AlisonWilliamsLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryMay14,2014ASRACPumpsWorkingGroupLifeCycleCostAnalysisUpdates2UpdatedInputs:MarkupsAnalysisChannel: FromManufacturerPreviousShareofShipmentsNewshareofShipmentsPumpOEMtoDistributortoEndUser 87%70%PumpOEMtoDistributortoContractortoEndUser0%17%PumpOEMtoOEMtoEndUser8%8%PumpOEMtoEndUser2%2%PumpOEMtoContractortoEndUser 1%1%PreviousMarkup NewMarkupBaseline 1.501.51Incremental 1.241.27•Reviseddistributionchannelstoaccountfornewchannel–Assigned20%ofPumpOEMDistributorEndUserchanneltothenewchanneltorepresentthenewmarket(asopposedtoreplacementmarket)3UpdatedInputs:EnergyUseLoadProfilesPreviousWts New WtsLP0 25%30%LP1 25%30%LP2 25%30%LP3 25%10%•RevisedLP3weighttomakeoverloadinglessprevalent4UpdatedInputs:AnnualOperatingHours• Revisedoperatinghoursin“other”sectorQuintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile4 Quintile5CoolingWater 2500 3500 5000 6000 7500BoilerFeed 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000Circulation 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000Pressure Boost 300 600 1000 2500 4500Irrigation 300 600 1000 1500 2000Other 600 940 1500 3300 3300RevisedOther 1000 1500 2000 3000 40005UpdatedInputs:SectorWeightsDataEst ConsultantEst StakeholderEst RevisedEstAgriculture 7% 5% 15%10%Commercial 60% 49% 50%51%Industrial 30% 40% 25%33%Municipal 3% 6% 10%6%•Revisedsectorweightstoreducecommercialweight6UpdatedInputs:Lifetime(1)•RevisedESFMandILlifetimetoaccountforrepaircycles•Revised3600lifetimetobeshorterthan1800rpmEquipmentClassPreviousAverageofMechanicalLife (Hours)RevisedAverageofMechanicalLife(Hours)ESCC180022,20028,000ESCC360022,10018,100ESFM180015,10073,000ESFM360014,60049,600IL180025,00047,300IL360024,60031,500* 70% CC with 0 repairs,30% FM with 5 repairsEquipmentClass No. ofRepairs Avg.LifetimeESCC18000 12.7ESCC36000 8.4ESFM1800528.4ESFM3600522.5IL18001.519.3IL36001.514.47UpdatedInputs:Lifetime(2)8OriginalScenario•Thecostofimprovingefficiencyissummarizedinthe“costcurve”presentedbelowasproductcostvs.C‐valueforonerepresentativeunit(ESCC1800)•Consumersonlypurchaseamoreexpensiveredesignedpumpiftherearenoalreadyexistingpumpsavailable– resultsinverylimitedcostrecovery9‐$500$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000ESCC,1800 ESCC,3600 ESFM,1800 ESFM,3600 IL,1800 IL,3600PER10PER25PER40PER55PER70ΔOperating CostΔPurchase PricePreviousUpdatedUpdatedLCCResultswithOriginalScenario‐$500$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000ESCC,1800 ESCC,3600 ESFM,1800 ESFM,3600 IL,1800 IL,3600PER10PER25PER40PER55PER70ΔOperating CostΔPurchase Price10NewEngineeringandScenarios11Scenario1:NoCostRecovery•Basecasecostcurveonly•Noconversioncostsarepassedontoconsumers•Affectedconsumerspurchasepumpsmeetingtheminimumstandardatpricesequivalenttothosealreadyonthemarket.40060080010001200140016001800110 115 120 125 130 135

MSP $C‐valueper_0per_10per_25per_40per_55per_7012Scenario2:FullCostRecovery•Affectedconsumerspurchasearedesignedversionoftheirpreviouspump•Forcoststoberecovered,theymustbereflectedinthepricesofaffectedpumps–IncreasedpriceusedinthisLCCscenariobasedonanannuitythatcreateszerochangeinINPVovertheanalysisperiod40060080010001200140016001800110 115 120 125 130 135

MSP $C‐valueper_0per_10per_25per_40per_55per_7013Scenario1(NoCostRecovery):Results‐$500$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500ESCC,1800 ESCC,3600 ESFM,1800 ESFM,3600 IL,1800 IL,3600PER10PER25PER40PER55PER70ΔOperating CostΔPurchase Price14Scenario2(FullCostRecovery):Results‐$500$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500ESCC,1800 ESCC,3600 ESFM,1800 ESFM,3600 IL,1800 IL,3600PER10PER25PER40PER55PER70ΔOperating CostΔPurchase Price15•NoCostRecovery•FullCostRecovery$‐$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500PER10PER25PER40PER55PER70ScenarioComparison:AverageLCCSavings$‐$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500PER10PER25PER40PER55PER7016•NoCostRecovery•FullCostRecoveryScenarioComparison:DistributionofResults0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC1800LosersNoImpactWinners0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC1800LosersNoImpactWinners17Scenario2(FullCostRecovery):ResultsPER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC,1800NetBenefit7 23 29 31 31NetCost10 9 19 27 40NoImpact82 68 52 42 28ESCC,3600NetBenefit2 9 11 13 17NetCost2 1 13 14 13NoImpact96 91 76 73 70ESFM,1800NetBenefit3 18 31 41 50NetCost2 8 16 24 28NoImpact95 74 53 34 22ESFM,3600NetBenefit11 22 36 44 55NetCost23756NoImpact87 75 57 51 39IL,1800NetBenefit13 26 28 31 32NetCost2 6 13 22 32NoImpact85 69 59 47 36IL,3600NetBenefit26 39 44 45 51NetCost1 4 6 9 13NoImpact73 56 50 46 3618Back‐of‐the‐envelopeSavingsCalc:AllPurchasersൌ ݏ݅݊݃ݒܵܽ	ݐݏ݋ܥ	݅݊݃ݐܽݎ݁݌ܱ	݅݉݁ݐ݂݅݁ܮ݅݉݁ݐ݂݅݁ܮ ∗ 	݅ܿ݁ݎܲ	݈݁ܿܧ ∗ 	ݏ݅݊݃ݒܽݏ	݁ݏݑ	ݕ݃ݎ݁݊݁	݈ܽݑ݊݊ܣሻ݅݊݃ݐ݊ݑ݋ܿݏ݀݅	ݎ݋݂	ݐ݊ݑ݋ܽܿܿ	݋ݐሺ	2ൌಲೡ೒	್ೌೞ೐	೎ೌೞ೐	ೞ೓ೌ೑೟	ಹು	@	ಳಶುಲೡ೒	೘೚೟೚ೝ	೐೑೑∗஺௩௚	ு௉௒	∗஺௩௚	ா௙௙	ூ௡௖ ∗ா௟௘௖	௉௥௜௖௘	∗௅௜௙௘௧௜௠௘ଶAvg HP/93%MotorEff(HP)Avg HPY(hours)Avg EffInc.(PER10)(%)Avg EffInc.(PER40)(%)ElecPrice($/kwh)Life‐time(Years)LifetimeOperatingCostSavings(PER10)($)LifetimeOperatingCostSavings(PER40)($)ESCC180010.84 2712 0.57 2.76 0.085 12.7 $76.69 $368.04ESFM180017.96 2720 0.08 1.41 0.085 28.4 $37.46 $664.54$‐$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800ESCC1800 ESFM,1800PER10Back‐of‐the‐envelopefromLCC$‐$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800ESCC1800 ESFM,1800PER40Back‐of‐the‐envelopefromLCC19Back‐of‐the‐envelopeSavingsCalc:ImpactedPurchasersൌ ݏ݅݊݃ݒܵܽ	ݐݏ݋ܥ	݅݊݃ݐܽݎ݁݌ܱ	݅݉݁ݐ݂݅݁ܮ݅݉݁ݐ݂݅݁ܮ ∗ 	݅ܿ݁ݎܲ	݈݁ܿܧ ∗ 	ݏ݅݊݃ݒܽݏ	݁ݏݑ	ݕ݃ݎ݁݊݁	݈ܽݑ݊݊ܣሻ݅݊݃ݐ݊ݑ݋ܿݏ݀݅	ݎ݋݂	ݐ݊ݑ݋ܽܿܿ	݋ݐሺ	2ൌಲೡ೒	್ೌೞ೐	೎ೌೞ೐	ೞ೓ೌ೑೟	ಹು	@	ಳಶುಲೡ೒	೘೚೟೚ೝ	೐೑೑∗஺௩௚	ு௉௒	∗஺௩௚	ா௙௙	ூ௡௖ ∗ா௟௘௖	௉௥௜௖௘	∗௅௜௙௘௧௜௠௘ଶAvg HP/93%MotorEff(HP)Avg HPY(hours)Avg EffInc.(PER10)(%)Avg EffInc.(PER40)(%)ElecPrice($/kwh)Life‐time(Years)LifetimeOperatingCostSavings(PER10)($)LifetimeOperatingCostSavings(PER40)($)ESCC180010.84 2712 3.26 5.71 0.085 12.7 $435.68 $763.20ESFM180017.96 2720 1.46 3.02 0.085 28.4 $691.48 $1428.19$‐$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600ESCC1800 ESFM,1800PER10Back‐of‐the‐envelopefromLCC$‐$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600ESCC1800 ESFM,1800PER40Back‐of‐the‐envelopefromLCCAvg. Consumer Price Increase = $230Avg. Consumer Price Increase = $13020NationalEnergySavingsEstimates•Assumptions–HITotalIndustryEstimateAnnualShipments–AverageAnnualEnergySavings(LCCresults)–AverageLifetime(LCCresults)–30yearsofshipments–2.5sitetosourcefactor–3412btu/kwh;10^15btu/quad•Equipmentclasses:ESCC,ESFM,ILNESestimate(quads)PER100.08PER250.28PER400.46PER 550.69PER701.0