NIST Special Publication 1130

Reducing the Risk of Fire in Buildings and 

Communities: A Strategic Roadmap to 

Guide and Prioritize Research

Anthony Hamins

Jason Averill

Nelson Bryner

Richard Gann

David Butry

Rick Davis

Francine Amon

Jeffrey Gilman

Alexander Maranghides

William Mell

Daniel Madrzykowski

Samuel Manzello

Jiann Yang

Matthew Bundy
NIST Special Publication 1130

Reducing the Risk of Fire in Buildings and

Communities: A Strategic Roadmap to Guide 

and Prioritize Research

Anthony Hamins

Jason Averill

Nelson Bryner

Richard Gann

David Butry

Rick Davis*

Francine Amon1

Jeffrey Gilman2

Alexander Maranghides

William Mell3

Daniel Madrzykowski

Samuel Manzello

Jiann Yang

Matthew Bundy

Fire Research Division

Engineering Laboratory

April 2012

U.S. Department of Commerce 

John E. Bryson, Secretary

National Institute of Standards and Technology 

Patrick D. Gallagher, Under Secretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology, and Director 

 

Current address:

1. SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden, Box 857, SE-501 15, Borås, Sweden

2. Materials Measurement Laboratory, NIST, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-6541

3. U.S. Forest Service, 400 N 34th Street, Seattle, WA 98103
Certain commercial entities, equipment, or materials may be identified in this

document in order to describe an experimental procedure or concept adequately.

Such identification is not intended to imply recommendation or endorsement by the

National Institute of Standards and Technology, nor is it intended to imply that the

entities, materials, or equipment are necessarily the best available for the purpose. 

National Institute of Standards and Technology Special Publication 1130

Natl. Inst. Stand. Technol. Spec. Publ. 1130, 171 pages (April 2012)

CODEN: NSPUE2
This page intentionally left blank.
v

Abstract

The burden of fire on the U.S. economy is significant, comprising approximately $310 billion annually, or 

about 2 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Over the last 30 years, the number of reported 

fires, and the number of civilian fire deaths and injuries have decreased due to the efforts of many 

organizations. On the other hand, the number of civilian deaths and injuries normalized by the number 

of reported fires has essentially remained flat, while the number of firefighter injuries and fatalities has 

significantly increased on a per fire basis. Furthermore, the cost of fire protection has increased, and 

new and potentially costly threats to fire safety are emerging. Consequently, now is an appropriate time 

to address this continuing problem and consider how best to impel consistent and significant reductions 

in overall fire losses and costs. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has developed 

this Roadmap as a response to the national fire problem.

This roadmap was developed to provide a shared vision for communication, bring the limited available 

resources to bear on the U.S. fire burden in a focused and creative manner for enhanced effectiveness,

establish a basis for NIST strategic planning, and identify gaps in knowledge and measurement science 

that hinder the development of critical enabling technologies. 

NIST’s long-term vision is that unwanted fire be removed as a limitation to life safety, technical 

innovation, and economic prosperity in the United States. To realize this vision, the long-term goal of

the Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Strategy is to develop and demonstrate the 

measurement science that enables a one-third reduction in the nation's preventable fire burden, 

reducing the impact of fire on communities, structures, their occupants, the fire service, and the 

economy within a generation. The estimated value of the preventable fire burden is about one-third of 

the total U.S. fire burden.

The preventable fire burden is considered in terms of life safety and societal costs. At the highest level, 

the problem is analyzed in three parts: fire hazards in buildings, challenges faced by the fire service, and 

fire spread in wildland-urban interface communities. A series of approaches are proposed to attack 

problems in each of these three application areas. This roadmap addresses the following questions:

• What are the most pressing fire problems?

• What are the best ways to attack these problems and reduce the overall U.S. fire burden?

In addition, the roadmap addresses more operationally precise questions: 

• What measurement science is needed to realize the vision of a fire-safe future?

• What technologies are needed to most quickly reduce the national fire burden?

• What are the metrics to ensure that progress is being achieved?

From the answers to these questions, based on input from NIST staff and stakeholders nationwide, a set 

of strategic research priorities are developed. 
vi

Table of Contents

Abstract.............................................................................................................................................v

List of Figures....................................................................................................................................ix

List of Tables......................................................................................................................................x

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations..................................................................................................xii

Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................xv

Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................................ xviii

1 What This Roadmap is About .....................................................................................................1

1.1 What is a Roadmap?............................................................................................................1

1.2 Why is NIST Developing a Roadmap? ...................................................................................1

1.3 What is Measurement Science? ...........................................................................................2

1.4 Defining Roadmap Components ..........................................................................................2

2 The U.S. Fire Problem.................................................................................................................4

2.1 The Road Traveled: The Historical Fire Problem and Fire Research at NBS/NIST ....................4

2.2 The U.S. Fire Problem Today................................................................................................9

2.3 Key Drivers of Fire Safety Progress.....................................................................................14

2.4 Gaps in Measurement Science ...........................................................................................17

3 The Road Ahead.......................................................................................................................19

3.1 A Vision Statement............................................................................................................19

3.2 The Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Strategy ........................................20

3.3 Strategic Focus Area: Reduced Fire Risk in Buildings..........................................................22

3.4 Strategic Focus Area: Advanced Fire Service Technologies..................................................42

3.5 Strategic Focus Area: Reduced Fire Risk in Wildland-urban Interface Communities .............56

3.6 Other Fire Types................................................................................................................68
vii

3.7 Cross-Cutting Strategic Focus Areas ...................................................................................69

4 Prioritized Outputs and Outcomes for the Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Goal

.................................................................................................................................................................... 76

4.1 Philosophy........................................................................................................................76

4.2 Strategic Priorities Given Current Resources ......................................................................77

4.3 Next Priority Areas Given Additional Resources .................................................................86

5 Impact Plan .............................................................................................................................94

5.1 Changes to Practice............................................................................................................94

5.2 Standards and Codes strategy ............................................................................................94

5.3 Strategy for Reduced Fire Risk in Buildings .........................................................................98

5.4 Strategy for Advanced Fire Service Technologies ................................................................99

5.5 Strategy for Reduced Risk of Fire Spread at the Wildland-Urban Interface.........................102

5.6 Metrics to Measure Progress............................................................................................104

6 Summary ...............................................................................................................................106

6.1 NIST’s Role ......................................................................................................................106

6.2 Collaboration...................................................................................................................107

6.3 Innovative and Exploratory Research ...............................................................................108

Appendix A The U.S. Fire Burden...................................................................................................110

A.1 Explanation of the Value of the U.S. Fire Burden ..............................................................110

A.2 Uncertainty and Measurement Precision .........................................................................113

A.3 WUI Fires: An Emerging Problem .....................................................................................116

Appendix B Reducing the U.S. Fire Burden ...................................................................................118

B.1 Reducing the Preventable Burden of Structure Fires........................................................121

B.2 Reducing the Preventable Burden of Wildland-Urban Interface Fires................................128

B.3 Reducing the Preventable Burden of the Fire Service .......................................................137
viii

B.4 Reducing the Preventable Burden of Vehicle, Outdoor and Other Fires............................144

B.5 Summary of the Strategy to Reduce the Preventable Fire Burden ......................................144

References.....................................................................................................................................145
ix

List of Figures

Figure 2-1: Civilian fire deaths .....................................................................................................................4

Figure 2-2: Loss scenario methodology, developed as part of the 1976 Center for Fire Research 

roadmap........................................................................................................................................................6

Figure 2-3: Average number of structures destroyed per year in WUI fires by decade from 1960 to 2010.

....................................................................................................................................................................13

Figure 3-1: Representation of approaches to reduce the fire risk in buildings. ........................................23

Figure 3-2: Approaches to enable advanced firefighting technologies. ....................................................46

Figure 3-3: Approaches to reduce the risk of ignition and fire spread in WUI communities. ...................58

Figure 5-1: Qualitative timeline of the three stages of codes and standards implementation.................96

Figure A-1: Forecasted WUI Fire Burden (2011-2025)................................................................................... 116

Figure B-1: Estimated cost reductions in components of the WUI fire burden.......................................... 136

Figure B-2: Contributions of technical approaches to reduce the WUI fire burden. ................................ 136

Figure B-3: Estimated cost reductions in components of the Fire Service burden. .................................. 143

Figure B-4: Contributions of technical approaches to reduce the WUI fire burden. ................................ 143
x

List of Tables

Table 2-1: Comparison of the components of various definitions used in the economic assessment of the 

U.S. fire problem.........................................................................................................................................10

Table 2-2: U.S. Fire Losses from 1980 to 2008............................................................................................12

Table 2-3: Normalized U.S. Fire Losses from 1980 to 2008. .......................................................................12

Table 2-4: U.S. Fire Losses by Type in 2008. ...............................................................................................12

Table 2-5: Key Drivers Affecting Fire Safety Progress................................................................................16

Table 3-1: Leading Annual Fire Losses from Home Structure Fires from 2003 - 2006, grouped by Ignition 

Source. ........................................................................................................................................................25

Table 3-2: Leading Annual Losses from Home Structure Fires from 2003 - 2006, grouped by First Item 

Ignited. ........................................................................................................................................................26

Table 3-3: Ignition Prevention Technologies. ............................................................................................27

Table 3-4: Improved Materials and Products. ............................................................................................29

Table 3-5: Detection Technologies. ............................................................................................................31

Table 3-6: Engineered Fire Protection Technologies. ................................................................................33

Table 3-7: Technologies for Improved Building Egress...............................................................................35

Table 3-8: Technologies for Improved Structural Fire Resistance .............................................................36

Table 3-9: Technologies to Enable Performance Based Design.................................................................38

Table 3-10: Types of Post-fire Investigations.............................................................................................39

Table 3-11: Summary of Technologies to Reduce the Risk of Fire Hazard in Buildings..............................41

Table 3-12: Examination of On-Duty Firefighter Deaths in 2006...............................................................43

Table 3-13: Firefighter Injuries by Nature of Injury and Type of Duty in 2006...........................................44

Table 3-14: Summary of Training and Education Technologies..................................................................48

Table 3-15: Summary of Strategic Resource Utilization Technologies. .....................................................49

Table 3-16: Summary of Situational Awareness Technologies...................................................................50

Table 3-17: Existing and Emerging Equipment Technologies. ...................................................................52
xi

Table 3-18: Existing and Emerging Tactics and Technologies that Support Tactics. ..................................53

Table 3-19: Summary of Technologies to Improve the Safety and Effectiveness of Firefighters..............55

Table 3-20: Prevention: Existing and Emerging Technologies....................................................................61

Table 3-21: Fire Protection Activities: Existing and Emerging Technologies. .............................................63

Table 3-22: Response: Existing and Emerging Technologies. .....................................................................65

Table 3-23: Summary of WUI Technologies................................................................................................67

Table A-1: Value of the U.S. Fire Burden (2008) ............................................................................................. 114

Table B-1: Value of the US Fire Burden, Avoidable Fraction and Preventable Fire Burden....................... 120

Table B-2: Anticipated Reductions in the Preventable Burden of Structural Fires.................................... 127

Table B-3: Anticipated Reductions in Civilian Fire Injuries by Approach..................................................... 129

Table B-4: Anticipated Reductions in Civilian Fire Fatalities by Approach................................................... 130

Table B-5: Anticipated Reduction in the Cost of Property Loss by Approach.............................................. 131

Table B-6: Anticipated Reduction in the Cost of Fire Protection in Constructed Facilities by 

Approach............................................................................................................................................................... 132

Table B-7: Anticipated Reductions in the Cost of Suppression by Approach............................................... 133

Table B-8: Anticipated Reduction in the Cost of Fuel Treatments, Preparedness, and Restoration by 

Approach............................................................................................................................................................... 134

Table B-9: Anticipated Reduction in the Cost of Economic Impact by Approach...................................... 135

Table B-10: Number and Cost of Fire Fighter Fatalities and Injuries by Type of Duty (2006). ................ 138

Table B-11: Anticipated Reductions in Fire Fighter Fatality by Approach. ................................................. 139

Table B- 12: Anticipated Reductions in Fire Fighter Injuries by Approach. ................................................ 140

Table B-13: Anticipated Reductions in Property Loss Costs by Approach. ................................................. 141

Table B-14: Anticipated Reductions in the Cost of Fire Departments by Approach.................................. 142
xii

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

Acronyms 

AFFF Aqueous firefighting foam

AFST NIST’s Advanced Fire Service Technologies Program

AIA American Institute of Architects

ASTM ASTM International (formerly the American Society of Testing and Materials)

ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers 

ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers 

ASET Available Safe Egress Time

ATF Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives

BFRL NIST Building and Fire Research Laboratory

CDC Centers for Disease Control

CFR NBS Center for Fire Research

CNGV compressed natural gas vehicles 

CPSC Consumer Product Safety Commission

DHS Department of Homeland Security

DOE Department of Energy

EHS environmental health and safety

EL NIST’s Engineering Laboratory

EV electric vehicle

FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency

FF firefighter

FR fire retardant

GIS geographic information system

GPS global positioning system
xiii

GSA General Services Administration

HEV hybrid electrical vehicles 

HFCV hydrogen fuel cell vehicles 

HRR heat release rate

HUD Department of Housing and Urban Development

HVAC Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system

IAFC International Association of Fire Chiefs

IAFF International Association of Fire Fighters

IBC International Building Code

IC incident command

ICC International Code Council

IRC International Residential Code

ISO International Organization for Standardization

JFSP Joint Fire Sciences Program

LiDAR Light detection and ranging 

LCA life-cycle analysis

NASFM National Association of State Fire Marshals

NBS National Bureau of Standards

NEMA National Electrical Manufacturers Association

NFPA National Fire Protection Association

NIOSH National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health

NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology

NRC Nuclear Regulatory Commission

PASS Personal Alert Safety System

PBD performance-based design
xiv

PPE personal protective equipment

PHEV plug-in hybrid electrical vehicles

RSET Required Safe Egress Time

SCBA self-contained breathing apparatus

SFPE Society of Fire Protection Engineers

SRM Standard reference material

SwRI Southwest Research Institute

UL Underwriters Laboratories

UMD University of Maryland at College Park

USFA United States Fire Administration

USFS United States Forest Service

VTT Technical Research Center of Finland

WPI Worcester Polytechnic Institute

WUI wildland-urban interface

Abbreviations

B billion

°C degree Celsius

m meter

M million

min minute

s second

W watt
xv

Executive Summary

The burden of fire on the U.S. economy is significant, comprising approximately $310 billion annually, or 

about 2 % of the gross domestic product. Over the last 30 years, the number of reported fires, and the 

number of civilian fire deaths and injuries have decreased due to the efforts of many organizations and 

the American public. On the other hand, the number of civilian deaths and injuries normalized by the 

number of reported fires has essentially remained flat, while the number of firefighter injuries and 

fatalities has significantly increased on a per fire basis. Furthermore, the cost of fire protection has 

increased, and new and potentially costly threats to fire safety are emerging. Consequently, now is an 

appropriate time to address this continuing problem and consider how best to achieve consistent and 

significant reductions in overall fire losses and costs. The National Institute of Standards and Technology 

(NIST) has developed this Roadmap, “Reducing the Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities,” as a 

response to the national fire problem.

This roadmap was developed to provide a shared vision for communication, bring the limited available 

resources to bear on the U.S. fire burden in a focused and creative manner for enhanced effectiveness,

establish a basis for NIST strategic planning, and identify gaps in knowledge and measurement science 

that hinder the development of critical enabling technologies. Because of the size and nature of the 

national fire problem, the only hope of achieving the goal is through strong interaction with other 

organizations in the fire safety, industrial, educational, academic, and standards and code communities. 

This roadmap sets a path that will position the fire research community firmly on the path to addressing 

the national fire problem.

NIST’s long-term vision is that unwanted fire be removed as a limitation to life safety, technical 

innovation, and economic prosperity in the United States. To realize this vision, the long-term goal of

the Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Strategy is to develop and demonstrate the 

measurement science that enables a one-third reduction in the nation's preventable fire burden,*

reducing the impact of fire on communities, structures, their occupants, the fire service, and the 

economy within a generation. 

Based on input from NIST staff and stakeholders nationwide, this roadmap proposes a broad-based set 

of strategic research priorities, laying the groundwork for advances over the next decade. Building on 

previous developments, this roadmap incorporates the most viable approaches and ideas, and methods. 

The document lays a blueprint to address the national fire problem, prioritizing measurement science 

activities, considering previously defined research needs, and proposing research activities that 

reconsider the specific issues that contribute to the national fire problem. 

 

* The preventable portion of the national fire burden is defined as the sum of all costs and losses associated with 

the total fire burden, which could be avoided (reduced) by advancements in measurement science. The estimated 

value of the preventable fire burden is about $100 billion or one-third of the total U.S. fire burden.
xvi

The fire burden is considered in terms of life safety and societal costs. In an effort to address the most 

pressing fire problems, attention is directed towards the burden of fire on communities, structures and

their occupants, the fire service, and the economy in three key areas: 

• Reducing fire risk in buildings,

• Advancing fire service technologies, and

• Reducing fire risk in wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities.

This roadmap is technology centric and stresses the measurement science needed to enable the most 

promising technologies that will reduce the preventable burden of fire in the three focus areas.

• To reduce the preventable burden of fire in buildings, the strategic approach taken in this

roadmap emphasizes cost-effective prevention and mitigation of the fire and exposure of 

people. The priority measurement science outcomes focus on the following:

o Engineered Fire Protection, 

o Safety of Building Occupants,

o Advanced Flammability Performance of Materials and Products,

o Next Generation Reliable Detection of Incipient Fires, and

o Performance-based Design.

• To reduce the preventable fire burden associated with the fire service, the strategic approach

taken in this roadmap emphasizes advanced technologies for the community, the fire 

department, and the firefighter before, during, and after a fire incident. The priority 

measurement science outcomes focus on the following:

o Firefighting Equipment,

o Firefighting Tactics, 

o Firefighter Training and Education, 

o Firefighting Resource Allocation, and

o Firefighter Situational Awareness.

• To reduce the preventable fire burden associated with fire spread in WUI communities, the 

strategic approach taken in this roadmap emphasizes advanced fire mitigation technologies for

WUI building elements and materials, structures, parcels, communities, and surroundings. The 

priority measurement science outcomes focus on the following:

o Prevention of Fire in WUI Buildings and Communities,

o Fire Protection Engineering in the WUI,
xvii

o Response for Improved Fire Fighter Safety and Effectiveness, and People Evacuation, 

and

o Recovery Guidelines for WUI communities.

For each of the three focus areas, a series of strategic outputs and outcomes are identified. The 

emphasis is on outputs that advance existing and emerging technologies, and that address significant 

and preventable portions of the national fire burden. To successfully achieve the technological 

solutions, a series of measurement science hurdles must be overcome. The timeline for the research 

priorities is subdivided into three segments, namely short, medium and long term, varying from less 

than 3 years, 3 years to 8 years, and greater than 8 years, respectively. 

A true measure of programmatic success only will be clear over the next two decades as data on the 

national fire burden becomes available through traceable, third-party fire statistics such as the National 

Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Annual Summary of the U.S. Fire Problem, including a net decrease in 

fire-related:

o civilian injuries and fatalities,

o fire fighter injuries and fatalities,

o direct and indirect fire property losses, and

o fire protection costs.

To monitor progress over the short term, a number of constituent metrics are considered including:

o enabling the development or improvement of codes and standards,

o enabling the development or improvement of best-practices, standard operating 

procedures, or specifications, 

o enabling the development or improvement of new technologies,

o enabling the development or improvement of manufacturing processes,

o the development or improvement of standard reference materials, and

o published research or software that is directly used to support the metrics listed above 

and which reduces the national fire burden. 

Emphasizing the importance of standards and codes in reducing the burden of fire, a detailed standards 

and codes strategy is presented for each of the three fire-related focus areas. 

The importance of partner organizations and collaboration is emphasized. As the timeline and strategy 

have been formulated in terms of the current funding profile, the research priorities reflect a balance of 

scientific promise and cost. The prioritized research objectives represent a realistic opportunity to 

reduce the nation’s preventable fire burden. 
xviii

Acknowledgements

We are indebted to the many organizations and people who have supported NIST’s work and thinking 

on the fire problem. This roadmap would not have been possible without the contributions of the 

partnering, collaborating, and stakeholder organizations, and the individuals that comprise those 

organizations, who are working to create a fire-safe future, including ASTM, ATF, BRE, BRI, CALFire, 

CDC,CFSI, CPSC, DOD, DHS, DOE, DOT, DHS, FEMA, FM Global, FPRF, GSA, HUD, IAA, IAFF, IAFC, ICC, IFF, 

ISO, NAFTL, NASA, NASFM, NFFF, NFPA, NIOSH, NRC, NVFC, NWCC, SFPE, SP, SWRI, UL, UMD, 

USDA,USFA,USFS, VA, VTT, WPI, and many others.
1

1 WHAT THIS ROADMAP IS ABOUT

1.1 WHAT IS A ROADMAP?

A roadmap is a document that starts with a goal and traces the technological paths that lead from the 

current state of knowledge to that goal.1

 In this case, the paths are centered on the principal 

contribution from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), namely measurement 

science. A roadmap typically indicates the potential contribution of each path to meeting the goal, 

enabling sorting of (but not rigidly determining) the best chances for success.

1.2 WHY IS NIST DEVELOPING A ROADMAP?

The landscape for providing fire safety has changed markedly in the 35+ years since the establishment of 

the Center for Fire Research (CFR) within the National Bureau of Standards (NBS, now the National 

Institute of Standards and Technology, NIST). During these four decades, fire safety in the United States 

has improved markedly. In partnership with other organizations, CFR contributed in a significant way to 

the reduction in life loss through conduct of high impact scientific research and shepherding the fruits of 

that research into standards and building codes. As a result, the profile and magnitude of fire losses 

have changed. Some prominent fire scenarios have been addressed, while societal changes and 

commercial advances have led to new fire risks. There have been other contributory changes as well: 

the evolution of fire safety organizations domestically and worldwide, giant strides in technologies that 

have been and could yet be applied to fire safety, and considerable turnover in the population of fire 

scientists. Within the U.S., the demands of both the general public and mission-related agencies have a 

visage substantially different from those of prior decades.

Fire research within NIST has evolved with these changes. NIST fire research continues to be positioned 

in areas in which measurement science* and fundamental understanding of fire can reduce the risk of 

fire and the total social cost of fire to the nation. Over the years, the research has broadened in scope 

from a traditional focus on life safety, to recognition of the importance of overall cost and loss 

reduction. The combination of attention to more recent fire issues, while maintaining attention to 

classical, yet still important fire problems, has led to an assemblage of objectives whose overall focus is 

not readily perceived. It is timely to re-establish a documented strategy and to quantify high-level 

objectives for a Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Goal and its constituent programs. 

This roadmap lays out the logic and structure underlying a strategy to reduce the risk of fire in buildings 

and communities with the following intended functions:

• This roadmap provides a shared vision for communication among NIST staff, management, 

external organizations with fire safety needs, and providers of the products and services that

 

* Measurement science is defined in Section 1.3 of this document.
2

help meet those needs. The NIST Fire Research Program has a unique role, both within the 

United States and internationally. It is important that that role be clearly presented to those 

with whom we interact and those who have expectations for our products. It is beneficial to the 

fire safety community that everyone has a similar understanding of where NIST is going and how 

we plan to get there. 

• The technological layout in this roadmap will help maximize the impact of the limited available 

resources to attack the U.S. fire burden. 

• This document provides a basis for NIST strategic planning, justifying current and new research 

activities, and redirecting low-impact efforts. 

• The roadmap is explicit in identifying the areas of disciplinary expertise that NIST will maintain 

and develop as a resource to assisting Federal agencies and commercial organizations with fire 

issues of concern.

• The roadmap will help to identify gaps in knowledge and measurement science that hinder the 

development of critical enabling technologies.

• The roadmap will provide stimulation for creative, evolutionary and revolutionary thinking for 

removing the burden of fire from society. 

1.3 WHAT IS MEASUREMENT SCIENCE?

We define measurement science broadly, since history has shown that successful reduction of fire losses

involves multiple scientific and technological endeavors, including the following: 

• Understanding of the phenomena responsible for an observed effect (e.g., ignition);

• Development of performance metrics, measurement methods, predictive tools, and protocols as 

well as reference materials, data, and artifacts;

• Conduct of inter-laboratory comparison studies and calibrations;

• Evaluation and/or assessment of technologies, systems, and practices; and

• Development and dissemination of technical guidelines and the basis for standards, codes, and 

practices—in many instances via testbeds, consortia, or partnerships with the private sector.

1.4 DEFINING ROADMAP COMPONENTS

The Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Strategy is composed of three focus areas 

presented in Chapter 2. Within each of the focus areas is a hierarchy, which structures the proposed 

research. This hierarchy is composed of four primary components: problems, approaches, 

technologies, and measurement science challenges. 

The following definitions are terms used in the construction of this roadmap:
3

• Problem: An identified contributor to the national fire burden. Examples include a prevalent

ignition source, lack of a tool for identifying a cost-effective fire safety solution, and inability to 

establish adequate egress capability for a particular facility.

• Goal: A desired result that addresses a critical national problem, which is strategically targeted

through specific, measurable, attainable, realistic and time-targeted objectives.

• Approach: A generic way of addressing a specific problem, such as fire suppression or keeping 

fire-generated smoke from building occupants. 

• Technology: A specific product or tool that addresses a specific problem such as a standardized 

measurement method for the performance of infrared cameras used in search and rescue 

operations or on-chip intelligence for fire detectors that are free of nuisance alarms.

• Measurement Science challenge: A specific research hurdle that hinders or prevents a 

technology from being developed or implemented. 

• Output: A tangible result or completion of a specific measurement science activity or a phase of 

such activity such as publications, reports, and test methods. 

• Outcome: An anticipated consequence of the implementation of an output, which has the 

potential to engender a substantial positive change. Example outcomes include a draft of a new 

or modified standard or code provision, new tools (software, guidelines, databases) for use in 

practice, new knowledge for specific end-use applications, or new technical expertise or 

capabilities such as instrumentation. 

• Impact: A realized change in the U.S. fire burden. 

This roadmap is organized into several parts. Chapter 2 describes the U.S. fire burden in some detail, 

including the historical context of fire research at NBS and NIST, the role of the scientific endeavor 

(referred to herein as measurement science), and key drivers of fire safety progress. Chapter 3 

describes the framework for a strategy to address the national fire problem, including a vision 

statement, a glossary list defining components of the roadmap, a description of the strategic goal and 

objectives of each of the three component focus areas that comprise the Reduced Risk of Fire in 

Buildings and Communities strategy, a list of considerations for assessment of research priorities, a 

description of research considerations to address the objectives for each of the component focus areas. 

From the landscape of Chapter 3, Chapter 4 lists the priority outputs and anticipated outcomes of the 

Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities strategy. Chapter 5 describes the prioritized 

implementation plan to address to national fire problem, and achieve the roadmap goals for the 

measurement science outputs and outcomes outlined in Chapter 4. A standards and codes plan is 

presented, which is a vital part of the implementation strategy. Chapter 6 summarizes the roadmap and 

discusses the role of NIST and others in attaining the fire protection goals. Appendix A provides a 

detailed accounting of the national fire burden. Appendix B provides a detailed accounting of the 

preventable fire burden and how the roadmap objectives can be realized.
4

2 THE U.S. FIRE PROBLEM

2.1 THE ROAD TRAVELED: THE HISTORICAL FIRE PROBLEM AND FIRE 

RESEARCH AT NBS/NIST

Life safety associated with fire in the U.S. has been improving over the last three decades due to the 

concerted efforts of many organizations and individuals, as seen in Figure 2-1.

2

 The decreases are even 

more significant if the rising U.S. population is considered.3,*

 Nonetheless, new, potentially costly 

threats to fire safety are emerging. As a prerequisite to presenting how to best impel further and 

significant reductions in fire losses and costs, it is appropriate first to review previous strategic 

measurement science plans, which contributed to the historic reduction in life loss, how the concerns 

for the U.S. fire burden have evolved, and the nature of that burden today.

Figure 2-1: Civilian fire deaths (data from NFPA).

In 1974, Congress enacted the Federal Fire Prevention and Control Act, in part, as a response to the 1973 

report by the National Commission on Fire Prevention and Control entitled America Burning.

4 Among 

other things, this Act created what have become the U.S. Fire Administration and the National Fire 

Academy. The Act built on existing fire responsibilities at the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) by 

creating the NBS Center for Fire Research (CFR). The intent of the Act was to attack the national fire 

 

* As the U.S. population grew from 1975 to 2000, the per capita decline in fatalities was larger than indicated in 

Fig. 2-1 (see Table 2-3). 
5

problem by defining a Federal role for work in tandem with the States and municipalities. The Act 

authorized research on a broad range of topics, including basic and applied research on the physics and 

chemistry of combustion processes, flame ignition, flame spread, and flame extinguishment; 

combustion products, fires in structures, forest fires, fire behavior, oil blowout fires, transportation 

related fires, industrial fires, fire safety design, biological, physiological, and psychological factors 

affecting fire victims, fire service performance, toxicity, trauma, cardiac conditions, and other hazards, 

tests to determine cause of fire death, improved methods of providing first aid to fire victims, 

characteristics of arsonists and cure of such behavior; reduction of firefighting stress, control or 

prevention of fires; operation tests, demonstration projects, and fire investigations.

The goals of the CFR were based on the 1973 Commission report, which declared that it should be 

possible to reduce the Nation’s fire losses by half in about 14 years.5 In the initial strategic document, 

CFR planners stretched the time line to a generation, taken to be about 20 years, and then sought to 

define the technical work needed to achieve this goal. While there were reservations that such 

objectives went beyond the ability of CFR staff to control outcomes, they took it as their responsibility to 

conduct significant technical work and to push results into practice.5

In 1976*

, the U.S. experienced 2.9 million fires and 8,800 fatalities.6 The CFR approach was based on 

intervening in the principal fire loss scenarios, which were analyzed using available data.†

 These are 

illustrated in Figure 2-2, in which loss scenarios were considered in terms of combinations of an ignition 

source, the first item ignited, and the occupancy type. The Nation met this aggressive life safety goal. 

Between 1976 and 1995, the total number of fire deaths declined to about 4600 and the number of 

reported fires declined to 1.8 million,

‡,7 while the U.S. population grew by about 12 %.8 Since that time, 

the numbers of reported fires and fatalities have declined to 1.5 million and 3,300,

9 respectively, while 

the U.S. population grew an additional 12 %.8

NBS, NIST, and many other organizations§ contributed to the fire safety advances through enabling 

measurement science (defined in Section 1.3) and other means such as education and training.

 

* The 1976 data are cited here, since prior compilations overestimated motor vehicle fire deaths.

† Today’s National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) provides detailed information on fire statistics.

‡ This does not take into account the possibility that the severity of reported fires may have evolved over time.

§ Many key results were conducted or funded by important organizations including:

• Governmental organizations such as ATF, CDC, CPSC, DOD, DHHS, DOE, DOT, DHS, FEMA, GSA, HUD, 

MMS, NIOSH, NRC, USDA, USFA, VA, etc.

• Professional organization such as SFPE, Fire Protection Research Foundation, and others.

• Standards organizations such as ASTM, NFPA, ICC, ISO, and others.

• Industry groups like the North American Fire Testing Laboratories (NAFTL), Underwriters Laboratories (UL) 

and Southwest Research Institute (SWRI), and FM Global.
6

Figure 2-2: Loss scenario methodology, developed as part of the 1976 Center for Fire Research 

roadmap.

Some key results of the research activities during this period at NBS and elsewhere included the 

following:

• Smoke Alarm Siting and Sensitivity Standards – supported the development of smoke alarm 

standards (UL 217, NFPA 74). This led to an increase in sales and decrease in unit cost. By 1998, 

95 % of homes in the U.S. had at least one smoke alarm. 

• Automatic Fire Sprinkler Standards – (NFPA 13D & 13R) supporting development of the only 

installation and design standard for residential sprinkler systems and quick response sprinklers.*

 

• Cigarette Ignition Resistance of Upholstered Furniture (ASTM E-1352 and E-1353 and the 

equivalent NFPA 260 and 261 standards) – developed test methods that have been utilized by 

the upholstered furniture trade associations.10

• Cigarette Ignition Resistance of Mattresses – developed the test method which became the 

basis for 16 CFR Part 1632, promulgated by the Consumer Product Safety Commission. The 

impact occurred over the next approximately 20 years to 30 years, as improved mattresses 

populated U.S. homes.11

• Flooring Radiant Panel – flammability test (ASTM E 648) measures the critical radiant flux for 

flame propagation along floor coverings, simulating an important fire exposure component that 

can develop in building corridors and exit-ways. This led to the end of certain carpet styles 

whose burning could enhance the likelihood of room-to-room fire spread.

 

• Academic research institutions such as Brown University, California Institute of Technology, Harvard 

University, Pennsylvania State University, University of California at Berkeley, University of Maryland, 

University of Pittsburgh., Worcester Polytechnic University, and others.

• International fire and building research laboratories like VTT Finland, BRI Japan, and SP Sweden.

* While widespread adoption of residential sprinklers has not been achieved, the 2009 edition of the International 

Residential Code (IRC) was modified to require residential sprinkler systems for one- and two-family residences.
7

• Pill test for carpets - became the basis for 16 CFR Parts 1630 & 1631 (promulgated by CPSC), 

which was implemented to reduce the risk of carpet ignitions.12

• Children’s sleepwear standard, promulgated by CPSC, which eliminated a particularly heinous 

fire problem, over 100 deaths and many serious burn injuries annually.

• Installation standards for wood burning stoves, fireplace inserts, and chimneys – NFPA 211. At 

the height of the energy crisis of the 1970s and 1980s, alternative heating led to a fire fatality 

rate approaching that of cigarette-initiated fires.*,13

Measurement science also led to or supported additional standards that have guided the 

specification of materials and products, and limited potential fire losses in building and 

transportation systems:

• Subways, Buses, and Train Fire Safety – NFPA 130, Federal Railroad Regulations requiring use of 

fire-safe materials.

• Smoke control: stairwell pressurization and zone smoke control technologies pursued by the 

Veterans Administration. NFPA 92A, B, and the ASHRAE Smoke Control Handbook.

• Cone and Furniture Calorimeters – development of instruments for the scientific 

characterization of material flammability and fire hazard (ASTM 1354, ASTM E 1537, and ASTM E 

2067).

• LIFT – Lateral Ignition and Flame Spread (ASTM E 1321); this test method provides results on 

ignition and horizontal flame spread over materials. 

• Toxicity - ASTM 1678 and the equivalent NFPA 269, the only U.S. method for estimating the 

lethal toxic potency of smoke from a burning item.

• Fire Hazard - ASTM E 1546, which defines procedures for assessing fire hazards.

• Fire Modeling – ASTM E 1355, ASTM E 1472, ASTM E 1591, and ASTM E 1895, which guide the 

development, testing, and documentation of predictive tools of fire development.

Advances in fire measurement science led to standards that are beginning to provide the next 

generation of fire loss reduction:

• Reduced Ignition Propensity Cigarettes – ASTM E 2187 is the basis for regulations in all 50

States, Europe, Australia, and Canada.14

 

* The energy crisis in the late 1970s led to a big increase in the use of wood as an alternate heating source in 

homes and a surge in the number of heating related fires. NBS led a concentrated research effort to provide new 

and updated information to develop appropriate codes and standards for installation of the combustors.
8

• Reduced Mattress Flammability – the basis for 16 CFR 1633, CPSC’s regulation which limits the 

heat release rate of mattresses and thereby, the severity of bedroom fires.

• Improved Firefighter Protective Equipment – enabling safer and more effective firefighting 

through performance metrics and standards for thermal imagers (NFPA 1801) and personal alert 

safety systems.

Measurement science at NIST and elsewhere has led the worldwide movement to simulate the 

spread of fires and their combustion products, enabling the evaluation of a wide range of fire 

prevention and hazard reduction technologies, etc. 

• Fire Models - development and dissemination of fire modeling tools (CFAST, DETACT, CCFM, 

ELVAC, FIRST, FPEtool, Harvard VI, LAVENT, etc.) to enable the transformation from prescriptive 

to performance standards through prediction of the behavior of fire, smoke, and toxic products.

• Advanced Fire Models – development and dissemination of advanced fire dynamic models and 

scientific visualization tools (e.g., the Fire Dynamics Simulator and Smokeview) have 

revolutionized fire protection engineering. 

Recently, significant measurement science has been completed in a number of research areas, some 

not envisioned by the CFR roadmap (see Figure 2-2), including:

• Heat and Visible Smoke Release Measurements – enabling fundamental heat release rate 

measurements worldwide via an improved standard test method.

• Halon Replacements – measurement science for identifying and characterizing the performance 

of environmentally friendly extinguishing methods and alternative agents.

• Building Features – modification of the model building code to include recommendations from 

studies of disasters and building failures, such as the NIST World Trade Center investigation 

report, in an effort to improve the safety of building occupants and first responders.

• Positive Pressure Ventilation Firefighting Tactics – development of effective and safe firefighting

practices, reducing fire service injuries and fatalities.

• Oil Spill Remediation – development of software to assist decision making on burning oil spills 

on water. 

• Reduced Flammability Materials – development of improvements in environmentally friendly 

additives for commercial thermoplastics.

These examples show that measurement science has been necessary to make advances in fire safety. 

The application of measurement science to applied problems has been enabled by supporting

fundamental research on fire science including fire dynamics and fire chemistry. As will be seen in the 

following sections, this paradigm continues to be viable. 
9

2.2 THE U.S. FIRE PROBLEM TODAY

2.2.1 Definitions

Several definitions are used throughout this document to describe the magnitude of the U.S. fire 

problem. A comparison of the definitions is shown in Table 2-1. 

The Core Cost of Fire is the sum of economic losses, cost of career fire departments, net fire insurance 

(premiums collected minus payouts), and cost of fire protection in building construction.2

The Total Fire Burden is the sum of all costs and losses associated with fire. The costs are expenditures 

used to prevent or mitigate the losses from fire. The losses include economic losses (direct and indirect) 

and the monetized social value of fatalities and injuries. There are many other costs, which contribute to

the total fire burden, including the net insurance costs, fire protection costs, career and volunteer fire 

department costs, and wildland fire expenditures. Cost estimates of the components of the total fire 

burden are discussed in the Sections immediately below. More detailed information is given in 

Appendix A. Some costs or parts of the fire burden are preventable, whereas other costs are not 

preventable as explained below. 

The Preventable Fire Burden is the sum of all costs and losses associated with the total fire burden, 

which could be avoided (reduced) by implementation of advancements in measurement science. The 

preventable fire burden can be estimated as the product of the expected fire burden with the avoidable 

fraction for each component of the fire burden. While some components of the fire burden are largely 

not preventable, much of the U.S. fire burden, including direct and indirect economic losses and the 

monetized social value of fatalities and injuries, can be reduced by improving the prevention, control, 

and response to unwanted fires. Some fire costs are largely not preventable.

The non-preventable fire burden is the difference between the total fire burden and the preventable fire 

burden. The non-preventable fire burden can be thought of as those fire protection costs, which are 

required to maintain the current level of life safety and those losses, which are, for example, associated 

with events beyond control. Examples of non-preventable losses and costs are discussed in Appendix B. 

The estimated values of the avoidable fraction and preventable fire burden costs for each of the major 

components of the U.S. fire burden are discussed in Appendix B and given in Table B-1. In aggregate, 

the estimated value of the preventable fire burden is about 30 % of the total U.S. fire burden. Table 2-1 

identifies components of the U.S. fire burden that are estimated as largely* preventable (see Table B-1 

in Appendix B for the estimated values). 

 

* Greater than 20 %.
10

Table 2-1: Comparison of the components of various definitions used in the economic

assessment of the U.S. fire problem.

Total Fire Burden Core Costs Preventable Fire Burden

Civilian Fatalities X X

Civilian Injuries X X

Firefighter Fatalities X X

Firefighter Injuries X X

Direct Economic Losses X X X

Indirect Economic Losses* X X X

Net Insurance Costs X X

Fire Protection Costs X X

Career Fire Department Costs X X

Volunteer Fire Department Value X

Wildland Fire Expenditures X X

2.2.2 The Cost of the U.S. Fire Problem

In 2008, there were 1.5 million reported fires, 3320 civilian fatalities, 16,705 civilian injuries, 105 

firefighter fatalities, and 79,700 firefighter injuries.

2 For 2008, the Total Fire Burden was about $314

billion (in 2008 dollars). This represented about 2.2 % of the gross domestic product† and was 

distributed across structure fires ($185 billion), wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires ($14 billion), vehicle 

and other ($6 billion), and the fire services ($109 billion) (see Appendix A). The Total Fire Burden can be 

further broken down into the cost of fire protection (44 %), firefighting costs (30 %), monetized social 

value of fatalities and injuries (13 %), net insurance costs (5 %), and economic losses (8 %) (see 

Appendix A). Based on the detailed analysis in Appendix A of this report, the U.S. fire burden in 2008 

ranged from $231 billion to $461 billion given current measurement techniques, reported data, and fire 

risks. The preventable fire burden in 2008 was about $102 billion or one-third of the total burden (see

Appendix B). The burden of fire significantly detracts from the optimal use of the nation's resources and 

economic health. 

 

* Indirect losses include the cost of business interruption due to fire; see Appendix A and Ref. 2.

† The GDP in 2008 was $14.3 Trillion (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Statistical Abstract, National Data Book, Table 651; 

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2010/cats/income_expenditures_poverty_wealth/gross_domestic_product_gdp.html )
11

2.2.3 Trends

In the U.S., the declines in the numbers of reported fires, fire deaths, and fire injuries have slowed 

considerably not unlike the trends seen in Figure 2-1 and Table 2-2. The advances in fire safety products 

and human behavior that led to the previous high rates of decline are highly variable and do not exhibit 

a consistent rate of decline. 

Meanwhile, the total burden of fire in the U.S. has been growing and Figure 2-3 shows the rapidly 

increasing Core Costs of fire, which were $138 billion for 2008.

2,* Over the last 28 years, costs due to 

property damage, fire protection used in construction, and career fire departments have increased 

about 35 %, 87 %, and 145 %, respectively, after adjustment for inflation. The U.S. has one of the 

highest direct fire loss rates among developed nations.15 Appendix A provides a detailed explanation of 

the cost of the U.S. fire burden, and discusses details on the major cost areas including an analysis of the 

uncertainty of the estimates. 

Figure 2-1 and Table 2-2 show that in about a quarter century, civilian injuries and fatalities have been 

reduced by roughly one-half, while the reductions in firefighter injuries and fatalities have been 

distinctly smaller. At the same time, the core cost of fire has increased steadily. A significant part of this 

increase has been the increased cost of career firefighting, which has doubled over the last 30 years.

2

Table 2-3 shows the normalized fire losses in the US during the period from 1980 to 2008. While the 

number of reported fires has significantly decreased over the last 28 years, the number of civilian deaths 

and injuries normalized by the number of reported fires has essentially remained flat. For fire fighters, 

the situation is much worse with injuries and fatalities significantly increasing 68 % and 57 %, 

respectively, on a per fire basis over the same time period. In addition, the core costs of fire normalized 

on a per capita basis have risen about 40 % over the last 28 years. 

During this period, Table 2-4 shows that most civilian deaths and injuries occurred in home building

fires. In 2008, about 84 % and 79 % of civilian deaths and injuries, respectively, occurred in home 

building fires.

16 This suggests organizing the burden of fire into four components, including costs 

associated with: 

• fires that initiate in buildings, 

• firefighting,

• fires that initiate in wildlands and spread into a community, and

 

* These were distributed across economic losses ($20 billion), which only accounted for property loss, cost of fire 

departments ($40 billion), cost of net insurance ($15 billion), and the cost of fire protection in building 

construction ($63 billion). For 2008, the Direct Impact of fire was $60 billion. This was composed of direct 

economic losses ($18 billion), which only accounted for direct property loss, and the monetized social value of 

fatalities and injuries ($42 billion). See Appendix A for further discussion.
12

• vehicle, outdoor, and other fires.

The costs for each of these components are discussed next.

Table 2-2: U.S. Fire Losses from 1980 to 2008.2

Year Reported

Fires

Civilian 

Deaths

Civilian 

Injuries

Firefighter 

Deaths

Firefighter 

Injuries

Core Cost of 

Fire

($ billion In 

2008 dollars)

1980 3,000,000 6,505 30,200 138 98,070 $74 

1990 2,250,000 5,195 28,600 108 100,300 $86 

2000 1,750,000 4,045 22,350 103 84,550 $102 

2008 1,451,500 3,320 16,705 105 79,700 $138 

Table 2-3: Normalized U.S. Fire Losses from 1980 to 2008.2

Year Reported

Fires per Capita

Civilian 

Deaths per 

1000 Fires

Civilian 

Injuries per 

1000 Fires

Firefighter 

Deaths per 

1000 Fires

Firefighter 

Injuries per 

1000 Fires

Core Cost of 

Fire per Capita

(in 2008 

dollars)

1980 0.0132 2.2 10.1 0.046 32.7 $326

1990 0.0090 2.3 12.7 0.048 44.6 $344

2000 0.0062 2.3 12.8 0.059 48.3 $362

2008 0.0048 2.3 11.5 0.072 54.9 $454

Table 2-4: U.S. Fire Losses by Type in 2008.16

Fire Type Reported Fires Deaths Injuries Property Loss ($ B)

Building Fires * 515,000 2,900 14,960 14

Wildland Fires 364,000 18 257 3.1

Vehicle & Outside Fires 572,000 402 1,488 1.8

* Buildings and mobile properties used as fixed structures.
13

2.2.4 Fire Burden Associated with Fires that Initiate in Buildings.

Table 2-4 provides a summary of fire losses by type in 2008. The numbers of fires in each of the three 

main fire types in the table are all of the same order of magnitude with building fires associated with the 

highest number of injuries and fatalities. While life loss in non-residential construction was relatively 

small, the cost of fire protection in non-residential buildings was about twice as large as that of 

residential structures.17 

2.2.5 Fire Burden Associated with Fires that Initiate in Wildlands and Spread into 

Communities

Fires in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) spread through both vegetative and structural fuels. These 

fires can originate in either fuel type but usually begin in wildland fuels of natural (e.g., lighting strikes) 

or manmade (e.g., campfires, runaway prescribed fires, downed or arcing power lines, arson) causes. 

Documentation of the costs resulting from wildland and WUI fire incidents is less established and 

comprehensive than for fires within buildings. Figure 2-3 shows that the WUI structural fire problem is 

an accelerating issue. The total WUI fire burden is expected to double within the next decade (see 

Appendix A).

Figure 2-3: Average number of structures destroyed per year in WUI fires by decade from the 

1960s to the 2000s.

18
14

2.2.6 Fire Burden Associated with Fires that Initiate in Vehicles and the Outside

In 2008, there were about 207,000 reported vehicle fires, 320,000 reported outside fires, and 45,000 

reported fires classified as ‘other.’ These fires accounted for a significant number of life safety losses 

with vehicle fires comprising 87 % of the civilian fatalities, 57 % of the civilian injuries, and 77 % of the 

property losses in these categories of fire incidents. 

2.2.7 Fire Burden Associated with Fighting Fires

The costs of firefighting associated with maintaining career and volunteer fire departments and the 

costs associated with fatalities and injuries are estimated as about $110 billion (see Table A-1 in 

Appendix A). The cost of maintaining career fire departments was $40 billion in 2006, with another 

$50 billion estimated as the value provided by volunteer departments. These costs support 

approximately 1.1 million firefighters.19 In 2008, there were about 105 firefighter fatalities and 79,700

injuries, with 46 % of the injuries occurring on the fire ground.20 

Fire Departments often have duties beyond firefighting. About three-fourths (77 %) and two-thirds 

(69 %) of departments say that hazardous material response (Hazmat) and emergency medical service 

(EMS), respectively, are roles that their department performs.21 Yet, the primary driver of a career fire 

department costs are labor, accounting for about 87 % of fire department budgets.2 In addition, the 

primary determinant of staffing for fire departments is the need to provide coverage and readiness to 

respond for a certain geographic area, that is, the ability to provide a safe, effective response in a certain 

response time.2 Thus, the primary factor in the cost of the fire service is not workload, but geographical 

area; the vast majority of fire department costs are not sensitive to marginal changes in fire or non-fire 

responsibilities. For these reasons, fire service costs here and in Appendices A and B are taken as 

roughly the same with or without EMS and HAZMAT activities, within the uncertainties in the cost 

estimates. 

2.3 KEY DRIVERS OF FIRE SAFETY PROGRESS

Societal influences and technological changes can support or inhibit fire safety progress and may evolve 

with time. Some of the key drivers affecting fire safety progress are listed in Table 2-5. 

Sustainability, climate change, and environmental and human health considerations are key drivers of 

fire safety progress.25 For example, weather conditions, including recent droughts in the western U.S. 

have exacerbated fire incidents in WUI communities. WUI incidents may become more widespread as 

the global climate continues to change. Changing building designs and practices as well as the use of 

advanced materials and technologies in a march towards improved energy efficiency and net zeroenergy buildings may present new fire protection challenges and opportunities.

Technology is a key driver of fire safety practice. Faster and less expensive computing power enhances 

the trend toward routine use of fire models for building design, product evaluation, etc. New sensors

may yield earlier and less ambiguous detection of incipient fires. Advanced materials could lead to 
15

reduced flammability of products, improved effectiveness of fire suppressants, or improved protective 

gear for fire fighters.

Regulation can be a key driver. Model code changes recommending the installation of automatic water 

sprinklers in new residential construction represent a unique fire safety opportunity. Legislation 

mandating reduced ignition propensity cigarettes will have a large impact on fire safety, provided that 

enabling measurement science continues to provide support. 

Other drivers reflect changes in demographics, which can influence the fire loss profile as the risks of fire 

death and injury vary by age group, race, region, and community size. For example, children under five 

and adults 65 or older face the highest risk of fire death, although they do not account for the majority 

of fire fatalities. According to the NFPA, fire death rates are seen in states with larger than average

percentages of people who possess one or more of the following characteristics: poor, smoker, having

less formal education, or living in a rural area.

22 New communities in the US are being built near 

wildlands, with almost 50,000 communities in the U.S. now located in the WUI and particularly 

vulnerable to WUI fires. 

Professional inertia, exemplified by the current system of often archaic and prescriptive fire standards 

and codes, stifles innovation in fire safety systems, technologies, and building design. From the reverse 

perspective, constancy in the acceptance and approval processes eases the acceptance of 

improvements in the current standards and codes system. 

Economics have a sharp influence on fire safety progress, especially as the nation emerges from a 

serious economic downturn. Under such circumstances, first cost may become a larger consideration. 

Financial constraints on localities can place limits on fire service resource allocation. Provisions to 

enhance fire endurance comprise a significant fraction of construction costs. The immense bill for 

repairing aging infrastructure requires new approaches to preserving fire performance while restoring 

functionality. 
16

Table 2-5: Key Drivers Affecting Fire Safety Progress.

Support Progress Inhibit Progress Both Support and Inhibit

• Emergence of new & less

expensive technologies 

and materials

• More powerful computing 

capabilities

• New building code 

requirements

• Safety legislation

• New fire safety standards

• Increased capability for 

performance-based design

• Security concerns

• Economic benefits

• measurement science gaps

• First cost

• Aging and insufficiently 

maintained infrastructure

• Reliance on prescriptivebased rules & improper 

implementation of 

performance-based design

• Global climate change

• Perception of fire as a small 

problem

• Demand for reduced cost of 

construction

• Sustainability and 

environmental issues 

• International harmonization 

of fire standards

• Changing financial support 

for local fire departments, 

fire service equipment, and 

fire research 

• Changing demographics

• Changing building contents 

components, and 

configurations

While the solution to many challenging fire related problems continues to be elusive, there are also 

emerging problems that need attention and the potential or actual re-emergence of previously 

addressed problems, mainly due to the dynamic nature of the drivers of fire safety progress. For 

example, newly realized environmental and health risks can threaten hard-won gains in fire safety. 

Justifiable concerns for stratospheric ozone depletion led to new science to replace the halogenated fire 

suppressants (Halons) and to identify new refrigerants of low flammability. A combination of extensive 

measurement science and industrial product expertise resulted in non-carcinogenic replacements for 

polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in electrical systems. In a similar way, replacements for asbestos were 

sought and implemented beginning in the 1970s and 1980s. Today, the persistence of brominated fire 

retardants in the environment is driving the search for alternatives to the current compounds. WUI fires 

are a prime example of a rapidly emerging fire safety problem. Vigilance is needed to identify and 

respond to challenges associated with emerging and re-emerging fire challenges.

Whether these drivers represent opportunities or constraints, taking advantage of them will require 

advances in fire measurement science. The current gaps in understanding (see Section 2.4 below) limit 

the ability to create new fire safety technologies, to devise efficient ways to make fire safer products 

without sacrificing other functional requirements, and to demonstrate that proposed innovations are 

technically feasible, safe, and economically viable.23 As the factors that affect fire safety progress 

change, new measurement science hurdles emerge that hinder the implementation of technologies that 

could successfully address the U.S. fire problem.
17

2.4 GAPS IN MEASUREMENT SCIENCE

Gaps in measurement science hinder the application of technologies that could address the nation’s fire 

problems. The gaps are both fundamental and applied in nature. To address these gaps, knowledge, 

standard test methods, methodologies to interpret the test results, and validated predictive methods

are needed. The degree of complexity of interacting fire processes involving complex chemistry, 

radiative and convective heat transfer, combustion mode, fluid dynamics, structural dynamics, firestructure interaction, and human behavior preclude the use of existing approaches and tests that 

address only one of these disciplines. Furthermore, insufficient understanding of these interacting fire 

processes inhibits accurate simulation of fire spread, growth, detection, suppression and egress in a 

typical building fire. Gaps in modeling capability and appropriate test methods and methodologies, 

preclude the ability to demonstrate that proposed innovations are technically feasible, safe, and 

economically viable.

For fire protection in buildings, methodologies are needed to account for uncertainties in the estimate 

of safety margins for fire performance and to demonstrate that proposed innovations are technically 

feasible, safe, and economically viable. For fire measurements, advances are difficult to implement due 

to extremely harsh thermal environments, transient chemical species, soot-laden flows, measurement 

interference, scaling issues, and turbulent flow fields. There are many other areas that need improved 

understanding. For fire modeling, for example, knowledge is needed to be able to predict the pyrolysis 

of and flame spread on heterogeneous building materials, sub-lethal toxicity of fire products, human 

behavior in fire environments, including egress and ingress in emergency situations, temperatureinduced failure of structural elements and load redistribution in fire-weakened structures, and 

innovative training methods for first responders and code officials. In all of these areas, the lack of a 

quantitative understanding of uncertainty and system performance precludes the development of 

rational safety factors for fire protection engineering analysis and design. 

There are numerous measurement science gaps that apply to firefighter safety and effectiveness. 

Firefighters do not usually have in-depth fire science and engineering backgrounds. The challenge is to 

provide training materials and tools that give firefighters a better understanding of the effects of their 

strategies and tactics without overwhelming them with physics, chemistry, and mathematics. A 

measurement science gap for the fire service is the need for an improved understanding of the causal 

relationship between firefighters and heart attacks. Statistically, about half of the on-duty firefighter 

deaths are due to heart attacks; however, it is not conclusively known what the relationship is between 

firefighting and heart disease, or even if there is one.24 What are the health risk factors which can be 

used to screen recruits? From the firefighting perspective, building and WUI fires are scenes of 

“organized chaos” in the sense that there is usually a lot of noise, reduced visibility, and a strong sense 

of urgency to do the right thing quickly. In this working environment, there is a need for sensors that 

can provide usable information about fire spread, tenability, the location and physical condition of 

firefighters and civilians, and the condition of the structures. Post-incident evaluation of the cause and 

origin of a fire has not traditionally had a solid foundation in fire physics. Lastly, as environmental 

concerns become more prevalent, measurement science will be needed to understand the 
18

consequences of fighting fires in which materials are burning that have different, unusual, or unknown 

toxicity.

Addressing the full extent of the WUI fire problem will require improving the fire resistance of structures 

and communities, improving defensive technologies and tactics, and improving the safety and 

effectiveness of WUI fire fighters. Part of the WUI fire challenge is due to the large range of relevant 

spatial and temporal scales, environments, and physical processes, all of which present measurement 

challenges. The scales range from small-scale process of the initial wildfire ignition event to the 

transport of smoke over thousands of kilometers. The complexity of community evacuation and the 

negative health impact due to smoke exposure are also important. Advances are needed for a broad 

range of measurement science issues including laboratory results, field tool development, and modeling 

methods. Critical to a science based approach to reducing the physical destruction of WUI fires is the 

proven relevance of laboratory findings to outcomes in real-scale events. Effective standard test 

methods for building materials and assemblies are needed. Community-scale guidelines are needed to

assess and improve WUI community and firefighter safety. This will require field measurements and 

post-fire data collection of WUI fuels and structure attributes, weather and fire behavior, and first 

responder and community actions during WUI event. WUI fire modeling tools need field and laboratory 

measurements to ensure validation. 

The strategic objectives for addressing the national fire problem are described below in terms of the 

approaches and prioritized measurement science activities that can be implemented to reduce the 

preventable burden of fire on society. Application of measurement science will enable the introduction 

of technological solutions to the pressing fire issues faced by regulating agencies, product 

manufacturers, and designers of facilities.
19

3 THE ROAD AHEAD

3.1 A VISION STATEMENT

The fact that the national fire burden has changed so dramatically in scope and in composition prods us 

toward a new vision, a new goal, a new set of objectives, and the bringing of new technology to bear. 

This vision is founded in the historically validated precept that measurement science can play a pivotal 

role in:

• saving people’s lives from fires,

• helping firefighters do their jobs better and more safely, 

• helping save people’s homes and communities from structural fires and wildfires, 

• promoting U.S. exports by furthering sound international fire safety standards, and

• advancing U.S. commerce by enabling the development, and bringing to market, fire-safe 

products and the capability to design facilities whose fire protection is performance based (i.e., 

providing equal or improved fire safety at lower cost, freeing up national resources for other 

national priorities).

Stamping out the roots of today's fire losses and costs is insufficient to realizing this vision. Large-scale 

changes within the country and the world can neutralize prior efforts to reduce fire losses, as cited in 

Section 2.3. These often unanticipated societal and other types of changes require that the 

understanding of fire phenomena continue to advance in order to be prepared to address new and 

recurring fire threats in a timely manner.

It is also recognized that, while NIST plays a unique role in furthering fire protection and public safety, its 

role is primarily supportive or enabling. NIST does not promulgate building codes or product standards, 

does not do compliance testing, does not test or manufacturer fire protection products, and does not

promote the use of such products in the marketplace. NIST’s role is to conduct measurement science. 

In this manner, NIST seeks to work with the greater fire, manufacturing, user, and regulatory

communities to enable a fire-safe future.

NIST’s long-term vision is that unwanted fire be removed as a 

limitation to life safety, technical innovation, and economic 

prosperity in the United States
20

3.2 THE REDUCED RISK OF FIRE IN BUILDINGS AND COMMUNITIES

STRATEGY 

The Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Strategy will be accomplished through critical 

measurement science, which will enable the reduction of the impact of fire on communities, structures, 

building occupants, firefighters, and the economy.

To achieve the goal of reducing the risk of fire spread in buildings and communities, the focus is on 

outputs and outcomes that are likely to have a major impact on fire costs, losses and benefits to the 

nation. Selection of paths to the goal involves consideration of:

• cost and loss reduction of the nation's fire burden,

• existence and emergence of beneficial techniques and technologies that can be enabled by 

measurement science, 

• successful delivery of measurement science with a focus on high impact, and

• overcoming barriers to the implementation of critical technologies, including market readiness, 

which may involve cost and non-financial barriers.

The emphasis is on outputs and outcomes that advance existing and emerging technologies, and that 

address significant and preventable portions of the national fire burden. To successfully achieve the 

technological solutions, a series of measurement science hurdles must be overcome. The timeline for 

the research priorities are broken into three categories, namely short, medium and long term, varying 

from less than 3 years, 3 to 8 years, and greater than 8 years, respectively. A true measure of 

programmatic success will only be clear over the next generation as data on the national fire burden 

become available through traceable, third-party fire statistics such as the NFPA Annual Summary of the 

U.S. Fire Problem, including a net decrease in fire-related:

o civilian injuries and fatalities,

o fire fighter injuries and fatalities,

o direct and indirect fire property losses, and

o fire protection costs.

In the short term, contribution to the strategic goal can be evaluated based on constituent metrics (see

Section 5.6 of this report), which includes a broad list of measurement science outcomes including 

enabling the development or improvement of codes and standards, best-practices, standard operating 

The goal of this Strategic Roadmap is to reduce the preventable 

fire burden in the United States by one-third within a generation. 
21

procedures, or specifications, technologies, standard reference materials, manufacturing processes, 

patents, and research publications or software that is used and cited. 

It is noted that there may be multiple approaches possible to attack parts of the fire burden. In the past 

decade, several organizations have performed similar planning exercises and proposed various 

strategies to attack parts of the current U.S. fire burden.

23,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32 This roadmap builds on the 

results of those efforts and considers the critical needs that they cite. 

Enabling significant reductions in fire costs and losses will require technical innovation. While there are 

some important, already available technologies, a number of these will require additional measurement 

science to achieve their full impact. A strategy to ensure impact requires continued commitment as 

described in Chapter 5 of this document. And there is a premium on creative advances in the underlying 

fire science and new concepts for attacking individual fire problems, even if the targets of these 

innovations have been previously recognized.

The measurement science to enable this goal is organized into three strategic focus areas, addressing 

fire risk: 

Reduced Fire Risk in Buildings:* To develop and deploy advances in measurement science to increase 

the safety of building occupants and the performance of structures and their contents by enabling 

innovative, cost-effective engineered fire protection technologies . 

Advanced Fire Service Technologies: To develop and deploy advances in measurement science to 

increase the effectiveness and safety of fire fighters by enabling the development of improved 

equipment, and science-based tactics and training tools for the fire service. 

Reduced Fire Risk in Wildland-urban Interface (WUI) Communities: To develop and deploy advances in 

measurement science to mitigate WUI fires and increase the fire performance of structures and 

communities in the WUI by enabling development of innovative engineered fire protection technologies,

fire resistant designs, standard test methods, and risk assessment tools for use by architects, builders, 

community decision-makers, homeowners, and fire officials. 

 

* The Nation's fire problem extends to transportation and industrial settings. Although these applications are not 

the primary focus of the work considered here, the measurement science and the enabling technologies described 

in this document are expected to have a favorable impacts on these components of the U.S. fire burden.
22

3.3 STRATEGIC FOCUS AREA: REDUCED FIRE RISK IN BUILDINGS

This strategic area is focused on reducing the cost of fire protection and fire losses through a 

combination of approaches involving fire prevention and fire mitigation by reducing the risk of ignition,

and improved egress, materials, detection, structural fire resistance, engineered fire protection, and 

post-fire analysis. The burden of building fires in 2008 was characterized by the 500,000 reported fires, 

2,900 civilian fatalities, 14,960 civilian injuries, $14 billion in direct property loss, $63 billion in fire 

protection in constructed facilities, and $74 billion in fire protection costs for equipment and standards 

(see Table 2-2, Table 2-4, and Table B-1). 

3.3.1 Objective

The long-term objective of this focus area is to develop the measurement science needed to enable a 

decrease of one-third of the preventable burden of building fires within a generation.

* Reduction of the

burden of building fires on society is characterized in the long-term by traditional metrics: deaths and 

injuries to building occupants, direct fire-related property losses, and expenses associated with 

providing a desired or mandated level of fire protection. Short-term metrics for this strategic focus area 

are described in detail in Chapters 4 and 5. 

Overall, intervention in the fire problem in buildings is easier to assess by dividing buildings into two

characteristics:

• Function: commercial or residential

• State: existing or future

The benefits of subdividing the building fire problem in this way are apparent upon examination of the 

characteristics of life loss due to fire and the feasibility of preventative expenditures. For example, in a 

typical year, about 90 % of the civilian fatalities and injuries occur in residences, indicating that 

significant gains in life safety are best targeted at dwellings. Further, within residential construction, an 

approach such as increasing the number of stairwells is more feasible in new construction than in 

existing construction, while improved reliability and earlier fire detection applies to both types. Retrofit 

with automatic sprinklers is more likely to reduce residential fire losses, since these systems are already

present in a large fraction of commercial buildings and since life loss from fires is relatively small there. 

The cost of fire protection in a commercial building is typically higher than for a dwelling, so fire safety 

technologies that reduce construction cost may be most effective. For the above reasons, the primary 

emphasis is on residential and commercial buildings rather than other types of structures (bridges, 

ports, aircraft, subways, trains, etc.). Nonetheless, the measurement science supporting Reduced Risk 

of Fire in Buildings and Communities is expected to also support advances for fire protection in all 

structures.

 

* Appendix B provides a detailed accounting of the preventable fire burden and how the objective can be realized.
23

3.3.2 Fire Safety Framework

While there are other viable formalisms, the NFPA Guide to the Fire Safety Concepts Tree33 is a useful 

framework for deriving strategies to evaluate how fire protection objectives can be achieved. It involves 

two main parts, including effective strategies for preventing and managing a fire and those exposed to a 

fire. As a formalism, it addresses both the cost-effectiveness of fire protection and life safety issues, and 

is generally applicable to both commercial and residential buildings. Systematic consideration of how to 

intervene in the fire timeline is a key part of the analysis, addressing the incident before and during fire 

occurrence. 

Figure 3-1: Representation of approaches to reduce the fire risk in buildings.

To prevent the fire before a would-be incident and to mitigate the hazard during a fire event, several 

approaches are important including:

• Reducing ignition at the source and/or nearby items (or preventing secondary ignition),
24

• Improving detection including the sensitivity and reliability of detection and recognition of fire in 

its early stages in order to initiate suppression or containment systems,

• Decreasing the fire hazard by controlling the rate of fire growth and the spread of flames and 

smoke through the use of improved materials and products,

• Mitigating the growth and spread of the fire through use of engineered fire protection systems, 

and

• Performance-based design methods to maximize design flexibility while minimizing the cost of 

installed fire protection.

To address the exposure of people and structural assemblies to a fire, several approaches are helpful, 

including:

• Improving detection including the sensitivity and reliability of detection and recognition of fire in 

its early stages in order to alert the occupants promptly,

• Assuring adequacy of the egress capacity relative to demand through efficient building design 

and effective emergency management, 

• Performance-based design methods to maximize design flexibility while minimizing the cost of 

egress and structural systems, and

• Fire resistance of structural systems and assemblies to ensure appropriate design performance 

during a fire.

The fire problem in buildings is addressed through a hierarchy of approaches as noted above and 

described below.

3.3.3 Reduced Risk of Ignition 

Ideally, the fire problem would be solved through fire prevention. This would eliminate the potential for 

adverse outcomes and obviate the need to respond and mitigate the impacts of fire. Prevention of 

unwanted ignitions can be accomplished by weakening or eliminating the ignition sources or by making 

their "targets" sufficiently resistant to thermal threats. Table 3-1 and Table 3–2 contain National Fire 

Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) data as analyzed by the NFPA.

34 Most of the fire losses are accounted 

for by relatively few ignition sources and first items ignited. In Table 3-1, cigarettes ("smoking 

materials") stand out as the leading ignition source, accounting for approximately one-fourth of the fire 

deaths and one-tenth of the injuries.35 Flaming ignitions ("open flame" and "cooking" in the table) 

account for one-third of the deaths and half of the injuries, suggesting a high potential for improved 

ignition resistivity of the first items ignited. Heating equipment was a leading ignition source.

36 The 

leading six ignition sources accounted for approximately 90 % of the total civilian fire deaths and injuries

in the US. Residual property loss resulted from a number of causes that may or may not be easily 

addressed by practical technologies enabled by measurement science. In the table, the first ignited 

items accounting for approximately one-third or more of the deaths, injuries and property damage are 

not specified. Most of these are associated with "unclassified" items (e.g., trash, clothing) or multiple 

items. About half of the losses are associated with ignition sources that are unknown. Improved 

knowledge and tools to help improve fire investigation and analysis to enable the accurate identification 
25

of fire source, cause, and origin would be useful to help plan appropriate solutions and address trends in 

the national fire loss profile.

Table 3-1: Leading Annual Fire Losses from Home Structure Fires from 2003 - 2006, grouped by 

Ignition Source.

34

Leading Ignition Sources Fires Civilian 

Deaths

Civilian 

Injuries

Property Damage 

($ B)

Intentional 17,900 320 870 0.5

Smoking Materials 13,400 710 1,240 0.4

Open flame (candle, lighter, matches) 25,500 440 2,140 0.7

Electrical Distribution/Lighting 21,200 370 840 0.7

Heating Equipment 67,400 620 1,610 1.0

Cooking 150,200 500 4,660 0.8

Subtotal of Above Categories 295,600 2,760 11,400 4.1

Totals A 378,600 2,850 13,090 6.1

Percentage of U.S. Fire Burden B 23 88 80 50

A. Includes results for all ignition sources (not just those listed here), but does not include unknown sources. Unknown 

sources account for about one-half of direct property losses and are not listed here. The uncertainty associated with the

numbers in the table needs further study.

B. The U.S. totals are listed in Table 2-2.

As shown in Table 3-2, soft furnishings (upholstered furniture and beds) were the first items ignited in 

fires that led to about one-third of the deaths, one-sixth of the injuries, and one-ninth of the property 

damage in home structure fires.34 In addition to the first item ignited, the fire load (including interior 

furnishings and finishes) and its potential for fire growth and spread are also critical to fully 

understanding fire hazard. 

It is highly likely that new measurement science can enable advanced ignition prevention technologies

and substantively reduce the 1+ million remaining fires reported each year. Possible technologies 

involving innovation advances in materials chemistry of furnishings and construction products are 

presented in the next section. Possible technologies that address the ignition sources themselves are 
26

summarized in Table 3-3 and discussed more fully in Chapter 4. These include kitchen fires and 

electrical distribution fires, where a number of novel and promising approaches are emerging.

Table 3-2: Leading Annual Losses from Home Structure Fires from 2003 - 2006, grouped by First 

Item Ignited.

34

First Item Ignited Fires Deaths Injuries Property 

Damage 

($ B)

Upholstered furniture 7,400 590 900 0.4

Mattress/bedding 11,200 380 1390 0.4

Thermoplastics A 29,400 280 1160 0.7

Structural member, component or 

insulation

32,500 240 620 1.3

Other furniture or utensils 6,000 170 500 0.2

Confined cooking fire/materials B 134,900 130 3670 0.3

Interior wall covering 8,200 120 340 0.3

Subtotal of Above Categories 229,600 1,910 8560 3.6

Totals C 378,600 2850 13,090 6.1

Percentage of U.S. Fire Burden D 23 88 80 50

A. It is assumed that the overriding reason that the items (in the categories for curtains, wire insulation, carpeting, and 

appliance housings) first ignited was due to thermoplastic content.

B. Cooking could also lead to ignition of cabinetry and interior wall coverings (not included here).

C. Includes results for all ignition sources (not just those listed here, but does not include unknown sources. Unknown sources 

account for about one-half of direct property losses and are not listed here. The uncertainty associated with the numbers in 

the table needs further study.

D. The U.S. totals are listed in Table 2-2.
27

Cooking fires are the number one cause of home fires and home fire injuries.* According to the NFPA, 

more than half (55 %) of home cooking fires start with the ignition of food or other cooking materials, 

and most involve unattended frying on a range top. Recent workshops have identified cooking fire 

prevention and suppression research needs.37,38,39 A self-regulating cook-top is a promising emerging 

technology.39

In 2006, electrical distribution or lighting equipment was identified as a significant fraction of the first 

item ignited in residential fires, accounting for about 120,000 fires, 860 civilian deaths and more than 

$2.3 billion in property loss. A majority of these electrical fires were the result of wiring and related 

equipment such as cords and plug failures, possibly due to wiring degradation associated with aging 

(elevated temperature and temperature cycling, humidity effects, etc.) and/or physical damage 

associated with the installation or in-situ animal damage. Electrical distribution fires account for about 

6 % of the total fires in residential homes, but 12 % of civilian deaths, which indicate that electrical fires 

are one of the deadliest fire types to occur in homes. CPSC has suggested that arc fault interrupters 

could address a significant fraction of these fires.40 Improved flammability behavior of wire and cable 

insulation could have a big impact on the electrical distribution fire problem. The cost/benefits of 

possible solutions need consideration.

Table 3-3: Ignition Prevention Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Less fire-prone cigarettes

• Arc-fault circuit interrupters

• Second-generation low ignition propensity 

cigarettes

• Next generation self-monitoring space heaters

• Advanced materials and coatings

• Self-regulating cook-top units

3.3.4 Improved Materials and Products

As shown in the prior section, soft furnishings (upholstered furniture and beds) are frequently the first 

items ignited in fires that led to one-third of the deaths, one-sixth of the injuries, and one-ninth of the 

property damage. Soft furnishings, in addition to being a major contributor to fire losses, are amenable 

to fire safety improvements due to the fact that they are exchanged within homes on a ten to twenty 

year time frame. Thus, unlike other items such as building materials or wire and cables, a change in soft 

furnishing product performance can have widespread impact in less than twenty years. Beyond soft 

furnishings, thermoplastic polymers (curtains, wiring cable insulation, carpeting and electronic appliance 

 

* Homes are defined as dwellings, duplexes, manufactured homes, apartments, townhouses, rowhouses and 

condominiums.
28

housings) appear to play a large role in the first item ignited in over 29,000 fires per year, resulting in 

280 deaths, over 1,100 injuries, and almost $1 billion in property damage. In addition, thermoplasticbased fabrics used in upholstered furniture and bedding are a significant contributor to annual fire 

losses from these two classes of products. 

Should a combustible item become ignited, controlling the severity of the ensuing fire begins with 

limiting the item's mass burning rate and the related heat release rate. This improves life safety 

outcomes in multiple ways. Low burning rates delay or even prevent the generation of untenable 

thermal conditions and harmful levels of toxic smoke, which is the principal cause of deaths in fires. 

Keeping the burning rate small also reduces the potential for igniting successive items in the room, 

either by direct flame spread or as a result of room flashover. In the extreme, the initial burning 

generates insufficient heat to continue the combustion, and the product appears as ignition-resistant.

Missing from the U.S. fire statistics is the role of the second (or sequential) items ignited. In many cases, 

there is evidence that some secondary combustible took a small fire to the level that resulted in death, 

injury, or extensive property damage. The role in the U.S. fire burden of high heat content, high heat 

release rate items (e.g., upholstered furniture) is probably significantly underestimated. Resolving the 

fire data issue and addressing the challenge of resisting larger ignition sources (from the first ignited 

item) are roles for NIST measurement science. With the exception of the U.S. mattress standard (16 CFR 

1633), resistance to ignition by a previously burning item has not been considered.

There are a number of small-scale tests that are used to screen individual materials for ease of ignition 

and potential for fire spread. These include UL 94, Limiting Oxygen Index, ASTM E 1352 and 

ASTM E 1353. However, these cannot capture the effect of the other components in, for example, a 

mattress or an upholstered chair.

Thus, a number of prescriptive fire regulations for furniture, mattresses and other furnishings require 

testing of the full product. While more accurate for estimating contribution to fire hazard, these tests 

can be an impediment to the development of improved fire-safe products by U.S. industry. A 

requirement that each new material be formulated and fabricated into a final product to evaluate its 

flammability performance is prohibitively costly for industry. 

The solution lies in small-specimen tests that enable the accurate prediction of a component material’s 

flammability contribution at real scale. This is an undertaking that is supremely challenging and has not 

been successful over the past decades. However, it is a challenge the NIST fire program must accept, 

since such metrics are critical to the commercial development of less fire-prone products in an 

environment where the societal constraints continue to increase. Specific examples include ignition and 

flame spread contribution from upholstered furniture components, spark ignition resistance in 

thermoplastic wire and cable insulation, and thermal protection provided by fire barrier materials.

In addition to flammability behavior, it may be important to know when the smoke from a burning 

product is of high or unusual toxic potency. This affects the time over which spaces and egress paths in 

a burning building remain tenable as occupants and responders are exposed to cumulative doses of the 
29

smoke. Thus, bench-scale (small specimen) methods to enable accurate prediction of the full-scale toxic 

potency of materials and furnishings is critical to both the screening of materials prior to approval for 

use in buildings, as well as computational prediction of the performance of candidate building designs. 

Successful scaling requires knowledge of combustion conditions and material composition, proportion, 

orientation, and geometry.

In recent years, the demand has been increasing for products that are sustainable, as characterized 

using life cycle assessment (LCA). While the formulations for these methods are well along and 

sometimes standardized, they require input data which do not exist for many new materials, especially 

for fire performance. Indeed, the National Research Council reports that lack of appropriate data is a 

significant barrier to sustainability analyses and the resulting decision making for U.S. industry in 

general.41 Examples pertinent to this focus area are toxicity data for replacement fire retardants 

(especially nanomaterials) and data on the retention/diminution of fire performance over the life of use 

of a product. Such areas require extensive research to gather this complex information. In this daunting 

environment are a number of existing and emerging technologies for burning rate reduction that could 

lead to significant decreases in the U.S. fire burden. These are summarized in Table 3-4 and discussed 

more fully in Chapter 4. 

There are potential barriers to implementation of less flammable materials and products, especially if 

their first cost is higher than the products they would replace. First, without regulations requiring their 

sale, higher cost home furnishings, appliances, etc. are less likely to be purchased and thus less likely to 

penetrate the market. Second, there are emerging concerns regarding the environmental safety of 

certain fire retardant additives that could expand to encompass many other fire-resistive materials. 

Table 3-4: Improved Materials and Products.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Fire barrier materials for mattresses

• Fire retardant additives for materials 

and products

• Fire barrier materials for furniture

• Next generation sustainable fire retardants

and coatings

• Ignition resistant upholstery fabrics

• Padding materials that are both smolder 

resistant and low heat release rate when 

flaming

• bench-scale tests and computational 

methods to predict the flammability 

contribution of furniture component 

materials at real scale
30

3.3.5 Advanced Fire Detection

An analysis of US fire statistics by NFPA shows that about 22 % of civilian deaths occurred in homes with 

smoke alarms present, but that failed to operate, and 43 % of civilian deaths occurred in homes with no 

smoke alarms.42 Nearly 1,000 additional lives could be saved annually if all homes had working smoke 

detectors.

43 About half of the homes without working alarms have units that were installed but did not 

properly operate, often because batteries are missing. Research points to two main reasons for nonworking smoke alarms: missing or dead batteries and intentional power source interruption.44 

Unreliable detection that leads to false alarms due to nuisance sources is thought to be the main 

contributor to this situation. A public/private Fire Safety Council white paper on reducing residential fire 

deaths identified quicker detector response to a range of fires while reducing nuisance alarms as a key 

component.

45 The white paper also stated the need for continued research to improve performance 

measurement of smoke alarms.

Early and reliable alarming has been shown to improve survivability and likely reduce property losses. 

An analysis by Hall indicates that roughly one-half of the deaths and two-thirds of fire-related injuries 

could be prevented if the time to incapacitating exposures was lengthened sufficiently, if alarms were 

successful in waking sleeping victims, and if victims in close proximity to a fire were able to escape.46 

Hall suggests that sufficient extra time alone would likely help reduce about one-quarter of the fatalities 

and injuries. In this regard, highly sensitive and reliable (false alarm free) alarms would have a significant 

beneficial effect on the fire problem. Some enabling technologies are listed in Table 3-5.

There is an additional gain to be derived from nuisance-free fire detection. Fully reliable detection is a 

necessary condition to enable direct transmission of alarm information from a residence to a local fire 

department. The resulting reduction in fire department response time would improve chances of 

survival for victims unable to escape a fire without assistance. It would also reduce property losses.

The technology to detect fire smoke components and airborne, non-fire species has been around for 

decades. Experiments in which multiple fire signatures have been analyzed to explore early and faultfree identification of the presence of a fire have also been accomplished. This work, in concert with flow 

modeling and well controlled experiments, could form the basis for a new generation of fire detectors.

The potential impediments to realizing the benefits of such new capability continue to center around 

the issues of how to get working detectors into the homes that need them most and how to keep them 

working. While public education may be an important approach, there may also be technical solutions 

such as long-life, sealed batteries. 
31

Table 3-5: Detection Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Smoke, heat, CO, hydrocarbon 

detectors, multi-signature 

detection

• Next generation detectors (early, reliable, 

nuisance resistant, video, self-diagnose 

malfunctions)

• Automatic Fire Department notification

3.3.6 Engineered Fire Protection

Engineered fire protection systems constitute a significant component of the cost of installed fire 

protection. Engineered systems utilize three primary means to reduce the threat of fire: containing the 

fire, suppressing the fire, and controlling the heat and smoke. These engineered fire protection features 

are more frequently deployed in commercial and high-value projects, relative to residential 

construction. 

3.3.6.1 Enhanced Compartmentalization

Fire- and smoke-rated partitions are an effective means to control the spread of fire and smoke in a 

structure. Therefore, standard test methods are needed to ensure the performance of fire and smoke 

rated doors and partitions. Successful containment requires (a) that the wall, floor, and ceiling assembly 

be designed to resist an appropriate fire load (currently expressed as duration of exposure in minutes or 

hours according to the ASTM E119 standard fire test), (b) that the doors or windows incorporated into 

the assembly also resist the fire load, and (c) that all penetrations of the assembly (pipes or wires, e.g.) 

be completely sealed. 

3.3.6.2 Enhanced Automatic Fire Suppression

The complementary approach to controlling the burning rate is the use of a fire suppression system. A 

variety of suppression technologies currently exist, including wet- and dry-pipe sprinklers (residential 

and commercial), water mist systems, carbon dioxide and other gaseous suppression systems, and foam 

systems (including AFFF). The effectiveness of manual suppression during structural firefighting 

operations is considered below in the Advanced Firefighting Technologies area.

Automatic sprinklers have demonstrably reduced losses in residential fires. Scottsdale, AZ required all 

new residential construction to have sprinkler system protection in 1985/1986. After ten years, a study 

found that fires in homes with residential sprinkler systems were controlled by activation of one or two 

sprinkler heads in over 90 % of the incidents. In homes with sprinklers, the average amount of water 

per fire was 357 gal versus an estimated 4,800 gal from fire service suppression. Further, a study fifteen 

years after the sprinkler requirement found that the average property loss in a residence protected by a 

sprinkler system was about $2,200, compared to $45,000 in homes not protected by residential 

sprinklers.47 Widespread adoption of residential sprinkler has not been achieved; however, the 
32

International Residential Code (IRC) was recently modified to require a residential sprinkler system for 

one and two-family dwellings.48 

While recent code changes to the IRC will improve fire safety in new construction (once the provisions 

are locally adopted and enforced), the majority of residential building stock in this country will not be 

retroactively required to install automatic residential sprinklers. Therefore, novel methods to suppress a

fire during the initial growth phase could have significant impact. These methods may be targeted to 

specific products (cooking / stovetop fire suppression, for example, in the form of a non-plumbed fire 

suppression system) or may be holistic, such as robotic fire suppression which can detect and actively 

move through a residence to deliver suppression water or chemicals. 

3.3.6.3 Control of Heat and Smoke

Most building fire fatalities result from smoke exposure, rather than exposure to heat or trauma. As 

noted in the previous section, reducing the exposure to smoke could prevent roughly one-half of the 

deaths and two-thirds of the injuries. Roughly 310,000 to 670,000 people per year are exposed to fire 

smoke in reported U.S. home fires.49 Thus, for fires that are not prevented or kept very small, as 

discussed in the previous two sections, management of the fire's combustion products has the potential 

to significantly reduce life loss and injuries. Of key importance is quantifying the role of smoke toxic 

potency in the determination of the performance requirements for building smoke control systems. In 

addition, provisions need to be made for combustibles whose smoke is of unusually high toxic potency.

Design costs for a building’s fire protection features (including smoke control and compartmentalization) 

are a significant component of total constructed fire protection costs. Validated fire models, including 

sub-models and algorithms which efficiently and accurately account for the impact of fire protection 

systems such as smoke control and fire-rated partitions, are a critical tool for the fire protection 

community in order to provide assured fire safety in a timely and cost effective manner. 

Current fire protection design calculations of Available Safe Egress Time (ASET) and the Required Safe 

Egress Time (RSET) either neglect the effects of smoke on the ability to escape and the rate of escape 

progress or include a single point of incapacitation. The incapacitation is typically based on an average 

value of smoke toxic potency, whereas published data indicate at least an order of magnitude spread 

among the lethal and incapacitating smoke toxic potencies of materials commonly used in buildings.50 

This database is quite small and needs to be expanded to include a wider range of construction and 

furnishing materials and products. A validated bench-scale measurement method is needed to generate 

these data. Principles for recognizing materials whose smoke could be of unusual toxic potency could 

reduce expensive research and development costs. 

3.3.7 Advanced Building Sensors

Primarily driven by efforts to reduce energy costs, the leading edge of current-generation commercial 

buildings already incorporate massive amounts of sensor information feeding several “smart systems” 

throughout the building. Occupant sensors in rooms allow for customization of the air conditioning,
33

heating and automated lighting. Smoke detectors are individually addressable with a known location 

within the building which enhances the utility of the fire alarm system. 

Analysis of sensor data is already leading to active signage to guide occupants away from high-hazard 

environments in real-time during building evacuation. Advanced cyber-physical systems will exploit 

existing sensors, analyzing sensor data and integrating the information, allowing automated 

containment or suppression of the fire by opening / closing dampers or doors, activating suppression 

systems to pre-wet combustibles in areas ahead of the fire spread, or minimizing the risk to evacuees by 

optimizing the load of people on various exit components and steering them away from hazardous 

areas, including firefighting operations. Existing and emerging engineered fire protection technologies 

are summarized in Table 3-6 and discussed more fully in Chapter 4. 

Table 3-6: Engineered Fire Protection Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Automatic sprinklers

• Water mist systems

• Appliance-based suppression systems

• Improved standard test method for 

fire- and smoke-rated partitions

• Building sensor system which integrates 

sensor information to automate fire 

protection systems

• Non-plumbed fire suppression systems

• Robotic fire suppression systems

• Security systems

3.3.8 Improved Egress 

Hall indicates that one-fourth of fire victims perish during evacuation,46 which suggests that as many as 

700 persons could be saved by egress design improvements. However, making significant 

improvements in evacuation time in single-family residences through design changes (with the possible 

exception of requiring a second means of escape from basements and upper stories) would not address 

the root causes51 of residential fire deaths and injuries. Further, improvements in signage, markings, 

stair width, and emergency lighting would not be likely to save many lives in residences where 

occupants tend to be familiar with the egress routes and where occupant crowding along those routes is 

not significant. Residential fire fatalities would be better addressed by reducing the number of fires and 

the resulting fire growth and spread, and by advances in detection to provide very early and reliable 

warning. Existing and emerging/future technologies to enable performance-based design are listed in 

Table 3-7.

Egress design technologies could impact the life loss in the first two classes of buildings. Improvements 

in signage, markings, and lighting led to great reductions in egress time from One World Trade Center on 

September 11, 2001 compared to the 1993 bombing and subsequent evacuation of the same building. 

On September 11, 2001, self-evacuation and the use of elevators in World Trade Center Building Two 

(before it was struck by an airplane) led to several thousand saved lives.52 Advanced egress design can 
34

also mitigate the growing costs of fire protection features in building construction, which are now 

approximately $10 billion annually. A key technology for enhanced egress capability is an elevator that 

can, in the event of a fire, be used by occupants to escape. This is especially valuable for people with 

conditions that make egress more difficult, a group which was estimated as 6 % of the occupants of the 

World Trade Center towers.52 The elevators would need to know the locations of fire-threatened areas, 

information that would be obtained by connection to the building information system. Once elevator 

usage during emergencies is determined to be reliable and effective, some fraction of the existing 

stairwells might be eliminated, reducing up-front costs, maintenance costs, and allowing a greater 

percentage of the floor area to be used as tenant space. The vehicle for realizing these economies in 

engineered buildings is performance-based design as discussed below. Tools to accurately predict the 

evacuation time of building occupants are needed to assess the effectiveness of egress-enhancing costeffective building improvements. While many evacuation models exist, little data is available to validate 

the predictive capabilities of these models.

Effective management of an emergency situation, including the ability to deliver evacuation information 

to occupants and responders in a timely manner, is an important aspect of building evacuation. 

Emergency management has two primary stakeholders in leadership positions: personnel working in the 

building who may have part-time or full-time emergency responsibilities and personnel who respond to 

an incident from outside the building (such as the fire department). Either or both emergency 

management groups may use mass notification devices (public address systems, mass email or cellular 

announcements, radio or television statements, or other technologies). While mass notification 

technologies are proliferating among buildings and organizations (such as universities) engaged in 

emergency preparedness planning, the technology lacks performance standards and there is little 

guidance available for users about how, what, and to whom emergency information should be directed. 

The absence of performance standards may lead to inefficient spending on emergency preparedness 

and the absence of message content guidelines may lead to ineffective (or harmful) messages. 

While it is recognized that improved situational awareness by incident wardens and managers, and 

improved real-time communication with building occupants and first responders, would certainly be 

useful, the value of possible incremental life safety gains associated with implementation of particular 

technologies may be difficult to assess. 
35

Table 3-7: Technologies for Improved Building Egress.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Stairs

• Occupant-use and firefighter-use 

elevators

• Improved signage

• Emergency lighting

• Active signage for improved way-finding

• Mass notification technologies

• Reliable egress prediction technologies

3.3.9 Structural Fire Resistance

During the years from 1970 to 2002, a total of 22 fire-induced tall building collapses occurred worldwide. Although this number may appear low, these fire events are of high consequence with respect to 

economic costs and potential life safety losses, including collapses at the New York World Trade Center, 

One New York Plaza, Boston Venodome Hotel, and Sao Paulo’s CESP 2 building.

53 In addition, a number 

of burning buildings of all types have suffered collapsed roofs, walls, and floors. These have resulted in 

significant injuries and deaths, especially for firefighters, as well as significant business interruption. 

Between the years 1979 and 2002, there were over 180 firefighter fatalities due to structural collapse, 

not including those firefighters lost in 2001 in the collapse of the World Trade Center.54 There is a lack 

of validated engineering-based computational tools to predict fire growth and spread, and the 

performance of large-scale structural connections, components, subassemblies, and systems under 

realistic fire and structural load.

28, 55

Tools are needed to serve the design community that would assure full building burn-out without 

collapse (partial* or total), to predict building performance from small-scale tests, and to enable the use 

of innovative materials or designs. Standard test methods are needed to evaluate fire resistance of 

structural components, connections, assemblies, and systems at elevated temperatures for improved 

fire resistance design and retrofit of buildings. Finally, validated predictive tools are needed to help 

designers understand the trade-offs between active fire and passive fire protection performance, and to 

help community planners understand issues associated with resilience in the context of multi-hazards, 

both natural and man-made.

†

 NIST’s National Fire Research Laboratory scheduled to open in late 2012 

will provide advanced capabilities to test the performance of real-scale structures under realistic fire and 

structural loading, and will enable the development of the next generation of performance-based 

standards for fire resistance design of structures. Existing and emerging engineered fire protection 

technologies are summarized in Table 3-8 and discussed more fully in Chapter 4. 

 

* Including fire fighter safety during response to a fire in wood frame construction.

† Including, for example, post-earthquake fires or a terrorist incident. 
36

Table 3-8: Technologies for Improved Structural Fire Resistance.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• test methods (e.g., E119) to ensure 

structural fire resistance of building 

elements;

• computational tools of structural 

response to mechanical loads.

• full-scale experimental methods to 

determine the response of structural 

members to full building burn-out;

• next generation computational tools to 

predict building performance from smallscale tests;

• validated tools to predict the performance 

of large-scale structural connections, 

components, subassemblies, and systems 

under realistic fire and mechanical loading;

• innovative use of materials and engineering 

design to improve building fire 

performance;

• test methods that enable performance 

based design of buildings.

3.3.10 Performance Based Design 

Engineering or performance based design (PBD) utilizes all of the approaches mentioned above and is 

important for the development of appropriate structures, communities, products, and technologies. For 

buildings, design approaches can be either prescriptive or performance based. Prescriptive code 

changes can be thought of as inflexible solutions to building design. To develop improvements for a 

prescriptive code, a long series of steps must be taken including doing the science, writing the code, 

integrating the code, testing the code, documenting the code, getting the code used, and checking the 

effects of a revised code. PBD methods provide a framework for increased design flexibility and 

implementation of novel technologies. Both of these can promote the incorporation of building 

features that limit fire hazard while controlling construction cost. As most fire safety requirements 

currently are prescriptive, rather than performance-based, the $1.2 trillion in annual construction and 

building costs* may be inflated as suggested by the Australian Building Codes Board, which estimated 

that reliance on prescriptive codes rather than performance-based codes inflates construction costs by 

more than 0.5 %.

56

While infrequently used compared to the prescriptive codes, the International Code Council (ICC) has 

published a performance-based alternative (International Performance Code),57 NFPA has included a

performance-based option in the Life Safety Code,

58 and the Society of Fire Protection Engineers has 

 

* Construction statistics for 2006 are from the U.S. Census Bureau website: www.census.gov/mcd/
37

published engineering design guides to facilitate implementation and best practices in the use of 

performance-based fire protection techniques.59 Performance-based design of buildings requires 

verified and validated tools to justify equivalent safety when compared to prescriptive code 

requirements. Without the necessary tools to develop and quantify the effectiveness and cost of 

possible design options, architects and engineers are constrained from realizing efficient solutions. 

Examples of applications of PBD principles include assessment of low-probability, high-consequence 

building threat (for which prescriptive solutions do not generally exist) or highly unusual designs (such as 

extreme high-rise buildings which exceed the assumptions implicit in the prescriptive codes). Currently, 

however, PBD methods are used only in a small minority of building designs due to several technical and 

administrative roadblocks. NIST measurement science can help overcome present barriers to the full 

implementation of PBD methods. 

Computational fire modeling methods to predict the growth and spread of fire and smoke are quite 

advanced. However, numerous technical challenges remain in order to ensure accurate predictions 

which run on affordable systems in a reasonable period of time. Alternatives for a building design 

should deliver a level of occupant life safety performance equivalent to or better than the level which 

would otherwise be required by the prescriptive code. Work to define this equivalence is just beginning.

During a fire in a building, the interaction between the combustion of the interior finishes, furnishings,

and the installed fire protection systems primarily determines the resultant tenability of a specific space. 

The metric for determining the time to untenable conditions is typically determined by calculation of a 

fractional effective dose (FED).60,61 Measurement science is needed to reduce the significant level of 

uncertainty in the calculation of both sub-lethal and incapacitating toxic exposure, along with benchscale methods to identify toxic potency of materials included in buildings (furnishings and building 

components). 

The technology to predict the impact of active fire protection systems on fire growth requires the 

development of (a) a fundamental understanding of the extinction mechanisms of various suppression 

agents (water, gas, or foam, for example), (b) computational techniques to predict suppression 

effectiveness, and (c) computational techniques to predict the changes in smoke and gas species 

produced by the fire after suppression has initiated. 

The key to understanding the uncertainty of predictions from software tools is comprehensive 

procedures for verification (standard testing of the tools to insure calculations are being done as 

intended) and validation (defining the accuracy of the calculations by comparison with other validated 

tools or more commonly experimental data). While considerable validation efforts have been 

performed,62 these efforts have focused on only a small fraction of the predictive ranges of the models 

largely due to a lack of real-scale experimental data for important physical phenomena. The lack of a

quantitative understanding of uncertainty and system performance precludes the development of 

rational safety factors in fire protection engineering analysis and design. Through uncertainty analysis,63

the most significant components of uncertainty can be identified.64 Once the principal components are 

identified, measurement science can be applied to systematically reduce the combined uncertainty. 
38

Reducing the combined uncertainty in hazard and risk analyses will improve reliability of outcomes for 

engineered systems and enhance confidence that the performance-based design will function as 

intended. Existing and emerging/future technologies to enable performance-based design are listed in 

Table 3-9.

Table 3-9: Technologies to Enable Performance Based Design.

65

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• integrate stochastic model inputs 

and outputs for risk-informed 

computational analyses; 

• predict the impact of active fire protection 

systems on fire growth; 

• software tools that include stochastic methods 

and uncertainty for hazard and risk analyses; 

• software tools to predict the relationship 

between building design and people 

movement;

• software tools to predict the effect of fire 

effluent on people movement and behavior; 

• bench-scale tests and computational methods 

to predict the impact of material and geometry

changes of interior furnishings on fire growth;

• computational models of fire spread and 

growth; 

• predict the effect of combustion products on 

building occupants.

3.3.11 Post-Fire Incident Analysis

Post-fire incident analysis may involve one or all of three types of analysis as described in Table 3-10: 

brief incident overview, a criminal or civil dispute investigation, or a generalizable study to determine 

root cause. NIST does not work on Type II investigations involving matters of civil or criminal 

proceedings directly, yet measurement science may have direct benefits to law enforcement or other 

investigative agencies. Measurement science needs for Type I and Type III post-fire investigations are 

described below.

3.3.11.1 Aggregate Incident Data to Track the Fire Problem 

The U.S. fire service is generally tasked with conducting type I investigations. This allows analysis of 

national fire trends, which informs efforts to attack the national fire problem. NFIRS data is reported to 

the U.S. Fire Administration, while subsequent analysis is performed yearly by USFA, as well as third 

parties such as NFPA. Advancements in measurement science are needed to accurately measure, 

characterize the uncertainty, and track the U.S. fire problem. Currently, measures of uncertainty
39

surrounding the national fire statistics are limited. Without improved accuracy and estimates of the 

uncertainty and its variation with time, it is difficult to assess year-to-year variations (e.g., trends) in key 

fire statistics, and to evaluate the impact new technologies or fire mitigation strategies have on fire 

losses, injuries, and fatalities.

Table 3-10: Types of Post-fire Investigations.

Type of Post-Fire Incident Study Purpose of Study

I A brief incident overview using a standardized 

reporting system such as the National Fire 

Incident Reporting System (NFIRS)

Aggregate the reporting of many fire 

incidents to support generalization and trend 

identification

II A more detailed criminal or civil dispute

investigation to determine incident-specific root 

causes

Support of civil or criminal justice 

proceedings

III An analysis of the incident to determine root 

causes

Promote the implementation of 

recommendations from disaster studies for 

improvements to codes, standards, and 

practices, and fill gaps in current knowledge 

about buildings, infrastructure, emergency 

response, and human behavior. 

3.3.11.2 Incident Analysis and Fire Forensics

NIST has statutory authority to conduct post-fire analysis and studies, which focus on type III outcomes

(see Table 3-10).

* Those organizations with law enforcement objectives, like ATF, are involved with 

type II activities. Post-fire studies help understand and quantify the technical reasons for the incident

and any issues associated with evacuation and emergency response procedures. While the primary 

 

* Congress has conferred authority for NIST to conduct post-fire studies through the Fire Prevention and Control 

Act (1974) and the National Construction Safety Team Act (2002). Over the years, NBS and NIST have been 

involved in many post-fire studies, including the DuPont Plaza Hotel, San Juan, PR (1986); First Interstate Bank 

Building, Los Angeles, CA (1988); Loma Prieta Earthquake, CA (1989); Hillhaven Nursing Home (1989); Pulaski 

Building, Washington, D.C. (1990); Happyland Social Club, Bronx, NY (1990); Oakland Hills, CA (1991); Hokkaido, 

Japan (1993); Watts St, New York City (1994); Northridge Earthquake, CA (1994); Kobe, Japan (1995); Vandaila St, 

New York City (1998); Cherry Road, Washington, D.C. (1999); Keokuk, IA (1999); Houston, TX (2000); Phoenix, AZ 

(2001); World Trade Center Towers and Building 7 (2001); Cook County Administration Building Fire (2003); The 

Station Nightclub, RI (2003); Charleston, S.C., Sofa Superstore Fire (2007); Witch and Guejito Fires, CA (2007); 

Amarillo WUI fires, TX (2010).
40

objective of a post-incident study is to identify technical factors which contributed to significant loss of 

life or property, advancement of the measurement science of post-fire incident studies is often needed. 

The investigation of the collapse of the World Trade Center towers, for example, required innovative 

techniques to model the interaction between the thermal environment and the structural response. The 

National Research Council has amplified the need for additional measurement science by calling for a 

fundamental strengthening of the underlying principles and methods for forensic science, including “fire 

and explosive analysis.” 66 In the event of a fire or fire-induced structural event, a post-incident study

can inform building codes and standards, and engineering best practices to avert future losses. 

Historically, fire investigations have resulted in profound changes in fire safety in the United States. 

Significant loss of life or property due to fire is generally followed by one or more formal investigations 

to identify root causes and contributory factors, along with a list of potential solutions to ensure that the 

magnitude of loss will not reoccur. These solutions are often reflected in changes to state laws, national 

model codes, fire safety practices, consensus standards, or other appropriate regulatory documents. 

Deriving lessons learned from fire disasters enables improved engineering design and retrofit and 

recommended changes to practices, standards, and codes to reduce the potential for similar incidents in 

the future. A comprehensive approach to this would include development of improved data collection, 

analysis and archiving systems as well as creation of a national resource database to store and broadly 

disseminate findings from studies of fire incidents. The development of improved methods and 

technologies including validated computational fire, structure, and people movement models, 

eyewitness or survivor interview methods, material testing apparatus, and evidence collection and 

preservation techniques will improve fire investigation practice.

3.3.12 Summary

To reduce the nation's fire problem, measurement science must be applied to reduce the risk of fire 

hazards in buildings. Research is needed to enable the groups of key technologies to impact the fire 

problem. Using the framework of the NFPA Fire Safety Concepts Tree, the objective of this chapter was 

to examine the many potential mechanisms for mitigating the national fire burden. Technologies listed 

in Tables 3-1 to 3-10 with significant potential to contribute to this effort are highlighted in Table 3-11

and include both existing and emerging technologies. While Table 3-11 lists many technologies, some 

are more likely than others to have significant impact, therefore, a prioritized research investment will 

be necessary to maximize the impact of limited resources. The priorities, which are presented in the 

beginning of Chapter 4, emphasize two key areas:

• Mitigate residential fire losses through the reduction of upholstered furniture and foam

flammability and early and reliable smoke alarms, and

• Enable performance-based design through validated computer fire and evacuation predictions, 

product toxicity assessment, and fire-resistant structural design.
41

Table 3-11: Summary of Technologies to Reduce the Risk of Fire Hazard in Buildings.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Smoke, heat, CO detectors

• Barrier materials for 

mattresses

• Fire retardant additives

• Automatic sprinklers

• Water mist systems

• Reduced ignition propensity

cigarettes

• Occupant-use elevators for 

evacuation during fire

• Arc-fault circuit interrupters

• Integrated stochastic model 

inputs and outputs for riskinformed computational 

analyses

• Next generation detectors (early, reliable, 

nuisance resistant, video, self-diagnose 

malfunctions)

• Automatic fire department notification

• Fire barrier materials for soft furnishings

• Ignition resistant upholstery fabrics

• Second-generation low ignition propensity 

cigarettes

• Non-plumbed fire suppression systems

• Robotic fire suppression systems

• Next generation sustainable fire retardants

• Self-regulating cooking units

• Next generation self-monitoring space heaters

• Advanced materials

• Prediction of the impact of active fire protection 

systems on fire growth

• Software tools that include stochastic methods 

and uncertainty for hazard and risk analyses

• Software tools to predict the relationship 

between building design and movement and 

behavior of building occupants

• Software tools to predict the effect of fire 

effluent on movement and behavior of 

occupants

• Bench-scale tests and computational methods to 

predict the impact of material and geometry 

changes of interior furnishings on fire growth

• Full-scale and computational methods to 

determine the response of structural members 

to full building burn-out

• Computational models to predict the growth

and spread of fire and smoke

• Software tools to predict the effect of 

combustion products on building occupants

combustion products on building occupants
42

3.4 STRATEGIC FOCUS AREA: ADVANCED FIRE SERVICE TECHNOLOGIES

3.4.1 Objective

This strategic area is focused on improving the safety and effectiveness of emergency response to fires 

by enabling the development of improved protective equipment, situational awareness, and sciencebased tactics and training tools for the fire service. In recent history, firefighter safety has been 

characterized by the nearly 100 on-duty deaths and 100,000 on-duty injuries suffered annually. These 

numbers are affected not only by the quality and condition of the firefighters, their training, their 

equipment, and their fireground procedures, but also by the number and nature of the fires they attend. 

The long-term objective of this focus area is to develop the measurement science needed to enable a 

decrease of one-quarter of the preventable burden associated with the fire service within a generation.

*

 

The reduction in the burden of the fire service on society is characterized in the long-term by metrics 

related to the safety of firefighters (injuries and fatalities), the cost-effectiveness of the fire service, and 

fire service operational effectiveness associated with reduction of preventable life and property fire 

losses. Short-term metrics for this strategic focus area are described in detail in Chapters 4 and 5. 

While firefighter safety is naturally characterized by deaths and injuries, firefighter effectiveness is more 

complex. Firefighter safety is linked to firefighter effectiveness, as improved technologies, tactics, and 

strategies are used by firefighters, it would be expected that firefighter safety should improve. The 

primary metrics for evaluating programmatic progress and prioritizing research investments in 

firefighter safety and effectiveness research are published annual estimates† of firefighter injuries and 

deaths and property loss due to fire. While these metrics are subject to fluctuations due to macro-scale 

factors beyond the scope of our programs such as the national and local economy, building 

maintenance, or terrorist attacks, these metrics ensure that the research program is focused on 

achieving real-world impacts.

3.4.2 Fire Safety Framework

While the majority of firefighter (and civilian) injuries and fatalities occur in residential buildings, a 

significant number of firefighter deaths and injuries occur in commercial buildings. It is useful to

examine the cause and nature of firefighter deaths and injuries when considering approaches toward 

improving firefighter safety and effectiveness. In Table 3-12, firefighter deaths that occurred in 2006 are 

presented by cause, nature of fatal injury, and by type of duty.67 More recent numbers from 2008 show 

a similar distribution of cause of death.68 There were 106 reported on-duty deaths in 2006 and a 

majority were attributed to stress and overexertion, which includes all deaths that are cardiac or 

 

* Appendix B provides a detailed accounting of the preventable fire burden and how the objective can be realized.

† Several agencies or institutions produce annual estimates of firefighter injuries and deaths, including the U.S. Fire 

Administration, the National Fire Protection Association, the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, 

and the National Fallen Firefighter Foundation. Annual property loss estimates are produced by the U.S. Fire 

Administration and the National Fire Protection Association.
43

cerebrovascular (stroke) in nature. The Caught or Trapped category refers to firefighters that were 

unable to escape rapid fire progression and were overcome by flames, heat, smoke, toxic gases, or were 

drowned or crushed. For the Type of Duty category, the “Other On-Duty” grouping refers to deaths 

resulting from activities that were not associated with the response to any particular emergency.

* 

While the number of fires are decreasing with time (see Table 2-2), the trends in the line of duty deaths 

are rather irregular.69,†

 

Table 3-12: Examination of On-Duty Firefighter Deaths in 2006.

Cause of

Death

Percentage Nature of 

Fatality

Percentage Type of Duty Percentage

Stress/Overexertion 51 Heart Attack 47 Fire ground 

Operations

34

Vehicle Collision 18 Internal 

Trauma

23 Other On-Duty 20

Caught/Trapped 12 Asphyxiation 11 Responding/Returning 14

Collapse 7 Burns 7 Training 8

Struck By Object 6 Crushed 5 Non-fire Emergencies 5

Lost 3 Stroke 4 After an Incident 19

Contact/Exposure 2 Electrocution 1

Other 1 Other 2

As shown in Table 3-12 and Table 3-13, NFPA categorizes injuries and fatalities by the type of duty, such 

as responding to or returning from an alarm, and the nature of an injury, such as burns or cardiac death. 

The nature of firefighter injuries is captured in Table 3-13. These statistics for Type of Duty Injuries are 

not well aligned with the Type of Duty Deaths (Table 3-12),

70 except for the top two most prevalent 

categories. There were a total of 83,400 reported on-duty injuries in 2006. Strains, sprains, and 

muscular pain were the most frequently reported injury category for every type of duty. Wounds were 

also a significant fraction of the injuries. 

The problems facing the fire service are addressed here in terms of firefighter safety and effectiveness 

by enabling effective use of existing and new technologies, tactics, and strategies. Stakeholders that 

 

* For example, nine firefighters suffered heart attacks that were not attributed to training or incident response 

activities.

† While the number of fatalities in 2010 was 72, in 2008 there were 105 line of duty fatalities.
44

specialize in other aspects of fire service safety and effectiveness, such as human physiology and 

physical conditioning, are better suited to address those areas. 

Table 3-13: Firefighter Injuries by Nature of Injury and Type of Duty in 2006.

Nature of Injury Responding 

/ Returning

% / Number

Fireground

% / Number

Non-Fire

% / Number

Training

% / Number

Other

% / Number

Total

% / Number

Burns (Fire or 

Chemical

3.3 / 155 6.9 / 3070 0.8 / 100 3.2 / 245 1.3 / 180 4.5 / 3750

Smoke or Gas 

Inhalation

2.3 / 110 5.6 / 2475 0.9 / 120 0.5 / 40 0.6 / 80 3.4 / 2825

Other 

Respiratory 

Distress

0.8 / 40 2.9 / 1280 1.0 / 125 0.8 / 60 0.9 / 120 2.0 / 1625

Burns/Smoke 

Inhalation

0.8 / 40 1.3 / 575 0.1 / 10 0.4 / 30 0.6 / 75 0.9 / 730

Wound, cut, 

Bleeding, Bruise

18.9 / 895 17.3 / 7640 16.4 / 2140 17.9 / 1375 18.8 / 2575 17.5 / 14625

Dislocation, 

Fracture

3.7 / 175 2.4 / 1065 1.6 / 210 3.9 / 300 3.0 / 410 2.6 / 2160

Heart Attack/ 

Stroke

0.7 / 35 0.8 / 350 1.2 / 155 1.3 / 100 2.6 / 360 1.2 / 1000

Strain, Sprain, 

Muscular Pain

55.9 / 2650 46.7 / 20655 60.0 / 7855 62.1 / 4760 51.0 / 6975 51.4 / 42895

Thermal Stress 

(frostbite, heat)

5.0/235 5.1 / 2280 1.5 / 190 2.7 / 205 1.4 / 190 3.7 / 3100

Other 8.6 / 410 10.9 / 4820 16.7 / 2185 7.2 / 550 19.9 / 2725 12.8 / 10690

Totals 4745 44210 13090 7665 13690 83400

Finally, there is a synergistic effect between firefighter and fire safety engineering research programs. 

Improving the safety and effectiveness of firefighters will lead to a beneficial collateral effect on building 

occupant safety and property loss when firefighters can size-up, search, rescue, and suppress or 
45

extinguish fires more efficiently. Likewise, firefighters can be more effective and operate more safely 

when they are called to fires more quickly and/or confront smaller fires as a result of positive impacts of 

fire safety engineering research.

While there are many approaches to address fire safety and effectiveness, a matrix was chosen that 

captures the natural progression of a fire incident (before, during, and after), as well as an increasing 

scale and level of complexity in the fire service operational approaches (firefighter, fire department, 

community). Figure 3-2 represents this matrix and illustrates the relationship in the overlapping 

approaches considered here. 

Improvements in firefighter training, health, and conditioning, both from the perspective of the 

individual firefighter and the policies of the fire department, along with community education programs, 

contribute to the preparedness of the fire service and the community for emergency events. Enhanced 

training would prepare firefighters to deal with hazards in a cost effective way, helping to increase 

operational effectiveness and reduce the risk of injury. Educating the public about basic fire safety 

principles and actions can mitigate the number and magnitude of fires, as well as minimize the 

consequences. 

Prior to an incident, appropriate resources should be made available to respond to emergency events. 

Cost effective resource decisions require detailed information on the cost/benefit profile of possible 

resource investments, including number and location of fire stations, number, type, and location of fire 

apparatus, firefighter staffing levels, and pre-planned alarm assignments.*

 Resource allocation may also 

address community infrastructure such as fire hydrants and building inspections. Situational awareness 

may also be developed by effective fire department pre-planning for the incident location. 

Due to the operational challenges occurring during a fire incident, many avenues are possible for 

improving firefighter safety and effectiveness. For the firefighter, improved personal protective 

equipment and knowledge of the fire environment (situational awareness) allow firefighters to make 

informed decisions about how to safely perform tasks. The type, number of resources available and 

deployed to the event, along with the arrival time of the resources will influence the safety and 

effectiveness of the firefighters. Operational and tactical decisions made by the Incident Commander 

(IC) may be improved by innovative technology and/or better use of existing decision-making 

technology. 

All aspects of firefighter safety and effectiveness can be evaluated during the post-incident timeframe. 

This is often achieved through incident investigations. Better understanding of the fire conditions to 

 

* A pre-planned alarm assignment is the standard number of apparatus and personnel deployed to an incident. 

For example, a working residential structure fire may have an initial alarm assignment of 20 firefighters, arriving in 

three fire engines, one fire truck, one battalion chief, and one ambulance. These assignments may vary by 

jurisdiction, though the NFPA 1710 standard provides minimum assignment levels.
46

which firefighters and structures are exposed during an incident and during overhaul could lead to 

improved training, situational awareness equipment, tactics, incident command, or resource allocation.

Figure 3-2: Approaches to enable advanced firefighting technologies. 

Training Education

PreIncident Incident

Firefighter Fire 

Departmen

Community

Equipment

PostIncident

Lessons Learned

Incident 

Command

Situational 

Awareness

Tactics

Resource 

Allocation
47

Improvements in the flow and accessibility of information about the detailed impact of fire incidents can 

be used to shape the future of the fire service and the communities they serve. This information may

include examination of certain fire conditions that were tracked over time, fire origin and cause, the 

interactions between or effectiveness of various tactics and/or strategies used, knowledge of potential 

hazards encountered in the cleanup process, etc.

Each of the approaches broadly outlined above make use of supporting technologies that factor 

prominently in their successful implementation. These technologies may be unique to a particular 

approach or they may have application across several approaches, varying in either scope or nuance. An 

overview of the technologies and the required measurement science is provided below and has been 

grouped in a manner that highlights the relationship between approaches.

3.4.3 Training and Education 

A better understanding of operational procedures, fire dynamics and the influence of ventilation, 

suppression, and other tactical operations will lead to safer and more effective firefighters. The types of 

technologies that facilitate the training and education of firefighters, fire officers, and communities 

range from relatively simple reports of experimental results to highly complex interactive models of 

virtual fire environments.

There are two main categories that address the physical well-being of firefighters: technologies and fire 

department training and education policies that support improved firefighter health, fitness, and injury 

prevention; and technologies that enable monitoring of firefighter biometrics during and after incident 

response. Emerging cyber physical systems will combine sensors with computational resources to track 

fire ground conditions and warn fire fighters of hazardous exposures. Since cardiac arrest accounts for 

about half of firefighter line-of-duty deaths, technologies that provide insight into the risk factors for 

heart health are of particular importance.*

Similar to firefighter training and education, technologies that support the education and fire safety 

awareness of civilians may be cost-effective prevention measures. Community scale fire prevention 

programs have not been rigorously evaluated for cost / benefits. Technologies to improve fire service 

education, training, health, conditioning, and community education are summarized in Table 3-14.

 

* On-going work at DHS and NIOSH are addressing this issue.
48

Table 3-14: Summary of Training and Education Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Theatrical virtual trainers

• Classroom training

• Tabletop exercises

• Hands-on training (including fire academy 

burn buildings or flashover simulators)

• Driving simulators

• Training & education materials (CDs, DVDs, 

literature)

• Health and fitness programs, including 

education materials 

• Community education programs, such as 

Learn Not to Burn

• Physics-based virtual training tools

• Advanced fire reconstruction

• Biometric monitors and guidelines for use

• Environmental sensors linked to exposure 

warning systems

• Health screening tests for risk factors

• Prevention programs targeted to high-risk 

populations

3.4.4 Strategic Resource Utilization

The Incident Command (IC) at an emergency event must make strategic decisions immediately upon 

arrival at the scene and would benefit from access to crucial information about the event en route. The 

strategies employed depend on the particular characteristics of the incident and resource availability. In 

cases in which prior knowledge is unavailable or unreliable, technologies that permit quick, efficient 

evaluation (size-up) of the situation would be of great utility. Emerging cyber physical systems will 

combine personnel and equipment tracking sensors with computational resources to track fire ground 

resources and enable intelligent deployment of fire apparatus and fire fighters. 

On a community scale, GIS-based technologies would provide information that would enable the fire 

service to optimize the use of personnel, apparatus, and fire stations, and to maintain an acceptable 

level of coverage for the areas they serve. These and other types of technologies may work across many 

boundaries, for example in coordinating traffic signals such that the most direct route from the 

responding fire station(s) to the emergency scene is readily available or may be used to identify closest 

responding units based upon actual apparatus location rather than station locations. Existing and 

emerging technologies to improve strategic resource utilization, incident command and resource 

allocation are shown in Table 3-15.
49

Table 3-15: Summary of Strategic Resource Utilization Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• GIS-based station location/resource coverage 

models

• National Incident Command Structure

• Traffic signal routing

• Real-time apparatus location / tracking

• Science-based guidelines and risk analysis 

tools for crew size and station location 

relative to the location and frequency of 

hazards in the community

• Wireless building/contents, access points, 

staging areas, and hydrant locations 

available to IC

• Pre-planning/crew size guidelines and 

decision tools

3.4.5 Situational Awareness 

Situational awareness is key to the safety and effectiveness of firefighters and is closely tied to training, 

tactics, and communication. Prior knowledge of critical incident site information through departmentlevel pre-planning of the structure layout, contents (occupants, chemicals or other unusual fire hazards, 

construction materials), access points, water availability, adjacent structures, and suppression options 

would contribute to the quality of firefighting operations, which could be enhanced by new or improved 

technology. Emerging cyber-physical technologies that enable a firefighter to quickly monitor and 

analyze fire conditions will inform his/her tactical decisions. The ability of new cyber-physical systems to 

communicate fire conditions, the location of emergency responders, and changing egress routes would 

improve operational safety and effectiveness. Improving communication for the fire service has 

numerous avenues and levels of complexity. Firefighters working inside and/or outside one or more 

burning structures need to communicate among themselves as well as with their IC, who is typically 

located beyond the event epicenter. Firefighter PPE may interfere with effective communication as 

hoods, helmets and respirators make it difficult for firefighters to clearly hear. Depending on the 

severity of an event, the IC may need to communicate with other emergency responders, including the 

police, emergency medical personnel, and possibly other local, state, and federal responders. In these 

cases, the communication technology must allow multiple parties to speak within an established 

hierarchy. When communication is needed with other organizations, the communication technologies 

must be compatible and the command structure adequate to affect timely, appropriate, and 

coordinated actions. Transmitted signals are extremely dependent on both the physical and 

electromagnetic conditions at the site. The construction materials, size, and relative location of 

structures play an important role in determining which communication technology will perform well. 

Likewise, the presence of electrical machinery and other transmitters may interfere with emergency 

communications. In most cases, the particular electromagnetic environment of an emergency site is not 

known prior to an incident, therefore, the communication technology employed must be adaptable to 

provide reliable performance.
50

One of the most important technologies supporting situational awareness is firefighter location and 

tracking systems, which are beginning to become commercially available. There are many different 

types of location and tracking systems, some of which stand alone and some that use combinations of 

technologies to increase reliability in challenging environments. As with any technology that depends 

on transmitted signals, the operational environment has a strong influence on signal quality. Standard 

test methods and benchmarks are needed to ensure that tracking is of acceptable accuracy. 

Monitors, sensors, and controls for fire detection, suppression, and strategic and tactical decisionmaking may be integrated into the design of new buildings, worn by the firefighter, or, in the case of 

robots, sent into the burning structure to monitor the fire environment. Advanced sensing technologies 

capable of artificial intelligence may automatically respond to harmful conditions and send information 

directly to the fire department. The information collected by these devices may potentially be 

processed in near real-time to provide insight into the stability of the structure and the risk of 

performing certain tasks, and to provide an evacuation alarm. 

While training on fire dynamics is effective in teaching firefighters about how a fire spreads, there are 

situations in which conditions deteriorate unexpectedly for reasons that may not be readily apparent 

without advanced sensing technology. Technologies to improve situational awareness, communication, 

and sensors are summarized in Table 3-16. 

Table 3-16: Summary of Situational Awareness Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Building sensors (flux, gases, temperature, 

smoke)

• Digital & analog communication devices, 

including ultra-wide band, cell phones, and 

other advanced devices

• Interoperability technology

• Thermal imagers

• Building sensors (fire control, real-time 

fire modeling and forecasting, wireless 

information to IC)

• Structural collapse monitors that track 

building integrity and warn fire fighters 

to evacuate

• Body worn sensors (biometrics and fire 

environment monitors)

• Personnel locator and tracking systems

• Flashover predictor that track 

conditions, analyze, and alarm when 

pre-flashover conditions occur

• Communication devices that function in 

high rise buildings and under adverse 

conditions
51

3.4.6 Equipment 

The urgency associated with locating and rescuing fire victims, locating and attacking a fire, and 

accounting for the safety of other firefighters requires adequate protection from the harsh environment 

in which firefighters typically operate. Confidence in the performance of personal protective equipment 

(PPE) is therefore of vital importance. Technologies and test methods that measure the performance of 

turnout gear, personal alert safety systems (PASS), and self-contained breathing apparatus (SCBA), 

which are considered “life-critical” personal protective equipment, must be reliable. Ideally, turnout 

gear would allow firefighters to safely operate with ease in fire or hazmat environments. Technologies 

that bring the current state of the art closer to this ideal through improvements in materials and design, 

such as integrated passive/active cooling systems, are sought. Personal Alert Safety Systems (PASS) are 

currently transitioning from independent devices to integration with Self Contained Breathing Apparatus 

(SCBA) and new technology is driving optimization of alarm sounds and PPE heat resistance. Emerging 

cyber-physical systems are desired in the SCBA functionality, for example, integration of formerly 

independent equipment such as PASS devices, wireless crew-to-crew or crew-to-IC communication 

systems, or a heads-up display that includes thermal imaging and provides information on gas and 

surface temperatures and biometrics. In short, embedded intelligence and linked technologies that 

support improvements in functionality, heat resistance, size, shape, and weight of firefighting 

equipment are very important to firefighter safety and effectiveness.

End of service life indicators for PPE and sensors that monitor exposures of both PPE and firefighters to 

harmful conditions will provide useful information for retirement planning and budgeting of new 

equipment. As with personal protective equipment, advances in operational equipment (such as 

apparatus, nozzles, hoses, pumps, ladders, extraction equipment, robotics, cooling stations or kiosks, 

etc...) will require methods to evaluate their usefulness, particularly in cases where a considerable 

investment is necessary. Technologies to improve PPE and operational equipment are listed in

Table 3-17. Finally, buildings may provide equipment critical to fire service success. For example, a fire 

command center may improve situation awareness and fire service access elevators in high-rise 

buildings ensure firefighters are able to rapidly and safely access upper portions of high-rise buildings 

without exerting significant energy carrying equipment up stairwells.*

 

 

* Advanced PPE is needed for special operations including multi-hazard applications such as hazardous materials or possible 

chemical/biological exposure, but this is beyond the scope of this roadmap, which is exclusively focused on fire-related fire 

service activities.
52

Table 3-17: Existing and Emerging Equipment Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Turnout gear

• PASS

• SCBA

• Radios

• Fire equipment: includes nozzles, hoses, 

pumps, ladders, extraction equipment, 

irons, cooling stations, etc...

• Thermal imagers

• End of service life indicators

• Fire apparatus, including fire engines, rescue 

trucks, ambulance, and other specialized 

mobile equipment

• Fire service access elevators

• Advanced/integrated SCBA: includes 

improved materials, design and 

integration of PASS, communication, 

heads-up display, fire and biometric 

monitors, etc...

• Improved equipment characteristics: 

lightweight, thermally durable, and 

robust

• Smart fire fighting equipment 

combining sensors, computational 

resources, and/or communication

• Robust fireground communications 

that work in high challenge RF and 

high-temperature environments

• Robotics for high-risk fire operations

• Remote sensor packages including 

unmanned drones and robots

• Collapse monitors / predictors

• Smart hose deployment/delivery 

systems

• Passive/active cooling turnout gear

• Ergonomic design of equipment and 

apparatus

3.4.7 Tactics 

During an emergency incident firefighters are expected to carry out the strategy of the IC to the best of 

their ability. Given adequate training and equipment, firefighters may engage in tactical operations such 

as search and rescue, fire suppression, hazmat operations, ventilation or compartmentalization, and 

rapid intervention procedures. Tactics may include overhaul (ensuring complete fire extinguishment), 

clean-up of the structure and neighborhood as appropriate, and fire source identification (cause and

origin). Post-incident tactics may include analysis of the lessons learned. Measurement science can 

evaluate the efficacy of different tactics for a range of different fire scenarios. For example, tactics 

during wind-driven fire events may be different than tactics during a fire response in the absence of 

wind. Technologies that support improved tactics may include equipment that allows better and faster 

tactical decisions to be made, such as robotics, and research that provides a better understanding of the 

benefits or consequences of new or existing tactical operations. 
53

Additionally, new tactics may need to be developed as new construction techniques, construction 

materials, environmental regulations, and energy systems are implemented in communities and affect 

buildings (such as photovoltaics), vehicles (hydrogen fuel cells, new battery technologies, etc.), storage 

and transportation systems. The environmental impact of different tactics may change over time as 

well, due to evolving construction and suppression materials and environmental regulations. In cases 

involving mutual aid among fire departments or multiple responses from federal, state, or local 

emergency response organizations, technology is needed to ensure that all parties are capable of 

coordinating tactics during joint operations.

Fire service fire control tactics fall into two general categories: those that relate to the application of a 

suppression agent such as water, gas, or foam, and those that encompass other types of strategies such 

as compartmentalization and control of ventilation. Emerging cyber physical systems will combine 

sensors with computational resources to identify fire location and direct suppression resources, either 

robotic or fire fighter based systems to enable more effective suppression. Table 3-18 lists existing and 

emerging tactics and technologies that support advanced tactics. The table also lists technologies that 

address new fire types and environmental impact. 

Table 3-18: Existing and Emerging Tactics and Technologies that Support Tactics.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Ventilation/compartmentalization 

• Search and rescue 

• Suppression (internal/external hose streams, 

tactics, agents, building systems)

• Hazmat and chemical/biological exposure

• Overhaul

• Rapid intervention procedures

• Fire source identification

• Clean-up/environmental impact

•

• Physics-based advanced tactical decision 

aids

• Post-fire analysis tools (evaluation of tactics, 

lessons learned, fire behavior)

• New suppression agents

• Optimized use of forced and natural 

ventilation

• Alternative/advanced suppression methods

• Remote fire detection and intelligent 

suppression systems

• Deployable sensor packages with 

communication links

3.4.8 Summary 

Applying measurement science to the areas of training and education, resource allocation, situational 

awareness, equipment, and tactics will lead to an increase in the effectiveness and safety of firefighters.

Emerging cyber physical technologies will combine remote sensors with other mechanical systems or 

computational resources to assist future fire fighters in monitoring the fire ground environment, 

maintain communication, and deploy necessary resources in order to improve the effectiveness while 
54

maintaining the safety of fire fighters. Research is needed to enable the groups of key technologies 

(listed in Table 3-18) that can have an impact on the fire problem. While Table 3-18 lists many different 

technologies, some technologies are more likely than others to have significant impact. Therefore, a

prioritized research investment in advanced fire service technologies will be necessary to maximize 

impact with finite resources. The priorities, presented in the beginning of Chapter 4, emphasize several 

key areas. At the conclusion of Chapter 4, additional research needs are discussed and prioritized 

(provided that additional resources become available).

Technologies listed in Tables 3-12 to 3-18 with significant potential to contribute to this effort are 

highlighted in Table 3-19 and include both existing and emerging technologies. While Table 3-18 lists 

many different approaches, some are more likely than others to have significant impact, therefore, a 

prioritized research investment will be necessary to maximize the impact of limited resources. The 

priorities, are presented in the beginning of Chapter 4, and emphasize firefighting equipment and 

tactics. At the conclusion of Chapter 4, additional research needs are discussed, and would be useful 

provided additional resources become available.
55

Table 3-19: Summary of Technologies to Improve the Safety and Effectiveness of Firefighters.

Existing Technologies Emerging/Future Technologies

• Theatrical virtual trainers

• Virtual training tools

• Training & education materials (CDs, DVDs, 

literature)

• Health and fitness education materials 

• Pre-planning/crew size decision tools

• GIS-based station location/resource 

coverage models

• Community outreach programs

• Traffic signal routing

• Building sensors (flux, gases, temperature, 

smoke)

• Digital & analog communication devices, 

including ultra-wide band, cell phones, and 

other advanced devices

• Interoperability technology

• Turnout gear

• PASS

• SCBA

• Fire apparatus: includes nozzles, hoses, 

pumps, ladders, extraction equipment, 

vehicles, cooling stations, etc...

• Thermal imagers

• End of service life indicators

• Interoperability 

• Ventilation/compartmentalization 

• Search and rescue 

• Hose streams (including internal vs external 

attack)

• Suppression (tactics, agents, building 

systems)

• Hazmat 

• Overhaul

• Rapid intervention procedures

• Fire source identification

• Clean-up/environmental impact

• Physics-based virtual training tools

• Computational fire reconstructions

• Biometric monitors and guidelines for use

• Environmental sensors linked to exposure 

warning systems

• Health screening tests for risk factors

• Guidelines and risk analysis tools for crew size 

and station location 

• Wireless building/contents data to IC

• Fuel efficient, multi-use apparatus

• Building sensors (fire control, real-time 

modeling, wireless information to IC)

• Structural collapse monitors that track building 

integrity and warn fire fighters 

• Body worn sensors (biometrics and fire 

environment monitors)

• Flashover predictor that tracks conditions, 

analyzes and alarms

• Personnel locator and tracking systems

• Advanced/integrated SCBA: includes PASS, 

communication, heads-up display, fire and 

biometrics monitors, etc...

• Improved equipment characteristics: 

lightweight, thermal durable, and robust

• Smart fire fighting equipment combining 

sensors, processors, and/or communication

• Robust fireground communications (RF 

challenged and high-temp. environments)

• Robotics for high-risk fire operations

• Smart hose deployment/delivery systems

• Passive/active cooling turnout gear

• Ergonomic design of equipment/apparatus

• Physics-based tactical decision aids

• Smart tactical decision tools based on fireground 

sensor data and computation

• Smart fire detection/ suppression systems

• Deployable sensors with communication links
56

3.5 STRATEGIC FOCUS AREA: REDUCED FIRE RISK IN WILDLAND-URBAN 

INTERFACE (WUI) COMMUNITIES

This strategic area is focused on fire mitigation and the improvement of the fire performance of 

structures and communities in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) through the development of 

engineered fire protection technologies, standard test methods for building materials, risk assessment 

tools and risk mitigation design for use by architects, builders, community decision-makers, 

homeowners, and fire officials. 

3.5.1 Objectives

The long-term objective of this focus area is to develop the measurement science needed to enable a 

decrease of one-half of the preventable burden associated with Wildland-urban interface fires within a 

generation.

* † The reduction in the burden of WUI fires on society is characterized in the long-term by a 

metric related to the fraction of houses at the wildland-urban interface that are ignited by exposure to 

wildland fires. Short-term metrics for this strategic focus area are described in detail in Chapters 4

and 5.

3.5.2 Fire Safety Framework 

Damaging WUI and wildland fires have many negative impacts on society and the built and natural 

environments. This section first provides a general discussion of the WUI problem. This is followed by a 

discussion of specific approaches to reducing the impact of WUI fires. 

The total burden of WUI fires are estimated as about $14 billion annually (see Table A-1 in Appendix A). 

There are few life losses associated with the WUI. The dominant costs are associated with the costs of 

suppression, property loss, and other types of economics losses (e.g., business interruption). Unlike the 

structure fire problem, the WUI fire problem appears to rapidly be getting worse in terms of structures 

lost and acres burned. Using forecast methods, estimates of the WUI fire problem were conducted and 

are shown in Figure A1-1 in Appendix 1. The analysis suggests that the WUI fire burden, if unchecked,

will likely double over the next decade and become a more significant portion of the national fire 

burden. In this respect, slowing the growth of WUI losses over time could be considered a substantial 

achievement.

While there are many approaches to address fire safety and effectiveness, a matrix was chosen that 

juxtaposes the natural progression of a fire incident (the timeline) with increasing level of complexity in 

the fire service operational environment (firefighter, fire department, community). Figure 3-3 

represents this matrix and illustrates the relationship in the overlapping approaches considered here. 

Improvements in firefighter training, health, and conditioning, both from the perspective of the 

 

* Appendix B provides a detailed accounting of the preventable fire burden and how the objective can be realized.

† Outdoor fires are defined as fires that burn beyond the confines of a structure. WUI fires are fires that involve 

fire spread through an intermix of vegetative and structure fuels distributed in a community or on the landscape.
57

individual firefighter and the policies of the fire department, along with community education programs, 

contribute to the preparedness of the fire service and the community for emergency events. Enhanced 

training would prepare firefighters to deal with hazards in a cost effective way, helping to increase 

operational effectiveness and reduce the risk of injury. Ensuring that appropriate resources are 

available to respond to emergency events requires careful allocation of community funds, which can be 

very difficult without detailed information on the cost/benefit profile of resource investments. 

While costs have been high, suppression of wildfires in the U.S. has been effective: about 98 % of 

wildfires on U.S. Forest Service lands are suppressed during initial attack by firefighters.71,72 However, 

the remaining 2 % of escaped wildfires occur in extreme conditions (e.g., high winds, dry fuels). In about 

87 % of large wildfires during 2003 and 2004, protecting private property was a major component of the 

fire suppression effort and represented from 50 % to 95 % of suppression costs.72 Because damaging 

WUI fires (in terms of both property loss and suppression cost) predominantly occur in extreme weather 

and wildland fuel conditions, they result in multiple, extensive, rapidly spreading wildland fires that 

overwhelm the resources of both wildland and structural firefighters.72,73 These conditions present 

extreme challenges for effective fire suppression techniques and the supporting infrastructure (e.g., 

roads and water delivery systems). Some estimate the cost of improving the existing infrastructure to be 

in the hundreds of billions of dollars.*,72 While complete suppression of wildland fires would solve the 

WUI fire problem, it would take a major breakthrough in suppressant technology and/or delivery 

effectiveness to provide anything but an incremental reduction in the WUI fire problem through 

suppression efforts in the wildlands. Measurement science research focused on defensive technologies 

and tactics (including suppression), however, could have value, given that it can be an effective means 

to safeguard property under certain conditions.74

Most civilian deaths and injuries associated with WUI fires in the US occur during evacuation. 

Firefighters are also at risk and suffer injuries keeping evacuation routes clear. The costs associated with 

evacuation (firefighters, police, National Guard) are not well documented, but are significant (for 

example, over 500,000 people in the 2007 California firestorm). Improved predictions of smoke 

obscuration over evacuations routes are needed. 

Reducing the likelihood of structure ignition is the best course of action to reduce the negative impact of 

the WUI problem.75 If WUI communities and homes were designed to withstand WUI fire exposure and 

support efficient evacuation, then the escalating costs of fire suppression and damages to homes and 

 

* For example, the simultaneous use of water by numerous residential sprinkler systems and firefighter’s hose 

applications can result in a drop in municipal water pressure to the point where both measures become

ineffective. Aircraft delivery of fire suppressant to assure sufficient quenching of a large wildfire would require a 

larger fleet of aircraft and a larger supply of nearby suppressant than is generally feasible. In addition, the 

hazardous conditions caused by high winds can preclude the use of air attack.
58

community infrastructure would be significantly reduced. This is consistent with the conclusions reached 

by the Quadrennial Fire Review,76 which promotes the creation of Fire Adapted Communities. 

Guidance is available for WUI homeowners and communities to assess and mitigate their risk of 

structure ignition.77,78,79 This guidance, which is focused on the homeowner’s structure and residential 

vegetation, is limited in a number of ways. First, it is not the result of scientific study or based on 

measured or modeled exposure conditions across a range of WUI fire environments (i.e., wildland fuel 

types, terrain, and weather). Second, it has not been evaluated for effectiveness through post-fire 

analysis. Third, most current practices are designed for structures on large parcels of land (greater than 

1.5 acres), which are, in general, larger than parcels characteristic of the high-loss WUI fire events, such 

as the recent damaging fires in southern California (2007), Texas (2011), and Australia (2011). Finally, 

Prevention

Response 

Fire Protection 

Building 

Components

Structures and 

Parcels

Communities 

and 

Surroundings

Improve WUI Fire Fighter Safety & Effectiveness

Recovery Guidelines and Post Fire Analysis 

Stakeholder Education & Compliance

Fire Resistant Materials Fire Resistant Vegetation

Engineered Fire Resistant Design Guidelines

Evacuation

Recovery

Passive & Active Fire Protection

Figure 3-3: Approaches to reduce the risk of ignition and fire spread in WUI communities.
59

little guidance is available to communities to reduce structure ignition via firebrands, even though 

previous80 and ongoing81 post-fire studies find that firebrands account for over 60 % of structure 

ignitions. 

Research focused on reducing structure ignitions begins with furthering the understanding of the 

mechanisms and conditions leading to structure ignition by a WUI fire.82 This would form the basis for 

improved building materials, construction, risk assessment tools and risk mitigation design (for 

architects, builders, homeowners, communities, and fire and land use officials) leading to reduced 

structure ignitions. These tools would take into account the different implementation opportunities and 

challenges due to existing construction versus new construction. Public education is critical to the 

success of any effort to reduce WUI fire structural ignition, and several organizations are actively 

working this issue.83

In Figure 3.3, approaches to reducing structure ignition, and other negative impacts of WUI fires, are 

categorized according to physical scale (across the figure) and the stage in the evolution of a WUI fire 

event (down the figure). This categorization is used to organize the needs assessment discussion in the 

following sections. The physical scales of interest are, from fine to coarse, denoted by: Building 

Components, Structures and Parcels, and Communities and Surroundings. The stages of WUI fire risk 

reduction are denoted by: Prevention, Fire Protection, Response, and Recovery. This framework was 

developed after input from two workshops on the WUI fire problem, which were held in June 2009.84,85 

Findings from these workshops and other literature72,81,82,86,87 were used to develop the strategy outlines 

in the following sections.

3.5.3 Prevention

From a WUI community and fire official’s point of view, prevention focuses on fire resistant materials 

and vegetation (fuels management), stakeholder education and compliance, and engineered fire 

resistant design. A fundamental component of effective and efficient fuels management practice is 

reliable risk assessment, knowledge and tools applicable to a range of scales, from building components, 

to buildings, to communities. These tools would include mapping of potential fire exposure zones. 

Within a WUI community these zones would be associated with codes for building materials and 

assemblies, residential vegetation choices, and landscaping practices. These all would contribute to 

lowering the likelihood of structure ignition. Continuous maintenance of fuel conditions is essential. 

Some states have wildfire hazard risk maps based on vegetation, terrain, weather, firebrands, historical 

and/or predicted fire behavior (e.g., California88). In California these Hazard Maps are used to enforce 

building standards for new construction. A website containing links to similar activities in other states 

exists.89 This hazard mapping is based solely on the potential for severe wildfire activity over landscapescales. Also, the fire behavior models used cannot directly provide exposure conditions (heat and 

firebrand flux) or capture fire spread through complex, heterogeneous fuels. The characteristics and 

conditions the of the WUI fuel system (structures and vegetation) at the community or sub-community 

scale are not considered. Thus, while this hazard mapping approach is a good first step, the technology 

exists and is being developed to include WUI fire behavior predictions and fuels at the community to 
60

sub-community scales. Emerging cyber physical systems will combine data collected by distributed 

sensor networks with computational resources to provide insight on how fire might spread before an 

incident and during an actual incident. This will lead to an improved understanding of exposure 

conditions and, therefore, hazard mapping, building standards, and landscaping guidelines.

The wildland vegetation surrounding a community can play a critical role as to how a fire may spread 

into a community. Adjacent tree vegetation may ignite structures through intense thermal radiation or 

through embers. Incorporating non-combustible zones or fire breaks between nearby forest and 

communities aids in the prevention of radiative ignition. Adjacent grass vegetation may ignite 

structures through direct flame contact or thermal radiation. Non-combustible zones around structures 

would aid in the prevention of ignition from either flame contact or thermal radiation. Wildland fires, 

however, generate embers which can be lofted into the air and carried by the wind for distances as large 

as 20 km. Incorporating fire breaks sufficiently wide to prevent ember ignition are difficult to implement 

due to terrain, ownership, and jurisdictional issues. Fuels management or wildland fuel treatments are 

designed to reduce the amount of fuel available to the fire in wildland areas adjacent to communities. 

A significant amount of field research on wildland fuel treatments has been, and continues to be, funded 

by the Joint Fire Sciences Program.90 However, the large majority of these studies are focused on the 

ecological effects of the wildland fire, rather than how wildland fuel treatments would change the 

exposure conditions (e.g., heat and firebrand fluxes, or smoke production) of proximate WUI 

communities. Even for purely wildland fires, there is a lack of systematic, science-based, field research 

to characterize how wildland fuel treatments alter fire behavior and firebrand and smoke generation.91 

Some, largely anecdotally based, studies have found wildland fuel treatments can aid firefighter actions 

through improved access and visibility. Field studies that seek to understand the influence of wildland 

fuel treatments, in WUI settings, on overall fire behavior (e.g., spread rates, crowning potential, 

firebrand and smoke production) are needed. Current wildland fuel mapping for the U.S. is at 30 m 

resolution (LANDFIRE92). This is too coarse for use at most WUI settings. However, the technology exists 

now to map (at sub-structure scales) the fuels, terrain, and fire behavior using airborne infrared and 

LiDAR measurements. Such measurements during prescribed fires, along with ground based 

measurements of wind, fuels, and fire behavior would provide a much needed dataset to improve the

understating of the fire exposure conditions experienced by WUI communities. These measurements 

would also support the development of WUI fire computer models for risk assessment at the structure 

to community scale. Currently, WUI fire behavior models, which account for complex fuel loading and 

wind patterns in a WUI community, are in their first steps of development. WUI fire models can be used 

to better understand the exposure conditions present in severe conditions under which most damaging 

WUI fires occur but are beyond the scope of prescribed fire studies.

Relevant laboratory-scale standard test methods for building materials and structure design also require 

an improved understanding of the exposure conditions faced by WUI structures. Effective WUI building 

materials (e.g., siding) or assemblies (e.g., vented eaves) require standard test methods that simulate 

exposure conditions that are as, or more, severe than those in an actual WUI fire. Currently, standards 

development organizations (such as ASTM and others) are active advancing WUI related building and 
61

construction standards by compiling, organizing and harmonizing the understanding of WUI fire 

exposure conditions for structures and communities. Work is needed to advance standard guidelines for 

landscaping on residential parcels, community-scale landscaping, and wildland fuel treatments. The 

NFPA and ICC have relevant standards documents93,94 for residential and (to a lesser degree) 

community landscaping. How well structure and community scale risk assessment/mitigation tools 

actually help reduce structure ignition is best tested through post-fire studies (discussed below).

Education and effective information delivery is essential to the implementation of homeowner and 

community guidelines. There are a number of existing web-based resources that can be used to 

promulgate improved guidelines. The four most heavily used are ICC,

95 Firesafe,78 Firefree,77 and 

Firewise.

79 These guidelines are focused on building materials, structure attributes, and parcel 

landscaping. Expansion of these approaches is needed to include risk factors based on the attributes of 

adjacent structures and the surrounding vegetation. In addition, a benefit versus cost analysis tool that 

considers a range of recommended homeowner or community risk reduction actions is required. 

Communities differ in the amount of financial resources available for landscape and residential fuel 

treatments. An economic based tool that can account for this would be an attractive and effective 

component of an overall risk assessment/mitigation toolkit.

Table 3-20: Prevention: Existing and Emerging Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging / Future Technologies

• Landscape-scale hazard mapping

• Fire Retardant Chemical Treatment

• Fire resistant glazing and ember resistant 

ventilation portals

• Simple landscape-scale wildland fire behavior 

models

• Non-standardized WUI community data 

collection and risk assessment tools

• Fire resistant house wraps

• Community to sub-community hazard mapping

• Ignition resistant building materials and 

vegetation

• Fire resistant component assemblies

• Physics based , laboratory to landscape scale, 

WUI and wildland fire behavior models

• Standardized, GIS-based, WUI data collection 

and risk assessment tools

• Sensor networks linked to computational 

models of fire behavior to predict/track fire 

spread

3.5.4 Fire Protection

Engineering Fire Resistant design for building components, structures and communities is the focus of a 

mitigation approach, which begins with improving risk assessment tools and using engineered fire 
62

protection to mitigate or limit the impact of a WUI fire. A key component to improving risk assessment 

and mitigation tools (such as guidelines and standard test methods) is a well-founded and sufficiently 

broad database of structure and community attributes after damage due to a WUI fire. The objective is 

to learn lessons from WUI fire losses and to be able to provide science-based rehabilitation guidance for 

buildings and communities after a WUI fire event. The kind of information needed would include, for 

example, an accounting of roofing and siding materials, terrain, structure locations, and residential 

vegetation for all structures (destroyed, damaged, and undamaged) that were exposed to the WUI fire. 

Ideally, pre-fire community attributes would also be known. In addition, essential components to the 

database are defensive actions taken by firefighters, homeowners, and police. These include, for 

example, suppression of vegetative fires near a structure, closing of garage doors, or the use of a fire 

engine hose to suppress a roof fire. 

Engineered fire resistant design is also an essential component the mitigation approach and can reduce 

exposure to the fire, decrease the likelihood of ignition, and/or reduce fire spread. The geometry of the 

building may play a role. If a corner or seam allows embers to accumulate, a group of embers may 

transfer enough energy to cause ignition. A fire resistant design strategy would prevent the 

accumulation of embers through designs that reduce or eliminate geometries with internal corners, for 

example, which allow thermal radiation to be re-radiated from one surface to another. For 

communities, exposure to thermal radiation can be reduced by designing non-combustible zones 

between adjacent structures or vegetation. Implementation of effective fire resistant designs for 

building components, structures, and communities are a critical component of mitigating WUI fires.

Standardized post-fire data collection methods do not currently exist. This includes hardware, software, 

field procedures and protocols, and training of field crews. Emerging cyber physical systems will 

combine personnel and equipment tracking sensors with computational resources to track fire ground 

resources and enable intelligent deployment of fire apparatus and fire fighters. 

LiDAR, both ground and aerial based, and other remote sensing data can be a very valuable addition to 

ground based data. Both standardized reporting methods and a data repository system will support 

effective post-fire analysis. The data repository needs to be compatible with Geographic Information 

System (GIS) software in order to take advantage of GIS based analysis and visualization tools. The 

database and analysis tools would provide a means to track, with time, the effectiveness of existing and 

new risk assessment and mitigation techniques across a range of WUI community types and WUI fire 

exposure conditions.

Post-fire (and pre-fire) WUI community data collection could also identify shortcomings in 

recommended mitigation actions in terms of ease of implementation or clarity. This would help 

determine what improvements are needed in terms of community education and incentives. Analysis of 

post-fire data and sufficiently accurate WUI fire behavior and economic models would also support the 

development of rehabilitation guidelines (e.g., landscaping, vegetation choice and maintenance, building 

placement and construction choices and prioritization) for damaged communities.
63

Table 3-21: Fire Protection Activities: Existing and Emerging Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging / Future Technologies

• Fire shutters for windows

• Non-standardized field data collection 

methods

• Non-combustible zones

• Pre-Fire Foam Application

• Structure protection technologies 

deployed for special cases (e.g., historic 

buildings)

• Architectural designs to minimize reradiation zones

• Component and structure design to 

minimize ember accumulation

• Standardized, GIS-based, field data 

collection methods

• Risk Assessment of WUI fire hazard

• Community design tools using science 

based fire exposure mapping, and fire 

behavior and economic models

• Remote activated suppressant applicationfoam & water

• Advanced structural protection 

technologies for relatively general 

application

3.5.5 Response

Destructive WUI fire events usually occur in severe conditions (e.g., high winds, dry fuels) resulting in 

large, rapidly spreading, fire perimeters. As a result, firefighter suppression resources are overwhelmed. 

Large WUI fire events can involve thousand s of firefighters for days, or even weeks. Satellites are used 

for detection but in severe conditions the turn-around time of satellite information is too long for 

tactical use. Overall operational command and control is centered at an Incident Command Post. 

Firefighter safety and communication are of primary importance. In complex terrain, communications 

can be spotty. In extreme fires, cell phone towers and power lines may be destroyed. There is a need for 

improved rugged, portable communication systems and firefighter location technologies to improve 

firefighter safety, situational awareness, and command and control decision support. Emerging cyberphysical technologies that enable a firefighter to quickly monitor and analyze fire conditions will inform

his/her tactical decisions. The ability of new cyber-physical systems to communicate fire conditions, the 

location of emergency responders, and changing egress routes would improve operational safety and 

effectiveness. Firefighter personal protection equipment, tools, and resources can also be improved. 

This includes, for example, clothing, goggles, head lamps, fire shelters, fire weather information quality 

and use, respirators, and carbon monoxide detectors.

96,97
64

WUI fires differ from structural fires. They are more complex and require different equipment and 

operating procedures. Since there are no WUI specific standard equipment and operating procedures, 

these things need to be developed to effectively fight fires in the wildland-urban interface.

The WUI fire environment needs to be characterized to develop measurement capability to evaluate 

personal protective equipment. Limited data are available on the chemical and thermal environment of 

WUI fires. Structural fire fighters have safety equipment (SCBA & turnout gear) designed for interior 

attack but are too heavy and bulky for WUI fire fighting. Wildland fire fighters have minimal safety 

equipment (nomex uniforms and red bandanas) that is insufficient for wildland fires as well as WUI fires. 

Addressing this need would characterize the environment generated by a WUI fire and develop 

measurement science necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of safety equipment.

There is a need to develop the measurement science to characterize the effectiveness of existing and 

new passive defense technologies. Community response to WUI fires is typically limited to deployment 

of fire engines and fire fighters. There are a number of potential technologies which could harden 

structures and communities to be more fire resistive. For structures, these include metal shutters over 

openings (windows, doors, vents), water sprinklers for the exterior of structures, ember-resistant 

fences, foams or fire resistant wraps applied to the entire exterior of a structure. For communities, 

these include the strategic placement of non-combustible zones to either prevent fire spread or channel 

fire spread to specific defensible zones within a community. Several of these technologies are beginning 

to be offered to communities without any clear technical basis if the technologies are effective. 

Underlying measurements are needed to evaluate whether any of these technologies are effective in 

improving the fire resistance of communities.

Currently, there are no proven computer models capable of simulating fire spread through the complex 

fuels in the WUI. Current operational wildland fire behavior modeling tools used in the U.S. are based 

on the Rothermel fire spread model developed in the early 1970s.98 This fire spread model has a number 

of shortcomings.99 The U.S. Forest Service (USFS) has recently begun an effort to improve their 

operational wildland fire predictions by improving wind prediction.

100 The National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provide fire weather forecasts over the US. These forecasts can 

also be used by fire officials to strategically pre-position resources. Fire weather forecasts use the 

atmospheric variables of wind, humidity, and temperature forecasts to rate fire risk. No accounting of 

fire/atmosphere interaction or smoke transport is made. There is a need for WUI fire behavior models 

for operational use. Especially important are the influence of terrain, varying, fuels, and fire/atmosphere 

interaction on the development of extreme fire behavior.101,102,103 

Smoke transport predictions would aid implementation of community evacuation and aerial 

suppression. The Department of Homeland Security is funding research on structure protection such as 

wrapping homes with a protective blanket.104 Presumably, with accurate fire spread predictions, 

sufficient lead-time, and a system capable of deployment in strong winds, a number of homes could be 
65

protected. It is unclear how such a system would be used to protect 100s or 1000s of threatened homes, 

which is not uncommon in extreme fires. As mentioned in the previous section and discussed more fully 

in the next section, it is essential to build a database of communities burned by WUI fires. This will often 

require data collection in burned communities while the main fire is still active. For safe and effective 

deployment, teams must be fully trained, firefighter certified, and integrated in the incident command 

systems. There is a need for a standardized and rapid data collection methodology. The resulting dataset 

would guide subsequent, more in-depth, data collection efforts which also need to be standardized.

Table 3-22: Response: Existing and Emerging Technologies.

Existing Emerging / Future Technologies

• Piloted reconnaissance of fireline

• Coarse resolution tactical fire weather 

models based on atmospheric variables or 

simple fire behavior models

• Distributed Suppression Tactics

• WUI specific training and tactics

• Reliable and standard communication 

equipment in rugged terrain

• Respirator and other personal protective 

equipment suitable for wildland 

firefighting

• High resolution tactical fire weather 

models that capture terrain influence on 

wind and fire/atmosphere interaction

• Strategic placement of non-combustible 

zones to break-up fire line

• Evacuation Models for Communities

• Body worn sensors (biometrics and fire 

environment monitors)

• Smart hose deployment/delivery systems

• Remote sensor packages and robots

3.5.6 Recovery

Standardized post-fire data collection methods do not currently exist. This includes hardware, software, 

field procedures and protocols, and training of field crews. LiDAR, both ground and aerial based, and 

other remote sensing data can be a very valuable addition to ground based data. Both standardized 

reporting methods and a data repository system will support effective post-fire analysis. The data 
66

repository needs to be compatible with Geographic Information System (GIS) software in order to take 

advantage of GIS based analysis and visualization tools. The database and analysis tools would provide a 

means to track, with time, the effectiveness of existing and new risk assessment and mitigation 

techniques across a range of WUI community types and WUI fire exposure conditions.

Post-fire (and pre-fire) WUI community data collection could also identify shortcomings in 

recommended mitigation actions in terms of ease of implementation or clarity. This would help 

determine what improvements are needed in terms of community education and incentives. Analysis of 

post-fire data and sufficiently accurate WUI fire behavior and economic models would also support the 

development of rehabilitation guidelines (e.g., landscaping, vegetation choice and maintenance, building 

placement and construction choices and prioritization) for damaged communities.

3.5.7 Summary

To reduce the fraction of houses at the wildland-urban interface that are ignited by exposure to outdoor 

fires, measurement science must be applied to improve prevention, fire protection, response and 

recovery. Emerging cyber physical technologies will combine remote sensors with other mechanical 

systems or computational resources to assist homeowners and fire fighters in monitoring the fire 

ground environment, maintain communication, and deploy necessary resources in order to improve the 

effectiveness while maintaining the safety of fire fighters and homeowners. Research is needed to 

enable the groups of key technologies (listed in Table 3-23) that can have an impact on the fire problem. 

While Table 3-23 lists many different technologies, some technologies are more likely than others to 

have high impact. A prioritized investment in WUI technologies will maximize the impact with finite 

resources. The priorities are presented in Chapter 4.
67

Table 3-23: Summary of WUI Technologies.

Existing Technologies Emerging / Future Technologies

• Landscape-scale hazard mapping

• Fire Retardant Chemical Treatment

• Fire resistant glazing and ember 

resistant ventilation portals

• Simple landscape-scale wildland fire 

behavior models

• Non-standardized WUI community data 

collection and risk assessment tools

• Fire Resistant House Wraps

• Radiation Reflective Coatings for 

Windows

• Coarse resolution tactical fire weather 

models based on atmospheric variables 

or simple fire behavior models

• Structure protection technologies 

deployed for special cases (e.g., historic 

buildings)

• Pre-Fire Foam Application

• Fire Shutters

• Non-standardized field data collection 

methods

• Community/ sub-community hazard maps

• Community design tools using science 

based fire exposure mapping, and fire 

behavior and economic models

• Ignition resistant building materials and 

vegetation

• Fire resistant component assemblies

• Physics based , laboratory to landscape 

scale, WUI and wildland fire behavior 

models

• Standardized, GIS-based, WUI field data 

collection and risk assessment tools

• Sensor networks linked to computational 

models of fire behavior to predict/track fire 

spread

• Body worn sensors (biometrics and fire 

environment monitors)

• Smart hose deployment/delivery systems

• Remote sensor packages and robots

• Distributed suppression tactics

• WUI specific training and tactics

• Reliable communication equipment for

rugged terrain

• Wildland firefighting respirator 

• High resolution tactical fire weather models 

that capture terrain influence on wind and 

fire/atmosphere interaction

• New structure protection technologies for 

relatively general application

• Remote activated suppressant applicationfoam & water

• Strategic placement of non-combustible 

zones to break-up fire line

• Evacuation models for communities

• Architectural designs to minimize reradiation zones

• Component and structure design to 

minimize ember accumulation

• Risk assessment of WUI fire hazard
68

3.6 OTHER FIRE TYPES

Fires associated with means of transportation, manufacturing and industrial fires all contribute to the 

U.S. fire burden. While these areas are not the direct focus of this roadmap, the measurement science 

developed to mitigate fire losses in buildings and communities are also applicable to these sectors. 

The transportation sector is particularly worthy of further discussion. This sector includes vehicles 

themselves (road vehicles, aircraft, trains, subway cars), as well as the supporting infrastructure, 

including underground subway stations, airports, ships, and ports. Of these, motor vehicles are the 

most substantive contributors to the U.S. fire burden, in terms of life safety, property loss and 

intervention cost (see Appendix A). About 10 % of U.S. fire fatalities are attributed to post-collision 

vehicle fires,2 almost exclusively associated with post-collision entrapment. About 16 % of emergency 

fire responses are to highway vehicle fires.105 

Additional challenges may come from the next generation vehicles, which will likely be powered by 

alternative fuels and energy sources. These vehicles may include plug-in hybrid electrical vehicles 

(PHEV), electrical vehicles (EV), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCV), and biofuel vehicles. Already on the 

market are compressed natural gas vehicles (CNGV) and hybrid electrical vehicles (HEV). Due to the 

differences in the technologies employed in these vehicles, a number of fire safety challenges unique to 

these vehicles may emerge and ought to be addressed before the vehicles are fully commercialized. 

Although some of the fire safety issues are similar for some of the alternative fuels (e.g., CNG vs. GH2), 

the combination of different technologies in these vehicles, together with new and untested technology 

warrant special attention. 

The areas of fire safety concern involve the vehicle itself (design, operation, accident, fueling, parking, 

and maintenance) and problems specific to alternative fuels (e.g., flammability, storage, and fuel 

leakage). Both active and passive fire protection strategies can play a role.

Post-collision battery-induced shorts are a common mechanism for initiation of car fires. Preventing 

ignition by hardening battery storage and considering material issues would be useful. Fire safety issues 

associated with Li-ion batteries become more important as battery cell sizes increase to meet the driving 

requirements for HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs. 

Improving material flammability performance would slow fire spread within vehicles. In addition, in 

alternatively fueled vehicles, these materials will be subjected to different potential ignition sources or 

other thermal exposures (e.g., flammable electrolytes, hydrogen flames). A new set of material 

flammability test methods will likely need to be developed. 

Advances have been made on active suppression of car fires.106 The challenge is to find cost-effective 

solutions with an emphasis on reliable low-weight solutions. 
69

3.7 CROSS-CUTTING STRATEGIC FOCUS AREAS

3.7.1 Introduction

While Sections 3.2 to 3.5 describe strategic focus areas in building fires, WUI fires, and firefighting, 

research is often conducted in areas where the potential impacts can apply broadly. These cross-cutting 

research areas represent an opportunity to simultaneously attack several aspects of the national fire 

problem, therefore representing a potential economy of scale. 

Fundamental fire science is a prime example of the benefits of cross-cutting research. Through 

measurement science to improve the fundamental understanding of fire phenomena, novel insights are 

often developed which may enable technology development in one or more seemingly disparate 

thrusts. For example, fundamental investigations of basic fluid mechanics at NIST, including the 

formulation of the low Mach number form of the Navier-Stokes equations, led to the development of 

the basic numerical algorithm for modern computational fluid dynamic (CFD) fire modeling. NIST’s Fire 

Dynamic Simulator (FDS) computational fire model has become a common engineering tool used by the 

fire protection engineering community, the fire service, and wildland fire modeling (WFDS). *

 Basic 

research areas include advanced fire phenomenology, theory, measurements, and materials. Other 

examples include development of computational models and advanced sensors. Without advances in 

fundamental fire science, gaps in understanding will hinder progress on applied fire safety. 

3.7.2 Fire Physics and Chemistry

Improved understanding of the physical science of fire is essential to enable innovation and progress at 

all scales in applied fire protection. Fundamental fire physics includes the processes of non-ideal mass 

and heat transfer, gas phase fluid flow about objects in boundary layers, as well as turbulent fire flow, 

and radiative exchange including its blockage by smoke. Fire chemistry includes gas phase flame 

reactions including flame inhibition and the formation of smoke, and solid phase chemistry including 

detailed mechanisms associated with charring, pyrolysis, bubbling, vaporization, intumescence, and 

melt-drip phenomena. Each of these topics involves in-depth knowledge of the processes and the 

instrumentation used to characterize them. Facilitating fire protection solutions mandates 

collaborations between those who have experience with fire phenomena and those with scientific 

disciplinary expertise. 

3.7.3 Fire Measurements and Data

Improved measurements are needed to fully characterize fire phenomena, validate models, and support 

code and standards development, and fire investigations. Innovative and inexpensive (low hardware 

and labor costs) instrumentation and measurement techniques are needed to fully characterize real 

scale and reduced scale fire phenomena. Advanced sensors (see section below) and instrumentation will 

enable the next generation of fire measurements. New or improved techniques are needed to improve 

 

* The history and future development plans of the FDS model can be found at ”FDS/Smokeview Research Plan “

(http://code.google.com/p/fds-smv/wiki/FDS_Road_Map)
70

the measurement of important fire phenomena to improve basic understanding of heat release rate, 

toxic gases, particulates, temperatures and heat fluxes. Improved temporal resolution, spatial 

resolution and accuracy in the measurement of these properties would facilitate fire science. Other 

examples of measurement challenges include: 

• Continuous real-time field measurements of fire structure, including the time/temperature/gas 

composition history with in-situ soot particle and toxic gases in the upper layer of 

underventilated compartment fires, 

• Highly dynamic heat release rate measurements (fast fire growth or extinguishment),

• Structural performance measurements in a fire environment,

• Community-scale wildfire measurements, and 

• Solid phase material properties relevant to pyrolysis and material flammability, and fire 

behavior.

Prediction of soot, hydrocarbons and toxic species is limited. Measurements are needed to provide 

input for existing models, guide future model development, and support model validation. Fire 

measurements for benchmark problems are important for the validation of theory and models. A 

multimedia web searchable fire measurement database with well documented data fields, images, 

videos, schematics, scaled drawings, and reports would greatly enhance the investment in fire research. 

Integration of measurements and models would enable appropriate interpretation of measurements.

Advances in the use and interpretation of results from appropriate standard test methods would expand 

their utility.*

3.7.4 Advanced Fire Sensors

New sensor technologies have the potential to significantly improve fire safety and even fundamentally 

change the way humans behave and interact with un-wanted fires. Sensors that can detect the very 

early stages of fire, or even pre-fire conditions could facilitate the earliest possible intervention (e.g. 

automatic de-energizing of systems or localized automatic suppression). Sensors provide the trigger to 

alert occupants of a fire hazard. Sensors that do not false alarm would improve evacuation time. They 

could also be used to locate, track, and direct occupants during a fire event. Fire environment sensors 

could be used in a tactical manner in situations ranging from structure fires to WUI fires, to determine 

where the active fire is located and how it is spreading in order to more effectively fight the fire. In

addition, autonomic, robotic firefighting opens up a new domain in fire safety. The right sensors 

(thermal, radiative, chemical species, video, etc.) and automatic information processing are necessary 

for success. The health and safety of the fire service can be much improved with advanced sensing to 

determine exposure threats experienced in a myriad of on-scene activities.

The keys to applying sensor technologies are:

 

* The cone calorimeter and the LIFT device are two of the standard test apparatus needed as part of a 

measurement science fire protection instrument arsenal.
71

• Clear identification of the types of signals that would provide productive information to people 

and the various information systems,

• Requisite expertise in the particular sensor platform,

• Experimental characterization of sensor response associated with its expected use, 

• Signal processing, and

• Modeling and data fusion techniques.

3.7.5 Advanced Materials 

New innovative approaches to developing advanced fire-safe materials are critical to preventing fires, 

protecting civilians and fire service personnel from injury and death, and enabling the US industry to be 

competitive in the global marketplace. These innovative approaches enable materials and fire-safe 

products to comply with fire resistance and service life performance requirements defined by global 

standards, regulations, and markets while also enabling compliance with environmental and health 

regulations, and the manufacturer’s requirements for fabricating and consumer’s aesthetic 

requirements for the purchasing of end-products. Critical to successfully developing and transferring 

these approaches and materials to US industry is developing the characterization tools and methods to 

understanding the structure property relationships that dictates the performance changes. Equally 

critical is developing tools and methods to simulate and measure the impact of end-use stressing on the 

performance, health safety, and service life of these fire-safe products. The cross-cutting fundamental 

mechanistic understanding obtained from these measurements will enable US industry to use these 

approaches and materials to develop cost-effective and long service life fire-safe products. 

Examples of cross cutting innovative approaches to develop advanced materials are:

• Layer-by-layer coatings

• nanotechnologies

• polymer covalently linked flame retardants

• bio-derived flame retardants and fire resistant 

polymers

• non-leachable flame retardants

• combinations of approaches

Many of these approaches show sufficient potential to deserve complete evaluation and 

characterization in all relevant applications and fire-safe products. Examples of potential fire-safe 

products that will use advanced materials for manufacturing, and in-service use, burning, and disposal 

of:

• protective clothing

• soft furnishings

• wall and floor coverings

• insulation

• wire/cable 

• electronic and component housings

• building roof and siding products 

Examples of cross-cutting characterization tools are:
72

• measuring the characteristics at the flame retardant and nanotechnology interface with substrates 

(e.g., Forster resonance energy transfer spectroscopy)

• highly sensitive and accurate measurements of the amount and surface area of nanomaterials

released from manufacturing and materials use (e.g., Scanning Mobility Size Counter)

The keys to US industry and standards/regulation committees using these innovative approaches, 

advanced materials, and testing tools and protocols are:

• systematic and detailed evaluation and characterization of innovative approaches and advanced 

materials intended for fire-safe products

• clear identification of the current and emerging global performance and environmental health and 

safety (EH&S) requirements for manufacturing, in-service use, and service life for fire-safe products 

and the containing materials

• developing tools and methodologies that enable characterizing and testing the fire resistance, 

physical, mechanical, EH&S properties of the innovative approaches and advanced materials

• guidelines for using, testing, selecting, and restricting the use of innovative approaches and 

advanced materials based on state of the art knowledge

3.7.6 Advanced Computational Models 

Models can be a testbed for the conversion of theory into practice. For example, models can form the 

basis of the engineering tools used by practitioners for design calculations. Performance based design, 

for example, relies primarily on the designers ability to numerically predict the growth, spread, and 

mitigation of the fire and the movement of the occupants. Regional emergency management officials 

may issue evacuation orders or devise specific mitigation strategies based upon the prediction of 

numerical WUI fire models. Additionally, numerical models may assist in the planning for experiments, 

replace or reduce the need (and cost) of full-scale experiments, or allow for the extrapolation of 

experimental findings and interpretation of experimental results.

Models facilitate the understanding of fire phenomena and allow one to ask questions that support the 

development of Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities technologies. Due to limitations of 

the current generation of computers, computational models are not able to provide fundamental 

solutions across the many orders of magnitude in length scale that are relevant for realistic fire 

phenomena. Multi-scale modeling and the use of engineering approximations is needed to represent 

processes, properties, and relationships. There are many types of modeling relevant to the fire 

problem, representing a variety of applications over different time and length scales. They include fire 

modeling, molecular dynamics modeling, and modeling at intermediate scales. These models can be 

linked to human behavior through egress modeling and to building and infrastructure behavior through 

structural modeling.

Fire modeling addresses both fires within structures and in the wildlands. Fire modeling is commonly 

used by fire protection engineers for building safety system design and is being developed for use by 

incident commanders (WUI and structural) and community planners. The current generation of fire 
73

models is accurate to varying degrees depending on the specific application. In general, fire models are 

adequate for predicting the far field thermal and chemical environment for overventilated fire 

conditions in buildings, but are less accurate for the prediction of near-field effects, underventilated fire 

conditions (such as flashover), and phenomena such as fire suppression, fire toxicity, fire spread and 

growth, and ultimately fire hazard. The 2006 workshop of The International Forum of Fire Research 

Directors identified two issues as the most important research topics of the fire research community –

these included models of active fire protection systems on fire growth, and the fate of combustion 

products.65 A slew of submodels are needed to address these issues including better approximations of 

solid-phase pyrolysis, gas-phase fire chemistry and more accurate descriptions of the suppression 

systems. For example, the simultaneous discharge from several sprinkler or water mist nozzles have 

effects on the pressure of the pipe system, and therefore on the mass flow of suppressant. In terms of 

pyrolysis, there have been numerous models developed over the past 30 years. Insights into specific 

material configurations and phenomena have been gained; there is a further need to develop 

comprehensive condensed phase models for practical, general-purpose applications. Computational fire 

models have only been around about a decade. Much work is needed to increase their value in 

addressing fire protection engineering problems. Models of fire spread from the wildlands into and 

through a WUI community would help in the planning of different landscaping options, land use options, 

fuels management requirements and use of community resources. Fires on large scales need 

completely different ways to handle engineering approximations over course grid sizes, fire weather 

interaction, and burning of vegetative fuels, etc. 

Fire Modeling: With important phenomena acting at many scales, a multi-scale approach to fire 

modeling enables calculation of material properties and system behavior from molecular to regional 

levels. Models at intermediate scales between molecular and macroscopic models are needed to 

improve understanding of fundamental fire physics including mechanisms of charring, pyrolysis, 

bubbling, vaporization, and melt-drip phenomena, and to fill the gap between small-scale testing and 

real scale contributions to flammability. Model development must go hand-in-hand with experimental 

testing, both to identify the relevant/critical physics at any given scale and to provide necessary material 

properties that are not (yet) available from lower scale models. 

Egress modeling: While numerous numerical models are available for egress analysis, the dearth of 

usable input or validation data renders model output highly uncertain. The need for validated models 

and data is seen as a significant measurement need for technological innovation in building construction 

in the NIST Assessment of the United States Measurement System and in recent international 

workshops on evacuation.107,108,109,110,111 The current approach adopted by the evacuation community 

focuses on deterministic solutions using physics-based modeling analogues (such as fluid or electron 

flows). While appealing from a computational and theoretical perspective, evacuation is more 

stochastic than deterministic and there are no models that approach the complexity of human behavior. 

More and better data are needed to form the basis of these models. 

Structural modeling: The state of the art in measurement science to predict structural performance to 

failure under extreme loading conditions such as in an uncontrolled fire is lacking, which can lead to 
74

significant safety concerns. Thus, there is an urgent and critical need to develop and implement 

improved standards, methodologies, and tools that explicitly consider realistic building fire loads, both 

in the design of new structures and in the rehabilitation of existing structures. Development of accurate 

models to predict complex structural system behavior resulting from the effects of thermal expansion 

and diminished mechanical properties at elevated temperatures requires the availability of robust 

computational models, validated against large-scale tests under real fire exposures. At the present time, 

experimental data on the behavior of connections, members, and systems under realistic building fire 

conditions are lacking. Conducting real-scale structural/fire experiments poses significant challenges 

with respect to structural loading, instrumentation, protection of the facility, hydraulic components, and

reaction frames from fire exposure, and ensuring that tests can be conducted safely and effectively to 

support the validation of predictive models. Better predictive capability in the performance of 

structures in realistic fires supports the development of performance-based design tools.

3.7.7 Cyber-Physical Systems

A whole new generation of smart systems are achievable through the convergence of networking and 

information technology with manufactured products, engineered systems of products, and associated 

services. The boundary between advanced sensor networks and advanced models yields advanced

cyber-physical systems and enables Smart Fire Protection with the possibility of enhanced safety and 

functional performance. Access to specific and reliable information regarding fire location, history and 

projected growth, building geometry and contents, the location of occupants and firefighting personnel, 

fire suppression activities and their consequences, and the status of fire protection assets would enable 

optimization of fire service response and transform fire protection from one based on experiential 

judgment to one that fully exploits available information and knowledge. 

Smart fire response would be the result of the integration of smart fire apparatus, fire-smart buildings, 

and smart firefighter equipment. The technologies for many of these components exist; their effective 

integration is lacking. Situational awareness for the firefighter and incident commander is critical and 

would form the basis of smart firefighting equipment, transmitting information about fire environment, 

the status of firefighter and equipment, and firefighter location to the firefighter and incident 

commander. In addition, the incident commander would be able to communicate and transmit 

information to the firefighter. Smart fire apparatus would employ sensing and communications 

technology which, when combined with a smart fire fighting operating system, would enhance the 

safety and effectiveness of the modern firefighter. A Fire Smart Building would aggregate sensor and 

performance data from various building systems – including HVAC, elevator, security, fire alarm, 

sprinkler, occupancy/energy management systems to enable capabilities to visualize the present 

severity of the incident, forecast future conditions (e.g., significant hazards such as pending collapse or 

flashover conditions) and monitor and track emergency responders within and around a structure. 

Other advanced mobile and stationary cyber-physical systems such as ground-based and flying robots 

would support fire fighting activities before fire fighter arrival or as fire fighting tools, providing mapping 

reconnaissance of a building or physical tasks such as pulling hose line up stairs. Cyber physical systems 
75

have the potential to enable a transformation from traditional to next-generation structural and WUI 

fire protection and fire fighting response.

3.7.8 Green Fire Protection: Ensuring Sustainability and Safety

Societal concern for sustainability112,* presents emerging challenges and opportunities for many fields 

including fire safety. The range of issues is broad and includes many facets of building and community 

design. Changes are happening rapidly and include the use of new designs and green materials in 

products and construction in the built environment, restricted use of water for testing and maintenance 

of fire control systems, alternative power systems for buildings and vehicles, and new materials and 

products that consider life cycle implications. Innovative technical solutions are needed to ensure that 

sustainable solutions do not negatively impact fire safety. 

Many new residential and non-residential buildings are being designed and constructed to meet “green” 

standards. This is a world-wide phenomenon. The International Code Council and others are endorsing 

green building codes. In the US, LEED is a common certification fostered by the U.S. Green Building 

Council. Green designs may promote a tight building envelope with low leakage, novel insulation 

materials or assemblies, double and triple pane windows, and other energy-efficient construction 

methods, which may affect fire conditions and dynamics as well as fire fighting operations. Fire safety 

performance associated with emerging green building products and technologies (e.g., LED lights, solar 

panels and other on-site power generation) presents numerous questions and challenges. The 

development of “green” or sustainable chemicals used in the manufacture of products and the 

proposed bans on halogenated flame retardants in several states and Europe, suggest that new test

methods are needed to assess green materials, products and practices in terms of fire safety 

performance. New test methods and standards may be needed to ensure that new green materials and 

technologies are fire-safe. New materials, products, technologies, and building design will likely have 

ramifications in terms of the effectiveness of fire fighting operations. New performance metrics, new 

fire fighting tactics, and new technologies may be needed to deal with the human and environmental 

health, sustainable site development, water savings, energy efficiency, materials selection and indoor 

environmental quality issues. To better understand the effects of the changing landscape, the impact of 

green materials and technologies on fire safety needs to be assessed to ensure that green technologies 

don’t compromise established levels of fire protection.

 

* Sustainability: meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet 

their needs. 
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4 PRIORITIZED OUTPUTS AND OUTCOMES FOR THE REDUCED RISK 

OF FIRE IN BUILDINGS AND COMMUNITIES GOAL

4.1 PHILOSOPHY

Within the construct of three major focus areas associated with reducing the risk of fire in buildings and 

communities, Chapter 3 systematically analyzed the universe of possible technical approaches to reduce 

the national fire burden. However, finite resources only are available* to pursue the overall Reduced 

Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Goal. Therefore, some prioritization is necessary to ensure 

that the available resources are applied with a high return on investment. 

Strategic priorities for research programs are determined by identifying research areas which reduce 

one or more significant component of the national fire problem and are amenable to application of 

measurement science and technological solutions. In addition to extensive internal discussion of 

research priorities, assessment of future research investment was provided by experts from industry, 

state and federal agencies, and academia during a recent workshop85 and on-going discussions. 

Additional insight will be garnered from response to this roadmap and its periodic reevaluation. 

In the first section below, using the aforementioned criteria, the highest priority research areas are 

identified given the current resources available within the Innovative NIST Fire Protection Goal. This 

necessitates focus on a limited number of high-impact projects in each strategic area, each with a 

phased schedule for delivery of outputs and outcomes.†

 Identification of specific measurement science 

outputs and outcomes ensures that critical technologies are adequately supported. The outcomes are 

framed in terms of the outputs or measurement science results that are needed to enable its realization. 

Thus, the output/outcome pairs are categorized in terms of a timeline broken into three durations: 

short-term (immediate to three years), medium-term (three to eight years), and long-term (greater than

eight years) based on current resource limitations. This strategic plan and the outcomes will be 

reviewed and refined over the years to better achieve the Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and 

Communities Goal, depending on a number of factors including the identification of new technological 

opportunities, emerging and evolving fire safety issues, information that becomes available, or 

redirection recommended by major reconnaissance and investigative studies in the aftermath of 

disaster and failure events, or changes in major fire loss trends. 

 

* Resources include federal appropriation, staffing level and expertise, and equipment and facilities.

† Outputs and outcomes are defined in Chapter 1 of this document. 
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4.2 STRATEGIC PRIORITIES GIVEN CURRENT RESOURCES

4.2.1 Reduced Fire Risk in Buildings

As described in Chapter 3, the emphasis of this work is to develop and deploy advances in measurement 

science to increase the safety of building occupants and the performance of structures and their 

contents by enabling science-based standards and codes, software tools, and best practice guides. The 

key technical ideas fall into two major categories:

• to reduce residential fire losses, through measurement science that emphasizes: 

o Improved Flammability Performance of Materials and Products, and

o Advanced Fire Detection.

• to enable cost-effective fire safety solutions by enabling performance-based design, which 

emphasizes:

o Improved Egress Performance,

o Improved Structural Fire Resistance, 

o Advanced Engineered Fire Protection, and

o Lessons Learned from Post-Fire Analysis.

The highest priority research products for these areas are listed below.

4.2.1.1 Residential Fire Safety

4.2.1.1.1 Improved Flammability Performance of Materials and Products

• Standard cigarette (NIST Standard Reference Material) for testing new mattresses and upholstered 

furniture for their resistance to ignition by cigarettes, the single largest cause of U.S. fire deaths –

since the conventional test cigarette is no longer being manufactured, this will protect homeowners 

against a resurgence of fatal furnishing fires. Short Term

• Novel nanoparticle fire retardants using Layer-by-Layer (nano-FR/LbL) coatings - advanced

technology to reduce the heat release rate (HRR) of foam by 30 % and thereby reduce the fire 

hazard of polyurethane foam. Short Term

• A technically sound furniture design tool based on characterized physical and combustion properties 

of the furniture components that will be used by furniture manufacturers to produce residential 
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upholstered furniture (RUF) with improved flammability behavior.*

 The design tool would enable 

RUF manufacturers to identify the materials and configurations necessary to produce RUF with 

desired levels of fire performance. Short Term

• Bench-scale methods to identify effective non-brominated gas-phase fire retardant compounds with 

superior environmental, health, and safety (EH&S) characteristics – a new generation of sustainable 

and effective fire retardants will enhance public safety. Short Term

• Guidelines for quantifying the performance of fire blocking barrier fabrics which are employed to 

provide fire-safe mattresses and upholstered furniture – these guidelines will provide a competitive 

advantage for U.S. industry, by enabling development of superior fire blocking fabrics that are 

critical to complying with full-scale fire regulations for mattresses and upholstered furniture. Short 

Term

• Database on the environmental fate of polymer nanoparticle flame retardants after the material is 

involved in a fire – This will provide the basis for consensus test methods and standards for 

nanoparticle emissions enabling industry to develop products with environmentally safe 

nanoparticle flame retardants. Short Term

• Sustainable materials which demonstrate improved material flammability performance and 

acceptable Environmental Health & Safety characteristics – these materials (including high char 

yield, low smoldering fabrics and batting fibers, novel fiber blends, and nanocomposite coatings on 

fabrics and foams, as well as bio-based, sustainable thermoplastics such as polylactide using high 

char yield, anti-drip nano-additives) will maintain or improve the ignition and burning characteristics 

of interior furnishings (upholstered furniture, bedding, mattresses, etc.), ensure long-term societal 

use, and reduce the risk of hidden societal costs. Medium Term

• Database of room test results and small-scale test data that characterize fire spread within furnished 

residential rooms – identification and incorporation into standards of the appropriate fire properties 

of room furnishings and interior finish will stimulate the manufacture of low flammability household 

products. Medium Term

• Guidelines and NIST standard reference materials (NIST SRMs) for understanding the parameters 

and properties of polymeric materials which control material flammability – guidelines and SRMs 

will aid industry in developing new sustainable flame retarded polymers, and contribute to standard 

procedures for quantifying the fire safety of foam, fabric and composites. Medium Term

 

* Much like the existing mattress standard, a hazard analysis will guide the development of an upholstered 

furniture standard or regulation which will ensure that compliant products produce significantly better outcomes 

in residential fire events.
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• Guidelines for processing nano-additives in polymer nano-composites to improve fire performance 

when used in plastics, fiber, fabrics and foam – this knowledge will enable U.S. industry utilize nanoadditives to develop a sustainable competitive advantage in international markets associated with 

consumer electronics, wire and cable, mattresses and upholstered furniture products Medium Term

• Measurement science toolkit for characterizing innovative approaches (e.g., bio-nano-materials and 

flame retardant additives) to reduce material flammability while accounting for sustainability – this 

capability will enable reduced flammability furnishings, building materials, and consumer products 

and will lead to substantial reduction in the societal cost of fire. Long Term

4.2.1.1.2 Advanced Fire Detection

• Data on the characteristics of very early combustion signatures – this information along with novel 

real-time analytical methods will enable a reduction in sensing time and nuisance alarms. 

• Standard test method for residential smoke alarms that accounts for nuisance signal sources – a 

disproportionate number of fire deaths occur in residences without working smoke detectors, many 

purposely disabled due to the annoyance of frequent false alarms; reliable smoke alarms will reduce 

the number of residential fatalities. Short Term

• Next-generation detectors – development of low-cost, multi-criteria micro-sensors will improve 

reliability and robustness for early and accurate fire detection. Medium Term

4.2.1.2 Performance-based Design

4.2.1.2.1 Advanced Engineered Fire Protection

• The next generation of predictive fire models with demonstrated accuracy and robustness combined 

with development based on user needs – advanced fire models will enable performance-based 

design engineering. Recent progress in verification and validation (V&V) standards has enabled V&V 

for field and zone models, such as FDS and CFAST, respectively, to be conducted in a consistent 

manner. Additionally, new algorithms will improve predictive accuracy.*

 Short Term

 

* Implementation of novel algorithms such as Immersed Boundary Method will improve and expand the predictive 

capability of current fire models using sub-models that better describe critical physical and chemical processes in 

fires and can be validated using advanced fire measurement techniques. FDS is the Fire Dynamics Simulator and 

CFAST is the Consolidated Fire and Smoke Transport model. NIST intends to support the continued development 

and maintenance of CFAST and FDS, advancing these advanced engineering design tools. 
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• Verified and validated software tools, including field and zone models, to enable practicing 

engineers to predict fire spread and growth, and the emission of smoke and toxic gases during a 

building fire – the ability to quickly and accurately model fire growth and spread in rooms with 

realistic furnishings and fire protection systems will support advanced design methods and costeffective fire protection of engineered buildings. Medium Term

• The first computational software tools that predict the fire performance of engineered buildings, 

their fire safety systems, and the hazards to occupants and emergency responders during a fire –

the ability to compare alternative fire protection capabilities for a variety of fire and building types 

will significantly reduce design and construction costs, life and property losses, and business 

interruption in both new construction and buildings undergoing retrofit. Long Term

4.2.1.2.2 Improved Structural Fire Resistance

• New measurement capabilities to evaluate predictive calculations on the response of multi-story 

structural frames to fire and other imposed loads, which will enable more cost-effective structural 

installations. Short Term

• Database on the fire resistance performance of large-scale structural connections, components, 

subassemblies, and systems under realistic fire and loading conditions – the database will facilitate 

validation of predictive models and enable the development of performance-based design 

methodologies. Medium Term

• Validated software tools to enable performance prediction of a structure as a complete system of 

components and connections exposed to fire and mechanical loads – these tools will enable the 

transition to performance-based methods for design of the fire resistance of structures. Long Term

4.2.1.2.3 Improved Egress Performance

• Database of information for use by practicing engineers that characterizes occupant movement 

during fire drill evacuations for a suite of buildings types – the database will provide the basis for 

engineering design of safe and cost-effective emergency egress systems in buildings. Short Term

• Standard test method for estimating the toxic potency of smoke and gases from burning interior 

furnishing products (chairs, electrical cables, etc.) – smoke inhalation kills more people than burn 

injuries and smoke obscuration is a principal factor in the escape time from a fire; knowing how long 

it takes for a fire to produce life-threatening conditions within a structure will enable cost-effective 

fire safety design practices. Medium Term

• Validated egress models that include behavioral characteristics affecting people movement and 

emerging movement technologies – development of fundamental theory of human behavior (e.g., 

wayfinding, collective behavior, interpretation of environmental cues, and risk perception) during a 
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structure fire will his will enable performance based design tools for practitioners. Models will 

incorporate emerging movement methods, such as occupant evacuation elevators. Long Term

4.2.1.2.4 Post-Fire Analysis

• Lessons learned from analysis of fire incidents- Disaster and failure studies will inform changes to 

fire standards and building codes and will significantly reduce life and property losses in both new 

construction and buildings undergoing retrofit. Long Term

4.2.2 Advanced Fire Service Technologies

As described in Chapter 3, the emphasis of this work is to enable the implementation of cost-effective 

advanced fire service technologies through the development of science-based standards and codes, 

software tools, and best practice guides. The new technical ideas fall into a matrix of categories, before, 

during and after a fire incident, and within the context of the following three major categories, 

involving:

• The Community

• The Department

• The firefighter

A number of key approaches within these categories (see Fig. 3.2 and discussion) represent the highest 

priority measurement science activities, including:

• Equipment, 

• Tactics,

• Training and Education, 

• Strategic Resource Allocation, and

• Situational Awareness.

The highest priority research activities for each of these areas are listed below. 

4.2.2.1 Equipment

• Performance standards for improving protection provided by firefighter respiratory masks, and selfcontained breathing apparatus. This will ensure adequate respiratory protection is maintained 

during harsh firefighting conditions. Short Term

• Performance standards for predicting the service life of firefighter protective clothing – this 

evaluation tool will ensure performance of existing gear and provide a method to retire gear that 

has reached the end of its useful life; improved test methods will also facilitate the development of 

new fabrics and materials for U.S. and international markets. Medium Term
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• Performance standards and test methods for evaluating critical electronic equipment used by first 

responders – performance-based testing of safety equipment including radios and locator/tracking 

systems, will ensure that firefighters can depend on equipment to work under actual firefighting 

conditions; realistic test scenarios and standards will enable U.S. manufacturers to develop 

additional technologies that will reduce injuries to and fatalities of firefighters and building 

occupants. Medium Term

4.2.2.2 Tactics

• New tactical guidelines for fire departments to control and extinguish wind-driven fires in buildings 

– incorporating science-based guidelines for fighting these especially hazardous fires into fire 

department training programs will save lives and reduce property losses. Short Term

• Guidelines for improved fire ground operations and tactics developed from understanding of fire 

phenomena – while many current operations and tactics, such as hose stream and smoke venting 

are based on prior fire experience, science-based principles and computer modeling will enable 

better approaches to put the fire out more quickly with less water, control the spread of fire and 

smoke, and reduce the loss of property, all while exposing fewer firefighters to potential hazards. 

Medium Term

4.2.2.3 Training and Education

• Guidance from the study of current fire fighting tactics to develop an understanding of the fire 

behavior in the structure and interactions with fuels in the structure and that compose the 

structure. This information will also be used to examine new tactics or technologies to improve 

safety and effectiveness. Medium Term

• Guidance from the study of significant fire incidents – computerized simulations of such incidents 

will provide comprehensive "lessons learned" from actual fires, resulting in more realistic training of 

new firefighters, improved fire ground tactics, and reduced injuries, deaths and property damage. 

Medium Term

• Comprehensive computer-based firefighter training tool to teach firefighting strategies and tactics –

a firefighter trainer—similar to a flight simulator—will incorporate a wide variety of building and fire 

scenarios including multi-family residential and large commercial structures; advanced training via 

simulators will increase firefighter effectiveness, while reducing trainee exposure to hazardous fire 

conditions that historically has led to training injuries, and on occasion, fatalities. Long Term

4.2.2.4 Strategic Resource Utilization

• Metrics, developed with the input of fire service experts, to characterize fire service effectiveness 

and safety – validated metrics will enable focused measurement science activities and lead to 

focused project selection. Short Term
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• Validated computer models to quantify the impact of various fire service deployment configurations 

within a community - community risk models will allow fire departments to optimize deployment. 

Medium Term

4.2.2.5 Situational Awareness

• Evaluation metrics for collapse prediction technologies for firefighting operations in residential 

applications – this will reduce firefighter injuries and fatalities. Medium Term

• Real-time situational awareness systems that will provide firefighters with information and a 

warning prior to the onset of hazardous conditions such as structure failure or flashover* – these 

systems will provide both incident commander and firefighter with physiological† and fire 

environment data. Monitoring the exposure of each firefighter in real time, using integrated smart 

sensors, will enable an incident commander to fight the fire more effectively, while maximizing the 

safety level for all tasks. Long Term

4.2.3 Reduced Risk of Fire Spread at the Wildland-urban Interface

In Chapter 3, an overview of the negative impacts of WUI fires on the built and natural environments 

was given. The focus here is on mitigation of WUI fires in the built environment. This can be achieved 

through a number of approaches (in particular, refer to Figure 3-3):

• Fire Prevention in WUI Buildings and Communities

• Fire Protection Engineering in the WUI

• Response for Improved Fire Fighter Safety and Effectiveness, and People Evacuation

• Recovery Guidelines for WUI communities.

The highest priority research activities for these areas are listed below. 

4.2.3.1 WUI Fire Prevention

• Data to characterize WUI fire exposure conditions for building components, structures, and 

communities via data collection from WUI fire events – lessons learned will enable identification of 

designs that help structures survive fire exposure. Short Term

• A well-characterized and model standard ember source for exposing building components and 

vegetation to ignition and fire spread from embers - this will support development of standard 

exposure test for ignition and fire spread resistance. Short Term

 

* Flashover is a condition in which temperatures throughout a fire room exceed about 600 oC (110 oF) and the fire 

transitions from a single item burning to all combustibles in the room burning.

† Physiological data for a firefighter include heart rate, blood pressure, and core and skin temperatures.
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• Database (from laboratory experiments and field measurements) using standard test methods on 

the performance of materials, products and technologies to reduce the flammability of building 

elements – the database will provide information to homeowners, community planners and 

regulators, and builders on the ignition resistance of traditional and emerging materials, products 

and technologies to improve ignition resistance of buildings, critical information for the specification 

of standards and the design of fire resistant buildings. Medium Term

• Standard test methods for characterizing the resistance of building components (vents, roofing 

assemblies, glazing, etc.) and building materials when exposed to WUI fires – these will promote use 

of ignition resistant building products for WUI communities. Medium Term

• Database from laboratory experiments and field measurements on the ability of firebrands to ignite 

building components – flaming brands (or embers) are a principal way buildings are ignited; knowing 

how brands cause ignition is the key to the use of firebrand resistant building design in WUI 

communities. Short Term

• Validated computer models to simulate burning trees, shrubs, grass – these models provide 

predictions of characteristic heat fluxes on buildings to support the design of laboratory tests of fire 

resistant building materials. Long Term

• Benefit versus cost analysis tool that incorporates a range of recommended homeowner or 

community risk reduction actions – an economic tool will help communities optimize WUI fire 

prevention plans. Long Term

4.2.3.2 WUI Fire Protection

• Standard test method for ember ignition and fire spread. Short Term

• Passive fire protection technologies including development and implementation of advanced 

coatings; fire retardant additives; advanced design to harden vulnerable building elements such as 

windows and doors; fire resistant vegetation. Medium Term

• Active fire protection technologies including improved advanced fire control and suppression 

technologies for structures in WUI; next generation agents and technologies for WUI building fire 

protection including chemically advanced foams, gels, powders to reduce the flammability of 

landscaping, vegetation, and buildings. Medium Term

• The first computational tools that predict fire spread through WUI communities and surrounding 

vegetation – use of these tools for new and retrofitted WUI buildings and landscapes will 

significantly reduce design and construction costs to minimize fire losses. Medium Term
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• Best practices guidelines for construction and landscaping from the residential to community 

scales—for homeowners, community planners, and emergency responders—to assess and mitigate 

WUI fire risk – science-based guidelines will decrease the risk of structure ignition and ensuing 

damage, increase public safety, and preserve community infrastructure and the environment. Long 

Term

4.2.3.3 WUI Fire Response

• Database of vegetation and structure damages, and heat flux and firebrand exposure conditions 

from post-fire field studies and computer modeling of fire behavior in communities affected by WUI 

fires – the development of standard test methods and fire exposure severity mapping tools are 

needed to develop a technical basis for model codes intent to reduce structure losses; this database 

also forms the technical basis for more informed and effective decision making when preparing for 

and responding to WUI fires. Medium Term

• Develop equipment standards and standard operating procedures to address WUI fires. There are 

no WUI specific equipment and operating standards. Medium Term

• Characterize the WUI fire environment and develop measurement capability to evaluate personal 

protective equipment. Medium Term

4.2.3.4 WUI Fire Recovery

• Standardized, GIS-based, field data collection methods including hardware, software, field 

procedures and protocols, and training of field crews. Short Term

• A framework for a WUI fire exposure severity risk rating system – such a framework will provide 

standards organizations a way to develop technically-based standards for WUI communities, parcels 

and buildings.* Short Term

• Guidelines and field data collection methods for mapping the characteristics of structures and 

vegetation in WUI communities – Having the right information in a consistent and usable form 

enables state and local officials to more effectively prepare WUI communities. Short term

• Database of WUI fire disasters and failures - the database will serve as a public archival repository 

on hazard characteristics, the performance of WUI buildings and infrastructure, associated 

 

* A fire exposure severity zoning system would be similar to flood plain mapping and would drive building codes 

and standards requirements for construction in WUI areas. Established communities in each fire exposure zone 

would need to consider building retrofit, and community and parcel landscaping guidance to address fire hazards.
86

emergency response and evacuation procedures, and social and economic factors that affect predisaster mitigation activities and post-disaster response. Medium Term

4.3 NEXT PRIORITY AREAS GIVEN ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

The scope and depth of the national fire problem is immense as outlined in Chapter 2. The

measurement science outcomes listed in Section 4.2 above are designed to optimize impact on the 

national fire problem by attacking dominant aspects of the problem that are ripe for solution. Given the 

current funding profile for measurement science research, prioritization of activities is necessary. At the 

same time, if additional resources were available, the strategy outlined in this document would be 

accelerated, allowing realization of critical outputs and outcomes for the Reduced Risk of Fire in 

Buildings and Communities Goal, as prioritized within each of the sections below.

4.3.1 Reduced Fire Risk in Buildings

4.3.1.1 Next-generation Performance of Materials and Products

• Test methods and risk guidelines to ensure fire safety of a new generation of sustainable materials, 

products, and systems (e.g., refrigerants, appliances, energy-efficient buildings, etc.) – test methods and 

guidance is needed to ensure understanding of risk associated with commercialization of new 

technologies.

4.3.1.2 Safety of Building Occupants

• Technology to support rapid mass notification –broad base technology-neutral communication with 

individualized escape guidance helping occupants to avoid hazardous areas

4.3.1.3 Infrastructure Protection

• Guidelines and test methods to ensure cost-effective fire protection of the telecommunications and 

datacenter infrastructure – guidelines will improve fire protection of electronic communications 

facilities which are of vital importance during emergencies.

• Guidelines and test methods to ensure cost-effective fire protection of the transportation infrastructure 

– guidelines will improve fire protection of ports, tunnels, bridges and above-ground and underground 

train stations vulnerable to fire.

• Guidelines and test methods to ensure fire safety in buildings and infrastructure using alternative fuel

types such as batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, biofuels, natural gas, and other hydrocarbon based fuels -

guidelines and standard test methods will prevent safety from being an impediment to innovation and 

sustainability. 
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4.3.1.4 Next-generation Detection and Communications 

• Incipient detection and automated apparatus dispatch - reducing the time from the initiation of a 

fire to the dispatch of fire apparatus and personnel to a total of 90 seconds to be achieved by faster 

and more reliable sensing and automated call routing and dispatch. 

4.3.1.5 Engineered Fire Protection

• Guidelines to reduce the probability of compartment flashover by 90 % - this will be accomplished 

through systematic engineered fire protection combining (a) improved material and furnishing 

performance, (b) incipient fire detection and suppression, and (c) advanced fire service response. The 

impact will be a 50 % reduction in the overall fire burden.

• A systematic software tool for estimating the costs and benefits of installation of arc fault 

interrupters in residences for state and local community planners – this tool will facilitate informed 

decision making on the regulatory adoption of arc fault interrupters, which address electrical fire 

safety issues. 

• Guidelines and knowledge on the effectiveness of advanced and sustainable fire suppressants –

guidance on new suppressant technologies will ensure suppressant effectiveness.

• Standard test methods for robotic fire suppression: early and reliable sensing of incipient fires provides 

a means to suppress incipient fires before they become deadly.

4.3.1.6 Performance-based Design

• Stochastic risk methods to support performance based design calculations – PBD will reduce the 

cost of fire protection with understood levels of risk, while maintaining public safety.

4.3.1.7 Post-Incident Investigation

• Measurement science tools to improve determination of fire origin causality, patterns of fire growth and 

spread, and movement of occupants and firefighters – will ensure lessons learned from fire incidents 

are used as best practices for building design and firefighter response and inform building codes and 

standards development. 

4.3.2 Advanced Fire Service Technology

4.3.2.1 Equipment

• Advanced end of service life indicators - monitoring exposures of both PPE and firefighters to 

harmful conditions will provide useful information for retirement planning and budgeting of new 

equipment. 

• Performance evaluation methods for improved fire apparatus and other large equipment - nozzles, 

hoses, pumps, ladders, extraction equipment, vehicles, cooling stations, etc... are all subject to 
88

technological advancements that may need supporting measurement science to ensure a safer and 

more effective fire service. This may include advanced sensors which automate fireground data 

collection and then optimize and evaluate tactics and operations.

• Evaluation metrics for fire ground communication equipment – there are no performance standards 

for radios and other equipment that transmit signals, and the signal quality of existing equipment is 

unreliable. Better signal quality and ruggedness tests for communication equipment will result in a 

safer and more efficient fire service. 

• Performance evaluation methods for robotic equipment – robots are emerging as useful firefighting 

tools on several fronts. They can be sent into structures to analyze the fire environment and to 

conduct fire suppression, search and rescue, and other tactics in situations that would be unsafe for 

humans. 

• En route size-up technologies – fire service operations can be more effective if information needed 

for initial actions is sent to the IC and first out when the fire alarm is activated. 

4.3.2.2 Tactics

• New and improved ventilation and compartmentalization tactics – understanding the effects of 

various ventilation tactics in different scenarios will help firefighters make stronger decisions that 

are safer and deliver expected results. 

• New and improved fire suppression tactics - fire suppression tactics, both internal and external to 

the structure, have a significant impact on property loss. Understanding the benefits of different 

types of suppression agents and different means of applying them will contribute to firefighter 

effectiveness.

• Guidelines for identification of building construction type and potentially hazardous fire conditions –

new construction techniques and materials may affect the strategic and tactical options available to 

the IC. Pre-planning tools will facilitate decision making at an incident. 

• New tactics for new construction – over time, the nature of structure fires is changing as new 

construction techniques and materials come into use, which may also affect the strategic and 

tactical options available to the fire service.

• New and improved overhaul tactics - technologies that enable firefighters to ensure that the fire has 

been completely extinguished and hazards have been removed will contribute to the reduction of 

the number of re-ignitions and will ensure that the post-incident fire ground no longer poses a 

threat to the community. 
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• Provide science-based methods of identifying fire origin and cause – technology that enables 

consistent, physics-based analysis of fire origin and cause will give more credibility to future 

findings. 

• Develop and improve rapid intervention procedures – when firefighters are in trouble and need 

help, better methods and technologies for rescue are needed. 

• Develop new methods of search and rescue - technologies that support more accurate, thorough, 

and faster search and rescue operations will enable firefighters to save more civilians. 

• Development of post-incident analysis tools – tools that enable examination of certain fire 

conditions that were tracked over time, fire cause and origin, the interactions between or 

effectiveness of various tactics and/or strategies used, and knowledge of potential hazards 

encountered in the cleanup process will contribute to the safety and effectiveness of the fire service 

and provide a database that can be used for future planning. 

• Guidelines for tactical interoperability during mutual aid incidents- technology is needed to ensure 

that all parties are capable of operating together effectively.

• Guidelines for post-incident clean-up – new measurement science will be needed to understand the 

consequences of fighting fires in which materials are burning that have different, unusual, or 

unknown toxicity and fate. Also, new environmental regulations may require different tactics. 

• Development of physics-based tactical decision aids – intelligent systems that can monitor the fire 

environment and predict the optimum combination of tactical operations and timing will be of great 

importance to firefighter safety and effectiveness. 

• Guidelines for post-incident analysis tools - Improvements in the quality of information about the 

detailed impact of fire incidents can be used to shape the future of the fire service and the 

communities in which it operates. This information may include examination of certain fire 

conditions that were tracked over time, fire cause and origin, the interactions between or 

effectiveness of various tactics and/or strategies used, knowledge of potential hazards encountered 

in the cleanup process, lessons learned, etc. 

4.3.2.3 Training and Education

• Guidelines for fire behavior, ventilation and fire control knowledge and skills needed by fire fighters 

to perform their mission in the safest and most effective manner.
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• Guidelines for community education programs – science-based information that helps communities 

understand the important role the fire service plays in fire loss protection/prevention will improve 

the political viability of, and flow of resources to, fire departments. 

• Guidelines for fire investigators on fire dynamics, fire testing, and fire modeling knowledge needed 

to enable scientific assessment of fire patterns in a structure. 

4.3.2.4 Strategic Resource Utilization

• Development of community-scale resource allocation tools – GIS-based technologies that optimize 

coverage while conserving valuable resources will help the fire service and communities maintain an 

acceptable level of fire protection. 

• Guidelines for risk analysis tools for crew size – crew size and other strategic decisions depend on 

the nature of the risks involved, tools that enable risk to be assessed for potential incidents will 

streamline the response and target essential tactics. 

• National Fire Service Response Database – While national fire statistics such as NFIRS aggregate fire 

incident data, the fire service lacks standardized response-based data elements to evaluate 

response effectiveness. A national database will enable comparative analysis for development of 

best practices, early identification of trends, and performance metrics.

4.3.2.5 Situational Awareness

• Performance evaluation methods for firefighter location/tracking systems – enabling the IC to know 

the location of firefighters at an incident will improve the strategic and tactical decision making, and 

the ability to rescue firefighters and civilians. 

• Guidelines for operability and interoperability of communication equipment – there are two 

components of this outcome: determination of the communication hierarchy at incidents in which 

multiple responder organizations are participating, and the physical ability of the communication 

equipment to function reliably. Both components are necessary for effective, coordinated response 

to large incidents.

• Database on the thermal environment for body-worn sensors – sensors that are worn on the 

outside of fire fighter turn-out gear must be designed to function properly in adverse fire ground 

environments for improvements in personal protective equipment and situational awareness 

technologies to be implemented. 

• Database on the thermal environment for building sensors – sensors that inform firefighters of the 

condition of the fire ground (including the structure itself) must be designed to function properly in 
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adverse fire ground environments in order for improvements in situational awareness technologies 

and post-incident analysis to be implemented. 

• Database on the thermal environment for biometric sensors – biometrics sensors for firefighters are 

in the development stage. These sensors, and other equipment that might be worn under turn out 

gear, must be designed to function properly in adverse fire ground environments in order for 

improvements in personal protective equipment and situational awareness technologies to be

implemented. 

4.3.3 Wildland Urban Interface 

4.3.3.1 WUI Fire Prevention

• Innovative building materials, products, and designs that resist ignition and limit fire spread in the 

WUI - advanced materials for new construction and retrofit of structures and communities would 

reduce WUI fire losses. 

• Database of fuels and landscape characteristics across a range of WUI community types* - such a 

database would support the post-fire analysis of similar communities (since it is unlikely that burned 

communities will have been pre-fire surveyed) and provide inputs for fire behavior modeling for 

testing of risk reduction practices in realistic settings. 

• A database of large-scale laboratory measurements of fire behavior in vegetation with an imposed 

wind of characteristic wind speeds and gusts - key information on firebrand production (from 

structures and vegetation), surface to crown fire transitions, the influence of vegetative fuel 

treatments on fire transitions and firebrand production would support the development, and verify 

the effectiveness of, laboratory-scale standard test methods and structure scale fuel treatments.†

4.3.3.2 WUI Fire Protection

• Advanced fire protection technologies for building exteriors such as fire resistant building wraps and 

“smart” vents – such technologies would prevent ignition, reduce fire exposure, firebrand 

penetration, and structural ignition.

• Smart passive fire protection design of building elements that exploits intumescent materials – such 

designs would exploit the unusual expansion properties of intumescing materials upon exposure to 

heating.

• A portable WUI vegetation calorimeter - efficient measurement of flammability and, potentially, 

firebrand characteristics of vegetation (both wildland and ornamental) commonly found in WUI 

communities would support the development of laboratory test methods, input for fire behavior 

 

* It is anticipated that a trained and fully equipped field crew dedicated to data collection in high risk, 

characteristic, WUI communities that have not been burned would be needed to accomplish this output.

† The recently constructed Institute of Building and Home Safety (IBHS) wind tunnel appears to have the required capabilities to 

perform these experiments.
92

models, and the development of simple checklist type homeowner guidance regarding ornamental 

vegetation choices.

• Database of field-scale fire behavior and fuels using ground based and airborne measurement 

methods* - the resulting database would support development fire behavior and fuel modeling tools 

and GIS-based risk assessment tools for use in community planning and incident response.

4.3.3.3 WUI Fire Response

• Advanced fire service safety equipment and training for WUI fire fighting including advanced 

respirators, fire fighter locators, carbon monoxide warning systems, and advanced (breathable) 

protective clothing - advanced equipment would enhance the safety and effectiveness of WUI fire 

fighting.

• Advanced fire service response tactics for WUI fires – advanced tactics would enhance the safety 

and effectiveness of WUI fire fighting.

• Computer-based models to guide evacuation of communities threatened by WUI fires - computerbased modeling would enable effective evacuations.

• A database of field-scale wind measurements over a range of terrain and vegetation cover types 

using ground based and airborne measurements - strong ambient winds are a major driver of 

wildland and WUI fire behavior and large fires have potential to create winds that significantly alter 

the behavior of the fire; the database would directly support WUI fire model development for use in 

community planning and as an incident response tool.†

• Advanced WUI firefighter communication technologies including robust, reliable, standardized

communication systems that function in complex terrain – advanced communication technologies 

would enable communication among fire fighters on the ground and with incident commanders. 

• A suite of GIS based software tools including the ability to ingest various WUI community data from 

ground crew field collection and remote sensing, perform risk assessment, and provide input files 

for a range of fire behavior models – such tools would enable effective fire fighting response and 

prevention activities.

• Ground based unmanned vehicles – unmanned vehicles would enable safe and effective WUI 

firefighting.

 

* including measures of the fireline progression and intensity, terrain and fuel vegetation and structures maps, and 

firebrand characteristics and production rates for characteristic vegetative and structural fuels over a range of 

environmental conditions.

† complete datasets of wind fields over terrain do not exist. Especially useful would be wind measurements over a 

volume rather than at point locations from towers. Airborne platforms such as unmanned aerial vehicles may be 

particularly well suited for this.
93

• A significantly enhanced NOAA Fire Weather Prediction System, that captures with high resolution 

the winds and fire-atmosphere interactions – this will provide on-the-ground, real-time look-ahead 

predictions of the local weather and fire behavior to support fire suppression planning, community 

evacuation, and firefighter safety. Long Term

4.3.3.4 WUI Fire Recovery

• Rebuilding structures and communities with advanced new materials that provided improved fire 

resistance.

• Advanced fire resistant designs for rebuilding structures and communities.

• Post-fire analysis of actual WUI fire events - actual events provide a testbed for the determination of 

what worked and what did not work, providing lessons learned on WUI fire prevention and 

protection technologies, as well as WUI fire response.
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5 IMPACT PLAN

5.1 CHANGES TO PRACTICE

There are many ways to impact the national fire problem. Some of them include the following: 

engineering tools, changes in tactics, best practices for community managers, guidelines or best 

practices for engineers and architects, procurement specifications, new or improved SRMs, industry 

practice or manufacturing process, standards of care, and decision support tools.

5.2 STANDARDS AND CODES STRATEGY

Staff activism in domestic and international standards and codes development has been an effective 

means to translate NIST measurement science outputs into tangible and long-lasting impacts on the 

national fire problem. Historically, the spectrum of staff participation in these activities has varied 

between being highly organized and being based on individual initiative. Looking ahead, the intent is to 

integrate the best features of these two models, taking advantage of the enthusiasm of skilled 

individuals in a planned, targeted program. This section provides an overview of the codes and 

standards strategy for the Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Goal. 

For clarity, there are three types of arenas for these activities.

• Building Codes. These are laws which govern the construction, alteration, movement, enlargement, 

replacement, repair, equipment, use and occupancy, location, maintenance, removal and 

demolition of buildings or structures. Building codes typically address permanent components of 

the building, such as the structural members, architectural features or installed fire protection 

systems. 

• Fire Codes. These are laws which govern matters affecting or relating to structures, processes and 

premises from the hazard of fire and explosion arising from the storage, handling or use of 

structures, materials or devices; from conditions hazardous to life, property or welfare and the fire 

protection of buildings once the buildings are occupied.

• Standards. These are documents which prescribe requirements for performance or design of a 

material, methods for conducting tests, or procedures for installing or maintaining equipment. 

Standards become required when cited within a building code, fire code, or other state law. 

In short, codes tell you what you must do; standards tell you how you must do it. Since the U.S. 

Constitution does not explicitly assign the authority to regulate building construction and maintenance 

to the federal government, under the 10th Amendment, this authority resides with the states. As a 

result, the U.S. building codes and standards system is a complex combination of state and local 

regulations, each of which derives from a model code. 
95

While there have been multiple model building codes in the past, today the dominant model code for 

new construction or major building modification is the International Code Council's International 

Building Code. Each state or local jurisdiction may elect to adopt the model code in full or to modify the 

model code to reflect local priorities or special hazards. Local modifications may differ substantially 

from one jurisdiction to another. 

Hundreds of standards are typically referenced within the model code and are not usually modified 

during the local adoption process. Standards Developing Organizations (SDOs) include ASTM 

International, Underwriters Laboratories (UL), American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), 

National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), the Society of fire Protection Engineers (SFPE), Federal , 

state and local government, and industry associations, such as the National Electrical Manufacturers 

Association (NEMA) and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers 

(ASHRAE). Standards must be referenced by text in a code and only the section or topic that is 

referenced by specific code language is enforceable, not the entire standard.

There are also numerous product-specific standards that are not cited in building codes. Most of these 

address fire performance of items not attached to structures, such as furnishings and clothing. 

Sometimes these standards are used, because a code sets forth a requirement that a product or 

equipment must be listed or approved.

To reduce the costs of and losses from unwanted fires, the scientific basis for technically sound codes 

and standards are needed through the following venues:

• Domestic fire safety standards and code provisions. These promote protection for people 

where they live, work, travel, and visit. Fire codes and standards also provide the basis for an 

orderly U.S. marketplace for manufacturers and consumers of goods. 

• International standards.

*

 These documents are important as they have a direct influence on 

international business competition. Standards that are technically sound and that address the 

proper fire behavior properties are (1) less likely to restrict exports of U.S. products unfairly and 

(2) more likely to ensure that imported products actually measure up to U.S. safety 

requirements.

• Regulatory rulemaking by key states and other Federal agencies. These include the Nuclear 

Regulatory Commission, Consumer Product Safety Commission, the Department of Housing and 

Urban Development, and others. Key states, such as California, Texas, and others, have 

significant influence in regulatory rulemaking conducted by other states.

The process of achieving fire safety progress requires three stages of organizational commitment:

Stage 1. Developing the measurement science to initiate or support a particular fire safety 

improvement and translating this into usable code or standard format.

 

* Often referred to as standards from ISO and IEC but also any standard that is accepted globally.
96

Stage 2. Performing additional research to address issues arising during standardization 

technology development, and code implementation phases. Examples of these include 

difficulties in reproducing the test apparatus, and simplifications of t he test 

procedure to enhance the reproducibility of the test results.

Stage 3. Following implementation of the standards and code provisions, identifying external 

changes that have the potential to negate the safety gains. Examples of these include 

conflicts with environmental concerns over the means for products to meet the 

standard, new products entering the marketplace, and manufacturers identifying ways 

to circumvent the standard, i.e. less fire-safe ways to "pass the test." This stage often 

occurs distinctly later than the implementation of the original standard or code 

provision.

Figure 5-1 is a qualitative timeline for this three-stage commitment, which takes place over years and 

requires various amounts of resources and follow-up activities. The timing and the relative size of the 

efforts involved in the various stages will vary from case to case.

Figure 5-1: Qualitative timeline of the three stages of codes and standards implementation.

A further consideration in technology implementation commitment involves the collaboration and 

partnership of organizations involved in approval of a code or standard and those who will be involved 

in its implementation into practice and/or enforcement. The NIST Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and 

Communities Strategy relies on forging and strengthening these relationships. Such classes of partners 

include:

• Product manufacturers and their trade associations;
97

• Leading architects and engineers in the fire safety industries, such as those represented by SFPE 

and AIA;*

• Standards and model code development organizations in the U.S. and internationally, such as 

ICC, NFPA, and ISO; ASME, ASTM, ASCE, NEMA;

• Non-NIST researchers and practitioners in building materials, fire protection, risk analysis, and 

structural performance;

• Emergency responders;

• Code officials;

• Federal regulators, such as NRC, CPSC, EPA, GSA, HUD, and DOE;

• Insurers;

• Product testing and certification organizations, including members of the North American Fire 

Testing Laboratories Consortium such as FM Global, Underwriter’s Laboratory, Intertek, and 

Southwest Research Institute;

• Government planners; and

• Facility owners and managers.

Measurement science is critical in the development of codes, standards, and regulations and historically 

occurs through the aforementioned three stage approach. Participation in these development 

processes also ensures ongoing technical dialogue directly with key stakeholders. Oftentimes, the 

discussions and debate conducted in committee meetings, hearings, or during preparations for meetings 

identify emerging problems, new technologies, or regulatory gaps which are oriented towards 

measurement science solutions. As a consequence, consortia and partnerships may be formed during 

codes, standards, or rulemaking which support measurement science in direct (monetary) or indirect 

(assistance-in-kind) modes. This critical two-way dialogue serves to increase the likelihood that research 

conducted in the Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Goal will solve problems of direct 

interest to stakeholders, while mitigating the U.S. fire burden.

In summary, efforts comparable to that devoted to measurement science are needed to translate NIST 

research into tangible fire protection improvements. The process for evaluating choices of fire safety 

initiatives necessitates comprehensive discussion of such efforts prior to reaching a decision as well as 

periodically during the three stages of organizational commitment. Key inputs to this process are a 

comprehensive project plan and performance metrics. Participation in the various development 

processes will evolve as the needs for codes and standards change. And the level of participation will 

vary in scope, depending on the urgency and importance for a standard or code, from monitoring 

 

* A list of acronyms and their definitions is provided in the preface of this document.
98

progress in the development of a standard committee, to participating in a committee as a member, as 

a task leader, as a chair or as a convener.*

 The level of participation must be considered strategically. 

The standards strategy for the Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Goals are outlined 

below in terms of the three focus areas and sub-areas. 

5.3 STRATEGY FOR REDUCED FIRE RISK IN BUILDINGS

As discussed in the previous section, the implementation strategy for codes and standards involves 

numerous partnerships. The Reduced Fire Risk in Buildings strategy will leverage numerous 

implementation partners, including: (a) building and fire code developers, (b) regulators, (c) standards

developers, and (d) industry in the two thrust areas:

• To reduce residential fire losses, and

• To enable cost-effective fire safety solutions by enabling performance-based design.

5.3.1 Building and Fire Codes

National model codes are a primary means to leverage the results of NIST measurement science. There 

are several ways to translate research results to the model codes:

• Service on model code† technical,‡ administrative,§ or ad-hoc committees,**

• Presentation of measurement science to committees or assemblies for consideration in support 

or opposition to specific code change proposals

5.3.2 Standards

Standards on the following technologies are critical to successful implementation of this roadmap:

• It is expected that the following standards will be developed or improved to reduce residential 

fire losses: ASTM E 2187 (Standard Test Method for Measuring the Ignition Strength of 

Cigarettes) and ISO 12863 (Standard test method for assessing the ignition propensity of 

cigarettes)

• ASTM E5.15 (Subcommittee on Fire and Interior Furnishings and Contents) and the Consumer 

Product Safety Commission to develop upholstered furniture flammability standards

 

* Proper training must be provided to participants in particular those in leadership positions.

† Model building codes include the International Building Code (International Code Council) and NFPA 5000. 

‡ An example of service to a standing committee would include an appointment to the ICC Means of Egress 

Committee, which has jurisdiction for the egress and accessibility requirements in the International Building Code.

§ An example of an administrative committee would be appointment to NFPA Standards Council, which oversees 

NFPA codes/standards development activities, administers rules/regulations, and acts as an appeals body.

** An example of an ad-hoc committee would be an appointment to the ICC Code Technology Committee. 
99

• UL 0217 (Smoke Detectors and Alarms) and NFPA 72 (National Fire Alarm and Signaling Code) 

will be updated to enable early and accurate sensing of unwanted combustion products 

It is expected that the following standards will be developed or improved to enable full implementation 

of performance-based design:

• comprehensive suite* of International Organization for Standardization (ISO) combustion 

product toxicity standards,

• ASTM International (ASTM) E1355 (Standard Guide for Evaluating the Predictive Capability of 

Deterministic Fire Models) and a companion standard for egress models for ASTM E05-33 

Committee on Fire Safety Engineering,

• International Code Council (ICC) International Building Code and National Fire Protection 

Association (NFPA) 101 (Life Safety Code) will reflect changes in the national elevator code 

American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME A17.1) .

• Develop performance guidance considering fire as a structural design load ASCE 7. 

5.4 STRATEGY FOR ADVANCED FIRE SERVICE TECHNOLOGIES

For the fire service, strategic priorities for consensus standards and code activities are focused on

standards to improve the safety and effectiveness of firefighters and include work on the selection, care, 

and maintenance of key firefighting equipment as well as fire ground tactics and operations. More 

specifically, high priority standards activities include thermal exposure test methods for existing selfcontained breathing apparatus (SCBA), standardized alarm sounds for Personal Alert Safety System 

(PASS) devices, durability test standards for firefighter protective turn-out gear, standard tactics for nonmechanical ventilation of structures during fires, and test methods for the high temperature 

performance of portable radios.

Stakeholders play a large role in standards developing organizations such as NFPA and ASTM. Some of 

the key stakeholders, which have significant influence on the development of standards and codes for 

the fire service, include fire service professional organizations (IAFC, NVFC, NFFF, ISFSI, FDSOA, etc), 

firefighter unions, government organizations such as DHS, USFA, NIST, DOL/OSHA, and NIOSH, 

manufacturing interests, military/defense, university researchers, and certification organizations.

5.4.1 Firefighting Equipment

The NFPA 1900 series of standards, guides, and best practices includes 30 documents that cover a very 

wide range of firefighter equipment and protective clothing, from automotive fire apparatus to 

 

* Five documents are in various stages of development, including: ISO/DIS 12828-1 Method validation for fire gas 

analysis – Part 1: Limits of detection and quantification; ISO/CD 29903 Comparison of toxic gas data from different 

tests; ISO/DIS 29904 Aerosols generation and measurement in fire; WD 26367-2 Assessing the adverse 

environmental impact of fire effluents– Part 2: Environmental Toxic Effect; and ISO/TR 26368 Mitigation and 

containment of fire-fighting water run-off.
100

electronic safety equipment to protective clothing for emergency medical operations. NFPA 1221 is a 

standard on emergency services communications systems. ASTM provides specifications, guidance, and 

test methods for specific fire testing activities. For example, ASTM F1060-01 is a test method for 

thermal protective performance of materials for protective clothing for hot surface contact. The highest

priority standards work in this area includes:

• Convective oven and radiant panel lens test procedures for SCBAs are needed for National Fire 

Protection Association’s (NFPA) 1981 Standard for Open-Circuit SCBA for Emergency Services.

• Alarm sound standards for PASS devices need to be incorporated into NFPA 1982 Personal Alert 

Safety Systems.

• Protective turn-out gear durability standards are included in NFPA 1971 Standard for Protective 

Ensembles for Structural Firefighting and Proximity Firefighting.

• Protective ensembles for structural firefighting and proximity firefighting (NFPA 1971). 

Measurement science for stored thermal energy of turnout gear garments is under stage 1 

development.

• Ventilation tactics to be included in NFPA 1410 Initial Emergency Scene Operations

Other important standards work is needed in the firefighting equipment area to ensure fire service 

safety and effectiveness, including:

• Personal protective equipment (ASTM E54-04). Test methods for firefighter respirators, protective 

clothing using reactive cooling, and firefighter locator technologies using radio frequency 

identification (RFID) are in stage 1 development.

• Protective clothing and equipment (ASTM F23). Ongoing stage 2 input is needed on existing heat 

and thermal test methods.

• Open-circuit self-contained breathing apparatus (SCBA) for emergency services (NFPA 1981). Stage 

1 measurement science is needed for face piece performance in rough-duty environments.

• Personal alert safety systems (NFPA 1982). Stage 1 measurement science is needed for optimization 

of alarm sound characteristics and also for PASS devices that transmit RF signals. Stage 2 research 

has been completed for device performance in high heat environments, and this work has now 

moved into a stage 3 phase.

• Umbrella standard on all fire ground electronic safety equipment (Draft NFPA 1800). Stage 1 

measurement science is needed for minimum performance metrics and test methods.

• Thermal imaging cameras (NFPA 1801). Stage 3 work is needed to support running routine test 

methods at commercial testing labs.

• Radios (NFPA 1801). This standard when it is time to begin document development.

• Firefighter location/tracking systems (NFPA 1801). Stage 1 work is needed to support the 

development of appropriate test methods.

• Operational equipment (ASTM E54-08). Stage 1 development of test methods is needed to evaluate 

the performance of radio communication links used in urban search and rescue robots.
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5.4.2 Safe Staffing and Fire Ground Operations

The highest priority work in this area is to enable ventilation tactics which are part of NFPA 1410, Initial 

Emergency Scene Operations. The possibility of convening standards activities in firefighting tactics 

needs to be explored as there is a gap in this area.

Other important work is needed in this topic area. For example, work is needed in NFPA 1710 and 1720, 

standards on organization and deployment of fire suppression operations and special operations by 

career and volunteer fire departments, respectively, addresses the challenges and hazards faced by 

today's firefighters and special operations professionals. NFPA 1620 is a standard on pre-incident 

planning, while NFPA 1670 is a standard on operations and training for technical search and rescue 

incidents. 

In addition to the high priority standards topics identified above, there are other important standards 

activities in the fire service area. These include firefighter training procedures and guidelines, fitness, 

performance metrics, test methods, and incident command, which are discussed below.

5.4.3 Training Procedures and Guidelines

The NFPA 1400 series of standards, guides, and best practices includes: recording and reporting of fire 

incidents; training center design and construction; live fire training; respiratory protection training; 

marine vessel fires for land-based firefighters; rapid intervention crews; initial emergency scene 

operations; vehicle operations; and dwelling safety survey procedures. Research is needed to support 

Live Fire Training (NFPA 1403). Stage 2 measurement science is needed, which derives information from 

real-scale fire experiments and computer-based fire models to ongoing standard development activities. 

5.4.4 Fitness

The NFPA 1500 series of standards, guides, and best practices includes: occupational safety and health; 

infection control program; comprehensive occupational medical program for fire departments; healthrelated fitness programs; and rehabilitation process for members during emergency operations and 

training exercises.

• Measurement science is needed to support fire service training organizations that provide training 

manuals, model standard operating guidelines, conferences and web-based training to transfer 

science based technology and fire dynamics information to the fire service and the fire investigation 

community.

• Fire and Explosion Investigation (NFPA 921). The process and methodologies of investigation have 

been in development for more than 20 years, however the science based support for many 

components of the fire investigation process are in still in early stage 1 research. Further real scale 

fire experiments and continued development of predictive methods are needed. 
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5.4.5 Incident Command

The NFPA 1000 series of standards covers professional qualifications for a number of firefighter 

positions, including incident management personnel. NFPA 1201 is a standard on providing emergency 

services to the public. ASTM F1422-08 provides a standard guide for using the Incident Command 

System (ICS) framework in managing search and rescue operations. NIST is not currently involved in 

incident command research.

5.5 STRATEGY FOR REDUCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD AT THE WILDLANDURBAN INTERFACE

Work on standards and codes can be divided into three categories: building materials, the residential 

structure and parcel, and the community. These correspond to increasing physical scale. Standards for 

building materials focus on preventing ignition (i.e., limiting the response of the material to a given 

exposure); at the residential and community scales standards focus on reducing the exposure (i.e., 

magnitude and duration of heat and firebrand fluxes). The objective of the codes and standards is to 

reduce the likelihood of structure ignition due to firebrand and heat flux exposure from burning 

vegetation and by rapidly developing a test for structural fire resistance during WUI fires. Support of 

targeted local code activities (in California, for example) is used as a model to inform national standards 

and codes efforts. The highest priority standards and code activities are listed below in terms of building 

materials, residential structures and parcels, and WUI communities. 

5.5.1 Standards and Codes for Building Materials

These standards and codes are focused on the ignition response of a given building material (e.g., wall) 

and/or the ignition prevention capability of a given building component (e.g., screen to block firebrand 

penetration through a vent) when subjected to heat and/or firebrand fluxes. Development of codes and 

standards in this area requires laboratory facilities that recreate realistic exposure conditions due to 

heat and firebrand fluxes under different wind conditions. An understanding of what constitutes realistic 

exposure conditions requires field measurements during prescribed fires and wildfires, post-fire studies 

of communities burned by WUI fires, and predictions from computer models – all of these are in the

initial stages of development. An ASTM E05 subcommittee has recently been established to assess the 

state of knowledge of WUI exposure conditions. 

High priority standards and codes for reducing the risk of fire in the WUI include:

1. ASTM E5.14.03 committee: new standards on firebrand penetration of vents; firebrand ignition 

of roofing, siding, window glazing, and decks; window vulnerability to firebrand assault. Stage 1 

measurement science support is needed on this topic. 

2. ICC WUI Building Code: science-based performance test methods are needed to 

replace/improve existing test methods for building materials exposed to WUI fires, which 

currently cite ASTM E119, UL263, ASTM E1354, and FM4470. Stage 1 measurement science 

support is needed on this topic.
103

3. California State Building Code Chapter 7A: Improved standards for materials and construction 

methods for building exteriors exposed to wildfire. Stage 1 measurement science support is 

needed on this topic.

5.5.2 Standards and Codes for Residential Structure and Parcel

These standards and codes are focused on reducing the exposure of a structure to heat and firebrand 

fluxes (e.g., proven landscaping practices) and improving structure design to reduce ignitions (e.g., deck 

placement and design). This requires a database, at the parcel-scale, of fire behavior (exposure 

conditions) and structure response. No such database exists. Such a database could be constructed from 

pre-fire measurements of parcel and structure attributes, post-fire fire measurements of fire behavior 

and structure response, laboratory experiments, and computer predictions. Reliable data collection 

requires proven field worthy software and hardware and standardized field protocols. Findings from the 

field can guide targeted laboratory experiments to investigate structure vulnerabilities. Examples of high 

priority standards and codes activities in this area are:

1. NFPA Forest and Rural Fire Protection and ICC WUI committees: new standards for field data 

collection; improved standards for residential landscaping and building placement and design 

(NFPA 1144; ICC International Wildland Urban Interface Code). Stage 1 measurement science 

support is needed on this topic.

2. California State Fire Code (Chapter 86B): Improvements to existing standard 86B (Material and 

construction methods for exterior wildfire exposure). Stage 1 measurement science support is 

needed on this topic.

3. Office of the State Fire Marshall (OFCM), California: Improvements to guidelines for residential 

setback and defensible space management. Stage 1 measurement science support is needed on 

this topic.

4. Community outreach programs are in need of Stage 1 research. Here, support and 

improvements are needed to FIREWISE (consortium of wildland fire organizations and federal 

agencies), FireSafe (Fire Safe Council of California), Firesmart (Canadian fire officials), and 

Firefree (Safeco Insurance, industry, fire agencies, private citizens) are needed. 

5.5.3 Standards and Codes for Wildland–Urban Interface Communities

These standards and codes are focused on reducing the exposure of a community to heat and firebrand 

fluxes from WUI fires spreading through both vegetation (wildland and residential) and structures at the 

community scale. This requires an understanding of how fire behavior is affected due to fuel 

management (e.g., modification of wildland vegetation bordering a community) and community design 

(e.g., open space size and location). Reduction of structure ignitions, improved community evacuation, 

and appropriate placement of safety zones are examples of desired objectives. Achieving this requires 

significant advancement in standardized community data collection hardware, software, and field 

protocols for post-fire study; fire behavior measurements in prescribed fire and wildfire settings; and 
104

computer models capable of predicting firebrand and smoke transport and fire spread through the 

complex WUI fuel structure. High priority standards and codes activities in this area are:

1. NFPA Forest and Rural Fire Protection and ICC WUI committees: improved standards for field 

data collection and community design (NFPA 1141; ICC International Wildland Urban Interface 

Code). Stage 1 measurement science support is needed on this topic.

2. California State Fire Code (Chapter 86A): Improvements to existing standard 86A (Requirements 

for wildland-urban interface fire areas). Stage 1 measurement science support is needed on this 

topic.

5.6 METRICS TO MEASURE PROGRESS

Here, an attempt is made to answer the question, “How do we know if we’re making progress?” There 

are two types of metrics: constituent metrics and global metrics. Constituent metrics are specific 

measurement science outcomes which affect a significant part of the overall U.S. fire burden. For 

example, advanced smoke alarms can have a constituent metric to reduce time to detection of an 

unwanted fire by one order-of-magnitude. The constituent metric focuses the project on a component 

of the overall problem and is generally one step removed from impact on the U.S. fire problem. Global 

metrics measure the total U.S. fire burden and are used by NIST to assess large-scale trends and 

programmatic progress. The metrics used in this report are derived from NFPA’s annual report Total 

Cost of Fire in the United States. 

The first step to being able to recognize progress is a comprehensive project plan that begins with the 

Stage 1 measurement science and proceeds through to realization of impact. While the three focus area 

objectives are linked, progress will be independently measured for each of these areas. During Stage 1 

research, progress is monitored as completion of, e.g., construction of a computational model, 

completion of a set of experiments, completion of significant research results in reports or archival 

journals. Progress in measurement science takes many forms, including:

• Enabling the development or improvement of codes and standards,

• Enabling the development or improvement of best-practices, standard operating 

procedures, or specifications, 

• Enabling the development or improvement of new technologies,

• Developing or improving new standard reference materials,

• Enabling the development or improvement of manufacturing processes, and

• Published research or software that is used and cited.

In the short-term, contributions to reduce the risk of fire spread in buildings and communities can be 

evaluated based on the constituent metrics given above, which are seen as a stepping stone to achieving 

the Reduced Fire Risk in Buildings and Communities goal. In the long term, however, the most tangible

and objective marker of success is an observable improvement in the national fire statistics. If a direct 

connection can be shown between measurement science results (constituent metrics) and real-world 

impact (global metrics), then the following ought to occur:
105

• Reduced civilian and firefighter fatalities,

• Reduced civilian or firefighter injuries,

• Improved cost-effectiveness of building fire protection systems, and

• Reduced property loss and other costs enumerated in the NFPA core costs of fire analysis.

It is widely recognized, however, that real-world impact may take decades to discern, as the results of 

measurement science are implemented as best practices, standards and codes, and new products 

pervade U.S. residences, commercial buildings, transportation vehicles, etc. 
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6 SUMMARY

6.1 NIST’S ROLE

This roadmap was developed to provide a shared vision for communication, bring the limited available 

resources to bear on the U.S. fire burden in a focused manner for enhanced effectiveness, provide a 

basis for strategic planning, and identify gaps in knowledge and measurement science that hinder the 

development of critical enabling technologies. History has shown that the field of fire safety has 

demanded and spawned technological advances. Tens of thousands of lives have been prolonged 

because of such classic inventions as the automatic sprinkler, halogenated fire suppressants, fire 

retardants, the rollable fire hose, and the smoke detector. Today, the cultural and technological climate 

in which fire safety is provided is experiencing change as never before. New products, materials, 

technologies, advances in computing, advanced information analysis and availability, and environmental 

constraints are driving new concepts for preventing and mitigating fires as prevalent approaches are 

strained. This changing landscape requires constant observation and re-assessment of the most critical 

measurement science research needs. By necessity, this roadmap will need to evolve as technical 

progress continues, as new problems emerge, and as the world of fire safety progress changes. This 

document ought to be periodically reviewed to ensure that it is current.

Based on input from NIST staff and stakeholders nationwide, this roadmap identifies a set of strategic 

research priorities in the year 2012. The priorities provide a blueprint to attain the long-term vision that 

unwanted fire be removed as a limitation to life safety, technical innovation, and economic prosperity in 

the United States. In this roadmap, a systems approach to fire protection is implicit. Problems are 

broken down to root causes and multiple approaches are proposed to attack specific issues. 

In an effort to address the most pressing fire problems, the strategic plan outlined here emphasizes

three focus areas:

• Reducing the risk of fire hazard in buildings,

• Advancing firefighter technologies, and

• Reducing the risk of fire spread in wildland-urban interface communities.

This roadmap is technology centric and focuses on the measurement science needed to enable the most 

promising technologies to reduce the preventable burden of fire in these three focus areas: 

• To reduce the risk of fire hazard in structures, strategic approaches focus on preventing and 

mitigating the fire and mitigating exposure of people. The priority measurement science 

outcomes focus on the following approaches:

o Engineered Fire Protection, 

o Safety of Building Occupants,
107

o Advanced Flammability Performance of Materials and Products,

o Next Generation Reliable Detection of Incipient Fires, and

o Performance-based Design.

• To advance firefighter technologies, strategic approaches focus on issues for the community, 

the fire department, and the firefighter before, during, and after a fire incident. The priority 

measurement science outcomes focus on the following approaches:

o Firefighting Equipment,

o Firefighting Tactics,

o Firefighter Training and Education, Firefighter Situational Awareness, and

Firefighting Resource Allocation.

• To reduce the risk of fire spread in WUI communities, strategic approaches emphasize WUI fire 

mitigation technologies through consideration of structural fire prevention, structural fire 

protection, advanced fire service response, and post-fire recovery with a focus is on WUI 

communities and surroundings, structures, and parcels in the WUI, and WUI building materials. 

The priority measurement science outcomes focus on the following approaches:

o Prevention of Fire in WUI Buildings and Communities,

o Fire Protection Engineering of WUI Buildings and Communities,

o Response for Improved Fire Fighter Safety and Effectiveness, and People Evacuation, 

and

o Recovery Guidelines for WUI communities.

For each of these approaches, a series of strategic outputs and outcomes are identified. The emphasis is 

on outputs that advance existing and emerging technologies, which address significant and preventable 

parts of the national fire burden. To successfully achieve the outputs and implementation of the 

technological solutions, a series of measurement science hurdles must be overcome. Research activities 

are prioritized for each of the fire protection focus areas in terms of this needed measurement science. 

The timeline for the research priorities are broken into three categories, namely short, medium and long 

term, varying from less than 3 years, 3 to 8 years, and greater than 8 years, respectively. The prioritized 

outcomes stretched over the next two decades represent a realistic opportunity to significantly impact 

the national fire burden. As the timeline and strategy have been formulated in terms of the current 

funding profile, the research priorities reflect a balance of scientific promise and cost. 

6.2 COLLABORATION

While measurement science research has a distinct function in furthering fire protection and public 

safety, it is a supporting role. Measurement science does not promulgate building codes or establish 

product standards, does not encompass compliance testing, does not include testing or manufacturing

fire protection products, and does not provide education or promote the use of such products in the 
108

marketplace. Measurement science enables the technical basis for these functions, which are critical 

endeavors of the greater fire protection community. 

There are many players in the fire protection community, including industry, academia, non-profits, 

government agencies, and professional, educational and standards organizations, each with their own 

roles, responsibilities, and authorities. NIST’s role is to conduct and support fire-related measurement 

science. The entire community of fire safety organizations needs to work together if the vision of a firesafe future is to be realized. Working together, the greater fire, manufacturing, and user communities

will be able to ensure that research results have meaning, are implemented, and ultimately enable a 

fire-safe future. The full impact of measurement science results cannot be achieved without the 

important activities of partner organizations, including:

• Public education (e.g., Fire Safety Council),

• Professional education and training (e.g., SFPE),

• Standards development (e.g., ASTM, ICC, ISO, NFPA, SFPE),

• Code development (e.g., ICC),

• Regulation (e.g., CPSC, GSA, NRC, state governments),

• Product testing and certification (e.g., NAFTL),

• Product and material manufacturers and suppliers,

• Fire service (e.g., IAFF, IAFC, IFF, NVFC, IAA, NASFM, NFFF, CFSI, Vision 20-20, CALFire),

• Government organizations (e.g., CALFire, ATF, CDC, CPSC, DHS, DOE, GSA, NASA, NIOSH, NIST*

, 

NRC, NWCC, USFA, and USFS),

• Academia (e.g., WPI, UMd, University of Edinburgh, Lund, etc.), and

• Technology research and development organizations (e.g., FM Global, Underwriters 

Laboratories, United Technologies, IBHS, Sandia National Labs, IAFSS, FORUM, SP, BRE, BRI, 

NRC-Canada, materials industry).

6.3 INNOVATIVE AND EXPLORATORY RESEARCH

Measurement science in the area of fundamental and applied fire research has a record of innovation 

over the last three decades that has facilitated a safer world (as described in Chapter 2.1). Some of the 

most innovative work has revolutionized fire safety: 

• The concept of oxygen consumption calorimetry, and the ensuing invention of the cone 

calorimeter;

 

* Including the many experts within NIST beyond the Engineering Laboratory, who provide expertise in chemistry, 

electronics, metallurgy, polymers, information technology, physics, economics, and law enforcement standards.
109

• Nanoparticle fire retardancy, the first truly new approach to less fire-prone products in half a 

century;

• Science-based analysis of fire incidents, providing lessons learned for the fire service and code 

officials;

• The low Mach number formulation of the Navier Stokes equations and their implementation in 

the form of efficient and validated fire field models for engineering analysis; and

• Smokeview, a revolutionary visualization tool of the output of ever more complex fire models;

To continue to impact the national fire problem, NIST’s Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and 

Communities strategy is committed to exploring new measurement science approaches, measurement 

methods, and technologies. Innovation is not just complementary to the role of measurement science, 

it is an essential ingredient. 
110

APPENDIX A THE U.S. FIRE BURDEN

A.1 EXPLANATION OF THE VALUE OF THE U.S. FIRE BURDEN 

The total value (cost plus loss) of U.S. fire burden in 2008 is estimated at about $310 billion (in 2008

dollars)* with fires in structures accounting for $185 B, wildland-urban interface fires accounting for $14 

B, vehicle and outdoor (e.g., trash fires) and other fires accounting for $6 B, and the fire service 

accounting for $109 billion with the component costs presented in Table A-1. The estimation method 

employed here is primarily based on analysis by Hall.2

 A scaling procedure114 is used to adjust NFIRS 

incident data113 to be consistent with NFPA survey statistics, with a few deviations and additions made

here. An uncertainty analysis is also provided with the range of the U.S. fire burden estimated to vary 

from $231 billion to $461 billion given current measurement techniques, reported data, and fire risks. 

The details of these analyses are documented below. 

Missing are those unknown or currently unquantifiable costs and losses. This is, perhaps, of greatest 

concern with wildland-urban interface fires. Thus, the values presented are only for those known and 

quantifiable values based on current measurement techniques. All dollar values shown are in 2008 

dollars, unless otherwise noted.

A.1.1 Structure Fires

Structure fires are defined in NFIRS 5.0 as those with an incident type 111 through 123. In 2008, an 

estimated 515,000 structure fires occurred (including fixed mobile homes, apartments and single family 

dwellings) using a scaling procedure detailed by Hall and Harwood.114 Associated with those fires were 

2900 civilian fatalities and 14 960 injuries. Hall assumed another 6.4 % civilian fatalities and 9.2 % 

civilian injuries were unreported. 2

 Given the value of a statistical life of $5 M and injury of about 

$238,000 (the per injury value of $166,000 was inflated using the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer 

Price Index from 1993 dollars to 2008), as used by Hall,2 the estimated loss of life and limb is valued at 

$15.4 billion for civilian fatalities and $3.9 billion for civilian injuries. 

For structures, property losses are estimated at $14.1 B. This figure was also produced using 2008 NFIRS 

data and the scaling procedure detailed in Hall and Harwood.114 Hall assumed that 5.3 % of property 

losses go unreported. 2

 In addition, the $2.5 billion in indirect losses reported in Hall2 has been added to 

structure fires. Hall2 breaks out indirect losses based on the following property classes: 65 % 

manufacturing and industrial properties; 25 % public assembly, educational, institutional, store, and 

office properties; 10 % residential, storage, and special-structure property; and 0 % for vehicle and 

outdoor fires. Thus, all of the indirect costs were assumed to apply to structures.

 

* This differs somewhat from the value provided by Hall (2009), primarily due to detailed accounting associated 

with the cost of volunteer firefighters and WUI costs. Details are given below.
111

The insurance estimate presented by Hall has been distributed between fire incident types based on 

their relative property losses reported in NFIRS.

2

 Insurance related to structure fire is estimated at 

$12.2 B. The building construction for fire protection presented by Hall is attributed to structures.2 This 

cost is estimated at $62.7 B. 

Hall2 reports on five categories of costs that are not considered “core” costs. These categories consist of 

the costs of meeting fire grade standards for manufactured equipment ($28.5 B), fire maintenance 

($10.3 B), retardants and product testing associated with fire safety ($4.0 B), disaster recovery plans 

($0.9 B), and preparing and maintaining standards ($0.3 B). These figures are estimated by inflating 

Meade’s original estimates into current dollars.115 In Meade’s analysis, the two biggest cost factors, the 

costs of meeting fire grade standards for manufactured equipment and cost of fire maintenance, are 

computed as a function of statistics published by the Census Bureau* and the Bureau of Economic 

Analysis.† For both these inputs, figures for 2008 are available,‡,§ so these costs deviate from those 

reported by Hall.2

 Based on the 2008 data, the cost of fire protection of equipment and standards is 

estimated at $73.8 B, with $53.0 billion attributed to the costs of meeting fire grade standards for 

manufactured equipment, and with $15.6 billion attributed to the cost of fire maintenance. The 

$29.8 billion increase over Hall’s estimate2 suggests that in 2011, 68 % more fire grade equipment and 

fire maintenance in structures than was observed than in 1990.

A.1.2 Outdoor Fires or Natural Vegetation Fires

Natural vegetation fires are defined in NFIRS 5.0 as those with an incident type of 140 through 143. In 

2008, an estimated 364,000 natural vegetation fires occurred using a scaling procedure detailed by Hall 

and Harwood.114 Associated with those fires were 18 civilian fatalities and 257 civilian injuries. The loss 

of life and limb are valued at $0.1 billion for civilian fatalities and $0.1 billion for civilian injuries. 

Property losses are estimated to have been $3.1 B. (These include $1.4 B, the losses associated with the 

2008 California wildfires,

116,** added to the scaled loss estimate.) No indirect losses are included. 

Assuming 13 % of the insurance costs reported in Hall2 occurred due to wildland-urban interface (WUI) 

fires (the percentage of property and content losses from natural vegetation fires reported in NFIRS), 

natural vegetation fires accounted for $1.5 billion of the net insurance cost for fire protection costs. †† 

 

* Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining and Trade Corporations—First Quarter 1990.

† Survey of Current Business, July 1990 (reported private purchases of producer durable equipment by type).

‡ U.S. Census Bureau, Fourth Quarter 2008 Data from the Quarterly Financial Report U.S. Manufacturing, Mining, 

and Wholesale Trade Corporations.

§ Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Economic Accounts, National Income and Product Accounts, Private Fixed 

Investment in Equipment and Software by Type.

** The 2008 California wildfires resulted in damages significantly higher than the 5-year average (about double). 

Wildfire damages appear to vary greatly from year-to-year. 

†† While Hall’s insurance cost estimates are based on fire policy, multi-peril homeowner, and commercial and fireowner policy premiums (e.g., automobile policies are not considered), a method was used to allocate these costs 
112

While the $62.7 billion spent on fire protection of building construction, it may limit structure damage 

resulting from a WUI fire—meaning some portion of this amount should accrue to this incident 

category. However, this is not well understood. Communities do invest in fire protection technologies 

to reduce their risk to wildland fires. This includes, for instance, investments into fuel treatments 

around WUI communities. The cost of fire protection around constructed facilities is estimated at 

$1.7 B. This estimate is based on the assumptions that 10 % of the at-risk WUI communities* invest in 

risk mitigation strategies, whether formally through programs such as Firewise Communities, or

informally on their own initiative, and that the average household spends about $1200 in time, labor, or 

direct expenditures each year. This estimate is expected to grow each year as more at-risk communities 

participate and as the number of households in the at-risk area of the WUI increases.

According to the Blue Ribbon Panel Report on WUI Fire, average annual federal ($1.9 B), state ($0.9 B)

and local firefighting costs ($0.5 B) from 2000 to 2006 was $3.3 billion (ICC 2008), an increase from a 

$1.4 billion annual average in 1990 to 2000.29 In 2006, $2.7 billion was appropriated to the U.S. Forest 

Service and Department of Interior for wildfire management activities.†

 These activities included fuel 

reductions, restoration projects, and fire preparedness. These activities are estimated at $0.8 B.‡

 The 

2006 dollar estimates are inflated to 2008 dollars.

The economic impacts of WUI and wildland fires are not well understood. These can include losses 

related to business interruptions, tourism and sales affects, as well as impacts to utility and 

infrastructure losses. Based on data from two recent studies evaluating the costs and losses of large 

wildfires, a multiplier was developed to scale property losses into total economic impacts.§,117,118 Thus, 

the economic impact of WUI fires is estimated at $3.5 billion.

A.1.3 Vehicle, Outside, and Other Fires

This category includes all other fires not already classified as structure or natural vegetation. This 

includes NFIRS’ major incident categories such as fire in “mobile property (vehicle) fires,” “outside 

rubbish fires,” “special outside fires,” “cultivated vegetation,” “crop fires,” ”fires,” and “other.” In 2008, 

an estimated 570,000 other fires occurred using a scaling procedure detailed in Hall and Harwood.114 

 

across the different fire (ignition) types (structure, outdoor and natural fires, vehicle and other fires) to recognize 

that some structure fires result because of other fires.

* At-risk WUI communities are defined as those with an estimated mean fire return interval of 20 years or less. See 

Thomas and Butry, 2010. 

† Up to 95 % of the U.S. Forest Service’s large wildfire suppression expenditures are used to protect WUI areas 

(USDA 2006).

‡ The difference between $2.7 B spent for all federal wildfire management and $1.9 B spent on federal firefighting.

§ The ratio of total loss to property loss was developed and used as the multiplier. Based on the data, the ratio 

ranged from 2.1 to 3.0, meaning total losses ranged from 2.1 times to 3.0 times known property losses. The 

pairwise correlation between total losses and property losses was 0.93, which demonstrates a high degree 

correlation between the two values.
113

Associated with those fires were 402 civilian fatalities and about 1500 civilian injuries. Using the same 

procedure detailed above produces cost estimates due to loss of life and limb at $2.1 billion for civilian 

fatalities and $0.4 billion for civilian injuries. Property losses are estimated to have been $1.8 B. No 

indirect losses are included. Assuming 10 % of the insurance costs reported by Hall2 occurred due to 

vehicle, outside, and other fires (the percentage of property and content losses from these fires 

reported in NFIRS) , these fires accounted for $1.5 billion of the net insurance cost for fire protection 

costs. The cost of building construction for fire protection has not been estimated for these fires. 

A.1.4 Fire Service

Hall estimated that 105 firefighter fatalities and 79 700 firefighter injuries occurred in 2008. Based on 

the value of a statistical life and injury used for civilians, firefighter fatalities cost society $0.5 billion and 

injuries cost $19.0 billion in 2006. Hall estimates the cost of career fire departments at $39.7 B. 

Because there are considerably more volunteer firefighters than career, the value of their donated time 

is a significant cost to society. Hall estimates this value at $138 B, which is based on a 4-to-1 ratio 

between volunteer and career firefighters.119,*

 This analysis uses a more conservative estimate based 

on the 2.6-to-1 ratio implied in Karter,7 which uses a different methodology than that found in Hall, and 

a range of values related to the worth of donated time.†

 Based on the range of two estimates, the cost 

of volunteer fire department time is estimated as $50.0 B.

A.2 UNCERTAINTY AND MEASUREMENT PRECISION

Table A-1 provides point estimates for each of the cost and loss items. All of the estimates are subject, 

to varying degrees, to uncertainty and measurement error. In addition, Table A-1 only provides 

estimates for known costs and losses, and for those where a value can be estimated in a defensible 

manner. Missing are those costs and losses that are not well understood or that are difficult to measure 

(e.g., WUI fires and ecosystem service degradation). The known and well-defined statistics are based on 

survey sample data that has been used to compute population estimates. For these, measures of 

uncertainty or sample variation are not well known. This section attempts to evaluate the degree of 

uncertainty underlying these estimate, where possible, to provide an indication of the potential size of 

the fire burden (i.e., evaluate the order of magnitude of particular estimates).

A.2.1 Structure Fires

Previously discussed were two methods for estimating the cost of fire protection of equipment (inflating 

and re-calculating Meade’s estimates).115 The two methods differed in assumptions related to the 

portion of fire grade equipment found in constructed facilities. Perhaps the more important issue 

regarding Meade’s first pass estimates is that they rely on a small survey of experts from 20 years ago. 

How well these estimates reflect the true costs is unknown. Costs related to fire protection in 

 

* The 4-to-1 ratio is the result when determining the number of non-metropolitan firefighters needed to create the 

same level of fire protection coverage in metropolitan areas.

† See the discussion below in Section A.2 on Uncertainty and Measurement Precision.
114

constructed facilities also falls into this category. The science-base for these estimates is over 30 years 

old. Assuming the costs of fire protection in equipment and in building construction are 68 % larger (see 

Section A.1.1) than as derived by the inflation method used in Hall,119 in which the fire burden resulting 

from structure fires may range from $130 billion to $230 B. 

Table A-1. Value of the U.S. Fire Burden (2008).

Category Item $ Billion

Structure Fire

Civilian Fatalities 15.

Civilian Injuries 3.9

Property Losses 16.

Net Insurance Cost 12.

Fire Protection in Constructed Facilities 62.

Fire Protection (Equipment & Standards) 73.

Sub-Total 184

Wildland-Urban Interface Fire

Civilian Fatalities 0.1

Civilian Injuries 0.1

Property Losses 3.1

Net Insurance Cost 1.5

Fire Protection around Constructed 1.7

Suppression 3.5

Fuel Treatments, Preparedness, 0.9

Economic Impacts 3.5

Sub-Total 14.

Vehicle, Outside & Other Fire

Civilian Fatalities 2.1

Civilian Injuries 0.4

Property Losses 1.8

Net Insurance Cost 1.5

Sub-Total 5.9

Fire Service

Firefighter Fatalities 0.5

Firefighter Injuries 19.

Career Fire Department Costs 39.

Volunteer Fire Department Costs 50.

Sub-Total 109

Total 314
115

A.2.2 Natural Vegetation Fires

Given the recent emergence of wildland-urban interface fires, these estimates are likely the most 

affected by uncertainty and measurement error. A Monte Carlo simulation was developed to assess the 

uncertainty. Suppression costs, amount of suppression resources used to protection WUI areas, 

property losses, and the property loss/total loss multiplier were varied to produce a range of fire burden 

estimates related to natural vegetation fires. Simulated distributions and input parameters were 

derived from a number of sources.

Suppression costs follow a uniform distribution, with a minimum of $0.5 billion and a maximum of $4.3 

B. The range was derived by varying the $3.3 billion in baseline suppression costs (see above) 

proportionally with the variation demonstrated by U.S. Forest Service’s suppression expenditures from 

1994 to 2009.120 The amount of suppression resources used to protect WUI areas follows a triangular 

distribution, with a minimum of 33 %, most likely of 50 %, and a maximum of 95 %.121 Property losses 

follows a maximum extreme distribution (with truncation at zero), with a likeliest value of $0.8 billion 

and the 90 % percentile of $2.5 billion with the distribution taken from Ref. 122. Consistent with the 

property loss to total loss multiplier described above, this multiplier follows a lognormal distribution 

with the 50 % of 2.1 and a 90 % of 3.0. 

A total of 10,000 simulations were completed. The mean WUI-based portion of the U.S. fire burden is 

estimated at $6.9 B, with a median value of $6.5 B. The minimum value is $2.7 billion and the maximum 

value is $28.4 B. The 2006 dollar estimates are inflated to 2008 dollars for the range shown below.

A.2.3 Fire Service

As discussed in the above Fire Service cost and loss section, two methods were used to estimate the 

donated value of volunteer firefighter time (in addition to the method used in Ref. 119). The first was 

based on a computed annual cost of career firefighter time multiplied by the number of volunteer 

firefighters. Hall reports that 87 % of the total career costs is for personnel cost ($34.5 B).2

 Karter 

estimated that 321,700 firefighters in the U.S. are career firefighters.7

 Thus, on average a career 

firefighter costs about $92,500 per year. Karter also reported the number of volunteer firefighters in 

the U.S., at about 827,000.

7

 Based on these numbers, total volunteer personnel cost is $76.5 B, i.e., the 

cost society would bear should career departments replace volunteer departments. The second method 

multiplies total firefighting volunteer hours (assuming all volunteer are full-time [2080 hour/year]) by 

the average value of volunteer time ($20.25/hour).123 This method yields an estimate of $34.8 B. Thus, 

the Fire Service portion of the fire burden ranges from $94.0 billion ($39.7 B + $34.8 B + $19.5 B) to 

$197.2 B ($39.7 B + $138 B + $19.5 B), with $135.7 B ($39.7 B + $76.5 B + $19.5 B) as an additional data 

point.

A.2.4 Total Range of U.S. Fire Burden

Based on the ranges provided above, plus the baseline for vehicle, outside, and other fires (no 

uncertainty analysis was performed), the U.S. fire burden ranges from $231 B to $461 billion given 

current measurement techniques, reported data, and fire risks.
116

A.3 WUI FIRES: AN EMERGING PROBLEM

Unlike the structure fire problem, the wildland-urban interface fire problem appears to be getting 

worse, in terms of structures lost and acres burned. 95 Using forecast methods, estimates of the WUI fire 

problem are shown in Figure A-1. The baseline analysis (i.e., the medium forecast) demonstrates that 

the WUI fire burden will likely double over the next decade.

Low-, medium-, and high-range forecasts were made by estimating the annual growth in structure losses 

and annual growth in fire protection costs around WUI communities (i.e., firewise79 and other types of 

guidance). Economic losses (indirect losses), societal losses from fatalities and injuries, insurance costs 

were all assumed to grow proportionally with structure losses. The at-risk WUI housing stock was 

assumed to grow at a 2 % annual rate.124

Figure A-1: Forecasted WUI Fire Burden (2011-2025).

Baseline values (2011) were derived as follows. Total losses were based on average property and crop 

damages reported in the National Climate Data Center’s Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics from 

1998-2005, and adjusted by the economic multiplier described in Section A.1.2. Spending on fire 

suppression and fire protection of constructed facilities were set to the values shown in Table A-1. Costs 

related to fuels management were not included. Net insurance costs were set to $0.4 billion to more 

accurately reflect WUI fire damage levels from a more representative year (non-2008). 
117

The medium-range (baseline) structure loss forecast used a 7 % annual growth rate, a value that was 

derived from fitting an exponential trend-line to the decadal ICC data (1960 to 2000; R2 = 0.97). The 

low-range annual growth was set to 5 %. The high-range annual growth rate was set to 10 %.

The medium-range forecast fire protection costs around WUI communities used a 10 % annual growth 

rate. While an exponential model fitting Firewise expenditures (2003 to 2009) fit well (R2 = 0.97), the 

annual growth rate was 46 %, which was determined as unsustainable over the long-term. To be 

conservative, 10 % was used. The low-range annual growth was set to 5 %. A high-range annual growth 

rate was set to 15 %.

Federal, state, and local wildfire expenditures (suppression, fuels management, preparedness, 

restoration) were set to their forecasted 2011 combined estimate (ranging from $5.2 billion to $6.9 B). 

Thus, the forecasted WUI fire burden, shown in Table A-1, is conservative, as the loss estimates assumed 

a relatively small increase in wildfire expenditures. 
118

APPENDIX B REDUCING THE U.S. FIRE BURDEN 

The total value (cost plus loss) of the U.S. fire burden is the main focus of Appendix A. In 2008, it is

estimated that the U.S. fire burden was about $310 billion (in 2008 dollars) with fires in structures 

accounting for $185 B, wildland-urban interface fires accounting for $14 B, vehicle and outdoor (e.g., 

trash fires) and other fires accounting for $6 B, and the fire service accounting for $109 B. The

component costs are presented in the text of Appendix A and in Table A-1. An uncertainty analysis is 

also provided with the range of the U.S. fire burden estimated to vary from $231 billion to $461 billion 

given current measurement techniques and reported data. All dollar values shown are in 2008 dollars, 

unless otherwise noted. 

The goal of this Roadmap is to provide a pathway to reduce the U.S. fire burden. In order to understand 

the impact that measurement science could play in reducing the fire burden, it is useful to estimate the 

portion of the U.S. fire burden which is preventable. That is the focus of this Appendix. 

The Total Fire Burden is the sum of all costs and losses associated with fire. The costs are expenditures 

used to prevent or mitigate the losses from fire. The losses include economic losses (direct and indirect) 

and the monetized social value of fatalities and injuries. There are many other costs, which contribute to 

the total fire burden, including the net insurance costs, fire protection costs, career and volunteer fire 

department costs and wildland fire expenditures. The total fire burden is estimated as $314 B. The 

components of the total fire burden tabulated in Table A-1 (Appendix A) are reproduced in Table B-1

below. Some parts of the fire burden are preventable, whereas other parts are not preventable as 

explained below. 

The Preventable Fire Burden is the sum of all costs and losses associated with the total fire burden, 

which could be avoided (reduced) by advancements in measurement science. The preventable fire 

burden can be estimated as the product of the expected fire burden with the avoidable fraction for each 

component of the fire burden. While some components of the fire burden are largely not preventable, 

much of the U.S. fire burden, including direct and indirect economic losses and the monetized social 

value of fatalities and injuries, can be reduced by improving the prevention, control, and response to

unwanted fires. This roadmap highlights the measurement science approaches and technologies 

needed (see Chapters 3 and 4 above) to reduce the preventable fire burden. The total preventable fire 

burden is estimated as $102 billion or about one-third of the total fire burden.

The Non-Preventable Fire Burden is the difference between the total fire burden and the Preventable 

Fire Burden. The non-preventable fire burden can be thought of as those fire protection costs, which 

are required to maintain the current level of life safety and those losses, which are, for example, 

associated with events beyond control. Measurement science cannot immediately enable elimination of

100 % of the preventable national fire burden. Historical precedent suggests that the impact of 

strategically planned measurement science can be significant, but is finite and depends on many factors 
119

including the multiplicity and complexity of specific components of the fire problem, the effects of 

economic, social, political, and technical drivers of various parts of the fire problem, and the appearance 

of new and emerging fire problems. The total non-preventable fire burden is estimated as $212 billion 

or about two-thirds of the total fire burden. Examples of non-preventable losses and costs are described 

in this appendix. 

The estimated values of the avoidable fraction and preventable fire burden costs for each of the major 

components of the U.S. fire burden are estimated in Table B-1 and discussed below. Estimates of the 

avoidable fraction for components of the U.S. fire burden are estimated to take on values ranging from 

0 to 1. Table B-1 shows that in aggregate, the estimated value of the preventable fire burden is about 

one-third of the total U.S. fire burden. 

There is a distinction between preventable fires and preventable burden. Building on past successes, 

this roadmap emphasizes measurement science that improves life safety and reduces losses. While 

total societal costs are a central consideration in this roadmap, the emphasis is on improved 

measurement science that 

• leads to improved life safety (reduced injuries and fatalities) at reduced societal spending 

associated with fire prevention and protection,

• leads to improved fire safety for flat or unchanged societal spending, or

• leads to a flat or unchanged level of fire safety at reduced societal spending.

Assuming that the measurement science conceived in this roadmap is successfully completed, this 

Appendix provides a rough estimate of its anticipated impact, enabling technological solutions that 

address each of the components of the preventable fire burden associated with structure fires, wildlandurban interface fires, the fire service, and other or outdoor fires. 

For each component of the U.S. fire burden, estimates in the sections below quantify how the 

preventable burden of fires could be reduced. The values are not based on reference documents as no 

such documents exist. Instead, the values are estimates based on engineering judgement, which 

includes an understanding of the fire problem and possible technological solutions. Subtleties such as 

coupling and interaction among the various problems and solutions are not addressed, as such as 

analysis would add little value and could obscure the fact that the results are inexact.
120

Table B-1: Value of the US Fire Burden, Avoidable Fraction and Preventable Fire Burden (2008).

Category Item Total Fire 

Burden 

($ Billion)

Avoidable 

Fraction

Preventable 

Fire Burden 

($ Billion)

Structure Fire

Civilian Fatalities 15.4 1 15.4

Civilian Injuries 3.9 1 3.9

Property Losses 16.6 1 16.6

Net Insurance Cost 12.2 0 0

Fire Protection in Constructed Facilities 62.7 0.2 12.5

Fire Protection (Equipment & Standards) 73.8 0.2 14.8

Sub-Total 184.6 63.2

WildlandUrban 

Interface Fire

Civilian Fatalities 0.1 0.9 0.1

Civilian Injuries 0.1 0.9 0.1

Property Losses 3.1 0.9 2.8

Net Insurance Cost 1.5 0 0

Fire Protection in Constructed Facilities 1.7 0.5 0.9

Suppression 3.5 0.1 0.4

Fuel Treatments, Preparedness, 

Restoration

0.9 0.25 0.2

Economic Impacts 3.5 0.9 3.2

Sub-Total 14.4 7.7

Vehicle, 

Outside & 

Other Fire

Civilian Fatalities 2.1 1 2.1

Civilian Injuries 0.4 1 0.4

Property Losses 1.8 1 1.8

Net Insurance Cost 1.5 0 0

Sub-Total 5.8 4.3

Fire Service

Firefighter Fatalities 0.5 0.9 0.5

Firefighter Injuries 19.0 0.9 17.1

Career Fire Department Costs 39.7 0.1 4.0

Volunteer Fire Department Costs 50.0 0.1 5.0

Sub-Total 109.2 - 26.6

Total 314.0 - 101.8
121

B.1 REDUCING THE PREVENTABLE BURDEN OF STRUCTURE FIRES

In this section, an accounting is made to quantify how the preventable burden of structural fires could 

be reduced by about one-third, emphasizing the application of promising measurement science as 

discussed in Chapters 3 and 4 to address key aspects of the structural fire problem. Referring to 

Table B-1, a reduction in the value of the structural fire burden will require significant reductions in the 

number and severity of structural fires. A detailed accounting of the avoidable fraction, the preventable 

fire burden, and the anticipated impact of this roadmap is described below in terms of the most fruitful

measurement science areas to enable the reduction of the structural fire burden.

B.1.1 Avoidable Fraction

The estimated avoidable fraction for each of the major components of the U.S. fire burden are 

estimated in Table B-1 and discussed immediately below. 

B.1.1.1 Civilian Fatalities and Injuries

Within the context of current social expectations, measurement science is needed to eliminate ignition 

sources, reduce the ignition propensity of furnishings and building contents, limit the flammability of 

post-ignition items, and effect advanced suppression and control of the fire. To do this, the severity of 

all fires must be reduced. It is assumed that this strategy will reduce losses from all types of fires, 

including child-playing fires and intentional structure fires, which account for a significant number of 

civilian fire fatalities and injuries.125,126 

B.1.1.2 Property Losses

Given that structure fires are generally preventable through the methods described above. There are 

some property losses that may not be avoidable, but they are relatively small in terms of the fire loss 

profile. Sprinklers, for example, while effective in achieving positive life safety outcomes, can induce 

fire-related water damage in structures. 

B.1.1.3 Net Insurance Cost

The net cost of insurance is another component of the total fire burden that is not preventable. The net 

cost only includes the operating expenses and profit associated with an insurance company providing 

the insurance. The assumption is that even as the number of fires decrease with a subsequent decrease 

in insurance claims, the total insurance premiums may decrease, but the net cost of insurance 

companies provide will not decline. The cost of the property loss is included as a separate line item 

listed as the cost of property losses. The property loss includes not only the insured property loss, but 

also the uninsured property losses. Therefore, the net insurance costs are not considered a preventable 

cost. 

B.1.1.4 Fire Protection in Constructed Facilities

Fire protection in constructed facilities is a major contributor to the fire burden. It is critical to fulfilling 

the public expectations for basic life safety outcomes. Costs involve a long list of important fire 

protection items, including the cost of fire protection equipment such as sprinklers, fire alarm systems, 
122

testing of commercial products to specific fire safety standards, business opportunity costs such as lost 

use of building floor space to stairwells, sprayed on fire resistant materials for protection of steel 

building elements, installation and maintenance costs of fire extinguishers, and so on. Total fire 

protection expenditures can be reduced by technological innovation, redundancy elimination, and 

performance-based design methods which tailor fire protection resources to match risks, all while 

improving life safety outcomes. Presuming that the current level of life safety must be ensured, only a 

fraction of these costs are avoidable. Based on engineering judgement and an analysis of the magnitude 

and types of costs involved, a value of 0.2 is assigned as the avoidable fraction for this item as shown in 

Table B-1.

B.1.1.5 Fire Protection (Equipment & Standards)

Furnishings, building elements, and infrastructure generally require compliance with one or more 

standard test method or certification process. These test methods are specific to components or 

assemblies. They are developed by numerous standards developing organizations (NFPA, ICC, ASTM, 

ISO, UL, FM, for example) as well as voluntary industry standards or practices. Infrastructure needed to 

conduct standardized tests include equipment, personnel, and materials to be tested. Developing and 

maintaining consensus standards consumes time and resources. Based on engineering judgement, it is 

estimated that about 20 % of total invested costs could be achieved through improved measurement 

science to eliminate redundant or poor-performing standards or tests, improve the efficiency of the 

testing protocols, or improving the scientific basis for the standards.

B.1.2 Reducing the Preventable Burden of Building Fires

The total fire burden associated with structure fires in the U.S. is nearly $185 billion annually. Table B-1 

shows that roughly $60 billion or one-third of the structure fire burden is preventable. To address this 

problem, there would have to be significant measurement science advances in two areas, as described 

in Chapter 3, including effective strategies for (1) preventing and managing a fire and (2) managing those 

exposed to a fire. The cost-effectiveness of fire protection and life safety issues are a concern in both 

commercial and residential buildings. Systematic consideration of how to intervene in the fire timeline is 

a key part of the analysis. 

To prevent the fire before a would-be incident and to mitigate the hazard during a fire event, several 

approaches are important as discussed in Chapter 3, including:

• Reducing ignition at the source and/or nearby items (or preventing secondary 

ignition),Improving detection including the sensitivity and reliability of detection and recognition 

of fire in its early stages in order to initiate suppression or containment systems,

• Decreasing the fire hazard by controlling the rate of fire growth and the spread of flames and 

smoke through the use of improved materials and products,

• Mitigating the growth and spread of the fire through use of engineered fire protection systems, 

and
123

• Performance-based design methods to maximize design flexibility while minimizing the cost of 

installed fire protection.

To address the exposure of people and structural assemblies to a fire, several approaches may be

helpful, including:

• Improving detection including the sensitivity and reliability of detection and recognition of fire in 

its early stages in order to alert the occupants promptly,

• Assuring adequacy of the egress capacity relative to demand through efficient building design 

and effective emergency management, 

• Performance-based design methods to maximize design flexibility while minimizing the cost of 

egress and structural systems, and

• Fire resistance of structural systems and assemblies to ensure appropriate design performance 

during a fire.

B.1.2.1 Prevention and Mitigation

Below, an accounting is made to quantify how the preventable burden of fire in buildings could be 

reduced, emphasizing the application of promising measurement science as discussed in Chapters 3 and 

4 to address key aspects of the US fire problem: 

• Cigarette Ignitions: Reduced-ignition-propensity (RIP) cigarettes may reduce cigarette-related 

ignitions and consequent fires, injuries, deaths, and property loss by 50 % (NFPA Fact Sheet*

). 

As discussed in Section 3.3.3, cigarettes ("smoking materials") stand out as a leading fire ignition 

source in the US, accounting for approximately one-fourth of the fire deaths and one-tenth of 

the injuries.35 Advances in this technology through measurement science could result in savings 

of approximately:

o 50 % of the approximately 700 annual cigarette-related fire deaths,

o 50 % of the roughly 3,500 annual cigarette-related fire injuries, and 

o 50 % of the roughly $800 M of direct property loss.

• Residential Upholstered Furniture: Improved ignition resistance and reduced flammability of 

residential upholstered furniture may reduce injuries and deaths by 25 % through improved 

barrier material performance, reduced flammability foam, and/or improved fire standards. This 

could result in savings of approximately:

o 25 % of the roughly 500 annual residential upholstered furniture related fire deaths,

o 25 % of the roughly 1400 annual residential upholstered furniture fire-related injuries, 

and 

o 25 % of the roughly $4000 M of direct property loss.

 

* http://www.nfpa.org/assets/files//PDF/smokingfactsheet.pdf
124

• Cooking: Improved safety performance of cooking appliances (such as automatic heat source 

cut-off switches or over-the-range suppression devices) may reduce injuries and deaths by 10 % 

(NFPA Fact Sheet*

). This could result in saving approximately:

o 50 of the 500 annual cooking related fire deaths,

o 50 of the 500 annual cooking fire injuries, and 

o $8 M of the $76 M direct property loss.

• Space Heaters: Improved safety performance of portable space heaters may reduce injuries and 

deaths by 10 % (NFPA Fact Sheet*

). This could result in saving approximately:

o 49 of the roughly 490 annual space heater related fire deaths,

o 225 annual space heater fire injuries, and 

o $46 M of direct property loss averted.

• Mattress and Bedding: Improved ignition resistance and reduced flammability of mattresses and 

bedding may reduce injuries and deaths by 10 % through improved barrier material 

performance, reduced flammability foam, and/or improved fire standards. This could result in 

savings of approximately:

o 40 of the 400 annual mattress and bedding related fire deaths,

o 90 of the roughly 900 annual mattress and bedding -related fire injuries, and 

o $40 M of direct property loss averted.

• Open Flame and Intentional Fires: Improved ignition resistance and reduced flammability 

residential upholstered furniture may reduce injuries and deaths by 25 % through improved 

barrier material performance, reduced flammability foam, and/or improved fire standards. This 

could result in saving approximately:

o 43 of the 430 annual open flame fire deaths,

o 200 annual mattress and bedding related fire injuries, and 

o $90 M of direct property loss averted.

• Once a fire has ignited and begins to spread, fire safety may be improved by limiting the growth 

and spread of fire by design of material properties which limit the peak HRR of burning objects 

or through improved suppression, including widespread implementation of residential sprinkler 

systems and novel suppression technologies. This could result in saving approximately:

o 240 of the 2,400 annual fire deaths not prevented through reduced ignitions,

o 1,100 annual fire injuries, and 

o $1,300 M of direct property loss averted.

o $700 M of reduced cost of installed fire protection through performance-based design 

methods which creates safety-equivalent solutions at reduced cost.

• Early detection of fires may improve fire safety by providing more timely notification to 

occupants and fire department responders. More reliable detection will reduce the likelihood of 

the detector being removed due to false alarms and reduce the number of unnecessary 

 

* Hall 2009, page i. 
125

emergency responses. This could result in saving approximately:

o 240 of the 2,400 annual fire deaths not prevented through reduced ignitions,

o 1,100 annual fire injuries, and 

o $300 M of direct property loss averted.

o $500 M of reduced cost of installed fire protection through performance-based design 

methods which creates safety-equivalent solutions at reduced cost.

• Mitigating combustion products or controlling the flow or accumulation of smoke and other 

combustion products may reduce occupant exposure to toxic gases and limit damages due to 

smoke spread. This could result in saving approximately:

o 240 of the 2,400 annual fire deaths not prevented through reduced ignitions,

o 1,100 annual fire injuries, and 

o $660 M of direct property loss averted.

o $100 M of reduced cost of installed fire protection through performance-based design 

methods which creates safety-equivalent solutions at reduced cost.

B.1.2.2 Addressing Exposure of People and Structural Assemblies to Fire

There are three primary societal burdens associated with structure fires: civilian injuries and deaths,

*

the direct cost of property losses, and reducing the cost of installed fire protection.†

 Each is considered 

separately below: 

• Tools and best practices to better manage large incidents may reduce losses during large fire 

incidents through improved situation awareness and knowledge. This could result in saving 

approximately:

o 29 of the 570 annual fire deaths which result from non-residential fires,

o 135 annual fire injuries, and 

o $100 M of reduced cost of installed fire protection through performance-based design 

methods which creates safety-equivalent solutions at reduced cost.

• Adequate egress provisions which incorporate emerging technologies for people movement and 

development of technical basis for existing egress technologies can improve fire safety through 

more rapid, available, and cost-effective building evacuation. This could result in saving 

approximately:

o 20 of the 570 annual fire deaths which result from non-residential fires,

o 100 annual fire injuries, and 

 

* Injury statistics are not always as available as fatality statistics. It is assumed for simplicity that there are 4.6 injuries per fire 

death and that the relationship between injuries and deaths is constant across the fire threat profile. This assumption, while 

limited, should be correct to first-order.

† A civilian injury or death should be attributed to a single cause. An effort was made to limit “double-counting” the statistics 

(in other words, this is an analysis which “couples” the fire problem, allowing victims to be saved through a hierarchy: first 

through fire prevention, then by detection and suppression or reduced fire spread, and then through evacuation). 
126

o $3,000 M of reduced cost of installed fire protection through performance-based design 

methods which creates safety-equivalent solutions at reduced cost.

• Development of novel performance-based fire safety design solutions can reduce the total cost 

of construction by 0.5 % of the total cost of construction. This could result in saving 

approximately:

o $5,000 M of reduced cost of installed fire protection through performance-based design 

methods which creates safety-equivalent solutions at reduced cost.

• Developing a technical basis for structural response to fire conditions can reduce the cost of 

construction through more cost-effective design and construction methods. This could result in 

saving approximately:

o $100 M of reduced cost of installed fire protection through performance-based design 

methods which creates safety-equivalent solutions at reduced cost.

B.1.3 Summary of the Strategy to Reduce the Preventable Burden of Structural Fires

The total fire burden associated with structure fires in the U.S. is nearly $185 billion annually, and 

roughly $63 billion or one-third of the structural fire burden is preventable. Through the targeted 

measurement science plan described above, there would be a significant decrease in the number and 

severity of building fires. Table B-2 below summarizes this section and the accounting how fatalities and 

injuries could be reduced by about 40 %, and how the preventable burden of structural fires could be 

reduced by about $21 billion or about one-third in a generation, through an emphasis on the application 

of targeted measurement science. In addition, a proportionately smaller number and severity of fire 

service injuries would be expected as the number and severity of reported fires decreased. 
127

Table B-2: Anticipated Reductions in the Preventable Burden of Structural Fires.

Lives 

($M)

Injuries 

($M)

Direct 

Loss ($M)

Fire Protection 

($M)

Total Savings 

($M) Technology

$1,950 $438 $303 $0 $2,691 

Prevent Ignition

 Cigarettes

$243 $55 $46 $0 $343 Space Heaters

$215 $48 $92 $0 $355 Open Flame and Intentional Fires

$250 $56 $76 $0 $382 Cooking

$220 $49 $0 $0 $269 Ignition of Thermoplastics

$375 $84 $57 $0 $516 Upholstered Furniture

$295 $66 $20 $0 $381 Reduced HHR of Mattress and Bedding

$190 $43 $381 $0 $614 Reduced HRR of furniture, thermoplastics and mattresses

$1,211 $272 $1,006 $650 $3,139 Improved fire protection, materials

$1,211 $272 $303 $500 $2,286 Improving the sensitivity/reliability of detection 

$1,211 $272 $660 $100 $2,243 The ability to mitigate or control the combustion products.

$143 $32 $0 $100 $274 Ability to effectively manage an emergency evacuation

$86 $19 $1 $3,000 $3,106 Adequacy of the egress capacity relative to demand

$0 $0 $0 $100 $100 Preventing structural failure/ maintaining structural integrity.

$0 $0 $0 $5,000 $5,000 Performance Based Design

$21,700 Total Potential Savings
128

B.2 REDUCING THE PREVENTABLE BURDEN OF WILDLAND-URBAN INTERFACE 

FIRES 

In this section, an accounting is made to quantify how the preventable burden of fire in the WUI could 

be reduced by one-half, emphasizing the application of promising measurement science as discussed in 

Chapters 3 and 4 to address key aspects of the WUI fire problem. Referring to Table B-1, a reduction in 

the value of the WUI fire burden will require significant reductions in the number and intensity of WUI 

fires, efficiencies through more cost-effective infrastructure investments, a significant impact on fire 

fighter response (injury reduction and increased effectiveness), and improved fire resistance of WUI 

structures. A detailed accounting of the avoidable fraction, the preventable fire burden, and the 

anticipated impact is described below. The most fruitful measurement science areas to enable the 

reduction of the WUI fire burden are described below.

B.2.1 Civilian Fatalities and Injuries

Today, life safety losses in WUI fires are very low for both civilians and fire fighters as compared to 

building fires, and the avoidable fraction is considered to take a value between 0.9 and 1 (see Table B-1). 

Through a range of approaches, progress will be made to reduce life safety losses and ensure that this 

number does not increase as wildland fires continue to increase in severity and frequency. The targeted 

approaches are discussed in Chapters 3 and 4, and include engineered fire resistant design of structures, 

use of fire resistant materials and vegetation, and passive and active fire protection technologies. This is 

a new field and each of these approaches will require time to develop. Each specific technology will first 

be incorporated into new construction and over time, existing communities will be retrofitted with the 

technology. Improved evacuation models and procedures will also reduce civilian fatalities and injuries 

by providing more timely warning to community residents that a wildland fire threatens their 

community. Again, a better understanding of the evacuation dynamics will be developed and then 

incorporated into evacuation models. Once verified and validated, the models would be used by 

incident commanders to evacuate communities. Stakeholder education and compliance can be 

incorporated into existing outreach programs such as Firewise and FireSmart.79 The anticipated 

reductions in preventable fire burden enabled by measurement science are tabulated in Tables B-3 and 

B-4.
129

Table B-3: Anticipated Reductions in Civilian Fire Injuries by Approach.

Civilian Fire Injuries - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 0.1 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced 

Injuries

Net Reduction in Preventable 

Fire Burden

$ Million

Fire Resistant Materials a 0.05 5

Fire Resistant Vegetation a 0.05 5

Stakeholder Education and Compliance 0.075 7.5

Eng. Fire Resistant Design Guidelines a 0.2 20

Passive and Active Fire Protection b 0.025 2.5

Evacuation c 0.1 10

Total 0.50 50

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-20.

b. Table 3-21.

c. Table 3-22.
130

Table B-4: Anticipated reductions in Civilian Fire Fatalities by Approach.

Civilian Fire Fatalities - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 0.1 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced 

Fatalities

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire Burden

$ Million

Fire Resistant Materials a 0.05 5

Fire Resistant Vegetation a 0.05 5

Stakeholder Education and Compliance 0.075 7.5

Eng. Fire Resistant Design Guidelines a 0.2 20

Passive and Active Fire Protection b 0.025 2.5

Evacuation c 0.1 10

Total 0.50 50

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-20.

b. Table 3-21.

c. Table 3-22

B.2.2 Property Losses

Property losses that result from wildland-urban interface fires could be reduced through the same 

approaches mentioned for life safety (see above). The anticipated reduction enabled by measurement 

science in the preventable fire burden associated with property loss is tabulated in Table B-5.
131

Table B-5: Anticipated Reduction in Property Loss by Approach.

B.2.3 Fire Protection in Constructed Facilities

The cost of fire protection in WUI buildings (constructed facilities) could be reduced through three main 

approaches and corresponding technologies: engineered fire resistant design of structures, passive and 

active fire protection, and recovery guidelines and post fire analysis. Each of these approaches will 

require time to develop, test and refine applicable technologies. Technologies will first be incorporated 

into new construction and over time existing communities will be retrofitted with the technology. The 

majority of cost reduction will be realized through science-based designs that harden the communities 

against WUI fires. Currently, most passive and active fire protection technologies are unproven and lack 

standardized performance metrics. The anticipated reduction in preventable fire burden enabled by 

measurement science is tabulated in Table B-6.

Property Loss - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 2.8 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced 

Property Loss

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire 

Burden

$ Million

Fire Resistant Materials a 0.05 155

Fire Resistant Vegetation a 0.05 155

Stakeholder Education and Compliance 0.15 465

Eng. Fire Resistant Design Guidelines a 0.1 310

Improved WUI Fire Fighter Safety and Eff. c 0.1 310

Recovery Guidelines and Post Fire Analysis .05 155

Total 0.50 1550

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-20.

c. Table 3-22.
132

Table B-6: Anticipated Reduction in the Cost of Fire Protection in Constructed Facilities by Approach.

Fire Protection in Constructed Facilities - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 0.9 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced 

Costs

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire 

Burden

$ Million

Eng. Fire Resistant Design Guidelines a 0.4 380

Passive and Active Fire Protection b 0.05 40

Recovery Guidelines and Post Fire Analysis .05 40

Total 0.50 460

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-20.

b. Table 3-21.

B.2.4 Suppression

The suppression activities covered by this component of the total fire burden are mostly the costs trying 

to extinguish fire in the wildlands, before they threaten a WUI community. This includes the cost of 

smoke jumpers, wildland fire fighters, and aerial water drops. Whereas most of these costs are not 

considered preventable, there is a small fraction, about 10 %, of suppression costs, which are estimated 

as preventable and are related to improved efficiency of suppression activities defending WUI 

communities. The preventable costs of suppression will be reduced through a range of approaches and 

technologies: use of improved fire resistant materials and vegetation, passive and active fire protection, 

improved fire fighter safety and effectiveness, and recovery guidelines and post fire analysis. The 

anticipated reductions in preventable fire burden enabled by measurement science are tabulated in 

Table B-7.
133

Table B-7: Anticipated Reductions in the Cost of Suppression by Approach.

Suppression - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 0.35 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced Cost

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire 

Burden

$ Million

Fire Resistant Materials a 0.05 18

Fire Resistant Vegetation a 0.05 18

Passive and Active Fire Protection b 0.05 18

Improved WUI Fire Fighter Safety and Eff. c 0.05 18

Recovery Guidelines and Post Fire Analysis 0.05 18

Total 0.25 90

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-20.

b. Table 3-21.

c. Table 3-22.

B.2.5 Fuel Treatments, Preparedness, and Restoration

The fuel treatments, preparedness, and restoration activities covered by this component of the total fire 

burden are mostly the costs of trying to prepare and prevent WUI fires and to restore the wildlands 

after a wildland fire. There are more human-caused ignitions than those due to natural (lightning) 

causes.127 All of these fires are very difficult to prevent. A significant amount of the cost is due to fuel 

treatments such as cutting and removing excess fuels from the wildland areas and the preparation of 

WUI community buffer zones and fire breaks. After a fire, water control devices, ground cover, and new 

trees may be used near WUI communities to minimize soil erosion and mudslides. Because most 

wildland fires are started by natural causes, typically lightning strikes, most of these costs are not 

considered preventable. However, there is a fraction, about 25 %, of treatment, preparedness, and 

restoration costs which are estimated as preventable. The preventable costs of fuel treatments, 

preparedness, and restoration could be reduced through a range of approaches: use of improved fire 

resistant materials and vegetation, engineered fire resistant design, passive and active fire protection, 

and recovery guidelines and post fire analysis. The anticipated reductions in preventable fire burden are 

tabulated in Table B-8.
134

Table B-8: Anticipated Reduction in the Cost of Fuel Treatments, Preparedness, and Restoration 

by Approach.

Fuel Treatments, Preparedness, and Restoration - Preventable Fire Burden of 

$ 0.23 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced Cost

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire 

Burden

$ Million

Fire Resistant Materials a 0.025 6

Fire Resistant Vegetation a 0.025 6

Eng. Fire Resistant Design Guidelines a 0.075 17

Passive and Active Fire Protection b 0.1 23

Recovery Guidelines and Post Fire Analysis 0.025 6

Total 0.25 56

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-20.

b. Table 3-21.

c. Table 3-22.

B.2.6 Economic Impact

The economic impacts covered by this component of the total fire burden include displacement, loss of 

public services, business and rental income loss, and loss of transportation and utility services. 

Displacement costs include temporary quarters for displaced occupants of residential, commercial and 

public buildings. Loss of public service includes the cost of functional downtimes for police, fire, and 

medical facilities as well as emergency shelters. Loss of transportation and utility services includes cost 

of traffic delays and detours due to road and bridge closures as well as the loss of electric power, 

potable water, and waste water systems. Reducing the ignition and fire spread within a community will 

result in decreased need of temporary shelters and will prevent loss of public service and business 

income. About 90 % of the economic impact is estimated as avoidable. Preventable costs will be

reduced through a range of approaches/technologies: use of improved fire resistant materials and 

vegetation, stakeholder education and compliance, engineered fire resistant design, passive and active 
135

fire protection, recovery guidelines and post fire analysis. The cost reductions will be realized by stakeholder education & compliance, engineered fire resistant design, and recovery guidelines. The 

anticipated reductions in preventable fire burden enabled by measurement science are in Table B-9.

Table B-9: Anticipated Reduction in Economic Impact by Approach.

Economic Impact - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 3.2 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced 

Costs

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire 

Burden

$ Million

Fire Resistant Materials a 0.05 160

Fire Resistant Vegetation a 0.05 160

Stakeholder Education and Compliance 0.15 480

Eng. Fire Resistant Design Guidelines a 0.05 160

Passive and Active Fire Protection b 0.1 320

Recovery Guidelines and Post Fire Analysis 0.01 160

Total 0.5 1580

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-20.

b. Table 3-21.
136

B.2.7 Summary of the Strategy to Reduce the Preventable Burden of WUI Fires

The total amount of preventable WUI fire burden is about $ 7.5 billion or about one-half of the total 

WUI fire burden. Over the next generation, the research described by this roadmap is estimated to 

reduce the preventable WUI burden by about $3.6 billion or about one-half. Figures B-1 and B-2 show 

the anticipated cost reductions enabled by targeted measurement science in components of the WUI 

fire burden and in the contributions to technical approaches to reduce the WUI fire burden, 

respectively.

Figure B-1: Estimated cost reductions in components of the WUI fire burden.

Figure B-2: Contributions of technical approaches to reduce the WUI fire burden.

Fire Resist Mat

9% Fire Resist Veg

9%

Stakehold Ed

26%

Fire Resist 

Design

23%

Pass & Active 

Fire Prot

11%

Improve FF 

Safe & 

Effectiveness

8%

Post Fire 

Analysis

14%
137

B.3 REDUCING THE PREVENTABLE BURDEN OF THE FIRE SERVICE

In this section, an accounting is made to quantify how the preventable burden associated with the Fire 

Service could be reduced by about one-third, emphasizing the application of promising measurement 

science as discussed in Chapters 3 and 4 to address key aspects of the problem. A reduction in the value 

of the Fire Service burden will require significant improvements to fire fighter safety and effectiveness. 

A detailed accounting of the avoidable fraction, the preventable fire burden, and the anticipated impact 

of this roadmap is described below in terms of the most fruitful measurement science areas to reduce 

the fire service burden.

B.3.1 Fire Fighter Safety: Fatalities and Injuries

The monetized social cost of fire fighter injuries (79,700) and fatalities (105) in 2008 was $19 billion and 

$0.4 B, respectively, as seen in Table B-1. The avoidable portion of fire fighter injuries and fatalities was 

estimated as 90 %. The unavoidable fraction is associated with events outside of human control.

Fatalities and injuries are being reduced through a range of approaches: situational awareness, incident 

command, tactics, equipment, training, and lessons learned from incident investigation. 

Injuries and fatalities can be classified according to the type of duty the fire fighter was involved when 

an incident occurred, including fire ground operations, other on-duty, responding to or returning from 

an incident, training, non-fire emergency, and after an incident. The number and cost of injuries and 

fatalities for calendar year 2006 are tabulated according to type of duty in Table B-10. For the purposes 

of estimating the impact of these approaches and technologies, only injuries and fatalities that resulted 

from fire ground operations and training were considered. All (100 %) heart injuries that result from 

heart attack/stroke and most (50 %) of the strains, sprains, and muscle pains were judged as not likely to 

be impacted by the measurement science and technologies addressed by this roadmap. These issues 

could be addressed by the medical and kinesiology community. This reduces the number of fatalities 

(fire ground and training) being targeted (about 45) and the number of injuries (fire ground minus 100 % 

heart/stroke and 40 % of strains, sprains, and muscle pain) being considered (about 38,700).

The injuries and fatalities covered by this component of the total fire burden are the costs of fire ground 

and training activities. For the fatalities, these activities include being caught or trapped in the 

structure, collapse of the structure, being lost in the structure, and contact/exposure to flames or gases. 

For injuries, these activities include burns (fire or chemical), smoke or gas inhalation, respiratory 

distress, burns and smoke inhalation, wounds, dislocations, strains, sprains, muscle pain, and thermal 

stress, frostbite, or heat exhaustion. 

The anticipated reductions in the cost of preventable fire fighter fatalities and injuries are tabulated in 

Tables B-11 and B-12. For both fatalities and injuries, the largest reductions in preventable cost burden 

were estimated to be realized through situational awareness, equipment, tactics, and training. Smaller 

reductions were estimated to result from improved incident command and post-fire lessons learned. 

Each specific technology will be incorporated into fire department training, fire ground operations, and 

personal protective equipment. Urban fire departments may incorporate these technologies through 
138

their municipal training programs or academies. Rural fire departments may incorporate these 

technologies through state fire training academies. Additional training on incident command may be 

provided at the National Fire Academy (US Fire Administration) in Emmitsburg, MD. Equipment 

performance metrics will be incorporated into existing or new standards such as first responder 

standards developed by the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) or American Society for Testing 

Methods (ASTM). 

Table B-10: Number and Cost of Fire Fighter Fatalities and Injuries by Type of Duty (2006).

Type of Duty

Number

of Fatalities

Cost of 

Fatalities

$ Millions

Number

of Injuries

Cost of 

Injuries

$ Millions

Fire Group Operations 36 170 44,210 1,007

Other On-Duty 21 100 13,690 3,118

Responding / Returning 15 70 4,745 1,081

Training 8 40 7,665 1,746

Non-Fire Emergency 5 25 13,090 2,982

After an Incident 20 95 0 0

Total 106 500 83,400 9,934

B.3.2 Fire Fighter Effectiveness

Enhanced fire fighter effectiveness is expected to reduce direct property loss in both residential and 

non-residential structural fires by about 10 % due to improved fire fighting tactics, incident command, 

situational awareness, training, and post-fire lessons learned.*

 Improved tactics would prevent fire 

spread and reduce property loss. Enhanced incident command and situational awareness would allow 

better utilization of resources, limit fire spread, and facilitate rapid suppression that would result in 

reduced property loss. Incorporating lessons learned and better understanding of fire dynamics into fire 

service training would allow more efficient fire ground operations and reduce both residential and 

commercial property losses.

 

* The impact of enhanced fire fighter effectiveness for fighting WUI fires was credited in Appendix B.2.
139

Table B-11: Anticipated reductions in Fire Fighter Fatality by Approach.

Fire Fighter Fatalities - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 0.2 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced Fatalities

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire Burden

$ Million

Training a 0.1 21

Situational Awareness b 0.1 21

Incident Command c 0.05 11

Equipment d 0.1 21

Tactics e 0.1 21

Lessons Learned 0.05 11

Total 0.50 105

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-14.

b. Table 3-16.

c. Table 3-15. 

d. Table 3-17.

e. Table 3-18.

The anticipated reductions in the cost of preventable property losses are tabulated in Table B-12. For 

improved fire fighter effectiveness, the largest reductions in preventable cost burden were estimated to 

be realized through incident command, training, and post fire lessons learned. Each specific technology 

will be incorporated into fire department training, fire ground operations, and personal protective 

equipment. Urban fire departments may incorporate these technologies through their municipal 

training programs or academies. Rural fire departments may incorporate these technologies through 

state fire training academies. Additional training on incident command may be provided at the National 

Fire Academy (US Fire Administration) in Emmitsburg, MD. Equipment performance metrics will be 

incorporated into existing or new standards such as first responder standards developed by the National 

Fire Protection Association (NFPA) or American Society for Testing Methods (ASTM). 
140

Table B- 12: Anticipated reductions in Fire Fighter Injuries by Approach.

Fire Fighter Injuries - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 8.8 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced 

Injuries

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire Burden 

$ Million

Training a 0.1 880

Situational Awareness b 0.1 880

Incident Command c 0.05 440

Equipment d 0.1 880

Tactics e 0.1 880

Lessons Learned 0.05 441

Total 0.50 4,410

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-14.

b. Table 3-16.

c. Table 3-15. 

d. Table 3-17.

e. Table 3-18.

B.3.3 Fire Department Costs

Career and volunteer fire department costs are significant ($89.7 billion in 2007), and are mostly not 

avoidable. A significant fraction of fire department costs are spent on emergency medical and disaster 

services, neither of which are addressed in this roadmap. Even if fire calls were reduced to 25 % of the 

current value, there would still be a need for local fire departments, which would be needed to respond 

to infrequent fires to ensure the safety of building occupants and communities. In this sense, the cost of 

fire departments providing fire response as well as medical and disaster services would not be 

considered avoidable. Based on the ratio of EMS to fire service response calls and assuming that the fire 

service will be needed even as fire calls continue to drop, the avoidable fraction of career and volunteer 

fire department costs is estimated as 10 %, leading to an estimate of about $9 billion of preventable 

burden associated with fire department costs. 

In addition to reducing the fatalities and injuries, and property losses, improved technologies can be 

used to provide the same level of community fire protection at lower fire department costs. More cost 
141

efficient fire protection would reduce both career and volunteer fire department costs through a range 

of approaches: better resource allocation and community education. Better allocation of fire 

department resources allows a community to characterize its needs and provide the resources, both in 

terms of equipment and personnel. Educating the community on how to prevent fires will result in 

fewer responses and decreased equipment maintenance and operating expenses such as vehicle fuels. 

Because each of these approaches requires time to develop better understanding of the technologies, it 

may require time to implement these approaches. The anticipated reductions in the cost of preventable 

property losses are tabulated in Table B-13. 

Table B-13: Anticipated reductions in Property Loss Costs by Approach.

Property Losses - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 1.3 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced 

Property Loss

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire 

Burden

$ Million

Training a 0.2 257

Situational Awareness b 0.05 65

Incident Command c 0.1 128

Equipment d 0.1 128

Tactics e 0.05 65

Total 0.50 642

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-14.

b. Table 3-16.

c. Table 3-15. 

d. Table 3-17.

e. Table 3-18.
142

Table B-14: Anticipated reductions in the Cost of Fire Departments by Approach.

Fire Departments - Preventable Fire Burden of $ 9 B

Approach

Fraction of 

Reduced 

Costs

Net Reduction in 

Preventable Fire 

Burden 

$ Million

Education a 0.075 670

Resource Allocation b 0.1 900

Total 0.175 1570

For a list of applicable technologies, see:

a. Table 3-14.

b. Table 3-15. 

B.3.4 Summary of Strategy to Reduce the Preventable Burden of Fire Fighting

The total preventable fire service burden is almost $ 27 billion or about one-quarter of the total fire 

service burden. Within the next generation, the research described by this roadmap is estimated to 

reduce the preventable fire service burden by about $7 billion or about one-quarter. Figures B-3 and B4 show the estimated cost reductions in components of the Fire Service burden, and the contributions 

of technical approaches to reduce the WUI fire burden, respectively.
143

Figure B-3: Estimated cost reductions in components of the Fire Service burden.

Figure B-4: Contributions of technical approaches to reduce the WUI fire burden.

Fire Fighter 

Fatalities

2%

Fire Fighter 

Injuries

66%

Fire Fighter 

Inefficiencies

9%

Fire Department 

Costs

23%

Fire Fighter 

Training

17%

Situational 

Awareness

15%

Incident Command

7%

Personal 

Prot 

Equipme

nt

14%

Fire Ground 

Tactics

16%

Lessons Learned

8%

Resource 

Allocation

13%

Community 

Education

10%
144

B.4 REDUCING THE PREVENTABLE BURDEN OF VEHICLE, OUTDOOR AND OTHER 

FIRES 

As described in Appendix A, this category includes all other fires not already classified as structure or 

natural vegetation. This includes NFIRS’ major incident categories such as fire in “mobile property 

(vehicle) fires,” “outside rubbish fires,” “special outside fires,” “cultivated vegetation,” “crop fires,” 

”fires,” and “other.” In 2008, an estimated 572,000 fires of this type occurred according to the NFRIS 

database. The loss profile is dominated by vehicle fires both in terms of direct property loss and life 

safety. 

About 20 % of the total number of reported fires was related to vehicles accounting for a significant 

number of civilian deaths and injuries.

128 About 10 % of fire related fatalities in the US involve postcollision vehicle fires in which the victim is trapped inside the vehicle and unable to effect timely escape; 

while these fatalities represent just about 1 % of all of vehicle fatalities.

129 The motor vehicle industry is 

working on advanced collision avoidance technologies to prevent vehicle collisions. Some of these are 

already commercially available on modern vehicles (including anti-lock brakes and Forward collision 

warning and mitigation systems), and other technologies are being developed. This approach is seen as 

a cost effective way to deal with the complexities of fire related fatalities associated with post-collision

gasoline powered vehicles. 

B.5 SUMMARY OF THE STRATEGY TO REDUCE THE PREVENTABLE FIRE BURDEN 

Table B-1 shows that the total preventable fire burden is about $102 billion or about one-third of the 

total U.S. fire burden of $314 B. Table B-1 also shows that the contributors to the preventable fire 

burden are due to structure fires ($63 B), WUI fires ($7.7 B), vehicle and outside fires ($4.3 B), and the 

fire service ($26.6 B). Of the total preventable fire burden, it is anticipated that the measurement 

science described in this roadmap will contribute to the reduction of about $31 billion or about onethird of the preventable fire service burden through combined reductions in structure fires ($21 B), WUI 

fires ($3.7 B), and the fire service ($6.7 B). This represents reductions in the cost and loss associated 

with structure fires, WUI fires, and fire service by fractional amounts equal to about 1/3, 1⁄2, and 1⁄4, 

respectively.
145

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