The Past Predicts the Future: 

 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders 

UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION
William H. Pryor, Jr. 

Acting Chair

Rachel E. Barkow

Commissioner

J. Patricia Wilson Smoot

Ex Officio

Jonathan J. Wroblewski

Ex Officio

Kenneth P. Cohen 

Staff Director

Glenn R. Schmitt

Director

Office of Research and Data

March 2017

United States Sentencing Commission

One Columbus Circle, N.E. 

Washington, DC 20002

www.ussc.gov
Tracey Kyckelhahn, Ph.D., Senior Research Associate 

Trishia Cooper, M.A., Research Associate

Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders i

Part I

INTRODUCTION

Part II

KEY FINDINGS AND 

STUDY GROUP

Part III

CONCLUSION

ENDNOTES APPENDIX

Table of Contents

Measures of Recidivism.....4 Key Findings and 

Overview.....6

Description of the Study 

Population.....7

Criminal History and 

Recidivism.....14

Endnotes.....16 Methodology.....A-2

Tables and Figures.....A-3

t

Part I

Introduction
Part One: 

INTRODUCTION

2 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders

The Commission’s Ongoing Recidivism Research

The United States Sentencing Commission1 began studying recidivism 

shortly after the enactment of the Sentencing Reform Act of 19842 (“SRA”). 

The Commission’s recent publication Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A 

Comprehensive Overview (“Recidivism Overview Report”) discussed the history 

of this study in greater detail.3 Recidivism information is central to three of the 

primary purposes of punishment as described in the SRA—specific deterrence, 

incapacitation, and rehabilitation—all of which focus on prevention of future 

crimes through correctional intervention. Information about recidivism is also 

relevant to the Commission’s obligation to formulate sentencing policy that 

“reflect[s], to the extent practicable, advancements in knowledge of human 

behavior as it relates to the sentencing process.”4 Considerations of recidivism 

by federal offenders were also central to the Commission’s initial work in 

developing the Guidelines Manual’s criminal history provisions.5 They remained 

important to subsequent work and continue to be a key consideration in the 

Commission’s work today. 

Recent developments, particularly public attention to the size of the 

federal prison population and the cost of incarceration,6 have refocused 

the Commission’s interest on the recidivism of federal offenders.7 The 

Commission’s current recidivism research substantially expands on the scope 

of previous Commission recidivism projects.8 In addition to a different set of 

offenders—U.S. citizen federal offenders released from prison or placed on 

probation in 2005—the project’s study group is much larger than those in 

previous Commission studies and follows the offenders for a longer period of 

time (eight years). This cohort was expanded to include offenders released 

in 2004 and 2006 for those offenders who received sentencing enhancements 

under the career offender guideline or the Armed Career Criminal Act (ACCA) 

due to the small number of these offenders released in 2005 alone. This larger 

study group provides the opportunity to develop statistically useful conclusions 

about many subgroups of federal offenders.

This Report: Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders

The focus of this report is the 25,431 U.S. citizen federal offenders released 

from prison or placed on probation in calendar year 2005. These offenders 

were originally sentenced between fiscal year 1991 and the first quarter of 

fiscal year 2006.9

 The findings included in this report build on those in the 

Recidivism Overview Report. Information about the components of Chapter 

Four of the Guidelines Manual—including total criminal history score, criminal 

history category, and point assignments for types of past convictions—and their 

association with recidivism are contained in this report. Analyses of the type of 

instant offense and recidivism are also contained in this report.10

As noted in the Recidivism Overview Report, recidivism correlates strongly 

with both criminal history and age at release.11 In general, recidivism is 

higher for younger offenders and for those with greater criminal history. As 

an individual offender’s criminal record cannot decrease with age, only stay 

constant or increase, older offenders will on average have greater criminal 

history than younger offenders. Given this relationship between age, criminal 

history, and recidivism, the analyses in this report will include offenders 

grouped by age when there is sufficient population to provide meaningful 

results.

Recidivism “refers to a person’s relapse into criminal behavior, often after 

the person receives sanctions or undergoes intervention for a previous crime.”12 

Recidivism measures can provide policy makers with information regarding 

the relative threat to public safety posed by various types of offenders, and 

the effectiveness of public safety initiatives in (1) deterring crime and (2) 

rehabilitating or incapacitating offenders.13 Recidivism is typically measured by 

criminal acts that resulted in the rearrest, reconviction, and/or reincarceration 

of the offender over a specified period of time. These are the three recidivism 

measures used in this report, but the report primarily relies on the first, 

rearrest, due to data quality problems for the other two measures. While 

states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent 

federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an 

arrest. Such gaps occur in the criminal record used in this report, and lead to an 

undercounting of reconvictions.14 

Rearrest classifies a person as a recidivist if he or she has been arrested for 

a new crime after being released into the community directly on probation or 

after serving a term of imprisonment. Rearrest also includes arrests for alleged 

violations of supervised release, probation, or state parole. The number of 
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders 3

rearrests in the Commission’s analysis is based on the number of unique arrest 

dates, regardless of the number of individual charges arising from a single 

arrest event. Thus, if an offender was arrested on a single occasion for both 

driving under the influence and possession of cocaine, that arrest date would 

constitute a single rearrest event.

Reconviction classifies a person as a recidivist if an arrest resulted in a 

subsequent court conviction.15 Violations and revocations of supervision are 

not included in reconvictions since no formal prosecution occurred. While 

states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent 

federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an 

arrest.16 Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to 

an undercounting of reconvictions, because missing dispositions for rearrests 

are treated as if reconviction and reincarceration did not occur. 

Reincarceration classifies a person as a recidivist if a conviction 

or revocation resulted in a prison or jail sentence as punishment. The 

reincarceration measure counts offenders who were reported returned 

to the Federal Bureau of Prisons, state prison, or local jail for any term of 

incarceration. Incomplete criminal records also create missing information 

about reincarceration.17

Many rearrests do not ultimately result in a reconviction or reincarceration 

for reasons relating to procedural safeguards (e.g., the suppression of evidence 

for an unconstitutional search and seizure), lack of sufficient evidence to 

convict or revoke, and prosecutorial or judicial resources limitations. To the 

extent that the rearrest event is an accurate indicator of relapse into criminal 

behavior, excluding events due to non-conviction or non-incarceration will 

result in underestimation of recidivism. Even using the least restrictive 

measure, rearrest, does not count the full extent of offender recidivism, as many 

crimes go unreported to police or, if reported, do not result in an arrest. For 

these reasons, no measure is perfect, and reporting several measures provides 

a more complete and nuanced picture of reoffending. The three measures 

overlap in some areas—meaning all offenders who were reconvicted or 

reincarcerated also were necessarily rearrested, too. Some offenders who were 

reconvicted, however, were not reincarcerated. Generally speaking, however, 

the measure of rearrest is larger than the measure of reconviction, which in 

turn is larger than the measure of reincarceration. 

Part II contains the report’s findings. Part III provides conclusions. The 

methodology used in this report is discussed in greater detail in the Appendix. 
4 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders
Part II

Key Findings and Study Group
Part Two: 

KEY FACTS AND STUDY GROUP

6 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders

The Key Findings of the Commission’s Study on Criminal History and 

Recidivism Among Federal Offenders Are That:

• Criminal history score and Criminal History Category (CHC) are strong

predictors of recidivism.

• There are differences in the rearrest rates for offenders with different

criminal history point scores within each CHC, but the largest differences

are for offenders in CHC I, which includes offenders with a criminal

history score of zero or one point.

• Offenders with zero criminal history points had a lower rearrest rate than

offenders with one criminal history point (30.2% compared to 46.9%),

a slightly longer median time to rearrest (27 months compared to 25

months), and less serious rearrest offenses (the most common being

public order offenses compared to assault for offenders with one criminal

history point).

• Offenders with zero criminal history points and no prior contact with the

criminal justice system had an 11.7 percentage point lower recidivism

rate than offenders with zero criminal history points and some prior

contact with the criminal justice system, such as arrests or convictions

that do not receive points (25.7% compared to 37.4%).

• Chapter Four of the Guidelines Manual assigns criminal history points

to reflect the seriousness of single prior convictions. Offenders who

only had prior convictions assigned one point have a significantly lower

recidivism rate than offenders who have prior convictions assigned two

or three points (53.4% vs. 71.3% for offenders with at least one two-point

offense and 70.5% for offenders with at least one three-point offense).

Overview: Calculating Criminal History Under the Guidelines Manual

Chapter Four of the Guidelines Manual establishes a method for evaluating 

an offender’s criminal history by assigning points to criminal events that 

occurred during the offender’s past. The object of this method is to calculate 

the offender’s criminal history score, which will correspond to a CHC on 

the Sentencing Table. For purposes of this report, the components of an 

offender’s criminal history score provide the basis for analyses, and so a basic 

understanding of the rules that govern the criminal history calculation is 

critical.18

To calculate criminal history, an offender’s past convictions are assigned 

one, two, or three points based on the nature of the offense and the sentence. 

These point assignments are designed to reflect the seriousness of the crime of 

conviction. To that end the Guidelines Manual instructs, as follows: 

(a) Add 3 points for each prior sentence of imprisonment exceeding

one year and one month.

(b) Add 2 points for each prior sentence of imprisonment of at least

sixty days not counted in (a).

(c) Add 1 point for each prior sentence not counted in (a) or (b), up to a

total of 4 points for this subsection.

(d) Add 2 points if the defendant committed the instant offense

while under any criminal justice sentence, including probation, parole,

supervised release, imprisonment, work release, or escape status.

(e) Add 1 point for each prior sentence resulting from a conviction of

a crime of violence that did not receive any points under (a), (b), or (c)

above because such sentence was treated as a single sentence, up to a total

of 3 points for this subsection.19

In general, three-point sentences almost always represent a state or federal 

felony conviction and are generally more serious than two-point sentences, 

which are more serious than one-point sentences. Prior convictions for certain 

minor offenses, such as low-level misdemeanors, petty offenses and traffic 

offenses, are never counted toward the criminal history calculation.20
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders 7

In addition to the points assigned for prior sentences, two additional 

considerations impacted an offender’s criminal history score at the time 

offenders in this report were sentenced. First, an offender received two 

additional criminal history points if the instant offense of conviction occurred 

while the offender was serving a criminal justice sentence (“status points”). 

Second, an offender could receive one or two additional points if the instant 

offense occurred less than two years after release from imprisonment on a 

sentence that already counted in the criminal history score (“recency points”). 

Recency points were no longer applied starting November 1, 2010.21

The total number of criminal history points determine the offender’s 

Criminal History Category (CHC) for the purpose of determining the sentencing 

guideline range on the Sentencing Table — total criminal history points 

correspond to CHCs on the Sentencing Table as follows:

Description of the Study Population

As noted in the Recidivism Overview Report, offenders in CHC I comprised 

over half (53.6%) of the study group and includes offenders with zero or one 

criminal history point. The highest category, CHC VI, had 7.6 percent of the 

offenders studied. 

The demographics of the study group varied by CHC. Females were a quarter 

(25.6%) of offenders in CHC I, but only 5.8 percent of offenders in CHC VI. 

Offenders in CHC I were 48.7 percent White, 24.6 percent Black, 20.6 percent 

Hispanic, and 6.1 percent Other racial groups. Offenders in CHC VI were 38.4 

percent White, 50.3 percent Black, 9.8 percent Hispanic, and 1.6 percent Other 

racial groups. The median age at release for offenders in CHC I offenders was 37 

years. The median age of offenders in the other categories varied between a low 

of 34 for CHCs III and IV and a high of 39 years for CHC VI.22 

Criminal History Points and Recidivism

As discussed previously, and consistent with its past work in this area, the 

Commission’s present study found that recidivism rates are closely correlated 

with total criminal history points and resulting CHC classification, as offenders 

with lower criminal history scores have lower recidivism rates than offenders 

with higher criminal history scores.23 Criminal history points range from a 

low of 30.2 percent of offenders with zero criminal history points to a high 

of 85.7 percent for offenders with 15 or more criminal history points. In fact, 

each additional criminal history point is generally associated with a greater 

likelihood of recidivism. For example, the rearrest rate of offenders with three 

total criminal history points is 52.7 percent, compared to 59.4 percent for 

offenders with four criminal history points. This pattern continues even at 

higher total points, with rearrest rates ranging from 71.1 percent (offenders 

with seven criminal history points), 74.0 percent (offenders with eight criminal 

history points), and 76.1 percent (offenders with nine criminal history points). 

Because an offender’s criminal history points determine the CHC to which the 

offender is assigned, recidivism rates are also correlated with the CHC. That is, 

the higher the CHC (a result of more prior crimes and/or more serious crimes), 

the higher the recidivism rate. Rearrest rates ranged from a low of 33.8 percent 

for offenders in CHC I to a high of 80.1 percent for offenders in CHC VI. 

Criminal History Category (CHC) I II III IV V VI

Total Criminal History Points (0 or 1) (2 or 3) (4, 5, 6) (7, 8, 9) (10, 11, 12) (13 or more)

30.2%

46.9%

56.0% 52.7%

59.4% 63.3% 66.8% 71.1% 74.0% 76.1% 77.3% 77.2% 76.4% 78.9% 79.8%

85.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=10,600)

1

(n=2,973)

2

(n=1,251)

3

(n=1,838)

4

(n=1,361)

5

(n=1,041)

6

(n=1,277)

7

(n=693)

8

(n=741)

9

(n=708)

10

(n=463)

11

(n=413)

12

(n=368)

13

(n=261)

14

(n=237)

15 or more

(n=1,121)

Criminal History Points

Figure 1. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were 

missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 
Part Two: 

KEY FACTS AND STUDY GROUP

8 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders

 Offenders assigned to CHC II (two or three criminal history points) had rearrest rates of 56.0 percent and 52.7 percent. Offenders in CHC III had rearrest 

rates of 59.4 percent for offenders with four criminal history points, increasing 

to 66.8 percent for offenders with six criminal history points. Offenders in 

CHC IV had rearrest rates in the low- to mid-seventies, offenders in CHC V had 

rearrest rates in the mid-seventies, and offenders in CHC VI had rearrest rates 

in the high seventies and above. While there are differences in rearrest rates 

within each CHC, the greatest difference between rearrest rates for offenders 

assigned to the same CHC but who have a difference of only one criminal history 

point were offenders in CHC I. CHC I includes offenders with either zero or one 

criminal history point. An increase of only one additional point from zero to one 

was associated with a 16.7 percent increase in the rearrest rate—from 30.2 percent for offenders with zero criminal history points to 46.9 percent for offenders 

with one criminal history point. 

Because of the sizeable difference in the rearrest rates for offenders within 

CHC I, the Commission further analyzed the offenders with zero or one criminal 

history point and found additional differences. Offenders with zero criminal 

history points were slightly slower to recidivate, with a median time to rearrest 

of 27 months compared to 25 months for offenders with one criminal history 

point. For offenders who were rearrested, the Commission ranked new offenses 

in order of seriousness. If an offender was rearrested multiple times or had 

multiple charges in an arrest, the most serious offense according to this ranking 

was counted as the most serious post-release event. Using this method, 

offenders with zero criminal history points committed less serious new offenses 

than offenders with one criminal history point. The most common new offense 

committed by offenders with zero criminal history points were public order 

offenses (21.7%) compared to assault (23.0%) for offenders with one criminal 

history point.

The Commission further studied offenders with zero criminal history points 

to determine whether there were discernible differences within that group of 

offenders. Specifically, some offenders with zero criminal history points had no 

prior contact with the criminal justice system; that is, they did not have arrests 

or convictions prior to the instant offense of conviction. Other offenders with 

zero criminal history points had prior contact with the criminal justice system; 

that is, they had prior arrests that did not lead to convictions or they had 

convictions that did not receive points due to the age of the conviction or the 

minor nature of the crime.24 

33.8%

54.3%

63.3%

74.7% 77.8% 80.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CH Category I

(n = 13,581)

CH Category II

(n = 3,084)

CH Category III

(n = 3,616)

CH Category IV

(n =1,996)

CH Category V

(n =1,121)

CH Category VI

(n =1,923)

Criminal History Category

Figure 2. 

Rearrerst Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Category

No Criminal History Convictions/Prior

Contact

One Point

Rearrest Rate 25.7% 37.4% 46.9%

Time to Rearrest 27 months 27 months 25 months

Most Serious Rearrest

Event

Public order 

(21.9%)

Public order 

(21.4%)

Assault 

(23.0%)

TOTAL 6,543 4,053 2,972

Table 1. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Category I

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were 

missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were 

missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders 9

The Commission found differences in the recidivism rates between offenders 

with zero criminal history points who did and did not have prior contact with 

the criminal justice system. 25 Overall, offenders with zero criminal history 

points had a rearrest rate of 30.2 percent. However, offenders who had no prior 

contact with the criminal justice system had a rearrest rate 11.7 percentage 

points lower than offenders with prior contact (25.7% compared to 37.4%). 

Both groups had a lower rearrest rate than offenders with one criminal history 

point (46.9%).

Aside from the difference in recidivism rates, the Commission did not find 

additional substantial differences between the two groups of offenders with 

zero criminal history points. Offenders with zero criminal history points who 

did not have prior contact with the criminal justice system both had a median 

time to rearrest of 27 months and had a public order offense as the most 

common post-release offense (21.9% for those with no prior criminal history 

contact and 21.4% for those with prior criminal history contact). 

The median time to rearrest decreased as CHC increased. Offenders in 

CHC I had a median time to rearrest of 26 months, compared to 14 months 

for offenders in CHC VI. Assault was the most serious post-release event for 

offenders in CHCs II through VI. Roughly a quarter of those who were rearrested 

in each of those categories were rearrested for assault. 

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Category I Category II Category III Category IV Category V Category VI

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Data File, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Figure 3. 

Time to First Rearrest of Recidivism Study Offenders by Number of Years Since Release
Part Two: 

KEY FACTS AND STUDY GROUP

10 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders

Recidivism By One, Two, and Three-Point Offenders

The Commission performed additional analyses to study whether the 

manner in which criminal history points are assigned for a single prior 

conviction predicts recidivism. Specifically, the Commission grouped 

offenders by the number of criminal history points assigned to any single 

prior conviction and examined the rearrest rates for each group. As discussed 

above, an offender’s past convictions are assigned one, two, or three points 

based on the nature of the offense and sentence. These point assignments 

are designed to reflect the seriousness of the offense of conviction, with 

three-point sentences almost always representing a felony conviction. The 

Commission’s analysis indicates that the number of criminal history points 

assigned to a single prior conviction does predict recidivism. Offenders with 

more serious offenses in their criminal history as reflected in their point 

assignment generally had higher rearrest rates than those with less serious 

sentences. 

Offenders with only one-point sentences were rearrested less often than 

other offenders. For offenders with only one-point sentences in their criminal 

history, 53.4 percent were rearrested compared to 71.3 percent for offenders 

with at least one two-point sentence and 70.5 percent for offenders with 

at least one three-point sentence. Furthermore, within each age category, 

the rearrest rate was substantially lower for offenders with only one-point 

sentences than for offenders with two or three-point sentences.

Offenders with only one-point sentences in their criminal history were also 

slower to recidivate than other offenders. For offenders with only one-point 

sentences in their criminal history, the median time to rearrest was 24 months 

compared to 17 months for offenders with two or three-point sentences. 

Across most age groups, the time to rearrest was longest for offenders with 

only one-point sentences, followed by offenders with two point sentences and 

then three-point sentences.

Regardless of whether offenders had only one-point sentences or more 

serious two-point, or three-point sentences in their criminal history, assault 

was the most common offense of rearrest. For offenders with only one-point 

sentences, assault (24.9%) was the most common offense, followed by public 

order offenses (14.4%). For offenders with two or three-point sentences, 

the most common offenses of rearrest were assault (26.8% and 24.6%, 

respectively) followed by drug trafficking (12.9% and 13.3%, respectively). 

Offenders with Only

1-Point Sentences

Offenders with 2-Point Sentences, 

No 3-Sentences Offenders with 3-Point Sentences

Rearrest Rate 53.4% 71.3% 70.5%

Time to Rearrest 24 months 17 months 17 months

Most Serious Rearrest Event Assault 

(24.9%)

Assault 

(26.8%)

Assault 

(24.6 %)

TOTAL 6,574 2,793 5,386

Offenders with Only 

1-Point Sentences

Offenders with 2-Point Sentences, 

No 3-Point Sentences

Offenders with 

3-Point Sentences

Age Category

TOTAL 

Offenders N RearrestRate

TOTAL 

Offenders N RearrestRate

TOTAL 

Offenders N RearrestRate

LT 21 99 82 82.3% 25 23 92.0% -- -- --

21-25 938 673 71.8% 458 399 87.1% 210 180 85.7%

26-30 1,376 895 65.0% 684 547 80.0% 747 623 83.4%

31-35 1,316 699 53.1% 622 431 69.3% 1,192 920 77.2%

36-40 925 458 49.5% 362 227 62.7% 1,022 736 72.0%

41-45 1,267 553 43.7% 469 286 61.0% 1,448 996 68.8%

51-60 503 126 25.1% 133 60 45.1% 589 282 47.9%

GT 60 150 25 16.7% 40 19 47.5% 174 54 31.0%

TOTAL 6,574 3,511 53.4% 2,793 1,992 71.3% 5,386 3,795 70.5%

Table 2. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Point Types of Past Convictions

Table 3. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Point Types of Previous Convictions

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. -- indicates insufficient number of cases. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders 11

Contrary to the general findings above, offenders with a two-point sentence 

but no three-point sentence had a slightly higher rearrest rate than offenders 

with at least one three-point sentence (71.3% compared to 70.5%). However, 

this was partly due to the substantially younger age distribution for offenders 

with a two-point sentence but no three-point sentence. Half (49.9%) of 

offenders with a two-point sentence but no three-point sentence were age 30 

or younger at the time of release for the instant offense of conviction, compared 

to only 17.8 percent of offenders with at least one three-point sentence. 

Comparing offenders grouped into the same age ranges, for most age ranges 

offenders with a two-point sentence but no three-point sentence generally had 

lower rearrest rates than offenders with a three-point sentence. 

Instant Offense and Recidivism

The Commission also studied the association between an offender’s instant 

offense and recidivism. For the analyses discussed in this part of the report, an 

offender’s federal instant offense is grouped into one of seven broad categories 

based on the primary sentencing guideline that the court applied at sentencing: 

violent, drug trafficking, firearms, immigration, economic crime, child 

pornography, and other offenses not in the previous categories.26

 The primary sentencing guideline is the guideline from Chapter Two of the 

Guidelines Manual that was used to calculate an offender’s offense level. In cases 

where multiple Chapter Two guidelines were applied because the offender had 

multiple counts of conviction for different offenses, the primary sentencing 

guideline is the Chapter Two guideline that ultimately led to the highest 

offense level. The selection of a guideline from Chapter Two is determined 

by a combination of the defendant’s offense or offenses of conviction and 

surrounding conduct.27

TOTAL 

Offenders N %

Offense Category

Violent 1,842 1,180 64.1%

Drug Trafficking 10,888 5,448 50.0%

Firearms 3,167 2,164 68.3%

Immigration 919 506 55.1%

Economic Crime 6,579 2,363 35.9%

Child Pornography 412 155 37.6%

Other 1,609 701 43.6%

TOTAL 25,416 12,517 49.3%

Table 4. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Offense of Conviction

N

Months to 

Recidivism

Offense Category

Violent 1,180 14 

Drug Trafficking 5,448 25 

Firearms 2,164 17 

Immigration 506 16 

Economic Crime 2,363 21 

Child Pornography 155 26 

Other 701 18 

TOTAL 12,517 21

Table 5. 

Median TIme to Rearrest for Recidivism Study Offenders

 by Offense of Conviction

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded 

cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission 

excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 
Offenders convicted of a firearms offense had the highest rearrest rate 

(68.4%), followed by offenders convicted of a violent offense (64.1%), and 

an immigration offense (55.1%). Offenders convicted of an economic crime 

had the lowest rearrest rate (35.9%). Of all offenders who were rearrested, 

offenders convicted of a violent offense had the shortest median time to rearrest 

(14 months), followed by offenders convicted of an immigration offense 

(16 months), and a firearms offense (17 months). Offenders convicted of a 

child pornography offense had the longest median time to rearrest (26 months). 

For all offenders, except for offenders convicted of a child pornography offense, 

assault was one of the top two most common offenses of rearrest. Offenders 

convicted of child pornography offenses were most often rearrested for a public 

order offense as their most serious crime. 

12 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders
Part III

Conclusion
Part Three: 

CONCLUSION

14 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders

Conclusion

As found in previous Commission reports, Criminal History Category is a 

strong predictor of recidivism. The analyses contained in this report show that 

the various components of Chapter Four of the Guidelines Manual, including 

criminal history points, category, and seriousness of past offenses as reflected in 

point assignment to past convictions also are strong predictors of recidivism. 

Criminal History Points and Criminal History Category

Overall, an offender’s total criminal history score is a strong predictor of 

recidivism. Rearrest rates range from a low of 30.2 percent of offenders with 

zero criminal history points to a high of 85.7 percent for offenders with 15 or 

more criminal history points. Each additional criminal history point is generally 

associated with a greater likelihood of recidivism.

Criminal History Category I

There are substantial differences in recidivism rates among groups of 

offenders in CHC I. Among offenders with zero points and no prior contact 

with the criminal justice system, there is an 11.7 percentage point difference 

in rearrest rates. Between offenders with zero criminal history points and 

some criminal history and one-point offenders there is a 10.4 percentage point 

difference. Overall, there is a 22.1 percentage point difference in rearrest rates 

between offenders with no criminal history and one-point offenders. These 

differences within CHC I are substantially larger than the differences within 

other CHCs. In addition, offenders with zero points have a longer median 

time to rearrest and a less serious offense of rearrest than offenders with one 

criminal history point (public order vs. assault). 

One-Point, Two-Point, and Three-Point Sentences

The manner in which Chapter Four of the Guidelines Manual assigns 

criminal history points is designed to reflect that the seriousness of single 

prior convictions is predictive of recidivism. An offender’s past convictions 

are assigned one, two, or three points based on the nature of the offense and 

sentence. These point assignments reflect the seriousness of the offender’s 

past conviction. Offenders with only one-point sentences have significantly 

lower rearrest rates (53.4%) than offenders with a two-point but no three-point 

sentence (71.3%), or offenders with a three-point sentence (70.5%). 
Endnotes
ENDNOTES

16 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders

1 The United States Sentencing Commission (“Commission”) is an independent agency in 

the judicial branch of government. Established by the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, its principal 

purposes are (1) to establish sentencing policies and practices for the federal courts, including 

guidelines regarding the appropriate form and severity of punishment for offenders convicted of 

federal crimes; (2) to advise and assist Congress, the federal judiciary, and the executive branch in 

the development of effective and efficient crime policy; and (3) to collect, analyze, research, and 

distribute a broad array of information on federal crime and sentencing issues. See 28 U.S.C. §§ 

995(a)(14), (15), (20).

2 Pub. L. 98-473, Title II §§ 211-217, 98 Stat. 2027 (Oct. 12, 1984).

3 See U.S. Sentencing Commission, Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A 

Comprehensive Overview 3 (2016), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/researchand-publications/research-publications/2016/recidivism_overview.pdf [hereinafter Recidivism 

Overview Report].

4 28 U.S.C. § 991(b)(2).

5 See U.S. Sentencing Commission, Supplementary Report On The Initial Sentencing 

Guidelines And Policy Statements 41-44 (1987), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/

guidelines-manual/1987/manual-pdf/1987_Supplementary_Report_Initial_Sentencing_Guidelines.

pdf [hereinafter Supplementary Report].

6 See, e.g., U.S. Sentencing Commission, Final Priorities For Amendment Cycle, 79 F.R. 

49378, 49379 (Aug. 20, 2014) (“Pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 994(g), the Commission intends to consider 

the issue of reducing costs of incarceration and overcapacity of prisons, to the extent it is relevant to 

any identified priority.”).

7 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 3, at 3.

8 See, e.g., Supplementary Report, supra note 5; U.S. Sentencing Commission, Report 

to the Congress: Career Offender Sentencing Enhancements (2016), http://www.ussc.gov/

sites/default/files/pdf/news/congressional-testimony-and-reports/criminal-history/201607_RtCCareer-Offenders.pdf [hereinafter “Career Offender Report”]; U.S. Sentencing Commission, 

Report To Congress: Federal Child Pornography Offenses 293-310 (2012), http://www.

ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/news/congressional-testimony-and-reports/sex-offensetopics/201212-federal-child-pornography-offenses/Full_Report_to_Congress.pdf; U.S. Sentencing 

Commission, A Comparison Of The Federal Sentencing Guidelines Criminal History Category 

And The U.S. Parole Commission Salient Factor Score (2005), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/

default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-publications/2005/20050104_Recidivism_

Salient_Factor_Computation.pdf; U.S. Sentencing Commission, Recidivism And The “First 

Offender” (2004), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/

research-publications/2004/200405_Recidivism_First_Offender.pdf; U.S. Sentencing Commission, 

Measuring Recidivism: The Criminal History Computation Of The Federal Sentencing 

Guidelines (2004), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/

research-publications/2004/200405_Recidivism_Criminal_History.pdf [hereinafter Measuring 

Recidivism Report].

9 Each fiscal year begins on October 1 of the preceding calendar year. For example, FY 2006 

began on October 1, 2005, and ended on September 30, 2006. 

10 “Instant offense” refers to the offense of conviction that resulted in an offender being 

included in this study.

11 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 3.

12 See N’atl Institue Of Justice, U.S. Dept. Of Justice, Recidivism, https://web.archive.org/

web/20160120175242/http://www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/recidivism/pages/welcome.aspx 

(last modified June 17 2014).

13 See Michael D. Maltz, Recidivism 7-20 (2001); see also Ryan King & Brian Elderboom, 

Improving Recidivism as a Performance Measure, Urban Institute (2014), https://www.bja.gov/

Publications/UI-ImprovingRecidivism.pdf. 

14 See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional 

Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related 

Background Checks (Feb. 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

15 Revocations were not counted as reconvictions because the offenders were not convicted 

of a new offense (even if the basis for revocation was a “new law violation”). Offenders whose terms 

of supervision were revoked and who were sentenced to imprisonment were treated as having been 

reincarcerated.

16 See supra note 14. 

17 Id. 

18 This section provides a simplified summary of the criminal history calculation for 

those sentences which resulted in points, for purposes of understanding the data set forth in this 

report. Several criminal history rules, including those that apply to stale convictions and revocation 

sentences, are not discussed here. For a complete understanding of the rules that govern criminal 

history see USSG, Ch. 4.

19 USSG §4A1.1. 
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders 17

20 USSG §4A1.2(c). 

21 See USSG App. C, amend. 742 (eff. Nov. 1, 2010).

22 See Appendix, infra, at Tables 1 through 4 (illustrating more detail on demographic and 

offenses by criminal history category).

23 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 3, at 18.

24 USSG §4A1.2(c). 

25 An offender can have criminal history but not receive points if they were arrested but 

not convicted, if they served sentences that were completed over 15 years ago (or five years ago for 

juveniles), or if they were convicted only for traffic offenses. 

26 For more information on the types of offenses included in each category see Appendix, 

infra.

27 This use of the primary sentencing guideline differs from the method used in the 

Recidivism Overview Report, which classified a defendant based on his or her offense of conviction, 

which was the offense with the highest statutory maximum penalty. Future Commission recidivism 

reports will use the primary sentencing guideline classification, which will allow for consistent 

reporting across offenses.

Appendix
APPENDIX

A-2 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix

How Recidivism Is Measured in This Report 

The Commission selected an eight-year follow-up period for its research. 

It considered all recidivism events (including felonies, misdemeanors, and 

“technical” violations of the conditions of supervision), except minor traffic 

offenses, which occurred over that eight-year period. This report primarily 

relies on rearrest data in providing more detailed information about the 

recidivism by criminal history. 

Classification of Instant Offense

An offender’s instant offense was categorized based on the primary 

sentencing guideline that applied at sentencing. This use of the primary 

sentencing guideline differs from the method used in the Recidivism Overview 

Report, which classified a defendant based on his or her offense of conviction, 

which was the offense with the highest statutory maximum penalty. Future 

Commission recidivism reports will use the primary sentencing guideline 

classification, which will allow for consistent reporting across offenses.

The guidelines were grouped into seven categories: violent, drug trafficking, 

firearms, immigration, economic crime, child pornography, and all other 

categories. Below are the guidelines in each offense type:

Violent: §§2A1.1, 2A1.2, 2A1.3, 2A1.4, 2A1.5, 2A2.1, 2A2.2, 2A2.3, 2A2.4, 2A3.1, 

2A3.2, 2A3.3, 2A3.4, 2A3.6, 2A4.1, 2A4.2, 2A5.1, 2A6.2, 2B3.1, 2B3.2, 2E1.3, 

2E1.5, 2G1.2, 2K1.4, 2K1.7

Drug Trafficking: §§2D1.1, 2D1.10, 2D1.14, 2D1.2, 2D1.3, 2D1.4, 2D1.5, 2D1.6, 

2D1.8

Firearms: §§2K1.3, 2K1.5, 2K2.1, 2K2.2, 2K2.3, 2K2.4, 2K2.5, 2K2.6

Immigration: §§2L1.1, 2L1.2, 2L1.3, 2L2.1, 2L2.2, 2L2.3, 2L2.4, 2L2.5

Economic Crime: §§2B1.1, 2B1.2, 2B1.4, 2B1.5, 2B1.6, 2B2.1, 2B2.2, 2B4.1, 

2B5.1, 2B5.2, 2B6.1, 2C1.1, 2C1.2, 2C1.3, 2C1.4, 2C1.5, 2C1.6, 2C1.7, 2E1.1, 2E1.2, 

2E1.4, 2E2.1, 2E5.1, 2E5.2, 2E5.4, 2F1.1, 2F1.2, 2N3.1, 2R1.1, 2S1.1, 2S1.2, 2S1.3, 

2S1.4, 2T1.1, 2T1.2, 2T1.3, 2T1.4, 2T1.5, 2T1.6, 2T1.7, 2T1.8, 2T1.9, 2T2.1, 

2T2.2, 2T3.1, 2T3.2, 2T4.1

Child Pornography: §§2G1.3, 2G2.1, 2G2.2, 2G2.3, 2G2.4, 2G2.6, 2G3.1

All other: §§2A3.5, 2A5.2, 2A5.3, 2A6.1 2B1.3, 2B2.3, 2B3.3, 2B5.3, 2B5.4, 2C1.8, 

2D1.11, 2D1.12, 2D1.13, 2D1.7, 2D1.9, 2D2.1, 2D2.2, 2D2.3, 2D3.1, 2D3.2, 2D3.3, 

2D3.4, 2D3.5, 2E3.1, 2E3.2, 2E3.3, 2E4.1, 2E5.3, 2E5.5, 2E5.6, 2G1.1, 2G2.5, 

2G3.2 2H1.1, 2H1.2, 2H1.3, 2H1.4, 2H1.5, 2H2.1, 2H3.1, 2H3.2, 2H3.3, 2H4.1, 

2H4.2, 2J1.1, 2J1.2, 2J1.3, 2J1.4, 2J1.5, 2J1.6, 2J1.7, 2J1.8, 2J1.9, 2K1.1, 2K1.2, 

2K1.6, 2K3.1, 2K3.2, 2M1.1, 2M2.1, 2M2.2, 2M2.3, 2M2.4, 2M3.1, 2M3.2, 2M3.3, 

2M3.4, 2M3.5, 2M3.6, 2M3.7, 2M3.8, 2M3.9, 2M4.1, 2M5.1, 2M5.2, 2M5.3, 2M6.1, 

2M6.2, 2N1.1, 2N1.2, 2N1.3, 2N2.1, 2P1.1, 2P1.2, 2P1.3, 2P1.4, 2Q1.1, 2Q1.2, 

2Q1.3, 2Q1.4, 2Q1.5, 2Q1.6, 2Q2.1, 2Q2.2, 2X1.1, 2X2.1, 2X3.1, 2X4.1, 2X5.1, 

2X5.2, 2X6.1, 2X7.1
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix A-3

Gender of Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Category

TOTAL

Offenders Male Female

Criminal History Category N N % N %

CHC I 13,575 10,096 74.4% 3,479 25.6%

CHC II 3,084 2,619 84.9% 465 15.1%

CHC III 3,615 3,221 89.1% 394 10.9%

CHC IV 1,994 1,850 92.8% 144 7.2%

CHC V 1,121 1,055 94.1% 66 5.9%

CHC VI 1,923 1,812 94.2% 111 5.8%

TOTAL 25,312 20,653 4,659

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. 
APPENDIX

A-4 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix

Race of Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Category

TOTAL

Offenders White Black Hispanic Other

Criminal History Category N N % N % N % N %

 CHC I 13,570 6,608 48.7% 3,332 24.6% 2,797 20.6% 833 6.1%

 CHC II 3,081 1,314 42.7% 1,125 36.5% 540 17.5% 102 3.3%

 CHC III 3,612 1,315 36.4% 1,606 44.5% 568 15.7% 123 3.4%

 CHC IV 1,995 700 35.1% 976 48.9% 260 13.0% 59 3.0%

 CHC V 1,117 398 35.6% 548 49.1% 144 12.9% 27 2.4%

 CHC VI 1,922 738 38.4% 966 50.3% 188 9.8% 30 1.6%

 TOTAL 25,297 11,073 8,553 4,497 1,174

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. 
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix A-5

Median Age of Recidivism Study Offenders at Release

 by Criminal History Category

Criminal History 

Category N Median Age

CHC I 13,549 35

CHC II 3,082 31

CHC III 3,610 30

CHC IV 1,995 30

CHC V 1,119 31

CHC VI 1,921 33

TOTAL 25,276 33

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission 

excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 
APPENDIX

A-6 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix

Age of Recidivism Study Offenders at Release by

 Criminal History Category

TOTAL 

Offenders

TOTAL

Percent LT 21 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 51-60 GT 60

Criminal History 

Category N % N % N % N % N % N % N % N %

CHC I 13,549 100.0% 313 2.3% 1,807 13.3% 2,065 15.2% 1,989 14.7% 1,871 13.8% 2,963 21.9% 1,769 13.1% 772 5.7%

CHC II 3,082 100.0% 43 1.4% 383 12.4% 609 19.8% 599 19.4% 438 14.2% 641 20.8% 276 9.0% 93 3.0%

CHC III 3,610 100.0% 28 0.8% 436 12.1% 780 21.6% 802 22.2% 514 14.2% 708 19.6% 251 7.0% 91 2.5%

CHC IV 1,995 100.1% 11 0.6% 231 11.6% 424 21.3% 475 23.8% 321 16.1% 359 18.0% 144 7.2% 30 1.5%

CHC V 1,119 100.0% 3 0.3% 79 7.1% 216 19.3% 279 24.9% 182 16.3% 264 23.6% 81 7.2% 15 1.3%

CHC VI 1,921 100.1% 0 0.0% 48 2.5% 218 11.4% 418 21.8% 408 21.2% 587 30.6% 199 10.4% 43 2.2%

TOTAL 25,276 398 2,984 4,312 4,562 3,734 5,522 2,720 1,044

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Totals may not add to 100.0% due to rounding. 
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix A-7

Reconviction Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders

by Criminal History Points

17.4%

28.8%

34.5% 31.9%

38.9% 41.8% 42.5%

46.2%

52.0% 53.3% 53.1% 55.5% 58.2% 55.6%

60.3%

66.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=10,600)

1

(n=2,973)

2

(n=1,251)

3

(n=1,838)

4

(n=1,361)

5

(n=1,041)

6

(n=1,277)

7

(n=693)

8

(n=741)

9

(n=708)

10

(n=463)

11

(n=413)

12

(n=368)

13

(n=261)

14

(n=237)

15 or more

(n=1,121)

Criminal History Points SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform 

the analysis. 
APPENDIX

A-8 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix

Reincarceration Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders 

by Criminal History Points

12.2%

20.2%

24.2% 23.6%

29.5%

34.1% 34.6%

38.0%

43.5% 46.1% 46.4% 48.7% 50.3% 47.5%

51.5%

57.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=10,600)

1

(n=2,973)

2

(n=1,251)

3

(n=1,838)

4

(n=1,361)

5

(n=1,041)

6

(n=1,277)

7

(n=693)

8

(n=741)

9

(n=708)

10

(n=463)

11

(n=413)

12

(n=368)

13

(n=261)

14

(n=237)

15 or more

(n=1,121)

Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. 
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix A-9

Reconviction Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders

by Criminal History Category

19.9%

33.0%

41.3%

51.6%

56.6% 59.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CH Category I

(n=13,581)

CH Category II

(n=3,084)

CH Category III

(n=3,616)

CH Category IV

(n=1,996)

CH Category V

(n=1,121)

CH Category VI

(n=1,923)

Criminal History Category

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this 

analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 
APPENDIX

A-10 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix

Reincarceration Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders

 by Criminal History Category

14.0%

23.9%

32.9%

43.5%

49.4% 51.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CH Category I

(n=13,581)

CH Category II

(n=3,084)

CH Category III

(n=3,616)

CH Category IV

(n=1,996)

CH Category V

(n=1,121)

CH Category VI

(n=1,923)

Criminal History Category

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this 

analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix A-11

Reconviction Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders 

by Point Types of Past Convictions

Reconviction Rate 33.3% 50.0% 48.6%

Time to Reconviction 33 months 26 months 26 months

Most Serious Reconviction Event Other Public Order (16.9%) Other Public Order (16.5%) Other Public Order (16.4%)

TOTAL 6,574 2,793 5,386

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary

to perform the analysis.

Offenders with

Only 1-Point Offenses

Offenders with 2-Point Offenses,

No 3-Point Offenses Offenders with 3-Point Offenses
A-12 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix

APPENDIX

Reincarceration Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders 

by Point Types of Past Convictions

Reincarceration Rate 24.0% 41.6% 41.1%

Timeto Reincarceration 31 months 26 months 26 months

Most Serious Reincarceration Event Other Public Order (20.3%) Other Public Order (20.8%) Other Public Order (19.1%)

TOTAL 6,574 2,793 5,386

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary

to perform the analysis.

Offenders with

Only 1-Point Offenses

Offenders with 2-Point Offenses,

No 3-Point Offenses Offenders with 3-Point Offenses
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix A-13

Reconviction Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders 

by Point Types of Previous Convictions

Offenders with Only 

1-Point Offenses

Offenders with 2-Point Offenses, 

No 3-Point Offenses

Offenders with 3-Point Offenses

Age Category

TOTAL

Offenders

N Reconviction

Rate

TOTAL

Offenders

N Reconviction

Rate

TOTAL

Offenders

N Reconviction

Rate

LT 21 99 63 63.6% 25 19 76.0% -- -- --

21-25 938 478 51.0% 458 320 69.9% 210 143 68.1%

26-30 1,376 562 40.8% 684 395 57.8% 747 460 61.6%

31-35 1,316 424 32.2% 622 282 45.3% 1,192 635 53.3%

36-40 925 258 27.9% 362 155 42.8% 1,022 511 50.0%

41-45 1,267 318 25.1% 469 181 38.6% 1,448 668 46.1%

51-60 503 65 12.9% 133 34 25.6% 589 165 28.0%

GT 60 150 19 12.7% 40 10 25.0% 174 31 17.8%

TOTAL 6,574 2,187 33.3% 2,793 1,396 50.0% 5,386 2,616 48.6%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. -- indicates insufficient number of cases.
A-14 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix

APPENDIX

Reincarceration Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders 

by Point Types of Previous Convictions

Offenders with Only 

1-Point Offenses

Offenders with 2-Point Offenses, 

No 3-Point Offenses Offenders with 3-Point Offenses

Age Category

TOTAL

Offenders N ReincarcerationRate

TOTAL

Offenders N ReincarcerationRate

TOTAL

Offenders N ReincarcerationRate

LT 21 99 48 48.5% 25 17 68.0% -- -- --

21-25 938 363 38.7% 458 279 60.9% 210 127 60.5%

26-30 1,376 408 29.7% 684 334 48.8% 747 382 51.1%

31-35 1,316 301 22.9% 622 233 37.5% 1,192 537 45.1%

36-40 925 181 19.6% 362 121 33.4% 1,022 436 42.7%

41-45 1,267 218 17.2% 469 141 30.1% 1,448 567 39.2%

51-60 503 48 9.5% 133 28 21.1% 589 137 23.3%

GT 60 150 11 7.3% 40 8 20.0% 174 26 14.9%

TOTAL 6,574 1,578 24.0% 2,793 1,161 41.6% 5,386 2,215 41.1%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. -- indicates insufficient number of cases.
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix A-15

Reconviction Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders 

by Offense of Conviction

TOTAL 

Offenders N %

Offense Category

Violent 1,842 805 43.7%

Drug Trafficking 10,888 3,357 30.8%

Firearms 3,167 1,509 47.7%

Immigration 919 342 37.2%

Economic Crime 6,579 1,484 22.6%

Child Pornography 412 87 21.1%

Other 1,609 473 29.4%

TOTAL 25,416 8,057 31.7%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary

to perform the analysis.
A-16 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix

APPENDIX

Reincarceration Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders 

by Offense of Conviction

TOTAL 

Offenders N %

Offense Category

Violent 1,842 705 38.3%

Drug Trafficking 10,888 2,546 23.4%

Firearms 3,167 1,234 39.0%

Immigration 919 275 29.9%

Economic Crime 6,579 1,085 16.5%

Child Pornography 412 68 16.5%

Other 1,609 348 21.6%

TOTAL 25,416 6,261 24.6%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary

to perform the analysis.
Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix A-17

Median Time to Reconviction of Recidivism Study Offenders by 

Offense of Conviction

Offense Category

Violent 761 21

Drug Trafficking 3,218 34

Firearms 1,455 26

Immigration 326 24

Economic Crime 1,360 29

Child Pornography 73 24

Other 449 27

TOTAL 7,642 30

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission 

excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

N Months to Recidivism
A-18 Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders—Appendix

APPENDIX

Median Time to Reincarceration of Recidivism Study Offenders by 

Offense of Conviction

Offense Category

Violent 661 22

Drug Trafficking 2,407 33

Firearms 1,180 26

Immigration 259 24

Economic Crime 961 28

Child Pornography 54 25

Other 324 27

TOTAL 5,846 29

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission 

excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

N Months to Recidivism