National Center for Statistics and Analysis 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

Research Note

DOT HS 809 680

December 2003

Recent Trends in Alcohol-Related Fatality Rates 

Rajesh Subramanian 

Introduction 

This Research Note serves as a companion publication to 

the Technical Report State Alcohol Related Fatality 

Rates (DOT HS 809 673). The purpose of this 

publication is to analyze the trend of alcohol-related 

fatality rates – expressed as the number of alcohol-related 

fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle Miles of Travel 

(VMT), over the last few years by state. As shown in 

Figure 1, the alcohol-related fatality rate for the nation 

has been dropping since 1982, the year NHTSA started 

estimating alcohol involvement in fatal crashes but has 

maintained a relatively flat since 1998. In 2002, the rate 

dipped marginally to 0.61 alcohol-related fatalities per 

100 Million VMT for the nation from 0.62 in 2001. 

Data and Methodology 

Alcohol-related fatalities are defined as fatalities that occur in crashes where at least one driver or nonoccupant 

(pedestrian or pedalcyclist) involved in a crash has a positive (0.01+) Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) 

value. The estimates of alcohol involvement are based on reported BAC values as well as estimated BAC 

values in those cases where the alcohol test results are not known. BAC values have been assigned using 

statistical procedures1 to drivers, pedestrians and pedalcyclists involved in fatal crashes only when their 

alcohol test results are unknown. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) releases VMT data each 

year by state and this enables the reporting of the rate of alcohol-related fatalities per 100 Million VMT 

for each state. This is the metric that will be used in analyzing the trends of the state rates since 1998.

Results 

In 2002, the national rate of alcohol-related fatalities declined marginally, about 3 percent, as compared to the 

rate in 1998. In the period between 1998 and 2002, the rate for 32 states declined, remained the same for two 

states and increased for 17 states. Thus, when comparing the alcohol-related fatality rate in 2002 as compared 

to that in 1998, the number of states with a lower rate outnumbered the number of states with a higher rate by a 

margin of 2 to 1. In this time, the number of alcohol-related fatalities increased by 746. Table 1 summarizes 

the change from 1998 to 2002 along the two categories of states with rising and declining rates. The states are 

sorted by the magnitude of the 2002 alcohol-related fatality rate. The rates are also highlighted if it reflects a 

decrease from the previous year. 

 

1 NHTSA uses multiple imputation to estimate missing BAC values in FARS. For more information refer to 

Transitioning to Multiple Imputation: A New Method for estimating missing BAC values in FARS [DOT HS 809 403]

U.S. Department 

Of Transportation 

National Highway 

Traffic Safety 

Administration 

Alcohol-Related Fatality Rate per 100 

Million VMT

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Rate
 National Center for Statistics and Analysis 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

Table 1: Alcohol-related Fatalities per 100 Million VMT by State, 1998-

2002, Sorted by Ascending 2002 Rate

Alcohol-Related Fatality Rate % Change (Rank) State 

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1998 to 2002 2001 to 2002 

Vermont 0.61 0.51 0.47 0.35 0.28 -54.10% ( 1) -20.00% ( 6) 

Utah 0.31 0.41 0.47 0.3 0.3 -3.23% (26) 0.00% (31) 

Maine 0.41 0.42 0.36 0.45 0.35 -14.63% (12) -22.22% ( 5) 

New York 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.39 0.36 -2.70% (28) -7.69% (18) 

Indiana 0.59 0.55 0.43 0.45 0.37 -37.29% ( 2) -17.78% ( 8) 

New Hampshire 0.54 0.55 0.41 0.54 0.41 -24.07% ( 7) -24.07% ( 3) 

Massachusetts 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.43 0.41 13.89% (43) -4.65% (26) 

Iowa 0.56 0.58 0.47 0.51 0.42 -25.00% ( 5) -17.65% ( 9) 

New Jersey 0.41 0.43 0.48 0.41 0.43 4.88% (36) 4.88% (36) 

Connecticut 0.49 0.45 0.52 0.52 0.45 -8.16% (19) -13.46% (11) 

Minnesota 0.57 0.4 0.49 0.42 0.47 -17.54% ( 8) 11.90% (40) 

Virginia 0.49 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.48 -2.04% (30) 4.35% (35) 

Maryland 0.46 0.44 0.48 0.54 0.49 6.52% (39) -9.26% (15) 

Michigan 0.59 0.59 0.54 0.53 0.49 -16.95% ( 9) -7.55% (19) 

Georgia 0.54 0.53 0.56 0.52 0.49 -9.26% (18) -5.77% (24) 

California 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.5 0.5 6.38% (38) 0.00% (31) 

Ohio 0.51 0.51 0.53 0.57 0.52 1.96% (33) -8.77% (16) 

Oregon 0.7 0.5 0.55 0.54 0.52 -25.71% ( 3) -3.70% (28) 

Oklahoma 0.64 0.61 0.53 0.62 0.54 -15.63% (11) -12.90% (12) 

Washington 0.6 0.52 0.54 0.52 0.54 -10.00% (17) 3.85% (34) 

Hawaii 0.74 0.54 0.64 0.68 0.56 -24.32% ( 6) -17.65% (10) 

Rhode Island 0.45 0.43 0.49 0.6 0.56 24.44% (46) -6.67% (20) 

Delaware 0.57 0.49 0.74 0.77 0.57 0.00% (32) -25.97% ( 2) 

Illinois 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.6 0.61 0.00% (32) 1.67% (33) 

Wisconsin 0.54 0.54 0.61 0.64 0.62 14.81% (45) -3.13% (29) 

Pennsylvania 0.64 0.61 0.63 0.63 0.63 -1.56% (31) 0.00% (31) 

Nebraska 0.68 0.7 0.58 0.52 0.63 -7.35% (20) 21.15% (45) 

Idaho 0.74 0.74 0.88 0.65 0.64 -13.51% (14) -1.54% (30) 

Kentucky 0.66 0.63 0.6 0.54 0.64 -3.03% (27) 18.52% (44) 

North Dakota 0.63 0.8 0.57 0.73 0.65 3.17% (35) -10.96% (14) 

North Carolina 0.68 0.65 0.69 0.59 0.65 -4.41% (25) 10.17% (39) 

Tennessee 0.82 0.8 0.82 0.79 0.69 -15.85% (10) -12.66% (13) 

Dist of Columbia 0.94 0.66 0.57 0.91 0.7 -25.53% ( 4) -23.08% ( 4) 

Alaska 0.69 0.88 1.21 1 0.71 2.90% (34) -29.00% ( 1) 

Colorado 0.62 0.56 0.64 0.76 0.71 14.52% (44) -6.58% (21) 

Florida 0.76 0.8 0.85 0.75 0.72 -5.26% (23) -4.00% (27) 

Alabama 0.8 0.83 0.75 0.66 0.72 -10.00% (17) 9.09% (38) 

Missouri 0.79 0.66 0.77 0.77 0.77 -2.53% (29) 0.00% (31) 

Wyoming 0.88 0.91 0.61 0.95 0.78 -11.36% (16) -17.89% ( 7) 

Texas 0.85 0.81 0.84 0.84 0.79 -7.06% (21) -5.95% (23) 

Arkansas 0.76 0.72 0.76 0.66 0.8 5.26% (37) 21.21% (46) 

Kansas 0.61 0.7 0.57 0.69 0.81 32.79% (48) 17.39% (42) 

West Virginia 0.8 0.78 0.94 0.69 0.9 12.50% (42) 30.43% (48) 

Mississippi 1.04 1.05 1.08 0.77 0.91 -12.50% (15) 18.18% (43) 

Arizona 0.98 0.91 0.95 0.98 0.93 -5.10% (24) -5.10% (25) 

New Mexico 0.88 0.92 0.94 0.93 0.94 6.82% (40) 1.08% (32) 

Louisiana 1.1 1.08 1.11 1.03 0.95 -13.64% (13) -7.77% (17) 

Nevada 1.02 0.88 0.79 0.73 0.95 -6.86% (22) 30.14% (47) 

South Dakota 0.84 0.8 0.98 1 1.08 28.57% (46) 8.00% (37) 

South Carolina 0.87 0.89 1.05 1.25 1.17 34.48% (49) -6.40% (22) 

Montana 1.1 1.11 1.18 1.04 1.22 10.91% (41) 17.31% (41) 

U.S. 0.63 0.62 0.63 0.62 0.61 -3.17% -1.61% 

Puerto Rico* 1.76 1.47 1.53 1.44 1.33 -24.43% -7.64% 

Source: NCSA FARS 1998-2001 (Final) and 2002 (ARF) Files, FHWA Highway Statistics Series 

Highlighted cells reflect a lower rate as compared to previous year
 National Center for Statistics and Analysis 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

Also shown in Table 1 is the percentage change in alcohol-related fatality rate since last year and the rank of 

this percentage change, as indicated in parenthesis. The lower ranks reflect highest decline in the rates among 

all the states. For example, when comparing the percentage change in the rates from 1998 to 2002, Vermont 

had the highest percentage decrease (-54%) and was hence ranked 1. For the same period, South Carolina had 

the highest percentage increase in the rate (34%) and was hence ranked 51. In 1998, Montana and Louisiana 

had the highest alcohol-related fatality rate of 1.1 in the nation while Utah’s rate of 0.31 was the lowest in the 

nation. In 2002, Montana had the highest rate of alcohol-related fatalities in the nation at 1.22 while Vermont 

had the lowest rate at 0.28. 

The following points highlight some of the year-to-year changes and trends among the states: 

Changes since 1998 

3⁄4 The alcohol-related fatality rate for nineteen states increased or remained flat from 1998. 

3⁄4 Thirty-two states had a decrease in their alcohol-related fatality rates from 1998. 

3⁄4 Since 1998, only Vermont has shown a consistent, year-to-year decline in their alcohol-related fatality 

rate. In the same period, its rate declined by 54 percent, the highest percentage decline among the 

states. The rate for South Carolina increased by about 34 percent since 1998, the highest percentage 

increase among the states. 

3⁄4 Since 1998, the highest rate of alcohol-related fatalities for any state was for 1.25 for South Carolina 

in 2001 and the lowest was 0.28 for Vermont in 2002. 

Changes from 2001 

3⁄4 The alcohol-related fatality rate for twenty-one states increased or remained flat from 2001 

3⁄4 Thirty states had a decrease in their alcohol-related fatality rates from 2001. 

3⁄4 For the thirty states that showed a decrease in their alcohol-related fatality rates, there were a total of 

603 fewer fatalities as compared to 2001. This however, was offset by an increase of 622 fatalities for 

the twenty-one states that showed an increase in their alcohol-related fatality rate. 

3⁄4 The alcohol-related fatality rate for West Virginia increased by about 30 percent from 2001, the 

highest such increase in the nation in terms of percentage change from 2001. On the other hand, the 

alcohol-related fatality rate in 2002 dropped 29 percent for Alaska, the highest such decrease among 

the states. 

Table 2 summarizes the changes in rates and fatalities. 

Table 2: Alcohol-Related Fatalities and Fatality Rates by Categories of Increasing and 

Decreasing Rates 

Alcohol-Related Fatality Rates Since 1998 Since 2001 

Number of 

States 

Change in Fatalities Number 

of States 

Change in Fatalities 

States with Higher/Flat Rates 19 923 21 +622 

States with Lower Rates 32 -180 30 -603 

U.S. - +746* - +19 

Source: NCSA FARS 1998-2001 (Final) and 2002 (ARF) Files, FHWA Highway Statistics Series 

*Note: Change in fatalities do not sum up to 746 due to independent rounding of the states numbers. 
 National Center for Statistics and Analysis 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590 

Conclusions 

In the absence of an exposure measure to quantify the extent of drunk driving on our roads, the Vehicle Miles 

of Travel (VMT) data serves as a proxy in order to standardize the extent of alcohol-related fatalities across the 

states. The rate of alcohol-related fatalities per VMT provides a metric to compare the extent of impaired 

driving across the states. Furthermore, states can use this metric to assess their progress over a period of time.