Projections of Timber Harvest in Western 

Oregon and Washington by County, 

Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

A Technical Document Supporting the

2000 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment

 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREST SERVICE

XIAOPING ZHOU, RICHARD W. HAYNES, AND R. JAMES BARBOUR
The Forest Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture is dedicated to the principle of 

multiple use management of the Nation’s forest resources for sustained yields of wood, 

water, forage, wildlife, and recreation. Through forestry research, cooperation with the 

States and private forest owners, and management of the National Forests and National 

Grasslands, it strives—as directed by Congress—to provide increasingly greater service to 

a growing Nation.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and 

activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political 

beliefs, sexual orientation, or marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all 

programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of 

program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET 

Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-

W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or 

call (202) 720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.

USDA is committed to making its information materials accessible to all USDA customers 

and employees.

Authors

Xiaoping Zhou is a forester, Richard W. Haynes is a research forester, 

and R. James Barbour is a wood products technologist, Forestry Sciences 

Laboratory, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208.
Abstract

Zhou, Xiaoping; Haynes, Richard W.; Barbour, R. James. 2005. Projections of 

timber harvest in western Oregon and Washington by county, owner, forest type, 

and age class. Gen.Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-633. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 30 p.

The Pacific Northwest forest resource is highly dynamic. Expected changes over the 

next 50 years will greatly challenge some current perceptions of resource managers and various stakeholders. This report describes the current and expected future 

timberland conditions of western Oregon and Washington and presents the results 

at the county level. About 50 percent of the timber removals in this region will 

come from 10 west-side counties, and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) 

Franco) will remain the major species removed. Forest industry will account for 50 

percent of the total harvest in the Pacific Northwest West. Some inferences about 

the attributes of future timber and its utilization will be drawn from the projections 

at the county level over the next half century. 

Keywords: Timber availability, forest resources, wood quality.
Contents

 1 Introduction

 1 Definition of West-Side Counties

 1 Current Timberland Status on the West Side

 4 The Projection Model

 5 Projected Timberland Status

 8 The Age Distribution of the Removals

 13 The Diameter Distribution of the Removals

 16 The Spatial Distribution of the Removals

 17 Wood Quality Implication

 27 Discussion and Summary

 28 Metric Equivalents

 28 Literature Cited

 30 Appendix: Management Assumptions
1

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

Introduction

Timber availability in Washington and Oregon (the Pacific Northwest region) 

has changed dramatically since the late 1980s. In 1988 the region produced about 

15.7 billion board feet of timber. In 2001 it produced about 7.2 billion board feet 

(Warren 2003). These changes raise questions about the future sources and attributes of timber available in the region. Most of the current production now comes 

from private timberlands, and these lands are not distributed evenly throughout 

Washington and Oregon. The purpose of this report is threefold. First we describe 

the current and expected future timberland conditions of western Washington and 

Oregon (the Douglas-fir region). The basic projections used are from the fifth Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA 1997) assessment An 

Analysis of the Timber Situation: 1952–2050 (Haynes 2003), hereafter referred to 

as the fifth RPA timber assessment. Second, we present the results of disaggregating region-wide timber production projections to the county level. Finally, we will 

draw some inferences about the attributes of future timber and its utilization as well 

as those counties that are likely to remain important timber producers over the next 

half century. 

Definition of West-Side Counties 

In this report, we refer to the western half of Washington and Oregon (the Douglasfir region) as the west side. For our purposes, west-side counties are defined as those 

with all or the majority of their land area west of the Cascade crest. Historically, 

these have been the major timber-producing counties in Washington and Oregon, 

although some east-side counties have also produced substantial amounts of timber. 

Figure 1 shows 38 counties (19 in each state) that compose the west side.

Current Timberland Status on the West Side

This study adopts four ownership groups used in the various RPA documents: 

National Forest System (NFS), other public, forest industry (FI), and nonindustrial 

private (NIPF). The use of these ownerships is long standing and attempts to 

recognize differences among landowner objectives. For example, the NFS lands are 

managed to maintain broad ecosystem values, whereas FI lands are managed for 

sustainable wood production. These different objectives manifest themselves in 

differences in stand structures and timber flows between owners. Current timberland status was extracted from both the RPA database (Smith et al. 2001) and the 
2

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

fifth RPA timber assessment.1 This information provides context for the following 

discussion. There are 23.3 million acres of timberland in these west-side counties, 

31 percent of which are administered by NFS, 20 percent by other public agencies, 

29 percent by FI, and the remaining 20 percent by NIPF. The major west-side forest 

types are Douglas-fir and western hemlock. Approximately 52 percent of timberland is Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), and 15 percent is 

western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.). Oregon west-side forests are 

dominated by Douglas-fir, (60 percent of timberlands), whereas Washington westside forests are dominated by Douglas-fir (42 percent of timberlands) and western 

1 The fifth RPA timber assessment presents the U.S. timber scenarios for the next 50 years 

under various assumptions. Assumptions address future forest policies and behaviors of 

domestic and global markets of forest products.

Oregon counties: Benton, Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Curry,

 Douglas, Hood River, Jackson, Josephine, Lane, Lincoln, Linn, 

 Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Tillamook, Washington, Yamhill.

Washington counties: Clallam, Clark, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Island, 

 Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, San Juan, 

 Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whatcom.

W E S T S I D E

W A S H I N G T O N

O R E G O N

Figure 1—West-side counties in Oregon and Washington. 
3

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

hemlock (23 percent of timberlands). Figure 2 shows the timberland distribution 

by forest type and ownership groups. Forest types are grouped into six major 

categories: (1) Douglas-fir, including a very small portion of Douglas-fir mixed 

with other conifer species; (2) western hemlock; (3) fir and spruce, including a 

very small portion of true fir from NFS; (4) red alder; (5) other softwoods including pine, softwood mix; and (6) other hardwoods, including nonstocked areas. 

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

All owners NFS Other public FI NIPF

Million acres

Douglas-fir

Western hemlock

Fir and spruce

Red alder

Other softwood

Other hardwood

Figure 2—Timberland distribution among owners and forest types (RPA 1997 database). 

NFS = national forest system, FI = forest industry, NIPF = nonindustrial private forest.

Approximately 53 percent of the acres have stands younger than 50 years old, 

whereas 13 percent of the acres have stands older than 150 years. The majority 

of stands less than 150 years old are on other public or private land, whereas the 

majority of stands greater than or equal to 150 years old are on NFS land (fig. 3). 

Forest Industry and NIPF timberlands hold a large proportion of younger stands, 

whereas on NFS timberlands, the age class distribution is more uniform. In fact, 

about 80 percent of the timberland owned by FI has stands younger than 50 years 

old (64 percent for NIPF), and 1 percent of stands are older than 150 years on both 

FI and NIPF timberland. Stands on NFS timberland are much older, with 35 percent 

older than 150 years and only 21 percent younger than 50 years. The age distribution of stands on other public timberlands is much closer to the average, with 49 

percent younger than 50 years and a little over 8 percent older than 150 years.

An important question, in terms of timber production, is whether these differences in age class distribution actually mean there will be differences in the age of 

harvested trees. Current policy on federally administered land effectively reserves 

all stands over about 80 years old from harvest and in practice restricts harvest to 
4

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

thinning of stands younger than about 50 years old. Managers of state land in both 

Oregon and Washington are under pressure to harvest only younger stands and then 

to create structural conditions for developing old forest characteristics that may 

eventually be managed for habitat protection. 

The Projection Model

The inventory projection model used for the fifth RPA timber assessment is known 

as the Aggregate Timberland Assessment System (ATLAS) (Mills and Kincaid 

1992). This inventory projection system includes an inventory module, management 

module, and harvest module. The inventory module contains descriptions of inventory in terms of forest type, ownership, site class, management intensity, area, and 

volume by age class. The management module contains the parameters governing 

growth and yield, including the hardwood-softwood fiber mix, average diameter by 

age, yield tables by forest type, regeneration, stocking and density change variables, 

management intensity, harvesting parameters, and area change parameters. The 

harvest module contains future removals stratified by region, ownership, and fiber 

type for each projection period. 

ATLAS-T is another model variant sharing the same structure of ATLAS but 

written in SAS (2000). It accommodates the internalized forest type transitions and 

management intensity shifting. That is, the system will simulate the harvest and 

Figure 3—Current age class distribution by ownership. NFS = national forest system, FI = forest industry, NIPF = nonindustrial private 

forest.

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Mid age (years)

Timberland area (percent)

5

25

45

65

85

105

125

145

165

185

205

225

245

265

FI

NFS

Other public

NIPF

All ownership
5

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

stand regeneration based on the management regime designated for the future forest 

type and management intensity after harvesting. It also projects timber inventory 

at finer levels (county, state, or subregion). For a county-level inventory projection, 

ATLAS-T assumes that timberland in each county will be assigned to different 

management intensities in the same proportion as for the region. In addition, the 

starting inventory in ATLAS-T is aggregated to the county level and described by 

ownership, forest type, site class, management intensity, and age class. Those variables will be carried over to the next projection period after management simulation of harvest and growth. ATLAS-T operates with regional estimates of removals 

(usually the RPA regional level consisting of several states) that are distributed to 

county level based on the available harvest volumes within each type and management intensity unit. 

ATLAS-T consists of a main program and subprograms that deal with different 

management practices such as type transition, management intensity shifting, and 

different types of disturbances (fire/insect). Basically, the main program reads the 

starting inventory data; adds net growth following the yield functions for each forest ownership, type, and management intensity; harvests the volume necessary to 

meet requests; and writes the inventory output for the next simulation period. The 

subprograms will be called when type transition, management intensity shifting, or 

special policy analysis is involved. 

Projected Timberland Status

Projected trends in various aspects of timberland conditions are summarized in the 

fifth RPA timber assessment (Haynes 2003). The assessment results suggest that we 

can expect consumption of forest products to increase by 40 percent over the next 

50 years while output from the forest products sector will increase by 24 percent. 

The slower rate of growth in production reflects an increasing share of products 

from imports to meet rising wood products consumption. We will see a change in 

the mix of types of forest products manufactured, rising prices, shifts in regional 

concentration of production, and significant changes in the modes and intensities of 

forest management for private timberland owners. 

In this section, we discuss two projections of timberland conditions in the 

west-side forests of Oregon and Washington. The first projection reflects the various management assumptions for the major west-side forest types used in the base 

case from the fifth RPA timber assessment: Douglas-fir and western hemlock. The 

second projection is called the Northwest Forest Plan (NWPF) case.2

 The various 

2 Jamie Barbour proposed lower partial cutting or final harvest age mainly for national 

forests. This is related to the NWFP, and we call it the NWFP case.
6

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

assumptions for these two cases are summarized in table 1. We also disaggregate 

these projections to the counties by using a modified version of ATLAS, ATLAS_T. 

The discussions of the county projections include all ownerships except for other 

public timberland where projections in this detail are not available. As in any assessment, there are a series of assumptions about economic conditions, the behavior 

of the forest products, and stumpage markets (see Haynes 2003 for details). 

The projections provide information on inventory conditions by age classes. In 

the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, an average age in years was assigned 

to the stand based on the measured ages for the trees and stand stocking level. For 

each stand at a certain age class, the diameters at breast height (d.b.h.) varied from 

tree to tree. The empirical d.b.h. distributions for each age class and forest type 

were obtained by using the newly created integrated database by Pacific Northwest 

Research Station (PNW) FIA Program.3 Stands 200 years and older were grouped 

into a single age group. Trees less than 5 in d.b.h. are assumed to have zero merchantable volume.

Table 1—Major harvest assumptions under Resources Planning Act (RPA) base case and Northwest Forest 

Plan (NWFP) case

Owner

Fifth RPA base case NWFP case

Douglas-fir Western hemlock Douglas-fir Western hemlock

Nonindustrial 

private forest

Thin at age 35

Proportional final 

 harvest from age 

 45 to 175

Final harvest start at 

 age 45, 55, or 65

No thin

Proportional final 

 harvest from age 

 55 to 175 

Final harvest start at 

 age 45, 55, or 65

Thin at age 35

Proportional final 

 harvest from age 

 45 to 175 

Final harvest start at 

 age 45, 55, or 65

No thin

Proportional final 

 harvest from age 

 45 to 175 

Final harvest start at 

 age 45, 55, or 65

Forest industry Thin at age 35

Final harvest start at 

 age 45, 55, or 65

No thin

Proportional final 

 harvest from age 

 65 to 175 

Final harvest start 

 at age 45, 55, or 65

Thin at age 35

Final harvest start at 

 age 45, 55, or 65

No thin

Proportional final 

 harvest from age 

 65 to 175 

Final harvest start at 

 age 45, 55, or 65

National forest 

system 

Thin at midage 35

Partial cutting to certain nonzero age from 

 age 105 to 255 and above

Proportional final harvest from age 85 to 

 255 and above

Thin at midage 35

Partial cutting to certain age from age 105 to 

 255 and above

Proportional final harvest from age 45 to 85

3 The integrated database (PNW-IDB) integrates forest inventory data from Forest 

Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program (for private ownership), NFS, and BLM for 

Oregon, Washington, and California by the FIA in the PNW Research Station. The 

database contains plot, condition, and tree information. 
7

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

Projections of harvest (removals) by decade and ownership under the assumptions of the RPA base case scenario suggest a fairly static picture (fig. 4). During 

the entire simulation period (1997–2056), most of the removals are projected to 

come from FI timberlands, whereas NFS timberland is only projected to contribute 

4 percent of the total removals on average.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1997–2006

Removals (million cubic feet)

2007–2016

2017–2026

2027–2036

2037–2046

2047–2056

NFS

FI

NIPF

Figure 4—Projected removals by decade and ownership in west-side counties.

NFS = national forest system, FI = forest industry, NIPF = nonindustrial private forest.

Under the base case assumptions, about 63 percent of removals will be 

Douglas-fir and 20.4 percent will be western hemlock during the simulation 

period (fig. 5). Approximately 67 percent of Douglas-fir removals and about 80 

percent of western hemlock removals will come from FI timberlands. The harvest 

will be concentrated in age classes 45 to 65. Some removals of older age classes 

will be from NFS timberlands.

Under the NWFP case, because the proportion of NFS harvest is small relative 

to both available inventory and the harvest from other owners, the change of harvest age assumptions for the national forest will not affect the total harvest substantially. The Douglas-fir harvest will be 62.7 percent and hemlock harvest will be 

20.5 percent of all harvest from all ownership groups. However, for the NFS harvest, the NWFP harvest age assumptions for Douglas-fir and western hemlock 

differs from the RPA base case assumptions, and they will alter the projections. 

Under this scenario, the harvest will decrease by 4 percent for Douglas-fir and 

2 percent for western hemlock, and will shift to fir and spruce timber types. 
8

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

The Age Distribution of the Removals

Several harvest regimes were applied to meet the timber stumpage demand. These 

regimes included commercial thinning, proportional final harvesting (clearcutting) 

across certain age groups, and partial cutting. The model simulated removals based 

on the management assumptions for each forest type. The age class distribution of 

the Douglas-fir (fig. 6.1 to 6.4) and western hemlock (figs. 7.1 to 7.3) removals under 

the RPA base case are illustrated for NFS, FI, and NIPF ownerships. Under the 

NWFP case, the proportional final harvest for NFS is assumed to occur in a younger age class, from age 45 to 85 (table 1). The comparison of the harvest age distributions for NFS under these two cases are seen in figures 6.2 and 6.5 for Douglas-fir, 

and figures 7.2 and 7.3 for western hemlock.

Projected Douglas-fir removals will gradually shift toward younger age classes 

for all ownership groups (fig. 6.1). Fifty-four percent of the Douglas-fir removals 

will be younger than age 70 from 1997 to 2006. This proportion is projected at 87 

percent from 2037 to 2046. The biggest change will occur for the 45-year age class 

(ages 40 to 50). The percentage of removals for this age class will change from approximately 7 percent in the period 1997–2006, to 32 percent in the period 2016–26, 

to 49 percent in the period 2037–46. The removals of Douglas-fir from FI (fig. 6.3) 

and NIPF (fig. 6.4) lands dominate this shift in age class distribution, with FI lands 

contributing the most to the change. Although the total harvest increases under both 

base case (fig. 6.2) and NWFP case (fig. 6.5), NFS lands do not show an age shift 

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

NFS_RPA

NFS_NWFP

FI_RPA

FI_NWFP

NIPF_RPA

NIPF_NWFP

Removals (million cubic feet)

Other hardwood

Red alder

Other softwood

Fir and spruce

Western hemlock

Douglas-fir

Figure 5—Total removals during projection period by owner and forest types, 1997–2056. 

NFS = National Forest System, NWFP = Northwest Forest Plan, FI = forest industry, and 

NIPF = nonindustrial private forest.
9

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

Midpoint of age class (years)

Removals (million cubic feet)

265

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

Figure 6.1—Projected age class distribution of Douglas-fir removals for all ownerships, RPA base case.

Figure 6.2—Projected age class distribution of Douglas-fir removals for National Forest System, RPA base case.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Midpoint of age class (years)

Removals (million cubic feet)

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

265

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046
10

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Midpoint of age class (years)

Removals (million cubic feet)

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

265

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

Figure 6.3—Projected age class distribution of Douglas-fir removals for forest industry, RPA base case.

Figure 6.4—Projected age class distribution of Douglas-fir removals for nonindustry private forest, RPA base case.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

R

e

m

o

v

als (millio

n

c

u

bic fe

et)

Midpoint of age class (years)

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

265

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046
11

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

Figure 6.5—Projected age class distribution of Douglas-fir removals for National Forest System, NWFP case.

Figure 7.1—Projected age class distribution of western hemlock removals for all ownerships, RPA base case.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Midpoint of age class (years)

Removals (million cubic feet)

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

265

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

Midpoint of age class (years)

Removals (million cubic feet)

265

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046
12

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

Figure 7.2—Projected age class distribution of western hemlock removals for National Forest System, RPA base case.

Figure 7.3—Projected age class distribution of western hemlock removals for National Forest System, NWFP case.

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

Midpoint of age class (years)

265

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Removals (million cubic feet)

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

Midpoint of age class (years)

265

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Removals (million cubic feet)
13

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

because of the small amount of harvest relative to the large pool of inventory available and the total removals for all ownerships. 

For western hemlock, the age-class shift in removals for all ownership is seen 

in the first three decades. Under the base case (fig 7.1), 68 percent of the removals for the first period (1997–2006) and 92 percent for the period 2017–26 will be 

younger than age 70. This proportion (of removals younger than age 70) will drop 

to 83 percent during the period 2037–46. The peak age of the harvest will be at 

age 55 years. Forty percent of the western hemlock removals will be in the 55-year 

age class during the period 1997–2006, 51 percent during the period 2017–26, and 

44 percent during the period 2037–46. Like Douglas-fir, these proportions are 

dominated by removals on private timberland.

The Diameter Distribution of the Removals

Diameter (d.b.h.) distributions of the removals from the west-side counties are presented in figures 8 to 12. A 3-in d.b.h. interval was used for developing the diameter 

classes used in these distributions. For example, “Mid-DBH 6.5” stands for all trees 

having a d.b.h. between 5 and 8 in. 

The total removals during the projection period under the two scenarios (RPA 

base case and NWFP case) result in a similar d.b.h. distribution. However, the 

removals trend toward smaller d.b.h. classes over time as shown in figure 8 for all 

ownerships under the base case. Fifty-four percent of the removals are less than 

20-in d.b.h. (up to mid-d.b.h. 18.5 in, fig. 9) during the first period, approximately 

64 percent of the removals are less than 20-in d.b.h. during the period 2017–26, 

and 65 percent are less than 20-in d.b.h. for the period 2037–46. 

The total removals of Douglas-fir increased during the projection period. There 

is also a tendency toward removals from smaller diameter trees for all ownership 

groups (fig. 10), but especially from FI timberlands. Less than 49 percent of FI 

removals will be from trees smaller than 20-in during the period 1997–2006. This 

proportion increases to 67 percent in the 2017–26 period and increases again to 

70 percent for the 2037–46 period (fig. 11). 

Under the base case, removals of western hemlock from all ownership groups 

are projected to increase for the first three decades and then decline. The d.b.h. 

distribution of the removals will shift to smaller trees throughout the first three 

decades for FI and NIPF timberlands. For example, about 66 percent of removals 

from FI timberlands will be less than 20-in d.b.h. for the first decade; the percentage of small-diameter removals will increase to 77 percent by the third and fifth 

decades (fig. 12). 
14

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

Figure 8—Projected diameter at breast height class distribution of removals for RPA base case, all ownerships. 

Figure 9—Accumulated percentage distribution of removals by diameter at breast height class for RPA base case.

6.5 9.5 12.5 15.5 18.5 21.5 24.5 27.5 30.5 33.5 36.5 39.5 42.5 45.5 48.5 50+

Mid-d.b.h. class

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Removals (million cubic feet)

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Removals (percent)

Mid-d.b.h. class

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

6.5 9.5 12.5 15.5 18.5 21.5 24.5 27.5 30.5 33.5 36.5 39.5 42.5 45.5 48.5 50+
15

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

Figure 10—Accumulated percentage distribution of Douglas-fir removals for RPA base case, all ownerships. 

Figure 11—Accumulated percentage distribution of Douglas-fir removals for RPA base case, forest industry. 

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Removals (percent)

Mid-d.b.h. class

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

6.5 9.5 12.5 15.5 18.5 21.5 24.5 27.5 30.5 33.5 36.5 39.5 42.5 45.5 48.5 50+

Removals (percent)

Mid-d.b.h. class

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

6.5 9.5 12.5 15.5 18.5 21.5 24.5 27.5 30.5 33.5 36.5 39.5 42.5 45.5 48.5 50+

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
16

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

Figure 12—Accumulated percentage of western hemlock removals for RPA base case, forest industry. 

Removals for both Douglas-fir and western hemlock from NFS timberland 

will, however, tend to be bigger trees. For all the periods, more than 79 percent of 

Douglas-fir removals and more than 86 percent of the western hemlock removals 

will be trees larger than 20-in d.b.h.

The Spatial Distribution of the Removals

The accumulated removals under the base case scenario by county over the projection period are shown in figure 13. Douglas, Lane, and Coos Counties in Oregon 

and Grays Harbor, Lewis, Pacific, and Cowlitz Counties in Washington produce 

the most timber in western Oregon and Washington as shown in table 2. Douglas 

and Lane are the major Douglas-fir counties in Oregon, whereas Grays Harbor and 

Pacific are the major western hemlock counties in Washington (table 3). 

At the end of the projection period, the total timberland area will remain stable, 

both collectively and among ownership groups. The total inventory volume is projected to increase by 61 percent (excluding other public timberlands), with most of 

the increase (86 percent) concentrated on NFS timberlands where it is unlikely to 

be available for harvest. Meanwhile, the total inventory volume on FI timberlands 

will decrease by 30 percent. The decrease in inventory for FI timberlands will lead 

to a younger age-class distribution. At the end of the projection period, 91 percent 

Removals (percent)

Mid-d.b.h. class

1997–2006

2017–2026

2037–2046

6.5 9.5 12.5 15.5 18.5 21.5 24.5 27.5 30.5 33.5 36.5 39.5 42.5 45.5 48.5 50+

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
17

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

Figure 13—Accumulated removals during projection period by county for all ownerships, 

RPA base case.

PNWW total removals

 (million cubic feet)

 0 to 1,000

 1,000 to 2,000

 2,000 to 4000

 4,000 to 6,000

 6,000 and above

W A S H I N G T O N

O R E G O N

of FI timberland will contain stands that are younger than 60 years old, compared 

to the current value of 88 percent. There are substantial changes in timber removals by county over the projection period (fig. 14). The projected county removals by 

selected period for combined and individual ownership groups are listed in tables 4 

and 5. 

Wood Quality Implication

The projection of future removals tends toward younger and smaller trees for all 

ownerships, especially for the private owners. An important question for these 

owners is whether this will influence the wood characteristics and affect the log 

grades, and therefore the value, of harvested stumpage? By using an existing 
18

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

Table 2—Accumulated removals over projection period (1997–2056) by county and owners, for Resources 

Planning Act (RPA) base case and Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) case

National forest system Forest industry Nonindustrial private Total

Base NWFP Base NWFP Base NWFP Base NWFP

State County case case case case case case case case

Million cubic feet

Oregon Benton 12 11 360 357 853 861 1,226 1,229

Clackamas 312 302 1,192 1,231 1,035 1,072 2,539 2,605

Clatsop 0 0 2,754 2,765 266 292 3,021 3,057

Columbia 0 0 2,045 2,037 724 720 2,770 2,757

Coos 44 40 2,274 2,277 1,835 1,787 4,153 4,103

Curry 120 110 807 810 711 756 1,638 1,677

Douglas 545 525 6,269 6,267 2,323 2,153 9,138 8,944

Hood River 59 59 169 170 57 64 285 294

Jackson 186 189 1,934 1,922 601 677 2,721 2,788

Josephine 99 93 89 89 527 513 715 695

Lane 726 689 5,020 5,017 1,587 1,669 7,333 7,375

Lincoln 56 56 1,606 1,615 837 830 2,499 2,500

Linn 257 260 1,605 1,615 1,503 1,566 3,365 3,441

Marion 83 88 402 399 519 534 1,004 1,020

Multnomah 39 37 34 34 75 75 148 147

Polk 2 1 1,527 1,525 372 340 1,901 1,866

Tillamook 25 25 1,196 1,181 309 293 1,530 1,499

Washington 0 0 221 223 644 618 865 841

Yamhill 10 9 898 898 362 351 1,271 1,257

Washington Clallam 99 100 2,062 2,063 567 600 2,728 2,763

Clark 1 1 528 522 716 661 1,244 1,184

Cowlitz 4 6 3,346 3,361 798 774 4,148 4,141

Grays Harbor 79 85 5,686 5,672 1,803 1,853 7,568 7,610

Island 0 0 0 0 562 531 562 531

Jefferson 78 79 652 654 1,164 1,152 1,894 1,885

King 132 141 2,290 2,294 1,164 1,194 3,586 3,628

Kitsap 0 0 0 0 806 817 806 817

Lewis 209 200 4,185 4,225 1,790 1,675 6,183 6,099

Mason 39 41 1,912 1,898 937 946 2,888 2,885

Pacific 0 0 4,170 4,182 786 732 4,956 4,914

Pierce 42 46 1,902 1,883 933 962 2,878 2,891

San Juan 0 0 0 0 562 622 562 622

Skagit 186 209 1,443 1,431 704 726 2,333 2,366

Skamania 315 321 627 627 314 342 1,256 1,290

Snohomish 160 187 1,245 1,236 1,019 1,000 2,425 2,423

Thurston 0 0 939 935 1,029 1,016 1,968 1,951

Wahkiakum 0 0 913 905 110 107 1,023 1,011

Whatcom 120 126 612 598 671 695 1,402 1,419

 Total 4,040 4,036 62,915 62,915 31,576 31,576 98,531 98,527
19

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

Table 3—Douglas-fir and western hemlock removals by selected period for all ownerships, Resources 

Planning Act base case

Douglas-fir Western hemlock

State County 1997–2006 2017–26 2037–46 1997–2006 2017-26 2037–46

Million cubic feet

Oregon Benton 88.0 83.4 196.6 0.1 0.1 0.2

Clackamas 132.3 363.7 435.1 16.1 81.2 62.0

Clatsop 35.9 9.1 145.6 227.6 548.1 315.3

Columbia 258.7 98.9 373.8 .1 .1 17.7

Coos 407.5 469.7 686.1 11.5 105.7 57.3

Curry 136.4 84.0 354.4 9.3 18.6 10.3

Douglas 1,165.5 1,398.5 1,882.0 132.9 4.7 7.2

Hood River 21.8 21.8 34.3 1.3 2.0 2.7

Jackson 438.0 253.5 430.2 1.0 1.7 2.3

Josephine 71.5 98.9 207.3 0 0 0

Lane 868.5 1,209.6 1,205.3 141.4 25.6 24.8

Lincoln 102.6 214.8 295.2 47.6 256.6 55.5

Linn 264.2 637.8 478.6 11.1 107.2 57.6

Marion 255.0 57.9 168.8 2.1 3.4 5.2

Multnomah 1.0 1.7 0 1.8 2.8 3.9

Polk 169.5 402.8 331.2 0 0 0

Tillamook 34.1 42.9 197.7 88.3 174.6 122.4

Washington 15.6 191.7 79.9 0 19.5 50.7

Yamhill 211.5 91.8 390.8 0 0 0

Washington Clallam 70.1 119.6 235.6 257.8 191.5 457.4

Clark 332.0 47.9 218.3 0 0 0

Cowlitz 528.1 416.5 760.2 35.1 29.2 16.0

Grays Harbor 553.8 247.3 785.2 907.8 551.5 385.9

Island 107.9 42.6 126.8 32.2 6.3 4.8

Jefferson 180.4 112.5 395.8 111.8 94.5 94.7

King 374.7 270.3 319.5 160.7 185.7 69.9

Kitsap 161.3 58.9 238.0 0 11.7 5.1

Lewis 341.4 731.4 950.7 151.5 226.9 170.3

Mason 582.7 93.0 584.3 32.7 33.3 8.5

Pacific 80.0 306.0 506.8 330.5 612.5 268.7

Pierce 257.4 272.6 402.9 161.5 156.2 80.5

San Juan 140.2 74.6 183.4 0 0 0

Skagit 131.8 114.5 123.0 126.2 202.9 86.7

Skamania 156.6 119.3 217.8 7.3 23.5 21.9

Snohomish 207.0 103.1 237.2 118.5 83.3 136.4

Thurston 344.2 159.3 364.2 0 0 0

Wahkiakum 114.5 116.0 83.2 159.4 23.6 16.1

Whatcom 73.3 22.8 70.7 77.0 74.2 33.5
20

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

Figure 14—County removals at various projection periods for all ownership, RPA base case.

database of tree information4 including diameter, age, lumber grade, and yield, 

product proportions from a tree were estimated with the explanatory variables of 

age and diameter for Douglas-fir and western hemlock. To simplify this analysis, 

visual lumber grades were combined into four broad value classes (Barbour et al. 

2005). They were appearance (Shop and better), general Construction (No. 1 

and No. 2 lumber), Select Structural, and Utility and Economy.5 The multinomial 

PNWW removals

 (million cubic feet)

 Less than 400

 400 to 800

 800 to 1,200

 1,200 and above

Period 0 (1997–2006) Period 2 (2017–2026) Period 4 (2037–2046)

4 This database is maintained by the Ecologically Sustainable Production of Forest Resources team of the Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

5 The appearance category includes Selects and Factory Lumber such as clears and shops 

that have the highest dollar value and are typically used for finish applications. Select Structural includes only the Select Structural grade and was intended to indicate the amount 

of lumber that might be available for higher value structural uses. Construction lumber 

includes No. 1 and No. 2, Standard and Construction, and No. 4 and better Commons plus 

any heavy timbers or other grades that are typically used for structural purposes. Utility 

and Economy includes Utility and Economy plus No. 5 Common and other grades that 

capture the lowest value lumber.
21

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

Table 4—County removals by selected period for all ownerships, Resources Planning 

Act (RPA) base case and Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) case 

1997–2006 2017–26 2037–46

State County Base NWFP Base NWFP Base NWFP

case case case case case case

Million cubic feet

Oregon Benton 110.7 137.3 233.1 226.4 215.0 218.1

Clackamas 253.7 257.7 533.8 523.0 496.2 572.7

Clatsop 381.5 368.8 601.6 628.5 438.1 465.1

Columbia 408.5 422.9 250.9 266.5 474.0 481.8

Coos 670.5 679.1 782.6 759.1 839.0 800.2

Curry 200.4 206.7 146.0 129.9 321.0 344.8

Douglas 1409.2 1421.6 1477.5 1516.1 1881.0 1672.8

Hood River 29.2 26.3 53.3 55.3 27.4 27.3

Jackson 597.5 570.2 339.7 366.4 504.5 495.2

Josephine 77.6 65.5 161.1 208.9 171.3 101.7

Lane 1054.5 1056.0 1350.6 1335.7 1146.0 1163.4

Lincoln 330.0 309.2 510.1 495.2 299.1 292.8

Linn 405.4 465.2 776.9 736.7 461.1 467.2

Marion 284.2 253.8 83.6 96.7 63.3 75.3

Multnomah 45.5 45.8 36.0 35.9 11.3 10.3

Polk 283.7 274.3 427.9 450.5 319.2 299.3

Tillamook 132.1 126.3 272.3 292.2 309.2 264.3

Washington 16.7 14.2 288.7 273.6 152.9 132.9

Yamhill 216.0 232.0 133.4 132.0 330.3 312.0

Washington Clallam 382.3 400.5 367.0 352.5 654.6 655.8

Clark 349.0 328.3 125.7 134.9 94.9 84.6

Cowlitz 684.2 655.5 524.9 522.2 703.9 736.6

Grays Harbor 1662.8 1719.2 1002.3 973.7 1245.6 1272.5

Island 143.8 144.8 53.4 52.5 42.4 48.9

Jefferson 404.7 365.0 277.3 284.5 350.9 374.7

King 722.7 761.5 631.5 571.4 401.1 429.6

Kitsap 190.5 204.7 103.2 95.2 101.2 117.9

Lewis 617.9 606.5 1149.6 1153.4 1128.6 1181.4

Mason 806.2 801.2 166.5 173.3 496.6 473.5

Pacific 623.0 600.8 957.4 963.7 780.2 829.5

Pierce 562.5 575.0 491.2 470.4 431.3 424.3

San Juan 186.6 189.0 111.4 88.2 43.2 50.6

Skagit 424.2 402.3 503.7 542.7 231.8 230.0

Skamania 173.3 191.2 158.0 146.3 229.8 238.0

Snohomish 495.4 488.6 324.4 326.3 349.6 369.2

Thurston 431.2 406.4 295.5 305.6 326.5 335.4

Wahkiakum 273.9 273.8 156.3 158.7 120.6 112.9

Whatcom 270.9 264.3 269.2 282.7 183.1 212.4
22

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

Table 5—County removals by selected period for each ownership, Resources Planning Act base case

National Forest System Forest industry Nonindustrial private

State County 1997– 2017– 2037– 1997– 2017- 2037– 1997– 2017– 2037–

 2006 2026 2046 2006 2026 2046 2006 2026 2046

Million cubic feet

Oregon Benton 0.9 1.3 2.3 68.6 2.8 60.2 41.1 229.0 152.5

Clackamas 28.5 49.3 68.0 8.2 333.6 218.8 217.0 150.9 209.4

Clatsop 0 0 0 308.6 578.9 402.8 72.8 22.8 35.3

Columbia 0 0 0 289.5 163.4 373.7 119.0 87.4 100.3

Coos 4.0 6.7 9.6 395.8 486.1 435.3 270.6 289.9 394.2

Curry 11.0 16.5 24.5 20.2 51.9 157.3 169.1 77.6 139.2

Douglas 54.0 86.0 116.8 1,131.9 1,083.6 1,096.1 223.4 307.9 668.1

Hood River 5.7 9.7 13.3 3.3 38.4 11.5 20.2 5.2 2.6

Jackson 14.4 27.6 41.1 410.7 225.7 370.5 172.5 86.5 92.8

Josephine 7.9 14.7 21.4 .9 61.8 3.7 68.7 84.5 146.2

Lane 73.1 112.6 143.8 717.6 952.0 745.9 263.8 285.9 256.3

Lincoln 5.4 9.4 12.0 95.9 402.2 174.1 228.7 98.5 113.0

Linn 21.4 35.6 50.1 128.3 454.2 209.1 255.7 287.1 201.8

Marion 6.7 11.9 18.1 102.1 19.8 9.0 175.4 51.9 36.3

Multnomah 3.4 5.9 7.9 .1 13.1 3.4 42.0 16.9 0

Polk .1 .1 .1 233.0 375.6 253.6 50.6 52.2 65.5

Tillamook 2.5 5.0 7.1 94.4 219.1 241.1 35.3 48.2 61.1

Washington 0 0 0 .6 106.6 0 16.1 182.1 152.9

Yamhill .1 1.6 3.3 149.2 79.5 290.6 66.6 52.2 36.3

Washington Clallam 9.2 14.6 21.8 264.6 270.3 557.0 108.4 82.1 75.7

Clark 0 .1 .1 204.4 8.7 22.3 144.5 116.9 72.6

Cowlitz .8 1.0 1.0 509.5 435.7 589.1 173.9 88.2 113.7

Grays Harbor 7.4 12.6 15.4 1,462.4 731.5 812.1 193.0 258.2 418.2

Island 0 0 0 0 0 0 143.8 53.4 42.4

Jefferson 7.1 11.8 16.8 107.0 117.5 124.1 290.6 148.0 210.0

King 14.7 24.1 30.8 493.5 354.7 238.9 214.6 252.7 131.4

Kitsap 0 0 0 0 0 0 190.5 103.2 101.2

Lewis 20.5 32.7 44.4 331.3 912.6 691.6 266.1 204.3 392.7

Mason 4.1 6.5 9.5 566.9 87.5 293.0 235.3 72.5 194.1

Pacific 0 0 0 476.8 898.9 594.3 146.2 58.5 185.8

Pierce 3.8 6.1 8.3 379.8 311.7 301.6 179.0 173.4 121.4

San Juan 0 0 0 0 0 0 186.6 111.4 43.2

Skagit 21.9 31.9 38.7 237.4 360.7 101.7 164.9 111.1 91.3

Skamania 27.6 46.5 67.4 81.7 60.8 129.3 63.9 50.7 33.1

Snohomish 13.9 21.9 35.1 282.6 140.3 169.7 199.0 162.1 144.8

Thurston 0 0 0 277.7 107.1 150.5 153.5 188.4 176.0

Wahkiakum 0 0 0 273.9 147.1 68.4 0 9.2 52.2

Whatcom 12.2 22.5 31.4 195.7 109.6 18.0 63.0 137.1 133.7
23

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

logit model was employed to estimate the yield proportion of each value class by 

using either age or d.b.h. as explanatory variable. The resulting models show strong 

relations between the yields of the four lumber value groups and age (fig. 15a and 

16a) and diameter (fig. 15b and 16b). When these models are applied to estimate 

removals by value class based on projections of removals by species and diameter 

or age, the result suggests that most if not all of any potential shift in visual grade 

yield has already occurred for coastal Oregon and Washington. Figures 17 and 18 

show the percentage of each value class based on the age of removals for Douglasfir and hemlock during each of three periods (1997–2006, 2017–26, and 2037–46). 

For both species, the percentage of each value class is essentially constant across 

all three periods in spite of the fact that the age and size of removals continue to 

decline for the FI and NIPF ownership groups (these are by far the largest contributors to the region’s timber production). This suggests that as far as visual grades are 

concerned, the transition to a young-growth resource with fairly uniform characteristics has already occurred. This means that as the industry continues the shift to 

harvesting and processing smaller, younger trees little change in visual lumber 

grade yield should be expected. Additional evidence of this shift and its completion 

is provided in Warren (1991, 2003).6 Table 9 in Warren documents a decline in the 

production of appearance grades and Utility and Economy along with a corresponding increase in the amount of general Construction lumber from the late 1970s 

through the late 1980s. In recent years, the industry summaries reported by Warren 

(2003) have more or less leveled off to a new equilibrium where very little appearance grade lumber is manufactured in the coastal half of the region, and the bulk of 

the production is in the general construction lumber category. This is typical of 

young vigorous stands of managed timber where defects are minimal and branch 

size is controlled by early spacing (Barbour 2004).

The projections made here do not account for the potential change in basic 

wood properties that could potentially occur as a result of the continuing decline 

in harvest age on private industrial and nonindustrial land. As tree age for both 

hemlock and Douglas-fir dips below about age 40, the proportion of juvenile wood 

is expected to increase to the point where a substantial reduction in mechanical 

properties begins to occur. Evidence of this erosion of mechanical properties was 

reported by Barbour et al. (2003) based on the change in yields of machine stress 

rated lumber for both species from trees in the 40-to-60-year age class and trees 

in the 40-and-under age class. Although there was some change in visual grade 

between these two age classes, it was not nearly large enough to account for the 

6 The complete data set is published in appendix 2 tables 10 and 12 in Haynes and 

Fight (2004).
24

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

10

3050

7090

110

130

150

170

190

210

230250

270

290

310

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Product proportion

Age (years)

Shop and better

No. 1 and No. 2 lumber

Select Structural

Utility and Economy

Figure 15a—Pacific Northwest west side Douglas-fir product proportion by age.

Figure 15b— Pacific Northwest west side Douglas-fir product proportion by diameter at breast height.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Product proportion

d.b.h. (in)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Shop and better

No. 1 and No. 2 lumber

Select Structural

Utility and Economy
25

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

Figure 16a—Pacific Northwest west side Hemlock product proportion by age.

Figure 16b— Pacific Northwest west side Hemlock product proportion by diameter at breast height.

10

3050

7090

110

130

150

170

190

210

230250

270

290

Age (years)

310

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Product proportion

Shop and better

No. 1 and No. 2 lumber

Select Structural

Utility and Economy

d.b.h. (in)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

Product proportion

Shop and better

No. 1 and No. 2 lumber

Select Structural

Utility and Economy
26

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

Figure 17—Projected proportion of each value class from Douglas-fir removals by period, 

all ownerships. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1997–2006 2017–2026 2037–2046

Douglas-fir removals (percent)

Shop and better

No. 1 and No. 2 lumber

Select Structural

Utility and Economy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1997–2006 2017–2026 2037–2046

Hemlock removals (percent)

Shop and better

No. 1 and No. 2 lumber

Select Structural

Utility and Economy

Figure 18—Projected proportion of each value class from Hemlock removals by period, all 

ownerships.
27

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

7 Japanese log sorts require straight logs with a clean, smooth surface. Logs for the higher 

grades must average 36 ft and have a small-end diameter of at least 14 in.

major drop in the yield of higher stress ratings of mechanically graded lumber. This 

result suggests that although manufacturers will be able to produce lumber with 

acceptable visual characteristics from a resource less than 40 years old, the lumber might not have mechanical properties that meet the requirements of the higher 

grades. This is particularly true for hemlock and is somewhat less of an issue for 

Douglas-fir. This could have a major influence on the ability to use this material for 

engineered wood products but might be alleviated through tree breeding programs 

and other silvicultural practices.

Discussion and Summary

The Pacific Northwest west-side is one of the major timber production regions in the 

Nation. Although the total removals for this region are projected to increase over 

50 percent by 2050 from current levels, inventories will be sustained for the next 

50 years. Douglas-fir remains the major species accounting for 63 percent of total 

removals for 1997–2056 (fig. 5). Relatively quickly all Douglas-fir removals from 

private lands will represent the 45- to 65-year age classes. The national forest will 

provide older Douglas-fir but in relatively limited volumes. Almost 50 percent of 

the total timber removals will come from the 10 west counties (see table 2), including Douglas, Lane, Coos, Linn, and Clatsop in Oregon, and Grays Harbor, Lewis, 

Pacific, Cowlitz, and King Counties in Washington, where much of the private land 

base is located. The sizes of future timber will be similar to log mixes today except 

for fewer logs in the 24-in plus category (both because of the collapse of the export 

market (which focused on logs larger than 14 in)7 and relatively low level of NFS removals). As industrial and nonindustrial private landowners continue to reduce the 

harvest age of removed Douglas-fir and hemlock, only minimal changes in visual 

lumber grade yield are anticipated. If harvest age falls much below 40 years, substantial changes in mechanical properties of both species, but particularly hemlock, 

could occur. Although this might not interfere with visual grading it might have a 

major influence on mechanical grade yields and the ability to use this material for 

engineered wood products. These changes emphasize the need for further studies on 

lumber grade yields related to the different species and tree diameter or age classes 

Finally, like all projections, these reflect a number of underlying assumptions 

that would be improved with further information. One critical assumption is that 

forest management in each county mirrors what is taking place across the region. 

One implication of the current assumption is that forest management is probably 
28

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

overstated for counties where forest management activities are less common (say 

near urban areas) and understated in other areas. 

Improving this assumption is difficult, however, given the periodic nature of 

forest inventories and surveys of landowner’s management intentions. These projections in their current form do provide a powerful starting point for discussion of 

how forest resources might evolve in this region. As a region with a rich history of 

forest management (see Haynes et al. 2003 for details), these projections suggest a 

future where landowners and managers improve forest stewardship by responding 

to the challenges imposed by changing markets and land uses.

Metric Equivalents

When you know: Multiply by: To get:

Inches (in) 2.54 Centimeters

Feet (ft) 0.3048 Meter

Cubic feet (ft3

) .0283 Cubic meters

Acres .405 Hectares

Thousand board feet, log scale 4.53 Cubic meters, log scale

Literature Cited

Barbour, J. 2004. Wood quality. In: Food formation and properties. Oxford, 

United Kingdom: Elsevier Encyclopedia of Forest Sciences. 1840–1846. 

Barbour, R.J.; Marshall, D.D.; Lowell, E.C. 2003. Managing for wood quality. 

In: Monserud, R.A.; Haynes, R.W.; Johnson, A.C., eds. Compatible forest 

management. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers: 

299–336. Chapter 11.

Barbour, R.J.; Zaborske, R.R.; McClellan, M.H.; Christian, L.; Golnick, D. 

2005. Young stand management options and their implications for wood quality 

and other values. Landscape and Urban Planning. 72(1–3): 79–94.

Haynes, R.W., tech. coord. 2003. An analysis of the timber situation in the United 

States: 1952 to 2050. Gen. Tech. Rep. GTR-PNW-560. Portland, OR: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 

254 p.

Haynes, R.W.; Adams, D.M.; Mills, J.R. 2003. Contemporary management 

regimes in the Pacific Northwest: balancing biophysical and economic concerns. 

In: Monserud, R.A.; Haynes, R.W.; Johnson, A.C., tech. eds. Compatible forest 

management: 267–296. Chapter 10. 
29

Projections of Timber Harvest in Western Oregon and Washington by County, Owner, Forest Type, and Age Class

Haynes, R.W.; Fight, R.D. 2004. Reconsidering price projections for selected 

grades of Douglas-fir, coast hem-fir, inland hem-fir, and ponderosa pine lumber. 

Res. Pap. PNW-RP-561. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 31 p.

Mills, J.; Kincaid, J. 1992. The Aggregate TimberLand Analysis System—

ATLAS: a comprehensive timber projection model. Gen. Tech. Rep. 

PNW-GTR-281. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 160 p.

SAS Institute. 2000. The SAS system: SAS OnlineDoc®, Version 8.2, HTML. 

Format [CD-ROM]. Cary, NC.

Smith, B.W.; Vissage, J.S.; Darr, D.R.; Sheffield, R.M. 2001. Forest resources of 

the United States, 1997. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-219. St. Paul, MN: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Research Station. 190 p.

Warren, D.D. 1991. Production, prices, employment and trade in Northwest forest 

industries, fourth quarter 1991. Resour. Bull. PNW-RB-187. Portland, OR: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 

104 p.

Warren, D.D. 2003. Production, prices, employment and trade in Northwest forest 

industries, all quarters 2001. Resour. Bull. PNW-RB-239. Portland, OR: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 

171 p.
30

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-633

1 Burch, F. 1999. Two decades of national forest harvest assumptions: regional silviculturists survey results by region and forest type. Unpublished report. [No pagination]. On file 

with: John Mills, Portland Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest Research Station, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208-3890.

Appendix: Management Assumptions

For National Forest System (NFS) timberland, only one site class was used, and 

we only conducted the cutting for midage class 85 years and older. Our decision of 

harvest type used in the model was based on a survey of national forest regional 

silviculturists coordinated by Burch (1999).1 We also assumed that NFS timberland 

area would remain constant through the projection period. 

For nonindustrial private forest timberlands, the management intensity was 

described in the fifth RPA timber assessment (Haynes 2003) as follows:

Pacific Northwest West—Management intensity classes (MICs) were developed for the Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla [Raf.] Sarg.) forest types as stratified by 

three site productivity classes. Both forest industry and nonindustrial private owners were assumed to employ the same practices, what varied was 

the amount of area each management invested under the various regimes 

(as discussed later). Five regimes were developed to represent Douglas-fir 

management: (MIC-1) custodial management; (MIC-2) plant only; (MIC3) plant and precommercial thin; (MIC-4) plant with genetically improved 

stock, precommercial thin, and fertilize; (MIC-5) all of MIC-4 plus commercial thinning. Differences in growth by treatment varied by site class, 

age class, initial stocking, and density change parameters. Figure 5 shows a 

summary of the average projected volume by age for Douglas-fir on forest 

industry lands when we aggregate across site classes. It can be seen that 

available volume is reduced from commercial thinning at age 45, which is 

the first age class that allows final harvesting for industrial stands. Just two 

regimes were developed for western hemlock, these were: (MIC-1) custodial management; and (MIC-3) plant and precommercial thin.
Pacifi c Northwest Research Station

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MARCH 2005