14-i

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14-1

14.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 14-1

14.3 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14-2

14.4 IMPACT OF STANDARDS ON ELECTRICITY PRICES AND ASSOCIATED 

BENEFITS FOR CONSUMERS ................................................................................. 14-10

14.4.1 Impact on Electricity Prices ......................................................................................... 14-10

14.4.2 Impact of Changes in Electricity Price on Electricity Users ........................................ 14-14

14.4.3 Discussion of Savings in Electricity Expenditures ...................................................... 14-15

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 AEO 2010 Reference Case Forecast .................................................................. 14-3

Table 14.3.2 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ................................................ 14-4

Table 14.3.3 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ................................................ 14-4

Table 14.3.4 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ................................................ 14-5

Table 14.3.5 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ................................................ 14-5

Table 14.3.6 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast ................................................ 14-6

Table 14.3.7 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast ................................................ 14-6

Table 14.3.8 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast .................................. 14-7

Table 14.3.9 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast .................................. 14-7

Table 14.3.10 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast .................................. 14-8

Table 14.3.11 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast .................................. 14-8

Table 14.3.12 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast .................................. 14-9

Table 14.3.13 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast .................................. 14-9

Table 14.3.14 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2043 Under Clothes Dryer 

and Room Air Conditioner Trial Standard Levels ........................................... 14-10

Table 14.4.1 Cumulative NPV of the Economy-Wide Savings in Electricity 

Expenditures Due to the Projected Decline in Electricity Prices Resulting 

from the Proposed Standards for Clothes Dryers and Room Air 

Conditioners* ................................................................................................... 14-15

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 14.4.1 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended Clothes Dryer 

Energy Conservation Standard ........................................................................ 14-11

Figure 14.4.2 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended Room Air 

Conditioner Energy Conservation Standard .................................................... 14-12
14-ii

Figure 14.4.3 Effect of Proposed Clothes Dryer Energy Conservation Standard on 

Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users) ...................................................... 14-13

Figure 14.4.4 Effect of Proposed Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standard 

on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users) ................................................. 14-14
14-1 

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of its amended standard levels on the electric and natural gas utility 

industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy 

Modeling System (NEMS).a

 NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectored, partial equilibrium model of 

the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce an energy forecast for the 

United States, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The AEO for 2010 (AEO2010) forecasts energy 

supply and demand through 2035. 1

 DOE used a variant of this model, referred to as NEMS-BT,b to 

account for the impacts of clothes dryer and room air conditioner energy conservation standards. 

DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the AEO2010 

Reference Case and for cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of 

assumptions as the AEO2010. The AEO2010 reference case corresponds to medium economic 

growth.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed capacity and generation 

that result for each trial standard level (TSL) by plant type, as well as changes in residential 

electricity and natural gas consumption. 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the 

analysis of energy conservation standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known 

and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the 

comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy 

supply and demand sectors, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy conservation 

standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which 

yield a better estimate of the actual impact of energy conservation standards than considering only 

average effects.

14.2 METHODOLOGY

NEMS provides reference case load shapes for several end uses. The model uses 

predicted growth in demand for each end use to build up a projection of the total electric system 

load growth for each region, which it uses in turn to predict the necessary additions to capacity. 

DOE uses NEMS-BT to account for the implementation of energy conservation standards by 

 

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003), 

March, 2003. 

b DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any 

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run 

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT 

was previously called NEMS-BRS.
14-2 

decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. For clothes dryers the drying end use 

was decremented and for room air conditioners the cooling end use. These decrements are also 

divided amongst the nine U.S. Census divisions based upon the share of energy end use consumption 

in each division, as given in NEMS. Clothes dryers and room air conditioners will have different 

allocations among the census divisions.

DOE used the site energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (chapter 10) for 

each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for 

NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger than the highest 

efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to each 

TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher energy use reduction levels in NEMS-BT, representing 

multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual 

changes in generation and capacity due to the standard.

 Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2035, other parts of the energy 

conservation standards analysis extend through the year 2043. It is not feasible to extend the forecast 

period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method 

for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2035. While it might seem reasonable to make simple 

linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be 

contradictory. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond 

the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all 

extrapolations beyond 2035 are simple replications of year 2035 results. To emphasize the 

extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual 

NEMS-BT results.

14.3 RESULTS

This utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for residential sector electricity 

consumption, natural gas consumption, total electricity generation by fuel type, and installed 

electricity generation capacity by fuel type. Results are presented in five-year increments through

2035. Beyond 2035, an extrapolation through 2043 for each TSL represents a simple replication of 

the 2035 results. 

The results from the AEO2010 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.3.1. 

A separate set of TSLs was modeled for room air conditioners and clothes washers. The 

results for the clothes dryer TSLs are presented in Tables 14.3.2 through 14.3.7, and the results for 

room air conditioner TSLs are presented in Tables 14.3.8 through 14.3.13. Each table shows 

forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 14.2, for total U.S. electricity generation 

and installed capacity. 

 The considered clothes dryer TSLs reduce electricity as well as natural gas consumption 

compared to the AEO2010 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA Model for 

all clothes dryer products range from 0.001 to 1.02 percent of total residential electricity 

consumption in the year 2035. The natural gas savings range from 0.000 percent to 0.122 percent of 

total residential natural gas savings in the year 2035. 
14-3 

 The considered room air conditioner TSLs reduce only electricity consumption compared to 

the AEO2010 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA Model for all room air 

conditioner products range from 0.049 to 0.206 percent of total residential electricity consumption in 

the year 2035. 

Table 14.3.1 AEO 2010 Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: AEO2010 Reference

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,359 1,388 1,400 1,472 1,553 1,637 1,707

Total U.S. Electric Generation 3

Coal (TWh) 2,013 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,305

Gas (TWh) 759 857 690 769 886 1,018 1,095

Petroleum (TWh) 122 45 46 47 48 48 49

Nuclear (TWh) 782 813 834 883 886 886 895

Renewables (TWh) 358 462 649 714 797 850 890

Total (TWh)4 4,034 4,005 4,257 4,503 4,746 5,012 5,234

Installed Generating Capacity 5

Coal (GW) 314 321 325 326 326 330 337

Other Fossil (GW)6 439 468 445 446 467 501 534

Nuclear (GW) 100 102 105 111 111 111 113

Renewables (GW) 99 133 171 177 186 196 209

Total (GW)7 952 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192

1

Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2010: Energy Consumption, Residential

2

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2010: Electricity Sales by Sector

3

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2010: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

4

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

5

Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2010: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

6

Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

7

Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells
14-4 

Table 14.3.2 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

Table 14.3.3 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,472 1,553 1,637 1,707 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 -0.009 -0.011 -0.013 -0.014 -0.015

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.29 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.97 5.04 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other (Quads) 1.59 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 886 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.001 -0.001 -0.005 -0.005 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Renewables (TWh) 462 649 714 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,503 4,746 5,012 5,234 Total (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.005 -0.008 -0.010 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 337 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 133 171 177 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,553 1,637 1,707 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.041 -0.148 -0.242 -0.312 -0.361 -0.397 -0.415

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.29 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.97 5.04 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other (Quads) 1.59 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.004 0.010 -0.033 0.000 -0.053 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052

Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.006 0.037 -0.038 -0.132 -0.136 -0.123 -0.123 -0.123

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023

Renewables (TWh) 462 648 714 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.010 -0.091 -0.081 -0.099 -0.106 -0.129 -0.129 -0.129

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,746 5,011 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.000 -0.044 -0.153 -0.232 -0.296 -0.329 -0.329 -0.329

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 337 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.008 -0.010 -0.022 -0.021 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003

Renewables (GW) 133 171 177 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.003 -0.025 -0.025 -0.022 -0.024 -0.031 -0.031 -0.031

Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.003 -0.034 -0.036 -0.046 -0.049 -0.060 -0.060 -0.060

Extrapolation
14-5 

Table 14.3.4 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

Table 14.3.5 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,552 1,635 1,705 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.24 -0.88 -1.45 -1.86 -2.15 -2.36 -2.47

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.29 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.97 5.04 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other (Quads) 1.59 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.02 0.06 -0.20 0.00 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31

Gas (TWh) 857 691 769 885 1,017 1,094 Gas (TWh) 0.04 0.22 -0.23 -0.79 -0.81 -0.73 -0.73 -0.73

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14

Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 796 849 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.06 -0.55 -0.49 -0.59 -0.63 -0.77 -0.77 -0.77

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,010 5,232 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.26 -0.91 -1.38 -1.76 -1.96 -1.96 -1.96

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 337 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.009 -0.008 -0.008 -0.026 -0.016 -0.016 -0.016

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.048 -0.062 -0.134 -0.124 -0.136 -0.136 -0.136

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 112 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018

Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.017 -0.149 -0.148 -0.131 -0.141 -0.187 -0.187 -0.187

Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.017 -0.206 -0.217 -0.273 -0.291 -0.358 -0.358 -0.358

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,552 1,635 1,705 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.24 -0.85 -1.40 -1.79 -2.07 -2.28 -2.38

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.29 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002

Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.96 5.04 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002

Other (Quads) 1.59 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.02 0.06 -0.19 0.00 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30

Gas (TWh) 857 691 769 885 1,017 1,094 Gas (TWh) 0.04 0.22 -0.22 -0.76 -0.78 -0.71 -0.71 -0.71

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13

Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 796 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.06 -0.53 -0.47 -0.57 -0.61 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,010 5,232 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.25 -0.88 -1.33 -1.70 -1.89 -1.89 -1.89

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 337 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.009 -0.007 -0.007 -0.025 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.046 -0.059 -0.129 -0.120 -0.131 -0.131 -0.131

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 112 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018

Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.016 -0.144 -0.143 -0.127 -0.136 -0.181 -0.181 -0.181

Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.017 -0.199 -0.210 -0.263 -0.280 -0.345 -0.345 -0.345

Extrapolation
14-6 

Table 14.3.6 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

Table 14.3.7 Clothes Dryers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,399 1,468 1,548 1,630 1,700 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.87 -3.15 -5.15 -6.62 -7.65 -8.42 -8.79

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007

Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.96 5.03 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007

Other (Quads) 1.59 1.44 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,208 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.08 0.22 -0.70 0.01 -1.12 -1.11 -1.11 -1.11

Gas (TWh) 857 691 768 883 1,015 1,092 Gas (TWh) 0.14 0.80 -0.82 -2.81 -2.90 -2.61 -2.61 -2.61

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 894 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49

Renewables (TWh) 462 647 712 795 848 888 Renewables (TWh) -0.21 -1.95 -1.73 -2.11 -2.24 -2.73 -2.73 -2.73

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,256 4,499 4,741 5,005 5,227 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.93 -3.26 -4.93 -6.28 -6.98 -6.98 -6.98

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.17 -0.22 -0.48 -0.44 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 112 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06

Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 195 209 Renewables (GW) -0.06 -0.53 -0.53 -0.47 -0.50 -0.67 -0.67 -0.67

Total (GW) 1,024 1,045 1,058 1,090 1,137 1,191 Total (GW) -0.06 -0.73 -0.78 -0.97 -1.04 -1.27 -1.27 -1.27

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,398 1,464 1,542 1,622 1,690 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -1.98 -7.20 -11.76 -15.11 -17.47 -19.21 -20.07

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.22 5.11 5.24 5.31 5.31 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007

Other (EJ) 1.68 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.35 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.95 4.85 4.96 5.03 5.03 5.01 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007

Other (Quads) 1.59 1.44 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.28 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,089 2,128 2,206 2,302 Coal (TWh) 0.04 -0.04 -1.52 -1.39 -2.77 -3.05 -3.05 -3.05

Gas (TWh) 858 691 767 878 1,010 1,088 Gas (TWh) 0.48 1.05 -2.52 -7.27 -7.77 -7.30 -7.30 -7.30

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 -0.05 -0.07 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 894 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75

Renewables (TWh) 462 645 711 793 846 885 Renewables (TWh) -0.50 -3.09 -3.00 -3.87 -4.09 -5.10 -5.10 -5.10

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,255 4,496 4,733 4,997 5,217 Total (TWh) 0.01 -2.09 -7.07 -12.57 -14.69 -16.29 -16.29 -16.29

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.12 -0.07 -0.07 -0.19 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 466 500 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.25 -0.38 -0.82 -0.96 -0.88 -0.88 -0.88

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 112 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 185 195 208 Renewables (GW) -0.15 -0.86 -0.87 -0.78 -0.83 -1.12 -1.12 -1.12

Total (GW) 1,024 1,045 1,058 1,089 1,136 1,190 Total (GW) -0.15 -1.22 -1.32 -1.67 -1.98 -2.27 -2.27 -2.27

Extrapolation
14-7 

Table 14.3.8 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast 

Table 14.3.9 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,552 1,636 1,707 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.300 -0.837 -1.030 -1.009 -0.840 -0.644 -0.560

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.021 -0.141 -0.086 -0.158 -0.195 -0.195 -0.195

Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.063 0.060 -0.272 -0.515 -0.364 -0.237 -0.237 -0.237

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.006 -0.006 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Renewables (TWh) 462 648 714 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.060 -0.328 -0.297 -0.324 -0.284 -0.220 -0.220 -0.220

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,011 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.002 -0.292 -0.716 -0.931 -0.811 -0.658 -0.658 -0.658

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.007 -0.011 -0.010 -0.018 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 534 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.094 -0.129 -0.192 -0.262 -0.271 -0.271 -0.271

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 133 171 177 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.018 -0.091 -0.086 -0.076 -0.067 -0.055 -0.055 -0.055

Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,091 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.018 -0.192 -0.226 -0.278 -0.347 -0.348 -0.348 -0.348

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,471 1,552 1,636 1,706 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.36 -1.00 -1.23 -1.21 -1.03 -0.83 -0.74

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.026 -0.168 -0.103 -0.191 -0.239 -0.239 -0.239

Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.075 0.072 -0.325 -0.615 -0.438 -0.292 -0.292 -0.292

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.007 -0.007 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.072 -0.392 -0.354 -0.386 -0.342 -0.271 -0.271 -0.271

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,011 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.002 -0.348 -0.854 -1.112 -0.976 -0.809 -0.809 -0.809

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.009 -0.013 -0.012 -0.022 -0.028 -0.028 -0.028

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.112 -0.154 -0.229 -0.315 -0.334 -0.334 -0.334

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.021 -0.109 -0.103 -0.091 -0.081 -0.067 -0.067 -0.067

Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,090 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.021 -0.230 -0.269 -0.332 -0.418 -0.429 -0.429 -0.429

Extrapolation
14-8 

Table 14.3.10 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

Table 14.3.11 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,470 1,552 1,636 1,706 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.42 -1.13 -1.32 -1.25 -1.05 -0.84 -0.74

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.030 -0.190 -0.110 -0.196 -0.244 -0.244 -0.244

Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.091 0.085 -0.366 -0.658 -0.452 -0.297 -0.297 -0.297

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.003 -0.008 -0.008 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 797 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.087 -0.462 -0.400 -0.413 -0.352 -0.276 -0.276 -0.276

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,502 4,745 5,011 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.41 -0.96 -1.19 -1.01 -0.82 -0.82 -0.82

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.010 -0.014 -0.013 -0.023 -0.029 -0.029 -0.029

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 446 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.132 -0.174 -0.245 -0.324 -0.340 -0.340 -0.340

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.026 -0.128 -0.116 -0.097 -0.084 -0.068 -0.068 -0.068

Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,090 1,138 1,192 Total (GW) -0.026 -0.271 -0.304 -0.356 -0.431 -0.436 -0.436 -0.436

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,400 1,470 1,552 1,635 1,706 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.56 -1.50 -1.79 -1.74 -1.52 -1.27 -1.15

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.040 -0.254 -0.149 -0.274 -0.353 -0.353 -0.353

Gas (TWh) 857 690 769 885 1,018 1,095 Gas (TWh) 0.121 0.112 -0.489 -0.894 -0.629 -0.430 -0.430 -0.430

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.004 -0.011 -0.010 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 796 850 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.115 -0.611 -0.534 -0.561 -0.491 -0.399 -0.399 -0.399

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,257 4,501 4,744 5,010 5,233 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.54 -1.29 -1.61 -1.40 -1.19 -1.19 -1.19

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.014 -0.019 -0.018 -0.032 -0.041 -0.041 -0.041

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.175 -0.232 -0.333 -0.452 -0.492 -0.492 -0.492

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.034 -0.169 -0.155 -0.132 -0.116 -0.099 -0.099 -0.099

Total (GW) 1,024 1,046 1,059 1,090 1,137 1,192 Total (GW) -0.034 -0.358 -0.406 -0.483 -0.600 -0.632 -0.632 -0.632

Extrapolation
14-9 

Table 14.3.12 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

Table 14.3.13 Room Air Conditioners Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,399 1,469 1,551 1,634 1,705 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -0.81 -2.21 -2.69 -2.70 -2.44 -2.10 -1.90

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,130 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.06 -0.37 -0.22 -0.42 -0.57 -0.57 -0.57

Gas (TWh) 857 690 768 884 1,017 1,094 Gas (TWh) 0.17 0.16 -0.72 -1.35 -0.97 -0.69 -0.69 -0.69

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Renewables (TWh) 462 648 713 796 849 890 Renewables (TWh) -0.17 -0.88 -0.78 -0.85 -0.76 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,256 4,501 4,743 5,010 5,232 Total (TWh) 0.01 -0.78 -1.89 -2.43 -2.17 -1.91 -1.91 -1.91

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.05 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 467 501 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.25 -0.34 -0.50 -0.70 -0.79 -0.79 -0.79

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.05 -0.24 -0.23 -0.20 -0.18 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16

Total (GW) 1,024 1,045 1,058 1,090 1,137 1,191 Total (GW) -0.05 -0.52 -0.60 -0.73 -0.93 -1.01 -1.01 -1.01

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2010 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,388 1,399 1,469 1,550 1,633 1,704 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 -1.08 -2.99 -3.70 -3.78 -3.52 -3.11 -2.85

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,828 2,038 2,090 2,129 2,209 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.08 -0.51 -0.31 -0.59 -0.81 -0.81 -0.81

Gas (TWh) 857 691 768 884 1,017 1,094 Gas (TWh) 0.23 0.22 -0.97 -1.85 -1.37 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99

Petroleum (TWh) 45 46 47 48 48 49 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02

Nuclear (TWh) 813 834 883 886 886 895 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Renewables (TWh) 462 647 713 796 849 889 Renewables (TWh) -0.22 -1.18 -1.06 -1.16 -1.06 -0.92 -0.92 -0.92

Total (TWh) 4,005 4,256 4,500 4,743 5,009 5,231 Total (TWh) 0.01 -1.05 -2.56 -3.35 -3.04 -2.75 -2.75 -2.75

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 321 325 326 326 330 336 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.07 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

Other Fossil (GW) 468 445 445 467 500 533 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.34 -0.46 -0.69 -0.98 -1.14 -1.14 -1.14

Nuclear (GW) 102 105 111 111 111 113 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Renewables (GW) 133 171 176 186 196 209 Renewables (GW) -0.07 -0.33 -0.31 -0.27 -0.25 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23

Total (GW) 1,024 1,045 1,058 1,090 1,137 1,191 Total (GW) -0.07 -0.69 -0.81 -1.00 -1.30 -1.46 -1.46 -1.46

Extrapolation
14-10

Table 14.3.14 presents the estimated reduction in electricity generating capacity in 2043 

for the TSLs that DOE considered in this rulemaking. 

Table 14.3.14 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2043 Under Clothes Dryer 

and Room Air Conditioner Trial Standard Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

Clothes Dryers

Gigawatts

0.002 0.060 0.358 0.345 1.27 2.27

Room Air Conditioners 0.348 0.429 0.436 0.632 1.01 1.46

14.4 IMPACT OF STANDARDS ON ELECTRICITY PRICES AND ASSOCIATED 

BENEFITS FOR CONSUMERS

 Using the framework of the utility impact analysis, DOE analyzed the potential impact on 

electricity prices resulting from the standards on clothes dryer and room air conditioner products. 

Associated benefits for all electricity users in all sectors of the economy are then derived from 

these price impacts.

DOE’s analysis of energy price impacts used NEMS-BT in a similar manner as described 

in section 14.2. Like other widely-used energy-economic models, NEMS uses elasticities to 

estimate the energy price change that would result from a change (increase or decrease) in 

energy demand. The elasticity of price to a decrease in demand is the “inverse price elasticity.” 

The calculated inverse price elasticity based on NEMS-BT simulations differs throughout the 

forecast period in response to the dynamics of supply and demand for electricity. 

14.4.1 Impact on Electricity Prices

DOE analyzed the electricity price effect of clothes dryers and room air conditioners 

separately. A separate regression was completed for both products to determine their effect on 

electricity prices independent of one another. After generating results using higher decrements 

to energy consumption, a regressed interpolation toward the origin derived the price effects 

associated with the energy savings of the TSLs. Results were then scaled to the appropriate 

TSL; the amended standard for both of these products is TSL 4. The electricity price impacts for 

clothes dryers and room air conditioners are presented separately below. 

Figure 14.4.1 and 14.4.2 show the annual change in U.S. electricity sales for the amended

standards, relative to the base case which involves no new standards. 
14-11

Figure 14.4.1 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended

Clothes Dryer Energy Conservation Standard 

-2.0

-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

TWH

Change in Electricity Sales for Clothes Dryers

TSL 4
14-12

Figure 14.4.2 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended

Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standard 

Figures 14.4.3 and 14.4.4 show the annual change in average U.S. price for electricity, 

relative to the Reference case, projected to result from the amended standards. For clothes 

dryers the price reduction averages 0.001 cents per kWh (in 2009$), or a price reduction of 0.01 

percent, over the period from 2014 through 2035. For room air conditioners the price reduction 

averages 0.003 cents per kWh (in 2009$), or a price reduction of 0.03 percent over the same 

period. 

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

TWH

Change in Electricity Sales for Room Air Conditioners

TSL 4
14-13

Figure 14.4.3 Effect of Proposed Clothes Dryer Energy Conservation 

Standard on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users) 

-0.00003

-0.00002

-0.00001

0.00000

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

2009$/KWH

Change in Electricity Prices for Clothes Dryers

TSL 4
14-14

Figure 14.4.4 Effect of Proposed Room Air Conditioner Energy 

Conservation Standard on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All 

Users) 

14.4.2 Impact of Changes in Electricity Price on Electricity Users

Using the estimated electricity price impacts, DOE calculated the nominal savings in total 

electricity expenditures in each year by multiplying the annual change in the average-user price 

for electricity by the total annual U.S. electricity sales forecast by NEMS, adjusted for the impact 

of the standards. The amended standards would continue to reduce demand for electricity after 

2035 (which is the last year in the NEMS forecast). DOE’s estimate for 2036–2043 (the period 

used to estimate the NPV of the national consumer benefits from amended standards) multiplied 

the average electricity price reduction in 2015–2035 by estimated total annual electricity sales in

2036–2043.c

 DOE then discounted the stream of reduced expenditures to calculate a NPV.

Table 14.4.1 shows the calculated NPV of the economy-wide savings in electricity 

expenditures for each considered TSL at 3-percent and 7-percent discount rates. The need to 

extrapolate price effects and electricity sales beyond 2035 suggests that one should interpret the 

post-2035 results as a rough indication of the benefits to electricity users in the post-2035 period. 

 

c The estimation of electricity sales after 2035 uses the average annual growth rate in 2031-2035 of total U.S. 

electricity sales forecasted by NEMS. This forecast includes the impact of the standards.

-0.00004

-0.00003

-0.00002

-0.00001

0.00000

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

2009$/KWH

Change in Electricity Prices for Room Air Conditioners

TSL 4
14-15

Table 14.4.1 Cumulative NPV of the Economy-Wide Savings in Electricity Expenditures 

Due to the Projected Decline in Electricity Prices Resulting from the 

Proposed Standards for Clothes Dryers and Room Air Conditioners* 

Discount Rate Clothes Dryers

(billion $2009)

Room Air Conditioners

(billion $2009)

3 percent 0.862 2.098

7 percent 0.409 1.051

* Impacts for units sold from 2014 to 2043

14.4.3 Discussion of Savings in Electricity Expenditures

Although the aggregate benefits for all electricity users are potentially large, there may be 

negative effects on the actors involved in electricity supply. The electric power industry is a 

complex mix of power plant providers, fuel suppliers, electricity generators, and electricity 

distributors. While the distribution of electricity is regulated everywhere, the institutional 

structure of the power sector varies, and has changed over time. For these reasons, an assessment 

of impacts on the actors involved in electricity supply from reduction in electricity demand 

associated with energy conservation standards is beyond the scope of this rulemaking. 

In considering the potential benefits to electricity users, DOE takes under advisement the 

provided by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to Federal agencies on the 

development of regulatory analysis (OMB Circular A-4 (Sept. 17, 2003), section E, “Identifying 

and Measuring Benefits and Costs”). Specifically, at page 38, Circular A-4 instructs that 

transfers should be excluded from the estimates of the benefits and costs of a regulation. DOE is 

continuing to investigate the extent to which change in electricity prices projected to result from 

standards represents a net gain to society.
14-16

REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration, Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference 

Case Service Report, 2010. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2010). 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/>