National Center for Statistics and Analysis 1 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

November 2003 DOT HS 809 698

Moving Children from the Front Seat to the Back Seat: 

The Infl uence of Child Safety Campaigns

John Kindelberger and Marc Starnes*

Traffi c Safety Facts

Research Note

Since 1995, many child safety 

campaigns have encouraged drivers 

to move children from the front seat 

to the safer back seat. NHTSA’s 

National Center for Statistics and 

Analysis (NCSA) recently completed 

an evaluation of the effectiveness 

of these campaigns. This research 

note provides details of this analysis, 

which show that these programs 

seem to be working and have yielded 

numerous positive results.

Motor vehicle crashes are the single 

leading cause of death of American 

children in the age group of 4-15 

years, and a major cause of death 

in children age three and under1

. 

Research has shown that children 

aged 12 and under are 26 to 35 

percent less likely to be fatally injured 

in a crash if they are in the rear seat, 

and front seats are even less safe 

when equipped with an air bag 

which, when deployed, can harm 

younger children2,3. 

When frontal air bags came into 

common use in the mid-1990s, the 

added risk to children became a 

subject of concern after a number 

of air bag-related fatalities occurred. 

In response, the National Highway 

Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) 

and a network of partners conducted 

campaigns encouraging drivers to 

move children of age 12 and under 

from the front seat into the back seat 

(for this note, “back seat” refers to 

any of the second or further seats). 

Child Safety Campaign Efforts

NHTSA and its private and public 

partners (manufacturers, insurance 

companies and other organizations) 

have committed a high volume of 

public education resources in an 

effort to prevent air bag related 

injuries and fatalities, especially to 

children. The 1996 implementation 

of NHTSA’s Buckle Up America 

Campaign and the National Safety 

Council’s Airbag and Seat Belt 

Safety Campaign, as well as 

others, stressed the following safety 

principles:

! Always buckle your safety belt.

! Never place a rear-facing infant 

seat in front of an air bag.

! Keep approximately 10 inches 

between your breastbone and 

the air bag.

! Place children in the back seat 

and make sure they are properly 

restrained in an appropriate 

child safety seat, or, if they 

are old enough, with lap and 

shoulder belts.

In addition, NHTSA regulatory 

actions have resulted in warning 

labels being prominently displayed in 

all vehicles equipped with passenger 

air bags.

Existing Indicators

This note will concentrate on State 

crash data, but some other existing 

data can also provide hints of 

campaign effects. For instance, child 

fatalities attributed to a deploying 

front passenger air bag can be 

expected to drop as children move 

to the back seat. As of October 

1, 2003, NCSA’s Special Crash 

Investigations (SCI) program had 

confirmed 145 air bag-related fatal 

injuries to children 12 and under; 

of these, 123 took place from 1993 

through 1999. The rate of passenger 

air bag related child fatalities per 

million registered vehicle years 

(MRVY) peaked at 0.8 deaths per 

MRVY in the 12-month period from 

September 1995 through August 

1996. Since then, the 12-month rate 

has steadily fallen. It has been under 

.07 deaths per MRVY since 20014

.

Another indicator is NHTSA’s 

National Occupant Protection Use 

Survey (NOPUS), a probability based

observational survey of restraint
National Center for Statistics and Analysis 2 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

use on the nation’s roads. NOPUS 

estimated in 2002 that 15 percent 

of infants, 10 percent of 1-3 year 

olds, and 29 percent of 4-7 years 

olds were in the front seat5

. The 

2002 NOPUS was the first to 

record seating position by age, so 

comparisons with earlier years are 

not available. The NOPUS results 

are also not segmented to control for 

certain potential variables of interest, 

such as number of occupants in the 

vehicle or air bag presence.

Methodology

State Data Eligibility Requirements

To build on the findings of the SCI 

teams and the NOPUS, NCSA 

turned to its State Data System. 

Since the early 1980s, NHTSA/

NCSA has been obtaining computer 

data files coded from police crash 

reports in various States. NHTSA 

refers to this collection of crash data 

files as the State Data System (SDS). 

As of this note’s publishing date, the 

participating States are: California, 

Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, 

Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, 

Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, 

Missouri, New Mexico, North 

Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South 

Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, 

Washington and Wisconsin. 

The SDS records data from all

police-reported crashes in the 

participating States, and so is a 

strong candidate for studying seating 

position patterns among crashinvolved passengers. However, not 

all participating States can be used 

in such a study, since not all States 

collect comparable crash data. For 

this note, study needs required using 

States that (1) collect data (including 

seating position) on all vehicle occupants, including uninjured occupants; 

(2) record the Vehicle Identification 

Number (VIN); and (3) have essentially complete data available in 

the relevant variables for the years 

1995-2001. Requirement (2) was 

imposed because VINs can be used 

to distinguish multi-seat passenger 

cars, sport utility vehicles, and 

passenger vans from vehicles where 

front/back seating choice is not an 

issue, such as pickups, buses, large 

trucks, two-seater sports cars, and 

so on. VINs can also identify the 

existence of driver and/or passenger 

air bags in the vehicle. Requirements 

(1) and (3) ensure that the relevant 

variables are present over a useful 

time span.

The SDS States that met the above 

criteria as of July 2003 were Florida, 

Maryland and Utah. Coincidentally, 

the three viable States are in three 

different regions of the United States. 

Although they cannot statistically 

claim to represent the Nation, the 

patterns of child positioning seen 

within each of the three States over 

the years were remarkably similar to 

each other (and to other examined 

States that partially met the viability 

criteria). Crash data from Florida 

(FL), Maryland (MD) and Utah (UT) 

– combined – are thus studied in this 

note as an indicator of reactions to 

the child safety campaigns. 

Case Selection Criteria

NCSA classified children into the age 

groups of 3 years and under (infants/

toddlers), 4-7 (booster seat age) and 

8-12 (older children). Most passenger 

cars, sport utility vehicles and vans 

were defined as eligible for this study, 

but two-seaters, pick-ups and other 

off-topic vehicles were excluded. 

The analysis covers the years 

1995 through 2001 and includes 

227,029 children in Florida, 81,532 

in Maryland and 55,018 in Utah.

This report first examined the 

percentages of children in the front 

seat. These percentages apply to all 

eligible vehicles and do not control 

for the number of occupants per 

vehicle. Therefore the results include 

cases where the child positioning 

was conditioned on the number of 

adults or other children in the vehicle. 

For example, a child may be seated 

in the back seat only because the 

front seat was taken.

To control for such confounding, 

a second analysis was performed 

admitting only vehicles with exactly 

one adult and exactly one child (a 

“pair-populated” vehicle). The intent 

was to examine cases where the

driver had a clear choice about

where to put the child. The restricted 

analysis, again covering 1995-2001, 

includes 57,598 adult/child pairs 

in Florida, 19,185 in Maryland and 

11,142 in Utah.

Results

In the combined three States, 25.6 

percent of crash-involved children 

3 years of age or younger were in 

the front seat in the year 1995. In 

2001, the proportion had dropped 

to 8.2 percent. In the same years, 

the percent of children ages 4-7 in 

the front seat went from 33 percent 

to 19 percent, while children of ages 

8-12 went from 39 percent to 35 

percent. These percentages are 

displayed in Figure 1a. 

The annual proportions of pairpopulated vehicles with a child 

in front are shown in Figure 1b. 

Comparing Figures 1a and 1b points 

out that when a child is the only 

passenger (1b), a driver is more likely 

to seat the child in front than Figure 

1a might imply. However, Figure 

1b shows that tendency dropping 

considerably over the years. 
100

80

60

40

20

1995

Percent in Front

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0

100

80

60

40

20

1995

Percent in Front

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0

0-3 4-7 8-12

National Center for Statistics and Analysis 3 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

Figure 1

Percent Children in Front Seat

by Age Group

FL/MD/UT Police-Reported Crashes

1995-2001

Source: NCSA, NHTSA, State Data System

Figure 1a

All Eligible Vehicles

Figure 1b

Eligible Vehicles with One Adult, 

One Child

Among the adult-child pairs, the 

percentage of children ages 0-3 

seated in front dropped from 52 

percent in 1995 to 17 percent in 2001, 

a decrease of 35 percentage points. 

The 4-7 group also dropped 35 

percentage points (from 78 percent 

to 43 percent) but as of 2001 they 

are still 2.5 times more likely to be 

placed in the front seat (43 percent) 

than their younger counterparts (17 

percent). The 8-12 group showed 

far less improvement (88 percent in 

1995 to 79 percent in 2001) than 

their younger counterparts. 

Still, Figures 1a and 1b both suggest 

that the child safety campaigns have 

had a positive influence. The percentage of children placed in the front 

seat decreased between 1996 and 

1997, especially for younger children, 

and continued to drop every year 

through 2001. The steepest annual 

drops within the two younger age 

categories can be seen between 

1996 (the implementation of the 

safety campaigns) and 1997. The 

likelihood of drivers placing a child 

passenger in the front seat continued 

to drop in each subsequent year 

following the campaigns. The increasing public awareness reflected in 

these figures can likely be attributed 

to the safety campaigns along with 

means such as media attention and 

word-of-mouth.

Despite the downward trends, the 

rates suggest that some drivers 

still have not adopted the safety 

principles. Even as recently as 2001, 

almost 20 percent of crash-involved 

drivers in the three States who were 

paired with a child of age 0-3 chose 

to place that child in the front seat. 

If the child was in the age range of 

4-7, drivers were over 40 percent 

likely to seat the child in the front 

seat. For a child age 8-12, the front 

seat was chosen almost 80 percent 

of the time in 2001, and this is not a 

large reduction from the 88 percent 

rate seen in the year 1995.

Seat Position by Air Bag Presence

A major motivation for the safety 

campaigns of the mid-1990s was 

the risk posed to a child seated in 

front of a deploying air bag. Still, the 

back seats are generally considered 

safer for any age, front air bag or 

not. Figures 1a and 1b cannot tell us 

whether the improvements shown 

are due to air bag concerns or to 

awareness of the general increased 

safety for children in the back seat. 

For a look at that issue, the adult/

child pairs were further tallied 

by passenger air bag presence 

(determined by VIN). Figure 2 

shows the results by age group. In 

1995, passenger air bag presence 

made virtually no difference in a 

driver’s choice of child placement. 

From 1996 through 1998, drivers 

of vehicles with passenger air 

bags shifted a larger percentage of 

children out of the front seat than did 

drivers of vehicles with no passenger 

air bag. 

In all subsequent years, drivers were 

more likely to put a child in the back 

seat if a passenger air bag was 

present in the vehicle. Much less 

of a shift was seen among child 

passengers ages 8-12, but children 

of this age group are still more likely 

to be placed in the back seat if the 

vehicle has a passenger air bag.

Seat Position and Restraint Use

Child restraint use for surviving 

children in the SDS is determined 

by police reports and may be 

over-reported, so the SDS is not 

recommended for estimating 

restraint use in any given year. Due 

to this limitation, this note focuses 

on relative shifts in restraint use 
National Center for Statistics and Analysis 4 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

100

80

60

40

20

1995

Percent in Front

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0

100

80

60

40

20

1995

Percent in Front

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0

100

80

60

40

20

1995

Percent in Front

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0

No PAB PAB

Figure 2

Percent Children in Front Seat: Eligible Vehicles with One Adult, One Child

by Passenger Air Bag (PAB) Presence and Age Group

FL/MD/UT Police-Reported Crashes, 1995-2001

 Age Group (Years) 0-3 4-7 8-12

Source: NCSA, NHTSA, State Data System

Figure 3

Percent Children 

Unrestrained Among 

Children in Front Seat

Eligible Vehicles with One Adult, One 

Child, by Age Group

FL/MD/UT Police-Reported Crashes, 

1995-2001

0-3 4-7 8-12

16

12

8

4

1995

Percent Unrestrained

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0

over time and the differences in 

restraint use between the three age 

categories. State categorizations 

of restraint use are not necessarily 

consistent, so aggregating restraint 

use data over three States limited 

the stratification of restraint use to 

“restrained” and “unrestrained.” 

Among the adult/child pairs in 

2001, the percent of children in 

the front seat who were restrained 

was typically similar to the percent 

of children in the back seat who 

were restrained. Among 4-7 yearolds and 8-12 year-olds, over 90 

percent of children in both the front 

seat and back seat were reported as 

restrained. A difference in restraint 

use in the front seat versus the 

back seat was seen among children 

0-3 years old. Only 81 percent of 

0-3 year olds in the front seat were 

reported as restrained, as compared 

to 94 percent in the back seat.

This pattern among children 0-3 

years old may be explained by stratifying the children into six categories, 

based on age (0-3, 4-7, 8-12) and 

seating position (front seat versus 

back seat). From 1995 through 

2001, only one of these six ageseat position categories had an 

increasing percentage of children 

who were traveling unrestrained. As 

seen in Figure 3, the percentage of 

0-3 year old children in the front seat 

who were unrestrained rose from 

8 percent in 1995 to 14 percent 

in 2001. The other five age-seat 

position categories had a decreasing 

percentage of children who were 

traveling unrestrained. The largest 

drop occurred among children 8-

12 years old in the back seat (not 

graphed), where the percentage of 

unrestrained children dropped from 

20 percent to 7 percent.

This trend may be attributable to 

the hypothesis that many safetyconscious parents moved their 

restrained infants and toddlers from 

the front seat to the back seat, as 

suggested by the safety campaigns. 

This repositioning may have led to 

the increased percentage of 0-3 year 

olds who remained unrestrained in 

the front seat, despite the large drop 

in the total number of 0-3 year old 

children in the front seat.

Source: NCSA, NHTSA, State Data System
National Center for Statistics and Analysis 5 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

The percent of 0-3 year olds who 

were restrained and seated in the 

back seat rose from 45 percent 

in 1995 to 78 percent in 2001, an 

increase of 33 percentage points. 

An increase of 33 percentage points 

was also seen among children age 

4-7 years old from 1995 (19 percent) 

to 2001 (52 percent). Many fewer 

children age 8-12 years old were 

restrained and seated in the back 

seat, rising from 10 percent in 1995 

to 19 percent in 2001.

Limitations

The SDS is based on police crash 

reports and is only as accurate 

as the information provided to 

police officers. Safety belt use in 

particular may be subject to witness 

embellishment due to State safety 

belt laws. (Child positioning is not 

likely to be misrepresented since in 

the three analysis States, laws are 

not broken if a child is in the front 

seat.) Data collection and formulation 

procedures may vary by State. 

As mentioned previously, the 

analysis States were used because 

they were the SDS States that met 

the study needs. Florida accounted 

for approximately two thirds of the 

analyzed cases. National seating 

patterns may or may not be 

similar to patterns seen within the 

three analysis States, but similar 

distributions were found among 

other States that partially met the 

selection criteria. 

Occupants of unknown age or 

unknown seating position were 

excluded from the analyses. Seating 

positions among crash-involved 

passengers may or may not be 

similar to those among the general 

population.

 Conclusions

This analysis of data from NHTSA’s 

State Data System showed that for 

every year since 1995, more children 

have been placed in the back seat, 

indicating positive effects of child 

safety campaigns. 

Other noteworthy results are: 

! Drivers are more likely to place 

a child in the front seat if there 

are no other passengers in the 

vehicle.

! The tendency of a driver to allow 

children in the front seat increases 

with the age of the child.

! Drivers of vehicles equipped with 

passenger air bags have shown a 

greater tendency to move children 

to the back seat than drivers of 

vehicles without air bags.

! Those infants and toddlers who 

are still being placed in the 

front seat are also being left 

unrestrained at a greater rate 

than their counterparts in the 

back seat.

NHTSA will continue to report on 

this issue as new data become 

available.

*John Kindelberger and Marc Starnes 

are Mathematical Statisticians with the 

Mathematical Analysis Division of the 

National Center for Statistics and Analysis, 

NHTSA.

References

1

Subramanian, Rajesh: “Motor 

Vehicle Crashes as a Leading Cause 

of Death in the United States”, 

NHTSA Research Note, DOT HS 80 

661, November 2003 

2

Hertz, Ellen: “Revised Estimates 

of Child Restraint Effectiveness”, 

NHTSA Research Note, November 

1996

3

Graham, John, et al.: Reducing 

Risks to Children in Vehicles With 

Passenger Airbags. Pediatrics. 

1998; 102(1):e3

4

National Center for Statistics and 

Analysis: “Monthly Counts for Air 

Bag Related Fatalities and Seriously 

Injured Persons”, October 2003; 

http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/

departments/nrd-30/ncsa/sci.html

5

Glassbrenner, Donna: “The Use of 

Child Restraints in 2002”, NHTSA 

Research Note, DOT HS 809 555, 

February 2003 

Acknowledgments and thanks are due to 

Rajesh Subramanian of NCSA for aid in VIN 

decoding.
National Center for Statistics and Analysis 6 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

For additional copies of this research note, please call 1-800-934-8517 or 

fax your request to 202-366-3189. For questions regarding the data reported 

in this research, contact John Kindelberger (202-366-3365) or Marc Starnes 

(202-366-0183). This research note and other general information on 

highway traffi c safety may be accessed by internet users at: http://wwwnrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/departments/nrd-30/ncsa/AvailInf.html