p.1 

OAR Box 1828 

Prepped by Ollie Stewart 

Document Number: 

120) M-K-(B)-109 

Docket Number: 

A-83-27 

Printed 11/12/2008 11:12:52 AM Sheet 120 of 325 
P.2 

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, INC. A-83-27 

i II-K-(B)-109 

May 5, 1983 

Mr. Robert Short 

Economic Analysis Branch 

U.S. Environmental Protection Aaency 

Mail Drop-12 

Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 

Subject: EPA Contract No. 68-02-3564, Work Assignment #9 

Dear Robert: 

Enclosed are national environmental, energy and cost impacts for alternative industrial boiler NSPS S0? emission regulations. Results are 

presented for two time periods: 1986-1990 (1990 results) and 1986-1995 

(1995 results). 

The revised energy scenario 1s summarized in Tables 1-9. Note that the 

IFCAM coal types have been revised to correspond with recent ICF, Incorporated recommendations (reference memorandum from Schweers, K.A. and 

C D . Ebert, ICF Inc., to Greenwald, J., EPA, on April 22, 1983. Industrial Coal Prices for NSPS Analyses by Federal Regions). Other recent 

IFCAM modifications include: 

t revised NO emissions rates and NO monitoring costs, 

§ lime spray drying 1s included as an alternative pollution control 

technology (applicable only if coal sulfur content is less than 3.5 

percent; up to 90 percent S0« removal), and 

• single mechanical collectors and side stream separators are applicable PM control technologies regardless of the ash content of the 

coal (previously, these technologies were restricted to coal types 

with low ash content — less than 9 percent; since all ICF bituminous coal types have average ash contents greater than 9 percent, 

see Table 8, this restriction was removed). 

The number of new industrial boilers included in these results is an 

IFCAM projection based on the forecast of total industrial fossil fuel 

demand summarized in Table 9 and assumptions about retirement rates, 

the mix of industrial energy demand by industry group, and the expected 

distribution of new industrial boiler sales by size and capacity utilization rate. 

Economics / Engineering 
P.3 

Mr. Robert Short 

'May 5, 1983 

Page 2 

A mix of new spreader stoker and pulverized coal boilers has been 

assumed in the 100-250 MMBtu/hr size range. 

The alternative industrial boiler NSPS air emission regulations assumptions are summarized in Tables 10-13. Note that the PM and NO air 

emission regulations are constant in all four scenarios. The S0« regulations for coal-fired boilers in Tables 10-13 represent 30-day Pollingaverage emission rates. Annual average coal S0? emission rates have 

been assumed to be 20 percent lower.

 c 

Note also that all cost data (with the exception of ICF industrial coal 

price projections) are labeled as 1982 dollars. In fact, they are mid1978 dollars multiplied by 1.39. This represents mid-1982 dollars if 

the GNP implicit price deflator is assumed. This also could represent 

mid-1981 dollars 1f the Chemical Engineering magazine plant cost index 

is used. 

Sincerely, 

T1m Hogan 

TH:mk 

Enclosure 

cc: Al Wehe 
P.4 

PROJECTIONS OF 1990 AND 1995 NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL, ENERGY 

AND COST IMPACTS OF PROPOSED AIR EMISSIONS STANDARDS 

FOR NEW INDUSTRIAL BOILERS 

Prepared for: 

U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards 

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711 

Prepared by: 

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, INC. 

1111 North 19th Street 

Arlington, Virginia 22209 

May 5, 1983 
P.5 

LIST OF TABLES 

Key Assumptions Page 

1. World Oil Price Forecast 1 

2. Distillate Fuel Oil Price Forecast 2 

3. Residual Fuel Oil Price Forecast 3 

4. Natural Gas Price Forecast 4 

5. Delivered Industrial Coal Price Forecast 5 

6. Average Sulfur Content by Coal Type 7 

7. Average Btu Content by Coal Type 8 

8. Average Ash Content by Coal Type 9 

9. Projections of Industrial Fossil Fuel Demand 10 

10. Base Case NSPS Air Emissions Regulations 12 

11. Option Case 1 NSPS Air Emissions Regulations 13 

12. Option Case 2 NSPS Air Emissions Regulations 14 

13. Option Case 3 NSPS Air Emissions Regulations 15 

Results 

14. 1990 Projected Air Emissions 16 

15. 1990 Projected Boiler Types 17 

16. 1990 Projected Fossil Fuel Demand 18 

17. 1990 Projected Costs 19 

18. 1995 Projected Air Emissions 20 

19. 1995 Projected Boiler Types 21 

20. 1995 Projected Fossil Fuel Demand. . . 22 

21. 1995 Projected Costs 23 
P.6 

TABLE 1. WORLD OIL PRICE FORECAST3 

(1982 $/bbl) 

Average Refiner's 

Acquisition Cost of 

Year Imported Crude Oil 

1985 31.48 

1990 32.75 

increases at 1.0 percent annually in real terms. U.S. Department of 

Energy. Analysis of Natural Gas Consumer Regulatory Reform Legislation. 

February 28, 1983. p. 14. Derived from the fiscal year 1984 budget. 

• 1-
P.7 

TABLE 2. DISTILLATE FUEL OIL PRICE FORECAST 

(1982 $/MMBtu) 

Demand 

Region 

1. New England 

2. New York/New Jersey 

3. Middle Atlantic 

4. South Atlantic 

5. Midwest 

6. Southwest 

7. Central 

8. North Central 

9. West 

10. Northwest 

1985 

6.94 

6.93 

6.93 

6.90 

6.79 

6.69 

6.70 

6.63 

6.69 

6.69 

1990 

7.25 

7.24 

7.24 

7.21 

7.10 

6.99 

7.01 

6.94 

6.99 

6.99 

1995 

7.57 

7.57 

7.57 

7.53 

7.42 

7.31 

7.33 

7.26 

7.31 

7.31 

1999a 

7.85 

7.84 

7.84 

7.80 

7.69 

7.58 

7.60 

7.53 

7.58 

7.58 

aRemains constant in real terms after 1999. 
TABLE 3. RESIDUAL FUEL OIL PRICE FORECAST' 

(1982 $/MMBtu) 

P.8 

Demand 

Region 

1. New England 

2. New York/New Jersey 

3. Middle Atlantic 

4. South Atlantic 

5. Midwest 

6. Southwest 

7. Central 

8. North Central 

9. West 

10. Northwest 

1985 

5.37 

5.37 

5.37 

5.37 

5.46 ' 

5.07 

5.39 

5.32 

5.37 

5.37 

1990 

6.21 

6.21 

6.21 

6.29 

6.21 

6.22 

6.24 

6.16 

6.21 

6.21 

1995 

7.19 

7.19 

7.19 

7.19 

7.28 

7.19 

7.21 

7.14 

7.19 

7.19 

1999b 

7.61 

7.61 

7.61 

7.61 

7.69 

7.61 

7.62 

7.55 

7.61 

7.61 

Low sulfur, 0.3 percent sulfur. 

0.8 percent sulfur = 0.3 percent sulfur 

1.6 percent sulfur =0.3 percent sulfur 

$0.33/MMBtu. 

$0.68/MMBtu. 

3.0 percent sulfur = 0.3 percent sulfur - $1.13/MMBtu. 

DRemains constant in real terms after 1999. 

-3-
P.9 

TABLE 4. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST 

(1982 $/MMBtu) 

Demand 

Region 

1. New England 

2. New York/New Jersey 

3. Middle Atlantic 

4. South Atlantic 

5. Midwest 

6. Southwest 

7. Central 

8. North Central 

9. West 

10. Northwest 

1985 

5.11 

5.11 

5.11 

5.11 

5.20 

4.82 

5.13 

5.06 

5.11 

5.11 

1990 

5.94 

5.94 

5.94 

5.94 

6.03 

5.94 

5.96 

5.89 

5.94 

5.94 

1995a 

6.59 

6.59 

6.59 

6.59 

6.67 

6.59 

6.60 

6.54 

6.59 

6.59 

increases after 1995 at 1.0 percent annually. 

-4-
P.10 

TABLE 5. DELIVERED INDUSTRIAL COAL PRICE FORECAST3 

(January 1983 $/MMBtu) 

Demand region 

1. New England 

2. New York/New Jersey 

3. Middle Atlantic 

4. South Atlantic 

5. Midwest 

6. Southwest 

Coal type 

Bituminous 

Bituminous 

Bituminous 

Bituminous 

Bituminous 

Subbituminous 

Bituminous 

Sulfur content 

(lb S02/MMBtu) 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

> 5.00 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

> 5.00 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

> 5.00 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

> 5.00 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

> 5.00 

<1.08 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

> 5.00 

1985 

3.42 

3.30 

3.25 

3.19 

2.68 

2.94 

3.20 

3.10 

2.94 

2.87 

2.39 

2.60 

2.77 

2.60 

2.40 

2.41 

1.98 

1.77 

2.74 

2.55 

2.30 

2.64 

2.09 

2.52 

2.94 

3.00 

2.70 

2.59 

2.18 

2.23 

2.63 

2.89 

1.03 

2.71 

2.57 

2.95 

2.82 

1990 

3.67 

3.67 

3.68 

3.50 

2.98 

3.21 

3.41 

3.42 

3.22 

3.14 

2.71 

2.83 

3.05 

2.96 

2.74 

2.70 

2.50 

2.14-

3.12 

2.60 

2.80 

2.53 

2.69 

2.64 

3.22 

3.14 

2.97 

2.91 

2.46 

2.42 

2.84 

3.26 

2.65 

3.09 

2.79 

3.17 

2.84 

1995 

3.80 

3.88 

3.85 

3.64 

3.29 

3.41 

3.51 

3.54 

3.35 

3.22 

2.90 

2.97 

3.17 

3.11 

2.88 

2.82 

2.81 

2.32 

3.26 

3.03 

3.06 

2.55 

2.81 

2.71 

3.37 

3.30 

3.08 

3.02 

2.78 

2.52 

2.84 

3.51 

3.02 

3.19 

2.94 

3.39 

2.97 

2000 

3.92 

4.03 

3.96 

3.68 

3.48 

3.56 

3.63 

3.66 

3.47 

3.31 

3.14 

3.13 

3.30 

3.25 

3.00 

3.04 

2.96 

2.54 

3.42 

3.31 

3.17 

2.70 

2.96 

2.87 

3.48 

3.45 

3.21 

3.14 

2.91 

2.67 

2.92 

3.69 

3.16 

3.21 

3.08 

3.46 

3.07 

-5-
9 f 

TABLE 5. DELIVERED INDUSTRIAL COAL PRICE FORECAST3 (CONTINUED) 

(January 1983 $/MMBtu) 

Demand region Coal type 

7. Central Bituminous 

Subbituminous 

8. North Central Bituminous 

Subbituminous 

9. West Bituminous 

Subbituminous 

10. Northwest Bituminous 

Subbituminous 

Sulfur content 

(lb S0-/MMBtu) 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

> 5.00 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

1.08-1.67 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

1985 

2.76 

2.95 

2.95 

2.94 

2.69 

2.34 

2.53 

2.37 

2.43 

1.47 

1.29 

1.91 

1.36 

0.86 

0.80 

2.63 

2.26 

2.53 

2.34 

3.10 

2.17 

2.80 

2.06 

2.05 

2.05 

aICF Inc., corresponds with current EPA Acid Rain Base Case. 

-6-

1990 

2.95 

3.23 

3.22 

3.15 

2.61 

2.47 

2.60 

2.44 

2.48 

1.66 

1.34 

1.40 

1.48 

0.92 

0.90 

2.76 

2.49 

2.78 

2.42 

3.24 

2.27 

2.81 

2.14 

2.10 

2.05 

1995 

3.07 

3.34 

3.18 

3.27 

2.58 

2.52 

2.72 

2.52 

2.63 

1.74 

1.35 

1.50 

1.47 

1.01 

1.04 

2.82 

2.85 

2.60 

2.49 

3.30 

3.29 

2.78 

2.29 

2.29 

2.05 

p.11 

2000 

3.09 

3.46 

3.22 

3.40 

2.66 

2.58 

2.81 

2.81 

2.54 

1.76 

1.38 

1.54 

1.59 

1.12 

1.06 

2.98 

2.91 

2.65 

2.59 

3.42 

3.42 

2.80 

2.36 

2.36 

2.10 
P.12 

TABLE 6. AVERAGE SULFUR CONTENT BY COAL TYPE3 

Coal type 

Bituminous 

Subbituminous 

Range 

(lb SO./MMBtu) 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

>*5.00 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

Average 

(lb S02/MMBtu) 

0.95 

1.45 

2.10 

2.85 

4.15 

5.54 

0.95 

1.45 

2.10 

aICF, Inc. 

• 7-
Denu 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

' 8. 

9. 

10. 

and Region 

New England 

New York/New Jersey 

Middle Atlantic 

South Atlantic 

Midwest 

Southwest 

Central 

North Central 

West 

Northwest 

<1.08 

25.50 

25.00 

25.29 

25.44 

25.05 

24.83 

23.86 

21.70 

21.01 

21.88 

TABLE 7. 

1.08-1.67 

25.50 

25.20 

25.40 

25.47 

25.11 

20.67 

24.33 

20.66 

20.20 

21.88 

AVERAGE BTU CONTENT BY 

(MMBtu/ton) 

Bituminous 

1.67-2.50 

25.60 

25.50 

25.42 

25.44 

23.59 

20.55 

24.06 

20.57 

19.65 

21.88 

2.50-3.33 

26.30 

26.10 

25.34 

24.86 

22.97 

24.27 

22.89 

-

-

-

COAL TYPEa 

3.33-5.00 

25.70 

25.70 

25.00 

23.64 

22.93 

24.26 

22.82 

-

-

-

>5.00 

24.75 

25.20 

24.86 

22.70 

23.32 

23.89 

23.00 

-

-

-

<1.08 

-

-

-

-

17.65 

17.14 

17.00 

17.54 

-

19.00 

Subbituminous 

1.08-1.67 

_ 

-

-

-

-

-

17.00 

17.24 

-

19.00 

1.67-2.50 

_ 

-

-

-

-

-

17.00 

17.24 

18.50 

19.00 

l

ICF, Inc. 
TABLE 8. AVERAGE ASH CONTENT BY COAL TYPE* 

(percentage, moist) 

Dem< 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

' 8. 

9. 

10. 

md Region 

New England 

New York/New Jersey 

Middle Atlantic 

South Atlantic 

Midwest 

Southwest 

Central 

North Central 

West 

Northwest 

<1.08 

11.9 

11.9 

11.8 

11.7 

11.0 

12.1 

10.0 

10.0 

11.3 

10.0 

1.08-1.67 

11.9 

11.9 

12.4 

12.3 

11.0 

11.8 

12.4 

10.0 

16.3 

10.0 

Bituminous 

1.67-2.50 

13.0 

11.4 

12.6 

12.3 

10.5 

15.0 

12.4 

10.0 

16.3 

10.0 

2.50-3.33 

13.0 

13.0 

12.2 

11.9 

10.9 

11.8 

11.1 

-

-

-

3.33-5. 

13.0 

13.0 

13.0 

11.9 

12.2 

12.2 

11.1 

-

-

-

00 >5.00 

13.0 

13.0 

13.0 

11.8 

12.0 

12.3 

11.1 

-

-

-

<1.08 

-

-

-

-

6.9 

7.3 

6.0 

8.4 

-

10.0 

Subbituminous 

1.08-1. 

-

-

-

-

-

-

6.0 

6.9 

-

10.0 

67 1.67-2.50 

-

-

-

-

-

-

6.0 

6.9 

18.3 

10.0 

lICF, Inc. 
P.15 

TABLE 9. PROJECTIONS OF INDUSTRIAL FOSSIL FUEL -DEMAND3 

(IO12 Btu) 

Demand Region 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

10. 

New England 

New York/New Jersey 

Middle Atlantic 

South Atlantic 

Midwest 

Southwest 

Central 

North Central 

West 

Northwest 

U.S. TOTAL 

1985 

206.2 

528.6 

1,021.3 

1,450.1 

2,194.8 

3,284.8 

496.4 

371.8 

697.5 

350.1 

10,601.5 

1990 

227.0 

582.2 

1,127.6 

1,604.9 

2,312.5 

3,602.8 

530.4 

405.3 

794.7 

389.5 

11,576.9 

1995 

247.5 

637.8 

1,224.9 

1,754.0 

2,506.7 

3,948.8 

581.8 

438.1 

858.4 

421.5 

12,619.4 

Includes coal, residual and distillate fuel oil and natural gas consumption in boilers and process heat equipment. Excludes fuel demand 

for feedstocks or raw materials. 

-10-
Federal Regions of the United States 

a 

\**'\s Boston 

New York City 

Philadelphia 

Washington D.C. 
TABLE 10. BASE CASE NSPS AIR EMISSIONS REGULATIONS 

(lb/MMBtu) 

P.17 

Fuel type 

Size class 

(MMBtu/hr) SO, PM NO 

Natural gas 

Distillate fuel oil 

Residual fuel oil 

Coal 

>50 

>50 

50-250 

>250 

50-100 

100-250 

>250 

0.80 

1.20 

--

— 

0.10 

o i

n in 

CM o o 

• • • 

CD OO 

0.20 

0.20 

0.30. 

0.25b 

0.60 

0.60/0.70 

0.70 

Low excess air required for natural gas, distillate fuel oil, low sulfur 

residual fuel oil and coal burned on stokers. Staged combustion air 

required for pulverized coal boilers and high sulfur residual fuel oil. 

Requires staged combustion air when nitrogen content is greater than 0.23 

percent. 

c0.20 if capacity utilization is less than 30 percent. 

0.70 for pulverized coal boilers; 0.60 for stoker coal boilers. 

-12-
TABLE 11. OPTION CASE 1 NSPS AIR EMISSIONS REGULATIONS 

(lb/MMBtu) 

P.18 

Fuel type 

Size class 

(MMBtu/hr) SO, PM NO 

Natural gas 

Distillate fuel oil 

Residual fuel oil 

Coal. 

>50 

>50 

50-250 

>250 

50-100 

100-250 

>250 

— 

— 

0.80 

0.80 

2.50 

2.50 

1.20 

0.10 

0.20„ 

0.05c 

0.05 

0.20 

0.20 

0.30. 

0.25b 

0.60 f 

0.60/0.70c 

0.70 

Low excess air required for natural gas, distillate fuel oil, lew sulfur 

residual fuel oil and coal burned on stokers. Staged combustion air 

required for pulverized coal boilers and high sulfur residual fuel oil. 

'Requires staged combustion air when nitrogen content is greater than 0.23 

percent. 

'0.20 if capacity utilization is less than 30 percent. 

0.70 for pulverized coal boilers; 0.60 for stoker coal boilers. 

13 
TABLE 12. OPTION CASE 2 NSPS AIR EMISSIONS REGULATIONS 

(lb/MMBtu) 

P.19 

Fuel type 

Size class 

(MMBtu/hr) SO, PM NO. 

Natural gas . 

Distillate fuel oil 

Residual fuel oil 

Coal 

>50 

>50 

50-250 

>250 

50-100 

100-250 

>250 

--

— 

0.80 

0.80 

1.20 

1.20 

1.20 

— 

— 

0.10 ooo 

• • • 

CD o ro cn cn o 

o 

0.20 

0.20 

0.30. 

0.25b 

0.60 

0.60/0.70c 

0.70 

Low excess air required for natural gas, distillate fuel oil, low sulfur 

residual fuel oil and coal burned on stokers. Staged combustion air 

required for pulverized coal boilers and high sulfur residual fuel oil. 

'Requires staged combustion air when nitrogen content is greater than 0.23 

percent. 

"0.20 if capacity utilization is less than 30 percent. 

0.70 for pulverized coal boilers; 0.60 for stoker coal boilers., 

14 
P.20 

TABLE 13. OPTION CASE 3 NSPS AIR EMISSIONS REGULATIONS 

(lb/MMBtu) 

Fuel type 

Natural gas 

Distillate fuel oil 

Residual fuel oil 

Coal 

Size class 

(MMBtu/hr) 

>50 

>50 

50-250 

>250 

50-100 

100-250 

>250 

so2 

— 

— 

0.80 

0.80 

o o o 

OOO CM C

M CM 

• • • 

fl—• fl—• t—l 

PM 

— 

— 

0.10 OOO 

• • • 

o o ro cn i

n o 

N O/ 

0.20 

0.20 

0.30, 

0.25° 

0.60 a 

0.60/0.70e 

0.70 

Low excess air required for natural gas, distillate fuel oil, low sulfur 

residual fuel oil and coal burned on stokers. Staged combustion air 

required for pulverized coal boilers and high sulfur residual fuel oil. 

'Requires staged combustion air when nitrogen content is greater than 0.23 

percent. 

"90 percent removal required. 

0.20 if capacity utilization is less than 30 percent. 

5

0.70 for pulverized coal boilers; 0.60 for stoker coal boilers. 

15 
t 'l *" 

Poll 

so2 

PM 

m

-

x 

P M10 

utant 

Base Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Base Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Base Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Base Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

1 

2 

3 

1 

2 

3 

1 

2 

3 

1 

2 

3 

TABLE 14. 

50-100 

121.4 

36.5 

18.4 

1.4 

9.0 

5.3 

4.0 

0.8 

22.0 

20.6 

18.4 

13.3 

8.0 

4.3 

3.3 

0.8 

1990 PROJECTED AIR 

(IO3 short 

100-150 

85.5 

11.4 

8.0 

3.6 

5.2 

0.9 

0.9 

0.8 

14.8 

13.1 

12.9 

12.4 

5.2 

0.9 

0.9 

0.8 

-tons) 

Boiler 

150-200 

106.7 

42.0 

14.7 

7.6 

5.6 

1.8 

1.2 

1.3 

18.2 

21.0 

15.5 

14.8 

5.6 

1.8 

1.2 

1.3 

EMISSIONS 

Size (MMBtu/hr) 

200-250 

61.8 

28.4 

17.1 

7.4 

1.5 

' 1.1 

1.4 

1.3 

14.0 

11.9 

11.5 

11.0 

1.5 

1.1 

1.4 

1.3 

>250 

54.8 

54.8 

54.8 

22.2 

5.1 

5.1 

5.1 

5.2 

36.0 

36.0 

36.0 

35.5 

5.1 

5.1 

5.1 

5.2 

—————— — 

Total 

430.2 

173.1 

113.0 

42.2 

26.4 

14.2 

12.6 

9.4 

104.9 

102.6 

94.3 

87.0 

25.3 

13.2 

11.9 

9.4 

16 
P.22 

' " ' 

Fuel Type 

Natural gas/ 

residual fuel oil 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Coal 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Total 

TABLE 15. 

50-100 

407 

407 

444 

521 

128 

128 

91 

14 

535 

1990 PROJECTED BOILER TYPES 

(number 

100-150 

196 

198 

199 

204 

26 

24 

23 

18 

222 

of 

Bounits) iler Size 

150-200 

96 

78 

106 

112 

38 

56 

28 

22 

134 

(MMBtu/hr) 

200-250 

8 

23 

25 

28 

43 

28 

26 

23 

51 

>250 

77 

77 

77 

79 

53 

53 

53 

51 

130 

, 

Total 

785 

783 

851 

944 

287 

289 

221 

128 

1,072 

17 
P.23 

TABLE 16. 1990 PROJECTED FOSSIL FUEL DEMAND 

(lO1^ Btu) 

Fuel Type 

Natural gas 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Residual fuel oil 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Coal 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Total 

50-100 

32.8 

76.7 

90.8 

123.1 

43.6 

--

— 

--

53.2 

52.8 

38.7 

6.4 

129.5 

100-150 

43.6 

92.5 

93.3 

96.5 

47.3 

— 

— 

--

18.1 

16.4 

15.6 

12.5 

109.0 

Boiler Size 

150-200 

28.6 

52.9 

80.9 

85.1 

44.1 

--

— 

— 

36.0 

55.8 

27.7 

23.6 

108.7 

(MMBtu/hr) 

200-250 

5.9 

21.1 

23.3 

26.2 

2.7 

--

— 

— 

47.0 

33.9 

31.7 

28.9 

55.1 

>250 

71.3 

71.3 

71.3 

73.9 

--

--

— 

— 

99.8 

99.8 

99.8 

97.2 

171.1 

Total 

182.2 

314.6 

359.7 

404.8 

137.2 

--

--

— 

254.1 

258.8 

213.6 

168.6 

573.4 

18 
P.24 

TABLE 17. 1990 PROJECTED COSTS 

(millions, $1982) 

Boiler Size (MMBtu/hr) 

Fuel Type 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 >250 Total 

__ 

Total annualized costs <g 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

1,149 

1,163 

1,184 

1,202 

895 

914 

917 

920 

842 

849 

866 

870 

413 

418 

421 

424 

1,374 4,574 

1,274 4,618 

1,274 4,662 

1,280 4,696 

77 : 

'Boiler and pollution control equipment capital and O&M, plus fuel costs. 

19 
P.25 

TABLE 18. 1995 PROJECTED AIR EMISSIONS 

(IO3 short-tons) 

Pollutant 

so2 

PM 

NO,, 

X 

P M 10 

Base Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Base Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Base Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Base Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

Option Case 

1 

2 

3 

1 

2 

3 

1 

2 

3 

1 

2 

3 

50-100 

231.8 

80.8 

49.5 

6.3 

17.0 

11.9 

10.3 

1.8 

46.4 

44.5 

41.9 

29.4 

14.9 

9.8 

8.5 

1.8 

100-150 

193.1 

36.2 

24.8 

11.1 

1Q.2 

2.2 

2.1 

2.0 

34.3 

31.1 

30.7 

28.7 

10.2 

2.2 

2.1 

2.0 

Boiler 

150-200 

245.0 

104.2 

59.7 

24.4 

9.3 

4.2 

4.3 

3.5 

47.3 

48.9 

42.7 

38.6 

9.2 

4.2 

4.3 

3.5 

Size (MMBtu/h 

200-250 

145.6 

75.6 

41.9 

20.2 

3.1 

2.7 

3.2 

3.1 

31.7 

29.3 

26.7 

25.4 

3.1 

2.7 

3.2 

3.1 

r) 

>250 

128.5 

128.5 

128.5 

54.9 

11.0 

11.0 

11.0 

11.8 

80.5 

80.5 

80.5 

78.8 

11.0 

11.0 

11.0 

11.8 

Total 

944.1 

425.3 

304.4 

106.9 

50.7 

32.0 

30.9 

22.2 

240.2 

234.3 

222.5 

200.9 

48.5 

29.9 

29.1 

22.2 

20 
* 

- '''' . \ 

Fuel Type 

Natural gas/ 

residual fuel oil 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Coal 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Total 

TABLE 19. 

50-100 

824 

828 

872 

1,071 

299 

295 

251 

52 

1,123 

1995 PROJECTED BOILER TYPES 

(number 

100-150 

397 

411 

414 

429 

84 

70 

67 

52 

481 

of 

Bounits) iler Size 

150-200 

133 

131 

159 

195 

150 

152 

124 

88 

283 

(MMBtu/hr) 

200-250 

11 

27 

45 

50 

100 

84 

66 

61 

111 

>250 

149 

149 

149 

151 

124 

124 

124 

122 

273 

Total 

1,514 

1,546 

1,639 

1,896 

757 

725 

632 

375 

2,271 

P.26 

21 
P.27 

' . '' "''"'• ' TABLE 20. 

Fuel Type 

Natural gas 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Residual fuel oil 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Coal 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

Total 

50-100 

88.6 

149.0 

165.9 

246.2 

58.9 

--

--

— 

122.5 

121.0 

104.1 

23.8 

270.0 

1995 PROJEC 

(10h 

100-150 

96.2 

185.3 

187.8 

198.5 

82.3 

--

--

— 

57.1 

50.5 

48.0 

37.3 

235.8 

TED FOSSIL 

Btu) 

Boiler Size 

150-200 

39.3 

87.5 

115.5 

140.3 

56.9 

--

— 

— 

132.8 

141.5 

113.4 

88.6 

229.0 

FUEL DEMAND 

(MMBtu/hr) 

200-250 

8.1 

25.5 

41.9 

46.5 

3.3 

--

— 

--

108.8 

84.6 

78.2 

73.6 

120.1 

>250 

134.5 

134.5 

134.5 

137.1 

— 

— 

--

— 

228.0 

228.0 

228.0 

225.5 

362.6 

i 

Total 

366.7 

581.8 

645.6 

768.6 

201.5 

--

--

— 

649.1 

635.6 

571.8 

448.8 

1,217.5 

22 
P.28 

,fr'r\ ' TABLE 21. 1995 PROJECTED COSTS 

(millions, $1982) 

Boiler Size (MMBtu/hr) 

Fuel Type 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 >250 Total 

Total annualized costs3' 

Base Case 

Option Case 1 

Option Case 2 

Option Case 3 

2,457 

2,488 

2,524 

2,574 

1,994 

2,030 

2,036 

2,046 

1,805 

1,830 

1,854 

1,872 

910 

925 

936 

944 

2,760 

2,760 

2,760 

2,773 

9,928 

10,033 

10,110 

10,209 

__ 

'Boiler, pollution control equipment and fuel costs. 

23