Scientific information and the

Tongass Land Management Plan:

Key Findings From the Scientific

Literature, Species Assessments,

Resource Analyses, Workshops,

and Risk Assessment Panels

Douglas N. Swanston, Charles G. Shaw III, Winston P.

Smith, Kent R. Julin, Guy A. Cellier, and Fred H. Everest

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Forest Service

Pacific Northwest

Research Station

General Technical

Report

PNW-GTR-386

November 1996
Authors DOUGLAS N. SWANSTON is a research geologist and coleader of the Tongass

Land Management Planning Team, CHARLES G. SHAW III is a research plant

pathologist and science manager of the Tongass Land Management Planning Team,

WINSTON P. SMITH is a research wildlife biologist, KENT R. JULIN is a research

ecologist, GUY A. CELLIER was a research geographer, and FRED H. EVEREST is

a research fisheries biologist and Research Policy Coordinator for the Tongass Land

Management Planning Team, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific

Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 2770 Sherwood Lane,

Suite 2A, Juneau, AK 99801-8545.
Conservation and Resource

Assessments for the Tongass Land

Management Plan Revision

Charles G. Shaw III, Technical Coordinator

Scientific Information and the Tongass Land

Management Plan:

Key Findings Derived From the Scientific

Literature, Species Assessments, Resource

Analyses, Workshops, and Risk Assessment

Panels

Douglas N. Swanston

Charles G. Shaw III

Winston P. Smith

Kent R. Julin

Guy A. Cellier

Fred H. Everest

Published by:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Forest Service

Pacific Northwest Research Station

Portland, Oregon

General Technical Report PNW-GTR-386

November 1996
Abstract Swanston, Douglas, N.; Shaw, Charles G., III; Smith, Winston P.; Julin, Kent R.;

Cellier, Guy A.; Everest, Fred H. 1996. Scientific information and the Tongass

land management plan: key findings derived from the scientific literature, species assessments, resource analyses, workshops, and risk assessment panels.

Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-386. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture,

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 30 p. (Shaw, Charles G., III,

tech. coord.; Conservation and resource assessments for the Tongass land

management plan revision).

This document highlights key items of information obtained from the published literature and from specific assessments, workshops, resource analyses, and various risk

assessment panels conducted as part of the Tongass land management planning process. None of this information dictates any particular decision; however, it is important

to consider during decisionmaking or when the consequences of any particular

decision are evaluated.

Keywords: Risk assessment panels, Delphi, resource analyses, science policy,

Tongass National Forest, Alaska.
Introduction In late summer 1994, a new approach to forest planning was initiated for the Tongass

National Forest in southeast Alaska, with senior research scientists from the Pacific

Northwest Research Station (PNW) incorporated directly into the planning team. This

change from the traditional makeup of a planning team was intended to bring objective, independent thinking into the planning process and to maximize development

and application of the most up-to-date science in the plan. Together, these objectives

were designed to increase the likelihood that a scientifically credible, legally defensible, and resource sustainable Forest plan could be developed in a timely manner.

Primary responsibilities of the scientists on the planning team were to (a) gather and

develop currently available data and information on critical issues addressed in the

plan, (b) assess the scientific rigor of this information, (c) analyze the information in

the context of Tongass National Forest needs, (d) develop estimates of risks to resources that might result from various proposed management activities, (e) review

various assumptions and strategies currently used in the Forest plan, and (f) present

the information to the full team as an aid in formulating alternatives and developing

the effects analysis. An important additional responsibility has been the documentation

and publication of pertinent data, analyses, and procedures developed by various

components of the team.

This document annotates key items of information viewed as important to the Tongass

Land Management Planning (TLMP) process. The information has been assembled

by the TLMP Interdisciplinary Team, including the PNW scientists and the Tongass

National Forest staff assigned to the team.

Information is highlighted from the literature and from specific assessments, workshops, resource analyses, and the various risk assessment panels that were components of this TLMP process. None of this information dictates a decision; however,

it is important to consider during decisionmaking or when the consequences of any

particular decision are evaluated. Only those items in which the authors have considerable confidence have been included.

Information

Sources

Supporting Key

Findings

Key findings were developed from four primary sources: (1) assessment and analysis

of current scientific information, (2) critical review and analysis of items currently used

in the Forest plan, (3) synthesis of current and new information into scientifically

sound strategies for formulation of alternatives, and (4) estimations of risk for various

issues and resources through implementation of different management alternatives.

Conservation assessments for the Alexander Archipelago wolf (36),1 Queen Charlotte

goshawk (28), marbled murrelet (13), and karst and caves (5) are currently being

prepared for publication as PNW General Technical Reports.

The results of resource analyses addressing slope stability, timber volume estimation,

forested wetlands, the distribution of remaining blocks of old-growth forest, wildlife

viability, wind disturbance, young-growth yield projections, alternatives to clearcutting,

and timber price and demand projections, will be published in a combined document

as a separate General Technical Report (41). A detailed explanation of the panel

process and results also will appear in a separate PNW document (42).

1 Literature is referred to by number; see “References.”

1
The information developed and used in these assessments and resource analyses

has received extensive internal review by research scientists and resource specialists

in the USDA Forest Service and cooperating agencies, including the U.S. Fish and

Wildlife Service, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the National Marine

Fisheries Service, and the State of Alaska. In addition, the assessments have

undergone independent, blind peer review.

These findings, combined with those in the viable populations committee report (44),

a peer review by the Pacific Northwest Research Station of the viable populations

committee report (30), and the Anadromous Fish Habitat Assessment (3) represent

the most comprehensive scientific evaluation of these resources to date for the

Tongass National Forest.

Sources of Information Science assessments—Assessments of the current and most applicable scientific

information involved national and international literature searches; consultation with

recognized experts in private industry, in the Federal government, and at universities;

and application of professional knowledge and experience. Analysis of assessment

results provided an improved database and a measure of quantity, quality, and scientific significance of available data and theory for addressing the focal issues in this

revision of the Forest plan.

Resource analyses—A review and analysis of data, information, and assumptions

previously used in the TLMP process identified important information gaps, shortcomings of model assumptions, and areas where data analyses and theory needed

to be revised to reflect current levels of knowledge.

Workshops—Workshops provided a forum where results of science assessments

and resource analyses were synthesized into scientifically sound strategies for development of viable alternatives to manage the Tongass National Forest.

Risk assessment panels—A modified “Delphi” approach (31) using panels of experts

was employed to estimate the level of risk to wildlife resources and socioeconomic

conditions from implementing various management alternatives. Panelists were given

a thorough briefing on the purpose of the panels, the rating system to be used, species distribution, habitat issues specific to the Tongass National Forest (e.g., island

geography, land ownership patterns, past cutting practices), and an overview of the

draft alternatives including their design components and pertinent standards and

guidelines. Specific questions were answered by local resource specialists, but no

direct interaction among evaluators through discussion was allowed initially. For the

fish and wildlife panels, each panel member was asked to individually assign, without

consultation, a level of risk or “likelihood” (as defined by specific outcomes) to the

continued persistence of the species’ population, well-distributed across its historic

range within the Tongass National Forest, for each alternative implemented over

100 years.

2
Following the independent evaluations, a discussion occurred and was recorded to

clarify why particular assignments of likelihood were given, the reasons for any differing interpretations of available knowledge, what knowledge gaps existed, and how

this lack of information influenced likelihood scores. Each alternative was evaluated

independently, and no attempt was made to compare alternatives; evaluators were

asked, however, to indicate specific components of alternatives that could be modified

to improve their rating. Results of the discussions were used to clarify reasons for

likelihood scores, what particular changes in an alternative might increase an assignment of likelihood scores, and where major levels of concern exist. Panel results are

summarized in the appendix; further explanation is provided by Smith and Shaw (42).

Various Delphi methods have been used previously in natural resource management

to evaluate habitat quality or develop habitat suitability indices (31). Both types of

applications require assigning cardinal values to likelihood scores and then analyzing

these cardinal values to interpret results. The Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Team (FEMAT) in the Pacific Northwest (18) also used assigned scores in a

cardinal fashion to assess risk to viability. The results for the Tongass rely heavily on

empirical components supportable by pertinent data from within and outside southeast

Alaska and on extensive local knowledge and experience. The approach is credible

within the scientific community.

Key Findings From

Science

Assessments,

Workshops and

Resource

Analyses

The science assessments and resource analyses assembled by the TLMP team

and their cooperators have consolidated the available information on the issues

emphasized in the revised supplement to the draft environmental impact statement

(49). The following short statements highlight key findings from each resource by

document.

Results Science assessments—

1. Assessment of karst and cave resources:

• The Tongass National Forest contains the largest concentration of solution

caves known in the State of Alaska (2, 4, 6).

• The Tongass National Forest contains world-class karst terrain features,

particularly epikarst or surface karst (2, 5, 6).

• Karst terrain supports a highly productive terrestrial ecosystem coupled with

well-developed subsurface drainage important to aquatic communities (5, 6).

• Some of the most highly evolved karst terrain, the most fragile and sensitive to

management disturbance, is concentrated in the alpine and subalpine zones and

on slopes greater than 70 percent; these areas are identified as such in the

TLMP data base (5, 6; TLMP geographic data base).

• The karst landscape has developed from the sea to the top of some of the

highest peaks in the Alexander Archipelago. Of the karst lands found at lower

elevations, about 30 to 50 percent in the Ketchikan Area and 10 to 20 percent in

the Chatham and Stikine Areas are believed to be highly sensitivity to human

disturbances (5; TLMP geographic database).

• Protocols for assessing levels of risk from timber harvesting and road construction to karst landscape, associated resources, and significant caves at lower

elevations are part of the assessment and are available for use at the Administrative Area (Chatham, Ketchikan, and Stikine) and project level (5, 6).

3
2. Conservation assessment for the northern goshawk:

• In November 1991, the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) was designated as a category 2 species in southeast Alaska by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, thereby indicating a heightened concern for its long-term viability.

The Fish and Wildlife Service concluded that past logging activity in southeast

Alaska has adversely affected goshawk habitat (7).

• In response to a petition, the Fish and Wildlife Service did not list the goshawk

as a threatened or endangered species, in part because of the commitment by

the USDA Forest Service to address the issue in the TLMP process. This decision was challenged in court and the judge recently returned the petition to the

Fish and Wildlife Service for reconsideration (7, 28).

• Productive old-growth forest is an important and selected habitat component of

goshawk use patterns (1, 11, 12, 27, 28).

• All habitat types other than productive old growth (e.g., alpine, subalpine,

peatland, clearcuts, etc.) are used less than would be predicted by their

availability (1, 11, 12, 27, 28; unpublished field data on file with Alaska

Department of Fish and Game).

• The beach fringe is preferentially used by goshawks, particularly females (1, 11,

12, 27, 28; unpublished field data on file with Alaska Department of Fish and

Game).

• Riparian buffer areas are preferentially used by goshawks (28).

• Goshawk habitat capability has declined in southeast Alaska over the last

4 decades following the predominantly clearcut timber harvesting of 1 million or

more acres (400 000 or more ha) of productive old growth on private, State, and

Federal lands (1, 11, 12, 28).

• Single-tree, small-group selection or other harvest methods that maintain oldgrowth character, rather than clearcutting, may provide stand structure conducive to maintaining goshawk habitat (16, 28, 50).

• A combination of reserve-based and dynamic landscape approaches increases

the likelihood of sustaining well-distributed, viable populations of goshawks in

southeast Alaska. This approach involves establishment of habitat reserves and

management of the intervening forest lands through single-tree, small-group

selection or other harvest methods that maintain old-growth character coupled

with an extended rotation (≥300 years) (16, 28, 50).

• In comparison to shorter periods, a 300-year rotation may better allow the harvested forest to develop the type of structure well suited to goshawk use (16,

28, 50).

4
3. Conservation assessment for the Alexander Archipelago wolf:

• Wolf (Canis lupus ligoni) densities are generally lower on the mainland and

higher on islands in the southern half of the Tongass National Forest (35, 36).

• Wolves are absent from Admiralty, Baranof, and Chichagof Islands (36).

• Continued viability of wolves is an issue on Prince of Wales and Kosciusko

Islands, where past timber harvest has reduced the capability of the habitat to

support deer and also resulted in high road densities (i.e., > 0.9 mile per square

mile [0.6 kilometer per square kilometer]) (35, 36).

• Mortality rates of radio-collared wolves averaged 50 percent annually between

1993 and 1995 on Prince of Wales Island, in large part the result of legal and

illegal hunting and trapping (35, 36).

• Trapping and hunting harvest rates correlate positively with road density on

Prince of Wales Island (35, 36). Long-term wolf conservation would be enhanced by maintaining virtually unroaded core areas of habitat—each large

enough to encompass the primary activities of one pack, managing wolf harvest within sustainable limits through regulations, and providing long-term deer

habitat capability to support an abundant and stable deer population (35, 36).

4. Conservation assessment for the marbled murrelet:

• Marbled murrelets (Brachyrampus marmoratus) are numerous and widespread

throughout the coastal waters of southeast Alaska (13, 38).

• Although population trends for marbled murrelets in southeast Alaska are not

well documented, there has been an estimated 50-percent decline over the last

20 years State-wide (37, 38, 39, 43).

• A similar estimated 60-percent decline is reported for Clayoquot Sound, British

Columbia, during a 10-year period (8).

• Habitat requirements for nesting are poorly understood, but data from forested

areas elsewhere within the range of the marbled murrelet indicate that highvolume stands of old-growth coniferous forests near the coast are important

nesting habitat. In southeast Alaska, six nests have been located to date; one

on rock talus, one on overturned tree roots, and four in trees. All nests were at

relatively low elevation, relatively close to salt water, and within moderate to high

volume old-growth forest (8, 13, 43).

• Single-tree, small-group selection, or other harvest methods that maintain characteristics of old-growth forest structure, rather than clearcutting, may maintain

the types of stand structures within harvested areas that will support nesting

murrelets (13, 50).

• Long timber harvest rotations (>200 years) also may sustain murrelet nesting

habitat (13, 50).

• Implementing a reserve-based strategy, particularly in those biogeographic

provinces where past timber harvest has been concentrated and is projected to

continue, should enhance the likelihood of maintaining well-distributed marbled

murrelet habitat (13, 50).

5
5. Assessment of wind disturbance as a fundamental ecosystem process:

• Windthrow is the predominant natural disturbance process in the forests of southeast Alaska (22, 32, 33, 34).

• Biodiversity and retention of old-growth forest characteristics are linked to historic

disturbance conditions (22, 34).

• Forests in southeast Alaska span a gradient from old-growth conditions dominated by small-scale gap dynamics to single-cohort or multicohort conditions

driven by periodic, large-scale disturbances (22, 32, 33, 34).

• When large-scale blowdowns occur, a portion of the forest stand usually survives

and provides a natural legacy of (a) large-tree habitat for wildlife; (b) seed

sources; and (c) structural diversity (22, 32, 33, 34).

• The size, frequency, and configuration of past clearcut timber harvesting,

typically done in blocks of 20 acres (8 ha) or more on a 100-year harvest rotation, contrasts sharply with the natural disturbance regime, may reduce the

likelihood of conserving fish and wildlife habitats and populations, and may decrease the occurrence and distribution of old-growth ecosystems and their component parts and processes (32, 34).

• Natural disturbance regimes may be emulated through harvesting by increasing

rotation lengths, decreasing patch sizes, increasing shape complexities, and

using single-tree, small-group selection or other harvest methods that maintain

characteristics of old-growth forest structure (15, 32, 34).

6. Wildlife viability synthesis workshop:

• The habitat requirements of an array of birds and various terrestrial mammals,

notably goshawks (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus), wolves (Canis lupus ligoni),

murrelets (Brachyrampus marmoratus), marten (Martes americana), brown bears

(Ursus arctos), and several small mammals, the quality of fisheries habitat, and

the distribution and condition of old-growth ecosystems are primary factors in

defining Forest-wide wildlife viability (16, 17, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 29, 50).

• Management practices and land allocations useful in developing Forest-wide

approaches to maintain viable wildlife populations across the Forest include:

a. Existing retentions (wilderness, research natural areas, etc.).

b. Riparian habitat protection.

c. Silvicultural systems that emulate natural disturbances, such as small-scale,

even-aged or uneven-aged long rotations rather than large-scale, short-rotation

clearcutting.

d. Old-growth reserves appropriately spaced and stratified across the Forest (e.g.,

habitat conservation areas as proposed by the Interagency Viable Populations

Committee [44]).

e. Retention of current vegetation in the beach and estuary fringe.

f. Species-specific standards and guides (50).

6
7. Analysis of slope stability and mass movement hazards:

• Landslides are a dominant natural process of hillslope erosion and sediment

delivery to stream systems in the Tongass National Forest (45, 46).

• This erosion process is a primary source of gravels and an important source of

large woody debris necessary for fish habitat (3, 17, 45).

• Accelerated landslide activity can reduce both forest site productivity and fish

habitat capability by removing soil horizons and introducing excessive sediment

into salmon streams (45, 46).

• Published research documents a threefold increase in the frequency of landslides

(debris avalanche and debris flow) >135 cubic yards (100 m3) in volume from

clearcut areas versus uncut areas in southeast Alaska. These clearcut landslides

are smaller in volume, travel shorter distances, and tend to dissipate energy and

deposit in the lower reaches of class II and class III streams before reaching

class I streams, although suspended sediment often is transported into class I

streams (46).

• Gradient is a key variable in slope stability (40, 45, 46).

• Forested lands in southeast Alaska with gradients steeper than 36 degrees (72

percent) are naturally unstable and subject to accelerated landslide activity when

disturbed by either natural or management-related events (40, 45).

8. Analysis of growth and yield projections:

• Growth and yield model projections for young, even-aged stands give results

consistent with data in published yield tables; however, empirical data are limited

(21).

• For a specific CMAI (cumulative mean annual incriment), variations in volume per

acre of young growth has minimal influence on calculations of the available sale

quantity (ASQ) of timber when calculations are made over 100 years or more

(21).

• The young-growth model and inventory data do not provide reliable projections

of yields from the partial cutting of old growth through many cycles (21).

• Changes in the estimated age at which young-growth stands reach 95 percent

culmination of mean annual increment can markedly affect ASQ calculations

(21).

• An obstacle to accurate growth projections in existing old growth is the lack of

long-term yield estimates for stands of old-growth Sitka spruce (Picea stichensis

(Bong.) Carr.) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) (21).

9. Timber “falldown” during plan implementation—an analysis:

• “Hard” falldown results when unmapped features, such as high-hazard soils and

streams requiring buffers, are not identified at the Forest planning level but are

found during field inspection for project planning and implementation (20).

• “Soft” falldown results from economic considerations; it also results from project

level emphasis on “other” resource issues, on logging infeasibilities, or from

addressing data errors (20).

7
• A primary cause of soft falldown is a lack of knowledge about site conditions

until they are clarified during field implementation of a project (20).

• Even with the current attempts to address falldown issues, some uncertainty

(e.g., budgets, actual implementation of standards and guidelines, appeals)

exists with ASQ estimates (20).

Risk assessment panels and workshops—

Following are salient points derived from the discussions and ratings of the various

risk assessment panels. These panels were used as an integral component of the

effects analysis for the draft alternatives evaluated in the Revised Supplement to the

Draft Environmental Impact Statement (49). The purpose of conducting these panels

was to provide decisionmakers and the public with information on the relative risk

that implementation of each alternative would pose to the continuing persistence

throughout the landscape of the species or resource in question. A more detailed

explanation of the panel process is given by Smith and Shaw (42).

Risk is reported in terms of the likelihood that populations will remain well distributed

across the planning area. The reporting of likelihood levels is for reference only. It is

not an endorsement of this or any other level as an appropriate measure of risk. In

the appendix, a summary of mean scores adapted from Smith and Shaw (42) is presented for each species by alternative. The range of scores for each species also is

included to reflect dispersion of likelihood points (42).

General findings of the fish habitat and wildlife viability panels (14, 17, 23, 24,

25, 26, 27, 29, 42)—

• The wildlife and old-growth panel results are generally consistent with the findings

of the Alaska Region Viable Populations Committee report (44), the PNW peer

review of the Viable Populations Committee report (30) and the wildlife assessments (13, 28, 36). Along with the Anadromous Fish Habitat Assessment (3), these

documents represent the best available information on fish and wildlife habitat

needs in southeast Alaska.

• The panel results indicate differential effects of alternatives on individual species

and resources as well as the likelihood that several alternatives will have

detrimental effects after 100 years of implementation.

• Results of all viability and fish panels indicate an inverse relation between planned

acres (hectares) of timber to be cut and miles (kilometers) of road to be

constructed, and the likelihood that well-distributed habitat or populations will be

maintained.

• Using the mean of the scores assigned by panelists to outcomes I and II combined (see appendix for outcome descriptions) from the five individual wildlife

species panels, only alternatives 1, 4, and 5 have a 55-percent or greater

likelihood of maintaining well-distributed populations of all five species across the

planning area in 100 years. Alternatives 1 and 5 have a 65-percent or greater

likelihood of meeting this outcome. At a 75-percent likelihood, only alternative

1 meets this outcome. For the “other mammals” panel, none of the alternatives has

a 55-percent or greater likelihood of maintaining well-distributed populations. These

likelihood levels are used only for reference and are not an endorsement of any

level as an appropriate measure of risk.

8
• Results from the fish and riparian panel (17) agreed with results in the Anadromous

Fish Habitat Assessment (3).

• Panel results support considering past cumulative management activities on all

land ownerships in planning for future management of the Tongass National Forest to ensure well-distributed populations of wildlife across the entire Alexander

Archipelago.

• Panel results indicate that alternatives 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 have a higher likelihood of

maintaining habitat to support well-distributed, viable wildlife populations than do

alternatives 2, 7, 8, and 9.

• Overall results from the panels and assessments suggest that alternatives 2, 7,

and 9 are unlikely to maintain suitable, well-distributed habitats to ensure wildlife

viability Forest-wide for the long term.

Specific findings of individual risk assessment panels—

1. The brown bear panel identified the following key points (25):

• An undisturbed buffer (no harvest, no roads) along salmon-bearing streams

where bears concentrate and feed helps to maintain brown bear habitat. Such

buffers provide some isolation of bear feeding sites from humans and other

bears. The panel identified 500 feet (152 m) along each side of salmon bearingstreams as an appropriate buffer width.

• The presence of roads affects bears by (a) increasing sediment delivery to

salmon streams, which can reduce salmon productivity and thus feeding opportunities for bears; and (b) increasing human access to bear habitat, which can

increase hunting pressure, illegal kills, and actions by people to defend life and

property.

• From the mean of the scores assigned by panelists to outcomes I and II combined (see appendix for outcome descriptions), alternatives 1, 3, 4, and 5 have

a 55-percent or greater likelihood of maintaining a well-distributed population of

brown bears across their historic range in the Tongass National Forest in 100

years. Alternatives 1 and 5 meet the above conditions at a 65-percent or greater

likelihood, and only alternative 1 does so at a 75-percent or greater likelihood.

2. The socieoeconomic panel identified the following key points (10):

• Some panelists indicated that reduced timber harvest levels could result in

serious effects on communities; other panelists indicated that there could be

short-term job losses, but reduced timber harvesting would ultimately lead to

long-term economic diversity.

• Reduced timber harvest could result in short-term job losses and economic

hardship in a number of communities (e.g., Ketchikan, Wrangell, Thorne Bay,

Craig, and other Prince of Wales Island communities).

• Land use designations that allow increased timber harvest around communities

could change the type of recreation in those areas, in that primitive and semiprimitive recreation opportunities could be reduced while road-related activities

(e.g., camping with recreational vehicles and driving for pleasure) could increase.

The demand for semiprimitive, motorized (e.g., airplane or boat accessible)

opportunities is projected to exceed supply by 2000. For primitive opportunities,

supply exceeds demand into the foreseeable future.

9
• Panelists indicated a need to query individual communities to obtain their

judgments on the factors evaluated by the panel.

3. The fish and riparian panel identified the following key points (17):

• Increased levels of timber harvest generally result in increased risk of degradation to fish habitat.

• The greatest risk of degradation to fish habitat is caused by the presence of

roads, because they serve as a source of sediment input to streams.

• Future timber harvest and road construction likely will occur on steeper slopes

than many past harvests, which could increase the amount of sediment reaching

streams.

• Higher levels of riparian protection (options 1 and 2) provide less risk to fish

habitat capability than does option 3. See chapter 3 in reference (49) for descriptions of the riparian options.

• Although the lower level of riparian protection (option 3) increases the risk to fish

resources in comparison with options 1 or 2, it does offer less risk than current

practices (47).

• Some watersheds likely will not have returned to prelogging condition in 100

years, primarily because of impacts resulting from past timber harvesting and

road construction in riparian zones.

• Universal and consistent application of best management practices (48) reduces the risk of fish habitat degradation. At present, however, best management practices are merely guidelines and thus may not be fully applied and

implemented.

• Longer rotations (≥200 years) with correspondingly reduced ASQ, reduce risks

to degradation of fish habitat by reducing the overall rate of sediment input.

• In all alternatives except alternative 1, the miles of road to be constructed and

total acres of timber to be harvested during the next 100 years can be expected

to degrade channel conditions if fully implemented.

• During the next 100 years, in all alternatives, watersheds previously subjected to

timber harvest in riparian areas will not have recovered from depletion of large

woody debris. Planned additional harvest in these watersheds would further

delay recovery in all alternatives except alternative 1.

• From the mean of the scores assigned by panelists to outcomes I and II combined (see appendix for outcome descriptions), alternatives 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6

have a 55-percent or greater likelihood of maintaining adequately distributed,

productive fish habitat in the Tongass National Forest and causing minor or no

additional degradation of habitat, with currently degraded habitats recovered or

moving towards recovery in 100 years. Alternatives 1, 3, 4, and 5 meet the

above conditions at 65-percent or greater likelihood. Alternatives 1, 3, 4, and 5

also meet these conditions at a 75-percent or greater likelihood.

10
4. The “other mammals” panel identified the following key points (29):

• The archipelago nature of southeast Alaska, coupled with the often dramatic

topographic relief, contributes to isolation of the “other mammal” populations by

dissecting habitats and restricting migration of individuals.

• The isolation of small mammal populations and lack of connectivity among similar

habitats increases the risk that timber harvest will markedly reduce or further

fragment large portions of existing habitats and also decreases the likelihood of

maintaining the long-term viability of local populations after extensive clearcut

timber harvesting.

• Geographically, the level of risk to viability from any management activity

increases as the size of individual islands decreases.

• Information on many small mammals is limited. Where more information is

available (e.g., the northern flying squirrel [Glaucomys sabrinus griseifrons]),

evidence indicates that past forest management has fragmented habitat such

that some populations probably became isolated because of their limited

dispersal range.

• Endemic “other mammals” were the most sensitive of all wildlife species paneled

to future landscape disturbances, such as that resulting from clearcut timber

harvesting. Such disturbances affect the likelihood of maintaining well-distributed

populations of endemic “other mammals” across the planning area.

• Information to date indicates that past management has adversely affected some

populations of endemic “other mammals” (e.g., populations of the northern flying

squirrel on Prince of Wales Island).

• From the mean of the scores assigned by panelists to outcomes I and II combined (see appendix for outcome descriptions), none of the alternatives exceeds

a 55-percent or greater likelihood of maintaining a well-distributed population of

either group (widely distributed and endemic) of “other mammals” across their

historic range in the Tongass National Forest in 100 years.

5. The deer panel identified the following key points (14):

• The habitat capability model for Sitka black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus

sitkensis) was revised by using the new timber volume strata and physiographic

features.

• Discussion among panelists supported past modeling efforts and approaches

and reinforced the importance of maintaining habitat capability by protecting

critical deer winter range.

• Small-scale, uneven-aged silvicultural prescriptions, or other harvest methods

consistent with natural disturbance regimes, are most likely to be compatible

with the conservation of deer habitat.

11
6. The old-growth ecosystems panel identified the following key points (15):

• An inventory of old-growth habitat within the Tongass National Forest identified

the size and distribution of remaining blocks, potentially allowing for more

accurate location of representitive habitat reserves.

• Past harvest of old growth has been spatially clumped with concentrated

activity on islands such as Prince of Wales, Kosciusko, Zarembo, and northeast Chichagof.

• Reserves of any kind by themselves do not appear to be adequate to maintain

interconnected, functionally interrelated old-growth ecosystems.

• Past harvest of productive old growth in the Tongass National Forest has been

concentrated in higher volume stands at lower elevations. Between 1952 and

1995, an average of more than 40,000 board feet per acre (688 m3

/ha) was

harvested from about 414,000 acres (165 000 ha). About 83 percent of this

harvested acreage is below 800 feet (244 m) in elevation; 60 percent of it is

below 500 feet (152 m).

• About 16 percent of the high-volume old growth in the Tongass National Forest has already been harvested. If the draft preferred alternative were to be

implemented for 100 years, then about 28 percent of the high-volume old growth

would be harvested.

• Leaving legacy trees in harvest units helps to maintain important parts of oldgrowth ecosystems such as lichens, fungi, and other taxa. Two-aged management, as proposed in alternatives 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8, will retain such legacy trees.

• Wide beach fringes and uncut riparian buffers enhance connectivity among

otherwise isolated old-growth blocks by providing elevational and horizontal

corridors.

• Wide beach fringes also provide improved habitat for bald eagles (Haliaeetus

leucocephalus) and goshawks owing to increased screening from management

disturbance and increased prey diversity and abundance (19, 27).

• Recent research findings (19) indicate that buffer zones around bald eagle nests

should be at least 984 feet (300 m), a distance that is most consistent with the

extended (1000-foot [305-m]) beach fringe specified in alternatives 1, 2, 4, 5, 6,

and 8.

• Alternatives 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 conserve more old-growth ecosystem elements then

do alternatives 2, 7, 8, and 9.

• From the mean of the scores assigned by panelists to outcomes I and II combined (see appendix for outcome descriptions), alternatives 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 have

a 55-percent or greater likelihood of achieving an overall ecosystem condition in

100 years that is hypothesized to fall within the typical range of conditions that

have occurred over previous centuries. Alternatives 1, 4, 5, and 6 meet the

above conditions at a 65-percent or greater likelihood, whereas only alternatives

1, 4, and 5 do so at a 75-percent or greater likelihood.

12
7. The goshawk panel identified the following key points (27):

• Even in the reserve approach, as proposed in alternatives 3 and 8, the large

reserves are likely too small to support well-distributed populations of goshawks

across the planning area.

• Extended rotations (>200 years) offer an approach to maintaining well-distributed

goshawk populations.

• The extended rotation matrix approach in alternative 4, or the matrix-reserve

approach in alternative 5, increases the likelihood of maintaining the species

well-distributed across the planning area.

• Management of the intervening forest matrix between reserves under a 100-year

harvest rotation is less likely to sustain goshawks than management under longer

rotations (200 or 300 years).

• Goshawks likely can persist in a managed, dynamic landscape with a variety of

conifer age classes. This management scenario likely can be obtained under a

300-year rotation.

• Extended riparian and beach buffers maintain important habitat components

owing to prey diversity and abundance available in these habitats.

• Goshawk panel findings are generally consistent with findings in the goshawk

conservation assessment (28).

• From the mean of the scores assigned by panelists to outcomes I and II combined (see appendix for outcome descriptions), alternatives 1, 4, and 5 have a

55-percent or greater likelihood of maintaining a well-distributed population of

goshawks across their historic range on the Tongass National Forest in 100

years. Alternatives 1, 4, and 5 also meet the above conditions at a 65-percent

or greater likelihood, and only alternative 1 does so at a 75-percent or greater

likelihood.

8. The marten panel identified the following key points (24):

• Three subspecies of marten are native to southeast Alaska. Marten were released on several islands, including Baranof, Chichagof, and Prince of Wales;

whether natural populations also occurred on these islands remains unclear.

• Marten are considered to be a desirable, fur-bearing species by the Alaska

Department of Fish and Game.

• An extended rotation matrix approach (alternative 4) or a matrix-reserve approach (alternative 5) increases the likelihood of marten maintaining welldistributed populations across the planning area.

• The full reserve approach as proposed in alternatives 3 and 8 may not fully

support species persistence without an extended rotation in the matrix lands,

because the sizes of individual reserves are likely too small to independently

support viable populations.

13
• A landscape approach that adopts an entire set of habitat reserves, connected

by elevational and horizontal corridors, and uses a 200-year or longer rotation in

the matrix provides a high likelihood of maintaining persistent and well-distributed

marten populations.

• From the mean of the scores assigned by panelists to outcomes I and II combined (see appendix for outcome descriptions), alternatives 1, 4, and 5 have a

55-percent or greater likelihood of maintaining a well-distributed population of

marten across their historic range on the Tongass National Forest in 100 years.

Alternatives 1 and 5 also meet the above conditions at a 65-percent or greater

likelihood, and only alternative 1 does so at a 75-percent or greater likelihood.

9. The marbled murrelet panel identified the following key points (26):

• Although nesting and habitat data are scarce for marbled murrelets in southeast

Alaska, behavior and habitat needs seem to be similar to those observed in

coastal British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California.

• Without a watershed-based old-growth reserve system with a minimum of 1600

spatially explicit, contiguous acres (640 ha; the size of a small habitat reserve)

per watershed (value comparison unit), the likelihood of maintaining welldistributed breeding populations may be reduced.

• From the mean of the scores assigned by panelists to outcomes I and II combined (see appendix for outcome descriptions), alternatives 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8

have a 55-percent or greater likelihood of maintaining a well-distributed population of marbled murrelets across their historic range on the Tongass National

Forest in 100 years. Alternatives 1, 3, 4, and 5 meet the above conditions at a

65-percent or greater likelihood. Alternatives 1, 3, and 5 meet the above

conditions at a 75-percent or greater likelihood.

10. The Alexander Archipelago wolf panel identified the following key points (23):

• Maintaining deer habitat capability to support adequate numbers of deer is a

key factor in maintaining long-term wolf viability on islands in the Alexander

Archipelago.

• Limiting road access to wolf habitat reduces both legal and illegal hunting and

trapping, and controlling seasons and bag limits helps assure sustainability.

• From the mean of the scores assigned by panelists to outcomes I and II combined (see appendix for outcome descriptions), alternatives 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6

have a 55-percent or greater likelihood of maintaining a well-distributed population of wolves across their historic range in the Tongass National Forest in 100

years. Alternatives 1, 3, 4, and 5 meet the above conditions at a 65-percent or

greater likelihood. Alternatives 1, 3, and 5 meet the above conditions at a

75-percent or greater likelihood.

14
11. The subsistence working group identified the following key points (9):

• Adequate deer populations are a key element of subsistence lifestyles.

• Protecting important deer winter range sustains habitat for subsistence hunting.

• The presence of substantial old-growth blocks and reserves preserves deer

habitat and winter range.

• Alternatives 1, 3, 4, and 5 have a higher likelihood than other alternatives of

supporting a sustainable subsistence harvest of deer.

• A reserve close to a community has a higher likelihood of maintaining readily

accessible habitat of important subsistence species and availability of oldgrowth forest products such as moss, bark, spruce roots, and mushrooms,

than does timber harvest, even that with a long rotation.

• The highest levels of riparian protection (options 1 and 2) are important to subsistence users because these people have a high dependence on subsistence

use of fish.

• Maintenance of minimally disturbed beach and estuary fringes is important

for subsistence users because of the important habitat they offer to deer,

waterfowl, and bear as well as for salmon and shellfish in tidal areas. Berries

and bark also are collected in fringe areas.

• The crossing of fish streams by roads increases the likelihood of degradation

to streams with resulting reductions in fish production and availability to

subsistence users.

• Roads increase access for subsistence users.

Information Gaps The science assessments, resource analyses, workshops, and panels have identified

several important information gaps that need to be addressed to aid completion of

the next revision of the Tongass Forest Plan. The priority issues for which additional

quantitative information is needed include:

• Economic feasibility and effects on old-growth ecology of silvicultural alternatives to

clearcutting.

• Young-growth forest response on wetland soils.

• Influence of resource use on economic and social values at regional and

community levels in southeast Alaska.

• Response and productivity of young-growth forest stands.

• Product recovery from young-growth forest stands.

• Distribution, abundance, and taxonomic status of endemic small mammal

populations in southeast Alaska.

• Site quality indicators, not based on standing volume, to better represent the site

potential of old-growth forest stands.

• Culmination of cumulative mean annual increment for young-growth stands on

various sites under various management regimes and how best to use this

information in Forest plan modeling.

15
• Additional information on timber volume classes; currently this information is

being used in Forest plan modeling at a geographic scale two levels beyond its

recognized statistical validity.

• Effects of gaps (natural and human induced) in habitat within islands on the

distribution and survival of old-growth associated species.

• Role of high-gradient contained channels in routing of sediment and large woody

debris to downstream fish habitat.

• Effects of land management activities on geomorphic processes in high-gradient

channels.

• Fish habitat relations to salmonid populations in old-growth-dominated (unlogged)

watersheds and watersheds that have had various levels of timber harvest and

road development. Riparian management objectives should be a product of the

evaluation.

• Effects of various management actions on natural processes in karst terrain.

• Evaluation of road drainage structures within the Tongass National Forest,

primarily culverts and bridges, which currently are designed to withstand 25- and

50-year frequency flood events, respectively. Consequently, in all alternatives,

without substantial reconstruction and upgrading, nearly all culverts can be expected to fail during the next 100 years. Even though impacts of these failures

on the fisheries resource and water quality are not quantified, some habitat

degradation is anticipated.

• Further clarification of old-growth habitat needs and use of harvested lands by

the marbled murrelet.

• Further clarification of old-growth habitat needs and use of harvested lands by

the northern goshawk.

16
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18
(22) Harris, A.S. 1989. Wind in the forest of southeast Alaska and guide for reducing

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(24) Iverson, G.C. 1996. American marten viability assessment panel summary. On

file with: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Tongass Land Management Planning Office, 8465 Old Dairy Road, Juneau, AK 99801.

(25) Iverson, G.C. 1996. Brown bear viability assessment panel summary. On file

with: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Tongass Land Management Planning Office, 8465 Old Dairy Road, Juneau, AK 99801.

(26) Iverson, G.C. 1996. Marbled murrelet panel assessment meeting notes. On file

with: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Tongass Land Management Planning Office, 8465 Old Dairy Road, Juneau, AK 99801.

(27 Iverson, G.C. 1996. Northern goshawk viability assessment panel summary. On

file with: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Tongass Land Management Planning Office, 8465 Old Dairy Road, Juneau, AK 99801.

(28) Iverson, G.C.; Hayward, G.; Crocker-Bedford, D.C. [and others]. [In prep.].

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Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. (Shaw, Charles G., III,

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management plan revision).

(29) Julin, K.R. 1995. Other terrestrial mammals panel assessment summary. On file

with: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Tongass Land Management Planning Office, 8465 Old Dairy Road, Juneau, AK 99801.

(30) Kiester, A.R.; Eckhardt, C. 1994. Review of wildlife management and conservation biology on the Tongass National Forest: a synthesis with recommendations.

Corvallis, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest

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(31) Linstone, H.A.; Turoff, M., eds. 1975. The Delphi method: techniques and

applications. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. 620 p.

(32) Nowacki, G.J.; Kramer, M. [In prep.]. The natural disturbance regime of the

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the Tongass land management plan revision. Gen. Tech. Rep. Portland, OR:

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(33) Ott, R.A. 1995. Interpretation of wind and tree-fall patterns at the site and landscape levels in forests of southeast Alaska: importance, techniques, and application. Fairbanks, AK: University of Alaska, Fairbanks. 51 p. On file with: U.S.

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Tongass Land Management Planning

Office, 8465 Old Dairy Road, Juneau, AK 99801.

19
(34) Ott, R.A. 1995. Small-scale natural disturbance regimes in temperate rainforests

of southeast Alaska: description and management importance. Fairbanks, AK:

University of Alaska, Fairbanks. 72 p. On file with: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Tongass Land Management Planning Office, 8465 Old

Dairy Road, Juneau, AK 99801.

(35) Person, D.K.; Ingle, M.A. 1995. Ecology of the Alexander Archipelago wolf

and responses to habitat change. Juneau, AK: Alaska Department of Fish

and Game. 39 p. On file with: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,

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99801.

(36) Person, D.K.; Kirchoff, M.; Van Ballenberghe, V. [and others]. [In prep.].

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PNW-GTR-384. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,

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revision).

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(38) Piatt, J.F.; Naslund, N.L. 1995. Abundance, distribution, and population status

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G.L.; Raphael, M.G.; Piatt, J.F., eds. Ecology and conservation of the marbled

murrelet. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-152. Berkeley, CA. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment

Station: 3-22.

(40) Schroeder, W.L.; Swanston, D.N. 1987. Application of geotechnical data to

resource planning in southeast Alaska. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-198. Portland,

OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research

Station. 22 p.

(41) Shaw, Charles G., III; Julin, Kent R., tech. coords. [In prep.]. Conservation

and resource assessments for the Tongass land management plan revision.

Gen. Tech. Rep. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,

Pacific Northwest Research Station.

(42) Smith, W.P.; Shaw, C.G., III. [In prep.]. The risk assessment panel process. In:

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Research Station.

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(43) Stevens, N.G. 1995. Evaluation of Christmas bird count data for determining

trends in abundance of marbled murrelets in Alaska. Anchorage, AK: National

Biological Survey; report. 8 p. On file with: U.S. Department of Agriculture,

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(44) Suring, L.H.; Crocker-Bedford, D.C.; Flynn, R.W. [and others]. 1993. A

proposed strategy for maintaining well-distributed, viable populations of wildlife

associated with old-growth forests in southeast Alaska. U.S. Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service, Alaska Region; report of the interagency committee,

Tongass Land Management Planning Team. 278 p. On file with: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Tongass Land Management Planning Office,

8465 Old Dairy Road, Juneau, AK 99801.

(45) Swanston, D.N. [In prep.]. Overview of controlling stability characteristics of

steep terrain with discussion of needed standardization for mass movement

hazard indexing. In: Shaw, Charles G., III; Julin, Kent R., tech. coords. Conservation and resource assessments for the Tongass land management plan

revision. Gen. Tech. Rep. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest

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(46) Swanston, D.N.; Marion, D.A. 1991. Landslide response to timber harvest in

southeast Alaska. In: Shou-shan Fan; Yung-huang Kuo, eds. Proceedings of

the 5th Federal interagency sediment conference; 1991 March 18-21; Las

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[irregular pagination].

(47) U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 1991. Tongass land management plan revision: supplement to the draft environmental impact statement.

R10-MB-149. Juneau, AK: Alaska Region. [Irregular pagination].

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pagination].

(49) U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 1996. Tongass land management plan revision: revised supplement to the draft environmental impact statement. R10-MB-314A. Juneau, AK: Alaska Region. [Irregular pagination].

(50) Iverson, George C.; René, Bruce. [In prep.]. Conceptual approaches for maintaining well-distributed, viable wildlife populations: a resource assessment. In:

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21
Appendix This appendix includes individual risk assessment panel scores with means for each

alternative for selected old-growth-associated wildlife species, fisheries resources, and

the old-growth ecosystem. See Smith and Shaw (42) for further details.

Risk assessment panels were used as an integral component of the effects analysis

of the draft alternatives evaluated in the revised supplement to the draft environmental

impact statement (RS-DEIS) (49). The purpose of conducting these panels was to

provide decisionmakers and the public with further information on the relative risk that

implementation of each alternative would pose to the continuing persistance throughout the landscape of the species or resource in question.

A “likelihood” approach, similar to that used by the Forest Ecosystem Management

Assessment Team [FEMAT] (18), was used in assessing the level of risk. Scientists

with recognized expertise in the particular species or resource were organized into

panels, instructed on the issues and alternatives, and provided with the most up-todate scientific information available. Individual scientists on each panel were then

given 100 likelihood points to assign to each alternative when considering a set of

projected outcomes. Assignment of points was made independently without interaction

or consultation among panel members. The panel was then reconvened and the point

assignments of each panel member discussed and recorded. Allocation of all 100

points to a single outcome expressed complete certainty in that particular outcome.

Uncertainty was expressed by the spread of points across outcomes.

The wildlife panels assessed the likelihood that an alternative would maintain sufficient, well-distributed habitat to ensure continued persistence of a species population, well-distributed across its historic range in the Tongass National Forest. The

outcomes considered by the panel were:

1. Habitat is of sufficient quality, distribution, and abundance to allow species to maintain well-distributed breeding populations across the Tongass.

2. Habitat is of sufficient quality, distribution, and abundance to allow the species to

maintain well-distributed breeding populations across the Tongass—however, some

local populations are more ephemeral because of reduced population levels and

increased susceptibility to environmental extremes and events associated with reduced habitat abundance and distribution.

3. Habitat is of sufficient quality, distribution, and abundance to allow species to maintain some breeding populations but with significant gaps in the historic distribution

across the forest.

4. Habitat allows continued species existence only in refugia, with strong limitations

on interactions among local populations.

5. Habitat conditions result in species extirpation from Federal land.

22
The fisheries resource panels assessed the likelihood that an alternative would

maintain productive habitat for the range of anadromous and resident fish species in

the Tongass, including distribution of populations, levels of degradation of habitat,

and recovery of habitat from currently degrading conditions. One panel assessed the

likely effect of each alternative on habitat condition. A separate panel assessed the

likely effect of each alternative on channel condition, including maintenance of large

woody debris, pool depth, area, stream width-to-depth ratios, and streambed stability.

The outcomes considered by the panel assessing habitat condition were:

1. New management activities will not cause additional degradation of freshwater

habitat for the species, productive habitat will be well distributed across the Forest, or

the historic range of the species within the Forest, and habitats currently degraded

will recover or be moving toward recovery after 100 years.

2. New management activities will result in minor additional degradation of freshwater

habitat for the species, productive habitat will be adequately distributed across the

Tongass National Forest, or the historic range of the species within the Forest, and

most habitats currently degraded will recover or will be moving toward recovery after

100 years.

3. New management activities will result in moderate additional degradation of freshwater habitat for the species, distribution of productive habitat across the Tongass

National Forest, or the historic range of the species within the Forest, will contain

some gaps where the species will not occur or where populations will be severely

reduced, and many habitats currently degraded will neither recover nor be moving

toward recovery after 100 years.

4. New management activities will result in major additional degradation of freshwater

habitat for the species, distribution of productive habitat across the Tongass National

Forest, or the historic range of the species within the Forest, will contain large gaps

where the species will not occur or where populations will be severely reduced, and

most habitats currently degraded will neither recover nor be moving toward recovery

after 100 years.

5. New management activities will result in severe additional degradation of freshwater habitat for the species, the species will be extirpated or populations will be

decimated over much of its historic range in the Tongass National Forest, and

habitats currently degraded will neither recover nor be moving toward recovery

after 100 years.

The outcomes considered by the panel for assessing channel condition were:

1. Riparian objectives will be met throughout the Tongass National Forest, there will

be little or no additional degradation from existing conditions owing to new management activities, and areas currently not meeting riparian objectives will recover or be

moving toward recovery in 100 years.

23
2. Riparian objectives will be met throughout most of the Tongass National Forest,

there will be minor additional degradation from existing conditions due to new management activities, and most areas not currently meeting riparian objectives will recover or be moving toward recovery in 100 years.

3. Riparian objectives will be met across the Tongass National Forest but there will

be a substantial area where they are not met, there will be moderate additional degradation from existing conditions due to new management activities, and many areas

currently not meeting riparian objectives will neither recover nor be moving toward

recovery in 100 years.

4. Riparian objectives will be met across a small part of the Tongass National Forest

but they will not be met over the majority of the Forest, there will be major additional

degradation from existing conditions owing to new management activities, and most

areas not currently meeting riparian objectives will neither recover nor be moving

toward recovery in 100 years.

5. Riparian objectives will be met on a very small part of the Tongass National Forest, almost all areas will not meet riparian objectives, there will be severe additional

degradation from existing conditions owing to new management objectives, and areas

currently not meeting riparian objectives will neither recover nor be moving toward

recovery in 100 years.

The old-growth ecosystem panel assessed the likelihood that an alternative would

influence the overall ecosystem condition in the remaining old-growth blocks within

the Tongass National Forest by evaluating the abundance and ecological diversity

(the acreage and variety of plant communities and environments); ecosystem process,

structure, and function (the ecological actions that lead to the development and maintenance of ecosystems, and the values of the ecosystem for species and populations); and connectivity (the extent to which the landscape pattern of the ecosystem

provides for biological flows that sustain animal and plant populations).

The outcomes considered by the panel for abundance and diversity were:

1. Old growth is equal to or greater then the long-term average (100 years) and is

well distributed across environmental gradients, provinces, and community types.

2. Old growth is somewhat less than the long-term average in forest types of some

provinces; representation occurs in all major forest types but is well underrepresented

in some areas (may be within range of variability).

3. Old growth is below the long-term average in most forest types and examples of a

few old-growth types are eliminated.

4. Old growth is well below long-term averages in all provinces, and examples of

several old-growth types are eliminated in some provinces.

24
The outcomes considered by the panel for ecosystem process, structure, and

function were:

1. The full range of disturbance processes are represented; stand structure and

dynamics and landscape structure, dynamics, and age attributes occur across all

provinces.

2. A moderately wide range of disturbance processes are represented, old-growth

processes and functions dependent on large unaltered landscapes are limited, and

old-growth processes, structures, or functions dependent on a wide range of ages

are moderately limited.

3. Old-growth processes, structures, and functions are limited in many provinces;

many landscapes and stands are too small or too young to sustain old-growth processes, structures, and functions, or stand structure does not develop.

4. Old-growth processes, structures, or functions are extremely limited or absent in

some provinces.

The outcomes considered by the panel for connectivity were:

1. Connectivity is as strong as before large-scale timber harvest occurred.

2. Connectivity is strong, characterized by moderate distances between old-growth

areas, and the matrix contains high levels of old-growth elements and riparian

corridors.

3. Connectivity is moderate, characterized by moderately wide distances between old

growth and elements of old growth in the matrix (retention patches, riparian corridors,

etc.).

4. Connectivity is weak with wide distances and limited presence of connectivity

elements in matrix.

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Swanston, Douglas, N.; Shaw, Charles G., III; Smith, Winston P.; Julin, Kent

R.; Cellier, Guy A.; Everest, Fred H. 1996. Scientific information and the

Tongass land management plan: key findings derived from the scientific

literature, species assessments, resource analyses, workshops, and risk

assessment panels. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-386. Portland, OR: U.S.

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research

Station. 30 p. (Shaw, Charles G., III, tech. coord.; Conservation and resource

assessments for the Tongass land management plan revision).

This document highlights key items of information obtained from the published literature and from specific assessments, workshops, resource analyses, and various risk

assessment panels conducted as part of the Tongass land management planning process. None of this information dictates any particular decision; however, it is important

to consider during decisionmaking or when the consequences of any particular

decision are evaluated.

Keywords: Keywords: Risk assessment panels, Delphi, resource analyses, science

policy, Tongass National Forest, Alaska.

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Agriculture is dedicated to the principle of multiple

use management of the Nation’s forest resources for

sustained yields of wood, water, forage, wildlife, and

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of the National Forests and National Grasslands, it

strives—as directed by Congress—to provide

increasingly greater service to a growing Nation.

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