### CHAPTER 15. EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS TABLE OF CONTENTS 15.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 15-1 15.2 METHOD ...................................................................................................................... 15-1 15.3 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 15-2 15.3.1 Increased Capital Investment Cost Impacts ................................................................... 15-2 15.3.2 Decreased Energy and Water Costs Impacts ................................................................. 15-3 15.3.3 Changes in Operations and Maintenance Costs Impacts ............................................... 15-4 15.3.4 Net National Employment Impacts ................................................................................ 15-5
LIST OF TABLES Table 15.3.1 Commercial Clothes Washers Net National Change in Jobs ............................. 15-6
LIST OF FIGURE Figure 15.3.1 Commercial Clothes Washer Employment Impact of Increased Equipment Cost .................................................................................................................... 15-3 Figure 15.3.2 Commercial Clothes Washer Employment Impact of Energy and Water Figure 15.3.3 Commercial Clothes Washer Employment Impacts of Operations and Savings ............................................................................................................... 15-4 Maintenance Cost Increase ................................................................................ 15-5 Figure 15.3.4 Commercial Clothes Washer Net National Employment Impacts .................... 15-6

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### CHAPTER 15. EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS 15.1 INTRODUCTION The Department defines net national employment impacts from commercial clothes washer efficiency standards as net jobs created or eliminated in the general economy as a consequence of: (1) increased spending on the purchase and installation of new appliances; (2) reduced spending on electricity, natural gas, and water; (3) reduced spending on new investment or capacity by energy companies; (4) changes in operation and maintenance costs; and (5) the associated indirect effects of the above. The technical support document (TSD) for DOE’s notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) covered conventional cooking products (i.e., cooktops and ovens), microwave oven energy factor (EF), microwave oven standby power consumption, and commercial clothes washers (CCW). 1 

### DOE has already completed its standards rulemaking for conventional cooking products and microwave oven EF and has published both a final rule 2 

### and corresponding TSD. 3 

### This chapter presents information and results pertaining solely to CCWs. The impact of more-efficient equipment on microwave oven standby power will be addressed in a subsequent TSD. 15.2 METHOD The Department based its analysis on an input/output model of the U.S. economy that estimates the effects of standards on major sectors of the economy related to buildings and the net impact of standards on jobs. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed the model, ImSET 4 

### (which stands for Im pact of S ector E nergy T echnologies) as a successor to ImBuild 5 

### , a special-purpose version of the IMPLAN 6 

### national input/output model. ImSET estimates the employment and income effects of building energy technologies. In comparison with simple economic multiplier approaches, ImSET allows for more complete and automated analysis of the economic impacts of energy-efficiency investments in buildings. In an input/output model, the level of employment in an economy is determined by the relationship of different sectors of the economy and the spending flows among them. Different sectors have different levels of labor intensity and so changes in the level of spending (e.g., due to the effects of an efficiency standard) in one s ector of the economy will affect flows in other sectors, which affects the overall level of employment. ImSET uses a 188-sector model of the national economy to predict the economic effects of residential and commercial buildings technologies. ImSET collects estimates of initial investments, energy savings, and economic activity associated with spending the savings resulting from standards (e.g., changes in final demand in personal consumption, business 15-1

### investment and spending, and government spending). It provides overall estimates of the change in national output for each input-output sector. The model applies estimates of employment and wage income per dollar of economic output for each sector and calculates impacts on national employment and wage income. Energy-efficiency technology primarily affects the U.S. economy along three spending pathways. First, general investment funds are diverted to sectors that manufacture, install, and maintain energy-efficient appliances. The increased cost of appliances leads to higher employment in the appliance manufacturing sectors and lower employment in other economic sectors. Second, commercial firm spending are redirected from utilities toward firms that supply production inputs. Third, electric utility sector investment funds are released for use in other sectors of the economy. When consumers use less energy, electric utilities experience relative reductions in demand which leads to reductions in utility sector investment and employment. 15.3 RESULTS The results in this section refer to impacts of commercial clothes washer standards relative to the base case. DOE disaggregated the impact of commercial clothes washer standards on employment into three component effects: increased capital investment costs, decreased energy and water costs, and changes in operations and maintenance costs. 15.3.1 Increased Capital Investment Cost Impacts Figures 15.3.1 shows the employment impacts of the increased investment and spending on more-efficient equipment. Because appliance manufacturing is relatively capital-intensive compared to other sectors of the economy, the net result is a small loss of employment.

15-2-0.03 -0.025

-0.02 -0.015

-0.01 -0.005 0 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043

YearIncremental Jobs (1000) TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5



### Figure 15.3.1 Commercial Clothes Washer Employment Impact of Increased Equipment Cost 15.3.2 Decreased Energy and Water Costs Impacts Figures 15.3.2 shows the employment impact of redirected spending made possible by appliance energy savings. In this case, the employment impact is strongly positive, increasing employment in the sectors that supply these firms with production, investment, or financial inputs. Due to an error in the distribution of water savings in ImSET, DOE adds the dollar value of water savings to electricity savings, as the cost multipliers and labor intensity of the water sector and the electricity generation sector are similar.

15-30 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 YearIncremental Jobs (1000) TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5



### Figure 15.3.2 Commercial Clothes Washer Employment Impact of Energy and Water Savings 15.3.3 Changes in Operations and Maintenance Costs Impacts Figures 15.3.3 shows the employment impacts of non-energy operations and maintenancecost increases for commercial clothes washers. Repair and maintenance is comparatively laborintensive, so the net result is a small increase in employment.

15-40 0.005

0.01 0.015

0.02 0.025

2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 YearIncremental Jobs (1000) TSL 1, 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5



### Figure 15.3.3	 Commercial Clothes Washer Employment Impacts of Operations and Maintenance Cost Increase 15.3.4 Net National Employment Impacts Figures 15.3.4 show the estimated net national employment impacts of the commercial clothes washer trial standard levels. For any given year, these figures show the net change in the number of jobs in the economy relative to if there were no change in standards (and thus no resulting change in spending and cash flow patterns throughout the economy). Table 15.3.1 shows the net national employment impact in specific years.

15-5-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 YearIncremental Jobs (1000) TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5



### Figure 15.3.4 Commercial Clothes Washer Net National Employment Impacts Table 15.3.1 Commercial Clothes Washers Net National Change in Jobs

Trial Standard Level 2013 (thousands) 2020 (thousands) 2030 (thousands) 2043 (thousands) 1 2 3 4 5 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 1 0 . 0 1 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 5 0 . 2 5 0 . 2 8 0 . 3 4 0 . 0 6 0 . 0 7 0 . 3 9 0 . 4 4 0 . 5 3 0 . 0 7 0 . 0 8 0 . 4 6 0 . 5 2 0 . 6 2

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### REFERENCES 1 

### U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Cooking Products, and Commercial Clothes Washers , September, 2008. Washington, DC. < http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/home_appl_tsd.html > 2 

### U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen Ranges and Ovens) and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final Rule. Federal Register , 2009. 74(66): pp. 16040-16096. 3 

### U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Cooking Products, and Commercial Clothes Washers , March, 2009. Washington, DC. < http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/cooking_products_final_rul e_tsd.html > 4 

### Roop, J.M., M. J. Scott, and R. W. Schultz. ImSET: Impact of Sector Energy Technologies . Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. July 2005. 5 

### Scott, M. J., D. J. Hostick, and D. B. Belzer, ImBuild: Impact of Building Energy Efficiency Programs , April, 1998. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Richland, WA. Report No. PNNL-11884. Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830. 6 

### Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc., IMPLAN Professional: User’s Guide, Analysis Guide, Data Guide , 1997. Stillwater, MN.

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