13-i

CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

13.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 13-1 

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS............................................................................................................ 13-1 

13.3 METHOD ...................................................................................................................... 13-2 

13.4 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 13-3

13-4

13-5

13-5

13-6

13-6

13-7

13-7

13-8

13-9

13-9

13-10

13-10

13-11

13-11

13-12

13-12

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 13.4.1 AEO2009 Stimulus Reference (American Recovery and Reinvestment 

Act) Case Forecast ............................................................................................. 

Table 13.4.2 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast..................... 

Table 13.4.3 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast..................... 

Table 13.4.4 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast..................... 

Table 13.4.5 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast..................... 

Table 13.4.6 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast..................... 

Table 13.4.7 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast..................... 

Table 13.4.8 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast..................... 

Table 13.4.9 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast............. 

Table 13.4.10 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast............. 

Table 13.4.11 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast........... 

Table 13.4.12 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast........... 

Table 13.4.13 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast........... 

Table 13.4.14 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast........... 

Table 13.4.15 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast........... 

Table 13.4.16 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 8 Forecast........... 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

13.1 INTRODUCTION 

 DOE analyzed the effects of small electric motor standard levels on the electric utility 

industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy 

Modeling System (NEMS).a NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectored, partial equilibrium 

model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a baseline e

forecast for the United States, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The AEO for 2009 (AEO2009)

forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030.1 DOE used a variant of this model, referred 

to here as NEMS-BT,

nergy 

 

b to account for the impacts of small electric motor energy conservation 

standards on the baseline energy forecast. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a comparison 

between model results for the AEO2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Case and for 

policy cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the 

AEO2009. For example, the operating characteristics (e.g., energy conversion efficiency, 

emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants are as specified in the AEO2009 Reference 

Case, as are the prospects for natural gas supply. 

 The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation that 

result for each trial standard level (TSL) by fuel type, as well as changes in residential electricity 

consumption. The AEO2009 reference case corresponds to the American Recovery and 

Reinvestment Act (Stimulus) case.

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in 

the analysis of energy conservation standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well 

known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, 

the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various 

energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of 

the effects of energy conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used 

to estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of energy 

conservation standards than considering only average effects. 

a

 For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003), 

March, 2003. 

b

 DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any 

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run 

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT 

was previously called NEMS-BRS. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
13-2 

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AEO2009 and treats polyphase 

and capacitor-start small electric motor energy conservation standards as variations in policy. 

The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2009 Reference Case and 

each proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards reduces total electricity 

demand by less than one percent in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the 

simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for 

the TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. 

13.3 METHOD 

 DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (chapter 

10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be 

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger 

than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results 

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMSBT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the 

results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. 

 Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity consumption in the NEMS-BT 

Residential Demand, Commercial Demand, and Industrial Demand Modules. The savings are 

divided evenly among the U.S. Census divisions. All fuels are considered simultaneously. 

 Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the small electric 

motor energy conservation standards analysis extend to the year 2045. It is not feasible to extend 

the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an 

approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem 

reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable 

because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by 

extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal 

emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is 

beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. 

Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While 

these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be 

consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the 

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the 

extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are 

included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are 

shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
13-3 

13.4 RESULTS 

 The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity, 

and residential-sector consumption. Results are for all TSLs are presented in five-year 

increments to year 2030. Beyond year 2030, an extrapolation to 2045 for each proposed TSL 

represents a simple replication of the year 2030 results. 

 The results from the AEO2009 Reference Case are shown in Table 13.4.1. 

A separate set of TSLs are modeled for each energy conservation standard product. Seven 

TSL are modeled for polyphase small electric motors and eight TSLs are modeled for capacitorstart small electric motors. The reference case results for each TSL are presented in Tables 13.4.2 

through 13.4.16. The results from polyphase SEM TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.2 through 

13.4.8 and the results from capacitor-start SEM TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.9 through 

13.4.16. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 13.3 for 

total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity. 

The proposed polyphase SEM TSLs reduce electricity consumption compared to the 

AEO2009 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA model range from 0.004 

to 0.042 percent of total electricity consumption by year 2030. 

The proposed capacitor-start SEM TSLs also reduce electricity consumption compared to 

the AEO2009 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA model range from 

0.10 to 0.22 percent of total electricity consumption by year 2030. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
Table 13.4.1 AEO2009 Stimulus Reference (American Recovery and Reinvestment 

Act) Case Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: AEO2009 Reference

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00

Other (Quads)3 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4

Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797

Total (TWh)5 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021

Installed Generating Capacity 6

Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6

Other Fossil (GW)7 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3

Total (GW)8 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3

Residential Fuel Prices 9

Electricity (¢/kWh) 10.00 9.77 10.55 11.08 11.24 11.79

Natural Gas ($/GJ) 12.39 10.61 10.75 11.90 12.00 13.27

Petroleum Products ($/GJ) 16.57 12.66 20.46 23.24 23.84 25.48

Natural Gas ($/MBtu) 13.07 11.19 11.34 12.56 12.66 14.00

Petroleum Products ($/MBtu) 17.48 13.36 21.59 24.52 25.15 26.88

1

Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2009: Energy Consumption, Residential

2

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electricity Sales by Sector

3

Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

4

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

5

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

6

Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

7

Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

8

Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

9

Comparable to Table A3 of AEO2009: Residential

13-4 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
Table 13.4.2 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.12 -0.20 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 -0.05 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.02 0.04 -0.01 -0.06 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.02 -0.07 -0.06 -0.07 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.12 -0.19 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 

Table 13.4.3 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,660 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.29 -0.47 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.05 0.10 -0.03 -0.14 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.04 -0.15 -0.15 -0.16 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.27 -0.43 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.05 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.3 1,071.4 1,125.8 1,185.2 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 -0.07 -0.10 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
Table 13.4.4 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,570 1,660 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.53 -0.88 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 -0.16 -0.23 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.09 0.19 -0.06 -0.27 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.08 -0.28 -0.28 -0.30 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,811 5,020 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.50 -0.80 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.3 542.3 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.09 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.0 176.0 182.2 188.2 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.3 1,071.4 1,125.7 1,185.1 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.11 -0.12 -0.18 

Table 13.4.5 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,570 1,660 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.10 -0.61 -1.00 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.05 -0.19 -0.27 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.10 0.22 -0.07 -0.31 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.09 -0.33 -0.32 -0.35 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,811 5,020 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.57 -0.92 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.3 542.3 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.10 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.0 176.0 182.2 188.2 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.3 1,071.4 1,125.7 1,185.1 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.12 -0.14 -0.21 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
Table 13.4.6 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,659 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -1.03 -1.68 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.02 -0.08 -0.32 -0.45 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 907 978 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.17 0.37 -0.11 -0.52 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 644 706 770 796 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.16 -0.55 -0.53 -0.58 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,810 5,019 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.96 -1.54 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.7 499.2 542.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.07 -0.17 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.4 170.9 175.9 182.2 188.1 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.05 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.1 1,049.2 1,071.3 1,125.6 1,184.9 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.05 -0.20 -0.24 -0.34 

Table 13.4.7 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,659 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -1.13 -1.85 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.02 -0.09 -0.35 -0.49 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 907 978 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.19 0.41 -0.12 -0.57 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 644 706 770 796 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.18 -0.60 -0.59 -0.64 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,810 5,019 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.28 -1.06 -1.70 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.5 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.7 499.2 542.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.07 -0.19 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.4 170.9 175.9 182.1 188.1 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.06 -0.17 -0.17 -0.16 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.1 1,049.2 1,071.2 1,125.5 1,184.9 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.06 -0.22 -0.26 -0.38 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
Table 13.4.8 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,659 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.21 -1.31 -2.15 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,202 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.02 -0.10 -0.40 -0.57 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 907 978 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.22 0.47 -0.14 -0.66 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 644 706 770 796 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.20 -0.70 -0.68 -0.74 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,810 5,019 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.33 -1.23 -1.98 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.5 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.7 499.2 542.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.09 -0.22 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.4 170.9 175.9 182.1 188.1 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.06 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.1 1,049.1 1,071.2 1,125.5 1,184.8 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.07 -0.26 -0.31 -0.44 

13-8 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
Table 13.4.9 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.16 -0.22 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,202 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.06 -0.28 -1.15 -1.36 Gas (TWh) 753 776 648 713 906 977 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.55 1.08 -0.61 -1.54 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 643 705 769 795 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.50 -1.68 -1.65 -1.80 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,307 4,541 4,807 5,016 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.89 -3.41 -4.69 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.5 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.1 451.6 498.9 541.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.10 -0.20 -0.50 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.3 170.6 175.6 181.8 187.8 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.16 -0.47 -0.47 -0.46 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.0 1,048.8 1,070.8 1,124.9 1,184.2 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.17 -0.63 -0.73 -1.02 

Table 13.4.10 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.16 -0.22 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,202 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.06 -0.29 -1.17 -1.38 Gas (TWh) 753 776 648 713 906 977 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.56 1.10 -0.62 -1.57 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 467 643 705 769 795 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.51 -1.71 -1.68 -1.83 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,307 4,541 4,807 5,016 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.90 -3.47 -4.77 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.5 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.1 451.6 498.9 541.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.10 -0.21 -0.51 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.3 170.6 175.6 181.8 187.8 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.16 -0.48 -0.48 -0.47 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.0 1,048.8 1,070.8 1,124.9 1,184.2 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.17 -0.64 -0.75 -1.04 

13-9 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
Table 13.4.11 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.20 -0.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,201 2,303 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.07 -0.36 -1.48 -1.76 Gas (TWh) 753 776 648 713 906 977 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.72 1.39 -0.78 -1.99 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 467 643 705 769 795 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.65 -2.18 -2.14 -2.33 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,307 4,540 4,806 5,015 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -1.15 -4.41 -6.07 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.4 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.1 451.5 498.7 541.7 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.13 -0.27 -0.65 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.3 170.5 175.5 181.7 187.7 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.20 -0.61 -0.60 -0.59 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.0 1,048.6 1,070.6 1,124.6 1,183.9 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.22 -0.81 -0.95 -1.32 

Table 13.4.12 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.23 -0.33 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,196 2,201 2,303 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.08 -0.42 -1.72 -2.04 Gas (TWh) 753 776 649 713 906 976 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.83 1.61 -0.91 -2.31 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 467 642 705 768 794 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.75 -2.52 -2.48 -2.69 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,307 4,539 4,805 5,014 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -1.33 -5.11 -7.03 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.4 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.1 451.5 498.6 541.6 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.02 -0.15 -0.31 -0.75 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.3 170.4 175.4 181.6 187.6 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.24 -0.70 -0.70 -0.69 Total (GW) 952.3 1,029.9 1,048.5 1,070.4 1,124.4 1,183.6 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.25 -0.94 -1.10 -1.53 

13-10 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
Table 13.4.13 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.23 -0.32 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,196 2,201 2,303 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.08 -0.41 -1.67 -1.99 Gas (TWh) 753 776 649 713 906 976 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.81 1.57 -0.88 -2.26 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 467 643 705 768 794 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.73 -2.46 -2.42 -2.63 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,307 4,539 4,805 5,014 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -1.30 -4.99 -6.88 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.4 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.1 451.5 498.7 541.7 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.02 -0.15 -0.30 -0.74 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.3 170.4 175.4 181.6 187.6 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.23 -0.68 -0.68 -0.67 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.0 1,048.5 1,070.4 1,124.4 1,183.7 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.25 -0.92 -1.07 -1.50 

Table 13.4.14 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.29 -0.40 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,137 2,196 2,200 2,302 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.10 -0.52 -2.12 -2.52 Gas (TWh) 753 776 649 713 905 976 Gas (TWh) 0.00 1.03 1.99 -1.12 -2.85 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 467 642 704 768 794 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.92 -3.11 -3.06 -3.32 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,306 4,538 4,803 5,012 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -1.64 -6.31 -8.68 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.3 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.0 451.4 498.5 541.5 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.02 -0.19 -0.38 -0.93 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.2 170.2 175.2 181.5 187.4 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.29 -0.87 -0.86 -0.85 Total (GW) 952.3 1,029.9 1,048.2 1,070.1 1,124.0 1,183.2 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.31 -1.16 -1.36 -1.89 

13-11 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
13-12 

Table 13.4.15 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.30 -0.41 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,137 2,196 2,200 2,302 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.11 -0.53 -2.17 -2.57 Gas (TWh) 753 776 649 713 905 976 Gas (TWh) 0.00 1.05 2.04 -1.15 -2.91 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 467 642 704 768 794 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.95 -3.18 -3.13 -3.40 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,306 4,538 4,803 5,012 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -1.68 -6.45 -8.88 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.3 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.11 -0.12 -0.12 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.0 451.4 498.4 541.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.02 -0.19 -0.39 -0.95 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.2 170.2 175.2 181.4 187.4 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.30 -0.89 -0.88 -0.87 Total (GW) 952.3 1,029.9 1,048.2 1,070.1 1,124.0 1,183.2 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.32 -1.19 -1.39 -1.94 

Table 13.4.16 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 8 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,660 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.34 -0.47 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,137 2,195 2,200 2,302 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.12 -0.62 -2.50 -2.97 Gas (TWh) 753 776 649 713 905 975 Gas (TWh) 0.00 1.21 2.35 -1.32 -3.36 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (TWh) 357 467 641 703 767 793 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -1.09 -3.68 -3.61 -3.93 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,306 4,537 4,802 5,010 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -1.94 -7.45 -10.25 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating CapacityCoal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.3 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.0 451.4 498.3 541.3 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.02 -0.22 -0.45 -1.10 Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.2 170.1 175.1 181.3 187.3 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.34 -1.02 -1.02 -1.00 Total (GW) 952.3 1,029.8 1,048.0 1,069.9 1,123.7 1,182.9 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.37 -1.37 -1.60 -2.23 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
13-13 

REFERENCES 

1. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 

2030, 2009. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2009). 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/> 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17