NISTIR 7390 

Office of Applied Economics 

Building and Fire Research Laboratory 

Gaithersburg, MD 20899 

U.S. Department of Commerce 

Technology Administration 

National Institute of Standards and Technology

A Guide to Printed and Electronic Resources for 

Developing a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for 

New and Existing Constructed Facilities 

 Robert E. Chapman and Douglas S. Thomas 

NISTIR 7390 

Office of Applied Economics 

Building and Fire Research Laboratory 

Gaithersburg, MD 20899 

U.S. Department of Commerce 

Technology Administration 

National Institute of Standards and Technology

A Guide to Printed and Electronic Resources for 

Developing a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for 

New and Existing Constructed Facilities 

 Robert E. Chapman and Douglas S. Thomas 

Sponsored by: 

National Institute of Standards and Technology 

Building and Fire Research Laboratory 

February 2007

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 

Carlos M. Gutierrez, Secretary 

TECHNOLOGY ADMINISTRATION 

Robert C. Cresanti, Under Secretary for Technology 

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STANDARDS AND TECHNOLOGY 

William A. Jeffrey, Director 

Abstract

Developing a cost-effective risk mitigation plan involves assessing the risks associated 

with natural and man-made hazards, formulating combinations of mitigation strategies 

for constructed facilities exposed to those hazards, and using economic tools to identify 

the most cost-effective combination of strategies. Developing a risk mitigation plan 

requires both guidance and data. Guidance is needed to help owners and managers to 

assess the risks facing their facility. Data about the frequency and consequences of 

natural and man-made hazards are needed when assessing the risks that a particular 

facility faces from these hazards. Estimates of the costs of protection are needed to 

ensure that safeguarding personnel and physical assets and satisfying financial constraints 

are kept in balance. Finally, guidance on the use of economic evaluation methods is 

needed to ensure that the correct method, or combination of methods, is used. Although 

there is a great deal of high-quality information available on risk assessment and risk 

management, natural and man-made hazards, and economic tools, there is no central 

source of data and tools to which the owners and managers of constructed facilities and 

other key decision-makers can turn for help in developing a cost-effective risk mitigation 

plan. This document provides an annotated bibliography of printed and electronic 

resources that serves as that central source of data and tools to help the owners, 

managers, and designers of constructed facilities develop a cost-effective risk mitigation 

plan. 

Keywords 

Building economics; construction; economic analysis; hazards; homeland security; risk 

assessment; terrorism 

v
vi
Preface 

This study was conducted by the Office of Applied Economics in the Building and Fire 

Research Laboratory at the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The study 

provides an annotated bibliography of printed and electronic resources that serves as a 

central source of data and tools to help the owners and managers of new and existing 

constructed facilities develop a cost-effective risk mitigation plan. The intended audience 

is the National Institute of Standards and Technology as well as other government and 

private sector organizations that are concerned with evaluating how to efficiently allocate 

scarce financial resources among security-related investment alternatives. 

Disclaimer 

Certain trade names and company products are mentioned in the text in order to adequately specify the 

technical procedures and equipment used. In no case does such identification imply recommendation or 

endorsement by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, nor does it imply that the products are 

necessarily the best available for the purpose. 

Cover Photographs Credits 

Looking west toward Biloxi from the east shore, many superstructure spans of US-90 Biloxi-Ocean Springs 

bridge were displaced north off their piers due to Hurricane Katrina (photo credit: J. O’Connor, 

Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research). 

vii
viii
Acknowledgements 

The authors wish to thank all those who contributed so many excellent ideas and 

suggestions for this report. They include Dr. William Grosshandler of the Fire Research 

Division in the Building and Fire Research Laboratory (BFRL) at the National Institute 

of Standards and Technology (NIST), manager of BFRL’s Research and Development 

for the Safety of Threatened Buildings Program, for his technical guidance, suggestions, 

and support. Special appreciation is extended to Dr. Harold E. Marshall and Dr. David 

Butry of BFRL’s Office of Applied Economics (OAE) for their thorough reviews and 

many insights and to Ms. Tessa Beavers for her assistance in preparing the manuscript for 

review and publication. Special thanks are due to each of the OAE Technical Working 

Group members—Ms. Janet S. Baum, Health, Education + Research Associates, Inc.; 

Dr. Saul I. Gass and Dr. Howard K. Hung of NIST’s Information Technology 

Laboratory; Mr. Robert N. Harvey, Washington Group Infrastructure Corporation; Mr. 

David Henry, U.S. Department of Commerce; Mr. Muthiah Kasi, Alfred Benesch & 

Company; Ms. Milagros Kennett, Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. 

Department of Homeland Security; Mr. Douglas N. Mitten, Project Management 

Services, Inc.; and Dr. Stephen R. Thomas, Construction Industry Institute—for their 

guidance throughout the development and production of this report. The report has also 

benefited from the review and technical comments provided by Mr. Stephen A. Cauffman 

of BFRL’s Materials and Construction Research Division and Dr. M. Hayden Brown of 

BFRL’s Office of Applied Economics. 

ix
x
Table of Contents 

ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................... V 

PREFACE........................................................................................................................VII 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................. IX 

1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 

1.1 BACKGROUND...................................................................................................... 1 

1.2 PURPOSE .............................................................................................................. 2 

1.3 SCOPE AND APPROACH ........................................................................................ 3 

1.4 ORGANIZATION OF THE ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY .......................................... 5 

2 RISK ASSESSMENT RESOURCES.............................................................................. 7 

2.1 RISK ASSESSMENT GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS ........................................................ 8 

2.2 RISK ASSESSMENT SOFTWARE........................................................................... 15 

2.3 HAZARDS DATA................................................................................................. 20 

2.3.1 Natural Hazards .............................................................................................. 20 

2.3.2 Man-Made Hazards......................................................................................... 27 

3 RISK MANAGEMENT RESOURCES ........................................................................ 33 

3.1 RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS ................................................... 33 

3.2 RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE ........................................................................ 55 

3.3 GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS FOR ESTIMATING COSTS AND LOSSES ......................... 57 

3.3.1 Mitigation Costs.............................................................................................. 57 

3.3.2 Event-Related Losses...................................................................................... 65 

3.4 SOFTWARE FOR ESTIMATING COSTS AND LOSSES.............................................. 71 

4 ECONOMIC EVALUATION GUIDANCE ................................................................. 75 

4.1 ECONOMIC TOOLS.............................................................................................. 76 

4.1.1 Evaluation Methods........................................................................................ 76 

4.1.2 Industry Standards .......................................................................................... 82 

4.1.3 Software for Implementing Industry Standards.............................................. 90 

4.2 ECONOMIC MODELING RESOURCES ................................................................... 91 

4.3 ANALYSIS STRATEGIES FOR TREATING UNCERTAINTY ...................................... 96 

5 SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH.............. 99 

5.1 SUMMARY.......................................................................................................... 99 

5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH ................................................. 99 

APPENDIX A: OVERVIEW OF THE THREE-STEP PROTOCOL FOR DEVELOPING 

A COST-EFFECTIVE RISK MITIGATION PLAN ...................................... 101 

A.1 PERFORM RISK ASSESSMENT ........................................................................... 104 

A.1.1 Establish Risk Mitigation Objectives and Constraints.................................. 105 

A.1.2 Conduct Assessment and Document Findings.............................................. 105 

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A.2 SPECIFY COMBINATIONS OF RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES FOR EVALUATION106 

A.2.1 Review Alternative Risk Mitigation Strategies............................................ 106 

A.2.2 Select Candidate Combinations of Risk Mitigation Strategies..................... 109 

A.2.3 Develop Cost/Loss Estimates and Sequence of Cash Flows for Each 

Candidate Combination ................................................................................ 109 

A.3 PERFORM ECONOMIC EVALUATION ................................................................. 110 

A.3.1 Select Appropriate Economic Method(s) for Evaluating the Candidate 

Combinations of Risk Mitigation Strategies................................................. 111 

A.3.2 Compute Measures of Economic Performance for Each Candidate 

Combination.................................................................................................. 111 

A.3.3 Recompute Measures of Economic Performance Taking into Consideration 

Uncertainty.................................................................................................... 112 

A.3.4 Analyze Results and Identify the Most Cost-Effective Combination of Risk 

Mitigation Strategies..................................................................................... 113 

A.3.5 Prepare Report with Documentation Supporting Recommended Risk 

Mitigation Plan.............................................................................................. 114 

APPENDIX B: CLEARINGHOUSES AND WEB PORTALS..................................... 117 

APPENDIX C: POLICIES, RESEARCH, AND THEORY........................................... 123 

GLOSSARY OF RELATED TERMS............................................................................ 133 

AUTHOR INDEX BY REFERENCE NUMBER.......................................................... 139 

SUBJECT INDEX BY REFERENCE NUMBER.......................................................... 143 

xii
Acronyms and Abbreviations 

AACE Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering 

AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation 

Officials 

ACECenter Assessment of Catastrophic Events Center 

AEO Annual Energy Outlook 

AER Annual Energy Review 

AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process 

AIR Annual Interest Rate 

ALFRED ArchivaL Federal Reserve Economic Database 

ALOFT-FT A Large Outdoor Fire plume Trajectory model - Flat Terrain 

ALOHA Aerial Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres 

AMA American Management Association 

AMMTIAC Advanced Materials, Manufacturing, and Testing Information 

Analysis Center 

AMPTIAC Advanced Materials and Processes Technology Information 

Analysis Center 

ANSI American National Standards Institute 

ANSS Advanced National Seismic System 

ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers 

ASCOS Analysis of Smoke Control Systems 

ASIS American Society for Industrial Security 

ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers 

BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis 

BCR Benefit-to-Cost Ratio 

BEES Building for Environmental and Economic Sustainability 

BFRL Building and Fire Research Laboratory 

BLCC Building Life-Cycle Cost 

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics 

BMSP Blast Mitigation Structures Program 

BTS Bureau of Transport Statistics 

CAD Computer Aided Design 

CARVER Criticality, Accessibility, Recoverability, Vulnerability, Effect, 

and Recognizability 

CATS Consequences Assessment Tool Set 

CBECS Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey 

CBR Chemical Biological and Radiological 

CBS Central Broadcasting System 

CCE Certified Cost Engineer 

CCTV Closed Circuit Television 

CESB Council of Engineering and Scientific Specialty Boards 

CONTAM Contaminant Multizone Modeling Software 

CORE Coastal and Ocean Resource Economics 

CPP Certified Protection Professional 

xiii
CPSC Consumer Product Safety Commission 

CREATE Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events 

CSB Chemical Safety Board 

CSI Construction Specifications Institute 

DARP Damage Assessment and Restoration Program 

DCSINT Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence 

DGN Microstation Design file (file format) 

DHS Department of Homeland Security 

DOD Department of Defense 

DOE Department of Energy 

DOJ Department of Justice 

DOT Department of Transportation 

DTRA Defense Threat Reduction Agency 

DWG AutoCAD drawing (file format) 

ECES Environmental Cost Element Structure 

ECHOS Environmental Cost Handling Options and Solutions 

EERC Energy Escalation Rate Calculator 

EERE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 

EIA Energy Information Administration 

ENR Engineering News Record 

EPA Environmental Protection Agency 

EPP Environmentally Preferable Purchasing 

EqIP Earthquake Information Providers Group 

EQNET EarthQuake Information NETWork 

ESI Estimating Systems Incorporated 

ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute 

FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation 

FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency 

FEMP Federal Energy Management Program 

FHWA Federal Highway Administration 

FIRST FIRe Simulation Technique 

FLASH Federal Alliance for Safe Homes 

FRED Federal Reserve Economic Database 

GAO Government Accountability Office 

GIS Geographic Information System 

GPO Government Printing Office 

GSA General Services Administration 

HAZUS Hazards U.S. 

HAZUS-MH HAZUS Multi-Hazard 

HPAC Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability 

HSDL Homeland Security Digital Library 

HSPD Homeland Security Presidential Directives 

HVAC Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning 

IBHS Institute for Business & Home Safety 

ICBO International Conference of Building Officials 

ICC International Code Council 

xiv
ICE Integrated Computer Engineering 

IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission 

ISBE Infrastructure Security for the Built Environment 

ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 

ITA International Trade Administration 

ITI Innovative Technologies Institute 

ITIC International Tsunami Information Center 

LCC Life Cycle Cost 

MADA Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis 

MAE Mid-America Earthquake Center 

MIPT Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism 

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

NBER National Bureau of Economic Research 

NCDC National Climatic Data Center 

NEHRP National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program 

NEIC National Earthquake Information Center 

NEMA National Emergency Management Association 

NESDIS National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service 

NFIP National Flood Insurance Program 

NFIRS National Fire Incident Reporting System 

NFPA National Fire Protection Association 

NIBS National Institute of Building Sciences 

NIMS National Incident Management System 

NIPP National Infrastructure Protection Plan 

NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology 

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association 

NODC National Oceanographic Data Center 

NSF National Science Foundation 

NWS National Weather Service 

OAE Office of Applied Economics 

OLES Office of Law Enforcement Standards 

OSHA Occupational Safety and Health Administration 

PATH Partnership for Advancing Technology in Housing 

PBS Public Buildings Service 

PCI Professional Certified Investigator 

PDC Pacific Disaster Center 

PERI Public Entity Risk Institute 

PML Probable Maximum Loss 

PSP Physical Security Professional 

PSHA Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 

RAM Risk Assessment Methodology 

RAMCAP Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection 

RAMPART Risk Assessment Method – Property Analysis and Ranking Tool 

from the General Services Administration 

RMS Risk Management Solutions 

ROI Return on Investment 

xv
SBCCI Southern Building Code Congress International, Inc. 

SITC Swiss Insurance Trainee Center 

SL Scenario Loss 

START Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

TCO Total Cost of Ownership 

TISP The Infrastructure Security Partnership 

TRI Toxic Release Inventory 

TSR Tropical Storm Risk 

USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers 

USFA United States Fire Administration 

USGS United States Geological Survey 

UTL Universal Task List 

VA Value Analysis 

VAPO Vulnerability Assessment and Protection Option 

ZIP Zone Improvement Plan 

xvi
1 Introduction 

1.1 Background 

The September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and the 

subsequent dispersion of anthrax through the postal system, changed the way many in the 

United States approach security and safety. These events have prompted the owners and 

managers of constructed facilities—buildings, industrial facilities, and other physical 

infrastructure—to address terrorist risks and protect the occupants, property, and 

functions of their facilities. 

The devastation to the Gulf Coast caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and their 

impact on the national economy, underscored the need to plan for natural and man-made 

disasters as well as terrorist threats. Each year, natural and man-made disasters cause on 

average an estimated $52 billion in damages in the United States in terms of lives lost, 

disruption of commerce, properties destroyed, and the costs of mobilizing emergency 

response personnel and equipment.1

 It is important, however, to note that a single major 

disaster, such as Hurricane Katrina, can result in damages in the United States that greatly 

exceed that average figure. 

These realities have led to changes in how key decision-makers respond to natural and 

man-made hazards. Among these changes are the way owners and managers think about 

the design, location, construction, operation, and renovation of constructed facilities. The 

range of responses available to decision-makers is extensive, as is the potential expense. 

Parallel to the reality of the risks posed by natural and man-made hazards is the reality of 

budget constraints. Owners and managers of constructed facilities are confronted with 

the challenge of planning for and responding to natural and man-made hazards in a 

financially responsible manner. The two objectives—safeguarding personnel and 

physical assets and satisfying financial constraints—must be balanced through a costeffective risk mitigation plan. 

Emerging from this new focus on planning is the realization that it makes sense to 

evaluate all kinds of natural and man-made hazards as a group. Costs for protection 

against multiple hazards can be shared among the hazards protected against, thereby 

reducing the cost of any single form of protection. Or, looked at in another way, a given 

cost of protection can yield extra benefits when considering multiple hazards. This 

spillover of benefits from one kind of protection to another highlights the need for a 

holistic approach to planning protection against multiple hazards. 

 

1 National Science and Technology Council, Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources, Subcommittee on 

Disaster Reduction, Grand Challenges for Disaster Reduction, June 2005, p. 3.

1
In two earlier studies,2, 3

 the Office of Applied Economics (OAE) in the Building and 

Fire Research Laboratory (BFRL) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology 

outlined a three-step protocol for developing a cost-effective risk mitigation plan. The 

protocol has been revised and expanded to meet the need for a holistic approach to 

planning protection against multiple hazards. In January 2006, the protocol was 

submitted to ASTM International for promulgation as a Standard Guide for Developing a 

Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan; it was approved by ASTM and released as Standard 

Guide E2506 in October 2006.4 The three-step protocol described in Standard Guide 

E2506 helps decision-makers (1) assess the likelihood that their facility and its contents 

will be damaged from natural and man-made hazards; (2) identify engineering, 

management, and financial strategies for abating the risk of damages; and (3) use 

standardized economic evaluation methods to select the most cost-effective combination 

of risk mitigation strategies to protect their facility. The three-step protocol is the basis 

for our approach in this report. Appendix A provides an overview of the protocol and 

links the steps in the protocol to the three main chapters in this report. 

Developing a cost-effective risk mitigation plan requires both guidance and data. 

Guidance is needed to help owners and managers to assess the risks facing their facility 

or collection of facilities. Data about the frequency and consequences of natural and 

man-made hazards are needed when assessing the risks that a particular facility faces 

from these hazards. Estimates of the costs of protection are needed to ensure that 

safeguarding personnel and physical assets and satisfying financial constraints are kept in 

balance. Finally, guidance on the use of economic evaluation methods is needed to 

ensure that the correct method, or combination of methods, is used. 

1.2 Purpose 

Research by the authors has shown that, although there is a great deal of high-quality 

information available on risk assessment and risk management, natural and man-made 

hazards, and methods for measuring economic performance, there is no central source of 

data and tools to which the owners and managers of constructed facilities and other key 

decision-makers can turn for help in developing a cost-effective risk mitigation plan. The 

purpose of this document is to provide an annotated bibliography of printed and 

electronic resources that serves as that central source of data and tools to help readers 

develop a cost-effective risk mitigation plan. 

This report is being published both as a printed document and as a web-based publication 

to facilitate its widespread use. It is intended as a ready reference for researchers, public 

and private sector decision-makers, and practitioners—owners and managers of 

 

2

 Chapman, Robert E. and Leng, Chi J. Cost-Effective Responses to Terrorist Risks in Constructed 

Facilities, NISTIR 7073 (Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, March 2004). 3

 Marshall, Harold E., Chapman, Robert E., and Leng, Chi J. “Risk Mitigation Plan for Optimizing 

Protection of Constructed Facilities,” Cost Engineering, Vol. 46, No. 8, August 2004, pp. 26-33. 4

 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Developing a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for New and 

Exixting Constructed Facilities,” E2506. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2007. Vol.4.12. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

2
constructed facilities, architects, engineers, constructors, and other providers of 

professional services for constructed facilities—concerned with cost-effective responses 

to natural and man-made hazards. It is also intended for practitioners interested in 

formulating and evaluating alternative combinations of risk mitigation strategies. 

The key difference between the two publication media is that the printed document is 

index-based. The Subject Index and Author Index point the reader to key reference 

documents, databases, and software tools that will help them develop a cost-effective risk 

mitigation plan. In the web-based version posted on the BFRL web site, all web links are 

active, enabling practitioners to browse documents and data sources. Furthermore, many 

of the web links permit documents and data files to be downloaded for future reference 

and use. Given that new security-related materials are being published on a regular basis, 

this report (both printed and web-based) is planned for periodic revision to capture new 

source documents and web links. 

1.3 Scope and Approach 

This report covers in a limited manner the key steps for developing a cost-effective risk 

mitigation plan. The primary emphasis in the report, however, is placed on summarizing 

key reference documents and data sources. Our intent is to provide readers with 

sufficient guidance that they can readily access documents, databases, and other key 

information resources in support of their efforts to develop a cost-effective risk mitigation 

plan for addressing multiple hazards. The document establishes a framework for 

developing a cost-effective risk mitigation plan in which each component complements 

and reinforces the others. 

Because constructed facilities face a wide range of hazards—both natural and manmade—this report identifies information resources for each type of hazard. A major 

emphasis is placed on providing information on five natural hazards—earthquakes, 

hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, and coastal and river flooding—and three man-made 

hazards—terrorism, other criminal acts, and chemical accidents. A limited amount of 

information on three additional natural hazards—volcanic eruptions, landslides, and 

tsunamis—is also provided. 

This report contains four chapters and three appendices in addition to the Introduction. 

Chapters 2 through 4, the major contributions of this report, provide background 

information and an annotated bibliography covering major reference and guidance 

documents and data sources that will help the reader formulate a cost-effective risk 

mitigation plan. The background and annotated bibliography sections of each chapter are 

designed to give readers a good grounding in each section’s topic and reference material. 

Our goal is to give the reader enough guidance and reference material that they can 

quickly form an action plan for developing cost-effective responses to multiple hazards. 

Chapter 2 provides references to risk assessment resources. The chapter is divided into 

three sections. Section 2.1 focuses on risk assessment guidance documents. The 

emphasis in Section 2.1 is on establishing a technical foundation for conducting a risk 

3
assessment and identifying key resource documents that provide guidance on how to 

conduct a multi-hazard risk assessment. Section 2.2 focuses on risk assessment software. 

Software tools are included because they are of great value in compiling, organizing, and 

evaluating information and data needed to conduct the risk assessment. Section 2.3 

covers sources of hazards data; it is divided into two subsections: natural hazards and 

man-made hazards. Each subsection provides descriptive material covering key data 

sources. Our intent is to provide readers with sufficient background information that they 

can decide where to go to get additional data to support their risk assessment evaluations. 

Chapter 3 provides references to risk management resources. The chapter is divided into 

four sections. Section 3.1 focuses on risk management guidance documents. The 

emphasis in Section 3.1 is on establishing a technical foundation for formulating 

combinations of risk mitigation strategies that address the hazards identified in the risk 

assessment and identifying key resource documents that provide guidance on how to 

formulate multi-hazard risk mitigation strategies. Section 3.2 focuses on risk 

management software. Software tools are included because they are of great value in 

compiling, organizing, and evaluating information and data needed to formulate 

alternative combinations of risk mitigation strategies. Section 3.3 covers guidance 

documents for cost-related issues; it is divided into two subsections: mitigation costs and 

event-related losses. Section 3.4 covers software tools that are useful in developing 

estimates of mitigation costs and event-related losses. 

Chapter 4 provides references on how to conduct an economic evaluation. Section 4.1 

provides an overview of economic tools. Economic tools include evaluation methods, 

standards that support and guide the use of those methods, and software for implementing 

the evaluation methods. The section also includes a discussion of how to choose the 

appropriate economic evaluation method or a combination of evaluation methods. 

Section 4.2 focuses on empirical considerations. Section 4.2 focuses on assumptions, the 

key parameters that define the project (e.g., purpose of the project, length of the study 

period, and discount rate), and the specification of alternative combinations of risk 

mitigation strategies. Section 4.3 describes an approach to help analysts treat uncertainty. 

Chapter 5 concludes with a summary and a discussion of areas of need for future 

research. 

Appendix A provides an overview of the three-step protocol. We provide the reader with 

an explanation of the three-step protocol to establish guiding principles for more 

effectively using the annotated bibliography presented in Chapters 2 through 4 to develop 

a cost-effective risk mitigation plan. 

Appendix B provides links to clearinghouses and web portals where additional 

descriptive material and links to risk assessment/risk management guidance documents 

and software tools are provided. 

Appendix C contains reference material on disaster-related policies and research. 

Summaries of theoretical studies on risk perception, the impacts of terrorism on the 

4
national economy, the challenge of quantifying terrorism risk for the insurance market, 

and other selected theoretical issues are provided. 

1.4 Organization of the Annotated Bibliography 

The annotated bibliography presented in Chapters 2 through 4 constitutes the majority of 

this report. Bibliographic references are provided within each section/subsection of 

Chapters 2 through 4. References are listed in alphabetical order by author, where the 

author may be a person, a company, an organization, or a government entity. Each 

reference is numbered sequentially and tied uniquely to the section/subsection in which it 

appears. A URL is provided whenever a reference is available in electronic format.5

 We 

have prepared an abstract for each reference that summarizes the salient points of the 

reference. In preparing each abstract, we examined each reference to better link it into 

the annotated bibliography. We believe this approach will help users find the materials 

they need to develop a cost-effective risk mitigation plan. 

It is important to note that a reference may be relevant for more than one section/ 

subsection. To minimize duplication within this document, whenever a reference is 

relevant for more than one section/subsection, we provide the abstract in the most 

relevant section. All other listings of that reference refer the reader to the unique 

reference number of the section/subsection where the abstract appears. Several 

references are linked to other references. In these cases, the unique reference number for 

the linked reference is given in the abstract. 

This document also contains an Author Index and a Subject Index. The Author Index is 

based on the first line of the reference, where the author is listed (e.g., American Society 

for Industrial Security). Each reference associated with that author is then listed. For 

example, one reference for the American Society for Industrial Security is 2.1.1. Turning 

to that reference, you will find the abstract and a link to an electronic version of the 

General Security Risk Assessment Guideline. 

The Subject Index is organized as a two-tiered hierarchy. Each reference is classified 

using keywords drawn from the Subject Index. Elements in the first tier, such as 

Security, are listed first. Elements in the second tier are indented beneath the first tier 

element. References may be listed with a first tier element or with a second tier element. 

For example, Reference 2.1.1 is listed with the first tier element Security. 

Several subjects refer you to another subject. These cases are highlighted with an italics

font. For example, the generic term Mitigation instructs you to See Individual Hazards. 

Individual Hazards include but are not limited to Earthquakes, Floods, and Hurricanes. 

 

5

 In most cases, references are available for free as downloads. In other cases, the URL provides 

information on how to purchase the reference. 

5
6
2 Risk Assessment Resources 

The first step in creating a cost-effective risk mitigation plan is a risk assessment for the 

facility or group of facilities to be protected. The risk assessment step is critical in 

generating the information needed to formulate the alternative combinations of risk 

mitigations strategies. 

The risk assessment step includes specification of the decision-maker’s objectives, the 

facilities to be protected, the natural and man-made hazards to be considered, the 

composition of the risk assessment team, and documentation procedures. The risk 

assessment involves data collection to establish the likelihood of natural and man-made 

hazards as well as the on-site collection and documentation of facility vulnerabilities to 

those hazards. Estimates of the value of the facility’s assets and the consequences of an 

event occurring are also produced as part of the risk assessment. 

Section 2.1 covers risk assessment guidance documents. The emphasis in Section 2.1 is 

on establishing a technical foundation for conducting a risk assessment and identifying 

key resource documents that provide guidance on how to conduct a multi-hazard risk 

assessment. Documents abstracted include a series of FEMA How-to Guides, as well as 

professional society publications from ASCE, ASIS, ASME, ASTM, and NFPA. 

Section 2.2 covers risk assessment software. Coverage of software tools focuses on their 

value in compiling, organizing, and evaluating information and data needed to conduct 

the risk assessment. Software tools from both the public and private sectors are 

abstracted. Public sector tools include HAZUS-MH, which covers earthquakes, wind, 

and floods, and the Risk Assessment Database, which can be used for both natural and 

man-made hazards; both software tools were developed with funding from FEMA. 

Private sector tools cover a wide variety of hazards (natural and man-made), simulationmodeling capabilities useful in performing a probabilistic risk assessment, and the use of 

geographical information system (GIS) products. 

Section 2.3 covers sources of hazards data; it is divided into two subsections: natural 

hazards and man-made hazards. Each subsection provides descriptive material covering 

key data sources. Historical patterns of natural disasters indicate which areas are more 

prone to these specific hazards in the future. The Federal Government maintains a wide 

variety of hazard-specific databases covering earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, 

and wildfires. Significant Federal Government resources abstracted include databases 

maintained by FEMA, NASA, NOAA, NWS, and the USGS. Databases covering manmade hazards include detailed information on crime and environmental disasters. 

Information on terrorism is also presented. Non-federal data sources covering both 

natural and man-made hazards include NFPA, the insurance industry, and a number of 

private sector organizations. The goal of the abstracted data sources is to provide readers 

with sufficient background information that they can decide where to go to get additional 

data to support their risk assessment evaluations. 

7
2.1 Risk Assessment Guidance Documents 

2.1.1 American Society for Industrial Security. General Security Risk Assessment 

Guideline. Alexandria, VA: ASIS International, 2003. 

URL: http://www.asisonline.org/guidelines/guidelinesgsra.pdf 

This ASIS publication provides a method to identify security risks at a specific location 

using a seven-step process: (1) Understand the organization and identify the people and 

assets at risk; (2) Specify loss risk events/vulnerabilities; (3) Establish the probability of 

loss risk and frequency of events; (4) Determine the impact of the event; (5) Develop 

options to mitigate risks; (6) Study the feasibility of implementation of options; and (7) 

Perform a cost/benefit analysis. Each step is detailed in the publication. It also defines 

key terms, designates guidelines, and provides information sources.

2.1.2 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for the Estimation of Building 

Damageability in Earthquakes.” E 2026. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.12.West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

This guide presents specific approaches to estimate “probable maximum loss” (PML), 

scenario loss (SL), and establishes a commercial standard for studying expected loss in 

the event of an earthquake. It discusses loss estimation, probability, seismic risk, 

computer assessment tools, and building stability. It is intended to be used by the real 

estate and technical communities to evaluate the vulnerability of buildings in an 

earthquake. 

2.1.3 American Society of Civil Engineers. Seismic Evaluation of Existing 

Buildings. SEI/ASCE 31-03. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil 

Engineers, 2003. 

This standard provides a “three-tiered process” to evaluate a building’s performance in 

the event of seismic activity. It is intended to replace FEMA 310, “Handbook for the 

Seismic Evaluation of Buildings,” and be used by design professionals, code officials, 

and building owners. It is compatible with FEMA 356, “Pre-standard and Commentary 

for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings.” 

2.1.4 American Society of Mechanical Engineers. Risk Analysis and Management 

for Critical Asset Protection for Terrorist Threats and Homeland Security. 

Washington DC: ASME-ITI, 2005. 

URL: http://www.asme-iti.org/RAMCAP/RAMCAP.cfm 

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Innovative Technologies 

Institute (ITI), through funding from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), has 

launched the Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) 

project. In 2005, ASME-ITI published a guidance document on assessing the risk 

associated with terrorist threats. The goal of this document is to inform resource 

8
allocation decisions for the protection of critical infrastructure. Although the focus is on 

terrorist threats, the ASME-ITI guidance document provides a framework suitable for 

addressing other types of man-made hazards as well as natural hazards. Specifically, the 

document provides a review of the existing approaches to assessing risk, highlights the 

common terminology and basis for reporting results, and presents recommended 

methodology and best practices.

2.1.5 Deisler, Paul F., Jr. “A Perspective: Risk Analysis as a Tool for Reducing the 

Risks of Terrorism.” Risk Analysis. 22 (2002): 405-413. 

This article discusses the extent that risk analysis can be used to address the issue of 

terrorism. Each incident of terrorism has unique characteristics, but they also have 

common traits. This article is part of a collection of works discussed in reference 

3.3.2.18.

2.1.6 Federal Emergency Management Agency. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/ 

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is part of the Department of 

Homeland Security and is the primary organization responsible for mitigating, preparing, 

and responding to major disasters in the United States. FEMA provides a free hazard 

identification program called HAZUS, which is a useful tool to estimate natural hazard 

losses before and after a disaster. FEMA also provides online hazard mapping, which is 

searchable by location (address or latitude and longitude) and the type of hazard (e.g., 

hurricane or tornado). Access to historic disaster maps, statistical information, and 

disaster statistics is available on the FEMA website and is free to the public. The National 

Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is managed by FEMA and was established to identify 

and reduce the increasing costs of flood damage (http://www.floodsmart.gov). Flood 

insurance maps and flood insurance study reports organized by area are available both on 

hard copy and digital media through NFIP. Flood statistics are available online through 

the NFIP at http://www.fema.gov/business/nfip/statistics/pcstat.shtm. For fire statistics 

visit the United States Fire Administration (USFA). It is organized through FEMA with 

the purpose of minimizing damage and suffering caused by fire disasters 

(http://www.usfa.fema.gov/). FEMA’s website contains information on the following 

topics: dam failure, earthquakes, fires, floods, hazardous materials, chemicals, heat, 

hurricanes, landslides, nuclear issues, terrorism, thunderstorms, tornados, tsunamis, and 

general hazards. 

2.1.7 Federal Emergency Management Agency. “Mitigation Planning Resources.” 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/mitplanning/planning_resources.shtm 

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has developed a series of 

guidance manuals to assist state and local communities in planning for risk mitigation. 

These manuals address the need for risk assessment for a variety of hazards. They 

describe the processes of identifying hazards, identifying and developing mitigation 

strategies, implementing risk mitigation plans, and applying these processes to man-made 

9
hazards. All of the FEMA guidance manuals are designed to be used at the community 

level rather than at the level of individual businesses or buildings. But building owners 

and managers may benefit from increased awareness of local hazards and the types of 

personnel and expertise that FEMA recommends, particularly if they undertake risk 

mitigation in a coordinated fashion with local emergency responders. 

2.1.8 Federal Emergency Management Agency. How-to Guide: Using HAZUS-MH 

for Risk Assessment. FEMA 433. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, August 2004. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/rmsp433.shtm 

This How-to Guide aids users of HAZUS-MH (see reference 2.2.7 on page 16) in 

preparing sound risk assessments. It is targeted toward those who have some familiarity 

with the HAZUS-MH software and is interested in using the software to support risk 

assessment studies. There are five steps in this guide: (1) Identify Hazards; (2) Profile 

Hazards; (3) Inventory Assets; (4) Estimate Losses; and (5) Consider Mitigation Options. 

This text takes the reader through the complete process of risk assessment using HAZUSMH. 

2.1.9 Federal Emergency Management Agency. How-to Guide #1: Getting Started: 

Building Support for Mitigation Planning. FEMA 386-1. Washington, DC: 

Federal Emergency Management Agency, September 2002. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/mitplanning/howto1.shtm

FEMA How to Guide #1: Getting Started: Building Support for Mitigation Planning 

directs public and private organizations in the initial mitigation planning stages. This 

how-to guide proposes a three-step process for the initial planning stage. Step one is to 

assess community support. For this step the guide provides methods of identifying 

knowledge, support, and resources available to the area. Step two consists of building a 

planning team. It is an overview of appointing individuals who will be responsible for 

seeing the planning process through. The final step is to engage the public. The guide 

assists in identifying stakeholders, organizing public participation, and bringing public 

feedback. 

2.1.10 Federal Emergency Management Agency. How-to Guide #2: Understanding 

Your Risks. FEMA 386-2. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency Management 

Agency, September 2002. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/mitplanning/howto2.shtm 

FEMA How-To Guide #2: Understanding Your Risks addresses natural hazards and 

offers descriptions of the risk assessment process that can be generalized to other types of 

hazards. The four-step process consists of: (1) identifying the hazards; (2) profiling the 

hazard events to determine magnitudes and pinpoint more specific asset vulnerabilities; 

(3) inventorying assets; and (4) estimating losses. Guide #2 is very helpful in identifying 

the risks of a specific geographic area. It identifies sources of information, methods of 

evaluation, asset inventory processes, and loss estimation methods. 

10
2.1.11 Federal Emergency Management Agency. How-to Guide #3: Developing the 

Mitigation Plan. FEMA 386-3. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, September 2002. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/mitplanning/howto3.shtm 

How-To Guide #3: Developing the Mitigation Plan provides state and local decisionmakers with the tools to identify mitigation objectives and strategies. It provides a fourstep process to reduce or eliminate the loss of life and property in the event of a disaster. 

Step one is to develop mitigation goals and objectives. For this step, the guide provides a 

general overview of goals and objectives to risk mitigation. Step two is to identify and 

prioritize mitigation actions. The third step is to prepare an implementation strategy. It 

provides methods to implement the actions identified in step two. The final step is to 

document the mitigation planning process, which is detailed in the guide. 

2.1.12 Federal Emergency Management Agency. How-to Guide #4: Bringing the 

Plan to Life. FEMA 386-4. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, September 2002. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/mitplanning/howto4.shtm 

How-To Guide #4: Bringing the Plan to Life describes the steps that planners can take to 

implement the strategies, which were identified in How-To Guide #3, to accomplish the 

stated risk mitigation objectives. This process includes four steps: (1) adopt the 

mitigation plan; (2) implement the plan recommendations; (3) evaluate your planning 

results; (4) and revise the plan. Guide #4 contains the implementation process that 

identifies the necessary actions to establish and maintain an effective risk reduction plan. 

2.1.13 Federal Emergency Management Agency. How-to Guide #6: Integrating 

Historic Property and Cultural Resource Considerations into Hazard 

Mitigation Planning. FEMA 386-6. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, September 2002. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/mitplanning/howto6.shtm 

How-To Guide #6: Integrating Historic Property and Cultural Resource Considerations 

into Hazard Mitigation Planning addresses the preservation of historic sites and artifacts 

in the event of a disaster. Since historic sites and artifacts are irreplaceable and are many 

times an integral part of the community and economy, it is important to consider their 

loss or possible damage in the event of a disaster. How-to Guide #6 proposes a fourphase process to evaluate the risk to these cultural resources. The first phase, Organize 

Resources, consists of assessing community support, building a planning team, and 

engaging the public. Phase two, Assess Risks, is comprised of four steps: identify 

hazards, profile hazard events, inventory assets, and estimate losses. The third phase, 

Develop a Mitigation Plan, identifies mitigation actions and implementation strategies for 

protecting identified historic property. The final phase is to implement the plan, which 

consists of a five-step process. 

11
2.1.14 Federal Emergency Management Agency. How-to Guide #7: Integrating 

Manmade Hazards. FEMA 386-7. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, September 2002. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/mitplanning/howto7.shtm 

How-To Guide #7: Integrating Manmade Hazards directly relates to terrorism and 

“technological disasters.” Because of the attack on the World Trade Center, the 

Okalahoma City bombing, and other terrorist attacks the importance of preparing for a 

manmade disaster has become a more serious component of risk mitigation. Guide #7 

proposes a four-phase approach to mitigate manmade hazards. The first phase, organize 

resources, pulls resources together to get a mitigation plan off the ground. Phase 2 of 

Guide #7, assess risk, involves identifying hazards and estimating the possible loss in the 

event of a disaster. Developing goals, prioritizing actions, preparing the strategy, and 

documenting the process are outlined in phase three, which is to develop a mitigation 

plan. The final phase is to implement the plan. The four phases of How-To Guide #7 help 

reduce the vulnerability to future attacks. 

2.1.15 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Risk Management Series 

Publications. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm

See reference Appendix B:7 (page 119) and the Risk Management Series Publications

that follow it 

2.1.16 Hahn, Robert W., and Anne Layne-Farrar. The Law and Economics of 

Software Security. Working Paper 06-08. Joint Center: AEI-Brookings Joint 

Center for Regulatory Studies, April 2006. 

URL: http://aei-brookings.org/admin/authorpdfs/page.php?id=1266 

This working paper is to be printed in the Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy. It 

provides an assessment of software security issues using a framework based on law and 

economics and discusses the current challenges of software security. 

2.1.17 Kunreuther, Howard, Robert Meyer, and Christophe Van den Bulte. Risk 

Analysis for Extreme Events: Economic Incentives for Reducing Future 

Losses. NIST GCR 04-871. Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of 

Standards and Technology, October 2004. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/publications/gcrs/04871.pdf

This NIST publication discusses risk assessment, risk perception, and risk management in 

relation to developing a strategy to deal with disasters. It details the difference between 

calculated risk and risk perception along with individual decision processes. Moreover, in 

this publication risk management is a key topic that addresses how mitigation, insurance, 

and building codes can reduce losses and provide funds for recovery. Three organizations 

provided information and research as part of this publication: RMS (see reference 2.1.22

12
on page 14), EQECAT (see reference 3.2.7 on page 57), and AIR (see reference 2.2.2 on 

page 15). RMS and EQECAT provided information to analyze earthquake mitigation, 

while AIR provided information to analyze hurricane hazards. 

2.1.18 Leson, Joel. Assessing and Managing the Terrorism Threat. NCJ 210680 

Washington DC: Bureau of Justice Assistance, September 2005. 

URL: http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/bja/210680.pdf 

This publication of the Department of Justice outlines the components of risk assessment 

and management of terrorist threats. The process includes six assessments: critical 

infrastructure and key asset inventory, criticality assessment, threat assessment, 

vulnerability assessment, risk calculation, and countermeasure identification. This 

publication discusses each process and gives a relative scale to measure them. 

2.1.19 National Fire Protection Association. Extreme Event Mitigation in Buildings. 

Quincy, MA: National Fire Protection Association, 2006. 

URL: http://www.nfpa.org 

This text provides guidance on designing and assessing buildings for performance and 

safety as it relates to natural and man-made disasters. It discusses evacuations, 

consequences, chemical and biological threats, and design strategies. Extreme Event 

Mitigation in Buildings is available for purchase from the National Fire Protection 

Association. 

2.1.20 Public Entity Risk Institute. 

URL: http://www.riskinstitute.org/ 

The Public Entity Risk Institute (PERI) is a not-for-profit organization founded in 1996 

that disseminates risk management information to small public and private organizations. 

PERI is currently building a database of loss information, provides training in risk 

management, and is developing a metric for performance measurement. 

2.1.21 RAND Corporation. 

URL: http://www.rand.org/ 

RAND Corporation is a private nonprofit organization that conducts research on issues 

that concern society and government. These issues include the arts, child policy, civil 

justice, education, energy, health care, national security, terrorism, population, public 

safety, substance abuse, transportation, and the workforce. Much of the research at 

RAND is published in the RAND Review. A brief article in its fall 2005 issue discusses 

the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, which was passed after the events of September 11. 

RAND has also been working with the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for 

the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) in building a database of terrorism incidents to help 

researchers, analysts, and others to prevent terrorism 

(http://www.rand.org/ise/projects/terrorismdatabase/index.html). This project includes the 

MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base (http://www.tkb.org/Home.jsp), which has two 

13
databases: the RAND Terrorism Chronology Database and the RAND-MIPT Terrorism 

Incident Database. The former records international terrorist incidents that occurred 

between 1968 and 1997. The latter records domestic and international terrorist incidents 

occurring from 1998 to the present. The website includes a great deal of information 

about groups, incidents, cases, leaders, countries and other issues. See MIPT in reference 

3.3.2.11 

2.1.22 Risk Management Solutions Incorporated. 

URL: http://www.rms.com/ 

Risk Management Solutions (RMS) provides products and services for quantifying and 

managing catastrophe risks. RMS conducts many types of risk modeling research: natural 

hazard, terrorism, weather, and enterprise risk. RMS produced its second version of RMS 

U.S. Terrorism Risk Model, which is a risk model for man-made disasters related to 

terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. Many of the models developed at RMS are 

used in the insurance market. A number of their publications are available free to the 

public, but some of their online services are password protected. 

2.1.23 Swiss Re. May 8, 2006. 

URL: http://www.swissre.com/

See reference 3.3.2.22 (page 69) 

2.1.24 Willis, Henry H., Andrew R. Morral, Terrence K. Kelly, and Jamison Jo 

Medby. Estimating Terrorism Risk. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 

2005. 

URL: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG388.pdf 

This RAND publication reports on research conducted on the risk of terrorism. It 

discusses risk assessment, uncertainty, resource allocation, risk estimation, risk 

indicators, population based metrics, simulation models, event-based models, and 

aggregated risk estimators as they relate to terrorism. This document is available free to 

the public through the RAND Corporation (see reference 2.1.21 on page 13). 

2.1.25 Woo, Gordon. “The Evolution of Terrorism Risk Modeling.” Journal of 

Reinsurance. April 22, 2003. 

URL: http://www.rms.com/Publications/EvolutionTerRiskMod_Woo_JournalRe.pdf 

This article briefly discusses the different methods that have been used to model 

terrorism risk; it includes the deterministic scenario loss model, expert judgment, and 

terrorist target selection. This article explores basic philosophies in a non-technical 

manner. 

14
2.1.26 Woo, Gordon. “Understanding Terrorism Risk.” Risk Management 

Solutions. 2004. 

URL: http://www.rms.com/Publications/UnderstandTerRisk_Woo_RiskReport04.pdf 

This article published through Risk Management Solutions (see reference 2.1.22 on page 

14) discusses quantitative approaches to understanding terrorism. It discusses terrorist 

trends, the use of game theory, steps to construct a risk curve, and terrorism insurance. 

2.2 Risk Assessment Software 

2.2.1 Air Dispersion Modeling Incorporated. 

URL: http://www.air-dispersion-model.com/ 

Air Dispersion Modeling offers several air dispersion software programs; two programs 

have been used for research by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): 

CALPUFF and CALRoads. CALPUFF combines GIS and 3D models to create a 

complete outdoor air dispersion model. It has been used to model air quality scenarios 

related to toxic pollutant deposition, forest fire impacts, and visibility assessments. 

CALRoads is used to predict air quality impacts of pollutants near roadways. Air 

Dispersion has also developed an accidental toxic gas release model, SLAB View. It 

models releases from four types of sources: ground-level evaporating pool, elevated 

horizontal jet, elevated vertical jet, and ground-based instantaneous release. These 

software products are available for purchase on Air Dispersion Modeling Incorporated 

website. 

2.2.2 AIR. 

URL: http://www.air-worldwide.com 

AIR provides analytical tools and software systems to manage natural and man-made 

disaster risks. Their products are primarily intended for insurers, reinsurers, and risk 

managers. The AIR Terrorism Loss Estimation Model estimates property and workers’ 

compensation losses from a possible terrorist attack. Due to the uncertainty of terrorist 

attacks, AIR utilized the Delphi Method in order to develop estimates of frequency, 

location, and severity of potential future attacks. AIRWeather is a software product that 

AIR developed in order to quantify risk of natural disasters. It provides updated weather 

data for the weather risk management market. AIR also develops risk management 

software, decision-making software, and other risk-related software that is available for 

purchase on their website. 

2.2.3 Asvaco. 

URL: http://www.asvaco.com/ 

Asvaco provides vulnerability assessment software that creates reports and is compatible 

with Autodesk, a 2D and 3D software product. Asvaco incorporates all the benefits of the 

CARVER methodology. CARVER is the acronym of the following set of evaluation 

criteria: criticality, accessibility, recoverability, vulnerability, effect, and recognizability. 

15
It is used by the Department of Defense, the intelligence community, and the Department 

of Homeland Security (see reference in Appendix C:5). 

2.2.4 Decisioneering. Crystal Ball. 

URL: http://www.decisioneering.com/ 

Although Crystal Ball is not customized as a disaster mitigation program, its features are 

suitable for performing a probabilistic risk assessment. It is a software package that 

performs Monte Carlo simulations within the user’s spreadsheets. It calculates numerous 

“what if” cases for individual scenarios and provides a range of possible outcomes and 

their probability. Decisioneering offers a free 7 day trial version of Crystal Ball on their 

website. 

2.2.5 Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). Vulnerability Assessment and 

Protection Option (VAPO). 

URL: https://acecenter.cnttr.dtra.mil/acecenter/_login.cfm 

Vulnerability Assessment and Protection Option (VAPO) is a software program 

developed by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to assess a multi-facility 

site for threats (i.e., chemical, biological, vehicle ramming, and explosives). It predicts 

internal and external damage to buildings and equipment along with personal injury and 

deaths. VAPO provides a geographic information system (GIS) interface for importing 

and manipulating data and is integrated with HPAC (see reference 3.2.6 on page 56). 

Structural modeling is quickly done with point-and-click features. For detailed analyses, 

DTRA offers training courses for this software through the Assessment of Catastrophic 

Events Center (ACECenter) and provides the software to researchers and government 

employees without cost. 

2.2.6 ESRI. 

URL: http://www.esri.com/

ESRI is a private company that provides GIS products, maps, and software for private 

and public use. In conjunction with FEMA, ESRI has made available quality multihazard maps and information that are searchable online by city and type of hazard 

(http://www.esri.com/hazards/). It has links to FEMA’s HAZUS software for hazard 

analysis and developed an advanced software program, ArcGIS, which is used to create 

geographic maps. ArcGIS must be installed on a computer in order to use HAZUS (see 

reference 2.2.7 on page 16) and CATS (see reference 3.2.6 on page 56). A free one 

month evaluation version of ArcGIS is available from ESRI and FEMA. 

2.2.7 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Hazards U.S. (HAZUS). 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/index.shtm 

Hazards U.S. (HAZUS) is a software tool designed to provide individuals, businesses, 

and communities with information and tools to mitigate natural hazards. HAZUS is a 

natural hazard loss estimation software program developed by the National Institute of 

16
Building Sciences (NIBS) with funding from FEMA. It allows users to compute 

estimates of damage and losses from natural hazards using geographical information 

systems (GIS) technology. Originally designed to address earthquake hazards, HAZUS 

has been expanded into HAZUS Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH), a multi-hazard 

methodology with new modules for estimating potential losses from wind (including 

hurricane) and flood hazards. The program is considered to be in a state of development, 

but a current version of it is available from FEMA. NIBS maintains committees of wind, 

flood, earthquake, and software experts to provide technical oversight and guidance to 

HAZUS-MH development. HAZUS-MH uses ArcGIS software to map and display 

hazard data and the results of damage and economic loss estimates for buildings and 

infrastructure. The ArcGIS software, developed by ESRI, is required to run HAZUS and 

is sold separately (see reference 2.2.6 on page 16). Three data input tools have been 

developed to support data collection: the Inventory Collection Tool, Building Inventory 

Tool, and Flood Information Tool. The Inventory Collection Tool helps users collect and 

manage local building data for more refined analyses than are possible with the national 

level data sets that come with HAZUS. The Building Inventory Tool allows users to 

import building data from large datasets, such as tax assessor records. The Flood 

Information Tool helps users manipulate flood data into the format required by the 

HAZUS flood model. FEMA has also developed a companion software tool called the 

HAZUS-MH Risk Assessment Tool to produce risk assessment outputs for earthquakes, 

floods, and hurricanes. The Risk Assessment Tool pulls natural hazard data, inventory 

data, and loss estimate data into pre-formatted summary tables and text. HAZUS-MH can 

provide a probability of minor damage, moderate damage, and the destruction of 

constructed facilities. This information is viewable by occupancy type, type of building, 

essential facilities, and by user defined facilities. FEMA 433: Using HAZUS-MH for Risk 

Assessment along with the user manuals explains the capabilities of HAZUS-MH. 

2.2.8 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Risk Assessment Database.

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/rmsp452 

FEMA developed a Risk Assessment Database application to support the building 

assessment process described in FEMA 452 (see reference 3.1.34 on page 42). The Risk 

Assessment Database is a standalone application that is both a collection tool and a 

management tool. Assessors can use the tool to assist in the systematic collection, 

storage, and reporting of assessment data. It has functions, folders, and displays to import 

and display threat matrices, digital photos, cost data, emergency plans, and certain GIS 

products. Managers can use the application to store, search, and analyze data collected 

from multiple assessments. The Risk Assessment Database is initially installed at an 

organization’s headquarters. Referred to as the Manager’s Database, it becomes the main 

access and storage point for future assessment data. When an organization conducts an 

assessment, a database administrator uses the tool to produce a small temporary database, 

called the Assessor’s Database. References, site plans, GIS portfolios, and other sitespecific data that are known about the assessment site are placed into the assessor’s 

database and given to the assessment team. At the end of the assessment, the assessment 

team combines their data into one database and passes the files back to the database 

administrator. 

17
2.2.9 Integrated Computer Engineering. 

URL: http://www.iceincusa.com/

Integrated Computer Engineering (ICE), a division of American Systems, provides risk 

management services and software. It has conducted more than 300 risk assessments of 

Federal, DoD, state and commercial programs using the ISO 9001:2000 industry 

standard. ICE offers two software products: Risk Radar and Risk Radar Enterprise. Risk 

Radar is designed for single project risk management and is based on Microsoft Access. 

Risk Radar Enterprise is designed for enterprise risk management for multiple projects 

and is a web-based application. 

2.2.10 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Building and Fire 

Research Laboratory. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov 

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is a federal agency in the 

Department of Commerce that advances productivity through technology and standards. 

NIST has played a key role in the research and assessment of hurricane damage on the 

Gulf coast and the investigation of the World Trade Center disaster. Within NIST is the 

Building and Fire Research Laboratory (BFRL), which studies building materials, 

construction practices, fire science and safety, and engineering. The laboratory is the 

source of critical tools –metrics, models, knowledge– used to modernize the building and 

fire safety communities. Among the many software products developed by BFRL, four 

are particularly relevant in the assessment of buildings and structures: CONTAM, 

ALOFT-FT, ASCOS, and FIRST. CONTAM is a software product that assists in the 

prediction of airflows, contaminant concentration, and personal exposure. It is a 

multizone indoor air quality and ventilation analysis program that helps determine 

airflows, contamination dispersal, and exposure prediction. It can also be used to 

determine the impact of envelope air tightening efforts. ALOFT-FT is a fire plume 

trajectory model program that predicts the downwind distribution of “smoke particulate 

and combustion from large outdoor fires” along flat terrain. It was developed for planning 

the intentional burning of crude oil spills on water. ASCOS analyzes smoke control 

systems that produce pressure differences in order to limit smoke movement in structural 

fires. The user provides indoor and outdoor temperatures, the building flow network, and 

the flows produced by the smoke control system. FIRST predicts fire growth rates using 

data describing rooms, openings, and the thermo physics of a building. This program can 

predict fire growth rates and the possible ignition of specified targets. Fire Dynamics 

Simulator is a “computational fluid dynamics model of fire-driven fluid flow.” It solves 

Navier-Stokes equations with particular focus on smoke and heat transport. Smokeview is 

a visualization program for the Fire Dynamics Simulator. There are many other 

programs, both technical and non-technical, provided by NIST. 

18
2.2.11 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Information 

Technology Laboratory. Dataplot.

URL: http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/software/dataplot/ 

Although Dataplot is not customized for disaster mitigation, its features are suitable for 

performing a probabilistic risk assessment. It is a free software program used for 

scientific visualization, statistical analysis, mathematical analysis, and graphical analysis. 

Several versions are available, each for a different platform: UNIX, VMS, Linux, and 

Windows. Dataplot is a command-driven system that is written in Fortran-77. This 

software can be downloaded from the National Institute of Standards and Technology 

website. 

2.2.12 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Office of Applied 

Economics. “Building Life-Cycle Cost.” 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/info/software.html 

See reference 4.1.3.3 (page 90) 

2.2.13 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Office of Applied 

Economics. “Cost-Effectiveness Software Tool.” 

URL: http://www2.bfrl.nist.gov/software/CET/ 

See reference 4.1.3.4 (page 91) 

2.2.14 Palisade. @Risk.

URL: http://www.palisade.com/ 

Although @Risk is not customized for disaster mitigation, its features are suitable for 

performing a probabilistic risk assessment. It is a software package that conducts Monte 

Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. @Risk is compatible with Microsoft Excel and 

provides the probability of possible event outcomes. This software is commonly used to 

make investment decisions and provides modeling flexibility, standard reports, sensitivity 

analysis, and error tracking. Palisade offers a 10 day trial version of @Risk on their 

website. 

2.2.15 Risk Management Solutions Incorporated. 

URL: http://www.rms.com/

See reference 2.1.22 (page 14) 

2.2.16 Sandia National Laboratories. “Risk Assessment Method—Property 

Analysis and Ranking Tool.” 

URL: http://www.nwer.sandia.gov/wlp/factsheets/rampart.pdf

Researchers have developed a number of software-based risk assessment tools to model 

terrorist decision processes as well as risks from natural hazards and other man-made 

19
hazards. One such tool is the Risk Assessment Method—Property Analysis and Ranking 

Tool (RAMPART) software, developed at Sandia National Laboratories with funding 

from the General Services Administration. RAMPART combines building- and sitespecific information with geography-based seismic, weather, and crime data to predict 

the vulnerability of a building to several categories of consequences due to man-made 

and natural hazards. In RAMPART, categories of consequences include casualties, 

damage to property and contents, and loss of use and mission. RAMPART addresses 

natural hazards (hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding, and winter storms) and several 

manmade hazards (crime inside the building, crime outside the building, and terrorism). 

Sandia National Laboratories provides other risk assessment methodology (RAM) 

programs as well (http://www.sandia.gov/ram/index.htm). 

2.2.17 Securac. “Acertus Risk Assessment.” 

URL: http://www.securac.net/ 

The Securac risk assessment software program provides information and objectivity in 

calculating total cost of ownership (TCO), return on investment (ROI), and annual loss 

expectancy. Following industry standards, it manages risk using qualitative or 

quantitative assessments. Acertus Risk Assessment can merge internal risk data with 

national/international databases such as insurance actuarial tables and crime statistics. 

This software is available for purchase on the Securac website. 

2.2.18 Tec-Com Incorporated. RiskWorld. 

URL: http://www.riskworld.com/ 

Tec-Com is a technical communications company that provides an on-line website on the 

management of environmental, financial, health, and technological risks. The website 

provides an extensive list of risk related software with web links to the software 

producers (http://www.riskworld.com/SOFTWARE/SW5SW001.HTM). Most of the 

software products are produced by private companies and are available for purchase 

through their websites. 

2.3 Hazards Data 

2.3.1 Natural Hazards 

2.3.1.1 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and International Association 

of Earthquake Engineering. World Housing Encyclopedia. 

URL: http://www.world-housing.net/ 

The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (see reference 3.1.15 on page 37) and the 

International Association of Earthquake Engineering (see reference 3.1.42 on page 45) 

have collaborated to produce a web-based encyclopedia of types of housing construction 

in earthquake prone areas of the world. It provides exceedance of peak ground 

acceleration of ground movement and a description of the type of housing in the region. 

20
2.3.1.2 EarthQuake Information NETwork. 

URL: http://www.eqnet.org/ 

Funded by FEMA, the Earthquake Information Providers Group (EqIP) disseminates 

information concerning earthquakes and related topics through the EarthQuake 

Information NETwork (EQNET). The EQNET website provides links to numerous 

earthquake resources organized by topics: earthquake information services, structural 

engineering, geotechnical engineering/engineering geology, 

seismology/geology/geophysics, disaster management, policy/planning/socioeconomics, 

agencies and associations, education/professional development, list 

servers/newsgroups/newsletters/web forums, calendar/conferences, and archives. 

2.3.1.3 ESRI. 

URL: http://www.esri.com/

See reference 2.2.6 (page 16) 

2.3.1.4 Federal Emergency Management Agency. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/ 

See the description of FEMA in reference 2.1.6 and the Risk Assessment and Risk 

Management Guidance Documents in the references that follow it. 

2.3.1.5 High Plains Regional Climate Center and University of Nebraska. “Climate 

and Weather: Data, Information, and Products Clearinghouse.” 

URL: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/clearinghouse/index.html 

This clearinghouse provides links to weather data, information, and products. It is divided 

into three sections: data by time frame, by sector, and by application. Organizations such 

as the National Climatic Data Center, High Plains Regional Climate Center, and the 

Department of Agriculture are listed within the links. 

2.3.1.6 International Tsunami Information Centre. 

URL: http://www.tsunamiwave.info/

The International Tsunami Information Centre (ITIC) was established by the United 

Nations Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) in order to mitigate 

tsunami hazards. The ITIC website provides information about tsunamis and data 

concerning past tsunamis. 

2.3.1.7 Michigan Technological University Volcanoes Page. 

URL: http://www.geo.mtu.edu/volcanoes/ 

The Michigan Technological University Volcanoes Page provides information, links, and 

data about volcanic activity, mitigation, maps, and other interests. This site is useful for 

21
finding sites related to volcanoes such as the United States Geological Survey, NASA, 

the Smithsonian Institute, and journals related to volcanology. 

2.3.1.8 Mid-America Earthquake Center. 

URL: http://mae.ce.uiuc.edu/ 

The Mid-America Earthquake Center (MAE) was established by the National Science 

Foundation (NSF) and provides education, research, and outreach concerning earthquake 

hazards. Their website has a list of publications associated with the MAE Center and 

provides several software products developed by the MAE Center for evaluating 

earthquake hazards. The publications listed discuss engineering research and tend to be 

technical in nature. Unfortunately, they are not available to download directly from the 

website. 

2.3.1.9 NASA. “Disaster! Finder.” 

URL: http://disasterfinder.gsfc.nasa.gov/ 

The NASA “Disaster! Finder” website provides a list of 6 topics to browse: disaster 

management (e.g., mitigation, preparedness, and relief), disciplines (e.g., climate, GIS, 

and insurance), general (e.g., studies, workshops, and collections), organizations (e.g., 

public and private), systems (e.g., GIS software, emergency management systems, and 

observing systems), and type of disaster (e.g., avalanche, drought, earthquake, and flood). 

Each topic contains a list of subtopics with descriptions and links to related resources. 

2.3.1.10 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

URL: http://www.noaa.gov/ 

The NOAA is part of the Department of Commerce and is responsible for predicting 

changes in and informing the public about the earth’s environment as it relates to coastal 

and marine resources. The National Weather Service; National Environmental Satellite, 

Data, and Information Service (NESDIS); the National Ocean Service; and the Marine 

and Aviation Operations are part of the NOAA. Current and historical weather, ocean, 

and climate information (e.g., precipitation amount, storms, wind, and pressure) is 

available from the NOAA website and can be viewed in daily, monthly, or annual 

records. While some information requires a fee, many of these products are free to the 

public. The NOAA provides information and data on tsunamis (http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/

and http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/ and http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/), hurricanes 

(http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/ and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), coastal data 

(http://www.csc.noaa.gov/), severe thunderstorms (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/), climate 

and weather (http://www.weather.gov/om/), floods 

(http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hic/archive/), and fire weather 

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/fire/). Another site of the NOAA that provides data and 

imagery on natural hazards is located at 

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/hazards.shtml. 

22
2.3.1.11 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Storm Data (SD). 

URL: http://www5.ncdc.noaa.gov/pubs/publications.html 

See reference 3.3.2.13 (page 67) 

2.3.1.12 National Sea Grant Network. “HazNet.” 

URL: http://www.haznet.org/ 

HazNet is the National Sea Grant Network web site and is dedicated to reducing loss of 

life and property due to coastal hazards. It provides information and research about 

hazard mitigation, research projects, outreach, and other state Sea Grant institutions to 

contact or visit concerning coastal hazards. It provides abstracts of research projects, but 

the project report is not available directly from the website. 

2.3.1.13 National Weather Service. 

URL: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ 

Being the primary information source for weather in the U.S., The National Weather 

Service (NWS) provides information that forecasters use to make weather predictions. 

The NWS provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts, not only for the U.S., but 

also for surrounding areas. River levels, safety, warnings, radar information, satellite 

data, and an air quality assessment that provides ozone concentration levels are easily 

searchable by map and location name. Covering 1995 through 2004, statistics of natural 

disasters are grouped by number of fatalities, injuries, amount of property damage, and 

crop damage. 

2.3.1.14 National Weather Service: Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services. 

URL: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml 

The Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services provides a comprehensive list of 

natural disaster statistics. The information is available for state and national summaries as 

well as by the type of natural hazard. Currently, the data is available for the years of 1995 

through 2004. The summary tables provide the number of fatalities and injuries along 

with the amount of property damage and crop damage. The data by natural hazard type 

provides the number of fatalities by state and type of activity/location. 

2.3.1.15 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Satellite and 

Information Service: National Environmental Satellite, Data, and 

Information Service (NESDIS) 

URL: http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/

Providing global environmental data from satellites and other sources, the National 

Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NESDIS) is made up of several 

organizations: the National Climatic Data Center, the National Geophysical Data Center, 

the National Oceanographic Data Center, the National Coastal Data Development Center, 

and the Office of Satellite Operations. The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) 

23
contains the world’s largest archive of climate data and operates the World Data Center 

for Meteorology, which is co-located at NCDC. Envisioned to be the most 

comprehensive and accessible source of weather data, the NCDC distributes climate, 

satellite, and radar data, some of which is free to the public. The National Oceanographic 

Data Center (NODC) manages and preserves long-term and short-term oceanographic 

data. There are several ocean-data web applications that can be accessed through NODC: 

Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler Data, Argo Profiling Float Data, Coastal Buoy data, 

Coastal Water Temperature Guide, Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Program, Joint 

Archive for Sea Level, Ocean Time Series Data Base, and Satellite Data from NODC. 

2.3.1.16 Natural Environment Research Council. “Tsunami Risks Project.” 

URL: http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/ 

This site is provided by the Natural Environment Research Council of Coventry 

University and University College London. It has brief sections on the cause, physics, 

consequence, risk, and mitigation of tsunamis events. It also provides discussions about 

past tsunami events and their effects. 

2.3.1.17 Pacific Disaster Center. 

URL: http://www.pdc.org 

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) provides policy support and information products 

concerning disasters in the Asia Pacific region. Their webpage provides disaster maps 

(http://www.pdc.org/atlas) and a list of PDC publications, which are not accessible 

through their website. 

2.3.1.18 Swiss Re. Twister! The Professional Reinsurer’s Perspective. 

URL: http://www.swissre.com/ 

This publication provides occurrence and frequency information on tornados. It focuses 

primarily on the United States and discusses the impact of tornados. It proposes that a 

greater understanding of tornados will help prevent deaths, injuries, and damage. It 

briefly describes the Fujita wind damage scale, which is commonly used to measure the 

severity of a tornado. 

2.3.1.19 Tropical Storm Risk Consortium. 

URL: http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/ 

The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium was developed from a project of the United 

Kingdom and draws information from numerous entities of expertise. Their website 

contains viewable publications and information about present and past tropical storms 

occurring in various parts of the world. 

24
2.3.1.20 United States Geological Survey. 

URL: http://www.usgs.gov/ 

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) is a federal agency in the Department of 

the Interior that manages and provides information concerning water, biological, energy, 

and mineral resources. It has produced background information for the nation concerning 

seven types of natural hazards: floods, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, coastal 

storms and tsunamis, wildfires, and outbreaks of disease in wildlife populations 

(http://www.usgs.gov/themes/hazard.html). Researchers at the USGS Coastal and Marine 

Geology Program are also developing models to predict the occurrences, severity, and 

consequences of natural disasters (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/natural-disasters/index.html). 

Live updates of natural disasters occurring around the world can be viewed at 

http://nhss.cr.usgs.gov/. 

2.3.1.21 United States Geological Survey: Earthquakes Hazard Program. 

URL: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/

The USGS National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC: http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov), 

National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazmaps), and 

Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS: http://earthquakes.usgs.gov/anss) provide 

earthquake data and hazard maps through the USGS Earthquakes Hazard Program. The 

national and global earthquake hazard data are available by zip code or by latitude and 

longitude. The Earthquakes Hazard Program provides a site dedicated to the preparedness 

and response to seismic events. 

2.3.1.22 United States Geological Survey: Marine and Coastal Geology Program. 

URL: http://marine.usgs.gov/ 

The USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program balances coastal and marine resources. 

It has several projects associated with hurricane and coastal storm prediction. The Coastal 

Classification Mapping Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/coastalclassification/index.html) characterizes and classifies pre-storm ground conditions for 

states located along the Gulf of Mexico that, when combined with data about beach 

stability and prior storm impact studies (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/index.html), 

provide indications of an area’s vulnerability to hurricanes or other extreme coastal 

storms. Information on this site is categorized by topic, region, and content. 

2.3.1.23 United States Geological Survey: National Geospatial Program Office. 

URL: http://www.usgs.gov/ngpo/ 

The National Geospatial Program Office brings the National Map, Geospatial One-Stop, 

and the Federal Geographic Data Committee into one program office. The National Map 

(http://nationalmap.gov/) provides a common set of base information that describes the 

earth’s surface and locates geographic features. There are multiple layers to this map that 

include both political and geographical information. The Geospatial One-Stop 

(http://www.geodata.gov) has links to information and has the ability to search multiple 

25
databases. It has fire mapping, administrative boundaries, facility information, and 

agricultural information as well as atmospheric, economic, demographic, elevation, 

transportation, utility, and water data. The Federal Geographic Data Committee 

(http://www.fgdc.gov/) promotes the coordinated development, use, and dissemination of 

geospatial data. Their website provides the National Spatial Data Infrastructure, which 

searches numerous global databases. 

2.3.1.24 United States Geological Survey: Tsunami and Earthquake Research at the 

USGS. 

URL: http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/tsunami/ 

This USGS website provides information and reports from current research being 

conducted on tsunamis and earthquakes. It provides models, animations, and analyses of 

past tsunamis and earthquakes. Other links that provide further information are listed on 

their website. 

 

2.3.1.25 United States Geological Survey: USGS Landslide Hazards Program. 

URL: http://landslides.usgs.gov/

The USGS Landslide Hazards Program is dedicated to reducing long-term losses from 

landslide hazards by advancing knowledge and mitigation. It conducts research, produces 

reports, and responds to emergencies and disasters. The “National Landslide Hazards 

Mitigation Strategy- A Framework for Loss Reduction” is one publication that can be 

found on their site (http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1244/c1244.pdf). It discusses the 

probability and damage caused by a landslide and provides a comprehensive 

community/government strategy for reducing losses. There are a number of other useful 

publications on landslides through their website. 

2.3.1.26 United States Geological Survey: Volcano Hazards Program. 

URL: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ 

The USGS Volcano Hazards Program provides information on reducing volcanic risk, 

volcano monitoring, emergency planning, warning schemes, and disaster assistance. It 

also has a list of resources for facts, photos, videos, and reports. Another USGS site 

related to volcanoes is at http://www.usgs.gov/themes/volcano.html. 

2.3.1.27 University of Colorado-Boulder: Center for Science and Technology. 

“Extreme Weather Sourcebook.” 

URL: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/ 

This website contains a sourcebook of economic and societal impacts caused by 

hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, lightning, and other selected weather. The damage is listed 

by state and provides a ranking and dollar amount for the damage caused by each type of 

weather condition. 

26
2.3.1.28 World Health Organization, Collaborating Centre for Research on the 

Epidemiology of Disasters. EM-DAT Emergency Disasters Data Base. 

URL: http://www.em-dat.net/ 

This disaster database was created with the support of the World Health Organization 

(http://www.cred.be/cred1/index.htm) and the Belgian Government in order to evaluate 

disaster vulnerability and disaster preparedness. The data is downloadable and searchable 

by region, country, period, and type/group of disaster. The database contains over 12 800 

mass disasters in the world from 1900 to the present, including both natural and 

manmade disasters. 

2.3.2 Man-Made Hazards 

2.3.2.1 Chemical Safety Board (CSB). 

URL: http://www.csb.gov/ 

The U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB) is a federal agency that is responsible for 

investigating industrial chemical accidents. It does not issue fines, but makes 

recommendations to public and private entities. The CSB website contains reports on 

current and completed investigations, safety publications, and recommendations by the 

CSB. 

2.3.2.2 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 

URL: http://www.epa.gov/ 

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protects the health and environment of the 

nation. It conducts research, publishes articles, and develops and enforces regulations. 

Their website has facts and publications on acid rain, air quality, asbestos, water quality, 

climate change, hazardous waste, mercury levels, mold, oil spills, ozone, pesticides, and 

radon. 

2.3.2.3 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). “Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) 

Program.” 

URL: http://www.epa.gov/tri/ 

The Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) Program is a database of toxic chemical releases and 

other waste management activities reported annually to the Environmental Protection 

Agency (EPA). The data includes location, type of release, and type of chemical. 

2.3.2.4 ESRI. 

URL: http://www.esri.com/

See reference 2.2.6 (page 16) 

27
2.3.2.5 Federal Bureau of Investigation. Annual Uniform Crime Report.

URL: http://www.fbi.gov/publications.htm

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) defends against terrorist, foreign intelligence, 

and criminal acts in the United States. The FBI website contains information on cyber 

crimes, public corruption, organized crime, and environmental crimes. Crime statistics 

are provided through the annual Uniform Crime Report. This report details crimes in the 

U.S. by region, weapon, and incidence. This extensive report provides current and 

archive crime data. 

2.3.2.6 Federal Bureau of Investigation. Terrorism in the United States. 

URL: http://www.fbi.gov/publications.htm

The FBI publishes a periodic report that provides descriptions and selected statistics of 

terrorism incidences in the United States. It includes information about the perpetrators of 

terrorist incidents, the number of terrorist acts committed, and the number of acts in each 

region of the U.S. 

2.3.2.7 Federal Emergency Management Agency. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/ 

See reference 2.1.6 (page 9) 

2.3.2.8 Marlatt, Greta E. Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Terrorism/Warfare: A 

Bibliography. Dudley Knox Library: Naval Postgraduate School, September 

2003. 

URL: http://www.nps.edu/Library/Research/Bibliographies/CBNTerror/CBNTerror

Bib.pdf.pdf 

This text is a bibliography on terrorism and warfare. It has three primary sections: 

chemical, biological, and nuclear terrorism/warfare. Each of these sections has four 

subsections: periodicals, books, technical reports, and websites. 

2.3.2.9 National Fire Protection Association. 

URL: http://www.nfpa.org 

The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) is a private organization that is 

committed to reducing life-threatening hazards through research and standardized codes. 

The NFPA provides safety, statistical, and fire equipment information to the public; 

nearly every building is affected by NFPA standards and documents. The different kinds 

of statistical information include data on trends, causes, history, and services as it relates 

to fires in the United States. The NFPA provides codes and standards in publication form 

and on the Internet; access to the comprehensive fire code publication requires 

membership. Publications include the National Fire Alarm Code, Designer’s Guide to 

Automatic Sprinkler Systems, and NFPA Catalog, which contains fire, electrical, and 

building safety products. The NFPA provides fact sheets that are categorized into Home 

28
Safety, Safety in other occupancies, Homeland Security, Fire protection equipment, 

seasonal safety, Vehicle fires/gas and fuel safety, Oil refineries, and Wildland fires. Each 

category is then subcategorized into specific issues. For example, under Vehicle fires/gas 

and fuel safety is Gasoline at home, Propane safety, and Service station safety. Although 

the fact sheets do not provide the raw data for analysis, they contain facts and figures. 

2.3.2.10 National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) 

URL: http://www.mipt.org/

See reference 3.3.2.11 (page 67) 

2.3.2.11 National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism. “Terrorism 

Knowledge Base.” 

URL: http://www.tkb.org/Home.jsp 

The National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) and the RAND 

Corporation coordinated the Terrorism Knowledge Base. The project has two databases: 

the RAND Terrorism Chronology Database and the RAND-MIPT Terrorism Incident 

Database. The former records international terrorist incidents that occurred between 1968 

and 1997; the later records domestic and international terrorist incidents occurring from 

1998 to the present. The website includes a great deal of information about terrorist 

groups, incidents, cases, leaders, their countries, and other issues. See reference 2.1.21 on 

page 13 and 3.3.2.11 on page 67. 

2.3.2.12 Swiss Re. 

URL: http://www.swissre.com/

See reference 3.3.2.22 (page 69) 

2.3.2.13 United States Army Training and Doctrine Command, Deputy Chief of 

Staff for Intelligence, Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, 

Threats. A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century. U.S. 

Army DCSINT Handbook No. 1. Fort Leavenworth, KS: August 15, 2005. 

URL: http://fas.org/irp/threat/terrorism/ 

This publication details terrorism threats to the U.S. military, but can be useful to any 

organization that might have contact with a terrorist group. It has descriptions of 

improvised explosive devices, weapons of mass destruction, terrorist firearms, terrorist 

tactics, and contains a history of terrorism. This publication is useful for familiarization 

of terrorist practices and activities. DCSINT Handbook No. 1.02: Cyber Operations and 

Cyber Terrorism is a supplement to this Handbook (see reference 2.3.2.14 on page 30). 

29
2.3.2.14 United States Army Training and Doctrine Command, Deputy Chief of 

Staff for Intelligence, Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, 

Threats. Cyber Operations and Cyber Terrorism. U.S. Army DCSINT 

Handbook No. 1.02. Fort Leavenworth, KS: August 15, 2005. 

URL: http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/terrorism/sup2.pdf 

DCSINT Handbook No. 1.02: Cyber Operations and Cyber Terrorism is a supplement to 

Handbook No. 1 (see reference 2.3.2.13 on page 29). It discusses cyber terrorism, its 

threat to U.S. infrastructure, and its threat to the military. The objective of cyber terrorism 

includes the loss of availability, loss of confidentially, and physical destruction. 

2.3.2.15 United States Census Bureau. 

URL: http://www.census.gov

The Census Bureau is part of the Department of Commerce and is a leading source of 

information concerning the U.S. economy and people. This agency provides 

downloadable data in tables or viewable on maps. Some of the information includes: 

personal income, population, poverty, insurance, housing, employment, economic 

indicators, and more. The data is viewable for the nation or for specific cities, counties, 

states, or regions. The Census Bureau is a primary source of statistical data on the nation. 

2.3.2.16 United States Census Bureau. Statistical Abstract of the United States. 

URL: http://www.census.gov/statab/www/ 

The Statistical Abstract of the United States contains numerous social and economic 

statistics for the United States, which include population, law enforcement, education, 

health, prison, court, and construction statistics. This publication is also a guide to 

sources of data from other federal and private agencies. 

 

2.3.2.17 United States Department of Justice: Bureau of Justice Statistics. 

URL: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/ 

The Bureau of Justice Statistics provides statistics on crime and victims, criminal 

offenders, law enforcement, prosecution, courts and sentencing, and other topics. It 

contains both state and national level statistics. The Bureau of Justice Statistics lists 

additional sources of information for each subject. 

2.3.2.18 United States Department of Transportation: Bureau of Transportation 

Statistics. 

URL: http://www.bts.gov/ 

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) provides data on transportation. The data 

is searchable by mode of transportation (i.e., aviation, maritime, highway, transit, rail, 

pipeline, or bike/pedestrian) or by subject (i.e., safety, freight transport, passenger travel, 

infrastructure, economic/financial, social/demographic, energy, environment, and 

national security). Various other statistics are available through the BTS TransStats 

30
websites (http://transtats.bts.gov/). Also see the U.S. Department of Transportation in 

reference 3.3.1.34. 

2.3.2.19 United States Fire Administration. 

URL: http://www.usfa.dhs.gov/ 

The United States Fire Administration (USFA) is part of the Department of Homeland 

Security that provides education, research, and data associated with economic and life 

losses due to fires. Their website contains fire statistics, the National Fire Incident 

Reporting System (NFIRS), and the National Fire Department Census Database. Fire 

statistics on the USFA website includes data on arson, wildfire, seasonal fires, fire 

departments, and firefighters. The NFIRS is a standard national reporting system for fires 

and other incidents that U.S. fire departments respond to. The National Fire Department 

Census Database is an online address listing of U.S. fire departments. 

31
32
3 Risk Management Resources 

The risk management step focuses on identification of risk mitigation strategies. This 

step uses information from the risk assessment (e.g., estimates of the value of the 

facility’s assets and the consequences of an event occurring) to identify engineering, 

management and financial strategies to mitigate those consequences. The costs of 

implementing the alternative risk mitigation strategies and the associated reductions in 

consequences are also produced as part of this step. 

Section 3.1 covers risk management guidance documents. The emphasis in Section 3.1 is 

on establishing a technical foundation for formulating combinations of risk mitigation 

strategies that address the hazards identified in the risk assessment and identifying key 

resource documents that provide guidance on how to formulate multi-hazard risk 

mitigation strategies. Each strategy is composed of multiple approaches for addressing 

hazards identified in the risk assessment. These approaches focus on hazard mitigation 

for a specific system or collection of systems and components, as well as facility and siterelated elements. Documents abstracted include the FEMA Risk Management Series of 

publications, as well as publications from the AIA, ASCE, CII, GAO, GSA, IBHS, 

NFPA, NRC, and the NSTC. 

Section 3.2 focuses on risk management software. Coverage of software tools focuses on 

their value in compiling, organizing, and evaluating information and data needed to 

formulate alternative combinations of risk mitigation strategies. 

Section 3.3 covers guidance documents for cost-related issues; it is divided into two 

subsections: mitigation costs and event-related losses. Documents abstracted are 

designed to help the reader compile information on the amount and timing of investment 

costs, operating costs, maintenance and repair costs, and consequences for each 

alternative combination of risk mitigation strategies. 

Section 3.4 covers software tools that are useful in developing estimates of mitigation 

costs and event-related losses.

3.1 Risk Management Guidance Documents 

3.1.1 Advanced Materials and Processes Technology Information Analysis Center. 

URL: http://ammtiac.alionscience.com/ 

The Advanced Materials and Processes Technology Information Analysis Center 

(AMMTIAC) is chartered by the Department of Defense to provide data and information. 

Their website provides a list of their publications, which are available for purchase. 

AMPTIAC Quarterly is a publication that provides research on advanced materials and 

processes; many of the articles discuss the protection of buildings and structures. 

AMMTIAC also provides an Inquiry Service, which provides free advice and technical 

solutions via telephone or email. 

33
3.1.2 American Institute of Architects. Security Planning and Design: A Guide for 

Architects and Building Design Professionals. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley & Sons, 

2003. 

This text provides current information on security planning in new and existing facilities. 

It discusses security design concepts, security evaluation, planning, building hardening, 

security technology, biochemical and radiological protection, and putting security into 

practice. 

3.1.3 American Management Association. Facility Manager’s Emergency 

Preparedness Handbook.

URL: http://www.amanet.org/ 

In 2003, the American Management Association (AMA) published the Facility 

Manager’s Emergency Preparedness Handbook. This handbook is intended as a 

reference for emergency preparedness planning. It provides guidelines, tools, and 

checklists to facility managers to prepare for several types of emergencies: terrorism, fire 

emergency, lockout, and workplace violence. 

3.1.4 American Red Cross. 

URL: http://www.redcross.org/ 

The American Red Cross is a private emergency response organization, financed 

primarily through donations. The Red Cross responds to natural disasters, hazardous 

spills, transportation accidents, explosions, and any other natural or man-made disaster. 

Their website is useful for preparation in responding to a disaster or emergency, and it 

provides information on all their services. It discusses topics such as water treatment, 

food safety, generators, financial losses, chemical emergencies, earthquakes, fires, floods, 

heat waves, hurricanes, mudslides, storms, tornadoes, volcanoes, and fires. This 

organization targets private individuals, who have been or will be affected by a disaster. 

The Red Cross federated with the Red Crescent Society has developed the ProVention 

Consortium, which aims at reducing global risk of disaster: 

http://www.proventionconsortium.org/. 

3.1.5 American Society for Industrial Security (ASIS). 

URL: http://www.asisonline.org/ 

American Society for Industrial Security (ASIS) develops educational programs and 

materials that address security issues. ASIS administers three certification programs: the 

Certified Protection Professional (CPP), the Physical Security Professional (PSP), and the 

Professional Certified Investigator (PCI). It also hosts the ASIS International Annual 

Seminar and Exhibits. 

34
3.1.6 American Society of Civil Engineers. 

URL: http://www.asce.org/asce.cfm 

Founded in 1852, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) promotes engineering 

to build a better quality of life. It has numerous publications, which include a monthly 

magazine, Civil Engineering; a monthly newspaper, ASCE News; the quarterly GeoStrata; numerous journals; and a variety of books. It has produced a number of texts on 

infrastructure vulnerability. ASCE maintains a codes and standards program that is 

divided into six specialized committee groups: Architectural Engineering Institute, 

Construction Institute, Environmental and Water Resources Institute, Geo-Institute, 

Structural Engineering Institute, and the Transportation and Development Institute. 

3.1.7 American Society of Civil Engineers. Flood Resistant Design and 

Construction. SEI/ASCE 24-05. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil 

Engineers, 2006. 

This standard establishes minimum requirements for flood-resistant design and 

construction of new facilities in flood zones. It addresses design, materials, dry and wet 

flood proofing, utilities, means of egress, and accessory structures in areas subject to 

flooding. This document is available for purchase from the American Society of Civil 

Engineers. 

3.1.8 American Society of Civil Engineers. Minimum Design Loads for Building 

and Other Structures. SEI/ASCE 7-05. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil 

Engineers, 2006. 

This text provides the latest “consensus requirements for soil, flood, wind, snow, rain, 

ice, and earthquake loads, and their combinations, that are suitable for inclusion in 

building codes and other documents.” This text is referenced in the International Building 

Code (see reference 3.1.43 on page 45) and the 2002 NFPA 5000 Building and 

Construction Safety Code. 

3.1.9 American Society of Civil Engineers. Prestandard and Commentary for the 

Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings. FEMA 356. Washington DC: Federal 

Emergency Management Agency, November 2000. 

URL: http://www.nehrp.gov/info/PDF/FEMA356/FEMA356.pdf 

This prestandard provides preliminary provisions for the rehabilitation of buildings to 

improve seismic performance. The intended audience includes code officials, building 

owners, and design professionals. It discusses building configuration, component 

properties, primary and secondary elements, structural strengthening, design 

requirements, and many other topics. This publication is technical in nature. 

35
3.1.10 American Society of Civil Engineers. Structural Design for Physical Security. 

Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers. 

This text is a guide to protect civil structures from the effects of explosive blasts. It is 

written primarily for structural engineers and discusses “methods by which structural 

loadings are derived for the determined threat, the behavior and selection of structural 

systems, the design of structural components, the design of security doors, the design of 

utility openings, and the retrofitting of existing structures.” 

3.1.11 Blue Ribbon Panel on Bridge and Tunnel Security. Recommendations for 

Bridge and Tunnel Security. Federal Highway Administration, September 

2003. 

URL: http://www.tisp.org/files/pdf/aashto.fhwa.bdge.tunnel.security.pdf

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is responsible for improving highway 

performance and provides “leadership in defining future transportation” 

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/). A Blue Ribbon Panel of bridge and tunnel experts was 

convened at the FHWA to produce Recommendations for Bridge and Tunnel Security. 

The panel was jointly sponsored by the FHWA and the American Association of State 

Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). This publication is intended to 

recommend policies and actions to reduce the probability of catastrophic structural 

damage to bridges and tunnels. 

3.1.12 Building Seismic Safety Council. NEHRP Recommended Provisions for 

Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and other Structures. FEMA 450. 

Washington DC: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2003.

URL: http://www.nehrp.gov/info/index.html 

This publication presents criteria for the design and construction of structures to resist 

ground motion caused by earthquakes. The intent of these provisions is to create an 

environment where there is a low likelihood of structural collapse. Buildings designed by 

these provisions are likely to suffer repairable damage; however, the cost of repairs may 

not be economical. The provisions apply to the design and alteration of new and existing 

structures. There are two parts and two additional sections to FEMA 450: Provisions, 

Commentary, MCE Maps, and Long Period Maps. 

3.1.13 Cauffman, Stephen A. and H. S. Lew. Standards of Seismic Safety for Existing 

Federally Owned and Leased Buildings. NISTIR 6762. ICSSC RP 6. 

Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, January 

2002. 

URL: http://www.nehrp.gov/info/PDF/NISTIR_6762.pdf 

This publication provides federal agencies with minimum and extended standards for the 

evaluation and mitigation of seismic events on buildings. In this document, Life-Safety is 

the minimum acceptable performance, and Immediate Occupancy is considered to be an 

extended level of performance. These definitions are founded in FEMA 310 (FEMA 310 

36
has been replaced by ASCE 31-03 in reference 2.1.3) and FEMA 356 (see reference 3.1.9

on page 35). Topics in this document include rehabilitation, component modification, 

irregularities, mitigation methods, and historic buildings. 

3.1.14 Construction Industry Institute. Implementing Project Security Practices. 

Implementation Resource BMM-3. July 2005. 

This guide was developed by the Construction Industry Institute (CII) in order to 

determine best practices for project security of industrial projects. It provides assistance 

in transitioning from security research to implementation and is most appropriate for 

those who are managing security issues from the very initial phases of building design to 

the final stages of construction. (See reference 3.1.63 on page 50) 

3.1.15 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. 

URL: http://www.eeri.org/ 

This organization is a group of technical and social scientists committed to reducing 

earthquake risk by improving behavior and designs. It has several publications and a 

professional journal titled Earthquake Spectra that are available for purchase. 

3.1.16 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. Action Plan for Performance 

Based Seismic Design. FEMA 349. Washington DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, April 2000. 

URL: http://www.nehrp.gov/information.html 

This publication provides a plan to implement performance based seismic design, which 

is a building design that has “predictable and reliable performance in earthquakes.” This 

method uses a “sliding scale” that allows a building to be designed to perform at certain 

level in an earthquake of a specified severity. Stakeholders can select a level of 

performance and more easily quantify expected risks to their buildings. 

3.1.17 Eidinger, John M., and Ernesto A Avila. Guidelines for the Seismic 

Evaluation and Upgrade of Water Transmission facilities. Reston, VA: 

American Society of Civil Engineers, 1999. 

This text addresses the vulnerability of water transmission facilities in the case of a 

seismic event. It provides guidelines for “evaluation and retrofit of water transmission 

infrastructure including aqueducts, tunnels, canals, buried pipelines, elevated pipelines 

and their appurtenances.” It discusses current practices and past performance. 

3.1.18 Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH). 

URL: http://www.flash.org/

FLASH is a non-profit organization that promotes disaster safety and mitigation for 

residential homes. It provides home safety information that discusses preparing and 

responding to earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, hail, hurricanes, lightning, 

37
power outage, rip currents, terrorism, thunderstorms, tornadoes, tsunamis, and wildfire. 

FLASH also provides online animations of securing and reinforcing home roofs, walls, 

windows, doors, foundation, and safe landscaping. 

3.1.19 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/

See reference 2.1.6 (page 9) and the FEMA references that follow it 

3.1.20 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Building Design for Homeland 

Security. FEMA E 155. Washington DC: Federal Emergency Management 

Agency. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm

FEMA has created a course, E 155: Building Design for Homeland Security, which draws 

on FEMA 426 and FEMA 452. The course familiarizes students with assessment 

methodologies available to identify the relative level of risk for a variety of threats, 

including blast, chemical, biological, and radiological weapons. This course is designed 

for engineers, architects, and building officials. 

3.1.21 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Communicating with Owners and 

Managers of New Buildings on Earthquake Risk: A Primer for Design 

Professionals. FEMA 389. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, January 2004. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm 

FEMA 389: Communicating with Owners and Managers of New Buildings on 

Earthquake Risk: A Primer for Design Professionals is a FEMA Risk Management Series 

publication. It was developed to aid in educating building owners and managers about 

seismic risk management tools. The guide discusses site location, seismic hazards, 

surface fault rupture, soil hazards, and other hazards posed by seismic events. This 

detailed document provides illustrations, data, checklists, a risk management plan, case 

studies, and specifications. 

3.1.22 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Design Guidance for Multi-Hazard 

Shelters. FEMA 453. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency Management 

Agency. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm

FEMA 453 of the FEMA Risk Management Series publications provides design 

information on shelters and safe rooms for constructed facilities. It is in support of the 

All-Hazards preparedness objective established by Homeland Security Presidential 

Directive/HSPD-8 (see reference in Appendix C:3 on page 123). The information in 

FEMA 453 is applicable to the work place, home, or community building. These shelters 

are temporary safe rooms that are not intended to provide continuous protection and are 

effective only if there is warning of an approaching disaster. 

38
3.1.23 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Design Guide for School Safety 

against Earthquakes, Floods, and High Winds. FEMA 424. Washington, DC: 

Federal Emergency Management Agency, January 2004. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm 

FEMA 424: Design Guide for School Safety against Earthquakes, Floods, and High 

Winds, is a manual of the FEMA Risk Management Series publications designed to make 

available guidance for the protection of school buildings from natural disasters. It 

primarily addresses grade schools and considers the threat of earthquakes, floods, and 

high winds. The manual emphasizes two methodologies: multi-hazard design and 

performance-based design. Discussing the safety of occupants along with economic and 

social losses, the guide considers past and present school designs and school needs. 

3.1.24 Federal Emergency Management Agency. FEMA Reports Prepared for SAC 

Steel Project. FEMA 350 Series. Washington DC: FEMA, 2000. 

URL: http://www.nehrp.gov/information.html 

This series of reports includes 10 publications that detail structural design of buildings to 

withstand earthquakes. It includes the following documents: 

• FEMA 350: Recommended Seismic Design Criteria for New Steel MomentFrame Buildings 

• FEMA 351: Recommended Seismic Evaluation and Upgrade Criteria for 

Existing Welded Steel Moment-Frame Buildings 

• FEMA 352: Recommended Post earthquake Evaluation and Repair Criteria for 

Welded Steel Moment-Frame Construction for Seismic Applications 

• FEMA 354: A Policy Guide to Steel Moment-Frame Construction 

• FEMA 355A: State of the Art Report on Base Materials and Fracture 

• FEMA 355B: State of the Art Report on Welding and Inspection 

• FEMA 355C: State of the Art Report on Systems Performance of Steel Moment 

Frames Subject to Earthquake Ground Shaking 

• FEMA 355D: State of the Art Report on Connection Performance 

• FEMA 355E: State of the Art Report on Past Performance of Steel MomentFrame Buildings in Earthquakes 

• FEMA 355F: State of the Art Report on Performance Prediction and Evaluation 

of Steel Moment-Frame Structures 

3.1.25 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation 

of Hospital Buildings. FEMA 396. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, December 2003. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm

FEMA 396: Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation of Hospital Buildings of the FEMA Risk 

Management Series publications is a manual that provides information to assess the 

seismic vulnerability of healthcare facilities. The manual contains three parts: Part A, 

39
Critical Decisions for Earthquake Safety in Hospitals; Part B, Planning and Managing the 

Process for Earthquake Risk Reduction in Existing Hospital Buildings; and Part C, Tools 

for Implementing Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation in Existing Hospital Buildings. 

Each part is directed toward different administrative functions of a healthcare facility. 

3.1.26 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation 

of Multifamily Apartment Buildings. FEMA 398. Washington, DC: Federal 

Emergency Management Agency, February 2004. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm 

FEMA 398: Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation of Multifamily Apartment Buildings is a 

manual that provides owners of multifamily buildings information to implement a 

seismic rehabilitation program. The manual consists of three parts: Part A, Critical 

Decisions for Earthquake Safety in Multifamily Buildings; Part B, Planning and 

Managing the Process for Earthquake Risk Reduction in Existing Multifamily Buildings; 

and Part C, Tools for Implementing Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation in Existing 

Multifamily Buildings. Each part has a different audience: senior executives, board 

members, policy makers, facility managers, risk managers, financial managers and those 

who are responsible for the implementation of a seismic program. 

3.1.27 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation 

of Office Buildings, FEMA 397. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, December 2003. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm 

FEMA 397: Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation of Office Buildings is a manual that 

provides owners of office buildings with information to evaluate the vulnerability of their 

buildings. This manual contains three sections: Part A, Critical Decisions for Earthquake 

Safety in Office buildings; Part B, Planning and Managing the Process for Earthquake 

Risk Reduction in Existing Office Buildings; and Part C, Tools for Implementing 

Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation in Existing Office Buildings. Each part has a specific 

audience: owner, board members, policy makers, facility managers, risk managers, and 

those who will implement the programs. 

3.1.28 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation 

of Retail Buildings. FEMA 399. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, June 2004. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm

FEMA 399: Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation of Retail Buildings is a manual that 

provides owners of retail buildings the information necessary to implement a seismic 

rehabilitation program. This program, like FEMA 395 through 398, contains three 

sections: Part A, Critical Decisions for Earthquake Safety in Retail buildings; Part B, 

Planning and Managing the Process for Earthquake Risk Reduction in Existing Retail 

Buildings; Part C, Tools for Implementing Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation in Existing 

Retail Buildings. Each section targets a different audience: senior executives, board 

40
members, policy makers, facility managers, risk managers, financial managers, and those 

who are responsible for the implementation of a seismic program. 

3.1.29 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation 

of School Buildings. FEMA 395. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, January 2003. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm

FEMA 395 of the Risk Management Series publication: Incremental Seismic 

Rehabilitation for School Buildings provides school administrators with information to 

evaluate seismic vulnerability of their buildings and information about a program of 

seismic rehabilitation for those buildings. The manual consists of three parts: Part A, 

Critical Decisions for Earthquake Safety in Schools; Part B, Managing the Process for 

Earthquake Risk Reduction in Existing School Buildings; and Part C, Tools for 

Implementing Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation in School Buildings. 

3.1.30 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Insurance, Finance, and 

Regulation Primer for Terrorism Risk Management in Buildings. FEMA 429. 

Washington, DC: Federal Emergency Management Agency, December 2003. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm 

This Risk Management Series publication, FEMA 429: Insurance, Finance, and 

Regulation Primer for Terrorism Risk Management in Buildings, is a primer on risk 

management. The purpose of FEMA 429 is to introduce the building insurance, finance, 

and regulatory communities to the issue of terrorism risk management in buildings and 

the tools currently available to manage these risks. It presents current building regulations 

related to terrorism risk and vulnerability. FEMA 429 also provides a categorized 

security checklist. 

3.1.31 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Primer for Design of Commercial 

Buildings to Mitigate Terrorist Attacks. FEMA 427. Washington, DC: Federal 

Emergency Management Agency, December 2003. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm

FEMA 427: Primer for Design of Commercial Buildings to Mitigate Terrorist Attacks, a 

Risk Management Series publication, is a primer that introduces a series of concepts that 

can help building designers, owners, and managers mitigate the threat of hazards 

resulting from terrorist attacks on new buildings. FEMA 427 contains extensive 

qualitative design guidance for limiting or mitigating the effects of terrorist attacks; it 

focuses primarily on attacks using explosives, but also addresses chemical, biological, 

and radiological attacks. The primer focuses on limiting the effects of attacks on 

commercial offices, retail stores, multifamily residences, and light industrial buildings. 

41
3.1.32 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Primer to Design Safe School 

Projects in Case of Terrorist Attacks. FEMA 428. Washington, DC: Federal 

Emergency Management Agency, December 2003. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm

FEMA 428: Primer to Design Safe School Projects in Case of Terrorist Attacks, from the 

Risk Management Series publications, is a primer on school projects. The purpose of 

FEMA 428 is to provide the design community and school administrators with the basic 

principles and techniques to make a school that is safe from terrorist attacks. It includes a 

method of risk assessment, information on building design, and school safety plans. It 

describes the idea of safe rooms that can resist chemical, biological, and radiological 

attacks as well as blast threats. 

3.1.33 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Reference Manual to Mitigate 

Potential Terrorist Attacks against Buildings. FEMA 426. Washington, DC: 

Federal Emergency Management Agency, December 2003. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm

This Risk Management Series publication, FEMA 426: Reference Manual to Mitigate 

Potential Terrorist Attacks against Buildings is a reference tool that provides guidance to 

architects and engineers on how to reduce physical damage to buildings, related 

infrastructure, and injuries caused by terrorist attacks. The manual presents incremental 

approaches that can be implemented over time to decrease the vulnerability of buildings 

to terrorist threats. FEMA 426 is a useful resource that draws information from FEMA, 

the Department of Commerce, Department of Defense, Department of Justice, General 

Services Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, and other organizations. 

3.1.34 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Risk Assessment: A How-To Guide 

to Mitigate Potential Terrorist Attacks against Buildings. FEMA 452. 

Washington, DC: Federal Emergency Management Agency, January 2005. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm 

FEMA 452, Risk Assessment: a How-To Guide to Mitigate Potential Terrorist Attacks 

against Buildings of the FEMA Risk Management Series publications provides a clear, 

flexible, and comprehensive methodology for preparing a risk assessment. FEMA 452 

outlines methods for identifying the critical assets and functions within buildings, 

determining the threats to those assets, and assessing the vulnerabilities associated with 

those threats. The guide presents five steps and multiple tasks within each step that define 

a process for conducting a risk assessment and for selecting risk mitigation strategies. 

3.1.35 Federal Facilities Council. Key Performance Indicators for Federal Facilities 

Portfolios. Federal Facilities Council Technical Report #147. Washington 

DC: National Academies Press, 2004. 

This report discusses the performance measures for federal buildings needed to make 

informed decisions about facility investment. It outlines the information that answers the 

42
following questions: what facilities are present, what is their current condition, what 

facilities are needed, what issues need to be addressed, what are the required investments, 

and what are the current investments. 

3.1.36 Frangopol, M. Dan. Bridge Safety and Reliability. Reston, VA: American 

Society of Civil Engineers, 1999. 

Bridge Safety and Reliability discusses “bridge reliability concepts and methods, 

modeling of bridge loads, bridge strength, reliability of bridge components and systems, 

bridge evaluation, nondestructive bridge testing, bridge code calibration, bridge 

management systems, and life-cycle cost analysis for bridges.” This text is targeted 

toward engineers, consultants, and those involved in research and development. 

3.1.37 Garcia, Mary Lynn. The Design and Evaluation of Physical Protection 

Systems. Boston, MA: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2001. 

This text book is a guide to security system design and integration. It emphasizes 

“component performance measures” to establish security effectiveness and provides a 

process for estimating security performance against threats. The contents of this text 

include the design and evaluation of physical security systems, target identification, 

alarm assessment, and risk assessment. The fundamental principles presented in this text 

were the base for the security risk assessment methodologies at Sandia National 

Laboratories (see reference 2.2.16 on page 19). 

3.1.38 Grance, Tim, Joan Hash, Marc Stevens, Kristofor O’Neal, Nadya Bartol, and 

Robert Young. Guide to Information Technology Security Services: 

Recommendations of the National Institute of Standards and Technology. 

Special Publication 800-35. Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of 

Standards and Technology, October 2002. 

URL: http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/nistpubs/800-35/NIST-SP800-35.pdf 

This NIST publication is a guide to selecting, implementing, and managing IT security 

services. It discusses six phases of IT security services life cycle. Phase 1 evaluates the 

need for investigating an IT security service and determines if it will improve their 

security program. In Phase 2 the organization evaluates the current environment and 

identifies viable solutions. Phase 3 is the decision process, and Phase 4 is the 

implementation process. Phase 5 ensures that the operation is successful, and phase 6 is 

the end of the IT service. 

3.1.39 Grossi, Patricia, Howard Kunreuther, and Chandu C. Patel. Catastrophe 

Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk. New York, NY: Springer 

Science and Business Media, 2005. 

This text uses the knowledge of a number of experts to analyze how catastrophe models 

can be used to assess and manage the risks of natural disasters. Three leading catastrophe 

modeling firms were involved in the development of this book: AIR Worldwide (see 

43
reference 2.2.2 on page 15), EQECAT (see reference 3.2.7 on page 57), and Risk 

Management Solutions (see reference 2.1.22 on page 14). Dennis Kuzak and Tom Larsen 

from EQECAT present models for insurance rates. It includes discussions on actuarial 

principles, catastrophe models, differentiation of risk, and rate setting procedures. 

Weimin Dong and Patricia Grossi from Risk Management Solutions present a section on 

insurance portfolio management. It discusses portfolio composition, exceedance 

probability, uncertainty, and risk. David Lalonde from Air Worldwide presents a section 

on risk financing that includes discussions on probable maximum loss, level of risk, risk 

transfer, and the cost of risk transfer. There are several other sections presented in this 

text that include discussions on catastrophe models and insurance, natural hazard risk 

assessment, uncertainty, risk financing, risk management strategies, and risk transfer. The 

final chapter discusses the use of catastrophe modeling being applied to terrorism. 

3.1.40 Hicks and Associates Incorporated. National Technology Plan for Emergency 

Response to Catastrophic Terrorism. National Memorial Institute for the 

Prevention of Terrorism, April 2004. 

URL: http://www.mipt.org/pdf/Project-Responder-National-Technology-Plan.pdf 

This document published by MIPT (see reference 3.3.2.11 on page 67) focuses on 

“preventing and deterring terrorism or mitigating its effects.” It focuses on technology 

development in response to terrorist risks. Topics include the following items: personal 

protection and equipment; detection, identification and assessment; response and 

recovery; communications; emergency management preparations and planning; 

biological events; medical response; criminal investigations; and mitigation. The 

publication discusses the capabilities, limitations, and goals for each topic. It also 

discusses research and current projects that are being conducted on each topic. 

3.1.41 Institute for Business and Home Safety. 

URL: http://www.ibhs.org 

Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries, property damage, and economic loss, the Institute 

for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) produces numerous publications. They address 

home safety issues involving earthquakes, floods, hail, tornados, and other disasters. In 

2005, the Institute for Business & Home Safety published Open for Business as a guide 

for business owners to prepare for and react to disasters. The IBHS document notes that 

the threat of a disaster-related closure is especially great for small and mid-sized 

businesses because they lack the financial resources for recovery and risk mitigation, 

ready access to alternative suppliers, and other advantages that most large organizations 

possess. The IBHS website provides lists and check lists for business and home owners to 

prepare against disasters. It includes the following topics: earthquakes, flood, freezing 

weather, hail, hurricane, tornado, water damage, wildfire, fortification, maintenance, 

recovery, land use, business protection, disaster safety, and reports of IBHS. Most of the 

articles within each topic are two or three page brochures on protecting and preparing for 

disasters. 

44
3.1.42 International Association of Earthquake Engineering. Regulations for 

Seismic Design – A world List 2004. Tokyo: International Association for 

Earthquake Engineering, 2004. 

URL: http://www.iaee.or.jp/ 

The International Association of Earthquake Engineering (IAEE) collaborates researchers 

of earthquake engineering through an exchange of knowledge and ideas. Their website 

contains the publication Regulations for Seismic Design; it lists earthquake designs for 

over 50 countries. This document can be purchased through IAEE on CD or in print. 

3.1.43 International Code Council. 

URL: http://www.iccsafe.org

The International Code Council (ICC) protects the health, safety, and welfare of people 

through safety and performance standards. The ICC is a nonprofit organization that was 

established in 1994 by the Building Officials and Code Administrators International, Inc. 

(BOCA), International Conference of Building Officials (ICBO), and Southern Building 

Code Congress International, Inc. (SBCCI). It was established in order to standardize the 

nation’s code system, to eliminate redundancy, and to optimize the resources of code 

officials. It also offers a number of services: code application assistance, educational 

programs, certification programs, plan reviews, and training. The following publications 

are produced by the ICC: International Building Code, International Residential Code for 

One and Two Family Dwellings, International Plumbing Code, International Mechanical 

Code, International Fire Code, International Property Maintenance Code, International 

Existing Building Code, International Fuel Gas Code, International Energy Conservation 

Code, International Wild land Urban Interface Code, International Zoning Code, 

International Private Sewage Disposal Code, and the ICC Electrical Code Administrative 

Provisions. 

3.1.44 International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). 

URL: http://www.unisdr.org/ 

The International Strategy for Disaster Reduction is an entity of the United Nations. Their 

website contains data, statistics, information, and a library on the effect and occurrence of 

disasters. The information is categorized by country or type of disaster. The library has an 

online searchable catalogue, but the texts are not available to view online. Many of the 

statistics on the website are in graphical form, but the raw data is available from EMDAT (see resource 2.3.1.28). The ISDR website has an online library that is helpful for 

finding information and data. It contains a list of bibliographies, acquisitions, and 

clearinghouses among other things. 

45
3.1.45 Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for 

Antiterrorism. Joint Pub 3-07.2. Joint Chiefs of Staff, March 17, 1998. 

URL: http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/dod/jp3_07_2.pdf 

Joint Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Antiterrorism delineates national policy 

and general objectives relating to antiterrorism. The document explains department of 

defense and U.S. government agency command and control relationships. It provides 

useful tactics, techniques, and procedures in U.S. antiterrorism operations. The targeted 

audience for this document is the armed forces. However, it provides useful ideas and 

information on antiterrorism tactics for the public and private sector. 

3.1.46 Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. 

URL: http://www.bepress.com/jhsem/ 

The Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management is a publication of the 

Berkeley Electronic Press. The journal was first published in 2004 and addresses various 

topics associated with homeland security. 

3.1.47 Marshall, Harold E., Robert E. Chapman, and Chi J. Leng. “Risk Mitigation 

Plan for Optimizing Protection of Constructed Facilities.” Cost Engineering. 

Vol. 46, No. 8 (August 2004) 26. 

This article describes a three-step protocol for satisfying the need to optimize protection 

against natural and man-made hazards. Step 1 is to “assess the risk of uncertain, costly, 

man-made and natural hazards, including terrorism, floods, earthquakes, and fire.” Step 2 

includes the identification of risk mitigation strategies that reduce the expected value of 

damages from such events. In step 3 one evaluates the “life-cycle economic 

effectiveness” of each of the strategies. 

3.1.48 McEntire, David A, Robie Jack Robinson, and Richard T Weber. Managing 

the Threat of Terrorism. Washington DC: International City/County 

Management Association, 2002. 

This report discusses the actions that communities can take to prevent, prepare, and 

respond to a terrorist attack. Issues include attention to emergency response, security, 

protecting the scene for investigation, and management. 

3.1.49 Mileti, Dennis. Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the 

United States. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press, 1999. 

This text was developed from the second national assessment of natural and related 

technological hazards and disasters. It discusses the development of a sustainable 

mitigation plan for natural hazards including land-use management, building codes, 

insurance, forecasting, and engineering. The text also discusses disaster response and 

preparedness along with the recovery process. The text is aimed at a general audience 

that includes policymakers and researchers. 

46
3.1.50 Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research. 

URL: http://mceer.buffalo.edu/ 

This organization develops and promotes the use of technology to reduce earthquakes. It 

provides technical reports of current research, distributes a bulletin, and produces 

publications on earthquake codes. The website has information on bridges and roads as 

well as buildings and structures. A yearly technical report of current research is available 

to subscribers. 

3.1.51 Nadel, Barbara A. Building Security: Handbook for Architectural Planning 

and Design. United States: McGraw Hill, 2004. 

This text is a handbook of security measures for constructed facilities. It begins with a 

discussion of the lessons learned from September 11, 2001 and other major events. Part 2 

of the text details the planning and design of different types of facilities and facility 

issues. Part 3 details the engineering of buildings for security. In Part 4 construction cost 

estimating and emergency response is discussed. Technology and materials are discussed 

in Part 5 and codes and liabilities are discussed in Part 6. This text is non-technical in 

nature. 

3.1.52 National Academies: Federal Facilities Council 

URL: http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ffc/index.html 

The Federal Facilities Council at the National Academies is a “cooperative association of 

25 federal agencies with interests and responsibilities related to all aspects of facility 

design, acquisition, management, maintenance, and evaluation.” A number of reports and 

publications related to facilities can be purchased through their website. 

3.1.53 National Association of Home Builders Research Center. ToolBase Services. 

URL: http://www.toolbase.org 

ToolBase Services is a homebuilding website for “technical information on building 

products, materials, new technologies, business management, and housing systems.” 

Within the site is the PATH Technology Inventory, which is a database of housing 

technologies. It includes plumbing, HVAC systems, energy efficient lighting, storm 

resistant roofing, and other technologies. Each section includes a description of a selected 

set of technologies, their cost, ease of use, energy efficiency, quality/durability, 

environmental performance, and whether they mitigate against disasters. It also describes 

the development stage of each technology. Within the ToolBase website are 

recommendations for homeowners to mitigate natural disasters. 

47
3.1.54 National Capital Planning Commission. Designing for Security in the Nation’s 

Capital. Washington DC: NCPC, October 2001. 

URL: http://www.ncpc.gov/planning_init/security/DesigningSec.pdf 

This text describes the interim security measures that were necessary following 

September 11, 2001. It describes design solutions for Pennsylvania Avenue and its 

impact on historic resources, traffic, and the downtown economy. 

3.1.55 National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). 

URL: http://www.nehrp.gov/ 

This program was established by the Federal Government to reduce the risk of loss 

caused by earthquakes. Four agencies are involved in the program: the Federal 

Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Institute of Standards and 

Technology (NIST), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the United States 

Geological Survey (USGS). The NEHRP website provides a list of resources and a 

number of publications, which include FEMA 356 (see reference 3.1.9 on page 35) and 

FEMA 450 (see reference 3.1.12 on page 36). The former is a publication concerning the 

seismic rehabilitation of buildings, and the later concerns recommended seismic 

regulations for new buildings and structures. 

3.1.56 National Fire Protection Association. Standard on Disaster/Emergency 

Management and Business Continuity Programs. NFPA 1600. Quincy, MA: 

National Fire Protection Association, 2004. 

URL: http://www.nfpa.org/assets/files/PDF/NFPA1600.pdf

The National Fire Protection Association 2004 edition of NFPA 1600, Standard on 

Disaster/Emergency Management and Business Continuity Programs establishes a 

common set of criteria for disaster management, emergency management, and business 

continuity programs. The standard provides those individuals with the responsibility for 

disaster and emergency management and business continuity programs the criteria to 

assess current programs or develop a program to prepare for disasters. 

3.1.57 National Fire Protection Association and Society of Fire Protection 

Engineers. SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering. 3rd edition. 

Quincy, MA: National Fire Protection Association, 2002. 

This text contains hundreds of pages of technically detailed information for the design 

and performance of fire protection engineering. It discusses mechanics of fluids, 

conduction of heat, convection heat transfer, radiation heat transfer, thermo chemistry, 

and structural mechanics among other things. This text is intended for use by building 

code officials, building owners, fire officials, engineers, and architects. 

48
3.1.58 National Incident Management System (NIMS). 

URL: http://www.nimsonline.com/ 

The National Incident Management System (NIMS) was developed by the Department of 

Homeland Security and is the first set of standardized processes and procedures for 

emergency responders. It provides standard organizational structure, training, 

qualifications, equipment, and management. 

3.1.59 National Information Service for Earthquake Engineering. 

URL: http://nisee.berkeley.edu/ 

The National Information Service for Earthquake Engineering provides basic descriptions 

and photos of structural designs along with descriptions of earthquake phenomena. 

Topics include ground failure, ground shaking, solutions, foundations, superstructure, 

construction, related research, and historical earthquakes. 

3.1.60 National Institute for Occupational Safety. Guidance for Protecting Building 

Environments from Airborne Chemical, Biological, or Radiological Attacks.

Cincinnati, OH: National Institute for Occupational Safety, 2002. 

URL: http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/bldvent/pdfs/2002-139.pdf 

This publication provides methods to mitigate and prepare for a chemical, biological, or 

radiological attack. It discusses physical security, things not to do, ventilation, filtration, 

maintenance, administration, and training. The target audience includes owners, 

managers and maintenance personnel of both publicly and privately owned buildings. It 

does not address high risk facilities such as military or law enforcement facilities. 

3.1.61 National Institute of Building Sciences. 

URL: http://www.nibs.org/ 

The National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) is an interface between the 

government and the private sector. Its goals are to “improve the building regulatory 

environment; facilitate the introduction of new and existing products and technology into 

the building process; and disseminate nationally recognized technical and regulatory 

information. NIBS played a role in the development of HAZUS-MH (see reference 2.2.7

on page 16) and provides the Whole Building Design Guide (see reference 3.1.62 on page 

49). Their website contains publications on asbestos control, lead hazards, construction 

metrication, the environment, and school facilities. 

3.1.62 National Institute of Building Sciences. “Whole Building Design Guide.” 

URL: http://www.wbdg.org/ 

The Whole Building Design Guide is an internet source provided by the National 

Institute of Building Sciences that provides a significant amount of information on 

building design. It is organized into two categories-Design Guidance and Project 

Management. Within Design Guidance there are five subcategories: (1) Building Types; 

49
(2) Space Types; (3) Design Disciplines; (4) Design Objectives; and (5) Products and 

Systems. There are four subcategories for Project Management: Delivery Teams, 

Planning and Development, Building Commissioning, and Delivery and Controls. Each 

subcategory is broken into subjects that have detailed information and lists of resources. 

It addresses specific types of buildings (e.g., hospitals, youth centers, libraries, schools, 

office buildings, research facilities, and more) and provides information on codes, 

standards, and other design criteria. 

3.1.63 National Institute of Standards and Technology: Building and Fire Research 

Laboratory. Best Practices for Project Security. NIST GCR 04-865. July 2004. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/publications/gcrs/04865.pdf 

This NIST report complements Implementing Project Security Practices developed by 

the Construction Industry Institute (see reference 3.1.14 on page 37). It determines the 

best practices for project security of industrial projects and provides assistance in 

transitioning from security research to implementation. This report is most appropriate 

for those who are managing security issues from the very initial phases of building design 

to the final stages of construction. 

3.1.64 National Institute of Standards and Technology: Electronics and Electrical 

Engineering Laboratory: Office of Law Enforcement Standards. 

URL: http://www.eeel.nist.gov/oles/ 

The Office of Law Enforcement Standards (OLES) develops performance standards that 

ensure the development of safe, dependable, and effective equipment for law 

enforcement. One issue that OLES is addressing is public safety communication 

standards. Law enforcement officials and emergency responders face difficult challenges 

in communicating during a large scale response. Other areas of research include chemical 

systems, inspection technologies, weapons and protective systems, and forensic science 

issues. 

3.1.65 National Research Council. ISC Security Design Criteria for New Federal 

Office Buildings and Major Modernization Projects. Washington DC: National 

Academy Press, 2003. 

This text provides expertise in architecture, structural engineering, blast-effects 

mitigation, mechanical engineering, security, risk management, and other building related 

knowledge in order to identify “aesthetically appealing architectural solutions that 

achieve both security and physical protection.” This text primarily focuses on blast 

effects and blast mitigation. 

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3.1.66 National Research Council. Protecting People and Buildings from Terrorism: 

Technology Transfer for Blast-Effects Mitigation. Washington DC: National 

Academy Press, 2001. 

This publication discusses the vulnerability of U.S. civilian and military personnel to 

terrorist attacks. Directed by Congress, the Department of Defense conducted a 

comprehensive research and testing program to further knowledge on protecting people 

and buildings from terrorist bomb attacks. The program was called the Blast Mitigation 

for Structures Program (BMSP). This publication reviews the BMSP program and 

discusses the dissemination of the knowledge gained from it. 

3.1.67 National Research Council: Committee on Science and Technology for 

Countering Terrorism. Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and 

Technology in Countering Terrorism. Washington DC: National Academy 

Press, 2002. 

This publication provides technical approaches to mitigating vulnerabilities to terrorism. 

It addresses nuclear, radiological, biological, explosive, and chemical threats to public 

health, agriculture, infrastructure, transportation, and other systems. For each topic it 

provides recommendations on how to apply existing technology to mitigate terrorism and 

how to start research that extends the nations future capabilities. 

3.1.68 National Science and Technology Council, Committee on Environment and 

Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction. Grand Challenges 

for Disaster Reduction. Washington, DC: Executive office of the President, 

June 2005. 

URL: http://www.sdr.gov/workinggroups.html 

This publication discusses six challenges to disaster reduction: provide hazard and 

disaster information; understand the natural processes that produce hazards; develop 

hazard mitigation strategies and technologies; recognize and reduce vulnerability of 

interdependent critical infrastructure; assess disaster resilience using standard methods; 

and promote risk-wise behavior. The document discusses each of these challenges and a 

framework for action. 

3.1.69 Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. 

URL: http://peer.berkeley.edu/index.html

The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) is an entity of the National 

Science Foundation’s (NSF) program to reduce earthquake losses. It primarily conducts 

research on performance engineering to prevent damage caused by earthquakes. PEER 

has nine institutions each located in a university setting. Their website contains scientific 

information on material and structural strength and performance in an earthquake. The 

mother site for NSF is the Engineering Research Center Association (http://www.ercassoc.org/). 

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3.1.70 Persily, Andy. “Building Ventilation and Pressurization as a Security Tool.” 

ASHRAE Journal. Vol. 46, No. 9. September 2004. 

This article discusses the impact of ventilation on the vulnerability of buildings in the 

event of a chemical, biological, or radiological attack. Increased indoor air pressure 

above outdoor air pressure has been advocated by a number of organizations to thwart an 

outdoor release. This article gives particular attention to the air tightness of the building 

envelope. Many buildings do not have the air tightness required to be effective against an 

outdoor release. It discusses the fact that this method is only effective against materials 

that can be filtered out of the air intake of the ventilation system. Shelter in place is also 

discussed in this article. 

3.1.71 Schiff, Anshel J. Guide to Improved Earthquake Performance of Electric 

Power Systems. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 1999. 

This text discusses methods to improve electric power systems in the event of a seismic 

event. It discusses at length the failure of high-voltage substations, because this is where 

most power system damage occurs. 

3.1.72 The Infrastructure Security Partnership. 

URL: http://www.tisp.org/

The Infrastructure Security Partnership (TISP) is a public-private partnership that 

promotes collaboration to improve the infrastructure against natural and man-made 

disasters. TISP was created following September 11, 2001 by eleven organizations. It 

now has over 180 organizations, and membership is open to U.S. based government, 

professional, and research organizations. TISP hosts security workshops and an annual 

congress on “Infrastructure security for the Built Environment (ISBE).” They have a 

monthly e-newsletter as well as a comprehensive website that contains a list of their 

publications. 

3.1.73 United States Army Corps of Engineers. 

URL: http://www.usace.army.mil/

The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) provides engineering for civil 

works, military facilities, and construction management for various federal agencies. 

Their website provides useful information for locations with extreme conditions. 

However, increased security has caused some of the research conducted by the USACE 

to be classified. 

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3.1.74 United States Department of Defense. “DoD Minimum Antiterrorism 

Standards for Buildings.” UFC 4-010-01. United States Department of 

Defense, July 31, 2002. 

URL: http://www.tisp.org/files/pdf/dodstandards.pdf

On July 31, 2002, the Department of Defense (DoD) published a Uniform Facilities 

Criteria (UFC), “DoD Minimum Antiterrorism Standards for Buildings.” The objective of 

these criteria is to improve the survival of DoD personnel from terrorist attacks. Although 

the UFC system applies primarily to military departments, the criteria identify and 

highlight several key aspects of site planning, structural design, architectural design, and 

electrical and mechanical design that play a role in protecting buildings from explosives 

threats. The criteria apply to construction projects beginning in FY 2004, new leases in 

FY 2006, and lease renewals by FY 2010. They provide an example of explicit tradeoffs 

between two approaches to improving survival from a terrorist attack on a constructed 

facility: setback distance and structural hardening. DoD focuses on minimum setback 

distance as their primary approach which separates it from the General Services 

Administration (GSA) and the Department of State. 

3.1.75 United States Department of Homeland Security. 

URL: http://www.dhs.gov 

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is given the responsibility of addressing 

safe transportation, research, and protection from threats, emergencies, and disasters. 

DHS has a six point agenda: (1) Increase overall preparedness, particularly for 

catastrophic events; (2) Create better transportation security systems to move people and 

cargo more securely and efficiently; (3) Strengthen border security and interior 

enforcement and reform immigration processes; (4) Enhance information sharing with 

our partners; (5) Improve DHS financial management, human resource development, 

procurement and information technology; and (6) Realign the DHS organization to 

maximize mission performance. DHS sponsored the RAMCAP document discussed in 

reference 2.1.4 and provides education support for homeland security issues 

(http://hsdec.org/). It also established the Homeland Security Digital Library, which is a 

database of publications related to homeland security (see reference in Appendix B:26 on 

page 121). 

3.1.76 United States Department of Homeland Security. Guidance on Aligning 

Strategies with the National Preparedness Goal. July 22, 2005. 

URL: www.ojp.usdoj.gov/odp/docs/StrategyGuidance_22JUL2005.pdf

This publication discusses the implementation of many of the Homeland Security 

Presidential Directives in Appendix C:3. Topics include the National Incident 

Management System (see reference 3.1.58 on page 49), National Response Plan (see 

Appendix C:32), National Infrastructure Protection Plan (see Appendix C:31), 

information sharing, communication, and weapons detection. The article provides 

additional Internet sites on many of the topics. 

53
3.1.77 United States Department of Homeland Security: Office of state and Local 

Government Preparedness. Target Capabilities List. Washington, DC: United 

States Department of Homeland Security, May 23, 2005. 

URL: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/odp/docs/TCL1_1.pdf

Homeland Security Presidential Directive 8 established the Secretary of Homeland 

Security as the principal official coordinating hazard preparedness in the U.S. The 

secretary gave this responsibility to the Executive Director of the Office of State and 

Local Government Coordination and Preparedness. From these proceedings came the 

Universal Task List: Version 1.1. It develops 36 capabilities required to accomplish 

essential tasks that minimize property damage, injuries, and loss of life along with 

mitigating property damage. Federal, state, and local governing entities will be expected 

to develop and maintain these capabilities according to their relative ability. 

3.1.78 United States Department of Homeland Security: Office of State and Local 

Government Coordination and Preparedness. Universal Task List: Version 

2.1. United States Department of Homeland Security, May 23, 2005. 

URL: www.ojp.usdoj.gov/odp/docs/UTL2_1.pdf

The Department of Homeland Security’s Office of state and Local Government 

Coordination and Preparedness established this Universal Task List (UTL) in order to 

support the national preparedness goal “to engage federal, state, local, and tribal entities, 

their private and non-governmental partners, and the general public to achieve and 

sustain risk-based target levels of capability to prevent, protect against, respond to, and 

recover from major events in order to minimize the impact on lives, property, and the 

economy.” It does not specify what government entities are responsible for performing 

these tasks. The UTL is a “living” document that will be revised as each of the tasks are 

implemented. 

3.1.79 United States Department of Homeland Security. “Ready.gov.” 

URL: http://www.ready.gov 

Ready.gov is a website of the Department of Homeland Security that provides 

information on disaster preparation for American businesses and citizens to lessen the 

effect of a disaster or emergency. It answers questions such as: where should I go in an 

earthquake, what should I do in case of a fire, and what equipment should be on hand. 

Since this site targets private individuals, statistical data is beyond the scope of this 

resource. 

3.1.80 United States General Services Administration. Facilities Standards for the 

Public Buildings Service. P100. March 2005. 

URL: http://www.gsa.gov/Portal/gsa/ep/home.do?tabId=1 

This text establishes building standards for new buildings and building alterations in the 

Public Buildings Service (PBS) of the General Services Administration (GSA). It has 

54
“policy and technical criteria to be used in the programming, design, and documentation 

of GSA buildings.” 

3.1.81 United States Government Accountability Office. “Homeland Security: 

Actions Needed to Better Protect National Icons and Federal Office Buildings 

from Terrorism.” GAO-050790. Washington, DC: United States Government 

Accountability Office, June 2005. 

URL: www.gao.gov/new.items/d05790.pdf 

This government publication, which was produced by the Government Accountability 

Office (GAO), identifies and discusses the challenges that the Department of the Interior 

faces in protecting national icons and monuments from terrorism while maintaining 

public access. This publication also identifies the challenges that the General Services 

Administration (GSA) faces in protecting federal office buildings that it owns or leases. 

Actions that the GSA has taken are discussed along with further recommendations. GAO 

recommended that the Department of the Interior “link the results of its risk assessments 

and related risk rankings to its funding priorities and also to develop guiding principles 

for balancing security initiatives with Interior’s core mission.” It recommended that GSA 

“establish a mechanism-such as a chief security officer position or formal point of 

contact-so it is better equipped to address security related matters.” This document can be 

accessed through the GAO: http://www.gao.gov. 

3.2 Risk Management Software 

3.2.1 AIR. 

URL: http://www.air-worldwide.com

See reference 2.2.2 (page 15) 

3.2.2 Autodesk. 

URL: http://usa.autodesk.com 

Although Autodesk is not customized for disaster mitigation applications, its features are 

suitable for formulating and designing risk mitigation strategies. It provides several 

software products: Autodesk Inventor, Autodesk AutoCAD Revit Series, Autodesk DWF 

Composer, AutoCAD, Autodesk Map3D, and Autodesk MotionBuilder. These products 

are useful resources for designing, managing, and constructing buildings and 

infrastructure. They provide tools for computer animation, CAD (computer-aided design) 

and GIS (geographic information system) integration, and the coordination of 

construction documentation. Autodesk is the creator of the DWG file format, which is 

commonly used in other CAD software. 

55
3.2.3 BALFOUR Technologies LLC. FourDscape. 

URL: http://www.bal4.com/ 

Although FourDscape is not customized for disaster mitigation applications, its features 

are suitable for formulating and designing risk mitigation strategies. This software 

package enables users to “visually integrate and analyze multi-dimensional data flows in 

a collaborative environment.” The user can edit and view a 3D construction project as it 

develops over time. The FourDscape software has been used for design coordination, 

construction staging, and project and public communications to analyze airports, traffic, 

and transit systems. 

3.2.4 Bentley Systems. MicroStation. 

URL: http://www.bentley.com 

Although MicroStation is not customized for disaster mitigation applications, its features 

are suitable for formulating and designing risk mitigation strategies. It is a software 

package produced by Bentley Systems that is used by a number of transportation 

departments for the design, construction, and operation of infrastructural entities. It 

provides 3D modeling, workgroup productivity development, design animations, and 

supports the DGN and DWG file formats. Bentley Systems also produces ProjectWise, 

which coordinates information and data in order to reduce costs and shorten project 

schedules. 

3.2.5 BMS Solutions. 

URL: http://www.bmssolutions.com/ 

Although BMS Solutions is not customized for disaster mitigation applications, its 

software features are suitable for formulating and designing risk mitigation strategies. It 

provides management software for financial, manufacturing, and government entities in 

order to manage health, safety, environmental, and risk issues. 

3.2.6 Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). Consequences Assessment Tool 

Set (CATS). 

URL: http://cats.saic.com/index.html OR 

http://www.dtra.mil/press_resources/fact_sheets/fs_includes/cats-jace.cfm 

The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) includes a consequence management 

tool that combines hazard prediction, consequence analysis, management tools, the 

Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) system, and population and 

infrastructure data in a GIS system. The software uses real-time weather data and other 

databases to assess the effects of natural disasters as well as man-made hazards. For 

example, it can predict tidal surges, contamination trajectory, and earthquake damage. It 

can provide optimal roadblock locations, create scenarios for training and planning, and 

create contingency plans with its population and infrastructure data. Similar to FEMA’s 

HAZUS software, this program requires ESRI’s Arc GIS software for mapping. The user 

manual is available online at https://www.hsdl.org/homesec/docs/dtic/ADA423521.pdf, 

56
and the program is currently available to federal, state, and local government 

organizations. CATS along with other DTRA add in software are among the primary 

modeling software products used by emergency responders and other government entities 

to model hazards. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) offers training courses 

for CATS and other software through the Assessment of Catastrophic Events Center 

(ACECenter): https://acecenter.cnttr.dtra.mil/acecenter/_login.cfm. One must apply for a 

password to access their site. 

3.2.7 EQECAT. 

URL: http://www.eqecat.com/ 

EQECAT provides risk management software for the insurance industry. 

WORLDCATenterprise is their primary product that provides hazard coverage for 88 

countries and allows insurers to assess natural hazard risk exposure. 

3.2.8 Intergraph. SmartPlant Review. 

URL: http://ppm.intergraph.com/visualization/sp_review.asp 

Although SmartPlant Review is not customized for disaster mitigation applications, its 

features are suitable for formulating and designing risk mitigation strategies. It is a 

software product that provides a 3D visualization tool for the review of process and 

power plants during engineering, construction, and maintenance. 

3.2.9 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Building Life Cycle 

Cost. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/info/software.html

See reference 4.1.3.3 (page 90) 

3.2.10 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Cost Effectiveness 

Software Tool. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/info/software.html

See reference 4.1.3.4 (page 91) 

3.2.11 Tec-Com Incorporated. RiskWorld. 

URL: http://www.riskworld.com/ 

See reference 2.2.18 (page 20) 

3.3 Guidance Documents for Estimating Costs and Losses 

3.3.1 Mitigation Costs 

57
3.3.1.1 American Re, 2006. 

URL: http://www.amre.com/ 

See reference in Appendix B:1 (page 117) 

3.3.1.2 Amos, Scott. Skills and Knowledge of Cost Engineering. 5th Edition. 

Morgantown, WV: AACE International, 2004. 

This text is a reference guide on “cost estimating, planning and scheduling, progress and 

cost control, project management, economic analysis, [and] risk.” It is developed by the 

Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE), which publishes the 

monthly Cost Engineering Journal. It provides certification as a Certified Cost Engineer 

(CCE) or Certified Cost Consultant (CCC), which is accredited by the Council of 

Engineering and Scientific Specialty Boards (CESB). 

3.3.1.3 Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering. 

URL: http://www.aacei.org/ 

The Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) publishes the 

monthly Cost Engineering Journal and provides certification as a Certified Cost Engineer 

(CCE) or Certified Cost Consultant (CCC). The CCE and CCC are accredited by the 

Council of Engineering and Scientific Specialty Boards (CESB). 

3.3.1.4 Bledsoe, John D. Successful Estimating Methods. Kensington, MA: RS 

Means Company, 1992. 

This guide is a tool to improve analysis skills of claims, life cycle costs, and uncertainty 

evaluation. It discusses the basics of estimating and issues beyond the basics. Some of the 

topics include types of estimates, tools, data sources, methods, “ballpark” estimates, 

square foot estimates, conceptual estimates, automated estimates, cycle time analysis, and 

life cycle cost analysis. 

3.3.1.5 BOMA International. Experience Exchange Report. Washington, DC: 

BOMA International, 2006. 

URL: http://www.boma.org/ 

This publication provides benchmarking income and expense data for commercial 

buildings in a number of U.S. cities. Figures in this publication include administrative 

expenses, building hours, cleaning expenses, parking income, office area income, 

occupancy, rentable square feet, repairs and maintenance, road expenses, security 

expenses, square foot per office worker, operating expenses, and year-end rent. 

Experience Exchange Report can be purchased in print or electronic version from the 

BOMA International website. 

58
3.3.1.6 Construction Management Economics. 

URL: http://www.routledge.com/

This refereed journal is published monthly by Routledge and contains research on the 

management and economics of building and civil engineering. It can be purchased online 

monthly in electronic format or quarterly in a hard copy. 

3.3.1.7 Design Cost Data. Monterey, CA: ISI Publications. 

URL: http://www.dcd.com/ 

This bimonthly periodical provides construction costs for cost estimating. Their website 

provides a National Historical Building Cost Database to its subscribers, which contains 

1 200 actual projects with the costs broken down into CSI MasterFormat. 

3.3.1.8 Engineering News Record. 

URL: http://www.enr.com/ 

The Engineering News Record (ENR) provides business and technical news on the 

construction industry. It discusses and provides data on new technology, markets, costs, 

regulations, equipment, materials, and covers construction news from around the world. 

Articles are available for purchase through their website or free to ENR members. 

3.3.1.9 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Second Report on Costs and 

Benefits of Natural Hazard Mitigation. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency 

Management Agency, August 1998. 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/pdf/library/haz_pbo.pdf

This FEMA publication contains case studies of organizations that benefited from natural 

hazard mitigation. Warner Brothers Studios, BellSouth, Hewlett-Packard Company, and 

other major businesses conducted natural hazard mitigation and saved millions of dollars 

after enduring a natural hazard. 

3.3.1.10 Federal Highway Administration. Meeting the Customer’s Needs for 

Mobility and Safety during Construction and Maintenance Operations. HPQ 

– 98 – 1. Washington, DC: United States Department of Transportation, 

September 1998. 

URL: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/bestprac.pdf

An important concern for construction is the redirection of traffic; congestion costs were 

estimated to be $51 billion in 1993. This publication discusses the safe and efficient flow 

of traffic through construction zones, which can have a significant impact on a local 

economy. 

59
3.3.1.11 Frank R. Walker Company. Walker’s Building Estimator’s Reference Book. 

Chicago, IL: Frank R. Walker Company. 

URL: http://www.frankrwalker.com/ 

This text provides building costs, labor productivity, and material quantities along with 

the tools needed to make construction cost estimates. It is organized in CSI format (see 

MasterFormat in reference 4.1.2.30) and discusses construction techniques, types of 

material, and application rates. 

3.3.1.12 Godschalk, David R., Timothy Beatley, Philip Berke, David J. Brower, 

Edward J. Kaiser, Charles C. Bohl, and R. Matthew Goebel. Natural 

Hazard Mitigation. Washington, DC: Island Press, 1999. 

See reference Appendix C:7 (page 124) 

3.3.1.13 International Trade Administration. U.S. Industry & Trade Outlook. 

URL: http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/industry/otea/outlook/index.html 

The International Trade Administration (ITA) is a part of the Department of Commerce. 

It provides information on international markets, protects the U.S. from unfair 

competition, and ensures access to international markets. The U.S. Industry & Trade 

Outlook is an industry-by-industry overview of the U.S. economy. It provides historical 

data on shipments, imports, exports, and employment along with industry trends, 

technology, and international competition. This publication provides one, two, and five 

year forecasts of each industry. 

3.3.1.14 Lufkin, Peter S., and Robert M. Silsbee. The Whitestone Building 

Maintenance and Repair Cost Reference 2005-2006. Seattle, WA: Whitestone 

Research, 2005. 

This text is a source of building maintenance and repair cost statistics. It provides costs to 

maintain a building over its service life, inflation of construction costs, location cost 

adjustments, and information on the expected lifetime of a building. This text also 

provides a 50-year cost profiles for individual buildings. 

3.3.1.15 Munich Re Group. 

URL: http://www.munichre.com/

See reference 3.3.2.10 (page 66) 

3.3.1.16 Owen, David D. Building Security: Strategies & Costs. Kingston, MA: Reed 

Construction Data, 2003. 

In 2003, RS Means published Building Security: Strategies & Costs as a text to assist 

building owners and managers assess risk and vulnerability to their buildings, develop 

emergency response plans, and make choices about protective measures and designs. 

60
Building Security also includes pricing information for multiple security-related 

components, systems, and equipment, as well as the labor required for installation. In 

addition to materials and equipment, the cost data also includes information about other 

security and prevention measures such as command (guard) dogs, exterior plants, and 

planters. 

3.3.1.17 Ritz, George J. Total Construction Project Management. United States: 

McGraw-Hill, 1994. 

Total construction Project Management provides information on preparing bids and 

proposals, project planning, scheduling, budgeting, and organization. This text presents a 

“total systems approach” to construction management. It also discusses construction 

safety and health, communications, and the application of computers. 

3.3.1.18 RS Means. 

URL: http://www.rsmeans.com/

RS Means provides a significant amount of cost data for buildings and other structures, 

which can be used to estimate project costs. Their publications include the following 

titles: Mechanical Cost Data, Plumbing Cost Data, Electrical Cost Data, Facilities 

Maintenance & Repair Cost Data, Repair and Remodeling Cost Data, Facilities 

Construction Cost Data, Residential Cost Data, Commercial Cost Data, Site Work & 

Landscape Cost Data, Open Shop Building Construction Cost Data, Heavy Construction 

Cost Data, Interior Cost Data, Concrete & Masonry Cost Data, Labor Rates for the 

Construction Industry, and Means City Cost Data. These publications can be ordered on 

RS Means’ website: http://www.rsmeans.com/. RS Means also provides a software 

program that allows the user to view and automatically update data (see reference 3.4.7

on page 72). 

3.3.1.19 RS Means. Building Construction Cost Data. Kingston, MA: RS Means. 

Building Construction Cost Data provides a resource of cost data for individual costs of 

material, labor, equipment, and a crew associated with building construction. It provides 

historical cost indexes and location factors that affect the cost of building construction. 

The information on current costs is detailed to a particular type of a certain material. For 

instance, the cost of a particular type of concrete material or the cost of loading dock 

equipment is included in the data. 

3.3.1.20 RS Means. Means Square Foot Costs. Kingston, MA. RS Means. 

This publication provides square foot costs for 100 structures and for thousands of 

modifications that can be used to make quick cost estimations. There is both a residential 

and commercial section. The residential section provides costs for four classes of 

construction in seven building types. The commercial section provides costs for 72 model 

buildings. In a separate section, costs are broken into “assemblies” for more detailed 

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estimates. The assemblies section is broken into substructure, shell, interiors, services, 

equipment and furnishings, special construction, and building site work. 

3.3.1.21 RS Means. Unit Price Estimating Methods. 3rd Edition. 

URL: http://www.rsmeans.com/ 

This text is a guide for preparing unit cost estimates. It begins by discussing four estimate 

types: order of magnitude, square foot and cubic foot, assemblies, and unit price 

estimates. The chapters that follow discuss quantity takeoff, pricing, bid scheduling, 

computerized estimating, and using Means cost data. Typically, a unit price estimate is 

the most accurate of the four construction cost estimates. 

3.3.1.22 RS Means. Square Foot and Assemblies Estimating Methods. 3rd Edition. 

URL: http://www.rsmeans.com/ 

This text is a guide to making construction cost estimates in a timely manner by using 

square foot and assemblies cost data. These estimates are considered to be less accurate 

than a unit price estimate, but require less time and information; square foot and 

assemblies cost estimates are conceptual or appraisal cost estimates. 

3.3.1.23 Swiss Re. 

URL: http://www.swissre.com/. 

See reference 3.3.2.22 (page 69) 

3.3.1.24 United States Department of Commerce: United States Census Bureau. 

URL: http://www.census.gov

See reference 2.3.2.15. (page 30) 

3.3.1.25 United States Department of Commerce: United States Census Bureau. 

Construction Statistics. 

URL: http://www.census.gov/const/www/

This data is taken on a monthly basis and tracks housing units. It measures the value of 

all construction put in place each month and the value of residential improvement and 

repair work each quarter. Additionally, the Census of Construction Industries is taken 

every five years and provides an overview of the construction industry. The information 

on this site is categorized by the following topics: new residential construction, new 

residential sales, construction price indexes, characteristics of new housing, construction 

spending, residential improvements, manufactured housing, and census of construction. 

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3.3.1.26 United States Department of Energy. 

URL: http://www.doe.gov 

The Department of Energy (DOE) provides energy efficiency and security information 

while protecting the environment and advancing the economy. Within the DOE, the 

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) leads the government’s 

research, development, and deployment of energy efficiency. It invests in valuable 

research that, because of high risks, would not otherwise be conducted. It provides 

information on energy efficiency in homes, cars, buildings, and industry. 

3.3.1.27 United States Department of Energy: Energy Efficiency and Renewable 

Energy. 

URL: http://www.eere.energy.gov/

This Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy website is a web portal to relevant online 

resources. It provides energy efficiency information on buildings, transportation, and 

industry and discusses renewable energy such as biomass, geothermal, hydrogen, solar, 

and wind energy. 

3.3.1.28 United States Department of Energy: Energy Information Administration. 

URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/ 

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), created by Congress in 1977, is an agency 

of the U.S. Department of Energy that provides statistical information. The EIA collects 

independent energy data for reliable policy making, and public understanding of energy 

and its interaction with the economy and environment. The consumers of EIA data 

include congressional, government, industrial, academic, financial, media, and public 

institutions. The data provided is searchable by type of fuel (i.e., petroleum, natural gas, 

electricity, coal), by topic (i.e., consumption, forecasts, environment), and by type of 

report (i.e., brochures, service reports, survey forms). Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, 

International Energy Outlook, Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the Monthly 

Energy Review are among the many reports of the EIA. 

3.3.1.29 United States Department of Energy: Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Outlook. 

URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ 

The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) offers an outlook on energy through 2025. Using the 

EIA National Energy Modeling System, AEO provides useful data for life cycle cost 

analysis. There are numerous forecast tables along with information on energy prices, 

economic growth, energy trends, energy consumption, energy intensity, electricity 

generation, emissions, and energy imports. 

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3.3.1.30 United States Department of Energy: Energy Information Administration. 

Annual Energy Review. 

URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer 

Published by the EIA, the Annual Energy Review (AER) provides current and historical 

annual data from 1949 to the present. It includes total energy production, consumption, 

and trade for the following energy sources: petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, and 

nuclear energy. 

3.3.1.31 United States Department of Energy: Energy Information Administration, 

Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey. 

URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/

The Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) is quadrennial survey 

started in 1979 taken by the Energy Information Administration. It is a national survey of 

the stock of U.S. commercial buildings, energy characteristics, and energy consumption 

and expenditure. Any building with at least half of the floor space reserved for a purpose 

that is not residential, industrial, or agricultural is considered a commercial building. This 

definition does include buildings that might not traditionally be considered commercial, 

such as schools, correctional institutions, and buildings used for religious purposes. 

3.3.1.32 United States Department of Energy: Energy Information Administration, 

Country Analysis Briefs.

URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs 

The Country Analysis Briefs provide a short energy data report for countries around the 

world. It has information on oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity. It also provides an 

economic and environmental overview of each nation. Additional links for other 

information resources are listed on the website. 

3.3.1.33 United States Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

URL: http://www.bls.gov

See reference 4.2.24 (page 95) 

3.3.1.34 United States Department of Transportation. 

URL: http://www.dot.gov/ 

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) ensures that the nation has a safe and 

efficient transportation system that meets the changing needs of the U.S. There are 

thirteen DOT organizations, which include the Federal Highway Administration, Federal 

Railroad Administration, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and Pipeline 

and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. These organizations provide 

transportation information and regulations that can be useful in the construction process. 

For transportation statistics see reference 2.3.2.18 on page 30. 

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3.3.2 Event-Related Losses 

3.3.2.1 Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly Labor Review. 

URL: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/mlrhome.htm

The Monthly Labor Review is a publication of the Bureau of Labor Statistics that includes 

relevant labor data and research articles. Topics from past issues include unemployment, 

state labor legislation, retirement plans, and employment and unemployment statistics. 

Typically there is a section of articles and a section of reports. 

3.3.2.2 Centers for Disease Control, National Center for Health Statistics. 

URL: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/index.htm 

The National Center for Health Statistics provides a significant amount of information 

and statistics on America’s health. Their website provides birth data, mortality data, 

hospital data, health care data, immunization data, and other national health statistics. 

3.3.2.3 Environmental Cost Handling Options and Solutions. 

URL: http://www.echos-online.com 

Environmental Cost Handling Options and Solutions (ECHOS) collects construction and 

environmental restoration cost information. Data from ECHOS has been used on over 

10,000 environmental restoration projects throughout the U.S. 

3.3.2.4 Fisk, William J. and Arthur H. Rosenfeld. “Estimates of Improved 

Productivity and Health from Better Indoor Environments.” Indoor Air:

1997. vol. 7. Issue 3. 158-172. 

There is mounting evidence that indoor environments significantly affect worker 

performance. Only rudimentary estimates exist as to what extent productivity increases 

with increased indoor air quality. This article discusses the evidence and estimation of 

indoor environmental quality’s effect on productivity and health. Estimated U.S. potential 

savings plus productivity gains from indoor environments are $30 billion to $170 billion. 

3.3.2.5 Horowitz, John K., and Richard T. Carson. “Discounting Statistical Lives.” 

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. Vol. 3, Number 4 (December 1990): 403-

413. 

This article discusses the discount rate used to calculate the future value of a statistical 

life for benefit-cost analysis. It uses observations on discrete choices between projects 

with different time horizons in order to determine a median discount rate. It also suggests 

that different rates apply to different types of risk. 

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3.3.2.6 International Trade Administration. U.S. Industry & Trade Outlook. 

URL: http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/industry/otea/outlook/index.html

See section 3.3.1.13

3.3.2.7 Kuchler, Fred, and Elise Golan, Assigning Values to Life: Comparing 

Methods for Valuing Health Risks. Agricultural Economic Report (AER) 

784. Washington DC: United States Department of Agriculture, November 

1999. 

URL: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/aer784/ 

This text discusses five methods that economists and analysts use to evaluate policies that 

affect health and safety: cost-of-illness, willingness-to-pay, cost-effectiveness analysis, 

risk-risk analysis, and health-health analysis. It explores the assumptions and applications 

of each method in order to come to four conclusions: (1) the approaches are not 

interchangeable because they measure different factors; (2) usefulness depends on the 

unit of measure; (3) most of the approaches integrate income and circumstance; and (3) 

the theory of willingness-to-pay conflicts with its application. 

3.3.2.8 Lister, Debra Brinegar, Elisabeth M. Jenicek, and Paul Fredrick Preissner. 

Productivity and Indoor Environmental Conditions Research: An Annotated 

Bibliography for Facility Engineers. USACERL Special Report 98/96. 

Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, July 1998. 

This text provides a list of resources on indoor environments to improve productivity 

while conserving energy. It contains sources on measuring worker productivity, lighting, 

thermal control, air quality, and the Hawthorne effect. 

3.3.2.9 Moore, Michael J., and W. Kip Viscusi, “The Quantity Adjusted Value of 

Life.” Economic Inquiry: 1998. vol. 26. 369-388. 

This article discusses the value of life as it relates to compensation for risk. It also 

discusses the implicit discount rate that workers use in making life-cycle employment 

decisions. It estimates that this discount rate ranges between 10 % and 12 % and the 

implicit value per year of life is $175 000. 

3.3.2.10 Munich Re Group. 

URL: http://www.munichre.com/ 

The Munich Re Group is a large reinsurance company that has branches and offices 

throughout the world. It produces a number of annual publications on casualty risk, geo 

risks, life and health, liability, property and casualty damage, and current topics within 

the industry. 

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3.3.2.11 National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT). 

URL: http://www.mipt.org/ 

The National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) located in 

Oklahoma City is a non-profit corporation established by the surviving families of the 

Murrah Federal Building bombing in 1995. It has numerous publications and has 

coordinated with the RAND Corporation in developing the Terrorism Knowledge Base 

(http://www.tkb.org/Home.jsp). The project has two databases: the RAND Terrorism 

Chronology Database and the RAND-MIPT Terrorism Incident Database. The former 

records international terrorist incidents that occurred between 1968 and 1997. The latter 

records domestic and international terrorist incidents occurring from 1998 to the present. 

The website includes a great deal of information about terrorist groups, incidents, cases, 

leaders, their countries, and other issues. See RAND Corporation in reference 2.1.21 

3.3.2.12 National Ocean Economics Program. 

URL: http://noep.csumb.edu/ 

The National Ocean Economics Program (NOEP) provides economic information on 

changes and trends along coastal waters. It has several online databases: ocean sector & 

industry data, coastal economy sector data, demographics, ocean and coastal economy, 

non-market data, and U.S. commercial marine fisheries. The NOEP website also has 

nearly a dozen publications, which include reports on gulf coast hurricane damage, 

California’s ocean economy, and the U.S. coastal economy. 

3.3.2.13 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Storm Data (SD). 

URL: http://www5.ncdc.noaa.gov/pubs/publications.html 

Storm Data is a monthly publication of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration that provides chronological listing of storm paths, deaths, injuries and 

property damage organized by state. There is also a database of natural hazard and storm 

data located at http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms. The 

database is searchable by state, date, and type of event. Each search includes the date, 

time, magnitude, injuries, property damage, and crop damage caused by each event and 

all the events together. Data is available for droughts, dust storms, fog, floods, funnel 

clouds, hail, hurricanes, lightning, oceans, snow, precipitation, extreme temperatures, 

thunderstorms, tornados, and forest fires. 

3.3.2.14 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Coastal and Ocean 

Resource Economics. 

URL: http://marineeconomics.noaa.gov/welcome.html 

The Coastal and Ocean Resource Economics (CORE) program produces research on the 

social and economic impact of outdoor coastal recreation areas. This research includes 

the economic impact of coral reefs, beaches, ecological reserves, and other coastal areas 

that provide public and private goods. CORE intends to provide relevant data sets 

through their website, but currently they are only available on CD by request. 

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3.3.2.15 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Damage Assessment, 

Remediation, and Restoration Program. 

URL: http://www.darrp.noaa.gov/ 

NOAA’s Damage Assessment, Remediation, and Restoration Program (DARRP) 

provides expertise to assess and restore natural resources affected by hazardous substance 

release and physical impact. The website provides case studies of previous incidences 

such as the Kuroshima oil spill, Tenyo Maru oil spill, harbor restoration projects, and 

river restoration projects. These studies provide descriptions of each incident, damage 

assessment, and cost of restoration. 

3.3.2.16 National Research Council. Stewardship of Federal Facilities: A Proactive 

Strategy for Managing the Nation’s Public Assets. Washington DC: National 

Academy Press, 1998. 

This text addresses the continual deterioration of federal government facilities and the 

maintenance required for their upkeep. Cost effective repairs and maintenance are 

deferred to an unspecified future date; though this deferment saves money in the short 

run, it costs the government a significant amount more in the long run. 

3.3.2.17 National Technology Information Service. 

URL: http://www.ntis.gov/ 

The National Technical Information Service is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce 

and is a central resource for scientific, technical, engineering, and business information. It 

provides information from over 200 federal agencies on a wide variety of topics, which 

include health, terrorism response, health costs, and numerous other topics. 

3.3.2.18 O’Day, Alan. Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism. Burlington, VT: 

Ashgate Publishing Limited, 2004. 

This text is a collection of 29 articles on weapons and terrorism. The articles are from 

countries around the world. Topics discussed in this text include the threat of terrorism, 

bio-terrorism and preparedness, pharmaceutical stockpiles, anthrax, smallpox, nuclear 

terrorism, chemical weapons, mitigation, medical responses to terrorism, and risk 

analysis. One article is discussed in reference 2.1.5. 

3.3.2.19 Population Reference Bureau. 

URL: http://www.prb.org 

The Population Reference Bureau contains international statistics on population, health, 

and the environment. These statistics are available on their website and contain the 

following categories: country, population trends, education, environment variables, health 

variables, and reproductive variables. Their website contains articles on countries around 

the world; topics vary over time and by region. 

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3.3.2.20 Public Entity Risk Institute. 

URL: http://www.riskinstitute.org/ 

See reference 2.1.20 (page 13) 

3.3.2.21 RAND Corporation. 

URL: http://www.rand.org/

See reference 2.1.21 (page 13) 

3.3.2.22 Swiss Re. 

URL: http://www.swissre.com/ 

Swiss Re is a global reinsurer and is recognized for risk and capital management. It 

shares much of its research through the Swiss Insurance Training Centre (SITC) and 

Sigma. The latter is a regular publication of research by Swiss Re that can be freely 

accessed online without charge. Swiss Re lists publications by topic: climate change, 

natural catastrophes, water, insurance-linked securities, terrorism, liability regimes, and 

nanotechnology. Each of the publications has a particular focus on relevant trends of risks 

and capital as it relates to the insurance industry. A sample of publications by Swiss Re 

include the following articles: “The 20 Worst Catastrophes in Terms of Victims: 2004,” 

“The 20 Most Costly Insurance Losses: 2004,” “Earthquake Probability Assessment,” 

“Monthly Economic Outlook,” “Quarterly US Property and Casualty,” and “Terrorism 

Risks.” Swiss Re also provides an online service called CatNet, which provides 

catastrophe risk estimates, global natural disaster risk maps, and historic insurance loss 

data. Users are required to apply for access, but it does not require a fee. 

3.3.2.23 United States Department of Commerce: United States Census Bureau. 

URL: http://www.census.gov

See section 2.3.2.15 on page 30

3.3.2.24 United States Department of Commerce: United States Census Bureau. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States. 

URL: http://www.census.gov/statab/www/

See section 2.3.2.16 on page 30

3.3.2.25 United States Department of Justice. April 3, 2006. 

URL: http://www.usdoj.gov/ 

The Department of Justice (DOJ) enforces the law and defends the interests of the United 

States against foreign and domestic threats. The DOJ also provides numerous 

publications on crime, terrorism, and other threats to the public. The most recent 

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terrorism report can be found on their website: 

http://www.fbi.gov/publications/terror/terroris.htm. 

3.3.2.26 United States Department of Transportation: Bureau of Transportation 

Statistics. 

URL: http://www.bts.gov/

See reference 2.3.2.18 (page 30)

3.3.2.27 United States Department of Transportation: National Highway Traffic 

Safety Administration: National Center for Statistics and Analysis. 

“Fatality Analysis Reporting System.” 

URL: http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/ 

The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) is a web-based encyclopedia provided 

by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that provides statistics on 

transportation fatalities. It provides transportation fatality trends by type of vehicle, time 

of day, pedestrian involvement, cyclist involvement, and by circumstance. Several traffic 

safety reports can be accessed from this website that deal with alcohol, children, large 

trucks, motorcycles, the elderly, cyclists, pedestrians, school transportation, speeding, and 

young drivers. 

3.3.2.28 Viscusi, W. Kip. Fatal Tradeoffs: Public and Private Responsibilities for Risk. 

New York: Oxford University Press, 1992. 

This text is drawn from a collection of Viscusi’s writings. He is one of the leading 

economists in the study of accident risk. The text discusses market valuations of human 

life, liability, prospective reference theory, the Occupational Safety and Health 

Administration (OSHA), and the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). This 

text is useful for conducting research on the value of life and risk. 

3.3.2.29 Viscusi, W. Kip, and Joseph E. Aldy. “The Value of a Statistical Life: A 

Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World.” The Journal 

of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 27, Number 1, (2003): 5-76. 

The value of a statistical life is related to the tradeoff of between resources and fatality 

risks. This journal article reviews over 60 studies from 10 different countries on the value 

of a statistical life. It discusses risk premiums and injury risk premiums along with the 

role of unionization, the effect of age on the value of a statistical life, and several 

econometric issues. The article calculates an income elasticity of a statistical life and 

discusses policy applications related to the value of a statistical life. A working paper 

copy is available online at NBER’s website: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9487. 

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3.3.2.30 White House. “Ch. 24 Ranking Regulatory Investments in Public Health.” 

Analytical Perspectives: Budget of the United States Government. 

Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office, 2003. 

URL: www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2003/pdf/spec.pdf

Chapter 24 of this White House publication, which is titled “Ranking Regulatory 

Investments in Public Health,” discusses optimizing the allocation of resources for risk 

management. It illustrates the use of cost-effectiveness ratios to compare payoffs from 

regulatory investments. Additionally, it discusses the benefits and limitations of costeffectiveness analysis as a method for policy decisions. 

3.3.2.31 Woo, Gordon. “The Evolution of Terrorism Risk Modeling.” Journal of 

Reinsurance. April 22, 2003. 

URL: http://www.rms.com/Publications/EvolutionTerRiskMod_Woo_Journal

Re.pdf 

See reference 2.1.25 (page 14) 

3.4 Software for Estimating Costs and Losses 

3.4.1 4Clicks-Solutions. 

URL: http://www.4-clicks.com 

4Clicks-Solutions develops estimating, project management, quality control, and 

accounting software. It provides solutions for the government contract method known as 

job order contracting. It utilizes RS Mean’s data and other resources. 

3.4.2 Bid2Win. 

URL: http://www.bid2win.com/ 

Bid2Win is a construction estimating software program for infrastructure construction 

and related work. Since it is compatible with Department of Transportation (DOT) import 

files, the user can download a project from the DOT and import it directly into Bid2Win. 

This software also provides error checking and Microsoft compatibility. 

3.4.3 Construction Management Software. ProEst. 

URL: http://www.proest.com/ 

Construction Management Software designed ProEst for general contractors, residential 

builders, remodelers, concrete and masonry contractors, and landscapers. It contains a 

database of thousands of standard industry items, but also allows for user-defined data. It 

is organized in CSI format and has access to the RS Means trade databases. The software 

has a digitizer interface that automatically counts items from blueprints. 

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3.4.4 HardDollar. 

URL: http://www.harddollar.com/ 

HardDollar is a construction cost estimating software program that is useful for 

estimating the construction cost of infrastructure such as civil engineering, transportation, 

water facilities, and environmental projects by providing the required information and 

tools. This software can track the costs of previous projects, changes in current projects, 

and profitability. 

3.4.5 MC2. 

URL: http://www.mc2-ice.com/ 

MC2 develops cost estimating software for construction firms. Their software assists in 

estimating construction work, earthwork, section work, and trench work. ICE 2000 is 

their primary estimating program, which contains a cost database for general 

construction, site work, steel fabrication, steel erection, wastewater tanks, equipment, 

plumbing, fire protection, HVAC systems, electrical systems, and piping. 

3.4.6 Quest Solutions. Quest Estimator.

URL: http://www.questsolutions.com 

Quest Estimator is a construction cost estimating software program that contains a 

digitizer for counting items, a database for cost items, and provides cost estimates. The 

company offers job specific software for earthwork, trench work, and roadwork with 

graphical interfaces. 

3.4.7 RS Means. CostWorks.

URL: http://www.rsmeans.com 

CostWorks is a software program developed by RS Means. It allows the user to 

download data from RS Mean’s website and use it in a spreadsheet or export it to 

Microsoft Excel in order to make cost estimates. A limited amount of cost estimating can 

be conducted on their website without purchasing any products. Also see reference 

3.3.1.18 on page 61. 

3.4.8 Sage Timberline Office. 

URL: http://www.sagetimberlineoffice.com/ 

Sage Timberline Office produces construction cost estimating software, which is 

recognized throughout the construction industry as “Timberline.” It allows the user to 

either enter personalized cost data or access online data from RS Means in order to make 

cost estimates. Timberline integrates with other applications and users can add a digitizer 

or a Computer Animated Drawing (CAD) Integrator to generate quick accurate estimates. 

The CAD Integrator uses a standard language to define CAD objects such as windows 

and doors. This standard language allows the software to count the objects within a CAD 

drawing rather than an engineer counting them by hand. 

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3.4.9 TreeAge. TreeAge Pro Suite.

URL: http://www.treeage.com/ 

TreeAge Pro Suite is a decision analysis software program. It uses decision trees in order 

to conduct Monte Carlo Simulation, expected value, and sensitivity analysis as well as 

other decision analyses. Currently TreeAge offers a free trial of their software, which has 

a help file that walks the user through the program. 

3.4.10 U.S. COST. Success Estimator. 

URL: http://www.uscost.com

Success Estimator, developed by U.S. COST, is a construction cost estimating tool. It has 

thousands of cost items, a city index tool, and allows the use of RS Mean’s data or 

personalized data. 

3.4.11 Vertigraph Incorporation. BidPoint.

URL: http://www.vertigraph.com/ 

Vertigraph provides software solutions that “automate the takeoff, estimating, bidding 

and digitizing functions” of construction companies. BidPoint is an Excel add-in program 

developed by Vertigraph. It allows estimators to digitize, edit, and format drawings and 

quantities. BidScreen is another Vertigraph excel add-in software product designed for 

plans that are already in digital format. 

3.4.12 WinEstimator Incorporated. WinEst.

URL: http://www.winest.com 

WinEst estimating software along with its additional modules provides a tool to estimate 

the costs of commercial, residential, public, and specialty structures while integrating 

accounting, scheduling/management, and CAD software solutions. The user of the 

software can utilize their own cost database, the cost database that comes with the 

software, or use one of the four third-party cost databases: RS Means, Environmental 

Cost Handling Options and Solutions (ECHOS) cost database, MCAA, and NECA. 

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74
4 Economic Evaluation Guidance 

Economic evaluation is the means through which competing alternatives are analyzed 

and a cost-effective risk mitigation plan is identified. Risk assessment and risk 

management, on the other hand, evaluate the risks posed by natural and man-made 

hazards, formulate the alternative combinations of risk mitigation strategies, and provide 

the associated cost and hazard data needed to compare the competing alternatives. Risk 

assessment and risk management ensure that the alternative combinations of risk 

mitigation strategies are formulated so that they can be rigorously analyzed with 

economic tools. 

The economic evaluation step includes the selection of the appropriate measures of 

economic performance, a rigorous analysis of the alternative combinations of risk 

mitigation strategies, the identification of the cost-effective risk mitigation plan, and the 

documentation necessary to support the recommendation of that plan. The economic 

evaluation step places special emphasis on the treatment of uncertainty on the selection of 

a cost-effective risk mitigation plan. 

Section 4.1 provides references to the economic tools used in performing an economic 

evaluation. Economic tools include evaluation methods, standards that support and guide 

the application of those methods, and software for implementing the evaluation methods. 

Economic evaluation methods have been widely used in project evaluation for decades. 

A survey of evaluation methods and a comprehensive treatment of how to apply them is 

given in Ruegg and Marshall. Many evaluation methods have been transformed into 

industry consensus standards. The compilation of ASTM Standards on Building 

Economics contains more than 20 standards. Evaluation methods fall under the category 

of ASTM Standard Practices. The compilation also includes ASTM Standard Guides and 

Classifications, both of which are useful in implementing the Standard Practices. The 

format used in ASTM Standard Practices includes a “procedure” section that provides 

step-by-step instructions for calculating measures of economic performance. Finally, a 

number of software tools are available that produce economic measures consistent with 

the Standard Practices. 

Section 4.2 provides references to economic modeling resources. Documents abstracted 

in this section cover assumptions that underlie the economic evaluation, the key 

parameters that define the project (e.g., purpose of the project, length of the study period, 

and discount rate), the specification of alternatives, choosing the right evaluation method 

or combination of evaluation methods, and producing the documentation necessary to 

support the recommendation of the most cost-effective risk mitigation plan. 

Comprehensive treatments of these issues are provided in Ruegg and Marshall, Fuller and 

Petersen, the compilation of ASTM Standards on Building Economics, and Marshall’s 

audiovisual series. 

Section 4.3 provides references to the treatment of uncertainty in an economic evaluation. 

Investments in long-lived projects, such as the erection of new constructed facilities or 

additions and alterations to existing constructed facilities, are characterized by 

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uncertainties regarding project life, operation and maintenance costs, revenues, and other 

factors that affect project economics. To make reliable economic evaluations, treatment 

of uncertainty is particularly important for projects affected by natural and man-made 

hazards that occur infrequently, but have significant consequences. Therefore, when 

developing a cost-effective risk mitigation plan, three distinct levels of analysis are 

recommended. This “analysis strategy” systematically adds increased detail to the 

decision-making process. The starting point for conducting an economic evaluation is to 

do a baseline analysis. In the baseline analysis, all data elements entering into the 

calculations are fixed. The term baseline analysis is used to denote a complete analysis in 

all respects but one; it does not address the effects of uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis 

measures the impact on project outcomes of changing the values of one or more key data 

elements about which there is uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis can be performed for any 

measure of economic performance. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis complements the 

baseline analysis by evaluating the changes in output measures when selected data inputs 

are allowed to vary about their baseline values. The key advantage of sensitivity analyses 

is that they are easily constructed and computed and the results are easy to explain and 

understand. Their disadvantage is that they do not produce results that can be tied to 

probabilistic levels of significance. Monte Carlo simulation varies a small set of key 

parameters either singly or in combination according to an experimental design. 

Associated with each key parameter is a probability distribution function from which 

values are randomly sampled. The major advantage of the Monte Carlo simulation 

technique is that it permits the effects of uncertainty to be rigorously analyzed through 

reference to a derived distribution of project outcome values. 

4.1 Economic Tools 

4.1.1 Evaluation Methods 

4.1.1.1 ASTM International. ASTM Standards on Building Economics, 5th edition. 

West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International, 2004. 

See reference 4.1.2.2 (page 82) 

4.1.1.2 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Developing a Cost-Effective 

Risk Mitigation Plan for New and Existing Constructed Facilities.” ASTM 

E 2506. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2006. Vol. 04.12. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

See reference 4.1.2.8 (page 84) 

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4.1.1.3 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Economic Methods for 

Evaluating Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” ASTM E 1185. 

Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, 

PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

See reference 4.1.2.9 (page 84) 

4.1.1.4 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Techniques for 

Treating Uncertainty and Risk in the Economic Evaluation of Buildings 

and Building Systems.” E 1369. ASTM Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.10 (page 84) 

4.1.1.5 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Summarizing the Economic 

Impacts of Building-Related Projects.” E 2204. Annual Book of ASTM 

Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

See reference 4.1.2.11 (page 85) 

4.1.1.6 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Applying Analytical 

Hierarchy Process (AHP) to Multi-attribute Decision Analysis of 

Investments Related to Buildings and building Systems.” E 1765. Annual 

Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: 

ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.13 (page 85) 

4.1.1.7 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Benefit-to-Cost 

and Savings-to-Investment Ratios for Buildings and Building Systems.” E 

964. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.15 (page 86) 

4.1.1.8 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Cost Risk of 

Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1946. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 02.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.16 (page 86) 

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4.1.1.9 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Internal Rate of 

Return and Adjusted Internal Rate of Return for Investments in Buildings 

and Building Systems.” E 1057. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. 

Vol. 02.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.17 (page 86) 

4.1.1.10 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of 

Buildings and Building Systems.” E 917. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.18 (page 86) 

4.1.1.11 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Net Benefits for 

Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1074. Annual Book of 

ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM 

International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.19 (page 87) 

4.1.1.12 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Payback for 

Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1121. Annual Book of 

ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM 

International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.20 (page 87) 

4.1.1.13 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Performing Value Analysis 

(VA) of Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1699. Annual Book of ASTM 

Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.23 (page 88) 

4.1.1.14 Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events. 

URL: http://www.usc.edu/dept/create 

The Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) is a 

university center of excellence funded by the Department of Homeland Security in order 

to “improve our nation’s security through the development of advanced models and tools 

78
for the evaluation of the risks, costs, and consequences of terrorism.” Their website 

contains information about current events and research. 

4.1.1.15 Chapman, Robert E. Applications of Life-Cycle Cost Analysis to Homeland 

Security Issues in Constructed Facilities: A Case Study. NISTIR 7025. 

Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, 

October 2003. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/publications/nistirs/7025.pdf

This publication is a life-cycle cost case study on the renovation of a data center. The 

renovation includes an upgrade of the HVAC system, telecommunications system, and 

data processing system along with addressing security concerns. The publication 

systematically explains the life-cycle cost analysis. It explains each equation and then 

uses them in the case study of the data center. 

4.1.1.16 Chapman, Robert E., and Chi J. Leng. Cost-Effective Responses to Terrorist 

Risks in Constructed Facilities. NISTIR 7073. Gaithersburg, MD: National 

Institute of Standards and Technology, March 2004. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/publications/nistirs/7073.pdf

This NIST publication presents a three-step process in order to develop and identify 

optimal risk mitigation plans. The decision methodology is based on life-cycle cost and is 

supported by a voluntary industry standard, ASTM E 917. This method and a software 

program to compliment it are detailed within the publication. Other evaluation methods 

such as present value of net savings, savings to investment ratio, and adjusted internal 

rate of return are explained and discussed. 

4.1.1.17 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Guidelines for Preparing 

Economic Analyses. EPA 240-R-00-003. Washington, DC: United States 

Environmental Protection Agency, September 2000. 

URL: http://www.epa.gov/opei/pubsinfo.htm 

Guidelines for Preparing Economic Analyses is part of an effort by the EPA to improve 

the use of sound science in decision processes and provide guidance for the analysis of 

the economic impact of policies and regulations. It discusses social and private 

discounting, costs, benefit valuation, social costs, policies, consumer surplus, value of 

human health, ecological benefits, and social cost. This EPA publication addresses 

economic issues that are useful for mitigation assessment with an environmental aspect to 

it. The EPA has numerous other publications and data that relate to the costs and benefits 

of an improved environment. They are available through the National Center for 

Environmental Economics website: 

http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eed.nsf/webpages/Publications.html. 

79
4.1.1.18 Fuller, Sieglinde K., and Stephen R. Petersen. Life-Cycle Costing Manual 

for the Federal Energy Management Program. Hand Book 135, 1995 Edition. 

Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, 1995. 

ULR: http://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/build96/PDF/b96121.pdf

This manual is a guide to the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) method for economic evaluation. It 

expands the methods and criteria of the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) 

rules published in 10 CFR 436, Subpart A. The manual provides an explanation of the 

life-cycle cost (LCC) method, defines the measures of economic performance, describes 

assumptions that are made, and gives examples of the methods. Life Cycle Cost Analysis 

(LCCA) uses all the costs pertaining to owning, operating, maintaining, and disposing of 

a project to evaluate whether it is an economical project. This method can be used to 

evaluate any investment decision that has higher investment costs with future savings and 

is particularly useful when considering energy saving investment projects. Other topics 

that are explained and discussed include the discount rate, price escalation, net savings, 

savings-to-investment ratio, adjusted internal rate of return, discounted payback, and 

simple payback. 

4.1.1.19 Mackin, T.J., LTC Darrall Henderson, and J.W. Jones. A Method For 

Allocating Financial Resources to Combat Terrorism: Optimizing the 

Reduction of Consequences. 71st MORS Symposium, Working Group 16, 

June 13, 2003. Alexandria, VA: Military Operations Research Society, 

October 2003. 

URL: http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA418274 

See reference 4.2.16 (page 94) 

4.1.1.20 Marshall, Harold E. Audiovisual series on Least-Cost Energy Decisions for 

Buildings, Part I: Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing. Gaithersburg, MD: 

National Institute of Standards and Technology, April 1990. 

Part I of this audiovisual series discuses life-cycle analysis as a tool to evaluate building 

design systems and equipment. It walks the audience through each step of the process. It 

explains the discount of cash flows, data sources, uncertainty, computer software, and the 

improvement of decisions. Part I of this series is also accompanied by a workbook: 

NISTIR 4309, Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings. 

4.1.1.21 Marshall, Harold E. Audiovisual series on Least-Cost Energy Decisions for 

Buildings, Part II: Uncertainty and Risk. Gaithersburg, MD: National 

Institute of Standards and Technology, April 1992. 

Part II of this audiovisual series is an overview of uncertainty and risk. It discusses risk 

taking attitudes, risk neutral attitudes, and risk adverse attitudes. It explains methods to 

measure the probability that a project will successfully fulfill expectations. It also 

explains sensitivity analysis, probability, and simulations. It provides additional 

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references and sources of data. Part II of this series is accompanied by a workbook: 

NISTIR 5178, Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings. 

4.1.1.22 Marshall, Harold E. Audiovisual series on Least-cost Energy Decisions for 

Buildings, part III: Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods. Gaithersburg, 

MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology. 

Part III of this audiovisual series provides a method to select economic methods to 

evaluate types of investment decisions in buildings. It will allow the user to select from 

several economic methods: life-cycle cost, net savings, savings-to-investment ratio, 

adjusted internal rate of return, and payback methods. The types of investment decisions 

include the following topics: accept/reject, efficiency level, system design selection, 

optimal combination of projects, and priority ranking of projects. Part III also is 

accompanied by a workbook: Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings. 

4.1.1.23 Ramachandran, Ganapathy. The Economics of Fire Protection. New York, 

NY: Routledge, 1998. 

This text provides methods for selecting a cost-effective fire protection strategy. It begins 

with a discussion of topics in fire protection economics: continuing with costs and 

benefits, cost-benefit analysis, trade-offs, decision analysis, utility theory, value-ofhuman life, fire insurance and analytical methods. These methods are directly relevant for 

those who are making mitigation decisions for fire protection. This text is mathematical 

in nature. 

4.1.1.24 Ruegg, Rosalie T. and Harold Marshall. Building Economics: Theory and 

Practice. New York, NY: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1990. 

This text presents methods for economical decisions on the construction and renovation 

of buildings. It explains life-cycle cost, net benefits, net savings, benefit-to-cost ratio, 

savings-to-investment ratio, internal rate of return, overall rate of return, and payback. It 

describes the specific information that is needed to apply these techniques and how to 

treat uncertainty and risk. Topics include risk exposure, breakeven analysis, sensitivity 

analysis, decision analysis, and other techniques to treat risk and uncertainty. 

4.1.1.25 Taylor, Craig, and Erik VanMarcke. Infrastructure Risk Management 

Processes: Natural, Accidental, and Deliberate hazards. ASCE Council on 

Disaster Risk Management Monograph No. 1. Reston, VA: American 

Society of Civil Engineers, 2006. 

This monograph consists of eight papers that discuss the quantification of vulnerability 

decision analyses. It discusses hazards, systems evaluation, risk criteria, and systems 

management and includes the following titles: 

• PSHA [Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis] Uncertainty Analysis: 

Applications to the CEUS and the Pacific NW 

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• The Regional Economic Cost of a Tsunami Wave generated by a Submarine 

Landslide off Palos Verdes, California 

• The Emerging Role of Remote Sensing Technology in Emergency Management 

• Context and Resiliency: Influences on Electric Utility Lifeline Performance 

• Criteria for Acceptable Risk in the Netherlands 

• Landslide Risk Assessment and Remediation 

• A Preliminary Study of Geologic Hazards for the Columbia River Transportation 

Corridor 

• Multihazard Mitigation Los Angeles Water System: A Historical Perspective

4.1.2 Industry Standards 

4.1.2.1 American National Standards Institute. “American National Standard for 

Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems.” ANSI/AIHA Z10. 

ANSI/AIHA Z10 is a voluntary consensus standard that provides “critical management 

systems requirements and guidelines for improvement of occupational health and safety.” 

It affects health and safety as well as productivity, financial performance, and quality. 

Topics of ANSI/AIHA Z10 include participation, planning, implementation, evaluation, 

corrective action, and management review. This document is available through the 

American Industrial Hygiene Association: http://www.aiha.org. 

4.1.2.2 ASTM International. ASTM Standards on Building Economics, 5th edition. 

West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International, 2004. 

This text includes all the standards associated with buildings and building projects. It 

includes the following ASTM standards: E 1185, E 1369, E 2204, E 917, E 964, E 1057, 

E 1074, E 1121, E 1699, E 1765, E 1804, E 1946, E 2013, E 2166, E 833, E 1557, E 

2083, E 2103, E 2150, and E 2168. Each of these standards is described in section 5.1.2 

of this guide. ASTM Standards on Building Economic is available for purchase from the 

ASTM International website: http://www.astm.org/. 

4.1.2.3 ASTM International. “Standard Classification for Allowance, Contingency 

and Reserve Sums in Building Construction Estimating.” E 2168. Annual 

Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: 

ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

This standard is a classification to make monetary provisions for unexpected costs, risk, 

or other contingencies. Owners, developers, architects, and other professionals utilize this 

standard for cost budgeting. 

82
4.1.2.4 ASTM International. “Standard Classification for Bridge Elements and 

Related Approach Work.” E 2103. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. 

Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

This is a standard for classifying bridge elements and labor. These are the major 

components that are common to most bridges regardless of material or design. Based on 

UNIFORMAT II (see reference 4.1.2.6 on page 83), it includes three levels of 

classification: Major Group Elements, Group Elements, and Individual Elements. Major 

Group Elements include items such as site work, substructure, and superstructure. Group 

Elements include items such as utility relocation, demolition, piers, and railings. 

Individual Elements include more specific items: sheeting, seal coat, dewatering, 

excavation, piles, and drilled shafts. 

4.1.2.5 ASTM International, “Standard Classification for Building Construction 

Field Requirements, and Office Overhead and Profit,” E 2083. Annual 

Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: 

ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

This standard provides a classification for field requirements and office overhead and 

profit in construction estimating. These costs are common to all construction work and 

are an essential part of a complete cost estimate. This standard uses the UNIFORMAT II 

design from reference 4.1.2.6 (ASTM E 1557) and includes the first three levels of 

classification. 

4.1.2.6 ASTM International. “Standard Classification for Building Elements and 

Related Site work-UNIFORMAT II.” E 1557. Annual Book of ASTM 

Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

ASTM E 1557 provides a standard for documentation and classification of building 

components and construction work. This format is used by owners, developers, planners, 

estimators, and other professionals and makes it easy to find and compare data. Well 

organized data is essential for any project. It includes four major classification elements: 

Major Group Elements, Group Elements, Individual Elements, and Sub-Elements. Each 

classification is more specific than the previous one. Examples of Major Group Elements 

include the substructure and the shell while Group Elements include foundation, 

basement construction and roofing. Individual Elements include items such as basement 

excavation, roof coverings, and roof openings. Sub-Elements are more specific items 

such as trenches, structure backfill, sheeting, and ramps. Also see MasterFormat in 

reference 4.1.2.30. 

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4.1.2.7 ASTM International. “Standard Classification for Life-Cycle 

Environmental Work Elements-Environmental Cost Element Structure.” E 

2150. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

This standard is based on the Interagency Environmental Cost Element Structure (ECES) 

and establishes a list of elements for life-cycle environmental work. It is a hierarchical 

standard format for costing so that information can be easily accessed. This standard is 

applicable to all environmental work, including waste management, environmental 

cleanup, decontamination, and other projects. 

4.1.2.8 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Developing a Cost-Effective 

Risk Mitigation Plan for New and Existing Constructed Facilities.” ASTM 

E 2506. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2006. Vol. 04.12. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

This guide describes a generic framework for developing a cost-effective risk mitigation 

plan for new and existing constructed facilities—buildings, industrial facilities, and other 

critical infrastructure. The guide provides owners and managers of constructed facilities, 

architects, engineers, constructors, other providers of professional services for 

constructed facilities, and researchers an approach for formulating and evaluating 

combinations of risk mitigation strategies. The guide insures that the combinations of 

mitigation strategies are formulated so that they can be rigorously analyzed with 

economic tools. 

4.1.2.9 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Economic Methods for 

Evaluating Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” ASTM E 1185. 

Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, 

PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

ASTM Standard E 1185 identifies the type of building decision and recommends ASTM 

practices and other supplements that should be used for a certain project. This ASTM 

standard is to be used at the initial stage of economic evaluation of a building project in 

order to identify the best assessment method. 

4.1.2.10 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Techniques for 

Treating Uncertainty and Risk in the Economic Evaluation of Buildings 

and Building Systems.” E 1369. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. 

Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

ASTM E 1369 provides methods for addressing uncertainty in the evaluation of buildings 

and building systems. It includes the uncertainty of the economic outcome and values 

84
used in the assessment of a building or building system. It discusses breakeven analysis, 

sensitivity analysis, risk-adjusted discounting, the mean-variance criterion and coefficient 

of variation, and decision analysis. 

4.1.2.11 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Summarizing the Economic 

Impacts of Building-Related Projects.” E 2204. Annual Book of ASTM 

Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

ASTM E 2204 details a generic format that uses 2 pages to summarize the economic 

evaluation of a building or building project. Sections of a typical summary include the 

significance of the project, key points, analysis strategy description, benefits and costs, 

key measures, and references. 

4.1.2.12 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for the Estimation of Building 

Damageability in Earthquakes.” E 2026. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

See reference 2.1.2 (page 8) 

4.1.2.13 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Applying Analytical 

Hierarchy Process (AHP) to Multi-attribute Decision Analysis of 

Investments Related to Buildings and building Systems.” E 1765. Annual 

Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: 

ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) described in this standard is a multi-attribute 

decision analysis (MADA) method. Using pair-wise comparisons it allows the evaluation 

of monetary as well as non-monetary benefits and costs. The standard also describes a 

software package available to assist in the analytical hierarchy process. 

4.1.2.14 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Constructing FAST Diagrams 

and Performing Function Analysis during Value Analysis Study.” E 2013. 

Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, 

PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

This standard provides a structure to analyze a building project. Unnecessary costs are 

identified by determining low preference/high cost elements and high preference/low cost 

elements. It also establishes a communication format that is understood by owners, users, 

and stakeholders. 

85
4.1.2.15 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Benefit-to-Cost 

and Savings-to-Investment Ratios for Buildings and Building Systems.” E 

964. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

ASTM standard E 964 details the benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) and savings-to-investment 

ratio (SIR). These two methods are used to evaluate buildings and building systems in 

relation to benefits and costs. There are several other methods for assessing buildings: 

internal rate of return, net benefits, payback, multi-attribute decision analysis, and risk 

analysis. These measures are detailed in other ASTM standards. 

4.1.2.16 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Cost Risk of 

Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1946. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

ASTM E 1946 establishes a standard for measuring cost risk for buildings and building 

systems using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. This method is a standard practice 

for cost information, but requires computer software to conduct the analysis. It provides 

probabilities for construction costs to be above or below the estimated value; the price 

range of construction costs; and identifies the elements with the greatest impact on 

construction costs. 

4.1.2.17 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Internal Rate of 

Return and Adjusted Internal Rate of Return for Investments in Buildings 

and Building Systems.” E 1057. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. 

Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

This standard discusses the internal rate of return and adjusted internal rate of return, 

which measures the economic return on an investment in a building or building system. 

This could be compared to a discount rate or the real interest rate on an investment. There 

are several other methods for assessing building investments: benefit-to-cost ratio, lifecycle cost, net benefits, payback analysis, multi-attribute decision analysis, and risk 

analysis. 

4.1.2.18 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of 

Buildings and Building Systems.” E 917. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

ASTM Standard E 917: “Standard Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of Buildings 

and Building Systems” details the life cycle cost method as it relates to buildings and 

their systems. Several other methods for assessing buildings include benefit-to-cost ratio, 

86
internal rate of return, net benefits, payback, multi-attribute decision analysis, and risk 

analysis. These measures are detailed in other ASTM standards. 

4.1.2.19 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Net Benefits and 

Net Savings for Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1074. 

Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, 

PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

ASTM E 1074 details the process of measuring net benefits (net savings), which is the 

discounted difference between the benefits (savings) of a project and the costs. This 

method measures the cost effectiveness of a building or building system and can be used 

to compare building designs and systems or to evaluate a single design. There are several 

other methods for assessing building investments: benefit-to-cost ratio, life-cycle cost, 

internal rate of return, payback analysis, multi-attribute decision analysis, and risk 

analysis. 

4.1.2.20 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Payback for 

Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1121. Annual Book of 

ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM 

International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

ASTM E 1121 is the standard practice for measuring payback, which is the period of time 

that it takes for the benefits (i.e., savings) incurred from a project to equal the cost of a 

project. This can be used to identify optimal building designs and systems. There are 

several other methods for assessing building investments: benefit-to-cost ratio, life-cycle 

cost, internal rate of return, net benefits, multi-attribute decision analysis, and risk 

analysis. 

4.1.2.21 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Organizing and Managing 

Building Data.” E 2166. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. 

West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

This practice provides a standard method to organize building information, which 

includes text, numeric, and graphical data. It can be applied to information for a single 

building or multiple buildings and is based on UNIFORMAT II (ASTM E 1557 in 

reference 4.1.2.6). Since this format makes it easy to find and compare data many 

software programs use it. 

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4.1.2.22 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Performing and Reporting 

Cost Analysis during the Design Phase of a Project.” E 1804. Annual Book 

of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM 

International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

ASTM E 1804 is an industry standard for providing cost analysis in the design phase of a 

project. It is intended to increase communication between the design professional, owner, 

and the consultants. 

4.1.2.23 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Performing Value Analysis 

(VA) of Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1699. Annual Book of ASTM 

Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

This industry standard details a procedure for satisfying the criteria of a project. These 

requirements are then linked to cost and benefits. There are three periods of activity 

described in this standard: preparation effort, workshop effort, and post workshop effort. 

4.1.2.24 ASTM International. “Standard Terminology of Building Economics.” E 

833. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

ASTM E 833 provides a standard set of over 100 terms and definitions for building 

economics. 

4.1.2.25 American Society of Civil Engineers. Flood Resistant Design and 

Construction. SEI/ASCE 24-05. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil 

Engineers, 2003. 

See reference 3.1.7 (page 35) 

4.1.2.26 American Society of Civil Engineers. Minimum Design Loads for Buildings 

and Other Structures. SEI/ASCE 7-05. Reston, VA: American Society of 

Civil Engineers, 2003. 

See reference 3.1.8 (page 35) 

4.1.2.27 American Society of Civil Engineers. Seismic Evaluation of Existing 

Buildings. SEI/ASCE 31-03. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil 

Engineers, 2003. 

See reference 2.1.3 (page 8) 

88
4.1.2.28 American Society of Professional Estimators. Standard Estimating Practice.

URL: http://www.aspenational.com 

This text provides a reference manual arranged in CSI format for estimating construction 

practices. It is available for purchase on the American Society of Professional Estimators’ 

website listed above. CSI provides education and fellowship for construction estimators 

and has two certification programs: ASPE Certification and CPE Recognition. 

4.1.2.29 British Standards Institute. 

URL: http://www.bsi-global.com 

The British Standards Institute is a national standards body of the UK. It develops 

standards and solutions for business and society. They develop standards for building and 

construction, the environment, fire codes, food, health and safety, healthcare, 

manufacturing, risk, and security. They also provide a number of education courses. 

4.1.2.30 Construction Specifications Institute. 

URL: http://www.csinet.org 

The Construction Specifications Institute (CSI) conducts and publishes research to 

improve the built environment. It develops standards such as the National CAD Standard 

and MasterFormat, which is used for detailing and developing construction cost data. 

Also see UNIFORMAT in reference 4.1.2.6. 

4.1.2.31 International Organization of Standardization. 

URL: http://www.iso.org 

The International Organization of Standardization (ISO) is a world standards 

organization. It works with national and regional standards organization to develop 

international standards that facilitate trade, improve quality, improve security, protect the 

environment, protect the consumer, and promotes economic growth. ISO has developed 

standards for manufacturing, engineering, telecommunications, information technology, 

food, construction, military engineering, and a number of other fields. 

4.1.2.32 National Fire Protection Association. 

See reference 2.3.2.9 (page 28) 

4.1.2.33 National Fire Protection Association. Building and Construction Safety 

Code. NFPA 5000. Quincy, MA: National Fire Protection Association, 2003. 

URL: http://www.nfpa.org 

This publication specifies building systems for health, safety, comfort, and convenience 

for every aspect of design and construction of buildings. There are a total of 55 chapters 

that address construction type and height requirements, fire-resistive materials, interior 

finish, means of egress, accessibility, building rehabilitation, and a number of other 

89
topics. This text is available for purchase from the National Fire Protection Association at 

the web address cited above. 

 

4.1.2.34 United States General Services Administration. Facilities Standards for the 

Public Buildings Service. P100. March 2005. 

URL: http://www.gsa.gov/Portal/gsa/ep/home.do?tabId=1 

See reference 3.1.80 (page 54) 

4.1.3 Software for Implementing Industry Standards

4.1.3.1 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Building and Fire 

Research Laboratory. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov

See reference 2.2.10 (page 18) 

4.1.3.2 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Building and Fire 

Research Laboratory. Building for Environmental and Economic 

Sustainability. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/info/software.html

The Building for Environmental and Economic Sustainability (BEES) software provides 

a way to select cost-effective and environmentally preferable building products. 

Developed by NIST’s Building and Fire Research Laboratory, BEES includes actual 

environmental and economic performance data for almost 200 building products. It uses a 

life-cycle assessment approach to measure the environmental performance of each 

product. Every stage of the products life is evaluated: raw material, manufacture, 

transportation, installation, use, and disposal and recycling. BEES is supported in part by 

the U.S. EPA Environmentally Preferable Purchasing (EPP) Program. 

4.1.3.3 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Building and Fire 

Research Laboratory. Building Life Cycle Cost. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/info/software.html

Building Life-Cycle Cost (BLCC) is a software program that assists users in making 

building and building project decisions by calculating net savings, savings-to-investment 

ratio, adjusted internal rate of return, life-cycle cost, and years to payback. Handbook 135 

(see reference 4.1.1.18 on page 80) as well as ASTM Standards on Building Economics 

(see reference 4.1.2.2 on page 82) describes and details the life-cycle cost method. BLCC 

is available for download free to the public. 

90
4.1.3.4 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Building and Fire 

Research Laboratory. Cost Effectiveness Software Tool. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/info/software.html 

The Cost-Effectiveness Software Tool assists in making consistent comparisons of risk 

mitigation strategies. It allows the user to define hazard scenarios, identify consequences, 

and compare combinations of strategies to mitigate outcomes. The software is based on 

industry standard ASTM E 917 and compares life-cycle cost, adjusted internal rate of 

return, present value net savings, and savings to investment ratio. In order to calculate 

and compare each mitigation strategy the user is required to enter data for costs, events, 

discount rate, escalation rates, and cost frequencies. These terms are discussed and 

explained within the software as well as in the ASTM standard E 917. This user friendly 

software is available to download for free at the NIST website. 

4.1.3.5 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Building and Fire 

Research Laboratory. Energy Escalation Rate Calculator. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/software.html 

The Office of Applied Economics provides an Energy Escalation Rate Calculator 

(EERC) that computes an average annual escalation rate for fuel prices using forecast 

information from the DOE. The user enters the project location, fuel usage, industry 

sector, and the dates of the performance period. Weighted by the proportions of fuel type, 

the software calculates the average rate of fuel price escalation over the duration of the 

performance period. This software compliments the Building Life Cycle Cost software 

(see reference 4.1.3.3 on page 90). 

4.2 Economic Modeling Resources 

4.2.1 ASTM International. ASTM Standards on Building Economics, 5th edition. 

West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International, 2004. 

See reference 4.1.2.2 (page 82) 

4.2.2 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Economic Methods for 

Evaluating Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” ASTM E 1185. 

Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: 

ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

See reference 4.1.2.9 (page 84) 

91
4.2.3 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Techniques for Treating 

Uncertainty and Risk in the Economic Evaluation of Buildings and Building 

Systems.” E 1369. ASTM Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. 

West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.10 (page 84) 

4.2.4 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Summarizing the Economic 

Impacts of Building-Related Projects.” E 2204. Annual Book of ASTM 

Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

See reference 4.1.2.11 (page 85) 

4.2.5 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Applying Analytical Hierarchy 

Process (AHP) to Multi-attribute Decision Analysis of Investments Related to 

Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1765. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.13 (page 85) 

4.2.6 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Benefit-to-Cost and 

Savings-to-Investment Ratios for Buildings and Building Systems.” E 964. 

Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: 

ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.15 (page 86) 

4.2.7 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Cost Risk of 

Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1946. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 02.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.16 (page 86) 

4.2.8 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Internal Rate of 

Return and Adjusted Internal Rate of Return for Investments in Buildings 

and Building Systems.” E 1057. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 

02.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.17 (page 86) 

92
4.2.9 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of 

Buildings and Building Systems.” E 917. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.18 (page 86) 

4.2.10 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Net Benefits for 

Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1074. Annual Book of 

ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM 

International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.19 (page 87) 

4.2.11 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Payback for 

Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1121. Annual Book of 

ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM 

International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.20 (page 87) 

4.2.12 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Performing Value Analysis 

(VA) of Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1699. Annual Book of ASTM 

Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.23 (page 88) 

4.2.13 Federal Reserve Bank. 

URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/

The central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve Bank, is responsible for 

conducting monetary policy, regulating bank institutions, and providing some additional 

financial services. A significant amount of economic data that is commonly used by 

economists for research is available free to the public from the Federal Reserve’s 

website: http://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/. It includes a large range of 

information: industry debt, industry production, flow of funds, and selected interest rates. 

Two economic databases can be accessed through the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis: 

the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and the ArchivaL Federal Reserve 

Economic Database (ALFRED). Both include banking data, interest rates, consumer 

price indexes, employment data, population data, exchange rates, transactions, producer 

price indexes, and business data. The data is free to the public at 

http://www.stlouisfed.org/. 

93
4.2.14 Fuller, Sieglinde K. Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle 

Cost Analysis: Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special 

Publication 709, NISTIR 85-3273-21. Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute 

of Standards and Technology, April 2006.

URL: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/pdfs/ashb06.pdf 

The Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis is an annual 

publication. It supports the life-cycle cost methodology described in ASTM Standard E917 through the updating of the energy price projections and discount factors, which is 

needed for calculating life-cycle costs. 

4.2.15 Fuller, Sieglinde K., and Stephen R. Petersen. Life-Cycle Costing Manual for 

the Federal Energy Management Program. Hand Book 135, 1995 Edition. 

Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, 1995. 

ULR: http://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/build96/PDF/b96121.pdf

See reference 4.1.1.18 (page 80) 

4.2.16 Mackin, T.J., LTC Darrall Henderson, and J.W. Jones. A Method For 

Allocating Financial Resources to Combat Terrorism: Optimizing the 

Reduction of Consequences. 71st MORS Symposium, Working Group 16, 

June 13, 2003. Alexandria, VA: Military Operations Research Society, 

October 2003. 

URL: http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA418274 

This paper presents a mathematical expression for resource allocation to decrease 

vulnerability to terrorist attacks. It allows decision-makers to optimize the allocation of 

resources for risk mitigation against terrorist attacks. This article starts by establishing a 

basic approach to rank terrorist threats. It is available from the Homeland Security Digital 

Library discussed in reference 3.1.75 (https://www.hsdl.org) 

4.2.17 Marshall, Harold E. Audiovisual series on Least-Cost Energy Decisions for 

Buildings, Part I: Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing. Gaithersburg, MD: 

National Institute of Standards and Technology, April 1990. 

See reference 4.1.1.20 (page 80) 

4.2.18 Marshall, Harold E. Audiovisual series on Least-Cost Energy Decisions for 

Buildings, Part II: Uncertainty and Risk. Gaithersburg, MD: National 

Institute of Standards and Technology, April 1992. 

See reference 4.1.1.21 (page 80) 

94
4.2.19 Marshall, Harold E. Audiovisual series on Least-cost Energy Decisions for 

Buildings, part III: Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods. Gaithersburg, 

MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology. 

See reference 4.1.1.22 (page 81) 

4.2.20 NIST. Energy Escalation Rate Calculator. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/software.html

See source in section 4.1.3.5. 

4.2.21 Rogers, Mark R. Handbook of Key Economic Indicators. Chicago, IL: Irwin 

Professional Publishing, 1994. 

The Handbook of Key Economic Indicators explains, defines, and illustrates economic 

data that is used to assess the economy. It discusses issues such as the employment 

report, personal income report, consumer price index, producer price index, and gross 

domestic product. The data in this text is used to evaluate the past, present, and future 

state of the economy. It has a significant influence on capital returns (i.e., discount rates). 

4.2.22 Ruegg, Rosalie T. and Harold Marshall. Building Economics: Theory and 

Practice. New York, NY: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1990. 

See reference 4.1.1.24 (page 81) 

4.2.23 United States Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

URL: http://www.bea.gov/ 

Promoting a better understanding of the U.S. economy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis 

(BEA) provides economic accounts data that is used by decision-makers, researchers, and 

the American public. Private and public sector individuals closely watch some of the data 

provided by BEA. It is used by the White House, Congress, Federal Reserve, and Wall 

Street as an indicator of the economy. The Department of Commerce recognized the GDP 

as the bureau’s greatest achievement and as one of the three most influential measures 

that affect the U.S. financial market. The BEA has four economic accounts programs: 

National Accounts, which provides insight into production, consumption, investment, and 

saving; Regional Accounts, which generates data on economic activity by region, state, 

and county; Industry Accounts, which provides industry input and output tables; and 

International Accounts, which provides balance of payments data. 

4.2.24 United States Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

URL: http://www.bls.gov/ 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides detailed historic and current statistics on 

national inflation, the consumer price index, wages, employment, productivity, safety and 

health, demographics, and more. It is an important agency that collects economic and 

95
labor data for the federal government. BLS data is commonly used by economists and 

can be easily downloaded for statistical analysis. 

4.3 Analysis Strategies for Treating Uncertainty 

4.3.1 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Developing a Cost-Effective 

Risk Mitigation Plan for New and Existing Constructed Facilities.” ASTM 

E 2506. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2006. Vol. 04.12. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/ 

See reference 4.1.2.8 (page 84) 

4.3.2 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Economic Methods for 

Evaluating Investments in Buildings and Building Systems.” ASTM E 1185. 

Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, 

PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.9 (page 84) 

4.3.3 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Techniques for Treating 

Uncertainty and Risk in the Economic Evaluation of Buildings and Building 

Systems.” E 1369. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.10 (page 84) 

4.3.4 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Cost Risk of 

Buildings and Building Systems.” E 1946. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.16 (page 86) 

4.3.5 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of 

Buildings and Building Systems.” E 917. Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

URL: http://www.astm.org/

See reference 4.1.2.18 (page 86) 

96
4.3.6 Grossi, Patricia, Howard Kunreuther, and Chandu C. Patel. Catastrophe 

Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk. New York, NY: Springer 

Science and Business Media, 2005. 

See reference 3.1.39 (page 43) 

4.3.7 Marshall, Harold E. Techniques for Treating Uncertainty and Risk in the 

Economic Evaluation of Building Investments. NIST Special Publication 757. 

Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, 1988. 

This publication details uncertainty in input values and techniques that measure the risk 

that a project will have an unfavorable economic outcome. It discusses risk exposure and 

attitude along with breakeven analysis, sensitivity analysis, risk-adjusted discount rate, 

and decision analysis. 

4.3.8 Marshall, Harold E., Robert E. Chapman, and Chi J. Leng. “Risk Mitigation 

Plan for Optimizing Protection of Constructed Facilities.” Cost Engineering. 

Vol. 46, No. 8 (August 2004) 26. 

See reference 3.1.47 (page 46) 

4.3.9 Stewart, Mark G., and Robert E. Melchers. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of 

Engineering Systems. London: Chapman and Hall, 1997. 

This text is a multi-disciplinary guide that enables the layperson to gain understanding of 

risk analysis procedures. It applies to making decisions about the viability of an 

engineered system. To be a viable system it must be economical, fulfill its specified 

purpose, and perform at a specified level of safety. The term “system” can include 

“nuclear power plants, railway systems, bridges, petrochemical installations and many 

others.” This text guides the reader in evaluating a system, the probability that it fulfills 

its necessary requirements and the consequences if it does not fulfill those requirements. 

97
98
5 Summary and Recommendations for Further Research 

5.1 Summary 

This report supports the development of a cost-effective risk mitigation plan that involves 

(1) assessing the risks associated with natural and man-made hazards; (2) formulating 

combinations of mitigation strategies for constructed facilities exposed to those hazards; 

and (3) using economic tools to identify the most cost-effective combination of strategies. 

Furthermore, it asserts that developing a risk mitigation plan requires both guidance and 

data. Guidance is needed to help owners and managers to assess the risks facing their 

facility. Data about the frequency and consequences of natural and man-made hazards 

are needed when assessing the risks that a particular facility faces from these hazards. 

Estimates of the costs of protection are needed to ensure that safeguarding personnel and 

physical assets and satisfying financial constraints are kept in balance. Finally, guidance 

on the use of economic evaluation methods is needed to ensure that the correct method, 

or combination of methods, is used. 

The need for this report stems from the fact that although there is a great deal of highquality information available on risk assessment and risk management, natural and manmade hazards, and economic tools, there is no central source of data and tools to which 

the owners and managers of constructed facilities can turn for help in developing a costeffective risk mitigation plan. This report fulfills that need by providing an annotated 

bibliography of printed and electronic resources that serves as a central source of data and 

tools to help the owners and managers of constructed facilities develop a cost-effective 

risk mitigation plan. 

5.2 Recommendations for Further Research 

Given that new security-related materials are being published on a regular basis, it is 

recommended that this report be revised and reissued periodically. Periodic revision and 

reissue would enable new references to be incorporated and web links to be added, 

revised, or deleted, as needed. Periodic revision would ensure that owners and managers 

of constructed facilities would have access to a body of information that is pre-packaged 

in a format that well serves their need for making cost-effective responses to multiple 

hazards and timely in its coverage of this rapidly emerging field of vital importance to 

homeland security. 

99
100
Appendix A: Overview of the Three-Step Protocol for 

Developing a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan 

Protecting constructed facilities from damages from natural and man-made hazards 

in a cost-effective manner is a challenging task. The three-step protocol was 

designed by Chapman and Leng6

 to address this challenge. A three-step protocol 

provides owners and managers of constructed facilities, architects, engineers, 

constructors, other providers of professional services for constructed facilities, and 

researchers an approach for formulating and evaluating combinations of risk 

mitigation strategies. The three steps that decision-makers follow in the protocol 

are to (1) assess the likelihood that their facility and its contents will be damaged 

from natural and man-made hazards; (2) identify engineering, management, and 

financial strategies for abating the risk of damages; and (3) use standardized 

economic evaluation methods to select the most cost-effective combination of risk 

mitigation strategies to protect their facility. 

The end product of the three-step protocol is a cost-effective risk mitigation plan for 

either new or existing constructed facilities. The purpose of the risk mitigation plan 

is to provide the most cost-effective reduction in personal injuries, financial losses, 

and damages to new and existing constructed facilities. Thus, the risk mitigation 

plan incorporates perspectives from multiple stakeholders—owners and managers, 

occupants and users, and other affected parties—in addressing natural and manmade hazards. 

The three-step protocol is most effective when used in the project initiation and planning 

phases of the project delivery process. Consideration of alternative combinations of risk 

mitigation strategies early in the project delivery process allows both greater flexibility in 

addressing specific hazards and lower costs associated with their implementation. 

The three-step protocol insures that the combinations of mitigation strategies are 

formulated so that they can be rigorously analyzed with economic tools. Economic 

tools include evaluation methods, standards that support and guide the application 

of those methods, and software for implementing the evaluation methods. 

The organization of the three-step protocol is summarized in Table A.1. The table lists 

each key component and its associated subcomponents. Each key component in Table 

A.1 is a section in this chapter. The subcomponents map into this chapter’s subsections. 

Table A.1 provides a snapshot of the three-step protocol that is useful in visualizing how 

the key components and subcomponents build on and reinforce each other. Throughout 

this appendix, references are given to other chapters to highlight links to the guidance 

documents, software, and data needed to implement that key component/subcomponent 

of the protocol. 

 

6

 Chapman, Robert E. and Leng, Chi J. Cost-Effective Responses to Terrorist Risks in Constructed 

Facilities, NISTIR 7073 (Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, March 2004). 

101
Table A.1 Organization of the Three-Step Protocol 

Terminology Used in the Three-Step Protocol 

 order to gain a more complete understanding of the three-step protocol, it is useful to 

onstructed Facility—Any building, industrial facility, or component of the physical 

ice 

sset—Any constructed facility, its contents (physical systems, information, and 

. 

azard—Any phenomenon capable of causing damage to an asset. Hazards fall into two 

Key Component Subcomponent

Perform Risk Assessment Establish Risk Mitigation Objectives and Constraints

Conduct Assessment and Document Findings

Specify Combinations of Risk 

Mitigation Strategies for Evaluation Review Alternative Risk Mitigation Strategies

Select Candidate Combinations of Risk Mitigation Strategies

Develop Cost/Loss Estimates and Sequence of Cash Flows 

for Each Candidate Combination

Perform Economic Evaluation Select Appropriate Economic Method(s) for Evaluating the 

Candidate Combinations of Risk Mitigation Strategies

Compute Measures of Economic Performance for Each 

Candidate Combination

Recompute Measures of Economic Performance Taking into 

Consideration Uncertainty

Analyze Results and Identify the Most Cost-Effective 

Combination of Risk Mitigation Strategies

Prepare Report with Documentation Supporting 

Recommended Risk Mitigation Plan

In

define several key terms. The terms are arranged in a logical order. Basic concepts are 

introduced first; they are used to build a foundation for the more complex terms that 

follow. 

C

infrastructure. Examples of constructed facilities are: commercial and government off

buildings, health care facilities, educational facilities, refineries, chemical manufacturing 

facilities, power plants, bridges, and tunnels. 

A

personnel), or activities that have positive value to an owner or society as a whole

H

basic types: natural and man-made. 

102
Event—A means for classifying hazards. Associated with events are outcomes, 

utcome—The results of an event. Outcomes are characterized by their severity and 

ld 

ulnerability—Any weakness in an asset’s design, implementation, or operation that can 

onsequence—The immediate, short-, and long-term effects of an event-outcome 

nerally 

t 

isk—The product of the probability and consequences of an event-outcome combination 

in 

isk Mitigation Strategy—Preplanned and coordinated actions or system features that are 

conomic Evaluation Methods—A set of economic analysis techniques that consider all 

ost-Accounting Framework (Mitigation Costs, Event-Related Losses, Cost Item)—A 

nt 

vulnerabilities, and consequences. 

O

their occurrence probabilities. An event includes the full range of outcomes from no 

damage to extreme damage. For a given event, the sum of all outcome probabilities 

equals 1.0. Thus the no damage outcome would usually have a very high probability,

corresponding to maintenance of the status quo, whereas an extreme damage outcome 

(e.g., a Category 5 hurricane making landfall within a specified radius of an asset) wou

have a very low probability. 

V

result in damage to the asset. Such weaknesses can occur in facility characteristics, 

equipment properties, personnel behavior, locations of people and equipment, or 

operational and personnel practices. 

C

combination. The consequence of an event-outcome combination on an asset is ge

estimated as the amount of loss or damage that can be expected from that combination. 

Loss may be monetary, but may also include less tangible and therefore less easily 

quantified effects. Some examples of relevant consequences include: public or asse

personnel (e.g., occupants, users, or third parties) fatalities or injuries, property damage 

or loss, disruption of public or private operations, environmental damage, and loss of 

critical data. 

R

summed across all event-outcome combinations. This definition of risk refers to multiple 

hazards. Risk can also be expressed with regard to a single hazard or with regard to a 

specific event-outcome combination (e.g., a Category 5 hurricane making landfall with

a specified radius of an asset). 

R

designed to: reduce the damage caused by an event-outcome combination and/or reduce 

the occurrence probability of that event-outcome combination, support and complement 

first responders, facilitate field investigation and crisis management response, and 

facilitate recovery. Risk mitigation strategies may be classified under three broad 

headings: engineering, managerial, and financial. 

E

relevant costs associated with a project investment during its study period, comprising 

such techniques as life-cycle cost, savings-to-investment ratio, adjusted internal rate of 

return, and net savings. 

C

methodology for tracking how costs affect stakeholders (e.g., owners/managers, users/ 

customers, third parties). The cost-accounting framework promotes a detailed, consiste

103
breakdown of life-cycle costs. It is a means for facilitating the decision-making process 

by identifying unambiguously who bears which costs, how costs are allocated among 

several widely-accepted budget categories, and how costs are allocated among the thre

types of risk mitigation strategies. The cost-accounting framework makes a clear 

distinction between mitigation costs (i.e., the cost to implement and maintain a giv

combination of risk mitigation strategies) and event-related losses (i.e., for a given 

combination of risk mitigation strategies, the expected value of the product of the 

probability and consequences of an event-outcome combination summed over all e

outcome combinations). Event-related losses are a measure of risk. A cost item is a 

name/description assigned to a mitigation cost/event-related loss associated with a 

specific combination of risk mitigation strategies. 

e 

en 

ventulti-Hazard Approach—A comprehensive approach that stresses evaluating the full 

lternative—A combination of risk mitigation strategies. The alternative with the lowest 

ncertainty—Lack of certain, deterministic, values for the variable inputs used in an 

is, 

line 

inancial Risk—The probability of investing in a project whose economic performance is 

nquantified Effects—Factors that are an integral part of the decision process but are 

ost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan—That combination of risk mitigation strategies (i.e., 

.1 Perform Risk Assessment 

he first step in creating a cost-effective risk mitigation plan is a risk assessment for the 

e of 

M

range of natural and man-made hazards affecting an asset as a group. The multi-hazard

approach assumes that costs for protection against multiple hazards can be shared among

the hazards protected against, thereby reducing the cost of protection for any single 

hazard. 

A

first cost is frequently referred to as the base case against which other alternatives are 

compared. 

U

economic evaluation of a competing set of alternative combinations of risk mitigation 

strategies. Treatment of uncertainty begins with the establishment of a baseline analys

in which all inputs are set at their “best-guess” values. A sensitivity analysis is then 

conducted whereby one or more key inputs are systematically varied about their base

values. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to develop probabilistic levels of 

significance for key measures of economic performance (e.g., life-cycle costs). 

F

different from what is desired of expected. Financial risk is a byproduct of the Monte 

Carlo simulation. 

U

difficult or impossible to express as dollar amounts. 

C

alternative) that minimizes life-cycle costs. 

A

T

facility or group of facilities to be protected. This step includes specification of the 

decision-maker’s objectives (e.g., understand the nature of the risk to optimize the us

mitigation strategies), the facilities to be protected, the natural and man-made hazards to 

104
be considered, the composition of the risk assessment team, and documentation 

procedures. The risk assessment involves data collection to establish the likeliho

natural and man-made hazards as well as the on-site collection and documentation of 

facility vulnerabilities to those hazards. Estimates of the value of the facility’s assets a

the consequences of an event occurring are also produced as part of the risk assessment. 

od of 

nd 

.1.1 Establish Risk Mitigation Objectives and Constraints 

pecify the decision-maker’s objectives. This is crucial in defining the problem and 

entify the constructed facility or set of facilities to be evaluated. Identify the types of 

pecify the design or system objective that is to be accomplished. Identify any 

.1.2 Conduct Assessment and Document Findings 

orm an assessment team composed of individuals familiar with the type of facility or set 

ts on 

specific 

se information from the documents and software summarized in Chapter 2 to produce 

ake assignments and deploy the assessment team. Collect and compile information on 

se an agreed upon format, such as ASTM Standard Classifications E 15577

 or E 21038

A

S

determining the suitability of the economic evaluation method(s). 

Id

hazards to be evaluated. 

S

constraints that limit the available options to be considered. 

A

F

of facilities to be evaluated, individuals familiar with assessment tools and techniques, 

and individuals who have breadth and depth of experience and understand other 

disciplines and system interdependencies. Refer to the risk assessment guidance 

documents and software tools summarized in Chapter 2 to gain assessment insigh

specific hazards or classes of hazards. Supplement your data sources with those 

described in Section 2.3 to compile information on the likelihood and severity of 

hazards or classes of hazards. 

U

an assessment plan. Provide the assessment team with the tools, such as laptop 

computers and electronic forms/data collection sheets, needed to implement the 

assessment plan. 

M

the facility’s assets and develop estimates of the value of the facility’s assets. Collect and

compile information on specific hazard types, their likelihood, facility vulnerabilities, and 

consequences. 

U

or ASTM Standard Practice E 2166,9 to create a compiled set of information collected 

 

7

 ASTM International. “Standard Classification for Building Elements and Related Sitework—

UNIFORMAT II,” E 1557, Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: 

ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

al 

ASTM International. 

8

 ASTM International. “Standard Classification for Bridge Elements and Related Approach Work,” E 

2103, Annual Book of 9

 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Organizing and Managing Building Data,” E 2166, Annu

Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

105
from the assessment team that documents the findings of the risk assessment. Transmit 

the compiled set of information to a central repository to ensure that access to sensitive 

information can be limited to those with a legitimate need to know. 

A.2 Specify Combinations of Risk Mitigation Strategies for Evaluation 

The second step of the protocol focuses on identification of risk mitigation strategies. 

This step uses information from the risk assessment (e.g., estimates of the value of the 

facility’s assets and the consequences of an event occurring) to identify engineering, 

management and financial strategies to mitigate those consequences. The costs of 

implementing the alternative risk mitigation strategies and the associated reductions in 

consequences are also produced as part of this step in the protocol. 

A.2.1 Review Alternative Risk Mitigation Strategies 

This section describes three risk mitigation strategies—engineering, management, and 

financial. Each strategy is composed of multiple approaches for addressing hazards 

identified in the risk assessment. These approaches focus on hazard mitigation for a 

specific system or collection of systems and components, as well as facility and siterelated elements. Strategies may be used either singly or in combination. Past research 

indicates that combinations of risk mitigation strategies offer flexibility in dealing with 

both a single hazard and multiple hazards. 

Engineering

Engineering strategies are technical options in the construction or renovation of 

constructed facilities, their systems, or their subsystems designed to reduce the likelihood 

or consequences of disasters. Engineering strategies provide protection against both 

natural and man-made hazards. Engineering strategies also help defend against manmade hazards, where their ability to detect or deter may reduce the likelihood or 

consequences of such hazards. 

Protective engineering strategies are intended to reduce harm to occupants, damage to the 

structure, and disruption of business if a disaster occurs. Protective engineering strategies 

may improve the structural integrity of a building, facilitate evacuation of occupants, or 

circumvent compromised systems. 

There is some overlap among engineering strategies that deter, detect, and protect against 

terrorist attacks and other criminal acts. Detection and protective engineering strategies 

that are observable to potential terrorists may deter them from attacking. Closed-circuit 

television (CCTV), for example, is designed to detect unauthorized activities, but its 

visibility may deter these activities. 

Risk mitigation strategies may also be hazard-specific. Reinforced building shell, 

shatter-resistant glass, and use of barriers and bollards to achieve increased setback 

106
distances for existing buildings are examples of engineering strategies that protect a

blast. 

Manag

gainst 

ement

trategies can be procedural or technical. Some management strategies 

late to security, training, and communications. Others relate to decisions on where to 

y practices are the use of security personnel and procedures to prevent terrorist or 

riminal breaches from happening by detection or deterrence. They may be used to 

or 

ery if 

s are used primarily to prepare responses to disaster. Building owners 

nd managers may institute periodic emergency response drills for building occupants. 

dures. 

sponses with emergency personnel and to relay information and instructions to 

cy 

. 

to 

s 

 practice available to building owners and managers relates to the 

uilding’s location and ease of access. Decisions concerning location come into play for 

 a 

 the 

Management s

re

locate the building and who should have access to its systems and subsystems. Some 

management strategies complement engineering strategies, while others substitute for 

them. 

Securit

c

perform identification checks at building entrances, conduct background checks on 

individuals with access to sensitive areas and information, patrol facilities, and monit

CCTVs. Security personnel may also be used to capture attackers or facilitate recov

a breach occurs. 

Training practice

a

These drills may include information about evacuation routes or sheltering procedures to

improve survival during emergencies. Security and facility management personnel may 

receive training about proper techniques for responding to breaches and containing 

damage. Training may also be used for prevention: building security personnel and 

occupants may be trained in detection of suspicious activities and notification proce

Building owners and managers may also use communications practices to coordinate 

re

occupants during emergencies. Communications practices include setting up emergen

phone numbers or instituting building-wide audio or e-mail broadcast mechanisms

Coordinated communications can play a key role in occupant safety. Building owners 

and managers can develop communications procedures to coordinate with first 

responders, security staff, and other emergency personnel responding to the incident. 

Finally, communications practices can be used by firms occupying the building 

facilitate recovery, assess consequences, and minimize disruptions to the organization’

mission or business. 

Another management

b

new construction and for acquisitions of existing buildings. Setback distances, which 

have effects that are interdependent with some engineering strategies, are a component of 

the management decision about location. For new construction, managers may choose

site within a lot that satisfies a minimum setback distance. When acquiring existing 

property, managers may make a choice based on the physical characteristics of the 

available properties. Other structure-related management decisions concern access to

building itself and its sensitive areas. These access areas include attached garages, 

107
mailrooms, loading docks, side entrances, connected buildings, driveways, and rooftops. 

Sensitive areas include rooms housing HVAC equipment and controls; servers, netw

connections, and other information technology (IT) assets; and CCTV monitoring 

equipment. 

Financial 

ork 

wners and managers can explore financial strategies to reduce their pecuniary 

sks from natural and man-made hazards. There are two types of financial strategies to 

re to disasters by purchasing 

surance for worker’s compensation, property damage, business interruptions, event 

o two categories: government incentives and private 

centives. Government incentives are explicitly designed public policy instruments that 

es 

ers to 

t incentives that reduce the price 

at building owners and managers pay to protect their buildings. These incentives 

s of 

for risk mitigation in constructed facilities may also be offered by 

e private sector. Building owners have commercial relationships with insurers, tenants, 

 the adoption of either engineering or management 

rategies through smaller claims if a disaster occurs. To encourage owners to adopt risk 

fety features and are willing to pay a leasing premium. For owner-occupied buildings, 

n 

Building o

ri

address risk mitigation: insurance and financial incentives. 

Building owners and managers may reduce their risk exposu

in

cancellation, and liability. 

Financial incentives fall int

in

encourage decision-makers to make certain choices over others. Private incentiv

reward decision-makers for making some choices over others through private 

transactions. In the case of risk mitigation, government and private incentives are 

policies, measures, or characteristics that motivate building owners and manag

implement risk mitigation measures in their buildings. 

Federal, state, and local governments can institute direc

th

include subsidies or tax write-offs for investments in protective measures. Other 

examples of government-initiated financial incentives are formal cost sharing of the 

protective investments and loan guarantees to ease the short-term financial burden

structural upgrades. 

Financial incentives 

th

employees, potential buyers, and lenders. These parties may each benefit from a 

building’s reduced vulnerability. 

Insurance companies benefit from

st

mitigation, insurers may reduce insurance premiums for buildings that have protective 

measures. Building owners may also be able to obtain more favorable insurance policies, 

such as those that are longer term, have lower deductibles, or have fewer exclusions. 

Building owners who lease commercial space may find that tenants value a building’s

sa

employees may also value the added safety of a less vulnerable building. The perceptio

of danger may affect employees’ willingness to work in a particular location. 

108
Potential buyers are another party from which a building owner can extract rewards for 

the building’s risk mitigation measures. The installation of protective measures in a 

uilding is an improvement that increases the value of the asset. The building owner may 

g led to the 

uilding owner’s insolvency. To encourage owners to make choices that reduce the 

orm a project team to select combinations of risk mitigation strategies. The project 

 well as additional 

dividuals with specific knowledge about the facility or subject matter expertise. 

he 

 type. Use information from the documents and software 

mmarized in Chapter 3 to identify mitigation strategies for building elements and 

 on 

ards identified in the risk assessment. Prepare a brief 

arrative statement for each alternative in the set, describing what it does and how it 

t. 

Compil on the amount and timing of investment costs, operating costs, and 

aintenance and repair costs for each alternative combination of risk mitigation 

 each 

b

realize the benefit of increased property value when the property is sold. 

Building owners may also receive incentives from their lenders to protect their assets. 

Lenders would suffer direct financial losses if the destruction of a buildin

b

likelihood of such destruction, lenders may offer preferential financing terms on the 

building loan. Another way building owners are potentially rewarded in their 

relationships with financial institutions for their risk mitigation efforts is through the 

increased collateral value of their buildings. 

A.2.2 Select Candidate Combinations of Risk Mitigation Strategies 

F

team will include some of the individuals from the assessment team as

in

Provide the project team with access to the compiled set of information produced by t

risk assessment team. 

Review the findings of the assessment team on how individual building elements are 

affected by each hazard

su

hazard types. Employ a combination of mitigation strategies rather than focusing only

engineering-based approaches. 

Form each combination of risk mitigation strategies into a well-defined alternative, which 

addresses one or more of the haz

n

accomplishes it (e.g., how it addresses vulnerabilities identified in the risk assessment 

and what implications they have for reducing consequences). 

A.2.3 Develop Cost/Loss Estimates and Sequence of Cash Flows for Each Candidate 

Combination 

Consult with senior management to establish a first cost budget constraint for the projec

e information 

m

strategies. Eliminate from further consideration those alternatives whose initial 

investment costs exceed the first cost budget constraint for the project. 

Compile information on the likelihood and consequences of each hazard type for

alternative. Develop estimated costs for each consequence. 

109
Identify areas where information is impacted by uncertainty. Identify any significant 

effects that remain unquantified. 

A.3 Perform Economic Evaluation 

The third step in the protocol, economic evaluation, is the means through which 

et cost-effective risk mitigation plan is identified. 

he two previous steps, concerned with risk assessment and risk mitigation, formulate the 

ata 

t 

ns and alterations to existing constructed facilities, are characterized by 

ncertainties regarding project life, operation and maintenance costs, revenues, and other 

 input variables, 

s if they were certain estimates, and then to present results in a single-value, 

of 

of 

ffected 

r infrequently, but have significant 

onsequences. Following the three-step protocol when performing an economic 

l and 

irst, best-guess estimates are used to establish a baseline analysis. 

he baseline analysis uses fixed parameter values to calculate economic measures of 

nce 

 a 

aseline 

comp ing alternatives are analyzed and a

T

alternative risk mitigation strategies and provide the associated cost and hazard d

needed to compare the competing alternatives. The economic evaluation step includes 

the selection of the appropriate measures of economic performance, a rigorous analysis of 

the alternative risk mitigation strategies, the identification of the cost-effective risk 

mitigation plan, and the documentation necessary to support the recommendation of tha

plan. 

Investments in long-lived projects, such as the erection of new constructed facilities or 

additio

u

factors that affect project economics. Since future values of these variable factors are 

generally unknown, it is difficult to make reliable economic evaluations. 

The traditional approach to uncertainty in project investment analysis is to apply 

economic methods of project evaluation to best-guess estimates of project

a

deterministic fashion. When projects are evaluated without regard to uncertainty 

inputs to the analysis, decision-makers may have insufficient information to measure and 

evaluate the financial risk of investing in a project having a different measure 

performance from what is expected. 

Treatment of uncertainty and financial risk is particularly important for projects a

by natural and man-made hazards that occu

c

evaluation assures the user that relevant economic information, including information 

regarding uncertain input variables, is considered for projects affected by natura

man-made hazards. 

The economic evaluation step addresses uncertainty and financial risk in a structured, 

three-part manner. F

T

performance. The results of the baseline analysis allow the alternative combinations of

risk mitigation strategies to be ranked according to their economic measures of 

performance. The ranking of the alternatives and the calculated measures of performa

provide a frame of reference for the treatment of uncertainty and financial risk. Second,

sensitivity analysis is performed in which selected inputs are varied about their b

values. The sensitivity analysis is especially helpful in identifying shifts in the rank 

ordering of alternatives. The sensitivity analysis, although it addresses uncertainty in 

110
input values, produces only a crude measure of financial risk. Third, a Monte Carlo 

simulation is performed to obtain an explicit measure of financial risk associated with

competing alternatives. Monte Carlo simulation is especially useful in identifying shif

in the rank ordering of alternatives and documenting the factors and circumstances 

associated with those shifts. 

A.3.1 Select Appropriate Economic Method(s) for Evaluating the Candidate 

Combinations of Risk

 the 

ts 

 Mitigation Strategies 

nvestments 

in build ard Guide E 1185 to identify types 

f building design and system decisions that require economic evaluation and to match 

 with natural and manade hazards: (1) life-cycle costs (ASTM Standard Practice E 917);11 (2) present value 

y, since 

any decision-makers request multiple measures of magnitude (life-cycle costs and 

ternal 

ollow the instructions given in the selected evaluation method(s) for computing the 

alues. Cases where parameter values are allowed to vary are treated in Section A.3.3. 

 

Numerous methods are available for measuring the economic performance of i

ings and building systems. Use ASTM Stand 10

o

the technically appropriate economic methods with the decisions. 

Four economic evaluation methods addressed in ASTM Standard Guide E 1185 apply to

the development of a cost-effective risk mitigation plan for dealing

m

net savings (ASTM Standard Practice E 1074);12 (3) savings-to-investment ratio (ASTM 

Standard Practice E 964);13 and (4) adjusted internal rate of return (ASTM Standard 

Practice E 1057).14 The computer program described in reference 4.1.3.4 on page 91

produces calculated values for each of the four economic evaluation methods. 

More than one method can be technically appropriate for many design and system 

decisions. If more than one method is technically appropriate, use all that appl

m

present value net savings) and of return (savings-to-investment ratio and adjusted in

rate of return) to assess economic performance. 

A.3.2 Compute Measures of Economic Performance for Each Candidate Combination 

F

measure(s) of economic performance. Perform these computations with fixed parameter

v

10 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Economic Methods for Evaluating Investments in 

Buildings and Building Systems,” E 1185, Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West 

Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

11 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of Buildings and Building 

Systems,” E 917, Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM 

International. 

12 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Net Benefits for Investments in Buildings and 

Building Systems,” E 1074, Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, 

PA: ASTM International. 

13 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Benefit-to-Cost and Savings-to-Investment 

Ratios for Investments in Buildings and Building Systems,” E 964, Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. 

Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

14 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Measuring Internal Rate of Return and Adjusted Internal 

Rate of Return for Investments in Buildings and Building Systems,” E 1057, Annual Book of ASTM 

Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

111
Use the computed values of the measure(s) of economic performance to rank order the 

alternatives (combinations of risk mitigation strategies). Refer to the selected evaluation

ethod(s) to determine the criterion for ranking alternatives. 

cle cost method is used, the 

lternative with the lowest life-cycle cost has the best measure of economic performance. 

 

establishing basic assumptions and in estimating future costs. ASTM Standard Guide E 

36915 recommends techniques for treating uncertainty in parameter values in an 

k that 

r 

 and 

e E 

ensitivity analysis is a test of the results of an economic evaluation to changing values 

ut which there is uncertainty. It shows decision-makers 

ow the economic viability of a project changes as the discount rate, key unit costs, 

istic value for the parameter of 

terest. Then an analysis could be performed to see how each measure of performance 

 

m

Designate the alternative with the best measure of economic performance as the most 

cost-effective risk mitigation plan. For example, if the life-cy

a

Consequently, it qualifies as the most cost-effective risk mitigation plan. 

Examine any significant effects that remain unquantified. Note how these effects differ 

across alternatives. 

A.3.3 Recompute Measures of Economic Performance Taking into Consideration 

Uncertainty 

Decision-makers typically experience uncertainty about the correct values to use in 

1

economic evaluation. It also recommends techniques for evaluating the financial ris

a project will have a less favorable economic measure of performance than what is 

desired or expected. ASTM Standard Practice E 194616 establishes a procedure fo

measuring cost risk for buildings and building systems, using the Monte Carlo simulation 

technique as described in ASTM Standard Guide E 1369. The computer program 

described in reference 4.1.3.4 on page 91 incorporates the treatment of financial risk

uncertainty to produce a set of calculated values for each of the four economic evaluation 

methods referenced in Section A.3.1 that are consistent with ASTM Standard Guid

1369. 

Perform Sensitivity Analysis

S

of one or more parameters abo

h

escalation rates, and other critical parameters vary. 

A sensitivity analysis might use as inputs a pessimistic value, a value based on a measure 

of central tendency (mean or median), and an optim

in

(e.g., savings-to-investment ratio) changes as each input is considered in turn, while all 

other parameters are held constant. A sensitivity analysis can also be performed on 

15 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Selecting Techniques for Treating Uncertainty and Risk in the 

Economic Evaluation of Buildings and Building Systems,” E 1369, Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 

2005. Vol. 04.11. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 16 ASTM International. “Standard Practice Measuring Cost Risk of Buildings and Building Systems,” E 

1946, Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 

112
different combinations of parameters. That is, several parameters are altered at once and

then a measure of economic performance is computed. 

The key advantage of sensitivity analyses is that they are easily constructed and 

computed and the results are easy to explain and understand. Their disadvantage is that 

ey do not produce results that can be tied to probabilistic levels of significance (e.g., the 

onte Carlo simulation varies a small set of key parameters either singly or in 

imental design. Associated with each key parameter is 

 probability distribution function from which values are randomly sampled. The major 

of 

 also the variability of that value. In addition, 

robabilistic levels of significance can be attached to the computed measures of 

1946 

TM Standard Practice 

 917). ASTM Standard Practice E 917 provides direction on how to apply Monte Carlo 

de 

hazards han most building investment decisions. Consequently, 

uidance is provided to help identify key characteristics and the level of effort that will 

e 

omputed for each of the three types of analysis: (1) fixed 

arameter values; (2) sensitivity analyses; and (3) Monte Carlo simulations. 

th

probability that the savings-to-investment ratio is less than 1.0). 

Perform Monte Carlo Simulation

M

combination according to an exper

a

advantage of the Monte Carlo simulation technique is that it permits the effects 

uncertainty to be rigorously analyzed through reference to a derived distribution of a 

project’s measures of economic performance. Their disadvantage is that they require a 

computer program to implement. 

In a Monte Carlo simulation, not only the expected value of the measures of economic 

performance can be computed but

p

economic performance for each alternative under consideration. 

Key elements of ASTM Standard Guide E 1369 and ASTM Standard Practice E 

have been incorporated into the calculation of life-cycle costs (AS

E

simulation when performing economic evaluations of alternatives designed to mitigate 

the effects of natural and man-made hazards that occur infrequently but have significant 

consequences. ASTM Standard Practice E 917 contains a comprehensive example on the 

application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating the merits of alternative risk 

mitigation strategies for a prototypical data center. 

A.3.4 Analyze Results and Identify the Most Cost-Effective Combination of Risk

Mitigation Strategies 

Choosing among alternatives designed to reduce the impacts of natural and man-ma

 is more complicated t

g

promote a better-informed decision. This guidance draws on information presented in 

Sections A.3.2 and A.3.3. 

Review the calculated values of each alternative’s measures of performance. Include th

measures of performance c

p

113
Use the performance criterion from each selected evaluation method to rank order 

alternatives for each type of analysis (fixed parameter values, sensitivity analyses, an

Monte Carlo simulations). Document differences in alternative rankings amo

d 

ng the three 

pes of analysis. Focus on circumstances under which the most cost-effective risk 

her 

 of 

ances under which the 

commended alternative did not have the best measure of economic performance. 

nd its 

d 

alues of the measures of economic performance. 

 a report of an economic evaluation, state the objective, the constraints, the alternatives 

econom formance of each alternative. Make explicit the discount rate; the study 

eriod; the main categories of cost data, including initial costs, recurring and 

s 

ptions or 

on-technical 

ersons. The generic format calls for a description of the significance of the project, the 

 

ty

mitigation plan identified in the fixed parameter values analysis is replaced by anot

alternative (other alternatives) when the effects of uncertainty are considered. Use the 

results of the Monte Carlo simulations to identify the characteristics associated with 

ranking changes for those alternatives under consideration. 

Recommend an alternative as the most cost-effective risk mitigation plan. Provide a 

rationale for the recommendation. Include as part of the rationale, findings from each

the three types of analysis. Include a discussion of circumst

re

Describe any significant effects that remain unquantified. Explain how these effects 

impact the recommended alternative. Refer to ASTM Standard Practice E 176517 a

adjunct for guidance on how to present unquantified effects along with the compute

v

A.3.5 Prepare Report with Documentation Supporting Recommended Risk Mitigation 

Plan 

In

considered, the key assumptions and data, and the computed value for each measure of 

ic per

p

nonrecurring costs, and resale values; and grants and incentives if integral to the decisionmaking process. State the method of treating inflation. Specify the assumptions or cost

that have a high degree of uncertainty and are likely to have a significant impact on the 

results of the evaluation. Document the sensitivity of the results to these assum

data. Describe any significant effects that remain unquantified in the report. 

Use the generic format for reporting the results of an economic evaluation described in 

ASTM Standard Guide E 2204.18 It provides technical persons, analysts, and researchers

a tool for communicating results in a condensed format to management and n

p

analysis strategy, a listing of data and assumptions, and a presentation of the computed 

values of any measures of economic performance. ASTM Standard Guide E 2204 

contains a comprehensive example evaluating the merits of alternative risk mitigation 

strategies for a prototypical data center summarized using the generic format. 

17 ASTM International. “Standard Practice for Applying the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to 

Multiattribute Decision Analysis of Investments Related to Buildings and Building Systems,” E 1765, 

Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International. 18 ASTM International. “Standard Guide for Summarizing the Economic Impacts of Building-Related 

Projects,” E 2204, Annual Book of ASTM Standards: 2005. Vol. 04.12. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM 

International. 

114
To complete the report, include as supporting documentation information compiled 

the risk assessment and a description of the process by which combinations of risk 

mitigation strategies were assembled. 

from 

115
116
Appendix B: Clearinghouses and Web Portals 

1. American Re. 

URL: http://www.amre.com/ 

American Re is a reinsurance company and a member of the Munich Re Group, which is 

a prominent reinsurer. American Re provides numerous publications, articles, and web 

links on its website. Some of the resources are produced by American Re while others are 

produced by separate public and private entities. The resources from this site are 

categorized into topics related to the insurance industry: 

Actuarial Electronic Commerce Healthcare/Medical Product Recall 

Agriculture Emerging Markets Housing Contractors Professional Liability 

Alternative 

Markets Employment Liabilities 

Industry Publications 

and News Services Property 

Arson/Fire Engineering/Technical Risk 

Insurance Association 

and Organizations Public Entities 

Automotive Environmental Liability International Media Reinsurance 

Captives Finance And Investment Internet Religious 

Catastrophe Financial Institutions Legal Risk Management 

Chemicals Financial Products Litigation Management 

Risk Management 

Resources 

Claims Financial Ratings Marine (Inland Marine) 

Sexual Misconduct & 

Abuse 

Claims Issues General Liability Multi-Line P & C Taxation 

Economic 

Information 

Government Statistics (USFederal) Market Overview Underwriting 

Educational 

Government Statistics (USStates) Nonprofit Entities Weather/Climate 

Product Liability Workers' Compensation 

2. CBS News. “CBS News Disaster Links.” 

URL: http://www.disasterlinks.net/ 

This website provided by CBS contains several hundred sites; many of the sites are 

discussed within this guide. WebPages and links change at a rapid rate, and as a result, a 

few of the links are dead. This site is categorized around the following 30 topics: 

117
Airplane Disasters El Nino Oil Spills 

Biological and Chemical 

Weapons Emergency Management Relief Agencies 

Cyber Crime Floods Severe Weather 

Disaster Communication Heat Space Weather 

Disaster Education Hurricanes 

State Disaster 

Agencies 

Disaster Imagery Icebergs Terrorism 

Disaster Monitoring 

Software International Disasters Typhoons 

Disease Landslides Weather Maps 

Drought Lightning Wind Chill 

Earthquakes Oceans Winter Storms 

3. Center for State Homeland Security. 

URL: http://www.cshs-us.org/ 

This site provides information on counterterrorism reports, homeland security readings, 

homeland security legislation, public health, infrastructure protection, agricultural 

terrorism, and a list of homeland security offices. The homeland security readings section 

has links to numerous news articles on such topics as the evacuation of pets during a 

disaster, nuclear-plant security, cargo container inspections, and hurricane Katrina. The 

section on homeland security legislation, pending and enacted, includes a list of relevant 

links. The section on counterterrorism reports is chronologically organized and dates 

back to October 1997. The section on public health and bio-defense readings lists news 

articles and other media that discusses public health and preparedness. Each article 

includes a short description and a link. The readings on infrastructure protection include a 

list a dozen articles with descriptions that cover a wide variety of topics. Examples 

include nuclear power plants, transit, passenger rail security, and chemical plant security. 

The agriculture terrorism section has about a dozen articles. 

4. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 

URL: http://www.epa.gov/

See reference 2.3.2.1 (page 27) 

5. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/ 

See Reference 2.1.6 (page 9) 

6. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Catalog of FEMA Earthquake 

Publications. Washington DC: FEMA, April 2006. 

URL: http://www.nehrp.gov/info/PDF/NehrpCatalog2006-FEMA2.pdf 

This publication lists all the FEMA Earthquake Publications. There are eighteen pages of 

publications; most of them are available online. 

118
7. Federal Emergency Management Agency. “Risk Management Series

Publications.” 

URL: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/rms/index.shtm 

FEMA’s Risk Management Series publications (see reference 3.1.21 through 3.1.34 on 

pages 38 through 42), which are available on FEMA’s website, are directed at providing 

design guidance for mitigating terrorist risks. The objective of the Risk Management 

Series is to reduce physical damage to structural and nonstructural components of 

buildings and related infrastructure, and to reduce casualties resulting from bomb, 

chemical, biological, and radiological attacks. The emphasis of this series is to improve 

security in high occupancy buildings to better protect the nation from potential threats by 

identifying actions and designs to strengthen buildings. 

8. Government Printing Office. “GPO Access.”

URL: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/ 

The U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO) provides information from all three 

branches of the government to the public. Using the GPO website one can identify 

departments dealing with terrorism, telecommunications, statistics, radiation, 

construction, and a number of other topics (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/topics/index.html). 

This site serves as a gateway to all federal agencies and departments. 

9. High Plains Regional Climate Center and University of Nebraska. “Climate and 

Weather: Data, Information, and Products Clearinghouse.” 

URL: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/clearinghouse/index.html 

See Reference 2.3.1.5 (page 21) 

10. Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS). 

URL: http://www.ibhs.org

See reference 3.1.41 (page 44) 

11. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). 

URL: http://www.unisdr.org/

See reference 3.1.44 (page 45) 

12. Marlatt, Greta E. Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Terrorism/Warfare: A 

Bibliography. Dudley Knox Library: Naval Postgraduate School, September 

2003. 

URL: http://library.nps.navy.mil/home/bibs/chemtoc.htm

See reference 2.3.2.8 (page 28) 

119
13. Munich Re Group. 

URL: http://www.munichre.com/ 

See Reference 3.3.2.10 (page 66) 

14. NASA. “Natural Disaster Reference Database.” 

URL: http://ndrd.gsfc.nasa.gov/ 

This site lists a large number of articles by natural hazard topic: wildfire, tsunami, 

avalanche, eruptions, earthquake, landslide, flooding, hurricane, storm surge, tornadoes, 

cyclones, drought, typhoon, disease, and natural disasters in general. These articles are 

technical in nature and discuss the details of weather modeling. The website provides the 

title, author, and source of the article along with an abstract, but there is no link to the 

article. 

15. National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). 

URL: http://www.nehrp.gov/

See reference 3.1.55 (page 48) 

16. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA). 

URL: http://www.nfpa.org

See reference 2.3.2.9 (page 28) 

17. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): Building and Fire 

Research Laboratory. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov

See reference 2.2.10 (page 18) 

18. National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT). 

URL: http://www.mipt.org/

See reference 3.3.2.11 (page 67) 

19. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

URL: http://www.noaa.gov/

See reference 2.3.1.10 (page 22) 

20. RAND Corporation. May 8, 2006. 

URL: http://www.rand.org/

See reference 2.1.21 (page 13) 

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21. Risk Management Solutions Incorporated (RMS). 

URL: http://www.rms.com/

See reference 2.1.22 (page 14) 

22. Swiss Re. 

URL: http://www.swissre.com/ 

See Reference 3.3.2.22 (page 69) 

23. Tec-Com Incorporated. RiskWorld. 

URL: http://www.riskworld.com/ 

See Reference 2.2.18 (page 20) 

24. United States Department of Health and Human Services. “Disasters and 

Emergencies.” 

URL: http://www.hhs.gov/disasters/index.shtml

The “Disasters and Emergencies” website is developed by the U.S. Department of Health 

and Human Services and provides a number of links to other departments and agencies 

related to the following disaster categories: biological, chemical, and radiological 

weapons; bioterrorism, disasters and emergencies; environmental disasters; homeland 

security; natural disasters/extreme weather; mental health and traumatic events; safety of 

the water supply; and other resources. 

25. United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS). 

URL: http://www.dhs.gov

See Reference 3.1.75 (page 53) 

26. United States Department of Homeland Security. “Homeland Security Digital 

Library.” 

URL: https://www.hsdl.org 

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) established the Homeland Security Digital 

Library (HSDL), which is restricted to researchers and government employees. To gain 

access to the library visit the webpage and apply for a password. DHS will probably 

respond within a few days. This extensive database contains reports, articles, and other 

publications that can be browsed by topic or searched using a basic or advanced search 

option. Most of the entries in the HSDL have a link to view the full publication. 

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27. United States Geological Survey (USGS). 

URL: http://www.usgs.gov/ 

See Reference 2.3.1.20 (page 25) 

28. United States Geological Survey: National Geospatial Program Office. 

URL: http://www.usgs.gov/ngpo/

See Reference 2.3.1.23 (page 25) 

29. University of Colorado-Boulder Natural Hazards Center. 

URL: http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/resources/sites.html 

This website provides an annotated index of useful disaster web sites. Each entry includes 

the web address and a brief description of the content from the site. They are grouped 

into eighteen categories: 

All hazards Email Lists Severe Weather 

Career/Employment Floods Snow Avalanche 

Climate Change Hurricanes Space Hazards 

Data and Costs Images Tsunamis 

Disaster Health landslides Volcanoes 

Earthquakes Satellites Wildfire 

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Appendix C: Policies, Research, and Theory 

1. Arrow, Kenneth J. “The Theory of Risk-Bearing: Small and Great Risks.” 

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 12 (1996): 103-111. 

This article discusses risk-sharing and insurance as mutually advantageous transactions. 

It explores the ideal model of insurance versus real world insurance and offers some 

explanations. 

2. Boadway, Robin, Maurice Marchand, Manuel Leite-Monteiro, and Pierre 

Pestieau. “Social Insurance and Redistribution with Moral Hazard and Adverse 

Selection.” CORE Discussion Papers. 2004/83. December 7, 2004. 

URL: http://www.core.ucl.ac.be/services/psfiles/dp04/dp2004_83.pdf 

This paper studies “how equity and efficiency considerations should be traded off in 

choosing the optimal coverage of social insurance.” The study considers the influence of 

ex post moral hazard, adverse selection, individual’s effect on event loss, and private 

supplements to social insurance. 

3. Bush, George W. “Homeland Security Presidential Directives.” 

URL: http://www.whitehouse.gov

The Homeland Security Presidential Directives (HSPD) record and communicate 

security decisions by the president. To date, there are thirteen directives. In addition to 

the White House website, these documents can be accessed at 

http://www.fbiic.gov/executiveorders.htm and through the Government Printing Office 

website http://www.gpoaccess.gov/. HSPD-1 outlines the functions and organization of 

the Homeland Security Council. HSPD-2 establishes the Foreign Terrorist Tracking Task 

Force and updates immigration policies concerning the INS, international students, and 

data sharing. The purpose of HSPD-3 is to establish the Homeland Security Advisory 

System, which uses a color coded scheme to represent the current level of threat to U.S. 

security. HSPD-4 is classified, but an unclassified version is available to the public. It 

discusses the governments approach to countering weapons of mass destruction. In 

HSPD-5 the president enhances the response to domestic incidences and establishes a 

national incident management system. HSPD-6 outlines the integration and use of 

screening information. The purpose of HSPD-7 is to establish a national policy to identify 

and prioritize critical infrastructure and resources. HSPD-8 establishes a national 

domestic “all-hazards preparedness goal” for improved delivery of federal assistance to 

state and local governments. HSPD-9 develops a national policy to protect the agriculture 

and food system against natural and man-made disasters. Biological weapons are 

discussed and addressed in HSPD-10. The subject of HSPD-11 is the “comprehensive 

terrorist-related screening procedures.” HSPD-12 establishes a common standard for the 

identification of federal employees, and HSPD-13 provides guidelines in order to protect 

U.S. maritime interests. 

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4. Daniels, Ronald J., Donald F. Kettl, and Howard Kunreuther. On Risk and 

Disaster. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2006. 

This text provides a discussion of the events caused by hurricane Katrina and raises 

questions concerning risk and the response to disasters in the context of public and 

private roles. The text provides expert insight concerning better preparedness, mitigation, 

and response to disasters. Part one of the text discusses the gulf coast and its future. Part 

two discusses risk management, and part three discusses private sector risk management 

strategies. The last section, part four, explores the government’s role in risk management 

and disaster response. 

5. Environmental Systems Research Institute. GIS for Homeland Security.

Redlands, CA: ESRI Press, 2005. 

This booklet discusses the use of geographic information systems (GIS) as a tool for 

homeland security. It discusses decision making, threat identification, response, 

preparedness, agriculture, infrastructure, and other GIS related topics. 

6. Glickman, Theodore S. and Michael Gough. Readings in Risk. Washington DC: 

Resources for the Future, 1995. 

This text is a collection of articles on environmental and technological risks. It discusses 

health risk assessment, technological risk assessment, and risk communication. A number 

of the articles are listed below. 

• Application of Risk Assessment to Food Safety Decision Making 

• Risk, Science, and Democracy 

• Cost-Benefit Analysis: An Ethical Critique 

• Rating the Risks 

• Ranking Possible Carcinogenic Hazards 

• Social Benefit Versus Technological Risk 

• Assessing Risks from Health Hazards: An Imperfect Science 

• The Emergence of Risk Communication Studies: Social and Political Context 

7. Godschalk, David R., Timothy Beatley, Philip Berke, David J. Brower, Edward 

J. Kaiser, Charles C. Bohl, and R. Matthew Goebel. Natural Hazard Mitigation. 

Washington, DC: Island Press, 1999. 

This text offers recommendations for reforming federal and state strategies that concern 

natural hazard mitigation. It discusses several natural disasters and the actions that were 

taken by the local, state, and federal governments to mitigate them. Within the text are 

tables and discussions of current disaster funding and a review of current policies. 

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8. Government Accountability Office. Catastrophe Risk: U.S. and European 

Approaches to Insure Natural Catastrophe and Terrorism Risks. GAO-05-199. 

Washington DC: GAO, February 2005. 

URL: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05199.pdf 

This publication provides an overview of the insurance industry and its capacity to cover 

low probability high cost events. It analyzes catastrophe bonds and discusses the 

approaches that six European countries have used for natural hazard and terrorist risks. 

9. Government Accountability Office. Risk Management: Further Refinements 

Needed to Assess Risks and Prioritize Protective Measures at Posts and other 

Infrastructure. GAO-06-91. Washington DC: U.S. Government Accountability 

Office, December 2005. 

URL: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0691.pdf 

This publication examines the Coast Guard, the Office for Domestic Preparedness, and 

the Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection Directorate and the measures they 

have taken to protect the nation against threats. It also makes a number of 

recommendations as to how these entities can improve protection. 

10. Hamm, Mark S. Crimes Committed by Terrorist Groups: Theory, Research, and 

Prevention. Document 211203. Award 2003-DT-CX-0002. 

URL: http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/211203.pdf 

This research report examines major terrorist trials in order to identify the techniques and 

attributes of various terrorist organization types. It shows that terrorist-oriented 

organizations have distinguishing features that can be identified by conventional criminal 

investigations. The report could be useful to any organization that might come in contact 

with terrorist group activities (e.g., financial institutions, law enforcement, and security). 

11. Heal, Geoffrey, and Howard Kunreuther. “You Can Only Die Once: PublicPrivate Partnerships for Managing the Risks of Extreme Events.” Risk 

Management Strategies in an Uncertain World (Conference). New York: April 

12-13, 2002. 

URL: http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/gheal/EconomicTheoryPapers/index.html 

This paper explores private investment in security in the context of others behavior and 

discusses security investment from a social and private perspective. The question that 

motivates Heal and Kunreuther is whether “organizations, such as airline companies and 

computer network managers, invest in security to a degree that is adequate from either a 

private or social perspective.” 

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12. Jetter, James, and David Proffitt. “Effectiveness of Expedient Sheltering in 

Place in Commercial Buildings.” Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency 

Management. Vol. 3, No. 2, Article 4. 2006. 

URL: http://www.bepress.com/jhsem/vol3/iss2/4/ 

This article examines the effectiveness of shelter in place in commercial buildings for 

protection against airborne hazards. It makes comparisons of leaky, typical, and tight 

buildings and shelters for various scenarios. 

13. Kunreuther, Howard. “Mitigating Disaster Losses through Insurance.” Journal 

of Risk and Uncertainty. Vol. 12, Numbers 2-3 (May 1996): 171-187. 

This article discusses the reasons why homeowners have not voluntarily adopted costeffective measures for disaster mitigation. It then suggests that insurance and wellenforced building codes be used to mitigate future damage. According to this article, 

financial institutions and insurance companies play a key role in mitigation. 

14. Kunreuther, Howard, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, and Beverly Porter. “Assessing, 

Managing and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism.” National 

Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper 10179 (December 2003). 

URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10179 

This paper discusses risk assessment, risk management, and risk financing as they relate 

to catastrophic terrorist risk. It explores the implications of the Terrorism Risk Insurance 

Act (TRIA) and models for assessing risk for establishing premiums. International 

experiences with terrorism insurance and successful terrorism insurance programs are 

discussed. 

15. Kunreuther, Howard, and Mark Pauly. “Neglecting Disaster: Why Don’t 

People Insure Against Large Losses.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. Vol. 28, 

Number 1 (January 2004): 5-21. 

This paper discusses why people do not purchase insurance with favorable premiums for 

low-probability high-loss events. It proposes that “individuals maximize expected utility 

but face an explicit or implicit cost to discovering the true probability of rare events,” 

which inhibits the purchase of insurance. 

16. Kunreuther, Howard, Nathan Novemsky, and Daniel Kahneman. “Making Low 

Probabilities Useful.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. Vol. 23, Number 2 

(September 2001): 103-120. 

This paper discusses the perception of low probability-high consequence events. It 

concludes that a significant amount of information must be provided for a layperson to 

determine the difference between low probability events. One needs to present 

comparison scenarios that are located on a probability scale to evoke people’s feelings of 

risk. 

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17. Marshall, Harold. “Economic Approaches to Homeland Security for 

Constructed Facilities.” Tenth Joint W055-W065 International Symposium on 

Construction Innovation and Global Competitiveness. September 11, 2002. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/publications/proceedings/CIBKeynoteAddress.pdf 

This article presents economic models to select optimal protective strategies against 

terrorist-induced damages. It uses life-cycle cost and net savings models in order to 

choose the cost-effective level of investment. This article also provides a method to select 

the optimal combination of protective strategies. 

18. McCarthy, John A. Critical Infrastructure Protection Program: Workshop II 

Working Papers. Fairfax, VA: George Mason University Press, 2004. 

URL: http://cipp.gmu.edu/research/Workshop2WorkingPapers.php 

This text includes numerous working papers on critical infrastructure protection. The 

website listed above provides a link that has the titles to all the papers. Topics of the 

papers include public policy, power grids and internet networks, cyber security, wireless 

telecommunications, terrorism scenarios for water distribution, indoor air quality alert 

systems, risk assessment, and terrorism insurance. There are over 35 articles in this text. 

19. National Capital Planning Commission. Designing for Security in the Nation’s 

Capital. Washington DC: NCPC, October 2001. 

URL: http://www.ncpc.gov/planning_init/security/DesigningSec.pdf 

This text describes the interim security measures that were necessary following 

September 11, 2001. It discusses design solutions for Pennsylvania Avenue and its 

impact on historic resources, traffic, and the downtown economy. 

20. National Capital Planning Commission. National Capital Urban Design and 

Security Plan. Washington DC: NCPC, October 2002. 

URL: http://www.ncpc.gov/publications_press/NCUDSP.html 

The National Capital Planning Commission has developed this design strategy to address 

necessary security measures in the nation’s capital. Currently, security is being addressed 

through improvised defense measures that have had a negative impact on the life and 

society of Washington DC. This text focuses primarily on perimeter building security and 

does not address other kinds of security measures. The purpose of this plan is to “restore 

the beauty and dignity of the Nation’s Capital by integrating building perimeter security 

into an attractive streetscape and by coordinating the design and installation of 

streetscape projects.” 

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21. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

(START). 

URL: http://www.start.umd.edu/ 

The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

(START) is a Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence, which aims at 

exploring the methods and resources to understand terrorism and its risks. A number of 

articles, books, book chapters, conference papers, and reports are listed on their website. 

22. National Institute of Standards and Technology. Performance of Physical 

Structures in Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita: A Reconnaissance Report.

NIST Technical Note 1476. Gaithersburg, MD: NIST, June 2006. 

URL: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/investigations/pubs/NIST_TN_1476.pdf 

This report presents the findings that came from reconnaissance following Hurricanes 

Katrina and Rita. It discusses environmental effects (e.g., wind speed, storm surge, 

flooding), building damage, infrastructure damage (including levee and floodwall 

damage), and damage to residential structures caused by the two hurricanes. The report 

identifies three areas of study that need to be addressed: “(1) evaluate the performance of 

the New Orleans flood protection system and provide credible scientific and engineering 

information for guiding the immediate repair and future upgrade of the system; (2) 

develop risk-based storm surge maps for use in flood-resistant design of structures, and 

(3) evaluate and, if necessary, modify the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale’s treatment of 

storm surge effects due to hurricanes.” 

23. National Institute of Standards and Technology. Final Report on the Collapse of 

the World Trade Center Towers. NIST NCSTAR 1. Gaithersburg, MD: NIST, 

September 2005. 

URL: http://wtc.nist.gov/NISTNCSTAR1CollapseofTowers.pdf 

This report details and reconstructs the collapse of the World Trade Center towers. It 

details the construction of the towers, the materials, and the events that caused their 

collapse. The report provides NIST’s findings from the investigation of 30 

recommendations in eight areas to improve building safety: structural integrity, fire 

endurance of structures, fire resistant design of structures, improved active fire 

protection, improved building evacuation, improved emergency response, improved 

procedures and practices, and education and training. 

24. National Science Foundation. 

URL: http://www.nsf.gov/ 

The National Science Foundation is a federal agency created “to promote the progress of 

science; to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; [and] to secure the 

national defense...” Their website has a number of publications and statistics that are 

available to view over the internet. Publications include a large variety of topics. 

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Statistics include the following categories: Education, federal government, industry, 

international, research and development, social dimensions, state, and workforce. 

25. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. “Economic 

Consequences of Terrorism.” 

URL: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/60/1935314.pdf 

This paper discusses and analyzes the effects of terrorism on the economy and the effect 

of policies that were developed following the September 11 attack. It purports that “good 

crisis management helped restore confidence,” but some policies could have “detrimental 

economic consequences” in the future. This paper has a number of facts and figures, but 

tends to be non-technical in nature. 

26. Pate-Cornell, M. Elisabeth. “Global Risk Management.” Journal of Risk and 

Uncertainty. 12 (1996): 239-255. 

This article discusses risk management strategies based on probability risk analysis and 

other management factors for industries that deal with hazardous systems. It compares 

the use of insurance versus actual risk reduction and explores the implications of several 

case study illustrations: tiles of the U.S. space shuttle, offshore platforms, marine 

pipelines, and anesthesia in modern hospitals. 

27. Priest, George L. “The Government, the Market, and the Problem of 

Catastrophic Loss.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 12 (1996): 219-237. 

This article discusses comparative advantage in regards to the government and private 

industry providing insurance for catastrophic losses. The article argues that the 

government is less effective than the private insurance market in providing coverage of 

losses. 

28. Smith, V. Kerry, and Daniel G. Hallstrom. Designing Benefit-Cost Analyses for 

Homeland Security Policies. EMW-2004-GR-0112. Washington DC: United 

States Department of Homeland Security, August 11, 2004. 

URL: https://www.hsdl.org/ 

This paper discusses the methodological and empirical issues concerning benefit-cost 

analyses for homeland security. It first describes the measurement of the economic value 

of policies that reduce risk, and then it uses “parallel” hazards as a source of information 

for behavioral responses to large-scale disasters. 

29. Stern, Paul C. and Harvey V. Fineberg. Understanding Risk: Informing 

Decisions in a Democratic Society. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 

1996. 

This text provides methods to improve communication between researchers and decisionmakers. It illustrates that translating scientific information is not sufficient for 

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characterizing risks to decision-makers. “Risk Characterization should be a decisiondriven activity, directed toward informing choices and solving problems... [It] is the 

outcome of an analytic-deliberative process.” 

30. United States Department of Homeland Security. Nation Wide Plan Review: 

Phase 2. Washington DC: United States Department of Homeland Security, 

June 16, 2006. 

URL: http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/Prep_NationwidePlanReview.pdf 

This publication reviews the emergency plans of all the states and 75 urban areas across 

the nation. It found that although there is renewed emphasis on planning and many new 

initiatives current planning is “unsystematic and not linked within a national planning 

system.” It recommends a “modernization of our nation’s planning processes” is essential 

for an adequate response to catastrophe. 

31. United States Department of Homeland Security. National Infrastructure 

Protection Plan: Base Plan. January 2006. 

URL: www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/NIPP_Plan.pdf

The National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) is intended to protect the nation’s 

critical infrastructure and key resources through deterrence, mitigation, response, and 

prevention. The NIPP provides a unifying structure for existing protection efforts to be 

unified. The program focuses on three objectives: building security partnerships, 

implementing a long-term risk reduction program, and optimizing protection resources. 

32. United States Department of Homeland Security. National Response Plan. 

December 2004. 

URL: http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/NRP_FullText.pdf 

The National Response Plan was conceived in order to establish a comprehensive allhazards approach to domestic incidents, which includes prevention, preparedness, 

response, and recovery. This document discusses planning; the role of local, state, and 

federal government; the role of the private sector; the operations process; incident 

management; and plan maintenance/management. 

33. United States Department of Homeland Security. Securing Our Homeland: U.S. 

Department of Homeland Security Strategic Plan. 2004. 

URL: http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/DHS_StratPlan_FINAL_spread.pdf 

This illustrated document provides the vision and goals for the Department of Homeland 

Security. The stated mission of the department is to “lead the unified national effort to 

secure America... prevent and deter terrorist attacks... protect against and respond to 

threats and hazards to the nation... ensure safe and secure borders, welcome lawful 

immigrants and visitors, and promote the free-flow of commerce.” 

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34. United States Department of the Treasury: Office of Economic Policy. 

“Assessment: The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002.” Washington, DC: 

United States Department of the Treasury, June 30, 2005. 

URL: http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/reports/063005%20tria%20study.pdf 

The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 required the Department of the Treasury to 

provide compensation for losses covered by insurers that were incurred by terrorists. The 

act is intended to protect consumers, address market disruptions, and stabilize the 

insurance market. This document discusses the effectiveness of the Terrorism Risk 

Insurance Act of 2002 to accomplish those goals and evaluates the ability of the 

insurance industry to insure damages caused by terrorists. 

35. United States Geological Survey. The Plan to Coordinate NEHRP PostEarthquake Investigations. Circular 1242. Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey, 

2003. 

URL: http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/circular/c1242/c1242.pdf 

This report is a plan to coordinate post-earthquake investigations that are conducted 

through the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). A coordinated 

effort can improve emergency response, create a better understanding of earthquake 

hazards, improve land use, and facilitate a more cost effective and safer built 

environment. 

36. White House. National Security Strategy of the United States. March 2006. 

URL: http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/ 

This White House publication outlines the national security strategy and discusses public 

policies within the U.S. government. The content is general in nature and covers 

international policy, regional conflicts, weapons of mass destruction, opening societies, 

and globalization. 

37. Woo, Gordon. “Quantifying Insurance Terrorism Risk.” Risk Management 

Solutions. February 1, 2002. 

URL: http://www.rms.com/NewsPress/Quantifying_Insurance_Terrorism_Risk.pdf 

This article discusses the quantification of terrorism risk in order for the insurance market 

to provide coverage. It explores the different structures of terrorist organizations along 

with the frequency of planned attacks. 

38. Woo, Gordon. “Quantitative Terrorism Risk Assessment.” Risk Management 

Solutions. 2004. 

URL: http://www.rms.com/NewsPress/Quantitative_Terrorism_Risk_Assessment.pdf 

This paper discusses the quantification of terrorism risk. Topics include the likelihood of 

attack, loss severity distribution, the Markov Model, risk analysis, and risk transfer. This 

paper is relatively technical in nature. 

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39. Zeckhauser, Richard. “The Economics of Catastrophes.” Journal of Risk and 

Uncertainty. 12 (1996): 113-140. 

This article explores the exacerbation of disasters by human behavior along with the 

dissemination of information and the response to disasters. It discusses micromotives, 

public policies, catastrophe prevention, insurance, and liability. 

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GLOSSARY OF RELATED TERMS 

This glossary is a collection of economic terms related to evaluating the costeffectiveness of disaster mitigation investments in constructed facilities. Many of these 

terms are used in the Cost Effectiveness Tool in reference 4.1.3.4. 

100 Year Flood (Base Flood): A flood that has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any 

given year. A 500 Year Flood has 0.2 percent chance of occurring in any given year. 

Adjusted Internal Rate of Return (AIRR): The average annual yield from a project 

over the study period, taking into account reinvestment of interim receipts. The 

reinvestment rate in the AIRR calculation is equal to the discount rate. 

 

AIRR: See Adjusted Internal Rate of Return. 

Annual Value: A uniform annual amount equivalent to the project costs or benefits 

taking into account the time value of money throughout the study period. Life-cycle 

costs may be expressed in either annual value terms or present value terms. 

 

Annually Recurring: Means of classifying/allocating costs that occur every year within 

the frequency of occurrence choices of the CET software for O&M or other cost items. 

The three occurrence frequency choices are annually recurring, periodic (other than 

annual), and aperiodic. 

 

Aperiodic: Means of classifying/allocating costs that follow an irregular schedule (not 

strictly periodic) within the frequency of occurrence choices of the CET software for 

O&M or other cost items. The three occurrence frequency choices are annually 

recurring, periodic (other than annual), and aperiodic. 

Asset: Any man-made or natural feature that has value. This can include infrastructure, 

buildings, people, parks, and many other items. 

Baseline Analysis: The starting point for conducting an economic evaluation. In the 

baseline analysis, all data elements entering into the calculations are fixed. The term 

baseline analysis is used to denote a complete analysis in all respects but one; it does not 

address the effects of uncertainty. 

Base Year (Time): The date to which all future and past benefits/costs are converted 

when a present or annual value method is used. 

Building/Facility Elements: One of the three cost types that define the building/facility 

component of the detailed cost-accounting framework: building/facility elements; 

building/facility site work; non-elemental. The building/facility elements cost type is 

associated with the elemental classification UNIFORMAT II. 

 

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Capital Investment: One of the three cost types that define the budget category 

classification: capital investment, O&M (operations and maintenance), other. The cost of 

acquiring, substantially improving, expanding, changing the functional use of, or 

replacing a building or building system. Capital investment costs accrue to the 

investment cost category, while O&M and other costs accrue to the non-investment cost 

category. 

 

Cash Flow: The stream of monetary (dollar) values – benefits and costs – resulting from 

a project investment. 

 

Constant Dollar Analysis: Dollars of uniform purchasing power exclusive of general 

inflation or deflation; based on the value of a dollar in a specified base year. 

 

Constructed Facilities: Permanent structures, including infrastructure, buildings, and 

industrial facilities. 

 

Cost-Accounting Framework: Methodology for tracking how costs affect stakeholders 

in different ways. The cost-accounting framework promotes a detailed, consistent 

breakdown of life-cycle costs. 

 

Cost Effective: The condition whereby the present value benefits (savings) of an 

investment exceed its present value costs. 

Current Dollar Analysis: Analysis of the costs incurred in dollars of purchasing power 

in which actual prices are stated (not corrected for inflation or deflation). 

 

Disaster Mitigation: Measures, procedures, and strategies designed to reduce either the 

likelihood or consequences of a disaster. 

 

Discount Rate: The rate of interest reflecting the investor’s time value of money, used 

to determine discount factors for converting benefits and costs occurring at different 

times to a base year. The discount rate may be expressed as nominal or real. 

 

Escalation Rate: The rate of change in price for a particular good or service (as 

contrasted with the inflation rate, which is for all goods and services). 

Externality: The discrepancy between private and social costs or private and social 

benefits. 

 

Financial Mechanisms: One of the three mitigation strategy classifications (engineering 

alternatives; management practices; financial mechanisms). A set of devices relating to 

finances that facility owners and managers can utilize to reduce their exposure to natural 

and man-made hazards. These devices include purchase of insurance policies and 

responding to external financial incentives to engage in engineering-based or 

management-based risk mitigation. 

 

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First (Initial) Costs: Attribute of a capital investment. Costs incurred in placing a 

building or building subsystem into service, including, but not limited to, costs of 

planning, design, engineering, site acquisition and preparation, construction, purchase, 

installation, property taxes and interest during the construction period, and constructionrelated fees. 

 

GIS: See Geographic Information System

Geographic Information System (GIS): A computer system that integrates, stores, 

edits, and analyzes geographic information. 

Inflation: A rise in the general price level over time, usually expressed as a percentage 

rate. 

 

Investment Cost: First cost and later expenditures which have substantial and enduring 

value (generally more than one year) for upgrading, expanding, or changing the 

functional use of a building or building system. 

LCC: See Life-Cycle Cost. 

Life-Cycle Cost (LCC): A technique of economic evaluation that sums over a given 

study period the costs of initial investment (less resale value), replacements, operation 

(including energy use) and maintenance of an investment decision. Life-cycle costs may 

be expressed in either present value terms or annual value terms. 

 

Mitigation Strategy: One of the four core components of the cost-accounting 

framework (bearer of costs; budget category; building/facility component; mitigation 

strategy). Means of classifying/allocating costs within the CET software in regards to 

risk management. The three mitigation strategy classifications include engineering 

alternatives; management practices; financial mechanisms. 

 

Monte Carlo Simulation: A technique used to evaluate models that are too complicated 

for an analytical solution. It involves the use of numerous trials to find the equilibrium of 

a sytem. 

Nominal Discount Rate: The rate of interest reflecting the time value of money 

stemming both from inflation and the real earning power of money over time. This is the 

discount rate used in discount formulas or in selecting discount factors when future 

benefits and costs are expressed in current dollars. 

 

Operating Cost: The expenses incurred during the normal operation of a building or a 

building system or component, including labor, materials, utilities, and other related 

costs. 

 

135
Present Value: The value of a benefit or cost found by discounting future cash flows to 

the base year. Life-cycle costs may be expressed in either present value terms or annual 

value terms. 

 

Present Value Net Savings (PVNS): A method for finding the economically efficient 

choice among investment alternatives. It measures the net savings from investing in a 

given alternative instead of investing in the foregone opportunity (e.g., some other 

alternative or the base case). The PVNS for a given alternative, Aj, vis-à-vis the base 

case, A0, may be expressed as: PVNSj:0 = LCC0 - LCCj

 

Probability of Occurrence: Provides the chance that a there will be a specific outcome 

associated with a given event. The sum of all outcome probabilities for a single event 

must be equal to 1. Listed as one of the three key parameters for a given outcome: 

probability of occurrence, first year, and last year. 

 

PVNS: See Present Value Net Savings. 

 

Real Discount Rate: The rate of interest reflecting that portion of the time value of 

money related to the real earning power of money over time. This is the discount rate 

used in discount formulas or in selecting discount factors when future benefits and costs 

are expressed in constant dollars. 

 

Replacement Costs: Building component replacement and related costs, included in the 

capital budget, that are expected to be incurred during the study period. 

 

Resale Value: The monetary sum expected from the disposal of an asset at the end of its 

economic life, its useful life, or at the end of the study period. 

Retrofit: The modification of an existing building or facility to include new systems or 

components. 

 

Risk Analysis: The body of theory and practice that has evolved to help decision-makers 

assess their risk exposures and risk attitudes so that the investment that is “best for them” 

is selected. 

 

Risk Mitigation: The actions or decisions designed to reduce the financial and 

nonpecuniary risk from uncertain events. 

 

Salvage Value: The value of an asset, assigned for tax computation purposes, that is 

expected to remain at the end of the depreciation period (represented as a negative cost 

value). One of three time classification attributes of a capital investment: initial, future, 

salvage. 

 

Savings-to-Investment Ratio (SIR): Either the ratio of present value savings to present 

value investment costs, or the ratio of annual value savings to annual value investment 

costs. 

136
 

Sensitivity Analysis: A means for addressing the effects of uncertainty. A test of the 

outcome of an analysis by altering one or more parameters (key data elements or input 

variables) from (an) initially assumed value(s). A sensitivity analysis complements the 

baseline analysis by evaluating the changes in output measures when selected data inputs 

are allowed to vary about their baseline values. 

 

SIR: See Savings-to-Investment Ratio. 

 

Study Period: The length of time over which an investment is analyzed. 

 

UNIFORMAT II: An elemental format based on major components common to most 

buildings. It serves as a consistent reference for analysis, evaluation, and monitoring of 

buildings during the planning, feasibility, and design stages. It also enhances reporting at 

all stages in construction. The two cost types, building/facility elements and 

building/facility site work, under the building/facility component cost classification are 

associated with the elemental classification UNIFORMAT II. Subcategories under 

UNIFORMAT II include: substructure, shell, interiors, services, equipment & furnishings, 

special construction/demolition. 

137
138
Author Index by Reference Number 

4Clicks-Solutions. 3.4.1

Advanced materials and Processes Technology 

Information Analysis Center. 3.1.1

AIR. 2.2.2

Air Dispersion Modeling Incorporated. 2.2.1

Aldy, Joseph. 3.3.2.29

American Institute of Architects. 3.1.2

American Management Association. 3.1.3

American National Standards Institute. 4.1.2.1

American Re. Appendix B:1

American Red Cross. 3.1.4

American Society for Industrial Security. 3.1.5, 2.1.1

American Society for Testing and Materials. 4.1.2.24, 

4.1.2.23, 4.1.2.22, 4.1.2.21, 4.1.2.20, 4.1.2.19, 

4.1.2.18, 4.1.2.17, 4.1.2.16, 4.1.2.15, 4.1.2.14, 

4.1.2.13, 4.1.2.11, 4.1.2.10, 4.1.2.9, 4.1.2.8, 

4.1.2.7, 4.1.2.6, 4.1.2.5, 4.1.2.4, 4.1.2.3, 4.1.2.2, 

2.1.2

American Society of Civil Engineers. 4.1.1.25, 3.1.71, 

3.1.36, 3.1.17, 3.1.10, 3.1.9, 3.1.8, 3.1.7, 3.1.6, 

2.1.3

American Society of Mechanical Engineers. 2.1.4

American Society of Professional Estimators. 4.1.2.28

Amos, Scott. 3.3.1.2

Arrow, Kenneth J. Appendix C:1

Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering. 

3.3.1.3, 3.3.1.2

Asvaco. 2.2.3

Autodesk. 3.2.2

Avila, Ernesto A. 3.1.17

BALFOUR Technologies LLC. 3.2.3

Bartol, Nadya. 3.1.38

Beatley, Timothy. Appendix C:7

Bentley Systems. 3.2.4

Berke, Philip. Appendix C:7

Bid2Win. 3.4.2

Bledsoe, John D. 3.3.1.4

Blue Ribbon Panel on Bridge and Tunnel Security. 

3.1.11

BMS Solutions. 3.2.5

Boadway, Robin. Appendix C:2

Bohl, Charles C. Appendix C:7

BOMA International. 3.3.1.5

British Standards Institute. 4.1.2.29

Brower, David J. Appendix C:7

Building Seismic Safety Council. 3.1.12

Bureau of Justice Assistance. 2.1.18

Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3.3.2.1

Bush, George W. Appendix C:3

Carson, Richard T. 3.3.2.5

Cauffman, Stephen. 3.1.13

CBS News. Appendix B:2

Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism 

Events. 4.1.1.14

Center for State Homeland Security. Appendix B:3

Centers for Disease Control 

National Center for Health Statistics. 3.3.2.2

Chapman, Robert E. 4.1.1.16, 4.1.1.15, 3.1.47

Chemical Safety Board. 2.3.2.1

Construction Engineering Research Laboratory. 

3.3.2.8

Construction Industry Institute. 3.1.14

Construction Management Economics. 3.3.1.6

Construction Management Software. 3.4.3

Construction Specifications Institute. 4.1.2.30

Daniels, Ronald J. Appendix C:4

Decisioneering. 2.2.4

Defense Threat Reduction Agency. 3.2.6, 2.2.5

Deisler, Paul F., Jr. 2.1.5

Design Cost Data. 3.3.1.7

Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. 3.1.16, 

3.1.15, 2.3.1.1

EarthQuake Information NETwork. 2.3.1.2

Eidinger, John M. 3.1.17

Engineering News Record. 3.3.1.8

Environmental Cost Handling. 3.3.2.3

Environmental Protection Agency. 4.1.1.17, 2.3.2.3, 

2.3.2.2

Environmental Systems Research Institute. Appendix 

C:5

EQECAT. 3.2.7

ESRI. 2.2.6

Federal Alliance for Safe Homes. 3.1.18

Federal Bureau of Investigation. 2.3.2.6, 2.3.2.5

Federal Emergency Management Agency. Appendix 

B:7, Appendix B:6, 3.3.1.9, 3.1.34, 3.1.33, 3.1.32, 

3.1.31, 3.1.30, 3.1.29, 3.1.28, 3.1.27, 3.1.26, 

3.1.25, 3.1.24, 3.1.23, 3.1.22, 3.1.21, 3.1.20, 2.2.8, 

2.2.7, 2.1.14, 2.1.13, 2.1.12, 2.1.11, 2.1.10, 2.1.9, 

2.1.8, 2.1.7, 2.1.6

Federal Facilities Council. 3.1.35

Federal Highway Administration. 3.3.1.10

Federal Reserve Bank. 4.2.13

Fineberg, Harvey V. Appendix C: 29

Fisk, William J. 3.3.2.4

Frangopol, M. Dan. 3.1.36

Frank R. Walker Company. 3.3.1.11

Fuller, Sieglinde K. 4.1.1.18

Fuller, Sieglinde K.. 4.2.14

Garcia, Mary Lynn. 3.1.37

Godschalk, David R. Appendix C:7

Goebel, R. Matthew. Appendix C:7

Golan, Elise. 3.3.2.7

Government Accountability Office. Appendix C:9, 

Appendix C:8

Government Printing Office. Appendix B:8

Grance, Tim. 3.1.38

Grossi, Patricia. 3.1.39

Hahn, Robert W. 2.1.16

Hallstrom, Daniel G. Appendix C:28

Hamm, Mark S. Appendix C:10

HardDollar. 3.4.4

Hash, Joan. 3.1.38

Heal, Geoffrey. Appendix C:11

Henderson, LTC Darrall. 4.2.16

Hicks and Associates Incorporated. 3.1.40

High Plains Regional Climate Center and University 

of Nebraska. 2.3.1.5

139
Horowitz, John K. 3.3.2.5

Institute for Business and Home Safety. 3.1.41

Integrated Computer Engineering. 2.2.9

Intergraph. 3.2.8

International Association of Earthquake Engineering. 

3.1.42, 2.3.1.1

International Code Council. 3.1.43

International Organization of Standardization. 4.1.2.31

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. 3.1.44

International Trade Administration. 3.3.1.13

International Tsunami Information Centre. 2.3.1.6

Jenicek, Elisabeth M. 3.3.2.8

Jetter, James. Appendix C:12

Joint Chiefs of Staff. 3.1.45

Jones, J. W. 4.2.16

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency 

Management. 3.1.46

Kahneman, Daniel. Appendix C:16

Kaiser, Edward J. Appendix C:7

Kettl, Donald F. Appendix C:4

Kuchler, Fred. 3.3.2.7

Kunreuther, Howard. Appendix C:16, Appendix C:15, 

Appendix C:14, Appendix C:13, Appendix C:11, 

Appendix C:4, 2.1.17

Layne-Farrar, Anne. 2.1.16

Leite-Monteiro. Appendix C:2

Leng, Chi J. 4.1.1.16, 3.1.47

Leson, Joel. 2.1.18

Lew, H. S. 3.1.13

Lister, Debra Brinegar. 3.3.2.8

Lufkin, Peter S. 3.3.1.14

Mackin, T. J. 4.2.16

Marchand, Maurice. Appendix C:2

Marlatt, Greta E. 2.3.2.8

Marshall, Harold E. Appendix C:17, 4.3.7, 4.1.1.24, 

4.1.1.22, 4.1.1.21, 4.1.1.20, 3.1.47

MC2. 3.4.5

McCarthy, John A. Appendix C:18

McEntire, David A. 3.1.48

Melchers, Robert E. 4.3.9

Meyer, Robert. 2.1.17

Michel-Kerjan, Erwann. Appendix C:14

Michigan Technological University. 2.3.1.7

Mid-America Earthquake Center. 2.3.1.8

Mileti, Dennis. 3.1.49

Military Operations Research Society. 4.2.16

Moore, Michael J. 3.3.2.9

Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering 

Research. 3.1.50

Munich Re. 3.3.2.10

Nadel, Barbara A. 3.1.51

NASA. Appendix B:14, 2.3.1.9

National Academies 

Federal Facilities Council. 3.1.52

National Academy Press. Appendix C:29

National Association of Home Builders Research 

Center. 3.1.53

National Bureau of Economic Research. Appendix 

C:14

National Capital Planning Commission. Appendix 

C:20, Appendix C:19, 3.1.54

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism. 

Appendix C:21

National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. 

3.1.55

National Fire Protection Association. 4.1.2.33, 3.1.57, 

3.1.56, 2.3.2.9, 2.1.19

National Incident Management System. 3.1.58

National Information Service for Earthquake 

Engineering. 3.1.59

National Institute for Occupational Safety. 3.1.60

National Institute of Building Sciences. 3.1.62, 3.1.61

National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of 

Terrorism. 3.3.2.11, 3.1.40, 2.3.2.11

National Ocean Economics Program. 3.3.2.12

National Research Council. 3.3.2.16, 3.1.67, 3.1.66, 

3.1.65

National Science and Technology Council. 3.1.68

National Science Foundation. Appendix C: 24

National Sea Grant Network. 2.3.1.12

National Technology Information Service. 3.3.2.17

National Weather Service. 2.3.1.13

Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services. 

2.3.1.14

Natural Environment Research Council. 2.3.1.16

Novemsky, Nathan. Appendix C:16

O’Day, Alan. 3.3.2.18

O’Neal Kristofor. 3.1.38

Organization for Economic Co-operation and 

Dvelopment. Appendix C:25

Owen, David D. 3.3.1.16

Pacific Disaster Center. 2.3.1.17

Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. 

3.1.69

Palisade. 2.2.14

Pate-Cornell, M. Elisabeth. Appendix C:26

Pauly, Mark. Appendix C:15

Persily, Andy. 3.1.70

Pestieau, Pierre. Appendix C:2

Petersen, Stephen R. 4.1.1.18

Population Reference Bureau. 3.3.2.19

Porter, Beverly. Appendix C:14

Preissner, Paul Fredrick. 3.3.2.8

Priest, George L. Appendix C:27

Proffitt, David. Appendix C:12

Public Entity Risk Institute. 2.1.20

Quest Solutions. 3.4.6

Ramachandran, Ganapathy. 4.1.1.23

RAND Corporation. 2.1.24, 2.1.21

Reed Construction Data. 3.3.1.16

Risk Management Solutions. Appendix C:38, 

Appendix C:37, 2.1.26, 2.1.22

Ritz, George J. 3.3.1.17

Robinson, Robie Jack. 3.1.48

Rogers, Mark R. 4.2.21

Rosenfeld, Arthur H. 3.3.2.4

RS Means. 3.4.7, 3.3.1.22, 3.3.1.21, 3.3.1.20, 3.3.1.19, 

3.3.1.18, 3.3.1.4

Ruegg, Rosalie T. 4.1.1.24

Sage Timberline Office. 3.4.8

Sandia National Laboratories. 2.2.16

Schiff, Ansel J. 3.1.71

Securac. 2.2.17

140
Silsbee, Robert M. 3.3.1.14

Smith, V. Kerry. Appendix C:28

Society of fire Protection Engineers. 3.1.57

Stern, Paul C. Appendix C: 29

Stevens, Marc. 3.1.38

Stewart, Mark G. 4.3.9

Swiss Re. 3.3.2.22, 2.3.1.18

Taylor, Craig. 4.1.1.25

Tec-Com Incorporated. 2.2.18

The Infrastructure Security Partnership. 3.1.72

TreeAge. 3.4.9

Tropical Storm Risk Consortium. 2.3.1.19

United States Army Corps of Engineers. 3.1.73

United States Army Training and Doctrine Command. 

2.3.2.13

Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence 

Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence. 

2.3.2.14

United States Department of Agriculture. 3.3.2.7

United States Department of Commerce 

Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4.2.23

National Institute of Standards and Technology. 

Appendix C:23, Appendix C:22, 4.3.7, 4.2.14, 

4.1.1.22, 4.1.1.21, 4.1.1.20, 4.1.1.18, 4.1.1.16, 

3.1.38, 3.1.13, 2.1.17

Building and Fire Research Laboratory. 4.1.3.5, 

4.1.3.4, 4.1.3.3, 4.1.3.2, 3.1.63, 2.2.10

Electronics and Electrical Engineering 

Office of Law Enforcement Standards. 

3.1.64

Information Technology Laboratory. 2.2.11

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 

3.3.2.13, 2.3.1.10

Coastal and Ocean Resource Economics. 

3.3.2.14

Damage Assessment, Remediation, and 

Restoration Program. 3.3.2.15

Satellite and Information Service 

National Environmental Satellite, Data, and 

Information Service. 2.3.1.15

United States Census Bureau. 3.3.1.25, 2.3.2.16, 

2.3.2.15

United States Department of Defense. 3.1.74

United States Department of Energy. 3.3.1.26

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. 3.3.1.27

Energy Information Administration. 3.3.1.32, 

3.3.1.31, 3.3.1.30, 3.3.1.29, 3.3.1.28

United States Department of Health and Human 

Services. Appendix B:24

United States Department of Homeland Security. 

Appendix C:33, Appendix C:32, Appendix C:31, 

Appendix C:30, Appendix C:28, Appendix B:26, 

3.1.79, 3.1.78, 3.1.77, 3.1.76, 3.1.75

United States Department of Justice. 3.3.2.25

Bureau of Justice Statistics. 2.3.2.17

United States Department of Labor 

Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4.2.24

United States Department of the Interior 

United States Geological Survey. Appendix C:35, 

2.3.1.24, 2.3.1.20

Earthquakes Hazard Program. 2.3.1.21

Marine and Coastal Geology Program. 2.3.1.22

National Geospatial Program Office. 2.3.1.23

USGS Landslide Hazards Program. 2.3.1.25

Volcano Hazards Program. 2.3.1.26

United States Department of the Treasury 

Office of Economic Policy. Appendix C:34

United States Department of Transportation. 3.3.1.34

Bureau of Transportation Statistics. 2.3.2.18

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 

National Center for Statistics and Analysis. 

3.3.2.27

United States Fire Administration. 2.3.2.19

United States General Services Administration. 3.1.80

United States Government Accountability Office. 

3.1.81

University of Colorado-Boulder 

Center for Science and Technology. 2.3.1.27

University of Colorado-Boulder Natural Hazards 

Center. Appendix B:29

US COST. 3.4.10

Van den Bulte, Christophe. 2.1.17

VanMarcke, Erik. 4.1.1.25

Vertigraph Incorporation. 3.4.11

Viscusi, W. Kip. 3.3.2.29, 3.3.2.28, 3.3.2.9

Weber, Richard T. 3.1.48

White House. Appendix C:36, 3.3.2.30

Whitestone Research. 3.3.1.14

Willis, Henry H. 2.1.24

WinEstimator Incorporated. 3.4.12

Woo, Gordon. Appendix C:38, Appendix C:37, 

2.1.26, 2.1.25

World Health Organization. 2.3.1.28

Young, Robert. 3.1.38

Zeckhauser, Richard. Appendix C:39

141
142
Subject Index by Reference Number 

Adjusted Internal Rate of Return. 4.1.2.17, 4.1.1.22, 

4.1.1.18, 4.1.1.16

Software. 4.1.3.4, 4.1.3.3

Air Quality. 2.3.2.2

Data and Statistics. 2.3.1.13

Modeling Software. 2.2.10, 2.2.1

Productivity. 3.3.2.4

Reference List. 3.3.2.8

Analytical Hierarchy Process. 4.1.2.13

Annual Loss Expectancy. 2.2.17

Avalanche 

Reference List. Appendix B:14

Benefit-to-Cost Ratio.4.1.2.15, 4.1.1.24

Breakeven Analysis. 4.1.2.10

Bridge 

Design. 3.1.36

Security. 3.1.11

Building 

Benchmarking Data. 3.3.1.5

Blast-Effects Mitigation. 3.1.66

CBR Protection. 3.1.60

Design and Management Software. 3.2.2

Earthquake Vulnerability. 2.1.3, 2.1.2

Engineering Guidelines. 4.1.2.33, 3.3.1.16, 3.1.74, 

3.1.62, 3.1.61, 3.1.43, 3.1.20, 3.1.12, 3.1.9, 

3.1.8, 2.3.2.9

Evaluation Methods. 4.1.2.9, 4.1.1.24

Flood Design. 3.1.7

Hazard Mitigation. 3.1.47, 3.1.33, 2.1.19

Security. 3.1.2

Standards. 4.1.2.2

Terrorist Insurance. 3.1.30

Business 

Hazard Preparedness. 3.1.79, 3.1.41

Capital Returns. 4.2.21

Catastrophe. See Hazard, and Specific Hazards

Census Data. 2.3.2.15

Chemical Safety. 2.3.2.1

City Planning. Appendix C:20

Washington DC Security. 3.1.54

City Planning. Appendix C:19

Climate 

Data and Statistics. 2.3.1.15

Preparedness. 3.1.18, 2.1.6

Reference List. Appendix B:29, Appendix B:2

Coastal 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.12, 2.3.1.15

Hazard Mapping. 2.3.1.22

Hazards. 2.3.1.12

Coefficient of Variation. 4.1.2.10

Cold. See Climate 

Commercial Building 

Energy Consuption. 3.3.1.31

Engineering Guidelines. 3.1.31

Shelter in Place. Appendix C:12

Construction 

Bridge Elements. 4.1.2.4

Cost Analysis. 4.1.2.22

Cost Classification. 4.1.2.30, 4.1.2.21, 4.1.2.7, 

4.1.2.6, 4.1.2.5, 4.1.2.3

Cost Data. 3.3.1.20, 3.3.1.19, 3.3.1.18, 3.3.1.16, 

3.3.1.11, 3.3.1.8, 3.3.1.7

Cost Engineering. 3.3.1.3, 3.3.1.2

Cost Estimating Methods. 4.1.2.28, 3.3.1.22, 

3.3.1.21, 3.3.1.4

Cost Estimation Software. 3.4

Cost Uncertainty. 4.3.7, 4.1.2.16, 4.1.2.10

Data and Statistics. 3.3.1.25, 2.3.2.16

Economic Impact. 4.1.2.11

Engineering Guidelines. 3.1.53

Industry Outlook. 3.3.1.13

Industry Statistics. 4.2.23

Project Management. 3.3.1.17

Safety Code. 4.1.2.33

Terms. 4.1.2.24

Traffic Redirection. 3.3.1.10

Value Analysis. 4.1.2.23

Consumer Price Index. 4.2.13

Cost Effectiveness. 3.3.2.30

Cost Estimation. 3.3

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. 3.3.2.7

Cost-of-Illness. 3.3.2.7

Counterterrorism. See Terrorism 

Crime 

Cyber. Appendix B:2, 2.3.2.14

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.25, 2.3.2.17, 2.3.2.5

Cyber Crimes. See Crime 

Cyclone 

Reference List. Appendix B:14

Dam Failure. 2.1.6

Decision Analysis. 4.1.2.13, 4.1.2.10

Disaster. See Specific Types

Discount Rate. 4.2.14, 4.1.1.20, 4.1.1.18, 4.1.1.17

Discounted Payback. See Payback 

Disease 

Reference List. Appendix B:14

Drought 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13

Reference List. Appendix B:14, Appendix B:2

Dust Storm 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13

Earthquake 

Data and Statistics. 2.3.1.20, 2.3.1.1

Engineering Guidelines. 3.1.69, 3.1.59, 3.1.50, 

3.1.29, 3.1.15, 2.3.1.8

Mapping Software. 2.2.7

Mitigation. 3.1.55, 3.1.21

Power System Design. 3.1.71

Preparedness. 3.1.28, 3.1.26, 3.1.25, 3.1.18, 2.1.6

Reference List. Appendix B:29, Appendix B:14, 

Appendix B:6, Appendix B:2, 3.1.55, 2.3.1.2

Vulnerability Assessment. 2.1.3

143
Water Facility Transmission. 3.1.17

Economic 

Building Software. 4.1.3.4, 4.1.3.3

Data and Statistics. Appendix C:24, 4.2.24, 4.2, 

2.3.2.16, 2.3.2.15

Environmental Sustainability Software. 4.1.3.2

Evaluation Methods. 4.1.1

Indicators. 4.2.21, 4.2.13

Emergency 

Response. 3.1.58, 3.1.4, 2.1.6

Employment Rates. 4.2.21, 4.2.13

Energy. 3.3.1.26

Data and Statistics. 4.2.14, 3.3.1.32, 3.3.1.31, 

3.3.1.30, 3.3.1.28

Efficiency. 3.3.1.27

Escalation Rate Software. 4.1.3.5

Outlook. 3.3.1.29

Environment 

Damage Assessment and Restoration. 3.3.2.15

Economic Building Software. 4.1.3.2

Economics. 4.1.1.17

Reference List. 3.3.2.8

Restoration Cost Data. 3.3.2.3

Event-Related Losses. See Hazard Losses 

Extreme Temperatures. See Climate 

Federal Buildings 

Engineering Guidelines. 3.3.2.16, 3.1.65, 3.1.52, 

3.1.35, 3.1.13

Terrorism Mitigation. 3.1.81

Fire 

Data and Statistics. 2.3.2.19, 2.3.2.9

Disaster Management. 3.1.56

Engineering Guidelines. 3.1.57, 2.3.2.9

Mitigation. 4.1.1.23

Preparedness. 3.1.56, 2.1.6

Flood 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13, 2.1.6, 2.3.1.27, 

2.3.1.20, 2.1.6

Engineering Guidelines. 3.1.7

Mapping Software. 2.2.7

Preparedness. 3.1.18, 2.1.6

Reference List. Appendix B:29, Appendix B:14, 

Appendix B:2

Fog 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13

Foreign Terrorist Tracking Task Force. Appendix C:3

Geospatial Data and Information. 2.3.1.23

GIS Mapping. 2.2.6

Government 

Preparedness. 3.1.78

Publications. Appendix B:8

Gross Domestic Product. 4.2.23

Explained. 4.2.21

Hail 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13

Preparedness. 3.1.18

Hawthorne Effect. 3.3.2.8

Hazard 

Data and Statistics. Appendix B:1, 3.3.2.22, 

3.3.2.10, 2.3.1.28, 2.3.1.14

Engineering Guidelines. Appendix C:20, Appendix 

C:19, 3.1.23, 3.1.22

GIS Data. 3.2.6

Human Behavior. Appendix C:39

Losses. 3.3.2

Mapping Software. 2.2.6

Maps. 2.1.6

Mitigation. Appendix B:1, 4.2.16, 3.1.68, 2.1.12, 

2.1.11, 2.1.9, 2.1.7

Modeling. 3.1.39

Preparedness. Appendix B:3, 3.1.79, 3.1.18, 3.1.3, 

2.1.6, 2.1.13, 2.1.6

Probability Perception. Appendix C:16

Reference List. Appendix B:26, Appendix B:24, 

Appendix B:3, 3.1.75, 2.3.1.9

Response. Appendix C:32, 3.1.64

Risk Assessment. 2.2.16

Vulnerability Assessment. 3.2.6, 2.1.10

Hazardous Materials 

Preparedness. 2.2.6

HAZUS. 2.1.6, 2.2.7, 2.1.6

Guide. 2.1.8

Health 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.2, 2.3.2.16

Value of. 4.1.1.17

Health-Health Analysis. 3.3.2.7

Heat. See Climate 

High Wind. See Wind 

Historic Property 

Hazard Mitigation. 2.1.13

Home 

Hazard Preparedness. 3.1.79

Safety. 3.1.41

Homeland Security. 3.1.20

Government Capabilities. 3.1.77

Journal. 3.1.46

Policies. Appendix C:28

Reference List. Appendix B:3

Homeland Security Council. Appendix C:3

Homeland Security Digital Library. Appendix B:26

Homeland Security Presidential Directives. Appendix 

C:3

Implementation. 3.1.76

Homeland Security Strategic Plan. Appendix C:33

Hospital 

Earthquake Preparedness. 3.1.25

Hurricane 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13, 2.3.1.27

Katrina. Appendix C:4

Preparedness. 3.1.18, 2.1.6

Reference List. Appendix B:29, Appendix B:14, 

Appendix B:2, 2.3.1.19

Income Data. 2.3.2.15

Industry Standards. 4.1.2

Industry Statistics. 3.3.1.13

Infrastructure 

Design and Management Software. 3.2.8, 3.2.5, 

3.2.4, 3.2.3, 3.2.2

Preparedness. Appendix C:31, Appendix C:18, 

3.1.72

Insurance. Appendix C:15, Appendix B:1, 3.3.2.22

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.10, 2.3.2.15

Disaster Loss Mitigation. Appendix C:11

Public and Private. Appendix C:27

144
Research. Appendix C:1

Terrorism. Appendix C:37

Interest Rates. 4.2.13

Internal Rate of Return. 4.1.2.17, 4.1.1.24, 4.1.1.22, 

4.1.1.18

Labor 

Data and Statistics. 4.2.24, 3.3.2.1, 3.3.1.18

Landslide 

Data and Statistics. 2.3.1.20

Mitigation. 2.3.1.25

Preparedness. 2.1.6

Reference List. Appendix B:29, Appendix B:14, 

Appendix B:2

Life-Cycle Cost. 4.1.1.24, 4.1.1.22, 4.1.1.20, 4.1.1.18, 

4.1.1.16

Case Study. 4.1.1.15

Software. 4.1.3.4, 4.1.3.3

Standard Practice. 4.1.2.18

Lightning 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13, 2.3.1.27

Preparedness. 3.1.18

Reference List. Appendix B:2

Location Cost Adjustment. 3.3.1.18

Man-Made Hazard. 2.3.2

Mitigation. 2.1.14, 2.1.4

Toxic Release Data. 2.3.2.3

MasterFormat. 4.1.2.30

Mean-Variance. 4.1.2.10

Mitigation. See Individual Hazards 

Costs. 3.3.1

Monte Carlo Simulation. 2.2.14, 2.2.4

Multifamily Housing 

Earthquake Preparedness. 3.1.26

National Flood Insurance Program. 2.1.6

National Icons 

Terrorism Protection. 3.1.81

National Incident Management System. 3.1.58

National Security Strategy. Appendix C:36

Natural Hazard. 2.3.1

Data and Statistics. 2.3.1.27, 2.3.1.20, 2.3.1.14, 

2.3.1.13, 2.3.1.10

Mapping Software. 2.2.7

Maps. 2.3.1.17

Mitigation. Appendix C:7, 3.3.1.9, 3.1.49, 2.1.4

Reference List. Appendix B:14

Risk Estimation Software. 2.2.7

Natural Resource Restoration. 3.3.2.15

Net Benefits. 4.1.2.19, 4.1.1.24

Net Savings. 4.1.2.19, 4.1.1.24, 4.1.1.22, 4.1.1.18

Software. 4.1.3.3

Nuclear 

Preparedness. 2.1.6

Ocupational Health. 4.1.2.1

Office Building 

Engineering Guidelines. 3.1.27

Oil-Spill 

Reference List. Appendix B:2

Payback. 4.1.2.20, 4.1.1.24, 4.1.1.23, 4.1.1.22, 

4.1.1.18

Periodicals 

Construction Management Economics. 3.3.1.6

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency 

Management. 3.1.46

RAND Review. 2.1.21

Population Data. 2.3.2.15

Power Outage 

Preparedness. 3.1.18

Power System 

Earthquake Design. 3.1.71

Preparedness. See Individual Hazards

Present Value of Net Savings. 4.1.1.16

Software. 4.1.3.4

Price Escalation. 4.1.1.18

Producer Price Index. 4.2.13

Explained. 4.2.21

Productivity 

Indoor Environments. 3.3.2.8, 3.3.2.4

Public Building 

Standards. 4.1.2.34, 3.1.80

Quantity Adjusted Value of Life. 3.3.2.9

RAMCAP. 2.1.4

RAMPART. 2.2.16

Reference List. See Individual Topics

Reinsurance. See Insurance

Retail Building 

Earthquake Preparedness. 3.1.28

Return on Investment. 2.2.17

Risk. Appendix C:29, 3.3.2.29, 2.1.6

Analysis Software. 2.2.2

Assessment. 3.1.20, 2.2.9, 2.2.8, 2.1.17, 2.1.5, 2

Attitudes. 4.1.1.21

Data and Statistics. 2.1.20

Engineering Guidelines. 4.3.9

Management. Appendix C:26, Appendix B:1, 3, 

2.1.20

Measurements. 2.1.22

Mitigation. 4.1.2.9, 3.1.44, 2.1.7

Software. 3.2, 2.2.18, 2.2

Risk-Adjusted Discounting. 4.1.2.10

Risk-Risk Analysis. 3.3.2.7

Savings to Investment Ratio. 4.1.2.15, 4.1.1.24, 

4.1.1.22, 4.1.1.18, 4.1.1.16

Software. 4.1.3.4, 4.1.3.3

School 

Earthquake Rehabilitation. 3.1.29

Engineering Guidelines. 3.1.32, 3.1.23

Security 

Assessment. 2.1.1

Educational Material. 3.1.5

Engineering Guidelines. 3.1.51, 3.1.37, 3.1.10

Implementation. 3.1.63, 3.1.14

Information Technology. 3.1.38

Investments. Appendix C:11

Seismic. See Earthquake 

Sensitivity Analysis. 4.1.2.10

Severe Weather 

Reference List. Appendix B:29, Appendix B:2

Simple Payback. See Payback 

Snow 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13

Reference List. Appendix B:29

Social Costs. 4.1.1.17

Social Insurance. Appendix C:2

145
Software. 4.1.3, 3.4, 3.2

Software Security. 2.1.16

State Disaster Agencies. Appendix B:2

Terrorism 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.25, 3.3.2.11, 2.3.2.11, 

2.3.2.6, 2.1.21

Economic Effects. Appendix C:25

Engineering Guidelines. 3.1.74, 3.1.33, 3.1.32, 

3.1.31, 3.1.20

Infrastructure Security. 3.1.72

Insurance. Appendix C:37, Appendix C:34, 3.1.30, 

2.1.26

Mitigation. Appendix C:17, Appendix B:7, 3.1.81, 

3.1.66, 3.1.40, 2.1.4

Preparedness. 3.1.48, 3.1.45, 3.1.18, 2.1.6

Reference List. Appendix B:3, Appendix B:2, 

2.3.2.8

Research. Appendix C: 21, Appendix C: 10

Resource Allocation. 4.2.16

Risk Assessment. 4.1.1.14, 3.1.34, 2.1.25, 2.1.24, 

2.1.18, 2.1.5

Risk Quantification. Appendix C:38

Tactics. 2.3.2.13

Tracking Task Force. Appendix C:3

Trends. 2.1.26

Terrorism Risk Insurance Act. Appendix C:34, 

Appendix C:14

Thunderstorm 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13

Preparedness. 3.1.18, 2.1.6

Reference List. Appendix B:14

Tornado 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13, 2.3.1.27, 2.3.1.18

Preparedness. 3.1.18, 2.1.6

Reference List. Appendix B:14

Total Cost of Ownership. 2.2.17

Toxics Release Inventory. 2.3.2.3

Transportation. 3.3.1.34

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.27, 2.3.2.18

Tropical Storm. See Hurricane 

Tsunami 

Data and Statistics. 2.3.1.20, 2.3.1.6

Preparedness. 3.1.18, 2.1.6, 2.3.1.6, 2.1.6

Reference List. Appendix B:29, Appendix B:14

Research. 2.3.1.24, 2.3.1.16

Tunnel 

Security. 3.1.11

Typhoon 

Reference List. Appendix B:14, Appendix B:2

Unemployment Rate. 3.3.2.1

Uniformat II. 4.1.2.21, 4.1.2.6

United States Fire Administration. 2.1.6

United States Government Policy. Appendix C 

Universal Task List. 3.1.78

Utility Theory. 4.1.1.23

Value of Life. 4.1.1.23, 3.3.2.29, 3.3.2.28, 3.3.2.9, 

3.3.2.7

Discount Rate. 3.3.2.5

Value of Recreation Sites. 3.3.2.14

Value of Risk. 3.3.2.28

Volcano 

Data and Statistics. 2.3.1.20

Mitigation. 2.3.1.26

Reference List. Appendix B:29, Appendix B:14, 

2.3.1.7

Risk. 2.3.1.26

Vulnerability 

Analysis. 4.1.1.25

Vulnerability Assessment Software. 2.2.5, 2.2.3

Water Facility 

Earthquake Evaluation. 3.1.17

Weather 

Data and Statistics. 2.3.1.27, 2.3.1.13

Reference List. 2.3.1.5

Wildfire 

Data and Statistics. 3.3.2.13, 2.3.1.20

Preparedness. 3.1.18

Reference List. Appendix B:29, Appendix B:14

Willingness-to-Pay. 3.3.2.7

Wind 

Mapping Software. 2.2.7

Winter Storm 

Reference List. Appendix B:2

Years to Payback 

Software. 4.1.3.3

146