Rising income, higher educational attainment, improved

diet and health knowledge, more frequent eating out, and a

growing population that will become older and more

diverse in race and ethnicity are all shaping U.S. agricultural consumption. These effects are analyzed using data from

the 1994-96 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes

by Individuals. We then project the consumption of 25 food

groups and 22 commodity groups, including various fruit

and vegetable groups, to 2020. 

Major findings on fruit and vegetable consumption summarized here are drawn from Food and Agricultural Commodity

Consumption in the United States: Looking Ahead to 2020.

The report offers more detail on study objectives, data,

methodology, analytical limitations, and findings.

At-Home Use Dominates Away-From-Home Use

With the exception of fried potatoes and potato chips,

at-home use dominates away-from-home use for fruits and

vegetables (table 1). Using 1994-98 data, the 

at-home market was estimated to account for about 90 percent of fruit consumption in 2000, growing slightly to 90-92

percent in 2020. The at-home market share for vegetables

ranges from 49 percent for fried potatoes and potato chips to

76 percent for tomatoes and to 82 percent for other potatoes.

Little change in market distribution is predicted to 2020.

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Economic 

Research

Service

Agriculture Information Bulletin 792-7 October 2004

Fruit and Vegetable

Consumption

Looking Ahead to 2020

Biing-Hwan Lin, blin@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5458

Table 1—Growth of fruit and vegetable markets and shares of at-home and away-from-home markets,

2000 and 2020

Commodity market share

Commodity Market growth: 2000 to 20201 2000 2020

At home Away At home Away At home Away

Percent

Fruit

Citrus 28 20 89 11 90 10

Apples 28 20 91 9 92 8

Grapes 24 20 91 9 91 9

Other fruit 27 22 90 10 90 10

Vegetables

Fried potatoes and chips 5 10 49 51 48 52

Other potatoes 13 20 82 18 82 18

Tomatoes 19 20 76 24 76 24

Lettuce 22 26 57 43 56 44

Other vegetables 21 26 80 20 80 20

1Percentage increases in total U.S. consumption between 2000 and 2020.
Income, Age, Race, and Education 

Are Major Factors

Between 2000 and 2020, total fruit consumption is predicted to grow by 24-27 percent because of increased per capita

consumption and 50 million more consumers in the U.S.

market (table 2). Per capita fruit consumption is predicted to

grow between 5 and 8 percent because of higher income,

aging of the U.S. population, higher educational achievement, and the influx of Hispanics and Asians. 

With the exception of potatoes, per capita vegetable consumption is predicted to grow between 2000 and 2020. Per

capita consumption of fried potatoes and potato chips is

2 Economic Research Service / USDA

Agriculture Information Bulletin 792-7

Table 2—Effects on fruit and vegetable consumption, 2000 to 2020

Per capita effects

Total Urbani- Household

Commodity market1 Net Income Age Region zation Race type Education

Percent

Fruit

Citrus 26.68 7.40 1.87 0.48 -0.62 0.45 2.48 0.61 2.13

Apples 27.20 7.84 1.93 0.95 -0.55 0.47 2.42 0.47 2.14

Grapes 24.00 5.13 1.23 0.59 -0.45 0.40 1.35 0.31 1.69

Other fruit 26.21 7.00 1.48 1.96 0.06 0.50 1.33 0.06 1.61

Vegetables

Fried potatoes and chips 7.81 -8.60 0.19 -5.76 0.06 -0.33 -1.72 -0.21 -0.82

Other potatoes 14.45 -2.97 -1.86 3.18 -0.76 -0.50 -2.19 -0.94 0.12

Tomatoes 19.43 1.25 0.86 -0.75 0.11 0.08 0.88 -0.10 0.18

Lettuce 23.96 5.09 2.12 0.68 0.10 0.26 0.37 0.84 0.71

Other vegetables 22.21 3.61 0.65 1.34 -0.04 0.14 0.54 0.41 0.57

1Total market shows total U.S. consumption, reflecting an additional 50 million consumers by 2020 

Predicted market growth, 2000 to 2020

Source: Economic Research Service.

2000

Other vegetables

Lettuce

Tomatoes

Other potatoes

Fried potatoes/chips

Other fruit

Grapes

Apples

Citrus 27%

27%

24%

26%

8%

14%

19%

24%

22%

Percentage change in per capita fruit and vegetable consumption, 2000 to 2020

Source: Economic Research Service.

Citrus Apples Grapes Other fruit

Othe

potatoes

Tomatoes Lettuce Othe

vegetables

7.4% 7.8%

5.1%

7.0%

-8.6%

-3.0%

1.3%

5.1%

3.6%

Fried potatoes

and chips
predicted to fall by almost 9 percent because of aging,

changing racial/ethnic composition, and higher education

and dietary knowledge. While aging favors consumption of

other potatoes (mainly baked), income growth and changing racial/ethnic composition are predicted to lower the

consumption of other potatoes.

Rising income and more Hispanics favor tomato consumption, but older Americans consume fewer tomatoes (likely

because of eating less ketchup that goes with French fries)

(fig. 4). Lettuce leads growth in vegetable consumption,

thanks to rising income and all other social/demographic

factors. Per capita consumption of other vegetables is also

expected to grow during the next two decades.

Income Plays Two Roles

Income is found to directly affect fruit and vegetable consumption, and it also affects eating out and dietary knowledge—which in turn affect fruit and vegetable consumption

(table 3). Higher income leads to more eating out and better dietary knowledge. While knowledge leads to more fruit

consumption, eating out lowers fruit consumption. On the

other hand, eating out increases and knowledge decreases

the consumption of fried potatoes and potato chips. The

largest income effect is for lettuce, with positive direct and

indirect income effects.

Economic Research Service / USDA 3

Agriculture Information Bulletin 792-7

Effects of income, age, and race on per capita fruit and vegetable consumption, 2000 to 2020

Source: Economic Research Service.

ncome effect Age effect

Race et nicit effect

Other potatoes

Fried potatoes and chips

Fried potatoes and chips

Other potatoes

Other vegetables

Lettuce

Tomatoes

Fried potatoes and chips

Other fruit

Grapes

Apples

Citrus 1.9%

1.9%

1.2%

1.5%

0.2%

-1.9%

0.9%

2.1%

0.7% Other vegetables

Lettuce

Other potatoes

Other fruit

Grapes

Apples

Citrus 0.5%

1.0%

0.6%

2.0%

-5.8%

3.2%

-0.8%

0.7%

1.3%

Other vegetables

Lettuce

Tomatoes

Other fruit

Grapes

Apples

Citrus 2.5%

2.4%

1.4%

1.3%

-1.7%

-2.2%

0.9%

0.4%

0.5%

Tomatoes
Eating Out Cancels Out Knowledge

There are two offsetting factors in the consumption of fruits

and vegetables. With higher educational attainment, consumers are equipped with better dietary knowledge and

hence consume more fruits and vegetables, except fried

potatoes and chips. Meanwhile, eating out has grown more

frequent over the past three decades, and should continue to

do so. This is expected to lower fruit consumption, but

increase consumption of all potatoes and lettuce.

Information Source

Lin, Biing-Hwan, Jayachandran N. Variyam, Jane

Allshouse, and John Cromartie. Food and Agricultural

Commodity Consumption in the United States: Looking

Ahead to 2020, USDA/ERS, AER-820, Feb. 2003.

4 Economic Research Service / USDA

Agriculture Information Bulletin 792-7

Effects of eating out and dietary knowledge on per capita fruit and vegetables consumption, 2000 to 2020

Source: Economic Research Service.

Eating out effect Knowledge effect

Lettuce

Other potatoes

Fried potatoes and chips

-1.0%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.7%

0.7%

0.3%

-0.0%

0.1%

-0.3% Other vegetables

Lettuce

Other potatoe

Other fruit

Grapes

Apples

Citrus 1.3%

1.3%

1.1%

1.0%

-0.6%

0.2%

0.1%

0.4%

0.4%

Other fruit

Grapes

Apples

Citrus

Tomatoes

Other vegetables

Tomatoes

Fried potatoes and chips

Table 3—Total, direct, and indirect effects of rising income on per capita fruit and vegetable consumption

Indirect income effect

Commodities Total income effect Direct income effect Eating out Knowledge

Percent

Fruit

Citrus 1.87 1.85 -1.77 1.83

Apples 1.93 1.95 -1.81 1.81

Grapes 1.23 1.21 -1.42 1.48

Other fruit 1.48 1.36 -1.22 1.36

Vegetables

Fried potatoes and chips 0.19 -0.47 1.75 -1.08

Other potatoes -1.86 -2.53 0.49 0.19

Tomatoes 0.86 0.76 -0.01 0.11

Lettuce 2.12 1.42 0.18 0.50

Other vegetables 0.65 0.63 -0.46 0.47

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