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Number 135, February 1998

Turkey's Role in the NewWorld Order
***New Challenges***
**by General �evik BirDeputy Chief of Turkey's General Staff**

**Introduction**
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Turkey faces new challenges as the    result of the political, military and economic developments we have been witnessing over    the past decade, not the least of which is finding Turkey’s role in the new world    order that is now taking shape. If we were to make a brief evaluation of the present    environment it would be correct to characterize it as a period of transition and    transformation that calls for reorientations and new architectures.

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The new world order will be erected on    top of the exisiting arrangements, eliminating present uncertainties, and constituting the    political, military and economic structures of the 21st century.

- 
Therefore, the West should be prepared    to shoulder heavy responsibilities in creating a security structure that will ensure a    peaceful and stable future, making the right decisions, and, in particular avoiding    mistakes in the security aspect of our future.

**General Assessment**
Dramatic developments mark the present period. The most striking ofthem all is the end of the Cold War, a victory for the Western Alliance, gained withoutfiring a shot. The values represented by the West prevailed over the philosophy, values,system and practices of communism, the Warsaw Pact and the USSR. Despite these optimisticdevelopments, new challenges and threats are emerging in the form of ethnic nationalism,international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and long rangemissiles, religious fundamentalism, domestic instability in neighboring regions, andillicit trafficking of arms and drugs. There is a need to address these new problem areas,while considering the developments that give us hope for the future.

The exceptional solidarity and cohesion of the allies, and NATO’sdecisive deterrent power played a crucial role in winning the Cold War. It should not beforgotten that Turkey, maintaining the second largest effective standing armed forces ofthe Alliance, played a major role within this decisive detterent power. The NATO partnersmust continue to demonstrate the same solidarity and cooperative spirit they shared duringthe Cold War as they begin forging the new order for peace and security.
**The New Security Architecture in Europe**
In the post-Cold War era, Europe embarked on a fresh process ofintegration and expansion as well as the establishment of a new security architecture.Besides NATO, the bedrock of the western security institutions, the Western European Unionand the European Union (EU) are also in the process of becoming a part of that securityarchitecture. Even as the importance of collective defense and the trans-atlantic link arebeing emphasized within NATO, simultaneously contradictory arguments are also beingadvanced, which can only be described as "Europe is for the Europeans."Unfortunately, the new European strategic concept is based on a fairly narrow-mindedframework. Europe, which seems to be content with the elimination of the threat of anall-out-war, has decided that the Alliance’s primary strategic goal should be theenhancement of security in central Europe.

Such a "central Europe oriented" approach may yieldshort-term positive results; however, its mid-term result could invite the revival of theCold War by creating new divisions and groupings in Europe, perhaps this time as a"Western Curtain" instead of an "Iron Curtain." The countries invitedto the enlargement process of NATO and the EU confirm the fact that these concerns arejustified. The mistake is in the shortsighted approach when determining the new securityborders of Europe. The basic elements, such as the economic and social dimensions and thepolitical stability within the security concept, are being ignored.

The special place and the importance of the United States in the newsecurity architecture are worth mentioning. It should be sufficient to quote the words ofSecretary Madeleine Albright, "Let us not deceive ourselves. The United States is aEuropean power." In the changing post-Cold War environment, the United States mayseem to be losing its influence and lessening its activities within the European club.Even if the public view "let the Europeans solve their own problems themselves"is gaining support among the Americans, the United States still remains as anindispensable strategic partner for Europe, and Europe remains a region where the vitalinterests of the United States lie. Therefore, the United States still has the need andthe responsibility to participate actively in every arrangement in Europe.

Another aspect that should be taken into consideration regarding theUnited States, is its position as the sole superpower in a new security identitiy andarchitecture. There are serious concerns that Europe’s new security architecture willbe based on radically reduced forces because of a relaxed attitude that in the futurethere will be no threat similar to that in the past. It is crucial to question whetherdeterrence, NATO’S greatest asset, together with its crucial transatlantic link,would be as effective in the future as it was during the Cold War period.

Another significant issue for concern in the post-Cold War period, andparticularly in western Europe, is that these countries could not demonstrate promptresolve for intervening in regional conflicts that did not directly affect their ownsecurity. They approached these conflicts disorganized, driven by conflicting interests,incompatible with the traditional solidarity and unity of the western alliance. A concreteyet painful example of this attitude was demonstrated in Bosnia-Herzegovina. And, despitethe bitter experience of Bosnia-Herzegovina, the political determination and structuralarrangements required to prevent or stop by force similar crises in the future are stilllacking. There are serious doubts whether Europe will have the political determination andthe necessary mechanisms to address its own problems at the same level as that of the ColdWar period.

There remains a need to maintain the effective transatlantic link whichhas been the bedrock of NATO’s collective defense strategy in the creation of newEuropean security architecture. Should Europe face the new risks and challenges with itsnew security structure, it would have to address problems beyond its central Europeandimension to cover all the regions that affect its own security. Otherwise, it would haveto face the risk of creating a very unstable peripheral region joining the narrow areawhich it assumes to be secure. The cost of this for Europe would be too high and thehistorical opportunity that emerged after the Cold War for establishing security andstability in a wider area will be missed.
**Regional Problems**
We are all aware that the area comprising the Balkans, the Caucasus andthe Middle East—where Turkey is located at the epicenter—is significant to themaintenance of peace and stability for not only Europe but for the world as well. Thesethree regions where the vital interests of Europe and the world merge are marked bytensions arising from unresolved conflicts and wars that are likely to spill over in othercountries. It is likely that each of these three regions will continue to occupy thesecurity agenda of the West for the near future.

Stability and peace in the Balkans and particularly inBosnia-Herzegovina is yet to be secured. At present, there are certain positivedevelopments that encourage us to look at the future with hope. 

Looking at the Caucasus, we see a slightly different picture. Althoughone may observe certain positive signs, the likelihood of securing peace and stability isnot near yet. The existence of more than one million Azeri refugees alone demonstrates thegravity of the social and humanitarian aspect of the problem. Another important issue inthe Caucasus is the effort by the Russian Federation to reintroduce its influence in theregion’s newly independent states in the context of its "near abroad"policy. In assessments related to the Caucasus, economic considerations, often referred toas "ecostrategy," should be seriously calculated since they have a direct impacton security.

Its vast natural resources render the Caucasus even more important.Taken together with those in the Middle East, oil reserves in the region are calculated tobe 200 billion barrels and are worth $4,000 billion. This represents 71 percent of theworld’s oil reserves. One-third of the world’s total natural gas reserves are inthe Caucasus-Caspian Basin alone. When rich natural resources such as water and gold arealso taken into account in addition to oil and gas, the region becomes a focal point wherethe vital interests of the world, including those of the West, intersect. Considering thatglobal energy requirements are expected to increase 35 to 50 percent by the year 2010, theprobability is that this region will eventually become an oil and natural gas center.

Turning to the Middle East, one finds a region with a web of conflictsinherited from the past. Besides the traditional Arab-Israeli conflict, some new securityissues expand the problems.
**Considerations on Turkey**
Located at the epicenter of regions fraught with crises, Turkey is asecular, democratic, liberal country sharing western moral values. With the traditions ofits 1,000 years of statehood, its constitutional order and its strong armed forces, Turkeyis a center of power that can affect delicate balances of power in the region. Turkey as areliable ally has stood firmly against the Warsaw Pact, by keeping huge, effective andprofessional armed forces at a cost to its economic and social development.

The new risks and challenges that could affect the whole western worldhave transformed Turkey from a "flank" to a "front state." Turkey isone of the few western countries whose importance has increased in the post-Cold Warperiod. Turkey today is exerting every effort to contribute to regional and global peace.In this context;
- Turkey invites high level officials from countries which are members    of the Partnership for Peace (PFP) program, as well as from Caucasian and Central Asian    states, with a view to providing them support to join NATO and integrate with the West. 
- Students from these countries are trained in our military colleges in    order to adapt them to western systems and practices. Approximately 2,300 students have    graduated from Turkey’s military colleges and another 1,700 students continue their    training. 
- Turkey actively participates in PFP excercises, providing support and    even leading in many of the initiatives directed at regional security. Turkey continues    its efforts to maintain a peacekeeping unit in the Balkans and to open a PFP training    center in Turkey. 
- Attaching great importance to cooperation directed at further    strengthening the peace and stability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, Turkey    spares no effort to expand relations in the region. Relations with Israel have shown    significant progress. Turkey’s cooperation with Israel is in no way against any    country, but is aimed at furthering relations with the countries of the region. However,    Turkey and Israel—the only two democratic coutries in the region—face the same    threats of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). 
- The Turkish armed forces are participating in peacekeeping operations    in the neighboring friendly countries, despite financial difficulties. Turkey’s    participation in the UN Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM), Deny Flight, Sharp Guard, IFOR and    SFOR in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the multinational force in Albania, and contributions to the    UN observers in Georgia, Kuwait and Al-Khalil are concrete examples of this effort. 

However, these efforts are not reciprocated by the full support ofTurkey’s neighbors. Some neighboring states still lay claim to Turkish territory.Some states are trying to export their regime contrary to Turkey’s constitutionalorder and the moral values of the modern world. Some of these countries support terrorism,a problem that will probably occupy the world community in the future.

Turkey has been combating terrorism for many years, and therefore is ina better position to appreciate the magnitude of this menace for the whole world. The PKKterrorist organization wants to create a so-called independent Kurdish state in an areacomprising northern Iraq and some provinces of Turkey. The PKK is trying to hide its aimbehind the pretext of "protecting the rights of the Kurdish people." The PKK hassettled mainly in northern Iraq. The authority vacuum created following the Gulf War hasenabled this terrorist organization to take root in the region. The PKK’s terroristspenetrate Turkey from northern Iraq to stage subversive activities. The purpose of Turkishcross-border military operations is to eradicate the terrorists from the region and toprevent their furture deployment. These operations are vital to Turkey’s security andare not aimed at a permanent presence in northern Iraq. 

Turkey, by concluding the Ankara Treaty of 1963, committed itself longago to joining the western community and the West has likewise engaged itself in thisprocess. However, today the West seems to forget that, during the Cold War, Turkeycompletely fulfilled its obligations in deterring and containing the Warsaw Pact threat,despite difficult economic conditions. The same West which once described Turkey as a"staunch ally" and a "bastion" is now following a policy of excludingTurkey from the new map of Europe. On the other hand, certain western circles arechallenging Turkey’s relations with the United States and Israel as detrimental tothe interests of Europe.

Today Europe is, on the one hand, keeping Turkey outside the EU, whileon the other, adopting an attitude that almost ignores and even complicates Turkey’slegitimate security requirements. A few examples follow:
- Within the context of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE)    negotiations, a green light is practically given to prior adversaries to deploy more    forces in the Caucasus in exchange for certain concessions in central Europe. By doing so,    the risks for Turkey are compounded and the newly independent states are left under    political and military pressure. 
- Turkey is confronted with the precondition to EU membership of    solving its problems with Greece, as if these problems did not exist when Greece was    admitted to the Union. Furthermore, Turkey is asked to agree to unfavorable conditions in    order to avoid Greece vetoing the EU enlargement in the central region. 
- Cyprus is invited to join the EU, in total disregard of the 1960    founding agreements which clearly stipulate that the Republic of Cyprus cannot become a    member of an international organization without the consent of the guarantor powers. There    are also efforts to impose on Turkey unrealistic formulations such as addressing the    security issues before reaching a political settlement in Cyprus.  

The problems encountered in the areas of democracy, human rights andthe preservation of basic rights and freedoms in Turkey are no more or less than those inthe countries that are supposedly the defenders of these fundamental principles. TheTurkish state is determined to deal with these problems in the context of itsconstitutional legal framework. 

Turkish-U.S. relations date back almost one and a half centuries.During this period there have been ups and downs in this relationship due to certaindevelopments in the international environment. However, all these did not prevent theflourishing of excellent relations between the two countries. For Turkish soldiers,members of the U.S. Armed Forces are "comrades-in-arms" with whom we have shareda common destiny in the Korean War, in NATO, in northern Iraq, in Bosnia-Herzegovina andin Somalia.
**In the Final Analysis**
It is likely that the institutions which emerged in Europe and in theregion following the Cold War will not adequately meet the long-term security andstability requirements of the Alliance. The Central Europe-oriented approach contains aseries of mistakes involving arrangements that will jeopardize the security and stabilityof Europe. By ignoring the important role a secular, democratic and modern Turkey can playin contributing to security and stability in a wider context, the West is denying Turkeyan opportunity to fully integrate with Europe.

Undoubtedly, in the face of all these developments, Turkey willcontinue to expend every effort to optimize its own national interests and securityrequirements with or without the support of Europe. Turkey hopes to see its Europeanfriends come to the realization that excluding Turkey from Europe will have extremely highcosts which might be vital for all members of the Alliance in the future.

This paper is a shortened version of General �evik Bir’spresentation to members of the National Defense University on Nov, 24, 1997. 

The Strategic Forum provides summaries of work by members and guests of the Institutefor National Strategic Studies and the National Defense University faculty. These includereports of original research, synopses of seminars and conferences,the results ofunclassified war games, and digests of remarks by distinguished speakers.

Editor in Chief - Hans Binnendijk

Editor - Jonathan W. PierceNOTE

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