Population, Resources, and Conflict

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STRATEGIC FORUM

INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES

Number 7, September 1994

Population, Resources, and Conflict

Patrick Clawson

Workshop Summary

In coming decades, population shifts and resource pressures are more likely to exacerbate existing

political conflicts rather than to directly trigger them. The balance between population, resources, and

the environment is likely to improve in the next 20 years as a result of decreasing population growth

rates and increasing attention to environmentally sustainable development. Tensions will persist,

particularly over transborder resources such as rivers that flow between countries. One issue likely to

involve the U.S. military more and more is mass movements ofrefugees.

Population

We have become accustomed to hearing about how quickly the global population is doubling. That is

now changing: the three- hundred-year world population boom appears to be entering its final

generation. The World Bank projects that the next doubling ofthe global population will take 150 years,

until 2150.

The reason for the change is simple: a fall offin birth rates. As a global average, birth rates have

declined by one third since the mid-1960s: women formerly had six children on average, but only four

by the beginning ofthe 1990s. The lower number of children per woman started in the industrial

countries, but spread by the 1970s into Latin America and China; by the 1980s, into South Asia; and in

the 1990s into Africa and the Middle East. The main factors behind what is called the demographic

revolution have been access to contraception, higher incomes, and ~ most especially - education for

women.

That is the good news. The bad news is that, because ofthe large number ofwomen reaching

child-bearing age, the absolute number of people being added to the world population will remain high

for another 20 years. If contraception becomes more available, and ifwomen decide to delay

childbearing, population can be held to the low scenario shown in the graph on page 2. Ifprogress slows,

population growth will be at the high scenario, also shown in the graph. The key issue for public policy

is how to reduce this "population momentum" so that world population increases by less than the 80-85

million per year projected for 1995-2015.

As a result ofthe demographic revolution, the globe is turning grey. That is, the average age of human

beings is increasing. Today, there are about two people under 20 years old for each person 45 or older. In

thirty years, the two groups will be of almost equal size.

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Population, Resources, and Conflict

...conventional wisdom is that the world is running out ofmany natural resources.... the

evidence suggests that mineral and agriculturalproducts are, ifanything, becoming

more readily available.

The greying ofthe globe has considerable socioeconomic significance. As birth rates slow, there is a

drop in the proportion ofthe population who are children. As this occurs several decades before the

number of elderly increases, there is a period during which the share ofthe population who are of

working age is high (there being few children and few elderly). That is both an opportunity ~ a large

supply ofpotential workers -- and a challenge -- a need to create jobs. This situation describes China

today and will characterize many developing nations soon. If handled well, the result can be rapid

economic growth; if handled poorly, social unrest caused by youth unemployment will follow.

In succeeding decades, the proportion ofthe elderly in society will rise. To sustain themselves after their

productive years, the elderly will need to have savings to draw on. They will have too few children and

grandchildren to be able to count on them for support. Generating those savings is a major challenge

facing many societies around the world. Adequate savings will provide funds for growth now and for

sustaining the elderly later, while a savings shortfall could lead to unrest later as the elderly's needs place

a heavier and heavier burden on the rest ofsociety.

Whether changes in population dynamics lead to social and political conflict depends upon the adaptive

capacity ofsociety, including the structure ofthe social and political system. It would be inappropriate to

jump from demographic facts to conclusions about whether or not a country will experience social

conflict.

M3 Resources

The conventional wisdom is that the world is running out of many natural resources. By contrast,

in the view of most economists, the evid- ence suggests that mineral and agricultural products are, if

anything, becoming more readily available. Economists look at the real (inflation-adjusted) price as the

best measure of economic availability or scarcity. Over the last 200 years, the long-term,

inflation-adjusted price trends for a whole series ofmineral and agricultural products have been stable

and declining. The explanation for the price stability is the effect oftechnology on production costs. In

some sense the global situation can be viewed as a race between technology and demand. Over the past

two hundred years, technology has been winning.

There is no guarantee that the trend for stable commodity prices will persist for the next 20 years. But

there appears little reason to expect a shift in the fundamental balance that has allowed for the expansion

ofraw material use without increased real resource prices. As the National Academy of Sciences

concluded in 1986, "The scarcity of exhaustible resources is at most a minor restraint on economic

growth."

Environment

The world is increasingly beset by problems that involve the "global commons," that is, areas like the

oceans and the atmosphere that are in some sense owned collectively by all rather than being the

sovereign territory of any single nation. As is typical with a resource available without charge, the global

commons has been overused without adequate concern for its long-term maintenance. Problems include

thinning ofthe ozone layer, global warming, and depletion offishing stocks.

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The most promising means to address the problems ofthe global commons is through international

agreements, such as the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, or the

1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, there is considerable potential for conflict

among states about how to address global environmental problems. Some countries may wish to be "free

riders." A country may recognize that something should be done about a particular problem, but choose

not to do what it may acknowledge (in private) is its fair share, believing that even if it does not

participate, other countries will satisfactorily address the problem. A more complex variant occurs when

a country believes that the global community is willing to induce its cooperation with various types of

pay-offs.

In order to secure compliance from non-cooperating countries, the most likely route is to use trade

restrictions and privileges. In other cases, the majority of countries may simply feel that it is not worth

the effort to gain cooperation and will simply absorb the additional costs among themselves. Military

force is not likely to be useful in most cases because ofthe diffuse source ofthe problem and the likely

judgment that the loss of life would not be worth the benefit gained.

Transborder Resources

Some resources naturally cross state borders. An important example is water. About 200 river basins are

shared by two or more countries. Shared watersheds comprise about 47 percent ofthe global land area

and more than 60 percent ofthe area on the continents ofAfrica, Asia, and South America.

International law provides several opposing doctrines relating to property rights over international

waters: the doctrines ofunlimited territorial integrity, equitable and reasonable use, and unlimited

territorial sovereignty. However, the fact remains that the strongest, most clever, and most

advantageously positioned countries can claim and use the resource with little concern for the impacts on

others.

The outlook for agreements to share water is not particularly good. Institutions controlling water use

have their roots in an era when the resource was not considered to be scarce. Cultural and religious

considerations view water as too important or too scarce to have its use determined by the impersonal

outcome ofmarkets. There are relatively few precedents that demonstrate the potential advantages of

efficient, integrated management of an entire river basin.

Refugees

The number ofrefugees in the world rose from 2.8 million in 1976 to over 19 million in 1994. During

the next 20 years, the continuation of huge disparities between rich and poor countries, as well as rising

nationalism, violent fragmentation of existing states, and the formation of new national entities will

generate mass flows ofrefugees.

The numbers ofrefugees and asylum-seekers have overwhelmed the willingness of countries to provide

temporary safe havens, much less permanent homes. In the future, there will be greater emphasis on

preventing the conditions that lead to refugee flows, as well as on repatriating refugees. Both require

dealing with the problems in the country of origin. In other words, the response to the refugee problem

may have to be increasing intervention in failed states.

The U.S. military will be working alongside relief agencies to meet humanitarian exigencies in conflict

zones. While the military has instant access to a range ofmaterial and logistical resources in

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transportation, communications, and medical services which are simply not available to humanitarian

organizations, the objectives and working methods ofthe two groups of actors are different, and, in some

cases, contradictory. The problem becomes acute when the military provides lightly armed escorts,

instructed to fire only in self-defense, tasked with the mission of countering hostile action sufficiently

well to ensure relief delivery by humanitarian groups.

In the struggle to provide aid to the displaced and other war victims, the resolution ofthe root causes of

the conflict can easily become increas-ingly peripheral. If humanitarian action is not accompanied by the

necessary political will or action to resolve inter-ethnic conflicts, military forces and relief agencies will

become bogged down in long-standing, protracted humanitarian operations. On the other hand, ifthe

military becomes involved in addressing the political issues that led to the initial conflict, then it could

quickly be seen as partisan player.

Policy Implications

Population, resource, and environment trends provide little reason to expect a breakdown in public order

in numerous states. It would therefore be inappropriate to structure the U.S. military to respond to

chaotic conditions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The issue in which the U.S. military is most likely

to get involved is refugee relief, and that may well require increasing intervention in failed states before

problems escalate out of control.

Population, resources, and the environment pose serious problems for the U.S. and the world

community. However, there is relatively little direct role for the military in addressing these problems.

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