Testimony

Before the Special Committee on Aging, 

U.S. Senate

United States Government Accountability Office

GAO

For Release on Delivery 

Expected at 10:00 a.m. EDT 

Wednesday, April 27, 2005 REDEFINING 

RETIREMENT 

Options for Older 

Americans 

Statement of Barbara D. Bovbjerg, Director 

Education, Workforce, and Income Security 

GAO-05-620T 
What GAO Found

United States Government Accountability Office

Why GAO Did This Study

Highlights

Accountability Integrity Reliability

www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-620T.

To view the full product, including the scope 

and methodology, click on the link above. 

For more information, contact Barbara 

Bovbjerg at (202) 512-7215 or 

bovbjergb@gao.gov. 

Highlights of GAO-05-620T, a report to 

Special Committee on Aging, U.S. Senate 

April 27, 2005

REDEFINING RETIREMENT 

Options for Older Americans 

The aging of the baby boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964), 

increased life expectancy, and falling fertility rates pose serious challenges 

for our nation. These trends will affect the size and productivity of the U.S. 

labor force and its output and will have real and important impacts on 

employers and the economy. With the impending retirement of the baby 

boom generation, employers face the loss of many experienced workers and 

possibly skill gaps in certain occupations. This could have adverse effects on 

productivity and economic growth. Furthermore, the expected increasing 

ratio of the elderly to those of working ages will place added pressure on 

Social Security and Medicare, both of which face long-term financial 

problems. Increasing the labor force by encouraging Americans to work 

longer may be one part of solutions to these problems. 

Although some people can benefit by remaining in the labor force at later 

ages, others may be unable or unwilling to do so. For those who are able, 

there are many factors that influence their choices. These include the 

eligibility rules of both employer pension plans and Social Security, an 

individual’s health status, the need for health insurance, personal preference, 

and the employment status of a spouse. The availability of suitable 

employment, including part-time work or flexible work arrangements, may 

also affect the retirement and employment choices of older workers. 

Labor Force Participation Rate at Older Ages is Projected to Rise Slightly 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Labor force participation rate

Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey, 

http://www.bls.gov/data/home.htm.

Women 65+ Men 65+ Women 55-64 Men 55-64

In the 21st century our nation faces 

a growing fiscal imbalance. A 

demographic shift will begin to 

affect the federal budget in 2008 as 

the first baby boomers become 

eligible for Social Security benefits. 

This shift will increase as spending 

for federal health and retirement 

programs swells. Long-term 

commitments for these and other 

federal programs will drive a 

massive imbalance between 

spending and revenues that cannot 

be eliminated without tough 

choices and significant policy 

changes. Continued economic 

growth is critical and will help to 

ease the burden, but the projected 

fiscal gap is so great that it is 

unrealistic to expect that we will 

grow our way out of the problem. 

Early action to change existing 

programs and policies would yield 

the highest fiscal dividends and 

provide a longer period for 

prospective beneficiaries to make 

adjustments in their own planning. 

One of the potential policy changes 

is assisting older workers who 

want to stay in the workforce past 

retirement age. 

The Chairman and Ranking 

Member of the Senate Special 

Committee on Aging asked GAO to 

discuss demographic and labor 

force trends and the economic and 

fiscal need to increase labor force 

participation among older workers. 

This testimony will address those 

factors making it important to 

encourage those who want to work 

to continue doing so, as well as 

factors affecting older Americans' 

employment decisions.
Page 1 GAO-05-620T 

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee: 

Slow labor force growth coupled with an aging population pose serious 

economic and fiscal challenges to America in the 21st century. Policies 

that encourage those older workers who want to work to continue doing 

so or that remove work disincentives for this age group could help 

mitigate the problem. I am pleased to be here today to discuss the 

importance of older workers to the labor force, the economy, and the 

future health of U.S. retirement programs. 

Today I would like to look at older workers from two perspectives, 

considering first those factors making it important to encourage those who 

want to work to continue doing so and second factors affecting older 

Americans’ employment decisions. GAO has conducted several studies 

related to older worker issues, including demographic trends and their 

effects on employers, older workers, the federal budget, and the economy.1

My statement is based on some of this prior GAO work. We are currently 

working on a study in greater depth of older workers’ perspectives 

concerning employment and retirement options. We expect to publish a 

report in the fall. 

In summary, the aging of the baby boom generation (those born between 

1946 and 1964), increased life expectancy, and falling fertility rates pose 

serious challenges for our nation. These trends will affect the size and 

productivity of the U.S. labor force and its output and will have real and 

important impacts on employers and the economy. With the impending 

retirement of the baby boom generation, employers face the loss of many 

experienced workers and possibly skill gaps in certain occupations. This 

could have adverse effects on productivity and economic growth. 

Furthermore, the expected increasing ratio of the elderly to those of 

working ages will place added pressure on Social Security and Medicare, 

 1

For further information on older worker issues please see the following reports and 

testimonies: GAO, Older Workers: Demographic Trends Pose Challenges for Employers 

and Workers, GAO-02-85 (Washington, D.C.: Nov.16, 2001); Highlights of a GAO Forum: 

Workforce Challenges and Opportunities For the 21st Century--Changing Labor Force 

Dynamics and the Role of Government Policies , GAO-04-845SP (Washington, D.C.: Jun.1, 

2004); Retiree Health Insurance: Erosion in Employer-Based Health Benefits for Early 

Retirees, GAO/HEHS-97-150 (Washington, D.C.: Jul.11, 1997); Private Health Insurance: 

Declining Employer Coverage May Affect Access for 55 to 64 Year Olds, 

GAO/HEHS-98-133 (Washington, D.C.: Jun.1, 1998); Older Workers: Policies of Other 

Nations to Increase Labor Force Participation, GAO-03-307 (Washington, D.C.: Feb.13, 

2003). 
Page 2 GAO-05-620T 

both of which face long-term financial problems. Increasing the labor 

force by encouraging Americans to work longer may be one part of 

solutions to these problems. 

Encouraging Americans to work longer, if they are able to, requires first 

understanding the factors influencing that decision. These include 

retirement income, the availability of health insurance, an individual’s 

health status, and the employment status of a spouse. The availability of 

suitable employment, including part-time work or flexible work 

arrangements, also may affect older workers’ choices regarding retirement 

and employment. Given these options, federal policymakers may want to 

consider creating incentives for older Americans who are able to work to 

remain in the workforce and ensuring that federal policies do not 

discourage the choice to work longer. Doing so could enhance future 

supplies of skilled workers, bolster economic growth, and help many 

people secure adequate retirement income. 

In the 21st century the nation faces a growing fiscal imbalance. A 

demographic shift will begin to affect the federal budget in 2008 as the first 

baby boomers become eligible for Social Security benefits. This shift will 

increase as spending for federal health and retirement programs swells. 

Long-term commitments for these and other federal programs will drive a 

massive imbalance between spending and revenues that cannot be 

eliminated without tough choices and significant policy changes. Over the 

past several years, GAO has called attention to this problem. Long-term 

budget simulations by GAO, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and 

others illustrate the growing fiscal imbalance. (See fig. 1.) 

Background 
Page 3 GAO-05-620T 

Figure 1: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid Spending as a Percent of GDP 

Note: Social Security and Medicare projections are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 

2005 Trustees’ Reports. Medicaid projections are based on CBO’s January 2005 short-term 

Medicaid estimates and CBO’s December 2003 long-term Medicaid projections under midrange 

assumptions. 

Continued economic growth is critical to addressing this challenge and 

will help to ease the burden, but the projected fiscal gap is so great that it 

is unrealistic to expect that the United States will grow its way out of the 

problem. Early action to change existing programs and policies would 

yield the highest fiscal dividends and provide a longer period for 

prospective beneficiaries to make adjustments in their own planning. One 

of the potential policy changes that could address both the demographic 

shift and the need for robust economic growth is assisting older workers 

who want to stay in the workforce past retirement age. 

These demographic problems are not unique to the United States. Other 

countries are also confronting the economic and labor force consequences 

of aging populations. In fact, the challenges arising from these 

demographic shifts alone will be less pronounced in the United States than 

in several other high-income nations. In prior work that we conducted for 

this committee, we found that Sweden, Japan, and the United Kingdom 

had enacted retirement policy reforms that included incentives for older 

Percent of GDP

Source: GAO analysis based on data from the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration, Office of the Actuary, Centers

for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and the Congressional Budget Office.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Medicare

Medicaid

Social Security
Page 4 GAO-05-620T 

workers to extend their working lives.2 At the same time, these countries 

were also seeking policies that would reduce barriers to employment for 

older workers. 

In the 21st century, older Americans are expected to represent a growing 

share of the population, have a longer life expectancy than previous 

generations and spend more years in retirement. The baby boom 

generation is fast approaching retirement age; the oldest baby boomers 

will start to turn 65 in 2011, just 6 years from now. In addition, life 

expectancy is increasing. The average life expectancy at age 65 for men 

has increased from just over 13 years in 1970 to 16 years in 2005, and is 

projected to increase to 17 years by 2020. Women have experienced a 

similar rise--from 17 years in 1970 to over 19 years in 2005. Women’s life 

expectancy at age 65 is projected to be 20 years by 2020. (See fig. 2.) 

 2

 GAO, Older Workers: Policies of Other Nations to Increase Labor Force Participation, 

GAO-03-307 (Washington, D.C.: Feb.13, 2003). 

Economic and 

Demographic Trends 

Call For Policies 

Encouraging Longer 

Working Lives 
Page 5 GAO-05-620T 

Figure 2: Life Expectancy Has Risen Steadily and May Continue to Do So 

As a consequence of life expectancy increases, individuals are generally 

spending more years in retirement. The average male worker spent 18 

years in retirement in 2003, up from less than 12 years in 1950. 

A lower fertility rate is the other principal factor underlying the growth in 

the elderly’s share of the population. In the 1960s, the fertility rate was an 

average of three children per woman.3

 Since the 1970s, the fertility rate has 

hovered around two children per woman. This decline in the fertility rate 

is a major factor in the slowing growth of the labor force over the last 

decade, a trend that is expected to continue. By 2025 labor force growth is 

expected to be less than a fifth of what it is today, as shown in figure 3. 

 3

The fertility rate is defined as the total number of children born per 1000 women aged 15 

to 44 years. 

Years

Source: Felicitie C. Bell and Michael L. Miller, “Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900-2100,” Actuarial Study 

No. 116, http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as116/as116TOC.html.

Men

Women

0

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Page 6 GAO-05-620T 

Figure 3: U.S. Labor Force Growth Will Continue to Decline 

Note: Percentage change is calculated as a centered 5-year moving average of projections based on 

the intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees’ Reports. 

As a result of these trends, the share of the population aged 65 and older is 

projected to increase from 12 percent in 2000 to almost 20 percent in 2030. 

These developments will lead to significant changes in the elderly 

dependency ratio--the estimated proportion of people aged 65 and over to 

those of working age. In 1950, there was one elderly person for every 7 

workers. The ratio increased to 1 to 5 in 2000 and is projected to rise to 1 

to 3 by 2050. (See fig. 4.) 

0

1

2

3

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Percentage change (5-year moving average)

Source: GAO analysis of data from the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration.
Page 7 GAO-05-620T 

Figure 4: U.S. Elderly Dependency Ratio Has Increased Substantially 

Note: The elderly dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 65 years or over to the 

population aged 15 to 64. 

These demographic developments have real implications for the nation’s 

economy. If labor force growth continues to decline as projected, 

relatively fewer workers will be available to produce goods and services. 

Without a major increase in productivity or higher than projected 

immigration, low labor force growth will lead to slower growth in the 

economy and to slower growth of federal revenues. This in turn will 

accentuate the overall pressure on the federal budget.4

 Another concern is 

the possible loss of many experienced workers as the baby boomers retire. 

This could create gaps in skilled worker and managerial occupations, 

leading to further adverse effects on productivity and economic growth. 

Though long-term trends in labor force growth present significant 

challenges, there is some reason for optimism. In recent years, the labor 

 4

For more information on long-term fiscal and economic challenges, please see GAO, 

Social Security: Long-Term Challenges Warrant Early Action, GAO-05-303T (Washington, 

D.C.: Feb. 3, 2005); Social Security Reform: Early Action Would be Prudent, GAO-05-397T

(Washington, D.C.: Mar. 9, 2005); and GAO’s Web site on long-term fiscal challenges: 

http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/longterm/. 

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1950 1980 2000 2030 2050

Elderly dependency ratio (in percent)

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population 

Prospects: 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: 2001 Revision. Data for 2030-2050 are projected.
Page 8 GAO-05-620T 

force participation rate of men over age 55 has increased, and it is 

projected to continue to increase in the future. After hitting a low point of 

approximately 65 percent in 1994, the rate for this group rose to more than 

69 percent in 2002, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects it will 

be almost 70 percent in 2012. For men 65 and older, the rate also 

increased, to about 19 percent, and is projected to rise to nearly 21 percent 

by 2012. Similarly, the labor force participation rate of women over 55 has 

continued to increase. For women 55 to 64, the rate rose to more than 56 

percent by 2004 and is projected to grow to over 60 percent by 2012. (See 

fig. 5.) 

Figure 5: Labor Force Participation at Older Ages Is Projected to Rise Slightly 

These recent increases in labor force participation by older workers are 

encouraging. If Americans increase the number of years they work it could 

ease pressure on government retirement programs by increasing revenues 

to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds. In addition, individuals 

can significantly improve their standard of living in retirement. By 

remaining in the labor force, workers continue to earn income and delay 

drawing down assets such as pensions and personal savings, resulting in a 

0

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80

90

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Labor force participation rate

Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey, 

http://www.bls.gov/data/home.htm.

Women 65+

Men 65+

Women 55-64

Men 55-64
Page 9 GAO-05-620T 

shorter period over which they have to budget their resources. Some 

researchers have found that delaying retirement can substantially increase 

annual income in retirement.5

 For example, they found that postponing 

retirement from age 55 to age 65 could nearly double real annual income at 

age 75. 

Although some people can benefit by remaining in the labor force at later 

ages, others may be unable or unwilling to do so. For those who are able, 

there are many factors that influence their choices. These include the 

eligibility rules of both employer pension plans and Social Security, an 

individual’s health status, the need for health insurance, personal 

preference, and the employment status of a spouse. The availability of 

suitable employment, including part-time work or flexible work 

arrangements, may also affect the retirement and employment choices of 

older workers. 

Depending on the eligibility rules and schedule of benefits, it can 

sometimes be more advantageous for workers to retire than to continue 

employment. The eligibility age for full Social Security benefits is currently 

65 years and 6 months and rising, with reduced benefits available at age 

62.6

 Data from 2002 show that a majority of people (56.1 percent) elect to 

start benefits at age 62.7

 Another important retirement incentive is 

eligibility for employer-provided pension benefits. In the United States, 

less than half of the labor force has some type of employer-provided 

pension coverage. In some cases the rules governing these plans create 

incentives to retire, even for those who may prefer to continue working. 

Health status and occupation are other key factors that influence the 

decision to work at older ages. As people age, they tend to encounter more 

 5

Butrica, Johnson, Smith, and Steuerle, “Does Work Pay at Older Ages?” Urban Institute. 

December 2004. 

6

The full eligibility age (or normal retirement age) for Social Security benefits is being 

raised from 65 to 67 from 2000 to 2022. The reduction for taking benefits at age 62 was 20 

percent when the full eligibility age was 65. When the age increase to 67 is fully 

implemented, the reduction will be 30 percent. 

7

“2004 Green Book: Background Material and Data on the Programs within the Jurisdiction 

of the House Committee on Ways and Means,” March 2004, p. 1-47. 

Many Factors 

Influence Workers’ 

Retirement and 

Employment 

Decisions 

Eligibility Rules 

Health Status 
Page 10 GAO-05-620T 

health problems that make it more difficult to continue working or to 

work full-time. Thus, jobs that are physically demanding, usually found in 

the blue-collar and service sectors of the economy, can be difficult for 

many people to perform at older ages. Moreover, health status and 

occupation are often interrelated since health can be affected by work 

environment. Although blue-collar and service sector workers may 

continue to face significant health problems, there is evidence that the 

health of older persons generally is improving. Research has shown that 

the majority of workers aged 62 to 67 do not appear to have health 

limitations that would prevent them from extending their careers, 

although some could face severe challenges in attempting to remain in the 

workforce.8

 In general, however, today’s older population may have an 

increased capacity to work compared with that of previous generations. 

Rising health care costs have made the availability of health insurance and 

anticipated medical expenditures important factors in the decision to 

retire. As health care costs continue to rise, many employers have decided 

to discontinue their retiree health benefits. A recent study estimated that 

the percentage of after-tax income spent on health care will approximately 

double for older married couples and singles by 2030.9

 People at the lower 

end of the income distribution will be the most adversely affected. The 

study projected that by 2030 those in the bottom 20 percent of the income 

distribution would spend more than 50 percent of their after-tax income 

on insurance premiums and health care expenses, an increase of 30 

percentage points from 2000. Continued employment could provide older 

workers with more income to help finance health care and in some cases 

could provide them with employer-sponsored health insurance. However, 

those least able to work at older ages may also be those with higher health 

care expenses. 

Researchers have also found that some older workers choose to remain in 

the labor force for reasons of physical and mental well-being. In recent 

 8

See GAO, Social Security Reform: Raising Retirement Ages Improves Program Solvency 

but May Cause Hardship for Some, GAO/T-HEHS-98-207 (Washington D.C.: July 15, 1998). 

9

Richard W. Johnson and Rudolph G. Penner, “Will Health Care Costs Erode Retirement 

Security?” Issue in Brief, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, October 2004, 

No. 23. 

Health Insurance 

Personal Preference 
Page 11 GAO-05-620T 

surveys by AARP,10 Watson Wyatt,11 and the Employee Benefit Research 

Institute (EBRI),12 older workers and retirees indicated that, in addition to 

financial considerations, enjoyment of work and a desire to stay active 

were important reasons to decide to work in retirement. For example, in 

the 2004 Retirement Confidence Survey done by EBRI, retirees most often 

said they worked for pay because they enjoyed working and wanted to 

stay involved (66 percent); yet a large majority also identify at least one 

financial reason for having worked (81 percent). 

In addition, the labor force status of a spouse affects the retirement 

decision of an older worker. A recent study found that older married 

couples tend to retire at the same time.13 Another study which analyzed the 

retirement behavior of married men and women separately found that men 

were more likely to retire if their wife was also retired, but women were 

not significantly affected by the labor force status of their husbands.14

The labor force decisions of older persons are also influenced by the 

availability of alternatives to full-time employment. In the United States, 

there has been interest among older workers who wish to work longer in 

seeking employment arrangements that allow them to work part-time in 

retirement. We define partial retirement as a reduction in hours from 

full-time to part-time work. A partial retiree may have transitioned directly 

from full- to part-time work at either a current or a new job, or may have 

returned to work after full retirement. Although surveys indicate that 

 10S. Kathi Brown, “Attitudes of Individuals 50 and Older toward Phased Retirement,” AARP 

Research Report, March 2005. 

11Watson Wyatt, Phased Retirement: Aligning Employer Programs with Worker 

Preferences. 2004 

12Employee Benefit Research Institute, Encouraging Workers to Save: The 2005 

Retirement Confidence Survey. Issue Brief No. 280, April 2005. 

13Richard W. Johnson, “Do Spouses Coordinate Their Retirement Decisions?” Issue in 

Brief, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, July 2004, No. 19. 

14Courtney Coile, “Retirement Incentives and Couples’ Retirement Decisions,” NBER 

Working Paper No. 9496, February 2003. 

Spouse 

Alternative Work 

Arrangements 
Page 12 GAO-05-620T 

many older workers would like to partially retire,15 prior GAO work found 

that offering such options is not a widespread practice among private 

employers and does not involve large numbers of workers at individual 

firms.16

Labor force participation is not solely the workers’ decision—there must 

also be an effective demand for their labor. Employers’ perceptions or 

biases against older workers may form potential barriers to older workers’ 

retaining their current jobs, finding new jobs, or reentering the work force 

after retiring. For example, employers may feel that it is more difficult to 

recoup the costs of hiring and training older workers. All other things 

being equal, older workers can also raise an employer’s cost of providing 

health insurance. Older workers may also face an obstacle because of a 

negative perception among employers about their productivity. Although 

the Age Discrimination in Employment Act protects those age 40 and over 

from age-based discrimination in the workplace, complaints to the Equal 

Employment Opportunity Commission suggest that such discrimination 

does still occur. 

To the extent that people choose to work longer as they live longer, the 

increase in the amount of time spent in retirement could be diminished. By 

staying in the workforce, older workers could ease financial pressures on 

Social Security and Medicare, as well as mitigate the expected slowdown 

in labor force growth. The additional income from earnings also could 

provide older Americans with greater resources in retirement and improve 

their financial security. 

Many older Americans are both willing and able to continue working at 

older ages. As described above, increased labor force participation of 

older workers would benefit both the economy and individuals. Thus, it is 

important to (1) encourage more widespread availability of flexible 

employment arrangements, such as partial retirement, which would make 

 15See Laurene A. Graig and Valerie Paganelli, “Phased Retirement: Reshaping the End of 

Work,” Compensation and Benefits Management, Vol. 16, No. 2, Spring and S. Kathi 

Brown, “Attitudes of Individuals 50 and Older toward Phased Retirement,” AARP Research 

Report, March 2005. 

16See GAO, Older Workers: Demographic Trends Pose Challenges for Employers and 

Workers, GAO-02-85 (Washington D.C.: November 2001). 

Employment Opportunities 

Conclusions 
Page 13 GAO-05-620T 

it easier for older workers to continue working, and (2) remove incentives 

that may induce older workers, who would otherwise choose to continue 

working, to retire. 

For those older Americans who are able to work, policies, programs, and 

alternative employment arrangements that help to extend their working 

life can enhance future supplies of skilled workers, bolster economic 

growth, and help many people secure adequate retirement income. We at 

GAO look forward to continuing to work with this Committee and the 

Congress in addressing this and other important issues facing our nation. 

Mr. Chairman, Mr. Kohl, members of the Committee, that concludes my 

statement. I’d be happy to answer any questions you may have. 

For further information regarding this testimony, please contact Barbara 

D. Bovbjerg, Director,or Alicia Puente Cackley, Assistant Director, at (202) 

512-7215. Other individuals making key contributions to this testimony 

included Mindy Bowman, Sharon Hermes, and Kristy Kennedy.

(130473) 

GAO Contacts and 

Staff 

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