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Renewable Electricity Futures Study

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Renewable Electricity

Futures Study (RE Futures) is an initial investigation of the extent to which

renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the

continental United States over the next several decades. This study

explores the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity

generation levels—from 30% up to 90%, focusing on 80%, of all U.S.

electricity generation—in 2050. At such high levels of renewable electricity

generation, the unique characteristics of some renewable resources,

specifically geographical distribution and variability and uncertainty in

output, pose challenges to the operability of the nation's electric system.

Renewable Electricity Futures Report

Executive Summary

Volume 1: Exploration of High­Penetration Renewable Electricity

Futures (includes Executive Summary)

Volume 2: Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage

Technologies

Volume 3: End­Use Electricity Demand

Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission

Planning

Key Findings

Renewable electricity generation from technologies that are

commercially available today, in combination with a more flexible

electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S.

electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an

hourly basis in every region of the country.

Increased electric system flexibility, needed to enable electricity

supply and demand balance with high levels of renewable generation,

can come from a portfolio of supply­ and demand­side options,

including flexible conventional generation, grid storage, new

transmission, more responsive loads, and changes in power system

operations.

The abundance and diversity of U.S. renewable energy resources can

support multiple combinations of renewable technologies that result

in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and

water use.

The direct incremental cost associated with high renewable

generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean

energy scenarios. Improvement in the cost and performance of

renewable technologies is the most impactful lever for reducing this

incremental cost.

RE Futures provides initial answers to important questions about the

integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a

national perspective, focusing on key technical implications. The study

explores electricity grid integration using models with unprecedented

geographic and time resolution for the contiguous United States to assess

whether the U.S. power system can supply electricity to meet customer

demand on an hourly basis with high levels of renewable electricity,

including variable wind and solar generation.

RE Futures, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, is a

collaboration with more than 110 contributors from 35 organizations including national laboratories, industry,

universities, and non­governmental organizations.

As the most comprehensive analysis of high­penetration renewable electricity of the continental United States

to date, the study can inform broader discussion of the evolution of the electric system and electricity markets

toward clean systems. RE Futures results indicate that renewable generation could play a more significant role

in the U.S. electricity system than previously thought and that further work is warranted to investigate this

clean generation pathway.

Related Journal Articles

Mai, T.; Hand, M. M.; Baldwin, S. F.; Wiser, R. H.; Brinkman, G. L.; Denholm, P.; Arent, D. J.; Porro,

G.; Sandor, D.; Hostick, D. J.; Milligan, M.; DeMeo, E. A.; Bazilian, M. (2014). Renewable Electricity

Futures for the United States. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy. Vol. 5(2), April 2014; pp. 372­

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Publications

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Related Links

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RE Futures Scenario

Viewer

Explore the RE Futures scenarios at a

state­level and download the data.

RE Futures

Visualizations

These visualizations are based on RE

Futures modeling and represent the

transformation of the U.S. electric

system to a high renewable system

from 2010 to 2050 and the hourly

operation and transmission flow of

that system in 2050.

Transformation of the

Electric Sector

(Compare to Baseline Projections)

Hourly Operation in 2050

(Compare to Baseline Projections)

Power Flow in 2050

(Compare to Baseline Projections)

Leading Clean Energy Innovation ABOUT  RESEARCH  WORKING WITH US  CAREERS 
378

Mai, T.; Mulcahy, D.; Hand, M. M.; Baldwin, S. F. (2014). Envisioning a

Renewable Electricity Future for the United States. Energy. Vol. 65, 1

February 2014; pp. 374­386.

Arent, D.; Pless, J.; Mai, T.; Wiser, R.; Hand, M.; Baldwin, S.; Heath, G.;

Macknick, J.; Bazilian, M.; Schlosser, A.; Denholm, P. (2014). Implications

of High Renewable Electricity Penetration in the U.S. for Water Use,

Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Land­Use, and Materials Supply. Applied

Energy. Vol. 123, 15 June 2014; pp. 368­377.

Cochran, J.; Mai, T.; Bazilian, M. (2014). Meta­Analysis of HighPenetration Renewable Energy Scenarios. Renewable and Sustainable

Energy Reviews. Vol. 29, January 2014; pp. 246­253.

Bazilian, M.; Mai, T.; Baldwin, S.; Arent, D.; Miller, M.; Logan, J. (2014).

Decision­Making for High Renewable Electricity Futures in the United

States. Energy Strategy Reviews. Vol. 2(3­4), February 2014; pp. 326­328.

Hostick D.J.; Belzer, D.B.; Hadley, S.W.; Markel, T.; Marnay, C.; and

Kintner­Meyer, M.C.W. (2014). Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050 . PNNL­23491. Pacific Northwest

National Laboratory, Richland, WA.

Bazilian, M.; Detchon, R.; Miller, M.; Liebreich, M.; Blyth, W.; Thompson, G.; Futch, M.; Modi, V.;

Jones, L.; Barkett, B.; Howells, M.; MacGill, I.; Kammen, D. M.; Mai, T.; Wittenstein, M.; Aggarwal, S.;

Weston, R.; O'Malley, M.; Carvallo, J. P.; Arent, D. J. (2013). Accelerating the Global Transformation to

21st Century Power Systems. The Electricity Journal. Vol. 26(6).

Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.; Mai, T.; Brinkman, G.; Drury, E.; Hand, M.; Mowers, M. (2013). Bright

Future: Solar Power as a Major Contributor to the U.S. Grid. IEEE Power and Energy Magazine. Vol.

11(2), March 2013; pp. 22­32.

Modeling and Cost Data

Energy models used in the study:

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

Technology cost and performance assumptions used in scenario analysis:

Black & Veatch report on Cost and Performance Data for Power Generation Technologies –

documents assumptions used for baseline and incremental technology improvement scenarios

Transparent Cost Database/Open Energy Information – includes cost (capital and operating) and

capacity factor assumptions for renewable generation technologies used for baseline, incremental

technology improvement, and evolutionary technology improvement scenarios, along with other

published and DOE program estimates for these technologies

Scenario results:

Renewable Electricity Futures Scenario Viewer ­ Explore RE Futures scenarios at a state­level and

download the data.

RE Futures Volume 1 figure data

Geographical Distribution of Renewable Technology Capacity in 2050

Demands calculation:

High demand baseline

Low demand baseline

RE Futures in the News

National Public Radio's All Things Considered

Slashing Fossil Fuel Consumption Comes With A Price (December 2, 2013)

Wall Street Journal

Six Myths About Renewable Energy: The impact on jobs and other assumptions that don't hold up

anymore (September 22, 2013)

Windpower Engineering & Development

Report explores renewable electricity futures (August 21, 2012)

The Union of Concerned Scientists

U.S. Renewable Electricity Future Is Within Reach (August 8, 2012)

Earth Techling

The Way Forward for Renewable Energy Policy In The US (July 30, 2012)

Worldwatch Institute

The Way Forward for Renewable Energy Policy in the U.S. (July 26, 2012)

Denver Post

Renewable Energy Could Provide 80% of U.S. Electricity ­ But at What Cost (July 9, 2012)

Clean Technica

80% Clean, Renewable Energy by 2050: More Than Possible, But Need More Political Will (&

Public Demand) (July 2, 2012)

Care 2 Make a Difference

Thinking Big: 80 Percent Renewables is Possible by 2050 (June 29, 2012)

EnergyDigital

Renewables Could Supply 80% U.S. Electricity (June 23, 2013)

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Content Last Updated: June 16, 2015

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