GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

April 29, 2005 

The Honorable Terry Everett 

Chairman 

The Honorable Silvestre Reyes 

Ranking Member 

Strategic Forces Subcommittee 

Committee on Armed Services 

House of Representatives 

Subject: Nuclear Weapons: Preliminary Results of Review of Campaigns to 

Provide Scientific Support for the Stockpile Stewardship Program 

In 1992, the United States began a unilateral moratorium on testing nuclear 

weapons. Subsequently, in 1993, the President and the Congress directed the 

Department of Energy (DOE) to establish a program to ensure the preservation of 

the United States’ core intellectual and technical competencies in nuclear 

weapons without testing.1

 In response, DOE developed the Stockpile Stewardship 

Program to (1) increase understanding of the basic phenomena associated with 

nuclear weapons, (2) provide a better predictive understanding of the safety and 

reliability of nuclear weapons, and (3) ensure a strong scientific and technical 

basis for future U. S. nuclear weapons policy objectives. The National Nuclear 

Security Administration (NNSA), a separately organized agency within DOE, is 

responsible for carrying out the Stockpile Stewardship Program. This 

responsibility encompasses many different tasks, including activities associated 

with the research, design, development, simulation, modeling, and nonnuclear 

testing of nuclear weapons, as well as the planning, assessment, and certification 

of the weapons’ safety and reliability. Three nuclear weapons design laboratories 

support NNSA’s mission: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in 

California, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in New Mexico, and Sandia 

National Laboratories in California and New Mexico. 

In 1999, DOE developed a new structure for the Stockpile Stewardship Program 

that included a series of what DOE called “campaigns,” which DOE defined as 

technically challenging, multiyear, multifunctional efforts to develop and maintain 

the critical capabilities needed to continue assessing the safety and reliability of 

the nuclear stockpile into the foreseeable future without underground testing. 

DOE originally created 18 campaigns that were designed to focus its efforts in 

science and computing, applied science and engineering, and production 

 

1

National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1994, Pub. L. No. 103-160, §. 3138 (Nov. 30, 

1993). 

United States Government Accountability Office

Washington, DC 20548 
2 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

readiness. Other program activities associated with the Stockpile Stewardship 

Program include “directed stockpile work,” which includes the activities that 

directly support maintaining the current weapons in the stockpile, and “readiness 

in technical base and facilities,” which includes the physical infrastructure and 

operational readiness required to conduct campaigns and directed stockpile work 

activities. 

The Stockpile Stewardship Program is now over 10 years old, and NNSA’s 

campaign structure is in its sixth year. In this context, you asked us to determine 

(1) how NNSA has organized the campaigns to provide the scientific capabilities 

required to support the nuclear stockpile, (2) the extent to which the scientific 

campaigns have met their overall goals and supporting milestones, and (3) the 

effectiveness of NNSA’s current planning process for the campaigns. To address 

these issues, we identified the six individual NNSA campaigns that primarily deal 

with providing the scientific capability required to support the nuclear stockpile. 

For these campaigns, we reviewed NNSA campaign planning documents and 

other documents related to campaign performance, such as external review panel 

reports. We also interviewed campaign program managers at NNSA, LLNL, and 

LANL. We focused our work principally on two campaigns—the Primary 

Assessment Technologies (Primary) and Secondary Assessment Technologies 

(Secondary) campaigns—because these campaigns set the requirements for the 

experimental data and computer models needed to assess and certify the 

performance of nuclear weapons. We briefed your staff on the preliminary results 

of our review. This letter summarizes our briefing. Enclosure I contains the 

briefing slides we presented. We conducted the work for this letter from August 

2004 through April 2005 in accordance with generally accepted government 

auditing standards. Our work is continuing, and we expect to issue a final report 

on NNSA’s Stockpile Stewardship Program scientific campaigns in December 

2005. 

In summary: 

NNSA has six individual campaigns that are intended to provide the scientific 

capability required to support the nuclear stockpile. The Primary and Secondary 

campaigns are designed to analyze and understand the different scientific 

phenomena that occur in the primary and secondary stages of a nuclear weapon 

during detonation.2

 As such, the Primary and Secondary campaigns set the 

requirements for the experimental data and computer models needed to assess 

and certify the performance of nuclear weapons. Four other campaigns—

Dynamic Materials Properties, Advanced Radiography, Advanced Simulation and 

Computing, and Inertial Confinement Fusion and High Yield—provide the 

experimental and computational support needed to meet the goals set by the 

Primary and Secondary campaigns. For example, the Advanced Simulation and 

Computing campaign provides the leading-edge computers and models needed to 

 

2

Modern nuclear weapons have two stages: the primary, which is the initial source of energy, and 

the secondary, which is driven by the primary and provides additional explosive energy. 
3 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

simulate the performance of nuclear weapons without underground testing. From 

fiscal year 2001 to fiscal year 2004, NNSA spent about $5.8 billion on these six 

campaigns. 

The Primary and Secondary campaigns have not achieved the overall goals 

originally established for them in 1999; however, the Primary and Secondary 

campaigns have made progress in completing important supporting milestones. 

Initially, the Primary campaign set goals for certifying the primary stage of a 

nuclear weapon to within a stated primary yield level during the 2005 to 2010 time 

frame. The goals for the Secondary campaign were closely linked to the goals 

established for the Primary campaign. However, achieving these goals has been 

technically challenging and has depended on the timely completion of major 

facilities such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at LLNL and the Dual Axis 

Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility (DARHT) at LANL—both of which have 

experienced major delays due to problems with technical issues and project 

management and are still not complete.3

 In 2003, NNSA modified the original 

goals for the Primary and Secondary campaigns and extended them into the 2010 

to 2014 time frame. 

Between 1999 and 2003, NNSA did not have a uniform planning process for 

approving and tracking campaign milestones, and the planning process that did 

exist was not applied in a consistent manner at LANL and LLNL. However, in 

2003, NNSA implemented a new planning process for the campaigns, including the 

establishment of a uniform set of requirements for campaign program and 

implementation plans. In addition, NNSA implemented a system for tracking the 

progress of major milestones through the use of a milestone reporting database 

and a quarterly performance review meeting for managers involved in the 

Stockpile Stewardship Program. However, NNSA officials have acknowledged 

that current campaign plans still do not provide clear linkages between goals and 

supporting milestones, and they do not adequately coordinate and set priorities 

for the scientific research currently conducted across the weapons complex. In 

response, NNSA officials are revising campaign plans and overall milestones for 

the Primary campaign for fiscal year 2006. Finally, NNSA, LANL, and LLNL 

officials have endorsed the use of a new methodology for assessing and certifying 

nuclear warheads. This methodology, known as the Quantification of Margins and 

Uncertainties, draws together data from simulations, experiments, and expert 

judgments to quantify confidence factors for the key potential failure areas in a 

nuclear weapon. However, NNSA and laboratory officials, as well as outside 

experts, acknowledge that this methodology is still incomplete and evolving. 

According to NNSA plans, full implementation of this methodology is not 

expected until the 2010 to 2014 time frame. 

 

3

DARHT was originally scheduled for completion in 2003 and is now scheduled for completion in 

2008. NIF will not be complete until 2008, 5 years after the original completion date of 2003. 
4 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

We provided NNSA with a draft of our report and received oral comments from 

NNSA’s Assistant Deputy Administrator for Research, Development, and 

Simulation. NNSA generally agreed with our findings. With respect to our 

statement on the implementation of the Quantification of Margins and 

Uncertainties methodology, NNSA stated that it plans to establish intermediate 

milestones to support the implementation of this methodology prior to 2010. 

NNSA also stated that it believes this methodology provides a clearer and more 

comprehensive approach to assessing the performance of nuclear weapons than 

was provided by the initial goals established for the Primary and Secondary 

campaigns. In addition, NNSA made technical clarifications that we incorporated 

as appropriate in this report. 

_ _ _ _ _ 

As agreed with your offices, we will make copies of this letter available to others 

upon request. This letter will also be available at no charge on GAO’s Web site at 

http://www.gao.gov. 

If you or your staff have any questions about this letter or need additional 

information, please contact me at (202) 512-3841 or James Noel, Assistant 

Director, at (202) 512-3591. 

Major contributors to this letter include Jason Holliday, Keith Rhodes, Judy 

Pagano, Doreen Feldman, Carol Herrnstadt Shulman, and Peter Ruedel. 

Gene Aloise 

Director, Natural Resources 

 and Environment 

Enclosure
Enclosure I 

5 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

Preliminary Results of Review of Stockpile Stewardship Program Scientific 

Campaigns 

1

Preliminary Results of Review of Stockpile 

Stewardship Program Scientific Campaigns

Briefing for the Staff of the 

Strategic Forces Subcommittee

Armed Services Committee

House of Representatives

April 4, 2005
Enclosure I 

6 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

2

Background

• The President and the Congress in 1993 directed that a science-based 

Stockpile Stewardship Program be developed to maintain the nuclear 

stockpile without nuclear testing.

• In 1999, the Department of Energy (DOE) developed a new program 

activity structure for stockpile stewardship that included campaigns, 

which are programs designed to develop and maintain the critical

capabilities needed to enable the continued assessment of the 

certification basis of the stockpile into the foreseeable future without 

nuclear testing.

• The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a separately 

organized agency within DOE, is responsible for carrying out the

Stockpile Stewardship Program.

• Three nuclear weapons design laboratories support NNSA’s mission: 

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National 

Laboratory (LANL), and Sandia National Laboratories.
Enclosure I 

7 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

3

Objectives

• We are reviewing NNSA’s management of the campaigns 

that provide scientific capabilities required to support the 

Stockpile Stewardship Program. Specifically, we are 

determining:

• How NNSA has organized the campaigns to provide the 

scientific capabilities required to support the stockpile,

• The extent to which the campaigns have met their 

overall goals and supporting milestones, and

• The effectiveness of NNSA’s current planning process 

for the campaigns.
Enclosure I 

8 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

4

Scope and Methodology

• To address these issues, we have performed the following 

work to date, focusing principally on the Primary and 

Secondary Assessment Technologies campaigns:

• Identified six campaigns that deal primarily with providing 

the scientific capability required to support the stockpile;

• Interviewed program managers at NNSA, LLNL, and 

LANL;

• Reviewed campaign planning documents; and

• Reviewed other documents related to campaign 

performance, such as external review panel reports.
Enclosure I 

9 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

5

Summary

• Six individual NNSA campaigns provide the scientific 

capability required to support the stockpile.

• The Primary and Secondary campaigns have not achieved 

the overall goals established for them in 1999. However, 

they have made progress in completing supporting 

milestones.

• NNSA has made changes to improve its planning process 

for the campaigns but still lacks a road map that describes 

how the Primary and Secondary campaigns will achieve 

their long-term goals.
Enclosure I 

10 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

6

Organization of Campaigns

• Six individual NNSA campaigns provide the scientific 

capability required to support the stockpile.

• Two campaigns—Primary and Secondary Assessment Technologies—set the requirements for experimental 

data, codes, and models needed to assess the 

performance of a nuclear weapon.

• Four other campaigns support the needs of the Primary and Secondary campaigns.

• Dynamic Materials Properties campaign

• Advanced Radiography campaign

• Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) campaign

• Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) and High Yield 

campaign
Enclosure I 

11 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

7

Organization of Campaigns (cont.)

NNSA Expenditures for Campaigns, Fiscal Years 2001-2004

Dollars in millions

Advanced 78.4 93.5 70.5 52.1 294.5

Radiography

Total 1,413.1 1,454.8 1,497.5 1,417.0 5,782.4

ICF 471.6 553.0 493.2 467.2 1,985.0

ASC 705.0 645.1 759.7 719.1 2,828.9

Dynamic Materials 72.6 75.2 81.0 85.4 314.2

Properties

Secondary 40.0 39.2 46.8 53.1 179.1

Primary 45.5 48.8 46.3 40.1 180.7

FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 Total

Source: NNSA.
Enclosure I 

12 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

8

Campaign Goals and Milestones

• The Primary and Secondary campaigns have not achieved the overall 

goals established for them in 1999.

• In 1999, DOE established a planning structure for the campaigns, including a mix of goals and milestones contained in program and

implementation plans for each campaign.

• The Primary campaign set goals for certifying weapons to within a stated yield level in the 2005-2010 time frame. These goals were 

closely linked to the goals established for the Secondary campaign. 

• DOE recognized that achieving these goals would be technically difficult and would depend on the completion of major facilities such 

as the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and the Dual Axis 

Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility.

• Major facilities such as NIF and DARHT are still not complete, with inadequate project management and technical problems as major 

causes.

• NNSA modified the goals for the Primary and Secondary campaigns in 2003, with key milestones now due in the 2010-2014 time frame.
Enclosure I 

13 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

9

Campaign Goals and Milestones (cont.)

• However, the Primary and Secondary campaigns have 

made progress in completing supporting milestones.

• Between 1999 and 2003, NNSA did not have a uniform 

planning process for approving and tracking campaign 

plans and milestones. As a result, we were limited in our 

ability to assess campaign performance.

• In addition, LANL and LLNL officials did not initially implement the campaign planning structure in a 

consistent manner.

• However, by reviewing plans and conducting interviews with NNSA and LLNL officials on a subset of technical 

milestones, we verified that most of the technical 

milestones we examined for the Primary and Secondary 

campaigns have been achieved.
Enclosure I 

14 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

10

NNSA’s Planning Process

• NNSA has made changes to improve its planning process 

for the campaigns.

• In 2003, NNSA implemented a new planning process for 

the campaigns, including a uniform set of requirements 

for campaign program and implementation plans.

• NNSA also implemented a system for tracking the 

progress of major milestones through the use of 

quarterly performance reviews.

• This planning structure has taken place within the 

context of a larger, agency-wide process called the 

Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Evaluation 

process, which NNSA implemented in fiscal year 2004.
Enclosure I 

15 GAO-05-636R Stockpile Stewardship Scientific Campaigns 

11

NNSA’s Planning Process (cont.)

• However, NNSA still lacks a road map that describes how the Primary 

and Secondary campaigns will achieve their long-term goals.

• NNSA officials have acknowledged that current campaign plans do 

not provide clear linkages between goals and long-term milestones, 

and do not adequately coordinate and prioritize the scientific 

research currently conducted across the weapons complex.

• NNSA officials are revising campaign plans and high-level 

milestones for the primary campaign for fiscal year 2006.

• NNSA and the weapons labs have endorsed the use of the 

Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties methodology for 

assessing and certifying nuclear warheads. However, NNSA and 

lab officials, as well as outside experts, acknowledge that this

methodology is still incomplete and evolving. According to NNSA

plans, full implementation of this methodology is not expected until 

the 2010-2014 time frame.

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