GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment 

United States Government Accountability Office

Washington, DC 20548 

April 14, 2005 

The Honorable John McCain 

The Honorable John F. Kerry 

United States Senate 

Subject: Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did Not Meet Reporting 

Deadline

For many years, scientists have observed a warming trend in the earth’s climate and 

have projected additional changes in the coming decades, with potential implications 

for human society. To provide for the development and coordination of a 

comprehensive and integrated U.S. research program that will assist the nation and 

the world in understanding, assessing, predicting, and responding to such changes, 

the Congress, in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (act), required the 

administration to, among other things, prepare a national global change research 

plan, a summary of the achievements and expenditures in the area of federal climate 

change research, and a scientific assessment. The scientific assessment is to be 

prepared at least every 4 years and is to 

(1) integrate, evaluate, and interpret research findings on climate change of the 

Global Change Research Program (implemented under the Global Change 

Research Plan) and scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; 

(2) analyze the effects of global change on the natural environment, human health 

and welfare, and other specified areas; and 

(3) analyze current trends in global change and project major trends for the next 25 

to 100 years. 

The first scientific assessment under the act was completed in November 2000, when 

the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in the Executive Office of the 

President1

 transmitted to the Congress a 600-plus page report entitled Climate 

 

1

OSTP submitted the assessment, which was prepared by the National Assessment Synthesis Team, a 

committee of experts. 
Page 2 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate 

Variability and Change. The report sought to identify the key climatic 

vulnerabilities of particular regions of the country and sectors of the economy in the 

context of other changes in the nation’s environment, resources, and economy. In 

addition to the full report, the administration published a 154-page summary of the 

findings for a more general audience. Detailed reports were also published on the 

possible impacts of climate change on specific regions and the possible effects of 

climate change on various environmental, economic, and social sectors. Some of 

these reports were published after November 2000, the final one in 2003. 

In 2002, the President announced the creation of the interagency Climate Change 

Science Program (CCSP) to coordinate and direct U.S. research efforts in the area of 

climate change. CCSP is now responsible for producing and submitting the climate 

change assessment and is led by the Assistant Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere 

at the Department of Commerce. In July 2003, CCSP’s strategic plan was transmitted 

to the Congress. The strategic plan contained a schedule for preparing the next 

assessment by publishing 21 reports, each focusing on a specific topic. 

The act also requires preparation of a national global change research plan. In 2002, 

under the auspices of CCSP, 13 federal departments and agencies contributed to the 

drafting of such a plan, and in December 2002, CCSP held a climate science 

workshop in Washington, D.C., at which climate scientists and other information 

users provided comments and suggestions on the draft plan. At CCSP’s request, 

under an agreement called for in the act, the National Academy of Sciences-National 

Research Council convened an expert committee to review the draft. According to 

the committee’s February 2003 review of CCSP’s draft strategic plan, the draft plan 

was not likely to produce deliverables, such as written reports, within 4 years. In 

response, CCSP officials developed a set of potential research topics that they 

believed would both satisfy the need for deliverables and meet the act’s reporting 

requirements. These research topics were subsequently reduced to 21 topics, which 

became the foundation of the current assessment. 

You asked us to evaluate the extent to which CCSP’s planned assessment meets the 

requirements of the act regarding the timing and content of such an assessment. In 

conducting our work, we reviewed and analyzed the act, its legislative history, and 

agency documents. We also interviewed the CCSP Director and other Department of 

Commerce officials. We conducted our work between June 2004 and February 2005 

in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. 

CCSP Did Not Submit an Assessment in 2004, as Required 

CCSP did not submit a scientific assessment in November 2004, 4 years after the 

previous assessment, as required by the act. Instead, CCSP’s July 2003 schedule 

called for issuing 21 shorter reports between 2005 and 2007. According to that 

schedule, the first 9 reports are due on or before September 30, 2005, and the other 12 

are due on or before September 30, 2007. Thus, by the time the last of these reports is 

 
Page 3 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

published, about 7 years will have elapsed since the publication of the 2000 report—

nearly twice the interval specified in the act. Further, the CCSP Director told us that 

he was not certain that even the first 9 reports would be published in accordance 

with this planned schedule. Of these 9 reports, a specific timeline is in place for only 

the first report, and that report is on schedule. For 3 other reports, draft 

prospectuses, the first step in the writing process, have been released for public 

comment, but for the remaining 5 reports, originally planned for September 2005, no 

prospectuses had been published as of February 2005. Those reports are now 

expected to be completed up to a year later than planned, September 2006. The 

remaining 12 reports are currently expected to be completed by September 2007, 

according to the CCSP Strategic Plan. The Director said the completion of these 12 

reports would be affected to some extent by the delay in issuing the first 9 reports, 

but the delay would be less than 12 months. 

According to the CCSP Director, work on the reports was delayed for three reasons: 

(1) the CCSP Committee, consisting of senior members of 13 federal departments and 

agencies overseen by three entities of the Executive Office of the President, 

underestimated the complexity and scope of the work involved to produce the 

reports; (2) the guidelines for preparing the assessment were delayed as a result of 

extensive legal discussions that included discussions about compliance with the Data 

Quality Act and Office of Management and Budget guidance on peer review; and (3) 

the director was severely ill for the better part of a year when the assessment was 

getting started, which slowed early momentum. 

The CCSP Director also told us that, considering the number of advancements in 

science and technology today compared with 1990, 4 years may not be enough time to 

complete a comprehensive assessment, such as that called for under the act. Further, 

over the past decade and a half, federally sponsored climate research has greatly 

expanded. For example, in fiscal year 1991, 9 agencies spent $954 million on climate 

change science, compared with fiscal year 2004, when 12 agencies spent about $2 

billion on climate change science. This has increased the burden of analyzing and 

synthesizing all of the research. The director also noted that the Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change, an international body that assesses scientific, technical, 

and socio-economic information on climate change, uses a 7-year reporting cycle. 

Unclear How CCSP’s Planned Reports Will Explicitly Address All Required 

Assessment Topics 

It is unclear how the 21 reports proposed in CCSP’s July 2003 strategic plan will 

address all three of the components of the assessment required under the act. The 

planned report topics generally appear to focus on either of these components: (1) 

the evaluation and interpretation of research findings on climate change and 

associated scientific uncertainties or (2) the analysis of current trends in global 

change and projection of major trends. (See the enclosure for the planned reports 

and their estimated publication dates.) However, CCSP has no comparable explicit 

plan for addressing the other major required component, assessing the effects of 

global change on the eight areas enumerated in the act: the natural environment, 

agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, 
Page 4 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity. The 

National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council noted in its February 2004 

review of the final CCSP strategic plan that, “The purpose of the plan’s proposed 

[reports] must also be clarified, because it is unclear whether they ... will ... meet the 

1990 Global Change Research Act requirement for impact assessments....” The 

Council noted that “...some areas specified in the Act, such as analyzing the effects 

on energy production and use, human health and welfare, and human social systems, 

are only peripherally addressed by this portfolio of products. Not a single [report] 

explicitly addresses the nation’s water supply.” 

CCSP officials agreed that some of the required topics are not explicitly included on 

the current list of planned reports, but told us that they are committed to reporting on 

all eight areas and are considering using various means of doing so. For example, a 

Commerce Department senior counsel said that as the authors of the 21 reports 

prepare their outlines, they will be asked to document how they intend to respond to 

the act and will have the opportunity to modify or extend their reports’ coverage. 

Moreover, the CCSP Director noted that additional reports could be commissioned if 

necessary to cover any assessment areas not otherwise addressed. However, we 

believe that, without a well-developed plan that links the reports to the eight 

assessment areas—and especially because the currently planned reports will be 

issued over a 3-year period—the Congress and other users will not know how, when, 

and where the eight areas will be addressed. Further, the CCSP Director stated that 

there are currently no plans to integrate and summarize the findings of the 21 

individual reports into a single volume, as was done in 2000. 

Conclusions 

The 4-year interval between assessments, which was established 15 years ago, may 

not allow sufficient time for CCSP to prepare an assessment that meets all of the act’s 

requirements. We believe that, if the deadline cannot be met for any future 

assessments, the CCSP Director should recommend that the CCSP interagency 

committee request an extension from the Congress. 

CCSP’s approach for reporting on the eight assessment areas contrasts with its more 

structured approach for addressing scientific uncertainties and trends. Without a 

well-developed plan for how it will address the eight assessment areas--and especially 

because the currently planned reports will be issued over a period of 3 or more 

years--the Congress and other users will not know when and where all of the issues 

will be addressed or whether the reports meet the requirements established by the 

act. Accordingly, we believe that a well-developed plan for addressing all eight 

assessment areas would provide assurance to the Congress and others on when and 

where all eight areas will be covered. 

Because the 21 individual reports are planned to address scientific uncertainties 

associated with climate change and other technical subjects and are to be issued over 

a period of 3 or more years, it may be difficult for the Congress and others to use this 

information effectively as the basis for making decisions on climate policy. We 
Page 5 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

believe it would be helpful to the Congress and other users if CCSP summarized the 

21 reports in a single volume for a general audience, as was done in 2000. 

Recommendations 

To ensure that the climate change assessments required under the Global Change 

Research Act of 1990 present information in a manner that is most useful for the 

Congress and the public, we recommend that the CCSP director take the following 

three actions: 

• develop plans to prepare the next assessment within the prescribed time frame, or 

if 4 years are insufficient to complete the assessment, recommend to the CCSP 

interagency Committee that CCSP request an extension from the Congress; 

• develop a specific plan to address all eight of the assessment areas; and 

• recommend to the CCSP interagency Committee that a summary report be 

prepared to integrate the findings of the 21 or more individual reports. 

Agency Comments and Our Evaluation 

We provided the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, who 

also serves as the Director, CCSP, with a draft of this report for review and comment. 

He generally agreed with our recommendations, but he provided no specific 

information on whether and when he intends to develop a plan that addresses all 

eight assessment areas. We continue to believe that such a plan should be developed. 

The Director also provided technical comments, which we incorporated. His 

comments and our response are included in enclosure II. 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

As agreed with your offices, we plan no further distribution of this report until 30 

days after the date of this report. At that time, we will send copies to the Director, 

CCSP, and other interested officials. The report will also be available on GAO’s home 
Page 6 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

page at http://www.gao.gov. If you have questions, please contact me or David 

Marwick at (202) 512-3841. Anne K. Johnson was the major contributor to this report. 

John Delicath and Amy Webbink also made important contributions. 

John B. Stephenson 

Director, Natural Resources and 

 Environment 

Enclosures - 2 
Page 7 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

Enclosure I 

Planned Reports on Topics Related to Climate Uncertainty

In its July 2003 strategic plan, CCSP identified five broad research goals for climate change, shown in 

the table below. Under each goal are the specific topics, 21 in all, that will comprise the national 

assessment. 

Estimated 

completion date 

(starting Oct. 2003) Report topics 

Reports that extend knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its 

natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed changes. 

 1 Within 2 years Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere -- steps for understanding and 

reconciling differences. 

2 Within 2 years Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes. 

3 2-4 years Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. 

Implications for attribution of causes of observed change. 

Reports that improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and 

related systems. 

4 Within 2 years Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in 

collaboration with the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP). Review of 

integrated scenario development and application. 

5 Within 2 years North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle. 

6 2-4 years Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate. 

7 2-4 years Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and 

implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate change. 

Reports that reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may 

change in the future. 

8 Within 2 years Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, 

and uncertainty analysis. 

9 2-4 years Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions 

scenarios developed through CCTP. 

10 2-4 years Climate extremes, including documentation of current extremes. Prospects for 

improving projections. 

11 2-4 years Risks of abrupt changes in global climate. 

Reports that improve understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed 

ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes. 
Page 8 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

12 Within 2 years Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea-level rise. 

13 2-4 years State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities 

(sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources. 

14 2-4 years Relationship between observed ecosystem changes and climate change. 

15 2-4 years Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and 

resources. 

16 2-4 years Scenario-based analysis of the climatological, environmental, resource, 

technological, and economic implications of different atmospheric 

concentrations of greenhouse gases. 

17 2-4 years State-of-the-science of socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate 

variability. 

18 2-4 years Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability 

sensitivities, potential impacts, and response options. 

Reports that explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and 

opportunities related to climate variability and change. 

19 Within 2 years Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in 

decision support for selected sectors and regions. 

20 Within 2 years Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating 

scientific uncertainty in decision-making. 

21 Within 2 years Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to inter-annual 

forecasts and observational data. 

Source: Climate Change Science Program. 
Page 9 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

Enclosure II 

Comments from the Department of Commerce 
Page 10 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

See comment 1. 

See comment 2. 

See comment 3. 
Page 11 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

See comment 4. 
Page 12 GAO-05-338R Climate Change Assessment

GAO’s Comments 

The following are GAO’s comments on the Department of Commerce letter dated 

April 4, 2005. 

1. We revised the text to include the word “Change,” as suggested. 

2. We deleted the number 30, as suggested. 

3. We revised the text, as suggested, replacing the word “third” with the word 

 “other.” 

4. Although the Director, CCSP, stated that he agrees with our recommendation, he 

did not provide specific information on whether and when a specific plan will be 

developed to address all eight assessment areas. We continue to believe that such 

a plan should be developed. 

(360528) 
This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the 

United States. It may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further 

permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain copyrighted images or 

other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to 

reproduce this material separately. 
The Government Accountability Office, the audit, evaluation and 

investigative arm of Congress, exists to support Congress in meeting its 

constitutional responsibilities and to help improve the performance and 

accountability of the federal government for the American people. GAO 

examines the use of public funds; evaluates federal programs and policies; 

and provides analyses, recommendations, and other assistance to help 

Congress make informed oversight, policy, and funding decisions. GAO’s 

commitment to good government is reflected in its core values of 

accountability, integrity, and reliability. 

The fastest and easiest way to obtain copies of GAO documents at no cost 

is through GAO’s Web site (www.gao.gov). Each weekday, GAO posts 

newly released reports, testimony, and correspondence on its Web site. To 

have GAO e-mail you a list of newly posted products every afternoon, go 

to www.gao.gov and select “Subscribe to Updates.” 

The first copy of each printed report is free. Additional copies are $2 each. 

A check or money order should be made out to the Superintendent of 

Documents. GAO also accepts VISA and Mastercard. Orders for 100 or 

more copies mailed to a single address are discounted 25 percent. Orders 

should be sent to: 

U.S. Government Accountability Office 

441 G Street NW, Room LM 

Washington, D.C. 20548 

To order by Phone: Voice: (202) 512-6000 

TDD: (202) 512-2537 

Fax: (202) 512-6061 

Contact: 

Web site: www.gao.gov/fraudnet/fraudnet.htm 

E-mail: fraudnet@gao.gov

Automated answering system: (800) 424-5454 or (202) 512-7470 

Gloria Jarmon, Managing Director, JarmonG@gao.gov (202) 512-4400 

U.S. Government Accountability Office, 441 G Street NW, Room 7125 

Washington, D.C. 20548 

Paul Anderson, Managing Director, AndersonP1@gao.gov (202) 512-4800 

U.S. Government Accountability Office, 441 G Street NW, Room 7149 

Washington, D.C. 20548 

GAO’s Mission 

Obtaining Copies of 

GAO Reports and 

Testimony 

Order by Mail or Phone 

To Report Fraud, 

Waste, and Abuse in 

Federal Programs 

Congressional 

Relations 

Public Affairs 

PRINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER