# 13-i 

# CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

13.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 13-1

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................ 13-1

13.3 METHOD ...................................................................................................................... 13-2

13.4 RESULTS

...................................................................................................................... 13-3

13-4

13-5

13-5

13-6

13-6

13-7

13-7

13-8

13-9

13-9

13-10

13-10

13-11

13-11

13-12

13-12 LIST OF TABLES

Table 13.4.1 AEO2009 Stimulus Reference (Ameri can Recovery and Reinvestment

Act) Case Forecast

............................................................................................. Table 13.4.2 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

..................... Table 13.4.3 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

..................... Table 13.4.4 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

..................... Table 13.4.5 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

..................... Table 13.4.6 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

..................... Table 13.4.7 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

..................... Table 13.4.8 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast

..................... Table 13.4.9 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

............. Table 13.4.10 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

............. Table 13.4.11 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

........... Table 13.4.12 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

........... Table 13.4.13 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

........... Table 13.4.14 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

........... Table 13.4.15 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast

........... Table 13.4.16 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 8 Forecast

...........

# CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of small electric motor standard levels on the electric utility

industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Info rmation Administration (EIA)’s National Energy

Modeling System (NEMS). a 

# NEMS is a public domain, multi -sectored, partial equilibrium

model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE /EIA uses NEMS to produce a baseline e

forecast for the United States, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) . The AEO for 2009 (AEO2009)

forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030. 1 

# DOE used a variant of this model, referred

to here as NEMS-BT, nergy

b 

# to account for the impacts of small electric motor energy conservation

standards on the baseline energy fo recast. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a comparison

between model results for the AEO2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Case and for

policy cases in which standards ar e in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the

AEO2009 . For example, the operating characteri stics (e.g., energy conve rsion efficiency,

emissions rates) of future electricity ge nerating plants are as specified in the AEO2009 Reference

Case, as are the prospect s for natural gas supply.

The utility impact analysis reports the change s in installed capacity and generation that

result for each trial standard level (TSL) by fuel type, as well as changes in residential electricity

consumption. The AEO2009 reference case corresponds to the American Recovery and

Reinvestment Act (Stimulus) case.

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in

the analysis of energy conservation standards. NE MS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well

known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition,

the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits th e modeling of interact ions among the various

energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of

the effects of energy conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used

to estimate marginal effects, which yield a be tter estimate of the actual impact of energy

conservation standards than cons idering only average effects.

a 

# For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003 , DOE/EIA-0581(2003),

March, 2003.

b 

# DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any

modification to code or data. Because this analysis enta ils some minor code modifications and the model is run

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE ’ s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT

was previously called NEMS-BRS.

# 13-2 

# The utility impact analysis us es the assumptions of the AEO2009 and treats polyphase

and capacitor-start small electric motor energy co nservation standards as variations in policy.

The effect of the policy is calcula ted as the difference between the AEO2009 Reference Case and

each proposed standard case. Because the implemen tation of standards reduces total electricity

demand by less than one percent in any given year, its effect cannot be dete cted directly in the

simulations. Therefore, DOE mode led larger reductions in dema nd and interpolated results for

the TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation.

13.3 METHOD

DOE used the national energy savings develope d in the national impact analysis (chapter

10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magn itude of the energy decrement that would be

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger

than the highest efficiency standard under c onsideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMSBT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the

results to estimate actual changes in gene ration and capacity due to the standard.

Policy runs are executed by reducing el ectricity consumption in the NEMS-BT

Residential Demand, Commercial Demand, and I ndustrial Demand Modules. The savings are

divided evenly among the U.S. Census division s. All fuels are considered simultaneously.

Although the current time hor izon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the small electric

motor energy conservation standards analysis exte nd to the year 2045. It is not feasible to extend

the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an

approved method for extrapolation of ma ny outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem

reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable

because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by

extrapolations of those outputs could be incons istent with the extrapolation of marginal

emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is

beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty.

Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simp le replications of year 2030 results. While

these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be

consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the

extrapolation period. Only changes that have b een announced with date-c ertain introduction are

included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolat ed results wherever they appear, they are

shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.

# 13-3 

# 13.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity,

and residential-sector consumption. Results ar e for all TSLs are presented in five-year

increments to year 2030. Beyond year 2030, an extrapolation to 2045 for each proposed TSL

represents a simple replicati on of the year 2030 results.

The results from the AEO2009 Reference Case are shown in Table 13.4.1

.

A separate set of TSLs are modeled for each energy conservation standard product. Seven

TSL are modeled for polyphase small electric mo tors and eight TSLs are modeled for capacitorstart small electric motors. The reference case re sults for each TSL are presented in Tables 13.4.2

through 13.4.16. The results from polyphase SEM TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.2 through

13.4.8 and the results from capacitor-start SEM TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.9 through

13.4.16. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 13.3 for

total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity.

The proposed polyphase SEM TSLs reduce elect ricity consumption compared to the

AEO2009 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA model range from 0.004

to 0.042 percent of to tal electricity cons umption by year 2030.

The proposed capacitor-start SEM TSLs also reduce electricity consumption compared to

the AEO2009 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA model range from

0.10 to 0.22 percent of total electr icity consumption by year 2030.

# Table 13.4.1 AEO2009 Stimulus Reference (America n Recovery and Reinvestment

Act) Case Forecast



# NEMS-BT Results: AEO2009 Reference

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1



# Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 

# 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00

Other (Quads) 3 

# 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4



# Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797

Total (TWh) 5 

# 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021

Installed Generating Capacity 6



# Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6

Other Fossil (GW) 7 

# 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3

Total (GW) 8 

# 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3

Residential Fuel Prices 9



# Electricity (¢/kWh) 10.00 9.77 10.55 11.08 11.24 11.79

Natural Gas ($/GJ) 12.39 10.61 10.75 11.90 12.00 13.27

Petroleum Products ($/GJ) 16.57 12.66 20.46 23.24 23.84 25.48

Natural Gas ($/MBtu) 13.07 11.19 11.34 12.56 12.66 14.00

Petroleum Products ($/MBtu) 17.48 13.36 21.59 24.52 25.15 26.88

1 

# Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2009: Energy Consumption, Residential

2 

# Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electricity Sales by Sector

3 

# Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

4 

# Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

5 

# Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

6 

# Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

7 

# Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

8 

# Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

9 

# Comparable to Table A3 of AEO2009: Residential



# 13-4Table 13.4.2Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.12 -0.20 -0.22 -0.22 -0.22 -0.22Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06Gas (TWh)753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.02 0.04 -0.01 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.02 -0.07 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.12 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW)0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04ExtrapolationTable 13.4.3Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,660 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.29 -0.47 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14Gas (TWh)753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.05 0.10 -0.03 -0.14 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.04 -0.15 -0.15 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.27 -0.43 -0.46 -0.46 -0.46 -0.46Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.3 1,071.4 1,125.8 1,185.2 Total (GW)0.00 -0.01 -0.06 -0.07 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10Extrapolation13-5Table 13.4.4Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,570 1,660 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.53 -0.88 -0.96 -0.96 -0.96 -0.96Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.01 -0.04 -0.16 -0.23 -0.26 -0.26 -0.26 -0.26Gas (TWh)753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.09 0.19 -0.06 -0.27 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.08 -0.28 -0.28 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,811 5,020 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.50 -0.80 -0.86 -0.86 -0.86 -0.86Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.3 542.3 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.5 171.0 176.0 182.2 188.2 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.03 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.3 1,071.4 1,125.7 1,185.1 Total (GW)0.00 -0.03 -0.11 -0.12 -0.18 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19ExtrapolationTable 13.4.5Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,570 1,660 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.10 -0.61 -1.00 -1.10 -1.10 -1.10 -1.10Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.01 -0.05 -0.19 -0.27 -0.29 -0.29 -0.29 -0.29Gas (TWh)753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.10 0.22 -0.07 -0.31 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.09 -0.33 -0.32 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,811 5,020 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.57 -0.92 -0.98 -0.98 -0.98 -0.98Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.3 542.3 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.5 171.0 176.0 182.2 188.2 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.03 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.3 1,071.4 1,125.7 1,185.1 Total (GW)0.00 -0.03 -0.12 -0.14 -0.21 -0.22 -0.22 -0.22 -0.22Extrapolation13-6Table 13.4.6Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 5 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,659 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.17 -1.03 -1.68 -1.84 -1.84 -1.84 -1.84Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.02 -0.08 -0.32 -0.45 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49Gas (TWh)753 775 647 714 907 978 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.17 0.37 -0.11 -0.52 -0.57 -0.57 -0.57 -0.57Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 468 644 706 770 796 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.16 -0.55 -0.53 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,810 5,019 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.96 -1.54 -1.64 -1.64 -1.64 -1.64Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.2 451.7 499.2 542.2 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.07 -0.17 -0.17 -0.17 -0.17 -0.17Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.4 170.9 175.9 182.2 188.1 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.05 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15Total (GW)952.3 1,030.1 1,049.2 1,071.3 1,125.6 1,184.9 Total (GW)0.00 -0.05 -0.20 -0.24 -0.34 -0.37 -0.37 -0.37 -0.37ExtrapolationTable 13.4.7Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 6 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,659 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.18 -1.13 -1.85 -2.02 -2.02 -2.02 -2.02Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,304 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.02 -0.09 -0.35 -0.49 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54Gas (TWh)753 775 647 714 907 978 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.19 0.41 -0.12 -0.57 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 468 644 706 770 796 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.18 -0.60 -0.59 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,810 5,019 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.28 -1.06 -1.70 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.5 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.2 451.7 499.2 542.2 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.07 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.4 170.9 175.9 182.1 188.1 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.06 -0.17 -0.17 -0.16 -0.17 -0.17 -0.17 -0.17Total (GW)952.3 1,030.1 1,049.2 1,071.2 1,125.5 1,184.9 Total (GW)0.00 -0.06 -0.22 -0.26 -0.38 -0.41 -0.41 -0.41 -0.41Extrapolation13-7Table 13.4.8Polyphase Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 7 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,659 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.21 -1.31 -2.15 -2.35 -2.35 -2.35 -2.35Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,202 2,304 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.02 -0.10 -0.40 -0.57 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63Gas (TWh)753 775 647 714 907 978 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.22 0.47 -0.14 -0.66 -0.73 -0.73 -0.73 -0.73Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 468 644 706 770 796 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.20 -0.70 -0.68 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,810 5,019 Total (TWh)0.00 -0.01 -0.33 -1.23 -1.98 -2.10 -2.10 -2.10 -2.10Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.5 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.2 451.7 499.2 542.2 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.09 -0.22 -0.22 -0.22 -0.22 -0.22Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.4 170.9 175.9 182.1 188.1 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.06 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20Total (GW)952.3 1,030.1 1,049.1 1,071.2 1,125.5 1,184.8 Total (GW)0.00 -0.07 -0.26 -0.31 -0.44 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48Extrapolation13-8Table 13.4.9Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.16 -0.22 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,202 2,304 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.06 -0.28 -1.15 -1.36 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45Gas (TWh)753 776 648 713 906 977 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.55 1.08 -0.61 -1.54 -1.72 -1.72 -1.72 -1.72Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 468 643 705 769 795 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.50 -1.68 -1.65 -1.80 -1.78 -1.78 -1.78 -1.78Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,307 4,541 4,807 5,016 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.89 -3.41 -4.69 -4.95 -4.95 -4.95 -4.95Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.5 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.1 451.6 498.9 541.9 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 -0.01 -0.10 -0.20 -0.50 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.3 170.6 175.6 181.8 187.8 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.16 -0.47 -0.47 -0.46 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47Total (GW)952.3 1,030.0 1,048.8 1,070.8 1,124.9 1,184.2 Total (GW)0.00 -0.17 -0.63 -0.73 -1.02 -1.12 -1.12 -1.12 -1.12ExtrapolationTable 13.4.10Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.16 -0.22 -0.24 -0.24 -0.24 -0.24Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,202 2,304 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.06 -0.29 -1.17 -1.38 -1.47 -1.47 -1.47 -1.47Gas (TWh)753 776 648 713 906 977 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.56 1.10 -0.62 -1.57 -1.75 -1.75 -1.75 -1.75Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 467 643 705 769 795 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.51 -1.71 -1.68 -1.83 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,307 4,541 4,807 5,016 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.90 -3.47 -4.77 -5.03 -5.03 -5.03 -5.03Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.5 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.1 451.6 498.9 541.9 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 -0.01 -0.10 -0.21 -0.51 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.3 170.6 175.6 181.8 187.8 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.16 -0.48 -0.48 -0.47 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48Total (GW)952.3 1,030.0 1,048.8 1,070.8 1,124.9 1,184.2 Total (GW)0.00 -0.17 -0.64 -0.75 -1.04 -1.14 -1.14 -1.14 -1.14Extrapolation13-9Table 13.4.11Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.20 -0.28 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,201 2,303 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.07 -0.36 -1.48 -1.76 -1.88 -1.88 -1.88 -1.88Gas (TWh)753 776 648 713 906 977 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.72 1.39 -0.78 -1.99 -2.23 -2.23 -2.23 -2.23Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 467 643 705 769 795 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.65 -2.18 -2.14 -2.33 -2.30 -2.30 -2.30 -2.30Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,307 4,540 4,806 5,015 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -1.15 -4.41 -6.07 -6.40 -6.40 -6.40 -6.40Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.4 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.1 451.5 498.7 541.7 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 -0.01 -0.13 -0.27 -0.65 -0.66 -0.66 -0.66 -0.66Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.3 170.5 175.5 181.7 187.7 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.20 -0.61 -0.60 -0.59 -0.61 -0.61 -0.61 -0.61Total (GW)952.3 1,030.0 1,048.6 1,070.6 1,124.6 1,183.9 Total (GW)0.00 -0.22 -0.81 -0.95 -1.32 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45ExtrapolationTable 13.4.12Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.23 -0.33 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,196 2,201 2,303 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.08 -0.42 -1.72 -2.04 -2.17 -2.17 -2.17 -2.17Gas (TWh)753 776 649 713 906 976 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.83 1.61 -0.91 -2.31 -2.58 -2.58 -2.58 -2.58Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 467 642 705 768 794 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.75 -2.52 -2.48 -2.69 -2.66 -2.66 -2.66 -2.66Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,307 4,539 4,805 5,014 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -1.33 -5.11 -7.03 -7.41 -7.41 -7.41 -7.41Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.4 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.1 451.5 498.6 541.6 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 -0.02 -0.15 -0.31 -0.75 -0.76 -0.76 -0.76 -0.76Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.3 170.4 175.4 181.6 187.6 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.24 -0.70 -0.70 -0.69 -0.70 -0.70 -0.70 -0.70Total (GW)952.3 1,029.9 1,048.5 1,070.4 1,124.4 1,183.6 Total (GW)0.00 -0.25 -0.94 -1.10 -1.53 -1.68 -1.68 -1.68 -1.68Extrapolation13-10Table 13.4.13Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 5 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.23 -0.32 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,196 2,201 2,303 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.08 -0.41 -1.67 -1.99 -2.13 -2.13 -2.13 -2.13Gas (TWh)753 776 649 713 906 976 Gas (TWh)0.00 0.81 1.57 -0.88 -2.26 -2.53 -2.53 -2.53 -2.53Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 467 643 705 768 794 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.73 -2.46 -2.42 -2.63 -2.61 -2.61 -2.61 -2.61Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,307 4,539 4,805 5,014 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -1.30 -4.99 -6.88 -7.26 -7.26 -7.26 -7.26Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.4 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21 -0.21Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.1 451.5 498.7 541.7 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 -0.02 -0.15 -0.30 -0.74 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.3 170.4 175.4 181.6 187.6 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.23 -0.68 -0.68 -0.67 -0.69 -0.69 -0.69 -0.69Total (GW)952.3 1,030.0 1,048.5 1,070.4 1,124.4 1,183.7 Total (GW)0.00 -0.25 -0.92 -1.07 -1.50 -1.64 -1.64 -1.64 -1.64ExtrapolationTable 13.4.14Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 6 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.29 -0.40 -0.43 -0.43 -0.43 -0.43Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,137 2,196 2,200 2,302 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.10 -0.52 -2.12 -2.52 -2.68 -2.68 -2.68 -2.68Gas (TWh)753 776 649 713 905 976 Gas (TWh)0.00 1.03 1.99 -1.12 -2.85 -3.18 -3.18 -3.18 -3.18Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 467 642 704 768 794 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.92 -3.11 -3.06 -3.32 -3.29 -3.29 -3.29 -3.29Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,306 4,538 4,803 5,012 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -1.64 -6.31 -8.68 -9.15 -9.15 -9.15 -9.15Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.3 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.26 -0.26 -0.26 -0.26Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.0 451.4 498.5 541.5 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 -0.02 -0.19 -0.38 -0.93 -0.94 -0.94 -0.94 -0.94Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.2 170.2 175.2 181.5 187.4 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.29 -0.87 -0.86 -0.85 -0.86 -0.86 -0.86 -0.86Total (GW)952.3 1,029.9 1,048.2 1,070.1 1,124.0 1,183.2 Total (GW)0.00 -0.31 -1.16 -1.36 -1.89 -2.07 -2.07 -2.07 -2.07Extrapolation13-1113-12Table 13.4.15Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 7 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.30 -0.41 -0.44 -0.44 -0.44 -0.44Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,137 2,196 2,200 2,302 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.11 -0.53 -2.17 -2.57 -2.74 -2.74 -2.74 -2.74Gas (TWh)753 776 649 713 905 976 Gas (TWh)0.00 1.05 2.04 -1.15 -2.91 -3.26 -3.26 -3.26 -3.26Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 467 642 704 768 794 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -0.95 -3.18 -3.13 -3.40 -3.36 -3.36 -3.36 -3.36Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,306 4,538 4,803 5,012 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -1.68 -6.45 -8.88 -9.36 -9.36 -9.36 -9.36Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.3 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.11 -0.12 -0.12 -0.27 -0.27 -0.27 -0.27Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.0 451.4 498.4 541.4 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 -0.02 -0.19 -0.39 -0.95 -0.96 -0.96 -0.96 -0.96Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.2 170.2 175.2 181.4 187.4 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.30 -0.89 -0.88 -0.87 -0.88 -0.88 -0.88 -0.88Total (GW)952.3 1,029.9 1,048.2 1,070.1 1,124.0 1,183.2 Total (GW)0.00 -0.32 -1.19 -1.39 -1.94 -2.12 -2.12 -2.12 -2.12ExtrapolationTable 13.4.16Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motor Trial Standard Level 8 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Stimulus Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,660 Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.34 -0.47 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51Natural Gas (EJ)5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,137 2,195 2,200 2,302 Coal (TWh)0.00 -0.12 -0.62 -2.50 -2.97 -3.17 -3.17 -3.17 -3.17Gas (TWh)753 776 649 713 905 975 Gas (TWh)0.00 1.21 2.35 -1.32 -3.36 -3.76 -3.76 -3.76 -3.76Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (TWh)357 467 641 703 767 793 Renewables (TWh)0.00 -1.09 -3.68 -3.61 -3.93 -3.88 -3.88 -3.88 -3.88Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,306 4,537 4,802 5,010 Total (TWh)0.00 0.00 -1.94 -7.45 -10.25 -10.81 -10.81 -10.81 -10.81Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.8 344.3 Coal (GW)0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31Other Fossil (GW)438.9 470.5 443.0 451.4 498.3 541.3 Other Fossil (GW)0.00 -0.02 -0.22 -0.45 -1.10 -1.11 -1.11 -1.11 -1.11Nuclear (GW)100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Renewables (GW)99.5 133.2 170.1 175.1 181.3 187.3 Renewables (GW)0.00 -0.34 -1.02 -1.02 -1.00 -1.02 -1.02 -1.02 -1.02Total (GW)952.3 1,029.8 1,048.0 1,069.9 1,123.7 1,182.9 Total (GW)0.00 -0.37 -1.37 -1.60 -2.23 -2.44 -2.44 -2.44 -2.44Extrapolation

# 13-13 

# REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to

2030 , 2009. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2009).

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ >