ki I

Jim McMahon

JEMcMahon@lbl.gov

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

U SDOE Public Workshop

March 11, 1997

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 84

Manufacturer Impact Analysis: II Jssues .J ShlJ.! t F--- t In ._~ 'Jlpmlen,s r orecas IS 

Jim McMahon 

JEMcMahon @ Ibl.gov 

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

USDOE Public Workshop 

March 11, 1997 
Projected shipments of appliances and lighting equipment

are necessary inputs to the manufacturer impact analysis

• A variety of approaches are possible

- Constant shipments at current (or projected) level

- Extrapolation of historical trend

- More detailed forecasting models

® Forecasting models can account for expectations about

- Demographics

- Economics and market behavior

- Engineering

- Other policies and programs

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 84

Ro~e of Forecasting Models 

• Projected shipments of appliances and lighting equipment 

are necessary inputs to the manufacturer impact analysis 

• A variety of approaches are possible 

- Constant shipments at current (or projected) level 

- Extrapolation of historical trend 

- More detailed forecasting models 

• Forecasting models can account for expectations about 

- Demographics 

- Economics and market behavior 

Engineering 

- Other policies and programs 
• Replacement of existing equipment

• New construction: number of households, or

floor area of commercial buildings (by type)

• Competition among fuels or technologies

• Other market and regulatory factors

information/education (e.g., EPA Green Lights)

- incentives (e.g., utility loan or rebate programs)

- building codes

• Price of appliances or equipment

\8

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 84

Wh t d t

-, ~J h~ t ? lyra c' •• rmlnes sJJlpm.n1s~" ~ 

• Replacement of existing equipment 

• New construction: number of households, or 

floor area of commercial buildings (by type) 

• Competition among fuels or technologies 

• Other market and regulatory factors 

- information/education (e.g., EPA Green Lights) 

- incentives (e.g., utility loan or rebate programs) 

- building codes 

• Price of appliances or equipment 

rOfJrarn 
1, fare Y

• Stock Turnover- historical shipments and a lifetime (or

probability of retirement as a function of age) are used to

estimate numbers of appliances retiring each year

® Fuel Choice - future consumer decisions are simulated

based upon parameters consistent with past behaviors,

and projections of driving factors (equipment and energy

prices, income)

® Technology Choice - simulated using explicit lists of

discrete technologies, each having a price and energy

performance . In standards cases, the lists are truncated.

® Usage Behavior - changes in behavior in response to

changes in operating expense are simulated, where

appropriate (e.g., space conditioning).

N"A

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 84

What· forecasting models do 

• Stock Turnover - historical shipments and a lifetime (or 

probability of retirement as a function of age) are used to 

estimate numbers of appliances retiring each year 

• Fuel Choice - future consumer decisions are simulated 

based upon parameters consistent with past behaviors, 

and projections of driving factors (equipment and energy 

prices, income) 

• Technology Choice - simulated using explicit lists of 

discrete technologies, each having a price and energy 

performance. In standards cases, the lists ~re truncated. 

• Usage Behavior - chang~s in behavior in response to 

changes in operating expense are simulated, where 

appropriate (e.g., space conditioning). 
• RESIDENTIAL

- EIA National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

- LBNL Residential Energy Model (REM)

- EPRI Residential End-use Energy Planning System

(REEPS)

- LBNL spreadsheet (under development)

• COMMERCIAL

- EIA National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

- EPRI commercial sector end-use planning system

(COMMEND)

- LBNL spreadsheet (under development)

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 84

• RESIDENTIAL 

- EIA National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) 

- LBNL Residential Energy Model (REM) 

-' ,EPRI Residential End-use Energy Planning System 

(REEPS) 

- LBNL spreadsheet (under development) 

• COMMERCIAL 

- EIA National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) 

- EPRI commercial sector end-use planning system 

(COMMEND) 

- LBNL spreadsheet (under development) 

rEtrn 
• REM (18 years) USDOE Codes and Standards

(public domain)

• REEPS (15 years) EPRI and member utilities

(private)

• COMMEND (12 years) EPRI and utilities (private)

• NEMS (4 years) EIA Annual Energy Outlook

(public)

Spreadsheet (under development) (public)

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 84

• REM (18 years) USDOE Codes and Standards 

(public domain) 

• REEPS (15 years) EPRI and member utilities 

(private) 

• COMMEND (12 years) EPRI and utilities (private) 

• NEMS (4 years) EIA Annual Energy Outlook 

(public) . 

• Spreadsheet (under development)(public) 

!! IS rarn 
• REM -workstation (FORTRAN)

- personal computer version possible

BEEPS, COMMEND - personal computer

• HEMS - mainframe with specific math package

- personal computer version no longer

, supported

• spreadsheet - personal computer

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 84

• REM - workstation (FORTRAN) 

- personal computer version possible 

• REEPS, COMMEND - personal computer 

• NEMS - mainframe with specific math package 

- personal computer version no longer supported 

• spreadsheet - personal computer 

" ", < '- ," :;: ~': '. I; 
R

• Make models as simple as possible

• Make copies of models more accessible

on World Wide Web

through USDOE or contractor

• Develop detailed documentation

• conduct training Workshops

central location, on-site, or videoconference

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 84

Id as for eliminating 

"black. boxes")'· 

• Make models as simple as possible 

• Make copies of models more accessible 

- on World Wide Web 

- through USDOE or contractor 

• Develop. detailed documentation 

• Conduct training workshops 

- central location, on-site, or videoconference 

L:n 
Un

• Identify key uncertainties

• Estimate ranges rather than point values

• Express output as ranges

• Conduct scenario ("what-if") analysis

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 84

• Identify key uncertainties 

• Estimate ranges rather than point values 

• Express output as ranges 

• Conduct scenario ("what-if") .analysis