Crime Trends

2017 National Crime Victims’ Rights Week: Crime and Victimization Fact Sheets

Criminal victimization trends provide useful insights by positioning annual data within a broader context. To estimate 

these trends, researchers rely on two national sources of crime data: the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform 

Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’s National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Both 

the UCR and the NCVS have been collected for decades. While their methodologies and findings differ slightly, each 

resource provides critical information necessary to understand crime and victimization in the United States. For more 

information, see the Crime and Victimization in the United States fact sheet in this series.

Without a longer trajectory, year-to-year changes in data seem like emerging trends. For example, violent crime is 86%

higher today than in 1965; however, it is also 50% lower than in 1991.B The rate of property crime follows a similar trend: 

today’s rate is 11% higher compared to the rate in 1965, but has fallen by more than 50% when compared to 1991.B Changes 

in criminal victimization are always evaluated within the context of time, and changing that context—selecting a different 

subset of years—influences whether criminal victimization appears to be increasing or decreasing. 

While the rate of criminal victimization has decreased dramatically over the past 50 years, many in the general public 

believe crime rates have increased. According to Gallup polls conducted since the mid-to-late 1990s, more than half of 

Americans have consistently reported that they believe there is more crime in the United States today than there was a year 

ago.A This misconception among the general public can be attributed to a variety of factors, but importantly, it demonstrates 

the necessity of tracking trends. Trends on crime and victimization provide researchers, victim service providers, policymakers, 

and the public with the information they need to accurately interpret, understand, and act on criminal victimization. 

Violent CrimeB

rate per 1,000 people

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Violent Crime 

(Rate per 1,000 Individuals)

Violent Crime Rate per 1,000 Violent Crime Rate per 1,000

2.0

3.7

6.8

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Property Crime 

(Rate Per 1,000 Individuals)

Property CrimeB

rate per 1,000 people

22.5

45.9

24.9

Victimization Reported to Law EnforcementC

Serious violent crime Violent crime

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

75%

49.9

40.9

32.1

59.0

45.8

38.7

54.9

46.5

34.6

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

% victimization reported to police

Violent Serious PropertyProperty crime

Did You Know?

The NCVS asks participants if they 

reported crime incidents to police:

In 2015, an estimated 55% of serious 

violent victimizations were reported 

to the authorities, compared to 47% 

of all violent victimizations and 

35% of all property victimizations. 

Since 1993, there has been no real 

change in crimes reported to law 

enforcement.B
SOURCES

A Justin McCarthy, “More Americans Say Crime Is Rising in U.S.,” (Gallup Poll, 

2014), http://www.gallup.com/poll/186308/americans-say-crime-rising.

aspx

B FBI, Crime in the United States, 1995 - 2015, (U.S. Department of Justice), 

https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/RunCrimeStatebyState.

cfm; Table 1, https://ucr.fbi.gov/ucr-publications

C Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, Concatenated File, 1992-2014, (U.S. Department of Justice) 

The Uniform Crime Reports for 2015 show an increase 

in serious violent crimes compared to 2014. Aggravated 

assault, murder, and forcible rape rose by 5%, 11%, and 6%, 

respectively. Robbery increased by less 

than 1%.B

Compared to the UCR, the NCVS did not report a similar 

increase in serious violent victimization between 2014 

and 2015. Aggravated assault and robbery declined by an 

estimated 25% and 13%, respectively. Rape/sexual assault, 

though, increased by an estimated 52%.C

The UCR and the NCVS both report a downward trend in property crime. However, the NCVS consistently reports higher 

levels of larceny-theft, burglary, and motor vehicle theft—which highlights an important distinction between the UCR 

and the NCVS: the UCR aggregates property victimizations reported by individuals, while the NCVS collects information 

on property from a representative sample of U.S. households. As a result, the two figures cannot be compared directly. 

Furthermore, because the UCR is measured by the number of incidents reported to law enforcement, it also includes property 

victimizations occurring at commercial businesses. 

UCR vs. NCVS Crime Victimization Trends

UCR Violent CrimeB

rate per 1,000 people

Aggravated assault

Robbery

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

5

4.2

2.2

0.4

0.1 0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

UCR Violent Crime

(Rate Per 1,000 Individuals) 

Forcible Rape Robbery Agg. Assault Murder Forcible rape

Murder

2.9

1.4

0.3

0.06

2.4

1.0

0.5

0.05

NCVS Violent CrimeC

rate per 1,000 people

Aggravated assault

Robbery

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

15

13.5

6.3

2.6

Rape/Sexual assault

5.2

3.1

0.1

3.0

2.1

1.6

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

NCVS Violent Crime

(Rate Per 1,000 Individuals)

Rape/Sexual Assault Robbery Agg. Assault

Larceny-theft

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

35

30.4

9.9

5.6

Motor vehicle theft

0

7

14

21

28

35

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

UCR Property Crime

Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft

22.9

7.3

4.2

17.8

4.9

2.2

Burglary

UCR Property CrimeB

rate per 1,000 people

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

300

0

60

120

180

240

300

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

NCVS Property Crime

Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft

243.9

54.4

17.1

120.3

30.6

8.6

84.4

22.0

4.3

NCVS Property CrimeC

rate per 1,000 households

Larceny-theft

Motor vehicle theft

Burglary