### From: Ryan Ruikka [mailto:ryan@prxgeo.com]

Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2015 3:22 PM To: Korotney, David Subject: EPA Docket



### Here is the email I sent you earlier, without the large powerpoint file attached. Hopefully this works.

David,
I’ve been working on comparing EIA and EPA EMTS data for over a year and a half now in order to build a Biomass

- based diesel monthly publication for The ProExporter Network . We’re an economic research and analysis team that provides information to the commercial sector, we do not lobby and have no commercial interests as both ethanol and oil & gas companies are our clients. I've had quite a difficult time piecing all of the data together and can only imagine how hard these rules must be to make. I believe I've found some errors in your or EPA’s calculations in the latest NPRM that I would like to point out to you and discuss some things I still do not understand.
I recently just got home from DC as I was attending the EIA’s 2015 Annu al Energy Conference and got to meet and speak with both Sean Hill and Tancred Lidderdale from EIA about EIA ethanol export data. They both confirmed that EIA export data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and it contains a mix of denatured and undenatured both for fuel and not for fuel use data. So if you or EPA are still planning to use EIA ethanol export data in the final rule, shouldn’t it only be denatured for fuel use data because only denatured ethanol can generate a RIN? I believe this is the largest reason for the D6 RIN price slide following the proposed rule because the market expected a higher conventional biofuel demand.

### From: Ryan Ruikka [mailto:ryan@prxgeo.com]

Sent: Friday, July 24, 2015 8:06 AM To: Korotney, David Subject: Re: EPA Docket



### David,

Sorry for the delay in getting you this report and nice talking to you on the phone last week. Here is my monthly biomass

- based diesel report I have made using mainly EIA and EPA data.

# Copyrighted page(s) removed. Copyrighted material is not available in Regulations.gov since it may not be reproduced without consent of the copyright holder.
Removed pages can be viewed at the USEPA Docket Center, Public Reading Room.

Address: 1301 Constitution Ave, NW Room 3334 Washington, DC 20004

Telephone: 202-566-1744

Email: docket-customerservice@epa.gov0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Million Gallons 

# US BIOMASS-BASED DIESEL MONTHLY IMPORTS

Data Source: EIA MER & PSM and EPA EMTS
Finland (PSM: ORD) Singapore (PSM: ORD) Indonesia (PSM: BBD) Argentina (PSM: BBD) Canada (PSM: BBD) Biodiesel (MER) Biodiesel & Renewable Diesel (PRX calc & forecast) Biodiesel & Renewable Diesel (PRX calc: EPA D4+D6) Biodiesel & Renewable Diesel (EPA D4+D6 using EPA Docket 2013 & 2014 RIN Supply) 

### Neste Oil taking advantage of expiring $1/gal Blender's Tax Credit, D6 RINs, & California LCFS Carbon Credits

EU anti-dumping duty imposed on Argentinean & Indonesian exporters resulted in increasing US imports

Notes: Biomass-Based Diesel (BBD) Fuel is defined in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) as "Biodiesel and other renewable diesel fuel or diesel fuel blending components derived from biomass, but excluding renewable diesel fuel coprocessed with petroleum. Other Renewable Diesel (ORD) is from Neste Oil refineries in Finland & Singapore. Monthly Energy Review (MER) & PRX calc = PSM: BBD + PSM: ORD. 

### 2015 YTD data: Singapore sent over 11.17 mil gals of renewable diesel in April, while Argentina sent nearly 5.63 mil gals of biodiesel Forecasts in lighter shades

### Fuel Use (2207200010) Non-Fuel Use (2207200090) Fuel Use (2207106010) Non-Fuel Use (2207106090) 2010 398.496 396.881 2011 1195.194 1193.181 2012 741.552 440.555 105.462 164.354 29.192 739.563 2013 618.954 414.947 6.932 190.733 7.351 619.962 2014 847.350 453.102 12.463 357.613 12.768 835.945

Year Million RINs 2010 99.075 2011 327.447 2012 170.606 2013 162.069 2014 235.965 Note: EIA definition of “Fuel Ethanol - An anhydrous denatured aliphatic alcohol intended for gasoline blending as described in Oxygenates definition.” "The U.S. Bureau of the Census compiles the official U.S. export statistics. Exporters are required to file a “Shipper’s Export Declaration Document” with the U.S. Census Bureau. Each month the EIA receives aggregated export statistics

from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (EM-522 and EM-594). Census export statistics used in the PSM reflect both government and non-governmental exports of domestic and foreign merchandise

from the United States (the 50 States and the District of Columbia) to foreign countries and U.S. possessions, without regard to whether or not the exportation involves a commercial transaction" (PSM Explanatory Notes, pg. 131).

D6 RIN Exports of Renewable Fuel as per 40 CFR 80.1429(b)(4) EPA EMTS Data as of May 11, 2015



### Note: All D6 RINs separated for export are believed to be D6 Non-cellulosic Ethanol(EV 1.0) RINs, but they could be also include D6 Biodiesel (EV 1.5) and/or D6 Nonester Renewable Diesel (EV 1.7) RINs. Also note that there could be a time lag in the RIN separation data due to compliance deadline extensions Undenatured (2207106000) EIA PSM Year

269.673 909.668 127.208 283.513 

# Ethanol Exports (Million Gallons) DOC U.S. Census Foreign Trade Data

Total Denatured (2207200000)2014 RIN supply (million RINs)

RINs Volume

Generated Generated Generated

D code Fuel type Domestic Imported Domestic + imports Corrections Exported Total Domestic Imported Domestic + imports Corrections Exported Total

3 & 7 Biogas 33 0 33 33 33 0 33 33 3 & 7 Ethanol 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 3 & 7 Heating oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 & 7 Renewable diesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 & 7 Renewable gasoline 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Biodiesel 1,959 194 2,153 124 2,029 1,306 130 1,435 83 1,352 4 Renewable diesel 254 302 556 82 473 150 177 327 48 279 5 Biogas 20 0 20 20 20 0 20 20 5 Ethanol 26 64 90 90 26 64 90 90 5 Heating oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Naphtha 18 0 18 18 12 0 12 12 5 Renewable diesel 15 0 15 15 9 0 9 9 6 Biodiesel 2 78 80 80 1 52 53 53 6 Ethanol 14,006 1 14,007 846 13,162 14,006 1 14,007 846 13,162 6 Renewable diesel 0 257 257 249 9 0 151 151 146 5

3 & 7 33 0 33 0 0 33 33 0 33 0 0 33 4 2,213 496 2,709 82 124 2,502 1,456 307 1,763 48 83 1,631 5 79 64 143 0 0 143 67 64 131 0 0 131 6 14,008 336 14,345 249 846 13,250 14,008 204 14,212 146 846 13,220

All advanced 2,325 560 2,885 82 124 2,679 1,556 371 1,927 48 83 1,796 Total 16,333 897 17,230 331 970 15,929 15,563 576 16,139 195 929 15,016

Total ethanol 14,033 66 14,098 0 846 13,253 14,033 66 14,098 0 846 13,253 Total biodiesel 1,961 272 2,233 0 124 2,108 1,307 181 1,489 0 83 1,406 Total renewable diesel 269 559 828 331 0 497 158 329 487 195 0 293

### Table II.C.1-1 2014 Actual Supply (million RINs)

a Totals may not add up due to rounding.



### Table II.C.1-1 2014 Actual Supply (million RINs)

a Totals may not add up due to rounding. 

### All advanced biofuel (D3+D4+D5+D7) 2,243 560 124 2,678
All Renewable fuel (D3+D4+D5+D6+D7) 16,251 896 577 16,320 5 79 64 0 143

6 14,008 87 453 13,642 3 &7 33 0 0 33

4 2,131 496 124 2,502 

## PRX's Correction to EPA's May 29th, 2015 Proposal

D code Domestic production Imports Exports Net supply a 

### All advanced biofuel (D3+D4+D5+D7) 2,243 560 124 2,679
All Renewable fuel (D3+D4+D5+D6+D7) 16,002 896 970 15,929 5 79 64 0 143

6 13,759 336 846 13,250 3 &7 33 0 0 33

4 2,131 496 124 2,502 

## EPA Proposed May 29th, 2015

D code Domestic production Imports Exports Net supply a