## Proposed 8

- Hour Ozone State Implementation Plan Revisions

and Technical Revisions to the PM2.5 State Implementation Plan

Transportation Conformity Budgets

for the

South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins

Release Date: June 2 0, 2011

Hearing Date: July 21 , 2011



# Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency

### - 2

-

Introduction

On April 28, 2011

, the Air Resources Board (ARB or Board ) considered revisions to the South

Coast and San Joaquin Valley State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for PM2.5 that accounted

for reductions of emis sions that contribut es to PM2.5 levels

. The revisions were formally

adopted by the Board’s Executive Office r on May 18, 2011 when Executive Order S

- 11

- 010

was signed. The April 2011 PM2.5 SIP revisions accounted for recent regulatory actions and

recession ary impacts on emissions that occurred after the South Coast and

San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 SIPs were adopted in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Those

revisions accounted for the impact the recession has had on emissions and the benefits of

ARB’s in

- use diesel truck and off

- road equipment regulations. The revisions updated the

PM2.5 SIP’s reasonable f urther p rogress (RFP) calculations

, transportation co nformity

b udgets , and ARB ’s rulemaking calendar

.

ARB s taff is now proposing corresponding revisions to the 8

- hour ozone SIPs adopted by the

South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Districts (Districts) in 2007. T he same technic al

procedures used for the April 2011 PM2.5 SIP revisions were applied to estimate future

emissions in 8

- hour ozone SIP milestone years

. Appendix A identifies the specific SIP

revisions. Appendix B provides ARB staff's current estimate of remaining emissions after

accounting for the impacts of the regulations and the recession and contains documentation

for these estimates

. Appendix C includes a description of the methodology used to calculate

the proposed updated transportation conformity budgets for both the South Coast and San

Joaquin Valley Air Basins. Appendix D provides the updated ARB rulemaking calendar, as

adopted by ARB on Ma y 18, 2011. Finally, Appendix E contains ARB staff ’s ana lysis of

environmental i mpacts of the proposed SIP revisions.

Description of Proposed Revisions to the 8

- Hour Ozone SIP s

Appendix A contains the proposed SIP revisions and is intended for submittal to U.S. EPA.

The proposed 8

- hour o zone SIP revisions update the RFP calculations and the t ransportation

conformity b udgets. Staff is also proposing to update ARB’s rulemaking calendar for one

measure, a revision to the calendar for cleaner in

- use agricu ltural equipment. Appendix A

also contains additional information on ARB actions to identify advanced emission control

technologies in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley.

Proposed Revisions to the 8

- Hour Ozone SIP Reasonab le Further Progress

Calculat ion s

ARB staff is proposing revisions to reflect the current estimate of remaining emissions

in the RFP demonstrations for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. When A RB

adopted the 2007 8

- hour o zone SIPs for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley, bot h

regions demonstrated RFP in accordance with the Clean Air Act requirements. This

continues to be true based on ARB staff’s current estimate of remaining emissions in

both the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. In order to make this demonstration

avail able to U.S. EPA for inclusion in the 8

- hour ozone SIPs, ARB staff has recalculated

the RFP demonstrations and contingency measure accounting using the current

estimate of remaining emissions.

### - 3

-

Proposed Revisions to the 8

- Hour Ozone SIP Transportation Co nformity Budgets

ARB is proposing to update the transportation conformity budgets applicable to the

federal 8

- hour ozone standard for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins

that will ensure that on

- road emissions will be consistent with the att ainment

demonstration in future years. These updates account for the action taken by the

Board in December 2010 to amend the truck and bus regulations

, new data, and to

reflect the current rulemaking calendar.

ARB staff is also proposing to make minor technical revisions to the South Coast and

San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 SIP transportation conformity budgets adopted by the Board

in April of 2011.

Proposed Update to the 8

- Hour Ozone SIP Rulemaking Calendar for Agricultural

Equipment

When ARB adopted the recent revisions to the rulemaking calen dar for California’s

PM2.5 SIPs , ARB only adopted revisions as they related to the PM2.5 SIPs. The

updated rulemaking calendar now needs to be adopted for inclusion in the South Coast

and San Joaquin Valley 8

- hour ozone SIPs, with the following addition: ARB staff is

proposing to revise the rulemaking calendar for the c leaner i n

- use a gricultural

e quipment measure consistent with the updated calendar for the other remaining

ozone measures identified in the 2007 SIP

. This measure is included in the

San Joaquin Valley 8

- hour ozone SIP but not the PM2.5 SIP. The ARB adopted

2011 PM2.5 rulemaking calendar submitted to U.S. EPA is included in Appendix D.

A n incentive program is also being implemented to achieve ea rly reductions in ozone

precursors from agricultural equipment, primarily tractors . To date, about $70 million

has been allocated by the San Joaquin Valley Air District and federal agencies to

modernize off

- road agricultural equipment. B enefits from this incentive program will be

incorporated into the 8

- hour ozone SIP for the San Joaquin Valley as emission

reductions are achieved and accounting is completed

.

ARB staff proposes to br ing an agricultural equipment measure to the Board for

consideration in 2013. The final i mplementation schedule would be determined in the

rulemaking pr ocess as described in the 2007 SIP

. The specific revision to the

rulemaking calendar for agricultural eq uipment is included in Appendix A.

Actions to Identify and Implement Advanced Technologies to Reduce Ozone

- forming

Emissions

While ozone air quality continues to improve in both the S outh Coast and

San Joaquin Valley air basins

, full attainment in these regions will require additional

emission reductions. A dvanced techno logies are necessary in order to fully realize the

emission reductions needed to attain the federal o zone standard by the attainment year

of 2023

. Appendix A summarizes ARB staff’s proposal to augment the discussion

### - 4

-

contained in the South Coast and San Jo aquin Valley 8

- hour ozone SIPs regarding

actions ARB will take to identify and implement the advanced technology provisions in

accordance with the requirements of section 182 (e)(5) of the federal Clean Air Act

.

Complete List of Appendices

 Appendix A: Pr oposed State Implementation Plan Revision

o A

- 1: Proposed Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone SIP Reasonable Further Progress

Calculations

o A

- 2: Proposed Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation

Conformity Budgets

o A

- 3: Proposed Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone SIP Rulemaking Calendar for

Agricultural Equipment

o A

- 4: Actions for Identifying and Implementing Advanced Technology Measures

 Appendix B: Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and

Methodology

 Appendix C : Description of Technic al Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP

Transportation Conformity Budgets

 Appendix D: Adopted PM2.5 Rulemaking Calendar

 App endix E : Analysis of Environmental Impacts

## Appendix A

State Implementation Plan Revision

o A

- 1: Proposed Revisions to t he 8

- hour Ozone SIP Reasonable Further Progress

Calculations

o A

- 2: Proposed Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation

Conformity Budgets

o A

- 3: Proposed Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone SIP Rulemaking Calendar for

Agricultural Equipment

o A

- 4: Ac tions for Identifying and Implementing Advanced Technology Measures

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 2 June 20, 2011 A

- 1

Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone SIP

Reasonable Further Progress Calculations

South Coast

(Summer Season, tons per day )

2002 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Baseline ROG 880.5 632. 0 579.9 535.2 519.8 513.9 513.4

CA MVCP/RVP Adjustment 0.0 56.1 73.0 86.6 93.7 98.3 101.6

RACT Corrections 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0.0 0 .0

Adjusted 2002 Baseline ROG in milestone year 880.5 824.5 807.6 793.9 786.8 782.3 778.9

RFP commitment for ROG reducti ons from new

measures 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0.0 0 .0

Future Year ROG with existing and proposed

measures 632.0 579.9 535.2 519.8 513.9 513.4

Required % change since previous milestone

year (ROG or NOx) compared to 2002 18% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

Required % cha nge since 2002 (ROG or NOx) 18% 27% 36% 45% 54% 63%

Target ROG levels 676.1 599.8 533.4 479.0 431.7 389.8

Apparent shortfall in ROG

- 44.1

- 19.9 1.7 40.8 82.2 123.6

Apparent shortfall in ROG, %

- 5.3%

- 2.5% 0.2% 5.2% 10.5% 15.9%

ROG shortfall pr eviously provided by NOx

substitution, % 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 5.2% 10.5%

Actual ROG shortfall, %

- 5.3%

- 2.5% 0.2% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4%

Baseline NOx 1024.1 728.3 591.2 532.1 478.8 428.2 378.4

CA MVCP Adjustment 0.0 64.7 80.6 93.0 98.3 102.4 1 05.9

Adjusted 2002 Baseline NOx in milestone year 1024.1 959.4 943.4 931.1 925.8 921.7 918.2

RFP commitment for NOx reductions from new

measures 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0.0 0 .0

Change in NOx since 2002 231.1 352.3 398.9 447.0 493.5 539.7

Change in NOx si nce 2002, % 24.1% 37.3% 42.8% 48.3% 53.5% 58.8%

NOx reductions since 2002 already used for

RFP substitution and contingency through last

milestone year, % 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 8.2% 13.5%

NOx reductions since 2002 available for RFP

substitution and con tingency in this milestone

year, % 24.1% 34.3% 39.8% 45.1% 45.4% 45.3%

Change in NOx since 2002 used for ROG

substitution in this milestone year, % 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4%

Change in NOx since 2002 available for

contingency in this milestone yea r, % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Change in NOx since 2002 surplus after

meeting substitution and contingency needs in

this milestone year, % 21.1% 34.3% 39.6% 40.1% 40.0% 39.9%

RFP Met? YES YES YES YES YES YES

Contingency Met? YES YES YES YES YES YES

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 3 June 20, 2011 A

- 1

Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone SIP

Reasonable Further Progress Calculations

San Joaquin Valley

(Summer Season, tons per day )

2002 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Baseline ROG 457.5 407.6 354.1 331.0 328.9 330.5 339.0

CA MVCP/RVP Adjustmen t 0.0 12.4 17.8 22.4 25.4 26.4 26.5

RACT Corrections 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0.0 0 .0

Adjusted 2002 Baseline ROG in milestone year 457.5 445.1 439.7 435.0 432.0 431.0 431.0

RFP commitment for ROG reductions from new

measures 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0.0 0 .0

Futu re Year ROG with existing and proposed

measures 407.6 354.1 331.0 328.9 330.5 339.0

Required % change since previous milestone

year (ROG or NOx) compared to 2002 18% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

Required % change since 2002 (ROG or NOx) 18% 27% 36% 45% 54% 63%

Ta rget ROG levels 365.0 327.2 293.5 264.4 239.7 218.1

Apparent shortfall in ROG 42.6 26.9 37.5 64.5 90.9 121.0

Apparent shortfall in ROG, % 9.6% 6.1% 8.6% 14.9% 21.1% 28.1%

ROG shortfall previously provided by NOx

substitution, % 0% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 14. 9% 21.1%

Actual ROG shortfall, % 9.6%

- 3.4%

- 0.9% 5.4% 6.1% 7.0%

Baseline NOx 565.2 425.4 359.0 307.4 258.8 224.9 194.6

CA MVCP Adjustment 0.0 16.8 21.2 24.8 26.9 27.8 28.2

Adjusted 2002 Baseline NOx in milestone year 565.2 548.5 544.1 540.4 538.4 537.4 537.1

RFP commitment for NOx reductions from new

measures 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0.0 0 .0

Change in NOx since 2002 123.1 185.1 233.0 279.5 312.5 342.5

Change in NOx since 2002, % 22.4% 34.0% 43.1% 51.9% 58.1% 63.8%

NOx reductions since 2002 already used for

RFP substitution and contingency through last

milestone year, % 0.0% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 17.9% 24.1%

NOx reductions since 2002 available for RFP

substitution and contingency in this milestone

year, % 22.4% 21.4% 30.6% 39.4% 40.2% 39.7%

C hange in NOx since 2002 used for ROG

substitution in this milestone year, % 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 6.1% 7.0%

Change in NOx since 2002 available for

contingency in this milestone year, % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Change in NOx since 2002 surplus after

meeting substitution and contingency needs in

this milestone year, % 9.9% 21.4% 30.6% 34.0% 34.1% 32.7%

RFP Met? YES YES YES YES YES YES

Contingency Met? YES YES YES YES YES YES

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 4 June 20, 2011 A

- 2

Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP

Transportation Confor mity Budgets

South Coast

8

- hour Ozone SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets *

(Summer Season, tons per day )

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx

South Coast Air Basin 172 328 136 277 119 224 108 185 99 140

*Budgets are ro unded up to the nearest ton.

In addition, at the time the 2007 SIP was adopted, a 2008 budget year was a necessary MPO analysis year for

federal transportation conformity purposes. Since 2008 has passed, it is no longer applicable as a conformity

analysi s year, and was therefore not included in these budgets.



### San Joaquin Valley

8

- hour Ozone SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets **

(Summer Season, tons per day )

County

Subarea 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx

Fresno 14. 3 36.2 10.7 30.0 9.3 22.6 8.3 17.7 8.0 13.5

Kern (SJV) 12.7 50.3 9.7 42.7 8.7 31.7 8.2 25.1 7.9 18.6

Kings 2.8 10.7 2.1 8.9 1.8 6.7 1.7 5.3 1.6 4.0

Madera 3.4 9.3 2.5 7.7 2.2 5.8 2.0 4.7 1.9 3.6

Merced 5.1 19.9 3.7 16.7 3.2 12.4 2.9 9.9 2.8 7.4

San Jo aquin 11.1 24.6 8.4 20.5 7.2 15.6 6.4 12.4 6.3 10.0

Stanislaus 8.5 16.9 6.4 13.9 5.6 10.6 5.0 8.4 4.7 6.4

Tulare 8.8 16.0 6.7 13.2 5.8 10.1 5.3 8.1 4.9 6.2

** Budgets are rounded up to the nearest tenth ton (0.1).

In addition, at the time the 2007 SIP was adopted, a 2008 budget year was a necessary MPO analysis year for

federal transportation conformity purposes. Since 2008 has passed, it is no longer applicable as a conformity

analysis year, and was therefore not included in these budgets.

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 5 June 20, 2011 South Coa st

PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets *

(Annual Average, tons per day )

2012 2014

ROG NOx PM2.5 ROG NOx PM2.5

South Coast Air

Basin 154 326 37 132 290 35

*Budgets are rounded up to the nearest ton.

Per Section 93.124 of the conformity regula tions, for transportation conformity analyses using

these budgets in analysis years beyond 2014, a trading mechanism is established to allow future

decreases in NOx emissions from on

- road mobile sources to offset any on

- road increases in

PM2.5, using a NOx :PM2.5 ratio of 10:1. This trading mechanism will only be used, if needed, for

conformity analyses for years after 2014. To ensure that the trading mechanism does not impact

the ability to meet the NOx budget, the NOx emission reductions available to suppl ement the

PM2.5 budget shall only be those remaining after the 2014 NOx budget has been met. Clear

documentation of the calculations used in the trading should be included in the conformity

analysis.

In addition, at the time the 2007 SIP was adopted, a 2009 budget year was a necessary MPO

analysis year for federal transportation conformity purposes. Since 2009 has passed, it is no

longer applicable as a conformity analysis year, and was therefore not included in these budgets.

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 6 June 20, 2011 San Joaquin Valley

PM 2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets **

(Annual Average, tons per day )

County

Subarea 2012 2014

PM2.5 NOx PM2.5 NOx

Fresno 1.5 35.7 1.1 31.4

Kern (SJV) 1.9 48.9 1.2 43.8

Kings 0.4 10.5 0.3 9.3

Madera 0.4 9.2 0.3 8.1

Merced 0.8 19.7 0.6 17.4

San Jo aquin 1.1 24.5 0.9 21.6

Stanislaus 0.7 16.7 0.6 14.6

Tulare 0.7 15.7 0.5 13.8

** Budgets are rounded up to the nearest tenth ton (0.1).

Per Section 93.124 of the conformity regulations, for transportation conformity analyses using

these budgets in anal ysis years beyond 2014, a trading mechanism is established to allow future

decreases in NOx emissions from on

- road mobile sources to offset any on

- road increases in

PM2.5, using a NOx:PM2.5 ratio of 9:1. This trading mechanism will only be used, if needed , for

conf ormity analyses for years after 2014. To ensure that the trading mechanism does not impact

the ability to meet the NOx budget, the NOx emission reductions av ailable to supplement the

PM2.5 budget shall only be those remaining after the 2014 NOx budget has been met. Clear

documentation of the calculations used in the trading should be included in the conformity

analysis.

In addition, at the time the 2007 SIP was adopted, a 2009 budget year was a necessary MPO

analysis year for federal transporta tion conformity purposes. Since 2009 has passed, it is no

longer applicable as a conformity analysis year, and was therefore not included in these budgets.

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 7 June 20, 2011 A

- 3

Revisions to the 8

- hour Ozone SIP

Rulemaking Calendar for Agricultural Equipment

ARB adopted revisions to the rulemaking calendar for California’s PM 2.5 SIPs on

May 18, 2011. The updated rulemaking calendar is also intended for inclusion in the South

Coast and San Joaquin Valley 8

- hour ozone SIPs, with the following addition: the ru lemaking

calendar for the c leaner i n

- use a gricultural e quipment measure , has an action date of 2013

consistent with the updated calendar for the remaining ozone measures identified in the

2007 SIP

. This measure is included in the San Joaquin Valley 8

- hour ozone SIP but not the

PM2.5 SIP. A copy of the PM2.5 SIP Rulemaking Calendar is included in Appendix D to this

report for reference.

A n incentive program is also being implemented to achieve early reductions in ozone

precursors from agricultural equipme nt, primarily tractors . To date, about $70 million has

been allocated by the San Joaquin Valley Air District and federal agencies to modernize off

road agricultural equipment. B enefits from this incentive program will be incorporated into the

8

- hour ozon e SIP for the San Joaquin Valley as emission reductions are achieved and

accounting is completed.

Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone SIP Rulemaking Calendar

for Agricultural Tractors

Agency Actions Implementation

Off

- Road Equipment

Cleaner In

- use Agric ultural Equipment 1 ARB 2013 See note

1 The final implementation schedule would be determined in the rulemaking process as described in the currently

adopted ozone SIP

. This measure is included in the San Joaquin Valley 8

- hour oz one SIP and not the PM2.5

SIP.

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 8 June 20, 2011 A

- 4

Actions for Identifying and Implementing Advanced Technology Measures

Commitment to Reduce Emissions via Long

- Term Strategy

Consistent with section 182(e)(5) of the federal Clean Air Act, this SIP includes long

- term

commitments to achieve the last increment of emission reductions necessary to fully meet

attainment goals in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. As the State agency charged

with ensuring California’s SIP compliance, the ARB is ultimately responsible for ensuring th at

measures a re identified no later than 2020 (three years prior to the attainment year) and the

emission reductions achieved by 2023.

No later than 2020, ARB and the two air districts will prepare a revision to the 8

- hour o zone

SIP that : (1) reflects any modification s to the 2023 emission reduction target based on

updated science, and (2) identifies any additional strategies, including the implementing

agencies, needed to achieve the necessary emissions reductions by 2023. In accordance

with section 182(e)(5)(B) of t he Clean Air Act, ARB will submit enforceable commitments to

develop and adopt contingency measures if the advanced technology measures do not

achieve planned reductions

.

To implement the Long

- term Strategy, ARB:

a) c ommits to shar e the results of its eff orts to identify emerging emission reduction

opportunities, promising technologies, and the progress made in developing long

- term

emission reduction measures with the public through periodic briefings to the Board,

workshops, conferences, symposia, website postings , and other means;

b) commits to work to secure resources in the future for continuing research and

development of new technologies ; and

c) commits to develop schedules for moving from control technology research to

implementation.

While the Cle an Air Act establishes timelines well into the future, ARB recognizes the

challenges presented are near enough that action is needed in order to bridge the attainment

gap in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. While not exhaustive, t he following secti on

describe s on

- going activities to identify and deploy the technologie s needed to attain the

ozone standard in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley and to fulfill ARB’s commitment

under section 182(e)(5) of the Clean Air Act

.

Clean Air Technology Init iative

U.S. EPA, along with ARB, the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Districts and the

California Environmental Protection Agency, signed a memorandum of agreement (MOA) to

commit to developing and testing new technologies to accelerate progress in meeting current

and future national air quality standards. The goal of the MOA is to improve air quality by

aligning agency research resources, where possible and appropriate, to evaluate innovative

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 9 June 20, 2011 technologies that have the potential to reduce emission s of pollutants and pollutant

precursors, and to develop and assess new monitoring equipment that could improve the

measurement of emissions from mobile and stationary sources of pollution.

As part of this agreement, the agencies intend to coordinate re search efforts with other public

and private stakeholders, including other federal departments and agencies and other S tate

and local entities, in order to utilize the resources and capacities of a wide sector of

government and the business community in pr ojects to develop, demonstrate

, and assess

new technologies that can help achieve clean air goals.

A key element of the MOA was the creation of the Cl ean Air Technology Initiative, through

which the pa rtner agencies identify regionally important emissio n sources contributing to the

region’s attainment challenges. Both the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air D istrict s

select ed focus area s that are impacted by a mixture of mobile and stationary sources,

especially sources representing maj or contributor s to the SIP inventories and key air toxic

exposures in the community. The partner agencies then coordinate actions to align local,

State, and federal resources to accelerate the identification and implementation of advanced

clean technologies

. The techn ologies demonstrated are intended to achieve significant

reductions for SIP purposes as well as reduce local air toxics exposure. Below is a brief

description of the focus areas for the two regions.

South Coast Air Basin Focus Area

The City of San Bern ardino has a large intermodal railyard with the highest health risk

of all railyards in Southern California. This city is also im pacted by goods movement

activi ties that originate at the ports and move east via trucks and trains through

San Bernardi no and out of the S tate, as well as triggering new warehouse and

distribution projects in inland areas. In addition, there are more than 1,000 stationary

sources in the area holding South Coast Air District permits, such as autobody and

automotive repair shops; transportation faciliti es; concrete and ag gregate operations;

military installations; printing a nd coating operations; and manu facturing facilities.

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin Focus Area

The southern San Joaquin Valley focus area houses 1.2 million r esidents, and

frequently exceeds health

- based air standards when regional pollutants are trapped by

surrounding mountains and atmospheric inversion layers. The focus area straddles

Kern and Tulare counties, with mobile source emissions from the goods move ment

corridor of Highway 99 and Interstate 5, and stationary source emissions from a variety

of energy production facilities, farms, and agricultural processing operations. The

focus a rea includes the city of Bakers field with the Valley’s highest winterti me

particulate matter concentrations, and the city of Arvin, with some of the Valle y’s

highest 8

- hour ozone concen trations in the summer.

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 10 June 20, 2011 Co

- Benefits of Climate Change Programs

California is committed to reducing the State’s impacts on global climate ch ange. California's

major initiatives for reducing climate change or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are outlined

in Assembly Bill 32

– the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32)

. These efforts aim at

reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020

– a reduction of approximately 30 percent

. Reducing emissions from combustion sources is at the core of California’s program to meet

the federal ozone standard and is also central to the AB 32 Scoping Plan for meeting the

2020 greenhouse gas emissions target. California’s climate and criteria pollutant programs

are complementary, and the AB 32 regulations ARB is adopting will provide emission

reductions that will be incorporated into future air quality plans for ozone and fine particles.

Air Quality Improvem ent Program (AQIP)

The California Alternative and Renewable Fuel, Vehicle Technology, Clean Air, and Carbon

Reduction Act of 2007 (Assembly Bill (AB) 118, Statutes of 2007, Chapter 750) creates the

Air Qua lity Improvement Program (AQIP). This incentive pr ogram is administered by ARB to

fund clean vehicle and equipment projects, research on biofuels production and the air quality

impacts of alternative fuels, and workforce training. The AQIP expands California’s portfolio

of air quality incentives, providi ng the opportunity to fund projects that do not fit within the

statutory framework of existing incentive programs such as the Carl Moyer Air Quality

Standards Attainment Program (Carl Moyer Program), Goods Movement Emissio n Reduction

Program, and Lower

- Emi ssion School Bus Program.

AQIP is ARB’s only incentive program structured to allow for investments in technology

advancing projects which also provide immediate emission reductions, and ARB is using

AQIP funds for this purpose. AQIP investments support t he deployment of hybrid

- electric

vehicles, zero

- emission vehicles (ZEV), and other advanced technologies critical to meeting

California’s post

- 2020 SIP and climate change emission reduction goals. California must start

placing these zero

- and near

- zero em ission vehicles on its roadways today to achieve large

scale emission reductions in future decades because of the time it takes for significant fleet

turnover. The cornerstone of the AQIP for FY 2009

- 10 is the $20.4 million Hybrid Truck and

Bus Voucher In centive Project (HVIP), aimed at accelerating California deployment of new

hybrid m edium

- and heavy

- duty vehicles. California’s large funding commitment for hybrid

truck technology not only provides emission benefits today, but is likely to enable heavy

- d uty

hybrids to become commonplace in the near future, much the way hybrid cars have become

commonplace in the light

- duty sector. Hybrid technology for trucks is near a tipping point, and

the State’s investment over several years should help it become self

- sustaining through

production economies of scale.

AQIP is also funding vehicle purchaser incentives for other cleaner technologies

– ZEV’s and

plug

- in hybrid cars, electric lawnmowers

, and demonstration projects for cleaner marine and

locomotive engines. These projects are on track as well. In nearly all cases, demand for

funding is meeting or exceeding ARB’s expectations.

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 11 June 20, 2011 Annual Research Program

Annually, ARB adopts a research plan intended to provide timely scientific and technical

information that will help the Board and local air pollution control districts to most effectively

implement air pollution control programs in California. Specifically, this plan supports ARB’s

mission to protect public health based on a strong scientific understanding of health effects

and exposures; continue developing and implementing strategies to reduce GHG emissions

and energy consumption; develop effective strategies to safeguard health and welfare against

adverse impacts of ambient air pollution; and support develo pment of technologies and non

technological strategies that address multiple priorities related to air quality. The 2010/2011

research program identified 25 projects to receive more than $6.5 million dollars in research

funding. Cumulatively, California has granted nearly $24 million dollars in research funds

since the 2007 8

- h our o zone SIPs were adopted.

South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air District Efforts

South Coast

The South Coast Air District has been a leader in identifying and implementing

s trategies to improve air quality through the use of innovative strategies and advanced

technologies. In order to meet the region’s 2023 attainment goal, emissions of nitrogen

oxides (NOx) will need to decline by an additional two

- thirds by 2023. Achievin g this

goal will require a fundamental shift in business

- as

- usual to a clean

- energy future. The

South Coast Air District has identified a clean energy vision of the future that would

guide the way as the region begins to recover from the economic recessio n that has

affected the entire nation.

This vision would have local, S tate and federal government and business leaders focus

on utilizing the cleanest, greenest technologies in their planned growth. In order to fully

realize the vision, the region woul d need to change how people and freight are moved

– using electrification and hybridization technologies to convert existing infrastru cture

to near

- zero emissions. Land

- use decisions would put people closer to their

destinations and would empower people t o choose energy efficient mass transit.

Energy generation and use would be cleaner. Solar and fuel cell distributed generation

would play a significant role in meeting the region’s energy needs. Old inefficient

power plants would be modernized with more efficient equipment. Building energy use

would be improved and energy consumers would be given the tools needed to use

energy more wisely.

San Joaquin Valley

The San Joaquin Valley Air District is also pursuing innovative strategies to reduce

ozone

- fo rming emissions, through the local “Fast Track” strategy. The Fast Track

strategy focuses on using innovative strategies to reduce emissions from sources that

cannot be regulated or have already been well controlled at the local level. Key long

-

### Appendix A

- State Implementa tion Plan Revision

Appendix A

- 12 June 20, 2011 term elem ents of the Fast Track strategy include opportunities to reduce emissions

from heavy

- duty trucks by shifting goods movement to lower

- emission alternatives.

The San Joaquin Valley Air District has explored and advocated for the use of short

sea shipping op portunities to shift goods movement from trucks to waterways. In 2010,

the U.S. Department of Transportation awarded the Ports of Stockton, West

Sacramento, and Oakland with a $30 million grant to move goods between Oakland

and the two inland ports over t he San Joaquin

- Sacramento Delta.

The San Joaquin Valley Air District also recognizes the need for transformational

changes in technology, and has adopted a Technology Advancement Program to

support technological advancements through partnerships with univ ersities, State

agencies, and the federal government. The San Joaquin Valley Air District also

established a Regional Energy Efficiency Strategy to support technology development

and deployment in the Valley. The Regional Energy Efficiency Program lays o ut goals

and measures that will guide the District’s actions to reduce emissions caused by

electricity and natural gas consumption in residential, industrial, and institutional

organizations in the Valley.

Conclusion

Achieving the emission reductions nee ded to fully attain the federal 8

- hour ozone standard in

the South Coast and the San Joaquin Valley will require significant penetration of the cleanest

technologies. ARB, the South Coast Air District and the San Joaquin Valley Air District have a

long hi story of pursuing innovative strategies to bring low and ultra

- low emission technologies

into use. ARB staff will periodically update the Board on these efforts and will revise the SIP

as appropriate when advanced technologies become viable emission contr ol strategies.

Additionally, ARB will revise the SIP if needed, as California addresses future air quality

standards.

## Appendix B

Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions,

Documentation and Methodology

### Appendix B

- Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and Methodology

Appendix B

- 2 June 20, 2011 Appendix B includes additional documentat ion and data supporting this proposed S IP

Revision. It includes additional detail regarding the e missions accounting methodology and

information on how ARB staff accounted for the impacts of the recession . This methodology

is consistent with the methodol ogy described in Appendix A and Appendix E of the ARB staff

report “Progress Report on Implementation of PM2.5 State Implementation Plans (SIP) for the

South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins and Proposed SIP Revisions ” which was

r eleased to the publ ic on March 29 , 2011.

Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions

South Coast Air Basin

Remaining NOx Emissions

(Summer Season, tpd)



### Category 2002 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Stationary & Areawide 89 82 73 71 68 68 68

On

- road Mobile 652 422 327 276 2 24 185 140

Off

- road Mobile 283 225 191 185 187 176 170

Total Inventory 1024 728 591 532 479 428 378

South Coast Air Basin

Remaining ROG Emissions

(Summer Season, tpd)



### Category 2002 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Stationary & Areawide 318 247 252 254 260 267 273

On

- road Mobile 361 211 171 135 119 107 98

Off

- road Mobile 202 174 156 146 141 140 142

Total Inventory 881 632 580 535 520 514 513

### Appendix B

- Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and Methodology

Appendix B

- 3 June 20, 2011

Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions

San Joaquin Valley

Remaining NOx Emissions

(Summer Sea son, tpd)



### Category 2002 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Stationary & Areawide 101 76 68 57 55 53 53

On

- road Mobile 312 229 183 153 115 91 69

Off

- road Mobile 152 120 108 98 89 80 73

Total Inventory 565 425 359 307 259 225 195

San Joaquin Valley

Remai ning ROG Emissions

(Summer Season, tpd)



### Category 2002 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Stationary & Areawide 276 263 226 223 229 235 244

On

- road Mobile 110 78 66 50 43 39 37

Off

- road Mobile 71 67 62 59 57 57 57

Total Inventory 457 408 354 331 329 331 33 9



### SIP Accounting

The Clean Air Act requires the use of air quality modeling to determine the “carrying capacity”

or “SIP emissions target”; that is, the maximum allowable emission levels that the

nonattainment area can accommodate while attaining the s tandard.

While the adopted SIP contains a list of category

- specific measures with regulatory timelines

and expected reductions, ARB’s enforceable com mitment is to meet the emission levels

needed for attainment with sufficient aggregate emission reductions , including any from actual

changes in emissions.

To track progress toward the emissions target, this report uses a simple emissions accounting

approach that explicitly show s the impact of the recession and the benefit of the regulations

ARB and the local air districts have approved since the ozone SIPs were adopted. The

approach looks like :

### Appendix B

- Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and Methodology

Appendix B

- 4 June 20, 2011 (Emissions Inventory)

– (Emission Reductions Achieved) = (Remaining Emissions)

Where:

Emissions Inventory = Amount of o zone precursor emissions

in the SIP base line

Emission Reductions

Achieved = Amount of emissions that have been

reduce d either through adopted

regulations or actual emission

decreases due to the recession

Remaining Emissions = The ozone precursor emissions level

that is forecast to be

remaining in the attainment year with

the impacts of both regulations and the

recession.

This approach keeps the focus on meeting the ultimate goal of the emission s target derive d

from air quality modeling. This approach also has the advantage of e xplicitly showing the

impacts of both the regulatory actions and the recession.

Assessing the Impacts of the Recession on Good s Movement Related Emissions

This section documents the methodologies used to account for the impacts of the economic

recession on the emission inventories for trucks, in

- use off

- road equipment, ocean

- going

vessels, and cargo handling equipment. Links to more detailed information are provided.

General Methodology

The economic recession officially started in December of 2007 an d ended in June 2009. It

was the most severe since the Great Depression and had a substantial impact on California

industries. The emission inventories for trucks, in

- use off

- road equipment, ocean

- going

vessels, and cargo handling equipment have all been adjusted to reflect the recession’s

impact

.

To adequately understand the impact of reduced activity on future e missions, staff developed

both fast and slow recovery scenario s

.

The fast recovery scenario assumes that total activity would return to proj ected historically

average levels in 2017 and then grow at the historical average rate after that. This scenario is

based on the Congressional Budget Office forecast which indicated that real gross domestic

product at a nationwide level will converge with potential gross domestic product trends no

later than 2015. Coupling this forecast with the assumption that California’s recovery will lag

the nation ’s by several years yielded the 2017 recovery date assumed for the fast recovery

scenario.

### Appendix B

- Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and Methodology

Appendix B

- 5 June 20, 2011 In the slow recovery scenario, staff assumed that activity would be permanently depressed

relative to historical levels, but continue to grow at the average historical growth rate

beginning in 2011.

While the fast and slow scenarios pr ovide reasonable bound s of poss ible recoveries, for

rulemaking purposes and for this SIP update, a single forecast is needed. For that forecast

, staff assumed an average recovery midway between the fast and slow recoveries. The chart

below illustrates the two bounding scenarios and th e assumed average used in this report.

This is the same approach developed to provide economic relief through last year’s regulatory

amendments to the diesel trucks, buses, and off

- road equipment rules.

In

- Use On

- Road Trucks & Buses

Staff updated th e inventory for diesel trucks and buses to support ARB consideration of

regulatory amendments to provide economic relief last December 2010. The update wa s

comprehensive and included r evised population estimates , new regional allocation factors,

lifetime odometer assumptions, revised growth rates, forecasted vehicle age distributions to

reflect the impact of the economic recession, and updated out

- of

- state vehicle activity. These

changes ar e described in detail at:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2010/truckbus10/truckbus10.htm

This report required emission estimates for years and pollutants (ROG) that were not needed

### Appendix B

- Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and Methodology

Appendix B

- 6 June 20, 2011 for the 2010 rulemaking staff report . Staff used the same meth odologies and principles used

for the December 2010 regulatory inventory to develop estimates for the other years and

pollutants in this report.

In

- Use Off

- Road Equipment

Just as for trucks and buses, staff completed a comprehensive revision to the inve ntory for

off

- road equipment to support ARB consideration in December 2010 of regulatory

amendments to provide economic relief. Updates were made to the population of equipment,

annual activity, load

, and future equipment sales. These changes are describ ed in detail at :

http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2010/offroadlsi10/offroadlsi10.htm

This report required emission estimates for years and pollutants (ROG) that were not needed

for the 2010 rulemaking staff report . Staff used the same methodologies and principles used

for the December 2010 regulatory inventory to develop estimates for the other years and

pollutants in this report.

Ocean

- Going Vessels (OGV)

The OGV inventory i n the ozone SIP included vessel

- specific data, an improved vessel traffic

network, vessel

- specific hoteling and anchorage times, and improved vessel speeds. Staff

has refined that inventory since then to support rulemaking in 2008 on the sulfur content in

fuel. Staff has further updated that 2008 inventory in anticipation of amendments to the same

fuel rule later this year. That information is used in this report. In general, the updates

include improved algorithms for vessel speed reduction (VSR), auxi liary engine power, and

estimating low load adjustment factors. Recession impacts are based on container

throughput statistics for the Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland. OGV activity

was down about 25% for the combined P orts of Los Angeles and Long Beach and about 15%

for the Port of Oakland between 2006 and 2009. More information is available at :

http://www.arb.ca.gov/ports/marinevess/ogv.htm

Cargo Handling Equipment (CHE)

An u pdate to the cargo handling equipment (CHE) inventory is currently underway using new

information about the population, equipment usage, impacts of the recession and fleet

turnover. The new model is still under development and not available for use in thi s report;

therefore, staff scaled the existing ozone SIP CHE emissions inventory to account for the new

data.

The inventory used for the ozone SIP was based on population and activity values from a

2001 to 2004 survey. As part of the adopted regulation, equipment owners were required to

report the population of their equipment to ARB. Additionally, between 2005 and 2009 the

ports and rail yards ha ve conducted their own emission inventories. This new information

### Appendix B

- Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and Methodology

Appendix B

- 7 June 20, 2011 indicates that the total S tate population is slightly higher than originally assumed. These

same data sources include updates to activity and load factor. However, changes in activity

and load factors offset these increases in the population.

To account for these changes, staff compared baselin e 2006 emissions from the original

inventory to the draft updated inventory baseline. As discussed in a recent February 2011

workshop, emissions for NOx are approximately 27 percent lower. For this report

, staff

assumed 2006 emissions were 27 percent low er than in the SIP. To forecast emissions

forward from 2006, staff compared the original growth assumptions for CHE to the growth in

port truck activity in the 2010 Truck and Bus Rule inventory model. Assuming that the CHE

activity relates chiefly to the movement of shipping containers, staff reduced growth by

approximately 20 percent . M ore information is available at:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/ports/cargo/cargo.htm

Commercial Harbor Craft

In 20 07

, ARB adopted a commercial harbor craft regulation and adopted amendments to the

original rule in 2010. Updates were made to the population of equipment, annual activity, and

regional allocation. These cha nges are described in detail at:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/ports/marinevess/harborcraft/hcdocuments.htm#regulatory

Emission Inventory Improvements for the San Joaquin Valley

Nature of Emissions Update

The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District (Valley Air District) initially adopted the

2007 8

- hour ozone SIP in April 2007. At that time, the SIP reflected the best available

emissions inventory estimates, technical calculations, and air qualit y modeling used to meet

federal air quality planning requirements.

Since the San Joaquin Valley 2007 8

- hour ozone SIP was adopted, both ARB and the Valley

Air District have continued to evaluate and update emission inventory categories under their

respe ctive authority. As described earlier in this Appendix, ARB has identified emissions

inventory improvements through the recent rulemaking process for trucks, in

- use off

- road

equipment, ocean

- going vessels, and cargo handling equipment. These ARB emission

inventory improvements were submitted to U.S. EPA on May 18, 2011 as an update to the

PM2.5 SIPs for the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast. T he Valley Air District also identified

emissions inventory and forecasting method improvements subsequent to the adoption of the

2007 8

- hour ozone SIP that were incorporated into the San Joaquin Valley 2008 PM2.5 SIP.

ARB staff briefed the Board on the improvements in November 2007, when staff presented

the Board with the report entitled “ ARB Staff Report to the Ai r Resources Board: Accelerating

San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Progress.”

### Appendix B

- Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and Methodology

Appendix B

- 8 June 20, 2011 The San Joaquin Valley Air District improvements included using the most recent

transportation activity data provided by Valley Metropolitan Planning Organizations and

updates to s everal categories subject to r ecent District rulemaking (including agricultural

burning and residential wood combustion) . Revisions were also made to an emissions

inventory methodology from the early 1990’s for a category identified as “unspecified” natur al

gas sources. This emissions inventory category labeled was “unspecified” because it was

designed to estimate small emission sources potentially not identified in other emissions

categories. A review of the methodology used to estimate and forecast thi s emission category

showed that emissions were incorrectly calculated in the base year and a growth surrogate

was applied which further increase d the future year forecast. In the 2008 PM2.5 SIP, the San

Joaquin Valley District revised this methodology to correct the inventory error. The 2008

methodology is also being used in this ozone SIP update.

In aggregate, the emission estimates based on ARB and San Joaquin Valley Air District

improvements show a 12 percent reduction in baseline NOx emissions for 2002 . The change

in 2023 is relatively greater primarily because the “unspecified” natural gas emissions

estimate was greater in 2023 than in 2002. The revised emission estimates are shown in

Table B

- 1.

Re lationship to SIP Emission s Target

The S IP attainment demonstration shows how the 2023 emissions target will be met through

a combination of adopted measures, new SIP measures, and 182(e)(5) emission reductions.

The SIP emissions target represents the maximum allowable emissions level that the

nonattainment area can accommodate while attaining the standard. The attainment

demonstration in the San Joaquin Valley 8

- hour ozone SIP was based on air quality modeling

which used procedures set by U.S. EPA. To assess whether the emission s inventory

imp rovements would affect the 2007 attainment demonstration, a qualitative review of the SIP

modeling results was conducted. This review relied on the previous modeling results because

in the near term it is not feasible to conduct new SIP modeling. Develop ing new SIP modeling

and revisiting the adopted attainment demonstration would be a multi

- year process

. However, as part of the planning effort to address the expected revision to the federal 8

- hour

ozone standard, ARB will include 2023 attainment modeling for the current standard along

with the attainment demonstration for the revised standard. If new modeling for 2023 shows

that the emissions target has changed to require additional reductions

, ARB will submit a

revised commitment to p rovide the reductions needed to meet the emission target.

Review of SIP Modeling Results

In accordance with U.S. EPA procedures, a ir quality models are used to predict the relative

response to reductions in ozone

- forming emissions for each site i n the region . Two model

runs are conducted. The first model run is for the reference year (in this case 2002) using a

corresponding estimate of ozone

- forming emissions in that year. The second model run is for

a future year (in this case 2023) using for ecast ed emissions, including adopted controls, but

no new SIP measures. This provides modeled ozone concentrations for 2002 and 2023. The

### Appendix B

- Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and Methodology

Appendix B

- 9 June 20, 2011 ratio of the se two concentrations is termed a relative re duction factor (RRF)

. The RRF

reflects the model ed d ecreas e in ozone levels between 2002 and 2023. The RRF is then

applied to an observed baseline ozone level calculated according to U.S. EPA guidance to

project the expected ozone level in the attainment year. In the San Joaquin Valley t h is

projected ozone leve l was a bove the federal 8

- hour ozone standard, indicating additional

emission reductions were needed.

To determine how many additional reductions were needed an ozone response diagram was

developed. T he modeling analyses showed that Arvin was the most re strictive site in the San

Joaquin Valley for attainment of the federal 8

- hour ozone standard

. The ozone response

diagram for Arvin is shown in Figure B

- 1. To develop this diagram, f urther modeling

simulations were conducted, each using incremental reductions of 20, 40, and 60 percent

from the 2023 emissions forecast

. From this information, the diagram provides the percent

reduction needed to achieve an ozone concentration that meets the standard. T his procedure

established the SIP emissions target for the 2007 San Joaquin Valley ozone SIP. It is also

apparent from Figure B

- 1 that the response to the NOx emission reductions is not linear. For

example as you move down the diagram to greater NOx reductions, the rate of ozone

improvement gets larger

.

Determining an emission target based on revised emissions would require extensive new SIP

modeling, following the process described above. However, to qualitatively assess the

viability of the current attainment tar get, two piece s of information we re key. First, as shown

in Table B

- 1 the greater percent emission reductions resulting from the revised inventory

would likely result in lower future ozone levels ( a more responsive RRF ). The diagram shows

also that NOx reductions are the most effectiv e precursor to control. Therefore, increasing

amounts of NOx reductions result in a greater ra te of air quality improvement. Taken together,

these two pieces of information suggest that the existing emission targets are appropriate.

The commitment to re visit the ozone modeling in the next San Joaquin Valley ozone SIP

process will provide a timely review of the 2023 emissions target.

Table B

- 1

Comparison of Original and Revised NOx Emission Estimates

in the San Joaquin Valley

2007 SIP NOx

Emissions (tpd) 2011 NOx

Emissions (tpd)

2002 Baseline 642 565

2023 Forecasted

without SIP 295 225

Percent Change

Between 2002 and

2023 54% 60%

### Appendix B

- Current Estimates of Remaining Emissions, Documentation and Methodology

Appendix B

- 10 June 20, 2011 Figure B

- 1

Arvin 2023 Ozone Response Diagram

## Appendix C

Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 1 June 20, 2011 8

- hour Ozone SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets Methodolog y

ARB is proposing to update the transportation conformity budgets applicable to the federal

8

- hour ozone standard for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley that will ensure that the

impact of on

- road emissions will be consistent with the attainment demo nstration in future

years. These updates account for the action taken by the Board in December 2010 to amend

the truck and bus regulations to include better data and improvements to the emissions

invento ry, and reflect the current rulemaking calendar. Ap pendix A provides the SIP revision.

The federal Clean Air Act requires metropolitan planning organizations (MPO s ) to

demonstrate that their regional transportation plans (RTP s ) and transportation improvement

programs (TIP) are consistent with progress tow ard and attainment of federal air quality

standard s . MPOs use modeling to estimate regional emissions based on projected motor

vehicle travel on the region’s road and transit facilities.

The level of emissions for on

- road motor vehicles, such as cars, tr ucks, and buses, consistent

with SIP progress and attainment, are called " Transportation Conformity B udget s .” For

conformity, projected emissions from highway and transit use must be less than or equal to

the budget. Budgets are developed during the air quality planning process in consultation

with ARB, regional air districts, U.S. EPA, the U.S. Department of Transportation, and MPOs

and provide for public review and comment.

The conformity budgets use the SIP on

- road mobile source inventory which includ es an

updated heavy duty diesel truck and bus inventory that reflects the 2010 truck and bus

regulatory amendments. This adjustment reflects the differe nce between the baseline SIP

on

- road motor vehicle emissions inventory from EMFAC2007 and the new truck and bus

inventory that incorporates the impacts of both the recession and final regulations. The ton

per day change in emissions is incorporated as a line item adjustment to the updated

transportation conformity budgets (see “State Strategy Adjustments” line item in Tables C

- 1

and C

- 2 below).

Methodologically, the State Strategy Adjustments line item is then subtracted from the

baseline SIP on

- road motor vehicle emissions inventory from EMFAC2007. Importantly, the

SIP baseline emissions inventory used to develop the transportation conformity budgets

continues to be based on the activity data (e.g. vehicle miles travelled) provided by the MPOs

included in the SIPs.

This line item approach to accou nt for State S trategy reductions is consistent with th e

approach used to develop the originally submitted budgets. The transportation conformity

budget development worksheets a re included in Tables C

- 1 and C

- 2 below, with the proposed

SIP budgets found in Appendix A

.

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 2 June 20, 2011 Line

- Item Adjustments in 8

- hour Ozone Conformity Budgets for South Coast and

San Joaquin Valley

The following section describes the line

- item adjustments used in the existing transportation

conformity budgets (as adopted in 2007) as well as those in the revised budgets ARB staff is

proposing today.

Line

- Item Adjustments in the Existing 8

- hour Ozone SIP Budgets

(Adopted 2007)

EMFAC2007 Baseline, covering 2008, 2011 , 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023 for South Coast

and San Joaquin Valley

Line

- Item Adjustments To Baseline For Measures

Adopted Pr ior To December 2006

(Referred to as “Adjustments to Baseline” in Budgets,

adjustments included in applicable years)



### South Coast and San Joaquin Valley

 Heavy Duty Diesel Truck (HDDT) Chip Reflash

 HDDT Public Fleet and Solid Waste Rules

 HDDT Idling Rule

 A B 1493 GHG Standards

 On

- Road Portion of Carl Moyer Program

San Joaquin Valley Only

 District Rule 9310

– School Buses

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 3 June 20, 2011

Line

- Item Adjustments for Proposed SIP Measures

(Referred to as “State Strategy Reductions” in Budgets,

adjustments included in applicable years)



### South Coast and San Joaquin Valley

 All Smog Check Improvements (Low Pressure Evap, Cutpoints,

Annual Insp. for Older, Annual Insp. for High Mileage,

Motorcycles, Lt. Duty Diesels)

 HDDT In

- Use Rule

 Reformulated Gasoline

 Expanded Vehicl e Retirement

South Coast Only

 AB 923 High Emitter

San Joaquin Valley Only

 Indirect Source Rule

Line

- Item Adjustments in the Proposed New Budgets

EMFAC2007 Baseline, covering 201 1, 2014 , 2017, 2020, and 2023 for South Coast and

San Joaquin Valley

Li ne

- Item Adjustments to Baseline for Measures

Adopted Prior to December 2006

(Referred to as “Adjustments to Baseline” in Budgets,

adjustments included in applicable years)



### South Coast and San Joaquin Valley

 AB 1493 GHG Standards

 On

- Road Portion of Carl Mo yer Program

San Joaquin Valley Only

 District Rule 9310

– School Buses

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 4 June 20, 2011 Adjustments Now Included in New Heavy Duty Diesel Truck Model

(Included in “State Strategy Adjustments” in Budgets,

adjustments included in applicable years)



### South Coast and San J oaquin Valley

 New HDDT Inventory

 HDDT Recession Impacts

 HDDT In

- Use Rule

 HDDT Chip Re

- flash

 HDDT Public Fleet and Solid Waste Rules

 HDDT Idling Rule

Line

- Item Adjustments for Adopted SIP Measures

(Included in “State Strategy Adjustments” in Budgets,

a djustments included in applicable years)



### South Coast and San Joaquin Valley

 Smog Check Improvements (Lo w Pressure Evap, Cutpoints,

Lt. Duty Diesels, Smoke Test)

 Reformulated Gasoline

San Joaquin Valley

 Employee Based Trip Reduction Rule

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 5 June 20, 2011 Table C

- 1

South Coast Air Basin

Ozone Transportation Conformity Emission Budget Worksheets*

( Summer Season

– tpd

)



### South Coast Air Basin ROG NOx

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Baseline Emissions (EMFAC 2007 Default) 176.0 150. 1 131.1 117.0 106.1 367.7 299.9 243.5 200.2 171.8

Adjustments for Adopted State and Local On

- road Measures

- 0.3

- 0.6

- 0.9

- 1.1

- 1.5

- 1.4

- 1.4

- 1.0

- 0.1

- 0.1

State Strategy

- On

- road Reductions

- 4.5

- 14.2

- 11.5

- 8.5

- 6.2

- 38.9

- 22.3

- 18.8

- 15.6

- 31. 9

SUM 171.2 135.2 118.8 107.4 98.4 327.5 276.3 223.6 184.5 139.8

Proposed Budget 172 136 119 108 99 328 277 224 185 140

*Budgets are rounded up to the nearest ton.

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 6 June 20, 2011 Table C

- 2

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

Ozone Transportation Con formity Emission Budget Worksheets*

( Summer Season

– tpd

)



### Proposed 2011 Transportation Conformity Budgets

County Subarea Fresno Kern Kings Madera Merced San Joaquin Stanislaus Tulare

ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx

Base line EMFAC2007 15.62 51.87 15.76 86.69 3.34 17.28 3.68 13.11 6.20 31.38 12.13 37.28 9.00 24.06 9.26 22.41

Existing Measures:

Local Reductions 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02

State Reducti ons 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.12 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.08 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.04

New/Proposed Measures:

Local Reductions 0.15 0.05 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.12 0.04 0.09 0.03 0.07 0.03

State Reductions 1.20 15.51 3.01 36.29 0.57 6.62 0.36 3.85 1.14 11.45 0.95 12.57 0.46 7.15 0.41 6.42

Total 14.27 36.17 12.63 50.22 2.74 10.62 3.30 9.23 5.01 19.85 11.06 24.56 8.45 16.81 8.77 15.90

Budget* 14.3 36.2 12.7 50.3 2.8 10.7 3.4 9.3 5.1 19.9 11.1 24.6 8.5 16.9 8.8 16.0

*Budget s are rounded up to the nearest tenth ton (0.1).

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 7 June 20, 2011 Proposed 2014 Transportation Conformity Budgets

County Subarea Fresno Kern Kings Madera Merced San Joaquin Stanislaus Tulare

ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx

Baseline EMFAC2007 13.04 40.67 13.56 70.77 2.75 13.53 3.04 10.53 5.07 24.61 10.19 30.08 7.54 18.71 7.76 17.84

Existing Measures:

Local Reductions 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03

State Reductions 0 .01 0.10 0.01 0.12 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.08 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.04

New/Proposed Measures:

Local Reductions 0.29 0.27 0.21 0.19 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.08 0.24 0.23 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.13

State Reductions 2.10 10.30 3.68 27.76 0.69 4.56 0.56 2.80 1.33 7.84 1.63 9.31 1.02 4.60 0.99 4.48

Total 10.64 29.95 9.66 42.65 2.00 8.89 2.43 7.66 3.64 16.62 8.31 20.42 6.34 13.86 6.62 13.16

Budget* 10.7 30.0 9.7 42.7 2.1 8.9 2.5 7.7 3.7 16.7 8.4 20.5 6.4 13.9 6.7 13.2

*Budgets are rounded up to the nearest tenth ton (0.1).

Proposed 2017 Transportation Conformity Budgets

County Subarea Fresno Kern Kings Madera Merced San Joaquin Stanislaus Tulare

ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx

Baseline EMFAC2007 11.18 32.41 11.67 55.71 2.31 10.52 2.59 8.54 4.21 19.24 8.64 23.57 6.50 14.76 6.70 14.35

Existing Measures:

Local Reductions 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.06

State Reductions 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.09 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.03

New/Proposed Measures:

Local Reductions 0.20 0.22 0.14 0.16 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.18 0.19 0.12 0.13 0.10 0.11

State Reductions 1.68 9.42 2.85 23.78 0.51 3.83 0.45 2.6 8 1.01 6.72 1.27 7.70 0.81 4.01 0.81 4.09

Total 9.29 22.57 8.66 31.60 1.76 6.62 2.10 5.79 3.13 12.38 7.18 15.51 5.56 10.51 5.79 10.06

Budget* 9.3 22.6 8.7 31.7 1.8 6.7 2.2 5.8 3.2 12.4 7.2 15.6 5.6 10.6 5.8 10.1

*Budgets are rounded up to the nearest te nth ton (0.1).

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 8 June 20, 2011 Proposed 2020 Transportation Conformity Budgets

County Subarea Fresno Kern Kings Madera Merced San Joaquin Stanislaus Tulare

ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx

Baseline EMFAC2007 9.64 25.94 10.36 44.65 2. 00 8.49 2.28 7.22 3.63 15.70 7.49 18.57 5.70 11.86 5.96 11.88

Existing Measures:

Local Reductions 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.05

State Reductions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

New/Proposed Measures:

Local Reductions 0.27 0.18 0.19 0.13 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.09 0.06 0.24 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.13 0.09

State Reductions 1.15 7.96 2.01 19.39 0.36 3. 20 0.34 2.55 0.70 5.79 0.89 5.94 0.58 3.34 0.60 3.68

Total 8.21 17.69 8.16 25.06 1.60 5.24 1.90 4.62 2.84 9.82 6.36 12.38 4.96 8.35 5.23 8.05

Budget* 8.3 17.7 8.2 25.1 1.7 5.3 2.0 4.7 2.9 9.9 6.4 12.4 5.0 8.4 5.3 8.1

*Budgets are rounded up to the neare st tenth ton (0.1).

Proposed 2023 Transportation Conformity Budgets

County Subarea Fresno Kern Kings Madera Merced San Joaquin Stanislaus Tulare

ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx ROG NOx

Baseline EMFAC2007 9.08 22.89 9.44 37.62 1.81 7.29 2.13 6.49 3.32 13.80 7.20 16.67 5.23 10.19 5.44 10.24

Existing Measures:

Local Reductions 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.05

State Reductions 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0. 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

New/Proposed Measures:

Local Reductions 0.25 0.15 0.18 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.08 0.05 0.22 0.13 0.15 0.09 0.12 0.07

State Reductions 0.88 9.15 1.43 18.86 0.26 3.34 0.27 2.92 0.53 6.33 0.71 6.52 0.43 3.65 0.46 3.93

Total 7.95 13.49 7.83 18.58 1.51 3.91 1.81 3.53 2.71 7.38 6.26 9.92 4.65 6.39 4.85 6.19

Budget* 8.0 13.5 7.9 18.6 1.6 4.0 1.9 3.6 2.8 7.4 6.3 10.0 4.7 6.4 4.9 6.2

*Budgets are rounded up to the near est tenth ton (0.1).

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 9 June 20, 2011 Minor Technical Revisions to the PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

ARB has adopted the April 2011 revisions to the PM2.5 SIP transportation conformity budgets

for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. ARB staff is now proposing the following minor

technical revisions to the PM2.5 SIP transportation conformity budgets:

 Remove the benefits for indirect source review (ISR) from the adjustments to the San

Joaquin Valley PM2.5 conformity budgets based on U.S. EPA’s recent M ay 9, 2011

action regarding Rule 9510 in the San Joaquin Valley. The San Joaquin Valley Air

Pollution Control District adopted Rule 9510 ISR, which was intended to regulate

facilities which attract or may attract mobile sources of air pollution. The bene fit that

the Air District in cluded from the rule in the 2008 PM2.5 SIP will be removed for the

conformity budget calculation.

 R emove the benefits for AB 923 (Firebaugh, 2004) from the adjustments to the South

Coast PM2.5 conformity budgets. AB 923 expand ed the types of emissions covered

by the Carl Moyer program to include additional emissions of particulate matter and

reactive organic gases from defined covered sources in the S tate. The South Coast

Air Quality Management District included benefits from AB 923 as one of the SIP

strategy reductions in its 2007 Air Quality Management Plan. The Air District’s latest

SIP revision in April 2011 did not include the benefits from AB 923. ARB is adjusting

the conformity budgets to be consistent with the Air Dis trict action.

 Correct data entry error s in the budget calculations for the South Coast and

San Joaquin Valley.

The transportation conformity budget development worksheets a re included in Tables C

- 3 and

C

- 4

, below

.

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 10 June 20, 2011 Table C

- 3

South Coast Air Basin

PM2. 5 Transportation Conformity Emission Budget Worksheets*

( Annual Average

– Tons per Day)

South Coast Air Basin 2012 2014

ROG NOx PM2.5 ROG NOx PM2.5

Baseline Inventory 162.6 350.8 17.5 146.1 305.7 17.2

Re

- entrained Road Dust (Paved)

-- -- 18.8

-- -- 19. 0

Re

- entrained Road Dust (Unpaved)

-- -- 1.0

-- -- 1.0

Road Construction Dust

-- -- 0.2

-- -- 0.2

State Strategy Adjustments

- 8.7

- 23.7

- 1.4

- 13.6

- 15.1

- 2.8

Adjustme n t s to Baseline

- 0.4

- 1.4

- 0.1

- 0.6

- 1.4

- 0.2

Budgets 154 326 37 132 290 35

*Budget s are rounded up to the nearest ton.

### Appendix C

– Description of Technical Revisions to the

8

- hour Ozone and PM2.5 SIP Transportation Conformity Budgets

Appendix C

- 11 June 20, 2011 Table C

- 4

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

PM2.5 Transportation Conformity Emission Budget Worksheets*

( Annual Average

– tpd

)

County Subarea 2012 2014

PM2.5 NOx PM2.5 NOx

Fresno Baseline Inven tory 1.82 47.82 1.65 40.60

State Strategy Adjustments 0.36 11.99 0.56 9.07

Adjustme n t s to Baseline 0.01 0.16 0.02 0.22

Budgets 1.5 35.7 1.1 31.4

Kern (SJV) Baseline Inventory 2.98 81.58 2.63 70.28

State Strategy Adjustments 1.14 32.46 1.44 26.29

Adjustme n t s to Baseline 0.01 0.23 0.01 0.28

Budgets 1.9 48.9 1.2 43.8

Kings Baseline Inventory 0.59 16 0.51 13.52

State Strategy Adjustments 0.20 5.47 0.26 4.20

Adjustme n t s to Baseline 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.06

Budgets 0.4 10.5 0.3 9.3

Madera Baseline Inventory 0.5 12.30 0.46 10.62

State Strategy Adjustments 0.12 3.14 0.17 2.55

Adjustme n t s to Baseline 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.07

Budgets 0.4 9.2 0.3 8.1

Merced Baseline Inventory 1.19 29.15 1.05 24.67

State Strategy Adjustments 0.40 9.37 0.50 7.16

Adj ustme n t s to Baseline 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.14

Budgets 0.8 19.7 0.6 17.4

San Joaquin Baseline Inventory 1.39 35.24 1.29 30.27

State Strategy Adjustments 0.36 10.73 0.46 8.58

Adjustme n t s to Baseline 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.14

Budgets 1.1 24.5 0.9 21.6

Stanisla us Baseline Inventory 0.84 22.25 0.76 18.69

State Strategy Adjustments 0.16 5.58 0.23 4.04

Adjustme n t s to Baseline 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.07

Budgets 0.7 16.7 0.6 14.6

Tulare Baseline Inventory 0.75 20.87 0.69 17.88

State Strategy Adjustments 0.13 5.19 0 .21 4.05

Adjustme n t s to Baseline 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.10

Budgets 0.7 15.7 0.5 13.8

*Budgets are rounded up to the nearest tenth ton (0.1).

## A ppendix D

Adopted Rulemaking Calendar

(Note: This rulemaking calendar was included as A ppendix D to the ARB staff report entitled,

“ Progress Report on Implementation of PM2.5 State Implementation Plans (SIP) for the

South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins and Proposed SIP Revisions ” and is included

here unchanged for informational purposes .)

### March 29, 2011 Appendix B 1

(Note: This rulemaking calendar was adopted in April 2011 as Appendix D to the ARB staff report entitled,

“Progress Report on Implementation of PM2.5 State Implementation Plans (SIP) for the South Coast and

San Joaquin Valley Air Basins and Proposed SIP Revisions” and is included here unchanged for

in formational purposes.) 

### APPENDI X B: Rulemaking Calendar

Table B

- 1

Proposed Update to 2007 State Strategy: PM2.5 SIP Measures

Agency Actions Implementation

Passenger Vehicles

Smog Check Improvements BAR 2007

- 2009 2008

- 2010;

2013 1

Expanded Vehicle Retirement (AB 118) ARB/BAR 2007 200 9

Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program ARB 2007 2010

Trucks

Cleaner In

- Use Heavy

- Duty Trucks ARB 2007, 2008,

2010 2011

- 2015

Goods Movement Sources

Auxiliary Ship Engine Cold Ironing & Other Clean Tech

EPA/ARB/

Local 2007, 2008 2010

Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel 2 Fuel: 2008

-

2011 2009

- 2015

Engines: 2008 2011

Port Truck Modernization ARB, Local 2007,2008,

2010 2008

- 2020

Accelerated Intro. of Cleaner Line

- Haul Locomotives 3 EPA/ARB 2008 2012

Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft ARB 2007, 20 10 2009

- 2018

Off

- Road Equipment

Cleaner In

- Use Off

- Road Equipment 4 ARB 2007, 2010 2009

Other Off

- Road Sources

New Emission Standards for Recreational Boats 5 ARB See notes See notes

Expanded Off

- Road Recreational Vehicle Emission

Standards 5 ARB See not es See notes

Enhanced Vapor Recovery for Above

- Ground Storage

Tanks ARB 2008 2009

- 2016

Additional Evaporative Emission Standards 5 2009 2010

- 2012

See notes See notes

Areawide Sources

Consumer Products Program ARB 2008 2010

2009 2013

- 2014

2011 2014

Pesticide Regulation DPR 2008, 2009 2009

### March 29, 2011 Appendix B 2

(Note: This rulemaking calendar was adopted in April 2011 as Appendix D to the ARB staff report entitled,

“Progress Report on Implementation of PM2.5 State Implementation Plans (SIP) for the South Coast and

San Joaquin Valley Air Basins and Proposed SIP Revisions” and is included here unchanged for

in formational purposes.) 1 

### In 2010, the State Legislature improved the effectiveness of the Smog Check program

(AB 2289), requiring the Bureau of Automotive Repair to direct older vehicles to high

performing auto technicians and test stations for inspection and certification. This new

program will be effective in 2013.

2 

### In July 2008, ARB adopted a regulation that applies to ships operating within 24

nautical miles (nm) of the California Coastline and visiting California ports. Thes e

vessels must use less polluting marine distillate fuel for their main engines, auxiliary

engines, and boilers instead of heavy fuel oil. The first phase of cleaner fuel for ship

main engines took effect in 2009, with a second phase currently scheduled i n 2012. By

2015, the International Maritime Organization's fuel sulfur requirements for the North

American Emission Control Area will match ARB’s phase 2 standards and extend out to

200 miles from California Coastline.

3 

### In 2008, ARB awarded Prop 1B bond funds to upgrade line

- haul locomotive engines

not already accounted for by enforceable agreements with the railroads. Those cleaner

line

- hauls will begin operation by 2012.

4 

### Reductions begin in 2014.

5 

### Expected action in 2013, with implementation schedul es to be determined in

rulemaking process.

### (Page intentionally blank.)

## A ppendix E

Analysis of Environmental Impacts

### Appendix E

- 1 June 20, 2011 Analysis of Environmental Impacts

ARB prepared an environmental analysis for the State Strategy for Calif ornia's State

Implementation Plan (SIP) for the New Federal PM2.5 and 8

- Hour Ozone Standards

prior to its approval by the Board in September 2007 (State Strategy). The State Strategy

mapped out the actions ARB would take to reduce emissions to levels desi gned to bring

California into compliance with federal air quality standards. The State Strategy is available

for review at :

http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm

an d at ARB’s offices at :

1001 I Street, Sa cramento, California, Room 7

- 45

Various measures identified in the 2007 State Strategy have been adopted by the Board since

that time, and separate, additional environmental analyses were also prepared by ARB prior

to the adoption of each of these measures. As part of tracking the implementation of the State

Strategy, this report quantifies the emission reductions that have been achieved since

adoption of the 2007 State Strategy

. The proposed SIP revisions do not change the emission

levels of NOx and ROG that the Board committed to achieve by specific dates when it

adopted the 2007 State Strategy.

The proposed SIP revisions include four components: (1) an update to ARB’s rulemaking

calendar for one measure , (2) updates to reasonable further progress (RFP) tables and

associated reductions for contingency purposes, (3) updates to the transportation conformity

budgets , and (4) updates to the actions ARB would take to identify and implement advanced

technology contr ol measures as allowed under section 182(e)(5) of the federal Clean Air

Act (Act) . The proposed revisions do not cause any change that has the potential to result in

a direct physical change in the environment or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical

change in the environment, for the following reasons.

The updates to the rulemaking calendar reflect the current status of measures that have

already been adopted, and changes to the expected dates by which emission reductions

would be achieved for th e agricultural tractor emission control measure

. T he update to the

rulemaking calendar do es not change the measure or its expected emission reductions

identified in the 2007 State Strategy. They merely change the dates by which ARB staff will

bring th is measure to the Board for proposed action by the Board.

T he updates to the RFP tables, contingency measure reductions and transportation

conformity budgets are proposed accounting changes made to reflect the current status of

adopted measures, better d ata, changes due to the recession, and methodological

improvements to the emission inventory. These accounting changes do not change the

strategies or commitments identified in the 2007 State Strate gy to achieve specific emission

reductions by specified d ates. Because no changes have been made to the strategies or the

underlying emission reduction commitments in the 2007 State Strategy, there is no potential

for any of the proposed SIP revisions to cause any significant adverse environmental impacts.

The revisions to the advanced technology discussion do not alter ARB’s commitment to

identify and implement emission reductions as required by section 182(e)(5) of the Act.