DOE/EIADis tri bu tion Cate gory

Natural Gas Productive Capacity

for the

Lower 48 States

1986 Through 1998

December 1997

Energy Information Administration

Office of Oil and Gas

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

This re port was pre pared by the En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion, the in de pend ent statis ti cal and

ana lyti cal agency within the De part ment of En ergy. The in for ma tion con tained herein should not be

con strued as ad vo cat ing or re flect ing any pol icy po si tion of the De part ment of En ergy or any other or -

gani za tion.
Preface

The Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48

States 1986 Through 1998 is the sixth in this series of reports

prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The five previous reports were published in 1991, 1993,

1994, 1996, and 1997 {1,2,3,4,5} The EIA Dallas Field

Office has prepared five earlier reports regarding natural gas

productive capacity. These reports, Gas Deliverability and

Flow Capacity of Surveillance Fields, reported deliverability

and capacity data for selected gas fields in major

gas-producing areas.{6,7,8,9,10} The data in the reports

were based on gas-well back-pressure tests and estimates of

gas-in-place for each field or reservoir. These reports use

proven well testing theory, most of which has been employed

by industry since 1936, when the Bureau of Mines first

published Monograph 7.{11} 

This publication is used by the Congress, Federal and State

agencies, industry, and other interested parties to obtain

accurate data of the lower 48 States' natural gas production

history and wellhead productive capacity. Capacity

projections from this report are used in EIA's Short-Term

Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections. The report also

contains a projection of lower 48 States' gas production

requirements and wellhead productive capacity. These data

are essential for the evaluation of the adequacy of future gas

supplies, especially in periods of peak heating or cooling

demand.

Total demand for natural gas in the United States is met by a

combination of natural gas production, underground gas

storage, imported gas, and supplemental gaseous fuels. This

report examines the natural gas production element of the

total gas demand. Domestic natural gas production supplies

the majority of the natural gas demand requirements for the

lower 48 States. The production requirement continues to

increase while drilling has remained at low levels, a fact that

this has raised some concern about the adequacy of future gas

supplies, and gas producers' ability to meet periods of peak

heating or cooling demand.

A history of natural gas production and natural gas

productive capacity at the wellhead, along with a projection

of the same, is shown in tables and figures. Data are compiled

and presented for the lower 48 States, Texas, Louisiana,

California, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Gulf of Mexico

Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), Southeast area, Rocky

Mountain area, and an eighteen State area that includes the

remaining gas producing States. The EIA generates

projections based on historical gas-well drilling and

production data from State, Federal, and private sources. In

addition to conventional gas-well gas, coalbed gas and

oil-well gas are also included. Also presented for each

category are charts showing the number of gas-well

completions by year and the percent of total wellhead

productive capacity by age. Alaska is excluded from this

report because Alaskan gas does not enter the lower 48 States

pipeline system.

Appendix A contains the model abstract. Appendix B

compares the results of previous productive capacity reports.

Appendix C contains the calculations and a table of

productive capacity per new gas-well completion. A glossary

of terms used in this report is provided to assist readers in

more fully understanding the data.

This annual gas capacity report was prepared by the Reserves

and Production Division (located in Dallas,Texas), Office of

Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration. General

information regarding preparation of the report may be

obtained from Kenneth A. Vagts, Director of the Office of Oil

and Gas (202/586--6401) or John H. Wood, Director of the

Dallas Field Office (214/720-6150).

Questions may be directed to:

• James N. Hicks

Phone 214/720-6156, FAX 214/720-6155

E--mail: jhicks@eia.doe.gov

• Hafeez Rahman

Phone 214/720-6162, FAX 214/720-6155

E--mail: hrahman@eia.doe.gov

• Velton T. Funk

Phone 214/720-6171, FAX 214/720-6155

E--mail: vfunk@eia.doe.gov

Significant contributions were made by Gary Long (rig

model). A. H. Payne, Rhonda S. Green, and LaTonya

Thomas also contributed to this publication.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas ProductiveCapacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 iii
Contents Page

Ex ecu tive Sum mary ............................................. . ix

1. In tro duc tion .............................................. . 1

2. Gas Pro duc tive Ca pac ity ......................................... 3

Gas Ca pac ity to Meet Lower 48 States Re quire ments ......................... . 3

His tori cal Data ............................................ . 6

Dry Gas Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Trends ............................... . 6

Gas Pro duc tion .......................................... 6

Gas Prices ............................................ . 6

Pro jec tions .............................................. . 6

Dry Gas Pro duc tive Ca pac ity and Pro duc tion ........................... . 6

New Well Com ple tions ...................................... . 11

Gas Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Is sues ..................................... 11

De mand ............................................. . 11

De liv er abil ity ............................................ 13

Weather's Ef fect on De liv er abil ity ................................. . 13

Gas Stor age ............................................ 13

Im ports ............................................. . 13

3. Pro duc ing Ar eas ............................................. 15

Gulf of Mex ico OCS ........................................... 16

Texas (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) ................................. . 20

Lou isi ana (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) ............................... . 25

Cali for nia (In clud ing Pa cific OCS) ................................... . 29

Kan sas ................................................. 33

New Mex ico ............................................... 37

Okla homa ................................................ 42

South east (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico) ................................. . 46

Rocky Moun tains ............................................ 51

Eight een States ............................................. 56

Ref er ences ................................................. 61

Ap pen di ces

A. Model Ab stract ............................................. 63

B. Com pari son of Pro duc tive Ca pac ity .................................. . 67

C. Dry Gas- Well Ca pac ity per New Gas- Well Com ple tion Added ...................... . 71

Glos sary ................................................... . 77

Ta bles

1. Lower 48 States Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1995 ......... . 7

2. Lower 48 States Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ... . 10

3. Gulf of Mex ico OCS Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1996 ....... . 17

4. Gulf of Mex ico OCS Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity

Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ..................................... . 18

5. Texas (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity,

1986- 1996 ............................................ . 21

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 v
Page

6. Texas (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ........................... . 22

7. Lou isi ana (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1996 ................................. . 26

8. Lou isi ana (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ........................... . 27

9. Cali for nia (In clud ing Pa cific OCS) Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1996 ................................. . 30

10. Cali for nia (In clud ing Pa cific OCS) Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ........................... . 31

11. Kan sas Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1996 ............. . 34

12. Kan sas Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ....... . 35

13. New Mex ico Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1996 ........... . 38

14. New Mex ico Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ..... . 39

15. Okla homa Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1996 ............ . 43

16. Okla homa Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ...... . 44

17. South east (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Gas Pro duc tion and

Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1996............................. . 47

18. South east (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ........................... . 48

19. Rocky Moun tains Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1996 ........ . 52

20. Rocky Moun tains Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity

Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ...................................... . 53

21. Eight een States Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1996 ......... . 57

22. Eight een States Dry Gas Pro duc tion and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity

Pro jec tions, 1997- 1998 ...................................... . 58

C1. Av er age Ini tial Flow Rates, Ul ti mate Re cov ery, and De cline Ex po nent on a Con ven tional Gas- well

Com ple tion Ba sis for 1992- 1994 ................................. . 74

Fig ures

1. Lower 48 States Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ................................ . 3

2. Lower 48 States Natu ral Gas Pro duc tion, 1986- 1995 ....................... . 4

3. Lower 48 States- Producing States and Ar eas ........................... . 4

4. Lower 48 States Pro duc tive Ca pac ity and Sup ply Sche matic ................... . 5

5. Natu ral Gas Price by Cate gory, 1986- 1995 ............................ . 8

6. Lower 48 States Gross Natu ral Gas Pro duc tion by Type, 1986- 1995 ............... . 8

7. Dry Natu ral Gas Pro duc tion from Lower 48 Pro duc ing States, 1986- 1995............. . 9

8. Lower 48 States Dry Coal bed Gas Monthly Rate and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ................................ . 9

9. Lower 48 States Gas- well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 1986- 1998 .............. . 12

10. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of Lower 48 States Gas Wells

 (Mi nus the 18 States Group) by Well Age, 1986- 1998 (Base Case) ............... . 12

11. Gulf of Mex ico OCS Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ................................ . 16

Energy Information Administration

vi Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998
Page

12. Gulf of Mex ico OCS Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 1986- 1998l ............ . 19

13. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of Gulf of Mex ico OCS Gas Wells, by Age,

1986- 1998 (Base Case) .................................... . 19

14. Texas (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ................................ . 20

15. Texas (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 1986- 1998 ... . 23

16. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of Texas (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS)

Gas Wells, by Age, 1986- 1998 (Base Case) ........................... . 23

17. Texas (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Monthly Gross Gas- Well Gas Pro duc tive Ca pac ity

and G-10 Rate, 1986- 1998 ................................... . 24

18. Lou isi ana (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and

Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ........................... . 25

19. Lou isi ana (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 

1986- 1998 ........................................... . 28

20. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of Lou isi ana (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) 

Gas Wells, by Age, 1986- 1998 (Base Case) ........................... . 28

21. Cali for nia (In clud ing Pa cific OCS) Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ................................ . 29

22. Cali for nia (In clud ing Pa cific OCS) Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 1986- 1998 ..... . 32

23. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of Cali for nia (In clud ing Pa cific OCS)

Gas Wells, by Age, 1986- 1998 (Base Case) ........................... . 32

24. Kan sas Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ..... . 33

25. Kan sas Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 1986- 1998 ................... . 36

26. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of Kan sas Gas Wells, by Age,

1986- 1998 (Base Case) .................................... . 36

27. New Mex ico Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ... . 37

28. New Mex ico Dry Coal bed Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ................................ . 40

29. New Mex ico Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 1986- 1998 ................ . 40

30. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of New Mex ico Gas Wells, by Age,

1986- 1998 (Base Case) ...................................... . 41

31. Okla homa Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998.... . 42

32. Okla homa Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 1986- 1998 ................. . 45

33. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of Okla homa Gas Wells, by Age 

1986- 1998 (Base Case) .................................... . 45

34. South east (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ................................ . 46

35. South east (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Dry Coal bed Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and

Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 1986- 1998 ........................... . 49

36. South east (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year,

1986- 1998 ........................................... . 49

37. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of South east (Ex clud ing Gulf of Mex ico OCS) 

Gas Wells, by Age, 1986- 1998 (Base Case) ........................... . 50

38. Rocky Moun tains Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 

1986- 1998 ........................................... . 51

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 vii
Page

39. Rocky Moun tains Dry Coal bed Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 

1986- 1998 ........................................... . 54

40. Rocky Moun tains Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 1986- 1998 .............. . 54

41. Per cent of To tal Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity of Rocky Moun tains Gas Wells, by Age,

1986- 1998 (Base Case) .................................... . 55

42. Eight een States Dry Gas Monthly Pro duc tion Rate and Well head Pro duc tive Ca pac ity, 

1986- 1998 ........................................... . 56

43. Eight een States Gas- Well Com ple tions Added Dur ing Year, 1986- 1998 .............. . 59

B1. Com pari sons of Dry Gas Pro duc tive Ca pac ity for the 1991,1993, 1994, 1995,

1996 and 1997 Stud ies ...................................... . 69

Energy Information Administration

viii Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998
Executive Summary

Natural gas productive capacity in the lower 48 States is

expected to be adequate to meet monthly production

requirements under normal weather conditions through 1998

for three drilling cases (Figure ES1). Capacity projections are

shown for low, base, and high drilling cases associated with

low, base, and high price scenarios from the Energy

Information Administration Short-Term Integrated

Forecasting System, August 1997 (Table ES1). Exceptionally

high peak-day or peak-week heating or cooling demand may

exceed projected productive capacity, or production may be

limited by other factors, such as pipeline availability.

Wellhead productive capacity sets the upper limit on natural

gas production. Nonetheless, the natural gas industry has

developed methods to meet peak demand, such as deliveries

from storage and peak-day shaving. These developments

have been greatly promoted at the Federal level by the

movements to lessen regulation by the Federal Energy

Regulatory Commission. Increased reliance on market forces

also encourages industry efficiency, as customers with

fuel-switching capability consume other fuels in response to

higher gas prices. Lastly, effective demand might be lowered

by reducing service to customers that have interruptible

contracts.

This is the sixth in the series of EIA reports on natural gas

wellhead productive capacity in the lower 48 States. The

series document a decline in gas productive capacity

beginning in 1986 that was clearly reversed in 1996. Natural

gas productive capacity is projected to increase in 1997 and

1998 for the low, base, and high drilling cases (Figure ES1).

This increase in surplus capacity reflects mainly new

discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf.

The major conclusions of this study are:

• Monthly wellhead productive capacity of dry gas

will be adequate to meet production requirements in

the low, base, and high cases through 1998.

• In fact, the surplus monthly productive capacity will

be higher in December 1998 than in December 1996

for the low, base, and high cases.

• In particular, the largest gas producing area, the Gulf

of Mexico Federal Offshore, is expected to meet its

Energy Information Administration/Natural Gas Productive

Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 ix

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

S urplus

His to ry Pro je c tio ns Hig h

Bas e

Low

Capacity

Pro duc tio n

Figure ES 1. Lowe r 48 S tate s Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad Produc tive

Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba se ca se only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba se d on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections.

Source s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP94 C102997. P roductive Ca pacit

Model GASCAP94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, Short-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting System, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP94

C102997.
historical market share of U.S. production and

maintain a substantial surplus productive capacity.

• Beyond 1998, a sufficient number of new wells

and/or imports must be added each year in order to

ensure an adequate gas capacity and supply.

For decades the lower 48 States natural gas productive

capacity has been adequate to meet production requirements.

In the 1970's, the capacity surplus was small because of

market structure (split between interstate and intrastate),

increasing production requirements, and insufficient drilling.

In the early 1980's lower production requirements, together

with increased drilling and tight gas price incentives, led to a

large surplus capacity. After 1986, this large surplus began to

decline as requirements for gas increased, gas prices fell

along with oil prices, and gas-well completions dropped

sharply. In late December 1989, the decline in this surplus,

accompanied by exceptionally high requirements and

temporary weather-related production losses, led to concerns

about the adequacy of productive capacity for natural gas.

These concerns were moderated by the gas system's

performance during the unusually severe winter weather in

March 1993 and January 1994.

Monthly natural gas wellhead productive capacity estimates

are for conventional and coalbed gas-well completions and

oil-well completions in the lower 48 States. The different

drilling levels assumed in three cases are functions of oil and

gas prices and gas production requirements (Table ES1).

Beginning in 1987, coalbed gas production and capacity

began a rapid increase. By the end of 1995, the coalbed gas

capacity was over 5 percent of the total gas-well gas capacity.

Coalbed gas capacity is projected to be over 4 percent of the

total at the end of 1998.

The existence of a surplus wellhead productive capacity does

not signify that the entire gas capacity could be produced and

delivered. The ability of a well to deliver gas into a pipeline

system (deliverability) is always equal to or less than

wellhead productive capacity. Deliverability is that volume

of gas that can be produced from a well, reservoir, or field

during a given period of time against a certain wellhead

back-pressure under actual reservoir conditions, taking into

account restrictions imposed by pipeline capacity, gas plant

capacity, contracts, or regulatory bodies.

At the end of 1995, deliverability into the lower-48 pipeline

system was estimated to be 53 billion cubic feet per day of

Energy Information Administration/Natural Gas Productive

x Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table ES1. Annual Wellhead Pric e, De c embe r Produc tion, and De c embe r Produc tive Capacity o f Gas ,

1986, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998

Produc tive Produc tive Produc tive

Pric e Produc tion Capacity Capacity S urplus Capacity

(nominal (billion c ubic (billion c ubic (billion c ubic Utilization

Year/Cas e dollars ) fe e t pe r day) fe e t pe r day) fe e t pe r day) (pe rc e nt)

His tory

1986 ................................................ 1.94 47.0 69.9 22.9 67.2

1995 ................................................ 1.55 50.3 63.0 12.7 79.8

1996 ................................................ 2.17 52.6 66.9 14.3 78.6

Pro je c tions

1997/Low ......................................... 2.00 53.5 72.5 19.0 73.8

1997/Ba s e ....................................... 2.30 53.5 73.7 20.2 72.6

1997/High ........................................ 2.47 53.5 74.6 21.1 71.7

1998/Low ......................................... 1.66 54.6 77.9 23.3 70.1

1998/Ba s e ....................................... 2.23 54.6 82.7 28.1 66.0

1998/High ........................................ 2.63 54.6 89.3 34.7 61.1

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Fore ca sting

System, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
dry gas, only 85 percent of the dry gas productive capacity at

the wellhead. However, there is substantial uncertainty in this

deliverability estimate. Should the surplus in wellhead

productive capacity decline, more reliance would be placed

on gas withdrawals from storage to meet peak heating and

cooling demand. Gas storage requirements can be met by

maintaining gas production that is closer to gas productive

capacity throughout the year. This would lead to smaller

seasonal variations in gas production.

Energy Information Administration/Natural Gas Productive

Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1985 Through 1997 xi
1. Introduction

Natural gas demand in the lower 48 States has been

increasing during the last few years. Natural gas-well drilling

has remained at low levels during these same years. This has

raised concern about the adequacy of future gas supplies,

especially in periods of peak heating or cooling demand.

Total demand for natural gas in the United States is met by a

combination of natural gas production, underground gas

storage, imported gas, and supplemental gaseous fuels.

Unpredictable market forces affect the number of new well

completions and recompletions, which are related to drilling

activity and rig efficiency. These forces include prices for oil

and gas, imports, gas storage, regulatory changes, market

dynamics, and total system deliverability.

This report addresses these concerns for the natural gas

production element of total demand by presenting a

historical analysis of the monthly productive capacity of

natural gas at the wellhead for 1986 through 1996 and

projecting productive capacity for 1997 and 1998. The

impact of drilling, well completions, oil and gas price

assumptions, and demand on gas productive capacity are

integrated into the capacity projections aslow, base, and high

cases to account for the unpredictable market forces.

The base case reflects what would most likely occur if

current market trends continue and drilling and production

levels perform as they have in the past. The high case reflects

an increase in the amount of drilling and favorable market

conditions, while the low case reflects a decrease in drilling

due to less favorable market conditions.

 Assumptions used in the Wellhead Productive Capacity

Model are summarized as follows:

• Wellhead gas productive capacity is a function of

drilling, which adds new capacity, and production,

which lowers existing capacity over time.

• The number of new gas-well completions is a

function of drilling, which is influenced by oil and

gas prices and production.

• Abandonment of individual conventional and

coalbed gas-well completions is captured by decline

functions for the group of wells included in a given

vintage year for each area.

• Producing characteristics of new conventional and

coalbed gas-well completions can be modeled from

the characteristics of historical completions.

• Oil-well completions are currently producing at full

capacity; therefore, the oil-well gas production rate

equals oil-well gas capacity.

• U.S. gas production requirements are allocated to the

lower 48 producing areas by month on the basis of

1995's production market share.

This report is based on of historical gas-well drilling and

production data from State, Federal, and private sources. In

addition to conventional gas-well gas, coalbed gas and

oil-well gas are also included. Natural gas production from

Alaska is excluded from this report because Alaskan gas does 

not enter the lower 48 States pipeline system.

For this report, monthly gas-well production data were as

obtained on a per completion basis for 14 States and the Gulf

of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) from Dwight's

EnergyData, Inc. (Dwight's). Dwight's data are not available

for the entire lower 48 States. Production data on a State basis

for the remaining States were obtained from EIA's Natural

Gas Monthly reports, and the number of gas-well

completions were obtained from the American Petroleum

Institute (API) drilling statistics. Rig activity data for the Rig

Model are obtained from Baker Hughes.

The method used to estimate natural gas productive capacity

follows. Details of the methodology are found in previous

reports { 1,2,3,4,5}.

By use of monthly gas-well production data, wells are

grouped by vintage (the year a well first produced) for each

State or area. A monthly peak production rate was selected

each year for every vintage in each State or area. These data

were input into the Wellhead Productive Capacity Model

(Appendix A), where equation parameters were defined and a

monthly productive capacity was estimated for each of the

vintage years. Vintage-level capacities were summed to

obtain the total capacities for each State or area. These were

assumed to be the historical productive capacities. The model

was used to project low, base and high case productive

capacities for 1997 and 1998.

The projected gas production from the model was prorated by

State and area on the basis of historical market share as

follows. If scheduled gas-well gas production was less than

gas-well gas productive capacity in a given State or area, the

production required was set equal to the scheduled

production. If the required scheduled gas-well gas production

was greater than gas productive capacity in a given State or

area, the production was set equal to productive capacity.

When a State or area did not have adequate capacity to meet

scheduled production, the unfilled capacity requirement was

prorated to other States or areas that had surplus productive

capacity. Surplus gas productive capacity occurs when the

gas productive capacity is greater than and the scheduled gas

production.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 1
2. Gas Productive Capacity

Gas Capacity to Meet

Lower 48 States Requirements

The United States has sufficient dry gas productive capacity

at the wellhead to meet forecast monthly production

requirements through 1998 (Figure 1). Any potential

shortfalls in States with low productive capacity could

probably be met by transfers from those areas with a large

surplus productive capacity, such as the Gulf of Mexico

Outer Continental Shelf (OCS).

Dry gas is the type of gas generally transported by

transmission systems and delivered to customers. Gross gas

is the full stream volume, including all natural gas plant

liquids and nonhydrocarbon gases but excluding lease

condensate. In 1995, dry gas production represented 89

percent of the gross gas production in the lower 48 States

(Figure 2).

For reporting and analysis, the lower 48 States were grouped

into 10 separate producing States or areas on the basis of gas

production volumes (Figure 3). Dry gas productive capacity

was determined for each of these 10 areas. The quarterly gas

production forecast in the Energy Information

Administration (EIA), Short-Term Integrated Forecasting

System, August 1997 {12} was used to determine the lower

48 States' production. This production was prorated into the

10 areas on the basis of their historical market shares. The

quarterly production was further prorated into monthly data.

If a given area could not meet its historical market share of

production, the unmet production requirements were

prorated to areas with surplus productive capacity. It was

assumed that the pipeline facilities exist to transport this

additional production from another supply area to its end

market. Recent historical production patterns were used to

allocate the projected lower-48 gas production requirements

for 1997 and 1998 among States and areas (Figure 4).

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions High

Bas e

Low

Capacity

Produc tion

Figure 1. Lowe r 48 S tate s Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad Produc tive

Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

S urplus
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

4

NEW

MEXICO

TEXAS

KANS AS

OKLAHOMA

SOUTHEAST

OCS

Lower 48States - Producing Statesand Areas

18 States (18)

Nonproducing (17)

RockyMtns (5)

Southeast (3)

Figure 3. Lower 48 States - Producing States and Areas

Note: The 18 States are Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. Non-producing States are Connecticut, Georgia, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. Rocky Mountain States are

Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Southeast States are Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi.

Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas.

Fig ure 2. Lower 48 S tate s Natural Gas Pro duc tio n, 1986-1995

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Trillion Cubic Feet

Re pre s s uring,

Vented and Flared,

and Nonhydroc arbons

Gro s s

Marke te d We t

Shrinkage for

Liquids Remo val

Dry

S ource: Ene rgy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual, DOE/EIA-0131, 1986-1995.

CALIFORNIA

ROCKY MOUNTAINS

LOUISIANA
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 5

Figure 4. Lower 48 S tate s Produc tive Capacity and Supply Schematic

Lowe r 48 State s Dry Ga s

Dry Ga s P roductive Ca pacity

P roduction Dema nd by Area

P rorate Dema nd Lowe r 48 State s

Among Area s Dry Ga s

P roductive Ca pacity

Ca pacity No P rorate Dema nd not Met

S urplus to Area s with

All Area s S urplus Ca pacity

Flow Ca pacity

by Area

Gathe ring S ystems

Pla nts

Pipeline s

Unde rground Imports a nd

Stora ge S uppleme ntal

Ga s e ous Fuels

Lowe r 48 State s

Dry Ga s

Delive rie s

S ource: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s.
Historical Data

Dry Gas Productive Capacity Trends

Historical monthly gas production and productive capacity

for the lower 48 States for the months of January, June, and

December are presented in Table 1.1 January and December

represent the typical peak winter months, and June represents

a non-heating season.

Dry gas productive capacity in the lower 48 States

substantially exceeded production throughout the 1980's.

The lower 48 States' surplus capacity was more than 20

billion cubic feet per day through December 1986. However,

gas capacity began declining in 1986 as drilling and new well

completions rapidly declined. In 1996, surplus capacity was

14.4 billion cubic feet per day in December of that year.

The rapid decline in drilling and new well completions was

caused by reduced natural gas prices. The wellhead price for

natural gas shows a declining trend in 1986 and most of 1987

and then begins fluctuating seasonally after 1987 (Figure 5).

Gas Production

Total gross gas production (composed of gas-well and

oil-well gas) from 1986 through 1995 is shown in Figure 6.

Gas production from oil wells was stable over this time

period, although oil production declined. Increases in

producing gas-oil ratios roughly compensated for the

declines in oil production. In 1995, gas production from oil

wells was 16 percent of total gas production in the lower 48

States. If oil production declines in 1996, 1997, and 1998, as

expected, gas production from oil wells will also decline if

the producing gas-oil ratio stays at its 1995 level. The share

of total gross production from gas wells increased from 79

percent in 1986 to 84 percent in 1995.

The dry natural gas production contribution from the major

gas-producing States and areas is shown by Figure 7. The

market share of production among States has been fairly

stable from 1986 through 1995. The two largest

gas-producing areas are the Gulf of Mexico OCS and Texas.

Together these areas produce over one-half of the dry gas in

the lower 48 States. The Gulf of Mexico has made the largest

contribution to meeting major seasonal swings in demand.

Other significant natural gas-producing States include

Oklahoma, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Kansas. Chapter 3

reviews State and area gas production in detail.

Monthly gas production varies seasonally. Normally,

production is highest in the months of January or February

(because of high heating demand), substantially lower in

June, and relatively higher in December. However, the

minimum monthly production rate for a given year may fall

in other months, such as September, when there is neither a

large cooling nor heating demand.

Coalbed gas was treated separately in this report for New

Mexico and the Southeast and Rocky Mountains areas

(Figure 8). These are the three major coalbed gas-producing

areas. Coalbed gas production was 5 percent of the lower-48

total gas produced in 1995.

Gas Prices

The average real wellhead value of natural gas peaked in

1983 at $3.75 (in constant 1995 dollars) per thousand cubic

feet{13}, dropped sharply in 1986, and continued to decline

to $1.76 per thousand cubic feet in 1991 (a 52 percent drop

over eight years). The average price in 1995 is $1.55.{14}

For comparison, real domestic crude oil prices dropped from

$38.52 per barrel in 1983 to $14.62 in 1995, a 62 percent

drop.{13} Given the lower prices and consequent decrease in

drilling, it is understandable that wellhead productive

capacity declined to values closer to gas production

requirements from 1986 through 1995.

Projections

Dry Gas Productive Capacity and

Production

EIA projects the natural gas wellhead productive capacity for

the lower 48 States by using the Wellhead Productive

Capacity Model. For a description of the model, see

Appendix A. The model estimates the last year of historical

production and productive capacity (because the data is still

preliminary) and generates a 2-year projection of production

and wellhead gas capacity. To account for unpredictable

market forces and changing drilling activity levels, gas

productive capacity projections are formulated for low, base,

and high cases. The base case reflects what would most

likely occur if current market trends continue and drilling and

production levels continue to perform as they have

performed in the past. The high case reflects an increase in

the amount of drilling under more favorable market

conditions, while the low case reflects a decrease under less

favorable conditions. The model results are listed in Table 2.

In December 1996, the wellhead productive capacity of the

lower 48 States was 66.9 billion cubic feet per day of dry

natural gas. For the lower 48 States, the model projects the

following:

• In the low case projection, dry gas productive

capacity will increase 16 percent to 77.9 billion

cubic feet per day in December 1998.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

6

1

Production and capacity for all 12 months can be obtained from the authors.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 7

Table 1. Lower 48 States Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity, 1986-1996

(Billion Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 49.3 62.7 9.8 72.6 23.3 67.9 

Jun-86 40.3 61.3 9.0 70.3 30.0 57.3 

Dec-86 47.0 61.1 8.8 69.9 22.9 67.2 

Jan-87 47.9 60.0 9.0 69.0 21.1 69.4 

Jun-87 41.8 58.1 8.8 66.9 25.1 62.5 

Dec-87 49.0 57.8 8.7 66.5 17.5 73.7 

Jan-88 50.1 57.5 8.8 66.3 16.2 75.6 

Jun-88 43.2 55.8 8.8 64.6 21.4 66.9 

Dec-88 48.4 55.7 8.5 64.3 15.9 75.3 

Jan-89 49.1 55.8 8.8 64.6 15.5 76.0 

Jun-89 45.1 55.4 8.4 63.8 18.7 70.7 

Dec-89 47.8 57.1 7.9 65.0 17.2 73.5 

Jan-90 51.1 57.0 8.7 65.7 14.6 77.8 

Jun-90 46.0 56.6 8.4 65.0 19.0 70.8 

Dec-90 50.1 57.3 8.4 65.7 15.6 76.3 

Jan-91 51.4 57.2 8.4 65.6 14.2 78.4 

Jun-91 45.2 55.7 8.3 64.0 18.8 70.6 

Dec-91 49.9 56.0 8.3 64.3 14.4 77.6 

Jan-92 50.3 55.3 8.6 63.9 13.6 78.7 

Jun-92 47.2 53.9 8.4 62.3 15.1 75.8 

Dec-92 49.4 53.6 8.2 61.9 12.5 79.8 

Jan-93 49.8 53.5 8.1 61.7 11.9 80.7 

Jun-93 47.9 53.5 8.1 61.6 13.7 77.8 

Dec-93 49.8 54.6 7.9 62.6 12.8 79.6 

Jan-94 51.2 54.7 8.0 62.8 11.6 81.5 

Jun-94 49.8 55.2 7.9 63.1 13.3 78.9 

Dec-94 51.1 56.1 8.0 64.1 13.0 79.7 

Jan-95 51.1 55.2 7.8 63.0 11.9 81.1 

Jun-95 49.9 55.1 7.8 62.9 13.0 79.3 

Dec-95 50.3 55.3 7.7 63.0 12.7 79.8 

Jan-96 51.8 54.0 7.7 61.7 9.9 84.0 

Jun-96 50.2 55.6 7.7 63.3 13.1 79.3 

Dec-96 52.6 59.1 7.8 66.9 14.3 78.6 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.;

and Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Nominal Dollars per Mcf

Figure 5. Natural Gas Pric e by Cate g ory, 1986-1995

S ource: Ene rgy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130(97/04)

Re s ide ntial Pric e

Comme rcial Pric e

Indus trial Pric e

Ele c tric Utilitie s

Pric e

Wellhe ad Pric e

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Trillion Cubic Feet

To tal Gas

Gas -Well Gas

Oil-Well Gas

S ource: Ene rgy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual, DOE/EIA-0131, 1986-1995

.

Figure 6. Lowe r 48 S tate s Gro s s Natural Gas Produc tion by Type, 1986-1995
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 9

0

1

2

3

4

5

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Trillion Cubic Feet

Note: State production for Te xa s a nd Louisia na doe s not include Gulf of Me xico OCS production

S ource s: Ene rgy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual, DOE/EIA-0131, 1986-1995. Data for Te xa s, Louisia na, a nd Gulf of Me xico OCS a re

from Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s.

Figure 7. Dry Natural Gas Produc tion from Lowe r 48 Producing S tate s , 1986-1995

Gulf o f Me xic o Te xas

All Othe rs

Oklahoma

Louis iana

Roc ky Mountains

New Me xic o

Kans as

0

1

2

3

4

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

Capacity

Produc tion

Figure 8. Lowe r 48 S tate s Dry Co albe d Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad

Produc tive Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction proje ction plotte d for ba s e ca s e only.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd

Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roductive Ca pa city: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P roje ctions: Ene rgy Information

Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Fore ca sting S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

10 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 2. Lower 48 States Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity Projections,

1997-1998 (Billion Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 51.8 59.2 7.8 67.1 15.3 77.2 

Jun-97 50.7 61.4 7.7 69.1 18.4 73.4 

Dec-97 53.5 65.2 7.3 72.5 19.0 73.8 

Jan-98 52.9 65.4 7.3 72.7 19.8 72.8 

Jun-98 51.8 67.3 7.1 74.4 22.6 69.6 

Dec-98 54.6 71.0 7.0 77.9 23.3 70.1 

Base Case Projection

Jan-97 51.8 59.2 7.8 67.1 15.3 77.2 

Jun-97 50.7 61.4 7.7 69.1 18.4 73.4 

Dec-97 53.5 66.1 7.6 73.7 20.2 72.6 

Jan-98 52.9 66.4 7.6 74.1 21.2 71.4 

Jun-98 51.8 69.7 7.6 77.3 25.5 67.0 

Dec-98 54.6 75.3 7.5 82.7 28.1 66.0 

High Case Projection

Jan-97 51.8 59.2 7.8 67.1 15.3 77.2 

Jun-97 50.7 61.4 7.7 69.1 18.4 73.4 

Dec-97 53.5 66.7 7.9 74.6 21.1 71.7 

Jan-98 52.9 67.3 7.9 75.2 22.3 70.3 

Jun-98 51.8 72.3 7.9 80.2 28.4 64.6 

Dec-98 54.6 81.4 8.0 89.3 34.7 61.1 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
• In the base case projection, productive capacity

will increase 24 percent to 82.7 billion cubic feet

per day in December 1998.

• In the high case, productive capacity increases

33 percent from the December 1996 level,

reaching 87.3 billion cubic feet per day in

December 1998.

For surplus capacity in the lower 48 States:

• In the low case, the surplus capacity increases

from 14.4 billion cubic feet per day in December

1996 to 23.3 billion cubic feet per day in

December 1998. 

• In the base case, surplus capacity increases to

28.2 billion cubic feet per day in December

1998.

• In the high case, the surplus capacity increases

to 34.8 billion cubic feet per day in December

1998.

Gas productive capacity should be adequate to meet the

projected monthly gas production requirements of the lower

48 States through December 1998, even in the low case.

New Well Completions

Gas productive capacity is increased by new gas-well

completions. If there had been no new gas-well completions

projected after 1995, the surplus capacity would have gone

from 14.4 billion cubic feet per day in December 1996 to

zero by December 1997. With no new completions,

productive capacity would not have been adequate to meet

the forecast production requirements. Gas-well completions

must be added continuously to sustain an adequate

productive capacity.

To project gas productive capacity, a projection of new

gas-well completions is required. The projection of new well

completions is based on a projection of rigs running and an

estimate of completions per rig. Forecasts of the total drilling

rigs were obtained from the EIA Drilling Rig Model. This

model generates monthly rig counts on the basis of oil and

gas revenues which are derived from production and price

data appearing in the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook

(STEO). The Drilling Rig Model was described in previous

reports{1,2,3,4,5}.

Gas-well completions added for the 2-year period 1997

through 1998 are estimated to be 34,939 for the low case,

39,342 for the base case, and 46,039 for the high case

(Figure 9). The larger number of completions yields a dry gas 

productive capacity for the high case in December 1998 that

is 89.3 billion cubic feet per day, (Table 2) or 8 percent

higher than the 82.7 billion cubic feet per day in the base

case. Gas production requirements were assumed to be the

same in both cases. A new gas-well completion is estimated

to add about one million cubic feet per day of capacity

(Appendix C).

For the low, base, and high cases, the corresponding gas-well

completions were estimated primarily as a function of gas

price and production. The 1998 gas prices for the three cases

were respectively $1.66, $2.23, and $2.63 per thousand cubic

feet, as shown in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting

System, August 1997{12}. The actual gas prices were $1.55

per thousand cubic feet in 1995{14} and $2.17 in 1996{12}.

The newer gas-well completions contribute most of the

productive capacity in the lower 48 States. Wells less than

three years old contributed 49 percent of the productive

capacity in the lower 48 States in December 1996. Wells less

than 2 years old provided 40 percent, while wells completed

that year provided 28 percent (Figure 10).

Gas Productive Capacity Issues

Demand

Peak-day demand may be twice the annual average-day

demand. Peak-day demand usually occurs in December,

January, or February during very cold weather. The cold

weather, while increasing gas demand, may also decrease

potential supply because of weather-related production and

transportation problems.

2

Peak-day demand cannot be met by increasing gas

production at the wellhead and should not be expected to be

met by production in the future. To better serve its

customers, the natural gas industry has developed methods to

meet peak demand, such as delivery from gas storage

facilities and peak shaving facilities.

It could be argued that in periods of high gas demand, price

increases at the wellhead could both increase supply

quantities and decrease consumption until they balance. Over

a sufficient period of time this is true. However, in the very

short term (days), average wellhead prices are relatively

unresponsive to demand, although, commercial, industrial,

and electric utility gas prices normally increase during

periods of high seasonal demand (Figure 5). The vast

majority of gas is covered by 30-day or longer contracts.

Therefore, if there is a sudden large increase in gas demand,

there is not an accompanying sudden, large increase in the

average price of gas at the wellhead. However, small

volumes of gas may sell at very high prices on the spot

market.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 11

2

For more information about this subject see Energy Information Administration, Service Report SR/OG/91-01 and Oil and Gas Journal,

March 5, 1990, pp.17-20.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

12

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His to ry Pro je c tions

Figure 9. Lowe r 48 S tate s Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During Ye ar, 1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on EIA's Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts.

Completions include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 10. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f Lowe r 48 S tate s Gas Wells

(Minus the 18 S tate s Group) by Well Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Effective gas demand in peak periods is typically lowered by

reducing deliveries to customers with interruptible contracts

or by customers with fuel-switching capability responding to

higher gas prices by switching to another fuel. A price

increase would have little impact on reducing residential gas

requirements. It is residential heating or cooling demand that

is most likely to have a sudden upward surge related to

weather. Residential consumers used 5.2 times as much gas

in December 1994 as they did in August 1994 and 6.6 times

as much gas in December 1995 as they did in August

1995.{15}

Because cost-of-service pricing lowers the unit cost of gas

during periods when large volumes are being delivered, the

residential cost of gas per thousand cubic feet actually drops

in December, while the wellhead price of gas increases.{15}

Figure 5 shows the relationship of wellhead price to

residential, commercial, industrial, and electric utility prices

for 1986 through 1995. Therefore, small increases in the

average price of natural gas at the wellhead do not effectively

dampen weather-related residential gas requirements in the

short term.

Deliverability

The existence of a high gas productive capacity at the

wellhead does not mean that it could actually be produced

and delivered. Deliverability is always equal to or less than

wellhead productive capacity. Deliverability takes into

account restrictions imposed by pipeline capacity, contract,

or regulatory bodies. Even with a large surplus dry gas

productive capacity, there can be Short-Term regional gas

supply problems.

In order to meet peak-month or peak-day demand, the

pipeline system must also have adequate deliverability to the

final destination. Pipeline systems must have adequate

diameters, properly spaced compressors, and adequate

interconnections between pipelines. Gas pipeline systems

must be optimized to transport gas efficiently from any well

to wherever in the lower 48 States where the need might

arise.

Productive capacity and deliverability can be compared by

using the data collected by the Natural Gas Supply

Association (NGSA) in its NGSA Survey on 1995 Natural

Gas Field Deliveries & Productive Capacity.{16} The data

on connected gas-well capacity as of January 1, 1996, which

is equivalent to deliverability into the pipeline system, were

collected on an operator basis for seven lower-48 regions.

The survey covered 83 percent of the production for the

Offshore Gulf Coast, the highest for any region in the survey.

The ratio of the NGSA 1995 connected gas field capacity to

the annual 1995 field deliveries was 1.07. In other words,

deliverability was 7 percent higher than annual production.

The equivalent deliverability for all Offshore Gulf Coast

operators was 15 billion cubic feet per day if the NGSA

surveyed operators are representative of all operators in this

region.

For the month of January 1996, it was estimated that 85

percent of the productive capacity at the wellhead could be

delivered into the pipeline system. This was obtained by

dividing the January 1996 deliverability of 53 billion cubic

feet per day (determined by scaling up the NGSA

connected-gas-well capacity){16} by the January 1996 dry

productive capacity at the wellhead of 62 million cubic feet

per day.

During the 1980's and most recently with FERC Order 636 in

1992, major changes have occurred in regulations, contracts,

interconnections between trunklines, access to

transportation, and markets. These changes have introduced

a much greater degree of flexibility and responsiveness in the

natural gas industry. This flexibility makes it likely that a

higher percentage of the productive capacity can be

delivered. More gas can get from where it is produced to

where it is needed. However, in some cases, pipeline capacity

may limit gas deliverability.

Weather's Effect on Deliverability

One problem that is associated with the handling of natural

gas is the phenomenon of a production line or well “freezing

up.” This problem occurs when water vapor and hydrocarbon

vapors combine to form snow-like substances, called

hydrates. Under suitable pressure conditions, hydrates may

be formed at temperatures well above the freezing point of

water. One of the problems in handling natural gas is the

prevention of the formation of hydrates and their removal

once formed.

Interruptions in regional supply can cause a peak production

requirement in other areas. For example, storms in the Gulf

of Mexico have damaged producing sites and abruptly shut in

wells. Needed gas was supplied to consumers from other

areas or from storage during part of this time.

Gas Storage

Gas storage is a vital part of the natural gas industry. Stored

gas provides a source for reliable deliveries during periods of

heavy demand. Storage also enables greater system

efficiency by allowing more stable production and

transmission flows.

Sufficient dry gas productive capacity will exist during the

years 1997 through 1998 to increase the underground natural

gas storage inventory needed. Gas storage requirements can

be met by maintaining gas production closer to gas

productive-capacity throughout the year. Increased use of

storage reduces the need for excess productive capacity, thus

promoting improved economic efficiency in production.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 13
Imports

Imports have become an increasingly important part of the

domestic gas supply picture. Reliance on imported gas has

more than doubled in less than a decade. In 1986, net imports

made up 4 percent (689 billion cubic feet) of the total gas

demand requirements. In 1995, net imports supplied 12

percent (2,687 billion cubic feet) of the total gas demand

requirements.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

14
3. Producing Areas

This section of the report details the natural gas wellhead

productive capacity by State or area where Dwight's gas-well

gas production data are available. From these data, individual

studies are made for each of six States: California, Kansas,

Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and the Gulf of

Mexico Federal Offshore Outer Continental Shelf (OCS).

The remaining Dwight's data are combined into 3 groups of

States (Figure 3). Five states are grouped together as Rocky

Mountains: Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and

Wyoming. Three states are combined as the Southeast group,

consisting of Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi. The third

group is made up of 18 States: 3 States with Dwight's

data–Michigan, Nebraska, and South Dakota and

15–Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland,

Missouri, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania,

Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia- for which no

Dwight's data are available.

Each State or group of States has its own unique, initially

scheduled monthly gas production rate for January 1996 set

to the same values for the low, base, and high cases.

However, the actual production rate in an area will be less

than its initially scheduled production rate if its scheduled

production rate exceeds its gas productive capacity.

Scheduled gas production is the production demand for the

United States taken from the Energy Information

Administration's Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997, {12} and prorated among the States and areas.

For each State or area where the scheduled production

exceeds the gas productive capacity, the deficit capacity (the

negative difference between capacity and scheduled

production) is rescheduled to States and areas with surplus

capacity. The production for these deficit capacity States will

be greater in the base and high cases because there will be

more well completions. The larger number of well

completions adds more capacity and reduces or eliminates

the deficit capacity.

For States or areas where the scheduled production does not

exceed capacity, the surplus capacity (the positive difference

between capacity and scheduled production) is used to

replace the deficit capacity of the States and areas with deficit

capacities. For these surplus capacity States, the production

rate will be highest in the low case because there is a larger

deficit capacity to make up.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 15
Gulf of Mexico OCS

The Gulf of Mexico OCS is a prolific natural gas producer

with large seasonal variations in producing rate. In 1995,

more than a quarter of the lower 48 States' dry gas production

came from this area. Mobile Block 823 producing 81 Bcf,

was the largest OCS natural gas producer in 1995. Garden

Banks 236 was the second largest producer making 76 Bcf,

and Matagorda Island 623, the third largest producer,

producing 70 Bcf.

Surplus capacity was adequate from 1986 through 1996.

Future projections show increases for the low, base, and high

cases.

Figure 11 shows the dry gas production rate and wellhead

productive capacity from 1986 through 1996, with

projections through 1998. The January, June, and December

historical production rates and capacities are presented in

Table 3. Dry gas production and wellhead productive

capacity projections are shown by Table 4.

Figure 12 shows the number of gas-well completions added

during each year from 1986 through 1996 and projected

through 1998. There is an increase in the Gulf of Mexico

completions for 1997 and 1998.

The initial flow rate per well completion for the Gulf of

Mexico is about eight million cubic feet per day (Appendix

C). Most reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico have high

permeabilities and are water-drive reservoirs. This means

that the reservoir can sustain a high flow rate throughout

most of its producing life. However, the recovery efficiency

is generally less than the recovery efficiency for reservoirs

with other types of drive mechanisms.

Figure 13 shows the percent of the Gulf of Mexico OCS

gas-well productive capacity in December of each year by

age of the well. gas-well completions that have been

producing for less than one year contributed from 18 to 44

percent of the productive capacity from 1986 through 1996.

The gap between the capacity and production curves begins

to widen in 1996 and continues through 1997. Several deep

water projects are scheduled to commence production in

1997 and 1998.

The OCS area provides surplus capacity to meet major

seasonal swings in the lower 48 States gas requirements. The

future for this area to meet this role looks bright, especially if

successful deep water projects continue to add adequate

gas-well completions.

Energy Information Administration

16 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low

Capacity

Produc tion

S urplus

Figure 11. Gulf o f Me xic o OCS Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad Produc tive

Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 17

Table 3. Gulf of Mexico OCS Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity, 1986-1996

(Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 13,210 18,478 1,585 20,063 6,853 65.8

Jun-86 9,878 17,706 1,460 19,166 9,288 51.5

Dec-86 12,845 18,038 1,489 19,527 6,682 65.8

Jan-87 13,624 18,006 1,416 19,422 5,798 70.1

Jun-87 11,534 17,068 1,317 18,385 6,851 62.7

Dec-87 14,118 17,264 1,252 18,516 4,398 76.2

Jan-88 14,481 17,446 1,254 18,700 4,219 77.4 

Jun-88 11,747 16,319 1,309 17,628 5,881 66.6 

Dec-88 13,654 16,607 1,314 17,921 4,267 76.2 

Jan-89 13,441 16,557 1,286 17,843 4,402 75.3 

Jun-89 12,535 16,690 1,224 17,914 5,379 70.0 

Dec-89 13,346 17,825 1,085 18,910 5,564 70.6 

Jan-90 14,792 17,516 1,220 18,736 3,944 78.9 

Jun-90 12,831 17,420 1,184 18,604 5,773 69.0 

Dec-90 14,144 17,730 1,228 18,958 4,814 74.6 

Jan-91 14,698 17,554 1,301 18,855 4,157 78.0 

Jun-91 11,845 16,645 1,314 17,959 6,114 66.0 

Dec-91 13,676 16,917 1,434 18,351 4,675 74.5 

Jan-92 13,746 16,344 1,325 17,669 3,923 77.8 

Jun-92 12,786 15,546 1,297 16,843 4,057 75.9 

Dec-92 12,717 15,134 1,233 16,367 3,650 77.7 

Jan-93 12,919 14,677 1,353 16,030 3,111 80.6 

Jun-93 12,376 14,395 1,377 15,772 3,396 78.5 

Dec-93 12,948 15,397 1,378 16,775 3,827 77.2 

Jan-94 13,414 14,989 1,538 16,527 3,113 81.2 

Jun-94 13,388 15,180 1,548 16,728 3,340 80.0 

Dec-94 13,409 15,709 1,632 17,341 3,932 77.3 

Jan-95 13,530 15,266 1,575 16,841 3,311 80.3 

Jun-95 13,551 15,595 1,662 17,257 3,706 78.5 

Dec-95 13,233 15,704 1,692 17,396 4,163 76.1 

Jan-96 13,843 15,150 1,718 16,868 3,025 82.1 

Jun-96 13,718 16,431 1,698 18,129 4,411 75.7 

Dec-96 13,614 18,691 1,889 20,580 6,966 66.2 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.; and

Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

18 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 4. Gulf of Mexico OCS Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity Projections,

1997-1998 (Billion Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projections

Jan-97 13,874 18,889 1,916 20,805 6,931 66.7 

Jun-97 13,848 20,135 1,902 22,037 8,189 62.8 

Dec-97 13,806 22,045 1,889 23,934 10,128 57.7 

Jan-98 14,176 22,210 1,889 24,099 9,923 58.8 

Jun-98 14,177 23,315 1,907 25,222 11,045 56.2 

Dec-98 14,032 25,553 1,874 27,427 13,395 51.2 

Base Case Projections

Jan-97 13,874 18,889 1,916 20,805 6,931 66.7 

Jun-97 13,848 20,135 1,902 22,037 8,189 62.8 

Dec-97 13,773 22,510 1,939 24,449 10,676 56.3 

Jan-98 14,169 22,738 1,943 24,681 10,512 57.4 

Jun-98 14,174 24,251 1,965 26,216 12,042 54.1 

Dec-98 13,983 27,021 1,955 28,976 14,993 48.3 

High Case Projections

Jan-97 13,874 18,889 1,916 20,805 6,931 66.7 

Jun-97 13,848 20,135 1,902 22,037 8,189 62.8 

Dec-97 13,753 22,969 1,992 24,961 11,208 55.1 

Jan-98 14,162 23,274 2,001 25,275 11,113 56.0 

Jun-98 14,174 25,189 2,025 27,214 13,040 52.1 

Dec-98 13,969 28,619 2,040 30,659 16,690 45.6 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 13. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f Gulf o f Me xic o OCS Gas

Wells by Well Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His to ry Pro je c tions

Figure 12. Gulf o f Me xic o OCS Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During Ye ar, 1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba se d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Texas (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS)

Texas gas production amounted to over a quarter of the lower

48 States dry gas production in 1995. Gas-producing zones

range from high permeability, water-drive formations to low

permeability “Tight Gas” reservoirs. The three largest

gas-producing areas in 1995 in the State were the Giddings

(234 Bcf) the Carthage (189 Bcf), and the Panhandle West

(154 Bcf) fields.

Figure 14 shows the dry gas production rate and wellhead

productive capacity from 1986 through 1996, with

projections through 1998. The January, June, and December

production rates and capacities are presented in Tables 5 and

6. Productive capacity began a very pronounced downturn

beginning in 1986. After 1986, surplus capacity began to

diminish (Figure 14). Consequently, capacity utilization

began to increase after 1986 (Table 5). The surplus capacity

is projected to increase in 1997 and 1998. Compared with the

OCS, surplus capacities have not shown large increases in

June. This reflects the fact that production requirements for

Texas gas are less seasonal than for the Gulf of Mexico OCS.

Figure 15 shows the number of producing gas-well

completions added during each year from 1986 through

1998. The number of gas-well completions are projected to

increase through 1998.

Initial flow rates for Texas wells range from high to relatively

low. The average initial flow rate per well in Texas has been

about one million cubic feet per day for the last few years

(Table C1).

Figure 16 shows the percent of the Texas gas-well gas

productive capacity for each year by age of well. Well

completions that have been producing gas for less than one

year contributed 30 percent of the gas-well gas productive

capacity in 1996.

Figure 17 shows a comparison of the maximum daily rate

monthly determined by the Texas Railroad Commission

(TRC) and the gross gas-well gas productive capacity

estimated in this study. The magnitude of the maximum daily

rate as determined by TRC from the G-10 tests is higher than

the productive capacity estimated in this report.

Operators of Texas gas wells are required to make a

production test of each gas well semi-annually and report the

test on Form G-10 unless the well is exempt from testing.

Energy Information Administration

20 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

5

10

15

20

25

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low

Capacity

Produc tion

S urplus

Figure 14. Te xas (Excluding Gulf o f Me xic o OCS ) Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and

Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

System, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 21

Table 5. Texas (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS) Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive

Capacity, 1986-1996 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 14,148 16,666 3,509 20,175 6,027 70.1 

Jun-86 12,749 16,258 3,267 19,525 6,776 65.3 

Dec-86 13,007 15,640 3,146 18,786 5,779 69.2 

Jan-87 13,217 15,247 3,140 18,387 5,170 71.9 

Jun-87 11,918 14,795 3,033 17,828 5,910 66.8 

Dec-87 13,196 14,588 3,025 17,613 4,417 74.9 

Jan-88 13,542 14,248 3,150 17,398 3,856 77.8 

Jun-88 12,234 13,913 3,074 16,987 4,753 72.0 

Dec-88 13,000 13,679 2,993 16,672 3,672 78.0 

Jan-89 12,969 13,459 3,080 16,539 3,570 78.4 

Jun-89 12,247 13,131 2,954 16,085 3,838 76.1 

Dec-89 12,564 13,502 2,833 16,335 3,771 76.9 

Jan-90 13,095 13,459 2,963 16,422 3,327 79.7 

Jun-90 12,292 13,324 2,888 16,212 3,920 75.8 

Dec-90 12,836 13,290 2,982 16,272 3,436 78.9 

Jan-91 13,040 13,207 2,951 16,158 3,118 80.7 

Jun-91 12,105 13,021 2,839 15,860 3,755 76.3 

Dec-91 12,778 12,787 2,809 15,596 2,818 81.9 

Jan-92 12,668 12,492 2,926 15,418 2,750 82.2 

Jun-92 11,913 12,255 2,826 15,081 3,168 79.0 

Dec-92 12,476 12,440 2,811 15,251 2,775 81.8 

Jan-93 12,675 12,227 3,038 15,265 2,590 83.0 

Jun-93 12,562 12,521 2,945 15,466 2,904 81.2 

Dec-93 12,657 12,458 2,900 15,358 2,701 82.4 

Jan-94 12,627 12,389 2,851 15,240 2,613 82.9 

Jun-94 12,794 12,751 2,751 15,502 2,708 82.5 

Dec-94 13,067 12,997 2,712 15,709 2,642 83.2 

Jan-95 12,824 12,817 2,664 15,481 2,657 82.8 

Jun-95 12,749 12,773 2,559 15,332 2,583 83.2 

Dec-95 12,814 12,744 2,544 15,288 2,474 83.8 

Jan-96 12,859 12,463 2,537 15,000 2,141 85.7 

Jun-96 13,121 12,718 2,491 15,209 2,088 86.3 

Dec-96 13,002 13,484 2,475 15,959 2,957 81.5 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.;

and Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

22 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 6. Texas (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS) Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive

Capacity Projections, 1997-1998 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 12,859 13,508 2,464 15,972 3,113 80.5 

Jun-97 13,232 13,839 2,423 16,262 3,030 81.4 

Dec-97 13,160 15,004 2,245 17,249 4,089 76.3 

Jan-98 13,146 15,101 2,232 17,333 4,187 75.8 

Jun-98 13,542 15,502 2,168 17,670 4,128 76.6 

Dec-98 13,405 16,417 2,100 18,517 5,112 72.4 

Base Case Projections

Jan-97 12,859 13,508 2,464 15,972 3,113 80.5 

Jun-97 13,232 13,839 2,423 16,262 3,030 81.4 

Dec-97 13,129 15,231 2,361 17,592 4,463 74.6 

Jan-98 13,139 15,387 2,353 17,740 4,601 74.1 

Jun-98 13,539 16,287 2,315 18,602 5,063 72.8 

Dec-98 13,358 17,945 2,277 20,222 6,864 66.1 

High Case Projections

Jan-97 12,859 13,508 2,464 15,972 3,113 80.5 

Jun-97 13,232 13,839 2,423 16,262 3,030 81.4 

Dec-97 13,110 15,322 2,465 17,787 4,677 73.7 

Jan-98 13,133 15,542 2,461 18,003 4,870 72.9 

Jun-98 13,539 17,149 2,451 19,600 6,061 69.1 

Dec-98 13,345 20,359 2,449 22,808 9,463 58.5 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 23

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His to ry Pro je c tions

Figure 15. Te xas (Excluding Gulf o f Me xic o OCS ) Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During Ye ar,

1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 16. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f Te xas (Excluding Gulf o f

Me xic o OCS ) Gas Wells by Well Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

24 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

Capacity Pro je c te d

Capacity

Figure 17. Te xas (Excluding Gulf o f Me xic o OCS ) Monthly Gro s s Gas -Well Gas Produc tive

Capacity and G-10 Rate, 1986-1998

Note: Ca pa city proje ction plotte d for ba s e ca s e only.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Railroa d

Commis sion of Te xa s. P roje ctions: Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

G-10 Rate

All gas wells producing less than 100 thousand cubic feet

per day are automatically exempt. Each month, the TRC

determines statewide gas well deliverability by summing

the latest available G-10 test rates. However, the TRC does

not necessarily expect that this deliverability (sum of G-10

test rates) can be achieved. This is true for the following

reasons:

The daily rate reported on a Form G-10 is of 72 hours

duration, and that rate cannot be sustained for a month by

most gas-well completions.

If all gas-well completions were produced at the daily rate

shown on a G-10, increased back-pressures would result,

prohibiting gas from many wells from getting into the

pipeline system.

The daily rates reported on the form G-10 reflects the ability

of gas-well completions to produce at the time they are

tested. However, each TRC deliverability estimate (sum of

latest G-10 tests) contains well test data that may be as much

as five or more months old.

Capacity estimated in this report is the daily rate that can be

sustained for a month. Rates reported on the G-10 tests are

required to be sustainable for only 72 hours.

Both, however, exhibit a similar downward trend. Capacity

is projected to increase during 1997 and 1998. Data from the

G-10 tests are plotted through June 1997.
Louisiana (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS)

Louisiana has been a large producer of natural gas for many

years. Gas produced comes from high permeability,

water-drive, deep and sometimes over-pressured formations

on the Gulf Coast as well as from low permeability and

relatively shallow reservoirs in North Louisiana. In 1995, the

three fields producing the largest volume of natural gas in the

State were the Fresh Water Bayou (70 Bcf), Chalkey (51

Bcf), and Lake Arthur South (51 Bcf) fields, according to

Dwight's data. In 1995, almost 9 percent of the total dry gas

produced in the lower 48 States came from Louisiana.{14}

The following pages include Tables 7 and 8 and Figures 18

through 20, which provide historical and projected

production and productive capacity, gas-well completions

added, and percent of capacity by well age. These data

exclude the OCS.

Production and productive capacity are equal with no surplus

in November and December 1996. There is no surplus in

December 1997 for any of the three cases. In December

1998, there is no surplus for the low case. The production is

plotted for the base case only in Figure 18.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low

Capacity

Produc tion

Surplus

Figure 18. Louis iana (Excluding Gulf o f Me xic o OCS ) Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate

and Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

System, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

26 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 7. Louisiana (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS) Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive

Capacity, 1986-1996 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 5,350 6,939 585 7,524 2,174 71.1 

Jun-86 4,746 6,722 538 7,260 2,514 65.4 

Dec-86 4,946 6,530 579 7,109 2,163 69.6 

Jan-87 4,939 6,297 583 6,880 1,941 71.8 

Jun-87 4,524 6,056 570 6,626 2,102 68.3 

Dec-87 4,764 5,920 573 6,493 1,729 73.4 

Jan-88 4,773 5,886 569 6,455 1,682 73.9 

Jun-88 4,598 5,773 546 6,319 1,721 72.8 

Dec-88 4,798 5,789 540 6,329 1,531 75.8 

Jan-89 4,738 5,667 502 6,169 1,431 76.8 

Jun-89 4,562 5,680 483 6,163 1,601 74.0 

Dec-89 4,322 5,810 420 6,230 1,908 69.4 

Jan-90 4,782 5,774 440 6,214 1,432 77.0 

Jun-90 4,488 5,650 432 6,082 1,594 73.8 

Dec-90 4,637 5,832 443 6,275 1,638 73.9 

Jan-91 4,701 5,660 419 6,079 1,378 77.3 

Jun-91 4,333 5,549 415 5,964 1,631 72.7 

Dec-91 4,554 5,473 422 5,895 1,341 77.3 

Jan-92 4,559 5,263 512 5,775 1,216 78.9 

Jun-92 4,339 5,093 504 5,597 1,258 77.5 

Dec-92 4,450 5,037 497 5,534 1,084 80.4 

Jan-93 4,369 5,097 398 5,495 1,126 79.5 

Jun-93 4,306 5,032 402 5,434 1,128 79.2 

Dec-93 4,151 4,935 376 5,311 1,160 78.2 

Jan-94 4,459 5,160 479 5,639 1,180 79.1 

Jun-94 4,493 5,364 470 5,834 1,341 77.0 

Dec-94 4,397 5,246 473 5,719 1,322 76.9 

Jan-95 4,320 5,128 391 5,519 1,199 78.3 

Jun-95 4,414 5,010 417 5,427 1,013 81.3 

Dec-95 4,371 4,955 431 5,386 1,015 81.2 

Jan-96 4,343 4,771 381 5,152 809 84.3 

Jun-96 4,049 4,811 415 5,226 1,177 77.5 

Dec-96 5,346 4,930 416 5,346 0 100.0 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.;

and Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 27

Table 8. Louisiana (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS) Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive

Capacity Projections, 1997-1998 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 4,343 4,894 414 5,308 965 81.8 

Jun-97 4,080 5,061 410 5,471 1,391 74.6 

Dec-97 5,714 5,331 383 5,714 0 100.0 

Jan-98 4,440 5,306 381 5,687 1,247 78.1 

Jun-98 4,175 5,423 373 5,796 1,621 72.0 

Dec-98 5,964 5,600 364 5,964 0 100.0 

Base Case Projection

Jan-97 4,343 4,894 414 5,308 965 81.8 

Jun-97 4,080 5,061 410 5,471 1,391 74.6 

Dec-97 5,802 5,399 403 5,802 0 100.0 

Jan-98 4,438 5,392 402 5,794 1,356 76.6 

Jun-98 4,174 5,668 398 6,066 1,892 68.8 

Dec-98 6,081 6,066 395 6,461 380 94.1 

High Case Projection

Jan-97 4,343 4,894 414 5,308 965 81.8 

Jun-97 4,080 5,061 410 5,471 1,391 74.6 

Dec-97 5,844 5,423 421 5,844 0 100.0 

Jan-98 4,436 5,433 420 5,853 1,417 75.8 

Jun-98 4,174 5,922 422 6,344 2,170 65.8 

Dec-98 6,075 6,795 425 7,220 1,145 84.1 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

28 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 20. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f Louis iana (Excluding Gulf

Me xic o OCS ) Gas Wells by Well Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His tory Pro je c tions

Figure 19. Louis iana (Excluding Gulf o f Me xic o OCS ) Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During

Ye ar, 1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba se d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102297.
California (Including Pacific OCS)

California is a net importer of natural gas. All California gas

produced is used within the State. In 1995, two-thirds of the

total gas produced in California and the Pacific OCS was

oil-well gas.{14}

In 1994, Elk Hills and Coalingas East Extension oil fields

were the two largest producers of natural gas. The two largest

gas fields were Rio Vista and Pitas Point; the latter is in the

Pacific OCS. This information was obtained from the

California Department of Conservation.

The following pages include Tables 9 and 10 and Figures 21

through 23, which provide historical and projected

production and productive capacity, gas-well completions

added, and percent of capacity by well age. These data

include the OCS. Production and productive capacity are

equal, with no surplus for December 1996. There is no

surplus for January 1997, October 1997 through June 1998,

and September 1998 through December 1998 for the low

case. For the base case, there is no surplus for January 1997,

October 1997 through February 1998, and October 1998

through December 1998. For the high case, there is no

surplus for January 1997, and November 1997 through

January 1998.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 29

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low

Capacity

Produc tion

S urplus

Figure 21. California (Including Pacific OCS ) Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad

Produc tive Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

30 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 9. California (Including Pacific OCS) Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive 

Capacity, 1986-1996 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 1,347 762 775 1,537 190 87.6 

Jun-86 1,231 683 734 1,417 186 86.9 

Dec-86 1,175 616 703 1,319 144 89.1 

Jan-87 1,166 579 696 1,275 109 91.5 

Jun-87 1,120 536 714 1,250 130 89.6 

Dec-87 1,086 485 707 1,192 106 91.1 

Jan-88 1,063 485 695 1,180 117 90.1 

Jun-88 1,072 469 692 1,161 89 92.3 

Dec-88 997 431 655 1,086 89 91.8 

Jan-89 978 419 659 1,078 100 90.7 

Jun-89 950 399 658 1,057 107 89.9 

Dec-89 943 399 648 1,047 104 90.1 

Jan-90 952 423 652 1,075 123 88.6 

Jun-90 932 450 638 1,088 156 85.7 

Dec-90 981 561 637 1,198 217 81.9 

Jan-91 985 569 625 1,194 209 82.5 

Jun-91 1,005 555 628 1,183 178 85.0 

Dec-91 1,012 519 635 1,154 142 87.7 

Jan-92 1,032 528 632 1,160 128 89.0 

Jun-92 950 457 630 1,087 137 87.4 

Dec-92 910 408 628 1,036 126 87.8 

Jan-93 851 428 575 1,003 152 84.8 

Jun-93 804 397 579 976 172 82.4 

Dec-93 832 368 588 956 124 87.0 

Jan-94 835 398 574 972 137 85.9 

Jun-94 807 356 576 932 125 86.6 

Dec-94 808 313 601 914 106 88.4 

Jan-95 759 326 550 876 117 86.6 

Jun-95 735 288 558 846 111 86.9 

Dec-95 766 264 561 825 59 92.8 

Jan-96 790 251 549 800 10 98.8 

Jun-96 723 251 554 805 82 89.8 

Dec-96 796 259 537 796 0 100.0 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.;

and Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States Through 1998 31

Table 10. California (Including Pacific OCS) Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive

Capacity Projections, 1997-1998 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 790 255 535 790 0 100.0 

Jun-97 723 241 530 771 48 93.8 

Dec-97 747 249 498 747 0 100.0 

Jan-98 744 249 495 744 0 100.0 

Jun-98 735 250 485 735 0 100.0 

Dec-98 729 255 474 729 0 100.0 

Base Case Projection

Jan-97 790 255 535 790 0 100.0 

Jun-97 723 241 530 771 48 93.8 

Dec-97 773 253 520 773 0 100.0 

Jan-98 772 253 519 772 0 100.0 

Jun-98 746 259 514 773 27 96.5 

Dec-98 781 272 509 781 0 100.0 

High Case Projection

Jan-97 790 255 535 790 0 100.0 

Jun-97 723 241 530 771 48 93.8 

Dec-97 796 255 541 796 0 100.0 

Jan-98 796 256 540 796 0 100.0 

Jun-98 746 273 540 813 67 91.8 

Dec-98 835 310 543 853 18 97.9 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

32 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His to ry Pro je c tions

Figure 22. California (Including Pacific OCS ) Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During Ye ar,

1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 23. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f California (Including Pacific

OCS ) Gas Wells by Well Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Kansas

In 1995 over half the gas produced in the State of Kansas

came from the giant Hugoton field. Hugoton field 1995

production of 517 billion cubic feet of gas was almost 23

percent more than in 1994. This information was obtained

from Dwight's. Hugoton field occupies almost all of the

western half of Kansas and extends south into Oklahoma and

the northern part of the Texas Panhandle. Production from

this field generally comes from low permeability sandy

carbonate reservoir rocks.

The following pages include Tables 11, 12, and Figures 24

through 26. These data provide historical and projected

production and productive capacity, gas-well completions

added, and percent of capacity by well age.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 33

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low Capacity

Produc tion

S urplus

Figure 24. Kans as Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity,

1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

34 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 11. Kansas Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity Projections, 1986-1996

(Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 1,806 2,813 287 3,100 1,294 58.3 

Jun-86 897 2,803 245 3,048 2,151 29.4 

Dec-86 1,702 2,791 226 3,017 1,315 56.4 

Jan-87 1,597 2,809 251 3,060 1,463 52.2 

Jun-87 994 2,768 252 3,020 2,026 32.9 

Dec-87 1,720 2,745 248 2,993 1,273 57.5 

Jan-88 2,002 2,820 281 3,101 1,099 64.6 

Jun-88 1,198 2,720 302 3,022 1,824 39.6 

Dec-88 1,753 2,778 279 3,057 1,304 57.3 

Jan-89 2,071 2,742 248 2,990 919 69.3 

Jun-89 1,472 2,696 244 2,940 1,468 50.1 

Dec-89 1,736 2,784 218 3,002 1,266 57.8 

Jan-90 1,730 2,727 279 3,006 1,276 57.6 

Jun-90 1,317 2,665 275 2,940 1,623 44.8 

Dec-90 1,972 2,750 268 3,018 1,046 65.3 

Jan-91 1,888 2,698 200 2,898 1,010 65.1 

Jun-91 1,441 2,678 202 2,880 1,439 50.0 

Dec-91 1,941 2,740 193 2,933 992 66.2 

Jan-92 2,014 2,801 215 3,016 1,002 66.8 

Jun-92 1,472 2,829 205 3,034 1,562 48.5 

Dec-92 2,080 2,801 200 3,001 921 69.3 

Jan-93 2,144 2,841 207 3,048 904 70.3 

Jun-93 1,647 2,791 220 3,011 1,364 54.7 

Dec-93 2,001 2,774 204 2,978 977 67.2 

Jan-94 2,018 2,681 216 2,897 879 69.7 

Jun-94 1,798 2,647 222 2,869 1,071 62.7 

Dec-94 1,920 2,619 216 2,835 915 67.7 

Jan-95 2,102 2,521 229 2,750 648 76.4 

Jun-95 1,663 2,437 225 2,662 999 62.5 

Dec-95 1,973 2,469 206 2,675 702 73.8 

Jan-96 1,984 2,435 207 2,642 658 75.1 

Jun-96 1,863 2,427 211 2,638 775 70.6 

Dec-96 2,066 2,581 217 2,798 732 73.8 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.;
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 35

Table 12. Kansas Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity Projections, 1997-1998 

(Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 2,014 2,595 216 2,811 797 71.6 

Jun-97 1,894 2,663 212 2,875 981 65.9 

Dec-97 2,087 2,787 196 2,983 896 70.0 

Jan-98 2,046 2,801 195 2,996 950 68.3 

Jun-98 1,926 2,875 189 3,064 1,138 62.9 

Dec-98 2,113 2,982 183 3,165 1,052 66.8 

Base Case Projection

Jan-97 2,014 2,595 216 2,811 797 71.6 

Jun-97 1,894 2,663 212 2,875 981 65.9 

Dec-97 2,082 2,793 206 2,999 917 69.4 

Jan-98 2,045 2,811 206 3,017 972 67.8 

Jun-98 1,926 2,933 202 3,135 1,209 61.4 

Dec-98 2,106 3,094 199 3,293 1,187 64.0 

High Case Projection

Jan-97 2,014 2,595 216 2,811 797 71.6 

Jun-97 1,894 2,663 212 2,875 981 65.9 

Dec-97 2,079 2,787 216 3,003 924 69.2 

Jan-98 2,044 2,813 215 3,028 984 67.5 

Jun-98 1,926 2,988 214 3,202 1,276 60.1 

Dec-98 2,104 3,274 214 3,488 1,384 60.3 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

36 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His tory Pro je c tions

Figure 25. Kans as Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During Ye ar, 1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba se d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 26. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f Kans as Gas Wells by Well

Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
New Mexico

Most of this State's natural gas is produced from fields in

northwestern New Mexico from the San Juan Basin.

Practically all of the oil-well gas produced comes from the

Permian Basin of southeast New Mexico.

Basin field of the San Juan Basin, the largest gas field in the

State, produced 667 billion cubic feet of mixed gas-well

conventional and coalbed gas during 1995. This was a

decrease of 36 billion cubic feet over the amount produced in

1994. New Mexico has been an area of intense drilling for

coalbed gas since 1989. Coalbed gas production from this

field increased 217 percent from 1990 through 1994.

Coalbed gas produced in New Mexico was about 15 percent

of the State's total dry gas producted in 1990, 23 percent in

1991, 31 percent in 1992, 36 percent in 1993, 39 percent in

1994, and 41 percent in 1995.{13} Coalbed gas-well

completions were treated separately from the conventional

gas-well completions in this report. Coalbed gas wells have

an increasing rate of production the first few years of their

lives. After reaching their peak production rates, coalbed gas

wells are predicted to have very low decline rates and

therefore very long lives. Coalbed gas capacity has shown an

increase in the last few years. (Figure 28).

The following pages include Tables 13, 14, and Figures 27

through 30, which provide historical and projected

production and productive capacity, gas-well completions

added, and percent of capacity by well age.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 37

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low

Capacity

Produc tion

S urplus

Figure 27. New Me xic o Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad Produc tive

Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

38 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 13. New Mexico Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity, 1986-1996

(Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 2,307 3,259 574 3,833 1,526 60.2 

Jun-86 1,627 3,310 551 3,861 2,234 42.1 

Dec-86 2,005 3,222 521 3,743 1,738 53.6 

Jan-87 2,189 3,208 536 3,744 1,555 58.5 

Jun-87 1,798 3,155 525 3,680 1,882 48.9 

Dec-87 2,567 3,085 539 3,624 1,057 70.8 

Jan-88 2,553 3,098 524 3,622 1,069 70.5 

Jun-88 1,876 3,083 512 3,595 1,719 52.2 

Dec-88 2,100 3,059 503 3,562 1,462 59.0 

Jan-89 2,414 3,179 501 3,680 1,266 65.6 

Jun-89 1,974 3,155 472 3,627 1,653 54.4 

Dec-89 2,519 3,165 458 3,623 1,104 69.5 

Jan-90 2,791 3,322 508 3,830 1,039 72.9 

Jun-90 2,445 3,322 491 3,813 1,368 64.1 

Dec-90 2,881 3,426 504 3,930 1,049 73.3 

Jan-91 3,010 3,506 551 4,057 1,047 74.2 

Jun-91 2,640 3,531 539 4,070 1,430 64.9 

Dec-91 2,952 3,581 547 4,128 1,176 71.5 

Jan-92 3,051 3,692 563 4,255 1,204 71.7 

Jun-92 3,301 3,789 564 4,353 1,052 75.8 

Dec-92 3,642 3,880 553 4,433 791 82.2 

Jan-93 3,583 3,801 565 4,366 783 82.1 

Jun-93 3,596 3,839 556 4,395 799 81.8 

Dec-93 3,875 3,959 571 4,530 655 85.5 

Jan-94 4,239 4,556 539 5,095 856 83.2 

Jun-94 3,815 4,540 487 5,027 1,212 75.9 

Dec-94 4,310 4,761 515 5,276 966 81.7 

Jan-95 4,354 4,758 611 5,369 1,015 81.1 

Jun-95 4,143 4,737 620 5,357 1,214 77.3 

Dec-95 4,316 4,904 615 5,519 1,203 78.2 

Jan-96 4,239 4,891 615 5,506 1,267 77.0 

Jun-96 4,224 4,875 605 5,480 1,256 77.1 

Dec-96 4,561 4,774 606 5,380 819 84.8 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.;

and Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 39

Table 14. New Mexico Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity Projections, 

1997-1998 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 4,239 4,750 604 5,354 1,115 79.2 

Jun-97 4,255 4,792 597 5,389 1,134 79.0 

Dec-97 4,632 4,745 556 5,301 669 87.4 

Jan-98 4,335 4,733 553 5,286 951 82.0 

Jun-98 4,350 4,715 540 5,255 905 82.8 

Dec-98 4,714 4,676 526 5,202 488 90.6 

Base Case Projection

Jan-97 4,239 4,750 604 5,354 1,115 79.2 

Jun-97 4,255 4,792 597 5,389 1,134 79.0 

Dec-97 4,621 4,752 585 5,337 716 86.6 

Jan-98 4,333 4,744 583 5,327 994 81.3 

Jun-98 4,349 4,756 577 5,333 984 81.5 

Dec-98 4,698 4,746 571 5,317 619 88.4 

High Case Projection

Jan-97 4,239 4,750 604 5,354 1,115 79.2 

Jun-97 4,255 4,792 597 5,389 1,134 79.0 

Dec-97 4,615 4,762 611 5,373 758 85.9 

Jan-98 4,331 4,759 610 5,369 1,038 80.7 

Jun-98 4,349 4,804 611 5,415 1,066 80.3 

Dec-98 4,693 4,850 614 5,464 771 85.9

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

40 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

1

2

3

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

Capacity

Produc tion

Figure 28. New Me xic o Dry Co albe d Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad

Produc tive Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction proje ction plotte d for ba s e ca s e only.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd

Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roductive Ca pa city: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P roje ctions: Ene rgy Information

Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Fore ca sting S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His to ry Proje c tions

Figure 29. New Me xic o Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During Ye ar, 1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba se d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 41

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 30. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f New Me xic o Gas

Wells by Well Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Oklahoma

Oklahoma is among the top three gas-producing States.

There are numerous large and small gas fields scattered

throughout western Oklahoma. Oil fields with large volumes

of associated-dissolved gas are located generally in central

Oklahoma. Dwight's EnergyData, Inc., indicates that, in

1995, the top two gas-producing areas were the

Mocane-Laverne (94 Bcf) area and the Watonga-Chickasha

Trend (82 Bcf). The Mocane-Laverne area, located in

Northwest Oklahoma, consists of over 50 fields, and the

Watonga-Chickasha Trend consists of more than 70 fields.

The following pages include Tables 15 and 16 and Figures 31

through 33, which provide historical and projected

production and productive capacity, gas-well completions

added, and percent of capacity by well age.

Energy Information Administration

42 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low

Capacity

Produc tion

Surplus

Figure 31. Oklahoma Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity,

1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 43

Table 15. Oklahoma Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity, 1986-1996

(Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 5,812 7,575 1,507 9,082 3,270 64.0 

Jun-86 4,852 7,555 1,295 8,850 3,998 54.8 

Dec-86 5,572 7,513 1,264 8,777 3,205 63.5 

Jan-87 5,588 7,498 1,228 8,726 3,138 64.0 

Jun-87 5,073 7,392 1,296 8,688 3,615 58.4 

Dec-87 5,742 7,439 1,211 8,650 2,908 66.4 

Jan-88 5,885 7,271 1,202 8,473 2,588 69.5 

Jun-88 5,444 7,256 1,222 8,478 3,034 64.2 

Dec-88 5,999 7,128 1,183 8,311 2,312 72.2 

Jan-89 6,032 7,164 1,222 8,386 2,354 71.9 

Jun-89 5,863 7,059 1,141 8,200 2,337 71.5 

Dec-89 5,789 6,966 1,033 7,999 2,210 72.4 

Jan-90 6,313 6,981 1,224 8,205 1,892 76.9 

Jun-90 5,907 6,892 1,094 7,986 2,079 74.0 

Dec-90 5,740 6,778 1,010 7,788 2,048 73.7 

Jan-91 5,890 6,800 940 7,740 1,850 76.1 

Jun-91 5,405 6,583 941 7,524 2,119 71.8 

Dec-91 5,772 6,545 892 7,437 1,665 77.6 

Jan-92 5,646 6,424 902 7,326 1,680 77.1 

Jun-92 5,035 6,141 893 7,034 1,999 71.6 

Dec-92 5,257 5,958 887 6,845 1,588 76.8 

Jan-93 5,436 6,219 824 7,043 1,607 77.2 

Jun-93 5,271 6,083 846 6,929 1,658 76.1 

Dec-93 5,244 5,886 788 6,674 1,430 78.6 

Jan-94 5,155 5,709 820 6,529 1,374 79.0 

Jun-94 5,017 5,587 817 6,404 1,387 78.3 

Dec-94 5,088 5,450 804 6,254 1,166 81.4 

Jan-95 4,869 5,335 750 6,085 1,216 80.0 

Jun-95 4,687 5,261 759 6,020 1,333 77.9 

Dec-95 4,632 5,214 735 5,949 1,317 77.9 

Jan-96 5,074 5,132 751 5,883 809 86.2 

Jun-96 4,612 5,082 729 5,811 1,199 79.4 

Dec-96 5,161 5,240 741 5,981 820 86.3 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.; and

Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

44 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 16. Oklahoma Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity Projections, 

1997-1998 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 5,074 5,228 737 5,965 891 85.1 

Jun-97 4,675 5,303 724 6,027 1,352 77.6 

Dec-97 5,230 5,513 670 6,183 953 84.6 

Jan-98 5,203 5,508 666 6,174 971 84.3 

Jun-98 4,771 5,514 646 6,160 1,389 77.5 

Dec-98 5,343 5,647 625 6,272 929 85.2 

Base Case Projection

Jan-97 5,074 5,228 737 5,965 891 85.1 

Jun-97 4,675 5,303 724 6,027 1,352 77.6 

Dec-97 5,218 5,571 705 6,276 1,058 83.1 

Jan-98 5,201 5,581 702 6,283 1,082 82.8 

Jun-98 4,770 5,714 690 6,404 1,634 74.5 

Dec-98 5,324 6,026 678 6,704 1,380 79.4 

High Case Projection

Jan-97 5,074 5,228 737 5,965 891 85.1 

Jun-97 4,675 5,303 724 6,027 1,352 77.6 

Dec-97 5,210 5,593 736 6,329 1,119 82.3 

Jan-98 5,198 5,619 735 6,354 1,156 81.8 

Jun-98 4,770 5,928 731 6,659 1,889 71.6 

Dec-98 5,319 6,614 729 7,343 2,024 72.4 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 45

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His to ry Pro je c tions

Figure 32. Oklahoma Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During Ye ar, 1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba se d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 33. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f Oklahoma Gas

Wells by Well Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Southeast (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS)

The Southeast area includes the States of Arkansas,

Mississippi, and Alabama (excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS).

Production is from highly permeable deep formations on the

Gulf Coast, as well as from low permeability and relatively

shallow formations in Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and

northern Alabama.

Coalbed gas production in Alabama was 35 percent of the

State's total dry gas production in 1990, 47 percent in 1991,

35 percent in 1992, 37 percent in 1993, 28 percent in 1994,

and 30 percent in 1995. {13} Coalbed gas-well completions

in Alabama were treated separately from conventional

gas-well completions in this report. Coalbed gas capacity

continues to increase through 1998, (Figure 35).

The following pages include Tables 17 and 18 and Figures 34

through 37, which provide historical and projected

production and productive capacity, gas-well completions

added, and percent of capacity by well age.

Energy Information Administration

46 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low

Capacity

S urplus Produc tion

Figure 34. S outhe as t (Excluding Gulf o f Me xic o OCS ) Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and

Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 47

Table 17. Southeast (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS) Dry Gas Production and Wellhead 

Productive Capacity, 1986-1996 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 1,110 1,458 146 1,604 494 69.2 

Jun-86 908 1,483 137 1,620 712 56.0 

Dec-86 1,128 1,567 131 1,698 570 66.4 

Jan-87 1,146 1,519 128 1,647 501 69.6 

Jun-87 1,008 1,505 130 1,635 627 61.7 

Dec-87 1,109 1,477 127 1,604 495 69.1 

Jan-88 1,197 1,470 124 1,594 397 75.1 

Jun-88 1,062 1,444 121 1,565 503 67.9 

Dec-88 1,171 1,425 119 1,544 373 75.8 

Jan-89 1,216 1,405 126 1,531 315 79.4 

Jun-89 1,067 1,377 127 1,504 437 70.9 

Dec-89 1,082 1,400 115 1,515 433 71.4 

Jan-90 1,189 1,450 109 1,559 370 76.3 

Jun-90 1,086 1,479 110 1,589 503 68.3 

Dec-90 1,167 1,496 112 1,608 441 72.6 

Jan-91 1,309 1,661 94 1,755 446 74.6 

Jun-91 1,128 1,671 92 1,763 635 64.0 

Dec-91 1,419 1,882 93 1,975 556 71.8 

Jan-92 1,579 1,935 156 2,091 512 75.5 

Jun-92 1,535 1,939 152 2,091 556 73.4 

Dec-92 1,641 1,944 149 2,093 452 78.4 

Jan-93 1,622 1,921 150 2,071 449 78.3 

Jun-93 1,462 1,894 141 2,035 573 71.8 

Dec-93 1,773 2,207 141 2,348 575 75.5 

Jan-94 1,833 2,278 124 2,402 569 76.3 

Jun-94 1,718 2,208 120 2,328 610 73.8 

Dec-94 1,794 2,151 118 2,269 475 79.1 

Jan-95 1,770 2,149 116 2,265 495 78.1 

Jun-95 1,675 2,141 113 2,254 579 74.3 

Dec-95 1,751 2,155 118 2,273 522 77.0 

Jan-96 1,762 2,084 115 2,199 437 80.1 

Jun-96 1,682 2,086 110 2,196 514 76.6 

Dec-96 1,808 2,062 105 2,167 359 83.4 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.; and

Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

48 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 18. Southeast (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS) Dry Gas Production and Wellhead

Productive Capacity Projections, 1997-1998 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 1,762 2,040 105 2,145 383 82.1 

Jun-97 1,682 2,072 103 2,175 493 77.3 

Dec-97 1,827 2,082 95 2,177 350 83.9 

Jan-98 1,791 2,064 94 2,158 367 83.0 

Jun-98 1,710 2,091 92 2,183 473 78.3 

Dec-98 1,850 2,105 88 2,193 343 84.4 

Base Case Projection

Jan-97 1,762 2,040 105 2,145 383 82.1 

Jun-97 1,682 2,072 103 2,175 493 77.3 

Dec-97 1,822 2,097 100 2,197 375 82.9 

Jan-98 1,790 2,081 100 2,181 391 82.1 

Jun-98 1,710 2,136 98 2,234 524 76.5 

Dec-98 1,843 2,179 96 2,275 432 81.0 

High Case Projection

Jan-97 1,762 2,040 105 2,145 383 82.1 

Jun-97 1,682 2,072 103 2,175 493 77.3 

Dec-97 1,820 2,104 104 2,208 388 82.4 

Jan-98 1,789 2,091 104 2,195 406 81.5 

Jun-98 1,710 2,190 103 2,293 583 74.6 

Dec-98 1,842 2,299 103 2,402 560 76.7 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 49

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Proje c tions

Capacity

Produc tion

Figure 35. S outhe as t (Excluding Gulf o f Me xic o OCS ) Dry Co albe d Gas Monthly

Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction proje ction plotte d for ba se ca se only.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd

Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roductive Ca pa city: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P roje ctions: Ene rgy Information

Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Fore ca sting S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His to ry Pro je c tions

Figure 36. S outhe as t (Excluding Gulf o f Me xic o OCS ) Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During

Ye ar, 1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

50 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 37. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f S outhe as t (Excluding Gulf

o f Me xic o ) Gas Wells by Well Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Rocky Mountains

The Rocky Mountains area includes Colorado, Montana,

North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. The area is diverse and

geologically complex, with many low permeability

formations.

Coalbed gas produced in Colorado was about 11 percent of

the State's total dry gas produced in 1990, 17 percent in 1991,

26 percent in 1992, 32 percent in 1993, and 40 percent in

1994, and 44 percent in 1995. {13} Coalbed gas-well

completions in Colorado and Wyoming were treated

separately from conventional gas-well completions in this

report. Coalbed gas capacity has shown an increase in the last

few years (Figure 39).

The following pages include Tables 19 and 20 and Figures 38

through 41, which provide historical and projected

production and productive capacity, gas-well completions

added, and percent of capacity by well age

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 51

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low

Capacity

Produc tion

Surplus

Figure 38. Roc ky Mountains Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad Produc tive

Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history is ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

P roductive Ca pacity: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting

System, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

52 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 19. Rocky Mountains Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity, 1986-1996

(Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 2,241 2,342 650 2,992 751 74.9 

Jun-86 1,671 2,354 600 2,954 1,283 56.6 

Dec-86 2,400 2,738 562 3,300 900 72.7 

Jan-87 2,408 2,395 785 3,180 772 75.7 

Jun-87 2,022 2,374 761 3,135 1,113 64.5 

Dec-87 2,436 2,393 763 3,156 720 77.2 

Jan-88 2,524 2,303 802 3,105 581 81.3 

Jun-88 2,147 2,357 804 3,161 1,014 67.9 

Dec-88 2,553 2,372 754 3,126 573 81.7 

Jan-89 3,115 2,786 909 3,695 580 84.3 

Jun-89 2,579 2,769 873 3,642 1,063 70.8 

Dec-89 3,155 2,810 861 3,671 516 85.9 

Jan-90 3,319 2,823 1,061 3,884 565 85.5 

Jun-90 2,861 2,843 1,045 3,888 1,027 73.6 

Dec-90 3,391 2,929 1,015 3,944 553 86.0 

Jan-91 3,625 2,969 1,102 4,071 446 89.0 

Jun-91 3,206 2,951 1,077 4,028 822 79.6 

Dec-91 3,559 3,030 1,048 4,078 519 87.3 

Jan-92 3,899 3,326 1,080 4,406 507 88.5 

Jun-92 3,685 3,337 1,051 4,388 703 84.0 

Dec-92 3,955 3,510 1,009 4,519 564 87.5 

Jan-93 3,965 3,790 765 4,555 590 87.0 

Jun-93 3,649 3,973 770 4,743 1,094 76.9 

Dec-93 4,131 4,119 736 4,855 724 85.1 

Jan-94 4,071 4,029 646 4,675 604 87.1 

Jun-94 3,682 4,044 634 4,678 996 78.7 

Dec-94 4,124 4,327 617 4,944 820 83.4 

Jan-95 4,298 4,337 598 4,935 637 87.1 

Jun-95 3,940 4,330 583 4,913 973 80.2 

Dec-95 4,209 4,382 571 4,953 744 85.0 

Jan-96 4,470 4,329 559 4,888 418 91.4 

Jun-96 3,790 4,389 554 4,943 1,153 76.7 

Dec-96 3,963 4,539 556 5,095 1,132 77.8 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.; and

Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 53

Table 20. Rocky Mountains Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity Projections,

1997-1998 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 4,470 4,508 554 5,062 592 88.3 

Jun-97 3,813 4,699 548 5,247 1,434 72.7 

Dec-97 4,014 4,845 510 5,355 1,341 75.0 

Jan-98 4,567 4,814 508 5,322 755 85.8 

Jun-98 3,909 4,943 495 5,438 1,529 71.9 

Dec-98 4,076 5,060 482 5,542 1,466 73.5 

Base Case Projection

Jan-97 4,470 4,508 554 5,062 592 88.3 

Jun-97 3,813 4,699 548 5,247 1,434 72.7 

Dec-97 4,005 4,881 536 5,417 1,412 73.9 

Jan-98 4,565 4,853 535 5,388 823 84.7 

Jun-98 3,908 5,054 529 5,583 1,675 70.0 

Dec-98 4,061 5,258 523 5,781 1,720 70.2 

 High Case Projection

Jan-97 4,470 4,508 554 5,062 592 88.3 

Jun-97 3,813 4,699 548 5,247 1,434 72.7 

Dec-97 3,999 4,895 560 5,455 1,456 73.3 

Jan-98 4,563 4,873 559 5,432 869 84.0 

Jun-98 3,908 5,181 560 5,741 1,833 68.1 

Dec-98 4,057 5,562 562 6,124 2,067 66.2 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

54 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Proje c tions

Capacity

Produc tion

Figure 39. Roc ky Mountains Dry Co albe d Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad

Produc tive Capacity, 1986-1998

Note: P roduction proje ction plotte d for ba s e ca s e only.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc.; a nd

Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roductive Ca pa city: Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P roje ctions: Ene rgy Information

Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Fore ca sting S ystem, August 1997, a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His to ry Pro je c tions

Figure 40. Roc ky Mountains Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During Ye ar, 1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba se d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 55

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percent

Pro je c tions

0 - 3 Ye ars

0 - 2 Ye ars

0 - 1 Ye ars

His tory

Figure 41. Pe rc e nt o f To tal Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity o f Roc ky Mountains Gas Wells

by Well Age, 1986-1998 (Bas e Cas e )

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s; Dwight's Ene rgydata, Inc. P roje ctions: Model

GASCAP 94 C102997.
Eighteen States

The remaining producing 18 States were considered as one

group. The 18 States are:

• Arizona • Michigan • Oregon

• Florida • Missouri • Pennsylvania

• Illinois • Nebraska • South Dakota

• Indiana • Nevada • Tennessee

• Kentucky • New York • Virginia

• Maryland • Ohio • West Virginia.

Data are limited for this group of States, and only 3 of the 18

States are included in Dwight's: Nebraska, Oregon, and

South Dakota. Production data are available from EIA for

each of the 18 States but not by well completion.

The following pages include Tables 21 and 22 and Figures 42

and 43, which provide historical and projected production,

productive capacity, and gas-well completions added.

Energy Information Administration

56 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Cubic Feet Per Day

His tory Pro je c tions

High

Bas e

Low Capacity

Produc tion

Surplus

Figure 42. Eighte e n S tate s Dry Gas Monthly Produc tion Rate and Wellhe ad Produc tive Capacity,

1986-1998

Note: P roduction projection plotte d for ba s e ca s e only. The 1996 e stimate d history ba s e d on Model GASCAP 94 C102997 projections.

S ource s: P roduction History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roductive Ca pacity:

Model GASCAP 94 C102997. P roduction P rojections: Ene rgy Information Administration, S hort-Te rm Inte grate d Foreca sting S ystem, August 1997,

a nd Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 57

Table 21. Eighteen States Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity Projections,

1986-1996 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Jan-86 1,970 2,448 213 2,661 691 74.0 

Jun-86 1,716 2,423 201 2,624 908 65.4 

Dec-86 2,182 2,402 189 2,591 409 84.2 

Jan-87 2,029 2,443 218 2,661 632 76.2 

Jun-87 1,781 2,441 221 2,662 881 66.9 

Dec-87 2,272 2,439 219 2,658 386 85.5 

Jan-88 2,095 2,484 214 2,698 603 77.7 

Jun-88 1,848 2,480 227 2,707 859 68.3 

Dec-88 2,341 2,479 207 2,686 345 87.2 

Jan-89 2,166 2,471 237 2,708 542 80.0 

Jun-89 1,890 2,474 228 2,702 812 69.9 

Dec-89 2,381 2,476 194 2,670 289 89.2 

Jan-90 2,173 2,514 264 2,778 605 78.2 

Jun-90 1,883 2,513 239 2,752 869 68.4 

Dec-90 2,390 2,513 226 2,739 349 87.3 

Jan-91 2,275 2,535 253 2,788 513 81.6 

Jun-91 2,105 2,531 239 2,770 665 76.0 

Dec-91 2,285 2,521 244 2,765 480 82.6 

Jan-92 2,104 2,521 255 2,776 672 75.8 

Jun-92 2,166 2,515 260 2,775 609 78.1 

Dec-92 2,253 2,518 257 2,775 522 81.2 

Jan-93 2,248 2,529 266 2,795 547 80.4 

Jun-93 2,219 2,535 269 2,804 585 79.1 

Dec-93 2,225 2,528 252 2,780 555 80.0 

Jan-94 2,541 2,533 262 2,795 254 90.9 

Jun-94 2,238 2,524 301 2,825 587 79.2 

Dec-94 2,153 2,523 276 2,799 646 76.9 

Jan-95 2,311 2,523 317 2,840 529 81.4 

Jun-95 2,356 2,519 318 2,837 481 83.0 

Dec-95 2,218 2,511 273 2,784 566 79.7 

Jan-96 2,387 2,514 283 2,797 410 85.3 

Jun-96 2,467 2,528 292 2,820 353 87.5 

Dec-96 2,257 2,552 289 2,841 584 79.4 

The 1996 estimated history is based on Model GASCAP94 C102997 projections and Baker Hughes rig counts. a

Sources: Production History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas; Dwight's Energydata, Inc.;

and Model GASCAP94 C102997. Productive Capacity: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

58 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table 22. Eighteen States Dry Gas Production and Wellhead Productive Capacity Projections,

1997-1998 (Million Cubic Feet Per Day)

Dry Gas Productive Capacity

Dry Gas-Well Oil-Well Total Total Utilization

Month-Year Production Gas Gas Gas Surplus (percent)

Low Case Projection

Jan-97 2,418 2,558 287 2,845 427 85.0 

Jun-97 2,467 2,573 283 2,856 389 86.4 

Dec-97 2,278 2,601 262 2,863 585 79.6 

Jan-98 2,452 2,606 260 2,866 414 85.6 

Jun-98 2,531 2,628 253 2,881 350 87.9 

Dec-98 2,336 2,655 245 2,900 564 80.6 

Base Case Projection

Jan-97 2,418 2,558 287 2,845 427 85.0 

Jun-97 2,467 2,573 283 2,856 389 86.4 

Dec-97 2,272 2,603 275 2,878 606 78.9 

Jan-98 2,451 2,608 274 2,882 431 85.0 

Jun-98 2,531 2,635 270 2,905 374 87.1 

Dec-98 2,327 2,668 266 2,934 607 79.3 

 High Case Projection

Jan-97 2,418 2,558 287 2,845 427 85.0 

Jun-97 2,467 2,573 283 2,856 389 86.4 

Dec-97 2,269 2,602 288 2,890 621 78.5 

Jan-98 2,450 2,609 287 2,896 446 84.6 

Jun-98 2,531 2,642 286 2,928 397 86.4 

Dec-98 2,325 2,688 286 2,974 649 78.2 

Sources: Production Projections: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System,

August 1997 and Model GASCAP C102997. Productive Capacity Projections: Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 59

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Gas-Well Completions

High

Bas e

Low

His to ry Pro je c tions

Figure 43. Eighte e n S tate s Gas -Well Comple tions Adde d During Ye ar, 1986-1998

Note: The 1996 e stimate d history is ba se d on Drilling Rig Model proje ctions a nd Ba ke r Hughe s rig counts. Completions

include re completions in new producing zone s.

S ource s: History: Ene rgy Information Administration, Office of Oil a nd Ga s. Estimate s of ga s -well completions ba s e d on

AP I well completion data. P roje ctions: Model GASCAP 94 C102997.
References

1. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Natu ral Gas Produc tive Ca pac ity for the Lower 48 States 1980 through

1991. DOE/EIA- 0542 (Wash ing ton, DC, Janu ary 24,

1991).

2. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Natu ral Gas Produc tive Ca pac ity for the Lower 48 States 1982 through

1993. DOE/EIA- 0542 (Wash ing ton, DC, March 10,

1993).

3. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Natu ral Gas Produc tive Ca pac ity for the Lower 48 States 1980 through

1995. DOE/EIA- 0542 (Wash ing ton, DC, July 14,

1994).

4. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Natu ral Gas Produc tive Ca pac ity for the Lower 48 States 1984 through

1996. DOE/EIA- 0542 (Wash ing ton, DC, Feb ru ary 9,

1996).

5. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion, Natu ral Gas Produc tive Ca pac ity for the Lower 48 States 1985 through

1987. DOE/EIA- 052. Wash ing ton, DC, De cem ber 23,

1996.

6. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Gas De liv er abil ity

and Flow Ca pac ity of Sur veil lance Gas Fields in Texas

Rail road Com mis sion Dis trict 8. DOE/EIA- 0342

(Wash ing ton, DC, April 1982).

7. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Gas De liv er abil ity

and Flow Ca pac ity of Sur veil lance Gas Fields in Texas.

DOE/EIA- 0342(82) (Wash ing ton, DC, Oc to ber 1982).

8. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Gas De liv er abil ity

and Flow Ca pac ity of Sur veil lance Gas Fields in Kansas, New Mex ico, and Ar kan sas. DOE/EIA- 0416(83)

(Wash ing ton, DC, Sep tem ber 1983).

9. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Gas De liv er ability and Flow Ca pac ity of Sur veil lance Fields in Lou isiana and Texas Fed eral Off shore Ar eas.

DOE/EIA- 0471 (Wash ing ton, DC, Janu ary 23, 1986).

10. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Gas De liv er ability and Flow Ca pac ity of Sur veil lance Fields in Lou isiana. DOE/EIA- 0506 (Wash ing ton, DC, De cem ber 2,

1987).

11. Rawl ins, E.L., and Schell hardt, M.A. Back- Pressure

Data On Natu ral Gas Wells and Their Ap pli ca tion to

Pro duc tion Prac tices. U.S. Bu reau of Mines Monograph 7. 1936

12. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Short- Term

Integrated Fore cast ing Sys tem, August 1997.

13 En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion, U.S. Crude Oil,

Natu ral Gas, and Natu ral Gas Liq uids Re serves An -

nual Re port. DOE/EIA- 0216 (Wash ing ton, DC, 1991,

1992, 1993, 1994 and 1995).

14. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Natu ral Gas Annual. DOE/EIA- 0131 (Wash ing ton, DC, 1986 through

1995).

15. En ergy In for ma tion Ad min istra tion. Natu ral Gas

Monthly. DOE/EIA- 0131 (Wash ing ton, DC, Janu ary

1986 through 1998).

16. Natu ral Gas Sup ply As so cia tion. Natu ral Gas Sup ply

As so cia tion Sur vey: Natu ral Gas Field De liv er ies &

Pro duc tive Ca pac ity as of Janu ary 1, 1996 (Wash ington, DC, Sep tem ber 1996).

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 61
Appendix A

Model Abstract
Appendix A

Model Abstract

Name: Wellhead Gas Productive Capacity

Acronym: GASCAP

Description: GASCAP estimates the historical wellhead

productive capacity of natural gas for the lower 48 States and

projects the productive capacity for 3 years. The Short-Term

Energy Outlook (STEO) output for low, base, and high cases

is used to estimate the number of active rigs and oil and gas

well completions. The projected oil production (which is

assumed to be producing at capacity) is used to estimate the

oil-well gas production using a constant gas-oil ratio. The gas

demand is also taken from STEO. The difference between

demand and oil-well gas production is assumed to be the

gas-well gas demand and the production as long as capacity

exceeds demand.

Purpose: GASCAP is used to project the natural gas

wellhead productive capacity for the lower 48 States. It also

allows quantification of the available productive capacity

and the projected capacity under differing future scenarios.

Date of Last Model Update: 1996

Part of Another Model: No

References to Any Other Models: None

Documentation reference: Wellhead Gas Productive

Capacity Model (GASCAP) Documentation

DOE/EIA-M052, March 1995

Official Model Representatives:

•Office: Oil and Gas

•Division: Reserves and Production

•Model Contacts: John H. Wood, James N. Hicks, Hafeez 

Rahman, Velton T. Funk

•Telephone: 214-720-6150

Archive Media and Installation Guides: Cartridge tape

available from NEIC for GASCAP94, for the report Natural

Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986

through 1998, DOE/EIA-0542(97/2).

Energy System Described: GASCAP measures and

predicts wellhead natural gas productive capacity.

Coverage:

•Geographic: Lower-48 natural gas producing States

•Time Unit/Frequency: Evaluates 13 years of historical

data and project productive capacity for 3 years.

•Products: Natural gas

•Economic Sectors: Not applicable

Modeling Features:

•Model Structure: The model consists of a series of

Statistical Analysis System (SAS) procedures utilizing a

modified rate of gas production versus cumulative gas

production (Rate-cum) equation.

•Modeling Techniques: SAS, utilizing the least squares,

nonlinear regression procedure (NLIN) with the

Marquardt computational method, was used to fit

hyperbolic equations to the data.

•Special Features: Estimates conventional and coalbed

gas-well gas productive capacity separately.

Non--DOE Input Variables and Sources:

•Dwight's EnergyData Inc, Richardson, TX, Oil and Gas

Reports

- State monthly natural gas production by well

•Baker Hughes Incorporated

- Number of active rotary rigs and number of active rotary 

gas rigs

•American Petroleum Institute

- Drilling statistics monthly tapes

DOE Data Input Variables and Sources:

•·Natural Gas Annual

- Marketed gas production by State

- Gross gas production by State

- Oil-well gas production by State

•·Natural Gas Monthly

- Marketed production of natural gas by State

•Short Term Energy Outlook

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 65
- Dry gas production forecast

- Oil and gas price forecasts

•Petroleum Supply Annual

- Crude oil production

Computing Environment:

Main Frame

•Hardware: IBM 3090E Model 400

•Operating System: MVS/XA

•Languages: FORTRAN / SAS / COBOL

•Memory requirement: 1500K

•Storage requirement: 1200 tracks of 3380 disk space

•Estimated run time: 4 hours CPU time

Personal Computer

•Hardware: Compaq Deskpro 386/20

•Operating System: MS DOS

•Software: LOTUS 123 / EXCEL / ARBITER /

HARVARD GRAPHICS

•Memory requirement: 2000K

•Storage requirement: 10 Mb hard disk space

•Estimated run time: 1 hour

Independent Expert Reviews Conducted:

•Report of fingings and Recommendations

Paul R. Carpenter, Ph.D.

Brattle/IRI, Inc.

26 June 1995

•Model Quality Audit

Allied Technology Group, Inc.

Prepared by QuanTech, Inc.

29 February 1996

Energy Information Administration 

66 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998
Appendix B

Comparison of

Productive Capacity
Appendix B

Comparison of

Productive Capacity

Comparisons of base case productive capacities for this and all previous studies were made (Figure B1). In nearly all instances,

capacities for the last two studies were equal to or higher than those in earlier studies.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

1991 Study

1993 Study

1994 Study

1995 Study

1996 Study

1997 Study

Figure B1. Comparis ons o f Base Case Dry Gas Productive Capacity for the 1991, 1993,

 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997 Studies

 Note: Monthly capacity estimates are for base case.

 Sources: 1991 Study: Energy Information Administration. Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1980 Through 1991 . DOE/EIA0542(91) (Washington, DC January 24, 1991). 1993 Study: Energy Information Administration. Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 

1983 Through 1993 . DOE/EIA-0542(93) (Washington, DC March 10, 1993). 1994 Study: Energy Information Administration. Natural Gas Productive

Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1980 Through 1995 . DOE/EIA-0542(94) (Washington, DC July 14, 1994). 1995 Study: Energy Information

Administration. Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 S tates 1984 Through 1996 . DOE/EIA-0542(96) (Washington, DC February 9, 1996).

1996 Study: Energy Administration. Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1985 Through 1997. DOE/EIA-0542(97) (Washington, DC 
Appendix C

Dry Gas-Well Capacity per 

New Gas-Well Completions
Appendix C

Dry Gas-Well Capacity per

 New Gas-Well Completion

Dry gas-well gas productive capacity of about one billion

cubic feet per day is added per 1,000 new gas-well gas

completions. This is the difference between the dry gas-well

productive capacity change for the high case and the base

case during 1998 divided by the difference in gas-well

completions between the high and base case during 1998. For

productive capacity, the period of change is from December

1997 to December 1998 (Table 2). The well completions for

the base and high cases are those added during 1998 (Figure

9). 

The calculation for 1998 follows:

( for and )

(

Difference in capacity change the high base case

Difference in well completions for the high and base case)

 =

(81.4 - 66.7 ) - (75.3 - 66.1 )

27

Bcf

day

Bcf

day

Bcf

day

Bcf

day

.9ThousandCompletions - 21.5ThousandCompletions)

 »

-

1

1000

Bcf

day

Gas wellCompletions

 »

-

1

MMcf

day

Gas well Completion

.

The estimate of dry gas-well capacity per new gas-well

completion depends on three parameters: initial flow rate

(qi); ultimate recovery (Gul); and the decline exponent (B)

(Table C1). These parameters are determined from nonlinear

regression fits of the rate versus cumulative production

relationship for hyperbolic declined.{5}

q q

G

G

i

p

ul

B

= -

Ø

o

Œ

Œ

Œ

ø

ß

œ

œœ

1 . (C1)

where

q= gas flow rate at capacity, million cubic feet per

 day

qi= initial gas flow rate at capacity, million cubic feet

 per day

Gp= cumulative gas produced, million cubic feet

Gul= ultimate gas recovery, million cubic feet

B= hyperbolic decline exponent.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 73
Energy Information Administration

74 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998

Table C1. Average Initial Flow Rates, Ultimate Recovery, and Decline Exponent on a Conventional

 Gas-We ll Completion Basis fo r 1992-1994

qi Gul B

Initial Flow Rate Ultimate Recovery Decline

State/Area (MMcf/day) (MMcf) Exponent

Gulf of Mexico .................................................................... 7.5 4,386 1.2

Texas (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS) ......................... 1.0 1,009 2.2

Louisiana (Excluding Gulf of Mexico OCS)................... 2.1 1,886 1.9

California (Including Pacific OCS)................................. 1.0 815 1.6

Kansas .............................................................................. 0.4 953 2.7

New Mexico ...................................................................... 0.6 1,179 2.9

Oklahoma .......................................................................... 0.9 1,033 2.3

Southeast .......................................................................... 1.2 2,408 2.4

Rocky Mountain ................................................................ 0.7 1,624 2.9

 Note: Texas and Louisiana exclude Gulf of Mexico OCS; California includes Pacific OCS.

 Source: Energy Information Administration, Model GASCAP94 C102997.
Glossary
Glossary

Annual Average-Day Demand: Annual demand divided by

the number of days in the year.

Associated Gas: Natural gas, commonly known as gas-cap

gas, which overlies and is in contact with crude oil in the

reservoir.

Back-pressure: The pressure maintained on equipment or

systems through which a fluid flows.

Bcf: Billion cubic feet of gas at a pressure base of 14.73

pounds per square inch absolute and a temperature base of 60

degrees Fahrenheit.

Coalbed Gas: Natural gas that is produced from coalbeds.

Methane is the principal component. It is commonly referred

to as coalbed methane.

Connected Field Capacity: The Natural Gas Supply

Association's definition of Connected Field Capacity is “the

rate at which gas can be physically injected into the

intrastate and interstate pipeline network, on a 30-day

sustainable basis,” under the best of operating conditions

(i.e., excluding planned and unplanned downtime). Because

the sustainable production rate of a gas field can be lower

than that of the individual gas well, the connected capacity is

defined on a field basis rather than on a well basis.

Connected field capacity also takes into account the capacity

limitations imposed by gathering systems and natural gas

processing plants. For example, if a group of wells can

physically produce 100 MMcf/day of dry gas, but the

gathering system can only transport 90 MMcf/day and the

gas processing plant can only produce 70 MMcf/day of dry

gas, then the connected field capacity is stated as 70

MMcf/day. The difference between the 100 MMcf/day well

production potential and the 70 MMcf/day actually produced 

by the gas processing plant (i.e., 30 MMcf/day) is considered

unconnected field capacity.

Gas productive capacity used to operate gas production and

processing facilities was excluded from the survey's

consideration.

Deficit Capacity: The negative difference between gas

productive capacity and scheduled gas production.

Deliverability: The volume of natural gas that can be

produced from a well, reservoir, or field during a given

period of time against a certain wellhead back-pressure under

actual reservoir conditions, taking into account restrictions

imposed by pipeline capacity, contract, or regulatory bodies.

Demand: U.S. requirement for dry gas from all sources:

production, storage withdrawals, supplemental gaseous

fuels, and imports.

Dissolved Gas: Natural gas in solution in crude oil in the

reservoir.

Dry Gas: Marketed gas less extraction loss.

Extraction Loss: The reduction in volume of natural gas

resulting from the removal of natural gas liquid constituents

at natural gas processing plants.

Flow String: The string of tubing or casing through which

gas or oil flows to the surface.

Gas-Well Gas: Nonassociated or associated gas produced

from well completions classified as gas-well completions by

a regulatory body.

Gross Gas: Full well stream gas volume, including all

natural gas plant liquids and nonhydrocarbon gases, but

excluding lease condensate. Also includes amounts delivered

as royalty payments or consumed in field operations.

G-10 Rate : Daily gas well production rate calculated as

specified on the Railroad Commission of Texas Oil and Gas

Division form G-10 and Rule 28.

Lease Condensate: A mixture consisting primarily of

pentanes and heavier hydrocarbons which is recovered as a

liquid from natural gas in lease or field separation facilities,

exclusive of products recovered at natural gas processing

plants or facilities.

Marketed Gas: Gross natural gas less gas used for

repressuring, quantities vented and flared, and

nonhydrocarbon gases removed in treating or processing

operations. Includes all quantities of gas used in field and

processing operations.

Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998 77
Mcf: Thousand cubic feet of gas at a pressure base of 14.73

pounds per square inch absolute and a temperature base of 60

degrees Fahrenheit.

MMcf: Million cubic feet of gas at a pressure base of 14.73

pounds per square inch absolute and a temperature base of 60

degrees Fahrenheit.

Nonassociated Gas: Free natural gas not in contact with

crude oil in the reservoir.

OCS: Outer Continental Shelf.

Oil-Well Gas: Natural gas produced from well completions

classified as oil-well completions by a regulatory body.

Peak-Day Demand: Highest daily demand that occurred on

any one day during the year.

Peak-Month Average-Day Demand: Highest of the 12

monthly demands for the year divided by the number of days

in the month.

Peak Shaving: Supplying fuel gas such as propane to a

distribution system from an auxiliary source during periods

of maximum demand, when the primary source is not

adequate.

Plant Liquids: Those volumes of natural gas liquids

recovered in natural gas processing plants.

Productive Capacity: The volume of natural gas that can be

produced from a well, reservoir, or field during a given

period of time against a certain wellhead back-pressure under

actual reservoir conditions excluding restrictions imposed by

pipeline capacity, contract, or regulatory bodies.

Productive Capacity at the Wellhead: The maximum gas

production rate that can be sustained for a specific month at

the gas-well. It changes over time and cumulatively is a

function of gas production and drilling.

Surplus Capacity: The positive difference between gas

productive capacity and scheduled gas production.

Tcf: Trillion cubic feet of gas at a pressure base of 14.73

pounds per square inch absolute and a temperature base of 60

degrees Fahrenheit.

Vintage Year: The year in which a well first goes on

production.

Water-Drive Reservoir: A reservoir in which the rate of

water intrusion into the pay substantially equals the

volumetric net rate of oil and gas withdrawal.

Well: A hole made by drilling through strata.

Well Completion: A flow string in a well used to conduct

fluids to the surface from one reservoir or zone. A producing

well may contain one or more well completions.

Energy Information Administration 

78 Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1986 Through 1998