Alison William

Lawrence Berkeley Nation

May 14, 2014

ASRAC Pumps Working Group

Life Cycle Cost Analysis Updates
2

Updated Inputs: Markups Analysis

Channel: From Manufacturer

Previous Share

of Shipments

New sh

Shipm

Pump OEM to Distributor to End User 87% 70%Pump OEM to Distributor to

Contractor to End User 0% 17%

Pump OEM to OEM to End User 8% 8%Pump OEM to End User 2% 2%

Pump OEM to Contractor to End User 1% 1%

Previous Markup New M

Baseline 1.50 1.5Incremental 1.24 1.2

• Revised distribution channels to account for new channel

– Assigned 20% of Pump OEM  Distributor  End User channel to the ne

represent the new market (as opposed to replacement market)
3

Updated Inputs: Energy Use Load Profiles

Previous Wts New Wts

LP0 25% 30%LP1 25% 30%LP2 25% 30%LP3 25% 10%

• Revised LP3 weight to make overloading less prevalent
4

Updated Inputs: Annual Operating Hours

• Revised operating hours in “other” sector

Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 

Cooling Water 2500 3500 5000 6000 

Boiler Feed 2000 3000 4000 5000 

Circulation 2000 3000 4000 5000 Pressure Boost 300 600 1000 2500 Irrigation 300 600 1000 1500 Other 600 940 1500 3300 Revised Other 1000 1500 2000 3000 
5

Updated Inputs: Sector Weights

Data Est Consultant Est Stakeholder Est Re

Agriculture 7% 5% 15% Commercial 60% 49% 50% Industrial 30% 40% 25% Municipal 3% 6% 10% 

• Revised sector weights to reduce commercial weight
6

Updated Inputs: Lifetime (1)• Revised ESFM and IL lifetime to account for repair cycles

• Revised 3600 lifetime to be shorter than 1800 rpm

EquipmentClass

Previous Average of Mechanical

Life (Hours)

Revised Average of 

Life (Hour

ESCC 1800 22,200 28,000

ESCC 3600 22,100 18,100

ESFM 1800 15,100 73,000

ESFM 3600 14,600 49,600

IL 1800 25,000 47,300

IL 3600 24,600 31,500

* 70% CC 30% FM w

Equipment Class No. of Repairs Avg. LifetimeESCC 1800 0 12.7

ESCC 3600 0 8.4ESFM 1800 5 28.4

ESFM 3600 5 22.5IL 1800 1.5 19.3IL 3600 1.5 14.4
7

Updated Inputs: Lifetime (2)
8

Original Scenario

• The cost of improving efficiency is summarized in the “cost curv

presented below as product cost vs. C‐value for one representa

(ESCC 1800)

• Consumers only purchase a more expensive redesigned pump if 

no already existing pumps available – results in very limited cos
9

‐$500

$0

$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000

ESCC,1800 ESCC,3600 ESFM,1800 ESFM,3600 IL,1800 

Δ Operating Cost

Δ Purchase Price

Previous

Updated

Updated LCC Results with Original Scenario

‐$500

$0

$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000

ESCC,1800 ESCC,3600 ESFM,1800 ESFM,3600 IL,1800 

Δ Operating Cost

Δ Purchase Price
10

New Engineering and Scenarios
11

Scenario 1: No Cost Recovery

• Base case cost curve only

• No conversion costs are passed on to consumers

• Affected consumers purchase pumps meeting the minimu

standard at prices equivalent to those already on the mar

400600800

10001200140016001800

110 115 120 125 130 135

MSP$

C‐value
12

Scenario 2: Full Cost Recovery

• Affected consumers purchase a redesigned version of their prev

• For costs to be recovered, they must be reflected in the prices o

pumps

– Increased price used in this LCC scenario based on an annuity that crea

INPV over the analysis period

400600800

10001200140016001800

110 115 120 125 130 135

MSP$

C‐value
13

Scenario 1 (No Cost Recovery): Results

‐$500

$0

$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500

ESCC,1800 ESCC,3600 ESFM,1800 ESFM,3600 IL,1800 

Δ Operating Cost

Δ Purchase Price
14

Scenario 2 (Full Cost Recovery): Results

‐$500

$0

$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500

ESCC,1800 ESCC,3600 ESFM,1800 ESFM,3600 IL,1800 

Δ Operating Cost

Δ Purchase Price
15

• No Cost Recovery • Full Cost Recovery

$‐

$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500

PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70

Scenario Comparison: Average LCC Savings

$‐

$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500

PER10 PER25 PER40 
16

• No Cost Recovery • Full Cost RecoveryScenario Comparison: Distribution of Results

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70

ESCC 1800

LosersNo ImpactWinners

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 

ESCC 1800
17

Scenario 2 (Full Cost Recovery): Results

PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70

ESCC,1800

Net Benefit 7 23 29 31 31

Net Cost 10 9 19 27 40

No Impact 82 68 52 42 28

ESCC,3600

Net Benefit 2 9 11 13 17

Net Cost 2 1 13 14 13

No Impact 96 91 76 73 70

ESFM,1800

Net Benefit 3 18 31 41 50

Net Cost 2 8 16 24 28

No Impact 95 74 53 34 22

ESFM,3600

Net Benefit 11 22 36 44 55

Net Cost 23756

No Impact 87 75 57 51 39

IL,1800

Net Benefit 13 26 28 31 32

Net Cost 2 6 13 22 32

No Impact 85 69 59 47 36

IL,3600

Net Benefit 26 39 44 45 51

Net Cost 1 4 6 9 13

No Impact 73 56 50 46 36
18

Back‐of‐the‐envelope Savings Calc: All Purchas

ሻ݅݊݃ݐ݊ݑ݋ܿݏ݀݅	ݎ݋݂	ݐ݊ݑ݋ܽܿܿ	݋ݐሺ	2 ݅݉݁ݐ݂݅݁ܮ ∗ 	݅ܿ݁ݎܲ	݈݁ܿܧ ∗ 	ݏ݅݊݃ݒܽݏ	݁ݏݑ	ݕ݃ݎ݁݊݁	݈ܽݑ݊݊ܣ ൌ ݏ݅݊݃ݒܵܽ	ݐݏ݋ܥ	݅݊݃ݐܽݎ݁݌ܱ	݅݉݁ݐ݂݅݁ܮ

ൌ

ಲೡ೒	್ೌೞ೐	೎ೌೞ೐	ೞ೓ೌ೑೟	ಹು	@	ಳಶು

ಲೡ೒	೘೚೟೚ೝ	೐೑೑ 	∗஺௩௚	ு௉௒	∗஺௩௚	ா௙௙	ூ௡௖ ∗ா௟௘௖	௉௥

ଶ

Avg HP/ 93%

Motor Eff

(HP)

Avg HPY

(hours)

Avg Eff

Inc. (PER

10) (%)

Avg Eff

Inc. (PER

40) (%)

Elec

Price

($/kwh)

Life‐

time

(Years)

Lifetime Operating

Cost Savings

(PER 10) ($)

ESCC

1800 10.84 2712 0.57 2.76 0.085 12.7 $76.69 

ESFM

1800 17.96 2720 0.08 1.41 0.085 28.4 $37.46 

$‐

$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800

ESCC 1800 ESFM,1800

PER10

Back‐of‐the‐envelope from LCC

$‐

$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800

ESCC 1800 

PER40

Back‐of‐the‐envelope 
19

Back‐of‐the‐envelope Savings Calc: Impacted P

ሻ݅݊݃ݐ݊ݑ݋ܿݏ݀݅	ݎ݋݂	ݐ݊ݑ݋ܽܿܿ	݋ݐሺ	2 ݅݉݁ݐ݂݅݁ܮ ∗ 	݅ܿ݁ݎܲ	݈݁ܿܧ ∗ 	ݏ݅݊݃ݒܽݏ	݁ݏݑ	ݕ݃ݎ݁݊݁	݈ܽݑ݊݊ܣ ൌ ݏ݅݊݃ݒܵܽ	ݐݏ݋ܥ	݅݊݃ݐܽݎ݁݌ܱ	݅݉݁ݐ݂݅݁ܮ

ൌ

ಲೡ೒	್ೌೞ೐	೎ೌೞ೐	ೞ೓ೌ೑೟	ಹು	@	ಳಶು

ಲೡ೒	೘೚೟೚ೝ	೐೑೑ 	∗஺௩௚	ு௉௒	∗஺௩௚	ா௙௙	ூ௡௖ ∗ா௟௘௖	௉௥

ଶ

Avg HP/ 93%

Motor Eff

(HP)

Avg HPY

(hours)

Avg Eff

Inc. (PER

10) (%)

Avg Eff

Inc. (PER

40) (%)

Elec

Price

($/kwh)

Life‐

time

(Years)

Lifetime Operating

Cost Savings

(PER 10) ($)

ESCC

1800 10.84 2712 3.26 5.71 0.085 12.7 $435.68 

ESFM

1800 17.96 2720 1.46 3.02 0.085 28.4 $691.48 

$‐

$200$400$600$800

$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600

ESCC 1800 ESFM,1800

PER10

Back‐of‐the‐envelope from LCC

$‐

$200$400$600$800

$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600

ESCC 1800 

PER40

Back‐of‐the‐envelope 

Avg. Consumer Price Incr

Avg. Consumer Price Increase = $130 
20

National Energy Savings Estimates

• Assumptions

– HI Total Industry Estimate Annual Shipments

– Average Annual Energy Savings (LCC results)

– Average Lifetime (LCC results)

– 30 years of shipments

– 2.5 site to source factor

– 3412 btu/kwh; 10^15 btu/quad

• Equipment classes: ESCC, ESFM, IL

NES estimate (quads)

PER 10 0.08PER 25 0.28PER 40 0.46PER 55 0.69PER 70 1.0