Natural Haze Levels II:Application of the New IMPROVEAlgorithm to Natural SpeciesConcentrations EstimatesFinal Report by theNatural Haze Levels II Committee to theRPO Monitoring/Data Analysis WorkgroupNote:This presentation contains substantial additional information in the notessection of PowerPoint that can be seen in the bottom panel of the “Normal”view mode, and can be printed by selecting “Notes Pages” from the “Printwhat” selection of the “Print” menu (go to “Files” on the top tool bar and select“Print”). You can also use “Preview” for the “Notes Pages” to more easily readthe notes on your computer monitor.These notes were prepared1.to aid those hearing the presentation by relieving them of the burden of takingas many notes;2.to allow those who haven’t heard the presentation to understand it by providingthe additional information that isspoken during presentations; and3.to provide a more complete documentation of the natural haze levels IIapproach for anyone who may want to understand itFor additional information contact Marc Pitchford atMarc.Pitchford@NOAA.govOverall Goal•Estimate 20% best and 20% worst natural hazelevels for visibility-protected class I areas usingthe new IMPROVE algorithm for estimating lightextinction from aerosol species concentrations.–Needed for Regional Haze Rule (RHR) rate of progressglide slopes where the new IMPROVE algorithm isused to characterize current haze levels–Should minimize the technical problems identified inthe RHR default natural haze levels that weredeveloped using the original IMPROVE algorithmDefault Natural Haze Levels Approach•Typical haze level estimates for East and West–Typical light extinction by applying the originalIMPROVE algorithm to Trijonis natural speciesconcentration estimates for East and West–Convert to haze index (deciview units)•20% best and 20% worst haze estimate for Eastand West–Best = typical – 1.28(standard deviation)–Worst = typical + 1.28(standard deviation)–Standard deviation is 3dv for the East and 2dv for theWest (corresponds to the 10thand 90thpercentile)Criticism of the Default Approach•Limitations of the original IMPROVE algorithm–Biased light extinction estimates at the extremes–Uses an outdated organic compound mass to carbonmass ratio–No sea salt (important at a few sites)–Rayleigh scattering of 10Mm-1used for all site•Flawed assumptions used to estimate 20% bestand worst conditions–Haze index for natural conditions are not likely to benormally distributed due to inclusion of Rayleighscattering–10thand 90thpercentiles don’t correspond to the bestand worst conditions if the distribution were normalNatural Haze Levels II Approach•Adjust each of the measured major speciesconcentrations to the Trijonis natural concentrationestimates–Multiply each species concentration at a site by the sitespecific ratio of the (Trijonis natural estimate) divided by the(annual mean concentration) for the species for the 5 yearbaseline period–If the annual mean concentration for a species is smaller thanthe Trijonis natural estimate, make no adjustment–Current sea salt levels are taken to be natural levels•Apply the new IMPROVE algorithm to the Trijonisadjusted species concentrationsat each site to producea distribution of natural light extinction values•Convert to deciview and calculate the mean of the 20%best and 20% worst haze levelsTrijonis-Adjusted Specie Frequency Distributions•Sipsey Alabama•Each aerosol speciesmass concentrationfrequency distributionscaled to estimated naturalmass concentrations•If current species mean isless than natural estimate,the that species is notscaled•Geometric shape ofspecies distributions isunchangedCurrent 2000-2004Natural EstimateHanging barsSolid - current meanDashed - natural estimate meanCurrent and Natural Haze Frequency Distributions•Sipsey Alabama•Natural scenario joint distribution shape is derived from scaling currentaerosol species mass concentrations to natural condition estimates•Allows estimation of best and worst 20% dv or aerosol speciesextinctionNatural Haze Levels IIDefault Natural Haze LevelsNatural Haze Levels II,10-Year Rate of Progress Glide PathDefault Natural Haze Levels,10-Year Rate of Progress Glide PathStatus and Next Steps•This presentation is the final report of the NaturalHaze Levels II Committee of the RPOMonitoring/Data Analysis Workgroup•Review comments received by August 25, 2006will be considered in preparation of the RPOMonitoring/Data Analysis Workgroup approvedapproach•Workgroup approved approach is forwarded to theRPOs for their consideration by August 31, 2006•This presentation, including the natural hazeestimates and any modifications will be madeavailable on VIEWSAppendix•Tables of Natural Haze Level II Estimatesfor all IMPROVE Sites by RPO and StateSiteNameStateCompleteYearsWorstHazeNatural II(dv)WorstHazeBaseline(dv)10-yearGlideSlope (dv)Class I Area(s)CACR1Caney CreekArkansas311.726.42.4Caney CreekUPBU1Upper Buffalo WildernessArkansas511.726.32.4Upper BuffaloBRET1Breton*Louisiana412.30.00.0BretonBOWA1Boundary Waters Canoe AreaMinnesota211.620.01.4Boundary Waters Canoe AreaVOYA2Voyageurs NP #2Minnesota512.219.31.2VoyageursHEGL1Hercules-GladesMissouri311.426.72.6Hercules-GladeMING1MingoMissouri112.529.52.8MingoWIMO1Wichita MountainsOklahoma37.623.82.7Wichita MountainsBIBE1Big Bend NPTexas47.217.31.7Big BendGUMO1Guadalupe Mountains NPTexas56.817.21.7Guadalupe Mountains; Carlsbad CavernsCENRAPMANE-VU & Midwest RPOSiteNameStateCompleteYearsWorstHazeNatural II(dv)WorstHazeBaseline(dv)10-yearGlideSlope (dv)Class I Area(s)ACAD1Acadia NPMaine512.522.91.7AcadiaMOOS1Moosehorn NWRMaine512.121.71.6Moosehorn; Roosevelt CampobelloGRGU1Great Gulf WildernessNewHampshire412.122.81.8Great Gulf; Presidential Range-DryRiverBRIG1Brigantine NWRNew Jersey512.329.02.8BrigantineLYBR1Lye Brook WildernessVermont511.924.42.1Lye BrookISLE1Isle Royale NPMichigan512.520.71.4Isle RoyaleSENE1SeneyMichigan512.824.21.9SeneySiteNameStateComplete YearsWorstHazeNatural II(dv)WorstHazeBaseline(dv)10-yearGlide Slope(dv)Class I Area(s)SIPS1Sipsy WildernessAlabama411.129.03.0SipseyCHAS1Chassahowitzka NWRFlorida311.326.12.5ChassahowitzkaEVER1Everglades NPFlorida412.322.31.7EvergladesSAMA1St. MarksFlorida211.626.02.4Saint MarksCOHU1CohuttaGeorgia211.230.33.2CohuttaOKEF1Okefenokee NWRGeorgia511.527.12.6Okefenokee; Wolf IslandMACA1Mammoth Cave NPKentucky511.231.43.4Mammoth CaveLIGO1Linville GorgeNorthCarolina411.328.82.9Linville GorgeSHRO1Shining Rock WildernessNorthCarolina211.627.92.7Shining RockSWAN1SwanquarterNorthCarolina212.025.52.2SwanquarterROMA1Cape Romain NWRSouthCarolina512.226.52.4Cape RomainGRSM1Great Smoky Mountains NPTennessee511.330.33.2Great Smoky Mountains; JoyceKilmer-SlickrockJARI1James River Face WildernessVirginia411.229.13.0James River FaceSHEN1Shenandoah NPVirginia511.429.33.0ShenandoahDOSO1Dolly Sods WildernessWest Virginia510.429.03.1Dolly Sods; Otter CreekVIIS1Virgin Islands NPVirgin Islands410.817.01.0Virgin IslandsVISTAS + VISiteNameStateCompleteYearsWorstHazeNatural II(dv)WorstHazeBaseline(dv)10-yearGlideSlope (dv)Class I Area(s)DENA1Denali NPAlaska57.49.90.4DenaliSIME1SimeonofAlaska315.718.60.5SimeonofTUXE1TuxedniAlaska311.514.10.4TuxedniBALD1Mount BaldyArizona26.611.50.8Mount BaldyCHIR1Chiricahua NMArizona57.313.41.0Chiricahua NM; Chiricahua W;GaliuroGRCA2Hance Camp at Grand Canyon NPArizona47.211.70.7Grand CanyonIKBA1Ike's BackboneArizona46.713.31.1Mazatzal; Pine MountainPEFO1Petrified Forest NPArizona56.613.21.1Petrified ForestSAGU1Saguaro NMArizona36.514.81.4SaguaroSIAN1Sierra AnchaArizona46.713.71.2Sierra AnchaSYCA1Sycamore CanyonArizona46.815.31.4Sycamore CanyonTONT1Tonto NMArizona36.713.91.2SuperstitionWRAPSiteNameStateCompleteYearsWorstHazeNatural II(dv)WorstHazeBaseline(dv)10-yearGlideSlope (dv)Class I Area(s)AGTI1Agua TibiaCalifornia47.723.52.6Agua TibiaBLIS1Bliss SP (TRPA)California46.212.61.1Desolation; MokelumneDOME1Dome Lands WildernessCalifornia47.519.42.0Dome LandHOOV1HooverCalifornia38.012.90.8HooverJOSH1Joshua Tree NPCalifornia47.319.62.1Joshua TreeKAIS1KaiserCalifornia27.314.81.2Ansel Adams; Kaiser; John MuirLABE1Lava Beds NMCalifornia47.915.11.2Lava Beds; South WarnerLAVO1Lassen Volcanic NPCalifornia57.414.11.1Lassen Volcanic; Caribou;Thousand Lakes; Caribou;Thousand LakesPINN1Pinnacles NMCalifornia48.118.51.7Pinnacles; VentanaPORE1Point Reyes National SeashoreCalifornia315.922.81.2Point ReyesRAFA1San RafaelCalifornia27.818.91.8San RafaelREDW1Redwood NPCalifornia514.018.50.7RedwoodSAGA1San GabrielCalifornia37.119.92.1San Gabriel; CucamongaSAGO1San Gorgonio WildernessCalifornia47.422.22.5San Gorgonio; San JacintoSEQU1Sequoia NPCalifornia37.624.62.8Sequoia; Kings CanyonTRIN1TrinityCalifornia38.316.31.3Marble Mountain; Yolla Bolly-MiddleEelYOSE1Yosemite NPCalifornia57.717.61.7Yosemite; EmigrantWRAPSiteNameStateCompleteYearsWorstHazeNatural II(dv)WorstHazeBaseline(dv)10-yearGlideSlope (dv)Class I Area(s)GRSA1Great Sand Dunes NMColorado56.712.81.0Great Sand DunesMEVE1Mesa Verde NPColorado56.913.01.0Mesa VerdeMOZI1Mount Zirkel WildernessColorado46.610.50.7Mount Zirkel; RawahROMO1Rocky Mountain NPColorado57.313.81.1Rocky MountainWEMI1Weminuche WildernessColorado46.310.30.7La Garita; Black Canyon of the Gunnison;WeminucheWHRI1White River NFColorado46.79.60.5Flat Tops; Maroon Bells-Snowmass; WestElk; Eagles NestHALE1Haleakala NPHawaii47.513.31.0HaleakalaHAVO1Hawaii Volcanoes NPHawaii47.218.91.9Hawaii VolcanoesCRMO1Craters of the Moon NMIdaho47.614.01.1Craters of the MoonSAWT1Sawtooth NFIdaho46.513.81.2SawtoothCABI1Cabinet MountainsMontana47.614.11.1Cabinet MountainsGAMO1Gates of the MountainsMontana46.511.30.8Gates of the MountainsGLAC1Glacier NPMontana39.120.51.9GlacierMELA1Medicine LakeMontana58.017.71.6Medicine LakeMONT1MontureMontana47.814.51.1Bob Marshall; Mission Mountains;ScapegoatSULA1Sula PeakMontana47.513.41.0Selway-Bitterroot; Anaconda-PintlerULBE1UL BendMontana48.215.11.1UL BendWRAPSiteNameStateCompleteYearsWorstHazeNatural II(dv)WorstHazeBaseline(dv)10-yearGlideSlope (dv)Class I Area(s)JARB1Jarbidge WildernessNevada48.012.10.7JarbidgeBAND1Bandelier NMNewMexico56.312.21.0BandelierBOAP1Bosque del ApacheNewMexico36.813.81.2Bosque del ApacheGICL1Gila WildernessNewMexico46.813.11.1GilaSACR1Salt CreekNewMexico46.918.01.9Salt CreekSAPE1San Pedro ParksNewMexico46.210.20.7San Pedro ParksWHIT1White MountainNewMexico36.913.71.1White MountainWHPE1Wheeler PeakNewMexico36.610.40.6Wheeler Peak; PecosLOST1LostwoodNorthDakota58.119.61.9LostwoodTHRO1Theodore RooseveltNorthDakota47.917.71.6Theodore RooseveltCRLA1Crater Lake NPOregon38.013.71.0Gearhart Mountain; Crater Lake; DiamondPeak; Mountain LakesHECA1Hells CanyonOregon38.418.61.7Hells CanyonKALM1KalmiopsisOregon49.515.51.0KalmiopsisMOHO1Mount HoodOregon48.514.91.1Mount HoodSTAR1StarkeyOregon49.018.61.6Eagle Cap; Strawberry MountainTHSI1Three Sisters WildernessOregon58.915.31.1Three Sisters; Mount Jefferson; MountWashingtonWRAPSiteNameStateCompleteYearsWorst HazeNatural II(dv)Worst HazeBaseline(dv)10-yearGlideSlope (dv)Class I Area(s)BADL1Badlands NPSouthDakota58.117.11.5BadlandsWICA1Wind CaveSouthDakota57.815.81.3Wind CaveBRCA1Bryce Canyon NPUtah57.011.60.8Bryce CanyonCANY1Canyonlands NPUtah56.511.20.8Canyonlands; ArchesCAPI1Capitol Reef NPUtah25.710.00.7Capitol ReefZION1ZionUtah37.113.21.0ZionMORA1Mount Rainier NPWashington48.618.21.6Mount RainierNOCA1North CascadesWashington28.114.01.0North Cascades; Glacier PeakOLYM1OlympicWashington38.516.71.4OlympicPASA1PasaytenWashington48.415.21.1PasaytenSNPA1Snoqualmie PassWashington48.517.81.6Alpine LakesWHPA1White PassWashington48.512.80.7Mount Adams; Goat RocksBRID1Bridger WildernessWyoming56.711.10.7Bridger; FitzpatrickNOAB1North AbsarokaWyoming36.911.50.8North Absaroka; WashakieYELL2Yellowstone NP 2Wyoming56.611.80.9Yellowstone; Red Rock Lakes; GrandTeton; TetonWRAP