### Multilateralism in Southeast Asia

Author: Michael W. Everett,
Senior Fellow

Note:

Summary

About the Symposium

A Southeast Asian Perspective

Economically, Southeast Asia is coming of age.
ASEAN countries wish to map their own futures without
significant outside interference. Despite  having neither a
charter nor economic clout, ASEAN members have
managed to maintain regional peace and security.

However, these five apprehensions do exist:

- The Taiwan/China dispute
- Conventional arms proliferation
- The fragile Cambodian peace
- The Spratly Islands and Chinese claims 
          in the South China Sea
- The division of KoreaASEAN countries are skeptical of using conflict
resolution models such as OSCE, EC, and WEU from
other areas of the world to reduce these apprehensions 
among nations whose cultures differ from those
of Europe. They are more likely to rely upon ARF even
though it is in its nascent, untested stage a breakthrough
for ASEAN countries towards multilateral approaches to
resolving disputes and addressing security matters.The general Southeast Asian perspectives on the United
States, China, Russia and Japan follow.The United States should continue safeguarding
          the regional balance of power and ensuring open
          trade. Because of China's growing military and
          economic power, ASEAN prefers that the United
          States remain engaged as a counterbalance to
          China. The United States will most likely continue
          as the number one outsider to ASEAN for trade
          and military power.China is not seen as a threat.  There are concerns
          about China's recent actions in the Spratly Islands,
          which could help motivate a dialogue with the
          Chinese and develop stronger security institutions
          in the region.  Southeast Asian nations appreciate
          the enormous challenge China faces as masses of
          its citizens migrate from rural areas to the cities
          and the economy struggles to create 270 million
          jobs in the next 10 years just to sustain the
          employment rate at its current level.Russia is viewed as a declining threat and a
          waning force in the region. Russia's absence as a
          player in Southeast Asia has had a profound
          impact on the regional security environment.
          Relationships built during the Cold War period are
          currently being restructured due to the absence of
          Soviet influence in the region.Japan is seen as a benign military power, unable
          to counter China. Japan is expected to assume a
          more assertive economic role and continue in a
          passive politico-military role.Views from Other NationsThe Australians view themselves as an  integral part
of Southeast Asia, which accounts for 14% of their trade.
Given the probability of increasing investments and trade
in the region, Australia's strategy is to maintain current
alliances with major powers and enhance multilateral
actions with ASEAN countries through the "Five Power
Defense Arrangements," APEC and ARF.China expects intensified competition in the region. Its
main interests are  for Asian nations to focus on economic
development quickly, and for China to be recognized as a
great Asian power to be treated with respect and
deference.India's long experiment with self-sufficient socialism
and its friendly relationship with the Soviet Union have
isolated it from the region. India's interests in Southeast
Asia include becoming trading  partners  with  Southeast
Asian  countries and ensuring a balanced regional power structure.
Reflecting these interests, India has five major concerns:the upgrading of Southeast Asian military forces
          due to modernization;the danger that ASEAN expects too much from
          multilateralism;the possible violent disruption of the region
          Islamic fundamentalism could cause;the impact on the balance of power from the
          relationship between cash-rich/technology poor
          China and cash-poor/technology-rich Russia;the safe downsizing of the ICBMs left from the
          Cold War.Japan does not see "troubled" or "failed" states, or
state-to-state conflicts as major issues in Southeast Asia,
but regards sovereignty of each state as the most important
factor. Japanese regional interests are twofold:stability in Southeast Asia,maritime safety of the sea lines of
           communications.Recent shifts of Japanese investments from the United
States and western countries into the Southeast Asian
region are indicative of Japanese economic strategy.
Moreover, surveys of Japanese corporate executives reveal
that 63% view Southeast Asia as the primary investment
priority in the next 10 years.  Another 14% see Southeast
Asia as their secondary priority. If these investments are
successful, forecasters predict Japan will have a trillion-
dollar trade surplus by the end of the next decade.ASEAN Free Trade Area, APEC, and the WTO: How
They Fit TogetherThe ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) is an
informal agreement designed to integrate ASEAN countries
into the global economy.  Unlike the North American Free
Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which is meticulously
detailed with volumes of contingencies, AFTA is sparsely
documented and quite flexibly constructed. AFTA's motto
is to agree first, negotiate later. Consequently, AFTA is
not  all-encompassing, but  loosely worded and open
ended.  The goal is to increase the attractiveness of the
ASEAN countries as potential sites for investments. There
are concerns regarding the recent signing of the AFTA,
some countries feeling that they should be allowed to
prosper at their own pace and that the 2020 target date
established in the agreement may be too fast a pace.The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
forum began as a platform for discussion in 1989, bringing
together countries with different perceptions and desires.
Gradually, APEC has acquired the trappings of a formal
organization, and is now committed to free trade in the
Pacific by 2020.The commonalities among AFTA, APEC and the
World Trade Organization are:they support open regionalism;they are instruments of preventive
diplomacy;they can complement multilateral efforts or
provide alternatives to multilateralism.A Look Toward the FutureAsia's central banks hold 42% of the world's capital
reserves.  If the present trend continues, by 2005 these
banks could hold nearly 50% of those reserves.
Furthermore, forecasters expect economic growth of the
ASEAN countries to remain at or continue climbing within
the 7-12% per annum range. Indonesia and Thailand might
enter the top 15 in world trade by the year 2010.Regional integration will be difficult to achieve among
diverse countries when income and economic levels
diverge so widely. Significant structural adjustments will
be necessary to achieve any modicum of integration. 
Because of the diversity among Southeast Asian countries,
it is difficult to encourage palatable multilateral initiatives
for all counties. Because ASEAN has decreased trade
barriers and committed to open regionalism, there is no
need for formal preferential trade agreements or
institutional frameworks. Their preference is to continue
the reciprocal trade practices that have brought prosperity
to the region.  This arrangement allows each country to
progress at its own pace without resorting to imposed time
lines.More Asian countries have been entering the world
economy since the demise of the Cold War. The future
shift of the center of gravity in the world economy will be
toward Asia.  A "prosperity crescent" from Beijing to
Bangkok to Bombay will be the new focus of economic
growth and prosperity.Although the prosperity in the Southeast Asian region
is grounds for confidence in the future, the real test of the
robustness of these emerging economies will be their
performance during big shocks in the world economy, such
as recession, depression, civil strife and military conflict.As Southeast Asian nations prosper, the transition to
new leadership is likely to raise concerns. New leaders
would probably not share the same vision as those leaders
who began the trend toward economic growth because they
will not have shared the same experiences. Therefore, they
could cause their countries to build economic barriers or
regress to socialism, either of which could be detrimental
to progress.
- The United States should continue safeguarding
          the regional balance of power and ensuring open
          trade. Because of China's growing military and
          economic power, ASEAN prefers that the United
          States remain engaged as a counterbalance to
          China. The United States will most likely continue
          as the number one outsider to ASEAN for trade
          and military power.
- China is not seen as a threat.  There are concerns
          about China's recent actions in the Spratly Islands,
          which could help motivate a dialogue with the
          Chinese and develop stronger security institutions
          in the region.  Southeast Asian nations appreciate
          the enormous challenge China faces as masses of
          its citizens migrate from rural areas to the cities
          and the economy struggles to create 270 million
          jobs in the next 10 years just to sustain the
          employment rate at its current level.
- Russia is viewed as a declining threat and a
          waning force in the region. Russia's absence as a
          player in Southeast Asia has had a profound
          impact on the regional security environment.
          Relationships built during the Cold War period are
          currently being restructured due to the absence of
          Soviet influence in the region.
- Japan is seen as a benign military power, unable
          to counter China. Japan is expected to assume a
          more assertive economic role and continue in a
          passive politico-military role.
- the upgrading of Southeast Asian military forces
          due to modernization;
- the danger that ASEAN expects too much from
          multilateralism;
- the possible violent disruption of the region
          Islamic fundamentalism could cause;
- the impact on the balance of power from the
          relationship between cash-rich/technology poor
          China and cash-poor/technology-rich Russia;
- the safe downsizing of the ICBMs left from the
          Cold War.
- stability in Southeast Asia,
- maritime safety of the sea lines of
           communications.
- they support open regionalism;
- they are instruments of preventive
diplomacy;
- they can complement multilateral efforts or
provide alternatives to multilateralism.