ref2011.d120810c2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Report Annual Energy Outlook 2011Scenario ref2011 Reference caseDatekey d120810cRelease Date December 201011. Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)Supply and Disposition2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Crude OilDomestic Crude Production 1/ 4.96 5.36 5.43 5.31 5.44 5.47 5.64 5.72 5.83 5.97 6.02 6.05 6.05Alaska 0.69 0.65 0.61 0.59 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.49 0.47 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.42Lower 48 States 4.28 4.71 4.82 4.72 4.90 4.94 5.12 5.23 5.36 5.53 5.60 5.65 5.63Net Imports 9.75 8.97 9.17 9.13 8.95 9.08 8.94 8.81 8.73 8.58 8.47 8.36 8.34Gross Imports 9.78 9.01 9.21 9.17 8.98 9.11 8.97 8.84 8.76 8.62 8.50 8.39 8.38Exports 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03Other Crude Supply 2/ -0.06 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total Crude Supply14.66 14.33 14.61 14.51 14.39 14.55 14.58 14.53 14.56 14.56 14.49 14.41 14.39Other Petroleum Supply4.10 3.59 3.36 3.43 4.26 4.38 4.39 4.39 4.37 4.32 4.33 4.37 4.35Natural Gas Plant Liquids 1.78 1.91 1.96 1.95 2.14 2.18 2.18 2.22 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.33 2.37Net Product Imports 1.39 0.75 0.37 0.48 1.13 1.21 1.21 1.17 1.13 1.04 1.02 1.02 0.97Gross Refined Product Imports 3/ 1.55 1.27 0.97 1.04 1.04 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.04 0.99 0.98 1.02 0.98Unfinished Oil Imports 0.76 0.68 0.62 0.66 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78Blending Component Imports 0.79 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.78 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81Exports 1.71 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.48 1.46 1.46 1.51 1.53 1.57 1.57 1.59 1.61Refinery Processing Gain 4/ 1.00 0.98 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01Product Stock Withdrawal -0.07 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other Non-petroleum Supply0.76 0.81 1.01 1.23 1.22 1.26 1.28 1.40 1.48 1.58 1.67 1.75 1.85Supply from Renewable Sources 0.66 0.76 0.89 0.95 1.03 1.06 1.07 1.12 1.16 1.21 1.29 1.35 1.44Ethanol 0.64 0.73 0.86 0.90 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.04 1.09 1.16 1.21 1.29Domestic Production 0.61 0.72 0.86 0.89 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.99 1.04 1.10 1.18Net Imports 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.11Biodiesel 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10Domestic Production 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10Net Imports -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other Biomass-derived Liquids 5/ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05Liquids from Gas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Liquids from Coal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07Other 6/ 0.10 0.05 0.12 0.28 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.24 0.27 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.34Total Primary Supply 7/ 19.51 18.73 18.9719.17 19.87 20.19 20.24 20.3220.40 20.45 20.50 20.53 20.59Liquid Fuels Consumptionby FuelLiquefied Petroleum Gases 2.04 2.13 2.13 2.10 2.26 2.29 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.33 2.33 2.33 2.34E85 8/ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.22Motor Gasoline 9/ 8.99 9.00 9.02 9.09 9.33 9.38 9.39 9.40 9.40 9.36 9.29 9.23 9.18Jet Fuel 10/ 1.54 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.52 1.52 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.62Residual Fuel Oil 0.62 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60Other 12/ 2.38 2.15 2.16 2.21 2.30 2.38 2.41 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.43 2.42 2.41by SectorResidential and Commercial 1.06 1.04 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91Industrial 13/ 4.69 4.25 4.37 4.50 4.78 4.93 4.96 5.00 5.02 5.02 5.00 4.99 4.98Transportation 13.87 13.61 13.74 13.88 14.03 14.21 14.25 14.31 14.38 14.45 14.50 14.53 14.60Electric Power 14/ 0.21 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20Total 19.52 18.81 18.98 19.10 19.99 20.30 20.36 20.45 20.54 20.60 20.62 20.64 20.69Discrepancy 15/ -0.01 -0.08 0.00 0.07 -0.11 -0.11 -0.12 -0.13 -0.13 -0.14 -0.13 -0.11 -0.10Domestic Refinery Distillation Capacity 16/17.6 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.7Capacity Utilization Rate (percent) 17/ 85.0 83.086.0 85.0 83.4 84.4 85.0 84.9 85.8 86.3 86.6 87.1 87.9Net Import Share of Product Supplied (perc57.2 51.9 50.2 50.1 50.9 51.1 50.3 49.4 48.7 47.5 46.9 46.2 45.8Net Expenditures for Imports of Crude Oil andPetroleum Products (billion 2009 dollars) 272.70 203.67217.88 274.19 279.81 291.96 295.96 300.55 305.86 311.83 316.14 320.90 326.211/ Includes lease condensate.2/ Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude product supplied.3/ Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohols.4/ The volumetric amount by which total output is greater than input due to the processing of crude oil into products which,in total,have a lower specific gravity than the crude oil processed.5/ Includes pyrolysis oils, biomass-derived Fischer-Tropsch liquids, and renewable feedstocks used for the productionof green diesel and gasoline.6/ Includes domestic sources of other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers.7/ Total crude supply plus natural gas plant liquids, other inputs, refinery processing gain, and net product imports.8/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To addresscold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of74 percent is used for this forecast.9/ Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline.10/ Includes only kerosene type.11/ Includes distillate fuel oil and kerosene from petroleum and biomass feedstocks.12/ Includes aviation gasoline, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas,special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product supplied, methanol, and miscellaneous petroleum products.13/ Includes consumption for combined heat and power, which produces electricity and other useful thermal energy.14/ Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary businessis to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators.15/ Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses and gains.16/ End-of-year operable capacity.17/ Rate is calculated by dividing the gross annual input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units by theiroperable refining capacity in barrels per calendar day.- - = Not applicable.Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2008 and 2009are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.Sources: 2008 and 2009 product supplied based on: Energy Information Administration (EIA),Annual Energy Review 2009, DOE/EIA-0384(2009) (Washington, DC, August 2010).Other 2008 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2008, DOE/EIA-0340(2008)/1 (Washington, DC, June 2009).Other 2009 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2009, DOE/EIA-0340(2009)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2010).Projections: EIA, AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System run ref2011.d120810c.2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 20352009-2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 20356.03 6.01 5.94 5.84 5.80 5.79 5.79 5.84 5.82 5.82 5.81 5.92 5.90 5.87 5.73 0.3%0.45 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.41 0.37 0.34 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.31 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.39 -1.9%5.59 5.55 5.50 5.41 5.39 5.41 5.44 5.52 5.52 5.55 5.50 5.55 5.48 5.47 5.34 0.5%8.39 8.33 8.33 8.39 8.40 8.39 8.34 8.29 8.28 8.29 8.30 8.22 8.25 8.32 8.52 -0.2%8.43 8.36 8.36 8.42 8.43 8.42 8.38 8.32 8.31 8.32 8.34 8.25 8.28 8.35 8.55 -0.2%0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 -1.3%0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -14.42 14.34 14.27 14.23 14.20 14.17 14.13 14.13 14.09 14.11 14.11 14.14 14.15 14.19 14.24 0.0%4.39 4.40 4.42 4.42 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.38 4.39 4.41 4.43 4.43 4.43 4.43 0.8%2.43 2.51 2.59 2.61 2.63 2.65 2.68 2.71 2.72 2.74 2.77 2.80 2.83 2.87 2.90 1.6%0.95 0.91 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.66 -0.5%0.97 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.85 -1.5%0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.5%0.82 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.6%1.62 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.71 1.73 1.76 1.77 1.79 1.80 -0.2%1.01 0.98 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.87 0.87 0.87 -0.5%0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -1.83 1.99 2.11 2.22 2.33 2.41 2.52 2.60 2.76 2.86 2.98 3.05 3.17 3.25 3.30 5.6%1.42 1.57 1.68 1.80 1.89 1.96 2.06 2.12 2.25 2.31 2.38 2.42 2.51 2.55 2.56 4.8%1.25 1.36 1.45 1.52 1.57 1.58 1.63 1.65 1.74 1.76 1.79 1.77 1.79 1.81 1.82 3.6%1.20 1.23 1.31 1.37 1.41 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.53 1.52 1.55 1.55 1.56 1.56 1.56 3.0%0.05 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.26 12.2%0.10 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 7.1%0.10 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 5.2%0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -0.06 0.09 0.11 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.31 0.35 0.38 0.42 0.47 0.53 0.58 0.61 0.62 - -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.29 0.32 0.36 0.39 0.43 0.47 - -0.34 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 6.6%20.65 20.73 20.80 20.87 20.94 20.99 21.06 21.14 21.24 21.36 21.50 21.62 21.75 21.87 21.97 0.6%2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.33 2.31 2.29 2.28 2.27 2.26 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.21 2.19 0.1%0.15 0.30 0.43 0.54 0.60 0.62 0.67 0.70 0.82 0.83 0.86 0.82 0.84 0.83 0.83 26.2%9.23 9.11 9.01 8.92 8.89 8.91 8.90 8.94 8.87 8.94 8.99 9.09 9.15 9.23 9.31 0.1%1.63 1.64 1.65 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.72 1.73 1.73 1.74 1.74 1.75 0.9%0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.7%2.42 2.41 2.40 2.39 2.38 2.37 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.37 2.38 2.39 2.40 2.41 2.41 0.4%0.90 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 -0.8%5.00 4.99 4.98 4.96 4.94 4.91 4.88 4.86 4.84 4.84 4.84 4.84 4.83 4.82 4.80 0.5%14.64 14.71 14.79 14.87 14.95 15.03 15.12 15.23 15.35 15.47 15.61 15.72 15.85 15.98 16.11 0.6%0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.8%20.74 20.80 20.87 20.93 20.98 21.03 21.09 21.18 21.26 21.39 21.52 21.63 21.75 21.86 21.97 0.6%-0.09 -0.08 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -16.6 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 -0.4%88.6 88.5 88.4 88.8 90.0 90.2 90.0 90.0 90.1 90.3 90.1 90.7 90.5 90.7 91.0 0.4%45.5 45.2 44.9 45.1 44.9 44.8 44.4 44.0 43.6 43.5 43.3 42.5 42.3 42.4 42.9 -0.7%329.62 334.92 341.23 349.58 354.97 358.69 361.69 361.94 365.44 366.91 369.44 366.76 369.12 373.07 382.21 2.5%