INTRODUCTION

Will we have a white Christmas? It's

an age-old question that occurs to

almost everyone this time of year. 

The National Climatic Data Center

(NCDC) has created a new report which

contains updated maps and tables

showing the percent probabilities for a

snow depth of at least 1 inch on

Christmas morning, as well as the

probabilities for a depth of at least 5

inches and 10 inches. The "First

Order" Summary of Day Dataset for the

period of 1961-1990 was used to

compute these statistics. Only

stations with at least 25 years of Table 1 presents city-by-city

data were used and the '61-'90 period probabilities for at least 1, 5, and

was chosen to coincide with the 10-inch depths on Christmas morning. 

standard period for computing Figures 1 through 6 display these

climatological normals. probabilities for the continental U.S.

DISCUSSION

Following is a brief summary of our

findings:

 

Greatest probability for at least 1-

inch snow depth (continental U.S.): 

100% - Marquette MI

 Sault Ste Marie MI

 Hibbing MN

 International Falls MN

 Stampede Pass WA

Greatest probability for at least 5-

inch snow depth (continental U.S.):

100% - Stampede Pass WA

Greatest probability for at least 10-

inch snow depth (continental U.S.):

96% - Stampede Pass WA

Generally, the greatest probabilities

lie where they would be expected--over

the northern U.S. and in mountainous

areas. In defining a 'white Christmas'

as having a snow depth of at least 1

inch, the chances are 60% or better

over an area including much of the

northern Rockies, the northern Great

Plains, the Great Lakes area, and most

of New England. The chances are less

than 20% over most of the southern

third of the country excluding the

Rockies, along with the Pacific coast.

The 5 and 10-inch maps (Figures 3-6)

indicate areas where there is a greater

likelihood of encountering travel

problems due to heavy snow. However,

keep in mind that this is based on snow

depth and not necessarily on newly

fallen snow. Also, it is important to

remember that higher mountain areas

(e.g., elevation of 8000 feet in an

area averaging about 4000 feet) will

tend to have higher probabilities for

each of the 3 categories.

TABLES AND FIGURES

in map form with city-by-city plots and

with contours at 20 percent intervals. 

If you desire further data related to

these tables and figures, please

contact NCDC (phone 704-271-4800, fax

704-271-4876, internet

'orders@ncdc.noaa.gov'). This report,

including images, is also available in

color on our WWW homepage

(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). 
 Table 1

 Probability of snow depth on 

 Christmas Day greater than or 

 equal to values (in

inches)

 shown at top of column

 1 5 10 

 ALABAMA

 

 ANNISTON 0% 0% 0%

 BIRMINGHAM 0% 0% 0%

 HUNTSVILLE 3% 0% 0%

 MOBILE 0% 0% 0%

 MONTGOMERY 0% 0% 0%

 MUSCLE SHOALS 7% 0% 0%

 TUSCALOOSA 0% 0% 0%

 ALASKA

 

 ADAK 43% 23% 3%

 ANCHORAGE 90% 70% 37%

 ANNETTE 17% 10% 0%

 BARROW 100% 80% 30%

 BARTER ISLAND 100% 93% 39%

 BETHEL 87% 50% 13%

 BETTLES 100% 100% 100%

 BIG DELTA 97% 57% 23%

 COLD BAY 40% 10% 3%

 CORDOVA 63% 43% 20%

 FAIRBANKS 100% 100% 77%

 GULKANA 97% 83% 53%

 HOMER 67% 30% 13%

 JUNEAU 62% 31% 14%

 KENAI 80% 67% 37%

 KING SALMON 60% 20% 3%

 KODIAK 20% 0% 0%

 KOTZEBUE 100% 97% 77%

 MC GRATH 100% 100% 77%

 NORTHWAY 100% 93% 66%

 SITKA 27% 10% 3%

 ST PAUL ISLAND 53% 7% 0%

 TALKEETNA 100% 93% 79%

 YAKUTAT 83% 60% 40%

 ARIZONA

 

 FLAGSTAFF 56% 36% 12%

 PHOENIX 0% 0% 0%

 PRESCOTT 10% 3% 3%

 TUCSON 3% 0% 0%

 WINSLOW 20% 3% 0%

 YUMA 0% 0% 0%

 

 1 5 10

 

 ARKANSAS

 

 FORT SMITH 10% 0% 0%

 LITTLE ROCK 3% 0% 0%

 CALIFORNIA 

 

 ALAMEDA 0% 0% 0%

 BAKERSFIELD 0% 0% 0%

 BISHOP 3% 0% 0%

 BLUE CANYON 74% 48% 41%

 EUREKA 0% 0% 0%

 FRESNO 0% 0% 0%

 LEMOORE 0% 0% 0%

 LONG BEACH 0% 0% 0%

 LOS ANGELES 0% 0% 0%

 OXNARD 0% 0% 0%

 PASO ROBLES 0% 0% 0%

 RED BLUFF 0% 0% 0%

 SACRAMENTO 0% 0% 0%

 SALINAS 0% 0% 0%

 SAN DIEGO 0% 0% 0%

 SAN FRANCISCO 0% 0% 0%

 SANTA BARBARA 0% 0% 0%

 SANTA MARIA 0% 0% 0%

 STOCKTON 0% 0% 0%

 COLORADO

 

 ALAMOSA 60% 10% 0%

 DENVER 50% 13% 7%

 GRAND JUNCTION 40% 7% 0%

 PUEBLO 28% 3% 0%

 TRINIDAD 37% 3% 0%

 CONNECTICUT

 

 BRIDGEPORT 30% 10% 0%

 HARTFORD 57% 23% 3%

 DELAWARE

 

 WILMINGTON 13% 3% 3%

 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

 
 WASHINGTON 13% 7% 0% FORT WAYNE 47% 7% 0%

 FLORIDA SOUTH BEND 67% 37% 7%

 WEST LAFAYETTE 24% 8% 4%

 APALACHICOLA 0% 0% 0%

 DAYTONA BEACH 0% 0% 0% IOWA

 FORT MYERS 0% 0% 0% 

 JACKSONVILLE 0% 0% 0% CEDAR RAPIDS 39% 7% 0%

 KEY WEST 0% 0% 0% DES MOINES 50% 17% 7%

 MIAMI 0% 0% 0% DUBUQUE 62% 21% 7%

 ORLANDO 0% 0% 0% MASON CITY 57% 30% 17%

 PENSACOLA 0% 0% 0% SIOUX CITY 63% 13% 7%

 TALLAHASSEE 0% 0% 0% WATERLOO 70% 13% 3%

 TAMPA 0% 0% 0%

 WEST PALM BEACH 0% 0% 0% KANSAS

 GEORGIA CONCORDIA 24% 3% 3%

 DODGE CITY 27% 0% 0%

 ATHENS 0% 0% 0% GARDEN CITY 25% 0% 0%

 ATLANTA 0% 0% 0% GOODLAND 30% 3% 3%

 AUGUSTA 0% 0% 0% RUSSELL 20% 0% 0%

 BRUNSWICK 4% 0% 0% SALINA 11% 4% 4%

 COLUMBUS 0% 0% 0% TOPEKA 23% 3% 0%

 MACON 0% 0% 0% WICHITA 23% 0% 0%

 SAVANNAH 3% 0% 0%

 HAWAII 

 BOWLING GREEN 14% 3% 0%

 HILO 0% 0% 0% COVINGTON 17% 0% 0%

 HONOLULU 0% 0% 0% LEXINGTON 10% 3% 0%

 KAHULUI 0% 0% 0% LONDON 16% 12% 0%

 LIHUE 0% 0% 0% LOUISVILLE 13% 0% 0%

 IDAHO

 LOUISIANA

 BOISE 30% 10% 0% 

 BURLEY 38% 3% 3% BATON ROUGE 0% 0% 0%

 IDAHO FALLS 70% 30% 13% LAFAYETTE 0% 0% 0%

 LEWISTON 10% 0% 0% LAKE CHARLES 0% 0% 0%

 POCATELLO 40% 17% 0% MONROE 4% 0% 0%

 ILLINOIS SHREVEPORT 0% 0% 0%

 

 CHICAGO 40% 7% 0% MAINE

 MOLINE 47% 10% 0% 

 PEORIA 40% 10% 0% AUGUSTA 90% 52% 21%

 QUINCY 32% 7% 0% BRUNSWICK 80% 40% 17%

 ROCKFORD 57% 13% 3% CARIBOU 97% 77% 57%

 SPRINGFIELD 33% 7% 0% HOULTON 96% 74% 52%

 INDIANA LEXINGTON PARK 13% 10% 3%

 SALISBURY 14% 3% 0%

 EVANSVILLE 13% 3% 0%

 INDIANAPOLIS 30% 3% 0%

 

 KENTUCKY

 PADUCAH 17% 3% 0%

 NEW ORLEANS 0% 0% 0%

 PORTLAND 83% 43% 13%

 MARYLAND

 
 MASSACHUSETTS MILES CITY 57% 32% 4%

 MISSOULA 73% 20% 0%

 BOSTON 23% 17% 3%

 MILTON 55% 21% 7% NEBRASKA

 SOUTH WEYMOUTH 33% 13% 10% 

 WORCESTER 60% 27% 10% GRAND ISLAND 40% 10% 10%

 MICHIGAN NORTH PLATTE 33% 10% 0%

 OMAHA 44% 8% 4%

 ALPENA 83% 47% 13% SCOTTSBLUFF 47% 3% 0%

 DETROIT 50% 13% 0% VALENTINE 61% 14% 4%

 FLINT 63% 10% 0%

 GRAND RAPIDS 73% 37% 3% NEVADA

 HOUGHTON LAKE 82% 56% 0% 

 LANSING 73% 17% 0% ELKO 47% 13% 0%

 MARQUETTE 100% 86% 71% ELY 50% 13% 0%

 MUSKEGON 70% 37% 13% LAS VEGAS 0% 0% 0%

 PELLSTON 89% 69% 35% RENO 20% 3% 0%

 SAGINAW 61% 18% 0% WINNEMUCCA 37% 3% 0%

 SAULT STE MARIE 100% 80% 53%

 TRAVERSE CITY 87% 50% 17% NEW HAMPSHIRE

 MINNESOTA CONCORD 87% 57% 7%

 LEBANON 85% 70% 30%

 ALEXANDRIA 89% 41% 11% MOUNT WASHINGTON 93% 63% 27%

 DULUTH 97% 63% 43%

 HIBBING 100% 66% 41% NEW JERSEY

 INTERNATIONAL FALLS 100% 73% 53% 

 MINNEAPOLIS 73% 30% 13% ATLANTIC CITY 7% 3% 0%

 REDWOOD FALLS 62% 27% 8% MILLVILLE 14% 3% 0%

 ST CLOUD 73% 37% 10% NEWARK 23% 10% 0%

 MISSISSIPPI NEW MEXICO

 

 GREENWOOD 3% 0% 0% ALBUQUERQUE 3% 0% 0%

 JACKSON 0% 0% 0% CLAYTON 17% 0% 0%

 MCCOMB 0% 0% 0%

 MERIDIAN 0% 0% 0% NEW YORK

 MISSOURI ALBANY 63% 30% 13%

 BINGHAMTON 67% 43% 17%

 CAPE GIRARDEAU 18% 0% 0% BUFFALO 57% 23% 13%

 JOPLIN 18% 4% 0% GLENS FALLS 76% 59% 21%

 SPRINGFIELD 23% 7% 0% MASSENA 77% 47% 23%

 ST LOUIS 23% 3% 0% NEW YORK 10% 7% 0%

 MONTANA ROCHESTER 60% 23% 3%

 SYRACUSE 70% 47% 20%

 BILLINGS 63% 17% 0% UTICA 71% 46% 18%

 BOZEMAN 73% 17% 3% WATERTOWN 69% 41% 21%

 BUTTE 87% 17% 0%

 GLASGOW 77% 30% 0% NORTH CAROLINA

 GREAT FALLS 57% 17% 3% 

 HAVRE 61% 21% 4% ASHEVILLE 7% 0% 0%

 HELENA 67% 17% 0% CAPE HATTERAS 3% 3% 0%

 KALISPELL 80% 43% 3% CHARLOTTE 0% 0% 0%

 LEWISTOWN 76% 32% 12% CHERRY POINT 3% 3% 3%

 NORFOLK 57% 17% 7%

 

 

 POUGHKEEPSIE 45% 28% 7%
 GREENSBORO 10% 0% 0% WILLIAMSPORT 43% 10% 0%

 HICKORY 3% 0% 0%

 JACKSONVILLE 4% 4% 4% RHODE ISLAND

 NEW BERN 3% 3% 0% 

 RALEIGH 3% 0% 0% PROVIDENCE 37% 10% 0%

 WILMINGTON 3% 3% 3%

 NORTH DAKOTA 

 BEAUFORT 3% 0% 0%

 BISMARCK 87% 30% 0% CHARLESTON 3% 0% 0%

 FARGO 83% 37% 3% COLUMBIA 0% 0% 0%

 GRAND FORKS 89% 46% 7% FLORENCE 3% 0% 0%

 MINOT 79% 32% 14% GREENVILLE 3% 0% 0%

 WILLISTON 79% 31% 3%

 OHIO 

 ABERDEEN 59% 19% 0%

 AKRON 40% 7% 0% HURON 60% 27% 7%

 CINCINNATI 11% 4% 0% PIERRE 47% 10% 0%

 CLEVELAND 50% 17% 0% RAPID CITY 47% 7% 0%

 COLUMBUS 23% 0% 0% SIOUX FALL 67% 27% 7%

 DAYTON 27% 3% 0%

 FINDLAY 41% 0% 0% TENNESSEE

 MANSFIELD 47% 3% 0% 

 TOLEDO 57% 3% 0% BRISTOL 17% 3% 0%

 YOUNGSTOWN 50% 10% 0% CHATTANOOGA 3% 0% 0%

 ZANESVILLE 21% 3% 0% CROSSVILLE 14% 7% 3% 

 OKLAHOMA KNOXVILLE 10% 3% 0%

 MEMPHIS 7% 3% 3%

 MCALESTER 4% 0% 0% NASHVILLE 13% 3% 0%

 OKLAHOMA CITY 3% 0% 0% OAK RIDGE 7% 3% 0%

 TULSA 7% 0% 0%

 TEXAS

 OREGON 

 ABILENE 3% 0% 0%

 ASTORIA 3% 0% 0% AMARILLO 7% 0% 0%

 EUGENE 7% 0% 0% AUSTIN 0% 0% 0%

 MEDFORD 3% 0% 0% BEEVILLE 0% 0% 0%

 NORTH BEND 0% 0% 0% BROWNSVILLE 0% 0% 0%

 PENDLETON 13% 7% 0% COLLEGE STATION 0% 0% 0%

 PORTLAND 0% 0% 0% CORPUS CHRISTI 0% 0% 0%

 REDMOND 20% 7% 0% DALLAS 0% 0% 0%

 SALEM 3% 0% 0% DEL RIO 0% 0% 0%

 SEXTON SUMMIT 44% 33% 7% EL PASO 0% 0% 0%

 PENNSYLVANIA HOUSTON 0% 0% 0%

 KINGSVILLE 0% 0% 0%

 ALLENTOWN 30% 10% 3% LUBBOCK 3% 0% 0%

 ALTOONA 31% 3% 0% LUFKIN 0% 0% 0%

 BRADFORD 70% 37% 23% MCALLEN 0% 0% 0%

 DUBOIS 52% 28% 14% MIDLAND 0% 0% 0%

 ERIE 57% 23% 10% PORT ARTHUR 0% 0% 0%

 HARRISBURG 33% 10% 3% SAN ANGELO 0% 0% 0%

 PHILADELPHIA 10% 7% 3% SAN ANTONIO 0% 0% 0%

 PITTSBURGH 33% 7% 0% VICTORIA 0% 0% 0%

 WILKES-BARRE 43% 17% 3% WACO 0% 0% 0%

 SOUTH CAROLINA

 SOUTH DAKOTA

 JACKSON 7% 3% 0%

 GALVESTON 0% 0% 0%
 WICHITA FALLS 3% 0% 0% WYOMING

 UTAH CASPER 47% 10% 3%

 LANDER 77% 37% 17%

 CEDAR CITY 33% 7% 0% LARAMIE 48% 4% 0%

 MILFORD 46% 11% 0% ROCK SPRINGS 55% 10% 3%

 SALT LAKE CIT 53% 13% 3% SHERIDAN 83% 17% 7%

 VERMONT

 

 BURLINGTON 77% 50% 13%

 MONTPELIER 93% 72% 41%

 VIRGINIA

 

 LYNCHBURG 13% 3% 0%

 NORFOLK 3% 0% 0%

 RICHMOND 7% 0% 0%

 ROANOKE 17% 7% 0%

 STERLING 17% 10% 0%

 VIRGINIA BEACH 0% 0% 0%

 WALLOPS ISLAND 16% 0% 0%

 WASHINGTON

 

 BELLINGHAM 10% 7% 0%

 OLYMPIA 3% 0% 0%

 QUILLAYUTE 0% 0% 0%

 SEATTLE 7% 0% 0%

 SPOKANE 70% 30% 3%

 STAMPEDE PASS 100% 100% 96%

 WALLA WALLA 17% 3% 0%

 WENATCHEE 67% 43% 17%

 WHIDBEY ISLAND 7% 0% 0%

 WEST VIRGINIA

 

 BECKLEY 36% 7% 4%

 BLUEFIELD 24% 10% 0%

 CHARLESTON 30% 3% 0%

 ELKINS 35% 10% 0%

 HUNTINGTON 23% 0% 0%

 MARTINSBURG 24% 3% 3%

 MORGANTOWN 31% 0% 0%

 PARKERSBURG 24% 3% 0%

 WISCONSIN

 

 EAU CLAIRE 87% 33% 17%

 GREEN BAY 77% 40% 3%

 LA CROSSE 66% 28% 10%

 MADISON 67% 20% 7%

 MILWAUKEE 60% 10% 3%

 WAUSAU 93% 54% 25%

 

 WORLAND 59% 24% 3%