United States

Department of

Agriculture

Forest Service

Pacific Northwest

Research Station

Research Paper

PNW-RP-534

March 2002

Global Effects of Accelerated

Tariff Liberalization in the Forest

Products Sector to 2010

Shushuai Zhu, Joseph Buongiorno, and David J. Brooks
Shushuai Zhu is a graduate student and Joseph Buongiorno is John N. McGovern

professor, Department of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wisconsin,

Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706; David J. Brooks is a research

forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research

Station, Forestry Science Laboratory, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331.

Authors
Abstract Zhu, Shushuai; Buongiorno, Joseph; Brooks, David J. 2002. Global effects of

accelerated tariff liberalization in the forest products sector to 2010. Res. Pap. PNWRP-534. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific

Northwest Research Station. 51 p.

This study projects the effects of tariff elimination on the world sector. Projections were

done for two scenarios: (1) progressive tariff elimination according to the schedule

agreed to under the current General Agreement on Tariff or Trade (GATT) and (2) complete

elimination of tariff on wood products as proposed within the Asia-Pacific Economic

Cooperation (APEC) Accelerated Tariff Liberalization (ATL) initiative. Projections were

made by using the global forest products model, which provides equilibrium projections

of prices and quantities produced, consumed, and traded for 14 commodity groups. Key

assumptions include rates of economic growth, availability of wood, demand (price)

elasticities, and tariff scenarios.

Keywords: Accelerated tariff liberalization, ATL, import tariffs, equilibrium projection,

market model, forest products, fuelwood, industrial roundwood, pulp, recycled fibers,

paper, paperboard.

The objective of this study was to project the effects of elimination of import tariffs on

the world forest sector. The projections are done for two scenarios: (1) progressive tariff

reduction according to the current General Agreement on Tariff or Trade schedule and (2)

complete elimination of all tariffs within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

countries.

The projections were obtained with the global forest product model (GFPM). The model

gives market equilibrium projections of quantities produced, consumed, imported, and

exported by each country for 14 commodity groups including fuelwood, industrial

roundwood, pulp and recycled fibers, and paper and paperboard. The model also projects

world equilibrium prices, up to 2010. Key assumptions include rates of economic growth,

availability of wood, demand elasticities, and scenarios for tariff reduction.

This report introduces the problem and objective of this study; summarizes the structure

of the GFPM and its assumptions; presents the trends in consumption and net trade

from 1997 to 2010, by main world regions, under the Accelerated Tariff Liberalization

(ATL) scenario; and shows the effects of ATL agreements on consumption, production,

import, and export from 1997 to 2010, for main world regions and the United States.

Detailed tables by country and product are in the appendixes

(http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/rp534).

Summary
Contents 1 Introduction

2 Methods

2 Model Structure

4 Countries and Products

4 Final Demand

6 Raw Material Supply

12 Intermediate Product Supply and Demand

12 Assumptions on Accelerated Tariff Liberalization

20 Other Assumptions

20 Mathematical Formulation of Global Forest Product Model

23 Projections with Accelerated Tariff Liberalization, 1997-2010

24 Roundwood

24 Fuelwood and Charcoal

25 Industrial Roundwood

26 Sawnwood

36 Paper and Paperboard

40 Price Trends with Accelerated Tariff Liberalization

42 Effects of Accelerated Tariff Liberalization Agreement, 1997-2010

49 Consumption

49 Production
49 Imports

49 Exports

50 Acknowledgments

50 English Equivalents

51 Literature Cited

Appendixes are available online (www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/rp534)

Appendix 1: Consumption Effects of Accelerated Tariff Liberalization

Agreement, 1997-2010

Appendix 2: Production Effects of Accelerated Tariff Liberalization Agreement,

1997-2010

Appendix 3: Import Effects of Accelerated Tariff Liberalization Agreement,

1997-2010

Appendix 4: Export Effects of Accelerated Tariff Liberalization Agreement,

1997-2010
The United States sought elimination of all tariffs in the forest products sector during the

Uruguay Round. The round resulted in a reciprocal “zero-for-zero” tariff elimination agreement

between the United States, Canada, Finland, Austria, Singapore, Hong-Kong, Japan,

European Union (E.U.), Korea, and New Zealand for paper products by 2004. At the same

time, there was agreement to reduce, over 5 years, tariffs on wood products. In the

United States, such reductions amounted to a cut in average tariffs from about 3.1 to 1.8

percent. Under the Uruguay Agreement Act, Congress gave the Administration authority to

seek reduction in tariffs on other wood products (Council on Environment Quality 1999).

In 1997, ministers of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries called for the

nomination of sectors for early voluntary sectoral liberalization (EVSL) among their

countries. The United States, Canada, Indonesia, and New Zealand proposed the forest

sector. In 1998, APEC leaders agreed to move the tariff portion of the EVSL initiative to

the World Trade Organization, to conclude an agreement by the end of 1999.

Tariffs remain a significant barrier to trade for forest products (Bourke and Leitch 1998).

Although tariffs in countries that are members of the Organization for Economic

Cooperation and Development are generally low, they remain high for some products; for

example, wood-based panels. In other countries, tariffs between 10 and 20 percent are

common and can reach 40 percent.

The Accelerated Tariff Liberalization (ATL) initiative covers all forest products, such as

logs and wood products (chapter 44), pulp, paper, and paper products (chapters 47, 48,

and 49). Parties to the Uruguay Round zero-for-zero agreement would move up the

elimination of tariffs on pulp, paper, and paper products from 1 January 2004 to 1

January 2000. Others would attempt to remove tariffs by the same date but could delay

removal until 1 January 2002. The proposal calls for the elimination of tariffs on all other

products by 1 January 2002.

The objective of this study was to project the effects of the ATL agreement for the global

forest sector in general, and for the APEC countries in particular. For each country and

14 forest groups of forest products, we project consumption, production, imports, exports,

and prices. The projections are to 2010, for two scenarios: (1) continuation of the current

tariff agreements or (2) elimination of tariffs according to the ATL schedule.

The methods use a dynamic spatial equilibrium model of the world forest sector. The

model was applied to project forest product consumption, production, trade, and prices

under specific scenarios of economic growth, timber supply, and technical change. These

assumptions are held constant in the simulations of the alternative ATL scenarios to

judge the effect of the tariff reductions only.

This report reviews the methodology of the global forest products model (GFPM) and

describes the countries or regions and the products included in the model, the demand

equations, and the timber supply assumptions. Projections from 1997 to 2010 of consumption, net trade, and prices in the main regions of the world are summarized; and the

ATL effects of consumption, production, import, and export for the main regions of the

world and the United States for the main product groups are presented. The appendixes1

contain the detail of trends and ATL effects for individual APEC countries.

Introduction

1

1

 The appendixes are available on the web at:

http:www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/rp534
Projections of the effects of the ATL agreement were obtained with the GFPM. The

GFPM is based on the price endogenous linear programming system (PELPS III)

(Zhang et al. 1993), with recent modifications. The model simulates market equilibrium

by mathematical programming. The theory is that of spatial equilibrium in competitive

markets. The GFPM solves the equilibrium by maximizing the value of the products,

minus the cost of production, subject to material balance and capacity constraints in

each country and each year. Because material flows throughout the system must

balance, the model ensures data consistency within countries and coherence of

projections between countries.

In each projection year, for each country and commodity, supply (domestic production

plus imports) equals demand (final consumption, plus input in other processes, plus

exports). Final demand is price responsive; demand for wood or intermediate products

derives from the demand for final products through input-output coefficients that

describe technologies in each country. The supply of raw wood and nonwood fibers in

each country is price responsive. The supply of recycled paper is constrained by the

waste paper supply, which itself depends on the paper consumption and the recycling

rate. Each country exports to the world market and imports from the world market.

Projected prices are such that they clear markets: at those prices, demand equals

supply in each country.

From one year to the next, demand changes in each country because of changes in

income. The wood supply shifts according to the chosen scenario. The amount of

recycled fiber used for making paper and paperboard changes with technology and

recycling policy. Capacity increases or decreases according to new investments that

depend on past production and the profitability of production in different countries, as

revealed by the shadow price of capacity. Tariff changes affect the cost of imports, ad

valorem. Then, a new equilibrium is computed subject to the new demand and supply

conditions, new technology, new capacity, and new tariff. Trade changes with inertia tied

to past trade and production.

The general principle of the GFPM, then, is that global markets optimize the allocation

of resources in the short run (within 1 year). Longrun resource allocation is partly

governed by market forces, as in capacity expansion and trade, and also by political

forces such as the wood supply shifts determined by forest policy, the waste paper

recovery rates by environmental policy, the trade tariffs that change the cost of imports,

and the techniques of production determined by exogenous progress.

Earlier versions of PELPS and GFPM have been used by the United States and

Canadian Forest Services to develop the North American pulp and paper model and the

solid wood model, and by the International Tropical Timber Organization to develop the

Asia-Pacific tropical timber trade model. The Asia-Pacific forest products model (Zhang

et al. 1997) also was built with PELPS, and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO

1999) forest products outlook study included GFPM-based projections (Zhu et al. 1998).

Methods

Model Structure

2
Code in Code in Code in Code in

model Country model Country model Country model Country

Africa: North and Central Asia: Europe:

 America:

1 Algeria 1 Bahamas 1 Afghanistan 1 Albania

2 Angola 2 Barbados 2 Bahrain 2 Austria

3 Benin 3 Belize 3 Bangladesh 3 Belgium-

 Luxembourg

4 Botswana 4 Canada 4 Bhutan 4 Bosnia-

 Herzegovina

5 Burkina Faso 5 Cayman Islands 5 Brunei Darussalam 5 Bulgaria

6 Burundi 6 Costa Rica 6 Cambodia 6 Croatia

7 Cameroon 7 Cuba 7 China 7 Czech Republic

8 Cape Verde 8 Dominica 8 Cyprus 8 Denmark

9 Central African 9 Dominican 9 Hong Kong 9 Finland

 Republic Republic

10 Chad 10 El Salvador 10 India 10 France

11 Congo 11 Guatemala 11 Indonesia 11 Germany

12 Côte d’Ivoire 12 Haiti 12 Iran, Islamic 12 Greece

Republic

13 Djibouti 13 Honduras 13 Iraq 13 Hungary

14 Egypt 14 Jamaica 14 Israel 14 Iceland

15 Equatorial Guinea 15 Martinique 15 Japan 15 Ireland

16 Ethiopia 16 Mexico 16 Jordan 16 Italy

17 Gabon 17 Netherlands 17 Korea, DPR 17 Macedonia

 Antilles

18 Gambia 18 Nicaragua 18 Korea, REP 18 Malta

19 Ghana 19 Panama 19 Kuwait 19 Netherlands

20 Guinea 20 Saint Vincent 20 Laos 20 Norway

21 Guinea-Bissau 21 Trinidad and 21 Lebanon 21 Poland

 Tobago

22 Kenya 22 United States 22 Macau 22 Portugal

23 Lesotho 23 Malaysia 23 Romania

24 Liberia 23 South America: 24 Mongolia 24 Slovakia

25 Libyan Arab 24 Argentina 25 Myanmar 25 Slovenia

 Jamahiriya

26 Madagascar 25 Bolivia 26 Nepal 26 Spain

27 Malawi 26 Brazil 27 Oman 27 Sweden

28 Mali 27 Chile 28 Pakistan 28 Switzerland

29 Mauritania 28 Colombia 29 Philippines 29 United Kingdom

30 Mauritius 29 Ecuador 30 Qatar 30 Yugoslav Fed.

 Rep.

31 Morocco 30 French Guiana 31 Saudi Arabia

32 Mozambique 31 Guyana 32 Singapore 31 Former U.S.S.R:

33 Niger 32 Paraguay 33 Sri Lanka 32 Armenia

34 Nigeria 33 Peru 34 Syrian Arab 33 Azerbaijan

 Republic

35 Reunion 34 Suriname 35 Thailand 34 Belarus

36 Rwanda 35 Uruguay 36 Turkey 35 Estonia

37 Sao Tome and Venezuela 37 United Arab 36 Georgia

 Principe Emirates

38 Senegal 38 Viet Nam 37 Kazakhstan

39 Sierra Leone 39 Yemen 38 Kyrgyzstan

40 Somalia 39 Latvia

Table 1—Countries in the global forest products modela

3
Table 1—Countries in the global forest products modela (continued)

Code in Code in Code in Code in

model Country model Country model Country model Country

Africa continued: Oceania: Former U.S.S.R.

continued:

41 South Africa 40 Australia 40 Lithuania

42 Sudan 41 Cook Island 41 Moldova, Rep.

43 Swaziland 42 Fiji 42 Russian

 Federation

44 Tanzania, United 43 French Polynesia 43 Tajikistan

 Republic

45 Togo 44 New Caledonia 44 Turkmenistan

46 Tunisia 45 New Zealand 45 Ukraine

47 Uganda 46 Papua New Guinea Uzbekistan

48 Zaire 47 Samoa

49 Zambia 48 Soloman Islands

50 Zimbabwe 49 Tonga

50 Vanuatu

a Region names are for this study only.

The GFPM deals with 180 countries (see table 1). Each country may produce and trade

one or all of the products. This level of resolution was chosen to facilitate data verification, as most international data are collected at country level. Calculating projections by

country also facilitates review and criticism of the projections because expert knowledge

is more available at the country level than at more aggregate regional or global levels.

The list of countries in table 1 is the same as that used by FAO (1998a), and it uses the

same nomenclature.

The forest products considered in the GFPM are shown in table 2. They correspond to

product groups used by the FAO (1998a) in its statistical work. In the GFPM, there are

econometric demand equations for fuelwood and charcoal, other industrial roundwood,

sawnwood, veneer sheets and plywood, particle board, fiberboard, newsprint, printing

and writing paper, and other paper and paperboard. The supply equations for fuelwood

and charcoal, industrial roundwood, and other fiber pulp are price elastic, up to the

maximum sustainable production, which is set exogenously. Waste paper supply is

constrained by the quantity of paper recovered, an endogenous function of paper

consumption. Figure 1 shows the wood and nonwood material flows.

The demand equations for the end products (table 3) are based on derived demand

theory for raw material inputs. Dynamic demand models lead then to empirical elasticities

of demand for each forest product in relation to national income (measured by real gross

domestic product [GDP]) and real product price, in constant U.S. dollars (Baudin and

Lundberg 1987, Buongiorno 1978).

The elasticities of demand used in analyzing the effects of ATL are shown in table 3.

Different elasticities were used for countries with high or low GDP per person. Elasticities

for low-income countries were generally larger in absolute value.

The world price for each commodity in the base year (1997) was the weighted average

of unit values of imports and exports, across all countries. In the GFPM, prices are

Countries and Products

Final Demand

4
SITC code Product Unit Demand Supply

245 Fuelwood and charcoal 1000 m3 E E

246/247 Sawlogs and pulpwood 1000 m3I E

Other industrial roundwood 1000 m3 E E

248 Sawnwood 1000 m3 E I

634.1,634.3/4 Veneer and Plywood 1000 m3 E I

634.2 Particle board 1000 m3 E I

634.5 Fiberboard 1000 m3 E I

251.2 Mechanical wood pulp 1000 M.T. I I

251.91,.61,.62,.3,.4,.5 Chem/semichem. wood pulp 1000 M.T. I I

251.92 Other fiber pulp 1000 M.T. I E

251.1 Waste paper 1000 M.T. I E

641.1 Newsprint 1000 M.T. E I

641.2/3 Printing and writing paper 1000 M.T. E I

EX641 Other paper and paperboard 1000 M.T. E I

a E indicates demand or supply is represented with an econometric equation; I indicates that it

is represented with input-output coefficients.

M.T. = metric ton.

Table 2—Products in the global forest products modela

endogenous (the equilibrium between demand and supply leads to the prices). So, no

assumption has to be made about future prices.

The data on production, imports, and exports in each country and in the base year (1997)

were obtained from the FAO statistical database (FAO 1999).

The GDP data are exogenous to the GFPM and nothing else is used to shift demand.

The assumptions on the GDP growth rate of each country and the implications for the

regions are summarized in table 4. Real GDP was assumed to grow at about 4 percent

per year from 1994 to 2010 in Africa, at 2.7 percent per year in America, 4.6 percent per

year in Asia, and 2.4 percent per year in Europe.

Figure 1—Product transformations in the global forest products model.

5
Product Country Price Income

Fuelwood and charcoal

High incomea-0.62 -2.26

Low incomeb-.10 .40

Other industrial roundwood

High income -.05 -.58

Low income -.37 .19

Sawnwood

High income -.16 .32

Low income -.21 .46

Veneer and plywood

High income -.13 .73

Low income -.22 .74

Particle board

High income -.24 1.15

Low income -.05 .65

Fiberboard

High income -.52 .82

Low income -.52 .82

Newsprint

High income -.05 1.14

Low income -.18 1.05

Printing and writing paper

High income -.15 1.66

Low income -.37 1.11

Other paper and paperboard

High income -.06 .94

Low income -.14 .92

a Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland,

Israel, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, South Africa,

Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States.

b Rest of the world.

Table 3—Price and income elasticities of demand for end products

In any given year and country, the supply of industrial roundwood is a function of the

price of industrial roundwood. The price elasticity of supply was set at 0.8. This price

elasticity indicates the percentage of change in supply that would result from a 1-percent

change in price, other things being equal.

In addition, the supply equations are assumed to shift over time to simulate changes in

supply independent of prices. The rates of shifts were estimates of how much timber

production would change without a change in price. These rates of shift differ by country

and are based on various information about past production, forest area and stock,

growth rates, extent of plantations, and policies of each country. In some countries of

Asia, upper bounds were set on the timber supply, regardless of price, to reflect

perceived limits on the potential sustainable timber production of the country. The rate of

shifts relied mostly on the data of the global fiber supply study (GFSS, FAO 1998b); the

rate of shift is the annual percentage change in the “commercially available wood supply”

projected by the GFSS. The resulting aggregate average rates of shift of industrial roundwood supply, by region, were 0.71 percent in North, Central, and South America, 0.63

percent in Europe and the former U.S.S.R., 1.14 percent in Africa, and 1.4 percent in Asia

and Oceania. The detailed rates of shift used in the ATL analysis are shown in table 5.

Raw Material Supply

6
Country 1997-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010

Africa: 3.94 4.03 4.03

Algeria 3.47 3.61 3.61

Angola 2.93 5.00 5.00

Benin 4.28 6.30 6.30

Botswana 6.23 6.50 6.50

Burkina Faso 4.14 4.87 4.87

Burundi 4.41 4.76 4.76

Cameroon 4.86 3.86 3.86

Cape Verde 6.82 7.28 7.28

Central African Republic 3.62 3.65 3.65

Chad 4.05 4.89 4.89

Congo 5.54 3.52 3.52

Côte d’Ivoire 5.40 5.10 5.10

Djibouti 2.70 3.19 3.19

Egypt 3.89 3.60 3.60

Equatorial Guinea 2.15 4.26 4.26

Ethiopia 5.59 5.82 5.82

Gabon 2.12 4.40 4.40

Gambia 2.48 4.26 4.26

Ghana 5.43 5.56 5.56

Guinea 4.48 4.54 4.54

Guinea-Bissau 4.99 6.00 6.00

Kenya 4.11 5.52 5.52

Lesotho 6.53 7.52 7.52

Liberia .14 .82 .82

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 2.00 3.00 3.00

Madagascar 3.33 4.29 4.29

Malawi 2.99 2.74 2.74

Mali 4.68 5.52 5.52

Mauritania 3.47 3.54 3.54

Mauritius 6.89 7.17 7.17

Morocco 5.67 4.54 4.54

Mozambique 5.00 5.50 5.50

Niger 4.96 5.13 5.13

Nigeria 3.52 3.63 3.63

Reunion 6.00 5.00 5.00

Rwanda 5.13 5.77 5.77

Sao Tome and Principe 5.92 5.98 5.98

Senegal 4.65 5.75 5.75

Sierra Leone .63 6.13 6.13

Somalia 1.60 1.94 1.94

South Africa 3.12 3.04 3.04

Sudan 3.48 3.09 3.09

Swaziland 4.53 7.87 7.87

Tanzania, United Republic 4.85 5.14 5.14

Togo 6.31 6.95 6.95

Tunisia 5.38 4.83 4.83

Uganda 6.53 6.09 6.09

Zaire 5.00 5.00 5.00

Zambia 3.73 3.02 3.02

Zimbabwe 5.21 5.14 5.14

Table 4—Growth rate of real gross domestic product (percent per year-1)

7
Table 4—Growth rate of real gross domestic product (percent per year-1) (continued)

Country 1997-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010

America: 2.65 2.73 2.73

 North and Central America—

Bahamas 2.00 3.00 3.00

Barbados 3.34 3.50 3.50

Belize 4.00 4.50 4.50

Canada 2.75 2.97 2.97

Cayman Islands 4.00 4.50 4.50

Costa Rica 2.02 4.17 4.17

Cuba 2.00 3.50 3.50

Dominica 2.00 3.00 3.00

Dominican Republic 3.28 3.28 3.28

El Salvador 4.77 4.52 4.52

Guatemala 3.96 3.65 3.65

Haiti 3.12 3.37 3.37

Honduras 3.96 4.05 4.05

Jamaica .93 2.04 2.04

Martinique 2.00 2.00 2.00

Mexico 4.52 4.88 4.88

Netherlands Antilles 1.00 1.00 1.00

Nicaragua 3.81 3.21 3.21

Panama 3.37 4.19 4.19

Saint Vincent 3.00 3.50 3.50

Trinidad and Tobago 2.83 3.60 3.60

United States 2.45 2.40 2.40

 South America—

Argentina 4.41 4.88 4.88

Bolivia 4.21 3.76 3.76

Brazil 3.26 4.01 4.01

Chile 6.49 6.04 6.04

Colombia 3.86 4.66 4.66

Ecuador 3.12 3.49 3.49

French Guiana 1.50 1.50 1.50

Guyana 3.06 3.34 3.34

Paraguay 2.48 3.26 3.26

Peru 3.49 4.58 4.58

Suriname 1.60 2.00 2.00

Uruguay 2.37 2.90 2.90

Venezuela 2.47 3.13 3.13

Asia Pacific: 4.56 4.58 4.58

 Asia—

Afghanistan 2.00 2.50 2.50

Bahrain 1.52 2.50 2.50

Bangladesh 5.04 6.27 6.27

Bhutan 5.00 5.00 5.00

Brunei Darussalam 2.00 2.00 2.00

Cambodia 6.00 6.00 6.00

China 8.06 7.30 7.30

Cyprus 5.20 5.00 5.00

Hong Kong 5.22 5.50 5.50

India 6.21 5.95 5.95

Indonesia 7.79 7.53 7.53

Iran, Islamic Republic 3.59 3.55 3.55

8
Country 1997-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010

Asia continued—

Iraq 10.07 4.40 4.40

Israel 4.50 5.00 5.00

Japan 3.12 2.97 2.97

Jordan 5.01 4.98 4.98

Korea, DPR 2.00 2.00 2.00

Korea, REP. 6.26 6.32 6.32

Kuwait 2.30 2.00 2.00

Laos 5.00 6.00 6.00

Lebanon 7.00 8.00 8.00

Macau 5.50 6.00 6.00

Malaysia 7.95 7.68 7.68

Mongolia 2.00 3.00 3.00

Myanmar 6.14 4.44 4.44

Nepal 5.07 5.46 5.46

Oman 2.58 3.41 3.41

Pakistan 5.56 5.49 5.49

Philippines 5.31 5.34 5.34

Qatar 1.00 3.00 3.00

Saudi Arabia 2.30 2.76 2.76

Singapore 6.88 6.44 6.44

Sri Lanka 5.77 6.51 6.51

Syrian Arab Republic 4.60 5.12 5.12

Thailand 6.19 7.00 7.00

Turkey 3.61 5.71 5.71

United Arab Emirates 1.80 3.00 3.00

Viet Nam 6.00 6.50 6.50

Yemen 2.98 3.08 3.08

Oceania—

Australia 3.60 3.50 3.50

Cook Island 2.00 3.00 3.00

Fiji 1.99 2.68 2.68

French Polynesia 3.50 4.00 4.00

New Caledonia 1.00 1.50 1.50

New Zealand 2.66 2.80 2.80

Papua New Guinea 1.86 2.28 2.28

Samoa 1.50 1.50 1.50

Solomon Islands 5.00 5.50 5.50

Tonga 3.00 3.50 3.50

Vanuatu 1.50 2.00 2.00

Europe and Former U.S.S.R.: 2.36 2.91 2.91

Europe—

Albania 1.00 1.50 1.50

Austria 1.90 2.20 2.20

Belgium 2.24 2.40 2.40

Bosnia-Herzegovina 5.00 5.50 5.50

Bulgaria .48 3.38 3.38

Croatia 4.90 5.50 5.50

Czech Rep. 4.60 4.90 4.90

Denmark 2.52 2.30 2.30

Finland 3.46 2.80 2.80

France 2.08 2.53 2.53

Germany 2.37 2.67 2.67

Table 4—Growth rate of real gross domestic product (percent per year-1) (continued)

9
Table 4—Growth rate of real gross domestic product (percent per year-1) (continued)

Country 1997-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010

 Europe continued—

Greece 2.74 2.48 2.48

Hungary 2.72 4.31 4.31

Iceland 3.81 2.20 2.20

Ireland 6.60 5.40 5.40

Italy 1.97 2.57 2.57

Macedonia 2.00 3.00 3.00

Malta 4.11 3.38 3.38

Netherlands 2.86 2.60 2.60

Norway 3.56 3.00 3.00

Poland 5.11 4.81 4.81

Portugal 3.08 2.80 2.80

Romania 2.09 4.24 4.24

Slovakia 4.60 4.90 4.90

Slovenia 4.90 5.50 5.50

Spain 2.92 3.10 3.10

Sweden 1.92 2.10 2.10

Switzerland 1.55 2.52 2.52

United Kingdom 2.56 2.52 2.52

Yugoslav Federal Republic 3.50 4.00 4.00

Former U.S.S.R.—

Armenia 6.19 5.90 5.90

Azerbaijan 8.90 11.63 11.63

Belarus .24 4.60 4.60

Estonia 4.00 5.30 5.30

Georgia 9.40 9.18 9.18

Kazakhstan 3.49 5.48 5.48

Kyrgyzstan 6.10 5.00 5.00

Latvia 3.79 4.80 4.80

Lithuania 3.71 4.80 4.80

Moldova Rep .38 5.00 5.00

Russian Federation 1.40 5.80 5.80

Tajikistan -5.06 5.20 5.20

Turkmenistan .50 5.00 5.00

Ukraine -.56 5.86 5.86

Uzbekistan 1.80 4.50 4.50

Supply curves for fuelwood and charcoal had the same elasticities and rates of shifts as

those for industrial roundwood. For industrial roundwood used in the round (other

industrial roundwood), the supply curves were assumed to be horizontal so that supply

in each country was equal to the projected demand, at current prices and projected

income. This simplification is legitimate because the world trade of this product is small.

The supply of other fiber pulp (from straw, bagasse, etc.) had the same price elasticity

as industrial roundwood, 0.8, and a shift rate of 3 percent per year in China (the main

supplier of other fiber pulp) and 4 percent per year in other countries. The supply of

waste paper was assumed to be horizontal, with an upper bound defined by the previous

year’s consumption and the maximum recycling rate for the country.

10
Table 5—Roundwood supply shift rate, 1997-2010

Percent Percent Percent Percent

Country per year Country per year Country per year Country per year

Africa: 1.14 America: 0.71 Asia Pacific: 1.43 Europe and U.S.S.R.: 0.63

Algeria 0.00 North and Central Asia— Europe—

America:

Angola 0.42 Bahamas 0.00 Afghanistan 0.50 Albania -1.25

Benin 0.00 Barbados 0.00 Bahrain 0.50 Austria 0.53

Botswana 0.00 Belize 0.30 Bangladesh -0.80 Belgium 0.00

Burkina Faso 0.00 Canada 0.60 Bhutan 0.56 Bosnia-Herz. 0.00

Burundi 0.00 Cayman Islands 0.00 Brunei -0.07 Bulgaria 1.55

Cameroon 1.35 Costa Rica -1.95 Cambodia 0.26 Croatia 2.26

Cape Verde 0.00 Cuba -0.16 China 1.15 Czech Rep. 0.27

Central Af. Rep. 0.55 Dominica 0.00 Cyprus 0.50 Denmark 0.65

Chad 0.00 Dominican Rep. -1.39 Hong Kong 0.00 Finland 0.94

Congo 2.00 El Salvador 3.72 India 2.54 France 0.78

Côte d’Ivoire -0.30 Guatemala -1.68 Indonesia 2.13 Germany 0.15

Djibouti 0.00 Haiti 0.00 Iran 0.50 Greece 0.00

Egypt 0.00 Honduras -2.03 Iraq 0.50 Hungary 0.69

Equatorial Guinea -0.18 Jamaica 0.00 Israel 0.50 Iceland 0.00

Ethiopia 0.00 Martinique 0.00 Japan 1.52 Ireland 3.49

Gabon -0.03 Mexico -0.12 Jordan 0.50 Italy 0.24

Gambia 0.00 Netherlands Antil. 0.00 Korea, DPR 0.67 Macedonia 0.00

Ghana -0.94 Nicaragua -1.99 Korea, Rep. 2.21 Malta 0.00

Guinea -0.99 Panama -1.67 Kuwait 0.00 Netherlands 0.52

Guinea Bissau 0.32 Saint Vincent 0.00 Laos 1.37 Norway 1.24

Kenya 3.14 Trinidad &Tobago 0.00 Lebanon 0.50 Poland 0.09

Lesotho 0.00 United States 0.60 Macau 0.50 Portugal 0.53

Liberia -0.26 Malaysia -1.09 Romania 0.00

Libyan Arab Jam. 0.00 South America: Mongolia -0.70 Slovakia 0.36

Madagascar -0.72 Argentina 2.98 Myanmar 0.86 Slovenia 0.77

Malawi 10.07 Bolivia 1.00 Nepal 1.32 Spain 1.03

Mali 0.00 Brazil 1.34 Oman 0.00 Sweden 0.63

Mauritania 0.00 Chile 1.69 Pakistan 1.49 Switzerland 0.46

Mauritius 0.00 Colombia 0.53 Philippines 1.80 United Kingd 2.21

Morocco 1.69 Ecuador -0.73 Qatar 0.50 Yugoslav FR 0.00

Mozambique 0.00 French Guiana 1.82 Saudi Arabia 0.50

Niger 0.00 Guyana 0.56 Singapore 0.00 Former U.S.S.R.:

Nigeria -0.69 Paraguay -1.69 Sri Lanka 1.29 Armenia 0.20

Reunion 0.00 Peru 0.61 Syrian Arab Rep 0.50 Azerbaijan 0.20

Rwanda 0.00 Suriname 1.53 Thailand -0.06 Belarus 2.10

Sao Tome and Pr. 0.00 Uruguay 2.36 Turkey 0.50 Estonia 2.79

Senegal 0.00 Venezuela 0.10 Un. Arab Em. 0.00 Georgia 0.20

Sierra Leone -2.60 Vietnam 3.03 Kazakhstan 0.20

Somalia 0.00 Yemen, Rep. 0.50 Kyrgyzstan 0.20

South Africa 2.02 Latvia 1.41

Sudan -0.59 Oceania— Lithuania 2.18

Swaziland 3.00 Australia 1.02 Moldova Rep 2.10

Tanzania, U. Rep. 4.20 Cook Is -1.79 Russian Fed 0.20

Togo 0.00 Fiji 8.33 Tajikistan 0.20

Tunisia 3.00 French Polyn. 0.00 Turkmenistan 0.20

Uganda 3.50 New Caledon. 0.50 Ukraine 2.10

Zaire 0.57 New Zealand 3.80 Uzbekistan 0.20

Zambia 1.51 Papua New Guinea 3.84

Zimbabwe 4.45 Samoa 0.00

Solomon Is 3.00

Tonga 0.50

Vanuatu 3.19

11
The GFPM simulates the transformation, in each country, of wood and other raw

materials (other fiber pulp and waste paper) into end products (sawnwood and panels),

or intermediate products (pulps), which are in turn transformed into end products

(papers). These successive transformations, and the attendant supplies and demands,

are represented by activity analysis.

The corresponding input-output coefficients were estimated for the base year (1997). The

estimation procedure was such that the implied consumption, production, and trade of

all products were as close as possible to the national statistics, as reported in FAO

(1999), whereas the input-output coefficients stayed within a plausible range, given prior

knowledge of the technology. For example, the total amount of pulp and other fibers

consumed per ton of paper had to be close to unity.

Each production activity represented with input-output coefficients corresponds to a

manufacturing cost. This is the cost of all inputs (capital, wages, energy, etc.), excluding

the cost of raw materials explicit in the model. This cost was estimated in the base year

(1997) as the unit value of the output, minus the cost of all inputs, at world prices.

Similarly, all the supply curves for raw materials and the demand curves for end products

were calibrated to supply or demand the amounts observed in each country at world

price. Because the calibration is made at world import price, the supply curves and

manufacturing costs include the cost of transportation, which is therefore set at zero for

all trade flows in the base year.

Calibrated in this way, the solution of the model in the base year is almost identical to

the observed quantities and corresponding prices for all products and countries.

In the GFPM, a change in tariff is equivalent to a change in transport cost for imported

commodities. Most tariffs are ad valorem, so the effect of a change in tariff changes

with the price level. For technical reasons, the new tariff is based on last year’s world

price, computed by the spatial equilibrium mechanism.

Two scenarios were implemented: (1) a base scenario, analog to the continuation of

current agreements (2) and an ATL scenario to simulate the accelerated removal of

tariffs. The details of the tariff reductions assumed in the two scenarios are shown in

table 6.

Base scenario—According to Barbier (1996), because of the Uruguay Round of global

agreement on trade and tariffs (GATT), major developed countries were committed to

reducing tariffs by 50 percent on solid wood products over 5 years starting in 1995, and

completely phasing out tariffs on pulp and paper by 2004.

For this study, we had data on tariffs in 1997. For solid wood products (fuelwood,

industrial roundwood, sawnwood, veneer and plywood, particle board, and fiberboard),

we assumed that tariffs had been reduced by one-sixth from 1995 to 1997, and that they

would be reduced further by one-sixth each year in 1998 and 1999. For pulp (mechanical

pulp, chemical pulp, other fiber pulp, and waste paper) and paper (newsprint, printing and

writing paper, other paper, and paperboard), we reduced 1997 tariffs by one-seventh

each year from 1998 onwards, thereby leading to total tariff elimination by 2004.

Assumptions on

Accelerated Tariff

Liberalization

Intermediate Product

Supply and Demand

12

Text continues on page 19.
America:

Canada— Percent

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Veneer and plywood 6 5 4 4 4 4 0 0

Particle board 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0 0

Fiberboard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0 0 0 0

Mexico—

Fuelwood and charcoal 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Sawnwood 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Veneer and plywood 15 12.5 10 10 10 10 0 0

Particle board 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Fiberboard 15 12.5 10 10 10 10 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 5 4.3 3.6 2.9 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 5 4.3 3.6 2.9 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 15 12.9 10.7 8.6 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 10 8.6 7.1 5.7 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 10 8.6 7.1 5.7 0 0 0 0

United States—

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Veneer and plywood 5 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0 0

Particle board 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0

Fiberboard 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.4 0 0 0 0

Tariff rates

Base

scenario ATL scenario

Country and commodity 1997 1998 1999 2000 2004 2010 2000 2010

Table 6—Tariff rates in alternative scenarios

13
Tariff rates

Base

scenario ATL scenario

Country and commodity 1997 1998 1999 2000 2004 2010 2000 2010

Table 6—Tariff rates in alternative scenarios (continued)

Brazil— Percent

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Sawnwood 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Veneer and plywood 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Particle board 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Fiberboard 2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 20 17.1 14.3 11.4 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 12.5 10.7 8.9 7.1 0 0 0 0

Chile—

Fuelwood and charcoal 11 9.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 11 9.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 11 9.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 0 0

Sawnwood 11 9.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 0 0

Veneer and plywood 11 9.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 0 0

Particle board 11 9.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 0 0

Fiberboard 11 9.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Asia and Oceania:

Brunei—

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Sawnwood 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Veneer and plywood 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Particle board 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Fiberboard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14
Tariff rates

Base

scenario ATL scenario

Country and commodity 1997 1998 1999 2000 2004 2010 2000 2010

Table 6—Tariff rates in alternative scenarios (continued)

China— Percent

Fuelwood and charcoal 9 7.5 6 6 6 6 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 6 5 4 4 4 4 0 0

Sawnwood 9 7.5 6 6 6 6 0 0

Veneer and plywood 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Particle board 22 18.3 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 0 0

Fiberboard 22 18.3 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 15 12.9 10.7 8.6 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 20 17.1 14.3 11.4 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 15 12.9 10.7 8.6 0 0 0 0

Hong Kong—

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Veneer and plywood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Particle board 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fiberboard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Indonesia—

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Veneer and plywood 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Particle board 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Fiberboard 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 25 21.4 17.9 14.3 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 5 4.3 3.6 2.9 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 15 12.9 10.7 8.6 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 10 8.6 7.1 5.7 0 0 0 0

15
Japan— Percent

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 6.8 5.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 0 0

Veneer and plywood 7.1 5.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 0 0

Particle board 6 5 4 4 4 4 0 0

Fiberboard 3.1 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.4 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0 0 0 0

Korea—

Fuelwood and charcoal 2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0 0

Sawnwood 5 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0 0

Veneer and plywood 8 6.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 0 0

Particle board 8 6.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 0 0

Fiberboard 8 6.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 8 6.9 5.7 4.6 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 8 6.9 5.7 4.6 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 8 6.9 5.7 4.6 0 0 0 0

Malaysia—

Fuelwood and charcoal 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Veneer and plywood 40 33.3 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 0 0

Particle board 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Fiberboard 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 5 4.3 3.6 2.9 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 15 12.9 10.7 8.6 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 20 17.1 14.3 11.4 0 0 0 0

Tariff rates

Base

scenario ATL scenario

Country and commodity 1997 1998 1999 2000 2004 2010 2000 2010

Table 6—Tariff rates in alternative scenarios (continued)

16
Tariff rates

Base

scenario ATL scenario

Country and commodity 1997 1998 1999 2000 2004 2010 2000 2010

Table 6—Tariff rates in alternative scenarios (continued)

Philippines— Percent

Fuelwood and charcoal 3 2.5 2 2 2 2 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 3 2.5 2 2 2 2 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 3 2.5 2 2 2 2 0 0

Sawnwood 10 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 0

Veneer and plywood 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Particle board 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Fiberboard 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 3 2.6 2.1 1.7 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 3 2.6 2.1 1.7 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 3 2.6 2.1 1.7 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 3 2.6 2.1 1.7 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 10 8.6 7.1 5.7 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 3 2.6 2.1 1.7 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 10 8.6 7.1 5.7 0 0 0 0

Singapore—

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Veneer and plywood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Particle board 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fiberboard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Thailand—

Fuelwood and charcoal 1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 0

Sawnwood 5 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0 0

Veneer and plywood 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Particle board 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Fiberboard 20 16.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 7 6 5 4 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 7 6 5 4 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 7 6 5 4 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 7 6 5 4 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 35 30 25 20 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 35 30 25 20 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 35 30 25 20 0 0 0 0

17
Australia— Percent

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 5 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0 0

Veneer and plywood 5 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0 0

Particle board 5 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0 0

Fiberboard 5 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 5 4.3 3.6 2.9 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 5 4.3 3.6 2.9 0 0 0 0

New Zealand—

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 8 6.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 0 0

Veneer and plywood 8 6.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 0 0

Particle board 7.5 6.3 5 5 5 5 0 0

Fiberboard 6.5 5.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 7.5 6.4 5.4 4.3 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 7.5 6.4 5.4 4.3 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 7.5 6.4 5.4 4.3 0 0 0 0

Papua New Guinea—

Fuelwood and charcoal 40 33.3 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 40 33.3 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 40 33.3 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 0 0

Sawnwood 40 33.3 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 0 0

Veneer and plywood 100 83.3 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 0 0

Particle board 55 45.8 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 0 0

Fiberboard 55 45.8 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 40 34.3 28.6 22.9 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 40 34.3 28.6 22.9 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 40 34.3 28.6 22.9 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 40 34.3 28.6 22.9 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 11 9.4 7.9 6.3 0 0 0 0

Tariff rates

Base

scenario ATL scenario

Country and commodity 1997 1998 1999 2000 2004 2010 2000 2010

Table 6—Tariff rates in alternative scenarios (continued)

18
Tariff rates

Base

scenario ATL scenario

Country and commodity 1997 1998 1999 2000 2004 2010 2000 2010

Table 6—Tariff rates in alternative scenarios (continued)

Europe:

European Uniona— Percent

Fuelwood and charcoal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saw logs and pulpwood 1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 0

Industrial roundwood (other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sawnwood 2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0 0

Veneer and plywood 8.2 6.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 0 0

Particle board 8.2 6.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 0 0

Fiberboard 8.2 6.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 0 0

Mechanical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chemical and semichemical wood pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other fiber pulp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Waste paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Newsprint 4.5 3.9 3.2 2.6 0 0 0 0

Printing and writing paper 7.2 6.2 5.1 4.1 0 0 0 0

Other paper and paperboard 5.7 4.9 4.1 3.3 0 0 0 0

a Each country of the European Union is treated individually: Austria, Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France,

Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom.

Accelerated tariff liberalization scenario—Under the ATL scenario, tariffs are the

same as in the base scenario for 1998 and 1999. Beginning in 2000, the tariffs would be

eliminated for all commodities.

There are 180 countries in the GFPM. Changes in tariffs corresponding to each scenario

were assumed only for the countries listed below (For other countries, it was assumed

that there would be no change):

• America:

Canada, Mexico, United States, Brazil, and Chile

• Asia and Oceania:

Brunei, China, Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines,

Singapore, Thailand; Australia, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea

• European Union:

Austria, Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,

Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom

Thus, it was assumed that forest products would be traded more freely worldwide

between 1997 and 2010 in response to market responses to the tariff cuts. The

adjustment of trade flows between countries or regions, however, will likely take time,

thus inertia constraints were introduced to limit yearly trade changes to be within a

specified fraction of the previous year’s net supply (i.e., domestic supply plus imports,

19
also equal to domestic consumption plus exports). As detailed in the appendixes (see

footnote 1), this is an extension of earlier trade inertia constraints (Buongiorno and

Gilless 1984, Kallio et al. 1987, Zhang et al. 1997), meant to recognize the effect of the

size of the domestic market on trade (Devarajan et al. 1997).

Other assumptions governing the projected effects of the ATL agreement related to

changes in capacity, fiber input mix, and trade inertia. In the GFPM, capacity changes

are endogenous. They depend on changes in past production and on relative profitability

of additional capacity in different countries. Capacity data for the base year, 1997, were

estimated from the production data. Thereafter, global capacity growth is predicted with a

distributed-lag function linking capacity change to changes in past production. Then,

global capacity growth is allocated to different countries according to the shadow price

(the marginal value of one unit of additional capacity) revealed by the equilibrium

computations (Gilless and Buongiorno 1987, Zhang et al. 1993).

The technology, defined by input-output coefficients and associated manufacturing

costs, was held constant at the 1997 level, except for paper and paperboard. For paper

and paperboard, it was assumed that the amount of recycled paper used in newsprint,

printing and writing paper, and paper and paperboard would increase gradually between

1997 and 2010 to reach levels predicted by other studies (Ince 1994, Mabee 1998).

The GFPM simulates dynamic market equilibrium for the global forest sector. Every

year, demand, supply, trade, and prices are computed that clear markets for all products

and in all regions (static phase). Then, the model parameters are updated to reflect

exogenous and endogenous changes from one year to the next (dynamic phase).

Exogenous changes include economic growth, technical change, potential timber

supply, and trade inertia; they are assumptions. Endogenous changes include capacity

growth and availability of recycled fibers; they are determined by the model. The model

then computes the quantity-price equilibrium next year as shaped by the intervening

changes. It reiterates the static and dynamic phases for every year until the end of the

projection.

Static phase—The equilibrium for each year of the projection is obtained with an

optimization model that simulates world markets. It finds the production, consumption,

and trade that maximize the total value of consumption minus the total cost of

production and transport, for all products in all countries, in a given year. All the

variables refer to that year. Objective function:

max Z = ΣΣ Pik (Dik)dDik - ΣΣ Pik (Sik)dSik - ΣΣYikmik - ΣΣΣ c

jkTijk , (1)

where

i,j = country;

k = product;

P = price in U.S. $;

D = final product demand;

S = raw material supply;

Other Assumptions

Mathematical

Formulation of Global

Forest Product Model

Dik

i k 0

Sik

i k i k i j k

20

0
Y = quantity manufactured;

m = cost of manufacture;

T = quantity transported. In this version of the model, each country exports to the world

market and imports from the world market; and

c = cost of transportation, including tariff.

Demand for final products:

Dik = aikPik

s ik Xiαik Dik,-1hik 

, (2)

where

D-1 = demand in the previous year;

X = gross domestic product, in real U.S. $;

s,a,h = elasticities with respect to price, GDP, and past demand.

Wood supply and nonwood fiber supply:

Pik = Pik

0

Sik < Sik

U 

,

 (3)

where

P0 = cost of production, and

Su = potential supply.

Material balance:

 (4)

where

aikn = input of commodity k per unit of n, and

T

u

,TL = upper and lower bounds on imports and exports.

Price:

The market-clearing price is the shadow price of the material balance constraint (4).

Manufacturing capacity:

 (5)

21

Σ Tjik+Sik+Yik- Dik - ΣaiknYin- ΣTjik = 0 i,k

j n j

Tjik < Tijk < Tik

L u

i,j,k ,

Yik < Kik i,k ,
where

K = current capacity of production.

Waste paper recovery:

 (6)

where

r = recycled paper, and

SU = upper bound on recycled paper supply.

Dynamic phase—Yearly changes in the market equilibrium conditions are brought about by:

• Shifts of the demand curves, due to changes in X at the projected GDP growth rate.

• Shifts of the upper bounds on wood supply, S, at the assumed rate of growth of

potential supply.

• Changes of manufacturing coefficients m to reflect technical change, especially

increasing use of paper recycling.

• Changes of capacity, determined as follows:

At global level, capacity change is a function of changes in production during the past 3

years:

 (7)

then, global capacity change is allocated to each country in proportion of its production

level and the marginal value of capacity revealed by the shadow price of capacity in the

static phase.

 (8)

where

Δ = yearly change, and

π = shadow price of capacity (endogenous, from constraint (5).

• Changes in waste paper recovery:

22

Sir < Sir i,r , U

ΔKk = b1kΔYk,-1 + b2kΔYk,-2 + b3kΔYk,-3 ,

ΔKik =  ΔKk ,

Yikπ

ΣYik π

j
 (9)

where

wikr = maximum possible recovery rate (exogenous).

• Changes in tariff:

 (10)

where

t = the ad valorem tariff rate, in percentage.

• Trade inertia:

 (11)

where

e = the absolute value of the maximum yearly change in the ratio of import or export to

net supply (exogenous).

The outlook presented here corresponds to the scenario with ATL. The purpose is to

compare the projections from 1997 to 2010 with past trends from 1965 to 1997. The

detailed projections under this scenario are in appendixes 1 through 4 (see footnote 1),

where they also are compared to projections without the ATL (see also “The Effects of

Tariff Liberalization, 1997-2001”).

The global forest sector has expanded greatly during the last three decades, and overall

trends show a rising production, domestic consumption, and trade. In most parts of the

world, the major measurable factors affecting consumption of forest products are general

economic growth and prices. Many other influences, however, are relevant and reflected

indirectly by the GDP and price elasticities: level of residential investment, technical and

economic competitiveness of sawnwood and panels in the building sector, development

in electronic media, competitiveness of paper and paperboard for packaging, for

example.

Projections with

Accelerated Tariff

Liberalization,

1997-2010

23

Sir = ΣwikrDik,-1 ,

k

U

c

ij = cij,-1 + (tj

 - tj,-1)Pjk,-1 ,

Tijk = ( + e

ijk)Nik,-1

Tijk,-1

L

Nik,-1

NNik = Sik + ΣT

Jik= Dik + ΣTijk ,

j j

Tijk = ( + e

ijk)Nik,-1

Tijk,-1

U

Nik,-1
Total consumption of roundwood in the world has increased almost 50 percent between

1961 and 1997, from 2.2 billion m3 to nearly 3.4 billion m3. The projections show that the

world demand for wood will continue to rise, especially in Asia where rapidly growing

economies are concentrated (fig. 2). According to the projections, the world total roundwood consumption would reach 3.6 billion m3

 by 2000 and 4.4 billion m3 by 2010, an

increase of 8 percent and 29 percent, respectively, from the 1997 level. In 1997, Asia

and Europe were net importers of roundwood. By 2010, the projections show that all

regions will retain their trading status, but North and Central America will become net

importer (fig. 3). This reflects, in part, the effects of timber harvest restrictions

implemented in the United States.

The world total consumption of fuelwood and charcoal increased 61 percent from 1

billion m3 in 1965 to about 1.8 billion m3 in 1997. The projections show that the world

demand for fuelwood and charcoal will continue to rise, especially in Asia and Africa

Figure 3—Net trade of roundwood.

Figure 2—Consumption of roundwood.

Fuelwood and Charcoal

24

Roundwood
(fig. 4). Growth would occur however, at a slower rate than in the past decade, in all

regions. In North and Central America, Oceania, and Europe, fuelwood consumption is

expected to decrease slightly in the next 13 years.

Between 1965 and 1997, because of moderate growth in population and rapid growth in

the economy, world consumption of industrial roundwood has shown sustained

increases. Total consumption was about 1523 million m3 in 1997, about one-third above

the 1965 level. According to the projections, the world industrial roundwood consumption

would reach 2039 million m3 by 2010, an increase of 34 percent from the 1997 level

(fig. 5). Because of the regional imbalance between production and consumption, there

would be an increase in trade. The trade deficit of Asia would increase from 56 million in

1997 to 68 million m3 in 2010, and the trade deficit of Europe would decrease slightly

(fig. 6). Exports of South America are projected to almost double, whereas North and

Central America would become a net importer in 2010.

Figure 4—Consumption of fuelwood.

Figure 5—Consumption of industrial roundwood.

Industrial Roundwood

25
Figure 6—Net trade of industrial roundwood.

Figure 7—Consumption of sawnwood.

Sawnwood and sleepers (sawnwood in short) includes coniferous and nonconiferous

species. The world sawnwood consumption rose slightly, from 383 million m3 in 1965 to

441 million m3 in 1997. In 1990, it reached its peak, 508 million m3, and then dropped

sharply until 1994 (fig. 7). This was largely due to the decrease in the consumption of the

former U.S.S.R, which consumed only about one-fourth of its 1990 consumption in 1994.

From 1997 to 2010, global sawnwood consumption is projected to grow from 441 to 532

million m3.

Sawnwood

26
Figure 9—Consumption of wood-based panels.

Figure 8—Net trade of sawnwood.

In 1997, the three net exporting regions were the former U.S.S.R., North and Central

America, South America, and Oceania, respectively. They are projected to continue to

be net exporters by 2010 (fig. 8). By 2010, North and Central America is projected to

increase its surplus with 29 million m3 of net exports. Net exports of Oceania will almost

double, whereas the former U.S.S.R. and South America would stay at about their 1997

level. Symmetrically, the largest net importer is projected to continue to be Asia whose

net imports would reach 33 million m3 by 2010, followed by Africa at 5.5 million m3.

Wood-based panels—From 1965 to 1997, the demand for wood-based panels grew

faster than for any other forest product. World consumption went from 42 million m3 to

154 million m3, with an average growth of 4.1 percent per year. The 1997 distribution of

the world’s consumption by panel type was plywood and veneer, 40 percent; particle

board, 45 percent; and fiberboard, 15 percent. Wood-based panels consumption was

expected to grow during the next 13 years to 231 million m3 in 2010 (fig. 9).

27
Figure 10—Net trade of wood-based panels.

Figure 11—Consumption of veneer and plywood.

From 1965 to 1993, Asia, the former U.S.S.R., and South America were net exporters,

but Asia became a net importer after 1993. The projections are that by the year 2010,

Europe and Oceania will become the largest and the second net exporters, respectively,

whereas South America and the former U.S.S.R. would still be net exporters. Asia would

become by far the largest net importer, reaching 5.8 million m3 by 2010, whereas North

and Central America would nearly balance its trade (fig. 10).

Veneer sheets and plywood—The world consumption of veneer sheets and plywood

increased from 27 million m3 in 1965 to 60 million m3 in 1997. It is projected that world

consumption would increase from 60 million m3 in 1997 to 89 million m3 in 2010, for an

average annual growth rate of 3 percent (fig. 11). Although in 1997, Asia was the largest

net exporter and Europe the largest net importer, by 2010, South America is projected to

be the largest net exporter of plywood and veneer, and Europe would continue to be the

largest net importer (fig. 12).

28
Particle board—The world consumption of particle board grew fast, from 9 million m3

 in

1965 to 70 million m3 in 1997. Meanwhile, it is projected that the world particle board

consumption would continue to increase to 105 million m3 in 2010 (fig. 13). Europe

switched from being the largest net importer of particle board in 1989 to the largest net

exporter in 1994. In 1997, Asia was the largest net importer of particle board (fig. 14).

The 2010 projections show Europe to still be the largest net exporter, at a slightly higher

level than in 1997. Asia would continue to be the largest net importer, and its net

imports of particle board would increase steadily, reaching 2224 thousand m3 by 2010.

Figure 12—Net trade of veneer and plywood.

Figure 13—Consumption of particle board.

29
Fiberboard—The world consumption of fiberboard increased from 6.4 million m3

 in 1965

to 23 million m3 in 1997. (Asia had the largest consumption of fiberboard amoung the

regions.) The projections suggest that the world fiberboard consumption will continue

increasing from 23 million m3 in 1997 to 36 million m3 in 2010 (fig. 15). By 2010, Asia,

North and Central America, and Europe will be the three main consuming regions, respectively. The net exporting regions in 1997 (South America, North and Central America,

Oceania, Europe, and the former U.S.S.R.) are projected to still be net exporters in 2010

(fig. 16). The main net importing region would still be Asia by 2010, its deficit in fiberboard

trade increasing to about 3918 thousand M.T. in 13 years.

Figure 15—Consumption of fiberboard.

Figure 14—Net trade of particle board.

30
Fiber furnish—Total fiber furnish includes all wood pulp, waste paper, and other fiber

pulps. The world consumption of fiber furnish, which almost tripled from 1965 to 1997, is

projected to reach 490 million M.T. by 2010, from 289 million M.T. in 1997.

Wood pulp—Wood pulp includes mechanical pulp and chemical pulp. Wood pulp

consumption was expected to grow to 216 million m3 by 2010, from 158 million m3 in

1997 (fig. 17). In 1997, Asia was the largest net importer and North and Central America

the largest net exporter. The projections show the same rankings for 2010 (fig. 18).

Figure 16—Net trade of fiberboard.

Figure 17—Consumption of wood pulp.

31
Mechanical pulp—From 1997 to 2010, consumption of mechanical pulp is projected to

grow fastest in Asia and Africa, and slower in other regions (fig. 19). Oceania, the largest

net exporter in 1997, would continue to expand its world market share and be the largest

exporter by 2010 (fig. 20). North and Central America would be the second largest net

exporter, and Europe would still be a small net exporter by 2010, with little change. Asia

would continue to be the major importer and would increase its net imports by 2010 to

about 980,000 M. T.

Figure 18—Net trade of wood pulp.

Figure 19—Consumption of mechanical wood pulp.

32
Figure 21—Consumption of chemical/semichemical wood pulp.

Figure 20—Net trade of mechanical wood pulp.

Chemical pulp—Chemical pulp consumption is projected to increase the most in Africa

and Oceania, and least in North and Central America (fig. 21). North and Central America

would remain the largest net exporter of chemical pulp, and Europe would exceed Asia

to be the largest net importer (fig. 22). Net exports for South America are projected to

decrease slowly until 2010.

33
Figure 22—Net trade of chemical/semichemical wood pulp.

Figure 23—Consumption of other fiber pulp.

Other fiber pulp—Figure 23 indicates that consumption of other fiber pulp has

increased rapidly in Asia after 1984 because of large fiber needs caused by quick

development in the economy and limited wood fibers of the region. Other fiber pulp

consumption in Asia is projected to approach 38 million M.T. by 2010, larger than the

sum of mechanical and chemical pulp consumption.

34
Waste paper—According to the projection, consumption and production of wastepaper

would increase fast in Asia and South America (fig. 24). Asia would remain the largest

net importer, whereas North and Central America would remain the major net exporter.

The projections suggest that exports from the region will continue to increase fast (fig.

25). Net imports for Asia would increase by 50 percent by 2010. The net surplus of

Europe also would continue to increase steadily.

Figure 24—Consumption of wastepaper.

Figure 25—Net trade of wastepaper.

35
The paper and paperboard group includes newsprint, printing and writing paper, and other

paper and paperboard. Figure 26 shows that according to projections, Asian

consumption would exceed that of North and Central America by 2000. This is due

essentially to the faster rate of GDP growth for Asia presumed in the scenario. Figure 26

also shows the world consumption of paper and paperboard would be 500 million M.T. by

2010, from 294 million M.T. in 1997. Figure 27 suggests that North and Central America

would exceed Europe to become the largest net exporter of paper and paperboard by

2010, reaching 15 million M.T. Net imports for Asia would almost double in 13 years.

Figure 26—Consumption of paper and paperboard.

Figure 27—Net trade of paper and paperboard.

Paper and Paperboard

36
Newsprint—The growth of newsprint consumption would be faster than that of the

1990s in all regions, especially in Asia and the former U.S.S.R. (fig. 28). World newsprint

consumption would increase from 35 million M.T. in 1997 to 60 million tons in 2010. The

largest net exporter would still be North and Central America, followed by the former

U.S.S.R. (fig. 29). Asia would remain the largest net importer and is projected to

increase its net imports by 37 percent from 1997 to 2010.

Figure 28—Consumption of newsprint.

Figure 29—Net trade of newsprint.

37
Printing and writing paper—Consumption of printing and writing paper is projected to

grow fastest in the former U.S.S.R. and Oceania. World printing and writing paper

consumption would increase from 88 million M.T. in 1997 to 163 million M.T. in 2010,

almost double in 13 years (fig. 30). The positions of Europe and South America as net

exporters would strengthen, though net exports would grow at a slower rate. The trade

deficit in printing and writing paper in Asia would reach nearly 3.6 million M.T. in 2010

(fig. 31).

Figure 30—Consumption of printing and writing paper.

Figure 31—Net trade of printing and writing paper.

38
Other paper and paperboard—Other paper and paperboard consumption is projected

to grow slower than printing and writing paper and newsprint. Asia would experience the

most increase (fig. 32). World consumption other paper and paperboard would increase

from 170 million M.T. in 1997 to 277 million M.T. in 2010. Asia would nearly double its net

imports by 2010. Net exports from North and Central America would continue to grow

almost linearly, whereas net exports from Europe would decrease to one-fifth of their

1997 level (fig. 33).

Figure 32—Consumption of other paper and paperboard.

Figure 33—Net trade of other paper and paperboard.

39
In market economies, prices determine, in part, the demand and supply of forest

products. Price levels are also critical in determining the feasibility of forestry and

industry projects. It is, therefore, useful that the method to predict consumption,

production, and trade also gives projections of the market clearing prices.

Industrial roundwood and sawnwood—Figure 34 presents historical trends and

projections for industrial roundwood and sawnwood prices in 1997 U.S. $ at the world

level. Historically, the price of sawnwood paralleled the price of industrial roundwood,

mainly because roundwood is a major part of the total cost of sawmilling, reaching as

high as 60 to 70 percent. The projections show that the relation between the two prices

will remain strong over the next 13 years.

Figure 35—Real world prices of wood-based panels.

Figure 34—Real world prices of solid wood products.

Price Trends with

Accelerated Tariff

Liberalization

40
The price projections suggest that the real price of industrial roundwood worldwide would

increase by $27 per m3 over the next decade, and would rise to about $130 per m3 by

2010. Because of the rising price of raw material, the price of sawnwood would increase

by $50 per m3. The price of sawnwood is projected to reach about $300 per m3 in 2010.

Wood-based panels—The price for wood-based panels fell between 1965 and 1997, as

shown in figure 35. This steady fall in price was made possible mostly by a reduction in

costs of production (new processes, economies of scale, cheaper raw material from

sawmill residues, for example). Among all panel products, the real price of veneer and

plywood declined more than that of particle board or fiberboard.

The projections show that the real prices of veneer and plywood, particle board, and

fiberboard should increase slightly during the next 13 years, almost in parallel with the

increasing price of industrial roundwood (fig. 34).

Paper and paperboard—For the pulp and paper sector, wood costs account for a

smaller share of total costs, notably because of high capital costs. Because the

technology is broadly similar throughout the world, however, wood cost is one of the

means whereby individual companies seek to gain a comparative advantage. To some

extent, therefore, the price trend of paper and paperboard also followed that of industrial

roundwood during the last three decades of the 20th century (fig. 36). The strong rise

after 1973 was due to high energy costs that declined subsequently.

The prices of paper and paperboard projected with the GFPM and under the ATL

agreement remain stable or increase slightly from 1997 to 2010. The price trend

corresponds to the raw material price trend, dampened by the increased use of waste

paper and other fiber pulp in paper and paperboard production worldwide and in Asia

particularly.

Figure 36—Real world prices of paper and paperboard.

41
Effects of

Accelerated Tariff

Liberalization

Agreement,

1997-2010

Africa 45 607 59 368 59 645 68 554 59 668 68 240 -0.5

North and Central America 472 122 603 287 668 147 772 411 669 264 776 478 0.5

United States 307 817 399 868 452 820 512 839 452 629 518 406 1.1

South America 84 432 121 134 127 437 151 138 127 444 152 703 1.0

Asia 270 609 333 458 398 565 527 799 398 626 523 054 -0.9

Oceania 18 837 24 205 25 190 31 048 25 201 32 662 5.2

Europe 235 898 317 445 342 345 399 352 341 592 405 281 1.5

Former U.S.S.R. 263 120 77 939 83 565 93 914 83 565 94 934 1.1

Developed, all 1 077 492 1 094 509 1 188 693 1 385 998 1 188 796 1 386 726 0.1

Developing, all 313 133 442 327 516 201 658 217 516 563 666 628 1.3

World 1 390 625 1 536 836 1 704 894 2 044 215 1 705 359 2 053 353 0.4

Table 7—Consumption of industrial roundwood (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 9 917 12 017 12 646 14 930 12 646 14 940 0.1

North and Central America 123 139 172 833 177 158 192 431 177 159 192 431 0.0

United States 101 196 148 259 151 755 163 692 151 755 163 692 0.0

South America 20 895 27 470 28 897 34 782 28 897 34 858 0.2

Asia 98 201 113 623 122 106 156 728 122 106 158 041 0.8

Oceania 6 104 6 580 6 787 7 550 6 787 7 546 -0.1

Europe 73 465 91 722 94 072 102 956 94 072 102 956 0.0

Former U.S.S.R. 91 314 17 307 17 563 20 941 17 563 20 924 -0.1

Developed, all 332 848 318 180 326 060 356 520 326 060 356 501 0.0

Developing, all 90 187 123 372 133 169 173 798 133 169 175 197 0.8

World 423 035 441 552 459 230 530 318 459 230 531 697 0.3

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Table 8—Consumption of sawnwood (thousand CUM)

42
Africa 1 634 2 081 2 291 3 121 2 287 3 095 -0.8

North and Central America 32 021 49 865 53 470 67 158 53 469 67 258 0.1

United States 27 399 44 121 47 260 58 943 47 260 59 035 0.2

South America 3 239 4 571 4 952 6 708 4 952 6 714 0.1

Asia 17 011 47 830 54 069 81 185 54 070 80 748 -0.5

Oceania 1 148 1 972 2 163 2 940 2 163 3 806 29.5

Europe 23 132 44 318 48 118 64 623 48 118 63 795 -1.3

Former U.S.S.R. 9 849 3 023 3 161 5 272 3 161 5 347 1.4

Developed, all 76 118 112 835 121 653 158 750 121 653 158 911 0.1

Developing, all 11 916 40 825 46 570 72 256 46 567 71 852 -0.6

World 88 034 153 660 168 223 231 006 168 220 230 763 -0.1

Table 9—Consumption of wood-based panels (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 932 1 782 1 986 3 086 1 988 3 121 1.1

North and Central America 58 994 74 185 79 960 94 119 79 971 93 884 -0.2

United States 45 539 59 285 61 481 70 800 61 481 70 879 0.1

South America 3 367 5 971 6 620 9 549 6 620 9 635 0.9

Asia 14 935 27 717 31 396 42 145 31 376 41 994 -0.4

Oceania 1 623 1 952 2 117 2 834 2 116 2 999 5.8

Europe 26 840 43 598 47 113 58 954 47 172 59 744 1.3

Former U.S.S.R. 7 463 3 000 3 309 4 890 3 309 4 852 -0.8

Developed, all 106 181 138 070 148 078 180 247 148 146 180 813 0.3

Developing, all 7 973 20 135 24 423 35 330 24 405 35 416 0.2

World 114 154 158 205 172 501 215 578 172 551 216 229 0.3

Table 10—Consumption of woodpulp (thousand MT)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 2 452 4 183 4 661 6 798 4 661 6 862 0.9

North and Central America 68 104 101 423 110 809 147 779 110 809 147 717 0.0

United States 60 706 89 502 97 598 127 786 97 598 127 525 -0.2

South America 6 417 11 382 12 567 18 025 12 567 18 641 3.4

Asia 32 665 95 050 113 190 199 913 113 203 198 634 -0.6

Oceania 2 449 3 853 4 329 6 290 4 329 6 574 4.5

Europe 35 054 74 595 81 706 114 967 81 706 115 305 0.3

Former U.S.S.R. 8 603 3 239 3 375 6 354 3 375 6 289 -1.0

Developed, all 130 307 212 098 232 904 321 481 232 904 321 351 0.0

Developing, all 25 437 81 627 97 733 17 645 97 745 178 671 0.0

World 155 744 293 725 330 637 500 127 330 650 500 022 0.0

Table 11—Consumption of total paper and paperboard (thousand MT)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

43
Africa 50 801 66 366 67 242 79 230 67 265 78 496 -0.9

North and Central America 492 415 613 534 675 936 772 261 677 053 769 403 -0.4

United States 327 095 416 092 467 872 524 504 467 681 525 018 0.1

South America 85 487 130 085 137 566 166 878 137 572 168 458 0.9

Asia 233 821 277 153 341 261 450 016 341 474 454 992 1.1

Oceania 27 930 41 285 43 665 57 561 43 653 60 874 5.8

Europe 217 168 291 482 314 855 376 814 313 973 383 151 1.7

Former U.S.S.R. 277 700 103 019 110 458 127 544 110 458 124 068 -2.7

Developed, all 1 047 723 1 072 919 1 166 592 1 361 907 1 166 821 1 363 013 0.1

Developing, all 337 599 450 005 524 390 668 396 524 627 676 428 1.2

World 1 385 322 1 522 924 1 690 983 2 030 303 1 691 448 2 039 441 0.5

Table 12—Production of industrial roundwood (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 7 650 8 350 8 565 9 364 8 564 9 425 0.7

North and Central America 132 302 181 091 194 210 217 211 195 094 221 358 1.9

United States 84 112 111 425 122 568 131 624 122 568 135 751 3.1

South America 21 993 30 285 31 696 37 098 31 690 36 961 -0.4

Asia 94 718 96 531 101 625 129 154 101 630 124 519 -3.6

Oceania 5 801 6 981 7 238 8 287 7 231 8 283 0.0

Europe 68 433 89 529 87 398 96 829 86 543 98 968 2.2

Former U.S.S.R. 98 200 25 819 25 533 29 410 25 512 29 218 -0.7

Developed, all 339 068 321 426 331 581 371 918 331 583 371 573 -0.1

Developing, all 90 029 117 160 124 683 155 434 124 681 157 158 1.1

World 429 097 438 586 456 264 527 352 456 264 528 731 0.3

Table 13—Production of sawnwood (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 1 361 1 805 2 006 2 732 2 018 2 793 2.3

North and Central America 31 756 50 756 55 180 72 429 55 039 71 084 -1.9

United States 26 224 38 502 41 608 53 953 41 465 52 649 -2.4

South America 3 574 6 306 6 879 8 134 6 896 8 852 8.8

Asia 19 005 45 837 51 197 75 369 51 197 75 364 0.0

Oceania 1 197 2 607 2 880 3 809 2 888 4 766 25.1

Europe 22 582 43 629 47 126 63 552 47 203 62 273 -2.0

Former U.S.S.R. 10 618 4 783 5 018 7 043 5 041 7 692 9.2

Developed, all 76 190 108 160 116 966 156 071 116 727 153 687 -1.5

Developing, all 13 903 47 563 53 319 76 996 53 555 79 137 2.8

World 90 093 155 723 170 286 233 067 170 283 232 824 -0.1

Table 14—Production of wood-based panels (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

44
Africa 1 013 2 253 2 374 3 480 2 374 3 336 -4.1

North and Central America 64 894 84 550 91 507 108 653 91 449 108 218 -0.4

United States 44 819 59 394 62 211 73 278 62 210 73 441 0.2

South America 4 237 9 375 9 493 12 132 9 489 12 203 0.6

Asia 11 893 19 431 21 994 32 581 21 991 32 818 0.7

Oceania 1 819 2 324 2 508 3 581 2 508 3 628 1.3

Europe 25 289 37 458 41 648 50 938 41 763 51 613 1.3

Former U.S.S.R. 8 063 3 879 4 042 5 404 4 041 5 478 1.4

Developed, all 109 727 140 979 152 228 185 884 152 291 186 009 0.1

Developing, all 7 481 18 291 21 338 30 885 21 324 31 285 1.3

World 117 208 159 270 173 565 216 768 173 615 217 294 0.2

Table 15—Production of woodpulp (thousand MT)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 1 713 3 162 3 646 5 942 3 649 6 005 1.1

North and Central America 72 379 109 037 122 216 163 438 122 229 163 144 -0.2

United States 56 839 86 274 97 110 128 219 97 110 128 528 0.2

South America 5 579 9 842 11 156 17 603 11 156 17 705 0.6

Asia 29 651 85 235 102 908 184 263 102 793 182 194 -1.1

Oceania 2 104 3 291 3 766 5 821 3 765 6 291 8.1

Europe 39 001 83 729 87 147 120 751 87 259 122 466 1.4

Former U.S.S.R. 8 733 3 823 4 192 6 704 4 192 6 611 -1.4

Developed, all 139 461 229 718 250 588 344 119 250 713 345 690 0.5

Developing, all 19 699 68 401 84 443 160 402 84 331 158 725 -1.0

World 159 160 298 119 335 031 504 521 335 044 504 415 0.2

Table 16—Production of total paper and paperboard (thousand MT)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 793 904 902 903 902 965 6.9

North and Central America 6 297 10 563 11 925 15 816 11 925 16 745 5.9

United States 3 021 2 019 2 214 2 536 2 214 2 543 0.3

South America 99 29 133 163 133 164 0.9

Asia 70 574 69 549 70 648 92 770 70 437 83 058 -10.5

Oceania 8 11 38 49 38 52 7.2

Europe 33 756 52 485 54 912 55 035 54 692 54 605 -0.8

Former U.S.S.R. 255 815 801 662 801 659 -0.4

Developed, all 94 288 111 185 114 762 131 981 114 264 122 759 -7.0

Developing, all 17 494 23 171 24 596 33 417 24 663 33 489 0.2

World 111 782 134 356 139 358 165 397 138 927 156 248 -5.5

Table 17—Import of industrial roundwood (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

45
Africa 3 169 4 950 5 286 6 385 5 287 6 387 0.0

North and Central America 26 303 47 814 41 723 48 699 41 723 45 113 -7.4

United States 22 918 43 610 37 093 42 420 37 093 38 846 -8.4

South America 1 453 702 808 1 182 808 1 142 -3.4

Asia 10 727 23 218 26 203 31 625 26 204 37 946 20.0

Oceania 1 075 847 970 1 364 977 1 373 0.7

Europe 27 412 37 498 40 555 39 703 41 447 42 861 8.0

Former U.S.S.R. 356 632 684 888 684 866 -2.5

Developed, all 59 397 97 945 96 738 102 932 97 637 108 856 5.8

Developing, all 11 098 17 716 19 491 26 915 19 493 26 832 -0.3

World 70 495 115 661 116 229 129 847 117 130 135 688 4.5

Table 18—Import of sawnwood (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 532 709 754 1 005 741 961 -4.4

North and Central America 2 636 10 472 11 165 11 872 11 307 13 383 12.7

United States 2 145 8 845 9 360 9 762 9 504 11 207 14.8

South America 231 460 490 644 492 644 0.0

Asia 2 034 18 926 21 256 30 210 21 403 31 140 3.1

Oceania 107 254 288 417 280 409 -1.8

Europe 7 429 16 565 18 721 23 860 18 702 25 882 8.5

Former U.S.S.R. 187 469 487 695 486 629 -9.6

Developed, all 10 469 34 968 38 601 46 400 38 922 51 112 10.2

Developing, all 2 687 12 887 14 559 22 302 14 489 21 935 -1.6

World 13 156 47 855 53 160 68 702 53 410 73 047 6.3

Table 19—Import of wood-based panels (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 319 306 325 460 327 497 8.1

North and Central America 3 804 6 291 6 840 7 094 6 841 7 015 -1.1

United States 3 414 5 704 6 184 6 188 6 185 6 015 -2.8

South America 437 783 886 1 046 891 1 084 3.6

Asia 3 176 9 786 11 086 11 478 11 079 11 327 -1.3

Oceania 279 214 246 246 246 293 19.1

Europe 8 079 15 169 15 186 18 584 15 155 19 100 2.8

Former U.S.S.R. 221 69 74 82 74 91 11.0

Developed, all 14 256 24 826 25 854 28 676 25 818 29 148 1.6

Developing, all 2 059 7 792 8 789 10 313 8 796 10 260 -0.5

World 16 315 32 618 34 643 38 989 34 614 39 408 1.1

Table 20—Import of woodpulp (thousand MT)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

46
Africa 6 182 7 902 8 500 11 579 8 500 11 221 -3.1

North and Central America 26 590 20 810 19 714 15 666 19 714 9 669 -38.3

United States 22 299 18 243 17 266 14 200 17 266 9 155 -35.5

South America 1 154 8 980 10 261 15 903 10 261 15 919 0.1

Asia 33 786 13 244 13 344 14 987 13 286 14 995 0.1

Oceania 9 101 17 091 18 514 26 561 18 490 28 264 6.4

Europe 15 026 26 522 27 422 32 497 27 073 32 475 -0.1

Former U.S.S.R. 14 835 25 895 27 693 34 292 27 693 29 793 -13.1

Developed, all 64 519 89 595 92 661 107 890 92 288 99 047 -8.2

Developing, all 42 155 30 849 32 785 43 595 32 727 43 289 -0.7

World 106 674 120 444 125 446 151 485 125 015 142 336 -6.0

Table 22—Export of industrial roundwood (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 897 1 504 1 515 1 515 1 512 1 531 1.1

North and Central America 9 531 18 285 17 415 20 475 17 415 20 395 -0.4

United States 8 054 14 381 13 315 15 682 13 315 15 085 -3.8

South America 1 175 3 382 3 355 3 249 3 355 3 669 12.9

Asia 4 253 18 971 19 136 26 522 19 284 27 644 4.2

Oceania 763 1 390 1 491 1 766 1 492 1 609 -8.9

Europe 11 970 38 681 43 157 59 383 43 304 59 993 1.0

Former U.S.S.R. 905 1 005 979 1 350 979 1 414 4.8

Developed, all 22 867 59 827 63 615 83 095 63 764 83 186 0.1

Developing, all 6 627 23 391 23 433 31 164 23 579 33 070 6.1

World 29 494 83 218 87 048 114 59 87 342 116 256 1.7

Table 21—Import of total paper and paperboard (thousand MT)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 902 1 283 1 205 819 1 205 872 6.5

North and Central America 35 466 56 072 58 775 73 479 59 659 74 040 0.8

United States 5 834 6 776 7 905 10 353 7 905 10 905 5.3

South America 2 551 3 517 3 607 3 499 3 601 3 244 -7.3

Asia 7 244 6 126 5 721 4 051 5 728 4 424 9.2

Oceania 772 1 248 1 421 2 101 1 421 2 110 0.4

Europe 22 380 35 305 33 880 33 575 33 918 38 873 15.8

Former U.S.S.R. 7 242 9 144 8 654 9 358 8 632 9 160 -2.1

Developed, all 65 617 101 191 102 259 118 330 103 159 123 928 4.7

Developing, all 10 940 11 504 11 004 8 551 11 005 8 794 2.8

World 76 557 112 695 113 263 126 880 114 164 132 722 4.6

Table 23—Export of sawnwood (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

47
48

Africa 158 483 500 658 500 674 2.4

North and Central America 13 806 25 899 28 822 36 134 28 835 35 822 -0.9

United States 4 187 11 153 12 827 16 115 12 827 16 087 -0.2

South America 337 1 842 1 945 2 827 1 945 2 732 -3.3

Asia 1 239 9 156 8 853 10 872 8 874 11 204 3.1

Oceania 418 828 929 1 297 929 1 326 2.3

Europe 15 917 47 815 48 598 65 167 48 857 67 155 3.1

Former U.S.S.R. 1 035 1 589 1 796 1 700 1 796 1 737 2.1

Developed, all 32 021 77 447 81 299 105 733 81 572 107 525 1.7

Developing, all 889 10 165 10 143 12 921 10 164 13 123 1.6

World 32 910 87 612 91 443 118 654 91 736 120 649 1.7

Table 26—Export of total paper and paperboard (thousand MT)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 259 433 469 616 471 659 7.0

North and Central America 2 371 11 363 12 876 17 143 12 877 17 208 0.4

United States 970 3 226 3 708 4 772 3 708 4 821 1.0

South America 566 2 195 2 417 2 070 2 437 2 782 34.4

Asia 4 028 16 933 18 383 24 394 18 530 25 757 5.6

Oceania 156 889 1 006 1 286 1 006 1 369 6.5

Europe 6 879 15 876 17 730 22 789 17 787 24 360 6.9

Former U.S.S.R. 956 2 229 2 343 2 466 2 366 2 974 20.6

Developed, all 10 541 30 293 33 915 43 721 33 996 45 888 5.0

Developing, all 4 674 19 625 21 309 27 043 21 477 29 220 8.1

World 15 215 49 918 55 224 70 764 55 473 75 108 6.1

Table 24—Export of wood-based panels (thousand CUM)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Africa 400 777 712 854 712 712 -16.5

North and Central America 9 704 16 656 18 388 21 627 18 320 21 349 -1.3

United States 2 694 5 813 6 914 8 665 6 914 8 577 -1.0

South America 1 307 4 187 3 759 3 630 3 761 3 652 0.6

Asia 134 1 500 1 684 1 914 1 694 2 152 12.5

Oceania 475 586 637 992 638 921 -7.1

Europe 6 528 9 029 9 721 10 567 9 747 10 969 3.8

Former U.S.S.R. 821 948 807 597 807 717 20.3

Developed, all 17 802 27 735 30 004 34 313 29 963 34 344 0.1

Developing, all 1 567 5 948 5 703 5 867 5 716 6 129 4.5

World 19 369 33 683 35 707 40 180 35 678 40 473 0.7

Table 25—Export of woodpulp (thousand MT)

Actual Projection

Base ATL Change (%)

Region 1980 1997 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010
The detailed effects of the ATL agreement, by individual product and country are in the

appendixes (see footnote 1). Tables 7 through 26 summarize the effects for the world, its

main regions, and the developed and developing group of countries.

As shown in tables 7 through 11, the world consumption of forest products would

change little because of the ATL agreement. The largest relative change at world level

would be in industrial roundwood, a 0.4-percent increase. This would be tied, in part, to

an increase of industrial roundwood consumption of about 1 percent in the United

States. Changes in the United States would be negligible for all other products.

The effects of the ATL on world production are the same as on world consumption, as

they should (see tables 12 through 16). The slight discrepancies between world

production and consumption are due to errors in trade statistics, which are maintained

constant throughout the projections. In the United States, there would be practically no

effect on production. The main changes in the United States would be a 3-percent

increase in sawnwood production under ATL, and a decrease of 2 percent in panel

production. Production of other products in the United States would be unchanged.

The effects of the ATL agreement would be much more important on trade, in relative

terms than on consumption and production. As shown in tables 17 through 21, world

imports of industrial roundwood would decrease by about 5.5 percent under ATL. The

main decrease (10 percent) would occur in Asia, mostly in Japan as shown by data in

the appendixes. The United States imports of industrial roundwood would be unaffected

by the agreement. World imports of all manufacture products would increase under the

ATL. World sawnwood and panels imports would rise by 5 to 6 percent, and those of pulp

and paper by 1 to 2 percent. United States imports of sawnwood would decrease by

about 8 percent, whereas those of pulp and paper would decrease by 3 to 4 percent. The

only increase in U.S. imports would be in wood-based panels, but it would be substantial

at nearly 15 percent.

At the world level, the effects of the ATL agreement on exports would be the same as

on imports, as they should, after adjustment for the discrepancies in import and export

statistics. The distribution of the changes by region, however, considerably differs. In

particular, whereas U.S. exports of industrial roundwood were unaffected by the ATL,

exports decreased by 35 percent. The major roundwood exporter, the former U.S.S.R.,

also would see its exports of industrial roundwood decrease by about 13 percent.

Instead, exports of sawnwood and panels from the U.S. would increase by 5 percent and

1 percent, respectively. Uunited States. exports of wood pulp would drop by 1 percent,

whereas exports of paper and paperboard would remain unchanged. The main gains in

exports, in relative terms, would occur in Asia, and to a lesser extent in Europe.

Consumption

Production

Imports

Exports

49
50

Preparation of this report was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Agriculture,

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, McIntire-Stennis grant N946, and

the School of Natural Resources, University of Wisconsin, Madison. The research

assistance of Wen-Shiuan Chao, Chia-Sheng Liu, and Bintang Simangunsong are also

gratefully acknowledged.

When you know: Multiply by: To find:

Cubic meters (m3) 35.315 Cubic feet

Metric tons (M.T.) 1.102 Short tons

English Equivalents

Acknowledgments
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products. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 51 p.

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Bourke, I.J.; Leitch, J. 1998. Trade restrictions and their impact on international trade in

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Buongiorno, J. 1978. Income and price elasticities in the world demand for paper and

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1: 65-80.

Council on Environment Quality. 1999. Request for public comment regarding the

economic and environmental effects of tariff elimination in the forest products sector.

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Devarajan, S.; Go, D.S.; Lewis, J.D. [and others]. 1997. Simple general equilibrium

modeling. In: Francois, J.F.; Reinert, K.A., eds. Applied methods for trade policy

analysis. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press. 560 p.

Food and Agriculture Organization. 1998a. FAO yearbook forest products. Rome.

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Gilless, J. K.; Buongiorno, J. 1987. PAPYRUS: a model of the North American pulp and

paper industry. Forest Science Monograph 28.

Ince, P.J. 1994. Recycling and long-range timber outlook. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-GTR-242.

Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain

Research Station. 23 p.

Kallio, M.; Dykstra, D.P.; Binkley, C. 1987. The global forest sector: an analytical

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49(193): 31-36.

Zhang, D.; Buongiorno, J.; Ince, P. 1993. PELPS III: a microcomputer priceendogenous linear programming system for economic modeling. Res. Pap. FPL-RP526. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products

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consumption, production and trade in the Asia-Pacific region. Working Paper No.

APFSOS/WP/12. Rome: Forestry Policy and Planning Division. [Pages unknown].

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Literature Cited

51
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