United States

Department of

Agriculture

Forest Service

Pacific Northwest

Research Station

General Technical

Report

PNW-GTR-624

February 2005

The Rise and Fall of the

Pacific Northwest Log

Export Market

Jean M. Daniels
The Forest Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture is dedicated to the

principle of multiple use management of the Nation’s forest resources for sustained yields of wood, water, forage, wildlife, and recreation. Through forestry

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Author

Jean M. Daniels is a research forester, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 620 SW

Main, Suite 400, Portland, OR 97205. E-mail jdaniels@fs.fed.us.
Abstract

Daniels, Jean M. 2005. The rise and fall of the Pacific Northwest log export

market. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-624. Portland, OR: U.S. Department

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 80 p.

For decades, softwood log exports were an important component of international

wood products trade from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the United

States. Log exports to the Pacific Rim began in earnest after the Columbus Day

Storm of 1962 generated billions of board feet of salvaged timber. This market

was maintained and expanded owing to Japan’s demand for high-quality logs for

its construction industry. Contentious debate surrounding disproportionate gains

and losses to forest product market participants in the PNW (timber owners, mill

owners, communities, and consumers) led to government intervention and restriction of volumes available for export. The debate ended and the market declined

as a result of three factors: reductions in timber harvesting from PNW forests,

changes in Asia’s demand, and globalization of wood markets. These changes

with implications for trade and timber market participants are discussed.

Keywords: Log exports, forest products trade, softwood log trade, Japan, globalization, Pacific Northwest trade, spotted owl.
Contents

1 Introduction

1 Triangular Trade Flows: the Pacific Northwest, Pacific Rim, and Canada

2 International Trade Theory

4 Pacific Northwest Log Trade With the Pacific Rim

12 Pacific Northwest Lumber Trade

14 Canada’s Lumber Trade With the Pacific Rim

16 Canada’s Lumber Trade With the United States

19 Trade Policy

19 United States Log Export Debate

23 Macroeconomic Factors Influence the Debate

28 Log Export Legislation

29 United States Lumber Import Restrictions

32 Prices in Domestic and Export Markets

33 Stumpage Prices

34 Log Prices

36 Lumber Prices

39 Key Changes Affecting the Log Export Market

40 Changes in Pacific Northwest Harvest Levels

50 Changes in Japan’s Demand

58 Globalization of Wood Markets

69 Pacific Northwest Trade Outlook and Implications for Market

Participants

70 Trade Outlook

72 PNW Industry Participants

73 Metric Equivalents

74 Literature Cited
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

1

Introduction

The softwood log export trade began in earnest when 11.2 billion board feet of

timber was blown down during the Columbus Day Storm in 1962. It evolved to

become one of the unique forest product trade flows throughout the 20th century,

primarily owing to Japan’s demand for high-quality raw materials for their construction industry. Debates surrounding log exports polarized the timber industry

for decades and focused on who wins and who loses when excess supply of logs

from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is diverted from domestic markets to satiate

demand in international markets. These debates led to drafting of forest management and trade policies designed to redistribute benefits and losses among key

stakeholders in the forest sector, including timber owners, mill owners, communities, and consumers.

Today, however, the log export market, along with the contentious log export

debate, is virtually nonexistent. The precipitous decline of softwood log exports

caused the PNW to lose its position as dominant supplier of building materials to

the Pacific Rim. Although trade flows in domestic and international markets have

adjusted and stabilized, factors that triggered these changes remain largely unexplored.

The objective of this study is to recount the rise and fall of the PNW softwood

log export market. We begin with the rise of the triangular trade flow of logs and

lumber among the United States, Japan, and Canada beginning in the early 1960s.

A brief discussion of international trade theory, including diagrams of supply and

demand for goods in international markets, provides the economic motivation of

forces driving these trade flows. Next, a history of trade policies drafted in response to the log export trade debate is presented. Export log and lumber prices are

also discussed as the log export price premium played an important role in maintaining the log export market for three decades. For the purposes of this publication, all prices reported in dollars are assumed to be U.S. dollars unless otherwise

spe-cified. Next, the fall of the log export market is chronicled with a discussion of

three key domestic and international determinants. Finally, implications for trade,

timber owners, mill owners, consumers, and communities are explored.

Triangular Trade Flows: the Pacific Northwest, Pacific Rim, and

Canada

This section highlights the development of trade flows of softwood logs and softwood lumber between the PNW, the Pacific Rim, and Canada. Log trade from the

Pacific Northwest to the Pacific Rim and lumber trade from Canada to the Pacific

Rim and United States represent a global triangle of interdependent producers and
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

2

consumers of wood products. For the purposes of this study, the Pacific Rim

encompasses Japan, China, and South Korea.

As figure 1 shows, the United States consumes the most industrial roundwood,

followed by Canada, China, Japan, and South Korea (FAO 1980, 1990, 2000a).

Industrial roundwood consumption in the United States, Canada, and China has

increased over the three decades, while consumption has decreased in South Korea

and Japan, mirroring macroeconomic performance in these two countries.

A brief introduction of international trade theory, including the key concept of

comparative advantage, serves as prologue for the discussion.

International Trade Theory

Costs of production differ across countries. A nation is said to have a comparative

advantage if it can produce a good at a lower cost relative to other nations. International trade theory suggests that a country gains from trade when it exports goods

in which it has a comparative advantage. Each country produces more of the

products in which it has a comparative advantage and produces less of other

products. This raises world output and allows people to consume more of every

product, a result known as the Law of Comparative Advantage (Stockman 1996).

Triangular trade flows between Canada, the PNW, and the Pacific Rim resulted

from each country’s comparative advantage in the production of lumber, logs, and

labor-intensive processing, respectively.

Without international trade, each country is limited to consuming only the

goods it can produce. International trade allows each country to consume more of

every good; how much more is determined by world equilibrium prices. Figure 2

depicts a hypothetical supply and demand schedule for softwood logs traded in

international markets, the corresponding world equilibrium price, and the equilibrium exports and imports of each country. Figure 2a shows supply and demand

curves for softwood logs in the United States. Without international trade, the U.S.

equilibrium price is $100 and the United States produces and consumes 10,000

units of logs. In figure 2b, the equilibrium price is $200 in other countries, and

other countries produce 20,000 units when they do not trade. With international

trade, the price differs across countries; this difference is what provides an incentive for trade.

With international trade, figure 2c depicts a world equilibrium price of $150.

Raising the price of U.S. goods from $100 to $150 in world markets generates

excess supply available to trade; the corresponding reduction of price from $200 to

$150 in other countries generates excess demand. At a price of $150, 8,000 units

are demanded in domestic markets while firms produce and sell 14,000 units,
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

3

leaving the United States with 6,000 units of excess supply for export. At $150,

other countries demand 23,000 units but only 17,000 units are produced, leaving a

shortfall of 6,000 units that is met with imports. The U.S. exports equal imports to

other countries; excess supply equals excess demand in equilibrium.

Some people gain and some lose with international trade. In general, consumers in the importing country gain because trade allows them to buy the good at a

lower price. Producers in the importing region lose; they sell the good at a lower

price and they sell less. Losers include owners of firms that face additional foreign

competition and workers at those firms. On the other hand, producers in the

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Canada China Japan South Korea United States

Roundwood consumption (billion cubic meters)

1980 1990 2000

Figure 1—Industrial roundwood consumption of export market participants.

Figure 2—Market equilibrium with international trade.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

4

exporting region gain; trade allows them to charge a higher price and sell more

goods. Consumers in the exporting region lose because they pay a higher price for

the good. As long as gains to winners are greater than losses to losers, trade is said

to be efficient.

Comparative advantage is a dynamic concept; it can and does change over

time. Better opportunities for alternative trades weaken the bargaining positions of

potential trading partners by strengthening competition. In this way, alternative

opportunities affect the prices at which nations trade and the way they share the

gains from trade. Factors such as quantity and quality of factors of production

available, investment in research and development, movements in exchange rates,

long-term rates of inflation, and import controls such as tariffs and quotas are

important in determining the relative costs of production, and ultimately, affect

comparative advantage. Some businesses find they have enjoyed a comparative

advantage in one product for several years only to face increasing competition

when rival producers from other countries enter their markets.

Pacific Northwest Log Trade With the Pacific Rim

When the Columbus Day Storm occurred in 1962, enormous volumes of downed

timber flooded domestic wood markets. The export market, which was relatively

small and specialized at the time, was viewed as an outlet for surplus salvaged

material. After the salvaged timber was exhausted, log trade expanded owing to

excess demand for wood raw materials triggered by economic growth in Pacific

Rim nations, especially Japan. This expansion, resulting from excess supply of

salvaged logs in the PNW and excess demand for softwood logs in Japan, was the

beginning of one of the most influential trade flows of wood in the world (Lane

1998).

Figure 3 shows the relative proportion of logs exported from the PNW arriving

at each Pacific Rim destination, total log exports to the Pacific Rim, and total log

exports to the world from 1961 to 2001. Several key points are apparent. The

majority of total softwood logs exported from the PNW was destined for Pacific

Rim locations. Log trade with Japan drove the expansion of log exports after 1962,

drawing purchasers from South Korea in 1971 and China in 1980. After China’s

entry, the proportion of Pacific Rim exports going to Japan decreased only to

increase again after Chinese imports declined rapidly after peaking in 1988. After

1990, the log market declined and world trend followed Japan’s trend. Exports to

all Pacific Rim locations and to the world decreased rapidly to the low levels

observed today. Declining log exports from the PNW resulted from both supply
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

5

and demand side shocks, which are discussed later. A detailed description of the

log trade to these three countries follows, with emphasis on Japan as the dominant

international market for PNW logs.

Japan—

Japan has been by far the dominant purchaser of PNW softwood logs. The expansion of the log trade to Japan, in terms of volume and prices, is depicted in figure

4. Comparison with figure 3 demonstrates that most of the variation in export

volumes to the world experienced until about 1982 occurred in exports to Japan,

reinforcing that Japan dominated the market. Export prices rose over time as well,

with peaks experienced in 1973 and 1980. Export volume to Japan remained

relatively flat until the late 1980s; prices remained relatively constant as well with

slight declines from 1980 until 1987. In 1987, prices began rising dramatically to

peak at just over $1,000 per thousand board feet in 1993. These high prices

persisted for a few years and then rapidly declined as markets adjusted after 1995.

Exports to Japan declined about 70 percent from their 1989 peak of 2.4 billion

board feet to 706,000 board feet in 2000.

Although it was the dominant purchaser of PNW logs, Japan has extensive

forest resources, owing to its planting efforts following World War II. Over 12

million hectares of forest plantations were reforested to replenish timber stocks.

Japan’s forests now contain approximately 3.48 billion cubic meters of timber

growing stock, two-thirds of which is softwood species (Eastin et al. 2002).

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1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

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Log exports (billion board feet)

South Korea China Japan Other

Figure 3—Pacific Northwest log exports by destination.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

6

Plantations are approaching maturity and, if harvested, the estimated potential

supply could impact world timber markets (Blandon 1999).

Although Japan has abundant domestic forest resources, Japanese firms

preferred to import unprocessed logs from PNW suppliers for several reasons.

First, Japan’s domestic forest sector suffered from weakened profitability. Declining stumpage prices combined with price competition from imported timber and

rising costs associated with logging wages, road construction, harvesting, and

transportation depressed Japan’s forest sector. In addition, private forest land

ownership is characterized by large numbers of landowners, the majority of whom

own between 1 and 10 hectares each. Small parcel size restricts the ability of

landowners to reap positive financial returns from harvesting their forests (Moffett

and Waggener 1992). Lackluster incentives for forest management translate to

declining output from Japan’s domestic forests.

Trends in Japan’s sawmilling capacity also contributed to rising demand for log

imports. After World War II, Japan made large investments in its domestic processing industries. Large-capacity inland mills were relocated to the coast to reduce

hauling costs, because imported logs were brought in by ship. These imported logs

were manufactured into domestic lumber and consumed in Japan’s domestic

market. Relocation of processing facilities ensured that imports replaced Japan’s

own forests as the primary source of wood for domestic processing, and conversely, that domestic processors became dependent upon imported logs to supply

mill capacity.

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Log export volume (billion board feet)

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Log export price ($/thousand board feet)

Figure 4—Volume and nominal prices of Pacific Northwest softwood log exports to

Japan.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

7

Sawmills in Japan had greater raw material efficiency than those in the United

States. That, along with meticulous sawing practices, enabled Japan’s sawmills

to get greater product recovery from logs than PNW sawmills (70 vs. 50 percent).

In addition, because Japan had abundant and low-cost labor, real wages in Japan

were far below those in the United States in the 1960s; labor availability and wages

were not limiting factors in production (Flora et al. 1993). Japan’s advantage in

labor-intensive wood processing meant they were better served by importing raw

materials than finished products, resulting in log export stumpage price premiums

enjoyed by PNW forest landowners for decades (Darr 1975a, Darr et al.1980, Flora

et al. 1993, Hamilton 1971, Wiseman and Sedjo 1981).

Japan’s demand for PNW softwood logs was also driven by rapid economic

expansion in Japan after World War II. Japan’s economic growth during the 1960s

was estimated to average 10 percent per year. Although sensitive to macroeconomic trends, Japan’s stellar economic growth continued until the early 1990s.

Rapid economic expansion led to a prolonged period of new housing demand by

Japanese consumers (fig. 5). Japan is unique among Asian nations in its strong

preference for wooden housing.

Consumer preference for wooden homes created and sustained demand for

wood that exceeded supplies available from domestic sources or processed imports

from other countries. Japan’s housing is characterized by two major segments,

Figure 5—Japanese housing starts.

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1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

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Japanese housing starts (million units)

 Wood Total
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

8

wood frame and nonwood frame housing. The wood frame sector has three subsectors: traditional post and beam construction, Japanese light frame construction,

and prefabricated structures. Post and beam housing dominates the wood frame

sector with over 80 percent share; PNW logs possess qualities well suited to

traditional post and beam construction (UN ECE 2000).

Traditional post and beam construction involved cutting and notching large

wood beams and posts by skilled carpenters at the construction site. Because labor

was inexpensive and freely available, the Japanese used a wide variety of specifications and customization of lumber in their construction techniques. Raw logs were

preferred to U.S. lumber; standardized U.S. lumber specifications and grades did

not comply with Japanese preference for custom cutting and measurements.

Japan’s post and beam construction emphasized aesthetic qualities with greater

use of exposed wooden structural elements and trim than construction methods

used in the United States. Emphasis on finished wood appearance applications

meant the Japanese sought only high-quality softwood logs. The U.S. domestic log

market did not demand high-quality stumpage materials, which helps explain why

high-quality logs were diverted into the export market. Darr (1975a) found that log

export volume was concentrated in the No. 2 and better saw log grades, whereas

domestic sales were concentrated in the No. 2 and lower quality saw log grades. In

1973, No. 2 and better saw log grades comprised 82.3 percent of log export sales,

whereas the same grades made up only 50.5 percent of domestic sales.

Japan’s demand for high-quality PNW softwood logs was also characterized by

a strong preference for light-colored, defect-free logs with high ring count. Ring

count was especially important in the definition of higher grades for Japan. Flora et

al. (1993) reported that 8 to 12 rings per inch, the standard usually associated with

old-growth timber, were common thresholds.

Associated with log quality was a strong species preference by Japanese

importers for PNW logs. Since 1980, most of Japan’s imports have consisted of

high-quality Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) (fig. 6). Douglasfir logs are sawn for a variety of high-valued products in Japan. Primary among

these is production of major support beams used in traditional post and beam

housing, a use reflecting its superior structural characteristics. The dark color and

high pitch content of Douglas-fir limited its use in exposed posts, which are

another major element in traditional housing in Japan (Robertson and Waggener

1995).

Although Douglas-fir was favored for structural applications, western hemlock

(Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) was used for vertical posts and other exposed

applications inside traditional housing. Clear wood produced from old-growth
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

9

hemlock was especially popular. In addition, its light color resembled that of the

favored Japanese domestic species Sugi (Cryptomeria japonica (D.) Don) for

exposed applications. The popularity of western hemlock, stemming from its

aesthetic qualities, made it the second leading import species by volume. Other

species imported from the PNW included Sitka (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) and

other spruces, true fir (Abies spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and cedar (Thuja spp.). Prices

were especially high for old-growth Select grades in spruce, hemlock, and true firs

(Flora et al. 1991).

Asian importers preferred a reliable and stable supply to reduce price volatility

and paid higher prices for guaranteed long-term stable supply. This desire for a

stable supply is reflected in the larger share of high-grade logs sold under established trading relationships rather than in spot markets. A premium for ensured

supplies was most prevalent for higher grade logs because of their scarcity and the

consequent difficulty of finding substitute sources (Flora et al. 1993).

Japan’s preference for high-quality logs, along with its willingness to pay top

prices to ensure a continuous supply, meant it had no trouble finding willing

suppliers. The seemingly inexhaustible supply of logs in the PNW met Japan’s

demand for high-quality construction materials for over three decades.

Although Japan traditionally has been the largest purchaser of logs exported

from the PNW, South Korea and the People’s Republic of China also participated

in the log export trade.

1978 data for hemlock unavailable

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1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Log export (billion board feet)

Douglas-fir Hemlock

*

* 1978 data for hemlock unavailable

Figure 6—Volume of Pacific Northwest Douglas-fir and hemlock exports to all countries.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

10

South Korea—

South Korea, like Japan, has an existing domestic forest. Like Japan’s, most of

South Korea’s merchantable timber was cut during World War II, and an aggressive

tree planting campaign was undertaken after the war. Currently, the domestic forest

is primarily even aged and approaching maturity. Domestic production of wood has

increased, but consumption has increased at a much faster rate. Korea is predicted

to remain a net importer of forest products, at least until 2020 (Schreuder et al.

1987).

South Korea historically played an important role in global forest products

trade. It was one of the dominant producers of hardwood plywood throughout the

1970s. Indonesia was South Korea’s main supplier of hardwood logs for domestic

plywood production until Indonesia implemented a total ban on log exports in 1981

and installed competing plywood manufacturing capacity. Although South Korea’s

declining plywood industry still uses tropical hardwood logs, the expanding

sawmilling industry uses softwood logs for construction and carpentry applications. Thus, South Korea’s demand for softwood logs has grown.

Trade in softwood logs between the PNW and South Korea began in earnest in

the late 1970s. Traded volumes increased steadily until a recession in South Korea

from 1978 to 1982. After the recession, South Korea’s gross domestic product

(GDP) grew dramatically, mostly from increased domestic demand. Excess demand

led to increased PNW log exports to South Korea every year after 1982, peaking at

685 million board feet in 1990 (fig. 7).

After 1990, log trade with South Korea declined steadily to the low levels

observed today. This decline is attributed to two factors: (1) escalated price of

PNW logs following supply-side shocks and (2) market share gained through price

competition by low-cost radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) suppliers from Chile

and New Zealand. South Korea has greater sensitivity to price than Japan; after

prices for PNW logs rose to a peak of $842 per thousand board feet in 1993, lower

cost suppliers gained market advantage. Currently, South Korea imports most of its

industrial roundwood from New Zealand and Chile.

China—

Reliable data on China’s domestic timber supply is difficult to obtain. Although it

is known that China too began a series of afforestation campaigns following World

War II, success of these efforts is difficult to quantify owing to lack of accurate,

systematically compiled time-series data (Lovett and Dean-Lovett 1986). More

recently (over the past 15 years) China has planted over 17.5 million hectares in

forest, resulting in a large young even-aged plantation resource (FAO 2000b).
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

11

Figure 8 shows that trade in PNW logs to China began in 1980 with total

shipments of 88 million board feet. This figure increased more than seven times to

728 million board feet by 1983. Chinese log imports peaked at 1,052 million board

feet in 1988 and then declined rapidly when prices escalated after 1989. China

faced the same rising PNW log prices experienced by Korea with a similar result:

price sensitivity caused the PNW to lose market share to competing supply regions.

Today, PNW log imports are almost nonexistent in China; China meets the vast

majority of its demand for softwood logs with imports from Russia.

Although China’s forest products industry has historically demonstrated a

preference for low-cost logs, the underlying factor limiting China’s imports was

the availability of foreign exchange. State policy dictates that foreign exchange

reserves must be used judiciously; barter trade is preferred wherever the import

situation allows. Competing supply regions willing to engage in barter trade with

China have captured the market share lost by the PNW, which explains why most

of China’s log imports currently originate in Russia.

Although China is expected to remain a net importer of wood, trends indicate

that product mix is shifting from unprocessed logs to processed softwood products.

China’s economy is growing at unprecedented rates; GDP increases have averaged

9 percent per year over the past decade. Total lumber production from domestic

and imported logs in 1985 was 20 million cubic meters and is projected to increase

to 35 million cubic meters by 2000, primarily for construction end uses. Because of

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Log exports (million board feet)

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Figure 7—Volume and nominal prices of Pacific Northwest softwood log exports to South Korea.

0
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

12

insufficient lumber processing capacity, China’s sawmills will be unable to meet

predicted lumber demands without massive expansion. Many suppliers, including

the United States, see China as a huge emerging market for wood product exports.

The combined expansion of China’s and Korea’s log imports during the 1980s

provided a lift to log exporters when Japan’s imports remained flat (fig. 3). The

effect of losing these two markets to lower cost producers and the subsequent loss

of Japan’s market for logs led to a cumulative negative impact on log exporters in

the region that remains today. Log export levels have returned to those observed in

the early 1960s and are likely to stay there. The reasons are explored later.

Pacific Northwest Lumber Trade

Although attention generally centered on log exports, the PNW has also had a

history of exporting softwood lumber. Japan traditionally has been the dominant

purchaser of PNW lumber. Total lumber exports remained flat, and lumber exports

to Japan were inconsequential until 1973. In that year, PNW lumber exporters saw

a fivefold increase in lumber exports worldwide; most of this increase consisted of

expanded exports to Japan, which increased sixfold. This was the first of a series of

market cycles experienced in lumber exports (fig. 9).

Generally, upturns and downturns in the developing lumber export markets

were triggered by macroeconomic trends in the U.S. economy. During recessionary

periods, lumber processors expanded overseas trade to compensate for slumping

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Figure 8—Volume and nominal prices of Pacific Northwest softwood log exports to China.

0

)
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

13

domestic demand generated from reductions in housing starts. Producers sought

out new markets in anticipation of lackluster domestic demand triggered by

downturns in the U.S. economy. On the other hand, during economic boom times,

lumber exports declined as domestic purchasers competed amongst themselves and

with overseas purchasers for lumber supplies. When the U.S. economy recovered,

exports declined as lumber was redirected into domestic markets to meet demand,

predominantly for housing construction. Prices trend in the same manner, recession

brings lower prices from reduced demand, whereas expansion raises prices as high

demand forces purchasers to compete for available supply.

Lumber export volume and prices followed this predicable model of market

behavior until the late 1980s. After another export expansion triggered in 1986,

total lumber exports peaked at 1,944 million board feet in 1989 while prices increased 20 percent to $430 per thousand board feet. After this peak, export volumes gradually contracted back to levels experienced in the 1970s while export

prices continued to climb to a record $732 per thousand board feet in 1996.

High prices eventually caused a market shift as foreign lumber purchasers

easily found lower cost suppliers. Between 1988 and 1993, softwood lumber

exports to Canada dropped almost 50 percent from 494 million board feet to 267

million board feet. Japan reduced imports to levels maintained in the mid-1970s.

Until this market shift, volume exported to all countries and volume exported to

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1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

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Lumber exports (billion board feet)

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Average price to all countries

($/thousand board feet)

All Countries Japan Price

Figure 9—Pacific Northwest lumber exports.

)
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

14

Japan moved together, demonstrating the prominent role Japan played in this

market. Japan’s demand has sustained both PNW log and lumber exports for

decades.

Canada’s Lumber Trade With the Pacific Rim

Canada’s forest products industry, especially in British Columbia, also expanded

after World War II. Canada’s forest ownership is dominated by government holdings, with a longstanding ban on exports of unprocessed logs except for material

declared surplus to domestic needs. While the PNW was developing its log export

industry, Canada focused on developing its domestic lumber processing industry

and exporting processed wood products. Figure 10 illustrates the profound difference between exported volumes of lumber and raw logs from British Columbia

from 1965 to 2000. Today, Canada accounts for 20 percent of the total global

softwood lumber production. This is second only to the United States, whose

production share is 25 percent.

Canada is the main competitor for the United States in Pacific Rim markets.

The Pacific Rim is Canada’s second largest export destination for softwood lumber

(the first being the United States) with over 7 million cubic meters shipped in 1996.

Canada’s lumber increased market share in Japan after adding capacity in new

areas to access timber resources in provinces east of British Columbia. Another

round of capacity investment in the late 1980s and 1990s led to further expansion

of lumber exports. Interior mills focused on supplying developing markets in the

United States, while British Columbia expanded exports to the Pacific Rim. After

the new mills were built, the Canadians became effective competitors in international lumber markets.1

 Canadian suppliers benefited from cost competitiveness,

favorable exchange rates, and willingness to cut custom lengths for immediate use

by Japanese clients.

Japan is the largest Pacific Rim importer of Canadian softwood lumber

(fig. 11). Rapid economic growth, a growing need for housing, and a dependence

on imports increased Canada’s lumber exports to Japan in the same way it increased PNW log exports. In 1996, Japan’s imports of Canadian softwood lumber

peaked at 2,600 million board feet, representing over 90 percent of total Canadian

1

 Lippke, B.; Perez-Garcia, J. 1998. Factors affecting timber prices. Unpublished report. On

file with: either author at the Center for International Trade in Forest Products, University of

Washington College of Forest Resources, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

15

Figure 10—British Columbia exports to all countries, lumber vs. logs.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

U.S. dollars (billions)

Japan China and South Korea

Figure 11—Value of Canadian lumber exports to the Pacific Rim in nominal United States dollars.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Year

Log and lumber exports (million board feet)

Lumber Logs
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

16

softwood exports to the Pacific Rim region that year. Most of Canada’s lumber

exports to Japan originate from British Columbia. British Columbia consistently

had greater presence in Japan’s lumber markets than PNW exporters, especially

after 1990 (fig. 12).

Canada’s Lumber Trade With the United States

Canadian lumber exports began making substantial inroads in the United States in

the 1970s. When the “baby boom” generation reached household-forming age, the

United States experienced unprecedented demand for new housing. New housing

starts increased by 65 percent between 1970 and 1972 (fig. 13). Frenzied demand

for housing construction forced intense competition for wood supply between

lumber producers, driving up domestic product prices. Production could not keep

pace with consumption and the United States was unable to rely solely on domestic

resources.

Internationally, trade flows were redirected to compensate for the shortfall

between U.S. supply and consumption. Canada, already a low-cost provider of

lumber, began gaining market share in the United States. By the mid-1970s, about

20 percent of U.S. softwood lumber demand was met with Canadian imports.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Year

Lumber exports (billion board feet)

British Columbia Pacific Northwest

Figure 12—A comparison of lumber exports to Japan.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

17

Penetration into U.S. markets triggered investments to expand Canada’s lumber

processing capacity. Expanding lumber production was predicted to lead to greater

Canadian gains from trade, especially after forest managers accessed untapped

timber resources and used more intensive timber management strategies. Projections estimated that Canadian softwood lumber output would double to 22 billion

board feet from 1975 to 2000 (Darr et al. 1980).

By the end of the 1970s, U.S. imports of Canadian lumber had doubled. Figure

14 shows softwood lumber import volume from Canada between 1978 and 2002.

Recessionary pressure on the U.S. economy in 1980 caused Canada’s lumber

exports to the United States to decline only to rebound and make further gains

following economic recovery. By the late 1980s, dramatic increases in the Canadian lumber market share in the United States began to concern U.S. domestic

lumber producers. With the exception of the recession period of 1990 and 1991,

imports have remained high ever since. Growth of the U.S. economy throughout

the 1990s triggered gains for Canadian lumber producers as imports increased by

54 percent between 1991 and 1996.

During the nineties, the regional distribution of Canadian lumber production

began shifting. After World War II, lumber production was dominated by British

Columbia. Although British Columbia remains Canada’s largest producer of softwood lumber, its share of total production peaked in 1990 at 63 percent and has

since declined. By contrast, the interior provinces of Quebec, Ontario, and Alberta

have increased production share since 1991 and now compete with British Columbia in lumber processing (fig. 15). Although strides are being made to access

Annual average, seasonally adjusted

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Million units

Figure 13—United States housing starts, 1970 to 2003.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

18

offshore markets, especially Japan and the United Kingdom, the majority of

Canadian interior production consists of dimension lumber products for the domestic Canadian and U.S. housing markets.

The 1990s saw debates surrounding gains Canadian lumber producers were

making in U.S. markets. Lower cost Canadian producers made rapid gains in

lumber delivery into U.S. markets, rekindling the long-standing softwood lumber

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Lumber imports (million cubic meters)

Figure 14—United States softwood imports from Canada, 1978 to 2002.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Lumber production (billion board feet)

Interior provinces British Columbia

Figure 15—Canada lumber production—interior provinces vs. British Columbia

0
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

19

trade dispute. United States producers complained that Canada could provide

lumber to U.S. markets at lower prices because the Canadian government subsidized the lumber industry. In 1996, after the United States threatened to file a

countervailing duty case against Canada, the two governments established the

Canadian Softwood Lumber Agreement to limit lumber exports from Canada to the

United States.

In 2004, softwood lumber trade between Canada and the United States remains

a major global forest product trade flow. Residential construction, repair, and

remodeling, especially in the United States, persist as the predominant end uses for

Canadian softwood lumber. Canada remains the largest exporter of lumber in the

world, and the United States is the largest importer of Canadian lumber. Although

the United States remains Canada’s strongest competitor, nontraditional suppliers

of softwood lumber such as New Zealand, Chile, and Scandinavia have established

themselves as competitors in international markets. The softwood lumber dispute

with Canada remains unresolved; it has impacted lumber trade flow between

Canada and the United States with some unintended consequences, which are

discussed later.

Trade Policy

Trade policy has influenced the triangular relationship of wood product trade flows

between the United States, Canada, and Japan. In general, the goal of trade policies

is to increase or decrease imports or exports to improve the advantage of domestic

producers over competing producers in other regions. Restrictive trade policies

develop owing to political lobbying from industries that perceive themselves as

adversely affected by trade. When U.S. domestic processors began to feel threatened by log exports, the stage was set for U.S. log export restrictions.

United States Log Export Debate

Current U.S. log export restrictions resulted from expanding trade in logs to Japan.

Massive increases in PNW log exports, accounting for an increasing share of

annual harvests from PNW forests, raised concerns about the disproportionate

impacts of log exports on stakeholders in domestic markets (fig. 16). The debate

that ensued included participants representing a variety of stakeholders. Timber

owners, domestic processors, consumers, and communities each argued either for

or against log export restriction, depending on if that group had been positively or

negatively affected by foreign competition. The traditional position of each of these

four interest groups is not surprising (Haynes 1976).
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

20

Timber owners—

Opposition to log export restrictions is led by public and private stumpage owners,

firms involved in logging, transporting, and processing logs for export, and others

receiving gains from trade. Forest landowners with access to export markets

captured a price premium for softwood logs, increasing their revenues and providing more capital for reinvestment. Higher stumpage prices for export logs provided

landowners with incentive for more intensive forest management and more efficient wood utilization.

Domestic processors—

Proponents of log export restrictions included domestic mill owners who competed

with exporters to purchase stumpage and the U.S. construction industry. These

factions asserted that export markets drove up stumpage prices because importers

paid a price premium for logs of desired quality. Higher stumpage prices meant

higher lumber prices and higher U.S. housing costs. Additionally, foreign buyers

increased competition for stumpage, reducing the total supply of logs available to

domestic processors. Therefore, mill owners favored export restrictions to ensure

viability of the domestic timber processing industry.

Proponents of restrictions assert that higher stumpage prices and reduced

supplies of available timber make PNW mills less competitive in domestic markets

compared to other U.S. and Canadian firms. By protecting domestic processors

from increased raw material costs, more lumber could be produced in the PNW for

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Year

Softwood logs (billion board feet)

Total harvest Total exports

Figure 16—Washington and Oregon harvest exported in log form.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

21

domestic use, resulting in lower domestic lumber prices, lower housing costs,

larger processing industry, and greater employment.

Consumers—

The effects of log exports on consumers also have been debated. Prices of products

available to consumers, such as housing, could be reduced if domestic producers

were not forced to compete for logs with overseas importers. By restricting log

exports, more products would be available in-country at lower prices. In addition,

restricting log exports could increase societal welfare by allowing low-cost housing

through reduced costs of raw material inputs for construction.

Communities—

The availability of natural resources is generally considered the basis for growth

and development of resource-dependent communities in rural locations. Many

communities in the Pacific Northwest relied almost solely on timber harvesting and

manufacturing of wood products for economic well-being, especially in rural areas

where the local mill may be the only employer. Changes in log availability or

market demand have a direct impact on economies with few alternative industries

(Darr 1975a). Residents feared that overseas importers would divert large volumes

away from domestic mills, causing mill closures and regional unemployment.

Restrictions were seen as a way to protect community well-being. On the other

hand, port communities relied heavily on export trade; restrictions may have

harshly affected them (Hamilton 1971).

Discussion of log export trade policies at the community level focused on

implications for employment, value, and community stability. Darr (1975a) estimated direct and indirect value and employment tradeoffs associated with log

exports versus domestic processing. Direct employment per thousand board feet of

logs was higher in the domestic market than the export market. His calculation that

domestic processing in Washington and Oregon in 1973 required 12.58 personhours per thousand board feet for the lumber industry and 19.47 person-hours for

the plywood and veneer industries while the log export industry required only 4.72

person-hours fueled arguments that log exports made little contribution to regional

employment. Figure 17 illustrates employment in the wood products industry in the

Pacific Northwest from 1965 to 2002. Note the greater volatility in employment in

the lumber producing sector versus the paper producing sector.

Although log exports brought fewer direct employment opportunities, higher

values obtained for stumpage in the export market were a boost to rural economies.

Indirect impacts of log export and domestic industries in the PNW occurred when
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

22

companies and their employees spent the income received from stumpage or timber

processing. These receipts determine the investment levels and other expenditures

affecting employment in supporting industries. Money continues to change hands,

creating a multiplier effect that stops when the money leaves the region. By spending profits locally after harvesting, stumpage owners were believed to contribute to

the indirect multiplier effect. Unfortunately, difficulty in tracking how PNW stumpage owners actually spend receipts precludes testing the validity of this claim.

Community stability in forested areas is linked to concerns for social and

economic well-being of community members whose fortunes are somehow tied to

the allocation of forest resources (Society of American Foresters 1989). In this

view, community stability is associated with jobs and income generated directly or

indirectly through the harvest and processing of forest products. Diversity of

economic base is often absent; forest sector shocks dominate economic trends

because dependence on forest industry reduces adaptive capability in communities.

In these areas, stability depended on market demand and a steady reliable supply of

forest output. Community well-being was gauged solely as a function of forest

sector health; log exports were viewed as a threat to regional stability.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Year

Employees (thousands)

Lumber and wood products* Paper and allied products**

Figure 17—Employment in forest products industry, Washington and Oregon.

* Lumber and plywood products industry includes logging, lumber, plywood, poles, pilings, and

miscellaneous wood products, excluding furniture.

** Paper and allied products industry includes pulp, paper, paperboard, and building board products.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

23

This perspective on community stability ignores that the presence of intact,

healthy forests is often linked to higher quality of life. The prosperity of a region

increasingly depends on the ability to attract and retain skilled workers. Availability

of nontimber resources and amenities, such as tourism, recreation, and opportunity

for personal enjoyment contributes to overall attractiveness of a community (Niemi

et al. 2000). Because it fails to incorporate social as well as economic factors to

gauge community well-being, the community stability argument has been criticized

in recent years.

Macroeconomic Factors Influence the Debate

One major impetus for debate over log exports in the United States involves

changes in macroeconomic activity. Once trade flows are established, they continue

to be influenced by a variety of macroeconomic factors, both domestically and

internationally. Interactions among these factors influence international and

domestic supply, demand, prices, and trade policies. Housing starts, business

cycles, gains from trade, interest rates, currency exchange rates, and governmental

subsidies impact both domestic forest industry and forest product trade.

Housing starts—

Trends in housing are a key indicator for forecasting demand for wood products,

both in the United States and internationally. Change in the rate of housing starts

indicates change in wood product demand in nations that use wood building

materials for housing construction. In the United States, demand for wood products

is driven primarily from demand for new housing, although the repair/remodel

sector is growing. Cycles in home construction activity lead to volatility in the

timber industry. Periods of high housing demand are accompanied by an increase

in the price of lumber as a construction input and stumpage as a component of

lumber. Periods of low housing demand predictably have the opposite effect;

lumber and stumpage prices fall. Periods of high housing demand force greater

competition among stumpage purchasers in both domestic and export markets in

response to supply constraints. Housing starts for the United States are displayed

in figure 13.

Business cycles—

The periods between recessions and expansions are called business cycles. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, there have been 11 recessions in

the U.S. economy since World War II (table 1). In general, during recessionary

periods, demand for construction materials declines because housing demand
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

24

declines. Domestic timber markets are depressed from reduced demand for lumber

and other wood products, resulting in low timber and commodity prices, mill

shutdowns, and unemployment.

Recessions had major impacts on the timber industry in the 1970s, the 1980s,

and the 1990s. However, strong housing demand was maintained during the

recession of 2001, demonstrating that exceptions to the pattern exist. During times

of domestic economic slowdown, log exports are perceived more positively by the

industry. Exports provide returns to timber owners, generate foreign exchange, and

improve the competitive position of U.S. forest products in international markets.

In contrast, when the United States has periods of high economic activity (an

expansion), housing demand increases. Demand for wood construction materials

prompts an increase in forest sector employment. Prices for timber and lumber

soar, and domestic mills must compete for logs with exporters. These market

conditions consistently resurrected the log export controversy as domestic producers who perceive themselves injured by declining log availability sought relief

through governmental intervention (Wiseman and Sedjo 1985).

As the world economy moves toward globalization, periods of expansion and

recession are more likely to encompass many countries at the same time. Countries

experiencing economic growth simultaneously have a global impact on demand,

resulting in higher prices in both domestic and international markets. On the other

hand, recessions in the United States are more likely to spill over to trading partners from industrial countries in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Slowing foreign

Table 1—United States business cycles

Business cycle Trough from Peak from

Trough Peak previous trough previous peak

– – – – – – Months – – – – – –

October 1945 November 1948 88 45

October 1949 July 1953 48 56

May 1954 August 1957 55 49

April 1958 April 1960 47 32

February 1961 December 1969 34 116

November 1970 November 1973 117 47

March 1975 January 1980 52 74

July 1980 July 1981 64 18

November 1982 July 1990 28 108

March 1991 March 2001 100 128

March 2001 November 2001 128

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research 2003.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

25

demand slows purchases of U.S. wood product exports, compounding negative

effects already felt in the United States. Thus, business cycles have a global as well

as domestic dimension.

Interest rates—

Monetary policy, in the form of interest rates, has played an important role in

causing business cycles in the United States. Interest rates are a crucial determinant

of how much firms and consumers will invest. If interest rates are low, consumers

borrow more. Purchases of new homes increase because favorable lending rates

make mortgage payments more affordable. In general, low interest rates trigger

more consumer spending and less saving.

High interest rates have the opposite effect, less spending and more saving.

Terms of lending make investment less affordable and raise monthly mortgage

payments. A firm faced with high interest rates may postpone building a new

factory because the cost of borrowing is too high. Consumers may postpone

decisions to purchase a new home until rates are more favorable.

Because interest rates play a key role in consumer decisions to invest in

housing, they are a key factor affecting the housing construction industry, which in

turn affects the timber industry. By influencing mortgage rates for housing, interest

rates indirectly influence wood demand.

Currency exchange rates—

Fluctuations in currency cause fluctuations in the supply of imported or exported

raw materials and finished products. Weakening currency loses value relative to

other currencies; lower price of exports compared with other countries increases

volume of exports demanded. For example, when the dollar is weak compared to

other currencies, U.S. exports become cheaper to import, and demand for U.S.

goods abroad increases. However, when the dollar is strong compared to other

currencies, U.S. exports become more expensive to import and overseas demand

for U.S. goods declines. Figure 18 displays the exchange rate of Japanese yen per

one U.S. dollar between 1970 and 2002.

In the log export market, variation in the exchange rate between two currencies

can cause price variation regardless of other log supply or demand factors. Currency exchange volatility also helps explain log purchaser behavior patterns that

seem unusual or illogical. Japan does not experience PNW domestic prices; they

only experience prices in yen. Curious trends in Japan’s demand for PNW logs can

be explained by simply converting log prices from dollars to yen. For example, in

the late eighties, export log prices reached record highs, yet strangely, Japan was
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

26

increasing log purchases. Because of a strong yen, U.S. dollar prices in yen were

favorable enough to continue PNW log purchases.

Holding the 1968 U.S. dollar price per thousand board feet of logs constant

illustrates the percentage reduction in log prices in yen strictly attributable to

exchange rates (fig. 19). Allowed to float in 1971, the yen has experienced periods

of strengthening and weakening like any other currency. In periods of strengthened

yen, goods like logs become appreciably cheaper for Japanese importers. On the

other hand, weakening of the yen results in greater costs to Japanese importers.

Thus, the yen price fluctuates with exchange rates, which, among other factors,

contributes to the relative attractiveness of one supply region over another. Japan’s

decisions on purchases between competing suppliers are influenced by exchange

rates between yen and the currency of that supplier. Although, in reality, PNW log

prices are not held constant, this example highlights the role that exchange rates

play in the decisionmaking of importing countries.

Government assistance—

An interesting outcome of the early 1980s recession was the USDA timber sales

subsidies and buy-back program. Traditionally, contract arrangements for federal

timber allowed firms to purchase cutting rights for standing timber and then delay

harvesting for 2 to 5 years until market conditions became favorable. This policy

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Year

Japanese yen per U.S. dollar

Figure 18—Currency exchange: yen per dollar.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

27

led to widespread speculation because, in the seventies, companies could buy a

contract for federal timber and count on it being worth far more by the time it was

harvested because of increasing prices.

When the recession hit, stumpage prices dropped owing to lower inflation rates

and housing demand. Timber firms were left holding vast inventories of uncut

federal timber that were overpriced relative to declining domestic prices. In other

words, companies purchased stumpage during the high inflation period of 1979

through 1980 and were faced with having to harvest the timber in the recessionary

environment in the early eighties. High-priced stumpage purchased before the

recession became unprofitable to harvest. To illustrate, the average stumpage price

of timber sold on public lands in the PNW west side dropped from $311 per

thousand board feet in 1980 to $83 in 1982 (Ruderman 1985).

Legislation introduced to give relief to holders of these federal timber contracts

was signed by President Reagan in 1984. This legislation released firms from

contracts for billions of board feet of uncut timber and then resold the same sales

back to the companies at recession-level prices. The USDA Forest Service bought

back bankrupt contracts from stumpage purchasers, which sharply increased supply

of federal timber. All in all, the industry sold about 10 billion board feet of uncut

timber back to the federal government.

Figure 19—Reduction in log cost attributable to dollar and yen exchange rates.

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Year

Change in price (percent)

Base year 1968
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

28

Log Export Legislation

Most log export debate and subsequent trade restriction occurred during times of

economic boom when high domestic demand caused the simultaneous decrease in

log availability and increase in log price in both domestic and international markets. Proponents of restricting log exports argued that logs would be diverted back

into domestic markets, making more volume available for domestic product manufacture. In 1968, domestic processors successfully lobbied for the first legislation to

restrict log exports from federal lands. A brief discussion of subsequent log export

restrictions follows. Lane (1998) provides an intensive treatment of this subject for

readers interested in further information.

Joint Determination by Secretaries of Agriculture and Interior (1968)—

On April 16, 1968, the Secretaries of Agriculture and the Interior issued a joint

determination that log exports from Forest Service (USFS) and Bureau of Land

Management (BLM) lands in western Oregon and western Washington be restricted to maintain a viable domestic wood processing industry. Volume for

export was limited to 350 million board feet annually to be divided between

USFS and BLM lands in both states. The joint determination was scheduled for

review and renewal in June 30, 1969, but was superseded by the Morse Amendment on January 1, 1969.

Morse Amendment to Foreign Assistance Act (1968)—

This act legislated the same log export quotas initiated by the joint determination

but extended area under restriction to include all federal lands west of the 100th

meridian. The 350 million board feet of exempted volume was redistributed

between federal lands in Washington, Oregon, and California. This legislation also

authorized regulations to prevent substitution of federal timber for nonfederal

timber eligible for export. This was the first mention of substitution, whereby

timber owners not subject to the ban are prohibited from expanding exports from

their own holdings by substituting timber purchased from federal lands in domestic

uses (Lindell 1978).

Department of the Interior and Related Agencies Appropriations Acts

(Appropriations Rider) (1974)—

Congress attached a rider to Department of the Interior and Related Agencies

Appropriation Act, which initiated a near total ban on unprocessed timber exports

from federal lands west of the 100th meridian. This legislation, which constituted a
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

29

complete export ban on federal timber, was considerably more restrictive than

provisions imposed under the Morse amendment. Additionally, the appropriations

rider issued an actual directive to prohibit substitution. Formerly, the Secretaries of

Agriculture and the Interior were only authorized to enact regulations to prevent

substitution. Federal lands in Alaska were not included; log exports from Alaska

were restricted by the Organic Administration Act of 1897.

Log exports from state-owned lands in Oregon and California were banned in

1961 and 1972, respectively. After the ban on exports from federal lands, private

timber owners in Washington and Oregon and Washington state lands managed by

the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) became virtually the only sources of

softwood log exports. Attempts to extend legislation to impose restrictions on

exports from Washington state lands were common (Parks and Cox 1985).

Forest Resources Conservation and Shortage Relief Act (1990)—

This act was passed in response to sharply constrained timber supplies following

the listing of the northern spotted owl as threatened. It was the first legislation to

restrict individual states from exporting unprocessed timber from state-owned

lands. The intent of the law was to promote conservation of forest resources, ensure

U.S. for-est resources were not exhausted, and guarantee constant and available

supply to meet domestic needs. Also, the act greatly restricted substitution and

prohibited indirect substitution for the first time. Timber sold from DNR lands in

Washington was required to be given primary processing in the United States. This

was the first time state timber was included in the log export ban. Thus, as a result

of efforts to protect domestic processors from export competition, only timber

supplied from private landowners was eligible for export from the PNW (Lippke

1994).

Legislation prohibiting log exports from public lands was the first in a series

of supply and demand side shocks disrupting triangular trade flows. The tendency,

beginning in 1968, to limit softwood logs exported from Western forests continues

today. The effectiveness, winners, and losers of this evolution in trade policy

have been debated (Perez-Garcia et al. 1994, Sedjo and Wiseman 1983, Sedjo

et al. 1992).

United States Lumber Import Restrictions

Another example of government policies designed to protect the domestic processing industry centers around the lumber trade with Canada. The United States and

Canada have been involved in a trade dispute since the 1980s. This dispute was

initiated by the U.S. softwood lumber industry in response to rapid expansion of
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

30

softwood lumber imports from Canada. United States domestic producers sought to

use trade restrictions to limit imports of less expensive Canadian softwood lumber,

claiming that Canada’s stumpage pricing system subsidized lumber producers.

The Canadian Softwood Lumber Agreement (1996)—

In May 1996, this bilateral trade dispute was temporarily settled by the Canadian

Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA) between the United States and Canada

(Fukuda 2001). The SLA was a 5-year voluntary agreement whereby producers

from Canada’s four largest lumber producing provinces could export up to 14.7

billion board feet of softwood lumber into the United States without export fee.

These provinces were British Columbia, Ontario, Alberta, and Quebec. High fees

were imposed on volumes exceeding that limit, but no limit was placed on the

volume Canada could export. Ironically, during the first 4 years of the SLA, softwood imports from Canada rose from 17.3 billion board feet to 18.4 billion board

feet, primarily owing to growth in shipments from provinces not subject to the

quota (Haynes 2003a).

Although the SLA provided protection for some U.S. domestic producers, U.S.

competitiveness in international markets suffered from unintended consequences.

Because it limits the amount of lumber Canada can export to the U.S. duty free, the

SLA forced Canadian producers to sell excess supply at lower prices to offshore

markets. As Canadian domestic lumber prices dropped, Canadian producers exported more lumber and secondary products to the Pacific Rim. Expansion of lumber to the Pacific Rim accelerated the shift from U.S. log exports to lumber exports

from Canada and Europe as Japanese buyers saw high U.S. log and lumber prices

relative to other supply regions.

Loss of offshore markets also forced PNW lumber producers into U.S. markets

traditionally served by the lower cost U.S. South. The PNW had long been at a

competitive disadvantage with the U.S. South in serving wood products to Eastern

and Southern U.S. markets. In the U.S. South, relatively inexpensive timber supplies were plentiful, and favorable prices triggered milling capacity expansion in

lumber as well as pulp and paper industries (fig. 20).

Because the South has never been a major exporter to the Pacific Rim, Southern lumber exports generally have not directly competed with Canadian lumber.

Ironically, Southern mills benefited more from the SLA than PNW mills as U.S.

South exports have increased compared to the loss in PNW exports (Lippke

et al. 1999b). Thus, the SLA may have contributed to loss of PNW export market

share to the U.S. South.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

31

Other possible consequences of the SLA include material substitution in U.S.

housing construction. Raising the costs of Canadian producers by imposing fees

on imported lumber could increase the use of nonwood substitutes. As lumber

becomes more expensive, builders in the United States may find building materials

like concrete or steel to be more cost effective. Internationally, producers in other

supply regions might capitalize on the decline in Canadian imports to increase their

own exports of lumber into the United States, in effect substituting restricted

lumber imports from Canada for unrestricted lumber imports from other regions.

Countervailing and antidumping—

The voluntary softwood lumber agreement expired on March 31, 2001. Soon after

the expiration, the U.S. Coalition for Fair Lumber Imports filed countervailing and

antidumping duty petitions against the Canadians with the United States government, which initiated a U.S. Department of Commerce investigation.

A countervailing duty is a tax applied on imports found to be unfairly subsidized. The countervailing duty petition alleged a subsidy rate of 39.9 percent and

named Canadian federal and provincial stumpage and log export constraints, as

well as 5 federal government and 22 provincial government programs, as the

sources of the subsidies. Consequently, in 2003, Canadians exporting softwood

lumber to the United States currently were charged a 19.3 percent countervailing

duty imposed by the U.S. government.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

Year

Southern lumber production (billion board feet)

Figure 20—Southern softwood lumber production.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

32

Dumping is a term used to describe the sale of goods to another country at less

than what they cost to produce. The antidumping petition against Canadian exporters alleged margins of 22.53 percent to 72.91 percent. In 2003, the average antidumping duty charged to Canadian exporters was 12.57 percent.

Resolving the softwood lumber dispute remains a top Canadian trade priority.

To this end, the Canadian government has challenged the U.S. determination of

subsidy before the World Trade Organization (WTO) and under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA Secretariat 1994), and has held WTO consultations concerning the U.S. determination of dumping. Market participants on both

sides of the border await the final determination.

The gap between U.S. domestic consumption and production of lumber is

forecast to exist well into the future. Reducing imports to encourage domestic

production for domestic markets requires increased investment in capacity that is

limited by capital requirements and environmental constraints. Until U.S. producers invest in additional sawmill capacity, domestic demand for lumber exceeding

domestic production will be met with imports (Fukuda 2001). Whether Canada

remains the dominant supplier to the U.S. market increasingly depends on the

ability of the United States to compete against other global suppliers. One thing is

certain, lumber trade with Canada has replaced the log export debate as the most

controversial trade policy of the new millennium.

Prices in Domestic and Export Markets

Regional markets are generally guided by the concept of price arbitrage. Arbitrage

refers to buying something in one market then immediately selling it in another

market for a higher price (Stockman 1996). Arbitrage opportunities lead to trade;

when two locations are in different countries, it leads to international trade.2

2

 If a profit opportunity does exist, arbitrage, by buying low and selling high, will quickly

eliminate it. For example, suppose that Southern pine lumber sells for $150/thousand board

feet in Lufkin, Texas, and $200/thousand board feet in Opp, Alabama. A profit opportunity

exists because someone could buy lumber in Lufkin and sell it in Opp. In the absence of any

shipping or other costs, this individual would make $50/thousand board feet in risk-free

profits. However, as profiteers start buying up lumber in Lufkin and selling it in Opp, they

drive the price up in Lufkin and down in Opp. This process continues until the price

difference between the two locations narrows to a level that just covers transaction costs,

such as transportation. Thus, the act of arbitrage will eliminate profit opportunities by

reducing or eliminating price differences between two markets for the same good. In

general, consumers in Opp and producers in Lufkin will benefit from arbitrage, whereas

consumers in Lufkin and producers in Opp will not.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

33

In a smoothly functioning competitive market, there will be few, if any, opportunities to exploit pricing differences. Log export restrictions introduce arbitrage

opportunities because restrictions limit market access, causing diverging price

trends in stumpage, logs, and lumber markets (Adams and Haynes 1991).

Stumpage Prices

In Washington, as a result of log export restrictions, stumpage prices paid for the

right to harvest from federal or state lands reflect the opportunity to sell exclusively to domestic markets. Conversely, stumpage prices paid to harvest from

private timberlands reflect the opportunity to sell in both export and domestic

markets as logs harvested from private lands flow into both these markets.

Although private timber owners are eligible to purchase timber from state and

federal governments, doing so precludes participation in the export market owing

to provisions prohibiting substitution.

When standing timber is cut, it will yield a certain percentage of logs with the

species, size, and quality characteristics desired by the export market. Total quantity of logs supplied by timber owners is a function of stumpage prices that blend

log prices in export and domestic markets adjusted for costs of harvesting and

transportation.

During the 1970s, stumpage prices peaked twice, in 1973 and in 1979 (fig. 21).

Expanded demand from parallel housing booms in both the United States and

Japan caused tightening in PNW softwood log supply. High demand in the face of

tight supply forced log, lumber, and other product prices to record highs, causing

prices in the stumpage market to rise as well.

Stumpage prices in the PNW dropped precipitously during the severe national

recession of 1980 through 1982. By 1983, increased levels of residential and

commercial construction signaled the end of the recession for the forest products

industry. Increased stumpage prices from 1984 to the late 1980s reflected a period

of high economic growth brought on by macroeconomic factors.

Until the end of the 1980s, most price volatility in stumpage markets resulted

from demand-side pressures. In 1989, PNW stumpage prices reached a decade peak

of $377.73 per thousand board feet in response to severe cutbacks in federal timber

sale volume owing to the listing of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis

Caurina) as an endangered species. Tightened supply raised the price of Western

timber species, impacting production levels and thus, exports. The period of

declining stumpage prices seen immediately following the run-up occurred during

the Gulf War when the United States experienced a short economic downturn. After
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

34

1990, stumpage prices rose sharply in response to volatility in lumber prices and

peaked at $581 per thousand board feet in 1993. This near doubling of stumpage

price stimulated demand for wood from lower cost international suppliers, as well

as nonwood substitutes like concrete and steel. As the world responded to large

PNW supply changes, stumpage prices retreated to $242 per thousand board feet in

2000 (Warren 2003).

Log Prices

Demand for logs is a derived demand that rests ultimately on lumber demand. In

the absence of export bans, it would be possible to model the trade between

Washington and Japan by considering only two integrated markets: the log market

and the lumber market. For each commodity, there would be a single price, apart

from transportation costs, that would prevail in both countries owing to price

arbitrage.

The partial export ban on PNW logs prevented the establishment of one

uniform price in PNW log markets. Darr (1975b) pointed out that restriction was

contributing to the development of two distinct markets for logs in the PNW. There

was a definite price difference between logs channeled into domestic markets and

those destined for export. The existence of export restrictions has led to a dual

market for PNW logs; export and domestic log prices display a real price differential that remains even after adjustment for quality and species differences.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Year

Stumpage price ($/thousand board feet)

Figure 21—Pacific Northwest stumpage prices, nominal dollars.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

35

Export markets introduce foreign demand factors affecting forest product

values and contributing to quality-sensitive demand differences (Lippke and

Perez-Garcia 1998). Japanese preference for high-quality and supply continuity,

combined with an advantage in labor-intensive processing and a strong species

preference, resulted in a willingness to pay higher log prices. The development of

different price levels for logs in the two markets, combined with the inability or

unwillingness of the Japanese to substitute in the quality spectrum, resulted in an

export price premium.

Flora et al. (1991) found that in 1988, export log prices ranged from $150 to

over $3,500 per thousand board feet, with much of the differential attributable to

log quality. Figure 22 displays the export price premium for Douglas-fir logs in

northwest Washington from 1989 to 2003. The Japan 12 grade includes highquality export logs destined for Japan; the No. 2 sawmill grade is considered its

domestic counterpart. Export premiums are sensitive to relative market conditions;

by 1989, international markets began tightening in response to PNW harvest reductions. The premium increased dramatically over the next 4 years, with export prices

jumping from $416 per thousand board feet in 1989 to $1,184 per thousand board

feet in 1993. Rapid price increases were seen in domestic sorts as well; domestic

Douglas-fir log price increased from $318 in 1989 to $1,046 in 1993 (Log Lines

1989 through 2003).

Record prices and tightened supplies of traditional PNW species and grades

encouraged Japanese buyers to experiment with alternative species and products.

The PNW advantage in log production was jeopardized as substitutes for PNW

logs became available from alternative international log suppliers. For example, the

export market for PNW hemlock logs was devastated by market restructuring

following high prices in the 1990s. Hemlock had been largely purchased by international users who have since substituted other whitewood species from Russia,

Europe, New Zealand, and Chile. Price premiums for PNW hemlock logs are

unlikely to ever reach levels experienced in the 1990s again (Lippke et al. 1999b).

As was illustrated in figure 4, Japanese purchasers were willing to pay higher

prices for PNW logs for several years. However, even after paying higher prices, it

was not possible for Japan’s mills to replace lost log import volume. Raw material

shortages triggered expanded imports of processed products such as lumber as the

only practical alternative to meet the demands of Japan’s construction industry.

Thus, the PNW lost its advantage in supplying Japan’s markets to international

suppliers like Canada and Europe that had developed an advantage in producing

processed materials.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

36

Export log prices remained high until 1997 when Japanese demand collapsed

as a result of the Asian financial crisis. Between 1997 and 1998, Douglas-fir prices

fell by almost half to $639 per thousand board feet. The Asian financial crisis and

other market changes impacting Japan’s demand for PNW softwood logs are fully

addressed in a later section.

Lumber Prices

Logs may be diverted directly into export markets, or they may be utilized by

domestic lumber processing firms. Domestic lumber processors then decide

whether to channel lumber into export or domestic markets. Because Japan imports

both logs and lumber from the Pacific Northwest, Japan’s demands for lumber and

logs are interrelated. Imported lumber must compete with lumber produced by

Japan from PNW logs. Thus, Japan’s demand for logs imported from Washington is

determined by availability of logs from Japan and other foreign suppliers, log

prices, and lumber prices (Parks and Cox 1985). When export log volumes declined owing to price hikes in the early 1990s, many hoped that higher prices for

logs would have a feedback effect of increasing Japan’s demand for PNW lumber.

Lumber price spikes can be explained by economic activity in general. Prices

increase dramatically during economic boom times, or after significant economic

shocks, and fall rapidly during bust times. This is primarily due to the interrelation

among economic activity, housing demand, and prices of substitute building

materials.

Figure 22—Log export price premium for northwest Washington softwood logs. Source: Log

Lines Reporting Service, 1989-2003.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Log export price ($/thousand board feet)

Japan 12 No. 2 Sawmill

Region 1 = NW Washington

Domestic price

Export price
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

37

The first noticeable period of price fluctuation was in the late 1960s and early

1970s when three price spikes occurred (fig. 23). Price first peaked in 1967 when

inflation and the economy heated up simultaneously in response to rapid expansion

for the Vietnam War. After a mild economic downturn, prices increased from $243

per thousand board feet in 1970 to peak at $385 per thousand board feet in 1973,

increasing competition for log supply. Log exports were blamed for part of the

perceived timber supply problem; the total ban of log exports from federal lands

went into effect in 1973. The peak in 1973 was followed by another recession

brought about by an energy crisis spurred by the Oil Producing and Exporting

Countries. Lumber prices dropped to $257 per thousand board feet by 1975 owing

to decreasing real GDP and dramatically decreased domestic and international

housing demand; mill curtailments and shutdowns were widespread (Sohngen and

Haynes 1994). The last spike of the 1970s occurred when demographic conditions

resulting from the post World War II “baby boom” led to an unprecedented demand

for housing. Demand pressure from a parallel housing boom in the United States

and Japan led to tightened supplies of west coast softwood logs and forced log,

lumber, and plywood prices to record highs.

Rising prices for raw and finished wood products during the seventies housing

boom led to the expansion of lower cost competing producers. Competitors in

Canada and the U.S. South made gains in traditional PNW markets. Despite strong

housing demand, the PNW market share in solid wood products declined. Between

1970 and 1980, the PNW share of total U.S. lumber production dropped from 30

percent to 25 percent. The expansion of sawmill capacity in both Canada and U.S.

South resulted in a loss of market share for PNW producers.

The strong market conditions experienced with the 1970s housing boom were

forecast to continue into the 1980s. Washington and Oregon’s timber operators

celebrated the new decade with phenomenal profits resulting from rapid inflation.

After monetary policies designed to fight persistent inflation were enacted that

same year, inflation rates dropped sharply and real interest rates rose dramatically,

curtailing housing activity and reducing investment. Real GDP dropped by 2.6

percent, unemployment peaked at 10.8 percent, and the country was spun into the

worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Domestic lumber prices

declined to pre-1970s housing boom prices, signaling the end of the high-demand

period (Lippke and Perez-Garcia 1998).

The recession of 1981–82 was particularly devastating to the forest products

industry. Tight monetary policies, high interest rates, slumping housing starts,

declining lumber and plywood prices, domestic production cutbacks, and inflation

crippled the industry. Thousands of timber workers lost their jobs. Forest sector
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

38

employment declined by 39,000 jobs in Oregon and Washington from 1978 to 1982

(Adams 1986). Many companies went bankrupt, merged, or were bought out.

Companies that survived restructured their operations by closing older, inefficient

mills, improving skills of workers, laying off workers, and increasing capital

investment in manufacturing technology (Conway and Wells 1994). Fewer people

had timber jobs, but worker productivity increased as mills invested in cost-cutting

technologies and efficiency. By 1983 and 1984, increased residential and commercial construction signaled the end of the recession and the start of a new business

cycle for the forest products industry.

After the U.S. economy recovered from the 1981-82 recession, lumber prices

remained relatively stable for the remainder of the decade. After a short market

decline from 1989 to 1991 owing to recessionary pressures, prices peaked in 1993

to levels not experienced since the high housing demand period of the 1970s.

Lumber price escalation in the early 1990s was driven by supply, rather than

demand, constraints. In February and March 1991, a lumber price run-up began

with roots in the old-growth controversy. Federal District Judge William Dwyer

issued a sweeping injunction that drastically reduced PNW national forest timber

sale levels from 3,380 million board feet of sales in 1990 to only 297 million board

feet in 1991. Speculative behavior by lumber buyers combined with uncertainty to

contribute momentum to the runup.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Year

Lumber price ($/thousand board feet)

Figure 23—Domestic Douglas-fir lumber prices, 1982 dollars.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

39

By 1993, reduced harvests from forest land in the PNW led to immediate

increases in prices; lumber prices spiked at a high of $366/thousand board feet.

Higher prices mitigated some economic loss to forest landowners from reduced

harvest volumes, but other stakeholders were not so fortunate. Increased prices

decreased lumber production in the PNW region; many PNW mills were forced to

close. Approximately 12,600 primary processing jobs and an equal number of

indirect rural jobs in the PNW have been lost since 1992 (Lippke et al. 1999a).

Price increases also stimulated gains in wood utilization with the development and

adoption of engineered wood products resulting in greater use and value from

lower quality wood.3

 High prices also motivated investment and increased production rates from lower-cost competing suppliers worldwide.

From 1989 to 1997, trends in softwood lumber exports from the U.S. were

driven by changes in PNW exports (fig. 24). Lumber exports from the U.S. South

remained constant throughout this period. By 1999, exports from the PNW had

fallen below Southern exports; the U.S. South overtook the PNW as the dominant

lumber export region. Overall, total volume of U.S. softwood lumber exports

declined by 75 percent between 1989 and 2003 (U.S. Department of Commerce,

1989-2003a).

To sum up, the market for logs is influenced by three interrelated markets: the

lumber market, the domestic log market, and the export log market. These three

markets are fully interdependent in the sense that quantities supplied and demanded

in each market depend not only on the price in that market but also on prices in the

other markets. Changes affecting PNW log export markets are explored in the next

section.

Key Changes Affecting the Log Export Market

Three key changes affecting the log export industry in the PNW were changes in

PNW harvest levels, changes in Asian demand, and the globalization of wood

markets.

3

 Engineered wood products (EWPs) are products used as substitutes for conventional

softwood dimension lumber in markets where structural applications predominate. Demand

for engineered wood products such as glulam, structural wood I-beams, and laminated

veneer lumber grew rapidly in the United States during the 1990s. The efficiency and cost

advantages of EWPs over conventional wood products guarantee their continued growth in

international markets. EWPs have two major advantages in residential and nonresidential

construction applications. First, EWPs have uniform strength properties that enhance design

values and enable more efficient installation. Second, EWP manufacturing uses more

efficient conversion technology; final product yield from raw material inputs is significantly

higher than lumber.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

40

Changes in Pacific Northwest Harvest Levels

In June 1990, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed the northern spotted owl as

threatened throughout its range. Domestic timber harvest levels declined after large

tracts of PNW federal timberlands were withheld for northern spotted owl habitat

under the Endangered Species Act (1973). Between 1988 and 1996, timber harvests

fell 87 percent on national forests and 38 percent overall (Warren 1992, 1999).

Production levels, and thus, exports were impacted by declining sales of

federal timber and state forest practice regulations developed to conserve northern

spotted owl habitat. Subsequent listing of the marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus

marmoratus) and requirements to protect salmon in riparian areas on state and

private lands reduced allowable harvest levels further. Since timber harvest restrictions were first implemented in 1990 to protect endangered species, harvest volumes have declined 30 percent in Washington and over 40 percent in Oregon

(Warren 1999).

Figure 25 displays combined timber harvest by landowner for Washington

and Oregon from 1985 to 2001. Clearly, the bulk of timber harvesting in the PNW

occurs on private forest lands. However, harvest reductions have occurred across

timber owners as federal, state, and private forest lands in Washington and Oregon

implement policies that constrain timber management strategies. These policies,

along with log export market response, are highlighted in the following section.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

Lumber exports (million cubic meters)

Pacific Northwest South Other

Figure 24—United States softwood lumber exports by region.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

41

Federal lands—

The timber industry in the PNW was dealt a serious blow on May 29, 1991, when

Judge Dwyer, ruling on a lawsuit filed by environmental groups seeking to prevent the extinction of the northern spotted owl, banned new timber sales on about

10 million acres in 17 national forests in Washington, Oregon, and northern

California. Federal logging in the three states came to a standstill when he ruled the

federal government had no plan to protect the threatened northern spotted owl. He

found the Forest Service was violating laws by not maintaining a “viable population” of all species found within a particular national forest. The 1991 decision

ordered the USDA Forest Service to adopt a conservation plan in compliance with

the Endangered Species Act (1973) and the National Forest Management Act

(1976) to ensure the survival of the spotted owl before selling additional rights to

log owl habitat areas in national forests.

Dwyer’s injunction remained in place for 2 years. In 1993, the injunction was

lifted when Judge Dwyer accepted the Clinton Administration’s Northwest Forest

Plan record of decision (ROD) (USDA and USDI 1994) as the management plan

for the region. This new plan replaced a timber-driven management focus with an

ecosystem management focus aimed at preserving and increasing old-growth

habitat.

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Year

Timber harvest (billion board feet)

National forest Private Other State

Figure 25—Washington and Oregon timber harvest by owner.

0
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

42

Figure 26 shows the volume of timber sold from Pacific Northwest national

forests from 1965 to 2000. Although sale volume dipped to 3.2 billion board feet

in 1976 and 3.5 billion board feet in 1985, timber sale volume consistently fluctuated between 4 and 5 billion board feet from 1965 to 1988. Volatility introduced

in anticipation of Judge Dwyer’s decision caused timber sale levels to plummet by

2.2 billion board feet between 1988 and 1989. After sale volume peaked again in

1990, supply constraints became the dominant factor influencing timber price and

availability. The following year saw national forest timber sales drop to less than

1 billion board feet per year, a level maintained throughout the 1990s. Former

purchasers of federal timber were forced to rely on the private sector for a larger

share of timber volume.

State lands—

Harvest levels have declined on state forest lands in Washington and Oregon as

well. Regulatory changes in management regimes enacted to preserve critical

habitat and protect endangered species characterize the tradeoffs made between

increased environmental protection and economic impacts on the PNW forest

sector.

The Washington DNR was established in 1957 to serve as a land manager for

a variety of state-owned lands, including forested, aquatic, urban, and agricultural

lands. In its role as a land manager, DNR manages approximately 0.8 million

hectares of state forest land. Approximately 0.6 million hectares of this forest land

is in western Washington (west side).

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Year

Timber sales (billion board feet)

Figure 26—National forest harvest volumes.

0
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

43

As the land manager of 0.6 million hectares of Washington west-side trust

forest lands, the DNR has two main purposes. The DNR has a fiduciary responsibility to create trust revenue as manager for public trusts, such as schools. Secondly, DNR is responsible for maintaining habitat and sensitive resources on lands

under its management. To achieve these two potentially conflicting mandates, the

DNR has developed policies, procedures, and strategies governing their management of trust forest lands.

State trust forest land management is conducted within the framework of state

and federal laws, the DNR’s 1992 Forest Resource Plan (FRP), 1997 Habitat

Conservation Plan (HCP), the 2001 Forest Practices Rules (in instances where they

are more protective than the HCP), and with oversight provided by the Board of

Natural Resources. The FRP and the HCP have the greatest impact on harvesting

from Washington state lands.

The FRP was developed to guide the management of state forest land for a 10-

year period (1992-2002). The FRP describes DNR’s guiding policies and priorities

for management of trust forest lands (WADNR 1992). The FRP was extended until

June 2005 to allow for the completion of the sustainable harvest calculations for

western and eastern Washington. The sustainable harvest level is the volume of

timber scheduled for sale from state-owned lands during a planning decade as

calculated by the DNR and approved by the Board of Natural Resources. The

sustainable harvest level is part of DNR’s strategic plan for managing state forests

to ensure future benefits to trust beneficiaries while maintaining a viable forest

resource.

The DNR also manages west-side trust forest lands according to a multispecies

habitat conservation plan (HCP) agreement with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

and the National Marine Fisheries Service. The plan covers the approximately 0.6

million hectares of DNR state trust lands located within the range of the northern

spotted owl. The HCP ensures that the DNR can manage forests located in endangered species habitat without fear of prosecution under the federal Endangered

Species Act. In exchange, the DNR is required to implement forest management

practices that conserve threatened and endangered species and habitat outside of

actively managed areas. Thus, the HCP provides DNR assurance that timber

harvesting and other management activities will continue while providing for

threatened and endangered species conservation (WADNR 1997).

Improvements in DNR forest inventory data, recalculation of the 10-year

sustainable timber harvest level required for the new FRP, and several years of land

management under the 1997 HCP collectively have resulted in a suite of management regimes on Washington west-side state forest trust lands. The challenge of
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

44

meeting mandated obligations to trust beneficiaries while providing endangered

species protection presents a significant challenge to establishing cohesive forest

management policies on Washington state forest lands.

As an interesting side note, trade policy regarding log exports from Washington

state lands has also impacted revenues to trust beneficiaries. The spotted owl

controversy rekindled the debate over log export restrictions as the domestic timber

industry scrambled to gain access to more raw materials to substitute for lost

federal timber. In 1990, federal lawmakers passed the Forest Resources Conservation and Shortage Relief Act, which banned the export of logs from Washington

state forests.

Prohibiting state logs from entering export markets was intended to offset a

portion of lost federal log supply to Washington mills, ensuring availability for

local processing. However, declining federal harvest levels resulted in higher

domestic log prices as mills competed for the reduced supply. Although private

timber suppliers were not constrained by the ban, higher prices in domestic markets

diverted logs from private sources previously destined for export back into domestic markets. Most of the diversion in log exports was market response to tight U.S.

markets and high domestic prices, not a result of the state ban.

Lippke et al. (1999b) describe one unintended consequence of legislation

prohibiting export of state logs. Because federal supply reductions were greater in

Oregon than in Washington, almost half of the log sales from Washington state

lands were purchased by processors in Oregon, rather than intended processors in

Washington. Ironically, the ban on state log exports caused much of the loss in

revenue to Washington’s trust beneficiaries to be gained by mills in Oregon rather

than Washington.

In Oregon, the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) manages approximately

315 655 hectares of forest lands. State forest lands represent about 3 percent of

Oregon’s forests and are jointly owned by the Oregon Board of Forestry and the

Oregon State Land Board. Over 200 million board feet of timber valued at approximately $100 million was harvested from state forest lands in 2000, producing

revenues for schools, counties, and local taxing districts.

State forest lands in Oregon are managed under broad forest management

plans. Board of Forestry lands are similar to Washington DNR state forest trust

lands in that the Board of Forestry is mandated to secure the greatest permanent

value from its forests. In a recent administrative rule, the board defined this to

mean healthy, productive, and sustainable forest ecosystems that over time and

across the landscape provide a full range of social, economic, and environmental

benefits to the people of Oregon.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

45

The ODF also manages 50 181 hectares of Common School forest lands owned by

the State Land Board. These lands were granted to the state by the federal government at the time of statehood to support Oregon’s public schools. Under the

Constitution, the State Land Board must manage and protect these lands for the

maximum, long-term benefit of Oregon public schools.

Western Oregon state forests operate within their own current and proposed

HCPs. The Elliott State Forest Management Plan and HCP are under revision. The

current Elliott HCP for northern spotted owls and marbled murrelets was approved

by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1995. During the next 2 years, the ODF

will be completing a proposed HCP for threatened and endangered species in western Oregon state forests. Extensive public and scientific input since 1998 helped

shape the draft strategies; the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine

Fisheries Service have authority to adopt the plan and an associated environmental

impact statement.

During the 1997 legislative session, the Oregon Legislature passed the Oregon

Plan for Salmon and Watersheds (ODF 2003). The initiative outlined a conservation plan for protecting and improving salmon and salmon habitat. The plan is

aimed at protecting watersheds and contributing to the conservation and recovery

of native fish stocks in cooperation with other government agencies and landowners. Although the plan was initially tailored to address coho salmon (Oncorhynchus

kisutch Walbaum) concerns, it has evolved to address other species throughout

Oregon. The goal is to restore populations and fisheries to productive and sustainable levels that will provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits.

Changing societal goals for state forest lands undoubtedly has reduced timber

harvesting on state lands in Washington and Oregon. The loss of timber revenue to

trust beneficiaries, schools, and other entities in both states highlights the impacts

that can result from species protection on public forests.

Private lands—

Eventually environmental restrictions imposed on public forests spread into the

private sector. Forest practice regulations and salmon recovery plans targeting

private forest landowners have impacted timber harvest in both Oregon and

Washington.

The Oregon Forest Practices Act (FPA), voted into law by the legislature in

1971, was the first of its kind in the Nation. The act encouraged economically

efficient forest management in Oregon and the continuous growing and harvesting

of trees and maintenance on nearly 5 million hectares of nonfederal forest land that
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

46

is consistent with the protection of forest resources through the sound management

of soil, air, water, fish, and wildlife resources (ODF 2003).

The FPA rules apply to harvesting, reforestation, road construction and repair,

slash disposal, chemical use, and stream, lake, and wetland protection. Sensitive

resource sites, such as bird nesting and roosting locations, and threatened and

endangered species sites are also protected under the rules.

The 1994 Oregon Department of Forestry Forest Practice Water Protection

Rules require the establishment of riparian management areas (RMAs) on most

streams that are within or adjacent to a harvest unit (ODF 2003). The RMA width

requirements differ depending on stream classification. A landowner has multiple

options for managing RMAs. For example, one option is to harvest conifer trees

within riparian management areas that are in excess of standard basal area targets,

while maintaining a 6-meter no-cut buffer zone as measured from the average

annual high-water mark.

In 1974, the Washington state legislature wrote the Washington FPA following

more than a year of discussion among large and small timber processors, environmental groups, state agencies, and counties. The goal of the FPA was to protect

forest resources while assuring that Washington continued to be a productive

timber-growing state. The act regulated activities related to growing, harvesting, or

processing timber on all local government, state, and private forest lands. The act

was designed to protect timber supply, soil, water, fish, wildlife, and amenity

resources by regulating timber removals, road construction and maintenance,

reforestation, and the use of forest chemicals.

The FPA requires the DNR to administer and enforce all adopted rules. Forest

landowners in Washington must get permission from the state to conduct logging,

road building, and most other forest management practices by filing a forest

practice application. Each forest practice application is reviewed by the state to

ensure compliance with forest practice rules.

Forest practice rules have been amended and strengthened 13 times since they

were established in 1975. The most recent changes were the result of the Forests

and Fish Law (WADNR 1999), adopted by the legislature in 1999 in response to

federal listings of endangered salmon and impaired water quality on nonfederal

forest lands.

The Forests and Fish Law mandated changes to forest practices rules to protect

fish habitat and water quality on 3.24 million hectares of private forest land in

Washington state. The new law required private forest land owners to manage

riparian vegetation and sediment to provide stream habitat and clean water for

salmon. Activities such as improving road culverts for easier upstream migration,
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

47

improving road construction to reduce stream sedimentation, and enlarging and

maintaining buffer zones along streambanks to provide shade and keep water cool

have been mandated for long-term recovery of salmon on more than 96 500 kilometers of streams (Washington Forest Protection Association 2002).

Harvest reductions resulting from the protection of aquatic resources occur in

riparian buffer zones along streams. Lippke et al. (1999a) estimated the economic

impacts on private landowners in Washington from mandated riparian management

changes alone to equal net present worth losses of $3.2 to $5.6 billion, depending

on the selected management alternative. They also point out that high regulatory

costs may provide incentive for small, nonindustrial forest land owners to liquidate

timber assets and convert to alternative land uses. Thus, higher management costs

from aquatic resource protection may ultimately reduce the economic viability of

commercial forest management in the PNW.

Log export market response—

Harvest constraints in the PNW triggered long-term industry structural adjustment

in both export and domestic markets. Prior to the 1991 injunction, the industry

exported more than 3 billion board feet of logs annually, or about one-fourth of all

logs cut in the region. By 1996, log exports had dropped by half (Niemi et al.

2000). Logs formerly destined for domestic markets consisted of old-growth and

lower grade second-growth while export log markets were stratified by quality

differences in second growth. Competition between exporters and domestic processors for PNW softwood logs caused domestic prices to rise enough to compete with

export prices. The log export market suffered after overseas prices jumped in

response to reduce availability of export logs.

Export volume declines were largely experienced in hemlock and lower grade

sorts to Korea and China. Substitution for lower cost whitewoods from other

supply regions permanently reduced the price for PNW hemlock while the premium for Douglas-fir climbed to new highs. Chinese softwood log imports peaked

in 1988 with 1.05 billion board feet and rapidly declined to 11.9 million board feet

in 1996. Korean imports peaked at 658 million board feet in 1989 then gradually

declined to 74 million in 1996 (Warren 1992, 1999). Because these nations were

more sensitive to price than Japan, high PNW log prices drove both nations to

other suppliers.

Japanese markets were forced to adapt to reduced availability and increased

prices when the high-quality logs sought by Japanese purchasers began ending up

in domestic markets (Flora and McGinnis 1989). Overall, Douglas-fir log export

volume to Japan declined by 30 percent between 1989 and 1991. In spite of
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

48

declining export volume, Japanese willingness to pay record high premiums for

Douglas-fir logs meant total PNW export log revenues actually increased in 1991

and remained high until 1997, when demand collapsed in response to the Asian

financial crisis (U.S. Department of Commerce 1989-2003a).

Even with higher prices, it was not possible for Japan to replace lost log import

volume; reduced exports created a shortfall in Japanese processing facilities.

Eventually Japanese importers secured substitutes for PNW high-quality logs;

supply shortages forced the acceptance of lower quality materials. Technologies in

Japanese wood utilization, processing capacity, and construction techniques began

to change (Flora and McGinnis 1989). Demand for engineered wood products

(EWPs) in Japan increased after the residential construction sector successfully

experimented with products like glulam beams in traditional post and beam housing. These developments, along with the Asian financial crisis and other factors

that have diminished Japan’s demand for PNW logs, are described later in the text.

After constraints on public harvest, domestic markets changed as well. By

1992, 75 percent of the softwood harvest in the PNW originated from private lands.

The majority of private timberlands were stocked with second- and third-growth,

compared to old-growth timber on public lands. Old-growth timber, once a major

component of timber harvests, was virtually nonexistent on private timberlands.

Declining availability of old-growth drove technology changes as mills were

refitted to process smaller diameter timber. Lumber produced from smaller diameter second- and third-growth trees has more juvenile wood, more knots, diminished strength properties, and reduced performance (UN ECE 2000). Supply and

quality problems in the lumber industry opened the door for wood and nonwood

substitutes. Engineered wood products were also penetrating domestic markets as

alternatives to old-growth timber products.

In Washington, export volumes and harvest levels declined simultaneously,

which sustained flow of logs to local mills for processing. However, because there

was a greater decline in harvest volume and a lower volume of log exports in

Oregon, there was substantial reduction in local processing in Oregon. Pacific

Northwest logging and processing costs increased by almost 20 percent relative to

those of the U.S. South (Lippke et al. 1999b). Production of primary products such

as lumber and pulp declined as margins fell below cashflow levels necessary to

sustain capacity. In addition, higher prices raised the cost of wood inputs for

secondary processors, raising the cost of secondary wood products. Losses to

primary and secondary processors reduced PNW competitiveness in international

markets.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

49

Poor markets and reduced timber harvest led to widespread mill shutdowns

and unemployment in the forest industries in the PNW. By far, the majority of

closures occurred in small mills. Figure 27 illustrates the change in the number of

Washington sawmills by mill size from 1970 to 2000. Mill size is classified

according to mill capacity in board feet (lumber tally) per 8-hour shift (WADNR

1970 to 2000). Figure 27 illustrates that the number of mills in the B, C, and D mill

size classes declined overall since the 1960s. The decline in the number of size D

mills from 127 in 1968 to 14 in 1998 was especially dramatic. On the other hand,

the number of size A mills increased to dominate the industry. Big mills were

increasing while small mills were shutting down, indicating that large firms able to

capture the benefits of economies of scale were increasingly dominating the

lumber industry. This trend continues today.

Despite dramatic declines in the number of mills, overall mill capacity has

changed little (fig. 28). Total installed 8-hour capacity fluctuated over time but

remained relatively constant between 1970 and 2000 (WADNR 1970 to 2000). Size

A mills doubled their share of total capacity while size D mills share declined by a

factor of 8 since 1970, again reflecting the dominance of large sawmills. Thus, the

same amount of lumber was manufactured by fewer and larger firms, reflecting

improvements in technology and efficiency in Washington sawmills. Trends in

sawmilling indicate that changes in timber supply, technology, and product demand

mean fewer mills, more diversification, and more efficient use of labor and raw

material inputs.

Supply constraints provided opportunities for other supply regions to meet the

difference between U.S. domestic consumption and production and to meet raw

material requirements in the Pacific Rim. In addition, higher overseas prices and

fewer offerings helped competing suppliers gain market share as importers tried to

offset shrinking volumes available for export from PNW. The influence of imported wood products from Canada continued to be strongly felt, especially for

dimension lumber. Low-cost wood from Chile, New Zealand, and Russia appeared

on the global market.

The impact of harvest constraints is not temporary; it has forced long-term

industry structural adjustment. This should be viewed largely as a permanent

policy shift, if not a barometer for increasing environmental constraints on harvest.

The long-term effect on PNW regional competitiveness in wood product markets

remains a point of debate among stakeholders.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

50

Changes in Japan’s Demand

As previously noted, Japan has always been the dominant purchaser of PNW logs,

and the PNW log export market has been maintained over time owing to Japan’s

preference for high-quality wood. Changes in Japan’s economy and housing

industry have resulted in drastic changes in Japan’s demand for forest products.

Figure 27—Number of sawmills by mill size, Washington.

Figure 28—Installed 8-hour capacity of Washington sawmills.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1992 1996 1998 2000

Year

Number of mills

Class A

Class B

Class C

Class D

A = >120,000, B = 80,000 to 119,999, C = 40,000 to 79,999, D = <40,000 board feet capacity per 8-hour shift.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1992 1996 1998 2000

Year

Eight-hour shift capacity (thousand board feet)

Class A

Class B

Class C

Class D

A = >120,000, B = 80,000 to 119,999, C = 40,000 to 79,999, D = <40,000 board feet capacity per 8-hour shift.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

51

Specifically, the Asian economic collapse caused a dramatic decrease in Japan’s

log demand and increased price sensitivity in Japanese consumers. Changing

preferences in Japan’s housing and housing reforms undertaken by the Japanese

government have altered import product mix and rerouted trade flows.

Asian economic crisis—

The Asian Economic Collapse began on July 2, 1997, when Thailand floated its

currency, the baht. The devaluation of the Thai baht started a domino effect of

devaluations across Southeast Asia. Speculation spread across east Asia to Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, then to Singapore and Taiwan. What was first

viewed as a regional crisis became a global problem when currency speculators

attacked Hong Kong’s link with the U.S. dollar. After six major currencies in the

region were devalued by an average 40 percent, the Korean won could not maintain

its value and fell later that year. China was the only Asian economy to be relatively

unaffected by the crisis.

Currency devaluations led to bank failures and bankruptcies across Asia. Banks

borrowed abroad in foreign currency; bad loans were commonly made to finance

an asset price bubble in stock markets, land, and real estate. Because of expectations of a government bailout, banks borrowed too much from abroad and lent too

much for high-risk investment projects that were marginal if not outright unprofitable. When the asset bubble burst in 1997, the firms, banks, and investors that

borrowed these funds found themselves with a huge amount of foreign debt, mostly

in foreign currencies, that could not be repaid. As the economy slumped and

currencies tumbled, more and more governments sought relief through the International Monetary Fund.

Recession in Japan, the leading regional economic power, exacerbated poor

economic performance in the region. Japan’s economy stagnated throughout the

nineties; GDP growth averaged only 1 percent per year. In 1996, it appeared that an

economic recovery was returning in Japan; however, an increase in the consumption tax, bankruptcies, banking troubles, and a drop in consumer confidence spun

Japan into another recession. Economic weakness in Japan kept interest rates low,

resulting in a continued depreciation of the yen relative to the U.S. dollar from

1995 onward, impacting Japanese foreign trade. Japanese exports were hit especially hard because Japan exports more than one-third of its products to other Asian

nations.

In addition, Japanese banks had heavily lent to other troubled Asian economies.

Serious domestic weakness in the economy, including the collapse of land and

property prices, left Japanese banks burdened with an estimated outstanding
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

52

liability of 76 trillion yen ($530 billion) in bad debts (Roubini 2002). As banks

attempted to collect on these loans, borrowing firms began to fail. Between 1997

and 2001, the Asian financial crisis resulted in an estimated 20,050 bankruptcies in

banks and other large firms across Japan. By 2002, Japanese banks had yet to clear

the bad debt accrued during this period.

Declines in PNW log supply and Japan’s demand have triggered changes in

trade flows. Figure 29 again displays PNW log export volume and prices for all

species to Japan but focuses on only the period between 1990 and 2001. Note that

volume exported to Japan declined rapidly from 2,114 million board feet in 1990 to

642 million in 2001. Effects of PNW supply constraints are evident by rapidly

increasing prices and plunging exported log volume in 1991. Prices for export logs

peaked at a record $1,026 per thousand board feet in 1995; despite high prices,

Japanese importers were able to maintain a steady supply of PNW logs between

1993 and 1996. With the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis, Japan’s imports of

PNW logs plummeted, causing a related drop in log prices. Japanese importers

were unable to benefit from declining prices since demand collapsed in 1997.

The PNW mill and timber owners were severely impacted by the collapse. Log

exports that had already declined by 45 percent from 1989 to 1994, continued to

fall owing to reduced Japanese demand after economic collapse in Asia (Lippke

and Perez-Garcia 1998). Log and lumber shipments to Asia were drastically

reduced, and volumes were rerouted into the North American market. Domestic

mills struggled to adjust to an oversupply of wood; stumpage prices fell both for

export- and domestic-grade timber. Reduced Japanese demand also meant that most

U.S. timber producers no longer enjoyed an export price premium, which may

ultimately have repercussions for forest management.

Heightened price sensitivity—

The Asian downturn also impacted the buying behavior of Japanese consumers.

The Japanese became less likely to pay price premiums for building materials and

more likely to use price to evaluate products. Value-oriented behavior favors highquality, reasonably priced value-added products over commodities (Cunningham

and Eastin 2002).

Two other factors have influenced heightened price sensitivity in Japanese

consumers, a strong U.S. dollar and an increase in the Japanese consumption

tax rate. During the recession, the Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. and

Canadian dollar, effectively raising the price of U.S. wood products in Japan.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

53

In addition to the increased cost of imported materials, taxes on these items

were also increased, making imported building materials more expensive. It is no

coincidence that Japanese housing starts peaked in 1996; the Japanese enacted a

consumption tax rate increase in 1997. Consumers were motivated to build before

the tax increase became effective. Certainly this tax has impacted housing demand

in Japan and contributed to a new price consciousness on the part of consumers.

Thus, the legendary Japanese demand for quality at any price has been replaced

with price consciousness and value orientation, resulting in both substitution of

building materials and supply sources.

Changes in Japan’s housing industry—

Since 1997, Japan’s economic difficulties have devastated the country’s housing

industry. Thousands of contractors have gone out of business, and the number

of new housing starts, after peaking at 1.66 million units in 1996, declined to

1.17 million units in 2001. The decline in the number of housing starts was accompanied by a decline in Japan’s demand for imported wooden building materials,

which has adversely affected U.S. wood product exports. Exports of primary wood

products declined 53 percent and secondary wood products declined 46 percent

from 1996 to 1999 (Eastin et al. 2002).

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Log exports (billion board feet)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Price ($/thousand board feet)

Volume Price

Figure 29—Volume and nominal prices of PNW softwood log exports to Japan, 1990 to 2000.

)
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

54

Japan’s domestic wood processing industry has suffered along with its housing

industry. One long-term serious side effect of Japan’s current deflationary business

climate is relocation of domestic industry overseas. Manufacturing capacity for

both wood products and substitutes for wood products are moving, particularly

to China, signaling long-term changes to trade flows for both raw material and

finished products (Glass 2002). A decline in wood processing capacity implies

that Japan will substitute imports of lumber and other products for unprocessed

logs.

Although demand for new housing is constrained by macroeconomic factors

in any economy, declines in Japan’s housing demand will be maintained owing to

shifting demographics in Japanese society. A high proportion of Japan’s population

is beyond the highest years for forming households. Projections indicate Japan’s

population will begin to decline after 2010, resulting in declining demand for new

housing. Thus, Japanese housing starts are expected to remain flat and then begin

declining after 2010, leaving little hope for long-run recovery in their new housing

industry, although repairs and renovations are expected to remain strong.

In addition, the number of qualified Japanese carpenters is declining as fewer

young people enter the trade to replace retiring workers. Skills required for traditional labor-intensive customized construction techniques are becoming rare.

Traditionally, skilled carpenters cut all the joints and notches for the traditional

post and beam house at the job site. In response to this declining number of carpenters, Japanese builders are shifting to using precut post and beam housing kits.

These precut systems are cut to very exact dimensions; defects arising from green

lumber during the air drying process, such as warping and twisting, are unacceptable. Virtually all precut housing manufacturers use kiln-dried lumber to manufacture housing components.

Regulatory reform—

Traditionally, Japanese housing emphasized aesthetics over any other characteristic, including performance. Homes were not expected to last long with rebuilds

occurring every 20 to 30 years. Attitudes of Japanese homebuyers changed dramatically after the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Serious concerns about housing safety and

quality, including construction styles and materials, have had far-reaching effects

on Japan’s housing industry (UN ECE 2000).

Overwhelming consumer dissatisfaction with housing quality led the Japanese

government to enact two regulatory reform measures, the Building Standard Law

(BSL) and the Housing Quality Assurance Act (HQAC) (Eastin et al. 2002). The

BSL was revised in 1998 for the first time since 1950. The first revision requires
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

55

that all residential housing units receive an interim and final building inspection.

The second revision transformed the BSL from a specification-based building code

to a performance-based building code. Only building materials that meet the

performance standards are eligible for use in residential construction.

The HQAA was enacted to provide homebuyers with safeguards in resolving

disputes with building contractors. The HQAA has four objectives: to improve the

quality and performance of residential homes, provide homebuyers with a mechanism for resolving disputes with building contractors, establish a system of Housing Performance Indication Standards against which specific houses can be compared, and establish a housing completion guarantee system. One component of the

HQAA is the requirement that homebuilders in Japan provide a 10-year warranty

on all structural components of a newly constructed house. This focus on housing

quality and performance favors higher quality building materials utilizing kilndried lumber, durable species, and precut construction systems, resulting in greater

demand for engineered wood products (EWPs).

In addition, changes in Japan’s building codes allow foreign construction

methods and products to be used in Japanese construction. The new codes allow

the use of building materials that meet foreign standards, provided that products

have sufficient structural strength, are produced under strict quality control, and

are similar to existing Japanese products. Japan’s builders now have the freedom

to use a variety of imported building materials for construction applications. Consequently, the relaxation of regulations has boosted imports of processed wooden

building materials. Housing systems using these new building technologies and

materials incorporate EWPs like laminated beams (glulam) and laminated veneer

lumber (LVL). In 1989, there were 15 new construction systems recognized in

Japan and only one incorporated LVL or glulam. By 1998, 114 new systems were

recognized with 57 incorporating LVL and/or glulam (UN ECE 2000). Thus,

deregulation of Japan’s housing industry has increased the attractiveness and

reduced the cost of Western style construction techniques and materials and

dramatically increased Japan’s demand for EWPs.

Regulatory reforms in Japan’s housing industry have opened the door for more

extensive use of Western style construction materials and techniques. Use of Western style precut systems and 2 by 4 construction is growing because of lower cost,

superior seismic performance, and higher durability. In addition, Japanese builders

have successfully incorporated EWPs into traditional post and beam construction.

By 2000, the post and beam construction sector employed the most EWPs of the

Japanese residential sector. As much as 86 percent of the glulam imported into
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

56

Japan entered this housing subsector; Japanese builders use glulam posts and longspan beams in place of solid wood posts and beams to achieve greater dimensional

stability. Thus, the growth of EWPs in Japan results from direct substitution for

green lumber products as Japanese builders upgrade housing quality.

Changing product mix and rerouting trade flows—

Conventional wood products are losing appeal for many reasons, including decreasing quality and performance as younger and smaller trees are utilized, increasing costs, more demanding consumers, and tougher environmental regulations.

Japanese builder preference is clearly shifting from green lumber to dimensionally

stable kiln-dried lumber and from solid wood to EWPs for home construction.

Although Japan has invested in dry-kiln capacity, shortages in Japanese domestic

production will be met by imports.

Use of EWPs in Japan is forecast to grow as the residential construction

industry continues to adopt new products for traditional post and beam housing

and introduces Western style panelized and platform frame construction technologies. Japanese glulam imports from the world have increased (fig. 30). Although

the United States does export glulam into this market, building materials to meet

rising demand for EWPs in Japan are rapidly increasing from European sources.

In 1999, Austria became the dominant supplier of glulam to Japan, followed by

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Glulam imports (thousand cubic meters)

Figure 30—Japanese glulam imports.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

57

the United States and Sweden. Exports of European kiln-dried lamstock are forecast to dominate new market opportunities for EWPs in Japan.

In addition to having a comparative advantage in glulam production, the

Europeans gained market share owing to the relative value of U.S., Canadian,

Japanese, and European currencies. The strength of the U.S. dollar compared to

the weaker yen, Canadian dollar, and Euro reduced the competitiveness of U.S.

wood products in Japan. Since 1990, the strength of the U.S. dollar grew steadily,

reaching a high of 83.49 yen/U.S. dollar in 1995. By 1998, the yen had declined

by 42 percent to 144.68/ U.S. dollar. Exchange rates between the Canadian dollar

and the yen went from a high of 60.80 yen/Canadian dollar in 1995 to 95.7 yen/

Canadian dollar in 1998, a decline of 36 percent. From 1989 to 2000, the U.S.

share of Japan’s softwood lumber market declined from 48.2 percent to 5.6 percent

and the Canadian share decreased from 50.9 percent to 43.9 percent. During this

period, the European market share in Japan increased from 0 to 25.1 percent.

After its adoption as the official currency of the European Union (E.U.) in

1999, the Euro continued to depreciate relative to other major currencies, including the dollar, the yen, and the pound sterling. This increased the attractiveness of

European exports. In February 2002, the Euro had lost about 25 percent of its value

against the U.S. dollar since its launch. The Euro weakened considerably against

the yen during the first 2 years since its launch, by almost 30 percent, before

recovering some of the lost value in 2001. However, since January 2003, the Euro

has strengthened by about 16 percent against the U.S. dollar and reached a record

level of 1.16 Euro/U.S. dollar in May 2003. The rising strength of the Euro may

signal future trouble for European firms that export wood products.

Unlike other suppliers, the Europeans have demonstrated a willingness to

provide custom cutting in specific dimensions requested by Japanese customers. In

addition, there is a widespread perception in Japan that quality of European whitewood lamstock is superior to North American lumber. Thus, European exports of

softwood lumber and glulam to Japan have increased dramatically, largely at the

expense of U.S. and Canadian producers. American and Canadian suppliers have

been slow to recognize the shift in product demand in Japan; it will be difficult to

recapture market share lost to the Europeans.

The lumber market is a good example of changes in the Japanese market.

Increased international competition has resulted in a loss of U.S. market share

to Canada, European countries, and radiata-pine-producing countries like New

Zealand and Chile. Scandinavian precision-cut kiln-dried glulam lumber has
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

58

steadily increased market share, making Scandinavia the second largest supplier

of lumber at the expense of green lumber and U.S. lumber. Russian whitewood is

entering the market as currency-strapped Russia is looking for sources of revenue.

Radiata pine lacks the performance characteristics of Douglas-fir and the aesthetic

qualities of hemlock, yet it has gained an increased share of the Japanese lumber

market (Cunningham and Eastin 2002).

Although the majority of PNW firms engaged in exporting processed wood

products to Japan were adversely affected by the Japanese recession, some firms

were able to increase exports to Japan. Cunningham and Eastin (2002) investigated why some firms successfully increased exports during the Japanese economic downturn by using an analysis of marketing variables and demographic

characteristics to determine factors influencing export performance. Factors

associated with export success include shortened distribution channels by direct

shipping to Japanese homebuilders, overseas sales representation in Japan, and

product mixes focusing on secondary wood products, particularly prefabricated

housing components and value-added products like cabinets, flooring, stairs,

molding, and millwork. They conclude that if U.S. firms want to improve their

export competitiveness, a strong commitment to the export process and gaining

experience in Japanese markets are beneficial.

The Asian financial crisis, as well as new construction methods and materials,

changing consumer behavior, and new housing regulations in Japan have combined

to reduce the competitiveness of U.S. wood products in Japanese markets. In only

6 years, Japanese demand has evolved from PNW old-growth softwood logs to

European kiln-dried lumber.

Globalization of Wood Markets

In addition to economic and regulatory changes in Japan and supply constraints in

the PNW, changes in softwood log trade patterns between Japan and the PNW have

resulted from increased globalization of wood markets. Regions including Chile,

New Zealand, Russia, and Scandinavia represent new and potential areas of wood

supply to meet growing international demand for wood products. Extensive forest

plantations in Chile and New Zealand, combined with vast regions of natural

stands of softwood timber in Scandinavia and Russia, have resulted in excess

supply of wood in world markets. On the demand side, China is considered an

emerging market with enormous potential for forest product exports. Data for this

analysis are taken from statistics gathered from the United Nations Food and

Agricultural Organization Yearbook of Forest Products (FAO 1990 and 2000a).
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

59

Figure 31 displays the shift in major industrial roundwood suppliers to the

world. First, note only the U.S., Russia, and New Zealand exported significant

volumes of industrial roundwood in the 1990s. U.S. exports dominated this market

then declined rapidly after 1992. The expansion of Russian resources since the

dissolution of the U.S.S.R. in 1990 is remarkable. Russian exports, formerly

combined with other Soviet Union nations, began with 0 in 1990 to overtake the

United States as dominant producer by 1997. New Zealand’s exports doubled after

1990 and have remained relatively constant through the remainder of the decade.

Chile’s industrial roundwood exports remained flat from 1990 to 1997 but declined

to almost 0 in 1998 owing to capacity expansion for sawn wood production.

Canadian industrial roundwood exports have increased since 1998. Traditional

regulations restricting log exports from crown lands were eased under a relief

program for forest workers as a result of depressed economic conditions for lumber

products in Canada (USDA FAS 2001).

To contrast, figure 32 displays major softwood sawn wood exporters to the

world. Clearly, Canada dominates the sawn wood export market. Canadian lumber

exporters control over half of the total market share. Although Canada controls the

majority of the market, Scandinavian suppliers have made substantial inroads in the

global sawn wood market. Scandinavian market share has expanded every year

during the 1990s. Notable also is the expansion of Russian sawn wood exports

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Roundwood exports (million cubic meters)

Canada Chile Scandinavia Russian federation New Zealand USA

Figure 31—Leading industrial roundwood exporters to the world.

0
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

60

from 0 in 1990 to about one-tenth of global supply in 2000. Sawn wood exports

from Chile and New Zealand have remained relatively low over the decade, but the

Chileans were able to expand exports of sawn wood after 1998. Only the United

States has lost market share in the global sawn wood arena. The U.S. share of this

market has declined from about 12 percent of total global supply in 1990 to 4

percent in 2000, providing evidence against the argument that reducing log exports

stimulates increased lumber exports. A closer examination of the leading suppliers

in these two markets follows.

Chile and New Zealand—

Chile and New Zealand have many similarities. Unlike other countries supplying

timber to foreign markets, New Zealand and Chile export wood that largely originates from forest plantations. Both countries possess large areas of short-rotation

radiata pine plantations that are approaching maturity, and both have strong export

orientation. Unlike the situation in the tropics, North America, and Russia, there

are relatively few ecological constraints on harvesting. Industrial forests have been

planted specifically for sustained high management intensity.

Traditionally, the knotty nature and perceived lack of strength of radiata pine

meant it was designated for low-grade end uses. Radiata pine has traditionally been

used for structural applications and for the pulp and paper industries. Radiata pine

exports will provide low-cost alternative wood fiber to produce pulp, composite

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Sawn wood exports (million cubic meters)

Canada Chile Scandinavia Russian Federation New Zealand USA

Figure 32—Leading softwood sawn wood exporters to the world.

0
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

61

product substitutes, and structural lumber applications. With demand growing for

EWPs, radiata pine could overtake higher cost/higher quality timber in some

markets (Blandon 1999).

Chile has 15.6 million hectares of forest cover (about 20 percent of the

county’s total area), with native forests representing 85.9 percent (13.4 million

hectares) and plantation forests accounting for 13.5 percent (2.1 million hectares)

of the total. The majority of plantation resources in Chile are privately owned.

Since the Chileans began establishing large commercial plantations in the 1950s,

dependency on native forests has decreased dramatically.

Radiata pine has been the preferred plantation species in Chile primarily

owing to its fast growth rate and straight form. This species currently represents

over 75 percent of plantation area with inventories displaying a relatively balanced

age-class distribution and an average rotation age of 25 years. Based on established

plantation inventories, age classes, and annual increments, radiata pine timber production is forecast to increase substantially from an annual harvest of 18.8 million

cubic meters in 2002 to an estimated harvest of 36.9 million cubic meters in 2018.

In 2001, 41 percent of harvest was processed into sawn wood, 31 percent into pulp,

and the balance exported in log form or used for structural and nonstructural panels

(UN ECE 2002).

The growth of Chile’s forest industry over the past three decades has depended

on the development of international markets. Since 1990, the value of forest product exports has more than doubled, reaching $2,200 million in 2001, representing

13 percent of the country’s total exports. Approximately 75 percent of the production of primary (pulp, paper, panels, and sawn wood) and secondary products

(EWPs, doors, windows, interior finish items and furniture and furniture components) is exported.

The United States remains the principal destination for Chile’s wood exports,

accounting in 2001 for 23 percent of the value of total wood product exports, Japan

and China with 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively. However, the types of

forest products imported by these three countries are dramatically different. The

United States imports primarily value-added radiata pine wood products, such as

moldings, planed wood, and doors and doorframes. The principal product exported

to Japan is eucalyptus wood chips, whereas China imports primarily softwood

pulp. Over the last decade, the value of Chilean wood products exports has more

than doubled, mainly resulting from a dramatic increase in the value of furtherprocessed wood products exports.

Three important trends have emerged in the Chilean forest products industry.

First, the degree of vertical integration is high, with supply chains managed from
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

62

resource to international markets, including nursery operations, harvesting, log

merchandizing, sawmilling, value-added manufacturing, marketing, and sales.

Second, there has been a large investment in technology in all aspects of their

operations, substituting capital for increasing labor costs. The third trend is the

investment that Chilean forest companies have made in other Latin American

countries, opening more direct markets for their products.

New Zealand is moderately forested with more than 29 percent forest cover. By

1995, New Zealand had about 1.5 million hectares of plantations established, with

radiata pine representing 91 percent of plantation area. New Zealand has a relatively balanced age-class distribution, with a predominance of areas under 35 years

old and an average rotation age of 25 years (FAO 2000b). Short-term volume

available for harvests, defined as volume above rotation age, is estimated at 88 000

to 140 000 cubic meters. Industrial roundwood production was estimated at 16 400

cubic meters in 1997 of which 20 percent was pulpwood (FAO 2000a). New

Zealand became a competitor in the “construction grade” log export market when

its extensive plantations of radiata pine entered trade channels in 1995 (Vlosky

1985).

With these trends expected to continue, Chile and New Zealand will continue

to gain in importance as world wood products suppliers, contributing to the global

trend of an increased reliance on Southern Hemisphere plantations (FAO 2000b).

Russia—

The Russian Republic includes some 771 million hectares of forest spread across

the entire national landscape. This is more than one-fifth of the world’s total area

of forest and other wooded land. Two-thirds of the forest is available for wood

supply, the remainder being unavailable because of economic and accessibility

constraints. Although Russia’s forests contain an estimated 82 billion cubic meters

of growing stock, only about 55 billion cubic meters are considered accessible (67

percent). More than nine-tenths of Russian forest land is classified as undisturbed

by man and therefore mature or overmature, with some additional areas of seminatural forest and a smaller area of plantations. Forest land remains predominantly

in public ownership, but efforts to privatize some forests are underway (Gataulina

and Waggener 1997).

The forestry sector in Russia, particularly the East Siberia and Far East Regions, has substantial potential for development. The eastern Russian regions

contain some 438 million hectares of forests and account for approximately 67

percent of Russian federation forest land. The combined two-region inventory for

conifer species is 42.5 billion cubic meters, or almost 71 percent of the Russian
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

63

total. Although approximately 43 percent of Far East inventory and 41 percent of

East Siberian inventory are presently inaccessible, this sparsely developed forest

region has the greatest potential to affect global timber supply (Backman and

Waggener 1996).

The Russian federation is one of the largest producers and exporters of industrial roundwood in the world (fig. 31). Softwood logs have dominated this trade.

Almost all of Russia’s exports of unprocessed logs originate in Far East Russia and

East Siberia and end up in Pacific Rim markets including Japan, South Korea, and

China. In addition to the official trade, there is undocumented barter trade, particularly in the border region between the Russian Far East and northeast China. Trade

relations between Russia and its partners have in part been determined by political

relationships and partly by economic realities including the need to earn foreign

exchange. Although traditional trade was conducted with former planned economies, the dynamics of political and economic change have opened relations with

Western Europe and the Pacific Rim, and exports have strengthened overall Russian federation trade balances.

Expansion of eastern Russian exports into processed product markets is constrained by several factors. Utilization of existing supplies of timber from Russia is

currently limited by poor accessibility and forest quality. Major portions of mature

forests are inaccessible owing to limited railroad and highway infrastructure into

remote areas of the Russian Far East. Overall investments in infrastructure will be

required to make the harvesting and processing of timber viable. In addition, the

Russian Far East has the highest proportion of low-quality sites and one of the

lowest proportions of fully stocked stands of any region of the former Soviet

Union. High-grading of timber stands for saw logs has deteriorated forest stocks,

resulting in relatively poor-quality forests. Also, many Russians appear to believe

that preventing further forest degradation is essential; increasing environmental

concerns are likely to limit timber output from the region and reduce overall

harvest potential (Cardellichio et al. 1989).

In addition to harvesting limitations, capacity limitations are a barrier to

Russian entry into processed markets. The overwhelming share of the Russian

forest products industry is located in the European-west Siberian region, with

substantially less industry in the timber-rich eastern Russian regions. Substantial

domestic and international capital investment will be required to transform the

existing deteriorating industry capacity to standards of technology and product

quality to become truly competitive in international markets. Joint ventures have

traditionally been linked to the export of raw materials. Investment in direct forest

sector operations and processing are much more limited and await more favorable
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

64

economic investment conditions. Present political and economic conditions are not

yet conducive to large-scale foreign participation in processing sector development.

Investment in Russia is still associated with high risk to firms; as conditions

stabilize, investment should gradually increase. Until the existing sawmill sector in

East Siberia and the Far East is upgraded, the ability to compete in lumber markets

will be hindered, and Russia will continue to export primarily unprocessed logs

(Blandon 1999).

With Russian economic improvement, domestic demand for forest products

will grow within Russia. Rising domestic consumption interacting with physical

limitations of the Russian forest resource may limit the contribution that Russia can

make to global consumption in regions outside Russia, including the Pacific Rim,

Western Europe, and possibly the United States. However, while eastern Russian

forests should find growing domestic demand, exports of timber and wood products in the near term will remain attractive as domestic prices adjust to international levels. Retention of foreign earnings will be required to provide the base

capital investments to modernize and upgrade capacity. Exports are projected to

remain strong because the Russian need for foreign exchange will outweigh

domestic consumption.

Russian economic stabilization has facilitated growth of industrial output in the

forest and forest products sector. Between 1999 and 2000, exports of roundwood

increased by 111.6 percent to 30.8 million cubic meters. Of this total, 29 percent of

exports were composed of softwood logs. The main countries importing Russian

roundwood are Finland and Japan, whose combined share of total Russian roundwood exports is over 50 percent. The major share of roundwood export to Finland

is pulpwood and saw logs to Japan.

Scandinavia—

The flow of lumber from Scandinavia to Western Europe has historically been the

third main trade flow of wood products in the world. Finland and Sweden are the

main timber producing countries in Scandinavia. Sweden and Finland’s relatively

small population has limited domestic consumption of wood products with excess

production channeled into export markets. Approximately two-thirds of the volume

of sawn wood produced in Sweden and Finland is exported. Changes in market

demand and restructuring resulted in expansion of Scandinavian exports to areas

traditionally served by the United States and Canada.

Finland and Sweden are in the boreal coniferous forest zone, one of the richest

regions of coniferous timber in the world. About 80 percent of Swedish forests and

94 percent of Finnish forests are included in this 900 million hectare region that
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

65

stretches from the Russian Far East to Norway. Scandinavian forests are primarily

dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norwegian spruce (Picea abies

(L.) Karst.).

Together, Sweden and Finland contain approximately 49.2 million hectares

of forest land, or 62 percent of the two countries’ land area. Approximately 41.9

million hectares are considered forest available for wood supply. Although this is

considered only a small portion of the world’s forest area (2 percent), the region’s

plentiful supply of slow-growing, high-quality timber has made Finland and

Sweden 2 of the 10 leading sources of sawn softwood products internationally (UN

ECE and FAO 2000).

Lumber producers in Scandinavia have enjoyed a competitive environment

allowing them to steadily increase volume of lumber production. Domestic timber

resources are plentiful and far more abundant than the forest resources of neighboring regions. This comparatively abundant supply is located in proximity to lucrative European markets. In addition, government programs to ensure sustainable

resources and recent corporate mergers have made the two countries home to some

of the largest forest products manufacturing firms in Western Europe. From 1991

to 1999, this combination of factors has allowed Finland’s sawn wood production

to increase 92 percent to almost 13 million cubic meters with production projected

to increase through 2005 (Bomersheim 1999, METLA 2000). Sweden’s production increased 30 percent in the same period, peaking in 1997 and then declining

to 14.6 million cubic meters by 1999 (National Board of Forestry 2000).

As one of the leading wood-consuming regions in the world, Western Europe

has traditionally been the most important end market for Scandinavian suppliers.

In the past, Scandinavian suppliers have experienced little competition in the

European market for sawn wood. Suppliers from the United States and Canada

focused primarily on the growing U.S. housing market; Russian suppliers lacked

the infrastructure to harvest and export substantial volumes of forest products. The

leading end markets for Scandinavian sawn wood exports within Europe have been

Germany, Denmark, and the United Kingdom. The abundance of high-quality

clearwood in Sweden and Finland and proximity to major European markets led to

the region’s rise as a leading global timber supplier.

Despite the domination of Scandinavian forest products firms in the European

market, the economy in Western Europe has been uneven, and prices for sawn

wood are substantially lower than in previous years (USDA FAS 2001). Declining

overall demand, coupled with increasing competition from lower cost Eastern

European suppliers, has made it increasingly tenuous for Scandinavian forest

products firms depending on the European market for their survival. In addition,
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

66

oversupply of roundwood entering the European market as a result of nearly 200

million cubic meters of windthrow from 1999 storms led to accelerated roundwood

production and trade and lowered prices throughout Europe in 2000. More recently,

wooden building materials have encountered increasing competition from nonwood

substitutes, such as steel-frame housing, concrete, and plastics. Scandinavian

industry has seen several firms file for bankruptcy and the related production

capacity decline. These factors have made it more important for Scandinavian

suppliers to diversify into new non-European markets and differentiate their

products.

Recent years have shown a dramatic increase of Japanese sawn wood imports

from Scandinavia. Beneficial exchange rates, rising North American lumber prices

coupled with declining production, willingness to tailor products to meet customer

requirements, and commitment to quality control and price advantage are a few of

the factors that have contributed to Scandinavian supplier success in Japan. When

U.S. export lumber prices spiked from 1992 through 1993, spurred partly by

domestic harvest restrictions, Japanese consumers sought lower priced substitutes,

which they found from Scandinavian suppliers. The weak Euro combined with the

Japanese desire for high-quality kiln-dried lumber and EWPs allowed Sweden and

Finland to increase lumber exports to Japan by 235 and 267 percent, respectively,

between 1994 and 2000.

In 1990, imports from Sweden and Finland to Japan were almost nonexistent,

yet by 2000, the two Scandinavian producers together supplied 14 percent of

Japan’s imported softwood lumber. In the same period, U.S. share of the Japanese

market declined by 24 percent after U.S. export volume to Japan declined 73

percent, down to 1.7 million cubic meters. Following a slump in 1998 attributed to

the Asian financial crisis, Finland and Sweden exported almost 1.5 million cubic

meters of softwood lumber to Japan in 2000 (UN ECE 2000). Gains that Scandinavian suppliers have won in Japanese markets highlight a growing ability to compete

in traditional U.S. markets.

Rising demand for wood products within the United States has also attracted

Scandinavian suppliers. Swedish and Finnish firms are reportedly keenly interested

in gaining access into the strong domestic U.S. softwood lumber market. In 1999,

Sweden exported 120 000 cubic meters to the United States, second only to Austria

(220 000 cubic meters) as dominant European supplier in this market. By 2002,

there were 15 European mills, 8 of which are Swedish, certified to grade dimensional lumber to meet U.S. standards (UN ECE 2000). Certification of offshore

mills means that European suppliers can directly compete in U.S. commodity

markets for lumber.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

67

Sweden and Finland remain the two highest volume exporters of sawn softwood in Europe, with 2001 export levels of 10.8 and 8.1 million cubic meters,

respectively. Although the major export destinations of Scandinavian softwood

lumber continue to be within Europe, exports to Central Europe and the United

Kingdom have stagnated as competition from other European and Russian producers continues to gain momentum. The emerging expansion of Scandinavian softwood market share into offshore markets like Japan and the United States continues to make great strides. In 2001, Scandinavian countries exported 420 000 and

1.6 million cubic meters to the United States and Japan, respectively (UN ECE

2002).

China—

With economic reforms and rising domestic consumption, China has received

considerable attention as an emerging market for forest products. Value of solid

wood product imports, including logs, lumber, panel products, and secondary

processed products, from sources worldwide has increased dramatically (fig. 33).

Redirection of trade flows to service the growing Chinese economy is underway,

with suppliers fiercely competing to acquire a market advantage.

Several demand factors are driving Chinese imports. To get a hint at the

potential magnitude of this market, consider that China’s population is one of the

largest in the world with 1.3 billion people. By slowly opening markets, China has

experienced GDP increases averaging 9 percent per year over the past decade. The

Affordable Housing project, a series of housing reforms initiated by the Chinese

government in 1993, generated an increase in construction activity, stimulating

demand for wood products. In addition, the Chinese government is slowly removing barriers to trade by lowering tariffs on many imports, including forest products.

Thus, economic reform programs are slowly increasing the Chinese standard of

living and opening markets.

China’s domestic timber production is constrained by limited available forest

areas and increased forest protection concerns. Although limited information

makes it difficult to evaluate the success of Chinese plantations, Perez-Garcia and

Marshall (2002) projected wood fiber production from Chinese plantations assuming two growth rates (1 and 10 cubic meters per hectare per year) and rotation ages

(30 and 55 years) to determine the potential range of inventory distribution. Under

these two assumptions, the plantation inventory resource in China ranges from

75 million to over 400 million cubic meters per hectare. Regardless of the expected

future yields of these plantations, they are too young to provide a significant source
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

68

of timber volume to meet growing Chinese demand in the near term (Perez-Garcia

and Marshall 2002).

Domestic harvest is also limited by a logging ban in remaining natural forests

instituted in 1998. Increased forest protection became a major concern when

serious flooding from summer storms was linked to deforestation. Reduced harvesting in existing natural stands, combined with an immature domestic plantation

resource, ensures that China will remain a net importer of forest products. Over the

longer term, plantation and non-plantation wood from international suppliers

ultimately must compete with plantations in China as they mature.

Although rising consumption and limited Chinese domestic timber production

heralds greater demand for imports, emphasis has changed from unprocessed to

processed wood products. Softwood logs used in domestic processing were the

leading wood product import until they peaked in 1988. Since then, China’s wood

product import mix has changed; inadequate investment in domestic mill capacity

and infrastructure limit the ability of Chinese producers to meet expanded need for

processed wood products to serve China’s growing economy. Softwood log imports

have drastically declined; Chinese importers have switched focus from raw logs to

primary and secondary processed products. Although the total value of Chinese

forest product imports from the world more than doubled between 1995 and 2000,

imports of unprocessed forest products remained constant at about $1 billion. The

remaining increases in import value evident in figure 33 reflect increases in imports

of lumber, panel products, and secondary manufactured products.

Figure 33—Value of Chinese solid wood product imports from the world.

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Import value (billion U.S. dollars)

0
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

69

The net export value of solid wood products between the United States and

China is presented in figure 34. Net exports, defined as value of exports minus

value of imports, is a measure of trade balance between two countries. For softwood logs, softwood lumber, and panel products, the U.S. has maintained a trade

surplus with China, meaning that U.S. exports of these products to China are

greater than imports from China. While softwood logs dominated this trade between 1995 and 1998, the increasing softwood lumber trade surplus with China

beginning in 2001 is noteworthy. Net export value of panel products, consisting

of softwood plywood, particleboard, fiberboard, and hardboard, remains relatively

flat.

On the other hand, the U.S. has a striking trade deficit in secondary processed

products with China; U.S. exports of these materials to China are dwarfed by U.S.

imports from China. Between 1998 and 2003, this trade deficit skyrocketed from

6.6 million to 67.5 million nominal U.S. dollars (U.S. Department of Commerce

1989-2003a and 1989-2003b). Although the U.S. has made strides in accessing

Chinese markets for softwood lumber, these achievements are overshadowed by

gains that secondary processed products from China have made into U.S. markets.

Thus, although China’s imports of primary and secondary wood products from the

world has increased, these trade statistics highlight the profound impact that China

has made in U.S. markets in only 5 years.

Pacific Northwest Trade Outlook and Implications for

Market Participants

Reduction in federal harvests and environmental regulation on state and private

forest lands decreased the volume of PNW logs available to the export market

raised costs of forest management throughout the region. Changes in Japan indicate

that Asian economic recovery is unlikely to resurrect Japanese demand for PNW

logs. Globalization of wood markets has introduced a myriad of international

producers in direct competition with PNW producers in both emerging and traditional markets.

Although the intent of this publication is to chronicle the rise and fall of the

PNW softwood log export market, rather than to forecast trends in the PNW wood

products industry, factors contributing to the loss of log export markets have

enduring implications for U.S. trade and PNW market participants. These implications, while somewhat speculative, are worth noting to emphasize the current

climate of uncertainty surrounding PNW forest management.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

70

Trade Outlook

The United States is no longer a low-cost supplier of logs to the world; globalization of wood markets has resulted in low-cost competition from other supply

regions. Focus of timber supply is shifting from traditional suppliers from the

temperate region (United States, Canada, and Scandinavia) to Southern Hemisphere plantations. Secondary processed wood products trade is growing faster

than trade in primary products as major producers seek to maximize value-added

processing and minimize exports of primary products. Trade policies prohibiting

green lumber imports are increasing as trading nations attempt to prevent the

introduction of destructive foreign insects and diseases.

Poor economic conditions in much of the world, currency exchange rates, and

the expiration of the Canadian Softwood Lumber Agreement made the U.S. a major

target market for worldwide softwood lumber producers by the mid-nineties. By

2003, 91 percent of total U.S. softwood lumber imports originated in Canada.

Increased lumber imports from other countries, particularly from Canada, have

driven down domestic lumber prices. Consequent low lumber prices triggered a

decline in production and investment in capacity throughout the United States.

The U.S. consumption of wood products is projected to increase. Despite

projections that price growth will improve the profitability of wood products and

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year

Net export value (million U.S. dollars)

Softwood logs Softwood lumber Panel Secondary

Figure 34—Value of solid wood product trade balance between China and the United States.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

71

provide the impetus to expand U.S. domestic capacity over the next five decades,

U.S. producers will remain unable to meet domestic demand for softwood lumber

consumption (Haynes 2003a). This shortfall is expected to continue to be met by

Canadian producers in the near term. However, imports from non-Canadian sources

are projected to account for the bulk of import growth after 2010.

The outlook for wood products trade in the United States is thus influenced by

a variety of factors including (Eastin et al. 2002, Haynes 2003a):

• Increased U.S. domestic consumption of forest products.

• Increased constraints on wood supply to meet environmental objectives.

• Increased softwood lumber imports to make up for the shortfall in domestic

supply.

• Increased price competition from softwood suppliers in Canada, Scandinavia,

New Zealand, and Chile in export markets traditionally served by the United

States.

• Expanded production and use of EWPs.

• Value of the U.S. dollar relative to trading partners’ currencies.

• Weakened demand from traditional U.S. export markets in Japan.

• Continued economy stagnation and demographic changes in Japan.

• Depressed domestic production of lumber and other processed wood products

in Japan in favor of imports.

• Unprecedented economic expansion in China.

• Weak domestic demand in Europe.

• Increased globalization as companies seek timber resources abroad and merge

to compete internationally.

• Use of trade policies to reduce the flow of softwood lumber imports from

Canada.

• Declining Canadian exports to Japan and Europe.

• Increased restriction on imports of green softwood lumber worldwide due to

forest health concerns.

• Increased investment in kiln drying capacity to compete in traditional markets.

• Increased willingness to accommodate products to customer specifications,

e.g., kiln-drying, use of metric measurements, and product packaging.

Of course, all this should be evaluated in a global context—there are many

suppliers vying to service emerging global economies. Economic growth and

reforms may open new markets for U.S. wood products, but only if the United

States can develop a cost advantage over competing suppliers.
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

72

PNW Industry Participants

Private timber owners have been negatively affected by the collapse of the log

export market. Timber management strategies that emphasize producing large highquality logs will no longer capture a price premium at the time of harvest. Timber

owners currently holding these high-quality stands of mature timber are faced with

disappointing prices in domestic markets where quality is not valued. However,

price premiums do exist if a landowner is willing to commit to providing materials

for niche markets (Eastin et al. 2003). These market changes are considered

permanent; there are no indications that forestry in the PNW will ever return to

conditions before the northern spotted owl controversy. Other implications for

private timber owners include:

• Loss of log export markets and log export premiums.

• Reduced stumpage prices.

• Disincentive for intensive forest management, such as thinning operations.

• Reduced forest land prices.

• Shorter rotations.

• Pressure to reduce costs to compete in commodity markets.

• Conversion to alternative land uses as forest management becomes less

profitable.

• Plantation sources dominating supply.

Mill owners must compete in a commodity product market; individual firms

have little market power and little influence on market prices. With the decline in

domestic lumber prices, mill owners must concentrate on boosting production and

reducing costs to remain competitive with other supply regions. Potential exists for

increased efficiency of existing domestic processing capacity to reduce imports and

increase exports of secondary processed materials. Firms wanting to remain competitive in the long term must make investments in capacity to expand the domestic

industry and fend off lower priced imports, but depressed prices create uncertainty

as to whether the cash returns necessary to make capital investments will materialize. Other considerations for mill owners are:

• Strong domestic markets led by continued growth in repair and remodel and

nonresidential construction.

• U.S. production absorbed by domestic markets.

• Investment in capacity near major transportation networks.

• Potential profits from investment in kiln drying capacity.
The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market

73

• Expanded markets for EWPs.

• Continued industrial consolidation in the U.S. forest products processing

sector.

• Increased demand for secondary processed products at the expense of primary

processed products.

• Emphasis on providing custom sizes to meet the needs of customers.

• More emphasis on price in commodity markets.

• Increasing percentage of total U.S. lumber production from the U.S. South.

• Persistent competition from Canada and other global supply sources.

Consumers may benefit because lower prices for log inputs for domestic

lumber production may translate to lower product prices. However, logs are but one

input in the lumber production process. Prices of other inputs, such as energy and

labor, may have a confounding effect on lumber output price. Thus, effects on

consumers are uncertain, as changes in housing and wood product prices resulting

from reduced stumpage and log prices may be negligible.

Communities in timber-dependent areas also face an uncertain future. Undeniably, forest products sector employment in the Pacific Northwest has declined.

However, with more logs remaining in-country for processing, employment in

wood product manufacturing could increase after industry structural adjustments

are complete. On the other hand, pressure from globalization and increasing

transportation costs may direct capacity expansion away from remote, rural locations with forest-dependent communities. Policies to encourage tourism, recreation,

and attract retirees, as well as efforts to diversify employment opportunities are

likely to benefit such areas in the long run (Daniels 2004).

Metric Equivalents

When you know: Multiply by: To get:

Kilometers .6215 Miles

Meters 3.28 Feet

Hectares 2.47 Acres

Cubic meters 35.3 Cubic feet
GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-624

74

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