|In the past four         years, a newer group called the Taliban has gained control         of most of Afghanistan. The Taliban, whose name means         "students," have their roots in the Pakistan-based         seminaries established for Afghan refugees during the Soviet         occupation.                                                                                                                                                                                    International         observers fear that the Afghan conflict may escalate into a         regional one. Currently, more than 200,000 Iranian troops         are amassed along the Iranian-Afghan border in response to         the killing of a journalist and eight people Iran says were         diplomats and the Taliban contend were military advisors.                                                                                                                                                                                    From the point of view         of the Taliban, there is no "crisis" in Afghanistan to be         resolved. The only action needed is for the rest of the         international community to recognize the Taliban as the         legitimate government of Afghanistan.                                    The Taliban have         created serious problems for Pakistan. Afghanistan's porous         borders allow for a prosperous drug trade. . .[and]         transnational militant Sunni organizations in Kashmir, the         Punjab, and Afghanistan have grown over the past 10 to 15         years and pose an increasing security risk to regional         states.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The civil war in         Afghanistan has helped maintain Russian influence in Central         Asia. Central Asian states had earlier hoped that trade         routes through Afghanistan could be their lifeline to the         outside world. Such hopes have proven misplaced.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Uzbekistan and Russia         have tried to influence the military situation in Northern         Afghanistan. Both will continue to be involved in a reactive         military way if they believe that it is in their national         security interest.                                                                                                                                                                                    The tensions with         Afghanistan occur in an environment of increasing challenges         to Iran's long-term security.                                                                        The most likely course         of action for Iran is the one they are already engaging in:         indirect support for the Taliban's         opposition.                                                                                                                                                                  If U.S.-Iranian         relations continue to thaw, there are three areas of         potential cooperation with the United States in the future:         terrorism, drugs, and weapons of mass         destruction.                                                                                                                                                                                    Cruise missile attacks         against Osama bin Laden in August 1998 are a reminder that         Afghanistan is now a global problem. Afghanistan has become         a haven for some of the most lethal anti-United States         terrorist organizations.                                                                                                            There has been a gap         between U.S. objectives and U.S. strategy in dealing with         Afghanistan.                                                                        The problem with         [a limited involvement] approach is that it could         result in . . . a hostile rogue state closely linked to         international terrorism and drug trafficking. . .         [and] could also mean the continued violations of         human rights and continued threats to regional peace and         stability. | The Taliban and Afghanistan:                  Implications for Regional Security and         Options for International Action                  Key Points                  A two-decade-long civil war which began as an            insurgency against the former communist-led government in            Kabul has led to the surprising emergence of the Taliban            as the leading power in Afghanistan. The Taliban are            championed as the bearers of peace and the saviors of            Afghan sovereignty by some; however, the rise of this            largely rural, Pashtun-dominated Islamic fundamentalist            movement is provoking wider regional fears of conflict            and instability. Its version of Islamic law is considered            the most draconian in the world, and it has been            denounced by avowedly Islamic states such as Saudi Arabia            and Iran. Neighboring countries are wary that Taliban            rule in Afghanistan could lead to a persistent pattern of            armed border clashes, illegal narcotics trafficking,            terrorism, and the rekindling of ethnic and sectarian            tensions throughout the region. Afghanistan poses an            enormous challenge to an international community            distracted by other priorities and lacking effective            policy options for containing the dangerous spillover of            Afghanistan's political, military, and social upheaval            into neighboring states.                        Pakistan is experiencing an alarming increase in the            incidence of violence from Taliban-aligned extremists            seeking to impose Islamic law by force. Yet Pakistan's            challenges transcend the Taliban, as Islamabad's            problematic engagement of Afghanistan the past two            decades has demonstrated. Indirect threats such as those            posed by a growing drug trade and terrorism are huge            problems because of the fragility of Pakistan's own civil            society and internal political situation.                        Developments in Afghanistan are also spilling over            into the states of Central Asia, which are still emerging            from seventy years of Soviet rule. The five Central Asian            states (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,            and Turkmenistan) are threatened by a lucrative opium and            heroin trade, financial crisis, refugee migration flows,            and the potential rise of Islamic opposition movements.            Above all else, these states fear internal economic            collapse, which could send them begging to Moscow for            economic and security assistance.                        The Islamic Republic of Iran harbors especially deep            suspicions of the Taliban. First, deep doctrinal            differences divide the religious leaderships in the two            countries. Second, a Taliban-led Afghanistan adds to            Iran's sense of encirclement by hostile Sunni states.            Finally, the Taliban's treatment of Shi'ite minorities in            Afghanistan arouses alarm in Tehran. Divisions exist            within Iran about whether to engage the Taliban directly            or to continue covert support for Hezb-i-Wahdat (the            Unity Party), the largely Shi'ite umbrella party fighting            to overthrow the Taliban. Recent border skirmishes            between Iran and Afghanistan highlight the real potential            for an expansion of tensions to a wider, interstate            war.                        Even though Afghanistan is no longer an important            Cold War battleground, it continues to engage U.S.            interest in such areas as containing terrorism, curbing            illegal drug trafficking, and checking human rights            violations. In trying to pursue U.S. interests,            policymakers face a stark set of policy options, each            carrying considerable risks and limited prospects for            success. The present tentative and reactive policy being            pursued by the United States and other global powers            appears unlikely to stem regional problems flowing from            Afghanistan. Thus, U.S. policymakers and other            international actors face the difficult challenge of            balancing the constraints posed by limited political will            with the sobering task of managing the myriad tensions            sparked by a Taliban-led Afghanistan.Back To Top                  Introduction                  For more than twenty years, war has consumed Afghanistan.         In 1979, the Soviet Union launched an invasion of the         country in order to prop up a pro-communist regime in Kabul.         The United States and Pakistan played leading roles backing         various Afghan guerrilla forces, known collectively as         "mujahideen" (religious warriors), which gradually wore down         the Soviet occupying force. Afghanistan's civil war         continued after a Soviet pullout in 1989 as various         mujahideen factions fought to fill the power vacuum. In the         past four years, a newer group called the Taliban has gained         control of most of Afghanistan. The Taliban, whose name         means "students," have their roots in the Pakistan-based         seminaries established for Afghan refugees during the Soviet         occupation. The movement got a significant boost from the         Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI, which reportedly         provided extensive organizational, logistical, and material         support to the Taliban militia. The core of the Taliban are         from the Pashtun ethnic group, the largest single group in         Afghanistan but still a minority of the population. Pashtuns         are also a significant ethnic group in Pakistan, where they         are heavily represented in the military.                  The Taliban captured the Afghan capital, Kabul, in 1996,         and now reportedly control all but the Panjshir Valley and         other smaller areas in northern Afghanistan. They have         imposed a highly restrictive form of Islamic law throughout         Afghanistan which Muslim and non-Muslim observers have         described as inhumane. Some see the Taliban's efforts to be         not so much Islamic as an attempt to impose rural tribal         mores onto the rest of the country. International concern is         mounting about the treatment of Afghan women, who are         usually denied schooling, medical care, and freedom to         travel except under strict conditions. There have also been         widespread reports of extrajudicial killings throughout         Afghanistan as well as reports of massacres as the Taliban         conquered new territory.                  The Taliban reportedly support their regime partly from         profits in the opium trade. The Taliban directly tax         domestic growers as well as traders who traffic in the         narcotics. Sharp increases in Afghan production have left         Afghanistan lagging behind only Burma as the world's largest         producer of opium products in the world, amounting to 2,800         metric tons in 1997. The two countries combined account for         90 percent of opium production worldwide. The Taliban have         further angered the international community by sheltering         Saudi-born terrorist Osama bin Laden, who was linked by the         U.S. government to the bombings of two U.S. embassies in         Africa in August 1998. Later in the same month, U.S. cruise         missiles attacked training sites in Afghanistan associated         with bin Laden. The Taliban insist that bin Laden had         nothing to do with the terrorist attacks that killed more         than 300 people and wounded another 5,000, but they have         only belatedly indicated a willingness to help clarify his         possible role.                  International observers fear that the Afghan conflict may         escalate into a regional one. Currently, more than 200,000         Iranian troops are amassed along the Iranian-Afghan border         in response to the killing of a journalist and eight people         Iran says were diplomats and the Taliban contend were         military advisors. Relations with other international actors         are strained or nonexistent. International human rights         groups and aid missions have withdrawn from the country         because of the harassment and killing of aid workers.         Despite the fact that the Taliban control at least 90         percent of the territory of Afghanistan, only Pakistan,         Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates recognize the         Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, and         those relations are fraying.                  At the end of September, Afghanistan's neighboring         countries, as well as Russia and the United States, renewed         their calls for a peace settlement in Afghanistan. They         agreed to send the chief UN negotiator for Afghanistan to         visit the region.                  Against this backdrop, five panelists convened to         consider the situation in Afghanistan and its possible         ideological, sectarian, and economic impacts throughout the         region. This summary offers the views presented about         Taliban policies, how key regional actors are affected by         the current situation, and options for international         action.                  Back To Top                  The TalibanLaili         Helms                  Decades of foreign intervention have devastated         Afghanistan, laying waste to more than 75 percent of the         country. From 1978 until 1996, foreign intervention         sharpened internal ethnic and ideological differences,         tearing the country apart. During this time, Russia, Iran,         the United States, and other countries ignored ethnically         motivated massacres, rapes, and human rights abuses.         Downplaying persistent and credible reports from         nongovernmental organizations of human rights abuses by the         Taliban, Helms attributed the recent international focus on         the social conditions in Afghanistan to a singular cause:         economic interests, and especially access to the potentially         vast energy resources in the Caspian Basin region.                  Helms painted a sympathetic portrait of life in         Afghanistan under Taliban rule. Afghans of all ethnicities         welcome the Taliban as heroes who have restored peace to         Afghanistan. Most of the country is now peaceful and         disarmed, trade routes to Central Asia are beginning to         prosper, the value of the currency has increased, and         agriculture has improved. The Taliban are also effectively         governing Afghanistan. They have secured all borders except         a small portion of the border with Tajikistan, and control         all major points of entry.                  Helms claimed that the Taliban's government is         accountable to the people and is representative of all         ethnic groups. The majority of the government's cabinet         members are from ethnic minorities, for example. The Taliban         have restored Afghan culture, Afghan-style self-rule is         implemented in the provinces, and the civil administration         and justice system is based on Islamic and Afghan         traditions.                  Regarding terrorism, Helms asserts that it was the former         president, Burhanuddin Rabbani, who invited Osama bin Laden         to Afghanistan. The Taliban inherited this problem, and         would be happy to cooperate with bin Laden's extradition if         the U.S. government or other interested parties could show         evidence of his terrorist activities.                  Efforts to isolate what should be considered the         legitimate government of Afghanistan have been deleterious         for the country, Helms argued. The Taliban want national         unity based on the rule of law and civil society. They are         not a fundamentalist group, and they are not anti-Western or         anti-American. They do not represent a threat to their         neighbors. The Taliban want an enduring peace, national         security, and respect for Afghan beliefs and traditions.                  From the point of view of the Taliban, there is no         "crisis" in Afghanistan to be resolved. The only action         needed is for the rest of the international community to         recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of         Afghanistan, and to deal with them as such. Clearly they are         the de facto rulers, and they would like recognition of         their legitimacy. It is the responsibility of the         international community to help Afghanistan peacefully         rebuild under the Taliban, Helms contended.                  Several panel members and audience members disputed         Helms' portrayal of Afghanistan under the Taliban. Some         cited press accounts, published reports, or personal         experiences to depict a situation in which aid agencies have         difficulty gaining access to vulnerable populations, girls         are denied schooling, and ethnic minorities have in some         instances been massacred . For the most part, women are not         allowed to work, and are denied access to health care         despite international pressure to force the Taliban to         reverse themselves on the issue.                  Helms responded that the Taliban are ready to work with         donor countries to open universities for women, that         conditions in the countryside are much safer than before the         Taliban were in power, and that the reports of massacres are         allegations that will be found untrue when the United         Nations completes its investigations.                  Back To Top                  PakistanPaula         Newberg                  (Paula Newberg was speaking in her personal capacity and         not as a representative of the United Nations.)                  Afghanistan is one of the most important defining issues         for Pakistan in terms of security, domestic politics,         ideology, and political identity. In fact, engagement in         Afghanistan has been problematic for Pakistan for more than         twenty years.                  In security terms, Pakistan has always seen Afghanistan         as an element of its India policy. It has sought to protect         its western border in response to insecurity on its eastern         border with India. To this end, Pakistan's long-standing         objective in Afghanistan has been to have a         Pashtun-dominated government in Kabul. The reasoning was         that such a government would be friendly to Pakistan, which         also has a significant Pashtun population.                  In practice, the Taliban have created serious problems         for Pakistan. Afghanistan's porous borders allow for a         prosperous drug trade, bringing with it corruption and         organizations that operate outside the law. In addition,         transnational militant Sunni organizations in Kashmir, the         Punjab, and Afghanistan have grown over the past 10 to 15         years and pose an increasing security risk to regional         states. Tides of refugees have strengthened the cross-border         ties of Islamist political organizations, and Pakistan's         internal weakness has proven fertile ground for such         movements.                  Although its security services played a major role in         creating the Taliban, Pakistan cannot control them despite         leading the world to believe it might be able to. Pakistan         offered the Taliban recognition in an attempt to keep its         ties strong, but it is discovering that the interests of the         Taliban may be very different from its own. Further,         Pakistan cannot control the Taliban's supporters within         Pakistan, and it fears that Afghan refugees still in         Pakistan may become a fifth column.                  Pakistan's political system is very fragile, and economic         pressures from decades of mounting debt combined with         political and economic corruption have made the country         virtually ungovernable. Pakistan's borders are not secure,         and the government has only a tenuous grip on the         law-and-order situation.                  In addition, Pakistan's relationship with the United         States is under severe strain. At the height of the         relationship during the 1980s, Pakistan believed American         interests in Afghanistan to be identical to its own. In the         past decade, Pakistan was surprised to discover that         America's involvement in Northwest Asia was purely a         function of Cold War interests. Pakistan now finds itself at         odds with the United States on a range of issues including         support for the Taliban, and has found it difficult to         extricate itself from its former policies.                  Although Pakistan has not been able to adapt its policies         to changing circumstances, the Taliban have proven to be         highly malleable. They are a coalition built on arms, not         ideology, and all the interests of its constituent parts are         never clear. Owing to the influences mentioned above,         however, Pakistan's foreign policy is too inflexible to         respond to the evolution of the situation. Newberg advised         that Pakistan should work its way out of its Afghan problem         by working its way out of its own domestic political         problems. It should address its own governance problems in         order to change the way in which it makes and executes its         foreign policy. The civil war in Afghanistan poses         challenges for Pakistan, but it is not as great a problem as         Pakistan's own domestic political turmoil. Internal         weaknesses are the greatest threat to Pakistan right         now.                  Back To Top                  Central Asian         States and Russia         Martha Brill Olcott                  The five Central Asian states and Russia all strongly         believe that their security interests are directly         threatened by Afghanistan's civil war. As a region, the         Central Asian states are threatened by drug trafficking, the         narrowing of financial and security options, and the         potential rise of anti-regime Islamic movements. As         individual states, they face threats ranging from the         migration of refugee populations to direct security threats         and ongoing civil war.                  These states are affected most directly by the growing         drug trade and the corruption of security and other state         officials by the drug trade. Not only is Afghanistan a         source of drugs and drug traders, but as the drug trade         moves through Central Asia, the Central Asians have observed         the lucrative nature of drug trafficking. As a result,         indigenous drug trade within Central Asia is on the rise,         and there is a growing consensus among Central Asian         governments that greater international involvement in drug         control is needed in the region.                  The civil war in Afghanistan has helped maintain Russian         influence in Central Asia. Central Asian states had earlier         hoped that trade routes through Afghanistan could be their         lifeline to the outside world. Such hopes have proven         misplaced. Another possible trade outlet, Iran, remains         problematic because of its limited links to other countries         and the dampening effects of U.S. sanctions on the regime in         Tehran. Continued turmoil in Afghanistan increases the         geographic isolation of the Central Asian states and         increases their dependence on Russia. Although the Central         Asian states are learning to be more independent in terms of         security and want to wean themselves from Russia's security         net, the Taliban's presence in Afghanistan and the threat of         Taliban-inspired opposition movements in neighboring states         have made it difficult to develop the confidence to do         so.                  Most Central Asian states consider the threats posed by         Afghanistan to be less critical than their own internal         threats. With the possible exception of Uzbekistan, they         consider internal economic collapse to be the greatest         threat because it creates the risk of concurrent political         collapse. The Afghan crisis is still less important to them         than Russia's financial crisis and their difficulties in         attracting foreign investment.                  For individual states, the domestic effects of the civil         war in Afghanistan vary. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan perceive         a direct security threat. Afghanistan served as a home for         the Tajik opposition, prolonging the civil war in Tajikistan         for several years. Tajikistan now suffers from continued         internal instability and an ongoing inability to put its         peace agreement into effect. Any risk from outside the         country could have a critical influence on the tenuous         situation. Uzbekistan is concerned about the stability of         the border region it shares with Tajikistan and Afghanistan.         The migration of displaced Uzbeks and Tajiks may upset the         historically fragile ethnic balance in the region.                  Turkmenistan also faces a potentially direct security         threat from the civil war but has chosen to respond to the         economic threat rather than the political one. Out of         concern for the need to transport goods through Afghanistan,         Turkmenistan has not participated in any Central Asian         efforts to isolate the Taliban, although it has also not         directly recognized the Taliban government. If Iran takes         military action, Turkmenistan will have difficulty balancing         its relations with Iran with its relations with Pakistan. Of         the remaining states, Kyrgyzstan is affected most by the         drug trade and the refugees coming from Tajikistan.         Kazakhstan and Russia have been the least affected by the         Afghan situation.                  How are the Central Asian states responding to these         threats? Some have become directly involved in the conflict.         Uzbekistan and Russia have tried to influence the military         situation in Northern Afghanistan. Both will continue to be         involved in a reactive military way if they believe that it         is in their national security interest. Turkmenistan served         as a supplier and pass-through for military aid in 1997.         These states are not likely to believe that their military         actions will be decisive in determining the outcome in         Afghanistan in the near future, but they see a need to be         vigilant.                  In general, the region is increasingly concerned about         the prospect of negotiations in Afghanistan and about         cutting off contamination from anti-regime influences. The         experience of trying to implement a peace process in         Tajikistan raises concern among regional actors that a peace         process is not going to lead to any regional stability in         the very near future. Because of the experience of Taliban         rule in Afghanistan, the Central Asian states perceive the         need to keep tighter control at home, increase         centralization, bolster internal security forces, and be         more vigilant in cracking down against anti-regime Islamic         activists.                  Back To Top                  Iran         Geoffrey Kemp                  The possibility of a military confrontation between Iran         and Afghanistan is evidenced by the fact that they are         maneuvering forces along their joint border. The murder of         Iranian diplomats by Taliban forces, whether authorized or         not, has created outrage in Iran. Throughout the country         there is strong nationalism and desire for revenge.         Additionally, strong ideological differences exist between         Iran and Afghanistan. There are internal divisions about how         to respond, however. It is not clear whether Iran will         decide to engage the Taliban directly or continue to         indirectly support the Taliban's opposition.                  The tensions with Afghanistan occur in an environment of         increasing challenges to Iran's long-term security.         Afghanistan threatens to use its SCUD missiles against Iran.         India and Pakistan have recently tested nuclear weapons, and         likely will ultimately be able to reach Iran with the         missile programs they are developing. This adds to the         Iranian sense of encirclement from the U.S. military forces         in the Gulf, the Saudi air force, the Turkish air force, and         the Israeli air force and nuclear program. The recent         security climate bolsters groups within Iran who argue for a         strong missile program and the development of weapons of         mass destruction.                  From an Iranian point of view, serious strategic issues         are on the table. Many Iranians believe that, at least until         recently, the Taliban were indirectly supported by the         United States, with direct support from Pakistan and         economic backing from Saudi Arabia. They perceive the         support of the Taliban to be part of a strategy of         surrounding Iran with aggressive Sunni states. In addition,         Iran has the world's second-largest reserves of natural gas         but is presently exporting virtually none of it. Iran feels         it has been stabbed in the back by an American policy         working to ensure that Iran does not become one of the         egress routes for the oil and gas resources of the         Caspian.                  All of this is taking place against the backdrop of a         volatile domestic situation in Iran. Conservatives and         moderates are involved in an intense political struggle.         Further, plummeting oil prices have brought about an         economic crisis.                  The most likely course of action for Iran is the one they         are already engaging in: indirect support for the Taliban's         opposition. This will probably continue provided it is         logistically feasible; this course of action is becoming         increasingly difficult as the Taliban take control of more         Afghan territory. Some in Iran favor a direct confrontation,         but there is no easy war scenario, given the terrain and         capacity of the Taliban to resist foreign intervention. Iran         has far superior numbers, so a limited military victory is         possible at the outset, but there would be no easy exit         strategy. Of additional concern are the more than 1.5         million Afghans in Iran. Fear exists that some of this         population could become fifth columnists, waging a terror         campaign within Iran itself at the time of a cross-border         confrontation.                  Iran may find two unlikely partners on the Afghan issue.         The first is Saudi Arabia. Since last December, Iran and         Saudi Arabia have enjoyed dramatically improved diplomatic         relations. Although Saudi Arabia has been a financial backer         of the Taliban for many years, they are infuriated that the         Taliban continue to provide shelter for Osama bin Laden, who         in addition to his anti-American activities seeks to         overthrow the Saudi regime. In September, the Saudis         expelled the Afghan ambassador in Saudi Arabia and withdrew         their ambassador from Afghanistan.                  The second surprising partner is the United States. If         U.S.-Iranian relations continue to thaw, there are three         areas of potential cooperation with the United States in the         future: terrorism, drugs, and weapons of mass destruction.         Kemp believes that it is in America's long-term strategic         interests to repair the relationship with Iran. Cross-border         conflict could undermine the positive evolution of this         relationship. For this reason, the United States should do         what it can to help bring about a settlement before the         Afghan conflict evolves into a regional war.                  Back To Top                  U.S.         Policy and Possibilities for International         Action                  Zalmay Khalilzad                  Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has         underestimated its interests in Afghanistan and the region.         Most Americans probably view Afghanistan as a faraway place         of little importance. In reality, it has great strategic,         economic, and historic significance for the United States.         The cruise missile attacks against Osama bin Laden in August         1998 are a reminder that Afghanistan is now a global         problem. Afghanistan has become a haven for some of the most         lethal anti-United States terrorist organizations. It is         also the second-largest producer of heroin in the world. The         conflict in Afghanistan could threaten stability in the         Gulf, Central Asia, or South Asia. Additionally, the United         States has strong humanitarian interests in Afghanistan         because of the high infant mortality rate, the refugee         problem, and the treatment of women and minorities.                  Khalilzad believes that the United States has a moral         responsibility in Afghanistan stemming from the historic         legacy of the Cold War. Many of the current problems can be         directly traced to the Cold War, during which the people of         Afghanistan suffered greatly. The United States has an         obligation to the Afghan people, who were instrumental in         bringing about the collapse of the Soviet Union.                  There has been a gap between U.S. objectives and U.S.         strategy in dealing with Afghanistan. The United States has         stated laudable objectives since 1992. It wants an end to         the civil war, establishment of a representative government         that respects international norms (especially with regard to         terrorism, drug trafficking, and human rights), and an end         to foreign interference. The United States has no real         strategy to achieve these objectives, however. It has         supported UN efforts for a negotiated settlement, but has         offered no positive or negative incentives to change the         situation. Since 1992, U.S. engagement has been relatively         limited despite its considerable interests in the region.         Consequently, a vacuum was created by the Soviet departure         and U.S. disengagement, which resulted in a civil war with         increasingly ethnic divisions, the influx of terrorist         groups, and rivalry between regional powers, most notably         Iran and Pakistan.                  Because of the past neglect, the United States is left         with more difficult options to protect its interests in         Afghanistan and the region.                  Option 1: Limited InvolvementThe United States could continue to keep its distance            from both the Taliban and the opposition. The United            States would let the United Nations do what it can, yet            remain prepared to protect U.S. interests with missile            strikes or other means. The problem with this approach is            that it could result in the establishment of a hostile            rogue state closely linked to international terrorism and            drug trafficking. It could also mean the continued            violations of human rights and continued threats to            regional peace and stability.                        Option 2: Diplomatic EngagementAlternatively, the United States could strive to            engage the Taliban diplomatically. This could be done by            the United States alone or by a U.S.-led coalition. The            Taliban would be offered recognition, UN membership,            opposition to foreign interference in their affairs,            support for building pipelines over Afghanistan,            encouragement of the Taliban's opposition to enter into            good faith negotiations, and economic assistance in the            future. In exchange, the Taliban would agree to cooperate            on terrorism and drug trafficking, implement an immediate            cease-fire, open a dialogue on more representative            government, improve human rights, and cooperate on drug            trafficking and terrorism (including the extradition of            Osama bin Laden). Also needed would be a regional            understanding that no neighboring state would be able to            station troops, bases, or facilities within Afghanistan.            The problem with this scenario is the improbability that            the Taliban would accept such a proposition, or that the            United States could make such an offer.                        Option 3: Undermine the TalibanIn this scenario, the United States seeks to            transform the Taliban into something that ultimately can            accept the sort of conditions presented in the second            option. Alternatively, it could seek to overthrow the            Taliban, either immediately or over time. There are            several ways to approach this. The United States could            work with Saudi Arabia to further weaken Saudi Arabian            ties to the Taliban. Positive and negative incentives            could be used to increase leverage on Pakistan to            cooperate on the Afghan issue. Cooperation on Afghanistan            could be used to accelerate positive relations with Iran.            The United States could encourage the UN to be a greater            nuisance to the Taliban than it already is, namely            through more investigations. Finally, the most extreme            method is a covert program of support for the Taliban's            opponents. With all of these courses of action, the            United States could remain willing to engage the Taliban            when and if they change, and be ready to protect its            interests if they do not. The primary risk is that the            Taliban will become even more embedded in an anti-Western            agenda, cooperating with groups that are hostile to the            United States.                  These are not easy choices. Khalilzad believes, however,         that putting off confronting the situation in Afghanistan         would only result in a worse outcome for the United States         and the region. The time to face the challenge of         Taliban-controlled Afghanistan is now.                  Back To Top                  Appendix                  Biographies of the Panelists                  Laili Helms is an Afghan-American who serves as an         unofficial advisor to the Taliban in the United States. She         has helped the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan establish and         maintain contacts with the United Nations and U.S.         officials. In the past, Helms worked with humanitarian aid         agencies in Peshawar and traveled extensively throughout         Afghanistan.                  Paula Newberg has served as a special advisor to         the United Nations Humanitarian and Resident Coordinator for         Afghanistan for the past two years, and is currently senior         policy advisor to the Emergency Response Division of the         United Nations Development Program in New York. Newberg was         previously a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for         International Peace and the Institute for the Study of         Diplomacy at Georgetown University.                  Martha Brill Olcott is a senior associate at the         Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Olcott, who also         codirects the Carnegie Moscow Center's project on "Ethnicity         and Politics in the Former Soviet Union," is the author of         the book Central Asia's New States: Independence, Foreign         Policy, and Regional Security, published by the U.S.         Institute of Peace Press.                  Geoffrey Kemp is the director of Regional         Strategic Programs at the Nixon Center. His current areas of         interest focus on the geopolitics of energy in the Caspian         Basin and Persian Gulf and U.S. relations in the Middle         East, especially with Iran. During the Reagan         Administration, Kemp was special assistant to the president         for National Security Affairs and senior director for Near         East and South Asian Affairs on the National Security         Council staff.                  Zalmay Khalilzad is the program director for the         Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND's Project Air Force.         In the mid-1980s, he served as a member of the State         Department's Policy Planning staff, and then as special         advisor to the Undersecretary of State for Political         Affairs. In 1991-1992, he was also Assistant Deputy         Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Planning.                  Back To Top                  About the         Report                  On October 1, 1998, the United States Institute of Peace         and the Middle East Institute cosponsored a Current Issues         Briefing to explore the regional and security ramifications         of the Taliban movement's consolidation of power in         Afghanistan. After twenty years of war that has ravaged         Afghanistan, peace remains elusive, and leaders in adjacent         countries and the international community face a dearth of         options. In addition to persistent and credible reports of         abysmal human rights violations in Afghanistan, the country         bears watching because it may well provide the catalyst for         wider regional instability throughout parts of South and         Central Asia.                  Institute President Richard         H. Solomon moderated the briefing, which was attended by         approximately eighty policy analysts, media representatives,         and academics. This report, prepared by Namahashri Tavana,         Patrick         Cronin, and Jon         Alterman, summarizes the points made by the panelists.         The Institute is especially grateful to former U.S.         Institute of Peace Senior Fellow Marvin Weinbaum, who helped         to conceptualize the panel discussion.                  The views expressed in this report do not necessarily         reflect those of the United States Institute of Peace, which         does not advocate particular policies.
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