Climate Change Science Activities of the 

U.S. Geological Survey in New England

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has actively pursued research in the effects of climate change on the hydrology of New 

England. Ongoing focus areas of climate change science activities of the USGS in New England include the following:

• Hydrologic climate-response data collection (initiating or expanding long-term hydrologic climate-response data collection 

networks to detect and monitor climate-related changes in hydrology)

• Relations between historical climatic and hydrologic variation (investigating historic relations between long-term climatic 

variation and hydrologic variation and connecting these relations to future conditions as forecasted by the Interagency 

Panel on Climate Change [Nakićenović and others, 2000])

• Hydrologic change on natural and human systems (incorporating climate change scenarios into assessments of how flows 

in streams or water levels in aquifers may change)

• Relations between climatic and hydrologic variation (characterizing impacts of climate change on floods and droughts, the 

long-term availability of water supplies for societal and natural uses in response to climate changes)

• Developing tools to forecast ecosystem change and water resources management (developing regionally consistent tools 

for forecasting ecosystem change and resource management)

This fact sheet presents recent climate change investigations of the USGS in New England using selected recent publications. 

These publications highlight the broad spectrum of expertise and commitment to understanding the relations of climate change 

and water resources in New England.

Hydrologic Climate-Response Data Collection

The USGS has expanded existing hydrologic data collection 

networks to address current and future water information needs 

related to climate change. Recent activities include installation 

of new data-collection stations to improve ambient monitoring, 

monitoring of additional parameters, such as water temperature, 

at critical locations, and collaboration with other Federal and 

State agencies and universities in climate-related activities at 

USGS data-collection stations.

Framework for a Hydrologic Climate-Response Network 

in New England

Many climate-related hydrologic 

variables in New England have 

changed in the past century and are 

expected to continue to change in 

the coming years. It is important to 

understand and monitor changes in 

hydrologic variables because they 

can affect human water supply, 

hydroelectric power generation, 

transportation infrastructure, and 

stream and riparian ecology. The 

framework identifies specific inland 

hydrologic variables that are sensitive 

to climate variation, geographic regions with similar hydrologic 

responses, and drainage basins for intensive, process-based 

studies and for estimates of future hydrologic conditions and 

proposes a fixed-station monitoring network composed of existing 

streamflow, groundwater, lake ice, snowpack, and meteorological 

data-collection networks stations for evaluation of hydrologic 

response to climate variation. Publication at 

http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20151062.

NorEaST Stream Temperature

The NorEaST Web portal 

(https://necsc.umass.edu/

projects/noreast-%E2%80%93-

stream-temperature-web-portaldemonstration-and-application) was 

developed to serve as a coordinated 

multiagency regional framework to 

map and store continuous stream 

temperature locations and data 

for States in New England and 

the mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes 

regions. Stream temperature data and metadata, contributed 

by 41 different organizations, can be viewed for nearly 7,900 

monitoring station across 22 States. The objectives of the project 

are to identify common data fields and structures that are state-ofthe-art for maintaining water-quality data, conduct user testing to 

refine the Web portal for data access and management purposes, 

and develop and apply models to demonstrate the utility of large 

scale, consistent stream temperature data in decision making. 

The common data fields and structures are used to build a data 

template and framework to store incoming stream temperature 

data, build Web services to output these standards, and format 

select datasets to demonstrate applications of these data.

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey Printed on recycled paper Fact Sheet 2016–3011March 2016
Relations Between Historical Climatic and 

Hydrologic Variation

The USGS has completed numerous studies to evaluate 

the relation between of long-term climatic and hydrologic 

variation; trends in streamflow regimes, groundwater levels, and 

climatological variables are evaluated to determine the important 

processes controlling hydrologic response to climate change.

Effects of Climate Change on Snowmelt-Dominated

Groundwater Resources of Northern New England

Northern New England 

(Maine, New Hampshire, and 

Vermont) is an ideal region to 

monitor the effects of climate 

change on groundwater resources 

because water resources in the 

region are dominated by snowmelt hydrology and the region is 

largely undeveloped, thus effects 

from water use on groundwater 

are limited. Analyses of historical snowpack and streamflow data 

in northern New England have 

demonstrated that snowpack, snowmelt runoff, and summer base 

flows have changed substantially during the last 100 years. This 

project examined interannual correlations between the historical 

groundwater levels across northern New England and seasonal 

air temperatures and precipitation to define the sensitivity of 

groundwater levels to these variables. Publication at

http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/fs20103104.

Historical Changes in Annual 

Peak Flows in Maine

There is evidence that peak 

flows on rivers in Maine have 

increased during the past 50 years, 

and bridges and culverts could 

therefore be currently underdesigned. 

In a cooperative project with the 

Maine Department of Transportation, 

maximum annual streamflow-trend 

magnitudes were investigated for 

28 stream gages in Maine that had 

at least 50 years of data. Peak flows 

for selected recurrence intervals are sensitive to very high peak 

flows that may occur once in a century or even less frequently. 

Therefore, it is difficult to determine which approach will produce 

the most reliable future estimates of peak flows for selected 

recurrence intervals—using only recent years of record or the 

traditional method using the entire historical period. One possible 

conservative approach to computing peak flows of selected 

recurrence intervals would be to compute peak flows using recent 

annual peak flows and the entire period of record and then choose 

the higher computed value. Publication at

http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20105094.

Hydrologic Change on Natural and Human Systems

Collection and analysis of field data have been used to 

understand the relation between hydroclimatological change and 

critical societal issues, including floods, droughts, ecosystem 

health, water quality, and urban environments.

Predicting Inundation of Salt Marshes in Response to SeaLevel Rise in and Around Acadia National Park

Recent USGS climate studies 

in the northeastern United States 

have shown substantial evidence 

of climate-related changes during 

the past 100 years, including 

snowmelt runoff occurring earlier 

in the year, decreasing occurrence 

of river ice, and decreasing winter 

snowpack. These climate changerelated studies are being expanded 

to include investigation of coastal 

wetlands that might be at risk from 

sea-level rise. Coastal wetlands, 

particularly salt marshes, are important ecosystems that provide 

habitats for wildlife nursery and breeding and for migratory 

birds, enhancements to water quality, and control measures 

against shoreline erosion. The USGS investigated salt marshes 

in Acadia National Park with the goal of determining which 

salt marshes may be threatened by sea-level rise and which salt 

marshes may be able to adapt to sea-level rise by migrating into 

adjacent low-lying lands. Publication at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/

publication/sir20125290.

Effects of Ground-Water Pumping and Sea-Level Change, 

Lower Cape Cod Aquifer System

The USGS conducted an 

investigation to improve the 

understanding of the hydrogeology of the four freshwater lenses 

of the lower Cape Cod aquifer 

system and to assess the effects of 

changing groundwater pumping, 

recharge conditions, and sea level 

on groundwater flow in lower Cape 

Cod, Massachusetts. The depth to 

the freshwater-saltwater interface 

varies throughout the study area 

and is directly proportional to the 

height of the water table above sea level. Simulated increases 

in sea level appear to increase water levels and streamflows 

throughout the lower Cape Cod aquifer system, and yet decrease 

the depth to the freshwater-saltwater interface. Publication at

http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20045014. An ongoing 

study in cooperation with the Cape Cod Commission is running 

additional modeling of sea-level rise effects on aquifers on Cape 

Cod. 
Relations Between Climatic and Hydrologic Variation

Numerical modeling, including the Precipitation Runoff 

Modeling System and the three-dimensional finite-difference 

groundwater model MODFLOW, in conjunction with USGS 

long-term data and field-based studies, were used to evaluate the 

effects of forecasted changes in precipitation and temperature on 

hydrologic systems in New England.

Hydrologic Vulnerability to Climate Change in 

New Hampshire

The State of New Hampshire 

has initiated a coordinated effort to 

proactively prepare for the effects 

of climate change on natural and 

human resources. An important 

aspect of this effort has been to 

develop a vulnerability assessment of hydrologic response to 

climate change. The study was a 

test case to assemble the information and create the tools to assess 

the hydrologic vulnerabilities in 

the watersheds of the Ashuelot, 

Oyster, Pemigewasset, and Souhegan Rivers in New Hampshire 

in the 21st century; the study simulated streamflow, groundwater base flow, and snowfall in the four watersheds. Simulations 

show that, on average, relative to current conditions, streamflow 

is likely to increase and base flow is likely to decrease, although 

this change is highly variable by geographic location and season. 

Streamflow variability will likely increase in response to climate 

change, with more high streamflows and more low streamflows. 

The largest increases in streamflow are in the winter, with small 

decreases in summer. Change in base flow varies across the 

State, with the largest change being in the northern Pemigewasset watershed. Changes in snowfall are consistently decreasing 

for all watersheds on average, with the largest change also in 

the Pemigewasset. However, monthly snowfall totals during 

any given winter could be higher in the future than expected 

under current conditions. Publication at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/

publication/sir20155047. An ongoing study is expanding this test 

case statewide.

Effects of Climate Change on Groundwater Systems 

in Rhode Island

Soil-water balance and 

groundwater-flow models were 

developed to delineate the areas that 

contribute recharge to water-supply 

wells and to quantify the hydrologic 

response of the groundwaterflow system to projected 21st 

century changes in temperature 

and precipitation in the Chipuxet 

and Chickasheen River basins in 

southern Rhode Island; climate 

projections were obtained from 

downscaled general circulation 

models (Nakićenović and others, 2000). In the case of carbon 

emissions that continue to increase into the 21st century, winter 

groundwater recharge is expected to increase by as much as 15 

percent for the higher emissions scenario, and fall groundwater 

recharge is projected to diminish by as much as 24 percent. 

Although recharge is projected to change seasonally in the 

21st century, mean annual recharge is expected to change only 

minimally. Publication at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/

sir20145216.

Developing Tools for Forecasting Ecosystem Change 

and Water Resources Management

The USGS uses statistical and deterministic models 

to model and forecast seasonal and long-term change. 

Representative models are used for evaluation and short- and 

long-term forecasting of the effects of climate change on 

hydrologic systems to evaluate the effects of water use on 

water, apply hydrologic knowledge to improve existing or new 

biological population and survival models, and help emergency 

management agencies develop emergency response plans.

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A 

Decision-Support Tool To Assess Water Availability at 

Ungaged Streams in Massachusetts

Water-resource managers at the Federal, State, and local 

levels require a variety of data and modeling tools to better 

understand water resources. The USGS, in cooperation with the 

Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has 

developed a statewide interactive decision-support tool to meet 

this need. The decision-support tool, referred to as the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) provides 

screening-level estimates of the sustainable yield of a basin; 

sustainable yield is defined as the 

difference between the unregulated 

streamflow and some user-specified 

quantity of water that must remain 

in the stream to support such functions as recreational activities or 

aquatic habitat. The MA SYE tool 

was designed, in part, because the 

quantity of surface water available in a basin is a time-variable 

quantity subject to competing 

demands for water. Publication at 

http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/

sir20095227. The USGS, in cooperation with the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, is developing a 

new version of the MA SYE.
Reference Cited

Nakićenović, Nebojša, Alcamo, Joseph, Davis, Gerald, de Vries, 

Bert, Fenhann, Joergen, Gaffin, Stuart, Gregory, Kenneth, 

Grübler, Arnulf, Jung, T.Y., Kram, Tom, La Rovere, E.L., 

Michaelis, Laurie, Mori, Shunsuke, Morita, Tsuneyuki, Pepper, 

William, Pitcher, Hugh, Price, Lynn, Riahi, Keywan, Roehrl, 

Alexander, Rogner, H.H., Sankovski, Alexei, Schlesinger, 

Michael, Shukla, Priyararshi, Smith, Steven, Swart, Robert, van 

Rooijen, Sascha, Victor, Nadejda, and Zhou Dadi, 2000, Special 

report on emissions scenarios; A special report of Working 

Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 

Cambridge, United Kingdom, Cambridge University Press, 599 

p. [Also available at http://www.grida.no/publications/other/

ipcc%5Fsr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm.]

Cold temperatures after a rain event caused an ice layer to form 

on Libby Brook near Northfield, Maine, and the ice layer remained 

as water levels dropped in February 2005. Photograph by the 

U.S. Geological Survey.

U.S. Geological Survey scientist measures groundwater levels with 

a steel tape to check the accuracy of an automated water-level 

measurement system at Mirror Lake groundwater-research site 

within the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in North Woodstock, 

New Hampshire. Photograph by the U.S. Geological Survey.

For more information, contact:

Director, New England Water Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey

331 Commerce Way, Suite 2

Pembroke, NH 03275

Email: dc_nweng@usgs.gov

or visit our Web site at

http://newengland.water.usgs.gov/

Photograph from the National Park Service

ISSN 2327-6916 (print)

ISSN 2327-6932 (online)

http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs20163011