Colorado – Mesa Verde National Park: 

Class I area Reasonable Progress Profile Analysis 

Mesa Verde IMPROVE monitoring site 

October 26, 2007 Draft 

Background The Regional Haze Rule (RHR) requires each haze State Implementation Plan to set 2018 Reasonable Progress Goals (RPGs) 

(20% haziest) and average Best (20% clearest) days for each Class I area in that state, using the IMPROVE data collected duri

monitoring period as the starting point. By 2018, the average Worst days are expected to make “reasonable progress” through improve visibility on those haziest days, considering a number of factors. By 2018, the Best days are not to be degraded, i.e., 

same or better than the 2000-04 monitored Best days. A number of source category control programs (federal mobile rules, st

programs, state BART/Better-than-BART controls, point and area source controls implemented since the 2002 baseline emissi

cetera) have already been included in the analysis of the likely 2018 RPG values for each Class I area in the WRAP region. 

Behind the RPG concept is the known relationship between emissions reductions and improved visibility/reductions in haze. I

of the contribution of emissions to 2000-04 baseline conditions on the Worst and Best days, in terms of natural versus anthrop

versus uncontrollable emissions is necessary, given the magnitude of natural and uncontrollable emissions in the West. Detailprojections of controllable anthropogenic sources have been made by WRAP Forums and Workgroup to account for the list of technologies, programs, and strategies known to be in effect by 2018. In contrast, natural and uncontrollable emissions were hhaze modeling for the 2018 planning milestone, as predictions about change by 2018 and interannual variation in these emissio

To assist haze planners in setting RPGs, and to assess the need and potential for any additional controls beyond those already i

WRAP region haze analyses, this document describes the analysis to be performed for each Class I area in the WRAP region. for use by those knowledgeable in the details of the RHR and associated planning requirements. WRAP staff will provide stan

and causes of haze at each Class I area monitoring site, then each state would carry the process to complete analyses to providinformation to set reasonable progress goals and determine long-term strategies in their SIP. 

Weight of Evidence Analysis Process – Colorado: Mesa Verde National Park Class I area The monitoring, modeling, and emissions data and source apportionment results for this Class I area is represented by the Mes

monitoring site. 
1) Mesa Verde National Park Class I area 2000-04 baseline period light extinction budget measured at the Mesa Verde IMPR

2
2) Emissions sources and regions shown to be/potentially affecting the Mesa Verde National Park Class I area reported b

measured IMPROVE species (controllable/uncontrollable and natural/anthropogenic) 

a. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – sulfate 

3
b. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – nitrate 

4
c. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – organic carbon 

5
d. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – elemental carbon 

6
e. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – fine soil 

7
f. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – coarse material 

8
g. What are the emissions in the top 4 to 6 source areas for each species? 

9
10
11
h. How much visibility change is predicted in regional modeling and 2018 visibility projections based on on-the-

summarized next (see [file posted on WRAP website] for detailed description of emissions inputs to modeling 

• Smoke Management Programs accounted for using Emissions Reduction Techniques applied to 2000-04 aver

• New permits and state/EPA consent agreements since 2002 reviewed with each state 

• Ozone and PM2.5 SIPs (California) • State Oil and Gas Emissions control programs • Mobile sources 

• Heavy Duty Diesel (2007) Engine Standard • Tier 2 Tailpipe • Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle Rule • Nonroad Diesel Rule 

• Combustion Turbine and Industrial Boiler/Process Heater/RICE MACT • VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT Standards • Known BART (CO, UT, ND, OR [Boardman] – to date) • Presumptive SO2 BART for rest of WRAP region 

12
13
14
3) What are the emissions sources in Colorado, potentially affecting the Mesa Verde National Park Class I area? 

15
16
17