway grade crossings; and

installed a new electrification

system between New Haven and

Boston, permitting fully electrified

operation along the Boston–

Washington right-of-way.

The original Metroliners and

Turbotrains have been replaced by

a new generation of locomotivehauled trains. A third generation

of Acela luxury equipment is in

service on the Northeast Corridor.

Reliable daily operation achieves

150-mph top speeds [USDOT FRA

2000b].

Progress also occurred on the two

high-speed extensions of the

Northeast Corridor. In the 1990s, New York State, Amtrak, the localities, and the federal

government invested nearly $300 million in upgrading and re-equipping the Albany to New

York portion of the Empire Corridor.

California, meanwhile, made significant investments in the Los Angeles to San Diego Surf

Line as part of a program in the 1990s to upgrade and re-equip its entire Amtrak network,

including lines linking Southern California, the Central Valley, the Bay Area, and Sacramento.

About two-thirds of this $2 billion investment was state financing; the rest came from Amtrak,

the localities, the freight railroads, and various federal sources. California plans a $300

million additional investment early in the 2000s [USDOT FRA 2000b].

Today, high-speed ground transportation options fall into three groups: accelerated rail

service over existing railroads (Incremental High-Speed Rail [HSR]), new high-speed rail

systems (New HSR); and magnetic levitation (Maglev), in order of increasing performance

capabilities and initial cost (box 6-5).

The 1998 TEA-21 transportation legislation authorized a Magnetic Levitation Transportation

Technology Deployment Program with $55 million for high-speed Maglev construction

planning and up to $950 million authorized for construction of a single Maglev project

[USDOT FHWA 1998]. In 1999, the federal government initiated a competition to select the

best Maglev project for the purpose of demonstrating the use of Maglev technology, with

selection slated for 2001 and design and construction for 2002 [USDOT FRA 2000a].

Incremental HSR has shown significant evolution since 1975 and is poised for still more

expansion in the 21st century. In the 1990s, sizable federal commitments were made for HSR

development outside the Northeast Corridor main line. The transportation reauthorization

bills of 1991 and 1998 had established and expanded a program to federally designate highspeed corridors (figure 6-8). Among the corridors that had applied for designations and

future funding as high-speed corridors as of early 2000 were lines between Chicago and

Cleveland; Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati, Ohio; and Boston, Massachusetts, and

Portland, Maine.

Amtrak

The Acela train, capable of reaching speeds of 150 mph, will

provide an unprecedented high quality of service within the

Northeast Corridor.
6-19

Types of High-Speed Ground Transportation

Incremental HSR consists of upgraded intercity rail passenger service on existing railroad rights-ofway, most of which belong to the freight railroads. Incremental HSR options may have top speeds

ranging from 90 to 150 mph and may be electrified (powered by electricity distributed to locomotives through overhead wires) or non-electrified (powered by on-board generators).

New HSR represents advanced steel-wheel-on-rail passenger systems on largely new rights-of-way.

Through a combination of electrification and other advanced components, expeditious alignments,

and state-of-the-art rolling stock, new HSR can attain maximum practical operating speeds on the

order of 200 mph. However, because the trains are still able to operate on existing track, new

HSR can combine new lines with existing approaches to urban terminals. The ability to operate

over existing rights-of-way at their prevailing speeds, as well as on new routes, means that service

can be extended beyond the New HSR line to other cities.

Maglev is an advanced transport technology in which magnetic forces lift, propel, and guide a

vehicle over a specially designed guideway. Using state-of-the-art electric power and control

systems, this configuration eliminates the need for wheels and many other mechanical parts,

thereby minimizing resistance and permitting excellent acceleration, with cruising speeds on the

order of 300 mph or more. This high performance would enable Maglev to provide aircompetitive trip times at longer trip distances than other high-speed ground transportation options.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, High Speed Ground Transportation for

America (Washington, DC: September 1997).

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, personal communication, October 2000.

Designated High-Speed Rail Corridors: 2000

Figure 6-8

Box 6-5

Pacific

Northwest

Corridor

California 

Corridor

Chicago Hub

Empire Corridor

Northeast 

Corridor

Gulf Coast

Corridor

Northeast Corridor

Designated Corridors Prior to 10/11/2000

New Designations, Extensions, California Clarification as of 10/11/2000

Southeast 

Corridor

Keystone

Corridor

Columbus

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

Philadelphia

Washington, D.C.

Hampton Roads

Houston New Orleans

Mobile

Meridian

Birmingham

Minneapolis/St. Paul

Milwaukee

Chicago

St. Louis

Indianapolis

Cincinnati

Detroit

Buffalo Boston

New York City

Harrisburg

Richmond

Raleigh Charlotte

Greenville

Atlanta Columbia

Macon

Savannah

Jacksonville

Louisville

Vancouver, B.C.

Seattle

Portland

Salem

Eugene

Tacoma

Sacramento

Fresno

Los Angeles

San Diego

San Francisco

Bay Area

San Antonio

Austin

Dallas/Ft. Worth

Oklahoma City

Tulsa

Little Rock

Montreal

Portland/Auburn

South Central

 Corridor

Northern New

England Corridor

Stockton

Tampa

Orlando

West Palm Beach

Florida Miami

Corridor

Toledo

Texarkana

Albany
6-20

Figure 6-16

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal

Railroad Administration, High-Speed Ground

Transportation for America (Washington, DC: 1997).

Projected Growth in Passenger-Miles in

the Northeast Corridor: 1975-2025

Figure 6-9

0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1975

Passenger-miles, billions

2000 2025

The 1990s also saw a renaissance of technology development for HSR. This Next-Generation

High-Speed Rail Development Program addressed specific subsystems for enhancing the

safety and affordability of HSR. These systems included:

turbine-powered high-speed locomotives,

radio-based positive train control,

new cost-effective grade crossing solutions, and

better riding, lower cost track and structures.

Keys to the Future

If state and Amtrak interest in high-speed rail continues to grow, then corridors in many

regions of the nation could provide significant high-speed train service by 2025. In particular,

by 2025, all of today’s designated corridors would have Amtrak service at 90 mph or better.

These corridors will bring high-speed rail service to 150 million people living in metropolitan

areas, nearly 75 percent of the metropolitan population. There could also be other lines, such

as the additional Chicago Hub lines under consideration by the Midwestern consortium,

parts of the Texas Triangle, or one or more of the lines for which designation applications

were pending as of December 31, 1999.

To the extent that high-speed rail takes hold, the public would obtain benefits from airport

and highway congestion reduction and from reduced air pollution. The extent of these

benefits for a group of eight illustrative corridors is analyzed in a federal report, High-Speed

Ground Transportation for America [USDOT FRA 1997].

By 2025, the next generation HSR technologies will mature to support reliable, cost-effective

systems with superb service quality:

nonelectrified corridors working at 125 to 150 mph,

train control in place nationwide for productivity and safety,

virtually all crossings eliminated on rail routes with significant traffic, and

infrastructure delivering superb ride quality at low

cost.

HSR’s inherent advantages, particularly its

connectivity with commuter rail and urban transit

systems, could be fully realized, offering seamless

transportation to a growing clientele.

HSR investments can yield significant benefits in

terms of transportation production. For example, in

the Northeast Corridor, traffic growth estimates project

that high-speed rail will generate 3.5 billion

passenger-miles annually by 2025, up from about 1.1

billion in 1975 and 1.7 billion in 2000 (figure 6-9). The

High-Speed Ground Transportation for America report

shows the expected growth in annual passenger-miles

for typical corridors outside the Northeast Corridor

main line (figure 6-10).

The first Maglev project in the United States could be

operating in revenue service by 2010 if funds are

appropriated. Beginning with a short demonstration,

it could point to longer intercity systems in very highdensity corridors. In fact, the High Speed Ground
6-21

Transportation for America report found that Maglev could have the potential to bring about

public-private implementation partnerships in the nation’s two highest density corridors: the

Northeast Corridor and California. Maglev could capture two-fifths of the existing airline

market in California and generate almost six billion passenger-miles by 2025. In the

Northeast Corridor, Maglev could capture about two-fifths of the remaining air market in the

Northeast Corridor—about half the New York-Washington air/rail traffic currently uses

Amtrak—and would generate about five billion passenger-miles per year in 2025.

It also is possible that Maglev would induce a heavy volume of completely new traffic, given

the unusually short travel times it would permit between the major Northeast Corridor cities.

By offering a new level of ground transportation service, a 300-mile-per-hour Maglev system

in a major corridor would divert significant traffic from existing airports and highways. This

would result in reduced congestion delays and emissions and would also reduce the need to

expand air and highway facilities.

Railroad System Technologies

Over the last quarter century, the traffic on our railroad system has continued to increase, both

for passenger travel and freight movement. However, the extent of the rail system has not

changed substantially, which has led to congestion on the system and caused safety-related

concerns. Use of advanced communication, information, and navigation technologies can

help enhance efficiency, capacity, and safety of the existing railroad system.

Typical railroad locomotives produced in 1975 were 3,600 horsepower diesel-electrics with

direct current (DC) traction motors [USDOT FRA 2000c]. Continuous welded rail was just

entering into widespread application, and wooden ties were used under all trackage. The

typical freight car had a 70-ton carrying capacity, although 100-ton cars had just been

introduced; all freight cars were made of steel. Unit trains were operated on only a limited

number of routes. Only about one-third of the track network was signalized, and microwave

radio communications systems had been installed primarily on the western railroads [USDOT

FRA 2000c]. Improved understanding of train-track interactions was just emerging, and

Figure 6-16

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, High-Speed

Ground Transportation for America (Washington, DC: 1997).

Projected Growth in Passenger-Miles Outside the Northeast Corridor:

1975-2025

Figure 6-10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Millions of passenger-miles

Washington–

Charlotte, NC

Chicago–

Detroit

Pacific

Northwest

Los Angeles–

San Diego

1975

2000

2025
6-22

Box 6-6

(continued on next page)

typical, state-of-the-art rail safety technology entailed improved visibility of locomotives and

audible horn signals at intersections.

More than half of the nation’s intercity passenger service had been discontinued four years

earlier. Amtrak, successor to the private railroads for intercity passenger service, was

purchasing locomotives that could be readily put into freight service when passenger train

service ended. Self-propelled, electric Metroliner cars were in use on the Northeast Corridor,

and a few Turbotrains were in service for medium-speed runs on a few passenger corridors,

but these required excessive maintenance.

Today, typical locomotives produced are 6,000 horsepower diesel-electrics with alternating

current (AC) traction motors. The typical freight car has a 125-ton carrying capacity, and

larger cars are being considered; many of the new freight cars have aluminum car bodies.

Continuous welded rail is in place on virtually all mainlines, and concrete ties have been

installed on the heaviest density lines. Additionally, half of the rail network is now

signalized. Unit trains carry nearly half of the freight revenue ton-miles.

Amtrak has invested in new, high-speed trainsets that are capable of providing 150-mph

service on the Northeast Corridor between Washington and Boston [USDOT FRA 2000c]. A

number of states, including California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Ohio,

Oregon, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin are establishing high-speed passenger

corridors on existing rail lines. States also are increasingly pursuing the development of new

high-speed corridor services to reduce congestion on highways and at airports. The result is a

greater combination of freight and passenger trains on common tracks, raising new safety

concerns.

A key solution for many of these issues is digital communication technologies. The USDOT

and the railroad industry are examining ways to develop Intelligent Railroad Systems that

would incorporate the newest digital communications technologies into train control, braking

systems, grade crossings, and defect detection (box 6-6). The new communications-based

train control systems are a key element in making the railroad system safer and new intercity

passenger services both safe and economically viable. New electronic sensors and

transmission systems will help railroads achieve the long sought-after goal of advanced

detection of hazardous conditions in equipment and track.

Intelligent Railroad System Technologies

Nationwide Differential Global Positioning System (NDGPS), an augmentation of the GPS, provides

one-to-two-meter positioning accuracy to receivers. NDGPS receivers will be placed on locomotives

and maintenance-of-way vehicles, and their locations will be transmitted back to control centers

over a digital data link communications network. NDGPS is now operational for more than 80

percent of the continental United States and is scheduled to be fully operational in 2004.

Positive Train Control (PTC) systems are integrated command, control, communications, and

information systems for controlling train movements with safety, precision, and efficiency. PTC

systems bring together digital data link communications networks, continuous and accurate

positioning systems such as NDGPS, on-board computers on locomotives and maintenance-of-way

equipment, in-cab displays, throttle-brake interfaces on locomotives, wayside interface units at

switches and wayside detectors, and control center computers and displays. PTC systems will

improve rail safety by significantly reducing the probability of collisions between trains, casualties to

roadway workers, damage to equipment, and overspeed accidents.
6-23

Box 6-6 continued Intelligent Railroad System Technologies

Electronically controlled pneumatic (ECP) brakes use an electronic signal along an on-train

communications network to initiate brake applications and releases and, thereby, permit the

simultaneous application of all brakes on a train, substantially shortening braking distance. They

are an advance over current train braking systems that use air to both power the brakes and

initiate brake applications and releases. As with PTC, this technology already exists, but is not yet

widely deployed.

Automatic Equipment Identification tags have been installed on all U.S. and Canadian freight cars

and locomotives since 1995. Electronically reading these tags enables railroads to know the

precise location of every locomotive, car, and shipment at all times.

Wayside equipment sensors can identify defects that can occur on passing trains so they can be

stopped for necessary repairs. Among the defects that can be detected by wayside sensors are

overheated bearings and wheels, deteriorating bearings, cracked wheels, derailed wheels, and

excessively high and wide loads.

Locomotive internal health monitoring systems consist of sensors mounted on locomotive engines;

electrical, air, and exhaust systems; and fuel tanks. These sensors communicate over the digital link

network to permit real-time monitoring of locomotive performance at control centers and maintenance facilities.

Car onboard commodity component sensors can monitor the status of the commodities being

carried and identify a number of car defects. This information can be transmitted over the ECP

brake communications channel and digital link to train crews, control centers, and maintenance

facilities.

Intelligent grade crossings use information gleaned from PTC systems to provide information on

train presence and arrival times to motorists and information on a vehicle stalled in the middle of a

grade crossing to railroad control centers. This information could dramatically reduce grade

crossing collisions nationwide.

Intelligent weather systems, combining a network of local weather sensors and instrumentation with

forecast data, will alert train control centers and crews of hazardous weather and the potential for

dangers such as flooding, track washouts, or avalanches.

Tactical traffic planners produce plans showing when trains should arrive at each point on a rail

line, where they should meet and pass, and which trains should take sidings. These plans complement the activities of PTC systems.

Strategic traffic planners serve as the highest-level real-time control system in the PTC control

hierarchy, analyzing schedule and performance data to maximize safety and efficiency.

Freight car reservation and scheduling systems allow customers to reserve freight car capacity and

routing, allowing railroads to better schedule their cars. These systems, similar to airline reservation systems, reduce shipping of empty cars, and reduce delays to loads and empties at intermediate yards. They also reduce fleet size requirements and improve asset utilization.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, Working Paper on Railroad System

Technology, draft, Washington, DC. March 2000; personal communication, Federal Railroad Administration, Office

of Railroad Development, October 2000.
6-24

Aviation Technology

The U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) is the largest, busiest, most complex, and most

technologically advanced aviation operation in the world (box 6-7). The FAA provides the

NAS infrastructure to support all air operations within the United States and certain ocean

regions. FAA responsibility extends from air traffic control (ATC) to aviation safety and

security and international coordination.

What is NAS?

The National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex collection of facilities, systems, equipment,

procedures, and airports. It includes more than 18,770 airports, 21 air route traffic control

centers, 194 terminal radar approach control (TRACON) facilities, more than 467 airport traffic

control towers, 76 flight service stations, and approximately 4,533 air navigation facilities. More

than 34,000 pieces of maintainable equipment, including radars, communications switches,

ground-based navigation aids, computer displays, and radios are used in NAS operations. NAS

operates nonstop, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Administrator Fact Book

(Washington, DC: December 1999).

U.S. commercial aviation has been growing rapidly over the last quarter century and is

projected to grow even faster during the next 25 years. To accommodate this growth and to

enhance current safety and efficiency levels, the FAA is engaged in a comprehensive program

to modernize the ATC system. This includes replacing radar surveillance systems; modernizing voice communication systems; and introducing enhanced automation aids, data links,

and improved weather systems.

In addition to ATC modernization (which will safely and efficiently move the increasing air

traffic and reduce congestion in the skies), new aircraft technologies are under development

that will allow better use of existing infrastructure capacity.

 During the 1970s, the ATC infrastructure needed to handle this growth in demand also

needed modernization. At that time, the ATC system was a combination of equipment,

techniques, procedures, and skills that had evolved over the previous four decades. On one

hand, it was the safest, most efficient ATC system in the world. On the other hand, it was very

expensive to operate and maintain; expansion capability was limited at major airports; and

adaptability to evolutionary change was constrained.

By 1973, the NAS “En Route Stage A” Phase One modernization had been completed. This

was a decade-long program to automate and computerize the nation’s en route air traffic

control system for commercial aviation. All 21 air route traffic control centers in the United

States gained the capability to automatically collect and distribute information about each

aircraft’s course and altitude to all of the sector controllers along its flight path.

General aviation and military pilots still had to file flight plans at flight service stations and

military operations offices, but computers would then handle the centers’ “bookkeeping

functions” of assigning and printing out controller flight strips. The new computers also had

the ability to record and distribute any changes registered in aircraft flight plans en route.

Eventually, the system was tied in with the new Automated Radar Terminal Systems being

installed at major airports. In 1975, phase two of the En Route Stage A automation program

provided controllers at the 21 air route traffic control centers with new radar displays, which

provided vital flight information, such as altitude and speed, on the screen.

During the last 25 years, the federal government has made impressive strides in its technology

planning methodology and approaches. It has encouraged NAS users (airlines, pilots, U.S.

Box 6-7
6-25

military, and general aviation) to become part of the planning process to ensure needed system

improvements are identified early.

In 1981, the federal government released the first National Airspace System Plan, which resulted

from an intensive 10-month study of NAS needs. The plan described a comprehensive

approach for modernizing and improving ATC and airway facilities services through 2000. In

parallel, the federal government completed the National Airspace Review in collaboration with

industry. This study of the operational uses of the nation’s airspace included ATC

procedures, flight regulations, and the airspace environment.

The NAS plan addressed the problems of how best to

accommodate the increasing demands for aviation

services while constraining costs, recasting the

required technical framework, and replacing aging

facilities. It delineated specific improvements to

facilities and equipment and described needed

research and development to support NAS. Particular

emphasis focused on terminal and en route air traffic

control, flight service stations and weather services,

ground-to-air services, and interfacility communications, as well as auxiliary services.

In 1991, the annual Capital Investment Plan was

introduced to replace the National Airspace System Plan.

The Capital Investment Plan incorporated National

Airspace System Plan projects, more than 86 percent of

which had been completed or were in field implementation by that time. It also added new projects that

were identified as mission-critical. Essentially, the CIP

recognized that NAS modernization was not a onetime upgrade of the NAS, as some had interpreted the

NAS Plan, but rather a phased implementation with a

continuing set of capital investments needed to

maintain and sustain NAS performance in an

evolutionary way (which administrator Garvey termed

as “Build a little, test a little.”) to meet the continued

growth of aviation and the changing aviation business

environment.

Despite the growth in air traffic, only one major new airport has been built in the

past 25 years: Denver International Airport, which opened in 1994. The expansion of

existing airports has been slowed by a variety of concerns, ranging from cost, to limited space,

to noise and other environmental considerations. To better use existing capacity, the federal

government has sponsored an aggressive investment program to carry out the Capital

Investment Plan and modernize the ATC system. As a result, major technological

improvements have taken place in NAS functional areas: communications, navigation,

surveillance, weather information, automation, and facilities and associated systems. The

advancements made in each of these functional areas are discussed below.

Communications: In 1975, the NAS was characterized by vacuum-tube-type electronic

equipment that frequently failed and was costly to maintain. In ATC communications, leased

point-to-point lines for interfacility communications were the rule. These lines were costly

and provided little flexibility. For air-to-ground communications, multiple, overlapping radio

sites and archaic switching systems in ATC facilities impeded controllers’ ability to serve

system needs. Box 6-8 shows some important communication technologies implemented in

the last 25 years.

“It took 45 years to reach a world

fleet of 13,000 jets. That number

should double in the next 16 years. In

the 12 years from 1970 to 1982, the

number of passengers carried by

airlines around the world doubled to

750 million. Sixteen years later, in

1998, that number doubled again to

over 1.5 billion passengers...more

than the population of China. And

by 2016, when The Boeing Company

will be 100 years old, traffic will

double again to three billion. Both

airports and the Air Traffic Management system must contend with

significant fleet and passenger growth

in the years ahead.”

Philip M. Condit

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

The Boeing Company

Aviation in the 21st Century: Beyond Open

Skies Ministerial

Chicago, IL Dec. 7, 1999
6-26

Box 6-9

Communication Technologies

Interim Voice Response System: This system, installed in 24 cities by 1985, made weather

information available to pilots using a touch-tone telephone.

Consolidated Notices to Airmen (NOTAM) System: Activated in 1986, the Consolidated

NOTAM System collects, processes, and distributes messages to aviators throughout the United

States and abroad.

Voice Switching and Control System/Enhanced Terminal Voice Switch: These systems

replaced older, electromechanical communications systems. They provide controllers with

faster, more reliable, and more economical computer-controlled communications with aircraft

and other ATC facilities.

Aeronautical Data Link (ADL): Data link is intended to establish an alternative link between

pilots and controllers to relieve voice congestion and some of the problems introduced by sole

reliance on voice communications. The first phase of Aeronautical Data Link is Tower Data

Link Services (TDLS). Fifty-seven airports/terminals have been completed and operational with

TDLS as of 1997.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Blue Print for NAS Modernization

(Washington, DC: January 1999).

Navigation: The NAS relies on a system of ground-based navigational aids. These aids

cannot provide complete area navigation throughout United States at low altitudes. While the

long-term solution is a complete conversion to satellite-based navigation with greater reliance

on GPS, there have been many interim capital investments to sustain performance. The

current aviation navigation system is comprised of more than 4,000 ground-based systems

whose signals are used by aircraft avionics for en route navigation and landing guidance.

Despite the large number of ground systems, navigation signals do not cover all airports and

airspace. Some navigation technologies are described in box 6-9.

Navigation Technologies

Loran-C: The USCG-operated Loran-C navigation system was adapted for civil aviation use in

1986. Loran-C became a supplementary system for aviation, and the “mid-continent gap” in

navigation was closed in 1991 through construction of several new stations.

Very High Frequency (VHF) Omni-Directional Radio Range: The first of a new generation of

navigational aids was commissioned in 1982 to replace vacuum tubes with more reliable

solid-state equipment. By 1985, 950 sites had been upgraded. Today, this technology

remains the backbone of the nation’s aviation navigation system, pending transition to

GPS-based navigation.

Precision Approach Path Indicator: Adopted internationally in 1982 to replace the older

Visual Approach Slope Indicator, the Precision Approach Path Indicator gave pilots an indication of the extent of their deviation from the intended glide path, rather than merely warning

that they were too high or too low. By 1997, 237 systems were installed at international

runways at U.S. airports.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Blue Print for NAS Modernization

(Washington, DC: January 1999).

Surveillance: Surveillance systems provide positional data of aircraft in U.S. airspace, on the

airport surface, and over the ocean. These are important to prevent mid-air collisions and for

safe aircraft operations. In 1975, NAS surveillance was based on a mixture of primary

Box 6-8
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Box 6-10

(“independent”) radars and secondary (“dependent”) radars, called ATC radar beacons, in

the en route and terminal areas of the United States. In many areas (e.g., oceanic, remote, low

altitudes, and airport surfaces), there was no surveillance coverage. The National Airspace

System Plan envisioned that a new, secondary radar system would interrogate aircraft transponders on an individual basis, paving the way for automatic data link air-ground communications on the same system. This system, known as “Mode-S,” has not yet been fully

implemented. Some surveillance technologies are described in box 6-10.

Surveillance Technologies

Mode-C Intruder Capability: In 1973, the federal government required aircraft flying in

designated areas to carry an improved radar beacon transponder with automatic altitude

reporting capability, as well as the ability to transmit identity codes. This rule was designed to

reduce the potential for mid-air collisions.

Mode-C Conflict Alert: In 1978, the federal government installed conflict alert capability at

selected facilities to give controllers early warning of potential mid-air collisions.

Precision Runway Monitor: In 1989, the federal government began testing a new Precision

Runway Monitor radar that increased the frequency with which aircraft movements were

updated on air traffic controllers’ screens, thereby improving their accuracy and ability to

prevent collisions. Three systems were operational by 1999, and two remaining systems are

due for completion in 2001.

Mode-S Radar: First tested in 1991, Mode-S production systems have been implemented in

144 locations across the country. They provide the foundation for the next generation

Monopulse beacon radars, which provide aircraft position information faster than the older

radar beacon systems.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Blue Print for NAS Modernization

(Washington, DC: January 1999).

Weather: Weather is a critical aspect of aviation safety, responsible for 65 percent of all delays

and 40 percent of all crashes. Over the last 25 years, the federal government has made breakthroughs to achieve significant improvements in weather-related technology.

Perhaps the greatest weather-related progress has been made in reducing the threat of

windshear—which is a sudden and dramatic shift in wind speed and direction. Its most

dangerous manifestation is in the phenomenon of “micro-bursts.” Micro-bursts occur when

severe thunderstorms induce a rapid, downward movement of air that can destabilize aircraft,

especially when they are in their final descent to an airport. The Terminal Doppler Weather

Radar program and the Low-Level Wind Shear Alert System have been very effective in

helping pilots and controllers maneuver around trouble spots. Combined with pilot training

and on-board windshear detectors, these technologies have reduced the threat from

windshear. Some of the weather information technologies are described in box 6-11.

Automation Systems: The NAS is a very large and complex command-and-control system. In

this system, information from the diverse sensor systems (surveillance, navigation, and

weather) are routed to air traffic control facilities by a robust communications system. In the

facilities, automation systems analyze, process, and display this sensor data to controllers,

who then work with pilots and others to establish and maintain a smooth, safe, and efficient

air transportation flow throughout the NAS. Thus, automation systems are crucial to system

effectiveness, and they have been a major focus of investment during the past 25 years.

Automation technologies are described in box 6-12.
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Box 6-11

Box 6-12

Weather Information Technologies

Terminal Doppler Weather Radar: The Doppler effect permits an object’s or air masses’ speed

and direction to be determined. Based on studies conducted in 1983 and 1984, the Terminal

Doppler Weather Radar program was designed to produce warnings on dangerous windshear

micro-bursts at airports. First operational in 1994, Terminal Doppler Weather Radar was

deployed at 43 sites nationwide by 1999.

Low-Level Wind Shear Alert System: First operational in 1978, and expanded to 110

airports, the Low-Level Wind Shear Alert System detects wind changes associated with wind

shear by means of multiple sensors that measure wind speed and direction at several locations

around the airport. It assists in safe landing and takeoff operations.

Next-Generation Weather Radar: Using the Doppler effect, Next-Generation Weather Radar

can “see” inside storms and measure the velocity and direction of wind-driven precipitation.

The entire system of 158 Next-Generation Weather Radars was completed between 1994 and

1999.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Blue Print for NAS Modernization

(Washington, DC: January 1999).

Automation Technologies

ARTS IIIA Upgrades: Beginning in 1976, ARTS III radar installations were upgraded to an

ARTS IIIA configuration to provide radar tracking of aircraft not equipped with transponders.

Completed by 1985, this system enables automatic reporting of aircraft identity and altitude.

An upgraded ARTS IIIE system with greater capacity is now being installed.

Minimum Safe Altitude Warning: First commissioned in 1976, the Minimum Safe Altitude

Warning system was an add-on computer feature that could warn controllers of unsafe

conditions by automatically monitoring aircraft altitudes and comparing them to terrain maps

stored in the computer’s memory.

ARTS II Systems: Designed for airports that did not warrant the more costly and highly

automated ARTS III, the ARTS II, installed at 120 smaller airports beginning in 1978,

enabled full tracking of transponder-equipped aircraft.

Display System Replacement: Begun in 1996 and completed in 2000, Display System

Replacement provides new, automated workstations and color displays for controllers at all

en route centers.

Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS): Begun in 1996 after

termination of the Advanced Automation System, STARS includes new computers,

displays, and software for air traffic control facilities. The first deliveries of partial, new

operational systems began in 1999.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Blue Print for NAS Modernization

(Washington, DC: January 1999).

Facilities: In 1975, there were many individual ATC facilities with large overhead costs.

Consolidation of ATC services in large metropolitan areas can generate significant safety,

operational, and economic advantages. The first Consolidated/Large TRACON Facility was

located in the New York City area, where it serves several major airports. Consolidation also

has been completed in Southern California and is being undertaken in several metropolitan

areas across the country.

The National Air Traffic Control System Command Center was established at Washington,

D.C., in 1970. Periodic upgrades, such as Aircraft Situation Display (1987), Monitor Alert
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(1987), and the Enhanced Traffic Management System (1990), have permitted greater ability to

exercise real-time traffic flow management strategies in congested traffic conditions, especially

during major storms.

Keys to the Future

America’s aviation industry is entering the 21st century with projected increases in business,

recreation, and personal travel. U.S. airlines project they will carry twice as many passengers

within the next 15-20 years as they do today [USDOT FAA 2000]. This increase will not only

be at large metropolitan airports, since the growth of regional jet service also will increase

traffic at smaller airports. To manage this increased load on the NAS, the ATC system and

supporting services require coordinated, long-term technology modernization (box 6-13).

To ensure that ATC services meet increased demand and a changing environment, the federal

government joined with the aviation community to develop a NAS modernization plan that

identifies the capabilities needed by the NAS users and service providers in order to provide

more efficient operations. This plan addresses the need for modernizing, deploying, and

inserting new technologies into the NAS and improving services and capabilities during the

first quarter of this century. The plan focuses on several key areas, which are discussed in the

following paragraphs.

USDOT, FAA

Using the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS), air traffic

controllers are able to monitor incoming and outgoing flights. The

picture shows an ETMS screen display for four airports in the Northeast

region (JFK, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Boston Airports) with

identities of various aircraft in the air space at a particular time.
6-30

Box 6-13

Future Aviation Technologies

In his speech during the Aviation in the 21st Century: Beyond Open Skies Ministerial conference,

Chicago, Illinois, on December 6, 1999, NASA Administrator, Daniel S. Goldin outlined many

new technological developments that will allow aviation systems to meet today’s needs and address

future concerns. Among those concerns are safety, noise, air quality, and congestion at airports

and in the skies. The technologies include:

runway Independent Aircraft, which are “ capable of takeoff and landing on whatever ground

is available – independent of size and direction” and may reduce the need for additional

runways;

Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST) and a wake vortex sensing and prediction system that can

improve the number of safe takeoffs and landings;

semi-buoyant airplanes capable of carrying large loads of cargo;

development of self-diagnosing and self-repairing airplanes that could lessen the occurrence of

repair oversights;

development of planes that are equipped with embedded sensors for full-time and real-time

situation awareness and are able to compensate for pilot stress and fatigue which can reduce

pilot error;

model-based reasoning and neural networks that will analyze abnormalities to help accurately

diagnose problems that may occur during flight;

development of artificial vision— an integrated system of advanced sensors, digital terrain

databases, accurate geo-positioning, and digital processing that will provide a clear threedimensional picture of terrain, obstacles, runway, and traffic, and can help pilots avoid a

number of flight hazards; and

full-scale annular combustors for jet engines that can improve air quality and reduce noise,

which could increase the public’s acceptance of airports in their neighborhoods;

Source: Excerpts from speech by Daniel S. Goldin, Administrator, National Aeronautics and Space Administration,

Aviation in the 21st Century: Beyond Open Skies Ministerial Conference, Chicago, Illinois, December 1999.

Communications: Communications quality and reliability can be improved through

integrated digital communications. This modernization requires replacement of outdated

hardware, better use of the available VHF spectrum, and integration of systems into a

seamless network using digital technology. During the transition, the federal government

plans to continue to support analog communications.

For the past 20 years, demands on VHF spectrum for air traffic services have grown by an

average of four percent per year, saturating the available spectrum in many locations.

Transition to digital radios will effectively increase the capacity of each VHF frequency, by at

least a factor of two.

Controller-pilot data link communications (CPDLC) will introduce data exchange between

controllers and pilots to reduce voice-channel congestion. Data link is also expected to reduce

the opportunity for missed communications or misinterpretations of the messages. Transition

to data link communications will occur gradually as new applications are tested prior to
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national deployment and as users equip with the necessary avionics. CPDLC initially will

provide two-way exchange of air traffic control messages, such as transfer of communications

and altimeter settings that are currently conveyed by voice. Voice communications will

continue to be available. Oceanic and en route use of data link will precede the use of data

link in terminal airspace. Current airport data link operations, called pre-departure clearance,

will continue to expand.

Navigation: GPS-based services can provide increased accuracy, operational safety, and

airport coverage. Over the next 10 years, the navigation system is expected to use satellitebased services, augmented by ground monitoring stations, to provide navigation signal

coverage throughout the NAS. Reliance on ground-based navigation aids is expected to

decline as satellite navigation provides equivalent or better levels of service.

The transition to satellite-based navigation would depend on implementation of WAAS and

LAAS, as described previously in the GPS section.

Surveillance: The NAS modernization plan calls for evolution from current primary and

secondary radar systems to digital radar and automatic dependent surveillance. This change

is designed to improve and extend surveillance coverage and provide the necessary flexibility

for Free Flight. The FAA will continue to use primary and secondary surveillance radars to

detect and track aircraft in en route and terminal airspace.

Surveillance in the future NAS will provide coverage in nonradar areas and include aircraftto-aircraft surveillance capabilities for greater situational awareness and safety. An automatic

dependent surveillance-addressable system (ADS-A) will

provide surveillance of intercontinental flights in oceanic

airspace. Once installed in the aircraft and on the ground, these

capabilities and accompanying procedures will increase

aviation safety and efficiencies while reducing procedural

separation distances, thereby enhancing the airport capacity.

A new avionics capability, automatic dependent surveillancebroadcast (ADS-B), may be introduced that will provide higher

capability surveillance services compared to today’s radarbased surveillance.

Weather: NAS modernization includes improved methods for

collecting, processing, and transmitting weather information

during all phases of flight. The key to reducing weather-related

incidents is to improve pilot decisionmaking by providing

timely weather information. Service providers and users will

simultaneously receive depictions of hazardous weather to

improve their understanding of weather conditions.

Modernization of aviation weather forecasting systems will

replace present-day separate, standalone systems with ones

that are fully integrated into the NAS. The focus is on two key

capabilities:

1. improved processing/display—systems critical to this

capability are the Integrated Terminal Weather System and

Weather and Radar Processor, both of which will be

installed by 2002, and

2. improved sensors/data sources—featuring the Next Generation Weather Radar, Terminal

Doppler Weather Radar, and ground- and aircraft-based sensors.

“Every airplane in the system can know exactly where

it is located and know the

location of every other

airplane. Every airport will

have every runway effectively equipped with precision approach since there

will be a universal satellite

system rather than individual runway guidance

systems. Every airport

system could increase capacity without additional

runways.”

Philip M. Condit

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

The Boeing Company

Aviation in the 21st Century: Beyond

Open Skies Ministerial

Chicago, IL

Dec. 7, 1999
6-32

Avionics: Avionics is the use of satellite-based navigation and digital communications to

improve safety and efficiency. It will evolve to take advantage of the benefits found in the new

communications-, navigation-, and surveillance-related technologies planned in NAS

modernization. With the new avionics, users will have access to many enhanced services that

will help them fly more safely and efficiently. The pace of modernization will be benefitsdriven and dependent on users equipping the aircraft with these new avionics.

Free Flight Phase I: Free Flight Phase I, to be introduced by 2002, uses advanced airborne and

ground based technologies and new procedures to permit the use of optimum tactical

separation between planes, enabling more planes to fly and to take more efficient, more direct

routes. An important objective of Free Flight Phase 1 is to mitigate NAS modernization risks

by deploying operational tools at a limited number of sites to evaluate performance, training

procedures, human factor requirements and solutions, and safety issues. Users and service

providers will have the opportunity to assess system performance, operational benefits and

acceptability, and safely before further deployment. With positive results, each Free Flight

Phase 1 tool will be fully developed, integrated, and deployed to suitable locations. To date,

Free Flight Phase 1 has been a complete success. Free Flight Phase 2 will build upon the

success of Phase 1 and will alleviate congestion over a wider geographic area. The Phase 2

timeline extends from October 2000 through December 2005.

Departures/Arrivals (Optimizing Aircraft Sequencing): Arriving and departing aircraft are

sequenced in and out of the airport by air traffic controllers at the terminal radar approach

control facilities. Providing controllers with tools for sequencing and spacing aircraft more

precisely can ensure a steady flow of aircraft, particularly during peak periods. The objective

is to reduce variability in services and optimize use of airspace and available runways.

Focused on increasing airport capacity, terminal modernization will evolve through the

installation of improved automation systems to provide technology and procedural

enhancements.

With new capabilities inherent in advanced navigation and surveillance technology, departure and arrival procedures will change to reduce or eliminate speed and altitude restrictions

and to allow aircraft to use a greater portion of the airspace around airports.

A new generation of advanced aircraft, using lighter and stronger materials and new

propulsion concepts will replace today’s aging commercial and general aviation air fleet.

They will take advantage of the enhanced navigation, communication, and air traffic control

system described previously.

Travelers will be able to make expanded use of small aircraft and small airports for business

and personal intercity transportation, especially in lower density areas. NASA is working on

the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) initiative, which is intended to provide, by

2022, a system that will enable doorstep-to-destination travel at four times the speed of

highways to 90 percent of the nation’s suburban, rural, and remote communities. It includes

expanding the number of public-use airports that are equipped for near all-weather

operational support of SATS aircraft. SATS aircraft will encompass new avionics, airframe,

engine, and pilot training technologies. These new technologies will create new features and

capabilities that will significantly improve affordability, safety, and ease of use over today’s

aircraft.

The next generation of commercial aircraft will be safer, quieter, and environmentally

compatible, as well as more efficient and customized to market niches (e.g., low fare, business,

and tourist). Super-jumbo, wide-body jets may carry 800 passengers on routes serving the

Pacific basin or major shuttle corridors, relieving air traffic congestion, yet accommodating

growing global tourism demand. Such large airliners will be cleaner, quieter, and more fuelefficient, but will also bring added challenges in security, baggage handling, and traffic

management around airports they operate from.
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Airport complexes (Reagan National, Washington Dulles, and Baltimore-Washington

International; Newark; NY La Guardia, NY JFK International, and Islip/Mac Arthur;

Manchester, NH; Boston, MA; and Providence, RI) serving heavily developed areas should

continue to proliferate, with associated ground access problems as traffic levels rise. Interairport ground shuttles, Maglev systems, short-range air links, and better integrated intercity

services may be used to lessen these pressures. These multimodal linkages, combined with

improved weather forecasting and user-oriented ticketing systems, may reduce overall travel

delays, and provide alternatives for travelers whose journeys are interrupted by adverse flight

conditions.

Environmentally friendly supersonic and hypersonic aircraft with advanced noise and sonic

boom reduction technologies will transport passengers and high value cargo more quickly.

Tiltrotors, quiet helicopters, and other vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) agile small and

light aircraft will rapidly carry and deliver intercity business travelers to the downtown to relieve airports, or to suburban destinations, replacing some corporate jets. These aircraft will

incorporate “fly-by-light” technology and artificial cockpit vision (which fuses radar, infrared

imaging, and video) for all-weather, 3-D situational awareness and the safety that comes with

it.

In addition, tomorrow’s aerospace transportation system must integrate the requirements of

the emerging space transportation industry. Low-cost, user-friendly commercial space access

is the key to the future of global telecommunications, safe navigation for all types of

transportation vehicles, and operations of both civil and military transportation services.

Current activities made possible by orbital platforms will become more inexpensive and

expand: massive transmissions of voice communications and data will occur in real time,

monitoring of changing weather and other conditions at the surface of the earth will improve;

positioning and navigation services will become more accessible; and fleet management and

parcel tracking will be facilitated. Commercial exploitation of space will continue with

expanding telecommunications, new remote sensing applications, and medical complexes in

orbit. There may be the first signs of a premium fare space and tourism industry. The presence

of a permanent space station or lunar base should accelerate these trends.

Manned traffic into low earth orbits should increase substantially. The X-33/Venture Star and

X-34 should lead to single-stage-to-orbit shuttles, which carry payloads directly into space,

return to earth, and then are quickly recycled for their next mission. Low-cost, versatile

launch vehicles, associated spaceports, and payload integration infrastructure will make the

continued growth possible. Currently in testing are commercial launch vehicles with

controlled re-entry characteristics to allow their re-use, and air-launched orbital vehicles

which function as air-breathing space planes. In addition to orbital missions, these new

classes of aerospace vehicles operating sub-orbitally could provide access to anywhere in the

world in less than two hours to transport premium-fare passengers and high-priority freight.

Maritime Technology

Major technological advances have occurred in the 1990s in vessel propulsion, navigation,

positioning, charting, and traffic management. Studies have been conducted to investigate the

feasibility of using fuel cells to provide shipboard electric power. Charting advances include

the use of aerial photography to accurately annotate areas, such as the national shoreline, and

the use of electronic devices and software to replace paper charts. Vessel traffic management

systems route and monitor vessel traffic efficiently and safely through ports and other areas.

Electronic navigation aids use satellites to provide real-time position information to mariners

and to improve the safety of life and property. Following a century of major technological

advances, today’s challenge is to make these technologies compatible across many media and
6-34

among the various modes of transport. Significant technological efforts will continue to be

needed to reduce the introduction of aquatic nuisance species and to mitigate the effects of

cruise ship discharges of sewage and wastewater.

Navigation Aids: Navigation aids can be grouped into two categories: short- and long-range.

In the past, primary navigation was based on short-range aid, which included buoys and

lighthouses, daymarkers, foghorns, and fog signals. Focus was on improvements in

construction and maintenance of existing navigation aid technology. Lightships—unmanned

small vessels equipped with lights—were still in operation, but were phased out in the early

1980s. Long-range navigation systems (LORAN) relying on a grid of low-frequency radio

waves transmitted from ground-based stations located around the world provided accuracy

within one quarter mile for both civil and military air, land, and marine users until the mid1990s. Today, the satellite-based GPS provides reliable accuracy to within a few meters. A

variety of electronic aids, ranging from direction-indicating beacons to satellites, have been

used in radionavigation. The Radionavigation Aids Program, which manages and operates

federal maritime radio aids, provides continuous all-weather navigation capability.

Application of new technologies to navigation and marking systems can improve overall

mission performance by providing alternative, customized cues that allow users to navigate

in a wider range of environmental conditions and situations. In the long term, if such a

system could meet stringent reliability and availability standards, it could be argued that the

physical hardware infrastructure could be eliminated, and the support fleet and personnel

could then be deployed to other critical missions, providing improved resource allocation.

Navigation Charts: A chart is a working document used by the mariner both as a roadmap

and worksheet, and is essential for safe navigation. In conjunction with supplemental

navigational aids, it is used to lay out courses and navigate ships by the shortest and safest

route. Federal law requires all ships in excess of 1,600 gross tons to have and use current

editions of Navigational Charts or Coast Pilots produced by the National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Agency’s (NOAA) Office of Coast Survey. Environmental groups, academia, and

coastal zone planners also use charts and hydrographic surveys.

By the middle of the 19th century, the Office of Coast Survey was using photography to shrink

and enlarge a chart’s scale and had developed a process that allowed engravers to make an

infinite number of copper printing plates from a single engraved master. The 20th century

brought the development of technology to find the waters’ depth in an attempt to identify

obstacles before ships encountered them.

For the 21st century, NOAA is implementing its new Electronic Navigational Charts, which

can meet demands for greater protection of life, property, and the environment, as well as

significantly improve the efficiency of maritime commerce. Using sources ranging from the

USCG’s weekly Notice to Mariners to letters from companies describing cables laid and

channels dredged, NOAA cartographers have equipped each electronic chart with embedded

information about hundreds of navigational aids, obstacles, and landmarks. By the end of

2000, NOAA expects to have 90 Electronic Navigational Charts in circulation, focusing on 15

to 20 critical ports on the east and west coasts of the United States [Gugliotta 2000].

Vessel Traffic Management: In 1972, Congress passed the Ports and Waterways Safety Act.

This act authorizes the USCG to establish, operate, and maintain vessel traffic services for

ports, harbors, and other waters subject to congested vessel traffic. The USCG operates the

Vessel Traffic Service in nine major U.S. ports and, since 1994, has shared responsibilities with

the State of California at the Port of Los Angeles-Long Beach [USDOT BTS, MARAD, and

USCG 1999]. In 1975, Vessel Traffic Service was mainly nonelectronic and relied heavily on

the skill of the mariner and on vessel construction. Today’s radar, closed-circuit television,

radiotelephone, or a combination of these devices, provides surveillance of critical areas.
6-35

The methods used to gather and distribute vessel traffic and marine safety information need

improvement. New approaches are necessary to improve the timeliness of information,

increase overall distribution capacity and quality, and conform to the operation of modern

navigation systems. Fully automated approaches to information distribution can improve

safety, while reducing implementation and operating costs and reducing the communications

congestion on the VHF marine frequencies. The methods, technologies, and standards that

can support full automation of a modern vessel traffic management information service need

to be developed, tested, and demonstrated under a variety of marine conditions. They also

need to be evaluated with respect to their sensitivity and responsiveness to the operational

needs of the marine community.

As part of the Vessel Traffic Management, an Automated Identification System has been

developed. It includes nine shipboard broadcast transponder systems, operating in the VHF

maritime band, capable of sending identification, position, heading, ship length, beam,

draught, and hazardous cargo information to ships and to shore. The system is designed to

reduce the number of vessel incidents in ports and busy waterways by providing ships with

up-to-the-minute data on traffic conditions on the water. It also is capable of handling more

than 2,000 reports per minute and updates as often as every two seconds [USDOT BTS,

MARAD, and USCG 1999].

Vessel Propulsion: The 20th century saw the demise of sailing ships, the rise and fall of

steamships, and the rise of diesel engines. Scientific advances in hull design, the use of bilge

keels, and the adoption of improved ballasting techniques produced more stable vessels. Not

only did new hull designs reduce roll, but diesel engines also kept the vessels headed into the

wind for even greater stability. However, they were not necessarily environmentally friendly.

Research and development regarding vessel propulsion designs were focused on energy

efficiency. Today studies are being conducted to develop fuel cell-based propulsion systems.

These demonstrate the feasibility of reforming marine diesel to generate electric power using

current fuel cell technology. Due to their higher efficiency, fuel cells can generate power using

25-30 percent less fuel than existing marine diesels or gas turbines [USCG 1999]. While it

appears technically feasible to implement such technology, the future development of these

systems for shipboard use remains an issue.

Initial U.S. Navy and USCG studies showed that existing land-based fuel cell systems need to

be made lighter, more compact, and resistant to salt, air and high shock environments before

they are suitable for marine use. Fuel cell developers are reluctant to devote resources to

meeting these unique shipboard requirements until they are persuaded that a sufficient

marine market exists. Federal agencies, such as the U.S. Navy, USCG, and Maritime

Administration, are contributing to this effort. Fuel cells are thermally efficient, have low

vibration and noise levels, and produce low exhaust emissions.

Vessel Construction and Cargo Handling: During the 1970s, intermodal shipping was a new

concept. Examples of new generation ships were barge carriers (lighter aboard ship and

SEABEE systems), liquid natural gas tankers, and containerships. Fast containerships had

capacities of approximately 3,000 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and traveled at speeds

between 25 and 36 knots.

Today’s container vessels have cargo capacity up to about 7,000 TEUs and travel at speeds of

18 to 25 knots [Cargo Systems 1999]. Future container vessel capacity of 13,000 TEUs is being

considered. In order to handle the expected increase in container vessels and their cargo

capacity, port terminals will need to expand and increase productivity of intermodal services.

Sophisticated gate systems are being installed in ports to expedite truck movements into and

out of terminals. The maritime industry is increasingly integrating electronic tools, such as

the Internet, and e-commerce is developing in the industry to better coordinate cargo bookings

and freight management.
6-36

Maritime safety continues to be a high priority as high-speed or “fast ferries” (ferries with

speeds of at least 25 knots) carry more passengers in the United States every year and as the

number of bigger and faster personal watercraft is increasing.

Positioning: Highly accurate and affordable GPS make real-time position information

available worldwide. Just as early navigators needed charts and astronomical almanacs to

derive their position using a sextant and chronometer, GPS and other modern systems operate

in concert with high-precision digital charts.

The DGPS was developed by the USCG and provides coastal coverage of the continental

United States, the Great Lakes, Puerto Rico, portions of Alaska and Hawaii, and portions of

the Mississippi River Basin.

The National Geodetic Survey (NGS), an office of NOAA’s National Ocean Service, manages

and coordinates a nationwide network of continuously operating reference stations (CORS)

that provides GPS carrier phase and code range measurements in support of threedimensional positioning activities throughout the United States and its territories. Some of

these stations also provide meteorological data.

As of 2000, CORS data were available from 191 stations [Weston 2000]. A complete NGS

CORS network is not anticipated before 2004, when other CORS-compatible networks such as

the USDOT-sponsored NDGPS network become fully operational. The remainder of the

stations incorporated into the NGS CORS network will be operated by a large number of

different cooperating organizations to support diverse applications. Non-USDOT

organizations currently contributing sites to the NGS CORS network include several federal,

state, and local agencies, as well as academia and private industry.

Keys to the Future

Over the next 25 years, innovative technologies and new operational concepts will revolutionize the maritime industry and make it safer and more productive. These include

developing and implementing computer-assisted vessel and cargo tracking systems;

advanced navigation aids; remote pollution-monitoring; and other ship and landside,

including port and intermodal system. Effective use of these technologies will be critical to

taking full advantage of the potential of faster ships and more efficient ports now being

developed to serve growing global trade. Leveraging emerging technologies will also be

critical to ensuring U.S. global competitiveness. Overall, maritime operations will come to

resemble a well-coordinated and managed enterprise, akin to aviation, rather than the

traditional image of autonomous ships acting independently on the judgment and intuition of

only their captains.

These improvements in operational concepts will enable the system to deal with a much

broader range of maritime vehicles and services. Ferry service will probably become more

prevalent, to compensate for reduced land available in highly developed areas. High-speed

hydrofoils, catamarans, SWATH (small water area twin-hull) ships and hovercraft will

operate as high-speed ferries in the coastal mega-cities that will have evolved from today’s

east and west coast urban complexes.

Intelligent vessel traffic services, coupled with differential GPS navigation, electronic charts,

and related vessel improvements, will greatly improve the safety and efficiency of the marine

transportation system. Marine security information will be readily available to vessel

operators, integrated into the displays of data from which control decisions are made. Oceangoing vessels will be responsible for a large proportion of international movement of bulk
6-37

commodities, but intelligent control technologies, improved weather forecasting, and higher

vessel speeds will have increased the safety of these operations while simultaneously

improving their productivity. As required by the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, only double-hulled

tankers will be in service in U.S. waters.

The growth of global tourism will lead to more cruise ships of all sizes, linked to plains and

trains through multimodal port terminals. These vessels will carry international and U.S.

vacationers across the oceans and major inland waterways. Some forecast particular growth

in very large ocean liners, carrying several thousand passengers. Advanced super-high speed

“techno-superliners”—the next generation 50-100 knot passenger ships—will be operating

both as long-distance coastal and ocean-crossing carriers. These vessel technologies applied

to tomorrow’s container ships, tankers, and bulk carriers, will help deal with greatly

increased world trade volume by improving the speed of delivery of water cargo. Mega-float

offshore airports and intermodal terminal ports will be coupled with high-speed sea ferries to

solve the airport capacity constraints and better serve the U.S. and world coastal mega-city

hubs. Larger and larger cruise ships may evolve into self-propelled floating resort “cities,”

which can migrate based on changing weather and climate conditions.

References

The Aerospace Corporation. 1997. The Global Positioning System. Los Angeles, CA.

Gordon, S. 1999. What Have We Learned? Metropolitan ITS Deployment. Briefing paper. Oak

Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Gugliotta, G. 2000. E-Charting a New Course. The Washington Post, p. A-7. 13 March.

Hagler Bailly, Inc. 1999. The Market for Emerging Technology Applications in TransportationMarket Analysis and Forecast. Arlington, VA.

McGurrin, M. 2000. Working paper on Intelligent Transportation Systems, draft, prepared for

the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation. Washington, DC.

Proper, A. 1999. Intelligent Transportation Systems Benefits: 1999 Update. Prepared by Mitretek

Systems for the Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.

Available at http://www.itsdocs.fhwa.dot.gov/jpodocs/repts_te/6f701!.pdf, as of September

18, 2000.

Shibata, J. and R. French. 1997. A Comparison of Intelligent Transportation Systems Progress

Around the World Through 1996, ITS-AMER-97-B011. Northridge, CA: ITS America.

Sjetnan, K.C. 1999. Cargo Systems, The Future of the Container Shipping Industry. London: IIR

Publications, Ltd.

Trimble Navigation Limited (Trimble). 2000. All About GPS. Available at http://

www.trimble.com/gps/index.htm, as of September 11, 2000.

U.S. Coast Guard (USCG). 1999. Research and Development Center. Marine Fuel Cell Market

Analysis, CG-D-01-00. Washington, DC. September.

__________. 2000. Universal Shipborne Automatic Identification System (AIS) Transponder.

Available at http://www.navcen.uscg.mil/marcomms/ais.htm, as of September 8, 2000.
6-38

U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC). 2000. Fact Sheet: Civilian Benefits of Discontinuing

Selective Availability. Washington, DC. 1 May.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). 2000. National Civilian GPS Services. Washington,

DC. 21 March.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS),

Maritime Administration (MARAD), and U.S. Coast Guard (USCG). 1999. Maritime Trade and

Transportation 99, BTS99-02. Washington, DC.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). 1999a.

Blue Print for NAS Modernization. Washington, DC. January.

__________. 1999b. FAA Administrator Fact Book. Washington, DC. December.

__________. 2000a. Free Flight. Available at http://www.faa.gov/freeflight/ff_ov.htm, as of

September 3, 2000.

__________. 2000b. Working paper on Aerospace Capacity and Demand, draft. Washington,

DC. December.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) , Federal Highway Administration (FHWA).

1996. Joint Program Office for Intelligent Transportation Systems. Implementation of the

National Intelligent Transportation Systems Program, Report to Congress. Available at http://

www.itsdocs.fhwa.dot.gov/jpodocs/repts_pr/2jr01!.pdf, as of September 11, 2000.

__________. 1998. TEA-21 Fact Sheet. Available at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/TEA21/

factsheets/r-maglev.htm, as of September 11, 2000.

__________. 1999a. Joint Program Office for Intelligent Transportation Systems. Tracking the

Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan Intelligent Transportation Systems Infrastructure in the

USA: FY 1997 Results. Washington, DC. September.

__________. 1999b. Joint Program Office for Intelligent Transportation Systems. Measuring ITS

Deployment and Integration, Version 2. Washington, DC. January.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). 1997.

High-Speed Ground Transportation for America. September. Available at http://

www.fra.dot.gov/doc/hsgt/cfs/, as of September 1, 2000.

__________. 2000a. Magnetic Levitation (MAGLEV). Available at http://www.fra.dot.gov/o/

hsgt/maglev.htm, as of September 1, 2000.

__________. 2000b. Working paper on High Speed Ground Transportation, draft.

Washington, DC.

__________. 2000c. Working paper on Railroad System Technology, draft. Washington, DC.

U.S. General Accounting Office (USGAO). 1997. Urban Transportation: Challenges to Widespread

Deployment of Intelligent Transportation Systems, Report to Congressional Committees.

Washington, DC. February.

Weston, N. 2000. Data from National Geodetic Survey and CORS Electronic Newsletter.

Available at http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/CORS/information1/, as of September 1, 2000.
National Security

chapter 7

“In the future, we envision that our transportation system will remain

ready to exceed our national security requirements in three critical areas: ready to exceed our national security requirements in three critical areas:

military—to assure access and defense mobilization; economic—to

ensure economic viability; and public security and safety—to exceed

the citizen’ the citizen’s expectations by maximizing security, enhancing public

protection, and controlling illegal drug traf protection, and controlling illegal drug trafficking.”

Vision of the National Security Roundtable

2025 Visioning Session, Aug. 3, 2000

“Our safety programs protect us from accidental harm; our national “Our safety programs protect us from accidental harm; our national

security programs protect us from deliberate harm.”

Mortimer Downey

Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Transportation

Feb. 7, 2000

7-1

National Security

chapter 7

Transportation is inextricably linked to the security of our nation and its citizens. Supporting our armed forces and minimizing the transportation system’s vulnerability to intentional

disruption, damage, or exploitation are crucial elements of the U.S. Department of

Transportation’s (USDOT’s) national security objective. Keeping the nation’s transportation

system operating efficiently to support national defense requirements and to assist in disaster

response and recovery efforts, without interrupting the flow of people and goods, is expected

to be a major focus over the next 25 years.

During the last quarter century, U.S. armed forces have shifted from just anticipating a

possible global conflict with a dangerous and powerful adversary to being prepared for rapid

deployment in localized military and humanitarian efforts as well.

At the same time, the U.S. national security leadership has decided to

station fewer permanent U.S. troops in foreign countries, increasing

reliance on reserve forces. This new role for the military creates

different demands on our transportation system.

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact transformed

the world by eliminating the Soviet conventional war threat to

Europe and dramatically reducing the strategic nuclear threat to the

United States. However, regional instability, drug trafficking, international terrorism, information warfare, and the random use of

weapons of mass destruction emerged as principal threats to our

national security.

Since the end of the Cold War, many regions of the world have

suffered violent intrastate or ethnic conflicts that have undermined

regional stability. Pursuant to our interests and those of the international community, the United States has selectively responded to

these complex emergencies with diplomatic, humanitarian, economic, and, sometimes, military responses. The chosen action

reflects a careful balance of maximizing security while facilitating

commerce.

The Department conducts a wide range of peacetime engagements

with foreign democracies, in support of U.S. foreign policy, to help those nations build the

security and transportation infrastuctures critical to their survival. The agencies of the

Department provide support through cooperative assistance to help nations establish or

improve critical infrastructure elements such as radionavigation, command and control,

disaster response, maintenance, search and rescue, and law enforcement.

Homeland security is an element of national security. While the domain of national security

is global, the domain of homeland security is primarily limited to our exclusive economic

zone inward to the United States and its territories. Homeland security protects our homeland and citizens against an array of national security threats; it comprises three principal

components—homeland defense, border protection, and sovereignty preservation.

“We have pursued a

concerted national and

international strategy

against terrorism on three

fronts: first, beyond our

borders, by working more

closely than ever with our

friends and allies; second,

here at home, by giving law

enforcement the most

powerful counterterrorism

tools available; and, third,

in our airports and airplanes

by increasing aviation

security.”

President William J. Clinton

George Washington University

Aug. 5, 1996
7-2

The nation’s ability to meet the security challenges of the 21st century depends heavily on the

flexibility, responsiveness, and capabilities of our transportation infrastructure. To that end,

the USDOT has developed the following goals:

1. reduce the vulnerability of the transportation system and its users to crime and

terrorism,

2. increase the capability of the transportation system to meet the national defense

needs,

3. reduce the flow of illegal drugs entering the United States,

4. reduce illegal incursions into our sovereign territory,

5. reduce the flow of illegal migrants entering the United States,

6. increase support for United States interests in promoting regional stability, and

7. reduce transportation-related dependence on foreign fuel supplies.

Force Deployment

The ability to maintain strong, capable forces throughout the world, backed by flexible,

strategic, deployable forces, makes the United States a major stabilizing factor in international

affairs. Transportation helps provide vital strategic mobility of materials and forces in times of

national emergency.

One of the first military actions undertaken in a conflict is force deployment or “projection”—

moving troops and equipment. Force projection relies on three components: sealift, airlift, and

ground transportation. The importance of the key transportation role was demonstrated

during Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm (1990-1991). The United States mobilized and

shipped hundreds of thousands of troops and their supporting weapons, equipment, and

supplies to the Persian Gulf in a matter of months, and then returned these personnel and

cargo to their home bases. The USDOT mobilized and coordinated the public and private

transportation resources and systems necessary to accomplish this feat in the time required to

make the operation a success [A. Strauss-Weider, Inc. 1999]. Vital, small-scale support also

was needed for peacekeeping activities in Bosnia, Kosovo, Haiti, and Somalia, as well as for

U.S. troops engaged in regional armed conflicts in Grenada and Panama.

The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) facilitates the safe, efficient, and secure maritime embarkation of

troops and equipment here at home. Overseas, U.S. Coast Guard Port Security Units (PSUs)

support military operations worldwide by providing waterborne and limited land-based

protection for shipping and critical port facilities within the waters of a port or harbor. In

times of conflict, PSUs conduct operations in conjunction with Harbor Defense Commands,

Mobile Inshore Undersea Warfare Units, Explosive Ordnance Disposal detachments and other

U.S. or coalition rear area forces.

Sealift

The ability of the United States to respond unilaterally to military emergencies requires

adequate U.S.-controlled maritime shipping capacity [USDOT MARAD 1999]. Since the end

of the Cold War, increased globalization and consolidation of maritime shipping companies

have reduced the number of U.S.-flagged commercial carriers. Nevertheless, nearly 80 percent

of the military cargo transported during the Persian Gulf conflict was carried on U.S.-flag

ships [USDOT MARAD 1998]. More than 30 percent of the cargo carried on U.S.-flag ships

was transported aboard commercial vessels as a part of normal operations or under timecharter to the Department of Defense (DOD) without disruption to regular commercial service

[USDOT MARAD 1998].
7-3

There are several programs and acts that help the

United States maintain a U.S.-flag merchant fleet

capable of supporting economic and national

security in times of political or economic turmoil:

The Maritime Security Program (MSP) provides

annual funding for nearly 50 vessels, owned by

private operators, to provide emergency sealift

and related services to DOD. Table 7-1 shows

the current breakdown of MSP participants.

The Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement

(VISA) is an emergency preparedness pro-gram

that makes commercial transportation systems

available to DOD during war or other national

emergencies (table 7-2).

The National Defense Reserve Fleet (NDRF)

supports DOD during national emergencies

and consists of U.S. vessels strategically docked

throughout the United States. The number of

ships in the NDRF has declined since 1975

(figure 7-1) and today comprises 257 ships

[USDOT MARAD 2000a], 90 of which are

Ready Reserve Force (RRF) ships [USDOT

MARAD 2000b].

The RRF ships provide crucial sealift support

during armed conflicts and humanitarian

efforts, and can be tendered to the Navy’s

Military Sealift Command in 4, 5, 10, 20, or 30

days, depending on their location and assigned

readiness priority [Hart 1999]. High-priority

RRF vessels, those with four- or five-day status,

are located at outport berths near military

loading facilities and have civilian maintenance crews to assure the fastest possible

Maritime Security Program (MSP) Participants

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, Office of Sealift

Support, personal communication (Washington, DC: March 1999).

Table 7-1

Participants

American Ship Management, LLC

Central Gulf Lines, Inc.

Crowley Maritime Corp.

Farrell Lines, Inc.

First American Bulk Carrier Corp.

First Ocean Bulk Carriers Corp., I, II, & III

Maersk Line, Ltd.

OSG Car Carriers, Inc.

Sea-Land Service, Inc.

Waterman Steamship Corp.

Vessels

container ships

roll-on/roll-off vessels

container roll-on/roll-off vessels

container ships

container ships

container ships

container ships

roll-on/roll-off vessel

container ships

Lighter aboard ship (LASH)

 (barge-carrying ship)

9

3

3

3

2

3

4

1

15

4

Total 47 vessels

Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement

(Fiscal year 1999 participants)

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime

Administration, Office of Sealift Support, personal

communication (Washington, DC: March 1999).

Table 7-2

Alaska Cargo Transport, Inc.

American Auto Carriers, Inc.

American Automar, Inc.

American President Lines, Ltd.

American Ship Management, LLC*

Central Gulf Lines, Inc.*

Crowley American Transport, Inc.*

Crowley Maritime Services

Dixie Fuels II, Ltd.

Double Eagle Marine

Farrell Lines, Inc.*

First American Bulk Carrier Corp.*

Foss Maritime Company

Lyndon

Lykes Lines Ltd., LLC

Maersk Line, Ltd.*

Matson Navigation Company, Inc.

Maybank Shipping Company, Inc.

McAllister Towing & Transportation

Moby Marine Corp.

NPR, Inc.

OSG Car Carriers, Inc.*

Osprey Shipholding Corporation, LLC

Resolve Towing & Salvage, Inc.

Sea-Land Service, Inc.

Seacor Marine International, Inc.

Sealift, Inc.

Smith Maritime

Totem Ocean Trailer Express, Inc.

Trailer Bridge, Inc.

Trico Marine Operators, Inc.

Troika International, Ltd.

Van Ommeren Shipping (USA), LLC

Waterman Steamship Corp.*

Weeks Marine, Inc.

* Denotes Maritime Security Program operators.
7-4

activation. Fourteen U.S. commercial ports are designated by DOD as strategically

important for the movement of military equipment and supplies (figure 7-2). As outlined

in USDOT/DOD Memorandum of Agreement on Port Readiness, a number of agencies

are involved in the operation of militarized ports and port facilities during war or national crises. Included among these are the USCG (e.g. harbor defense, port security, port

safety and vessel traffic management), DOD’s Transportation Command (Military Sealift

Command and Military Traffic Management Command), the Army Corps of Engineers

National Defense Reserve Fleet: 1975-99

Figure 7-1

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, Marad ‘99 (Washington, DC:

May 2000). Number of ships

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

1975 1991 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1993 1987 1989 1997 1999 1995

National Port Readiness Network: 2000

Figure 7-2

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, available at

http://www.marad.dot.gov/nprn/index.html, as of July 2000.

PUGET SOUND

Seattle, Tacoma,

Indian Island

SAN FRANCISCO BAY

Oakland, Concord

LA/LONG BEACH

Long Beach, 

Port Hueneme

SAN DIEGO

CORPUS CHRISTI PORT ARTHUR

Beaumont

NEW YORK/

NEW JERSEY

HAMPTON ROADS

Norfolk, Newport 

News

WILMINGTON

MOTSU

Wilmington,

Morehead City

CHARLESTON

SAVANNAH

JACKSONVILLE

HONOLULU

Pearl Harbor
7-5

(channel maintenance and wreck removal) and the Maritime Administration (contractual

arrangements). Local Port Readiness Committees, chaired by USCG Captains of the Port,

provide effective coordination at the executive level.

To increase the size of our U.S.-flag fleet, the President’s National Shipbuilding Initiative

(NSI) is being implemented through the Maritime Guarantee (Title XI) program. Under the

NSI, the Title XI program was expanded to include financing for exporting vessels constructed in U.S. shipyards and

modernizing U.S. shipyard facilities.

As mentioned in Chapter 4, the number of U.S.-flag ships has

been declining, and the nation’s shipbuilding capacity has

fallen. National security considerations might require increasing the number of U.S.-flag ships of the dry bulk fleet, increasing

jobs for U.S. merchant mariners, and increasing the percentage

of U.S. foreign commerce carried on U.S.-flag vessels in order to

maintain the economic viability of our U.S. merchant fleet as

well as its availability for national security use.

Airlift

Airlift is both the means of delivery and the sustainable lifeline

for troops until sea lines of communication can be established.

A significant part of the nation’s mobility resource is the Civil

Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF)—aviation’s equivalent of the MSP.

Selected aircraft from commercial U.S. airlines are contracted to

CRAF to support DOD emergency airlift requirements should

airlift needs exceed military aircraft capabilities. The CRAF has

three main segments: international airlift, national airlift, and

aeromedical evacuation. The international segment is divided

into long- and short-range sections, and the national segment

into domestic and Alaskan sections.

To belong to CRAF, commercial airlines contract to activate their

aircraft, as needed, to support CRAF segments. To provide

incentives for civil carriers to commit aircraft to the CRAF

program, Air Mobility Command (AMC) awards peacetime

airlift contracts to civilian airlines that offer aircraft to the CRAF.

The International Airlift Services contract is the largest of these.

For fiscal year 1999, the guaranteed portion of the contract is

$345 million, and AMC estimated that throughout fiscal year

1999, it would also award more than $362 million in

nonguaranteed business. Carriers also must commit and

maintain at least four complete crews for each aircraft [USAF

1999]. As of October 1, 1998, 35 carriers and 657 aircraft were

enrolled in CRAF (table 7-3).

Ground Transportation

The nation’s rail and highway systems play critical roles in the

movement of military equipment and personnel during peacetime and, particularly, in wartime. When a contingency arises,

huge amounts of military equipment and personnel are moved

expeditiously from various continental U.S. (CONUS)-based

military installations to various seaports and airports. Most of

this equipment is convoyed over U.S. highways.

Source: U.S. Department of the Air Force

website, USAF Fact Sheet, May 1999.

Table 7-3

Long-Range International

Air Transport International

American International Airways

American Airlines

American Trans Air

Arrow Air

Continental Airlines

Delta Airlines

DHL Airways

Emery Worldwide

Evergreen International

Federal Express Airlines

Fine Airlines

North American Airlines

Northwest Airlines

Polar Air Cargo

Sun Country Airlines

Tower Air

Trans Continental Airlines

United Airlines

United Parcel Service

World Airways

Short-Range International

Alaska Airlines

American Trans Air

DHL Airways

Evergreen International

Express One

Miami Air International

Sun Country Airlines

Sun World

US Airways Shuttle

Aeromedical Evacuation

Delta Airlines

US Airways

Domestic

America West Express

Reno Air

Southwest Airlines

Alaskan

Northern Air Cargo

Reeve Aleutian

Lynden Air Cargo

Members of the Civil

Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF)
7-6

The Strategic Highway Network (STRAHNET) system of public highways forms a key component of U.S. strategic defense policy, providing access, continuity, and emergency transport of

personnel and equipment in times of peace and war. The 61,000-mile system comprises about

45,400 miles of Interstate and defense highways and 15,600 miles of other important public

highways.

STRAHNET is complemented by about 1,700 miles of STRAHNET Connectors—additional

highway routes linking more than 200 important military installations and ports to the network.

These routes are typically used when moving personnel and

equipment during mobilization or deployment and generally

terminate at the port boundary or installation gate. It is these

routes where infrastructure deficiencies are most likely to occur

because connector roads tend to be secondary

facilities. Therefore, STRAHNET Connectors are a subject of

continuous scrutiny and emphasis for the transportation community.

Together, STRAHNET and STRAHNET Connectors define the

minimum public highway network needed to support defense

emergencies. Because of national security importance, the

Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 and the

National Highway System Designation Act of 1995 provided for

inclusion of STRAHNET and important STRAHNET Connectors

in the 161,000-mile National Highway System (NHS). Federal

oversight ensures optimum maintenance levels for the NHS and assures that roads can support

emergency deployment. With DOD’s current emphasis on CONUS-based military units, the

NHS will play an increasingly important role in future deployment scenarios.

In today’s environment, the most important STRAHNET and Connector routes support the

movement of Army and Marine Corps troops and equipment between the Power Projection

Platforms (PPPs) and embarkation seaports. The majority of the Army and Marine Corps units

will ultimately mobilize and deploy from PPP sites (figure 7-3).

The Military Traffic Management Command Transportation Engineering Agency (MTMCTEA)

administers the Highways for National Defense Program on behalf of the U.S. Transportation

Command. MTMCTEA works with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to identify

important defense highways and ensure that the infrastructure is able to support a defense

emergency. Current initiatives involve documenting the condition and needs of PPP deployment

routes.

Over the next few decades, the demand for personal travel and goods movement is expected to

increase significantly. This increase in travel demand could impact defense mobility because of

conflicts between military traffic and the demand for movement of people and goods. These

conflicts be reduced, however, by the use of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) technologies

for communicating real-time information to users that will provide deployment officials with

route guidance. The ITS system will use the existing highway and rail databases, be Internet

accessible, capable of using video logs and remote sensing satellite imagery, and provide realtime information on traffic conditions, road closures, construction, and weather. The military

will evolve into highly mobile, light, lethal forces that will reduce the current bridge, tunnel, and

roadway structural requirements for tanks and other heavy equipment.

Vulnerability

One of USDOT’s national security strategic goals is to reduce the vulnerability and consequences of intentional harm to the entire transportation system and its users. Such vulnerability

exists in every country’s transportation infrastructure. In the last quarter century, there have

been intentional harmful attacks against every transportation mode in the United States,

“The National Highway

System is essential to our

ability to move equipment

and personnel in support of

contingencies or peacekeeping efforts anywhere in

the world.”

Lt. Gen. Kenneth R. Wykle, USA,

Deputy Commander in Chief, U.S.

Transportation Command,

Mar. 2, 1997
7-7

especially against the aviation system during the 1970s and 1980s. The visibility of aviation

operations as symbols of national pride, the high loss of life that results from such incidents,

and instantaneous worldwide media coverage makes aviation systems a favorite target of

terrorists. The complex nature of protecting aviation from such attacks is discussed in the

Threats to Aviation Security section of this chapter. The following section, Threats to Infrastructure Security, provides a discussion of all other transportation modes.

Threats to Infrastructure Security

To respond effectively, transportation security officials strive to identify threats and determine

the vulnerability of transportation systems and to deter attacks through effective security

enhancements.

The number of international terrorism incidents peaked in the mid-1980s (figure 7-4), led by a

shift in terrorist tactics from hijackings to vehicle bombings, assassinations, and kidnappings

in the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America.

During the mid-1980s, terrorism continued to pose a worldwide threat, and the U.S. government upgraded its antiterrorist organizations and resources. Although worldwide terrorist

attacks declined during the 1990s, the number of casualties remained high. Locations of the

attacks showed some marked trends (figures 7-5 and 7-6), which reveals that North America

had the fewest terrorist attacks during this period.

By the early 1990s, terrorist threats and incidents shifted to transportation targets. Tokyo

subway passengers were poisoned by a release of sarin nerve gas, allegedly by a religious cult;

and there were violent attacks against transit passengers, vehicles, and systems in several

parts of the world.

The Strategic Highway Network (STRAHNET) and Major Military

Deployment Sites: 2000

Figure 7-3

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation

Atlas Database, 2000; and military deployment sites information available at http://www.msrad.dot.gov/

nprn/index.html, as of July 2000.

Fort Carson

Fort Bliss

Fort Hood

Fort Lewis

Camp Pendleton

Fort Benning

Fort Stewart

Fort Drum

Fort Dix

Fort Eustis

Fort Bragg

Camp Lejeune

Fort Campbell

Fort McCoy

Fort Sill

Fort Riley

Fort Polk

STRAHNET Links and Connectors

Major Military Deployment Sites

U.S. Interstate
7-8

According to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), in the 1990s, U.S. terrorist incidents

(actual, suspected, and prevented) varied from a low of one in 1994 to a high of 25 in 1997

(figure 7-7). The types of incidents and culprits varied during these years. In the early 1990s,

bombings and arson predominated. By the late 1990s, letter bombs and large-scale vehicle

bombs became the major concern, particularly following the Oklahoma City incident in 1995.

Antigovernment organizations and “hate” groups were increasingly linked to these events.

Worldwide, transportation and transportation infrastructure are increasingly becoming

targets of violent attacks by both terrorist and criminal elements. In 1998, there were 1,033

violent incidents against transportation worldwide, which was an increase of nearly 20 percent over the previous year and an increase of 107 percent since 1995 [USDOT OST OIS 1999].

Figure 7-8 shows worldwide violent attacks, by mode, in 1998, while figure 7-9 shows worldwide violent attacks against transportation, by region, for that same year. Many of these

attacks against transportation were intended to cause mass casualties [USDOT OST OIS

1999].

Worldwide Casualties Due to International Terrorism: 1993-98

(Annual totals)

Figure 7-5

Source: U.S. Department of State, Patterns of Global Terrorism 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999), appendix C. Number of casualties

1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1997

1,000

0

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Worldwide International Terrorist Attacks: 1979-99

Figure 7-4

Source: U.S. Department

of State, Patterns of

Global Terrorism 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999),

appendix C.

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Number of attacks

1979 1993 1981 1983 1985 1997 1987 1989 1991 1995 1999
7-9

Worldwide International Terrorist Attacks by Region and Year: 1993-98

Figure 7-6

Source: U.S. Department of State,

Patterns of Global Terrorism 1998

(Washington, DC: 1999),

appendix C.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Number of attacks

Africa Asia Eurasia Latin America Middle East North America Western Europe

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Domestic Terrorist Incidents: 1990-97

Figure 7-7

Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Terrorism in the United

States– 1997 (Washington, DC: 2000), p. 3.

Number of incidents

15

10

5

0

20

25

30

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Actual

Suspected

Prevented

Worldwide Violent Acts Against Transportation by Mode: 1998

Figure 7-8

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation,

Office of Intelligence and Security, Worldwide

Terrorist and Violent Criminal Attacks Against

Transportation 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999), p. 4.

Highways

24%

Piracy

21% Bus

18%

Rail

10%

Pipelines

12%

Aviation

7%

Maritime

3%

Bridges

2%

Other

2% Subway

1% Tunnels

0%
7-10

Figure 7-10 shows the number of deaths and injuries caused by terrorist and other violent

attacks by mode worldwide. Nearly every attack on trains, buses, and public transit caused

multiple casualties; bus passengers incurred the greatest number of casualties.

In North America, there were 27 violent acts against transportation reported in 1998; none

involved international terrorists. Eleven of the incidents were against rail, including sabotage

and derailment, attempted bombings, bomb threats, and one case of an incendiary device

placed on railroad tracks. The remaining incidents included three bus hijackings; two

planned or threatened attacks against bridges; three attacks against aviation; two pipeline

bombings; and six maritime incidents that involved piracy, threats against cruise lines, bombing, and civil disobedience. Overall, five casualties were reported [USDOT OST OIS 1999].

Maritime piracy attacks worldwide rose 50 percent between 1998 and 1999, and they continue

to be centered in Southeast Asian waters [Parker 2000], where the Straits of Singapore are the

most heavily trafficked maritime crossroads in the world [DOT OIS OST 1999] (figure 7-11).

Terrorist Attacks Against Transportation by World Region: 1998

Figure 7-9

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of Intelligence and Security, Worldwide

Terrorist and Violent Criminal Attacks Against Transportation 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999), p. 17.

Worldwide Terrorism Casualties by Transportation Mode: 1998

Figure 7-10

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of Intelligence and Security, Worldwide Terrorist and Violent Criminal Attacks

Against Transportation 1998 (Washington, DC: 1999).

North

America

Eurasia Africa Western

Europe

Middle

East

Latin

America

Asia

5

10

15

20

25

Percent

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Number of casualties

Pipelines Aviation Bus Maritime Rail Highways Bridges Subways Tunnels Other

Deaths

Injuries
7-11

Worldwide Incidents of Piracy: Cumulative 1991 through 1999

Figure 7-11

Note: Incidents took place in the territorial waters of respective countries.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, personal communication, May 2000.

Denmark

Netherlands

France

Portugal Italy

Albania

Greece

Turkey

Mexico

El Salvador

Nicaragua

Panama

Ecuador

Peru Brazil

Uruguay

Guyana

Venezuela

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Caribbean (1)

Iran

Oman

Yemen

GuineaBissau

China

India

Sri Lanka

Indonesia

Philippines

Bangladesh

Myanmar

Thailand

Malaysia

Vietnam

Cambodia

Taiwan

Papua New

Guinea

South China Sea (76)

East China Sea (19)

Hong Kong/Luzon/Hainan

 Area (51)

Malacca Straits (55)

Malta (1)

Less than 10

10– 19

20– 49

50– 99

More than 100

No data

Total Number of 

 Incidents

Morocco

Algeria

Egypt

Somalia

Djibouti

Senegal

Ivory 

Coast

Sierra

Leone

Ghana

Guinea

Nigeria

Angola

Cameroon

Gabon

Madagascar

Tanzania

Democratic Republic 

of Congo

Kenya

Georgia
7-12

These acts of piracy accounted for 20 percent of all transportation incidents. There were 209

reported acts of piracy/sea robbery committed against merchant shipping interests worldwide during 1998 (figure 7-12). Eighty-eight people were killed in these piracy incidents, an

increase of more than 450 percent from 1997. There is no evidence to suggest that vessels of a

specific flag were targeted in any given region, but 21 U.S.-flag vessels have been attacked over

the last five years [USDOT OST OIS 1999]. The majority of these attacks took place at night

while vessels were at anchor.

There were 122 attacks worldwide against pipelines in 1998, a 15 percent increase from 1997.

Eighty of these incidents were international terrorist attacks, and all but five of the attacks

were bombings. Seventy-four people were killed in these attacks [USDOT OST OIS 1999].

Pipelines are regarded as easy targets because they often traverse many miles of isolated

territory virtually unprotected.

In 1998, highway infrastructure was the most frequently attacked transportation target

worldwide. There were 242 such attacks in 1998, in which 579 people were killed. Eleven of

these incidents were terrorist attacks. Additionally, there were 22 attacks against bridges and

4 attacks against tunnels in 1998. One bridge incident was an international terrorist attack

[USDOT OST OIS 1999].

The increasing reliance of the transportation system on sophisticated electronic information

and communications systems in day-to-day operations is a cause for concern due to the

possibility of cyber-based disruptions of key support services. Examples of these services

include the extensive and growing use of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) and the Internet to

conduct business, air traffic control as part of the National Airspace System (NAS), extensive

use and dependence on the Global Positioning System (GPS) for navigation functions, the

rapidly expanding use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), the railroad signal system,

and the use of Internet-Based Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems to

control modern pipeline operations. All of these contribute to a more efficient transportation

system, but at the same time, these developing technologies make our transportation system

vulnerable to cyber attack.

Maritime Piracy Incidents: 1991-99

(Annual totals)

Figure 7-12

Source: International Chamber of Commerce, International Maritime Bureau, Maritime Piracy Annual

Report, available at http://www.iccwbo/ccs/menu_imb_piracy.asp, as of October 2000. Number of incidents

1991 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 1992 1993 1997

0

50

100

150

200

250

300
7-13

Box 7-1

The Y2K Challenge

The Y2K problem (as it is popularly known), caused by the practice of two-digit coding of years in

computer databases, could have caused serious problems in some of the transportation’s mission

critical systems (e.g., the FAA’s air traffic control system and the USCG’s search-and-rescue and

GPS services). A four-year, $400 million effort by the USDOT prevented serious disruptions to

transportation services as we turned the century and the millennium.

During the late 1990s, the security of the nation’s transportatio system, the potential countermeasures, and the need for improvements were catalysts for the creation of the President’s

Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection. This Commission was formed to review the

physical and electronic, or cyber, vulnerabilities of transportation, as well as other vulnerable

areas of the nation’s critical infrastructure sectors.

The Commission recommended education and awareness programs, research and development (R&D), improved threat assessment capabilities and information sharing, and a national

structure to determine who would carry out these activities and how they would be coordinated. In transportation, the Commission was particularly concerned about two potential

vulnerabilities—satellite-based GPS, particularly if it becomes the sole source for radionavigation for aircraft landings, and the NAS, including Federal Aviation Administration

(FAA) air traffic control facilities.

In May 1998, President Clinton issued two Presidential Decision Directives (PDDs): Combating Terrorism [Clinton 1998a] and Protecting America’s Critical Infrastructure [Clinton

1998b]. The President formalized the role of the National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection, and Counterterrorism as a senior position in the National Security Council

(NSC). New interagency organizations—the Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office, the

National Infrastructure Protection Center, and the National Infrastructure Assurance Council—were established to oversee the implementation of the President’s Commission recommendations. At the same time, DOD designated National Guard units in 10 states to create

teams to train and assist state and local “first responder” agencies in chemical and biological

incidents within the United States.

PDD 63 established the need for a new private-public sector partnership to combine the

resources of both the transportation industry and the federal government to identify new

threats and vulnerabilities emerging from the growing information-based global economy.

The USDOT has the lead in working with the transportation industry sector coordinator in

establishing this partnership and ensuring U.S. critical infrastructures are protected for the

nation’s security and economic well-being.

In June 1999, the President’s National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee, in

the Transportation Information Infrastructure Risk Assessment Report, recommended steps to

increase awareness and information about the cyber threat to the transportation system and

its information resources [NSTAC 1999]. The panel contended that the continued implementation of new technologies made the potential impact of disruptions to transportation systems

even more significant than in the past and proposed expanding R&D into countermeasures.

Collectively with the nation’s defense agencies, the USDOT intends to protect our transportation system by identifying threats, determining the extent of vulnerability to which the system

is exposed, and using effective security enhancements to deter attacks.

In August 2000, President Clinton released the report of the Interagency Commission on Crime

and Security in U.S. Seaports. The Commission’s report identifies threats to our seaports and

recommends a number of measures aimed at reducing the vulnerability of maritime commerce

and the Marine Transportation System infrastructure that supports it. Hearings in the Senate

were held in October 2000 to discuss recommendations of the report and how best to meet

these challenges. The USCG unveiled the concept of Maritime Domain Awareness to help

meet several of the report’s key recommendations.
7-14

Keys to the Future

Terrorism is a growing threat against transportation and transportation infrastructures in the

United States and throughout the world:

Today’s terrorist groups are fluid and multinational.

Growing international support networks enhance the ability of extremists to operate in

the United States.

The rise of extremism is threatening stability in the Middle East and elsewhere in the

world.

The breakup of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact has unexpectedly contributed to

global instability through increased ethnic strife.

Cults, such as the Japanese Aum Shin Rikyo, pose a growing threat.

The World Trade Center bombing in New York, on February 26, 1993, and the Oklahoma City

bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building, on April 19, 1995, stunned the U.S. public.

These incidents make it clear that symbols of the United States and those of its trade and commerce are just as vulnerable to terrorist targets as similar targets in other countries worldwide.

Our transportation system has not escaped the attention of terrorists, as underscored by the

1993 planned bombings of the Lincoln and Holland tunnels and the George Washington

bridge in New York City by the same individuals who bombed the World Trade Center.

Overseas, a series of sarin gas attacks in the Tokyo subway system by the Aum Shin Rikyo

religious cult in March 1995 marked the first large-scale use of chemical agents as a weapon

of mass destruction against a civilian transportation target.

Technology has added to the terrorist threat. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, sophisticated arms and weapons systems are available to terrorists at competitive prices, and there is

an increasing likelihood that terrorists may try to use weapons of mass destruction/disruption (chemical, biological radiological, and information warfare).

Confronting and preventing this new class of threats before reaching our land, maritime,

aerospace, and cybernetic borders are not simple tasks. They require a balance between

security imperatives and the need for a fast and efficient U.S. transportation system, a key

contributor to the country’s overall economic prosperity. The Secretary of Transportation has

laid out a blue print that meets these new global threats head on. The Marine Transportation

System Report provides direction for how we will meet our national security obligations.

The USCG has developed a concept called Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA). MDA is

effective knowledge of all activities and elements that threaten the safety, security, or environment of the United States or its citizens. The USCG is unique in that it is the only federal

agency that operates in both military and law enforcement environments, providing ties to the

national foreign intelligence community (e.g., NSA, CIA, ONI) and domestic law enforcement

databases (e.g., Customs, FBI). This capability, when linked from the Intelligence Coordination Center to other federal enforcement agencies and with USCG stations, aircraft, and

cutters, will provide actionable information that will significantly improve our ability to

address threats before they reach our borders.
7-15

Threats to Aviation Security

The emergence of globalization resulted in the worldwide spread of business affiliations,

customers, suppliers, subsidiaries, and manufacturing sites. More passengers, both business

and leisure, are taking advantage of air travel. This growth in air travel, coupled with potential increased threat, has created concern for the safety and security of travelers.

Worldwide, incidents of unlawful interference with civil aviation, primarily hijacking and

sabotage, have decreased since the 1970s (figure 7-13), while the number of flights,

enplanements, and passenger-miles flown by scheduled air carriers has increased.

With hijackings becoming an all too frequent occurrence in the late 1960s and early 1970s, air

carriers voluntarily cooperated with the federal government on measures to counter the threat.

Providing security is now treated by air carriers and airports as a cost of doing business.

While in the United States there were 142 domestic hijackings between 1961 and 1972 and 8

explosions aboard commercial aircraft between 1955 and 1976 [Harris 2000], only the

September 1976 hijacking at LaGuardia Airport was clearly linked to terrorism.

Throughout the 1970s and into the 1980s, the United States and the world aviation community took action to stop hijacking attempts using a broad range of strategies, including:

more effective passenger and baggage screening,

imposition of contingency or extraordinary security measures in special circumstances,

worldwide use of X-ray and metal detection equipment,

in-depth assessments of U.S. and foreign airport and air carrier security,

establishment of the U.S. Federal Air Marshal Program,

tightened control of access to aircraft and security-sensitive areas,

more R&D of explosives detection and other security technologies,

improved analysis of intelligence on terrorist activities, and

improved technical assistance and training for operators and personnel.

In addition to these strategies, the FAA is considering legislation to improve

personnel selection criteria and training standards for aviation security (box 7-2).

Hijackings Worldwide: 1970-98

Figure 7-13

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Criminal Acts Against Civil Aviation– 1998, available

at http://cas.faa.gov/crimacts/index.html, as of September 18, 2000. Number of hijackings

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1970 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1972 1974 1976

Domestic

Foreign
7-16

Box 7-2

Aviation Security Training

Proper deployment of highly sophisticated screening devices requires employment of trained

operators capable of following procedures and making appropriate decisions. However, this need

is compromised by high turnover rates for screeners due to low wages and a tight labor market.

The FAA’s proposed “Certification of Screening Companies” rulemaking offers the public an

opportunity to comment on selection criteria and training standards and to seek ideas for improving aviation security training. Proposals have been made for the FAA to mandate 80 hours of

intensive classroom/laboratory training and 40 hours of on-the-job training before performance

certification for all airline security screening personnel.

Currently, the FAA and airlines are deploying elements of the Screener Proficiency Evaluation and

Reporting System (SPEARS), a major FAA effort to improve training and monitor screener effectiveness. SPEARS has computer-based training modules, which are effective and efficient methods for

training screeners. These have been installed at 17 major airports.

The other SPEARS component, Threat Image Projection (TIP), is a system whereby artificial images

of improvised explosives devices and other threat objects are presented to the screener during the

performance of normal duties as if objects actually were in baggage. The screener’s decisions are

tabulated and recorded to furnish real-time feedback for effectiveness monitoring and as a training

tool. Approximately 300 TIP systems are being deployed to the 19 busiest airports.

In addition, the FAA provides formal training through airport security seminars for law enforcement officers and airport personnel. Aviation security special agents also provide one or two

hours of instruction in airline training courses. Similar participation occurs in industry associationsponsored schools and conferences.

Source: White House Commission On Aviation Safety and Security, The DOT Status Report, available at http://

www.dot.gov/affairs/whcsec3.htm, as of July 26, 2000.

The vast majority of criminal and terrorist acts against civil aviation during the 1980s took

place overseas [Simon 1994]. The bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland,

during a flight from Frankfurt in December 1988, stimulated the most significant changes in

aviation security since the early 1970s. The Lockerbie disaster turned the world’s focus

toward finding and developing new technologies to detect concealed explosives in passenger

baggage.

In 1990, the Aviation Security Improvement Act strengthened the role of the federal government in civil aviation security. The Act instructed the FAA to fund the development of Explosives Detection Systems (EDSs), establish EDS certification standards, and test and certify

potential EDSs for eventual deployment. Since 1990, both the Office of the Secretary of Transportation and the FAA have upgraded those organizations that handle aviation security. Both

are headed by senior executives who report directly to the Secretary or the FAA Administrator.

The U.S. aviation system has been on heightened security status since 1995, and security

measures overseas have been adjusted numerous times since then. The decision to increase

security in 1995 was based on information provided by federal law enforcement and intelligence agencies, combined with an analysis of the state of affairs at the time.

On July 25, 1996, after the loss of TWA Flight 800, President Clinton established the White

House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security, chaired by Vice President Gore, and

directed that preflight security inspections be conducted on all overseas international flights.

The Commission recommended the following procedures:

Improve baggage checking and checkpoint screening by deploying advanced security

technologies.
7-17

Require certification of security screening companies and improve personnel.

Strengthen security through consortia and partnerships with airport, airline, and law

enforcement personnel.

Perform unannounced, realistic operational tests of security systems.

Require enhanced controls on access and movement in secure areas of airports.

Air carriers bear the primary responsibility for applying security measures to passengers,

service and flight crews, baggage, and cargo. Airports, run by state or local government

authorities, are responsible for maintaining a secure ground environment and for providing

law enforcement support for implementation of airline and airport security measures. All

major air carriers assume operations costs for installed EDSs and other technologies, and pay

maintenance costs to cover service performed after warranties have expired and following

initial maintenance periods. About 100 companies conduct screening at airports in the

United States [65 Federal Register 559], with at least 16 different companies, including two air

carriers, conducting screening at the 19 busiest airports [USDOT FAA 1998].

The FAA has purchased and deployed advanced security technologies, including more than

100 EDS devices for checked baggage screening and more than 570 explosives trace detection

devices for use at screening checkpoints at more than 90 U.S. airports [Flynn 2000]. Voluntary

security consortia have been established at 170 airports. Here government agencies and

airline industry representatives assess and discuss security and work together to eliminate

vulnerabilities. Interagency efforts to assess and mitigate potential threats posed by chemical

and biological weapons and surface-to-air missiles actively continue.

Keys to the Future

The U.S. government works with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to

strengthen international security standards. The FAA is pursuing R&D in aviation security to

provide the technologies and tools necessary to cope with new threats and improve existing

countermeasures. Hardening standards are being studied for new aircraft, and a transition to

hardened containers to prevent catastrophic damage from explosive devices is underway.

Human factors research is being emphasized to aid in identifying threats, interacting with

advanced technology, and determining hiring qualifications and specialized training requirements [Flynn 1999].

Historically, explosives and other improvised explosive devices, as well as weapons concealed on individuals, accounted for a high percentage of all civil aviation security incidents.

Consequently, the FAA is working to improve the detection of explosive devices concealed in

carry-on bags and to do so economically, without introducing significant operational delays.

Conventional metal detectors are generally considered effective for weapons detection,

although other detection means may be required.

Research to reliably detect explosive components and weapons carried by people continues to

be emphasized. The FAA’s R&D program conducts a systematic assessment of checkpoint

security devices and techniques. Based on these assessments, a checkpoint security screening

model will be developed to create a checkpoint architecture for the future. This architecture

will address the mandates of both security and operations and will form the basis for testing

prototype configurations in airports [Roder 1999].

Following the recommendations of the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and

Security, the federal government resumed a practice not used since the height of the hijacking
7-18

threat in the mid-1970s—the government purchase of security equipment for use by privatesector air carriers to screen passengers and baggage prior to boarding. The FAA plans, in the

near term, to continue purchasing EDSs and other advanced security technologies for expedited deployment as part of an overall effort to improve security [Tucker 2000].

In the coming years, the FAA also plans to deploy an increasing number of EDSs and explosives trace detection devices at a steady rate. It also plans to replace every checkpoint X-ray

device in the country with models that feature Threat Image Protection (TIP). The number of

explosives detection canine teams subsidized and certified by the FAA rose from 87 teams at

26 airports in 1996 to 174 teams at 39 airports in 1999. The FAA has canine teams at all major

airports, and growth in this program is expected to continue [Flynn 2000].

The destruction of Pan Am Flight 103 in 1988, the French airline Union de Transport Aeriens

(UTA) Flight 772 in 1989, and the hijacking of Indian Airlines Flight 814 in 1999 are reminders

that aviation security is an international concern (box 7-3). There is a need for improved

security through better screening equipment operated by carefully selected and well-trained

and tested screening personnel [Flynn 1999]. Additionally, R&D can improve explosives and

weapons detection, technology integration, aircraft hardening, and aviation security human

factors.

Ensuring effective screening of ever-increasing numbers of passengers, baggage, and cargo on

more flights without restricting movement remains the greatest challenge for the future. To

overcome this challenge, U.S. airlines must continue to work together and embrace improved

aviation security as part of their mission to provide better service to their customers and a

safer environment for all passengers [Garvey 1999].

Attacks on Aviation System

June 14, 1985: Trans World Airlines (TWA) Flight 847 from Athens, Greece, was hijacked. The

hijacking lasted 17 days before the terrorists released the aircraft and its remaining hostages in

Beirut, Lebanon.

June 23, 1985: Air India Flight 182 from Toronto and Montreal to India crashed at sea after an

explosion in the front cargo hold, probably caused by a bomb. All 329 passengers were killed,

including 22 U.S. citizens. The same day at Tokyo’s Narita Airport, a checked bag being

transferred from a Canadian Pacific to an Air India flight exploded, killing two baggage handlers

and injuring others.

November 23, 1985: An EgyptAir flight was hijacked enroute from Athens to Cairo and

diverted to Malta. An Egyptian commando unit stormed the plane after several passengers were

shot, including three Americans, because Malta authorities failed to meet hijacker demands. A

total of 59 of 96 passengers died in the fire and gun battle.

December 27, 1985: Simultaneous attacks occurred at two European airports in open terminal

areas. Sixteen people were killed and 74 wounded at Rome’s Leonardo da Vinci International

Airport, including 5 Americans; 3 persons were killed and 45 wounded at Vienna’s Schwechat

International Airport.

April 2, 1986: A bomb placed onboard TWA Flight 840 detonated enroute from Rome, Italy.

Four passengers were killed, but the aircraft made a safe landing in Athens, Greece.

May 30, 1986: The FBI and Canadian authorities uncovered a terrorist conspiracy to bomb an

Air India jet departing from JFK International Airport. Five individuals were charged with

sabotage; two were convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment.

(continued on next page)

Box 7-3
7-19

September 5, 1986: Terrorists assaulted Pan Am Flight 73 in Karachi, Pakistan, as the aircraft

waited to depart. After 17 hours of negotiations, the aircraft’s auxiliary power unit failed.

Anticipating an attack by security forces, the terrorists opened fire on the massed passengers,

killing 22 persons and injuring 125 others before security forces could intercede.

November 29, 1987: A bomb on Korean Airlines Flight 858 detonated over the Indian Ocean.

All 115 persons onboard were killed.

April 5, 1988: Kuwait Airways Flight 422 was hijacked enroute from Bangkok, Thailand. The

hijackers left the aircraft 15 days later in Algiers, Algeria, after the Kuwait government refused to

release prisoners in exchange for hostages. The hijackers had killed two Kuwaiti passengers to

emphasize their demands.

December 21, 1988: Pan Am Flight 103 was destroyed in flight by a bomb placed in checked

baggage. All 243 passengers and 16 crew on board, plus 11 people on the ground at

Lockerbie, Scotland, were killed. Subsequent inspection of the reconstructed aircraft determined

that a device consisting of plastic explosives inside a tape cassette player was concealed in

checked luggage.

September 19, 1989: Union de Transport Aeriens (UTA) Flight 772 was destroyed by a bomb

over Chad, 9 months after the Pan Am 103 explosion over Lockerbie. All 171 persons on board

were killed, including 7 Americans.

November 11, 1989: A bomb placed in the cabin area onboard Avianca Flight 203 detonated

over Colombia, destroying the aircraft in flight. One hundred seven passengers and crew were

killed.

Attacks on Aviation System

July 19, 1994: An Alas Chiricanas Airline plane exploded in flight over Panama, killing all 21

people on board, including three U.S. citizens.

December 11, 1994: On Philippine Flight 434, a bomb detonated enroute to Tokyo from Cebu.

One passenger was killed.

December 24, 1994: While on the ground at Houari Boumedienne International Airport, Algeria,

Air France Flight 8969 was commandeered by four terrorists armed with automatic weapons,

hand grenades, and other explosives. The hijackers killed three passengers. French

counterterrorism forces stormed the aircraft at Marseille Marignane Airport; all four hijackers were

killed.

In addition to these incidents, individual acts of revenge or criminal activity are noted below.

December 7, 1987: Pacific Southwest Airlines Flight 1771 crashed after a recently terminated

airline employee boarded the Los Angeles-San Francisco flight with a handgun, shot one passenger

(his former supervisor), the flight crew, flight attendant, and presumably himself. All 38 passengers and five crew on board were killed.

May 7, 1995: A man armed with a semiautomatic rifle attempted to enter a secure area through

a door in the baggage claim area at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport. Unable to gain

access, the gunman proceeded through the terminal firing his weapon. He exited the terminal to a

public driveway, exchanged fire with responding police officers, and was shot three times before

being apprehended. Flying debris injured three people, none seriously. The gunman never gained

access to secure areas of the airport.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Historical Chronology —

1926 to 1996, available at www.faa.gov/newsroom.htm, as of October 24, 2000.

Box 7-3 continued
7-20

Threats to Maritime Security

Our National Security roles go beyond military operations to include activities such as drug

interdiction. The United States has aggressively battled drug control since the 1930s when the

Federal Bureau of Narcotics was established. Nevertheless, the U.S. population today is

becoming the world’s largest illegal drug consumer.

Although U.S. citizens and government officials have been concerned about illicit drug

consumption for many decades, the United States did not begin focusing significant attention

on the problem until the late 1960s. The sharp increase in illicit drug use in the United States

during that decade prompted the government to adopt a policy that remained relatively

consistent for more than 20 years. Starting with “Operation Intercept,” the U.S. government

began a rigorous inspection program along the U.S.-Mexican border in 1969.

Historically, U.S. policymakers have assumed that a key part of the overall strategy to reduce

domestic illicit drug consumption is to reduce the supply of drugs entering the United States

from international locations. There has been some success with this strategy. For example,

changes in opium production methods in Turkey, from opium gum to poppy straw concentrate, made illicit production of opium poppy and heroin more controllable. This

technological change and subsequent enforcement actions by the Turkish and U.S. governments reduced imports of opium into the United States in the early 1970s. A U.S.-supported

aerial campaign in Mexico in the late 1970s also was successful, significantly reducing the

illegal import of marijuana into the United States.

Throughout the 1980s, the “war on drugs” focused on stopping illegal drugs at the source.

Latin American governments were strongly pressured by the United States to intensify their

drug control efforts. By the late 1980s, most cocaine entering the United States was flown

directly from the producing countries of South America into northern Mexico, where the cargo

was transported by truck across the border. However, in response to joint U.S.-Mexican drug

interdiction efforts in northern Mexico, traffickers began to adjust their routes and moved their

operations and staging areas to southern Mexico and neighboring Central American

 countries.

The U.S. military was enlisted in drug control efforts during the 1980s by a sequence of laws

that gradually expanded the military’s role in this effort. In 1988, Congress gave the military

the ability to engage in drug control activities by authorizing them to search, seize, and arrest

outside the land area of the United States.

Today, the U.S. Coast Guard (see box 7-4) focuses on interdicting illegal drugs by using a

“layered” defense, attempting to interdict illegal drugs in their departure zones, in the transit

zones in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and in the arrival zone in the United States. To

do this, they use a variety of surface and air assets.

In 2000, the USCG seized 132,919 pounds of cocaine with an estimated street value of $4.4

billion—the equivalent of about 600 million individual doses. In response to President

Clinton’s National Drug Control Strategy, the USCG developed new techniques and operations aimed at stopping illegal drug suppliers, while other agencies worked on reducing U.S.

demand for the smugglers’ products. The 2000 seizures marked the most successful year in

this effort [USDOT USCG 1999].
7-21

Box 7-4

U.S. Coast Guard

Located within the USDOT, the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) is the lead federal agency for maritime

drug interdiction and shares lead responsibility for air interdiction with the U.S. Customs Service.

As one of the five U.S. armed services, the USCG is a full partner with its DOD counterparts and

operates as a specialized service with the Navy in times of conflict. USCG has five operating

goals: safety, protection of natural resources, mobility, maritime security, and national defense.

Source: U.S. Coast Guard, Lifesavers and Guardians of the Sea, Coast Guard Overview Briefing, December 1999,

available at www.uscg.mil, as of July 24, 2000.

The USCG has enforced immigration laws, as directed by the President and Congress, virtually since the birth of the United States. The USCG’s introduction to immigration enforcement

came with the passage of antislavery legislation in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth

centuries. As the federal government’s only means of enforcing laws on the waters surrounding the nation, the Revenue Cutter Service, forerunner of the USCG, was charged with enforcing the nation’s antislavery laws. The service’s responsibilities increased as Congress passed

immigration restrictions, primarily concerning Chinese immigration, in the mid-nineteenth

century.

The mission first gained high visibility during the first mass migration emergency the United

States faced in 1980 when approximately 124,000 undocumented Cuban migrants entered the

United States by sea in what became know as the Muriel Boatlift. The hazards of illegal

maritime migration were highlighted in 1981 when the bodies of 30 Haitian migrants washed

ashore in Florida. These events led to Presidential Proclamation 4865, which suspended the

entry of undocumented migrants to the United States from the high seas.

Between 1991 and 1995, there was a dramatic increase in the number of undocumented

migrants interdicted by the USCG. During this period, over 120,000 migrants from 23 countries were interdicted, primarily from Cuba and Haiti. In 1992, Executive Order 12807 directed

the USCG to interdict migrants at sea and return them to their country of origin or departure.

In 1994, the USCG was involved in its largest peacetime operation since the Vietnam War,

responding to two mass migrations at the same time—first from Haiti, then from Cuba. Over

63,000 migrants were rescued, mostly from overloaded and unseaworthy watercraft, and

prevented from illegally entering the United States. Illegal migration continues today, but the

primary mode has changed from inner tubes, rafts, and overloaded boats to smugglers using

fast-boats. This practice can be just as dangerous as rafting, however, as illustrated by the

deaths of numerous migrants in 1998-2000 when overloaded vessels overturned.

The USCG has protected U.S. natural resources since the 19th century, starting with seals that

were considered a major economic resource in Alaska for their furs and continuing today with

protected marine resources and fisheries. Since the passage of the Fisheries Conservation and

Management Act in 1976, which extended the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone to 200 nautical

miles, guarding American sovereignty over the richest fishing grounds in the world has been

a primary USCG mission.

Keys to the Future

The National Drug Control Strategy recognizes the need to reduce demand for illicit drugs in

the United States, calling for a 25 percent reduction by 2002 and a 50 percent reduction by

2007 [White House 1999]. Reaching the goal will require continued cooperation between U.S.

government agencies, including the detection and monitoring resources of the DOD. International cooperation, especially between the United States and the nations and territories of
7-22

Latin America and the Carribean Basin, will be pivotal for further strides in reducing drug

flow.

Drug traffickers and migrant smugglers move quickly and adapt new smuggling routes and

methods in reaction to law enforcement presence. Recent record cocaine seizures in the

eastern Pacific indicate that drug traffickers are increasingly targeting southern California

and the southwest border. Cooperative efforts involve sharing intelligence information with,

and providing guidance to, other nations to disrupt the activities of criminal drug and

migrant smuggling organizations and to interdict illegal drugs and migrants in source and

transit countries. The USCG provides assistance to other nations to develop multimission

maritime organizations. This assistance includes organizational management, resource

development, training, and standardization of procedures and interoperability capabilities

that enhance international cooperation. The DOD provides extensive detection and monitoring capabilities to facilitate interdiction operations involving U.S. agencies and their foreign

counterparts.

To successfully reduce the supply of illegal drugs and the flow of illegal migrants into the

United States, cooperative diplomatic efforts also will be needed. International law provides

that, with few exceptions, boarding and searching a foreign vessel in international waters

requires consent of the flag state. When vessels or aircraft are used for trafficking, they often

move quickly from one national jurisdiction to another. Unless prior consent exists to stop,

board, and search such vessels or aircraft, U.S. and other law enforcement authorities can

easily be frustrated in their efforts to interdict traffickers crossing multiple jurisdictional lines.

The United States is party to 21 bilateral maritime counterdrug agreements, 12 international

fisheries enforcement agreements, and 1 migrant repatriation agreement. Several additional

agreements are under negotiation to provide a more effective web of cooperation.

To modernize its fleet, the USCG has initiated a Deepwater Capability Replacement Project

[USDOT USCG 2000], a comprehensive approach to designing and obtaining its next fleet of

ships, aircraft, and communications systems. Technology improvements also will be a key

part of the battle against drugs. These include night vision goggles, forward-looking infrared

systems, improved radar, faster boats, increased fixed-wing assets, and drug detection

devices. The ability to monitor maritime activity covertly is an essential part of reducing the

flow of illegal drugs and migrants and deterring unauthorized fishing.

References

65 Federal Register 559 (5 Jan. 2000) (notice of proposed rulemaking). Federal Aviation

Administration Certification of Screening Companies. Available at http://www.faa.gov/avr/

arm/n99-21.pdf, as of June 28, 2000.

A. Strauss-Wieder, Inc. in association with KPMG Peat Marwick LLP, Louis Berger &

Associates, Parsons Brinkerhoff. 1999. The Role of the National Highway System Connectors:

Industry Context and Issues, prepared for the U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal

Highway Administration. February. Available at http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/

infrastr/nhs/98-06F.pdf, as of June 28, 2000.

Clinton, W.J., President, United States. 1998a. Presidential Decision Directive 62: Combating

Terrorism. Washington, DC. 21 May.
7-23

Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. 2000. Briefing Paper on the DOT

Flagship Initiatives on National Security: Status Report on Implementation of the

Recommendations of the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security.

December.

_____. 1999. Speech before the Global Aviation Safety and Security Conference, Atlanta, GA.

6 April.

Garvey, J., Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1999. Remarks and Talking Points: Aviation in the 21st Century: Beyond Open Skies,

Chicago, IL. 5 December.

Harris, J.W., Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. 2000.

Personal communication. 12 July.

Hart, C.J., Jr., Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1999. Testimony at hearings before the House Oversight Panel on the Merchant Marine of the

Armed Services Committee. 16 March. Available at http://www.marad.dot.gov/

reading_room/announcements/3_16test.htm, as of August 9, 2000.

Parker, J. 2000. Tracking Ships Online. Available at http://www.joc.com/jocweb/, as of June

28, 2000.

The President’s National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC). 1999.

Transportation Information Infrastructure Risk Assessment Report. June. Available at http://

www.ncs.gov/nstac/NSTACXXII/Reports/Transportation.pdf, as of August 16, 2000.

Roder, F.L., Technical Advisor, Office of Civil Aviation Security Policy and Planning, Federal

Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. 1999. Briefing paper.

Washington, DC. 12 May.

Shkor, J.E., Vice Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard. 2000. Testimony at hearings before the Senate

Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight. 9 May. Available at

http://152.119.36.5/test/Shkor1.htm, as of June 28, 2000.

Simon, J.D. 1994. The Terrorist Trap: America’s Experience with Terrorism. Bloomington,

IN: Indiana University Press.

Tucker, C.L., Senior Policy Analyst, Office of Civil Aviation Security Policy and Planning,

Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. 2000. Personal

communication. 6 April.

U.S. Air Force (USAF). 1999. Fact Sheet: Civil Reserve Air Fleet. May. Available at http://

www.af.mil/news/factsheets/Civil_Reserve_Air_Fleet.html, as of October 16, 2000.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). 1998.

Study and Report to Congress on Civil Aviation Security Responsibilities and Funding, page 14.

Washington, DC. December.

______. 1999. Statement on Strengthened Security Measures, Press releases. 20 December.

Available at http://www.faa.gov/apa/pr/pr.cfm?id=958, as of June 28, 2000.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Maritime Administration (MARAD). 1998. A

Report to Congress on U.S. Maritime Policy. May. Available at http://www.marad.dot.gov/

publications/policy98.pdf, as of August 9, 2000.
7-24

______. 1999. America’s Merchant Marine—Supporting America’s Armed Forces. Available at

http://www.marad.dot.gov/support%5Fforces.html, as of June 28, 2000.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Maritime Administration (MARAD), Office of

Ship Operations. 2000a. The National Defense Reserve Fleet. Available at http://

www.marad.dot.gov/offices/press-gm.htm, as of June 28, 2000.

______. 2000b. The Ready Reserve Force. Available at http://www.marad.dot.gov/offices/

PRESS-GM2.htm, as of June 28, 2000.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Office of the Secretary of Transportation (OST),

Office of Intelligence and Security (OIS). 1999. Worldwide Terrorist and Violent Criminal Attacks

Against Transportation—1998. Washington, DC.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), U.S. Coast Guard (USCG). 1999. Coast Guard

Seizes Record Amount of Cocaine Over Past Year, Press release. 30 September. Available at

http://www.dot.gov/affairs/1999/cg1699.htm, as of June 28, 2000.

______. 2000. Deepwater Project. Available at http://www.uscg.mil/deepwater/, as of

August 8, 2000.

The White House, Office of National Drug Control Poilicy. 1999. National Drug Control

Strategy 1999. Available at http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/policy/99ndcs/

99ndcs.pdf, as of August 18, 2000.
A-1

Figure 2-1 U.S. Population: l975-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1

Figure 2-2 Economic Growth in the United States: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-2

Figure 2-3 Federal Budget Outlays and Receipts: 1975-2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3

Figure 2-4 Productivity Trends for Transportation Industries: 1955-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3

Figure 2-5 Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT): 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-5

Figure 2-6 Vehicle-Miles Traveled on Highways: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6

Figure 2-7 Percentage Deficient Bridges of Total Bridges: 1990-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-7

Figure 2-8 Congestion in 68 Urban Areas: 1982-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9

Figure 2-9 Annual Person-Hours of Delay Per Eligible Driver: 1982 and 1997 . . . . . . . 2-9

Figure 2-10 New Technologies Drive Growth of Work at Home: 1990-99 . . . . . . . . . . . 2-10

Figure 2-11 Urban Rail Systems in the United States: 1975 and 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-12

Figure 2-12 Transit Ridership: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-14

Figure 2-13 Amtrak Passenger Rail System: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-16

Figure 2-14 Amtrak Ridership: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-16

Figure 2-15 Enplanements in Major Markets: 1975 and 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-19

Figure 2-16 Domestic Enplanements on U.S. Commercial Air Carriers: 1975-99 . . . . . 2-19

Figure 2-17 U.S. Domestic and International Freight Revenue Ton-Miles: 1975-99 . . . 2-20

Figure 2-18 Large Passenger Jet Aircraft in the U.S. Fleet: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-21

Figure 2-19 Domestic Load Factor for Large Commercial Air Carriers: 1975-99 . . . . . . 2-21

Figure 2-20 Regional/Commuter Airline Revenue Enplanements: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . 2-23

Figure 2-21 Regional/Commuter Passenger Aircraft Fleet: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-24

Figure 2-22 Average Trip Length on Regional/Commuter Carriers: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . 2-24

Figure 2-23 U.S. All-Cargo Fleet: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-25

Figure 2-24 Fixed-Wing Piston Aircraft: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-26

Figure 2-25 Fixed-Wing Turbine Aircraft: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-26

Figure 2-26 Commercial Satellite Launches by Country: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-26

Figure 2-27 Domestic Enplanements on U.S. Commercial Air Carriers:

Projected—2000-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-27

Figure 2-28 U.S. Commercial Air Carriers’ Passenger Jet Aircraft:

Projected—2000-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-28

Figure 2-29 Regional/Commuter Air Carrier Enplanements: Projected 2000-25 . . . . . 2-28

Figure 2-30 Regional/Commuter Commercial Passenger Aircraft Fleet:

Projected—2000-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-29

Figure 2-31 U.S. Domestic Air Freight Revenue Ton Miles:

Projected—2000-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-29

Figure 2-32 Commercial Launches by Country: 1982-2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-30

Figure 2-33 U.S. Domestic Waterborne Trade: 1970-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-31

Figure 2-34 U.S. Waterborne Foreign Trade: 1975-2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-32

Figure 2-35 The St. Lawrence Seaway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-32

Figure 2-36 U.S. Inland Waterway System: 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-33

Figure 2-37 World Container Vessel Fleet: 1994-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-35

Figure 2-38 World Containerized Trade Moves: 1991-2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-35

Figure 2-39 Top 25 U.S. Container Ports: 1987 and 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-36

Figure 2-40 The Largest Container Vessels: 1980-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-39

List of Figures and Tables

Page

appendix A
A-2

Figure 2-41 U.S. Total Waterborne Commerce: 1978-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-38

Figure 2-42 Index of Number of Commercial Trucks: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-40

Figure 2-43 Class I Railroad Rate of Return on Net Investment: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-43

Figure 2-44 Class I Railroad Performance Indices: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-43

Figure 2-45 Railroad Network Showing Volume of Freight: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-44

Figure 2-46 Top Four Largest Carriers’ Enplanements: 1978 and 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-46

Figure 2-47 International and Domestic Yield: 1978-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-48

Figure 2-48 Total Ton-Miles of Freight: 1975-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-52

Figure 2-49 Domestic Ton-Miles of Freight: 1975-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-52

Figure 2-50 Average Cost of Transporting One Ton One Mile: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-53

Figure 2-51 Freight Shipments by Value and Tonnage: 1977, 1993, and 1997 . . . . . . . . 2-55

Figure 2-52 Internet Commerce Revenues: 1997-2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-58

Figure 2-53 U.S. Percentage of Web Users and Internet Commerce Revenues as a

Proportion of World Share: 1999-2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-59

Figure 3-1 Total Fatalities in All Modes of Transportation: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2

Figure 3-2 Motor Vehicle Crash Fatality Rate Per 100 Million

Vehicle-Miles Traveled: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-3

Figure 3-3 Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7

Figure 3-4 Total Traffic Fatalities: 1975 and 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-8

Figure 3-5 Highway Fatalities and Estimated Lives Saved: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-9

Figure 3-6 Pedestrian and Bicyclist Fatalities in Motor Vehicle Crashes: 1975-98 . . . 3-10

Figure 3-7 Alcohol-Related Fatalities in Motor Vehicle Crashes: 1982-98 . . . . . . . . . . 3-13

Figure 3-8 Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) Limits: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-13

Figure 3-9 Alcohol-Related Traffic Fatalities: 1982 and 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-14

Figure 3-10 Drivers in Fatal Crashes with a Blood Alcohol Concentration

 of _0.10, by Age: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-15

Figure 3-11 Legal Drinking Age: 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-15

Figure 3-12 Estimated Number of Lives Saved Each Year by Use of Safety Belts:

1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-17

Figure 3-13 Key Provisions of Safety Belt Use Laws: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-17

Figure 3-14 Estimated Number of Lives Saved Each Year by Use of

Child Restraints: 1978-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-18

Figure 3-15 Motorcycle Helmet Use Laws: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-19

Figure 3-16 Estimated Number of Lives Saved Each Year by Use of

Motorcycle Helmets: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-19

Figure 3-17 Persons Killed per 100,000 Population in Highway Crashes

by Age Group: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-21

Figure 3-18 Crash Rate per 100,000 Licensed Drivers by Age and Gender: 1998 . . . . . 3-22

Figure 3-19 Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT by Age: 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-22

Figure 3-20 Estimated Number of Lives Saved Each Year by

Use of Air Bags: 1987-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-23

Figure 3-21 Maximum Rural Interstate Speed Limits: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-25

Figure 3-22 Fatalities in Large Truck Crashes: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-29

Figure 3-23 Number of Vehicle Inspections: 1984-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-29

Figure 3-24 Out-of-Service Inspections: 1984-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-29

Figure 3-25 Fatal Accident Rate for Large Trucks and Passenger Vehicles: 1988-98 . . 3-30

Figure 3-26 Fatalities in All Transit Incidents: 1990-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-32

Figure 3-27 Transit Incidents: 1990-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-33

Figure 3-28 Total Train Incidents: 1978-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-34

Figure 3-29 Fatalities in Train Incidents: 1978-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-34

Figure 3-30 Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Incident Rate: 1978-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-35

Figure 3-31 Rail-Related Fatality Rate, Including Highway-Rail

Grade Crossings: 1976-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-36

 >
A-3

Figure 3-32 Grade-Crossing Fatality Locations: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-36

Figure 3-33 Highway-Rail Grade-Crossing Fatalities: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-37

Figure 3-34 Number of Highway-Rail Grade Crossings by Active and

Passive Controls: 1990-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-38

Figure 3-35 Fatal Commercial Air Transportation Accidents: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-40

Figure 3-36 Commercial Air Transportation Fatalities: 1975-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-40

Figure 3-37 Fatal Accidents and Fatalities in General Aviation: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . 3-41

Figure 3-38 Fatal U.S. Air Carrier Accidents per 100,000 Departures: 1978-98 . . . . . . . 3-41

Figure 3-39 Probability that Passengers Will Survive an Air Carrier Flight . . . . . . . . . . 3-45

Figure 3-40 Fatalities Involving Recreational Boating: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-47

Figure 3-41 Recreational Boating Accidents: 1975 and 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-48

Figure 3-42 Number of Recreational Boats: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-49

Figure 3-43 Recreational Boating Fatalities, by Cause: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-49

Figure 3-44 Fatalities Involving Commercial Waterborne Transportation: 1975-98 . . . 3-50

Figure 3-45 Lives Saved in Search and Rescue Missions: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-51

Figure 3-46 U.S. Coast Guard Districts and Number of Lives Lost and Saved: 1999 . . 3-51

Figure 3-47 Pipeline Incidents: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-54

Figure 3-48 Fatalities in Pipeline Incidents: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-54

Figure 3-49 Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline System Leaks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-56

Figure 3-50 Reported Hazardous Materials Incidents: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-57

Figure 3-51 Serious Hazardous Materials Incidents and All Hazardous

Materials Incidents: 1990-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-59

Figure 3-52 Actual and Forecast Hazardous Materials Shipments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-60

Figure 4-1 Proportion of Manufactured Goods as a Share of Total

Value of Merchandise Exports: 1980 and 1997. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-1

Figure 4-2 Imports and Exports as a Percent of U.S.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 1975 and 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2

Figure 4-3 U.S. Direct Investment Abroad: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-4

Figure 4-4 Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-5

Figure 4-5 New Automobile Sales in the United States: 1976-95 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-8

Figure 4-6 Open Skies Agreement with the United States: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-15

Figure 4-7 International Passengers Enplaned in the United States: 1975-98 . . . . . . . 4-16

Figure 4-8 Foreign Residents Visiting the United States: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-17

Figure 4-9 U.S. Residents Traveling to Overseas Countries: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-17

Figure 4-10 International Aviation Load Factor: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-18

Figure 4-11 Hull Loss Accident Rates by World Region: 1988-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-21

Figure 4-12 Modal Share of U.S. International Merchandise Trade: 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . 4-21

Figure 4-13 International Freight Revenue Ton-Miles by U.S. Carriers: 1975-99 . . . . . . 4-22

Figure 4-14 Express Carrier Hubs: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-23

Figure 4-15 Shipping Times from the United States: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-24

Figure 4-16 World Shipping Fleet: 1975-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-25

Figure 4-17 U.S. Share of World Shipping Fleet: 1975-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-26

Figure 4-18 World Shipping Deliveries: 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-27

Figure 4-19 Oceanborne Foreign Trade: 1975 and 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-27

Figure 4-20 Country Shares of World Maritime Trade by Cargo Value: 1998 . . . . . . . . . 4-28

Figure 4-21 Top 10 U.S. Oceanborne Foreign Trade Partners: 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-28

Figure 4-22 U.S. Commercial Shipbuilding Orderbook History—Nonmilitary

Ships of 1,000 Gross Tons or More: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-30

Figure 4-23 Total U.S. Surface Trade with Mexico and Canada: 1995-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-31

Figure 4-24 Merchandise Exports to Mexico: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-32

Figure 4-25 Merchandise Imports from Mexico: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-32

Figure 4-26 Merchandise Exports to Canada: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-33

Figure 4-27 Merchandise Imports from Canada: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-34

Figure 4-28 U.S. Surface Trade with Mexico (select modes): 1995-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-35

Figure 4-29 U.S. Surface Trade with Canada (select modes): 1995-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-35
A-4

Figure 5-1 Dependence Ratio: 1950-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-3

Figure 5-2 Additions to the Labor Force per Decade: 1950-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-4

Figure 5-3 Drivers Licenses by Sex: 1975-95 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-5

Figure 5-4 Licensing Rate of Whites and African-Americans by Age: 1995 . . . . . . . . . 5-6

Figure 5-5 Household Vehicle Ownership: 1969, 1977, 1983, 1990 and 1995 . . . . . . . . 5-7

Figure 5-6 Distribution of the Private Vehicle Fleet by Age of Vehicle: 1977,

1983, 1990, and 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-7

Figure 5-7 Personal Travel: 1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-8

Figure 5-8 Commuting Flow: 1960-90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-9

Figure 5-9 Transportation Choice for Trips Under 50 Miles: 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-10

Figure 5-10 Annual Household Trips by Mode: 1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995 . . . . . . . . 5-10

Figure 5-11 ADA-Accessible Vehicles by Mode: 1994-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-11

Figure 5-12 Mode of Transportation by Roundtrip Distance: 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-13

Figure 5-13 Trip Purpose by Mode of Travel: 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-13

Figure 5-14 Vehicle Use by Distance and Trip Purpose: 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-14

Figure 5-15 Female-to-Male Ratios of Long-Distance Travel-Miles

by Purpose: 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-14

Figure 5-16 Long-Distance Trip Making Rates by Age Group: 1977 and 1995 . . . . . . . 5-15

Figure 5-17 Annual Long-Distance Trip Rates: 1977 and 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-15

Figure 5-18 Estimated Percentage of Total State Population Over the

Age of 65: 1975, 1998, and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-17

Figure 5-19 U.S. Transportation Energy Use: 1950-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-19

Figure 5-20 Transportation Energy Use by Mode: 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-19

Figure 5-21 Changes in the Energy Intensiveness of U.S. Passenger Travel: 1975,

1990, and 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-21

Figure 5-22 Petroleum Use in the U.S. Economy: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-21

Figure 5-23 Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices: 1970-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-22

Figure 5-24 Nonattainment Areas for Criteria Pollutants: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-29

Figure 5-25 Lead Emissions from Transportation: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-30

Figure 5-26 VOCs, NOx

, and CO Emissions from Transportation: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . 5-30

Figure 5-27 Particulate Emissions: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-31

Figure 5-28 Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End-Use Sector: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-34

Figure 5-29 Average Fuel Economy of Highway Vehicles: 1975-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-35

Figure 5-30 Transportation Noise Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-42

Figure 5-31 Estimated Population Exposed to Airport Noise Levels of

DNL 65 dB or More: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-44

Figure 6-1 Nationwide Differential GPS Coverage as of November 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-4

Figure 6-2 Federal Funding for Intelligent Transportation

Systems Program: 1997-2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-8

Figure 6-3 The Largest 78 Metropolitan Areas with ITS Deployments: 1997 . . . . . . . . . 6-9

Figure 6-4 Deployment of Traffic Signal Control Technologies: 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-11

Figure 6-5 Deployment of Freeway Management Traffic Control Technologies: 1997 . . 6-11

Figure 6-6 Deployment of Freeway Surveillance Systems: 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-12

Figure 6-7 Deployment of Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) Technologies: 1997 . . . . . 6-12

Figure 6-8 Designated High-Speed Rail Corridors: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-19

Figure 6-9 Projected Growth in Passenger-Miles in the

Northeast Corridor: 1975-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-20

Figure 6-10 Projected Growth in Passenger-Miles Outside

the Northeast Corridor: 1975-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-21

Figure 7-1 National Defense Reserve Fleet: 1975-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4

Figure 7-2 National Port Readiness Network: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4

Figure 7-3 The Strategic Highway Network (STRAHNET) and

Major Military Deployment Sites: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-7

Figure 7-4 Worldwide International Terrorist Attacks: 1979-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-8
A-5

Figure 7-5 Worldwide Casualties Due to International Terrorism: 1993-98 . . . . . . . . . . 7-8

Figure 7-6 Worldwide International Terrorist Attacks by

Region and Year: 1993-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-9

Figure 7-7 Domestic Terrorist Incidents: 1990-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-9

Figure 7-8 Worldwide Violent Acts Against Transportation by Mode: 1998 . . . . . . . . . 7-9

Figure 7-9 Terrorist Attacks Against Transportation by World Region: 1998 . . . . . . . 7-10

Figure 7-10 Worldwide Terrorism Casualties by Transportation Mode: 1998 . . . . . . . . 7-10

Figure 7-11 Worldwide Incidents of Piracy: Cumulative 1991 through 1999 . . . . . . . . 7-11

Figure 7-12 Maritime Piracy Incidents: 1991-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-12

Figure 7-13 Hijackings Worldwide: 1970-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-15

Table 1-1 Forecasts Past and Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-8

Table 2-1 U.S. Oceangoing Merchant Marine: As of June 30, 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-34

Table 2-2 U.S.-Flag Oceangoing Self-Propelled Merchant Vessels of 1,000

Gross Tons and Over: As of Apr. 1, 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-34

Table 2-3 U.S. Oceanborne Foreign Trade Top 10 Ports (1975) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-34

Table 2-4 U.S. Waterborne Container Trade—Top 10 Ports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-36

Table 2-5 Top 20 Container Ports: Throughput 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-36

Table 2-6 Active Interstate Carriers by Fleet Size: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-41

Table 2-7 Airline Domestic Hubs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-46

Table 2-8 World Container Port Ranking: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-49

Table 3-1 Transportation Fatalities by Mode: 1998 and 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2

Table 3-2 Total Fatalities in Motor Vehicle Crashes by Type of Crash: 1998 . . . . . . . . . 3-9

Table 3-3 Factors in Pedestrian Fatalities: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11

Table 3-4 Factors in Bicyclist Fatalities: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11

Table 3-5 Hazardous Materials Shipment Characteristics by Mode of

Transportation for the United States: 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-59

Table 4-1 Top 10 U.S. Merchandise Trade Partners, by Value: 1975 and 1998 . . . . . . . 4-4

Table 4-2 Global Brands Owned by Car Manufacturers Headquartered

 in the United States: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-6

Table 4-3 “Foreign” Vehicles Built in the USA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-8

Table 4-4 “Domestic” Vehicles Built in Mexico and Canada: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-9

Table 4-5 Top Selling Cars and Trucks in the United States: 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-11

Table 4-6 Major International Airline Alliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-14

Table 4-7 Top 10 Shipments by Air, Ranked by Value: 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-21

Table 5-1 Population and Passenger Travel in the United States: 1977 and 1995 . . . . 5-3

Table 5-2 Average Household Size: 1970-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-3

Table 5-3 Licensing by Race/Ethnicity: 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-6

Table 5-4 Transportation Energy Use by Mode: 1960-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-20

Table 5-5 World Petroleum Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-24

Table 5-6 Highway Noise Barrier Construction: 1970-98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-43

Table 5-7 Wetlands Loss and Replacement for Federal-Aid

Highways: 1996-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-46

Table 6-1 Metropolitan Intelligent Transportation System

Infrastructure—Functions and Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-10

Table 6-2 Rural ITS Infrastructure—Functions and Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-14

Table 7-1 Maritime Security Program (MSP) Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-3

Table 7-2 Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-3

Table 7-3 Members of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-5

B-1

3PL Third-party logistics

4PLs Fourth-party logistics companies

AC Alternating Current

ACC Adaptive Cruise Control

ADA Americans with Disabilities Act

ADF aircraft deicing fluid

ADS-A automatic dependent surveillance-addressable system

ADS-B automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast

AIADA American International Automobile Dealers Association

AIADA American Imported Automobile Dealers Association

AIR-21 Aviation Investment and Reform Act for the 21st Century

AM radio lower frequency radio waves

API American Petroleum Institute

ASRS Aviation Safety Reporting System

ASTs aboveground storage tanks

ATC Air Traffic Control

ATO Air Traffic Organization

AVL Automatic Vehicle Location

AVP Advanced Vehicle Technologies Program

B2B business-to-business

B2C business-to-consumer

BAC Blood Alcohol Concentration

BART Bay Area Rapid Transit

BBC British Broadcasting Corporation

Bbl barrel

Big LEO special handheld telephone

BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Btu British Thermal Unit

C02 Carbon dioxide

CAB Civil Aeronautics Board

CAD Computer-Aided Dispatch

CAFÉ Corporate Average Fuel Economy

CD-ROM/DVD Compact Disk-Read Only Memory/Digital Video Disk

CDL Commercial Driver’s License

CDS Crashworthiness Data System

CFIT controlled flight into terrain

CH4 Methane

CNG Compressed Natural Gas

CO Carbon Monoxide

COMSTAC Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee

CONUS Continental U.S.

COO Chief Operating Officer

CORS Continuously operating reference stations

CPDLC Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications

Acronyms and Initialisms

appendix B
B-2

CRAF Civil Reserve Air Fleet

CVO Commercial Vehicles Operations

DBA Decibels

DC Direct Current

DFDRs Digital flight data recorders

DGPS Differential GPS

DOD Department of Defense

DOJ Department of Justice

DVD Digital Video Disk

ECP Electronically Controlled Pneumatic

EDI Electronic Data Interchange

EDSs Explosives Detection Systems

EMS Emergency Medical Services

EPA Environmental Protection Agency

ERGS Electronic Route Guidance System

ETC Electronic Toll Collection

EU European Union

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FARS Fatal Accident Reporting System

FAST Final Approach Spacing Tool

FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation

FedEx Federal Express

FHWA Federal Highway Administration

FMC Federal Maritime Commission

FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

FRA Federal Railroad Administration

FTA Federal Transit Administration

GAIN Global Aviation Information Network

GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association

GARA General Aviation Revitalization Act

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEO Geostationary Earth Orbit

GES General Estimates System

GMDSS Global Maritime Distress and Safety System

GNP Gross National Product

GPRA Government Performance and Results Act of 1993

GPS Global Positioning System

GPWS Ground Proximity Warning System

GWP Gross World Product

HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons

HOV High occupancy vehicle

HTF Highway Trust Fund

HSIS Highway Safety Information System

HSR Incremental High-Speed Rail

IASA International Aviation Safety Assessment

IATA International Air Transport Association

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

ICC Interstate Commerce Commission

IHS Interstate Highway System

IMO International Maritime Organization

ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act

ITS Intelligent Transportation Systems

IVHS Intelligent Vehicle Highway System

IVI Intelligent Vehicle Initiative

LAAS Local Area Augmentation System
B-3

LCD Liquid Crystal Display

LEO Low Earth Orbit

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

LTL Less Than Truckload

LTVs Light trucks and vans

Maglev Magnetic levitation

MARAD Maritime Administration

MERCOSUR Southern Common Market

mmbd Million barrels of oil per day

mph Miles per hour

MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization

MSP Maritime Security Program

MTMCTEA Military Traffic Management Command Transportation

Engineering Agency

MTS Marine Transportation System

N2O Nitrous Oxide

NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement

NAS National Airspace System

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NHS National Highway System

NCP National Contingency Plan

NDGPS Nationwide Differential Global Positioning System

NDRF National Defense Reserve Fleet

NEPA National Environmental Policy Act

New HSR new high-speed rail systems

NGS National Geodetic Survey

NHS National Highway System

NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NIMBY not in my back yard

NMMA National Marine Manufacturers Association

NMSL National Maximum Speed Limit

NO2 nitrogen dioxide

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency’s

NOTAM Notices to Airmen

NOx nitrogen oxide

NPTS Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey

NS Norfolk Southern

NSC National Security Council

NSI National Shipbuilding Initiative

NTSB National Transportation Safety Board

NUMMI New United Motor Manufacturing, Inc.

O3 ozone

OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

OSRA Ocean Shipping Reform Act

OTRBs over-the-road buses

PanAm Pan American

Pb lead

PCBs polychlorinated biphenyl

PDDs Presidential Decision Directives

PFCs Perfluorocarbons

PM10 particulate matter less than 10 microns

PNGV U.S. Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles

ppm parts per million
B-4

PPPs Power Projection Platforms

PTC Positive Train Control

PTP Prevention Through People

R&D research and development

RNAV Area Navigation

RPM Revenue Passenger Miles

RRF Ready Reserve Force

RRIF Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing

RSPA Research and Special Programs Administration

RTMs revenue ton-miles

SA Selective Availability

SAFER Special Aviation Fire and Explosion Reduction

SCADA Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition

SEABEE Construction Battalion (CB)-this acronym is a Phonetic

reference to the CB member of this Navy Unit.

SF6 Sulfur Hexafluoride

SIPs Safety Integration Plans

SIPs State Implementation Plans

SO2 sulfur dioxide

SPEARS Screener Proficiency Evaluation and Reporting System

STARS Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System

STB Surface Transportation Board

STRAHNET Strategic Highway Network

SUVs sport utility vehicles

TCAS Traffic Alert Collision Avoidance System

TDM Transportation Demand Management

TDLS Tower Data Link Services

TEA-21 Transportation Efficiency Act for the 21st Century

TEU 20-foot equivalent unit

TIFIA Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation

Act of 1998

TIP Threat Image Projection

Title XI Maritime Guarantee

TL Truckload

TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control

TTI Texas Transportation Institute

TWA Trans World Airlines

TWA Trans World Airlines

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change

UPS United Parcel Service

USCG U.S. Coast Guard

USDOC U.S. Department of Commerce

USDOT U.S. Department of Transportation

USGS U.S. Geological Survey

USPS U.S. Postal Service

UST Underground Storage Tank

UTA Union de Transport Aeriens

VHF Very High Frequency

VISA Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement

VLCCs very large crude carriers

VMT vehicle-miles traveled

VOCs volatile organic compounds

VSL variable speed limit

WAAS Wide Area Augmentation System

WRDA Water Resources Development Act
C-1

Air control facility: A station that provides air traffic control service to aircraft operating on

an IFR (instrument flight rule) flight plan within controlled airspace and principally during

the en route phase of flight.

Aircraft sequencing: Automation technology that helps air traffic controllers maximize

runway space by managing aircraft arrival and departure rates.

Airlift: Both the means of delivery and the sustainable lifeline for troops by air until sea lines

of communication can be established.

Alternative fuels: Methanol, denatured ethanol, and other alcohols, separately or in mixtures

of 85 percent by volume or more (or other percentage not less than 70 as determined by

Department of Energy rule) with gasoline or other fuels. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG),

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), hydrogen, coal-derived liquid

fuels, fuels other than alcohols derived from biological materials, electricity, or any other fuel

determined to be substantially not petroleum.

Anthropogenic interference: Of, relating to, or resulting from the influence of human beings

on nature.

Arterial (highway): A major highway, primarily for through traffic, usually on a continuous

route.

Avionics: Aviation communications, navigation, flight controls, and displays.

A-weighted scale: Scale that measures those sound frequencies humans can most easily hear.

Measurements of decibels are nonlinear; a 10-decibel increase in sound on a scale of Aweighted decibels (dBA) represents a perceived doubling of sound. A vacuum cleaner

operating 10 feet away is audible at 70 to 75 dBA. Noise becomes annoying at 65 dBA and

painful at 128 dBA.

Ballast (rail): Cinders, crushed rock, or gravel placed on the roadbed to hold track ties in

place and to promote uniform drainage.

Ballast (sea): Heavy substances loaded by a vessel to improve stability. Seawater ballast is

commonly loaded in most vessels in ballast tanks.

Barge carriers: Ships designed to carry either barges or containers exclusively, or some

variable number of barges and containers simultaneously. Currently, this class includes two

types of vessels, the LASH and the SEABEE.

Barge: A nonmotorized water vessel, usually flat-bottomed and towed or pushed by a tugboat

or pushboat.

Beam: The width of a ship. Also called breadth.

Berth: A place in which a vessel is moored or secured.

Glossary

appendix C
C-2

Bilateral Agreement: A concurrence reached between two states.

Bilge keel: One of a pair of longitudinal plates that, like fins, project from the sides of a ship

or boat and run parallel to the center keel. They are intended to check rolling. On large

ships the outward projections of the bilge keels may be slight; on small yachts they may be

comparatively deep.

Bill of lading: A document by which the master of a ship acknowledges having received in

good order and condition (or the reverse) certain specified goods. A bill of landing specifies

the name of the master, the port and destination of the ship, the goods, the consignee, and the

rate of the freight.

Biometric identification systems: Identification systems involving voice recognition,

handprint, and face scans.

Blind spot: Areas around a commercial vehicle that are not visible to the driver either through

the windshield, side windows, or mirrors.

Break bulk: The process of assimilating many small shipments into one large shipment at a

central point so that economies of scale may be achieved; to commence discharge of cargo.

Breakbulk vessel: A cargo ship that carries a variety of products of nonuniform sizes, often

bound on pallets to facilitate loading and unloading.

Brownfield sites: Abandoned, idled, or underused industrial and commercial facilities/sites

where expansion or redevelopment is complicated by real or perceived environmental

contamination. They can be in urban, suburban, or rural areas. The Environmental

Protection Agency’s Brownfields initiative helps communities mitigate potential health risks

and restore the economic viability of such areas or properties.

Bulk Carrier: Vessels designed to carry dry-bulk cargo such as grain, fertilizers, and ore.

Cabotage: The carriage of goods or passengers for remuneration taken on at one point and

discharged at another point within the territory of the country.

Car capacity: Load limitation, by volume or weight, of a rail freight car.

Carload: A shipment of not less than 10,000 pounds of one commodity from one consignor to

another.

Circumferential commuting pattern: Commuting between suburban areas on the fringe of a

city.

Civil Reserve Air Fleet: Provides a significant part of the nation’s mobility resource. Selected

aircraft from commercial U.S. airlines are contracted to support Department of Defense

emergency airlift requirements should airlift needs exceed military aircraft capabilities.

Class I railroads: A railroad with an annual gross operating revenue in excess of $250

million (1991 dollars).

Collector (highway): In rural areas, highway routes serving intra-county rather than

statewide travel. In urban areas, roads providing direct access to neighborhoods as well as

to arterials.
C-3

Commuter air carrier: A small certificated air taxi operator performing at least five round

trips per week between two or more points according to published flight schedules that

specify times, days of the week, and points between such flights.

Commuter rail (transit): Urban passenger train service for short-distance travel between a

central city and adjacent suburb. Does not include rapid-rail transit or light-rail service.

Compact car: An automobile industry designation applied to cars with a wheelbase between

100 and 104 inches.

Container: A rectangular box used to transport freight by ship, rail, and highway.

International shipping containers are 20 or 40 feet long, conform to International Standards

Organization standards, and are designed to fit in ships’ holds. Off the ship, containers are

transported on public roads on a container chassis towed by a tractor. Domestic containers,

up to 53 feet long and of lighter construction, are designed for rail and highway use only.

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE): Originally established by Congress for new

automobiles, and later for light trucks. CAFE standards require automobile manufacturers

to produce vehicle fleets with a composite sales-weighted fuel economy that meets or

exceeds the CAFE standards in a given year. For every vehicle that does not meet the

standard, a fine is paid for every one-tenth of a mpg below the standard.

Culvert: A sewer or drain running under a road, railroad tracks, or an embankment.

Daymarker: An unlighted shore aid to navigation, either diamond, square, or triangle

shaped.

DC traction motor: The motive power of the train is provided by a motor powered by direct

current through overhead electrified wires.

Deadweight: The number of tons (metric or long) of cargo, stores, and bunker fuel that a

vessel can transport. It is the difference between the number of tons of water a vessel displaces

“light” and the number of tons it displaces when submerged to the “load line.”

Dependence ratio: The ratio of household members who are not of working age (either under

16 or over 65) to those of working age. This results in more persons living in households in

which they are responsible for supporting only themselves as opposed to supporting

dependents (i.e., children or aging parents).

Doppler effect: The apparent difference between the frequency at which sound or light

waves leave a source and that at which they reach an observer, caused by relative motion of

the observer and the wave source.

Doublestack rail services: Intermodal service characterized by shipping containers stacked

two-high on railcars.

Dredge: The act of cleaning, deepening, or widening harbors and waterways with a machine

equipped with a scooping or suction device. This equipment is also called a dredge.

Dry bulk: Cargo such as grain, fertilizers, and ore.

Dry-cargo ships: Large flat-bottomed, nonself-propelled vessels used to transport dry

bulk materials such as coal and ore.
C-4

Dynamic routing: In demand-response transportation systems, the process of constantly

modifying vehicle routes to accommodate service requests received after vehicles begin

operations, as distinguished from predetermined routes assigned to a vehicle.

Enplanement: The total number of passengers boarding an aircraft and the total revenue tons

of freight and mail loaded on an aircraft.

Environmental impact statement: A document required of federal agencies by the National

Environmental Policy Act for major projects or legislative proposals significantly affecting

the environment. The statement describes the positive and negative effects of the

undertaking and cites alternative actions.

Environmental streamlining: The development and implementation of an environmental

review process for highway and transit projects that coordinates the regulations of all

agencies affected by the project. One element of the streamlining process is concurrent

review, another is a review slated for completion within a cooperatively determined time

period.

Ex-urban: Rural location on the fringes of a suburban area having residents who commute to

work in urban areas.

Final approach spacing tools: The use of aircraft descent performance characteristics,

position/track data, user preferences, and controller inputs to generate a recommended

arrival/landing sequence for each plane.

Fixed-wing turbine aircraft: An aircraft with an internal-combustion engine to turn a turbine.

Flag of convenience: Sometimes referred to as flag of necessity; denotes registration of a ship

to a nation, other than the nation of the vessel’s owner, that offers favorable tax structures,

regulations, and other incentives.

Force deployment: The moving of military units outside the borders of a state.

Foreign flag air carrier: A foreign air carrier that makes stops within the borders of the United

States.

Free flight phase 1: To be introduced by 2002, will use advanced airborne and ground-based

technologies and new procedures to gain optimum tactical separation between planes,

enabling more planes to fly and to take more efficient, more direct routes.

Free flight: a system using advanced technologies and procedures that give air crews more

freedom to select flight paths, speeds, and altitudes that are the most direct or otherwise

satisfy operational requirements.

Fuel cell: A device that produces electrical energy directly from the controlled electrochemical

oxidation of the fuel. It does not contain an intermediate heat cycle, as do most other electrical

generation techniques.

Gauge (rail): The distance measured between the inside edges of the running rails.

GDP (gross domestic product): Total market value of goods and services produced by a

nation’s economy during a specific period of time (usually a year), plus the income accruing

to a nation’s residents from investments abroad, minus the income earned in the domestic

economy accruing to non-nationals located abroad (see GNP (gross national product)).
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Geostationary orbit: Any orbit at an altitude of 23,000 miles above the equator traveling at a

velocity and in a direction that keeps pace with the Earth’s rotation, making it appear to be

stationery in the sky (see Geosynchronous).

Geosynchronous orbit: Any orbit that has a rotational period equal to that of the Earth’s

rotational period and which may or may not be positioned over the equator.

Geosynchronous orbits inclined to the equator pass over the same points of the Earth at the

same time each day. Geosynchronous orbits over the equator appear to be stationary (see

Geostationary).

GNP (gross national product): Total market value of the final goods and services produced by

a nation’s economy during a specific period of time (usually a year), computed before

allowance is made for the depreciation or consumption of capital used in the process of

production (see GDP).

GWP (gross world product): Aggregate value of all final goods and services produced

worldwide in a given year.

Hazardous material (Hazmat): A substance or material that has been determined to be

capable of posing an unreasonable risk to health, safety, and property when transported in

commerce.

Heavy rail (transit): An electric railway with the capacity for a heavy volume of traffic and

characterized by exclusive rights-of-way, multicar trains, high speed and rapid acceleration,

sophisticated signaling, and high platform loading. Also known as subway, elevated

(railway), or metropolitan railway (metro).

High-occupancy vehicle lanes: Exclusive road or traffic lane limited to buses, vanpools,

carpools, and emergency vehicles.

High-occupancy vehicle: A vehicle that can carry at least two passengers, for example, a car,

bus, or van.

Highway Trust Fund (HTF): The source of funding for programs described in a particular

Act. The HTF under the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century is composed of the

Highway Account, which funds highway and intermodal programs, and the Mass Transit

Account. Federal motor fuel taxes are the major source of income into the HTF.

Highway-rail grade crossings: A location where one or more railroad tracks cross a public

highway, road, or street or a private roadway at grade, including sidewalks and pathways

at, or associated with, the crossing.

Household-trip: One or more household members traveling together.

Hub: A central location to which traffic from many cities is directed and from which traffic is

fed to other areas

Hull loss: Serious damage or destruction to an aircraft due to an accident.

Hybrid vehicle: A vehicle powered by both an internal combustion engine and an electric

motor. The emission levels of hybrid vehicles are lower than vehicles powered solely by an

internal combustion engine.

Hydrographic survey: Surveying of underwater features.
C-6

Intercity rail system: Transportation provided by Amtrak.

Intermodal: Pertaining to transportation using a combination of two or more land, sea, or air

systems.

Joint Aviation Authorities: An associated body of the European Civil Aviation Conference

representing the civil aviation regulatory authorities of a number of European states who

have agreed to cooperate in developing and implementing common safety regulatory

standards and procedures. This cooperation is intended to provide high and consistent

standards of safety and a “level playing field” for competition in Europe. Much emphasis is

also placed on harmonizing JAA regulations with those of the United States.

The JAA Membership is based on signing the “JAA Arrangements” document originally

signed by the then current member States in Cyprus in 1990.

Just-in-time: The principle of production and inventory control in which goods arrive when

needed for production or use.

Lean-burn gasoline: Lean combustion engines were designed to enhance fuel efficiency without

sacrificing power or drivability. All engines burn a mixture of air and fuel, but a lean-burn

engine has a higher air-to-fuel ratio than conventional engines. This can mean significant

savings in petrol, and thus in emissions like CO2.

Lighter aboard ship: An ocean ship that carries barges. These barges are loaded with cargo,

often at a variety of locations, towed to the ocean ship, sometimes referred to as the mother

ship, and lifted or, in some cases, floated on board. After the ocean crossing, the barges are

off-loaded and towed to their various destinations. This type of ship eliminates the need for

specialized port equipment.

Lightships: Navigation aids consisting of unmanned small vessels equipped with lights.

Phased out in the early 1980s.

Line haul: The management of freight transported between cities, usually more than 1,000

miles apart.

Liner: A cargo-carrying ship that is operated between specified ports on a regular basis for an

advertised price, versus a chartered ship that operates for single deliveries to a variety of

ports.

Liner trade: The passage of ships between designated ports on a fixed schedule and at

published rates.

Livable Communities Initiative: Aimed at broadening choices available to communities and

empowering them to sustain prosperity and expand economic opportunity by strengthening

local and regional economies, reclaiming brownfields, achieving a more favorable jobs to

housing balance, and encouraging smart growth.

Loop detector: An inductive loop of insulated wire, usually embedded in a roadbed, that

detects metal objects that cross its path. Used to control such devices as traffic lights, toll

collection systems, and motorized gates and doors.

Load factor: Percentage of cargo or passengers carried in relation to total capacity, for

example, 4,000 tons carried on a vessel of 10,000 ton capacity has a load factor of 40 percent.
C-7

Loran: An electronic navigational system by which hyperbolic lines of position are

determined by measuring the difference in the time of reception of synchronized pulse

signals from two fixed transmitters. Loran A operates in the 1,750-1,950 kHz frequency band.

Loran C and D operate in the 100-110 kHz frequency band.

Maintenance-of-way equipment (rail): Machinery and rolling stock used to keep track and

roadbed in good operating condition.

Manifest: A listing or invoice-of-charge for a particular shipment of goods and material.

Micro-bursts (air): A small downburst with outbursts of damaging winds extending 2.5 miles

or less. In spite of its small horizontal scale, an intense microburst could induce wind speeds

as high as 150 knots.

Multilateral agreement: Agreement reached between more than two states and to which all

signatories are bound, example the World Trade Organization. Compare with Plurilateral.

Multimodal: See intermodal.

Narrowbody aircraft: A commercial passenger jet having a single aisle and maximum of three

seats on each side of the aisle. Narrowbody aircraft include B727, B737, B757, DC9, MD80,

MD90, and A320.

Oil sands: Deposit of loose sand or partially consolidated sandstone that is saturated with

highly viscous bitumen. Oil recovered from tar sands is commonly referred to as synthetic

crude and is a potentially significant form of fossil fuel.

Oil shale: Any sedimentary rock containing solid organic material that yields hydrocarbons,

along with a variety of solid products, when subjected to pyrolysis—a treatment that consists

of heating the rock to about 500oC.

Omega system: An area navigation (RNAV) system designed for long-range navigation

based on ground-based electronic navigational aid signals.

On-demand air taxi: Use of an aircraft operating under Federal Aviation Regulations, Part

135, passenger and cargo operations, including charter and excluding commuter air carrier.

Over-the-road bus: A bus characterized by an elevated passenger deck located over a

baggage compartment, more commonly known as an intercity bus or motorcoach.

Paratransit: Comparable transportation service required by the American Disabilities Act for

individuals with disabilities who are unable to use fixed-route transportation systems.

Park-and-ride: An access mode to transit in which patrons drive private automobiles or ride

bicycles to a transit station, stop, or carpool/vanpool waiting area and park the vehicle in the

area provided for the purpose. They then ride the transit system or take a car or vanpool to

their destination.

Particulates: Carbon particles formed by partial oxidation and reduction of the hydrocarbon

fuel. In the transportation sector, particulates are emitted mainly from diesel engines.

Pavement loops: Electronic devices installed beneath the surface of a road that can detect the

passing of a car. Based on the frequency of passing cars, traffic flow can be monitored and

controlled using computer-based traffic control systems. See loop detector.
C-8

Pedalcyclists: A person on a vehicle powered solely by pedals.

Person trip: Trip by one person using any mode of transportation. For example, four people

traveling together in one auto equal four person trips.

Plurilateral agreement: Treaty between more than two states reached within the auspices of a

“multilateral agreement.” However, not all multilateral signatories are bound to the

plurilateral agreement unless they have specifically committed themselves to it.

Positive train controls (PTC): The application of digital data communications, automatic

positioning systems, wayside interface units (to communicate with switches and wayside

detectors), on-board and control center computers, and other advanced display, sensor, and

control technologies to manage and control railroad operations. PTC can help reduce the

probability of collisions between trains, collisions between trains and maintenance-of-way

crews, and overspeed accidents. PTC systems can also improve the efficiency of railroad

operations by reducing some train over-the-road delays, increasing running time reliability,

increasing track capacity, and improving asset utilization.

Power Projection Platforms (PPP): U.S. military bases from which armed forces are moved

to seaports for military deployment.

Radial commuting pattern: Commuting from suburban areas on the fringes of a city towards

its center or core.

Ramjet: An air-breathing jet engine that operates with no major moving parts. It relies on the

craft’s forward motion to draw in air and on a specially shaped intake passage to compress

the air for combustion. Ramjets work best at speeds of Mach 2 (twice the speed of sound) and

higher.

Ramp metering programs: Control devices on entrance ramps that regulate the amount of

traffic entering a freeway.

Regenerative brakes: A system wherein much of the braking and deceleration energy is

recouped and returned to the battery to increase overall efficiency rather than being wasted

as heat.

Revenue passenger miles: One passenger carried one mile generates one passenger-mile.

Revenue ton-miles: One ton of revenue cargo (including all baggage) transported one mile.

Right of establishment: The right of airlines to create or purchase subsidiary airlines

within a foreign nation.

Right-of-way: 1. The track, roadbed, and property alongside which is owned by the railroad.

2. The land acquired for and devoted to highway transportation.

Roll on/roll off vessel (water): Ships that are especially designed to carry wheeled containers

or other wheeled cargo, and use the roll on/roll off method for loading and unloading.

Route sequencing (air): Process by which an air-traffic controller issues instructions to pilots

on the proper flight headings, altitudes, and speeds to maintain separation from other aircraft

and ensure safe and efficient order of arrivals, departures, and en route traffic.

Sealift: U.S.-controlled maritime or aviation shipping capacity used in times of military

emergencies.
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Seat-miles: The aircraft-miles flown between airports multiplied by the number of seats

available on that flight for revenue passenger use. Seventy-five passengers flying 300 miles

would equal 22,500 seat miles.

Smart growth: A concept intended to promote the quality of life in existing urban areas, limit

urban sprawl, and promote a sense of community. Policies stemming from smart growth

include the restoration of center cities and older suburbs, investment in transit and pedestrian

forms of transportation, a greater mix of housing, commercial, and retail uses and the

preservation of open space and many other environmental amenities.

Smart pigs: Devices that travel inside a pipe and are able to detect corrosion, metal loss, and

mechanical gouges or dents.

Stages 2 and 3 aircraft: Under Federal Aviation Regulation Part 36, aircraft sound levels are

categorized by stages. Stage 2 is the aircraft sound level needed to meet FAA 1969 noise

regulations. Examples of Stage 2 aircraft include the B-727-200 and the DC 9. Stage 2

regulations are being phased out. Stage 3 refers to aircraft sound levels needed to meet

FAA’s more stringent 1975 noise regulations. Examples include the B-737-300, the B-757,

the MD-80, and the A-310. Stage 3 aircraft noise levels range from 95 to 105 dBA.

Station cars: Electric vehicles driven to and from mass transit stations by transit riders.

Typically, they are battery-powered, two-seat vehicles designed to transport transit users

who cannot reach their final destinations by walking. They are intended to provide an

option that could encourage transit use by those who otherwise would be compelled to

drive their own vehicles.

Steel wheel (rail): The cast or forged steel wheel that rolls on the rail, carries the weight, and

provides guidance for rail vehicles. The wheels are semipermanently mounted in pairs on

steel axles and are designed with flanges and a tapered treat to provide for operation on track

of a specific gauge. The wheel also serves as a brake drum on cars with on-tread brakes.

Supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet): An air-breathing engine designed for speeds

beyond Mach 6, which mixes fuel into air flowing through it at supersonic speeds, used in

hypersonic aircraft.

Supply chain: A set of three or more organizations directly linked by one or more of the

upstream and downstream flows of products, services, finances, and information from a

source to a customer.

Supply chain management: The systematic, strategic coordination of traditional business

functions within a particular company and across businesses within the supply chain for

the purposes of improving the long-term performance of the individual companies and the

supply chain as a whole.

Tanker: An oceangoing ship designed to haul liquid bulk cargo in world trade.

Tier II: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations that cover motor vehicles and the

fuels they use. These standards require a reduction in tailpipe emissions and lower sulfur

content. These regulations specify acceptable ranges for some fuel qualities (e.g., volatility,

sulfur content). In areas of the country with severe ozone problems, EPA requires the use of

gasoline that has been reformulated to meet a predicted level of emissions performance, based

on a range of fuel characteristics.

Tractor: Truck designed primarily to pull a semitrailer by means of a fifth wheel mounted over

the rear axels. Sometimes called a truck-tractor or highway tractor to differentiate it from a

farm tractor.
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Tractor-trailer: Tractor and semitrailer combination

Traffic calming techniques: Road design strategies to reduce vehicle speeds and volumes.

Traffic calming projects can range from a few minor changes to neighborhood streets to

major rebuilding of a street network. Impacts range from moderate speed

reductions on residential streets to arterial design changes.

Traffic signal control system: A system that controls traffic flow by adjusting and

coordinating traffic signals at intersections. The system can also monitor traffic conditions

with vehicle detectors and cameras. These functions allow a traffic management agency to

service traffic demand, share traffic status with other agencies and with the traveling public,

and operate and maintain the traffic signal control system.

Trestle: A wooden bridge-like structure usually having all supporting members below the

railway tracks.

Trip chaining: The incorporation of multiple stops in one trip, instead of several individual

trips, thus reducing fuel consumption.

Trust funds: Accounts that are specifically designated by law to carry out specific purposes

and programs. They are usually financed with earmarked tax collections.

Turbojet/turbofan: Jet engine in which a turbine-driven compressor draws in and compresses

air, forcing it into a combustion chamber into which fuel is injected. Ignition causes the gases

to expand and to rush first through the turbine and then through a nozzle at the rear. Forward

thrust is generated as a reaction to the rearward momentum of the exhaust gases. During the

1960s, the turbofan, a modification of the turbojet, came into

common use. The turbofan moves a much greater mass of air than the simple turbojet,

providing advantages in power and economy.

Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit (TEU): A measure of container’s carrying capacity determined

by calculating the length of that container divided by 20. A 48 ft container equals 2.4 TEU.

Two-way end-of-train device: Provides an additional measure of safety to a train’s braking

system, particularly on steep grades, by enabling locomotive engineers to

apply an emergency brake from both ends of the train.

U.S. flag carrier or American flag carrier (air): A class of air carriers holding

a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity issued by the Department of

Transportation, approved by the President, authorizing scheduled operations over

specified routes between the United States (and/or its territories) and one or more foreign

countries.

Unit train: A train with a specified number of railcars that remains as a unit for a designated

destination or until a change in routing is made.

Unlinked passenger trips: The number of passengers who board public transportation

vehicles. A passenger is counted each time he/she boards a vehicle even though he/she

may be on the same journey from origin to destination.

Vehicle-miles of travel (VMT): A unit of measurement of vehicle travel made by a private

vehicle, such as an automobile, van, pickup truck, or motorcycle. Each mile traveled is

counted as one vehicle-mile regardless of the number of persons in the vehicle.

Vehicle occupancy: The number of persons, including driver and passenger(s) in a vehicle.

Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey occupancy rates are generally calculated as

person-miles divided by vehicle-miles.
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Vessel feeder services: Cargo to/from regional ports are transferred to/from a central hub

port for a long-haul ocean voyage.

Vessel sharing agreement: An agreement between ocean common carriers whereby a carrier

or carriers agree(s) to provide vessel capacity for the use of another carrier or carriers in

exchange for compensation or services.

Volatile organic compounds: Gases released into the air from certain solids or liquids such as

gasoline, solvents, and paint thinner. They include a variety of chemicals that can have both

short-term and long-term health effects as well as contribute to global warming.

Voluntary security consortia: Cooperative group established at 170 airports that brings

together government agencies and airline industry representatives to assess and discuss

security issues and work together to eliminate vulnerabilities.

Wake turbulence: Every aircraft in flight generates a wake of turbulent air. The disturbance

created by the wake is caused by a pair of counter rotating vortices trailing from the wingtips

of the aircraft. The vortices from large aircraft pose problems to encountering aircraft. and if

encountered at close range, can damage aircraft components and equipment and cause deaths

or injuries.

Watersheds: Area from which all precipitation flows to a single stream or set of streams.

Waybill: Freight car handling order identifying the shipper, receiver, routing, and contents of

the car.

Weigh-in motion: The process of measuring the dynamic tire forces of a moving vehicle and

estimating the corresponding tire loads of the static vehicle. Weigh-in-motion technology

provides highway planners and designers with traffic volume and classification data by time

of day and day of week.

Wet lease: An arrangement for renting an aircraft under which the owner provides, for

example, crews, ground support equipment, and fuel.

Wetlands: Areas that are neither fully terrestrial nor fully aquatic. They range from the vast

cypress swamps of the southern United States to shallow holes that retain water only a few

weeks of the year. Wetlands can provide critical habitat for migratory waterfowl, control

flooding, act as natural filters for drinking water, and provide recreation.

Widebody aircraft: A commercial passenger jet having a twin aisle, able to hold a greater

number of passengers than narrowbody aircraft. Examples include Boeing’s 747, 777 and

Airbus’s A310.

Windshear: A sudden and dramatic shift in wind speed and direction.