Unlted States 

Department of 

Agriculture 

Forest Sewice 

Southern 

Research Station 

General Technical 

Report SE-95 

User ' s Guide for SeedCalc: 

A Decision-Support System 

for Integrated Pest Management 

in Slash Pine Seed Orchards 

Carl W. Fatzinger and Wayne N. Dixon 
The use of trade or s in this publication is for rder info ion ad does not imply endorsement by the 

U.S. Department of Agriculture of any product or service. 

March 1996 

Southern Research Station 

P.O. Box 2680 

Asheville, NC 28802 
User's Guide for SeedCalc: 

A Decision-Support System 

for Integrated Pest Management 

in Slash Pine Seed Orchards 

Carl We Fatzinger, Research Entomologist, USDA Forest Service, 

Southern Research Station, Olustee, FL 

Wayne N. Dixon, Bureau Chief, Division of Plant Industry, 

Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Gainesville, FL 

ngement of User's Guide ......................... 2 

Getting S ....................................... 3 

Hardware and Software Requirements ..................... 3 

Installing SeedCalc ................................. 3 

Overview of SeedCalc .................................. 4 

Start-up Procedure .................................... 4 

Exiting SeedCalc .................................. 7 

Creating Management Plans .............................. 7 

Entering Orchard Data ............................... 7 

Modifying SeedCalc's Default Values ..................... 8 

Adjusting Pest Damage Rates ............................. 9 

Monthly or Global Modifications ........................ 9 

Selecting Pest Categories ............................. 11 

Changing Monthly Rates .............................. 11 

Changing Global Rates ............................... 12 

Applying Pesticides .................................... 13 

Application Methods ................................ 14 

Spray Schedules ................................... 14 

Conventional Spray Schedule ........................... 16 

Custom Spray Schedule .............................. 19 

Modifying Cone and Seed Factors .......................... 23 

Distribution of Cone Stages ............................ 23 

Parameters for Seed ................................ 25 

View or Print Red& .................................. 27 

Economic Analysis .................................... 28 

iii 
How SeedCalc Works .................................. 30 

Files .......................................... 30 

Simulation Process ................................. 30 

Program Modules ..................................... 32 

Graphics ........................................ 32 

Starting SeedCalc .................................. 32 

WningMenu .................................... 32 

Supplementary Information ............................ 33 

Entering Orchard Size ............................... 33 

Pest Damage ..................................... 33 

Pesticide Application ................................ 37 

Cone and Seed Factors ............................... 40 

Simulate Results ................................... 42 

Summarize Results ................................. 46 

ViewResults ..................................... 49 

Economic Analysis ................................. 49 

Literature Cited ...................................... 50 

Tables ............................................ 52 

Appendix I-Example of Output from Economic Module ........... 62 

Appendix 11-Troubleshooting SeedCalc ...................... 63 
SeedCalc, a decisionevaluates the corn 

rs to enter or 

lc, presents screen and printer examples, and describes 

ns, default values, and flow charts of the system. 

Keywords: Cone and seed insects, decision-support system, model, Pinur 

elliottii, slash pine, 

Numerow studies have been c0nducM since the late 1950s on the management 

of southern pine orchards (Barcia and Merkel 1 972; Yates and DeBarr 

1984). mese smes have generated considerable infomtion on 

pests, pest aaanagement, orchard productivify, and orchard respo 

other manageme 

in southern pine is difficult to integate into a 

manageable system. 

Managers of southern pine seed orchards have been unable to quickly predict 

and easily interpret the outcomes of different pest management programs. The 

consequences of modifying pest maaagement programs usually remain 

until the efficacy of the modification can be meamred when cones reach 

maturity, generally in 2 yeats. Inkgating pest management alternatives with 

other orchard management practices further complicates the prediction and 

interpretation process. 

SeedCalc is a decision-support system for integrated pest management1 (PM) in 

ellionii Engelm. var . ellibftiq orcktrdr. A decisionsupport system is an interactive help 

decision mkrs use data, mrra e 

unstruca;uceB problems (Coulson and Saunders 1987). With SeedCalc managers 

independnt modules (models) ts shulate cone and 

ge, and pesticidal 6onbrol. A model is an abstraction or 

lnLegsaLed pest mnagement is the maintenance 06 destnrctive agents, including insects, at tolerable levels by the planned use of a variety of 

preventive, suppressive, or regulatory tactics and strategies that are ecologically and economica1Iy eEcient and socially acceptable waters 

1974). 
representation of a syskm process (Starfield and Blecoch 19861, i.e., a 

simplification of reality fWorner 1 99 1). SeedCalc was developed using 

methods similar to those described by Forrester (1968). Simple rate ewtions 

are used in SeedCalc to describe intermediate changes in the population 

densities and conditions of strobili and seed wiChin an orchard over short periods 

of time. These changes and the effects of pest damage, pesticide efficacy, and 

other perturbations are accumulated throughout the development of the strobili. 

Managers can use the models to estimate gains and losses likely to result from 

specific pest management strategies. 

User-installation, simple configuration procedures, and menu-driven operations 

facilitate the use of SeedCalc on a desk top or portable personal computer. 

Information and reports can be viewed on the screen or printed. And the 

system includes other important features: 

A tutorial illustrating the major features of SeedCalc. The tutorial's onscreen prompts allow the user to move through the screens at leisure. 

0 Several on-line help screens and messages to assist the user. Errors in the 

format or type of data entered by the user are recognized, and the user is 

prompted to re-enter the data in uhe correct format. 

0 Ability to simulate two pest management plans with each an of the system. 

This feature facilitates evaluating and comparing different pest management and 

orchard management strategies. A final report comparing cone and seed yields 

is available. 

* Program default values to simulate factors affecting seed orchard productivity 

best damage rates, strobilus productivity, pest management technologies). 

Managers can customize these default values to better describe their om 

orchards, 

Arrangement of the We arranged the User's Guide for SeedCalc to facilitate the following activities: 

User's Guide 

1. Installing the program from one high-density diskette (5 '6 " or 3% ") onto a 

hard drive, 

2. Understanding the general operations of SeedCalc (flowchart provided), 

3. Starting up quickly, 

4. Running a tutorial version of SeedCalc, 

5. Reading step-by-step instructions for 

6. Previewing most screen displays, 

7. Reviewing the funcfions of the modules comprising the SeedCalc, and 

8. Referencing pertinent lierature cited. 
g Started 

dwme and Soaware 

Rquirements 

cs cards and color monitors 

inch paper pmdt mode. 

hg SeedCalc We strongly encourage mpying SeedCalc to a hard drive because hard drives 

access stored files much faster than floppy drives. To copy files to your hard 

drive, you must first create the subdirectory "SEEDCALC" on your hard drive 

(drive C:) as foUows: 

Move to your root directory type CD\ 

0 Make called Sddc 

Move 

Copy the files from the program disk(@ to your hard drive. Place disk in drive 

A (assumes hard drive is drive C): 

@ Copy disk files to your hard drive type COPY A: *. * C: 

The GRAPH(CS procedure correctly (autom~cally or mnually) sets the 

graphics display: 

* Set the system &raphim type GRAPmGS 

Although you only need to follow this procedure once, you must repeat it 

anytime you wish to reset the program' s graphics display, e. g., if you add new 

hardware to your computer. 
Overview of SeedCalc SeedCalc has 18 program modules. Fourteen are system modules that interact 

to simulate seed production, pest damage, and pest management in slash pine 

seed orchards. The remaining four modules are used to modify the system's 

default values. The program integrates data entered by the user and consists of 

more than 278 variables, 117 data arrays, and 37 data files and associated 

batch, document, and text files. 

The operational sequence for SeedCalc is illustrated in figure 1. Initial menus 

access the interactive programs, a tutorial, and a variety of other information. 

SeedCalc simulates two pest management plans (Plans A and B), so comparing 

plans is possible. The first step in creating management plans is to enter 

information about the size of an orchard and its flower crop. Options are 

available in SeedCalc to modify pest damage rates, pesticide application 

procedures, and orchard parameters for each of the two pest management plans. 

Entered separately for each plan, the modifications are stored separately. When 

modifications are completed, the program will simulate the results of each plan. 

SeedCalc will also provide a comparative economic analysis of the results. The 

user must complete input, analysis, and printing in one session because all 

modified values and inputs are not automatically saved when exiting SeedCalc. 

The interactions between the 14 system modules are illustrated in figure 2. 

Start-up Procedure Start SeedCalc by moving to the SEEDCALC subdirectory on your hard drive 

(created in install procedures), then type SEEDCALC at the DOS prompt. 

Using the following procedure, you can create a batch file to automate this 

procedure: 

Move to your root directory type CD\ 

Create the batch file 0RCHARD.BAT type COPY CON 

SEEDCALC .BAT 

type C: 

type CD\SEEDCALC 

type SEEDCALC 

press the F6 key 

Now, when you type SEEDCALC, the batch file will move to the proper 

subdirectory on your hard drive and start SeedCalc. 
Make Adjwtfsents For: 

App l i cat ion Costs 

Fixed snd Varlable Costs 

Reports for Two Hlnagcment Plans: 

Figure 1--Operational sequence for interactive programs. Opening menus give access to a tutorial and other infomration on SeedCalc. 

The system allows for comparisons by simulating two pest management plans. 
Pipre 2-hbfaeriom between the 14 sy&m modules of SeedCalc. me filemme for mdules end wi& a ". 

llhe function of each mdule is described under the section, "How Seedealc Worb." 
Exiting SeedCalc 

The title screen to SeedCalc will appar and give you three options: (I) start 

the simulation, (2) obtain grogam info tion, or (3) exit back to DOS. 

in Slash Pine Seed Orchards 

USA Forest Service & Florida DACS 

**++++***+*+****+********+***********~************* 

NOTE: Make sure your 'CAPS LOCK' key is turd ON ................................................. 

Enter 1 Start Sirmlation 

2 Infomtim 

3 Exit 

The option to start the simulation is described in the next section. The 

Information option will display information about program structure, contacting 

authors, and hardwarelsoftware requirements. You may also print a short diskbased version of the maw1 when you select this option. 

The preferred method for leaving the program is to use various exit pints 

provided in the SeedCalc menus. If absolutely necessary, you can also exit 

SeedCalc by pressing the Conwol and Break keys simultaneously, then the 

Creating Management Individual menus in SeedCalc are identified by a code number in the upper left 

plans corner. We provide two optiom, wEch appear on many of SeedGalc' s menus, 

to facilitate creating management plans: 

@ "Accept Gurrent Values'kuses the ewrent values (system defaults or user 

modif catiom) and continues program execution, 

@ "Gnsel, Return to Previous h/lenu'\aneels recent m<rdifica~onf in the 

cmrent module (m& as pest dams or psticide itl?plication modules), remres 

default values, and re.turns to either the previos or a specified menu. 

Entering Orehard Data The first menu (1 (MI)) will prompt you to enter infamation concerning the 

size of the orchard, 
Enter the following: 

I Initial number of female strobili 

(flowers)/acre 

1 Orchard size (total acres) 

or 

Enter R to Return to Initial Menu 

Note: El is used throughout the system 

to indicate user input 

We suggest you enter any reasonable estimates of initial numbers of flowers and 

orchard size for the first few work sessions. This will allow you to acquire a 

better sense of SeedCalc' s capabilities. In later sessions, however, you may 

wish to enter data for specific orchards or clones collected. We recommend 

using survey techniques, such as the Inventory Monitoring System (IMS) of 

Bramlett and Godbee (1982) or the Survey and Pest Monitoring System (SPMS) 

of Fatzinger and others (1990). Although data can be estimated from other 

records or surveys of orchard productivity, the IMS and the SPMS control for 

differences in clonal variation. 

Modifying SeedCalc ' s Two pest management plans (Plans A and B) can be created by making two sets 

Default Values of modifications to SeedCalc's default values. Such modifications consist of 

different adjustments to default values of pest damage rates, pesticide 

applications, and cone and seed factors (orchard parameters). The categories of 

modification that can be included in a plan are selected from menu I {M2}. 

Modify Current Values - 

Pest Damage Rates 

Pesticide Applications 

Orchard Parameters 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu R 

Accept Current Values 

Program execution will continue, and new menus will facilitate modifications of 

the default values. The program will return to menu I {M2} after modifications 

are completed for the selected category. 
Adjusting Pest 

Damage Rates 

Monthly or Global 

Modmations 

Defadt values in SeedCalc simdate pest damage and other losses of female 

strobili and seeds in the absence of pest management. You can modify the 

default values to more accurately reflect the conditions in a given orchard by 

selecting "Pest Damage Rates" (choice 1 on menu I {M2)). The program will 

then proceed to menu I {PI}. SeedCalc' s original default values for pest 

damage can be modified either temporarily during the current work session or 

permanently to customize the default values for a specific orchard. 

The default values for damage to female strobili can be modified on either a 

monthly or global (23-month total) basis by entering " 1" or "2" at menu I {Pl}. 

Zeros (= no pest damage) can be entered for all months by pest category only 

when the "Total rate per pest" (option 2) is selected. When zeros are entered 

for all months under the "Monthly rate per pest" (option I), the program uses 

SeedCalc's default values for pest damage. 

PEST DAMAGE RATES 

Modify Current Values 

Monthly rate per pest 

(months 1 to 23) 

Total rate per pest 

(23-month sum) 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu R 

Accept Current Values 

View or Print Pest Damage Rates V or P 
The option 'Yiew or Print Pest Damage Rates" produces tables of current 

values for rates of strobihs attack or strobilus mortality. Before displaying the 

tables, a menu will request selection of the type of damage you wish to view. 

Select type of damage you want to view: 

X Attack 

You decide which management plan (A or B) will reflect changes in sttobilw 

damage in the next menu I (P2j. 

PEST DAMAGE RATES 

Select Management Plan and 

Type of Change 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu 

Accept Current Values 

Opgm " 1" or "Y%myx>orariIy ehange tBe defadt values %sr each plan, 7maese 

lemprary cbnges an be restored b &e defadt valkses by elec~ng tlae 

Breviom Menu" *eon. Opaion "2" chnges the defadt 

tltlese Plan A defauftt values for bo& Plans A ad B. Akr us 

however, SeedCalck s~@ml deEiautt values can only b 

&e DOS prompt and typing "WNUPaT." "After m qciion is seiectedl, 

program will proceed to menu I {P3). 
PEST DANAGE RATES 

PLAN A (tmorary changes) ENTER MODIFIED 

- - 

Select Pest Category to Modify 

Slash pine flower thrips 

Coneworm 

Unidentified insects 

Accept Current Values 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu 

Selecting Pest Categories You can modify up to four categories of pests that damage strobili: (1) slash 

pine flower thrips, Gnophothrips furcus (Morgan); (2) coneworms , Diorycfria 

spp. ; (3) unidentified insects (including the pales weevil, Hylobius pales 

(Herbst), May beetle, Phyllophaga micans (Knoch), and sawyers, Monocham 

spp.); and (4) -own factors including adverse weather conditions, an 

inadequate supply of pollen (Sarvas 1962), and nymphal feeding by the seed bug 

Leproglossus corculus (Say) @eBarr and Ebel 1974). When a category is 

selected, the program will proceed to either menu I (P4) for changing monthly 

rates or menu 1 {P5) for changing global rates of pest damage. 

Changiog Monthly Rates Estimates of pest damage are entered in the following sequence for the selected 

category in menu I (P4): (1) month number (assuming months are numbered 

from 1 to 12 beginning with January), (2) percent attack, and (3) percent 

mortality. Up to 23 monthly estimates can be entered for each category to 

simulate damage to strobili over a 2-year period. When only zeros are entered 

for damage by a pest category under the monthly rates, SeedCalc ignores the 

zero entries and uses program default values. Zero values for one or more pest 

categories can be entered only by selecting "Total rate per pest" (option 2) from 

menu I (PI). New distributions of attack and mortality are calculated by 

SeedCalc using the monthly data entered for the pest category selected. Default 

values for other pest caegories remain unchanged until the category is 

specifically selected for change. 
The following example shows how screen I (P4) would appear when pest 

category 2 (coneworms) is selected for modification. May (month 5) monthly 

values are 25 percent attack and 20 percent mortality, and June (month 6) 

values are 5 percent attack and 3 percent mortality. 

Changing Global Rates Estimates for the total rates of strobilus attack and mortality over a 23-month 

period can be entered for each of the four damage categories in menu I (PS). 

The program distributes these rates over the 23-month period of strobilus 

development. New distributions are calculated to parallel the corresponding 

default distributions of attack and mortality rates for each category. Thus, the 

default distributions are used to define the shape of the new distributions, but the 

new distributions reflect the modified damage rates as entered for each pest 

category selected. 

I CP43 

MODIFY CURRENT VALUES >>>---> WHEN FINISHED, 

PEST DAMAGE RATES enter an A 

PLAN A (temporary changes) Coneuorms for Month No. 

Month No. % Attack % Mortality 

[-5-1 L25-I C-20-1 

E61 E 5 I [ 3 I 

[A-1 

Month No. % Attack X Mortality 

Note: % Attack should be greater than or equal to % mortality 

Enter percentages as follows: 5.7 for 5.n 
Applying Pesticides 

The following example shows how screen I {P5} will appear when pest 

category 2 (coneworms) is selected for modification, and global values of 25 

percent attack and 20 pereent mortality are entered. 

MODIFY CURRENT VALUES 

PEST DAMAGE RATES 

PLAN A (temporary changes) Coneworms 

Enter total % damage attributable to Coneworms 

over a 23-month period of development: 

% Attack t-25-1 % Mortality t-20-1 

Note--% Attack should be greater than or equal to % mortality 

Enter percentages as follows: 5.7 for 5.7% 

The program will return to menu I (P3) after entries in menus I (P4) or I (P5) 

are made. An asterisk will appear in the column labeled "Modified" to indicate 

which pest categories have been altered. Additional categories of pests can then 

be chosen for modification from menu I {P3). 

You can simulate the effects of applying pesticides and using specific pesticide 

application techniques for each management plan by selecting the Pesticide 

Applications option of menu I {M2}. Selecting a pesticide spray schedule for 

only one of the two pest management plans will allow you to compare a 

management plan using pesticides to a plan not using pesticides. 

Each plan is simulated individually and is identified as either Plan A or Plan B 

by selecting " 1 " or "2" from menu I {C 1). 
SPRAY ORCHARD 

ESTABLISH SPRAY APPLICATIONS ENTER 

Application Methods 

Apply spray to Plan A 1 

Apply spray to Plan B 2 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu C 

Accept Current Values A 

After selecting the plan, you can choose the method of pesticide application on 

the next menu display (I (C2)). The method selected will reflect differences in 

the costs and efficacy of application by fixed-wing aircraft, rotary-wing aircraft, 

air-blast sprayers, mist blowers, or hydraulic sprayers. 

CHOOSE OPTION 

Aerial Application by: 

Fixed-wing aircraft 

Rotary-wing aircraft 

Ground Application by: 

Airblastormistblower 3 

Hydraulic sprayer 

Cancel, Return to Previous Ptenu C 
Spray Schedules You can select a spray schedule from one of SeedCalc's four default schedules 

or you can design a custom schedule. Default spray schedules can be modified 

by deleting individual spray applications. The spray schedule selected will 

determine the eficacy of pesticide applications simulated over a 2-year period. 

Four conventional spray schedules using up to two of the following insecticides 

serve as defaults: acephate, malathion, azinphosmethyl, Bacillus thuringiemis 

Berliner, or fenvalerate. Estimates of the efficacy of each application are 

supplied. In SeedCalc, only one pesticide application can be made per month. 

SeedCalc uses monthly average values for the efficacy of pesticides taken from 

the literature and unpublished sources. The day of the month is not considered 

in SeedCalc because local weather conditions, pest and plant phenology, and 

other factors will affect the specific date of application. The option "custom 

spray schedule" allows you to specify monthly use of different pesticides 

throughout the 23-month period of strobilus development. When custom spray 

schedules are designed, the program will attempt to apply default estimates for 

the efficacy of each proposed pesticide application. If default values are not 

available for a proposed pesticide application, SeedCalc will request that you 

enter estimates for taae efficacy of the proposed application. 

The use of either a conventional spray schedule or a custom spray schedule is 

selected from the next menu (I (C3)). 

I (C31 

CHOOSE OPTION 

SPRAY ORCHARD 

ESTABLISH PESTICIDES FOR PLAN A ENTER 

- 

Use a conventional schedule 1 

Custom spray schedule 3 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu C 

El 

.A 
Conventional Spray 

Schedtlle 

Selecting the option to "Use a conventional spray schedule" 

from Menu I (C3) will produce menu I (C4). 

SPRAY ORCHARD 

USE A CONVENTIONAL SCHEDULE FOR PLAN A ENTER 

Select one of the pesticide spray schedules: 

Az i nphosrnethyl 

Bacillus thuringiensis 

Fenvalerate 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu 

After you select a pesticide, a conventional spray schedule for that pesticide in 

slash pine seed orchards will be listed in menu I (CS}. 

I CC53 

SPRAY ORCHARD 

THE CONVENTIONAL SCHEDULE FOR PLAN A 

(The same schedule is applied for 2 years) 

January Malathion 

February Malathion 

March 

Apr i 1 Azinphosmethyl 

May Azinphosmethyl 

June Azinphosmethyl 

July Azinphosmethyl 

August Azinphosmethyl 

Do you want to accept this conventional schedule? Y/X 

[I a 
If you accept the conventional schedule, enter "Y" in menu I {C5), and the 

program will return to menu I {Cl). If you do not accept the conventional 

schedule, enter "N," and the program will proceed to modified menu I {C3). 

CHOOSE OPTION 

SPRAY ORCHARD 

ESTABLISH PESTICIDES FOR PLAN A 

Use a conventional schedule 

Delete spray(s1 from a 

conventional schedule 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu C 

You can return to menu I (C4) to select a different conventional schedule by 

entering " 1, " or you can customize by deleting individual applications of the 

conventional schedule by selecting "2" and proceeding to menu I ((26). 

CHOOSE OPTION 

SPRAY ORCHARD 

DELETE SPRAYS FROM CONVENTIONAL SCHEDULE 

P P 

January Malathion January Malathion 

February Malathion February Malathion 

August Azinphosmethyl 
Selecting the "WARNING" screen presents the following message: 

When applications of pesticides are deleted for selected months, the numbers 

designating those months (month numbers) will be displayed in the lower half of 

the menu. When you finish modifying (deleting month spray applications) the 

conventional spray schedule, enter "A" to select the option "When finished 

modifying values" to proceed to menu I (C 10). 

Enter the Expected Values for Percent Reductions in Seed Damage 

for each of the following factors: 

Empty seed 

Seed bug damaged seed 

Seedworrn damaged seed 

Seed damaged by unknown factors 4 

% Change in number of seed/cone 5 

Accept Current Values 

ENTER CODE El ENTER % REDUCTION EXPECTED [-I 

You can enter expected values for seed damage resulting from different factors 

in menu I (ClO}. The code for a factor (1 through 4) is entered and followed 

by an estimate of the percent reduction in seed yield associated with that factor. 

The values entered are displayed in a third col of menu I {C10}. SeedCalc 

will substitute default values for those left unmodified. When you have 

completed all changes, enter "A" to select option "Accept Current Values" and 

return to menu I {C 1). 
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CHOOSE OPTION 

SPRAY ORCHARD 

DESIGN A SPRAY SCHEDULE 

1 January Malathion 

2 February Malathion 

Azinphosmethyl 

Do you want to make any changes? [I Y/N 

Y = change, add, or delete sprays 

N = continue (go to next menu) 

You can enter "Y" to change or delete any of the individual sprays included in a 

custom design or to add individual sprays to the schedule. The lower portion of 

the menu (beneath the line) will change according to the options you select. All 

changes are displayed in the upper portion of the menu as you make them. The 

different lower portions of menu I (C8) follow. 

I 

Do you want to make any changes? [I Y/N 

Y = change, add, or delete sprays 

N = continue (go to next menu) 

If "Y" is selected, the lower portion of the menu will change. 

1 

Change Record R Delete record D 

Add Record A Cancel C [I 

If "R" is selected to "Change Record, " the lower portion of the menu changes, 

requesting month number and pesticide choice. 
If "A" is selected to "Add Record," the lower portion of the menu will ask you 

to pair an additional month (nmber) and pesticide. 

I 

additional pesticide choice 

es t i c i de code nunber 13 

If a "D" is selected to "Delete Record," the lower portion of the menu will 

change and you can enter the month (number) to delete. 

I 

Enter month nder for which applicstion is to be deleted 

Month 1-3 

When each entry is completed, the lower portion of the menu reverts to the 

original I {C8} format. 

I 

Do you want to make any changes? l-3 Y/N 

Y = change, add, or delete sprays 

N - continue (go to next menu) 

When all changes have been made, you can select "N" and continue to the next 

menu. 

If your changes include spray applications with no default values for the 

efficacy of a pesticide, the program will proceed to menu I {C9). This menu 

will prompt you to enter estimates of the expected percentage reduceom in 

amck rates of different pests during specific months. Menu I {C9} is repeated 

for each instance where changes in spray schedules are not supported by default 

values. 
CHOOSE OPTION 

SPRAY ORCHARD 

DESIGN A SPRAY SCHEDULE 

Empirical data for the efficacy of the following 

application is not currently available: 

Month 1 Spray = Azinphosmethyl 

Enter estimated % reduction (0 to 100) 

in attack rates during month 1 due to 

an application of Azinphosmethyl for: 

Slash Pine Flower Thrips 1-1 

Note: Zero data can be entered by simply pressing the ENTER key 

SeedCalc also presents Menu I {C10) as a follow-up to menu 1 (C9). Expected 

values are requested for percent reductions in seed damage corresponding to 

custom spray schedules when published empirical data is unavailable. As each 

code and percentage combination is entered, the expected percent reduction is 

displayed in a third column. When you have completed all desired changes, 

enter "A" to return to menu I {Cl). At this point in the program, the other 

plan may be selected for a second pest management strategy. 
Modifying Cone and Return to menu I {M2) and you can view menu I {Sl) by selecting "Orchard 

Seed Factors Parameters. " In menu I {S 1) you can modify the default distribution of 

strobilus stages over a 23-month period and the parameters for seed quality and 

quantity. If necessary, you can reset the modified values or distributions to the 

default values for slash pine. 

Ilistribution of 

Cone Stages 

Morphological Stages of Strobili 

Qua1 i ty/Quant i ty of Seed 

Enter 

Modify Parameters 

Distribution of Strobilus Stages 1 

Parameters for Seed 2 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu C 

Accept Current Values A 

Menu I (S2) presents the default distribution of strobilus stages. 

MODIFY DISTRIBUTION FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF DIFFERENT 

MORPHOLOGICAL STAGES OF FEMALE STROBILI 

DEFAULT DISTRIBUTION 

Month No. 

Stage Begins Ends 

- - 

Bud 0 0.5 Specify new distribution 

F 1 ower 0 2 Cancel, restore default 

Earlyconelet 3 5 distribution 

Late conelet 7 9 Continue to next menu 

Cone 12 13 

Green cone 17 19 

Ripe cone 20 21 

Open cone 22 23 

Note: New distributions will replace the defaults for future simulations. 

The defaults, however, can be restored by entering 2. 
Three options are provided: 

"Specify new distribution" proceeds to menu I (SCl) where you can modify 

the distribution of morphological stages for both plans simultaneously. 

* "'Restore default distribution" deletes any changes you made to the 

distribution of morphological stages for both plans and restores the default 

distribution. 

* "Continue to next menu" continues without prompting you to modify the 

distribution. 

MODIFY DISTRIBUTION FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF DIFFERENT 

MORPHOLOGICAL STAGES OF FEMALE STROBILI 

DEFAULT DISTRIBUTION 

Month No. 

Stage Begins Ends 

Bud 0 0.5 

F 1 ower 0 2 

Early conelet 3 5 

Late conelet 7 9 

Cone 12 13 

Green cone 17 19 

Ripe cone 20 21 

Open cone 22 23 

Enter Month Number 

that each stage: 

Begins Ends 

Year: 1 2 

Jan 1 13 

Feb 2 14 

Mar 3 15 

Apr 4 16 

May 5 17 

Jun 6 18 

Jul 7 19 

Aug 8 20 

Sep 9 21 

Oct 10 22 

Nov 11 23 

New numbers representing months (entered to the nearest tenth of a month) for 

each morphological stage of strobilus development listed must be entered. As 

you enter each month number, the entry brackets [ ] will move forward to 

the next month, prompting you to enter data until you complete the new table in 

the center of the screen. 
Brametem for Seed 

MODIFY DISTRIBUTION FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF DIFFERENT 

MORPHOLOGICAL STAGES OF FEMALE STROBlLI 

Begins Ends 

- - 

10.23 10.61 

c0.21 1 2 I 

Earlyconelet 3 C21 161 

Late conelet t-7-1 1-10-1 

1-1 2-1 E-141 

Green cone C-16-1 1-1 8-1 

1-19-1 1-21.51 

1-22] 1-23-1 

Do you want to change any of the values entered? 1-1 Y/N 

Wen you be made all entries, a prompt will appear at the bottom of ihe 

screen allowing you to change the monthly values just entered. If you select 

"Y" (yes), the prior monthly values will be erased, and new values can be 

entered. If you select "N" (no), the program will return to menu I (Sl). At 

this point, you can accept (A) or cancel (C) the modified distribution of 

morphological stages of (1) strobili or modify the parameters for seed (2). 

If you select "Parameters for Seed, " the program will proceed to menu I (S3). 
CHOOSE OPTION 

CHANGE SEED VALUES 

CHANGE PARAMETERS FOR SEED VALUES IN: 

Plan A 1 

Plan B 2 

Change both plans 3 

Continue simulation C 

You may modify the default values for seed quality and quantity by selecting 

Plan A, Plan B, or both plans, and the program will proceed to menu I {S4). 

CHANGE SEED VALUES 

Potential No. seed/cone 170 

Total No. seed/cone 

% Extracted from cones 66 

% Germination failure 

Other insects 

Unknown factors C-1 Enter code 

Ehch of the values listed can be modified by enkring the appropriate code 

nmbr and, when additional entry brackets appear, a new value. For 

example, to change the potential number of seeds per cone from 170 to 160 and 

the percentage of seed bug-damaged seed from 10.2 to 8.5, you enter code 

number " 1 " first. When an additional set of bracke& appears, you enter the 
value 160. Next, you enter the code number "3" and the 8.5 percentage figure 

for seed bug damage. When you have completed modifications, enter "C" in 

the input brackets to return to menu I {S3}, where you enter "C" to return to 

menu I {Sl). 

You can once again select any option in menu I {S 1). When you choose the 

"Accept Current Values" option, the current values for the distribution of 

strobilus stages and parameters for seed are written into temporary files and the 

program returns to menu I {M2}. 

View or Print Results When you select the option "Accept Current Values" from menu I {MZ}, the 

program will execute the Simulate, Outdata, and Print modules and display 

menu I {02). 

VIEU RESULTS OF THE SIMULATIONS I 

Results of simulation 

Display on: 

Screen Printer 

Causes of Cone Damage .......... 1 2 

Cone Life Table .............. 3 4 

Cone Survival Curve ............ 5 6 

Distributions of Cones: 

Healthy Cones ............. 7 8 

Live Damaged Cones .......... 9 10 

Dead, Previously Damaged Cones .... 11 12 

Orchard Status Table ........... 13 14 

Seed Analysis ............... 15 16 

LEAVE THIS PROGRAM --> Economic Analysis ... R 

You can select any code number (1 through 16) to view the results on the screen 

or to print them on a printer. When you finish viewing or printing the results, 

select "R" for "LEAVE THIS PROGRAM -- > Economic Analysisw to display 

menu I {El} and begin an economic analysis and comparison of the two 

management plans simulated. 
Economic Analysis Estimates of pesticide application costs are presented for each plan in menu I 

{El). Zeros are listed in the cost per acre colu when no pesticides are 

for either plan. If pesticides were used, a default cost is displayed in the cost 

per acre colum. 

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 

Change vatues(s) as needed by entering the appropriate nunber 

Costs are suggested per your application design 

PLAN COST/ACRE 

Pesticide A €3 PLAN A PLAN B 

160 

Azinphosmethyl 2 70 

Bacillus thzzringiensis 3 80 

Fenvalerate 4 90 

5 10 0 

Finished with entries 

Cancel, Return to Previous Menu Q 

Pesticide No. 1-1 

These values can be modified by entering a code number for a listed pesticide 

(1 through 10). The default cost per acre will appear in the lower right side of 

the menu, and you can enter a new cost per acre. The new cost will be offset in 

the cost per acre column to remind the user of the new value. These changes 

are temporary and apply only to the current simulation. 

Select "Finished with entries" to continue to menu I {E2} where you may enter 

additional pesticide application costs. Costs, such as spray adjuvants, labor, and 

equipment, are entered as summed totals per acre. 
I CE23 

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 

Additional costs can also be entered to better estimate 

the costs of your pest management program. 

You my enter any SUMMED total of additional costs. 

Enter additional s costslacre: C -1 For Plan A 

Press the RETURN or ENTER key with or without cost entry 

NOTE: An entry is required for Plan A and then Plan B 

me program v\iill then display a series of tables listing the results of the 

economic analysis. This analysis includes estimates for harvest yields of cones 

and seeds on a per acre and total orchard basis, a su ary of the pesticide 

applications used for Plans A and B, and comparative costs per germinable seed 

for Plans A and B to illushale eke relative economic gains acfiieved throu& the 

different management choices. 

Four optiomzs are preserakd at the bottom of the last able: 

@ "Restart Analysis" rehum to menu I {El], substitutes new cost figures, and 

restarts the economic analysis. This can be done as often as desired for the two 

current mamgement plans. 

@ "Main Menu" deleks all temporary modifications perlaining to the errrrent 

amlysis and returns to ahe propam" opening menu. 

@ "Rinit a Report" pin& a report OIB the ecomrmic: amlysis, 

@ ""Exit to DO%" ests .ebe MS-DOS prompt, 

Select "Print a Report" to view menu I {E6) and enter general informafion for a 

report heailer. 
How SeedCalc Works 

Files 

Sinoulation Process 

ORCHARD AND MANAGER IDENTIFICATION 

Enter the following information: 

Company or Organization C 

Orchard Name or Number C 

Species of pine 

Do you want to change entries? Y/N 

A sample report is illustrated in Appendix I. 

Sixteen permanent data files (those with the filename extension -.DAT) 

containing default values for the system are provided with SeedCalc. The 

integrity of the -.DAT files is maintained by transferring them to temporary 

files (those with the filename extension -.SIM) before entering user-modified 

values. The -.SIM files can be modified but are temporary because 

SeedCalc resets them to the default values permanently stored as .DAT files 

at the beginning of each simulation. For example, when the pesticide 

azinphosmethyl is used in a simulation, data is copied from the GUTH.DAT file 

into the DCIDE.SIM file. If you modify the default values, the new usermodified values replace the values present in the DCIDE.SIM file, while those 

in the GUTH.DAT file remain unchanged. Permanent changes to the 

permanent data files C.DAT files) can be effected by using supplementary 

program modules. 

The simulation process is partially depicted in figure 3 for three outcomes of 

coneworm attack: (1) death of the strobili within a short period of time, (2) 

death of the strobili during a later stage of development, or (3) deformity of 

strobili with subsequent reduced amounts of seed. To simplify figure 3, months 

have been compressed and replaced with a few morphological stages of 

strobilus development as described by Croker (1971). The initial number of 

flower buds (the ''source" of initial strobili) entered by the user for a simuiation 

is stored in the data file COMM.DAT. "State variables" represent the total 

number of strobili present during each stage of development. "Sinks" are 

repositories used to accumulate seed or dead strobili. 
Figure 3-Simplified simulation for coneworm damage to strobili of slash pine. The numbers of strobili that flow out of state variables are determined 

by age-specific-flow equations. Healthy strobili killed during the same interval flow into a sink for mortality of healthy strobili. Nonlethally damaged 

stmbili pass into state variables for conewormdamaged strobili and may later pass into a sink for mortality of damaged aitrobili, Seed yields of 

damaged strobili are decreased before passing into the sink for viable seed. 

As SeedCalc simulates the development of strobili, they progress from the 

source value through a series of state variables and end in sinks for dead cones 

and sinks for viable seed. One set of the state variables accounts for healthy 

strobili. As long as the strobili remain healthy, they progress through this set of 

state variables as they mature from flowers to open cones. However, when 

strobili are damaged by pests or other factors, they either pass into a second set 

of state variables for damaged strobili or accumulate in a sink for mortality of 

healthy strobili. 

VARIAELE 

In figure 3, healthy strobili attacked and killed by coneworms in the same 

month accumulate directly into the sink for mortality of healthy cones. Healthy 

strobili that receive nonlethal. attacks accumulate in the set of state variables for 

coneworm-damaged strobili. Coneworm-damaged strobili that die during a 

later stage of development accumulate in the sink for mortality of damaged 

strobili. The yields of seed from nonlethally damaged strobili are reduced by an 

Coneworm 

damaged 

conelet s 

. Healthy 

conelets 

SINK 

Damaged 

strobilus 

mortality 

Coneworm Healthy . 

damaged cones 

cones 

Viable Viable 

seed seed 

I I 

I I 

SINK 

Healthy 

strobilus 

mortality 
Program Modules 

Graphics 

Starting SeedCalc 

Opening Menu 

appropriatt: amount when they flow from the state variable for conewormdamaged strobili into the sink for viable seed. For conewosms, this reduction 

may be as high as 75 percent of the seed expected from healthy cones or 100 

percent when damaged or distorted strobili are not collected in the field. The 

system is conservative in that all initial strobili (or their equivalents in seed) can 

be accounted for ihroughout the simulation process by summing the nurzlbers 

present in the state variables and sinks. 

In SeedCalc, different sets of state variables account for different causes of 

damage because the type of initial damage may affect subsequent morali~ rates 

of strobili and expected yields of seed. Consequently, different rates of pest 

attack and pest-induced mortality are applied to strobili in each of the state 

variables. 

SeedCalc provides estimates of seobilus and seed production, pest damage, and 

the efficacy of pest management strategies innposed in 6wo simulated 

management plam. mese estimates are produced Ithrougk interac~om of 14 

system modules as illustrated in fipre 2, Modular prognra 

were used in developing SeedCalc to facilitae coding, &s~8a&f, modiQing, and 

upda~ng programming straem. 

In this section, we describe how the individual system modules operate and 

provide illustrations for management Plan A; similar processes for Plan B result 

in arrays and variables prefixed with " N. " For example, the array 

MORT(23,4) (described on page 38) contains estimates for the mortality of 

seobili used in Plan A; array NMORT(23,4) contains similar estimates but is 

used in Plan B. 

Tlrre Grap~cs mdde ( 

configuration of SeedCalc to use the maximum graphics capability of a user's 

computer system. Selecting the highest graphics capability provides a better 

display of SeedCalc's screen information. Incompatibility of some graphic 

cards can be minimized by selecting the option "A: Monochrome (MDA) for 

low resolution text only" from the menu for manual installation. When the 

graphics installation is completed, the necessary values are stored in the 

COMM.DAT file. 

me SeedCalc module (SEEDCmC,EZ) will sbrt SeedCalc (akr it is 

im&lled the first ~nne), me prsgam versim waamber is displayed, as well as 

iden~ficaiun of he. program process, i.e,, i~~a~ng a simala~on, ob8ai~ng 

system informaeon, or exjiling to DOS, 

me Choice module (CHOICE,E=) diree& program execu~on to the 

inzkrac~ve: prsgam (Main Module), to tihe &torial (DEMO-Ern), or to DOS 

(to leave the SeedCaIc sysenra). 
Supplementary 

Momation 

The Informalion module (INFO-Em) provides information describing 

SeedCalc's general smcture, hardware and software requirements, and how to 

conact the programmers; and it allows return to the main menu. 

Entering Orchard Size The Orchard Size module (MAIN.EXE) prompts keyboard entry of the initial 

number of female strobili and the number of acres used in a simulation. These 

two values are stored as the variables LIVE$ and ACRES$ in the COMM.SIM 

file. This module also transfers default data from the permanent files to the 

temporary files used for each simulation. An error message will indicate when 

any of SeedCalc's permanent files are missing from the directory. 

Once the initial data are stored, several management choices are available. The 

pest damage rates module (PEST.EXE), pesticide applications module 

(CHEM.EXE), and orchard parameters modules (SURVEY EXE and 

CH_SFMO.EXE) can be used to change SeedCalc's default values before 

running the full simulation. Wen all changes are completed, the program 

writes several variables to the COMM.SIM and other .SIM files and 

proceeds to the simulation module (SIMULATE. Em)- 

The Pest Damage module (PEST-Em) provides for modification of the default 

values used to simulate monthly injury and mortality rates for strobili. The 

default values are copied from the MORT.DAT, ATTACKDAT, and 

ATMORT.DAT files and are stored as arrays (MORT(23,4), NMORT(23,4), 

ATK(23,4), NATK(23,4)), and MORT. ATK(23,4). The values in these arrays 

can be modified by the user and stored as either temporary ( .SIM) or 

permanent (.DAT) files for later use. 

Data stored in the .SIM and .DAT files represent monthly rates of pest 

attack and pest-caused mortality of strobili . The system acconunodates damage 

percentages for each of four pest categories: (1) slash pine flower thrips, (2) 

coneworms, (3) unidentified insects, and (4) unknown factors. Any 

combination of modified rates of attack and mortality can be entered. 

Combinatiom of percentages entered by user 

Attacks Mortality No. of categories 

Yes Yes 1-4 

Yes No 1-4 

No Yes 1-4 

No No 1-4 

SeedCalc's response to different combimtiom of user-entered attack and 

mortality perwages follows: 

@ When percentages for either new attack or mortality rates are entered alone, 

the proportion of change from the default rate to the new rate is calculated and 
used to modify the default values of the missing rate. For example, when an 

attack rate is entered, then mortality rate = (new attack percent/old attack 

percent) x old percent mortality. 

* When percentages for both attack and mortality rates are entered for a given 

pest category, both percentages are used. 

* When neither attack nor mortality percentages are entered, the new arrays 

will contain the original default values. If zero data is intentionally entered for 

a pest category, the zeros are maintained as values for the new rates. 

The proportions of previously attacked strobili that die each month cannot be 

modified because we assumed that these proportions remain the same as those in 

the default distribution. 

Damage rates can be modified on a monthly or global (total) basis. Monthly 

modifications require entry of a month number and the percentages of strobili 

attacked and killed by category. The system replaces default percentages for 

attack and mortality rates with the newly entered percentages for the category 

selected. Default distributions of other categories are not affected unless 

specifically selected for change. Global modifications are made by entering 

estimates of the total rates of attack and mortality for a 23-month period. These 

percentages are based on the initial number of strobili in the orchard at 

flowering (similar to the 100 rx column of life tables). SeedCalc distributes 

these new percentages over a 23-month period so that they parallel the default 

distributions for rates of attack and mortality. The new distributions of damage 

are similar to default distributions, but they reflect the changed rates of 

mortality and attacks entered for each pest category selected. It is assumed that 

the proportions of previously attacked strobili that die each month will be the 

same as those in the default distribution. 

We used survey data (Fatzinger and others 1980) collected from 1973-74 in a 

slash pine seed orchard to develop default values for pest damage. Pest damage 

simulation is illustrated with these values. The survey used monthly 

observations taken on a 20 percent random sample of strobifus clusters located 

in the crowns of 18 trees (9 clones x 2 ramets per clone) starting with a total of 

1,059 sample flower buds during January 1973 (table 1). Seed extracted from 

mature sample strobili (cones) were radiographed to determine the incidence 

and causes of damage and were germinated to determine seed viability. 

The probabilities of pest damage during different stages of strobilus 

development vary widely from orchard to orchard and from year to year. Pest 

damage on an individual orchard can probably be predicted more accurately 

using data from surveys of individual seed orchards. Using data from the IMS 

or the SPMS is recommended because the pprocedures in these systems control 

for diffierences in clonal variation. SeedCalc uses tabulated default values of the 

average proportions of cones and seed affected by pests and other factors as 

estimates from survey data taken in the Southeastern United States (Fatzinger 
and others 1980, 1990). These tabulations represent the proportions of cones 

remaining in an orchard at monthly intervals. In developing SeedCalc, we 

assumed that the proportion of cones attacked is independent of the nmber of 

cones present on the orchard trees. We also assumed that a cone protected 

from one destructive agent remains susceptible to attack by other agents as it 

passes through later developmental stages. 

Current mortality default values are listed in table 2 as the monthly proportions 

of healthy cones attacked and killed during the same month. Each proportion 

represents the number of cones killed each month by a pest divided by the 

number of healthy cones remaining on the trees during the previous month. For 

example, a total of 102 cones were killed during February of the first year--72 

cones were killed by thrips, 5 by other insects, and 25 by unknown factors. At 

the end of January (during the February observation) 883 cones remained in the 

sample (table 1). The proportion of the 883 cones killed during February by 

thrips was 72/883 = 0.082, by other insects was 5/883 = 0.005, and by 

unknown factors was 25/883 = 0.028 (table 2). 

Current damage default values are listed in table 3 as the monthly proportions of 

healthy cones attacked but not killed during the same month. These proportions 

represent the number of cones damaged each month divided by the number of 

healthy cones that remained the previous month. For example, 153 cones were 

attacked by thrips during February of the first year and 72 of these died. The 

proportion of damaged cones for February is (153-72)/883 = 0.092. 

Delayed mortality default values are listed in table 3 as the monthly proportions 

of previously damaged cones that either die from the previous injury or are 

killed directly by a second attack. The proportions of cones killed apply to the 

individual categories of damaged cones, i.e., "TAK" applies only to strobili 

previously attacked by thrips, "DM" applies only to strobili previously 

attacked by coneworn, etc. These proportions were calculated by dividing the 

numbers of previously attacked cones that died each month by the accumulated 

number of damaged live cones remaining the previous month. For example, 67 

of the cones previously damaged by thrips died during February. Because a 

total of 114 cow re in the state variable for cones 

67/114 = 0.588 is listed for "TAKn in the month of February of the first year. 

At cone ma~ty, the surviviw cones are converted intu seed e@valen& by 

muftiplying the number of healthy cones by the average nurnber of 

expM ta be present in a healthy cone. Proportiom of 

damaged cones depend on the average expected seed loss from different agents. 

The four catc:gories representing causes for seed losses in SeedCalc follow: 

TKS = ~ps killed 

DICS = mrtewom killed 

IKS = other insect killed 
The amount of seed obtained from both healthy and damaged cones is further 

reduced by the average proportion of seed lost during the 

process. Representation of seed lost during extraction in SeedCalc follows: 

E = SF + EF + UF 

where 

E = average proportion of seed lost during extraction to all factors, 

SF = proportion of unopened scales, 

EF = proportion lost due to the extraction method, and 

UF = proportion lost to mom factors. 

The total number of viable seed is estimated by applying a nonviable seed factor 

to the total number of seed extracted. Calculating the nonviable seed factor, 

representing the average proportions of extracted seed damaged, follows: 

Z = SK + LK + UK 

where 

2 = average proportion of extracted seed lost to all factsrs, 

SK = proportion lost to seed bugs, 

LK = proportion lost to seedworms (Qdia spp., formerly %aspeyresh), ad 

UM = proportion lost to wn. factors. 

The default values used in SeedCalc for seed quality follow: 

Factor Default value 

m 

Dm 

IKS 

UKS 

POT 

Y 

EK 

GF 
Pesticide Application Three prirmry as tions underlie the simulation of pesticide applications in 

SzedCalc: (1) pesticide efficacy varies between species of pests and seasons of 

application; (2) these differences result in Bifferential rates of control for each 

pest, e.g., a February application of malathion may result in 50 percent control 

of hips but only a 10 percent control of conewoms; and (3) a pesticide will 

ival and pest attack rates only during the month of application. 

The Pesticide Application module (CHEM.EXE) is used to modify default 

values stored in several of SeedCalcfs data files. These modifiable files are 

used to simulate the efficacy of different pesticides and methods of application. 

The default values are averages of monthly estimates for the efficacy of 

pesticides derived primarily from the literature, unpublished studies, and 

surveys. Only a few estimates of the monthly efficacy of pesticides for control 

of cone and seed insects were available in the literature. Most references 

provided estimates of the overall effectiveness of different pesticides in reducing 

damage to cones and seed over a 1- or 2-year period. 

Array ECONeCHEM$(25,2) is created by the Pesticide Application Module and 

is stored in temporary file ECON.SIM. This array contains 25 elements of 

idonnation about Plans A and B. The first 23 elements represent a list of the 

pesticides selected and the months during which each pesticide is applied for a 

particular simulation. The method selected for applying pesticides is stored in 

array element 25. 

The values in file SEED1.DAT and SEED2.DAT are used to modify the default 

values for quality and quantity of seed expected from untreated trees of slash 

pine. User modifications of this data either by simulation of pesticide 

applications or by entry of new values for seed quality and quantity are stored in 

files SEED 1 .SIM and SEED2.SIM. Default values for the effects of pesticides 

on the quality and quantity of seed were taken from the literature and results of 

unpublished studies (tables 4-6) and are summarized in table 7. 
Estimates of the percent reductions in rates of monthly pest damage attributable 

to pest management Plan A are stored in the first 23 elements of array 

DCIDE(25,4). Default values for DCIDq25,4) are taken from the pe 

storage files ASANDAT, BT.DAT, CYTH.DAT, GUTH.DAT, and 

0RTH.DAT. The array DCIDE(25,4) is transferred to the temporary data file 

DCIDE.SIM. The values in these arrays equal zero when no pesticide 

applications are made. The values stored in DCIDE.SIM are used to replace 

array DCIDE(25,4) values in subsequent modules of SeedCalc. The 

reproduced array is then used to modifl the values of arrays MORT(23,4) and 

ATK(23,4) : 

where 

ATK(23,4) and MORT(23,4) are arrays containing estimates of the percentages 

of strobili attacked and filled, respectively, for Plan A during each of 23 

monthly periods. 

1-DCIDE(1-23,1-4) represents the first 23 elements of array DCIDE(25,4) for 

Plan A, each of which is subtracted from 1 before its use in modifying the 

attack and mortality rates for survival of strobili. 

DCIDE(25,l) is the 25th element of the array for Plan A that contains estimates 

of the effectiveness of a particular method of pesticide application. 

Values in the permanent storage files ASAN.DAT, BT.DAT, CYTH-DAT, 

GUTH.DAT, and 0RTH.DAT reflect the average efficacy of five pesticides 

for control of cone and seed insects: 

Data Array contained 

storage file in file Pesticide 

ASAN.DAT ASAN(23,4) env vale rate' 

BT.DAT BT(23,4) B, thuringiemis 

CYTH.DAT CYTH(23,4) Mdathion 

GUTH.DAT GUTH(23,4) Azinphosmethyl 

0RTH.DAT ORTH(23,4) Acephate 

' At the time SeedCalc was developed, monthly data about the efficacy of synthetic pyrethroids was available only for the insecticide 

fenvalerate. 
Each array contains 23 monthly estimators for the efficacy of the pesticide in 

reducing mortality caused by thrips, coneworn, unidentified insects, and 

wn factors. This efficacy data was taken fiom ries of the literature 

and the results of qublished studies and surveys (tables 8-1 1). 

The user specifies pesticide applications on a monthly basis either by entering 

the month number for each application accompanied by the pesticide to be used 

(= custom design) or by selecting a conventional spray schedule that assigns a 

month number for each application of the pesticide selected. The conventional 

schedule can be modified by deleting individual applications. The array 

DCIDE(25,4) is then compiled using the default or modified values present in 

the pesticide arrays. These default values, which apply only to the month when 

the pesticide is applied, are listed in tables 12-16. 

The default values used in SeedCalc for the efficacy of pesticides are estimates 

for hydraulic sprayer applications. These are further modified in the program 

when application methods other than hydraulic spraying are selected. Few 

studies have compared the relative efficacy of the different methods of pesticide 

application in southern pine seed orchards. To simulate the effect of using 

different methods of application, we obtained average values of the relative 

efficacy of different application methods from the literature and the results of 

unpublished studies (table 17). 

Relationships of the efficacy for different methods of pesticide applications 

developed for use in SeedCalc follow: 

Average Efficacy 

Method % R~ ratio 

Hydraulic sprayer 89.7647 1.00 

Mistblower 75.5455 .84 

Aerial sprayer 65.2500 .73 

30verall avemges for percent control (see table 17). 
Cone and Seed lF"actors This module (SURW,EXE) can be used to mdfy the simdaed phenology 

of female stmbilus development by interfacing with module CH_SmO.EXE 

and by modifying seed parameters. Eight morphological stages of development 

for female strobili are represented in SeedCalc: (1) flower buds, (2) flowers, 

(3) early conelets, (4) late conelets, (5) cones, (6) green cones, (7) ripe cones, 

and (8) open (harvested or collected) cones, SeedCalc &ach the development 

of female strobili through these eight stages according to the monay 

disbribution of default values in file STAGERBAT: 

Month No. 

Begins Ends 

Stage (TI ) (T2 ) 

Bud 0 0.5 

Flower 0 2 

Early conelet 3 5 

Late conelet 7 9 

Cone 12 13 

Green cone 17 19 

Ripe cone 20 21 

Open cone 22 23 

The distribution of these values can be "permanently" changed for both plans by 

mdifying the default values in file STAEER.DAT. The default values, 

however, can be restored by copying the BICSTAGER.DAT file into the 

STAGER.DAT file. 

The development of strobili througb each of the ei&t mo~hological stages of 

development is assumed to follow a piece-wise linear fundon: 

SF 1 .O 

(Probabi 1 i ty 

of changing .5 

develomntel 

stages) 0 

a1 7 2 

TIME (7 or Honth) 

where 

T = Current month nunnber (1 - 23), 

T, = Month number at which st;i.ge of sr~robilus developma begisls, ad 

T2 = Manth nmber at which stage of s&obilus development ends. 
The probability of change before time T1 is zero. Morphological changes occur 

during the time interval T, to T,, but the change is not assumed to be 

instantaneous. At the end of the time interval, i. e., after T2, the probability of 

change will return to zero until the time interval for changing to a subsequent 

morphological stage is reached: 

B F EC L C CS GC RC OC 

Probabi 1 i ty 1.0 

of 

change .5 

0 

months NDJFMAMJJA SONDJFMAMJJASO 

month numbers 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 

Time, in months 

where 

B = flower buds, 

F = flowers, 

EC = early conelets, 

LC = late conelets, 

CS = cone stage, 

GC = green cones, 

RC = ripe cones, and 

OC = open (harvested or collected) cones. 

The formulae for generating changes from one morphological stage to the next 

as strobili pass through the 23 monthly state variables follow: 

where 

SF = Stage Factor used to assign morphological stages of development. 

The default values for T, and T2 are the beginning and ending months, 

respectively. 

It is assumed that the cones are collected at the end of the ripe cone stage and 

that the seed are extracted imdately after cone collection: 

If < T,, SF = 0 

If TI <=T<=T2,SF= 1.0 

If T>T2,SF=0 
Simulate Results 

Strobili are converted to equivalents after they reach the last stage of 

development. The following seed parameters can be modified for either or both 

plans: 

Potential No. seed per cone 

Total No. seed per Gone 

% Seed bug 

% Empty 

% Seedworm 

% Unknown 

% Extracted from cones 

% Germination failure 

% Unextracted seed in cones damaged by 

Thrips 

Coneworms 

Other insects 

Unknown factors 

Data stored in temporary files C.SIM files) are recalled in the Simulation 

module (SIMULATE.EB) to modify default rates of strobilus damage and 

mortality. Information for different formulations of Plans A and B was entered 

and stored in these temporary files during operations of the Pest Damage Rate 

module, the Pesticide Application module, and the Orchard Parameter module. 

The default rates represent "average" strobilus damage without pest 

management. The modifications of these default rates represent the different 

user formulations of management Plans A and B. 

The rates in the pest damage arrays are modified by rates in the DCIDE.SIM 

file, which contains estimates for efficacy of pesticide applications. 

where 1 

MORT(23,4) = s&obilus mortality rates, Plan A 

DCIDE(23,4) = efficacy of pesticide 

DCIDE(25,l) = efficacy of pesticide application method 

ATK(23,4) = strobilus damage rates, Plan A 

Note: For a detailed explanation of these arrays see the section on "Pesticide 

Applications Module. " 
Morphological stages of female strobilus development (Croker 1971) are 

assigned to each of the 23 months of strobilus development as described in the 

section on cone and factors. The number of strobili injured or killed each 

month are calculated for each of four categories: (1) thrips, (2) conewonns, 

(3) other insects, and (4) unlmown. The following is an example of the 

calcdations for the slash pine flower thrips. 

Calculations for thrips (J = 1): 

TAK(I) = MORT. ATK(I, J) x TA(I - 1) 

TAG) ATK(1, J) x HELTHY(I - 1) - TAK(I) + TAG - 1) 

TD(1) = MORT@, J) x HELTHYO - 1) 

MTA(1) = ATIS@, J) x HELTHY(I - 1) + 'ZT)(I) 

where 

I = month number 

J = factor number (for thrips, J = 1) 

TAK(1) = number of dead strobili previously damaged by thrips 

TA(I) = number of thy strobili attacked but not killed by thrips 

TD(1) = number of healthy strobili attacked and killed by thrips 

MTA(1) = number of thrips attacks (lethal + nonlethal) 

HELTHY(1) = number of healthy strobili 

MORT@,J) = proportions of healthy strob'i dying during month I due to 

factor J 

ATK(1,J) = proportion of healthy strobili injured during month I by factor J 

MORT. ATK(I, J) = proportions of previously damaged strobili dying during 

month I due to factor J 

The same calculations are preformed for the effects of the other three factors on 

the conditions and numbers of strobili. Note that the D indicates conewonns, 

the I indicates insects, and the U indicates unknown factors. 

Calcdations for conewom (J = 2): 

Calculations for other insects (J = 3): 
Calculations for wn factors (J = 4): 

The total numbers of healthy, injured, and dead strobili are estimated over all 

damage categories at monthly intervals. 

SUM.MORT.ATK(1) = TAK(1) + DAK(I) + IAW) + UAK(1) 

SUM.ATK.LIW1) = TA@) + DA(I) + IA(I) + UAO) 

SUM.MORT@) = TD(1) + DD(I) + ID(1) + UD(I) 

MSUM.Am.LI'VIE(1) = MTAO 

TOT.DEAD(1) = SUM.MORT(1) 

HELTHY(1) = EELTHY(I - 1) + 

SUM.Am.LIW 

EIvE(1) == ITHLrnYO; 

CSINK = CSIW + S 

DCSIldM = DCSINM d- S 

PC .SURV(I) = LIVE@) / LIWX x 100 

AGC.DEAD(I) = CSINK + DCSINlK 

SUM.MORT.ATK(1) = total number of previously injured strobili dying during 

month I 

SUM.ATK.LIVE(1) = total number of healthy strobili injured during month I 

SUM.MORT@) = total number of healthy strobili killed during month I 

MSUM.ATK.LIVE(1) = total number of healthy strobili attacked during month 

I (lethal + nonlethal attacks) 

TOT.DEAD(1) = total number dead strobili at month I 

LIW(1) = total number of live strobili (healthy + injured) 

CSINK = total number of healthy strobili injured and dying the same month 

DCSINK = total number of strobili injured during one month but dying during 

a later month 

PC.SURV(1) = gercent ival of strobili at monh I 

ACC.DEAD(1) = total number of dead strobili 
The calculation of quantity and quality of at the simdaa time of 

harvest follows. 

S.A.HC = WIELWY(23) x Y 

S.A.TC = TA(23) x TKS x Y 

S.A.DC = DA(23) x DKS x Y 

S.A.IC = IA(23) x IKS x Y 

S.A.UC = UA(23) x UKS x Y 

S.A.DAM = S.A.TC + S.A.DC + S.A.IC + S.A.UC 

S.E.HC = S.A.HC x (SF + EF + UF) 

S.E.DAM = S.A.DAM x (SF + EF + UF) 

S.V.HC = S.E.HC x (SK + LK + UK) 

S.V.DAM = S.E.DAM x (SK + LK + UK) 

S.TOT.V = S.V.HC + S.V.DAM 

where 

Y = number of seed per healthy cone 

- KS = proportion of seed lost in a strobilus damaged by 

TKS = thrips 

DKS = coneworms 

IKS = other insects 

UKS = unknown factors 

- F = proportion of seed lost during extraction to: 

SF = unopened scales 

EF = extraction method 

UF = unknown factors 

- K = proportion of extracted seed damaged by 

SK = seed bugs 

LK = seedworms 

UK = unknown factors 

S .A& = number of seed present in cones 

S. A.HC = healthy at harvest 

S. A.TC = damaged by thrips 

S.A.DC = damaged by conewoms 

S.A.IC - damaged by other insects 

S. A.UC = damaged by unknown factors 

S.A.DAM= damaged at harvest 

S.E.- = total number of seed lost during extraction of 

S.E.HC = healthy cones 

S.E.DAM= damaged cones 

S .V.- = total number of viable seed in 

S.V.HC = healthy cones 

S.V.DAM= damaged cones 

S.TOT.V= all cones 

The simulated data are then written to output files COMM-SIM, 

DCONE2.SIM, NCONE2.SIM, SEED 1. SIM, SEED2. SIM, and SEED3.SIM 

for use in other modules. 
The Outdata module (OUmATA-Em) is to prepare the results of 

simulations for management Plans A and B for viewing on the screen or sending 

to a printer. This module uses estimates produced by the Simulation Module to 

organize data suitable for the Printing Module. 

Information on the survival and darnage rates of strobili is calculated and stored I 

I 

in three arrays. 1 

I 

where 

I = month number 

J = Stage factor number (1-8) 

ORCH.LIVE(I,J) = No. live strobili by stage 

ORCH.ATT.LIVE(I, J) = No. newly attacked strobili by stage 

QRCW.Am.DEAD(I,J) = No. attackd strobili dying by stage 

STAG.FAC(I, J) = Stage factor for month I, stage J 

LIW(1) = fds. live strobili at month I 

SUM.AK.LIVE(I) = Total strobili attacked at month I 

SUM.MORT.ATK(1) = Total attacked strobili dying at month I 

Survival data is converted to mortality data for use in producing survival curves 

for strobili: 

where 

INV.PC.MORT(I) = percent strobilus mortality for month I 

PC.SURV(I) = percent strobilus survival for month I 

Calculating estimates of the total numbers of strobili and seed and the effects of 

damage factors on the yields of strobili and seed follow. 

Total numbers of strobili 

TOT.TA = C MTAO 

T0T.TD = TD(I) 

T0T.TA.K = r: TAK(I) 

TOT.DA = Z: MDAO 

TOT.DD = C DDO 

T0T.DA.K = C DM@ 

TOT.IA = 2 M?IA(I) 

TOT.ID = C ID@) 

TOT.1A.K = IA.K(I) 

TOT.UA = MUAO 

TOT.UD = r: UD(I) 

T0T.UA.K = r: UMO 
where 

I = month 

T0T.d = number attacked by x 

T0T.a = number killed by x 

TOT.xAK = number of prior attacked strobili killed by x 

xAO = number attacked by x for month I 

xD(Q = number ldlled by x for month I 

xAK(I) = number of prior attacks killed by x for month I 

MxA(1) = number of lethal + nonlethal attacks in month I 

And for x: T = duips 

D = coneworn 

I = other insects 

U=unknown 

Percentages of total strobili 

PC.TA = TOT.TA I UWX x 100 

PG.TI) = TQT.TD I LVE;X x 100 

PC.TAK = TOT.TAK I LIVEX x 100 

PC.DA = TOT.DA I LIVEX x 100 

PC.DD = TOT.DD I LIVEX x 100 

PC.DAK = T0T.DAK I LIVEX x 100 

PC.IA = T0T.I.A 1 LIWX x 100 

PC.ID = T0T.D I LIWX x 100 

PC.M = T0T.M I LNEXx 100 

PC.UA = TOT.UA 1 LIVEX x 100 

PC.UD = T0T.W 1 LIVEX x 100 

PC.UAK = TOT.UAK 1 LIVEX x 100 

TOTPCA = PC.TA + PC.DA + PC.IA + PC.UA 

TOTPCD = PC.TD + PC.DD + PC.ID + PC.UD 

TOTPCK = PC.TAK + PC.DAK + PC.IAK + PC.UAK 

TOTSAM = TOTPCD + TOTPCK 

HARV = PC.TA - PC.TD - PC.TAK + PC.DA - PC.DD - 

PC.DAK + PC.IA - pc.m - PC.~ + PC.UA - 

PC.UD - PC.UBE( 

where 

PC.xA = percent attacked by x 

PC.a = percent Ued by x 

PC. = percent of prior attacked killed by x 

And for x: T = thrips 

D = cowworn 

I = 

U = 

= number of live strobili 

TOPCA = total percent attack 

TOTPCD = total percent of healthy strobili that died 
TOTPCK = total percent of prior attacks that died 

= (S.A.HC + S.A.D 

EXf.SEED = (S.A.HC + S.A.D 

TOT.EMPTY = TOT-SEED x EK x DSEM 

TOT.BUG = TOT.SEED x SK x DSSB 

T0T.WOR.M = TOTSEED x LK x DSSW 

TOT.MALF = TOTSEED x UK x DSUK 

TOT.FULL = TOT.SEED - TOT.EMPTY - TOT.BUG - 

T0T.WOR.M - TOT.MALF 

T0T.GER.M = TOT.FULL x (1 - Gl?) 

CE = HELTHY(~~) I LIVE(I) 

SE = TOT.WLL I LIVE(23) I POT 

where 

TOT-SEED = total seed present in all cones 

EXMEED = total seed extracted from all cones 

TOT.EMPTY = total empty seed 

TOT.BUG = total seed damaged by seed bugs 

TOT. WORM = total seed damaged by 

TOT.MALF = total ma d seed 

TOT.FULL = total full 

TOT. GERM = total seed germinated 

CE = cone efficiency 

SE = seed efficiency 

HELTHY(23) = total healthy cones at harvest (month 23) 

LIVE(23) = total live cones at harvest (month 23) 

LIVE(1) = total live flower buds (month 1) 

POT = total potential seed per cone 

GF = proportion of full seed that fail to ge 

DNPC = number of seed per cone 

EF = proportion remaining in cone due to extraction method 

DSEM = proportion of empty seed 

DSSB = proportion of seed damaged by 

DSSW = proportion of 

DSUK = proportion of 

xK = proportion of e 

SK = seed bugs 

LK = seedworm 

UK = wn factors 

S . A.xC = number of seed present in cones: 

And for x: S .A.HC = heal@ at hasvea 

= damaged at harvest 
View Results 

Economic Analysis 

The Print module (PRINT-Em) provides a screen where the user may select 

from a number of different options to view the results of simulations run on 

SeedCalc. This module uses the results of data ries generad in the 

Outdata Module and stored in temporary files COMM.SIM, DCONE2.SIM, 

NCONE2. SIM, OUTPUT.SIM, SURV.SIM, and PCTTOT.SIM. #en an 

option is selected, the module formats the results for sending to either a screen 

or a printer. When viewing or printing is completed, the program proceeds to 

the Economic Module. 

The Economic Module (ECON.EXE) estimates the costs of the pest 

management programs (Plans A and B). Default values for the pesticides used 

and application methods are stored in APP-COST.DAT and ECON.SIM. 

The default costs per pesticide can be modified by the user. Additional costs 

per acre (e.g., cost of spray adjuvants, labor, equipment), can be added into the 

calculations. These values are stored as variables. 

Cone and seed yields per acre and by total orchard size for Plans A and B are 

presented on screen. The user should remember that the reduction rates for the 

pest populations and damages are based on defined spray windows. Therefore, 

reduction by hydraulic application is dependent on all trees being sprayed in x 

number of days to maintain efficacy. The chemical application schedule(s) and 

the application method(s) are also summarized on screen. Finally, the 

management plan costs are calculated on a cost per germinable seed. 

A user can return to the beginning of the economic analysis and repeat the 

analysis with the same or different costs or request a printed report. The report 

option allows the user to enter specific header information (orchard name, 

manager, tree species) to better delineate the parameters of the management 

plans. The report includes a chemical cost analysis and yield analysis. 

The user can return to the main module and begin a new simulation run or leave 

the program. Reauning to the main module will erase all temporary 

modifications made during the current simulation. 
Literature Cited Barcia, Dorothy R.; Merkel, Edward P. 1972. Bibliography on insects 

destructive to flowers, cones, and of North American conifers. Res. 

Pap. SE-92. Asheville, NC: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 80 p. 

Bramlett, David L.; Godbee, John F., Jr. 1982. Inventory-monitoring system 

for southern pine seed orchards. Res. Pap. 28. Macon, GA: Georgia 

Forestry Commission. 18 p. 

Coulson, R.N.; Saunders, M.C. 1987. Computer-assisted decision-making as 

applied to entomology. Annual Review of Entomology. 32: 4 15-437. 

Croker, Thomas C. 1971. Female strobilus stages of longleaf pine. Journal of 

Forestry. 69:98-99. 

DeBarr, G.L.; Ebel, B.H. 1974. Conelet abortion and seed damage of 

shortleaf and loblolly pines by a seed bug, Leptoglossus corculus. Forest 

Science. 20: 165-170. 

DeBarr, Gary L.; Matthews, Fred R. 1971. Mist-blower applications for 

control of flower &.rips and southern cone rust in a slash pine seed orchard. 

Journal of Economic Entomology. 64: 520-522. 

Fatzinger, Carl W.; Hertel, Gerald D.; Merkel, Edward P. [and others]. 

1980. Identification and sequential occurrence of mortality factors affecting 

seed yields of southern pine seed orchards. Res. Pap. SE-2 16. Asheville, 

NC: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest 

Experiment Station. 43 p. 

Fatzinger, C.W.; Merkel, E.P.; Mantie, R. [and others]. 1984. Control of 

cone and seed insects in slash pine seed orchards with acephate sprays. 

Journal of the Georgia Entomological Society. 19: 102- 1 10. 

Fatzinger, Carl W.; Muse, H. David; Miller, Th [and others]. 1988. 

Estimating cone and seed production and monitoring pest damage in southern 

pine seed orchards. Res. Pap. SE-271. Asheville, NC: U. S . Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 30 p. 

Fatzinger, Carl W.; Muse, H. David; Miller, Tho [and others], 1990. 

Survey and pest monitoring system for southern pine seed orchards. 

Southern Journal of Applied Forestry. 14: 147-154. 
Fatzinger, Carl W.; Yates, Harry Om, III; Barber, Larry R. 1992. 

Evaluation of aerial applimtions of amphate and other psticides for control 

imcts in southem pine 

EntomoIo@cal Science. 27: 172- 184. 

Forrester, Joy W. 1968. Principles of systems. Cambridge, MA: Write-men 

Press, Inc. 40 p. 

Merkd, Edward P. 1964. Hydraulic spray applications of pesticides for the 

control of slash pine cone and seed insects. Res. Pap. SE-9. Asheville, NC: 

U.S. Department of Aflculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest 

Experiment Station. 7 p. 

-el, Edward P.; DeBarr, Gary L.; OIGwynn, Claude H. 1976. Mist 

blower application of Guthion for cone insect control in slash pine seed 

orchards. Res. Pap. SE- 148. Asheville, NC: U. S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 8 p. 

Merkel, E.P.; Yandle, David 0. 1965. Mist blower applicatiow of pesticides I 

for cone imct mn%roE ow slash pine. Res. Note SE-52. ille, NC: U.S. 

Deparhnent of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment 

Station. 4 p. 

Sarvas, Risto. 1962. Investigations on the flowering and seed crop of PinuE 

sylvestris. Communicationes Instituti Forestalis Fenniae. 53(4). 198 p. 

Starfield, A.M.; Bldoch, A.L. 1986. Building models for conservation and 

wildlife management. New York: Macmillan. 253 p. 

Waters, W.E. 1974. System approach to maaging pine bark beetles. In: 

Payne, momas L. ; Coulson, Robert N. ; Thatcher, Robert C., eds. 

Proceedings, sou&ern pine beetle symposium; 1974 March 7-8; College 

Stafion, TX: Texas Agricultural Experiment Station and U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Southem Forest Experiment Station: 12- 14. 

P. 1991. Use of models in applied entomology: the need for 

perspective. Environmental Entomology. 20: 768-773. 

Yate, Ijll81"ry C)., m; WBm, Gary L, 1984. IntegraM pest mamagement in 

orchards-imcts. In: Branham, Susan J.; Hertel, G.D., eds. 

rigs, Integrated forest pest management symposium; 1984 June: 

19-21; Ahens, GA: The University of &@a, Center fos Continuing 

MucaQion: 1166-178 
Tables 

vat of female strobili of stash pine over a 22-month period 

r 1974 in the McColsky seed orchard near Lake 

City, FL 

No. of dead cones 

No. of cones Accumulated 

Month Healthy Damaged month month Total Dead Live 

Dec 

Jan 

Feb 

Mar 

APr 

May 

Jun 

Jul 

Aug 

Sep 

Oc t 

Nov 

Bec 

Jan 

Feb 

Mar 

APr 

May 

Jun 

Jul 

Aug 

SeP 
Table 24urrent mortality of female strobili of slash 

pine during their developnt from flouers to mature 

cones (1972-74) in the McColsky seed orchard near 

bake City, FL 

Current mortal i tf 

Month T K D K I K UK 

Dec 

Jan 

Feb 

Mar 

APr 

May 

Jun 

Jul 

Aw 

SeP 

Oc t 

Nov 

Dec 

Jan 

Feb 

Mar 

APr 

May 

Jun 

Jul 

Aug 

SeP 

TK = thrips killed; DK = Dioryctxia spp. killed; IK = other insect killed; UK = killed by unknown factor. 

" Proportions of healthy cones killed during the same 

month by different categories of pests. 
Table Wurrent damage and delayed mortality of ftamle strobili of slash pine during their &vet 

front flowers to mature cones (1972-74) in the McColsky seed orchard near Lake City, FL 

Current damagea Delayed mrtal i tyb 

Other Won- Other NonThrips Coneworms insect insect Thrips Cmwom insect insect 

Month T A D A I A U A TAK OAK I AK U AK 

Dec 

Jan 

Feb 

Mar 

APr 

May 

Jm 

Jul 

Aug 

sep 

Oct 

Nov 

Dttc 

Jan 

Feb 

Mar 

APr 

May 

Jun 

Jul 

Aug 

SeP 

TA = thrips attack; DA = Dioryctria spp. attack; IA = Other insect attack; UA = 

- AK = previously attacked strobilus that dies; - = factor responsible, where T 

spp. I = other insect; U = unknown factor. 

" Proportion of healthy cones that are damaged (attacked or affected). 

Proportion of previously damaged cones that die. 

Table &Sumnary of the reported efficacy of acephate and azinMosmethy1 pesticides in raciw d-ge caused 

by seedworms ( spp.) to strobili of slash pine 

Rate of 

Chmi ca 1 Sprayer appl ication ~ef erenceb 

Acephate Hydraulic 2 Jan, Feb, May 0.5%, 8 galltree < 0. 5.0 (99 D 

Azinphos. Mistbloxer 2 Apr, May, Jun 1,0%, 1 galltree 9-2 30-0 69 K 

Az inphos. Hydreul ic 2 Apr, May, Jm 0.2%, 8 galftree 99 F 

Azimos. Hydraulic 2 Apr, May, Jun 0.2%, 8 gelftree 98 F 

a Year of strobilus developnent during uhich pesticide applications were Me &ring the study, 

Letters refer to the follouing references: (D) Fatzinger and others 1984; (HI MerkeC ene( Yandte 1965; 

(Fl Merkel 1964. 
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Table 7---Estimates used as default vatues in SeedCalc of the efficacy of pesticides 

for increasing the quantity and quality of seed extracted from cones of slash pine 

Factor affecting Proportion of pest damage rate expected 

seed quantity or 

seed quality Acephate Azinphosmthyl Fenvalerate B. thrLzxqemsir 

No. seedfcone 1.065 1.135 1.065 1 .OO 

Empty seed 1 .OO 1 .OO 1 .OO 0.18 

Seed bug damage 0.60 0.55 0.60 .48 

Seedworm damage -69 .69 -69 1 .OO 

Unknown -30 .40 .30 -70 

Table &-Surmary of the reported efficacy of malathion and acephate pesticides in reducing damage caused by the slash 

pine flower thrips, Gnqphothripr fuurcas (Morgan), to strobili of slash pine 

Tota 1 iaggl i cat 1 ons . . Rate of % Damage 

Chemica 1 Sprayer Year" Months application Treated Check reduction ~eference~ 

Malathion 

Malathion 

Acepha te 

Acephate 

Malathion 

Malathion 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Mistblower 

Mistblower 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydrau 1 i c 

1 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 

1 Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 

2 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 

1 Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 

2 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 

1 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 

1 Jan, Feb 

1 Jan, Feb 

1 Jan, Feb, May 

1 Jan, Feb, May 

1 Jan, Feb, May 

1 Jan, Feb, May 

1 Jan, Feb, May 

1 Jan, Feb, May 

1 Jan, Feb, May 

" Year of strobilus development during which pesticide applications Mere made during the study. 

Letters refer to the following references: (El Fatzinger and others 1992, (B) DeBarr and Matthews 1971; (D) Fatzinger 

and others 1984. 
Table 9-4mry of the reported efficacy of acephate, azinphosmethyl, Ikcillsw tlnrrirtgiesir, and fenvalerate 

pesticides in reducing ge caused by the coneworm, lXoryctrh spp., to strobili of slash pine 

Total @lcatlons . . Rate of % Damage 

Chemi ea 1 Sprayer Yeara Months appl ication Treated Check reduct ion ~eference~ 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acepha te 

Az i nphos . Azinphos. 

8. thur. 

B. ttmr. 

Fenva 1. 

Acephate 

Azinphos. 

At i nphos . Az i nphos. 

Az i nphos . Az i nphos . Az i nphos . Az i nphos . Azinphos. 

Fenva 1. 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Acephate 

Az i nphos . Azinphos. 

Az i nphos . Fenva 1. 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Aerial 

Mistblower 

Mistblower 

Mistblower 

Mistblower 

Histblower 

Histblower 

Mistblower 

Mistblower 

Mistblower 

Mistblower 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraulic 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraulic 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraulic 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul i c 

Hydraul ic 

Hydraul i c 

Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, 

Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug 

Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, 

Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, 

Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, 

Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, 

Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, 

Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, 

Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, 

Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, 

Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, 

Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug 

Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug 

Apr, May, Jun 

Apr, May, Jun 

Jul, Aug 

May", Jiil 

May, Jun, Jut, Aug 

Apr, May, Jul, Aug 

Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug 

Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug 

Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug 

Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug 

Jan, Feb, May 

Jan, Feb, May 

Jan, Feb, May 

Jan, Feb, May 

Jan, Feb, May 

Jan, Feb, May 

Jan, Feb, May 

Jan, Feb, May 

Jan, Feb, May 

Jan, Feb, May 

AP~, H~Y~ 

Apr, May, Jun 

Apr, May, Jun 

Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug 

Jul 

Jul 

Jul 

Jul 

Jul 

Jul 

Jul 

Jul 

Jul 

Jul 

" Year of strobilus development during which pesticide applications were made during the study. 

Letters refer to the following references: (El Fatzinger and others 1992; (HI Merkel and Yandle 1965; 

(G) Merkel and others 1976; (D) Fatzinger and others 1984; (F) Merkel 1964. 

" Applications on May 4 and May 30. 

Applications on May 4 and May 16. 
Table 10-S of the reported efficacy of acephate and azirrphosmethyl pesticides in 

damage by 1 other than cmwarms, ~i5qyeztzd.a spp., or stash pine flower thrips, 

fZZ1~al. (Morgan), to strobili of slash pine (Fatzinger and others 1992) 

Rate of % Damage 

Chemi ca 1 Sprayer Year" Manths application Treated Check reduction 

Acephate Aerial 1 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 3 lb/ac 0.1 7.0 99 

Acephate Aerial 1 Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jut 3 lb/ac 

2 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 3 lb/ac .1 0.1 0 

Azinphos. Aerial 1 Jan, Feb, Apt-, May, Jun, Jul 3 lb/ac .I 7.0 99 

Azinphos. Aerial 1 Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 3 lb/ac 

2 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 3 lb/ac 0 .1 100 

" Year of strobilus development during which pesticide applications were made during the study. 

Table 11-Surmary of the reported efficacy of acephate and azinphosmethyl. 

pesticides applied aerially at a rate of 3 pods per acre in reducing 

damage caused by the unknown factors to strobili of slash pine (Fatzinger 

and others 1992) 

Total ~pplications . %D- %D8mage 

Chemical Year" Months Treated Check reduction 

Acephate 1 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 31.3 32.6 4 

Acephate 1 Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 

2 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 31.6 35.5 11 

Azinphos. 1 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 23.5 32.6 28 

Azinphos. 1 Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jut 

2 Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jun, Jul 30.2 35.5 15 

" Year of strobilus development during which pesticide applications were made 

during the study. 
Table 12--Contento of data file ASMJ.SIM taken from program 

&fault vaiues for array ASUI(23,Q) rapreeenting the pesticide 

f~~~~aterate &ere ef f icecy of fcnvalerate is exprcwrscld as 

wrcmtagcsl of reduction in strobilus in four catyloricwr 

Table 13-Gontmts of data f f te BT,SI@l t8km f ram program 

default values for array BT(23,4) rapresenting a. t-rrprir 

where ef f icscy of BT is expressad as pcrcentrgcl, of rcdwt f on 

in four categories 

Other 

Month Thrips" C insacts 

Other 

Month Thriprr* C insects 

' Selection of fanvsleratt spray also selects malathion spray for 

thrips. 

famraleraae is as cffectivc as rrzinph 

therefore, used data for azinphowthyl. 

" Selection of BT spray also selects mlathion 8pray for thrips. 

Percent R for aerial spray = 0.56; -56 * 1.38 = 0.77. 

" Percent R for aeriai spray = 0.41; -41 * 1.38 0.57. 

Table lGCorrtmts of data ff lab CYTH.SIM taken from program 

default values for array CYTH(23.4) representing the pesticide 

malathion where efficacy of malathion is expressed a8 percentages 

of reduction in strobitus ge in fwr categories 

Other 

Month Thrips Conwonrs insects Onlvrowr 
Tabte 15--Contents of data file WTH.SIU taken from program 

default values for array GUTHC23,4) rcpresentiw the pesticide 

thy1 is expressed as 

e in four catworiw 

Table IMontents of data file ORTH-SIB taken from 

program default values for array ORTHC23,4) reprcsentfng 

the pesticide acylhate uhere efficacy of =@ate is 

expressed as Wrcttntages of r 

in four categoriw 

Other 

nonth Thrips' Conewnns insects UrJvrom 

Other 

Uonth Thrips Conewnw insects Unkm 

' Selection of azinphosmethyl spray also selects malathion spray 

for thrips. 

Percent R for aerial spray = 0.28; .28 x 1.38 = 0.39. 

" Percent R for aerial spray = 0.15; .15 x 1.38 = 0.21. 

' Average Percent R for aperiai spray - 0.7'9; .79 x 1.38 = 1.09 

or 1.00. 

Percent R for aerial spray = 0.04; .a4 x 1.38 = 0.06. 

" Percent R for aerial spray = 0.11; -11 x 1.38 = 0.15. 
Table 17-Surmary of the relative efficacy for three methods of applying pesticides 

to slash pine trees for control of cone and seed insects 

Cone 

Pest Chemical crop Year Hydraulic Mi stbLower Aerial ~eference~ 

Thrips Malathion 1st 1985 

1967 

1967 

1984 

Acephate 1st 1985 

1976 

1976 

1976 

1976 

1976 

1976 

1976 

Average 

Coneworms Az i nphosmethyl 1st 1985 

1962 

1961 

2nd 1962 

1971 

1972 

1973 

1971 

1972 

1973 

1961 

1961 

Average 

Coneworms Acephate 1st 1985 

1983 

1983 

1983 

1976 

1976 

1976 

2nd 1984 

1976 

1976 

1976 

Average 

Seedworms Az i nphosmethyl 2nd 1962 

1961 

1961 

Average 

Overall averagec 

" Percent reduction in damage on sprayed plots. 

Letters refer to the following references: (El Fatzinger and others 1992; (8) DeBarr and 

Matthews 1971; (0) Fatzinger and others 1984; (H) Merkel and Yandle 1965; (F) Merkel 1964; 

(G) Merkel end others 1976. 

" Average over all pests excluding zero data and percentages Less than 40 percent, 
Appendix I 

le of Output from Economics Module 

or Orgdion: Southern Pine Seed Co. 

: WestemEkdCfc3ek 

Address: P.O. Box 1345 

Star Route 1 

Hatchett Creek, FX 32612 

Manager: John R. Elliottii 

Date: 2 Mwch 1994 

Pine Species: Slash pine 

Chemical Cost Analysis 

Chemical Costs for Plan A ($) Chemical Costs for Plan B ($) 

Acephate 

sm&yl 

B. thuringiemis 

Fenvalerate 

Malathion 

Additional costs 

Total costs 

Costlgenninable seed 

Yield Analysis 

0 Acephate 0 

0 ~hosrnetslyl 6 

0 B. thuringiensis 0 

0 Fenvalerate 0 

0 Malathion 0 

0 Additional costs 0 

0 Total costs 0 

0 Costlgerminable seed 0 

- 

Plan A Plan B 

Harvest Yield Acre Total Acre Total 

No. of cones 4,293 42,93 1 4,923 42,931 

Healthy 3,339 33,394 3,339 33,394 

Damaged 954 9,537 954 9,537 

No. of cones 

Lost before 

harvest 5,707 57,069 5,707 57,069 

Total lbs. seed 15.53 155.34 15.53 155.34 

Total no. seed 225,242 2,252,4 18 225,242 2,252,418 - - 

Extmction Yield 

Total lbs. seed 10.25 102.52 10.25 102.52 

Total no. seed 148,660 1,486,596 148,660 1,486,596 

Total germinated 

seed 128,596 1,285,962 128,596 1,285,962 
Appendix I1 

Troubleshooting SeedCalc 

This appendix describes the causes and solutions to some common problems experienced when using SeedCalc on 

different computers. 

Emergency exit from SeedCalc: 1 

I 

L 

The preferred method for leaving the program is to use various exit points provided in the SeedCalc menus. 

If absolutely necessary, you can also exit SeedCalc by pressing the Control and Break keys simultaneously, 

then press the Return key. 

Once installed, SeedCalc will not run: 

You may be using the wrong version of SeedCalc. SeedCalc is supplied in two versions, one for color 

monitors and another for monochrome monitors. The software will work with monochrome monitors with 

text-based graphics cards as well as color monitors with higher resolution graphics. The color version will 

not operate on monochrome monitors and vice versa. Correct by reinstalling SeedCalc using the version 

designed for your monitor. 

Entering letters at menu results in error messages: I 

SeedCalc programs rely on capital letters for input. Attempting to enter lower case letters results in error 

messages displayed next to the input brackets on the different menus. This can be corrected by turning on 

(pressing) the Caps Lock (key). 

Error message is displayed indicating insufficient memory: 

SeedCalc may be exceeding the RAM available. You may have to remove any RAM drives you have 

installed. 

Cannot install SeedCalc: 

SeedCalc is provided on one highdensity diskette (5 ?4 " or 3% "). If your system cannot read highdensity 

diskettes, contact the authors for a lowdensity diskette version. 

To install SeedCalc, you need about 1.2 megabytes of unused space on your hard drive. 

Once installed, SeedCalc does not seem to run rapidly enough: 

Although the system will run with older microprocessors (e.g., 8088), faster processors (386, 486 or 

equivalent) will considerably reduce the time needed to execute a pest management plan. 
Follow 

Pesticide 

Label Exactly 

This publication reports research involving pesticides. 

It does not contain recommendations for their use, nor does it imply that the uses discussed here have been 

registered. All uses of pesticides must be registered by 

appropriate State and/or Federal agencies before they can be recommended. 

CAUTION: Pesticides can be injurious to humans, 

als, desirable plants, and fish or other 

wildlife-if they are not handled or applied properly. Use 

all pesticides selectively and carefully. Follow recommended practices for the disposal of surplus pesticides 

and pesticide containers. 

The Forest Service, U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, is dedicated to the principle of 

multiple use management of the Nation's forest resources 

for sustained yields of wood, water, forage, wildlife, and 

recreation. Through forestry research, cooperation with the 

States and private forest owners, and management of the 

National Forests and National Grasslands, it strives-as 

directed by Congress-to provide increasingly greater service 

to a growing Nation. 

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits 

discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, 

nationai origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, 

and marital or familial status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to 

all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative 

means of communication of program information (braille, large 

print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA office of 

Communications at (202) 720-2791. To file a complaint, write 

the Secretary of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Washington, DC 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or 

(202) 720-1 'I 27 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment 

opportunity employer.