Lessons Learned from th

Photovoltaics Indust

Implications for Distribute

Trudy Forsyth and Carol To

National Renewable Energy Labor

Mike Nelson

Washington State University/Northwest S

Presented at the AWEA WINDPOWER Conference and Exhibition held in Pittsburgh

NREL/PR-500-40099
Disclaimer and Government License

This work has been authored by Midwest Research Institute (MRI) under Contract No. DE-AC36Department of Energy (the “DOE”). The United States Government (the “Government”) retains athe work for publication, acknowledges that the Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrepublish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for Government puNeither MRI, the DOE, the Government, nor any other agency thereof, nor any of their employeeor implied, or assumes any liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulnesproduct, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe any privately owned ri

specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or othimply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the Government or any agency thereof. authors and/or presenters expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of MRI, the agency thereof. 
PV Production 1995 -2005
From “Our Solar Power Future: The U.S. P

Industry Roadmap Through 2030 an
PV in American Mark

• More than 2000 solar installations (REP

– 36% Residential

• Mostly CA, CO, and AZ*• High BTC in NY, IL, HI, NC, CA, NJ, MD, PA, 

– 56% Non-residential (schools and governme– 8% Commercial

• Mostly CA, TX, HI, and IL*• High BTC in NY, MA, NC, CA, NJ, HI, MT, A

• Global nature of PV manufacturing

– Historical U.S. dominance gone forever – U.S. Wind holds the dominant part of world 

• PV dealer/distributors often deal in smal

synergy at distribution level

* - Commercial Solar Energy Market Potential Study ECON
How Has PV Grown Mark

Despite Relatively High 

• Grassroots advocacy to influence state an• Communication networks

– Early links to electric utility industry, State E

through IREC

– “NCPV Hotline”: link to industry, NGOs, go

• “Schools Going Solar” program• Strategies to work with, create other gove

– State Energy Offices– CSTRR 

• Consumer appeal of personal control of e

– Comparative ease of PV installation– On retail side of meter 
Energy Service Provider Value Set

Government Value Set

•Energy•Demand/Capacity•Distribution•Transmission•Generation•EnvironmentBuilding integration•Building material•Load management•Reliability•Economic developmentUncertainty/Risk•Fuel diversity risk•Electric price risk

Stakeholders Invest Wh

Sum of Values Exceeds Pric

Σ

Σ

{

{
PV and Wind Resource

PV and Wind Resource

Complementary Complementary 

– seasonall

seasonal

400350

300250

200150

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 

Hours of sunshine/

Average wind power/month

Data from SE Iowa

Hours of sunshine or average

wind power (Watts/m2)
DOE’s PV Initiativ

• Goal: Increased deployment of PV technolog

• Approach

– PV4U: electric utility integration issues– Million Solar Roofs: grassroots approach t

mitigation of market barriers to rooftop sol

• More than 930 partners nationwide at program 

– Solar America Initiative (proposed, 2006) 

• Two parts: R&D and “Technology Acceptance• Proposed 9-year duration• Focus: urban infrastructure• Goal: cost competitive with conventional grid e• Focused on commercial PV

• Opportunities for Small Wind

– Link with existing MSR partner network 

• Expand existing pilot work started with Northe• Develop wind version of NCPV Hotline
PV in Schools: 2.7 MW installed 

• Goals: Capitalize on multiple opportunities of school 

settings: (1) Education mission: educate students and, by extension, their parents; (2) Technology visibility (schools as community hub); (3) Energy security (schools as emergency shelters) 

• Approaches

– “Schools Going Solar” www.irecusa.org/schools/– New York’s School Power Naturally 

www.powernaturally.

org/Programs/SchoolPowerNatu

rally

– Florida’s SunSmart Schools Progam benefits

• Opportunity for Small Wind

– Comparative “sexiness” of small wind 

• “Watching PV is just as exciting as watching toast 

brown”

– Low cost using commercial micro-turbines
PV Zoning

• Goal: Reduce “hassle factor” of PV in• Approach

– PV in Seattle ruled “outright use”– Place articles about zoning issues in trade – Work with Homeowner’s Associations fo

• MSR project

• Opportunities for Small Wind

– Develop articles for variety of trade and p

journals

– Work with SEPA 

• Communicate with utilities interested in distri
PV Approach to Net M

• Goal: Reduce hassle factor• Approach

– Drop net metering requirement for systems 

• Excess capacity unlikely in smaller systems

– Use net metering policy as step toward stan

interconnection

• Opportunity for Small Wind

– Work with PV industry to develop standar

interconnection standards 

– Acquire larger cap limits for net metering– Link with biomass
PV Certification/Tra

• Goal: Establish credibility with consumers• Approaches

– NABCEP installer certification: 

• Voluntary • Too soon to assess market impacts • All states do not recognize NABCEP certification a

their own process

– IREC Workforce Training efforts– No PV hardware certification program yet

• Opportunities for Small Wind

– Wind has IEC standard and draft AWEA stan

standard 

– NABCEP Wind Installer Certification in deve

• Integrate manufacturers training with NABCEP cer

– Workforce training through community colleg
Different PV Policy Inc

• Goal: Grow market share• Approaches

– Federal Investment Tax Credit – combined in

economic benefits

– Production Incentive:

• Market-driven • Works well for organizations with fiduciary respon• Consumer function as utility and then become advo

aligned incentives

– New RPS policy with solar set-aside or increa

• DG technologies sometimes shut out by utility-scal

• Opportunity for Small Wind

– Partner with DG advocates to adopt all DG te

inclusive federal and state policies 

• FITC, RPS, and PI
Current Renewable Energy 

Drivers in the United St

 Renewables 

Portfolio Standards

 Renewable 

Energy Funds

 Federal and 

State Tax Incentives

 Green Power 

Markets

 Integrated 

Resource Planning

0

1000200030004000500060007000

2001 2002 2003 

Annual US Wind Development (MW) Other (economical, green 

 RPS-related Renewable Energy Fund-

Energy Analysis Department
-

5

101520253035404550556065

2005 

GW Installed

VIR

Accelerated 

RE Electricity Opport

Expected RE Capacity by Driver

Policy Opportunities • RPS Expansion • IRP •Voluntary Programs - 51015

20253035404550556065

2005 2010 2015

GW Installed

Voluntary MarketsIRPRPS

Achieving up to $50B of Additional RE Investment in 2015
DSIRE: www.dsireusa.org April 20

Renewables Portfolio Stan

WI: requirement varies by 

utility; 10% by 2015 Goal

IA: 105 MW

MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +

Xcel mandate of

1,125 MW wind by 2010

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

*NM: 10% by 2011

☼ AZ: 1.1% by 2007 

CA: 20% by 2010

☼ NV: 20% by 2015

☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited req

•Increased credit for solar

Minimum wind/solar requiremen

HI: 20% by 2020

☼ CO: 10% by 2015

MT: 15% by 2015

IL: 8% by 2013

VT: RE meets lo

growth by 201
Opportunities for Distributed 
Messaging

• Aggregate DG to include small wind, so

others 

– May facilitate coalition-building

• Categorize small wind as energy efficien

– Systems under 10 kW do not meet total nee– Unlike EE, small DG has measurable result– Either define as conservation measures or s– Consider defining DG by scale and owners

technology
• Industry

– Develop package products for cons

simple and use multiple technologi

– Work for mutually beneficial DG i

• Federal Investment Tax Credit• RPS set-asides and extra credit for DG• Productivity incentives • Standardized national interconnection

Future Opportuni
• Government

– Economic tools across DG (wind, PV, solar th– Federal role – help communicate about what’

across state boundaries

– Write articles NACO journals to get informat

– Develop “value” proposition for distributed w– Wind for Schools program (see poster on NRE

Kelly)

– Working with state utility regulators to incorp

IRP

– Continue to work market barriers such as zon

guidelines in place – help minimize consumer 

– Facilitate small wind on government procurem

Future Opportuniti
• Advocacy

– Develop new consumer group conversant on 

• SEIA unable to support small wind in Colorado• Need a new group without history of supporting • Operate with foundation funds

– Build constituency by developing productio

that turn consumers into political interest grthem the utility 

• PI are beneficial since they are market-driven, en

production, and lessen probability that U.S. incen

roller-coaster effect to the market like the ‘80s

• PI works well for organizations with fiduciary re

– Once regional/state advocacy groups mature

reducing hassle factor; e.g., zoning policies

Future Opportuniti
Joint

– DG industries need to work 

together

– Bring robustness to the DG 

industry through hardware performance certification

• Develop standards and certification 

protocol

• Form a Distributed Generation 

Certification Corporation

– Need side-by-side strategies to 

develop utility sector and educate consumers on energy

• Can’t rely on one-on-one 

communication; need to develop 

information through various channels

Future Opportuniti