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EXTREME WEATHER AND COASTAL 

FLOODING: WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW, 

WHAT IS THE FUTURE RISK, 

AND WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT? 

FIELD HEARING 

BEFORE THE

COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, 

SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION 

UNITED STATES SENATE 

ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS 

FIRST SESSION 

APRIL 10, 2017 

Printed for the use of the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation 

( 

(II) 

SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION 

ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS 

FIRST SESSION 

JOHN THUNE, South Dakota, Chairman 

ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi 

ROY BLUNT, Missouri 

TED CRUZ, Texas 

DEB FISCHER, Nebraska 

JERRY MORAN, Kansas 

DAN SULLIVAN, Alaska 

DEAN HELLER, Nevada 

JAMES INHOFE, Oklahoma 

MIKE LEE, Utah 

RON JOHNSON, Wisconsin 

SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO, West Virginia 

CORY GARDNER, Colorado 

TODD YOUNG, Indiana 

BILL NELSON, Florida, Ranking 

MARIA CANTWELL, Washington 

AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota 

RICHARD BLUMENTHAL, Connecticut 

BRIAN SCHATZ, Hawaii 

EDWARD MARKEY, Massachusetts 

CORY BOOKER, New Jersey 

TOM UDALL, New Mexico 

GARY PETERS, Michigan 

TAMMY BALDWIN, Wisconsin 

TAMMY DUCKWORTH, Illinois 

MAGGIE HASSAN, New Hampshire 

CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, Nevada 

NICK ROSSI, Staff Director 

ADRIAN ARNAKIS, Deputy Staff Director 

JASON VAN BEEK, General Counsel 

KIM LIPSKY, Democratic Staff Director 

CHRIS DAY, Democratic Deputy Staff Director 

RENAE BLACK, Senior Counsel 

(III) 

C O N T E N T S 

Page 

Hearing held on April 10, 2017 .............................................................................. 1 

Statement of Senator Nelson .................................................................................. 1 

WITNESSES

Hon. Ted Deutch, U.S. Representative from Florida ............................................ 4 

Hon. Jeri Muoio, Mayor, West Palm Beach, Florida ............................................ 5 

Hon. Paulette Burdick, Mayor, Palm Beach County, Florida .............................. 7 

Ben Kirtman, Ph.D., Director, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, and Director, Center for Computational Science, Climate, 

and Environmental Hazards, University of Miami ........................................... 9 

Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 10 

Leonard ‘‘Len’’ Berry, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor, Geosciences, Florida Atlantic 

University, and Vice President, Government Programs, Coastal Risk Consulting, LLC .......................................................................................................... 19 

Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 20 

Carl G. Hedde, CPCU, Head, Risk Accumulation Department, Munich Reinsurance America Inc. ........................................................................................... 35 

Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 36 

Dr. Jennifer L. Jurado, Chief Resilience Officer and Director, Environmental 

Planning and Community Resilience Division, Broward County, Florida ...... 39 

Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 41 

APPENDIX

Response to written questions submitted by Hon. Bill Nelson to: 

Ben Kirtman, Ph.D. .......................................................................................... 55 

Leonard ‘‘Len’’ Berry, Ph.D. ............................................................................. 55 

Carl G. Hedde ................................................................................................... 56 

Dr. Jennifer Jurado .......................................................................................... 57 

(1) 

EXTREME WEATHER AND COASTAL 

FLOODING: WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW, 

WHAT IS THE FUTURE RISK, 

AND WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT? 

MONDAY, APRIL 10, 2017 

U.S. SENATE, 

COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION, 

West Palm Beach, FL. 

The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 1:38 p.m., City of 

West Palm Beach Commission Chambers, 401 Clematis Street, 

West Palm Beach, Florida, Hon. Bill Nelson presiding. 

Present: Senator Nelson [presiding]. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. BILL NELSON, 

U.S. SENATOR FROM FLORIDA 

Senator NELSON. The meeting of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation will come to order. 

This is a field hearing that is being held by the Senate Committee. We have had these kinds of field hearings many times before, but on the subject of the day, extreme weather and coastal 

flooding—in other words, sea-level rise and climate change—we 

had an identical hearing 3 years ago in what was then ground zero 

in Miami Beach. And so this record will be compiled with the other 

records of the Committee that are occurring in Washington on this 

topic that we will be hearing our witnesses discuss today. 

I want to welcome all of you. 

If we may first have Reverend Gerald Kisner of Tabernacle Missionary Baptist Church, if he will give us our Invocation? 

Reverend KISNER. Thank you, Senator and Mayor. Let us pray. 

God of Creation, Creator, again, we come into your divine and 

magnificence presence. First of all, thank you for the lifegiving 

force that you give to each and every one of us. We thank you that 

you are a God of creation. We pray, Lord, even as these deliberations and these testimonies are lifted up, that all will be done to 

help maintain our job as the custodians of your creation, be with 

all, that we might do the thing that is pleasing in thine sight. And, 

Lord, as always, we will be careful to thank you. We lift up this 

prayer, the only one that matters. Amen. 

Senator NELSON. Thank you, Reverend Kisner. 

Now, we have a treat. For our Pledge of Allegiance, we have students from The Greene School, and they are going to come up and 

lead us in the Pledge of Allegiance. 

So, students, if you can come up? 

2 

[Pledge of Allegiance.] 

Senator NELSON. Thank you so much. 

Thank you to everybody for coming. This is an extraordinary 

turnout. There is obviously a lot of interest in the subject matter, 

and we appreciate so much your being here. I want to welcome you, 

as I said, to an official meeting of the Commerce, Science, and 

Transportation Committee. We are doing this because we sit at 

ground zero of the impacts of climate change in the U.S. 

While there are still some who continue to deny that climate 

change is real, South Florida offers proof that it is real and it is 

an issue we are going to have to confront in the decades ahead. All 

of us here today know that Florida is particularly vulnerable to the 

effects of climate change. We have over 1,200 miles of coastline, 

more than any other state in the continental U.S., and over threequarters of our state’s residents live in coastal areas. 

Florida is also quite flat. The highest point in the peninsula of 

Florida is in the center of the state near Lake Wales at Bok Tower, 

and it is only 345 feet high. 

Our communities are already experiencing regular, nuisance 

flooding, especially during the king tides. 

You can see a photograph taken in Miami Beach in 2015. Here 

is a gentleman trying to walk across the street. That is just a year 

and a half ago. Obviously, the floodwater there reaches above the 

curb. And it has gotten so extreme that, if you look at this photograph, you will see the sea creatures are showing up in bizarre 

places. Here is an octopus in a parking garage. 

The National Academy of Sciences found that 67 percent of the 

nuisance floods in the U.S. are being driven by human-caused global sea-level rise. In Miami Beach, tide-induced flooding has increased by more than 400 percent in the last decade. In southeast 

Florida, sea-level rise has tripled since 2006. 

The resulting impacts of coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion, 

storm surge, and land erosion on the Florida coast has prompted 

local governments to act. And that is one of the reasons we wanted 

to bring a field hearing of the Commerce Committee here to South 

Florida, because you will be hearing from some of those local governments. 

Here in Palm Beach County, more than 20 acres of beach and 

sand dunes had to be restored following Hurricane Sandy to better 

protect shoreside communities from flooding and severe weather. 

Observations such as these—not models, not projections, but 

data—tell us that the average global sea-level rise is happening. 

We had a NASA scientist 3 years ago in Miami Beach. You may 

have read about this scientist, because he was the scientist who 

was also an astronaut, and he worked until his last moment that 

he could function, since he had incurable pancreatic cancer. He testified 3 years ago that measurements—that is not forecast, that is 

not projections—measurements over the last 40 years were showing 5 inches to 8 inches in South Florida of sea-level rise. 

So the rising ocean temperatures also have been linked to increasing hurricane activity and intensity as hurricanes draw more 

energy from the warm water. 

Now you wonder, why is all of this happening? As we emit more 

and more greenhouse gas, specifically carbon dioxide, CO2, and, in 

3 

some cases, sulfur dioxide, SO2, and those gases rise, they create 

in the upper atmosphere the greenhouse effect. 

So if you are familiar with a greenhouse, it has a ceiling of glass. 

It lets in the sunlight but then it traps the heat, thus a greenhouse. So too, without the pollutants in the upper atmosphere, the 

sun’s rays would come and reflect off of the Earth. Some of the 

heat would be retained but a lot of them radiate back out into 

space. When you put a ceiling up there, a ceiling of CO2 and SO2, it acts like a greenhouse glass top. It traps the heat from radiating 

out into space and, thus, starts to heat the Earth. 

Two-thirds of the Earth is covered with water. What happens to 

water when it heats up? It expands. And, thus, you see the phenomenon that is happening in this country. 

In 2016 alone, there were 15 weather and climate disaster events 

that caused over $1 billion in damage each and resulted in 138 

deaths across the country. In the first three months of this year, 

there have been five more events with losses exceeding $1 billion. 

These included a flood, a freeze, and three severe storms. Five is 

the largest number of billion-dollar events for January to March 

ever recorded. 

Sea-level rise will worsen the issue by creating deeper waters 

near shore, causing higher waves and stronger storm surges, especially during hurricanes. This is especially concerning considering 

that 79 percent of Florida’s economy is generated in coastal communities, and over $130 billion in beach real estate is at risk. 

So what can we do about it? Well, first, we need to be clear about 

the facts that are presented to the public and fight against the political censorship of our climate scientists and their data. If a doctor were barred from using the word ‘‘cancer,’’ he or she cannot do 

his job. The same is true with scientists and the work that they 

do to understand and educate the public about the Earth’s increasing fever. 

Now if you think I am kidding, I want you to know that I have 

gone out to some of the agencies of the Federal Government and 

they are being warned not to use the term ‘‘climate change.’’ And 

of course, we have had our own experience here in the state of 

Florida by a similar message being given by the Administration in 

this state to State employees of not using the term ‘‘climate 

change.’’ 

So at the end of the day, what we have to do is limit the greenhouse gas emissions, but we must also create more resilient communities. And I want to take the opportunity to applaud, to really 

congratulate and to thank and to applaud Palm Beach, Broward, 

Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties for their work on the Southeast 

Florida Regional Climate Change Compact and the City of Punta 

Gorda on the West Coast and the City of Satellite Beach further 

north on the East Coast for their sea-level rise adaptation planning 

and their efforts to become more resilient communities. 

And I know that they will keep up this work, and I hope that 

others will follow their lead. And I believe that, at the Federal 

level, we should be providing more tools to these communities, not 

less. 

Now, lest you think that we are all in a period of partisan warfare and ideological extremism, which someone could conclude that 

4 

by watching the news, I want you to know that, in the past two 

weeks, I have had two separate conversations with Vice President 

Pence on trying to get a bipartisan infrastructure bill going. Of 

course, the infrastructure that you will hear about in Miami Beach 

and the South Florida compact is extremely expensive infrastructure. Miami Beach has already spent millions and millions of dollars on the big, big pumps to get that water out of the streets when 

it comes, and to raise the level of the streets. 

So, before I introduce the distinguished panel, I want to turn to 

our colleagues here, and I want to hear from them. Before I do, let 

me introduce the elected officials that are here in the audience. 

Hold your applause, please. 

If you all will stand and remain standing, we can recognize you 

all at once. 

County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay of Palm Beach County; 

Martin County Commissioner Doug Smith; Martin County Commissioner Ed Fielding; Mayor of the Town of Palm Beach, Gail 

Coniglio—thank you, Mayor; Riviera Beach Councilwoman Dawn 

Pardo; Kim Ciklin, representing County Commissioner Hal 

Valeche; Marian Dozier, representing State Senator Bobby Powell; 

Charity Lewis, representing Congresswoman Lois Frankel; 

Jervonte Edmonds, representing Florida House Representative Al 

Jacquet; West Palm Beach Commissioner Materio; Congressman 

Hastings being represented by Dan Liftman; County Commissioner 

Dave Kerner, I think Danna White is representing him; and Lori 

Berman, our State Representative. 

Now let’s welcome them. 

[Applause.] 

Senator NELSON. All right, we have a star-studded panel up 

here. I want you to know that I, as is appropriate and respectful, 

even though I am the only Senator here from the Commerce Committee, I invited the entire Congressional delegation from South 

Florida, Republicans and Democrats. And for one reason or another, and I make no inferences here—this is the Easter recess and 

Passover starts tonight at sundown. So there were a number of 

folks that just simply could not be here. 

But I am very pleased that one of the South Florida delegation, 

Congressman Ted Deutch, is here. 

So, Congressman, your opening comments? 

STATEMENT OF HON. TED DEUTCH, 

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM FLORIDA 

Mr. DEUTCH. Thanks very much, Senator Nelson. I will be heading out as soon as this is over to help prepare matzo ball soup. 

[Laughter.] 

Mr. DEUTCH. I really appreciate your holding this hearing here 

in Palm Beach County. Climate change and coastal flooding is not 

a threat to our future in South Florida. It is, as you know, a threat 

today. 

The challenges require immediate action. I want to thank you for 

bringing us together for this critical hearing. 

I also want to thank our witnesses, the private sector, the public 

sector, universities all well represented here and speak to the kind 

5 

of broad-based approach that we are taking here in South Florida 

and nationally. 

Recently, NOAA confirmed that 2016 was the warmest year on 

record, something that we have heard but need to do something 

about. 

Rising sea levels and coastal flooding are forcing real estate lenders to consider sea-level rise before issuing 30-year mortgages. Recent studies have predicted that one million Florida homes will be 

underwater by the year 2100 if we do not act. That translates to 

one in 8 homes, which would take a devastating toll on the real estate market, $413 billion in losses, if we do not take this seriously. 

In South Florida, we have sea-level rises 10 times the global 

rate. Our porous limestone peninsula fills with water that floods 

homes and spills over seawalls. The king tides, as you pointed out, 

Senator, are bringing floodwaters into our streets on sunny days 

each year. 

And that is why this area is so important. We have to be prepared with mitigation plans and investments in adaptation. 

And our local leaders cannot do it alone. Reducing the impact of 

climate change is going to require interaction at a serious level between Federal, State, local, and the private sectors to rise above 

those challenges to find common ground. 

That is why, last year, in the House, we founded a bipartisan climate solution caucus, which is a first of its kind in Congress. We 

are focused on building our bipartisan membership. We have a 

good showing already from Florida Congressman Ros-Lehtinen; 

Congressman Mast; Congressman Crist; Carlos Curbelo, the Congressman from Miami-Dade, who is my Co-Chair; and there are 

lots of other Members who are anxiously waiting to get on, but can 

only join when a Democrat and a Republican join together. 

In total, we have pulled 38 Members thus far aboard evenly split. 

Seventeen states are represented from diverse regions, each reflecting the varied challenges presented by climate change. 

This hearing today gives us the opportunity to explore these 

issues in a very public way to make a record, Senator Nelson, that 

we are grateful that you will make and take back to Washington 

to share with your fellow members of the Commerce Committee so 

that, hopefully, we can start to see the sort of coming together that 

is necessary, and that is starting today here, thanks to you. 

I appreciate it very much. Thanks, Senator Nelson. 

Senator NELSON. Thank you, Congressman. 

We are here at the kind invitation of the City of Palm Beach, and 

we are so pleased that you could join us, Mayor Jeri Muoio. 

STATEMENT OF HON. JERI MUOIO, MAYOR, 

WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA 

Ms. MUOIO. Thank you, Senator. We are so happy to have you 

here in West Palm Beach. I just wanted to say that, in West Palm 

Beach, we say the words ‘‘climate change,’’ and we say them frequently. We are very active. And I want to thank you for being 

here, first of all, and for holding this hearing. 

I want to welcome our witnesses and, of course, welcome all the 

guests who are here this afternoon who have undertaken this. 

6 

In West Palm Beach, it has been very clear to us that climate 

change is occurring. We see it happening. 

And I want to thank you, Senator Nelson, for very clearly explaining why we are seeing sea-level rise and why this is happening in our coastal regions. 

What I would like to do is just take a couple minutes to talk 

about some of the things that we have done here in West Palm 

Beach. 

We have had a sustainability action plan since 2008, and we 

have been working on that. We have these green bottles here that 

say, ‘‘Rethink Paradise.’’ That is the title of our sustainability action plan. Penni Redford, who is the Manager of the Mayor’s Office 

for Sustainability, she and I had the opportunity to go to Paris to 

attend the COP 21 meetings and to urge national leaders to commit to addressing climate change and making sure that there is a 

lowering of our temperature by a significant portion. 

We have committed to that. I hope the United States will remain 

committed to it. 

Here in West Palm Beach, we have committed to Net Zero by 

2050. We have already begun to decrease our carbon emissions and 

have made a significant difference in that. 

We have also pledged, by 2025, to turn over our fleet to non-fossil-fuel, and we are working on that diligently. It is not all that 

easy because there are not a lot of options out there for vehicles. 

We have a storm water master plan that we are working on that 

is going to make a significant difference in how we manage storm 

water. We are already seeing storm water intrusion on Flagler 

Drive, especially during king tide and when we have water events, 

rain events. It really will make a big difference. 

Our city has committed to a Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, the world’s largest cooperative effort among mayors and city officials. 

So we are very proud of that. And one of the things we are most 

proud of is that we were recently awarded a four-star rating by the 

Star Community Rating System. We are the only city in Florida to 

have achieved a four-star rating, and only a handful of cities in the 

country have achieved a five-star rating, so we are working on that 

diligently. 

We have adopted new green building requirements, because we 

are going to have to address sea-level rise. We are talking about 

freeboarding. We are talking about alternative fuels as part of our 

Energy Secure Cities Coalition. We are moving forward with making sure that West Palm Beach is going to be a sustainable city as 

well as a resilient city. 

So thank you for being here. We are very proud and honored that 

you chose to be here, and I am looking forward to hearing the testimony this afternoon. 

Thank you. 

Senator NELSON. Thank you, Madam Mayor. 

And we are delighted to be here in Palm Beach County, and we 

have our County Mayor with us, Paulette Burdick, to share with 

us. 

7 

STATEMENT OF HON. PAULETTE BURDICK, MAYOR, 

PALM BEACH COUNTY, FLORIDA 

Ms. BURDICK. Good afternoon, Senator. Welcome to Palm Beach 

County. As Mayor of the County, we are pleased and honored that 

you chose West Palm Beach, which is one of our cities in Palm 

Beach County, as your location to hold the U.S. Senate Commerce 

Committee field hearing on extreme weather and coastal flooding. 

We are honored to have our Congressman Deutch here. And it is 

always a delight to be with my mayor, Mayor Muoio. 

Climate change has been characterized as the most profound 

threat to our national security and our country’s continued prosperity. It does create instability in our economy through longer 

droughts and flooding. It harms our citizens’ health through more 

frequent heat waves and air pollution. And it destabilizes our infrastructure through sea-level rise and extreme weather events. 

As these conditions become our Nation’s new norm, our collective 

response should be to strengthen critically important U.S. climate 

policies, including the Clean Power Plan and vehicle fuel efficiency 

standards, not proposing budget cuts to the EPA and crucial Federal programs like Energy Star. 

The county is committed to improving the resilience of our communities both regionally and locally. As a charter member of the 

Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, a regional 

collaborative model to reduce carbon emissions, adapt to climate 

impacts, and build resilient communities, we strive to address the 

impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise, through regional collaboration and local action. 

In the past 8 years, the climate compact has fostered close, cooperative relationships with Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and 

Monroe counties, and our local municipalities. 

Locally, Palm Beach County continues its effort to adapt to and 

mitigate the impacts of climate change. We are incorporating resilience and sustainability measures in our capital projects, curbing 

greenhouse gases through reducing soft costs for solar heating systems and tracking energy use, and by strengthening relationships 

with businesses and addressing economic benefits of resiliency in 

our community. 

Politicizing science erodes one of the main hallmarks of our great 

country, the celebration of our ingenuity and the ability to transform insurmountable hurdles into advantageous opportunities. We 

urge the Senate Commerce Committee and its counterpart in the 

House to increase rather than eliminate local support, regional and 

national efforts to protect our businesses and our citizens from climate change, which continues to be documented and proven by the 

international community of scientists. 

I call upon you to continue to provide the critical leadership 

needed on the global climate stage so the gains achieved over the 

past few years are not lost. 

And on behalf of all of us here in Florida, thank you for your 

leadership and being with us here today. 

Senator NELSON. Thank you, Mayor. 

Okay, our distinguished panel, your written remarks will be included as part of the official record. What I would like you to do 

8 

is to summarize your remarks and try to keep it within less than 

5 minutes. 

Dr. Ben Kirtman is the Director of the Center for Computational 

Science, and Climate and Environmental Hazards at the University of Miami—this is Dr. Kirtman over here—as well as the Director of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences. 

Dr. Kirtman is a professor in the Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography at UM’s Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, and is the Executive Editor of the scientific 

journal Climate Dynamics. 

How do you have time for all this? 

[Laughter.] 

Senator NELSON. His research focuses on predicting climate 

change in the short and long term, and how much of that change 

can be attributed to humans. 

Then we are going to hear from Dr. Leonard Berry. He is Professor Emeritus of Geosciences at Florida Atlantic, and he serves 

as a consultant to Coastal Risk Consulting, a Florida company that 

assesses climate risk to properties. He is also providing consulting 

services to communities who wish to relocate power infrastructure 

to avoid those risks. 

Mr. Carl Hedde is the Senior Vice President and the Head of 

Risk Accumulation for Munich Reinsurance Company of America. 

Mr. Hedde oversees corporate accumulation issues, including use of 

catastrophic risk models, climate catastrophic risk consulting services, and portfolio management and optimization. Additionally, he 

manages a group of scientists that provide expert and research capabilities to Munich Reinsurance Company of America and its clients. 

By the way, if you are confused, you do not hear a lot of insurance companies come out and chronicle this, though reinsurance 

companies do, because they see the long-term risk whereas the insurance companies are usually just setting their rates on the basis 

of 1 to 3 years in the future, not the reinsurance companies. That 

is why we have Mr. Hedde here today. 

Then, Dr. Jennifer Jurado, she is the Chief Resiliency Officer as 

well as the Director of the Environmental Planning and Community Resilience Division of Broward County. Dr. Jurado serves as 

the county’s primary representative coordinating with regency and 

agency partners—and we want you to tell us about the South Florida compact—and public and private stakeholders to advance the 

planning and infrastructure investments. 

Dr. Jurado was on the President’s Task Force on Climate Preparedness and was recognized in 2013 by the White House as a 

Champion of Change for her leadership on climate resilience. She 

was integral in drafting the compact, which she is going to tell us 

about. 

So thank you all for being here. Let’s just start in the order that 

I introduced you. 

Dr. Kirtman. 

9 

STATEMENT OF BEN KIRTMAN, Ph.D., DIRECTOR, 

COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ATMOSPHERIC 

SCIENCES, AND DIRECTOR OF THE CENTER FOR 

COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE, CLIMATE, AND ENVIRONMENTAL 

HAZARDS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI 

Dr. KIRTMAN. Senator Nelson, Congressman Deutch, distinguished Mayors, distinguished elected officials, thank you for this 

opportunity to share what I think are really important problems in 

climate change and climate variability. As a Floridian, I am particularly grateful for the Committee’s focus on this matter as it hits 

very close to home for many of us. 

First of all, as a scientist, my goal is to understand how the 

Earth system works and how to predict its evolution into the future. As a weather and climate scientist, it is my hope that policymakers will utilize the best available science to save lives, protect 

property, and enable economic opportunity, and secure our national 

defense. 

What I want to do today is I want to tell you a little bit about 

the best available science that we have on climate change and how 

that affects Florida regionally. As part of that process, I want to 

have a mantra that sits in the background, and this is from the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That mantra is ‘‘multiple lines of evidence.’’ 

So I am going to show you a few figures, and they are going to 

be very overwhelming. That is on purpose. There are going to be 

tons and tons of curves, and I am not going to explain each individual curve. But I want to hit hard on this mantra of multiple 

lines of evidence. 

Let’s first start out with the fact that Senator Nelson has already 

given us, and that is that CO2 and methane affect global atmospheric temperatures. That is a fact. Over the last 800,000 years, up 

until about 3,000 years, CO2 levels have oscillated between 180 

parts per million and 280 parts per million—180 to 280. Those oscillations took on the order of 10,000 to 40,000 years. 

The current levels of CO2 are 405. That jump from 280 to 405 

took less than 200 years—less than 200 years. Something is out of 

balance. 

What I show here on the panel is our instrument record, our 

modern instrument record, and you can see there are a number of 

different fields there. They have different curves and different data 

sets. These are disparate scientists using different instruments to 

collect this data and to analyze the data. And it is different fields. 

One might be Arctic sea ice in the summer. One might be sea surface temperatures. One is sea-level rise. 

Multiple lines of evidence all point to the same thing, all point 

to the same thing, that our climate system is out of balance, and 

it has warmed, 100 percent confidence, since the 1950s. 

I want to pause a moment to talk about sea level because this 

is important. This is really important. That top panel shows sealevel rise estimates from the previous 2,000 years up until about 

1900, or maybe 1700—2,000 years. 

What you notice in that top panel is there is no change in sea 

level. The sea level is remarkably stable. When you look more recently in the other two panels to the left, what do you see? You see 

10 

over the modern instrument record, a rapid increase in sea level 

globally. That is due to human activities. 

The panel on the right, that is flooding in Miami Beach. These 

are based on insurance claims and anecdotal evidence but also 

data. What you can see is the rate of flooding has steadily increased over that record. 

So these are clear, unequivocal indicators, 95 percent to 100 percent certainty—scientists are always a little bit conservative—95 

percent to 100 percent certainty that the climate system has 

warmed and the sea level has risen since the 1950s, and that is 

due to human activities. 

How do we know it is due to human activities? You can analyze 

the data very carefully. What this is is a very, very careful analysis 

of the global temperature records. And you can see we can contribute it to El Nino, which we just had. We can attribute it to sunspot cycles. We can attribute it to all kinds of things. Volcanoes. 

The one thing that jumps off the page is the one in the black 

oval. That is human activity. The bulk of the temperature rise we 

have seen since the 1950s is due to human activities. 

We do the same thing with our model that is in the right-side 

panel. We take out the volcanoes. We take out the CO2. We are unable to reproduce the temperature record in the 20th century without the anthropogenic greenhouse gases. 

Again, multiple lines of evidence all pointing to the same thing. 

The last slide, the regional change is difficult, it is a very difficult problem, and that is because the natural variability is large. 

It requires very careful calculations. But the panels on the right 

are showing the near-term future. We have every reason to believe 

that the current trends that we are seeing are going to continue. 

In fact, there is compounding evidence that the current trends 

are going to continue. There is no credible science whatsoever that 

the trends we see today are going to reverse themselves. 

So even if you want to be skeptical about human activities affecting climate change, for the next 25 to 50 years, there is no evidence 

that those trends will reverse. 

Thank you very much. 

[The prepared statement of Dr. Kirtman follows:] 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF BEN KIRTMAN, PH.D., PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI— 

ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL FOR MARINE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE; DIRECTOR, 

COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR MARINE AND ATMOSPHERIC STUDIES; PROGRAM DIRECTOR FOR CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS, CENTER FOR COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE

Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member Nelson, distinguished members of the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation and members of the 

House of Representatives, thank you for this opportunity to come before you today 

and share my thoughts regarding climate variability and climate change, and how 

this affects Florida. 

I’ve been a climate scientist for about 25 years, having received my Ph.D. in 1992. 

Ten years ago, I joined the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and 

Atmospheric Science as a Professor of meteorology and physical oceanography and 

in 2016 was appointed as the Director of the Cooperative Institute of Marine and 

Atmospheric Studies. I use complex earth system models and the most sophisticated 

supercomputers throughout the United States to investigate the predictability of the 

climate system on time scales from days-to-decades. 

I served as a coordinating lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group one—the Scientific Basis and have chaired sevVerDate Nov 24 2008 10:36 Sep 13, 2017 Jkt 075679 PO 00000 Frm 00014 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6621 S:\GPO\DOCS\20170410 JACKIE
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eral national and international scientific panels and working groups. I’m an Executive Editor of Climate Dynamics and an Associate Editor of the American Geophysical Union Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres). I have received research grants from the National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, NOAA, 

NASA, and the Office of Naval Research, and I lead the North American MultiModel Ensemble Prediction (NMME) Experiment. I’m the author and/or coauthor of 

over 120 peer reviewed papers focused on understanding and predicting climate variability on time scales from days to decades. 

And as a Floridian, I am grateful for the Committee’s focus on a matter that hits 

very close to home for many of us in this room. 

First and foremost, as a scientist my goal is to understand how the earth system 

works and how to predict its evolution into the future. As weather and climate scientists, it is our hope that policy makers will be able to utilize the best available 

science to help: (1) save lives, (2) protect property, (3) enable economic opportunity 

and (4) secure our national defense. 

My testimony will summarize the current state-of-the-science in climate variability and change on a global scale, and how these global drivers affect the local 

Florida environment. The over-arching key points are summarized below, and the 

remaining text goes into further detail with data and figures. Much of the material 

included here is from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th 

Assessment Report (AR5, Stocker et al., 2013; Kirtman et al., 2013), which assesses 

our current scientific understanding of climate change. It is important to understand that any robust conclusions in the IPCC assessment report require: (i) multiple disparate lines of evidence and (ii) quantitative estimates of uncertainty. This 

assessment process summarizes the best available science. 

The Science: Global Climate Drivers of Regional Change 

(i) CO2 levels in the atmosphere affect global temperatures. 

(ii) During the last 800,000 years (excluding the modern era; 1900-present), CO2

levels in the atmosphere have ranged from about 180 parts per million by volume 

(ppmv) to about 280 ppmv. The oscillations were between 180 and 280 ppmv; these 

changes took approximately 10,000 to 40,000 years to occur. Current CO2 levels are 

about 405 ppmv and the increase from 280 to 405 ppmv took less than 150 years 

(see Fig. 1). This rapid increase in CO2 is unprecedented in any observational estimate. 

(iii) Since the 1950s the climate system has warmed and it is 100 percent unequivocal (see Fig. 2). There are robust multiple lines of evidence—multiple studies 

that involve different observational instruments that measure different components 

of the climate system—that support this conclusion. 

(iv) The bulk of the warming since the 1950s is extremely likely (95–100 percent 

certainty) due to human activities (i.e., increases in CO2 levels associated with the 

consumption of fossil fuels; see Fig. 3 and Fig. 4). 

(v) Given its importance in Florida, sea level merits special attention. Paleo sea 

level data from the last 3000 years, until approximately 1900, has been remarkably 

stable; there has been little change in the global mean. However, since about 1900 

global mean sea level has steadily risen consistent with the warming seen (Fig. 5). 

(vi) Regional climate changes are more difficult to assess. This is because the natural variability tends to be larger on the local scale, and this makes it more challenging to isolate the anthropogenic signal. Nevertheless, regional changes in temperature through out much of the U.S. show a pronounced warming trend (see Fig. 

6). 

(vii) There is evidence that at regional scales along the eastern U.S., and in Florida in particular, the sea level rise is accelerating (see Fig. 7). 

(viii) There is no compelling scientific evidence that any of the trends that we currently see are going to reverse themselves. There is, however, compelling evidence 

that the current trends will continue for at least the next 25 years, and there is 

even some evidence that particular trends may accelerate. Even if one is skeptical 

that human activities are the cause of these trends, there is a clear local need to 

protect lives and property, and ensure economic opportunity in response to changes 

we see today. Robust, well-calibrated, scientifically based predictions of the next 25 

years and beyond (see Fig. 8) are the first step in developing effective adaptation 

strategies and to capitalize on the associated economic opportunities. 

(ix) Florida is well positioned to respond to the challenges and opportunities associated with climate change. The academic community has established the Florida 

Climate Institute (FCI; https://floridaclimateinstitute.org). The Florida Climate Institute (FCI) fosters interdisciplinary research, education, and extension to: Improve 

our understanding and the impact of climate variability, climate change, and sea 

level rise on the economy, ecosystems, and human-built systems; Develop techVerDate Nov 24 2008 10:36 Sep 13, 2017 Jkt 075679 PO 00000 Frm 00015 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6621 S:\GPO\DOCS\20170410 JACKIE
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nologies and information for creating opportunities and policies that reduce economic and environmental risks; and Engage society in research, extension and education programs for enhancing adaptive capacity and responses to associated climatic risks. We collaborate with the local, state, and Federal Government to address 

our most pressing adaptation problems. 

(x) The process of challenging the conventional wisdom is a critical component of 

how robust science progresses. We should always be respectful of differing perspectives, accounting for new information and ideas and then test them through the scientific method. This is how science works, this is how we find fact. When it comes 

to policy, I would just ask that policy makers take into account the best available 

science. When it comes to climate change, the scientific consensus is not cavalier, 

it is prudent and conservative, and is the best available science. 

Basic Global Climate Change 

Figure 1 shows 800,000 years of CO2 and temperature from ice core records from 

Vostok, Antarctica. The temperature near the South Pole has varied by as much as 

20°F (11°C) during the past 800,000 years. The cyclical pattern of temperature variations constitutes the ice age/interglacial cycles. During these cycles, changes in carbon dioxide concentrations (in purple) track closely with changes in temperature (in 

blue), with CO2 lagging behind temperature changes. Because it takes a while for 

snow to compress into ice, ice core data are not yet available much beyond the 18th 

century at most locations. However, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, as measured 

in air, are higher today than at any time during the past 800,000 years. Source: 

National Research Council (https://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/more 

resources-on-climate-change/climate-change-lines-of-evidence-booklet/evidence-impacts-andchoices-figure-gallery/figure-14/). 

Source 1 for top image: Lu ̈thi, D., M. Le Floch, B. Bereiter, T. Blunier, J.-M. Barnola, U. 

Siegenthaler, D. Raynaud, J. Jouzel, H. Fischer, K. Kawamura, and T. F. Stocker. 2008. Highresolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present. Nature 

453(7193):379–382, doi: 10.1038/nature06949. 

Source 2 for bottom image: Jouzel, J., V. Masson-Delmotte, O. Cattani, G. Dreyfus, S. Falourd, 

G. Hoffmann, B. Minster, J. Nouet, J. M. Barnola, J. Chappellaz, H. Fischer, J. C. Gallet, S. 

Johnson, M. Leuenberger, L. Loulergue, D. Luethi, H. Oerter, F. Parrenin, G. Raisbeck, D. 

Raynaud, A. Schilt, J. Schwander, E. Selmo, R. Souchez, R. Spahni, B. Stauffer, J. P. Steffensen, 

B. Stenni, T. F. Stocker, J. L. Tison, M. Werner, and E. W. Wolff. 2007. Orbital and millennial 

Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science 317(5839):793–797. 


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One of the top level conclusions of the IPCC AR5 is that the since the 19th century the climate system has warmed. This conclusion is based on multiple lines of 

evidence from many different data sets that have been collected using different instruments. All of these data sets, whether they are ocean, land, or sea-ice measurements point to one unequivocal conclusion—the world has warmed. Figure 2 summarizes the results from many several of these different data sets. For example, 

there are four different data sets used to estimate global land surface temperature 

changes, and they all indicate a warming of about 2.5°F. There are six different 

data set used to estimate global sea level, and again they all agree in the upward 

trend. Summer arctic sea-ice extent is estimated using six different data sets, and 

they all indicate the same downward trend. 

Figure 2: Multiple independent indicators of a changing global climate. Each line represents 

an independently derived estimate of change in the climate element. In each panel all data sets 

have been normalized to a common period of record. Figure take from IPCC AR5 and a full detailing of the data sources is given in Stocker et al., (2013, supplementary material). 

Perhaps the most important question that needs to be addressed is how do we 

know the trends seen in Fig. 2 are due to human activities. There are two typical 

approaches. The first is referred to detection and attribution studies (Bindoff et al., 

2013). Figure 3 summarize a classic detection and attribution study based on observational estimates of global mean surface temperatures. The time series analysis 

separates the global mean temperature changes due to: El Nin ̃ o (panel b), volcanoes 

(panel c), solar output (panel d), and other modes of climate variability like the 

AMO (panel f). The global mean temperature changes associated with the changes 

in greenhouse gases such a CO2 are shown in panel e, and demonstrate that it is 

extremely likely (95–100 percent) that the bulk of the warming since the 1950s is 

due to human activities. 


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Figure 3: (Top) The variations of the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) 

anomaly from Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 

version 3 (HadCRUT3, black line) and the best multivariate fits using the method of Lean (red 

line), Lockwood (pink line), Folland (green line) and Kaufmann (blue line). (Below) The contributions to the fit from (a) El Nin ̃ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), (b) volcanoes, (c) solar forcing, 

(d) anthropogenic forcing and (e) other factors (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) for 

Folland and a 17.5-year cycle, semi-annual oscillation (SAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) from 

Lean). (From Lockwood (2008), Lean and Rind (2009), Folland et al. (2013 ) and Kaufmann et 

al. (2011), as summarized in Imbers et al. (2013).) See Figure 10.6 in Bindoff et al. (2013) for 

references and details. 

The second approach for attributing the observed warming to human activities is 

based on climate model simulations. Again, as with the data analysis shown in 

Fig. 3, the climate models used in the assessment of the climate of the 20th century 

have been developed and validated by different modeling centers in different countries around the world—multiple lines of evidence supporting the conclusion. The 

approach is to simulate the climate of the 20th century with and without the anthropogenic changes in CO2. The results and then be compared with the observed 

temperature record. An example of this for global mean temperature is shown in 

Fig. 4. Again, the results point to the same conclusion—the bulk of the warming 

since the 1950s is due to human activities. 


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Figure 5: Comparison of observed (black curve) and multi-model simulated global mean temperature with natural and anthropogenic forcing (pink swath) and just natural forcing (blue 

swath). The width of the swaths correspond to the 5 percent–95 percent range from the multimodel ensemble simulations. Figure adapted from Stocker et al., 2013. 

Sea level rise associated with climate change is of particular importance to Florida. Here we show results from Church et al., (2013) which includes a detailed analysis of paleo and historical estimates of global sea level and more recent modern 

instrument records. The results further underscore the unequivocal conclusion that 

human activities are leading to profound changes in the climate system. 

Figure 5: a) Paleo sea level data for the last 3,000 years from Northern and Southern Hemisphere sites. The effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have been removed from these 

records. Light green = Iceland (Gehrels et al., 2006), purple = Nova Scotia (Gehrels et al., 2005), 

bright blue = Connecticut (Donnelly et al., 2004), blue = Nova Scotia (Gehrels et al., 2005), red 

= United Kingdom (Gehrels et al., 2011), green = North Carolina (Kemp et al., 2011), brown 

= New Zealand (Gehrels et al., 2008), grey = mid-Pacific Ocean (Woodroffe et al., 2012). (b) Paleo 

sea level data from salt marshes since 1700 from Northern and Southern Hemisphere sites compared to sea level reconstruction from tide gauges (blue time series with uncertainty) (Jevrejeva 


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16 

et al., 2008). The effects of GIA have been removed from these records by subtracting the longterm trend (Gehrels and Woodworth, 2013). Ordinate axis on the left corresponds to the paleo 

sea level data. Ordinate axis on the right corresponds to tide gauge data. Green and light green 

= North Carolina (Kemp et al., 2011), orange = Iceland (Gehrels et al., 2006), purple = New Zealand (Gehrels et al., 2008), dark green = Tasmania (Gehrels et al., 2012), brown = Nova Scotia 

(Gehrels et al., 2005). (c) Yearly average global mean sea level (GMSL) reconstructed from tide 

gauges by three different approaches. Orange from Church and White (2011), blue from 

Jevrejeva et al., (2008), green from Ray and Douglas (2011) (see Section 3.7). (d) Altimetry data 

sets from ve groups (University of Colorado (CU), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Goddard Space Flight Centre (GSFC), Archiving, Validation and Interpretation 

of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research 

Organisation (CSIRO)) with mean of the ve shown as bright blue line (see Section 3.7). (e) Comparison of the paleo data from salt marshes (purple symbols, from (b)), with tide gauge and altimetry data sets (same line colours as in (c) and (d)). All paleo data were shifted by mean of 

1700–1850 derived from the Sand Point, North Carolina data. The Jevrejeva et al., (2008) tide 

gauge data were shifted by their mean for 1700–1850; other two tide gauge data sets were shifted by the same amount. The altimeter time series has been shifted vertically upwards so that 

their mean value over the 1993–2007 period aligns with the mean value of the average of all 

three tide gauge time series over the same period. References and details in Church et al., 2013. 

Regional Climate Change 

Regional climate changes are more difficult to assess. This is because the natural 

variability tends to be larger on the local scale, and this makes it more challenging 

to isolate the anthropogenic signal. Nevertheless, regional changes in temperature 

thought much of the U.S. show a pronounced warming trend (see Fig. 6). 

Figure 6: The colors on the map show temperature changes over the past 22 years (1991– 

2012) compared to the 1901–1960 average, and compared to the 1951–1980 average for Alaska 

and Hawai‘i. The bars on the graphs show the average temperature changes by decade for 1901– 

2012 (relative to the 1901–1960 average) for each region. The far right bar in each graph (2000s 

decade) includes 2011 and 2012. The period from 2001 to 2012 was warmer than any previous 

decade in every region. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS–NC). Figure taken from Melillo 

et al., 2014. 


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There is evidence that sea level rise along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. is accelerating (Fig. 7 below). The factors for the acceleration are not well understood 

but could be due to changes in ocean circulation associated with global warming, 

Greenland ice melt also associated with global warming or even land subsidence. 

Figure 7: Flooding frequency in Miami Beach. Figure adapted from Wdowinski et al., (2016) 

Finally, there is no compelling scientific evidence that any of the trends that we 

currently see are going to naturally? reverse themselves. There is, however, compelling evidence that the current trends will continue for at least the next 25 years, 

and there is even some evidence that particular trends (regional sea level) may accelerate (see discussion of Fig. 7). 

Predicting the Future 

Even if one is skeptical that human activities are the cause of these trends, there 

is a clear local need to protect lives and property, and ensure economic opportunity 

in response to changes we see today. Robust well-calibrated scientifically based predictions of the next 25-years (and beyond) are the first stop in developing effective 

adaptation strategies and to capitalize on the associated economic opportunities. 


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Figure 8: Projected changes in global temperature and sea level from IPCC AR5. See Stocker 

et al., 2013 for details. 

References 

Bindoff, N.L., P.A. Stott, K.M. AchutaRao, M.R. Allen, N. Gillett, D. Gutzler, K. 

Hansingo, G. Hegerl, Y. Hu, S. Jain, I.I. Mokhov, J. Overland, J. Perlwitz, R. 

Sebbari and X. Zhang, 2013: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from 

Global to Regional. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. 

Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge 

University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 

Church, J.A., P.U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J.M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, 

M.A. Merri eld, G.A. Milne, R.S. Nerem, P.D. Nunn, A.J. Payne, W.T. Pfeffer, D. 

Stammer and A.S. Unnikrishnan, 2013: Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 

2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., 

D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. 

Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 

Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, 

X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver 

and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and 

Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution 

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on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. 

Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University 

Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 

Kirtman, B., S.B. Power, J.A. Adedoyin, G.J. Boer, R. Bojariu, I. Camilloni, F.J. 

Doblas-Reyes, A.M. Fiore, M. Kimoto, G.A. Meehl, M. Prather, A. Sarr, C. Scha ̈ r, 

R. Sutton, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi and H.J. Wang, 2013: Near-term Climate 

Change: Projections and redictability. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical 


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Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of 

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. 

Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. 

Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New 

York, NY, USA. 

Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Climate 

Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. 

Global Change Research Program, 841 pp. doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2. 

Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, L.V. Alexander, S.K. Allen, N.L. Bindoff, F.- 

M. Bre ́on, J.A. Church, U. Cubasch, S. Emori, P. Forster, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gillett, J.M. Gregory, D.L. Hartmann, E. Jansen, B. Kirtman, R. Knutti, K. Krishna 

Kumar, P. Lemke, J. Marotzke, V. Masson-Delmotte, G.A. Meehl, I.I. Mokhov, S. 

Piao, V. Ramaswamy, D. Randall, M. Rhein, M. Rojas, C. Sabine, D. Shindell, L.D. 

Talley, D.G. Vaughan and S.-P. Xie, 2013: Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 

2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., 

D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. 

Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 

Wdowinski, S. R. Bray, B. P. Kirtman, Z. Wu, 2016: Increasing flooding hazard 

in coastal communities due to raising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida. 

Ocean and Coastal Management, 126, 1–8. 

Senator NELSON. Thank you very much, Dr. Kirtman. 

Dr. Berry. 

STATEMENT OF LEONARD ‘‘LEN’’ BERRY, PH.D., 

EMERITUS PROFESSOR, GEOSCIENCES, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 

UNIVERSITY, AND VICE PRESIDENT, GOVERNMENT 

PROGRAMS, COASTAL RISK CONSULTING, LLC 

Dr. BERRY. Senator, Congressman, Mayors, 5 years ago, almost 

to the day, I testified before the Senate Committee on Natural Resources in Washington, and I started with a joke. I said, ‘‘the sky 

is not falling, but the seas are rising.’’ It got their attention. Now 

I can tell you the seas are still rising, and I wonder sometimes if 

the skies are falling. 

What I thought I would try to do today was really talk about 

what has happened in those 5 years in relation to sea-level rise and 

our understanding. 

On the science side, we have all the stuff that Ben has talked 

about, but we have also understood the processes better. We know 

more about the Antarctic and what is happening there. We know 

more about the role of the Gulf Stream in our local sea-level rise. 

We did not know a lot of that 5 years ago. We know it now. And 

as Ben says, the percent of certainty goes up from 95 beyond. 

We know a lot more, and we are a lot more scared, because if 

I look at the new information coming up year by year, every time 

it gets a little bit worse. It is not inference. It is what data comes 

out, what information comes out. 

In my written testimony, I emphasize, and we can emphasize 

more, that the information provided by NOAA, NASA, and all of 

our other agencies are vital for our understanding of what is happening now and for our understanding of what is going to happen 

in the near and more distant future. 

Also, the data is vital for mayors, Congressmen, businesses. The 

business I co-founded relies on NASA data—LIDAR, sea-level tides, 

and so on. Information is the key to our understanding. And reliable, credible information is what we have to rely on. 

20 

Our appreciation of risk has changed over 5 years partly because 

of all of the stuff I am talking about but also, as you point out— 

you stole my thunder—it is about experience. We experience flooding. We spend $100 million a year in Miami Beach on pumps. We 

do all of this stuff, and it is new. 

And so as our appreciation of risk has changed, our response has 

changed. We have sustainability officers—one great one here. A lot 

of counties, cities, now have sustainability officers, because they 

need people who understand a broad range of change and are willing to manage it in a relatively uncertain future. I think our responses have changed. We were not spending $100 

million anywhere on pumps 5 years ago. But king tides have convinced us that the problem is not in the future. It is now. Adaptation action scenarios have been designated, mainly in Broward 

County, and people in those areas have special legal issues and 

special responses. 

Investments in people and technology are protecting more than 

the buildings and the infrastructure. They are protecting, as you 

point out, the economy. Our economy depends on our coastal areas 

being vital. And without responding to our sea-level rise issues, 

those coastal areas will be in trouble. 

On the other hand, there are opportunities there that we have 

in using our technology to be innovative, create new ideas, and create new jobs. 

Homeowners have a responsibility too. The company I am working with focuses on individual homeowners. We can provide them 

with information on what they need to do. They can match what 

the communities are going to do and become a stable community 

where the central organization is not doing one thing and the 

homeowners are trying to catch up. Homeowners need to take adaptation action, and they need data to do it. 

This may sound good as a regional response, and we feel very 

proud of it, but it pales in significance beyond what needs to be 

done. 

As you pointed out and as we all know, great things done at the 

regional level have to be matched at the State level and at the Federal level. We need a coherent policy that deals with all of those 

levels at one time, and I hope that we can find ways that this Committee can do them. 

[The prepared statement of Dr. Berry follows:] 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF LEONARD ‘‘LEN’’ BERRY, PH.D., EMERITUS PROFESSOR, GEOSCIENCES, FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNIVERSITY, AND VICE PRESIDENT, GOVERNMENT

PROGRAMS, COASTAL RISK CONSULTING, LLC 

I am Dr. Leonard Berry, founder and former director of the Florida Center for Environmental Studies at Florida Atlantic University (FAU), now Emeritus professor 

of geosciences at FAU. I am also the co-founder and Vice President of Coastal Risk 

Consulting, LLC, a start-up technology company providing affordable flood vulnerability and risk assessments, located in Plantation, Broward County, Florida. 

As a scientist and businessman, and as a resident, I want to emphasize that sea 

level rise is a critical issue in South Florida—not only in Miami, which gets most 

of the press—but for the whole region, including here in Palm Beach County. The 

issue requires our scientific, legislative and legal attention; and our current investment in the amount of several billions of dollars to be spent over the next few years 

alone. 

As the topics of this hearing suggest, dealing with the current and future threat 

of sea level rise requires a combination of the best available science, based on credVerDate Nov 24 2008 10:36 Sep 13, 2017 Jkt 075679 PO 00000 Frm 00024 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6621 S:\GPO\DOCS\20170410 JACKIE
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ible and ongoing global data, and assessment of that data with respect to conditions 

on the ground—from communities to individual properties—to determine degrees of 

risk now, and in the future. 

But the important part is action across all parts of society, from government on 

the local to national levels, in the business community, and in civil society. While 

we have seen responses from many parts of our community in South Florida, the 

action is far from universal. 

My colleague Dr. Ben Kirtman will address the scientific progress in some detail, 

but his work and that of others depend on the continued information flow from the 

Federal Government. I have attached a letter to the President from many Florida 

scientists that underscores the importance of science and information. 

It can’t be overemphasized—continued flow of global data is vital to our understanding of the science of sea level rise and the actions we take form that science. 

As the 2016 Sea-Level Rise Summit (http://www.ces.fau.edu/arctic-florida/) highlighted, the fate of Florida depends on what happens in the Arctic and Greenland. 

And over a longer timeframe, what happens in Antarctica is important too. There 

are large questions and uncertainties regarding the melt rate and effects of ice on 

land. We must continue to learn more and reduce these uncertainties. 

South Florida and the state as a whole have long experience of dealing with risk 

in the form of major storms or hurricanes. Extreme weather is predicted—we prepare for it, and if it strikes, we respond and rebuild. 

Risk from sea level rise is different however; steady increase in the number of 

sunny-day flooding events is more insidious, though sometimes, like during Sandy, 

the level of risk does not get fully exposed until an storm like no other. 

In various ways the region has begun to assess the level of risk and to respond. 

The obvious threat is physical damage to infrastructure, but we now recognize that 

the economy is also at risk unless remedial actions are taken. The Southeast Florida 

Regional Climate Compact, an important partnership now supported scientifically 

by the statewide Florida Climate Institute, has begun laying out the response to 

these challenges. Action has been occurring a slower pace, albeit faster than almost 

anywhere else in the United States. 

One of the Compact’s activities is the Resilient Redesign series, where sample 

areas are re-planned to thrive in a future sea level situation. The Resilient Redesign 

concepts for part of Delray Beach are appended as examples. 

Adaptation to sea level rise however, has both top-down and bottom-up components. Government on all levels will have a responsibility to assist, and individual 

homeowners have obligations as well. 

In the last five years, we have observed case studies on sea level rise adaptation. 

The City of Miami Beach is on the forefront—raising streets, communicating directly with residents, and having the difficult, but necessary conversations about sea 

level rise. Recently, the Cities of Miami and Miami Beach with Miami-Dade County 

were honored by being accepted as part of the Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 Resilience Cities program, further elevating the conversation and creating a cross-government organization to do so. These issues will not be solved by one level of government, but will require crosscutting and boundary-breaking ideas and actions. Dr. 

Jennifer Jurado, the Chief Climate Resilience Officer for Broward County, can more 

knowledgably speak to local government adaptation actions. 

Private homeowners have a responsibility as well. Individual residents are going 

to have to take adaption actions to protect their homes and assets. In order to take 

necessary actions, homeowners need accurate and trustworthy actionable intelligence. This is where innovation and technology intersect with sea level rise. 

After I retired from Florida Atlantic University, I co-founded a company based in 

South Florida called Coastal Risk Consulting. The company’s mission is to help 

coastal residents in the United States and around the world prepare for sea level 

rise and coastal flooding. It has become my mission to use the best available science 

and distill that down to the individual property level to create a communication tool 

personalized to a homeowner. Coastal Risk forecasts the numbers of fair-weather 

flood days an individual property owner will see for the next 30 years. This is all 

presented in an adaptation framework, proposing adaptation steps based on the 

number of fair-weather flood days. 

Homeowners can use this data to make the decision to adapt now, plan on adapting in the future, or decide that adaption will not be necessary for the foreseeable 

future. The important part of the decision making process is that it is a well-informed decision about personal adaptation. As cities and towns begin to plan for 

adaption, homeowner must as well. This is how we will create robust and resilient 

communities. 

Sea level rise is a complex, multi-faceted issue that will require the best minds 

from all fields of study and industries to come together. 

22 

For example, in addition to protecting their assets through adaptation, homeowners protect their homes through insurance. As Congress begins to reauthorize 

the National Flood Insurance Program, we must also consider the effects of sea level 

rise. Big questions remain for the program—What will flood insurance look like in 

the future? When homes begin to flood due to fair-weather flooding associated with 

sea level rise, will that be an insured loss? What will happen to flood insurance in 

those areas that are now more susceptible to coastal inundation due to sea level 

rise? 

Sea level rise will also raise new and complex environmental issues. How will we 

ensure that traditional septic tanks will not contaminate surrounding areas? What 

other issues will communities need to consider as salt water begins to interact with 

the built environment? 

In addition, South Florida has its own set of complex issues. The limestone base 

of our community is basically a porous rock. So as sea level rises, the water table 

will be pushed closer to the surface. Communities close to sea level, even far inland, 

will see water seep through the surface creating puddles at low lying points. Properly communicating this risk is imperative, as sea level rise is currently considered 

solely an issue for communities that abut the coastline. 

While sea level rise is acknowledged as a South Florida concern, it is becoming 

an issue for every coastal community in the world. Boston, Norfolk, Santa Monica, 

Charleston, New Orleans, and even our Nation’s capital, Washington, DC, are beginning to see clear signs that the seas are rising. We want all of our cities to be 

resilient. 

Adaptation to sea level rise and resiliency go hand in hand. We cannot create resilient communities along our coastlines if we do not begin the adaptation conversation now, and in order to have a conversation, we must have the best available data. 

States, local governments, and companies rely on this data from the Federal Government and we’ll need it even more going forward. 

Attachments: Letter to the President, dated March 13, 2017, Resilient Redesign 

notes and presentation excerpt 

23 

ATTACHMENTS


410INSER1.eps

March 13, 2017 

Dear President Trump: 

American scientists have historically been at the forefront of scientific discoveries 

and innovation. America should invest heavily in our effort to understand our home 

planet and be aware of how physical changes will impact industry and society. 

Two agencies In your Administration support such studies: the National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration (NOM) and the National Aeronautics and Space 

Administration (NASA). These agencies provide the knowledge that helps our crops 

grow stronger. our fisheries thrive. and our tourism nourish. 

NOM and NASA are crucial to our safety and our ability to predict extreme weather. 

Not on ly do NASA and NOAA Ea rth-observing programs create jobs, but they also 

have a huge impact on ou•· economy, and ultimately genera te the technologies that 

make America great 

Yet right now, competition f1·om China and Europe cou ld eclipse our programs. We 

need strong Earth science programs so we are able to prepare a better future. 

NASA and NOAA Earth science programs monitor and understand changes in our 

water resources and our soil. They track the conditions that affect the food and 

medicines we get from the oceans. These conditions impact agriculture, our military, 

businesses, and major industries. It is Imperative to support programs that explore 

our planet- at NOAA and NASA and across the government. 

The work of NOAA and NASA Is vital to life on Ea1th and must be continued. 

As you turn your attention to new heads for these agencies. consid er tl1e critical role 

that they play in helping us survive and thrive on Earth. 

As you ponder your selection, we encourage you to: 

Continue Earth Science Research 

America must continue funding both NOM's environmental satellites and NASA's 

new technologies to measure the vital signs of our planet 

NASA and NOAA's work capture the history and the present state of the oceans, 

land, fresh water bodies. and atmosphere. They make it possible for us to observe 

changes to the planet we live on, from the vantage point of space. 

For example, NASA satellites are responsible for providing the first global 

measu•·ements of aerosols in our atmosphere and for understanding ozone. NASA 

satellites from the GRACE and ICES missions discovered unexpected rapid changes 
24 


410INSER2.eps

In Earth's great Ice sheets, and the )ason-3, OSTM/)ason-2, and )ason-1 missions 

have recorded a sea level rise of an average of three inches since 1992.1 

NOAA and NASA's Earth science programs have provided complementary, 

unprecedented understanding of how the ocean biology is changing. Europe, China, 

Japan. South Korea, India, and Argentina have developed and are developing new 

sensors to follow in NASA's footsteps- and yet at NASA, missions like MOO IS and 

PACE are crucial to design the next generation of ocean sensors. 

The core funding for academic research at universities, as well as programs within 

the various NASA centers, have all played integral roles in our understanding of our 

unique and rapidly changing world. NOAA's programs play a complementary and 

critical role as these technologies move Into sustained operations through an 

Integrated Ocean Observing System. 

It is imperative that you continue fund ing Ea•th science programs at NASA and 

NOAA. 

Preserve Scientific Integrity 

The•·e is increasing concern among the scientific community that politics could 

interfere, stymie, or even silence crucial scientific observations. 

We know you share our pride for this country, and a big part of what makes us g1-eat 

is our fJ·eedom of speech and our freedom of expression. Politics should never 

interfere with scientific information being shared with the public. 

We are calling on you to foster a strong and open culture of science. We believe in 

adhering to high standards of scientific integrity and independence. We support 

legislation, such as that Introduced by Flo1ida Senator Bill Nelson. which calls for 

scientific Integrity -- principles for federal agencies Including Impartiality, freedom 

from Interference, and respect for the scienllfic process. 

Recognize Coastal Properties At Risk 

Aptly dubbed, "Our nation's gateway to exploring. discovering. and understanding 

our universe." NASA's Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral are home to 

multiple launch pads, several of which are directly on the coast and vulnerable to 

rising seas, erosion, and storm surge. Please recognize that NASA t"dnnot fulfill its 

mission to explore outer space if rising seas damage NASA facilities. 

Many f loJida properties. including Mar·a·l.ago · the Winte1· White House· are 

vulnerable to sea level rise. 1rwe do nothing to address climate change, we may see 

1 NASA Global Climate Change- "Taking a global perspective on Earth's clhnate: The 

Earth Observing System era," https: 1/cllmate.nasa.gov /nasa science /history/ 
25 


410INSER3.eps

a foot or more of sea level rise by 2060. AmeriC<l must be vigilant and take action to 

reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 

Climate change can be viewed as a threat or as an opportunity. NOAA and NASA 

both play a crucial role in helping us to understand those risks. We are confident 

that the many discoveries accomplished thus far are only the beginning. With 

continued research, Americans can better understand futul-e challenges and find 

ways to solve them. 

Thank you for your time and conside.ratlon. 

Sincerely, 

Todd Albert, Ph.D. 

Chief Executive Officer 

Nebular Design, LLC 

Senthold Asseng. Professor 

Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department 

University of Florida 

Dona ld Axelrad, Ph.D., Assistant Professor 

Institute of Public Health 

Florida A&M University 

Ray Bellamy, M.D. 

Tallahassee Otthopedic Clinic 

Tallahassee, Florida 

l eonard Berry, Ph.D. 

Emeritus Professor of Geosciences 

Florida Atlantic University 

llenry Brlcei\o, Ph.D., Research Pt'Ofessor 

Southeast Environmental Research Center 

Florida International University 

Kristen Buck, Assistanl Professor 

College of Marine Science 

University of South Florida 

jeff Chan ton, Professor 

Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science 

Florida State University 
26 


410INSER4.eps

Eric Chasslgnet, Professor, and Director 

Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) 

Florida State University 

Allan Clarke, The Adrian E. Gill P•·ofessor of Oceanography 

Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science 

Florida State University 

james G. Douglass, .l)., Assistant Professor 

Department of Marine and Ecolog.lcal Sciences 

Florida Gulf Coast University 

Marc E. Freeman, Ph.D. 

Lloyd Beidler Professor of Neu •·oscience Emeritus and 

Distinguished Research Professor Emeritus 

Florida State University 

David Hastings, Professor 

Marine Science and Chemistry 

Eckerd College 

Barry Heimlich, Vice Chair 

Climate Change Task Force 

Broward County 

Ben Kl!'tman .• Professor 

Department of Atmospheric Science 

Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences 

University of Miami 

Or. Marguerite Koch, Full Pl'Ofessor 

Department of Biological Sciences 

Charles E. Schmidt College ofScience 

Florida Atlantic University 

David Letson, Professor 

Department of Marine Ecosystems and Society 

University of Miami 

James MacDonald, Associate Professor of Geology 

Marine and Ecological Sciences 

Florida Gulf Coast University 

Heather Mason jones, Professor of Biology 

Department of Biology 
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University orTampa 

Mason Meers, Ph.D .. Professor of Evolutionary Biology & Anatomy 

Department of Biology 

University of Tampa 

Vasu Misra, Associate Professol' of Meteorology 

Department of Earth. Ocean and Atmospheric Science 

Florida State University 

Frank Muller· Karger. P1-ofessor 

Institute for Marine Remote Sensing/iMaRS 

College of Marine Science 

University of South Florida 

john H. Parker, Emeritus Professor of Environmental Science and Chemistry 

Department of Earth and Environment 

Florida International University 

Randall W. Parkinson, Ph.D., P.G. 

Research Faculty Affiliate, Institute for Water and Environment 

Florida lntemational University 

)oelle Richard, Assistant Professor or Marine Sciences 

Department of Marine and Ecological Sciences 

Florida Gulf Coast Unive,·sity 

Ron Saff, M.D. 

All ergy and Asthma Diagnostic Treatment Center 

Tallahassee, Florida 

Michael Savarese, Professor of Marine Science 

Department of Marine & Ecological Sciences 

Florida Gulf Coast University 

Philip Stoddard, Ph.D. 

Department of Biological Sciences 

Florida lntemational University 

john C. Van Leer, Associate Professor 

Department of Ocean Sciences 

Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences 

University of Miami 

Linda Walters, Pegasus Professor 
28 


410INSER6.eps 410INSER7.eps

Department of Biology 

University of Central Florida 

Harold R. Wanless. Professor and Chair 

Department of Geological Sciences. College of Arts and Sciences 

University of Miami 

john Weishampel. Professor 

Department of Biology 

University of Central Florida 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed In this letter are those of the Individuals 

ond do not necessarily reflect rhe officio/ policy or position o[chelr respective 

organizations. 

City of Delray Beach 

Village by the Sea -, 

0 ............ ...,., .. qa.::HtH iJj,i Florida 

Climate Institute 
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410INSER8.eps 410INSER9.eps

Concepts 

• Water orientation 

• Water as amenity 

• Maximize water storage 

• New structures on piers 

• "Complete Streets" 

• "Complete Waterways" 

• Transportation improvements 

• Beach to mainland 

• FEC passenger opportunity 

• Monorail or trolley 

• Future personal transport 

• Multi-modal system 

Concepts 

• Nassau district 

Impact on western 2/3 

• Emphasis on historic context 

• Raise structures in place 

• Marina district 

• Poor drainage 

• Persistent flooding and street 

washout at ICW 

• Conve1t Marine Way to a bioswale 

• Raise structures in place 

• Relocate at-risk structures to 

suitable context for a new 

historic district 
30 


410INSER10.eps

Southeast Florida Resilient Redesign II 

An Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change 

Compact Initiative 

Background 

The Southeast F"lorida Resilient Redesign began July 201-4, when the Southeast Florida Climate Change 

Compact (the Compact) oollaborated with the Outch Consulate in Miami to work with focal 

practitioners and stakeholders and experts from the Netherlands to propose resilient design 

strategies which could serve as models of resilience for communities throughout the south Florida 

region. The emphasis being on the Integration of design solutions into future development and 

redevelopment projects, and in advance of a major d imate disruption. This partMrship resulted In 

South Florida Resilient Redesign. 

Three characteristic south Florida landscapes were chosen to serve as model sites with the intent to 

develop transferable design solutions for similar sites across the region, these lnduded: Atton Road In 

Miami Beach, an area of Sweetwater in Miami Dade and Dania Beach Blvd. in Dania Beach, each 

representing a barrier island site, ubt..~rban site and commercial corridor, respectively. 

On the first day, visiting experts and local stakeholders made site visits, learning about the locations 

on various levels, induding details pertaining to c:ultural, economic-, soQal, historic-, topographic-, 

elevation, infrastructure and building stock conskferations. 

The larger event was held on days two and three and induded the partfc.lpation of nearlv 50 

professionals with diverse expertise, fncluding water managers, architects, enginurs, parks managers, 

planner$, hydrologists, and engineers. In a charrette style format, the group began with a review of 

the south Florida landsc-ape and development history and then began to consider how to design a 

resilient community In each of the select settings In rMponse to climate change and natural hazards, 

while c:onsfderln.g area resouroes or c-onstraints, sotial dynamics. compatibility with the c-ommunity's 

vision and economics, water management infrasttucture and impUcations to neighboring 

communities. 

Other considerations were historic preservation, uniformity, aging infrastructure, evacuation routes, 

soil permeability, flood hazards, area transit and connections. 

The design results were shared with an audience of stakeholders on the final day and then presented 

at the Southeast Florida Regional Oimate leadership Summit held in October 2014. As a result of this 

Initial collaboration. the City of Dania Beach is now working with Bfoward County on further refining 

planning scenarios and design recommendations under an EPA planning grant. 

Resilient Redesign II 

~slllent Redesign will be held again on July 19·22, 2015. The Compact is ~ased to partner this year 

with the Florida Oimate Institute, with the specific engagement of Florida Atlantic University, florida 
31 


410INSER11.eps

International University and the Universjty of Miami. Similar to the first Resilient Redesign, the 

experts and stakeholders will develop potential des(gn solutions to the evolving urban challenges of 

dfmate change and natural hazards. 

Teams of ex~rts indudlng architects, landscape architK:ts, engineers, deve o~rs, urban d~igners, 

as well as e>q>erts in hazard preparedness, water management/hydrology/geology, spatial planning. 

policy, transportation, historic preservation, park man.c~gement and communic.ations will .c~gain be 

brought together to design solutions. 

Sites ch0$en for this year are locations in Key West in Monroe County, the City of Holtywood in 

Broward County, and Delray Beach in Palm Beach County. On July 19, the teams will provide an 

optional local site visit. On July 20 and 21, the teams will come together to undertake the creative 

process in developing site specific resilient design solutions .c~t the FAU Davie Campus. The 

presentations will be held on the morning of July 22 at the FAU Davie campus. 

Site Briefings 

Hollywood, Hollywood Blvd 

The Hollywood Boulev;,trd s.ite within the City of Hollywood, Broward County, Florida is. representative 

of urban development in South Florida. As in other coastal urban areas, waterfront property and 

transportation infrastructufe ar~ subject to, or at risk, of flooding as a result of rain ~vents, ~reme 

high tide evet~ts, storm surge and sea level rise. The site's flood protection and drainage infrastructure 

is in need of retrofitting and overall the c:ommunrty is in need of a resilience and adaptation stratqy 

that wUI sustain the waterfront community with limited resources. 

The community surrounding the east end of Hollywood Boulevard includes the edge of a central 

business distric:t in active redevelopment, waterfront residential property .c~nd commercial property 

on the barrier island. The selected Hollywood Boulevard site extends 1.7 miles east to west and 1 mile 

to the north and south. The majority of the site is very ow~ ina and below an elevation of 4 feet 

NAVD. The western edge of the site borders the elevated coastal ridge (an anc:ient sand dune) which 

runs north to south at an elevation of approximately 10-11 feet NAVO. The site overlaps the city's two 

Community Redevclopmet~t Agel\ty (CRA} districts, Downtown Hollywood and Hollywood Beach. As 

such, there are contrasting socioeconomic conditions between the blighted areas in transition and the 

high value waterfront residential properties in the center. However, overall, the city intends to 

redevelop the area into a "world class coastal destination'"' and "cla.ssic: American downtown with an 

international accent ... 

The residential area Includes Holtywood Lakes whlctl Is the oldest neighborhood In the city, dating 

back to the 1920's. Several iterations of redevelopment have occurred In the community, initially 

when recovering from devastation from the 1926 Hurricane, Hurricane Cleo In 1964, Hurricane Betsy 

in 1965, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and in response to high demand for co.astal property (2000s). In 

many cases, property redevelopment did not necessarilv result in the reconstruction of seawalls or 

placement of additional ffll material to rarse the property, leading to the current conditions of 

temporary Oooding along watetfront boundaries in re-spons~ to high tides and elevated groundwater 

levels. In order to counteract flooding, the dty and its residents are implementing temporarysite· 

specific solutions. 
32 


410INSER12.eps

The commercial property along the barrier island faces pres.sure both from beach erosion and surge 

<Jiong the coastline and tidal flooding along the intrcacoastal waterway. In general, Infrastructure 

along the commercial corridor ts aging and ready for redevelopment. Existing development lies 

seaward of the Coastal Construction Control lfne leaving it vulnerable to storm·fnduced damage and 

erosion. Furthermore, the area has limited protection by natural infrastructure since the majority of 

the coastline within the s.ite area lacks vegetated dunes in favor of direct ocean views and direct 

access to the beach from the street. Redevelopment could provide an opportunity to increase 

resilience if existing infrastructure and development is redesigned. 

Key West, Salt Ponds Area 

The City of tcey West sits an average of 4. 7' (is It 4.7 feet or 4 feet 7 Inches, not the same thing) above 

sea level. Home to -24,600 people, it enteruins over 3 mfllion visitors a year, and enjoY'$ 

international accla im as a tourist destination. Because of our topography, geography and geology, the 

Oty of key W~t has along history of hazard mitigation and adaptation. 

Infrastructure; Situated in the middle of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, protecting water 

quality Is very important for our Keys·wide economy. In 1989, Key West was the first in the Keys to 

incorporate untral sewer, and did so via pump technologie-s becausto gravity fed systems were not 

appropriate. Via storm drains, the island has 11 intersections that inundate monthly during full moon 

high tides. and are easJiy exacerbated with less than one inth of nJin, The Oty"s 2012 Stormwater 

Master Plan utilized UOAR data to better address our flooding Issues. and committtd $SM of the next 

few years of Capital Improvement Funding for the installation of pump assist injection wells, 

elimination and/or retrofit of outfalls, Installation of injection wells, and re-trofit of existing Injection 

wells. 

Policies: The 2012 Comprehensive Plan included 56 new items of sustclinabiHty, includins adaptation 

language specifically referencing Adaptation Action Areas, raising of buildings. green infrastructure, 

natural areas resiliency and other innovative concepts. In the Land Development Regulations {lORs), 

the CitYs recently adopted Building Permit Allocation System only gives new residential unit permits 

to homes that build 1.5' above flood, obtain green certification and installl,OQO-gallon cisterns. The 

Oty has recently procured a consultant to do an overhaul of our lDRs, with half of the funds coming 

from a Sea Grant grant specifically for adaptation policy development. Mitigation funding 

mechanisms for transportation, tree canopy, stormwater, etc are specifically desired, as is higher 

allowable densities in order to make affordable housing developments more feasible. 

The study area is comprised of <600 aaes of land and water in the low-tying southeast corner of the 

island of Key West. The area is bounded to the north by Flagler Boulevard, and the Riviera canat to 

the east and south by the Atlantic Ocean, and to the West by White Street. Natural areas consist of 

the Salt Ponds, Indigenous Par*, Berg & Kitsos tracts1 the Uttle Hamaca Park complex, and .6 miles of 

b<!ach. 

There are three main components we wish to explore through the Resilient Redesign process: a low 

tying suburban nei&hborhood, the County airport and the eroding beach I state road that protecl$ it 

all. 
33 


410INSER13.eps

1) The 32 block "Indigenous Park neighborhood" holds the City's heaviest concentration of greatest 

flood damage, costing FEMA $127M in flood claims since 1983. Ranging in elevation from AE6 to 

AElO, the single family homes are primarily on-grade, concrete block, single story structures, with 

>90% built before 1970. The area experici\CM significant flooding with average rain events, espedally 

during hi&h tide$. While the City has recently revised our lOR's to incenthlize home raisin.g,. these 

homes cost significantly higher to raise ($100,000 versus $20,000 for a wood frame home). There is 

interest in piloting a modified flood proofing program here. 

2) The Monroe County lntern;;ttion;)l Airport w;;t~ built in the m iddle of., wctt;)nd. l-lo$tins fo1.1r mojor 

arrllnes, it serves 362,000 passengers annually. It was the most affected airport In the Compacts four 

County vulnerability study, with SO% of its property affected with only one foot of sea ev~ ri1e and 

94% affected by three feet of SlR. Inundation isn't" the biggest problem, however. Long before 

water rises over the tarmac, the saturated base material of the runway can compromise the strength 

and integrity of the landing strip. 

3) The beaches in Key West are small and well-loved. R.,t Beach and Smathers Beach, sandwich the 

Berg and Kitsos natural areas, along with a few condos, stretching for a total of .6 mfles of sand. 

While Smathers gets replenished from FEMA after large storms on a roughly S year average and sets 

as much as 150 feet at its widest., Rest Beach has not been replenished for 20 years and in many cases 

is undermining boardwalks, trees and structures. The remaining 1.8 miles of shoreline consists of the 

riprap used to protect South Roosevelt Boulevard, the southernmost stretch of AlA. An Important 

evacuation route for the island, South Roosevelt is buffeted by mangroves on the interior, but is 

mostly unprotected seawall on the Atlantic side. 

Defray Beach, Intracoastal Basin 

The Delray Beach Resilient Redesign S.tudy Area (study area) encompasses the eastern portion of the 

Town of Unton (platted in 1896) and a portion the Coastal Planning Area established in the Coastal 

Element of the local Government Comprehensive Pfan. The study ~1rea represents the essence of 

what is Delray Beach; the Village by the Sea. The long term sustainability and resilience of this area is 

essential to managing growth and preserving the charm. 

The study area is bounded on the north by George Bush Boulevard, south by lOth Street, west by 

North F•de<al Highway (6th Avenue), and east by the Erosion Controi lln• to the •ast of Highway AlA 

(Ocean Boulevard}. The eastern (barrier island) and western portions of the study area are split by 

the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway. The 703 acre study area Is comprised of 613 acres of land and 96 

au~s of water. As In other coastal urban areas, waterfront propcrt'Y and transportation 

infrastructure are subject to, or at risk, of flooding as a result of rain events, elrtreme high tide evenu, 

storm surge and sea level rise. The site's flood protection and drainage infrastructure Is in need of 

retrofitting and overall the community Is In need of a resflience and adaptation strat egy that will 

sustain the waterfront community with limited resources. 

The land in the study area is essentially built·out and the land use Is o\lerwhelmingly residential with 

more than half the area zoned for single family detadled housing. Commercial land uses are found 

along Atlantic Avenue (Central Business District), Ocean Boulevard, and George Bush Boulevard. 

Infrastructure Improvements and redevelopment within the study has been an ongoing process since 
34 


410INSER14.eps

the beginnings of the early settlement. The existing public infrastructure includes water, sewer, and 

redalmed water systems, storm drains, and streets to serve the built out character of the area. 

The economic oharacter of the study area is generally resideotial, with limited commercial 

development, provrding support for both re-.sidents and toud.sts. The e<onomy rs reflective of the 

economy of the City as a whole, and in turn, of the region. It is a service economy based upon 

full-time residents. There i.s, however, a significant tourist and seasonal component within the 

economy that is oriented toward the beach resource and downtown. 

There are two locally designclted Historic Districts in the Study Area. They are the Nassau Street 

Historic District and the Marina Historic District. There are ten individually designated structures on 

the local historic re-gister. The City has a Historic Preservation Ordinance which is administered by the 

Historic Pre.servation Board. That ordinance requires issuance of a Certificate of Appropriatene$$ by 

the Board prior to modification or new construction on properties in Historic Districts and on 

Individually designated sites. 

Natural resources consist of the beach/dune ecosystem and the offshore reef. In Delray Beach, there 

Is a single offshore coraJ reef, In approximately SS feet of water. long term monitoring Indicates this 

reef to be one of the healthie-st and most diverse reef environments In the region. Between the reef 

and shore is sand bottom, there are no hard bottom areas or reef or rock outcrops. 

The Oty has one of the premier beach erosion 'ontrol and nourishment progr~ms in the State of 

Florida. In 1973, the City constructed an initial beach restoration, placing sand by hydr~ulfc dredging 

from an offshore borrow area. Over the years maintenance and storm mitigation nourishment 

projects have been constructed. The beach nourishment project has successfullv provided storm 

protection for upland property. Since 1973, there has been no damage to upland property due to 

erosion or storm damage. 

Beach nourishment has proven to be 3 very satisfactory solution to long term erosion by prov;ding a 

flexible buffer to the Impact of storm waves. In addition to recreation al\d storm protection, beach 

nourishment has feaeated a habit-at for nesting sea turtles. 

The City has recreated a dune system at the Municipal Beach through a long term program of 

re<.onstruclion and maintenance. Over the years, this has resulted in a distinct fore dune and primary 

dune, vegetated in native species. Adjacent to privately owned properties, remnants of the natural 

dune have also survived. Many property owners have undertaken vegetation projects similar to those 

of the City to recreate a vegetated fore dune. 

Technically, there is no estuarine environment in the Delr'ay ~ach Resilient Redesign Study Area. The 

Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway has been channeliz·ed throughout the dty, and most of the shoreline is 

protected by seawalls. The natural areas which remain are not estuarine in a technical classification. 

However, the City consider$ the Atlanti( Intracoastal Waterway to be more than a transportation 

route and its estuarine features {living sllorelines) should be restored and protected. 
35 

Senator NELSON. Thank you, Dr. Berry. 

Mr. Hedde. 

STATEMENT OF CARL G. HEDDE, CPCU, HEAD, 

RISK ACCUMULATION DEPARTMENT, 

MUNICH REINSURANCE AMERICA INC. 

Mr. HEDDE. Good afternoon. Thank you for inviting me to testify. 

As Senator Nelson mentioned, I work for a company, Munich Re, 

that allows us to talk about climate change. 

Today, I want to share some thoughts on the potential financial 

impact posed by climate change and on resiliency steps that society 

must undertake to mitigate the human and financial toll of our 

changing climate. 

Let me begin with a quote from Dr. Peter Hoppe, Head of the 

Munich Re Corporate Climate Center, and a leading climate 

change expert. He said, ‘‘A look at the weather-related catastrophes 

of 2016 shows the potential effects of unchecked climate change. Of 

course, individual events themselves can never be attributed directly to climate change. But there are now many indications that 

certain events, such as persistent weather systems or storms bringing torrential rain and hail, are more likely to occur in certain regions as a result of climate change.’’ 

The insurance industry relies heavily on historical loss information to make business decisions. However, the use of historical loss 

data assumes that the risk we see today is the same that it was 

in the past. This is not always the case. As an industry, we also 

rely heavily on weather and climate data produced by NOAA. 

Losses from weather catastrophes in the U.S. have increased in 

both frequency and severity over the past 4 decades. In the U.S., 

socioeconomic changes have played a substantial role in this increase, but do not explain the entirety of the changes. It is likely 

that the changes in climate, whether from natural variability or 

due to man’s influence, are playing a role in these trends. 

During 2016, the U.S. experienced approximately 91 large natural catastrophe events. Of the 91 events, only two were caused by 

earthquakes. The other 89 events have a climate connection. 

The economic loss for these 91 events totaled approximately 

$43.9 billion U.S. dollars, of which $23.8 billion, or 55 percent, was 

covered by insurance. The difference is the amount that is not insured and thus directly borne by U.S. citizens in the form of retained loss, cost of disaster relief, or lost economic opportunity. 

Within the U.S., approximately 50 percent of all losses caused by 

large natural catastrophe losses are historically not covered by insurance. In the U.S., related events such as hurricanes and other 

wind-related events have a higher penetration of insurance coverage as compared to earthquake and flood events. 

Human safety is our greatest concern when natural cat events 

occur. During 2016, 260 lives were lost due to severe weather 

events in the U.S. Just weeks ago on March 30, a mother and her 

3-year-old daughter lost their lives in a relatively weak EF–1 tornado with estimated winds of about 100 miles per hour. The tornado occurred in Breaux Bridge, Louisiana, placing their mobile 

home in the HUD Zone 2, with mobile home design speed requirements of around 100 miles per hour. Unfortunately, it appears that 

36 

this mobile home was likely built before HUD standards were 

adopted, and it appears to have been placed on cinder blocks without tiedowns. 

Munich Re feels that if mobile homes were required to be properly sited and designed to the stronger HUD Zone 3 standards, this 

tragic loss of life could have been avoided. So we recommend that 

all mobile homes in the U.S. be designed and installed at the Zone 

3 standards, and those would be built to withstand about 110 miles 

per hour. 

These tragedies can be significantly reduced or even avoided if 

proper building codes and enforcement are in place. The citizens of 

Florida enjoy some of the most stringent building codes in the U.S. 

After Hurricane Andrew in 1992, Florida officials strengthened 

both the building codes and building code enforcement. It is time 

for building codes to be strengthened across the U.S. 

As a Nation, we must build stronger homes. Most of our homes 

and businesses are not built to a changing climate and the weather 

that a changing climate might bring. The cost in terms of lost lives, 

and damage to homes and businesses, and community post-event 

viability is devastating. 

So in summary, we must address climate change on multiple 

fronts. Munich Re supports a smart, balanced approach that protects the public but does not stifle business or innovation. Researching and addressing the genesis of climate change is one step. 

Preparing our Nation for the impacts of a changing climate must 

happen concurrently. 

National preparation must keep citizens safe in the face of the 

natural disasters we are experiencing. Safety starts in our homes, 

and extends to our schools and businesses. It is in the mutual interests of the Federal Government and the insurance industry to 

partner to find solutions in the areas of adaptation and risk. 

Thank you again for allowing me to testify today. 

[The prepared statement of Mr. Hedde follows:] 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF CARL G. HEDDE, CPCU, HEAD, RISK ACCUMULATION

DEPARTMENT, MUNICH REINSURANCE AMERICA INC. 

Good afternoon and thank you for inviting me to testify. I am Carl Hedde, Head 

of the Risk Accumulation Department at Munich Reinsurance America Inc., one of 

the largest reinsurers in the United States. 

Founded in 1917, we have over 1,000 employees serving our clients in the U.S. 

Our parent company, Munich Re, is one of the world’s leading reinsurers. 

Today I will share thoughts on the potential financial impacts posed by climate 

change, and on resiliency steps that society must undertake to mitigate the human 

and financial toll of our changing climate. 

Let me begin with a quote from Dr. Peter Hoppe, Head of the Munich Re Corporate Climate Center, and a leading climate change expert. Dr. Hoppe said, ‘‘A look 

at the weather-related catastrophes of 2016 shows the potential effects of unchecked 

climate change. Of course, individual events themselves can never be attributed directly to climate change. But there are now many indications that certain events— 

such as persistent weather systems or storms bringing torrential rain and hail—are 

more likely to occur in certain regions as a result of climate change’’. 

The insurance industry relies heavily on historical loss information to make business decisions. However, the use of historical data assumes that the risk we see 

today is the same as it was in the past. This is not always the case. As an industry, 

we also rely on weather and climate data produced by NOAA. 

Losses from weather catastrophes in the U.S. have increased in both frequency 

and severity over the past four decades. In the U.S., socioeconomic changes have 

played a substantial role in this increase, but do not explain the entirety of the 

37 

changes. It is likely that changes in climate, whether from natural variability or due 

to man’s influence, are playing a role in these trends. 

During 2016, the U.S. experienced approximately 91 large natural catastrophe— 

or ‘‘Nat cat’’ events, after removing small scale events. Of the 91 events, only two 

were caused by large earthquakes. The other 89 events have a climate connection. 

The frequency of earthquakes is remaining relatively constant. 

The upward trend in regard to losses from weather catastrophes is also apparent 

in the economic and insured losses for some weather-related perils, such as severe 

tornado and hail outbreaks in the U.S. 

The economic loss total for these 91 events totaled approximately $43.9 billion 

U.S. dollars, of which $23.8 billion, or 55 percent was covered by insurance. The difference between Economic and Insured Losses is the amount that is not insured and 

thus directly bourn by U.S. citizens in the form of retained loss, cost of disaster relief or lost economic opportunity. 


410HEDDE1.eps 410HEDDE2.eps
38 

Within the U.S., approximately 50 percent of all losses caused by large natural 

catastrophes are not covered by insurance. In the U.S., weather related events such 

as Hurricanes and other wind related events generally have a higher penetration 

of insurance coverage as compared to Earthquake events. The coverage penetration 

for flood protection is also very low, and presents a critical exposure for our citizens. 

Adaptation 

Human safety is our greatest concern when natural cat events occur. 262 lives 

were lost due to severe weather events in the U.S. in 2016. 

Just weeks ago, on March 30, 2017, a mother and her 3 year old daughter lost 

their lives in a relatively weak EF–1 Tornado with estimated winds of 100 MPH. 

The tornado occurred in Breaux Bridge, LA, placing their Mobile Home in the HUD 

Zone 2, with Mobile Home design speed requirements of 100 mph. Unfortunately it 

appears that this particular mobile home was likely built before HUD standards 

were adopted, and appears to have been placed on cinder blocks without tie-downs. 

Munich Re feels that if the Mobile Home was required to be properly sited and designed to the stronger HUD Zone 3 standards, this tragic loss of life could have been 

avoided. Munich Re recommends that all Mobile Homes in the U.S. be designed to 

the stronger HUD Zone 3 standards, which are built to withstand winds of 110 

MPH. 


410HEDDE3.eps 410HEDDE4.eps
39 

We constantly hear tragic stories of communities being devastated by severe 

weather events. These tragedies can be significantly reduced or even avoided if 

proper building codes and enforcement are in place. The citizens of Florida enjoy 

some of the most stringent building codes in the U.S. After Hurricane Andrew in 

1992, Florida officials strengthened both the building codes and building code enforcement. It is time for building codes to be strengthened across the U.S. . . 

Taking Action 

As a nation, we must build stronger homes. Most of our homes and businesses 

are not built to withstand the weather we have today, let alone the weather a 

changing climate might bring. The cost—in terms of lost lives, damage to homes and 

businesses, and community post-event viability—is devastating. 

Munich Re supports a non-profit organization called ‘‘IBHS’’—the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. The insurance industry and IBHS have been 

conducting research into, and promoting stronger building codes and construction 

practices. Much of the findings are incorporated into the IBHS Fortified Program 

which essentially promotes Code+ construction standards. 

Munich Re is committed towards the goal of making our country’s building stock 

more resilient than it is today. For example, Munich Re funded the development of 

a ‘‘tablet app’’ in partnership with the IBHS that can help users build or retrofit 

a home to IBHS Fortified standards. The ‘‘app’’ is available for free on the iTunes 

app store, and we encourage all attendees at today’s meeting to test it out and distribute it to your constituents. 

In summary, we must address climate change on multiple fronts. Munich Re supports a smart, balanced approach that protects the public, but does not stifle business or innovation. Researching and addressing the genesis of climate change is one 

step. Preparing our Nation for the impacts of a changing climate must happen concurrently. National preparation must keep citizens safe in the face of the natural 

disasters we are experiencing. Safety starts at our homes, and extends to our 

schools and businesses. It is in the mutual interest of the Federal Government and 

the insurance industry to partner to find solutions in the areas of adaptation and 

risk transfer. 

This makes absolute sense from a macroeconomic perspective, as lower subsequent losses will generate savings of several times the investment. Most importantly—these solutions can protect human lives. 

Thank you again for providing this opportunity for me to testify. 

Senator NELSON. Thank you, Mr. Hedde. 

Dr. Jurado. 

STATEMENT OF DR. JENNIFER L. JURADO, CHIEF RESILIENCE 

OFFICER AND DIRECTOR, ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING AND 

COMMUNITY RESILIENCE DIVISION, BROWARD COUNTY, 

FLORIDA 

Dr. JURADO. Thank you. Good afternoon, Senator Nelson, Congressman Deutch, and Mayors. It is a great honor to speak with 

you regarding the very real challenges facing our county and 

Southeast Florida as a whole regarding climate change. 

Our region is working aggressively to address the reality and the 

impact that sea-level rise is affecting our coastal counties. Not only 

is the global science clear, but regional data and local impacts align 

unambiguously with the predictions. 

We know that the sea level has risen and continues to rise at an 

ever-accelerating rate. Like many regions in the states, we are already grappling with the impacts. 

However, in South Florida, our circumstance is unique given the 

expansive impacts on our region’s drainage, our flood control, and 

our water supplies. 

These are not examples of future risk, but are reality today. 

Tidal flooding is not just a mere nuisance, but an agonizing recurrence for many of our communities. 

40 

Seasonal flooding isolates neighborhoods, restricts commerce, and 

disrupts essential services. 

As you see in the many photos, storm water systems and streets 

fill with seawater as walls are overtopped. Coastal waters backflow 

through pipes and storm drains. Marinas now funnel water into 

streets and nearby neighborhoods. And businesses, as Congressman Deutch has seen, must seal their front doors with caulk in 

order keep the water at bay. 

These are the visible impacts, but the region’s vulnerabilities extend well beyond the coastal corridor. Rising seas will contaminate 

40 percent of the coastal wellfield capacity in Broward County 

alone. Our regional flood management system, the Central and 

South Florida Flood Control Project, is losing capacity as rising 

seas restrict discharges at tidal structures, preventing flood relief 

during rainfall events. Groundwater elevations are rising, reducing 

soil storage and compounding flooding miles inland. 

The situation is challenging but it has also marshaled incredible 

leadership across our region. As you have heard, in 2010, the 

Southeast Florida Climate Change Compact was formed by 

Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties, inclusive 

of 108 cities in our region. Through the efforts of the Compact, we 

have accelerated climate resiliency policy, planning, projects, and 

aided the realization that immediate action is required. 

We understand science. We have developed the tools. Collectively, we are all utilizing the same sea-level rise projection to inform our planning, our consulting services. It is time to invest in 

infrastructure to reduce risk, improve our communities, and stimulate our economies. Across the region, we have adopted the sealevel rise projection. It is integrated across our processes. 

We have pursued strong partnerships with our Federal agencies 

that have continued to inform the scope, depth, and power of our 

work, a decade-long collaboration with the USGS to form the hydrologic models. We are utilizing tools developed by FEMA. We are 

partnering with the Army Corps of Engineers. We work with the 

EPA on resiliency studies. And we are utilizing a NOAA-funded 

project to further address resiliency. 

These are the investments that are now informing the design 

standards for drainage systems, higher finished floor elevations, 

and resiliency for interconnected systems. 

In Broward County, we are amending our code of ordinances to 

formally adopt a future conditions map for the design of all infrastructure in our county. We recognize local communities must 

shoulder certain conditions and responsibilities. However, Federal 

and State action are equally important. 

Given our location between two national priorities, the Everglades and the Atlantic Coast, our flood protection relies upon upgrades to the Central & South Florida Flood Control Project and 

the Intracoastal Waterway. 

We urge the Federal leadership to prioritize resiliency and infrastructure improvements of this infrastructure. We know the price 

tag will be large, but these are investments that will further the 

economies where we already account for one-third of the State 

GDP, but coastal communities also make up 50 percent of our national economy. 

41 

Investment in coastal resilience will bolster economic activity 

through vast public works projects, through the preservation of 

economies long term. And, ultimately, this is just the beginning in 

terms of where these impacts are most visible today. All of our Nation ultimately relies upon the revenues and economies that our 

coastal communities support. 

These impacts are already in motion. We hope that Federal leadership will continue to provide resources to support the science that 

aids our communities, clean energy that will help harness the magnitude of future changes, and investments in transportation programs where so much of our emissions are generated. 

We want to do our share of the national and international work 

to cut emissions and are eager to partner with the Federal Government in this effort. We thank you for the opportunity and the efforts to bring policy and resources to bear in addressing climate 

risk and impacts to our community and Nation. Thank you. 

[The prepared statement of Dr. Jurado follows:] 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF DR. JENNIFER L. JURADO, CHIEF RESILIENCE OFFICER AND

DIRECTOR, ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING AND COMMUNITY RESILIENCE DIVISION, 

BROWARD COUNTY, FLORIDA

Good morning, Senators, Representatives, and distinguished guests. 

I am Dr. Jennifer Jurado, Chief Resilience Officer and Director of the Environmental Planning and Community Resilience Division for Broward County. Thank 

you for convening this hearing here in Southeast Florida and for bringing attention 

to the vitally important issues of climate science, coastal risk, and the urgency of 

action. It is a great honor to speak with you regarding the very real challenges facing Broward County and southeast Florida as a whole. Our region is working aggressively to address the increasingly unavoidable realities of climate change, and 

the impacts of sea level rise in particular on coastal counties. 

Not only is the global science clear, but regional data and local impacts align unambiguously with the predictions. 

We know that the sea level has risen and continues to rise at an ever accelerating 

rate. Like many regions across the United States, we are already grappling with impacts. However, the south Florida circumstance is unique given the expansive impacts of sea level rise on our region’s drainage, flood control, and water supplies. 

These are not examples of future risk and exposure, but rather the reality we experience in our communities from sea level rise today. Tidal flooding is no longer 

a mere nuisance, but an agonizing recurrence for many south Florida communities, 

with water levels that increasingly exceed predictions and place people, businesses, 

and infrastructure at increased risk. 

Seasonal tidal flooding isolates neighborhoods, restricts commerce, and disrupts 

essential services. Stormwater systems and streets fill with water as seawalls are 

overtopped. Coastal waters backflow through storm drain pipes, causing water to 

rush out of storm drains. Marina boat ramps turn into funnels, pouring the ocean 

onto nearby streets and inundating neighborhoods. Businesses must seal their front 

doors with caulk to keep the water at bay. Employees and customers use alley entries, donning galoshes or rolling up their pant legs. Many have become practiced 

at making a mad dash for their vehicles before the parking lot and adjacent roadways become inundated with saltwater for 2–3 hour periods. This condition repeats 

12 hours later, and daily over the next week, and again the following month, and 

so on. 

These are the visible effects, but the region’s vulnerabilities to the impacts of sea 

level rise extend well beyond our coastal corridors. Our regional flood management 

system, the Central & South Florida Flood Control Project (CSF Project for short), 

is losing capacity as rising seas restrict discharges at tidal structures, compromising 

flood protection for inland communities miles away from the coast. The South Florida Water Management District has estimated that 18 of these structures are already within six inches of their design capacity. At the same time, due to our porous 

geology, groundwater elevations are rising in direct response to the rising sea, reducing the ability of the soil to store water and thereby exacerbating flooding. 

42 

The situation is immensely challenging, but it has also marshalled leadership 

from across our region, in an organized effort focused on both climate mitigation and 

adaptation strategies. In 2010, this regional collaboration was formalized as the 

Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, organized by Broward, Palm 

Beach, Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties, and inclusive of 108 municipalities. The 

efforts of the Compact have accelerated climate resiliency policy, planning, and 

projects throughout the region in an unprecedented fashion that has become a 

model for regions across the globe. There is an urgency in our efforts, and a growing 

realization across all sectors that the time for preemptive action has already passed 

and that immediate action is required. We understand the science. We have developed the tools. It’s time to invest in infrastructure and updated design standards 

that will reduce risk, improve our communities, and stimulate our economies. 

Our communities are taking action and ownership. Across the region we have formally adopted a unified sea level rise projection as the basis for adaptation planning 

and integrated that projection into capital, land use, water supply, transportation, 

emergency management, and capital investment plans. We have pursued strong 

partnerships with our Federal agencies, relationships that continue to expand in 

their scope, depth, and power to inform. 

This has included: 

• A decade-long collaboration with the United States Geological Service in the development of advanced hydrologic models to help assess the impacts of sea level 

rise on water supplies and flood elevations. 

• A resiliency study under the Planning Assistance for States Programs with the 

United States Army Corps of Engineers to evaluate the future flood conditions, 

risk reduction measures, and resiliency standards for sea walls. 

• A study that will build upon modeling tools developed by FEMA. A collaborative 

resiliency study with the EPA focused on a coastal municipality. 

• A partnership with Deltares, a Dutch water institute, in a NOAA-funded project 

focused on future flood risk, sectoral interactions, and decision-support for resiliency planning. 

The technical investments and projects are now being translated to practical applications as we prepare to update our regulations to address future flood conditions, including revised design standards for drainage systems, higher finished floor 

elevations, and consistent standards for interconnected and interdependent systems. 

These investments will help reduce flood risk, including future FEMA losses, and 

will create a foundation for a more resilient community and economy. 

We recognize our local communities must shoulder certain responsibilities to protect our residents, businesses, infrastructure, properties, and environmental resources, and we are aligned regionally in this determination. However, the effectiveness of our regional planning, of all of our investments, is dependent on strong Federal and state partnerships and joint action. Given our location between two vitally 

important national priorities, the Everglades and the Atlantic coast, our flood protection relies upon federally-supported upgrades to the Central & South Florida 

Flood Control Project and the Intracoastal Waterway. 

So, as we continue to make significant advancements regionally and locally, we 

urge our Federal leadership to prioritize the building of resilient communities and 

infrastructure and specifically request that our Federal and state partners undertake a detailed evaluation of the CSF Project and Intracoastal Waterway for flood 

protection service levels under evolving climate conditions, especially sea level rise, 

and to develop a comprehensive infrastructure and funding plan to execute the necessary improvements for our region’s flood protection. 

I mentioned the partnership agreement with the Army Corps to develop recommendations for resilient sea walls. With more than nearly 400 miles of armored 

and armored shoreline, preliminary estimates suggest a cost between $1 billion and 

$4 billion. Needless to say, this level of investment is beyond the means of Broward 

County government alone to finance. But this investment and many others will need 

to be undertaken, because the no-action alternative will be far more costly. 

Of course, seawalls are only part of the solution. Coastal flood control structures— 

part of the CSF Project—will need to be converted from gravity-based to pump-operated systems. Improvement of each structure is likely to cost around $50 million. 

Stormwater systems will need to be upgraded. Miami-Beach has advanced a $400 

million stormwater improvement plan, just to address sea level rise. Roads will need 

to be raised and drainage systems will need to be reengineered. 

Coastal communities account for nearly 50 percent of our national GDP. Southeast Florida accounts for one-third of our state GDP. Investment in the resilience 

of these communities is essential to preserving not only local economies, but our naVerDate Nov 24 2008 10:36 Sep 13, 2017 Jkt 075679 PO 00000 Frm 00046 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6621 S:\GPO\DOCS\20170410 JACKIE
43 

tional economy. Investments in resilience will provide shared benefits. Deferral is 

an option we cannot afford. 

I would also like to take a moment to acknowledge that we also have an obligation locally, as a state, and as a nation, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions—and 

this need is just as urgent. Many climate impacts will be unavoidable, given our 

emissions to date. But our choices today and in the next few decades about energy, 

transportation, land use, food, and environmental protection will determine if future 

generations face manageable climate impacts or severely compromised conditions. 

In Southeast Florida, we are well aware of our contributions to the problem of 

climate change. We have some programs in place to reduce our energy and fuel use, 

but our efforts are admittedly too modest. We face significant challenges—often beyond our direct control—in deploying solar energy, reducing building energy use, 

and transitioning to a transportation system with more choices and fewer emissions. 

Fortunately, the Federal Government has been a leader and partner over the last 

decade, helping local governments and regions to begin to overcome these barriers 

by offering significant technical assistance, backed by national-level policy decisions 

which provide great benefit to our vulnerable region. We hope that our Federal leadership continues to provide resources to Federal agencies for climate science, clean 

energy and transportation programs, and local assistance. We want to do our share 

of the national and international work to cut emissions, and we will, but we continue to need the Federal Government’s help. 

Thank you again for this opportunity and for your efforts to bring policy and resources to bear in addressing the risk and impacts of climate change on our communities and nation. 

Senator NELSON. Thank you. 

I want to commend all of you. I have never seen witnesses pay 

attention to the 5-minute rule. 

[Laughter.] 

Senator NELSON. So thank you. 

By the way, if anybody is wondering why we do not have somebody that has the opposite opinion here, we have had that plenty 

of times in front of this Committee. The case today is the Full Committee. But a year ago, we had the Science and Space Subcommittee chaired by Senator Cruz of Texas, and the minority was 

allowed one witness. There were four witnesses by the majority, 

and all of them were denying that the climate was changed. 

We selected as the minority witness the former head of meteorology for the United States Navy, a retired Admiral. And of course, 

he presented in livid and living detail a lot of the points that you 

all have pointed out. 

So there has been a fair hearing of all parts of the issue saying 

that it is fair and balanced. However, when you talk about scientific attitudes, it is another thing. So, thank you, you are particularly good on this. 

Now, what is the procedure here? The Committee will ask some 

questions of the witnesses. I am going to defer to our witnesses up 

here, and I will do some cleanup. 

So let me turn to Congressman Deutch. 

Mr. DEUTCH. Thanks very much, Senator. 

Thanks so much to the witnesses. I think the answer to why are 

there not other views, Dr. Kirtman, you provided the answer, 

which I will refer to over and over again, and that is ‘‘multiple 

lines of evidence,’’ and it is appropriate for us to be hearing from 

all of you who have seen and understand and appreciate those multiple lines of evidence. 

I want to ask a question to everyone on the panel, and it has to 

do with the President. And I would like you, if the President were 

sitting here across from you, instead of as close as he is on a regVerDate Nov 24 2008 10:36 Sep 13, 2017 Jkt 075679 PO 00000 Frm 00047 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6601 S:\GPO\DOCS\20170410 JACKIE
44 

ular basis, as our Mayors know, here in Palm Beach County—I do 

not want to focus on the concerns that a lot of us have about statements from some in the Administration about climate change and 

how they view climate change. I want to focus on the President’s 

campaign promise and repeated statements since being elected that 

he wanted to make a massive investment in infrastructure. 

And I want to take advantage of having all of you here, because 

you all, in one way or another, have talked about the importance 

of resiliency and adaptability and preservation and mitigation. 

So if the President asked you what kinds of investments in our 

big infrastructure plan that we all hope is coming, what kinds of 

investments can we make that will sustain our economy, generate 

economic growth, and, at the same time, help us address the very 

real issues that we are grappling with that have been the focus of 

this hearing, what kinds of investments would you tell him to 

make? 

Dr. Jurado, why don’t we start with you? 

Dr. JURADO. Sure, I would be glad to address that question. 

First of all, beginning with the Central and South Florida flood 

control system, we know that 18 of the salinity control structures 

on the system are within 6 inches of their design capacity. Those 

gravity control structures need to be retrofit with pumps, and we 

need a comprehensive plan on how we will maintain flood elevations for flood protection for an entire community through modified operation and investment in that system. 

During the 2015 high tide events, the Intracoastal Waterway has 

been overtopped in Broward County and Hollywood. Last year, the 

high tide events were 1 inch beneath the top wall of the Intracoastal Waterway. This is Federal infrastructure well beyond the 

capacity of any community to be able to upgrade. We are working 

with the Army Corps of Engineers on recommended top elevations 

for our seawalls under future climate conditions. We should use 

that information to inform investments on those barriers to coastal 

flooding. 

Seawalls in Broward County, we have 350 miles of shoreline 

with all the finger canals and waterways in the county. Those will 

collectively have to be upgraded to a common top elevation. Easily, 

that price tag is $1 billion to $4 billion, depending on the structural 

integrity of those seawalls. 

And you have all the municipal storm systems and roadways 

that can potentially be addressed at the same time. 

Those are the key pieces of infrastructure that I suggest we 

might begin with. 

Mr. DEUTCH. Thank you very much. 

Mr. Hedde? 

Mr. HEDDE. Sure. As a global insurer, reinsurer, we wind up 

paying losses across a wide spectrum of properties, whether they 

are residential or commercial. And we are strong supporters of 

stronger and large investment in infrastructure. We focus on the 

infrastructure that ultimately will protect these businesses and 

homes that we are working in. 

On a micro level, listening to us, we talk a lot about protecting 

homes, better building codes. We are a member of the IBHS, the 

45 

Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, focusing on keeping people safe with broader, better protection across the economy. 

Mr. DEUTCH. Dr. Berry? 

Dr. BERRY. Yes, I would focus on the kind of infrastructure. And 

just like after hurricanes, we have a tendency to put back what 

was there before. I would like to see any new infrastructure from 

roads to waterways and so on built with an appreciation of climate 

change. 

Let’s have roadways that cannot move water off them but can 

add water into them. Let’s build water and roadways that are compatible with one another. 

What we often do is put in a highway, and then we have to add 

drains and we have to add all kinds of other things to get rid of 

the water up there. 

Let’s look at an integrated way to use a big $1 trillion infrastructure bill to create a new moon landing kind of approach to it. Let’s 

not do what we have done. Let’s create a new image of what is the 

infrastructure of the future, and build our electronic infrastructure 

into this too. We always think of roads and rails. What about the 

electronic infrastructure that we need? How should that be? How 

do we look at that 20 years ahead? 

So a futuristic view is what I would appreciate. 

Mr. DEUTCH. Thank you. 

Dr. Kirtman, any thoughts? 

Dr. KIRTMAN. It is difficult for me to expand on what my colleagues have said. That is a wonderful list. I hope that all happens. 

The one thing is I would like to underscore some comments that 

Len said. I think it is critically important that we take a holistic 

view when we think about infrastructure, and that holistic view 

has to include multiple time horizons and multiple inputs. 

So we really need to be very, very careful that we implement a 

no-regrets strategy, that we do not do anything that we regret 10 

years or 20 years or 30 years from now, and we also need to be 

very careful that we take in all the best available information. We 

need to anticipate all of the unanticipated events that could happen 

in how we design our infrastructure in the future. 

There are going to be very difficult decisions in the future about 

how we go forward, and we need to start thinking and planning for 

those things now. That requires socialization and that requires a 

lot of careful thinking, and we need to do that. 

Mr. DEUTCH. Thanks. 

Senator, I hope that, in addition to taking these findings from 

this hearing back to Washington, that you will share these responses with the White House as well, as they are putting together 

this infrastructure plan. Everything that our witnesses suggested 

will not only help us address climate change but will help to preserve and strengthen our economy, which is the goal that I think 

we all share, Democrats and Republicans, and what is ought to be 

driving us today. 

Senator NELSON. I am curious, Dr. Berry. What do you mean by 

a road—I got the impression that it is a road that absorbs water? 

Dr. BERRY. Yes. 

Senator NELSON. Tell me, what is it made of? 

46 

Dr. BERRY. I know in Chicago that any sidewalk renovation is 

done with permeable sidewalks. This is not my field, so I am kind 

of brainstorming. But can we have roads that do not spew water 

everywhere and create new problems on either side, particularly 

here in Florida? But if we had roads that could absorb water rather 

than disperse water, then I think we would be dealing with two 

problems at the same time. I know there is some technology. 

Senator NELSON. You are seeing that in driveways, for example, 

in homes. The intrigue that you have caused me to wonder is, can 

you get that kind of surface that will stand up to the wear and tear 

of trucks, et cetera? 

Dr. BERRY. That is where our challenges come from. 

Senator NELSON. That is exactly right. 

Madam Mayor? 

Ms. MUOIO. Just to sort of add to that, I think we have to be rethinking our whole transportation system, and roads and cars and 

be working on mass transit and alternative ways to get people 

around other than building another road. 

So a question I have as a local leader, we are charged locally 

with building codes and establishing building codes. What would 

you advise us to do in terms of our building codes to be more resilient to sea-level rise? What kinds of things should we be including 

in our building codes moving forward? 

We can start with Dr. Kirtman. 

Dr. KIRTMAN. So, first of all, I think all building codes should include all the possible scenarios of sea-level rise over the lifetime of 

the building. So that should be a requirement. We should be thinking about how does a building recover from tidal flooding and 

storm surge flooding. 

So I think we have to think that there is going to be time when 

the ground floor, whether that be parking or what, is going to be 

flooded. And how rapidly are you going to recover? 

So I think we have to think that our buildings are going to have 

a certain amount of flooding that is going to happen, but how 

quickly can you recover? I think that is how we have to think about 

our building codes, is think about rapid recovery from anticipated 

events. 

Ms. MUOIO. Dr. Berry? 

Dr. BERRY. Already, in Miami-Dade, a number of hospitals have 

taken electrical equipment and raised it. I think that is for houses 

too. I think we have to look at the potential fire hazards and potential electrical hazards and make sure those are out of a reasonable 

flood zone. 

So that is not a usual building code, but that is one I think ought 

to be implemented. 

Mr. HEDDE. I would identify three areas. 

I think from the local community standpoint, it starts with a 

planned use plan and keeping structures out of harm’s way. That 

is one of the easiest things. 

As I have worked on building code issues, I have been appalled 

at the lack of strength in some communities’ building codes. Luckily, in Florida, they are fairly strong. 

So the second piece I would agree would be the elevation of the 

structure, make sure the structure is elevated. 

47 

I think the last piece that people forget is that we need to build 

foundation systems that are strong enough to withstand storm 

surge. A lot of these things are not strong enough. So in spite of 

being elevated, they do not withstand the storm surge. 

Dr. JURADO. I think that the responses thus far have been quite 

substantial. I appreciate the need to elevate structures and have 

some uniformity. Consistently, we hear about the importance of 

having consistency across our codes, making sure that whatever we 

do in the build environment will be consistent with transportation 

and drainage systems, since everything is interconnected. 

But independent of the resiliency of flood protection, focus I 

think on the challenge in Florida, which is the inability to dictate 

really on how to treat energy within the build environment. There 

are substantial limitations about requirements for renewable energy many local governments, for example, might want to see advance. 

So some flexibility with regards to energy code at the State level 

would be useful. 

Ms. MUOIO. Very good. Thank you so much for your comments. 

I appreciate it. 

Senator NELSON. Madam Mayor? 

Ms. BURDICK. Thank you. 

We have talked a lot about what we can do to mitigate the impacts of climate change. And I thought I heard, Dr. Berry, that 

there is nothing that we can do to mitigate those in the near future? 

We talk about carbon and carbon tax. We talk about trying to reduce the problems of climate change. We hoped that we were going 

to get cutbacks on coal, and it looks like some of that is changing. 

So what are some of the preventive things that we should be 

doing locally, nationally, and globally, to reduce climate change? 

And how do we best educate our public? 

Dr. BERRY. For Florida, I am not a pessimist, but I am a realist, 

in the sense that we should mitigate what we can. We should have 

clean energy, and we should be efficient. But the rest of the world 

is imposing its will on us at least for the next 20, 30, 40 years in 

that the emissions that we are already on our way to creating or 

are already there are going to result in sea-level rise. If we stop 

everything now, there still will be sea-level rise. We are not going 

to stop everything now. It is too complicated. 

So sea level and emissions are going to go on in the best world, 

in my opinion, for 20 or 30 years. Therefore, given where we are, 

we have to mitigate the impact of the global sea-level rise. 

At the same time, we ought to be moving to new forms of energy. 

We ought to be moving, as the mayor says, to thinking through not 

just electric cars but ways of transportation. We started. We have 

local communities that are very advanced in that. 

Changing our ways of life individually is something that I do not 

do very well but some people do in terms of where we go, what we 

transport, how we manage driving a single car or driving with four 

people. There are lots of small things that we ought to do. But we 

also ought to be realistic and say the big picture for South Florida 

is not going to change until we better understand how we can manage it and take advantage of it. 

48 

What I say in my written testimony is that we have the opportunity, as Commissioner Abraham said in another interview, of creating innovation technology in dealing with flooding, in dealing 

with structure that I have talked about. 

So we can turn a problem into an opportunity here in South Florida. We are the bad example, if you like. Bad, but we can turn it 

into something good. It is a lesson, like the Dutch. The Dutch are 

exporters of technology to deal with floods. 

We could create our own patterns of technology, our own social 

responses, and, therefore, be exporters of good things to the rest of 

the coastal areas of the country that are going to have the same 

problems that we are having maybe 5, 10 years down the road. 

Ms. BURDICK. It makes that collaboration piece with the South 

Florida regional climate compact all the more important so that we 

can all work together to find these innovative solutions and implement them. 

Thank you. 

Senator NELSON. And the big difference between the Netherlands 

and Florida is that we sit on top of a honeycomb of all kinds of materials that are decayed from seashells and critters over millions of 

years, and that honeycomb of limestone is filled with water. Thus, 

saltwater intrusion, because saltwater is heavier than freshwater. 

As the saltwater rises, it comes inland, and it invades our honeycomb. 

You, Dr. Jurado, have had a number of your wellfields in 

Broward County invaded. You have closed two in the county. Hallandale Beach has relocated further to the west six. Deerfield 

Beach has abandoned eight. 

So what in the world? 

Dr. JURADO. The issue of saltwater intrusion is incredibly problematic. Working with the USGS, we have seen that sea-level rise 

has accelerated the land movement of the front by about a factor 

of two. We, as I indicated, expect to lose about 40 percent of coastal 

wellfield capacity in the future sea-level rise, and that is sea-level 

rise, because we are actually precluded, the regional policy for taking more from the Biscayne aquifer, and thus we have an offset. 

So this was really driven by sea-level rise. 

And so that will require substantial relocation of wells to the 

west. We are also working with Palm Beach County, however, and 

a diverse number of stakeholders on a regional reservoir. And that 

is the other thing that we need in our region is more storage, because we simply lack the land for long-term water storage. Even 

though we receive rainfall of 20 inches at a time, we are trying to 

find a place to put it. 

But storage in the system when we are trying to manage saltwater intrusion in extreme drought is going to be really critical, 

and it is another piece of infrastructure funding. We are pursuing 

funds to the tune of $160 million for Phase 1 of the C–51 reservoir, 

which could provide water supply and environmental benefits for 

Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties—full-scale, a $460 

million reservoir providing up to 150 million gallons per day and 

water supply for the region. 

49 

So investments in alternative water supplies such as storm water 

reuse and reclaimed water coupled with conservation will be an absolute necessity. 

Senator NELSON. And, Congressman, this fits hand-in-glove with 

our Everglades restoration efforts, moving that water south and increasingly getting it cleansed as it is coming south, ultimately into 

Everglades Park into Florida Bay as well as the Shark River 

Slough. 

How do these municipalities monitor the aquifer to determine 

whether the freshwater has been contaminated? 

Dr. JURADO. We have an extensive groundwater monitoring network with wells that are maintained by the South Florida Water 

Management District, by the individual water utilities, by Broward 

County, and by the USGS. So this saltwater network is monitored 

monthly. We have more than 50 years of data the state has now 

used to help develop models that are informing our decisions today. 

So it is a vast network, one that we are actually upgrading. Just 

now we have been holding regional workshops. Since the saltwater 

front has moved beyond many of the wells that were previously 

used to measure the advancement of the front, they are already 

salty, so we are having to recalibrate that network for the current 

condition. But it is aggressively monitored and wellfields managed 

in accordance with these water shortages and predictive losses. 

Senator NELSON. And moving those wells further west ultimately 

ends up with the customer paying more because of the added expense. 

Dr. JURADO. That is correct. Moving the wellfields will cost something. We also have to recognize that we have water treatment facilities that are associated with individual wellfields. And if we 

have to move the wellfields outside of the regional water treatment 

facilities, then you are potentially looking at new water treatment 

facilities as well. 

The other thing though is, if we have to move to reclaimed water 

or brackish water sources as an alternative water supply, those require more in the way of treatment to produce potable water and 

much higher energy costs. So the reservoir option is highly attractive because it is freshwater. It does not require a higher level of 

treatment, such as the removal of salt. 

So storm water reuse coupled with conservation are really the 

most attractive strategies. 

Senator NELSON. Dr. Kirtman and Dr. Berry, you know I mentioned at the outset the attempts to try to cut the budgets of anything that measures climate change. This is all the way from programs existing in NOAA and NASA to future satellites that would 

have all of these very intricate measurements. 

Now, to what extent does your work rely on climate-observing 

platforms like those satellites? 

Dr. KIRTMAN. A great deal of my work relies on observing networks. 

So one of the projects we have at the University of Miami is to 

make forecasts based on decades. And how do you make those forecasts? You need to have some way of saying what the state of the 

climate system is today in order to project it into the future. That 

information, that state of the climate system today, comes from our 

50 

observing networks, our satellite platforms, our ocean buoy systems, our drifter buoy systems, our radio sound data. 

If we stop collecting data, that is truly putting your head in the 

sand. Just because you stop collecting data does not mean the climate change problem is not continuing to progress. 

So first and foremost, you need to monitor the health of the climate system. That is first and foremost. We have to put a red line 

in the sand in stopping any attempt to remove the collection of 

data. This is critical. 

Senator NELSON. Just to put a point to this and to underline it, 

I want, Dr. Kirtman, if you will, just shortly describe how a lot of 

this data that you are talking about for climate change also goes 

into our computers to help us with the direction and the velocity 

and the intensity of hurricanes. 

Dr. KIRTMAN. Exactly. That is a wonderful question, Senator. 

It is exactly the same kind of data that we use to make better 

forecasts for extreme rainfall, better forecasts for hurricanes. All of 

that data is the data of the climate system. We do not make a distinction when we observe the atmosphere of the ocean, the land 

surface. We do not make a distinction whether it is climate change 

data or whether it is just weather data. It is data. 

If we throw away that data on the state of the ocean because we 

worry about it revealing some climate change, we are throwing 

away our opportunity to improve our forecasts for the intensity of 

hurricanes, our ability to predict storm surge. 

I cannot say enough how much of a threat this is to lives and 

property and economic opportunity and national security. This is 

day-to-day weather, not only climate change. It is of paramount importance. 

Senator NELSON. Dr. Berry, did you want to add to that? 

Dr. BERRY. I am as passionate as he is with this. It is not just 

for science. Communities that are dealing with current problems 

need to have information. Miami Beach cannot put the pumps in 

there and just guess that sea-level rise or that king tides are a certain height or sea-level rise is going to be something. We need information. Companies need information. Engineering work needs 

that same information. 

The company I work with at the household level is using LIDAR 

data based on NOAA. We are using tide data. We are using all 

kinds of data that come out of the Federal Government. 

This government, I mean, I was born in England, and one of the 

things that I recognized many decades ago is that information is 

treated differently in different parts of the world. We have a tradition going back dozens, hundreds of years of saying the data comes 

from taxpayers and it goes back to taxpayers. It is open. 

And I was so impressed with the USGS at one time putting data 

out on streamflow. And who used it? Trout fishermen, OK? And 

that is great. 

And so I cannot emphasize how important it is not just for 

science but for everybody. 

Senator NELSON. And that is so true in Florida not only for commercial fishermen but for recreational fishermen as well. 

51 

Now, Mr. Hedde, your industry, the reinsurance industry, so you 

are insuring against catastrophe, you really rely on this data, don’t 

you, to make your calculations? 

Mr. HEDDE. Yes. So I asked if I could comment because we definitely rely on this information. 

That is a surprise to some who really do not understand our industry, where we rely on this information to value risk. 

When you value risk, if you add uncertainty into the value, that 

impacts the valuation, usually on the higher side of the price. So 

that is one way. 

A lot of our transactions, especially in the reinsurance industry, 

are based on triggers that are based on NOAA data that’s supplied. 

So I made a point in my testimony today to say that we rely on 

NOAA information. 

Senator NELSON. All right. Just so that you will know how we 

are getting all the more accurate, you have heard of the Hurricane 

Hunters. They fly into the hurricane. They are usually in the range 

of 15,000 to 30,000 feet. 

They are taking data real-time from their instruments. They are 

dropping an instrumented package about that long. It has a little 

parachute on it, and it goes all the way down to the ocean. It sends 

back real-time data to the airplane, which is sent immediately by 

satellite to the National Hurricane Center. 

At the same time flying over the top of the hurricane is the G– 

IV. We had it down one time during a hurricane, so I think we are 

able to get another one. We just got it in the NOAA bill. And it 

is doing the same thing, from 45,000 feet, dropping an instrument. 

Here is the latest gizmo, and the P–3 that goes into the storm. 

Now they are putting out through a hole that big an instrumented package that comes out and, all of a sudden, it sprouts 

wings and a motor fires up. And now you have a UAV inside the 

hurricane that can fly actually in and stay in the hurricane eyewall 

giving us more measurements. 

And they are thinking that we might get an accuracy as a result 

of that from 10 to 15 percentage points even more accurate in our 

data. 

Now, Dr. Jurado, so the people that are trying to muzzle scientists—it is happening. I have seen it in Washington. I have seen 

it here in the state of Florida Government. 

Could you do your job effectively if you could not use certain scientific terms? 

Dr. JURADO. I cannot imagine planning for the future conditions 

of the community and making informed policy planning investment 

decisions without recognizing the reality of what the driving factors 

are. And in our region, climate change and sea-level rise are the 

primary influences for which we need to be organizing policy planning investments for decades to come. I cannot imagine those being 

informed or fruitful investments if they were not based upon credible use of scientific data and in large part on contemplation of the 

impacts of climate change on our environment. 

Senator NELSON. And, Mr. Hedde, what would happen in your 

industry if you, as a consumer, a homeowner, could not get accurate climate data and climate change on which to make your decisions on what your purchases are? 

52 

Mr. HEDDE. We have seen a change in our industry over the last 

5 years. 

About 5 years ago, our clients would ask us to come and talk 

about climate change at the board level but tell us specifically not 

to use ‘‘climate change’’ in our words. Over the last couple years, 

we still come back and talk about climate change, but they are allowing us to use ‘‘climate change.’’ 

It comes back to my point before. We use the data to accurately 

assess risk. And insurance plays such an important part in our 

economy, if we are not properly able to assess the risk, it is a drag 

on the economy. 

So it makes our answers better. It makes our product better. It 

makes our response to events better. 

Senator NELSON. And would you believe that I have even had to 

file a Scientific Integrity Act to define common scientific values free 

from political interference? 

Mr. HEDDE. It does not surprise me. 

Senator NELSON. It has come to that, as well as to try to keep 

from the intimidation and censorship that we see. 

Congressman, do you have another question? 

Mr. DEUTCH. Thank you, Senator. 

I just want to follow up on your important question about terminology and what is actually happening. 

I think it is fair to say, and the witnesses can correct me if I am 

wrong, and, Mr. Hedde, I think you just alluded to this, that every 

major company in the United States and likely in the world devotes 

some core part of its time and resources to addressing the issues 

that we will be grappling with as a result of climate change, 

whether it is supply chain disruptions, issues driving sustainability, the severity of storms. 

So the business community understands that we have to be tackling this, and they do it in a thoughtful and responsible way. And 

I am sure the same is true for Senator Nelson for meetings I have 

had in my office with corporate leaders from some of the largest 

corporations, including energy companies who understand that we 

have to start to anticipate the impact this is having, address it, and 

even recognize that carbon has a cost in doing business. 

So the business community gets it. 

Local government, again, Dr. Jurado, as a professional, not a politician, local governments run by Democratic and Republican administrations who are grappling with sea-level rise firsthand and 

the impact firsthand, and the issues of climate change firsthand, 

are having responsible discussions about how to address it, because 

as Dr. Kirtman points out, when we have multiple lines of evidence 

making it clear that human activity makes a dramatic impact on 

climate change, then we all have to be examining it. 

Why is it—I am not sure that anybody can answer this. Perhaps 

it is a rhetorical question. But why is it that when the business 

community understands what is at stake for the future of our economy and our country, and our local governments understand what 

is at stake, why is it that there are some in important roles in our 

government who continue to, as, Dr. Kirtman, I think as you put 

it, continue to put their hand in the sand? And, by the way, in 

Florida, that sand is the coastline and the water is getting closer. 

53 

[Laughter.] 

Mr. DEUTCH. So why is it that there is this ongoing denial that 

we see in some very narrow segments of our government? 

I am not sure, Senator, if anyone wishes to answer that. 

[Laughter.] 

Mr. DEUTCH. But I suppose I would ask another way. 

You would agree that, given your eloquent testimony and the 

work that every one of you does every day in this area, that it is 

difficult if not impossible to accept the fact that there are those in 

important positions of power who will continue to deny the necessity of taking on these issues that every one of you has devoted 

your life to? 

Four nods across the table. 

Senator NELSON. I am going to ask the Congressman’s question 

in another way. 

First of all, one of you testified about, particularly after Hurricane Andrew, the changing building standards. 

That is something I will never forget, flying in a National Guard 

helicopter over ground zero the day after Hurricane Andrew. There 

were two buildings that were left standing. One was the bank 

building, and the other one was an old Florida cracker house that 

had been built in the 1920s to withstand wind. Everything else was 

leveled. 

Indeed, as a result of that rather traumatic experience in 1992, 

we have really, to the credit of the local communities and their governments, brought up building standards. 

So, certainly, that means a lot to you, Mr. Hedde. But it also 

means a lot to folks like this from local government that you do 

have predisaster mitigation grants and community rating systems 

to reduce the risk. And that means that you need those FEMA programs. 

And remember what I said? They were reducing FEMA 11 percent in the budget for these kind of programs? What would that do 

to you in Broward County, Dr. Jurado? 

Dr. JURADO. Broward County and many of the local communities 

in our state are very active participants in CRS. The CRS program 

has served as a critical incentive for really robust flood mitigation 

strategies that reduce our reliance on FEMA because we have 

built-in protections in the way we develop and design the community. 

The savings are, I don’t know, in the tens and hundreds of millions of dollars in terms of the policy reductions that are delivered 

to residents in the community. We are strong supporters of the 

CRS and the type of robust standards that have elevated all of our 

flood protection measures by helping deliver resources to communities. 

And with FEMA being $30 billion, $20 billion in the negative, we 

can no longer afford to expose ourselves to flood risks, and we need 

programs that help all of our communities build resilience and do 

it cost-effectively. The cost of insurance has to be something we 

keep our eye on. 

Senator NELSON. Mayors, I have one more question. Do you have 

any questions? 

Ms. MUOIO. Thank you so much for being here. 

54 

Senator NELSON. Absolutely. Thank you, Madam Mayor. All right, Mr. Hedde, you mentioned that there was over $40 billion in economic loss due to storm events just last year in 2016, 

and you said that about half of that was insured losses. So that 

means the remaining half was not insured, so that was going to 

have to be paid by somebody. 

So given the modeling scenarios that you have seen, do you think 

those losses that are primarily being borne by the individuals, 

since they were not insured losses, will rise in the future, given 

what we are seeing? 

Mr. HEDDE. That is a tough calculation. We see a pretty steady 

historical insured versus noninsured penetration within the U.S., 

so I think everything will rise most likely at that variable. 

What disturbs me more is the lack of penetration on flood insurance, where we do not see a large penetration of flood insurance 

or earthquake insurance. I think that ultimately will impact the 

banking industry, because so much of their portfolio is not insured 

upfront. 

So we are looking at solutions for increasing the penetration of 

flood insurance and participating heavily in NFIP program insurance this year. We developed our inland flood product that we are 

offering to people, not competing with the NFIP but supplementing 

people who do not live in coastal regions but are subject to inland 

flooding. 

So I think there are ways to address that. Ultimately, I look at 

it as we need to change behavior, both in the long term and the 

short term. 

And coming back to the question around funding, I think we 

need to make incentives available to help people change behavior, 

become more resilient, whether it is building a stronger house, 

whether it is energy efficiency. There are so many things that we 

need to have funds for to be able to take care of this problem. 

Senator NELSON. I want to thank everybody. We have covered 

this subject in depth. It is exactly what we wanted to do in a field 

hearing. 

Thank you, and the meeting is adjourned. 

[Applause.] 

[Whereupon, at 3:14 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.] 

(55) 

A P P E N D I X 

RESPONSE TO WRITTEN QUESTION SUBMITTED BY HON. BILL NELSON TO

BEN KIRTMAN, PH.D. 

Question. Dr. Kirtman, you told us that for about 800,000 years, the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere stayed between 180 and 280 parts per million. And in 

less than 150 years, we’ve seem an unprecedented rise in CO2. A few years ago, I 

visited the NOAA observatory on top of Mauna Loa, and it was a bittersweet moment. The CO2 reading was 399. The scientists told me it was probably the last 

reading that would be below 400 parts per million. Today, we are at 405 parts per 

million. 

Dr. Kirtman, without action to curb emissions, what is the likely carbon concentration we will see in 10 years? And even with significant climate action now, 

will we still need to invest in adaptation to make coastal communities more resilient? 

Answer. Given the current trajectory, I would expect CO2 levels to go from 405 

ppmv today to about 450 ppmv ten years from today. 

Even if we were somehow about to reduce CO2 levels to say 370 ppmv (the concentration from 2000) today we would still be committed to significant warming for 

the next 25 years. This is the climate change commitment that is already ‘‘bakedinto’’ the system. Essentially, adaptation will always be a 25-year or so time horizon 

challenge as long as greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to rise. 

RESPONSE TO WRITTEN QUESTION SUBMITTED BY HON. BILL NELSON TO

LEONARD ‘‘LEN’’ BERRY, PH.D. 

Question. Dr. Berry, your testimony included a letter to the President signed by 

several Florida scientists that notes three important climate change considerations: 

the need for continued Federal earth science research, the importance of scientific 

integrity, and federally important coastal properties at risk. 

The letter specifically mentioned the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral. 

Can you describe how sea level rise may threaten our space launch capabilities? 

Answer. In highlighting the vulnerability of many military facilities to sea level 

rise, we, as scientists, are stating the obvious. 

Air Force bases, Naval bases, and many Army bases are located in coastal areas, 

and in the search for flat, available land, many are on the coast at low levels above 

the high tide mark. In a world where sea levels had remained relatively stable for 

hundreds of years, this made sound sense, particularly as aircraft and rockets could 

take off across the ocean. 

In the world of today, where sea levels have already risen at least nine inches, 

and are on an accelerating course, with anticipated rises of up to two feet in the 

next thirty years, and more than double that by the end of the century, those coastal locations can present tough problems. 

Higher sea levels provide a higher base level for storm surge and also high ground 

water tables which can compromise infrastructure. Bases in Florida provide plenty 

of examples. Patrick (near Cocoa), McDill (near Tampa) and Elgin (in the Panhandle) Air Force Bases all have areas close to sea level. McDill has a mean height 

of about five feet, easily vulnerable to storm surge now and in the future. Patrick 

AFB and Elgin AFB are higher but have significant areas of vulnerability. 

But the most threatened facilities are at Cape Canaveral, where a recent report 

has said ‘‘rising sea levels are the single biggest threat to the facility with over two 

thirds of constructed infrastructure and more of the land area are below sixteen feet 

and vulnerable to storm surge as sea levels rise.’’ (Source: https://www.giss.nasa 

.gov/research/features/201508_risingseas/) 

It is important to note two things. First, the bad news is that projections of the 

rate and amount of sea level rise are growing steadily, as we have more information 

and understanding of the processes involved. The second is better news, that with 

56 

ongoing basic research and analysis, we can be continually better informed and able 

to adapt and protect these vital facilities. 

As many have said, adaption needs to start now based on the best available 

science and the best ongoing collection of vital data. The very facilities under risk 

are those needed to preserve our information flow and our ability to guide our future. 

RESPONSE TO WRITTEN QUESTIONS SUBMITTED BY HON. BILL NELSON TO

CARL G. HEDDE

Question 1. Mr. Hedde, you noted that most of our homes and businesses aren’t 

built to withstand the severe weather we currently experience from time to time, 

much less more extreme events in a changing climate. Is this true for hospitals and 

schools too? 

Answer. It is not possible to make a blanket statement regarding the construction 

quality of our Nation’s schools and hospitals. Engineers are required to incorporate 

safety features based on a building’s primary or intended function. For example, 

ASCE 24–14 is the industry consensus standard for flood resistant design and construction, and uses four building categories to guide engineers on flood design specifications: the first is for accessory buildings (e.g., garages), the second is for residential homes and general commercial buildings, the third is for large gathering places, 

and the forth is for essential service facilities, such as hospitals and fire stations. 

In ASCE 24–14 elementary schools are considered a class three building, unless 

they also serve as a designated emergency shelter, in which case they are considered a class four. The higher the class, the more the building must be elevated and 

flood-proofed. Similarly, seismic loads and design requirements are more robust for 

schools and hospitals. Wind loads are typically increased for schools and hospitals 

either through an importance factor in older versions of codes and standards, or 

through maps with higher design wind speeds in more recent building codes and 

standards. While ASCE 24–14 and other wind and seismic standards have been 

around for decades, not all buildings were historically built to code, while others 

may have been constructed after a code was put into place, but lax enforcement allowed the building to be under-constructed. We have seen numerous examples of 

Hurricanes and Tornadoes causing severe damage to schools and hospitals. As a nation, it is important that infrastructure such as schools and hospitals be constructed 

based on forward looking conditions that might be experienced in the future. 

Question 2.This August will mark 25 years since Hurricane Andrew devastated 

Homestead, Florida. If Hurricane Andrew were to happen in 2017, given our current 

building codes and coastal development patterns, what would the loss be like? 

Answer. Hurricane Andrew was a strong wake up call for the need for stronger 

building codes and practices. More than half of the U.S. population lives in one of 

the Nation’s 673 coastal counties, and values of properties in these coastal regions 

have increased since Hurricane Andrew. If a storm similar to Hurricane Andrew 

would happen in 2017, the resulting damage would be heavily dependent on where 

the storm occurs. While building codes have improved during the years since Hurricane Andrew, building code application and enforcement varies by state, and further 

varies by local community within states. Since Hurricane Andrew, building codes in 

Florida have been greatly improved, and we would expect better building performance for buildings build in Florida’s coastal regions since the post Hurricane Andrew 

building codes were implemented. Unfortunately, the same strengthening has not 

occurred in all coastal regions along our Nation’s coast. Organizations such as IBHS 

(Insurance Institute for Building and Home Safety) have conducted extensive research on building performance, with the ultimate goal to improve building practices 

and products, and better inform the development of stronger building codes. 

Question 3. This August will mark 25 years since Hurricane Andrew devastated 

Homestead, Florida. Are there resources available to homeowners who want to 

strengthen their homes, and have we supported those efforts sufficiently at the Federal level? 

Answer. A number of insurers and reinsurers writing insurance in the United 

States have formed and financially support a non-profit organization dedicated to 

researching and communicating effective measures that can be taken to reduce loss 

to human life, homes, and businesses from natural disasters. IBHS (Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety) conducts critical research that will improve 

building practices, building materials and building codes. Insurers continue to new 

find ways to communicate with policy holders on ways to protect and strengthen 

their homes and businesses. Munich Re has developed The FORTIFIED HomeTM On 

the Go Tablet App. The app has been designed for an iPad, is an interactive tool 

57 

for homeowners, contractors and architects to use when building or retrofitting a 

single-family home to make it a more fortified structure. It includes information 

about the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) FORTIFIED 

HomeTM program which is designed to strengthen homes. The ‘‘app’’ is a ‘‘free’’ app 

available on the iTunes app store. We would ask that all Congressional offices make 

the ‘‘app’’ available to their constituents. 

The Federal Government is exploring several new programs to help prioritize risk 

mitigation spending over disaster response. The FEMA Disaster Deductible is a 

good example of risk sharing and incentivizing mitigation. FEMA is financially supporting a new study to update the often stated statistic that every dollar spent on 

mitigation saves $4 is disaster recovery. The study will be completed by the National Institute for Building Science (NIBS). We feel that the study should be fully 

funded by Congressional appropriators. 

RESPONSE TO WRITTEN QUESTION SUBMITTED BY HON. BILL NELSON TO

DR. JENNIFER L. JURADO

Question. Dr. Jurado, you mentioned that a recent estimate done in partnership 

with the Corps of Engineers suggested that for Broward County to execute a plan 

for resilient seawalls would cost anywhere from $1 billion to $4 billion—and that 

failing to act would be far more costly. How can counties like yours even begin to 

finance such massive capital improvements? 

Answer. Just to clarify, Broward County is in the midst of a study with the Corps 

of Engineers to develop recommended sea wall top elevations needed to deliver flood 

protection with rising seas. The study will formally evaluate the flood protection 

level of service derived with a 2.5 foot increase in sea wall height. Concurrently, 

Broward County is developing cost estimates for collective raising/armoring of the 

350 miles of canal banks and waterways along our shoreline. The final figure will 

depend on the initial condition of the seawall and the construction approach, but 

we estimate the cost to be between $1 billion and $4 billion. This infrastructure upgrade will need to be coupled with additional stormwater improvements and resilient investments as part of development practices, efforts which are already underway. 

Regarding the question of financing, local communities simply can’t do this alone. 

The scale of investment needed far exceeds the resources and bonding capacity of 

individual communities, while the timeline for execution is urgent. A Federal partnership is essential, as has been the case in advancing many of the most sizeable 

infrastructure projects and investments in our nation—investments which have 

served to connect and protect our communities as they exist today, including ports, 

bridges, roadways, waterways, regional flood control systems, and reservoirs. These 

investments provided a foundation for communities, including our coastal communities, to develop and thrive. However, many coastal communities are now exposed 

to new pressures and excessive, unforeseen infrastructure needs, which threaten to 

overwhelm our capabilities. Local sources alone won’t be sufficient, given the costs 

and timeframes involved. We are not punting responsibility; however, we recognize 

that diverse funding sources and alternative funding streams will need to be pursued. Therefore, we desperately need the support of the Federal Government, and 

of our Federal agency partners, including the Corps of Engineers, to undertake the 

large-scale flood protection investments our region needs. These infrastructure upgrades are vital to protect against catastrophic flood damage, service disruptions, 

and threats to public safety. They will deliver a sizeable return on investment, ensuring long-term economic well-being of national consequence, while substantially 

reducing the potential for costly Federal post-disaster assistance often required in 

the aftermath of severe floods and storms. Absent organized investments to address 

our risks, these events will only increase in severity and consequence. 

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