Understanding Key Issues of 

Sustainable Wood Production 

in the Pacific Northwest

United States 

Department of 

Agriculture

Forest Service

Pacific Northwest 

Research Station

General Technical 

Report

PNW-GTR-626

January 2005
EDITORS

Robert L. Deal is a research forester and Seth M. White is a science writereditor, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station, Focused Science Delivery Program, 620 SW Main St., Suite 

400, Portland, OR 97205. White is also a graduate student in the Department 

of Fisheries and Wildlife at Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331.

Cover photo: Tom Iraci, USDA Forest Service.

The Forest Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture is dedicated to the principle 

of multiple use management of the Nation’s forest resources for sustained yields of 

wood, water, forage, wildlife, and recreation. Through forestry research, cooperation 

with the States and private forest owners, and management of the National Forests 

and National Grasslands, it strives—as directed by Congress—to provide increasingly 

greater service to a growing Nation.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its 

programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, 

age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, or marital or family status. (Not 

all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require 

alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, 

audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice 

and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 

Room 326-W. Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, 

DC 20250-9410 or call (202) 720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal 

opportunity provider and employer.
Understanding Key Issues of 

Sustainable Wood Production 

in the Pacific Northwest

Robert L. Deal and Seth M. White

Editors
ABSTRACT

Deal, Robert L.; White, Seth M., eds. 2005. Understanding key issues of sustainable wood production in the Pacific Northwest. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-626. 

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 67 p.

Researchers involved with the Pacific Northwest (PNW)`Research Station Sustainable 

Wood Production Initiative have outlined some of the barriers and opportunities for 

sustainable wood production in the region. Sustainable wood production is defined 

as the capacity of forests to produce wood, products, and services on a long-term 

basis and in the context of human activity and use. The collective findings of these 

papers suggest that in the future, the region’s wood supply will primarily come from 

private land, and the barriers and opportunities related to sustainable wood production will have more to do with future markets, harvest potential, land use changes, 

and sustainable forestry options than with traditional sustained yield outputs. 

Private lands in the PNW should be able to sustain recent historical harvest levels 

over the next 50 years, but regional changes in sawmilling capacity and uncertain 

market conditions may affect wood production in the region. Public perceptions of 

forestry, land use changes, and alternative forestry options are also discussed. These 

papers present preliminary findings and proposals for future work designed to help 

us understand the key issues related to sustainable wood production.

Keywords: Pacific Northwest, sustainable forestry, wood production, timber harvest, 

land use changes, economics.
CONTENTS

1. Sustainable Wood Production: What Are the Issues for the Pacific 

Northwest? by Robert L. Deal and Seth M. White

 2 Literature Cited

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

2. Timber Harvest Potential From Private Lands in the Pacific 

Northwest: Biological, Investment, and Policy Issues, by Darius M. Adams 

and Gregory S. Latta

 4 Introduction

 6 Baseline Harvest Projections

 9 Age and Size of Harvested Wood

 10 Effects of Public Policies on Harvest Potential

 11 Discussion

 12 Metric Equivalents

 12 Literature Cited 

3. Will Markets Provide Sufficient Incentive for Sustainable Forest 

Management? by Richard Haynes

 13 Introduction

 17 Discussion

 18 Conclusion

 19 Literature Cited

4. A Preliminary Assessment of the Lumber Manufacturing Sector in 

Washington State, by John Perez-Garcia

 20 Introduction

 20 Existing Mill Surveys

 21 Number of Sawmills, Their Capacity and Log Use

 24 Future Demand for Timber

 24 Survey Development and Database Creation

 25 Metric Equivalents

 25 Literature Cited

SECTION B: SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

5. Land Use Changes That Impact Sustainable Forestry, by Ralph J. Alig

 28 Introduction

 28 Land Base Changes Over Time

 32 Projections

 32 Implications for Sustainable Forestry Options

 33 Acknowledgments

 33 Metric Equivalents 

 33 Literature Cited
6. Research Methods to Address the Economics of Forest Habitat 

Fragmentation, by David J. Lewis and Andrew J. Plantinga

 36 Introduction

 37 Research Methods

 39 Application to the Pacific Northwest Region

 39 Conclusions

 40 Acknowledgments

 40 English Equivalents

 41 References

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

7. Seeing the Forest for the Trees: Visual Resources Research in the 

Capitol State Forest, by Gordon Bradley, Anne Kearney, and Seth M. White 

 44 Introduction

 44 The Capitol State Forest Study

 45 Concluding Remarks

 45 Acknowledgments

 45 Literature Cited

8. A Proposal for Evaluating Alternative Approaches to Implementing 

Sustainable Forestry Practices in Western Oregon, by Claire A. Montgomery

 47 Introduction

 48 Older Forest Structure

 49 Previous Studies

 50 Implementing Older Forest Structure Management

 51 Concluding Remarks

 51 English Equivalents

 51 Literature Cited

9. A Sustainable Solution for Riparian Management, by Kevin W. Zobrist, 

Kevin R. Gehringer, and Bruce R. Lippke

 54 Introduction

 54 Importance of Alternative Plan Templates

 56 Overstocked Stand Example for Western Washington

 60 Conclusions

 61 Metric Equivalents

 61 Literature Cited

10. Wood-Plastic Composite Extrusion Technology for Sustainable 

Economic Development of Local Communities, by Vikram Yadama and 

Steve Shook

 63 Introduction

 63 Raw Materials, Processing, and Performance of Wood-Plastic Composites

 64 Wood-Plastic Composite Markets

 65 Proposed Study

 65 Approach

 66 Workshops to Disseminate Information

 66 Conclusion

 66 Equivalents

 66 Literature Cited
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

1

S

USTAINABLE FORESTRY, SUSTAINABLE WOOD 

production, and sustainability in general are major 

concerns of forest managers in the Pacific Northwest 

(PNW) and at the national and international levels (Aplet et 

al. 1993, Bruntland 1987, Floyd 2002, Maser 1994, Oliver 

2003). Sustainability is difficult to define; it means different 

things to different people. In the words of Floyd (2002), 

defining sustainability is “like trying to define justice or 

democracy. There are many definitions and some consensus, 

but agreement over the specifics is elusive.” Sustainability 

is a value-laden concept, but most people agree that the 

term generally includes economic, ecological, and social 

components. The World Commission (Bruntland 1987) has 

broadly defined sustainability as “development that meets 

needs of the present without compromising the ability of 

future generations to meet their own needs.” Sustainable

forestry is a little more specific. A useful definition by 

the Society of American Foresters (Helms 1998) is “the 

capacity of forests, ranging from stands to ecoregions, to 

maintain their health, productivity, diversity, and overall 

integrity, in the long run, in the context of human activity 

and use.” Here, we further define sustainable wood production as the capacity of forests to produce wood, products, 

and services on a long-term basis, and in the context of 

human activity and use. Sustainable forestry is related to 

but different from sustained yield—the amount of wood 

that a forest can produce continually. Sustained growth 

and yield are important, but as the following papers will 

illustrate, the barriers and opportunities related to sustainable wood production in the PNW have more to do with 

future markets, harvest potential, land use changes, and 

sustainable forestry options than with traditional growth 

and yield outputs. 

The PNW is one of the world’s major timber producing 

regions, and the regional capacity to produce wood on a 

sustained-yield basis is widely recognized. Issues relating 

to the ecological, social, and economic frameworks of sustainable forestry, however, will play a major role in future 

wood production of the region. As the PNW is one of the 

principal timber producing regions in the United States, 

1. SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION: 

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST?

Robert L. Deal and Seth M. White

there has been public interest in assuring that forests are 

being sustainably managed as well as a desire by landowners and forest managers to demonstrate their commitment 

to responsible stewardship. 

To address concerns about sustainable forestry in the 

region, the PNW Research Station is sponsoring a 3-year 

Sustainable Wood Production Initiative (SWPI). To identify 

and understand important issues for sustainable wood 

production, we conducted a series of client meetings and 

invited a wide array of forest landowners and managers 

representing forest industry, small private forests, state 

forestry, and others interested in growing and producing 

wood. The most pressing need mentioned by almost all 

forest landowners and managers was the need to identify 

and understand barriers to sustainable forestry. Our focus 

groups identified six major topics as priorities. These topics 

and the associated objectives of the SWPI are: 

• Identify and understand the major economic, ecological, and social issues relating to wood production in 

the PNW in the broad context of sustainable forestry. 

• Identify barriers to sustainable forestry and assess 

the impacts of market incentives and environmental 

regulations on sustainable forest management.

• Develop a regional assessment of resource trends and 

market conditions including the long-term economic 

viability of forestry in the region.

• Identify and assess niche market opportunities for 

small woodland owners in the PNW.

• Identify emerging technologies for wood products and 

summarize and synthesize new and existing information on wood technology.

• Develop a comprehensive communication strategy 

for reporting findings to a broad client base of land 

managers, researchers, and the general public. 

We have divided the following papers into three broad 

categories including sustainable wood production, sustainable land use, and sustainable forestry options. Chapters 2 

through 4 address sustainable wood production in the PNW 

and include future timber resources and harvest potential, 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

2

the role of markets, and an assessment of the associated 

lumber manufacturing sector. In chapter 2, Adams and 

Latta broadly assess the timber resource and discuss harvest 

potential of several forest policy alternatives. In chapter 3, 

Haynes discusses the role that market prices have in forest 

management decisions and the potential impact of markets 

on sustainable forest management. In chapter 4, PerezGarcia assesses trends in both lumber manufacturing and 

regional milling capacity. 

Chapters 5 and 6 discuss land use changes and the overall 

effects of forest fragmentation on different forest resources. 

In chapter 5, Alig broadly assesses land use changes in the 

PNW and potential impacts of population growth and land 

use change on sustainable forestry. In chapter 6, Lewis 

and Plantinga assess some of the potential effects of forest 

fragmentation on wildlife and other resources. 

The last four chapters include a broad range of forestry 

options relating to sustainable wood production. In chapter 

7, Bradley et al. evaluate public perceptions of forest practices based on visual preferences and discuss some of the 

implications of these preferences on sustainable forestry. 

In chapter 8, Montgomery provides an overview of work 

to assess alternative costs for developing late-successional 

forest habitat and how the public might consider paying for 

these costs. In chapter 9, Zobrist et al. present a solution 

for addressing riparian zone management issues by using 

forest structure and economic criteria to create riparian 

management templates. And in the last chapter, Yadama and 

Shook examine the use of small-diameter trees combined 

with plastics as an emerging technology with potential for 

sustained economic development of local communities.

We realize that our three divisions within this report 

are arbitrary—each of the papers in its own way addresses 

one or more concerns related to the broad categories of 

sustainable wood production, sustainable land use, and 

sustainable forestry options. We hope that our attempt 

to organize the papers into a logical framework does not 

de-emphasize the important concept that these categories 

are in fact interrelated. Sustainable wood production in 

the PNW will most likely need to include careful planning 

for sustainable land use and various sustainable forestry 

options to ensure future forest resources to meet market 

demands.

LITERATURE CITED

Aplet, G.H.; Johnson, N.; Olson, J.T.; Sample, V.A. 

1993. Defining sustainable forestry. Washington, DC: 

The Wilderness Society. 328 p.

Bruntland, G.H. 1987. Our common future: the world 

commission on environment and development. 

Oxford: Oxford University Press. 400 p.

Floyd, D.W. 2002. Forest sustainability: the history, the 

challenge, the promise. Durham, NC: Forest History 

Society. 80 p.

Helms, J.A., ed. 1998. The dictionary of forestry. 

Bethesda, MD: Society of American Foresters. 

210 p.

Maser, C. 1994. Sustainable forestry: philosophy, 

science, and economics. Delray Beach, FL: St. 

Lucie Press. 373 p.

Oliver, C.D. 2003. Sustainable forestry: What is 

it? How do we achieve it? Journal of Forestry. 

101(5): 8–14.
Section A: 

Sustainable Markets

Bob Deal, USDA Forest Service
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

4

2. TIMBER HARVEST POTENTIAL FROM PRIVATE

LANDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST: 

BIOLOGICAL, INVESTMENT, AND POLICY ISSUES

Darius M. Adams and Gregory S. Latta1

1

 Professor and faculty research assistant, respectively, Department 

of Forest Resources, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331. 

Address correspondence to darius.adams@oregonstate.edu. 

ABSTRACT

This paper synthesizes information from four half-state 

studies and the fifth Resources Planning Act Timber Assessment to develop a broad assessment of Pacific Northwest 

(PNW) timber harvest potential. Our review suggests that 

private lands in the PNW should be able to maintain or 

exceed recent historical harvest levels over the next 50 or 

more years given unchanged policies and anticipated levels 

of private management investment. These results could be 

realized with stable to rising inventories and nearly stable 

real prices. Concentration of lands in younger age and size 

classes will continue in some cases for industrial owners 

and to a lesser extent on nonindustrial private forest lands. 

Shifts toward more intensive management will be gradual 

and relatively limited and have a modest impact on harvest 

over the next 50 years. New policies that act to reduce the 

operable land base of private owners should lead to roughly 

proportional reductions in private timber harvest. Withdrawals that focus on larger and older stands will have a 

much larger proportional near-term effect, given the general 

dearth of older timber in the private forest land base.

INTRODUCTION 

CONTROVERSIES OVER TIMBER HARVEST LIE 

at the core of the current discussion of sustainable 

forestry in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Efforts 

to sustain the levels of nontimber forest outputs will, in 

most cases, lead to reductions in timber harvest. With the 

near elimination of harvest on federal lands in the 1990s, 

private ownerships have become the mainstay of the region’s 

future timber supply potential. Absent some major shift in 

federal land management policies, the region’s future timber 

output will depend heavily on the growth potential of these 

private lands, the management decisions of private owners, 

2

 Adams et al. (1992) for western Washington, Bare et al. (1995) 

for eastern Washington, Adams et al. (2002) for western Oregon 

(see also Schillinger et al. 2003), and Adams and Latta (2003) 

for eastern Oregon. 

and the regulatory restrictions placed on private actions by 

the state. This paper reviews recent studies to:

• Develop a view of what future private timber supply 

potential in the PNW might be, and 

• Examine how certain types of public policies might 

affect that potential. 

We consider four studies of Oregon and Washington by 

half-state2

 and results of the USDA Forest Service’s fifth 

Resources Planning Act (RPA) timber assessment (Haynes 

2003). The initial portion of this review summarizes 

some key measures of the current conditions of private 

timberlands in the region. We then outline projections of 

harvest, inventory, management investment, and age and 

size conditions of the future resource under the “base case” 

conditions of each of the studies. Public policy impacts are 

examined through comparative simulations of the effects 

of land base withdrawals.

Current Resource Conditions

To assess the future timber supply potential in the PNW, 

it is useful to begin with a consideration of the current 

conditions of the region’s private forest resources. Current 

inventory data are drawn from Azuma et al. (2004a, 2004b) 

for western and eastern Oregon, MacLean et al. (1992) for 

western Washington, and McKay et al. (1995) for eastern 

Washington. At this writing (October 2003), we do not 

have an updated Washington inventory. As a result, there 

is about an 8-year gap between the latest Washington 

data (roughly 1990) and the latest Oregon data (roughly 

1998). Despite the time lag, comparisons are still roughly 

indicative of current conditions and differences between 

the two regions. In describing current resource conditions 

we consider changes in the timberland base, trends in 

timber inventory, distributions of area by age class, and 

the intensity of timber management.
5

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0–19 20–39 40–59 60–79 80–99 100+

Age class in years

Land area (percent) 

Forest industry

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Land area (percent)

Forest industry Western Washington

Nonindustrial private

Nonindustrial private

0–19 20–39 40–59 60–79 80–99 100+

Age class in years

Western Oregon

Changes in the timberland base are a fundamental 

resource concern in assessing future harvest potential. For the PNW as a whole (fig. 2.1A), the private 

land base has declined over the past 50 years by nearly 

4 million acres, owing primarily to a steady drop in nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) holdings (Smith et al. 2001). 

In the most recent decade shown in figure 2.1A, the total 

private sector loss has slowed to about 700,000 acres, but 

this is still a sizable decline. Losses in the NIPF group have 

occurred both on the west side and east side, although 

the largest reductions have been in western Washington 

and in the Puget Sound region in particular (MacLean 

et al. 1992).3

Trends in timber inventory are another way of looking 

at the ratio of growth to harvest—one of the key measures 

of the sustainability of forests by most definitions. As shown 

in figure 2.1B, there has been a long-term declining trend 

in growing-stock inventory on industrial forest lands. The 

NIPF inventory, in contrast, has grown in recent years, despite record harvests in the 1980s and 1990s, as large areas 

of young stands move into the ages of most rapid growth.

Age class distributions for forests managed on an evenage basis provide some insights into both past harvesting 

patterns and future harvest potential. Distributions for the 

west-side subregions by owner type are shown in figure 2.2. 

Relations between industry and NIPF in these charts are 

similar for half-states (east side or west side of the state). 

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Timberland (million acres)

Nonindustrial private

Forest industry

Total private

A

Year

Figure 2.1—Private timberland area (A) and growing-stock 

inventory (B) in the Pacific Northwest (from Smith et al. 2001).

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Growing stock 

(billion cubic feet)

Nonindustrial private

Forest industry

All private

B

Year

3

 PNW west side is known as the Douglas-fir region of western Oregon 

and Washington, and PNW east side is known as the ponderosa pine 

region of eastern Oregon and Washington.

Private lands in the Pacific Northwest should be able to maintain 

or exceed recent historical harvest levels over the next 50 or more 

years given unchanged policies and levels of private management 

investment. (Photo by Bob Deal, USDA Forest Service.)

Figure 2.2—Age class distributions as a proportion of land area 

for private owners in western Oregon and Washington (from Adams 

et al. 1992, Adams et al. 2002). 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

6

Industry lands have about 90 percent of their area in stands 

less than 60 years old, whereas NIPF lands have about 75 

percent of their area in stands of similar ages. Increases in 

the younger classes on industry lands indicate an increase 

in harvested area in recent years. If stands are presently 

being cut primarily in the 40-to-59-year age group, these 

distributions suggest that industry lands will have an increasing supply of stands reaching this age group over the 

next 20 years. The NIPF ownerships, in contrast, will see 

a decline in area advancing into this age group.

For forests managed by selection or partial cutting, diameter class distributions provide a better picture of current 

structure and future harvest potential. Figure 2.3 shows the 

fraction of total volume by 2-inch diameter classes for private 

owners on the east side. The structures are quite similar 

between the two states, with the modal classes roughly 

between 13 and 15 inches in both cases. From the more 

detailed ownership data available for eastern Oregon, we 

see that industrial lands appear to have greater proportions 

of their land in smaller classes, whereas NIPF lands retain 

most of the largest timber. Annual removals have taken on 

average 6.5 percent of eastern Oregon industrial inventory 

each year, and NIPF cut has averaged about 2.5 percent of 

inventory (measured as growing-stock volume).

A final aspect of the current state of private forest resources is the way in which they are managed—the level 

of management input or investment. Lands managed more 

intensively for timber should have higher growth and yields 

at comparable ages than less intensively managed lands. 

Figure 2.4 shows estimates of private land area on the west 

side by management intensity regimes (see Haynes et al. 

2003). A much larger fraction of industry land is enrolled in 

the most intensive regimes, whereas more than 80 percent 

of NIPF land is managed with attention to regeneration 

only. Figure 2.5 shows management intensity distributions 

on the east side from two studies (Adams and Latta 2003, 

Bare et al. 1995) that use low-, medium-, and high-intensity 

classifications of even- and uneven-age regimes. In eastern 

Washington, although industry owners do have some land 

in the more intensive forms, the largest fractions in both 

types of regime are allocated to the lowest intensity for 

both ownerships—a contrast with the west-side results. In 

eastern Oregon, industry ownerships have higher fractions 

in the more intensive classifications.

Figure 2.3—Size class distributions (fraction of inventory volume by 

class) for private owners in eastern Oregon and Washington (from 

Adams and Latta 2003, Bare et al. 1995).

5.0–6.9

7.0–8.9

9.0–10.9

11.0–12.9

29+

Diameter class (inches)

Fraction of total growingstock inventory volume

Nonindustrial private

Eastern Oregon

All private

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0

Fraction of growing-stock 

inventory volume

Eastern Washington

All private

Forest industry

13.0–14.9

15.0–16.9

17.0–18.9

19.0–20.9

21.0–22.9

23.0–24.9

25.0–26.9

27.0–28.9

Diameter class (inches)

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0

5.0–6.9

7.0–8.9

9.0–10.9

11.0–12.9

29+

13.0–14.9

15.0–16.9

17.0–18.9

19.0–20.9

21.0–22.9

23.0–24.9

25.0–26.9

27.0–28.9

BASELINE HARVEST PROJECTIONS

We are fortunate at this juncture to have four relatively 

recent studies that have examined the timber harvest 

potential of private lands in the PNW at the half-state 

level (see footnote 2 for citations) and the Forest Service’s 

fifth RPA timber assessment (Haynes 2003) that provides 

projections for the west side and east side. Although there 

are some differences in projection methods among these 

studies, these differences are not so great as to preclude a 

useful comparison. Results are shown in figures 2.6A–2.6C 

(solid lines) and in figure 2.7.

Harvest Volumes

Reviewing the half-state projections reveals that all but 

one of the subregion-owner combinations appear able to 

sustain harvests at recent historical levels for at least the 

next 50 years. In many cases, the projected harvests are 
7

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

Figure 2.4—Distribution of private land area in western Oregon 

and Washington by management intensity regimes circa late 1990s 

(Haynes et al. 2003). Non-G is nongenetically improved planting 

stock; CT is commercial thin; other indicates other treatments also 

possibly included.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Management intensity regimes

Land area (percent)

Forest industry

Nonindustrial private

Non-G 

regeneration 

only

Non-G 

regeneration 

+ CT 

+ other

Non-G 

regeneration 

+ other

(non-CT)

Partial cut Genetic 

regeneration 

+ other

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

EHIGH EMED ELOW UHIGH UMED ULOW

Management intensity class

Land area (percent)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Land area (percent)

Forest industry

Nonindustrial private

Forest industry

Nonindustrial private

EHIGH EMED ELOW UHIGH UMED ULOW

Management intensity class

Eastern Oregon

Eastern Washington

Figure 2.5—Distribution of private timberland by management 

intensity class in eastern Oregon and Washington. E = even-age 

management, U = uneven-age management, LOW, MED, and HIGH 

refer to degree of intensity (from Adams and Latta 2003, Bare et al. 

1995).

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Timber harvest 

(million cubic feet)

-15%

Nonindustrial private

-15%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Timber harvest 

(million board feet)

Nonindustrial private

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1950

19601970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

Timber harvest 

(million cubic feet)

A

Forest industry

Forest industry

Nonindustrial private

Forest industry

-15%

-15%

-25%

-24%

B

C

Year

Year

Year

Figure 2.6—Historical and projected softwood timber harvest 

on private lands in western Washington (A), eastern Washington 

(B), and western Oregon (C) from various studies (see text). Solid 

lines are projections for the base case; dashed lines are projections 

assuming area reductions (in percentage amounts shown on charts).
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

8

substantially higher than recent historical levels, matching or exceeding the 20-year historical average. In fact, in 

some cases the projected harvests are at or above historical 

peak levels. 

The one exception to this increasing harvest projection is 

the eastern Oregon industrial ownership. Industrial inventory has been declining in eastern Oregon for at least the 

past 20 years while harvest has been relatively stable and 

mortality rising. In the most recent inventory cycle (1988–

99), gross growth averaged 54 million cubic feet (MMCF) 

per year, mortality 11 MMCF per year, and removals 74 

MMCF per year for a net annual inventory reduction of some 

31 MMCF per year (Azuma et al. 2004b). Reflecting this 

long-term inventory reduction, projected eastern Oregon 

harvest drops to about half of the 40-year historical average 

(fig. 2.7). Recent projections for eastern Oregon by Sessions 

(1991) dropped well below those from an earlier study by 

Beuter et al. (1976), in part because of the inventory decline. 

The most recent study reported here (Adams and Latta 

2003) shows an additional 30-percent decrease below the 

projections reported by Sessions (1991).

Effects of more intensive management—

Assumptions about increasingly intensive management 

are likely to be important in achieving the “base case” results 

reported for the west-side studies. The eastern Washington 

study does not allow changes in management intensity 

classes (MICs) over the projection, whereas the eastern 

Oregon study shows shifts toward less intensive MICs for 

even-aged stands. Both the western Washington and Oregon studies do assume shifts in management from lesser 

to more intensive forms on both ownerships. These shifts 

are fairly substantial in the western Washington industry 

case but less so for western Oregon industry. The western 

Washington study offers some insights into the impacts 

of its MIC shift assumptions through a sensitivity test in 

which no MIC shifting is allowed on industry lands. Harvest levels are virtually unchanged during the first 25 years 

and only about 7 percent lower by the 50th year. Because 

the largest growth gains from more intensive management 

are likely to come through changes in planting stock, early 

stand density control, and fertilization early in a stand’s 

life, this relatively small gain by the 50th year (roughly 

one rotation) is not surprising. Most of the harvest volume 

over the first 50 years of the projection will come from 

stands already established, with limited opportunities for 

accelerating growth.

Age/size distributions—

Maintaining the harvest levels shown in figures 2.6A–

2.6C also entails a further concentration of stands in the 

younger and smaller age/size groups in most subregions and 

ownerships. We can infer that average stand size is declining in the two east-side areas studied given the declining 

trends in the quadratic mean diameter (QMD) of the timber 

harvested (see discussion below) and because harvests in 

both studies are restricted to trees larger than 9 inches. In 

the western Washington study in about the 50th year of the 

projection, inventories have roughly equal area in each age 

class from new regeneration up to 40 or 50 years of age and 

with no volume in older classes (an extreme result of the 

projection method). The western Oregon study, in contrast, 

shows limited change in the age structures for both owners. 

Industry lands are already heavily concentrated in younger 

classes (the percentage of area in stands less than 60 years 

rises from 90 to 92 percent). For NIPF lands, the widespread 

adoption of partial cutting allows an expansion in areas for 

stands greater than 60 years because of the older residual 

trees in the partially cut stands.

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Timber harvest 

(million board feet)

-11%

Forest industry

Nonindustrial private

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Timber harvest 

(million board feet)

-18%

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Year

Year

Figure 2.7—Historical and projected softwood timber harvest on 

private lands in eastern Oregon (projections from Adams and Latta 

2003). Solid lines are projections for the base case; dashed lines 

are projections assuming 11 percent and 18 percent reductions in 

timberland bases for industrial and NIPF owners, respectively. 
9

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

AGE AND SIZE OF 

HARVESTED WOOD

In all of the studies, the average age and size of timber 

harvested decline over the projection. On the west side, 

average clearcut harvest age is 60+ years in the initial 

projection period, but by 30 years into the projection, 

clearcut harvest age is reduced to only 40 to 50 years. In 

the western Oregon industry case, this transition happens 

very quickly as there is little volume at ages greater than 

50 years. In eastern Washington, the QMD of harvested 

timber for all private owners falls from a 15- to 21-inch 

range to an 11- to 17-inch range after the 50th projection 

year. In eastern Oregon, harvest QMD rises from 10 to 13 

inches to 12 to 14 inches as a result of lower harvests and 

rising inventories.

Growing-Stock Inventories

With the exception of the sequential look-ahead analysis4

in western Washington, all of the studies show stable or 

rising inventories for their respective regions and owners, 

hence a rough balance of growth and harvest. In the western 

Washington case, the sequential even-flow approach that 

was used leads to inventories that decline at decreasing 

rates and approach some steady state in the long term. It 

is likely, however, that a strict even-flow projection would 

also yield stable to rising inventories as found in other 

regions, but we are unable to say because inventories were 

not reported for this case.

Timber assessment projections—

Further analysis of timber harvest projections of private 

lands in the PNW can be derived from the Forest Service’s 

fifth RPA timber assessment (Haynes 2003). The underlying model here is an economic representation of national 

product and regional log markets over time, not a volume 

4

 In a harvest scheduling problem, the planning period is divided into 

some number of basic time intervals (e.g., a 100-year planning period 

may comprise twenty 5-year time intervals). The model that computes 

the schedule projects the harvest and inventory from one basic time 

interval to the next. Strict even flow is the highest uniform harvest 

volume that can be maintained over some planning period with no 

variations above or below this level in any time interval. In sequential 

even flow, a “look-ahead” period is defined as some number of time 

intervals (but smaller than the planning period). The strict even flow 

is computed for the first look-ahead period starting in the first time 

interval. This harvest is taken only in the first time interval of the lookahead period and the inventory projected to the next time interval. The 

strict even flow is again calculated for look-ahead period, and again the 

cut is taken only for the first time interval in the look-ahead period. 

The process continues in this sequential fashion until the harvest for 

the last time interval in the planning period is computed.

Nonindustrial private

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Growing-stock removals 

(million cubic feet)

Forest industry

Pacific Northwest west

Nonindustrial private

200

150

100

50

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Growing-stock removals 

(million cubic feet)

Forest industry

Pacific Northwest east

Figure 2.8. Projected private softwood growing-stock removals 

for Pacific Northwest west and east from the fifth RPA timber 

assessment (Haynes 2003).

flow analysis. Thus, it provides information on prices as 

well as harvest and inventories. Its harvest patterns will 

not follow the typical even or sequential flow trajectories 

but move with fluctuations in prices and inventory.

Harvest projections from the RPA timber assessment 

shown in figure 2.8 are generally consistent with the halfstate studies just reviewed. The NIPF owners on both the 

west side and east side have some potential for increasing 

harvest. East-side industry harvest is a mix of declining 

cut in eastern Oregon and potential for stable to increasing 

harvest in eastern Washington. West-side industrial harvest 

shows no major rising or falling trends, again consistent 

with the potentials portrayed in the half-state studies. 

The stable to rising inventory trends in figure 2.9 are also 

broadly consistent with what we’ve discussed in the halfstate studies. Note that even with rising cut on NIPF lands, 

inventories continue to grow until some 40 years into the 

projections. The PNW real or deflated stumpage prices are 

shown in figure 2.10 together with those in key competing U.S. regions. Prices for west-side PNW are essentially 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

10

Nonindustrial private

Forest industry

Pacific Northwest west

25

20

15

10

5

0

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

Growing-stock inventory 

(billion cubic feet)

1970

1980

1990

Nonindustrial 

private

Forest industry

Pacific Northwest east

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

Growing-stock inventory 

(billion cubic feet)

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

Figure 2.9—Historical and projected private softwood growing-stock 

inventory for Pacific Northwest west and east from the fifth RPA 

timber assessment (Haynes 2003).

stable until late in the projection. Prices for east-side PNW 

(combined in the interior West category) rise slowly over 

the next two decades, then stabilize.5

EFFECTS OF PUBLIC POLICIES 

ON HARVEST POTENTIAL

There are many public policies and regulations that influence the harvesting and management decisions of private 

forest landowners. To provide a limited demonstration of 

how sensitive the foregoing harvest projections might be 

to changes in public policies, we examine a hypothetical 

case where the policy acts to reduce the operable land 

base. Such an effect might be realized, for example, when 

management is restricted in riparian zones, sensitive habitat 

areas, or sites with unstable soils and slopes—all recent 

concerns in the PNW. All the half-state studies include some 

type of land base reduction scenario, although the details 

differ by study. In the Oregon studies, lands within 

100 feet of all streams were assumed to be restricted 

from harvest entry, resulting in about a 25-percent reduction in the private timberland base. In the western 

Washington study, timberland area was reduced by 

500

400

300

200

100

0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Sawtimber stumpage price 

(1982$/MBF, Scribner rule)

South

Pacific Northwest West

Interior West

North

Figure 2.10—Historical and projected real softwood sawtimber stumpage prices for Pacific Northwest west, interior West (contains 

Pacific Northwest east), and other U.S. regions from the fifth RPA timber assessment (Haynes 2003). Prices are in 1982 dollars per 

thousand board feet, Scribner log rule.

5

 Both the western and eastern Oregon studies also include price 

projections as part of their market model analyses. These studies 

show essentially stable prices over the next 50 years, again roughly 

consistent with the RPA results.
11

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

15 percent with more than 60 percent of the set-aside 

acres coming from timber 70 years and older. The eastern 

Washington study removed 15 percent of timberland area 

proportionally from all forest types and zones. 

Results from the various studies are shown as the dashed 

lines in figures 2.6A–2.6C. In the western Washington case 

(fig. 2.6A), the average harvest reduction over the projection 

for industrial owners nearly matches the area set aside, with 

17 and 15 percent reductions, respectively. Initially, this 

decline in harvest is far larger for industrial landowners 

because the withdrawals are concentrated in older timber 

that is scarce in the industrial base. Immediate loss of this 

timber leads to an exaggerated harvest response. We note 

that an analysis of the imposition of minimum harvest ages 

in the western Oregon study (Adams et al. 2002) produced 

similar results for the same reasons.6

 Harvest impacts on 

western Washington NIPF owners average only about half 

of the area lost, roughly 8 percent reduction, as they have 

far larger areas of older timber. In both cases, impacts 

decline with time. This latter result is due largely to the 

harvest projection method that allows greater reductions 

in the inventory in later periods.

In eastern Washington (fig. 2.6B), again the percentage 

reduction in industrial harvest is close to the proportion 

of area removed, with 16 and 15 percent reductions, respectively. Reserved land is drawn proportionally from all 

age and size classes, so for industrial land the pattern of 

harvest reductions is roughly uniform over time with no 

large initial change (as in the western Washington case). 

The NIPF harvest averages 9 percent reduction in this case, 

again lower than the proportion of land base lost. This 

result, as Bare et al. (1995: 137–138) note, was owing to 

a relaxation in the harvest flow constraints to render the 

solution feasible. Otherwise we would expect a harvest 

reduction roughly proportional to the area loss.

In both western and eastern Oregon studies, harvest 

reductions are very nearly proportional to area reductions, 

even though the land lost is concentrated in streamside 

zones. In western Oregon, industrial and NIPF land areas 

fall by 25 percent and 24 percent, respectively, while average harvests fall by 24 percent and 25 percent. In eastern 

Oregon, industrial area loss is about 11 percent and harvest 

declines by about 12 percent, while NIPF area falls by 

18 percent and cut by 19 percent. This suggests that the 

current age and size distributions of lands in the riparian 

zones are roughly representative of the inventories of these 

owners as a whole. If, in contrast, they were to contain 

disproportionate volumes of larger and older timber, we 

would have expected larger near-term harvest reductions 

similar to the western Washington study.

DISCUSSION

Viewed broadly, the foregoing review suggests that private 

lands in the PNW, and its half-state subdivisions, should 

be able to sustain at least recent historical harvest levels 

over the next 50 or more years given unchanged policies 

and the anticipated levels of private management investment. The historical declining trend in industrial harvest 

on the west side could be arrested, and the potential for 

continued growth in NIPF harvest in all regions is great. 

Furthermore, these trends could be realized with stable 

to rising inventories—growth would be at least as large as 

harvest. Accompanying such a trend, we can expect continued concentration of industrial lands in younger age and 

smaller size classes and a continued decline in the average 

age and size of timber harvested. This will be less true on 

NIPF lands and is expected only to a modest extent in the 

western Oregon subregion. Part of the ability of private 

lands on the west side to sustain harvests derives from an 

expectation of further intensification of management with 

increased reliance on planting rather than natural regeneration, early stocking control, application of fertilizer, and 

to a lesser extent, the use of commercial thinning. These 

studies suggest, however, that shifts toward more intensive 

management regimes will be gradual, relatively limited, and 

have a relatively minor impact on harvest potential over 

the next 50 years. We do not anticipate a wave of intensive 

forest plantations with genetically modified trees managed 

on short rotations. Also, based on information from the 

Forest Service’s fifth RPA timber assessment, we expect 

that all this might transpire in a market with relatively 

stable timber prices.

Finally, the collected simulations suggest that 

new or revised policies that act to reduce the operable land 

base of private owners should lead to roughly proportional 

reductions in private timber harvest. This would be true 

so long as the land losses were distributed proportionally 

across forest types, age classes, and site qualities in the 

ownerships. In Oregon, at least, this would also be true 

6

 A minimum harvest age, as the name implies, is a lower bound 

on the age at which a stand can be harvested. Stands below this age 

would be ineligible for harvest. Increasing the minimum age renders 

more and more of the inventory inaccessible for harvest.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

12

even if the losses were concentrated in riparian zones alone. 

And in all regions, withdrawals that focus on the larger and 

older stands will almost surely have a much larger than 

proportional near-term impact, given the general dearth 

of older timber in the private forest base.

METRIC EQUIVALENTS

When you know: Multiply by: To find:

Acres 0.405 Hectares

Inches 2.54 Centimeters

Feet .3048 Meters

Million cubic feet .028 Million cubic meters

LITERATURE CITED

Adams, D.M.; Alig, R.J.; Anderson, D.J.; Stevens, J.A.; 

Chmelik, J.T. 1992. Future prospects for western 

Washington’s timber supply. Contribution Number 

74. Seattle, WA: University of Washington, College of 

Forest Resources, Institute of Forest Resources. 201 p.

Adams, D.M.; Latta, G. 2003. Private timber harvest 

in eastern Oregon. Research Contribution 42. 

Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University, Forest 

Research Laboratory. 29 p.

Adams, D.M.; Schillinger, R.S.; Latta, G.; Van Nalts, A. 

2002. Timber harvest projections for private land in 

western Oregon. Research Contribution 37. Corvallis, 

OR: Oregon State University, Forest Research 

Laboratory. 44 p.

Azuma, D.L.; Bednar, L.F.; Hiserote, B.A.; Veneklase, 

C.F. 2004a. Timber resources statistics for western 

Oregon, 1997. Rev. Resour. Bull. PNW-RB-237. 

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 120 p.

Azuma, D.L.; Dunham, P.A.; Hiserote, B.A.; 

Veneklase, C.F. 2004b. Timber resources statistics for 

eastern Oregon, 1999. Rev. Resour. Bull. PNWRB-238. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 42 p.

Bare, B.B.; Lippke, B.R.; Oliver, C.D.; Zens, S. 1995.

Eastern Washington timber supply analysis. Spec. 

Pap. 18. Seattle, WA: University of Washington, 

College of Forest Resources, Center for International 

Trade in Forest Products. 201 p.

Beuter, J.H.; Johnson, K.N.; Scheurman, H.L. 1976.

Timber for Oregon’s tomorrow: an analysis of 

reasonably possible occurrences. Res. Bull. 19. 

Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University, Forest 

Research Laboratory. 119 p.

Haynes, R.W., tech. coord. 2003. An analysis of the 

timber situation in the United States: 1952–2050. 

Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-560. Portland, OR: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station. 254 p.

Haynes, R.W.; Adams, D.M.; Mills, J.R. 2003.

Contemporary management regimes in the Pacific 

Northwest: balancing biophysical and economic 

concerns. In: Monserud, R.A.; Haynes, R.W.; Johnson, 

A.C., eds. Compatible forest management. Dordrecht, 

The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers: 

267–296. Chapter 10.

MacLean, C.D.; Bassett, P.M.; Yeary, G. 1992. Timber 

resource statistics for western Washington. Resour. 

Bull. PNW-RB-191. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 135 p.

McKay, N.; Bassett, P.M.; MacLean, C.D. 1995. Timber 

resource statistics for eastern Washington. Resour. 

Bull. PNW-RB-201. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 47 p.

Schillinger, R.R.; Adams, D.M.; Latta, G.S.; Van Nalts, 

A.K. 2003. An analysis of future private timber supply 

potential in western Oregon. Western Journal of 

Applied Forestry. 18(3): 1–9.

Sessions, J., coord. 1991. Timber for Oregon’s 

tomorrow: the 1989 update. Rev. Corvallis, OR: 

Oregon State University, Forest Research Laboratory. 

184 p.

Smith, W.B.; Vissage, J.S.; Darr, D.R.; Sheffield, R.M. 

2001. Forest resources of the United States, 1997. 

Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-GTR-219. St. Paul, MN: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North 

Central Research Station. 190 p.
13

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

3. WILL MARKETS PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INCENTIVE

FOR SUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENT?

Richard Haynes1

ABSTRACT

The renewed interest in sustainable forestry raises questions about the role that market prices have in influencing 

management decisions made by individual landowners and 

managers. Evidence from the Douglas-fir region suggests 

that landowners and managers have relied on sustained 

upward changes in timber prices to provide incentives to 

increase the intensity and extent of timber management 

practices. But we face a future of relatively stable prices, 

and some advocates of more intensive forest management 

are concerned that expectations of lower returns for various 

forestry practices may lead landowners, each with their own 

objectives, to respond to various market signals in ways that 

are not supportive of sustainable forest management. 

INTRODUCTION

T HE UNITED STATES AND CANADA ARE 

signatories to the Montreal Process for Sustainable 

Forest Management, which is one of several frameworks that seek to balance environmental, economic, and 

equity considerations of forest management from a societal 

viewpoint (Mihajlovich 2001, Tittler et al. 2001). These 

frameworks generally attempt to place the debate about 

sustainable forest management in the context of broader 

societal goals for sustainable growth (Mendoza and Prabhu 

2000).

The various frameworks for assessing sustainable forest 

management assume that each country will develop national 

implementation programs. In the United States, however, 

this has not happened because most (71 percent) U.S. 

timberland is privately owned and there is little consensus 

among landowners about the need for or the content of 

such an implementation program. Here implementation 

will instead be determined by numerous management decisions made by individual landowners and managers. These 

decisions will be influenced by a mix of market incentives 

1

 Richard Haynes is a research forester, U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 

Forestry Sciences Laboratory, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208.

2

 Value of standing timber, most often estimated based on the value of 

timber harvested during a specified period.

and regulatory actions. The variability in these decisions 

introduces uncertainty in assessing progress toward sustainable forest management. This is especially the case where 

prices might provide insufficient incentive for what some 

proponents of sustainable forest management believe are 

necessary forest practices. 

The purpose of this paper is to explore the evidence 

for the concerns that markets might not provide sufficient 

incentive for sustainable forest management. I assume that 

an operational definition of sustainable forest management 

includes, among other attributes, management actions to 

ensure that timber growth equals or exceeds harvest and 

that inventories are stable or rising.

Another way to state this purpose is to consider at what 

point weak timber prices would become a barrier to making progress toward sustainable forest management. The 

experience in the Douglas-fir region of the Pacific Northwest 

(west side) will be used to set context for the issue. This is 

a region where, starting in the 1930s, advocates for managing timberlands argued for sustained yield management 

(which they saw as restricting possible harvest levels) on 

public timberlands as a means to increase stumpage prices2

to a level that would provide incentives for more intensive 

forest management or more timber production on private 

timberlands (Mason 1969). It is also a region whose history demonstrates the power of markets in altering forest 

resource conditions and the processing sector.

The Douglas-Fir Region

Current forest conditions in the Douglas-fir region are 

a function of both markets for various forest products and 

various regulatory actions (past and current). This area is 

one of the major timber-producing regions in the world 

and is recognized for its productive timberlands, forest 

management institutions, well-organized markets, and 

large-scale timber processing industries. The stumpage 

price series shown in figure 3.1 is often used to illustrate 

changes in forest products markets and recently as an 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

14

shifts took place in the economy; there was rapid inflation 

in commodity prices and then a severe recession in the 

early 1980s. In the 1990s, the reductions in federal timber 

harvest, loss of both lumber and manufacturing productive capacity, and the reductions in exports following the 

economic slowdown in Asian countries acted to reduce 

stumpage prices.

Conversely, the increasing diversity in the mix of forest 

products had an upward effect on stumpage prices (see 

Haynes 1980). Stumpage owners benefited (in higher prices 

and returns from forest management activities) from the 

strong role that diverse and highly competitive producers in the Pacific Northwest played in both domestic and 

export markets.

In spite of these sometimes contrary changes, rising 

stumpage prices induced landowners and managers to 

apply forest management regimes leading to improved 

stand conditions such as higher stocking levels of selected 

species, greater uniformity of trees, etc. In addition, during 

the last two decades, the growing value of nontimber forest 

products has been recognized, and some landowners have 

modified management regimes to take advantage of joint 

production opportunities (Alexander and McLain 2001, 

Kerns et al. 2003).

Figure 3.2 shows both the post-World War II and the 

expected future situations. The projections of regional 

softwood stumpage prices are from An Analysis of the Timber 

Situation in the United States: 1952–2050 (called hereafter 

the fifth RPA [Resources Planning Act] timber assessment) 

(Haynes 2003). Overall, the rate of stumpage price growth 

is expected to slow to 0.6 percent over the next 50 years. 

A higher rate of increase is expected in the near term as 

we transition from existing stands to more intensively 

managed timberlands. Once this shift is complete (say 

after 2020 in both the Douglas-fir region and the South), 

little growth in stumpage prices is expected, and prices in 

the Pacific Northwest will remain at or below those in the 

South until after 2040.

Another factor influencing the lower rate of increase in 

stumpage prices and changing land management objectives is the changing mix of forest products. Figure 3.3 

shows the historical and projected proportions of harvest, 

by product, from the fifth RPA timber assessment (Haynes 

2003). The projections show the mix of log markets in the 

Douglas-fir region returning to less diverse conditions similar to those of the 1950s and 1960s. Options may persist 

for some utilization in panels and other products, and log 3

 The actual rate of increase in real prices between 1910 and 

2002 was 2.97 percent per year.

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 Stumpage price index

(1992=100)

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Figure 3.1—Oregon and Washington stumpage price index, 

1909–2002.

inducement for those considering investing in timberland. 

It shows changing stumpage prices that reflect changes 

in the available resources, the processing sector, and end 

product markets. Figure 3.1 reveals periods of stability as 

well as periods of growth and volatility. It provides evidence 

of the returns landowners have seen from investments in 

forest management. In the case of the Douglas-fir region, 

real (net of inflation) prices have increased roughly 3 percent per year3

 since the early 1900s. The general history 

of rising prices suggests that timber is relatively scarce 

and that changes in various market factors may alleviate 

the price increases. This behavior is expected, as these are 

relatively free markets comprising numerous producers and 

consumers making decisions based on understanding of 

available information. Rising prices should encourage consumers to substitute nonwood material in some uses such 

as residential construction (e.g., steel studs for framing) 

because the real prices of the substitute are less than wood 

prices. Rising prices should also encourage landowners 

and managers to increase the intensity or extent of land 

management to produce more timber (to the point where 

timber prices become stable). 

Events have influenced timber prices (shown in fig. 3.1) 

and shaped the perceptions of land managers. For example, 

before World War II, efforts to limit harvests from public 

timberlands resulted in relatively stable prices. The elimination of World War II price controls, rapid economic adjustment, and expansion in demand led to increases in prices 

following World War II. By the late 1950s, the increases 

in public harvests and slowdowns in economic growth 

limited the growth in stumpage prices. In the next three 

decades, however, prices were highly volatile as harvest 

levels increased, available timber declined, and structural 
15

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

exports, but softwood lumber output accounts for a rising 

share of log production and use—reaching 70 percent of 

the total by 2050. Softwood harvest volumes (table 3.1) 

may rise slightly more than 50 percent by 2050 compared 

to 1997 owing primarily to expansion on private lands. At 

the same time, competition from other domestic regions 

and continued pressure from imports will limit growth in 

500

400

300

200

100

0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Sawtimber stumpage price 

(1982$/MBF, Scribner rule)

South

Pacific Northwest West

Interior West

North

Figure 3.2—Softwood sawtimber stumpage prices in 1982 dollars per thousand board feet, Scribner log rule, by major U.S. region, 

with projections to 2050.

0

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Lumber

Pulpwood

Log exports

Other uses

Fraction of Douglas-fir region softwood harvest

Plywood

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Year

product and stumpage prices. 

There are several lessons that can be summarized from 

the experience in the Douglas-fir region.

• Changes in the end uses (see fig. 3.3) help shape the 

expectations of timberland owners for the types of 

products that might be derived from stands. Land 

managers need to consider future markets, as they 

Figure 3.3—Proportions of the Douglas-fir region (western Oregon and Washington) softwood harvest by 

product category: history and projections from 2000 RPA timber assessment (Haynes 2003).
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

16

will determine the value of the stands currently being 

managed. 

• Many of the management actions in the Douglas-fir 

region have been motivated by the perceived price 

premium for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) 

Franco) stumpage and products. This premium has 

largely disappeared because of reductions in the 

log export market as well as changes in the mix of 

products (and grades) produced in the region. Log 

exports drove up prices in the Douglas-fir and nearby 

regions for all landowners (see fig. 3.1). Because of this 

premium, stumpage prices for the Pacific Northwest 

exceeded other regions, especially from the 1970s 

through the 1990s when log export volumes were 

large (fig. 3.3). During this period, stumpage prices 

averaged 22 percent higher than prices in the South 

(see fig. 3.2). 

• The Pacific Northwest is expected to remain an 

integrated producer of forest products. However, the 

future mix of industries has a growing component of 

lumber production oriented toward domestic markets 

for commodity grades. This also contributes to the 

Table 3.1—Softwood removals, harvest, growth, and inventory for the Douglas-fir region and United States timberlands,a

1952–97, with projections to 2050

Historical Projections

Item and owner 1952 1962 1970 1976 1986 1991 1997 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

- - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Million cubic meters - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Douglas-fir region

National forest:

Removals 10 16 15 15 15 8 2 1 2 2 2 3

Harvest 10 17 14 14 19 8 2 1 2 2 2 3

Net annual growth 5 6 7 6 9 9 22 24 22 20 19 18

Inventory 1,348 1,351 1,288 1,249 952 952 1,456 1,754 1,967 2,161 2,334 2,493

Other public:

Removals 4 8 10 12 12 6 5 5 5 5 5 5

Harvest 4 8 10 12 12 7 5 5 5 5 5 5

Net annual growth 5 9 10 11 14 11 14 14 15 16 17 18

Inventory 569 561 556 543 555 459 545 662 769 885 1,009 1,139

Forest industry:

Removals 33 26 36 37 35 26 19 28 28 26 27 29

Harvest 35 28 35 36 35 31 18 28 29 27 27 29

Net annual growth 10 11 13 17 26 23 23 27 27 28 30 31

Inventory 927 776 673 623 570 508 500 487 482 487 554 591

Nonindustrial private:

Removals 9 6 7 6 6 11 9 9 10 12 14 15

Harvest 9 6 7 6 7 12 8 9 10 12 14 15

Net annual growth 8 9 10 10 12 12 11 11 12 14 15 13

Inventory 269 270 292 240 288 316 293 285 308 346 368 357

Total, Douglas-fir region:

Removals 56 55 69 70 67 50 34 43 45 45 48 51

Harvest 59 58 65 68 72 59 33 44 46 46 48 52

Net annual growth 28 34 40 44 61 55 70 77 79 81 84 82

Inventory 3,113 2,958 2,809 2,654 2,365 2,235 2,794 3,213 3,572 3,948 4,357 4,694

United States

Removals 220 215 260 283 322 308 287 273 305 333 355 379

Harvest 213 207 246 269 320 311 286 279 312 340 363 387

Net annual growth 219 272 321 354 355 339 384 446 460 469 474 464

Inventory 12,232 12,741 13,031 13,228 12,830 12,745 13,707 15,552 17,233 18,724 20,039 21,022

Note: Douglas-fir region includes western Oregon and Washington.

a

 Only timberland available for management is included in data.

Source: Haynes 2003. 
17

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

loss of the price premium once given to Douglas-fir 

for higher quality (grades) of lumber. 

• The implication of these changes is that market incentives will favor the transition to managed stands that 

produce relatively uniform logs (both quality and size) 

with reduced opportunities for logs that do not conform to processing standards (such as large [greater 

than 24 inches (60 cm) in diameter] logs).

• Increasing management on a small proportion of the 

timberland base enables large increases in both timber 

harvest and inventory volumes on a base of relatively 

constant area (see table 3.1).

An Economic View of Stumpage Markets

Stumpage markets are like all markets; they are a loosely 

defined spatial area within which producers and consumers are in communication with one another, where supply 

and demand conditions operate, and exchange of title to 

timber is transferred. In the communication process, prices 

are established as a function of simultaneous changes in 

underlying demand and supply forces in a complex system 

of interrelated commodity and factor markets. One of the 

factor markets is the stumpage market because stumpage 

is one factor in the production of goods such as lumber, 

plywood, or paper. 

Derived demand in the factor markets is often more 

inelastic than that for the final product resulting in wider 

price swings for relatively small changes in quantities. This 

tendency toward excessive price volatility sometimes leads 

economists to say that these markets are inefficient.4

 In 

the case of stumpage markets, however, there are attributes 

about logs that contribute to some of the perceived market 

inefficiencies. For example, although it is often argued 

(see Adams and Haynes 1991) that arbitrage opportunities5

 are sufficient to ensure consistency among prices for 

different sources of stumpage within and among markets, 

the nature of stumpage itself reduces the substitutability 

of, say, a thousand board feet of logs in Portland, Oregon, 

with a thousand board feet of logs in Portland, Maine. High 

transport cost relative to their value acts to prevent logs 

flowing long distances. In addition, differences in perceived 

quality (often associated with the nature of products made 

from the logs) are often reflected in differences in local or 

regional markets.

Another important aspect of markets is the relative responsiveness of both stumpage consumers and suppliers 

to changes in expected stumpage prices. Table 3.2 (from 

Adams and Haynes 1980, 1996) summarizes the stumpage price elasticities for private timber. For the most part, 

stumpage prices are extremely inelastic (i.e., unresponsive 

to changes in supply). Other than for the Douglas-fir region, 

these estimates have remained relatively unchanged over 

the past three decades. The consistency in estimates also 

suggests that modifications in landowners’ objectives relative to producing timber are slow to change. 

4

 Efficient markets for relatively homogenous products are described 

by economists as those in which prices reflect all publicly known 

information about the product, products are highly liquid (can be converted quickly to cash), and where there are low transaction costs.

5

 The premise of price arbitrage for stumpage markets is that prices 

for different species and sizes will differ in some fixed proportion 

reflecting differences in location, technical properties, or differences 

in consumer tastes. The opportunities for substitution in how wood is 

used helps equalize prices between species and sizes.

Table 3.2—Stumpage price elasticities of private timber 

supply by U.S. region, sample period averages

Industrial Nonindustrial

Region 1980 1995 1980 1995

Pacific Northwest, west side 0.26 0.44 0.06 0.42

Pacific Northwest, east side .16 .17 .18 .40

Pacific Southwest .26 .44 .12 .14

Northern Rocky Mountains .06 .25 a .18

Southern Rocky Mountains .06 .78 a .51

North Central .99 .28 .31 .67

Northeast .32 .34 .99 .31

South Central .47 .32 .39 .29

Southeast .47 .19 .30 .29

aNot estimated in 1980, instead an elasticity of 0.06 was estimated for 

all private landowners in the Rocky Mountains.

Source: Adams and Haynes 1980, 1996.

DISCUSSION

Prices and markets for various types and sizes of timber 

have influenced the goals for land management and the 

evolution and application of various management regimes. 

As shown in figures 3.1 and 3.2, forest product prices are 

often characterized as highly volatile but increasing faster 

than the overall rate of inflation. In the Douglas-fir region 

(as well as in the South), rising prices for timber products 

led to the adoption, by those owners sensitive to financial 

returns, of relatively systematic forest management regimes 

consisting of practices that tend to speed development of 

well-stocked forests (see Haynes et al. 2003 for a history). 

At the same time, rotation ages for these managed forests 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

18

have dropped, leading to more frequent entries and a greater 

proportion of the forest in relatively young stands (stands 

20 years or less). This increases the financial returns to 

those (individuals, companies, and various publics) who 

own timberlands. Current and expected trends show 

private timberland owners continuing to invest in active 

timber management, subject to increasing regulations of 

various forest practices (see Haynes 2003). Public lands, 

on the other hand, are expected to be managed for diverse 

goals—many not involving the marketplace—reflecting 

increased recognition of the benefits of many nontimber 

forest goods and services.

In the United States, we frequently debate the role that 

prices play in private timberland management. In periods 

of weak stumpage markets (e.g., for some hardwoods or for 

small softwood trees in the West) there is concern that 

landowners and managers will not implement certain forest practices, such as thinning to reduce fire risk. In the 

case of private timberlands, relatively low returns to forestry also may lead to changes in land use as landowners 

seek higher returns by converting to agriculture or residential developments (see Ahn et al. 2002, Haynes 2003, 

Kline and Alig. 2001, and USDA FS 1988, for additional 

details). At the same time, the lack of perceived effectiveness of markets to increase quantities of timber supplies 

(or other forest outputs) in periods of rising prices and 

perceived scarcity causes concern among advocates of intensive timber management (see Cubbage and Haynes 1988 

for a summary). These doubts have often prompted the 

establishment of public and private programs designed to 

increase timber production with the intention of slowing 

the expected rises in timber prices. 

The recent downward changes in expectations for longterm returns for forest management (see fig. 3.2) will raise 

questions in some managers’ minds about the incentives 

for sustainable forest management. From their perspective, 

the issue is how to practice forest management to produce 

a range of goods and services in a sustainable way that also 

meets their financial expectations. This concern has long 

been recognized as the heart of the forest management 

question (see Baker 1950, Davis 1966, Davis and Johnson 

1987, Davis et al. 2001). The concern about financial aspects 

is a fundamental component of how forest management 

decisions made by numerous landowners and managers 

contribute to sustainable forest management. Simply put, 

forest management has to demonstrate that it can pay for 

itself on private timberlands before we can assume that forest 

landowners will implement practices thought of as contributing to sustainable forest management. The importance 

of financial returns also means that many of the benefits 

of forest management need to accrue to those who pay the 

costs. Landowners lack the incentive to implement costly 

practices that have mostly broad societal benefits.

CONCLUSION

Forest management advocates are slow to acknowledge 

that markets can act as a barrier to sustainable forest management. Expectations of low returns for various forestry 

practices may lead myriad landowners, each with their 

own objectives, to respond to various market signals in 

ways that are not supportive of sustainable forest management. For many years, upward changes in timber prices 

have provided incentives for landowners (both public 

and private) to increase the intensity and extent of timber 

management practices. These price changes, which are 

also a function of changes in wood quality, have provided 

incentives for the development (or contraction) of various 

forest products industries. 

The projections of relatively constant real prices (fig. 

3.2) for the next five decades will provide an incentive for 

those landowners with a strong propensity to manage for 

timber production (industrial landowners, large private 

landowners, timberland investment organizations, public 

timberland managers) but by themselves will not engender a lot of enthusiasm among the majority of landowners 

who display a lower propensity for active timber management. Put another way, relatively stable price expectations 

are necessary for intensive timber management but not 

necessarily a sufficient condition for sustainable timber 

management. 

What does this mean in the context of sustainable timber 

management? Simply put, it means that the majority of 

timberland will be lightly managed while a small minority 

of acres will be heavily (or actively) managed (on relatively 

short rotations). The net effect is that prices, although not 

a barrier, will not provide a strong incentive to intensify 

timber management by many landowners. Because of 

this, advocates for intensive timber management may find 

themselves supporting more regulation rather than relying on markets to ensure what they perceive as progress 

toward sustainable forest management across a broader 

area of forest land.
19

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

LITERATURE CITED

Adams, D.M.; Haynes, R.W. 1980. The softwood timber 

assessment market model: structure, projections, and 

policy simulations. Forest Science Monograph 22. 

Washington, DC: Society of American Foresters. 62 p.

Adams, D.M.; Haynes, R.W. 1991. National forest 

timber supply and stumpage markets in the Western 

United States. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-435. Portland, OR: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station. 55 p.

Adams, D.M.; Haynes, R.W. 1996. The 1993 timber 

assessment market model: structure, projections, and 

policy simulations. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-368. 

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 58 p.

Ahn, S.; Plantinga, A.J.; Alig, R.J. 2002. Determinants 

and projections of land use in the south central United 

States. Southern Journal of Applied Forestry. 26(2): 

78–84.

Alexander, S.J.; McLain, R. 2001. An overview of 

nontimber forest products in the United States today. 

Journal of Sustainable Forestry. 13(3/4): 59–66.

Baker, F.S. 1950. The principles of silviculture. New 

York: McGraw-Hill. 414 p.

Cubbage, F.; Haynes, R. 1988. Evaluation of the 

effectiveness of market responses to timber scarcity 

problems. Marketing Res. Rep. 1149. Washington, DC: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 87 p.

Davis, L.; Johnson, K.N.; Bettinger, P.; Howard, T. 

2001. Forest management. 4th ed. New York: 

McGraw-Hill. 804 p.

Davis, L.S. 1966. Forest management: regulation and 

valuation. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill. 498 p. 

[plus appendixes].

Davis, L.S.; Johnson, K.N. 1987. Forest management. 

3rd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill. 790 p.

Haynes, R.W. 1980. Competition for national forest 

timber in the Northern, Pacific Southwest, and Pacific 

Northwest Regions. Res. Pap. PNW-266. Portland, 

OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment 

Station. 72 p.

Haynes, R.W., tech. coord. 2003. An analysis of the 

timber situation in the United States: 1952 to 2050. A 

technical document supporting the 2000 USDA Forest 

Service RPA assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR560. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 

254 p.

Haynes, R.W.; Adams, D.M.; Mills, J.R. 2003. 

Contemporary management regimes in the Pacific 

Northwest: balancing biophysical and economic 

concerns. In: Monserud, R.A.; Haynes, R.W.; Johnson, 

A.C., eds. Compatible forest management. Dordrecht, 

The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers: 

267–296. Chapter 10.

Kerns, B.K.; Pilz, D.; Ballard, H.; Alexander, S.J. 

2003. Compatible management of understory 

forest resources and timber. In: Monserud, R.A.; 

Haynes, R.W.; Johnson, A.C., eds. Compatible forest 

management. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer 

Academic Publishers: 337–381. Chapter 12.

Kline, J.; Alig, R. 2001. A spatial model of land use 

change for western Oregon and western Washington. 

In support of the 2000 RPA assessment. Res. Pap. 

PNW-RP-528. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 24 p.

Mason, D.T. 1969. Memoirs of a forester: part 3. Forest 

History. 13(1&2): 28–39.

Mendoza, G.A.; Prabhu, R. 2000. Qualitative multicriteria approaches to assessing indicators of 

sustainable forest resource management. Forest 

Ecology and Management. 131: 107–126. 

Mihajlovich, M. 2001. Does forest certification assure 

sustainability? Forestry Chronicle. 77(6): 994–997.

Tittler, R.; Messier, C.; Burton, P.I. 2001. Hierarchical 

forest management planning and sustainable forest 

management in the boreal forest. Forestry Chronicle. 

77(6): 998–1005.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 1988.

The South’s fourth forest: alternatives for the future. 

Forest Resour. Rep. 24. Washington, DC. 512 p.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

20

4. A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE LUMBER

MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN WASHINGTON STATE

John Perez-Garcia1

ABSTRACT

Forest products operations in Washington have changed 

dramatically since the first mill survey was conducted in 

1968. Among trends observed are a decline in sawmill 

numbers, an increase in the Class A sized mills, less public 

timber dependence, greater out-of-state log uses by sawmills, and a shift in log export activity from the Olympic 

Peninsula to the Lower Columbia economic area. We 

propose developing a database of sawmills in Washington 

characterizing their timber use in the past and likely use 

in the future. The database will serve to integrate analyses 

of the timber supply situation in Washington and policy 

alternatives regarding management for social, economic, 

and environmental objectives.

INTRODUCTION

T HE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (PNW) RESEARCH 

Station is undertaking an analysis of timber supply 

and milling infrastructure in the state of Washington. Such a study has not been completed since the early 

1990s when plot measurements were last done (Adams et 

al. 1992, Bare et al. 1995). The recent completion of the 

field survey of inventory plot measurements by the Forest 

Inventory and Analysis (FIA) unit of the USDA Forest Service for Washington makes such an update possible. Many 

current biological, economic, and social issues warrant an 

updated timber supply analysis. Recently implemented 

forest practice regulations, large differences in industrial 

and small nonindustrial ownerships, and forest health and 

sustainability concerns make the analysis of the timber 

supply situation in Washington timely. Similar efforts for 

Oregon provide an opportunity to produce an integrated 

supply analysis for Washington and Oregon. 

The breadth of the PNW Station research proposal 

includes: 

1

 John Perez-Garcia is an associate professor at the University of 

Washington, College of Forest Resources, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 

98195-2100.

• An analysis of the timber supply situation in 

Washington, 

• An analysis of technological changes in milling 

and their effects on timber demand, and

• An analysis of policy alternatives regarding 

management for social, economic, and 

environmental objectives.

Coordination with researchers at the University of 

Washington’s Center for International Trade in Forest 

Products, Oregon State University, and PNW Research 

Station to assure consistency in the analysis is an integral 

part of the study.

This paper provides a preliminary report on the second 

bullet point listed above. We summarize and provide preliminary information on existing mill surveys and include 

discussions that we have had with various individuals associated with the lumber manufacturing sector in Washington 

state. We report on existing mill data and determine data 

gaps of a survey that assesses technological changes in the 

milling sector and their effects on timber demand.

EXISTING MILL SURVEYS

The Washington Department of Natural Resources (DNR) 

has conducted mill surveys in the state of Washington 

since at least 1968, when it published its 1968 mill survey 

(Bergvall and Gedney 1970). Throughout the next four and 

one-half decades, the department has continued to carry 

out a periodic survey every 2 years, with the exception of 

1994 when the survey was only partially completed and 

not published. These periodic surveys in Washington have 

maintained consistency in many of the mill survey questions, which is of value to our study examining the changes 

in the milling sector over time. Our study uses selected mill 

surveys from 1968, 1978, 1988, and 1998 to characterize 

the development of the milling sector in Washington and 

its use of available log supply. The 1998 survey report is in 

draft form, and the DNR is concurrently preparing to publish 

the 1998 and 2000 survey data. It has also collected data 

for the 2002 survey. Data from these surveys are reported 
21

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

0

50

100

150

200

250

1968 1978 1988 1998

Number of sawmills

Class D

Class C

Class B

Class A

Year

for the following economic areas (Bergvall and Gedney 

1970; Bergvall et al. 1979; Larsen 1992, 2003):

Economic area County

Puget Sound Island

King

Kitsap

Pierce

San Juan

Skagit

Snohomish

Whatcom

Olympic Peninsula Clallam

Grays Harbor

Jefferson

Lewis

Mason

Pacific

Thurston

Lower Columbia Clark

Cowlitz

Klickitat

Skamania

Wahkiakum

Central Washington Chelan

Grant

Kittitas

Lincoln

Okanogan

Yakima

Island Empire Asotin

Columbia

Ferry

Pend Oreille

Spokane

Stevens

Walla Walla

The Inland Northwest Wood Products Research Consortium in cooperation with Washington State University 

Department of Natural Resource Sciences surveys the 

eastern Washington forest product sector (Schlosser and 

Blatner 2002). These periodic surveys provide data on mill 

production and shipments, as well as employment and 

payroll. The DNR has also conducted a marketing survey 

on its log purchasers (Tweedale, personal communication, 

Figure 4.1—Number of sawmills by class in four Washington 

Department of Natural Resources mill surveys. Mills are classified 

by increasing capacity from D to A; see text for definitions. Source: 

Bergvall and Gedney 1970; Bergvall et al. 1979; Larsen 1992, 2003.

Assistant Division Manager, Product and Leasing Division, 

DNR, Olympia, WA). The marketing survey contains data 

on mills and other timber purchasers that participate in 

Washington timber sales. The purpose of this new survey 

is to assist the state in the development and improvement 

of its timber marketing program for prospective buyers, 

taking into consideration the high quality of long-rotation 

state timber. An ongoing research project being undertaken by the Rural Technology Initiative at the University 

of Washington includes a survey of existing and potential 

DNR timber sale purchasers.

NUMBER OF SAWMILLS, THEIR 

CAPACITY AND LOG USE

According to the 1998 sawmill survey, there were 76 

sawmills in operation (Larsen 2003), a marked reduction 

since 1968 when the total number of sawmills was 212. 

The sector has been experiencing a consolidation of mill 

capacity, as evidenced by the size of mills in operation (see 

fig. 4.1). Mill size classification has remained consistent 

throughout the past four decades. Class D mills process 

less than 40 thousand board feet (MBF) of lumber tally 

capacity per 8-hour shift. Class C mills have a capacity of 

40 to 79.9 MBF. Class B mills have a capacity of 80 to 119.9 

MBF, and Class A mill capacity is 120 MBF and greater. 

In 1968, there were 24 Class A mills or 11 percent of the 

total number of mills. By 1998, there were 46 Class A mills 

or 59 percent of the 76 sawmills in operation. A quarter 

of the Class A mills (12) were located in the Puget Sound 

Economic Area in 1998, and over a third of them (17) in the 

Olympic Peninsula Economic Area. The Lower Columbia 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

22

area had 12 mills. The Inland Empire and central 

Washington area had five mills of Class A size. In 

1968, no large mills were located in the Inland 

Empire. The largest decline in mill number has 

occurred in the smallest class, Class D. In 1968 

there were 127 Class D mills in operation, and 

only 14 in 1998. Over 90 of these mills closed 

operations before 1988.

Mill operations are affected by many factors. 

During the past four decades, the sector has experienced demand and supply changes with associated low and high product prices, an expansion 

and contraction of the international log exporting 

sector and a subsequent growth in interstate log 

distribution, and the loss of available federal, 

other public, and private timber. These and other 

factors have led to dramatic changes in the structure of the sawmilling sector in Washington. For 

example, the 1980s were characterized by low 

national lumber prices owing to the expansion 

of lumber imports from Canada and an increase 

in lumber production from the Southern United 

States. Low lumber prices produced low margins 

and may have been a factor in the closure of many 

of the smaller mills in the 1980s. 

A prominent change observed over these past 

four decades has been the decline in the amount 

of timber harvested. This by itself would have 

decreased mill numbers, but the major decline 

in timber harvest occurred during the 1990s. 

Harvest levels in 1968 totaled 6.9 billion board 

feet (BBF), and were nearly identical in 1988, with 

a harvest of 7.0 BBF (Larsen and Nguyen 2002). 

In 1998, however, timber harvests totaled only 4 

BBF with the largest decline in harvest occurring 

in the public sector. 

In central Washington, private timber harvest 

increased 10 percent from 1968 to 1998 (table 4.1). A greater 

private harvest offset a small part of the 82-percent decline 

in public timber harvest. The Inland Empire area saw a 

larger percentage increase in the private timber harvest with 

a 47-percent increase from 1968 to 1998. This increase, 

combined with the nearly equal log imports from out of 

state, offset the 65 percent decline in public timber output. 

The trend in timber harvest in western Washington differs 

drastically. Private timber harvest was constrained and not 

able to offset lower public timber harvest. By 1998, in the 

Lower Columbia area, the second largest source of public 

timber in 1968, public timber harvest had dropped 81 

percent. The largest source of public timber, the Olympic 

Peninsula, declined 64 percent compared with the 1968 

harvest. Public timber harvests were reduced by 75 percent 

in the Puget Sound area. At the same time, the private sector 

harvest decrease ranged from a quarter of the 1968 harvest 

level in the Puget Sound area to 40 percent in the Lower 

Columbia area. Statewide, public and private timber harvests 

in 1998 were 42 percent less than 1968 levels. Most of the 

Table 4.1—Timber harvests by economic areas and ownership 

1968 1978 1988 1998

Thousand board feet, Scribner log scale

Central Washington:

 Private 290,502 386,217 324,427 318,375

 Public 368,643 277,275 345,062 65,773

Total 659,145 663,492 669,489 384,148

 Percentage private 44 58 48 83

Inland Empire:

 Private 247,674 314,633 332,203 363,407

 Public 190,166 147,757 167,123 66,083

Total 437,840 462,390 499,326 429,490

 Percentage private 57 68 67 85

Lower Columbia:

 Private 773,895 981,428 700,159 464,384

 Public 615,802 398,746 489,737 119,356

Total 1,389,697 1,380,174 1,189,896 583,740

 Percentage private 56 71 59 80

Olympic Peninsula:

 Private 2,217,273 2,099,997 2,482,502 1,519,706

 Public 911,122 945,803 896,041 328,292

Total 3,128,395 3,045,800 3,378,543 1,847,998

 Percentage private 71 69 73 82

Puget Sound:

 Private 856,445 714,029 837,457 652,876

 Public 497,394 516,794 470,661 123,320

Total 1,353,839 1,230,823 1,308,118 776,196

 Percentage private 63 58 64 84

Washington state:

 Private 4,385,789 4,496,304 4,676,748 3,318,748

 Public 2,583,127 2,286,375 2,368,624 702,824

Total 6,968,916 6,782,679 7,045,372 4,021,572

 Percentage private 63 66 66 83

Source: Bergvall and Gedney 1970; Bergvall et al. 1979; Larsen 1992, 2003.
23

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

decline occurred during the last decade. 

By 1998, the private sector was providing 

over 80 percent of the total harvest in each 

economic area of the state.

The reduction of public and private 

timber harvest affects the operation of 

mills. Over time, milling capacity will 

adjust to reflect changes in timber type, 

volume, and sourcing areas. The DNR 

mill surveys report log trade among the 

economic areas, and we present these log 

flows in table 4.2. As in the case of public 

timber harvest presented previously, many 

of the more dramatic changes in log flows 

occurred during the last decade. In 1998, 

a much greater proportion of the logs came 

to mills from counties outside its economic 

area boundary than in 1968 (table 4.2). 

A greater percentage of logs coming from 

outside a mill’s economic area implies a 

higher log input cost to the mill, because 

transportation distances are greater. It is 

believed that increases in transportation 

costs, combined with greater competition for shrinking log supplies during 

the 1990s, led to higher delivered-log 

prices. Increases in lumber prices through 

the mid 1990s helped sustain the most 

competitive mills. Many of the smaller 

operations, however, appeared to have 

suffered losses during this period.

Table 4.2 reports log flows for 1968, 

1978, 1988, and 1998. Although operations in the economic areas of eastern 

Washington–Central Washington and 

Inland Empire–were able to offset part of 

the public timber harvest decline by using private timber, it came at the higher 

expense of using a greater proportion of 

logs from outside of the economic area. Logs from the Puget 

Sound area were reportedly used in the Central Washington 

area in 1998. Logs were also imported from out of state. 

The Inland Empire area also provided a substantially higher 

portion of Central Washington area demand. Mills in the 

Inland Empire area were more dependent on logs from 

out of state. Imported logs made up nearly one-third of all 

logs milled in the Inland Empire area in 1998. During the 

last decade, the western Washington economic areas—

Puget Sound, Olympic Peninsula, and Lower Columbia 

areas—were less dependent on logs from out of state 

generally. An exception was the Olympic Peninsula area, 

where mills used a greater volume of logs from out of the 

area—27 percent in 1998 up from 3 percent in 1968.

Table 4.3 presents the percentage of logs used by lumber 

producers, log exporters, pulp and board manufacturers, 

Table 4.2—Log trade among economic areas

1968 1978 1988 1998

Thousand board feet, Scribner log scale

Central Washington:

Logs from out of state — 656 1,850 10,420

Logs from Puget Sound — — — 18,020

Logs from Lower Columbia 34,543 22,147 9,726 36,124

Logs from Inland Empire 77,815 64,940 57,745 128,768

Logs from Central Washington 507,462 414,345 320,090 175,416

Within-area percentage 82 83 82 48

Inland Empire:

Logs from Central Washington 4,445 15,337 21,532 9,244

Logs from out of state 33,455 23,258 36,533 113,289

Logs from Inland Empire 367,912 296,056 359,281 228,047

Within-area percentage 91 88 86 65

Lower Columbia:

Logs from Inland Empire — — 70 —

Logs from Puget Sound 2,936 — 4 2,940

Logs from Central Washington 71,673 20,791 28,507 4,352

Logs from out of state 150,411 102,934 278,072 100,421

Logs from Olympic Peninsula 223,428 197,693 144,111 120,446

Logs from Lower Columbia 806,447 1,126,582 850,743 518,171

Within-area percentage 64 78 65 69

Olympic Peninsula:

Logs from out of state 478 4,605 10,772 24,261

Logs from Central Washington 19,396 1,854 - 22,284

Logs from Lower Columbia 20,496 44,834 44,350 53,392

Logs from Puget Sound 23,040 144,237 111,670 281,291

Logs from Olympic Peninsula 2,054,391 2,158,083 2,521,740 1,007,994

Within-area percentage 97 92 94 73

Puget Sound:

Logs from out of state 24,698 44,900 21,832 24,226

Logs from Lower Columbia 31,965 3,991 2,000 115

Logs from Central Washington 38,729 76,644 148,504 33,942

Logs from Olympic Peninsula 585,126 622,948 333,642 172,034

Logs from Puget Sound 1,622,966 1,548,044 1,641,406 824,473

Within-area percentage 70 67 76 78

Source: Bergvall and Gedney 1970; Bergvall et al. 1979; Larsen 1992, 2003.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

24

and other sectors. Other sectors include pole, 

posts, pilings, shingle, and shake operations. In 

the eastern Washington areas, lumber manufacturing is the major sector using 50 percent 

or more of the logs consumed. The operations 

in the Central Washington area have gradually evolved to include operations other than 

sawmilling. Different trends exist in western 

Washington areas. In particular, log exporting 

enterprises, once dominant in the Olympic 

Peninsula area, have declined. Log exporting 

now dominates the Lower Columbia area where 

it accounts for as much log volume as the sawmilling sector. In the Olympic Peninsula area, 

lumber manufacturers now use 60 percent of the 

log volume consumed. Another trend evident 

in table 4.3 is the decline of the pulp and board 

sector in western Washington. 

FUTURE DEMAND 

FOR TIMBER

An estimate of future global demand for 

wood fiber is based on a gross domestic product of 3.5 percent and two historical trends in 

consumption of wood fiber (Perez-Garcia 2003). 

Consumption is estimated to reach between 2.0 

and 2.8 billion cubic meters (m3

) over the next 

five decades, adding from 0.5 to 1.3 billion m3

by the end of the 50-year period. Many states 

anticipate meeting this growing demand for 

wood products, including Washington and Oregon. Focusing on softwood saw logs, the U.S. 

South is projected to contribute an increase of 

17.7 BBF annually followed by Canada (7.1 BBF) 

and the U.S. West (including Washington) (1.8 

BBF) by the end of the next four decades. 

The United States is the largest market for softwood lumber in the world and is projected to continue to be so over 

the next four decades. There is an associated derived demand 

for saw logs required to produce the projected lumber consumption (and structural plywood as well). Worldwide, an 

additional 190 million m3

 (33.6 BBF) of softwood saw logs 

are estimated to be harvested by 2040 (fig. 4.2). Under this 

scenario, the U.S. South would expand its annual harvest 

by over 100 million m3

 (17.7 BBF) followed by Canada 

with over 40 million m3

 (7.1 BBF). The U.S. West would 

respond with about 10 million m3

 (1.8 BBF) annually. This 

volume increase would imply new capacity expansion for the 

U.S. West of seven to eight Class A mills. 

SURVEY DEVELOPMENT AND 

DATABASE CREATION

The brief look into historical data on mills in Washington 

and a projection of future demand provides an introduction 

to data needs for an assessment of the changes in the milling sector likely to occur and its effect on timber demand. 

Table 4.3—Log use by forest products enterprises

1968 1978 1988 1998

Central Washington:

Lumber (percent) 100 68 55 50

Log exports (percent)

Pulp and board (percent)

Other sectors (percent) 0 32 45 50

All sources (MBFa log scale) 566,852 545,075 389,411 368,199

Inland Empire:

Lumber (percent) 64 89 91 57

Log exports (percent)

Pulp and board (percent) 10

Other sectors (percent) 36 11 9 33

All sources (MBF log scale) 450,300 291,532 417,346 351,130

Lower Columbia:

Lumber (percent) 50 43 37 43

Log exports (percent) 15 34 35 43

Pulp and board (percent) 4 1 2

Other sectors (percent) 31 22 27 13

All sources (MBF log scale) 1,263,375 1,448,132 1,301,507 746,327

Olympic Peninsula:

Lumber (percent) 29 37 31 60

Log exports (percent) 37 44 50 13

Pulp and board (percent) 20 4 12 13

Other sectors (percent) 13 14 7 14

All sources (MBF log scale) 2,117,801 2,353,613 2,688,532 1,389,220

Puget Sound:

Lumber (percent) 42 41 43 67

Log exports (percent) 26 44 45 27

Pulp and board (percent) 22 6 6 3

Other sectors (percent) 10 10 6 3

All sources (MBF log scale) 2,303,484 2,296,527 2,147,384 1,054,790

a MBF = thousand board feet.

Source: Bergvall and Gedney 1970; Bergvall et al. 1979; Larsen 1992, 2003.
25

SECTION A: SUSTAINABLE MARKETS

Some relevant conclusions about historical trends and their 

implication for our future study include the following:

Mill numbers provide an interesting story historically. 

However, capacity changes may provide a quite different 

outlook. Mill consolidation and technological change 

information is included in DNR mill surveys but was not 

adequately analyzed in this preliminary study. Information 

on 8-hour shift capacity, operating days, and headrig technology must be included to adequately assess technological 

change in the sawmilling industry in Washington. 

The Lower Columbia area is now an exporter of logs, 

and has been for a least a decade. How does the demand 

for timber in Oregon affect milling capacity decisions in 

Washington? The broader implication as evidenced by imports of logs to the Inland Empire suggests that the log flows 

of different states are increasingly intertwined. Historical 

notions of timbersheds may be obsolete. Other questions 

emerge including, Should Oregon mills be included in the 

survey to assess technological changes in the milling sector 

in Washington? How about Oregon timber supply?

The Olympic Peninsula has diverted previously exported 

logs to its sawmilling industry. Is this trend complete? 

What is the outlook for log exports from the Olympic 

Peninsula region? We may ask the same questions for the 

Lower Columbia area, which has increased its exports of 

logs south. Plywood logs have also been diverted to lumber 

mills. What about chip manufacturers?

The Inland Empire area uses a greater percentage of 

out-of-state timber than other areas and provides logs to 

the Central Washington area, suggesting an increase in the 

interregional and interstate transportation of logs. Are these 

trends going to continue, or have we seen stabilization in 

the number of logs imported from other Western States?

Other questions arise from this preliminary review of 

sawmill surveys as well. Is the shift from public to private 

timber complete, and what will be the future of Washington’s 

smaller mills? These mills represent a declining yet still 

significant number in the state. What will be the role of 

such mills in the region’s sawmilling sector?

The Washington DNR has implemented a marketing 

survey of log purchasers asking, in addition to mill questions, questions concerning participation in state timber 

sales. Some of the information that has been collected 

relates to the study questions raised above. These questions include, for example, requests for characteristics of 

timber sales that buyers prefer and would like to see in the 

future. The combination of this survey, along with information obtained from other sources has led to the design 

of a preliminary database for use in our project. Our work 

plan includes the continued development of the database, 

completing the information on all sawmills in Washington 

and paying particular attention to issues we raised above 

for sawmills in particular areas.

METRIC EQUIVALENTS

Multiply 

When you know: by: To find:

Thousand board feet (MBF) 5.67 Cubic meters

Billion board feet (BBF) 5.67 Million cubic 

 meters

LITERATURE CITED

Adams, D.; Alig, R.; Anderson, D.; Stevens, J.; 

Chmelik, J. 1992. Future prospects for western 

Washington’s timber supply. Contribution 74. Seattle, 

WA: College of Forest Resources, University of 

Washington. 201 p.

Bare, B.; Lippke, B.; Oliver, C.; Zens, S.; Batista, J.; 

Dirks, J.; Moffett, J.; Robertson, G. 1995. Eastern 

Washington timber supply analysis. Special Paper 18. 

Seattle, WA: Center for International Trade in Forest 

Products, College of Forest Resources, University of 

Washington. 191 p. 

Figure 4.2—The distribution of saw log harvest volumes required to 

meet the projected 2040 global demand for softwood lumber. Source: 

Perez-Garcia 2003.

Europe 

1%

U.S. South 

54%

U.S. West 

6%

Canada 

23%

U.S. North

 2%

Other

9% Asia 

5%
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

26

Bergvall, J.; Gedney, D. 1970. 1968 Washington mill 

survey. Olympia, WA: Washington Department of 

Natural Resources; U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Forest and Range 

Experiment Station. 119 p. 

Bergvall, J.; Gee, L.; Minneman, K. 1979. 1978 

Washington mill survey. Olympia, WA: Division 

of Technical Services, Washington Department of 

Natural Resources. 134 p.

Larsen, D. 1992. Washington mill survey—1988. 

Series Report 11. Olympia, WA: Land and Water 

Conservation, Washington Department of Natural 

Resources. 14 p. [plus appendixes].

Larsen, D. 2003. Washington mill surveys—1998. Draft. 

Series Report 15. Olympia, WA: Office of Budget 

and Economics, Washington Department of Natural 

Resources. 15 p. [plus appendixes].

Larsen, D.; Nguyen, Q. 2002. Washington timber 

harvest 2000. Olympia, WA: Washington Department 

of Natural Resources. 91 p.

Perez-Garcia, J. 2003. The importance of Oregon’s 

forests in US and international markets: meeting 

the needs of future consumers of forest products 

and environmental services. Working Paper 92. 

Seattle, WA: Center for International Trade in Forest 

Products, College of Forest Resources, University of 

Washington. 95 p.

Schlosser, W.; Blatner, K. 2002. Eastern Washington 

sawmill statistics for the first half of the calendar 

year 2001. Pullman, WA: The Inland Northwest 

Forest Products Research Consortium, Department 

of Natural Resource Sciences, Cooperative Extension, 

Washington State University Extension. 4 p.
Section B: 

Sustainable Land Use

Ralph Alig, USDA Forest ServiceRalph Alig, USDA Forest Service
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

28

1 Ralph J. Alig is a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences 

Laboratory, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331; ralig@fs.fed.

us; (541) 750-7267.

ABSTRACT

Land use is dynamic in the Pacific Northwest. This will 

affect the region’s progress toward sustainability at the same 

time that population is expected to increase. The United 

States is expected to add around 120 million people, an 

additional 40 percent, to its population in the next 50 

years. The Pacific Northwest is expected to experience 

above-average population growth, including some people 

moving in from other regions. This will likely intensify land 

use pressures. In the most recent national comprehensive 

survey, the rate of conversion of rural land to developed land 

increased, with forest land being the largest source. More 

people on the national and regional landscapes will impact 

sustainability options for agriculture, forestry, residential 

communities, biodiversity, and other land-based goods and 

services. By illustrating potential development scenarios 

and their resulting effects on forest land, research can assist 

forest managers, policymakers, and land use planners in 

evaluating and anticipating potential effects of population 

growth and resulting land use change on forest productivity 

in both the Pacific Northwest and the United States. 

INTRODUCTION

I

N 1997, FORESTS COVERED ONE-HALF OF THE 

Pacific Northwest. These forests are being converted 

to other uses as the population grows. More people 

on the national and regional landscapes will affect sustainability options for forestry and other land uses that rely on 

the land base, such as agriculture, residential communities, and reserved areas. A key question is how society 

can make positive progress toward sustainability in the 

face of population growth. Potentially, many paths could 

lead to societal improvements. However, dynamics of the 

land base and society along with complexity of economicenvironmental-social relationships can complicate efforts 

at attaining sustainability. Different sustainable “futures” 

5. LAND USE CHANGES THAT IMPACT SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY

Ralph J. Alig1

are possible, but each is associated with tradeoffs that affect quality of life for people, such as different price levels 

and economic benefits faced by consumers, amounts and 

quality of habitat for wildlife and aquatic resources, and 

living and recreational space. 

This paper provides a retrospective of land use changes 

and associated socioeconomic changes in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington). It also synthesizes findings 

from recent studies about relationships of those land use 

changes to human activities, which affect sustainability 

aspects on the mosaic of land uses and land ownerships in 

the region. This includes examination of policies intended 

to enhance stewardship of some of the world’s most productive forests and help society adjust to changing demands 

for land and renewable resources. 

LAND BASE CHANGES OVER TIME

Land Use Changes

Over the long term, deforestation in the region has exceeded afforestation. From 1952 to 1997, forest land area 

in the Pacific Northwest declined by 2.5 million ac (1.0 

million ha) or 5 percent (Smith et al. 2001). Some of this 

land was used for urban and infrastructural developments, 

and other areas were cleared and converted to agriculture. 

In the most recent USDA surveys, the largest use for converted forests has been urban and developed use (Smith et 

al. 2001, USDA NRCS 2001). 

The most recent National Resources Inventory (NRI) by 

the USDA NRCS (2001) indicated that the annual rate of 

deforestation increased. Between 1992 and 1997, more than 

30,000 ac (12 141 ha) of nonfederal forests in the region 

annually were converted to developed uses, a 26-percent 

increase over the rate for 1982 to 1992. The rate increased 

in both Oregon and Washington, with the larger increase 

(33 percent) in Washington (USDA NRCS 2001). Rate of 

development increased with population growth and more 

economic activity. 

Between 1982 and 1997, approximately 400,000 

ac (162 000 ha) of nonfederal forested land was converted to developed uses, such as residential areas 
29

SECTION B: SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

2

 Net changes (area into forest minus area out of forest) are typically 

much smaller than gross changes (area into forest plus area out of forest). For a national study, Alig et al. (2003) indicated that gross change 

in forest area was 14 times the net change in forest area. 

3

 Timberland is defined as forest land capable of producing at least 

20 cubic feet per acre per year of industrial wood in fully stocked 

natural stands and that has not been withdrawn from timber use 

(Smith et al. 2001).

(USDA NRCS 2001). Drivers of the conversion include 

population growth and income changes (e.g., Alig 

et al. 2003, 2004; Kline and Alig 2001). The populations 

of Oregon and Washington have increased faster than the 

national average over the last decade, mostly around urban 

areas. The development and population increases were 

concentrated along the I-5 corridor; for example, Portland 

was one of the fastest growing cities in the United States 

in the 1990s. Across the Columbia River, developed area 

in Clark County, Washington, also grew significantly, as 

did developed land in the Puget Sound area of Washington. 

Urban sprawl and livability are issues receiving increased 

attention around the Nation, with more than 75 percent 

of U.S. residents now living in cities (USDC Bureau of the 

Census 2002).

Over the longer period surveyed by the USDA Forest 

Service (e.g., Azuma et al. 2002), Washington lost 8 percent 

of its forest land between 1952 and 1997 (fig. 5.1), more 

than four times Oregon’s rate (Smith et al. 2001).2

 Most 

forest land losses have been on nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) ownerships. Because NIPF owners tend to own 

a significant share of lower elevation forest land within 

riparian areas (Bettinger and Alig 1996), forest land losses 

on NIPF lands often impact aquatic ecosystems.

From 1952 to 1997, timberland3

 area in the Pacific 

Northwest declined by 3.7 million ac (1.5 million ha) or 

8 percent. These reductions are larger than for forest land 

because reclassification of forest land from timberland to 

a reserved or lower productivity class can affect the area 

of timber land relative to forest land. Although no single 

measurement adequately describes the productivity of forest land for uses other than timber production, an estimate 

of biological productivity is sometimes useful in helping 

to determine the forest’s capacity for other uses. About 80 

percent of all Pacific Northwest forest land, or 41 million 

ac (17 million ha) qualified as timberland in 1997, with 

12 percent reserved (i.e., withdrawn from timber use), 

whereas 8 percent did not meet the productivity standard 

for timberland.

Land use changes also affect the overall forest productivity for the region. Low-elevation forests on the west side 

of the Cascade Range crest are the forest lands most often 

converted to other uses, and represent some of the most 

productive forests in the world. Five counties on the west 

side—King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Clark in Washington, and Washington County in Oregon—gained more 

than 100,000 people between 1990 and 2000. McClinton 

and Lassiter (2002) indicated that more than 130,000 ac 

(52 600 ha) of forest soils in a medium productivity class 

were converted to nonforest uses and away from timber 

production between 1982 and 1997 in western Washington. 

This represents enough forgone timber to build approximately 1.3 million homes every 60 years.4

Profitable use of land for forestry and related investments such as tree planting are affected by the likelihood of 

conversion of forest land to developed uses (Kline and Alig 

2001). Tree planting in the Pacific Northwest has increased 

in recent years, somewhat offsetting deforestation. Area of 

annual tree planting in the Pacific Northwest has more than 

doubled from 1960 to 1999. Most of this represents reforestation, and such investment in tree planting was largely on 

forest industry lands and in response to increased timber 

harvest activities and regeneration opportunities. Timber 

harvest for the region increased from about 2.5 billion cubic 

feet (71 million cubic meters) in 1962 to around 3 billion 

4

 This assumes productive forests on medium or site III land that 

can produce 100,000 board feet per acre (including milling overrun) 

at age 60 in western Washington (Anderson et al. 1994), and that 

houses on average require about 10,000 board feet of lumber. 

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1952 1962 1977 1987 1997

Year

Timberland (thousand acres)

Oregon

Washington

Figure 5.1—Area of timberland for Oregon and Washington, 1952 to 

1997 (Smith et al. 2001).
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

30

by the program. Their results suggest that Oregon’s land use 

planning law has concentrated development within urban 

growth boundaries since its implementation; however, the 

effect of the law on the likelihood of development of land 

in forest and exclusive-farm-use zones was not statistically 

significant. 

In a recent update, Kline [in press] used new data on 

housing counts to revisit the question of the effectiveness 

of Oregon’s land use law. By using counts of structures per 

acre, Kline found less development in farmland and forest 

use zones since the law was developed. He projected that 

Oregon’s land use law had saved about 65,000 ac (26 000 

ha) of forest land from low-density development and about 

36,000 ac (15 000 ha) from the more developed class. 

Kline indicates that this analysis, based on estimates of 

building density, provides empirical evidence that Oregon’s 

land use law had some effect in preventing development 

of forest lands. 

Ownership Changes

The main ownership change between traditional forest 

ownership categories has been between forest industry 

and NIPF owner classes. Forest industry land is owned by 

companies for the purpose of timber production. The NIPF 

lands make up the remainder of the private forest land base. 

Forest industry owns most of the private timberland in the 

Pacific Northwest region, and generally manages forest land 

intensively for timber production. Land exchanges among 

private owners have been more common than exchanges 

between private and public owners (Zheng and Alig 1999). 

For example, FIA surveys in western Oregon indicated a 

(85 million cubic meters) in 1990 (USDA Forest Service 

1965, Smith et al. 2001).

Land Use Policies

Effectiveness of growth management efforts and other 

land use policies are issues warranting attention in sustainable forestry discussions. Human populations in Oregon and 

Washington have increased faster than the national average 

in recent years, and projections suggest that the population 

of Pacific Northwest west side in particular will continue 

to grow substantially (fig. 5.2), causing more conversion 

of forest land to developed uses. Americans’ incomes have 

grown substantially (in real terms or constant dollars) in 

recent decades, and average per capita personal income in 

the Pacific Northwest has increased more than 75 percent 

over the last 30 years (USDC Bureau of the Census 2002). 

Projected increases in discretionary income will increase 

demands for renewable resources, but may also lead to 

further conversion of forests for developed uses.

Land use policies adopted by the states to address urban 

sprawl and other land use changes include Oregon’s approach, which zones farmland and forest land for protection 

from development, and attempts to concentrate growth 

within urban growth boundaries (Kline and Alig 1999).5

As noted earlier, the rate of development of rural lands has 

increased over the NRI survey periods, and land is being 

developed at a higher rate than the growth in population. 

Amount of land developed per additional person has increased over time in the region. The dwelling density also 

continues to increase within the forest, mixed forest, and 

agriculture dominant land uses classified by the USDA 

Forest Service (Azuma et al. 2002). 

Studies of the effectiveness of policies to deal with such 

growth have relied heavily on the enhanced availability of 

data on land use conversions. In an initial study, Kline and 

Alig (1999) examined how well Oregon’s land use planning 

program has protected forest and farm lands from development since its implementation in 1973. They relied on plot 

remeasurement data from the USDA Forest Service’s Forest 

Inventory and Analysis (FIA) unit (e.g., Azuma et al. 2002). 

They developed an empirical model of land use before and 

after the program. They based it on socioeconomic factors, 

land rent, landowner characteristics, and the location of 

land within forest and exclusive farm use zones mandated 

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

Population

Western Washington

Western Oregon

Figure 5.2—Projected population for western Washington and 

Oregon, 1995 to 2050 (adapted from Kline and Alig 2001).

5

 Washington has the Growth Management Act, but my literature 

search did not identify any studies evaluating the act similar to 

evaluations of Oregon’s land use law.
31

SECTION B: SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

net shift of 750,000 ac (300 000 ha) from NIPF to forest 

industry owners from 1961 to 1994. In western Washington, preliminary findings suggest that about one-third of 

private forest land changed ownership between 1989–1990 

and 1999–2001 (Gray 2003). With mergers, acquisitions, 

and other institutional changes (Best and Wayburn 2001), 

significant changes also occurred within the industrial 

ownership category (e.g., combining Willamette and Weyerhaeuser companies in 2002). Changes in private ownership 

can result in notably different land management, particularly as some private owners respond to market changes 

prompted by reductions in federal timber supply. 

The diverse NIPF owner category also continues to 

change in composition. Along with this, forest fragmentation and parcelization and other factors may result in more 

noncorporate individual owners (e.g., Butler et al. 2004, 

Lewis and Plantinga (chapter 6 of this report), Sampson 

2000), and they are likely to have smaller tract sizes on 

average. The number of forest owners in the Western United 

States increased by 67 percent between 1987 and 1994 

(Birch 1997). Accompanying changes in tract size may be 

changes in the values and perceptions of forest landowners, 

some of whom are new arrivals to the region. New owners sometimes bring different land management attitudes 

compared to traditional owners, with changing values often 

the result of exurbanization, with urban residents moving 

to rural settings. 

A long-standing issue in forest resource supply studies is 

the likely behavior of private owners and how this behavior 

may be affected by incentives and institutional factors. For 

working forest lands to be sustained, most lands need to be 

profitable, and the most profitable marketable commodity 

from forest land is timber. Forest fragmentation and parcelization can affect profitability because of economies of 

scale and fixed costs that are invariant to treatment area. In 

addition to changing characteristics of the owner population 

over time, changes in ownership objectives may affect the 

resources. The larger, publicly owned companies are affected 

by shareholder expectations and pursue acceptable rates of 

return on investment within a changing institutional environment of incentives and regulations. The NIPF owners, 

in particular, possess multiple objectives, causing them to 

respond to socioeconomic forces and policies in complex 

and sometimes unpredictable ways. Nontimber services 

likely could be enhanced effectively by targeting incentive 

programs toward select groups of NIPF owners (Kline 

et al. 2000). “Neighborly concerns,’’ restrictions on land 

management and loss of flexibility, and whether owners live 

on their forested property also can affect behavior. 

Many factors affect NIPF land management behavior 

in various ways. Responses to public intervention depend 

upon the NIPF owners’ objectives; intended versus actual 

outcomes of public programs may not match if owners’ 

motivations are not sufficiently factored into intervention 

planning. As to the question of whether many NIPF owners 

might harvest sooner because of increasing regulation, a 

survey by Johnson et al. (1997) showed that a majority did 

not say that possible future regulations were important in 

their most recent harvest decisions. However, many significant differences between large- and small-acreage owners 

showed up in the Johnson et al. study (1997) and Kline 

et al. (2000) findings. For tree planting decisions, NIPF 

owners tend to give greater weight to upfront costs than to 

time-distant timber revenues (Alig et al. 1990). The NIPF 

owners are older on average than the overall population; 

this raises questions about who will eventually take their 

place, with implications for rural communities, timber 

supply, and the environment.

Land Management Intensity

An increasingly important consideration for forest policy 

analysts is the potentially significant impact that population growth and resulting land use changes will have as 

forests are converted to residential and other developed 

uses. Forest lands located near low-density residential and 

other development could become less productive because of 

fragmentation into smaller management units and changes 

in the characteristics and management objectives of newer, 

more urban-oriented forest owners. Propensity of NIPF 

owners to harvest timber and manage for commercial timber 

production may be negatively correlated with population 

densities. Further, development has the potential to increase 

wildfire risk associated with increased human habitation 

and activity in forests. Kline et al. (2004) indicate that to 

date the density of nearby development has not measurably affected timber-harvesting activities of private forest 

owners in western Oregon. However, density of development near forest land may have a small but measurable 

negative impact on the likelihood that forest owners will 

thin existing stands of planted trees. Their results suggest 

that although increasing building densities may have had 

a limited impact on timber harvesting thus far, they have 

the potential to reduce investment in forest management 

activities in the future. 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

32

PROJECTIONS

Projections are that the Pacific Northwest’s share of 

total population will increase, as the Nation’s population 

expands. Timberland area in the region is projected to be 

reduced by about 1 million ac (400 000 ha) between 1997 

and 2050 (Alig et al. 2003). Projections suggest significant 

expansion of low-density and urban development in the 

future, with the proportion in western Oregon expected to 

nearly double by 2055 (Kline and Alig 2001). Although the 

majority of new development for residential, commercial, 

or industrial uses is projected near existing cities, greater 

development also is indicated in forested areas, suggesting 

greater numbers of people will be living in proximity to 

western Oregon’s forest lands in the future. Probabilities 

of development are a function of socioeconomic and location factors, ownership, and geographic and physical land 

characteristics (Kline and Alig 2001, Kline et al. 2001).6

The west side of the region is likely to experience the 

most growth (fig. 5.2), and projected total reductions in areas 

of forest land from 1997 to 2050 are 1 percent in western 

Oregon and 1 percent in western Washington (Kline and 

Alig 2001). Urban areas on the west side are projected to 

increase by about 20 percent. The largest timberland change 

is a 2-percent reduction for NIPF timberland. Projected 

percentage reductions for farmland (4 percent in western 

Oregon and 13 percent in western Washington) are larger 

than for forest land, largely because farmlands tend to be 

closer to existing cities. 

IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE 

FORESTRY OPTIONS 

From a long-term conservation perspective, population growth and other socioeconomic changes could 

considerably affect sustainable forestry options. The U.S. 

population may double by 2100, growing to more than 

500 million people (USDC Bureau of the Census 2002), 

and the Pacific Northwest is expected to experience aboveaverage population growth. If the population increases as 

projected, accompanied by a rise in personal income, the 

result could be a net loss of several hundred thousand acres 

of timberland in the region over the next several decades 

(Kline and Alig 2001). In a landscape comprising a mosaic 

of major land uses, sustainable forestry will be competing 

with other interests, such as agriculture or residential uses. 

The forest-urban interface is characterized by expansion of 

residential and other developed land uses onto traditionally 

forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forest lands 

as productive socioeconomic and ecological resources.

Future improvements in land management and policymaking could be facilitated by better understanding of 

how systems function, and this will require both enhanced 

data collection and research. Monitoring land use changes 

would be enhanced by regional snapshots every 2 or 3 years. 

Enhanced data on the distribution of humans and settlements on the landscape would augment the discrete land 

use characterization approach (e.g., Kline 2003, Kline et al. 

2003), given that socioeconomic and ecological processes 

are sensitive to a range of human habitation. Regional data 

on historical building densities would allow broader application of studies such as those by Kline (2003, in press) and 

Kline et al. (2003, 2004) regarding population densities and 

intensity of timber management and production activities. 

Consistent regional coverage would also allow examination 

of possible spill-over effects among states regarding certain 

land use policies.

Total timber volume in the Pacific Northwest has increased on a timberland base that is 5 percent smaller 

than the one in 1952. Demand for wood products is expected to keep growing, driven by the same population 

increases and economic development that affect demands 

for other major land uses. However, intensified timber 

management on the supply side represents some of the 

largest projected changes involving private timberland 

(e.g., Alig et al. 1999, 2002), and could act to moderate or 

temper upward pressure on future wood prices. Private 

timberlands have the biological potential to provide larger 

quantities of timber in an environmentally sound manner 

than they do today (e.g., Alig and Adams 1995). However, 

the real potential of forest owners to gain revenue from 

forest land will affect their capability to maintain ownership, much less make further investments in the property. 

This includes other potential sources of revenue outside 

of timber and real estate development, such as carbon 

credits, recreation, or other services. Haynes (chapter 3 of 

this report) discusses whether timber markets will provide 

incentives for sustainable forest management and investment issues; many of the opportunities for intensified forest 

management can be undertaken with positive economic 

returns, but changing social and institutional aspects may 

6

 The projections by Kline and Alig (2001) were used in the 2000 

Resources Planning Act assessment in support of analyses of 

production possibilities for multiple resources from the region’s 

forest land base (USDA Forest Service 2001).
33

SECTION B: SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

affect actualization. Most timber management intensification opportunities in the United States are in the South 

and the Pacific Northwest west side. Further, more forests 

around the world are actively managed today as compared 

to earlier decades and include an expanding area of productive forest plantations that will affect future timber prices 

(Haynes 2003). Sustainability analyses can be enhanced if 

both land use and land investment options are examined, 

along with social attitudes toward private forests. Analyses 

should be explicit with respect to timing of tradeoffs, in 

addition to the growing attention given to spatial details, 

such as the effects of more people locating on forested 

landscapes (e.g., expanded wildland-urban interfaces that 

affect fire management). 

Selected findings from land use change research germane 

to the sustainability issue are: 

• Long-term trends in forest area and timberland area 

are downward, with the region losing 3 percent of 

forest land and 8 percent of timberland since 1952. 

Amount of per capita forest land has dropped from 

13.9 ac (5.6 ha) in 1952 to 5.5 ac (2.2 ha) in 1997. 

• In recent years, a large majority of converted forest 

land in the Pacific Northwest has been developed 

versus shifted to agriculture. Acres leaving the forest 

land base typically have quite different forest resource 

attributes than those entering.

• Most forest land conversion has been on NIPF lands, 

which are often important in riparian zones. 

• Projections are for another 4 million people to be 

added to the region’s population by 2050. This could 

result in about 1 million ac (400 000 ha) of timberland being converted to other uses. 

• The amount of developed area per new person in the 

region has increased over time. 

• One measure of forest investment in private timberland has been annual tree planting, which more than 

doubled in area from 1960 to 1999.

• Private timberlands have the biological potential to 

provide larger quantities of timber than they do today; 

a growing area of productive tree plantations will 

provide a larger share of the Nation’s timber harvest, 

and this can allow some other forest lands to be used 

increasingly for nontimber purposes. 

Implications of socioeconomic changes and land use 

dynamics warrant consideration in forest sustainability 

analyses. Broadly, the challenge for land managers is to 

implement strategies that provide the range of goods and 

services expected from forests. “Sustainable forest management,” like “sustainable development,” is an attractive 

but vague goal (Haynes 2003, chapter 6). Any operational 

definition of “sustainability” will be a reflection of values 

and therefore is subject to change. Biophysical, ecological, 

and socioeconomic components all warrant consideration. 

Further, given our fixed land base, future sustainability 

deliberations should include broad consideration of relationships among major uses of our land and aquatic resources 

(e.g., effects of an increasing area of developed land and 

pressures on remaining forest land), so that the many future 

decisions by a diverse set of owners potentially can lead to 

an improved environment-economy linkage. 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I appreciate the assistance of Jeff Kline and Andy Gray, 

USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station; and USDA 

analysts working with the NRI survey results. Review 

comments were provided by Connie Best (Pacific Forest 

Trust), Mark Tilton (USDA Natural Resources Conservation 

Service), Tim Trohimovich (1,000 Friends of Washington), 

and Richard Haynes (PNW Research Station). 

METRIC EQUIVALENTS

When you know: Multiply by: To find:

Acres (ac) 0.405 Hectares

Cubic feet (ft3

) .0283 Cubic meters

LITERATURE CITED

Alig, R.; Adams, D. 1995. Productivity of nonindustrial 

private forests in western Washington: alternative 

futures. Western Journal of Applied Forestry. 

10(1): 29–35. 

Alig, R.; Adams, D.; Chmelik, J.; Bettinger, P. 1999.

Private forest investment and long run sustainable 

harvest volumes. New Forests. 17: 307–327.

Alig, R.; Kline, J.; Lichtenstein, M. 2004.

Urbanization on the U.S. landscape: looking 

ahead in the 21st century. Landscape and Urban 

Planning. 69: 219–234. 

Alig, R.; Mills, J.; Butler, B. 2002. Private timberlands: 

growing demands, shrinking land base. Journal of 

Forestry. 100(2): 32–37.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

34

Alig, R.; Plantinga, A.; Ahn, S.; Kline, J. 2003. Land 

use changes involving forestry for the United States: 

recent trends and projections. Gen. Tech. Rep. 

PNW-GTR-587. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 92 p.

Alig, R.J.; Lee, K.J.; Moulton, R.J. 1990. Likelihood 

of timber management on nonindustrial private 

forests: evidence from research studies. Gen. Tech. 

Rep. SE-60. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest 

Experiment Station. 17 p.

Anderson, D.; Alig, R.; Adams, D. 1994. Yield 

and inventory tables for western Washington. 

CINTRAFOR Special Paper 12A. Seattle, WA: College 

of Forest Resources, University of Washington. 149 p.

Azuma, D.; Birch, K.; Hemstrom, A.; Kline, J.; 

Lettman, G. 2002. Land use change on non federal 

land in western Oregon, 1973–2000. Salem, OR: 

Oregon Department of Forestry. 48 p. 

Best, C.; Wayburn, L. 2001. America’s private forests: 

status and stewardship. Washington, DC: Island Press. 

268 p.

Bettinger, P.; Alig, R. 1996. Timber availability on 

non-federal land in western Washington: implications 

based on physical characteristics of the timberland 

base. Forest Products Journal. 46(9): 1–16.

Birch, T. 1997. Private forest land owners of the Western 

United States, 1994. Resour. Bull. NE-137. Radnor, 

PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Northeastern Forest Experiment Station. 249 p.

Butler, B.; Swanson, J.; Alig, R. 2004. Determinants of 

forest fragmentation in the Pacific Northwest. Forest 

Ecology and Management. 189: 363–377. 

Gray, A. 2003. Personal communication and draft 

notes regarding preliminary FIA survey results from 

periodic remeasurement of western Washington. On 

file with: Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 3200 SW 

Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331.

Haynes, R., tech. coord. 2003. An analysis of the timber 

situation in the United States: 1952–2050. Gen Tech. 

Rep. PNW-GTR-560. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 254 p. 

Johnson, R.; Alig, R.; Moore, E.; Moulton, R. 1997. 

NIPF landowners’ view of regulation. Journal of 

Forestry. 97: 23–28. 

Kline, J. 2003. Characterizing land use change 

in multidisciplinary landscape-level analyses. 

Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. 

32(1): 103–115. 

Kline, J. [In press]. Forest and farmland conversion 

effects of Oregon (USA) land use planning program. 

Environmental Management.

Kline, J.; Alig, R. 1999. Does land use planning slow 

the conversion of forest and farm land? Growth and 

Change. 30(1): 3–22.

Kline, J.; Alig, R.; Johnson, R. 2000. Fostering the 

production of nontimber services among forest owners 

with heterogeneous objectives. Ecological Economics. 

33: 29–43. 

Kline, J.; Azuma, D.; Alig, R. 2004. Population growth, 

urban expansion, and private forestry in western 

Oregon. Forest Science. 50(1): 33–43. 

Kline, J.; Azuma, D.; Moses, A. 2003. Modeling the 

spatially dynamic distribution of humans in the 

western Oregon Coast Range. Landscape Ecology. 

18(4): 347–361.

Kline, J.D.; Alig, R.J. 2001. A spatial model of land use 

change for western Oregon and western Washington. 

Res. Pap. PNW-RP-528. Portland, OR: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Research Station. 24 p.

Kline, J.D.; Moses, A.; Alig, R.J. 2001. Integrating 

urbanization into landscape-level ecological 

assessments. Ecosystems. 4(1): 3–18.

McClinton, J.; Lassiter, S. 2002. Prime forestland or 

urban development: Must we choose? In: Agee, J., 

ed. Proceedings, Summit 2000: Washington private 

forests. Seattle, WA: University of Washington: 21–26.
35

SECTION B: SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

Sampson, N. 2000. People, forests, and forestry: new 

dimensions in the 21st century. In: Sampson, N.; 

DeCoster, L., eds. Proceedings, Forest fragmentation 

2000. Washington, DC: American Forests: 53–59.

Smith, W.B.; Vissage, J.S.; Darr, D.R.; Sheffield, R.

2001. Forest resources of the United States, 1997. 

Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-219. St. Paul, MN: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North 

Central Research Station. 190 p.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 1965.

Timber trends in the United States. Forest Resource 

Report 17. Washington, DC. 235 p.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 

2001. 2000 RPA assessment of forest and range 

lands. FS-687. Washington, DC. 78 p. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources 

Conservation Service [USDA NRCS]. 2001.

The national resources inventory, 1997. (Revised 

December 2000). Washington, DC. http://www.nhq.

nrcs.usda.gov/NRI/1997. (October 15, 2003).

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 

2002. Gateway to census 2000. Washington, DC. 

http://www.census.gov. (October 9, 2003). 

Zheng, D.; Alig, R. 1999. Changes in the non-federal 

land base involving forestry in western Oregon, 

1961–1994. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-518. Portland, OR: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Research Station. 22 p. 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

36

6. RESEARCH METHODS TO ADDRESS THE

ECONOMICS OF FOREST HABITAT FRAGMENTATION

David J. Lewis and Andrew J. Plantinga1

ABSTRACT

Forest fragmentation poses threats to wildlife, particularly birds, in many parts of the United States. We describe 

an economic approach to analyzing forest fragmentation that 

integrates econometric models of land use, simulations with 

high-resolution land cover data, and models of bird species 

abundance. We conclude by discussing the application of 

these methods to the Pacific Northwest region.

INTRODUCTION

I

N MANY REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES, 

the area of forest land has been stable or has increased 

in recent decades. Although regional trends in forest area have been beneficial for some wildlife species 

dependent on forest habitat, the populations of others 

(e.g., songbirds, amphibians) continued to decline even in 

regions that gained forest area. For example, according to 

a recent estimate by the National Audubon Society, over 

one-quarter of the bird species in the United States have 

declined significantly in population over recent years. 

A problem for many species (e.g., Neotropical migrant 

songbirds) is forest fragmentation—gaps in forest cover 

that result when formerly contiguous forest is broken into 

two or more parcels by land conversion for uses such as 

agriculture and residential housing (Askins 2000). 

A recent geographic information system analysis of the 

fragmentation of continental U.S. forests indicates that 

most forested parcels in the Lower 48 States are found in 

fragmented landscapes (Ritters et al. 2002). Heavily fragmented landscapes have fewer interior parcels; i.e., forested 

parcels that are at least a certain minimum distance from 

the nearest edge. Such interior parcels provide the best 

habitat for many sensitive species (Askins 2000, Robbins 

et al. 1989, Robinson et al. 1995). For example, interiorforest songbirds require habitat that is 200 m from the 

nearest nonforest edge (Temple and Cary 1988). However, 

1

 Graduate student and assistant professor, respectively, Department 

of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, 

Corvallis, OR 97331.

approximately 62 percent of forest in the Lower 48 States is 

located within 150 m of the nearest edge, which suggests 

that fragmentation of U.S. forest is so pervasive that edge 

effects influence ecological processes on most forested lands 

(Ritters et al. 2002). 

In response to the possible ecosystem effects of fragmentation, there have been proposals to manage the spatial pattern of a region’s forests to minimize fragmentation. Ritters 

et al. (2000) suggested that policies should be constructed 

to fill in forests in “perforated” conditions. A region may 

be considered perforated if it is heavily forested and heavily fragmented (defined in terms of the number of interior 

parcels) by some nonforested use. Robinson et al. (1995) 

suggest that large regions in North America should be identified and either retained (if unfragmented) or reforested to 

increase interior forest acreage. They suggest that the focus 

of a fragmentation policy should be on rural regions rather 

than urban areas because a large unfragmented region 

can act as an ecological source (e.g., breeding grounds) for 

populations of birds, whereas other areas (e.g., urban) can 

act as sinks that depend on bird immigration to maintain 

population levels. 

One obvious challenge in such large-scale conservation 

planning is that much of the land in the United States is 

privately owned. Standard economic theory tells us that 

landowners will make land use decisions based on private 

economic returns and that public goods such as the wildlife 

benefits from interior forest will not be fully considered 

in the decision calculus of private landowners. As such, it 

may be desirable to use land use policies to encourage the 

private provision of public benefits associated with interior-forest parcels. Implementation of effective and efficient 

policies designed to limit or reduce forest fragmentation 

requires an understanding of the current economic environment shaping landowner choices as well as the likely 

response by landowners to policies designed to address 

fragmentation.

This report describes an economic approach to analyzing 

forest habitat fragmentation and exploring land use policies 

designed to achieve related wildlife conservation goals. The 
37

SECTION B: SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

methods proposed here integrate econometric models of 

land use, simulation methods with spatially explicit data, 

and wildlife statistics and models. The next sections describe 

the methodological approach in general terms and application of these methods to the Pacific Northwest region. 

RESEARCH METHODS

Econometric Land Use Models

Econometric models of land use are used to quantify 

the relationship between private land use decisions and 

economic and physiographic factors. The basic methodology for estimating these models has been developed and 

refined under earlier Forest Service-sponsored cooperative 

research (Ahn et al. 2001, Mauldin et al. 1999, Plantinga 

and Ahn 2002, Plantinga et al. 1999). The analysis of forest fragmentation will build, in particular, on the work of 

Lubowski et al. (2003), who studied land use transition 

probabilities for six major land use categories (cropland, 

pasture, forest, range, urban, and Conservation Reserve 

Program). Each of these transition probabilities (e.g., the 

probability that pasture land is converted to forest) is expressed as a function of economic returns to alternative uses 

and land characteristics, as well as unobserved parameters. 

These parameters are then estimated with data on plot-level 

land use decisions from the National Resources Inventory 

(NRI) (USDA NRCS 2001), county-level average economic 

returns to each alternative use, and plot-level land quality. 

The latter variable measures the suitability of the land for 

agricultural production. The interaction between the land 

quality variable and the returns variable may account for 

plot-level variation in returns.

Once the parameters have been estimated, the econometric model of land use transitions can be used to estimate 

the response by private landowners to financial incentives 

designed to encourage afforestation or retention of land in 

forest. For instance, we can estimate how the probability that 

land shifts from pasture to forest changes when landowners 

receive a subsidy for afforestation. For a given NRI plot, this 

is done by increasing the economic returns to forest by the 

amount of the subsidy, substituting the higher returns into 

the function for the pasture-forest transition probability, and 

evaluating the resulting expression. We would expect the 

subsidy to increase the probability of land moving from pasture to forest, although the effects may differ depending on 

the land quality of the plot. These differential effects are captured in the econometric model because the probabilities are 

functions of plot-level land quality.

The location of individual NRI plots is not disclosed 

for confidentiality reasons. The NRI database reports only 

the county in which a plot is located. As such, if we want 

to use the econometric model to study how policies affect 

land use patterns, then our only choice is to aggregate 

plot-level changes to the county level or higher.2

 However, 

to study forest fragmentation we need to characterize the 

spatial configuration of land uses at a much finer spatial 

scale. For this reason, we turn to simulation methods, as 

described in the next subsection.

Simulation methods

High-resolution land cover maps and simulation methods 

can be used to resolve the difference between the scale of the 

econometric model and the scale needed for fragmentation 

analysis. The econometric results provide sets of land use 

transition probabilities specific to each land quality class 

and county. It is reasonable to assume that a common set 

of probabilities apply to all parcels of a given quality within 

a county. This is so because the key economic factors that 

determine transition probabilities (e.g., commodity prices) 

exhibit little variation within a county. For the purpose 

of the simulations, one can view the estimated transition 

probabilities as a set of rules that govern land use changes 

within a county. For example, if the value of the pastureto-forest transition probability is 0.10, then the rule is that 

10 out of every 100 parcels of pasture land within a county 

should shift into forest use over a given period (in the NRI 

data, this is 5 years). 

The simulations will make use of high-resolution (e.g., 

1 km2

) land cover maps. These data divide a landscape into 

a grid and, for each cell in the grid, indicate the dominant 

land use category. The simulations involve changing the 

use of cells in a way that obeys the rules indicated by the 

transition probabilities. Of course, this can happen in many 

ways. For example, if there are initially 100 cells in pasture 

within a county, then there are approximately 6.3×1019

ways to select 10 of these parcels for conversion to forest 

that satisfy the 0.10 rule. Clearly, it will be infeasible to 

enumerate all of the possible landscapes that satisfy the 

2

 Each NRI plot represents a certain number of acres. Suppose a given 

plot is in pasture initially. Then, the product of the initial pasture acres 

and the pasture-forest transition probability gives the number of acres 

moving to forest (as represented by this plot). Aggregating these acres 

over plots within a county yields a county estimate of the acres moving 

from pasture to forest.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

38

transition rules. However, by generating a large number of 

landscapes, we can hope to characterize the distribution 

of land use changes.

The simulations will be accomplished by using cellular 

automata, which is a spatially explicit form of finite-state 

automata. In cellular automata a group of cells are defined 

across space, where each cell faces a set of transition rules 

that depend on the current state of the cell as well as the 

state of neighboring cells. In our application, the current 

land use defines the state of each cell. Cellular automata are 

flexible and can be used with multiple states (i.e., forest, 

agriculture, urban, etc.) and landscapes of varying size. By 

repeatedly simulating land use transitions, we generate a 

distribution of potential outcomes. When land use policies 

are introduced, the underlying probabilities (or econometrically based sets of rules) change, and we obtain a different 

distribution of potential outcomes associated with each 

policy (e.g., different levels of afforestation subsidies). Each 

of these hypothetical landscapes corresponds, in general, 

to a different spatial pattern of forests. 

The simulation approach will allow us to explicitly compare the effects of different land use policies on the spatial 

structure of a region’s forest. For example, a policy that 

targets parcels to convert based on economic cost only (i.e., 

a “least-cost acreage” policy that minimizes the total cost of 

achieving a given acreage target) may create a substantially 

different landscape than a policy that targets the creation 

of “interior” forest patches. The tradeoffs between these 

policies arise from both economic costs and environmental 

benefits. For example, a least-cost acreage program may be 

the least costly approach to sequestering carbon, but it may 

not be the least costly way to meet wildlife and biodiversity 

goals. This is because a least-cost acreage policy is only 

concerned with a net increase in forest, not the location of 

the new forest. In the case of maximizing wildlife goals, a 

land use policy targeted toward the creation of “interior” 

forests may prove more efficient, yet in general will be more 

expensive to implement.

The tradeoffs involved between alternative land use 

policies may also differ considerably by the magnitude and 

spatial distribution of forest on the initial landscape. For 

example, least-cost acreage policies may be more successful at creating interior-forest patches on landscapes with a 

greater amount of initial forest cover. This is due simply to 

the fact that any converted parcel has a greater likelihood 

of being next to a forest patch when initially the landscape 

is heavily forested. On the other hand, for landscapes with 

very little initial forest cover, any particular parcel is less 

likely to be adjacent to forest patches, thus making the 

likelihood lower that a least-cost acreage policy would 

result in interior-forest parcels. Simulation modeling will 

allow us to quantify and evaluate the nature of the tradeoffs 

involved on a variety of landscapes.

Modeling Impacts on Bird Species

Although the simulation methods can characterize the 

spatial distribution of forests under different policy regimes, 

ultimately we want to understand the implications of forest 

fragmentation for particular wildlife species. We focus on 

impacts on bird species; as noted above, forest fragmentation 

is believed to have serious consequences for many birds, 

and the available data sets on birds are particularly rich. 

However, with the appropriate data, these methods can be 

applied to other species of interest.

Models of bird densities can be developed for a large 

range of species. The basic data on birds are from the 

national breeding bird survey (BBS) administered by the 

U.S. Geological Survey and the Canadian Wildlife Service, 

and interpolated to produce incidence surfaces for each 

species (Yang et al. 1995). A second data layer consists of 

land cover types at the 1-km2

 scale, as described above. 

A third consists of climate data as bird distributions are 

ultimately limited by climatic constraints. These data are 

used to construct forest fragmentation indices for each of 

the 640-km2

 hexagonal units, which measure the degree 

of continuity in the forested landscape. The fragmentation 

indices and the incidence surface is then used to measure 

the relationship between forest fragmentation and species 

abundances, with controls for covariates such as climate and 

land cover (e.g., O’Connor and Jones 1997). That is, each 

value of the index can be associated with an abundance 

measure for a particular species.

Building on previous research in Hayes and O’Connor 

(2001) and Matthews et al. (2002), the models of land use 

and bird abundance will be combined and used to identify 

the effects of policies designed to reduce forest fragmentation. As discussed above, the combined econometric and 

simulation techniques generate a large number of hypothetical land use patterns, each of which implies a spatial 

pattern of forests and, thus, a particular value of the fragmentation index discussed above. In principle, one could 

compute the fragmentation index for each iteration of the 

simulation and, thus, define a corresponding distribution 

of effects on bird species abundance.
39

SECTION B: SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

Unfortunately, this approach appears to be too computationally burdensome. Many of the variables used to predict 

species abundance depend on the spatial pattern of land 

use (e.g., mean patch size of forest within a 640-km2

hexagon), and these would need to be recomputed for each 

iteration of the simulation and each hexagon before being 

used to make abundance predictions for a large number 

of species. Further research is needed to identify feasible 

ways to link the results of the simulation analysis to bird 

population measures. The most promising approach is one 

of preliminary perturbation and calibration of landscape response: samples of the landscape change patterns generated 

by the simulations would be used to recompute the predictor 

statistics used in the bird models; these statistics are then 

treated as responses to the inputs driving the simulations 

(the transition matrix, initial fragmentation metrics for the 

area, etc.); the response surface is then used to estimate 

the change in wildlife predictor variables likely to result 

from this change, and these estimates will be used to predict the expected change in each species’ abundance. This 

approach is likely to give adequate accuracy because bird 

distributions (as distinct from the locations of individual 

territories) typically integrate over land cover conditions 

over some tens of square kilometers. For example, it matters 

little to an area-sensitive species whether a large enough 

forest stand is here or 5 km away (although having to go 

50 km away would indeed reduce local bird abundance). 

The effectiveness of these predictions can be checked by 

explicit recalculation of all the predictor metrics for a sample 

of the Monte Carlo runs and comparison of their values 

to the estimated ones, and the resulting deviations can be 

combined with the sensitivity of the species abundance 

to that predictor to determine the likely error in the bird 

predictions. Alternatively, the geographical focus of the 

analysis could be reduced to reduce the computational 

size of the problem.

APPLICATION TO THE PACIFIC 

NORTHWEST REGION

According to NRI statistics, between 1982 and 1997, 

155 400 ha of forest were converted to urban use in 

Oregon and Washington, mostly on the west side of 

the Cascade Range crest. During the same period, there 

was an active margin between forest and agricultural 

uses. Approximately 57 870 ha were converted from forest to agricultural use (cropland, pasture, range), while 

116 200 ha were converted from agricultural use to 

forest. The changes, in terms of total acres, were similar on 

the west side and east side. In percentage terms, the changes 

are fairly small (e.g., the 138 000 ha of forest converted 

to urban uses on the west side represented a 2.1 percent 

decline in total forest acreage), although similar to those at 

the national scale. Nevertheless, even small changes in forest 

area can have significant implications for wildlife habitat 

depending on the spatial distribution of these changes.

The methods discussed above can be readily applied to 

the Pacific Northwest region. Plot-level land use and bird 

incidence data can be obtained from the NRI and BBS 

databases. High-resolution land cover and land quality 

data are increasingly available. For example, in Oregon 

these data are available as part of the Oregon Rural Lands 

Database (Oregon Department of Land Conservation and 

Development [n.d.]). Figure 6.1 provides an example for 

Marion County, Oregon. The top panel shows the spatial 

distribution of the major land use categories, and the bottom panel depicts land quality, where lighter colors indicate 

land more suitable for agricultural production.3

Two issues will need to be addressed in applying these 

methods to the region. One is the matter of scope. It is 

unclear whether we will be able to analyze the entire twostate region, or whether we will have to emphasize case 

studies. For example, we might focus the analysis on several 

counties that cover a large degree of the range of economic, 

physiographic, and biological conditions. The scope will 

likely be determined by computational constraints (e.g., how 

many land use simulations we can feasibly run). The second 

issue is whether the econometric land use and bird species 

models need to be tailored to the Pacific Northwest region. 

Although we would use data specific to the region, another 

possibility is to use these data to re-estimate the model parameters. At present, the models are fitted to national data. 

Some analysis will be needed to determine if the national 

model appears to represent regional relationships.

CONCLUSIONS

The ultimate goal of this research is to derive distributions of bird species abundance. An example is provided 

in figure 6.2. As shown, the distributions would indicate 

the probability, P(A), that each abundance measure, (A), is 

achieved. Provided we can map each simulated landscape 

3

 The eight land quality categories in figure 6.1 are the land capability 

class ratings. See U.S. Department of Agriculture (1973) for details.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

40

Abundance (A)

p(A)

No subsidy $100/acre

Salem

Land use

Agriculture

Pasture

Riparian

Forest

Urban

Land 

Use

Land 

Quality

Soil quality

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

Salem

Figure 6.1—Land use and land quality maps for Marion County, 

Oregon. Soil quality 1 is the most suitable for agricultural 

production, with higher numbers indicating decreasing suitability.

into a species abundance measure, the distribution would 

be constructed by simply computing the percentage of times 

we record a given abundance measure. These distributions 

could be defined for regions (e.g., the Pacific Northwest), 

or for subregions (e.g., counties). They could also be derived 

for individual species or for groups of species. The distributions would also be affected by land use policies. For example, figure 6.2 shows that the abundance distribution 

shifts to the right with a $100 per acre subsidy. We are 

particularly interested in comparing how distributions 

change with different types of policies. In particular, how 

do the results differ for least-cost acreage policies and 

policies targeting interior forest? We also can compare the 

results under alternative baseline assumptions. For example, different trends in urbanization might affect the 

cost and effectiveness of forest fragmentation policies. By 

focusing on the distribution of species abundance, we can 

indicate not only the central tendency (e.g., the expected 

outcome) but also the likely range of outcomes.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors acknowledge helpful comments from Claire 

Montgomery and JunJie Wu.

ENGLISH EQUIVALENTS

When you know: Multiply by: To find:

Meters (m) 3.28 Feet 

Hectares (ha) 2.47 Acres

Kilometers (km) .6215 Miles

Square kilometers (km2) .386 Square miles

Figure 6.2—Probability distributions of species abundance. 
41

SECTION B: SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

Plantinga, A.J.; Ahn, S. 2002. Efficient policies for 

environmental protection: an econometric analysis 

of incentives for land conversion and retention. 

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 

27(1): 128–145.

Plantinga, A.J.; Mauldin, T.; Alig, R.J. 1999. Land use 

in Maine: determinants of past trends and projections 

of future changes. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-511. Portland, 

OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Research Station. 20 p.

Ritters, K.; Wickham, J.; O’Neill, R.; Jones, B.; Smith, E. 

2000. Global scale patterns of forest fragmentation. 

Conservation Ecology. 4(2): http://www.consecol.

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Ritters, K.H.; Wickham, J.D.; O’Neill, R.V.; Jones, 

K.B.; Smith, E.R.; Coulston, J.W.; Wade, T.G.; 

Smith, J.H. 2002. Fragmentation of continental 

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Robbins, C.S.; Dawson, D.K.; Dowell, B.A. 1989. 

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Robinson, S.K.; Thompson, F.R., III; Donovan, T.M.; 

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lessons from landscape ecology. New Haven, CT: 

Yale University Press. 320 p.

Hayes, L.; O’Connor, R.J. 2001. The distribution of 

forest-patch sensitivity over the range of a Neotropical 

migrant bird. Unpublished manuscript. On file with: 

Raymond O’Connor, Department of Wildlife Ecology, 

University of Maine, 5775 Nutting Hall, Orono, ME 

04469.

Lubowski, R.N.; Plantinga, A.J.; Stavins, R.N. 2003.

What drives land-use change in the United States? 

Unpublished paper. On file with: Ruben Lubowski, 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research 

Service, 1800 M Street NW, Washington, DC 20036.

Matthews, S.; O’Connor, R.; Plantinga, A.J. 2002. 

Quantifying the impacts on biodiversity of policies for 

carbon sequestration in forests. Ecological Economics. 

40(1): 71–87.

Mauldin, T.; Plantinga, A.J.; Alig, R.J. 1999. Land use 

in the Lake States region: analysis of past trends and 

projections of future changes. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-519. 

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 24 p.

O’Connor, R.J.; Jones, M.T. 1997. Using hierarchical 

models to assess the ecological health of the Nation. 

Proceedings of the 62nd North American Wildlife 

Natural Resource Conference. Washington, DC:

Wildlife Management Institute: 501–508.

Oregon Department of Land Conservation and 

Development. [N.d.] Oregon rural lands database. On 

file with: Oregon Department of Land Conservation 

and Development, 635 Capitol St. NE, Suite 150, 

Salem, OR 97301.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

42
Section C:

Sustainable Forestry Options

The upper left scene is a thinning (respondents to questionnaire had a strong preference for this type of treatment), upper right 

is a clearcut (low preference), lower left is a patch cut (medium-low preference), and lower right is a two-age stand (medium 

preference). 

Gordon Bradley, University of Washington
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

44

ABSTRACT

Forest management involves meeting the demands of 

multiple forest values including human perceptions of forest 

treatments. The authors of this chapter have synthesized 

the results and management implications from a previous 

study in the Capitol State Forest, with special emphasis 

on sustainable wood production in the Pacific Northwest. 

Respondents representing various interest groups (forestry, 

education, recreation, and environment) were asked, via a 

mail-in questionnaire, to rate photographs of forest scenes. 

In general, all respondents preferred less intensive treatments that were closer to what they considered natural 

conditions, but foresters had a higher preference for more 

intensive treatments than other groups. By knowing people’s 

preferences for forest scenes, managers can incorporate 

the value of human perceptions in their forest plans and 

management activities.

INTRODUCTION

WHAT SHOULD A FOREST LOOK LIKE, OR 

what are the most desirable features of forests? 

These questions may seem naïve at first glance, 

but they turn out to be difficult questions to address, and 

their answers depend on the person being asked. A forest 

should be green, no doubt, and for most people that means 

trees arranged in a certain pattern on the landscape. But 

how green? How many trees? And what pattern of arrangement? Should the forest have trees of several species and in 

multiple age classes? And what about forestry treatments like 

clearcutting, patch cutting, group selection, and thinning? 

What impact do these practices have on the way people 

7. SEEING THE FOREST FOR THE TREES: 

VISUAL RESOURCES RESEARCH IN THE CAPITOL STATE FOREST

Gordon Bradley 1, Anne Kearney 2, and Seth M. White 3

perceive the forest? Finally, do different groups of people 

(foresters and environmentalists, for example) have preferences for different types of forest scenes? The answer to 

the apparently simple question—What should a forest look 

like?—turns out to be more complex at second glance.

The Sustainable Wood Production Initiative and collaborators are working to address some of these questions 

and their management implications in the Pacific Northwest. This chapter is a synthesis of ongoing research on 

public perceptions of forest management carried out in the 

Capitol State Forest near Olympia, Washington. The initial 

results of the study were recently published in another 

USDA Forest Service publication (Bradley et al. 2004); this 

chapter highlights the results of that study in the context 

of identifying and understanding key issues relating to 

sustainable wood production. 

THE CAPITOL STATE FOREST STUDY

Visual impact research at the Capitol State Forest is a 

collaboration between the Washington Department of Natural Resources, the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest 

Research Station, and the University of Washington College 

of Forest Resources. By using undergraduate and graduate 

students as initial test subjects, researchers developed a 

method of showing photographs of different forest scenes 

to people and asking them to rate the images according to 

preference (see photographs on page 43). In the world of 

visual resources management, this type of rating system is 

termed a perception-based study (British Columbia Ministry 

of Forests 1981). This method is just one way to measure 

people’s preferences. Other techniques include measuring 

preferences for physical attributes such as vegetation, sky, 

and water (Zube et al. 1975); measuring preference for 

traditional land cover types such as residential, industrial, 

forest, and agriculture cover; or using an information-based 

approach, a method that evaluates whether the informed 

respondent would choose to explore a given forest scene 

in greater detail (Kaplan and Kaplan 1989). In the Capitol 

Forest study, forest scenes represented different forest 

1

 Gordon Bradley is a professor of land use planning, College of Forest 

Resources, University of Washington.

2

 Anne Kearney is a research assistant professor in environmental psychology, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington.

3

 Seth White is a science writer-editor, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Focused Science 

Delivery Program, 620 SW Main St., Suite 400, Portland, OR 97205 

and a graduate student in the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife at 

Oregon State University.
45

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

management treatments including clear-cutting, patch 

cutting, group selection, repeated thinning, two-age, and 

no treatment. Photographs were shown to different groups 

of people including people from urban and rural areas, 

foresters and educators, the environmental community, 

and forest recreationists.

The findings of Bradley et al. (2004) suggest that for most 

timber harvest practices, preferences are generally ordered 

in a similar fashion for all groups of people. People prefer 

scenes that are “green,” having a more natural appearance 

without large and recent clearings. However, research 

from the Capitol State Forest also revealed that there is a 

significant difference between the preferences of foresters 

and all other groups when it comes to the most intensive 

timber harvest practices, especially for clearcutting. One 

immediate management implication is that forest practices 

resulting in greater tree retention, smaller openings, and 

rapid green-up will serve to reduce the visual impact of 

timber harvest practices. An associated implication is that 

it may be difficult to win broad public support for intensive 

forest practices, and the results suggest that there may be 

diminished confidence in forest managers as stewards of the 

land. To change public sentiment regarding intensive forest 

management practices, the forest industry will likely need 

to improve the visual quality of their treatments, especially 

in visually sensitive landscapes such as travel corridors.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

The authors of previous chapters have shown that sustainable wood production in the Pacific Northwest depends 

on more than just traditional concepts of sustained growth 

and yield including forest markets, harvest potential, land 

use changes, and alternative forestry techniques. Another 

important factor, and an emerging area of forestry research, 

is the idea that human perceptions of forest management 

practices may have substantial implications for how we 

manage forests. Public and professional perceptions toward forestry treatments are likely to play an important 

role in strengthening society’s trust of the field of forest 

management. 

Of course, the management of visual aspects of forestry 

is simply one of a number of important considerations 

for sustainable forestry. Others include economic and 

engineering efficiency, worker safety, fish and wildlife 

habitat, soil stability, and measures of ecosystem function. In many cases, meeting visual resource management 

targets is complementary to other targets of sustainable 

forestry—managing for the visual landscape may coincide 

with managing for the ecological, social, and economic 

landscape. To meet the demands of multiple forest goals, 

treatments can accommodate diverse perspectives; research 

from the Capitol State Forest addresses the question of human perceptions in order to complete the picture.

So what should a forest look like? Research in the Capitol 

State Forest continues to address this question. The answer 

may not only be complex but may also change through time 

or with more available information about the forest. Much of 

the work by Bradley et al. (2004) described in this chapter 

is related to simple preference ratings of individual scenes. 

Interesting questions remain about why people have preferences for certain timber harvest practices, how preference 

ratings may change as forests mature, or how preference 

ratings may change when people are given information 

about the costs and benefits of different forest management 

practices. Ongoing research continues to address these and 

other questions as they arise, and works to integrate human 

values into how we manage our forests.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This research is one component of an integrated, longterm research study developed and implemented by the 

Silviculture and Forest Models team, Resource Management and Productivity Program of the USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station (PNW), and the 

Washington State Department of Natural Resources to test 

silvicultural options for managing young-growth forests 

(Curtis et al. 2004). Financial support was provided by the 

PNW Resource Management and Productivity program and 

the Focused Science Delivery Program. 

LITERATURE CITED

Bradley, G.A.; Kearney, A.R.; Wagar, J.A. 2004. 

Public reactions research. In: Curtis, R.O.; Marshall, 

D.D.; DeBell, D.S., eds. Silvicultural options for 

young-growth Douglas-fir forests: the Capitol Forest 

study—establishment and first results. Gen. Tech. 

Rep. PNW-GTR-598. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station: 63–73. Chapter 7.

British Columbia Ministry of Forests. 1981.

Forest landscape handbook. Victoria, BC. 100 p.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

46

Curtis, R.O.; Marshall, D.D.; DeBell, D.S., eds. 2004.

Silvicultural options for young-growth Douglas-fir 

forests: the Capitol Forest study—establishment 

and first results. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-598. 

Portland, OR: U.S.Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 110 p.

Kaplan, R.; Kaplan, S. 1989. The experience of nature: 

a psychological perspective. New York: Cambridge 

University Press. 340 p.

Zube, H.H.; Pitt, D.G.; Anderson, T.W. 1975.

Perception and prediction of scenic resource 

values of the Northeast. In: Zube, E.H.; Brush, 

R.O.; Fabos, J.G., eds. Landscape assessment: 

values, perceptions and resources. Stroudsburg, 

PA: Dowden, Hutchinson, and Ross: 151–167.
47

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

ABSTRACT

Sustainable forestry standards include criteria for the 

extent of area of forest successional stages. This paper describes two previous studies that searched for cost-effective 

management strategies to increase the area of private forest 

in western Oregon that has structural attributes associated 

with old-growth conifer forest. One study used a heuristic 

optimization algorithm to search for stand management 

regimes that met older forest structural criteria with minimum impact on the value of timber production. The other 

study used a timber supply model to search for strategies 

to meet regional targets for area of private forest that meets 

older forest structural criteria within given time horizons 

with minimum impact on the value of timber production. 

A proposal is described that would extend the previous 

studies to analyze alternative approaches for implementing 

management for older forest structure on private land in 

western Oregon. The proposed research will use the timber 

supply model to simulate approaches based on regulations 

and on incentives. The approaches will be evaluated on the 

basis of forest conditions that occur at the end of the analysis 

period and effect on the value of timber harvest. 

INTRODUCTION

S

USTAINABLE FORESTRY MEANS DIFFERent things to different people, but it is increasingly 

understood to include forest benefits and uses other 

than wood production. For example, the Criteria and Indicators for the Conservation and Sustainable Management of 

Temperate and Boreal Forests (Montreal Process Working 

Group 1998) include indicators that describe the structural composition of the forest (e.g., Indicator 2—extent 

of area covered by different forest types and age classes or 

successional stages—under Criterion 1—conservation of 

8. A PROPOSAL FOR EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE

APPROACHES TO IMPLEMENTING SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY

PRACTICES IN WESTERN OREGON

Claire A. Montgomery1

1

 Associate professor, Department of Forest Resources, Oregon 

State University, Corvallis, OR. Address correspondence to claire.

montgomery@oregonstate.edu.

biodiversity). Dwindling area of old-growth forest has been 

of particular concern in the Pacific Northwest and has been 

an important driver of federal forest policy in the region. For 

example, the Northwest Forest Plan established extensive 

areas of late-successional reserves in which it is hoped oldgrowth forest will develop over time (FEMAT 1993). 

Some silviculturists and ecologists are concerned about 

the effectiveness of the federal reserve approach to increasing 

old-growth forest area (Carey and Curtis 1996, Tappeiner 

et al. 1997). Forest stand conditions on reserved sites are 

A future consideration is, will conservation practices that minimize 

impacts to other forest uses be better received by a society that values 

both wood production and conservation? (Photo courtesy of H.J. Andrews 

Experimental Forest staff, USDA Forest Service.)
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

48

considered for implementing older forest structural management including further regulation, market-based incentives, 

and direct payments to landowners. Each has its merits; each 

has its drawbacks. A systematic comparison of outcomes 

under each of the strategies would help policymakers design 

policies that are effective and economical. 

In this paper, we describe a proposal to use a regional 

model of private timber supply in western Oregon (Adams 

et al. 2002) to simulate existing and potential regulations 

and incentive programs. The proposed research builds on 

two previous studies that identify cost-minimizing strategies for older forest structure (OFS) management in western 

Oregon. It will compare various approaches to inducing 

OFS management on private land to the cost-minimizing 

approaches identified in those studies. 

Older forest structural criteria are described in the next 

section. In the third section, the two previous studies are 

described. One study used heuristic optimization methods 

to search for cost-minimizing OFS management strategies 

at the stand level (Latta and Montgomery, in press). The 

other used a regional timber supply model to search for 

cost-minimizing OFS management strategies at the regional 

level (Montgomery et al. 2003). The proposed research is 

described in the fourth section. 

OLDER FOREST STRUCTURE

In the state forest management plans, the Oregon Department of Forestry defined five forest stand structure classes 

for managed forests based on stand attributes that develop 

over time. These classes are intended to serve as guidelines 

for managing structurally diverse forests. The fifth management class, OFS, has stand attributes commonly associated 

with old growth and includes the following criteria:

• Two or more cohorts or distinct canopy layers.

• Twenty or more live trees per hectare with diameter 

at breast height (d.b.h.) exceeding 81 cm.

• Fifteen or more standing dead trees per hectare 

with d.b.h. exceeding 30 cm and two or 

more with d.b.h. exceeding 61 cm.

• Between 42 and 65 m3

 of sound down logs 

per hectare.

The Oregon state forest plans also identify target forest 

land base distributions for the five stand structure classes. 

Target ranges for the OFS class are 20 to 30 percent of the 

forest land base in northwest Oregon and 10 to 30 percent 

in southwest Oregon. These are on the low end of the 

different from those of the stands that grew into the natural 

old-growth forests with which we are familiar. Stands on 

reserved sites are more densely stocked and may not develop 

the structural attributes (such as large trees and multiple 

canopy layers) that define old-growth forests, developing 

instead into dense, overstocked forests with increased risk 

of fire, insects, and disease. These silviculturists recommend a more active approach that involves multiple thinnings with relatively large volume removals in each entry 

(Barbour et al. 1997, Carey and Curtis 1996, McComb et 

al. 1993). This encourages rapid growth in the remaining 

trees and multiple-level canopy development. The resulting 

stands may not substitute perfectly for natural old-growth 

forest, but they may provide many of the same habitat, 

recreation, and ecosystem services that people value in 

old-growth forests. 

It is unlikely that extensive thinning to aid the expansion 

of old-growth area will occur on federal forest land in the 

near future. Although the recently passed Healthy Forests 

Restoration Act of 2003 will facilitate thinning on federal 

forest land, its primary purpose will be fire-risk reduction and, hence, it will be concentrated near communities 

and limited in scale. The Oregon Department of Forestry 

included active management for older forest structure in 

the management plans for the state forests (Oregon Department of Forestry 2001a, 2001b), but state forests compose 

only about 5 percent of the forest land area in western 

Oregon. Active management may be acceptable to private 

forest landowners, who hold 45 percent of the forested 

area in western Oregon, because it can contribute to forest 

structural objectives while generating revenue from timber 

harvest. If appropriately managed, these lands may provide 

an opportunity to implement an active management alternative to the federal reserve-based strategy, thereby offsetting 

some of the risk associated with the federal approach.

To the extent that it leads to deviation from optimal 

commercial timber management, active management for 

older forest structural attributes does reduce income for 

landowners who undertake it, albeit by a lesser amount 

than a reserve-based approach would. It also reduces the 

supply of wood to manufacturers and the supply of wood 

products to consumers. Minimizing the cost of conservation is in the interest both of landowners and a society that 

values both wood and conservation.

If private lands are to be managed to meet regional conservation objectives, it will be necessary to induce private 

landowners to do so. There are many strategies that can be 
49

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

estimated historical range of 30 to 70 percent for the Coast 

Range (Teensma et al. 1991, Wimberly et al. 2000).

PREVIOUS STUDIES

Cost-Minimizing Management for Older 

Forest Structure at the Stand Level

Latta and Montgomery (in press) used a random search 

heuristic similar to Bullard et al. (1985) and an individual 

tree simulation model, ORGANON (Hann et al. 1997), to 

search for cost-minimizing old-forest management regimes 

for a wide range of stand types that occur on private land 

in western Oregon. The basic data describing private 

forested land in western Oregon were obtained from the 

most recent timber inventory compiled by the USDA Forest 

Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) unit (Azuma et 

al. 2004). The FIA inventory defines 1,260 inventory plot 

units in western Oregon, each representing about 2630 ha 

on average, based on homogeneity of forest attributes.

Using the heuristic algorithm, the authors chose from a 

set of possible management activities to develop management regimes that maximize land and timber value while 

meeting all of the OFS criteria described above, except for 

sound down logs (owing to modeling limitations), for 30 

years prior to clearcut harvest. Up to three OFS management regimes were identified for existing stands on each of 

the 1,260 inventory units with maximum years to clearcut 

timber harvest constrained to 65 years, 95 years, and 155 

years. Management regimes for OFS were also identified for 

the regenerated stands that would replace existing stands 

after clearcut harvest. Possible management activities included doing nothing, planting, precommercial thinning, 

up to three proportional commercial thinnings of trees aged 

20 to 110 years, removing between 10 and 70 percent of 

the standing volume, and clearcut harvest. 

The individual-tree simulation model, ORGANON, was 

used to track d.b.h., height, and mortality for each tree in 

the stand. This information was used to evaluate the first 

two criteria for OFS. The number of cohorts was the number of 9-m tree height classes with at least 10 percent of 

the total stand stocking. A snag model, based on Graham 

(1981) and Cline (1977), was used to evaluate the criteria 

for standing dead trees or snags. If all other criteria were 

met, but fewer than required snags were generated by the 

model, then selected live trees were counted as snags and 

harvest volumes were reduced accordingly. 

The OFS management regimes for the 858 inventory 

units classified as stocked conifer units, as well as opportunity cost estimates, are summarized in Latta and 

Montgomery (in press). The algorithm was not successful 

in identifying OFS management for every inventory unit 

for the shorter time horizons. For example, regimes were 

identified for 59 percent of the stocked conifer units for the 

medium time limit and 17 percent of the units for the short 

time limit. These were concentrated on high-site units with 

well-stocked, older stands. 

The OFS management activities identified by the algorithm were consistent with recommendations by silviculturists and ecologists for repeated thinning with relatively 

high volume removals to speed the development of stand 

structural attributes associated with old-growth forest in 

the Pacific Northwest (Bailey and Tappeiner 1998, Hayes et 

al. 1997, Tappeiner et al. 1997). For example, the algorithm 

almost always (97.5 percent of the time) prescribed three 

thinnings for regenerated stands, occurring, on average, 

every 20 years, beginning at age 40 and removing, on 

average, 63, 56, and 40 percent of the standing volume. 

Unfortunately, it is not feasible to test the OFS management 

regimes on the ground. As a result, it is uncertain whether 

the prescribed treatments will indeed result in the desired 

OFS attributes and, if so, how closely managed stands can 

substitute for natural old-growth forest. However, there are 

concerns about the alternative reserve approach as well.

The algorithm was also used to develop intensive management regimes for each of the inventory units. In contrast 

to the OFS management regimes, the intensive management regimes involved no commercial thinning at all for 

70 percent of the conifer units and, for the remainder, one 

commercial thinning that removed an average of 40 percent 

of the volume at an average age of 30 years. 

Stand-level opportunity cost was estimated for each inventory unit as the difference between the land and timber 

values under intensive management and under OFS management. The average opportunity cost for OFS on regenerated conifer stands was $366 per hectare or 30 percent of 

maximum land and timber value. This cost arises primarily 

from postponing clearcut timber harvest beyond financial 

maturity. It varied widely for existing conifer stands, but 

averaged $3,254 per hectare or 32 percent of maximum 

land and timber value. All else constant, the stand-level 

cost of OFS was lowest in the Klamath region and highest 

on the west side of the Coast Range. Douglas-fir was the 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

50

highest cost forest type. Cost increased with site index 

and, for existing stands, with stand age and percentage of 

normal stocking.

Cost-Minimizing Regional Management for 

Older Forest Structure

Montgomery et al. (2003) used a regional timber supply 

model to search for cost-minimizing OFS management at 

the half-state level. The model was originally developed 

to estimate potential sustainable timber harvest levels on 

private forest land in western Oregon (Adams et al. 2002). 

It chooses the assignment of forest area to management 

prescriptions that maximizes the discounted sum of producer and consumer surplus in the log market in western 

Oregon. By doing so, it simulates the market determination 

of timber harvest levels and log prices over the time horizon 

of the model. It was adapted for this study by including the 

stand-level OFS and intensive management regimes developed by Latta and Montgomery (in press). The model was 

constrained to meet targets for the extent of forest area that 

satisfies the OFS criteria described above within specified 

time limits. The model was solved repeatedly for a range 

of area targets beginning with 0 percent and increased in 

5-percentage increments until the model failed for two time 

limits (120 years and 95 years). It was also solved repeatedly for a range of time limits beginning with 120 years 

and decreased in 5-year decrements until the model failed 

for three area targets (20, 40, and 60 percent). 

The model provides a method for quantifying tradeoffs 

between the area and timing of alternative targets. For 

example, the analysis estimates that a target of 20 percent 

of private forest area with older forest structural attributes 

within 95 years could be achieved at an aggregate loss to 

forest landowners and lumber and plywood manufacturers 

of $294 million (in 1992 dollars). Doubling the area target 

from 20 to 40 percent could increase cost nearly four times; 

extending the time horizon by 25 years could reduce the 

cost fivefold. The estimated loss of $294 million is roughly 

equivalent to $17.6 million per year (constant dollars annualized at a real annual interest rate of 6 percent), or a 

one-time payment of $110 per adult Oregonian (at least 18 

years old in 2002), or an annual payment of $6.60 per adult 

Oregonian (ignoring population growth and constant dollars annualized at a real annual interest rate of 6 percent). 

It involves a long-run reduction in timber harvest of almost 

300 million board feet (1.7 million m3

) per year, on average, 

or almost 9 percent of our estimate of potential sustainable 

timber harvest on private land in western Oregon. 

The model also provides a means for estimating the 

minimum level of compensation that would be required 

to induce landowners to voluntarily undertake OFS management. For example, given our assumptions about log 

demand elasticity, the estimated loss of $294 million would 

be distributed as follows: Softwood lumber and plywood 

producers would bear a loss of $315 million. The present 

value of timber harvest on land that is used to meet the 

regional OFS target would decrease by $221 million, and 

the present value of timber harvest on land that remains 

in intensive timber production would increase by $241 

million. The landowners in the latter group would benefit 

from log price increases resulting from OFS management 

in the same way that private timber landowners benefited 

from log price increases in the 1990s resulting from federal 

timber harvest reductions for conservation of the northern 

spotted owl. An incentive program would cost at least as 

much as the reduction in timber value borne by those doing 

OFS management—$221 million, or an average of $427 

per hectare allocated to OFS management. 

IMPLEMENTING OLDER FOREST 

STRUCTURE MANAGEMENT 

The previous studies explore how to minimize the cost 

of achieving particular sustainable forestry goals related 

to structural diversity. They describe what may be possible, but do not provide guidance on how to implement 

the policies. That is, by what means can landowners most 

effectively and economically be induced to implement OFS 

management consistent with a particular objective? In the 

proposed research, alternative strategies for implementing 

OFS management will be explored. Although the policies 

to be evaluated and compared have not been determined, 

the following strategies are being considered.

Regulation

Currently, the main tool for regulating forest management 

on private land is the Oregon Forest Practices Act of 1971, as 

amended in August 2003. The act contributes indirectly to 

old-growth forest development on private land by restricting 

timber harvest in streamside buffers. In 1998, Oregonians 

rejected ballot measure 64 that would have effected major 

changes in the way forests in Oregon would be managed—requiring that at least 173 trees per hectare exceeding 
51

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

28 cm d.b.h. be left standing after timber harvest and that 

no tree exceeding 76 cm d.b.h. be harvested. There will 

likely be similar initiatives placed before Oregon voters in the 

future. For example, conservationists are promoting an Oregon 

Forest Restoration Initiative that bears a close resemblance 

to the 1998 ballot measure (Sustainable Forestry Project 

2004). The proposed research will use the timber supply 

model to simulate the effect and cost of potential regulatory approaches to sustainable forestry, ranging from minor 

modifications of the Oregon Forest Practices Act, such as 

extending streamside buffers, to the more comprehensive 

approach characterized by the rejected ballot measure and 

the proposed initiative. 

Direct Payments

There is growing recognition that further regulation of 

private land management activities may be counterproductive, stimulating antagonism and political backlash against 

conservation initiatives. As a result, conservationists are 

searching for alternatives to regulation that would encourage landowners to manage for old forest structure and 

other sustainability objectives voluntarily (e.g., Defenders 

of Wildlife 1993, Keystone Center 1995, Vickerman 1998). 

For example, a conservation incentives bill, HB 3564 (The 

Biodiversity Partnership, http://www.biodiversitypartners.

org/, December 2003), passed nearly unanimously in Oregon in 2001. This bill created a “flexible incentives fund” 

and directed state agencies to report to the legislature in 

2003 with recommendations for implementing or modifying incentive-based tools for conservation. The proposed 

research will use the timber supply model to evaluate the 

cost of achieving increases in OFS forest by using direct 

payments to landowners. Incentive programs involving 

direct payments will more likely be implemented if they 

cost taxpayers less. Several possible formulations of incentives payment programs that discriminate on the basis of 

a few site attributes will be designed and simulated in the 

model.

Certification

It may be possible to achieve some of the objectives of 

sustainable forestry through market mechanisms. Forest 

certification is a way to inform consumers about the practices 

used to produce the wood products they purchase. Evidence 

about whether price premiums for certified wood exist is 

inconclusive. If price premiums for certified wood do exist, 

then certification may provide landowners with incentives 

to use sustainable forest practices. We plan to simulate 

certification under a strict interpretation of the Forestry 

Stewardship Council Pacific Northwest guidelines (one of 

the more commonly used certification systems) and explore 

the question of what price premium would be required 

to induce different levels of participation in certification 

programs. We will be using certification rules developed 

by researchers with the Sustainable Forestry Partnership 

(2002) to predict the potential effects of certification on 

biodiversity in the Oregon Coast Range. We plan to evaluate 

outcomes with respect to OFS targets.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

The proposed research compares different approaches 

to implementing older forest structural management on 

private land in western Oregon on the basis of cost-effectiveness. Cost-effective conservation achieves conservation 

objectives with the smallest possible impact on other forest 

uses and the benefits they provide. Conservation strategies that minimize these impacts will be more acceptable 

to a society that values both wood and conservation than 

strategies that are perceived as ineffective and wasteful. 

The proposed analysis is not intended to develop a specific 

proposal for implementing a particular sustainable forestry 

objective. Rather it is intended to inform policymakers as 

they consider, in general, how to implement a range of 

sustainable forestry objectives. 

ENGLISH EQUIVALENTS

When you know: Multiply by: To find:

Hectares (ha) 2.47 Acres

Centimeters (cm) 0.394 Inches

Meters (m) 3.28 Feet

Cubic meters (m3

) 35.3 Cubic feet

LITERATURE CITED

Adams, D.M.; Schillinger, R.R.; Latta, G.; Van Nalts, 

A. 2002. Timber harvest projections for private land 

in western Oregon. Res. Contrib. 37. Corvallis, OR: 

Oregon State University, Forest Research Laboratory. 

44 p.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

52

Azuma, D.L.; Dunham, P.A.; Hiserote, B.A.; 

Veneklase, C.F. 2004. Timber resource statistics for 

western Oregon, 1999. Resour. Bull. PNW-RB-238. 

Rev. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 

42 p.

Bailey, J.D.; Tappeiner, J.C. 1998. Effects of thinning 

on structural development in 40- to 100-year-old 

Douglas-fir stands in western Oregon. Forest Ecology 

and Management. 108: 99–113.

Barbour, R.J.; Johnston, S.; Hayes, J.P.; Tucker, 

G.F. 1997. Simulated stand characteristics and 

wood product yields from Douglas-fir plantations 

managed for ecosystem objectives. Forest Ecology and 

Management. 91: 205–219.

Bullard, S.H.; Sherali, H.D.; Klemperer, W.D. 1985.

Estimating optimal thinning and rotation for 

mixed species timber stands using a random search 

algorithm. Forest Science. 31: 303–315.

Carey, A.B.; Curtis, R.O. 1996. Conservation 

of biodiversity: a useful paradigm for forest ecosystem management. Wildlife Society Bulletin. 

24(4): 610–620.

Cline, S.P. 1977. The characteristics and dynamics 

of snags in Douglas-fir forests of the Oregon Coast 

Range. Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University. 

106 p. M.S. thesis.

Defenders of Wildlife. 1993. Building economic 

incentives into the Endangered Species Act. 

Washington, DC. 123 p.

Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Team 

[FEMAT]. 1993. Forest ecosystem management: an 

ecological, economic, and social assessment. Portland, 

OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture; U.S. Department 

of the Interior [et al.]. [ca. 1100 p.].

Graham, R.L.L. 1981. Biomass dynamics of dead 

Douglas-fir and western hemlock boles in midelevation forests of the Cascade Range. Corvallis, OR: 

Oregon State University. 152 p. Ph.D. dissertation.

Hann, D.W.; Hester, A.S.; Olsen, C.L. 1997.

ORGANON user’s manual: ed. 6.0. Corvallis, 

OR: Forest Resources Department, Oregon State 

University. 135 p.

Hayes, J.P.; Chan, S.S.; Emmingham, W.H.; Tappeiner, 

J.C.; Kellogg, L.D.; Bailey, J.D. 1997. Wildlife 

response to thinning young forests in the Pacific 

Northwest. Journal of Forestry. 95(8): 28–33.

Healthy Forests Restoration Act of 2003; 117 Stat. 

1887; 16 USC 6501 (note).

Keystone Center. 1995. Dialogue on incentives to 

protect endangered species on private lands: final 

report. Keystone, CO. 47 p.

Latta, G.; Montgomery, C.A. [In press]. Minimizing 

the cost of stand level management for older forest 

structure in western Oregon. Western Journal of 

Applied Forestry.

McComb, W.C.; Spies, T.A.; Emmingham, W.H. 1993.

Douglas-fir forests: managing for timber and matureforest habitat. Journal of Forestry. 91(12): 31–42.

Montgomery, C.A.; Latta, G.S.; Adams, D.M. 2003.

The cost of achieving old-growth forest structure on 

private land in western Oregon. 39 p. Working paper. 

On file with: C.A. Montgomery, Department of Forest 

Resources, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 

97331.

Montreal Process Working Group. 1998. The Montreal 

Process. http://www.mpci.org. (August 2003).

Oregon Department of Forestry. 2001a. Northwest 

Oregon state forests management plan. http://www.

odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/management/state_forests/

sfplan/nwfmp01-final/nwfmp.asp. (February 2004).

Oregon Department of Forestry. 2001b. Southwest 

Oregon state forest management plan. http://www.

odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/management/state_forests/

sfplan/swfmp01-final/swfmp.asp. (February 2004).

Oregon Forest Practices Act of 1971 as amended 

in August 2003; ORS 527.610 to 527.770.

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forestry grants will fund Oregon researchers. http://

www.cof.orst.edu/org/sfp/news.html. (February 

2004).

Sustainable Forestry Project. 2004. Year 2004 Oregon 

forest restoration initiative. http://www.efn.org/

~forestry. (February 2004).
53

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

Tappeiner, J.C.; Huffman, D.; Marshall, D.; Spies, 

T.A.; Bailey, J.D. 1997. Density, ages, and growth 

rates in old-growth and young-growth forests in 

coastal Oregon. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 

27: 638–648.

Teensma, P.D.A.; Rienstra, J.T.; Yeiter, M.A. 1991. 

Preliminary reconstruction and analysis of change 

in forest stand age classes of the Oregon Coast Range 

from 1850 to 1940. Tech. Note TN OR-9. Portland, 

OR: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land 

Management. 11 p.

Vickerman, S. 1998. Stewardship incentives: 

conservation strategies for Oregon’s working 

landscape. Washington, DC: Defenders of Wildlife. 

138 p.

Wimberly, M.A.; Spies, T.A.; Long, C.J.; Whitlock, 

C. 2000. Simulating historical variability in the 

amount of old forests in the Oregon Coast Range. 

Conservation Biology. 14(1): 167–180. 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

54

ABSTRACT

Riparian forest management is an important element of 

sustainable forestry in the Pacific Northwest. Riparian harvest restrictions, such as those prescribed by Washington’s 

Forests and Fish Rules, result in unsustainable economics 

for owners of many small, family forests and may lead 

to unintended consequences such as increased land use 

conversion. In some cases, these harvest restrictions may 

also preclude the thinning of overstocked stands, which 

would otherwise enhance riparian habitat for fish. Alternate 

plans, specifically templates that are easy to implement, 

were identified in the regulations as a potential solution. 

An integrated approach is presented that combines forest structure and economic criteria to develop a riparian 

management template for overstocked stands in western 

Washington that provides improved riparian function for 

fish, sustainable economics, and easy implementation. 

Such an approach could be expanded to address riparian 

management issues throughout the region.

INTRODUCTION

RIPARIAN MANAGEMENT HAS BECOME A KEY 

element of sustainable forestry in the Pacific Northwest as a consequence of protecting endangered 

salmon runs. There is growing recognition by forest and 

fish biologists of the importance of ecological functions 

provided by forested riparian areas. This fact is reflected 

by the current forest practices regulations in both Oregon 

and Washington, as each of these states has placed significant new restrictions on streamside harvesting in the past 

decade. In Oregon, the 1994 update to the forest practices 

regulations requires riparian buffers of up to 100 ft on 

either side of a fish-bearing stream. In Washington, the 

Forests and Fish Rules that were made permanent in 2001 

require riparian buffers of up to 200 ft on either side of a 

fish-bearing stream. In both states the retention requirements in these riparian buffers are designed to produce 

diverse riparian forest structure, known as the desired 

future condition (DFC), that is similar to natural, mature, 

conifer-dominated riparian stands.

A potential problem with a broad, regulatory approach 

like this is that the resulting economic impacts and management limitations may in some cases lead to unintended 

consequences, such as land use conversion, that act as barriers to long-term forest sustainability. In both Washington 

and Oregon the potential for such cases was anticipated, 

and the regulations in these states include provisions for 

landowners to pursue “alternate plans” to avoid undesirable consequences. Washington’s rules further allow for 

templates to be established to facilitate common situations 

in which an alternate plan approach would be appropriate. 

In this paper we will demonstrate the importance of alternate plans and show how a template approach to riparian 

management can help achieve forest sustainability in the 

Pacific Northwest.

IMPORTANCE OF ALTERNATIVE 

PLAN TEMPLATES

In Oregon, alternate plans are intended to “identify opportunities and allow incentives for restoring 

or enhancing riparian management areas or streams” 

and to provide function while “affording a better 

9. A SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION FOR RIPARIAN MANAGEMENT

Kevin W. Zobrist, Kevin R. Gehringer, and Bruce R. Lippke1

1

 Economic analyst, postdoctoral researcher, and Director, respectively, 

Rural Technology Initiative, College of Forest Resources, University of 

Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195.

Current riparian harvest restrictions may result in unintended economic 

consequences for many family forest owners and can lead to conversion 

of forest land to other uses. (Photo courtesy of Kevin Zobrist and Bruce 

Lippke, University of Washington.)
55

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

opportunity to meet other objectives” (Oregon Administrative Rules 629-640-400). Similarly, the Washington 

rules identify alternate plans as opportunities to “meet 

riparian functions while requiring less costly regulatory 

prescriptions” and to “further meet riparian functions” 

(Revised Code of Washington [RCW] 76.13.110). These 

provisions suggest a twofold purpose of alternate plans: to 

provide economic relief to landowners and to provide better 

riparian function where there is opportunity to do so.

Economic relief by itself is an important reason to 

establish alternatives to the regulations, especially for 

smaller family-owned forests. Economic viability of forest 

management is a key component of long-term sustainable 

forestry on these ownerships given the pressures of competing, nonforest land uses. There is already concern over 

the rate at which family-owned forests are being converted 

to other uses, especially in western Washington (MacLean 

and Bolsinger 1997, WADNR 1998). This has significant 

implications for riparian habitat, as family ownerships tend 

to be located lower in the watersheds close to the urban 

fringe and often in or near riparian areas. 

Recognizing the important role of family-owned forests 

in meeting salmon recovery goals, one of the stated intentions of Washington state’s regulations is to maintain the 

economic viability of forestry on these ownerships and thus 

avoid conversion to “less desirable” uses (RCW 77.85.180). 

However, several studies have found significant and disproportionate economic impacts on smaller ownerships as 

a result of the riparian harvest restrictions (Perez-Garcia 

et al. 2001, Oneil 2003, Zobrist 2003, Zobrist and Lippke 

2003). Two programs were implemented in Washington to 

mitigate the economic impacts. The first is a forest excise 

tax credit, but in many cases the economic losses far exceed 

the available credit (WADOR 2002). The second is a costsharing effort known as the Forestry Riparian Easement 

Program, but this program has not had adequate funding to 

compensate for losses on a statewide scale (Zobrist 2003). 

Without other alternatives, the economic viability of many 

family ownerships may be left significantly diminished at 

a time when economic incentives may be needed to offset 

a widespread trend of conversion.

At the same time, there are cases where the regulations 

do not enable landowners to effectively address site-specific 

riparian management issues, and alternatives are needed to 

better meet riparian functions. A classic example west of the 

Cascade Range is that of young, overstocked stands. There 

are a number of plantations that have been established at 

high densities to maximize early growth with the intention 

that thinning would be done to reduce density as the stands 

developed. In the case of the Washington rules, however, 

such thinnings may no longer be allowed or no longer be 

economical in riparian areas (Zobrist 2003). 

In the absence of thinning in these high-density riparian 

stands, it is unlikely that the DFC will be achieved in the 

foreseeable future. Large conifers are a key characteristic 

of the DFC, as they are an important source of shade, large 

woody debris, and other biological and habitat functions. 

The development of large conifers is best achieved at low 

densities where individual tree growth is maximized. Indeed, studies have shown that natural old-growth stands 

developed at densities much lower than today’s managed 

forests (Poage and Tappeiner 2002, Tappeiner et al. 1997). If 

high densities are maintained in these overstocked stands, 

they may be subject to suppressed growth and instability 

(Wilson and Oliver 2000). In contrast, studies have shown 

that thinning in young forests can accelerate the development of desirable old-growth characteristics (Acker et al. 

1998, Bailey and Tappeiner 1998, Carey et al. 1999a, Garman et al. 2003, Muir et al. 2002, Tappeiner et al. 1997). 

This suggests that carefully designed thinning strategies in 

overstocked stands may better achieve the DFC.

Given the opportunities for greater economic viability 

and better achievement of the DFC, alternate plans can 

serve as an important tool for achieving sustainable riparian management. However, the widespread implementation 

of alternate plans is challenging. In Washington, alternate 

plans are subject to review by a multiagency, interdisciplinary (ID) team. The whole process can take up to a 

year before final approval. Given several field visits plus 

office time required by the ID team, the process is both 

costly and time-consuming for agencies that are working 

with limited resources. The process is also difficult for 

family forest landowners, as they must make a significant 

investment in time and consulting fees while working 

with limited access to the scientific resources necessary to 

develop and defend a successful plan. There have been no 

objective criteria established for assessing the adequacy of 

alternate plans in Washington, and given a lack of clear 

guidance and precedence, the goals for alternate plans are 

often not clearly addressed. Alternate plans are further 

limited in Washington by a requirement that their scope 

not exceed 5 years. A longer term approach is needed to 

achieve sustainable riparian management.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

56

Fortunately, many of these implementation issues were 

anticipated. The Washington rules recommend the establishment of templates to help streamline and simplify 

the process (Washington Administrative Code [WAC] 

222-12-0403). Established templates would have specific 

guidelines for “common situations,” such as overstocked 

stands, in which an alternate plan would be appropriate. 

With the alternate plan parameters preestablished in the 

templates, qualifying landowners would not have to develop 

their own plan from scratch, and an ID team review would 

not be required, leaving agency resources free to address 

the less common situations in which more customized 

plans are needed.

The authors, working in the Rural Technology Initiative 

Program in Washington state, have developed an integrated 

approach for developing alternate plan templates that can be 

used to help achieve sustainable management. We used the 

example of overstocked stands in western Washington, to 

show how this approach can be used to develop templates 

that provide better protection, greater economic viability, 

and straightforward implementation when accompanied by 

the assurances needed to make long-term commitments. 

Although this example has been established with the 

Washington rules in mind, it demonstrates an approach that 

could be used to achieve sustainable riparian management 

throughout the Pacific Northwest.

OVERSTOCKED STAND EXAMPLE 

FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON

A successful template for addressing overstocked stands 

in western Washington must include several key elements. 

It must meet the requirement of the law to “provide protection for public resources at least equal in overall effectiveness” (WAC 222-12-0401). It also must be economically 

viable, as well as simple and flexible for both agencies and 

landowners. One of the first challenges will be to establish 

objective criteria for assessing the level of resource protection provided by a potential template. The Washington rules 

have established DFC targets as the criteria for assessing 

resource protection on the west side (Forests and Fish Report 1999). The goal of an alternate plan would thus be to 

develop stand attributes that fall within a DFC target.

Working within the DFC target paradigm, an assessment procedure has been established for both specifying a 

DFC target and determining a stand’s acceptability relative 

to that target (Gehringer, in press). An advantage of this 

procedure is the ability to simultaneously consider multiple stand attributes. Three attributes—quadratic mean 

diameter, stand density, and average height—work well 

to discriminate between stand structures that are similar 

to or unlike the DFC. A DFC sample of data from representative mature, natural riparian stands can be plotted in 

three-dimensional space relative to those three attributes. 

A percentage acceptance level must then be chosen to 

determine how much of the DFC sample will qualify as 

the target. An acceptance level of 80 to 90 percent should 

usually be appropriate, since the target data were selected 

to represent the desired riparian forest conditions, and the 

acceptance level simply identifies outliers within the target 

data set, providing additional refinement. If the target data 

have a high uncertainty or are extremely variable, a lower 

acceptance level may be more appropriate. Figure 9.1 is 

an example of a three-dimensional target at a 90-percent 

acceptance level. The target is thus defined by the most 

likely 90 percent of the DFC sample observations (grey 

dots), with the remaining 10 percent rejected as unlikely, 

outlying values (black Xs). Once an appropriate target has 

been established, an observed stand whose attributes fall 

within that region is statistically indistinguishable from 

the DFC sample.

A way to assess the economic viability of a potential 

template is also needed. When using Faustmann’s ([1849] 

1995) approach for valuing the economic performance of 

forest management, two measures of performance should 

be considered. Forest value is the total value of a forest as 

an economic asset, which includes the economic value of 

both the currently standing timber and the land on which 

it stands given a target rate of return. Land expectation 

value (LEV), also called bare land value, is the component 

of forest value representing only the land. The LEV is the net 

present value of future forest costs and revenues exclusive 

of any existing timber. As LEV is most closely related to 

the long-term economic motivation to maintain the land as 

forest land rather than converting to other uses, it may be 

the most relevant single measure for assessing the economic 

viability of potential templates.

Now we have two objective criteria for assessing alternate plan templates: a multidimensional DFC target to 

assess riparian function and the LEV per hectare to assess 

economic viability. The next step is to generate a series of 

alternatives and simulate them on a representative stand. A 

good basis for these alternatives are the biodiversity pathways that were developed by the Washington Landscape 
57

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

Management Project (Carey et al. 1999b, Lippke et al. 1996). 

The biodiversity pathways used successive thinnings from 

below to accelerate the development of old-growth structure 

while providing a viable economic return. 

Templates will need to be site specific regarding productivity to account for differing stand development trajectories. 

Our example template will be for Douglas-fir site class 

II, where dominant trees would be expected to be 115 to 

135 ft tall at age 50 (King 1966). Based on the biodiversity 

pathway approach, we established a 100-year Douglas-fir 

rotation for site class II. This rotation included an early 

commercial thin from below to 180 trees per acre (445 

per hectare) at age 20, followed by a thin from below to 60 

trees per acre (148 per hectare) at age 50 and again to 25 

trees per acre (62 per hectare) at age 70. A regeneration 

harvest would be done at age 100. The timing of each entry 

was intended to coordinate with upland harvesting, which 

we assumed for site class II would be done on a 50-year 

rotation with an early commercial thin around age 20. 

Figure 9.1—A three-dimensional desired future condition target using stand density, quadratic mean diameter, and average height at a 

90-percent acceptance level.

Coordination with upland harvest is necessary to keep 

entries into narrow riparian zones economical.

Using this 100-year rotation, we created 18 example 

alternatives (table 9.1) that could be used for an overstocked 

stand template for site class II. These alternatives included 

variations of the 100-year rotation, such as doing no further 

entries after the second commercial thin (“60-hold”) or no 

further entries after the third commercial thin (“25-hold”). 

Three total buffer widths were used: 50 ft (15 m), 80 ft (24 

m), and 113 ft (34 m). These widths represent riparian zone 

boundaries for site class II under the regulations for western 

Washington. Each of the 18 alternatives sets aside the first 

25 ft (8 m) of the buffer as a bank stability zone for shade 

and streambank integrity. Prescriptions for this zone were 

either 60-hold, 25-hold, or no action.

All 18 alternatives were evaluated based on the DFC 

and LEV criteria. Figure 9.2 shows how each alternative 

performs relative to both criteria. For reference, the performance of no action within 170 ft (52 m) of the stream 
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

58

and “Option 2” under Washington’s Forests and Fish Rules 

were included in figure 9.2. The hollow bars show the percentage of time over the next 140 years that the resulting 

stand structure under each alternative would fall within 

the multidimensional DFC target when using quadratic 

mean diameter, stand density, and average height as the 

target variables and a 90-percent acceptance level. The 

dashed line represents the performance threshold established by the regulations, in this case Option 2 under the 

Forests and Fish Rules. Alternatives that meet or exceed 

this line provide DFC structure over time at least as much 

as the regulations. The solid bars show LEV per hectare 

at a 5-percent real rate of return. To be considered economically viable, LEV must be positive at this target rate of return, 

with higher LEV implying greater viability. The LEV was 

assessed across the portion of the stand within 170 ft (52 

m) of the stream, which represents the total riparian zone 

for site class II as defined by the Washington rules.

No action performs the worst relative to both criteria. 

Of the 18 example template alternatives, there is a wide 

range of performance, with some meeting neither of the 

Figure 9.2—Acceptability over time relative to the desired future condition target at 90-percent acceptance level and land expectation value 

(LEV) per hectare.

Table 9.1—Description of 18 example alternatives for an 

overstocked stand template

Alternative

Bank stability

 zone prescription

Remaining buffer

prescription

Total 

buffer width

1 No harvest 25-hold 113 ft (34 m)

2 No harvest 100-year 113 ft (34 m)

3 No harvest 25-hold 80 ft (24 m)

4 No harvest 100-year 80 ft (24 m)

5 No harvest 25-hold 50 ft (15 m)

6 No harvest 100-year 50 ft (15 m)

7 60-hold 25-hold 113 ft (34 m)

8 60-hold 100-year 113 ft (34 m)

9 60-hold 25-hold 80 ft (24 m)

10 60-hold 100-year 80 ft (24 m)

11 60-hold 25-hold 50 ft (15 m)

12 60-hold 100-year 50 ft (15 m)

13 25-hold 25-hold 113 ft (34 m)

14 25-hold 100-year 113 ft (34 m)

15 25-hold 25-hold 80 ft (24 m)

16 25-hold 100-year 80 ft (24 m)

17 25-hold 25-hold 50 ft (15 m)

18 25-hold 100-year 50 ft (15 m)

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

FFR Opt 2

No Action

Alt 1

Alt 2

Alt 3

Alt 4

Alt 5

Alt 6

Alt 7

Alt 8

Alt 9

Alt 10

Alt 11

Alt 12

Alt 13

Alt 14

Alt 15

Alt 16

Alt 17

Alt 18

Time within target at 90% acceptance (percent)

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Land expectation value (dollars per hectare)

More viable

Less viable

Not viable

Acceptability

LEV

Acceptability threshold
59

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

criteria thresholds, some meeting one but not the other, 

and others that meet both. Those that meet both thresholds 

(11 of our example alternatives) would be considered viable alternatives. Each of these 11 alternatives exceeds the 

regulations in providing both the desired future conditions 

and economic viability. This set may be further simplified 

to a couple of specific options. 

The best performing alternatives appear to be alternatives 

10, 12, 16, and 18. However, it may be useful to set some 

additional parameters to help identify the most desirable 

options. Large woody debris recruitment is perhaps the 

most important single function parameter. The volume of 

potentially available functional large woody debris (PAFLWD) over time can be predicted by using a large woody 

debris model (Cross 2002).2 Functional large woody debris 

is defined by minimum size criteria based on the size of 

the stream. Figure 9.3 shows the volume of PAFLWD for a 

small stream over time for each of the 11 viable alternatives. 

Alternative 10 provides the highest volume of PAFLWD 

over time of the four top-performing alternatives. However, 

also consider alternative 11, which provides the highest 

level of PAFLWD over time of all 11 viable alternatives. 

Even though alternative 11 did not rank as high as some 

other alternatives in terms of economic performance and 

the DFC target, it still met the minimum thresholds, and 

because of its PAFLWD performance it may be a desirable 

second option.

Given the additional parameter of PAFLWD, alternatives 

10 and 11 emerge as desirable alternatives. This leaves two 

template options, each with a tradeoff. Option A, based on 

alternative 10, requires a wider total buffer width of 80 ft 

(24 m) but allows a regeneration harvest outside of the bank 

stability zone at the end of the 100-year rotation. Option 

B, based on alternative 11, requires a narrower total buffer 

width of 50 ft (15 m), but calls for the 25-hold prescription 

outside of the bank stability zone. Both options call for the 

60-hold prescription within the bank stability zone.

Because it is important to include management flexibility, the thinning age targets could be expanded to allow a 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101 2121

Year

PAFLWD (m3 per 100 m of stream) 

Viable alternative

Alt 18

Alt 16

Alt 12

Alt 10

Alt 11

2

 See also Gehringer, K.R. [N.d.]. Estimating expected values for potentially available large woody debris. Manuscript in preparation.

Figure 9.3—Volume of potentially available functional large woody debris (PAFLWD) over time for viable alternatives.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

60

10-year window and thus provide some timing flexibility. A 

20-percent confidence band on either side of the thinning 

density targets would allow further operational flexibility. 

The resulting template for successive entries is shown in 

figure 9.4. The shaded region suggests the age and density 

range of overstocked stands that could benefit from the 

template based on an estimation of imminent competition 

mortality (Drew and Flewelling 1979).

The final product is an easy-to-follow set of management 

guidelines for achieving economic viability while enhancing 

riparian function for fish and allowing for flexibility and 

straightforward implementation. Landowners can select 

an appropriate template by site class, each of which would 

include a diagram similar to figure 9.4 with a corresponding explanation of the management options available for 

qualifying stands. The management guidelines should 

include strategies for minimizing things like sedimentation 

and soil compaction during thinning, such that long-term 

benefits to streams and fish are achieved with minimal 

short-term costs.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant problem with the current regulatory approach is unsustainable economics for small 

family-owned forests that adds increasing vulnerability to 

land use conversion and thus acts counter to the goal of 

sustainable forestry in the Pacific Northwest. At the same 

time, there are missed opportunities for better protection of 

aquatic resources, such as in the case of overstocked stands. 

Alternate plan templates may provide a sustainable solution. 

The example above demonstrates how, working within the 

framework of the rules, an integrated approach can be used 

to develop successful templates that provide better protection, sustainable economics, and easy implementation. The 

approach is long term in nature, and thus long-term assurances will be needed to motivate intermediate treatments. 

Such an approach is not limited to overstocked stands in 

western Washington, but could be employed to address 

riparian management issues throughout the region.

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

Stand density (trees/ha)

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Year

Density management target

Imminent competition mortality

Minimum density (Option B)

Recommended candidate stands

Figure 9.4—Density management guidelines for a site II overstocked-stand template.
61

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

METRIC EQUIVALENTS

When you know: Multiply by: To find:

Feet (ft) 0.3048 Meters

Inches (in) 2.54 Centimeters

Acres (ac) .405 Hectares

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1998. Development of old-growth structure and 

timber volume growth trends in maturing Douglas-fir 

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Bailey, J.D.; Tappeiner, J.C. 1998. Effects of thinning 

on structural development in 40- to 100-year-old 

Douglas-fir stands in western Oregon. Forest Ecology 

and Management. 108: 99–113.

Carey, A.B.; Kershner, J.; Biswell, B.; Dominguez 

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plants in managed and unmanaged forests. Wildlife 

Monographs. 142: 1–71. 

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Cross, J. 2002. Measuring the impact of harvest 

intensity on riparian forest functionality in terms of 

shade production and large woody debris recruitment 

potential: two models. Seattle, WA: University of 

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management: an alternative approach and its 

application to Douglas-fir plantations. Forest Science. 

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Faustmann, M. 1995. Calculation of the value which 

forest land and immature stands possess for forestry. 

Journal of Forest Economics. 1(1): 7–44. Reprint of 

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published in Allgemeine Forst- und Jagd-Zeitung 15, 

1849. 

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Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 57 p. 

Gehringer, K.R. [In press]. A nonparametric method for 

defining and using biologically based targets in forest 

management. In: Bevers, M.; Barrett, T.M., comps. 

Proceedings, systems analysis in forest resources ’03. 

Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

King, J.E. 1966. Site index curves for Douglas-fir in 

the Pacific Northwest. Weyerhaeuser Forestry Paper 

8. Centralia, WA: Weyerhaeuser Forestry Research 

Center. 49 p. 

Lippke, B.R.; Sessions, J.; Carey, A.B. 1996.

Economic analysis of forest landscape management 

alternatives: final report of the working group on the 

economic analysis of forest landscape management 

alternatives for the Washington Forest Landscape 

Management Project. Special Paper 21. Seattle, WA: 

CINTRAFOR, College of Forest Resources, University 

of Washington. 157 p.

MacLean, C.D.; Bolsinger, C.L. 1997. Urban expansion 

in the forests of the Puget Sound region. Resour. 

Bull. PNW-RB-225. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 17 p.

Muir, P.S.; Mattingly, R.L.; Tappeiner, J.C. [et al.]. 

2002. Managing for biodiversity in young Douglas-fir 

forests of western Oregon. Biological Science Report 

USGS/BRD/BSR-2002-0006. Corvallis, OR: U.S. 

Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem 

Science Center. 76 p. 

Oneil, E. 2003. Impacts of the forest and fish rules on 

small forest landowners in eastern Washington: some 

key consequences from riparian zone case study 

analysis. Seattle, WA: University of Washington. 

124 p. M.S. thesis.
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62

Perez-Garcia, J.M.; Edelson, J.; Zobrist, K. 2001. 

New proposed forest practices rules small business 

economic impact statement. Olympia, WA: 

Washington State Department of Natural Resources. 

38 p. 

Poage, N.J.; Tappeiner, J.C. 2002. Long-term patterns 

of diameter and basal area growth of old-growth 

Douglas-fir trees in western Oregon. Canadian 

Journal of Forest Research. 32(7): 1232–1243.

Tappeiner, J.C.; Huffman, D.; Marshall, D. [et 

al.]. 1997. Density, ages, and growth rates in oldgrowth and young-growth forests in coastal Oregon. 

Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 27: 638–648.

Washington Department of Natural Resources 

[WADNR]. 1998. Our changing nature: natural 

resource trends in Washington State. Olympia, WA. 

75 p.

Washington Department of Revenue [WADOR]. 2002.

Comparing the value of “Forests and Fish” leavetrees with the forest excise tax credit. Report to the 

Legislature. http://dor.wa.gov/Docs/Pubs/ForestTax/

SalmonTax.doc. (August 2004).

Wilson, J.S.; Oliver, C.D. 2000. Stability and density 

management in Douglas-fir plantations. Canadian 

Journal of Forest Resources. 30: 910–920.

Zobrist, K. 2003. Economic impacts of the forests and 

fish rules on small, NIPF landowners: ten western 

Washington case studies. RTI Working Paper 1, 

Revised. Seattle, WA: Rural Technology Initiative, 

College of Forest Resources, University of Washington. 

23 p.

Zobrist, K.; Lippke, B.R. 2003. Case studies examining 

the economic impacts of new forest practices 

regulations on NIPF landowners. In: Teeter, L.; 

Cashore, B.; Zhang, D., eds. Forest policy for private 

forestry: global and regional challenges. Wallingford, 

United Kingdom: CABI Publishing. Chapter 19.
63

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

10. WOOD-PLASTIC COMPOSITE EXTRUSION TECHNOLOGY FOR

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL COMMUNITIES

Vikram Yadama1 and Steve Shook2

ABSTRACT

High volumes of small-diameter trees could potentially be 

available for use from national forest fire-hazard thinnings. 

Mean lumber recovery from these logs, however, has been 

reported to be very low. Extruded wood-plastic composites, 

for such end uses as decking, molding, siding, and other 

pertinent structural and nonstructural components, is an 

emerging technology and process where low-quality, smalldiameter timber could be used to manufacture value-added 

products. However, to successfully penetrate the markets 

and replace traditionally used materials, it is critical to study 

and understand the markets and distribution channels 

of the existing products. The objectives of the following 

study are to compile and provide information necessary in 

developing business plans for starting a new wood-plastic 

composite industry or adding a wood-plastic composite 

manufacturing line to an existing operation. 

INTRODUCTION

UNEMPLOYMENT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY 

higher than the national average in many local 

communities in Washington and its neighboring 

states. These communities are looking for innovative ways to 

revitalize the local industry and promote economic growth. 

Large volumes of small-diameter trees could potentially 

be available from national forest fire-hazard thinnings. 

There is an opportunity to create forest-related jobs in 

the Pacific Northwest region through promoting a more 

environmentally conscious forest products industry that 

would use small-diameter timber, wood residues from 

other forest products industries, and wood waste created 

from other applications.

Previous studies on lumber recovery by grade on a variety 

of tree species indicate a large variation in mean lumber 

recovery and very low yields of higher grades or dimension 

lumber for structural use (LeVan-Green and Livingston 

2001, Lowell and Green 2001). The authors conclude that 

with new technology and emerging processes it is possible to direct this resource to a more appropriate end use. 

Extruded wood-plastic for decking, molding, siding, and 

other pertinent structural components, is one such new 

technology and emerging process where low-market-quality, 

small-diameter timber could be used to manufacture valueadded products. To successfully transfer the wood-plastic 

composites (WPC) technology to the local communities 

and have profitable industries, it is necessary to develop 

a sound business plan and marketing strategies. The following paper provides a brief background on wood-plastic 

composites and discusses an ongoing project that is aimed 

at providing information to develop essential elements of 

a business plan to start a WPC industry.

RAW MATERIALS, PROCESSING, 

AND PERFORMANCE OF 

WOOD-PLASTIC COMPOSITES

The primary components of a wood-plastic composite are 

wood and thermoplastic resins. Wood is commonly used 

in a particulate form, such as wood flour, in manufacturing 

WPCs. An extruded WPC is composed of 50 to 70 percent 

wood flour by weight. Presently, maple (Acer spp.), oak 

(Quercus spp.), and pine (Pinus spp.) are the most common 

wood flours used in WPC extrusion. Particle size distributions of the wood flours are generally from 10 to 120 mesh. 

High moisture in wood can be problematic in the manufacturing process, so wood flour is generally dried to 1- or 

2-percent moisture content prior to manufacturing WPCs. 

Thermoplastics are plastics that can be repeatedly melted 

upon reheating. Polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), 

and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) are the most commonly used 

thermoplastics for WPC manufacturing (Clemons 2002, 

Optimat Ltd. and MERL Ltd. 2003, Wolcott and Englund 

1999). These plastics are available in virgin or recycled forms 

and are preferred because they can be processed below 

1

 Assistant research professor/extension specialist, Wood Materials 

and Engineering Laboratory, Washington State University, P.O. Box 

641806, Pullman, WA 99164-1806.

2

 Assistant professor, Department of Forest Products, University of 

Idaho, P.O. Box 441132, Moscow, ID 83844-1132.
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

64

Figure 10.1—Demand for natural fiber and wood-plastic composites 

by end use in 2002 (revised from Morton et al. 2003). 

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Transportation

Other buildings

Infrastructure

Railings

Windows/doors

Decking

Demand (thousand tonnes)

Industrial/consumer

Siding

200 °C, the upper temperature at which wood degrades.

Besides wood and thermoplastic resins, many other 

additives are also used in WPC manufacturing to affect 

processing and performance (Clemons 2002, Optimat Ltd. 

and MERL Ltd. 2003, Wolcott and Englund 1999).

Wood-plastic composites are commonly manufactured 

by using a profile extrusion, injection molding, or compression molding processes (Clemons 2002, England and 

Rutherford 1999, Mapleston 2001, Optimat Ltd. and MERL 

Ltd. 2003, Wolcott and Englund 1999). Profile extrusion, the 

most common WPC manufacturing process, will be briefly 

discussed in this paper. It is a two-step process that involves 

compounding of the raw materials and then extruding the 

blended material through a die to achieve desired product 

profile. During the compounding process, the filler (wood 

flour) and the additives are fed and dispersed in the molten 

polymer to produce a homogeneous blend. This can be 

achieved by using a batch or a continuous process. Moisture 

is removed from the blend by vacuum venting during the 

compounding stage. The compounded material can either 

be immediately formed into an end product or made into 

pellets for processing at a later stage. A wood-plastic composite manufacturer can buy the wood composite pellets 

for extrusion to avoid blending their own material. 

Performance of WPC depends on the inherent properties of individual components of the formulation, the 

type of additives, the interactions between the individual 

components, the processing parameters, and the end use 

environment. Generally speaking, however, as the percentage of wood filler is increased, there is an increase in the 

stiffness of the thermoplastic composite. Owing to higher 

percentages of plastic, WPCs absorb less moisture and the 

rate of absorption is much slower than that of solid wood. 

On the other hand, the wood filler in WPCs makes them 

more thermally stable. These attributes make WPCs more 

dimensionally stable and resistant to fungal decay. 

WOOD-PLASTIC 

COMPOSITE MARKETS

The WPC market segment has been growing at an average of 25 percent a year since 1998 (Morton et al. 2003). 

The total North American and European market for natural fiber and wood-plastic composites reached 685 000 

tonnes (valued at $775 million in 2002), of which WPCs 

accounted for 590 000 tonnes or 87 percent of the total 

(valued at $695 million in 2002). Demand for natural fiber 

and WPCs is projected to increase 290 percent by 2010 

with an average annual growth rate of 14 percent over 8 

years (Morton et al. 2003). Demand for natural fiber and 

WPCs for several end use applications has been growing 

significantly (fig. 10.1). 

Currently, one of the primary uses for WPCs is for 

residential decking, which is approximately a $3 billion 

to $3.5 billion annual market in the United States (Smith 

2001). This market share (currently about 5 percent or 

4.7 billion board feet) is expected to grow at least by 15 

percent within a decade (Donnell 2000, Freedonia Group 

2002). Other WPC markets include a variety of interior 

and exterior building applications, such as molding and 

door and window components. Based on 2000 projections, 

a 50-percent growth has been predicted by year 2005 for 

wood plastic composites in building products. The phasing out of chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood 

is expected to increase demand for WPCs for residential 

decks, playground equipment, and fencing (Clemons 2002). 

Currently, most of the WPC material is used for decking, 

and the market is dominated by large manufacturers (Smith 

2001). More marketing research is needed to understand 

the acceptability of WPCs and challenges they face when 
65

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

used as a substitute for various nonstructural and structural products. These studies have to go hand in hand with 

development of new WPC formulations driven by the end 

use of a product.

PROPOSED STUDY

Wood fiber for WPC manufacturing can be milled from 

a variety of raw materials, such as underused species, forest 

debris, agriculture fibers, and waste wood. Thus, WPCs 

have a marketing advantage because the wood raw material could be relatively inexpensive and is environmentally 

friendly. Some of the advantages of manufacturing woodplastic composites are low capital investment, the flexibility 

to produce various products with few adjustments, use of 

low-quality timber, the ability to use waste from other secondary wood product industries, and a relatively low labor 

requirement. Owing to these factors, the wood fiber plastic 

industry is ideally suited for small forest-based rural communities. However, to entice investors into such technology 

and process and have a successful start-up company, it is 

necessary to have access to the current knowledge regarding this technology, identify distribution channels for the 

end products, and develop feasible business plans. The 

objectives of this ongoing project to transfer wood-plastic 

composite extrusion technology to local communities for 

their economic development are to:

1. Facilitate the development of business plans to stimulate the creation of a wood-plastic composites industry 

in the Pacific Northwest. 

2. Identify appropriate distribution channels to market 

end products. 

3. Conduct workshops to disseminate information to 

people involved with economic development.

APPROACH

Development of a Business Plan

All businesses need a business plan to succeed. It 

provides a means to evaluate all aspects of the business 

and maps out a plan for success. Without a business plan, 

lenders and investors have no means of evaluating the risks 

and potentials of the business. However, it is a difficult 

and burdensome process to research and combine all the 

necessary information into a working business plan. We 

intend to gather all the necessary information and create 

a database that can assist in analyzing business scenarios 

with respect to establishing a small wood-plastic composite 

manufacturing facility or adding a wood-plastic product line 

to existing manufacturing facilities. Typically, a business 

plan includes a statement of purpose, the organizational 

plan, the marketing plan, financial documents, and supporting documents. To help develop these components of 

a business plan, the database will address the following 

issues: 

• Types of end products, including identifying potential 

domestic and global markets

• Raw material requirements

• Equipment needs

• Drying capacity needs

• Capital investment

• Utility requirements and cost

• Preprocessing of materials (if needed)

• Technical information including species effect, plastic 

types, formulations, manufacturing parameters, and 

performance criteria and properties

• Environmental regulations and permitting

Compiling this information would assist with the 

development of products from raw materials to finished 

items. The USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest (PNW) 

Research Station and the Forest Products Laboratory (FPL) 

will assist in developing the format and structure for the 

business plan.

Distribution Channels

Once the potential domestic and global markets are 

identified, the second objective will be to develop sales 

and marketing strategies and a sales plan for entering the 

identified markets. To successfully do this, the following 

research questions should be addressed:

• What are the markets for existing products similar to 

the wood-plastic products?

• Where do buyers of wood-plastic products prefer to 

shop (wholesale and retail)?

• What are the currently available channels of distribution?

• Who are the potential distributors within the Pacific 

Northwest market?

• What are current means of promoting wood-plastic 

products?

• What are the ways a company can support the distributor’s distribution channel and sales program?

• How are wood-plastic products handled, inventoried, 

and transported within the distribution channel?
UNDERSTANDING KEY ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE WOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

66

• What level of inventory of wood-plastic products 

is necessary within the distribution channel, and 

is there a seasonality effect with regard to inventory 

and product sales?

• What nontraditional distribution channels exist that 

could potentially be used to market and sell the woodplastic products (e-commerce, trade shows, etc.)?

Answers to these questions will aid in reaching the 

customers for the end products and retaining these target 

markets. Market and customer studies, specifically targeting 

products such as public playground equipment and roof 

shingles, will be carried out to answer some of the above 

questions. Past marketing studies on other products, such 

as decking, will be tapped into to compile much of this 

information in the database. The results of studies could 

provide an understanding of the cultures within those 

markets and the general perception of the distributors and 

buyers concerning building components manufactured from 

wood plastic composites. We hope to answer questions 

regarding the buying habits of the market, preferences of 

buyers, distributor and buyer perceptions, product acceptance, and channels of distribution. Studies will be limited 

to the Western United States and more specifically to the 

Pacific Northwest region. The findings are intended to help 

a start-up company or an existing company that is interested 

in diversifying its product line with market identification 

and development of market strategies. 

WORKSHOPS TO 

DISSEMINATE INFORMATION

After compiling the information, it is necessary to disseminate the information to people who would be influential in persuading small businesses in communities in the 

region to invest in WCP manufacturing. These individuals 

may include:

• Community economic development foundations

• Economic development consultants

• Financial institutions

• Venture capital firms and angel investors

• Local and regional politicians

• Current industrialists, such as sawmill owners and 

furniture manufacturers

• State-level natural resources organizations (Washington Department of Natural Resources, Oregon Department of Forestry, Idaho Department of Lands) 

• Trade commissions (for global marketing) 

• Architects and builders (to influence the use of products in home construction)

Two 1-day workshops will be organized to present the 

results of this study. USDA Forest Service PNW Research 

Station and FPL will assist in developing workshop format 

and organization. 

CONCLUSION

Currently, more than 60 companies are producing natural fiber and wood-plastic composite products in North 

America (Morton et al. 2003). However, 70 percent of the 

total industry sales have been accounted for by the top 10 

producers. Growth of wood-plastic composites for building 

products is expected to be quite high through 2010. A startup company would be successful if it can demonstrate that 

a product that has already been accepted by customers can 

be made better with wood-plastic composites. The intent of 

the proposed study is to compile and provide information 

necessary in developing business plans for starting a new 

WPC industry or adding a WCP manufacturing line to an 

existing operation. 

EQUIVALENTS

When you know: Multiply by: To find:

Degrees Celsius (°C) 1.8 °C + 32 Degrees 

 Fahrenheit

Board feet (lumber) 0.0024 Cubic meters 

 (lumber)

Tonnes 1.102 Tons

LITERATURE CITED

Clemons, C. 2002. Wood-plastic composites in the 

United States: the interfacing of two industries. Forest 

Products Journal. 52(6): 10–18.

Donnell, R. 2000. Looks like decking. Timber 

Processing. November. 3 p.

England, A.; Rutherford, R. 1999. Strandex: a woodthermoplastic composite. In: Wolcott, M.; Tichy, R.J.; 

Bender, D.A., eds. Proceedings, 33rd international 

particleboard/composite materials symposium. 

Pullman, WA: Washington State University: 127–132.

Freedonia Group, Inc. 2002. Industry study 1511: wood 

and competitive decking. Cleveland, OH. 247 p.
67

SECTION C: SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY OPTIONS

LeVan-Green, S.L.; Livingston, J. 2001. Exploring the 

uses for small-diameter trees. Forest Products Journal. 

51(9): 10–21.

Lowell, E.C.; Green, D.W. 2001. Lumber recovery 

from small-diameter ponderosa pine from Flagstaff, 

Arizona. Proceedings RMRS-P-22. Fort Collins, CO: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Mapleston, P. 2001. Additive suppliers turn their eyes to 

wood/plastic composites. Modern Plastics. August: 52.

Morton, J.; Quarmley, J.; Rossi, L. 2003. Current and 

emerging applications for natural and woodfiberplastic composites. In: Proceedings, 7th international 

conference on woodfiber-plastic composites. Madison, 

WI: Forest Products Society: 3–6.

Optimat Ltd. and MERL Ltd. 2003. Wood plastic 

composites study–technologies and UK market 

opportunities. Research Report. Banbury, Oxon, 

United Kingdom: The Waste and Resources Action 

Programme. 82 p.

Smith, P.M. 2001. U.S. woodfiber-plastic composite 

decking market. In: Proceedings, 6th international 

conference on woodfiber-plastic composites. Madison, 

WI: Forest Products Society: 13–17.

Wolcott, M.P.; Englund, K. 1999. A technology review 

of wood-plastic composites. In: Wolcott, M.; Tichy, 

R.J.; Bender, D.A., eds. Proceedings, 33rd international 

particleboard/composite materials symposium. 

Pullman, WA: Washington State University: 103–111.

Pacific Northwest Research Station

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