Colorado – Mesa Verde National Park:Class I area Reasonable Progress Profile AnalysisMesa Verde IMPROVE monitoring siteOctober 26, 2007 DraftBackgroundThe Regional Haze Rule (RHR) requires each haze State Implementation Plan to set 2018 Reasonable Progress Goals (RPGs) for theaverage Worst(20% haziest) and average Best (20% clearest) days for each ClassI area in that state, using the IMPROVE data collected duringthe 2000-04 baselinemonitoring period as the starting point. By 2018, the average Worst days are expected to make “reasonable progress” through the control of sources toimprove visibility on those haziest days, considering a number of factors. By 2018, the Best days are not to be degraded, i.e., the 2018 RPG is to be thesame or better than the 2000-04 monitored Best days. A numberof source category control programs (federal mobile rules, statesmoke managementprograms, state BART/Better-than-BART controls, point and areasource controls implemented since the 2002 baseline emissions inventory year, etcetera) have already been included in the analysis of the likely 2018 RPG values for each Class I area in the WRAP region.Behind the RPG concept is the known relationship between emissionsreductions and improved visibility/reductions in haze. In the West, considerationof the contribution of emissions to 2000-04 baseline conditions onthe Worst and Best days, in terms of natural versus anthropogenic and controllableversus uncontrollable emissions is necessary,given the magnitude of natural and uncontrollable emissions in the West. Detailed assessments and 2018projections of controllable anthropogenic sources have been made by WRAP Forums andWorkgroup to account for the list of federal and states’ controltechnologies, programs, and strategies known to be in effect by2018. In contrast, natural and uncontrollable emissions were held constant in the regionalhaze modeling for the 2018 planning milestone, as predictions about change by 2018 and interannual variation in these emissionswere not possible.To assist haze planners in setting RPGs, and to assess the needand potential for any additional controls beyond those alreadyincluded in the currentWRAP region haze analyses, this document describes the analysis to be performed for eachClass I area in the WRAP region. This document is intendedfor use by those knowledgeable in the details of the RHR and associated planning requirements. WRAP staff will provide standard analyses of the natureand causes of haze at each Class I area monitoring site, then each state would carry the process to complete analyses to provide the state sufficientinformation to set reasonable progress goals and determine long-term strategies in their SIP.Weight of Evidence Analysis Process – Colorado: Mesa Verde National Park Class I areaThe monitoring, modeling, and emissions data and source apportionment results for this Class I area is represented by the MesaVerde IMPROVEmonitoring site.1) Mesa Verde National Park Class I area 2000-04 baseline period lightextinction budget measured at the Mesa Verde IMPROVE monitoring site.22) Emissions sources and regions shown tobe/potentially affecting the Mesa Verde National Park Class I area reported by emissions related tomeasured IMPROVE species (controllable/uncontrollable and natural/anthropogenic)a. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – sulfate3b. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – nitrate4c. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – organic carbon5d. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – elemental carbon6e. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – fine soil7f. Source apportionment by species, source category, and state/region – coarse material8g. What are the emissions in the top 4 to 6 source areas for each species?91011h. How much visibility change is predicted in regional modeling and 2018 visibility projectionsbased on on-the-books controlssummarized next (see [file posted on WRAP website] for detailed description of emissions inputs to modeling scenarios)•Smoke Management Programs accounted for using Emissions Reduction Techniques applied to 2000-04 average Fire emissions•New permits and state/EPA consent agreements since 2002 reviewed with each state•Ozone and PM2.5 SIPs (California)•State Oil and Gas Emissions control programs•Mobile sources•Heavy Duty Diesel (2007) Engine Standard•Tier 2 Tailpipe•Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle Rule•Nonroad Diesel Rule•Combustion Turbine and Industrial Boiler/Process Heater/RICE MACT•VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT Standards•Known BART (CO, UT, ND, OR [Boardman] – to date)•Presumptive SO2 BART for rest of WRAP region1213143) What are the emissions sources in Colorado, potentially affecting the Mesa Verde National Park Class I area?151617