# 18 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 

# Crops
Near-term weakness in the global economy dimini shes demand growth for crops over the next several years. However, steady ec onomic growth assumed later in the projections provides a more favorable demand setting. Although corn-based et hanol production in the United States is projected to slow, the large expansion in recent y ears keeps this use of corn high. In combination, these factors support longer run increases in glob al consumption and trade, with prices, although lower than in early 2008, remaini ng at historically high levels. Projections for field crops refl ect provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (2008 Farm Act), which are assumed to continue through the projection period. An important change in the 2008 Farm Act was the reducti on in the maximum acreage enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Rather than the previous cap on enrollment of 39.2 million acres, the new farm legislation sets the maxi mum at 32 million acres, beginning on October 1, 2009. With CRP enrollment at 34.8 million acre s on September 30, 2008, this policy change provides some additional cropland for potential use in pr oduction rather than tightening cropland availability over the projection period. Sustained high prices prompted by strong demand combined with reduced CRP enrollment keep U.S. cropland use high in the projections. Alth ough declining somewhat from the high plantings in 2008 of over 252 million acres, projected plantings for the 8 major field crops remain near 250 million acres over the next 10 years.

225 250 275 300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. planted area: Eight major crops 1/

Million acres

1/ The eight major crops are corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, upland cotton, and soybeans.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 19 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. planted area: Corn, wheat, and soybeans

Million acres

Corn

Wheat Soybeans



# Plantings of different crops are in fluenced by expected net returns. Net returns are determined by market prices, yields, and production costs, with returns augmented by marketing loan benefits when prices are low. Producer planting decisions are also affected by revenue protection available through the Federal Crop Insurance program and the new Average Crop Re venue Election (ACRE) program, which starts in 2009 under the 2008 Farm Act.

 A gradual shift to corn away from other crops reflects the high levels of domestic cornbased ethanol production and gains in exports that keep corn dema nd and producer returns strong. Following a decline in 2008, corn ac reage increases to 90 million acres by 2011 and remains at or above that level ove r the remainder of the projection period.

 Soybean plantings decline over the next severa l years, but remain above 70 million acres as net returns remain favorable.

 Wheat plantings decline from the high level of 2008 as producer retu rns are lower. Wheat acreage falls below 60 million ac res in the longer run as weak demand growth reduces the crop’s competitiveness for land relative to other crops.

# 20 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Corn-based Ethanol Expansion Projected To Slow Ethanol production in the United St ates has increased rapidly over th e past several years, from less than 3 billion gallons in 2003 to over 9 billion ga llons in 2008. Most ethanol production in the United States currently uses corn as the feedstock, with close to a third of total corn use expected to go to ethanol production in the 2008/09 corn crop year. These projections assume the tax credit available to blenders of ethanol and the 54-cent-per-gallon tariff on imported fuel ethanol remain in effect. While expansion in the et hanol industry continues, smaller gains for corn-based ethanol are projecte d, largely reflecting moderate growth in overall gasoline consumption in the United States. By the end of the projecti on period, ethanol production accounts for about 35 percent of corn use and corn-based ethanol production exceeds 9 percent of annual gasoline consumption. The continued pres ence of ethanol demand in the corn sector, in combination with other long-term factors, holds prices for corn and many other crops well above their historical levels, although s eason-average annual prices are not projected to reach the record highs seen in the first half of 2008.

0 1 2 3 4 5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. corn: Use for ethanol production

Billion bushels

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Ethanol FSI less ethanol 1/ Exports Feed & residual 

### U.S. corn use

Billion bushels

1/ Food, seed, and industrial use less ethanol.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 21 0 2 4 6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. corn: Feed use, ethanol, and exports

Billion bushels

Feed use

Exports Ethanol



# Domestic corn use grows throughout the projection period, largely reflecting increases in corn used in the production of ethanol. Global econo mic growth underlies increases in U.S. corn exports.

 Continued increases are projected for corn us ed to produce ethanol over the next 10 years, although the pace slows from the rapid gains of th e past several years. Projected gains after 2009/10 are largely in line with moderate expect ed increases in overall gasoline usage in the United States.

 Feed and residual use of corn bottoms out in the initial years due to reduced meat production and increased feeding of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol production. Feed use rises through the rest of the projections as meat production picks up and growth in availability of distillers grai ns slows with the reduced pace of corn-based ethanol expansion.

 Gains in food and industrial uses of corn (oth er than for ethanol production) are projected to be smaller than increases in population. Consumer dietary concer ns and other changes in tastes and preferences limit increases in the combined use of corn for high fructose corn syrup, glucose, and dextrose to about half the rate of population gain. Starch use initially declines due to the slowing U.S. econo my, but grows moderately thereafter.

 U.S. corn exports rise in response to str onger global demand for feed grains to support growth in meat production, with the U.S. share of global corn trade holding in the 55-60 percent range.

# 22 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. wheat: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports



# Overall demand in the U.S. wheat sector gr ows slowly through the projection period.

 Domestic demand for wheat refl ects a relatively mature market. Food use of wheat is projected to show moderate gains, gene rally in line with population increases.

 Feed use of wheat, a lower value use of th e crop, declines through the projection period from the relatively high levels of 2008/09.

 U.S. wheat exports increase slowly over the projection period as competition from the European Union (EU), Canada, Argentina, Australia, and the Black Sea region limits further gains. In particular, wheat prices ar e projected at levels high enough that the EU can export wheat without subsid ies, thus permitting higher EU exports. Although the U.S. market share initially increases from 22 percent in 2008/09, it falls over the latter part of the projections to about 21 percent by 2018/19.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 23 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. soybeans: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports



# Domestic use of soybeans continues to rise slow ly. U.S. soybean exports remain high but with little growth as more soybeans are processed domestically.

 Declines in the livestock sector initially reduce demand for soybean meal for livestock feed, thereby lowering domestic soybean crus h in the near term. However, once meat production gains resume, soybean crush will follow. Then, longrun growth in domestic soybean crush is mostly driven by incr easing domestic soybean meal demand.

 U.S. soybean exports hold fairly flat near 1.2 billion bushels. While th is is a historically high level of exports, competition from South America limits U.S. exports from further growth. Consequently, the U.S. market shar e of global soybean trade declines from 40 percent in 2009/10 to about 30 percent at the end of the projections.

 Strengthening competition from Argentina and Brazil, combined with increasing use for the growing U.S. livestock sector, lead to onl y small gains in U.S. soybean meal exports from 2009/10-2018/19, reducing the U.S. export shar e in global soybean meal trade. U.S soybean oil exports similarly face incr easing competition from South America.

# 24 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. farm-level prices: Corn, wheat, and soybeans
Dollars per bushel

Corn Wheat Soybeans



# Projected farm-level prices for corn, wheat, and s oybeans fall from the very high levels seen in 2007/08 and 2008/09 that reflected a numb er of short-term factors. However, prices are projected to remain historically high due to the influen ce of continuing longer term factors, including structural shifts that dr ive demand for these crops.

 Corn prices initially fall from their high 2008/09 level as increases in ethanol production slow and corn stocks build. In the longer run, corn prices remain higher than their pre2006 levels due to continued demand for corn to produce ethanol as well as growth in feed use and exports.

 Land-use competition from corn keeps soybean acreage from rising and holds soybean prices high throughout the projections.

 As for other crops, wheat prices decline from current levels in the early years of the projections, although they remain hi storically high. Price increases in the latter years of the projections are moderate as yield gains mos tly offset demand increases (despite falling acreage), keeping stocks relatively stable.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 25 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. rice: Domestic use and exports
Million hundredweight

Domestic use

Exports



# Continued expansion in domestic food use of rice is projected over the next decade. U.S. rice exports increase as well, but somewhat slower than overall growth in global rice trade.

 Domestic use of rice is projected to grow so mewhat faster than population growth. Imports of aromatic varieties of rice from Asia account for a growing share of domestic use in the projections.

 U.S. rice exports are projected to increas e as the U.S. price difference over Asian competitors falls, increasing U.S. competitiveness in global markets. Exports of rough rice to Latin America are expected to continue increasing, and account for most of the U.S. export expansion.

 Stocks of rice gradually increase in the proj ection period, keeping the stocks-to-use ratio at 11-12 percent.

 Global rice prices fall over the next several year s from recent highs. Over the latter part of the projections, global prices increase a bout 2.5 percent per year, approaching $11 per hundredweight (rough basis) at the end of the projection pe riod. These price increases largely reflect tightening global stocks due to slow yield growth and little ability to expand area in most producing countries. This effect is partially offset by declining global per capita disappearance, largely due to dietary sh ifts away from staple foods in Asia as incomes rise.

 U.S. rice prices follow a similar pattern to gl obal prices, initially declining from the high levels of 2008/09 before rising in the latter ye ars of the projections. By the end of the projection period, U.S. rice prices in crease to $12 per hundredweight.

# 26 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. upland cotton: Domestic mill use and exports

Million bales

Domestic mill use Exports



# U.S. mill use of upland cotton continues to decline in the projections while upland cotton exports rise after 2010/11.

 The decline in mill use of cotton is projected to continue over the next decade. At the end of the projection period, domestic mill use is projected to repr esent less than one-fourth of total use. Underlying this projection, appare l imports by the United States increase over the next 10 years, reducing domestic a pparel production and lowering the apparel industry’s demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States.

 U.S. upland cotton exports are projected to decline through 2010/11, reflecting a reduction in acreage and production and diminished avai lability of stocks. Exports then grow moderately, accounting for over three-fourth s of U.S. cotton use by the end of the projection period. As a consequence, while the U.S. cotton trade share initially falls below 30 percent, it then rebounds to nearly 34 percent by the end of the projection period.

 Cotton stocks decline in the first several years of the projections as so me acreage shifts to other crops. As projected cotton prices strengthen after 2009/10, improved net returns provide economic incentives fo r cotton acreage to rise, and st ocks increase through the end of the projections.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 27 Two primary determinants of the U.S. sugar pr ojections are implementation of the sugar and energy provisions of the 2008 Farm Act and increased imports of sugar from Mexico.

 The 2008 Farm Act increased the raw sugar loan rate from 18 cents per pound in the 2008 crop year to 18.25 cents per pound in the 2009 crop y ear, to 18.50 cents per pound in the 2010 crop year, and to 18.75 cents per pound in the 2011 and 2012 crop years. The refined beet sugar loan rate is specified to equal 128.5 percent of the raw cane sugar loan rate. Marketing allotments for sugar are set annually at a leve l not less than 85 per cent of estimated sugar deliveries for domestic human consumption.

 Higher support prices help to keep sugar competitive with a lternative crops. Beet sugar production averages 5.089 million short tons, raw value (STRV) per year over the projections, while cane sugar production averages 3.822 million ST RV. Both of these projections are about 9 percent higher than production in the 6-year period covered by the 2002 Farm Act. Higher support prices also help to pres erve processing capacity. Beet processing capacity is projected to increase 3.3 percent in the Red River Valley of the Northern Plains and 2.2 percent in the Pacific Northwest, while capacity in the Gr eat Lakes and Great Plains regions are down marginally. Cane processing is about the same at the end of the projec tion period as it was at the beginning. (The proposed sale of sugarcan e land by the U.S. Sugar Corporation in Florida was not included in these projections.)

 The 2008 Farm Act also introduced the Feedstoc k Flexibility Program, which requires the diversion of sugar from food use to ethanol produ cers, if needed, to k eep sugar prices above levels at which sugar processors might otherw ise forfeit sugar under loan to the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Consequently, there ar e no sugar loan forfeitures projected because of USDA purchases of sugar under this program. These purchases are projected to begin in 2013/14, with the largest projected purchases in 2014/15. Purchase levels are then somewhat lower over the remaining years of the projec tions. From 2013/14 through the end of the projection period, U.S. sugar pr ices are at the minimum leve l to avoid forfeiture—about 21.30 cents per pound for raw sugar (No. 16 NY contract). 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 

### U.S. sugar stocks

Million short tons

Crop year Total stocks

CCC surplus disbursements

# 28 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 1 2 3 4

2000 2005 2010 2015 Other imports TRQ impor ts 

### U.S. sugar imports

Million short tons

Crop year


# Increased U.S. imports of sugar from Mexico are a result of increased us e of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in Mexico and duty-free sweetene r trade (sugar and HFCS) between the United States and Mexico. After a phas e-in period, HFCS use by Mexico’s beverage industry is assumed to be 75 percent of total sw eetener demand by that industry.

 Although there are fluctuations in sugar exports from Mexico to the United States through 2014/15, on average these exports increase by 159 ,000 STRV per year. After this period, Mexican sugar consumption increases annually by about 50,000 tons (resulting in per capita consumption rising only slightly ) and Mexican sugar e xports to the United States drop by a corresponding amount.

 Raw and refined sugar tariff-rate quotas (TRQ s) are established at the beginning of the marketing year at the minimum levels required to comply with international trade agreements approved by the U.S. Congress. There are no pr ojections of any midyear increases in TRQs throughout the projection period.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 29 Farm sales of horticultural crops are projected to grow by 2.1 percent annually over the next decade, reaching $71.6 billion in calendar year 2018, up from $58 billion in 2008. U.S. horticultural trade continues to become increasingly important, both in terms of the export share of production and the import share of consumption.

 Within horticultural products, vegetables and melons continue to rank first in farm sales value over both fruits and nuts and greenhouse and nursery crops. Annual growth over the next 10 years is expected to be fastest for fruits and tree nuts, at 2.6 percent, followed by vegetables at 2.0 percent, and nursery crops at 1.6 percent.

 The volume of farm production of horticultural crops is projected to rise annually at 0.4 percent. Total vegetable production volume is projected to expand at 0.6 percent annually and fruit production is forecast to decline on average by 0.1 percent in the next decade. The gradual increases in U.S. vegetable production volume hold gains in producer prices for vegetables at an annual 1.3 percent rate through the next decade. Combined with average price increases of 2.7 percent for fruits and nuts, farm produce prices are estimated to increase by 1.9 percent annually in the projection period.

 The average growth of U.S. horticultural import value is forecast at 3.7 percent from fiscal year (FY) 2009 to 2018. The value of exports is forecast to gr ow at 3 percent, with both fruits and vegetables averaging 2.8 percent in the next 10 years. Import growth and export growth of fresh-market vegetables and fruits exceed that of their processed products. The U.S. trade deficit in horticulture crops and products increases from $14 billion in FY 2008 to more than $21 billion in FY 2018. Of the total $28 billion U.S. exports of horticultural products in FY 2018, fruits and nuts contribute $12.8 billion and vegetables represent $6.5 billion. Total imports of $50.5 billion in FY 2018 include $16 billion worth of fruits and nuts, and $12 billion of vegetables and vegetable products.



#  Imports will increasingly supplement the domestic s upply of horticulture crops and products. The share of imports in U.S. consumption of horticulture crops and products (based on dollar value) is projected to climb from 48 percent in 2008 to 54 percent by FY 2018. Horticultural exports are projected to increase their share of U.S. production value from 36 percent in FY 2008 to 39 percent in FY 2018. The import and export shares of fru its and nuts are about twice as large as the corresponding import and export shares of vegetables. 0 10 20 30 40 50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 

### Value of horticultural trade

Billion dollars

Imports

Exports

Fiscal year

# 30 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 5. Conservation Reserve Program acreage assumptions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Million acres

Corn 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 Sorghum 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Barley 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Oats 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Wheat 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 Upland cotton 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Soybeans 5.8 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5

Subtotal 24.8 23.5 23.0 21.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.6 21.6 Other 12.0 11.3 11.0 10.3 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4

Total 36.8 34.8 34.0 31.9 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.5 31.4 31.9 32.0 32.0 Crop allocation Table 4. Summary policy variables for major field crops, 2008-2018

Target price 2008-2009 2010-2018 2008-2009 2010-2018 2008-2009 2010-2018
Dollars 1
Corn 0.28 1.95 1.95 2.63 2.63 2.35 2.35 Sorghum 0.35 1.95 1.95 2.57 2.63 2.22 2.28 Barley 0.24 1.85 1.95 2.24 2.63 2.00 2.39 Oats 0.024 1.33 1.39 1.44 1.79 1.416 1.766 Wheat 0.52 2.75 2.94 3.92 4.17 3.40 3.65 Rice 2.35 6.50 6.50 10.50 10.50 8.15 8.15 Upland cotton 0.0667 0.52 0.52 0.7125 0.7125 0.6458 0.6458 Soybeans 0.44 5.00 5.00 5.80 6.00 5.36 5.56 1/ Units are dollars per bushel except for upland cotton (per pound) and rice (per hundredweight). Direct payment rate Marketing assistance loan rate Counter-cyclical trigger

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 31 Table 6. Planted and harvested acreage for major field crops, long-term projections 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Million acres Planted acreage, eight major crops

Corn 93.6 85.9 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.5 90.5 90.5 Sorghum 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 Barley 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Oats 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Wheat 60.4 63.0 60.5 60.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 60.0 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.5 Rice 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Upland cotton 10.5 9.2 8.4 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 Soybeans 64.7 75.9 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.5 71.5 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 Total 247.5 252.6 249.2 249.3 250.5 249.6 249.3 248.8 248.4 249.0 249.1 249.1
Harvested acreage, eight major crops

Corn 86.5 78.2 80.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 83.3 83.3 83.3 Sorghum 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 Barley 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Oats 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Wheat 51.0 55.7 51.4 51.4 51.9 51.4 51.0 51.0 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.6 Rice 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 Upland cotton 10.2 7.6 7.6 7.9 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 Soybeans 64.1 74.4 73.0 72.1 71.1 70.6 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 Total 226.3 231.4 227.6 227.8 229.0 228.0 227.7 227.2 226.9 227.6 227.7 227.7

# 32 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 7. Selected supply, use, and price variables for major field crops, long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Yields 1 Corn 151.1 153.8 157.0 159.0 161.0 163.0 165.0 167.0 169.0 171.0 173.0 175.0 Sorghum 74.2 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 Barley 60.4 63.6 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.4 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.8 70.4 71.0 Oats 60.9 63.5 63.5 63.9 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8 Wheat 40.5 44.9 43.0 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.7 Rice 7,185 6,959 7,138 7,209 7,281 7,353 7,414 7,481 7,548 7,603 7,664 7,725 Upland cotton 864 827 850 865 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950 Soybeans 41.7 39.3 42.6 43.0 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.8 45.2 45.6 46.1 46.5

Production 2 Corn 13,074 12,020 12,685 13,005 13,330 13,495 13,660 13,830 13,995 14,245 14,410 14,580 Sorghum 505 465 435 420 420 415 415 410 410 410 410 405 Barley 212 239 230 230 235 235 240 240 240 245 245 250 Oats 92 89 95 95 95 95 100 100 100 100 100 100 Wheat 2,067 2,500 2,210 2,225 2,265 2,255 2,255 2,270 2,265 2,280 2,295 2,310 Rice 197.5 203.5 213.0 215.1 217.3 219.4 224.9 227.0 229.0 234.4 236.3 238.2 Upland cotton 18,355 13,069 13,500 14,200 15,800 16,100 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 18,000 18,400 Soybeans 2,676 2,921 3,110 3,100 3,095 3,100 3,130 3,140 3,170 3,195 3,230 3 ,2 60
Exports 2 Corn 2,436 1,900 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,075 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,175 2,200 2,225 Sorghum 278 140 140 140 145 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 Barley 41 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Oats 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Wheat 1,264 1,000 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 Rice 107.9 107.0 109.0 111.5 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 124.5 127.0 129.0 Upland cotton 12,820 12,500 10,800 10,500 11,000 11,700 12,200 12,700 13,200 13,600 14,000 14,400 Soybeans 1,161 1,020 1,175 1,200 1,200 1,180 1,180 1,175 1,175 1,180 1,190 1 ,2 00 Soybean meal 9,200 8,600 8,400 8,500 8,700 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750
Ending stocks 2 Corn 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 1,589 Sorghum 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 Barley 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 83 Oats 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 59 Wheat 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 620 Rice 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 30.2 Upland cotton 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 5,437 Soybeans 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 2 38

Prices 3 Corn 4.20 4.40 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 Sorghum 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 Barley 4.02 5.00 4.30 4.15 4.00 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95 Oats 2.63 2.90 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 Wheat 6.48 6.85 5.75 5.60 5.50 5.35 5.30 5.40 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 Rice 12.80 15.00 12.50 11.45 10.90 10.60 10.80 11.03 11.27 11.52 11.78 12.04 Upland cotton 0.593 0.500 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.605 0.610 0.615 0.620 0.625 0.630 0.635 Soybeans 10.10 9.85 8.85 8.75 8.75 8.70 8.60 8.70 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.80 Soybean oil 0.520 0.395 0.350 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 Soybean meal 335.9 285.0 260.0 255.0 252.5 251.0 246.0 249.0 250.5 250.5 250.5 252.0 1/ Bushels per acre except for upland cotton and rice (pounds per acre). 2/ Million bushels except for upland cotton (thousand bales), rice (million hundredweight), and soybean meal (thousand tons). 3/ Dollars per bushel except for upland cotton and soybean oil (per pound), rice (per hundredweight), and soybean meal (per to n).

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 33 Table 8. U.S. corn long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 93.6 85.9 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.5 90.5 90.5 Harvested acres 86.5 78.2 80.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 83.3 83.3 83.3
Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 151.1 153.8 157.0 159.0 161.0 163.0 165.0 167.0 169.0 171.0 173.0 175.0
Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks 1,304 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 Production 13,074 12,020 12,685 13,005 13,330 13,495 13,660 13,830 13,995 14,245 14,410 14,580 Imports 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Supply 14,398 13,659 13,824 14,024 14,374 14,684 14,949 15,174 15,354 15,599 15,849 16,109

Feed & residual 5,974 5,300 5,300 5,350 5,400 5,450 5,525 5,600 5,675 5,725 5,775 5,850 Food, seed, & industrial 4,364 5,335 5,520 5,620 5,750 5,885 5,995 6,105 6,190 6,275 6,360 6,445 Ethanol for fuel 3,026 4,000 4,200 4,300 4,425 4,550 4,650 4,750 4,825 4,900 4,975 5,050 Domestic use 10,338 10,635 10,820 10,970 11,150 11,335 11,520 11,705 11,865 12,000 12,135 12,295 Exports 2,436 1,900 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,075 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,175 2,200 2,225 Total use 12,774 12,535 12,820 12,995 13,200 13,410 13,620 13,830 14,015 14,175 14,335 14,520
Ending stocks 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 1,589 Stocks/use ratio, percent 12.7 9.0 7.8 7.9 8.9 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.0 10.6 10.9
Prices (dollars per bushel):
Farm price 4.20 4.40 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 226 301 308 305 309 312 316 319 322 326 330 334 Per bushel 1.50 1.95 1.96 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 408 376 320 315 303 291 287 299 311 315 319 323 Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn.

# 34 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 9. U.S. sorghum long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 Harvested acres 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3
Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 74.2 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0
Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks 32 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 Production 505 465 435 420 420 415 415 410 410 410 410 405 Imports 000000000000 Supply 537 518 503 488 488 483 478 473 473 473 473 468

Feed & residual 172 240 225 210 205 200 185 170 160 150 140 125 Food, seed, & industrial 35 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 Domestic 207 310 295 280 275 270 255 240 230 220 210 195 Exports 278 140 140 140 145 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 Total use 484 450 435 420 420 420 415 410 410 410 410 405
Ending stocks 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 Stocks/use ratio, percent 11.0 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.2 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.6
Prices (dollars per bushel):
Farm price 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 132 166 159 160 163 166 168 170 172 174 177 179 Per bushel 1.77 2.64 2.48 2.50 2.55 2.59 2.62 2.65 2.69 2.73 2.76 2.80
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 171 73 65 61 54 46 40 41 42 40 38 35 Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 35 Table 10. U.S. barley long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Harvested acres 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 60.4 63.6 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.4 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.8 70.4 71.0
Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks 69 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 Production 212 239 230 230 235 235 240 240 240 245 245 250 Imports 32 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Supply 312 333 323 323 327 331 335 339 342 345 348 356

Feed & residual 34 80 70 70 70 75 75 75 80 80 80 85 Food, seed, & industrial 168 160 160 161 161 161 161 162 162 162 162 163 Domestic 203 240 230 231 231 236 236 237 242 242 242 248 Exports 41 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Total use 244 265 255 256 256 261 261 262 267 267 267 273
Ending stocks 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 83 Stocks/use ratio, percent 27.9 25.7 26.7 26.2 27.7 26.8 28.4 29.4 28.1 29.2 30.3 30.4
Prices (dollars per bushel):
Farm price 4.02 5.00 4.30 4.15 4.00 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95 Loan rate 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 111 141 141 141 143 145 147 149 150 152 154 156 Per bushel 1.84 2.22 2.15 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 2.20
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 132 177 141 134 124 118 115 119 123 123 124 124 Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for barley.

# 36 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 11. U.S. oats long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

Planted acres 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Harvested acres 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 60.9 63.5 63.5 63.9 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8
Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks 51 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 Production 92 89 95 95 95 95 100 100 100 100 100 100 Imports 123 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Supply 265 260 257 259 260 261 262 262 262 262 261 260

Feed & residual 121 120 115 115 115 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 Food, seed, & industrial 75 75 75 76 76 76 77 77 77 78 78 78 Domestic 196 195 190 191 191 196 197 197 197 198 198 198 Exports 333333333333 Total use 199 198 193 194 194 199 200 200 200 201 201 201
Ending stocks 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 59 Stocks/use ratio, percent 33.7 31.3 33.2 33.5 34.0 31.2 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.3 29.9 29.4
Prices (dollars per bushel):

Farm price 2.63 2.90 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 Loan rate 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 82 106 107 107 109 110 112 113 114 116 118 119 Per bushel 1.34 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.69 1.70 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.76 1.77 1.79
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 78 78 52 50 45 42 38 40 40 39 39 38 Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for oats.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 37 Table 12. U.S. wheat long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 60.4 63.0 60.5 60.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 60.0 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.5 Harvested acres 51.0 55.7 51.4 51.4 51.9 51.4 51.0 51.0 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.6
Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 40.5 44.9 43.0 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.7
Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks 456 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 Production 2,067 2,500 2,210 2,225 2,265 2,255 2,255 2,270 2,265 2,280 2,295 2,310 Imports 113 100 100 105 105 110 110 115 115 120 120 125 Supply 2,635 2,905 2,913 2,946 2,990 3,005 3,012 3,030 3,020 3,021 3,028 3,046
Food 948 960 965 974 983 992 1,001 1,010 1,019 1,028 1,037 1,046 Seed 88 82 82 82 82 81 81 80 80 80 80 80 Feed & residual 30 260 250 245 235 235 235 225 225 225 225 225 Domestic 1,066 1,302 1,297 1,301 1,300 1,308 1,317 1,315 1,324 1,333 1,342 1,351 Exports 1,264 1,000 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 Total use 2,330 2,302 2,297 2,326 2,350 2,358 2,367 2,390 2,399 2,408 2,417 2,426
Ending stocks 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 620 Stocks/use ratio, percent 13.1 26.2 26.8 26.7 27.2 27.4 27.2 26.8 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.6
Prices (dollars per bushel):
Farm price 6.48 6.85 5.75 5.60 5.50 5.35 5.30 5.40 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 Loan rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 97 133 141 125 127 129 130 132 134 135 137 139 Per bushel 2.39 2.97 3.28 2.89 2.91 2.93 2.95 2.96 2.98 3.00 3.02 3.04
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 166 185 111 118 113 106 104 108 111 110 110 110 Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for wheat.

# 38 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 13. U.S. soybean and products long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Soybeans

Area (million acres): Planted 64.7 75.9 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.5 71.5 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 Harvested 64.1 74.4 73.0 72.1 71.1 70.6 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 Yield/harvested acre (bushels) 41.7 39.3 42.6 43.0 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.8 45.2 45.6 46.1 46.5 Supply (million bushels) Beginning stocks, September 1 574 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 Production 2,676 2,921 3,110 3,100 3,095 3,100 3,130 3,140 3,170 3,195 3,230 3,260 Imports 10 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Total supply 3,260 3,133 3,320 3,362 3,361 3,351 3,370 3,380 3,404 3,432 3,470 3,502 Disposition (million bushels) Crush 1,801 1,745 1,720 1,735 1,750 1,770 1,790 1,810 1,830 1,850 1,875 1,895 Seed and residual 92 162 168 166 165 166 166 166 167 167 168 169 Exports 1,161 1,020 1,175 1,200 1,200 1,180 1,180 1,175 1,175 1,180 1,190 1,200 Total disposition 3,055 2,928 3,063 3,101 3,115 3,116 3,136 3,151 3,172 3,197 3,233 3,264 Carryover stocks, August 31 Total ending stocks 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 238 Stocks/use ratio, percent 6.7 7.0 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.3 Prices (dollars per bushel) Loan rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Soybean price, farm 10.10 9.85 8.85 8.75 8.75 8.70 8.60 8.70 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.80 Variable costs of production (dollars): Per acre 105 130 132 132 134 135 136 138 139 140 141 143 Per bushel 2.51 3.32 3.10 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre): Net returns 316 257 245 244 247 247 245 252 257 259 262 266
Soybean oil (million pounds) Beginning stocks, October 1 3,085 2,471 2,016 1,786 1,801 1,816 1,886 1,916 1,951 1,941 1,916 1,881 Production 20,568 19,895 19,610 19,795 19,985 20,230 20,480 20,725 20,970 21,220 21,525 21,775 Imports 65 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Total supply 23,718 22,416 21,686 21,651 21,866 22,136 22,466 22,751 23,041 23,291 23,581 23,806 Domestic disappearance 18,272 18,100 18,000 18,100 18,350 18,550 18,750 18,950 19,150 19,375 19,600 19,850 For methyl ester 1 2,983 3,100 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 Exports 2,975 2,300 1,900 1,750 1,700 1,700 1,800 1,850 1,950 2,000 2,100 2,100 Total demand 21,247 20,400 19,900 19,850 20,050 20,250 20,550 20,800 21,100 21,375 21,700 21,950 Ending stocks, September 30 2,471 2,016 1,786 1,801 1,816 1,886 1,916 1,951 1,941 1,916 1,881 1,856 Soybean oil price (dollars per lb) 0.520 0.395 0.350 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345
Soybean meal (thousand short tons) Beginning stocks, October 1 346 294 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Production 42,242 41,491 40,935 41,235 41,635 42,085 42,585 43,085 43,585 44,085 44,585 45,085 Imports 140 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 Total supply 42,728 41,950 41,400 41,700 42,100 42,550 43,050 43,550 44,050 44,550 45,050 45,550 Domestic disappearance 33,234 33,050 32,700 32,900 33,100 33,500 34,000 34,500 35,000 35,500 36,000 36,500 Exports 9,200 8,600 8,400 8,500 8,700 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 Total demand 42,434 41,650 41,100 41,400 41,800 42,250 42,750 43,250 43,750 44,250 44,750 45,250 Ending stocks, September 30 294 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Soybean meal price (dollars per ton) 335.94 285.00 260.00 255.00 252.50 251.00 246.00 249.00 250.50 250.50 250.50 252.00
Crushing yields (pounds per bushel) Soybean oil 11.42 11.40 11.40 11.41 11.42 11.43 11.44 11.45 11.46 11.47 11.48 11.49 Soybean meal 46.90 47.56 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 Crush margin (dollars per bushel) 3.72 1.43 1.33 1.26 1.20 1.22 1.20 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.16 Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 1/ Soybean oil used for methyl ester for production of biodiesel, history from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 39 Table 14. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (thousand acres):

Planted 2,761 2,940 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,050 3,050 3,050 3,100 3,100 3,100 Harvested 2,748 2,924 2,984 2,984 2,984 2,984 3,034 3,034 3,034 3,083 3,083 3,083
Yields (pounds per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 7,185 6,959 7,138 7,209 7,281 7,353 7,414 7,481 7,548 7,603 7,664 7,725
Supply and use (million hundredweight):
Beginning stocks 39.3 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 Production 197.5 203.5 213.0 215.1 217.3 219.4 224.9 227.0 229.0 234.4 236.3 238.2 Imports 23.9 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.3 29.3 30.3 31.3 32.4 33.6 34.8 36.0 Total supply 260.7 258.4 264.8 270.3 274.6 277.6 283.0 287.7 291.4 297.6 302.3 305.4

Domestic use and residual 123.3 126.0 127.9 129.8 131.7 133.7 135.7 137.7 139.8 141.9 144.0 146.2 Exports 107.9 107.0 109.0 111.5 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 124.5 127.0 129.0 Total use 231.2 233.0 236.9 241.3 245.7 249.7 253.7 257.7 261.8 266.4 271.0 275.2
Ending stocks 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 30.2 Stocks/use ratio, percent 12.7 10.9 11.8 12.0 11.8 11.2 11.6 11.6 11.3 11.7 11.5 11.0
Milling rate, percent 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5
Prices (dollars per hundredweight):
World price 11.53 13.50 11.00 10.00 9.50 9.25 9.50 9.78 10.02 10.27 10.53 10.79 Average market price 12.80 15.00 12.50 11.45 10.90 10.60 10.80 11.03 11.27 11.52 11.78 12.04 Loan rate 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 414 511 497 499 507 514 520 527 533 540 547 554 Per hundredweight 5.76 7.35 6.96 6.93 6.97 6.99 7.02 7.04 7.06 7.10 7.13 7.17
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 506 532 396 326 286 265 280 299 318 336 356 377 Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for rice.

# 40 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 15. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 10.5 9.2 8.4 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 Harvested acres 10.2 7.6 7.6 7.9 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3
Yields (pounds per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 864 827 850 865 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950
Supply and use (thousand bales):
Beginning stocks 9,338 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 Production 18,355 13,069 13,500 14,200 15,800 16,100 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 18,000 18,400 Imports 6 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Supply 27,699 22,979 19,647 18,732 19,767 20,652 21,287 21,872 22,407 22,792 23,227 23,712

Domestic use 4,573 4,365 4,315 4,265 4,215 4,165 4,115 4,065 4,015 3,965 3,915 3,865 Exports 12,820 12,500 10,800 10,500 11,000 11,700 12,200 12,700 13,200 13,600 14,000 14,400 Total use 17,393 16,865 15,115 14,765 15,215 15,865 16,315 16,765 17,215 17,565 17,915 18,265
Ending stocks 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 5,437 Stocks/use ratio, percent 56.9 36.4 29.9 26.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.8
Prices (dollars per pound):

Farm price 0.593 0.500 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.605 0.610 0.615 0.620 0.625 0.630 0.635 Loan rate 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 421 491 493 498 507 514 522 530 538 546 555 564 Per pound 0.49 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 1 205 150 152 151 170 174 178 183 188 193 198 203 Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for upland cotton. 1/ Net returns include estimates of marketing loan benefits.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 41 Table 16. U.S. sugar long-term projections Item Units 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Sugarbeets Planted area 1,000 acres 1,269 1,080 1,408 1,306 1,261 1,301 1,311 1,310 1,297 1,287 1,296 1,300 Harvested area 1,000 acres 1,247 1,053 1,356 1,264 1,227 1,264 1,273 1,267 1,249 1,239 1,248 1,252 Yield Tons/acre 25.6 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 Production Mil. s. tons 31.9 28.0 35.2 32.5 31.5 32.6 32.9 32.9 32.5 32.4 32.8 33.0
Sugarcane Harvested area 1,000 acres 832 830 843 840 840 832 840 850 839 833 836 838 Yield Tons/acre 35.1 34.7 34.3 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.9 35.0 35.1 Production Mil. s. tons 29.2 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4
Supply: Beginning stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,799 1,690 907 1,646 1,425 1,535 1,703 1,805 1,790 1,751 1,746 1,776 Production 1,000 s. tons 8,150 7,681 9,139 8,794 8,701 8,894 9,032 9,113 9,066 9,076 9,205 9,308 Beet sugar 1,000 s. tons 4,721 4,225 5,405 5,026 4,907 5,103 5,183 5,198 5,171 5,175 5,259 5,323 Cane sugar 1,000 s. tons 3,429 3,456 3,734 3,768 3,794 3,792 3,849 3,916 3,895 3,902 3,946 3,986 Total imports 1,000 s. tons 2,456 2,496 2,839 2,365 2,807 2,753 3,238 3,312 3,237 3,187 3,133 3,085

TRQ imports 1,000 s. tons 1,352 1,511 1,357 1,359 1,361 1,367 1,369 1,372 1,374 1,379 1,382 1,384 Other imports 1,000 s. tons 1,104 985 1,483 1,006 1,446 1,386 1,869 1,940 1,863 1,808 1,751 1,700 Total supply 1,000 s. tons 12,405 11,867 12,886 12,805 12,933 13,183 13,973 14,230 14,094 14,015 14,085 14,169

Use: Exports 1,000 s. tons 203 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Domestic deliveries 1,000 s. tons 10,781 10,710 10,990 11,130 11,148 11,230 11,308 11,376 11,433 11,477 11,519 11,558 Miscellaneous 1,000 s. tons -269 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total use 1,000 s. tons 10,715 10,960 11,240 11,380 11,398 11,480 11,558 11,626 11,683 11,727 11,769 11,808
CCC surplus disbursements 1,000 s. tons 0 0 0 0 0 0 609 815 660 541 540 544 Ending stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,690 907 1,646 1,425 1,535 1,703 1,805 1,790 1,751 1,746 1,776 1,817
Raw sugar price:

New York (No. 16) Cents/lb. 23.34 25.66 23.67 22.67 22.15 21.53 21.32 21.31 21.30 21.30 21.30 21.29 Raw sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 18.00 18.00 18.25 18.50 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 Beet sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 22.90 23.13 23.45 23.77 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 Grower prices:

Sugarbeets Dol./ton 39.70 46.83 41.33 38.91 39.27 38.14 37.36 37.24 37.31 37.38 37.45 37.52 Sugarcane Dol./ton 29.25 31.35 31.77 31.13 30.82 30.48 30.39 30.48 30.60 30.73 30.85 30.96 CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

# 42 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 17. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years Item Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Production area 1

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 1,000 acres 10,928 10,707 10,906 10,917 10,955 10,994 11,035 11,076 11,120 11,165 11,211 11,259

Fruit and tree nuts 1,000 acres 3,908 3,897 3,895 3,894 3,893 3,893 3,893 3,894 3,894 3,896 3,898 3,900 Vegetables and melons 1,000 acres 7,020 6,810 7,011 7,023 7,061 7,101 7,141 7,183 7,225 7,269 7,313 7,359 Supply

Production, farm weight

Fruit and nuts Mil. lbs. 59,047 64,369 64,249 64,142 64,043 63,954 63,875 63,804 63,743 63,691 63,648 63,614

Citrus Mil. lbs. 20,934 25,994 25,604 25,220 24,842 24,469 24,102 23,741 23,384 23,034 22,688 22,348 Noncitrus Mil. lbs. 34,129 34,300 34,471 34,643 34,817 34,991 35,166 35,342 35,518 35,696 35,874 36,054 Tree nuts Mil. lbs. 3,984 4,076 4,174 4,278 4,385 4,495 4,607 4,722 4,840 4,961 5,085 5,212 Vegetables and melons Mil. lbs. 141,158 135,778 136,562 137,858 138,712 139,576 140,451 141,337 142,233 143,140 144,059 144,988

Fresh market 2 Mil. lbs. 60,700 59,950 59,659 60,358 61,066 61,784 62,510 63,247 63,992 64,748 65,513 66,288 Processing 3 Mil. lbs. 35,777 34,774 34,370 34,542 34,473 34,404 34,335 34,267 34,198 34,130 34,062 33,994 Potatoes Mil. lbs. 44,681 41,055 42,532 42,958 43,173 43,388 43,605 43,823 44,043 44,263 44,484 44,706 Pulses 4 Mil. lbs. 4,535 4,550 4,641 4,734 4,828 4,925 5,024 5,124 5,227 5,331 5,438 5,546 Total fruit, nuts, vegetables Mil. lbs. 200,470 200,412 201,074 202,263 203,018 203,793 204,588 205,403 206,238 207,093 207,968 208,864 Imports

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 41,597 42,197 42,719 43,734 45,137 46,586 48,082 49,628 51,225 52,874 54,578 56,337

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 20,928 20,568 20,780 21,204 21,780 22,372 22,980 23,604 24,246 24,905 25,581 26,277 Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 18,456 19,196 19,446 19,932 20,649 21,393 22,163 22,961 23,787 24,644 25,531 26,450

Use

Exports

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 20,019 23,034 23,800 24,197 24,602 25,014 25,435 25,865 26,303 26,749 27,205 27,670

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 7,817 9,238 9,553 9,689 9,827 9,968 10,111 10,257 10,406 10,558 10,713 10,871 Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 10,552 11,927 12,285 12,481 12,681 12,884 13,090 13,299 13,512 13,728 13,948 14,171

Domestic use 5

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 222,048 219,575 219,993 221,800 223,554 225,365 227,235 229,167 231,160 233,217 235,341 237,531

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 72,159 75,699 75,476 75,657 75,997 76,359 76,744 77,151 77,582 78,037 78,516 79,020 Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 149,062 143,048 143,723 145,309 146,681 148,085 149,524 150,998 152,508 154,056 155,642 157,267

Farm sales value 6

Fruit and nuts $ Mil. 17,765 18,449 18,922 19,409 19,909 20,424 20,954 21,498 22,059 22,636 23,229 23,839

Citrus $ Mil. 2,292 2,304 2,315 2,327 2,338 2,350 2,362 2,374 2,385 2,397 2,409 2,421 Noncitrus $ Mil. 11,502 12,032 12,345 12,667 12,997 13,335 13,682 14,038 14,404 14,779 15,164 15,559 Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,971 4,114 4,262 4,415 4,574 4,739 4,910 5,086 5,270 5,459 5,656 5,859
Vegetables and melons $ Mil. 20,865 21,878 22,313 22,759 23,213 23,676 24,149 24,631 25,123 25,626 26,138 26,661

Fresh market 2 $ Mil. 6,640 6,739 6,995 7,149 7,306 7,467 7,631 7,799 7,971 8,146 8,325 8,509 Processing 3 $ Mil. 2,592 2,833 3,032 3,086 3,142 3,198 3,256 3,314 3,374 3,435 3,497 3,560 Potatoes $ Mil. 2,960 3,233 3,039 3,096 3,155 3,215 3,276 3,339 3,402 3,467 3,533 3,600 Pulses 4 $ Mil. 878 966 898 923 948 973 999 1,026 1,054 1,083 1,112 1,142

Nursery and greenhouse 7 $ Mil. 17,179 17,453 17,733 18,016 18,305 18,597 18,895 19,197 19,505 19,817 20,134 20,456

Total horticulture crops 8 $ Mil. 56,387 58,362 59,553 60,771 62,017 63,291 64,593 65,926 67,289 68,683 70,109 71,567

Producer prices 9

Fruit and tree nuts 2000=100 181.1 172.6 177.3 182.2 187.2 192.3 197.5 202.9 208.4 214.0 219.7 225.6

Citrus 2000=100 150.4 121.7 124.2 126.7 129.3 131.9 134.6 137.3 140.1 143.0 145.9 148.8 Noncitrus 2000=100 152.2 158.4 161.7 165.1 168.6 172.1 175.7 179.4 183.1 187.0 190.9 194.9 Tree nuts 2000=100 144.7 146.5 148.2 149.8 151.4 153.1 154.7 156.4 158.1 159.7 161.5 163.2
Vegetables and melons 2000=100 128.6 140.1 142.1 143.6 145.5 147.5 149.5 151.6 153.6 155.7 157.8 159.9

Fresh market 2000=100 110.1 113.1 118.0 119.2 120.4 121.6 122.9 124.1 125.4 126.6 127.9 129.2 Processing 2000=100 120.5 135.5 146.7 148.6 151.5 154.6 157.7 160.8 164.1 167.3 170.7 174.1 Potatoes 2000=100 147.8 175.7 159.4 160.8 163.1 165.3 167.6 170.0 172.4 174.8 177.2 179.7
Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 2000=100 145.7 152.1 155.0 157.6 160.6 163.6 166.6 169.8 172.9 176.2 179.4 182.8 1/ Bearing acreage for fruit and nuts; harvested area for vegetables. 2/ Includes melons, sweet potatoes, fresh mushrooms, and California specialty vegetables. 3/ Major processing vegetables and agaricus mushrooms. 4/ Includes edible dry beans and peas, lentils, and other peas. 5/ Calculated b y adding farm weight production to imports, then subtracting exports. Stocks are not accounted for. 6/ Farm cash receipts except for major fresh market and proc essing vegetables, which are from production values. 7/ Includes floral crops, greenhouse vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumbers, and colored peppers, and fruit /vegetable transplants. 8/ Includes honey, maple syrup, hops, mint oils, and coffee. 9/ Based on cash receipts of U.S. farmers relative to their farm weight produ ction. Data source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; Foreign Agricultural Service; Economic Research Service.

# USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 43 Table 18. Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal years Item Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Exports Fruit and nuts Fresh fruits $ Mil. 3,010 3,574 3,999 4,093 4,189 4,287 4,388 4,491 4,596 4,703 4,813 4,925 Citrus $ Mil. 668 856 1,194 1,199 1,202 1,205 1,207 1,208 1,208 1,207 1,205 1,202 Noncitrus $ Mil. 2,342 2,718 2,805 2,894 2,987 3,083 3,181 3,283 3,388 3,497 3,608 3,724 Processed fruits $ Mil. 2,013 2,355 2,414 2,474 2,536 2,599 2,664 2,731 2,799 2,869 2,941 3,014 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,022 1,157 1,187 1,218 1,249 1,282 1,315 1,349 1,384 1,420 1,457 1,495 Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,025 3,487 3,600 3,726 3,856 3,991 4,131 4,276 4,425 4,580 4,741 4,906 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 8,048 9,415 10,013 10,293 10,581 10,878 11,183 11,497 11,820 12,153 12,494 12,846
Vegetables Fresh $ Mil. 1,775 1,941 2,001 2,063 2,127 2,193 2,261 2,331 2,403 2,478 2,555 2,634 Processed 1 $ Mil. 2,387 3,015 3,093 3,174 3,256 3,341 3,428 3,517 3,608 3,702 3,798 3,897 Total vegetables $ Mil. 4,162 4,956 5,094 5,237 5,383 5,534 5,689 5,848 6,012 6,180 6,353 6,531
Other horticulture

Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 357 373 381 389 398 406 414 423 432 441 450 460 Essential oils $ Mil. 1,142 1,278 1,318 1,359 1,401 1,444 1,489 1,535 1,583 1,632 1,682 1,734 Wine $ Mil. 906 966 1,005 1,045 1,087 1,130 1,175 1,222 1,271 1,322 1,375 1,430 Beer $ Mil. 232 266 267 268 270 271 272 274 275 277 278 279 Other 2 $ Mil. 3,173 3,541 3,422 3,549 3,680 3,816 3,958 4,104 4,256 4,413 4,577 4,746

Total horticulture $ Mil. 18,020 20,795 21,500 22,140 22,799 23,479 24,180 24,903 25,649 26,417 27,209 28,027

Fresh 3 $ Mil. 4,786 5,515 6,000 6,156 6,316 6,480 6,649 6,822 6,999 7,181 7,368 7,559 Processed 3 $ Mil. 4,399 5,370 5,600 5,734 5,872 6,013 6,157 6,305 6,456 6,611 6,770 6,932 Export share of production 4 Percent 32 36 36 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 39 39 Imports Fruit and nuts Fresh fruits $ Mil. 5,401 5,544 5,600 5,824 6,057 6,299 6,551 6,813 7,086 7,369 7,664 7,971 Citrus $ Mil. 499 417 288 321 356 393 432 474 518 565 615 668 Noncitrus $ Mil. 4,903 5,127 5,312 5,503 5,701 5,906 6,119 6,339 6,567 6,804 7,049 7,303 Processed fruits $ Mil. 3,416 3,984 4,400 4,572 4,750 4,935 5,128 5,328 5,535 5,751 5,976 6,209 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,616 1,935 2,000 2,074 2,151 2,230 2,313 2,398 2,487 2,579 2,675 2,774 Tree nuts $ Mil. 1,078 1,277 1,400 1,457 1,517 1,579 1,644 1,712 1,782 1,855 1,931 2,010 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 9,896 10,805 11,400 11,853 12,324 12,814 13,323 13,852 14,403 14,975 15,570 16,189
Vegetables Fresh $ Mil. 4,165 4,442 4,500 4,698 4,905 5,121 5,346 5,581 5,827 6,083 6,351 6,630 Processed 1 $ Mil. 3,149 3,520 3,700 3,841 3,987 4,138 4,295 4,458 4,628 4,804 4,986 5,176 Total vegetables $ Mil. 7,314 7,962 8,200 8,539 8,891 9,259 9,641 10,040 10,455 10,887 11,337 11,806
Other horticulture

Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 1,531 1,514 1,500 1,541 1,582 1,625 1,669 1,714 1,760 1,808 1,856 1,906 Essential oils $ Mil. 2,431 2,653 2,800 2,864 2,930 2,998 3,067 3,137 3,209 3,283 3,359 3,436 Wine $ Mil. 4,543 4,755 4,800 4,987 5,182 5,384 5,594 5,812 6,039 6,274 6,519 6,773 Beer $ Mil. 3,686 3,662 3,600 3,701 3,804 3,911 4,020 4,133 4,249 4,368 4,490 4,616 Other 2 $ Mil. 2,985 3,360 3,494 3,634 3,779 3,931 4,088 4,251 4,421 4,598 4,782 4,974
Total horticulture $ Mil. 32,386 34,712 35,794 37,119 38,493 39,920 41,401 42,939 44,535 46,193 47,913 49,700

Fresh 3 $ Mil. 9,567 9,986 10,100 10,522 10,962 11,420 11,897 12,394 12,912 13,452 14,015 14,601 Processed 3 $ Mil. 6,565 7,505 8,100 8,412 8,736 9,073 9,423 9,786 10,163 10,555 10,962 11,384
Import share of domestic use 4 Percent 46 48 49 49 50 50 51 51 52 52 53 54 1/ Includes dry edible beans, peas, lentils, and potatoes. 2/ Includes hops, ginseng, sauces, condiments, mixed food, yeast, starches, etc. that contain horticulture ingredients. 3/ Includes fruits and vegetables only. 4/ Percent shares are based on values. Exports are free alongside ship (FAS) value at U.S. port of exportation. Imports are customs value at U.S. port of entry. Data source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.