The Conflict in Abkhazia: A Georgian Perspective

*Professor Zaza Gachechiladze*
 About the Discussion
***Note:** Opinions, conclusions, andrecommendations expressed or implied in this paper are solely those of theauthors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Institutefor National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, theDepartment of Defense or any other government agency.
**The Conflict in Abkhazia**
The conflict in Abkhazia ended tragically in theautumn of 1993.  Some viewed the conflict as anethnic clash between Abkhazians and Georgians, butit was much more complex than that.  There weremany nationality groups involved, including ethnicAbkhazians, Georgians, Russians, the Confederationof North Caucasian Mountain Peoples, Armenians,and Turks.  Dr. Gachechiladze provided the followingbackground on the positions of these groups:
     Abkhazians for a long time were integrated withGeorgians.  For social reasons, Abkhazians werecited as Abkhazians on their passports.  Beingidentified as an Abkhazian provided individuals withcertain advantages in the former U.S.S.R. and inAbkhazia itself.  The highest ranking officials ininstitutions in Abkhazia were Abkhazians.
       From the some 70,000 Abkhazians, only a fewhundred started aggravating the situation inAbkhazia.  Abkhazian leaders were Leninists andpressed for separation from Georgia. They soughtsupport from people who had been associated withthe former Communist Party of the Soviet Union andfrom the Russian armed forces.
     Russia's leaders, dismayed at Russia's loss ofstatus as a superpower, seek to have Russia be atleast a regional power.  They have never given uptheir claim of authority over former U.S.S.R.territory and want to restore their authority in theseareas.  They want to maintain their power andmilitary bases in the territory of the former U.S.S.R.
     One of the main targets of Russia's claims wasGeorgia.  The Russians provoked the SouthOssetians into fighting for separatism from Georgia. Russia also helped defeat Georgian forces in thefighting with the Abkhazian separatists; withGeorgia weakened, Russia was able to restore muchof its influence in Georgia.
     The civil war in Georgia was inspired, plotted,and provoked by forces from outside Georgia,particularly in Russia.  Russian civilian and militaryintelligence organizations perpetuated the civil war. The Russians denied involvement and spoke of an Abkhazian navy and army, but how could 70,000people acquire tanks and bombers.  Russian DefenseMinister Grachev went so far as to claim thatGeorgians had painted aircraft to look Russian andthen bombed the port city of Sukhumi themselves.Professor Gachechiladze  indicated that he thought that former Georgian leader Gamsakhurdia did notcommit suicide, as was announced, but was killed.
     Georgia, weakened by the fighting with theAbkhazians who were supported by Russians and byeconomic difficulties, was forced to join theCommonwealth of Independent States and to  grantofficial status to three Russian military bases inGeorgia.  Russian troops are now in Georgia legally.
     The Confederation of North Caucasian MountainPeoples is a relatively new movement established byChechens designed to unite different nationalities inthe area.  This movement has a well-organizedgoverning body, and its key uniting force is Islam. The leaders want to unite this part of Russia andthen move north.
       Their key problem is that they have no access tothe Black Sea, and it is for this reason that theywanted Abkhazia to be a part of their confederation. They made Sukhumi the capital of theirconfederation.  With ports on the Black Sea, theycould export oil and other resources and bring inarmaments, while being free of Russia's control. Their supporters fought on the separatists' side.
     Armenia has its own problems with the Nagorno-Karabakh province.  Armenia controls one quarter of Azerbaijan's territory and is watching  develop-ments in Abkhazia to see if an Abkhazian stateemerges that could be used as a precedent or model for Nagorno-Karabakh.  At the same time, Armenianofficials deny any similarities between Abkhazia andNagorno-Karabakh.
       Some Armenian volunteers formed units to fightagainst Georgians, and one battalion, known by thename of a Russian World War II general,Bagramian, continued to fight into 1994. 
     Turkey wants a buffer zone between Russia anditself.  Georgia, naturally, is seen as part of thatbuffer zone.  Turkey prefers to have stability in thatarea, with a peaceful solution and Georgia remainingwhole.  The Turks have their own problems with theKurds.  Turkey generally supports Georgia's position. 
Map of the States of the Former Soviet Union(100k)
**Results and Impacts from the War**
     Turkey did not achieve its goal of Georgia beinga stable buffer area between itself and Russia. Russia moved forces down into the area near theTurkish border.  The war sets a bad example for theKurds.
     Armenia should see the results of the war asbeing in Armenia's interest.  Armenia can use this asa  model  for  Nagorno-Karabakh,  letting  Russian troops surround Nagorno-Karabakh while theArmenian population in the province grows.
     Abkhazians achieved their goals completely; theywon the war.  Tragically, however, the population ofAbkhazia was decimated; some 10,000 of 70,000Abkhazians were killed, and many were youngmales.  Leaders in Abkhazia subsequently haveinvited people from the North Caucasus area andAbkhazians in the Middle East to come and becomecitizens in Abkhazia.
     The Confederation of North Caucasian MountainPeoples achieved access to the Black Sea,particularly through the port city of Sukhumi.  TheConfederation, however, will meet resistance fromRussia.
      Russia achieved its interests.  It punishedGeorgia, which had resisted joining the Common-wealth of Independent States.  The Abkhazianconflict was a tragedy, but it serves as an example toother former republics of the Soviet Union of whatcan happen when they try to remain separate fromRussia.  The conflict put Georgia on its knees anddestroyed its economy.  Georgia was forced to look toRussia as the only hope for restoring some stability.
     Georgia was a complete loser.  The conflict haddevastating results, and Georgia went into deepdepression and is still under great stress.  At least20,000 people were killed in Georgia, and the numberof ethnic Georgians killed in Abkhazia is unknown.Some 300,000 refugees from Abkhazia have had to bedistributed throughout Georgia with its small 4million person population.  Georgia used to have apopulation of 5 million people, but many have fled. Refugees now comprise about one-tenth of thepopulation of Georgia, and there are great problems,including not enough housing.  Not only wasGeorgia's economy destroyed, but Georgia lost one-twelfth of its territory.  The tourist industry, whichhas been very important to the economy, wasdestroyed.  There is a shortage of natural gas, asGeorgia has to buy it from Turkmenistan with hardcurrency.  Russia will likely put pressure on Georgia,saying Russia will pay for the gas but only undercertain circumstances.
     Georgian Government leader EduardShevardnadze is a controversial figure.  He wantedto do something for Georgia but overextended hiscapabilities.  Having been  foreign  minister of the U.S.S.R., he was respected in the world and hadinfluence and Western support.  It was tragic forboth Shevardnadze and Georgia that he neglectedthe Russian factor in the area.  Because he ignoreddevelopments in Russia, he got into a tragic war inAbkhazia.  He had said that the CIS was born deadand that Georgia would not join it.  Shevardnadze isin a dramatic situation now; he has lost theconfidence of the people.  The war started when hewas in office, and he, as commander-in-chief, lost it. Instead of fighting in trenches where troops cannotbe supported, he should have attacked at the outsetor attacked much later.  Some people sayShevardnadze is all that Georgia has that he is thelast institution.
**Future Plans**
     Abkhazians will likely continue to pursue a policyof genocide toward Georgians. 
     Russia will try to pressure Georgia so that it ispolitically, economically, socially, and militarilydependent on Russia.  It will try to keep Georgiapoor and dependent.
     Georgians will try to be good neighbors so as notto anger the Russians who, if angered, couldexacerbate ethnic conflict.
     North Caucasians will press for independence,but Russia will resist this because it does not wanta strong Muslim state there.  Russia may moveRussians into the North Caucasus.  (Note: As of mid-January 1995, recent events in Chechnya prove thatRussia's policy toward Georgia was a failure. Abkhazian victory on the one hand caused aprecedent that separatism could win, and, on theother hand, it created the image of the Checheninfluence in the area, as a leader not only for theConfederation but also as a separatist force whichcould oppose Russia.)
     Armenia is watching developments in Georgiaand Abkhazia with a view to using this as a modelfor securing Nagorno-Karabakh.  
     Turkey, which is friendly with Georgia, isobserving the situation and trying not to getinvolved.   
**Economic and Military Issues**
*Iran, Azerbaijan, and Oil Pipelines:**