1 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPublic Service of Colorado Ponnequin Wind FarmBUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAMEnergy Conservation StandardsFramework Document forHigh-Intensity Discharge LampsLucy deButtsDepartment of EnergyEnergy Efficiency & Renewable EnergyDocket Number: EERE-2010-BT-STD-0043HIDLamps-2010-STD-0043@ee.doe.govMarch 29, 20122 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Introductions• Role of the Facilitator• Ground Rules– Listen as an ally– Focus on issues– Use short, succinct statements/keep to the point– Hold sidebar conversations outside the room– One person speaks at a time (raise hand to be recognized; state yourname for the record)– Set cell phones to silent/vibrate• Housekeeping Items• Agenda Review• Opening RemarksWelcome and Introduction3 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govMorning Agenda9:00 – 9:05 am9:05 – 9:20 am9:20 – 9:40 am9:40 – 10:15 am10:15 – 10:30 am10:30 – 11:00 am11:00 – 11:45 am11:45 am – 12:45 pmWelcomeIntroductions and Agenda ReviewOpening RemarksRegulatory History, Rulemaking Overview, and Scope ofCoverageBreakMarket and Technology Assessment and ScreeningAnalysisEngineering Analysis and Product Price DeterminationBreak for Lunch4 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govAfternoon Agenda12:45 – 1:00 pm1:00 – 1:15 pm1:15 – 1:45 pm1:45 – 2:15 pm2:15 – 2:30 pm2:30 – 2:40 pm2:40 – 3:10 pm3:10 – 3:30 pmEnergy Use AnalysisMarkup AnalysisLife-Cycle Cost (LCC) and Payback Period AnalysisShipments Analysis, National Impact Analysis, andLife-Cycle Cost Subgroup AnalysisBreakManufacturer Impact AnalysisUtility Impact Analysis, Employment Impact Analysis,Emissions Analysis, and Regulatory Impact AnalysisOther issues and comments; Closing remarks5 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• The Department is broadcasting thismeeting live over the Internet.• DOE is providing the webcast to accommodate stakeholders thatare unable to attend the public meeting in person.• The web broadcast allows stakeholders to listen in and view theslides.• All stakeholders are encouraged to submit written comments afterthe public meeting.Listening Via the Webcast6 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPurpose of the Public Meeting• Present the procedural and analytical approaches to evaluate energyconservation standards for HID lamps.• Invite comment on the energy conservations standards frameworkdocument.• Discuss next steps in the rulemaking.• Encourage participants to submit data, information, summarystatements, and written comments, including additional issues fordiscussion.7 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRequest for CommentItem 1:Although DOE invites comment on all aspects of thematerial presented in this document, several specific issueson which DOE seeks comment are set out in commentboxes like this one. DOE usesthese comment boxes tohighlight issues and ask specific questions regarding theapproaches DOE plans to follow to conduct the analysesrequired for the energy conservation standards rulemaking.Issue box numbering corresponds to the list of items published at the endof the framework document, available at:http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/high_intensity_discharge_lamps.html.The deadline for submitting comments isApril 12, 2012.8 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govOpening RemarksMeeting participants are invited to provide openingremarks or statements at this time.9 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisLCC and Payback Period AnalysesShipments Analysis; NIA AnalysisNOPR AnalysesPublic Meeting Slides Topics4567Market and Technology; Screening2Engineering; Product Price Determination31Overview; Scope of Coverage10 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRegulatory History• The Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT 1992) amended the EnergyPolicy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) by adding HID lamps ascovered equipment and requiring DOE to:−Determine whether energy conservation standards for HID lamps would betechnologically feasible and economically justified, and would likely result insignificant energy savings;−Prescribe testing requirements within 30 months for those HID lamps forwhich standards are justified; and−Prescribe energy conservation standards within 18 months of establishingtesting requirements.• On July 1, 2010, DOE published a positive final determination regardingHID lamps. 75 FR 37975.• On December 15, 2011, DOE published a notice of proposedrulemaking (NOPR) for test procedures for HID lamps. 76 FR 77914.11 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govHID Lamps Rulemaking Schedule201320162012 2014 201520172018Milestone DateFramework Document February 2012Availability of the Interim Analysis (projected)September 2012Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (projected)June 2013Final Rule (projected)July 2014Compliance Date (projected)July 2017Item 2:DOE welcomes comments on how it shouldcoordinate development of the final rules for HID lamps andmetal halide lamp fixtures (MHLF).12 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEPCA Factors42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i) directs DOE to consider seven factors whensetting energy conservation standards.EPCA Factors DOE Analysis1. Economic impact on consumers andmanufacturersLife-Cycle Cost AnalysisManufacturer Impact Analysis2. Lifetime operating cost savings comparedto increased cost for the productLife-Cycle Cost Analysis3. Total projected energy savings National Impact Analysis4. Impact on utility or performanceEngineering AnalysisScreening Analysis5. Impact of any lessening of competition Manufacturer Impact Analysis6. Need for national energy conservation National Impact Analysis7. Other factors the Secretary considersrelevantEnvironmental AssessmentUtility Impact AnalysisEmployment Impact Analysis13 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScope of Coverage: Definitions• High-intensity discharge is the generic name for a family of lampsincluding mercury vapor (MV), metal halide (MH), and high-pressuresodium (HPS) lamps.• Although low-pressure sodium lamps are often included in the family,they are not included in the definition set forth in EPCA, and aretherefore not considered in this rulemaking.• Catalogs also offer “electrodeless” lamps (also referred to as lightemitting plasma lamps) that maybe a subcategory of MV, MH, or HPSlamps.Emit light in a process related to MV, MH, and HPS lamps.Gas composition appears most similar to MH lamps.Item 3:DOE welcomes comment on whether electrodelessHID lamps (also referred to as light-emitting plasma) are asubcategory of MV, HPS, or MH lamps.14 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScope of Coverage:Wattage and CCT• HID lamps span a range of wattages, though these wattages varyaccording to lamp technology. Initial light output could also be used todescribe the range of lamps available.• Similarly, HID lamps are available with a variety of correlated colortemperatures (CCT), depending on lamp type and design.• DOE is considering only a subset of available wattages and CCTsbecause the excluded lamps represent a small number of availableequipment, and therefore do not represent significant potential energysavings.15 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScope of Coverage: Summary• DOE is considering including the following lamps in the scope ofcoverage:• DOE is considering excluding the following lamps from the scope ofcoverage:HID lamps designed and labeled for use with electronic ballasts onlyDirectional HID lampsSelf-ballasted HID lampsColored HID lampsSpecialty application MV lampsLamp Type Rated Wattage CCTMetal Halide50 and2000 W2500 and6999 KMercury Vapor50 and1000 W3200 and6800 KHigh Pressure Sodium50 and1000 W1900 and2700 K16 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScope of CoverageItem 4:DOE welcomes comments on its decision to define thescope of coverage using ratedwattage instead of lumen outputand the range of wattages included in coverage.Item 5:DOE welcomes comments on its decision to exclude HIDlamps designed and labeled for use with electronic ballasts only,directional HID lamps, self-ballasted HID lamps, and high CCTlamps from the scope of coverage. DOE also requests commentson the unique characteristics of colored HID lamps.17 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScope of CoverageItem 6:DOE welcomes comments on whether lamps for specialtyapplications have defining characteristics that differentiate themfrom lamps used for general illumination purposes. In addition,DOE welcomes comments on whether specialty applicationsrelevant to MV technology can also be served by HPS or MHtechnology.Item 7:DOE welcomes comment on any additional lamps thatshould be excluded from the scope of coverage.DOE welcomes comments on the tentative decision to not includestandby and off modes in the energy conservation standard.18 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govMetrics – Omnidirectional Lamps• DOE is considering establishing a minimum initial lamp efficacyrequirement for HID lamps. Initial lamp efficacy is defined as the ratio oflight output divided by lamp input power at the beginning of the life ofthe lamp.• DOE is also considering setting a maximum lamp wattage requirementbased on initial lamp light output.19 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govMetrics – Directional Lamps• Should DOE decide to include directional lamps within the scope ofcoverage, they would require a different metric to assess efficacy.• Directional lamps are typically characterized by beam angle; DOE couldrequire a minimum center-beam candlepower (CBCP) related to thebeam angle of the lamp for a given lamp shape and diameter.• Directional lamps can also be characterized by beam lumens (lightoutput within the region outlined by the beam angle); DOE could requireminimum beam lumens per input watt.20 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govMetricsItem 13:DOE welcomes comments related to the appropriatenessof lamp efficacy as one of the potential metrics in HID lamp energyconservation standards.Item 14:DOE welcomes comments on developing a center-beamintensity metric related to directional lamps. DOE requestsinformation on other possible metrics in development or othermetrics that DOE should consider, including beam lumens perwatt. DOE requests comments on the appropriate definition ofbeam angle.21 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisLCC and Payback Period AnalysesShipments Analysis; NIA AnalysisNOPR AnalysesPublic Meeting Slides Topics4567Overview; Scope of Coverage1Engineering; Product Price Determination32Market and Technology; Screening22 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the Interim AnalysisFrameworkDocumentInterimAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentMarkup Analysis23 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPurpose of Market and TechnologyAssessment; Screening Analysis• Market and Technology AssessmentDetermine equipment classesIdentify technology options to improve efficacy• Screening AnalysisScreen out technology options that DOE will not consider in theengineering analysis based on (1) technological feasibility; (2)practicability to manufacture, install, and service; (3) adverse impactson utility to consumers or availability; and (4) adverse impacts on healthor safety.24 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEquipment Classes• DOE divides covered equipment into classes by:the type of energy used;capacity of the product; orother performance-related features that justify different standard levels,such as features affecting consumer utility.• DOE establishes separate energyconservation standards for eachequipment class.• DOE is considering establishing equipment classes based on CCTand initial light output.• Because DOE is considering factors such as CCT and light output,DOE is not considering separating equipment classes based on lamptechnology (i.e., not by MH, MV, and HPS).25 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEquipment Classes: CCT• HID lamps are available with different CCT values depending on lamptype and design.• Equipment usage indicates that some customers specify lamps of aparticular color temperature for certain applications, indicating CCTprovides utility to the consumer.• CCT is related to lamp efficacy (i.e., higher CCT lamps generally havelower efficacy).• Based on the difference in efficacy and consumer utility, DOE isconsidering separating equipment classes by CCT.Directionality Ballast Location CCT RangeOmni-Directional Externally Ballasted1900 – 2500 K2501 – 5000 K5001 – 6999 K26 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEquipment Classes:Initial Light Output• HID lamps are available with a variety of light outputs and input powers.Light output and input power are highly correlated (increased inputpower typically leads to increased lightoutput), but DOE finds that lightoutput more directly addresses thefeature valued by the customer.• Customers require more or less light output from a lamp depending onthe intended use for the lamp, indicating consumer utility for thisfeature.• DOE’s review of catalog data indicates that lamps of increased lightoutput (or increased input power) are generally more efficacious.• Based on the difference in lamp efficacy and consumer utility, DOE isconsidering establishing separate equipment classes on the basis ofinitial light output.27 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEquipment Classes: ExampleIn summary, DOE proposed the following equipment classes:Directionality Ballast Location CCT Range Lumen RangeOmni-Directional Externally Ballasted1900 – 2500 K13,000 lm3,0015,000 lm5,0018,000 lm8,00111,000 lm11,001 – 20,000 lm20,001 – 40,000 lm40,001 – 100,000 lm> 100,001 lm2501 – 5000 K1 – 3,000 lm3,001 – 5,000 lm5,001 – 8,000 lm8,001 – 12,000 lm12,001 – 20,000 lm20,001 – 50,000 lm> 50,001 lmContinued28 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEquipment ClassesItem 16:DOE welcomes comments on the proposed equipmentclasses for HID lamps and additional approaches to defining classesin accordance with the requirements of 42 U.S.C. 6295(q).Specifically, DOE seeks input on its proposal to establish equipmentclasses based on lumen output (rather than rated wattage) andCCT, and the appropriateness of the lumen output and CCT rangesselected.Item 17:DOE seeks comment on whether the proposed equipmentclasses should be further subdivided by lamp orientation (alsoknown as operating or burn position and typically includes vertical,horizontal, universal) or by other lamp characteristics (e.g., enclosedor open fixture rating, CRI, base type, coated or clear envelope).DOE also seeks comment on whether equipment classes should beseparated based on lamp technology.29 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govTechnology Options• Measures that improve efficacy are called technology options, and theyare based on existing technologies aswell as working prototypes.• MV lampsThe common pathway to increased efficacy is a change of technology fromMV to MH or HPS.• HPS lampsHID lamp catalogs indicate a range ofHPS lamp efficacies, but DOE is notcurrently aware of the specific technology options used to achieve differentthe lamp efficacies.DOE does not consider other lamp technologies to be substitutes for HPS.30 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govTechnology OptionsTechnology Option DescriptionStarting Method Use pulse-start instead of probe-start technologyArc TubeDesignArc Tube Material Use ceramic rather than quartz arc tubesArc Tube Size Use formed or offset electrodeArc Tube Fill Gas Use novel gasesLamp Electrodes Use electrodes with improved design or material• DOE is aware of a set of technology options that could improve MHlamp efficacy. DOE intends to evaluate the following:Item 18:DOE welcomes comments on the preliminary technologyoptions identified in this section, and on whether there are additionaltechnology options it should consider.31 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScreening Analysis• DOE will consider each technology option in light of four screening criteria:technological feasibility;practicability to manufacture, install, and service;adverse effects on product utility or availability; andadverse effects on health or safety.• Those technology options that pass the four screening criteria are calleddesign options; these options will be considered in the engineeringanalysis as ways to improve efficacy.Item 19:DOE welcomes comments on how the above fourscreening criteria might apply to technology options underconsideration by DOE, and how the screening criteria apply to anyadditional technology option(s) that an interested partyrecommends to DOE.32 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisLCC and Payback Period AnalysesShipments Analysis; NIA AnalysisNOPR AnalysesPublic Meeting Slides Topics4567Overview; Scope of Coverage1Market and Technology; Screening23Engineering; Product Price Determination33 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the Interim AnalysisFrameworkDocumentInterimAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentMarkup Analysis34 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEngineering Analysis MethodologyChoose equipment classes to be analyzed in the engineeringanalysis.Identify baseline models in each representative equipmentclass that will serve as reference points to assess changesdue to more stringent standard levels.Select more efficacious replacements for each baseline modelbased on design options.Develop candidate standard levels (CSLs) that range from thebaseline to the maximum technologically feasible.Scale results to equipment classes not analyzed.ScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy Levels35 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRepresentative Equipment Classesand Baseline Models• DOE chooses representative equipment classes toconcentrate its analytical effort.DOE selects representative equipment classes based onhigh market volumes or unique performance characteristics.DOE selected 9 equipment classes as representative.• The baseline model typically represents the mostcommon, least efficacious model on the market.DOE identifies a baseline model in each representativeequipment class.In cases where a large portion of the market has alreadyadopted a more efficacious lamp, DOE is consideringanalyzing two baseline models.ScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy Levels36 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRepresentative Equipment Classesand Baseline ModelsClass Description Baseline ModelOmni-Directional, Externally BallastedLamps 1500-2500 K3,001 – 5,000 lm 50 W HPS8,001 – 11,000 lm 100 W HPS20,001 – 40,000 lm 250 W HPS40,001 – 100,000 lm 400 W HPSOmni-Directional, Externally BallastedLamps 2501–5000 K3,001 – 5,000 lm100 W MV70 W Pulse-Start MH8,001 – 12,000 lm175 W MV150 W Probe-Start MH12,001 – 20,000 lm250 W MV175 W Probe-Start MH20,001 – 50,000 lm400 W MV400 W Probe-Start MH50,001 lm1000 W Probe-Start MHScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy Levels37 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRepresentative Equipment Classesand Baseline ModelsScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy LevelsItem 20:DOE welcomes comments on the selection ofrepresentative equipment classes for HID lamps.Item 21:DOE welcomes comments on the selection ofbaseline models for the proposed representativeequipment classes.38 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIdentify Higher EfficacyReplacements• In identifying more efficacious lamps, DOE will use adatabase of HID lamp catalog information.• DOE chooses more efficacious replacements with similarlumen outputs and performance characteristics (e.g.,CRI, CCT) to those of the baseline models, whilereducing system input power.• DOE notes that its analysis of energy consumption willbe based on a lamp-and-ballast system because thelamp and ballast operate together in practice.ScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy Levels39 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIdentify Higher EfficacyReplacementsScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy LevelsItem 22:DOE welcomes comments on more efficacious(and equal lumen output) substitutes for each proposedbaseline model, up to and including the max tech lampthat would result in reduced energy consumption.Item 23:DOE welcomes comment on the current andfuture availability of reduced wattage lamps and thepracticality of reducing and respacing fixtures. DOE alsoinvites comment on whether barriers exist to developingnew lamps that would provide reduced wattagealternatives to today’s lamps.40 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govDevelop Efficacy Levels• After identifying the more efficacious substitutes foreach baseline model, DOE will develop CSLs, a setof efficacy levels considered in the interim analysesthat span the range of lamp efficacies from baselineto the maximum technologically feasible.• CSLs for HID lamps are generally based onconsideration of several factors, including:Design options associated with the specific lampsbeing studied; andThe maximum technologically feasible efficacy level.ScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy Levels41 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govDevelop Efficacy Levels• The equipment class structure reflects a “binned”approach, which establishes a constant lamp efficacyrequirement for particular ranges of light output.• Although a constant efficacy requirement simplifiesstandards for manufacturers, it would subject all lampsin a particular light output range to the same standard,which could encourage the market towards the higherlight output (and higher input power) end of the bin.• DOE is also considering an equation-based approach,which would establish lamp efficacy requirements as afunction of light output.ScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy Levels42 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govDevelop Efficacy LevelsScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy LevelsItem 24:DOE welcomes comments on the use of anequation-based versus binned efficacy level approach forHID lamps.Item 25:DOE welcomes input on whether highlyefficacious lighting systems could be eliminated given aparticular lamp efficacy requirement.43 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScale Results• For the equipment classes not analyzed directly,DOE plans to scale the engineering results andCSLs from the representative equipment class testdata based on ratios observed in catalog data or byextrapolation using regression equations.ScaleResultsChooseRepresentativeEquipmentClassesSelect BaselineModelsIdentify HigherEfficacyReplacementsDevelopEfficacy LevelsItem 26:DOE welcomes comments on its proposedapproach to scale from representative equipmentclasses to classes not directly analyzed in theengineering analysis.44 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 28:DOE seeks information regarding the existence ofrelevant proprietary designs forthe HID lamps under considerationin this rulemaking. DOE also seeks comment on whether theseproprietary designs are the only pathway to increase lamp efficacy.Item 30:DOE welcomes comments on other engineering issuesthat could affect the engineering analysis.45 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Price Determination• DOE plans to estimate end-user price directly, rather than developmanufacturer selling prices (MSP) from a bill of materials andmanufacturer markup analysis.• DOE is considering collecting manufacturer suggested price lists (“bluebooks”) and applying a discount based on the distribution channelthrough which the lamp is purchased.• DOE will gather price information from State procurement contracts,large electrical supply distributors, home-improvement/hardware stores,and other sources of publicly availableend-user prices such as Internetretailers, to estimate the appropriate discounts.Item 27:DOE seeks comment on its end-user price approach forcalculating the cost-efficacy relationship for HID lamps. In particular,DOE seeks comment on typical distribution channels for HID lamps,as well as the allocation of market share between these channels.46 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEngineering; Product Price DeterminationLCC and Payback Period AnalysisShipments Analysis; NIA AnalysisNOPR AnalysesPublic Meeting Slides Topics3567Overview; Scope of Coverage1Market and Technology; Screening24Energy Use; Markup Analysis47 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the Interim AnalysisFrameworkDocumentInterimAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentMarkup Analysis48 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– Develop annual energy use data for HID lamp and ballast systems.• Method– Obtain data to develop a distribution of operating hours for HID lampsby sector and census division. Data sources include:• 2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization• EIA’s 2003 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey(CBECS)• EIA’s 2006 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS).– Use system input power from engineering analysis.– Multiply system input power by the number of operating hours per year.Energy Use Analysis49 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 31:DOE welcomes comments on ballast input power and ballastefficiency for lamp and ballast systems stock installed prior to theeffective date of standard.Item 32:DOE welcomes comments on its proposed methodology todetermine annual operating hours for covered HID lamps in thecommercial and industrial sectors, and how operating hours may varyby lamp type and application.50 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the Interim AnalysisFrameworkDocumentInterimAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentMarkup Analysis51 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– Determine MSP from HID lamp prices using manufacturer-to-customermarkups to use in MIA.– Characterize HID lamp distribution channels.• Method– Identify distribution channels.– Estimate the markups for each step from manufacturer to end-user.Derive MSP from end-user prices, developed at the price determinationstage.Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination52 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govMarkups for Equipment PriceDeterminationHID Lamp Distribution Channels:Item 33:DOE welcomes suggestions and comments concerning itsproposed approach for existing customer prices for HID lamps, ballasts,and fixtures.Item 34:DOE welcomes comments on typical manufacturer,wholesaler, and contractor markups associated with HID lamps,ballasts, and fixtures.Lamp manuf.WholesalerContractorEnd userLamp manuf.WholesalerEnd userBallast manuf.WholesalerContractorEnd userFixture manuf.WholesalerContractorEnd user12Replacement HID Ballast Distribution Channels:Fixture Distribution Channels:53 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEngineering; Product Price DeterminationEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisShipments Analysis; NIA AnalysisNOPR AnalysesPublic Meeting Slides Topics3467Overview; Scope of Coverage1Market and Technology; Screening25LCC and Payback Period Analysis54 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the Interim AnalysisFrameworkDocumentInterimAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentMarkup Analysis55 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– Assess the LCC effects and PBP for customers of HID lamps under theconsidered efficacy levels.• Methodology– LCC equals customer price plus the sum of annual operating costs overthe analysis period (baseline lamp lifetime divided by average operatinghours) discounted to a particular base year.– Analysis will model the uncertainty and variability of inputs using MonteCarlo approach and probability distributions.– Analysis will be implemented in MS Excel® spreadsheet combined withCrystal Ball.®Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysisFirst Cost(Customer Price +Installation Cost)OperatingExpensesCombine Changesin CostsLCC ResultsConvert to Present Value56 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Electricity prices are used to convert energy use to energy costs.• DOE will use projections of national average energy prices forcommercial and industrial customers – from the most recent EIAAnnual Energy Outlook (AEO) – to project future energy prices forthe LCC analysisLife-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis – Energy PricesItem 35:DOE welcomes input on the proposed methodology forestimating electricity prices in this analysis.57 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govLife-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis – Discount Rates• DOE uses the discount rate to determine the present value of lifetimeoperating expenses.• DOE will derive a distribution of discount rates for the commercial andindustrial sectors.– These distributions will be developed by estimating the weighted averagecost of capital (WACC) for commercial and industrial customers of HIDlamps.– WACC includes:• Financial cost of any debt incurred to purchase equipment.• Opportunity cost of any equity to purchase equipment.Item 36:DOE welcomes input on the planned approaches for estimatingdiscount rates for customers of the HID lamps covered under thisrulemaking.58 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• DOE will evaluate how installation costs change with increasedefficacy. DOE will consider:– Installation cost (labor rate x hours for labor) of a lamp– Installation cost for replacing a ballast– Installation cost for a fixture• DOE will review and consider:– RSMeans– Industry literature for other installation cost• Repair and Maintenance costs: DOE assumes HID lamps require nomaintenance during operational lifetime and are replaced uponfailure or early retirement.Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis – Operating Costs59 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 37:DOE welcomes suggestions on how to estimate installationcosts for HID lamps. DOE specifically seeks comment on theavailability and value of sources other than RSMeans Electrical CostData to consider in estimating installation costs.Item 39:DOE welcomes comments on whether maintenance or repaircosts for HID lamps, ballasts or fixtures should be considered in thisanalysis.60 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govLife-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis – HID Lamp Lifetimes• DOE will use information from:– Manufacturer literature;– Various literature sources such as technical reports and conferenceproceedings; and– Inputs from manufacturers and other interested parties.• In the 2009 GSFL/IRL, DOE adjusted rated lamp lifetimes to account forthe effects of group relamping – reducing life to 91%–94% of ratedlifetime.• DOE is investigating group versus spot relamping.• Group relamping is less per lamp because labor is pooled.61 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 40:DOE welcomes comments on appropriate lifetimes for theHID lamps covered in this rulemaking, and how lamp life should beadjusted to reflect group relamping practices by lamp type and sector.Item 38:DOE welcomes comments on whether relamping practices(i.e., group or spot relamping) would change if HID lamp life is affectedby new energy conservation standards.62 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEngineering; Product Price DeterminationEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisLCC and Payback Period AnalysisNOPR AnalysesPublic Meeting Slides Topics3457Overview; Scope of Coverage1Market and Technology; Screening26Shipments Analysis; NIA Analysis63 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the Interim AnalysisFrameworkDocumentInterimAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentMarkup Analysis64 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– To project HID lamp shipments in the base-case and standards cases tocalculate the effects of standards on energy savings and present valueof savings.• Method– The shipments model will rely on a range of data sources including, butnot limited to:• Manufacturers and industry organizations,• National market reports,• National energy and lamp use surveys, and• Historical HID lamp shipments from NEMA.Shipments Analysis65 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 15:DOE welcomes input on disaggregated market share andshipment data based on input wattage for each HID lamp technology.Item 41:DOE welcomes recommendations on sources of data forshipments of HID lamps by proposed equipment class. In addition,DOE welcomes comments on future long-term trends in HID lampefficacy (e.g., market share of probe-start quartz MH versus pulsestart quartz and/or pulse-start ceramic MH) for the baseline shipmentsprojections.66 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govShipments AnalysisShipments Model - Methodology• Accounting methodology‒New Installations: Applies to HID lamps in new fixtures that are installedeach year from growth in a particular sector. DOE proposes to determinethis by using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) floor spacegrowth projections for the commercial sector as well as historical growthrates for put-in-place construction from Census.‒Replacements: HID lamps that have failed or retired from service. DOEbases this calculation on lamp shipments and retirement rates.‒Retrofits (early replacements): Applies to lamps and fixtures installed toreplacing existing equipment during renovation or remodeling. Thisreplacement generally occurs before a lamp has failed.Item 42:DOE welcomes comments on the accounting methodologydescribed for each type of HID lamp covered in this rulemaking.67 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Provides the basis to compare projections for higher efficiency levels(standards case).• Depicts the situation where new or amended standards are notadopted.• Depicts the current and projected mix of HID lamp efficacies sold inthe absence of new regulation.– DOE will develop projected market shares of equipment by efficacyunder the base case.• Data requirements:– Historical shipments– Breakdown of shipments by equipment class– Lifetime distributionsShipments AnalysisBase-Case Shipments Projections68 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govShipments AnalysisStandards Effects on HID lamps• DOE develops standards-case projections from the same data it willuse to develop the base-case projections.• Standards-case projections may alsouse purchase price increases andoperating cost savings to estimate shipments effects.• DOE will also consider effects from market-pull programs.Item 43:DOE welcomes comments on how proposed energyconservation standards might affect shipments of HID lamps. DOE alsorequests information on the effectof existing market-pull programs(e.g., customer rebates) on HID lamps.69 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the Interim AnalysisFrameworkDocumentInterimAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentMarkup Analysis70 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– To assess the aggregate effects at the national level of potential energyconservation standards for each of the equipment classes, in terms ofnet present value (NPV) of total customer economic effects and nationalenergy savings (NES).• Method– DOE calculates annual equipment expenditures by multiplying the priceper unit by projected shipments.– The difference between base- and standards-case scenarios gives thenational energy bill savings and increased expenditure in dollars.– The difference each year between energy bill savings and increasedequipment expenditures is the net savings (if positive) and net costs (ifnegative).National Impact Analysis71 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNational Impact AnalysisNES Flow DiagramBase CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2046Base CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2019Base CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2018Base-CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2017ShipmentsAnalysisStandards-CaseProjectionsBase-CaseProjectionsBase CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2046Base CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2019Base CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2018Standards-CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2017Base-CaseCumulativeEnergy UseStandards-CaseCumulativeEnergy UseSite-to-SourceEnergyConversionNational EnergySavings72 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNational Impact AnalysisNational Customer NPV DiagramShipmentsAnalysisStandards-CaseProjectionsEnergy Cost(2017 – 2046)Base-CaseProjectionsCumulativeOperating CostSavingsCumulativeTotal EquipmentCost IncreaseDiscountRateNet PresentValueRepair & Maint.Cost(2017 – 2046)Total InstallCost(2017 – 2046)Energy Cost(2017 – 2046)Repair & Maint.Cost(2017 – 2046)Total InstallCost(2017 – 2046)73 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 44:DOE welcomes comments on the proposed data andprojection sources it anticipates using to develop inputs for the nationalimpact analysis.Item 45:DOE welcomes comments as to whether more efficaciousHID lamp designs would be operatedmore as a result of theirincreased efficacy (i.e., whether a positive rebound effect would beexpected for this equipment) and if sohow much longer would they beoperated.74 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNational Impact AnalysisCalculation of NES• DOE intends to calculate national energy consumption for eachyear beginning with the expected compliance date of thestandards and over a 30-year period.• DOE will use the DOE NES spreadsheet for standard rulemakings.Item 46:DOE welcomes comment from interested parties on the NESspreadsheet models it plans to use for estimating national effects ofnew energy conservation standards for HID lamps.75 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEngineering; Product Price DeterminationEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisLCC and Payback Period AnalysisShipments Analysis; NIA AnalysisPublic Meeting Slides Topics3456Overview; Scope of Coverage1Market and Technology; Screening27NOPR Analyses76 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the NOPRNOPRManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisReviseInterimAnalysisEmissionsAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisLife-CycleCost &PaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisInterimAnalysisFrameworkDocumentFinalRule77 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– Analyze the economic effects of standards on customers, includingsubgroups who may be affected disproportionately compared with thegeneral user population.• Possible examples for HID lamps: utilities, municipalities,transportation facilities.• Method– Extend the LCC analysis to examine the effects for defined subgroups.– DOE will use inputs specific to each of the considered customersubgroups.Life-Cycle Cost Subgroup AnalysisItem 47:DOE welcomes comments from interested parties on which, ifany, customer subgroups should be considered when developingstandards for HID lamps.78 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the NOPRNOPRManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisReviseInterimAnalysisEmissionsAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisLife-CycleCost &PaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisInterimAnalysisFrameworkDocumentFinalRule79 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– Assess the impacts of standards on manufacturers.– Identify and estimate impacts on manufacturer subgroups that may bemore severely impacted than the industry as a whole.– Examine the impact of cumulative regulatory burden on the industry.• Method– Analyze industry cash flow and NPV through use of the GovernmentRegulatory Impact Model (GRIM).– Interview manufacturers to refine inputs to the GRIM, develop subgroupanalyses, and address qualitative issues.Manufacturer Impact Analysis80 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govMIA MethodologyThe MIA consists of three main phases:IndustryprofileDevelopstrawmanGRIMDevelopinterviewguideInterviews&industrywide /subgroupanalysesAssess directemployment,competition,cumulativeburdenPhase 2Phase 3Initial MIAInterviewsPhase 1InterimAnalysisNOPRItem 48:DOE seeks comments on the subgroups of HID lampmanufacturers that it should consider in a manufacturer subgroupanalysis.Item 49:DOE welcomes comments on other regulations or pendingregulations it should consider in its examination of cumulativeregulatory burden.81 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the NOPRNOPRManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisReviseInterimAnalysisEmissionsAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisLife-CycleCost &PaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisInterimAnalysisFrameworkDocumentFinalRule82 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– Assess the overall effects on domestic energy supplies that would resultfrom the imposition of standards.• Method– DOE proposes to use National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)-Building Technologies (BT) developed and used by DOE/EIA for the AEOreport, as the basis of the utility impact analysis.– DOE will model the energy savings impacts from energy conservationstandards using NEMS-BT to generate projections that may deviate fromthe AEO reference case.– Outputs of the utility impact analysisinclude projections of electricitygeneration, and avoided capacity resulting from a comparison of baseand standards cases.Utility Impact AnalysisItem 50:DOE seeks input on its plans to use NEMS-BT to conduct theutility impact analysis on the equipment covered under this rulemaking.83 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the NOPRNOPRManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisReviseInterimAnalysisEmissionsAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisLife-CycleCost &PaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisInterimAnalysisFrameworkDocumentFinalRule84 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– Assess the overall effect on national employment from the imposition ofenergy conservation standards at differing levels.– Include both direct and indirect employment impacts.– Direct employment impacts are estimated in the manufacturer impactanalysis.– Indirect employment impacts result from shifting customer expendituresamong goods and services (“substitution effect”) and changes in incomeand overall expenditure levels (“income effect”).• Method– DOE intends to use the Impact of Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET)model for the evaluation of indirect employment impacts.Employment Impact AnalysisItem 51:DOE requests feedback on its approach to assessingemployment impacts on the equipment covered under this rulemaking.85 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the NOPRNOPRManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisReviseInterimAnalysisEmissionsAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisLife-CycleCost &PaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisInterimAnalysisFrameworkDocumentFinalRule86 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– To report environmental effects resulting from energy conservationstandards, including changes in power plant emissions.• Method– DOE intends to use the emissions effects projected from the NEMS-BTmodeling analysis used for the Utility Impacts Analysis.• Carbon dioxide (CO2) will be the primary emissions reported.• Existing legislation cap Sulfur Dioxide (SO2), so physical emissionreductions will be zero or nearly zero from any single energyconservation standard.• Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions will be reported for the 22 stateswhere emissions are not capped.• Mercury (Hg) emissions will also be reported.Emissions AnalysisItem 52:DOE seeks input on its plan to use NEMS-BT to conduct theemissions analysis for the equipment covered by this rulemaking.87 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govMonetization of Emission Reductions• DOE intends to use the most current social cost of carbon (SCC)values developed by interagency reviews.– SCC is intended to be a monetary measure of the incremental damageresulting from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including but notlimited to agricultural productivity loss, human health effects, propertydamage from rising sea level, and changes in the ecosystem.• At present, the most recent interagency estimates of the potentialglobal benefits resulting from reduced CO2emissions in 2010 are$4.9, $22.3, $36.5, and $67.6 permetric ton in 2010 dollars.– For emission reductions that occur in later years, these values grow inreal terms over time.• DOE will also estimate the potential monetary benefit of reducedNOxemissions resulting from the considered standard levels.88 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSteps in the NOPRNOPRManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisReviseInterimAnalysisEmissionsAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisLife-CycleCost &PaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisInterimAnalysisFrameworkDocumentFinalRule89 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Purpose– To investigate the national effects of non-regulatory alternativescompared with mandatory energy conservation standards.– The non-regulatory alternatives that may be considered include:• Customer rebates;• Customer tax credits;• Manufacturer tax credits;• Voluntary efficiency targets;• Early replacement; and• Bulk government procurement.• Method– Modify NES spreadsheet model to consider non-regulatory scenarios.– Estimate effects of non-regulatory scenarios based on experience withthe considered policies.– Output will include NES and NPV of the non-regulatory alternatives.Regulatory Impact Analysis90 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govHow to Submit Written Comments•In all correspondence, please referto the HID lamps rulemaking by:– High-Intensity Discharge Lamps Energy Conservation Standard Rulemaking,– Docket Number EERE-2010-BT-STD-0043, and– Regulatory Identification Number (RIN) 1904-AC36•Email:HIDLamps-2010-STD-0043@ee.doe.gov•Comment period closes:April 12, 2012, 11:59 PM EDTPostal:Courier:Ms. Brenda EdwardsU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2J1000 Independence Avenue, SWWashington, DC 20585-0121Ms. Brenda EdwardsU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies Program, Suite 600950 L’Enfant Plaza, SWWashington, DC 20024Tel: 202 586-294591 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRelevant URLs•DOE Appliance Standards–http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/•HID Lamps Energy Conservation Standard and Test Procedure–http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/high_intensity_discharge_lamps.html•Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Energy Conservation Standard–http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/metal_halide_lamp_fixtures.html92 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govQuestions?