Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition, Reference case

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and Disposition 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

 Crude Oil

 Domestic Crude Production 1/ 4.96 5.36 5.51 5.46 5.38 5.58 5.76 5.81 5.96 6.08 6.1

 Alaska 0.69 0.65 0.61 0.59 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.49 0.47 0.45 0.42

 Lower 48 States 4.28 4.71 4.9 4.87 4.83 5.05 5.24 5.32 5.49 5.63 5.68

 Net Imports 9.75 8.97 9.17 9.13 8.98 8.93 8.76 8.7 8.57 8.42 8.35

 Gross Imports 9.78 9.01 9.21 9.17 9 8.96 8.79 8.74 8.6 8.46 8.38

 Exports 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

 Other Crude Supply 2/ -0.06 0.01 0.01 0.08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Total Crude Supply 14.66 14.33 14.69 14.66 14.35 14.51 14.52 14.52 14.52 14.5 14.46

 Other Petroleum Supply 4.1 3.59 3.36 3.43 4.28 4.38 4.41 4.38 4.37 4.32 4.31

 Natural Gas Plant Liquids 1.78 1.91 1.96 1.95 2.16 2.19 2.2 2.23 2.23 2.24 2.28

 Net Product Imports 1.39 0.75 0.37 0.48 1.12 1.19 1.2 1.14 1.12 1.05 1.01

 Gross Refined Product Imports 3/ 1.55 1.27 0.97 1.04 1.04 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.04 0.99 0.99

 Unfinished Oil Imports 0.76 0.68 0.62 0.66 0.78 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.79

 Blending Component Imports 0.79 0.72 0.7 0.69 0.78 0.8 0.8 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81

 Exports 1.71 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.5 1.53 1.56 1.59

 Refinery Processing Gain 4/ 1 0.98 1.03 1 1.01 1 1 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03

 Product Stock Withdrawal -0.07 -0.04 0 0 0 00 0 00 0

 Other Non-petroleum Supply 0.76 0.81 1.01 1.23 1.24 1.28 1.31 1.42 1.5 1.62 1.7

 Supply from Renewable Sources 0.66 0.76 0.89 0.95 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.12 1.16 1.24 1.31

 Ethanol 0.64 0.73 0.86 0.9 0.98 1 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.12 1.19

 Domestic Production 0.61 0.72 0.86 0.89 0.96 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.98 1.02 1.06

 Net Imports 0.03 0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.1 0.12

 Biodiesel 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1 0.1

 Domestic Production 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.09

 Net Imports -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0 0.01 0.01 0 0 0 0 0

 Other Biomass-derived Liquids 5/ 0 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03

 Liquids from Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Liquids from Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06

 Other 6/ 0.1 0.05 0.12 0.28 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.33

 Total Primary Supply 7/ 19.51 18.73 19.05 19.32 19.88 20.17 20.24 20.32 20.4 20.44 20.47

 Liquid Fuels Consumption

 by Fuel

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases 2.04 2.13 2.13 2.1 2.25 2.29 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.33 2.33

 E85 8/ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.12

 Motor Gasoline 9/ 8.99 9 9.02 9.09 9.33 9.38 9.39 9.4 9.42 9.36 9.29

 Jet Fuel 10/ 1.54 1.39 1.4 1.41 1.52 1.52 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.59

 Distillate Fuel Oil 11/ 3.95 3.63 3.73 3.75 3.98 4.11 4.11 4.13 4.18 4.21 4.25

 of which: Diesel 3.44 3.18 3.24 3.26 3.5 3.64 3.65 3.68 3.73 3.77 3.82

 Residual Fuel Oil 0.62 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.6 0.6 0.59 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Other 12/ 2.38 2.15 2.16 2.21 2.3 2.37 2.4 2.43 2.44 2.44 2.41

 by Sector

 Residential and Commercial 1.06 1.04 1 1 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92

 Industrial 13/ 4.69 4.25 4.37 4.5 4.77 4.91 4.95 4.99 5.01 5.01 4.98

 Transportation 13.87 13.61 13.74 13.88 14.03 14.2 14.25 14.31 14.39 14.45 14.5

 Electric Power 14/ 0.21 0.18 0.2 0.2 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19

 Total 19.52 18.81 18.98 19.1 19.98 20.28 20.35 20.44 20.53 20.58 20.59

 Discrepancy 15/ -0.01 -0.08 0.07 0.22 -0.1 -0.11 -0.11 -0.12 -0.13 -0.14 -0.13

Domestic Refinery Distillation Capacity 16/ 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.9

Capacity Utilization Rate (percent) 17/ 85 83 86 85 83.2 84.2 84.7 84.9 85.6 86.5 87.5

Net Import Share of Product Supplied (perc

ent) 57.2 51.9 50 49.7 50.9 50.3 49.4 48.8 47.9 46.8 46.4
Net Expenditures for Imports of Crude O

il and

 Petroleum Products (billion 2009 dollars) 272.65 203.65 215.62 268.18 280.59 287.49 290.1 296.22 300.23 306.3 312.46

 1/ Includes lease condensate.

 2/ Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude product supplied

 3/ Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohols.

 4/ The volumetric amount by which total output is greater than input due to the processing of crude oil into products which, in total,

have a lower specific gravity than the crude oil processed.

 5/ Includes pyrolysis oils, biomass-derived Fischer-Tropsch liquids, and renewable feedstocks used for the production

of green diesel and gasoline.

 6/ Includes domestic sources of other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers.

 7/ Total crude supply plus natural gas plant liquids, other inputs, refinery processing gain, and net product imports.

 8/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address

cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of

74 percent is used for this forecast.

 9/ Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline.

 10/ Includes only kerosene type.

 11/ Includes distillate fuel oil and kerosene from petroleum and biomass feedstocks.

 12/ Includes aviation gasoline, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas,

special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product supplied, methanol, and miscellaneous petroleum products.

 13/ Includes consumption for combined heat and power, which produces electricity and other useful thermal energy.

 14/ Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business

is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators.

 15/ Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses and gains.

 16/ End-of-year operable capacity.

 17/ Rate is calculated by dividing the gross annual input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units by their

operable refining capacity in barrels per calendar day.

 - - = Not applicable.

 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2008 and 2009

are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

 Sources: 2008 and 2009 product supplied based on: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA),

Annual Energy Review 2009, DOE/EIA-0384(2009) (Washington, DC, August 2010).

Other 2008 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2008, DOE/EIA-0340(2008)/1 (Washington, DC, June 2009).

Other 2009 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2009, DOE/EIA-0340(2009)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2010).

Projections: EIA, AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System.