2 

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Energ y Con serv a tion Standards for Gene ral Se rv ice Fluores cent L a mps and Incande scen t Re fle c t or Lamps ANOPR Publ ic Meeting 

# National Impact Ana l y s is

Buildi ng Te c hnolo g ie s Prog ra m Office o fEn er g yEfficien c y an d Ren ew a ble En erg y U.S. De pa rtme nt of Ene r gy
March 10-1 1 , 2008

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## ANOPR An al y ses Fl o w Diagram

Fr amew o r k Document AN O P R NOPR Fi n a l Rul e

N a ti o nal Imp a ct An al y s i s En er g yU s e C h ar act e r i z a ti o n Ma rke tand T e chno l o gy Assess ment Scr e en i n g An al y s i s E n gi ne e r i n g An al y s i s Pr o duct Pr i c e De t e rm i n a t ion Li fe- C y c l e Cost a n d Pay b ack Per i o d A n al y s i s

Shi p m ents An al y s i s

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Purpose

 Sh ip men t s A n alysis


# • To estimate lamp shipments and t he product mix o fthe stock over time (2012
- 2042) in the base case and stand ards case. 

###  Natio n a l Imp a ct A n al ysis


# • To estimate the Nationa l Energ y Savings (NES) f r om GSFL and IR L efficac y standards at diff erent levels. 

# • To estimate the national econom ic im pact on the n a tion (o r the Net Present Value (NPV)) f r o m GSFL and IRL efficac y standa r d s at diffe rent levels.

3

4 Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Flu o rescen t Base-Cas e Shipmen t Me th od olo g y

# ofL a m p s i n t h e In v e n t o r y in 20 11 Extra polat ed S h i p m e nt s to 2 011

# o fS ystems in th e In v e n t o r y in 20 11 Tota l Lumen s i n 201 1

Lumen D e mand S ystem A g e Di stri bu ti on NEM A Hi stor ical Shipmen t s ( 2 00 1- 2 0 0 5 ) Average Lamp Li fe ti m ei n 2 0 1 1 Lamps per S ystem Bal l ast Shipmen t Census Data

Charac teris t ic Lamp and Ballas t Life tim e s M a rketShares o f t h e L a m pan d B a ll as t In v e n t o r y in 201 1

M a rketShares o f Lamp and Ba llas t Sh ip men t s in 20 12 - 204 2 Lamp Repla ceme n t Shipmen t s Bal l ast Repla ceme n t Shipmen t s New Constr u c ti on Shipmen t s Tota l Sh ip men t s (2012 -2042) Lumen Gr ow th Ra te

• Pr oduct M i xo fSh ipments • Pr oduct M i x o fI n ve ntor y

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## 2011 Fluo res cent L a mp Stocks
 NEM A pr o v ide d data fro m 2001 to 2005 for f l uor escent la mp s h i p men t s  DOE assu mes t h at NEM Ashi p men t s rep r esen t 90 %o fto tal fl uorescent la mp ship men t s  2011 la mp s t oc ks calcu lated fr om la mp a vera g e li fe ti mes de ter m ine d b y assumed marke tsha r es o f la m p in ve nt or y in 2 011
Lamp T y pe Lamp Stock (m il li o n s ) 4 - f o otT 8 m e d i um bi pi n 1,670 4- foo tT12 medi um bip i n 626 8- foo t T8 si ngle pin sl i m l i ne 28 8- foo t T12 si ngl e pin sl i m l i ne 72 8- foo t T8 recess ed dou ble con t a c t H O 1 8- foo t T12 reces sed dou ble con t act H O 63
5

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Base -Ca se S h ipment Fo r ecas t Assu mptions : 4-foo t Med i um Bipin  New Cons truc tion: Ex p one n t ia l gro w t h of tota l lume ns s e r v ic e d b y 4 -foot me diu m bipi n la mps a nd 8 -foots i nglep i n s l imli nela mps



# • 1.6% annual gro wth rate ob tained f r om gro w th in C BEC S commercial build ing floor space 

# • All newconstruct i on results in the purc hase of 4
- fo ot T8 lamp-and -b allast sy stems 

###  Ballast Rep l a cemen t: 14 ye ar b a llast ser v i ce lifetime 

# • No new 4- foot T1 2 MBP magnetic ballastpurchases afte r 2009 (200 0 Ballast Rulemaking) 

# • As 4-foot T8 , 4
- f oot T12 , and so me 8
- fo o tT12 SP slimline ba llasts retire , ne w 4-foo tT8 lamp-a nd-ballast sy ste m s are pu rchased as s y stem replacements 

###  Cu rren t l y , th e mo d e l assu mes co mme rcia l o p e ratin g h o u r s an d electricit yp r ic es

6

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Base -Ca se S h ipment Fo r ecas t Assu mptions : 8-foot SP Slimline
 No new c ons t r uc tion mode l e d 

# • Historica l sh ipments indicate a de cli ne in total 8-fo ot SP slim line shipments 

###  Ballast Rep l a cemen t: 14 ye ar b a llast ser v i ce lifetime 

# • No new 8- foot T1 2 SP slimline magnetic ballast purchases after2009 (2000 Balla s t Rulemaking) 

# • As 8-foot T12 SP slimline ballasts retire , 10 % o f tho s e sy s t ems a r e r eplaced w i th 8
- foo tT8 SP slimline lamp-and-ballast sy ste m s and 90% are re placed w i th t w o 4- foot T 8 MBP lamp-and -ballast sy ste m s 

# • As 8-foot T8 SP slimline ba llast re ti re, ne w 8- foot T 8 SP slimline lamp-and
ballast sy ste m s a r e pu rchased as sy ste m replacements 

###  Cu rren t l y , th e mo d e l assu mes co mme rcia l o p e ratin g h o u r s an d electricit yp r ic es

7

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Base -Ca se S h ipment Fo r ecas t Assu mptions : 8- foo t RDC High Ou tpu t
 No new c ons t r uc tion mode l e d 

# • Historica l sh ipments indicate relatively flat 8- foot R DC HO shipments 

# • All newconstruct i on assumed to b e serviced by oth e r technolog ies ( e.g. , T 5 ) 

###  In itial (2012) s t o ck o fo n lyT 12 lamp s are mo d e led 

# • T8 lamps accounted fo rless than 2% o f total 8- foot RDC HO shipments in 2005 

###  Ballast Rep l a cemen t: 10 ye ar b a llast ser v i ce lifetime 

# • As 8-foot T12 RDC HO ballasts retire, ne w electro n ic 8-foot T12 R DC HO lamp-and-ballast sy ste m s a r e pu rc hased as sy s t em replacements 

###  Currentl y , the model assumes i ndustrial operat ing hours and electricit yp r ic es

8

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Base-Cas e Marke t-Sh a re Ma trices

 Tw o base-case market share (product mix) inputs f o r each lamp ty pe:



# • Product mix ofth e lamp and balla st inventory in 2011 

# • Product mix ofn e ws y s t em shipments af terf r om 2 012 to 2042 

###  T h esh ip men t mo d e l assu mes th at w h e n a lamp fails it is rep l aced w i th th e same lamp  KeyInputs int o the Matrices: 

# • Lamp w a t t age distributions ( e.g. , 32W, 30W, 28W, 25W) 

# • Lamp ef ficacy di stributions (CSLs) 

# • Balla s t facto r dist ributions ( e.g. , 0

. 88, 0.78 , 0

. 75) 

# • Correlation of the above prope rtie s to ob tain sy s t e m distributions

9

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## 4-foo t Med i um Bipin Ba s e -Case Mar ket Shar e M a trix Inpu ts 4 - f o ot T 8 M B P El e c t ro n i c Sy st em s Syst em Characteris t i c 2012 Shipment Distr i bu ti on 2042 Shipment Distr i bu ti on Lamp Watt ag e 32W 90 % 60 % 30W 4% 15 % 28W 6% 17 % 25W 0% 8% Lamp Eff i cac y CSL2 43 % 12 % CSL3 29 % 10 % CSL4 15 % 35 % CSL5 13 % 43 % Ballast Factor 0.88 90 % 54 % 0.78 5% 33 % 0.75 5% 13 % 4- foo tT12 MBP Magne tic Syst em s Syst em Characteris t i c 2012 I n ve n t o r y Distr i bu ti on Lamp Watt ag e 40W 31 % 34W 69 % Lamp Eff i cac y CSL0 56 % CSL1 22 % CSL2 14 % CSL3 8% Comp lete 4 - foo t MBP base case marke ts h are ma tr ices are presen ted i n Tab l es 9 . 3.3 and 9.3 . 4 in Cha p ter9 o ft h e AN O P R T S D . 10

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Example Base-Case Market Share Ma trix: 4 - foot T8 MBP

CS L Lamp Eff i ca cy Lamp W a tta ge Lamp Li fe ti me S yst em Inpu t Po w e r Inst alled Lamp Pri c e M i x ofS yst ems Purcha s e d in

2 0 1 2 and Ea rlie r Mi xof S yst em s Purcha s e d in 20 42 lm/W W hrs W $ % %

BF 0.8 8 2 86

. 2 32

. 5 20 , 0 00 87

. 5 3.9 3 43 8 3 90

. 8 32

. 5 20 , 0 00 87

. 5 4.9 6 29 10 4 92

. 3 32

. 5 24 , 0 00 87

. 5 5.1 0 11 14 4 95

. 0 30

. 0 18 , 0 00 80

. 5 5.3 9 0 3 5 95

. 4 32

. 5 24 , 0 00 87

. 5 5.6 2 7 12 5 97

. 3 28

. 0 18 , 0 00 71

. 1 5.1 9 0 3 5 96

. 0 25

. 0 24 , 0 00 66

. 8 6.6 4 0 4

0.7 8 2 86

. 2 32

. 5 20 , 0 00 78

. 5 3.9 3 0 4 3 90

. 8 32

. 5 20 , 0 00 78

. 5 4.9 6 0 0 4 92

. 3 32

. 5 24 , 0 00 78

. 5 5.1 0 0 6 4 95

. 0 30

. 0 18 , 0 00 72

. 4 5.3 9 2 6 5 95

. 4 32

. 5 24 , 0 00 78

. 5 5.6 2 0 6 5 97

. 3 28

. 0 18 , 0 00 63

. 3 5.1 9 3 7 5 96

. 0 25

. 0 24 , 0 00 58

. 1 6.6 4 0 4

0.7 5 2 86

. 2 32

. 5 20 , 0 00 75

. 9 3.9 3 0 0 3 90

. 8 32

. 5 20 , 0 00 75

. 9 4.9 6 0 0 4 92

. 3 32

. 5 24 , 0 00 75

. 9 5.1 0 0 0 4 95

. 0 30

. 0 18 , 0 00 70

. 0 5.3 9 2 6 5 95

. 4 32

. 5 24 , 0 00 75

. 9 5.6 2 0 0 5 97

. 3 28

. 0 18 , 0 00 60

. 9 5.1 9 3 7 5 96

. 0 25

. 0 24 , 0 00 55

. 5 6.6 4 0 0 Total 10 0 10 0 11

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## 8-fo ot SP Slimline Bas e -Case Market Share Ma trix In pu ts

53 % 8% CSL5 27 % 48 % CSL4 20 % 44 % CSL3 Lamp Eff i cac y 8- foo t T12 SP Sl im line Ma gne tic Syst em s 8- foo t T8 SP Sli m l i ne Elec tr oni c S y s t ems Syst em 2012 2042 Characteris t ic Syst em 2012 Distr i bu ti on Shipment Shipment Characteris t i c I n ve n t o r y Distr i bu ti on Distr i bu ti on 59W 100 % 70 % Lamp 75W 63 % Lamp 57W 0% 15 % Watt ag e Watt ag e 60W 37 % 55W 0% 15 %

0.88 70 % 40 % Ballast 0.85 15 % 33 % Factor 0.78 15 % 27 % 41 % CSL1
8% CSL3 19 % CSL2 32 % CSL0 Lamp Eff i cac y Comp lete 8 - foo t SP sli m l i ne base-case market share mat r ic es are presen ted i n Tab l es 9 . 3.5 a nd 9.3.6 in Chap ter9 o f t h e A N OP R TSD. 12

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## 8-fo ot RDC HO Bas e -Case Marke tShare Matri x Inp u ts

8- foo tT12 RDC High Ou tpu t Ele c tron ic Syst em s Syst em Characteris t i c 2012 Shipment Distr i bu ti on 2042 Shipment Distr i bu ti on Lamp Watt ag e 110W 60 % 34 % 95W 40 % 66 % Lamp Eff i cac y CSL0 54 % 15 % CSL1 21 % 25 % CSL3 7% 21 % CSL3 18 % 39 % Ballast Factor 0.90 33 % 33 % 0.89 33 % 35 % 0.88 34 % 32 % Comp lete 8 - f o o t RDC HO base-case market share mat r ices are pr esented in Table 9 . 3.8 i n C h apter9 o f the A N O P R TSD
.

13

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Base-Cas e Shipment Results : 4-fo ot Me dium Bipin
N e wConst r uct i on 7% 1.0

Lam p R e pl acem ent 63% 0.9

200 0 2004 2 008 2012 2016 2020 2 024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Ye a r 4- f oot T8 M B P

4- f oot T 12 M B PShipments (billions) 0.8 0.7 Bal l ast R e p l acem ent 30% 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



###  4 -foot T8 MBP s h ipme nts gr o w d u eto ne w c ons truc tio n a nd re trofitting of 4 -foot T1 2 a n d 8 -foot T1 2 SP Slimli nes y ste m s  2000 B a llast R u le effecti vel yelimin ates the sale o f4-fo ot T 12 MBP mag n e tic b a llasts cau sin g T 12 lamp sh ipmen t s to reac h zero b y 2022 14

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

15 Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Base-Cas e Shipment Results : 8-fo ot SP Slimline

Bal l a s t R e p l a cem e n t 22 %

La m p R e p l a cem e n t 78 % 0. 0 0 0. 0 1 0. 0 2 0. 0 3 0. 0 4 0. 0 5 0. 0 6

20 00 20 04 20 08 20 12 20 16 20 20 20 24 2 028 20 32 2 036 2 0 4 0 Y earShipments(billions)

8
- fo o t T8 SP 8
- f o ot T 12 S P



###  8-fo o tT 8 SP s limlin e ship m e n t s sh o w slig h tg r ow th d u e to th e retro f ittin g o f so me 8-fo o tT12 SP slimlin esystem s  2000 B a llast R u le effecti vel yelimin ates the sale o f8-fo ot T 12 SP mag n e tic b a llasts cau sin g T 12 lamp sh ipmen t s to reac h zero b y 2022

16 Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Base-Cas e Shipment Results : 8-fo ot RDC Hi g h Outpu t

B a lla s t R e p l ac em en t 20 %

La m p R e pl ace m e nt 80% 0. 00 0. 01 0. 01 0. 02 0. 02 0. 03 0. 03 0. 04

20 00 2 0 0 4 20 08 2 0 1 2 20 16 2 0 2 0 20 24 2 0 2 8 20 32 2 0 3 6 20 40 Y

earShipments (billions)

8- f oot T 8 RDC HO 8- f oot T 12 RDC HO



###  8-foot T12 RDC HO shipments are projected to be flat due to pe ne tra t ion ofothe r te c hnol ogie s

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

17 Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Flu o rescen t Stan dards -Case Shi p ment Meth odo lo g y

# ofL a m p s i n t h e In v e n t o r y in 20 11 Extra polat ed S h i p m e nt s to 2 011

# o fS ystems in th e In v e n t o r y in 20 11 Tota l Lumen s i n 201 1

Lumen D e mand S ystem A g e Di stri bu ti on NEM A Hi stor ical Shipmen t s ( 2 00 1- 2 0 0 5 ) Average Lamp Li fe ti m ei n 2 0 1 1 Lamps per S ystem Bal l ast Shipmen t Census Data

Charac teris t ic Lamp and Bal l ast Li fe ti m e s M a rketShares o f t h e L a m pan d B a ll as t In v e n t o r y in 201 1

S t a n da r d s- Ca se M a rketShares o f Lamp and Ba llas t Sh ip men t s in 20 12 - 204 2 Lumen Gr ow th Ra te

• Pr oduct M i xo fSh ipments • Pr oduct M i x o fI n ve ntor y Retr ofi tRate Lamp Repla ceme n t Shipmen t s Bal l ast Repla ceme n t Shipmen t s New Constr u c ti on Shipmen t s Tota l Sh ip men t s Retr ofi t Shipmen t s

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Flu o rescen t Stan dards -Case Shi p ment Meth odo lo g y

 De ve lo p stan d a rd s-cas e m a rket- s h a re m a trices 

# • Use shipment sc enarios to charac teri ze how consumers w ill change purchase decisio ns w i th st andards 

# • Standards-case market shar e ma trices show movement to higher efficacy lamps and alternate BF ballasts 

# • Separate standa r d s-case market
- s hare ma t r ices for lamp replacements on existing balla sts and fo r ne ws y s t em pu rchases 

###  In co rp o r ate stan d a rd s-in d u ced retro f its 

# • Assumes that th e increased first- cost of higher -ef f i ca cy 4- foot T12 MBP and 8-foo tT12 SP lamps w ill result in additi ona l vo lunt ary ret r ofits in th e standards case 

# • Mandato ry T12 b a llast ret r ofits w h en no standa rd-c ompliant T12 lamps are availab l e 

###  Recalculate shipments and stock product mixes

18

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Flu o rescen t Stan dards -Case Shi p ment Scen arios

 Scen ario s co n s id er lamp price, s y ste m lu men o u t pu t, an d sy st em e n e r g yc ons umption a s dri v ers for c onsume rpurc h a s e s  Roll-up Sc e n a r io – “ low e r b ound of e n e r g ysa v i ngs ” 

# • Onl y consume r s purchasing belo w the candidate standard level analy z ed, change purchase decisions in the standards case. 

# • These consumer s purchase the lo w e st first cost lamp option 

###  Shift Sc e n a r io – “ uppe r b o u nd ofe n e r gy s a v i ngs ” 

# • All consumers re evaluate their la mp and ballast purchase decision s 

# • Consumers cur r e n tly purchasing t he lo w e st ef ficacy op tion, purchas e the low e st first cost s t andards compliant lamp option 

# • All other consum ers pu rchase the low e st first-cost , energ y -saving option

19

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Flu o rescen t Lamp Sta ndards -Cas e Retro f its  In creased Vo lu n t aryMag n e tic T 12 Ballast Retro f it at all CSL s 

# • Curren t t r ends indicate that consumers a r e re t r ofitting their e x isting 4-foo tT12 MBP and 8- foot T12 SP slimline magneticsy s t em s and are replacing them w i th the cor r espo nding more cost
- e ffective T8 electronic sy s t ems Increa sed eff i c a c y stan dard Increa sed T12 lamp pr i c e Increa sed T12 retro f its 

# • Increasing ret r o f it rate of4- foot T 12 MBP and 8
- fo ot T12 SP s y ste m s in the standards case a teach CSL CSL Retro f i tRa te ( % rema ini ng s t oc k per year )

1 10 % 2 20 % 3 30 % 4 40 % 5 50 % 

###  Ma nda toryT12 Ba lla s tRe trofit 

# • At CSL4 and CSL5, no T12 lamp s are s t andards
- c ompliant. The r e f ore , upon T12 lamp failure, the en tire T12 lamp-and -ballast sy s t em is ret r o f itte d and replaced w i th a T 8 s y stem

. 20

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Flu o rescen t Shipmen t Forecas ts
DOE invites comment on the methodol ogy and data sources used to estimate in itial lamp s sto cks in 2011. (Issue #11) DOE in vites co mmen t o n the flu o r escen t base-ca se an d stan d a rdscase m a rk et s h are matric es. (Issue #10, Issu e #12) DOE in vites co mmen t o n the flu o r escen t base-ca se sh ip men t fo recast s. (Issu e #11) DOE in vites co mmen t o n a

p

p r

o

p r

iate stan d a rd s-case v o lun t ary magn e tic T 12 ba llast retro f it rates fo r th e 4-fo o t MBP and 8-fo o t SP slimlin e. (Issue #11) DOE in vites co mmen t o n the sh ip men t scen ario s an alyzed an d o t h er scenarios DO E should anal yze for GSFL. (Issue #12)

21

22 Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Incandesc en t Re fl ec tor L a mp Bas e -Case Shipme nt Me thodology

L a m p s in t h e In v e n t o r y in 20 11 Extra polat ed S h i p m e nt s to 2 011 NEM A Hi stor ical Shipmen t s ( 2 00 1- 2 0 0 5 ) M a rketShares o f theLamp I n v e ntory in 20 11

M a rketShares o f theLamp I n v e ntory in 20 12 -2 042 Lamp Repla ceme n t Shipmen t s New Constr u c ti on Shipmen t s Tota l Sh ip men t s Rateof New Cons tr uc tion

• Pr oduct M i xo fSh ipments • Pr oduct M i x o fI n ve ntor y # ofL a m p s i n t h e In v e n t o r y in 20 12 - 204 2 Hi sto r ical Shipmen t s o f Co ve r e d La m p s by Secto r

Emer g i n g Tech nologi e s

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Base-Cas e Shipments Forecas ts: IRL 2011 L a mp Stock
 NEM A da ta pro v ide s his t oric a l s h ipme nts for no n-ha lo g e n a nd ha loge n IRL  A ssum p tions : 

# • NEMA shipme nts represent 8 5 % of total IRL shipments 

# • DOE estimates that EISA 2007 exem pts app roximatel y6 0 % of nonhalo gen IRL 

# • Non-h a lo gen s h ipme nts: 33 percent serve th e commercia l sector, 67 percent serve t he resid entia l sector 

# • Halo gen sh ipm ents: 60 perce nt se rve the commercial secto r , 40 percent serve t he resid entia l sector  In stalled sto c k o fco ve r e d IRL in 2011 

# • Resid entia l sec t or: 297 milli on lamps 

# • Commerci a l se ctor: 77 millio n lamps
23

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## IRL Stock Projecti on Assumpti o n s

 New Co n s tru c tio n : Expo n e ntial g r o w th in IRL so ckets 

# • Historical annual gro wth rate of IR L stock is estimated to b e 8-10%. Ho w e v e r, this gro wth ma y be unsustain abl e. 

# • DOE uses buil d ing flo o r spac e gro wth to esti mate ne w cons truction gro wth

– 1 .3% sockets/y ear in the resi d ential sector (R ECS buil d in g floor

space)

– 1 .6% sockets/y ear in the com m ercial sector (CBECS bui ldi ng

floor space)  DOE assumes other technologies like reflector CFL, ceramic metal h a lid e, and solid state lig h t in g w i ll p e n e trate th e IRL market: ~ 5 0 % IRL so ckets in 2042

242 01

1 20 1 4 201 7 2 02

0 202 3 202 6 20 2 9 203 2 203 5 2 03

8 204 1 

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## IRL S tock Projec tion

0 100 200 300 400 500 600ReflectorLampSockets (millions)

Cov e r e d I n cand e sce nt Re fle c to rLam p s Em e r ging Te ch nologi e s



### Y

ear 25

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Base-Cas e Marke t-Sh a re Ma trices : IRL  A n a l yz ed three l u men packages : 

## • 2 7 % at 5 8 0 lu m e n s (5 0WHa lo ge n ba se l i n e) 

## • 3 2 % at 1 , 0 5 0 lu m e n s (7 5WHa lo ge n ba se l i n e) 

## • 41% a t1,31 0 l u me ns (9 0 W Hal oge n ba selin e)  Resident ial s t oc k: 100 % ha loge n throu ghou t t h e anal y s is per i o d  Com m ercia l s t o ck: 80 % h a lo ge n and 20 % HIR i n 2012 50 %ha loge n an d 50 % HIR in 20 42 Comme r c ial So c ket s Lamp De sign St ock in 20 11 St ock in 20 42 90 W , 1 4

. 6 l m / W , 2, 50 0 hr s, Ha l o gen 33 % 21 % 75 W , 1 4

. 0 l m / W , 2, 50 0 hr s, Ha l o gen 26 % 16 % 5 0 W , 11 .6 lm / W , 300 0 h r s , Ha l o gen 22 % 14 % 70 W , 1 8

. 0 l m / W , 3, 00 0 hr s, H I R 8% 21 % 60 W , 1 7

. 5 l m / W , 3, 00 0 hr s, H I R 6% 16 % 4 1

. 3 W , 15 lm / W , 300 0 h r s , HI R 5% 14 % Re sidential Soc kets Lamp De sign St ock in 20 11 St ock in 20 42 90 W , 1 4

. 6 l m / W , 2, 50 0 hr s, Ha l o gen 41 % 41 % 75 W , 1 4

. 0 l m / W , 2, 50 0 hr s, Ha l o gen 32 % 32 % 5 0 W , 11 .6 l m / W , 300 0 h r s , Ha l o gen 27 % 27 %

26

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

27 Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## IRL Base -Case Shipme nt F o recas ts

Com m ercia l Se ctor Resident ial Sector 

###  Sh ip men t s calcu lated b ytra ckin g th e retiremen t(b ased o n lifetime) of IRL in t h e stock  Base- cas e sh ip men td eclin ecau sed b y : 

# • Increased penet r a tion of reflector CFLs and othe r emerging technologies 

# • Shift tow a rds longer-lived HIR lamps in the com m e rcial se ctor

0.0 0 0.0 2 0.0 4 0.0 6 0.0 8 0.1 0 0.1 2

20 00 2 004 2 008 201 2 2 0 1 6 2 020 2 024 2 028 203 2 203 6 2 0 4 0 Ye arShipments (billions)

B a se- C a s e For e ca st
H i st or i c a l Sh ip ment s 0. 00 0. 02 0. 04 0. 06 0. 08 0. 10 0. 12

2000 20 04 2 008 2012 201 6 2 0 2 0 2 024 2028 203 2 2 0 3 6 2040 Yea rShipments (billions)

Ba s e - C a s e F o r e c a st H i st o r ica l S h ip m e n t s

28 Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Incandesc en t Re fl ec tor L a mp Standa r d s-Ca se Shi p ment Me thodology

L a m p s in t h e In v e n t o r y in 20 11 Extra polat ed S h i p m e nt s to 2 011 NEM A Hi stor ical Shipmen t s ( 2 00 1- 2 0 0 5 ) M a rketShares o f theLamp I n v e ntory in 20 11

S t a n da r d s- Ca se M a rketShares o f theLamp I n v e ntory in 20 12 -2 042 Lamp Repla ceme n t Shipmen t s New Constr u c ti on Shipmen t s Tota l Sh ip men t s Rateof New Cons tr uc tion

• Pr oduct M i xo fSh ipments • Pr oduct M i x o fI n ve ntor y # ofL a m p s i n t h e In v e n t o r y in 20 12 - 204 2 Hi sto r ical Shipmen t s o f Co ve r e d La m p s by Secto r

Emer g i n g Tech nologi e s

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Incan desce nt Re flector Lamp Sta n dards Cas e Scenarios
 Sto ck o fIRL lamp s in th e stan d a rd s-cas e is th e same a s th e sto ck o fIRL lamp s in th e b ase-case in all scen ario s.  Ma in Sc e n a r io – “ uppe r b o u nd ofe n e r gy s a v i ngs ” 

# • Assumes all base-case IRL cons umer s continue t o purchase regulated IRL products 

# • All IRL consumer s purchase low e st first cost, higher e fficacy, reduc edw a t t age lamps in the s t andards c a se (light output of standa rds-co mpliant lamp is same as baseline lamp) 

###  6 5 WBR La mp Subs titut i on Se ns iti v ity– “ re duc e d e n e r gys a v i ngs ” 

# • Accounts for sta ndards case ma r k et migration to t he exemp t ed 65 W B R30 and BR40 lamps 

# • 65W BR lamp is a direct replacem ent fo rthe 50W PAR base l ine la mp. 

###  10 %L u m en Increa se Sen s itiv i t y– “ r e d u c e d en erg ysa v i n g s ” 

# • Reside ntia l consumers pu rchase same- w at tage, hi gher- w a ttage , an d reduced- w a t t age lamp designs 

# • Results in an overall in crease in lu mens 29

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## IRL Main Sc enario : Com m erci al Standards - Cas e Marke t Shar e Ma tr ices
CS L Lamp De sign St ock in 20 11* St ock in 20 13* * St ock in 20 42 % % % 90 W , 1 4

. 6 l m / W , 2, 50 0 hr s, H a l o g e n 33 21 75 W , 1 4

. 0 l m / W , 2, 50 0 hr s, H a l o g e n 26 16 5 0 W , 11 .6 l m / W , 300 0 h r s , H a lo g e n 22 14 B a se C a s e 70 W , 1 8

. 0 l m / W , 3, 00 0 hr s, H I R 8 21 60 W , 1 7

. 5 l m / W , 3, 00 0 hr s, H I R 6 16 4 1 .3 W , 15 l m / W , 300 0 h r s , H I R 5 14 Total 10 0 10 0 79 W , 1 6

. 6 l m / W , 3 0 00 hr s, Improv ed H a l o g e n 32 21 66 W , 1 5

. 9 l m / W , 3 0 00 hr s, Improv ed H a l o g e n 25 16 44. 3 W , 1 4 l m / W , 3 0 00 hr s, Improv ed H a l o g e n 21 14 CS L1 7 0 W , 18 l m / W , 3000 hrs , HI R 9 21 6 0 W , 17 .5 l m / W , 300 0 h r s , H I R 7 16 4 1 .3 W , 15 l m / W , 300 0 h r s , H I R 6 14 Total 10 0 10 0 70 W , 1 8 l m / W , 3, 0 0 0 hr s, H I R 41 41 CS L2 60 W , 1 7

. 5 l m / W , 3, 00 0 hr s, H I R 32 32 4 1 .3 W , 15 l m / W , 300 0 h r s , H I R 27 27 Total 66 W , 1 9

. 8 l m / W , 4, 00 0 hr s, Im prov ed H I R 41 41 CS L3 55 W , 1 9

. 1 l m / W , 4, 00 0 hr s, Im prov ed H I R 32 32 40 W , 1 7 l m / W , 4, 0 0 0 hr s, Im pr ov e d H I R 27 27 Total 10 0 10 0 *Base-Ca se Inp u tOnly **Sta nd ard s -Case Inpu t Only ( 2 0 1 3is the y ear w hen stand ard s - c omplia n tl a m p s a r e able to fill all so c k e t s. 30

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## IRL Main Sc enario : Re si dentia l Stan dards Ca se Marke t Shar e Ma tr ices

CS L Lamp De sign St ock in 20 11* St ock in 20 15* * St ock in 20 42 % % % 90 W , 1 4

. 6 l m / W , 2, 50 0 hr s, H a l o g e n 41 41 B a se C a s e 75 W , 1 4

. 0 l m / W , 2, 50 0 hr s, H a l o g e n 32 32 5 0 W , 11 .6 lm / W , 300 0 h r s , Ha l o g e n 27 27 Total 10 0 10 0 79 W , 1 6

. 6 l m / W , 3 0 0 0 hr s, Improv ed H a l o g e n 41 41 CS L1 66 W , 1 5

. 9 l m / W , 3 0 0 0 hr s, Improv ed H a l o g e n 32 32 44. 3 W , 1 4 l m / W , 3 0 0 0 hr s, Improv ed H a l o g e n 27 27 Total 10 0 10 0 70 W , 1 8 l m / W , 3, 0 0 0 hr s, H I R 41 41 CS L2 60 W , 1 7

. 5 l m / W , 3, 00 0 hr s, H I R 32 32 4 1

. 3 W , 15 lm / W , 300 0 h r s , HI R 27 27 Total 66 W , 1 9

. 8 l m / W , 4, 00 0 hr s, Im prov ed H I R 41 41 CS L3 55 W , 1 9

. 1 l m / W , 4, 00 0 hr s, Im prov ed H I R 32 32 40 W , 1 7 l m / W , 4, 0 0 0 hr s, Im pr ov e d H I R 27 27 Total 10 0 10 0 *Base-Ca se Inp u tOnly **Sta nd ard s -Case Inpu t Only ( 2 0 1 5 is the y ear w hen all stand ar ds-compli a n tl a mp s ar e abl e to fill all so cke t s.
31

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## IRL Shi p ment F o recas ts DOE inv ites c o mment on th e me thodolog y

us e d to i n c o rpora t e emerging technologies in t h e base-case IRL forecast. (Issue #11) DOE in vites co mmen t o n the assump tio n s d

i scussed in clu d i ng IRL o

p erating secto r s, market s h ares o f in can d escen t an d halogen IRL, a n d mark et sh are s o f exemp t ed IRL . (Issue #11) DOE invites comment on the population of IRL base-case and stan d a rd s-ca s e mark et sh ar e matrice s . (Issue #10, Issue #12) DOE inv ites c o mment on th e na tiona l lum en outp u t pro j e c t ion in bot h th e stan d a rd s case an d base case. Sp ecif i cally DOE in v ites co mmen t o n wh eth er an y sh ip men t o r sto ck ad justmen t s are n e c essa ry in response to over-lighting or under-lighting. (Issue #11) DOE in vites co mmen t o n stan d a rd s-cas e sh ip men t scen ario s an alyzed fo r in can d escen t reflecto r lamp s. (Issue #12) 32

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Natio nal En erg ySavin gs In pu ts
 Produc t Stoc k byDe s i gn 

# • Tracked b yshipments, ma rket -shar e mat r ices, and product re tire ments 

###  Unit A nnua l Ene r gyCons u m ption 

# • Per unit values for each lamp o rlamp-and -ballast sy ste m as developed b y the Energ y -Use Characte rization 

###  Electricit ySite-to -So u r ce Co n ver sio n F acto r s 

# • Conversion factors fo recast using 2007 Annual Ene r gy Ou tlook (2030-2042 estim a ted using 2020-2030 fo reca st t r ends) 

# • Factors va ryann ually and account fo rgenera t ion, distribution, and transmission lo sses 

###  HV A C Interaction 

# • Commercial and industria l sector: 6.25% (2000 Ballast rulemaking) 

# • No HVAC modeled in the residentia l sector 

###  Re bound Ra te 

# • Accounts for incr eased lighting usage due to low e r operating costs in the standards case 

# • Commercial and Industrial sectors: 1 % , Residentia l sector : 8.5 % 33

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Natio nal En erg ySavin gs In pu ts DOE in vites co mmen t o n the HVAC in tera ctio n implemen ted in th e co mmer cial an d resid en t ial secto r s. DOE inv ites c o mment on th e inclus io n a n d the magnitu de of the rebound effect for purposes analyzing t h e expected effects of this re

gula t ion.

34

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Net Presen t Value In pu ts
 Shipme nts byProduc t De s i gn 

# • Taken f r om shipments anal y s is 

###  Per Unit Instal led Cost 

# • Taken f r om LCC and Product P r ice Deter m ination ( p rices and labor costs) 

###  Electricit yPrices 

# • Average prices t a ken fro m LCC a naly s is 

# • Future ene rg y pri c es adju s ted according to t r end fo recasted b y the 2007 Annual En ergy Outlook 

###  Dis c ount Ra te 

# • 7% and 3% real f r om OMB’s R egulatory Analy s is Circular A-4 

# • Future e x penses discounted to 20 07, reported in 2 006$ 

###  DOE also calculates a residua l v a lue in 2042 to account for remain in g life o fin stalled la mp s in th e b ase cas e an d stan d a rd s case. DOE inv ites c o mment on it s

usage of res i dua l v a lue t

o a c c ount for the remaining lifetime of lamps. 35

36 Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Gene ral Se rv ice Fluores cent L a mps NES and NPV Results (Shift Scen a r io, 7 %Discount Ra te )

4 - f o o t M e di um B i pi n

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

C S L1 C S L2 C S L3 C S L4 C S L5EnergySavings(Quads)

0 5 10 15 20 25NPV(Billion$)

En e rg y S a vi n g s NP V 8 - f o ot Si ng le P i n Sl im li n e

0 0. 05 0. 1 0. 15 0. 2 0. 25 0. 3 0. 35 0. 4 0. 45

C S L1 C S L2 C S L3 C S L4 C S L5EnergySavings(Quads)

-0 .1 0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8NPV(Billion$)

En e rg y Sa vi n g s NP V

8 - fo o t Re ce ss e d Do u b l e Co n t ac t Hi g h Ou t p u t

0 0. 5 1 1. 5 2 2. 5

C S L1 C S L2 C S L3 C S L4 C S L5EnergySavings(Quads)

0 0. 5 1 1. 5 2 2. 5 3 3. 5 4NPV(Billion$)

En e rg y S a vi n g s NP V

## Gener al Service Flu o resc ent Lam p and Incandescent Refle c to r Lam p Mar c h1 0 -11, 2 008 Energ y C o n s erv ati o n Stan dar dANOPR Pub lic M e etin g

37 Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## Incandesc en t Re fl ec tor NES and NPV Resul t s (M ain Scena r io, 7 %Discount Ra te )

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3

CSL 1 CSL 2 CS L 3EnergySavings(Quads)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7NPV(Billion$)

En e rg y Sa vi n g s NP V

Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is 

## ANOPR Iss ues for Pub lic Comment

 Base- Cas ean d Stan d a rd s-Case Ma rket Sh are Matrice s (Issu e #10)  Sh ip men tFo recast s (Issu e #11)  Base- Cas ean d Stan d a rd s-Case F o r ec as ted Efficien cies (Issu e #12)  NES a nd NPV Ca lc ula t ion I n puts

38