metropolitan area name # monitors

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 4 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA 3 Altoona, PA 1 Baltimore, MD 8 Boston-Lawrence-Worcester (eastern MA), MA 10 Boston-Manchester-Portsmouth, NH 8 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 2 Clearfield & Indiana Co.'s, PA 1 Erie, PA 1 Essex Co. (Whiteface Mt.), NY 2 Franklin Co., PA 1 Frederick Co., VA 1 Fredericksburg, VA 1 Greater Connecticut, CT 4 Greene Co., PA 1 Hancock, Knox, Lincoln & Waldo Co.'s, ME 4 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle, PA 3 Jamestown, NY 2 Jefferson Co., NY 1 Johnstown, PA 1 Kent & Queen Anne's Co.'s, MD 1 Lancaster, PA 1 Madison & Page Co.'s, VA 2 New York-N. New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-CT 24 Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA 3 Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-MD-DE 24 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley, PA 13 Portland, ME 5 Poughkeepsie, NY 3 Providence (all RI), RI 3 Reading, PA 2 Richmond-Petersburg, VA 4 Roanoke, VA 1 Rochester, NY 2 Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA 4 Springfield (western MA), MA 5State College, PA 2

Tioga Co., PA 1 Washington Co. (Hagerstown), MD 1 Washington, DC-MD-VA 17 York, PA 2 Youngstown-Warren-Sharon, OH-PA** 1 TOTAL 180

** Only the data from PA were consideredStatistical evaluation of the May 15 - September 29, 2002 BaseB1 CMAQ simulation across the OTR (including all of VA) Daily maximum 8-hour O3 at SLAMS/NAMS (180 sites) that are within a non-attainment county Daily averages computed from hourly data, require at least 16 valid hours per day (unless the daily

max concentration was at least 85 ppb) July 6-9 data were excluded because of the influence of the Quebec forest fires Only those predictions from hours with valid observed concentrations were included here Statistics were generated using two minimum thresholds of observed daily max O3 - 40 & 60 ppb

Statistics: observed average predicted average coefficient of determination, R2

normalized mean error root mean square error fractional gross error

mean absolute gross error

mean normalized gross error

mean bias

mean normalized bias

mean fractionalized bias normalized mean biasmetropolitan area name obs avg, ppbCMAQ avg, ppbR^2 NME, %RMSE, ppbFE, %MAGE, ppbMNGE, %

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 59.32 49.6 0.505 19.28 14.78 20.21 11.44 17.92 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA 63.86 59.690.737 11.16 9.23 11.95 7.13 11.21 Altoona, PA 62.24 57.2 0.586 12.64 10.88 13.37 7.87 12.3 Baltimore, MD 67.42 65.850.624 12.85 11.39 13 8.66 12.94 Boston-Lawrence-Worcester (eastern MA), MA 61.2 61.080.568 15.7 12.46 15.53 9.61 15.95 Boston-Manchester-Portsmouth, NH 58.4 53.680.559 15.22 11.57 15.73 8.89 14.88 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 63.88 54.46 0.629 17.85 14.3 18.97 11.4 17.04 Clearfield & Indiana Co.'s, PA 62.83 55.550.597 15.63 12.67 16.17 9.82 14.77 Erie, PA 61.48 59.18 0.67 13.18 10.14 13.57 8.11 13.29 Essex Co. (Whiteface Mt.), NY 61.09 46.91 0.389 25.17 19.02 27.6 15.38 23.43 Franklin Co., PA 71.34 58.250.607 18.96 16.52 20.39 13.53 17.91 Frederick Co., VA 62.88 60.350.536 11.69 9.71 11.84 7.35 11.48 Fredericksburg, VA 63.75 63.780.693 11.01 8.87 11.15 7.02 11.33 Greater Connecticut, CT 61.81 62.4 0.464 18.22 15.21 17.87 11.26 18.66 Greene Co., PA 62.35 58.96 0.487 13.62 10.69 13.77 8.49 13.27 Hancock, Knox, Lincoln & Waldo Co.'s, ME 58.15 59.670.514 16.47 12.09 16.49 9.58 17.33 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle, PA 63.48 61.04 0.597 12.51 10.44 12.65 7.94 12.37 Jamestown, NY 63.91 55.950.685 16.06 12.81 16.59 10.26 15.25 Jefferson Co., NY 61.5 50.56 0.595 20.13 15.64 22.55 12.38 19.62 Johnstown, PA 60.89 58.61 0.598 13.18 9.95 13.85 8.02 13.43 Kent & Queen Anne's Co.'s, MD 66.24 62.880.617 13.12 10.85 13.24 8.69 12.86 Lancaster, PA 65.49 62.250.718 11.12 9.24 11.51 7.28 11.14 Madison & Page Co.'s, VA 60.99 55.11 0.355 14.71 11.69 15.06 8.97 14.02 New York-N. New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-CT 63.76 61.670.557 15.73 13.27 16.38 10.03 16.08 Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA 62.77 57.1 0.446 17.23 13.94 18.45 10.82 16.84 Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-MD-DE 65.27 63.280.635 12.72 10.67 13 8.3 12.94 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley, PA 62.94 59.270.572 14.54 11.75 15.29 9.15 14.66 Portland, ME 58.69 56.970.579 15.85 11.84 16.1 9.3 16.08 Poughkeepsie, NY 59.99 56.51 0.591 14.75 11.94 14.89 8.85 14.35 Providence (all RI), RI 63.24 66.070.609 14.05 11.47 13.8 8.89 14.75 Reading, PA 63.06 62.030.697 11.3 8.76 11.6 7.12 11.63 Richmond-Petersburg, VA 66.35 60.52 0.548 13.92 11.96 14.35 9.24 13.43 Roanoke, VA 62.84 57.570.539 12.56 10.51 12.85 7.89 12.03 Rochester, NY 61.19 56.390.585 15.38 11.98 15.64 9.41 14.88 Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA 61.76 54.070.594 16.02 12.55 16.94 9.89 15.39 Springfield (western MA), MA 60.12 55.62 0.583 14.58 11.33 14.99 8.77 14.23State College, PA 63.64 56.580.598 13.76 11.58 14.17 8.76 12.98

Tioga Co., PA 61.77 50.90.541 19.16 14.8 20.22 11.83 17.89 Washington Co. (Hagerstown), MD 65.53 61.62 0.698 10.96 9.19 11.56 7.18 11 Washington, DC-MD-VA 65.73 64.26 0.603 13.02 10.84 13.35 8.56 13.34 York, PA 64.52 60.86 0.655 11.39 9.55 11.76 7.35 11.18 Youngstown-Warren-Sharon, OH-PA** 64.38 57.25 0.71 14.39 11.89 14.98 9.26 13.73

** Only the data from PA were consideredMB, ppbMNB, %MFB, % NMB, %N

-9.71 -14.11 -16.72 -16.38 362 -4.17 -5.79 -6.89 -6.53 314 -5.03 -6.82 -8.29 -8.09 108 -1.57 -0.99 -2.38 -2.33 901 -0.12 1.63 -0.36 -0.19 753 -4.72 -6.18 -7.99 -8.08 567 -9.43 -13.04 -15.3 -14.76 218 -7.28 -9.58 -11.39 -11.58 106 -2.3 -2.1 -3.42 -3.75 109 -14.18 -20.82 -25.19 -23.21 185 -13.09 -17.08 -19.64 -18.35 119 -2.52 -2.17 -3.31 -4.01 112 0.02 1.73 0.76 0.03 117 0.59 2.9 0.1 0.95 352 -3.39 -3.88 -5.27 -5.43 120 1.52 4.54 2.26 2.61 286 -2.44 -2.09 -3.35 -3.84 319 -7.96 -10.29 -12.04 -12.45 228 -10.95 -16.88 -20.03 -17.8 105 -2.28 -2.63 -4.04 -3.74 108 -3.36 -2.87 -4.11 -5.07 117 -3.24 -3.79 -4.8 -4.95 113 -5.88 -7.56 -9.21 -9.64 240 -2.09 -2.01 -4.23 -3.282154 -5.67 -7.62 -10.04 -9.03 317 -1.99 -1.11 -2.47 -3.052522 -3.67 -4.39 -6.17 -5.831495 -1.72 -1.23 -3.23 -2.93 347 -3.47 -3.44 -5.16 -5.79 279 2.83 6.07 4.37 4.48 246 -1.04 -0.25 -1.32 -1.65 215 -5.83 -6.99 -8.48 -8.78 445 -5.27 -6.72 -7.97 -8.39 121 -4.8 -5.82 -7.49 -7.85 165 -7.68 -10.99 -12.9 -12.44 415 -4.51 -5.74 -7.37 -7.5 426-7.05 -9.61 -11.03 -11.08 221

-10.86 -15.76 -18.22 -17.59 115 -3.91 -4.8 -5.86 -5.96 114 -1.47 -0.43 -1.84 -2.241892 -3.66 -4.38 -5.43 -5.68 217 -7.13 -9.43 -10.95 -11.08 112metropolitan area name obs avg, ppbCMAQ avg, ppbR^2 NME, %RMSE, ppbFE, %MAGE, ppbMNGE, %

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 75.58 57.16 0.363 24.48 21.12 28.07 18.51 23.94 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA 75.75 69.84 0.502 10.69 10.41 11.18 8.1 10.41 Altoona, PA 75.46 66.06 0.294 14.04 14 15.71 10.6 13.86 Baltimore, MD 77.86 73.98 0.47 12.58 12.5 12.91 9.79 12.49 Boston-Lawrence-Worcester (eastern MA), MA 78.03 73.82 0.358 14.87 14.32 15.3 11.61 14.72 Boston-Manchester-Portsmouth, NH 76.4 64.650.443 16.48 15.46 18.08 12.59 16.04 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 77.59 63.630.411 19.03 17.74 20.89 14.77 18.33 Clearfield & Indiana Co.'s, PA 76.07 62.81 0.377 18.29 16.36 20.28 13.91 17.91 Erie, PA 79.26 72.270.423 12.22 12.46 12.85 9.68 11.88 Essex Co. (Whiteface Mt.), NY 76.83 52.87 0.24 31.19 26.43 36.72 23.96 30.25 Franklin Co., PA 78.18 62.4 0.419 20.42 18.58 22.74 15.96 19.77 Frederick Co., VA 73.77 66.56 0.303 12.29 11.5 13.09 9.07 11.99 Fredericksburg, VA 75.24 72.52 0.505 10 9.75 10.07 7.52 9.75 Greater Connecticut, CT 77.7 75.6 0.225 17.7 17.89 18.29 13.75 18.47 Greene Co., PA 73.04 65.09 0.3 14.99 12.86 16.2 10.95 14.92 Hancock, Knox, Lincoln & Waldo Co.'s, ME 75.74 72.30.323 12.82 12.13 13.17 9.71 12.68 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle, PA 74.8 69.1 0.325 12.71 12.08 13.2 9.51 12.34 Jamestown, NY 77.45 63.770.554 18.14 16.29 19.78 14.05 17.56 Jefferson Co., NY 76.66 61.34 0.335 21.2 19.85 23.56 16.25 20.45 Johnstown, PA 73.76 68.680.348 12.94 11.67 14.04 9.54 13.02 Kent & Queen Anne's Co.'s, MD 76.37 68.990.442 13.47 12.41 14.16 10.29 13.11 Lancaster, PA 76.6 70.750.569 10.85 10.27 11.38 8.31 10.71 Madison & Page Co.'s, VA 71.75 59.44 0.152 17.97 15.22 19.89 12.89 17.55 New York-N. New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-CT 78.25 73.41 0.324 14.78 14.93 15.69 11.56 14.82 Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA 75.31 64.530.367 18.62 17.41 20.99 14.03 18.38 Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-MD-DE 77.38 71.450.498 12.05 11.68 12.71 9.33 11.9 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley, PA 77.23 70.050.316 14.1 13.73 15.19 10.89 13.97 Portland, ME 78.53 72.42 0.351 14.83 14.24 15.57 11.65 14.69 Poughkeepsie, NY 77.21 67.44 0.445 15.75 15.56 16.91 12.16 15.17 Providence (all RI), RI 77.47 77.650.352 11.87 11.6 11.88 9.2 12.06 Reading, PA 75.59 72.070.458 10.63 9.3 10.99 8.03 10.6 Richmond-Petersburg, VA 75.36 65.96 0.403 14.99 14.03 16.13 11.29 14.57 Roanoke, VA 73.4 63.630.277 13.72 12.77 14.75 10.07 13.26 Rochester, NY 79.47 67.71 0.395 16.2 15.81 17.21 12.87 15.4 Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA 75.07 62.80.357 17.57 15.78 19.28 13.19 17.1 Springfield (western MA), MA 75.52 65.26 0.468 15.49 14.5 16.8 11.7 15.04State College, PA 73.88 63.24 0.281 15.51 14.3 16.75 11.46 14.95

Tioga Co., PA 74.08 57.26 0.222 22.7 19.31 25.26 16.82 21.88 Washington Co. (Hagerstown), MD 75.71 69.22 0.568 10.54 9.88 11.07 7.98 10.32 Washington, DC-MD-VA 76.04 71.24 0.491 12.19 11.54 12.71 9.27 12.09 York, PA 74.37 67.94 0.459 11.7 10.9 12.26 8.7 11.41 Youngstown-Warren-Sharon, OH-PA** 77.85 66.22 0.508 15.69 14.91 17.09 12.21 15.21

** Only the data from PA were consideredMB, ppbMNB, %MFB, % NMB, %N

-18.42 -23.8 -27.94 -24.38 141 -5.91 -7.32 -8.25 -7.8 169 -9.4 -12.18 -14.1 -12.45 51 -3.88 -4.41 -5.68 -4.98 555 -4.21 -4.55 -6.19 -5.4 322 -11.75 -14.84 -16.92 -15.38 197 -13.96 -17.12 -19.73 -17.99 111 -13.26 -16.91 -19.34 -17.43 54 -6.99 -7.85 -9.12 -8.82 43 -23.96 -30.25 -36.72 -31.19 77 -15.78 -19.51 -22.49 -20.18 88 -7.21 -9.12 -10.37 -9.77 58 -2.73 -3.15 -3.92 -3.62 64 -2.1 -1.38 -4.21 -2.71 159 -7.95 -10.38 -12.03 -10.88 62 -3.44 -3.82 -5.08 -4.54 107 -5.7 -6.77 -8 -7.62 176 -13.68 -16.98 -19.22 -17.66 118 -15.32 -19.01 -22.28 -19.98 47 -5.08 -6.72 -8.11 -6.89 51 -7.39 -8.97 -10.25 -9.67 73 -5.85 -7.28 -8.19 -7.64 65 -12.31 -16.65 -19.04 -17.15 116 -4.84 -5.58 -7.5 -6.181087 -10.78 -14.23 -17.19 -14.32 155 -5.93 -7.12 -8.28 -7.671411 -7.18 -8.58 -10.25 -9.3 707 -6.11 -6.71 -8.4 -7.78 119 -9.78 -11.58 -13.53 -12.66 112 0.17 1.06 -0.07 0.22 119 -3.53 -4.15 -4.94 -4.66 112 -9.39 -11.76 -13.5 -12.46 274 -9.78 -12.84 -14.34 -13.32 64 -11.77 -13.76 -15.63 -14.8 62 -12.27 -15.83 -18.07 -16.35 198 -10.26 -12.98 -14.83 -13.58 174-10.64 -13.76 -15.6 -14.41 125

-16.82 -21.88 -25.26 -22.7 56 -6.48 -8.17 -9.03 -8.56 67 -4.8 -5.78 -6.95 -6.311142 -6.43 -8.01 -9.05 -8.64 127 -11.63 -14.34 -16.23 -14.94 59